Science.gov

Sample records for added risk approach

  1. Approaches to acceptable risk

    SciTech Connect

    Whipple, C.

    1997-04-30

    Several alternative approaches to address the question {open_quotes}How safe is safe enough?{close_quotes} are reviewed and an attempt is made to apply the reasoning behind these approaches to the issue of acceptability of radiation exposures received in space. The approaches to the issue of the acceptability of technological risk described here are primarily analytical, and are drawn from examples in the management of environmental health risks. These include risk-based approaches, in which specific quantitative risk targets determine the acceptability of an activity, and cost-benefit and decision analysis, which generally focus on the estimation and evaluation of risks, benefits and costs, in a framework that balances these factors against each other. These analytical methods tend by their quantitative nature to emphasize the magnitude of risks, costs and alternatives, and to downplay other factors, especially those that are not easily expressed in quantitative terms, that affect acceptance or rejection of risk. Such other factors include the issues of risk perceptions and how and by whom risk decisions are made.

  2. Measuring the Value Added of Management: A Knowledge Value Added Approach

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-04-30

    Value Added Approach Presenter: Dr. Thomas J. Housel specializes in valuing intellectual capital , telecommunications, information technology, value...Value-Added methodology for objectively measuring the return generated by corporate knowledge assets/ intellectual capital . He received his PhD...measuring the value of intellectual capital has been featured in a Fortune cover story (October 3, 1994) and Investor’s Business Daily, numerous books

  3. Exploring the bulk in AdS /CFT : A covariant approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engelhardt, Netta

    2017-03-01

    I propose a general, covariant way of defining when one region is "deeper in the bulk" than another. This definition is formulated outside of an event horizon (or in the absence thereof) in generic geometries; it may be applied to both points and surfaces, and it may be used to compare the depth of bulk points or surfaces relative to a particular boundary subregion or relative to the entire boundary. Using the recently proposed "light-cone cut" formalism, the comparative depth between two bulk points can be determined from the singularity structure of Lorentzian correlators in the dual field theory. I prove that, by this definition, causal wedges of progressively larger regions probe monotonically deeper in the bulk. The definition furthermore matches expectations in pure AdS and in static AdS black holes with isotropic spatial slices, where a well-defined holographic coordinate exists. In terms of holographic renormalization group flow, this new definition of bulk depth makes contact with coarse graining over both large distances and long time scales.

  4. The Principal Axis Approach to Value-Added Calculation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    He, Qingping; Tymms, Peter

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of the achievement of students and the quality of schools has drawn increasing attention from educational researchers, policy makers, and practitioners. Various test-based accountability and feedback systems involving the use of value-added techniques have been developed for evaluating the effectiveness of individual teaching…

  5. Adding insult to injury: Exacerbating TB risk with smoking

    PubMed Central

    Glickman, Michael S.; Schluger, Neil

    2016-01-01

    Inhaled environmental pollutants, most prominently from cigarettes, confer an increased risk of tuberculosis. A recent study published in Cell by Berg, Levitte, et al., (2016) using the zebrafish model of Mycobacterium marinum infection provides new insights into the role of macrophage lysosomal engorgement in compromising host defense against mycobacteria. PMID:27078065

  6. Distributed Reinforcement Learning Approach for Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Celimuge; Kumekawa, Kazuya; Kato, Toshihiko

    In Vehicular Ad hoc Networks (VANETs), general purpose ad hoc routing protocols such as AODV cannot work efficiently due to the frequent changes in network topology caused by vehicle movement. This paper proposes a VANET routing protocol QLAODV (Q-Learning AODV) which suits unicast applications in high mobility scenarios. QLAODV is a distributed reinforcement learning routing protocol, which uses a Q-Learning algorithm to infer network state information and uses unicast control packets to check the path availability in a real time manner in order to allow Q-Learning to work efficiently in a highly dynamic network environment. QLAODV is favored by its dynamic route change mechanism, which makes it capable of reacting quickly to network topology changes. We present an analysis of the performance of QLAODV by simulation using different mobility models. The simulation results show that QLAODV can efficiently handle unicast applications in VANETs.

  7. Vascular risk and Aβ interact to reduce cortical thickness in AD vulnerable brain regions

    PubMed Central

    Reed, Bruce R.; Madison, Cindee M.; Wirth, Miranka; Marchant, Natalie L.; Kriger, Stephen; Mack, Wendy J.; Sanossian, Nerses; DeCarli, Charles; Chui, Helena C.; Weiner, Michael W.; Jagust, William J.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: The objective of this study was to define whether vascular risk factors interact with β-amyloid (Aβ) in producing changes in brain structure that could underlie the increased risk of Alzheimer disease (AD). Methods: Sixty-six cognitively normal and mildly impaired older individuals with a wide range of vascular risk factors were included in this study. The presence of Aβ was assessed using [11C]Pittsburgh compound B–PET imaging, and cortical thickness was measured using 3-tesla MRI. Vascular risk was measured with the Framingham Coronary Risk Profile Index. Results: Individuals with high levels of vascular risk factors have thinner frontotemporal cortex independent of Aβ. These frontotemporal regions are also affected in individuals with Aβ deposition, but the latter show additional thinning in parietal cortices. Aβ and vascular risk were found to interact in posterior (especially in parietal) brain regions, where Aβ has its greatest effect. In this way, the negative effect of Aβ in posterior regions is increased by the presence of vascular risk. Conclusion: Aβ and vascular risk interact to enhance cortical thinning in posterior brain regions that are particularly vulnerable to AD. These findings give insight concerning the mechanisms whereby vascular risk increases the likelihood of developing AD and supports the therapeutic intervention of controlling vascular risk for the prevention of AD. PMID:24907234

  8. Interpreting incremental value of markers added to risk prediction models.

    PubMed

    Pencina, Michael J; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Pencina, Karol M; Janssens, A Cecile J W; Greenland, Philip

    2012-09-15

    The discrimination of a risk prediction model measures that model's ability to distinguish between subjects with and without events. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is a popular measure of discrimination. However, the AUC has recently been criticized for its insensitivity in model comparisons in which the baseline model has performed well. Thus, 2 other measures have been proposed to capture improvement in discrimination for nested models: the integrated discrimination improvement and the continuous net reclassification improvement. In the present study, the authors use mathematical relations and numerical simulations to quantify the improvement in discrimination offered by candidate markers of different strengths as measured by their effect sizes. They demonstrate that the increase in the AUC depends on the strength of the baseline model, which is true to a lesser degree for the integrated discrimination improvement. On the other hand, the continuous net reclassification improvement depends only on the effect size of the candidate variable and its correlation with other predictors. These measures are illustrated using the Framingham model for incident atrial fibrillation. The authors conclude that the increase in the AUC, integrated discrimination improvement, and net reclassification improvement offer complementary information and thus recommend reporting all 3 alongside measures characterizing the performance of the final model.

  9. Risk Assessment: A Quantitative Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baert, K.; Francois, K.; de Meulenaer, B.; Devlieghere, F.

    A risk can be defined as a function of the probability of an adverse health effect and the severity of that effect, consequential to a hazard in food (Codex Alimentarius, 1999) . During a risk assessment, an estimate of the risk is obtained. The goal is to estimate the likelihood and the extent of adverse effects occurring to humans due to possible exposure(s) to hazards. Risk assessment is a scientifically based process consisting of the following steps: (1) hazard identification, (2) hazard characterization, (3) exposure assessment and (4) and risk characterization (Codex Alimentarius, 1999).

  10. Neurosonological Examination: A Non-Invasive Approach for the Detection of Cerebrovascular Impairment in AD

    PubMed Central

    Urbanova, Barbora; Tomek, Ales; Mikulik, Robert; Magerova, Hana; Horinek, Daniel; Hort, Jakub

    2014-01-01

    There has been a growing interest in vascular impairment associated with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). This interest was stimulated by the findings of higher incidence of vascular risk factors in AD. Signs of vascular impairment were investigated notably in the field of imaging methods. Our aim was to explore ultrasonographic studies of extra- and intracranial vessels in patients with AD and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and define implications for diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of the disease. The most frequently studied parameters with extracranial ultrasound are intima-media thickness in common carotid artery, carotid atherosclerosis, and total cerebral blood flow. The transcranial ultrasound concentrates mostly on flow velocities, pulsatility indices, cerebrovascular reserve capacity, and cerebral microembolization. Studies suggest that there is morphological and functional impairment of cerebral circulation in AD compared to healthy subjects. Ultrasound as a non-invasive method could be potentially useful in identifying individuals in a higher risk of progression of cognitive decline. PMID:24478651

  11. APPROACHES FOR INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recognizing the need to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of risk assessments globally, the WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the European Commission, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development form...

  12. Stakeholder opinions on the use of the added value approach in siting radioactive waste management facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Kojo, Matti; Richardson, Phil

    2013-07-01

    In some countries nuclear waste facility siting programs include social and economic benefits, compensation, local empowerment and motivation measures and other incentives for the potential host community. This can generally be referred to as an 'added value approach'. Demonstration of the safety of a repository is seen as a precondition of an added value approach. Recently much focus has been placed on studying and developing public participation approaches but less on the use of such incentive and community benefit packages, although they are becoming a more common element in many site selection strategies for nuclear waste management facilities. The primary objective of this paper is to report on an ongoing study of stakeholders' opinions of the use of an added value approach in siting a radioactive waste facility in the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia. The paper argues that an added value approach should adapt to the interests and needs of stakeholders during different stages of a siting process. The main question posed in the study is as follows: What are the measures which should be included in 'added value approach' according to the stakeholders? The research data consists of stakeholders' responses to a survey focusing on the use of added value (community benefits) and incentives in siting nuclear waste management facilities. The survey involved use of a questionnaire developed as part of the EU-funded IPPA* project in three countries: the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia. (* Implementing Public Participation Approaches in Radioactive Waste Disposal, FP7 Contract Number: 269849). The target audiences for the questionnaires were the stakeholders represented in the national stakeholder groups established to discuss site selection for a nuclear waste repository in their country. A total of 105 questionnaires were sent to the stakeholders between November 2011 and January 2012. 44 questionnaires were returned, resulting in a total response rate of 41

  13. Probabilistic Approaches for Evaluating Space Shuttle Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vesely, William

    2001-01-01

    The objectives of the Space Shuttle PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) are to: (1) evaluate mission risks; (2) evaluate uncertainties and sensitivities; (3) prioritize contributors; (4) evaluate upgrades; (5) track risks; and (6) provide decision tools. This report discusses the significance of a Space Shuttle PRA and its participants. The elements and type of losses to be included are discussed. The program and probabilistic approaches are then discussed.

  14. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    PubMed

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates.

  15. Relationship between Added Sugars Consumption and Chronic Disease Risk Factors: Current Understanding

    PubMed Central

    Rippe, James M.; Angelopoulos, Theodore J.

    2016-01-01

    Added sugars are a controversial and hotly debated topic. Consumption of added sugars has been implicated in increased risk of a variety of chronic diseases including obesity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) as well as cognitive decline and even some cancers. Support for these putative associations has been challenged, however, on a variety of fronts. The purpose of the current review is to summarize high impact evidence including systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and randomized controlled trials (RCTs), in an attempt to provide an overview of current evidence related to added sugars and health considerations. This paper is an extension of a symposium held at the Experimental Biology 2015 conference entitled “Sweeteners and Health: Current Understandings, Controversies, Recent Research Findings and Directions for Future Research”. We conclude based on high quality evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCT), systematic reviews and meta-analyses of cohort studies that singling out added sugars as unique culprits for metabolically based diseases such as obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease appears inconsistent with modern, high quality evidence and is very unlikely to yield health benefits. While it is prudent to consume added sugars in moderation, the reduction of these components of the diet without other reductions of caloric sources seems unlikely to achieve any meaningful benefit. PMID:27827899

  16. Individual Differences in Approach and Avoidance Inclinations Moderate the Effect of Self-Control Depletion on Ad-Lib Drinking

    PubMed Central

    Schlauch, Robert C.; Christensen, Rita L.; Derrick, Jaye L.; Crane, Cory A.; Collins, R. Lorraine

    2015-01-01

    Background The current study sought to examine how exerting self-control to inhibit stereotype use affects alcohol consumption. In addition, we sought to expand previous findings via examination of how individual differences in motivations to approach or avoid alcohol consumption interact with self-control depletion to determine the regulation of ad-lib drinking behavior. Methods Sixty-one social drinkers (31 female) were recruited to participate in a socially relevant self-control depletion task in which they were randomly assigned to one of two creative writing conditions: 1) the self-control depletion condition with explicit instructions to refrain from using stereotypes, or 2) the non-depletion condition in which no instructions were given regarding the use of stereotypes. Participants then completed an ad-lib drinking task and self-report questionnaires pertaining to their motivation to consume alcohol. Results As predicted, results indicated a significant three-way interaction between depletion condition, approach inclinations, and avoidance inclinations. Specifically, self-control depletion predicted greater drinking disinhibition (i.e., mean sip size, total alcohol consumption) only among participants high in both approach and avoidance. Conclusions Taken together, results from the current study highlight the importance of both approach and avoidance inclinations in the failure to regulate alcohol consumption following a routine, socially relevant form of self-control depletion. Our results also suggest that the high approach / high avoidance motivational profile may predict the greatest risk among those actively trying to regulate their drinking. PMID:26756800

  17. Using a 'value-added' approach for contextual design of geographic information.

    PubMed

    May, Andrew J

    2013-11-01

    The aim of this article is to demonstrate how a 'value-added' approach can be used for user-centred design of geographic information. An information science perspective was used, with value being the difference in outcomes arising from alternative information sets. Sixteen drivers navigated a complex, unfamiliar urban route, using visual and verbal instructions representing the distance-to-turn and junction layout information presented by typical satellite navigation systems. Data measuring driving errors, navigation errors and driver confidence were collected throughout the trial. The results show how driver performance varied considerably according to the geographic context at specific locations, and that there are specific opportunities to add value with enhanced geographical information. The conclusions are that a value-added approach facilitates a more explicit focus on 'desired' (and feasible) levels of end user performance with different information sets, and is a potentially effective approach to user-centred design of geographic information.

  18. New insights on the risk for cardiovascular disease in African Americans: the role of added sugars.

    PubMed

    Saab, Karim R; Kendrick, Jessica; Yracheta, Joseph M; Lanaspa, Miguel A; Pollard, Maisha; Johnson, Richard J

    2015-02-01

    African Americans are at increased risk for cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, including obesity, high BP, diabetes, CKD, myocardial infarction, and stroke. Here we summarize the current risks and provide an overview of the underlying risk factors that may account for these associations. By reviewing the relationship between cardiovascular and renal diseases and the African-American population during the early 20th century, the historic and recent associations of African heritage with cardiovascular disease, and modern population genetics, it is possible to assemble strong hypotheses for the primary underlying mechanisms driving the increased frequency of disease in African Americans. Our studies suggest that underlying genetic mechanisms may be responsible for the increased frequency of high BP and kidney disease in African Americans, with particular emphasis on the role of APOL1 polymorphisms in causing kidney disease. In contrast, the Western diet, particularly the relatively high intake of fructose-containing sugars and sweetened beverages, appears to be the dominant force driving the increased risk of diabetes, obesity, and downstream complications. Given that intake of added sugars is a remediable risk factor, we recommend clinical trials to examine the reduction of sweetened beverages as a primary means for reducing cardiovascular risk in African Americans.

  19. New Insights on the Risk for Cardiovascular Disease in African Americans: The Role of Added Sugars

    PubMed Central

    Saab, Karim R.; Kendrick, Jessica; Yracheta, Joseph M.; Lanaspa, Miguel A.; Pollard, Maisha

    2015-01-01

    African Americans are at increased risk for cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, including obesity, high BP, diabetes, CKD, myocardial infarction, and stroke. Here we summarize the current risks and provide an overview of the underlying risk factors that may account for these associations. By reviewing the relationship between cardiovascular and renal diseases and the African-American population during the early 20th century, the historic and recent associations of African heritage with cardiovascular disease, and modern population genetics, it is possible to assemble strong hypotheses for the primary underlying mechanisms driving the increased frequency of disease in African Americans. Our studies suggest that underlying genetic mechanisms may be responsible for the increased frequency of high BP and kidney disease in African Americans, with particular emphasis on the role of APOL1 polymorphisms in causing kidney disease. In contrast, the Western diet, particularly the relatively high intake of fructose-containing sugars and sweetened beverages, appears to be the dominant force driving the increased risk of diabetes, obesity, and downstream complications. Given that intake of added sugars is a remediable risk factor, we recommend clinical trials to examine the reduction of sweetened beverages as a primary means for reducing cardiovascular risk in African Americans. PMID:25090991

  20. Russian risk assessment methods and approaches

    SciTech Connect

    Dvorack, M.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Smith, R.E.

    1996-07-01

    One of the benefits resulting from the collapse of the Soviet Union is the increased dialogue currently taking place between American and Russian nuclear weapons scientists in various technical arenas. One of these arenas currently being investigated involves collaborative studies which illustrate how risk assessment is perceived and utilized in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). The collaborative studies indicate that, while similarities exist with respect to some methodologies, the assumptions and approaches in performing risk assessments were, and still are, somewhat different in the FSU as opposed to that in the US. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the present knowledge of risk assessment methodologies and philosophies within the two largest nuclear weapons laboratories of the Former Soviet Union, Arzamas-16 and Chelyabinsk-70. Furthermore, This paper will address the relative progress of new risk assessment methodologies, such as Fuzzy Logic, within the framework of current risk assessment methods at these two institutes.

  1. Approaches to acceptable risk: a critical guide

    SciTech Connect

    Fischhoff, B.; Lichtenstein, S.; Slovic, P.; Keeney, R.; Derby, S.

    1980-12-01

    Acceptable-risk decisions are an essential step in the management of technological hazards. In many situations, they constitute the weak (or missing) link in the management process. The absence of an adequate decision-making methodology often produces indecision, inconsistency, and dissatisfaction. The result is neither good for hazard management nor good for society. This report offers a critical analysis of the viability of various approaches as guides to acceptable-risk decisions. This report seeks to define acceptable-risk decisions and to examine some frequently proposed, but inappropriate, solutions. 255 refs., 22 figs., 25 tabs.

  2. Reducing added sugar intake in Norway by replacing sugar sweetened beverages with beverages containing intense sweeteners - a risk benefit assessment.

    PubMed

    Husøy, T; Mangschou, B; Fotland, T Ø; Kolset, S O; Nøtvik Jakobsen, H; Tømmerberg, I; Bergsten, C; Alexander, J; Frost Andersen, L

    2008-09-01

    A risk benefit assessment in Norway on the intake of added sugar, intense sweeteners and benzoic acid from beverages, and the influence of changing from sugar sweetened to diet beverages was performed. National dietary surveys were used in the exposure assessment, and the content of added sugar and food additives were calculated based on actual contents used in beverages and sales volumes provided by the manufactures. The daily intake of sugar, intense sweeteners and benzoic acid were estimated for children (1- to 13-years-old) and adults according to the current intake level and a substitution scenario where it was assumed that all consumed beverages contained intense sweeteners. The change from sugar sweetened to diet beverages reduced the total intake of added sugar for all age groups but especially for adolescent. This change did not result in intake of intense sweeteners from beverages above the respective ADIs. However, the intake of acesulfame K approached ADI for small children and the total intake of benzoic acid was increased to above ADI for most age groups. The highest intake of benzoic acid was observed for 1- to 2-year-old children, and benzoic acid intake in Norwegian children is therefore considered to be of special concern.

  3. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

  4. An existential approach to risk perception.

    PubMed

    Langford, Ian H

    2002-02-01

    Existential, or existential-phenomenological philosophical approaches to the social psychology of risk perception provide a novel framework for understanding issues that are common to all humanity, such as fear of death, freedom and responsibility, isolation and meaninglessness, as these anxieties are a function of existing, or being-in-the-world. These fundamental anxieties can be related theoretically to the ways people perceive risks within social and cultural milieus, and can also be used practically within case studies, as demonstrated in the three examples presented, which examine perceptions of climate change, food-related risks, and environmental awareness via a mixture of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The discussion focuses on the possible insights that can be gained from taking an existential perspective on risk perception, and relates notions of contemporary technologically-oriented societies to the existential challenges faced by individuals and societies in the contemporary world.

  5. New approaches in human health risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Abass, Khaled; Carlsen, Anders; Rautio, Arja

    2016-01-01

    Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009–2014; www.arcrisk.eu). PMID:27974141

  6. 'European approach' to arc flash risk.

    PubMed

    Baillie, Jonathan

    2011-11-01

    DuPont claims that electrical arc, and the resulting "arc flash", are among the deadliest, least understood hazards of electricity", and can potentially occur in many industrial and other applications, including hospital plant rooms. Technical and engineering personnel from DuPont Engineering Technology, DuPont Personal Protection, and external independent experts, have thus collaborated to develop "a European approach to electrical arc risk assessment". The resulting free online resource, the DuPont Arc-Guide, sets out key steps to minimise serious arc flash incident risk, and details a range of optional, paid-for tailored risk assessment services, and an accompanying secure web portal, offering more in-depth guidance on this important, but apparently often overlooked, issue. HEJ editor Jonathan Baillie reports.

  7. Development of a new method for assessing global risk of Alzheimer's disease for use in population health approaches to prevention.

    PubMed

    Anstey, Kaarin J; Cherbuin, Nicolas; Herath, Pushpani M

    2013-08-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) affects approximately 35 million people worldwide. Increasing evidence suggests that many risk factors for AD are modifiable. AD pathology develops over decades. Hence risk reduction interventions require very long follow-ups to show effects on AD incidence. Focussing on AD risk, instead of diagnosis, provides a more realistic target for prevention strategies. We developed a novel methodology that yields a global approach to risk assessment for AD for use in population-based settings and interventions. The methodology was used to develop a risk assessment tool that can be updated as more evidence becomes available. First, a systematic search strategy identified risk and protective factors for AD. Eleven risk factors and four protective factors for AD were identified for which odds ratios were published or could be calculated (age, sex, education, body mass index, diabetes, depression, serum cholesterol, traumatic brain injury, smoking, alcohol intake, social engagement, physical activity, cognitive activity, fish intake, and pesticide exposure). An algorithm was developed to combine the odds ratios into an AD risk score. The approach allows for interactions among risk factors which provides for their varying impact over the life-course as current evidence suggests midlife is a critical period for some risk factors. Finally, a questionnaire was developed to assess the risk and protective factors by self-report. Compared with developing risk indices on single cohort studies, this approach allows for more risk factors to be included, greater generalizeability of results, and incorporation of interactions based on findings from different stages of the lifecourse.

  8. Feasibility of Neoadjuvant Ad-REIC Gene Therapy in Patients with High-Risk Localized Prostate Cancer Undergoing Radical Prostatectomy.

    PubMed

    Kumon, Hiromi; Sasaki, Katsumi; Ariyoshi, Yuichi; Sadahira, Takuya; Araki, Motoo; Ebara, Shin; Yanai, Hiroyuki; Watanabe, Masami; Nasu, Yasutomo

    2015-12-01

    In a phase I/IIa study of in situ gene therapy using an adenovirus vector carrying the human REIC/Dkk-3 gene (Ad-REIC), we assessed the inhibitory effects of cancer recurrence after radical prostatectomy (RP), in patients with high risk localized prostate cancer (PCa). After completing the therapeutic interventions with initially planned three escalating doses of 1.0 × 10(10) , 1.0 × 10(11) , and 1.0 × 10(12) viral particles (VP) in 1.0-1.2 mL (n = 3, 3, and 6), an additional higher dose of 3.0 × 10(12) VP in 3.6 mL (n = 6) was further studied. Patients with recurrence probability of 35% or more within 5 years after RP as calculated by Kattan's nomogram, were enrolled. They received two ultrasound-guided intratumoral injections at 2-week intervals, followed by RP 6 weeks after the second injection. Based on the findings of MRI and biopsy mapping, as a rule, one track injection to the most prominent cancer area was given to initial 12 patients and 3 track injections to multiple cancer areas in additional 6 patients. As compared to the former group, biochemical recurrence-free survival of the latter showed a significantly favorable outcome. Neoadjuvant Ad-REIC, mediating simultaneous induction of cancer selective apoptosis and augmentation of antitumor immunity, is a feasible approach in preventing cancer recurrence after RP. (199).

  9. MYRRHA, a Pb-Bi experimental ADS: specific approach to radiation protection aspects.

    PubMed

    Abderrahim, H Aït; Aoust, Th; Malambu, E; Sobolev, V; Van Tichelen, K; De Bruyn, D; Maes, D; Haeck, W; Van den Eynde, G

    2005-01-01

    Since 1998, SCK*CEN, in partnership with IBA s.a. and many European research laboratories, is designing a multipurpose accelerator driven system (ADS) for Research and Development (R&D) applications-MYRRHA-and is conducting an associated R&D support programme. MYRRHA is an ADS under development at Mol in Belgium and is aiming to serve as a basis for the European experimental ADS to provide protons and neutrons for various R&D applications. It consists of a proton accelerator delivering a 350 MeV x 5 mA proton beam to a liquid Pb-Bi spallation target that in turn couples to a Pb-Bi cooled, subcritical fast core. In the first stage, the project focuses mainly on demonstration of the ADS concept, safety research on sub-critical systems and nuclear waste transmutation studies. In a later stage, the device will also be dedicated to research on structural materials, nuclear fuel, liquid metal technology and associated aspects, and on sub-critical reactor physics. Subsequently, it will be used for research on applications such as radioisotope production. A first preliminary conceptual design file of MYRRHA was completed by the end of 2001 and has been reviewed by an International Technical Guidance Committee, which concluded that there are no show stoppers in the project and even though some topics such as the safety studies and the fuel qualification need to be addressed more deeply before concluding it. In this paper, we are reporting on the state-of-the art of the MYRRHA project at the beginning of 2004 and in particular on the radiation shielding assessment and the radiation protection particular aspects through a remote handling operation approach in order to minimise the personnel exposure to radiation.

  10. Ad Hoc Query Support For Very Large Simulation Mesh Data: The Metadata Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, B; Snapp, R; Musick, R; Critchlow, T

    2001-12-17

    We present our approach to enabling approximate ad hoc queries on terabyte-scale mesh data generated from large scientific simulations through the extension and integration of database, statistical, and data mining techniques. There are several significant barriers to overcome in achieving this objective. First, large-scale simulation data is already at the multi-terabyte scale and growing quickly, thus rendering traditional forms of interactive data exploration and query processing untenable. Second, a priori knowledge of user queries is not available, making it impossible to tune special-purpose solutions. Third, the data has spatial and temporal aspects, as well as arbitrarily high dimensionality, which exacerbates the task of finding compact, accurate, and easy-to-compute data models. Our approach is to preprocess the mesh data to generate highly compressed, lossy models that are used in lieu of the original data to answer users' queries. This approach leads to interesting challenges. The model (equivalently, the content-oriented metadata) being generated must be smaller than the original data by at least an order of magnitude. Second, the metadata representation must contain enough information to support a broad class of queries. Finally, the accuracy and speed of the queries must be within the tolerances required by users. In this paper we give an overview of ongoing development efforts with an emphasis on extracting metadata and using it in query processing.

  11. An adaptive neural swarm approach for intrusion defense in ad hoc networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cannady, James

    2011-06-01

    Wireless sensor networks (WSN) and mobile ad hoc networks (MANET) are being increasingly deployed in critical applications due to the flexibility and extensibility of the technology. While these networks possess numerous advantages over traditional wireless systems in dynamic environments they are still vulnerable to many of the same types of host-based and distributed attacks common to those systems. Unfortunately, the limited power and bandwidth available in WSNs and MANETs, combined with the dynamic connectivity that is a defining characteristic of the technology, makes it extremely difficult to utilize traditional intrusion detection techniques. This paper describes an approach to accurately and efficiently detect potentially damaging activity in WSNs and MANETs. It enables the network as a whole to recognize attacks, anomalies, and potential vulnerabilities in a distributive manner that reflects the autonomic processes of biological systems. Each component of the network recognizes activity in its local environment and then contributes to the overall situational awareness of the entire system. The approach utilizes agent-based swarm intelligence to adaptively identify potential data sources on each node and on adjacent nodes throughout the network. The swarm agents then self-organize into modular neural networks that utilize a reinforcement learning algorithm to identify relevant behavior patterns in the data without supervision. Once the modular neural networks have established interconnectivity both locally and with neighboring nodes the analysis of events within the network can be conducted collectively in real-time. The approach has been shown to be extremely effective in identifying distributed network attacks.

  12. Novel approach to photonic A/D conversion based on a fully connected distributed mesh feedback architecture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shoop, Barry L.; Das, Pankaj K.; Ressler, Eugene K., Jr.

    2000-05-01

    A novel approach to photonic A/D conversion using a distributed neural network, oversampling techniques, and a smart pixel hardware implementation is described. In this approach, the input signal is first sampled at a rate higher than that required by the Nyquist criterion and then presented spatially as the input to a 2D error diffusion neural network consisting of M X N neurons, each representing a pixel in the image space. The neural network processes the input oversampled analog image and produces an M X N pixel binary or halftoned output image. Decimation and low-pass filtering techniques, common to classical 1D oversampling A/D converters, digitally sum and average the M X N pixel output binary image using high-speed digital electric circuitry. By employing a 2D smart pixel neural approach to oversampling A/D conversion, each pixel constitutes a simple oversampling modulator thereby producing a distributed A/D architecture. Spectral noise shaping across the array diffuses quantization error thereby improving overall signal-to-noise ratio performance. Here, each quantizer within the network is embedded in a fully- connected, distributed mesh feedback loop which spectrally shapes the overall quantization noise thereby significantly reducing the effects of components mismatch typically associated with parallel or channelized A/D approaches. This 2D neural approach provides higher aggregate bit rates which can extend the useful bandwidth of photonic-based, oversampling A/D converters.

  13. Risk management-an industry approach.

    PubMed

    Huggett, A C

    2001-06-01

    An effective risk management system covering the whole process of food production from "farm to fork" is required by the food industry in order to assure that the food provided to consumers is safe. Food safety and quality assurance begins with the design and development of food products starting with product conceptualisation and continuing with the selection, purchasing, and evaluation of raw materials and with the specifications for processing, packaging and distribution. Within a larger quality management framework a number of tools have been developed by the food industry, which when used in an integrated fashion facilitate the management of food safety. These include good manufacturing practice (GMP), good hygiene practice (GHP) and HACCP (hazard analysis critical control point) as well as quality systems which allow the verification that all factors affecting the safety of a product are under control. Finally, regulations and systems can only function if they are applied. Everyone, from the farmer, the line operator in the manufacturing plant, to the person handling the food in distribution and sales, needs to be aware of his influence with regards safety. The effectiveness of safety awareness programs specific to each area is key to an industry approach to risk management.

  14. New Genetic Approaches to AD: Lessons from APOE-TOMM40 Phylogenetics.

    PubMed

    Lutz, Michael W; Crenshaw, Donna; Welsh-Bohmer, Kathleen A; Burns, Daniel K; Roses, Allen D

    2016-05-01

    Clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease are now focusing on the earliest stages of the disease with the goal of delaying dementia onset. There is great utility in using genetic variants to identify individuals at high age-dependent risk when the goal is to begin treatment before the development of any cognitive symptoms. Genetic variants identified through large-scale genome-wide association studies have not substantially improved the accuracy provided by APOE genotype to identify people at high risk of late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD). We describe novel approaches, focused on molecular phylogenetics, to finding genetic variants that predict age at LOAD onset with sufficient accuracy and precision to be useful. We highlight the discovery of a polymorphism in TOMM40 that, in addition to APOE, may improve risk prediction and review how TOMM40 genetic variants may impact the develop of LOAD independently from APOE. The analysis methods described in this review may be useful for other genetically complex human diseases.

  15. Exercise: An Alternative Approach to the Treatment of AD/HD.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Putnam, Steve; Copans, Stuart A.

    1998-01-01

    Suggests that the increase of Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (AD/HD) cases in America and Canada may be due in part to decreased levels of children's physical activity. Research has shown that exercise helps to lessen the symptoms of AD/HD. Claims that the use of regular exercise programs in school and at home is beneficial for AD/HD…

  16. Adding Salt to Meals as a Risk Factor of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Case–Control Study

    PubMed Central

    Radzeviciene, Lina; Ostrauskas, Rytas

    2017-01-01

    Objective: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is thought to arise from the complex interplay between genetic and environmental factors. It is important to identify modifiable risk factors that may help to reduce the risk of diabetes. Data on salt intake and the risk of type 2 diabetes are limited. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between adding salt to prepared meals and the risk of type 2 diabetes. Methods: In a case–control study, we included 234 cases, all of whom were patients aged 35–86 years with a newly confirmed diagnosis of T2DM, and 468 controls that were free of the disease. Cases and controls (ratio 1:2) were matched by gender and age (±5 years). A questionnaire was used to collect information on possible risk factors for diabetes. Adding salt to prepared meals was assessed according to: Never, when there was not enough, or almost every time without tasting. The odds ratios (OR), and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for type 2 diabetes was calculated using a conditional logistic regression. Results: The cases had a higher body mass index and a significantly lower education level compared to the controls. Variables such as waist circumference, body mass index, eating speed, smoking, family history of diabetes, arterial hypertension, plasma triglycerides, educational level, occupational status, morning exercise, marital status, daily urine sodium excretion, and daily energy intake were retained in the models as confounders. After adjusting for possible confounders, an approximately two-fold increased risk of type 2 diabetes was determined in subjects who add salt to prepared meals when “it is not enough” or “almost every time without tasting” (1.82; 95% CI 1.19–2.78; p = 0.006) compared with never adding salt. Conclusion: Presented data suggest the possible relationship between additional adding of salt to prepared meals and an increased risk of type 2 diabetes. PMID:28098780

  17. Peer Relationship Problems of Children with AD/HD: Risk Factors and New Directions in Interventions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ozdemir, Selda

    2009-01-01

    This review integrates and evaluates research conducted on possible contributing factors to peer relationship problems of children with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (AD/HD). Substantial evidence suggests that children with AD/HD have serious problems in multiple aspects of their relationships with peers. Difficulties resulting from…

  18. The added value of system robustness analysis for flood risk management illustrated by a case on the IJssel River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mens, M. J. P.; Klijn, F.

    2015-02-01

    Decision makers in fluvial flood risk management increasingly acknowledge that they have to prepare for extreme events. Flood risk is the most common basis on which to compare flood risk-reducing strategies. To take uncertainties into account the criteria of robustness and flexibility are advocated as well. This paper discusses the added value of robustness as an additional decision criterion compared to single-value flood risk only. We do so by quantifying flood risk and system robustness for alternative system configurations of the IJssel River valley in the Netherlands. We found that robustness analysis has added value in three respects: (1) it does not require assumptions on current and future flood probabilities, since flood consequences are shown as a function of discharge; (2) it shows the sensitivity of the system to varying discharges; and (3) it supports a discussion on the acceptability of flood damage. We conclude that robustness analysis is a valuable addition to flood risk analysis in support of long-term decision-making on flood risk management.

  19. Emergency Situation Prediction Mechanism: A Novel Approach for Intelligent Transportation System Using Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks.

    PubMed

    Ganeshkumar, P; Gokulakrishnan, P

    2015-01-01

    In Indian four-lane express highway, millions of vehicles are travelling every day. Accidents are unfortunate and frequently occurring in these highways causing deaths, increase in death toll, and damage to infrastructure. A mechanism is required to avoid such road accidents at the maximum to reduce the death toll. An Emergency Situation Prediction Mechanism, a novel and proactive approach, is proposed in this paper for achieving the best of Intelligent Transportation System using Vehicular Ad Hoc Network. ESPM intends to predict the possibility of occurrence of an accident in an Indian four-lane express highway. In ESPM, the emergency situation prediction is done by the Road Side Unit based on (i) the Status Report sent by the vehicles in the range of RSU and (ii) the road traffic flow analysis done by the RSU. Once the emergency situation or accident is predicted in advance, an Emergency Warning Message is constructed and disseminated to all vehicles in the area of RSU to alert and prevent the vehicles from accidents. ESPM performs well in emergency situation prediction in advance to the occurrence of an accident. ESPM predicts the emergency situation within 0.20 seconds which is comparatively less than the statistical value. The prediction accuracy of ESPM against vehicle density is found better in different traffic scenarios.

  20. Emergency Situation Prediction Mechanism: A Novel Approach for Intelligent Transportation System Using Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks

    PubMed Central

    Gokulakrishnan, P.

    2015-01-01

    In Indian four-lane express highway, millions of vehicles are travelling every day. Accidents are unfortunate and frequently occurring in these highways causing deaths, increase in death toll, and damage to infrastructure. A mechanism is required to avoid such road accidents at the maximum to reduce the death toll. An Emergency Situation Prediction Mechanism, a novel and proactive approach, is proposed in this paper for achieving the best of Intelligent Transportation System using Vehicular Ad Hoc Network. ESPM intends to predict the possibility of occurrence of an accident in an Indian four-lane express highway. In ESPM, the emergency situation prediction is done by the Road Side Unit based on (i) the Status Report sent by the vehicles in the range of RSU and (ii) the road traffic flow analysis done by the RSU. Once the emergency situation or accident is predicted in advance, an Emergency Warning Message is constructed and disseminated to all vehicles in the area of RSU to alert and prevent the vehicles from accidents. ESPM performs well in emergency situation prediction in advance to the occurrence of an accident. ESPM predicts the emergency situation within 0.20 seconds which is comparatively less than the statistical value. The prediction accuracy of ESPM against vehicle density is found better in different traffic scenarios. PMID:26065014

  1. Flooding Risk for Coastal Infrastructure: a Stakeholder-Oriented Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plater, A. J.; Prime, T.; Brown, J. M.; Knight, P. J.; Morrissey, K.

    2015-12-01

    A flood risk assessment for coastal energy infrastructure in the UK with respect to long-term sea-level rise and extreme water levels has been conducted using a combination of numerical modelling approaches (LISFLOOD-FP, SWAB, XBeach-G, POLCOMS). Model outputs have been incorporated into a decision-support tool that enables users from a wide spectrum of coastal stakeholders (e.g. nuclear energy, utility providers, local government, environmental regulators, communities) to explore the potential impacts of flooding on both operational (events to 10 years) and strategic (10 to 50 years) timescales. Examples illustrate the physical and economic impacts of flooding from combined extreme water levels, wave overtopping and high river flow for Fleetwood, NW England; changes in the extent of likely flooding arising from an extreme event due to sea-level rise for Oldbury, SW England; and the relative vulnerability to overtopping and breaching of sea defences for Dungeness, SE England. The impacts of a potential large-scale beach recharge scheme to mitigate coastal erosion and flood risk along the southern shoreline of Dungeness are also examined using a combination of coastal evolution and particle-tracking modelling. The research goal is to provide an evidence base for resource allocation, investment in interventions, and communication and dialogue in relation to sea-level rise to 2500 AD.

  2. A Validity Argument Approach to Evaluating Teacher Value-Added Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hill, Heather C.; Kapitula, Laura; Umland, Kristin

    2011-01-01

    Value-added models have become popular in research and pay-for-performance plans. While scholars have focused attention on some aspects of their validity (e.g., scoring procedures), others have received less scrutiny. This article focuses on the extent to which value-added scores correspond to other indicators of teacher and teaching quality. The…

  3. An Integrated Approach to Risk Assessment for Concurrent Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila; Voss, Luke; Feather, Martin; Cornford, Steve

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes an approach to risk assessment and analysis suited to the early phase, concurrent design of a space mission. The approach integrates an agile, multi-user risk collection tool, a more in-depth risk analysis tool, and repositories of risk information. A JPL developed tool, named RAP, is used for collecting expert opinions about risk from designers involved in the concurrent design of a space mission. Another in-house developed risk assessment tool, named DDP, is used for the analysis.

  4. Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Approach to Enterprise Risk Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauder, Stephen P.

    2014-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Division has implemented an innovative approach to Enterprise Risk Management under a unique governance structure and streamlined integration model. ESD's mission is to design and build the capability to extend human existence to deep space. The Enterprise consists of three Programs: Space Launch System (SLS), Orion, and Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). The SLS is a rocket and launch system that will be capable of powering humans, habitats, and support systems to deep space. Orion will be the first spacecraft in history capable of taking humans to multiple destinations within deep space. GSDO is modernizing Kennedy's spaceport to launch spacecraft built and designed by both NASA and private industry. ESD's approach to Enterprise Risk Management is commensurate with affordability and a streamlined management philosophy. ESD Enterprise Risk Management leverages off of the primary mechanisms for integration within the Enterprise. The Enterprise integration approach emphasizes delegation of authority to manage and execute the majority of cross-program activities and products to the individual Programs, while maintaining the overall responsibility for all cross-program activities at the Division. The intent of the ESD Enterprise Risk Management approach is to improve risk communication, to avoid replication and/or contradictory strategies, and to minimize overhead process burden. This is accomplished by the facilitation and integration of risk information within ESD. The ESD Division risks, Orion risks, SLS risks, and GSDO risks are owned and managed by the applicable Program. When the Programs have shared risks with multiple consequences, they are jointly owned and managed. When a risk is associated with the integrated system that involves more than one Program in condition, consequence, or mitigation plan, it is considered an Exploration Systems Integration

  5. Towards actionable risk stratification: a bilinear approach.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xiang; Wang, Fei; Hu, Jianying; Sorrentino, Robert

    2015-02-01

    Risk stratification is instrumental to modern clinical decision support systems. Comprehensive risk stratification should be able to provide the clinicians with not only the accurate assessment of a patient's risk but also the clinical context to be acted upon. However, existing risk stratification techniques mainly focus on predicting the risk score for individual patients; at the cohort level, they offer little insight beyond a flat score-based segmentation. This essentially reduces a patient to a score and thus removes him/her from his/her clinical context. To address this limitation, in this paper we propose a bilinear model for risk stratification that simultaneously captures the three key aspects of risk stratification: (1) it predicts the risk of each individual patient; (2) it stratifies the patient cohort based on not only the risk score but also the clinical characteristics; and (3) it embeds all patients into clinical contexts with clear interpretation. We apply our model to a cohort of 4977 patients, 1127 among which were diagnosed with Congestive Heart Failure (CHF). We demonstrate that our model cannot only accurately predict the onset risk of CHF but also provide rich and actionable clinical insights into the patient cohort.

  6. Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

    PubMed

    Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

    2014-12-01

    Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants.

  7. Risk-driven security testing using risk analysis with threat modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Palanivel, Maragathavalli; Selvadurai, Kanmani

    2014-01-01

    Security testing is a process of determining risks present in the system states and protects them from vulnerabilities. But security testing does not provide due importance to threat modeling and risk analysis simultaneously that affects confidentiality and integrity of the system. Risk analysis includes identification, evaluation and assessment of risks. Threat modeling approach is identifying threats associated with the system. Risk-driven security testing uses risk analysis results in test case identification, selection and assessment to prioritize and optimize the testing process. Threat modeling approach, STRIDE is generally used to identify both technical and non-technical threats present in the system. Thus, a security testing mechanism based on risk analysis results using STRIDE approach has been proposed for identifying highly risk states. Risk metrics considered for testing includes risk impact, risk possibility and risk threshold. Risk threshold value is directly proportional to risk impact and risk possibility. Risk-driven security testing results in reduced test suite which in turn reduces test case selection time. Risk analysis optimizes the test case selection and execution process. For experimentation, the system models namely LMS, ATM, OBS, OSS and MTRS are considered. The performance of proposed system is analyzed using Test Suite Reduction Rate (TSRR) and FSM coverage. TSRR varies from 13.16 to 21.43% whereas FSM coverage is achieved up to 91.49%. The results show that the proposed method combining risk analysis with threat modeling identifies states with high risks to improve the testing efficiency.

  8. Preventing the link between SES and high-risk behaviors: "value-added" education, drug use and delinquency in high-risk, urban schools.

    PubMed

    Tobler, Amy L; Komro, Kelli A; Dabroski, Alexis; Aveyard, Paul; Markham, Wolfgang A

    2011-06-01

    We examined whether schools achieving better than expected educational outcomes for their students influence the risk of drug use and delinquency among urban, racial/ethnic minority youth. Adolescents (n = 2,621), who were primarily African American and Hispanic and enrolled in Chicago public schools (n = 61), completed surveys in 6th (aged 12) and 8th (aged 14) grades. Value-added education was derived from standardized residuals of regression equations predicting school-level academic achievement and attendance from students' sociodemographic profiles and defined as having higher academic achievement and attendance than that expected given the sociodemographic profile of the schools' student composition. Multilevel logistic regression estimated the effects of value-added education on students' drug use and delinquency. After considering initial risk behavior, value-added education was associated with lower incidence of alcohol, cigarette and marijuana use; stealing; and participating in a group-against-group fight. Significant beneficial effects of value-added education remained for cigarette and marijuana use, stealing and participating in a group-against-group fight after adjustment for individual- and school-level covariates. Alcohol use (past month and heavy episodic) showed marginally significant trends in the hypothesized direction after these adjustments. Inner-city schools may break the links between social disadvantage, drug use and delinquency. Identifying the processes related to value-added education in order to improve school environments is warranted given the high costs associated with individual-level interventions.

  9. SMALL POPULATIONS REQUIRE SPECIFIC MODELING APPROACHES FOR ASSESSING RISK

    EPA Science Inventory

    All populations face non-zero risks of extinction. However, the risks for small populations, and therefore the modeling approaches necessary to predict them, are different from those of large populations. These differences are currently hindering assessment of risk to small pop...

  10. Determinants of Food Safety Risks: A Multi-disciplinary Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knight, Andrew; Warland, Rex

    2005-01-01

    This research employs a multi-disciplinary approach by developing a model that draws upon psychometric, cultural, and reflexive modernization perspectives of risk perception. Using data from a 1999 national telephone survey, we tested our model on three food risks ? pesticides, Salmonella, and fat. Results showed that perceptions of risks do vary…

  11. INDICATORS OF RISK: AN ANALYSIS APPROACH FOR IMPROVED RIVER MANAGEMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A risk index is an approach to measuring the level of risk to the plants and/or animals (biota) in a certain area using water and habitat quality information. A new technique for developing risk indices was applied to data collected from Mid-Atlantic streams of the U.S. during 1...

  12. A model-driven approach to qualitatively assessing the added value of community coalitions.

    PubMed

    Herman, Elizabeth Jane; Keller, Adrienne; Davis, Adam; Ehrensberger, Ryan; Telleen, Sharon; Kurz, Richard; Nesvold, Jill Heins; Findley, Sally; Bryant-Stephens, Tyra; Benson, Mindy; Fierro, Leslie

    2011-02-01

    Community-based coalitions are commonly formed to plan and to carry out public health interventions. The literature includes evaluations of coalition structure, composition, and functioning; evaluations of community-level changes achieved through coalition activities; and the association between coalition characteristics and various indicators of success. Little information is available on the comparative advantage or "added value" of conducting public health interventions through coalitions as opposed to less structured collaborative mechanisms. This paper describes a qualitative, iterative process carried out with site representatives of the Controlling Asthma in American Cities Project (CAACP) to identify outcomes directly attributable to coalitions. The process yielded 2 complementary sets of results. The first were criteria that articulated and limited the concept of "added value of coalitions". The criteria included consensus definitions, an organizing figure, a logic model, and inclusion/exclusion criteria. The second set of results identified site-specific activities that met the definitional criteria and were, by agreement, examples of CAACP coalitions' added value. Beyond the specific findings relevant to the added value of coalitions in this project, the use of a social ecological model to identify the components of added value and the placement of those components within a logic model specific to coalitions should provide useful tools for those planning and assessing coalition-based projects.

  13. Reducing Added Sugars in the Food Supply Through a Cap-and-Trade Approach

    PubMed Central

    Lewis, Kristina

    2014-01-01

    Objectives. We estimated the effect of a simulated cap-and-trade policy to reduce added sugar in the food supply. Methods. Using nationally representative data on added-sugar content and consumption, we constructed a mathematical model of a cap-and-trade policy and compared its health implications to those of proposals to tax sugar sweetened beverages or added sugars. Results. Capping added-sugar emissions into the food supply by food manufacturers at a rate of 1% per year would be expected to reduce the prevalence of obesity by 1.7 percentage points (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.9, 2.4; a 4.6% decline) and the incidence of type 2 diabetes by 21.7 cases per 100 000 people (95% CI = 12.9, 30.6; a 4.2% decline) over 20 years, averting approximately $9.7 billion in health care spending. Racial and ethnic minorities would be expected to experience the largest declines. By comparison, equivalent price penalties through excise taxes would be expected to generate smaller health benefits. Conclusions. A cap-and-trade policy to reduce added-sugar intake may reduce obesity and type 2 diabetes to a greater extent than currently-proposed excise taxes. PMID:25365146

  14. Use of risk quotient and probabilistic approaches to assess risks of pesticides to birds

    EPA Science Inventory

    When conducting ecological risk assessments for pesticides, the United States Environmental Protection Agency typically relies upon the risk quotient (RQ). This approach is intended to be conservative in nature, making assumptions related to exposure and effects that are intended...

  15. Chemical Risk Assessment - The Navy Occupational Approach

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1993-01-01

    whereas the Food and Drug Ad- claims have combined to narrow our interest primarily to ministration (FDA) has interpreted court decisions to mean...unleashed, these agents will have the disciplines oa loxicology, health hazard evaluations, and significant effects , beginning with the very young...health effects standpoint, we wish Management and Budget’s concem overworst-case exposure to examine the spectrum that begins with exposure and pos

  16. Risk analysis approach. [of carbon fiber release

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huston, R. J.

    1979-01-01

    The assessment of the carbon fiber hazard is outlined. Program objectives, requirements of the risk analysis, and elements associated with the physical phenomena of the accidental release are described.

  17. Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

    PubMed

    Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

    2016-02-01

    Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth.

  18. Using a Value-Added Approach to Assess the Sociology Major

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pedersen, Daphne E.; White, Frank

    2011-01-01

    Universities across the nation have been called upon to provide evidence of student learning through direct means of assessment. Value-added assessment, which aims to document the development of student learning from the beginning of the university experience to the end, has been called "accountability's new frontier" by the American…

  19. The Use of National Data Sets to Baseline Science Education Reform: Exploring Value-Added Approaches

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Homer, Matt; Ryder, Jim; Donnelly, Jim

    2011-01-01

    This paper uses data from the National Pupil Database to investigate the differences in "performance" across the range of science courses available following the 2006 Key Stage 4 (KS4) science reforms in England. This is a value-added exploration (from Key Stage 3 [KS3] to KS4) aimed not at the student or the school level, but rather at…

  20. Risk evaluation: A cost-oriented approach

    SciTech Connect

    Rogers, B.H.

    1998-02-03

    This method provides a structured and cost-oriented way to determine risks associated with loss and destruction of industrial security interests consisting of material assets and human resources. Loss and destruction are assumed to be adversary perpetrated, high-impact events in which the health and safety of people or high-value property is at risk. This concept provides a process for: (1) assessing effectiveness of all integrated protection system, which includes facility operations, safety, emergency and security systems, and (2) a qualitative prioritization scheme to determine the level of consequence relative to cost and subsequent risk. The method allows managers the flexibility to establish asset protection appropriate to programmatic requirements and priorities and to decide if funding is appropriate. The evaluation objectives are to: (1) provide for a systematic, qualitative tabletop process to estimate the potential for an undesirable event and its impact; and (2) identify ineffective protection and cost-effective solutions.

  1. An approach to security risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Engells, Thomas E

    2012-01-01

    Use of a brief survey instrument described in this article can be a useful means of obtaining actionable information in regards to risk assessment and crime prevention, the author points out. The survey yields data that assists in the prioritization of effort that can enhance the impact of a limited pool of qualified specialists.

  2. Reducing Adolescent Risk: Toward an Integrated Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Romer, David, Ed.

    This collection of papers focuses on common influences that result in a number of interrelated risk behaviors, summarizing presentations and discussions from a recent conference at which a group of specialists from different health traditions synthesized current knowledge on the subject. There are 39 papers in four parts. Part 1, "Adolescents…

  3. Improving Our Approach to Managing Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Adam

    2008-01-01

    Outdoor education--be it canoe tripping, adventure programs, field studies or anything else--is inherently risky. Outdoor educators deal with unpredictable settings and situations, where change is constant and outcomes are sometimes uncertain. In this naturalistic environment, their risk management procedures have the potential to break down and…

  4. Antagonistic molecular interactions of photosynthetic pigments with molecular disease targets: a new approach to treat AD and ALS.

    PubMed

    Krishnaraj, R Navanietha; Kumari, S S Sreeja; Mukhopadhyay, Sudit Sekhar

    2016-01-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) are progressive neurodegenerative diseases that affect the neurons in the brain and the spinal cord. Neuroinflamation and apoptosis are key players in the progressive damage of the neurons in AD and ALS. Currently, there is no drug to offer complete cure for both these diseases. Riluzole is the only available drug that can prolong the life time of the ALS patients for nearly 3 months. Molecules that offer good HIT to the molecular targets of ALS will help to treat AD and ALS patients. P53 kinase receptor (4AT3), EphA4 (3CKH) and histone deacetylase (3SFF) are the promising disease targets of AD and ALS. This paper discusses on a new approach to combat neurodegenerative diseases using photosynthetic pigments. The docking studies were performed with the Autodock Vina algorithm to predict the binding of the natural pigments such as β carotene, chlorophyll a, chlorophyll b, phycoerythrin and phycocyanin on these targets. The β carotene, phycoerythrin and phycocyanin had higher binding energies indicating the antagonistic activity to the disease targets. These pigments serve as a potential therapeutic molecule to treat neuroinflammation and apoptosis in the AD and ALS patients.

  5. Enhancements for distributed certificate authority approaches for mobile wireless ad hoc networks.

    SciTech Connect

    Van Leeuwen, Brian P.; Michalski, John T.; Anderson, William Erik

    2003-12-01

    Mobile wireless ad hoc networks that are resistant to adversarial manipulation are necessary for distributed systems used in military and security applications. Critical to the successful operation of these networks, which operate in the presence of adversarial stressors, are robust and efficient information assurance methods. In this report we describe necessary enhancements for a distributed certificate authority (CA) used in secure wireless network architectures. Necessary cryptographic algorithms used in distributed CAs are described and implementation enhancements of these algorithms in mobile wireless ad hoc networks are developed. The enhancements support a network's ability to detect compromised nodes and facilitate distributed CA services. We provide insights to the impacts the enhancements will have on network performance with timing diagrams and preliminary network simulation studies.

  6. [Risk factors for cesarean section: epidemiologic approach].

    PubMed

    Trujillo Hernández, B; Tene Pérez, C E; Ríos Silva, M

    2000-07-01

    The increase in frequency of cesareans that has been noted through 70's, not diminished--like it was expected--perinatal morbidity and mortality. The most important indications to cesarean are distocias, previous cesarean and fetal stress. In 1998 frequency of cesarean deliveries in our hospital was 35% of the pregnancy attended. The claim of this study was to determine risks factors to cesarean in our hospital. A case-control study was performed, selecting 165 cases (cesareans) and 328 controls (via vaginal). It was determined OR of the risks factors and atribuible fraction. Data were analyzed by X2. The most important indications to cesarean delivery were: distocias (39%, n = 64); previous cesarean (23%, n = 41) and fetal stress (11%, n = 21). There was not significative differences in age, height and rupture membrane time in both groups. History of cesarean delivery gave major risk to another surgical intervention (OR = 12.7, p = < 0.0001, atribuible fraction 92%). Nuliparous (OR = 6.6, p < 0.00000, atribuible fraction 85%), second gestation (OR = 1.8, p = 0.002) or history of abortion (OR = 1.8, p = 0.04) were factors mainly associated to cesarean delivery. We concluded that the precise 'medications of this surgical intervention specially in nuliparous or previous cesarean delivery cases must be replanteated to diminish its elevated frequency.

  7. Relationship Risks in Context: A Cumulative Risk Approach to Understanding Relationship Satisfaction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rauer, Amy J.; Karney, Benjamin R.; Garvan, Cynthia W.; Hou, Wei

    2008-01-01

    Risks associated with less satisfying intimate relationships often co-occur within individuals, raising questions about approaches that consider only their independent impact. Utilizing the "cumulative risk model," which acknowledges the natural covariation of risk factors, this study examined individuals in intimate relationships using…

  8. Windscreen wiper fluid without added screenwash in motor vehicles: a newly identified risk factor for Legionnaires' disease.

    PubMed

    Wallensten, Anders; Oliver, Isabel; Ricketts, Katherine; Kafatos, George; Stuart, James M; Joseph, Carol

    2010-09-01

    A source of infection is rarely identified for sporadic cases of Legionnaires' disease. We found that professional drivers are five times more commonly represented among community acquired sporadic cases in England and Wales than expected. We therefore investigated possible risk exposures in relation to driving or spending time in a motor vehicle. A case control study including all surviving community acquired sporadic cases in England and Wales with onset between 12 July 2008 and 9 March 2009 was carried out. Cases were contacted by phone and controls were consecutively recruited by sequential digital dialling matched by area code, sex and age group. Those who consented were sent a questionnaire asking questions on driving habits, potential sources in vehicles and known risk factors. The results were analysed using logistic regression. 75 cases and 67 controls were included in the study. Multivariable analysis identified two exposures linked to vehicle use associated with an increased risk of Legionnaires' disease: Driving through industrial areas (OR 7.2, 95%CI 1.5-33.7) and driving or being a passenger in a vehicle with windscreen wiper fluid not containing added screenwash (OR 47.2, 95%CI 3.7-603.6). Not adding screenwash to windscreen wiper fluid is a previously unidentified risk factor and appears to be strongly associated with community acquired sporadic cases of Legionnaires' disease. We estimated that around 20% of community acquired sporadic cases could be attributed to this exposure. A simple recommendation to use screenwash may mitigate transmission of Legionella bacteria to drivers and passengers.

  9. Enhancing Students' Approaches to Learning: The Added Value of Gradually Implementing Case-Based Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baeten, Marlies; Dochy, Filip; Struyven, Katrien

    2013-01-01

    Previous research has shown the difficulty of enhancing students' approaches to learning, in particular the deep approach, through student-centred teaching methods such as problem- and case-based learning. This study investigates whether mixed instructional methods combining case-based learning and lectures have the power to enhance students'…

  10. A random matrix approach to credit risk.

    PubMed

    Münnix, Michael C; Schäfer, Rudi; Guhr, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    We estimate generic statistical properties of a structural credit risk model by considering an ensemble of correlation matrices. This ensemble is set up by Random Matrix Theory. We demonstrate analytically that the presence of correlations severely limits the effect of diversification in a credit portfolio if the correlations are not identically zero. The existence of correlations alters the tails of the loss distribution considerably, even if their average is zero. Under the assumption of randomly fluctuating correlations, a lower bound for the estimation of the loss distribution is provided.

  11. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  12. Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

  13. A likelihood approach to calculating risk support intervals

    SciTech Connect

    Leal, S.M.; Ott, J. )

    1994-05-01

    Genetic risks are usually computed under the assumption that genetic parameters, such as the recombination fraction, are known without error. Uncertainty in the estimates of these parameters must translate into uncertainty regarding the risk. To allow for uncertainties in parameter values, one may employ Bayesian techniques or, in a maximum-likelihood framework, construct a support interval (SI) for the risk. Here the authors have implemented the latter approach. The SI for the risk is based on the SIs of parameters involved in the pedigree likelihood. As an empirical example, the SI for the risk was calculated for probands who are members of chronic spinal muscular atrophy kindreds. In order to evaluate the accuracy of a risk in genetic counseling situations, the authors advocate that, in addition to a point estimate, an SI for the risk should be calculated. 16 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  14. Hereditary cancer risk assessment: essential tools for a better approach

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Hereditary cancer risk assessment (HCRA) is a multidisciplinary process of estimating probabilities of germline mutations in cancer susceptibility genes and assessing empiric risks of cancer, based on personal and family history. It includes genetic counseling, testing and management of at-risk individuals so that they can make well-informed choices about cancer surveillance, surgical treatment and chemopreventive measures, including biomolecular cancer therapies. Providing patients and family members with an appropriate HCRA will contribute to a better process of making decisions about their personal and family risks of cancer. Following individuals at high risk through screening protocols, reassuring those at low risk, and referring those at increased risk of hereditary cancer to a cancer genetics center may be the best suitable approach of HCRA. PMID:24165150

  15. Equity in health care financing in Palestine: the value-added of the disaggregate approach.

    PubMed

    Abu-Zaineh, Mohammad; Mataria, Awad; Luchini, Stéphane; Moatti, Jean-Paul

    2008-06-01

    This paper analyzes the redistributive effect and progressivity associated with the current health care financing schemes in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, using data from the first Palestinian Household Health Expenditure Survey conducted in 2004. The paper goes beyond the commonly used "aggregate summary index approach" to apply a more detailed "disaggregate approach". Such an approach is borrowed from the general economic literature on taxation, and examines redistributive and vertical effects over specific parts of the income distribution, using the dominance criterion. In addition, the paper employs a bootstrap method to test for the statistical significance of the inequality measures. While both the aggregate and disaggregate approaches confirm the pro-rich and regressive character of out-of-pocket payments, the aggregate approach does not ascertain the potential progressive feature of any of the available insurance schemes. The disaggregate approach, however, significantly reveals a progressive aspect, for over half of the population, of the government health insurance scheme, and demonstrates that the regressivity of the out-of-pocket payments is most pronounced among the worst-off classes of the population. Recommendations are advanced to improve the performance of the government insurance schemes to enhance its capacity in limiting inequalities in health care financing in the Occupied Palestinian Territory.

  16. Using Surveillance of Mental Health to Increase Understanding of Youth Involvement in High-Risk Behaviors: A Value-Added Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dowdy, Erin; Furlong, Michael J.; Sharkey, Jill D.

    2013-01-01

    This study examined the potential utility of adding items that assessed youths' emotional and behavioral disorders to a commonly used surveillance survey. The goal was to evaluate whether the added items could enhance understanding of youths' involvement in high-risk behaviors. A sample of 3,331 adolescents in Grades 8, 10, and 12 from four…

  17. Bacillus aryabhattai BA03: a novel approach to the production of natural value-added compounds.

    PubMed

    Paz, Alicia; Carballo, Julia; Pérez, María José; Domínguez, José Manuel

    2016-10-01

    A strain designated as BA03, with the ability to transform ferulic acid into vanillin and 4-vinylguaiacol, was isolated from contaminated cryovials. The production of natural value-added compounds was dependent on the media employed. The morphological and physiological characteristics of this strain were compared with those of the typical vanillin-producer strain Amycolatopsis sp. ATCC 39116. According to a partial 16S rRNA sequence, we determined that BA03 belonged to Bacillus aryabhattai. In addition, analysis of the results showed that this strain exhibited interesting enzymatic activity, including cellulases, laccases, lipases and pectinases. In light of this, we propose new functions for this multitasking microorganism. We suggest that it may be used for converting lignocellulosic wastes into byproducts with industrial uses, and also for treating disposal residues such as dyes in the textile industry. Hence, the possibility for novel research with B. aryabhattai opens up in the fields of biodegradation and/or revalorization of wastes.

  18. A reclamation approach for mined prime farmland by adding organic wastes and lime to the subsoil

    SciTech Connect

    Zhai, Qiang; Barnhisel, R.I.

    1996-12-31

    Surface mined prime farmland may be reclaimed by adding organic wastes and lime to subsoil thus improving conditions in root zone. In this study, sewage sludge, poultry manure, horse bedding, and lime were applied to subsoil (15-30 cm) during reclamation. Soil properties and plant growth were measured over two years. All organic amendments tended to lower the subsoil bulk density and increase organic matter and total nitrogen. Liming raised exchangeable calcium, slightly increased pH, but decreased exchangeable magnesium and potassium. Corn ear-leaf and forage tissue nitrogen, yields, and nitrogen removal increased in treatments amended with sewage sludge and poultry manure, but not horse bedding. Subsoil application of sewage sludge or poultry manure seems like a promising method in the reclamation of surface mined prime farmland based on the improvements observed in the root zone environment.

  19. Converting citrus wastes into value-added products: Economic and environmently friendly approaches.

    PubMed

    Sharma, Kavita; Mahato, Neelima; Cho, Moo Hwan; Lee, Yong Rok

    2017-02-01

    Citrus fruits, including oranges, grapefruits, lemons, limes, tangerines, and mandarins, are among the most widely cultivated fruits around the globe. Its production is increasing every year due to rising consumer demand. Citrus-processing industries generate huge amounts of wastes every year, and citrus peel waste alone accounts for almost 50% of the wet fruit mass. Citrus waste is of immense economic value as it contains an abundance of various flavonoids, carotenoids, dietary fiber, sugars, polyphenols, essential oils, and ascorbic acid, as well as considerable amounts of some trace elements. Citrus waste also contains high levels of sugars suitable for fermentation for bioethanol production. However, compounds such as D-limonene must be removed for efficient bioethanol production. The aim of the present article was to review the latest advances in various popular methods of extraction for obtaining value-added products from citrus waste/byproducts and their potential utility as a source of various functional compounds.

  20. Approach to risk identification in undifferentiated mental disorders

    PubMed Central

    Silveira, José; Rockman, Patricia; Fulford, Casey; Hunter, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Objective To provide primary care physicians with a novel approach to risk identification and related clinical decision making in the management of undifferentiated mental disorders. Sources of information We conducted a review of the literature in PubMed, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Google Scholar using the search terms diagnostic uncertainty, diagnosis, risk identification, risk assessment/methods, risk, risk factors, risk management/methods, cognitive biases and psychiatry, decision making, mental disorders/diagnosis, clinical competence, evidence-based medicine, interviews as topic, psychiatry/education, psychiatry/methods, documentation/methods, forensic psychiatry/education, forensic psychiatry/methods, mental disorders/classification, mental disorders/psychology, violence/prevention and control, and violence/psychology. Main message Mental disorders are a large component of practice in primary care and often present in an undifferentiated manner, remaining so for prolonged periods. The challenging search for a diagnosis can divert attention from risk identification, as diagnosis is commonly presumed to be necessary before treatment can begin. This might inadvertently contribute to preventable adverse events. Focusing on salient aspects of the patient presentation related to risk should be prioritized. This article presents a novel approach to organizing patient information to assist risk identification and decision making in the management of patients with undifferentiated mental disorders. Conclusion A structured approach can help physicians to manage the clinical uncertainty common to risk identification in patients with mental disorders and cope with the common anxiety and cognitive biases that affect priorities in risk-related decision making. By focusing on risk, functional impairments, and related symptoms using a novel framework, physicians can meet their patients’ immediate needs while continuing the search for diagnostic clarity and long

  1. [New approach for managing microbial risks in food].

    PubMed

    Augustin, Jean-Christophe

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the food legislation is to ensure the protection of human health. Traditionally, the food legislation requires food business operators to apply good hygiene practices and specific procedures to control foodborne pathogens. These regulations allowed reaching a high level of health protection. The improvement of the system will require risk-based approaches. Firstly, risk assessment should allow the identification of high-risk situations where resources should be allocated for a better targeting of risk management. Then, management measures should be adapted to the health objective. In this approach, the appropriate level of protection is converted intofood safety and performance objectives on the food chain, i.e., maximum microbial contamination to fulfil the acceptable risk level. When objectives are defined, the food business operators and competent authorities can identify control options to comply with the objectives and establish microbiological criteria to verify compliance with these objectives. This approach, described for approximately 10 years, operative thanks to the development of quantitative risk assessment techniques, is still difficult to use in practical terms since it requires a commitment of competent authorities to define the acceptable risk and needs also the implementation of sometimes complex risk models.

  2. A generalized Fourier transform approach to risk measures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bormetti, Giacomo; Cazzola, Valentina; Livan, Giacomo; Montagna, Guido; Nicrosini, Oreste

    2010-01-01

    We introduce the formalism of generalized Fourier transforms in the context of risk management. We develop a general framework in which to efficiently compute the most popular risk measures, value-at-risk and expected shortfall (also known as conditional value-at-risk). The only ingredient required by our approach is the knowledge of the characteristic function describing the financial data in use. This allows us to extend risk analysis to those non-Gaussian models defined in the Fourier space, such as Lévy noise driven processes and stochastic volatility models. We test our analytical results on data sets coming from various financial indexes, finding that our predictions outperform those provided by the standard log-normal dynamics and are in remarkable agreement with those of the benchmark historical approach.

  3. A phased approach to induced seismicity risk management

    DOE PAGES

    White, Joshua A.; Foxall, William

    2014-01-01

    This work describes strategies for assessing and managing induced seismicity risk during each phase of a carbon storage project. We consider both nuisance and damage potential from induced earthquakes, as well as the indirect risk of enhancing fault leakage pathways. A phased approach to seismicity management is proposed, in which operations are continuously adapted based on available information and an on-going estimate of risk. At each project stage, specific recommendations are made for (a) monitoring and characterization, (b) modeling and analysis, and (c) site operations. The resulting methodology can help lower seismic risk while ensuring site operations remain practical andmore » cost-effective.« less

  4. A phased approach to induced seismicity risk management

    SciTech Connect

    White, Joshua A.; Foxall, William

    2014-01-01

    This work describes strategies for assessing and managing induced seismicity risk during each phase of a carbon storage project. We consider both nuisance and damage potential from induced earthquakes, as well as the indirect risk of enhancing fault leakage pathways. A phased approach to seismicity management is proposed, in which operations are continuously adapted based on available information and an on-going estimate of risk. At each project stage, specific recommendations are made for (a) monitoring and characterization, (b) modeling and analysis, and (c) site operations. The resulting methodology can help lower seismic risk while ensuring site operations remain practical and cost-effective.

  5. Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

    PubMed

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

    2016-12-01

    The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB).

  6. Prevention of accidental exposure in radiotherapy: the risk matrix approach.

    PubMed

    Vilaragut, J J; Duménigo, C; Delgado, J M; Morales, J; McDonnell, J D; Ferro, R; Ortiz López, P; Ramírez, M L; Pérez Mulas, A; Papadopulos, S; Gonçalves, M; López Morones, R; Sánchez Cayuela, C; Cascajo Castresana, A; Somoano, F; Álvarez, C; Guillén, A; Rodríguez, M; Pereira, P P; Nader, A

    2013-02-01

    Knowledge and lessons from past accidental exposures in radiotherapy are very helpful in finding safety provisions to prevent recurrence. Disseminating lessons is necessary but not sufficient. There may be additional latent risks for other accidental exposures, which have not been reported or have not occurred, but are possible and may occur in the future if not identified, analyzed, and prevented by safety provisions. Proactive methods are available for anticipating and quantifying risk from potential event sequences. In this work, proactive methods, successfully used in industry, have been adapted and used in radiotherapy. Risk matrix is a tool that can be used in individual hospitals to classify event sequences in levels of risk. As with any anticipative method, the risk matrix involves a systematic search for potential risks; that is, any situation that can cause an accidental exposure. The method contributes new insights: The application of the risk matrix approach has identified that another group of less catastrophic but still severe single-patient events may have a higher probability, resulting in higher risk. The use of the risk matrix approach for safety assessment in individual hospitals would provide an opportunity for self-evaluation and managing the safety measures that are most suitable to the hospital's own conditions.

  7. A Preliminary Approach to Adding Indicators of Ecosystem Service Benefits to a Wetlands Functional Assessment Tool

    EPA Science Inventory

    State-level managers and restoration advocates have expressed a desire for approaches that address wetlands services and benefits for two purposes: to demonstrate the benefits of money budgeted for restoration, and to compare proposals when awarding restoration funds for specific...

  8. To Learn More about Learning: The Value-Added Role of Qualitative Approaches to Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Newhart, Daniel W.

    2015-01-01

    As we face increasing accountability in higher education, how we measure student learning should exceed the calls for an account of learning that places students at the center. Qualitative approaches to assessment and theoretical underpinnings gleaned from the qualitative research tradition may provide a way that we can support a more holistic…

  9. A Novel Approach to Overlay Multicasting Schemes for Multi-Hop Ad-Hoc Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, Namhi; Oh, Jejun; Kim, Younghan

    Multicast is an efficient transport mechanism for group-based community communications and mobile ad-hoc networks (MANET) is recently regarded as a promising solution for supporting ubiquitous computing as an underlying network technology. However, it is challenging to deploy the multicast mechanism used in a wired network directly into MANET owing to scarce resources in wireless networks and unpredictable changes in network topology. Several multicast mechanisms have been proposed in the literature to overcome these limitations. In MANET, especially, overlay multicasting schemes present several advantages over network-based multicasting schemes. However we have observed a common limitation of previously proposed overlay multicasting schemes. They introduce redundant data transmissions that waste network bandwidth and the battery of relay nodes. The observation motivated us to propose an efficient way to create and maintain a “semi-overlay structure” that utilizes a few nonmember nodes selected as branch nodes. The proposed scheme, called “SOMRP (Semi-overlay multicast routing protocol),” has been evaluated by using extensive network simulation in two different scenarios, comparing the performance of SOMRP with two previously proposed schemes. Simulation results show that SOMRP outperforms the two schemes in terms of the packet delivery ratio, transmission cost and end-to-end delay.

  10. Territory management an appropriate approach for taking into account dynamic risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandez, M.; Ruegg, J.

    2012-04-01

    The territorial approach in risk analysis is well established in scientific communications in recent years, especially in the francophone literature. It is an especially appropriate approach for exploring a large number of criteria and factors influencing, on the territory, the composition of the vulnerabilities and risks. In these sense, this approach is appropriate to identify not only risks due to natural hazards but also social and environmental risks. Our case study explores the catastrophic landslide, a collapse of 6 millions cubic meters of rock in Los Chorros, in the municipality of San Cristobal Verapaz-Guatemala, in January 2009. We demonstrate that the same natural hazard has different consequences within this territory and may also increase or even create new vulnerabilities and risks for the population. The analysis shows that the same event can endanger various aspects of the territory: resources, functions (agriculture, or houses uses for example) and allocations and highlights the different types of vulnerabilities that land users (i.e., farmers, merchants transport drivers) face. To resolve a post-disaster situation, the actors choose one vulnerability among a set of vulnerabilities (in a multi-vulnerability context) and with this choice they define their own acceptable risk limits. To give an example, the transport driver choose to reduce the economic vulnerability when going to the local market and crossing the landslide (physical vulnerability). In the context of a developing country with weak development and limited resources, land users that become the Risk managers after the disaster are compelled to prioritize between different actions for reducing risks This study provides a novel approach to risk management by adding a political science and geography dimension through the territory approach for improving our understanding of multi-hazard and multi-risk management. Based on findings from this case study, this work asserts that risk is not

  11. A quality risk management model approach for cell therapy manufacturing.

    PubMed

    Lopez, Fabio; Di Bartolo, Chiara; Piazza, Tommaso; Passannanti, Antonino; Gerlach, Jörg C; Gridelli, Bruno; Triolo, Fabio

    2010-12-01

    International regulatory authorities view risk management as an essential production need for the development of innovative, somatic cell-based therapies in regenerative medicine. The available risk management guidelines, however, provide little guidance on specific risk analysis approaches and procedures applicable in clinical cell therapy manufacturing. This raises a number of problems. Cell manufacturing is a poorly automated process, prone to operator-introduced variations, and affected by heterogeneity of the processed organs/tissues and lot-dependent variability of reagent (e.g., collagenase) efficiency. In this study, the principal challenges faced in a cell-based product manufacturing context (i.e., high dependence on human intervention and absence of reference standards for acceptable risk levels) are identified and addressed, and a risk management model approach applicable to manufacturing of cells for clinical use is described for the first time. The use of the heuristic and pseudo-quantitative failure mode and effect analysis/failure mode and critical effect analysis risk analysis technique associated with direct estimation of severity, occurrence, and detection is, in this specific context, as effective as, but more efficient than, the analytic hierarchy process. Moreover, a severity/occurrence matrix and Pareto analysis can be successfully adopted to identify priority failure modes on which to act to mitigate risks. The application of this approach to clinical cell therapy manufacturing in regenerative medicine is also discussed.

  12. An innovative approach of risk planning for space programs.

    PubMed

    Ray, P

    2000-07-01

    According to the current rule-based risk management approach at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the effort is directed to contain all identified risks of a program. The identification of hazards and mitigation effort proceeds along with the development of the system hardware, till all the tradable resources for a program is exhausted. In this process, no conscious effort is made to evaluate risks and associated cost, and the final design is likely to have undesirable residual risks. This approach also results in allocating a significant amount of resources to gain only marginal mitigation of hazard and leave some undesirable hazards in the system due to the budget limitation. The approach in the proposed knowledge-based risk planning system makes a conscious attempt to trade risk with other resources, e.g., schedule, cost, reliability, performance, and others in a judicious and cost-effective way. A knowledge of the feasible option sets requiring high incremental cost for a marginal gain in hazard reduction helps the management to make decision for residual risk that falls within an acceptable range for an option set.

  13. A risk-driven approach for subsurface site characterization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Barros, F. P. J.; Rubin, Y.

    2008-01-01

    We present a probabilistic framework to addressing adverse human health effects due to groundwater contamination. One of the main challenges in health risk assessment is in relating it to subsurface data acquisition and to improvement in our understanding of human physiological responses to contamination. In this paper we propose to investigate this problem through an approach that integrates flow, transport and human health risk models with hydrogeological characterization. A human health risk cumulative distribution function is analytically developed to account for both uncertainty and variability in hydrogeological as well as human physiological parameters. With our proposed approach, we investigate under which conditions the reduction of uncertainties from flow physics, human physiology and exposure related parameters might contribute to a better understanding of human health risk assessment. Results indicate that the human health risk cumulative distribution function becomes less sensitive to uncertainty in physiological parameters at lower risk values associated with longer traveltimes. We also present a graphical tool that allows to investigate the relative impact of hydrogeological and physiological parameters in human health risk. A metric α that relates hydrogeological uncertainty to physiological uncertainty was developed to help decision makers set priorities in data acquisition. Other results show that the worth of hydrogeological characterization in human health risk depends on the time the contaminant plume takes to cross the control plane and on the exposure duration of the population to certain chemicals.

  14. Risk based tiered approach (RBTASM) for pollution prevention.

    PubMed

    Elves, R G; Sweeney, L M; Tomljanovic, C

    1997-11-01

    Effective management of human health and ecological hazards in the manufacturing and maintenance environment can be achieved by focusing on the risks associated with these operations. The NDCEE Industrial Health Risk Assessment (IHRA) Program is developing a comprehensive approach to risk analysis applied to existing processes and used to evaluate alternatives. The IHRA Risk-Based Tiered Approach (RBTASM) builds on the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) Risk-Based Corrective Action (RBCA) effort to remediate underground storage tanks. Using readily available information, a semi-quantitative ranking of alternatives based on environmental, safety, and occupational health criteria was produced. A Rapid Screening Assessment of alternative corrosion protection products was performed on behalf of the Joint Group on Acquisition Pollution Prevention (JG-APP). Using the RBTASM in pollution prevention alternative selection required higher tiered analysis and more detailed assessment of human health risks under site-specific conditions. This example illustrates the RBTASM for a organic finishing line using three different products (one conventional spray and two alternative powder coats). The human health risk information developed using the RBTASM is considered along with product performance, regulatory, and cost information by risk managers downselecting alternatives for implementation or further analysis.

  15. Residential building codes, affordability, and health protection: a risk-tradeoff approach.

    PubMed

    Hammitt, J K; Belsky, E S; Levy, J I; Graham, J D

    1999-12-01

    Residential building codes intended to promote health and safety may produce unintended countervailing risks by adding to the cost of construction. Higher construction costs increase the price of new homes and may increase health and safety risks through "income" and "stock" effects. The income effect arises because households that purchase a new home have less income remaining for spending on other goods that contribute to health and safety. The stock effect arises because suppression of new-home construction leads to slower replacement of less safe housing units. These countervailing risks are not presently considered in code debates. We demonstrate the feasibility of estimating the approximate magnitude of countervailing risks by combining the income effect with three relatively well understood and significant home-health risks. We estimate that a code change that increases the nationwide cost of constructing and maintaining homes by $150 (0.1% of the average cost to build a single-family home) would induce offsetting risks yielding between 2 and 60 premature fatalities or, including morbidity effects, between 20 and 800 lost quality-adjusted life years (both discounted at 3%) each year the code provision remains in effect. To provide a net health benefit, the code change would need to reduce risk by at least this amount. Future research should refine these estimates, incorporate quantitative uncertainty analysis, and apply a full risk-tradeoff approach to real-world case studies of proposed code changes.

  16. Robust Decision Making Approach to Managing Water Resource Risks (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lempert, R.

    2010-12-01

    The IPCC and US National Academies of Science have recommended iterative risk management as the best approach for water management and many other types of climate-related decisions. Such an approach does not rely on a single set of judgments at any one time but rather actively updates and refines strategies as new information emerges. In addition, the approach emphasizes that a portfolio of different types of responses, rather than any single action, often provides the best means to manage uncertainty. Implementing an iterative risk management approach can however prove difficult in actual decision support applications. This talk will suggest that robust decision making (RDM) provides a particularly useful set of quantitative methods for implementing iterative risk management. This RDM approach is currently being used in a wide variety of water management applications. RDM employs three key concepts that differentiate it from most types of probabilistic risk analysis: 1) characterizing uncertainty with multiple views of the future (which can include sets of probability distributions) rather than a single probabilistic best-estimate, 2) employing a robustness rather than an optimality criterion to assess alternative policies, and 3) organizing the analysis with a vulnerability and response option framework, rather than a predict-then-act framework. This talk will summarize the RDM approach, describe its use in several different types of water management applications, and compare the results to those obtained with other methods.

  17. Impact of rare earth element added filters on the X-ray beam spectra: a Monte Carlo approach.

    PubMed

    Eskandarlou, Amir; Jafari, Amir Abbas; Mohammadi, Mohammad; Zehtabian, Mehdi; Faghihi, Reza; Shokri, Abbas; Pourolajal, Jalal

    2014-01-01

    The effectiveness of added filters including conventional and rare earth materials for dental radiography tasks was investigated using a simulation approach. Current study focuses on the combination of a range of various filters to investigate the reduction of radiation absorbed dose and improving the quality of a radiography image. To simulate the X-ray beam spectrum, a MCNP5 code was applied. Relative intensity, beam quality, and mean energy were investigated for a typical dental radiography machine. The impact of different rare-earth materials with different thicknesses and tube voltages on the X-ray spectrum was investigated. For Aluminum as a conventional filter, the modeled X-ray spectra and HVL values were in a good agreement with those reported by IPEM. The results showed that for a 70 kVp voltage, with an increase of the thickness and atomic number of a given added filters, an increase of HVL values were observed. However, with the increase of the attenuator thickness, X-ray beam intensity decreases. For mean energy, different results were observed. It was also found that rare earth made filters reduce high energy X-ray radiation due to k-edge absorption. This leads to an ideal beam for intra-oral radiography tasks. However, as a disadvantage of rare earth added filters, the reduction of the tube output levels should also be considered.

  18. Approaches for assessing risks to sensitive populations: Lessons learned from evaluating risks in the pediatric populations*

    EPA Science Inventory

    Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a 'tool chest' of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of...

  19. Approaches for Assessing Risks to Sensitive Populations: Lessons Learned from Evaluating Risks in the Pediatric Population

    EPA Science Inventory

    Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a "tool chest" of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of t...

  20. Who takes risks in high-risk sports? A typological personality approach.

    PubMed

    Castanier, Carole; Le Scanff, Christine; Woodman, Tim

    2010-12-01

    We investigated the risk-taking behaviors of 302 men involved in high-risk sports (downhill skiing mountaineering rock climbing, paragliding, or skydiving). The sportsmen were classified using a typological approach to personality based on eight personality types, which were constructed from combinations of neuroticism, extraversion, and conscientiousness. Results showed that personality types with a configuration of low conscientiousness combined with high extraversion and/or high neuroticism (impulsive, hedonistic, insecure) were greater risk-takers. Conversely, personality types with a configuration of high conscientiousness combined with low extraversion and/or high extraversion (skeptic, brooder, entrepreneur) were lower risk-takers. Results are discussed in the context of typology and other approaches to understanding who takes risks in high-risk domains.

  1. Who Takes Risks in High-Risk Sports? A Typological Personality Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Castanier, Carole; Le Scanff, Christine; Woodman, Tim

    2010-01-01

    We investigated the risk-taking behaviors of 302 men involved in high-risk sports (downhill skiing, mountaineering, rock climbing, paragliding, or skydiving). The sportsmen were classified using a typological approach to personality based on eight personality types, which were constructed from combinations of neuroticism, extraversion, and…

  2. Science-Driven Approach to Disaster Risk and Crisis Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.

    2014-12-01

    Disasters due to natural extreme events continue to grow in number and intensity. Disaster risk and crisis management requires long-term planning, and to undertake that planning, a science-driven approach is needed to understand and assess disaster risks and to help in impact assessment and in recovery processes after a disaster. Science is used in assessments and rapid modeling of the disaster impact, in forecasting triggered hazards and risk (e.g., a tsunami or a landslide after a large earthquake), in contacts with and medical treatment of the affected population, and in some other actions. At the stage of response to disaster, science helps to analyze routinely the disaster happened (e.g., the physical processes led to this extreme event; hidden vulnerabilities; etc.) At the stage of recovery, natural scientists improve the existing regional hazard assessments; engineers try to use new science to produce new materials and technologies to make safer houses and infrastructure. At the stage of disaster risk mitigation new scientific methods and approaches are being developed to study natural extreme events; vulnerability of society is periodically investigated, and the measures for increasing the resilience of society to extremes are developed; existing disaster management regulations are improved. At the stage of preparedness, integrated research on disaster risks should be developed to understand the roots of potential disasters. Enhanced forecasting and early warning systems are to be developed reducing predictive uncertainties, and comprehensive disaster risk assessment is to be undertaken at local, regional, national and global levels. Science education should be improved by introducing trans-disciplinary approach to disaster risks. Science can help society by improving awareness about extreme events, enhancing risk communication with policy makers, media and society, and assisting disaster risk management authorities in organization of local and regional

  3. Adding voucher-based incentives to community reinforcement approach improves outcomes during treatment for cocaine dependence.

    PubMed

    García-Fernández, Gloria; Secades-Villa, Roberto; García-Rodríguez, Olaya; Sánchez-Hervás, Emilio; Fernández-Hermida, José R; Higgins, Stephen T

    2011-01-01

    This study compares the efficacy of the Community Reinforcement Approach (CRA) with and without an incentive program for cocaine-dependent patients in Spain. A total of 58 patients were randomly assigned to the CRA or CRA plus vouchers condition. In the CRA plus vouchers group, mean percentage of cocaine-negative samples was 97.07%, versus 79.76% in the no-voucher group. Those treated in the CRA plus vouchers condition also achieved greater improvements in psychosocial functioning than those treated in the CRA condition. The present results show that treatment outcome is better if incentives are delivered contingent upon the submission of cocaine-free urine specimens. 

  4. A new approach to criteria for health risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Goh, Yang Miang

    2012-01-15

    Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is a developing component of the overall impact assessment process and as such needs access to procedures that can enable more consistent approaches to the stepwise process that is now generally accepted in both EIA and HIA. The guidelines developed during this project provide a structured process, based on risk assessment procedures which use consequences and likelihood, as a way of ranking risks to adverse health outcomes from activities subjected to HIA or HIA as part of EIA. The aim is to assess the potential for both acute and chronic health outcomes. The consequences component also identifies a series of consequences for the health care system, depicted as expressions of financial expenditure and the capacity of the health system. These more specific health risk assessment characteristics should provide for a broader consideration of health consequences and a more consistent estimation of the adverse health risks of a proposed development at both the scoping and risk assessment stages of the HIA process. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A more objective approach to health risk assessment is provided. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences for chronic and acute impacts. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences on the health care system. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for event frequency that could impact on health. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach presented is currently being trialled in Australia.

  5. A Monte Carlo simulation approach for flood risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agili, Hachem; Chokmani, Karem; Oubennaceur, Khalid; Poulin, Jimmy; Marceau, Pascal

    2016-04-01

    Floods are the most frequent natural disaster and the most damaging in Canada. The issue of assessing and managing the risk related to this disaster has become increasingly crucial for both local and national authorities. Brigham, a municipality located in southern Quebec Province, is one of the heavily affected regions by this disaster because of frequent overflows of the Yamaska River reaching two to three times per year. Since Irene Hurricane which hit the region in 2011 causing considerable socio-economic damage, the implementation of mitigation measures has become a major priority for this municipality. To do this, a preliminary study to evaluate the risk to which this region is exposed is essential. Conventionally, approaches only based on the characterization of the hazard (e.g. floodplains extensive, flood depth) are generally adopted to study the risk of flooding. In order to improve the knowledge of this risk, a Monte Carlo simulation approach combining information on the hazard with vulnerability-related aspects of buildings has been developed. This approach integrates three main components namely hydrological modeling through flow-probability functions, hydraulic modeling using flow-submersion height functions and the study of buildings damage based on damage functions adapted to the Quebec habitat. The application of this approach allows estimating the annual average cost of damage caused by floods on buildings. The obtained results will be useful for local authorities to support their decisions on risk management and prevention against this disaster.

  6. An improved recombineering approach by adding RecA to lambda Red recombination.

    PubMed

    Wang, Junping; Sarov, Mihail; Rientjes, Jeanette; Fu, Jun; Hollak, Heike; Kranz, Harald; Xie, Wei; Stewart, A Francis; Zhang, Youming

    2006-01-01

    Recombineering is the use of homologous recombination in Escherichia coli for DNA engineering. Of several approaches, use of the lambda phage Red operon is emerging as the most reliable and flexible. The Red operon includes three components: Redalpha, a 5' to 3' exonuclease, Redbeta, an annealing protein, and Redgamma, an inhibitor of the major E. coli exonuclease and recombination complex, RecBCD. Most E. coli cloning hosts are recA deficient to eliminate recombination and therefore enhance the stability of cloned DNAs. However, loss of RecA also impairs general cellular integrity. Here we report that transient RecA co-expression enhances the total number of successful recombinations in bacterial artificial chromosomes (BACs), mostly because the E. coli host is more able to survive the stresses of DNA transformation procedures. We combined this practical improvement with the advantages of a temperature-sensitive version of the low copy pSC101 plasmid to develop a protocol that is convenient and more efficient than any recombineering procedure, for use of either double- or single-stranded DNA, published to date.

  7. Approach for evaluating inundation risks in urban drainage systems.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Zhihua; Chen, Zhihe; Chen, Xiaohong; He, Peiying

    2016-05-15

    Urban inundation is a serious challenge that increasingly confronts the residents of many cities, as well as policymakers. Hence, inundation evaluation is becoming increasingly important around the world. This comprehensive assessment involves numerous indices in urban catchments, but the high-dimensional and non-linear relationship between the indices and the risk presents an enormous challenge for accurate evaluation. Therefore, an approach is hereby proposed to qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate inundation risks in urban drainage systems based on a storm water management model, the projection pursuit method, the ordinary kriging method and the K-means clustering method. This approach is tested using a residential district in Guangzhou, China. Seven evaluation indices were selected and twenty rainfall-runoff events were used to calibrate and validate the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model. The inundation risks in the study area drainage system were evaluated under different rainfall scenarios. The following conclusions are reached. (1) The proposed approach, without subjective factors, can identify the main driving factors, i.e., inundation duration, largest water flow and total flood amount in this study area. (2) The inundation risk of each manhole can be qualitatively analyzed and quantitatively calculated. There are 1, 8, 11, 14, 21, and 21 manholes at risk under the return periods of 1-year, 5-years, 10-years, 20-years, 50-years and 100-years, respectively. (3) The areas of levels III, IV and V increase with increasing rainfall return period based on analyzing the inundation risks for a variety of characteristics. (4) The relationships between rainfall intensity and inundation-affected areas are revealed by a logarithmic model. This study proposes a novel and successful approach to assessing risk in urban drainage systems and provides guidance for improving urban drainage systems and inundation preparedness.

  8. The third spatial dimension risk approach for individual risk and group risk in multiple use of space.

    PubMed

    Suddle, Shahid; Ale, Ben

    2005-08-31

    Buildings above roads and railways are examples of multiple use of space. Safety is one of the critical issues for such projects. Risk analyses can be undertaken to investigate what safety measures that are required to realise these projects. The results of these analyses can also be compared to risk acceptance criteria, if they are applicable. In The Netherlands, there are explicit criteria for acceptability of individual risk and societal risk. Traditionally calculations of individual risk result in contours of equal risk on a map and thus are considered in two-dimensional space only. However, when different functions are layered the third spatial dimension, height, becomes an important parameter. The various activities and structures above and below each other impose mutual risks. There are no explicit norms or policies about how to deal with the individual or group risk approach in the third dimension. This paper proposes an approach for these problems and gives some examples. Finally, the third dimension risk approach is applied in a case study of Bos en Lommer, Amsterdam.

  9. Integrative Approaches to Evaluating Neurotoxicity Data for Risk Assessment.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment classically has been based on single adverse outcomes identified as the Lowest Observable Adverse Effect Level (LOAEL) or the highest dose level in a credible study producing a No Observable Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL). While this approach has been useful overal...

  10. Plenary lecture: innovative modeling approaches applicable to risk assessments

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Proper identification of safe and unsafe food at the processing plant is important for maximizing the public health benefit of food by ensuring both its consumption and safety. Risk assessment is a holistic approach to food safety that consists of four steps: 1) hazard identification; 2) exposure a...

  11. Exposure as Part of a Systems Approach for Assessing Risk

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is facing large challenges in managing environmental chemicals with increasingly complex requirements for assessing risk that push the limits of our current approaches. To address some of these challenges, the National Research Council (NR...

  12. A Holistic Approach for Risk Management During Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, an approach for the identification, assessment, mitigation and continuous management of risks during the process of designing a space mission is presented. This approach has been developed by observing the risk patterns that occur at the Project Design Center of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (TeamX) which develops conceptual, concurrent design of Space Missions. TeamX develops an end-to-end conceptual design of a Space Mission in a matter of one or two weeks. As the risk chair in TeamX, the author has had the opportunity to observe the risk patterns that occur during design over the course of many design sessions. This paper introduces an abstraction and generalization of those patterns. Risk is defined as anything that can go wrong, along with its approximate likelihood and consequence. The indicators, and causes, and effects of these risks are cross cutting across the multiple levels of people and processes involved in the design, and the actual design product itself.

  13. Protection goals in environmental risk assessment: a practical approach.

    PubMed

    Garcia-Alonso, Monica; Raybould, Alan

    2014-12-01

    Policy protection goals are set up in most countries to minimise harm to the environment, humans and animals caused by human activities. Decisions on whether to approve new agricultural products, like pesticides or genetically modified (GM) crops, take into account these policy protection goals. To support decision-making, applications for approval of commercial uses of GM crops usually comprise an environmental risk assessment (ERA). These risk assessments are analytical tools, based on science, that follow a conceptual model that includes a problem formulation step where policy protection goals are considered. However, in most countries, risk assessors face major problems in that policy protection goals set in the legislation are stated in very broad terms and are too ambiguous to be directly applicable in ERAs. This means that risk assessors often have to interpret policy protection goals without clear guidance on what effects would be considered harmful. In this paper we propose a practical approach that may help risk assessors to translate policy protection goals into unambiguous (i.e., operational) protection goals and to establish relevant assessment endpoints and risk hypotheses that can be used in ERAs. Examples are provided to show how this approach can be applied to two areas of environmental concern relevant to the ERAs of GM crops.

  14. BRAFO tiered approach for Benefit-Risk Assessment of Foods.

    PubMed

    Hoekstra, Jeljer; Hart, Andy; Boobis, Alan; Claupein, Erika; Cockburn, Andrew; Hunt, Alistair; Knudsen, Ib; Richardson, David; Schilter, Benoît; Schütte, Katrin; Torgerson, Paul R; Verhagen, Hans; Watzl, Bernhard; Chiodini, Alessandro

    2012-11-01

    BRAFO stands for Benefit-Risk Analysis for Foods. This European Commission funded project aims at developing a framework that allows quantitative comparison of human health risks and benefits of foods and food compounds based on a common scale of measurement. A methodology group brought together methodologies from several disciplines relevant to the evaluation of risks and benefits in food. This group reviewed and assembled the methodologies available. They produced this guidance document that describes a tiered ('stepwise') approach for performing a risk and benefit assessment of foods. This process starts with pre-assessment and problem formulation to set the scope of the assessment. This includes defining two scenarios, the reference and an alternative that are compared in the assessment. The approach consists of four tiers. In many cases, a lower tier assessment in which risks and benefits are qualitatively evaluated may be sufficient to show a clear difference between the health impacts of the two scenarios. In other cases, increasingly sophisticated methods to integrate risks and benefits quantitatively are used at higher tiers to assess the net health impact.

  15. Governance of environmental risk: new approaches to managing stakeholder involvement.

    PubMed

    Benn, Suzanne; Dunphy, Dexter; Martin, Andrew

    2009-04-01

    Disputes concerning industrial legacies such as the disposal of toxic wastes illustrate changing pressures on corporations and governments. Business and governments are now confronted with managing the expectations of a society increasingly aware of the social and environmental impacts and risks associated with economic development and demanding more equitable distribution and democratic management of such risks. The closed managerialist decision-making of the powerful bureaucracies and corporations of the industrial era is informed by traditional management theory which cannot provide a framework for the adequate governance of these risks. Recent socio-political theories have conceptualised some key themes that must be addressed in a more fitting approach to governance. We identify more recent management and governance theory which addresses these themes and develop a process-based approach to governance of environmental disputes that allows for the evolving nature of stakeholder relations in a highly complex multiple stakeholder arena.

  16. Risk-based approach to petroleum hydrocarbon remediation. Research study

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, R.N.; Haas, P.; Faile, M.; Taffinder, S.

    1994-12-31

    The risk-based approach utilizes tools developed under the BTEX, Intrinsic Remediation (natural attenuation), Bioslurper, and Bioventing Initiatives of the Air Force Center for Environmental Excellence Technology Transfer Division (AFCEE/ERT) to construct a risk-based cost-effective approach to the cleanup of petroleum contaminated sites. The AFCEE Remediation Matrix (Enclosure 1) identifies natural attenuation as the first remediation alternative for soil and ground water contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons. The intrinsic remediation (natural attenuation) alternative requires a scientifically defensible risk assessment based on contaminant sources, pathways, and receptors. For fuel contaminated sites, the first step is to determine contaminants of interest. For the ground water pathway (usually considered most important by regulators), this will normally be the most soluble, mobile, and toxic compounds, namely benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, and o, m, p, xylene (BTEX).

  17. Holistic Approach to Risk Management Allows School Districts To Maximize Their Investments.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bambino, Robert; Carruthers, J. Brett; Markott, Frank

    2003-01-01

    Describes the basic components of risk management, elements of a school-specific risk management program, and the value-added services provided by insurance carriers and other educational support organizations. (PKP)

  18. Perception of risks from electromagnetic fields: A psychometric evaluation of a risk-communication approach

    SciTech Connect

    MacGregor, D.G.; Slovic, P. ); Morgan, M.G. )

    1994-10-01

    Potential health risks from exposure to power-frequency electromagnetic fields (EMF) have become an issue of significant public concern. This study evaluates a brochure designed to communicate EMF health risks from a scientific perspective. The study utilized a pretest-posttest design in which respondents judged various sources of EMF (and other) health and safety risks, both before reaching the brochure and after. Respondents assessed risks on dimensions similar to those utilized in previous studies of risk perception. In addition, detailed ratings were made that probed respondents' beliefs about the possible causal effects of EMF exposure. The findings suggest that naive beliefs about the potential of EMF exposure to cause harm were highly influenced by specific content elements of the brochure. The implications for using risk-communication approaches based on communicating scientific uncertainty are discussed. 19 refs., 1 fig., 11 tabs.

  19. Risks, scientific uncertainty and the approach of applying precautionary principle.

    PubMed

    Lo, Chang-fa

    2009-03-01

    The paper intends to clarify the nature and aspects of risks and scientific uncertainty and also to elaborate the approach of application of precautionary principle for the purpose of handling the risk arising from scientific uncertainty. It explains the relations between risks and the application of precautionary principle at international and domestic levels. In the situations where an international treaty has admitted the precautionary principle and in the situation where there is no international treaty admitting the precautionary principle or enumerating the conditions to take measures, the precautionary principle has a role to play. The paper proposes a decision making tool, containing questions to be asked, to help policymakers to apply the principle. It also proposes a "weighing and balancing" procedure to help them decide the contents of the measure to cope with the potential risk and to avoid excessive measures.

  20. Lignocellulose: A sustainable material to produce value-added products with a zero waste approach-A review.

    PubMed

    Arevalo-Gallegos, Alejandra; Ahmad, Zanib; Asgher, Muhammad; Parra-Saldivar, Roberto; Iqbal, Hafiz M N

    2017-02-27

    A novel facility from the green technologies to integrate biomass-based carbohydrates, lignin, oils and other materials extraction and transformation into a wider spectrum of marketable and value-added products with a zero waste approach is reviewed. With ever-increasing scientific knowledge, worldwide economic and environmental consciousness, demands of legislative authorities and the manufacture, use, and removal of petrochemical-based by-products, from the last decade, there has been increasing research interests in the value or revalue of lignocellulose-based materials. The potential characteristics like natural abundance, renewability, recyclability, and ease of accessibility all around the year, around the globe, all makes residual biomass as an eco-attractive and petro-alternative candidate. In this context, many significant research efforts have been taken into account to change/replace petroleum-based economy into a bio-based economy, with an aim to develop a comprehensively sustainable, socially acceptable, and eco-friendly society. The present review work mainly focuses on various aspects of bio-refinery as a sustainable technology to process lignocellulose 'materials' into value-added products. Innovations in the bio-refinery world are providing, a portfolio of sustainable and eco-efficient products to compete in the market presently dominated by the petroleum-based products, and therefore, it is currently a subject of intensive research.

  1. Future trends in flood risk in Indonesia - A probabilistic approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muis, Sanne; Guneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Ward, Philip

    2014-05-01

    Indonesia is one of the 10 most populous countries in the world and is highly vulnerable to (river) flooding. Catastrophic floods occur on a regular basis; total estimated damages were US 0.8 bn in 2010 and US 3 bn in 2013. Large parts of Greater Jakarta, the capital city, are annually subject to flooding. Flood risks (i.e. the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability) are increasing due to rapid increases in exposure, such as strong population growth and ongoing economic development. The increase in risk may also be amplified by increasing flood hazards, such as increasing flood frequency and intensity due to climate change and land subsidence. The implementation of adaptation measures, such as the construction of dykes and strategic urban planning, may counteract these increasing trends. However, despite its importance for adaptation planning, a comprehensive assessment of current and future flood risk in Indonesia is lacking. This contribution addresses this issue and aims to provide insight into how socio-economic trends and climate change projections may shape future flood risks in Indonesia. Flood risk were calculated using an adapted version of the GLOFRIS global flood risk assessment model. Using this approach, we produced probabilistic maps of flood risks (i.e. annual expected damage) at a resolution of 30"x30" (ca. 1km x 1km at the equator). To represent flood exposure, we produced probabilistic projections of urban growth in a Monte-Carlo fashion based on probability density functions of projected population and GDP values for 2030. To represent flood hazard, inundation maps were computed using the hydrological-hydraulic component of GLOFRIS. These maps show flood inundation extent and depth for several return periods and were produced for several combinations of GCMs and future socioeconomic scenarios. Finally, the implementation of different adaptation strategies was incorporated into the model to explore to what extent adaptation may be able to

  2. Temperature dependence of vibrational modes of CH3CC(ads) and I(ads) coadsorbed on Ag(111): ab initio molecular dynamics approach.

    PubMed

    Lin, Jyh Shing; Lu, Shao-Yu; Tseng, Po-Jung; Chou, Wen-Chi

    2012-05-15

    Ab initio molecular dynamics simulations accompanied by a Fourier transform of the dipole moment (aligned perpendicular to the surface) autocorrelation function are implemented to investigate the temperature-dependent infrared (IR) active vibrational modes of CH3C(β)C(α)(ads) and I(ads) when coadsorbed on an Ag(111) surface at 200 and 400 K, respectively. The analytic scheme of the Fourier transform of a structural coordinate autocorrelation function is used to identify two distinguishable IR active peaks of C(β)C(α) stretching, which are characterized by two types of dynamic motion of adsorbed CH3C(β)C(α)(ads) at 200 K, namely, the motion of the tilted CC(β)C(α) axis and the motion of the stand-up CC(β)C(α) axis. These two recognisable IR active peaks of C(β)C(α) stretching are gradually merged into one peak as a result of the dominant motion of the stand-up CC(β)C(α) axis as the temperature increases from 200 to 400 K. The calculated intensities of the IR active peaks of the asymmetrical deformation mode of CH3 and the asymmetrical stretching mode of CH3, with their dynamic dipole moments nearly perpendicular to the CC(β)C(α) axis, become relatively weak; however, the symmetrical deformation mode of CH3 and the symmetrical stretching mode of CH3, with their dynamic dipole moments randomly directed away from the CC(β)C(α) axis, will not have direct correspondence between the intensities of their IR active peaks and the angle between the Ag(111) surface and the CC(β)C(α) axis as the temperature increases from 200 to 400 K. Finally, the increased flipping from the motion of the tilted CC(β)C(α) axis to the motion of the stand-up CC(β)C(α) axis followed by its diffusion, resulting from the increasing temperature from 200 to 400 K or even higher, seems to be the initial event that initiates the alkyne self-coupling reaction that

  3. Experimental approaches for evaluating the invasion risk of biofuel crops

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flory, S. Luke; Lorentz, Kimberly A.; Gordon, Doria R.; Sollenberger, Lynn E.

    2012-12-01

    There is growing concern that non-native plants cultivated for bioenergy production might escape and result in harmful invasions in natural areas. Literature-derived assessment tools used to evaluate invasion risk are beneficial for screening, but cannot be used to assess novel cultivars or genotypes. Experimental approaches are needed to help quantify invasion risk but protocols for such tools are lacking. We review current methods for evaluating invasion risk and make recommendations for incremental tests from small-scale experiments to widespread, controlled introductions. First, local experiments should be performed to identify conditions that are favorable for germination, survival, and growth of candidate biofuel crops. Subsequently, experimental introductions in semi-natural areas can be used to assess factors important for establishment and performance such as disturbance, founder population size, and timing of introduction across variable habitats. Finally, to fully characterize invasion risk, experimental introductions should be conducted across the expected geographic range of cultivation over multiple years. Any field-based testing should be accompanied by safeguards and monitoring for early detection of spread. Despite the costs of conducting experimental tests of invasion risk, empirical screening will greatly improve our ability to determine if the benefits of a proposed biofuel species outweigh the projected risks of invasions.

  4. Cumulative Risk Assessment Toolbox: Methods and Approaches for the Practitioner

    PubMed Central

    MacDonell, Margaret M.; Haroun, Lynne A.; Teuschler, Linda K.; Rice, Glenn E.; Hertzberg, Richard C.; Butler, James P.; Chang, Young-Soo; Clark, Shanna L.; Johns, Alan P.; Perry, Camarie S.; Garcia, Shannon S.; Jacobi, John H.; Scofield, Marcienne A.

    2013-01-01

    The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1) planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2) environmental fate and transport; (3) exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4) toxicity analysis; and (5) risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities. PMID:23762048

  5. From Lipids to Inflammation: New Approaches to Reducing Atherosclerotic Risk.

    PubMed

    Shapiro, Michael D; Fazio, Sergio

    2016-02-19

    The introduction of statins ≈ 30 years ago ushered in the era of lipid lowering as the most effective way to reduce risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Nonetheless, residual risk remains high, and statin intolerance is frequently encountered in clinical practice. After a long dry period, the field of therapeutics targeted to lipids and atherosclerosis has entered a renaissance. Moreover, the demonstration of clinical benefits from the addition of ezetimibe to statin therapy in subjects with acute coronary syndromes has renewed the enthusiasm for the cholesterol hypothesis and the hope that additional agents that lower low-density lipoprotein will decrease risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Drugs in the orphan disease category are now available for patients with the most extreme hypercholesterolemia. Furthermore, discovery and rapid translation of a novel biological pathway has given rise to a new class of cholesterol-lowering drugs, the proprotein convertase subtilisin kexin-9 inhibitors. Trials of niacin added to statin have failed to demonstrate cardiac benefits, and 3 cholesterol ester transfer protein inhibitors have also failed to reduce atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk, despite producing substantial increases in HDL levels. Although the utility of triglyceride-lowering therapies remains uncertain, 2 large clinical trials are testing the influence of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids on atherosclerotic events in hypertriglyceridemia. Novel antisense therapies targeting apolipoprotein C-III (for triglyceride reduction) and apo(a) (for lipoprotein(a) reduction) are showing a promising trajectory. Finally, 2 large clinical trials are formally putting the inflammatory hypothesis of atherosclerosis to the test and may open a new avenue for cardiovascular disease risk reduction.

  6. A missing data approach to semi-competing risks problems.

    PubMed

    Dignam, James J; Wieand, Kelly; Rathouz, Paul J

    2007-02-20

    For event time data involving multiple mutually exclusive competing causes of failure, classic competing risks results show that marginal survival distributions are not identifiable. In a related instance, one or more failure modes may be observed provided that the failure events occur in a specific order. In such situations, sometimes referred to as semi-competing risks problems, the observations may under realistic assumptions lend information about parameters of interest that would be nonidentifiable in the strict competing risks case. Here, we present an approach that makes use of partially observable multiple modes of failures to obtain an estimate of the marginal distribution of one event type that may occur prior to the occurrence of another event type or be precluded by it. We apply the proposed method to the problem of estimating the distribution of time to tumour recurrence at specific sites among breast cancer patients participating in randomized clinical trials.

  7. Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System

    SciTech Connect

    Gehlhaus, Martin W.; Gift, Jeffrey S.; Hogan, Karen A.; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M.; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

    2011-07-15

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment.

  8. [Outsourcing in long-term care: a risk management approach].

    PubMed

    Guimarães, Cristina Machado; Carvalho, José Crespo de

    2012-05-01

    This article seeks to investigate outsourcing decisions in supply chain management of healthcare organizations, namely the motives and constraints behind the decision, the selection criteria for activities to be outsourced to third parties, the type of possible agreements, and the impact of this decision on the organization per se. A case study of the start-up phase of a Long-term Care unit with an innovative approach and high levels of customization was conducted to understand the outsourcing process in a start-up context (not in the standard context of organizational change) and a risk evaluation matrix was created for outsourcing activities in order to define and implement a performance monitoring process. This study seeks to understand how to evaluate and assess the risks of an outsourcing strategy and proposes a monitoring model using risk management tools. It was shown that the risk management approach can be a solution for monitoring outsourcing in the organizational start-up phase. Conclusions concerning dissatisfaction with the results of outsourcing strategies adopted are also presented.

  9. A performance-based approach to landslide risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romeo, R. W.

    2009-04-01

    An approach for the risk assessment based on a probabilistic analysis of the performance of structures threatened by landslides is shown and discussed. The risk is a possible loss due to the occurrence of a potentially damaging event. Analytically the risk is the probability convolution of hazard, which defines the frequency of occurrence of the event (i.e., the demand), and fragility that defines the capacity of the system to withstand the event given its characteristics (i.e., severity) and those of the exposed goods (vulnerability), that is: Risk=p(D>=d|S,V) The inequality sets a damage (or loss) threshold beyond which the system's performance is no longer met. Therefore a consistent approach to risk assessment should: 1) adopt a probabilistic model which takes into account all the uncertainties of the involved variables (capacity and demand), 2) follow a performance approach based on given loss or damage thresholds. The proposed method belongs to the category of the semi-empirical ones: the theoretical component is given by the probabilistic capacity-demand model; the empirical component is given by the observed statistical behaviour of structures damaged by landslides. Two landslide properties alone are required: the area-extent and the type (or kinematism). All other properties required to determine the severity of landslides (such as depth, speed and frequency) are derived via probabilistic methods. The severity (or intensity) of landslides, in terms of kinetic energy, is the demand of resistance; the resistance capacity is given by the cumulative distribution functions of the limit state performance (fragility functions) assessed via damage surveys and cards compilation. The investigated limit states are aesthetic (of nominal concern alone), functional (interruption of service) and structural (economic and social losses). The damage probability is the probabilistic convolution of hazard (the probability mass function of the frequency of occurrence of given

  10. Clinical Assessment of Risk Management: an INtegrated Approach (CARMINA).

    PubMed

    Tricarico, Pierfrancesco; Tardivo, Stefano; Sotgiu, Giovanni; Moretti, Francesca; Poletti, Piera; Fiore, Alberto; Monturano, Massimo; Mura, Ida; Privitera, Gaetano; Brusaferro, Silvio

    2016-08-08

    Purpose - The European Union recommendations for patient safety calls for shared clinical risk management (CRM) safety standards able to guide organizations in CRM implementation. The purpose of this paper is to develop a self-evaluation tool to measure healthcare organization performance on CRM and guide improvements over time. Design/methodology/approach - A multi-step approach was implemented including: a systematic literature review; consensus meetings with an expert panel from eight Italian leader organizations to get to an agreement on the first version; field testing to test instrument feasibility and flexibility; Delphi strategy with a second expert panel for content validation and balanced scoring system development. Findings - The self-assessment tool - Clinical Assessment of Risk Management: an INtegrated Approach includes seven areas (governance, communication, knowledge and skills, safe environment, care processes, adverse event management, learning from experience) and 52 standards. Each standard is evaluated according to four performance levels: minimum; monitoring; outcomes; and improvement actions, which resulted in a feasible, flexible and valid instrument to be used throughout different organizations. Practical implications - This tool allows practitioners to assess their CRM activities compared to minimum levels, monitor performance, benchmarking with other institutions and spreading results to different stakeholders. Originality/value - The multi-step approach allowed us to identify core minimum CRM levels in a field where no consensus has been reached. Most standards may be easily adopted in other countries.

  11. Mediterranean Storms: An Integrated Approach of Risk Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karageorgou, H.; Riza, E.; Linos, A.; Papanikolaou, D.

    2010-09-01

    Disaster by UN definition is "a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society, involving widespread human, material, economic, or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using only its own resources". Mediterranean storms induce flash floods caused by excessive amounts of rainfall within a short lasting period of time. The intensity and duration of precipitation, region geomorphology, urbanization and different governmental emergency management structures trigger different consequences between Mediterranean countries. The integrated approach in management of storm risk represents a holistic perspective including interactions between government, science and technology institutions, developing agencies, private sector, NGOs and public. Local authorities and national government are responsible for the design, preparation and decision on storm risk management policies and strategies considering scientific risk identifying, assessing and understanding. Efficient governance management requires satisfied response to early warning systems, functionality of the affected systems upon which society depends and appropriate focus on variable interest, beliefs, values and ideologies between social groups. Also an appropriate balancing of benefits and costs in an efficient and equitable manner is important for the governance risk management. Natural sciences in corporation with the engineering science have developed effective early prediction, warning and monitoring systems on storm and flood risk. The health sciences use prediction systems for health related hazards and consequences and the social sciences research estimates the human resilience during disasters and the factors which affect and determine the human behavior. Also social sciences survey the response of public to early warning messages, the appropriate communicative methods to distributing messages and mechanisms to improve public

  12. Risk management measures for chemicals: the "COSHH essentials" approach.

    PubMed

    Garrod, A N I; Evans, P G; Davy, C W

    2007-12-01

    "COSHH essentials" was developed in Great Britain to help duty holders comply with the Control of Substances Hazardous to Health (COSHH) Regulations. It uses a similar approach to that described in the new European "REACH" Regulation (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals; EC No. 1907/2006 of the European Parliament), insofar as it identifies measures for managing the risk for specified exposure scenarios. It can therefore assist REACH duty holders with the identification and communication of appropriate risk-management measures. The technical basis for COSHH essentials is explained in the original papers published in the Annals of Occupational Hygiene. Its details will, therefore, not be described here; rather, its ability to provide a suitable means for communicating risk-management measures will be explored. COSHH essentials is a simple tool based on an empirical approach to risk assessment and risk management. The output is a "Control Guidance Sheet" that lists the "dos" and "don'ts" for control in a specific task scenario. The guidance in COSHH essentials recognises that exposure in the workplace will depend not just on mechanical controls, but also on a number of other factors, including administrative and behavioural controls, such as systems of work, supervision and training. In 2002, COSHH essentials was made freely available via the internet (http://www.coshh-essentials.org.uk/). This electronic delivery enabled links to be made between product series that share tasks, such as drum filling, and with ancillary guidance, such as setting up health surveillance for work with a respiratory sensitiser. COSHH essentials has proved to be a popular tool for communicating good control practice. It has attracted over 1 million visits to its site since its launch. It offers a common benchmark of good practice for chemical users, manufacturers, suppliers and importers, as well as regulators and health professionals.

  13. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System State-Added Questions: Leveraging an Existing Surveillance System to Improve Knowledge of Women's Reproductive Health.

    PubMed

    Boulet, Sheree L; Warner, Lee; Adamski, Alys; Smith, Ruben A; Burley, Kim; Grigorescu, Violanda

    2016-06-01

    As the prevalence of chronic conditions among women of reproductive age continues to rise, studies assessing the intersection of chronic disease and women's reproductive health status are increasingly needed. However, many data systems collect only limited information on women's reproductive health, thereby hampering the appraisal of risk and protective factors across the life span. One way to expand the study of women's health with minimal investment in time and resources is to integrate questions on reproductive health into existing surveillance systems. In 2013, previously validated questions on women's self-reported reproductive history, use of contraception, and infertility were added to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) by seven states (Connecticut, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Ohio, Texas, and Utah); all female respondents aged 18-50 years were included in the pool of respondents for these state-added questions. Of 8691 women who completed the questions, 13.2% reported ever experiencing infertility and 59.8% of those at risk for unintended pregnancy reported using contraception at last intercourse. The information garnered from the state-added reproductive health questions can be augmented with the BRFSS core questions on health-related risk behaviors, chronic conditions, and use of preventive services. Expanding existing data collection systems with supplemental questions on women's reproductive health can provide important information on risk factors and outcomes that may not be available from other sources.

  14. Geospatial modeling approach to monument construction using Michigan from A.D. 1000–1600 as a case study

    PubMed Central

    Howey, Meghan C. L.; Palace, Michael W.; McMichael, Crystal H.

    2016-01-01

    Building monuments was one way that past societies reconfigured their landscapes in response to shifting social and ecological factors. Understanding the connections between those factors and monument construction is critical, especially when multiple types of monuments were constructed across the same landscape. Geospatial technologies enable past cultural activities and environmental variables to be examined together at large scales. Many geospatial modeling approaches, however, are not designed for presence-only (occurrence) data, which can be limiting given that many archaeological site records are presence only. We use maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt), which works with presence-only data, to predict the distribution of monuments across large landscapes, and we analyze MaxEnt output to quantify the contributions of spatioenvironmental variables to predicted distributions. We apply our approach to co-occurring Late Precontact (ca. A.D. 1000–1600) monuments in Michigan: (i) mounds and (ii) earthwork enclosures. Many of these features have been destroyed by modern development, and therefore, we conducted archival research to develop our monument occurrence database. We modeled each monument type separately using the same input variables. Analyzing variable contribution to MaxEnt output, we show that mound and enclosure landscape suitability was driven by contrasting variables. Proximity to inland lakes was key to mound placement, and proximity to rivers was key to sacred enclosures. This juxtaposition suggests that mounds met local needs for resource procurement success, whereas enclosures filled broader regional needs for intergroup exchange and shared ritual. Our study shows how MaxEnt can be used to develop sophisticated models of past cultural processes, including monument building, with imperfect, limited, presence-only data. PMID:27330115

  15. IWGT report on quantitative approaches to genotoxicity risk ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This is the second of two reports from the International Workshops on Genotoxicity Testing (IWGT) Working Group on Quantitative Approaches to Genetic Toxicology Risk Assessment (the QWG). The first report summarized the discussions and recommendations of the QWG related to the need for quantitative dose–response analysis of genetic toxicology data, the existence and appropriate evaluation of threshold responses, and methods to analyze exposure-response relationships and derive points of departure (PoDs) from which acceptable exposure levels could be determined. This report summarizes the QWG discussions and recommendations regarding appropriate approaches to evaluate exposure-related risks of genotoxic damage, including extrapolation below identified PoDs and across test systems and species. Recommendations include the selection of appropriate genetic endpoints and target tissues, uncertainty factors and extrapolation methods to be considered, the importance and use of information on mode of action, toxicokinetics, metabolism, and exposure biomarkers when using quantitative exposure-response data to determine acceptable exposure levels in human populations or to assess the risk associated with known or anticipated exposures. The empirical relationship between genetic damage (mutation and chromosomal aberration) and cancer in animal models was also examined. It was concluded that there is a general correlation between cancer induction and mutagenic and/or clast

  16. The Prediflood database. A new tool for an integrated approach to historical floods in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula), AD 1033-2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barriendos, Mariano; Carles Balasch Solanes, Josep; Tuset, Jordi; Lluís Ruiz-Bellet, Josep

    2014-05-01

    Available information of historical floods can improve the management of hydroclimatic hazards. This approach is useful in ungauged basins or with short instrumental data series. On the other hand, flood risk is increasing due to both the expansion of human land occupation and the modification of rainfall patterns in the present global climatic change scenario. Within the Prediflood Project, we have designed an integrated database of historical floods in Catalonia with the aim to feed data to: 1) Meteorological reconstruction and modelling. 2) Hydrological and hydraulic reconstruction. 3) Human impacts evaluation, of these floods. The firsts steps of the database design focus on spatial location and on the quality of the data sources in three levels: 1) Historical documentary sources and newspapers contemporary with the floods. 2) Local historiography. 3) Technical reports. After the application of historiographical methodologies, more than 2300 flood records have been added to the database so far. Despite the completion of the database is still a work in progress, the firsts analyses are already underway and focus on the largest floods with catastrophic effects simultaneously on more than 15 catchments: November 1617, October 1787, September 1842, May 1853, September 1874, January 1898, October 1907, October 1940, September 1962, November 1982, October 1994 and others.

  17. Added sugar, sugar-sweetened foods and beverages and risk of pancreatic cancer in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study

    PubMed Central

    Bao, Ying; Stolzenberg-Solomon, Rachael; Jiao, Li; Silverman, Debra T.; Subar, Amy F.; Park, Yikyung; Leitzmann, Michael F.; Hollenbeck, Albert; Schatzkin, Arthur; Michaud, Dominique S.

    2012-01-01

    Background Although hyperglycemia, hyperinsulinemia and insulin resistance have been hypothesized to be involved in the development of pancreatic cancer, results from epidemiologic studies on added sugar intake are inconclusive. Objective Our objective was to investigate whether the consumption of total added sugar, sugar-sweetened foods and beverages is associated with pancreatic cancer risk. Design We prospectively examined 487922 men and women aged 50–71 years and free of cancer and diabetes in 1995–96. Total added dietary sugar intake in teaspoons per day (based on USDA’s Pyramid Servings Database) was assessed with a food frequency questionnaire. Relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated with adjustment for total energy and potential confounding factors. Results During an average 7.2 years of follow-up, 1258 incident pancreatic cancer cases were ascertained. The median intakes for the lowest and highest quintiles of total added sugar intake were 12.6 g/day and 96.2 g/day. No overall increased risk of pancreatic cancer was observed in men or women with high intake of total added sugar or sugar-sweetened foods and beverages. For men and women combined, the multivariate RRs of the highest versus lowest intake categories were 0.85 (95% CI: 0.68, 1.06; P trend= 0.07) for total added sugar, 1.01 (95% CI: 0.82,1.23; P trend= 0.58) for sweets, 0.98 (95% CI: 0.82,1.18; P trend= 0.49) for dairy desserts, 1.12 (95% CI: 0.91,1.39; P trend= 0.35) for sugar added to coffee and tea, and 1.01 (95% CI: 0.77,1.31; P trend= 0.76) for sugar-sweetened soft drinks. Conclusion Our results do not support the hypothesis that consumption of added sugar, or sugar-sweetened foods and beverages is associated with overall risk of pancreatic cancer. PMID:18689380

  18. Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots: Transition to a Regional Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lerner-Lam, A.; Chen, R.; Dilley, M.

    2005-12-01

    economic losses, are also limited. On one hand the data are adequate for general identification of areas of the globe that are at relatively higher single- or multiple-hazard risk than other areas. On the other hand they are inadequate for understanding the absolute levels of risk posed by any specific hazard or combination of hazards. Nevertheless it is possible to assess in general terms the exposure and potential magnitude of losses to people and their assets in these areas. Such information, although not ideal, can still be very useful for informing a range of disaster prevention and preparedness measures, including prioritization of resources, targeting of more localized and detailed risk assessments, implementation of risk-based disaster management and emergency response strategies, and development of long-term plans for poverty reduction and economic development. In addition to summarizing the results of the Hotspots Project, we discuss data collection issues and suggest methodological approaches for making the transition to more detailed regional and national studies. Preliminary results for several regional case studies will be presented.

  19. Genetics pathway-based imaging approaches in Chinese Han population with Alzheimer's disease risk.

    PubMed

    Bai, Feng; Liao, Wei; Yue, Chunxian; Pu, Mengjia; Shi, Yongmei; Yu, Hui; Yuan, Yonggui; Geng, Leiyu; Zhang, Zhijun

    2016-01-01

    The tau hypothesis has been raised with regard to the pathophysiology of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is associated with a high risk for developing AD. However, no study has directly examined the brain topological alterations based on combined effects of tau protein pathway genes in MCI population. Forty-three patients with MCI and 30 healthy controls underwent resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) in Chinese Han, and a tau protein pathway-based imaging approaches (7 candidate genes: 17 SNPs) were used to investigate changes in the topological organisation of brain activation associated with MCI. Impaired regional activation is related to tau protein pathway genes (5/7 candidate genes) in patients with MCI and likely in topologically convergent and divergent functional alterations patterns associated with genes, and combined effects of tau protein pathway genes disrupt the topological architecture of cortico-cerebellar loops. The associations between the loops and behaviours further suggest that tau protein pathway genes do play a significant role in non-episodic memory impairment. Tau pathway-based imaging approaches might strengthen the credibility in imaging genetic associations and generate pathway frameworks that might provide powerful new insights into the neural mechanisms that underlie MCI.

  20. Farms adaptation to changes in flood risk: a management approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pivot, Jean-Marc; Martin, Philippe

    2002-10-01

    Creating flood expansion areas e.g. for the protection of urban areas from flooding involves a localised increase in risk which may require farmers to be compensated for crop damage or other losses. With this in mind, the paper sets out the approach used to study the problem and gives results obtained from a survey of farms liable to flooding in central France. The approach is based on a study of decisions made by farmers in situations of uncertainty, using the concept of 'model of action'. The results show that damage caused to farming areas by flooding should be considered both at field level and at farm level. The damage caused to the field depends on the flood itself, the fixed characteristics of the field, and the plant species cultivated. However, the losses to the farm taken as a whole can differ considerably from those for the flooded field, due to 'knock-on' effects on farm operations which depend on the internal organization, the availability of production resources, and the farmer's objectives, both for the farm as a whole and for its individual enterprises. Three main strategies regarding possible flood events were identified. Reasons for choosing one of these include the way the farmer perceives the risk and the size of the area liable to flooding. Finally, the formalisation of farm system management in the face of uncertainty, especially due to flooding, enables compensation to be calculated for farmers whose land is affected by the creation of flood expansion areas.

  1. A dynamical approach to evaluate risk in resource management.

    PubMed

    Hatton, I A; McCann, K S; Umbanhowar, J; Rasmussen, J B

    2006-06-01

    With the depletion of many natural resources, we are growing aware of the need to understand the risks that stem from different management decisions. Here, we outline an approach to test the ability of different dynamical signatures to characterize time-series data: how likely is it that a natural population is declining, sustainable, or increasing, and at what rates are these temporal changes likely occurring? These dynamical signatures can serve as a robust foundation on which to formulate alternative scenarios in a decision analysis. They take account of much of the uncertainty in model parameters and have precise mathematical underpinnings with associated risks. We present methods to evaluate the likelihood of these scenarios, and ways that the analysis can be graphically represented. We discuss different ecological factors such as climate variability, life history, ecosystem interactions, and a changing population age structure, all of which impact the dynamics of natural populations. Considering the types of dynamical signatures that emerge from these factors can change our understanding of risk and the decisions that we make.

  2. A risk-based approach to liquid effluent monitoring

    SciTech Connect

    Hull, L.C.

    1995-10-01

    DOE Order 5400.1 identifies six objectives of a liquid effluent monitoring program. A strategy is proposed that meets these objective in one of two ways: (1) by showing that effluent concentrations are below concentration limits set by permits or are below concentrations that could cause environmental problems or (2) by showing that concentrations in effluent have not changed from a period when treatment processes were in control and there were no unplanned releases. The intensity of liquid effluent monitoring should be graded to the importance of the source being monitored. This can be accomplished by determining the risk posed by the source. A definition of risk is presented that defines risk in terms of the statistical probability of exceeding a release limit and the time available to recover from an exceedance of a release limit. Three examples are presented that show this approach to grading an effluent monitoring program can be implemented at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory and will reduce monitoring requirements.

  3. The US FDA and animal cloning: risk and regulatory approach.

    PubMed

    Rudenko, Larisa; Matheson, John C

    2007-01-01

    The Food and Drug Administration's (FDA's) Center for Veterinary Medicine issued a voluntary request to producers of livestock clones not to introduce food from clones or their progeny into commerce until the agency had assessed whether production of cattle, swine, sheep, or goats by somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT) posed any unique risks to the animal(s) involved in the process, humans, or other animals by consuming food from those animals, compared with any other assisted reproductive technology (ART) currently in use. Following a comprehensive review, no anomalies were observed in animals produced by cloning that have not also been observed in animals produced by other ARTs and natural mating. Further systematic review on the health of, and composition of meat and milk from, cattle, swine, and goat clones and the progeny of cattle and sheep did not result in the identification of any food-consumption hazards. The agency therefore concluded that food from cattle, swine, and goat clones was as safe to eat as food from animals of those species derived by conventional means. The agency also concluded that food from the progeny of the clone of any species normally consumed for food is as safe to eat as those animals. The article also describes the methodology used by the agency to analyze data and draw these conclusions, the plans the agency has proposed to manage any identified risks, and the risk communication approaches the agency has used.

  4. Integrated approach for coastal hazards and risks in Sri Lanka

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcin, M.; Desprats, J. F.; Fontaine, M.; Pedreros, R.; Attanayake, N.; Fernando, S.; Siriwardana, C. H. E. R.; de Silva, U.; Poisson, B.

    2008-06-01

    The devastating impact of the tsunami of 26 December 2004 on the shores of the Indian Ocean recalled the importance of knowledge and the taking into account of coastal hazards. Sri Lanka was one of the countries most affected by this tsunami (e.g. 30 000 dead, 1 million people homeless and 70% of the fishing fleet destroyed). Following this tsunami, as part of the French post-tsunami aid, a project to establish a Geographical Information System (GIS) on coastal hazards and risks was funded. This project aims to define, at a pilot site, a methodology for multiple coastal hazards assessment that might be useful for the post-tsunami reconstruction and for development planning. This methodology could be applied to the whole coastline of Sri Lanka. The multi-hazard approach deals with very different coastal processes in terms of dynamics as well as in terms of return period. The first elements of this study are presented here. We used a set of tools integrating a GIS, numerical simulations and risk scenario modelling. While this action occurred in response to the crisis caused by the tsunami, it was decided to integrate other coastal hazards into the study. Although less dramatic than the tsunami these remain responsible for loss of life and damage. Furthermore, the establishment of such a system could not ignore the longer-term effects of climate change on coastal hazards in Sri Lanka. This GIS integrates the physical and demographic data available in Sri Lanka that is useful for assessing the coastal hazards and risks. In addition, these data have been used in numerical modelling of the waves generated during periods of monsoon as well as for the December 2004 tsunami. Risk scenarios have also been assessed for test areas and validated by field data acquired during the project. The results obtained from the models can be further integrated into the GIS and contribute to its enrichment and to help in better assessment and mitigation of these risks. The coastal-hazards-and-risks

  5. Vascular risk factors and Alzheimer's disease pathogenesis: are conventional pharmacological approaches protective for cognitive decline progression?

    PubMed

    Safouris, Apostolos; Psaltopoulou, Theodora; Sergentanis, Theodoros N; Boutati, Eleni; Kapaki, Elisabeth; Tsivgoulis, Georgios

    2015-01-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common cause of dementia, accounting for more than half of cases with cognitive impairment. With numbers of patients expected to rise sharply over the following years in parallel with the ageing of population, there is intense clinical interest in discovering modifiable risk factors that may contribute to the increasing prevalence of AD. Accumulating data from in vitro and epidemiological studies have highlighted the vascular component of AD and raised hope that treatment of vascular risk factors could eventually lead to primary prevention of AD. Among all the possible pathologic processes that have been tested for an association with AD, diabetes, hypertension and dyslipidemia are the most prominent. Here, we will briefly review the data highlighting a potential correlation of these diseases with AD. Then, we will present observational studies and clinical trials that assessed the impact of their respective approved medical therapies on AD incidence. We conclude by providing clinical information for the physician on potentially effective and non-effective medical treatments. Further research is ongoing and time will show whether AD will cease to be considered a pure, non-preventable neurodegenerative process or whether vascular risk factor management may also result in primary AD prevention.

  6. Risk-Based Probabilistic Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tong, Michael T.

    2002-01-01

    In an era of shrinking development budgets and resources, where there is also an emphasis on reducing the product development cycle, the role of system assessment, performed in the early stages of an engine development program, becomes very critical to the successful development of new aeropropulsion systems. A reliable system assessment not only helps to identify the best propulsion system concept among several candidates, it can also identify which technologies are worth pursuing. This is particularly important for advanced aeropropulsion technology development programs, which require an enormous amount of resources. In the current practice of deterministic, or point-design, approaches, the uncertainties of design variables are either unaccounted for or accounted for by safety factors. This could often result in an assessment with unknown and unquantifiable reliability. Consequently, it would fail to provide additional insight into the risks associated with the new technologies, which are often needed by decision makers to determine the feasibility and return-on-investment of a new aircraft engine. In this work, an alternative approach based on the probabilistic method was described for a comprehensive assessment of an aeropropulsion system. The statistical approach quantifies the design uncertainties inherent in a new aeropropulsion system and their influences on engine performance. Because of this, it enhances the reliability of a system assessment. A technical assessment of a wave-rotor-enhanced gas turbine engine was performed to demonstrate the methodology. The assessment used probability distributions to account for the uncertainties that occur in component efficiencies and flows and in mechanical design variables. The approach taken in this effort was to integrate the thermodynamic cycle analysis embedded in the computer code NEPP (NASA Engine Performance Program) and the engine weight analysis embedded in the computer code WATE (Weight Analysis of Turbine

  7. An Entropy Approach to Disclosure Risk Assessment: Lessons from Real Applications and Simulated Domains

    PubMed Central

    Airoldi, Edoardo M.; Bai, Xue; Malin, Bradley A.

    2011-01-01

    leveraging the statistical characteristics of a visit distribution, as opposed to person-level data. It is computationally efficient and superior to existing risk assessment methods, which rely on ad hoc assessment that are often computationally expensive and unreliable. We evaluate our approach on a range of location access patterns in simulated environments. Our results demonstrate the approach is effective at estimating trail disclosure risks and the amount of self-information contained in a distributed system is one of the main driving factors. PMID:21647242

  8. An Entropy Approach to Disclosure Risk Assessment: Lessons from Real Applications and Simulated Domains.

    PubMed

    Airoldi, Edoardo M; Bai, Xue; Malin, Bradley A

    2011-04-01

    leveraging the statistical characteristics of a visit distribution, as opposed to person-level data. It is computationally efficient and superior to existing risk assessment methods, which rely on ad hoc assessment that are often computationally expensive and unreliable. We evaluate our approach on a range of location access patterns in simulated environments. Our results demonstrate the approach is effective at estimating trail disclosure risks and the amount of self-information contained in a distributed system is one of the main driving factors.

  9. Interactive approach to segment organs at risk in radiotherapy treatment planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dolz, Jose; Kirisli, Hortense A.; Viard, Romain; Massoptier, Laurent

    2014-03-01

    Accurate delineation of organs at risk (OAR) is required for radiation treatment planning (RTP). However, it is a very time consuming and tedious task. The use in clinic of image guided radiation therapy (IGRT) becomes more and more popular, thus increasing the need of (semi-)automatic methods for delineation of the OAR. In this work, an interactive segmentation approach to delineate OAR is proposed and validated. The method is based on the combination of watershed transformation, which groups small areas of similar intensities in homogeneous labels, and graph cuts approach, which uses these labels to create the graph. Segmentation information can be added in any view - axial, sagittal or coronal -, making the interaction with the algorithm easy and fast. Subsequently, this information is propagated within the whole volume, providing a spatially coherent result. Manual delineations made by experts of 6 OAR - lungs, kidneys, liver, spleen, heart and aorta - over a set of 9 computed tomography (CT) scans were used as reference standard to validate the proposed approach. With a maximum of 4 interactions, a Dice similarity coefficient (DSC) higher than 0.87 was obtained, which demonstrates that, with the proposed segmentation approach, only few interactions are required to achieve similar results as the ones obtained manually. The integration of this method in the RTP process may save a considerable amount of time, and reduce the annotation complexity.

  10. Current approaches to cyanotoxin risk assessment and risk management around the globe

    PubMed Central

    Ibelings, Bas W.; Backer, Lorraine C.; Kardinaal, W. Edwin A.; Chorus, Ingrid

    2015-01-01

    Toxic cyanobacteria became more widely recognized as a potential health hazard in the 1990s, and in 1998 the World Health Organization (WHO) first published a provisional Guideline Value of 1 μg L−1 for microcystin-LR in drinking-water. In this publication we compare risk assessment and risk management of toxic cyanobacteria in 17 countries across all five continents. We focus on the three main (oral) exposure vehicles to cyanotoxins: drinking-water, water related recreational and freshwater seafood. Most countries have implemented the provisional WHO Guideline Value, some as legally binding standard, to ensure the distribution of safe drinking-water with respect to microcystins. Regulation, however, also needs to address the possible presence of a wide range of other cyanotoxins and bioactive compounds, for which no guideline values can be derived due to insufficient toxicological data. The presence of microcystins (commonly expressed as microcystin-LR equivalents) may be used as proxy for overall guidance on risk management, but this simplification may miss certain risks, for instance from dissolved fractions of cylindrospermopsin and cyanobacterial neurotoxins. An alternative approach, often taken for risk assessment and management in recreational waters, is to regulate cyanobacterial presence – as cell numbers or biomass – rather than individual toxins. Here, many countries have implemented a two or three tier alert level system with incremental severity. These systems define the levels where responses are switched from Surveillance to Alert and finally to Action Mode and they specify the short-term actions that follow. Surface bloom formation is commonly judged to be a significant risk because of the elevated concentration of microcystins in a scum. Countries have based their derivations of legally binding standards, guideline values, maximally allowed concentrations (or limits named otherwise) on very similar scientific methodology, but underlying

  11. Novel Molecular Imaging Approaches to Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Risk Stratification.

    PubMed

    Toczek, Jakub; Meadows, Judith L; Sadeghi, Mehran M

    2016-01-01

    Selection of patients for abdominal aortic aneurysm repair is currently based on aneurysm size, growth rate, and symptoms. Molecular imaging of biological processes associated with aneurysm growth and rupture, for example, inflammation and matrix remodeling, could improve patient risk stratification and lead to a reduction in abdominal aortic aneurysm morbidity and mortality. (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography and ultrasmall superparamagnetic particles of iron oxide magnetic resonance imaging are 2 novel approaches to abdominal aortic aneurysm imaging evaluated in clinical trials. A variety of other tracers, including those that target inflammatory cells and proteolytic enzymes (eg, integrin αvβ3 and matrix metalloproteinases), have proven effective in preclinical models of abdominal aortic aneurysm and show great potential for clinical translation.

  12. Approaches to uncertainty analysis in probabilistic risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Bohn, M.P.; Wheeler, T.A.; Parry, G.W.

    1988-01-01

    An integral part of any probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is the performance of an uncertainty analysis to quantify the uncertainty in the point estimates of the risk measures considered. While a variety of classical methods of uncertainty analysis exist, application of these methods and developing new techniques consistent with existing PRA data bases and the need for expert (subjective) input has been an area of considerable interest since the pioneering Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) in 1975. This report presents the results of a critical review of existing methods for performing uncertainty analyses for PRAs, with special emphasis on identifying data base limitations on the various methods. Both classical and Baysian approaches have been examined. This work was funded by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission in support of its ongoing full-scope PRA of the LaSalle nuclear power station. Thus in addition to the review, this report contains recommendations for a suitable uncertainty analysis methodology for the LaSalle PRA.

  13. Assessing risk factors for dental caries: a statistical modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Trottini, Mario; Bossù, Maurizio; Corridore, Denise; Ierardo, Gaetano; Luzzi, Valeria; Saccucci, Matteo; Polimeni, Antonella

    2015-01-01

    The problem of identifying potential determinants and predictors of dental caries is of key importance in caries research and it has received considerable attention in the scientific literature. From the methodological side, a broad range of statistical models is currently available to analyze dental caries indices (DMFT, dmfs, etc.). These models have been applied in several studies to investigate the impact of different risk factors on the cumulative severity of dental caries experience. However, in most of the cases (i) these studies focus on a very specific subset of risk factors; and (ii) in the statistical modeling only few candidate models are considered and model selection is at best only marginally addressed. As a result, our understanding of the robustness of the statistical inferences with respect to the choice of the model is very limited; the richness of the set of statistical models available for analysis in only marginally exploited; and inferences could be biased due the omission of potentially important confounding variables in the model's specification. In this paper we argue that these limitations can be overcome considering a general class of candidate models and carefully exploring the model space using standard model selection criteria and measures of global fit and predictive performance of the candidate models. Strengths and limitations of the proposed approach are illustrated with a real data set. In our illustration the model space contains more than 2.6 million models, which require inferences to be adjusted for 'optimism'.

  14. Hairy AdS solitons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anabalón, Andrés; Astefanesei, Dumitru; Choque, David

    2016-11-01

    We construct exact hairy AdS soliton solutions in Einstein-dilaton gravity theory. We examine their thermodynamic properties and discuss the role of these solutions for the existence of first order phase transitions for hairy black holes. The negative energy density associated to hairy AdS solitons can be interpreted as the Casimir energy that is generated in the dual filed theory when the fermions are antiperiodic on the compact coordinate.

  15. A quantitative risk analysis approach to port hydrocarbon logistics.

    PubMed

    Ronza, A; Carol, S; Espejo, V; Vílchez, J A; Arnaldos, J

    2006-01-16

    A method is presented that allows quantitative risk analysis to be performed on marine hydrocarbon terminals sited in ports. A significant gap was identified in the technical literature on QRA for the handling of hazardous materials in harbours published prior to this work. The analysis is extended to tanker navigation through port waters and loading and unloading facilities. The steps of the method are discussed, beginning with data collecting. As to accident scenario identification, an approach is proposed that takes into account minor and massive spills due to loading arm failures and tank rupture. Frequency estimation is thoroughly reviewed and a shortcut approach is proposed for frequency calculation. This allows for the two-fold possibility of a tanker colliding/grounding at/near the berth or while navigating to/from the berth. A number of probability data defining the possibility of a cargo spill after an external impact on a tanker are discussed. As to consequence and vulnerability estimates, a scheme is proposed for the use of ratios between the numbers of fatal victims, injured and evacuated people. Finally, an example application is given, based on a pilot study conducted in the Port of Barcelona, where the method was tested.

  16. Risk evaluation of uranium mining: A geochemical inverse modelling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rillard, J.; Zuddas, P.; Scislewski, A.

    2011-12-01

    It is well known that uranium extraction operations can increase risks linked to radiation exposure. The toxicity of uranium and associated heavy metals is the main environmental concern regarding exploitation and processing of U-ore. In areas where U mining is planned, a careful assessment of toxic and radioactive element concentrations is recommended before the start of mining activities. A background evaluation of harmful elements is important in order to prevent and/or quantify future water contamination resulting from possible migration of toxic metals coming from ore and waste water interaction. Controlled leaching experiments were carried out to investigate processes of ore and waste (leached ore) degradation, using samples from the uranium exploitation site located in Caetité-Bahia, Brazil. In experiments in which the reaction of waste with water was tested, we found that the water had low pH and high levels of sulphates and aluminium. On the other hand, in experiments in which ore was tested, the water had a chemical composition comparable to natural water found in the region of Caetité. On the basis of our experiments, we suggest that waste resulting from sulphuric acid treatment can induce acidification and salinization of surface and ground water. For this reason proper storage of waste is imperative. As a tool to evaluate the risks, a geochemical inverse modelling approach was developed to estimate the water-mineral interaction involving the presence of toxic elements. We used a method earlier described by Scislewski and Zuddas 2010 (Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 74, 6996-7007) in which the reactive surface area of mineral dissolution can be estimated. We found that the reactive surface area of rock parent minerals is not constant during time but varies according to several orders of magnitude in only two months of interaction. We propose that parent mineral heterogeneity and particularly, neogenic phase formation may explain the observed variation of the

  17. The effect of sex on risk of mortality during the Black Death in London, A.D. 1349-1350.

    PubMed

    DeWitte, Sharon N

    2009-06-01

    The Black Death of 1347-1351 was one of the most devastating epidemics in human history, and though it is frequently assumed that the epidemic killed indiscriminately, recent research suggests that the disease was selective, at least with respect to frailty. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the Black Death was similarly selective with respect to biological sex-that is, did either sex face an elevated risk during the epidemic or were men and women at equal risk of dying? A sample of 298 victims of the Black Death, from the East Smithfield cemetery in London, is compared to a pre-Black Death normal mortality sample of 194 individuals from two Danish urban cemeteries, St Mikkel Church (Viborg) and St Albani Church (Odense). To assess the effect of sex on risk of death, sex is modeled as a covariate affecting the Gompertz-Makeham model of adult mortality. The results suggest that sex did not strongly affect risk of death in either the normal mortality or Black Death samples. These results are important for improving our understanding of Black Death mortality patterns. This is essential for understanding the effects the Black Death had on European populations, and the methods used here can potentially be informatively applied to investigations of other episodes of epidemic diseases in past populations.

  18. A Preliminary Investigation into the Added Value of Multiple Gates and Informants in Universal Screening for Behavioral and Emotional Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dowdy, Erin; Dever, Bridget V.; Raines, Tara C.; Moffa, Kathryn

    2016-01-01

    Mental health screening in schools is a progressive practice to identify students for prevention and intervention services. Multiple gating procedures, in which students are provided more intensive assessments following initial identification of risk, are aligned with prevention science and poised to enhance multi-tiered systems of support. Yet,…

  19. The Evidence for a Risk-Based Approach to Australian Higher Education Regulation and Quality Assurance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edwards, Fleur

    2012-01-01

    This paper explores the nascent field of risk management in higher education, which is of particular relevance in Australia currently, as the Commonwealth Government implements its plans for a risk-based approach to higher education regulation and quality assurance. The literature outlines the concept of risk management and risk-based approaches…

  20. A Biomechanical Approach to Assessing Hip Fracture Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ellman, Rachel

    2009-01-01

    Bone loss in microgravity is well documented, but it is difficult to quantify how declines in bone mineral density (BMD) contribute to an astronaut's overall risk of fracture upon return. This study uses a biomechanical approach to assessing hip fracture risk, or Factor of Risk (Phi), which is defined as the ratio of applied load to bone strength. All long-duration NASA astronauts from Expeditions 1-18 were included in this study (n=25), while crewmembers who flew twice (n=2) were treated as separate subjects. Bone strength was estimated based on an empirical relationship between areal BMD at the hip, as measured by DXA, and failure load, as determined by mechanical testing of cadaver femora. Fall load during a sideways fall was calculated from a previously developed biomechanical model, which takes into account body weight, height, gender, and soft tissue thickness overlying the lateral aspect of the hip that serves to attenuate the impact force. While no statistical analyses have been performed yet, preliminary results show that males in this population have a higher FOR than females, with a post- flight Phi of 0.87 and 0.36, respectively. FOR increases 5.1% from preflight to postflight, while only one subject crossed the fracture "threshold" of Phi = 1, for a total of 2 subjects with a postflight Phi > 1. These results suggest that men may be at greater risk for hip fracture due largely in part to their relatively thin soft tissue padding as compared to women, since soft tissue thickness has the highest correlation (R(exp 2)= .53) with FOR of all subject-specific parameters. Future work will investigate changes in FOR during recovery to see if baseline risk levels are restored upon return to 1-g activity. While dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is the most commonly used clinical measure of bone health, it fails to provide compartment-specific information that is useful in assessing changes to bone quality as a result of microgravity exposure. Peripheral

  1. Modified risk graph method using fuzzy rule-based approach.

    PubMed

    Nait-Said, R; Zidani, F; Ouzraoui, N

    2009-05-30

    The risk graph is one of the most popular methods used to determine the safety integrity level for safety instrumented functions. However, conventional risk graph as described in the IEC 61508 standard is subjective and suffers from an interpretation problem of risk parameters. Thus, it can lead to inconsistent outcomes that may result in conservative SILs. To overcome this difficulty, a modified risk graph using fuzzy rule-based system is proposed. This novel version of risk graph uses fuzzy scales to assess risk parameters and calibration may be made by varying risk parameter values. Furthermore, the outcomes which are numerical values of risk reduction factor (the inverse of the probability of failure on demand) can be compared directly with those given by quantitative and semi-quantitative methods such as fault tree analysis (FTA), quantitative risk assessment (QRA) and layers of protection analysis (LOPA).

  2. Inclusion of bioaccumulation in environmental risk assessment: An integrated approach

    SciTech Connect

    Kloepper-Sams, P.J.; Cowan, C.E.; Larson, R.J.; Versteeg, D.J.

    1995-12-31

    Historically, the potential to bioaccumulate has been ignored in risk assessments or assessed in isolation. Bioaccumulation can be included in an integrated approach by posing two questions. (1) Is the duration of acute aquatic testing sufficient to identify effects due to direct exposure? This can be addressed by comparing T95 (time to reach 95% of steady state) with test duration. (2) Do dietary sources contribute substantially to exposure; is so, will this affect organisms higher in the food web? This can be addressed in stages. (1) A suitable QSAR can be employed to estimate the Bioconcentration Factor (BCF). Because aquatic dietary exposure to non-ionic, poorly metabolized organics is not significant for compounds with log K{sub ow} below {approximately}4.5--5, only compounds with BCF > 1,000 (log K{sub ow} {approximately}4.3) are further evaluated. (2) Predicted BCFs may be refined by measuring the predictive parameter (e.g., K{sub ow}) or the BCF. (3) If the ``parent`` BCF remains > 1,000, a food chain model is employed to derive bioaccumulation factors (BAF) which may be achieved in the food web of interest. The BAF is then combined with Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC) values to derive a PECoral or concentration available in prey. This is then compared with a Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC)oral for consumer organism(s). Mammalian toxicity databases on new and HVP existing chemicals may assist in deriving the PNECoral. (4) Further refinement of the PECoral or PNECoral may be needed. Mitigating circumstances such as metabolism and reduced bioavailability must also be considered. Such an approach may be necessary for a subset of chemicals and would be tailored dependent on chemical use, release, environmental fate -- especially persistence -- and distribution.

  3. Added Sugars

    MedlinePlus

    ... need sugar to function properly. Added sugars contribute zero nutrients but many added calories that can lead to extra pounds or even obesity, thereby reducing heart health. If you think of your daily calorie needs as a budget, you want to “spend” ...

  4. Value Added?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    UCLA IDEA, 2012

    2012-01-01

    Value added measures (VAM) uses changes in student test scores to determine how much "value" an individual teacher has "added" to student growth during the school year. Some policymakers, school districts, and educational advocates have applauded VAM as a straightforward measure of teacher effectiveness: the better a teacher,…

  5. An assessment of national risk: General concepts and overall approach. [carbon fiber utilization in commercial aviation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kalelkar, A. S.

    1979-01-01

    The analysis of risk presented by carbon fiber utilization in commercial aviation is reported. The discussion is presented in three parts: (1) general concepts; (2) overall approach; and (3) risk evaluation and perspective.

  6. Probabilistic Risk-Based Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment Developed

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tong, Michael T.

    2001-01-01

    In an era of shrinking development budgets and resources, where there is also an emphasis on reducing the product development cycle, the role of system assessment, performed in the early stages of an engine development program, becomes very critical to the successful development of new aeropropulsion systems. A reliable system assessment not only helps to identify the best propulsion system concept among several candidates, it can also identify which technologies are worth pursuing. This is particularly important for advanced aeropropulsion technology development programs, which require an enormous amount of resources. In the current practice of deterministic, or point-design, approaches, the uncertainties of design variables are either unaccounted for or accounted for by safety factors. This could often result in an assessment with unknown and unquantifiable reliability. Consequently, it would fail to provide additional insight into the risks associated with the new technologies, which are often needed by decisionmakers to determine the feasibility and return-on-investment of a new aircraft engine.

  7. An Integrated Soft Computing Approach to Hughes Syndrome Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Vilhena, João; Rosário Martins, M; Vicente, Henrique; Grañeda, José M; Caldeira, Filomena; Gusmão, Rodrigo; Neves, João; Neves, José

    2017-03-01

    The AntiPhospholipid Syndrome (APS) is an acquired autoimmune disorder induced by high levels of antiphospholipid antibodies that cause arterial and veins thrombosis, as well as pregnancy-related complications and morbidity, as clinical manifestations. This autoimmune hypercoagulable state, usually known as Hughes syndrome, has severe consequences for the patients, being one of the main causes of thrombotic disorders and death. Therefore, it is required to be preventive; being aware of how probable is to have that kind of syndrome. Despite the updated of antiphospholipid syndrome classification, the diagnosis remains difficult to establish. Additional research on clinically relevant antibodies and standardization of their quantification are required in order to improve the antiphospholipid syndrome risk assessment. Thus, this work will focus on the development of a diagnosis decision support system in terms of a formal agenda built on a Logic Programming approach to knowledge representation and reasoning, complemented with a computational framework based on Artificial Neural Networks. The proposed model allows for improving the diagnosis, classifying properly the patients that really presented this pathology (sensitivity higher than 85%), as well as classifying the absence of APS (specificity close to 95%).

  8. A risk-based approach to flammable gas detector spacing.

    PubMed

    Defriend, Stephen; Dejmek, Mark; Porter, Leisa; Deshotels, Bob; Natvig, Bernt

    2008-11-15

    Flammable gas detectors allow an operating company to address leaks before they become serious, by automatically alarming and by initiating isolation and safe venting. Without effective gas detection, there is very limited defense against a flammable gas leak developing into a fire or explosion that could cause loss of life or escalate to cascading failures of nearby vessels, piping, and equipment. While it is commonly recognized that some gas detectors are needed in a process plant containing flammable gas or volatile liquids, there is usually a question of how many are needed. The areas that need protection can be determined by dispersion modeling from potential leak sites. Within the areas that must be protected, the spacing of detectors (or alternatively, number of detectors) should be based on risk. Detector design can be characterized by spacing criteria, which is convenient for design - or alternatively by number of detectors, which is convenient for cost reporting. The factors that influence the risk are site-specific, including process conditions, chemical composition, number of potential leak sites, piping design standards, arrangement of plant equipment and structures, design of isolation and depressurization systems, and frequency of detector testing. Site-specific factors such as those just mentioned affect the size of flammable gas cloud that must be detected (within a specified probability) by the gas detection system. A probability of detection must be specified that gives a design with a tolerable risk of fires and explosions. To determine the optimum spacing of detectors, it is important to consider the probability that a detector will fail at some time and be inoperative until replaced or repaired. A cost-effective approach is based on the combined risk from a representative selection of leakage scenarios, rather than a worst-case evaluation. This means that probability and severity of leak consequences must be evaluated together. In marine and

  9. Uncertainty characterization approaches for risk assessment of DBPs in drinking water: a review.

    PubMed

    Chowdhury, Shakhawat; Champagne, Pascale; McLellan, P James

    2009-04-01

    The management of risk from disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water has become a critical issue over the last three decades. The areas of concern for risk management studies include (i) human health risk from DBPs, (ii) disinfection performance, (iii) technical feasibility (maintenance, management and operation) of treatment and disinfection approaches, and (iv) cost. Human health risk assessment is typically considered to be the most important phase of the risk-based decision-making or risk management studies. The factors associated with health risk assessment and other attributes are generally prone to considerable uncertainty. Probabilistic and non-probabilistic approaches have both been employed to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment. The probabilistic approaches include sampling-based methods (typically Monte Carlo simulation and stratified sampling) and asymptotic (approximate) reliability analysis (first- and second-order reliability methods). Non-probabilistic approaches include interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and possibility theory. However, it is generally accepted that no single method is suitable for the entire spectrum of problems encountered in uncertainty analyses for risk assessment. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations. In this paper, the feasibility and limitations of different uncertainty analysis approaches are outlined for risk management studies of drinking water supply systems. The findings assist in the selection of suitable approaches for uncertainty analysis in risk management studies associated with DBPs and human health risk.

  10. Towards a systems approach to risk considerations for concurrent design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila; Oberto, Robert E.

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes the new process used by the Project Design Center at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory for the identification, assessment and communication of risk elements throughout the lifecycle of a mission design. This process includes a software tool, 'RAP' that collects and communicates risk information between the various designers and a 'risk expert' who mediates this process. The establishment of this process is an attempt towards the systematic consideration of risk in the design decision making process. Using this process, we are able to better keep track of the risks associated with the design decisions. Furthermore, it helps us develop better risk profiles for the studies under consideration. We aim to refine and expand the current process to enable more thorough risk analysis capabilities in the future.

  11. An initial assessment of the risk approach to antenatal management in Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Somboonsook, B; Wakerman, J; Hattch, C T; Collison, M; Barnes, A; Kyi, W; Karim, R

    1995-09-01

    This study was the first assessment of a nationwide risk approach system to antenatal management introduced to Malaysia in 1989. Three rapid, record-based surveys on three different study groups were conducted to determine risk factor prevalence, accuracy of risk assignment, action after risk assignment and the relationship of risk level and place of delivery. The most frequent risk factors were short birth interval, high parity and first pregnancy. Accuracy of risk assignment was highest at the lowest levels of risk and poorest at the highest levels. Women at the lowest levels of risk were more likely to be seen by a doctor than women at highest risk. These was a trend to deliver in hospital, rather than at home, as level of risk increased; but many women at high risk still delivered at home. Recommendations are made on modifications to the system prior to future evaluation.

  12. Approaches for derivation of environmental quality criteria for substances applied in risk assessment of discharges from offshore drilling operations.

    PubMed

    Altin, Dag; Frost, Tone Karin; Nilssen, Ingunn

    2008-04-01

    In order to achieve the offshore petroleum industries "zero harm" goal to the environment, the environmental impact factor for drilling discharges was developed as a tool to identify and quantify the environmental risks associated with disposal of drilling discharges to the marine environment. As an initial step in this work the main categories of substances associated with drilling discharges and assumed to contribute to toxic or nontoxic stress were identified and evaluated for inclusion in the risk assessment. The selection were based on the known toxicological properties of the substances, or the total amount discharged together with their potential for accumulation in the water column or sediments to levels that could be expected to cause toxic or nontoxic stress to the biota. Based on these criteria 3 categories of chemicals were identified for risk assessment the water column and sediments: Natural organic substances, metals, and drilling fluid chemicals. Several approaches for deriving the environmentally safe threshold concentrations as predicted no effect concentrations were evaluated in the process. For the water column consensus were reached for using the species sensitivity distribution approach for metals and the assessment factor approach for natural organic substances and added drilling chemicals. For the sediments the equilibrium partitioning approach was selected for all three categories of chemicals. The theoretically derived sediment quality criteria were compared to field-derived threshold effect values based on statistical approaches applied on sediment monitoring data from the Norwegian Continental Shelf. The basis for derivation of predicted no effect concentration values for drilling discharges should be consistent with the principles of environmental risk assessment as described in the Technical Guidance Document on Risk Assessment issued by the European Union.

  13. Adding dexmedetomidine to ropivacaine for lumbar plexus and sciatic nerve block for amputation of lower limb in high-risk patient-a case report.

    PubMed

    Wang, Chun-Guang; Ding, Yan-Ling; Han, Ai-Ping; Hu, Chang-Qing; Hao, Shi; Zhang, Fang-Fang; Li, Yong-Wang; Liu, Hu; Han, Zhe; Guo, De-Li; Zhang, Zhi-Qiang

    2015-01-01

    The ischemia necrosis of limb frequently requires surgery of amputation. Lumbar plexus and sciatic nerve block is an ideal intra-operative anesthetic and post-operative antalgic technique for patients of amputation, especially for high-risk patients who have severe cardio-cerebrovascular diseases. However, the duration of analgesia of peripheral nerve block is hardly sufficient to avoid the postoperative pain and the usage of opioids. In this case, a 79-year-old man, with multiple cerebral infarcts, congestive heart failure, atrial flutter and syncope, was treated with an above knee amputation because of ischemia necrosis of his left lower limb. Dexmedetomidine 1 μg/kg was added to 0.33% ropivacaine for lumbar plexus and sciatic nerve block in this case for intra-operative anesthesia and post-operative analgesia. The sensory function was blocked fully for surgery and the duration of analgesia maintained 26 hours with haemodynamic stability and moderate sedation. The patient did not complain pain and require any supplementary analgesics after surgery. This case showed that adding 1 μg/kg dexmedetomidine to ropivacaine for lumbar plexus and sciatic nerve block may be a feasible and safe technique for high-risk patients for lower limb surgery of amputation.

  14. Adding dexmedetomidine to ropivacaine for lumbar plexus and sciatic nerve block for amputation of lower limb in high-risk patient-a case report

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Chun-Guang; Ding, Yan-Ling; Han, Ai-Ping; Hu, Chang-Qing; Hao, Shi; Zhang, Fang-Fang; Li, Yong-Wang; Liu, Hu; Han, Zhe; Guo, De-Li; Zhang, Zhi-Qiang

    2015-01-01

    The ischemia necrosis of limb frequently requires surgery of amputation. Lumbar plexus and sciatic nerve block is an ideal intra-operative anesthetic and post-operative antalgic technique for patients of amputation, especially for high-risk patients who have severe cardio-cerebrovascular diseases. However, the duration of analgesia of peripheral nerve block is hardly sufficient to avoid the postoperative pain and the usage of opioids. In this case, a 79-year-old man, with multiple cerebral infarcts, congestive heart failure, atrial flutter and syncope, was treated with an above knee amputation because of ischemia necrosis of his left lower limb. Dexmedetomidine 1 μg/kg was added to 0.33% ropivacaine for lumbar plexus and sciatic nerve block in this case for intra-operative anesthesia and post-operative analgesia. The sensory function was blocked fully for surgery and the duration of analgesia maintained 26 hours with haemodynamic stability and moderate sedation. The patient did not complain pain and require any supplementary analgesics after surgery. This case showed that adding 1 μg/kg dexmedetomidine to ropivacaine for lumbar plexus and sciatic nerve block may be a feasible and safe technique for high-risk patients for lower limb surgery of amputation. PMID:26550393

  15. Risk assessment for enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations: a fault tree analysis approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Yajun; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.

    2013-08-01

    Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations are often characterised with large capital outlay, long implementation duration, and high risk of failure. In order to avoid ERP implementation failure and realise the benefits of the system, sound risk management is the key. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk assessment approach for ERP system implementation projects based on fault tree analysis, which models the relationship between ERP system components and specific risk factors. Unlike traditional risk management approaches that have been mostly focused on meeting project budget and schedule objectives, the proposed approach intends to address the risks that may cause ERP system usage failure. The approach can be used to identify the root causes of ERP system implementation usage failure and quantify the impact of critical component failures or critical risk events in the implementation process.

  16. Community, State, and Federal Approaches to Cumulative Risk Assessment: Challenges and Opportunities for Integration

    EPA Science Inventory

    Community, state, and federal approaches to conventional and cumulative risk assessment (CRA) were described and compared to assess similarities and differences, and develop recommendations for a consistent CRA approach, acceptable across each level as a rigorous scientific metho...

  17. Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

    PubMed

    Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

    2012-09-01

    Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project.

  18. Adding Laboratory Data to Hospital Claims Data to Improve Risk Adjustment of Inpatient/30-Day Postdischarge Outcomes.

    PubMed

    Pine, Michael; Fry, Donald E; Hannan, Edward L; Naessens, James M; Whitman, Kay; Reband, Agnes; Qian, Feng; Schindler, Joseph; Sonneborn, Mark; Roland, Jaclyn; Hyde, Linda; Dennison, Barbara A

    Numerical laboratory data at admission have been proposed for enhancement of inpatient predictive modeling from administrative claims. In this study, predictive models for inpatient/30-day postdischarge mortality and for risk-adjusted prolonged length of stay, as a surrogate for severe inpatient complications of care, were designed with administrative data only and with administrative data plus numerical laboratory variables. A comparison of resulting inpatient models for acute myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, coronary artery bypass grafting, and percutaneous cardiac interventions demonstrated improved discrimination and calibration with administrative data plus laboratory values compared to administrative data only for both mortality and prolonged length of stay. Improved goodness of fit was most apparent in acute myocardial infarction and percutaneous cardiac intervention. The emergence of electronic medical records should make the addition of laboratory variables to administrative data an efficient and practical method to clinically enhance predictive modeling of inpatient outcomes of care.

  19. A risk-based approach to robotic mission requirements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dias, William C.; Bourke, Roger D.

    1992-01-01

    A NASA Risk Team has developed a method for the application of risk management to the definition of robotic mission requirements for the Space Exploration Initiative. These requirements encompass environmental information, infrastructural emplacement in advance, and either technology testing or system/subsystems demonstration. Attention is presently given to a method for step-by-step consideration and analysis of the risk component inherent in mission architecture, followed by a calculation of the subjective risk level. Mitigation strategies are then applied with the same rules, and a comparison is made.

  20. A peptidomic approach to study the contribution of added casein proteins to the peptide profile in Spanish dry-fermented sausages.

    PubMed

    Mora, Leticia; Escudero, Elizabeth; Aristoy, M-Concepción; Toldrá, Fidel

    2015-11-06

    Peptidomics is a necessary alternative in the analysis of naturally generated peptides in dry-fermented processing. The intense proteolysis occurred during the processing of dry-fermented sausages is due to the action of endopeptidases and exopeptidases from both, endogenous muscle origin and lactic acid bacteria (LAB) added in the starter. Sodium caseinate is frequently used as an additive in this type of products because of its emulsifying properties, and consequently influences the protein profile available during the proteolysis. In this study, a mass spectrometry approach has been used to determine the impact of added sodium caseinate in the final peptide profile as well as to analyse its possible influence in the presence of certain previously described casein-derived bioactive peptides.

  1. Educational Approach to Seismic Risk Mitigation in Indian Himalayas -Hazard Map Making Workshops at High Schools-

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koketsu, K.; Oki, S.; Kimura, M.; Chadha, R. K.; Davuluri, S.

    2014-12-01

    How can we encourage people to take preventive measures against damage risks and empower them to take the right actions in emergencies to save their lives? The conventional approach taken by scientists had been disseminating intelligible information on up-to-date seismological knowledge. However, it has been proven that knowledge alone does not have enough impact to modify people's behaviors in emergencies (Oki and Nakayachi, 2012). On the other hand, the conventional approach taken by practitioners had been to conduct emergency drills at schools or workplaces. The loss of many lives from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake has proven that these emergency drills were not enough to save people's lives, unless they were empowered to assess the given situation on their own and react flexibly. Our challenge is to bridge the gap between knowledge and practice. With reference to best practices observed in Tohoku, such as The Miracles of Kamaishi, our endeavor is to design an effective Disaster Preparedness Education Program that is applicable to other disaster-prone regions in the world, even with different geological, socio-economical and cultural backgrounds. The key concepts for this new approach are 1) empowering individuals to take preventive actions to save their lives, 2) granting community-based understanding of disaster risks and 3) building a sense of reality and relevancy to disasters. With these in mind, we held workshops at some high schools in the Lesser Himalayan Region, combining lectures with an activity called "Hazard Map Making" where students proactively identify and assess the hazards around their living areas and learn practical strategies on how to manage risks. We observed the change of awareness of the students by conducting a preliminary questionnaire survey and interviews after each session. Results strongly implied that the significant change of students' attitudes towards disaster preparedness occurred not by the lectures of scientific knowledge, but

  2. An Adolescent Age Group Approach to Examining Youth Risk Behaviors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oman, Roy F.; McLeroy, Kenneth R.; Vesely, Sara; Aspy, Cheryl B.; Smith, David W.; Penn, David A.

    2002-01-01

    Investigated relationships among youth risk behaviors and demographic factors. Data on risk behaviors (delinquency, truancy, weapon carrying, fighting, sexuality, substance use, demographics, and family structure) were compared within specific demographic factors and by age group for diverse inner-city adolescents. Survey and interview data…

  3. The bottom-up approach to bounding potential low-dose cancer risks from formaldehyde: An update.

    PubMed

    Starr, Thomas B; Swenberg, James A

    2016-06-01

    In 2013, we proposed a novel bottom-up approach to bounding low-dose cancer risks that may result from small exogenous exposures to chemicals that are always present in the body as a result of normal biological processes. The approach utilizes the background cancer risk and the background (endogenous) concentration of a cancer-related exposure biomarker in specific target tissues. After allowing for statistical uncertainty in these two parameters, the ratio of the background risk to background exposure provides a conservative slope factor estimate that can be utilized to bound the added risk that may be associated with incremental exogenous exposures. Our original bottom-up estimates were markedly smaller than those obtained previously by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) with a conventional top-down approach to modeling nasopharyngeal cancer and leukemia mortality data from a US worker cohort. Herein we provide updated bottom-up estimates of risk for these two cancers that are smaller still, and rely upon more robust estimates of endogenous and exogenous formaldehyde-DNA adducts in monkeys and a more robust estimate of the DNA adduct elimination half-life in rats, both obtained very recently. We also re-examine the worker mortality data used by USEPA in developing its estimate of human leukemia incidence from lifetime exposure to 1 ppm airborne formaldehyde. Finally, we compare a new bottom-up slope estimate of the risk of rat nasal cancer with conventional top-down estimates obtained with empirical dose-response modeling of rat nasal cancer bioassay data.

  4. Adding Value to Education for Sustainability in Africa with Inquiry-Based Approaches in Open and Distance Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pretorius, Rudi; Lombard, Andrea; Khotoo, Anisa

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Inquiry-based approaches can potentially enrich sustainability learning in any educational context, more so in open and distance learning (ODL--perceived as theoretically inclined) and in regions of educational need (such as the Global South, of which Africa forms part). The purpose of this paper is to map the benefits and challenges of…

  5. Psychiatrists’ approach to vascular risk assessment in Latin America

    PubMed Central

    Richly, Pablo; López, Pablo; Gleichgerrcht, Ezequiel; Flichtentrei, Daniel; Prats, María; Mastandueno, Ricardo; Bustin, Julián; Cetkovich-Bakmas, Marcelo

    2014-01-01

    AIM: To explore the way in which Latin American psychiatrists approach the screening of vascular risk factors in patients receiving antipsychotic medication. METHODS: This was a descriptive, cross sectional study that surveyed Latin-American physicians to evaluate differences between groups divided in three main sections. The first section included demographic and professional data. The second section asked about the available medical resources: weighing scales, sphygmomanometer and measuring tape. Finally, the third section aimed at looking into the attitudes towards cardiovascular prevention. The latter was also divided into two subsections. In the first one, the questions were about weight, blood pressure and waist perimeter. In the second subsection the questions asked about the proportion of patients: (1) that suffered from overweight and/or obesity; (2) whose lipids and glycemia were controlled by the physician; (3) that were questioned by, and received information from the physician about smoking; and (4) that received recommendations from the physician to engage in regular physical activity. The participants were physicians, users of the medical website Intramed. The visitors were recruited by a banner that invited them to voluntarily access an online self-reported structured questionnaire with multiple options. RESULTS: We surveyed 1185 general physicians and 792 psychiatrists. Regarding basic medical resources, a significantly higher proportion of general physicians claimed to have weighing scales (χ2 = 404.9; P < 0.001), sphygmomanometers (χ2 = 419.3; P < 0.001), and measuring tapes (χ2 = 336.5; P < 0.001). While general physicians measured overweight and metabolic indexes in the general population in a higher proportion than in patients treated with antipsychotics (Z = -11.91; P < 0.001), psychiatrists claimed to measure them in patients medicated with antipsychotics in a higher proportion than in the general population (Z = -3.26; P < 0.001). Also

  6. A Bayesian Approach to Identifying New Risk Factors for Dementia

    PubMed Central

    Wen, Yen-Hsia; Wu, Shihn-Sheng; Lin, Chun-Hung Richard; Tsai, Jui-Hsiu; Yang, Pinchen; Chang, Yang-Pei; Tseng, Kuan-Hua

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Dementia is one of the most disabling and burdensome health conditions worldwide. In this study, we identified new potential risk factors for dementia from nationwide longitudinal population-based data by using Bayesian statistics. We first tested the consistency of the results obtained using Bayesian statistics with those obtained using classical frequentist probability for 4 recognized risk factors for dementia, namely severe head injury, depression, diabetes mellitus, and vascular diseases. Then, we used Bayesian statistics to verify 2 new potential risk factors for dementia, namely hearing loss and senile cataract, determined from the Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. We included a total of 6546 (6.0%) patients diagnosed with dementia. We observed older age, female sex, and lower income as independent risk factors for dementia. Moreover, we verified the 4 recognized risk factors for dementia in the older Taiwanese population; their odds ratios (ORs) ranged from 3.469 to 1.207. Furthermore, we observed that hearing loss (OR = 1.577) and senile cataract (OR = 1.549) were associated with an increased risk of dementia. We found that the results obtained using Bayesian statistics for assessing risk factors for dementia, such as head injury, depression, DM, and vascular diseases, were consistent with those obtained using classical frequentist probability. Moreover, hearing loss and senile cataract were found to be potential risk factors for dementia in the older Taiwanese population. Bayesian statistics could help clinicians explore other potential risk factors for dementia and for developing appropriate treatment strategies for these patients. PMID:27227925

  7. Coherent Risk-Adjusted Decisions Over Time: a Bilevel Programming Approach

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-03-23

    AFRL-AFOSR-VA-TR-2015-0310 Coherent Risk -Adjusted Decisions Over Time: a Bilevel Programming Approach Jonathan Eckstein RUTGERS THE STATE UNIVERSITY...14/2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Final Project Report: Coherent Risk -Adjusted Decisions over Time: a Bilevel Programming Approach 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER...tested two techniques for approximating a time-inconsistent risk -averse objective function with a time-consistent one. We also investigated rolling

  8. COMPUTATIONAL TOXICOLOGY: AN APPROACH FOR PRIORITIZING CHEMICAL RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Characterizing toxic effects for industrial chemicals carries the challenge of focusing resources on the greatest potential risks for human health and the environment. The union of molecular modeling, bioinformatics and simulation of complex systems with emerging technologies suc...

  9. Chemical Mixture Risk Assessment Additivity-Based Approaches

    EPA Science Inventory

    Powerpoint presentation includes additivity-based chemical mixture risk assessment methods. Basic concepts, theory and example calculations are included. Several slides discuss the use of "common adverse outcomes" in analyzing phthalate mixtures.

  10. A Risk-Based Approach to Test and Evaluation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-05-01

    is it to occur (probability, frequency), and what will be the outcome (consequences)? The SAPHIRE software tool also is introduced as a way to...develop those risk concepts dealing with event trees, fault trees, and desired end states. SAPHIRE is a probabilistic risk, and reliability assessment...software tool. SAPHIRE stands for Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations and was developed for the U.S. Nuclear

  11. Adding Value.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Orsini, Larry L.; Hudack, Lawrence R.; Zekan, Donald L.

    1999-01-01

    The value-added statement (VAS), relatively unknown in the United States, is used in financial reports by many European companies. Saint Bonaventure University (New York) has adapted a VAS to make it appropriate for not-for-profit universities by identifying stakeholder groups (students, faculty, administrators/support personnel, creditors, the…

  12. A counterfactual p-value approach for benefit-risk assessment in clinical trials.

    PubMed

    Zeng, Donglin; Chen, Ming-Hui; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Wei, Rachel; Ding, Beiying; Ke, Chunlei; Jiang, Qi

    2015-01-01

    Clinical trials generally allow various efficacy and safety outcomes to be collected for health interventions. Benefit-risk assessment is an important issue when evaluating a new drug. Currently, there is a lack of standardized and validated benefit-risk assessment approaches in drug development due to various challenges. To quantify benefits and risks, we propose a counterfactual p-value (CP) approach. Our approach considers a spectrum of weights for weighting benefit-risk values and computes the extreme probabilities of observing the weighted benefit-risk value in one treatment group as if patients were treated in the other treatment group. The proposed approach is applicable to single benefit and single risk outcome as well as multiple benefit and risk outcomes assessment. In addition, the prior information in the weight schemes relevant to the importance of outcomes can be incorporated in the approach. The proposed CPs plot is intuitive with a visualized weight pattern. The average area under CP and preferred probability over time are used for overall treatment comparison and a bootstrap approach is applied for statistical inference. We assess the proposed approach using simulated data with multiple efficacy and safety endpoints and compare its performance with a stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis approach.

  13. Total Risk Approach in Applying PRA to Criticality Safety

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, S T

    2005-03-24

    As nuclear industry continues marching from an expert-base support to more procedure-base support, it is important to revisit the total risk concept to criticality safety. A key objective of criticality safety is to minimize total criticality accident risk. The purpose of this paper is to assess key constituents of total risk concept pertaining to criticality safety from an operations support perspective and to suggest a risk-informed means of utilizing criticality safety resources for minimizing total risk. A PRA methodology was used to assist this assessment. The criticality accident history was assessed to provide a framework for our evaluation. In supporting operations, the work of criticality safety engineers ranges from knowing the scope and configurations of a proposed operation, performing criticality hazards assessment to derive effective controls, assisting in training operators, response to floor questions, surveillance to ensure implementation of criticality controls, and response to criticality mishaps. In a compliance environment, the resource of criticality safety engineers is increasingly being directed towards tedious documentation effort to meet some regulatory requirements to the effect of weakening the floor support for criticality safety. By applying a fault tree model to identify the major contributors of criticality accidents, a total risk picture is obtained to address relative merits of various actions. Overall, human failure is the key culprit in causing criticality accidents. Factors such as failure to follow procedures, lacks of training, lack of expert support at the floor level etc. are main contributors. Other causes may include lack of effective criticality controls such as inadequate criticality safety evaluation. Not all of the causes are equally important in contributing to criticality mishaps. Applying the limited resources to strengthen the weak links would reduce risk more than continuing emphasis on the strong links of

  14. HACCP-based quality risk management approach to udder health problems on dairy farms

    PubMed Central

    2009-01-01

    Against the background of prevailing udder health problems on dairy farms, this paper discusses a new approach to mastitis control. Current udder health control programmes, such as the 'five-point plan', are highlighted and their drawbacks indicated. The concept and principles of hazard analysis critical control points (HACCP) are introduced. The eight core elements of this concept are dealt with by using the example of a dairy herd with a mastitis problem due to Staphylococcus aureus. The various steps to be taken in the development of a HACCP-based quality risk management programme are illustrated through the application of core elements. Finally, it is shown that the HACCP key words, structure, organisation, planning, communication and formalisation; which do not frequently appear in conventional herd health and production management programmes can contribute to better udder health. The role of the veterinarian can be paramount and of added value, if he/she is willing to invest in new knowledge and skills, such as the HACCP concept, farm economics, animal nutrition, and particularly the role of coach to the dairy farmer in the implementation of preventative measures in relation to udder health. PMID:22082372

  15. HACCP-based quality risk management approach to udder health problems on dairy farms.

    PubMed

    Noordhuizen, Jptm; Cannas da Silva, J

    2009-04-01

    Against the background of prevailing udder health problems on dairy farms, this paper discusses a new approach to mastitis control. Current udder health control programmes, such as the 'five-point plan', are highlighted and their drawbacks indicated. The concept and principles of hazard analysis critical control points (HACCP) are introduced. The eight core elements of this concept are dealt with by using the example of a dairy herd with a mastitis problem due to Staphylococcus aureus. The various steps to be taken in the development of a HACCP-based quality risk management programme are illustrated through the application of core elements. Finally, it is shown that the HACCP key words, structure, organisation, planning, communication and formalisation; which do not frequently appear in conventional herd health and production management programmes can contribute to better udder health. The role of the veterinarian can be paramount and of added value, if he/she is willing to invest in new knowledge and skills, such as the HACCP concept, farm economics, animal nutrition, and particularly the role of coach to the dairy farmer in the implementation of preventative measures in relation to udder health.

  16. Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

    SciTech Connect

    Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

    2006-03-01

    For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

  17. Process waste assessment approach, training and technical assistance for DOE contractors; FY93 report, ADS {number_sign}35303C

    SciTech Connect

    Pemberton, S

    1994-03-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) and its contractors are faced with a large waste management problem as are other industries. One of the tools used in a successful waste minimization pollution prevention (WMin/P2) program is a process waste assessment (PWA). The purpose of this project was to share the Kansas City Plant`s (KCP`s) PWA expertise with other DOE personnel and DOE contractors. This consisted of two major activities: (1) The KCP`s PWA graded approach methodology was modified with the assistance of DOE/Defense Program`s laboratories, and (2) PWA training and technical assistance were provided to interested DOE personnel and DOE contractors. This report documents the FY93 efforts, lesson learned, and future plans for both PWA-related activities.

  18. Overview of groundwater management approaches at salinisation risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polemio, Maurizio; Zuffianò, Livia Emanuela

    2013-04-01

    All natural waters contain dissolved minerals from interactions with atmospheric and soil gases, mixing with other solutions, and/or interactions with the biosphere and lithosphere. In many cases, these processes result in natural waters containing solute or salinity above concentrations recommended for a specified use, which creates significant social and economic problems. Groundwater salinisation can be caused by natural phenomena and anthropogenic activities. For the former case, we can distinguish terrestrial and marine phenomena. Approximately 16% of the total area of continental earth is potentially involved in groundwater salinisation. Seawater intrusion can be considered to be the primary phenomenon to be studied in terms of groundwater salinisation. Three schematic approaches to the protection of groundwater via salinisation mitigation and/or groundwater salinity improvement are described based on the classifications of the primary salinisation sources and focusing on the effect of seawater intrusion. The complexity of these approaches generally increases due to difficulties caused by groundwater quality and quantity degradation and increased demand for quality water. In order from the lowest to the highest complexity, these approaches are the engineering approach, the discharge management approach, and the water and land management approach. The engineering approach is realised on the local or detailed scale with the purpose of controlling the salinisation, optimising the well discharge with specific technical solutions and/or completing works to improve the quality and/or quantity of the discharged fresh groundwater. The discharge management approach encompasses at least an entire coastal aquifer and defines rules concerning groundwater utilisation and well discharge. The water and land management approach should be applied on the regional scale. Briefly, this approach becomes necessary when one or more need creates an overall framework of high

  19. The European strategy on low dose risk research and the role of radiation quality according to the recommendations of the "ad hoc" High Level and Expert Group (HLEG).

    PubMed

    Belli, Mauro; Ottolenghi, Andrea; Weiss, Wolfgang

    2010-08-01

    Health effects of exposures at low doses and/or low dose rates are recognized as requiring intensive research activity to answer several questions. To address these issues at a strategic level in Europe, with the perspective of integrating national and EC efforts (in particular those within the Euratom research programmes), a "European High Level and Expert Group (HLEG) on low dose risk research" was formed and carried out its work during 2008. The Group produced a report published by the European Commission in 2009 and available on the website http://www.hleg.de . The more important research issues identified by the HLEG were as follows: (a) the shape of dose-response for cancer; (b) the tissue sensitivities for cancer induction; (c) the individual variability in cancer risk; (d) the effects of radiation quality (type); (e) the risks from internal radiation exposure; and (f) the risks of, and dose response relationships for, non-cancer diseases. In this paper, the radiation quality issues are especially considered, since they are closely linked to health problems and related radioprotection in space and in emerging radiotherapeutic techniques (i.e., hadrontherapy). The peculiar features of low-fluence, high-LET radiation exposures can question in particular the validity of the radiation-weighting factor (w ( R )) approach. Specific strategies are therefore needed to assess such risks. A multi-scale/systems biology approach, based on mechanistic studies coordinated with molecular-epidemiological studies, is considered essential to elucidate differences and similarities between specific effects of low- and high-LET radiation.

  20. Review of Qualitative Approaches for the Construction Industry: Designing a Risk Management Toolbox

    PubMed Central

    Spee, Ton; Gillen, Matt; Lentz, Thomas J.; Garrod, Andrew; Evans, Paul; Swuste, Paul

    2011-01-01

    Objectives This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social Security Association says, "whereas progress has been made in safety and health, the construction industry is still a high risk sector." Methods Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ about 80% of the world's construction workers. In recent years a strategy for qualitative occupational risk management, known as Control Banding (CB) has gained international attention as a simplified approach for reducing work-related risks. CB groups hazards into stratified risk 'bands', identifying commensurate controls to reduce the level of risk and promote worker health and safety. We review these qualitative solutions-based approaches and identify strengths and weaknesses toward designing a simplified CB 'toolbox' approach for use by SMEs in construction trades. Results This toolbox design proposal includes international input on multidisciplinary approaches for performing a qualitative risk assessment determining a risk 'band' for a given project. Risk bands are used to identify the appropriate level of training to oversee construction work, leading to commensurate and appropriate control methods to perform the work safely. Conclusion The Construction Toolbox presents a review-generated format to harness multiple solutions-based national programs and publications for controlling construction-related risks with simplified approaches across the occupational safety, health and hygiene professions. PMID:22953194

  1. A risk-based approach to cleanup: Problems and pitfalls

    SciTech Connect

    Anspaugh, L.

    1995-10-01

    This paper details information dealing with the meetings of the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU). Topics discussed include: Radtest program to summarize all data on radiation doses resulting from nuclear weapons testing; current status of US cleanup strategies; development of new milestones for the project due to reduced budgets; health hazards; and risk reduction.

  2. 12 CFR 324.152 - Simple risk weight approach (SRWA).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... exposures to an investment fund) as determined in this section and the risk-weighted asset amounts for each of the FDIC-supervised institution's individual equity exposures to an investment fund as determined... exposure to an investment fund) by multiplying the adjusted carrying value of the equity exposure or...

  3. College Alcohol Risk Assessment Guide. Environmental Approaches to Prevention.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ryan, Barbara E.; And Others

    This guide suggests methods and exercises for gathering and organizing information about alcohol use and associated adverse consequences on university campuses and in surrounding communities. The guide is intended to assist individuals and groups in identifying and modifying risks that contribute to alcohol-related problems. Alcohol problem…

  4. AN APPROACH FOR CHARACTERIZING TROPOSPHERIC OZONE RISK TO FOREST

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk tropospheric ozone poses to forests in the United States is dependent on the variation in ozone exposure across the distribution of the forests in question and the various environmental and climate factors predominant in the region. All these factors have a spatial natur...

  5. Teen Risk-Taking: Promising Prevention Programs and Approaches.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eisen, Marvin; Pallitto, Christina; Bradner, Carolyn; Bolshun, Natalya

    This guidebook explores some of the practical issues associated with finding, choosing, and starting potentially effective prevention programs for at-risk preteens and teens. The guidebook is based on a study of 51 intervention programs that identified elements and delivery mechanisms that were associated with their effectiveness. A closer look at…

  6. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA): A Practical and Cost Effective Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Lydia L.; Ingegneri, Antonino J.; Djam, Melody

    2006-01-01

    The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) is the first mission of the Robotic Lunar Exploration Program (RLEP), a space exploration venture to the Moon, Mars and beyond. The LRO mission includes spacecraft developed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and seven instruments built by GSFC, Russia, and contractors across the nation. LRO is defined as a measurement mission, not a science mission. It emphasizes the overall objectives of obtaining data to facilitate returning mankind safely to the Moon in preparation for an eventual manned mission to Mars. As the first mission in response to the President's commitment of the journey of exploring the solar system and beyond: returning to the Moon in the next decade, then venturing further into the solar system, ultimately sending humans to Mars and beyond, LRO has high-visibility to the public but limited resources and a tight schedule. This paper demonstrates how NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Mission project office incorporated reliability analyses in assessing risks and performing design tradeoffs to ensure mission success. Risk assessment is performed using NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) 8705.5 - Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects to formulate probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). As required, a limited scope PRA is being performed for the LRO project. The PRA is used to optimize the mission design within mandated budget, manpower, and schedule constraints. The technique that LRO project office uses to perform PRA relies on the application of a component failure database to quantify the potential mission success risks. To ensure mission success in an efficient manner, low cost and tight schedule, the traditional reliability analyses, such as reliability predictions, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), are used to perform PRA for the large system of LRO with more than 14,000 piece parts and over 120 purchased or contractor

  7. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    PubMed

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2016-11-28

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks.

  8. Risk-Hedged Approach for Re-Routing Air Traffic Under Weather Uncertainty

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sadovsky, Alexander V.; Bilimoria, Karl D.

    2016-01-01

    This presentation corresponds to: our paper explores a new risk-hedged approach for re-routing air traffic around forecast convective weather. In this work, flying through a more likely weather instantiation is considered to pose a higher level of risk. Current operational practice strategically plans re-routes to avoid only the most likely (highest risk) weather instantiation, and then tactically makes any necessary adjustments as the weather evolves. The risk-hedged approach strategically plans re-routes by minimizing the risk-adjusted path length, incorporating multiple possible weather instantiations with associated likelihoods (risks). The resulting model is transparent and is readily analyzed for realism and treated with well-understood shortest-path algorithms. Risk-hedged re-routes are computed for some example weather instantiations. The main result is that in some scenarios, relative to an operational-practice proxy solution, the risk-hedged solution provides the benefits of lower risk as well as shorter path length. In other scenarios, the benefits of the risk-hedged solution are ambiguous, because the solution is characterized by a tradeoff between risk and path length. The risk-hedged solution can be executed in those scenarios where it provides a clear benefit over current operational practice.

  9. The added value of a water footprint approach: Micro- and macroeconomic analysis of cotton production, processing and export in water bound Uzbekistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rudenko, I.; Bekchanov, M.; Djanibekov, U.; Lamers, J. P. A.

    2013-11-01

    Since independence from the former Soviet Union in 1991, Uzbekistan is challenged to consolidate its efforts and identify and introduce suitable agricultural policies to ease the threat of advancing land, water and ecosystem deterioration. On the one hand, irrigated cotton production provides income, food and energy sources for a large part of the rural households, which accounts for about 70% of the total population. On the other hand, this sector is considered a major driver of the on-going environmental degradation. Due to this dual nature, an integrated approach is needed that allows the analyses of the cotton sector at different stages and, consequently, deriving comprehensive options for action. The findings of the economic based value chain analysis and ecologically-oriented water footprint analysis on regional level were complemented with the findings of an input-output model on national level. This combination gave an added value for better-informed decision-making to reach land, water and ecosystem sustainability, compared to the individual results of each approach. The synergy of approaches pointed at various options for actions, such as to (i) promote the shift of water use from the high water consuming agricultural sector to a less water consuming cotton processing sector, (ii) increase overall water use efficiency by expanding the highly water productive industrial sectors and concurrently decreasing sectors with inefficient water use, and (iii) reduce agricultural water use by improving irrigation and conveyance efficiencies. The findings showed that increasing water use efficiency, manufacturing products with higher value added and raising water users' awareness of the real value of water are essential for providing water security in Uzbekistan.

  10. NASA's Approach to Critical Risks for Extended Human Space Flight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shelhamer, Mark

    2014-01-01

    Planetary Robotic and Human Spaceflight Exploration Humans are exposed to a great variety of hazards in the space environment. These include the effects of weightlessness, radiation, isolation and confinement, altered day-night cycles, and others. These inherent hazards have both physiological and behavioral consequences. The adaptive capabilities of humans in these situations is remarkable, and often exceed our expectations. However, the demanding environment and challenging operational pace can push some of these adaptive processes to their limits. The NASA Human Research Program (HRP) is tasked with mitigating the most serious of these effects on human health, safety, and performance, in long-duration space flight. This can involve the development and deployment of physiological countermeasures, better understanding of the physiological alterations and avoidance of exacerbating situations, inputs to the design of future spacecraft to minimize risks, and in some cases the awareness that some level of risk might have to be accepted based on the resulting consequences and their likelihood. HRP has identified a few areas that are of special concern due to their severity, lack of understanding of underlying causes, or potential for negative impact on health or performance. Some of these areas are visual impairment possibly due to increased intracranial pressure, behavioral and performance problems due to sleep deficits and isolation, and acute and chronic effects of radiation. These problems can, if not addressed, be expected to increase on longer and more distant missions. The evidence from spaceflight, laboratory, and analog studies that supports the selection of the most critical risks will be discussed. Current and planned research programs that address these risks, and their anticipated outcomes, will also be described.

  11. Sperm competition games: a general approach to risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Ball, M A; Parker, G A

    1998-09-21

    We investigate game theory models of ejaculate expenditure by males in a species where there is a risk probability, q, that females will mate twice before laying a given set of eggs. With frequency 1-q females mate just once; then males optimally ejaculate an arbitrary minimum amount of sperm. The paper extends the analysis of Parker et al. (1997) in which males have limited information about the three risk states of the female: 0 (virgins which will mate now but not again), 1 (virgins which will mate now and then once more), and 2 (once-mated females who will mate now but not again). We derive a general structure for finding ESSs under imperfect information about states, and examine two special cases in which males know the overall risk probability q, but have imperfect knowledge of the states (0, 1, 2). In Case 1, males cannot distinguish between states 0 and 1 but have limited information about state 2. As their information increases, so does the difference in sperm allocation, with more going to females assessed as mated (state 2) than to females assessed as virgins (0, 1). This difference decreases with q in a species, but the average ejaculate expenditure increases with q. Even for small amounts of information, the behaviour as q-->0 is different from that predicted for zero information. In Case 2, males have perfect information about state 2, but limited information about states 0, 1. This has a major effect if q is small: males effectively behave as if they had perfect information by giving equal amounts of sperm to females assessed as 1 as those assessed to be 2, while giving a minimum amount to females assessed as 0. Ejaculate expenditures generally increase with the overall species-level risk q. A result common to both cases is that even a small amount of information allows more strategic choice than the zero information case and hence qualitatively different behaviour.

  12. A risk-based approach to land-use planning.

    PubMed

    Hauptmanns, Ulrich

    2005-10-17

    The Seveso II-Directive requires that the objectives of preventing major accidents and limiting their consequences be taken into account by the Member States in their land-use policies and/or other relevant policies. This is to be achieved by ensuring adequate distances between industrial establishments and residential areas, areas of public use and areas of particular natural sensitivity or interest. A risk-based framework implemented in a computer program is presented which enables one to calculate adequate distances. The criterion used is a limit on the individual risk of death. The method is a simplified risk analysis which represents the plant, whose characteristics are normally unknown at the stage of land-use planning, by generic frequencies of release for process units and storage tanks. Their number depends on the size of the site to be allotted. The procedure is capable of addressing the siting of new establishments and, with due regard to the simplifications used, modifications to and new developments in the vicinity of existing establishments. Given the numerous assumptions, which have to be made, the framework represents a convention.

  13. Evaluating changes in driver behaviour: a risk profiling approach.

    PubMed

    Ellison, Adrian B; Bliemer, Michiel C J; Greaves, Stephen P

    2015-02-01

    New road safety strategies continue to be devised by researchers and policy makers with pay-as-you-drive (PAYD) schemes gaining increasing attention. However, empirically measuring the effectiveness of these strategies is challenging due to the influence of the road environment and other factors external to the driver. The analysis presented here applies Temporal and Spatial Identifiers to control for the road environment and Driver Behaviour Profiles to provide a common measure of driving behaviour based on the risk of a casualty crash for assessing the effectiveness of a PAYD scheme on reducing driving risks. The results show that in many cases personalised feedback alone is sufficient to induce significant changes, but the largest reductions in risk are observed when drivers are also awarded a financial incentive to change behaviour. Importantly, the more frequent the exposure to the speeding information, the greater the magnitude of the change. However, the changes are disproportionately associated with those that were already safer drivers in the baseline period suggesting that some drivers may be predisposed to changing their behaviour. These results suggest that it would be beneficial to provide real-time or daily feedback on speeding behaviour in conjunction with a financial reward scheme, potentially as a component of insurance premiums.

  14. Risk based analysis: A rational approach to site cleanup

    SciTech Connect

    Arulanatham, R.; So, E.

    1994-12-31

    Soil and groundwater pollution in urban areas often can pose a threat to either human health or water quality or both. This soil and groundwater cleanup can be a very lengthy process and requires significant economic resources. The cleanup levels or requirements required by one agency sometimes do not match that required by the other agency, especially those for soil pollution. The involvement of several agencies at different times during the reclamation process has often diminished the cost-effectiveness of the reclamation efforts. In an attempt to bring some solutions to minimize this kind of problem (which has been experienced by both the authors) the staff of the Alameda County Department of Environmental Health and the Regional Water Quality Control Board, San Francisco Bay Region, has jointly developed some workable guidelines to self-assist the responsible parties in deriving target cleanup goals that are both human health (or other ecological receptor) and water quality protective. The following is a 6-step summary of the methodology to assist the responsible parties in properly managing their pollution problem. These guidelines include: (1) site characterization; (2) initial risk-based screening of contaminants; (3) derivation of health and/or ecological risk-based cleanup goals; (4) derivation of groundwater quality-based cleanup goals; (5) site cleanup goals and site remediation; and (6) risk management decisions.

  15. Approach on environmental risk assessment of nanosilver released from textiles

    SciTech Connect

    Voelker, Doris; Schlich, Karsten; Hohndorf, Lars; Koch, Wolfgang; Kuehnen, Ute; Polleichtner, Christian; Kussatz, Carola; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

    2015-07-15

    Based on the increased utilization of nanosilver (silver nanomaterials=AgNM) as antibacterial agent, there is the strong need to assess the potential environmental implication associated with its new application areas. In this study an exemplary environmental risk assessment (ERA) of AgNM applied in textiles was performed. Environmental exposure scenarios (via municipal sewage treatment plant (STP)) with wastewater supply from domestic homes) were developed for three different types of textiles equipped with AgNM. Based on these scenarios predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) were deduced for STPs and for the environmental compartments surface water, sediment as well as soil. These PECs were related to PNECs (predicted no effect concentrations). PNECs were deduced from results of ecotoxicity tests of a selected AgNM (NM-300K). Data on ecotoxicology were derived from various tests with activated sludge, cyanobacteria, algae, daphnids, fish, duckweed, macrophytes, chironomids, earthworms, terrestrial plants as well as soil microorganisms. Emission data for the AgNM NM-300K from textiles were derived from washing experiments. The performed ERA was based on the specifications defined in the ECHA Guidances on information requirements and chemical safety assessment. Based on the chosen scenarios and preconditions, no environmental risk of the AgNM NM-300K released from textiles was detected. Under conservative assumptions a risk quotient for surface water close to 1 indicated that the aquatic compartment may be affected by an increased emission of AgNM to the environment due to the high sensitivity of aquatic organisms to silver. Based on the successful retention of AgNM in the sewage sludge and the still ongoing continual application of sewage sludge on farmland it is recommended to introduce a threshold for total silver content in sewage sludge into the respective regulations. Regarding potential risk mitigation measures, it is emphasized to preferably directly

  16. An Approach to Risk-Based Design Incorporating Damage Tolerance Analyses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Glaessgen, Edward H.; Sleight, David W.

    2002-01-01

    Incorporating risk-based design as an integral part of spacecraft development is becoming more and more common. Assessment of uncertainties associated with design parameters and environmental aspects such as loading provides increased knowledge of the design and its performance. Results of such studies can contribute to mitigating risk through a system-level assessment. Understanding the risk of an event occurring, the probability of its occurrence, and the consequences of its occurrence can lead to robust, reliable designs. This paper describes an approach to risk-based structural design incorporating damage-tolerance analysis. The application of this approach to a candidate Earth-entry vehicle is described. The emphasis of the paper is on describing an approach for establishing damage-tolerant structural response inputs to a system-level probabilistic risk assessment.

  17. 77 FR 52977 - Regulatory Capital Rules: Advanced Approaches Risk-Based Capital Rule; Market Risk Capital Rule

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-08-30

    ...The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Board), and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) (collectively, the agencies) are seeking comment on three notices of proposed rulemaking (NPRs) that would revise and replace the agencies' current capital rules. In this NPR (Advanced Approaches and Market Risk NPR) the......

  18. NASA's human system risk management approach and its applicability to commercial spaceflight.

    PubMed

    Law, Jennifer; Mathers, Charles H; Fondy, Susan R E; Vanderploeg, James M; Kerstman, Eric L

    2013-01-01

    As planning continues for commercial spaceflight, attention is turned to NASA to assess whether its human system risk management approach can be applied to mitigate the risks associated with commercial suborbital and orbital flights. NASA uses a variety of methods to assess the risks to the human system based on their likelihood and consequences. In this article, we review these methods and categorize the risks in the system as "definite," "possible," or "least" concern for commercial spaceflight. As with career astronauts, these risks will be primarily mitigated by screening and environmental control. Despite its focus on long-duration exploration missions, NASA's human system risk management approach can serve as a preliminary knowledge base to help medical planners prepare for commercial spaceflights.

  19. A classification tree approach to the development of actuarial violence risk assessment tools.

    PubMed

    Steadman, H J; Silver, E; Monahan, J; Appelbaum, P S; Robbins, P C; Mulvey, E P; Grisso, T; Roth, L H; Banks, S

    2000-02-01

    Since the 1970s, a wide body of research has suggested that the accuracy of clinical risk assessments of violence might be increased if clinicians used actuarial tools. Despite considerable progress in recent years in the development of such tools for violence risk assessment, they remain primarily research instruments, largely ignored in daily clinical practice. We argue that because most existing actuarial tools are based on a main effects regression approach, they do not adequately reflect the contingent nature of the clinical assessment processes. To enhance the use of actuarial violence risk assessment tools, we propose a classification tree rather than a main effects regression approach. In addition, we suggest that by employing two decision thresholds for identifying high- and low-risk cases--instead of the standard single threshold--the use of actuarial tools to make dichotomous risk classification decisions may be further enhanced. These claims are supported with empirical data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study.

  20. From Physical Process to Economic Cost - Integrated Approaches of Landslide Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klose, M.; Damm, B.

    2014-12-01

    The nature of landslides is complex in many respects, with landslide hazard and impact being dependent on a variety of factors. This obviously requires an integrated assessment for fundamental understanding of landslide risk. Integrated risk assessment, according to the approach presented in this contribution, implies combining prediction of future landslide occurrence with analysis of landslide impact in the past. A critical step for assessing landslide risk in integrated perspective is to analyze what types of landslide damage affected people and property in which way and how people contributed and responded to these damage types. In integrated risk assessment, the focus is on systematic identification and monetization of landslide damage, and analytical tools that allow deriving economic costs from physical landslide processes are at the heart of this approach. The broad spectrum of landslide types and process mechanisms as well as nonlinearity between landslide magnitude, damage intensity, and direct costs are some main factors explaining recent challenges in risk assessment. The two prevailing approaches for assessing the impact of landslides in economic terms are cost survey (ex-post) and risk analysis (ex-ante). Both approaches are able to complement each other, but yet a combination of them has not been realized so far. It is common practice today to derive landslide risk without considering landslide process-based cause-effect relationships, since integrated concepts or new modeling tools expanding conventional methods are still widely missing. The approach introduced in this contribution is based on a systematic framework that combines cost survey and GIS-based tools for hazard or cost modeling with methods to assess interactions between land use practices and landslides in historical perspective. Fundamental understanding of landslide risk also requires knowledge about the economic and fiscal relevance of landslide losses, wherefore analysis of their

  1. Sensing risk, fearing uncertainty: systems science approach to change

    PubMed Central

    Janecka, Ivo P.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Medicine devotes its primary focus to understanding change, from cells to network relationships; observations of non-linearity are inescapable. Recent events provide extraordinary examples of major non-linear surprises within the societal system: human genome-from anticipated 100,000+ genes to only 20,000+; junk DNA-initially ignored but now proven to control genetic processes; economic reversals-bursting of bubbles in technology, housing, finance; foreign wars; relentless rise in obesity, neurodegenerative diseases. There are two attributes of systems science that are especially relevant to this research: One—it offers a method for creating a structural context with a guiding path to pragmatic knowledge; and, two—it gives pre-eminence to sensory input capable to register, evaluate, and react to change. Materials/Methods: Public domain records of change, during the last 50 years, have been studied in the context of systems science, the dynamic systems model, and various cycles. Results/Conclusions: Change is dynamic, ever-present, never isolated, and of variable impact; it reflects innumerable relationships among contextual systems; change can be perceived as risk or uncertainty depending upon how the assessment is made; risk is quantifiable by sensory input and generates a degree of rational optimism; uncertainty is not quantifiable and evokes fear; trust is key to sharing risk; the measurable financial credit can be a proxy for societal trust; expanding credit dilutes trust; when a credit bubble bursts, so will trust; absence of trust paralyzes systems' relationships leading to disorganized complexity which prevents value creation and heightens the probability of random events; disappearance of value, accompanied by chaos, threatens all systems. From personal health to economic sustainability and collective rationality, most examined components of the societal system were found not to be optimized and trust was not in evidence. PMID:24744723

  2. Approach on environmental risk assessment of nanosilver released from textiles.

    PubMed

    Voelker, Doris; Schlich, Karsten; Hohndorf, Lars; Koch, Wolfgang; Kuehnen, Ute; Polleichtner, Christian; Kussatz, Carola; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

    2015-07-01

    Based on the increased utilization of nanosilver (silver nanomaterials=AgNM) as antibacterial agent, there is the strong need to assess the potential environmental implication associated with its new application areas. In this study an exemplary environmental risk assessment (ERA) of AgNM applied in textiles was performed. Environmental exposure scenarios (via municipal sewage treatment plant (STP)) with wastewater supply from domestic homes) were developed for three different types of textiles equipped with AgNM. Based on these scenarios predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) were deduced for STPs and for the environmental compartments surface water, sediment as well as soil. These PECs were related to PNECs (predicted no effect concentrations). PNECs were deduced from results of ecotoxicity tests of a selected AgNM (NM-300K). Data on ecotoxicology were derived from various tests with activated sludge, cyanobacteria, algae, daphnids, fish, duckweed, macrophytes, chironomids, earthworms, terrestrial plants as well as soil microorganisms. Emission data for the AgNM NM-300K from textiles were derived from washing experiments. The performed ERA was based on the specifications defined in the ECHA Guidances on information requirements and chemical safety assessment. Based on the chosen scenarios and preconditions, no environmental risk of the AgNM NM-300K released from textiles was detected. Under conservative assumptions a risk quotient for surface water close to 1 indicated that the aquatic compartment may be affected by an increased emission of AgNM to the environment due to the high sensitivity of aquatic organisms to silver. Based on the successful retention of AgNM in the sewage sludge and the still ongoing continual application of sewage sludge on farmland it is recommended to introduce a threshold for total silver content in sewage sludge into the respective regulations. Regarding potential risk mitigation measures, it is emphasized to preferably directly

  3. A multidisciplinary approach to therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient

    PubMed Central

    Grant, Cynthia L; Lusk, Jaimie L

    2015-01-01

    As health care trends toward a system of care approach, providers from various disciplines strive to collaborate to provide optimal care for their patients. While a multidisciplinary approach to suicide risk assessment and management has been identified as important for reducing suicidality, standardized clinical guidelines for such an approach do not yet exist. In this article, the authors propose the adoption of the therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient (TRMSP) to improve suicide risk assessment and management within multidisciplinary systems of care. The TRMSP, which has been fully articulated in previous articles, involves augmenting clinical risk assessment with structured instruments, stratifying risk in terms of both severity and temporality, and developing and documenting a safety plan. Augmenting clinical risk assessments with reliable and valid structured instruments serves several functions, including ensuring important aspects of suicide are addressed, establishing a baseline for suicidal thoughts and behaviors, facilitating interprofessional communication, and mitigating risk. Similarly, a two-dimensional risk stratification qualifying suicide risk in terms of both severity and temporality can enhance communication across providers and settings and improve understanding of acute crises in the context of chronic risk. Finally, safety planning interventions allow providers and patients to collaboratively create a personally meaningful plan for managing a suicidal crisis that can be continually modified across time with multiple providers in different care settings. In a busy care environment, the TRMSP can provide concrete guidance on conducting clinically and medicolegally sound suicide risk assessment and management. This collaborative and comprehensive process would potentially improve care of patients with suicidality, optimize clinical resources, decrease unnecessary and costly admissions, and mitigate medicolegal risk. The TRMSP may

  4. APPROACHES FOR INCORPORATING NON-CHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Over the past twenty years, the risk assessment paradigm has gradually shifted from an individual chemical approach to a community-based model. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is consideration of the totality of stressors affecting a defined population including both ...

  5. Risk-based targeting: A new approach in environmental protection

    SciTech Connect

    Fox, C.A.

    1995-12-31

    Risk-based targeting has recently emerged as an effective tool to help prioritize efforts to identify and manage geographic areas, chemicals, facilities, and agricultural activities that cause the most environmental degradation. This paper focuses on how the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has recently used risk-based targeting to identify and screen Federal, industrial, commercial and municipal facilities which contribute to probable human health (fish consumption advisories and contaminated fish tissue) and aquatic life (contaminated sediments) impacts. Preliminary results identified several hundred potential contributors of problem chemicals to probable impacts within the same river reach in 1991--93. Analysis by industry sector showed that the majority of the facilities identified were publicly owned treatment works (POTWs), in addition to industry organic and inorganic chemical manufacturers, petroleum refineries, and electric services, coatings, engravings, and allied services, among others. Both compliant and non-compliant potentially contributing facilities were identified to some extent in all EPA regions. Additional results identifying possible linkages of other pollutant sources to probable impacts, as well as estimation of potential exposure of these contaminants to minority and/or poverty populations are also presented. Out of these analyses, a number of short and long-term strategies are being developed that EPA may use to reduce loadings of problem contaminants to impacted waterbodies.

  6. Therapeutic approaches targeting inflammation for diabetes and associated cardiovascular risk.

    PubMed

    Goldfine, Allison B; Shoelson, Steven E

    2017-01-03

    Obesity-related sub-acute chronic inflammation has been associated with incident type 2 diabetes and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Inflammation is increasingly considered to be a pathologic mediator of these commonly co-occurring diseases. A growing number of preclinical and clinical studies support the inflammatory hypothesis, but clinical trials to confirm the therapeutic potential to target inflammation to treat or prevent cardiometabolic conditions are still ongoing. There are multiple inflammatory signaling pathways. Regulation is complex, with substantial crosstalk across these multiple pathways. The activity of select pathways may be differentially regulated in different tissues. Pharmacologic approaches to diabetes management may have direct or indirect antiinflammatory effects, the latter potentially attributable to an improved metabolic state. Conversely, some antiinflammatory approaches may affect glucose metabolism and cardiovascular health. To date, clinical trials suggest that targeting one portion of the inflammatory cascade may differentially affect dysglycemia and atherothrombosis. Understanding the underlying biological processes may contribute to the development of safe and effective therapies, although a single approach may not be sufficient for optimal management of both metabolic and athrothrombotic disease states.

  7. [Toxicologic risk assessment and prevention: rational and irrational approaches].

    PubMed

    Forth, W

    1996-12-01

    Worldwide, the management and evaluation of risks caused by chemical compounds are handled by the aid of threshold concentrations below of which one can be sure that no biological effect whatsoever can be observed. At the working place, we use the maximally tolerated concentration of the chemicals (MAK) and, in addition, the biologically tolerated concentrations (BTC) of the compounds either in blood or in other body fluids to which a male and/or female worker is exposed. These threshold concentrations should cover any toxic effect including on the one hand mere deviations of clinical chemical values without a disturbed function, i.e. symptoms of a disease as well as, on the other hand, carcinogenic, mutagenic and even allergic effects. Threshold concentrations, however, exist only for acute and chronic toxic effects and not for carcinogenic and/or mutagenic effects. In these cases, again, worldwide, the concept of minimizing the risks by the exposure is preferred since no toxicologist can be found to assure a "safe" concentration of a chemical compound that exert carcinogenic and/or mutagenic effects. With respect to these effects a proven carcinogenic and/or mutagenic effect in human beings must be discerned from a suspected effect on the basis of animal experiments or in vitro models. However, there exist also paradigms of a clearcut connection between a chemical substance or its metabolites causing carcinogenic and/or mutagenic effects in model experiments from which a clearcut suspect of similar reactions after the exposure of human beings can be drawn. In general, carcinogenic risks are overestimated in our societies. Following the data of experienced British epidemiologist most tumor diseases can be traced back to food consumption, beverages and tobacco and even sexual behavior must be ranked as cause for tumors before the rare exposure to dangerous chemicals at the working place. It is worthwhile to mention that natural toxins produced by bacteria and even

  8. HDL in sepsis - risk factor and therapeutic approach.

    PubMed

    Morin, Emily E; Guo, Ling; Schwendeman, Anna; Li, Xiang-An

    2015-01-01

    High-density lipoprotein (HDL) is a key component of circulating blood and plays essential roles in regulation of vascular endothelial function and immunity. Clinical data demonstrate that HDL levels drop by 40-70% in septic patients, which is associated with a poor prognosis. Experimental studies using Apolipoprotein A-I (ApoAI) null mice showed that HDL deficient mice are susceptible to septic death, and overexpressing ApoAI in mice to increase HDL levels protects against septic death. These clinical and animal studies support our hypothesis that a decrease in HDL level is a risk factor for sepsis, and raising circulating HDL levels may provide an efficient therapy for sepsis. In this review, we discuss the roles of HDL in sepsis and summarize the efforts of using synthetic HDL as a potential therapy for sepsis.

  9. Health Risk Assessment Approach for 2,3,7,8 ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) is one of the most toxic and environmentally stable pollutants. In addition to various toxic effects, TCDD has been found to cause teratogenic, fetocidal, reproductive and carcinogenic effects in animals. In humans it adversely affects various organ systems and is probably carcinogenic as well. The report documents the methodologies utilized by the United States Environmental Protection Agency in its development of health risk assessment from exposure to TCDD. 2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) is one of the most toxic and environmentally stable pollutants. In addition to various toxic effects, TCDD has been found to cause teratogenic, fetocidal, reproductive and carcinogenic effects in animals. In humans it adversely affects various organ systems and is probably carcinogenic as well.

  10. HDL in sepsis – risk factor and therapeutic approach

    PubMed Central

    Morin, Emily E.; Guo, Ling; Schwendeman, Anna; Li, Xiang-An

    2015-01-01

    High-density lipoprotein (HDL) is a key component of circulating blood and plays essential roles in regulation of vascular endothelial function and immunity. Clinical data demonstrate that HDL levels drop by 40–70% in septic patients, which is associated with a poor prognosis. Experimental studies using Apolipoprotein A-I (ApoAI) null mice showed that HDL deficient mice are susceptible to septic death, and overexpressing ApoAI in mice to increase HDL levels protects against septic death. These clinical and animal studies support our hypothesis that a decrease in HDL level is a risk factor for sepsis, and raising circulating HDL levels may provide an efficient therapy for sepsis. In this review, we discuss the roles of HDL in sepsis and summarize the efforts of using synthetic HDL as a potential therapy for sepsis. PMID:26557091

  11. Risk factors for adverse drug reactions--epidemiological approaches.

    PubMed

    Hoigné, R; Lawson, D H; Weber, E

    1990-01-01

    Age by itself is not an important risk factor for ADRs. Age-related changes are the consequence of a number of individual factors, for example morbidity associated with polypharmacy, decline in renal or liver function in the elderly, hypoalbuminaemia, reduced body weight, etc. The relationship between gastrointestinal bleeding and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs can be assessed globally in large cohort studies with access to computerized data, but complete accuracy requires access to the original patient records. The increase in the risk of GI bleeding in users of NSAIDs and aspirin was 50% above that in non-users. About a quarter of ADRs in hospitalized patients seem not to arise from purely pharmacological mechanisms. They are mainly due to allergic, anaphylactoid, or idiosyncratic reactions and to intolerance. In such non-pharmacological reactions, the time of exposure, reaction time, and even dosage may be important factors in identification of the causal drug. The use of benzodiazepines can be optimized by taking into account potency, time of action and the different syndromes encountered after withdrawal. Following long-term use problems of relapse and rebound are being increasingly recognized, in addition to organic withdrawal symptoms. In psychiatric patients extrapyramidal disorders due to neuroleptics are common. The rates of these ADRs differ markedly between various drugs, even after dosages and co-medications are taken into account. Epidemiological screening for potentially carcinogenic drugs can only be done in large cohorts of patients with pre-recorded full information sets as may be found in an HMO (Health Maintenance Organization). The findings of several such studies have been published in specialist cancer journals.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  12. The risk implications of approaches to setting soil remediation goals at hazardous waste contaminated sites

    SciTech Connect

    Labieniec, Paula Ann

    1994-08-01

    An integrated exposure and carcinogenic risk assessment model for organic contamination in soil, SoilRisk, was developed and used for evaluating the risk implications of both site-specific and uniform-concentration approaches to setting soil remediation goals at hazardous-waste-contaminated sites. SoilRisk was applied to evaluate the uncertainty in the risk estimate due to uncertainty in site conditions at a representative site. It was also used to evaluate the variability in risk across a region of sites that can occur due to differences in site characteristics that affect contaminant transport and fate when a uniform concentration approach is used. In evaluating regional variability, Ross County, Ohio and the State of Ohio were used as examples. All analyses performed considered four contaminants (benzene, trichloroethylene (TCE), chlordane, and benzo[a]pyrene (BAP)) and four exposure scenarios (commercial, recreational and on- and offsite residential). Regardless of whether uncertainty in risk at a single site or variability in risk across sites was evaluated, the exposure scenario specified and the properties of the target contaminant had more influence than variance in site parameters on the resulting variance and magnitude of the risk estimate. In general, variance in risk was found to be greater for the relatively less degradable and more mobile of the chemicals studied (TCE and chlordane) than for benzene which is highly degradable and BAP which is very immobile in the subsurface.

  13. A Systematic Approach for Responsibly and Effectively Managing the Disruptive Behavior of "At-Risk" Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jones, Vern; Dunn, Cory

    This paper analyzes a systems approach for dealing with the disruptive behavior of at-risk students based on the principle that there is a shared responsibility among all school staff and that the methods employed should respond to the emotional and skill needs of the students. The approach has the following key components: (1) support by school…

  14. A spatially explicit risk approach to support marine spatial planning in the German EEZ.

    PubMed

    Gimpel, Antje; Stelzenmüller, Vanessa; Cormier, Roland; Floeter, Jens; Temming, Axel

    2013-05-01

    An ecosystem approach to marine spatial planning (MSP) promotes sustainable development by organizing human activities in a geo-spatial and temporal context. (1) This study develops and tests a spatially explicit risk assessment to support MSP. Using the German exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the North Sea as a case study area, current and future spatial management scenarios are assessed. (2) Different tools are linked in order to carry out a comprehensive spatial risk assessment of current and future spatial management scenarios for ecologic and economic ecosystem components, i.e. Pleuronectes platessa nursery grounds. With the identification of key inputs and outputs the suitability of each tool is tested. (3) Here, the procedure as well as the main findings of the spatially explicit risk approach are summarised to demonstrate the applicability of the framework and the need for an ecosystem approach to risk management techniques using geo-spatial tools.

  15. A quantile-based Time at Risk: A new approach for assessing risk in financial markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bolgorian, Meysam; Raei, Reza

    2013-11-01

    In this paper, we provide a new measure for evaluation of risk in financial markets. This measure is based on the return interval of critical events in financial markets or other investment situations. Our main goal was to devise a model like Value at Risk (VaR). As VaR, for a given financial asset, probability level and time horizon, gives a critical value such that the likelihood of loss on the asset over the time horizon exceeds this value is equal to the given probability level, our concept of Time at Risk (TaR), using a probability distribution function of return intervals, provides a critical time such that the probability that the return interval of a critical event exceeds this time equals the given probability level. As an empirical application, we applied our model to data from the Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX) as a financial asset (market portfolio) and reported the results.

  16. Unravelling River System Impairments in Stream Networks with an Integrated Risk Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Looy, Kris; Piffady, Jérémy; Tormos, Thierry; Villeneuve, Bertrand; Valette, Laurent; Chandesris, André; Souchon, Yves

    2015-06-01

    Rivers are complex systems for which it is hard to make reliable assessments of causes and responses to impairments. We present a holistic risk-based framework for river ecosystem assessment integrating all potential intervening processes and functions. Risk approaches allow us to deal with uncertainty both in the construction of indicators for magnitude of stressors and in the inference of environmental processes and their impairment. Yet, here we go further than simply replacing uncertainty by a risk factor. We introduce a more accurate and rigorous notion of risk with a transcription of uncertainty in causal relationships in probability distributions for the magnitude of impairment and the weight of different descriptors, with an associated confidence in the diagnostic. We discuss how Bayesian belief networks and Bayesian hierarchical inference allow us to deal with this risk concept to predict impairments and potential recovery of river ecosystems. We developed a comprehensive approach for river ecosystem assessment, which offers an appealing tool to facilitate diagnosis of the likely causes of impairment and predict future conditions. The ability of the risk approaches to integrate multi-scale quantitative and qualitative descriptors in the identification of multiple stressor sources and pathways in the stream network, and their impairment of specific processes and structures is illustrated for the national-level risk analysis for hydromorphology and pesticide pollution. Not only does the risk-based framework provide a more complete picture of environmental impairments, but it also offers a comprehensive, user-friendly tool to instruct the decision process.

  17. A Risk Management Approach to the "Insider Threat"

    SciTech Connect

    Bishop, Matt; Engle, Sophie J.; Frincke, Deborah A.; Gates, Carrie; Greitzer, Frank L.; Peisert, Sean; Whalen, Sean

    2010-09-01

    Abstract Recent surveys indicate that the financial impact and operating losses due to insider intrusions are increasing. But these studies often disagree on what constitutes an insider; indeed, many define it only implicitly. In theory, appropriate selection of, and enforcement of, properly specified security policies should prevent legitimate users from abusing their access to computer systems, information, and other resources. However, even if policies could be expressed precisely, the natural mapping between the natural language expression of a security policy, and the expression of that policy in a form that can be implemented on a computer system or network, creates gaps in enforcement. This paper defines insider precisely, in terms of these gaps, and explores an access-based model for analyzing threats that include those usually termed insider threats. This model enables an organization to order its resources based on the business value for that resource and of the information it contains. By identifying those users with access to high-value resources, we obtain an ordered list of users who can cause the greatest amount of damage. Concurrently with this, we examine psychological indicators in order to determine which users are at the greatest risk of acting inappropriately.We conclude by examining how to merge this model with one of forensic logging and auditing.

  18. Approach to proliferation risk assessment based on multiple objective analysis framework

    SciTech Connect

    Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I.

    2013-07-01

    The approach to the assessment of proliferation risk using the methods of multi-criteria decision making and multi-objective optimization is presented. The approach allows the taking into account of the specifics features of the national nuclear infrastructure, and possible proliferation strategies (motivations, intentions, and capabilities). 3 examples of applying the approach are shown. First, the approach has been used to evaluate the attractiveness of HEU (high enriched uranium)production scenarios at a clandestine enrichment facility using centrifuge enrichment technology. Secondly, the approach has been applied to assess the attractiveness of scenarios for undeclared production of plutonium or HEU by theft of materials circulating in nuclear fuel cycle facilities and thermal reactors. Thirdly, the approach has been used to perform a comparative analysis of the structures of developing nuclear power systems based on different types of nuclear fuel cycles, the analysis being based on indicators of proliferation risk.

  19. A novel approach for evaluating the risk of health care failure modes.

    PubMed

    Chang, Dong Shang; Chung, Jenq Hann; Sun, Kuo Lung; Yang, Fu Chiang

    2012-12-01

    Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) can be employed to reduce medical errors by identifying the risk ranking of the health care failure modes and taking priority action for safety improvement. The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel approach of data analysis. The approach is to integrate FMEA and a mathematical tool-Data envelopment analysis (DEA) with "slack-based measure" (SBM), in the field of data analysis. The risk indexes (severity, occurrence, and detection) of FMEA are viewed as multiple inputs of DEA. The practicality and usefulness of the proposed approach is illustrated by one case of health care. Being a systematic approach for improving the service quality of health care, the approach can offer quantitative corrective information of risk indexes that thereafter reduce failure possibility. For safety improvement, these new targets of the risk indexes could be used for management by objectives. But FMEA cannot provide quantitative corrective information of risk indexes. The novel approach can surely overcome this chief shortcoming of FMEA. After combining DEA SBM model with FMEA, the two goals-increase of patient safety, medical cost reduction-can be together achieved.

  20. Risk Governance of Multiple Natural Hazards: Centralized versus Decentralized Approach in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komendantova, Nadejda; Scolobig, Anna; Vinchon, Charlotte

    2014-05-01

    The multi-risk approach is a relatively new field and its definition includes the need to consider multiple hazards and vulnerabilities in their interdependency (Selva, 2013) and the current multi-hazards disasters, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and nuclear catastrophe, showed the need for a multi-risk approach in hazard mitigation and management. Our knowledge about multi-risk assessment, including studies from different scientific disciplines and developed assessment tools, is constantly growing (White et al., 2001). However, the link between scientific knowledge, its implementation and the results in terms of improved governance and decision-making have gained significantly less attention (IRGC, 2005; Kappes et al., 2012), even though the interest to risk governance, in general, has increased significantly during the last years (Verweiy and Thompson, 2006). Therefore, the key research question is how risk assessment is implemented and what is the potential for the implementation of a multi-risk approach in different governance systems across Europe. More precisely, how do the characteristics of risk governance, such as the degree of centralization versus decentralization, influence the implementation of a multi-risk approach. The methodology of this research includes comparative case study analysis of top-down and bottom-up interactions in governance in the city of Naples, (Italy), where the institutional landscape is marked by significant autonomy of Italian regions in decision-making processes for assessing the majority of natural risks, excluding volcanic, and in Guadeloupe, French West Indies, an overseas department of France, where the decision-making process is marked by greater centralization in decision making associated with a well established state governance within regions, delegated to the prefect and decentralised services of central ministries. The research design included documentary analysis and extensive empirical work involving

  1. Community, State, and Federal Approaches to Cumulative Risk Assessment: Challenges and Opportunities for Integration

    PubMed Central

    Barzyk, Timothy M.; Wilson, Sacoby; Wilson, Anthony

    2015-01-01

    Community, state, and federal approaches to conventional and cumulative risk assessment (CRA) were described and compared to assess similarities and differences, and develop recommendations for a consistent CRA approach, acceptable across each level as a rigorous scientific methodology, including partnership formation and solution development as necessary practices. Community, state, and federal examples were described and then summarized based on their adherence to CRA principles of: (1) planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2) risk analysis and ranking, and (3) risk characterization, interpretation, and management. While each application shared the common goal of protecting human health and the environment, they adopted different approaches to achieve this. For a specific project-level analysis of a particular place or instance, this may be acceptable, but to ensure long-term applicability and transferability to other projects, recommendations for developing a consistent approach to CRA are provided. This approach would draw from best practices, risk assessment and decision analysis sciences, and historical lessons learned to provide results in an understandable and accepted manner by all entities. This approach is intended to provide a common ground around which to develop CRA methods and approaches that can be followed at all levels. PMID:25918910

  2. Assessments of direct human exposure: the approach of EU risk assessments compared to scenario-based risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Wormuth, Matthias; Demou, Evangelia; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad

    2007-08-01

    The awareness of potential risks emerging from the use of chemicals in all parts of daily life has increased the need for risk assessments that are able to cover a high number of exposure situations and thereby ensure the safety of workers and consumers. In the European Union (EU), the practice of risk assessments for chemicals is laid down in a Technical Guidance Document; it is designed to consider environmental and human occupational and residential exposure. Almost 70 EU risk assessment reports (RARs) have been finalized for high-production-volume chemicals during the last decade. In the present study, we analyze the assessment of occupational and consumer exposure to trichloroethylene and phthalates presented in six EU RARs. Exposure scenarios in these six RARs were compared to scenarios used in applications of the scenario-based risk assessment approach to the same set of chemicals. We find that scenarios used in the selected EU RARs to represent typical exposure situations in occupational or private use of chemicals and products do not necessarily represent worst-case conditions. This can be due to the use of outdated information on technical equipment and conditions in workplaces or omission of pathways that can cause consumer exposure. Considering the need for exposure and risk assessments under the new chemicals legislation of the EU, we suggest that a transparent process of collecting data on exposure situations and of generating representative exposure scenarios is implemented to improve the accuracy of risk assessments. Also, the data sets used to assess human exposure should be harmonized, summarized in a transparent fashion, and made accessible for all risk assessors and the public.

  3. Assessing the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism--a practical approach.

    PubMed

    Fahrni, Jennifer; Husmann, Marc; Gretener, Silvia B; Keo, Hong H

    2015-01-01

    Recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This risk is lowered by anticoagulation, with a large effect in the initial phase following the venous thromboembolic event, and with a smaller effect in terms of secondary prevention of recurrence when extended anticoagulation is performed. On the other hand, extended anticoagulation is associated with an increased risk of major bleeding and thus leads to morbidity and mortality. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk of recurrence for VTE on an individual basis, and a recommendation for secondary prophylaxis should be specifically based on risk calculation of recurrence of VTE and bleeding. In this review, we provide a comprehensive summary of relevant risk factors for recurrent VTE and a practical approach for assessing the risk of recurrence in daily practice.

  4. Risk of Zika virus transmission in the Euro-Mediterranean area and the added value of building preparedness to arboviral threats from a One Health perspective.

    PubMed

    Escadafal, Camille; Gaayeb, Lobna; Riccardo, Flavia; Pérez-Ramírez, Elisa; Picard, Marie; Dente, Maria Grazia; Fernández-Pinero, Jovita; Manuguerra, Jean-Claude; Jiménez-Clavero, Miguel-Ángel; Declich, Silvia; Victoir, Kathleen; Robert, Vincent

    2016-12-03

    In the alarming context of risk of Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission in the Euro-Mediterranean area, there is a need to examine whether capacities to detect, diagnose and notify ZIKV infections in the region are in place and whether ongoing capacity-building initiatives are filling existing gaps.The MediLabSecure network, created in 2014, comprises 55 laboratories of virology and medical entomology and 19 public health institutions in 19 countries in the Balkans, North-Africa, the Middle-East and the Black Sea regions. It aims to set up awareness, risk assessment, monitoring and control of emerging and re-emerging vector-borne viruses. We here examine the actions and strategies that MediLabSecure has been implementing and how they will contribute to the prevention and control of the ZIKV threat in the Euro-Mediterranean area.Capacity-building for arbovirus diagnostics is a major objective of the project and follows a methodological rather than disease-driven approach. This enables the implementation of laboratory trainings on techniques that are common to several arboviruses, including ZIKV, and putting into action appropriate diagnostic tools in the target region.Moreover, by its One Health approach and the interaction of its four sub-networks in human virology, animal virology, medical entomology and public health, MediLabSecure is fostering intersectoral collaboration, expertise and sharing of information. The resulting exchanges (methodological, communication and operational) across disciplines and across countries, dedicated research on intersectoral collaboration and increasing diagnostic capacities are providing new paths and tools to public health professionals to face emerging viral threats such as a ZIKV epidemic in the Euro-Mediterranean region.

  5. The Incremental Diagnostic Performance of Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography Added to Myocardial Perfusion Imaging in Patients with Intermediate-to-High Cardiovascular Risk

    PubMed Central

    Hsu, Pei-Ying; Lee, Wen-Jeng; Cheng, Mei-Fang; Yen, Ruoh-Fang; Tzen, Kai-Yuan; Wu, Yen-Wen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Several studies have suggested that a combined approach of stress myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) and coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) can provide diagnostic results with excellent accuracy. We aimed to explore whether the addition of CCTA to stress MPI provides incremental diagnostic value in intermediate-to-high cardiovascular risk patients. Methods A total of 106 consecutive patients (93 male, 65 ± 10.4 years) underwent coronary artery calcium scoring (CACS), CCTA and 201Thallium stress MPI before coronary angiography was reviewed. Thirty-seven patients (34.9%) had a history of proven coronary artery disease (CAD) or revascularization procedures, and four had documented non-significant CAD (3.8%). The remaining patients consisted of 17 (16.0%) classified as intermediate, and 48 (45.3%) as the high-risk groups. Results Obstructive CAD was diagnosed by invasive coronary angiography in 88 patients with 161 vessels. The sensitivity and specificity in a patient-based analysis for obstructive CAD were 99% and 17% for CCTA, 80% and 50% for MPI and 91% and 67% for the combined method, respectively. The per-vessel diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were 95% and 54% for CCTA, 59% and 75% for MPI and 84% and 76% for the combined method. There were significant differences (p < 0.05) when comparing the combined method with MPI or CCTA by areas under the curve in a patient- or vessel-based analysis. However, CACS of 400 or more could not further stratify the patients with obstructive CAD. Conclusions CCTA, not CACS, provided additional diagnostic values to stress MPI in patients with intermediate-to-high cardiovascular risk. PMID:27122945

  6. An approach for integrating toxicogenomic data in risk assessment: The dibutyl phthalate case study

    SciTech Connect

    Euling, Susan Y.; Thompson, Chad M.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Benson, Robert

    2013-09-15

    An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and recommendations of the scientific community. Dibutyl phthalate (DBP) was selected for the case study exercise. The scoping phase of the dibutyl phthalate case study was conducted by considering the available DBP genomic data, taken together with the entire data set, for whether they could inform various risk assessment aspects, such as toxicodynamics, toxicokinetics, and dose–response. A description of weighing the available dibutyl phthalate data set for utility in risk assessment provides an example for considering genomic data for future chemical assessments. As a result of conducting the scoping process, two questions—Do the DBP toxicogenomic data inform 1) the mechanisms or modes of action?, and 2) the interspecies differences in toxicodynamics?—were selected to focus the case study exercise. Principles of the general approach include considering the genomics data in conjunction with all other data to determine their ability to inform the various qualitative and/or quantitative aspects of risk assessment, and evaluating the relationship between the available genomic and toxicity outcome data with respect to study comparability and phenotypic anchoring. Based on experience from the DBP case study, recommendations and a general approach for integrating genomic data in chemical assessment were developed to advance the broader effort to utilize 21st century data in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Performed DBP case study for integrating genomic data in risk assessment • Present approach for considering genomic data in chemical risk assessment • Present recommendations for use of genomic data in chemical risk assessment.

  7. A Hybrid Latent Class Analysis Modeling Approach to Analyze Urban Expressway Crash Risk.

    PubMed

    Yu, Rongjie; Wang, Xuesong; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

    2017-04-01

    Crash risk analysis is rising as a hot research topic as it could reveal the relationships between traffic flow characteristics and crash occurrence risk, which is beneficial to understand crash mechanisms which would further refine the design of Active Traffic Management System (ATMS). However, the majority of the current crash risk analysis studies have ignored the impact of geometric characteristics on crash risk estimation while recent studies proved that crash occurrence risk was affected by the various alignment features. In this study, a hybrid Latent Class Analysis (LCA) modeling approach was proposed to account for the heterogeneous effects of geometric characteristics. Crashes were first segmented into homogenous subgroups, where the optimal number of latent classes was identified based on bootstrap likelihood ratio tests. Then, separate crash risk analysis models were developed using Bayesian random parameter logistic regression technique; data from Shanghai urban expressway system were employed to conduct the empirical study. Different crash risk contributing factors were unveiled by the hybrid LCA approach and better model goodness-of-fit was obtained while comparing to an overall total crash model. Finally, benefits of the proposed hybrid LCA approach were discussed.

  8. A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management.

    PubMed

    Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-Ya; Li, Xiao-Li; Wang, Da-Zhou; Li, Yu

    2013-10-15

    A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including "residential land" and "industrial land" environmental guidelines under "strict" and "loose" strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management.

  9. Where Lies the Risk? An Ecological Approach to Understanding Child Mental Health Risk and Vulnerabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa

    PubMed Central

    Atilola, Olayinka

    2014-01-01

    Efforts at improving child-health and development initiatives in sub-Saharan Africa had focused on the physical health of children due to the neglect of child and adolescent mental health (CAMH) policy initiatives. A thorough and broad-based understanding of the prevalent child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors is needed to successfully articulate CAMH policies. In this discourse, we present a narrative on the child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors in sub-Saharan Africa. Through an ecological point of view, we identified widespread family poverty, poor availability and uptake of childcare resources, inadequate community and institutional childcare systems, and inadequate framework for social protection for vulnerable children as among the risk and vulnerability factors for CAMH in the region. Others are poor workplace policy/practice that does not support work-family life balance, poor legislative framework for child protection, and some harmful traditional practices. We conclude that an ecological approach shows that child mental-health risks are diverse and cut across different layers of the care environment. The approach also provides a broad and holistic template from which appropriate CAMH policy direction in sub-Saharan Africa can be understood. PMID:24834431

  10. Risk for self-reported anorexia or bulimia nervosa based on drive for thinness and negative affect clusters/dimensions during adolescence: A three-year prospective study of the TChAD cohort

    PubMed Central

    Peñas-Lledó, Eva; Bulik, Cynthia M.; Lichtenstein, Paul; Larsson, Henrik; Baker, Jessica H.

    2015-01-01

    Objective The present study explored the cross-sectional and predictive effect of drive for thinness and/or negative affect scores on the development of self-reported anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN). Method K-means were used to cluster the Eating Disorder Inventory-Drive for Thinness (DT) and Child Behavior Checklist Anxious/Depressed (A/D) scores from 615 unrelated female twins at age 16–17. Logistic regressions were used to assess the effect of these clusters on self-reported eating disorder diagnosis at ages 16–17 (n=565) and 19–20 (n=451). Results DT and A/D scores were grouped into four clusters: Mild (scores lower than 90th percentile on both scales), DT (higher scores only on DT), A/D (higher scores only on A/D), and DT-A/D (higher scores on both the DT and A/D scales). DT and DT-A/D clusters at age 16–17 were associated cross-sectionally with AN and both cross-sectionally and longitudinally with BN. The DT-A/D cluster had the highest prevalence of AN at follow-up compared with all other clusters. Similarly, an interaction was observed between DT and A/D that predicted risk for AN. Discussion Having elevated DT and A/D scores may increase risk for eating disorder symptomatology above and beyond a high score on either alone. Findings suggest that cluster modeling based on DT and A/D may be useful to inform novel and useful intervention strategies for AN and BN in adolescents. PMID:26013185

  11. The SIMEX approach to measurement error correction in meta-analysis with baseline risk as covariate.

    PubMed

    Guolo, A

    2014-05-30

    This paper investigates the use of SIMEX, a simulation-based measurement error correction technique, for meta-analysis of studies involving the baseline risk of subjects in the control group as explanatory variable. The approach accounts for the measurement error affecting the information about either the outcome in the treatment group or the baseline risk available from each study, while requiring no assumption about the distribution of the true unobserved baseline risk. This robustness property, together with the feasibility of computation, makes SIMEX very attractive. The approach is suggested as an alternative to the usual likelihood analysis, which can provide misleading inferential results when the commonly assumed normal distribution for the baseline risk is violated. The performance of SIMEX is compared to the likelihood method and to the moment-based correction through an extensive simulation study and the analysis of two datasets from the medical literature.

  12. Breast cancer risk assessments to barrier contraception exposure. A new approach.

    PubMed

    Gjorgov, N A

    2009-07-01

    (Full text is available at http://www.manu.edu.mk/prilozi). The risk prediction models for breast cancer remain unsatisfactory. The existing models of breast cancer risk assessment have failed to consider (calculate) the exposure to condom use, defined as the major risk factor of breast cancer. All the models, including the NCI-Gail model, are based on the so-called "known" breast cancer risk factors, such as, menarche, age at first birth, parity, OC pills, diet, physical activity, age at menopause, number of breast biopsies, family history, ethnicity (race), age and other. The commonest predictions of the models has been that "All women are at risk of breast cancer," which is deemed as a patently incorrect assessment. The risk assessments have served for identification and recruitment of women at "elevated risk" of breast cancer both for therapeutic randomized clinical trials (RCTs), and for implementing a possible clinical policy of "prophylactic" mastectomy and other prior surgical interventions. However, the models have raised questions lately about their adequacy and practical usefulness, because of the use of "weak" and inadequate risk factors. This study presents the results of a new approach and alternative model and results to the risk assessment of breast cancer, by calculating the exposure to barrier contraceptive practice (condom use and withdrawal practice) along with the factors of parity, age and other (non-barrier) birth-control methods, within a 5-year time period and the life span 20-54 years of age, by employing the Bayes' Probability Theorem. Key words: Breast cancer, Risk Assessment, New Approach, Bayes' Theorem, Parity, Condom Risk Factor, Primary prevention.

  13. Comparison of a Traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approach with Advanced Safety Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Curtis L; Mandelli, Diego; Zhegang Ma

    2014-11-01

    As part of the Light Water Sustainability Program (LWRS) [1], the purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) [2] Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margin management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs. In this paper, we describe the RISMC analysis process illustrating how mechanistic and probabilistic approaches are combined in order to estimate a safety margin. We use the scenario of a “station blackout” (SBO) wherein offsite power and onsite power is lost, thereby causing a challenge to plant safety systems. We describe the RISMC approach, illustrate the station blackout modeling, and contrast this with traditional risk analysis modeling for this type of accident scenario. We also describe our approach we are using to represent advanced flooding analysis.

  14. Multi-hazard national-level risk assessment in Africa using global approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Murnane, Richard

    2016-04-01

    In recent years Sub-Saharan Africa has been characterized by unprecedented opportunity for transformation and sustained growth. However, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and extreme temperatures cause significant economic and human losses, and major development challenges. Quantitative disaster risk assessments are an important basis for governments to understand disaster risk in their country, and to develop effective risk management and risk financing solutions. However, the data-scarce nature of many Sub-Saharan African countries as well as a lack of financing for risk assessments has long prevented detailed analytics. Recent advances in globally applicable disaster risk modelling practices and data availability offer new opportunities. In December 2013 the European Union approved a € 60 million contribution to support the development of an analytical basis for risk financing and to accelerate the effective implementation of a comprehensive disaster risk reduction. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) was selected as the implementing partner of the Program for Result Area 5: the "Africa Disaster Risk Assessment and Financing Program." As part of this effort, the GFDRR is overseeing the production of national-level multi-hazard risk profiles for a range of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, using a combination of national and global datasets and state-of-the-art hazard and risk assessment methodologies. In this presentation, we will highlight the analytical approach behind these assessments, and show results for the first five countries for which the assessment has been completed (Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Niger and Ethiopia). The presentation will also demonstrate the visualization of the risk assessments into understandable and visually attractive risk profile documents.

  15. A Protocol for Percutaneous Transarticular Fixation of Sanders Type II and III Calcaneal Fractures With or Without an Added Mini-Open Approach.

    PubMed

    Gamal, Osama; Shams, Ahmed; El-Sayed Semaya, Ahmad

    Intra-articular fracture of the calcaneus is one of the most displeasing fractures if not properly managed. Open reduction and internal fixation have been associated with a high incidence of postoperative soft tissue complications. Closed reduction and percutaneous fixation have resulted in a greater incidence of postoperative subtalar osteoarthritis with improper reduction of the articular surface. In the present study, a mini-open approach was used in cases of failure of articular surface restoration with closed reduction. A total of 64 feet in 57 consecutive patients with an intra-articular calcaneal fracture underwent the proposed minimally invasive surgical protocol. Of the 57 patients, 7 (12.3%) had bilateral fractures. According to Sanders classification, 33 (51.6%) fractures were type II and 31 (48.4%) were type III. Seven (12.3%) patients had wedge fractures of the dorsolumbar spine without neurologic manifestations. The postoperative evaluation included radiographs and completion of the Maryland Foot Score and visual analog scale for pain. The mean follow-up period was 16 (range 12 to 36) months. The mean operative time was 42 (range 35 to 60) minutes. The mean period until union of the fracture was 12 (range 10 to 16) weeks. The clinical results according to the Maryland Foot Score revealed 52 (81%) with satisfactory (27 excellent and 25 good) and 12 (19%) with unsatisfactory (10 fair and 2 poor) results. The mean visual analog scale score was 1.5 ± 0.3 when radiographic fracture healing was observed. Six patients (9.4%) developed superficial pin tract infections that responded to local care and parenteral antibiotic therapy and resolved completely after removal of the Kirschner wires. In conclusion, the presented surgical protocol combining closed reduction with or without an added mini-open approach and percutaneous fixation improves the functional outcome and minimizes the incidence of complications.

  16. Electrophysiologic testing guided risk stratification approach for sudden cardiac death beyond the left ventricular ejection fraction.

    PubMed

    Gatzoulis, Konstantinos A; Tsiachris, Dimitris; Arsenos, Petros; Tousoulis, Dimitris

    2016-01-26

    Sudden cardiac death threats ischaemic and dilated cardiomyopathy patients. Anti- arrhythmic protection may be provided to these patients with implanted cardiac defibrillators (ICD), after an efficient risk stratification approach. The proposed risk stratifier of an impaired left ventricular ejection fraction has limited sensitivity meaning that a significant number of victims will remain undetectable by this risk stratification approach because they have a preserved left ventricular systolic function. Current risk stratification strategies focus on combinations of non invasive methods like T wave alternans, late potentials, heart rate turbulence, deceleration capacity and others, with invasive methods like the electrophysiologic study. In the presence of an electrically impaired substrate with formed post myocardial infarction fibrotic zones, programmed ventricular stimulation provides important prognostic information for the selection of the patients expected to benefit from an ICD implantation, while due to its high negative predictive value, patients at low risk level may also be detected. Clustering evidence from different research groups and electrophysiologic labs support an electrophysiologic testing guided risk stratification approach for sudden cardiac death.

  17. Combined state-adding and state-deleting approaches to type III multi-step rationally extended potentials: Applications to ladder operators and superintegrability

    SciTech Connect

    Marquette, Ian; Quesne, Christiane

    2014-11-15

    Type III multi-step rationally extended harmonic oscillator and radial harmonic oscillator potentials, characterized by a set of k integers m{sub 1}, m{sub 2}, ⋯, m{sub k}, such that m{sub 1} < m{sub 2} < ⋯ < m{sub k} with m{sub i} even (resp. odd) for i odd (resp. even), are considered. The state-adding and state-deleting approaches to these potentials in a supersymmetric quantum mechanical framework are combined to construct new ladder operators. The eigenstates of the Hamiltonians are shown to separate into m{sub k} + 1 infinite-dimensional unitary irreducible representations of the corresponding polynomial Heisenberg algebras. These ladder operators are then used to build a higher-order integral of motion for seven new infinite families of superintegrable two-dimensional systems separable in cartesian coordinates. The finite-dimensional unitary irreducible representations of the polynomial algebras of such systems are directly determined from the ladder operator action on the constituent one-dimensional Hamiltonian eigenstates and provide an algebraic derivation of the superintegrable systems whole spectrum including the level total degeneracies.

  18. Risk analysis with a fuzzy-logic approach of a complex installation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peikert, Tim; Garbe, Heyno; Potthast, Stefan

    2016-09-01

    This paper introduces a procedural method based on fuzzy logic to analyze systematic the risk of an electronic system in an intentional electromagnetic environment (IEME). The method analyzes the susceptibility of a complex electronic installation with respect to intentional electromagnetic interference (IEMI). It combines the advantages of well-known techniques as fault tree analysis (FTA), electromagnetic topology (EMT) and Bayesian networks (BN) and extends the techniques with an approach to handle uncertainty. This approach uses fuzzy sets, membership functions and fuzzy logic to handle the uncertainty with probability functions and linguistic terms. The linguistic terms add to the risk analysis the knowledge from experts of the investigated system or environment.

  19. The Analysis of Rush Orders Risk in Supply Chain: A Simulation Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mahfouz, Amr; Arisha, Amr

    2011-01-01

    Satisfying customers by delivering demands at agreed time, with competitive prices, and in satisfactory quality level are crucial requirements for supply chain survival. Incidence of risks in supply chain often causes sudden disruptions in the processes and consequently leads to customers losing their trust in a company's competence. Rush orders are considered to be one of the main types of supply chain risks due to their negative impact on the overall performance, Using integrated definition modeling approaches (i.e. IDEF0 & IDEF3) and simulation modeling technique, a comprehensive integrated model has been developed to assess rush order risks and examine two risk mitigation strategies. Detailed functions sequence and objects flow were conceptually modeled to reflect on macro and micro levels of the studied supply chain. Discrete event simulation models were then developed to assess and investigate the mitigation strategies of rush order risks, the objective of this is to minimize order cycle time and cost.

  20. A Stochastic Approach To Human Health Risk Assessment Due To Groundwater Contamination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Barros, F. P.; Rubin, Y.

    2006-12-01

    We present a probabilistic framework to addressing adverse human health effects due to groundwater contamination. One of the main challenges in health risk assessment is in relating it to subsurface data acquisition and to improvement in our understanding of human physiological responses to contamination. In this paper we propose to investigate this problem through an approach that integrates flow, transport and human health risk models with hydrogeological characterization. A human health risk cumulative distribution function is analytically developed to account for both uncertainty and variability in hydrogeological as well as human physiological parameters. With our proposed approach, we investigate under which conditions the reduction of uncertainties from flow physics, human physiology and exposure related parameters might contribute to a better understanding of human health risk assessment. Results indicate that the human health risk cumulative distribution function is sensitive to physiological parameters at low risk values associated with longer travel times. The results show that the worth of hydrogeological characterization in human health risk is dependent on the residence time of the contaminant plume in the aquifer and on the exposure duration of the population to certain chemicals.

  1. Integrating renewable energy technologies in the electric supply industry: A risk management approach

    SciTech Connect

    Hoff, T.E.

    1997-07-01

    Regulatory and technical forces are causing electric utilities to move from a natural monopoly to a more competitive environment. Associated with this movement is an increasing concern about how to manage the risks associated with the electric supply business. One approach to managing risks is to purchase financial instruments such as options and futures contracts. Another approach is to own physical assets that have low risk attributes or characteristics. This research evaluates how investments in renewable energy technologies can mitigate risks in the electric supply industry. It identifies risks that are known to be of concern to utilities and other power producers. These risks include uncertainty in fuel prices, demand, environmental regulations, capital cost, supply, and market structure. The research then determines how investments in renewables can mitigate these risks. Methods are developed to calculate the value of renewables in terms of their attributes of fuel costs, environmental costs, lead-time, modularity, availability, initial capital costs, and investment reversibility. Examples illustrate how to apply the methods.

  2. An Approach for Quantitatively Balancing Methylmercury Risk and Omega-3 Benefit in Fish Consumption Advisories

    PubMed Central

    Korn, Leo R.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Nearly all fish consumption advisories for methylmercury (MeHg) are based only on risk. There is a need to also address benefits, especially those from polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), in neurodevelopmental function and cardiovascular health. However, because MeHg and PUFA generally act on these same end points, disentangling risk and benefit is challenging. Objectives: We propose an approach for balancing risk and benefit that is based on the use of statistically dissociated measures of risk and benefit. Discussion: Because of mutual coexposure of MeHg and PUFAs in population-based studies and their opposite effect on many of the same end points, MeHg risk and PUFA benefit are tightly linked statistically, which results in mutual (negative) confounding. Thus, neither MeHg risk nor PUFA benefit can be accurately quantified without taking the other into account. A statistical approach that generates unconfounded risk and benefit coefficients for each end point can permit their subsequent recombination to describe the overall risk–benefit profile of each species of fish or fish diet. However, it appears that some end points may be adversely affected by MeHg without experiencing counterbalancing benefit from PUFAs. Such end points may drive consumption advisories and may preclude balancing of risk and benefit on the basis of other end points. Conclusions: Our thinking about fish consumption advisories now recognizes the need to balance risk and benefit. However, although statistical analysis of the appropriate data can eliminate mutual confounding, care is required to address the most sensitive end points that may be sensitive to risk and not benefit. PMID:21543281

  3. From network analysis to risk analysis--An approach to risk-based surveillance for bovine tuberculosis in Minnesota, US.

    PubMed

    Ribeiro-Lima, J; Enns, E A; Thompson, B; Craft, M E; Wells, S J

    2015-03-01

    Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) was first detected in 2005 in cattle in northwestern Minnesota (MN) through slaughter surveillance. By the end of 2008, 12 cattle herds were infected with bTB, and the main cause for infection was determined to be the movement of infected animals between herds. Bovine tuberculosis was contained in a smaller area in northwestern Minnesota classified as modified accredited (MA), corresponding to a prevalence inferior to 0.1% in cattle. From January 2008 to 2011, all cattle movements within the bTB MA were recorded electronically. The primary objectives of this study were to characterize cattle movements within this region and identify cattle herds with higher risk of bTB introduction based on network parameters and known risk factors from the published literature. During the period that data was collected, 57,460 cattle were moved in 3762 movements corresponding to permits issued to 682 premises, mostly representing private farms, sale yards, slaughter facilities and county or state fairs. Although sale yards represented less than 2% of the premises (nodes), 60% of the movements were to or from a sale yard. The network showed an overall density of 0.4%, a clustering coefficient of 14.6% and a betweenness centralization index of 12.7%, reflecting the low connectivity of this cattle network. The degree distribution showed that 20% of nodes performed 90% of the movements. Farms were ranked based on the total risk score and divided into high, medium, and low risk groups based on the score and its variability. The higher risk group included 14% (n=50) of the farms, corresponding to 80% of the cumulative risk for the farms in the bTB area. This analysis provides a baseline description about the contact structure of cattle movements in an area previously infected with bTB and develops a framework for a targeted surveillance approach for bTB to support future surveillance decisions.

  4. Orientifolded locally AdS3 geometries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loran, F.; Sheikh-Jabbari, M. M.

    2011-01-01

    Continuing the analysis of [Loran F and Sheikh-Jabbari M M 2010 Phys. Lett. B 693 184-7], we classify all locally AdS3 stationary axi-symmetric unorientable solutions to AdS3 Einstein gravity and show that they are obtained by applying certain orientifold projection on AdS3, BTZ or AdS3 self-dual orbifold, respectively, O-AdS3, O-BTZ and O-SDO geometries. Depending on the orientifold fixed surface, the O-surface, which is either a space-like 2D plane or a cylinder, or a light-like 2D plane or a cylinder, one can distinguish four distinct cases. For the space-like orientifold plane or cylinder cases, these geometries solve AdS3 Einstein equations and are hence locally AdS3 everywhere except at the O-surface, where there is a delta-function source. For the light-like cases, the geometry is a solution to Einstein equations even at the O-surface. We discuss the causal structure for static, extremal and general rotating O-BTZ and O-SDO cases as well as the geodesic motion on these geometries. We also discuss orientifolding Poincaré patch AdS3 and AdS2 geometries as a way to geodesic completion of these spaces and comment on the 2D CFT dual to the O-geometries.

  5. A moni-modelling approach to manage groundwater risk to pesticide leaching at regional scale.

    PubMed

    Di Guardo, Andrea; Finizio, Antonio

    2016-03-01

    Historically, the approach used to manage risk of chemical contamination of water bodies is based on the use of monitoring programmes, which provide a snapshot of the presence/absence of chemicals in water bodies. Monitoring is required in the current EU regulations, such as the Water Framework Directive (WFD), as a tool to record temporal variation in the chemical status of water bodies. More recently, a number of models have been developed and used to forecast chemical contamination of water bodies. These models combine information of chemical properties, their use, and environmental scenarios. Both approaches are useful for risk assessors in decision processes. However, in our opinion, both show flaws and strengths when taken alone. This paper proposes an integrated approach (moni-modelling approach) where monitoring data and modelling simulations work together in order to provide a common decision framework for the risk assessor. This approach would be very useful, particularly for the risk management of pesticides at a territorial level. It fulfils the requirement of the recent Sustainable Use of Pesticides Directive. In fact, the moni-modelling approach could be used to identify sensible areas where implement mitigation measures or limitation of use of pesticides, but even to effectively re-design future monitoring networks or to better calibrate the pedo-climatic input data for the environmental fate models. A case study is presented, where the moni-modelling approach is applied in Lombardy region (North of Italy) to identify groundwater vulnerable areas to pesticides. The approach has been applied to six active substances with different leaching behaviour, in order to highlight the advantages in using the proposed methodology.

  6. An integrated fuzzy-stochastic modeling approach for risk assessment of groundwater contamination.

    PubMed

    Li, Jianbing; Huang, Gordon H; Zeng, Guangming; Maqsood, Imran; Huang, Yuefei

    2007-01-01

    An integrated fuzzy-stochastic risk assessment (IFSRA) approach was developed in this study to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with site conditions, environmental guidelines, and health impact criteria. The contaminant concentrations in groundwater predicted from a numerical model were associated with probabilistic uncertainties due to the randomness in modeling input parameters, while the consequences of contaminant concentrations violating relevant environmental quality guidelines and health evaluation criteria were linked with fuzzy uncertainties. The contaminant of interest in this study was xylene. The environmental quality guideline was divided into three different strictness categories: "loose", "medium" and "strict". The environmental-guideline-based risk (ER) and health risk (HR) due to xylene ingestion were systematically examined to obtain the general risk levels through a fuzzy rule base. The ER and HR risk levels were divided into five categories of "low", "low-to-medium", "medium", "medium-to-high" and "high", respectively. The general risk levels included six categories ranging from "low" to "very high". The fuzzy membership functions of the related fuzzy events and the fuzzy rule base were established based on a questionnaire survey. Thus the IFSRA integrated fuzzy logic, expert involvement, and stochastic simulation within a general framework. The robustness of the modeling processes was enhanced through the effective reflection of the two types of uncertainties as compared with the conventional risk assessment approaches. The developed IFSRA was applied to a petroleum-contaminated groundwater system in western Canada. Three scenarios with different environmental quality guidelines were analyzed, and reasonable results were obtained. The risk assessment approach developed in this study offers a unique tool for systematically quantifying various uncertainties in contaminated site management, and it also

  7. Review of ecological-based risk management approaches used at five Army Superfund sites.

    PubMed

    Poucher, Sherri L; Tracey, Gregory A; Johnson, Mark S; Haines, Laurie B

    2012-04-01

    Factors used in environmental remedial decision making concerning ecological risk are not well understood or necessarily consistent. Recent Records of Decision (RODs) for Army CERCLA sites were reviewed to select case studies where remedial management occurred in response to ecological risks. Thirty-four Army RODs were evaluated representing decisions promulgated between 1996 and 2004. Five were selected based on assessments that remedial actions were clearly linked to concern for ecological receptors. The Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) approach and the subsequent risk management process were reviewed for each site. The case studies demonstrated that the ERA findings, as well as critical management decisions regarding interpretation of identified ecological risks, were determinants of remedial action objectives. Decisions regarding the selection of remedial alternatives were based on a set of criteria prescribed by Superfund requirements and guidance. Remedial alternative evaluations require protection of human health and the environment, but protective conditions were determined using different methods at each site. Examining the remedial management process for the 5 case study sites revealed that uncertainty in the risk assessment and decisions regarding appropriate spatial scales for both risk assessment and remediation were important factors influencing remedial action decisions. The case reviews also revealed that levels of documentation were variable from site to site. In the future, more detailed documentation of decision criteria and the development of criteria that consider the resilience of the site will result in more technically defensible ecological risk management.

  8. Development of a risk-based approach to Hanford Site cleanup

    SciTech Connect

    Hesser, W.A.; Daling, P.M.; Baynes, P.A.

    1995-06-01

    In response to a request from Mr. Thomas Grumbly, Assistant Secretary of Energy for Environmental Management, the Hanford Site contractors developed a conceptual set of risk-based cleanup strategies that (1) protect the public, workers, and environment from unacceptable risks; (2) are executable technically; and (3) fit within an expected annual funding profile of 1.05 billion dollars. These strategies were developed because (1) the US Department of Energy and Hanford Site budgets are being reduced, (2) stakeholders are dissatisfied with the perceived rate of cleanup, (3) the US Congress and the US Department of Energy are increasingly focusing on risk and riskreduction activities, (4) the present strategy is not integrated across the Site and is inconsistent in its treatment of similar hazards, (5) the present cleanup strategy is not cost-effective from a risk-reduction or future land use perspective, and (6) the milestones and activities in the Tri-Party Agreement cannot be achieved with an anticipated funding of 1.05 billion dollars annually. The risk-based strategies described herein were developed through a systems analysis approach that (1) analyzed the cleanup mission; (2) identified cleanup objectives, including risk reduction, land use, and mortgage reduction; (3) analyzed the existing baseline cleanup strategy from a cost and risk perspective; (4) developed alternatives for accomplishing the cleanup mission; (5) compared those alternatives against cleanup objectives; and (6) produced conclusions and recommendations regarding the current strategy and potential risk-based strategies.

  9. Ethylene oxide: induction of specific-locus mutations in the ad-3 region of heterokaryon 12 of Neurospora crassa and implications for genetic risk assessment of human exposure in the workplace.

    PubMed

    de Serres, F J; Brockman, H E

    1995-04-01

    mutagenic specificity of other chemical mutagens and carcinogens in the ad-3 forward-mutation assay in Neurospora. The utilization of the Neurospora specific-locus data on ETO and those from experiments in the mouse and Drosophila, by others, is discussed for genetic risk assessment of germ-cell effects resulting from human exposure to ETO in the workplace.

  10. Evaluating the Mental Models Approach to Developing a Risk Communication: A Scoping Review of the Evidence.

    PubMed

    Boase, Nick; White, Mathew; Gaze, William; Redshaw, Clare

    2017-03-17

    Risk communication is fundamental in ensuring people are equipped with the knowledge needed to navigate varied risks. One generally well-regarded framework for the development of such communications is the mental models approach to risk communication (MMARC). Developed during the 1990s, the MMARC has been applied to a range of health, technological, and environmental risks. However, as yet, we know of no attempt to collate and review articles that evaluated communications developed using the MMARC. This article took a first step at addressing this gap by conducting a scoping review that aimed to begin to explore the fidelity with which the approach has been applied, explore whether there appeared to be sufficient studies to warrant a future systematic review, and identify future research questions. Although the initial search found over 100 articles explicitly applying the MMARC, only 12 of these developed a risk-related communication that was tested against a control (and thus included in the current review). All studies reported a positive effect of the MMARC versus control communication for at least some of the outcome measures (knowledge being the most prevalent). However, there was wide variation between studies including type of control, outcomes assessed, and only five studies reported adopting a randomized design. The review highlights both the need for greater fidelity in the way future studies operationalize the MMARC approach, and suggests that a full-scale systematic review of the MMARC literature appears justified, especially given the possibility of a large gray literature in this area.

  11. Determining the familial risk distribution of colorectal cancer: a data mining approach.

    PubMed

    Chau, Rowena; Jenkins, Mark A; Buchanan, Daniel D; Ait Ouakrim, Driss; Giles, Graham G; Casey, Graham; Gallinger, Steven; Haile, Robert W; Le Marchand, Loic; Newcomb, Polly A; Lindor, Noralane M; Hopper, John L; Win, Aung Ko

    2016-04-01

    This study was aimed to characterize the distribution of colorectal cancer risk using family history of cancers by data mining. Family histories for 10,066 colorectal cancer cases recruited to population cancer registries of the Colon Cancer Family Registry were analyzed using a data mining framework. A novel index was developed to quantify familial cancer aggregation. Artificial neural network was used to identify distinct categories of familial risk. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of colorectal cancer were calculated for each category. We identified five major, and 66 minor categories of familial risk for developing colorectal cancer. The distribution the major risk categories were: (1) 7% of families (SIR = 7.11; 95% CI 6.65-7.59) had a strong family history of colorectal cancer; (2) 13% of families (SIR = 2.94; 95% CI 2.78-3.10) had a moderate family history of colorectal cancer; (3) 11% of families (SIR = 1.23; 95% CI 1.12-1.36) had a strong family history of breast cancer and a weak family history of colorectal cancer; (4) 9 % of families (SIR = 1.06; 95 % CI 0.96-1.18) had strong family history of prostate cancer and weak family history of colorectal cancer; and (5) 60% of families (SIR = 0.61; 95% CI 0.57-0.65) had a weak family history of all cancers. There is a wide variation of colorectal cancer risk that can be categorized by family history of cancer, with a strong gradient of colorectal cancer risk between the highest and lowest risk categories. The risk of colorectal cancer for people with the highest risk category of family history (7% of the population) was 12-times that for people in the lowest risk category (60%) of the population. Data mining was proven an effective approach for gaining insight into the underlying cancer aggregation patterns and for categorizing familial risk of colorectal cancer.

  12. DEVELOPING MECHANISTIC DATA FOR INCORPORATION INTO CANCER AND GENETIC RISK ASSESSMENTS: OLD PROBLEMS AND NEW APPROACHES

    EPA Science Inventory

    26th Lauriston S. Taylor Lecture
    DEVELOPING MECHANISTIC DATA FOR INCORPORATION INTO CANCER AND
    GENETIC RISK ASSESSMENTS: OLD PROBLEMS AND NEW APPROACHES
    R. Julian Preston, Environmental Carcinogenesis Division, U.S. Environmental Protection
    Agency, NHEERL, Research Tr...

  13. The Baby TALK Model: An Innovative Approach to Identifying High-Risk Children and Families

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Villalpando, Aimee Hilado; Leow, Christine; Hornstein, John

    2012-01-01

    This research report examines the Baby TALK model, an innovative early childhood intervention approach used to identify, recruit, and serve young children who are at-risk for developmental delays, mental health needs, and/or school failure, and their families. The report begins with a description of the model. This description is followed by an…

  14. Gendered Perspectives about Water Risks and Policy Strategies: A Tripartite Conceptual Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larson, Kelli L.; Ibes, Dorothy C.; White, Dave D.

    2011-01-01

    Previous research has examined gendered perspectives on a variety of environmental risks. Mixed results complicate the ability to make generalizations about human-ecological judgments, largely because of the use of inconsistent conceptual and methodological approaches in previous work. Following the tripartite model, we examine differences between…

  15. Integrating a Risk-based Approach and ISO 62304 into a Quality System for Medical Devices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bianco, Celestina

    A recent standard for medical device software lifecycle processes, ISO/IEC 62304 (ISO 2006), assumes and specifies a software safety classification scheme, where documentation, verification and validation tasks to be carried out depend on the safety classification. This means that a risk-driven approach has become an accepted standard for medical devices.

  16. The STD and HIV Epidemics in African American Youth: Reconceptualizing Approaches to Risk Reduction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, Kim S.; Boyer, Cherrie B.; Cotton, Garnette

    2004-01-01

    Sexually transmitted infections, including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), disproportionately affect African American adolescents and young adults. Many of our current strategies and approaches have been inadequate in the promotion of risk reduction among youth and need to be reconceptualized. This article identifies issues that may guide…

  17. A systematic risk management approach employed on the CloudSat project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basilio, R. R.; Plourde, K. S.; Lam, T.

    2000-01-01

    The CloudSat Project has developed a simplified approach for fault tree analysis and probabilistic risk assessment. A system-level fault tree has been constructed to identify credible fault scenarios and failure modes leading up to a potential failure to meet the nominal mission success criteria.

  18. Recommended approaches to the scientific evaluation of environmental hazards and risks of endocrine-active substances

    EPA Science Inventory

    A SETAC Pellston Workshop™ ?‘Environmental Hazard and Risk Assessment Approaches for Endocrine-Active Substances (EHRA)’ was held from 31st January to 5th February 2016 in Pensacola, Florida, USA. The primary aim of the workshop was to provide objective advice, ...

  19. Mitigating Real or Perceived Risks: A Pro-Active Approach for Dealing with Naysayers and Critics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schutte, Bart; Jones, Kevin

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews an approach to mitigating real or perceived risks from "Naysayers" and critics in developing and using the software tools available with web 2.0. Some of the issues are about the use of the tools, the ability of management to control the use of these tools, privacy issues and the time the people spend using these tools.

  20. Risk-based approach for controlling beryllium exposure in a manufacturing environment

    SciTech Connect

    Gilmore, W. E.; Clawson, C. D.; Ellis, K. K.

    2003-01-01

    There are many diverse uses for beryllium in both military and industrial applications. Unfortunately, there are certain worker health risks associated with the manufacture and production of beryllium products. Respiratory illnesses due to prolonged contact with beryllium particulate are of paramount concern. However, these health risks can be controlled provided that the appropriate protective measures to prevent worker exposure from beryllium are in place. But it is no1 always a straightforward process to identify exactly what the beryllium protective measures should be in order to realize a true risk savings. Without prudent attention to a systematic inquiry and suitable evaluative criteria, a program for controlling beryllium health risks can be lacking in completeness and overall effectiveness. One approach that took into account the necessary ingredients for risk-based determination of beryllium protective measures was developed for a beryllium operation at a Department of Energy (DOE) facility. The methodological framework that was applied at this facility, as well as a discussion of the final beryllium protective measures that were determined by this approach will be presented. Regulatory aspects for working with beryllium, as well as a risk-assessment strategy for ranking beryllium-handling activities with respect to exposure potential will also be discussed. The presentation will conclude with a synopsis of lessons-learned as gleaned from this case study, as well as providing the participants with a constructive blueprint that can be adapted to other processes involving beryllium.

  1. An approach towards a parameterised model for risk assessment of hydraulic fracturing operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gläser, Dennis; Class, Holger; Kissinger, Alexander; Beck, Martin

    2016-04-01

    The main ambition of the recently started research project FracRisk (funded within the EU Horizon 2020 programme) is the development of a comprehensive knowledge base and the formulation of scientific recommendations, which can contribute to efforts aimed at minimising the environmental footprint of shale gas production while addressing scientific and public concerns. Forward numerical modelling linked to a detailed risk and uncertainty assessment is applied for estimating the mechanical, hydromechanical, and geochemical consequences resulting from hydraulic fracturing. To capture a broad range of environmental risks, six exemplary scenarios focussing on different physical processes on different spatial and temporal scales are investigated. An approach regarding sources, pathways and targets is used for the quantification of the environmental impacts. A fundamental understanding of the potential risks is achieved by allowing for mutual feedback between the scenarios, identifying key parameters and processes. The coupling of the scenarios to a Polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) paves the way to an abstracted and parameterised model for risk assessment to be used both by regulators and contractors. This contribution at an early stage of the project will elaborate on the general workflow of implementing focussed scenarios into a PCE-based Monte-Carlo approach to parameter sensitivities, that will eventually be embedded into a FEP-based (features, events, processes) evaluation of risk and counteractive measures.

  2. Revisiting the thermodynamic relations in AdS /CMT models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hyun, Seungjoon; Park, Sang-A.; Yi, Sang-Heon

    2017-03-01

    Motivated by the recent unified approach to the Smarr-like relation of anti-de Sitter (AdS) planar black holes in conjunction with the quasilocal formalism on conserved charges, we revisit the quantum statistical and thermodynamic relations of hairy AdS planar black holes. By extending the previous results, we identify the hairy contribution in the bulk and show that the holographic computation can be improved so that it is consistent with the bulk computation. We argue that the first law can be retained in its universal form and that the relation between the on-shell renormalized Euclidean action and its free energy interpretation in gravity may also be undeformed even with the hairy contribution in hairy AdS black holes.

  3. An integrative approach to assess ecological risks of surface water contamination for fish populations.

    PubMed

    Santos, Raphael; Joyeux, Aude; Besnard, Aurélien; Blanchard, Christophe; Halkett, Cédric; Bony, Sylvie; Sanchez, Wilfried; Devaux, Alain

    2017-01-01

    Contamination of aquatic ecosystems is considered as one of the main threats to global freshwater biodiversity. Within the European Water Framework Directive (EU-WFD) a particular attention is dedicated to assess ecological risks of surface water contamination and mitigation of chemical pressures on aquatic ecosystems. In this work, we evaluated ecological risks of surface water contamination for fish populations in four EU-WFD rivers through an integrative approach investigating three Lines of Evidence (chemical contamination, biomarker responses as early warning signals of contamination impacting individuals and ecological analyses as an indicator of fish community disturbances). This work illustrates through 4 case studies the complementary role of biomarkers, chemical and ecological analyses which, used in combination, provide fundamental information to understand impacts of chemical pressures that can affect fish population dynamics. We discuss the limitations of this approach and future improvements needed within the EU-WFD to assess ecological risk of river contamination for fish populations.

  4. Risk, Uncertainty and Precaution in Science: The Threshold of the Toxicological Concern Approach in Food Toxicology.

    PubMed

    Bschir, Karim

    2017-04-01

    Environmental risk assessment is often affected by severe uncertainty. The frequently invoked precautionary principle helps to guide risk assessment and decision-making in the face of scientific uncertainty. In many contexts, however, uncertainties play a role not only in the application of scientific models but also in their development. Building on recent literature in the philosophy of science, this paper argues that precaution should be exercised at the stage when tools for risk assessment are developed as well as when they are used to inform decision-making. The relevance and consequences of this claim are discussed in the context of the threshold of the toxicological concern approach in food toxicology. I conclude that the approach does not meet the standards of an epistemic version of the precautionary principle.

  5. Map Your Hazards! - an Interdisciplinary, Place-Based Educational Approach to Assessing Natural Hazards, Social Vulnerability, Risk and Risk Perception.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brand, B. D.; McMullin-Messier, P. A.; Schlegel, M. E.

    2014-12-01

    'Map your Hazards' is an educational module developed within the NSF Interdisciplinary Teaching about Earth for a Sustainable Future program (InTeGrate). The module engages students in place-based explorations of natural hazards, social vulnerability, and the perception of natural hazards and risk. Students integrate geoscience and social science methodologies to (1) identify and assess hazards, vulnerability and risk within their communities; (2) distribute, collect and evaluate survey data (designed by authors) on the knowledge, risk perception and preparedness within their social networks; and (3) deliver a PPT presentation to local stakeholders detailing their findings and recommendations for development of a prepared, resilient community. 'Map your Hazards' underwent four rigorous assessments by a team of geoscience educators and external review before being piloted in our classrooms. The module was piloted in a 300-level 'Volcanoes and Society' course at Boise State University, a 300-level 'Environmental Sociology' course at Central Washington University, and a 100-level 'Natural Disasters and Environmental Geology' course at the College of Western Idaho. In all courses students reported a fascination with learning about the hazards around them and identifying the high risk areas in their communities. They were also surprised at the low level of knowledge, inaccurate risk perception and lack of preparedness of their social networks. This successful approach to engaging students in an interdisciplinary, place-based learning environment also has the broad implications of raising awareness of natural hazards (survey participants are provided links to local hazard and preparedness information). The data and preparedness suggestions can be shared with local emergency managers, who are encouraged to attend the student's final presentations. All module materials are published at serc.carleton.edu/integrate/ and are appropriate to a wide range of classrooms.

  6. The Added-Value of Using Participatory Approaches to Assess the Acceptability of Surveillance Systems: The Case of Bovine Tuberculosis in Belgium

    PubMed Central

    Calba, Clémentine; Goutard, Flavie Luce; Vanholme, Luc; Antoine-Moussiaux, Nicolas; Hendrikx, Pascal; Saegerman, Claude

    2016-01-01

    added value of the participatory approach was highlighted. PMID:27462705

  7. Scattering States in AdS/CFT

    SciTech Connect

    Fitzpatrick, A.Liam; Kaplan, Jared; /SLAC

    2012-02-14

    We show that suitably regulated multi-trace primary states in large N CFTs behave like 'in' and 'out' scattering states in the flat-space limit of AdS. Their transition matrix elements approach the exact scattering amplitudes for the bulk theory, providing a natural CFT definition of the flat space S-Matrix. We study corrections resulting from the AdS curvature and particle propagation far from the center of AdS, and show that AdS simply provides an IR regulator that disappears in the flat space limit.

  8. Identifying Risk and Protective Factors in Recidivist Juvenile Offenders: A Decision Tree Approach.

    PubMed

    Ortega-Campos, Elena; García-García, Juan; Gil-Fenoy, Maria José; Zaldívar-Basurto, Flor

    2016-01-01

    Research on juvenile justice aims to identify profiles of risk and protective factors in juvenile offenders. This paper presents a study of profiles of risk factors that influence young offenders toward committing sanctionable antisocial behavior (S-ASB). Decision tree analysis is used as a multivariate approach to the phenomenon of repeated sanctionable antisocial behavior in juvenile offenders in Spain. The study sample was made up of the set of juveniles who were charged in a court case in the Juvenile Court of Almeria (Spain). The period of study of recidivism was two years from the baseline. The object of study is presented, through the implementation of a decision tree. Two profiles of risk and protective factors are found. Risk factors associated with higher rates of recidivism are antisocial peers, age at baseline S-ASB, problems in school and criminality in family members.

  9. Approaches to assessing the risk of chemical contamination of Urban Soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Makarov, O. A.; Makarov, A. A.

    2016-09-01

    The existing approaches to studying the risk of chemical contamination of soils are analyzed. It is noted that the actual and critical loads of contaminants on the soil cover are often compared for estimating these risks. The insufficient use of economic tools and methods for assessing the risk of soil contamination is emphasized. The sanitary-hygienic standards are found out to be exceeded for lead, zinc, cadmium and copper content in soils in six localities, each of 6250 m2 in the area, situated in the industrial and transport zones of Podol'sk and Moscow. The values of actual and maximal permissible damage exerted by the heavy-metal contamination to the studied soils are calculated. The probable damage R and the degree of probable damage implementation (DPDI) are used as the indices of soil contamination risk.

  10. Identifying Risk and Protective Factors in Recidivist Juvenile Offenders: A Decision Tree Approach

    PubMed Central

    Ortega-Campos, Elena; García-García, Juan; Gil-Fenoy, Maria José; Zaldívar-Basurto, Flor

    2016-01-01

    Research on juvenile justice aims to identify profiles of risk and protective factors in juvenile offenders. This paper presents a study of profiles of risk factors that influence young offenders toward committing sanctionable antisocial behavior (S-ASB). Decision tree analysis is used as a multivariate approach to the phenomenon of repeated sanctionable antisocial behavior in juvenile offenders in Spain. The study sample was made up of the set of juveniles who were charged in a court case in the Juvenile Court of Almeria (Spain). The period of study of recidivism was two years from the baseline. The object of study is presented, through the implementation of a decision tree. Two profiles of risk and protective factors are found. Risk factors associated with higher rates of recidivism are antisocial peers, age at baseline S-ASB, problems in school and criminality in family members. PMID:27611313

  11. Cooperation versus confrontation: a comparison of approaches to environmental risk management in Japan and the United States

    SciTech Connect

    Covello, V.T.; Kawamura, K.; Boroush, M.; Ikeda, S.; Lynes, P.F.; Minor, M.S.

    1988-06-01

    This paper compares approaches to environmental risk management in Japan and the US. The paper includes a historical examination of two case studies of environmental risk management: synthetic detergents and lead in gasoline. In addition, the paper discusses several important differences between Japan and the US, including (a) different attitudes toward separating environmental risk management from environmental risk assessment, and (b) different approaches toward environmental risk management. Specifically, the Japanese approach is based largely on a cooperative model of risk management, with a strong emphasis on negotiation and consensus-building, while the US approach is based largely on a confrontational model of risk management, with a strong emphasis on rigorous scientific analysis and open adversarial processes.

  12. Monitoring schistosomiasis risk in East China over space and time using a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Hu, Yi; Ward, Michael P; Xia, Congcong; Li, Rui; Sun, Liqian; Lynn, Henry; Gao, Fenghua; Wang, Qizhi; Zhang, Shiqing; Xiong, Chenglong; Zhang, Zhijie; Jiang, Qingwu

    2016-04-07

    Schistosomiasis remains a major public health problem and causes substantial economic impact in east China, particularly along the Yangtze River Basin. Disease forecasting and surveillance can assist in the development and implementation of more effective intervention measures to control disease. In this study, we applied a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model to describe trends in schistosomiasis risk in Anhui Province, China, using annual parasitological and environmental data for the period 1997-2010. A computationally efficient approach-Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation-was used for model inference. A zero-inflated, negative binomial model best described the spatio-temporal dynamics of schistosomiasis risk. It predicted that the disease risk would generally be low and stable except for some specific, local areas during the period 2011-2014. High-risk counties were identified in the forecasting maps: three in which the risk remained high, and two in which risk would become high. The results indicated that schistosomiasis risk has been reduced to consistently low levels throughout much of this region of China; however, some counties were identified in which progress in schistosomiasis control was less than satisfactory. Whilst maintaining overall control, specific interventions in the future should focus on these refractive counties as part of a strategy to eliminate schistosomiasis from this region.

  13. Bacterial adhesion: considerations within a risk-based approach to cleaning validation.

    PubMed

    Tidswell, Edward C

    2005-01-01

    Pharmaceutical manufacturing processes are vulnerable to varying degrees of microbial challenge (hazard) quantifiable as microbial ingress, and microbial retention risks affecting raw materials and inputs to the final product. Control over these risks is exacted by both purposefully designed and incidental (or fortuitous) properties of the manufacturing processes. Within the manufacturing environment, equipment cleaning and hold processes are uniquely prone to microbial challenge yet paradoxically demonstrate the greatest potential for mitigation of these risks. Cognition of those components and contributing factors associated with microbial challenge are necessary to facilitate scientifically sound risk assessments. In the context of equipment cleaning and hold processes, risk assessments are necessary to identify and contrive conditions, which are truly worst case for the validation of the control of microbial challenge. A number of components contribute to the risk of microbial retention, yet the phenomenon of microbial adhesion to surfaces remains one of the most ubiquitous and perplexing. The dual purpose of this review is to primarily précis and provide in a single reference those multi-factorial features and variables contributing to bacterial adhesion, and secondly to provide a guide for interpretation of those considerations for integration into a risk-based approach to cleaning validation.

  14. An Evidenced-Based Approach for Estimating Decompression Sickness Risk in Aircraft Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robinson, Ronald R.; Dervay, Joseph P.; Conkin, Johnny

    1999-01-01

    Estimating the risk of decompression Sickness (DCS) in aircraft operations remains a challenge, making the reduction of this risk through the development of operationally acceptable denitrogenation schedules difficult. In addition, the medical recommendations which are promulgated are often not supported by rigorous evaluation of the available data, but are instead arrived at by negotiation with the aircraft operations community, are adapted from other similar aircraft operations, or are based upon the opinion of the local medical community. We present a systematic approach for defining DCS risk in aircraft operations by analyzing the data available for a specific aircraft, flight profile, and aviator population. Once the risk of DCS in a particular aircraft operation is known, appropriate steps can be taken to reduce this risk to a level acceptable to the applicable aviation community. Using this technique will allow any aviation medical community to arrive at the best estimate of DCS risk for its specific mission and aviator population and will allow systematic reevaluation of the decisions regarding DCS risk reduction when additional data are available.

  15. Environmental risk assessment of white phosphorus from the use of munitions - a probabilistic approach.

    PubMed

    Voie, Øyvind Albert; Johnsen, Arnt; Strømseng, Arnljot; Longva, Kjetil Sager

    2010-03-15

    White phosphorus (P(4)) is a highly toxic compound used in various pyrotechnic products. Ammunitions containing P(4) are widely used in military training areas where the unburned products of P(4) contaminate soil and local ponds. Traditional risk assessment methods presuppose a homogeneous spatial distribution of pollutants. The distribution of P(4) in military training areas is heterogeneous, which reduces the probability of potential receptors being exposed to the P(4) by ingestion, for example. The current approach to assess the environmental risk from the use of P(4) suggests a Bayesian network (Bn) as a risk assessment tool. The probabilistic reasoning supported by a Bn allows us to take into account the heterogeneous distribution of P(4). Furthermore, one can combine empirical data and expert knowledge, which allows the inclusion of all kinds of data that are relevant to the problem. The current work includes an example of the use of the Bn as a risk assessment tool where the risk for P(4) poisoning in humans and grazing animals at a military shooting range in Northern Norway was calculated. P(4) was detected in several craters on the range at concentrations up to 5.7g/kg. The risk to human health was considered acceptable under the current land use. The risk for grazing animals such as sheep, however, was higher, suggesting that precautionary measures may be advisable.

  16. Review of NASA approach to space radiation risk assessments for Mars exploration.

    PubMed

    Cucinotta, Francis A

    2015-02-01

    Long duration space missions present unique radiation protection challenges due to the complexity of the space radiation environment, which includes high charge and energy particles and other highly ionizing radiation such as neutrons. Based on a recommendation by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements, a 3% lifetime risk of exposure-induced death for cancer has been used as a basis for risk limitation by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for low-Earth orbit missions. NASA has developed a risk-based approach to radiation exposure limits that accounts for individual factors (age, gender, and smoking history) and assesses the uncertainties in risk estimates. New radiation quality factors with associated probability distribution functions to represent the quality factor's uncertainty have been developed based on track structure models and recent radiobiology data for high charge and energy particles. The current radiation dose limits are reviewed for spaceflight and the various qualitative and quantitative uncertainties that impact the risk of exposure-induced death estimates using the NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model. NSCR estimates of the number of "safe days" in deep space to be within exposure limits and risk estimates for a Mars exploration mission are described.

  17. Warped AdS3 black holes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anninos, Dionysios; Li, Wei; Padi, Megha; Song, Wei; Strominger, Andrew

    2009-03-01

    Three dimensional topologically massive gravity (TMG) with a negative cosmological constant -l-2 and positive Newton constant G admits an AdS3 vacuum solution for any value of the graviton mass μ. These are all known to be perturbatively unstable except at the recently explored chiral point μl = 1. However we show herein that for every value of μl ≠ 3 there are two other (potentially stable) vacuum solutions given by SL(2,Bbb R) × U(1)-invariant warped AdS3 geometries, with a timelike or spacelike U(1) isometry. Critical behavior occurs at μl = 3, where the warping transitions from a stretching to a squashing, and there are a pair of warped solutions with a null U(1) isometry. For μl > 3, there are known warped black hole solutions which are asymptotic to warped AdS3. We show that these black holes are discrete quotients of warped AdS3 just as BTZ black holes are discrete quotients of ordinary AdS3. Moreover new solutions of this type, relevant to any theory with warped AdS3 solutions, are exhibited. Finally we note that the black hole thermodynamics is consistent with the hypothesis that, for μl > 3, the warped AdS3 ground state of TMG is holographically dual to a 2D boundary CFT with central charges c_R-formula and c_L-formula.

  18. Warped AdS3 black holes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Wei; Anninos, Dionysios; Li, Wei; Padi, Megha; Strominger, Andrew

    2009-03-01

    Three dimensional topologically massive gravity (TMG) with a negative cosmological constant -ell-2 and positive Newton constant G admits an AdS3 vacuum solution for any value of the graviton mass μ. These are all known to be perturbatively unstable except at the recently explored chiral point μell = 1. However we show herein that for every value of μell ≠ 3 there are two other (potentially stable) vacuum solutions given by SL(2,Bbb R) × U(1)-invariant warped AdS3 geometries, with a timelike or spacelike U(1) isometry. Critical behavior occurs at μell = 3, where the warping transitions from a stretching to a squashing, and there are a pair of warped solutions with a null U(1) isometry. For μell > 3, there are known warped black hole solutions which are asymptotic to warped AdS3. We show that these black holes are discrete quotients of warped AdS3 just as BTZ black holes are discrete quotients of ordinary AdS3. Moreover new solutions of this type, relevant to any theory with warped AdS3 solutions, are exhibited. Finally we note that the black hole thermodynamics is consistent with the hypothesis that, for μell > 3, the warped AdS3 ground state of TMG is holographically dual to a 2D boundary CFT with central charges c_R-formula and c_L-formula.

  19. A strategic analysis study-based approach to integrated risk assessment: Occupational health risks from environmental restoration and waste management activities at Hanford

    SciTech Connect

    Mahaffey, J.A.; Doctor, P.G.; Buschbom, R.L.; Glantz, C.S.; Daling, P.M.; Sever, L.E.; Vargo, G.J. Jr.; Strachan, D.M.; Pajunen, A.L.; Hoyt, R.C.; Ludowise, J.D.

    1993-06-01

    The goal of environmental restoration and waste management activities is to reduce public health risks or to delay risks to the future when new technology will be available for improved cleanup solutions. Actions to remediate the wastes on the Hanford Site will entail risks to workers, the public, and the environment that do not currently exist. In some circumstances, remediation activities will create new exposure pathways that are not present without cleanup activities. In addition, cleanup actions will redistribute existing health risks over time and space, and will likely shift health risks to cleanup workers in the short term. This report describes an approach to occupational risk assessment based on the Hanford Strategic Analysis Study and illustrates the approach by comparing worker risks for two options for remediation of N/K fuels, a subcategory of unprocessed irradiated fuels at Hanford.

  20. Comparison of approaches for incorporating new information into existing risk prediction models.

    PubMed

    Grill, Sonja; Ankerst, Donna P; Gail, Mitchell H; Chatterjee, Nilanjan; Pfeiffer, Ruth M

    2017-03-30

    We compare the calibration and variability of risk prediction models that were estimated using various approaches for combining information on new predictors, termed 'markers', with parameter information available for other variables from an earlier model, which was estimated from a large data source. We assess the performance of risk prediction models updated based on likelihood ratio (LR) approaches that incorporate dependence between new and old risk factors as well as approaches that assume independence ('naive Bayes' methods). We study the impact of estimating the LR by (i) fitting a single model to cases and non-cases when the distribution of the new markers is in the exponential family or (ii) fitting separate models to cases and non-cases. We also evaluate a new constrained maximum likelihood method. We study updating the risk prediction model when the new data arise from a cohort and extend available methods to accommodate updating when the new data source is a case-control study. To create realistic correlations between predictors, we also based simulations on real data on response to antiviral therapy for hepatitis C. From these studies, we recommend the LR method fit using a single model or constrained maximum likelihood. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. New screening approach for risk assessment of pesticides in ambient air

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yusà, Vicent; Coscollà, Clara; Millet, Maurice

    2014-10-01

    We present a novel screening approach for inhalation risk assessment of currently used pesticides (CUPs) in ambient air, based on the measurements of pesticide levels in the inhalable fraction of the particulate matter (PM10). Total concentrations in ambient air (gas + particle phases) were estimated using a theoretical model of distribution of semi-volatile organic compounds between the gas and the particulate phase based on the octanol-air partition (Koa) of each pesticide. The proposed approach was used in a pilot study conducted in a rural station in Valencia (Spain) from April through to October 2010. Twenty out of 82 analysed pesticides were detected in average concentrations ranging from 1.63 to 117.01 pg m-3. For adults, children and infants the estimated chronic inhalation risk, expressed as Hazard Quotient (HQ) was <1 for all pesticides. Likewise, the cumulative exposure for detected organophosphorus, pyrethroids and carbamates pesticides, was estimated using as metrics the Hazard Index (HI), which was less than 1 for the three families of pesticides assessed. The cancer risk estimated for the detected pesticides classified as Likely or Possible carcinogens was less than 1.15E-7 for infants. In our opinion, the screening approach proposed could be used in the monitoring and risk assessment of pesticides in ambient air.

  2. Risk assessment of groundwater contamination: a multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation approach based on DRASTIC model.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Qiuwen; Yang, Xiaohong; Zhang, Yan; Zhong, Ming

    2013-01-01

    Groundwater contamination is a serious threat to water supply. Risk assessment of groundwater contamination is an effective way to protect the safety of groundwater resource. Groundwater is a complex and fuzzy system with many uncertainties, which is impacted by different geological and hydrological factors. In order to deal with the uncertainty in the risk assessment of groundwater contamination, we propose an approach with analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation integrated together. Firstly, the risk factors of groundwater contamination are identified by the sources-pathway-receptor-consequence method, and a corresponding index system of risk assessment based on DRASTIC model is established. Due to the complexity in the process of transitions between the possible pollution risks and the uncertainties of factors, the method of analysis hierarchy process is applied to determine the weights of each factor, and the fuzzy sets theory is adopted to calculate the membership degrees of each factor. Finally, a case study is presented to illustrate and test this methodology. It is concluded that the proposed approach integrates the advantages of both analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, which provides a more flexible and reliable way to deal with the linguistic uncertainty and mechanism uncertainty in groundwater contamination without losing important information.

  3. Intersectionality and risk for ischemic heart disease in Sweden: Categorical and anti-categorical approaches.

    PubMed

    Wemrell, Maria; Mulinari, Shai; Merlo, Juan

    2017-03-01

    Intersectionality theory can contribute to epidemiology and public health by furthering understanding of power dynamics driving production of health disparities, and increasing knowledge about heterogeneities within, and overlap between, social categories. Drawing on McCall, we relate the first of these potential contributions to categorical intersectionality and the second to anti-categorical intersectionality. Both approaches are used in study of risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD), based on register data on 3.6 million adults residing in Sweden by 2010, followed for three years. Categorical intersectionality is here coupled with between-group differences in average risk calculation, as we use intersectional categorizations while estimating odds ratios through logistic regressions. The anti-categorical approach is operationalized through measurement of discriminatory accuracy (DA), i.e., capacity to accurately categorize individuals with or without a certain outcome, through computation of the area under the curve (AUC). Our results show substantial differences in average risk between intersectional groupings. The DA of social categorizations is found to be low, however, due to outcome variability within and overlap between categories. We argue that measures of DA should be used for proper interpretation of differences in average risk between social (or any other) categories. Tension between average between-group risk and the DA of categorizations, which can be related to categorical and anti-categorical intersectional analyses, should be made explicit and discussed to a larger degree in epidemiology and public health.

  4. A Risk-Based Ecohydrological Approach to Assessing Environmental Flow Regimes.

    PubMed

    Mcgregor, Glenn B; Marshall, Jonathan C; Lobegeiger, Jaye S; Holloway, Dean; Menke, Norbert; Coysh, Julie

    2017-03-27

    For several decades there has been recognition that water resource development alters river flow regimes and impacts ecosystem values. Determining strategies to protect or restore flow regimes to achieve ecological outcomes is a focus of water policy and legislation in many parts of the world. However, consideration of existing environmental flow assessment approaches for application in Queensland identified deficiencies precluding their adoption. Firstly, in managing flows and using ecosystem condition as an indicator of effectiveness, many approaches ignore the fact that river ecosystems are subjected to threatening processes other than flow regime alteration. Secondly, many focus on providing flows for responses without considering how often they are necessary to sustain ecological values in the long-term. Finally, few consider requirements at spatial-scales relevant to the desired outcomes, with frequent focus on individual places rather than the regions supporting sustainability. Consequently, we developed a risk-based ecohydrological approach that identifies ecosystem values linked to desired ecological outcomes, is sensitive to flow alteration and uses indicators of broader ecosystem requirements. Monitoring and research is undertaken to quantify flow-dependencies and ecological modelling is used to quantify flow-related ecological responses over an historical flow period. The relative risk from different flow management scenarios can be evaluated at relevant spatial-scales. This overcomes the deficiencies identified above and provides a robust and useful foundation upon which to build the information needed to support water planning decisions. Application of the risk assessment approach is illustrated here by two case studies.

  5. Standards of care for high-risk prenatal clients: the community nurse case management approach.

    PubMed

    Mawn, B; Bradley, J

    1993-06-01

    The New Mexico Families FIRST project seeks to reduce maternal and infant morbidity and mortality through a nursing case management approach. The responsibilities of this community nurse include outreach, education, and care coordination of Medicaid-eligible high-risk pregnant women and their children. The standards of care for these families are derived from a screening tool that identifies medical, demographic, environmental, and psychosocial risks. Although evaluation of the nurse role and the tools used to identify and care for these women and children has not been completed, sharing the developmental stages of the process should facilitate similar endeavors.

  6. Integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haer, Toon; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    Between 1998 and 2009, Europe suffered over 213 major damaging floods, causing 1126 deaths, displacing around half a million people. In this period, floods caused at least 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard faced in Europe. In many low-lying areas, the main strategy to cope with floods is to reduce the risk of the hazard through flood defence structures, like dikes and levees. However, it is suggested that part of the responsibility for flood protection needs to shift to households and businesses in areas at risk, and that governments and insurers can effectively stimulate the implementation of individual protective measures. However, adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction and the interaction between the government, insurers, and individuals has hardly been studied in large-scale flood risk assessments. In this study, an European Agent-Based Model is developed including agent representatives for the administrative stakeholders of European Member states, insurers and reinsurers markets, and individuals following complex behaviour models. The Agent-Based Modelling approach allows for an in-depth analysis of the interaction between heterogeneous autonomous agents and the resulting (non-)adaptive behaviour. Existing flood damage models are part of the European Agent-Based Model to allow for a dynamic response of both the agents and the environment to changing flood risk and protective efforts. By following an Agent-Based Modelling approach this study is a first contribution to overcome the limitations of traditional large-scale flood risk models in which the influence of individual adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction is often lacking.

  7. Preventable risk factors for noncommunicable diseases in rural Indonesia: prevalence study using WHO STEPS approach.

    PubMed Central

    Ng, Nawi; Stenlund, Hans; Bonita, Ruth; Hakimi, Mohammad; Wall, Stig; Weinehall, Lars

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To gain a better understanding of the health transition in Indonesia, we sought to describe the prevalence and distribution of risk factors for noncommunicable diseases and to identify the risk-factor burden among a rural population and an urban population. METHODS: Using the protocol of the WHO STEPwise approach to Surveillance (STEPS), risk factors for noncommunicable diseases were determined for 1502 men and 1461 women aged 15-74 years at the Purworejo Demographic Surveillance Site in 2001. FINDINGS: Smoking prevalence was high among men (913/1539; weighted percentage=53.9.%) in both rural and urban populations; it was almost non-existent among women. A higher proportion of the urban population and the richest quintile of the rural population had high blood pressure and were classified as being overweight or obese when compared with the poorest quintile of the rural population. Those classified as being in the richest quintile who lived in the rural area were 1.5 times more likely to have raised blood pressure and 8 times more likely to be overweight than those classified as being in the poorest quintile and living in the rural area. Clustering of risk factors was higher among those classified as being in the richest quintile of those living in the rural area compared with those classified as being in the poorest quintile; and the risks of clustering were just 20-30% lower compared with the urban population. CONCLUSION: Both the rural and urban populations in Purworejo face an unequally distributed burden of risk factors for noncommunicable diseases. The burden among the most well-off group in the rural area has already reached a level similar to that found in the urban area. The implementation of the WHO STEPS approach was feasible, and it provides a comprehensive picture of the burden of risk factors, allowing appropriate health interventions to be implemented to address health inequities. PMID:16628304

  8. Assessment of Yellow Fever Epidemic Risk: An Original Multi-criteria Modeling Approach

    PubMed Central

    Briand, Sylvie; Beresniak, Ariel; Nguyen, Tim; Yonli, Tajoua; Duru, Gerard; Kambire, Chantal; Perea, William

    2009-01-01

    Background Yellow fever (YF) virtually disappeared in francophone West African countries as a result of YF mass vaccination campaigns carried out between 1940 and 1953. However, because of the failure to continue mass vaccination campaigns, a resurgence of the deadly disease in many African countries began in the early 1980s. We developed an original modeling approach to assess YF epidemic risk (vulnerability) and to prioritize the populations to be vaccinated. Methods and Findings We chose a two-step assessment of vulnerability at district level consisting of a quantitative and qualitative assessment per country. Quantitative assessment starts with data collection on six risk factors: five risk factors associated with “exposure” to virus/vector and one with “susceptibility” of a district to YF epidemics. The multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) modeling method was specifically adapted to reduce the five exposure variables to one aggregated exposure indicator. Health districts were then projected onto a two-dimensional graph to define different levels of vulnerability. Districts are presented on risk maps for qualitative analysis in consensus groups, allowing the addition of factors, such as population migrations or vector density, that could not be included in MCA. The example of rural districts in Burkina Faso show five distinct clusters of risk profiles. Based on this assessment, 32 of 55 districts comprising over 7 million people were prioritized for preventive vaccination campaigns. Conclusion This assessment of yellow fever epidemic risk at the district level includes MCA modeling and consensus group modification. MCA provides a standardized way to reduce complexity. It supports an informed public health decision-making process that empowers local stakeholders through the consensus group. This original approach can be applied to any disease with documented risk factors. PMID:19597548

  9. Comparative risk assessment of carcinogens in alcoholic beverages using the margin of exposure approach.

    PubMed

    Lachenmeier, Dirk W; Przybylski, Maria C; Rehm, Jürgen

    2012-09-15

    Alcoholic beverages have been classified as carcinogenic to humans. As alcoholic beverages are multicomponent mixtures containing several carcinogenic compounds, a quantitative approach is necessary to compare the risks. Fifteen known and suspected human carcinogens (acetaldehyde, acrylamide, aflatoxins, arsenic, benzene, cadmium, ethanol, ethyl carbamate, formaldehyde, furan, lead, 4-methylimidazole, N-nitrosodimethylamine, ochratoxin A and safrole) occurring in alcoholic beverages were identified based on monograph reviews by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The margin of exposure (MOE) approach was used for comparative risk assessment. MOE compares a toxicological threshold with the exposure. MOEs above 10,000 are judged as low priority for risk management action. MOEs were calculated for different drinking scenarios (low risk and heavy drinking) and different levels of contamination for four beverage groups (beer, wine, spirits and unrecorded alcohol). The lowest MOEs were found for ethanol (3.1 for low risk and 0.8 for heavy drinking). Inorganic lead and arsenic have average MOEs between 10 and 300, followed by acetaldehyde, cadmium and ethyl carbamate between 1,000 and 10,000. All other compounds had average MOEs above 10,000 independent of beverage type. Ethanol was identified as the most important carcinogen in alcoholic beverages, with clear dose response. Some other compounds (lead, arsenic, ethyl carbamate, acetaldehyde) may pose risks below thresholds normally tolerated for food contaminants, but from a cost-effectiveness point of view, the focus should be on reducing alcohol consumption in general rather than on mitigative measures for some contaminants that contribute only to a limited extent (if at all) to the total health risk.

  10. Cardiovascular risk prediction: a comparative study of Framingham and quantum neural network based approach

    PubMed Central

    Narain, Renu; Saxena, Sanjai; Goyal, Achal Kumar

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Currently cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the main cause of death worldwide. Disease risk estimates can be used as prognostic information and support for treating CVDs. The commonly used Framingham risk score (FRS) for CVD prediction is outdated for the modern population, so FRS may not be accurate enough. In this paper, a novel CVD prediction system based on machine learning is proposed. Methods This study has been conducted with the data of 689 patients showing symptoms of CVD. Furthermore, the dataset of 5,209 CVD patients of the famous Framingham study has been used for validation purposes. Each patient’s parameters have been analyzed by physicians in order to make a diagnosis. The proposed system uses the quantum neural network for machine learning. This system learns and recognizes the pattern of CVD. The proposed system has been experimentally evaluated and compared with FRS. Results During testing, patients’ data in combination with the doctors’ diagnosis (predictions) are used for evaluation and validation. The proposed system achieved 98.57% accuracy in predicting the CVD risk. The CVD risk predictions by the proposed system, using the dataset of the Framingham study, confirmed the potential risk of death, deaths which actually occurred and had been recorded as due to myocardial infarction and coronary heart disease in the dataset of the Framingham study. The accuracy of the proposed system is significantly higher than FRS and other existing approaches. Conclusion The proposed system will serve as an excellent tool for a medical practitioner in predicting the risk of CVD. This system will be serving as an aid to medical practitioners for planning better medication and treatment strategies. An early diagnosis may be effectively made by using this system. An overall accuracy of 98.57% has been achieved in predicting the risk level. The accuracy is considerably higher compared to the other existing approaches. Thus, this system must be used

  11. A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The assessment of climate change related risks is notoriously difficult due to the complex and uncertain combinations of hazardous events that might happen, the multiplicity of physical processes involved, the continuous changes and interactions of environmental and socio-economic systems. One important challenge lies in predicting and modelling cascades of natural and man -made hazard events which can be triggered by climate change, encompassing different spatial and temporal scales. Another regard the potentially difficult integration of environmental, social and economic disciplines in the multi-risk concept. Finally, the effective interaction between scientists and stakeholders is essential to ensure that multi-risk knowledge is translated into efficient adaptation and management strategies. The assessment is even more complex at the scale of deltaic systems which are particularly vulnerable to global environmental changes, due to the fragile equilibrium between the presence of valuable natural ecosystems and relevant economic activities. Improving our capacity to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surges, reduction in sediment load, local subsidence, saltwater intrusion) is therefore essential to identify timely opportunities for adaptation. A holistic multi-risk approach is here proposed to integrate terminology, metrics and methodologies from different research fields (i.e. environmental, social and economic sciences) thus creating shared knowledge areas to advance multi risk assessment and management in delta regions. A first testing of the approach, including the application of Bayesian network analysis for the assessment of impacts of climate change on key natural systems (e.g. wetlands, protected areas, beaches) and socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture, tourism), is applied in the Po river delta in Northern Italy. The approach is based on a bottom-up process involving local stakeholders early in different

  12. Age-Infusion Approach to Derive Injury Risk Curves for Dummies from Human Cadaver Tests

    PubMed Central

    Yoganandan, Narayan; Banerjee, Anjishnu; Pintar, Frank A.

    2015-01-01

    Injury criteria and risk curves are needed for anthropomorphic test devices (dummies) to assess injuries for improving human safety. The present state of knowledge is based on using injury outcomes and biomechanical metrics from post-mortem human subject (PMHS) and mechanical records from dummy tests. Data from these models are combined to develop dummy injury assessment risk curves (IARCs)/dummy injury assessment risk values (IARVs). This simple substitution approach involves duplicating dummy metrics for PMHS tested under similar conditions and pairing with PMHS injury outcomes. It does not directly account for the age of each specimen tested in the PMHS group. Current substitution methods for injury risk assessments use age as a covariate and dummy metrics (e.g., accelerations) are not modified so that age can be directly included in the model. The age-infusion methodology presented in this perspective article accommodates for an annual rate factor that modifies the dummy injury risk assessment responses to account for the age of the PMHS that the injury data were based on. The annual rate factor is determined using human injury risk curves. The dummy metrics are modulated based on individual PMHS age and rate factor, thus “infusing” age into the dummy data. Using PMHS injuries and accelerations from side-impact experiments, matched-pair dummy tests, and logistic regression techniques, the methodology demonstrates the process of age-infusion to derive the IARCs and IARVs. PMID:26697422

  13. Age-Infusion Approach to Derive Injury Risk Curves for Dummies from Human Cadaver Tests.

    PubMed

    Yoganandan, Narayan; Banerjee, Anjishnu; Pintar, Frank A

    2015-01-01

    Injury criteria and risk curves are needed for anthropomorphic test devices (dummies) to assess injuries for improving human safety. The present state of knowledge is based on using injury outcomes and biomechanical metrics from post-mortem human subject (PMHS) and mechanical records from dummy tests. Data from these models are combined to develop dummy injury assessment risk curves (IARCs)/dummy injury assessment risk values (IARVs). This simple substitution approach involves duplicating dummy metrics for PMHS tested under similar conditions and pairing with PMHS injury outcomes. It does not directly account for the age of each specimen tested in the PMHS group. Current substitution methods for injury risk assessments use age as a covariate and dummy metrics (e.g., accelerations) are not modified so that age can be directly included in the model. The age-infusion methodology presented in this perspective article accommodates for an annual rate factor that modifies the dummy injury risk assessment responses to account for the age of the PMHS that the injury data were based on. The annual rate factor is determined using human injury risk curves. The dummy metrics are modulated based on individual PMHS age and rate factor, thus "infusing" age into the dummy data. Using PMHS injuries and accelerations from side-impact experiments, matched-pair dummy tests, and logistic regression techniques, the methodology demonstrates the process of age-infusion to derive the IARCs and IARVs.

  14. Human health and performance risk management—an approach for exploration missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, Jeffrey R.; Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Richard, Elizabeth E.

    During long duration exploration missions, maintaining human health and performance will be essential to enabling success. Therefore, NASA has developed standards through the Health and Medical Technical Authority to insure human health and performance during exploration. Human health standards are the first step in defining acceptable risk for human space flight and take into consideration both short-term (mission) and long-term (lifetime) health risk. These standards are based on the best medical evidence from terrestrial standards; analog spaceflight environments; and spaceflight experience. Standards drive the development of focused program requirements to mitigate risks associated with specific missions. Program requirements include vehicle design as well as health care systems including medical, environmental and countermeasures. NASA has also developed the risk mitigation analysis tool (RMAT), a process to evaluate the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. The RMAT facilitates documentation and analysis of the effectiveness of mitigation strategies, enables NASA to baseline a risk mitigation approach based on the best evidence, and provides the traceability from research and technology development projects to specific mission deliverables.

  15. Reducing Design Risk Using Robust Design Methods: A Dual Response Surface Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Unal, Resit; Yeniay, Ozgur; Lepsch, Roger A. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    Space transportation system conceptual design is a multidisciplinary process containing considerable element of risk. Risk here is defined as the variability in the estimated (output) performance characteristic of interest resulting from the uncertainties in the values of several disciplinary design and/or operational parameters. Uncertainties from one discipline (and/or subsystem) may propagate to another, through linking parameters and the final system output may have a significant accumulation of risk. This variability can result in significant deviations from the expected performance. Therefore, an estimate of variability (which is called design risk in this study) together with the expected performance characteristic value (e.g. mean empty weight) is necessary for multidisciplinary optimization for a robust design. Robust design in this study is defined as a solution that minimizes variability subject to a constraint on mean performance characteristics. Even though multidisciplinary design optimization has gained wide attention and applications, the treatment of uncertainties to quantify and analyze design risk has received little attention. This research effort explores the dual response surface approach to quantify variability (risk) in critical performance characteristics (such as weight) during conceptual design.

  16. A New Approach to Ecological Risk Assessment: Simulating Effects of Global Warming on Complex Ecological Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Yun; Brose, Ulrich; Kastenberg, William; Martinez, Neo D.

    The field of Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) has been under development since the 1970s. Early ERA borrowed basic concepts from human health risk assessment (HRA) methodology [NAS 1983]. However, because of the nature of an ecosystem, there is a fundamental difference between HRA and ERA. In an HRA, the only receptor is a single human being and the concerned endpoints are always associated with human health issues, such as the risk of cancer. In ERA, however, entire populations, communities and ecosystems are at risk, and ERA must rigorously assess these more complex and larger scaled concerns. Many investigators have attempted to develop a new paradigm for ERA that can deal with this intrinsic distinction. Currently, a six-step framework is now widely used by the U.S. EPA and its contractors. This new paradigm is characterized by: (1) receptor identification, (2) hazard identification, (3) endpoint identification, (4) exposure assessment, (5) doseresponse assessment and (6) risk characterization [Lipton et al. 1993, Suter 1993]. The six-step framework identifies receptors at risk, possible hazards related to certain receptors, and chooses appropriate assessment and measurement endpoints [Suter 1990]. While the additional receptor and endpoint identifications improve on the traditional framework, single-species laboratory toxicity tests typically estimate ecological responses simply by predicting an environmental concentration associated with a certain stressor divided by the no-observed effect concentration (NOEC) for that stressor. This "Hazard Quotient" (HQ) approach ignores interactions between species that are critical to the functioning of communities and ecosystems.

  17. Can a Risk Factor Based Approach Safely Reduce Screening for Retinopathy of Prematurity?

    PubMed Central

    Friddle, K. M.; Yoder, B. A.; Henry, E.

    2017-01-01

    Objective. Current American retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) screening guidelines is imprecise for infants ≥ 30 weeks with birth weights between 1500 and 2000 g. Our objective was to evaluate a risk factor based approach for screening premature infants at low risk for severe ROP. Study Design. We performed a 13-year review from Intermountain Health Care (IHC) data. All neonates born at ≤32 weeks were reviewed to determine ROP screening and/or development of severe ROP. Severe ROP was defined by stage ≥ 3 or need for laser therapy. Regression analysis was used to identify significant risk factors for severe ROP. Results. We identified 4607 neonates ≤ 32 weeks gestation. Following exclusion for death, with no retinal exam or incomplete data, 2791 (61%) were included in the study. Overall, severe ROP occurred in 260 (9.3%), but only 11/1601 ≥ 29 weeks (0.7%). All infants with severe ROP ≥ 29 weeks had at least 2 identified ROP risk factors. Implementation of this risk based screening strategy to the IHC population over the timeline of this study would have eliminated screening in 21% (343/1601) of the screened population. Conclusions. Limiting ROP screening for infants ≥ 29 and ≤ 32 weeks to only those with clinical risk factors could significantly reduce screening exams while identifying all infants with severe ROP. PMID:28163726

  18. Euclidean and Noetherian entropies in AdS space

    SciTech Connect

    Dutta, Suvankar; Gopakumar, Rajesh

    2006-08-15

    We examine the Euclidean action approach, as well as that of Wald, to the entropy of black holes in asymptotically AdS spaces. From the point of view of holography these two approaches are somewhat complementary in spirit and it is not obvious why they should give the same answer in the presence of arbitrary higher derivative gravity corrections. For the case of the AdS{sub 5} Schwarzschild black hole, we explicitly study the leading correction to the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy in the presence of a variety of higher derivative corrections studied in the literature, including the Type IIB R{sup 4} term. We find a nontrivial agreement between the two approaches in every case. Finally, we give a general way of understanding the equivalence of these two approaches.

  19. Segmented strings in AdS 3

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Callebaut, Nele; Gubser, Steven S.; Samberg, Andreas; Toldo, Chiara

    2015-11-01

    We study segmented strings in flat space and in AdS 3. In flat space, these well known classical motions describe strings which at any instant of time are piecewise linear. In AdS 3, the worldsheet is composed of faces each of which is a region bounded by null geodesics in an AdS 2 subspace of AdS 3. The time evolution can be described by specifying the null geodesic motion of kinks in the string at which two segments are joined. The outcome of collisions of kinks on the worldsheet can be worked out essentially using considerations of causality. We study several examples of closed segmented strings in AdS 3 and find an unexpected quasi-periodic behavior. We also work out a WKB analysis of quantum states of yo-yo strings in AdS 5 and find a logarithmic term reminiscent of the logarithmic twist of string states on the leading Regge trajectory.

  20. Risk Assessment or Assessment of Risk? Developing an Evidence-Based Approach for Primary Producers of Leafy Vegetables To Assess and Manage Microbial Risks.

    PubMed

    Monaghan, J M; Augustin, J C; Bassett, J; Betts, R; Pourkomailian, B; Zwietering, M H

    2017-03-28

    Over the last 10 years, some high-profile foodborne illness outbreaks have been linked to the consumption of leafy greens. Growers are required to complete microbiological risk assessments (RAs) for the production of leafy crops supplied either to retail or for further processing. These RAs are based primarily on qualitative judgements of hazard and risks at various stages in the production process but lack many of the steps defined for quantitative microbiological RAs by the Codex Alimentarius Commission. This article is based on the discussions of an industry expert group and proposes a grower RA approach based on a structured qualitative assessment, which requires all decisions to be based on evidence and a framework for describing the decision process that can be challenged and defended within the supply chain. In addition, this article highlights the need for evidence to be more easily available and accessible to primary producers and identifies the need to develop hygiene criteria to aid validation of proposed interventions.

  1. Using Computational Approaches to Improve Risk-Stratified Patient Management: Rationale and Methods

    PubMed Central

    Stone, Bryan L; Sakaguchi, Farrant; Sheng, Xiaoming; Murtaugh, Maureen A

    2015-01-01

    Background Chronic diseases affect 52% of Americans and consume 86% of health care costs. A small portion of patients consume most health care resources and costs. More intensive patient management strategies, such as case management, are usually more effective at improving health outcomes, but are also more expensive. To use limited resources efficiently, risk stratification is commonly used in managing patients with chronic diseases, such as asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, and heart disease. Patients are stratified based on predicted risk with patients at higher risk given more intensive care. The current risk-stratified patient management approach has 3 limitations resulting in many patients not receiving the most appropriate care, unnecessarily increased costs, and suboptimal health outcomes. First, using predictive models for health outcomes and costs is currently the best method for forecasting individual patient’s risk. Yet, accuracy of predictive models remains poor causing many patients to be misstratified. If an existing model were used to identify candidate patients for case management, enrollment would miss more than half of those who would benefit most, but include others unlikely to benefit, wasting limited resources. Existing models have been developed under the assumption that patient characteristics primarily influence outcomes and costs, leaving physician characteristics out of the models. In reality, both characteristics have an impact. Second, existing models usually give neither an explanation why a particular patient is predicted to be at high risk nor suggestions on interventions tailored to the patient’s specific case. As a result, many high-risk patients miss some suitable interventions. Third, thresholds for risk strata are suboptimal and determined heuristically with no quality guarantee. Objective The purpose of this study is to improve risk-stratified patient management so that more patients will receive the

  2. A theoretical approach to assess microbial risks due to failures in drinking water systems.

    PubMed

    Westrell, T; Bergstedt, O; Stenström, T A; Ashbolt, N J

    2003-06-01

    A failure in treatment or in the distribution network of a surface water-works could have serious consequences due to the variable raw water quality in combination with an extended distribution. The aim of this study was to examine the theoretical impact of incidents in the drinking water system on the annual risk of infection in a population served by a large water treatment plant in Sweden. Reported incidents in the system were examined and a microbial risk assessment that included three pathogens, Cryptosporidium parvum, rotavirus and Campylobacter jejuni, was performed. The main risk incidents in water treatment were associated with sub-optimal particle removal or disinfection malfunction. Incidents in the distribution network included cross-connections and microbial pollution of reservoirs and local networks. The majority of the annual infections were likely to be due to pathogens passing treatment during normal operation and not due to failures, thus adding to the endemic rate. Among the model organisms, rotavirus caused the largest number of infections. Decentralised water treatment with membranes was also considered in which failures upstream fine-pored membranes would have little impact as long as the membranes were kept intact.

  3. Coset construction of AdS particle dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heinze, Martin; Jorjadze, George; Megrelidze, Luka

    2017-01-01

    We analyze the dynamics of the AdSN+1 particle realized on the coset SO(2, N)/SO (1,N). Hamiltonian reduction provides the physical phase space in terms of the coadjoint orbit obtained by boosting a timelike element of 𝔰𝔬(2, N). We show equivalence of this approach to geometric quantization and to the SO(N) covariant oscillator description, for which the boost generators entail a complicated operator ordering. As an alternative scheme, we introduce dual oscillator variables and derive their algebra at the classical and the quantum levels. This simplifies the calculations of the commutators for the boost generators and leads to unitary irreducible representations of 𝔰𝔬(2, N) for all admissible values of the mass parameter. We furthermore discuss an SO(N) covariant supersymmetric extension of the oscillator quantization, with its realization for superparticles in AdS2 and AdS3 given by recent works.

  4. A multidisciplinary team care approach improves outcomes in high-risk pediatric neuroblastoma patients.

    PubMed

    Chang, Hsiu-Hao; Liu, Yen-Lin; Lu, Meng-Yao; Jou, Shiann-Tarng; Yang, Yung-Li; Lin, Dong-Tsamn; Lin, Kai-Hsin; Tzen, Kai-Yuan; Yen, Ruoh-Fang; Lu, Ching-Chu; Liu, Chia-Ju; Peng, Steven Shinn-Forng; Jeng, Yung-Ming; Huang, Shiu-Feng; Lee, Hsinyu; Juan, Hsueh-Fen; Huang, Min-Chuan; Liao, Yung-Feng; Lee, Ya-Ling; Hsu, Wen-Ming

    2017-01-17

    We assessed the impact of a multidisciplinary team care program on treatment outcomes in neuroblastoma patients. Newly diagnosed neuroblastoma patients received treatment under the Taiwan Pediatric Oncology Group (TPOG) N2002 protocol at the National Taiwan University Hospital beginning in 2002. A multidisciplinary team care approach that included nurse-led case management for patients treated under this protocol began in January 2010. Fifty-eight neuroblastoma patients, including 29 treated between 2002 and 2009 (Group 1) and 29 treated between 2010 and 2014 (Group 2), were enrolled in the study. The 5-year overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) rates for all 58 patients were 59% and 54.7%, respectively. Group 2 patients, who were treated after implementation of the multidisciplinary team care program, had better 3-year EFS (P = 0.046), but not OS (P = 0.16), rates than Group 1 patients. In a multivariate analysis, implementation of the multidisciplinary team approach was the only significant independent prognostic factor for neuroblastoma patients. In further subgroup analyses, the multidisciplinary team approach improved EFS, but not OS, in patients with stage 4 disease, those in the high-risk group, and those with non-MYCN amplified tumors. These data indicate a multidisciplinary team care approach improved survival outcomes in high-risk neuroblastoma patients. However, further investigation will be required to evaluate the long-term effects of this approach over longer follow-up periods.

  5. Xplicit, a novel approach in probabilistic spatiotemporally explicit exposure and risk assessment for plant protection products.

    PubMed

    Schad, Thorsten; Schulz, Ralf

    2011-10-01

    The quantification of risk (the likelihood and extent of adverse effects) is a prerequisite in regulatory decision making for plant protection products and is the goal of the Xplicit project. In its present development stage, realism is increased in the exposure assessment (EA), first by using real-world data on, e.g., landscape factors affecting exposure, and second, by taking the variability of key factors into account. Spatial and temporal variability is explicitly addressed. Scale dependencies are taken into account, which allows for risk quantification at different scales, for example, at landscape scale, an overall picture of the potential exposure of nontarget organisms can be derived (e.g., for all off-crop habitats in a given landscape); at local scale, exposure might be relevant to assess recovery and recolonization potential; intermediate scales might best refer to population level and hence might be relevant for risk management decisions (e.g., individual off-crop habitats). The Xplicit approach is designed to comply with a central paradigm of probabilistic approaches, namely, that each individual case that is derived from the variability functions employed should represent a potential real-world case. This is mainly achieved by operating in a spatiotemporally explicit fashion. Landscape factors affecting the local exposure of habitats of nontarget species (i.e., receptors) are derived from geodatabases. Variability in time is resolved by operating at discrete time steps, with the probability of events (e.g., application) or conditions (e.g., wind conditions) defined in probability density functions (PDFs). The propagation of variability of parameters into variability of exposure and risk is done using a Monte Carlo approach. Among the outcomes are expectancy values on the realistic worst-case exposure (predicted environmental concentration [PEC]), the probability p that the PEC exceeds the ecologically acceptable concentration (EAC) for a given

  6. Raynaud’s phenomenon and digital ischemia: a practical approach to risk stratification, diagnosis and management

    PubMed Central

    McMahan, Zsuzsanna H.; Wigley, Fredrick M.

    2015-01-01

    Digital ischemia is a painful and often disfiguring event. Such an ischemic event often leads to tissue loss and can significantly affect the patient’s quality of life. Digital ischemia can be secondary to a vasculopathy, vasculitis, embolic disease, trauma, or extrinsic vascular compression. It is an especially serious complication in patients with scleroderma. Risk stratification of patients with scleroderma at risk for digital ischemia is now possible with clinical assessment and autoantibody profiles. Because there are a variety of conditions that lead to digital ischemia, it is important to understand the pathophysiology underlying each ischemic presentation in order to target therapy appropriately. Significant progress has been made in the last two decades in defining the pathophysiological processes leading to digital ischemia in rheumatic diseases. In this article we review the risk stratification, diagnosis, and management of patients with digital ischemia and provide a practical approach to therapy, particularly in scleroderma. PMID:26523153

  7. Approach to Dyslipidemia, Lipodystrophy, and Cardiovascular Risk in Patients with HIV Infection

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    There is a significant prevalence (20%–80% depending on the population and the study) of lipid disorders and other cardiovascular risk factors in people living with HIV infection. This review focuses on HIV and HIV treatment–associated metabolic and cardiovascular concerns, including dyslipidemias, lipodystrophy syndromes, endothelial dysfunctions, and associated metabolic events such as insulin resistance. Emerging hypotheses of the underlying pathophysiology of these issues, with impact on selection of specific antiretroviral treatment (ART) strategies, therapy, and preventive approaches to decreasing cardiovascular risk and other problems associated with these syndromes are discussed. Screening for cardiovascular risk as part of the decision of starting antiretroviral therapy, and during care of patients with HIV regardless of ART therapy status, is suggested with particular areas of focus. Statins, other hyperlipidemic therapies, treatment for specific problems arising due to lipodystrophy, and implications on ART selection to avoid drug interactions and adverse effects are also discussed. PMID:21181310

  8. Approach to dyslipidemia, lipodystrophy, and cardiovascular risk in patients with HIV infection.

    PubMed

    Troll, J Gregory

    2011-02-01

    There is a significant prevalence (20%-80% depending on the population and the study) of lipid disorders and other cardiovascular risk factors in people living with HIV infection. This review focuses on HIV and HIV treatment-associated metabolic and cardiovascular concerns, including dyslipidemias, lipodystrophy syndromes, endothelial dysfunctions, and associated metabolic events such as insulin resistance. Emerging hypotheses of the underlying pathophysiology of these issues, with impact on selection of specific antiretroviral treatment (ART) strategies, therapy, and preventive approaches to decreasing cardiovascular risk and other problems associated with these syndromes are discussed. Screening for cardiovascular risk as part of the decision of starting antiretroviral therapy, and during care of patients with HIV regardless of ART therapy status, is suggested with particular areas of focus. Statins, other hyperlipidemic therapies, treatment for specific problems arising due to lipodystrophy, and implications on ART selection to avoid drug interactions and adverse effects are also discussed.

  9. Assessing risk by impacts: a probabilistic approach for drought assessment in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blauhut, Veit; Stahl, Kerstin; Vogt, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    The risk of natural disasters in a very general sense is a combination of hazard and vulnerability. For drought, the hazard is commonly derived from the statistical analysis of one or a set of drought indicators. Their selection mostly depends on the focus of the study, with the usage of standardized indices experiencing growing popularity. Vulnerability to drought is typically estimated by a subjectively weighted combination of relevant factors describing different aspects of vulnerability, such as exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. This epistemic approach requires explicit information on physical, ecological, institutional and socioeconomic parameters. Even though impacts are known as symptoms of vulnerability and risk is often defined as the likelihood of impact occurrence (e.g. by the IPCC 2012 SREX report), information on past impacts is only poorly integrated in current drought risk assessment. Only few approaches have verified their vulnerability index with past impact information. We present a probabilistic approach to estimate drought risk based on the assumption that a system is vulnerable if it was impacted during a certain hazard. Thatfore, information on past drought impacts from the European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII) can function as a proxy for vulnerability to drought. Multivariable logistic regression is then applied to find non-subjective combinations of drought indices and vulnerability factors to predict the likelihood of drought impact occurrence. The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) of the European Drought Observatory, SPI and SPEI (1-36) are considered as drought indices; vulnerability factors are gathered from quantitative and qualitative data of statistical databases (e.g. Eurostat, Aquastat). Thus, sector- specific drought risk maps for selected hazard levels were developed for Europe. This work reconsiders the practice of current research philosophies and highlights the importance to detect vulnerability by its

  10. A Bayesian Approach to Integrated Ecological and Human Health Risk Assessment for the South River, Virginia Mercury-Contaminated Site.

    PubMed

    Harris, Meagan J; Stinson, Jonah; Landis, Wayne G

    2017-01-25

    We conducted a regional-scale integrated ecological and human health risk assessment by applying the relative risk model with Bayesian networks (BN-RRM) to a case study of the South River, Virginia mercury-contaminated site. Risk to four ecological services of the South River (human health, water quality, recreation, and the recreational fishery) was evaluated using a multiple stressor-multiple endpoint approach. These four ecological services were selected as endpoints based on stakeholder feedback and prioritized management goals for the river. The BN-RRM approach allowed for the calculation of relative risk to 14 biotic, human health, recreation, and water quality endpoints from chemical and ecological stressors in five risk regions of the South River. Results indicated that water quality and the recreational fishery were the ecological services at highest risk in the South River. Human health risk for users of the South River was low relative to the risk to other endpoints. Risk to recreation in the South River was moderate with little spatial variability among the five risk regions. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis identified stressors and other parameters that influence risk for each endpoint in each risk region. This research demonstrates a probabilistic approach to integrated ecological and human health risk assessment that considers the effects of chemical and ecological stressors across the landscape.

  11. CHILDREN AND PESTICIDES: New Approach to Considering Risk Is Partly in Place

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2000-09-01

    structurally related to DDT (which is neurotoxic), and is considered an endocrine disruptor . A safety factor of 3 was recommended. The main concern in terms of...decision because it was concerned that its recommendation could set a precedent for other endocrine disruptors . After seeking guidance from OPP division...GAO United States General Accounting OfficeReport to Congressional RequestersSeptember 2000 CHILDREN AND PESTICIDES New Approach to Considering Risk

  12. Physical therapy approaches to reduce fall and fracture risk among older adults.

    PubMed

    Karinkanta, Saija; Piirtola, Maarit; Sievänen, Harri; Uusi-Rasi, Kirsti; Kannus, Pekka

    2010-07-01

    Falls and fall-related injuries, such as fractures, are a growing problem among older adults, often causing longstanding pain, functional impairments, reduced quality of life and excess health-care costs and mortality. These problems have led to a variety of single component or multicomponent intervention strategies to prevent falls and subsequent injuries. The most effective physical therapy approach for the prevention of falls and fractures in community-dwelling older adults is regular multicomponent exercise; a combination of balance and strength training has shown the most success. Home-hazard assessment and modification, as well as assistive devices, such as canes and walkers, might be useful for older people at a high risk of falls. Hip protectors are effective in nursing home residents and potentially among other high-risk individuals. In addition, use of anti-slip shoe devices in icy conditions seems beneficial for older people walking outdoors. To be effective, multifactorial preventive programs should include an exercise component accompanied by individually tailored measures focused on high-risk populations. In this Review, we focus on evidence-based physical therapy approaches, including exercise, vibration training and improvements of safety at home and during periods of mobility. Additionally, the benefits of multifaceted interventions, which include risk factor assessment, dietary supplements, elements of physical therapy and exercise, are addressed.

  13. A risk-benefit analysis of French high fish consumption: a QALY approach.

    PubMed

    Guevel, Marie-Renée; Sirot, Véronique; Volatier, Jean-Luc; Leblanc, Jean-Charles

    2008-02-01

    The health risk and the nutritional benefit of a food are usually assessed separately. Toxicologists recommend limiting the consumption of certain fish because of methylmercury; while nutritionists recommend eating more oily fish because of omega 3. A common evaluation is imperative to provide coherent recommendations. In order to evaluate the risks along with the benefits related to fish consumption, a common metric based on the quality-adjusted life year (QALY) method has been used. The impact of a theoretical change from a medium n-3 PUFAs intake to a high intake is studied, in terms of the cardiovascular system (CHD mortality, stroke mortality and morbidity) and on fetal neuronal development (IQ loss or gain). This application can be considered as a sensitive analysis of the model used and looks at the impact of changing the dose-response relationships between cardiovascular diseases and n-3 PUFAs intakes. Results show that increasing fish consumption may have a beneficial impact on health. However, the confidence interval of the overall estimation has a negative lower bound, which means that this increase in fish consumption may have a negative impact due to MeHg contamination. Some limits of the QALY approach are identified. The first concerns determination of the dose-response relationships. The second concerns the economic origins of the approach and of individual preferences. Finally, since only one beneficial aspect and one risk element were studied, consideration should be given to how other beneficial and risk components may be integrated in the model.

  14. Integrated approach of environmental impact and risk assessment of Rosia Montana Mining Area, Romania.

    PubMed

    Stefănescu, Lucrina; Robu, Brînduşa Mihaela; Ozunu, Alexandru

    2013-11-01

    The environmental impact assessment of mining sites represents nowadays a large interest topic in Romania. Historical pollution in the Rosia Montana mining area of Romania caused extensive damage to environmental media. This paper has two goals: to investigate the environmental pollution induced by mining activities in the Rosia Montana area and to quantify the environmental impacts and associated risks by means of an integrated approach. Thus, a new method was developed and applied for quantifying the impact of mining activities, taking account of the quality of environmental media in the mining area, and used as case study in the present paper. The associated risks are a function of the environmental impacts and the probability of their occurrence. The results show that the environmental impacts and quantified risks, based on quality indicators to characterize the environmental quality, are of a higher order, and thus measures for pollution remediation and control need to be considered in the investigated area. The conclusion drawn is that an integrated approach for the assessment of environmental impact and associated risks is a valuable and more objective method, and is an important tool that can be applied in the decision-making process for national authorities in the prioritization of emergency action.

  15. Naval Ship Maintenance: An Analysis of the Dutch Shipbuilding Industry using the Knowledge Value Added, Systems Dynamics, and Integrated Risk Management Methodologies

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-04-01

    Adopting 3D PDF alone improves ROI significantly more than adopting a logistics package alone, and adding both technologies improves ROI more than...research sponsor, or to print additional copies of reports, please contact any of the staff listed on the Acquisition Research Program website...technology adoption. Results were compared with previously developed modeling results of U.S. Navy ship maintenance and technology adoption. Adopting 3D PDF

  16. Sudden cardiac death in hemodialysis patients: a comprehensive care approach to reduce risk.

    PubMed

    Pun, Patrick H; Middleton, John P

    2012-01-01

    Sudden cardiac death is a major problem in hemodialysis patients, and our understanding of this disease is underdeveloped. The lack of a precise definition tailored for use in the hemodialysis population limits the reliability of epidemiologic reports. Efforts should be directed toward an accurate classification of all deaths that occur in this vulnerable population. The traditional paradigm of disease pathophysiology based on known cardiac risk factors appears to be inadequate to explain the magnitude of sudden cardiac death risk in chronic kidney disease, and numerous unique cofactors and exposures appear to determine risk in this population. Well-designed cohort studies will be needed for a basic understanding of disease pathophysiology and risk factors, and randomized intervention trials will be needed before best management practices can be implemented. This review examines available data to describe the characteristics of the high-risk patient and suggests a comprehensive common sense approach to prevention using existing cardiovascular medications and reducing and monitoring potential dialysis-related arrhythmic triggers. Other unproven cardiovascular therapies such as implantable cardioverter defibrillators should be used on a case-by-case basis, with recognition of the associated hazards that these devices carry among hemodialysis patients.

  17. A risk-adjusted approach to comparing the return on investment in health care programs.

    PubMed

    Sendi, Pedram; Al, Maiwenn J; Zimmermann, Heinz

    2004-09-01

    The league table approach to rank ordering health care programs according to the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is a common method to guide policy makers in setting priorities for resource allocation. In the presence of uncertainty, however, ranking programs is complicated by the degree of variability associated with each program. Confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness ratios may be overlapping. Moreover, confidence intervals may include negative ratios and the interpretation of negative cost-effectiveness ratios is ambiguous. We suggest to rank mutually exclusive health care programs according to their rate of return which is defined as the net monetary benefit over the costs of the program. However, how does a program with a higher expected return but higher uncertainty compare to a program with a lower expected return but lower risk? In the present paper we propose a risk-adjusted measure to compare the return on investment in health care programs. Financing a health care program is treated as an investment in a risky asset. The risky asset is combined with a risk-free asset in order to construct a combined portfolio. The weights attributed to the risk-free and risky assets are chosen in such a manner that all programs under consideration exhibit the same degree of uncertainty. We can then compare the performance of the individual programs by constructing a risk-adjusted league table of expected returns.

  18. A theory-based approach to understanding suicide risk in shelter-seeking women.

    PubMed

    Wolford-Clevenger, Caitlin; Smith, Phillip N

    2015-04-01

    Women seeking shelter from intimate partner violence are at an increased risk for suicide ideation and attempts compared to women in the general population. Control-based violence, which is common among shelter-seeking women, may play a pivotal role in the development of suicide ideation and attempts. Current risk assessment and management practices for shelter-seeking women are limited by the lack of an empirically grounded understanding of increased risk in this population. We argue that in order to more effectively promote risk assessment and management, an empirically supported theory that is sensitive to the experiences of shelter-seeking women is needed. Such a theory-driven approach has the benefits of identifying and prioritizing targetable areas for intervention. Here, we review the evidence for the link between coercive control and suicide ideation and attempts from the perspective of Baumeister's escape theory of suicide. This theory has the potential to explain the role of coercive control in the development of suicide ideation and eventual attempts in shelter-seeking women. Implications for suicide risk assessment and prevention in domestic violence shelters are discussed.

  19. A risk-based approach to setting priorities in protecting bridges against terrorist attacks.

    PubMed

    Leung, Maria; Lambert, James H; Mosenthal, Alexander

    2004-08-01

    This article presents an approach to the problem of terrorism risk assessment and management by adapting the framework of the risk filtering, ranking, and management method. The assessment is conducted at two levels: (1) the system level, and (2) the asset-specific level. The system-level risk assessment attempts to identify and prioritize critical infrastructures from an inventory of system assets. The definition of critical infrastructures offered by Presidential Decision Directive 63 was used to determine the set of attributes to identify critical assets--categorized according to national, regional, and local impact. An example application is demonstrated using information from the Federal Highway Administration National Bridge Inventory for the State of Virginia. Conversely, the asset-specific risk assessment performs an in-depth analysis of the threats and vulnerabilities of a specific critical infrastructure. An illustration is presented to offer some insights in risk scenario identification and prioritization, multiobjective evaluation of management options, and extreme-event analysis for critical infrastructure protection.

  20. Intent, Capability and Opportunity: A Holistic Approach to Addressing Proliferation as a Risk Management Issue

    SciTech Connect

    Amanda Rynes; Trond Bjornard

    2011-07-01

    Currently, proliferation risk assessment models are designed to evaluate only a portion of the overall risk, focusing exclusively on either technological or social factors to determine the extent of a threat. Many of these models are intended to act as a means of predicting proliferation potential rather than assessing the system as a whole, ignoring the ability to enhance mitigating factors and manage, rather just establish the presence of, the threat. While the information garnered through these forms of analysis is necessary, it remains incomplete. By incorporating political, social, economic and technical capabilities as well as human factors such as intent into a single, multi-faceted risk management model, proliferation risk can be evaluated more effectively. Framing this information around how to improve and expand the Regime already in place and establishing where there are gaps in the system allows for a more complete approach to risk management, mitigation and resource allocation. The research conducted here seeks to combine all three elements (intent, capability and opportunity) in a comprehensive evaluation which incorporates an assessment of state-level variables, possible proliferation pathways and technical capability. Each portion of the analysis is carried out independently then combined to illustrate the full scope of a State's nuclear infrastructure while showing areas of weakness in the institutional framework.

  1. Consequences of Landscape Fragmentation on Lyme Disease Risk: A Cellular Automata Approach

    PubMed Central

    Li, Sen; Hartemink, Nienke; Speybroeck, Niko; Vanwambeke, Sophie O.

    2012-01-01

    The abundance of infected Ixodid ticks is an important component of human risk of Lyme disease, and various empirical studies have shown that this is associated, at least in part, to landscape fragmentation. In this study, we aimed at exploring how varying woodland fragmentation patterns affect the risk of Lyme disease, through infected tick abundance. A cellular automata model was developed, incorporating a heterogeneous landscape with three interactive components: an age-structured tick population, a classical disease transmission function, and hosts. A set of simplifying assumptions were adopted with respect to the study objective and field data limitations. In the model, the landscape influences both tick survival and host movement. The validation of the model was performed with an empirical study. Scenarios of various landscape configurations (focusing on woodland fragmentation) were simulated and compared. Lyme disease risk indices (density and infection prevalence of nymphs) differed considerably between scenarios: (i) the risk could be higher in highly fragmented woodlands, which is supported by a number of recently published empirical studies, and (ii) grassland could reduce the risk in adjacent woodland, which suggests landscape fragmentation studies of zoonotic diseases should not focus on the patch-level woodland patterns only, but also on landscape-level adjacent land cover patterns. Further analysis of the simulation results indicated strong correlations between Lyme disease risk indices and the density, shape and aggregation level of woodland patches. These findings highlight the strong effect of the spatial patterns of local host population and movement on the spatial dynamics of Lyme disease risks, which can be shaped by woodland fragmentation. In conclusion, using a cellular automata approach is beneficial for modelling complex zoonotic transmission systems as it can be combined with either real world landscapes for exploring direct spatial

  2. Consequences of landscape fragmentation on Lyme disease risk: a cellular automata approach.

    PubMed

    Li, Sen; Hartemink, Nienke; Speybroeck, Niko; Vanwambeke, Sophie O

    2012-01-01

    The abundance of infected Ixodid ticks is an important component of human risk of Lyme disease, and various empirical studies have shown that this is associated, at least in part, to landscape fragmentation. In this study, we aimed at exploring how varying woodland fragmentation patterns affect the risk of Lyme disease, through infected tick abundance. A cellular automata model was developed, incorporating a heterogeneous landscape with three interactive components: an age-structured tick population, a classical disease transmission function, and hosts. A set of simplifying assumptions were adopted with respect to the study objective and field data limitations. In the model, the landscape influences both tick survival and host movement. The validation of the model was performed with an empirical study. Scenarios of various landscape configurations (focusing on woodland fragmentation) were simulated and compared. Lyme disease risk indices (density and infection prevalence of nymphs) differed considerably between scenarios: (i) the risk could be higher in highly fragmented woodlands, which is supported by a number of recently published empirical studies, and (ii) grassland could reduce the risk in adjacent woodland, which suggests landscape fragmentation studies of zoonotic diseases should not focus on the patch-level woodland patterns only, but also on landscape-level adjacent land cover patterns. Further analysis of the simulation results indicated strong correlations between Lyme disease risk indices and the density, shape and aggregation level of woodland patches. These findings highlight the strong effect of the spatial patterns of local host population and movement on the spatial dynamics of Lyme disease risks, which can be shaped by woodland fragmentation. In conclusion, using a cellular automata approach is beneficial for modelling complex zoonotic transmission systems as it can be combined with either real world landscapes for exploring direct spatial

  3. Urban flood early warning systems: approaches to hydrometeorological forecasting and communicating risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cranston, Michael; Speight, Linda; Maxey, Richard; Tavendale, Amy; Buchanan, Peter

    2015-04-01

    One of the main challenges for the flood forecasting community remains the provision of reliable early warnings of surface (or pluvial) flooding. The Scottish Flood Forecasting Service has been developing approaches for forecasting the risk of surface water flooding including capitalising on the latest developments in quantitative precipitation forecasting from the Met Office. A probabilistic Heavy Rainfall Alert decision support tool helps operational forecasters assess the likelihood of surface water flooding against regional rainfall depth-duration estimates from MOGREPS-UK linked to historical short-duration flooding in Scotland. The surface water flood risk is communicated through the daily Flood Guidance Statement to emergency responders. A more recent development is an innovative risk-based hydrometeorological approach that links 24-hour ensemble rainfall forecasts through a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) to a library of impact assessments (Speight et al., 2015). The early warning tool - FEWS Glasgow - presents the risk of flooding to people, property and transport across a 1km grid over the city of Glasgow with a lead time of 24 hours. Communication of the risk was presented in a bespoke surface water flood forecast product designed based on emergency responder requirements and trialled during the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. The development of new approaches to surface water flood forecasting are leading to improved methods of communicating the risk and better performance in early warning with a reduction in false alarm rates with summer flood guidance in 2014 (67%) compared to 2013 (81%) - although verification of instances of surface water flooding remains difficult. However the introduction of more demanding hydrometeorological capabilities with associated greater levels of uncertainty does lead to an increased demand on operational flood forecasting skills and resources. Speight, L., Cole, S.J., Moore, R.J., Pierce, C., Wright, B., Golding, B

  4. Risk management for moisture related effects in dry manufacturing processes: a statistical approach.

    PubMed

    Quiroz, Jorge; Strong, John; Zhang, Lanju

    2016-03-01

    A risk- and science-based approach to control the quality in pharmaceutical manufacturing includes a full understanding of how product attributes and process parameters relate to product performance through a proactive approach in formulation and process development. For dry manufacturing, where moisture content is not directly manipulated within the process, the variability in moisture of the incoming raw materials can impact both the processability and drug product quality attributes. A statistical approach is developed using individual raw material historical lots as a basis for the calculation of tolerance intervals for drug product moisture content so that risks associated with excursions in moisture content can be mitigated. The proposed method is based on a model-independent approach that uses available data to estimate parameters of interest that describe the population of blend moisture content values and which do not require knowledge of the individual blend moisture content values. Another advantage of the proposed tolerance intervals is that, it does not require the use of tabulated values for tolerance factors. This facilitates the implementation on any spreadsheet program like Microsoft Excel. A computational example is used to demonstrate the proposed method.

  5. In silico approaches to predicting cancer potency for risk assessment of genotoxic impurities in drug substances.

    PubMed

    Bercu, Joel P; Morton, Stuart M; Deahl, J Thom; Gombar, Vijay K; Callis, Courtney M; van Lier, Robert B L

    2010-01-01

    The current risk assessment approach for addressing the safety of very small concentrations of genotoxic impurities (GTIs) in drug substances is the threshold of toxicological concern (TTC). The TTC is based on several conservative assumptions because of the uncertainty associated with deriving an excess cancer risk when no carcinogenicity data are available for the impurity. It is a default approach derived from a distribution of carcinogens and does not take into account the properties of a specific chemical. The purpose of the study was to use in silico tools to predict the cancer potency (TD(50)) of a compound based on its structure. Structure activity relationship (SAR) models (classification/regression) were developed from the carcinogenicity potency database using MultiCASE and VISDOM. The MultiCASE classification models allowed the prediction of carcinogenic potency class, while the VISDOM regression models predicted a numerical TD(50). A step-wise approach is proposed to calculate predicted numerical TD(50) values for compounds categorized as not potent. This approach for non-potent compounds can be used to establish safe levels greater than the TTC for GTIs in a drug substance.

  6. Avalanche risk assessment - a multi-temporal approach, results from Galtür, Austria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keiler, M.; Sailer, R.; Jörg, P.; Weber, C.; Fuchs, S.; Zischg, A.; Sauermoser, S.

    2006-07-01

    Snow avalanches pose a threat to settlements and infrastructure in alpine environments. Due to the catastrophic events in recent years, the public is more aware of this phenomenon. Alpine settlements have always been confronted with natural hazards, but changes in land use and in dealing with avalanche hazards lead to an altering perception of this threat. In this study, a multi-temporal risk assessment is presented for three avalanche tracks in the municipality of Galtür, Austria. Changes in avalanche risk as well as changes in the risk-influencing factors (process behaviour, values at risk (buildings) and vulnerability) between 1950 and 2000 are quantified. An additional focus is put on the interconnection between these factors and their influence on the resulting risk. The avalanche processes were calculated using different simulation models (SAMOS as well as ELBA+). For each avalanche track, different scenarios were calculated according to the development of mitigation measures. The focus of the study was on a multi-temporal risk assessment; consequently the used models could be replaced with other snow avalanche models providing the same functionalities. The monetary values of buildings were estimated using the volume of the buildings and average prices per cubic meter. The changing size of the buildings over time was inferred from construction plans. The vulnerability of the buildings is understood as a degree of loss to a given element within the area affected by natural hazards. A vulnerability function for different construction types of buildings that depends on avalanche pressure was used to assess the degree of loss. No general risk trend could be determined for the studied avalanche tracks. Due to the high complexity of the variations in risk, small changes of one of several influencing factors can cause considerable differences in the resulting risk. This multi-temporal approach leads to better understanding of the today's risk by identifying the

  7. An Integrated Risk Approach for Assessing the Use of Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts in Hydroelectric Reservoir Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowry, T. S.; Wigmosta, M.; Barco, J.; Voisin, N.; Bier, A.; Coleman, A.; Skaggs, R.

    2012-12-01

    This paper presents an integrated risk approach using ensemble streamflow forecasts for optimizing hydro-electric power generation. Uncertainty in the streamflow forecasts are translated into integrated risk by calculating the deviation of an optimized release schedule that simultaneously maximizes power generation and environmental performance from release schedules that maximize the two objectives individually. The deviations from each target are multiplied by the probability of occurrence and then summed across all probabilities to get the integrated risk. The integrated risk is used to determine which operational scheme exposes the operator to the least amount of risk or conversely, what are the consequences of basing future operations on a particular prediction. Decisions can be made with regards to the tradeoff between power generation, environmental performance, and exposure to risk. The Hydropower Seasonal Concurrent Optimization for Power and Environment (HydroSCOPE) model developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is used to model the flow, temperature, and power generation and is coupled with the DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) optimization package to identify the maximum potential power generation, the maximum environmental performance, and the optimal operational scheme that maximizes both for each instance of the ensemble forecasts. The ensemble forecasts were developed in a collaborative effort between the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the University of Washington to develop an Enhanced Hydrologic Forecasting System (EHFS) that incorporates advanced ensemble forecasting approaches and algorithms, spatiotemporal datasets, and automated data acquisition and processing. Both the HydroSCOPE model and the EHFS forecast tool are being developed as part of a larger, multi-laboratory water-use optimization project funded through the US Department of Energy. The simulations were based on the

  8. An approach for environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference rules.

    PubMed

    Topuz, Emel; van Gestel, Cornelis A M

    2016-01-01

    The usage of Engineered Nanoparticles (ENPs) in consumer products is relatively new and there is a need to conduct environmental risk assessment (ERA) to evaluate their impacts on the environment. However, alternative approaches are required for ERA of ENPs because of the huge gap in data and knowledge compared to conventional pollutants and their unique properties that make it difficult to apply existing approaches. This study aims to propose an ERA approach for ENPs by integrating Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference models which provide a systematic evaluation of risk factors and reducing uncertainty about the data and information, respectively. Risk is assumed to be the combination of occurrence likelihood, exposure potential and toxic effects in the environment. A hierarchy was established to evaluate the sub factors of these components. Evaluation was made with fuzzy numbers to reduce uncertainty and incorporate the expert judgements. Overall score of each component was combined with fuzzy inference rules by using expert judgements. Proposed approach reports the risk class and its membership degree such as Minor (0.7). Therefore, results are precise and helpful to determine the risk management strategies. Moreover, priority weights calculated by comparing the risk factors based on their importance for the risk enable users to understand which factor is effective on the risk. Proposed approach was applied for Ag (two nanoparticles with different coating) and TiO2 nanoparticles for different case studies. Results verified the proposed benefits of the approach.

  9. A statistical approach to evaluate flood risk at the regional level: an application to Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossi, Mauro; Marchesini, Ivan; Salvati, Paola; Donnini, Marco; Guzzetti, Fausto; Sterlacchini, Simone; Zazzeri, Marco; Bonazzi, Alessandro; Carlesi, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    Floods are frequent and widespread in Italy, causing every year multiple fatalities and extensive damages to public and private structures. A pre-requisite for the development of mitigation schemes, including financial instruments such as insurance, is the ability to quantify their costs starting from the estimation of the underlying flood hazard. However, comprehensive and coherent information on flood prone areas, and estimates on the frequency and intensity of flood events, are not often available at scales appropriate for risk pooling and diversification. In Italy, River Basins Hydrogeological Plans (PAI), prepared by basin administrations, are the basic descriptive, regulatory, technical and operational tools for environmental planning in flood prone areas. Nevertheless, such plans do not cover the entire Italian territory, having significant gaps along the minor hydrographic network and in ungauged basins. Several process-based modelling approaches have been used by different basin administrations for the flood hazard assessment, resulting in an inhomogeneous hazard zonation of the territory. As a result, flood hazard assessments expected and damage estimations across the different Italian basin administrations are not always coherent. To overcome these limitations, we propose a simplified multivariate statistical approach for the regional flood hazard zonation coupled with a flood impact model. This modelling approach has been applied in different Italian basin administrations, allowing a preliminary but coherent and comparable estimation of the flood hazard and the relative impact. Model performances are evaluated comparing the predicted flood prone areas with the corresponding PAI zonation. The proposed approach will provide standardized information (following the EU Floods Directive specifications) on flood risk at a regional level which can in turn be more readily applied to assess flood economic impacts. Furthermore, in the assumption of an appropriate

  10. Landslide risk impact management and web services for improving resilience: the LIFE+IMAGINE project approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Congi, Maria Pia; Campo, Valentina; Cipolloni, Carlo; Delmonaco, Giuseppe; Guerrieri, Luca; Iadanza, Carla; Spizzichino, Daniele; Trigila, Alessandro

    2014-05-01

    The increasing damage caused by natural disasters in the last decades points out the need for interoperable added-value services to support environmental safety and human protection, by reducing vulnerability of exposed elements as well as improving the resilience of the involved communities. For this reason, to provide access to harmonized and customized data is only one of several steps towards delivering adequate support to risk assessment, reduction and management. Scope of the present work is to illustrate a methodology under development for analysis of potential impacts in areas prone to landslide hazard in the framework of the EC project LIFE+IMAGINE. The project aims to implement an infrastructure based on web services for environmental analysis, that integrates in its own architecture specifications and results from INSPIRE, SEIS and GMES. Existing web services will be customized during the project to provide functionalities for supporting the environmental integrated management. The implemented infrastructure will be applied to landslide risk scenarios, to be developed in selected pilot areas, aiming at: i) application of standard procedures to implement a landslide risk analysis; ii) definition of a procedure for assessment of potential environmental impacts, based on a set of indicators to estimate the different exposed elements with their specific vulnerability in the pilot area. More in detail, the landslide pilot will be aimed at providing a landslide risk scenario through the implementation and analysis of: 1) a landslide inventory from available historical databases and maps; 2) landslide susceptibility and hazard maps; 3) assessment of exposure and vulnerability on selected typologies of elements at risk; 4) implementation of a landslide risk scenario for different sets of exposed elements (e.g. population, road network, residential area, cultural heritage). The pilot will be implemented in Liguria, Italy, in two different catchment areas located

  11. A risk management approach to nuclear waste inventory versus storage capacity

    SciTech Connect

    Awadalla, N.G.

    1996-10-02

    Nuclear waste is presently stored in 177 underground storage tanks at -the U. S. Department of Energy`s Hanford Site in Washington State. The storage tanks are of two construction types, 149 single-shell tanks (SSTS) and 28 double-shell tanks (DSTs). No waste has been added to the SSTs since 1980. However, the DSTs are configured to receive additional waste from site waste generators. The overall waste inventory is time dependent and strongly influenced by present and future tank farm operations. These operations include waste evaporation, retrieval, pretreatment, and processing; waste generated from various site facilities; and SST waste inventory transferred to the DSTS. A risk-based simulation model was developed to replicate the waste inventory through the year 2015. The DST waste,,; were divided into three waste types (aging, complexed, @md non-complexed) that were simulated in the model. For each of the three waste types, statistical analyses were performed and the time-de,Pendent waste volumes at the ``mean`` and ``90% confidence level`` were compared with existing DST capacity. Several ``off-normal`` operation scenarios were also analyzed using the risk-based simulation model. Mitigating actions or fallback positions were modeled where off- normal scenarios indicated that capacity shortfalls could potentially occur. The results indicated that selected fallback positions were adequate to ensure that the storage capacity exceeded the waste invento0167ry during the affected time periods.

  12. Risk management in medical product development process using traditional FMEA and fuzzy linguistic approach: a case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirkire, Milind Shrikant; Rane, Santosh B.; Jadhav, Jagdish Rajaram

    2015-05-01

    Medical product development (MPD) process is highly multidisciplinary in nature, which increases the complexity and the associated risks. Managing the risks during MPD process is very crucial. The objective of this research is to explore risks during MPD in a dental product manufacturing company and propose a model for risk mitigation during MPD process to minimize failure events. A case study approach is employed. The existing MPD process is mapped with five phases of the customized phase gate process. The activities during each phase of development and risks associated with each activity are identified and categorized based on the source of occurrence. The risks are analyzed using traditional Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) and fuzzy FMEA. The results of two methods when compared show that fuzzy approach avoids the duplication of RPNs and helps more to convert cognition of experts into information to get values of risk factors. The critical, moderate, low level and negligible risks are identified based on criticality; risk treatments and mitigation model are proposed. During initial phases of MPD, the risks are less severe, but as the process progresses the severity of risks goes on increasing. The MPD process should be critically designed and simulated to minimize the number of risk events and their severity. To successfully develop the products/devices within the manufacturing companies, the process risk management is very essential. A systematic approach to manage risks during MPD process will lead to the development of medical products with expected quality and reliability. This is the first research of its kind having focus on MPD process risks and its management. The methodology adopted in this paper will help the developers, managers and researchers to have a competitive edge over the other companies by managing the risks during the development process.

  13. The land morphology approach to flood risk mapping: An application to Portugal.

    PubMed

    Cunha, N S; Magalhães, M R; Domingos, T; Abreu, M M; Küpfer, C

    2017-05-15

    In the last decades, the increasing vulnerability of floodplains is linked to societal changes such as population density growth, land use changes, water use patterns, among other factors. Land morphology directly influences surface water flow, transport of sediments, soil genesis, local climate and vegetation distribution. Therefore, the land morphology, the land used and management directly influences flood risks genesis. However, attention is not always given to the underlying geomorphological and ecological processes that influence the dynamic of rivers and their floodplains. Floodplains are considered a part of a larger system called Wet System (WS). The WS includes permanent and temporary streams, water bodies, wetlands and valley bottoms. Valley bottom is a broad concept which comprehends not only floodplains but also flat and concave areas, contiguous to streams, in which slope is less than 5%. This will be addressed through a consistent method based on a land morphology approach that classifies landforms according to their hydrological position in the watershed. This method is based on flat areas (slopes less than 5%), surface curvature and hydrological features. The comparison between WS and flood risk data from the Portuguese Environmental Agency for the main rivers of mainland Portugal showed that in downstream areas of watersheds, valley bottoms are coincident with floodplains modelled by hydrological methods. Mapping WS has a particular interest in analysing river ecosystems position and function in the landscape, from upstream to downstream areas in the watershed. This morphological approach is less demanding data and time-consuming than hydrological methods and can be used as the preliminary delimitation of floodplains and potential flood risk areas in situations where there is no hydrological data available. The results were also compared with the land use/cover map at a national level and detailed in Trancão river basin, located in Lisbon

  14. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  15. The polypill: An effective approach to increasing adherence and reducing cardiovascular event risk.

    PubMed

    Bramlage, Peter; Sims, Helen; Minguet, Joan; Ferrero, Carmen

    2017-02-01

    Background Despite a wide range of medications being available for the prevention of cardiovascular events such as stroke, myocardial infarction and mortality in both a primary and secondary setting, patient adherence to complex therapy regimens involving different drug classes remains low worldwide. Combining antiplatelet, antihypertensive, lipid-lowering and potentially further drugs into one 'polypill' has the potential to increase adherence, thereby reducing risk factors to a greater extent and for a longer duration. The World Health Organization has recently highlighted increased adherence as a key development need for reducing cardiovascular disease. Methods Recent clinical trial data regarding adherence, reductions in cardiovascular risk and outcomes, safety and tolerability and the cost-effectiveness of the polypill approach are summarised and reviewed. In addition, ongoing trials and the questions they intend to answer are considered. References were retrieved from a PubMed literature search (date range 1990-2016) using the terms 'polypill', 'cardiovascular events' and 'adherence', and selected based on relevance. The website www.clinicaltrials.gov was also consulted for the identification of ongoing trials. Conclusions To date, the polypill approach has been conclusively shown to increase adherence relative to usual care in all patients, with those in a primary care setting or with poor baseline adherence potentially standing to benefit most. Concomitant risk factor reductions have also been suggested. However, whether this translates into a reduction in cardiovascular events and generates good cost-effectiveness in a given healthcare environment is currently under further investigation.

  16. A risk-based approach to assess projected yield changes at regional scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lissner, Tabea; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Mueller, Christoph

    2015-04-01

    Impacts of climate change on agricultural production are likely to negatively affect food security. However, large uncertainties exist in future projections of agricultural yields as well as regional differences in the direction and magnitude of the projected changes. An important question with regard to uncertainties in future crop yield projections is how to translate the modelling range into results meaningful for impact analyses and provide policy-relevant information. One way of addressing this question is to use a risk-based approach, analysing the risk of yield reductions at different levels of temperature increase on the basis of modelling intercomparison data (AgMIP). To assess regional scale differences in yield changes, we look at aggregates of agricultural production within the 26 regions defined in the IPCC SREX report. Using the available output of the AgMIP project, we assess the projected risk of regional yield reductions for maize, rice, wheat and soy at incremental steps of 0.5°C warming. Based on production areas of the year 2000 (MIRCA2000, Portmann, 2011), we assess projected yield changes only within current production areas, thereby excluding potential cropland expansion. Our approach provides an additional view-point to the existing analyses of the output of the AgMIP project. References: Portmann, F.T. (2011): Global estimation of monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas on a 5 arc-minute grid. Frankfurt Hydrology Paper 09, Institute of Physical Geography, University of Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

  17. Integrating risk and resilience approaches to catastrophe management in engineering systems.

    PubMed

    Park, J; Seager, T P; Rao, P S C; Convertino, M; Linkov, I

    2013-03-01

    Recent natural and man-made catastrophes, such as the Fukushima nuclear power plant, flooding caused by Hurricane Katrina, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the Haiti earthquake, and the mortgage derivatives crisis, have renewed interest in the concept of resilience, especially as it relates to complex systems vulnerable to multiple or cascading failures. Although the meaning of resilience is contested in different contexts, in general resilience is understood to mean the capacity to adapt to changing conditions without catastrophic loss of form or function. In the context of engineering systems, this has sometimes been interpreted as the probability that system conditions might exceed an irrevocable tipping point. However, we argue that this approach improperly conflates resilience and risk perspectives by expressing resilience exclusively in risk terms. In contrast, we describe resilience as an emergent property of what an engineering system does, rather than a static property the system has. Therefore, resilience cannot be measured at the systems scale solely from examination of component parts. Instead, resilience is better understood as the outcome of a recursive process that includes: sensing, anticipation, learning, and adaptation. In this approach, resilience analysis can be understood as differentiable from, but complementary to, risk analysis, with important implications for the adaptive management of complex, coupled engineering systems. Management of the 2011 flooding in the Mississippi River Basin is discussed as an example of the successes and challenges of resilience-based management of complex natural systems that have been extensively altered by engineered structures.

  18. Improving polygenic risk prediction from summary statistics by an empirical Bayes approach

    PubMed Central

    So, Hon-Cheong; Sham, Pak C.

    2017-01-01

    Polygenic risk scores (PRS) from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are increasingly used to predict disease risks. However some included variants could be false positives and the raw estimates of effect sizes from them may be subject to selection bias. In addition, the standard PRS approach requires testing over a range of p-value thresholds, which are often chosen arbitrarily. The prediction error estimated from the optimized threshold may also be subject to an optimistic bias. To improve genomic risk prediction, we proposed new empirical Bayes approaches to recover the underlying effect sizes and used them as weights to construct PRS. We applied the new PRS to twelve cardio-metabolic traits in the Northern Finland Birth Cohort and demonstrated improvements in predictive power (in R2) when compared to standard PRS at the best p-value threshold. Importantly, for eleven out of the twelve traits studied, the predictive performance from the entire set of genome-wide markers outperformed the best R2 from standard PRS at optimal p-value thresholds. Our proposed methodology essentially enables an automatic PRS weighting scheme without the need of choosing tuning parameters. The new method also performed satisfactorily in simulations. It is computationally simple and does not require assumptions on the effect size distributions. PMID:28145530

  19. Approach for Mitigating Pressure Garment Design Risks in a Mobile Lunar Surface Systems Architecture

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aitchison, Lindsay

    2009-01-01

    The stated goals of the 2004 Vision for Space Exploration focus on establishing a human presence throughout the solar system beginning with the establishment of a permanent human presence on the Moon. However, the precise objectives to be accomplished on the lunar surface and the optimal system architecture to achieve those objectives have been a topic of much debate since the inception of the Constellation Program. There are two basic styles of system architectures being traded at the Programmatic level: a traditional large outpost that would focus on techniques for survival off our home planet and a greater depth of exploration within one area, or a mobile approach- akin to a series of nomadic camps- that would allow greater breadth of exploration opportunities. The traditional outpost philosophy is well within the understood pressure garment design space with respect to developing interfaces and operational life cycle models. The mobile outpost, however, combines many unknowns with respect to pressure garment performance and reliability that could dramatically affect the cost and schedule risks associated with the Constellation space suit system. This paper provides an overview of the concepts being traded for a mobile architecture from the operations and hardware implementation perspective, describes the primary risks to the Constellation pressure garment associated with each of the concepts, and summarizes the approach necessary to quantify the pressure garment design risks to enable the Constellation Program to make informed decisions when deciding on an overall lunar surface systems architecture.

  20. A practical approach for implementing risk-based inservice testing of pumps at nuclear power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Hartley, R.S.; Maret, D.; Seniuk, P.; Smith, L.

    1996-12-01

    The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Center for Research and Technology Development`s (CRTD) Research Task Force on Risk-Based Inservice Testing has developed guidelines for risk-based inservice testing (IST) of pumps and valves. These guidelines are intended to help the ASME Operation and Maintenance (OM) Committee to enhance plant safety while focussing appropriate testing resources on critical components. This paper describes a practical approach for implementing those guidelines for pumps at nuclear power plants. The approach, as described in this paper, relies on input, direction, and assistance from several entities such as the ASME Code Committees, United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and the National Laboratories, as well as industry groups and personnel with applicable expertise. Key parts of the risk-based IST process that are addressed here include: identification of important failure modes, identification of significant failure causes, assessing the effectiveness of testing and maintenance activities, development of alternative testing and maintenance strategies, and assessing the effectiveness of alternative testing strategies with present ASME Code requirements. Finally, the paper suggests a method of implementing this process into the ASME OM Code for pump testing.

  1. Are epidemiological approaches suitable to study risk/preventive factors for human birth defects?

    PubMed Central

    Oberg, Anna Sara

    2015-01-01

    Birth defects are a major cause of infant morbidity and mortality and contribute substantially to long-term disability. One out of every 33 babies is born with some type of birth defect. Despite decades of research on environmental, behavioral and genetic risk factors, the vast majority of birth defects still occur without known cause. It is possible that birth defects are largely stochastic (and unavoidable) events, at which efforts to investigate their causes would be futile and unjustified. In this commentary we argue for the continued research into risk/preventive factors of human birth defects, and outline why epidemiological studies are suitable for such endeavors. First we discuss what factors to target (genetic or environmental) and how to define the pertinent research questions. Then we present a short review of both epidemiological contributions in the past and approaches to advance the field in the future. After considering also their limitations, we conclude that modern epidemiologic approaches are invaluable to advance our understanding of risk factors for human birth defects, and that interdisciplinary collaborations will also be essential to further our knowledge. PMID:25722958

  2. Use of an ecologically relevant modelling approach to improve remote sensing-based schistosomiasis risk profiling.

    PubMed

    Walz, Yvonne; Wegmann, Martin; Leutner, Benjamin; Dech, Stefan; Vounatsou, Penelope; N'Goran, Eliézer K; Raso, Giovanna; Utzinger, Jürg

    2015-11-30

    Schistosomiasis is a widespread water-based disease that puts close to 800 million people at risk of infection with more than 250 million infected, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa. Transmission is governed by the spatial distribution of specific freshwater snails that act as intermediate hosts and the frequency, duration and extent of human bodies exposed to infested water sources during human water contact. Remote sensing data have been utilized for spatially explicit risk profiling of schistosomiasis. Since schistosomiasis risk profiling based on remote sensing data inherits a conceptual drawback if school-based disease prevalence data are directly related to the remote sensing measurements extracted at the location of the school, because the disease transmission usually does not exactly occur at the school, we took the local environment around the schools into account by explicitly linking ecologically relevant environmental information of potential disease transmission sites to survey measurements of disease prevalence. Our models were validated at two sites with different landscapes in Côte d'Ivoire using high- and moderate-resolution remote sensing data based on random forest and partial least squares regression. We found that the ecologically relevant modelling approach explained up to 70% of the variation in Schistosoma infection prevalence and performed better compared to a purely pixel-based modelling approach. Furthermore, our study showed that model performance increased as a function of enlarging the school catchment area, confirming the hypothesis that suitable environments for schistosomiasis transmission rarely occur at the location of survey measurements.

  3. Ecological risks of trace metals in Guanabara Bay, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: An index analysis approach.

    PubMed

    de Carvalho Aguiar, Valquiria Maria; de Lima, Michelle Nunes; Abuchacra, Rodrigo Coutinho; Abuchacra, Paula Ferreira Falheiro; Neto, José Antônio Baptista; Borges, Heloísa Vargas; de Oliveira, Vitor Calôr

    2016-11-01

    Total concentrations of Ni, Cr, Cu, Pb and Zn were determined in surface sediments from 30 stations in Guanabara Bay in 1999 and 2008. An approach using various environmental indices was used to assess contamination status of metals. This approach allowed the comparison with different coastal areas. Background Enrichment Index, Contamination index and Ecological Risk index (Pollution Load Index; Sediment Quality Guideline Quotient and Ecological Risk Index) were calculated for the metals. Results revealed a great load of organic matter and significant increases in Cu and Pb levels between 1999 and 2008. The concentrations of Cr and Zn were of great concern, surpassing the values of Probable Effect Level reference values. In spite of the differences of each index, results effectively revealed the striking contamination in Guanabara Bay concerning trace metals, and also suggested potential risk to local biota. The contamination of the northwest area was notably higher than the rest of the bay. In comparison with some other coastal bays around the world, Guanabara Bay stood out as a remarkably contaminated environment.

  4. Guidelines for the detection of high-risk lipoprotein profiles and the treatment of dyslipoproteinemias. Canadian Lipoprotein Conference Ad Hoc Committee on Guidelines for Dyslipoproteinemias.

    PubMed Central

    1990-01-01

    Elevated plasma levels of cholesterol and triglycerides, low levels of high-density lipoproteins, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, smoking and abdominal obesity are risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. Because of the preventable threat to life, well-being and productivity from perturbations of plasma lipoproteins (which affect about 60% of adults), we recommend a population-based strategy with public education on diet, exercise and the hazards of smoking and legislation for better food labelling. This should be combined with the medical guidelines we describe to detect and treat those at highest risk for CHD (including about 15% of adults), who merit priority for the medical, dietetic and laboratory services required. Among people aged 40 years or more this includes those with plasma total cholesterol levels greater than 7 mmol/L, fasting triglyceride levels greater than 3 mmol/L or cholesterol level greater than 6 mmol/L when associated with CHD or other risk factors for CHD. For younger people the criteria for highest risk include cholesterol levels greater than 6.5 mmol/L for those aged 30 to 39 years, greater than 6 mmol/L for those aged 20 to 29 and greater than 5 mmol/L for those under age 20. PMID:2190685

  5. An Interdisciplinary Approach to Volcanic Hazard Assessment, Risk Perception and Social Vulnerability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lechner, H. N.

    2011-12-01

    During a volcanic crisis there often exists a gap in communication among scientists, decision makers and members of the affected community. While the physical processes of these events are of scientific interest and may be well understood by the scientists involved, it is the communication of the risk and possible consequences to human population within the hazard zone that is most important during the actual time of a crisis. The use of hazard maps is often an integral tool employed by scientists to communicate risk to decision makers and the general public; unfortunately, in regions that are commonly affected by volcanic events, volcanic hazard maps may be too abstract for use by the general public. The objective of this paper is to open a discussion about an interdisciplinary approach to risk communication using a four-pronged methodology: 1) identification of multiple communities that have experienced a volcanic crisis over the last 20years and an examination of the events, decisions, responses and outcomes before, during and after; 2) participatory mapping and hazards assessments with community members and decision makers to define a community's geospatial orientation relative to the hazard source; 3) develop new or modify and incorporate existing hazard educational curricula; and 4) integrate a GIS and cartographic component that will produce quality maps that communicate both hazard and risk based on spatial and social variables. The long term goal is to develop a model that will allow us to effectively identify vulnerable populations, communicate risk and map both the hazard and the associated risk in a manner that can be interpreted at all levels in the decision making process.

  6. Environmental auditing: An approach for characterizing tropospheric ozone risk to forests

    SciTech Connect

    Hogsett, W.E.; Weber, J.E.; Tingey, D.; Herstrom, A.; Lee, E.H.; Laurence, J.A.

    1997-01-01

    The risk tropospheric ozone poses to forests in the United States dependents on the variation in ozone exposure across the forests and the various environmental and climate factors predominant in the region. All these factors have a spatial nature; an approach to characterization of ozone risk is presented that places ozone exposure-response functions for species as seedlings and model-simulated tree and stand responses in a spatial context using a geographical information systems (GIS). The GIS is used to aggregate factors considered important in a risk characterization: (1) estimated ozone exposures over forested regions, (2) measures of ozone effects on species` and stand growth, and (3) spatially distributed environmental, genetic, and exposure influences on species` response to ozone. The GIS-based risk characterization provides an estimation the extent and magnitude of the potential ozone impact on forests. A preliminary risk characterization demonstrating this considered only the eastern United States and only the limited empirical data quantifying the effect of ozone exposures on forest tree species as seedlings. The area-weighted response of the annual seedling biomass loss formed the basis for a sensitivity ranking: sensitive-aspen and black cherry (14%-33% biomass loss over 50% of their distribution); moderately sensitive-tulip popular, loblolly pine, eastern white pine, and sugar maple (5%-13% biomass loss); insensitive-Virginia pine and red maple (0%-1% loss). Future GIS-based risk characterizations will include process-based model simulations of the three- to 5-year growth response of individual species as large trees. The interactive nature of GIS provides a tool to explore consequences of the range of climate conditions across a species` distribution, forest management practices, changing ozone precursors, regulatory control strategies, and other factors influencing the spatial distribution of ozone over time. 43 refs., 11 figs., 3 tabs.

  7. An approach for the anticipatory and participatory management of current and future flood risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luther, J.

    2012-04-01

    Despite the fact that many measures to attenuate flood hazards and reduce vulnerabilities are being implemented, adverse effects of floods are ever-increasing in most parts of the world. On the one hand this holds true for economically and/or demographically growing regions. On the other hand this applies also to areas that face population shrinkage and economic problems. Such flood risks occur in human-environment systems and are subject to dynamics caused by a number of drivers such as climate change, land-use changes, and others. Many drivers evolve slowly over time or show time-lag effects and long return periods. Moreover, certain decisions may determine the control actions of the following decades. At present, current flood risks are mostly determined based on historic developments and the ex post analysis of flood events. Approaches that look at the future dynamics of both hazards and vulnerable elements ex ante in an integrated manner are rare. Instead, future hazard scenarios are often just overlaid with current socio-economic data, which poses a strong inconsistency. Usually the focus lies on rather short-term, specific or local problems. But many developments and measures show their effects only after long time periods and when considering the whole catchment area. This calls for a holistic and long-term view into the future and implies the challenge of dealing with many uncertainties due to the system's complexity. In order to anticipate and react to these developments, this contribution suggests developing a flexible, yet holistic approach to design, analyse and evaluate alternative futures of such human-environment systems. These futures follow a scenario understanding that considers both specific (current) factor constellations as well as consistent assumptions on autonomous developments (so-called development frameworks) and potentials for control (strategic alternatives) of the interacting entities that influence flood risk. Different scenario

  8. A genetic approach to stratification of risk for age-related macular degeneration.

    PubMed

    Zanke, Brent; Hawken, Steven; Carter, Ronald; Chow, David

    2010-02-01

    The genetic determinants of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) are reviewed and a novel approach to risk determination based upon inherited genetic polymorphisms and smoking history is presented. Although AMD was long thought to have primarily an environmental etiology, genetic variation is now known to account for the majority of the disease risk, with variations in the genes of the complement pathways playing a prominent role. Independent and validated clinical studies have implicated the C3 gene and its regulator, complement factor H (1q31.1), complement component 2 (6q21.33), and complement factor B (6q21.33). Subtle variations in complement activity increase the risk of symptomatic macular inflammation with age. A second group of AMD-associated genetic markers may aggravate complement-mediated inflammation by permitting retinal oxidative damage. Variation within the chromosomal site (10q26) coding a mitochondrial-associated protein (age-related maculopathy susceptibility 2) and an independent variation within the mitochondrial genome itself (A4917G) suggest a contributing pathophysiological role of retinal oxidative stress. A genetic panel of disease-susceptibility markers and smoking history can identify a group of individuals with greater than 65% lifetime risk of AMD. The introduction of genetic marker testing into clinical practice may identify patients with early disease who may be aided by presymptomatic monitoring or inclusion into trials of newer prophylactic agents.

  9. Modified approach to use of DOE-STD-3009 example risk matrices.

    SciTech Connect

    Atwood, Ginger A.

    2008-04-01

    DOE-STD-3009, Preparation Guide for US Department of Energy Non-reactor Nuclear Facilities Documented Safety Analyses, identifies a methodology for selection of high risk accidents and hazard scenarios for Hazard Category 1, 2, and 3 Nuclear Facilities and their controls. It provides examples of risk matrices which can be used as a part of this methodology. It also states, 'There is no one correct approach or presentation'. Sandia has used a modified version of these examples to focus control selection on controls that provide the highest risk to the public and the workers. Sandia's matrix assigns a lower risk level to high probability, low consequence events that are covered by institutional safety programs. The objective of this paper is to serve as a point of discussion on the benefits of using this modification to the DOE-STD-3009 examples. The paper relates to the workshop subtopic of Lessons Learned and Hazards Analysis since it provides lessons learned in hazard analysis process at SNL.

  10. Incorporation of a risk analysis approach for the nuclear fuel cycle advanced transparency framework.

    SciTech Connect

    Mendez, Carmen Margarita; York, David L.; Inoue, Naoko; Kitabata, Takuya; Vugrin, Eric D.; Vugrin, Kay White; Rochau, Gary Eugene; Cleary, Virginia D.

    2007-05-01

    Proliferation resistance features that reduce the likelihood of diversion of nuclear materials from the civilian nuclear power fuel cycle are critical for a global nuclear future. A framework that monitors process information continuously can demonstrate the ability to resist proliferation by measuring and reducing diversion risk, thus ensuring the legitimate use of the nuclear fuel cycle. The automation of new nuclear facilities requiring minimal manual operation makes this possible by generating instantaneous system state data that can be used to track and measure the status of the process and material at any given time. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) are working in cooperation to develop an advanced transparency framework capable of assessing diversion risk in support of overall plant transparency. The ''diversion risk'' quantifies the probability and consequence of a host nation diverting nuclear materials from a civilian fuel cycle facility. This document introduces the details of the diversion risk quantification approach to be demonstrated in the fuel handling training model of the MONJU Fast Reactor.

  11. Quantitative risk assessment for skin sensitisation: consideration of a simplified approach for hair dye ingredients.

    PubMed

    Goebel, Carsten; Diepgen, Thomas L; Krasteva, Maya; Schlatter, Harald; Nicolas, Jean-Francois; Blömeke, Brunhilde; Coenraads, Pieter Jan; Schnuch, Axel; Taylor, James S; Pungier, Jacquemine; Fautz, Rolf; Fuchs, Anne; Schuh, Werner; Gerberick, G Frank; Kimber, Ian

    2012-12-01

    With the availability of the local lymph node assay, and the ability to evaluate effectively the relative skin sensitizing potency of contact allergens, a model for quantitative-risk-assessment (QRA) has been developed. This QRA process comprises: (a) determination of a no-expected-sensitisation-induction-level (NESIL), (b) incorporation of sensitization-assessment-factors (SAFs) reflecting variations between subjects, product use patterns and matrices, and (c) estimation of consumer-exposure-level (CEL). Based on these elements an acceptable-exposure-level (AEL) can be calculated by dividing the NESIL of the product by individual SAFs. Finally, the AEL is compared with the CEL to judge about risks to human health. We propose a simplified approach to risk assessment of hair dye ingredients by making use of precise experimental product exposure data. This data set provides firmly established dose/unit area concentrations under relevant consumer use conditions referred to as the measured-exposure-level (MEL). For that reason a direct comparison is possible between the NESIL with the MEL as a proof-of-concept quantification of the risk of skin sensitization. This is illustrated here by reference to two specific hair dye ingredients p-phenylenediamine and resorcinol. Comparison of these robust and toxicologically relevant values is therefore considered an improvement versus a hazard-based classification of hair dye ingredients.

  12. A regional flux-based risk assessment approach for multiple contaminated sites on groundwater bodies.

    PubMed

    Jamin, P; Dollé, F; Chisala, B; Orban, Ph; Popescu, I-C; Hérivaux, C; Dassargues, A; Brouyère, S

    2012-01-01

    In the context of the Water Framework Directive (EP and CEU, 2000), management plans have to be set up to monitor and to maintain water quality in groundwater bodies in the EU. In heavily industrialized and urbanized areas, the cumulative effect of multiple contaminant sources is likely and has to be evaluated. In order to propose adequate measures, the calculated risk should be based on criteria reflecting the risk of groundwater quality deterioration, in a cumulative manner and at the scale of the entire groundwater body. An integrated GIS- and flux-based risk assessment approach for groundwater bodies is described, with a regional scale indicator for evaluating the quality status of the groundwater body. It is based on the SEQ-ESO currently used in the Walloon Region of Belgium which defines, for different water uses and for a detailed list of groundwater contaminants, a set of threshold values reflecting the levels of water quality and degradation with respect to each contaminant. The methodology is illustrated with first results at a regional scale on a groundwater body-scale application to a contaminated alluvial aquifer which has been classified to be at risk of not reaching a good quality status by 2015. These first results show that contaminants resulting from old industrial activities in that area are likely to contribute significantly to the degradation of groundwater quality. However, further investigations are required on the evaluation of the actual polluting pressures before any definitive conclusion be established.

  13. A Naive Bayes machine learning approach to risk prediction using censored, time-to-event data.

    PubMed

    Wolfson, Julian; Bandyopadhyay, Sunayan; Elidrisi, Mohamed; Vazquez-Benitez, Gabriela; Vock, David M; Musgrove, Donald; Adomavicius, Gediminas; Johnson, Paul E; O'Connor, Patrick J

    2015-09-20

    Predicting an individual's risk of experiencing a future clinical outcome is a statistical task with important consequences for both practicing clinicians and public health experts. Modern observational databases such as electronic health records provide an alternative to the longitudinal cohort studies traditionally used to construct risk models, bringing with them both opportunities and challenges. Large sample sizes and detailed covariate histories enable the use of sophisticated machine learning techniques to uncover complex associations and interactions, but observational databases are often 'messy', with high levels of missing data and incomplete patient follow-up. In this paper, we propose an adaptation of the well-known Naive Bayes machine learning approach to time-to-event outcomes subject to censoring. We compare the predictive performance of our method with the Cox proportional hazards model which is commonly used for risk prediction in healthcare populations, and illustrate its application to prediction of cardiovascular risk using an electronic health record dataset from a large Midwest integrated healthcare system.

  14. Baseline study and risk analysis of landfill leachate - Current state-of-the-science of computer aided approaches.

    PubMed

    Butt, T E; Alam, A; Gouda, H M; Paul, P; Mair, N

    2017-02-15

    For the successful completion of a risk analysis process, its foundation (i.e. a baseline study) has to be well established. For this purpose, a baseline study needs to be more integrated than ever, particularly when environmental legislation is increasingly becoming stringent and integrated. This research investigates and concludes that no clear evidence of computer models for baseline study has been found in a whole-system and integrated format, which risk assessors could readily and effectively use to underpin risk analyses holistically and yet specifically for landfill leachate. This is established on the basis of investigation of software packages that are particularly closely related to landfills. Holistic baseline study is also defined along with its implications and in the context of risk assessment of landfill leachate. The study also indicates a number of factors and features that need to be added to baseline study in order to render it more integrated thereby enhancing risk analyses for landfill leachate.

  15. Hazard and risk assessment of chemical mixtures using the toxic equivalency factor approach.

    PubMed Central

    Safe, S H

    1998-01-01

    There is considerable public, regulatory, and scientific concern regarding human exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals, which include compounds that directly modulate steroid hormone receptor pathways (estrogens, antiestrogens, androgens, antiandrogens) and aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) agonists, including 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) and related compounds. Based on quantitative structure-activity relationships for both AhR and estrogen receptor (ER) agonists, the relative potency (RP) of individual compounds relative to a standard (e.g. TCDD and 17-beta-estradiol) have been determined for several receptor-mediated responses. Therefore, the TCDD or estrogenic equivalent (TEQ or EQ, respectively) of a mixture is defined as TEQ = sigma[T(i)]xRP(i)or EQ=sigma[E(i)]xRP(i), where T(i) and E(i) are concentrations of individual AhR or ER agonists in any mixture. This approach for risk assessment of endocrine-disrupting mixtures assumes that for each endocrine response pathway, the effects of individual compounds are essentially additive. This paper will critically examine the utility of the TEQ/EQ approach for risk assessment, the validity of the assumptions used for this approach, and the problems associated with comparing low dose exposures to xeno and natural (dietary) endocrine disruptors. PMID:9703492

  16. Adherence to the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) and risk of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

    PubMed

    Hekmatdoost, Azita; Shamsipour, Ali; Meibodi, Mohammad; Gheibizadeh, Newsha; Eslamparast, Tannaz; Poustchi, Hossein

    2016-12-01

    This case-control study was conducted to examine the association between adherence to the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet and risk of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) development in 102 patients with newly diagnosed NAFLD and 204 controls. Adherence to DASH-style diet was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire, and a DASH diet score based on food and nutrients emphasized or minimized in the DASH diet. Participants in the top quartile of DASH diet score were 30% less likely to have NAFLD (OR: 0.0.70; 95% CI: 0.61, 0.80); however, more adjustment for dyslipidemia and body mass index changed the association to non-significant (OR: 0.92; 95% CI: 0.73, 1.12). In conclusion, we found an inverse relationship between the DASH-style diet and risk of NAFLD. Prospective studies are needed to confirm this association.

  17. AdS duals of matrix strings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morales, Jose F.; Samtleben, Henning

    2003-06-01

    We review recent work on the holographic duals of type II and heterotic matrix string theories described by warped AdS3 supergravities. In particular, we compute the spectra of Kaluza-Klein primaries for type I, II supergravities on warped AdS3 × S7 and match them with the primary operators in the dual two-dimensional gauge theories. The presence of non-trivial warp factors and dilaton profiles requires a modification of the familiar dictionary between masses and 'scaling' dimensions of fields and operators. We present these modifications for the general case of domain wall/QFT correspondences between supergravities on warped AdSd+1 × Sq geometries and super Yang-Mills theories with 16 supercharges.

  18. A systematic conservation planning approach to fire risk management in Natura 2000 sites.

    PubMed

    Foresta, Massimiliano; Carranza, Maria Laura; Garfì, Vittorio; Di Febbraro, Mirko; Marchetti, Marco; Loy, Anna

    2016-10-01

    A primary challenge in conservation biology is to preserve the most representative biodiversity while simultaneously optimizing the efforts associated with conservation. In Europe, the implementation of the Natura 2000 network requires protocols to recognize and map threats to biodiversity and to identify specific mitigation actions. We propose a systematic conservation planning approach to optimize management actions against specific threats based on two fundamental parameters: biodiversity values and threat pressure. We used the conservation planning software Marxan to optimize a fire management plan in a Natura 2000 coastal network in southern Italy. We address three primary questions: i) Which areas are at high fire risk? ii) Which areas are the most valuable for threatened biodiversity? iii) Which areas should receive priority risk-mitigation actions for the optimal effect?, iv) which fire-prevention actions are feasible in the management areas?. The biodiversity values for the Natura 2000 spatial units were derived from the distribution maps of 18 habitats and 89 vertebrate species of concern in Europe (Habitat Directive 92/43/EEC). The threat pressure map, defined as fire probability, was obtained from digital layers of fire risk and of fire frequency. Marxan settings were defined as follows: a) planning units of 40 × 40 m, b) conservation features defined as all habitats and vertebrate species of European concern occurring in the study area, c) conservation targets defined according with fire sensitivity and extinction risk of conservation features, and d) costs determined as the complement of fire probabilities. We identified 23 management areas in which to concentrate efforts for the optimal reduction of fire-induced effects. Because traditional fire prevention is not feasible for most of policy habitats included in the management areas, alternative prevention practices were identified that allows the conservation of the vegetation structure. The

  19. A Review of the Field on Children's Exposure to Environmental Contaminants: A Risk Assessment Approach.

    PubMed

    Ferguson, Alesia; Penney, Rosalind; Solo-Gabriele, Helena

    2017-03-04

    Background: Children must be recognized as a sensitive population based on having biological systems and organs in various stages of development. The processes of absorption, distribution, metabolism and elimination of environmental contaminants within a child's body are considered less advanced than those of adults, making them more susceptible to disease outcomes following even small doses. Children's unique activities of crawling and practicing increased hand-to-mouth ingestion also make them vulnerable to greater exposures by certain contaminants within specific environments. Approach: There is a need to review the field of children's environmental exposures in order to understand trends and identify gaps in research, which may lead to better protection of this vulnerable and sensitive population. Therefore, explored here are previously published contemporary works in the broad area of children's environmental exposures and potential impact on health from around the world. A discussion of children's exposure to environmental contaminants is best organized under the last four steps of a risk assessment approach: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment (including children's activity patterns) and risk characterization. We first consider the many exposure hazards that exist in the indoor and outdoor environments, and emerging contaminants of concern that may help guide the risk assessment process in identifying focus areas for children. A section on special diseases of concern is also included. Conclusions: The field of children's exposures to environmental contaminants is broad. Although there are some well-studied areas offering much insight into children exposures, research is still needed to further our understanding of exposures to newer compounds, growing disease trends and the role of gene-environment interactions that modify adverse health outcomes. It is clear that behaviors of adults and children play a role in reducing or

  20. Methodological Approaches to Evaluate Teratogenic Risk Using Birth Defect Registries: Advantages and Disadvantages

    PubMed Central

    Poletta, Fernando A.; López Camelo, Jorge S.; Gili, Juan A.; Leoncini, Emmanuele; Castilla, Eduardo E.; Mastroiacovo, Pierpaolo

    2012-01-01

    Background Different approaches have been used in case-control studies to estimate maternal exposure to medications and the risk of birth defects. However, the performance of these approaches and how they affect the odds ratio (OR) estimates have not been evaluated using birth-defect surveillance programmes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the scope and limitations of three case-control approaches to assess the teratogenic risk of birth defects in mothers exposed to antiepileptic medications, insulin, or acetaminophen. Methodology/Principal Findings We studied 110,814 non-malformed newborns and 58,514 live newborns with birth defects registered by the Latin American Collaborative Study of Congenital Anomalies (ECLAMC) between 1967 and 2008. Four controls were randomly selected for each case in the same hospital and period, and three different control groups were used: non-malformed newborns (HEALTHY), malformed newborns (SICK), and a subgroup of SICK, only-exposed cases (OECA). Associations were evaluated using OR and Pearson's chi-square (P<0.01). There were no concordance correlations between the HEALTHY and OECA designs, and the average OR differences ranged from 3.0 to 11.5 for the three evaluated medicines. The overestimations observed for HEALTHY design were increased as higher OR values were given, with a high and statistically significant correlation between the difference and the mean. On the contrary, the concordance correlations obtained between the SICK and OECA designs were quite good, with no significant differences in the average risks. Conclusions The HEALTHY design estimates the true population OR, but shows a high rate of false-positive results presumably caused by differential misclassification bias. This bias decreases with the increase of the proportion of exposed controls. SICK and OECA odds ratios cannot be considered a direct estimate of the true population OR except under certain conditions. However, the SICK and OECA designs could

  1. Application of elements of microbiological risk assessment in the food industry via a tiered approach.

    PubMed

    van Gerwen, Suzanne J C; Gorris, Leon G M

    2004-09-01

    Food safety control is a matter for concern for all parts of the food supply chain, including governments that develop food safety policy, food industries that must control potential hazards, and consumers who need to keep to the intended use of the food. In the future, food safety policy may be set using the framework of risk analysis, part of which is the development of (inter)national microbiological risk assessment (MRA) studies. MRA studies increase our understanding of the impact of risk management interventions and of the relationships among subsequent parts of food supply chains with regard to the safety of the food when it reaches the consumer. Application of aspects of MRA in the development of new food concepts has potential benefits for the food industry. A tiered approach to applying MRA can best realize these benefits. The tiered MRA approach involves calculation of microbial fate for a product and process design on the basis of experimental data (e.g., monitoring data on prevalence) and predictive microbiological models. Calculations on new product formulations and novel processing technologies provide improved understanding of microbial fate beyond currently known boundaries, which enables identification of new opportunities in process design. The outcome of the tiered approach focuses on developing benchmarks of potential consumer exposure to hazards associated with new products by comparison with exposure associated with products that are already on the market and have a safe history of use. The tiered prototype is a tool to be used by experienced microbiologists as a basis for advice to product developers and can help to make safety assurance for new food concepts transparent to food inspection services.

  2. Reassessing the Association between WIC and Birth Outcomes Using a Fetuses-at-Risk Approach.

    PubMed

    Fingar, Kathryn R; Lob, Sibylle H; Dove, Melanie S; Gradziel, Pat; Curtis, Michael P

    2017-04-01

    Objectives Women with longer, healthier pregnancies have more time to enroll in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), biasing associations between WIC and birth outcomes. We examined the association between WIC and preterm birth (PTB), low birth weight (LBW), and perinatal death (PND) using a fetuses-at-risk approach to address this bias, termed gestational age bias. Methods We linked California Medi-Cal recipients with a singleton live birth or fetal death from the 2010 Birth Cohort to WIC participant data (n = 236,564). We implemented a fetuses-at-risk approach using survival analysis, which compared, in each week of gestation, women whose pregnancies reached the same length and who had the same opportunity to utilize WIC. In each gestational week, we assessed WIC enrollment and the number of food packages redeemed thus far and computed hazard ratios (HR) using survival models with time-varying exposures and effects. Results Adjusting for maternal socio-demographic and health characteristics, WIC enrollment was associated with a lower risk of PTB from week 29-36 (HR29 = 0.71; HR36 = 0.52); LBW from week 26-40 (HR26 = 0.77; HR40 = 0.64); and PND from week 29-43 (HR29 = 0.78; HR43 = 0.69) (p < 0.05). The number of food packages redeemed was associated with a lower risk of PTB from week 27-36 (HR27 = 0.90; HR36 = 0.84); LBW from week 25-42 (HR25 = 0.93; HR42 = 0.88); and PND from week 27-46 (HR27 = 0.94; HR46 = 0.91) (p < 0.05). Conclusions for Practice To our knowledge this is the first study to examine the association between WIC and birth outcomes using this approach. We found that beginning from about 29 weeks, WIC enrollment was associated with a reduced risk of PTB by 29-48 %, LBW by 23-36 %, and PND by 22-31 %.

  3. Fuzzy logic and a risk-based graded approach for developing S/RIDs: An introduction

    SciTech Connect

    Wayland, J.R.

    1996-01-01

    A Standards/Requirements Identification Document (S/RID) is the set of expressed performance expectations, or standards, for a facility. Critical to the development of an integrated standards-based management is the identification of a set of necessary and sufficient standards from a selected set of standards/requirements. There is a need for a formal, rigorous selection process for the S/RIDs. This is the first of three reports that develop a fuzzy logic selection process. In this report the fundamentals of fuzzy logic are discussed as they apply to a risk-based graded approach.

  4. On Value at Risk for Foreign Exchange Rates --- the Copula Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaworski, P.

    2006-11-01

    The aim of this paper is to determine the Value at Risk (VaR) of the portfolio consisting of long positions in foreign currencies on an emerging market. Basing on empirical data we restrict ourselves to the case when the tail parts of distributions of logarithmic returns of these assets follow the power laws and the lower tail of associated copula C follows the power law of degree 1. We will illustrate the practical usefulness of this approach by the analysis of the exchange rates of EUR and CHF at the Polish forex market.

  5. Application impact analysis: a risk-based approach to business continuity and disaster recovery.

    PubMed

    Epstein, Beth; Khan, Dawn Christine

    2014-01-01

    There are many possible disruptions that can occur in business. Overlooking or under planning for Business Continuity requires time, understanding and careful planning. Business Continuity Management is far more than producing a document and declaring business continuity success. What is the recipe for businesses to achieve continuity management success? Application Impact Analysis is a method for understanding the unique Business Attributes. This AIA Cycle involves a risk based approach to understanding the business priority and considering business aspects such as Financial, Operational, Service Structure, Contractual Legal, and Brand. The output of this analysis provides a construct for viewing data, evaluating impact, and delivering results, for an approved valuation of Recovery Time Objectives (RTO).

  6. A novel approach to evaluate the permeability of cake layer during cross-flow filtration in the flocculants added membrane bioreactors.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Hanmin; Gao, Jifeng; Jiang, Tao; Gao, Dawen; Zhang, Shurong; Li, Hongyan; Yang, Fenglin

    2011-12-01

    In order to obtain a better understanding of the cake layer formation mechanism in the flocculants added MBRs, a model was developed on the basis of particle packing model considering cake collapse effect and a frictional force balance equation to predict the porosity and permeability of the cake layers. The important characteristic parameters of the flocs (e.g., floc size, fractal dimensions) and operating parameters of MBRs (e.g., transmembrane pressure, cross-flow velocity) are considered in this model. With this new model, the calculated results of porosities and specific cake resistances under different MBR operational conditions agree fairly well with the experimental data.

  7. Approaches to Quality Risk Management When Using Single-Use Systems in the Manufacture of Biologics.

    PubMed

    Ishii-Watabe, Akiko; Hirose, Akihiko; Katori, Noriko; Hashii, Norikata; Arai, Susumu; Awatsu, Hirotoshi; Eiza, Akira; Hara, Yoshiaki; Hattori, Hideshi; Inoue, Tomomi; Isono, Tetsuya; Iwakura, Masahiro; Kajihara, Daisuke; Kasahara, Nobuo; Matsuda, Hiroyuki; Murakami, Sei; Nakagawa, Taishiro; Okumura, Takehiro; Omasa, Takeshi; Takuma, Shinya; Terashima, Iyo; Tsukahara, Masayoshi; Tsutsui, Maiko; Yano, Takahiro; Kawasaki, Nana

    2015-10-01

    Biologics manufacturing technology has made great progress in the last decade. One of the most promising new technologies is the single-use system, which has improved the efficiency of biologics manufacturing processes. To ensure safety of biologics when employing such single-use systems in the manufacturing process, various issues need to be considered including possible extractables/leachables and particles arising from the components used in single-use systems. Japanese pharmaceutical manufacturers, together with single-use suppliers, members of the academia and regulatory authorities have discussed the risks of using single-use systems and established control strategies for the quality assurance of biologics. In this study, we describe approaches for quality risk management when employing single-use systems in the manufacturing of biologics. We consider the potential impact of impurities related to single-use components on drug safety and the potential impact of the single-use system on other critical quality attributes as well as the stable supply of biologics. We also suggest a risk-mitigating strategy combining multiple control methods which includes the selection of appropriate single-use components, their inspections upon receipt and before releasing for use and qualification of single-use systems. Communication between suppliers of single-use systems and the users, as well as change controls in the facilities both of suppliers and users, are also important in risk-mitigating strategies. Implementing these control strategies can mitigate the risks attributed to the use of single-use systems. This study will be useful in promoting the development of biologics as well as in ensuring their safety, quality and stable supply.

  8. TERRORIST PROTECTION PLANNING USING A RELATIVE RISK REDUCTION APPROACH, SESSION VIII: TECHNOLOGY FORUM FOCUS GROUPS.

    SciTech Connect

    INDUSI,J.P.

    2003-06-16

    Since the events of 9/11, there have been considerable concerns and associated efforts to prevent or respond to acts of terrorism. Very often we hear calls to reduce the threat from or correct vulnerabilities to various terrorist acts. Others fall victim to anxiety over potential scenarios with the gravest of consequences involving hundreds of thousands of casualties. The problem is complicated by the fact that planners have limited, albeit in some cases significant, resources and less than perfect intelligence on potential terrorist plans. However, valuable resources must be used prudently to reduce the overall risk to the nation. A systematic approach to this process of asset allocation is to reduce the overall risk and not just an individual element of risk such as vulnerabilities. Hence, we define risk as a function of three variables: the threat (the likelihood and scenario of the terrorist act), the vulnerability (the vulnerability of potential targets to the threat), and the consequences (health and safety, economic, etc.) resulting from a successful terrorist scenario. Both the vulnerability and consequences from a postulated adversary scenario can be reasonably well estimated. However, the threat likelihood and scenarios are much more difficult to estimate. A possible path forward is to develop scenarios for each potential target in question using experts from many disciplines. This should yield a finite but large number of target-scenario pairs. The vulnerabilities and consequences for each are estimated and then ranked relative to one another. The resulting relative risk ranking will have targets near the top of the ranking for which the threat is estimated to be more likely, the vulnerability greatest, and the consequences the most grave. In the absence of perfect intelligence, this may be the best we can do.

  9. An innovative approach to treating combat veterans with PTSD at risk for suicide.

    PubMed

    Hendin, Herbert

    2014-10-01

    Suicide rates among military personnel had a significant drop in 2013, but there is no evidence of a drop among veterans. The problem of suicide among combat veterans with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) remains a source of concern. The Department of Defense and the Department of Veterans Affairs are now calling for innovative treatment approaches to the problem. A short-term psychodynamic therapy presented here may be able to fill that need by dissipating the guilt from veterans' combat-related actions that leads to suicidal behavior. The treatment showed promise of success with veterans of the war in Vietnam. Preliminary work with combat veterans of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan indicates that it may be equally successful in treating them. Basic aspects of the psychodynamic approach could be incorporated into current therapies and should improve their ability to treat veterans with PTSD at risk for suicide.

  10. Dependence and risk assessment for oil prices and exchange rate portfolios: A wavelet based approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania

    2015-10-01

    In this article, we propose a wavelet-based approach to accommodate the stylized facts and complex structure of financial data, caused by frequent and abrupt changes of markets and noises. Specifically, we show how the combination of both continuous and discrete wavelet transforms with traditional financial models helps improve portfolio's market risk assessment. In the empirical stage, three wavelet-based models (wavelet-EGARCH with dynamic conditional correlations, wavelet-copula, and wavelet-extreme value) are considered and applied to crude oil price and US dollar exchange rate data. Our findings show that the wavelet-based approach provides an effective and powerful tool for detecting extreme moments and improving the accuracy of VaR and Expected Shortfall estimates of oil-exchange rate portfolios after noise is removed from the original data.

  11. Ductal approaches to assessment and management of women at high risk for developing breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Locke, Imogen; Mitchell, Gillian; Eeles, Rosalind

    2004-01-01

    The ductal approach to breast cancer, encompassing nipple aspiration, ductal lavage and duct endoscopy, allows assessment of breast ductal epithelial cells and their local microenvironment in a graded process of increasing invasiveness. Samples of ductal epithelial cells sufficient for cytological diagnosis may be safely collected, titres of individual proteins showing variation with breast cancer status may be measured, and abnormal pathology within the breast ducts may be directly visualized. Identification of surrogate molecular markers may facilitate early breast cancer detection, in conjunction with cytological assessment, and be useful for individual prediction of breast cancer risk and assessment of treatment response. However, the sensitivity and specificity of the ductal approach require further evaluation. The small quantities of nipple aspiration fluid available for analysis, and difficulties identifying and cannulating ducts remain important limitations of these techniques. PMID:14979910

  12. Achieving continuous improvement in reductions in foodborne listeriosis--a risk-based approach.

    PubMed

    2005-09-01

    Listeria monocytogenes is a foodborne pathogen that can cause listeriosis, a severe disease that can lead to septicemia, meningitis, and spontaneous abortion. Ongoing efforts are needed to further reduce the incidence of listeriosis, due to its high mortality rate. The focus of this report is the use of a risk-based approach to identify strategies that will have the greatest impact on reducing foodborne listeriosis. A continuum of risk for listeriosis is observed in the human population, ranging from exquisitely sensitive groups, who are highly immunocompromised and at very high risk of listeriosis, through the normal healthy population younger than 65 years of age, who appear to have a minimal risk for listeriosis. In addition, unique subpopulations may exist; for example, pregnant Latina women appear to have a higher risk of listeriosis than pregnant women of other ethnic groups, most likely due to consumption of contaminated soft cheeses such as queso fresco and queso blanco. The International Life Sciences Institute Risk Science Institute Expert Panel concluded that certain foods pose a high risk for causing listeriosis. High-risk foods have all of the following properties: (1) have the potential for contamination with L. monocytogenes; (2) support the growth of L. monocytogenes to high numbers; (3) are ready to eat; (4) require refrigeration; and (5) are stored for an extended period of time. Control strategies are needed in the food chain from preharvest through consumption to minimize the likelihood that food will become contaminated by L. monocytogenes and to prevent the growth of the organism to high numbers. The Expert Panel identified three main strategies for ensuring continuous improvement in reducing foodborne listeriosis: (1) preventing contamination of foods with L. monocytogenes; (2) preventing growth of L. monocytogenes to high numbers in foods; and (3) science-based education messages targeted to susceptible populations and their caregivers. Of

  13. A tiered risk-based approach for predicting diffuse and point source phosphorus losses in agricultural areas.

    PubMed

    Heathwaite, A L; Dils, R M; Liu, S; Carvalho, L; Brazier, R E; Pope, L; Hughes, M; Phillips, G; May, L

    2005-05-15

    Implementation of the European Union Water Framework Directive requires an assessment of the pressures from human activity, which, combined with information on the sensitivity of the receiving waterbody to the pressures, will identify those water bodies at risk of failing to meet the Directive's environmental objectives. Part of the process of undertaking the risk assessment for lakes is an assessment of diffuse agricultural phosphorus (P) pressures. Three approaches of increasing sophistication were developed for this purpose: a basic 'risk screening' approach (tier 1) applicable to all lakes in Great Britain (GB) and based on export coefficients for different land cover classes and animal types; the Pressure Delivery Risk Screening Matrix approach (tier 2) that differentiated between pressures in surface water and groundwater river basins; and the Phosphorus Indicators Tool (PIT), a simple model of locational risk and P delivery potential (tier 3). Application of the three approaches to a range of lake catchments in England demonstrated that a tiered risk assessment approach was appropriate which was tailored to the quality of the available data. A step-wise procedure was developed whereby if the tier 1 and 2 approaches showed a catchment to be at high risk of failing to meet the Directive's environmental objectives with regard to P, it was justifiable to undertake a more detailed assessment using the tier 3 approach. The tier 1 approach was applied to all lakes in GB greater than 1 ha in size on the assumption that the boundary between the good/moderate status classes under the Water Framework Directive guidelines represented a doubling of the total P (TP) reference conditions. The initial outputs suggested that 51% of lakes in GB are predicted to not meet the TP targets identified for high or good status and must, therefore, be considered at risk. There were regional differences in numbers of lakes at risk. Scotland appeared to have the fewest sites at risk (18

  14. [Application of risk-based approach for determination of critical factors in technology transfer of production of medicinal products].

    PubMed

    Beregovykh, V V; Spitskiy, O R

    2014-01-01

    Risk-based approach is used for examination of impact of different factors on quality of medicinal products in technology transfer. A general diagram is offered for risk analysis execution in technology transfer from pharmaceutical development to production. When transferring technology to full- scale commercial production it is necessary to investigate and simulate production process application beforehand in new real conditions. The manufacturing process is the core factorfor risk analysis having the most impact on quality attributes of a medicinal product. Further importantfactors are linked to materials and products to be handled and manufacturing environmental conditions such as premises, equipment and personnel. Usage of risk-based approach in designing of multipurpose production facility of medicinal products is shown where quantitative risk analysis tool RAMM (Risk Analysis and Mitigation Matrix) was applied.

  15. The generalized added mass revised

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Wilde, Juray

    2007-05-01

    The reformulation of the generalized or apparent added mass presented by De Wilde [Phys. Fluids 17, 113304 (2005)] neglects the presence of a drag-type force in the gas and solid phase momentum equations. Reformulating the generalized added mass accounting for the presence of a drag-type force, an apparent drag force appears next to the apparent distribution of the filtered gas phase pressure gradient over the phases already found by De Wilde in the above-cited reference. The reformulation of the generalized added mass and the evaluation of a linear wave propagation speed test then suggest a generalized added mass type closure approach to completely describe filtered gas-solid momentum transfer, that is, including both the filtered drag force and the correlation between the solid volume fraction and the gas phase pressure gradient.

  16. An ultra-wide bandwidth-based range/GPS tight integration approach for relative positioning in vehicular ad hoc networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Feng; Wayn Cheong, Joon; Dempster, Andrew G.

    2015-04-01

    Relative position awareness is a vital premise for the implementation of emerging intelligent transportation systems, such as collision warning. However, commercial global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) receivers do not satisfy the requirements of these applications. Fortunately, cooperative positioning (CP) techniques, through sharing the GNSS measurements between vehicles, can improve the performance of relative positioning in a vehicular ad hoc network (VANET). In this paper, while assuming there are no obstacles between vehicles, a new enhanced tightly coupled CP technique is presented by adding ultra-wide bandwidth (UWB)-based inter-vehicular range measurements. In the proposed CP method, each vehicle fuses the GPS measurements and the inter-vehicular range measurements. Based on analytical and experimental results, in the full GPS coverage environment, the new tight integration CP method outperforms the INS-aided tight CP method, tight CP method, and DGPS by 11%, 15%, and 24%, respectively; in the GPS outage scenario, the performance improvement achieves 60%, 65%, and 73%, respectively.

  17. Reconstruction of flood events based on documentary data and transnational flood risk analysis of the Upper Rhine and its French and German tributaries since AD 1480

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Himmelsbach, I.; Glaser, R.; Schoenbein, J.; Riemann, D.; Martin, B.

    2015-10-01

    This paper presents the long-term analysis of flood occurrence along the southern part of the Upper Rhine River system and of 14 of its tributaries in France and Germany covering the period starting from 1480 BC. Special focus is given on the temporal and spatial variations of flood events and their underlying meteorological causes over time. Examples are presented of how long-term information about flood events and knowledge about the historical aspect of flood protection in a given area can help to improve the understanding of risk analysis and therefor transnational risk management. Within this context, special focus is given to flood vulnerability while comparing selected historical and modern extreme events, establishing a common evaluation scheme. The transnational aspect becomes especially evident analyzing the tributaries: on this scale, flood protection developed impressively different on the French and German sides. We argue that comparing high technological standards of flood protection, which were initiated by the dukes of Baden on the German side starting in the early 19th century, misled people to the common belief that the mechanical means of flood protection like dams and barrages can guarantee the security from floods and their impacts. This lead to widespread settlements and the establishment of infrastructure as well as modern industries in potentially unsafe areas until today. The legal status in Alsace on the French side of the Rhine did not allow for continuous flood protection measurements, leading to a constant - and probably at last annoying - reminder that the floodplains are a potentially unsafe place to be. From a modern perspective of flood risk management, this leads to a significant lower aggregation of value in the floodplains of the small rivers in Alsace compared to those on the Baden side - an interesting fact - especially if the modern European Flood directive is taken into account.

  18. [Usability first. Model-based approach for the use-oriented risk analysis of medical devices].

    PubMed

    Janß, A; Radermacher, K

    2014-12-01

    Due to increasing automation, the number and complexity of technical components have increased in the medical context (e.g., in the clinic or in the home care sector) in recent years. Besides new effective and efficient therapeutic and diagnostic options, these devices entail a wide range of functions and very complex (often computer-based) user interfaces that may lead to human-induced risk potential. A systematic and early human risk analysis and a usability evaluation allow medical device manufacturers to identify and control risks within the human-machine interaction very efficiently. At the Department of Medical Engineering in the Helmholtz Institute for Biomedical Engineering at the RWTH Aachen University, a formal-analytical methodology and a corresponding software tool for prospective human-risk analysis and model-based usability evaluation has been developed. Based on a twofold approach, user interactive process sequences and their potential impacts on the overall process are identified and the resulting use-related risks are assessed. For this, the tasks are categorized (in system and user tasks) and modeled and temporally related within the framework of a high-level task analysis. Within a subsequent cognitive low-level task analysis, potentially critical parallel process sequences are then tested in order to detect a potential resource overload of the user. The subsequent corresponding human-risk analysis is developed according to a knowledge base (checklist) of taxonomies related to human error. The HiFEM (human-function effect modeling) methodology is universally applicable and can be used for the evaluation of human-computer interfaces as well as for the analysis of purely mechanical control interfaces and simple hand-held instruments (such as a scalpel and implant). In a comparative study, the HiFEM method clearly outperforms the classic FMEA (failure modes and effects analysis) process with regard to effectiveness, efficiency, learnability, and

  19. Promoting Service User Inclusion in Risk Assessment and Management: A Pilot Project Developing a Human Rights-Based Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greenhill, Beth; Whitehead, Richard

    2011-01-01

    Recent reports highlight the extent to which many people with learning disabilities are not afforded access to their basic human rights. In addition, traditional approaches to risk management often focus on professional assessments of risks and challenging behaviour and exclude service user perspectives. In this paper, we outline what we believe…

  20. 12 CFR Appendix C to Part 567 - Risk-Based Capital Requirements-Internal-Ratings-Based and Advanced Measurement Approaches

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Risk-Based Capital Requirements-Internal-Ratings-Based and Advanced Measurement Approaches C Appendix C to Part 567 Banks and Banking OFFICE OF THRIFT SUPERVISION, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY CAPITAL Pt. 567, App. C Appendix C to Part 567—Risk-Based Capital Requirements—Internal-Ratings-Based...

  1. 12 CFR Appendix C to Part 167 - Risk-Based Capital Requirements-Internal-Ratings-Based and Advanced Measurement Approaches

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Risk-Based Capital Requirements-Internal-Ratings-Based and Advanced Measurement Approaches C Appendix C to Part 167 Banks and Banking COMPTROLLER OF THE CURRENCY, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY CAPITAL Pt. 167, App. C Appendix C to Part 167—Risk-Based Capital Requirements—Internal-Ratings-Based...

  2. 12 CFR Appendix C to Part 567 - Risk-Based Capital Requirements-Internal-Ratings-Based and Advanced Measurement Approaches

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2013-01-01 2012-01-01 true Risk-Based Capital Requirements-Internal-Ratings-Based and Advanced Measurement Approaches C Appendix C to Part 567 Banks and Banking OFFICE OF THRIFT SUPERVISION, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY CAPITAL Pt. 567, App. C Appendix C to Part 567—Risk-Based Capital Requirements—Internal-Ratings-Based...

  3. 12 CFR Appendix C to Part 567 - Risk-Based Capital Requirements-Internal-Ratings-Based and Advanced Measurement Approaches

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Risk-Based Capital Requirements-Internal-Ratings-Based and Advanced Measurement Approaches C Appendix C to Part 567 Banks and Banking OFFICE OF THRIFT SUPERVISION, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY CAPITAL Pt. 567, App. C Appendix C to Part 567—Risk-Based Capital Requirements—Internal-Ratings-Based...

  4. 12 CFR Appendix C to Part 167 - Risk-Based Capital Requirements-Internal-Ratings-Based and Advanced Measurement Approaches

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Risk-Based Capital Requirements-Internal-Ratings-Based and Advanced Measurement Approaches C Appendix C to Part 167 Banks and Banking COMPTROLLER OF THE CURRENCY, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY CAPITAL Pt. 167, App. C Appendix C to Part 167—Risk-Based Capital Requirements—Internal-Ratings-Based...

  5. Effect of Adding McKenzie Syndrome, Centralization, Directional Preference, and Psychosocial Classification Variables to a Risk-Adjusted Model Predicting Functional Status Outcomes for Patients With Lumbar Impairments.

    PubMed

    Werneke, Mark W; Edmond, Susan; Deutscher, Daniel; Ward, Jason; Grigsby, David; Young, Michelle; McGill, Troy; McClenahan, Brian; Weinberg, Jon; Davidow, Amy L

    2016-09-01

    Study Design Retrospective cohort. Background Patient-classification subgroupings may be important prognostic factors explaining outcomes. Objectives To determine effects of adding classification variables (McKenzie syndrome and pain patterns, including centralization and directional preference; Symptom Checklist Back Pain Prediction Model [SCL BPPM]; and the Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire subscales of work and physical activity) to a baseline risk-adjusted model predicting functional status (FS) outcomes. Methods Consecutive patients completed a battery of questionnaires that gathered information on 11 risk-adjustment variables. Physical therapists trained in Mechanical Diagnosis and Therapy methods classified each patient by McKenzie syndromes and pain pattern. Functional status was assessed at discharge by patient-reported outcomes. Only patients with complete data were included. Risk of selection bias was assessed. Prediction of discharge FS was assessed using linear stepwise regression models, allowing 13 variables to enter the model. Significant variables were retained in subsequent models. Model power (R(2)) and beta coefficients for model variables were estimated. Results Two thousand sixty-six patients with lumbar impairments were evaluated. Of those, 994 (48%), 10 (<1%), and 601 (29%) were excluded due to incomplete psychosocial data, McKenzie classification data, and missing FS at discharge, respectively. The final sample for analyses was 723 (35%). Overall R(2) for the baseline prediction FS model was 0.40. Adding classification variables to the baseline model did not result in significant increases in R(2). McKenzie syndrome or pain pattern explained 2.8% and 3.0% of the variance, respectively. When pain pattern and SCL BPPM were added simultaneously, overall model R(2) increased to 0.44. Although none of these increases in R(2) were significant, some classification variables were stronger predictors compared with some other variables included in

  6. New approaches to uncertainty analysis for use in aggregate and cumulative risk assessment of pesticides.

    PubMed

    Kennedy, Marc C; van der Voet, Hilko; Roelofs, Victoria J; Roelofs, Willem; Glass, C Richard; de Boer, Waldo J; Kruisselbrink, Johannes W; Hart, Andy D M

    2015-05-01

    Risk assessments for human exposures to plant protection products (PPPs) have traditionally focussed on single routes of exposure and single compounds. Extensions to estimate aggregate (multi-source) and cumulative (multi-compound) exposure from PPPs present many new challenges and additional uncertainties that should be addressed as part of risk analysis and decision-making. A general approach is outlined for identifying and classifying the relevant uncertainties and variabilities. The implementation of uncertainty analysis within the MCRA software, developed as part of the EU-funded ACROPOLIS project to address some of these uncertainties, is demonstrated. An example is presented for dietary and non-dietary exposures to the triazole class of compounds. This demonstrates the chaining of models, linking variability and uncertainty generated from an external model for bystander exposure with variability and uncertainty in MCRA dietary exposure assessments. A new method is also presented for combining pesticide usage survey information with limited residue monitoring data, to address non-detect uncertainty. The results show that incorporating usage information reduces uncertainty in parameters of the residue distribution but that in this case quantifying uncertainty is not a priority, at least for UK grown crops. A general discussion of alternative approaches to treat uncertainty, either quantitatively or qualitatively, is included.

  7. Anterior Approach Total Ankle Arthroplasty: Superficial Peroneal Nerve Branches at Risk.

    PubMed

    McAlister, Jeffrey E; DeMill, Shyler L; Hyer, Christopher F; Berlet, Gregory C

    2016-01-01

    In ankle arthroplasty, little attention has been given to intraoperative nerve injury and its postoperative sequelae. The aim of the present anatomic study was to determine the relationship of the superficial peroneal nerve to the standard anterior approach for total ankle arthroplasty. The superficial peroneal nerve was dissected in 10 below-the-knee cadaver specimens. The medial and intermediate dorsal cutaneous branches were identified. A needle was placed at the ankle joint. The following measurements were recorded: bifurcation into the medial and intermediate dorsal cutaneous branches, reference needle to the branches of the medial and intermediate superficial peroneal nerve, and the crossing branches of the medial dorsal cutaneous nerve. Two specimens (20%) had a medial dorsal cutaneous branch cross from medially to laterally. Eight specimens (80%) had a crossing branch of the medial dorsal cutaneous branch within 5 cm of the incision. No intermediate dorsal cutaneous branches were within the incision. The results from the present cadaver study suggest that during an anterior ankle approach, aberrant branches of the superficial peroneal nerve could require transection in 20% of patients at the joint level and ≤80% of patients with distal extension >35 mm from the ankle joint. The risk of injury to branches of the superficial peroneal nerve is substantial. The risk of nerve injury can be decreased with meticulous operative technique, smaller incisions, and the avoidance of aggressive retraction.

  8. The benefits of a watershed approach to evaluating risks for multiple hazardous waste sites

    SciTech Connect

    Burris, J.A.; Pease, A.; Jop, K.; Connely, R.

    1994-12-31

    An integrated sampling program including chemical analyses of surface waters and sediments, measurement of water quality parameters, sampling of macroinvertebrate communities, and toxicity testing of soils and sediments was implemented on a US DOD Facility within three watersheds where multiple waste sites are located. The results of the study were used to identify the migration and distribution of contamination from individual waste sites, to identify any areas of obvious biological stress where future studies should be focused, to evaluate the need for sampling and analyses of aquatic organisms, to evaluate the influence of other non-point source and point sources of contamination of other stressors, and to identify sediment contamination in relation to the waste sites. This information was necessary to the design and implementation of ecological risk assessment for the individual waste sites. The methodology used to complete the study and its results will be presented. The focus of the discussion will be on the benefits of a watershed based sampling design (versus a more traditional site by site approach) in terms of cost savings, remedial decision making, and time savings. An additional discussion will focus on how this approach can be used to address the potential additive risks to a watershed resulting from the presence of multiple waste sites.

  9. Quantitative risk-based approach for improving water quality management in mining.

    PubMed

    Liu, Wenying; Moran, Chris J; Vink, Sue

    2011-09-01

    The potential environmental threats posed by freshwater withdrawal and mine water discharge are some of the main drivers for the mining industry to improve water management. The use of multiple sources of water supply and introducing water reuse into the mine site water system have been part of the operating philosophies employed by the mining industry to realize these improvements. However, a barrier to implementation of such good water management practices is concomitant water quality variation and the resulting impacts on the efficiency of mineral separation processes, and an increased environmental consequence of noncompliant discharge events. There is an increasing appreciation that conservative water management practices, production efficiency, and environmental consequences are intimately linked through the site water system. It is therefore essential to consider water management decisions and their impacts as an integrated system as opposed to dealing with each impact separately. This paper proposes an approach that could assist mine sites to manage water quality issues in a systematic manner at the system level. This approach can quantitatively forecast the risk related with water quality and evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies in mitigating the risk by quantifying implications for production and hence economic viability.

  10. European Approaches to Work-Related Stress: A Critical Review on Risk Evaluation

    PubMed Central

    Lucchini, Roberto G

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, various international organizations have raised awareness regarding psychosocial risks and work-related stress. European stakeholders have also taken action on these issues by producing important documents, such as position papers and government regulations, which are reviewed in this article. In particular, 4 European models that have been developed for the assessment and management of work-related stress are considered here. Although important advances have been made in the understanding of work-related stress, there are still gaps in the translation of this knowledge into effective practice at the enterprise level. There are additional problems regarding the methodology in the evaluation of work-related stress. The European models described in this article are based on holistic, global and participatory approaches, where the active role of and involvement of workers are always emphasized. The limitations of these models are in the lack of clarity on preventive intervention and, for two of them, the lack of instrument standardization for risk evaluation. The comparison among the European models to approach work-related stress, although with limitations and socio-cultural differences, offers the possibility for the development of a social dialogue that is important in defining the correct and practical methodology for work stress evaluation and prevention. PMID:22953229

  11. Evaluation of HDL-modulating interventions for cardiovascular risk reduction using a systems pharmacology approach.

    PubMed

    Gadkar, Kapil; Lu, James; Sahasranaman, Srikumar; Davis, John; Mazer, Norman A; Ramanujan, Saroja

    2016-01-01

    The recent failures of cholesteryl ester transport protein inhibitor drugs to decrease CVD risk, despite raising HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) levels, suggest that pharmacologic increases in HDL-C may not always reflect elevations in reverse cholesterol transport (RCT), the process by which HDL is believed to exert its beneficial effects. HDL-modulating therapies can affect HDL properties beyond total HDL-C, including particle numbers, size, and composition, and may contribute differently to RCT and CVD risk. The lack of validated easily measurable pharmacodynamic markers to link drug effects to RCT, and ultimately to CVD risk, complicates target and compound selection and evaluation. In this work, we use a systems pharmacology model to contextualize the roles of different HDL targets in cholesterol metabolism and provide quantitative links between HDL-related measurements and the associated changes in RCT rate to support target and compound evaluation in drug development. By quantifying the amount of cholesterol removed from the periphery over the short-term, our simulations show the potential for infused HDL to treat acute CVD. For the primary prevention of CVD, our analysis suggests that the induction of ApoA-I synthesis may be a more viable approach, due to the long-term increase in RCT rate.

  12. A risk-mitigation approach to the management of induced seismicity.

    PubMed

    Bommer, Julian J; Crowley, Helen; Pinho, Rui

    2015-01-01

    Earthquakes may be induced by a wide range of anthropogenic activities such as mining, fluid injection and extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. In recent years, the increased occurrence of induced seismicity and the impact of some of these earthquakes on the built environment have heightened both public concern and regulatory scrutiny, motivating the need for a framework for the management of induced seismicity. Efforts to develop systems to enable control of seismicity have not yet resulted in solutions that can be applied with confidence in most cases. The more rational approach proposed herein is based on applying the same risk quantification and mitigation measures that are applied to the hazard from natural seismicity. This framework allows informed decision-making regarding the conduct of anthropogenic activities that may cause earthquakes. The consequent risk, if related to non-structural damage (when re-location is not an option), can be addressed by appropriate financial compensation. If the risk poses a threat to life and limb, then it may be reduced through the application of strengthening measures in the built environment-the cost of which can be balanced against the economic benefits of the activity in question-rather than attempting to ensure that some threshold on earthquake magnitude or ground-shaking amplitude is not exceeded. However, because of the specific characteristics of induced earthquakes-which may occur in regions with little or no natural seismicity-the procedures used in standard earthquake engineering need adaptation and modification for application to induced seismicity.

  13. A risk-mitigation approach to the management of induced seismicity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bommer, Julian J.; Crowley, Helen; Pinho, Rui

    2015-04-01

    Earthquakes may be induced by a wide range of anthropogenic activities such as mining, fluid injection and extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. In recent years, the increased occurrence of induced seismicity and the impact of some of these earthquakes on the built environment have heightened both public concern and regulatory scrutiny, motivating the need for a framework for the management of induced seismicity. Efforts to develop systems to enable control of seismicity have not yet resulted in solutions that can be applied with confidence in most cases. The more rational approach proposed herein is based on applying the same risk quantification and mitigation measures that are applied to the hazard from natural seismicity. This framework allows informed decision-making regarding the conduct of anthropogenic activities that may cause earthquakes. The consequent risk, if related to non-structural damage (when re-location is not an option), can be addressed by appropriate financial compensation. If the risk poses a threat to life and limb, then it may be reduced through the application of strengthening measures in the built environment—the cost of which can be balanced against the economic benefits of the activity in question—rather than attempting to ensure that some threshold on earthquake magnitude or ground-shaking amplitude is not exceeded. However, because of the specific characteristics of induced earthquakes—which may occur in regions with little or no natural seismicity—the procedures used in standard earthquake engineering need adaptation and modification for application to induced seismicity.

  14. Biomechanical approaches to identify and quantify injury mechanisms and risk factors in women's artistic gymnastics.

    PubMed

    Bradshaw, Elizabeth J; Hume, Patria A

    2012-09-01

    Targeted injury prevention strategies, based on biomechanical analyses, have the potential to help reduce the incidence and severity of gymnastics injuries. This review outlines the potential benefits of biomechanics research to contribute to injury prevention strategies for women's artistic gymnastics by identification of mechanisms of injury and quantification of the effects of injury risk factors. One hundred and twenty-three articles were retained for review after searching electronic databases using key words, including 'gymnastic', 'biomech*', and 'inj*', and delimiting by language and relevance to the paper aim. Impact load can be measured biomechanically by the use of instrumented equipment (e.g. beatboard), instrumentation on the gymnast (accelerometers), or by landings on force plates. We need further information on injury mechanisms and risk factors in gymnastics and practical methods of monitoring training loads. We have not yet shown, beyond a theoretical approach, how biomechanical analysis of gymnastics can help reduce injury risk through injury prevention interventions. Given the high magnitude of impact load, both acute and accumulative, coaches should monitor impact loads per training session, taking into consideration training quality and quantity such as the control of rotation and the height from which the landings are executed.

  15. Risk newsboy: approach for addressing uncertainty in developing action levels and cleanup limits

    SciTech Connect

    Cooke, Roger; MacDonell, Margaret

    2007-07-01

    Site cleanup decisions involve developing action levels and residual limits for key contaminants, to assure health protection during the cleanup period and into the long term. Uncertainty is inherent in the toxicity information used to define these levels, based on incomplete scientific knowledge regarding dose-response relationships across various hazards and exposures at environmentally relevant levels. This problem can be addressed by applying principles used to manage uncertainty in operations research, as illustrated by the newsboy dilemma. Each day a newsboy must balance the risk of buying more papers than he can sell against the risk of not buying enough. Setting action levels and cleanup limits involves a similar concept of balancing and distributing risks and benefits in the face of uncertainty. The newsboy approach can be applied to develop health-based target concentrations for both radiological and chemical contaminants, with stakeholder input being crucial to assessing 'regret' levels. Associated tools include structured expert judgment elicitation to quantify uncertainty in the dose-response relationship, and mathematical techniques such as probabilistic inversion and iterative proportional fitting. (authors)

  16. Risk based approach for design and optimization of stomach specific delivery of rifampicin.

    PubMed

    Vora, Chintan; Patadia, Riddhish; Mittal, Karan; Mashru, Rajashree

    2013-10-15

    The research envisaged focuses on risk management approach for better recognizing the risks, ways to mitigate them and propose a control strategy for the development of rifampicin gastroretentive tablets. Risk assessment using failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) was done to depict the effects of specific failure modes related to respective formulation/process variable. A Box-Behnken design was used to investigate the effect of amount of sodium bicarbonate (X1), pore former HPMC (X2) and glyceryl behenate (X3) on percent drug release at 1st hour (Q1), 4th hour (Q4), 8th hour (Q8) and floating lag time (min). Main effects and interaction plots were generated to study effects of variables. Selection of the optimized formulation was done using desirability function and overlay contour plots. The optimized formulation exhibited Q1 of 20.9%, Q4 of 59.1%, Q8 of 94.8% and floating lag time of 4.0 min. Akaike information criteria and Model selection criteria revealed that the model was best described by Korsmeyer-Peppas power law. The residual plots demonstrated no existence of non-normality, skewness or outliers. The composite desirability for optimized formulation computed using equations and software were 0.84 and 0.86 respectively. FTIR, DSC and PXRD studies ruled out drug polymer interaction due to thermal treatment.

  17. Parent-Child Aggression Risk in Expectant Mothers and Fathers: A Multimethod Theoretical Approach.

    PubMed

    Rodriguez, Christina M; Smith, Tamika L; Silvia, Paul J

    2016-11-01

    The current investigation evaluated whether cognitive processes characteristic of the Social Information Processing model predicted parent-child aggression (PCA) risk independent of personal vulnerabilities and resiliencies. This study utilized a multimethod approach, including analog tasks, with a diverse sample of 203 primiparous expectant mothers and 151 of their partners. Factors considered in this study included PCA approval attitudes, empathy, reactivity, negative child attributions, compliance expectations, and knowledge of non-physical discipline alternatives; additionally, vulnerabilities included psychopathology symptoms, domestic violence victimization, and substance use, whereas resiliencies included perceived social support, partner relationship satisfaction, and coping efficacy. For both mothers and fathers, findings supported the role of greater approval of PCA attitudes, lower empathy, more overreactivity, more negative attributions, and higher compliance expectations in relation to elevated risk of PCA. Moreover, personal vulnerabilities and resiliencies related to PCA risk for mothers; however, fathers and mothers differed on the nature of these relationships with respect to vulnerabilities as well as aspects of empathy and PCA approval attitudes. Findings provide evidence for commonalities in many of the factors investigated between mothers and fathers with some notable distinctions. Results are discussed in terms of how findings could inform prevention programs.

  18. Recommended approaches to the scientific evaluation of ecotoxicological hazards and risks of endocrine-active substances.

    PubMed

    Matthiessen, Peter; Ankley, Gerald T; Biever, Ronald C; Bjerregaard, Poul; Borgert, Christopher; Brugger, Kristin; Blankinship, Amy; Chambers, Janice; Coady, Katherine K; Constantine, Lisa; Dang, Zhichao; Denslow, Nancy D; Dreier, David A; Dungey, Steve; Gray, L Earl; Gross, Melanie; Guiney, Patrick D; Hecker, Markus; Holbech, Henrik; Iguchi, Taisen; Kadlec, Sarah; Karouna-Renier, Natalie K; Katsiadaki, Ioanna; Kawashima, Yukio; Kloas, Werner; Krueger, Henry; Kumar, Anu; Lagadic, Laurent; Leopold, Annegaaike; Levine, Steven L; Maack, Gerd; Marty, Sue; Meador, James; Mihaich, Ellen; Odum, Jenny; Ortego, Lisa; Parrott, Joanne; Pickford, Daniel; Roberts, Mike; Schaefers, Christoph; Schwarz, Tamar; Solomon, Keith; Verslycke, Tim; Weltje, Lennart; Wheeler, James R; Williams, Mike; Wolf, Jeffrey C; Yamazaki, Kunihiko

    2017-03-01

    A SETAC Pellston Workshop(®) "Environmental Hazard and Risk Assessment Approaches for Endocrine-Active Substances (EHRA)" was held in February 2016 in Pensacola, Florida, USA. The primary objective of the workshop was to provide advice, based on current scientific understanding, to regulators and policy makers; the aim being to make considered, informed decisions on whether to select an ecotoxicological hazard- or a risk-based approach for regulating a given endocrine-disrupting substance (EDS) under review. The workshop additionally considered recent developments in the identification of EDS. Case studies were undertaken on 6 endocrine-active substances (EAS-not necessarily proven EDS, but substances known to interact directly with the endocrine system) that are representative of a range of perturbations of the endocrine system and considered to be data rich in relevant information at multiple biological levels of organization for 1 or more ecologically relevant taxa. The substances selected were 17α-ethinylestradiol, perchlorate, propiconazole, 17β-trenbolone, tributyltin, and vinclozolin. The 6 case studies were not comprehensive safety evaluations but provided foundations for clarifying key issues and procedures that should be considered when assessing the ecotoxicological hazards and risks of EAS and EDS. The workshop also highlighted areas of scientific uncertainty, and made specific recommendations for research and methods-development to resolve some of the identified issues. The present paper provides broad guidance for scientists in regulatory authorities, industry, and academia on issues likely to arise during the ecotoxicological hazard and risk assessment of EAS and EDS. The primary conclusion of this paper, and of the SETAC Pellston Workshop on which it is based, is that if data on environmental exposure, effects on sensitive species and life-stages, delayed effects, and effects at low concentrations are robust, initiating environmental risk

  19. Examining Food Risk in the Large using a Complex, Networked System-of-sytems Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Ambrosiano, John; Newkirk, Ryan; Mc Donald, Mark P

    2010-12-03

    The food production infrastructure is a highly complex system of systems. Characterizing the risks of intentional contamination in multi-ingredient manufactured foods is extremely challenging because the risks depend on the vulnerabilities of food processing facilities and on the intricacies of the supply-distribution networks that link them. A pure engineering approach to modeling the system is impractical because of the overall system complexity and paucity of data. A methodology is needed to assess food contamination risk 'in the large', based on current, high-level information about manufacturing facilities, corrunodities and markets, that will indicate which food categories are most at risk of intentional contamination and warrant deeper analysis. The approach begins by decomposing the system for producing a multi-ingredient food into instances of two subsystem archetypes: (1) the relevant manufacturing and processing facilities, and (2) the networked corrunodity flows that link them to each other and consumers. Ingredient manufacturing subsystems are modeled as generic systems dynamics models with distributions of key parameters that span the configurations of real facilities. Networks representing the distribution systems are synthesized from general information about food corrunodities. This is done in a series of steps. First, probability networks representing the aggregated flows of food from manufacturers to wholesalers, retailers, other manufacturers, and direct consumers are inferred from high-level approximate information. This is followed by disaggregation of the general flows into flows connecting 'large' and 'small' categories of manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers, and consumers. Optimization methods are then used to determine the most likely network flows consistent with given data. Vulnerability can be assessed for a potential contamination point using a modified CARVER + Shock model. Once the facility and corrunodity flow models are

  20. Source Water Protection and Sustainability: a Practical Approach to Assessing Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nelson, D. O.; Chinitz, A. E.

    2009-12-01

    The recognition of climate change and the realization of the finite nature of sources of drinking water have spurred communities to develop resource sustainable practices. Sustainability requires overall management of the resource, and protecting existing and future water supplies from contamination plays a key role. Continued population growth will place increasing demands on water supplies and climate change will likely reduce groundwater recharge as well as increase the desire to replace dwindling surface water sources with groundwater. Aware of the need to protect its resource, the City of Springfield has delineated the source water protection areas (SWPAs) surrounding its wells and wellfields and has an ordinance in place that allows the City to establish specific guidelines associated with chemical usage. The City has established a range of best management strategies that vary in degree as a function of the time-of-travel zone and the presumed risk that a specific chemical poses to groundwater. When the guidelines were initially established, the City used more of a blanket approach to imposing specific practices on facilities within the SWPAs. The various approaches used were not site-specific and were based on limited information, reflecting limited resources, that were applied throughout the SWPAs as a function of proximity to the well(s). This practice led to the City’s receiving many questions from developers, etc., regarding “Why do you consider this product a risk?” The City needed an objective, consistent risk assessment tool that would reflect not only the specific chemical but also the geologic characteristics of the site where the chemical would be used. We used existing well reports to develop GIS coverages of both weighted hydraulic conductivity and depth to the aquifer that were then overlain on to the SWPA coverages. This exercise provided an assessment of the ease of water movement to the aquifer. Using that information, a spreadsheet was

  1. Static Einstein-Maxwell Black Holes with No Spatial Isometries in AdS Space.

    PubMed

    Herdeiro, Carlos A R; Radu, Eugen

    2016-11-25

    We explicitly construct static black hole solutions to the fully nonlinear, D=4, Einstein-Maxwell-anti-de Sitter (AdS) equations that have no continuous spatial symmetries. These black holes have a smooth, topologically spherical horizon (section), but without isometries, and approach, asymptotically, global AdS spacetime. They are interpreted as bound states of a horizon with the Einstein-Maxwell-AdS solitons recently discovered, for appropriate boundary data. In sharp contrast to the uniqueness results for a Minkowski electrovacuum, the existence of these black holes shows that single, equilibrium, black hole solutions in an AdS electrovacuum admit an arbitrary multipole structure.

  2. Neighborhoods and Adolescent Health-Risk Behavior: An Ecological Network Approach1

    PubMed Central

    Browning, Christopher R.; Soller, Brian; Jackson, Aubrey L.

    2014-01-01

    This study integrates insights from social network analysis, activity space perspectives, and theories of urban and spatial processes to present an innovative approach to neighborhood effects on health-risk behavior among youth. We suggest spatial patterns of neighborhood residents’ non-home routine activities may be conceptualized as ecological, or “eco”-networks, which are two-mode networks that indirectly link residents through socio-spatial overlap in routine activities. We further argue structural configurations of eco-networks are consequential for youth’s behavioral health. In this study we focus on a key structural feature of eco-networks—the neighborhood-level extent to which households share two or more activity locations, or eco-network reinforcement—and its association with two dimensions of health-risk behavior, substance use and delinquency/sexual activity. Using geographic data on non-home routine activity locations among respondents from the Los Angeles Family and Neighborhood Survey (L.A.FANS), we constructed neighborhood-specific eco-networks by connecting sampled households to “activity clusters,” which are sets of spatially-proximate activity locations. We then measured eco-network reinforcement and examined its association with adolescent dimensions of health risk behavior employing a sample of 830 youth ages 12-17 nested in 65 census tracts. We also examined whether neighborhood-level social processes (collective efficacy and intergenerational closure) mediate the association between eco-network reinforcement and the outcomes considered. Results indicated eco-network reinforcement exhibits robust negative associations with both substance use and delinquency/sexual activity scales. Eco-network reinforcement effects were not explained by potential mediating variables. In addition to introducing a novel theoretical and empirical approach to neighborhood effects on youth, our findings highlight the importance of eco

  3. How to Quantify Sustainable Development: A Risk-Based Approach to Water Quality Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarang, Amin; Vahedi, Arman; Shamsai, Abolfazl

    2008-02-01

    Since the term was coined in the Brundtland report in 1987, the issue of sustainable development has been challenged in terms of quantification. Different policy options may lend themselves more or less to the underlying principles of sustainability, but no analytical tools are available for a more in-depth assessment of the degree of sustainability. Overall, there are two major schools of thought employing the sustainability concept in managerial decisions: those of measuring and those of monitoring. Measurement of relative sustainability is the key issue in bridging the gap between theory and practice of sustainability of water resources systems. The objective of this study is to develop a practical tool for quantifying and assessing the degree of relative sustainability of water quality systems based on risk-based indicators, including reliability, resilience, and vulnerability. Current work on the Karoun River, the largest river in Iran, has included the development of an integrated model consisting of two main parts: a water quality simulation subroutine to evaluate Dissolved Oxygen Biological Oxygen Demand (DO-BOD) response, and an estimation of risk-based indicators subroutine via the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). We also developed a simple waste load allocation model via Least Cost and Uniform Treatment approaches in order to consider the optimal point of pollutants control costs given a desired reliability value which addresses DO in two different targets. The Risk-based approach developed herein, particularly via the FORM technique, appears to be an appropriately efficient tool for estimating the relative sustainability. Moreover, our results in the Karoun system indicate that significant changes in sustainability values are possible through dedicating money for treatment and strict pollution controls while simultaneously requiring a technical advance along change in current attitudes for environment protection.

  4. Neighborhoods and adolescent health-risk behavior: an ecological network approach.

    PubMed

    Browning, Christopher R; Soller, Brian; Jackson, Aubrey L

    2015-01-01

    This study integrates insights from social network analysis, activity space perspectives, and theories of urban and spatial processes to present an novel approach to neighborhood effects on health-risk behavior among youth. We suggest spatial patterns of neighborhood residents' non-home routines may be conceptualized as ecological, or "eco"-networks, which are two-mode networks that indirectly link residents through socio-spatial overlap in routine activities. We further argue structural configurations of eco-networks are consequential for youth's behavioral health. In this study we focus on a key structural feature of eco-networks--the neighborhood-level extent to which household dyads share two or more activity locations, or eco-network reinforcement--and its association with two dimensions of health-risk behavior, substance use and delinquency/sexual activity. Using geographic data on non-home routine activity locations among respondents from the Los Angeles Family and Neighborhood Survey (L.A.FANS), we constructed neighborhood-specific eco-networks by connecting sampled households to "activity clusters," which are sets of spatially-proximate activity locations. We then measured eco-network reinforcement and examined its association with dimensions of adolescent health risk behavior employing a sample of 830 youth ages 12-17 nested in 65 census tracts. We also examined whether neighborhood-level social processes (collective efficacy and intergenerational closure) mediate the association between eco-network reinforcement and the outcomes considered. Results indicated eco-network reinforcement exhibits robust negative associations with both substance use and delinquency/sexual activity scales. Eco-network reinforcement effects were not explained by potential mediating variables. In addition to introducing a novel theoretical and empirical approach to neighborhood effects on youth, our findings highlight the importance of intersecting conventional routines for

  5. Grouping and Read-Across Approaches for Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    PubMed Central

    Oomen, Agnes G.; Bleeker, Eric A. J.; Bos, Peter M. J.; van Broekhuizen, Fleur; Gottardo, Stefania; Groenewold, Monique; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Marcomini, Antonio; Peijnenburg, Willie J. G. M.; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J.; van Tongeren, Martie; Wiench, Karin; Wohlleben, Wendel; Landsiedel, Robert

    2015-01-01

    Physicochemical properties of chemicals affect their exposure, toxicokinetics/fate and hazard, and for nanomaterials, the variation of these properties results in a wide variety of materials with potentially different risks. To limit the amount of testing for risk assessment, the information gathering process for nanomaterials needs to be efficient. At the same time, sufficient information to assess the safety of human health and the environment should be available for each nanomaterial. Grouping and read-across approaches can be utilised to meet these goals. This article presents different possible applications of grouping and read-across for nanomaterials within the broader perspective of the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy (RAS), as developed in the EU FP7 project MARINA. Firstly, nanomaterials can be grouped based on limited variation in physicochemical properties to subsequently design an efficient testing strategy that covers the entire group. Secondly, knowledge about exposure, toxicokinetics/fate or hazard, for example via properties such as dissolution rate, aspect ratio, chemical (non-)activity, can be used to organise similar materials in generic groups to frame issues that need further attention, or potentially to read-across. Thirdly, when data related to specific endpoints is required, read-across can be considered, using data from a source material for the target nanomaterial. Read-across could be based on a scientifically sound justification that exposure, distribution to the target (fate/toxicokinetics) and hazard of the target material are similar to, or less than, the source material. These grouping and read-across approaches pave the way for better use of available information on nanomaterials and are flexible enough to allow future adaptations related to scientific developments. PMID:26516872

  6. How to quantify sustainable development: a risk-based approach to water quality management.

    PubMed

    Sarang, Amin; Vahedi, Arman; Shamsai, Abolfazl

    2008-02-01

    Since the term was coined in the Brundtland report in 1987, the issue of sustainable development has been challenged in terms of quantification. Different policy options may lend themselves more or less to the underlying principles of sustainability, but no analytical tools are available for a more in-depth assessment of the degree of sustainability. Overall, there are two major schools of thought employing the sustainability concept in managerial decisions: those of measuring and those of monitoring. Measurement of relative sustainability is the key issue in bridging the gap between theory and practice of sustainability of water resources systems. The objective of this study is to develop a practical tool for quantifying and assessing the degree of relative sustainability of water quality systems based on risk-based indicators, including reliability, resilience, and vulnerability. Current work on the Karoun River, the largest river in Iran, has included the development of an integrated model consisting of two main parts: a water quality simulation subroutine to evaluate Dissolved Oxygen Biological Oxygen Demand (DO-BOD) response, and an estimation of risk-based indicators subroutine via the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). We also developed a simple waste load allocation model via Least Cost and Uniform Treatment approaches in order to consider the optimal point of pollutants control costs given a desired reliability value which addresses DO in two different targets. The Risk-based approach developed herein, particularly via the FORM technique, appears to be an appropriately efficient tool for estimating the relative sustainability. Moreover, our results in the Karoun system indicate that significant changes in sustainability values are possible through dedicating money for treatment and strict pollution controls while simultaneously requiring a technical advance along change in current attitudes for environment protection.

  7. Grouping and Read-Across Approaches for Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Oomen, Agnes G; Bleeker, Eric A J; Bos, Peter M J; van Broekhuizen, Fleur; Gottardo, Stefania; Groenewold, Monique; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Marcomini, Antonio; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Wiench, Karin; Wohlleben, Wendel; Landsiedel, Robert

    2015-10-26

    Physicochemical properties of chemicals affect their exposure, toxicokinetics/fate and hazard, and for nanomaterials, the variation of these properties results in a wide variety of materials with potentially different risks. To limit the amount of testing for risk assessment, the information gathering process for nanomaterials needs to be efficient. At the same time, sufficient information to assess the safety of human health and the environment should be available for each nanomaterial. Grouping and read-across approaches can be utilised to meet these goals. This article presents different possible applications of grouping and read-across for nanomaterials within the broader perspective of the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy (RAS), as developed in the EU FP7 project MARINA. Firstly, nanomaterials can be grouped based on limited variation in physicochemical properties to subsequently design an efficient testing strategy that covers the entire group. Secondly, knowledge about exposure, toxicokinetics/fate or hazard, for example via properties such as dissolution rate, aspect ratio, chemical (non-)activity, can be used to organise similar materials in generic groups to frame issues that need further attention, or potentially to read-across. Thirdly, when data related to specific endpoints is required, read-across can be considered, using data from a source material for the target nanomaterial. Read-across could be based on a scientifically sound justification that exposure, distribution to the target (fate/toxicokinetics) and hazard of the target material are similar to, or less than, the source material. These grouping and read-across approaches pave the way for better use of available information on nanomaterials and are flexible enough to allow future adaptations related to scientific developments.

  8. Collaborative multi-stakeholder approach to drafting flood risk management plans in Wallonia, Belgium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maroy, Edith; Javaux, Mathieu; Vandermosten, Pierre; Englebert, Benjamin

    2015-04-01

    The Flood Directive 2007/60/CE establishes a common framework within the European Union for assessing and reducing risks posed by floods on human health, the environment, economic activity and cultural heritage. For that purpose, Member States had to establish flood areas and flood risk maps, and subsequently, flood risk management plans (due December 2015). According to the Directive, special attention is to be paid to international coordination for transboundary water courses, integrated management approaches at the catchment scale, cost-effectiveness of measures and public involvement. Management measures must focus on reducing the probability of flooding and the potential consequences of flooding. They must cover prevention, protection and preparedness and must take into account relevant aspects, such as water management, soil management, spatial planning, land use and nature conservation. Floods in Wallonia mostly originate from overflowing of both little sloped rivers and highly reactive rivers but also, from concentrated runoff in the intensely cultivated and erosion-prone region north of the Sambre-Meuse axis. Consequently, walloon flood area maps not only show flood areas based on hydraulic modelling and observations but also runoff concentration axis in agricultural areas. Now released to the public, this information can be used to assess the risk of damage for land planning and erosion control strategies. Incidentally, some 166 km2 were mapped as flood hazard area with a return period of 25 years, 28.8 of which are urbanized or destined to urbanisation and counting of number of approximatively 39.000 people living in those areas. Flood area and flood risk maps should be the starting point of elaborating flood risk management plans. In order to involve the diversity of water managers and stakeholders in the drafting of a management plan for hydrographic districts in Wallonia, responsible authorities decided to mandate scientists and engineers to organize

  9. Early Life Stress and Sleep Restriction as Risk Factors in PTSD: An Integrative Pre-Clinical Approach

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-04-01

    1 AD_________________ Award Number: W81XWH-11-2-0111 TITLE: “Early Life Stress and Sleep ...REPORT TYPE Annual 3. DATES COVERED 1 April 2013 - 31 March 2014 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE “Early Life Stress and Sleep Restriction as Risk Factors...Gal Richter-Levin 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER email:galrichterlevin@gmail.com 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING

  10. Added value of molecular assay Xpert MTB/RIF compared to sputum smear microscopy to assess the risk of tuberculosis transmission in a low-prevalence country.

    PubMed

    Opota, O; Senn, L; Prod'hom, G; Mazza-Stalder, J; Tissot, F; Greub, G; Jaton, K

    2016-07-01

    Airborne precautions are required at hospital admission for patients with suspected pulmonary tuberculosis. The isolation is maintained until 3 serially collected sputum smears are acid-fast bacilli negative, a time- and labor-intensive method with limited sensitivity and specificity, which has a great impact on patient flow management. We evaluated the possibility of replacing the result of microscopy by the semiquantitative result of the molecular point-of-care test Xpert MTB/RIF to assess patients' transmission risk to quickly guide airborne isolation decisions in low-endemic countries. The performance of the Xpert MTB/RIF, used as a first-line test, was compared to the results of microscopy for specimens (n=242) collected from May 2010 to December 2014 in Lausanne, Switzerland. The sensitivity and specificity of Xpert MTB/RIF were 91.5% (65/71) and 99.6% (170/171), respectively, vs. 64.8% (46/71) and 94.2% (161/171) for microscopy. Samples with negative Xpert MTB/RIF were all smear negative for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (negative predictive value, 100%). The semiquantitative results of Xpert MTB/RIF-high, medium, low or very low-were found to correlate with acid-fast bacilli detection: positive predictive value of 100% (6/6), 96.5% (27/28), 52.2% (12/23) and 11.1% (1/9) respectively. Finally, when including clinical criteria, we identified 11 smear-negative but Xpert MTB/RIF-positive patients with a significant transmission potential. In conclusion, our data support the introduction of an Xpert MTB/RIF-based strategy as a replacement of smear microscopy for a faster and more accurate management of tuberculosis patients' transmission risk in a low-prevalence country.

  11. Modeling the Interplay of Multilevel Risk Factors for Future Academic and Behavior Problems: A Person-Centered Approach

    PubMed Central

    Lanza, Stephanie T.; Rhoades, Brittany L.; Nix, Robert L.; Greenberg, Mark T.

    2010-01-01

    This study identified profiles of 13 risk factors across child, family, school, and neighborhood domains in a diverse sample of children in kindergarten from 4 US locations (n = 750; 45% minority). It then examined the relation of those early risk profiles to externalizing problems, school failure, and low academic achievement in Grade 5. A person-centered approach, latent class analysis, revealed four unique risk profiles, which varied considerably across urban African American, urban white, and rural white children. Profiles characterized by several risks that cut across multiple domains conferred the highest risk for negative outcomes. Compared to a variable-centered approach, such as a cumulative risk index, these findings provide a more nuanced understanding of the early precursors to negative outcomes. For example, results suggested that urban children in single-parent homes that have few other risk factors (i.e., show at least average parenting warmth and consistency and report relatively low stress and high social support) are at quite low risk for externalizing problems, but at relatively high risk for poor grades and low academic achievement. These findings provide important information for refining and targeting preventive interventions to groups of children who share particular constellations of risk factors. PMID:20423544

  12. Modeling the interplay of multilevel risk factors for future academic and behavior problems: a person-centered approach.

    PubMed

    Lanza, Stephanie T; Rhoades, Brittany L; Nix, Robert L; Greenberg, Mark T

    2010-05-01

    This study identified profiles of 13 risk factors across child, family, school, and neighborhood domains in a diverse sample of children in kindergarten from four US locations (n = 750; 45% minority). It then examined the relation of those early risk profiles to externalizing problems, school failure, and low academic achievement in Grade 5. A person-centered approach, latent class analysis, revealed four unique risk profiles, which varied considerably across urban African American, urban White, and rural White children. Profiles characterized by several risks that cut across multiple domains conferred the highest risk for negative outcomes. Compared to a variable-centered approach, such as a cumulative risk index, these findings provide a more nuanced understanding of the early precursors to negative outcomes. For example, results suggested that urban children in single-parent homes that have few other risk factors (i.e., show at least average parenting warmth and consistency and report relatively low stress and high social support) are at quite low risk for externalizing problems, but at relatively high risk for poor grades and low academic achievement. These findings provide important information for refining and targeting preventive interventions to groups of children who share particular constellations of risk factors.

  13. Crash risk analysis for Shanghai urban expressways: A Bayesian semi-parametric modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Yu, Rongjie; Wang, Xuesong; Yang, Kui; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

    2016-10-01

    Urban expressway systems have been developed rapidly in recent years in China; it has become one key part of the city roadway networks as carrying large traffic volume and providing high traveling speed. Along with the increase of traffic volume, traffic safety has become a major issue for Chinese urban expressways due to the frequent crash occurrence and the non-recurrent congestions caused by them. For the purpose of unveiling crash occurrence mechanisms and further developing Active Traffic Management (ATM) control strategies to improve traffic safety, this study developed disaggregate crash risk analysis models with loop detector traffic data and historical crash data. Bayesian random effects logistic regression models were utilized as it can account for the unobserved heterogeneity among crashes. However, previous crash risk analysis studies formulated random effects distributions in a parametric approach, which assigned them to follow normal distributions. Due to the limited information known about random effects distributions, subjective parametric setting may be incorrect. In order to construct more flexible and robust random effects to capture the unobserved heterogeneity, Bayesian semi-parametric inference technique was introduced to crash risk analysis in this study. Models with both inference techniques were developed for total crashes; semi-parametric models were proved to provide substantial better model goodness-of-fit, while the two models shared consistent coefficient estimations. Later on, Bayesian semi-parametric random effects logistic regression models were developed for weekday peak hour crashes, weekday non-peak hour crashes, and weekend non-peak hour crashes to investigate different crash occurrence scenarios. Significant factors that affect crash risk have been revealed and crash mechanisms have been concluded.

  14. Assessment of Clinical Risk Management System in Hospitals: An Approach for Quality Improvement

    PubMed Central

    Farokhzadian, Jamileh; Nayeri, Nahid Dehghan; Borhani, Fariba

    2015-01-01

    Background: Clinical risks have created major problems in healthcare system such as serious adverse effects on patient safety and enhancing the financial burden for the healthcare. Thus, clinical risk management (CRM) system has been introduced for improving the quality and safety of services to health care. The aim of this study was to assess the status of CRM in the hospitals. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 200 nursing staff from three teaching hospitals affiliated with the Kerman University of Medical Sciences in southeast of Iran. Data were collected from the participants using questionnaire and observational checklist in quality improvement offices and selected wards. The data were analyzed using SPSS version 20. Results: Almost, 57% of persons participated in at least one of training sessions on CRM. The status of CRM system was rated from weak to moderate (2.93±0.72- 3.18±0.66). Among the six domains of CRM system, the highest mean belonged to domain the monitoring of analysis, evaluation and risk control (3.18±0.72); the lowest mean belonged to domain the staff’s knowledge, recognition and understanding of CRM (2.93±0.66). There were no integrated electronic systems for recording and analyzing clinical risks and incidents in the hospitals. Conclusion: Attempts have been made to establish CRM through improvement quality approach such as clinical governance and accreditation, but not enough, however, health care should move toward quality improvement and safe practice through the effective integration of CRM in organizational process. PMID:26156927

  15. An Application of Bayesian Approach in Modeling Risk of Death in an Intensive Care Unit

    PubMed Central

    Wong, Rowena Syn Yin; Ismail, Noor Azina

    2016-01-01

    Background and Objectives There are not many studies that attempt to model intensive care unit (ICU) risk of death in developing countries, especially in South East Asia. The aim of this study was to propose and describe application of a Bayesian approach in modeling in-ICU deaths in a Malaysian ICU. Methods This was a prospective study in a mixed medical-surgery ICU in a multidisciplinary tertiary referral hospital in Malaysia. Data collection included variables that were defined in Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE IV) model. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation approach was applied in the development of four multivariate logistic regression predictive models for the ICU, where the main outcome measure was in-ICU mortality risk. The performance of the models were assessed through overall model fit, discrimination and calibration measures. Results from the Bayesian models were also compared against results obtained using frequentist maximum likelihood method. Results The study involved 1,286 consecutive ICU admissions between January 1, 2009 and June 30, 2010, of which 1,111 met the inclusion criteria. Patients who were admitted to the ICU were generally younger, predominantly male, with low co-morbidity load and mostly under mechanical ventilation. The overall in-ICU mortality rate was 18.5% and the overall mean Acute Physiology Score (APS) was 68.5. All four models exhibited good discrimination, with area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values approximately 0.8. Calibration was acceptable (Hosmer-Lemeshow p-values > 0.05) for all models, except for model M3. Model M1 was identified as the model with the best overall performance in this study. Conclusion Four prediction models were proposed, where the best model was chosen based on its overall performance in this study. This study has also demonstrated the promising potential of the Bayesian MCMC approach as an alternative in the analysis and modeling of

  16. Administrative risk quantification of subcutaneous and intravenous therapies in Italian centers utilizing the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis approach

    PubMed Central

    Ponzetti, Clemente; Canciani, Monica; Farina, Massimo; Era, Sara; Walzer, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    Background In oncology, an important parameter of safety is the potential treatment error in hospitals. The analyzed hypothesis is that of subcutaneous therapies would provide a superior safety benefit over intravenous therapies through fixed-dose administrations, when analyzed with trastuzumab and rituximab. Methods For the calculation of risk levels, the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis approach was applied. Within this approach, the critical treatment path is followed and risk classification for each individual step is estimated. For oncology and hematology administration, 35 different risk steps were assessed. The study was executed in 17 hematology and 16 breast cancer centers in Italy. As intravenous and subcutaneous were the only injection routes in medical available for trastuzumab and rituximab in oncology at the time of the study, these two therapies were chosen. Results When the risk classes were calculated, eight high-risk areas were identified for the administration of an intravenous therapy in hematology or oncology; 13 areas would be defined as having a median-risk classification and 14 areas as having a low-risk classification (total risk areas: n=35). When the new subcutaneous formulation would be applied, 23 different risk levels could be completely eliminated (65% reduction). Important high-risk classes such as dose calculation, preparation and package labeling, preparation of the access to the vein, pump infusion preparation, and infusion monitoring were included in the eliminations. The overall risk level for the intravenous administration was estimated to be 756 (ex-ante) and could be reduced by 70% (ex-post). The potential harm compensation for errors related to pharmacy would be decreased from eight risk classes to only three risk classes. Conclusion The subcutaneous administration of trastuzumab (breast cancer) and rituximab (hematology) might lower the risk of administration and treatment errors for patients and could hence indirectly have

  17. Internal structure of charged AdS black holes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattacharjee, Srijit; Sarkar, Sudipta; Virmani, Amitabh

    2016-06-01

    When an electrically charged black hole is perturbed, its inner horizon becomes a singularity, often referred to as the Poisson-Israel mass inflation singularity. Ori constructed a model of this phenomenon for asymptotically flat black holes, in which the metric can be determined explicitly in the mass inflation region. In this paper we implement the Ori model for charged AdS black holes. We find that the mass function inflates faster than the flat space case as the inner horizon is approached. Nevertheless, the mass inflation singularity is still a weak singularity: Although spacetime curvature becomes infinite, tidal distortions remain finite on physical objects attempting to cross it.

  18. A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

    2014-10-01

    Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in

  19. The possibilities of applying a risk-oriented approach to the NPP reliability and safety enhancement problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komarov, Yu. A.

    2014-10-01

    An analysis and some generalizations of approaches to risk assessments are presented. Interconnection between different interpretations of the "risk" notion is shown, and the possibility of applying the fuzzy set theory to risk assessments is demonstrated. A generalized formulation of the risk assessment notion is proposed in applying risk-oriented approaches to the problem of enhancing reliability and safety in nuclear power engineering. The solution of problems using the developed risk-oriented approaches aimed at achieving more reliable and safe operation of NPPs is described. The results of studies aimed at determining the need (advisability) to modernize/replace NPP elements and systems are presented together with the results obtained from elaborating the methodical principles of introducing the repair concept based on the equipment technical state. The possibility of reducing the scope of tests and altering the NPP systems maintenance strategy is substantiated using the risk-oriented approach. A probabilistic model for estimating the validity of boric acid concentration measurements is developed.

  20. Managing uncertainty in the clinical prediction of risk of harm: Bringing a Bayesian approach to forensic mental health.

    PubMed

    Duggan, Conor; Jones, Roland

    2017-02-01

    Predicting the likelihood of harm posed by mentally disordered offenders remains controversial. It is proposed that a Bayesian approach may help quantify the uncertainty surrounding such prediction. An example of this approach quantifying the risk of breast cancer in the event of a positive mammogram is provided. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. 12 CFR Appendix C to Part 567 - Risk-Based Capital Requirements-Internal-Ratings-Based and Advanced Measurement Approaches

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ...-Ratings-Based and Advanced Measurement Approaches C Appendix C to Part 567 Banks and Banking OFFICE OF... Capital Requirements—Internal-Ratings-Based and Advanced Measurement Approaches Part IGeneral Provisions... Equity Exposures Section 51Introduction and Exposure Measurement Section 52Simple Risk Weight...

  2. Capturing changes in flood risk with Bayesian approaches for flood damage assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vogel, Kristin; Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Thieken, Annegret; Müller, Meike; Sieg, Tobias; Laudan, Jonas; Kienzler, Sarah; Weise, Laura; Merz, Bruno; Scherbaum, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk is a function of hazard as well as of exposure and vulnerability. All three components are under change over space and time and have to be considered for reliable damage estimations and risk analyses, since this is the basis for an efficient, adaptable risk management. Hitherto, models for estimating flood damage are comparatively simple and cannot sufficiently account for changing conditions. The Bayesian network approach allows for a multivariate modeling of complex systems without relying on expert knowledge about physical constraints. In a Bayesian network each model component is considered to be a random variable. The way of interactions between those variables can be learned from observations or be defined by expert knowledge. Even a combination of both is possible. Moreover, the probabilistic framework captures uncertainties related to the prediction and provides a probability distribution for the damage instead of a point estimate. The graphical representation of Bayesian networks helps to study the change of probabilities for changing circumstances and may thus simplify the communication between scientists and public authorities. In the framework of the DFG-Research Training Group "NatRiskChange" we aim to develop Bayesian networks for flood damage and vulnerability assessments of residential buildings and companies under changing conditions. A Bayesian network learned from data, collected over the last 15 years in flooded regions in the Elbe and Danube catchments (Germany), reveals the impact of many variables like building characteristics, precaution and warning situation on flood damage to residential buildings. While the handling of incomplete and hybrid (discrete mixed with continuous) data are the most challenging issues in the study on residential buildings, a similar study, that focuses on the vulnerability of small to medium sized companies, bears new challenges. Relying on a much smaller data set for the determination of the model

  3. Screening houses for vapor intrusion risks: a multiple regression analysis approach.

    PubMed

    Johnston, Jill E; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald

    2013-06-04

    The migration of chlorinated volatile organic compounds from groundwater to indoor air-known as vapor intrusion-can be an important exposure pathway at hazardous waste sites. Because sampling indoor air at every potentially affected home is often logistically infeasible, screening tools are needed to help identify at-risk homes. Currently, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) uses a simple screening approach that employs a generic vapor "attenuation factor," the ratio of the indoor air pollutant concentration to the pollutant concentration in the soil gas directly above the groundwater table. At every potentially affected home above contaminated groundwater, the EPA assumes the vapor attenuation factor is less than 1/1000--that is, that the indoor air concentration will not exceed 1/1000 times the soil-gas concentration immediately above groundwater. This paper reports on a screening-level model that improves on the EPA approach by considering environmental, contaminant, and household characteristics. The model is based on an analysis of the EPA's vapor intrusion database, which contains almost 2,400 indoor air and corresponding subsurface concentration samples collected in 15 states. We use the site data to develop a multilevel regression model for predicting the vapor attenuation factor. We find that the attenuation factor varies significantly with soil type, depth to groundwater, season, household foundation type, and contaminant molecular weight. The resulting model decreases the rate of false negatives compared to EPA's screening approach.

  4. A boosting approach for adapting the sparsity of risk prediction signatures based on different molecular levels.

    PubMed

    Sariyar, Murat; Schumacher, Martin; Binder, Harald

    2014-06-01

    Risk prediction models can link high-dimensional molecular measurements, such as DNA methylation, to clinical endpoints. For biological interpretation, often a sparse fit is desirable. Different molecular aggregation levels, such as considering DNA methylation at the CpG, gene, or chromosome level, might demand different degrees of sparsity. Hence, model building and estimation techniques should be able to adapt their sparsity according to the setting. Additionally, underestimation of coefficients, which is a typical problem of sparse techniques, should also be addressed. We propose a comprehensive approach, based on a boosting technique that allows a flexible adaptation of model sparsity and addresses these problems in an integrative way. The main motivation is to have an automatic sparsity adaptation. In a simulation study, we show that this approach reduces underestimation in sparse settings and selects more adequate model sizes than the corresponding non-adaptive boosting technique in non-sparse settings. Using different aggregation levels of DNA methylation data from a study in kidney carcinoma patients, we illustrate how automatically selected values of the sparsity tuning parameter can reflect the underlying structure of the data. In addition to that, prediction performance and variable selection stability is compared to the non-adaptive boosting approach.

  5. An approach to assess ecological risk for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in surface water from Tianjin

    SciTech Connect

    Yu Yang; Xuan Shi; P.K. Wong; Richard Dawson; Fuliu Xu; Wenxin Liu; Shu Tao

    2006-08-15

    Three approaches were applied and compared to evaluate additive toxic effects of eight PAHs to aquatic organisms in rivers in the Tianjin area. Although the toxicity of the studied PAH compounds did not significantly increase the risk to aquatic organisms, the results of all three approaches indicated that the additive effect of the eight PAHs was significantly stronger than any individual compound acting alone, which indicated the applicability of the approaches. Further, of the compounds studied, anthracene was the major contributor to the overall toxic effect of the mixture. The calculated geometric means of the hazard quotient for the additive effect varied from 0.00055 to 0.00062, compared to the hazard quotient of individual PAHs which ranged from 5.1 10{sup -6} to 0.00053. The hazard quotient distribution geometric mean was 0.00058, with 95% of the quotient between 6.610{sup -5} and 0.051. Overlapping areas varied from 0.00015 to 0.02 for individual PAHs and was 0.03 for additive toxicity.

  6. Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

    SciTech Connect

    Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J.

    2006-07-01

    The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

  7. An AdS Crunch in Supergravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hertog, Thomas

    2004-12-01

    We review some properties of N=8 gauged supergravity in four dimensions with modified, but AdS invariant boundary conditions on the m2 = -2 scalars. There is a one-parameter class of asymptotic conditions on these fields and the metric components, for which the full AdS symmetry group is preserved. The generators of the asymptotic symmetries are finite, but acquire a contribution from the scalar fields. For a large class of such boundary conditions, we find there exist black holes with scalar hair that are specified by a single conserved charge. Since Schwarschild-AdS is a solution too for all boundary conditions, this provides an example of black hole non-uniqueness. We also show there exist solutions where smooth initial data evolve to a big crunch singularity. This opens up the possibility of using the dual conformal field theory to obtain a fully quantum description of the cosmological singularity, and we report on a preliminary study of this.

  8. Methods Development for a Spatially Explicit Population-Level Risk Assessment, Uncertainty Analysis, and Comparison with Risk Quotient Approaches

    EPA Science Inventory

    The standard framework of Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) uses organism-level assessment endpoints to qualitatively determine the risk to populations. While organism-level toxicity data provide the pathway by which a species may be affected by a chemical stressor, they neither i...

  9. A pilot study to evaluate the efficacy of adding a structured home visiting intervention to improve outcomes for high-risk families attending the Incredible Years Parent Programme: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Antisocial behaviour and adult criminality often have their origins in childhood and are best addressed early in the child’s life using evidence-based treatments such as the ‘Incredible Years Parent Programme’. However, families with additional risk factors who are at highest risk for poor outcomes do not always make sufficient change while attending such programmes. Additional support to address barriers and improve implementation of positive parenting strategies while these families attend the Incredible Years Programme may improve overall outcomes. The study aims to evaluate the efficacy of adding a structured home visiting intervention (Home Parent Support) to improve outcomes in families most at risk of poor treatment response from the Incredible Years intervention. This study will inform the design of a larger prospective randomised controlled trial. Methods/design A pilot single-blind, parallel, superiority, randomised controlled trial. Randomisation will be undertaken using a computer-generated sequence in a 1:1 ratio to the two treatments arranged in permuted blocks with stratification by age, sex, and ethnicity. One hundred and twenty six participants enrolled in the Incredible Years Parent Programme who meet the high-risk criteria will be randomly allocated to receive either Incredible Years Parent Programme and Home Parent Support, or the Incredible Years Parent Programme alone. The Home Parent Support is a 10-session structured home visiting intervention provided by a trained therapist, alongside the usual Incredible Years Parent Programme, to enhance the adoption of key parenting skills. The primary outcome is the change in child behaviour from baseline to post-intervention in parent reported Eyberg Child Behavior Inventory Problem Scale. Discussion This is the first formal evaluation of adding Home Parent Support alongside Incredible Years Parent Programme for families with risk factors who typically have poorer treatment outcomes

  10. Improving risk assessment of violence among military veterans: an evidence-based approach for clinical decision-making.

    PubMed

    Elbogen, Eric B; Fuller, Sara; Johnson, Sally C; Brooks, Stephanie; Kinneer, Patricia; Calhoun, Patrick S; Beckham, Jean C

    2010-08-01

    Increased media attention to post-deployment violence highlights the need to develop effective models to guide risk assessment among military Veterans. Ideally, a method would help identify which Veterans are most at risk for violence so that it can be determined what could be done to prevent violent behavior. This article suggests how empirical approaches to risk assessment used successfully in civilian populations can be applied to Veterans. A review was conducted of the scientific literature on Veteran populations regarding factors related to interpersonal violence generally and to domestic violence specifically. A checklist was then generated of empirically-supported risk factors for clinicians to consider in practice. To conceptualize how these known risk factors relate to a Veteran's violence potential, risk assessment scholarship was utilized to develop an evidence-based method to guide mental health professionals. The goals of this approach are to integrate science into practice, overcome logistical barriers, and permit more effective assessment, monitoring, and management of violence risk for clinicians working with Veterans, both in Department of Veteran Affairs settings and in the broader community. Research is needed to test the predictive validity of risk assessment models. Ultimately, the use of a systematic, empirical framework could lead to improved clinical decision-making in the area of risk assessment and potentially help prevent violence among Veterans.

  11. The need for comprehensive vulnerability approaches to mirror the multiplicity in mountain hazard risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keiler, Margreth; Fuchs, Sven

    2014-05-01

    The concept of vulnerability is pillared by multiple disciplinary theories underpinning either a technical or a social origin of the concept and resulting in a range of paradigms for vulnerability quantification. By taking a natural scientific approach we argue that a large number of studies have focused either on damage-loss functions for individual mountain hazards or on semi-quantitative indicator-based approaches for multiple hazards (hazard chains). However, efforts to reduce susceptibility to hazards and to create disaster-resilient communities require intersections among these approaches, as well as among theories originating in natural and social sciences, since human activity cannot be seen independently from the environmental setting. Acknowledging different roots of disciplinary paradigms in risk management, issues determining structural, economic, institutional and social vulnerability have to be more comprehensively addressed in the future with respect to mountain hazards in Europe and beyond. It is argued that structural vulnerability as originator results in considerable economic vulnerability, generated by the institutional settings of dealing with natural hazards and shaped by the overall societal framework. If vulnerability and its counterpart, resilience, is analysed and evaluated by using such a comprehensive approach, a better understanding of the vulnerability-influencing parameters could be achieved, taking into account the interdependencies and interactions between the disciplinary foci. As a result, three key issues should be addressed in future research: (1) Vulnerability requires a new perspective on the relationship between society and environment: not as a duality, but more as a mutually constitutive relationship (including methods for assessment). (2) There is a need for concepts of vulnerability that emphasise the dynamics of temporal and spatial scales, particularly with respect to Global Change processes in mountain regions. (3

  12. A Comparison of Remediation Priorities Developed By The Defense Priority Model, The Relative Risk Evaluation Method, and A Quantitative Risk Assessment Approach

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1995-12-01

    SPEARMAN COEFFICIENT OF RANK CORRELATION (R) .............................. 100 vi Abstract The Superfund , established by the Comprehensive...Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act ( CERCLA ) of 1980, seriously underestimated both the number of severely contaminated sites and the...Risk Assessment Approach 1.0 Introduction 1.1 General Issue The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act ( CERCLA ) of 1980

  13. Animal growth promoters: to ban or not to ban? A risk assessment approach.

    PubMed

    Kelly, L; Smith, D L; Snary, E L; Johnson, J A; Harris, A D; Wooldridge, M; Morris, J G

    2004-09-01

    The use of antibiotics for animal growth promotion has been controversial because of the potential transfer of antibiotic resistance from animals to humans. Such transfer could have severe public health implications in that treatment failures could result. We have followed a risk assessment approach to evaluate policy options for the streptogramin-class of antibiotics: virginiamycin, an animal growth promoter, and quinupristin/dalfopristin, a antibiotic used in humans. Under the assumption that resistance transfer is possible, models project a wide range of outcomes depending mainly on the basic reproductive number (R(0)) that determines the potential for person-to-person transmission. Counter-intuitively, the benefits of a ban on virginiamycin were highest for intermediate values of R(0), and lower for extremely high or low values of R(0).

  14. Information security governance: a risk assessment approach to health information systems protection.

    PubMed

    Williams, Patricia A H

    2013-01-01

    It is no small task to manage the protection of healthcare data and healthcare information systems. In an environment that is demanding adaptation to change for all information collection, storage and retrieval systems, including those for of e-health and information systems, it is imperative that good information security governance is in place. This includes understanding and meeting legislative and regulatory requirements. This chapter provides three models to educate and guide organisations in this complex area, and to simplify the process of information security governance and ensure appropriate and effective measures are put in place. The approach is risk based, adapted and contextualized for healthcare. In addition, specific considerations of the impact of cloud services, secondary use of data, big data and mobile health are discussed.

  15. The VORISA Project: An Integrated Approach to Assessing Volcanic Hazard and Risk in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lindsay, J. M.; Moufti, R.

    2013-12-01

    The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has numerous large monogenetic volcanic fields, known locally as 'Harrat'. The largest of these, Harrat Rahat, produced a basaltic fissure eruption in 1256 AD with lava flows travelling within 20 km of the Islamic holy city Al-Madinah. With over 900 visible basaltic and trachytic vents and periodic seismic swarms indicating stalled eruptions, an understanding of the risk of future eruptions in this volcanic field is vital. To systematically address this need we developed the Volcanic Risk in Saudi Arabia (VORISA) Project, a 3-year, multi-disciplinary international research collaboration that integrates geological, geophysical, hazard and risk studies. Detailed mapping and geochemical studies are being combined with new and existing age determinations to determine the style and sequence of events during past basaltic and trachytic eruptions. Data from gravity and magnetotelluric surveys are being integrated with microearthquake data from an 8-station borehole seismic research array to geophysically characterise the structure and nature of the crust, and thus constrain possible physical controls on magma propagation. All available data are being synthesised in hazard models to determine patterns in eruption frequency, magnitude, and style of past activity, as well as the probable location and style of a future event. Combined with geospatial vulnerability data, these hazard models, which include a reconstruction of the 1256 AD eruption, enable us to calculate and communicate volcanic risk to the city of Al-Madinah.

  16. A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

    PubMed

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R; Kazandjian, D; Blumenthal, G; Pazdur, R; Woodcock, J

    2016-12-01

    Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analyses. There is much interest in quantifying regulatory approaches to benefit and risk. In this work the use of a quantitative benefit-risk analysis was applied to regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Benefits and risks associated with 20 US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) decisions associated with a set of candidate treatments submitted between 2003 and 2015 were analyzed. For benefit analysis, the median overall survival (OS) was used where available. When not available, OS was estimated based on overall response rate (ORR) or progression-free survival (PFS). Risks were analyzed based on magnitude (or severity) of harm and likelihood of occurrence. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was explored to demonstrate analysis of systematic uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes considered were found to be consistent with the benefit-risk logic.

  17. Electric vehicle (EV) storage supply chain risk and the energy market: A micro and macroeconomic risk management approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aguilar, Susanna D.

    As a cost effective storage technology for renewable energy sources, Electric Vehicles can be integrated into energy grids. Integration must be optimized to ascertain that renewable energy is available through storage when demand exists so that cost of electricity is minimized. Optimization models can address economic risks associated with the EV supply chain- particularly the volatility in availability and cost of critical materials used in the manufacturing of EV motors and batteries. Supply chain risk can reflect itself in a shortage of storage, which can increase the price of electricity. We propose a micro-and macroeconomic framework for managing supply chain risk through utilization of a cost optimization model in combination with risk management strategies at the microeconomic and macroeconomic level. The study demonstrates how risk from the EVs vehicle critical material supply chain affects manufacturers, smart grid performance, and energy markets qualitatively and quantitatively. Our results illustrate how risk in the EV supply chain affects EV availability and the cost of ancillary services, and how EV critical material supply chain risk can be mitigated through managerial strategies and policy.

  18. Towards a resource-based habitat approach for spatial modelling of vector-borne disease risks.

    PubMed

    Hartemink, Nienke; Vanwambeke, Sophie O; Purse, Bethan V; Gilbert, Marius; Van Dyck, Hans

    2015-11-01

    Given the veterinary and public health impact of vector-borne diseases, there is a clear need to assess the suitability of landscapes for the emergence and spread of these diseases. Current approaches for predicting disease risks neglect key features of the landscape as components of the functional habitat of vectors or hosts, and hence of the pathogen. Empirical-statistical methods do not explicitly incorporate biological mechanisms, whereas current mechanistic models are rarely spatially explicit; both methods ignore the way animals use the landscape (i.e. movement ecology). We argue that applying a functional concept for habitat, i.e. the resource-based habitat concept (RBHC), can solve these issues. The RBHC offers a framework to identify systematically the different ecological resources that are necessary for the completion of the transmission cycle and to relate these resources to (combinations of) landscape features and other environmental factors. The potential of the RBHC as a framework for identifying suitable habitats for vector-borne pathogens is explored and illustrated with the case of bluetongue virus, a midge-transmitted virus affecting ruminants. The concept facilitates the study of functional habitats of the interacting species (vectors as well as hosts) and provides new insight into spatial and temporal variation in transmission opportunities and exposure that ultimately determine disease risks. It may help to identify knowledge gaps and control options arising from changes in the spatial configuration of key resources across the landscape. The RBHC framework may act as a bridge between existing mechanistic and statistical modelling approaches.

  19. Aerobic interval training reduces cardiovascular risk factors more than a multitreatment approach in overweight adolescents.

    PubMed

    Tjønna, Arnt E; Stølen, Tomas O; Bye, Anja; Volden, Marte; Slørdahl, Stig A; Odegård, Rønnaug; Skogvoll, Eirik; Wisløff, Ulrik

    2009-02-01

    The aim of the present study was to compare the effects of a multidisciplinary approach (MTG) and aerobic interval training (AIT) on cardiovascular risk factors in overweight adolescents. A total of 62 overweight and obese adolescents from Trøndelag County in Norway, referred to medical treatment at St Olav's Hospital, Trondheim, Norway, were invited to participate. Of these, 54 adolescents (age, 14.0 +/- 0.3 years) were randomized to either AIT (4 x 4 min intervals at 90% of maximal heart rate, each interval separated by 3 min at 70%, twice a week for 3 months) or to MTG (exercise, dietary and psychological advice, twice a month for 12 months). Follow-up testing occurred at 3 and 12 months. VO(2max) (maximal oxygen uptake) increased more after AIT compared with MTG, both at 3 months (11 compared with 0%; P<0.01) and 12 months (12 compared with -1%; P<0.01). AIT enhanced endothelial function compared with MTG at both 3 months (absolute change, 5.1 compared with 3.9%; P<0.01) and 12 months (absolute change, 6.3 compared with 1.0%; P<0.01). AIT was favourable compared with MTG in reducing BMI (body mass index), percentage of fat, MAP (mean arterial blood pressure) and increasing peak oxygen pulse. In addition, AIT induced a more favourable regulation of blood glucose and insulin compared with MTG. In conclusion, the novel findings of the present proof-of-concept study was that 3 months of twice weekly high-intensity exercise sessions reduced several known cardiovascular risk factors in obese adolescents more than that observed after a multitreatment strategy, which was initiated as hospital treatment. Follow-up at 12 months confirmed that AIT improved or maintained these risk factors to a better degree than MTG.

  20. 'Weather Value at Risk': A uniform approach to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change.

    PubMed

    Prettenthaler, Franz; Köberl, Judith; Bird, David Neil

    2016-02-01

    We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures.

  1. Toxicovigilance: A new approach for the hazard identification and risk assessment of toxicants in human beings

    SciTech Connect

    Descotes, Jacques . E-mail: jacques-georges.descotes@chu-lyon.fr; Testud, Francois

    2005-09-01

    The concept of toxicovigilance encompasses the active detection, validation and follow-up of clinical adverse events related to toxic exposures in human beings. Poison centers are key players in this function as poisoning statistics are essential to define the cause, incidence and severity of poisonings occurring in the general population. In addition, the systematic search for unexpected shifts in the recorded causes of poisonings, e.g., following the introduction of a new product, or change in the formulation or recommended use of an old product, allows for a rapid detection of potential adverse health consequences and the implementation of preventive or corrective measures. However, toxicovigilance is genuinely a medical and not only a statistical approach of human toxicity issues. In contrast to epidemiology, toxicovigilance is based on the in-depth medical assessment of acute or chronic intoxications on an individual basis, which requires detailed information that poison centers can rarely obtain via emergency telephone calls and that epidemiologists cannot collect or process. Validation of this medical information must primarily be based on toxicological expertise to help identify causal links between otherwise unexplained pathological conditions and documented toxic exposures. Thus, toxicovigilance can contribute to hazard identification and risk assessment by providing medically validated data which are often overlooked in the process of risk assessment. So far, very few structured toxicovigilance systems have been set up and hopefully national and international initiatives will bridge this gap in our knowledge of the toxicity of many chemicals and commercial products in human beings.

  2. Performance of the modified Poisson regression approach for estimating relative risks from clustered prospective data.

    PubMed

    Yelland, Lisa N; Salter, Amy B; Ryan, Philip

    2011-10-15

    Modified Poisson regression, which combines a log Poisson regression model with robust variance estimation, is a useful alternative to log binomial regression for estimating relative risks. Previous studies have shown both analytically and by simulation that modified Poisson regression is appropriate for independent prospective data. This method is often applied to clustered prospective data, despite a lack of evidence to support its use in this setting. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the performance of the modified Poisson regression approach for estimating relative risks from clustered prospective data, by using generalized estimating equations to account for clustering. A simulation study is conducted to compare log binomial regression and modified Poisson regression for analyzing clustered data from intervention and observational studies. Both methods generally perform well in terms of bias, type I error, and coverage. Unlike log binomial regression, modified Poisson regression is not prone to convergence problems. The methods are contrasted by using example data sets from 2 large studies. The results presented in this article support the use of modified Poisson regression as an alternative to log binomial regression for analyzing clustered prospective data when clustering is taken into account by using generalized estimating equations.

  3. An obesity/cardiometabolic risk reduction disease management program: a population-based approach.

    PubMed

    Villagra, Victor G

    2009-04-01

    Obesity is a critical health concern that has captured the attention of public and private healthcare payers who are interested in controlling costs and mitigating the long-term economic consequences of the obesity epidemic. Population-based approaches to obesity management have been proposed that take advantage of a chronic care model (CCM), including patient self-care, the use of community-based resources, and the realization of care continuity through ongoing communications with patients, information technology, and public policy changes. Payer-sponsored disease management programs represent an important conduit to delivering population-based care founded on similar CCM concepts. Disease management is founded on population-based disease identification, evidence-based care protocols, and collaborative practices between clinicians. While substantial clinician training, technology infrastructure commitments, and financial support at the payer level will be needed for the success of disease management programs in obesity and cardiometabolic risk reduction, these barriers can be overcome with the proper commitment. Disease management programs represent an important tool to combat the growing societal risks of overweight and obesity.

  4. Risk-based approach for systematic development of gastroretentive drug delivery system.

    PubMed

    Mirani, A G; Patankar, S P; Kadam, V J

    2016-10-01

    The research envisioned was the development of diltiazem hydrochloride effervescent floating matrix tablet using a risk-based approach. Preliminarily, the in vitro drug release profile was derived which theoretically simulated the in vivo condition after oral administration. Considering this as a rationale, the formulation development was initiated with defining the quality target product profile (QTPP) and critical quality attributes (CQAs). The preliminary studies were conducted to screen material attributes and process parameters followed by their risk assessment studies to select the plausible factors affecting the drug product CQAs, i.e., floating lag time and drug release profile. A 3(2) full factorial design was used to estimate the effect of the amount of swelling polymer (X 1) and gas-generating agent (X 2) on percent drug release (Q t1h and Q t8h) and floating lag time. Response and interaction plots were generated to examine the variables. Selection of an optimized formulation was done using desirability function and further validated. The model diagnostic plots represent the absence of outliers. The optimized formula obtained by the software was further validated, and the result of drug release and floating lag time was close to the predicted values. In a clear and concise way, the current investigations report the successful development of an effervescent floating matrix tablet for twice daily administration of diltiazem hydrochloride.

  5. Cumulative health risk assessment: integrated approaches for multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects

    SciTech Connect

    Rice, Glenn; Teuschler, Linda; MacDonel, Margaret; Butler, Jim; Finster, Molly; Hertzberg, Rick; Harou, Lynne

    2007-07-01

    Available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: As information about environmental contamination has increased in recent years, so has public interest in the combined effects of multiple contaminants. This interest has been highlighted by recent tragedies such as the World Trade Center disaster and hurricane Katrina. In fact, assessing multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects has long been an issue for contaminated sites, including U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) legacy waste sites. Local citizens have explicitly asked the federal government to account for cumulative risks, with contaminants moving offsite via groundwater flow, surface runoff, and air dispersal being a common emphasis. Multiple exposures range from ingestion and inhalation to dermal absorption and external gamma irradiation. Three types of concerns can lead to cumulative assessments: (1) specific sources or releases - e.g., industrial facilities or accidental discharges; (2) contaminant levels - in environmental media or human tissues; and (3) elevated rates of disease - e.g., asthma or cancer. The specific initiator frames the assessment strategy, including a determination of appropriate models to be used. Approaches are being developed to better integrate a variety of data, extending from environmental to internal co-location of contaminants and combined effects, to support more practical assessments of cumulative health risks. (authors)

  6. A scenario-based modeling approach for emergency evacuation management and risk analysis under multiple uncertainties.

    PubMed

    Lv, Y; Huang, G H; Guo, L; Li, Y P; Dai, C; Wang, X W; Sun, W

    2013-02-15

    Nuclear emergency evacuation is important to prevent radioactive harms by hazardous materials and to limit the accidents' consequences; however, uncertainties are involved in the components and processes of such a management system. In the study, an interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming (IJIP) method is developed for emergency evacuation management under uncertainties. Optimization techniques of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and joint-probabilistic constrained (JPC) programming are incorporated into an integer linear programming framework, so that the approach can deal with uncertainties expressed as joint probability and interval values. The IJIP method can schedule the optimal routes to guarantee the maximum population evacuated away from the effected zone during a finite time. Furthermore, it can also facilitate post optimization analysis to enhance robustness in controlling system violation risk imposed on the joint-probabilistic constraints. The developed method has been applied to a case study of nuclear emergency management; meanwhile, a number of scenarios under different system conditions have been analyzed. It is indicated that the solutions are useful for evacuation management practices. The result of the IJIP method can not only help to raise the capability of disaster responses in a systematic manner, but also provide an insight into complex relationships among evacuation planning, resources utilizations, policy requirements and system risks.

  7. Closing the research loop: a risk-based approach for communicating results of air pollution exposure studies.

    PubMed Central

    Payne-Sturges, Devon C; Schwab, Margo; Buckley, Timothy J

    2004-01-01

    Communities have long been concerned about the environmental health and environmental quality of their neighborhoods. Community-based exposure assessments have the potential to be an effective way to address these concerns. The success of such studies depends critically on the effective translation and communication of study results back to the study participants and the community. In this article we describe the communication approach applied as part of the South Baltimore Community Exposure Study. Specifically, in conjunction with collecting measurements, we asked the community to define questions they wanted answered and the way in which they wanted to receive study results. To meet their needs, we applied the risk assessment framework. The approach we developed helped residents interpret exposure assessment measurements and gave them the raw materials to effect change in their community. The risk-based approach to presenting participant and community results provides the means to move beyond traditional reporting of concentration values in three important ways. First, risk takes into consideration toxicity, thereby enabling a dialogue about community health concerns. Second, risk provides a common denominator so that exposure and risk can be compared and priorities identified. Third, exposure and risk can be summed, thereby meeting the community's need for information regarding cumulative exposure. This approach may be a useful model for other researchers conducting exposure assessments in response to community concerns. PMID:14698927

  8. Development of Triad approach based system for ecological risk assessment for contaminated areas of Kyrgyzstan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kydralieva, Kamilia; Uzbekov, Beksultan; Khudaibergenova, Bermet; Terekhova, Vera; Jorobekova, Sharipa

    2014-05-01

    substances), 2) ecological parameters (assessing changes in microorganism's community structure and functions, bioindication); and 3) toxicological bioassays (utilizing classical endpoints such as survival and reproduction rates, genotoxicity). The output will be consisted of 3 indexes: 1) Environmental Risk Index, quantifying the level of biological damage at population-community level, 2) Biological Vulnerability Index, assessing the potential threats to biological equilibria, and 3) Genotoxicity Index, screening genotoxic effects. Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) will be used to integrate a set of environmental Triad data to be obtained during the project, which will be carried out in order to estimate the potential risk from soil contamination of the highly anthropized areas of Kadzhi-Say, which have been impacted by deposition of heavy metals. The basis of the development under this research is studies with a particular focus concerning the biocenosis mapping of Kyrgyz soils (Mamytova et al., 2003, 2010), investigations on interaction of humic substances with soil contaminants (Jorobekova, Kydralieva, Khudaibergenova, 2004; Khudaibergenova, 2005, 2007), and in addition, technical approach for ecotoxicological assessment of soils (Terekhova, 2007, 2011). Soil ecotoxicological estimation has been studied with a battery of tests using test-organisms of many trophic levels. Currently, bioindication of soils with various humus states is under study (Senesi, Yakimenko 2007; Yakimenko, et al., 2008).

  9. Ecological risks of an old wood impregnation mill: application of the Triad approach.

    PubMed

    Karjalainen, Anne-Mari; Kilpi-Koski, Johanna; Väisänen, Ari O; Penttinen, Sari; van Gestel, Cornelius A M; Penttinen, Olli-Pekka

    2009-07-01

    Although many studies deal with the distribution and mobility of chromated copper arsenate (CCA) metals in soil, the ecotoxicity of CCA-contaminated soils is rarely studied. The Triad approach was applied to determine the ecological risks posed by a CCA mixture at a decommissioned wood impregnation mill in southern Finland. A combination of (1) chemical analyses; (2) toxicity tests with plants (aquatic: Lemna minor; terrestrial: Lactuca sativa), earthworms (Lumbricus rubellus), and enchytraeids (Enchytraeus albidus) conducted on contaminated soils, their aqueous extracts, and well water collected from the site; and (3) determination of the abundance of enchytraeids and nematodes and the bioaccumulation of metals in plants (horsetail) collected from the field were used to assess the actual risk. Although metal concentrations were low, L. minor growth appeared to be reduced by As contamination of the well water. In soil, metals were heterogeneously distributed with total concentrations of 14.8 to 4360 mg As/kg, 15.2 to 1740 mg Cr/kg, and 4.83 to 790 mg Cu/kg. In several samples, concentrations were above Finnish regulatory guideline values and exceeded the half maximal effective concentration (EC50) or 50% lethal concentration (LC50) values for the toxicity of the individual metals to earthworms and enchytraeids, indicating hazards to the ecosystem. (Bio)availability of metals was high, as indicated by weak electrolyte extractions and body residues in L. rubellus and E. albidus exposed in bioassays. Earthworm survival correlated significantly with body metal concentrations, but not with soil total metal concentrations. Enchytraeid responses in the soil bioassays were less sensitive to CCA metal exposure. Plant growth was affected by CCA pollution, with L. sativa root elongation correlating significantly with total and available As concentrations and L. minor development being significantly reduced in H2O extracts of the most contaminated soil sample. Abundance of

  10. Interactions between physical and psychosocial risk factors at work increase the risk of back disorders: an epidemiological approach

    PubMed Central

    Devereux, J. J.; Buckle, P. W.; Vlachonikolis, I. G.

    1999-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To investigate the possible interactions between physical and psychosocial risk factors at work that may be associated with self reported back disorders. METHODS: 891 of 1514 manual workers, delivery drivers, technicians, customer services computer operators, and general office staff reported risk factors at work and back disorders with a self administered questionnaire (59% return rate). Of the 869 respondents with a valid questionnaire, 638 workers were classified in to one of four exposure groups: high physical and high psychosocial; high physical and low psychosocial; low physical and high psychosocial; and low physical and low psychosocial. Low physical and low psychosocial was used as an internal reference group. The exposure criteria were derived from existing epidemiological publications and models for physical and psychosocial work factors. The frequency and amplitude of lifting and the duration spent sitting while experiencing vibration were used as physical exposure criteria. Ordinal values of mental demands, job control, and social support from managers and coworkers were used as psychosocial exposure criteria. RESULTS: The highest increase in risk was found in the high physical and high psychosocial exposure group for symptoms of back disorders. In the crude and multivariate analyses, a departure from an additive risk model was found for the 7 day prevalence of symptoms of a low back disorder and also for a recurrent back disorder not present before the current job but also experienced in the past 7 days. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that an interaction between physical and psychosocial risk factors at work may exist to increase the risk of self reported back disorders. Ergonomic prevention strategies that aim to minimise the risks of symptoms of work related back disorders should not only focus on physical but also on psychosocial risk factors at work. The greatest benefits are likely to be realised when both physical and psychosocial

  11. Using Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Approach for Assessing the Risk of Railway Reconstruction Project in Taiwan

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Shih-Heng; Chang, Dong-Shang

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates the risk factors in railway reconstruction project through complete literature reviews on construction project risks and scrutinizing experiences and challenges of railway reconstructions in Taiwan. Based on the identified risk factors, an assessing framework based on the fuzzy multicriteria decision-making (fuzzy MCDM) approach to help construction agencies build awareness of the critical risk factors on the execution of railway reconstruction project, measure the impact and occurrence likelihood for these risk factors. Subjectivity, uncertainty and vagueness within the assessment process are dealt with using linguistic variables parameterized by trapezoid fuzzy numbers. By multiplying the degree of impact and the occurrence likelihood of risk factors, estimated severity values of each identified risk factor are determined. Based on the assessment results, the construction agencies were informed of what risks should be noti