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Sample records for added risk approach

  1. Underweight Seniors May Have Added Alzheimer's Risk

    MedlinePlus

    ... older adults' risk of the memory-robbing disorder Alzheimer's disease, new research suggests. The study included 280 healthy people aged 62 to 90 with normal mental function. The participants underwent physical exams, genetic testing and brain scans. According to the researchers ...

  2. Approaches to acceptable risk

    SciTech Connect

    Whipple, C.

    1997-04-30

    Several alternative approaches to address the question {open_quotes}How safe is safe enough?{close_quotes} are reviewed and an attempt is made to apply the reasoning behind these approaches to the issue of acceptability of radiation exposures received in space. The approaches to the issue of the acceptability of technological risk described here are primarily analytical, and are drawn from examples in the management of environmental health risks. These include risk-based approaches, in which specific quantitative risk targets determine the acceptability of an activity, and cost-benefit and decision analysis, which generally focus on the estimation and evaluation of risks, benefits and costs, in a framework that balances these factors against each other. These analytical methods tend by their quantitative nature to emphasize the magnitude of risks, costs and alternatives, and to downplay other factors, especially those that are not easily expressed in quantitative terms, that affect acceptance or rejection of risk. Such other factors include the issues of risk perceptions and how and by whom risk decisions are made.

  3. String in AdS black hole: A thermo field dynamic approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cantcheff, M. Botta; Gadelha, Alexandre L.; Marchioro, Dáfni F. Z.; Nedel, Daniel Luiz

    2012-10-01

    Based on Maldacena’s description of an eternal anti-de Sitter (AdS) black hole, we reassess the thermo field dynamics (TFD) formalism in the context of the AdS/CFT correspondence. The model studied here involves the maximally extended AdS-Schwarschild solution and two (noninteracting) copies of the conformal field theory (CFT) associated to the global AdS spacetime, along with an extension of the string by imposing natural gluing conditions in the horizon. We show that the gluing conditions in the horizon define a string boundary state which is identified with the TFD thermal vacuum, globally defined in the Kruskal extension of the AdS black hole. We emphasize the connection of this picture with unitary SU(1,1) TFD formulation, and we show that information about the bulk and the conformal boundary is present in the SU(1,1) parameters. Using the unitary SU(1,1) TFD formulation, a canonical prescription for calculating the world sheet real time thermal Green’s function is made, and the entropy associated with the entanglement of the two CFT’s is calculated.

  4. The Principal Axis Approach to Value-Added Calculation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    He, Qingping; Tymms, Peter

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of the achievement of students and the quality of schools has drawn increasing attention from educational researchers, policy makers, and practitioners. Various test-based accountability and feedback systems involving the use of value-added techniques have been developed for evaluating the effectiveness of individual teaching…

  5. Distributed Reinforcement Learning Approach for Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Celimuge; Kumekawa, Kazuya; Kato, Toshihiko

    In Vehicular Ad hoc Networks (VANETs), general purpose ad hoc routing protocols such as AODV cannot work efficiently due to the frequent changes in network topology caused by vehicle movement. This paper proposes a VANET routing protocol QLAODV (Q-Learning AODV) which suits unicast applications in high mobility scenarios. QLAODV is a distributed reinforcement learning routing protocol, which uses a Q-Learning algorithm to infer network state information and uses unicast control packets to check the path availability in a real time manner in order to allow Q-Learning to work efficiently in a highly dynamic network environment. QLAODV is favored by its dynamic route change mechanism, which makes it capable of reacting quickly to network topology changes. We present an analysis of the performance of QLAODV by simulation using different mobility models. The simulation results show that QLAODV can efficiently handle unicast applications in VANETs.

  6. Vascular risk and Aβ interact to reduce cortical thickness in AD vulnerable brain regions

    PubMed Central

    Reed, Bruce R.; Madison, Cindee M.; Wirth, Miranka; Marchant, Natalie L.; Kriger, Stephen; Mack, Wendy J.; Sanossian, Nerses; DeCarli, Charles; Chui, Helena C.; Weiner, Michael W.; Jagust, William J.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: The objective of this study was to define whether vascular risk factors interact with β-amyloid (Aβ) in producing changes in brain structure that could underlie the increased risk of Alzheimer disease (AD). Methods: Sixty-six cognitively normal and mildly impaired older individuals with a wide range of vascular risk factors were included in this study. The presence of Aβ was assessed using [11C]Pittsburgh compound B–PET imaging, and cortical thickness was measured using 3-tesla MRI. Vascular risk was measured with the Framingham Coronary Risk Profile Index. Results: Individuals with high levels of vascular risk factors have thinner frontotemporal cortex independent of Aβ. These frontotemporal regions are also affected in individuals with Aβ deposition, but the latter show additional thinning in parietal cortices. Aβ and vascular risk were found to interact in posterior (especially in parietal) brain regions, where Aβ has its greatest effect. In this way, the negative effect of Aβ in posterior regions is increased by the presence of vascular risk. Conclusion: Aβ and vascular risk interact to enhance cortical thinning in posterior brain regions that are particularly vulnerable to AD. These findings give insight concerning the mechanisms whereby vascular risk increases the likelihood of developing AD and supports the therapeutic intervention of controlling vascular risk for the prevention of AD. PMID:24907234

  7. Adding network approaches to a neurobiological framework of resilience.

    PubMed

    Levit-Binnun, Nava; Golland, Yulia

    2015-01-01

    In their paper, Kalisch et al. make an important attempt to create a unifying theoretical framework for the neuroscientific study of general resilience mechanisms. We suggest that such attempts can benefit tremendously by incorporating the recently emerging network approaches that enable the characterization of complex brain network architecture and dynamics, in both health and disease. PMID:26786965

  8. Neurosonological Examination: A Non-Invasive Approach for the Detection of Cerebrovascular Impairment in AD

    PubMed Central

    Urbanova, Barbora; Tomek, Ales; Mikulik, Robert; Magerova, Hana; Horinek, Daniel; Hort, Jakub

    2014-01-01

    There has been a growing interest in vascular impairment associated with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). This interest was stimulated by the findings of higher incidence of vascular risk factors in AD. Signs of vascular impairment were investigated notably in the field of imaging methods. Our aim was to explore ultrasonographic studies of extra- and intracranial vessels in patients with AD and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and define implications for diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of the disease. The most frequently studied parameters with extracranial ultrasound are intima-media thickness in common carotid artery, carotid atherosclerosis, and total cerebral blood flow. The transcranial ultrasound concentrates mostly on flow velocities, pulsatility indices, cerebrovascular reserve capacity, and cerebral microembolization. Studies suggest that there is morphological and functional impairment of cerebral circulation in AD compared to healthy subjects. Ultrasound as a non-invasive method could be potentially useful in identifying individuals in a higher risk of progression of cognitive decline. PMID:24478651

  9. APPROACHES FOR INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recognizing the need to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of risk assessments globally, the WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the European Commission, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development form...

  10. Added sugars and risk factors for obesity, diabetes and heart disease.

    PubMed

    Rippe, J M; Angelopoulos, T J

    2016-03-01

    The effects of added sugars on various chronic conditions are highly controversial. Some investigators have argued that added sugars increase the risk of obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease. However, few randomized controlled trials are available to support these assertions. The literature is further complicated by animal studies, as well as studies which compare pure fructose to pure glucose (neither of which is consumed to any appreciable degree in the human diet) and studies where large doses of added sugars beyond normal levels of human consumption have been administered. Various scientific and public health organizations have offered disparate recommendations for upper limits of added sugar. In this article, we will review recent randomized controlled trials and prospective cohort studies. We conclude that the normal added sugars in the human diet (for example, sucrose, high-fructose corn syrup and isoglucose) when consumed within the normal range of normal human consumption or substituted isoenergetically for other carbohydrates, do not appear to cause a unique risk of obesity, diabetes or cardiovascular disease. PMID:27001643

  11. Adding carotid total plaque area to the Framingham risk score improves cardiovascular risk classification

    PubMed Central

    Perez, Hernan A.; Spence, John David; Armando, Luis J.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Cardiovascular events (CE) due to atherosclerosis are preventable. Identification of high-risk patients helps to focus resources on those most likely to benefit from expensive therapy. Atherosclerosis is not considered for patient risk categorization, even though a fraction of CE are predicted by Framingham risk factors. Our objective was to assess the incremental value of combining total plaque area (TPA) with the Framingham risk score (FramSc) using post-test probability (Ptp) in order to categorize risk in patients without CE and identify those at high risk and requiring intensive treatment. Material and methods A descriptive cross-sectional study was performed in the primary care setting in an Argentine population aged 22–90 years without CE. Both FramSc based on body mass index and Ptp-TPA were employed in 2035 patients for risk stratification and the resulting reclassification was compared. Total plaque area was measured with a high-resolution duplex ultrasound scanner. Results 57% male, 35% hypertensive, 27% hypercholesterolemia, 14% diabetes. 20.1% were low, 28.5% moderate, and 51.5% high risk. When patients were reclassified, 36% of them changed status; 24.1% migrated to a higher and 13.6% to a lower risk level (κ index = 0.360, SE κ = 0.16, p < 0.05, FramSc vs. Ptp-TPA). With this reclassification, 19.3% were low, 18.9% moderate and 61.8% high risk. Conclusions Quantification of Ptp-TPA leads to higher risk estimation than FramSc, suggesting that Ptp-TPA may be more sensitive than FramSc as a screening tool. If our observation is confirmed with a prospective study, this reclassification would improve the long-term benefits related to CE prevention. PMID:27279842

  12. Risk management: Time for innovative approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rao, Venkateswara R.

    1995-05-01

    Risk management practices under the current environmental regulations is a long, complex process that considers scientific, technologic, and management factors to develop various regulatory standards and pollution control measures. Using the mandatory enforcement approach, sometimes referred to as “command-and-control”, a set of preliminary environmental goals, such as better air and water qualities, were achieved. However, the information-intensive nature of the risk management process and the lack of flexibility in conventional regulatory methods to changing economic and technologic realities of the decade has created interest among risk managers to examine some innovative management approaches. Above all, environmental problems of a global scale require novel management methods while striving to achieve the desired environmental goals. As the principal analytical tool in risk management, quantitative risk assessment exerts considerable influence on the risk management process. Therefore, advances in risk management are closely associated with scientific developments that enhance the risk assessment process, particularly those efforts aimed at improving human exposure and toxicity assessments. Market incentives, information dissemination, creative enforcement practices, and interagency and intergovernmental interactions were identified as the key elements of innovative environmental risk management practices. This paper will present an overview of the emerging innovative risk management approaches.

  13. Probabilistic Approaches for Evaluating Space Shuttle Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vesely, William

    2001-01-01

    The objectives of the Space Shuttle PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) are to: (1) evaluate mission risks; (2) evaluate uncertainties and sensitivities; (3) prioritize contributors; (4) evaluate upgrades; (5) track risks; and (6) provide decision tools. This report discusses the significance of a Space Shuttle PRA and its participants. The elements and type of losses to be included are discussed. The program and probabilistic approaches are then discussed.

  14. New Insights on the Risk for Cardiovascular Disease in African Americans: The Role of Added Sugars

    PubMed Central

    Saab, Karim R.; Kendrick, Jessica; Yracheta, Joseph M.; Lanaspa, Miguel A.; Pollard, Maisha

    2015-01-01

    African Americans are at increased risk for cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, including obesity, high BP, diabetes, CKD, myocardial infarction, and stroke. Here we summarize the current risks and provide an overview of the underlying risk factors that may account for these associations. By reviewing the relationship between cardiovascular and renal diseases and the African-American population during the early 20th century, the historic and recent associations of African heritage with cardiovascular disease, and modern population genetics, it is possible to assemble strong hypotheses for the primary underlying mechanisms driving the increased frequency of disease in African Americans. Our studies suggest that underlying genetic mechanisms may be responsible for the increased frequency of high BP and kidney disease in African Americans, with particular emphasis on the role of APOL1 polymorphisms in causing kidney disease. In contrast, the Western diet, particularly the relatively high intake of fructose-containing sugars and sweetened beverages, appears to be the dominant force driving the increased risk of diabetes, obesity, and downstream complications. Given that intake of added sugars is a remediable risk factor, we recommend clinical trials to examine the reduction of sweetened beverages as a primary means for reducing cardiovascular risk in African Americans. PMID:25090991

  15. Russian risk assessment methods and approaches

    SciTech Connect

    Dvorack, M.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Smith, R.E.

    1996-07-01

    One of the benefits resulting from the collapse of the Soviet Union is the increased dialogue currently taking place between American and Russian nuclear weapons scientists in various technical arenas. One of these arenas currently being investigated involves collaborative studies which illustrate how risk assessment is perceived and utilized in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). The collaborative studies indicate that, while similarities exist with respect to some methodologies, the assumptions and approaches in performing risk assessments were, and still are, somewhat different in the FSU as opposed to that in the US. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the present knowledge of risk assessment methodologies and philosophies within the two largest nuclear weapons laboratories of the Former Soviet Union, Arzamas-16 and Chelyabinsk-70. Furthermore, This paper will address the relative progress of new risk assessment methodologies, such as Fuzzy Logic, within the framework of current risk assessment methods at these two institutes.

  16. Approaches to acceptable risk: a critical guide

    SciTech Connect

    Fischhoff, B.; Lichtenstein, S.; Slovic, P.; Keeney, R.; Derby, S.

    1980-12-01

    Acceptable-risk decisions are an essential step in the management of technological hazards. In many situations, they constitute the weak (or missing) link in the management process. The absence of an adequate decision-making methodology often produces indecision, inconsistency, and dissatisfaction. The result is neither good for hazard management nor good for society. This report offers a critical analysis of the viability of various approaches as guides to acceptable-risk decisions. This report seeks to define acceptable-risk decisions and to examine some frequently proposed, but inappropriate, solutions. 255 refs., 22 figs., 25 tabs.

  17. Political side of risk: a new approach

    SciTech Connect

    Sorenson, J.B.; Trauth, C.A. Jr.

    1980-01-01

    The resolution of many of the Nation's most-serious problems today is hampered by our apparent inability to systematically deal with the socio-political dimensions of the societal acceptance of risks in areas of technical development, decision making, and policy formulation. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the energy field. The nature of public hazards has changed drastically during the past half century or so, driving public considerations of risk into the political realm. This has given many of the socio-political parameters underlying individual, group, and institutional perception and acceptance of risk an importance not typically recognized in technical approaches to risk assessment. As a result, there is now a large gap between technically based views of risk and societal views of risk which, the authors feel, is largely responsible for impeding the resolution of the national problems alluded to above. This paper proposes a general approach toward closing this gap, by using indicators from the political system to measure public perceptions and acceptance of risk, as a continuing function of time, to provide the technical community and policy and decision makers a basis from which to more effectively meet societal environmental, safety, and health goals. 15 references, 6 figures.

  18. Reducing added sugar intake in Norway by replacing sugar sweetened beverages with beverages containing intense sweeteners - a risk benefit assessment.

    PubMed

    Husøy, T; Mangschou, B; Fotland, T Ø; Kolset, S O; Nøtvik Jakobsen, H; Tømmerberg, I; Bergsten, C; Alexander, J; Frost Andersen, L

    2008-09-01

    A risk benefit assessment in Norway on the intake of added sugar, intense sweeteners and benzoic acid from beverages, and the influence of changing from sugar sweetened to diet beverages was performed. National dietary surveys were used in the exposure assessment, and the content of added sugar and food additives were calculated based on actual contents used in beverages and sales volumes provided by the manufactures. The daily intake of sugar, intense sweeteners and benzoic acid were estimated for children (1- to 13-years-old) and adults according to the current intake level and a substitution scenario where it was assumed that all consumed beverages contained intense sweeteners. The change from sugar sweetened to diet beverages reduced the total intake of added sugar for all age groups but especially for adolescent. This change did not result in intake of intense sweeteners from beverages above the respective ADIs. However, the intake of acesulfame K approached ADI for small children and the total intake of benzoic acid was increased to above ADI for most age groups. The highest intake of benzoic acid was observed for 1- to 2-year-old children, and benzoic acid intake in Norwegian children is therefore considered to be of special concern. PMID:18639604

  19. An existential approach to risk perception.

    PubMed

    Langford, Ian H

    2002-02-01

    Existential, or existential-phenomenological philosophical approaches to the social psychology of risk perception provide a novel framework for understanding issues that are common to all humanity, such as fear of death, freedom and responsibility, isolation and meaninglessness, as these anxieties are a function of existing, or being-in-the-world. These fundamental anxieties can be related theoretically to the ways people perceive risks within social and cultural milieus, and can also be used practically within case studies, as demonstrated in the three examples presented, which examine perceptions of climate change, food-related risks, and environmental awareness via a mixture of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The discussion focuses on the possible insights that can be gained from taking an existential perspective on risk perception, and relates notions of contemporary technologically-oriented societies to the existential challenges faced by individuals and societies in the contemporary world. PMID:12017353

  20. 12 CFR 3.152 - Simple risk weight approach (SRWA).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Simple risk weight approach (SRWA). 3.152... STANDARDS Risk-Weighted Assets-Internal Ratings-Based and Advanced Measurement Approaches Risk-Weighted Assets for Equity Exposures § 3.152 Simple risk weight approach (SRWA). (a) General. Under the SRWA,...

  1. A physical approach on flood risk vulnerability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazzorana, Bruno; Fuchs, Sven; Keiler, Margreth

    2013-04-01

    The design of efficient flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the elements exposed to flood hazard. Recently, extensive research efforts were undertaken to develop and refine empirical relationships linking the structural vulnerability of buildings to the intensity of the impacting water-related hazard processes. These empirical vulnerability functions allow for an estimation of the expected direct losses as a result of the hazard scenario on the basis of a spatially explicit representation of the process patterns and the elements at risk, and improve both risk assessments and cost-benefit analyses of planned mitigation strategies. However, due to the underlying empiricism of such vulnerability functions, the physics of the damage generating mechanisms remain unveiled, and, as such, the applicability of the empirical approach for planning hazard-proof residential buildings is rather limited. Therefore, we propose a conceptual assessment scheme to close this gap. This assessment scheme comprises distinct analytical steps: (a) modelling the process intensity and (b) the impact on the element at risk exposed, (c) the physical response of the building envelope, (d) the damage accounting and (f) the economic damage valuation. This dynamic assessment supports all relevant planning activities with respect to a minimisation of flood hazard losses, and can be implemented in the operational risk assessment procedure.

  2. MYRRHA, a Pb-Bi experimental ADS: specific approach to radiation protection aspects.

    PubMed

    Abderrahim, H Aït; Aoust, Th; Malambu, E; Sobolev, V; Van Tichelen, K; De Bruyn, D; Maes, D; Haeck, W; Van den Eynde, G

    2005-01-01

    Since 1998, SCK*CEN, in partnership with IBA s.a. and many European research laboratories, is designing a multipurpose accelerator driven system (ADS) for Research and Development (R&D) applications-MYRRHA-and is conducting an associated R&D support programme. MYRRHA is an ADS under development at Mol in Belgium and is aiming to serve as a basis for the European experimental ADS to provide protons and neutrons for various R&D applications. It consists of a proton accelerator delivering a 350 MeV x 5 mA proton beam to a liquid Pb-Bi spallation target that in turn couples to a Pb-Bi cooled, subcritical fast core. In the first stage, the project focuses mainly on demonstration of the ADS concept, safety research on sub-critical systems and nuclear waste transmutation studies. In a later stage, the device will also be dedicated to research on structural materials, nuclear fuel, liquid metal technology and associated aspects, and on sub-critical reactor physics. Subsequently, it will be used for research on applications such as radioisotope production. A first preliminary conceptual design file of MYRRHA was completed by the end of 2001 and has been reviewed by an International Technical Guidance Committee, which concluded that there are no show stoppers in the project and even though some topics such as the safety studies and the fuel qualification need to be addressed more deeply before concluding it. In this paper, we are reporting on the state-of-the art of the MYRRHA project at the beginning of 2004 and in particular on the radiation shielding assessment and the radiation protection particular aspects through a remote handling operation approach in order to minimise the personnel exposure to radiation. PMID:16604674

  3. Nutritional approaches in the risk reduction and management of Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Mi, Weiqian; van Wijk, Nick; Cansev, Mehmet; Sijben, John W C; Kamphuis, Patrick J G H

    2013-09-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a heterogeneous and devastating neurodegenerative disease with increasing socioeconomic burden for society. In the past 30 y, notwithstanding advances in the understanding of the pathogenesis of the disease and consequent development of therapeutic approaches to novel pathogenic targets, no cure has so far emerged. This contribution focuses on recent nutritional approaches in the risk reduction and management of AD with emphasis on factors providing a rationale for nutritional approaches in AD, including compromised nutritional status, altered nutrient uptake and metabolism, and nutrient requirements for synapse formation. Collectively these factors are believed to result in specific nutritional requirement in AD. The chapter also emphasizes investigated nutritional interventions in patients with AD, including studies with single nutrients and with the specific nutrient combination Fortasyn Connect and discusses the current shift of paradigm to intervene in earlier stages of AD, which offers opportunities for investigating nutritional strategies to reduce the risk for disease progression. Fortasyn Connect was designed to enhance synapse formation and function in AD by addressing the putative specific nutritional requirements and contains docosahexaenoic acid, eicosapentaenoic acid, uridine-5'-mono-phosphate, choline, phospholipids, antioxidants, and B vitamins. Two randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with the medical food Souvenaid, containing Fortasyn Connect, showed that this intervention improved memory performance in mild, drug-naïve patients with AD. Electroencephalography outcome in one of these clinical studies suggests that Souvenaid has an effect on brain functional connectivity, which is a derivative of changed synaptic activity. Thus, these studies suggest that nutritional requirements in AD can be successfully addressed and result in improvements in behavioral and neuro-physiological alterations that are characteristic to AD

  4. An Integrated Approach to Managing Business Process Risk Using Rich Organizational Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Islam, M. M. Zahidul; Bhuiyan, Moshiur; Krishna, Aneesh; Ghose, Aditya

    Business processes represent the operational capabilities of an organization. In order to ensure process continuity, the effective management of risks becomes an area of key concern. In this paper we propose an approach for supporting risk identification with the use of higher-level organizational models. We provide some intuitive metrics for extracting measures of actor criticality and vulnerability from organizational models. This helps direct risk management to areas of critical importance within organization models. Additionally, the information can be used to assess alternative organizational structures in domains where risk mitigation is crucial. At the process level, these measures can be used to help direct improvements to the robustness and failsafe capabilities of critical or vulnerable processes. We believe our novel approach, will provide added benefits when used with other approaches to risk management during business process management, that do not reference the greater organizational context during risk assessment.

  5. An adaptive neural swarm approach for intrusion defense in ad hoc networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cannady, James

    2011-06-01

    Wireless sensor networks (WSN) and mobile ad hoc networks (MANET) are being increasingly deployed in critical applications due to the flexibility and extensibility of the technology. While these networks possess numerous advantages over traditional wireless systems in dynamic environments they are still vulnerable to many of the same types of host-based and distributed attacks common to those systems. Unfortunately, the limited power and bandwidth available in WSNs and MANETs, combined with the dynamic connectivity that is a defining characteristic of the technology, makes it extremely difficult to utilize traditional intrusion detection techniques. This paper describes an approach to accurately and efficiently detect potentially damaging activity in WSNs and MANETs. It enables the network as a whole to recognize attacks, anomalies, and potential vulnerabilities in a distributive manner that reflects the autonomic processes of biological systems. Each component of the network recognizes activity in its local environment and then contributes to the overall situational awareness of the entire system. The approach utilizes agent-based swarm intelligence to adaptively identify potential data sources on each node and on adjacent nodes throughout the network. The swarm agents then self-organize into modular neural networks that utilize a reinforcement learning algorithm to identify relevant behavior patterns in the data without supervision. Once the modular neural networks have established interconnectivity both locally and with neighboring nodes the analysis of events within the network can be conducted collectively in real-time. The approach has been shown to be extremely effective in identifying distributed network attacks.

  6. Ad Hoc Query Support For Very Large Simulation Mesh Data: The Metadata Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, B; Snapp, R; Musick, R; Critchlow, T

    2001-12-17

    We present our approach to enabling approximate ad hoc queries on terabyte-scale mesh data generated from large scientific simulations through the extension and integration of database, statistical, and data mining techniques. There are several significant barriers to overcome in achieving this objective. First, large-scale simulation data is already at the multi-terabyte scale and growing quickly, thus rendering traditional forms of interactive data exploration and query processing untenable. Second, a priori knowledge of user queries is not available, making it impossible to tune special-purpose solutions. Third, the data has spatial and temporal aspects, as well as arbitrarily high dimensionality, which exacerbates the task of finding compact, accurate, and easy-to-compute data models. Our approach is to preprocess the mesh data to generate highly compressed, lossy models that are used in lieu of the original data to answer users' queries. This approach leads to interesting challenges. The model (equivalently, the content-oriented metadata) being generated must be smaller than the original data by at least an order of magnitude. Second, the metadata representation must contain enough information to support a broad class of queries. Finally, the accuracy and speed of the queries must be within the tolerances required by users. In this paper we give an overview of ongoing development efforts with an emphasis on extracting metadata and using it in query processing.

  7. An alternate approach to assessing climate risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, Casey; Wilby, Robert L.

    2012-10-01

    U.S. federal agencies are now required to review the potential impacts of climate change on their assets and missions. Similar arrangements are also in place in the United Kingdom under reporting powers for key infrastructure providers (http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/sectors/reporting-authorities/reporting-authorities-reports/). These requirements reflect growing concern about climate resilience and the management of long-lived assets. At one level, analyzing climate risks is a matter of due diligence, given mounting scientific evidence. However, there is no consensus about the means for doing so nor about whether climate models are even ft for the purpose; in addition, several important issues are often overlooked when incorporating climate information into adaptation decisions. An alternative to the scenarioled strategy, such as an approach based on a vulnerability analysis ("stress test"), may identify practical options for resource managers.

  8. Peer Relationship Problems of Children with AD/HD: Risk Factors and New Directions in Interventions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ozdemir, Selda

    2009-01-01

    This review integrates and evaluates research conducted on possible contributing factors to peer relationship problems of children with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (AD/HD). Substantial evidence suggests that children with AD/HD have serious problems in multiple aspects of their relationships with peers. Difficulties resulting from…

  9. The added value of system robustness analysis for flood risk management illustrated by a case on the IJssel River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mens, M. J. P.; Klijn, F.

    2015-02-01

    Decision makers in fluvial flood risk management increasingly acknowledge that they have to prepare for extreme events. Flood risk is the most common basis on which to compare flood risk-reducing strategies. To take uncertainties into account the criteria of robustness and flexibility are advocated as well. This paper discusses the added value of robustness as an additional decision criterion compared to single-value flood risk only. We do so by quantifying flood risk and system robustness for alternative system configurations of the IJssel River valley in the Netherlands. We found that robustness analysis has added value in three respects: (1) it does not require assumptions on current and future flood probabilities, since flood consequences are shown as a function of discharge; (2) it shows the sensitivity of the system to varying discharges; and (3) it supports a discussion on the acceptability of flood damage. We conclude that robustness analysis is a valuable addition to flood risk analysis in support of long-term decision-making on flood risk management.

  10. Adding A Measure Of Patient Self-Management Capability To Risk Assessment Can Improve Prediction Of High Costs.

    PubMed

    Hibbard, Judith H; Greene, Jessica; Sacks, Rebecca; Overton, Valerie; Parrotta, Carmen D

    2016-03-01

    We explored whether supplementing a clinical risk score with a behavioral measure could improve targeting of the patients most in need of supports that reduce their risk of costly service utilization. Using data from a large health system that determines patient self-management capability using the Patient Activation Measure, we examined utilization of hospital and emergency department care by the 15 percent of patients with the highest clinical risk scores. After controlling for risk scores and placing patients within segments based on their level of activation in 2011, we found that the lower the activation level, the higher the utilization and cost of hospital services in each of the following three years. These findings demonstrate that adding a measure of patient self-management capability to a risk assessment can improve prediction of high care costs and inform actions to better meet patient needs. PMID:26953304

  11. Flooding Risk for Coastal Infrastructure: a Stakeholder-Oriented Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plater, A. J.; Prime, T.; Brown, J. M.; Knight, P. J.; Morrissey, K.

    2015-12-01

    A flood risk assessment for coastal energy infrastructure in the UK with respect to long-term sea-level rise and extreme water levels has been conducted using a combination of numerical modelling approaches (LISFLOOD-FP, SWAB, XBeach-G, POLCOMS). Model outputs have been incorporated into a decision-support tool that enables users from a wide spectrum of coastal stakeholders (e.g. nuclear energy, utility providers, local government, environmental regulators, communities) to explore the potential impacts of flooding on both operational (events to 10 years) and strategic (10 to 50 years) timescales. Examples illustrate the physical and economic impacts of flooding from combined extreme water levels, wave overtopping and high river flow for Fleetwood, NW England; changes in the extent of likely flooding arising from an extreme event due to sea-level rise for Oldbury, SW England; and the relative vulnerability to overtopping and breaching of sea defences for Dungeness, SE England. The impacts of a potential large-scale beach recharge scheme to mitigate coastal erosion and flood risk along the southern shoreline of Dungeness are also examined using a combination of coastal evolution and particle-tracking modelling. The research goal is to provide an evidence base for resource allocation, investment in interventions, and communication and dialogue in relation to sea-level rise to 2500 AD.

  12. Emergency Situation Prediction Mechanism: A Novel Approach for Intelligent Transportation System Using Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks

    PubMed Central

    Gokulakrishnan, P.

    2015-01-01

    In Indian four-lane express highway, millions of vehicles are travelling every day. Accidents are unfortunate and frequently occurring in these highways causing deaths, increase in death toll, and damage to infrastructure. A mechanism is required to avoid such road accidents at the maximum to reduce the death toll. An Emergency Situation Prediction Mechanism, a novel and proactive approach, is proposed in this paper for achieving the best of Intelligent Transportation System using Vehicular Ad Hoc Network. ESPM intends to predict the possibility of occurrence of an accident in an Indian four-lane express highway. In ESPM, the emergency situation prediction is done by the Road Side Unit based on (i) the Status Report sent by the vehicles in the range of RSU and (ii) the road traffic flow analysis done by the RSU. Once the emergency situation or accident is predicted in advance, an Emergency Warning Message is constructed and disseminated to all vehicles in the area of RSU to alert and prevent the vehicles from accidents. ESPM performs well in emergency situation prediction in advance to the occurrence of an accident. ESPM predicts the emergency situation within 0.20 seconds which is comparatively less than the statistical value. The prediction accuracy of ESPM against vehicle density is found better in different traffic scenarios. PMID:26065014

  13. Mean field game theoretic approach for security in mobile ad-hoc networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yanwei; Tang, Helen; Yu, F. Richard; Huang, Minyi

    2013-05-01

    Game theory can provide a useful tool to study the security problem in mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs). Most existing work on applying game theories to security only considers two players in the security game model: an attacker and a defender. While this assumption is valid for a network with centralized administration, it may not be realistic in MANETs, where centralized administration is not available. Consequently, each individual node in a MANET should be treated separately in the security game model. In this paper, using recent advances in mean field game theory, we propose a novel game theoretic approach for security in MANETs. Mean field game theory provides a powerful mathematical tool for problems with a large number of players. Since security defence mechanisms consume precious system resources (e.g., energy), the proposed scheme considers not only the security requirement of MANETs but also the system resources. In addition, each node only needs to know its own state information and the aggregate effect of the other nodes in the MANET. Therefore, the proposed scheme is a fully distributed scheme. Simulation results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.

  14. DEVELOPMENT OF APPROACHES FOR CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A population focused cumulative health risk assessment of a contaminated site or situation can include the evaluation of toxic risk from multiple chemicals, by multiple pathways, over different time frames of exposure, with multiple sensitive population subgroups, and possibly ot...

  15. An Integrated Approach to Risk Assessment for Concurrent Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila; Voss, Luke; Feather, Martin; Cornford, Steve

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes an approach to risk assessment and analysis suited to the early phase, concurrent design of a space mission. The approach integrates an agile, multi-user risk collection tool, a more in-depth risk analysis tool, and repositories of risk information. A JPL developed tool, named RAP, is used for collecting expert opinions about risk from designers involved in the concurrent design of a space mission. Another in-house developed risk assessment tool, named DDP, is used for the analysis.

  16. The role of Ad-36 as a risk factor in males with gynecomastia.

    PubMed

    Kocazeybek, Bekir; Saribas, Suat; Ergin, Sevgi

    2015-12-01

    Gynecomastia is highly prevalent worldwide and Adenovirus-36 (Ad-36), recently implicated in increased adipose tissue deposition due to its affinity for adipose tissue, is a potential etiological agent in the development of obesity and therefore we hypothesized that Ad-36 may also play a role in the development of gynecomastia by possibly accompanying increased regional adiposity. To support our hypothesis, we conducted a study that included 33 adult males with gynecomastia (PG) and 15 adult males as the patient control group (HCG). Leptin and adiponectin levels were monitored using ELISA. A significant difference in Ad-36 antibody positivity was found between the groups (p<0.05). Average leptin levels were found to be higher, but average adiponectin levels were found to be lower in Ad-36 Ab(+) patient group. No Ad-36 DNA was detected in any tissue samples. In conclusion, we hypothesize that low-grade chronic inflammation, which was caused by Ad-36 infection, possibly caused an increase in circulating leptin. This in turn may have caused an increase in local or circulating estrogens and/or the estrogen/androgen ratio by stimulating the aromatase enzyme activity in adipose stromal cells and breast tissues. We suggest that gynecomastia may develop following an increase in aromatase enzyme activity, by which more oestrogen is produced and the estrogen-androgen balance disrupted. Also, regional adipose tissue enlargements may cause the excessive production of estrogens leading to gynecomastia. Adipose tissue has been recognized as a major endocrine organ in recent years. Another plausible explanation is excessive aromatization of androgens to estrogens by peripheral adipose tissue may promote gynecomastia in males. Moreover, our results suggest that there might be a relationship between Ad-36 and gynecomastia. PMID:26394544

  17. Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Approach to Enterprise Risk Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauder, Stephen P.

    2014-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Division has implemented an innovative approach to Enterprise Risk Management under a unique governance structure and streamlined integration model. ESD's mission is to design and build the capability to extend human existence to deep space. The Enterprise consists of three Programs: Space Launch System (SLS), Orion, and Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). The SLS is a rocket and launch system that will be capable of powering humans, habitats, and support systems to deep space. Orion will be the first spacecraft in history capable of taking humans to multiple destinations within deep space. GSDO is modernizing Kennedy's spaceport to launch spacecraft built and designed by both NASA and private industry. ESD's approach to Enterprise Risk Management is commensurate with affordability and a streamlined management philosophy. ESD Enterprise Risk Management leverages off of the primary mechanisms for integration within the Enterprise. The Enterprise integration approach emphasizes delegation of authority to manage and execute the majority of cross-program activities and products to the individual Programs, while maintaining the overall responsibility for all cross-program activities at the Division. The intent of the ESD Enterprise Risk Management approach is to improve risk communication, to avoid replication and/or contradictory strategies, and to minimize overhead process burden. This is accomplished by the facilitation and integration of risk information within ESD. The ESD Division risks, Orion risks, SLS risks, and GSDO risks are owned and managed by the applicable Program. When the Programs have shared risks with multiple consequences, they are jointly owned and managed. When a risk is associated with the integrated system that involves more than one Program in condition, consequence, or mitigation plan, it is considered an Exploration Systems Integration

  18. Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

    PubMed

    Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

    2014-12-01

    Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants. PMID:24046097

  19. Fuzzy inference systems, ASKE, knowledge value added, and Monte Carlo risk simulation for evaluating intangible human capital investments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mun, Johnathan; de Albuquerque, Nelson R.; Liong, Choong-Yeun; Salleh, Abdul Razak

    2013-04-01

    This paper presents the ASKE-Risk method, coupled with Fuzzy Inference Systems, and Monte Carlo Risk Simulation to measure and prioritize Individual Technical Competence of a value chain to assess changes in the human capital of a company. ASKE is an extension of the method Knowledge Value Added, which proposes the use of a proxy variable for measuring the flow of knowledge used in a key process, creating a relationship between the company's financial results and the resources used in each of the business processes.

  20. Stature and frailty during the Black Death: the effect of stature on risks of epidemic mortality in London, A.D. 1348–1350

    PubMed Central

    DeWitte, Sharon N.; Hughes-Morey, Gail

    2013-01-01

    Recent research has shown that preexisting health condition affected an individual’s risk of dying during the 14th-century Black Death. However, a previous study of the effect of adult stature on risk of mortality during the epidemic failed to find a relationship between the two; this result is perhaps surprising given the well-documented inverse association between stature and mortality in human populations. We suggest that the previous study used an analytical approach that was more complex than was necessary for an assessment of the effect of adult stature on risk of mortality. This study presents a reanalysis of data on adult stature and age-at-death during the Black Death in London, 1348–1350 AD. The results indicate that short stature increased risks of mortality during the medieval epidemic, consistent with previous work that revealed a negative effect of poor health on risk of mortality during the Black Death. However, the results from a normal, non-epidemic mortality comparison sample do not show an association between stature and risks of mortality among adults under conditions of normal mortality. Fisher’s exact tests, used to determine whether individuals who were growing during the Great Famine of 1315–1322 were more likely to be of short stature than those who did not endure the famine, revealed no differences between the two groups, suggesting that the famine was not a source of variation in stature among those who died during the Black Death. PMID:24363485

  1. Preventing the link between SES and high-risk behaviors: "value-added" education, drug use and delinquency in high-risk, urban schools.

    PubMed

    Tobler, Amy L; Komro, Kelli A; Dabroski, Alexis; Aveyard, Paul; Markham, Wolfgang A

    2011-06-01

    We examined whether schools achieving better than expected educational outcomes for their students influence the risk of drug use and delinquency among urban, racial/ethnic minority youth. Adolescents (n = 2,621), who were primarily African American and Hispanic and enrolled in Chicago public schools (n = 61), completed surveys in 6th (aged 12) and 8th (aged 14) grades. Value-added education was derived from standardized residuals of regression equations predicting school-level academic achievement and attendance from students' sociodemographic profiles and defined as having higher academic achievement and attendance than that expected given the sociodemographic profile of the schools' student composition. Multilevel logistic regression estimated the effects of value-added education on students' drug use and delinquency. After considering initial risk behavior, value-added education was associated with lower incidence of alcohol, cigarette and marijuana use; stealing; and participating in a group-against-group fight. Significant beneficial effects of value-added education remained for cigarette and marijuana use, stealing and participating in a group-against-group fight after adjustment for individual- and school-level covariates. Alcohol use (past month and heavy episodic) showed marginally significant trends in the hypothesized direction after these adjustments. Inner-city schools may break the links between social disadvantage, drug use and delinquency. Identifying the processes related to value-added education in order to improve school environments is warranted given the high costs associated with individual-level interventions. PMID:21360062

  2. A Vocabulary-Added Reading Intervention for English Learners At-Risk of Reading Difficulties

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Filippini, Alexis L.; Gerber, Michael M.; Leafstedt, Jill M.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the added value of a vocabulary plus phonological awareness (vocab+) intervention against a phonological awareness (PA only) intervention only. The vocabulary intervention built networks among words through attention to morphological and semantic relationships. This supplementary classroom instruction augmented existing…

  3. INDICATORS OF RISK: AN ANALYSIS APPROACH FOR IMPROVED RIVER MANAGEMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A risk index is an approach to measuring the level of risk to the plants and/or animals (biota) in a certain area using water and habitat quality information. A new technique for developing risk indices was applied to data collected from Mid-Atlantic streams of the U.S. during 1...

  4. Determinants of Food Safety Risks: A Multi-disciplinary Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knight, Andrew; Warland, Rex

    2005-01-01

    This research employs a multi-disciplinary approach by developing a model that draws upon psychometric, cultural, and reflexive modernization perspectives of risk perception. Using data from a 1999 national telephone survey, we tested our model on three food risks ? pesticides, Salmonella, and fat. Results showed that perceptions of risks do vary…

  5. SMALL POPULATIONS REQUIRE SPECIFIC MODELING APPROACHES FOR ASSESSING RISK

    EPA Science Inventory

    All populations face non-zero risks of extinction. However, the risks for small populations, and therefore the modeling approaches necessary to predict them, are different from those of large populations. These differences are currently hindering assessment of risk to small pop...

  6. Assessing health risks of synthetic vitreous fibers: an integrative approach.

    PubMed

    McClellan, R O

    1994-12-01

    This paper reviews a tiered approach to acquiring information from multiple experimental systems to understand and assess the potential human health risks of exposure to airborne synthetic fibers. The approach is grounded in the now widely accepted research-risk assessment-risk management paradigm. It involves the acquisition of information that will provide mechanistic linkages within the exposure-dose-response paradigm. It advocates the use of the inhalation route of exposure for developing relevant information for assessing human health risks and calls attention to serious problems encountered using nonphysiologic routes of administration to assess human health risks. PMID:7724844

  7. Use of risk quotient and probabilistic approaches to assess risks of pesticides to birds

    EPA Science Inventory

    When conducting ecological risk assessments for pesticides, the United States Environmental Protection Agency typically relies upon the risk quotient (RQ). This approach is intended to be conservative in nature, making assumptions related to exposure and effects that are intended...

  8. Risk analysis approach. [of carbon fiber release

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huston, R. J.

    1979-01-01

    The assessment of the carbon fiber hazard is outlined. Program objectives, requirements of the risk analysis, and elements associated with the physical phenomena of the accidental release are described.

  9. Modelling public risk evaluation of natural hazards: a conceptual approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plattner, Th.

    2005-04-01

    In recent years, the dealing with natural hazards in Switzerland has shifted away from being hazard-oriented towards a risk-based approach. Decreasing societal acceptance of risk, accompanied by increasing marginal costs of protective measures and decreasing financial resources cause an optimization problem. Therefore, the new focus lies on the mitigation of the hazard's risk in accordance with economical, ecological and social considerations. This modern proceeding requires an approach in which not only technological, engineering or scientific aspects of the definition of the hazard or the computation of the risk are considered, but also the public concerns about the acceptance of these risks. These aspects of a modern risk approach enable a comprehensive assessment of the (risk) situation and, thus, sound risk management decisions. In Switzerland, however, the competent authorities suffer from a lack of decision criteria, as they don't know what risk level the public is willing to accept. Consequently, there exists a need for the authorities to know what the society thinks about risks. A formalized model that allows at least a crude simulation of the public risk evaluation could therefore be a useful tool to support effective and efficient risk mitigation measures. This paper presents a conceptual approach of such an evaluation model using perception affecting factors PAF, evaluation criteria EC and several factors without any immediate relation to the risk itself, but to the evaluating person. Finally, the decision about the acceptance Acc of a certain risk i is made by a comparison of the perceived risk Ri,perc with the acceptable risk Ri,acc.

  10. Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

    PubMed

    Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

    2016-02-01

    Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth. PMID:26215051

  11. Using a Value-Added Approach to Assess the Sociology Major

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pedersen, Daphne E.; White, Frank

    2011-01-01

    Universities across the nation have been called upon to provide evidence of student learning through direct means of assessment. Value-added assessment, which aims to document the development of student learning from the beginning of the university experience to the end, has been called "accountability's new frontier" by the American Association…

  12. The Use of National Data Sets to Baseline Science Education Reform: Exploring Value-Added Approaches

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Homer, Matt; Ryder, Jim; Donnelly, Jim

    2011-01-01

    This paper uses data from the National Pupil Database to investigate the differences in "performance" across the range of science courses available following the 2006 Key Stage 4 (KS4) science reforms in England. This is a value-added exploration (from Key Stage 3 [KS3] to KS4) aimed not at the student or the school level, but rather at that of…

  13. Families at risk: comment on Dirkzwager, Bramsen, Adèr, and van der Ploeg (2005).

    PubMed

    Fairbank, John A; Fairbank, Doreen W

    2005-06-01

    New findings from a study by A. J. E. Dirkzwager, I. Bramsen, H. Adèr, and H. M. van der Ploeg (2005; see record 2005-06518-006) provide important empirical information on the adverse psychological and functional adjustment of families of former Dutch peacekeepers suffering from posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). In this comment the authors consider a few methodological limitations and issues for future study, including the need for intergenerational studies of the legacy of peacekeeping-related PTSD. Attention to considering the treatment needs of families of traumatized former peacekeepers is encouraged. PMID:15982099

  14. Prevention of cerebral palsy in motor risk infants by treatment ad modum Vojta. A controlled study.

    PubMed

    Brandt, S; Lønstrup, H V; Marner, T; Rump, K J; Selmar, P; Schack, L K; d'Avignon, M; Norén, L; Arman, T

    1980-05-01

    The proposal by V. Vojta in 1974 to prevent development of cerebral palsy in "motor risk" infants by special treatment has been investigated in 11 Danish and 10 Swedish babies and compared with 30 control infants with similar risk, who were not given Vojta treatment. We found a tendency for "uncomplicated" cerebral palsy cases to accumulate in the control group, although the difference was non-significant on 1 5% level. Further controlled studies must be completed before it is possible to accept the prophylactive treatment of cerebral palsy recommended by Vojta. PMID:7376854

  15. Reducing Adolescent Risk: Toward an Integrated Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Romer, David, Ed.

    This collection of papers focuses on common influences that result in a number of interrelated risk behaviors, summarizing presentations and discussions from a recent conference at which a group of specialists from different health traditions synthesized current knowledge on the subject. There are 39 papers in four parts. Part 1, "Adolescents as…

  16. Chemical Mixtures: Cancer Risk Assessment Approaches

    EPA Science Inventory

    Presentation will describe how EPA uses linear and nonlinear methods to derive cancer slope factors and reference doses,respectively, for single carcinogens, as described in EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment. Then, the presentation will show how these toxicity ...

  17. Improving Our Approach to Managing Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Adam

    2008-01-01

    Outdoor education--be it canoe tripping, adventure programs, field studies or anything else--is inherently risky. Outdoor educators deal with unpredictable settings and situations, where change is constant and outcomes are sometimes uncertain. In this naturalistic environment, their risk management procedures have the potential to break down and…

  18. Antagonistic molecular interactions of photosynthetic pigments with molecular disease targets: a new approach to treat AD and ALS.

    PubMed

    Krishnaraj, R Navanietha; Kumari, S S Sreeja; Mukhopadhyay, Sudit Sekhar

    2016-01-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) are progressive neurodegenerative diseases that affect the neurons in the brain and the spinal cord. Neuroinflamation and apoptosis are key players in the progressive damage of the neurons in AD and ALS. Currently, there is no drug to offer complete cure for both these diseases. Riluzole is the only available drug that can prolong the life time of the ALS patients for nearly 3 months. Molecules that offer good HIT to the molecular targets of ALS will help to treat AD and ALS patients. P53 kinase receptor (4AT3), EphA4 (3CKH) and histone deacetylase (3SFF) are the promising disease targets of AD and ALS. This paper discusses on a new approach to combat neurodegenerative diseases using photosynthetic pigments. The docking studies were performed with the Autodock Vina algorithm to predict the binding of the natural pigments such as β carotene, chlorophyll a, chlorophyll b, phycoerythrin and phycocyanin on these targets. The β carotene, phycoerythrin and phycocyanin had higher binding energies indicating the antagonistic activity to the disease targets. These pigments serve as a potential therapeutic molecule to treat neuroinflammation and apoptosis in the AD and ALS patients. PMID:26053508

  19. Enhancements for distributed certificate authority approaches for mobile wireless ad hoc networks.

    SciTech Connect

    Van Leeuwen, Brian P.; Michalski, John T.; Anderson, William Erik

    2003-12-01

    Mobile wireless ad hoc networks that are resistant to adversarial manipulation are necessary for distributed systems used in military and security applications. Critical to the successful operation of these networks, which operate in the presence of adversarial stressors, are robust and efficient information assurance methods. In this report we describe necessary enhancements for a distributed certificate authority (CA) used in secure wireless network architectures. Necessary cryptographic algorithms used in distributed CAs are described and implementation enhancements of these algorithms in mobile wireless ad hoc networks are developed. The enhancements support a network's ability to detect compromised nodes and facilitate distributed CA services. We provide insights to the impacts the enhancements will have on network performance with timing diagrams and preliminary network simulation studies.

  20. An artificial immune system approach with secondary response for misbehavior detection in mobile ad hoc networks.

    PubMed

    Sarafijanović, Slavisa; Le Boudec, Jean-Yves

    2005-09-01

    In mobile ad hoc networks, nodes act both as terminals and information relays, and they participate in a common routing protocol, such as dynamic source routing (DSR). The network is vulnerable to routing misbehavior, due to faulty or malicious nodes. Misbehavior detection systems aim at removing this vulnerability. In this paper, we investigate the use of an artificial immune system (AIS) to detect node misbehavior in a mobile ad hoc network using DSR. The system is inspired by the natural immune system (IS) of vertebrates. Our goal is to build a system that, like its natural counterpart, automatically learns, and detects new misbehavior. We describe our solution for the classification task of the AIS; it employs negative selection and clonal selection, the algorithms for learning and adaptation used by the natural IS. We define how we map the natural IS concepts such as self, antigen, and antibody to a mobile ad hoc network and give the resulting algorithm for classifying nodes as misbehaving. We implemented the system in the network simulator Glomosim; we present detection results and discuss how the system parameters affect the performance of primary and secondary response. Further steps will extend the design by using an analogy to the innate system, danger signal, and memory cells. PMID:16252818

  1. Windscreen wiper fluid without added screenwash in motor vehicles: a newly identified risk factor for Legionnaires' disease.

    PubMed

    Wallensten, Anders; Oliver, Isabel; Ricketts, Katherine; Kafatos, George; Stuart, James M; Joseph, Carol

    2010-09-01

    A source of infection is rarely identified for sporadic cases of Legionnaires' disease. We found that professional drivers are five times more commonly represented among community acquired sporadic cases in England and Wales than expected. We therefore investigated possible risk exposures in relation to driving or spending time in a motor vehicle. A case control study including all surviving community acquired sporadic cases in England and Wales with onset between 12 July 2008 and 9 March 2009 was carried out. Cases were contacted by phone and controls were consecutively recruited by sequential digital dialling matched by area code, sex and age group. Those who consented were sent a questionnaire asking questions on driving habits, potential sources in vehicles and known risk factors. The results were analysed using logistic regression. 75 cases and 67 controls were included in the study. Multivariable analysis identified two exposures linked to vehicle use associated with an increased risk of Legionnaires' disease: Driving through industrial areas (OR 7.2, 95%CI 1.5-33.7) and driving or being a passenger in a vehicle with windscreen wiper fluid not containing added screenwash (OR 47.2, 95%CI 3.7-603.6). Not adding screenwash to windscreen wiper fluid is a previously unidentified risk factor and appears to be strongly associated with community acquired sporadic cases of Legionnaires' disease. We estimated that around 20% of community acquired sporadic cases could be attributed to this exposure. A simple recommendation to use screenwash may mitigate transmission of Legionella bacteria to drivers and passengers. PMID:20532623

  2. The Added Risk of Opioid Problem Use among Treatment-Seeking Youth with Marijuana and/or Alcohol Problem Use

    PubMed Central

    Subramaniam, Geetha A; Ives, Melissa L.; Stitzer, Maxine L.; Dennis, Michael L.

    2009-01-01

    Objectives To determine the added risk of opioid problem use (OPU) in youth with marijuana/alcohol problem use (MAPU). Method 475 youth (ages 14–21 years) with OPU+MAPU were compared to a weighted sample of 475 youth with MAPU only (i.e., no OPU) before and after propensity score matching on gender, age, race, level of care, and weekly use of marijuana/alcohol. Youth were recruited from 88 drug treatment sites participating in eight Center for Substance Abuse Treatment funded grants. At treatment intake, participants were administered the Global Appraisal of Individual Need to elicit information on demographic, social, substance, mental health, HIV, physical and legal characteristics. Odds ratios with confidence intervals were calculated. Results The added risk of OPU among MAPU youth was associated with greater comorbidity: higher rates of psychiatric symptoms and trauma/victimization; greater needle-use and sex-related HIV-risk behaviors and greater physical distress. The OPU+MAPU group was less likely to be African American or other race and more likely to be age 15–17 years, Caucasian; report weekly drug use at home and among peers; engage in illegal behaviors and be confined longer; have greater substance abuse severity and poly drug use; and use mental health and substance abuse treatment services. Conclusions These findings expand on the existing literature and highlight the substantial incremental risk of OPU on multiple comorbid areas, among treatment-seeking youth. Further evaluation is needed to assess their outcomes following standard drug treatment and to evaluate specialized interventions for this subgroup of severely impaired youth. PMID:20403020

  3. Risk Financing for Schools: The Capital Markets Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rudolph, Richard G.

    1988-01-01

    The capital markets approach is an alternative means of risk financing whereby a school system establishes and controls its own insurance company and makes systematic contributions to pay for expected and anticipated losses and their associated costs. (MLF)

  4. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  5. A random matrix approach to credit risk.

    PubMed

    Münnix, Michael C; Schäfer, Rudi; Guhr, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    We estimate generic statistical properties of a structural credit risk model by considering an ensemble of correlation matrices. This ensemble is set up by Random Matrix Theory. We demonstrate analytically that the presence of correlations severely limits the effect of diversification in a credit portfolio if the correlations are not identically zero. The existence of correlations alters the tails of the loss distribution considerably, even if their average is zero. Under the assumption of randomly fluctuating correlations, a lower bound for the estimation of the loss distribution is provided. PMID:24853864

  6. A Random Matrix Approach to Credit Risk

    PubMed Central

    Guhr, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    We estimate generic statistical properties of a structural credit risk model by considering an ensemble of correlation matrices. This ensemble is set up by Random Matrix Theory. We demonstrate analytically that the presence of correlations severely limits the effect of diversification in a credit portfolio if the correlations are not identically zero. The existence of correlations alters the tails of the loss distribution considerably, even if their average is zero. Under the assumption of randomly fluctuating correlations, a lower bound for the estimation of the loss distribution is provided. PMID:24853864

  7. Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

  8. Hormonal Contraception and Thrombotic Risk: A Multidisciplinary Approach

    PubMed Central

    Chung, Richard J.; Michelson, Alan D.; Neufeld, Ellis J.; Gordon, Catherine M.; Laufer, Marc R.; Emans, S. Jean

    2011-01-01

    Heightened publicity about hormonal contraception and thrombosis risk and the publication of new guidelines by the World Health Organization in 2009 and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in 2010 addressing this complex issue have led to multidisciplinary discussions on the special issues of adolescents cared for at our pediatric hospital. In this review of the literature and new guidelines, we have outlined our approach to the complex patients referred to our center. The relative risk of thrombosis on combined oral contraception is three- to fivefold, whereas the absolute risk for a healthy adolescent on this therapy is only 0.05% per year. This thrombotic risk is affected by estrogen dose, type of progestin, mechanism of delivery, and length of therapy. Oral progestin-only contraceptives and transdermal estradiol used for hormone replacement carry minimal or no thrombotic risk. Transdermal, vaginal, or intrauterine contraceptives and injectable progestins need further study. A personal history of thrombosis, persistent or inherited thrombophilia, and numerous lifestyle choices also influence thrombotic risk. In this summary of one hospital's approach to hormone therapies and thrombosis risk, we review relative-risk data and discuss the application of absolute risk to individual patient counseling. We outline our approach to challenging patients with a history of thrombosis, known thrombophilia, current anticoagulation, or family history of thrombosis or thrombophilia. Our multidisciplinary group has found that knowledge of the guidelines and individualized management plans have been particularly useful for informing discussions about hormonal and nonhormonal options across varied indications. PMID:21199853

  9. Enhancing Students' Approaches to Learning: The Added Value of Gradually Implementing Case-Based Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baeten, Marlies; Dochy, Filip; Struyven, Katrien

    2013-01-01

    Previous research has shown the difficulty of enhancing students' approaches to learning, in particular the deep approach, through student-centred teaching methods such as problem- and case-based learning. This study investigates whether mixed instructional methods combining case-based learning and lectures have the power to enhance students'…

  10. Using Surveillance of Mental Health to Increase Understanding of Youth Involvement in High-Risk Behaviors: A Value-Added Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dowdy, Erin; Furlong, Michael J.; Sharkey, Jill D.

    2013-01-01

    This study examined the potential utility of adding items that assessed youths' emotional and behavioral disorders to a commonly used surveillance survey. The goal was to evaluate whether the added items could enhance understanding of youths' involvement in high-risk behaviors. A sample of 3,331 adolescents in Grades 8, 10, and 12 from four…

  11. Hereditary cancer risk assessment: essential tools for a better approach

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Hereditary cancer risk assessment (HCRA) is a multidisciplinary process of estimating probabilities of germline mutations in cancer susceptibility genes and assessing empiric risks of cancer, based on personal and family history. It includes genetic counseling, testing and management of at-risk individuals so that they can make well-informed choices about cancer surveillance, surgical treatment and chemopreventive measures, including biomolecular cancer therapies. Providing patients and family members with an appropriate HCRA will contribute to a better process of making decisions about their personal and family risks of cancer. Following individuals at high risk through screening protocols, reassuring those at low risk, and referring those at increased risk of hereditary cancer to a cancer genetics center may be the best suitable approach of HCRA. PMID:24165150

  12. Equity in health care financing in Palestine: the value-added of the disaggregate approach.

    PubMed

    Abu-Zaineh, Mohammad; Mataria, Awad; Luchini, Stéphane; Moatti, Jean-Paul

    2008-06-01

    This paper analyzes the redistributive effect and progressivity associated with the current health care financing schemes in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, using data from the first Palestinian Household Health Expenditure Survey conducted in 2004. The paper goes beyond the commonly used "aggregate summary index approach" to apply a more detailed "disaggregate approach". Such an approach is borrowed from the general economic literature on taxation, and examines redistributive and vertical effects over specific parts of the income distribution, using the dominance criterion. In addition, the paper employs a bootstrap method to test for the statistical significance of the inequality measures. While both the aggregate and disaggregate approaches confirm the pro-rich and regressive character of out-of-pocket payments, the aggregate approach does not ascertain the potential progressive feature of any of the available insurance schemes. The disaggregate approach, however, significantly reveals a progressive aspect, for over half of the population, of the government health insurance scheme, and demonstrates that the regressivity of the out-of-pocket payments is most pronounced among the worst-off classes of the population. Recommendations are advanced to improve the performance of the government insurance schemes to enhance its capacity in limiting inequalities in health care financing in the Occupied Palestinian Territory. PMID:18314242

  13. A phased approach to induced seismicity risk management

    SciTech Connect

    White, Joshua A.; Foxall, William

    2014-01-01

    This work describes strategies for assessing and managing induced seismicity risk during each phase of a carbon storage project. We consider both nuisance and damage potential from induced earthquakes, as well as the indirect risk of enhancing fault leakage pathways. A phased approach to seismicity management is proposed, in which operations are continuously adapted based on available information and an on-going estimate of risk. At each project stage, specific recommendations are made for (a) monitoring and characterization, (b) modeling and analysis, and (c) site operations. The resulting methodology can help lower seismic risk while ensuring site operations remain practical and cost-effective.

  14. A phased approach to induced seismicity risk management

    DOE PAGESBeta

    White, Joshua A.; Foxall, William

    2014-01-01

    This work describes strategies for assessing and managing induced seismicity risk during each phase of a carbon storage project. We consider both nuisance and damage potential from induced earthquakes, as well as the indirect risk of enhancing fault leakage pathways. A phased approach to seismicity management is proposed, in which operations are continuously adapted based on available information and an on-going estimate of risk. At each project stage, specific recommendations are made for (a) monitoring and characterization, (b) modeling and analysis, and (c) site operations. The resulting methodology can help lower seismic risk while ensuring site operations remain practical andmore » cost-effective.« less

  15. A reclamation approach for mined prime farmland by adding organic wastes and lime to the subsoil

    SciTech Connect

    Zhai, Qiang; Barnhisel, R.I.

    1996-12-31

    Surface mined prime farmland may be reclaimed by adding organic wastes and lime to subsoil thus improving conditions in root zone. In this study, sewage sludge, poultry manure, horse bedding, and lime were applied to subsoil (15-30 cm) during reclamation. Soil properties and plant growth were measured over two years. All organic amendments tended to lower the subsoil bulk density and increase organic matter and total nitrogen. Liming raised exchangeable calcium, slightly increased pH, but decreased exchangeable magnesium and potassium. Corn ear-leaf and forage tissue nitrogen, yields, and nitrogen removal increased in treatments amended with sewage sludge and poultry manure, but not horse bedding. Subsoil application of sewage sludge or poultry manure seems like a promising method in the reclamation of surface mined prime farmland based on the improvements observed in the root zone environment.

  16. A Bayesian Networks approach to Operational Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aquaro, V.; Bardoscia, M.; Bellotti, R.; Consiglio, A.; De Carlo, F.; Ferri, G.

    2010-04-01

    A system for Operational Risk management based on the computational paradigm of Bayesian Networks is presented. The algorithm allows the construction of a Bayesian Network targeted for each bank and takes into account in a simple and realistic way the correlations among different processes of the bank. The internal losses are averaged over a variable time horizon, so that the correlations at different times are removed, while the correlations at the same time are kept: the averaged losses are thus suitable to perform the learning of the network topology and parameters; since the main aim is to understand the role of the correlations among the losses, the assessments of domain experts are not used. The algorithm has been validated on synthetic time series. It should be stressed that the proposed algorithm has been thought for the practical implementation in a mid or small sized bank, since it has a small impact on the organizational structure of a bank and requires an investment in human resources which is limited to the computational area.

  17. Prevention of accidental exposure in radiotherapy: the risk matrix approach.

    PubMed

    Vilaragut, J J; Duménigo, C; Delgado, J M; Morales, J; McDonnell, J D; Ferro, R; Ortiz López, P; Ramírez, M L; Pérez Mulas, A; Papadopulos, S; Gonçalves, M; López Morones, R; Sánchez Cayuela, C; Cascajo Castresana, A; Somoano, F; Álvarez, C; Guillén, A; Rodríguez, M; Pereira, P P; Nader, A

    2013-02-01

    Knowledge and lessons from past accidental exposures in radiotherapy are very helpful in finding safety provisions to prevent recurrence. Disseminating lessons is necessary but not sufficient. There may be additional latent risks for other accidental exposures, which have not been reported or have not occurred, but are possible and may occur in the future if not identified, analyzed, and prevented by safety provisions. Proactive methods are available for anticipating and quantifying risk from potential event sequences. In this work, proactive methods, successfully used in industry, have been adapted and used in radiotherapy. Risk matrix is a tool that can be used in individual hospitals to classify event sequences in levels of risk. As with any anticipative method, the risk matrix involves a systematic search for potential risks; that is, any situation that can cause an accidental exposure. The method contributes new insights: The application of the risk matrix approach has identified that another group of less catastrophic but still severe single-patient events may have a higher probability, resulting in higher risk. The use of the risk matrix approach for safety assessment in individual hospitals would provide an opportunity for self-evaluation and managing the safety measures that are most suitable to the hospital's own conditions. PMID:23274816

  18. Approaches for Assessing Risks to Sensitive Populations: Lessons Learned from Evaluating Risks in the Pediatric Population

    PubMed Central

    Hines, Ronald N.; Sargent, Dana; Autrup, Herman; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Brent, Robert L.; Doerrer, Nancy G.; Cohen Hubal, Elaine A.; Juberg, Daland R.; Laurent, Christian; Luebke, Robert; Olejniczak, Klaus; Portier, Christopher J.; Slikker, William

    2010-01-01

    Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a “tool chest” of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of the pediatric population. The Health and Environmental Sciences Institute Subcommittee on Risk Assessment of Sensitive Populations evaluated key references in the area of pediatric risk to identify a spectrum of methodological approaches. These approaches are considered in this article for their potential to be extrapolated for the identification and assessment of other sensitive populations. Recommendations as to future research needs and/or alternate methodological considerations are also made. PMID:19770482

  19. Territory management an appropriate approach for taking into account dynamic risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandez, M.; Ruegg, J.

    2012-04-01

    The territorial approach in risk analysis is well established in scientific communications in recent years, especially in the francophone literature. It is an especially appropriate approach for exploring a large number of criteria and factors influencing, on the territory, the composition of the vulnerabilities and risks. In these sense, this approach is appropriate to identify not only risks due to natural hazards but also social and environmental risks. Our case study explores the catastrophic landslide, a collapse of 6 millions cubic meters of rock in Los Chorros, in the municipality of San Cristobal Verapaz-Guatemala, in January 2009. We demonstrate that the same natural hazard has different consequences within this territory and may also increase or even create new vulnerabilities and risks for the population. The analysis shows that the same event can endanger various aspects of the territory: resources, functions (agriculture, or houses uses for example) and allocations and highlights the different types of vulnerabilities that land users (i.e., farmers, merchants transport drivers) face. To resolve a post-disaster situation, the actors choose one vulnerability among a set of vulnerabilities (in a multi-vulnerability context) and with this choice they define their own acceptable risk limits. To give an example, the transport driver choose to reduce the economic vulnerability when going to the local market and crossing the landslide (physical vulnerability). In the context of a developing country with weak development and limited resources, land users that become the Risk managers after the disaster are compelled to prioritize between different actions for reducing risks This study provides a novel approach to risk management by adding a political science and geography dimension through the territory approach for improving our understanding of multi-hazard and multi-risk management. Based on findings from this case study, this work asserts that risk is not

  20. To Learn More about Learning: The Value-Added Role of Qualitative Approaches to Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Newhart, Daniel W.

    2015-01-01

    As we face increasing accountability in higher education, how we measure student learning should exceed the calls for an account of learning that places students at the center. Qualitative approaches to assessment and theoretical underpinnings gleaned from the qualitative research tradition may provide a way that we can support a more holistic…

  1. A Preliminary Approach to Adding Indicators of Ecosystem Service Benefits to a Wetlands Functional Assessment Tool

    EPA Science Inventory

    State-level managers and restoration advocates have expressed a desire for approaches that address wetlands services and benefits for two purposes: to demonstrate the benefits of money budgeted for restoration, and to compare proposals when awarding restoration funds for specific...

  2. Concurrent Transmission Based on Channel Quality in Ad Hoc Networks: A Game Theoretic Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Chen; Gao, Xinbo; Li, Xiaoji; Pei, Qingqi

    In this paper, a decentralized concurrent transmission strategy in shared channel in Ad Hoc networks is proposed based on game theory. Firstly, a static concurrent transmissions game is used to determine the candidates for transmitting by channel quality threshold and to maximize the overall throughput with consideration of channel quality variation. To achieve NES (Nash Equilibrium Solution), the selfish behaviors of node to attempt to improve the channel gain unilaterally are evaluated. Therefore, this game allows each node to be distributed and to decide whether to transmit concurrently with others or not depending on NES. Secondly, as there are always some nodes with lower channel gain than NES, which are defined as hunger nodes in this paper, a hunger suppression scheme is proposed by adjusting the price function with interferences reservation and forward relay, to fairly give hunger nodes transmission opportunities. Finally, inspired by stock trading, a dynamic concurrent transmission threshold determination scheme is implemented to make the static game practical. Numerical results show that the proposed scheme is feasible to increase concurrent transmission opportunities for active nodes, and at the same time, the number of hunger nodes is greatly reduced with the least increase of threshold by interferences reservation. Also, the good performance on network goodput of the proposed model can be seen from the results.

  3. Bacillus aryabhattai BA03: a novel approach to the production of natural value-added compounds.

    PubMed

    Paz, Alicia; Carballo, Julia; Pérez, María José; Domínguez, José Manuel

    2016-10-01

    A strain designated as BA03, with the ability to transform ferulic acid into vanillin and 4-vinylguaiacol, was isolated from contaminated cryovials. The production of natural value-added compounds was dependent on the media employed. The morphological and physiological characteristics of this strain were compared with those of the typical vanillin-producer strain Amycolatopsis sp. ATCC 39116. According to a partial 16S rRNA sequence, we determined that BA03 belonged to Bacillus aryabhattai. In addition, analysis of the results showed that this strain exhibited interesting enzymatic activity, including cellulases, laccases, lipases and pectinases. In light of this, we propose new functions for this multitasking microorganism. We suggest that it may be used for converting lignocellulosic wastes into byproducts with industrial uses, and also for treating disposal residues such as dyes in the textile industry. Hence, the possibility for novel research with B. aryabhattai opens up in the fields of biodegradation and/or revalorization of wastes. PMID:27562593

  4. Risk based tiered approach (RBTASM) for pollution prevention.

    PubMed

    Elves, R G; Sweeney, L M; Tomljanovic, C

    1997-11-01

    Effective management of human health and ecological hazards in the manufacturing and maintenance environment can be achieved by focusing on the risks associated with these operations. The NDCEE Industrial Health Risk Assessment (IHRA) Program is developing a comprehensive approach to risk analysis applied to existing processes and used to evaluate alternatives. The IHRA Risk-Based Tiered Approach (RBTASM) builds on the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) Risk-Based Corrective Action (RBCA) effort to remediate underground storage tanks. Using readily available information, a semi-quantitative ranking of alternatives based on environmental, safety, and occupational health criteria was produced. A Rapid Screening Assessment of alternative corrosion protection products was performed on behalf of the Joint Group on Acquisition Pollution Prevention (JG-APP). Using the RBTASM in pollution prevention alternative selection required higher tiered analysis and more detailed assessment of human health risks under site-specific conditions. This example illustrates the RBTASM for a organic finishing line using three different products (one conventional spray and two alternative powder coats). The human health risk information developed using the RBTASM is considered along with product performance, regulatory, and cost information by risk managers downselecting alternatives for implementation or further analysis. PMID:9433667

  5. Adding Chemoprophylaxis to Sequential Compression May Not Reduce the Risk of Venous Thromboembolism in Bariatric Surgery Patients

    PubMed Central

    Gagner, Michel; Selzer, Faith; Belle, Steve H.; Bessler, Marc; Courcoulas, Anita P.; Dakin, Gregory; Davis, Dan; Inabnet, William B.; Mitchell, James E.; Pomp, Alfons; Strain, Gladys; Pories, Walter J.; Wolfe, Bruce

    2012-01-01

    Background Anticoagulation, the use of sequential compression devices on lower extremities peri-operatively, and early ambulation are thought to reduce venous thromboembolism (VTE) postoperatively and are recommended to reduce VTE risk. However, the evidence upon which this recommendation is based is not particularly strong. We demonstrate that even a large, multi-center cohort with carefully collected prospective data is inadequate to provide sufficient evidence to support, or refute, this recommendation. Methods The Longitudinal Assessment of Bariatric Surgery (LABS) participants from 10 centers in the United States who underwent their first bariatric surgery between March, 2005 and December, 2007 comprise the study group. We examined the ability to address the question of whether anti-coagulation therapy, in addition to sequential compression, reduces the 30 day incidence of VTE or death sufficiently to recommend the use of prophylactic anticoagulation, a therapy that is not without risk. Results Of 4416 patients, 396 (9.0%) received sequential compression alone, while the others also received anticoagulation therapy. The incidence of VTE within 30 days of surgery was small (0.25% among those receiving sequential compression alone, 0.47% when anticoagulation therapy was added), and the 30 days incidence of death was also small (0.25% vs. 0.34%, p = 0.76, for sequential compression alone vs. sequential compression plus anticoagulation therapy). Estimates of the number of cases required to address the question of whether there is a difference in outcome related to VTE chemoprophylaxis, or whether the outcome rates are equivalent, range from 13,680 to at least 35,760 patients, depending upon whether superiority or equivalence is being analyzed. Conclusion Sufficient evidence from a clinical trial study to determine whether prophylactic anticoagulation added to compression devices further prevents VTEs is not available and such a trial is likely to be impractical

  6. Who takes risks in high-risk sports? A typological personality approach.

    PubMed

    Castanier, Carole; Le Scanff, Christine; Woodman, Tim

    2010-12-01

    We investigated the risk-taking behaviors of 302 men involved in high-risk sports (downhill skiing mountaineering rock climbing, paragliding, or skydiving). The sportsmen were classified using a typological approach to personality based on eight personality types, which were constructed from combinations of neuroticism, extraversion, and conscientiousness. Results showed that personality types with a configuration of low conscientiousness combined with high extraversion and/or high neuroticism (impulsive, hedonistic, insecure) were greater risk-takers. Conversely, personality types with a configuration of high conscientiousness combined with low extraversion and/or high extraversion (skeptic, brooder, entrepreneur) were lower risk-takers. Results are discussed in the context of typology and other approaches to understanding who takes risks in high-risk domains. PMID:21268472

  7. Approaches for Assessing Risks to Sensitive Populations: Lessons Learned from Evaluating Risks in the Pediatric Population

    EPA Science Inventory

    Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a "tool chest" of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of t...

  8. Approaches for assessing risks to sensitive populations: Lessons learned from evaluating risks in the pediatric populations*

    EPA Science Inventory

    Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a 'tool chest' of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of...

  9. Who Takes Risks in High-Risk Sports? A Typological Personality Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Castanier, Carole; Le Scanff, Christine; Woodman, Tim

    2010-01-01

    We investigated the risk-taking behaviors of 302 men involved in high-risk sports (downhill skiing, mountaineering, rock climbing, paragliding, or skydiving). The sportsmen were classified using a typological approach to personality based on eight personality types, which were constructed from combinations of neuroticism, extraversion, and…

  10. Science-Driven Approach to Disaster Risk and Crisis Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.

    2014-12-01

    Disasters due to natural extreme events continue to grow in number and intensity. Disaster risk and crisis management requires long-term planning, and to undertake that planning, a science-driven approach is needed to understand and assess disaster risks and to help in impact assessment and in recovery processes after a disaster. Science is used in assessments and rapid modeling of the disaster impact, in forecasting triggered hazards and risk (e.g., a tsunami or a landslide after a large earthquake), in contacts with and medical treatment of the affected population, and in some other actions. At the stage of response to disaster, science helps to analyze routinely the disaster happened (e.g., the physical processes led to this extreme event; hidden vulnerabilities; etc.) At the stage of recovery, natural scientists improve the existing regional hazard assessments; engineers try to use new science to produce new materials and technologies to make safer houses and infrastructure. At the stage of disaster risk mitigation new scientific methods and approaches are being developed to study natural extreme events; vulnerability of society is periodically investigated, and the measures for increasing the resilience of society to extremes are developed; existing disaster management regulations are improved. At the stage of preparedness, integrated research on disaster risks should be developed to understand the roots of potential disasters. Enhanced forecasting and early warning systems are to be developed reducing predictive uncertainties, and comprehensive disaster risk assessment is to be undertaken at local, regional, national and global levels. Science education should be improved by introducing trans-disciplinary approach to disaster risks. Science can help society by improving awareness about extreme events, enhancing risk communication with policy makers, media and society, and assisting disaster risk management authorities in organization of local and regional

  11. A new approach to criteria for health risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Goh, Yang Miang

    2012-01-15

    Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is a developing component of the overall impact assessment process and as such needs access to procedures that can enable more consistent approaches to the stepwise process that is now generally accepted in both EIA and HIA. The guidelines developed during this project provide a structured process, based on risk assessment procedures which use consequences and likelihood, as a way of ranking risks to adverse health outcomes from activities subjected to HIA or HIA as part of EIA. The aim is to assess the potential for both acute and chronic health outcomes. The consequences component also identifies a series of consequences for the health care system, depicted as expressions of financial expenditure and the capacity of the health system. These more specific health risk assessment characteristics should provide for a broader consideration of health consequences and a more consistent estimation of the adverse health risks of a proposed development at both the scoping and risk assessment stages of the HIA process. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A more objective approach to health risk assessment is provided. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences for chronic and acute impacts. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences on the health care system. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for event frequency that could impact on health. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach presented is currently being trialled in Australia.

  12. A Monte Carlo simulation approach for flood risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agili, Hachem; Chokmani, Karem; Oubennaceur, Khalid; Poulin, Jimmy; Marceau, Pascal

    2016-04-01

    Floods are the most frequent natural disaster and the most damaging in Canada. The issue of assessing and managing the risk related to this disaster has become increasingly crucial for both local and national authorities. Brigham, a municipality located in southern Quebec Province, is one of the heavily affected regions by this disaster because of frequent overflows of the Yamaska River reaching two to three times per year. Since Irene Hurricane which hit the region in 2011 causing considerable socio-economic damage, the implementation of mitigation measures has become a major priority for this municipality. To do this, a preliminary study to evaluate the risk to which this region is exposed is essential. Conventionally, approaches only based on the characterization of the hazard (e.g. floodplains extensive, flood depth) are generally adopted to study the risk of flooding. In order to improve the knowledge of this risk, a Monte Carlo simulation approach combining information on the hazard with vulnerability-related aspects of buildings has been developed. This approach integrates three main components namely hydrological modeling through flow-probability functions, hydraulic modeling using flow-submersion height functions and the study of buildings damage based on damage functions adapted to the Quebec habitat. The application of this approach allows estimating the annual average cost of damage caused by floods on buildings. The obtained results will be useful for local authorities to support their decisions on risk management and prevention against this disaster.

  13. Approach for evaluating inundation risks in urban drainage systems.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Zhihua; Chen, Zhihe; Chen, Xiaohong; He, Peiying

    2016-05-15

    Urban inundation is a serious challenge that increasingly confronts the residents of many cities, as well as policymakers. Hence, inundation evaluation is becoming increasingly important around the world. This comprehensive assessment involves numerous indices in urban catchments, but the high-dimensional and non-linear relationship between the indices and the risk presents an enormous challenge for accurate evaluation. Therefore, an approach is hereby proposed to qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate inundation risks in urban drainage systems based on a storm water management model, the projection pursuit method, the ordinary kriging method and the K-means clustering method. This approach is tested using a residential district in Guangzhou, China. Seven evaluation indices were selected and twenty rainfall-runoff events were used to calibrate and validate the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model. The inundation risks in the study area drainage system were evaluated under different rainfall scenarios. The following conclusions are reached. (1) The proposed approach, without subjective factors, can identify the main driving factors, i.e., inundation duration, largest water flow and total flood amount in this study area. (2) The inundation risk of each manhole can be qualitatively analyzed and quantitatively calculated. There are 1, 8, 11, 14, 21, and 21 manholes at risk under the return periods of 1-year, 5-years, 10-years, 20-years, 50-years and 100-years, respectively. (3) The areas of levels III, IV and V increase with increasing rainfall return period based on analyzing the inundation risks for a variety of characteristics. (4) The relationships between rainfall intensity and inundation-affected areas are revealed by a logarithmic model. This study proposes a novel and successful approach to assessing risk in urban drainage systems and provides guidance for improving urban drainage systems and inundation preparedness. PMID:26897578

  14. An improved recombineering approach by adding RecA to lambda Red recombination.

    PubMed

    Wang, Junping; Sarov, Mihail; Rientjes, Jeanette; Fu, Jun; Hollak, Heike; Kranz, Harald; Xie, Wei; Stewart, A Francis; Zhang, Youming

    2006-01-01

    Recombineering is the use of homologous recombination in Escherichia coli for DNA engineering. Of several approaches, use of the lambda phage Red operon is emerging as the most reliable and flexible. The Red operon includes three components: Redalpha, a 5' to 3' exonuclease, Redbeta, an annealing protein, and Redgamma, an inhibitor of the major E. coli exonuclease and recombination complex, RecBCD. Most E. coli cloning hosts are recA deficient to eliminate recombination and therefore enhance the stability of cloned DNAs. However, loss of RecA also impairs general cellular integrity. Here we report that transient RecA co-expression enhances the total number of successful recombinations in bacterial artificial chromosomes (BACs), mostly because the E. coli host is more able to survive the stresses of DNA transformation procedures. We combined this practical improvement with the advantages of a temperature-sensitive version of the low copy pSC101 plasmid to develop a protocol that is convenient and more efficient than any recombineering procedure, for use of either double- or single-stranded DNA, published to date. PMID:16382181

  15. A practical approach to risk-based inservice inspection in U.S. nuclear power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Gosselin, S.R.; Gamble, R.; Dimitrijevic, V.B.; O`Regan, P.J.; Chapman, J.R.

    1996-12-01

    To provide guidelines for practical implementation of risk-based ISI, EPRI sponsored work to develop evaluation procedures and criteria for defining risk-based inservice inspection programs for nuclear power plant piping. These procedures and criteria include efficient means to identify risk significant piping segments, inspection locations, and available inspection techniques. These procedures were applied in a pilot study to assess the feasibility of successfully implementing risk-based inservice inspection programs at nuclear plants. The results from the pilot study indicate that implementation of risk-based inservice inspection programs can reduce the cost and radiation exposure associated with inservice inspection, while maintaining a high level of safety. The list of references provides additional details of these procedures and plant-specific applications. Also, an EPRI technical report has been published to document these procedures. Software has been developed to support and fully document this procedure. Additional development is adding an expert system to the present data base system. The approach compares well to approaches used (or being considered) in other industries and can easily be adapted to these other industries and to address economic and personnel safety in addition to public safety measures.

  16. Holistic Approach to Risk Management Allows School Districts To Maximize Their Investments.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bambino, Robert; Carruthers, J. Brett; Markott, Frank

    2003-01-01

    Describes the basic components of risk management, elements of a school-specific risk management program, and the value-added services provided by insurance carriers and other educational support organizations. (PKP)

  17. Protection goals in environmental risk assessment: a practical approach.

    PubMed

    Garcia-Alonso, Monica; Raybould, Alan

    2014-12-01

    Policy protection goals are set up in most countries to minimise harm to the environment, humans and animals caused by human activities. Decisions on whether to approve new agricultural products, like pesticides or genetically modified (GM) crops, take into account these policy protection goals. To support decision-making, applications for approval of commercial uses of GM crops usually comprise an environmental risk assessment (ERA). These risk assessments are analytical tools, based on science, that follow a conceptual model that includes a problem formulation step where policy protection goals are considered. However, in most countries, risk assessors face major problems in that policy protection goals set in the legislation are stated in very broad terms and are too ambiguous to be directly applicable in ERAs. This means that risk assessors often have to interpret policy protection goals without clear guidance on what effects would be considered harmful. In this paper we propose a practical approach that may help risk assessors to translate policy protection goals into unambiguous (i.e., operational) protection goals and to establish relevant assessment endpoints and risk hypotheses that can be used in ERAs. Examples are provided to show how this approach can be applied to two areas of environmental concern relevant to the ERAs of GM crops. PMID:24154954

  18. A Holistic Approach for Risk Management During Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, an approach for the identification, assessment, mitigation and continuous management of risks during the process of designing a space mission is presented. This approach has been developed by observing the risk patterns that occur at the Project Design Center of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (TeamX) which develops conceptual, concurrent design of Space Missions. TeamX develops an end-to-end conceptual design of a Space Mission in a matter of one or two weeks. As the risk chair in TeamX, the author has had the opportunity to observe the risk patterns that occur during design over the course of many design sessions. This paper introduces an abstraction and generalization of those patterns. Risk is defined as anything that can go wrong, along with its approximate likelihood and consequence. The indicators, and causes, and effects of these risks are cross cutting across the multiple levels of people and processes involved in the design, and the actual design product itself.

  19. Exposure as Part of a Systems Approach for Assessing Risk

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is facing large challenges in managing environmental chemicals with increasingly complex requirements for assessing risk that push the limits of our current approaches. To address some of these challenges, the National Research Council (NR...

  20. Integrative Approaches to Evaluating Neurotoxicity Data for Risk Assessment.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment classically has been based on single adverse outcomes identified as the Lowest Observable Adverse Effect Level (LOAEL) or the highest dose level in a credible study producing a No Observable Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL). While this approach has been useful overal...

  1. A risk-informed approach to safety margins analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Curtis Smith; Diego Mandelli

    2013-07-01

    The Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Pathway is a systematic approach developed to characterize and quantify safety margins of nuclear power plant structures, systems and components. The model has been tested on the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Lab.

  2. Plenary lecture: innovative modeling approaches applicable to risk assessments

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Proper identification of safe and unsafe food at the processing plant is important for maximizing the public health benefit of food by ensuring both its consumption and safety. Risk assessment is a holistic approach to food safety that consists of four steps: 1) hazard identification; 2) exposure a...

  3. EPA ORD RISK MANAGEMENT APPROACH TO DRINKING WATER RESEARCH

    EPA Science Inventory

    The approach to managing the risks associated with many environmental concerns has changed over the last five years with more emphasis being placed on integrating sound science into the more complex mix of socio-economic considerations facing American society today. This paper g...

  4. Perception of risks from electromagnetic fields: A psychometric evaluation of a risk-communication approach

    SciTech Connect

    MacGregor, D.G.; Slovic, P. ); Morgan, M.G. )

    1994-10-01

    Potential health risks from exposure to power-frequency electromagnetic fields (EMF) have become an issue of significant public concern. This study evaluates a brochure designed to communicate EMF health risks from a scientific perspective. The study utilized a pretest-posttest design in which respondents judged various sources of EMF (and other) health and safety risks, both before reaching the brochure and after. Respondents assessed risks on dimensions similar to those utilized in previous studies of risk perception. In addition, detailed ratings were made that probed respondents' beliefs about the possible causal effects of EMF exposure. The findings suggest that naive beliefs about the potential of EMF exposure to cause harm were highly influenced by specific content elements of the brochure. The implications for using risk-communication approaches based on communicating scientific uncertainty are discussed. 19 refs., 1 fig., 11 tabs.

  5. Regulatory risk assessment approaches for synthetic mineral fibres.

    PubMed

    Harrison, Paul; Holmes, Philip; Bevan, Ruth; Kamps, Klaus; Levy, Leonard; Greim, Helmut

    2015-10-01

    Exposure to synthetic mineral fibres (SMF) may occur in a number of workplace scenarios. To protect worker health, a number of different organisations worldwide have assessed the health risk of these materials and established workplace exposure limits. This paper outlines the basic principles of risk assessment and the scientific methods used to derive valid (justifiable) occupational exposure limits (OELs) and goes on to show how, for SMF, and particularly for refractory ceramic fibre (otherwise known as aluminosilicate wool, RCF/ASW), the methods used and the associated outcomes differ widely. It is argued that the resulting differences in established OELs prevent consistent and appropriate risk management of SMF worldwide, and that development of a transparent and harmonised approach to fibre risk assessment and limit-setting is required. PMID:26253001

  6. Future trends in flood risk in Indonesia - A probabilistic approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muis, Sanne; Guneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Ward, Philip

    2014-05-01

    Indonesia is one of the 10 most populous countries in the world and is highly vulnerable to (river) flooding. Catastrophic floods occur on a regular basis; total estimated damages were US 0.8 bn in 2010 and US 3 bn in 2013. Large parts of Greater Jakarta, the capital city, are annually subject to flooding. Flood risks (i.e. the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability) are increasing due to rapid increases in exposure, such as strong population growth and ongoing economic development. The increase in risk may also be amplified by increasing flood hazards, such as increasing flood frequency and intensity due to climate change and land subsidence. The implementation of adaptation measures, such as the construction of dykes and strategic urban planning, may counteract these increasing trends. However, despite its importance for adaptation planning, a comprehensive assessment of current and future flood risk in Indonesia is lacking. This contribution addresses this issue and aims to provide insight into how socio-economic trends and climate change projections may shape future flood risks in Indonesia. Flood risk were calculated using an adapted version of the GLOFRIS global flood risk assessment model. Using this approach, we produced probabilistic maps of flood risks (i.e. annual expected damage) at a resolution of 30"x30" (ca. 1km x 1km at the equator). To represent flood exposure, we produced probabilistic projections of urban growth in a Monte-Carlo fashion based on probability density functions of projected population and GDP values for 2030. To represent flood hazard, inundation maps were computed using the hydrological-hydraulic component of GLOFRIS. These maps show flood inundation extent and depth for several return periods and were produced for several combinations of GCMs and future socioeconomic scenarios. Finally, the implementation of different adaptation strategies was incorporated into the model to explore to what extent adaptation may be able to

  7. A data-driven approach to quality risk management

    PubMed Central

    Alemayehu, Demissie; Alvir, Jose; Levenstein, Marcia; Nickerson, David

    2013-01-01

    Aim: An effective clinical trial strategy to ensure patient safety as well as trial quality and efficiency involves an integrated approach, including prospective identification of risk factors, mitigation of the risks through proper study design and execution, and assessment of quality metrics in real-time. Such an integrated quality management plan may also be enhanced by using data-driven techniques to identify risk factors that are most relevant in predicting quality issues associated with a trial. In this paper, we illustrate such an approach using data collected from actual clinical trials. Materials and Methods: Several statistical methods were employed, including the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and logistic regression, to identify the presence of association between risk factors and the occurrence of quality issues, applied to data on quality of clinical trials sponsored by Pfizer. Results: Only a subset of the risk factors had a significant association with quality issues, and included: Whether study used Placebo, whether an agent was a biologic, unusual packaging label, complex dosing, and over 25 planned procedures. Conclusion: Proper implementation of the strategy can help to optimize resource utilization without compromising trial integrity and patient safety. PMID:24312890

  8. Injury prevention and risk communication: a mental models approach.

    PubMed

    Austin, Laurel C; Fischhoff, Baruch

    2012-04-01

    Individuals' decisions and behaviour can play a critical role in determining both the probability and severity of injury. Behavioural decision research studies peoples' decision-making processes in terms comparable to scientific models of optimal choices, providing a basis for focusing interventions on the most critical opportunities to reduce risks. That research often seeks to identify the 'mental models' that underlie individuals' interpretations of their circumstances and the outcomes of possible actions. In the context of injury prevention, a mental models approach would ask why people fail to see risks, do not make use of available protective interventions or misjudge the effectiveness of protective measures. If these misunderstandings can be reduced through context-appropriate risk communications, then their improved mental models may help people to engage more effectively in behaviours that they judge to be in their own best interest. If that proves impossible, then people may need specific instructions, not trusting to intuition or even paternalistic protection against situations that they cannot sufficiently control. The method entails working with domain specialists to elicit and create an expert model of the risk situation, interviewing lay people to elicit their comparable mental models, and developing and evaluating communication interventions designed to close the gaps between lay people and experts. This paper reviews the theory and method behind this research stream and uses examples to discuss how the approach can be used to develop scientifically validated context-sensitive injury risk communications. PMID:22088928

  9. Multi-analytical Approaches Informing the Risk of Sepsis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gwadry-Sridhar, Femida; Lewden, Benoit; Mequanint, Selam; Bauer, Michael

    Sepsis is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity and is often associated with increased hospital resource utilization, prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital stay. The economic burden associated with sepsis is huge. With advances in medicine, there are now aggressive goal oriented treatments that can be used to help these patients. If we were able to predict which patients may be at risk for sepsis we could start treatment early and potentially reduce the risk of mortality and morbidity. Analytic methods currently used in clinical research to determine the risk of a patient developing sepsis may be further enhanced by using multi-modal analytic methods that together could be used to provide greater precision. Researchers commonly use univariate and multivariate regressions to develop predictive models. We hypothesized that such models could be enhanced by using multiple analytic methods that together could be used to provide greater insight. In this paper, we analyze data about patients with and without sepsis using a decision tree approach and a cluster analysis approach. A comparison with a regression approach shows strong similarity among variables identified, though not an exact match. We compare the variables identified by the different approaches and draw conclusions about the respective predictive capabilities,while considering their clinical significance.

  10. From Lipids to Inflammation: New Approaches to Reducing Atherosclerotic Risk.

    PubMed

    Shapiro, Michael D; Fazio, Sergio

    2016-02-19

    The introduction of statins ≈30 years ago ushered in the era of lipid lowering as the most effective way to reduce risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Nonetheless, residual risk remains high, and statin intolerance is frequently encountered in clinical practice. After a long dry period, the field of therapeutics targeted to lipids and atherosclerosis has entered a renaissance. Moreover, the demonstration of clinical benefits from the addition of ezetimibe to statin therapy in subjects with acute coronary syndromes has renewed the enthusiasm for the cholesterol hypothesis and the hope that additional agents that lower low-density lipoprotein will decrease risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Drugs in the orphan disease category are now available for patients with the most extreme hypercholesterolemia. Furthermore, discovery and rapid translation of a novel biological pathway has given rise to a new class of cholesterol-lowering drugs, the proprotein convertase subtilisin kexin-9 inhibitors. Trials of niacin added to statin have failed to demonstrate cardiac benefits, and 3 cholesterol ester transfer protein inhibitors have also failed to reduce atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk, despite producing substantial increases in HDL levels. Although the utility of triglyceride-lowering therapies remains uncertain, 2 large clinical trials are testing the influence of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids on atherosclerotic events in hypertriglyceridemia. Novel antisense therapies targeting apolipoprotein C-III (for triglyceride reduction) and apo(a) (for lipoprotein(a) reduction) are showing a promising trajectory. Finally, 2 large clinical trials are formally putting the inflammatory hypothesis of atherosclerosis to the test and may open a new avenue for cardiovascular disease risk reduction. PMID:26892970

  11. Cumulative Risk Assessment Toolbox: Methods and Approaches for the Practitioner

    PubMed Central

    MacDonell, Margaret M.; Haroun, Lynne A.; Teuschler, Linda K.; Rice, Glenn E.; Hertzberg, Richard C.; Butler, James P.; Chang, Young-Soo; Clark, Shanna L.; Johns, Alan P.; Perry, Camarie S.; Garcia, Shannon S.; Jacobi, John H.; Scofield, Marcienne A.

    2013-01-01

    The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1) planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2) environmental fate and transport; (3) exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4) toxicity analysis; and (5) risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities. PMID:23762048

  12. Experimental approaches for evaluating the invasion risk of biofuel crops

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flory, S. Luke; Lorentz, Kimberly A.; Gordon, Doria R.; Sollenberger, Lynn E.

    2012-12-01

    There is growing concern that non-native plants cultivated for bioenergy production might escape and result in harmful invasions in natural areas. Literature-derived assessment tools used to evaluate invasion risk are beneficial for screening, but cannot be used to assess novel cultivars or genotypes. Experimental approaches are needed to help quantify invasion risk but protocols for such tools are lacking. We review current methods for evaluating invasion risk and make recommendations for incremental tests from small-scale experiments to widespread, controlled introductions. First, local experiments should be performed to identify conditions that are favorable for germination, survival, and growth of candidate biofuel crops. Subsequently, experimental introductions in semi-natural areas can be used to assess factors important for establishment and performance such as disturbance, founder population size, and timing of introduction across variable habitats. Finally, to fully characterize invasion risk, experimental introductions should be conducted across the expected geographic range of cultivation over multiple years. Any field-based testing should be accompanied by safeguards and monitoring for early detection of spread. Despite the costs of conducting experimental tests of invasion risk, empirical screening will greatly improve our ability to determine if the benefits of a proposed biofuel species outweigh the projected risks of invasions.

  13. Agents, Bayes, and Climatic Risks - a modular modelling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haas, A.; Jaeger, C.

    2005-08-01

    When insurance firms, energy companies, governments, NGOs, and other agents strive to manage climatic risks, it is by no way clear what the aggregate outcome should and will be. As a framework for investigating this subject, we present the LAGOM model family. It is based on modules depicting learning social agents. For managing climate risks, our agents use second order probabilities and update them by means of a Bayesian mechanism while differing in priors and risk aversion. The interactions between these modules and the aggregate outcomes of their actions are implemented using further modules. The software system is implemented as a series of parallel processes using the CIAMn approach. It is possible to couple modules irrespective of the language they are written in, the operating system under which they are run, and the physical location of the machine.

  14. Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System

    SciTech Connect

    Gehlhaus, Martin W.; Gift, Jeffrey S.; Hogan, Karen A.; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M.; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

    2011-07-15

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment.

  15. Protecting the Smart Grid: A Risk Based Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Clements, Samuel L.; Kirkham, Harold; Elizondo, Marcelo A.; Lu, Shuai

    2011-10-10

    This paper describes a risk-based approach to security that has been used for years in protecting physical assets, and shows how it could be modified to help secure the digital aspects of the smart grid and control systems in general. One way the smart grid has been said to be vulnerable is that mass load fluctuations could be created by quickly turning off and on large quantities of smart meters. We investigate the plausibility.

  16. [Outsourcing in long-term care: a risk management approach].

    PubMed

    Guimarães, Cristina Machado; Carvalho, José Crespo de

    2012-05-01

    This article seeks to investigate outsourcing decisions in supply chain management of healthcare organizations, namely the motives and constraints behind the decision, the selection criteria for activities to be outsourced to third parties, the type of possible agreements, and the impact of this decision on the organization per se. A case study of the start-up phase of a Long-term Care unit with an innovative approach and high levels of customization was conducted to understand the outsourcing process in a start-up context (not in the standard context of organizational change) and a risk evaluation matrix was created for outsourcing activities in order to define and implement a performance monitoring process. This study seeks to understand how to evaluate and assess the risks of an outsourcing strategy and proposes a monitoring model using risk management tools. It was shown that the risk management approach can be a solution for monitoring outsourcing in the organizational start-up phase. Conclusions concerning dissatisfaction with the results of outsourcing strategies adopted are also presented. PMID:22634811

  17. Risk stratification for wilms tumor: current approach and future directions.

    PubMed

    Dome, Jeffrey S; Perlman, Elizabeth J; Graf, Norbert

    2014-01-01

    Wilms tumor, or nephroblastoma, has provided a paradigm for progressive improvement in clinical outcomes achieved through serial cooperative group studies. With modern surgery, chemotherapy, and radiation therapy approaches, the overall survival rate for patients with Wilms tumor has reached 90%. Remarkably, the increase in survival has been achieved with a reduction in therapy for most patient subgroups, leading not only to more survivors, but also to healthier survivors. A key contributor to improved outcomes has been the development of clinical and biologic prognostic markers that have enabled risk-directed therapy. Whereas the early cooperative group studies used only tumor stage for risk stratification, current Children's Oncology Group (COG) and International Society of Pediatric Oncology (SIOP) protocols employ a multitude of prognostic factors to guide therapy. Prognostic factors used in the current generation of COG studies include stage, histology, patient age, tumor weight, completeness of lung nodule response, and loss of heterozygosity at chromosomes 1p and 16q. Future COG studies seek to incorporate gain of chromosome 1q and methylation pattern of chromosome 11p15 into the risk classification schema. Prognostic factors used in the current SIOP studies include stage, histology, tumor volume, and responsiveness to therapy. Future SIOP studies seek to incorporate absolute blastemal volume and novel molecular markers for resistant blastema into the risk stratification approach. PMID:24857079

  18. 12 CFR 3.52 - Simple risk-weight approach (SRWA).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Simple risk-weight approach (SRWA). 3.52... STANDARDS Risk-Weighted Assets-Standardized Approach Risk-Weighted Assets for Equity Exposures § 3.52 Simple risk-weight approach (SRWA). (a) General. Under the SRWA, a national bank's or Federal...

  19. Added value of hepatobiliary phase gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI for diagnosing hepatocellular carcinoma in high-risk patients

    PubMed Central

    Phongkitkarun, Sith; Limsamutpetch, Kuruwin; Tannaphai, Penampai; Jatchavala, Janjira

    2013-01-01

    AIM: To determine the added value of hepatobiliary phase (HBP) gadoxetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in evaluating hepatic nodules in high-risk patients. METHODS: The institutional review board approved this retrospective study and waived the requirement for informed consent. This study included 100 patients at high risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and 105 hepatic nodules that were larger than 1 cm. A blind review of two MR image sets was performed in a random order: set 1, unenhanced (T1- and T2-weighted) and dynamic images; and set 2, unenhanced, dynamic 20-min and HBP images. The diagnostic accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were compared for the two image sets. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed on the MR characteristics utilized to diagnose HCC. RESULTS: A total of 105 hepatic nodules were identified in 100 patients. Fifty-nine nodules were confirmed to be HCC. The diameter of the 59 HCCs ranged from 1 to 12 cm (mean: 1.9 cm). The remaining 46 nodules were benign (28 were of hepatocyte origin, nine were hepatic cysts, seven were hemangiomas, one was chronic inflammation, and one was focal fat infiltration). The diagnostic accuracy significantly increased with the addition of HBP images, from 88.7% in set 1 to 95.5% in set 2 (P = 0.002). In set 1 vs set 2, the sensitivity and NPV increased from 79.7% to 93.2% and from 78.9% to 91.8%, respectively, whereas the specificity and PPV were not significantly different. The hypointensity on the HBP images was the most sensitive (93.2%), and typical arterial enhancement followed by washout was the most specific (97.8%). The multivariate analysis revealed that typical arterial enhancement followed by washout, hyperintensity on T2-weighted images, and hypointensity on HBP images were statistically significant MRI findings that could diagnose HCC (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The addition of HBP gadoxetic acid

  20. A physical approach on flood risk vulnerability of buildings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazzorana, B.; Simoni, S.; Scherer, C.; Gems, B.; Fuchs, S.; Keiler, M.

    2014-09-01

    The design of efficient hydrological risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the elements exposed. Recently, extensive research efforts were undertaken to develop and refine empirical relationships linking the structural vulnerability of buildings to the impact forces of the hazard processes. These empirical vulnerability functions allow estimating the expected direct losses as a result of the hazard scenario based on spatially explicit representation of the process patterns and the elements at risk classified into defined typological categories. However, due to the underlying empiricism of such vulnerability functions, the physics of the damage-generating mechanisms for a well-defined element at risk with its peculiar geometry and structural characteristics remain unveiled, and, as such, the applicability of the empirical approach for planning hazard-proof residential buildings is limited. Therefore, we propose a conceptual assessment scheme to close this gap. This assessment scheme encompasses distinct analytical steps: modelling (a) the process intensity, (b) the impact on the element at risk exposed and (c) the physical response of the building envelope. Furthermore, these results provide the input data for the subsequent damage evaluation and economic damage valuation. This dynamic assessment supports all relevant planning activities with respect to a minimisation of losses, and can be implemented in the operational risk assessment procedure.

  1. A physical approach on flood risk vulnerability of buildings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazzorana, B.; Simoni, S.; Scherer, C.; Gems, B.; Fuchs, S.; Keiler, M.

    2014-02-01

    The design of efficient hydrological risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the elements exposed. Recently, extensive research efforts were undertaken to develop and refine empirical relationships linking the structural vulnerability of buildings to the impact forces of the hazard processes. These empirical vulnerability functions allow estimating the expected direct losses as a result of the hazard scenario based on spatially explicit representation of the process patterns and the elements at risk classified into defined typological categories. However, due to the underlying empiricism of such vulnerability functions, the physics of the damage generating mechanisms for a well-defined element at risk with its peculiar geometry and structural characteristics remain unveiled, and, as such, the applicability of the empirical approach for planning hazard-proof residential buildings is limited. Therefore, we propose a conceptual assessment scheme to close this gap. This assessment scheme encompasses distinct analytical steps: modelling (a) the process intensity, (b) the impact on the element at risk exposed and (c) the physical response of the building envelope. Furthermore, these results provide the input data for the subsequent damage evaluation and economic damage valuation. This dynamic assessment supports all relevant planning activities with respect to a minimisation of losses, and can be implemented in the operational risk assessment procedure.

  2. A performance-based approach to landslide risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romeo, R. W.

    2009-04-01

    An approach for the risk assessment based on a probabilistic analysis of the performance of structures threatened by landslides is shown and discussed. The risk is a possible loss due to the occurrence of a potentially damaging event. Analytically the risk is the probability convolution of hazard, which defines the frequency of occurrence of the event (i.e., the demand), and fragility that defines the capacity of the system to withstand the event given its characteristics (i.e., severity) and those of the exposed goods (vulnerability), that is: Risk=p(D>=d|S,V) The inequality sets a damage (or loss) threshold beyond which the system's performance is no longer met. Therefore a consistent approach to risk assessment should: 1) adopt a probabilistic model which takes into account all the uncertainties of the involved variables (capacity and demand), 2) follow a performance approach based on given loss or damage thresholds. The proposed method belongs to the category of the semi-empirical ones: the theoretical component is given by the probabilistic capacity-demand model; the empirical component is given by the observed statistical behaviour of structures damaged by landslides. Two landslide properties alone are required: the area-extent and the type (or kinematism). All other properties required to determine the severity of landslides (such as depth, speed and frequency) are derived via probabilistic methods. The severity (or intensity) of landslides, in terms of kinetic energy, is the demand of resistance; the resistance capacity is given by the cumulative distribution functions of the limit state performance (fragility functions) assessed via damage surveys and cards compilation. The investigated limit states are aesthetic (of nominal concern alone), functional (interruption of service) and structural (economic and social losses). The damage probability is the probabilistic convolution of hazard (the probability mass function of the frequency of occurrence of given

  3. Clinical Assessment of Risk Management: an INtegrated Approach (CARMINA).

    PubMed

    Tricarico, Pierfrancesco; Tardivo, Stefano; Sotgiu, Giovanni; Moretti, Francesca; Poletti, Piera; Fiore, Alberto; Monturano, Massimo; Mura, Ida; Privitera, Gaetano; Brusaferro, Silvio

    2016-08-01

    Purpose - The European Union recommendations for patient safety calls for shared clinical risk management (CRM) safety standards able to guide organizations in CRM implementation. The purpose of this paper is to develop a self-evaluation tool to measure healthcare organization performance on CRM and guide improvements over time. Design/methodology/approach - A multi-step approach was implemented including: a systematic literature review; consensus meetings with an expert panel from eight Italian leader organizations to get to an agreement on the first version; field testing to test instrument feasibility and flexibility; Delphi strategy with a second expert panel for content validation and balanced scoring system development. Findings - The self-assessment tool - Clinical Assessment of Risk Management: an INtegrated Approach includes seven areas (governance, communication, knowledge and skills, safe environment, care processes, adverse event management, learning from experience) and 52 standards. Each standard is evaluated according to four performance levels: minimum; monitoring; outcomes; and improvement actions, which resulted in a feasible, flexible and valid instrument to be used throughout different organizations. Practical implications - This tool allows practitioners to assess their CRM activities compared to minimum levels, monitor performance, benchmarking with other institutions and spreading results to different stakeholders. Originality/value - The multi-step approach allowed us to identify core minimum CRM levels in a field where no consensus has been reached. Most standards may be easily adopted in other countries. PMID:27477931

  4. Mediterranean Storms: An Integrated Approach of Risk Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karageorgou, H.; Riza, E.; Linos, A.; Papanikolaou, D.

    2010-09-01

    Disaster by UN definition is "a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society, involving widespread human, material, economic, or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using only its own resources". Mediterranean storms induce flash floods caused by excessive amounts of rainfall within a short lasting period of time. The intensity and duration of precipitation, region geomorphology, urbanization and different governmental emergency management structures trigger different consequences between Mediterranean countries. The integrated approach in management of storm risk represents a holistic perspective including interactions between government, science and technology institutions, developing agencies, private sector, NGOs and public. Local authorities and national government are responsible for the design, preparation and decision on storm risk management policies and strategies considering scientific risk identifying, assessing and understanding. Efficient governance management requires satisfied response to early warning systems, functionality of the affected systems upon which society depends and appropriate focus on variable interest, beliefs, values and ideologies between social groups. Also an appropriate balancing of benefits and costs in an efficient and equitable manner is important for the governance risk management. Natural sciences in corporation with the engineering science have developed effective early prediction, warning and monitoring systems on storm and flood risk. The health sciences use prediction systems for health related hazards and consequences and the social sciences research estimates the human resilience during disasters and the factors which affect and determine the human behavior. Also social sciences survey the response of public to early warning messages, the appropriate communicative methods to distributing messages and mechanisms to improve public

  5. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System State-Added Questions: Leveraging an Existing Surveillance System to Improve Knowledge of Women's Reproductive Health.

    PubMed

    Boulet, Sheree L; Warner, Lee; Adamski, Alys; Smith, Ruben A; Burley, Kim; Grigorescu, Violanda

    2016-06-01

    As the prevalence of chronic conditions among women of reproductive age continues to rise, studies assessing the intersection of chronic disease and women's reproductive health status are increasingly needed. However, many data systems collect only limited information on women's reproductive health, thereby hampering the appraisal of risk and protective factors across the life span. One way to expand the study of women's health with minimal investment in time and resources is to integrate questions on reproductive health into existing surveillance systems. In 2013, previously validated questions on women's self-reported reproductive history, use of contraception, and infertility were added to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) by seven states (Connecticut, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Ohio, Texas, and Utah); all female respondents aged 18-50 years were included in the pool of respondents for these state-added questions. Of 8691 women who completed the questions, 13.2% reported ever experiencing infertility and 59.8% of those at risk for unintended pregnancy reported using contraception at last intercourse. The information garnered from the state-added reproductive health questions can be augmented with the BRFSS core questions on health-related risk behaviors, chronic conditions, and use of preventive services. Expanding existing data collection systems with supplemental questions on women's reproductive health can provide important information on risk factors and outcomes that may not be available from other sources. PMID:27227657

  6. Risk management measures for chemicals: the "COSHH essentials" approach.

    PubMed

    Garrod, A N I; Evans, P G; Davy, C W

    2007-12-01

    "COSHH essentials" was developed in Great Britain to help duty holders comply with the Control of Substances Hazardous to Health (COSHH) Regulations. It uses a similar approach to that described in the new European "REACH" Regulation (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals; EC No. 1907/2006 of the European Parliament), insofar as it identifies measures for managing the risk for specified exposure scenarios. It can therefore assist REACH duty holders with the identification and communication of appropriate risk-management measures. The technical basis for COSHH essentials is explained in the original papers published in the Annals of Occupational Hygiene. Its details will, therefore, not be described here; rather, its ability to provide a suitable means for communicating risk-management measures will be explored. COSHH essentials is a simple tool based on an empirical approach to risk assessment and risk management. The output is a "Control Guidance Sheet" that lists the "dos" and "don'ts" for control in a specific task scenario. The guidance in COSHH essentials recognises that exposure in the workplace will depend not just on mechanical controls, but also on a number of other factors, including administrative and behavioural controls, such as systems of work, supervision and training. In 2002, COSHH essentials was made freely available via the internet (http://www.coshh-essentials.org.uk/). This electronic delivery enabled links to be made between product series that share tasks, such as drum filling, and with ancillary guidance, such as setting up health surveillance for work with a respiratory sensitiser. COSHH essentials has proved to be a popular tool for communicating good control practice. It has attracted over 1 million visits to its site since its launch. It offers a common benchmark of good practice for chemical users, manufacturers, suppliers and importers, as well as regulators and health professionals. PMID:17565355

  7. Mediterranean Storms: An Integrated Approach of Risk Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karageorgou, H.; Riza, E.; Linos, A.; Papanikolaou, D.

    2010-09-01

    Disaster by UN definition is "a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society, involving widespread human, material, economic, or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using only its own resources". Mediterranean storms induce flash floods caused by excessive amounts of rainfall within a short lasting period of time. The intensity and duration of precipitation, region geomorphology, urbanization and different governmental emergency management structures trigger different consequences between Mediterranean countries. The integrated approach in management of storm risk represents a holistic perspective including interactions between government, science and technology institutions, developing agencies, private sector, NGOs and public. Local authorities and national government are responsible for the design, preparation and decision on storm risk management policies and strategies considering scientific risk identifying, assessing and understanding. Efficient governance management requires satisfied response to early warning systems, functionality of the affected systems upon which society depends and appropriate focus on variable interest, beliefs, values and ideologies between social groups. Also an appropriate balancing of benefits and costs in an efficient and equitable manner is important for the governance risk management. Natural sciences in corporation with the engineering science have developed effective early prediction, warning and monitoring systems on storm and flood risk. The health sciences use prediction systems for health related hazards and consequences and the social sciences research estimates the human resilience during disasters and the factors which affect and determine the human behavior. Also social sciences survey the response of public to early warning messages, the appropriate communicative methods to distributing messages and mechanisms to improve public

  8. 77 FR 29391 - An Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Decisions on Plant-Specific...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-05-17

    ... COMMISSION An Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Decisions on Plant-Specific Changes... Assessment in Risk- Informed Decisions on Plant-Specific Changes to the Licensing Basis,'' (proposed Revision... Assessment Results for Risk-Informed Activities'' and the references were updated. It is the intent of...

  9. A new approach for calculating the relative risk level of pesticides.

    PubMed

    Yazgan, Mustafa Sait; Tanik, Aysegul

    2005-07-01

    The following paper describes a new, easier to use approach to the calculation of relative risk levels of alternative pesticides. An insect, a plant disease, and a weed were selected for describing the application procedure of a new ranking method that is based on the intrinsic properties of pesticides rather than on the processes that occur both on land and in water after they are applied to soil. The approach is based on the Toxicity-Human health-Persistency (THP) Hazard Rating System, and a consumption factor is added to the method in order to calculate the environmental risk of pesticides. The available substitute pesticides are ranked in terms of their relative risk levels from lowest to highest in order of magnitude difference. Such a ranking method may be used as a practical quantitative tool to generate significant findings aiding in the selection of the most environmentally friendly substitute against a certain pest, especially in developing countries that still face the misuse and/or unconscious use of pesticides. PMID:15910965

  10. Geospatial modeling approach to monument construction using Michigan from A.D. 1000–1600 as a case study

    PubMed Central

    Howey, Meghan C. L.; Palace, Michael W.; McMichael, Crystal H.

    2016-01-01

    Building monuments was one way that past societies reconfigured their landscapes in response to shifting social and ecological factors. Understanding the connections between those factors and monument construction is critical, especially when multiple types of monuments were constructed across the same landscape. Geospatial technologies enable past cultural activities and environmental variables to be examined together at large scales. Many geospatial modeling approaches, however, are not designed for presence-only (occurrence) data, which can be limiting given that many archaeological site records are presence only. We use maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt), which works with presence-only data, to predict the distribution of monuments across large landscapes, and we analyze MaxEnt output to quantify the contributions of spatioenvironmental variables to predicted distributions. We apply our approach to co-occurring Late Precontact (ca. A.D. 1000–1600) monuments in Michigan: (i) mounds and (ii) earthwork enclosures. Many of these features have been destroyed by modern development, and therefore, we conducted archival research to develop our monument occurrence database. We modeled each monument type separately using the same input variables. Analyzing variable contribution to MaxEnt output, we show that mound and enclosure landscape suitability was driven by contrasting variables. Proximity to inland lakes was key to mound placement, and proximity to rivers was key to sacred enclosures. This juxtaposition suggests that mounds met local needs for resource procurement success, whereas enclosures filled broader regional needs for intergroup exchange and shared ritual. Our study shows how MaxEnt can be used to develop sophisticated models of past cultural processes, including monument building, with imperfect, limited, presence-only data. PMID:27330115

  11. Geospatial modeling approach to monument construction using Michigan from A.D. 1000-1600 as a case study.

    PubMed

    Howey, Meghan C L; Palace, Michael W; McMichael, Crystal H

    2016-07-01

    Building monuments was one way that past societies reconfigured their landscapes in response to shifting social and ecological factors. Understanding the connections between those factors and monument construction is critical, especially when multiple types of monuments were constructed across the same landscape. Geospatial technologies enable past cultural activities and environmental variables to be examined together at large scales. Many geospatial modeling approaches, however, are not designed for presence-only (occurrence) data, which can be limiting given that many archaeological site records are presence only. We use maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt), which works with presence-only data, to predict the distribution of monuments across large landscapes, and we analyze MaxEnt output to quantify the contributions of spatioenvironmental variables to predicted distributions. We apply our approach to co-occurring Late Precontact (ca. A.D. 1000-1600) monuments in Michigan: (i) mounds and (ii) earthwork enclosures. Many of these features have been destroyed by modern development, and therefore, we conducted archival research to develop our monument occurrence database. We modeled each monument type separately using the same input variables. Analyzing variable contribution to MaxEnt output, we show that mound and enclosure landscape suitability was driven by contrasting variables. Proximity to inland lakes was key to mound placement, and proximity to rivers was key to sacred enclosures. This juxtaposition suggests that mounds met local needs for resource procurement success, whereas enclosures filled broader regional needs for intergroup exchange and shared ritual. Our study shows how MaxEnt can be used to develop sophisticated models of past cultural processes, including monument building, with imperfect, limited, presence-only data. PMID:27330115

  12. SARA: a self-adaptive and resource-aware approach towards secure wireless ad hoc and sensor networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chigan, Chunxiao; Li, Leiyuan

    2005-05-01

    Providing security is essential for mission critical Wireless Ad Hoc and Sensor Networks (WAHSN) applications. Often a highly secure mechanism inevitably consumes a rather large amount of system resources, which in turn may unintentionally cause a Security Service Denial of Service (SSDoS) attack. This paper proposes a self-adaptive resource-aware (SARA) security provisioning approach for WAHSNs. For resource scarce WAHSNs, SARA strives to provide the optimal tradeoff between the sufficient security (which is reflected by the Security Index (SI)) and the acceptable network performance degradation (which is reflected by the Performance Index (PI)). With the support of the offline optimal secure protocol selection module and the online self-adaptive security control module, SARA is capable of employing different combinations of secure protocol sets to satisfy different security need at different condition for different applications. To determine the security index SI of a secure protocol set, a heuristic cross-layer security-service mapping mechanism is presented. Furthermore, we evaluate performance index PI of a secure protocol set via simulation followed by Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). Consequently, the proposed self-adaptive security provisioning based on both SI and PI achieves the maximum overall network security services and network performance services, without causing the SSDoS attack. Furthermore, this self-adaptive mechanism is capable of switching from one secure protocol set to another while keeping similar level of security and performance, it thus provides additional security by security service hopping.

  13. Added sugar, sugar-sweetened foods and beverages and risk of pancreatic cancer in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study

    PubMed Central

    Bao, Ying; Stolzenberg-Solomon, Rachael; Jiao, Li; Silverman, Debra T.; Subar, Amy F.; Park, Yikyung; Leitzmann, Michael F.; Hollenbeck, Albert; Schatzkin, Arthur; Michaud, Dominique S.

    2012-01-01

    Background Although hyperglycemia, hyperinsulinemia and insulin resistance have been hypothesized to be involved in the development of pancreatic cancer, results from epidemiologic studies on added sugar intake are inconclusive. Objective Our objective was to investigate whether the consumption of total added sugar, sugar-sweetened foods and beverages is associated with pancreatic cancer risk. Design We prospectively examined 487922 men and women aged 50–71 years and free of cancer and diabetes in 1995–96. Total added dietary sugar intake in teaspoons per day (based on USDA’s Pyramid Servings Database) was assessed with a food frequency questionnaire. Relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated with adjustment for total energy and potential confounding factors. Results During an average 7.2 years of follow-up, 1258 incident pancreatic cancer cases were ascertained. The median intakes for the lowest and highest quintiles of total added sugar intake were 12.6 g/day and 96.2 g/day. No overall increased risk of pancreatic cancer was observed in men or women with high intake of total added sugar or sugar-sweetened foods and beverages. For men and women combined, the multivariate RRs of the highest versus lowest intake categories were 0.85 (95% CI: 0.68, 1.06; P trend= 0.07) for total added sugar, 1.01 (95% CI: 0.82,1.23; P trend= 0.58) for sweets, 0.98 (95% CI: 0.82,1.18; P trend= 0.49) for dairy desserts, 1.12 (95% CI: 0.91,1.39; P trend= 0.35) for sugar added to coffee and tea, and 1.01 (95% CI: 0.77,1.31; P trend= 0.76) for sugar-sweetened soft drinks. Conclusion Our results do not support the hypothesis that consumption of added sugar, or sugar-sweetened foods and beverages is associated with overall risk of pancreatic cancer. PMID:18689380

  14. Rock Slide Risk Assessment: A Semi-Quantitative Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duzgun, H. S. B.

    2009-04-01

    Remnefjell is used for evaluation of frequency based probability to be used in risk assessment. The major consequence of a rock slide is generation of a tsunami in the lake Loen, causing inundation of residential areas around the lake. Risk is assessed by adapting damage probability matrix approach, which is originally developed for risk assessment for buildings in case of earthquake.

  15. The Prediflood database. A new tool for an integrated approach to historical floods in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula), AD 1033-2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barriendos, Mariano; Carles Balasch Solanes, Josep; Tuset, Jordi; Lluís Ruiz-Bellet, Josep

    2014-05-01

    Available information of historical floods can improve the management of hydroclimatic hazards. This approach is useful in ungauged basins or with short instrumental data series. On the other hand, flood risk is increasing due to both the expansion of human land occupation and the modification of rainfall patterns in the present global climatic change scenario. Within the Prediflood Project, we have designed an integrated database of historical floods in Catalonia with the aim to feed data to: 1) Meteorological reconstruction and modelling. 2) Hydrological and hydraulic reconstruction. 3) Human impacts evaluation, of these floods. The firsts steps of the database design focus on spatial location and on the quality of the data sources in three levels: 1) Historical documentary sources and newspapers contemporary with the floods. 2) Local historiography. 3) Technical reports. After the application of historiographical methodologies, more than 2300 flood records have been added to the database so far. Despite the completion of the database is still a work in progress, the firsts analyses are already underway and focus on the largest floods with catastrophic effects simultaneously on more than 15 catchments: November 1617, October 1787, September 1842, May 1853, September 1874, January 1898, October 1907, October 1940, September 1962, November 1982, October 1994 and others.

  16. Cardiovascular risk reduction: an interdisciplinary approach to research training.

    PubMed

    Levine, D M; Green, L W

    1981-01-01

    The major health problems confronting most countries require interdisciplinary approaches to the provision of service, teaching, and investigation. Past research indicates difficulty in role relations between various types of health professionals and the importance of the interaction of selection, educational processes and work experiences in affecting long-term professional behaviour in collaborative directions. This paper applies these concepts to the analysis of the first five years of experience in a pre- and post-doctoral research training programme at the Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions concerned with educational and behavioural approaches to cardiovascular risk reduction. Concepts or processes specifically incorporated into the programme to increase the likelihood of graduates conducting their subsequent career activities from an interdisciplinary approach are described and analyzed. These include appropriate recruitment and selection; early interdisciplinary learning experiences; reinforcing socialization and professionalization processes; active faculty role model team approaches; and reinforcing research experiences. To date the programme has provided training to 14 post-doctoral and 16 predoctoral fellows. Analysis of the effect of the programme on the cardiovascular fellows in regard to their performance, interdisciplinary approach, subsequent career patterns and performance, as well as on other students not supported by the programme, and upon faculty, recommends this format for research training in health education and behavioural sciences. PMID:7293487

  17. Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots: Transition to a Regional Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lerner-Lam, A.; Chen, R.; Dilley, M.

    2005-12-01

    economic losses, are also limited. On one hand the data are adequate for general identification of areas of the globe that are at relatively higher single- or multiple-hazard risk than other areas. On the other hand they are inadequate for understanding the absolute levels of risk posed by any specific hazard or combination of hazards. Nevertheless it is possible to assess in general terms the exposure and potential magnitude of losses to people and their assets in these areas. Such information, although not ideal, can still be very useful for informing a range of disaster prevention and preparedness measures, including prioritization of resources, targeting of more localized and detailed risk assessments, implementation of risk-based disaster management and emergency response strategies, and development of long-term plans for poverty reduction and economic development. In addition to summarizing the results of the Hotspots Project, we discuss data collection issues and suggest methodological approaches for making the transition to more detailed regional and national studies. Preliminary results for several regional case studies will be presented.

  18. Approach to Assessment of Risk Factors in Mild Hypertension

    PubMed Central

    Stuart, K. L.; Desai, Patricia; Lalsingh, Adella

    1974-01-01

    Criteria are urgently needed for the early detection of subjects with only mildly raised blood pressure who may be at high risk of developing the complications of hypertension. As a step towards the establishment of such criteria we have examined the association of certain possible “risk” factors—namely, x-ray evidence of cardiac enlargement, high serum cholesterol levels, effort pain, E.C.G. abnormalities, and high systolic blood pressure—with fatal or morbid endpoints in a five-year follow-up study of subjects whose diastolic pressure had been found initially to be between 95 and 114 mm Hg. The index group consisted of 22 patients in whom these end-points occurred. They comprised death from cardiovascular disease, clinical or E.C.G. deterioration, and either an increase in diastolic pressure of at least 10 mm Hg or a diastolic pressure of 115 mm Hg or both. The control group consisted of 22 subjects chosen at random from other respondents with the same range of diastolic pressures and the same age and sex distribution. “Any two or more” of the possible risk factors examined were found to occur significantly more often in the index group than in the controls, suggesting a possible approach to the early detection of high-risk subjects. The value of longterm studies along these lines and the urgent need for them are emphasized. PMID:4275518

  19. Mapping African animal trypanosomosis risk: the landscape approach.

    PubMed

    Guerrini, Laure; Bouyer, Jérémy

    2007-01-01

    African animal trypanosomosis (AAT) is a major hindrance to cattle breeding in the Mouhoun River Basin of Burkina Faso. The authors describe a landscape approach that enables the mapping of tsetse densities and AAT risk along the Mouhoun River loop (702 km long) in Burkina Faso. Three epidemiological landscapes were described: the first and most dangerous corresponded to protected forests and their border areas, with a 0.74 apparent density of infectious fly per trap per day (ADTi), the second to a partially disturbed vegetal formation, with a 0.20 ADTi and the third to a completely disturbed landscape with a 0.08 ADTi. Using this risk indicator, the first landscape was 3.92 more risky than the second which was 3.13 more risky than the last. Similar infectious rates were found in all landscapes (approximately 8%) but tsetse apparent densities dropped significantly (p<0.001) in half-disturbed (2.66) and disturbed landscapes (0.80) in comparison to the natural and border landscapes (11.77). Females were significantly younger (mean physiological age of 29 days) only in the most disturbed landscape (p<0.05) than in the two others one (41 days). According to these results, practical implications of stratifying AAT risk and mapping tsetse densities in vector control campaigns are discussed. PMID:20422544

  20. Farms adaptation to changes in flood risk: a management approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pivot, Jean-Marc; Martin, Philippe

    2002-10-01

    Creating flood expansion areas e.g. for the protection of urban areas from flooding involves a localised increase in risk which may require farmers to be compensated for crop damage or other losses. With this in mind, the paper sets out the approach used to study the problem and gives results obtained from a survey of farms liable to flooding in central France. The approach is based on a study of decisions made by farmers in situations of uncertainty, using the concept of 'model of action'. The results show that damage caused to farming areas by flooding should be considered both at field level and at farm level. The damage caused to the field depends on the flood itself, the fixed characteristics of the field, and the plant species cultivated. However, the losses to the farm taken as a whole can differ considerably from those for the flooded field, due to 'knock-on' effects on farm operations which depend on the internal organization, the availability of production resources, and the farmer's objectives, both for the farm as a whole and for its individual enterprises. Three main strategies regarding possible flood events were identified. Reasons for choosing one of these include the way the farmer perceives the risk and the size of the area liable to flooding. Finally, the formalisation of farm system management in the face of uncertainty, especially due to flooding, enables compensation to be calculated for farmers whose land is affected by the creation of flood expansion areas.

  1. A unified approach to hadron phenomenology at zero and finite temperatures in a hard-wall AdS/QCD model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhiyuan; Ma, Bo-Qiang

    2016-05-01

    We propose a unified approach to study meson, nucleon and Δ -baryon properties at zero and finite temperatures in the context of hard-wall AdS/QCD model. We first combine some previous works dealing with mesons and baryons separately, and introduce a new parameter ξ so that the model could give a universal description of spectrum and couplings of both sectors in a self-consistent way. All observables calculated numerically show reasonable agreement with experimental data. We then study these observables at nonzero temperature by modifying the AdS space-time into AdS-Schwartzchild space-time. Numerically solving the model, we find an interesting temperature dependence of the spectrum and the couplings. We also make a prediction on the finite-temperature decay width of some nucleon and Δ excited states.

  2. An Entropy Approach to Disclosure Risk Assessment: Lessons from Real Applications and Simulated Domains

    PubMed Central

    Airoldi, Edoardo M.; Bai, Xue; Malin, Bradley A.

    2011-01-01

    leveraging the statistical characteristics of a visit distribution, as opposed to person-level data. It is computationally efficient and superior to existing risk assessment methods, which rely on ad hoc assessment that are often computationally expensive and unreliable. We evaluate our approach on a range of location access patterns in simulated environments. Our results demonstrate the approach is effective at estimating trail disclosure risks and the amount of self-information contained in a distributed system is one of the main driving factors. PMID:21647242

  3. Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sterlacchini, S.; Frigerio, S.; Giacomelli, P.; Brambilla, M.

    2007-11-01

    This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004) on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps), poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis. A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event) was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities). This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect damage ranged considerably

  4. Integrated approach for coastal hazards and risks in Sri Lanka

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcin, M.; Desprats, J. F.; Fontaine, M.; Pedreros, R.; Attanayake, N.; Fernando, S.; Siriwardana, C. H. E. R.; de Silva, U.; Poisson, B.

    2008-06-01

    The devastating impact of the tsunami of 26 December 2004 on the shores of the Indian Ocean recalled the importance of knowledge and the taking into account of coastal hazards. Sri Lanka was one of the countries most affected by this tsunami (e.g. 30 000 dead, 1 million people homeless and 70% of the fishing fleet destroyed). Following this tsunami, as part of the French post-tsunami aid, a project to establish a Geographical Information System (GIS) on coastal hazards and risks was funded. This project aims to define, at a pilot site, a methodology for multiple coastal hazards assessment that might be useful for the post-tsunami reconstruction and for development planning. This methodology could be applied to the whole coastline of Sri Lanka. The multi-hazard approach deals with very different coastal processes in terms of dynamics as well as in terms of return period. The first elements of this study are presented here. We used a set of tools integrating a GIS, numerical simulations and risk scenario modelling. While this action occurred in response to the crisis caused by the tsunami, it was decided to integrate other coastal hazards into the study. Although less dramatic than the tsunami these remain responsible for loss of life and damage. Furthermore, the establishment of such a system could not ignore the longer-term effects of climate change on coastal hazards in Sri Lanka. This GIS integrates the physical and demographic data available in Sri Lanka that is useful for assessing the coastal hazards and risks. In addition, these data have been used in numerical modelling of the waves generated during periods of monsoon as well as for the December 2004 tsunami. Risk scenarios have also been assessed for test areas and validated by field data acquired during the project. The results obtained from the models can be further integrated into the GIS and contribute to its enrichment and to help in better assessment and mitigation of these risks. The coastal-hazards-and-risks

  5. Risk-Based Probabilistic Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tong, Michael T.

    2002-01-01

    In an era of shrinking development budgets and resources, where there is also an emphasis on reducing the product development cycle, the role of system assessment, performed in the early stages of an engine development program, becomes very critical to the successful development of new aeropropulsion systems. A reliable system assessment not only helps to identify the best propulsion system concept among several candidates, it can also identify which technologies are worth pursuing. This is particularly important for advanced aeropropulsion technology development programs, which require an enormous amount of resources. In the current practice of deterministic, or point-design, approaches, the uncertainties of design variables are either unaccounted for or accounted for by safety factors. This could often result in an assessment with unknown and unquantifiable reliability. Consequently, it would fail to provide additional insight into the risks associated with the new technologies, which are often needed by decision makers to determine the feasibility and return-on-investment of a new aircraft engine. In this work, an alternative approach based on the probabilistic method was described for a comprehensive assessment of an aeropropulsion system. The statistical approach quantifies the design uncertainties inherent in a new aeropropulsion system and their influences on engine performance. Because of this, it enhances the reliability of a system assessment. A technical assessment of a wave-rotor-enhanced gas turbine engine was performed to demonstrate the methodology. The assessment used probability distributions to account for the uncertainties that occur in component efficiencies and flows and in mechanical design variables. The approach taken in this effort was to integrate the thermodynamic cycle analysis embedded in the computer code NEPP (NASA Engine Performance Program) and the engine weight analysis embedded in the computer code WATE (Weight Analysis of Turbine

  6. Managing the risk of uncertain threshold responses: comparison of robust, optimum, and precautionary approaches.

    PubMed

    Lempert, Robert J; Collins, Myles T

    2007-08-01

    Many commentators have suggested the need for new decision analysis approaches to better manage systems with deeply uncertain, poorly characterized risks. Most notably, policy challenges such as abrupt climate change involve potential nonlinear or threshold responses where both the triggering level and subsequent system response are poorly understood. This study uses a simple computer simulation model to compare several alternative frameworks for decision making under uncertainty -- optimal expected utility, the precautionary principle, and three different approaches to robust decision making -- for addressing the challenge of adding pollution to a lake without triggering unwanted and potentially irreversible eutrophication. The three robust decision approaches -- trading some optimal performance for less sensitivity to assumptions, satisficing over a wide range of futures, and keeping options open -- are found to identify similar strategies as the most robust choice. This study also suggests that these robust decision approaches offer a quantitative, decision analytic framework that captures the spirit of the precautionary principle while addressing some of its shortcomings. Finally, this study finds that robust strategies may be preferable to optimum strategies when the uncertainty is sufficiently deep and the set of alternative policy options is sufficiently rich. PMID:17958508

  7. Interactive approach to segment organs at risk in radiotherapy treatment planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dolz, Jose; Kirisli, Hortense A.; Viard, Romain; Massoptier, Laurent

    2014-03-01

    Accurate delineation of organs at risk (OAR) is required for radiation treatment planning (RTP). However, it is a very time consuming and tedious task. The use in clinic of image guided radiation therapy (IGRT) becomes more and more popular, thus increasing the need of (semi-)automatic methods for delineation of the OAR. In this work, an interactive segmentation approach to delineate OAR is proposed and validated. The method is based on the combination of watershed transformation, which groups small areas of similar intensities in homogeneous labels, and graph cuts approach, which uses these labels to create the graph. Segmentation information can be added in any view - axial, sagittal or coronal -, making the interaction with the algorithm easy and fast. Subsequently, this information is propagated within the whole volume, providing a spatially coherent result. Manual delineations made by experts of 6 OAR - lungs, kidneys, liver, spleen, heart and aorta - over a set of 9 computed tomography (CT) scans were used as reference standard to validate the proposed approach. With a maximum of 4 interactions, a Dice similarity coefficient (DSC) higher than 0.87 was obtained, which demonstrates that, with the proposed segmentation approach, only few interactions are required to achieve similar results as the ones obtained manually. The integration of this method in the RTP process may save a considerable amount of time, and reduce the annotation complexity.

  8. Current approaches to cyanotoxin risk assessment and risk management around the globe

    PubMed Central

    Ibelings, Bas W.; Backer, Lorraine C.; Kardinaal, W. Edwin A.; Chorus, Ingrid

    2015-01-01

    Toxic cyanobacteria became more widely recognized as a potential health hazard in the 1990s, and in 1998 the World Health Organization (WHO) first published a provisional Guideline Value of 1 μg L−1 for microcystin-LR in drinking-water. In this publication we compare risk assessment and risk management of toxic cyanobacteria in 17 countries across all five continents. We focus on the three main (oral) exposure vehicles to cyanotoxins: drinking-water, water related recreational and freshwater seafood. Most countries have implemented the provisional WHO Guideline Value, some as legally binding standard, to ensure the distribution of safe drinking-water with respect to microcystins. Regulation, however, also needs to address the possible presence of a wide range of other cyanotoxins and bioactive compounds, for which no guideline values can be derived due to insufficient toxicological data. The presence of microcystins (commonly expressed as microcystin-LR equivalents) may be used as proxy for overall guidance on risk management, but this simplification may miss certain risks, for instance from dissolved fractions of cylindrospermopsin and cyanobacterial neurotoxins. An alternative approach, often taken for risk assessment and management in recreational waters, is to regulate cyanobacterial presence – as cell numbers or biomass – rather than individual toxins. Here, many countries have implemented a two or three tier alert level system with incremental severity. These systems define the levels where responses are switched from Surveillance to Alert and finally to Action Mode and they specify the short-term actions that follow. Surface bloom formation is commonly judged to be a significant risk because of the elevated concentration of microcystins in a scum. Countries have based their derivations of legally binding standards, guideline values, maximally allowed concentrations (or limits named otherwise) on very similar scientific methodology, but underlying

  9. A risk-based approach to scheduling audits.

    PubMed

    Rönninger, Stephan; Holmes, Malcolm

    2009-01-01

    The manufacture and supply of pharmaceutical products can be a very complex operation. Companies may purchase a wide variety of materials, from active pharmaceutical ingredients to packaging materials, from "in company" suppliers or from third parties. They may also purchase or contract a number of services such as analysis, data management, audit, among others. It is very important that these materials and services are of the requisite quality in order that patient safety and company reputation are adequately protected. Such quality requirements are ongoing throughout the product life cycle. In recent years, assurance of quality has been derived via audit of the supplier or service provider and by using periodic audits, for example, annually or at least once every 5 years. In the past, companies may have used an audit only for what they considered to be "key" materials or services and used testing on receipt, for example, as their quality assurance measure for "less important" supplies. Such approaches changed as a result of pressure from both internal sources and regulators to the time-driven audit for all suppliers and service providers. Companies recognised that eventually they would be responsible for the quality of the supplied product or service and audit, although providing only a "snapshot in time" seemed a convenient way of demonstrating that they were meeting their obligations. Problems, however, still occur with the supplied product or service and will usually be more frequent from certain suppliers. Additionally, some third-party suppliers will no longer accept routine audits from individual companies, as the overall audit load can exceed one external audit per working day. Consequently a different model is needed for assessing supplier quality. This paper presents a risk-based approach to creating an audit plan and for scheduling the frequency and depth of such audits. The approach is based on the principles and process of the Quality Risk Management

  10. Novel Molecular Imaging Approaches to Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Risk Stratification.

    PubMed

    Toczek, Jakub; Meadows, Judith L; Sadeghi, Mehran M

    2016-01-01

    Selection of patients for abdominal aortic aneurysm repair is currently based on aneurysm size, growth rate, and symptoms. Molecular imaging of biological processes associated with aneurysm growth and rupture, for example, inflammation and matrix remodeling, could improve patient risk stratification and lead to a reduction in abdominal aortic aneurysm morbidity and mortality. (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography and ultrasmall superparamagnetic particles of iron oxide magnetic resonance imaging are 2 novel approaches to abdominal aortic aneurysm imaging evaluated in clinical trials. A variety of other tracers, including those that target inflammatory cells and proteolytic enzymes (eg, integrin αvβ3 and matrix metalloproteinases), have proven effective in preclinical models of abdominal aortic aneurysm and show great potential for clinical translation. PMID:26763279

  11. Promoting Healthy Outcomes Among Youth with Multiple Risks: Innovative Approaches

    PubMed Central

    Greenberg, Mark T.; Lippold, Melissa A.

    2015-01-01

    Adolescent behavior problems such as substance use, antisocial behavior problems, and mental health problems have extremely high social costs and lead to overburdened mental health and juvenile justice systems in the United States and Europe. The prevalence of these problems is substantial, and at-risk youth often present with a combination of concerns. An understanding of risk and protective factors at multiple levels, including the child, family, peer, school, and community, has influenced intervention development. At the individual and family levels, the most effective and cost-effective programs work intensively with youth and their families or use individual and group cognitive-behavioral approaches. However, there is a paucity of careful studies of effective policies and programs in the juvenile justice system. Research is needed that focuses on adoption, financing, implementation, and sustainable use of evidence-based programs in public service systems. In addition, the field needs to understand better for whom current programs are most effective to create the next generation of more effective and efficient programs. PMID:23297659

  12. Promoting healthy outcomes among youth with multiple risks: innovative approaches.

    PubMed

    Greenberg, Mark T; Lippold, Melissa A

    2013-01-01

    Adolescent behavior problems such as substance use, antisocial behavior problems, and mental health problems have extremely high social costs and lead to overburdened mental health and juvenile justice systems in the United States and Europe. The prevalence of these problems is substantial, and at-risk youth often present with a combination of concerns. An understanding of risk and protective factors at multiple levels, including the child, family, peer, school, and community, has influenced intervention development. At the individual and family levels, the most effective and cost-effective programs work intensively with youth and their families or use individual and group cognitive-behavioral approaches. However, there is a paucity of careful studies of effective policies and programs in the juvenile justice system. Research is needed that focuses on adoption, financing, implementation, and sustainable use of evidence-based programs in public service systems. In addition, the field needs to understand better for whom current programs are most effective to create the next generation of more effective and efficient programs. PMID:23297659

  13. Toward a national health risk management approach in Australia.

    PubMed

    O'Donnell, Carol

    2002-01-01

    There has been increasing international consensus about the importance of competition for achieving national growth and community well-being. The Australian government accordingly has introduced policies to promote such competition. Major legislative review and many public inquiries have assisted implementation of national competition policy and the development of national goals and standards related to international agreements to promote health and sustainable development. Since the 1980s, Australia has had legislation that requires the identification and control of health risks arising at work. The management structures necessary for coordinated delivery of national programs designed for effective identification and control of health risks arising in communities to achieve national health and development goals are still being developed, however. Major difficulties related to this development are discussed. National health development programs should be approached primarily through establishment of regional partnerships between bodies responsible for managing community health, local government, and employment placement, in consultation with other relevant organizations and the community. Related research and evaluation programs are required. PMID:11905388

  14. Review of various approaches for assessing public health risks in regulatory decision making: choosing the right approach for the problem.

    PubMed

    Dearfield, Kerry L; Hoelzer, Karin; Kause, Janell R

    2014-08-01

    Stakeholders in the public health risk analysis community can possess differing opinions about what is meant by "conduct a risk assessment." In reality, there is no one-size-fits-all risk assessment that can address all public health issues, problems, and regulatory needs. Although several international and national organizations (e.g., Codex Alimentarius Commission, Office International des Epizooties, Food and Agricultural Organization, World Health Organization, National Research Council, and European Food Safety Authority) have addressed this issue, confusion remains. The type and complexity of a risk assessment must reflect the risk management needs to appropriately inform a regulatory or nonregulatory decision, i.e., a risk assessment is ideally "fit for purpose" and directly applicable to risk management issues of concern. Frequently however, there is a lack of understanding by those not completely familiar with risk assessment regarding the specific utility of different approaches for assessing public health risks. This unfamiliarity can unduly hamper the acceptance of risk assessment results by risk managers and may reduce the usefulness of such results for guiding public health policies, practices, and operations. Differences in interpretation of risk assessment terminology further complicate effective communication among risk assessors, risk managers, and stakeholders. This article provides an overview of the types of risk assessments commonly conducted, with examples primarily from the food and agricultural sectors, and a discussion of the utility and limitations of these specific approaches for assessing public health risks. Clarification of the risk management issues and corresponding risk assessment design needs during the formative stages of the risk analysis process is a key step for ensuring that the most appropriate assessment of risk is developed and used to guide risk management decisions. PMID:25198609

  15. The risk linked to ionizing radiation: an alternative epidemiologic approach.

    PubMed Central

    de Brouwer, C; Lagasse, R

    2001-01-01

    Radioprotection norms have been based on risk models that have evolved over time. These models show relationships between exposure and observed effects. There is a high level of uncertainty regarding lower doses. Recommendations have been based on the conservative hypothesis of a linear relationship without threshold value. This relationship is still debated, and the diverse observations do not allow any definitive conclusion. Available data are contradictory, and various interpretations can be made. Here we review an alternative approach for defining causation and reconciling apparently contradictory conclusions. This alternative epidemiologic approach is based on causal groups: Each component of a causal group is necessary but not sufficient for causality. Many groups may be involved in causality. Thus, ionizing radiation may be a component of one or several causal groups. This formalization reconciles heterogeneous observations but implies searching for the interactions between components, mostly between critical components of a causal profile, and, for instance, the reasons why specific human groups would not show any effect despite exposure, when an effect would be expected. PMID:11673115

  16. Examining Relationships among Elementary Schools' Contexts, Leadership, Instructional Practices, and Added-Year Outcomes: A Regression Discontinuity Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heck, Ronald H.; Moriyama, Karen

    2010-01-01

    This study proposes and tests a multilevel structural model of school context, composition, and school leadership on school instructional practices and outcomes in elementary schools in a western state in the United States. We focus on direct and indirect relationships implied in our proposed model using an "added year of schooling" in reading and…

  17. Electrical conductivity of polyelectrolyte solutions in the presence of added salt: The role of the solvent quality factor in light of a scaling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bordi, F.; Cametti, C.; Gili, T.

    2003-07-01

    The effects of added salt on the electrical conductivity behavior of a polyelectrolyte solution are described in light of the scaling approach recently proposed by Dobrynin and Rubinstein [Macromolecules 28, 1859 (1995); 32, 915 (1999)], taking into account the influence of the solvent quality factor. The coupling between the conformation of the chain and the local charge distribution, giving rise to different conductometric behaviors, has been investigated under different conditions, in a wide concentration range of added salt. The polyion equivalent conductances λp have been evaluated in different concentration regimes for a hydrophilic polyion in good solvent condition and compared with the experimental values obtained from electrical conductivity measurements. The agreement is rather good in the wide range of concentration of the added salt investigated. In the case of poor solvent conditions, we find the appropriate expressions for the electrical conductivity when the polyion chain consists into collapsed beads alternating with stretched segments in the framework of the necklace globule model.

  18. Risk evaluation of uranium mining: A geochemical inverse modelling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rillard, J.; Zuddas, P.; Scislewski, A.

    2011-12-01

    It is well known that uranium extraction operations can increase risks linked to radiation exposure. The toxicity of uranium and associated heavy metals is the main environmental concern regarding exploitation and processing of U-ore. In areas where U mining is planned, a careful assessment of toxic and radioactive element concentrations is recommended before the start of mining activities. A background evaluation of harmful elements is important in order to prevent and/or quantify future water contamination resulting from possible migration of toxic metals coming from ore and waste water interaction. Controlled leaching experiments were carried out to investigate processes of ore and waste (leached ore) degradation, using samples from the uranium exploitation site located in Caetité-Bahia, Brazil. In experiments in which the reaction of waste with water was tested, we found that the water had low pH and high levels of sulphates and aluminium. On the other hand, in experiments in which ore was tested, the water had a chemical composition comparable to natural water found in the region of Caetité. On the basis of our experiments, we suggest that waste resulting from sulphuric acid treatment can induce acidification and salinization of surface and ground water. For this reason proper storage of waste is imperative. As a tool to evaluate the risks, a geochemical inverse modelling approach was developed to estimate the water-mineral interaction involving the presence of toxic elements. We used a method earlier described by Scislewski and Zuddas 2010 (Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 74, 6996-7007) in which the reactive surface area of mineral dissolution can be estimated. We found that the reactive surface area of rock parent minerals is not constant during time but varies according to several orders of magnitude in only two months of interaction. We propose that parent mineral heterogeneity and particularly, neogenic phase formation may explain the observed variation of the

  19. The Evidence for a Risk-Based Approach to Australian Higher Education Regulation and Quality Assurance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edwards, Fleur

    2012-01-01

    This paper explores the nascent field of risk management in higher education, which is of particular relevance in Australia currently, as the Commonwealth Government implements its plans for a risk-based approach to higher education regulation and quality assurance. The literature outlines the concept of risk management and risk-based approaches…

  20. The effect of sex on risk of mortality during the Black Death in London, A.D. 1349-1350.

    PubMed

    DeWitte, Sharon N

    2009-06-01

    The Black Death of 1347-1351 was one of the most devastating epidemics in human history, and though it is frequently assumed that the epidemic killed indiscriminately, recent research suggests that the disease was selective, at least with respect to frailty. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the Black Death was similarly selective with respect to biological sex-that is, did either sex face an elevated risk during the epidemic or were men and women at equal risk of dying? A sample of 298 victims of the Black Death, from the East Smithfield cemetery in London, is compared to a pre-Black Death normal mortality sample of 194 individuals from two Danish urban cemeteries, St Mikkel Church (Viborg) and St Albani Church (Odense). To assess the effect of sex on risk of death, sex is modeled as a covariate affecting the Gompertz-Makeham model of adult mortality. The results suggest that sex did not strongly affect risk of death in either the normal mortality or Black Death samples. These results are important for improving our understanding of Black Death mortality patterns. This is essential for understanding the effects the Black Death had on European populations, and the methods used here can potentially be informatively applied to investigations of other episodes of epidemic diseases in past populations. PMID:19140182

  1. A Biomechanical Approach to Assessing Hip Fracture Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ellman, Rachel

    2009-01-01

    Bone loss in microgravity is well documented, but it is difficult to quantify how declines in bone mineral density (BMD) contribute to an astronaut's overall risk of fracture upon return. This study uses a biomechanical approach to assessing hip fracture risk, or Factor of Risk (Phi), which is defined as the ratio of applied load to bone strength. All long-duration NASA astronauts from Expeditions 1-18 were included in this study (n=25), while crewmembers who flew twice (n=2) were treated as separate subjects. Bone strength was estimated based on an empirical relationship between areal BMD at the hip, as measured by DXA, and failure load, as determined by mechanical testing of cadaver femora. Fall load during a sideways fall was calculated from a previously developed biomechanical model, which takes into account body weight, height, gender, and soft tissue thickness overlying the lateral aspect of the hip that serves to attenuate the impact force. While no statistical analyses have been performed yet, preliminary results show that males in this population have a higher FOR than females, with a post- flight Phi of 0.87 and 0.36, respectively. FOR increases 5.1% from preflight to postflight, while only one subject crossed the fracture "threshold" of Phi = 1, for a total of 2 subjects with a postflight Phi > 1. These results suggest that men may be at greater risk for hip fracture due largely in part to their relatively thin soft tissue padding as compared to women, since soft tissue thickness has the highest correlation (R(exp 2)= .53) with FOR of all subject-specific parameters. Future work will investigate changes in FOR during recovery to see if baseline risk levels are restored upon return to 1-g activity. While dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is the most commonly used clinical measure of bone health, it fails to provide compartment-specific information that is useful in assessing changes to bone quality as a result of microgravity exposure. Peripheral

  2. An assessment of national risk: General concepts and overall approach. [carbon fiber utilization in commercial aviation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kalelkar, A. S.

    1979-01-01

    The analysis of risk presented by carbon fiber utilization in commercial aviation is reported. The discussion is presented in three parts: (1) general concepts; (2) overall approach; and (3) risk evaluation and perspective.

  3. Inclusion of bioaccumulation in environmental risk assessment: An integrated approach

    SciTech Connect

    Kloepper-Sams, P.J.; Cowan, C.E.; Larson, R.J.; Versteeg, D.J.

    1995-12-31

    Historically, the potential to bioaccumulate has been ignored in risk assessments or assessed in isolation. Bioaccumulation can be included in an integrated approach by posing two questions. (1) Is the duration of acute aquatic testing sufficient to identify effects due to direct exposure? This can be addressed by comparing T95 (time to reach 95% of steady state) with test duration. (2) Do dietary sources contribute substantially to exposure; is so, will this affect organisms higher in the food web? This can be addressed in stages. (1) A suitable QSAR can be employed to estimate the Bioconcentration Factor (BCF). Because aquatic dietary exposure to non-ionic, poorly metabolized organics is not significant for compounds with log K{sub ow} below {approximately}4.5--5, only compounds with BCF > 1,000 (log K{sub ow} {approximately}4.3) are further evaluated. (2) Predicted BCFs may be refined by measuring the predictive parameter (e.g., K{sub ow}) or the BCF. (3) If the ``parent`` BCF remains > 1,000, a food chain model is employed to derive bioaccumulation factors (BAF) which may be achieved in the food web of interest. The BAF is then combined with Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC) values to derive a PECoral or concentration available in prey. This is then compared with a Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC)oral for consumer organism(s). Mammalian toxicity databases on new and HVP existing chemicals may assist in deriving the PNECoral. (4) Further refinement of the PECoral or PNECoral may be needed. Mitigating circumstances such as metabolism and reduced bioavailability must also be considered. Such an approach may be necessary for a subset of chemicals and would be tailored dependent on chemical use, release, environmental fate -- especially persistence -- and distribution.

  4. Value Added?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    UCLA IDEA, 2012

    2012-01-01

    Value added measures (VAM) uses changes in student test scores to determine how much "value" an individual teacher has "added" to student growth during the school year. Some policymakers, school districts, and educational advocates have applauded VAM as a straightforward measure of teacher effectiveness: the better a teacher, the better students…

  5. Probabilistic Risk-Based Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment Developed

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tong, Michael T.

    2001-01-01

    In an era of shrinking development budgets and resources, where there is also an emphasis on reducing the product development cycle, the role of system assessment, performed in the early stages of an engine development program, becomes very critical to the successful development of new aeropropulsion systems. A reliable system assessment not only helps to identify the best propulsion system concept among several candidates, it can also identify which technologies are worth pursuing. This is particularly important for advanced aeropropulsion technology development programs, which require an enormous amount of resources. In the current practice of deterministic, or point-design, approaches, the uncertainties of design variables are either unaccounted for or accounted for by safety factors. This could often result in an assessment with unknown and unquantifiable reliability. Consequently, it would fail to provide additional insight into the risks associated with the new technologies, which are often needed by decisionmakers to determine the feasibility and return-on-investment of a new aircraft engine.

  6. A risk-based approach to flammable gas detector spacing.

    PubMed

    Defriend, Stephen; Dejmek, Mark; Porter, Leisa; Deshotels, Bob; Natvig, Bernt

    2008-11-15

    Flammable gas detectors allow an operating company to address leaks before they become serious, by automatically alarming and by initiating isolation and safe venting. Without effective gas detection, there is very limited defense against a flammable gas leak developing into a fire or explosion that could cause loss of life or escalate to cascading failures of nearby vessels, piping, and equipment. While it is commonly recognized that some gas detectors are needed in a process plant containing flammable gas or volatile liquids, there is usually a question of how many are needed. The areas that need protection can be determined by dispersion modeling from potential leak sites. Within the areas that must be protected, the spacing of detectors (or alternatively, number of detectors) should be based on risk. Detector design can be characterized by spacing criteria, which is convenient for design - or alternatively by number of detectors, which is convenient for cost reporting. The factors that influence the risk are site-specific, including process conditions, chemical composition, number of potential leak sites, piping design standards, arrangement of plant equipment and structures, design of isolation and depressurization systems, and frequency of detector testing. Site-specific factors such as those just mentioned affect the size of flammable gas cloud that must be detected (within a specified probability) by the gas detection system. A probability of detection must be specified that gives a design with a tolerable risk of fires and explosions. To determine the optimum spacing of detectors, it is important to consider the probability that a detector will fail at some time and be inoperative until replaced or repaired. A cost-effective approach is based on the combined risk from a representative selection of leakage scenarios, rather than a worst-case evaluation. This means that probability and severity of leak consequences must be evaluated together. In marine and

  7. Evaluating risk factor assumptions: a simulation-based approach

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Microsimulation models are an important tool for estimating the comparative effectiveness of interventions through prediction of individual-level disease outcomes for a hypothetical population. To estimate the effectiveness of interventions targeted toward high risk groups, the mechanism by which risk factors influence the natural history of disease must be specified. We propose a method for evaluating these risk factor assumptions as part of model-building. Methods We used simulation studies to examine the impact of risk factor assumptions on the relative rate (RR) of colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality for a cohort with a risk factor compared to a cohort without the risk factor using an extension of the CRC-SPIN model for colorectal cancer. We also compared the impact of changing age at initiation of screening colonoscopy for different risk mechanisms. Results Across CRC-specific risk factor mechanisms, the RR of CRC incidence and mortality decreased (towards one) with increasing age. The rate of change in RRs across age groups depended on both the risk factor mechanism and the strength of the risk factor effect. Increased non-CRC mortality attenuated the effect of CRC-specific risk factors on the RR of CRC when both were present. For each risk factor mechanism, earlier initiation of screening resulted in more life years gained, though the magnitude of life years gained varied across risk mechanisms. Conclusions Simulation studies can provide insight into both the effect of risk factor assumptions on model predictions and the type of data needed to calibrate risk factor models. PMID:21899767

  8. Towards a systems approach to risk considerations for concurrent design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila; Oberto, Robert E.

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes the new process used by the Project Design Center at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory for the identification, assessment and communication of risk elements throughout the lifecycle of a mission design. This process includes a software tool, 'RAP' that collects and communicates risk information between the various designers and a 'risk expert' who mediates this process. The establishment of this process is an attempt towards the systematic consideration of risk in the design decision making process. Using this process, we are able to better keep track of the risks associated with the design decisions. Furthermore, it helps us develop better risk profiles for the studies under consideration. We aim to refine and expand the current process to enable more thorough risk analysis capabilities in the future.

  9. Adding dexmedetomidine to ropivacaine for lumbar plexus and sciatic nerve block for amputation of lower limb in high-risk patient-a case report

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Chun-Guang; Ding, Yan-Ling; Han, Ai-Ping; Hu, Chang-Qing; Hao, Shi; Zhang, Fang-Fang; Li, Yong-Wang; Liu, Hu; Han, Zhe; Guo, De-Li; Zhang, Zhi-Qiang

    2015-01-01

    The ischemia necrosis of limb frequently requires surgery of amputation. Lumbar plexus and sciatic nerve block is an ideal intra-operative anesthetic and post-operative antalgic technique for patients of amputation, especially for high-risk patients who have severe cardio-cerebrovascular diseases. However, the duration of analgesia of peripheral nerve block is hardly sufficient to avoid the postoperative pain and the usage of opioids. In this case, a 79-year-old man, with multiple cerebral infarcts, congestive heart failure, atrial flutter and syncope, was treated with an above knee amputation because of ischemia necrosis of his left lower limb. Dexmedetomidine 1 μg/kg was added to 0.33% ropivacaine for lumbar plexus and sciatic nerve block in this case for intra-operative anesthesia and post-operative analgesia. The sensory function was blocked fully for surgery and the duration of analgesia maintained 26 hours with haemodynamic stability and moderate sedation. The patient did not complain pain and require any supplementary analgesics after surgery. This case showed that adding 1 μg/kg dexmedetomidine to ropivacaine for lumbar plexus and sciatic nerve block may be a feasible and safe technique for high-risk patients for lower limb surgery of amputation. PMID:26550393

  10. Risk assessment for enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations: a fault tree analysis approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Yajun; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.

    2013-08-01

    Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations are often characterised with large capital outlay, long implementation duration, and high risk of failure. In order to avoid ERP implementation failure and realise the benefits of the system, sound risk management is the key. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk assessment approach for ERP system implementation projects based on fault tree analysis, which models the relationship between ERP system components and specific risk factors. Unlike traditional risk management approaches that have been mostly focused on meeting project budget and schedule objectives, the proposed approach intends to address the risks that may cause ERP system usage failure. The approach can be used to identify the root causes of ERP system implementation usage failure and quantify the impact of critical component failures or critical risk events in the implementation process.

  11. Community, State, and Federal Approaches to Cumulative Risk Assessment: Challenges and Opportunities for Integration

    EPA Science Inventory

    Community, state, and federal approaches to conventional and cumulative risk assessment (CRA) were described and compared to assess similarities and differences, and develop recommendations for a consistent CRA approach, acceptable across each level as a rigorous scientific metho...

  12. A risk-based approach to robotic mission requirements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dias, William C.; Bourke, Roger D.

    1992-01-01

    A NASA Risk Team has developed a method for the application of risk management to the definition of robotic mission requirements for the Space Exploration Initiative. These requirements encompass environmental information, infrastructural emplacement in advance, and either technology testing or system/subsystems demonstration. Attention is presently given to a method for step-by-step consideration and analysis of the risk component inherent in mission architecture, followed by a calculation of the subjective risk level. Mitigation strategies are then applied with the same rules, and a comparison is made.

  13. Educational Approach to Seismic Risk Mitigation in Indian Himalayas -Hazard Map Making Workshops at High Schools-

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koketsu, K.; Oki, S.; Kimura, M.; Chadha, R. K.; Davuluri, S.

    2014-12-01

    How can we encourage people to take preventive measures against damage risks and empower them to take the right actions in emergencies to save their lives? The conventional approach taken by scientists had been disseminating intelligible information on up-to-date seismological knowledge. However, it has been proven that knowledge alone does not have enough impact to modify people's behaviors in emergencies (Oki and Nakayachi, 2012). On the other hand, the conventional approach taken by practitioners had been to conduct emergency drills at schools or workplaces. The loss of many lives from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake has proven that these emergency drills were not enough to save people's lives, unless they were empowered to assess the given situation on their own and react flexibly. Our challenge is to bridge the gap between knowledge and practice. With reference to best practices observed in Tohoku, such as The Miracles of Kamaishi, our endeavor is to design an effective Disaster Preparedness Education Program that is applicable to other disaster-prone regions in the world, even with different geological, socio-economical and cultural backgrounds. The key concepts for this new approach are 1) empowering individuals to take preventive actions to save their lives, 2) granting community-based understanding of disaster risks and 3) building a sense of reality and relevancy to disasters. With these in mind, we held workshops at some high schools in the Lesser Himalayan Region, combining lectures with an activity called "Hazard Map Making" where students proactively identify and assess the hazards around their living areas and learn practical strategies on how to manage risks. We observed the change of awareness of the students by conducting a preliminary questionnaire survey and interviews after each session. Results strongly implied that the significant change of students' attitudes towards disaster preparedness occurred not by the lectures of scientific knowledge, but

  14. The bottom-up approach to bounding potential low-dose cancer risks from formaldehyde: An update.

    PubMed

    Starr, Thomas B; Swenberg, James A

    2016-06-01

    In 2013, we proposed a novel bottom-up approach to bounding low-dose cancer risks that may result from small exogenous exposures to chemicals that are always present in the body as a result of normal biological processes. The approach utilizes the background cancer risk and the background (endogenous) concentration of a cancer-related exposure biomarker in specific target tissues. After allowing for statistical uncertainty in these two parameters, the ratio of the background risk to background exposure provides a conservative slope factor estimate that can be utilized to bound the added risk that may be associated with incremental exogenous exposures. Our original bottom-up estimates were markedly smaller than those obtained previously by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) with a conventional top-down approach to modeling nasopharyngeal cancer and leukemia mortality data from a US worker cohort. Herein we provide updated bottom-up estimates of risk for these two cancers that are smaller still, and rely upon more robust estimates of endogenous and exogenous formaldehyde-DNA adducts in monkeys and a more robust estimate of the DNA adduct elimination half-life in rats, both obtained very recently. We also re-examine the worker mortality data used by USEPA in developing its estimate of human leukemia incidence from lifetime exposure to 1 ppm airborne formaldehyde. Finally, we compare a new bottom-up slope estimate of the risk of rat nasal cancer with conventional top-down estimates obtained with empirical dose-response modeling of rat nasal cancer bioassay data. PMID:26851508

  15. A peptidomic approach to study the contribution of added casein proteins to the peptide profile in Spanish dry-fermented sausages.

    PubMed

    Mora, Leticia; Escudero, Elizabeth; Aristoy, M-Concepción; Toldrá, Fidel

    2015-11-01

    Peptidomics is a necessary alternative in the analysis of naturally generated peptides in dry-fermented processing. The intense proteolysis occurred during the processing of dry-fermented sausages is due to the action of endopeptidases and exopeptidases from both, endogenous muscle origin and lactic acid bacteria (LAB) added in the starter. Sodium caseinate is frequently used as an additive in this type of products because of its emulsifying properties, and consequently influences the protein profile available during the proteolysis. In this study, a mass spectrometry approach has been used to determine the impact of added sodium caseinate in the final peptide profile as well as to analyse its possible influence in the presence of certain previously described casein-derived bioactive peptides. PMID:26116420

  16. Identifying and Lowering Student Attrition Risk: A Counselling Interventionist Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nelson-Field, Karen; Goodman, Steven

    2011-01-01

    This study evaluates the relationship between student counselling intervention and university persistence. We find that students deemed high-risk can directly benefit from student counselling intervention thus reducing their propensity to withdraw. We find that the characteristics of students who are at greatest risk of withdrawal include both…

  17. An Adolescent Age Group Approach to Examining Youth Risk Behaviors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oman, Roy F.; McLeroy, Kenneth R.; Vesely, Sara; Aspy, Cheryl B.; Smith, David W.; Penn, David A.

    2002-01-01

    Investigated relationships among youth risk behaviors and demographic factors. Data on risk behaviors (delinquency, truancy, weapon carrying, fighting, sexuality, substance use, demographics, and family structure) were compared within specific demographic factors and by age group for diverse inner-city adolescents. Survey and interview data…

  18. Psychiatrists’ approach to vascular risk assessment in Latin America

    PubMed Central

    Richly, Pablo; López, Pablo; Gleichgerrcht, Ezequiel; Flichtentrei, Daniel; Prats, María; Mastandueno, Ricardo; Bustin, Julián; Cetkovich-Bakmas, Marcelo

    2014-01-01

    AIM: To explore the way in which Latin American psychiatrists approach the screening of vascular risk factors in patients receiving antipsychotic medication. METHODS: This was a descriptive, cross sectional study that surveyed Latin-American physicians to evaluate differences between groups divided in three main sections. The first section included demographic and professional data. The second section asked about the available medical resources: weighing scales, sphygmomanometer and measuring tape. Finally, the third section aimed at looking into the attitudes towards cardiovascular prevention. The latter was also divided into two subsections. In the first one, the questions were about weight, blood pressure and waist perimeter. In the second subsection the questions asked about the proportion of patients: (1) that suffered from overweight and/or obesity; (2) whose lipids and glycemia were controlled by the physician; (3) that were questioned by, and received information from the physician about smoking; and (4) that received recommendations from the physician to engage in regular physical activity. The participants were physicians, users of the medical website Intramed. The visitors were recruited by a banner that invited them to voluntarily access an online self-reported structured questionnaire with multiple options. RESULTS: We surveyed 1185 general physicians and 792 psychiatrists. Regarding basic medical resources, a significantly higher proportion of general physicians claimed to have weighing scales (χ2 = 404.9; P < 0.001), sphygmomanometers (χ2 = 419.3; P < 0.001), and measuring tapes (χ2 = 336.5; P < 0.001). While general physicians measured overweight and metabolic indexes in the general population in a higher proportion than in patients treated with antipsychotics (Z = -11.91; P < 0.001), psychiatrists claimed to measure them in patients medicated with antipsychotics in a higher proportion than in the general population (Z = -3.26; P < 0.001). Also

  19. Behavioral Approach System Sensitivity and Risk Taking Interact to Predict Left-Frontal EEG Asymmetry

    PubMed Central

    Black, Chelsea L.; Goldstein, Kim E.; LaBelle, Denise R.; Brown, Christopher W.; Harmon-Jones, Eddie; Abramson, Lyn Y.; Alloy, Lauren B.

    2014-01-01

    The Behavioral Approach System (BAS) hypersensitivity theory of bipolar disorder (BD; Alloy & Abramson, 2010; Depue & Iacono, 1989) suggests that hyperreactivity in the BAS results in the extreme fluctuations of mood characteristic of BD. In addition to risk conferred by BAS hypersensitivity, cognitive and personality variables may play a role in determining risk. We evaluated relationships among BAS sensitivity, risk taking, and an electrophysiological correlate of approach motivation, relative left-frontal electroencephalography (EEG) asymmetry. BAS sensitivity moderated the relationship between risk taking and EEG asymmetry. More specifically, individuals who were high in BAS sensitivity showed left-frontal EEG asymmetry regardless of their level of risk-taking behavior. However, among individuals who were moderate in BAS sensitivity, risk taking was positively associated with asymmetry. These findings suggest that cognitive and personality correlates of bipolar risk may evidence unique contributions to a neural measure of trait-approach motivation. Clinical implications of these findings are discussed. PMID:25022775

  20. Behavioral approach system sensitivity and risk taking interact to predict left-frontal EEG asymmetry.

    PubMed

    Black, Chelsea L; Goldstein, Kim E; LaBelle, Denise R; Brown, Christopher W; Harmon-Jones, Eddie; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

    2014-09-01

    The Behavioral Approach System (BAS) hypersensitivity theory of bipolar disorder (BD; Alloy & Abramson, 2010; Depue & Iacono, 1989) suggests that hyperreactivity in the BAS results in the extreme fluctuations of mood characteristic of BD. In addition to risk conferred by BAS hypersensitivity, cognitive and personality variables may play a role in determining risk. We evaluated relationships among BAS sensitivity, risk taking, and an electrophysiological correlate of approach motivation, relative left-frontal electroencephalography (EEG) asymmetry. BAS sensitivity moderated the relationship between risk taking and EEG asymmetry. More specifically, individuals who were high in BAS sensitivity showed left-frontal EEG asymmetry regardless of their level of risk-taking behavior. However, among individuals who were moderate in BAS sensitivity, risk taking was positively associated with asymmetry. These findings suggest that cognitive and personality correlates of bipolar risk may evidence unique contributions to a neural measure of trait-approach motivation. Clinical implications of these findings are discussed. PMID:25022775

  1. Adding Value to Education for Sustainability in Africa with Inquiry-Based Approaches in Open and Distance Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pretorius, Rudi; Lombard, Andrea; Khotoo, Anisa

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Inquiry-based approaches can potentially enrich sustainability learning in any educational context, more so in open and distance learning (ODL--perceived as theoretically inclined) and in regions of educational need (such as the Global South, of which Africa forms part). The purpose of this paper is to map the benefits and challenges of…

  2. A Bayesian Approach to Identifying New Risk Factors for Dementia

    PubMed Central

    Wen, Yen-Hsia; Wu, Shihn-Sheng; Lin, Chun-Hung Richard; Tsai, Jui-Hsiu; Yang, Pinchen; Chang, Yang-Pei; Tseng, Kuan-Hua

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Dementia is one of the most disabling and burdensome health conditions worldwide. In this study, we identified new potential risk factors for dementia from nationwide longitudinal population-based data by using Bayesian statistics. We first tested the consistency of the results obtained using Bayesian statistics with those obtained using classical frequentist probability for 4 recognized risk factors for dementia, namely severe head injury, depression, diabetes mellitus, and vascular diseases. Then, we used Bayesian statistics to verify 2 new potential risk factors for dementia, namely hearing loss and senile cataract, determined from the Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. We included a total of 6546 (6.0%) patients diagnosed with dementia. We observed older age, female sex, and lower income as independent risk factors for dementia. Moreover, we verified the 4 recognized risk factors for dementia in the older Taiwanese population; their odds ratios (ORs) ranged from 3.469 to 1.207. Furthermore, we observed that hearing loss (OR = 1.577) and senile cataract (OR = 1.549) were associated with an increased risk of dementia. We found that the results obtained using Bayesian statistics for assessing risk factors for dementia, such as head injury, depression, DM, and vascular diseases, were consistent with those obtained using classical frequentist probability. Moreover, hearing loss and senile cataract were found to be potential risk factors for dementia in the older Taiwanese population. Bayesian statistics could help clinicians explore other potential risk factors for dementia and for developing appropriate treatment strategies for these patients. PMID:27227925

  3. Chemical Mixture Risk Assessment Additivity-Based Approaches

    EPA Science Inventory

    Powerpoint presentation includes additivity-based chemical mixture risk assessment methods. Basic concepts, theory and example calculations are included. Several slides discuss the use of "common adverse outcomes" in analyzing phthalate mixtures.

  4. HACCP-based quality risk management approach to udder health problems on dairy farms.

    PubMed

    Noordhuizen, Jptm; Cannas da Silva, J

    2009-01-01

    Against the background of prevailing udder health problems on dairy farms, this paper discusses a new approach to mastitis control. Current udder health control programmes, such as the 'five-point plan', are highlighted and their drawbacks indicated. The concept and principles of hazard analysis critical control points (HACCP) are introduced. The eight core elements of this concept are dealt with by using the example of a dairy herd with a mastitis problem due to Staphylococcus aureus. The various steps to be taken in the development of a HACCP-based quality risk management programme are illustrated through the application of core elements. Finally, it is shown that the HACCP key words, structure, organisation, planning, communication and formalisation; which do not frequently appear in conventional herd health and production management programmes can contribute to better udder health. The role of the veterinarian can be paramount and of added value, if he/she is willing to invest in new knowledge and skills, such as the HACCP concept, farm economics, animal nutrition, and particularly the role of coach to the dairy farmer in the implementation of preventative measures in relation to udder health. PMID:22082372

  5. Adding Value.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Orsini, Larry L.; Hudack, Lawrence R.; Zekan, Donald L.

    1999-01-01

    The value-added statement (VAS), relatively unknown in the United States, is used in financial reports by many European companies. Saint Bonaventure University (New York) has adapted a VAS to make it appropriate for not-for-profit universities by identifying stakeholder groups (students, faculty, administrators/support personnel, creditors, the…

  6. Total Risk Approach in Applying PRA to Criticality Safety

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, S T

    2005-03-24

    As nuclear industry continues marching from an expert-base support to more procedure-base support, it is important to revisit the total risk concept to criticality safety. A key objective of criticality safety is to minimize total criticality accident risk. The purpose of this paper is to assess key constituents of total risk concept pertaining to criticality safety from an operations support perspective and to suggest a risk-informed means of utilizing criticality safety resources for minimizing total risk. A PRA methodology was used to assist this assessment. The criticality accident history was assessed to provide a framework for our evaluation. In supporting operations, the work of criticality safety engineers ranges from knowing the scope and configurations of a proposed operation, performing criticality hazards assessment to derive effective controls, assisting in training operators, response to floor questions, surveillance to ensure implementation of criticality controls, and response to criticality mishaps. In a compliance environment, the resource of criticality safety engineers is increasingly being directed towards tedious documentation effort to meet some regulatory requirements to the effect of weakening the floor support for criticality safety. By applying a fault tree model to identify the major contributors of criticality accidents, a total risk picture is obtained to address relative merits of various actions. Overall, human failure is the key culprit in causing criticality accidents. Factors such as failure to follow procedures, lacks of training, lack of expert support at the floor level etc. are main contributors. Other causes may include lack of effective criticality controls such as inadequate criticality safety evaluation. Not all of the causes are equally important in contributing to criticality mishaps. Applying the limited resources to strengthen the weak links would reduce risk more than continuing emphasis on the strong links of

  7. Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

    SciTech Connect

    Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

    2006-03-01

    For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

  8. Approaches towards training in human risk management of surgical technology.

    PubMed

    Geissler, Norman; Machno, Andrej; Sánchez-Peralta, Luisa F; Pagador, José Blas; Sánchez-Margallo, Francisco M; Korb, Werner

    2016-04-01

    A safe application of modern surgical technology and computer-assisted surgery devices is based on an operation by adequately trained surgeons who are familiar with the benefits and limitations of the devices. We analyzed the in-depth interviews with seven Spanish and 10 German surgeons. Together with other studies, this analysis highlights the need for specific training in technological competence for surgeons. One way to train technological competence is to help surgeons understanding the basic principles of medical devices as well as explaining the basic concepts of risk analysis and risk management. Based on this premise, a stage model for risk assessment was developed and adapted for the training of surgeons. This was developed further into a train the trainer (TTT) concept, which was then evaluated for two example cases. During TTT-training, the trainers (expert surgeons) performed a risk analysis for several medical devices. Afterwards, the trainers organized a surgical workshop for surgical trainees (resident surgeons), in which high-fidelity simulators and the original medical devices were used. The results showed that the surgeons performed the risk analysis correctly with the stage model and afterwards were able to successfully apply the results in the workshop context. PMID:27096765

  9. An office-based approach to emotional and behavioral risk factor reduction for cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Hochman, Daniel M; Feinstein, Robert E; Stauter, Erinn C

    2013-01-01

    There are many psychological risk factors for cardiovascular disease, and the ability to reduce mortality depends on an ability to integrate care of these risk factors with traditional Framingham cardiovascular risk and use them both in routine practice. The aim of this article is to provide an update of all the major emotional and behavioral cardiovascular risk factors along with a practical treatment model for implementation. First, we provide a review of major emotional and behavioral cardiovascular risk factors, the associated primary effect, and proposed mechanism of action. Second, we provide an office-based approach to cardiovascular risk factor reduction and methods of reducing barriers to implementation, called Prevention Oriented Primary Care-Abridged. The approach integrates several forms of detection, assessment using the 3As (ask, assess, assist), and Stages of Change approaches, and subsequent efficient and targeted treatment with either Motivational Interviewing or further office intervention. A case example is provided to help illustrate this process. PMID:23535528

  10. A new multicriteria risk mapping approach based on a multiattribute frontier concept.

    PubMed

    Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H; Ben-Haim, Yakov; Downing, Marla; Sapio, Frank; Siltanen, Marty

    2013-09-01

    Invasive species risk maps provide broad guidance on where to allocate resources for pest monitoring and regulation, but they often present individual risk components (such as climatic suitability, host abundance, or introduction potential) as independent entities. These independent risk components are integrated using various multicriteria analysis techniques that typically require prior knowledge of the risk components' importance. Such information is often nonexistent for many invasive pests. This study proposes a new approach for building integrated risk maps using the principle of a multiattribute efficient frontier and analyzing the partial order of elements of a risk map as distributed in multidimensional criteria space. The integrated risks are estimated as subsequent multiattribute frontiers in dimensions of individual risk criteria. We demonstrate the approach with the example of Agrilus biguttatus Fabricius, a high-risk pest that may threaten North American oak forests in the near future. Drawing on U.S. and Canadian data, we compare the performance of the multiattribute ranking against a multicriteria linear weighted averaging technique in the presence of uncertainties, using the concept of robustness from info-gap decision theory. The results show major geographic hotspots where the consideration of tradeoffs between multiple risk components changes integrated risk rankings. Both methods delineate similar geographical regions of high and low risks. Overall, aggregation based on a delineation of multiattribute efficient frontiers can be a useful tool to prioritize risks for anticipated invasive pests, which usually have an extremely poor prior knowledge base. PMID:23339716

  11. Overview of groundwater management approaches at salinisation risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polemio, Maurizio; Emanuela Zuffianò, Livia

    2013-04-01

    All natural waters contain dissolved minerals from interactions with atmospheric and soil gases, mixing with other solutions, and/or interactions with the biosphere and lithosphere. In many cases, these processes result in natural waters containing solute or salinity above concentrations recommended for a specified use, which creates significant social and economic problems. Groundwater salinisation can be caused by natural phenomena and anthropogenic activities. For the former case, we can distinguish terrestrial and marine phenomena. Approximately 16% of the total area of continental earth is potentially involved in groundwater salinisation. Seawater intrusion can be considered to be the primary phenomenon to be studied in terms of groundwater salinisation. Three schematic approaches to the protection of groundwater via salinisation mitigation and/or groundwater salinity improvement are described based on the classifications of the primary salinisation sources and focusing on the effect of seawater intrusion. The complexity of these approaches generally increases due to difficulties caused by groundwater quality and quantity degradation and increased demand for quality water. In order from the lowest to the highest complexity, these approaches are the engineering approach, the discharge management approach, and the water and land management approach. The engineering approach is realised on the local or detailed scale with the purpose of controlling the salinisation, optimising the well discharge with specific technical solutions and/or completing works to improve the quality and/or quantity of the discharged fresh groundwater. The discharge management approach encompasses at least an entire coastal aquifer and defines rules concerning groundwater utilisation and well discharge. The water and land management approach should be applied on the regional scale. Briefly, this approach becomes necessary when one or more need creates an overall framework of high

  12. Approaches to characterizing human health risks of exposure to fibers.

    PubMed Central

    Vu, V T; Lai, D Y

    1997-01-01

    Naturally occurring and man-made (synthetic) fibers of respirable sizes are substances that have been identified by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) as priority substances for risk reduction and pollution prevention under the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA). The health concern for respirable fibers is based on the link of occupational asbestos exposure and environmental erionite fiber exposure to the development of chronic respiratory diseases, including interstitial lung fibrosis, lung cancer, and mesothelioma in humans. There is also considerable laboratory evidence indicating that a variety of fibers of varying physical and chemical characteristics can elicit fibrogenic and carcinogenic effects in animals under certain exposure conditions. This paper discusses key scientific issues and major default assumptions and uncertainties pertaining to the risk assessment of inhaled fibers. This is followed by a description of the types of assessment performed by the U.S. EPA to support risk management actions of new fibers and existing fibers under TSCA. The scope and depth of these risk assessments, however, vary greatly depending on whether the substance under review is an existing or a new fiber, the purpose of the assessment, the availability of data, time, and resources, and the intended nature of regulatory action. In general, these risk assessments are of considerable uncertainty because health hazard and human exposure information is often incomplete for most fibers. Furthermore, how fibers cause diseases and what specific determinants are critical to fiber-induced toxicity and carcinogenicity are still not completely understood. Further research to improve our knowledge base in fiber toxicology and additional toxicity and exposure data gathering are needed to more accurately characterize the health risks of inhaled fibers. PMID:9400747

  13. Review of Qualitative Approaches for the Construction Industry: Designing a Risk Management Toolbox

    PubMed Central

    Spee, Ton; Gillen, Matt; Lentz, Thomas J.; Garrod, Andrew; Evans, Paul; Swuste, Paul

    2011-01-01

    Objectives This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social Security Association says, "whereas progress has been made in safety and health, the construction industry is still a high risk sector." Methods Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ about 80% of the world's construction workers. In recent years a strategy for qualitative occupational risk management, known as Control Banding (CB) has gained international attention as a simplified approach for reducing work-related risks. CB groups hazards into stratified risk 'bands', identifying commensurate controls to reduce the level of risk and promote worker health and safety. We review these qualitative solutions-based approaches and identify strengths and weaknesses toward designing a simplified CB 'toolbox' approach for use by SMEs in construction trades. Results This toolbox design proposal includes international input on multidisciplinary approaches for performing a qualitative risk assessment determining a risk 'band' for a given project. Risk bands are used to identify the appropriate level of training to oversee construction work, leading to commensurate and appropriate control methods to perform the work safely. Conclusion The Construction Toolbox presents a review-generated format to harness multiple solutions-based national programs and publications for controlling construction-related risks with simplified approaches across the occupational safety, health and hygiene professions. PMID:22953194

  14. Approaches to risk assessment of automotive engine exhausts.

    PubMed

    Törnqvist, M; Ehrenberg, L

    1990-01-01

    Contributions of alkenes to cancer risk from urban air pollution were estimated on the basis of radiation dose equivalent of target dose. The latter was inferred from the incremental carboxyhaemoglobin (COHb) level in urban areas, the ratio of epoxide-haemoglobin adducts to COHb levels in smokers and the alkenes/CO level ratios in cigarette smoke and urban air. This model predicts some 200 and 5 cancer cases annually in Sweden from ethene and propene, respectively. This indicates that the risk from alkenes is of the same order of magnitude as that from the particulate fraction of the pollution. PMID:1699889

  15. Process waste assessment approach, training and technical assistance for DOE contractors; FY93 report, ADS {number_sign}35303C

    SciTech Connect

    Pemberton, S

    1994-03-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) and its contractors are faced with a large waste management problem as are other industries. One of the tools used in a successful waste minimization pollution prevention (WMin/P2) program is a process waste assessment (PWA). The purpose of this project was to share the Kansas City Plant`s (KCP`s) PWA expertise with other DOE personnel and DOE contractors. This consisted of two major activities: (1) The KCP`s PWA graded approach methodology was modified with the assistance of DOE/Defense Program`s laboratories, and (2) PWA training and technical assistance were provided to interested DOE personnel and DOE contractors. This report documents the FY93 efforts, lesson learned, and future plans for both PWA-related activities.

  16. Replaced gastroduodenal artery: Added benefit of the “artery first” approach during pancreaticoduodenectomy—A case report

    PubMed Central

    Younan, George; Chimukangara, Munyaradzi; Tsai, Susan; Evans, Douglas B.; Christians, Kathleen K.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Variations in hepatic arterial anatomy are frequently encountered in pancreas and liver surgery. These aberrancies add technical complexity to the procedure and can result in significant patient morbidity if these vascular nuances are not recognized. Presentation of case We report a case whereby a superior mesenteric artery first approach was used to locate and preserve an aberrant left hepatic artery arising from a replaced gastroduodenal artery emanating from the SMA during pancreaticoduodenectomy. The procedure was done for resection of a large duodenal adenoma. Discussion High-quality preoperative imaging and mastery in surgical expertise are requirements for identification and preservation of aberrant hepatic arterial anatomy during procedures involving vital intra-abdominal organs. Conclusion Our aim is to provide awareness of rare vascular anomalies encountered during pancreaticoduodenectomy and provide a unique method for successful management. PMID:27124718

  17. AN APPROACH FOR CHARACTERIZING TROPOSPHERIC OZONE RISK TO FOREST

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk tropospheric ozone poses to forests in the United States is dependent on the variation in ozone exposure across the distribution of the forests in question and the various environmental and climate factors predominant in the region. All these factors have a spatial natur...

  18. A REGIONAL APPROACH TO ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENTS FOR PESTICIDE REGISTRATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Currently, most ecological risk assessments for EPA pesticide registration are evaluated at the national scale using a predetermined list of test species (OPPTS 850.4225 and 8504250) as a model system with little regard to where and how the product will ultimately be used. The a...

  19. Adolescent Sexual Activity: An Ecological, Risk-Factor Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Small, Stephen A.; Luster, Tom

    1994-01-01

    Examined relationship between adolescent sexual intercourse and history of physical abuse, neighborhood monitoring, and adolescent's attachment to school. Findings from 2,108 adolescents suggest that there are many significant risk factors related to whether adolescents are sexually experienced and that importance of some factors vary by gender.…

  20. Teen Risk-Taking: Promising Prevention Programs and Approaches.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eisen, Marvin; Pallitto, Christina; Bradner, Carolyn; Bolshun, Natalya

    This guidebook explores some of the practical issues associated with finding, choosing, and starting potentially effective prevention programs for at-risk preteens and teens. The guidebook is based on a study of 51 intervention programs that identified elements and delivery mechanisms that were associated with their effectiveness. A closer look at…

  1. A REGIONAL APPROACH TO ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENTS FOR PRODUCT REGISTRATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Currently, most ecological risk assessments for EPA registration are evaluated at the national scale using a predetermined list of species with little regard to where the product will ultimately be used. The assumption is that the test species presently used are representative a...

  2. A risk-based approach to cleanup: Problems and pitfalls

    SciTech Connect

    Anspaugh, L.

    1995-10-01

    This paper details information dealing with the meetings of the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU). Topics discussed include: Radtest program to summarize all data on radiation doses resulting from nuclear weapons testing; current status of US cleanup strategies; development of new milestones for the project due to reduced budgets; health hazards; and risk reduction.

  3. College Alcohol Risk Assessment Guide: Environmental Approaches to Prevention

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ryan, Barbara E.; Colthurst, Tom; Segars, Lance

    2009-01-01

    This guide is designed to help individuals identify and modify risks that contribute to alcohol-related problems within college and university communities. Despite general agreement among campus officials and students alike that alcohol use contributes to a range of problems confronting colleges and universities, prevention often does not command…

  4. DIS in AdS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Albacete, Javier L.; Kovchegov, Yuri V.; Taliotis, Anastasios

    2009-03-01

    We calculate the total cross section for the scattering of a quark-anti-quark dipole on a large nucleus at high energy for a strongly coupled N = 4 super Yang-Mills theory using AdS/CFT correspondence. We model the nucleus by a metric of a shock wave in AdS5. We then calculate the expectation value of the Wilson loop (the dipole) by finding the extrema of the Nambu-Goto action for an open string attached to the quark and antiquark lines of the loop in the background of an AdS5 shock wave. We find two physically meaningful extremal string configurations. For both solutions we obtain the forward scattering amplitude N for the quark dipole-nucleus scattering. We study the onset of unitarity with increasing center-of-mass energy and transverse size of the dipole: we observe that for both solutions the saturation scale Qs is independent of energy/Bjorken-x and depends on the atomic number of the nucleus as Qs˜A1/3. Finally we observe that while one of the solutions we found corresponds to the pomeron intercept of αP = 2 found earlier in the literature, when extended to higher energy or larger dipole sizes it violates the black disk limit. The other solution we found respects the black disk limit and yields the pomeron intercept of αP = 1.5. We thus conjecture that the right pomeron intercept in gauge theories at strong coupling may be αP = 1.5.

  5. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA): A Practical and Cost Effective Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Lydia L.; Ingegneri, Antonino J.; Djam, Melody

    2006-01-01

    The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) is the first mission of the Robotic Lunar Exploration Program (RLEP), a space exploration venture to the Moon, Mars and beyond. The LRO mission includes spacecraft developed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and seven instruments built by GSFC, Russia, and contractors across the nation. LRO is defined as a measurement mission, not a science mission. It emphasizes the overall objectives of obtaining data to facilitate returning mankind safely to the Moon in preparation for an eventual manned mission to Mars. As the first mission in response to the President's commitment of the journey of exploring the solar system and beyond: returning to the Moon in the next decade, then venturing further into the solar system, ultimately sending humans to Mars and beyond, LRO has high-visibility to the public but limited resources and a tight schedule. This paper demonstrates how NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Mission project office incorporated reliability analyses in assessing risks and performing design tradeoffs to ensure mission success. Risk assessment is performed using NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) 8705.5 - Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects to formulate probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). As required, a limited scope PRA is being performed for the LRO project. The PRA is used to optimize the mission design within mandated budget, manpower, and schedule constraints. The technique that LRO project office uses to perform PRA relies on the application of a component failure database to quantify the potential mission success risks. To ensure mission success in an efficient manner, low cost and tight schedule, the traditional reliability analyses, such as reliability predictions, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), are used to perform PRA for the large system of LRO with more than 14,000 piece parts and over 120 purchased or contractor

  6. NASA's Approach to Critical Risks for Extended Human Space Flight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shelhamer, Mark

    2014-01-01

    Planetary Robotic and Human Spaceflight Exploration Humans are exposed to a great variety of hazards in the space environment. These include the effects of weightlessness, radiation, isolation and confinement, altered day-night cycles, and others. These inherent hazards have both physiological and behavioral consequences. The adaptive capabilities of humans in these situations is remarkable, and often exceed our expectations. However, the demanding environment and challenging operational pace can push some of these adaptive processes to their limits. The NASA Human Research Program (HRP) is tasked with mitigating the most serious of these effects on human health, safety, and performance, in long-duration space flight. This can involve the development and deployment of physiological countermeasures, better understanding of the physiological alterations and avoidance of exacerbating situations, inputs to the design of future spacecraft to minimize risks, and in some cases the awareness that some level of risk might have to be accepted based on the resulting consequences and their likelihood. HRP has identified a few areas that are of special concern due to their severity, lack of understanding of underlying causes, or potential for negative impact on health or performance. Some of these areas are visual impairment possibly due to increased intracranial pressure, behavioral and performance problems due to sleep deficits and isolation, and acute and chronic effects of radiation. These problems can, if not addressed, be expected to increase on longer and more distant missions. The evidence from spaceflight, laboratory, and analog studies that supports the selection of the most critical risks will be discussed. Current and planned research programs that address these risks, and their anticipated outcomes, will also be described.

  7. Evaluating changes in driver behaviour: a risk profiling approach.

    PubMed

    Ellison, Adrian B; Bliemer, Michiel C J; Greaves, Stephen P

    2015-02-01

    New road safety strategies continue to be devised by researchers and policy makers with pay-as-you-drive (PAYD) schemes gaining increasing attention. However, empirically measuring the effectiveness of these strategies is challenging due to the influence of the road environment and other factors external to the driver. The analysis presented here applies Temporal and Spatial Identifiers to control for the road environment and Driver Behaviour Profiles to provide a common measure of driving behaviour based on the risk of a casualty crash for assessing the effectiveness of a PAYD scheme on reducing driving risks. The results show that in many cases personalised feedback alone is sufficient to induce significant changes, but the largest reductions in risk are observed when drivers are also awarded a financial incentive to change behaviour. Importantly, the more frequent the exposure to the speeding information, the greater the magnitude of the change. However, the changes are disproportionately associated with those that were already safer drivers in the baseline period suggesting that some drivers may be predisposed to changing their behaviour. These results suggest that it would be beneficial to provide real-time or daily feedback on speeding behaviour in conjunction with a financial reward scheme, potentially as a component of insurance premiums. PMID:25543101

  8. The added value of a water footprint approach: Micro- and macroeconomic analysis of cotton production, processing and export in water bound Uzbekistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rudenko, I.; Bekchanov, M.; Djanibekov, U.; Lamers, J. P. A.

    2013-11-01

    Since independence from the former Soviet Union in 1991, Uzbekistan is challenged to consolidate its efforts and identify and introduce suitable agricultural policies to ease the threat of advancing land, water and ecosystem deterioration. On the one hand, irrigated cotton production provides income, food and energy sources for a large part of the rural households, which accounts for about 70% of the total population. On the other hand, this sector is considered a major driver of the on-going environmental degradation. Due to this dual nature, an integrated approach is needed that allows the analyses of the cotton sector at different stages and, consequently, deriving comprehensive options for action. The findings of the economic based value chain analysis and ecologically-oriented water footprint analysis on regional level were complemented with the findings of an input-output model on national level. This combination gave an added value for better-informed decision-making to reach land, water and ecosystem sustainability, compared to the individual results of each approach. The synergy of approaches pointed at various options for actions, such as to (i) promote the shift of water use from the high water consuming agricultural sector to a less water consuming cotton processing sector, (ii) increase overall water use efficiency by expanding the highly water productive industrial sectors and concurrently decreasing sectors with inefficient water use, and (iii) reduce agricultural water use by improving irrigation and conveyance efficiencies. The findings showed that increasing water use efficiency, manufacturing products with higher value added and raising water users' awareness of the real value of water are essential for providing water security in Uzbekistan.

  9. A Bayesian Approach for Investigating the Risk of QT Prolongation

    PubMed Central

    Anand, Suraj P.; Ghosh, Sujit K.

    2009-01-01

    The standard approach to investigating a drug for its potential for QT prolongation is to construct a 90% two-sided (or a 95% one-sided) confidence interval (CI), for the difference in baseline corrected mean QTc (heart-rate corrected version of QT) between drug and placebo at each time-point, and to conclude non-inferiority if the upper limit for each CI is less than a pre-specified constant. An alternative approach is to base the non-inferiority inference on the largest difference in population mean QTc (baseline corrected) between drug and placebo. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach to resolving this problem using a Monte Carlo simulation method. We use simulated data to assess the performance of the proposed approach, discuss its advantages over the standard approach, and illustrate the method by applying it to a real data set obtained from a thorough QT study conducted at GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). PMID:21857840

  10. An Approach to Risk-Based Design Incorporating Damage Tolerance Analyses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Glaessgen, Edward H.; Sleight, David W.

    2002-01-01

    Incorporating risk-based design as an integral part of spacecraft development is becoming more and more common. Assessment of uncertainties associated with design parameters and environmental aspects such as loading provides increased knowledge of the design and its performance. Results of such studies can contribute to mitigating risk through a system-level assessment. Understanding the risk of an event occurring, the probability of its occurrence, and the consequences of its occurrence can lead to robust, reliable designs. This paper describes an approach to risk-based structural design incorporating damage-tolerance analysis. The application of this approach to a candidate Earth-entry vehicle is described. The emphasis of the paper is on describing an approach for establishing damage-tolerant structural response inputs to a system-level probabilistic risk assessment.

  11. Approach on environmental risk assessment of nanosilver released from textiles

    SciTech Connect

    Voelker, Doris; Schlich, Karsten; Hohndorf, Lars; Koch, Wolfgang; Kuehnen, Ute; Polleichtner, Christian; Kussatz, Carola; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

    2015-07-15

    Based on the increased utilization of nanosilver (silver nanomaterials=AgNM) as antibacterial agent, there is the strong need to assess the potential environmental implication associated with its new application areas. In this study an exemplary environmental risk assessment (ERA) of AgNM applied in textiles was performed. Environmental exposure scenarios (via municipal sewage treatment plant (STP)) with wastewater supply from domestic homes) were developed for three different types of textiles equipped with AgNM. Based on these scenarios predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) were deduced for STPs and for the environmental compartments surface water, sediment as well as soil. These PECs were related to PNECs (predicted no effect concentrations). PNECs were deduced from results of ecotoxicity tests of a selected AgNM (NM-300K). Data on ecotoxicology were derived from various tests with activated sludge, cyanobacteria, algae, daphnids, fish, duckweed, macrophytes, chironomids, earthworms, terrestrial plants as well as soil microorganisms. Emission data for the AgNM NM-300K from textiles were derived from washing experiments. The performed ERA was based on the specifications defined in the ECHA Guidances on information requirements and chemical safety assessment. Based on the chosen scenarios and preconditions, no environmental risk of the AgNM NM-300K released from textiles was detected. Under conservative assumptions a risk quotient for surface water close to 1 indicated that the aquatic compartment may be affected by an increased emission of AgNM to the environment due to the high sensitivity of aquatic organisms to silver. Based on the successful retention of AgNM in the sewage sludge and the still ongoing continual application of sewage sludge on farmland it is recommended to introduce a threshold for total silver content in sewage sludge into the respective regulations. Regarding potential risk mitigation measures, it is emphasized to preferably directly

  12. The role of society in engineering risk analysis: a capabilities-based approach.

    PubMed

    Murphy, Colleen; Gardoni, Paolo

    2006-08-01

    This article proposes a new conceptual framework in engineering risk analysis to account for the net impact of hazards on individuals in a society. It analyzes four limitations of prevailing approaches to risk analysis and suggests a way to overcome them. These limitations are a result of how societal impacts are characteristically accounted for and valued. Prevailing approaches typically focus too narrowly on the consequences of natural or man-made hazards, not accounting for the broader societal impacts of such hazards. Such approaches lack a uniform and consistent metric for accounting for the impact of the nonquantifiable consequences (like psychological trauma or societal impacts) and rely upon implicit and potentially inaccurate value judgments when evaluating risks. To overcome these limitations, we propose an alternative, Capabilities-Based Approach to the treatment of society in risk analysis. A similar approach is currently used by the United Nations to quantitatively measure the degree of development in countries around the world. In a Capabilities-Based Approach, the potential benefits and losses due to a hazard are measured and compared in a uniform way by using individual capabilities (functionings individuals are able, still able, or unable to achieve) as a metric. This Capabilities-Based Approach provides a foundation for identifying and quantifying the broader, complex societal consequences of hazards and is based on explicit, value judgments. The Capabilities-Based Approach can accommodate different methods or techniques for risk determination and for risk evaluation and can be used in assessing risk in diverse types of hazards (natural or man-made) and different magnitudes that range from minor to catastrophic. In addition, implementing a Capabilities-Based Approach contributes to the development of a single standard for public policy decision making, since a Capabilities-Based Approach is already in use in development economics and policy. PMID

  13. Approaches and Sources of Uncertainty in Mixtures and Cumulative Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Approaches and Sources of Uncertainty in Mixtures and Cumulative Risk Assessment JC Lipscomb U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA Humans and environmental species are rarel...

  14. 77 FR 52977 - Regulatory Capital Rules: Advanced Approaches Risk-Based Capital Rule; Market Risk Capital Rule

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-08-30

    ...The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Board), and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) (collectively, the agencies) are seeking comment on three notices of proposed rulemaking (NPRs) that would revise and replace the agencies' current capital rules. In this NPR (Advanced Approaches and Market Risk NPR) the......

  15. From Physical Process to Economic Cost - Integrated Approaches of Landslide Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klose, M.; Damm, B.

    2014-12-01

    The nature of landslides is complex in many respects, with landslide hazard and impact being dependent on a variety of factors. This obviously requires an integrated assessment for fundamental understanding of landslide risk. Integrated risk assessment, according to the approach presented in this contribution, implies combining prediction of future landslide occurrence with analysis of landslide impact in the past. A critical step for assessing landslide risk in integrated perspective is to analyze what types of landslide damage affected people and property in which way and how people contributed and responded to these damage types. In integrated risk assessment, the focus is on systematic identification and monetization of landslide damage, and analytical tools that allow deriving economic costs from physical landslide processes are at the heart of this approach. The broad spectrum of landslide types and process mechanisms as well as nonlinearity between landslide magnitude, damage intensity, and direct costs are some main factors explaining recent challenges in risk assessment. The two prevailing approaches for assessing the impact of landslides in economic terms are cost survey (ex-post) and risk analysis (ex-ante). Both approaches are able to complement each other, but yet a combination of them has not been realized so far. It is common practice today to derive landslide risk without considering landslide process-based cause-effect relationships, since integrated concepts or new modeling tools expanding conventional methods are still widely missing. The approach introduced in this contribution is based on a systematic framework that combines cost survey and GIS-based tools for hazard or cost modeling with methods to assess interactions between land use practices and landslides in historical perspective. Fundamental understanding of landslide risk also requires knowledge about the economic and fiscal relevance of landslide losses, wherefore analysis of their

  16. A multidisciplinary approach to therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient

    PubMed Central

    Grant, Cynthia L; Lusk, Jaimie L

    2015-01-01

    As health care trends toward a system of care approach, providers from various disciplines strive to collaborate to provide optimal care for their patients. While a multidisciplinary approach to suicide risk assessment and management has been identified as important for reducing suicidality, standardized clinical guidelines for such an approach do not yet exist. In this article, the authors propose the adoption of the therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient (TRMSP) to improve suicide risk assessment and management within multidisciplinary systems of care. The TRMSP, which has been fully articulated in previous articles, involves augmenting clinical risk assessment with structured instruments, stratifying risk in terms of both severity and temporality, and developing and documenting a safety plan. Augmenting clinical risk assessments with reliable and valid structured instruments serves several functions, including ensuring important aspects of suicide are addressed, establishing a baseline for suicidal thoughts and behaviors, facilitating interprofessional communication, and mitigating risk. Similarly, a two-dimensional risk stratification qualifying suicide risk in terms of both severity and temporality can enhance communication across providers and settings and improve understanding of acute crises in the context of chronic risk. Finally, safety planning interventions allow providers and patients to collaboratively create a personally meaningful plan for managing a suicidal crisis that can be continually modified across time with multiple providers in different care settings. In a busy care environment, the TRMSP can provide concrete guidance on conducting clinically and medicolegally sound suicide risk assessment and management. This collaborative and comprehensive process would potentially improve care of patients with suicidality, optimize clinical resources, decrease unnecessary and costly admissions, and mitigate medicolegal risk. The TRMSP may

  17. Sensing risk, fearing uncertainty: systems science approach to change

    PubMed Central

    Janecka, Ivo P.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Medicine devotes its primary focus to understanding change, from cells to network relationships; observations of non-linearity are inescapable. Recent events provide extraordinary examples of major non-linear surprises within the societal system: human genome-from anticipated 100,000+ genes to only 20,000+; junk DNA-initially ignored but now proven to control genetic processes; economic reversals-bursting of bubbles in technology, housing, finance; foreign wars; relentless rise in obesity, neurodegenerative diseases. There are two attributes of systems science that are especially relevant to this research: One—it offers a method for creating a structural context with a guiding path to pragmatic knowledge; and, two—it gives pre-eminence to sensory input capable to register, evaluate, and react to change. Materials/Methods: Public domain records of change, during the last 50 years, have been studied in the context of systems science, the dynamic systems model, and various cycles. Results/Conclusions: Change is dynamic, ever-present, never isolated, and of variable impact; it reflects innumerable relationships among contextual systems; change can be perceived as risk or uncertainty depending upon how the assessment is made; risk is quantifiable by sensory input and generates a degree of rational optimism; uncertainty is not quantifiable and evokes fear; trust is key to sharing risk; the measurable financial credit can be a proxy for societal trust; expanding credit dilutes trust; when a credit bubble bursts, so will trust; absence of trust paralyzes systems' relationships leading to disorganized complexity which prevents value creation and heightens the probability of random events; disappearance of value, accompanied by chaos, threatens all systems. From personal health to economic sustainability and collective rationality, most examined components of the societal system were found not to be optimized and trust was not in evidence. PMID:24744723

  18. Proactive Approach to Lymphedema Risk Reduction: A Prospective Study

    PubMed Central

    Fu, Mei R.; Axelrod, Deborah; Guth, Amber A.; Cartwright, Francis; Qiu, Zeyuan; Goldberg, Judith D.; Kim, June; Scagliola, Joan; Kleinman, Robin; Haber, Judith

    2014-01-01

    Background Advances in cancer treatments continue to reduce the incidence of lymphedema. Yet, many breast cancer survivors still face long-term post-operative challenges as a result of developing lymphedema. The purpose of this study was to preliminarily evaluate The-Optimal-Lymph-Flow program, a patient-centered education and behavioral program focusing on self-care strategies to enhance lymphedema risk reduction by promoting lymph flow and optimize body mass index. Methods A prospective, longitudinal, quasi-experimental design with repeated-measures was used. The study outcomes included lymph volume changes by infra-red perometer and body mass index by a bioimpedance device at pre-surgery baseline, 2-4 weeks after surgery, 6-month, and 12-month follow-up. A total of 140 patients were recruited and participated in The-Optimal-Lymph-Flow program; 134 patients completed the study with 4% attrition rate. Results Fifty-eight percent patients had axillary node dissection and 42% had sentinel lymph node biopsy. The majority (97%) of patients maintained and improved their preoperative limb volume and body mass index at the study endpoint of 12 months following cancer surgery. Cumulatively, 2 patients with sentinel lymph node biopsy and 2 patients with the axillary lymph node dissection had measurable lymphedema (>10% limb volume change). At 12-month follow-up, among the 4 patients with measurable lymphedema, 2 patients' limb volume returned to pre-operative level without compression therapy but by maintaining The-Optimal-Lymph-Flow exercises to promote daily lymph flow. Conclusions This educational and behavioral program is effective to enhance lymphedema risk reduction. The study provided initial evidence for emerging change in lymphedema care from treatment-focus to proactive risk reduction. PMID:24809302

  19. APPROACHES FOR INCORPORATING NON-CHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Over the past twenty years, the risk assessment paradigm has gradually shifted from an individual chemical approach to a community-based model. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is consideration of the totality of stressors affecting a defined population including both ...

  20. Approach on environmental risk assessment of nanosilver released from textiles.

    PubMed

    Voelker, Doris; Schlich, Karsten; Hohndorf, Lars; Koch, Wolfgang; Kuehnen, Ute; Polleichtner, Christian; Kussatz, Carola; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

    2015-07-01

    Based on the increased utilization of nanosilver (silver nanomaterials=AgNM) as antibacterial agent, there is the strong need to assess the potential environmental implication associated with its new application areas. In this study an exemplary environmental risk assessment (ERA) of AgNM applied in textiles was performed. Environmental exposure scenarios (via municipal sewage treatment plant (STP)) with wastewater supply from domestic homes) were developed for three different types of textiles equipped with AgNM. Based on these scenarios predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) were deduced for STPs and for the environmental compartments surface water, sediment as well as soil. These PECs were related to PNECs (predicted no effect concentrations). PNECs were deduced from results of ecotoxicity tests of a selected AgNM (NM-300K). Data on ecotoxicology were derived from various tests with activated sludge, cyanobacteria, algae, daphnids, fish, duckweed, macrophytes, chironomids, earthworms, terrestrial plants as well as soil microorganisms. Emission data for the AgNM NM-300K from textiles were derived from washing experiments. The performed ERA was based on the specifications defined in the ECHA Guidances on information requirements and chemical safety assessment. Based on the chosen scenarios and preconditions, no environmental risk of the AgNM NM-300K released from textiles was detected. Under conservative assumptions a risk quotient for surface water close to 1 indicated that the aquatic compartment may be affected by an increased emission of AgNM to the environment due to the high sensitivity of aquatic organisms to silver. Based on the successful retention of AgNM in the sewage sludge and the still ongoing continual application of sewage sludge on farmland it is recommended to introduce a threshold for total silver content in sewage sludge into the respective regulations. Regarding potential risk mitigation measures, it is emphasized to preferably directly

  1. Risk-based targeting: A new approach in environmental protection

    SciTech Connect

    Fox, C.A.

    1995-12-31

    Risk-based targeting has recently emerged as an effective tool to help prioritize efforts to identify and manage geographic areas, chemicals, facilities, and agricultural activities that cause the most environmental degradation. This paper focuses on how the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has recently used risk-based targeting to identify and screen Federal, industrial, commercial and municipal facilities which contribute to probable human health (fish consumption advisories and contaminated fish tissue) and aquatic life (contaminated sediments) impacts. Preliminary results identified several hundred potential contributors of problem chemicals to probable impacts within the same river reach in 1991--93. Analysis by industry sector showed that the majority of the facilities identified were publicly owned treatment works (POTWs), in addition to industry organic and inorganic chemical manufacturers, petroleum refineries, and electric services, coatings, engravings, and allied services, among others. Both compliant and non-compliant potentially contributing facilities were identified to some extent in all EPA regions. Additional results identifying possible linkages of other pollutant sources to probable impacts, as well as estimation of potential exposure of these contaminants to minority and/or poverty populations are also presented. Out of these analyses, a number of short and long-term strategies are being developed that EPA may use to reduce loadings of problem contaminants to impacted waterbodies.

  2. DIS in AdS

    SciTech Connect

    Albacete, Javier L.; Kovchegov, Yuri V.; Taliotis, Anastasios

    2009-03-23

    We calculate the total cross section for the scattering of a quark-anti-quark dipole on a large nucleus at high energy for a strongly coupled N = 4 super Yang-Mills theory using AdS/CFT correspondence. We model the nucleus by a metric of a shock wave in AdS{sub 5}. We then calculate the expectation value of the Wilson loop (the dipole) by finding the extrema of the Nambu-Goto action for an open string attached to the quark and antiquark lines of the loop in the background of an AdS{sub 5} shock wave. We find two physically meaningful extremal string configurations. For both solutions we obtain the forward scattering amplitude N for the quark dipole-nucleus scattering. We study the onset of unitarity with increasing center-of-mass energy and transverse size of the dipole: we observe that for both solutions the saturation scale Q{sub s} is independent of energy/Bjorken-x and depends on the atomic number of the nucleus as Q{sub s}{approx}A{sup 1/3}. Finally we observe that while one of the solutions we found corresponds to the pomeron intercept of {alpha}{sub P} = 2 found earlier in the literature, when extended to higher energy or larger dipole sizes it violates the black disk limit. The other solution we found respects the black disk limit and yields the pomeron intercept of {alpha}{sub P} = 1.5. We thus conjecture that the right pomeron intercept in gauge theories at strong coupling may be {alpha}{sub P} = 1.5.

  3. Risk Stratification for Sudden Cardiac Death: Current Approaches and Predictive Value

    PubMed Central

    Lopera, Gustavo; Curtis, Anne B.

    2009-01-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a serious public health problem; the annual incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in North America is approximately 166,200. Identifying patients at risk is a difficult proposition. At the present time, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) remains the single most important marker for risk stratification. According to current guidelines, most patients with LVEF <35% could benefit from prophylactic ICD implantation, particularly in the setting of symptomatic heart failure. Current risk stratification strategies fail to identify patients at risk of SCD in larger population groups encompassing a greater number of potential SCD victims. However, the best approach to identifying patients and the value of various risk stratification tools is not entirely clear. The goal of this review is to discuss the problem of SCD and the value of the different risk stratification markers and their potential clinical use either alone or in combination with other risk stratification markers. PMID:20066150

  4. The risk implications of approaches to setting soil remediation goals at hazardous waste contaminated sites

    SciTech Connect

    Labieniec, P.A.

    1994-08-01

    An integrated exposure and carcinogenic risk assessment model for organic contamination in soil, SoilRisk, was developed and used for evaluating the risk implications of both site-specific and uniform-concentration approaches to setting soil remediation goals at hazardous-waste-contaminated sites. SoilRisk was applied to evaluate the uncertainty in the risk estimate due to uncertainty in site conditions at a representative site. It was also used to evaluate the variability in risk across a region of sites that can occur due to differences in site characteristics that affect contaminant transport and fate when a uniform concentration approach is used. In evaluating regional variability, Ross County, Ohio and the State of Ohio were used as examples. All analyses performed considered four contaminants (benzene, trichloroethylene (TCE), chlordane, and benzo[a]pyrene (BAP)) and four exposure scenarios (commercial, recreational and on- and offsite residential). Regardless of whether uncertainty in risk at a single site or variability in risk across sites was evaluated, the exposure scenario specified and the properties of the target contaminant had more influence than variance in site parameters on the resulting variance and magnitude of the risk estimate. In general, variance in risk was found to be greater for the relatively less degradable and more mobile of the chemicals studied (TCE and chlordane) than for benzene which is highly degradable and BAP which is very immobile in the subsurface.

  5. HDL in sepsis – risk factor and therapeutic approach

    PubMed Central

    Morin, Emily E.; Guo, Ling; Schwendeman, Anna; Li, Xiang-An

    2015-01-01

    High-density lipoprotein (HDL) is a key component of circulating blood and plays essential roles in regulation of vascular endothelial function and immunity. Clinical data demonstrate that HDL levels drop by 40–70% in septic patients, which is associated with a poor prognosis. Experimental studies using Apolipoprotein A-I (ApoAI) null mice showed that HDL deficient mice are susceptible to septic death, and overexpressing ApoAI in mice to increase HDL levels protects against septic death. These clinical and animal studies support our hypothesis that a decrease in HDL level is a risk factor for sepsis, and raising circulating HDL levels may provide an efficient therapy for sepsis. In this review, we discuss the roles of HDL in sepsis and summarize the efforts of using synthetic HDL as a potential therapy for sepsis. PMID:26557091

  6. [Resistant gram-negative bacteria. Therapeutic approach and risk factors].

    PubMed

    Salgado, P; Gilsanz, F; Maseda, E

    2016-09-01

    The rapid spread of multidrug-resistant bacteria has become a serious threat, especially in critical care units, thereby prolonging the hospital stay. Enterobacteriaceae have a high capacity to adapt to any environment. Plasmids are the reason behind their expansion. The choice of empiric therapy for intra-abdominal or urinary infections requires knowledge of the intrinsic microbiological variability of each hospital or critical care unit, as well as the source of infection, safety or antibiotic toxicity, interaction with other drugs, the dosage regimen and the presence of risk factors. Carbapenems are the drug of choice in the case of suspected infection by ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae. The new ceftazidime/avibactam and ceftolozane/tazobactam drugs are opening up promising new horizons in the treatment of multidrug-resistant Enterobacteriaceae. PMID:27608309

  7. Bubbling AdS3

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martelli, Dario; Morales, Jose F.

    2005-02-01

    In the light of the recent Lin, Lunin, Maldacena (LLM) results, we investigate 1/2-BPS geometries in minimal (and next to minimal) supergravity in D = 6 dimensions. In the case of minimal supergravity, solutions are given by fibrations of a two-torus T2 specified by two harmonic functions. For a rectangular torus the two functions are related by a non-linear equation with rare solutions: AdS3 × S3, the pp-wave and the multi-center string. ``Bubbling'', i.e. superpositions of droplets, is accommodated by allowing the complex structure of the T2 to vary over the base. The analysis is repeated in the presence of a tensor multiplet and similar conclusions are reached, with generic solutions describing D1D5 (or their dual fundamental string-momentum) systems. In this framework, the profile of the dual fundamental string-momentum system is identified with the boundaries of the droplets in a two-dimensional plane.

  8. Exploring Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks: a photographic approach to risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Börner, Susanne; Albino, Juan Carlos Torrico; Caraveo, Luz María Nieto; Tejeda, Ana Cristina Cubillas

    2015-05-01

    The objective of this study was to explore Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks in contaminated urban areas, and to test the environmental photography technique as a research tool for engaging adolescents in community-based health research. The study was conducted with 74 adolescents from two communities in the city of San Luis Potosi, Mexico. Participants were provided with disposable cameras and asked to take photographs of elements and situations which they believed affected their personal health both at home and outside their homes. They were also asked to describe each photograph in writing. Photographs and written explanations were analyzed by using quantitative and qualitative content analysis. Risk perception plays a crucial role in the development of Risk Communication Programs (RCPs) aimed at the improvement of community health. The photography technique opens up a promising field for environmental health research since it affords a realistic and concise impression of the perceived risks. Adolescents in both communities perceived different environmental health risks as detrimental to their well-being, e.g. waste, air pollution, and lack of hygiene. Yet, some knowledge gaps remain which need to be addressed. PMID:26017963

  9. Unravelling river system impairments in stream networks with an integrated risk approach.

    PubMed

    Van Looy, Kris; Piffady, Jérémy; Tormos, Thierry; Villeneuve, Bertrand; Valette, Laurent; Chandesris, André; Souchon, Yves

    2015-06-01

    Rivers are complex systems for which it is hard to make reliable assessments of causes and responses to impairments. We present a holistic risk-based framework for river ecosystem assessment integrating all potential intervening processes and functions. Risk approaches allow us to deal with uncertainty both in the construction of indicators for magnitude of stressors and in the inference of environmental processes and their impairment. Yet, here we go further than simply replacing uncertainty by a risk factor. We introduce a more accurate and rigorous notion of risk with a transcription of uncertainty in causal relationships in probability distributions for the magnitude of impairment and the weight of different descriptors, with an associated confidence in the diagnostic. We discuss how Bayesian belief networks and Bayesian hierarchical inference allow us to deal with this risk concept to predict impairments and potential recovery of river ecosystems. We developed a comprehensive approach for river ecosystem assessment, which offers an appealing tool to facilitate diagnosis of the likely causes of impairment and predict future conditions. The ability of the risk approaches to integrate multi-scale quantitative and qualitative descriptors in the identification of multiple stressor sources and pathways in the stream network, and their impairment of specific processes and structures is illustrated for the national-level risk analysis for hydromorphology and pesticide pollution. Not only does the risk-based framework provide a more complete picture of environmental impairments, but it also offers a comprehensive, user-friendly tool to instruct the decision process. PMID:25832345

  10. Unravelling River System Impairments in Stream Networks with an Integrated Risk Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Looy, Kris; Piffady, Jérémy; Tormos, Thierry; Villeneuve, Bertrand; Valette, Laurent; Chandesris, André; Souchon, Yves

    2015-06-01

    Rivers are complex systems for which it is hard to make reliable assessments of causes and responses to impairments. We present a holistic risk-based framework for river ecosystem assessment integrating all potential intervening processes and functions. Risk approaches allow us to deal with uncertainty both in the construction of indicators for magnitude of stressors and in the inference of environmental processes and their impairment. Yet, here we go further than simply replacing uncertainty by a risk factor. We introduce a more accurate and rigorous notion of risk with a transcription of uncertainty in causal relationships in probability distributions for the magnitude of impairment and the weight of different descriptors, with an associated confidence in the diagnostic. We discuss how Bayesian belief networks and Bayesian hierarchical inference allow us to deal with this risk concept to predict impairments and potential recovery of river ecosystems. We developed a comprehensive approach for river ecosystem assessment, which offers an appealing tool to facilitate diagnosis of the likely causes of impairment and predict future conditions. The ability of the risk approaches to integrate multi-scale quantitative and qualitative descriptors in the identification of multiple stressor sources and pathways in the stream network, and their impairment of specific processes and structures is illustrated for the national-level risk analysis for hydromorphology and pesticide pollution. Not only does the risk-based framework provide a more complete picture of environmental impairments, but it also offers a comprehensive, user-friendly tool to instruct the decision process.

  11. Approach to proliferation risk assessment based on multiple objective analysis framework

    SciTech Connect

    Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I.

    2013-07-01

    The approach to the assessment of proliferation risk using the methods of multi-criteria decision making and multi-objective optimization is presented. The approach allows the taking into account of the specifics features of the national nuclear infrastructure, and possible proliferation strategies (motivations, intentions, and capabilities). 3 examples of applying the approach are shown. First, the approach has been used to evaluate the attractiveness of HEU (high enriched uranium)production scenarios at a clandestine enrichment facility using centrifuge enrichment technology. Secondly, the approach has been applied to assess the attractiveness of scenarios for undeclared production of plutonium or HEU by theft of materials circulating in nuclear fuel cycle facilities and thermal reactors. Thirdly, the approach has been used to perform a comparative analysis of the structures of developing nuclear power systems based on different types of nuclear fuel cycles, the analysis being based on indicators of proliferation risk.

  12. A novel approach for evaluating the risk of health care failure modes.

    PubMed

    Chang, Dong Shang; Chung, Jenq Hann; Sun, Kuo Lung; Yang, Fu Chiang

    2012-12-01

    Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) can be employed to reduce medical errors by identifying the risk ranking of the health care failure modes and taking priority action for safety improvement. The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel approach of data analysis. The approach is to integrate FMEA and a mathematical tool-Data envelopment analysis (DEA) with "slack-based measure" (SBM), in the field of data analysis. The risk indexes (severity, occurrence, and detection) of FMEA are viewed as multiple inputs of DEA. The practicality and usefulness of the proposed approach is illustrated by one case of health care. Being a systematic approach for improving the service quality of health care, the approach can offer quantitative corrective information of risk indexes that thereafter reduce failure possibility. For safety improvement, these new targets of the risk indexes could be used for management by objectives. But FMEA cannot provide quantitative corrective information of risk indexes. The novel approach can surely overcome this chief shortcoming of FMEA. After combining DEA SBM model with FMEA, the two goals-increase of patient safety, medical cost reduction-can be together achieved. PMID:22773135

  13. A Risk Management Approach to the "Insider Threat"

    SciTech Connect

    Bishop, Matt; Engle, Sophie J.; Frincke, Deborah A.; Gates, Carrie; Greitzer, Frank L.; Peisert, Sean; Whalen, Sean

    2010-09-01

    Abstract Recent surveys indicate that the financial impact and operating losses due to insider intrusions are increasing. But these studies often disagree on what constitutes an insider; indeed, many define it only implicitly. In theory, appropriate selection of, and enforcement of, properly specified security policies should prevent legitimate users from abusing their access to computer systems, information, and other resources. However, even if policies could be expressed precisely, the natural mapping between the natural language expression of a security policy, and the expression of that policy in a form that can be implemented on a computer system or network, creates gaps in enforcement. This paper defines insider precisely, in terms of these gaps, and explores an access-based model for analyzing threats that include those usually termed insider threats. This model enables an organization to order its resources based on the business value for that resource and of the information it contains. By identifying those users with access to high-value resources, we obtain an ordered list of users who can cause the greatest amount of damage. Concurrently with this, we examine psychological indicators in order to determine which users are at the greatest risk of acting inappropriately.We conclude by examining how to merge this model with one of forensic logging and auditing.

  14. Risk Governance of Multiple Natural Hazards: Centralized versus Decentralized Approach in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komendantova, Nadejda; Scolobig, Anna; Vinchon, Charlotte

    2014-05-01

    The multi-risk approach is a relatively new field and its definition includes the need to consider multiple hazards and vulnerabilities in their interdependency (Selva, 2013) and the current multi-hazards disasters, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and nuclear catastrophe, showed the need for a multi-risk approach in hazard mitigation and management. Our knowledge about multi-risk assessment, including studies from different scientific disciplines and developed assessment tools, is constantly growing (White et al., 2001). However, the link between scientific knowledge, its implementation and the results in terms of improved governance and decision-making have gained significantly less attention (IRGC, 2005; Kappes et al., 2012), even though the interest to risk governance, in general, has increased significantly during the last years (Verweiy and Thompson, 2006). Therefore, the key research question is how risk assessment is implemented and what is the potential for the implementation of a multi-risk approach in different governance systems across Europe. More precisely, how do the characteristics of risk governance, such as the degree of centralization versus decentralization, influence the implementation of a multi-risk approach. The methodology of this research includes comparative case study analysis of top-down and bottom-up interactions in governance in the city of Naples, (Italy), where the institutional landscape is marked by significant autonomy of Italian regions in decision-making processes for assessing the majority of natural risks, excluding volcanic, and in Guadeloupe, French West Indies, an overseas department of France, where the decision-making process is marked by greater centralization in decision making associated with a well established state governance within regions, delegated to the prefect and decentralised services of central ministries. The research design included documentary analysis and extensive empirical work involving

  15. Risk Governance of Multiple Natural Hazards: Centralized versus Decentralized Approach in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komendantova, Nadejda; Scolobig, Anna; Vinchon, Charlotte

    2014-05-01

    The multi-risk approach is a relatively new field and its definition includes the need to consider multiple hazards and vulnerabilities in their interdependency (Selva, 2013) and the current multi-hazards disasters, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and nuclear catastrophe, showed the need for a multi-risk approach in hazard mitigation and management. Our knowledge about multi-risk assessment, including studies from different scientific disciplines and developed assessment tools, is constantly growing (White et al., 2001). However, the link between scientific knowledge, its implementation and the results in terms of improved governance and decision-making have gained significantly less attention (IRGC, 2005; Kappes et al., 2012), even though the interest to risk governance, in general, has increased significantly during the last years (Verweiy and Thompson, 2006). Therefore, the key research question is how risk assessment is implemented and what is the potential for the implementation of a multi-risk approach in different governance systems across Europe. More precisely, how do the characteristics of risk governance, such as the degree of centralization versus decentralization, influence the implementation of a multi-risk approach. The methodology of this research includes comparative case study analysis of top-down and bottom-up interactions in governance in the city of Naples, (Italy), where the institutional landscape is marked by significant autonomy of Italian regions in decision-making processes for assessing the majority of natural risks, excluding volcanic, and in Guadeloupe, French West Indies, an overseas department of France, where the decision-making process is marked by greater centralization in decision making associated with a well established state governance within regions, delegated to the prefect and decentralised services of central ministries. The research design included documentary analysis and extensive empirical work involving

  16. Community, state, and federal approaches to cumulative risk assessment: challenges and opportunities for integration.

    PubMed

    Barzyk, Timothy M; Wilson, Sacoby; Wilson, Anthony

    2015-05-01

    Community, state, and federal approaches to conventional and cumulative risk assessment (CRA) were described and compared to assess similarities and differences, and develop recommendations for a consistent CRA approach, acceptable across each level as a rigorous scientific methodology, including partnership formation and solution development as necessary practices. Community, state, and federal examples were described and then summarized based on their adherence to CRA principles of: (1) planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2) risk analysis and ranking, and (3) risk characterization, interpretation, and management. While each application shared the common goal of protecting human health and the environment, they adopted different approaches to achieve this. For a specific project-level analysis of a particular place or instance, this may be acceptable, but to ensure long-term applicability and transferability to other projects, recommendations for developing a consistent approach to CRA are provided. This approach would draw from best practices, risk assessment and decision analysis sciences, and historical lessons learned to provide results in an understandable and accepted manner by all entities. This approach is intended to provide a common ground around which to develop CRA methods and approaches that can be followed at all levels. PMID:25918910

  17. Community, State, and Federal Approaches to Cumulative Risk Assessment: Challenges and Opportunities for Integration

    PubMed Central

    Barzyk, Timothy M.; Wilson, Sacoby; Wilson, Anthony

    2015-01-01

    Community, state, and federal approaches to conventional and cumulative risk assessment (CRA) were described and compared to assess similarities and differences, and develop recommendations for a consistent CRA approach, acceptable across each level as a rigorous scientific methodology, including partnership formation and solution development as necessary practices. Community, state, and federal examples were described and then summarized based on their adherence to CRA principles of: (1) planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2) risk analysis and ranking, and (3) risk characterization, interpretation, and management. While each application shared the common goal of protecting human health and the environment, they adopted different approaches to achieve this. For a specific project-level analysis of a particular place or instance, this may be acceptable, but to ensure long-term applicability and transferability to other projects, recommendations for developing a consistent approach to CRA are provided. This approach would draw from best practices, risk assessment and decision analysis sciences, and historical lessons learned to provide results in an understandable and accepted manner by all entities. This approach is intended to provide a common ground around which to develop CRA methods and approaches that can be followed at all levels. PMID:25918910

  18. An approach for integrating toxicogenomic data in risk assessment: The dibutyl phthalate case study

    SciTech Connect

    Euling, Susan Y.; Thompson, Chad M.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Benson, Robert

    2013-09-15

    An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and recommendations of the scientific community. Dibutyl phthalate (DBP) was selected for the case study exercise. The scoping phase of the dibutyl phthalate case study was conducted by considering the available DBP genomic data, taken together with the entire data set, for whether they could inform various risk assessment aspects, such as toxicodynamics, toxicokinetics, and dose–response. A description of weighing the available dibutyl phthalate data set for utility in risk assessment provides an example for considering genomic data for future chemical assessments. As a result of conducting the scoping process, two questions—Do the DBP toxicogenomic data inform 1) the mechanisms or modes of action?, and 2) the interspecies differences in toxicodynamics?—were selected to focus the case study exercise. Principles of the general approach include considering the genomics data in conjunction with all other data to determine their ability to inform the various qualitative and/or quantitative aspects of risk assessment, and evaluating the relationship between the available genomic and toxicity outcome data with respect to study comparability and phenotypic anchoring. Based on experience from the DBP case study, recommendations and a general approach for integrating genomic data in chemical assessment were developed to advance the broader effort to utilize 21st century data in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Performed DBP case study for integrating genomic data in risk assessment • Present approach for considering genomic data in chemical risk assessment • Present recommendations for use of genomic data in chemical risk assessment.

  19. A new approach to hazardous materials transportation risk analysis: decision modeling to identify critical variables.

    PubMed

    Clark, Renee M; Besterfield-Sacre, Mary E

    2009-03-01

    We take a novel approach to analyzing hazardous materials transportation risk in this research. Previous studies analyzed this risk from an operations research (OR) or quantitative risk assessment (QRA) perspective by minimizing or calculating risk along a transport route. Further, even though the majority of incidents occur when containers are unloaded, the research has not focused on transportation-related activities, including container loading and unloading. In this work, we developed a decision model of a hazardous materials release during unloading using actual data and an exploratory data modeling approach. Previous studies have had a theoretical perspective in terms of identifying and advancing the key variables related to this risk, and there has not been a focus on probability and statistics-based approaches for doing this. Our decision model empirically identifies the critical variables using an exploratory methodology for a large, highly categorical database involving latent class analysis (LCA), loglinear modeling, and Bayesian networking. Our model identified the most influential variables and countermeasures for two consequences of a hazmat incident, dollar loss and release quantity, and is one of the first models to do this. The most influential variables were found to be related to the failure of the container. In addition to analyzing hazmat risk, our methodology can be used to develop data-driven models for strategic decision making in other domains involving risk. PMID:19087232

  20. A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management.

    PubMed

    Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-Ya; Li, Xiao-Li; Wang, Da-Zhou; Li, Yu

    2013-10-15

    A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including "residential land" and "industrial land" environmental guidelines under "strict" and "loose" strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management. PMID:23995555

  1. The Incremental Diagnostic Performance of Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography Added to Myocardial Perfusion Imaging in Patients with Intermediate-to-High Cardiovascular Risk

    PubMed Central

    Hsu, Pei-Ying; Lee, Wen-Jeng; Cheng, Mei-Fang; Yen, Ruoh-Fang; Tzen, Kai-Yuan; Wu, Yen-Wen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Several studies have suggested that a combined approach of stress myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) and coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) can provide diagnostic results with excellent accuracy. We aimed to explore whether the addition of CCTA to stress MPI provides incremental diagnostic value in intermediate-to-high cardiovascular risk patients. Methods A total of 106 consecutive patients (93 male, 65 ± 10.4 years) underwent coronary artery calcium scoring (CACS), CCTA and 201Thallium stress MPI before coronary angiography was reviewed. Thirty-seven patients (34.9%) had a history of proven coronary artery disease (CAD) or revascularization procedures, and four had documented non-significant CAD (3.8%). The remaining patients consisted of 17 (16.0%) classified as intermediate, and 48 (45.3%) as the high-risk groups. Results Obstructive CAD was diagnosed by invasive coronary angiography in 88 patients with 161 vessels. The sensitivity and specificity in a patient-based analysis for obstructive CAD were 99% and 17% for CCTA, 80% and 50% for MPI and 91% and 67% for the combined method, respectively. The per-vessel diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were 95% and 54% for CCTA, 59% and 75% for MPI and 84% and 76% for the combined method. There were significant differences (p < 0.05) when comparing the combined method with MPI or CCTA by areas under the curve in a patient- or vessel-based analysis. However, CACS of 400 or more could not further stratify the patients with obstructive CAD. Conclusions CCTA, not CACS, provided additional diagnostic values to stress MPI in patients with intermediate-to-high cardiovascular risk. PMID:27122945

  2. Extreme Meteorological Events from documentary sources on old Aragon Kingdom, AD1000-1500. Firsts results after a systematic approach to data availability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rama, Eduard; Barriendos, Mariano

    2010-05-01

    Extreme Meteorological Events from documentary sources on old Aragon Kingdom, AD 1000-1500. Firsts results after a systematic approach to data availability Eduard Rama1, Mariano Barriendos2 1 Research Laboratory on Climate, Scientific Park of Barcelona 2 Department of Modern History, University of Barcelona Research on documentary sources focused on detection and reconstruction of climatic data and extreme meteorological events is an activity with notable tradition on palaeoclimatic discipline. Historical climatology offers a good source of climatic and environmental proxy-data. This information covers past centuries establishing good overlapping with instrumental data availability period. Best qualities of historical information are a high temporal resolution, an exact and reliable datation, and complementary information related to environmental and human impacts. Historical climatology offers a large number of data chronologies for Europe covering historiographical periods from Low Middle Age to Contemporary Age (14th to 20th Centuries). Into framework of EU IP Millennium, a systematic research assumed the challenge to collect data from High Middle Age. Documentary sources are discontinuous and scattered, information is not precise and reliable, but all possible original information can be useful to characterize the Warm Medieval Period, most recent climatic period similar to possible climate of next future, at least concerning thermic conditions. Present work shows a systematic effort on documentary sources of Old Aragon Kingdom (actually, spanish regions of Catalonia, Aragon, Valentia and Balearic Islands), collecting extreme weather events for period AD1000-1500. Historical context of Aragon Kingdom was no easy in this period, focused on recovering territory in front of Muslim Kingdoms (Reconsquista) up to 13th Century from North to South. After this, consolidation of modern institutions and urban network took 14-15th Centuries. Data sources has been all

  3. Where Lies the Risk? An Ecological Approach to Understanding Child Mental Health Risk and Vulnerabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa

    PubMed Central

    Atilola, Olayinka

    2014-01-01

    Efforts at improving child-health and development initiatives in sub-Saharan Africa had focused on the physical health of children due to the neglect of child and adolescent mental health (CAMH) policy initiatives. A thorough and broad-based understanding of the prevalent child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors is needed to successfully articulate CAMH policies. In this discourse, we present a narrative on the child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors in sub-Saharan Africa. Through an ecological point of view, we identified widespread family poverty, poor availability and uptake of childcare resources, inadequate community and institutional childcare systems, and inadequate framework for social protection for vulnerable children as among the risk and vulnerability factors for CAMH in the region. Others are poor workplace policy/practice that does not support work-family life balance, poor legislative framework for child protection, and some harmful traditional practices. We conclude that an ecological approach shows that child mental-health risks are diverse and cut across different layers of the care environment. The approach also provides a broad and holistic template from which appropriate CAMH policy direction in sub-Saharan Africa can be understood. PMID:24834431

  4. Regulatory approach on environmental risk assessment. Risk management recommendations, reasonable and prudent alternatives.

    PubMed

    Meisel, Maria Leonor; do Céu Costa, Maria; Pena, Angelina

    2009-11-01

    Current knowledge shows that residues of human medicinal products at trace quantities are widespread in aquatic systems. The sewage treatment plants are pointed out as the major source discharge of these compounds on the environment. In this context, it has been worldwide recognised that the environmental impact of medicinal products have to be evaluated, according to recent EU legislation and regulatory guidance. The strategy of the global risk assessment includes primarily a pre-screening based on the estimation of exposure concentrations of drugs in the wastewater. The present paper addresses the decision-maker frontier of the ecologically relevant endpoints. Risk management recommendation and reasonable and prudent alternatives are discussed to minimise the possible environmental impact. PMID:19590955

  5. Plant-Based No Added Fat or American Heart Association Diets, Impact on Cardiovascular Risk in Obese Hypercholesterolemic Children and Their Parents

    PubMed Central

    Macknin, Michael; Kong, Tammie; Weier, Adam; Worley, Sarah; Tang, Anne S.; Alkhouri, Naim; Golubic, Mladen

    2015-01-01

    Objective To perform a randomized trial to determine if there is cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk reduction from a plant-based no added fat diet (PB) and the American Heart Association Diet (AHA) in children. Study design Four-week (4/20/2013-5/18/2013) prospective randomized trial in a large Midwestern hospital system’s predominantly middle class outpatient pediatric practices. Thirty children (9–18 years old) parent pairs with a last recorded child BMI >95th percentile and child cholesterol >169 mg/dL were randomized to PB or AHA with weekly 2-hour classes of nutrition education. Results Children on PB had nine and children on AHA had four statistically significant (P<0.05) beneficial changes from baseline (mean decreases): BMI Z-scorePB (−0.14), systolic blood pressurePB (−6.43 mm Hg), total cholesterolPB (−22.5 mg/dL), low density lipoproteinPB (−13.14 mg/dL), hsCRPPB (−2.09 mg/L), insulinPB (−5.42uU/ml), myeloperoxidasePB/AHA (−75.34/69.23 pmol/L), mid-arm circumferencePB/AHA (−2.02/−1.55 cm), weightPB/AHA (−3.05/ −1.14kg) and waist circumferenceAHA (−2.96 cm). Adults on PB and AHA had seven and two respectively statistically significant (P<0.05) beneficial changes. The significant change favoring AHA was a 1% difference in children’s waist circumference. Difficulty shopping for food for the PB was the only statistically significant acceptability barrier. Conclusions PB and the AHA in both children and adults demonstrated potentially beneficial changes from baseline in risk factors for CVD. Future larger, long-term randomized trials with easily accessible PB foods will further define the role of the PB in preventing CVD. PMID:25684089

  6. Comparison of a Traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approach with Advanced Safety Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Curtis L; Mandelli, Diego; Zhegang Ma

    2014-11-01

    As part of the Light Water Sustainability Program (LWRS) [1], the purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) [2] Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margin management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs. In this paper, we describe the RISMC analysis process illustrating how mechanistic and probabilistic approaches are combined in order to estimate a safety margin. We use the scenario of a “station blackout” (SBO) wherein offsite power and onsite power is lost, thereby causing a challenge to plant safety systems. We describe the RISMC approach, illustrate the station blackout modeling, and contrast this with traditional risk analysis modeling for this type of accident scenario. We also describe our approach we are using to represent advanced flooding analysis.

  7. Multi-hazard national-level risk assessment in Africa using global approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Murnane, Richard

    2016-04-01

    In recent years Sub-Saharan Africa has been characterized by unprecedented opportunity for transformation and sustained growth. However, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and extreme temperatures cause significant economic and human losses, and major development challenges. Quantitative disaster risk assessments are an important basis for governments to understand disaster risk in their country, and to develop effective risk management and risk financing solutions. However, the data-scarce nature of many Sub-Saharan African countries as well as a lack of financing for risk assessments has long prevented detailed analytics. Recent advances in globally applicable disaster risk modelling practices and data availability offer new opportunities. In December 2013 the European Union approved a € 60 million contribution to support the development of an analytical basis for risk financing and to accelerate the effective implementation of a comprehensive disaster risk reduction. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) was selected as the implementing partner of the Program for Result Area 5: the "Africa Disaster Risk Assessment and Financing Program." As part of this effort, the GFDRR is overseeing the production of national-level multi-hazard risk profiles for a range of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, using a combination of national and global datasets and state-of-the-art hazard and risk assessment methodologies. In this presentation, we will highlight the analytical approach behind these assessments, and show results for the first five countries for which the assessment has been completed (Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Niger and Ethiopia). The presentation will also demonstrate the visualization of the risk assessments into understandable and visually attractive risk profile documents.

  8. Development of an Ad5H3 Chimera Using the “Antigen Capsid-Incorporation” Strategy for an Alternative Vaccination Approach

    PubMed Central

    Gu, Linlin; Icyuz, Mert; Krendelchtchikova, Valentina; Krendelchtchikov, Alexandre; Johnston, Alison E.; Matthews, Qiana L.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Adenovirus type 5 (Ad5) achieved success as a conventional transgene vaccine vector in preclinical trials, however; achieved poor efficiency in some of the clinical trials, due to the major hurdle associated with Ad5 pre-existing immunity (PEI) in the majority of the human population. Objective: We sought to generate Ad5-based chimeras to assess their capabilities to bypass this bottleneck and to induce antigen-specific humoral immune response. Methods: A His6 tag was incorporated into the hypervariable region 2 (HVR2) of hexon3 (H3) capsid protein using the “Antigen Capsid-Incorporation” strategy. This lead to the construction of a viral chimera, Ad5H3-HVR2-His. Ad5H3 was generated previously by substituting the hexon of Ad5 (hexon5) with the hexon from adenovirus type 3 (Ad3). Results: His6 was presented on the viral capsid surface and recognized by a His6 antibody. An in vitro neutralization assay with Ad5 sera indicated the ability of Ad5 chimeras to partially escape Ad5 immunity. Immunization with Ad5H3-HVR2-His generated significant humoral response to the incorporated tagged peptide, when compared to the immunizations with controls. Conclusion: Based on our in vitro studies the data suggested that Ad5H3 as a novel chimeric vaccine platform yields the possibility to escape Ad5 neutralization, and the potential to generate robust humoral immunity against incorporated antigens using the “Antigen Capsid-Incorporation” strategy. PMID:27335626

  9. Electrophysiologic testing guided risk stratification approach for sudden cardiac death beyond the left ventricular ejection fraction.

    PubMed

    Gatzoulis, Konstantinos A; Tsiachris, Dimitris; Arsenos, Petros; Tousoulis, Dimitris

    2016-01-26

    Sudden cardiac death threats ischaemic and dilated cardiomyopathy patients. Anti- arrhythmic protection may be provided to these patients with implanted cardiac defibrillators (ICD), after an efficient risk stratification approach. The proposed risk stratifier of an impaired left ventricular ejection fraction has limited sensitivity meaning that a significant number of victims will remain undetectable by this risk stratification approach because they have a preserved left ventricular systolic function. Current risk stratification strategies focus on combinations of non invasive methods like T wave alternans, late potentials, heart rate turbulence, deceleration capacity and others, with invasive methods like the electrophysiologic study. In the presence of an electrically impaired substrate with formed post myocardial infarction fibrotic zones, programmed ventricular stimulation provides important prognostic information for the selection of the patients expected to benefit from an ICD implantation, while due to its high negative predictive value, patients at low risk level may also be detected. Clustering evidence from different research groups and electrophysiologic labs support an electrophysiologic testing guided risk stratification approach for sudden cardiac death. PMID:26839662

  10. Current approaches in the management of low risk Hodgkin lymphoma in children and adolescents.

    PubMed

    Giulino-Roth, Lisa; Keller, Frank G; Hodgson, David C; Kelly, Kara M

    2015-06-01

    The outcome for children and adolescents with low risk Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) is excellent, with event-free survival >85% and overall survival >95%. Historically, however, treatment has come at the cost of significant long-term toxicity from chemotherapy, radiation or a combination of these. Recent treatment strategies have focused on maintaining high event-free and overall survival while minimizing the use of therapy associated with late effects. The strategies used to achieve this vary greatly among paediatric cooperative groups and there is no one standard treatment for children with low risk HL. This review summaries recent clinical trials in paediatric low risk HL and addresses some of the important considerations when comparing trials, including differences in the definition of low risk HL, differences in outcome among histological subtypes and varying approaches to reduce or eliminate radiation therapy. Recommendations are provided for the treatment of children with low risk HL outside the setting of a clinical trial. PMID:25824371

  11. The Analysis of Rush Orders Risk in Supply Chain: A Simulation Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mahfouz, Amr; Arisha, Amr

    2011-01-01

    Satisfying customers by delivering demands at agreed time, with competitive prices, and in satisfactory quality level are crucial requirements for supply chain survival. Incidence of risks in supply chain often causes sudden disruptions in the processes and consequently leads to customers losing their trust in a company's competence. Rush orders are considered to be one of the main types of supply chain risks due to their negative impact on the overall performance, Using integrated definition modeling approaches (i.e. IDEF0 & IDEF3) and simulation modeling technique, a comprehensive integrated model has been developed to assess rush order risks and examine two risk mitigation strategies. Detailed functions sequence and objects flow were conceptually modeled to reflect on macro and micro levels of the studied supply chain. Discrete event simulation models were then developed to assess and investigate the mitigation strategies of rush order risks, the objective of this is to minimize order cycle time and cost.

  12. Integrating renewable energy technologies in the electric supply industry: A risk management approach

    SciTech Connect

    Hoff, T.E.

    1997-07-01

    Regulatory and technical forces are causing electric utilities to move from a natural monopoly to a more competitive environment. Associated with this movement is an increasing concern about how to manage the risks associated with the electric supply business. One approach to managing risks is to purchase financial instruments such as options and futures contracts. Another approach is to own physical assets that have low risk attributes or characteristics. This research evaluates how investments in renewable energy technologies can mitigate risks in the electric supply industry. It identifies risks that are known to be of concern to utilities and other power producers. These risks include uncertainty in fuel prices, demand, environmental regulations, capital cost, supply, and market structure. The research then determines how investments in renewables can mitigate these risks. Methods are developed to calculate the value of renewables in terms of their attributes of fuel costs, environmental costs, lead-time, modularity, availability, initial capital costs, and investment reversibility. Examples illustrate how to apply the methods.

  13. Waste management project's alternatives: A risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach

    SciTech Connect

    Karmperis, Athanasios C.; Sotirchos, Anastasios; Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.

    2012-01-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We examine the evaluation of a waste management project's alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We present a novel risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer In the RBMCA the evaluation criteria are based on the quantitative risk analysis of the project's alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers' risk preferences is examined. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Preference to the multi-criteria against the one-criterion evaluation process is discussed. - Abstract: This paper examines the evaluation of a waste management project's alternatives through a quantitative risk analysis. Cost benefit analysis is a widely used method, in which the investments are mainly assessed through the calculation of their evaluation indicators, namely benefit/cost (B/C) ratios, as well as the quantification of their financial, technical, environmental and social risks. Herein, a novel approach in the form of risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) is introduced, which can be used by decision makers, in order to select the optimum alternative of a waste management project. Specifically, decision makers use multiple criteria, which are based on the cumulative probability distribution functions of the alternatives' B/C ratios. The RBMCA system is used for the evaluation of a waste incineration project's alternatives, where the correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers' risk preferences is analyzed and useful conclusions are discussed.

  14. A Stochastic Approach To Human Health Risk Assessment Due To Groundwater Contamination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Barros, F. P.; Rubin, Y.

    2006-12-01

    We present a probabilistic framework to addressing adverse human health effects due to groundwater contamination. One of the main challenges in health risk assessment is in relating it to subsurface data acquisition and to improvement in our understanding of human physiological responses to contamination. In this paper we propose to investigate this problem through an approach that integrates flow, transport and human health risk models with hydrogeological characterization. A human health risk cumulative distribution function is analytically developed to account for both uncertainty and variability in hydrogeological as well as human physiological parameters. With our proposed approach, we investigate under which conditions the reduction of uncertainties from flow physics, human physiology and exposure related parameters might contribute to a better understanding of human health risk assessment. Results indicate that the human health risk cumulative distribution function is sensitive to physiological parameters at low risk values associated with longer travel times. The results show that the worth of hydrogeological characterization in human health risk is dependent on the residence time of the contaminant plume in the aquifer and on the exposure duration of the population to certain chemicals.

  15. Combined state-adding and state-deleting approaches to type III multi-step rationally extended potentials: Applications to ladder operators and superintegrability

    SciTech Connect

    Marquette, Ian; Quesne, Christiane

    2014-11-15

    Type III multi-step rationally extended harmonic oscillator and radial harmonic oscillator potentials, characterized by a set of k integers m{sub 1}, m{sub 2}, ⋯, m{sub k}, such that m{sub 1} < m{sub 2} < ⋯ < m{sub k} with m{sub i} even (resp. odd) for i odd (resp. even), are considered. The state-adding and state-deleting approaches to these potentials in a supersymmetric quantum mechanical framework are combined to construct new ladder operators. The eigenstates of the Hamiltonians are shown to separate into m{sub k} + 1 infinite-dimensional unitary irreducible representations of the corresponding polynomial Heisenberg algebras. These ladder operators are then used to build a higher-order integral of motion for seven new infinite families of superintegrable two-dimensional systems separable in cartesian coordinates. The finite-dimensional unitary irreducible representations of the polynomial algebras of such systems are directly determined from the ladder operator action on the constituent one-dimensional Hamiltonian eigenstates and provide an algebraic derivation of the superintegrable systems whole spectrum including the level total degeneracies.

  16. From network analysis to risk analysis--An approach to risk-based surveillance for bovine tuberculosis in Minnesota, US.

    PubMed

    Ribeiro-Lima, J; Enns, E A; Thompson, B; Craft, M E; Wells, S J

    2015-03-01

    Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) was first detected in 2005 in cattle in northwestern Minnesota (MN) through slaughter surveillance. By the end of 2008, 12 cattle herds were infected with bTB, and the main cause for infection was determined to be the movement of infected animals between herds. Bovine tuberculosis was contained in a smaller area in northwestern Minnesota classified as modified accredited (MA), corresponding to a prevalence inferior to 0.1% in cattle. From January 2008 to 2011, all cattle movements within the bTB MA were recorded electronically. The primary objectives of this study were to characterize cattle movements within this region and identify cattle herds with higher risk of bTB introduction based on network parameters and known risk factors from the published literature. During the period that data was collected, 57,460 cattle were moved in 3762 movements corresponding to permits issued to 682 premises, mostly representing private farms, sale yards, slaughter facilities and county or state fairs. Although sale yards represented less than 2% of the premises (nodes), 60% of the movements were to or from a sale yard. The network showed an overall density of 0.4%, a clustering coefficient of 14.6% and a betweenness centralization index of 12.7%, reflecting the low connectivity of this cattle network. The degree distribution showed that 20% of nodes performed 90% of the movements. Farms were ranked based on the total risk score and divided into high, medium, and low risk groups based on the score and its variability. The higher risk group included 14% (n=50) of the farms, corresponding to 80% of the cumulative risk for the farms in the bTB area. This analysis provides a baseline description about the contact structure of cattle movements in an area previously infected with bTB and develops a framework for a targeted surveillance approach for bTB to support future surveillance decisions. PMID:25577678

  17. A moni-modelling approach to manage groundwater risk to pesticide leaching at regional scale.

    PubMed

    Di Guardo, Andrea; Finizio, Antonio

    2016-03-01

    Historically, the approach used to manage risk of chemical contamination of water bodies is based on the use of monitoring programmes, which provide a snapshot of the presence/absence of chemicals in water bodies. Monitoring is required in the current EU regulations, such as the Water Framework Directive (WFD), as a tool to record temporal variation in the chemical status of water bodies. More recently, a number of models have been developed and used to forecast chemical contamination of water bodies. These models combine information of chemical properties, their use, and environmental scenarios. Both approaches are useful for risk assessors in decision processes. However, in our opinion, both show flaws and strengths when taken alone. This paper proposes an integrated approach (moni-modelling approach) where monitoring data and modelling simulations work together in order to provide a common decision framework for the risk assessor. This approach would be very useful, particularly for the risk management of pesticides at a territorial level. It fulfils the requirement of the recent Sustainable Use of Pesticides Directive. In fact, the moni-modelling approach could be used to identify sensible areas where implement mitigation measures or limitation of use of pesticides, but even to effectively re-design future monitoring networks or to better calibrate the pedo-climatic input data for the environmental fate models. A case study is presented, where the moni-modelling approach is applied in Lombardy region (North of Italy) to identify groundwater vulnerable areas to pesticides. The approach has been applied to six active substances with different leaching behaviour, in order to highlight the advantages in using the proposed methodology. PMID:26747983

  18. CONSIDERATIONS FOR DEVELOPING A DOSIMETRY-BASED CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT APPROACH FOR MIXTURES OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONTAMINANTS (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This final report, Considerations for Developing a Dosimetry-Based Cumulative Risk Assessment Approach for Mixtures of Environmental Contaminants, addresses the justification for developing physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for cumulative risk assessment....

  19. Alday-Maldacena Duality and AdS Plateau Problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morozov, A.

    A short summary of approximate approach to the study of minimal surfaces in AdS, based on solving Nambu-Goto equations iteratively. Today, after partial denunciation of the BDS conjecture, this looks like the only constructive approach to understanding the ways of its possible modification and thus to saving the Alday-Maldacena duality. Numerous open technical problems are explicitly formulated throughout the text.

  20. Development of a risk-based approach to Hanford Site cleanup

    SciTech Connect

    Hesser, W.A.; Daling, P.M.; Baynes, P.A.

    1995-06-01

    In response to a request from Mr. Thomas Grumbly, Assistant Secretary of Energy for Environmental Management, the Hanford Site contractors developed a conceptual set of risk-based cleanup strategies that (1) protect the public, workers, and environment from unacceptable risks; (2) are executable technically; and (3) fit within an expected annual funding profile of 1.05 billion dollars. These strategies were developed because (1) the US Department of Energy and Hanford Site budgets are being reduced, (2) stakeholders are dissatisfied with the perceived rate of cleanup, (3) the US Congress and the US Department of Energy are increasingly focusing on risk and riskreduction activities, (4) the present strategy is not integrated across the Site and is inconsistent in its treatment of similar hazards, (5) the present cleanup strategy is not cost-effective from a risk-reduction or future land use perspective, and (6) the milestones and activities in the Tri-Party Agreement cannot be achieved with an anticipated funding of 1.05 billion dollars annually. The risk-based strategies described herein were developed through a systems analysis approach that (1) analyzed the cleanup mission; (2) identified cleanup objectives, including risk reduction, land use, and mortgage reduction; (3) analyzed the existing baseline cleanup strategy from a cost and risk perspective; (4) developed alternatives for accomplishing the cleanup mission; (5) compared those alternatives against cleanup objectives; and (6) produced conclusions and recommendations regarding the current strategy and potential risk-based strategies.

  1. Review of ecological-based risk management approaches used at five Army Superfund sites.

    PubMed

    Poucher, Sherri L; Tracey, Gregory A; Johnson, Mark S; Haines, Laurie B

    2012-04-01

    Factors used in environmental remedial decision making concerning ecological risk are not well understood or necessarily consistent. Recent Records of Decision (RODs) for Army CERCLA sites were reviewed to select case studies where remedial management occurred in response to ecological risks. Thirty-four Army RODs were evaluated representing decisions promulgated between 1996 and 2004. Five were selected based on assessments that remedial actions were clearly linked to concern for ecological receptors. The Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) approach and the subsequent risk management process were reviewed for each site. The case studies demonstrated that the ERA findings, as well as critical management decisions regarding interpretation of identified ecological risks, were determinants of remedial action objectives. Decisions regarding the selection of remedial alternatives were based on a set of criteria prescribed by Superfund requirements and guidance. Remedial alternative evaluations require protection of human health and the environment, but protective conditions were determined using different methods at each site. Examining the remedial management process for the 5 case study sites revealed that uncertainty in the risk assessment and decisions regarding appropriate spatial scales for both risk assessment and remediation were important factors influencing remedial action decisions. The case reviews also revealed that levels of documentation were variable from site to site. In the future, more detailed documentation of decision criteria and the development of criteria that consider the resilience of the site will result in more technically defensible ecological risk management. PMID:22025287

  2. Risk management: FIFA's approach for protecting the health of football players

    PubMed Central

    Fuller, Colin W; Junge, Astrid; Dvorak, Jiri

    2012-01-01

    Background Sport and exercise have long-term health benefits, but there is also a risk that participants will sustain injuries and/or ill health from these activities. For this reason, international sports governing bodies have a responsibility to identify the risks that exist within their sport and to provide guidance to participants and other stakeholders on how these risks can be controlled within acceptable levels. Purpose To demonstrate how Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), as football's governing body, uses a risk management framework to identify, quantify, mitigate and communicate the risks of injury and ill health in football for men, women and children in all environments. Method All the research papers published by FIFA's Medical Assessment and Research Centre (F-MARC) during the period 1994 to 2011 were reviewed and categorised according to an established sport-related risk management framework. Conclusions F-MARC investigated and mitigated 17 areas of risk to footballers' health in a coherent and consistent approach through the process of risk management. PMID:22143999

  3. Determining the familial risk distribution of colorectal cancer: a data mining approach.

    PubMed

    Chau, Rowena; Jenkins, Mark A; Buchanan, Daniel D; Ait Ouakrim, Driss; Giles, Graham G; Casey, Graham; Gallinger, Steven; Haile, Robert W; Le Marchand, Loic; Newcomb, Polly A; Lindor, Noralane M; Hopper, John L; Win, Aung Ko

    2016-04-01

    This study was aimed to characterize the distribution of colorectal cancer risk using family history of cancers by data mining. Family histories for 10,066 colorectal cancer cases recruited to population cancer registries of the Colon Cancer Family Registry were analyzed using a data mining framework. A novel index was developed to quantify familial cancer aggregation. Artificial neural network was used to identify distinct categories of familial risk. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of colorectal cancer were calculated for each category. We identified five major, and 66 minor categories of familial risk for developing colorectal cancer. The distribution the major risk categories were: (1) 7% of families (SIR = 7.11; 95% CI 6.65-7.59) had a strong family history of colorectal cancer; (2) 13% of families (SIR = 2.94; 95% CI 2.78-3.10) had a moderate family history of colorectal cancer; (3) 11% of families (SIR = 1.23; 95% CI 1.12-1.36) had a strong family history of breast cancer and a weak family history of colorectal cancer; (4) 9 % of families (SIR = 1.06; 95 % CI 0.96-1.18) had strong family history of prostate cancer and weak family history of colorectal cancer; and (5) 60% of families (SIR = 0.61; 95% CI 0.57-0.65) had a weak family history of all cancers. There is a wide variation of colorectal cancer risk that can be categorized by family history of cancer, with a strong gradient of colorectal cancer risk between the highest and lowest risk categories. The risk of colorectal cancer for people with the highest risk category of family history (7% of the population) was 12-times that for people in the lowest risk category (60%) of the population. Data mining was proven an effective approach for gaining insight into the underlying cancer aggregation patterns and for categorizing familial risk of colorectal cancer. PMID:26681340

  4. An approach towards a parameterised model for risk assessment of hydraulic fracturing operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gläser, Dennis; Class, Holger; Kissinger, Alexander; Beck, Martin

    2016-04-01

    The main ambition of the recently started research project FracRisk (funded within the EU Horizon 2020 programme) is the development of a comprehensive knowledge base and the formulation of scientific recommendations, which can contribute to efforts aimed at minimising the environmental footprint of shale gas production while addressing scientific and public concerns. Forward numerical modelling linked to a detailed risk and uncertainty assessment is applied for estimating the mechanical, hydromechanical, and geochemical consequences resulting from hydraulic fracturing. To capture a broad range of environmental risks, six exemplary scenarios focussing on different physical processes on different spatial and temporal scales are investigated. An approach regarding sources, pathways and targets is used for the quantification of the environmental impacts. A fundamental understanding of the potential risks is achieved by allowing for mutual feedback between the scenarios, identifying key parameters and processes. The coupling of the scenarios to a Polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) paves the way to an abstracted and parameterised model for risk assessment to be used both by regulators and contractors. This contribution at an early stage of the project will elaborate on the general workflow of implementing focussed scenarios into a PCE-based Monte-Carlo approach to parameter sensitivities, that will eventually be embedded into a FEP-based (features, events, processes) evaluation of risk and counteractive measures.

  5. Risk-based approach for controlling beryllium exposure in a manufacturing environment

    SciTech Connect

    Gilmore, W. E.; Clawson, C. D.; Ellis, K. K.

    2003-01-01

    There are many diverse uses for beryllium in both military and industrial applications. Unfortunately, there are certain worker health risks associated with the manufacture and production of beryllium products. Respiratory illnesses due to prolonged contact with beryllium particulate are of paramount concern. However, these health risks can be controlled provided that the appropriate protective measures to prevent worker exposure from beryllium are in place. But it is no1 always a straightforward process to identify exactly what the beryllium protective measures should be in order to realize a true risk savings. Without prudent attention to a systematic inquiry and suitable evaluative criteria, a program for controlling beryllium health risks can be lacking in completeness and overall effectiveness. One approach that took into account the necessary ingredients for risk-based determination of beryllium protective measures was developed for a beryllium operation at a Department of Energy (DOE) facility. The methodological framework that was applied at this facility, as well as a discussion of the final beryllium protective measures that were determined by this approach will be presented. Regulatory aspects for working with beryllium, as well as a risk-assessment strategy for ranking beryllium-handling activities with respect to exposure potential will also be discussed. The presentation will conclude with a synopsis of lessons-learned as gleaned from this case study, as well as providing the participants with a constructive blueprint that can be adapted to other processes involving beryllium.

  6. A Risk and Standards Based Approach to Quality Assurance in Australia's Diverse Higher Education Sector

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Australian Government Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency, 2015

    2015-01-01

    The Australian Government Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency's (TEQSA's) role is to assure that quality standards are being met by all registered higher education providers. This paper explains how TEQSA's risk-based approach to assuring higher education standards is applied in broad terms to a diverse sector. This explanation is…

  7. A systematic risk management approach employed on the CloudSat project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basilio, R. R.; Plourde, K. S.; Lam, T.

    2000-01-01

    The CloudSat Project has developed a simplified approach for fault tree analysis and probabilistic risk assessment. A system-level fault tree has been constructed to identify credible fault scenarios and failure modes leading up to a potential failure to meet the nominal mission success criteria.

  8. APPLICATION OF A TIERED SURROGATE APPROACH TO IDENTIFY TOXICITY SURROGATES FOR HUMAN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    APPLICATION OF A TIERED SURROGATE APPROACH TO IDENTIFY TOXICITY SURROGATES FOR HUMAN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT. P.R. Dodmane1, L.E. Lizarraga1, J.P. Kaiser2, S.C. Wesselkamper2, Q.J. Zhao2. 1ORISE Participant, U.S. EPA, National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA), Cincinnati...

  9. Gendered Perspectives about Water Risks and Policy Strategies: A Tripartite Conceptual Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larson, Kelli L.; Ibes, Dorothy C.; White, Dave D.

    2011-01-01

    Previous research has examined gendered perspectives on a variety of environmental risks. Mixed results complicate the ability to make generalizations about human-ecological judgments, largely because of the use of inconsistent conceptual and methodological approaches in previous work. Following the tripartite model, we examine differences between…

  10. Application of Computational Toxicological Approaches in Supporting Human Health Risk Assessment, Project Summary

    EPA Science Inventory

    Summary

    This project has three parts. The first part focuses on developing a tiered strategy and applying computational toxicological approaches to support human health risk assessment by deriving a surrogate point-of-departure (e.g., NOAEL, LOAEL, etc.) using a test c...

  11. The Baby TALK Model: An Innovative Approach to Identifying High-Risk Children and Families

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Villalpando, Aimee Hilado; Leow, Christine; Hornstein, John

    2012-01-01

    This research report examines the Baby TALK model, an innovative early childhood intervention approach used to identify, recruit, and serve young children who are at-risk for developmental delays, mental health needs, and/or school failure, and their families. The report begins with a description of the model. This description is followed by an…

  12. Mitigating Real or Perceived Risks: A Pro-Active Approach for Dealing with Naysayers and Critics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schutte, Bart; Jones, Kevin

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews an approach to mitigating real or perceived risks from "Naysayers" and critics in developing and using the software tools available with web 2.0. Some of the issues are about the use of the tools, the ability of management to control the use of these tools, privacy issues and the time the people spend using these tools.

  13. The STD and HIV Epidemics in African American Youth: Reconceptualizing Approaches to Risk Reduction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, Kim S.; Boyer, Cherrie B.; Cotton, Garnette

    2004-01-01

    Sexually transmitted infections, including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), disproportionately affect African American adolescents and young adults. Many of our current strategies and approaches have been inadequate in the promotion of risk reduction among youth and need to be reconceptualized. This article identifies issues that may guide…

  14. DEVELOPING MECHANISTIC DATA FOR INCORPORATION INTO CANCER AND GENETIC RISK ASSESSMENTS: OLD PROBLEMS AND NEW APPROACHES

    EPA Science Inventory

    26th Lauriston S. Taylor Lecture
    DEVELOPING MECHANISTIC DATA FOR INCORPORATION INTO CANCER AND
    GENETIC RISK ASSESSMENTS: OLD PROBLEMS AND NEW APPROACHES
    R. Julian Preston, Environmental Carcinogenesis Division, U.S. Environmental Protection
    Agency, NHEERL, Research Tr...

  15. All AdS7 solutions of type II supergravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Apruzzi, Fabio; Fazzi, Marco; Rosa, Dario; Tomasiello, Alessandro

    2014-04-01

    In M-theory, the only AdS7 supersymmetric solutions are AdS7 × S 4 and its orbifolds. In this paper, we find and classify new supersymmetric solutions of the type AdS7 × M 3 in type II supergravity. While in IIB none exist, in IIA with Romans mass (which does not lift to M-theory) there are many new ones. We use a pure spinor approach reminiscent of generalized complex geometry. Without the need for any Ansatz, the system determines uniquely the form of the metric and fluxes, up to solving a system of ODEs. Namely, the metric on M 3 is that of an S 2 fibered over an interval; this is consistent with the Sp(1) R-symmetry of the holographically dual (1,0) theory. By including D8 brane sources, one can numerically obtain regular solutions, where topologically M 3 ≅ S 3.

  16. Scattering States in AdS/CFT

    SciTech Connect

    Fitzpatrick, A.Liam; Kaplan, Jared; /SLAC

    2012-02-14

    We show that suitably regulated multi-trace primary states in large N CFTs behave like 'in' and 'out' scattering states in the flat-space limit of AdS. Their transition matrix elements approach the exact scattering amplitudes for the bulk theory, providing a natural CFT definition of the flat space S-Matrix. We study corrections resulting from the AdS curvature and particle propagation far from the center of AdS, and show that AdS simply provides an IR regulator that disappears in the flat space limit.

  17. Map Your Hazards! - an Interdisciplinary, Place-Based Educational Approach to Assessing Natural Hazards, Social Vulnerability, Risk and Risk Perception.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brand, B. D.; McMullin-Messier, P. A.; Schlegel, M. E.

    2014-12-01

    'Map your Hazards' is an educational module developed within the NSF Interdisciplinary Teaching about Earth for a Sustainable Future program (InTeGrate). The module engages students in place-based explorations of natural hazards, social vulnerability, and the perception of natural hazards and risk. Students integrate geoscience and social science methodologies to (1) identify and assess hazards, vulnerability and risk within their communities; (2) distribute, collect and evaluate survey data (designed by authors) on the knowledge, risk perception and preparedness within their social networks; and (3) deliver a PPT presentation to local stakeholders detailing their findings and recommendations for development of a prepared, resilient community. 'Map your Hazards' underwent four rigorous assessments by a team of geoscience educators and external review before being piloted in our classrooms. The module was piloted in a 300-level 'Volcanoes and Society' course at Boise State University, a 300-level 'Environmental Sociology' course at Central Washington University, and a 100-level 'Natural Disasters and Environmental Geology' course at the College of Western Idaho. In all courses students reported a fascination with learning about the hazards around them and identifying the high risk areas in their communities. They were also surprised at the low level of knowledge, inaccurate risk perception and lack of preparedness of their social networks. This successful approach to engaging students in an interdisciplinary, place-based learning environment also has the broad implications of raising awareness of natural hazards (survey participants are provided links to local hazard and preparedness information). The data and preparedness suggestions can be shared with local emergency managers, who are encouraged to attend the student's final presentations. All module materials are published at serc.carleton.edu/integrate/ and are appropriate to a wide range of classrooms.

  18. Credit risk and the instability of the financial system: An ensemble approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmitt, Thilo A.; Chetalova, Desislava; Schäfer, Rudi; Guhr, Thomas

    2014-02-01

    The instability of the financial system as experienced in recent years and in previous periods is often linked to credit defaults, i.e., to the failure of obligors to make promised payments. Given the large number of credit contracts, this problem is amenable to be treated with approaches developed in statistical physics. We introduce the idea of ensemble averaging and thereby uncover generic features of credit risk. We then show that the often advertised concept of diversification, i.e., reducing the risk by distributing it, is deeply flawed when it comes to credit risk. The risk of extreme losses remains due to the ever present correlations, implying a substantial and persistent intrinsic danger to the financial system.

  19. Identifying Risk and Protective Factors in Recidivist Juvenile Offenders: A Decision Tree Approach.

    PubMed

    Ortega-Campos, Elena; García-García, Juan; Gil-Fenoy, Maria José; Zaldívar-Basurto, Flor

    2016-01-01

    Research on juvenile justice aims to identify profiles of risk and protective factors in juvenile offenders. This paper presents a study of profiles of risk factors that influence young offenders toward committing sanctionable antisocial behavior (S-ASB). Decision tree analysis is used as a multivariate approach to the phenomenon of repeated sanctionable antisocial behavior in juvenile offenders in Spain. The study sample was made up of the set of juveniles who were charged in a court case in the Juvenile Court of Almeria (Spain). The period of study of recidivism was two years from the baseline. The object of study is presented, through the implementation of a decision tree. Two profiles of risk and protective factors are found. Risk factors associated with higher rates of recidivism are antisocial peers, age at baseline S-ASB, problems in school and criminality in family members. PMID:27611313

  20. An approach to incorporate risks into a product`s life-cycle assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Pirhonen, P.

    1995-12-31

    Life-cycle assessment is usually based on regular discharges that occur at a more or less constant rate. Nevertheless, the more factors that are taken into account in the LCA the better picture it gives on the environmental aspects of a product. In this study an approach to incorporate accidental releases into a products` life-cycle assessment was developed. In this approach accidental releases are divided into two categories. The first category consists of those unplanned releases which occur with a predicted level and frequency. Due to the high frequency and small release size at a time, these accidental releases can be compared to continuous emissions. Their global impacts are studied in this approach. Accidental releases of the second category are sudden, unplanned releases caused by exceptional situations, e.g. technical failure, action error or disturbances in process conditions. These releases have a singular character and local impacts are typical of them. As far as the accidental releases of the second category are concerned, the approach introduced in this study results in a risk value for every stage of a life-cycle, the sum of which is a risk value for the whole life-cycle. Risk value is based on occurrence frequencies of incidents and potential environmental damage caused by releases. Risk value illustrates the level of potential damage caused by accidental releases related to the system under study and is meant to be used for comparison of these levels of two different products. It can also be used to compare the risk levels of different stages of the life-cycle. An approach was illustrated using petrol as an example product. The whole life-cycle of petrol from crude oil production to the consumption of petrol was studied.

  1. Interventionist and participatory approaches to flood risk mitigation decisions: two case studies in the Italian Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bianchizza, C.; Del Bianco, D.; Pellizzoni, L.; Scolobig, A.

    2012-04-01

    Flood risk mitigation decisions pose key challenges not only from a technical but also from a social, economic and political viewpoint. There is an increasing demand for improving the quality of these processes by including different stakeholders - and especially by involving the local residents in the decision making process - and by guaranteeing the actual improvement of local social capacities during and after the decision making. In this paper we analyse two case studies of flood risk mitigation decisions, Malborghetto-Valbruna and Vipiteno-Sterzing, in the Italian Alps. In both of them, mitigation works have been completed or planned, yet following completely different approaches especially in terms of responses of residents and involvement of local authorities. In Malborghetto-Valbruna an 'interventionist' approach (i.e. leaning towards a top down/technocratic decision process) was used to make decisions after the flood event that affected the municipality in the year 2003. In Vipiteno-Sterzing, a 'participatory' approach (i.e. leaning towards a bottom-up/inclusive decision process) was applied: decisions about risk mitigation measures were made by submitting different projects to the local citizens and by involving them in the decision making process. The analysis of the two case studies presented in the paper is grounded on the results of two research projects. Structured and in-depth interviews, as well as questionnaire surveys were used to explore residents' and local authorities' orientations toward flood risk mitigation. Also a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) involving key stakeholders was used to better understand the characteristics of the communities and their perception of flood risk mitigation issues. The results highlight some key differences between interventionist and participatory approaches, together with some implications of their adoption in the local context. Strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches

  2. The Added-Value of Using Participatory Approaches to Assess the Acceptability of Surveillance Systems: The Case of Bovine Tuberculosis in Belgium

    PubMed Central

    Calba, Clémentine; Goutard, Flavie Luce; Vanholme, Luc; Antoine-Moussiaux, Nicolas; Hendrikx, Pascal; Saegerman, Claude

    2016-01-01

    added value of the participatory approach was highlighted. PMID:27462705

  3. Approach to the health-risk management on municipal reclaimed water reused in landscape water system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, X.; Li, J.; Liu, W.

    2008-12-01

    Water pollution and water heavily shortage are both main environmental conflicts in China. Reclaimed water reuse is an important approach to lessen water pollution and solve the water shortage crisis in the city. The heath risk of reclaimed water has become the focus of the public. It is impending to evaluate the health risk of reclaimed water with risk assessment technique. Considering the ways of the reclaimed water reused, it is studied that health risk produced by toxic pollutants and pathogenic microbes in the processes of reclaimed water reused in landscape water system. The pathogenic microbes monitoring techniques in wastewater and reclaimed water are discussed and the hygienic indicators, risk assessment methods, concentration limitations of pathogenic microbes for various reclaimed water uses are studied. The principle of health risk assessment is used to research the exposure level and the health risk of concerned people in a wastewater reuse project where the reclaimed water is applied for green area irrigation in a public park in Beijing. The exposure assessment method and model of various reclaimed water uses are built combining with Beijing reclaimed water project. Firstly the daily ingesting dose and lifetime average daily dose(LADD) of exposure people are provided via field work and monitoring analysis, which could be used in health risk assessment as quantitative reference. The result shows that the main risk comes from the pathology pollutants, the toxic pollutants, the eutrophication pollutants, pathogenic microbes and the secondary pollutants when municipal wastewater is reclaimed for landscape water. The major water quality limited should include pathogenic microbes, toxic pollutants, and heavy metals. Keywords: municipal wastewater, reclaimed water, landscape water, health risk

  4. GAIA - A Systems Approach to Manage Climate Disruption Risks in Public Health and Security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fountain, G. H.; Paxton, L. J.; Weiss, M.; Babin, S. M.; Bos, N.; Nix, M.; Parker, C. L.; Pikas, C. K.; Romeo, G.; Schaefer, R. K.; Simpkins, S.; Strong, S. B.; Sultanik, E.; Swartz, W. H.

    2011-12-01

    Numerous studies and task forces have noted that projected climate disruption poses a serious threat to America's national security as it creates and amplifies instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world. The big question is, how to transfer the knowledge about climate change into an assessment of impacts, so that decision makers can properly manage risk. This is a problem suited for a system engineering approach and is being implemented through the GAIA (Global Assimilation of Information for Action) project. Here we will discuss elements of the GAIA approach and how it could be used, giving examples for a range of issues. In particular, the GAIA project can use strategic simulations and analysis as unique tools to help decision makers get a deeper understanding of the problem space and how risk can be better managed using different approaches.

  5. An Evidenced-Based Approach for Estimating Decompression Sickness Risk in Aircraft Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robinson, Ronald R.; Dervay, Joseph P.; Conkin, Johnny

    1999-01-01

    Estimating the risk of decompression Sickness (DCS) in aircraft operations remains a challenge, making the reduction of this risk through the development of operationally acceptable denitrogenation schedules difficult. In addition, the medical recommendations which are promulgated are often not supported by rigorous evaluation of the available data, but are instead arrived at by negotiation with the aircraft operations community, are adapted from other similar aircraft operations, or are based upon the opinion of the local medical community. We present a systematic approach for defining DCS risk in aircraft operations by analyzing the data available for a specific aircraft, flight profile, and aviator population. Once the risk of DCS in a particular aircraft operation is known, appropriate steps can be taken to reduce this risk to a level acceptable to the applicable aviation community. Using this technique will allow any aviation medical community to arrive at the best estimate of DCS risk for its specific mission and aviator population and will allow systematic reevaluation of the decisions regarding DCS risk reduction when additional data are available.

  6. Monitoring schistosomiasis risk in East China over space and time using a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Hu, Yi; Ward, Michael P; Xia, Congcong; Li, Rui; Sun, Liqian; Lynn, Henry; Gao, Fenghua; Wang, Qizhi; Zhang, Shiqing; Xiong, Chenglong; Zhang, Zhijie; Jiang, Qingwu

    2016-01-01

    Schistosomiasis remains a major public health problem and causes substantial economic impact in east China, particularly along the Yangtze River Basin. Disease forecasting and surveillance can assist in the development and implementation of more effective intervention measures to control disease. In this study, we applied a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model to describe trends in schistosomiasis risk in Anhui Province, China, using annual parasitological and environmental data for the period 1997-2010. A computationally efficient approach-Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation-was used for model inference. A zero-inflated, negative binomial model best described the spatio-temporal dynamics of schistosomiasis risk. It predicted that the disease risk would generally be low and stable except for some specific, local areas during the period 2011-2014. High-risk counties were identified in the forecasting maps: three in which the risk remained high, and two in which risk would become high. The results indicated that schistosomiasis risk has been reduced to consistently low levels throughout much of this region of China; however, some counties were identified in which progress in schistosomiasis control was less than satisfactory. Whilst maintaining overall control, specific interventions in the future should focus on these refractive counties as part of a strategy to eliminate schistosomiasis from this region. PMID:27053447

  7. Review of NASA approach to space radiation risk assessments for Mars exploration.

    PubMed

    Cucinotta, Francis A

    2015-02-01

    Long duration space missions present unique radiation protection challenges due to the complexity of the space radiation environment, which includes high charge and energy particles and other highly ionizing radiation such as neutrons. Based on a recommendation by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements, a 3% lifetime risk of exposure-induced death for cancer has been used as a basis for risk limitation by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for low-Earth orbit missions. NASA has developed a risk-based approach to radiation exposure limits that accounts for individual factors (age, gender, and smoking history) and assesses the uncertainties in risk estimates. New radiation quality factors with associated probability distribution functions to represent the quality factor's uncertainty have been developed based on track structure models and recent radiobiology data for high charge and energy particles. The current radiation dose limits are reviewed for spaceflight and the various qualitative and quantitative uncertainties that impact the risk of exposure-induced death estimates using the NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model. NSCR estimates of the number of "safe days" in deep space to be within exposure limits and risk estimates for a Mars exploration mission are described. PMID:25551493

  8. A quantitative approach for integrating multiple lines of evidence for the evaluation of environmental health risks

    PubMed Central

    Schleier III, Jerome J.; Marshall, Lucy A.; Davis, Ryan S.

    2015-01-01

    Decision analysis often considers multiple lines of evidence during the decision making process. Researchers and government agencies have advocated for quantitative weight-of-evidence approaches in which multiple lines of evidence can be considered when estimating risk. Therefore, we utilized Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo to integrate several human-health risk assessment, biomonitoring, and epidemiology studies that have been conducted for two common insecticides (malathion and permethrin) used for adult mosquito management to generate an overall estimate of risk quotient (RQ). The utility of the Bayesian inference for risk management is that the estimated risk represents a probability distribution from which the probability of exceeding a threshold can be estimated. The mean RQs after all studies were incorporated were 0.4386, with a variance of 0.0163 for malathion and 0.3281 with a variance of 0.0083 for permethrin. After taking into account all of the evidence available on the risks of ULV insecticides, the probability that malathion or permethrin would exceed a level of concern was less than 0.0001. Bayesian estimates can substantially improve decisions by allowing decision makers to estimate the probability that a risk will exceed a level of concern by considering seemingly disparate lines of evidence. PMID:25648367

  9. Environmental risk assessment of white phosphorus from the use of munitions - a probabilistic approach.

    PubMed

    Voie, Øyvind Albert; Johnsen, Arnt; Strømseng, Arnljot; Longva, Kjetil Sager

    2010-03-15

    White phosphorus (P(4)) is a highly toxic compound used in various pyrotechnic products. Ammunitions containing P(4) are widely used in military training areas where the unburned products of P(4) contaminate soil and local ponds. Traditional risk assessment methods presuppose a homogeneous spatial distribution of pollutants. The distribution of P(4) in military training areas is heterogeneous, which reduces the probability of potential receptors being exposed to the P(4) by ingestion, for example. The current approach to assess the environmental risk from the use of P(4) suggests a Bayesian network (Bn) as a risk assessment tool. The probabilistic reasoning supported by a Bn allows us to take into account the heterogeneous distribution of P(4). Furthermore, one can combine empirical data and expert knowledge, which allows the inclusion of all kinds of data that are relevant to the problem. The current work includes an example of the use of the Bn as a risk assessment tool where the risk for P(4) poisoning in humans and grazing animals at a military shooting range in Northern Norway was calculated. P(4) was detected in several craters on the range at concentrations up to 5.7g/kg. The risk to human health was considered acceptable under the current land use. The risk for grazing animals such as sheep, however, was higher, suggesting that precautionary measures may be advisable. PMID:20092876

  10. A strategic analysis study-based approach to integrated risk assessment: Occupational health risks from environmental restoration and waste management activities at Hanford

    SciTech Connect

    Mahaffey, J.A.; Doctor, P.G.; Buschbom, R.L.; Glantz, C.S.; Daling, P.M.; Sever, L.E.; Vargo, G.J. Jr.; Strachan, D.M. ); Pajunen, A.L.; Hoyt, R.C.; Ludowise, J.D. )

    1993-06-01

    The goal of environmental restoration and waste management activities is to reduce public health risks or to delay risks to the future when new technology will be available for improved cleanup solutions. Actions to remediate the wastes on the Hanford Site will entail risks to workers, the public, and the environment that do not currently exist. In some circumstances, remediation activities will create new exposure pathways that are not present without cleanup activities. In addition, cleanup actions will redistribute existing health risks over time and space, and will likely shift health risks to cleanup workers in the short term. This report describes an approach to occupational risk assessment based on the Hanford Strategic Analysis Study and illustrates the approach by comparing worker risks for two options for remediation of N/K fuels, a subcategory of unprocessed irradiated fuels at Hanford.

  11. New screening approach for risk assessment of pesticides in ambient air

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yusà, Vicent; Coscollà, Clara; Millet, Maurice

    2014-10-01

    We present a novel screening approach for inhalation risk assessment of currently used pesticides (CUPs) in ambient air, based on the measurements of pesticide levels in the inhalable fraction of the particulate matter (PM10). Total concentrations in ambient air (gas + particle phases) were estimated using a theoretical model of distribution of semi-volatile organic compounds between the gas and the particulate phase based on the octanol-air partition (Koa) of each pesticide. The proposed approach was used in a pilot study conducted in a rural station in Valencia (Spain) from April through to October 2010. Twenty out of 82 analysed pesticides were detected in average concentrations ranging from 1.63 to 117.01 pg m-3. For adults, children and infants the estimated chronic inhalation risk, expressed as Hazard Quotient (HQ) was <1 for all pesticides. Likewise, the cumulative exposure for detected organophosphorus, pyrethroids and carbamates pesticides, was estimated using as metrics the Hazard Index (HI), which was less than 1 for the three families of pesticides assessed. The cancer risk estimated for the detected pesticides classified as Likely or Possible carcinogens was less than 1.15E-7 for infants. In our opinion, the screening approach proposed could be used in the monitoring and risk assessment of pesticides in ambient air.

  12. Risk Assessment of Groundwater Contamination: A Multilevel Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Approach Based on DRASTIC Model

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yan; Zhong, Ming

    2013-01-01

    Groundwater contamination is a serious threat to water supply. Risk assessment of groundwater contamination is an effective way to protect the safety of groundwater resource. Groundwater is a complex and fuzzy system with many uncertainties, which is impacted by different geological and hydrological factors. In order to deal with the uncertainty in the risk assessment of groundwater contamination, we propose an approach with analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation integrated together. Firstly, the risk factors of groundwater contamination are identified by the sources-pathway-receptor-consequence method, and a corresponding index system of risk assessment based on DRASTIC model is established. Due to the complexity in the process of transitions between the possible pollution risks and the uncertainties of factors, the method of analysis hierarchy process is applied to determine the weights of each factor, and the fuzzy sets theory is adopted to calculate the membership degrees of each factor. Finally, a case study is presented to illustrate and test this methodology. It is concluded that the proposed approach integrates the advantages of both analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, which provides a more flexible and reliable way to deal with the linguistic uncertainty and mechanism uncertainty in groundwater contamination without losing important information. PMID:24453883

  13. A risk management approach to double-shell tank waste volume versus storage capacity

    SciTech Connect

    Coles, G.A.; Thurkow, T.J.; Fritz, R.L.; Nuhlestein, L.O.; Allen, M.R.; Stuart, R.J.

    1996-01-01

    A risk-based assessment of the overall waste volume versus double-shell tank storage capacity was conducted to develop fallback positions for projections where the waste volume was at a high risk of exceeding capacity. This study was initiated to provide that assessment. A working simulation model was the primary deliverable of this study. The model validates the approach and demonstrates that simulation analysis can provide a method of tracking uncertainties in available data, assessing probabilities, and serves as a tool to be used by management to determine the consequences of various off-normal occurrences.

  14. Evaluating the efficacy of a mental models approach for improving occupational chemical risk protection.

    PubMed

    Niewöhner, Jörg; Cox, Patrick; Gerrard, Simon; Pidgeon, Nick

    2004-04-01

    Chemical risk protection in the workplace relies partly on informing workers about possible risks using material safety data sheets (MSDS). This article reports on phase 2 of a project (phase 1 reported in Cox et al.), which employed a mental models approach to improve on data sheets as communicative interventions for perchloroethylene in dry cleaning and rosin-based solder flux in the electronics industry within small businesses in the United Kingdom (small enterprises (SEs) < 25 employees in the workplace). It focuses on the efficacy of a multimethod evaluation strategy to assess (1) the capacity of a mental models approach to yield contextually relevant data for intervention design and (2) the effectiveness of the strategy itself in validating the mental models data. The evaluation was conducted using postal questionnaires and semi-structured verbal protocols to provide responses to the alternative intervention content and to prioritize risk messages. User discussion groups were then employed, particularly as a means of establishing whether contextual information could be obtained that would differ qualitatively from the kind elicited through individual (semi) structured methods. We conclude that the mental models approach as part of an iterative process including systematic multimethod evaluation is successful in supporting the design of relevant communications to the users of chemicals. The overall viability of communicative interventions in the context of health and safety in small businesses remains in question. Future research might aim to develop a more holistic approach to interventions in complex occupational contexts. PMID:15078306

  15. Assessment of Yellow Fever Epidemic Risk: An Original Multi-criteria Modeling Approach

    PubMed Central

    Briand, Sylvie; Beresniak, Ariel; Nguyen, Tim; Yonli, Tajoua; Duru, Gerard; Kambire, Chantal; Perea, William

    2009-01-01

    Background Yellow fever (YF) virtually disappeared in francophone West African countries as a result of YF mass vaccination campaigns carried out between 1940 and 1953. However, because of the failure to continue mass vaccination campaigns, a resurgence of the deadly disease in many African countries began in the early 1980s. We developed an original modeling approach to assess YF epidemic risk (vulnerability) and to prioritize the populations to be vaccinated. Methods and Findings We chose a two-step assessment of vulnerability at district level consisting of a quantitative and qualitative assessment per country. Quantitative assessment starts with data collection on six risk factors: five risk factors associated with “exposure” to virus/vector and one with “susceptibility” of a district to YF epidemics. The multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) modeling method was specifically adapted to reduce the five exposure variables to one aggregated exposure indicator. Health districts were then projected onto a two-dimensional graph to define different levels of vulnerability. Districts are presented on risk maps for qualitative analysis in consensus groups, allowing the addition of factors, such as population migrations or vector density, that could not be included in MCA. The example of rural districts in Burkina Faso show five distinct clusters of risk profiles. Based on this assessment, 32 of 55 districts comprising over 7 million people were prioritized for preventive vaccination campaigns. Conclusion This assessment of yellow fever epidemic risk at the district level includes MCA modeling and consensus group modification. MCA provides a standardized way to reduce complexity. It supports an informed public health decision-making process that empowers local stakeholders through the consensus group. This original approach can be applied to any disease with documented risk factors. PMID:19597548

  16. Integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haer, Toon; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    Between 1998 and 2009, Europe suffered over 213 major damaging floods, causing 1126 deaths, displacing around half a million people. In this period, floods caused at least 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard faced in Europe. In many low-lying areas, the main strategy to cope with floods is to reduce the risk of the hazard through flood defence structures, like dikes and levees. However, it is suggested that part of the responsibility for flood protection needs to shift to households and businesses in areas at risk, and that governments and insurers can effectively stimulate the implementation of individual protective measures. However, adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction and the interaction between the government, insurers, and individuals has hardly been studied in large-scale flood risk assessments. In this study, an European Agent-Based Model is developed including agent representatives for the administrative stakeholders of European Member states, insurers and reinsurers markets, and individuals following complex behaviour models. The Agent-Based Modelling approach allows for an in-depth analysis of the interaction between heterogeneous autonomous agents and the resulting (non-)adaptive behaviour. Existing flood damage models are part of the European Agent-Based Model to allow for a dynamic response of both the agents and the environment to changing flood risk and protective efforts. By following an Agent-Based Modelling approach this study is a first contribution to overcome the limitations of traditional large-scale flood risk models in which the influence of individual adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction is often lacking.

  17. Preventable risk factors for noncommunicable diseases in rural Indonesia: prevalence study using WHO STEPS approach.

    PubMed Central

    Ng, Nawi; Stenlund, Hans; Bonita, Ruth; Hakimi, Mohammad; Wall, Stig; Weinehall, Lars

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To gain a better understanding of the health transition in Indonesia, we sought to describe the prevalence and distribution of risk factors for noncommunicable diseases and to identify the risk-factor burden among a rural population and an urban population. METHODS: Using the protocol of the WHO STEPwise approach to Surveillance (STEPS), risk factors for noncommunicable diseases were determined for 1502 men and 1461 women aged 15-74 years at the Purworejo Demographic Surveillance Site in 2001. FINDINGS: Smoking prevalence was high among men (913/1539; weighted percentage=53.9.%) in both rural and urban populations; it was almost non-existent among women. A higher proportion of the urban population and the richest quintile of the rural population had high blood pressure and were classified as being overweight or obese when compared with the poorest quintile of the rural population. Those classified as being in the richest quintile who lived in the rural area were 1.5 times more likely to have raised blood pressure and 8 times more likely to be overweight than those classified as being in the poorest quintile and living in the rural area. Clustering of risk factors was higher among those classified as being in the richest quintile of those living in the rural area compared with those classified as being in the poorest quintile; and the risks of clustering were just 20-30% lower compared with the urban population. CONCLUSION: Both the rural and urban populations in Purworejo face an unequally distributed burden of risk factors for noncommunicable diseases. The burden among the most well-off group in the rural area has already reached a level similar to that found in the urban area. The implementation of the WHO STEPS approach was feasible, and it provides a comprehensive picture of the burden of risk factors, allowing appropriate health interventions to be implemented to address health inequities. PMID:16628304

  18. Cardiovascular risk prediction: a comparative study of Framingham and quantum neural network based approach

    PubMed Central

    Narain, Renu; Saxena, Sanjai; Goyal, Achal Kumar

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Currently cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the main cause of death worldwide. Disease risk estimates can be used as prognostic information and support for treating CVDs. The commonly used Framingham risk score (FRS) for CVD prediction is outdated for the modern population, so FRS may not be accurate enough. In this paper, a novel CVD prediction system based on machine learning is proposed. Methods This study has been conducted with the data of 689 patients showing symptoms of CVD. Furthermore, the dataset of 5,209 CVD patients of the famous Framingham study has been used for validation purposes. Each patient’s parameters have been analyzed by physicians in order to make a diagnosis. The proposed system uses the quantum neural network for machine learning. This system learns and recognizes the pattern of CVD. The proposed system has been experimentally evaluated and compared with FRS. Results During testing, patients’ data in combination with the doctors’ diagnosis (predictions) are used for evaluation and validation. The proposed system achieved 98.57% accuracy in predicting the CVD risk. The CVD risk predictions by the proposed system, using the dataset of the Framingham study, confirmed the potential risk of death, deaths which actually occurred and had been recorded as due to myocardial infarction and coronary heart disease in the dataset of the Framingham study. The accuracy of the proposed system is significantly higher than FRS and other existing approaches. Conclusion The proposed system will serve as an excellent tool for a medical practitioner in predicting the risk of CVD. This system will be serving as an aid to medical practitioners for planning better medication and treatment strategies. An early diagnosis may be effectively made by using this system. An overall accuracy of 98.57% has been achieved in predicting the risk level. The accuracy is considerably higher compared to the other existing approaches. Thus, this system must be used

  19. Risk Factors for Overweight/Obesity in Preschool Children: An Ecological Approach

    PubMed Central

    McBride, Brent A.; Fiese, Barbara H.; Jones, Blake L.; Cho, Hyunkeun

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Background Identification of risk factors is critical to preventing the childhood obesity epidemic. Risk factors that contribute to obesity are multifactorial. However, limited research has focused on identifying obesity risk factors using an ecological approach. Methods Baseline self-report survey data from the STRONG Kids program were used. The sample consisted of 329 parent-child dyads recruited from childcare programs in east-central Illinois. Child height and weight were measured and converted to age- and sex-specific z-scores using standard growth charts. An ecological model provided the theoretical framework for the selection of 22 previously reported childhood obesity risk factors. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to identify risk factors. Results Of 22 potential risk factors, three were found to be significantly associated with child overweight/obesity. These included child nighttime sleep duration (χ2=8.56; p=0.003), parent BMI (χ2=5.62; p=0.01), and parental restrictive feeding for weight control (χ2=4.77; p=0.02). Children who slept for 8 hours and less were 2.2 times more likely to be overweight/obese [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3–3.7), whereas children with an overweight/obese parent were 1.9 times more likely to be overweight/obese (95% CI: 1.12–3.2). Finally, children whose parents used restrictive feeding practices were 1.75 times more likely to be overweight/obese (95% CI: 1.06–2.9). Conclusions Using an ecological approach, we conclude that childhood obesity prevention efforts may benefit from targeting the key risk factors of child sleep duration, parent BMI, and parental restrictive feeding practices as focus areas for obesity prevention. PMID:24020790

  20. A geomorphological mapping approach for the assessment of seabed geohazards and risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hough, Gayle; Green, Jennifer; Fish, Paul; Mills, Andy; Moore, Roger

    2011-03-01

    Exploration and development of offshore hydrocarbon resources has advanced into remote deepwater regions over the last decade and poses significant technical challenges for the design and installation of wells and facilities at extreme water depths. Seafloor and shallow subsurface processes and conditions in these areas are complex and generally poorly understood, and the geohazards to development are larger scale and fundamentally different to those encountered onshore; consequently the geohazard risk to deepwater development projects is potentially significant and requires careful evaluation and mitigation during the front-end planning and engineering design stages of projects. There are no established industry standards or methods for the assessment of geohazards and engineering-quality geophysical data at the scale of development. The paper describes an integrated and systematic map-based approach for the assessment and mitigation of seabed geohazards and risk to proposed deepwater development. The approach employs a multi-disciplinary team working with engineering-quality field calibrated data to accurately map and assess seafloor ground conditions and ensure that development proposals are not exposed to intolerable geohazard risk. The approach taken is very similar to the practice of establishing geological models for land-based engineering projects, in which the complete geological history of the site is used to characterise and predict the performance of the ground. Such an approach is routine for major projects on land but so far does not seem to be common practice in the offshore industry. The paper illustrates the seafloor geomophological mapping approach developed. The products are being used to optimise development layouts to avoid geohazards where possible and to support site-specific engineering design of facilities based on a detailed understanding of the potential geohazard loadings and associated risk.

  1. An integrated approach for risk profiling and spatial prediction of Schistosoma mansoni–hookworm coinfection

    PubMed Central

    Raso, Giovanna; Vounatsou, Penelope; Singer, Burton H.; N′Goran, Eliézer K.; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

    2006-01-01

    Multiple-species parasitic infections are pervasive in the developing world, yet resources for their control are scarce. We present an integrated approach for risk profiling and spatial prediction of coinfection with Schistosoma mansoni and hookworm for western Côte d’Ivoire. Our approach combines demographic, environmental, and socioeconomic data; incorporates them into a geographic information system; and employs spatial statistics. Demographic and socioeconomic data were obtained from education registries and from a questionnaire administered to schoolchildren. Environmental data were derived from remotely sensed satellite images and digitized ground maps. Parasitologic data, obtained from fecal examination by using two different diagnostic approaches, served as the outcome measure. Bayesian variogram models were used to assess risk factors and spatial variation of S. mansoni–hookworm coinfection in relation to demographic, environmental, and socioeconomic variables. Coinfections were found in 680 of 3,578 schoolchildren (19.0%) with complete data records. The prevalence of monoinfections with either hookworm or S. mansoni was 24.3% and 24.1%, respectively. Multinomial Bayesian spatial models showed that age, sex, socioeconomic status, and elevation were good predictors for the spatial distribution of S. mansoni–hookworm coinfection. We conclude that our integrated approach, employing a diversity of data sources, geographic information system and remote sensing technologies, and Bayesian spatial statistics, is a powerful tool for risk profiling and spatial prediction of S. mansoni–hookworm coinfection. More generally, this approach facilitates risk mapping and prediction of other parasite combinations and multiparasitism, and hence can guide integrated disease control programs in resource-constrained settings. PMID:16632601

  2. A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The assessment of climate change related risks is notoriously difficult due to the complex and uncertain combinations of hazardous events that might happen, the multiplicity of physical processes involved, the continuous changes and interactions of environmental and socio-economic systems. One important challenge lies in predicting and modelling cascades of natural and man -made hazard events which can be triggered by climate change, encompassing different spatial and temporal scales. Another regard the potentially difficult integration of environmental, social and economic disciplines in the multi-risk concept. Finally, the effective interaction between scientists and stakeholders is essential to ensure that multi-risk knowledge is translated into efficient adaptation and management strategies. The assessment is even more complex at the scale of deltaic systems which are particularly vulnerable to global environmental changes, due to the fragile equilibrium between the presence of valuable natural ecosystems and relevant economic activities. Improving our capacity to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surges, reduction in sediment load, local subsidence, saltwater intrusion) is therefore essential to identify timely opportunities for adaptation. A holistic multi-risk approach is here proposed to integrate terminology, metrics and methodologies from different research fields (i.e. environmental, social and economic sciences) thus creating shared knowledge areas to advance multi risk assessment and management in delta regions. A first testing of the approach, including the application of Bayesian network analysis for the assessment of impacts of climate change on key natural systems (e.g. wetlands, protected areas, beaches) and socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture, tourism), is applied in the Po river delta in Northern Italy. The approach is based on a bottom-up process involving local stakeholders early in different

  3. Age-Infusion Approach to Derive Injury Risk Curves for Dummies from Human Cadaver Tests

    PubMed Central

    Yoganandan, Narayan; Banerjee, Anjishnu; Pintar, Frank A.

    2015-01-01

    Injury criteria and risk curves are needed for anthropomorphic test devices (dummies) to assess injuries for improving human safety. The present state of knowledge is based on using injury outcomes and biomechanical metrics from post-mortem human subject (PMHS) and mechanical records from dummy tests. Data from these models are combined to develop dummy injury assessment risk curves (IARCs)/dummy injury assessment risk values (IARVs). This simple substitution approach involves duplicating dummy metrics for PMHS tested under similar conditions and pairing with PMHS injury outcomes. It does not directly account for the age of each specimen tested in the PMHS group. Current substitution methods for injury risk assessments use age as a covariate and dummy metrics (e.g., accelerations) are not modified so that age can be directly included in the model. The age-infusion methodology presented in this perspective article accommodates for an annual rate factor that modifies the dummy injury risk assessment responses to account for the age of the PMHS that the injury data were based on. The annual rate factor is determined using human injury risk curves. The dummy metrics are modulated based on individual PMHS age and rate factor, thus “infusing” age into the dummy data. Using PMHS injuries and accelerations from side-impact experiments, matched-pair dummy tests, and logistic regression techniques, the methodology demonstrates the process of age-infusion to derive the IARCs and IARVs. PMID:26697422

  4. Human health and performance risk management—an approach for exploration missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, Jeffrey R.; Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Richard, Elizabeth E.

    During long duration exploration missions, maintaining human health and performance will be essential to enabling success. Therefore, NASA has developed standards through the Health and Medical Technical Authority to insure human health and performance during exploration. Human health standards are the first step in defining acceptable risk for human space flight and take into consideration both short-term (mission) and long-term (lifetime) health risk. These standards are based on the best medical evidence from terrestrial standards; analog spaceflight environments; and spaceflight experience. Standards drive the development of focused program requirements to mitigate risks associated with specific missions. Program requirements include vehicle design as well as health care systems including medical, environmental and countermeasures. NASA has also developed the risk mitigation analysis tool (RMAT), a process to evaluate the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. The RMAT facilitates documentation and analysis of the effectiveness of mitigation strategies, enables NASA to baseline a risk mitigation approach based on the best evidence, and provides the traceability from research and technology development projects to specific mission deliverables.

  5. Harmonised pesticide risk trend indicator for food (HAPERITIF): The methodological approach.

    PubMed

    Calliera, Maura; Finizio, Antonio; Azimonti, Giovanna; Benfenati, Emilio; Trevisan, Marco

    2006-12-01

    To provide a harmonised European approach for pesticide risk indicators, the Sixth EU Framework Programme recently financed the HAIR (HArmonised environmental Indicators for pesticide Risk) project. This paper illustrates the methodology underlying a new indicator-HAPERITIF (HArmonised PEsticide RIsk Trend Indicator for Food), developed in HAIR, for tracking acute and chronic pesticide risk trends for consumers. The acute indicator, HAPERITIF(ac), is based on the ratio between an estimated short-term intake (ESTI), calculated as recommended by the World Health Organisation (WHO), and the acute reference dose (ARfD); the chronic indicator HAPERITIF(chr) is based on the ratio between an estimated daily intake (EDI) and the admissible daily intake (ADI). HAPERITIF can be applied at different levels of aggregation. Each level gives information for proper risk management of pesticides to reduce the risk associated with food consumption. An example of application using realistic scenarios of pesticide treatments on a potato crop in central-northern Italy is reported to illustrate the different steps of HAPERITIF. PMID:17051622

  6. Reducing Design Risk Using Robust Design Methods: A Dual Response Surface Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Unal, Resit; Yeniay, Ozgur; Lepsch, Roger A. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    Space transportation system conceptual design is a multidisciplinary process containing considerable element of risk. Risk here is defined as the variability in the estimated (output) performance characteristic of interest resulting from the uncertainties in the values of several disciplinary design and/or operational parameters. Uncertainties from one discipline (and/or subsystem) may propagate to another, through linking parameters and the final system output may have a significant accumulation of risk. This variability can result in significant deviations from the expected performance. Therefore, an estimate of variability (which is called design risk in this study) together with the expected performance characteristic value (e.g. mean empty weight) is necessary for multidisciplinary optimization for a robust design. Robust design in this study is defined as a solution that minimizes variability subject to a constraint on mean performance characteristics. Even though multidisciplinary design optimization has gained wide attention and applications, the treatment of uncertainties to quantify and analyze design risk has received little attention. This research effort explores the dual response surface approach to quantify variability (risk) in critical performance characteristics (such as weight) during conceptual design.

  7. Using Computational Approaches to Improve Risk-Stratified Patient Management: Rationale and Methods

    PubMed Central

    Stone, Bryan L; Sakaguchi, Farrant; Sheng, Xiaoming; Murtaugh, Maureen A

    2015-01-01

    Background Chronic diseases affect 52% of Americans and consume 86% of health care costs. A small portion of patients consume most health care resources and costs. More intensive patient management strategies, such as case management, are usually more effective at improving health outcomes, but are also more expensive. To use limited resources efficiently, risk stratification is commonly used in managing patients with chronic diseases, such as asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, and heart disease. Patients are stratified based on predicted risk with patients at higher risk given more intensive care. The current risk-stratified patient management approach has 3 limitations resulting in many patients not receiving the most appropriate care, unnecessarily increased costs, and suboptimal health outcomes. First, using predictive models for health outcomes and costs is currently the best method for forecasting individual patient’s risk. Yet, accuracy of predictive models remains poor causing many patients to be misstratified. If an existing model were used to identify candidate patients for case management, enrollment would miss more than half of those who would benefit most, but include others unlikely to benefit, wasting limited resources. Existing models have been developed under the assumption that patient characteristics primarily influence outcomes and costs, leaving physician characteristics out of the models. In reality, both characteristics have an impact. Second, existing models usually give neither an explanation why a particular patient is predicted to be at high risk nor suggestions on interventions tailored to the patient’s specific case. As a result, many high-risk patients miss some suitable interventions. Third, thresholds for risk strata are suboptimal and determined heuristically with no quality guarantee. Objective The purpose of this study is to improve risk-stratified patient management so that more patients will receive the

  8. Polarised black holes in AdS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Costa, Miguel S.; Greenspan, Lauren; Oliveira, Miguel; Penedones, João; Santos, Jorge E.

    2016-06-01

    We consider solutions in Einstein-Maxwell theory with a negative cosmological constant that asymptote to global AdS 4 with conformal boundary {S}2× {{{R}}}t. At the sphere at infinity we turn on a space-dependent electrostatic potential, which does not destroy the asymptotic AdS behaviour. For simplicity we focus on the case of a dipolar electrostatic potential. We find two new geometries: (i) an AdS soliton that includes the full backreaction of the electric field on the AdS geometry; (ii) a polarised neutral black hole that is deformed by the electric field, accumulating opposite charges in each hemisphere. For both geometries we study boundary data such as the charge density and the stress tensor. For the black hole we also study the horizon charge density and area, and further verify a Smarr formula. Then we consider this system at finite temperature and compute the Gibbs free energy for both AdS soliton and black hole phases. The corresponding phase diagram generalizes the Hawking-Page phase transition. The AdS soliton dominates the low temperature phase and the black hole the high temperature phase, with a critical temperature that decreases as the external electric field increases. Finally, we consider the simple case of a free charged scalar field on {S}2× {{{R}}}t with conformal coupling. For a field in the SU(N ) adjoint representation we compare the phase diagram with the above gravitational system.

  9. Xplicit, a novel approach in probabilistic spatiotemporally explicit exposure and risk assessment for plant protection products.

    PubMed

    Schad, Thorsten; Schulz, Ralf

    2011-10-01

    The quantification of risk (the likelihood and extent of adverse effects) is a prerequisite in regulatory decision making for plant protection products and is the goal of the Xplicit project. In its present development stage, realism is increased in the exposure assessment (EA), first by using real-world data on, e.g., landscape factors affecting exposure, and second, by taking the variability of key factors into account. Spatial and temporal variability is explicitly addressed. Scale dependencies are taken into account, which allows for risk quantification at different scales, for example, at landscape scale, an overall picture of the potential exposure of nontarget organisms can be derived (e.g., for all off-crop habitats in a given landscape); at local scale, exposure might be relevant to assess recovery and recolonization potential; intermediate scales might best refer to population level and hence might be relevant for risk management decisions (e.g., individual off-crop habitats). The Xplicit approach is designed to comply with a central paradigm of probabilistic approaches, namely, that each individual case that is derived from the variability functions employed should represent a potential real-world case. This is mainly achieved by operating in a spatiotemporally explicit fashion. Landscape factors affecting the local exposure of habitats of nontarget species (i.e., receptors) are derived from geodatabases. Variability in time is resolved by operating at discrete time steps, with the probability of events (e.g., application) or conditions (e.g., wind conditions) defined in probability density functions (PDFs). The propagation of variability of parameters into variability of exposure and risk is done using a Monte Carlo approach. Among the outcomes are expectancy values on the realistic worst-case exposure (predicted environmental concentration [PEC]), the probability p that the PEC exceeds the ecologically acceptable concentration (EAC) for a given

  10. Children's online coping strategies: Rethinking coping typologies in a risk-specific approach.

    PubMed

    Vandoninck, Sofie; d'Haenens, Leen

    2015-12-01

    Understanding how children deal with problematic situations online is helpful in developing efficient awareness raising and online resilience building initiatives. In this article, we will discuss and develop typologies for online coping strategies. In a school survey, 2046 Flemish children aged 10-16 were asked about how they (would) respond when confronted with different types of online risks. Using principal component analyses and multi-dimensional scaling, we identified different types of cross-risk and risk-specific coping strategies, and explored which types of coping have similar underlying meanings. The results suggest to distinguish behavioral avoidance tactics from mere passive responses or indifference. Young people tend to perceive online coping strategies along two dimensions: engagement versus disengagement and technical versus non-technical measures. Behavioral avoidance is popular among younger children and is associated with a medium level of active engagement and often combined with communicative approaches. Girls are more communicative and respond more proactively. PMID:26513127

  11. Towards a nutrient export risk matrix approach to managing agricultural pollution at source

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hewett, C. J. M.; Quinn, P. F.; Whitehead, P. G.; Heathwaite, A. L.; Flynn, N. J.

    A generic Nutrient Export Risk Matrix (NERM) approach is presented. This provides advice to farmers and policy makers on good practice for reducing nutrient loss and, hopefully, persuades them to implement such measures. Combined with a range of nutrient transport modelling tools and field experiments, NERMs can play an important role in reducing nutrient export from agricultural land. The Phosphorus Export Risk Matrix (PERM) is presented as an example NERM. The PERM integrates hydrological understanding of runoff with a number of agronomic and policy factors into a clear problem-solving framework. This allows farmers and policy makers to visualise strategies for reducing phosphorus loss through proactive land management. The risk of pollution is assessed by a series of informed questions relating to farming intensity and practice. This information is combined with the concept of runoff management to point towards simple, practical remedial strategies which do not compromise farmers’ ability to obtain sound economic returns from their crop and livestock.

  12. Approaches to risk-adjusting outcome measures applied to criminal justice involvement after community service.

    PubMed

    Banks, S M; Pandiani, J A; Bramley, J

    2001-08-01

    The ethic of fairness in program evaluation requires that measures of behavioral health agency performance be sensitive to differences in those agencies' caseload composition. The authors describe two traditional approaches to the statistical risk adjustment of outcome measures (stratification weighting and pre-post measurement) that are designed to account for differences in caseload composition and introduce a method that incorporates the strengths of both approaches. Procedures for deriving each of these measures are described in detail and demonstrated in the evaluation of a statewide system of community-based behavioral health care programs. This evaluation examines the degree to which service recipients get into trouble with the law after treatment. Three measures are recommended for inclusion in outcome-oriented "report cards," and the interpretation of each measure is discussed. Finally, the authors suggest formats for graphic and tabular presentation of the risk-adjusted evaluation for sharing findings with diverse stakeholder groups. PMID:11497020

  13. Assessing risk by impacts: a probabilistic approach for drought assessment in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blauhut, Veit; Stahl, Kerstin; Vogt, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    The risk of natural disasters in a very general sense is a combination of hazard and vulnerability. For drought, the hazard is commonly derived from the statistical analysis of one or a set of drought indicators. Their selection mostly depends on the focus of the study, with the usage of standardized indices experiencing growing popularity. Vulnerability to drought is typically estimated by a subjectively weighted combination of relevant factors describing different aspects of vulnerability, such as exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. This epistemic approach requires explicit information on physical, ecological, institutional and socioeconomic parameters. Even though impacts are known as symptoms of vulnerability and risk is often defined as the likelihood of impact occurrence (e.g. by the IPCC 2012 SREX report), information on past impacts is only poorly integrated in current drought risk assessment. Only few approaches have verified their vulnerability index with past impact information. We present a probabilistic approach to estimate drought risk based on the assumption that a system is vulnerable if it was impacted during a certain hazard. Thatfore, information on past drought impacts from the European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII) can function as a proxy for vulnerability to drought. Multivariable logistic regression is then applied to find non-subjective combinations of drought indices and vulnerability factors to predict the likelihood of drought impact occurrence. The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) of the European Drought Observatory, SPI and SPEI (1-36) are considered as drought indices; vulnerability factors are gathered from quantitative and qualitative data of statistical databases (e.g. Eurostat, Aquastat). Thus, sector- specific drought risk maps for selected hazard levels were developed for Europe. This work reconsiders the practice of current research philosophies and highlights the importance to detect vulnerability by its

  14. Adding insult to injury: childhood and adolescent risk factors for psychosis predict lower fractional anisotropy in the superior longitudinal fasciculus in healthy adults

    PubMed Central

    DeRosse, Pamela; Ikuta, Toshikazu; Peters, Bart D.; Karlsgodt, Katherine H.; Szeszko, Philip R.; Malhotra, Anil K.

    2014-01-01

    Although epidemiological studies provide strong support for demographic and environmental risk factors in psychotic disorders, few data examine how these risk factors relate to the putative aberrant neurodevelopment associated with illness. The present study examined how the accumulation of risk factors including low IQ, low parental socioeconomic status, history of adolescent cannabis use and childhood trauma, and high levels of subclinical psychotic-like experiences contributed to aberrant neurodevelopmental outcomes in 112 otherwise healthy adults recruited from the community. Participants were studied with diffusion tensor imaging, and voxel-wise statistical analysis of fractional anisotropy (FA) using tract-based spatial statistics was used to examine the relation between cumulative risk (CR) for psychosis and white matter (WM) integrity across the whole brain. Analyses revealed that higher CR was significantly associated with lower FA in a cluster in the left superior longitudinal fasciculus. These results suggest that risk factors previously associated with psychotic disorders are associated with WM integrity even in otherwise healthy adults and may provide insight into how previously identified risk factors contribute to the structural brain abnormalities associated with psychotic illness. Prospective longitudinal studies examining the effect of risk factors on the developmental trajectory of brain WM are warranted. PMID:25277095

  15. Adding insult to injury: childhood and adolescent risk factors for psychosis predict lower fractional anisotropy in the superior longitudinal fasciculus in healthy adults.

    PubMed

    DeRosse, Pamela; Ikuta, Toshikazu; Peters, Bart D; Karlsgodt, Katherine H; Szeszko, Philip R; Malhotra, Anil K

    2014-12-30

    Although epidemiological studies provide strong support for demographic and environmental risk factors in psychotic disorders, few data examine how these risk factors relate to the putative aberrant neurodevelopment associated with illness. The present study examined how the accumulation of risk factors including low IQ, low parental socioeconomic status (SES), history of adolescent cannabis use and childhood trauma, and high levels of subclinical psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) contributed to aberrant neurodevelopmental outcomes in 112 otherwise healthy adults recruited from the community. Participants were studied with diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), and voxel-wise statistical analysis of fractional anisotropy (FA) using tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS) was used to examine the relation between cumulative risk (CR) for psychosis and white matter (WM) integrity across the whole brain. Analyses revealed that higher CR was significantly associated with lower FA in a cluster in the left superior longitudinal fasciculus (SLF). These results suggest that risk factors previously associated with psychotic disorders are associated with WM integrity even in otherwise healthy adults and may provide insight into how previously identified risk factors contribute to the structural brain abnormalities associated with psychotic illness. Prospective longitudinal studies examining the effect of risk factors on the developmental trajectory of brain WM are warranted. PMID:25277095

  16. A framework for risk assessment on soil erosion by water using an integrated and systematic approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Qiang; Wang, Mingyu

    2007-04-01

    SummaryA new approach for establishment of an analytical risk assessment model to evaluate the risk index for soil erosion by water is proposed, in which the remote sensing, GIS, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), and modeling techniques are integrated through investigation of soil erosion by water in a joining area that partially covers the Shanxi province, Shaanxi province, and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China. Based on field survey and information analyses, pertinent factors for soil erosion by water in this region are assessed and nine dominating factors are identified. The considered dominating factors include the soil type, rainstorm intensity, landform accounting for physiognomy type, ravine density, and land slope, vegetation coverage, mining area, level of water and soil conservation, and type of land uses. The GIS thematic layers of degrees of risk on soil erosion for those dominating factors are constructed. The weight of each thematic layer is determined through the AHP technique. This model is then applied in predicting development of soil erosion at a typical scenario for this study area. A brief discussion on construction and application of this model is presented. It is demonstrated that the presented methodology is practicable for establishing a risk assessment mode for soil erosion by water for an area of interest where pertinent information such as remote sensing data is available. A flowchart presenting a general procedure for implementation of the proposed approach is also included.

  17. A risk-based screening approach for prioritizing contaminants and exposure pathways at Superfund sites.

    PubMed

    Hoffman, F O; Blaylock, B G; Frank, M L; Thiessen, K M

    1993-12-01

    Contamination at Superfund sites can involve mixtures of chemicals and radionuclides in a variety of environmental media. Determining priorities for evaluation and remediation of various contaminants is an important part of the initial phases of any site investigation. An effective screening analysis at the beginning of the project can help by identifying both those situations in need of immediate remedial attention and those which require further sampling and evaluation. The screening approach discussed here is made up of two sets of calculations designed to provide upper- and lower-bound estimates of health risk to individuals likely to receive the highest exposures. This approach allows rapid identification of contaminants which pose a negligible risk and can be assigned a low priority for remedial attention or which pose a substantial risk and should be given the highest priority for appropriate remediation efforts. Contaminants designated as neither high- nor low-priority should be investigated in more detail prior to making decisions regarding the need for or method of remediation. The utility of this approach has already been demonstrated in the evaluation of contamination in the Clinch and Tennessee River systems originating from historical operations of atomic weapons and energy research facilities near Oak Ridge, Tennessee. PMID:24221185

  18. Developing a comprehensive approach to risk management of musculoskeletal disorders in non-nursing health care sector employees.

    PubMed

    Oakman, Jodi; Macdonald, Wendy; Wells, Yvonne

    2014-11-01

    This study of selected jobs in the health care sector explored a range of physical and psychosocial factors to identify those that most strongly predicted work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSD) risk. A self-report survey was used to collect data on physical and psychosocial risk factors from employees in three health care organisations in Victoria, Australia. Multivariate analyses demonstrated the importance of both psychosocial and physical hazards in predicting WMSD risk and provides evidence for risk management of WMSDs to incorporate a more comprehensive and integrated approach. Use of a risk management toolkit is recommended to address WMSD risk in the workplace. PMID:24998863

  19. Diabetes Mellitus and Prediabetes on Kidney Transplant Waiting List- Prevalence, Metabolic Phenotyping and Risk Stratification Approach

    PubMed Central

    Guthoff, Martina; Vosseler, Dorothea; Langanke, Julia; Nadalin, Silvio; Königsrainer, Alfred; Häring, Hans-Ulrich; Fritsche, Andreas; Heyne, Nils

    2015-01-01

    Background Despite a significant prognostic impact, little is known about disturbances in glucose metabolism among kidney transplant candidates. We assess the prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) and prediabetes on kidney transplant waiting list, its underlying pathophysiology and propose an approach for individual risk stratification. Methods All patients on active kidney transplant waiting list of a large European university hospital transplant center were metabolically phenotyped. Results Of 138 patients, 76 (55%) had disturbances in glucose metabolism. 22% of patients had known DM, 3% were newly diagnosed. 30% were detected to have prediabetes. Insulin sensitivity and-secretion indices allowed for identification of underlying pathophysiology and risk factors. Age independently affected insulin secretion, resulting in a relative risk for prediabetes of 2.95 (95%CI 1.38–4.83) with a cut-off at 48 years. Body mass index independently affected insulin sensitivity as a continuous variable. Conclusions The prevalence of DM or prediabetes on kidney transplant waiting list is as high as 55%, with more than one third of patients previously undiagnosed. Oral glucose tolerance test is mandatory to detect all patients at risk. Metabolic phenotyping allows for differentiation of underlying pathophysiology and provides a basis for early individual risk stratification and specific intervention to improve patient and allograft outcome. PMID:26398489

  20. A Risk-based Model Predictive Control Approach to Adaptive Interventions in Behavioral Health.

    PubMed

    Zafra-Cabeza, Ascensión; Rivera, Daniel E; Collins, Linda M; Ridao, Miguel A; Camacho, Eduardo F

    2011-07-01

    This paper examines how control engineering and risk management techniques can be applied in the field of behavioral health through their use in the design and implementation of adaptive behavioral interventions. Adaptive interventions are gaining increasing acceptance as a means to improve prevention and treatment of chronic, relapsing disorders, such as abuse of alcohol, tobacco, and other drugs, mental illness, and obesity. A risk-based Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm is developed for a hypothetical intervention inspired by Fast Track, a real-life program whose long-term goal is the prevention of conduct disorders in at-risk children. The MPC-based algorithm decides on the appropriate frequency of counselor home visits, mentoring sessions, and the availability of after-school recreation activities by relying on a model that includes identifiable risks, their costs, and the cost/benefit assessment of mitigating actions. MPC is particularly suited for the problem because of its constraint-handling capabilities, and its ability to scale to interventions involving multiple tailoring variables. By systematically accounting for risks and adapting treatment components over time, an MPC approach as described in this paper can increase intervention effectiveness and adherence while reducing waste, resulting in advantages over conventional fixed treatment. A series of simulations are conducted under varying conditions to demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm. PMID:21643450

  1. A theory-based approach to understanding suicide risk in shelter-seeking women.

    PubMed

    Wolford-Clevenger, Caitlin; Smith, Phillip N

    2015-04-01

    Women seeking shelter from intimate partner violence are at an increased risk for suicide ideation and attempts compared to women in the general population. Control-based violence, which is common among shelter-seeking women, may play a pivotal role in the development of suicide ideation and attempts. Current risk assessment and management practices for shelter-seeking women are limited by the lack of an empirically grounded understanding of increased risk in this population. We argue that in order to more effectively promote risk assessment and management, an empirically supported theory that is sensitive to the experiences of shelter-seeking women is needed. Such a theory-driven approach has the benefits of identifying and prioritizing targetable areas for intervention. Here, we review the evidence for the link between coercive control and suicide ideation and attempts from the perspective of Baumeister's escape theory of suicide. This theory has the potential to explain the role of coercive control in the development of suicide ideation and eventual attempts in shelter-seeking women. Implications for suicide risk assessment and prevention in domestic violence shelters are discussed. PMID:24415137

  2. A risk-adjusted approach to comparing the return on investment in health care programs.

    PubMed

    Sendi, Pedram; Al, Maiwenn J; Zimmermann, Heinz

    2004-09-01

    The league table approach to rank ordering health care programs according to the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is a common method to guide policy makers in setting priorities for resource allocation. In the presence of uncertainty, however, ranking programs is complicated by the degree of variability associated with each program. Confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness ratios may be overlapping. Moreover, confidence intervals may include negative ratios and the interpretation of negative cost-effectiveness ratios is ambiguous. We suggest to rank mutually exclusive health care programs according to their rate of return which is defined as the net monetary benefit over the costs of the program. However, how does a program with a higher expected return but higher uncertainty compare to a program with a lower expected return but lower risk? In the present paper we propose a risk-adjusted measure to compare the return on investment in health care programs. Financing a health care program is treated as an investment in a risky asset. The risky asset is combined with a risk-free asset in order to construct a combined portfolio. The weights attributed to the risk-free and risky assets are chosen in such a manner that all programs under consideration exhibit the same degree of uncertainty. We can then compare the performance of the individual programs by constructing a risk-adjusted league table of expected returns. PMID:15277778

  3. Risk assessment of pre-hospital trauma airway management by anaesthesiologists using the predictive Bayesian approach

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Introduction Endotracheal intubation (ETI) has been considered an essential part of pre-hospital advanced life support. Pre-hospital ETI, however, is a complex intervention also for airway specialist like anaesthesiologists working as pre-hospital emergency physicians. We therefore wanted to investigate the quality of pre-hospital airway management by anaesthesiologists in severely traumatised patients and identify possible areas for improvement. Method We performed a risk assessment according to the predictive Bayesian approach, in a typical anaesthesiologist-manned Norwegian helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS). The main focus of the risk assessment was the event where a patient arrives in the emergency department without ETI despite a pre-hospital indication for it. Results In the risk assessment, we assigned a high probability (29%) for the event assessed, that a patient arrives without ETI despite a pre-hospital indication. However, several uncertainty factors in the risk assessment were identified related to data quality, indications for use of ETI, patient outcome and need for special training of ETI providers. Conclusion Our risk assessment indicated a high probability for trauma patients with an indication for pre-hospital ETI not receiving it in the studied HEMS. The uncertainty factors identified in the assessment should be further investigated to better understand the problem assessed and consequences for the patients. Better quality of pre-hospital airway management data could contribute to a reduction of these uncertainties. PMID:20409306

  4. Using wildlife as receptor species: a landscape approach to ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Gaines, Karen F; Porter, Dwayne E; Dyer, Susan A; Wein, Gary R; Pinder, John E; Brisbin, I Lehr

    2004-10-01

    To assist risk assessors at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS), a Geographic Information System (GIS) application was developed to provide relevant information about specific receptor species of resident wildlife that can be used for ecological risk assessment. Information was obtained from an extensive literature review of publications and reports on vertebrate- and contaminant-related research since 1954 and linked to a GIS. Although this GIS is a useful tool for risk assessors because the data quality is high, it does not describe the species' site-wide spatial distribution or life history, which may be crucial when developing a risk assessment. Specific receptor species on the SRS were modeled to provide an estimate of an overall distribution (probability of being in an area). Each model is a stand-alone tool consisting of algorithms independent of the GIS data layers to which it is applied and therefore is dynamic and will respond to changes such as habitat disturbances and natural succession. This paper describes this modeling process and demonstrates how these resource selection models can then be used to produce spatially explicit exposure estimates. This approach is a template for other large federal facilities to establish a framework for site-specific risk assessments that use wildlife species as endpoints. PMID:15747408

  5. Intent, Capability and Opportunity: A Holistic Approach to Addressing Proliferation as a Risk Management Issue

    SciTech Connect

    Amanda Rynes; Trond Bjornard

    2011-07-01

    Currently, proliferation risk assessment models are designed to evaluate only a portion of the overall risk, focusing exclusively on either technological or social factors to determine the extent of a threat. Many of these models are intended to act as a means of predicting proliferation potential rather than assessing the system as a whole, ignoring the ability to enhance mitigating factors and manage, rather just establish the presence of, the threat. While the information garnered through these forms of analysis is necessary, it remains incomplete. By incorporating political, social, economic and technical capabilities as well as human factors such as intent into a single, multi-faceted risk management model, proliferation risk can be evaluated more effectively. Framing this information around how to improve and expand the Regime already in place and establishing where there are gaps in the system allows for a more complete approach to risk management, mitigation and resource allocation. The research conducted here seeks to combine all three elements (intent, capability and opportunity) in a comprehensive evaluation which incorporates an assessment of state-level variables, possible proliferation pathways and technical capability. Each portion of the analysis is carried out independently then combined to illustrate the full scope of a State's nuclear infrastructure while showing areas of weakness in the institutional framework.

  6. Early interventions for youths at high risk for bipolar disorder: a developmental approach.

    PubMed

    Benarous, Xavier; Consoli, Angèle; Milhiet, Vanessa; Cohen, David

    2016-03-01

    In recent decades, ongoing research programmes on primary prevention and early identification of bipolar disorder (BD) have been developed. The aim of this article is to review the principal forms of evidence that support preventive interventions for BD in children and adolescents and the main challenges associated with these programmes. We performed a literature review of the main computerised databases (MEDLINE, PUBMED) and a manual search of the literature relevant to prospective and retrospective studies of prodromal symptoms, premorbid stages, risk factors, and early intervention programmes for BD. Genetic and environmental risk factors of BD were identified. Most of the algorithms used to measure the risk of developing BD and the early interventions programmes focused on the familial risk. The prodromal signs varied greatly and were age dependent. During adolescence, depressive episodes associated with genetic or environmental risk factors predicted the onset of hypomanic/manic episodes over subsequent years. In prepubertal children, the lack of specificity of clinical markers and difficulties in mood assessment were seen as impeding preventive interventions at these ages. Despite encouraging results, biomarkers have not thus far been sufficiently validated in youth samples to serve as screening tools for prevention. Additional longitudinal studies in youths at high risk of developing BD should include repeated measures of putative biomarkers. Staging models have been developed as an integrative approach to specify the individual level of risk based on clinical (e.g. prodromal symptoms and familial history of BD) and non-clinical (e.g. biomarkers and neuroimaging) data. However, there is still a lack of empirically validated studies that measure the benefits of using these models to design preventive intervention programmes. PMID:26395448

  7. A developmental approach to the risk of a first recurrence in child protective services.

    PubMed

    Hélie, Sonia; Laurier, Catherine; Pineau-Villeneuve, Catherine; Royer, Marie-Noële

    2013-12-01

    The objective of this study is to estimate the risk of a first recurrence over a five-year period following initial child protective services (CPS) intervention and identify the characteristics associated with the risk of recurrence for three different age groups. Recurrence is defined as the first substantiated report within the observation period after initial services have ended. The study involved a cohort of 25,897 Quebec children who received postinvestigation services for the first time and whose cases were closed between 2005 and 2009. Survival analysis was used to estimate the five-year risk of recurrence and Cox regression to model the risk of recurrence for three age groups. The covariates introduced into the regression analyses were characteristics of the child and initial services. The risk of recurrence in the five years following termination of initial CPS services was 36% for the entire cohort and varied depending on the child's age at the time of case closure. Children aged 6-11 when their cases were closed had the highest risk of recurrence. Although Aboriginal descent and prior CPS investigations have a consistent effect on the risk of recurrence in all three age groups, the effects of other covariates, such as out-of-home placement and court involvement, vary or are even reversed, depending on the child's age. These findings highlight the need to adopt a differential approach that takes into account the child's age, both in the provision of protective services and in research involving the population receiving such services. PMID:23768933

  8. Urban flood early warning systems: approaches to hydrometeorological forecasting and communicating risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cranston, Michael; Speight, Linda; Maxey, Richard; Tavendale, Amy; Buchanan, Peter

    2015-04-01

    One of the main challenges for the flood forecasting community remains the provision of reliable early warnings of surface (or pluvial) flooding. The Scottish Flood Forecasting Service has been developing approaches for forecasting the risk of surface water flooding including capitalising on the latest developments in quantitative precipitation forecasting from the Met Office. A probabilistic Heavy Rainfall Alert decision support tool helps operational forecasters assess the likelihood of surface water flooding against regional rainfall depth-duration estimates from MOGREPS-UK linked to historical short-duration flooding in Scotland. The surface water flood risk is communicated through the daily Flood Guidance Statement to emergency responders. A more recent development is an innovative risk-based hydrometeorological approach that links 24-hour ensemble rainfall forecasts through a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) to a library of impact assessments (Speight et al., 2015). The early warning tool - FEWS Glasgow - presents the risk of flooding to people, property and transport across a 1km grid over the city of Glasgow with a lead time of 24 hours. Communication of the risk was presented in a bespoke surface water flood forecast product designed based on emergency responder requirements and trialled during the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. The development of new approaches to surface water flood forecasting are leading to improved methods of communicating the risk and better performance in early warning with a reduction in false alarm rates with summer flood guidance in 2014 (67%) compared to 2013 (81%) - although verification of instances of surface water flooding remains difficult. However the introduction of more demanding hydrometeorological capabilities with associated greater levels of uncertainty does lead to an increased demand on operational flood forecasting skills and resources. Speight, L., Cole, S.J., Moore, R.J., Pierce, C., Wright, B., Golding, B

  9. Are School Factors Important for Measuring Teacher Effectiveness? A Multilevel Technique to Predict Student Gains through a Value-Added Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Subedi, Bidya Raj; Swan, Bonnie; Hynes, Michael C.

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of teacher quality, represented by teacher level characteristics, on mathematics gain scores employing multilevel (or three-level hierarchical linear model, HLM, based) unconditional and conditional value-added model (VAM). We found the significant effects of teacher's mathematics content certification, teacher…

  10. In silico approaches to predicting cancer potency for risk assessment of genotoxic impurities in drug substances.

    PubMed

    Bercu, Joel P; Morton, Stuart M; Deahl, J Thom; Gombar, Vijay K; Callis, Courtney M; van Lier, Robert B L

    2010-01-01

    The current risk assessment approach for addressing the safety of very small concentrations of genotoxic impurities (GTIs) in drug substances is the threshold of toxicological concern (TTC). The TTC is based on several conservative assumptions because of the uncertainty associated with deriving an excess cancer risk when no carcinogenicity data are available for the impurity. It is a default approach derived from a distribution of carcinogens and does not take into account the properties of a specific chemical. The purpose of the study was to use in silico tools to predict the cancer potency (TD(50)) of a compound based on its structure. Structure activity relationship (SAR) models (classification/regression) were developed from the carcinogenicity potency database using MultiCASE and VISDOM. The MultiCASE classification models allowed the prediction of carcinogenic potency class, while the VISDOM regression models predicted a numerical TD(50). A step-wise approach is proposed to calculate predicted numerical TD(50) values for compounds categorized as not potent. This approach for non-potent compounds can be used to establish safe levels greater than the TTC for GTIs in a drug substance. PMID:20363275

  11. Risk management for moisture related effects in dry manufacturing processes: a statistical approach.

    PubMed

    Quiroz, Jorge; Strong, John; Zhang, Lanju

    2016-03-01

    A risk- and science-based approach to control the quality in pharmaceutical manufacturing includes a full understanding of how product attributes and process parameters relate to product performance through a proactive approach in formulation and process development. For dry manufacturing, where moisture content is not directly manipulated within the process, the variability in moisture of the incoming raw materials can impact both the processability and drug product quality attributes. A statistical approach is developed using individual raw material historical lots as a basis for the calculation of tolerance intervals for drug product moisture content so that risks associated with excursions in moisture content can be mitigated. The proposed method is based on a model-independent approach that uses available data to estimate parameters of interest that describe the population of blend moisture content values and which do not require knowledge of the individual blend moisture content values. Another advantage of the proposed tolerance intervals is that, it does not require the use of tabulated values for tolerance factors. This facilitates the implementation on any spreadsheet program like Microsoft Excel. A computational example is used to demonstrate the proposed method. PMID:25384711

  12. Limitations of the toxic equivalency factor (TEF) approach for risk assessment of halogenated aromatic hydrocarbons

    SciTech Connect

    Safe, S.

    1995-12-31

    2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) and related halogenated aromatic hydrocarbons (HAHs) are present as complex mixtures of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and biphenyls (PCBs) in most environmental matrices. Risk management of these mixtures utilize the toxic equivalency factor (TEF) approach in which the TCDD (dioxin) or toxic equivalents of a mixture is a summation of the congener concentration (Ci) times TEF{sub i} (potency relative to TCDD) where. TEQ{sub mixture} = {Sigma}[Cil] {times} TEF{sub i}. TEQs are determined only for those HAHs which are aryl hydrocarbon (Ah) receptor agonists and this approach assumes that the toxic or biochemical effects of individual compounds in a mixture are additive. Several in vivo and in vitro laboratory and field studies with different HAH mixtures have been utilized to validate the TEF approach. For some responses, the calculated toxicities of PCDD/PCDF and PCB mixtures predict the observed toxic potencies. However, for fetal cleft palate and immunotoxicity in mice, nonadditive (antagonistic) responses are observed using complex PCB mixtures or binary mixtures containing an Ah receptor agonist with 2,2{prime},4,4{prime},5,5{prime}-hexachlorobiphenyl (PCB153). The potential interactive effects of PCBs and other dietary Ah receptor antagonist suggest that the TEF approach for risk management of HAHs requires further refinement and should be used selectively.

  13. An Integrated Risk Approach for Assessing the Use of Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts in Hydroelectric Reservoir Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowry, T. S.; Wigmosta, M.; Barco, J.; Voisin, N.; Bier, A.; Coleman, A.; Skaggs, R.

    2012-12-01

    This paper presents an integrated risk approach using ensemble streamflow forecasts for optimizing hydro-electric power generation. Uncertainty in the streamflow forecasts are translated into integrated risk by calculating the deviation of an optimized release schedule that simultaneously maximizes power generation and environmental performance from release schedules that maximize the two objectives individually. The deviations from each target are multiplied by the probability of occurrence and then summed across all probabilities to get the integrated risk. The integrated risk is used to determine which operational scheme exposes the operator to the least amount of risk or conversely, what are the consequences of basing future operations on a particular prediction. Decisions can be made with regards to the tradeoff between power generation, environmental performance, and exposure to risk. The Hydropower Seasonal Concurrent Optimization for Power and Environment (HydroSCOPE) model developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is used to model the flow, temperature, and power generation and is coupled with the DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) optimization package to identify the maximum potential power generation, the maximum environmental performance, and the optimal operational scheme that maximizes both for each instance of the ensemble forecasts. The ensemble forecasts were developed in a collaborative effort between the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the University of Washington to develop an Enhanced Hydrologic Forecasting System (EHFS) that incorporates advanced ensemble forecasting approaches and algorithms, spatiotemporal datasets, and automated data acquisition and processing. Both the HydroSCOPE model and the EHFS forecast tool are being developed as part of a larger, multi-laboratory water-use optimization project funded through the US Department of Energy. The simulations were based on the

  14. A long-term, continuous simulation approach for large-scale flood risk assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Falter, Daniela; Schröter, Kai; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Kreibich, Heidi; Apel, Heiko; Merz, Bruno

    2014-05-01

    The Regional Flood Model (RFM) is a process based model cascade developed for flood risk assessments of large-scale basins. RFM consists of four model parts: the rainfall-runoff model SWIM, a 1D channel routing model, a 2D hinterland inundation model and the flood loss estimation model for residential buildings FLEMOps+r. The model cascade was recently undertaken a proof-of-concept study at the Elbe catchment (Germany) to demonstrate that flood risk assessments, based on a continuous simulation approach, including rainfall-runoff, hydrodynamic and damage estimation models, are feasible for large catchments. The results of this study indicated that uncertainties are significant, especially for hydrodynamic simulations. This was basically a consequence of low data quality and disregarding dike breaches. Therefore, RFM was applied with a refined hydraulic model setup for the Elbe tributary Mulde. The study area Mulde catchment comprises about 6,000 km2 and 380 river-km. The inclusion of more reliable information on overbank cross-sections and dikes considerably improved the results. For the application of RFM for flood risk assessments, long-term climate input data is needed to drive the model chain. This model input was provided by a multi-site, multi-variate weather generator that produces sets of synthetic meteorological data reproducing the current climate statistics. The data set comprises 100 realizations of 100 years of meteorological data. With the proposed continuous simulation approach of RFM, we simulated a virtual period of 10,000 years covering the entire flood risk chain including hydrological, 1D/2D hydrodynamic and flood damage estimation models. This provided a record of around 2.000 inundation events affecting the study area with spatially detailed information on inundation depths and damage to residential buildings on a resolution of 100 m. This serves as basis for a spatially consistent, flood risk assessment for the Mulde catchment presented in

  15. An approach for environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference rules.

    PubMed

    Topuz, Emel; van Gestel, Cornelis A M

    2016-01-01

    The usage of Engineered Nanoparticles (ENPs) in consumer products is relatively new and there is a need to conduct environmental risk assessment (ERA) to evaluate their impacts on the environment. However, alternative approaches are required for ERA of ENPs because of the huge gap in data and knowledge compared to conventional pollutants and their unique properties that make it difficult to apply existing approaches. This study aims to propose an ERA approach for ENPs by integrating Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference models which provide a systematic evaluation of risk factors and reducing uncertainty about the data and information, respectively. Risk is assumed to be the combination of occurrence likelihood, exposure potential and toxic effects in the environment. A hierarchy was established to evaluate the sub factors of these components. Evaluation was made with fuzzy numbers to reduce uncertainty and incorporate the expert judgements. Overall score of each component was combined with fuzzy inference rules by using expert judgements. Proposed approach reports the risk class and its membership degree such as Minor (0.7). Therefore, results are precise and helpful to determine the risk management strategies. Moreover, priority weights calculated by comparing the risk factors based on their importance for the risk enable users to understand which factor is effective on the risk. Proposed approach was applied for Ag (two nanoparticles with different coating) and TiO2 nanoparticles for different case studies. Results verified the proposed benefits of the approach. PMID:27131016

  16. Landslide risk impact management and web services for improving resilience: the LIFE+IMAGINE project approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Congi, Maria Pia; Campo, Valentina; Cipolloni, Carlo; Delmonaco, Giuseppe; Guerrieri, Luca; Iadanza, Carla; Spizzichino, Daniele; Trigila, Alessandro

    2014-05-01

    The increasing damage caused by natural disasters in the last decades points out the need for interoperable added-value services to support environmental safety and human protection, by reducing vulnerability of exposed elements as well as improving the resilience of the involved communities. For this reason, to provide access to harmonized and customized data is only one of several steps towards delivering adequate support to risk assessment, reduction and management. Scope of the present work is to illustrate a methodology under development for analysis of potential impacts in areas prone to landslide hazard in the framework of the EC project LIFE+IMAGINE. The project aims to implement an infrastructure based on web services for environmental analysis, that integrates in its own architecture specifications and results from INSPIRE, SEIS and GMES. Existing web services will be customized during the project to provide functionalities for supporting the environmental integrated management. The implemented infrastructure will be applied to landslide risk scenarios, to be developed in selected pilot areas, aiming at: i) application of standard procedures to implement a landslide risk analysis; ii) definition of a procedure for assessment of potential environmental impacts, based on a set of indicators to estimate the different exposed elements with their specific vulnerability in the pilot area. More in detail, the landslide pilot will be aimed at providing a landslide risk scenario through the implementation and analysis of: 1) a landslide inventory from available historical databases and maps; 2) landslide susceptibility and hazard maps; 3) assessment of exposure and vulnerability on selected typologies of elements at risk; 4) implementation of a landslide risk scenario for different sets of exposed elements (e.g. population, road network, residential area, cultural heritage). The pilot will be implemented in Liguria, Italy, in two different catchment areas located

  17. A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

    2014-10-01

    Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in

  18. A statistical approach to evaluate flood risk at the regional level: an application to Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossi, Mauro; Marchesini, Ivan; Salvati, Paola; Donnini, Marco; Guzzetti, Fausto; Sterlacchini, Simone; Zazzeri, Marco; Bonazzi, Alessandro; Carlesi, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    Floods are frequent and widespread in Italy, causing every year multiple fatalities and extensive damages to public and private structures. A pre-requisite for the development of mitigation schemes, including financial instruments such as insurance, is the ability to quantify their costs starting from the estimation of the underlying flood hazard. However, comprehensive and coherent information on flood prone areas, and estimates on the frequency and intensity of flood events, are not often available at scales appropriate for risk pooling and diversification. In Italy, River Basins Hydrogeological Plans (PAI), prepared by basin administrations, are the basic descriptive, regulatory, technical and operational tools for environmental planning in flood prone areas. Nevertheless, such plans do not cover the entire Italian territory, having significant gaps along the minor hydrographic network and in ungauged basins. Several process-based modelling approaches have been used by different basin administrations for the flood hazard assessment, resulting in an inhomogeneous hazard zonation of the territory. As a result, flood hazard assessments expected and damage estimations across the different Italian basin administrations are not always coherent. To overcome these limitations, we propose a simplified multivariate statistical approach for the regional flood hazard zonation coupled with a flood impact model. This modelling approach has been applied in different Italian basin administrations, allowing a preliminary but coherent and comparable estimation of the flood hazard and the relative impact. Model performances are evaluated comparing the predicted flood prone areas with the corresponding PAI zonation. The proposed approach will provide standardized information (following the EU Floods Directive specifications) on flood risk at a regional level which can in turn be more readily applied to assess flood economic impacts. Furthermore, in the assumption of an appropriate

  19. Risk management in medical product development process using traditional FMEA and fuzzy linguistic approach: a case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirkire, Milind Shrikant; Rane, Santosh B.; Jadhav, Jagdish Rajaram

    2015-05-01

    Medical product development (MPD) process is highly multidisciplinary in nature, which increases the complexity and the associated risks. Managing the risks during MPD process is very crucial. The objective of this research is to explore risks during MPD in a dental product manufacturing company and propose a model for risk mitigation during MPD process to minimize failure events. A case study approach is employed. The existing MPD process is mapped with five phases of the customized phase gate process. The activities during each phase of development and risks associated with each activity are identified and categorized based on the source of occurrence. The risks are analyzed using traditional Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) and fuzzy FMEA. The results of two methods when compared show that fuzzy approach avoids the duplication of RPNs and helps more to convert cognition of experts into information to get values of risk factors. The critical, moderate, low level and negligible risks are identified based on criticality; risk treatments and mitigation model are proposed. During initial phases of MPD, the risks are less severe, but as the process progresses the severity of risks goes on increasing. The MPD process should be critically designed and simulated to minimize the number of risk events and their severity. To successfully develop the products/devices within the manufacturing companies, the process risk management is very essential. A systematic approach to manage risks during MPD process will lead to the development of medical products with expected quality and reliability. This is the first research of its kind having focus on MPD process risks and its management. The methodology adopted in this paper will help the developers, managers and researchers to have a competitive edge over the other companies by managing the risks during the development process.

  20. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  1. A risk-based approach to assess projected yield changes at regional scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lissner, Tabea; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Mueller, Christoph

    2015-04-01

    Impacts of climate change on agricultural production are likely to negatively affect food security. However, large uncertainties exist in future projections of agricultural yields as well as regional differences in the direction and magnitude of the projected changes. An important question with regard to uncertainties in future crop yield projections is how to translate the modelling range into results meaningful for impact analyses and provide policy-relevant information. One way of addressing this question is to use a risk-based approach, analysing the risk of yield reductions at different levels of temperature increase on the basis of modelling intercomparison data (AgMIP). To assess regional scale differences in yield changes, we look at aggregates of agricultural production within the 26 regions defined in the IPCC SREX report. Using the available output of the AgMIP project, we assess the projected risk of regional yield reductions for maize, rice, wheat and soy at incremental steps of 0.5°C warming. Based on production areas of the year 2000 (MIRCA2000, Portmann, 2011), we assess projected yield changes only within current production areas, thereby excluding potential cropland expansion. Our approach provides an additional view-point to the existing analyses of the output of the AgMIP project. References: Portmann, F.T. (2011): Global estimation of monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas on a 5 arc-minute grid. Frankfurt Hydrology Paper 09, Institute of Physical Geography, University of Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

  2. A practical approach for implementing risk-based inservice testing of pumps at nuclear power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Hartley, R.S.; Maret, D.; Seniuk, P.; Smith, L.

    1996-12-01

    The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Center for Research and Technology Development`s (CRTD) Research Task Force on Risk-Based Inservice Testing has developed guidelines for risk-based inservice testing (IST) of pumps and valves. These guidelines are intended to help the ASME Operation and Maintenance (OM) Committee to enhance plant safety while focussing appropriate testing resources on critical components. This paper describes a practical approach for implementing those guidelines for pumps at nuclear power plants. The approach, as described in this paper, relies on input, direction, and assistance from several entities such as the ASME Code Committees, United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and the National Laboratories, as well as industry groups and personnel with applicable expertise. Key parts of the risk-based IST process that are addressed here include: identification of important failure modes, identification of significant failure causes, assessing the effectiveness of testing and maintenance activities, development of alternative testing and maintenance strategies, and assessing the effectiveness of alternative testing strategies with present ASME Code requirements. Finally, the paper suggests a method of implementing this process into the ASME OM Code for pump testing.

  3. Integrating risk and resilience approaches to catastrophe management in engineering systems.

    PubMed

    Park, J; Seager, T P; Rao, P S C; Convertino, M; Linkov, I

    2013-03-01

    Recent natural and man-made catastrophes, such as the Fukushima nuclear power plant, flooding caused by Hurricane Katrina, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the Haiti earthquake, and the mortgage derivatives crisis, have renewed interest in the concept of resilience, especially as it relates to complex systems vulnerable to multiple or cascading failures. Although the meaning of resilience is contested in different contexts, in general resilience is understood to mean the capacity to adapt to changing conditions without catastrophic loss of form or function. In the context of engineering systems, this has sometimes been interpreted as the probability that system conditions might exceed an irrevocable tipping point. However, we argue that this approach improperly conflates resilience and risk perspectives by expressing resilience exclusively in risk terms. In contrast, we describe resilience as an emergent property of what an engineering system does, rather than a static property the system has. Therefore, resilience cannot be measured at the systems scale solely from examination of component parts. Instead, resilience is better understood as the outcome of a recursive process that includes: sensing, anticipation, learning, and adaptation. In this approach, resilience analysis can be understood as differentiable from, but complementary to, risk analysis, with important implications for the adaptive management of complex, coupled engineering systems. Management of the 2011 flooding in the Mississippi River Basin is discussed as an example of the successes and challenges of resilience-based management of complex natural systems that have been extensively altered by engineered structures. PMID:22967095

  4. Approach for Mitigating Pressure Garment Design Risks in a Mobile Lunar Surface Systems Architecture

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aitchison, Lindsay

    2009-01-01

    The stated goals of the 2004 Vision for Space Exploration focus on establishing a human presence throughout the solar system beginning with the establishment of a permanent human presence on the Moon. However, the precise objectives to be accomplished on the lunar surface and the optimal system architecture to achieve those objectives have been a topic of much debate since the inception of the Constellation Program. There are two basic styles of system architectures being traded at the Programmatic level: a traditional large outpost that would focus on techniques for survival off our home planet and a greater depth of exploration within one area, or a mobile approach- akin to a series of nomadic camps- that would allow greater breadth of exploration opportunities. The traditional outpost philosophy is well within the understood pressure garment design space with respect to developing interfaces and operational life cycle models. The mobile outpost, however, combines many unknowns with respect to pressure garment performance and reliability that could dramatically affect the cost and schedule risks associated with the Constellation space suit system. This paper provides an overview of the concepts being traded for a mobile architecture from the operations and hardware implementation perspective, describes the primary risks to the Constellation pressure garment associated with each of the concepts, and summarizes the approach necessary to quantify the pressure garment design risks to enable the Constellation Program to make informed decisions when deciding on an overall lunar surface systems architecture.

  5. Use of an ecologically relevant modelling approach to improve remote sensing-based schistosomiasis risk profiling.

    PubMed

    Walz, Yvonne; Wegmann, Martin; Leutner, Benjamin; Dech, Stefan; Vounatsou, Penelope; N'Goran, Eliézer K; Raso, Giovanna; Utzinger, Jürg

    2015-01-01

    Schistosomiasis is a widespread water-based disease that puts close to 800 million people at risk of infection with more than 250 million infected, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa. Transmission is governed by the spatial distribution of specific freshwater snails that act as intermediate hosts and the frequency, duration and extent of human bodies exposed to infested water sources during human water contact. Remote sensing data have been utilized for spatially explicit risk profiling of schistosomiasis. Since schistosomiasis risk profiling based on remote sensing data inherits a conceptual drawback if school-based disease prevalence data are directly related to the remote sensing measurements extracted at the location of the school, because the disease transmission usually does not exactly occur at the school, we took the local environment around the schools into account by explicitly linking ecologically relevant environmental information of potential disease transmission sites to survey measurements of disease prevalence. Our models were validated at two sites with different landscapes in Côte d'Ivoire using high- and moderate-resolution remote sensing data based on random forest and partial least squares regression. We found that the ecologically relevant modelling approach explained up to 70% of the variation in Schistosoma infection prevalence and performed better compared to a purely pixel-based modelling approach. Furthermore, our study showed that model performance increased as a function of enlarging the school catchment area, confirming the hypothesis that suitable environments for schistosomiasis transmission rarely occur at the location of survey measurements. PMID:26618326

  6. Environmental auditing: An approach for characterizing tropospheric ozone risk to forests

    SciTech Connect

    Hogsett, W.E.; Weber, J.E.; Tingey, D.; Herstrom, A.; Lee, E.H.; Laurence, J.A.

    1997-01-01

    The risk tropospheric ozone poses to forests in the United States dependents on the variation in ozone exposure across the forests and the various environmental and climate factors predominant in the region. All these factors have a spatial nature; an approach to characterization of ozone risk is presented that places ozone exposure-response functions for species as seedlings and model-simulated tree and stand responses in a spatial context using a geographical information systems (GIS). The GIS is used to aggregate factors considered important in a risk characterization: (1) estimated ozone exposures over forested regions, (2) measures of ozone effects on species` and stand growth, and (3) spatially distributed environmental, genetic, and exposure influences on species` response to ozone. The GIS-based risk characterization provides an estimation the extent and magnitude of the potential ozone impact on forests. A preliminary risk characterization demonstrating this considered only the eastern United States and only the limited empirical data quantifying the effect of ozone exposures on forest tree species as seedlings. The area-weighted response of the annual seedling biomass loss formed the basis for a sensitivity ranking: sensitive-aspen and black cherry (14%-33% biomass loss over 50% of their distribution); moderately sensitive-tulip popular, loblolly pine, eastern white pine, and sugar maple (5%-13% biomass loss); insensitive-Virginia pine and red maple (0%-1% loss). Future GIS-based risk characterizations will include process-based model simulations of the three- to 5-year growth response of individual species as large trees. The interactive nature of GIS provides a tool to explore consequences of the range of climate conditions across a species` distribution, forest management practices, changing ozone precursors, regulatory control strategies, and other factors influencing the spatial distribution of ozone over time. 43 refs., 11 figs., 3 tabs.

  7. Quantitative risk assessment for skin sensitisation: consideration of a simplified approach for hair dye ingredients.

    PubMed

    Goebel, Carsten; Diepgen, Thomas L; Krasteva, Maya; Schlatter, Harald; Nicolas, Jean-Francois; Blömeke, Brunhilde; Coenraads, Pieter Jan; Schnuch, Axel; Taylor, James S; Pungier, Jacquemine; Fautz, Rolf; Fuchs, Anne; Schuh, Werner; Gerberick, G Frank; Kimber, Ian

    2012-12-01

    With the availability of the local lymph node assay, and the ability to evaluate effectively the relative skin sensitizing potency of contact allergens, a model for quantitative-risk-assessment (QRA) has been developed. This QRA process comprises: (a) determination of a no-expected-sensitisation-induction-level (NESIL), (b) incorporation of sensitization-assessment-factors (SAFs) reflecting variations between subjects, product use patterns and matrices, and (c) estimation of consumer-exposure-level (CEL). Based on these elements an acceptable-exposure-level (AEL) can be calculated by dividing the NESIL of the product by individual SAFs. Finally, the AEL is compared with the CEL to judge about risks to human health. We propose a simplified approach to risk assessment of hair dye ingredients by making use of precise experimental product exposure data. This data set provides firmly established dose/unit area concentrations under relevant consumer use conditions referred to as the measured-exposure-level (MEL). For that reason a direct comparison is possible between the NESIL with the MEL as a proof-of-concept quantification of the risk of skin sensitization. This is illustrated here by reference to two specific hair dye ingredients p-phenylenediamine and resorcinol. Comparison of these robust and toxicologically relevant values is therefore considered an improvement versus a hazard-based classification of hair dye ingredients. PMID:23069142

  8. A Naive Bayes machine learning approach to risk prediction using censored, time-to-event data.

    PubMed

    Wolfson, Julian; Bandyopadhyay, Sunayan; Elidrisi, Mohamed; Vazquez-Benitez, Gabriela; Vock, David M; Musgrove, Donald; Adomavicius, Gediminas; Johnson, Paul E; O'Connor, Patrick J

    2015-09-20

    Predicting an individual's risk of experiencing a future clinical outcome is a statistical task with important consequences for both practicing clinicians and public health experts. Modern observational databases such as electronic health records provide an alternative to the longitudinal cohort studies traditionally used to construct risk models, bringing with them both opportunities and challenges. Large sample sizes and detailed covariate histories enable the use of sophisticated machine learning techniques to uncover complex associations and interactions, but observational databases are often 'messy', with high levels of missing data and incomplete patient follow-up. In this paper, we propose an adaptation of the well-known Naive Bayes machine learning approach to time-to-event outcomes subject to censoring. We compare the predictive performance of our method with the Cox proportional hazards model which is commonly used for risk prediction in healthcare populations, and illustrate its application to prediction of cardiovascular risk using an electronic health record dataset from a large Midwest integrated healthcare system. PMID:25980520

  9. Approach to Lipid Screening as a Risk Marker for Cardiovascular Disease in Pediatric Patients with Diabetes

    PubMed Central

    Law, Jennifer Rachel; Patel, Shipra; Spagnoli, Anna

    2011-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a well-known complication of diabetes mellitus (DM), and patients with DM are at an increased risk for early onset of CVD. Hyperglycemia is believed to be the primary mediator in premature development of atherosclerosis in patients with DM, but there are also derangements in cholesterol levels and inflammatory markers beyond the explanation of hyperglycemia. Although clinicians often screen for dyslipidemia as part of routine care for children and adolescents with DM, many do not feel comfortable treating this condition. Multiple guidelines exist to help clinicians with the prevention, screening, and treatment of CVD risk factors in pediatric patients with DM, but the guidelines do not always agree on screening intervals or medical treatment. Furthermore, the cost-effectiveness of medication use in this population has not been established. Research has advanced our understanding of the role of other biomarkers and radiologic studies of CVD risk, but these studies do not currently have a place in routine clinical practice. It is evident that the increased CVD risk in pediatric patients with DM is complex in origin and the optimal approach to managing dyslipidemia remains unclear. Therefore, an algorithm designed at the University of North Carolina (UNC), Division of Pediatric Endocrinology, is presented to help guide clinicians through screening and treatment of dyslipidemia in youth with DM. PMID:22649373

  10. Modified approach to use of DOE-STD-3009 example risk matrices.

    SciTech Connect

    Atwood, Ginger A.

    2008-04-01

    DOE-STD-3009, Preparation Guide for US Department of Energy Non-reactor Nuclear Facilities Documented Safety Analyses, identifies a methodology for selection of high risk accidents and hazard scenarios for Hazard Category 1, 2, and 3 Nuclear Facilities and their controls. It provides examples of risk matrices which can be used as a part of this methodology. It also states, 'There is no one correct approach or presentation'. Sandia has used a modified version of these examples to focus control selection on controls that provide the highest risk to the public and the workers. Sandia's matrix assigns a lower risk level to high probability, low consequence events that are covered by institutional safety programs. The objective of this paper is to serve as a point of discussion on the benefits of using this modification to the DOE-STD-3009 examples. The paper relates to the workshop subtopic of Lessons Learned and Hazards Analysis since it provides lessons learned in hazard analysis process at SNL.

  11. Incorporation of a risk analysis approach for the nuclear fuel cycle advanced transparency framework.

    SciTech Connect

    Mendez, Carmen Margarita; York, David L.; Inoue, Naoko; Kitabata, Takuya; Vugrin, Eric D.; Vugrin, Kay White; Rochau, Gary Eugene; Cleary, Virginia D.

    2007-05-01

    Proliferation resistance features that reduce the likelihood of diversion of nuclear materials from the civilian nuclear power fuel cycle are critical for a global nuclear future. A framework that monitors process information continuously can demonstrate the ability to resist proliferation by measuring and reducing diversion risk, thus ensuring the legitimate use of the nuclear fuel cycle. The automation of new nuclear facilities requiring minimal manual operation makes this possible by generating instantaneous system state data that can be used to track and measure the status of the process and material at any given time. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) are working in cooperation to develop an advanced transparency framework capable of assessing diversion risk in support of overall plant transparency. The ''diversion risk'' quantifies the probability and consequence of a host nation diverting nuclear materials from a civilian fuel cycle facility. This document introduces the details of the diversion risk quantification approach to be demonstrated in the fuel handling training model of the MONJU Fast Reactor.

  12. A Serial Risk Score Approach to Disease Classification that Accounts for Accuracy and Cost

    PubMed Central

    Huynh, Dat; Laeyendecker, Oliver; Brookmeyer, Ron

    2016-01-01

    Summary The performance of diagnostic tests for disease classification is often measured by accuracy (e.g. sensitivity or specificity); however, costs of the diagnostic test are a concern as well. Combinations of multiple diagnostic tests may improve accuracy, but incur additional costs. Here we consider serial testing approaches that maintain accuracy while controlling costs of the diagnostic tests. We present a serial risk score classification approach. The basic idea is to sequentially test with additional diagnostic tests just until persons are classified. In this way, it is not necessary to test all persons with all tests. The methods are studied in simulations and compared with logistic regression. We applied the methods to data from HIV cohort studies to identify HIV infected individuals who are recently infected (< 1 year) by testing with assays for multiple biomarkers. We find that the serial risk score classification approach can maintain accuracy while achieving a reduction in cost compared to testing all individuals with all assays. PMID:25156309

  13. Constructing a holistic approach to disaster risk reduction: the significance of focusing on vulnerability reduction.

    PubMed

    Palliyaguru, Roshani; Amaratunga, Dilanthi; Baldry, David

    2014-01-01

    As a result of the increase in natural disaster losses, policy-makers, practitioners, and members of the research community around the world are seeking effective and efficient means of overcoming or minimising them. Although various theoretical constructs are beneficial to understanding the disaster phenomenon and the means of minimising losses, the disaster risk management process becomes less effective if theory and practice are set apart from one another. Consequently, this paper seeks to establish a relationship between two theoretical constructs, 'disaster risk reduction (DRR)' and 'vulnerability reduction', and to develop a holistic approach to DRR with particular reference to improving its applicability in practical settings. It is based on a literature review and on an overall understanding gained through two case studies of post-disaster infrastructure reconstruction projects in Sri Lanka and three expert interviews in Sri Lanka and the United Kingdom. PMID:24325238

  14. Risk management approach for de-orbiting of the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmed, Mansoor; Mangus, David; Burch, Preston

    2001-10-01

    De-orbiting of space debris into Earth is one of the methods to control and minimize the degradation of the space environment. The de-orbiting scenario poses a challenge of providing safety for the Earth population and other space-based assets below the orbit track of the spacecraft being de-orbited. Rigorous risk management is needed to provide the necessary safety margin for de-orbit operations. These challenges were faced during the controlled de-orbit of the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO) into the Pacific Ocean on June 4, 2000. This paper presents a risk management approach utilized at various stages of this mission; processes used to identify credible contingencies; and planned responses to contingencies for use during mission execution.

  15. A risk-based approach to managing active pharmaceutical ingredients in manufacturing effluent.

    PubMed

    Caldwell, Daniel J; Mertens, Birgit; Kappler, Kelly; Senac, Thomas; Journel, Romain; Wilson, Peter; Meyerhoff, Roger D; Parke, Neil J; Mastrocco, Frank; Mattson, Bengt; Murray-Smith, Richard; Dolan, David G; Straub, Jürg Oliver; Wiedemann, Michael; Hartmann, Andreas; Finan, Douglas S

    2016-04-01

    The present study describes guidance intended to assist pharmaceutical manufacturers in assessing, mitigating, and managing the potential environmental impacts of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) in wastewater from manufacturing operations, including those from external suppliers. The tools are not a substitute for compliance with local regulatory requirements but rather are intended to help manufacturers achieve the general standard of "no discharge of APIs in toxic amounts." The approaches detailed in the present study identify practices for assessing potential environmental risks from APIs in manufacturing effluent and outline measures that can be used to reduce the risk, including selective application of available treatment technologies. These measures either are commonly employed within the industry or have been implemented to a more limited extent based on local circumstances. Much of the material is based on company experience and case studies discussed at an industry workshop held on this topic. PMID:26183919

  16. Observing quantum gravity in asymptotically AdS space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emelyanov, Slava

    2015-12-01

    The question is studied of whether an observer can discover quantum gravity in the semiclassical regime. It is shown that it is indeed possible to probe a certain quantum gravity effect by employing an appropriately designed detector. The effect is related to the possibility of having topologically inequivalent geometries in the path-integral approach at the same time. A conformal field theory (CFT) state which is expected to describe the eternal anti-de Sitter (AdS) black hole in the large-N limit is discussed. It is argued under certain assumptions that the black hole boundary should be merely a patch of the entire AdS boundary. This leads then to a conclusion that that CFT state is the ordinary CFT vacuum restricted to that patch. If existent, the bulk CFT operators can behave as the ordinary semiclassical quantum field theory in the large-N limit in the weak sense.

  17. Semiclassical Virasoro blocks from AdS3 gravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hijano, Eliot; Kraus, Per; Perlmutter, Eric; Snively, River

    2015-12-01

    We present a unified framework for the holographic computation of Virasoro conformal blocks at large central charge. In particular, we provide bulk constructions that correctly reproduce all semiclassical Virasoro blocks that are known explicitly from conformal field theory computations. The results revolve around the use of geodesic Witten diagrams, recently introduced in [1], evaluated in locally AdS3 geometries generated by backreaction of heavy operators. We also provide an alternative computation of the heavy-light semiclassical block — in which two external operators become parametrically heavy — as a certain scattering process involving higher spin gauge fields in AdS3; this approach highlights the chiral nature of Virasoro blocks. These techniques may be systematically extended to compute corrections to these blocks and to interpolate amongst the different semiclassical regimes.

  18. Smeared antibranes polarise in AdS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gautason, Fridrik Freyr; Truijen, Brecht; Van Riet, Thomas

    2015-07-01

    In the recent literature it has been questioned whether the local backreaction of antibranes in flux throats can induce a perturbative brane-flux decay. Most evidence for this can be gathered for D6 branes and D p branes smeared over 6 - p compact directions, in line with the absence of finite temperature solutions for these cases. The solutions in the literature have flat worldvolume geometries and non-compact transversal spaces. In this paper we consider what happens when the worldvolume is AdS and the transversal space is compact. We show that in these circumstances brane polarisation smoothens out the flux singularity, which is an indication that brane-flux decay is prevented. This is consistent with the fact that the cosmological constant would be less negative after brane-flux decay. Our results extend recent results on AdS7 solutions from D6 branes to AdS p+1 solutions from D p branes. We show that supersymmetry of the AdS solutions depend on p non-trivially.

  19. Why we need new approaches to low-dose risk modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Alvarez, J.L.; Seiler, F.A.

    1996-06-01

    The linear no-threshold model for radiation effects was introduced as a conservative model for the design of radiation protection programs. The model has persisted not only as the basis for such programs, but has come to be treated as a dogma and is often confused with scientific fact. In this examination a number of serious problems with the linear no-threshold model of radiation carcinogenesis were demonstrated, many of them invalidating the hypothesis. It was shown that the relative risk formalism did not approach 1 as the dose approaches zero. When morality ratios were used instead, the data in the region below 0.3 Sv were systematically below the predictions of the linear model. It was also shown that the data above 0.3 Sv were of little use in formulating a model at low doses. In addition, these data are valid only for doses accumulated at high dose rates, and there is no scientific justification for using the model in low-dose, low-dose-rate extrapolations for purposes of radiation protection. Further examination of model fits to the Japanese survivor data were attempted. Several such models were fit to the data including an unconstrained linear, linear-square root, and Weibull, all of which fit the data better than the relative risk, linear no-threshold model. These fits were used to demonstrate that the linear model systematically over estimates the risk at low doses in the Japanese survivor data set. It is recommended here that an unbiased re-analysis of the data be undertaken and the results used to construct a new model, based on all pertinent data. This model could then form the basis for managing radiation risks in the appropriate regions of dose and dose rate.

  20. A systematic conservation planning approach to fire risk management in Natura 2000 sites.

    PubMed

    Foresta, Massimiliano; Carranza, Maria Laura; Garfì, Vittorio; Di Febbraro, Mirko; Marchetti, Marco; Loy, Anna

    2016-10-01

    A primary challenge in conservation biology is to preserve the most representative biodiversity while simultaneously optimizing the efforts associated with conservation. In Europe, the implementation of the Natura 2000 network requires protocols to recognize and map threats to biodiversity and to identify specific mitigation actions. We propose a systematic conservation planning approach to optimize management actions against specific threats based on two fundamental parameters: biodiversity values and threat pressure. We used the conservation planning software Marxan to optimize a fire management plan in a Natura 2000 coastal network in southern Italy. We address three primary questions: i) Which areas are at high fire risk? ii) Which areas are the most valuable for threatened biodiversity? iii) Which areas should receive priority risk-mitigation actions for the optimal effect?, iv) which fire-prevention actions are feasible in the management areas?. The biodiversity values for the Natura 2000 spatial units were derived from the distribution maps of 18 habitats and 89 vertebrate species of concern in Europe (Habitat Directive 92/43/EEC). The threat pressure map, defined as fire probability, was obtained from digital layers of fire risk and of fire frequency. Marxan settings were defined as follows: a) planning units of 40 × 40 m, b) conservation features defined as all habitats and vertebrate species of European concern occurring in the study area, c) conservation targets defined according with fire sensitivity and extinction risk of conservation features, and d) costs determined as the complement of fire probabilities. We identified 23 management areas in which to concentrate efforts for the optimal reduction of fire-induced effects. Because traditional fire prevention is not feasible for most of policy habitats included in the management areas, alternative prevention practices were identified that allows the conservation of the vegetation structure. The

  1. Interdisciplinary approach for disaster risk reduction in Valtellina Valley, northern Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia, Carolina; Blahut, Jan; Luna, Byron Quan; Poretti, Ilaria; Camera, Corrado; de Amicis, Mattia; Sterlacchini, Simone

    2010-05-01

    Inside the framework of the European research network Mountain Risks, an interdisciplinary research group has been working in the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (northern Italy). This area has been continuously affected by several mountain hazards such as landslides, debris flows and floods that directly affect the population, and in some cases caused several deaths and million euros of losses. An aim of the interdisciplinary work in this study area, is to integrate different scientific products of the research group, in the areas of risk assessment, management and governance, in order to generate, among others, risk reduction tools addressed to general public and stakeholders. Two types of phenomena have been particularly investigated: debris flows and floods. The scientific products range from modeling to mapping of hazard and risk, emergency planning based on real time decision support systems, surveying for the evaluation of risk perception and preparedness, among others. Outputs from medium scale hazard and risk modeling could be used for decision makers and spatial planners as well as civil protection authorities to have a general overview of the area and indentify hot spots for further detailed analysis. Subsequently, local scale analysis is necessary to define possible events and risk scenarios for emergency planning. As for the modeling of past events and new scenarios of debris flows, physical outputs were used as inputs into physical vulnerability assessment and quantitative risk analysis within dynamic runout models. On a pilot zone, the physical damage was quantified for each affected structure within the context of physical vulnerability and different empirical vulnerability curves were obtained. Prospective economic direct losses were estimated. For floods hazard assessment, different approaches and models are being tested, in order to produce flood maps for various return periods, and related to registered rainfalls

  2. AdS orbifolds and Penrose limits

    SciTech Connect

    Alishahiha, Mohsen; Sheikh-Jabbari, Mohammad M.; Tatar, Radu

    2002-12-09

    In this paper we study the Penrose limit of AdS{sub 5} orbifolds. The orbifold can be either in the pure spatial directions or space and time directions. For the AdS{sub 5}/{Lambda} x S{sup 5} spatial orbifold we observe that after the Penrose limit we obtain the same result as the Penrose limit of AdS{sub 5} x S{sup 5}/{Lambda}. We identify the corresponding BMN operators in terms of operators of the gauge theory on R x S{sup 3}/{Lambda}. The semi-classical description of rotating strings in these backgrounds have also been studied. For the spatial AdS orbifold we show that in the quadratic order the obtained action for the fluctuations is the same as that in S{sup 5} orbifold, however, the higher loop correction can distinguish between two cases.

  3. [Uncertainty characterization approaches for ecological risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon in Taihu Lake].

    PubMed

    Guo, Guang-Hui; Wu, Feng-Chang; He, Hong-Ping; Feng, Cheng-Lian; Zhang, Rui-Qing; Li, Hui-Xian

    2012-04-01

    Probabilistic approaches, such as Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), and non-probabilistic approaches, such as interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and variance propagation, were used to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake. The results from MCS and LHS were represented by probability distributions of hazard quotients of sigma PAH8 in surface waters of Taihu Lake. The probabilistic distribution of hazard quotient were obtained from the results of MCS and LHS based on probabilistic theory, which indicated that the confidence intervals of hazard quotient at 90% confidence level were in the range of 0.000 18-0.89 and 0.000 17-0.92, with the mean of 0.37 and 0.35, respectively. In addition, the probabilities that the hazard quotients from MCS and LHS exceed the threshold of 1 were 9.71% and 9.68%, respectively. The sensitivity analysis suggested the toxicity data contributed the most to the resulting distribution of quotients. The hazard quotient of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms ranged from 0.000 17 to 0.99 using interval analysis. The confidence interval was (0.001 5, 0.016 3) at the 90% confidence level calculated using fuzzy set theory, and the confidence interval was (0.000 16, 0.88) at the 90% confidence level based on the variance propagation. These results indicated that the ecological risk of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms were low. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations, which was based on different theory; therefore, the appropriate method should be selected on a case-by-case to quantify the effects of uncertainties on the ecological risk assessment. Approach based on the probabilistic theory was selected as the most appropriate method to assess the risk of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake, which provided an important scientific foundation of risk management and control for organic pollutants in water. PMID:22720551

  4. Fuzzy logic and a risk-based graded approach for developing S/RIDs: An introduction

    SciTech Connect

    Wayland, J.R.

    1996-01-01

    A Standards/Requirements Identification Document (S/RID) is the set of expressed performance expectations, or standards, for a facility. Critical to the development of an integrated standards-based management is the identification of a set of necessary and sufficient standards from a selected set of standards/requirements. There is a need for a formal, rigorous selection process for the S/RIDs. This is the first of three reports that develop a fuzzy logic selection process. In this report the fundamentals of fuzzy logic are discussed as they apply to a risk-based graded approach.

  5. On Value at Risk for Foreign Exchange Rates --- the Copula Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaworski, P.

    2006-11-01

    The aim of this paper is to determine the Value at Risk (VaR) of the portfolio consisting of long positions in foreign currencies on an emerging market. Basing on empirical data we restrict ourselves to the case when the tail parts of distributions of logarithmic returns of these assets follow the power laws and the lower tail of associated copula C follows the power law of degree 1. We will illustrate the practical usefulness of this approach by the analysis of the exchange rates of EUR and CHF at the Polish forex market.

  6. Approaches to Quality Risk Management When Using Single-Use Systems in the Manufacture of Biologics.

    PubMed

    Ishii-Watabe, Akiko; Hirose, Akihiko; Katori, Noriko; Hashii, Norikata; Arai, Susumu; Awatsu, Hirotoshi; Eiza, Akira; Hara, Yoshiaki; Hattori, Hideshi; Inoue, Tomomi; Isono, Tetsuya; Iwakura, Masahiro; Kajihara, Daisuke; Kasahara, Nobuo; Matsuda, Hiroyuki; Murakami, Sei; Nakagawa, Taishiro; Okumura, Takehiro; Omasa, Takeshi; Takuma, Shinya; Terashima, Iyo; Tsukahara, Masayoshi; Tsutsui, Maiko; Yano, Takahiro; Kawasaki, Nana

    2015-10-01

    Biologics manufacturing technology has made great progress in the last decade. One of the most promising new technologies is the single-use system, which has improved the efficiency of biologics manufacturing processes. To ensure safety of biologics when employing such single-use systems in the manufacturing process, various issues need to be considered including possible extractables/leachables and particles arising from the components used in single-use systems. Japanese pharmaceutical manufacturers, together with single-use suppliers, members of the academia and regulatory authorities have discussed the risks of using single-use systems and established control strategies for the quality assurance of biologics. In this study, we describe approaches for quality risk management when employing single-use systems in the manufacturing of biologics. We consider the potential impact of impurities related to single-use components on drug safety and the potential impact of the single-use system on other critical quality attributes as well as the stable supply of biologics. We also suggest a risk-mitigating strategy combining multiple control methods which includes the selection of appropriate single-use components, their inspections upon receipt and before releasing for use and qualification of single-use systems. Communication between suppliers of single-use systems and the users, as well as change controls in the facilities both of suppliers and users, are also important in risk-mitigating strategies. Implementing these control strategies can mitigate the risks attributed to the use of single-use systems. This study will be useful in promoting the development of biologics as well as in ensuring their safety, quality and stable supply. PMID:26288941

  7. TERRORIST PROTECTION PLANNING USING A RELATIVE RISK REDUCTION APPROACH, SESSION VIII: TECHNOLOGY FORUM FOCUS GROUPS.

    SciTech Connect

    INDUSI,J.P.

    2003-06-16

    Since the events of 9/11, there have been considerable concerns and associated efforts to prevent or respond to acts of terrorism. Very often we hear calls to reduce the threat from or correct vulnerabilities to various terrorist acts. Others fall victim to anxiety over potential scenarios with the gravest of consequences involving hundreds of thousands of casualties. The problem is complicated by the fact that planners have limited, albeit in some cases significant, resources and less than perfect intelligence on potential terrorist plans. However, valuable resources must be used prudently to reduce the overall risk to the nation. A systematic approach to this process of asset allocation is to reduce the overall risk and not just an individual element of risk such as vulnerabilities. Hence, we define risk as a function of three variables: the threat (the likelihood and scenario of the terrorist act), the vulnerability (the vulnerability of potential targets to the threat), and the consequences (health and safety, economic, etc.) resulting from a successful terrorist scenario. Both the vulnerability and consequences from a postulated adversary scenario can be reasonably well estimated. However, the threat likelihood and scenarios are much more difficult to estimate. A possible path forward is to develop scenarios for each potential target in question using experts from many disciplines. This should yield a finite but large number of target-scenario pairs. The vulnerabilities and consequences for each are estimated and then ranked relative to one another. The resulting relative risk ranking will have targets near the top of the ranking for which the threat is estimated to be more likely, the vulnerability greatest, and the consequences the most grave. In the absence of perfect intelligence, this may be the best we can do.

  8. Models of personality and disease: an interactional approach to type A behavior and cardiovascular risk.

    PubMed

    Smith, T W; Anderson, N B

    1986-06-01

    Type A behavior has been established as a risk factor for coronary heart disease. Enhanced cardiovascular and neuroendocrine responsiveness to stressors has been suggested as a pathophysiological link between the behavior pattern and disease. The present article describes a model that places this link in an interactional context. Specifically, it is hypothesized that via cognitive and overt behaviors, Type As construct a subjective and objective environment rich in those classes of stimuli known to elicit enhanced physiological reactivity. This approach differs from previous ones by emphasizing that the Type A pattern represents an ongoing process of challenge and demand engendering behavior. That is, Type A persons do not simply respond to challenges and demands; they seek and create them through their cognitions and actions. This constructed environment also elicits and maintains further Type A behavior. The present view of Type A behavior as a challenge and demand engendering style is contrasted with other conceptual approaches, and implications are discussed. PMID:3723333

  9. Dependence and risk assessment for oil prices and exchange rate portfolios: A wavelet based approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania

    2015-10-01

    In this article, we propose a wavelet-based approach to accommodate the stylized facts and complex structure of financial data, caused by frequent and abrupt changes of markets and noises. Specifically, we show how the combination of both continuous and discrete wavelet transforms with traditional financial models helps improve portfolio's market risk assessment. In the empirical stage, three wavelet-based models (wavelet-EGARCH with dynamic conditional correlations, wavelet-copula, and wavelet-extreme value) are considered and applied to crude oil price and US dollar exchange rate data. Our findings show that the wavelet-based approach provides an effective and powerful tool for detecting extreme moments and improving the accuracy of VaR and Expected Shortfall estimates of oil-exchange rate portfolios after noise is removed from the original data.

  10. The TACO approach to establishing risk-based corrective action objectives for a former industrial facility

    SciTech Connect

    Pope, J.L.; Nienkerk, M.M.

    1999-07-01

    Illinois' Tiered Approach to Corrective Action Objectives (35 Ill Adm Code Part 742) regulations have been used to evaluate site-specific remediation objectives for a site contaminated with methylene chloride. Remediation objectives evaluated through this approach have provided the opportunity to implement a technically feasible cleanup of the site. Site-specific soil cleanup objectives of 24 milligrams per kilogram (mg/kg) for the unsaturated soils and 2,000 mg/kg for the underlying saturated soils were established. These cleanup objectives were based on the use of a city ordinance prohibiting well installation and groundwater use within one-half mile of the site and did not require the use of an engineered barrier which would have to be maintained throughout the life of the facility. Without the city ordinance and risk-based cleanup objectives, the cleanup objective would have been 0.02 mg/kg, making remediation of the site technically and economically infeasible.

  11. Different phases of hairy black holes in AdS5 space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giribet, Gaston; Goya, Andrés; Oliva, Julio

    2015-02-01

    We investigate the thermodynamics of hairy black holes in asymptotically anti-de Sitter (AdS) space, including backreaction. Resorting to the Euclidean path integral approach, we show that matter conformally coupled to Einstein gravity in five dimensions may exhibit a phase transition whose endpoint turns out to be a hairy black hole in AdS5 space. The scalar field configuration happens to be regular everywhere outside and on the horizon and behaves asymptotically in such a way that respects the AdS boundary conditions that are relevant for AdS/CFT. The theory presents other peculiar features in the ultraviolet, like the existence of black holes with arbitrarily low temperature in AdS5 . This provides a simple setup in which the fully backreacting problem of a hair forming in AdS at a certain critical temperature can be solved analytically.

  12. [Usability first. Model-based approach for the use-oriented risk analysis of medical devices].

    PubMed

    Janß, A; Radermacher, K

    2014-12-01

    Due to increasing automation, the number and complexity of technical components have increased in the medical context (e.g., in the clinic or in the home care sector) in recent years. Besides new effective and efficient therapeutic and diagnostic options, these devices entail a wide range of functions and very complex (often computer-based) user interfaces that may lead to human-induced risk potential. A systematic and early human risk analysis and a usability evaluation allow medical device manufacturers to identify and control risks within the human-machine interaction very efficiently. At the Department of Medical Engineering in the Helmholtz Institute for Biomedical Engineering at the RWTH Aachen University, a formal-analytical methodology and a corresponding software tool for prospective human-risk analysis and model-based usability evaluation has been developed. Based on a twofold approach, user interactive process sequences and their potential impacts on the overall process are identified and the resulting use-related risks are assessed. For this, the tasks are categorized (in system and user tasks) and modeled and temporally related within the framework of a high-level task analysis. Within a subsequent cognitive low-level task analysis, potentially critical parallel process sequences are then tested in order to detect a potential resource overload of the user. The subsequent corresponding human-risk analysis is developed according to a knowledge base (checklist) of taxonomies related to human error. The HiFEM (human-function effect modeling) methodology is universally applicable and can be used for the evaluation of human-computer interfaces as well as for the analysis of purely mechanical control interfaces and simple hand-held instruments (such as a scalpel and implant). In a comparative study, the HiFEM method clearly outperforms the classic FMEA (failure modes and effects analysis) process with regard to effectiveness, efficiency, learnability, and

  13. Approaches for the Application of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Models and Supporting Data in Risk Assessment (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This final report, Approaches for the Application of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Models and Supporting Data in Risk Assessment addresses the application and evaluation of PBPK models for risk assessment purposes. These models represent an important class o...

  14. Introducing a Transdisciplinary Approach in Studies regarding Risk Assessment and Management in Educational Programs for Environmental Engineers and Planners

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Menoni, Scira

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to discuss how long term risk prevention and civil protection may enter in university programs for environmental engineers and urban and regional planners. Design/methodology/approach: First the distinction between long term risk prevention and emergency preparedness is made, showing that while the first has…

  15. Considerations for Developing Alternative Health Risk Assessment Approaches for Addressing Multiple Chemicals, Exposures and Effect (External Review Draft)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report is not guidance but rather a presentation of concepts that could assist the development of guidance. It presents risk assessment approaches and information on a subset of issues that are identified in the 2003 Framework for Cumulative Risk Assessment. The seque...

  16. Promoting Service User Inclusion in Risk Assessment and Management: A Pilot Project Developing a Human Rights-Based Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greenhill, Beth; Whitehead, Richard

    2011-01-01

    Recent reports highlight the extent to which many people with learning disabilities are not afforded access to their basic human rights. In addition, traditional approaches to risk management often focus on professional assessments of risks and challenging behaviour and exclude service user perspectives. In this paper, we outline what we believe…

  17. Out-of-School Care and Problem Behavior Trajectories Among Low-Income Adolescents: Individual, Family, and Neighborhood Characteristics as Added Risks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coley, Rebekah Levine; Morris, Jodi Eileen; Hernandez, Daphne

    2004-01-01

    Using a developmental systems approach, this study considered longitudinal links between adolescents' out-of-school care experiences and behavioral trajectories within a random sample of 819 adolescents ages 10 to 14 years at Wave 1 from low-income, urban families. Multiple aspects of context were considered, including the location, supervision,…

  18. Effect of Adding McKenzie Syndrome, Centralization, Directional Preference, and Psychosocial Classification Variables to a Risk-Adjusted Model Predicting Functional Status Outcomes for Patients With Lumbar Impairments.

    PubMed

    Werneke, Mark W; Edmond, Susan; Deutscher, Daniel; Ward, Jason; Grigsby, David; Young, Michelle; McGill, Troy; McClenahan, Brian; Weinberg, Jon; Davidow, Amy L

    2016-09-01

    Study Design Retrospective cohort. Background Patient-classification subgroupings may be important prognostic factors explaining outcomes. Objectives To determine effects of adding classification variables (McKenzie syndrome and pain patterns, including centralization and directional preference; Symptom Checklist Back Pain Prediction Model [SCL BPPM]; and the Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire subscales of work and physical activity) to a baseline risk-adjusted model predicting functional status (FS) outcomes. Methods Consecutive patients completed a battery of questionnaires that gathered information on 11 risk-adjustment variables. Physical therapists trained in Mechanical Diagnosis and Therapy methods classified each patient by McKenzie syndromes and pain pattern. Functional status was assessed at discharge by patient-reported outcomes. Only patients with complete data were included. Risk of selection bias was assessed. Prediction of discharge FS was assessed using linear stepwise regression models, allowing 13 variables to enter the model. Significant variables were retained in subsequent models. Model power (R(2)) and beta coefficients for model variables were estimated. Results Two thousand sixty-six patients with lumbar impairments were evaluated. Of those, 994 (48%), 10 (<1%), and 601 (29%) were excluded due to incomplete psychosocial data, McKenzie classification data, and missing FS at discharge, respectively. The final sample for analyses was 723 (35%). Overall R(2) for the baseline prediction FS model was 0.40. Adding classification variables to the baseline model did not result in significant increases in R(2). McKenzie syndrome or pain pattern explained 2.8% and 3.0% of the variance, respectively. When pain pattern and SCL BPPM were added simultaneously, overall model R(2) increased to 0.44. Although none of these increases in R(2) were significant, some classification variables were stronger predictors compared with some other variables included in

  19. Reconstruction of flood events based on documentary data and transnational flood risk analysis of the Upper Rhine and its French and German tributaries since AD 1480

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Himmelsbach, I.; Glaser, R.; Schoenbein, J.; Riemann, D.; Martin, B.

    2015-10-01

    This paper presents the long-term analysis of flood occurrence along the southern part of the Upper Rhine River system and of 14 of its tributaries in France and Germany covering the period starting from 1480 BC. Special focus is given on the temporal and spatial variations of flood events and their underlying meteorological causes over time. Examples are presented of how long-term information about flood events and knowledge about the historical aspect of flood protection in a given area can help to improve the understanding of risk analysis and therefor transnational risk management. Within this context, special focus is given to flood vulnerability while comparing selected historical and modern extreme events, establishing a common evaluation scheme. The transnational aspect becomes especially evident analyzing the tributaries: on this scale, flood protection developed impressively different on the French and German sides. We argue that comparing high technological standards of flood protection, which were initiated by the dukes of Baden on the German side starting in the early 19th century, misled people to the common belief that the mechanical means of flood protection like dams and barrages can guarantee the security from floods and their impacts. This lead to widespread settlements and the establishment of infrastructure as well as modern industries in potentially unsafe areas until today. The legal status in Alsace on the French side of the Rhine did not allow for continuous flood protection measurements, leading to a constant - and probably at last annoying - reminder that the floodplains are a potentially unsafe place to be. From a modern perspective of flood risk management, this leads to a significant lower aggregation of value in the floodplains of the small rivers in Alsace compared to those on the Baden side - an interesting fact - especially if the modern European Flood directive is taken into account.

  20. An ultra-wide bandwidth-based range/GPS tight integration approach for relative positioning in vehicular ad hoc networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Feng; Wayn Cheong, Joon; Dempster, Andrew G.

    2015-04-01

    Relative position awareness is a vital premise for the implementation of emerging intelligent transportation systems, such as collision warning. However, commercial global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) receivers do not satisfy the requirements of these applications. Fortunately, cooperative positioning (CP) techniques, through sharing the GNSS measurements between vehicles, can improve the performance of relative positioning in a vehicular ad hoc network (VANET). In this paper, while assuming there are no obstacles between vehicles, a new enhanced tightly coupled CP technique is presented by adding ultra-wide bandwidth (UWB)-based inter-vehicular range measurements. In the proposed CP method, each vehicle fuses the GPS measurements and the inter-vehicular range measurements. Based on analytical and experimental results, in the full GPS coverage environment, the new tight integration CP method outperforms the INS-aided tight CP method, tight CP method, and DGPS by 11%, 15%, and 24%, respectively; in the GPS outage scenario, the performance improvement achieves 60%, 65%, and 73%, respectively.

  1. A tiered, probabilistic approach for defining allowable contaminant releases based on risk

    SciTech Connect

    Webb, E.; Beyeler, W.; Davis, P.; Duran, F.; Greenblott, J.

    1995-12-31

    Modification to federal environmental regulations has been strongly advocated by some who feel that current regulations dictate large costs to solve problems that pose no risk. Consequently, regulators are faced with re-assessing existing regulations and the process for developing new regulations. The authors will present a multi-tiered, hierarchical approach that addresses both regulatory safety and associated costs. In this approach, regulatory compliance can be demonstrated by performing one of several sets of calculations. For example in a three tiered approach, the first tier might consist of conservative models and parameters developed by the regulatory agency with the applicant providing only information on the source of contamination. If these first tier calculations show regulatory compliance then work is complete. If the site fails, the applicant can either perform a second tier calculation or initiate remediation. A second tier calculation might require identification and justification of site-specific parameters but use the same tier one models. If the site fails then a third tier analysis can be performed using site-specific parameters and site-specific models. As models or parameters change in later tier calculations they must be documented and justified by the applicant. This approach maintains regulatory protectiveness, imposes small costs on simple, safe sites, and allows the applicant flexibility. Careful design of the models and parameters for each tier of the hierarchy is critical. A probabilistic approach can be designed to allow regulators to choose the balance between safety and overall regulatory cost, while allowing applicants to control compliance costs by tailoring their regulatory approach to site conditions.

  2. Risk newsboy: approach for addressing uncertainty in developing action levels and cleanup limits

    SciTech Connect

    Cooke, Roger; MacDonell, Margaret

    2007-07-01

    Site cleanup decisions involve developing action levels and residual limits for key contaminants, to assure health protection during the cleanup period and into the long term. Uncertainty is inherent in the toxicity information used to define these levels, based on incomplete scientific knowledge regarding dose-response relationships across various hazards and exposures at environmentally relevant levels. This problem can be addressed by applying principles used to manage uncertainty in operations research, as illustrated by the newsboy dilemma. Each day a newsboy must balance the risk of buying more papers than he can sell against the risk of not buying enough. Setting action levels and cleanup limits involves a similar concept of balancing and distributing risks and benefits in the face of uncertainty. The newsboy approach can be applied to develop health-based target concentrations for both radiological and chemical contaminants, with stakeholder input being crucial to assessing 'regret' levels. Associated tools include structured expert judgment elicitation to quantify uncertainty in the dose-response relationship, and mathematical techniques such as probabilistic inversion and iterative proportional fitting. (authors)

  3. Biomechanical approaches to identify and quantify injury mechanisms and risk factors in women's artistic gymnastics.

    PubMed

    Bradshaw, Elizabeth J; Hume, Patria A

    2012-09-01

    Targeted injury prevention strategies, based on biomechanical analyses, have the potential to help reduce the incidence and severity of gymnastics injuries. This review outlines the potential benefits of biomechanics research to contribute to injury prevention strategies for women's artistic gymnastics by identification of mechanisms of injury and quantification of the effects of injury risk factors. One hundred and twenty-three articles were retained for review after searching electronic databases using key words, including 'gymnastic', 'biomech*', and 'inj*', and delimiting by language and relevance to the paper aim. Impact load can be measured biomechanically by the use of instrumented equipment (e.g. beatboard), instrumentation on the gymnast (accelerometers), or by landings on force plates. We need further information on injury mechanisms and risk factors in gymnastics and practical methods of monitoring training loads. We have not yet shown, beyond a theoretical approach, how biomechanical analysis of gymnastics can help reduce injury risk through injury prevention interventions. Given the high magnitude of impact load, both acute and accumulative, coaches should monitor impact loads per training session, taking into consideration training quality and quantity such as the control of rotation and the height from which the landings are executed. PMID:23072044

  4. Risk based approach for design and optimization of stomach specific delivery of rifampicin.

    PubMed

    Vora, Chintan; Patadia, Riddhish; Mittal, Karan; Mashru, Rajashree

    2013-10-15

    The research envisaged focuses on risk management approach for better recognizing the risks, ways to mitigate them and propose a control strategy for the development of rifampicin gastroretentive tablets. Risk assessment using failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) was done to depict the effects of specific failure modes related to respective formulation/process variable. A Box-Behnken design was used to investigate the effect of amount of sodium bicarbonate (X1), pore former HPMC (X2) and glyceryl behenate (X3) on percent drug release at 1st hour (Q1), 4th hour (Q4), 8th hour (Q8) and floating lag time (min). Main effects and interaction plots were generated to study effects of variables. Selection of the optimized formulation was done using desirability function and overlay contour plots. The optimized formulation exhibited Q1 of 20.9%, Q4 of 59.1%, Q8 of 94.8% and floating lag time of 4.0 min. Akaike information criteria and Model selection criteria revealed that the model was best described by Korsmeyer-Peppas power law. The residual plots demonstrated no existence of non-normality, skewness or outliers. The composite desirability for optimized formulation computed using equations and software were 0.84 and 0.86 respectively. FTIR, DSC and PXRD studies ruled out drug polymer interaction due to thermal treatment. PMID:23916823

  5. A risk-mitigation approach to the management of induced seismicity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bommer, Julian J.; Crowley, Helen; Pinho, Rui

    2015-04-01

    Earthquakes may be induced by a wide range of anthropogenic activities such as mining, fluid injection and extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. In recent years, the increased occurrence of induced seismicity and the impact of some of these earthquakes on the built environment have heightened both public concern and regulatory scrutiny, motivating the need for a framework for the management of induced seismicity. Efforts to develop systems to enable control of seismicity have not yet resulted in solutions that can be applied with confidence in most cases. The more rational approach proposed herein is based on applying the same risk quantification and mitigation measures that are applied to the hazard from natural seismicity. This framework allows informed decision-making regarding the conduct of anthropogenic activities that may cause earthquakes. The consequent risk, if related to non-structural damage (when re-location is not an option), can be addressed by appropriate financial compensation. If the risk poses a threat to life and limb, then it may be reduced through the application of strengthening measures in the built environment—the cost of which can be balanced against the economic benefits of the activity in question—rather than attempting to ensure that some threshold on earthquake magnitude or ground-shaking amplitude is not exceeded. However, because of the specific characteristics of induced earthquakes—which may occur in regions with little or no natural seismicity—the procedures used in standard earthquake engineering need adaptation and modification for application to induced seismicity.

  6. An approach to occupational health risk management for a diversified international corporation.

    PubMed

    Andersen, G H; Smith, A C; Daigle, L T

    1989-04-01

    A risk management program is presented which is effective in handling occupational health risks in a diversified multinational corporation. The three-step program of plant reviews involves initial assessment visits designed to determine the compliance status and degree of sophistication of the occupational health program. These assessments are followed by more formal assurance reviews which include consultation, training, and program support. Finally, formal surveillance reviews are conducted to verify compliance with respect to company and regulatory agency requirements. Each type of review requires planning and adherence to a standardized process to allow comparability of the information generated. Critical elements of this approach include senior management support, knowledge of applicable regulations, and communication of results. Reporting is done on several levels and is designed to communicate relevant information to management from line supervisors to the board of directors. Corrective action, where indicated, is planned by local managers with assistance from other groups as required. Corrective action plan implementation is tracked in conjunction with other mechanisms of occupational health and medical services to assure effective management of these risks. PMID:2705370

  7. New approaches to uncertainty analysis for use in aggregate and cumulative risk assessment of pesticides.

    PubMed

    Kennedy, Marc C; van der Voet, Hilko; Roelofs, Victoria J; Roelofs, Willem; Glass, C Richard; de Boer, Waldo J; Kruisselbrink, Johannes W; Hart, Andy D M

    2015-05-01

    Risk assessments for human exposures to plant protection products (PPPs) have traditionally focussed on single routes of exposure and single compounds. Extensions to estimate aggregate (multi-source) and cumulative (multi-compound) exposure from PPPs present many new challenges and additional uncertainties that should be addressed as part of risk analysis and decision-making. A general approach is outlined for identifying and classifying the relevant uncertainties and variabilities. The implementation of uncertainty analysis within the MCRA software, developed as part of the EU-funded ACROPOLIS project to address some of these uncertainties, is demonstrated. An example is presented for dietary and non-dietary exposures to the triazole class of compounds. This demonstrates the chaining of models, linking variability and uncertainty generated from an external model for bystander exposure with variability and uncertainty in MCRA dietary exposure assessments. A new method is also presented for combining pesticide usage survey information with limited residue monitoring data, to address non-detect uncertainty. The results show that incorporating usage information reduces uncertainty in parameters of the residue distribution but that in this case quantifying uncertainty is not a priority, at least for UK grown crops. A general discussion of alternative approaches to treat uncertainty, either quantitatively or qualitatively, is included. PMID:25688423

  8. European approaches to work-related stress: a critical review on risk evaluation.

    PubMed

    Zoni, Silvia; Lucchini, Roberto G

    2012-03-01

    In recent years, various international organizations have raised awareness regarding psychosocial risks and work-related stress. European stakeholders have also taken action on these issues by producing important documents, such as position papers and government regulations, which are reviewed in this article. In particular, 4 European models that have been developed for the assessment and management of work-related stress are considered here. Although important advances have been made in the understanding of work-related stress, there are still gaps in the translation of this knowledge into effective practice at the enterprise level. There are additional problems regarding the methodology in the evaluation of work-related stress. The European models described in this article are based on holistic, global and participatory approaches, where the active role of and involvement of workers are always emphasized. The limitations of these models are in the lack of clarity on preventive intervention and, for two of them, the lack of instrument standardization for risk evaluation. The comparison among the European models to approach work-related stress, although with limitations and socio-cultural differences, offers the possibility for the development of a social dialogue that is important in defining the correct and practical methodology for work stress evaluation and prevention. PMID:22953229

  9. Quantitative risk-based approach for improving water quality management in mining.

    PubMed

    Liu, Wenying; Moran, Chris J; Vink, Sue

    2011-09-01

    The potential environmental threats posed by freshwater withdrawal and mine water discharge are some of the main drivers for the mining industry to improve water management. The use of multiple sources of water supply and introducing water reuse into the mine site water system have been part of the operating philosophies employed by the mining industry to realize these improvements. However, a barrier to implementation of such good water management practices is concomitant water quality variation and the resulting impacts on the efficiency of mineral separation processes, and an increased environmental consequence of noncompliant discharge events. There is an increasing appreciation that conservative water management practices, production efficiency, and environmental consequences are intimately linked through the site water system. It is therefore essential to consider water management decisions and their impacts as an integrated system as opposed to dealing with each impact separately. This paper proposes an approach that could assist mine sites to manage water quality issues in a systematic manner at the system level. This approach can quantitatively forecast the risk related with water quality and evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies in mitigating the risk by quantifying implications for production and hence economic viability. PMID:21797262

  10. A New Approach to Measuring Partnership Concurrency and its Association with HIV Risk in Couples

    PubMed Central

    Mkandawire, James; Kohler, Hans-Peter

    2015-01-01

    Empirical estimates of the association between concurrent partnerships (CP) and HIV risk are affected by non-sampling errors in survey data on CPs, e.g., because respondents misreport the extent of their CPs. We propose a new approach to measuring CPs in couples, which permits assessing how respondent errors affect estimates of the association between CPs and HIV risk. Each couple member is asked (1) to report whether s/he has engaged in CPs and (2) to assess whether his/her partner has engaged in CPs, since their couple started. Cross-tabulating these data yields multiple classifications (with varying combinations of sensitivity/specificity) of the CPs of each couple member. We then measure the association between CPs and HIV outcomes according to each classification. The resulting range of estimates is an indicator of the uncertainty associated with respondent errors. We tested this approach using data on 520 matched couples drawn from the Likoma Network Study. Results suggest that existing tests of the concurrency hypothesis are affected by significant uncertainty. PMID:24817498

  11. Examining Food Risk in the Large using a Complex, Networked System-of-sytems Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Ambrosiano, John; Newkirk, Ryan; Mc Donald, Mark P

    2010-12-03

    The food production infrastructure is a highly complex system of systems. Characterizing the risks of intentional contamination in multi-ingredient manufactured foods is extremely challenging because the risks depend on the vulnerabilities of food processing facilities and on the intricacies of the supply-distribution networks that link them. A pure engineering approach to modeling the system is impractical because of the overall system complexity and paucity of data. A methodology is needed to assess food contamination risk 'in the large', based on current, high-level information about manufacturing facilities, corrunodities and markets, that will indicate which food categories are most at risk of intentional contamination and warrant deeper analysis. The approach begins by decomposing the system for producing a multi-ingredient food into instances of two subsystem archetypes: (1) the relevant manufacturing and processing facilities, and (2) the networked corrunodity flows that link them to each other and consumers. Ingredient manufacturing subsystems are modeled as generic systems dynamics models with distributions of key parameters that span the configurations of real facilities. Networks representing the distribution systems are synthesized from general information about food corrunodities. This is done in a series of steps. First, probability networks representing the aggregated flows of food from manufacturers to wholesalers, retailers, other manufacturers, and direct consumers are inferred from high-level approximate information. This is followed by disaggregation of the general flows into flows connecting 'large' and 'small' categories of manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers, and consumers. Optimization methods are then used to determine the most likely network flows consistent with given data. Vulnerability can be assessed for a potential contamination point using a modified CARVER + Shock model. Once the facility and corrunodity flow models are

  12. Source Water Protection and Sustainability: a Practical Approach to Assessing Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nelson, D. O.; Chinitz, A. E.

    2009-12-01

    The recognition of climate change and the realization of the finite nature of sources of drinking water have spurred communities to develop resource sustainable practices. Sustainability requires overall management of the resource, and protecting existing and future water supplies from contamination plays a key role. Continued population growth will place increasing demands on water supplies and climate change will likely reduce groundwater recharge as well as increase the desire to replace dwindling surface water sources with groundwater. Aware of the need to protect its resource, the City of Springfield has delineated the source water protection areas (SWPAs) surrounding its wells and wellfields and has an ordinance in place that allows the City to establish specific guidelines associated with chemical usage. The City has established a range of best management strategies that vary in degree as a function of the time-of-travel zone and the presumed risk that a specific chemical poses to groundwater. When the guidelines were initially established, the City used more of a blanket approach to imposing specific practices on facilities within the SWPAs. The various approaches used were not site-specific and were based on limited information, reflecting limited resources, that were applied throughout the SWPAs as a function of proximity to the well(s). This practice led to the City’s receiving many questions from developers, etc., regarding “Why do you consider this product a risk?” The City needed an objective, consistent risk assessment tool that would reflect not only the specific chemical but also the geologic characteristics of the site where the chemical would be used. We used existing well reports to develop GIS coverages of both weighted hydraulic conductivity and depth to the aquifer that were then overlain on to the SWPA coverages. This exercise provided an assessment of the ease of water movement to the aquifer. Using that information, a spreadsheet was

  13. How to Quantify Sustainable Development: A Risk-Based Approach to Water Quality Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarang, Amin; Vahedi, Arman; Shamsai, Abolfazl

    2008-02-01

    Since the term was coined in the Brundtland report in 1987, the issue of sustainable development has been challenged in terms of quantification. Different policy options may lend themselves more or less to the underlying principles of sustainability, but no analytical tools are available for a more in-depth assessment of the degree of sustainability. Overall, there are two major schools of thought employing the sustainability concept in managerial decisions: those of measuring and those of monitoring. Measurement of relative sustainability is the key issue in bridging the gap between theory and practice of sustainability of water resources systems. The objective of this study is to develop a practical tool for quantifying and assessing the degree of relative sustainability of water quality systems based on risk-based indicators, including reliability, resilience, and vulnerability. Current work on the Karoun River, the largest river in Iran, has included the development of an integrated model consisting of two main parts: a water quality simulation subroutine to evaluate Dissolved Oxygen Biological Oxygen Demand (DO-BOD) response, and an estimation of risk-based indicators subroutine via the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). We also developed a simple waste load allocation model via Least Cost and Uniform Treatment approaches in order to consider the optimal point of pollutants control costs given a desired reliability value which addresses DO in two different targets. The Risk-based approach developed herein, particularly via the FORM technique, appears to be an appropriately efficient tool for estimating the relative sustainability. Moreover, our results in the Karoun system indicate that significant changes in sustainability values are possible through dedicating money for treatment and strict pollution controls while simultaneously requiring a technical advance along change in current attitudes for environment protection.

  14. Grouping and Read-Across Approaches for Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    PubMed Central

    Oomen, Agnes G.; Bleeker, Eric A. J.; Bos, Peter M. J.; van Broekhuizen, Fleur; Gottardo, Stefania; Groenewold, Monique; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Marcomini, Antonio; Peijnenburg, Willie J. G. M.; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J.; van Tongeren, Martie; Wiench, Karin; Wohlleben, Wendel; Landsiedel, Robert

    2015-01-01

    Physicochemical properties of chemicals affect their exposure, toxicokinetics/fate and hazard, and for nanomaterials, the variation of these properties results in a wide variety of materials with potentially different risks. To limit the amount of testing for risk assessment, the information gathering process for nanomaterials needs to be efficient. At the same time, sufficient information to assess the safety of human health and the environment should be available for each nanomaterial. Grouping and read-across approaches can be utilised to meet these goals. This article presents different possible applications of grouping and read-across for nanomaterials within the broader perspective of the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy (RAS), as developed in the EU FP7 project MARINA. Firstly, nanomaterials can be grouped based on limited variation in physicochemical properties to subsequently design an efficient testing strategy that covers the entire group. Secondly, knowledge about exposure, toxicokinetics/fate or hazard, for example via properties such as dissolution rate, aspect ratio, chemical (non-)activity, can be used to organise similar materials in generic groups to frame issues that need further attention, or potentially to read-across. Thirdly, when data related to specific endpoints is required, read-across can be considered, using data from a source material for the target nanomaterial. Read-across could be based on a scientifically sound justification that exposure, distribution to the target (fate/toxicokinetics) and hazard of the target material are similar to, or less than, the source material. These grouping and read-across approaches pave the way for better use of available information on nanomaterials and are flexible enough to allow future adaptations related to scientific developments. PMID:26516872

  15. Neighborhoods and Adolescent Health-Risk Behavior: An Ecological Network Approach1

    PubMed Central

    Browning, Christopher R.; Soller, Brian; Jackson, Aubrey L.

    2014-01-01

    This study integrates insights from social network analysis, activity space perspectives, and theories of urban and spatial processes to present an innovative approach to neighborhood effects on health-risk behavior among youth. We suggest spatial patterns of neighborhood residents’ non-home routine activities may be conceptualized as ecological, or “eco”-networks, which are two-mode networks that indirectly link residents through socio-spatial overlap in routine activities. We further argue structural configurations of eco-networks are consequential for youth’s behavioral health. In this study we focus on a key structural feature of eco-networks—the neighborhood-level extent to which households share two or more activity locations, or eco-network reinforcement—and its association with two dimensions of health-risk behavior, substance use and delinquency/sexual activity. Using geographic data on non-home routine activity locations among respondents from the Los Angeles Family and Neighborhood Survey (L.A.FANS), we constructed neighborhood-specific eco-networks by connecting sampled households to “activity clusters,” which are sets of spatially-proximate activity locations. We then measured eco-network reinforcement and examined its association with adolescent dimensions of health risk behavior employing a sample of 830 youth ages 12-17 nested in 65 census tracts. We also examined whether neighborhood-level social processes (collective efficacy and intergenerational closure) mediate the association between eco-network reinforcement and the outcomes considered. Results indicated eco-network reinforcement exhibits robust negative associations with both substance use and delinquency/sexual activity scales. Eco-network reinforcement effects were not explained by potential mediating variables. In addition to introducing a novel theoretical and empirical approach to neighborhood effects on youth, our findings highlight the importance of eco

  16. Grouping and Read-Across Approaches for Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Oomen, Agnes G; Bleeker, Eric A J; Bos, Peter M J; van Broekhuizen, Fleur; Gottardo, Stefania; Groenewold, Monique; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Marcomini, Antonio; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Wiench, Karin; Wohlleben, Wendel; Landsiedel, Robert

    2015-10-01

    Physicochemical properties of chemicals affect their exposure, toxicokinetics/fate and hazard, and for nanomaterials, the variation of these properties results in a wide variety of materials with potentially different risks. To limit the amount of testing for risk assessment, the information gathering process for nanomaterials needs to be efficient. At the same time, sufficient information to assess the safety of human health and the environment should be available for each nanomaterial. Grouping and read-across approaches can be utilised to meet these goals. This article presents different possible applications of grouping and read-across for nanomaterials within the broader perspective of the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy (RAS), as developed in the EU FP7 project MARINA. Firstly, nanomaterials can be grouped based on limited variation in physicochemical properties to subsequently design an efficient testing strategy that covers the entire group. Secondly, knowledge about exposure, toxicokinetics/fate or hazard, for example via properties such as dissolution rate, aspect ratio, chemical (non-)activity, can be used to organise similar materials in generic groups to frame issues that need further attention, or potentially to read-across. Thirdly, when data related to specific endpoints is required, read-across can be considered, using data from a source material for the target nanomaterial. Read-across could be based on a scientifically sound justification that exposure, distribution to the target (fate/toxicokinetics) and hazard of the target material are similar to, or less than, the source material. These grouping and read-across approaches pave the way for better use of available information on nanomaterials and are flexible enough to allow future adaptations related to scientific developments. PMID:26516872

  17. Collaborative multi-stakeholder approach to drafting flood risk management plans in Wallonia, Belgium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maroy, Edith; Javaux, Mathieu; Vandermosten, Pierre; Englebert, Benjamin

    2015-04-01

    The Flood Directive 2007/60/CE establishes a common framework within the European Union for assessing and reducing risks posed by floods on human health, the environment, economic activity and cultural heritage. For that purpose, Member States had to establish flood areas and flood risk maps, and subsequently, flood risk management plans (due December 2015). According to the Directive, special attention is to be paid to international coordination for transboundary water courses, integrated management approaches at the catchment scale, cost-effectiveness of measures and public involvement. Management measures must focus on reducing the probability of flooding and the potential consequences of flooding. They must cover prevention, protection and preparedness and must take into account relevant aspects, such as water management, soil management, spatial planning, land use and nature conservation. Floods in Wallonia mostly originate from overflowing of both little sloped rivers and highly reactive rivers but also, from concentrated runoff in the intensely cultivated and erosion-prone region north of the Sambre-Meuse axis. Consequently, walloon flood area maps not only show flood areas based on hydraulic modelling and observations but also runoff concentration axis in agricultural areas. Now released to the public, this information can be used to assess the risk of damage for land planning and erosion control strategies. Incidentally, some 166 km2 were mapped as flood hazard area with a return period of 25 years, 28.8 of which are urbanized or destined to urbanisation and counting of number of approximatively 39.000 people living in those areas. Flood area and flood risk maps should be the starting point of elaborating flood risk management plans. In order to involve the diversity of water managers and stakeholders in the drafting of a management plan for hydrographic districts in Wallonia, responsible authorities decided to mandate scientists and engineers to organize

  18. Modeling the Interplay of Multilevel Risk Factors for Future Academic and Behavior Problems: A Person-Centered Approach

    PubMed Central

    Lanza, Stephanie T.; Rhoades, Brittany L.; Nix, Robert L.; Greenberg, Mark T.

    2010-01-01

    This study identified profiles of 13 risk factors across child, family, school, and neighborhood domains in a diverse sample of children in kindergarten from 4 US locations (n = 750; 45% minority). It then examined the relation of those early risk profiles to externalizing problems, school failure, and low academic achievement in Grade 5. A person-centered approach, latent class analysis, revealed four unique risk profiles, which varied considerably across urban African American, urban white, and rural white children. Profiles characterized by several risks that cut across multiple domains conferred the highest risk for negative outcomes. Compared to a variable-centered approach, such as a cumulative risk index, these findings provide a more nuanced understanding of the early precursors to negative outcomes. For example, results suggested that urban children in single-parent homes that have few other risk factors (i.e., show at least average parenting warmth and consistency and report relatively low stress and high social support) are at quite low risk for externalizing problems, but at relatively high risk for poor grades and low academic achievement. These findings provide important information for refining and targeting preventive interventions to groups of children who share particular constellations of risk factors. PMID:20423544

  19. Modeling the interplay of multilevel risk factors for future academic and behavior problems: a person-centered approach.

    PubMed

    Lanza, Stephanie T; Rhoades, Brittany L; Nix, Robert L; Greenberg, Mark T

    2010-05-01

    This study identified profiles of 13 risk factors across child, family, school, and neighborhood domains in a diverse sample of children in kindergarten from four US locations (n = 750; 45% minority). It then examined the relation of those early risk profiles to externalizing problems, school failure, and low academic achievement in Grade 5. A person-centered approach, latent class analysis, revealed four unique risk profiles, which varied considerably across urban African American, urban White, and rural White children. Profiles characterized by several risks that cut across multiple domains conferred the highest risk for negative outcomes. Compared to a variable-centered approach, such as a cumulative risk index, these findings provide a more nuanced understanding of the early precursors to negative outcomes. For example, results suggested that urban children in single-parent homes that have few other risk factors (i.e., show at least average parenting warmth and consistency and report relatively low stress and high social support) are at quite low risk for externalizing problems, but at relatively high risk for poor grades and low academic achievement. These findings provide important information for refining and targeting preventive interventions to groups of children who share particular constellations of risk factors. PMID:20423544

  20. An approach to the implementation of European Directive 2007/60/EC on flood risk management in the Czech Republic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dráb, A.; Říha, J.

    2010-09-01

    Directive 2007/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2007 on the assessment and management of flood risks (the Flood Risk Directive) signifies that flood risk analysis methods are gaining ground in EC Member States and, therefore, also in the Czech Republic (CR). Procedures of flood risk analysis have been developed in the Czech Republic since the catastrophic floods of 1997 in line with European and worldwide trends and have been tested and applied in hundreds of case studies to date. Currently, the Flood Risk Directive Guideline based on past experience with flood risk analysis applications is being processed. The aim of the paper is to present flood risk analysis procedures and specially developed techniques for the assembly of flood hazard, danger and flood risk maps. Methods related to flood risk management plans are briefly mentioned as well. The following particular problems are discussed in more detail: an application and extension of the "danger matrix" approach, the definition of residual danger, the formulation of efficiency criteria and preliminary multi-criteria flood risk assessment. These issues were tested in practical applications at pilot locations in the Czech Republic. Present experience provides evidence that the flood risk analysis methods used in the Czech Republic are in harmony with the requirements of the Flood Risk Directive. The proposed and applied methods are based primarily on existing available data such as flood extent maps, cadastral maps, the Register of Census Districts and Structures and others.

  1. Assessment of Clinical Risk Management System in Hospitals: An Approach for Quality Improvement

    PubMed Central

    Farokhzadian, Jamileh; Nayeri, Nahid Dehghan; Borhani, Fariba

    2015-01-01

    Background: Clinical risks have created major problems in healthcare system such as serious adverse effects on patient safety and enhancing the financial burden for the healthcare. Thus, clinical risk management (CRM) system has been introduced for improving the quality and safety of services to health care. The aim of this study was to assess the status of CRM in the hospitals. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 200 nursing staff from three teaching hospitals affiliated with the Kerman University of Medical Sciences in southeast of Iran. Data were collected from the participants using questionnaire and observational checklist in quality improvement offices and selected wards. The data were analyzed using SPSS version 20. Results: Almost, 57% of persons participated in at least one of training sessions on CRM. The status of CRM system was rated from weak to moderate (2.93±0.72- 3.18±0.66). Among the six domains of CRM system, the highest mean belonged to domain the monitoring of analysis, evaluation and risk control (3.18±0.72); the lowest mean belonged to domain the staff’s knowledge, recognition and understanding of CRM (2.93±0.66). There were no integrated electronic systems for recording and analyzing clinical risks and incidents in the hospitals. Conclusion: Attempts have been made to establish CRM through improvement quality approach such as clinical governance and accreditation, but not enough, however, health care should move toward quality improvement and safe practice through the effective integration of CRM in organizational process. PMID:26156927

  2. Crash risk analysis for Shanghai urban expressways: A Bayesian semi-parametric modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Yu, Rongjie; Wang, Xuesong; Yang, Kui; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

    2016-10-01

    Urban expressway systems have been developed rapidly in recent years in China; it has become one key part of the city roadway networks as carrying large traffic volume and providing high traveling speed. Along with the increase of traffic volume, traffic safety has become a major issue for Chinese urban expressways due to the frequent crash occurrence and the non-recurrent congestions caused by them. For the purpose of unveiling crash occurrence mechanisms and further developing Active Traffic Management (ATM) control strategies to improve traffic safety, this study developed disaggregate crash risk analysis models with loop detector traffic data and historical crash data. Bayesian random effects logistic regression models were utilized as it can account for the unobserved heterogeneity among crashes. However, previous crash risk analysis studies formulated random effects distributions in a parametric approach, which assigned them to follow normal distributions. Due to the limited information known about random effects distributions, subjective parametric setting may be incorrect. In order to construct more flexible and robust random effects to capture the unobserved heterogeneity, Bayesian semi-parametric inference technique was introduced to crash risk analysis in this study. Models with both inference techniques were developed for total crashes; semi-parametric models were proved to provide substantial better model goodness-of-fit, while the two models shared consistent coefficient estimations. Later on, Bayesian semi-parametric random effects logistic regression models were developed for weekday peak hour crashes, weekday non-peak hour crashes, and weekend non-peak hour crashes to investigate different crash occurrence scenarios. Significant factors that affect crash risk have been revealed and crash mechanisms have been concluded. PMID:26847949

  3. Administrative risk quantification of subcutaneous and intravenous therapies in Italian centers utilizing the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis approach

    PubMed Central

    Ponzetti, Clemente; Canciani, Monica; Farina, Massimo; Era, Sara; Walzer, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    Background In oncology, an important parameter of safety is the potential treatment error in hospitals. The analyzed hypothesis is that of subcutaneous therapies would provide a superior safety benefit over intravenous therapies through fixed-dose administrations, when analyzed with trastuzumab and rituximab. Methods For the calculation of risk levels, the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis approach was applied. Within this approach, the critical treatment path is followed and risk classification for each individual step is estimated. For oncology and hematology administration, 35 different risk steps were assessed. The study was executed in 17 hematology and 16 breast cancer centers in Italy. As intravenous and subcutaneous were the only injection routes in medical available for trastuzumab and rituximab in oncology at the time of the study, these two therapies were chosen. Results When the risk classes were calculated, eight high-risk areas were identified for the administration of an intravenous therapy in hematology or oncology; 13 areas would be defined as having a median-risk classification and 14 areas as having a low-risk classification (total risk areas: n=35). When the new subcutaneous formulation would be applied, 23 different risk levels could be completely eliminated (65% reduction). Important high-risk classes such as dose calculation, preparation and package labeling, preparation of the access to the vein, pump infusion preparation, and infusion monitoring were included in the eliminations. The overall risk level for the intravenous administration was estimated to be 756 (ex-ante) and could be reduced by 70% (ex-post). The potential harm compensation for errors related to pharmacy would be decreased from eight risk classes to only three risk classes. Conclusion The subcutaneous administration of trastuzumab (breast cancer) and rituximab (hematology) might lower the risk of administration and treatment errors for patients and could hence indirectly have

  4. Added value of molecular assay Xpert MTB/RIF compared to sputum smear microscopy to assess the risk of tuberculosis transmission in a low-prevalence country.

    PubMed

    Opota, O; Senn, L; Prod'hom, G; Mazza-Stalder, J; Tissot, F; Greub, G; Jaton, K

    2016-07-01

    Airborne precautions are required at hospital admission for patients with suspected pulmonary tuberculosis. The isolation is maintained until 3 serially collected sputum smears are acid-fast bacilli negative, a time- and labor-intensive method with limited sensitivity and specificity, which has a great impact on patient flow management. We evaluated the possibility of replacing the result of microscopy by the semiquantitative result of the molecular point-of-care test Xpert MTB/RIF to assess patients' transmission risk to quickly guide airborne isolation decisions in low-endemic countries. The performance of the Xpert MTB/RIF, used as a first-line test, was compared to the results of microscopy for specimens (n=242) collected from May 2010 to December 2014 in Lausanne, Switzerland. The sensitivity and specificity of Xpert MTB/RIF were 91.5% (65/71) and 99.6% (170/171), respectively, vs. 64.8% (46/71) and 94.2% (161/171) for microscopy. Samples with negative Xpert MTB/RIF were all smear negative for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (negative predictive value, 100%). The semiquantitative results of Xpert MTB/RIF-high, medium, low or very low-were found to correlate with acid-fast bacilli detection: positive predictive value of 100% (6/6), 96.5% (27/28), 52.2% (12/23) and 11.1% (1/9) respectively. Finally, when including clinical criteria, we identified 11 smear-negative but Xpert MTB/RIF-positive patients with a significant transmission potential. In conclusion, our data support the introduction of an Xpert MTB/RIF-based strategy as a replacement of smear microscopy for a faster and more accurate management of tuberculosis patients' transmission risk in a low-prevalence country. PMID:27139592

  5. Twice weekly fluticasone propionate added to emollient maintenance treatment to reduce risk of relapse in atopic dermatitis: randomised, double blind, parallel group study

    PubMed Central

    Berth-Jones, John; Damstra, Robert J; Golsch, Stefan; Livden, John K; Van Hooteghem, Oliver; Allegra, Fulvio; Parker, Christine A

    2003-01-01

    Objective To explore the efficacy and safety of fluticasone propionate, cream and ointment, applied twice weekly in addition to maintenance treatment with emollients, in reducing the risk of relapse of chronic recurrent atopic dermatitis. Design Randomised, double blind, parallel group study of 20 weeks' duration. Setting Dermatology outpatient clinics (6 countries, 39 centres). Participants Adult (aged 12-65) patients with moderate to severe atopic dermatitis who were experiencing a flare. Methods Participants applied fluticasone propionate (0.05% cream or 0.005% ointment; once or twice daily) regularly for four weeks to stabilise their condition. The patients whose disease was brought under control then continued into a 16 week maintenance phase, applying emollient on a daily basis with a bath oil as needed and either the same formulation of fluticasone propionate or its placebo base (emollient alone) twice weekly to the areas that were usually affected. Main outcome measure Time to relapse of atopic dermatitis during maintenance phase. Results 376 patients entered the stabilisation phase, and 295 continued into the maintenance phase. After 16 weeks in the maintenance phase, the disease remained under control in 133 patients (87 using fluticasone propionate twice weekly, 46 using emollient alone), 135 (40 fluticasone propionate, 95 emollient) had experienced a relapse, and 27 had discontinued. Median time to relapse was six weeks for emollient alone compared with more than 16 weeks for additional fluticasone propionate. Patients who applied fluticasone propionate cream twice weekly were 5.8 times less likely (95% confidence interval 3.1 to 10.8, P < 0.001) and patients using fluticasone propionate ointment 1.9 times less likely (1.2 to 3.2, P=0.010) to have a relapse than patients applying emollient alone. The groups showed no differences in adverse events. Conclusion After atopic dermatitis had been stabilised the addition of fluticasone propionate twice weekly

  6. An Application of Bayesian Approach in Modeling Risk of Death in an Intensive Care Unit

    PubMed Central

    Wong, Rowena Syn Yin; Ismail, Noor Azina

    2016-01-01

    Background and Objectives There are not many studies that attempt to model intensive care unit (ICU) risk of death in developing countries, especially in South East Asia. The aim of this study was to propose and describe application of a Bayesian approach in modeling in-ICU deaths in a Malaysian ICU. Methods This was a prospective study in a mixed medical-surgery ICU in a multidisciplinary tertiary referral hospital in Malaysia. Data collection included variables that were defined in Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE IV) model. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation approach was applied in the development of four multivariate logistic regression predictive models for the ICU, where the main outcome measure was in-ICU mortality risk. The performance of the models were assessed through overall model fit, discrimination and calibration measures. Results from the Bayesian models were also compared against results obtained using frequentist maximum likelihood method. Results The study involved 1,286 consecutive ICU admissions between January 1, 2009 and June 30, 2010, of which 1,111 met the inclusion criteria. Patients who were admitted to the ICU were generally younger, predominantly male, with low co-morbidity load and mostly under mechanical ventilation. The overall in-ICU mortality rate was 18.5% and the overall mean Acute Physiology Score (APS) was 68.5. All four models exhibited good discrimination, with area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values approximately 0.8. Calibration was acceptable (Hosmer-Lemeshow p-values > 0.05) for all models, except for model M3. Model M1 was identified as the model with the best overall performance in this study. Conclusion Four prediction models were proposed, where the best model was chosen based on its overall performance in this study. This study has also demonstrated the promising potential of the Bayesian MCMC approach as an alternative in the analysis and modeling of

  7. Proactive Risk Assessment for Ebola-Infected Patients: A Systematic Approach to Identifying and Minimizing Risk to Healthcare Personnel.

    PubMed

    Fernandez, Rosemarie; Mitchell, Steven; Ehrmantraut, Ross; Meschke, John Scott; Simcox, Nancy J; Wolz, Sarah A; Parker, Sarah Henrickson

    2016-07-01

    Performing patient care while wearing high-level personal protective equipment presents risks to healthcare providers. Our failure mode effects analysis identified 81 overall risks associated with providing hygienic care and linen change to a patient with continuous watery stool. Implementation of checklists and scheduled pauses could potentially mitigate 76.5% of all risks. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2016;37:867-871. PMID:27226216

  8. A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

    2014-10-01

    Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in

  9. The possibilities of applying a risk-oriented approach to the NPP reliability and safety enhancement problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komarov, Yu. A.

    2014-10-01

    An analysis and some generalizations of approaches to risk assessments are presented. Interconnection between different interpretations of the "risk" notion is shown, and the possibility of applying the fuzzy set theory to risk assessments is demonstrated. A generalized formulation of the risk assessment notion is proposed in applying risk-oriented approaches to the problem of enhancing reliability and safety in nuclear power engineering. The solution of problems using the developed risk-oriented approaches aimed at achieving more reliable and safe operation of NPPs is described. The results of studies aimed at determining the need (advisability) to modernize/replace NPP elements and systems are presented together with the results obtained from elaborating the methodical principles of introducing the repair concept based on the equipment technical state. The possibility of reducing the scope of tests and altering the NPP systems maintenance strategy is substantiated using the risk-oriented approach. A probabilistic model for estimating the validity of boric acid concentration measurements is developed.

  10. Capturing changes in flood risk with Bayesian approaches for flood damage assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vogel, Kristin; Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Thieken, Annegret; Müller, Meike; Sieg, Tobias; Laudan, Jonas; Kienzler, Sarah; Weise, Laura; Merz, Bruno; Scherbaum, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk is a function of hazard as well as of exposure and vulnerability. All three components are under change over space and time and have to be considered for reliable damage estimations and risk analyses, since this is the basis for an efficient, adaptable risk management. Hitherto, models for estimating flood damage are comparatively simple and cannot sufficiently account for changing conditions. The Bayesian network approach allows for a multivariate modeling of complex systems without relying on expert knowledge about physical constraints. In a Bayesian network each model component is considered to be a random variable. The way of interactions between those variables can be learned from observations or be defined by expert knowledge. Even a combination of both is possible. Moreover, the probabilistic framework captures uncertainties related to the prediction and provides a probability distribution for the damage instead of a point estimate. The graphical representation of Bayesian networks helps to study the change of probabilities for changing circumstances and may thus simplify the communication between scientists and public authorities. In the framework of the DFG-Research Training Group "NatRiskChange" we aim to develop Bayesian networks for flood damage and vulnerability assessments of residential buildings and companies under changing conditions. A Bayesian network learned from data, collected over the last 15 years in flooded regions in the Elbe and Danube catchments (Germany), reveals the impact of many variables like building characteristics, precaution and warning situation on flood damage to residential buildings. While the handling of incomplete and hybrid (discrete mixed with continuous) data are the most challenging issues in the study on residential buildings, a similar study, that focuses on the vulnerability of small to medium sized companies, bears new challenges. Relying on a much smaller data set for the determination of the model

  11. Internal structure of charged AdS black holes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattacharjee, Srijit; Sarkar, Sudipta; Virmani, Amitabh

    2016-06-01

    When an electrically charged black hole is perturbed, its inner horizon becomes a singularity, often referred to as the Poisson-Israel mass inflation singularity. Ori constructed a model of this phenomenon for asymptotically flat black holes, in which the metric can be determined explicitly in the mass inflation region. In this paper we implement the Ori model for charged AdS black holes. We find that the mass function inflates faster than the flat space case as the inner horizon is approached. Nevertheless, the mass inflation singularity is still a weak singularity: Although spacetime curvature becomes infinite, tidal distortions remain finite on physical objects attempting to cross it.

  12. FDA Launches Ad Campaign Against Chewing Tobacco

    MedlinePlus

    ... 158385.html FDA Launches Ad Campaign Against Chewing Tobacco Health officials targeting rural teens with messages about health risks of smokeless tobacco products To use the sharing features on this ...

  13. An approach for the anticipatory and participatory management of current and future flood risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luther, J.

    2012-04-01

    Despite the fact that many measures to attenuate flood hazards and reduce vulnerabilities are being implemented, adverse effects of floods are ever-increasing in most parts of the world. On the one hand this holds true for economically and/or demographically growing regions. On the other hand this applies also to areas that face population shrinkage and economic problems. Such flood risks occur in human-environment systems and are subject to dynamics caused by a number of drivers such as climate change, land-use changes, and others. Many drivers evolve slowly over time or show time-lag effects and long return periods. Moreover, certain decisions may determine the control actions of the following decades. At present, current flood risks are mostly determined based on historic developments and the ex post analysis of flood events. Approaches that look at the future dynamics of both hazards and vulnerable elements ex ante in an integrated manner are rare. Instead, future hazard scenarios are often just overlaid with current socio-economic data, which poses a strong inconsistency. Usually the focus lies on rather short-term, specific or local problems. But many developments and measures show their effects only after long time periods and when considering the whole catchment area. This calls for a holistic and long-term view into the future and implies the challenge of dealing with many uncertainties due to the system's complexity. In order to anticipate and react to these developments, this contribution suggests developing a flexible, yet holistic approach to design, analyse and evaluate alternative futures of such human-environment systems. These futures follow a scenario understanding that considers both specific (current) factor constellations as well as consistent assumptions on autonomous developments (so-called development frameworks) and potentials for control (strategic alternatives) of the interacting entities that influence flood risk. Different scenario

  14. Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

    SciTech Connect

    Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J.

    2006-07-01

    The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

  15. An approach to assess ecological risk for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in surface water from Tianjin

    SciTech Connect

    Yu Yang; Xuan Shi; P.K. Wong; Richard Dawson; Fuliu Xu; Wenxin Liu; Shu Tao

    2006-08-15

    Three approaches were applied and compared to evaluate additive toxic effects of eight PAHs to aquatic organisms in rivers in the Tianjin area. Although the toxicity of the studied PAH compounds did not significantly increase the risk to aquatic organisms, the results of all three approaches indicated that the additive effect of the eight PAHs was significantly stronger than any individual compound acting alone, which indicated the applicability of the approaches. Further, of the compounds studied, anthracene was the major contributor to the overall toxic effect of the mixture. The calculated geometric means of the hazard quotient for the additive effect varied from 0.00055 to 0.00062, compared to the hazard quotient of individual PAHs which ranged from 5.1 10{sup -6} to 0.00053. The hazard quotient distribution geometric mean was 0.00058, with 95% of the quotient between 6.610{sup -5} and 0.051. Overlapping areas varied from 0.00015 to 0.02 for individual PAHs and was 0.03 for additive toxicity.

  16. [Comparative analysis of modern approaches to risk estimation from artificially created nanoparticles and nanomaterials].

    PubMed

    Kazak, A A; Stepanov, E G; Gmoshinskiĭ, I V; Khotimchenko, S A

    2012-01-01

    The article represents a review of modern approaches to problem of nanotechnologies and nanomaterials risk estimation for human health and environment that were elaborated in EU, USA and some international authorities. Submitted data suggests that there is a significant coincidence with approaches being developed and introduced in Russian Federation under the guidance of Rospotrebnadzor. Particularly criteria being used in Russian Federation and EU for classification of nanotechnologies and nanoindustry production are mainly similar. They include a) identification of nanomaterials in production, b) establishment of production disintegration possibility with concomitant migration of free nanoparticles, c) possibility of nanoparticles emission/migration both in normal conditions of utilization and in possible emergency conditions, d) degree of proximity of particular kind of production to it's consumer that means the possibility of exposition being from closely to zero (in conditions of unhabitated exploitation) up to approximately 100% (in case of medicine, food and cosmetics), e) biological examination of potential danger of nanomaterials according to current volume of scientific information. As applied to nanotechnology plants there are such criteria in use as a) nanomaterial identification, b) personnel exhibiting possibility, c) potential toxicity of stuff in aerosol nano-form, d) characteristics of biological action. Thus applied in Russia principles for nanomaterials safety estimation do not contradict to concepts of foreign authorities that builds up a possibility of said approaches harmonization to internationally recognized norms. PMID:23156045

  17. Development and application of the SSD approach in scientific case studies for ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Del Signore, Anastasia; Hendriks, A Jan; Lenders, H J Rob; Leuven, Rob S E W; Breure, A M

    2016-09-01

    Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) are used in ecological risk assessment for extrapolation of the results of toxicity tests with single species to a toxicity threshold considered protective of ecosystem structure and functioning. The attention to and importance of the SSD approach has increased in scientific and regulatory communities since the 1990s. Discussion and criticism have been triggered on the concept of the approach as well as its technical aspects (e.g., distribution type, number of toxicity endpoints). Various questions remain unanswered, especially with regard to different endpoints, statistical methods, and protectiveness of threshold levels, for example. In the present literature review (covering the period 2002-2013), case studies are explored in which the SSD approach was applied, as well as how endpoint types, species choice, and data availability affect SSDs. How statistical methods may be used to construct reliable SSDs and whether the lower 5th percentile hazard concentrations (HC5s) from a generic SSD can be protective for a specific local community are also investigated. It is shown that estimated protective concentrations were determined by taxonomic groups rather than the statistical method used to construct the distribution. Based on comparisons between semifield and laboratory-based SSDs, the output from a laboratory SSD was protective of semifield communities in the majority of studies. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:2149-2161. © 2016 SETAC. PMID:27144499

  18. AdS perturbations, isometries, selection rules and the Higgs oscillator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Evnin, Oleg; Nivesvivat, Rongvoram

    2016-01-01

    Dynamics of small-amplitude perturbations in the global anti-de Sitter (AdS) spacetime is restricted by selection rules that forbid effective energy transfer between certain sets of normal modes. The selection rules arise algebraically because some integrals of products of AdS mode functions vanish. Here, we reveal the relation of these selection rules to AdS isometries. The formulation we discover through this systematic approach is both simpler and stronger than what has been reported previously. In addition to the selection rule considerations, we develop a number of useful representations for the global AdS mode functions, with connections to algebraic structures of the Higgs oscillator, a superintegrable system describing a particle on a sphere in an inverse cosine-squared potential, where the AdS isometries play the role of a spectrum-generating algebra.

  19. Cyclist activity and injury risk analysis at signalized intersections: a Bayesian modelling approach.

    PubMed

    Strauss, Jillian; Miranda-Moreno, Luis F; Morency, Patrick

    2013-10-01

    This study proposes a two-equation Bayesian modelling approach to simultaneously study cyclist injury occurrence and bicycle activity at signalized intersections as joint outcomes. This approach deals with the potential presence of endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneities and is used to identify factors associated with both cyclist injuries and volumes. Its application to identify high-risk corridors is also illustrated. Montreal, Quebec, Canada is the application environment, using an extensive inventory of a large sample of signalized intersections containing disaggregate motor-vehicle traffic volumes and bicycle flows, geometric design, traffic control and built environment characteristics in the vicinity of the intersections. Cyclist injury data for the period of 2003-2008 is used in this study. Also, manual bicycle counts were standardized using temporal and weather adjustment factors to obtain average annual daily volumes. Results confirm and quantify the effects of both bicycle and motor-vehicle flows on cyclist injury occurrence. Accordingly, more cyclists at an intersection translate into more cyclist injuries but lower injury rates due to the non-linear association between bicycle volume and injury occurrence. Furthermore, the results emphasize the importance of turning motor-vehicle movements. The presence of bus stops and total crosswalk length increase cyclist injury occurrence whereas the presence of a raised median has the opposite effect. Bicycle activity through intersections was found to increase as employment, number of metro stations, land use mix, area of commercial land use type, length of bicycle facilities and the presence of schools within 50-800 m of the intersection increase. Intersections with three approaches are expected to have fewer cyclists than those with four. Using Bayesian analysis, expected injury frequency and injury rates were estimated for each intersection and used to rank corridors. Corridors with high bicycle volumes

  20. A pilot study to evaluate the efficacy of adding a structured home visiting intervention to improve outcomes for high-risk families attending the Incredible Years Parent Programme: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Antisocial behaviour and adult criminality often have their origins in childhood and are best addressed early in the child’s life using evidence-based treatments such as the ‘Incredible Years Parent Programme’. However, families with additional risk factors who are at highest risk for poor outcomes do not always make sufficient change while attending such programmes. Additional support to address barriers and improve implementation of positive parenting strategies while these families attend the Incredible Years Programme may improve overall outcomes. The study aims to evaluate the efficacy of adding a structured home visiting intervention (Home Parent Support) to improve outcomes in families most at risk of poor treatment response from the Incredible Years intervention. This study will inform the design of a larger prospective randomised controlled trial. Methods/design A pilot single-blind, parallel, superiority, randomised controlled trial. Randomisation will be undertaken using a computer-generated sequence in a 1:1 ratio to the two treatments arranged in permuted blocks with stratification by age, sex, and ethnicity. One hundred and twenty six participants enrolled in the Incredible Years Parent Programme who meet the high-risk criteria will be randomly allocated to receive either Incredible Years Parent Programme and Home Parent Support, or the Incredible Years Parent Programme alone. The Home Parent Support is a 10-session structured home visiting intervention provided by a trained therapist, alongside the usual Incredible Years Parent Programme, to enhance the adoption of key parenting skills. The primary outcome is the change in child behaviour from baseline to post-intervention in parent reported Eyberg Child Behavior Inventory Problem Scale. Discussion This is the first formal evaluation of adding Home Parent Support alongside Incredible Years Parent Programme for families with risk factors who typically have poorer treatment outcomes

  1. Methods Development for a Spatially Explicit Population-Level Risk Assessment, Uncertainty Analysis, and Comparison with Risk Quotient Approaches

    EPA Science Inventory

    The standard framework of Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) uses organism-level assessment endpoints to qualitatively determine the risk to populations. While organism-level toxicity data provide the pathway by which a species may be affected by a chemical stressor, they neither i...

  2. Community-Wide Health Risk Assessment Using Geographically Resolved Demographic Data: A Synthetic Population Approach

    PubMed Central

    Levy, Jonathan I.; Fabian, Maria Patricia; Peters, Junenette L.

    2014-01-01

    -resolved individual-level microdata that can be used in community-wide exposure and risk assessment studies. This approach provides insights regarding community-scale exposure and vulnerability patterns, valuable in settings where policy can be informed by characterization of multi-stressor exposures and health risks at high resolution. PMID:24489855

  3. The VORISA Project: An Integrated Approach to Assessing Volcanic Hazard and Risk in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lindsay, J. M.; Moufti, R.

    2013-12-01

    The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has numerous large monogenetic volcanic fields, known locally as 'Harrat'. The largest of these, Harrat Rahat, produced a basaltic fissure eruption in 1256 AD with lava flows travelling within 20 km of the Islamic holy city Al-Madinah. With over 900 visible basaltic and trachytic vents and periodic seismic swarms indicating stalled eruptions, an understanding of the risk of future eruptions in this volcanic field is vital. To systematically address this need we developed the Volcanic Risk in Saudi Arabia (VORISA) Project, a 3-year, multi-disciplinary international research collaboration that integrates geological, geophysical, hazard and risk studies. Detailed mapping and geochemical studies are being combined with new and existing age determinations to determine the style and sequence of events during past basaltic and trachytic eruptions. Data from gravity and magnetotelluric surveys are being integrated with microearthquake data from an 8-station borehole seismic research array to geophysically characterise the structure and nature of the crust, and thus constrain possible physical controls on magma propagation. All available data are being synthesised in hazard models to determine patterns in eruption frequency, magnitude, and style of past activity, as well as the probable location and style of a future event. Combined with geospatial vulnerability data, these hazard models, which include a reconstruction of the 1256 AD eruption, enable us to calculate and communicate volcanic risk to the city of Al-Madinah.

  4. Adding value to your work.

    PubMed

    Chambers, D W

    1998-01-01

    Dentists and many staff enjoy characteristics of work associated with high levels of satisfaction and performance. Although value can be added to oral health care professionals' jobs through enlargement, enrichment, rotations, and autonomous work groups, there are limits to these techniques. Controlling work performance by means of rewards is risky. Probably the most effective means of adding value to jobs is through the Quality of Work Life approach, concentrating on job design and placement to make work meaningful and autonomous and to provide feedback. PMID:9697373

  5. The need for comprehensive vulnerability approaches to mirror the multiplicity in mountain hazard risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keiler, Margreth; Fuchs, Sven

    2014-05-01

    The concept of vulnerability is pillared by multiple disciplinary theories underpinning either a technical or a social origin of the concept and resulting in a range of paradigms for vulnerability quantification. By taking a natural scientific approach we argue that a large number of studies have focused either on damage-loss functions for individual mountain hazards or on semi-quantitative indicator-based approaches for multiple hazards (hazard chains). However, efforts to reduce susceptibility to hazards and to create disaster-resilient communities require intersections among these approaches, as well as among theories originating in natural and social sciences, since human activity cannot be seen independently from the environmental setting. Acknowledging different roots of disciplinary paradigms in risk management, issues determining structural, economic, institutional and social vulnerability have to be more comprehensively addressed in the future with respect to mountain hazards in Europe and beyond. It is argued that structural vulnerability as originator results in considerable economic vulnerability, generated by the institutional settings of dealing with natural hazards and shaped by the overall societal framework. If vulnerability and its counterpart, resilience, is analysed and evaluated by using such a comprehensive approach, a better understanding of the vulnerability-influencing parameters could be achieved, taking into account the interdependencies and interactions between the disciplinary foci. As a result, three key issues should be addressed in future research: (1) Vulnerability requires a new perspective on the relationship between society and environment: not as a duality, but more as a mutually constitutive relationship (including methods for assessment). (2) There is a need for concepts of vulnerability that emphasise the dynamics of temporal and spatial scales, particularly with respect to Global Change processes in mountain regions. (3

  6. Preventive study in subjects at risk of fatal familial insomnia: Innovative approach to rare diseases.

    PubMed

    Forloni, Gianluigi; Tettamanti, Mauro; Lucca, Ugo; Albanese, Yasmin; Quaglio, Elena; Chiesa, Roberto; Erbetta, Alessandra; Villani, Flavio; Redaelli, Veronica; Tagliavini, Fabrizio; Artuso, Vladimiro; Roiter, Ignazio

    2015-01-01

    The text describes a preventive clinical trial with drug treatment in a very rare neurodegenerative disease (Fatal familial Insomnia, FFI) designed with the help of individuals at genetic risk of developing the disease, asymptomatic carriers, who have agreed to be exposed over a 10-year period to doxycycline, an antibiotic with anti-prion activity. At least 10 carriers of the FFI mutation over 42 y old will be treated with doxycycline (100 mg/die) and the incidence of the disease will be compared to that of an historical dataset. For ethical reasons a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial was not feasible, however the study design and the statistical analysis ensure the scientific value of the results. This approach might represent an important breakthrough in terms of potential therapy and knowledge of rare diseases that could give some hopes to these neglected patients. PMID:25996399

  7. Information security governance: a risk assessment approach to health information systems protection.

    PubMed

    Williams, Patricia A H

    2013-01-01

    It is no small task to manage the protection of healthcare data and healthcare information systems. In an environment that is demanding adaptation to change for all information collection, storage and retrieval systems, including those for of e-health and information systems, it is imperative that good information security governance is in place. This includes understanding and meeting legislative and regulatory requirements. This chapter provides three models to educate and guide organisations in this complex area, and to simplify the process of information security governance and ensure appropriate and effective measures are put in place. The approach is risk based, adapted and contextualized for healthcare. In addition, specific considerations of the impact of cloud services, secondary use of data, big data and mobile health are discussed. PMID:24018517

  8. A Bayesian approach to joint analysis of longitudinal measurements and competing risks failure time data.

    PubMed

    Hu, Wenhua; Li, Gang; Li, Ning

    2009-05-15

    In this paper, we develop a Bayesian method for joint analysis of longitudinal measurements and competing risks failure time data. The model allows one to analyze the longitudinal outcome with nonignorable missing data induced by multiple types of events, to analyze survival data with dependent censoring for the key event, and to draw inferences on multiple endpoints simultaneously. Compared with the likelihood approach, the Bayesian method has several advantages. It is computationally more tractable for high-dimensional random effects. It is also convenient to draw inference. Moreover, it provides a means to incorporate prior information that may help to improve estimation accuracy. An illustration is given using a clinical trial data of scleroderma lung disease. The performance of our method is evaluated by simulation studies. PMID:19308919

  9. Epidemiologic approaches to assessing human cancer risk from consuming aquatic food resources from chemically contaminated water.

    PubMed Central

    Ozonoff, D; Longnecker, M P

    1991-01-01

    Epidemiologic approaches to assessing human cancer risk from consuming fish from contaminated waters must confront the problems of long latency and rarity of the end point (cancer). The latency problem makes determination of diet history more difficult, while the low frequency of cancer as an end point reduces the statistical power of the study. These factors are discussed in relation to the study designs most commonly employed in epidemiology. It is suggested that the use of biomarkers for persistent chemicals may be useful to mitigate the difficulty of determining exposure, while the use of more prevalent and timely end points, such as carcinogen-DNA adducts or oncogene proteins, may make the latency and rarity problems more tractable. PMID:2050052

  10. Preventive study in subjects at risk of fatal familial insomnia: Innovative approach to rare diseases

    PubMed Central

    Forloni, Gianluigi; Tettamanti, Mauro; Lucca, Ugo; Albanese, Yasmin; Quaglio, Elena; Chiesa, Roberto; Erbetta, Alessandra; Villani, Flavio; Redaelli, Veronica; Tagliavini, Fabrizio; Artuso, Vladimiro; Roiter, Ignazio

    2015-01-01

    Abstract The text describes a preventive clinical trial with drug treatment in a very rare neurodegenerative disease (Fatal familial Insomnia, FFI) designed with the help of individuals at genetic risk of developing the disease, asymptomatic carriers, who have agreed to be exposed over a 10-year period to doxycycline, an antibiotic with anti-prion activity. At least 10 carriers of the FFI mutation over 42 y old will be treated with doxycycline (100 mg/die) and the incidence of the disease will be compared to that of an historical dataset. For ethical reasons a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial was not feasible, however the study design and the statistical analysis ensure the scientific value of the results. This approach might represent an important breakthrough in terms of potential therapy and knowledge of rare diseases that could give some hopes to these neglected patients. PMID:25996399

  11. Application impact analysis: a risk-based approach to business continuity and disaster recovery.

    PubMed

    Epstein, Beth; Khan, Dawn Christine

    2014-01-01

    There are many possible disruptions that can occur in business. Overlooking or under planning for Business Continuity requires time, understanding and careful planning. Business Continuity Management is far more than producing a document and declaring business continuity success. What is the recipe for businesses to achieve continuity management success? Application Impact Analysis is a method for understanding the unique Business Attributes. This AIA Cycle involves a risk based approach to understanding the business priority and considering business aspects such as Financial, Operational, Service Structure, Contractual Legal, and Brand. The output of this analysis provides a construct for viewing data, evaluating impact, and delivering results, for an approved valuation of Recovery Time Objectives (RTO). PMID:24578024

  12. Theory-based approaches to understanding public emergency preparedness: implications for effective health and risk communication.

    PubMed

    Paek, Hye-Jin; Hilyard, Karen; Freimuth, Vicki; Barge, J Kevin; Mindlin, Michele

    2010-06-01

    Recent natural and human-caused disasters have awakened public health officials to the importance of emergency preparedness. Guided by health behavior and media effects theories, the analysis of a statewide survey in Georgia reveals that self-efficacy, subjective norm, and emergency news exposure are positively associated with the respondents' possession of emergency items and their stages of emergency preparedness. Practical implications suggest less focus on demographics as the sole predictor of emergency preparedness and more comprehensive measures of preparedness, including both a person's cognitive stage of preparedness and checklists of emergency items on hand. We highlight the utility of theory-based approaches for understanding and predicting public emergency preparedness as a way to enable more effective health and risk communication. PMID:20574880

  13. The AdS particle [rapid communication

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, Subir

    2005-09-01

    In this Letter we have considered a relativistic Nambu-Goto model for a particle in AdS metric. With appropriate gauge choice to fix the reparameterization invariance, we recover the previously discussed [S. Ghosh, P. Pal, Phys. Lett. B 618 (2005) 243, arxiv:hep-th/0502192] "exotic oscillator". The Snyder algebra and subsequently the κ-Minkowski spacetime are also derived. Lastly we comment on the impossibility of constructing a non-commutative spacetime in the context of open string where only a curved target space is introduced.

  14. 'Weather Value at Risk': A uniform approach to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change.

    PubMed

    Prettenthaler, Franz; Köberl, Judith; Bird, David Neil

    2016-02-01

    We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures. PMID:25929802

  15. Quantitative approach of risk management strategies for hepatitis a virus-contaminated oyster production areas.

    PubMed

    Thebault, A; Le Saux, J-C; Pommepuy, M; Le Guyader, S; Lailler, R; Denis, J-B

    2012-07-01

    It is not yet known whether using the new molecular tools to monitor hepatitis A virus (HAV) in shellfish production areas could be useful for improving food safety. HAV contamination can be acute in coastal areas, such as Brittany, France, where outbreaks of hepatitis A have already occurred and have been linked to the consumption of raw shellfish. A quantitative probabilistic approach was carried out to estimate the mean annual risk of hepatitis A in an adult population of raw oyster consumers. Two hypothetical scenarios of contamination were considered, the first for a rare and brief event and the second for regular and prolonged episodes of contamination. Fourteen monitoring and management strategies were simulated. Their effects were assessed by the relative risk reduction in mean annual risk. The duration of closure after abnormal detection in the shellfish area was also considered. Among the strategies tested, results show that monthly molecular reverse transcription PCR monitoring of HAV is more useful than bacterial surveys. In terms of management measures, early closure of the shellfish area without waiting for confirmatory analysis was shown to be the most efficient strategy. When contamination is very short-lived and homogeneous in the shellfish production area, waiting for three negative results before reopening the area for harvest is time wasting. When contamination is not well identified or if contamination is heterogeneous, it can be harmful not to wait for three negative results. In addition, any preventive measures, such as improving sewage treatment or producing shellfish in safer areas, that can reduce contamination by at least 2 log units are more efficient and less costly. Finally we show that controlling and managing transferred shellfish are useful and can play an important role in preventing cases. Qualitative results from HAV monitoring can advantageously supplement other measures that improve the safety of shellfish products in exposed

  16. A Risk-Based Approach for Aerothermal/TPS Analysis and Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, Michael J.; Grinstead, Jay H.; Bose, Deepak

    2007-01-01

    The current status of aerothermal and thermal protection system modeling for civilian entry missions is reviewed. For most such missions, the accuracy of our simulations is limited not by the tools and processes currently employed, but rather by reducible deficiencies in the underlying physical models. Improving the accuracy of and reducing the uncertainties in these models will enable a greater understanding of the system level impacts of a particular thermal protection system and of the system operation and risk over the operational life of the system. A strategic plan will be laid out by which key modeling deficiencies can be identified via mission-specific gap analysis. Once these gaps have been identified, the driving component uncertainties are determined via sensitivity analyses. A Monte-Carlo based methodology is presented for physics-based probabilistic uncertainty analysis of aerothermodynamics and thermal protection system material response modeling. These data are then used to advocate for and plan focused testing aimed at reducing key uncertainties. The results of these tests are used to validate or modify existing physical models. Concurrently, a testing methodology is outlined for thermal protection materials. The proposed approach is based on using the results of uncertainty/sensitivity analyses discussed above to tailor ground testing so as to best identify and quantify system performance and risk drivers. A key component of this testing is understanding the relationship between the test and flight environments. No existing ground test facility can simultaneously replicate all aspects of the flight environment, and therefore good models for traceability to flight are critical to ensure a low risk, high reliability thermal protection system design. Finally, the role of flight testing in the overall thermal protection system development strategy is discussed.

  17. Cumulative health risk assessment: integrated approaches for multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects

    SciTech Connect

    Rice, Glenn; Teuschler, Linda; MacDonel, Margaret; Butler, Jim; Finster, Molly; Hertzberg, Rick; Harou, Lynne

    2007-07-01

    Available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: As information about environmental contamination has increased in recent years, so has public interest in the combined effects of multiple contaminants. This interest has been highlighted by recent tragedies such as the World Trade Center disaster and hurricane Katrina. In fact, assessing multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects has long been an issue for contaminated sites, including U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) legacy waste sites. Local citizens have explicitly asked the federal government to account for cumulative risks, with contaminants moving offsite via groundwater flow, surface runoff, and air dispersal being a common emphasis. Multiple exposures range from ingestion and inhalation to dermal absorption and external gamma irradiation. Three types of concerns can lead to cumulative assessments: (1) specific sources or releases - e.g., industrial facilities or accidental discharges; (2) contaminant levels - in environmental media or human tissues; and (3) elevated rates of disease - e.g., asthma or cancer. The specific initiator frames the assessment strategy, including a determination of appropriate models to be used. Approaches are being developed to better integrate a variety of data, extending from environmental to internal co-location of contaminants and combined effects, to support more practical assessments of cumulative health risks. (authors)

  18. Suicide risk management: development and analysis of a telephone-based approach to patient safety.

    PubMed

    Campbell, Duncan G; Bonner, Laura M; Bolkan, Cory R; Chaney, Edmund F; Felker, Bradford L; Sherman, Scott E; Rubenstein, Lisa V

    2011-09-01

    Research-based queries about patients' experiences often uncover suicidal thoughts. Human subjects review requires suicide risk management (SRM) protocols to protect patients, yet minimal information exists to guide researchers' protocol development and implementation efforts. The purpose of this study was to examine the development and implementation of an SRM protocol employed during telephone-based screening and data collection interviews of depressed primary care patients. We describe an SRM protocol development process and employ qualitative analysis of de-identified documentation to characterize protocol-driven interactions between research clinicians and patients. Protocol development required advance planning, training, and team building. Three percent of screened patients evidenced suicidal ideation; 12% of these met protocol standards for study clinician assessment/intervention. Risk reduction activities required teamwork and extensive collaboration. Research-based SRM protocols can facilitate patient safety by (1) identifying and verifying local clinical site approaches and resources and (2) integrating these features into prevention protocols and training for research teams. PMID:24073061

  19. Risk-based approach for systematic development of gastroretentive drug delivery system.

    PubMed

    Mirani, A G; Patankar, S P; Kadam, V J

    2016-10-01

    The research envisioned was the development of diltiazem hydrochloride effervescent floating matrix tablet using a risk-based approach. Preliminarily, the in vitro drug release profile was derived which theoretically simulated the in vivo condition after oral administration. Considering this as a rationale, the formulation development was initiated with defining the quality target product profile (QTPP) and critical quality attributes (CQAs). The preliminary studies were conducted to screen material attributes and process parameters followed by their risk assessment studies to select the plausible factors affecting the drug product CQAs, i.e., floating lag time and drug release profile. A 3(2) full factorial design was used to estimate the effect of the amount of swelling polymer (X 1) and gas-generating agent (X 2) on percent drug release (Q t1h and Q t8h) and floating lag time. Response and interaction plots were generated to examine the variables. Selection of an optimized formulation was done using desirability function and further validated. The model diagnostic plots represent the absence of outliers. The optimized formula obtained by the software was further validated, and the result of drug release and floating lag time was close to the predicted values. In a clear and concise way, the current investigations report the successful development of an effervescent floating matrix tablet for twice daily administration of diltiazem hydrochloride. PMID:27468861

  20. Toxicovigilance: A new approach for the hazard identification and risk assessment of toxicants in human beings

    SciTech Connect

    Descotes, Jacques . E-mail: jacques-georges.descotes@chu-lyon.fr; Testud, Francois

    2005-09-01

    The concept of toxicovigilance encompasses the active detection, validation and follow-up of clinical adverse events related to toxic exposures in human beings. Poison centers are key players in this function as poisoning statistics are essential to define the cause, incidence and severity of poisonings occurring in the general population. In addition, the systematic search for unexpected shifts in the recorded causes of poisonings, e.g., following the introduction of a new product, or change in the formulation or recommended use of an old product, allows for a rapid detection of potential adverse health consequences and the implementation of preventive or corrective measures. However, toxicovigilance is genuinely a medical and not only a statistical approach of human toxicity issues. In contrast to epidemiology, toxicovigilance is based on the in-depth medical assessment of acute or chronic intoxications on an individual basis, which requires detailed information that poison centers can rarely obtain via emergency telephone calls and that epidemiologists cannot collect or process. Validation of this medical information must primarily be based on toxicological expertise to help identify causal links between otherwise unexplained pathological conditions and documented toxic exposures. Thus, toxicovigilance can contribute to hazard identification and risk assessment by providing medically validated data which are often overlooked in the process of risk assessment. So far, very few structured toxicovigilance systems have been set up and hopefully national and international initiatives will bridge this gap in our knowledge of the toxicity of many chemicals and commercial products in human beings.

  1. Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I: a knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Sørensen, Peter B; Thomsen, Marianne; Assmuth, Timo; Grieger, Khara D; Baun, Anders

    2010-08-15

    This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again challenges risk assessors in terms of giving the 'right' relative priority to the multitude of contributing risk factors. A critical issue is therefore to develop procedures that can identify and evaluate worst case risk conditions which may be input to risk level predictions. Therefore, this paper suggests a conceptual modelling procedure that is able to define appropriate worst case conditions in complex risk management. The result of the analysis is an assembly of system models, denoted the Worst Case Definition (WCD) model, to set up and evaluate the conditions of multi-dimensional risk identification and risk quantification. The model can help optimize risk assessment planning by initial screening level analyses and guiding quantitative assessment in relation to knowledge needs for better decision support concerning environmental and human health protection or risk reduction. The WCD model facilitates the evaluation of fundamental uncertainty using knowledge mapping principles and techniques in a way that can improve a complete uncertainty analysis. Ultimately, the WCD is applicable for describing risk contributing factors in relation to many different types of risk management problems since it transparently and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk

  2. Development of Triad approach based system for ecological risk assessment for contaminated areas of Kyrgyzstan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kydralieva, Kamilia; Uzbekov, Beksultan; Khudaibergenova, Bermet; Terekhova, Vera; Jorobekova, Sharipa

    2014-05-01

    substances), 2) ecological parameters (assessing changes in microorganism's community structure and functions, bioindication); and 3) toxicological bioassays (utilizing classical endpoints such as survival and reproduction rates, genotoxicity). The output will be consisted of 3 indexes: 1) Environmental Risk Index, quantifying the level of biological damage at population-community level, 2) Biological Vulnerability Index, assessing the potential threats to biological equilibria, and 3) Genotoxicity Index, screening genotoxic effects. Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) will be used to integrate a set of environmental Triad data to be obtained during the project, which will be carried out in order to estimate the potential risk from soil contamination of the highly anthropized areas of Kadzhi-Say, which have been impacted by deposition of heavy metals. The basis of the development under this research is studies with a particular focus concerning the biocenosis mapping of Kyrgyz soils (Mamytova et al., 2003, 2010), investigations on interaction of humic substances with soil contaminants (Jorobekova, Kydralieva, Khudaibergenova, 2004; Khudaibergenova, 2005, 2007), and in addition, technical approach for ecotoxicological assessment of soils (Terekhova, 2007, 2011). Soil ecotoxicological estimation has been studied with a battery of tests using test-organisms of many trophic levels. Currently, bioindication of soils with various humus states is under study (Senesi, Yakimenko 2007; Yakimenko, et al., 2008).

  3. Using fuzzy multiple criteria decision-making approach for assessing the risk of railway reconstruction project in Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Lu, Shih-Tong; Yu, Shih-Heng; Chang, Dong-Shang

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates the risk factors in railway reconstruction project through complete literature reviews on construction project risks and scrutinizing experiences and challenges of railway reconstructions in Taiwan. Based on the identified risk factors, an assessing framework based on the fuzzy multicriteria decision-making (fuzzy MCDM) approach to help construction agencies build awareness of the critical risk factors on the execution of railway reconstruction project, measure the impact and occurrence likelihood for these risk factors. Subjectivity, uncertainty and vagueness within the assessment process are dealt with using linguistic variables parameterized by trapezoid fuzzy numbers. By multiplying the degree of impact and the occurrence likelihood of risk factors, estimated severity values of each identified risk factor are determined. Based on the assessment results, the construction agencies were informed of what risks should be noticed and what they should do to avoid the risks. That is, it enables construction agencies of railway reconstruction to plan the appropriate risk responses/strategies to increase the opportunity of project success and effectiveness. PMID:24772014

  4. Using Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Approach for Assessing the Risk of Railway Reconstruction Project in Taiwan

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Shih-Heng; Chang, Dong-Shang

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates the risk factors in railway reconstruction project through complete literature reviews on construction project risks and scrutinizing experiences and challenges of railway reconstructions in Taiwan. Based on the identified risk factors, an assessing framework based on the fuzzy multicriteria decision-making (fuzzy MCDM) approach to help construction agencies build awareness of the critical risk factors on the execution of railway reconstruction project, measure the impact and occurrence likelihood for these risk factors. Subjectivity, uncertainty and vagueness within the assessment process are dealt with using linguistic variables parameterized by trapezoid fuzzy numbers. By multiplying the degree of impact and the occurrence likelihood of risk factors, estimated severity values of each identified risk factor are determined. Based on the assessment results, the construction agencies were informed of what risks should be noticed and what they should do to avoid the risks. That is, it enables construction agencies of railway reconstruction to plan the appropriate risk responses/strategies to increase the opportunity of project success and effectiveness. PMID:24772014

  5. Ecological risks of an old wood impregnation mill: application of the Triad approach.

    PubMed

    Karjalainen, Anne-Mari; Kilpi-Koski, Johanna; Väisänen, Ari O; Penttinen, Sari; van Gestel, Cornelius A M; Penttinen, Olli-Pekka

    2009-07-01

    Although many studies deal with the distribution and mobility of chromated copper arsenate (CCA) metals in soil, the ecotoxicity of CCA-contaminated soils is rarely studied. The Triad approach was applied to determine the ecological risks posed by a CCA mixture at a decommissioned wood impregnation mill in southern Finland. A combination of (1) chemical analyses; (2) toxicity tests with plants (aquatic: Lemna minor; terrestrial: Lactuca sativa), earthworms (Lumbricus rubellus), and enchytraeids (Enchytraeus albidus) conducted on contaminated soils, their aqueous extracts, and well water collected from the site; and (3) determination of the abundance of enchytraeids and nematodes and the bioaccumulation of metals in plants (horsetail) collected from the field were used to assess the actual risk. Although metal concentrations were low, L. minor growth appeared to be reduced by As contamination of the well water. In soil, metals were heterogeneously distributed with total concentrations of 14.8 to 4360 mg As/kg, 15.2 to 1740 mg Cr/kg, and 4.83 to 790 mg Cu/kg. In several samples, concentrations were above Finnish regulatory guideline values and exceeded the half maximal effective concentration (EC50) or 50% lethal concentration (LC50) values for the toxicity of the individual metals to earthworms and enchytraeids, indicating hazards to the ecosystem. (Bio)availability of metals was high, as indicated by weak electrolyte extractions and body residues in L. rubellus and E. albidus exposed in bioassays. Earthworm survival correlated significantly with body metal concentrations, but not with soil total metal concentrations. Enchytraeid responses in the soil bioassays were less sensitive to CCA metal exposure. Plant growth was affected by CCA pollution, with L. sativa root elongation correlating significantly with total and available As concentrations and L. minor development being significantly reduced in H2O extracts of the most contaminated soil sample. Abundance of

  6. Improving risk assessment of violence among military Veterans: An evidence-based approach for clinical decision-making

    PubMed Central

    Elbogen, Eric B.; Fuller, Sara; Johnson, Sally C.; Brooks, Stephanie; Kinneer, Patricia; Calhoun, Patrick; Beckham, Jean C.

    2010-01-01

    Despite increased media attention on violent acts against others committed by military Veterans, few models have been developed to systematically guide violence risk assessment among Veterans. Ideally, a model would identify which Veterans are most at risk for violence and increased attention could then be turned to determining what could be done to prevent violent behavior. This article suggests how empirical approaches to risk assessment used successfully in civilian populations can be applied to Veterans. A review was conducted of the scientific literature on Veteran populations regarding factors related to interpersonal violence generally and to domestic violence specifically. A list was then generated of empirically-supported risk factors for clinicians to consider in practice. To conceptualize how these known risk factors relate to a Veteran’s violence potential, risk assessment scholarship was utilized to develop an evidence-based method to guide mental health professionals. The goals of this approach are to integrate science into practice, overcome logistical barriers, and permit more effective assessment, monitoring, and management of violence risk for clinicians working with Veterans, both in Veteran Administration settings and in the broader community. It is likely that the use of a systematic, empirical framework could lead to improved clinical decision-making in the area of risk assessment, and help reduce violence among Veterans. PMID:20627387

  7. Probing crunching AdS cosmologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, S. Prem; Vaganov, Vladislav

    2016-02-01

    Holographic gravity duals of deformations of CFTs formulated on de Sitter spacetime contain FRW geometries behind a horizon, with cosmological big crunch singularities. Using a specific analytically tractable solution within a particular single scalar truncation of {N}=8 supergravity on AdS4, we first probe such crunching cosmologies with spacelike radial geodesics that compute spatially antipodal correlators of large dimension boundary operators. At late times, the geodesics lie on the FRW slice of maximal expansion behind the horizon. The late time two-point functions factorise, and when transformed to the Einstein static universe, they exhibit a temporal non-analyticity determined by the maximal value of the scale factor ã max. Radial geodesics connecting antipodal points necessarily have de Sitter energy Ɛ ≲ ã max, while geodesics with Ɛ > ã max terminate at the crunch, the two categories of geodesics being separated by the maximal expansion slice. The spacelike crunch singularity is curved "outward" in the Penrose diagram for the deformed AdS backgrounds, and thus geodesic limits of the antipodal correlators do not directly probe the crunch. Beyond the geodesic limit, we point out that the scalar wave equation, analytically continued into the FRW patch, has a potential which is singular at the crunch along with complex WKB turning points in the vicinity of the FRW crunch. We then argue that the frequency space Green's function has a branch point determined by ã max which corresponds to the lowest quasinormal frequency.

  8. What's the Risk? A Simple Approach for Estimating Adjusted Risk Measures from Nonlinear Models Including Logistic Regression

    PubMed Central

    Kleinman, Lawrence C; Norton, Edward C

    2009-01-01

    Objective To develop and validate a general method (called regression risk analysis) to estimate adjusted risk measures from logistic and other nonlinear multiple regression models. We show how to estimate standard errors for these estimates. These measures could supplant various approximations (e.g., adjusted odds ratio [AOR]) that may diverge, especially when outcomes are common. Study Design Regression risk analysis estimates were compared with internal standards as well as with Mantel–Haenszel estimates, Poisson and log-binomial regressions, and a widely used (but flawed) equation to calculate adjusted risk ratios (ARR) from AOR. Data Collection Data sets produced using Monte Carlo simulations. Principal Findings Regression risk analysis accurately estimates ARR and differences directly from multiple regression models, even when confounders are continuous, distributions are skewed, outcomes are common, and effect size is large. It is statistically sound and intuitive, and has properties favoring it over other methods in many cases. Conclusions Regression risk analysis should be the new standard for presenting findings from multiple regression analysis of dichotomous outcomes for cross-sectional, cohort, and population-based case–control studies, particularly when outcomes are common or effect size is large. PMID:18793213

  9. Integrated approach for managing health risks at work--the role of occupational health nurses.

    PubMed

    Marinescu, Luiza G

    2007-02-01

    Currently, many organizations are using a department-centered approach to manage health risks at work. In such a model, segregated departments are providing employee benefits such as health insurance, workers' compensation, and short- and long-term disability or benefits addressing work-life issues. In recent years, a new model has emerged: health and productivity management (HPM). This is an employee-centered, integrated approach, designed to increase efficiency, reduce competition for scarce resources, and increase employee participation in prevention activities. Evidence suggests that corporations using integrated HPM programs achieve better health outcomes for their employees, with consequent increased productivity and decreased absenteeism. Occupational health nurses are well positioned to assume leadership roles in their organizations by coordinating efforts and programs across departments that offer health, wellness, and safety benefits. To assume their role as change agents to improve employees' health, nurses should start using the language of business more often by improving their communication skills, computer skills, and ability to quantify and articulate results of programs and services to senior management. PMID:17323873

  10. Drought Risk Modeling for Thermoelectric Power Plants Siting using an Excess Over Threshold Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Bekera, Behailu B; Francis, Royce A; Omitaomu, Olufemi A

    2014-01-01

    Water availability is among the most important elements of thermoelectric power plant site selection and evaluation criteria. With increased variability and changes in hydrologic statistical stationarity, one concern is the increased occurrence of extreme drought events that may be attributable to climatic changes. As hydrological systems are altered, operators of thermoelectric power plants need to ensure a reliable supply of water for cooling and generation requirements. The effects of climate change are expected to influence hydrological systems at multiple scales, possibly leading to reduced efficiency of thermoelectric power plants. In this paper, we model drought characteristics from a thermoelectric systems operational and regulation perspective. A systematic approach to characterise a stream environment in relation to extreme drought occurrence, duration and deficit-volume is proposed and demonstrated. This approach can potentially enhance early stage decisions in identifying candidate sites for a thermoelectric power plant application and allow investigation and assessment of varying degrees of drought risk during more advanced stages of the siting process.

  11. Consumer's risk in the EMA and FDA regulatory approaches for bioequivalence in highly variable drugs.

    PubMed

    Muñoz, Joel; Alcaide, Daniel; Ocaña, Jordi

    2016-05-30

    The 2010 US Food and Drug Administration and European Medicines Agency regulatory approaches to establish bioequivalence in highly variable drugs are both based on linearly scaling the bioequivalence limits, both take a 'scaled average bioequivalence' approach. The present paper corroborates previous work suggesting that none of them adequately controls type I error or consumer's risk, so they result in invalid test procedures in the neighbourhood of a within-subject coefficient of variation osf 30% for the reference (R) formulation. The problem is particularly serious in the US Food and Drug Administration regulation, but it is also appreciable in the European Medicines Agency one. For the partially replicated TRR/RTR/RRT and the replicated TRTR/RTRT crossover designs, we quantify these type I error problems by means of a simulation study, discuss their possible causes and propose straightforward improvements on both regulatory procedures that improve their type I error control while maintaining an adequate power. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26707698

  12. Wildfire Risk Mapping over the State of Mississippi: Land Surface Modeling Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Cooke, William H.; Mostovoy, Georgy; Anantharaj, Valentine G; Jolly, W. Matt

    2012-01-01

    Three fire risk indexes based on soil moisture estimates were applied to simulate wildfire probability over the southern part of Mississippi using the logistic regression approach. The fire indexes were retrieved from: (1) accumulated difference between daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (P-E); (2) top 10 cm soil moisture content simulated by the Mosaic land surface model; and (3) the Keetch-Byram drought index (KBDI). The P-E, KBDI, and soil moisture based indexes were estimated from gridded atmospheric and Mosaic-simulated soil moisture data available from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2). Normalized deviations of these indexes from the 31-year mean (1980-2010) were fitted into the logistic regression model describing probability of wildfires occurrence as a function of the fire index. It was assumed that such normalization provides more robust and adequate description of temporal dynamics of soil moisture anomalies than the original (not normalized) set of indexes. The logistic model parameters were evaluated for 0.25 x0.25 latitude/longitude cells and for probability representing at least one fire event occurred during 5 consecutive days. A 23-year (1986-2008) forest fires record was used. Two periods were selected and examined (January mid June and mid September December). The application of the logistic model provides an overall good agreement between empirical/observed and model-fitted fire probabilities over the study area during both seasons. The fire risk indexes based on the top 10 cm soil moisture and KBDI have the largest impact on the wildfire odds (increasing it by almost 2 times in response to each unit change of the corresponding fire risk index during January mid June period and by nearly 1.5 times during mid September-December) observed over 0.25 x0.25 cells located along the state of Mississippi Coast line. This result suggests a rather strong control of fire risk indexes on fire occurrence probability

  13. Revealing ecological risks of priority endocrine disrupting chemicals in four marine protected areas in Hong Kong through an integrative approach.

    PubMed

    Xu, Elvis Genbo; Ho, Philip Wing-Lok; Tse, Zero; Ho, Shu-Leong; Leung, Kenneth Mei Yee

    2016-08-01

    Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) in Hong Kong are situated in close proximity to urbanized areas, and inevitably influenced by wastewater discharges and antifouling biocides leached from vessels. Hence, marine organisms inhabiting these MPAs are probably at risk. Here an integrative approach was employed to comprehensively assess ecological risks of eight priority endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in four MPAs of Hong Kong. We quantified their concentrations in environmental and biota samples collected in different seasons during 2013-2014, while mussels (Septifer virgatus) and semi-permeable membrane devices were deployed to determine the extent of accumulation of the EDCs. Extracts from the environmental samples were subjected to the yeast estrogen screen and a novel human cell-based catechol-O-methyltransferase ELISA to evaluate their estrogenic activities. The results indicated ecological risks of EDCs in the Cape d'Aguilar Marine Reserve. This integrated approach can effectively evaluate ecological risks of EDCs through linking their concentrations to biological effects. PMID:27179329

  14. New Features in ADS Labs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Accomazzi, Alberto; Kurtz, M. J.; Henneken, E. A.; Grant, C. S.; Thompson, D.; Di Milia, G.; Luker, J.; Murray, S. S.

    2013-01-01

    The NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS) has been working hard on updating its services and interfaces to better support our community's research needs. ADS Labs is a new interface built on the old tried-and-true ADS Abstract Databases, so all of ADS's content is available through it. In this presentation we highlight the new features that have been developed in ADS Labs over the last year: new recommendations, metrics, a citation tool and enhanced fulltext search. ADS Labs has long been providing article-level recommendations based on keyword similarity, co-readership and co-citation analysis of its corpus. We have now introduced personal recommendations, which provide a list of articles to be considered based on a individual user's readership history. A new metrics interface provides a summary of the basic impact indicators for a list of records. These include the total and normalized number of papers, citations, reads, and downloads. Also included are some of the popular indices such as the h, g and i10 index. The citation helper tool allows one to submit a set of records and obtain a list of top 10 papers which cite and/or are cited by papers in the original list (but which are not in it). The process closely resembles the network approach of establishing "friends of friends" via an analysis of the citation network. The full-text search service now covers more than 2.5 million documents, including all the major astronomy journals, as well as physics journals published by Springer, Elsevier, the American Physical Society, the American Geophysical Union, and all of the arXiv eprints. The full-text search interface interface allows users and librarians to dig deep and find words or phrases in the body of the indexed articles. ADS Labs is available at http://adslabs.org

  15. Per aspirin ad astra...

    PubMed

    Hartung, Thomas

    2009-12-01

    Taking the 110th anniversary of marketing of aspirin as starting point, the almost scary toxicological profile of aspirin is contrasted with its actual use experience. The author concludes that we are lucky that, in 1899, there was no regulatory toxicology. Adding, for the purpose of this article, a fourth R to the Three Rs, i.e. Realism, three reality-checks are carried out. The first one comes to the conclusion that the tools of toxicology are hardly adequate for the challenges ahead. The second one concludes that, specifically, the implementation of the EU REACH system is not feasible with these tools, mainly with regard to throughput. The third one challenges the belief that classical alternative methods, i.e. replacing animal test-based tools one by one, is actually leading to a new toxicology - it appears to change only patches of the patchwork, but not to overcome any inherent limitations other than ethical ones. The perspective lies in the Toxicology for the 21st Century initiatives, which aim to create a new approach from the scratch, by an evidence-based toxicology and a global "Human Toxicology Programme". PMID:20105011

  16. An optimization-based approach for facility energy management with uncertainties, and, Power portfolio optimization in deregulated electricity markets with risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Jun

    load, maximize its profit, and manage risks. In this topic, a mid-term power portfolio optimization problem with risk management is presented. Key instruments are considered, risk terms based on semi-variances of spot market transactions are introduced, and penalties on load obligation violations are added to the objective function to improve algorithm convergence and constraint satisfaction. To overcome the inseparability of the resulting problem, a surrogate optimization framework is developed enabling a decomposition and coordination approach. Numerical testing results show that our method effectively provides decisions for various instruments to maximize profit, manage risks, and is computationally efficient.

  17. A quantitative benefit-risk assessment approach to improve decision making in drug development: Application of a multicriteria decision analysis model in the development of combination therapy for overactive bladder.

    PubMed

    de Greef-van der Sandt, I; Newgreen, D; Schaddelee, M; Dorrepaal, C; Martina, R; Ridder, A; van Maanen, R

    2016-04-01

    A multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach was developed and used to estimate the benefit-risk of solifenacin and mirabegron and their combination in the treatment of overactive bladder (OAB). The objectives were 1) to develop an MCDA tool to compare drug effects in OAB quantitatively, 2) to establish transparency in the evaluation of the benefit-risk profile of various dose combinations, and 3) to quantify the added value of combination use compared to monotherapies. The MCDA model was developed using efficacy, safety, and tolerability attributes and the results of a phase II factorial design combination study were evaluated. Combinations of solifenacin 5 mg and mirabegron 25 mg and mirabegron 50 (5+25 and 5+50) scored the highest clinical utility and supported combination therapy development of solifenacin and mirabegron for phase III clinical development at these dose regimens. This case study underlines the benefit of using a quantitative approach in clinical drug development programs. PMID:26422298

  18. A novel bottom-up approach to bounding low-dose human cancer risks from chemical exposures.

    PubMed

    Starr, Thomas B; Swenberg, James A

    2013-04-01

    We propose a novel bottom-up approach to the bounding of low-dose human cancer risks from chemical exposures that does not rely at all upon high-dose data for human or animal cancers. This approach can thus be used to provide an independent "reality check" on low-dose risk estimates derived with dose-response models that are fit to high-dose cancer data. The approach (1) is consistent with the "additivity to background" concept, (2) yields central and upper-bound risk estimates that are linear at all doses, and (3) requires only information regarding background risk, background (endogenous) exposure, and the additional exogenous exposure of interest in order to be implemented. After describing the details of this bottom-up approach, we illustrate its application using formaldehyde as an example. Results indicate that recent top-down risk extrapolations from occupational cohort mortality data for workers exposed to formaldehyde are overly conservative by substantial margins. PMID:23352840

  19. Cumulative Risk Assessment: An Overview of Methodological Approaches for Evaluating Combined Health Effects from Exposure to Multiple Environmental Stressors

    PubMed Central

    Sexton, Ken

    2012-01-01

    Systematic evaluation of cumulative health risks from the combined effects of multiple environmental stressors is becoming a vital component of risk-based decisions aimed at protecting human populations and communities. This article briefly examines the historical development of cumulative risk assessment as an analytical tool, and discusses current approaches for evaluating cumulative health effects from exposure to both chemical mixtures and combinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. A comparison of stressor-based and effects-based assessment methods is presented, and the potential value of focusing on viable risk management options to limit the scope of cumulative evaluations is discussed. The ultimate goal of cumulative risk assessment is to provide answers to decision-relevant questions based on organized scientific analysis; even if the answers, at least for the time being, are inexact and uncertain. PMID:22470298

  20. AdS3: the NHEK generation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bena, Iosif; Heurtier, Lucien; Puhm, Andrea

    2016-05-01

    It was argued in [1] that the five-dimensional near-horizon extremal Kerr (NHEK) geometry can be embedded in String Theory as the infrared region of an infinite family of non-supersymmetric geometries that have D1, D5, momentum and KK monopole charges. We show that there exists a method to embed these geometries into asymptotically- {AdS}_3× {S}^3/{{Z}}_N solutions, and hence to obtain infinite families of flows whose infrared is NHEK. This indicates that the CFT dual to the NHEK geometry is the IR fixed point of a Renormalization Group flow from a known local UV CFT and opens the door to its explicit construction.

  1. Shadows, currents, and AdS fields

    SciTech Connect

    Metsaev, R. R.

    2008-11-15

    Conformal totally symmetric arbitrary spin currents and shadow fields in flat space-time of dimension greater than or equal to four are studied. A gauge invariant formulation for such currents and shadow fields is developed. Gauge symmetries are realized by involving the Stueckelberg fields. A realization of global conformal boost symmetries is obtained. Gauge invariant differential constraints for currents and shadow fields are obtained. AdS/CFT correspondence for currents and shadow fields and the respective normalizable and non-normalizable solutions of massless totally symmetric arbitrary spin AdS fields are studied. The bulk fields are considered in a modified de Donder gauge that leads to decoupled equations of motion. We demonstrate that leftover on shell gauge symmetries of bulk fields correspond to gauge symmetries of boundary currents and shadow fields, while the modified de Donder gauge conditions for bulk fields correspond to differential constraints for boundary conformal currents and shadow fields. Breaking conformal symmetries, we find interrelations between the gauge invariant formulation of the currents and shadow fields, and the gauge invariant formulation of massive fields.

  2. A "one size fits all" approach to language fMRI: increasing specificity and applicability by adding a self-paced component.

    PubMed

    Máté, Adrienn; Lidzba, Karen; Hauser, Till-Karsten; Staudt, Martin; Wilke, Marko

    2016-03-01

    We have previously established an fMRI task battery suitable for mapping the language processing network in children. Among the tasks used, the synonyms and the vowel identification task induced robust task-related activations in children with average language abilities; however, the fixed presentation time seems to be a drawback in participants with above- or below-average language abilities. This feasibility study in healthy adults (n = 20) was aimed at adapting these tasks to the individual level of each patient by implementing a self-paced stimulus presentation. The impact of using a block- versus an event-related statistical approach was also evaluated. The self-paced modification allowed our participants with above-average language abilities to process stimuli much faster than originally implemented, likely increasing task adherence. A higher specificity of the event-related analysis was confirmed by stronger left inferior frontal and crossed cerebellar activations. We suggest that self-paced paradigms and event-related analyses may both increase specificity and applicability. PMID:26514810

  3. Laboratory approaches for predicting and managing the risk of cardiovascular disease: postanalytical opportunities of lipid and lipoprotein testing.

    PubMed

    Langlois, Michel R

    2012-07-01

    Abstract Lipoprotein-related risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) can be adequately predicted in subjects with elevated total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein (LDL-)cholesterol using the available guidelines. However, individuals with dyslipidemia can have normal total- and LDL-cholesterol concentrations. Many statin-treated patients remain at high residual risk of CVD despite achieving LDL goals. The small dense LDL phenotype, frequently presenting with hypertriglyceridemia and low high-density lipoprotein (HDL-)cholesterol (lipid triad), may contribute to failure to identify and treat high-risk individuals. Therefore, calculated non-HDL-cholesterol is recommended as secondary therapeutic target to LDL-cholesterol in patients with hypertriglyceridemia and mixed dyslipidemia. On-treatment apolipoprotein B adds prognostic information to LDL- and non-HDL-cholesterol by indicating the total number of atherogenic lipoproteins, regardless of their cholesterol content. Risk may be higher than indicated in the risk estimation systems in additional subjects with elevated lipoprotein(a) and homocysteine concentrations. To improve the (post-)post-analytical phase of lipid tests, aiming for maximal health outcome effectiveness of test interpretation and utilization, laboratory professionals should deliver clinical added value services by providing readily interpreted and guideline-adjusted test reports, interpretative commenting, proactive reflex testing or recommending additional tests, and joining multidisciplinary cooperations in guideline development and cost/benefit studies. PMID:22850050

  4. Fire risk in San Diego County, California: A weighted Bayesian model approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kolden, Crystal A.; Weigel, Timothy J.

    2007-01-01

    Fire risk models are widely utilized to mitigate wildfire hazards, but models are often based on expert opinions of less understood fire-ignition and spread processes. In this study, we used an empirically derived weights-of-evidence model to assess what factors produce fire ignitions east of San Diego, California. We created and validated a dynamic model of fire-ignition risk based on land characteristics and existing fire-ignition history data, and predicted ignition risk for a future urbanization scenario. We then combined our empirical ignition-risk model with a fuzzy fire behavior-risk model developed by wildfire experts to create a hybrid model of overall fire risk. We found that roads influence fire ignitions and that future growth will increase risk in new rural development areas. We conclude that empirically derived risk models and hybrid models offer an alternative method to assess current and future fire risk based on management actions.

  5. Ecological status classification of the Taizi River Basin, China: a comparison of integrated risk assessment approaches.

    PubMed

    Fan, Juntao; Semenzin, Elena; Meng, Wei; Giubilato, Elisa; Zhang, Yuan; Critto, Andrea; Zabeo, Alex; Zhou, Yun; Ding, Sen; Wan, Jun; He, Mengchang; Lin, Chunye

    2015-10-01

    Integrated risk assessment approaches allow to achieve a sound evaluation of ecological status of river basins and to gain knowledge about the likely causes of impairment, useful for informing and supporting the decision-making process. In this paper, the integrated risk assessment (IRA) methodology developed in the EU MODELKEY project (and implemented in the MODELKEY Decision Support System) is applied to the Taizi River (China), in order to assess its Ecological and Chemical Status according to EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) requirements. The available dataset is derived by an extensive survey carried out in 2009 and 2010 across the Taizi River catchment, including the monitoring of physico-chemical (i.e. DO, EC, NH3-_N, chemical oxygen demand (COD), biological oxygen demand in 5 days (BOD5) and TP), chemical (i.e. polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and metals), biological (i.e. macroinvertebrates, fish, and algae), and hydromorphological parameters (i.e. water quantity, channel change and morphology diversity). The results show a negative trend in the ecological status from the highland to the lowland of the Taizi River Basin. Organic pollution from agriculture and domestic sources (i.e. COD and BOD5), unstable hydrological regime (i.e. water quantity shortage) and chemical pollutants from industry (i.e. PAHs and metals) are found to be the main stressors impacting the ecological status of the Taizi River Basin. The comparison between the results of the IRA methodology and those of a previous study (Leigh et al. 2012) indicates that the selection of indicators and integrating methodologies can have a relevant impact on the classification of the ecological status. The IRA methodology, which integrates information from five lines of evidence (i.e., biology, physico-chemistry, chemistry, ecotoxicology and hydromorphology) required by WFD, allows to better identify the biological communities that are potentially at risk and the stressors that are most

  6. Insightful monitoring of natural flood risk management features using a low-cost and participatory approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Starkey, Eleanor; Barnes, Mhari; Quinn, Paul; Large, Andy

    2016-04-01

    Pressures associated with flooding and climate change have significantly increased over recent years. Natural Flood Risk Management (NFRM) is now seen as being a more appropriate and favourable approach in some locations. At the same time, catchment managers are also encouraged to adopt a more integrated, evidence-based and bottom-up approach. This includes engaging with local communities. Although NFRM features are being more readily installed, there is still limited evidence associated with their ability to reduce flood risk and offer multiple benefits. In particular, local communities and land owners are still uncertain about what the features entail and how they will perform, which is a huge barrier affecting widespread uptake. Traditional hydrometric monitoring techniques are well established but they still struggle to successfully monitor and capture NFRM performance spatially and temporally in a visual and more meaningful way for those directly affected on the ground. Two UK-based case studies are presented here where unique NFRM features have been carefully designed and installed in rural headwater catchments. This includes a 1km2 sub-catchment of the Haltwhistle Burn (northern England) and a 2km2 sub-catchment of Eddleston Water (southern Scotland). Both of these pilot sites are subject to prolonged flooding in winter and flash flooding in summer. This exacerbates sediment, debris and water quality issues downstream. Examples of NFRM features include ponds, woody debris and a log feature inspired by the children's game 'Kerplunk'. They have been tested and monitored over the 2015-2016 winter storms using low-cost techniques by both researchers and members of the community ('citizen scientists'). Results show that monitoring techniques such as regular consumer specification time-lapse cameras, photographs, videos and 'kite-cams' are suitable for long-term and low-cost monitoring of a variety of NFRM features. These techniques have been compared against

  7. Factors in risk perception

    PubMed

    Sjoberg

    2000-02-01

    Risk perception is a phenomenon in search of an explanation. Several approaches are discussed in this paper. Technical risk estimates are sometimes a potent factor in accounting for perceived risk, but in many important applications it is not. Heuristics and biases, mainly availability, account for only a minor portion of risk perception, and media contents have not been clearly implicated in risk perception. The psychometric model is probably the leading contender in the field, but its explanatory value is only around 20% of the variance of raw data. Adding a factor of "unnatural risk" considerably improves the psychometric model. Cultural Theory, on the other hand, has not been able to explain more than 5-10% of the variance of perceived risk, and other value scales have similarly failed. A model is proposed in which attitude, risk sensitivity, and specific fear are used as explanatory variables; this model seems to explain well over 30-40% of the variance and is thus more promising than previous approaches. The model offers a different type of psychological explanation of risk perception, and it has many implications, e.g., a different approach to the relationship between attitude and perceived risk, as compared with the usual cognitive analysis of attitude. PMID:10795334

  8. Remote sensing and GIS-based landslide risk assessment using a linguistic rule-based fuzzy approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanungo, Debi Prasanna; Arora, Manoj Kumar; Sarkar, Shantanu; Gupta, Ravi Prakash

    2006-12-01

    It is well known that natural disasters such as earthquakes, landslides, floods, etc. cause enormous damage to lives and property. The assessment of risk as a potential for adverse consequences, loss, harm to human population due to the occurrence of natural disasters, particularly the landslides in Himalayan region therefore becomes imperative. Landslide risk assessment (LRA) techniques can be applied at different stages in the decision-making process, starting from developmental planning on a regional scale to a particular site evaluation at local scale. The LRA depends on the probability of landslide hazard and the vulnerability of risk elements. The landslide probability depends on both the preparatory (i.e., inherent ground characteristics) and triggering (i.e., earthquake and rainfall) factors. Vulnerability may be defined as the level of potential damage, or degree of loss, of risk elements subjected to landslide occurrences. The assessment of vulnerability is somewhat subjective and on a regional scale it is largely based on the importance of risk elements in human society. Hence, the appropriate vulnerability factor may be assessed systematically by expert judgment. In the present study, a linguistic rule based fuzzy approach is developed and implemented to prepare the landslide risk assessment (LRA) of Darjeeling Himalayas. The LRA has been considered as a function of landslide potential (LP) and resource damage potential (RDP), which have been characterized by the landslide susceptibility zonation (LSZ) map and the resource map (i.e., land use land cover map including the road network) of the area respectively. Fuzzy membership values representing LP and RDP have been assigned to different categories of LSZ and resource maps based on the criteria developed on a linguistic scale. Landslide risk assessment matrix (LRAM) has been generated as a function of the fuzzy membership values, which reflects the relative risk values for different combinations of

  9. Risk.

    PubMed

    Cole, Stephen R; Hudgens, Michael G; Brookhart, M Alan; Westreich, Daniel

    2015-02-15

    The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

  10. Dynamic simulation as an approach to understanding hurricane risk response: insights from the Stormview lab.

    PubMed

    Meyer, Robert; Broad, Kenneth; Orlove, Ben; Petrovic, Nada

    2013-08-01

    This article investigates the use of dynamic laboratory simulations as a tool for studying decisions to prepare for hurricane threats. A prototype web-based simulation named Stormview is described that allows individuals to experience the approach of a hurricane in a computer-based environment. In Stormview participants can gather storm information through various media, hear the opinions of neighbors, and indicate intentions to take protective action. We illustrate how the ability to exert experimental control over the information viewed by participants can be used to provide insights into decision making that would be difficult to gain from field studies, such as how preparedness decisions are affected by the nature of news coverage of prior storms, how a storm's movement is depicted in graphics, and the content of word-of-mouth communications. Data from an initial application involving a sample of Florida residents reveal a number of unexpected findings about hurricane risk response. Participants who viewed forecast graphics, which contained track lines depicting the most likely path of the storm, for example, had higher levels of preparation than those who saw graphics that showed only uncertainty cones-even among those living far from the predicted center path. Similarly, the participants who were most likely to express worry about an approaching storm and fastest to undertake preparatory action were those who, ironically, had never experienced one. Finally, external validity is evidenced by a close rank-order correspondence between patterns of information use revealed in the lab and that found in previous cross-sectional field studies. PMID:23231496

  11. Need to use probabilistic risk approach in performance assessment of waste disposal facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Bonano, E.J.; Gallegos, D.P.

    1991-01-01

    Regulations governing the disposal of radioactive, hazardous, and/or mixed wastes will likely require, either directly or indirectly, that the performance of disposal facilities be assessed quantitatively. Such analyses, commonly called performance assessments,'' rely on the use of predictive models to arrive at a quantitative estimate of the potential impact of disposal on the environment and the safety and health of the public. It has been recognized that a suite of uncertainties affect the results of a performance assessment. These uncertainties are conventionally categorized as (1) uncertainty in the future state of the disposal system (facility and surrounding medium), (2) uncertainty in models (including conceptual models, mathematical models, and computer codes), and (3) uncertainty in data and parameters. Decisions regarding the suitability of a waste disposal facility must be made in light of these uncertainties. Hence, an approach is needed that would allow the explicit consideration of these uncertainties so that their impact on the estimated consequences of disposal can be evaluated. While most regulations for waste disposal do not prescribe the consideration of uncertainties, it is proposed that, even in such cases, a meaningful decision regarding the suitability of a waste disposal facility cannot be made without considering the impact of the attendant uncertainties. A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach provides the formalism for considering the uncertainties and the technical basis that the decision makers can use in discharging their duties. A PRA methodology developed and demonstrated for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste provides a general framework for assessing the disposal of all types of wastes (radioactive, hazardous, and mixed). 15 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  12. Eastern Australian Coastal Behaviour in Response to Extreme Storm Climate Between 1600-1900 AD, Determined from a Coupled Climate Reconstruction and Coastal Morphodynamic Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goodwin, I. D.; Browning, S. A.; Mortlock, T.

    2014-12-01

    A sustained morphodynamic reorganisation of the east Australian coast occurred over a large latitudinal gradient from subtropical Queensland (S 25°) to mid-latitude Bass Strait (S 40°) between ~1600 to 1900 CE. These changes indicate that a large-scale shift in the modal climate occurred together with changes in extreme storm frequency or clustering of East Coast Cyclones (ECC), when compared to the past century. ECC are complex subtropical weather systems that form off the east coast of Australia and/or travel parallel to the coast of Australia from south-east Queensland to Victoria. We investigate coastal evolution and the associated climate drivers using a novel combination of methods, including: LIDAR DEM and field mapping of coastal geology; a decadal-scale climate reconstruction of sea-level pressure, marine windfields, and paleo-storm synoptic type and frequency, using a paleoclimate data assimilation approach; together with wave transformation and coastal planform modelling for paleo-wave directions, and historical bathymetry. We present the morphodynamic response to changes in directional wave power, by linking the paleo-windfield reconstruction to wave transformation models. The combined methodology has illuminated the 'ultimate' storm impacts not seen in the past century, and defines the multi-decadal coastal system response and recovery to extreme storm sequences. Increased embaymentisation and anticlockwise rotation of embayed and barrier coast planform geometry; shifts in barrier-estuary-inlet configuration; and a ubiquitous foredune transgression, are shown to have occurred between ~1600 to 1800 CE. This was in response to a poleward shift in the subtropics and frequency of tradewind-driven wave climate, and tropical-origin storms. From 1800 to 1900 CE, an equatorward shift in the subtropics, and clustering of extratropical-origin storms drove an increase in the shoreface-littoral sediment budget and a clockwise coastline progradation. This

  13. Environmental Risk Evaluation System – An Approach to Ranking Risk of Ocean Energy Development on Coastal and Estuarine Environments

    SciTech Connect

    Copping, Andrea E.; Hanna, Luke A.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Blake, Kara M.; Anderson, Richard M.

    2015-01-01

    Deployment and operation of ocean energy devices does not represent the first foray into industrialization of the oceans; shipping, nearshore development, waste disposal, subsea mining, oil and gas extraction, and large-scale commercial fishing all coexist in various states of equilibrium with the marine environment. In most cases these industries were developed without a clear understanding of the likely outcomes of large-scale development. In virtually every country where the harvest of ocean energy is emerging, regulators and stakeholders require that the industry examine potential effects of devices, minimize the footprint of effects, and provide management measures that either avoid the impacts or mitigate to further reduce the residual impacts. The ERES analysis is based on scenarios that are consistent with sequences of events that lead to adverse impacts, distinguishing between episodic, intermittent, and chronic risks. In the context of ocean energy development, an episodic scenario might involve the exceedingly rare but potentially devastating event of an oil spill from vessels caused by the presence of the device, while vulnerable receptors are present; understanding the risk of such a scenario involves determining the probability of the occurrence by examining factors such as the petroleum content of ocean energy devices, the vessel traffic volume and the proximity of shipping lanes to the ocean energy devices, the reliability of the control measures to avoid an episodic event, and the likely presence of seabirds, marine mammals, or fish that may be affected by oil. In contrast, chronic risk scenarios involve events or circumstances that are continuous, so that risk characterization involves assessing only the severity of the consequences. An example of a chronic risk scenario might be the toxicity to marine organisms due to low-level chemical releases from anti-biofouling paints and coatings that may be used on devices, and the effect that the level of

  14. Wildfire risk for main vegetation units in a biodiversity hotspot: modeling approach in New Caledonia, South Pacific.

    PubMed

    Gomez, Céline; Mangeas, Morgan; Curt, Thomas; Ibanez, Thomas; Munzinger, Jérôme; Dumas, Pascal; Jérémy, André; Despinoy, Marc; Hély, Christelle

    2015-01-01

    Wildfire has been recognized as one of the most ubiquitous disturbance agents to impact on natural environments. In this study, our main objective was to propose a modeling approach to investigate the potential impact of wildfire on biodiversity. The method is illustrated with an application example in New Caledonia where conservation and sustainable biodiversity management represent an important challenge. Firstly, a biodiversity loss index, including the diversity and the vulnerability indexes, was calculated for every vegetation unit in New Caledonia and mapped according to its distribution over the New Caledonian mainland. Then, based on spatially explicit fire behavior simulations (using the FLAMMAP software) and fire ignition probabilities, two original fire risk assessment approaches were proposed: a one-off event model and a multi-event burn probability model. The spatial distribution of fire risk across New Caledonia was similar for both indices with very small localized spots having high risk. The patterns relating to highest risk are all located around the remaining sclerophyll forest fragments and are representing 0.012% of the mainland surface. A small part of maquis and areas adjacent to dense humid forest on ultramafic substrates should also be monitored. Vegetation interfaces between secondary and primary units displayed high risk and should represent priority zones for fire effects mitigation. Low fire ignition probability in anthropogenic-free areas decreases drastically the risk. A one-off event associated risk allowed localizing of the most likely ignition areas with potential for extensive damage. Emergency actions could aim limiting specific fire spread known to have high impact or consist of on targeting high risk areas to limit one-off fire ignitions. Spatially explicit information on burning probability is necessary for setting strategic fire and fuel management planning. Both risk indices provide clues to preserve New Caledonia hot spot of

  15. Wildfire risk for main vegetation units in a biodiversity hotspot: modeling approach in New Caledonia, South Pacific

    PubMed Central

    Gomez, Céline; Mangeas, Morgan; Curt, Thomas; Ibanez, Thomas; Munzinger, Jérôme; Dumas, Pascal; Jérémy, André; Despinoy, Marc; Hély, Christelle

    2015-01-01

    Wildfire has been recognized as one of the most ubiquitous disturbance agents to impact on natural environments. In this study, our main objective was to propose a modeling approach to investigate the potential impact of wildfire on biodiversity. The method is illustrated with an application example in New Caledonia where conservation and sustainable biodiversity management represent an important challenge. Firstly, a biodiversity loss index, including the diversity and the vulnerability indexes, was calculated for every vegetation unit in New Caledonia and mapped according to its distribution over the New Caledonian mainland. Then, based on spatially explicit fire behavior simulations (using the FLAMMAP software) and fire ignition probabilities, two original fire risk assessment approaches were proposed: a one-off event model and a multi-event burn probability model. The spatial distribution of fire risk across New Caledonia was similar for both indices with very small localized spots having high risk. The patterns relating to highest risk are all located around the remaining sclerophyll forest fragments and are representing 0.012% of the mainland surface. A small part of maquis and areas adjacent to dense humid forest on ultramafic substrates should also be monitored. Vegetation interfaces between secondary and primary units displayed high risk and should represent priority zones for fire effects mitigation. Low fire ignition probability in anthropogenic-free areas decreases drastically the risk. A one-off event associated risk allowed localizing of the most likely ignition areas with potential for extensive damage. Emergency actions could aim limiting specific fire spread known to have high impact or consist of on targeting high risk areas to limit one-off fire ignitions. Spatially explicit information on burning probability is necessary for setting strategic fire and fuel management planning. Both risk indices provide clues to preserve New Caledonia hot spot of

  16. Automatic Classification of Structured Product Labels for Pregnancy Risk Drug Categories, a Machine Learning Approach

    PubMed Central

    Rodriguez, Laritza M.; Fushman, Dina Demner

    2015-01-01

    With regular expressions and manual review, 18,342 FDA-approved drug product labels were processed to determine if the five standard pregnancy drug risk categories were mentioned in the label. After excluding 81 drugs with multiple-risk categories, 83% of the labels had a risk category within the text and 17% labels did not. We trained a Sequential Minimal Optimization algorithm on the labels containing pregnancy risk information segmented into standard document sections. For the evaluation of the classifier on the testing set, we used the Micromedex drug risk categories. The precautions section had the best performance for assigning drug risk categories, achieving Accuracy 0.79, Precision 0.66, Recall 0.64 and F1 measure 0.65. Missing pregnancy risk categories could be suggested using machine learning algorithms trained on the existing publicly available pregnancy risk information. PMID:26958248

  17. NEW APPROACHES IN RISK ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL STRESSORS TO HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We explore the application of novel techniques for improving and integrating risk analysis of environmental stressors to human and ecological systems. Environmental protection decisions are guided by risk assessments serving as tools to develop regulatory policy and other relate...

  18. AN APPROACH TO PREDICT RISKS TO WILDLIFE POPULATIONS FROM MERCURY AND OTHER STRESSORS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (NHEERL) is developing tools for predicting risks of multiple stressors to wildlife populations, which support the development of risk-based protective criteria. NHEERL's res...

  19. The multiscale importance of road segments in a network disruption scenario: a risk-based approach.

    PubMed

    Freiria, Susana; Tavares, Alexandre O; Pedro Julião, Rui

    2015-03-01

    This article addresses the problem of the multiscale importance of road networks, with the aim of helping to establish a more resilient network in the event of a road disruption scenario. A new model for identifying the most important roads is described and applied on a local and regional scale. The work presented here represents a step forward, since it focuses on the interaction between identifying the most important roads in a network that connect people and health services, the specificity of the natural hazards that threaten the normal functioning of the network, and an assessment of the consequences of three real-world interruptions from a multiscale perspective. The case studies concern three different past events: road interruptions due to a flood, a forest fire, and a mass movement. On the basis of the results obtained, it is possible to establish the roads for which risk management should be a priority. The multiscale perspective shows that in a road interruption the regional system may have the capacity to reorganize itself, although the interruption may have consequences for local dynamics. Coordination between local and regional scales is therefore important. The model proposed here allows for the scaling of emergency response facilities and human and physical resources. It represents an innovative approach to defining priorities, not only in the prevention phase but also in terms of the response to natural disasters, such as awareness of the consequences of road disruption for the rescue services sent out to local communities. PMID:25263956

  20. A risk-based approach to management of leachables utilizing statistical analysis of extractables.

    PubMed

    Stults, Cheryl L M; Mikl, Jaromir; Whelehan, Oliver; Morrical, Bradley; Duffield, William; Nagao, Lee M

    2015-04-01

    To incorporate quality by design concepts into the management of leachables, an emphasis is often put on understanding the extractable profile for the materials of construction for manufacturing disposables, container-closure, or delivery systems. Component manufacturing processes may also impact the extractable profile. An approach was developed to (1) identify critical components that may be sources of leachables, (2) enable an understanding of manufacturing process factors that affect extractable profiles, (3) determine if quantitative models can be developed that predict the effect of those key factors, and (4) evaluate the practical impact of the key factors on the product. A risk evaluation for an inhalation product identified injection molding as a key process. Designed experiments were performed to evaluate the impact of molding process parameters on the extractable profile from an ABS inhaler component. Statistical analysis of the resulting GC chromatographic profiles identified processing factors that were correlated with peak levels in the extractable profiles. The combination of statistically significant molding process parameters was different for different types of extractable compounds. ANOVA models were used to obtain optimal process settings and predict extractable levels for a selected number of compounds. The proposed paradigm may be applied to evaluate the impact of material composition and processing parameters on extractable profiles and utilized to manage product leachables early in the development process and throughout the product lifecycle. PMID:25294001

  1. Risk Perception of Nonspecific Low Back Pain among Nurses: A Qualitative Approach

    PubMed Central

    Abedini, Sedigheh; Morowatisharifabad, Mohammad Ali; Enjezab, Behnaz; Barkhordari, Abolfazl; Fallahzadeh, Hossein

    2014-01-01

    Background:Low back pain (LBP) is a common medical problem among nurses. A better understanding of nurses’ experiences about LBP may help to develop preventative approaches. The study aimed to explore risk perceptions of nonspecific LBP among nurses in Bandar Abbas City, southern Iran. Methods: This qualitative study conducted as directed content analysis in 2013. Private semi-structured interviews were conducted with a convenience sample of 30 nurses with minimum of 1-year working experience in hospital. The interview questions were based on perceived severity and vulnerability structures of Protection Motivation Theory. All interviews were transcribed and analyzed using thematic analysis. Results: Perceived Severity had the following sub-themes: developing disorders in one’s own life and profession, psychical and mental consequences, conflicts and problems in family life, and financial problems. Two sub-themes (problems and limitations in hospital’s working system, nature of nursing profession) were identified in relation to perceived vulnerability. Conclusion: Nurses reflected their concerns about the impact of LBP on their job security and their considerations about how their back pain might be interpreted by their employers and co-workers. Importance of transparent medical diagnostic procedure and clinical evidence to justify degree of LBP and its burden on the nurses’ performance was also addressed. PMID:25648952

  2. Assessing Flood Risk from Hurricane-induced Precipitation and Storm Surge: A Bayesian Network Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sebastian, A.; Dupuits, E. J. C.; Morales-Napoles, O.

    2015-12-01

    Hurricanes pose a major flood hazard to communities on the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. Over the past decade, the economic costs associated with hurricane flood damages have escalated and recent studies indicate that a large percentage of flood damages are occurring outside of FEMA-designated flood hazard areas. While FEMA recently upgraded coastal flood hazard maps using the Advanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) Model, these maps do not consider the flood hazard resulting from the joint occurrence of precipitation over the watershed and storm surge at the coast. Instead, the two individual hazards are mapped separately, ignoring the floodplain resulting from their interaction.In this study, a risk assessment methodology was developed to predict the damages associated with hurricane-induced flooding in the Houston Galveston Bay Area. Historical hurricanes were analyzed to derive probability distributions for storm surge height, cumulative precipitation, hurricane landfall, wind speed, angle of approach, radius to maximum winds, and forward speed. A Bayesian Network was built and used to simulate a large number of synthetic storms. The resulting 1% combinations of storm surge and precipitation were applied as boundary conditions to a hydraulic modeled and the maximum extent of flooding was compared to the FEMA-designated flood hazard areas. A high resolution GIS-based model was used to predict damages.

  3. Stem cell gene therapy: the risks of insertional mutagenesis and approaches to minimize genotoxicity

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Chuanfeng

    2012-01-01

    Virus-based vectors are widely used in hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) gene therapy, and have the ability to integrate permanently into genomic DNA, thus driving long-term expression of corrective genes in all hematopoieti