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Sample records for added risk approach

  1. Underweight Seniors May Have Added Alzheimer's Risk

    MedlinePlus

    ... fullstory_160278.html Underweight Seniors May Have Added Alzheimer's Risk Study links lower body weight to increased ... older adults' risk of the memory-robbing disorder Alzheimer's disease, new research suggests. The study included 280 ...

  2. Approaches to acceptable risk

    SciTech Connect

    Whipple, C.

    1997-04-30

    Several alternative approaches to address the question {open_quotes}How safe is safe enough?{close_quotes} are reviewed and an attempt is made to apply the reasoning behind these approaches to the issue of acceptability of radiation exposures received in space. The approaches to the issue of the acceptability of technological risk described here are primarily analytical, and are drawn from examples in the management of environmental health risks. These include risk-based approaches, in which specific quantitative risk targets determine the acceptability of an activity, and cost-benefit and decision analysis, which generally focus on the estimation and evaluation of risks, benefits and costs, in a framework that balances these factors against each other. These analytical methods tend by their quantitative nature to emphasize the magnitude of risks, costs and alternatives, and to downplay other factors, especially those that are not easily expressed in quantitative terms, that affect acceptance or rejection of risk. Such other factors include the issues of risk perceptions and how and by whom risk decisions are made.

  3. Regional white matter hyperintensities: aging, AD risk, and cognitive function

    PubMed Central

    Birdsill, Alex C; Koscik, Rebecca L; Jonaitis, Erin M; Johnson, Sterling C; Okonkwo, Ozioma C; Hermann, Bruce P; LaRue, Asenath; Sager, Mark A; Bendlin, Barbara B

    2013-01-01

    White matter hyperintensities (WMH) of presumed vascular origin as seen on T2-weighted fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), are known to increase with age and are elevated in Alzheimer’s disease (AD). The cognitive implications of these common markers are not well understood. Previous research has primarily focused on global measures of WMH burden and broad localizations that contain multiple white matter tracts. The aims of this study were to determine the pattern of WMH accumulation with age, risk for AD, and the relationship with cognitive function utilizing a voxel-wise analysis capable of identifying specific white matter regions. Three hundred and forty-nine participants underwent T1-weighted and high-resolution T2FLAIR MRI and neuropsychological testing. Increasing age and lower cognitive speed and flexibility (a component of executive function), were both significantly associated with regional WMH throughout the brain. When age was controlled, lower cognitive speed and flexibility was independently associated with WMH in the superior corona radiata. APOE4 and parental family history of AD were not associated with higher burden of WMH. The results contribute to a larger body of literature suggesting that white matter measures are linked with processing speed, and illustrate the utility of voxel-wise analysis in understanding the effect of lesion location on cognitive function. PMID:24199958

  4. Adding prediction risk to the theory of reward learning.

    PubMed

    Preuschoff, Kerstin; Bossaerts, Peter

    2007-05-01

    This article analyzes the simple Rescorla-Wagner learning rule from the vantage point of least squares learning theory. In particular, it suggests how measures of risk, such as prediction risk, can be used to adjust the learning constant in reinforcement learning. It argues that prediction risk is most effectively incorporated by scaling the prediction errors. This way, the learning rate needs adjusting only when the covariance between optimal predictions and past (scaled) prediction errors changes. Evidence is discussed that suggests that the dopaminergic system in the (human and nonhuman) primate brain encodes prediction risk, and that prediction errors are indeed scaled with prediction risk (adaptive encoding).

  5. Perturbative and non-perturbative approaches to the quantum AdS5xS5 superstring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McKeown, Ryan

    This dissertation spans perturbative to non-perturbative approaches of testing and using integrability of the IIB superstring in the AdS5xS 5 background. The integrability-based solution of string theories related to AdS n/CFTn-1 dualities relies on the worldsheet S matrix. In chapter 2 we use generalized unitarity to construct the terms with logarithmic dependence on external momenta at one- and two-loop order in the worldsheet S matrix for strings in a general integrable worldsheet theory. We also discuss aspects of calculations as it extends to higher orders. The S-matrix elements are expressed as sums of integrals with coefficients given in terms of tree-level worldsheet four-point scattering amplitudes. Off-diagonal one-loop rational functions, not determined by two-dimensional unitarity cuts, are fixed by symmetry considerations. They play an important role in the determination of the two-loop logarithmic contributions. We illustrate the general analysis by computing the logarithmic terms in the one- and two-loop four-particle S-matrix elements in the massive worldsheet sectors of string theory in AdS5xS5, AdS4xCP 3, AdS3xS3xS3xS 1 and AdS3xS3xT4. We explore the structure of the S matrices and provide explicit evidence for the absence of higher-order logarithms and for the exponentiation of the one-loop dressing phase. In chapter 3 we will construct the full coset space of AdS5xS5 SO4,1xSO 5 in terms of a Gross-Neveu model. After this non-perturbative transformation we have shown the theory to be UV finite at 1 loop and furthermore that it exhibits some non-local integrals of motion through a Lax connection. The integrability of string theory in AdS5xS 5 and of the dilatation operator of N = 4 super-Yang-Mills theory has been used to propose an exact solution to the spectral problem in these theories. Weak coupling perturbation theory both in gauge theory and on the worldsheet has been extensively used to verify this solution. In chapter 4 we demonstrate

  6. The Principal Axis Approach to Value-Added Calculation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    He, Qingping; Tymms, Peter

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of the achievement of students and the quality of schools has drawn increasing attention from educational researchers, policy makers, and practitioners. Various test-based accountability and feedback systems involving the use of value-added techniques have been developed for evaluating the effectiveness of individual teaching…

  7. Home hygiene: a risk approach.

    PubMed

    Bloomfield, Sally F

    2003-01-01

    The need to place "prevention through hygiene" at the core of strategies for infection prevention has been emphasised by recent events. Indications are that re-evaluation of current practice and the promotion of improved hygiene in the domestic setting could have a significant impact in reducing infectious disease. If the public are to play a part however they must be properly informed. Encouraging the concept of the home as a setting in which the whole range of activities occur, including food hygiene, personal hygiene and hygiene related to medical care, provides the opportunity for a rational approach to home hygiene based on risk assessment. In the home surfaces (including hand surfaces) and other sites play an important part in the transmission of infection, especially food-borne infections. From an assessment of the frequency of occurrence of pathogens and potential pathogens at reservoirs, disseminators and hand and food contact sites together with the potential for transfer within the home, the risks of exposure can be assessed. This can be used to develop a rational approach in which effective hygiene procedures involving cleaning and disinfection as appropriate are targeted at these sites to reduce risks of cross contamination. This approach is consistent with the view that good home hygiene is not about "getting rid of household germs" but about targeting hygiene measures appropriately to reduce exposure to germs and thereby prevent cross infection. In motivating change, education programmes must take account of concerns related to antimicrobial resistance, the environment and the "health" of the immune system. PMID:12621897

  8. Interpreting incremental value of markers added to risk prediction models.

    PubMed

    Pencina, Michael J; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Pencina, Karol M; Janssens, A Cecile J W; Greenland, Philip

    2012-09-15

    The discrimination of a risk prediction model measures that model's ability to distinguish between subjects with and without events. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is a popular measure of discrimination. However, the AUC has recently been criticized for its insensitivity in model comparisons in which the baseline model has performed well. Thus, 2 other measures have been proposed to capture improvement in discrimination for nested models: the integrated discrimination improvement and the continuous net reclassification improvement. In the present study, the authors use mathematical relations and numerical simulations to quantify the improvement in discrimination offered by candidate markers of different strengths as measured by their effect sizes. They demonstrate that the increase in the AUC depends on the strength of the baseline model, which is true to a lesser degree for the integrated discrimination improvement. On the other hand, the continuous net reclassification improvement depends only on the effect size of the candidate variable and its correlation with other predictors. These measures are illustrated using the Framingham model for incident atrial fibrillation. The authors conclude that the increase in the AUC, integrated discrimination improvement, and net reclassification improvement offer complementary information and thus recommend reporting all 3 alongside measures characterizing the performance of the final model.

  9. Practical approaches to risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Brooke-Taylor, S

    2001-06-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing food regulations is growing with the globalization of our food supply. The World Trade Organization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. The relevant international organization for food standards, the Codex Alimentarius Commission, recognises risk analysis, and its component parts risk assessment, risk management and risk communication, as the basis for scientific decision-making. Risk assessment comprises two activities: hazard evaluation; and exposure estimation. A hazard may be chemical, microbiological or nutritional in origin. The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation by four examples involving: (1) food additives, (2) microbiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses, (3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection.

  10. Added sugars and risk factors for obesity, diabetes and heart disease.

    PubMed

    Rippe, J M; Angelopoulos, T J

    2016-03-01

    The effects of added sugars on various chronic conditions are highly controversial. Some investigators have argued that added sugars increase the risk of obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease. However, few randomized controlled trials are available to support these assertions. The literature is further complicated by animal studies, as well as studies which compare pure fructose to pure glucose (neither of which is consumed to any appreciable degree in the human diet) and studies where large doses of added sugars beyond normal levels of human consumption have been administered. Various scientific and public health organizations have offered disparate recommendations for upper limits of added sugar. In this article, we will review recent randomized controlled trials and prospective cohort studies. We conclude that the normal added sugars in the human diet (for example, sucrose, high-fructose corn syrup and isoglucose) when consumed within the normal range of normal human consumption or substituted isoenergetically for other carbohydrates, do not appear to cause a unique risk of obesity, diabetes or cardiovascular disease. PMID:27001643

  11. Adding carotid total plaque area to the Framingham risk score improves cardiovascular risk classification

    PubMed Central

    Perez, Hernan A.; Spence, John David; Armando, Luis J.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Cardiovascular events (CE) due to atherosclerosis are preventable. Identification of high-risk patients helps to focus resources on those most likely to benefit from expensive therapy. Atherosclerosis is not considered for patient risk categorization, even though a fraction of CE are predicted by Framingham risk factors. Our objective was to assess the incremental value of combining total plaque area (TPA) with the Framingham risk score (FramSc) using post-test probability (Ptp) in order to categorize risk in patients without CE and identify those at high risk and requiring intensive treatment. Material and methods A descriptive cross-sectional study was performed in the primary care setting in an Argentine population aged 22–90 years without CE. Both FramSc based on body mass index and Ptp-TPA were employed in 2035 patients for risk stratification and the resulting reclassification was compared. Total plaque area was measured with a high-resolution duplex ultrasound scanner. Results 57% male, 35% hypertensive, 27% hypercholesterolemia, 14% diabetes. 20.1% were low, 28.5% moderate, and 51.5% high risk. When patients were reclassified, 36% of them changed status; 24.1% migrated to a higher and 13.6% to a lower risk level (κ index = 0.360, SE κ = 0.16, p < 0.05, FramSc vs. Ptp-TPA). With this reclassification, 19.3% were low, 18.9% moderate and 61.8% high risk. Conclusions Quantification of Ptp-TPA leads to higher risk estimation than FramSc, suggesting that Ptp-TPA may be more sensitive than FramSc as a screening tool. If our observation is confirmed with a prospective study, this reclassification would improve the long-term benefits related to CE prevention. PMID:27279842

  12. A Humanistic Approach to Emotional Risk Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rubendall, Robert L.

    Adventure programs attempt to control or limit injuries in high-risk programming. This risk management has concentrated on the physical safety of participants at the expense of emotional and developmental security. In the zeal for accident-free statistics, a highly controlled, directive approach is created that treats individuals according to a…

  13. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    PubMed

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates.

  14. Using a 'value-added' approach for contextual design of geographic information.

    PubMed

    May, Andrew J

    2013-11-01

    The aim of this article is to demonstrate how a 'value-added' approach can be used for user-centred design of geographic information. An information science perspective was used, with value being the difference in outcomes arising from alternative information sets. Sixteen drivers navigated a complex, unfamiliar urban route, using visual and verbal instructions representing the distance-to-turn and junction layout information presented by typical satellite navigation systems. Data measuring driving errors, navigation errors and driver confidence were collected throughout the trial. The results show how driver performance varied considerably according to the geographic context at specific locations, and that there are specific opportunities to add value with enhanced geographical information. The conclusions are that a value-added approach facilitates a more explicit focus on 'desired' (and feasible) levels of end user performance with different information sets, and is a potentially effective approach to user-centred design of geographic information.

  15. New insights on the risk for cardiovascular disease in African Americans: the role of added sugars.

    PubMed

    Saab, Karim R; Kendrick, Jessica; Yracheta, Joseph M; Lanaspa, Miguel A; Pollard, Maisha; Johnson, Richard J

    2015-02-01

    African Americans are at increased risk for cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, including obesity, high BP, diabetes, CKD, myocardial infarction, and stroke. Here we summarize the current risks and provide an overview of the underlying risk factors that may account for these associations. By reviewing the relationship between cardiovascular and renal diseases and the African-American population during the early 20th century, the historic and recent associations of African heritage with cardiovascular disease, and modern population genetics, it is possible to assemble strong hypotheses for the primary underlying mechanisms driving the increased frequency of disease in African Americans. Our studies suggest that underlying genetic mechanisms may be responsible for the increased frequency of high BP and kidney disease in African Americans, with particular emphasis on the role of APOL1 polymorphisms in causing kidney disease. In contrast, the Western diet, particularly the relatively high intake of fructose-containing sugars and sweetened beverages, appears to be the dominant force driving the increased risk of diabetes, obesity, and downstream complications. Given that intake of added sugars is a remediable risk factor, we recommend clinical trials to examine the reduction of sweetened beverages as a primary means for reducing cardiovascular risk in African Americans. PMID:25090991

  16. New Insights on the Risk for Cardiovascular Disease in African Americans: The Role of Added Sugars

    PubMed Central

    Saab, Karim R.; Kendrick, Jessica; Yracheta, Joseph M.; Lanaspa, Miguel A.; Pollard, Maisha

    2015-01-01

    African Americans are at increased risk for cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, including obesity, high BP, diabetes, CKD, myocardial infarction, and stroke. Here we summarize the current risks and provide an overview of the underlying risk factors that may account for these associations. By reviewing the relationship between cardiovascular and renal diseases and the African-American population during the early 20th century, the historic and recent associations of African heritage with cardiovascular disease, and modern population genetics, it is possible to assemble strong hypotheses for the primary underlying mechanisms driving the increased frequency of disease in African Americans. Our studies suggest that underlying genetic mechanisms may be responsible for the increased frequency of high BP and kidney disease in African Americans, with particular emphasis on the role of APOL1 polymorphisms in causing kidney disease. In contrast, the Western diet, particularly the relatively high intake of fructose-containing sugars and sweetened beverages, appears to be the dominant force driving the increased risk of diabetes, obesity, and downstream complications. Given that intake of added sugars is a remediable risk factor, we recommend clinical trials to examine the reduction of sweetened beverages as a primary means for reducing cardiovascular risk in African Americans. PMID:25090991

  17. Russian risk assessment methods and approaches

    SciTech Connect

    Dvorack, M.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Smith, R.E.

    1996-07-01

    One of the benefits resulting from the collapse of the Soviet Union is the increased dialogue currently taking place between American and Russian nuclear weapons scientists in various technical arenas. One of these arenas currently being investigated involves collaborative studies which illustrate how risk assessment is perceived and utilized in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). The collaborative studies indicate that, while similarities exist with respect to some methodologies, the assumptions and approaches in performing risk assessments were, and still are, somewhat different in the FSU as opposed to that in the US. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the present knowledge of risk assessment methodologies and philosophies within the two largest nuclear weapons laboratories of the Former Soviet Union, Arzamas-16 and Chelyabinsk-70. Furthermore, This paper will address the relative progress of new risk assessment methodologies, such as Fuzzy Logic, within the framework of current risk assessment methods at these two institutes.

  18. Approaches to acceptable risk: a critical guide

    SciTech Connect

    Fischhoff, B.; Lichtenstein, S.; Slovic, P.; Keeney, R.; Derby, S.

    1980-12-01

    Acceptable-risk decisions are an essential step in the management of technological hazards. In many situations, they constitute the weak (or missing) link in the management process. The absence of an adequate decision-making methodology often produces indecision, inconsistency, and dissatisfaction. The result is neither good for hazard management nor good for society. This report offers a critical analysis of the viability of various approaches as guides to acceptable-risk decisions. This report seeks to define acceptable-risk decisions and to examine some frequently proposed, but inappropriate, solutions. 255 refs., 22 figs., 25 tabs.

  19. Political side of risk: a new approach

    SciTech Connect

    Sorenson, J.B.; Trauth, C.A. Jr.

    1980-01-01

    The resolution of many of the Nation's most-serious problems today is hampered by our apparent inability to systematically deal with the socio-political dimensions of the societal acceptance of risks in areas of technical development, decision making, and policy formulation. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the energy field. The nature of public hazards has changed drastically during the past half century or so, driving public considerations of risk into the political realm. This has given many of the socio-political parameters underlying individual, group, and institutional perception and acceptance of risk an importance not typically recognized in technical approaches to risk assessment. As a result, there is now a large gap between technically based views of risk and societal views of risk which, the authors feel, is largely responsible for impeding the resolution of the national problems alluded to above. This paper proposes a general approach toward closing this gap, by using indicators from the political system to measure public perceptions and acceptance of risk, as a continuing function of time, to provide the technical community and policy and decision makers a basis from which to more effectively meet societal environmental, safety, and health goals. 15 references, 6 figures.

  20. Reducing added sugar intake in Norway by replacing sugar sweetened beverages with beverages containing intense sweeteners - a risk benefit assessment.

    PubMed

    Husøy, T; Mangschou, B; Fotland, T Ø; Kolset, S O; Nøtvik Jakobsen, H; Tømmerberg, I; Bergsten, C; Alexander, J; Frost Andersen, L

    2008-09-01

    A risk benefit assessment in Norway on the intake of added sugar, intense sweeteners and benzoic acid from beverages, and the influence of changing from sugar sweetened to diet beverages was performed. National dietary surveys were used in the exposure assessment, and the content of added sugar and food additives were calculated based on actual contents used in beverages and sales volumes provided by the manufactures. The daily intake of sugar, intense sweeteners and benzoic acid were estimated for children (1- to 13-years-old) and adults according to the current intake level and a substitution scenario where it was assumed that all consumed beverages contained intense sweeteners. The change from sugar sweetened to diet beverages reduced the total intake of added sugar for all age groups but especially for adolescent. This change did not result in intake of intense sweeteners from beverages above the respective ADIs. However, the intake of acesulfame K approached ADI for small children and the total intake of benzoic acid was increased to above ADI for most age groups. The highest intake of benzoic acid was observed for 1- to 2-year-old children, and benzoic acid intake in Norwegian children is therefore considered to be of special concern.

  1. A retrospective comparison of androgen deprivation (AD) vs. no AD among low-risk and intermediate-risk prostate cancer patients treated with brachytherapy, external beam radiotherapy, or radical prostatectomy

    SciTech Connect

    Ciezki, Jay P. . E-mail: ciezkij@ccf.org; Klein, Eric A.; Angermeier, Kenneth; Ulchaker, James; Chehade, Nabil; Altman, Andrew; Mahadevan, Arul; Reddy, Chandana A.

    2004-12-01

    Purpose: To examine the value of androgen deprivation (AD) in the curative treatment of low- and intermediate-risk prostate cancer treated with the three major modalities: radical retropubic prostatectomy (RRP), external beam radiotherapy (EBRT), and permanent prostate implantation (PI). Methods and materials: During 1996-2001, 1668 patients with low- and intermediate-risk prostate cancer were treated at The Cleveland Clinic Foundation. Only patients with a minimum of 2 years of prostate-specific antigen follow-up were included in the analysis, and biochemical relapse-free survival (bRFS) was used as the endpoint. Patients were grouped according to treatment modality and stratified according to the use of AD. Results: The overall 5-year bRFS rate was 87.8%. The 5-year bRFS rate for low-risk patients was 89% and for intermediate-risk patients was 79%. For low-risk patients, the 5-year bRFS rates by treatment modality (without AD vs. with AD, respectively) were PI: 90% vs. 93%; EBRT: 90% vs. 93%; and RRP: 89% vs. 84%. For intermediate-risk patients, the 5-year bRFS rates by treatment modality (without AD vs. with AD, respectively) were PI: 88% vs. 82%; EBRT: 81% vs. 84%; and RRP: 75% vs. 72%. None of the comparisons within risk groups or among modalities supports an increased efficacy with the use of AD. Conclusion: Five-year bRFS rates in low-risk and intermediate-risk patients are not improved by the use of AD.

  2. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

  3. A physical approach on flood risk vulnerability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazzorana, Bruno; Fuchs, Sven; Keiler, Margreth

    2013-04-01

    The design of efficient flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the elements exposed to flood hazard. Recently, extensive research efforts were undertaken to develop and refine empirical relationships linking the structural vulnerability of buildings to the intensity of the impacting water-related hazard processes. These empirical vulnerability functions allow for an estimation of the expected direct losses as a result of the hazard scenario on the basis of a spatially explicit representation of the process patterns and the elements at risk, and improve both risk assessments and cost-benefit analyses of planned mitigation strategies. However, due to the underlying empiricism of such vulnerability functions, the physics of the damage generating mechanisms remain unveiled, and, as such, the applicability of the empirical approach for planning hazard-proof residential buildings is rather limited. Therefore, we propose a conceptual assessment scheme to close this gap. This assessment scheme comprises distinct analytical steps: (a) modelling the process intensity and (b) the impact on the element at risk exposed, (c) the physical response of the building envelope, (d) the damage accounting and (f) the economic damage valuation. This dynamic assessment supports all relevant planning activities with respect to a minimisation of flood hazard losses, and can be implemented in the operational risk assessment procedure.

  4. MYRRHA, a Pb-Bi experimental ADS: specific approach to radiation protection aspects.

    PubMed

    Abderrahim, H Aït; Aoust, Th; Malambu, E; Sobolev, V; Van Tichelen, K; De Bruyn, D; Maes, D; Haeck, W; Van den Eynde, G

    2005-01-01

    Since 1998, SCK*CEN, in partnership with IBA s.a. and many European research laboratories, is designing a multipurpose accelerator driven system (ADS) for Research and Development (R&D) applications-MYRRHA-and is conducting an associated R&D support programme. MYRRHA is an ADS under development at Mol in Belgium and is aiming to serve as a basis for the European experimental ADS to provide protons and neutrons for various R&D applications. It consists of a proton accelerator delivering a 350 MeV x 5 mA proton beam to a liquid Pb-Bi spallation target that in turn couples to a Pb-Bi cooled, subcritical fast core. In the first stage, the project focuses mainly on demonstration of the ADS concept, safety research on sub-critical systems and nuclear waste transmutation studies. In a later stage, the device will also be dedicated to research on structural materials, nuclear fuel, liquid metal technology and associated aspects, and on sub-critical reactor physics. Subsequently, it will be used for research on applications such as radioisotope production. A first preliminary conceptual design file of MYRRHA was completed by the end of 2001 and has been reviewed by an International Technical Guidance Committee, which concluded that there are no show stoppers in the project and even though some topics such as the safety studies and the fuel qualification need to be addressed more deeply before concluding it. In this paper, we are reporting on the state-of-the art of the MYRRHA project at the beginning of 2004 and in particular on the radiation shielding assessment and the radiation protection particular aspects through a remote handling operation approach in order to minimise the personnel exposure to radiation.

  5. Towards a nanospecific approach for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Dekkers, Susan; Oomen, Agnes G; Bleeker, Eric A J; Vandebriel, Rob J; Micheletti, Christian; Cabellos, Joan; Janer, Gemma; Fuentes, Natalia; Vázquez-Campos, Socorro; Borges, Teresa; Silva, Maria João; Prina-Mello, Adriele; Movia, Dania; Nesslany, Fabrice; Ribeiro, Ana R; Leite, Paulo Emílio; Groenewold, Monique; Cassee, Flemming R; Sips, Adrienne J A M; Dijkzeul, Aart; van Teunenbroek, Tom; Wijnhoven, Susan W P

    2016-10-01

    In the current paper, a new strategy for risk assessment of nanomaterials is described, which builds upon previous project outcomes and is developed within the FP7 NANoREG project. NANoREG has the aim to develop, for the long term, new testing strategies adapted to a high number of nanomaterials where many factors can affect their environmental and health impact. In the proposed risk assessment strategy, approaches for (Quantitative) Structure Activity Relationships ((Q)SARs), grouping and read-across are integrated and expanded to guide the user how to prioritise those nanomaterial applications that may lead to high risks for human health. Furthermore, those aspects of exposure, kinetics and hazard assessment that are most likely to be influenced by the nanospecific properties of the material under assessment are identified. These aspects are summarised in six elements, which play a key role in the strategy: exposure potential, dissolution, nanomaterial transformation, accumulation, genotoxicity and immunotoxicity. With the current approach it is possible to identify those situations where the use of nanospecific grouping, read-across and (Q)SAR tools is likely to become feasible in the future, and to point towards the generation of the type of data that is needed for scientific justification, which may lead to regulatory acceptance of nanospecific applications of these tools.

  6. Towards a nanospecific approach for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Dekkers, Susan; Oomen, Agnes G; Bleeker, Eric A J; Vandebriel, Rob J; Micheletti, Christian; Cabellos, Joan; Janer, Gemma; Fuentes, Natalia; Vázquez-Campos, Socorro; Borges, Teresa; Silva, Maria João; Prina-Mello, Adriele; Movia, Dania; Nesslany, Fabrice; Ribeiro, Ana R; Leite, Paulo Emílio; Groenewold, Monique; Cassee, Flemming R; Sips, Adrienne J A M; Dijkzeul, Aart; van Teunenbroek, Tom; Wijnhoven, Susan W P

    2016-10-01

    In the current paper, a new strategy for risk assessment of nanomaterials is described, which builds upon previous project outcomes and is developed within the FP7 NANoREG project. NANoREG has the aim to develop, for the long term, new testing strategies adapted to a high number of nanomaterials where many factors can affect their environmental and health impact. In the proposed risk assessment strategy, approaches for (Quantitative) Structure Activity Relationships ((Q)SARs), grouping and read-across are integrated and expanded to guide the user how to prioritise those nanomaterial applications that may lead to high risks for human health. Furthermore, those aspects of exposure, kinetics and hazard assessment that are most likely to be influenced by the nanospecific properties of the material under assessment are identified. These aspects are summarised in six elements, which play a key role in the strategy: exposure potential, dissolution, nanomaterial transformation, accumulation, genotoxicity and immunotoxicity. With the current approach it is possible to identify those situations where the use of nanospecific grouping, read-across and (Q)SAR tools is likely to become feasible in the future, and to point towards the generation of the type of data that is needed for scientific justification, which may lead to regulatory acceptance of nanospecific applications of these tools. PMID:27255696

  7. Nutritional approaches in the risk reduction and management of Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Mi, Weiqian; van Wijk, Nick; Cansev, Mehmet; Sijben, John W C; Kamphuis, Patrick J G H

    2013-09-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a heterogeneous and devastating neurodegenerative disease with increasing socioeconomic burden for society. In the past 30 y, notwithstanding advances in the understanding of the pathogenesis of the disease and consequent development of therapeutic approaches to novel pathogenic targets, no cure has so far emerged. This contribution focuses on recent nutritional approaches in the risk reduction and management of AD with emphasis on factors providing a rationale for nutritional approaches in AD, including compromised nutritional status, altered nutrient uptake and metabolism, and nutrient requirements for synapse formation. Collectively these factors are believed to result in specific nutritional requirement in AD. The chapter also emphasizes investigated nutritional interventions in patients with AD, including studies with single nutrients and with the specific nutrient combination Fortasyn Connect and discusses the current shift of paradigm to intervene in earlier stages of AD, which offers opportunities for investigating nutritional strategies to reduce the risk for disease progression. Fortasyn Connect was designed to enhance synapse formation and function in AD by addressing the putative specific nutritional requirements and contains docosahexaenoic acid, eicosapentaenoic acid, uridine-5'-mono-phosphate, choline, phospholipids, antioxidants, and B vitamins. Two randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with the medical food Souvenaid, containing Fortasyn Connect, showed that this intervention improved memory performance in mild, drug-naïve patients with AD. Electroencephalography outcome in one of these clinical studies suggests that Souvenaid has an effect on brain functional connectivity, which is a derivative of changed synaptic activity. Thus, these studies suggest that nutritional requirements in AD can be successfully addressed and result in improvements in behavioral and neuro-physiological alterations that are characteristic to AD

  8. An adaptive neural swarm approach for intrusion defense in ad hoc networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cannady, James

    2011-06-01

    Wireless sensor networks (WSN) and mobile ad hoc networks (MANET) are being increasingly deployed in critical applications due to the flexibility and extensibility of the technology. While these networks possess numerous advantages over traditional wireless systems in dynamic environments they are still vulnerable to many of the same types of host-based and distributed attacks common to those systems. Unfortunately, the limited power and bandwidth available in WSNs and MANETs, combined with the dynamic connectivity that is a defining characteristic of the technology, makes it extremely difficult to utilize traditional intrusion detection techniques. This paper describes an approach to accurately and efficiently detect potentially damaging activity in WSNs and MANETs. It enables the network as a whole to recognize attacks, anomalies, and potential vulnerabilities in a distributive manner that reflects the autonomic processes of biological systems. Each component of the network recognizes activity in its local environment and then contributes to the overall situational awareness of the entire system. The approach utilizes agent-based swarm intelligence to adaptively identify potential data sources on each node and on adjacent nodes throughout the network. The swarm agents then self-organize into modular neural networks that utilize a reinforcement learning algorithm to identify relevant behavior patterns in the data without supervision. Once the modular neural networks have established interconnectivity both locally and with neighboring nodes the analysis of events within the network can be conducted collectively in real-time. The approach has been shown to be extremely effective in identifying distributed network attacks.

  9. Ad Hoc Query Support For Very Large Simulation Mesh Data: The Metadata Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, B; Snapp, R; Musick, R; Critchlow, T

    2001-12-17

    We present our approach to enabling approximate ad hoc queries on terabyte-scale mesh data generated from large scientific simulations through the extension and integration of database, statistical, and data mining techniques. There are several significant barriers to overcome in achieving this objective. First, large-scale simulation data is already at the multi-terabyte scale and growing quickly, thus rendering traditional forms of interactive data exploration and query processing untenable. Second, a priori knowledge of user queries is not available, making it impossible to tune special-purpose solutions. Third, the data has spatial and temporal aspects, as well as arbitrarily high dimensionality, which exacerbates the task of finding compact, accurate, and easy-to-compute data models. Our approach is to preprocess the mesh data to generate highly compressed, lossy models that are used in lieu of the original data to answer users' queries. This approach leads to interesting challenges. The model (equivalently, the content-oriented metadata) being generated must be smaller than the original data by at least an order of magnitude. Second, the metadata representation must contain enough information to support a broad class of queries. Finally, the accuracy and speed of the queries must be within the tolerances required by users. In this paper we give an overview of ongoing development efforts with an emphasis on extracting metadata and using it in query processing.

  10. Experimental approaches for identifying schizophrenia risk genes.

    PubMed

    Mantripragada, Kiran K; Carroll, Liam S; Williams, Nigel M

    2010-01-01

    Schizophrenia is a severe, debilitating and common psychiatric disorder, which directly affects approximately 1% of the population worldwide. Although previous studies have unequivocally shown that schizophrenia has a strong genetic component, our understanding of its pathophysiology remains limited. The precise genetic architecture of schizophrenia remains elusive and is likely to be complex. It is believed that multiple genetic variants, with each contributing a modest effect on disease risk, interact with environmental factors resulting in the phenotype. In this chapter, we summarise the main molecular genetic approaches that have been utilised in identifying susceptibility genes for schizophrenia and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each approach. First, we detail the findings of linkage mapping in pedigrees (affected families), which analyse the co-segregation of polymorphic genetic markers with disease phenotype. Second, the contribution of targeted and genome-wide association studies, which compare differential allelic frequencies in schizophrenia cases and matched controls, is presented. Third, we discuss about the identification of susceptibility genes through analysis of chromosomal structural variation (gains and losses of genetic material). Lastly, we introduce the concept of re-sequencing, where the entire genome/exome is sequenced both in affected and unaffected individuals. This approach has the potential to provide a clarified picture of the majority of the genetic variation underlying disease pathogenesis. PMID:21312414

  11. Delay-dependent asymptotic stability of mobile ad-hoc networks: A descriptor system approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Juan; Yang, Dan; Huang, Bin; Zhang, Xiao-Hong; Luo, Jian-Lu

    2014-07-01

    In order to analyze the capacity stability of the time-varying-propagation and delay-dependent of mobile ad-hoc networks (MANETs), in this paper, a novel approach is proposed to explore the capacity asymptotic stability for the delay-dependent of MANETs based on non-cooperative game theory, where the delay-dependent conditions are explicitly taken into consideration. This approach is based on the Lyapunov—Krasovskii stability theory for functional differential equations and the linear matrix inequality (LMI) technique. A corresponding Lyapunov—Krasovskii functional is introduced for the stability analysis of this system with use of the descriptor and “neutral-type” model transformation without producing any additional dynamics. The delay-dependent stability criteria are derived for this system. Conditions are given in terms of linear matrix inequalities, and for the first time referred to neutral systems with the time-varying propagation and delay-dependent stability for capacity analysis of MANETs. The proposed criteria are less conservative since they are based on an equivalent model transformation. Furthermore, we also provide an effective and efficient iterative algorithm to solve the constrained stability control model. Simulation experiments have verified the effectiveness and efficiency of our algorithm.

  12. Exercise: An Alternative Approach to the Treatment of AD/HD.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Putnam, Steve; Copans, Stuart A.

    1998-01-01

    Suggests that the increase of Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (AD/HD) cases in America and Canada may be due in part to decreased levels of children's physical activity. Research has shown that exercise helps to lessen the symptoms of AD/HD. Claims that the use of regular exercise programs in school and at home is beneficial for AD/HD…

  13. New Genetic Approaches to AD: Lessons from APOE-TOMM40 Phylogenetics.

    PubMed

    Lutz, Michael W; Crenshaw, Donna; Welsh-Bohmer, Kathleen A; Burns, Daniel K; Roses, Allen D

    2016-05-01

    Clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease are now focusing on the earliest stages of the disease with the goal of delaying dementia onset. There is great utility in using genetic variants to identify individuals at high age-dependent risk when the goal is to begin treatment before the development of any cognitive symptoms. Genetic variants identified through large-scale genome-wide association studies have not substantially improved the accuracy provided by APOE genotype to identify people at high risk of late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD). We describe novel approaches, focused on molecular phylogenetics, to finding genetic variants that predict age at LOAD onset with sufficient accuracy and precision to be useful. We highlight the discovery of a polymorphism in TOMM40 that, in addition to APOE, may improve risk prediction and review how TOMM40 genetic variants may impact the develop of LOAD independently from APOE. The analysis methods described in this review may be useful for other genetically complex human diseases. PMID:27039903

  14. Peer Relationship Problems of Children with AD/HD: Risk Factors and New Directions in Interventions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ozdemir, Selda

    2009-01-01

    This review integrates and evaluates research conducted on possible contributing factors to peer relationship problems of children with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (AD/HD). Substantial evidence suggests that children with AD/HD have serious problems in multiple aspects of their relationships with peers. Difficulties resulting from…

  15. Emergency Situation Prediction Mechanism: A Novel Approach for Intelligent Transportation System Using Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks.

    PubMed

    Ganeshkumar, P; Gokulakrishnan, P

    2015-01-01

    In Indian four-lane express highway, millions of vehicles are travelling every day. Accidents are unfortunate and frequently occurring in these highways causing deaths, increase in death toll, and damage to infrastructure. A mechanism is required to avoid such road accidents at the maximum to reduce the death toll. An Emergency Situation Prediction Mechanism, a novel and proactive approach, is proposed in this paper for achieving the best of Intelligent Transportation System using Vehicular Ad Hoc Network. ESPM intends to predict the possibility of occurrence of an accident in an Indian four-lane express highway. In ESPM, the emergency situation prediction is done by the Road Side Unit based on (i) the Status Report sent by the vehicles in the range of RSU and (ii) the road traffic flow analysis done by the RSU. Once the emergency situation or accident is predicted in advance, an Emergency Warning Message is constructed and disseminated to all vehicles in the area of RSU to alert and prevent the vehicles from accidents. ESPM performs well in emergency situation prediction in advance to the occurrence of an accident. ESPM predicts the emergency situation within 0.20 seconds which is comparatively less than the statistical value. The prediction accuracy of ESPM against vehicle density is found better in different traffic scenarios.

  16. Emergency Situation Prediction Mechanism: A Novel Approach for Intelligent Transportation System Using Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks

    PubMed Central

    Gokulakrishnan, P.

    2015-01-01

    In Indian four-lane express highway, millions of vehicles are travelling every day. Accidents are unfortunate and frequently occurring in these highways causing deaths, increase in death toll, and damage to infrastructure. A mechanism is required to avoid such road accidents at the maximum to reduce the death toll. An Emergency Situation Prediction Mechanism, a novel and proactive approach, is proposed in this paper for achieving the best of Intelligent Transportation System using Vehicular Ad Hoc Network. ESPM intends to predict the possibility of occurrence of an accident in an Indian four-lane express highway. In ESPM, the emergency situation prediction is done by the Road Side Unit based on (i) the Status Report sent by the vehicles in the range of RSU and (ii) the road traffic flow analysis done by the RSU. Once the emergency situation or accident is predicted in advance, an Emergency Warning Message is constructed and disseminated to all vehicles in the area of RSU to alert and prevent the vehicles from accidents. ESPM performs well in emergency situation prediction in advance to the occurrence of an accident. ESPM predicts the emergency situation within 0.20 seconds which is comparatively less than the statistical value. The prediction accuracy of ESPM against vehicle density is found better in different traffic scenarios. PMID:26065014

  17. Mean field game theoretic approach for security in mobile ad-hoc networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yanwei; Tang, Helen; Yu, F. Richard; Huang, Minyi

    2013-05-01

    Game theory can provide a useful tool to study the security problem in mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs). Most existing work on applying game theories to security only considers two players in the security game model: an attacker and a defender. While this assumption is valid for a network with centralized administration, it may not be realistic in MANETs, where centralized administration is not available. Consequently, each individual node in a MANET should be treated separately in the security game model. In this paper, using recent advances in mean field game theory, we propose a novel game theoretic approach for security in MANETs. Mean field game theory provides a powerful mathematical tool for problems with a large number of players. Since security defence mechanisms consume precious system resources (e.g., energy), the proposed scheme considers not only the security requirement of MANETs but also the system resources. In addition, each node only needs to know its own state information and the aggregate effect of the other nodes in the MANET. Therefore, the proposed scheme is a fully distributed scheme. Simulation results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.

  18. Flooding Risk for Coastal Infrastructure: a Stakeholder-Oriented Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plater, A. J.; Prime, T.; Brown, J. M.; Knight, P. J.; Morrissey, K.

    2015-12-01

    A flood risk assessment for coastal energy infrastructure in the UK with respect to long-term sea-level rise and extreme water levels has been conducted using a combination of numerical modelling approaches (LISFLOOD-FP, SWAB, XBeach-G, POLCOMS). Model outputs have been incorporated into a decision-support tool that enables users from a wide spectrum of coastal stakeholders (e.g. nuclear energy, utility providers, local government, environmental regulators, communities) to explore the potential impacts of flooding on both operational (events to 10 years) and strategic (10 to 50 years) timescales. Examples illustrate the physical and economic impacts of flooding from combined extreme water levels, wave overtopping and high river flow for Fleetwood, NW England; changes in the extent of likely flooding arising from an extreme event due to sea-level rise for Oldbury, SW England; and the relative vulnerability to overtopping and breaching of sea defences for Dungeness, SE England. The impacts of a potential large-scale beach recharge scheme to mitigate coastal erosion and flood risk along the southern shoreline of Dungeness are also examined using a combination of coastal evolution and particle-tracking modelling. The research goal is to provide an evidence base for resource allocation, investment in interventions, and communication and dialogue in relation to sea-level rise to 2500 AD.

  19. A Validity Argument Approach to Evaluating Teacher Value-Added Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hill, Heather C.; Kapitula, Laura; Umland, Kristin

    2011-01-01

    Value-added models have become popular in research and pay-for-performance plans. While scholars have focused attention on some aspects of their validity (e.g., scoring procedures), others have received less scrutiny. This article focuses on the extent to which value-added scores correspond to other indicators of teacher and teaching quality. The…

  20. An Integrated Approach to Risk Assessment for Concurrent Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila; Voss, Luke; Feather, Martin; Cornford, Steve

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes an approach to risk assessment and analysis suited to the early phase, concurrent design of a space mission. The approach integrates an agile, multi-user risk collection tool, a more in-depth risk analysis tool, and repositories of risk information. A JPL developed tool, named RAP, is used for collecting expert opinions about risk from designers involved in the concurrent design of a space mission. Another in-house developed risk assessment tool, named DDP, is used for the analysis.

  1. Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Approach to Enterprise Risk Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauder, Stephen P.

    2014-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Division has implemented an innovative approach to Enterprise Risk Management under a unique governance structure and streamlined integration model. ESD's mission is to design and build the capability to extend human existence to deep space. The Enterprise consists of three Programs: Space Launch System (SLS), Orion, and Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). The SLS is a rocket and launch system that will be capable of powering humans, habitats, and support systems to deep space. Orion will be the first spacecraft in history capable of taking humans to multiple destinations within deep space. GSDO is modernizing Kennedy's spaceport to launch spacecraft built and designed by both NASA and private industry. ESD's approach to Enterprise Risk Management is commensurate with affordability and a streamlined management philosophy. ESD Enterprise Risk Management leverages off of the primary mechanisms for integration within the Enterprise. The Enterprise integration approach emphasizes delegation of authority to manage and execute the majority of cross-program activities and products to the individual Programs, while maintaining the overall responsibility for all cross-program activities at the Division. The intent of the ESD Enterprise Risk Management approach is to improve risk communication, to avoid replication and/or contradictory strategies, and to minimize overhead process burden. This is accomplished by the facilitation and integration of risk information within ESD. The ESD Division risks, Orion risks, SLS risks, and GSDO risks are owned and managed by the applicable Program. When the Programs have shared risks with multiple consequences, they are jointly owned and managed. When a risk is associated with the integrated system that involves more than one Program in condition, consequence, or mitigation plan, it is considered an Exploration Systems Integration

  2. Towards actionable risk stratification: a bilinear approach.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xiang; Wang, Fei; Hu, Jianying; Sorrentino, Robert

    2015-02-01

    Risk stratification is instrumental to modern clinical decision support systems. Comprehensive risk stratification should be able to provide the clinicians with not only the accurate assessment of a patient's risk but also the clinical context to be acted upon. However, existing risk stratification techniques mainly focus on predicting the risk score for individual patients; at the cohort level, they offer little insight beyond a flat score-based segmentation. This essentially reduces a patient to a score and thus removes him/her from his/her clinical context. To address this limitation, in this paper we propose a bilinear model for risk stratification that simultaneously captures the three key aspects of risk stratification: (1) it predicts the risk of each individual patient; (2) it stratifies the patient cohort based on not only the risk score but also the clinical characteristics; and (3) it embeds all patients into clinical contexts with clear interpretation. We apply our model to a cohort of 4977 patients, 1127 among which were diagnosed with Congestive Heart Failure (CHF). We demonstrate that our model cannot only accurately predict the onset risk of CHF but also provide rich and actionable clinical insights into the patient cohort.

  3. Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

    PubMed

    Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

    2014-12-01

    Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants.

  4. Load Carriage: An Integrated Risk Management Approach.

    PubMed

    Orr, Robin M; Pope, Rodney R

    2015-11-01

    Military load carriage (LC) gives rise to substantial risks to soldier health, tactical performance, and mission success. The aim of this article was to extract and synthesize the key findings of a series of LC research reports previously published by the authors. Five reviews and 6 studies were included, with key findings extracted and synthesized in tabulated and critical narrative form. The weight of a soldier's load is a source of risk for soldier's injuries and tactical task performance. The resulting level of risk is influenced by risk modifiers (like speed of march, terrain grade, and task type and duration) and risk controls (like administrative controls and physical conditioning). In the Australian context, these risk controls were limited, with soldiers carrying heavier loads than those mandated by doctrine and policy, and LC conditioning not meeting best practice. The diversity of LC contexts, combined with the influence of risk modifiers and risk controls, means that levels of risk associated with LC are not consistent and must be assessed on a case-by-case basis. Load weight and marching routes (terrains, gradients), distances, speed, and duration are all potentially treatable sources of LC-related risk. Potential risk treatments include not only commanders directly addressing these specific sources of risk to the extent feasible, on a case-by-case basis, when planning or conducting LC tasks but also improving administration controls (i.e., doctrine and policies) and personal protection (i.e., the physical conditioning of the soldier) as part of the hierarchy of controls. Practical application would involve commanders developing and implementing dedicated LC doctrine and policies and implementing and enforcing LC conditioning programs that meets best practice. PMID:26506174

  5. Fuzzy inference systems, ASKE, knowledge value added, and Monte Carlo risk simulation for evaluating intangible human capital investments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mun, Johnathan; de Albuquerque, Nelson R.; Liong, Choong-Yeun; Salleh, Abdul Razak

    2013-04-01

    This paper presents the ASKE-Risk method, coupled with Fuzzy Inference Systems, and Monte Carlo Risk Simulation to measure and prioritize Individual Technical Competence of a value chain to assess changes in the human capital of a company. ASKE is an extension of the method Knowledge Value Added, which proposes the use of a proxy variable for measuring the flow of knowledge used in a key process, creating a relationship between the company's financial results and the resources used in each of the business processes.

  6. Determinants of Food Safety Risks: A Multi-disciplinary Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knight, Andrew; Warland, Rex

    2005-01-01

    This research employs a multi-disciplinary approach by developing a model that draws upon psychometric, cultural, and reflexive modernization perspectives of risk perception. Using data from a 1999 national telephone survey, we tested our model on three food risks ? pesticides, Salmonella, and fat. Results showed that perceptions of risks do vary…

  7. SMALL POPULATIONS REQUIRE SPECIFIC MODELING APPROACHES FOR ASSESSING RISK

    EPA Science Inventory

    All populations face non-zero risks of extinction. However, the risks for small populations, and therefore the modeling approaches necessary to predict them, are different from those of large populations. These differences are currently hindering assessment of risk to small pop...

  8. INDICATORS OF RISK: AN ANALYSIS APPROACH FOR IMPROVED RIVER MANAGEMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A risk index is an approach to measuring the level of risk to the plants and/or animals (biota) in a certain area using water and habitat quality information. A new technique for developing risk indices was applied to data collected from Mid-Atlantic streams of the U.S. during 1...

  9. Risk analysis approach. [of carbon fiber release

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huston, R. J.

    1979-01-01

    The assessment of the carbon fiber hazard is outlined. Program objectives, requirements of the risk analysis, and elements associated with the physical phenomena of the accidental release are described.

  10. Multicasting in Wireless Communications (Ad-Hoc Networks): Comparison against a Tree-Based Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rizos, G. E.; Vasiliadis, D. C.

    2007-12-01

    We examine on-demand multicasting in ad hoc networks. The Core Assisted Mesh Protocol (CAMP) is a well-known protocol for multicast routing in ad-hoc networks, generalizing the notion of core-based trees employed for internet multicasting into multicast meshes that have much richer connectivity than trees. On the other hand, wireless tree-based multicast routing protocols use much simpler structures for determining route paths, using only parent-child relationships. In this work, we compare the performance of the CAMP protocol against the performance of wireless tree-based multicast routing protocols, in terms of two important factors, namely packet delay and ratio of dropped packets.

  11. Use of risk quotient and probabilistic approaches to assess risks of pesticides to birds

    EPA Science Inventory

    When conducting ecological risk assessments for pesticides, the United States Environmental Protection Agency typically relies upon the risk quotient (RQ). This approach is intended to be conservative in nature, making assumptions related to exposure and effects that are intended...

  12. Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

    PubMed

    Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

    2016-02-01

    Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth.

  13. Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

    PubMed

    Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

    2016-02-01

    Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth. PMID:26215051

  14. Using a Value-Added Approach to Assess the Sociology Major

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pedersen, Daphne E.; White, Frank

    2011-01-01

    Universities across the nation have been called upon to provide evidence of student learning through direct means of assessment. Value-added assessment, which aims to document the development of student learning from the beginning of the university experience to the end, has been called "accountability's new frontier" by the American Association…

  15. Risk evaluation: A cost-oriented approach

    SciTech Connect

    Rogers, B.H.

    1998-02-03

    This method provides a structured and cost-oriented way to determine risks associated with loss and destruction of industrial security interests consisting of material assets and human resources. Loss and destruction are assumed to be adversary perpetrated, high-impact events in which the health and safety of people or high-value property is at risk. This concept provides a process for: (1) assessing effectiveness of all integrated protection system, which includes facility operations, safety, emergency and security systems, and (2) a qualitative prioritization scheme to determine the level of consequence relative to cost and subsequent risk. The method allows managers the flexibility to establish asset protection appropriate to programmatic requirements and priorities and to decide if funding is appropriate. The evaluation objectives are to: (1) provide for a systematic, qualitative tabletop process to estimate the potential for an undesirable event and its impact; and (2) identify ineffective protection and cost-effective solutions.

  16. Families at risk: comment on Dirkzwager, Bramsen, Adèr, and van der Ploeg (2005).

    PubMed

    Fairbank, John A; Fairbank, Doreen W

    2005-06-01

    New findings from a study by A. J. E. Dirkzwager, I. Bramsen, H. Adèr, and H. M. van der Ploeg (2005; see record 2005-06518-006) provide important empirical information on the adverse psychological and functional adjustment of families of former Dutch peacekeepers suffering from posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). In this comment the authors consider a few methodological limitations and issues for future study, including the need for intergenerational studies of the legacy of peacekeeping-related PTSD. Attention to considering the treatment needs of families of traumatized former peacekeepers is encouraged. PMID:15982099

  17. Spontaneous subdural hematoma and antiplatelet therapy: Does efficacy of Ticagrelor come with added risk?

    PubMed

    Suryanarayana Sharma, Pattanagere Manjunatha; Tekkatte Jagannatha, Aniruddha; Javali, Mahendra; Hegde, Anupama Venkatasubba; Mahale, Rohan; Madhusudhan; Srinivasa, Rangasetty

    2015-12-01

    Antiplatelet therapy has established clinical benefit on cardiovascular outcome and has reduced the rates of re-infarction/in stent thrombosis following percutaneous coronary intervention in acute coronary syndromes. Major bleeding episodes can occur with antiplatelet therapy and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) is one of the most feared complications resulting in significant morbidity and mortality. Identification of high risk groups and judicious use of antiplatelet therapy reduces the bleeding risk. Ticagrelor is a newer P2Y12 receptor antagonist with established clinical benefit. However, risks of having an ICH with these newer molecules cannot be ignored. Here, we report a case of spontaneous acute subdural hematoma developing in a patient on antiplatelet therapy with aspirin and ticagrelor. Early recognition, discontinuation of the medication and appropriate management resulted in resolution of hematoma and good clinical outcome. Authors have reviewed the antithrombotic drugs and their tendencies in causing intracranial bleeds from a neurophysicians perspective. PMID:26995425

  18. Chemical Mixtures: Cancer Risk Assessment Approaches

    EPA Science Inventory

    Presentation will describe how EPA uses linear and nonlinear methods to derive cancer slope factors and reference doses,respectively, for single carcinogens, as described in EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment. Then, the presentation will show how these toxicity ...

  19. Reducing Adolescent Risk: Toward an Integrated Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Romer, David, Ed.

    This collection of papers focuses on common influences that result in a number of interrelated risk behaviors, summarizing presentations and discussions from a recent conference at which a group of specialists from different health traditions synthesized current knowledge on the subject. There are 39 papers in four parts. Part 1, "Adolescents as…

  20. Risk Pools: State Approaches. inForum

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Muller, Eve

    2006-01-01

    Historically, many state education agencies (SEAs) have formally or informally used risk pools to provide extra funds to local education agencies (LEAs) serving students with high cost special education needs. With the 2004 reauthorization of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA), SEAs have been encouraged to formalize their…

  1. Enhancements for distributed certificate authority approaches for mobile wireless ad hoc networks.

    SciTech Connect

    Van Leeuwen, Brian P.; Michalski, John T.; Anderson, William Erik

    2003-12-01

    Mobile wireless ad hoc networks that are resistant to adversarial manipulation are necessary for distributed systems used in military and security applications. Critical to the successful operation of these networks, which operate in the presence of adversarial stressors, are robust and efficient information assurance methods. In this report we describe necessary enhancements for a distributed certificate authority (CA) used in secure wireless network architectures. Necessary cryptographic algorithms used in distributed CAs are described and implementation enhancements of these algorithms in mobile wireless ad hoc networks are developed. The enhancements support a network's ability to detect compromised nodes and facilitate distributed CA services. We provide insights to the impacts the enhancements will have on network performance with timing diagrams and preliminary network simulation studies.

  2. An artificial immune system approach with secondary response for misbehavior detection in mobile ad hoc networks.

    PubMed

    Sarafijanović, Slavisa; Le Boudec, Jean-Yves

    2005-09-01

    In mobile ad hoc networks, nodes act both as terminals and information relays, and they participate in a common routing protocol, such as dynamic source routing (DSR). The network is vulnerable to routing misbehavior, due to faulty or malicious nodes. Misbehavior detection systems aim at removing this vulnerability. In this paper, we investigate the use of an artificial immune system (AIS) to detect node misbehavior in a mobile ad hoc network using DSR. The system is inspired by the natural immune system (IS) of vertebrates. Our goal is to build a system that, like its natural counterpart, automatically learns, and detects new misbehavior. We describe our solution for the classification task of the AIS; it employs negative selection and clonal selection, the algorithms for learning and adaptation used by the natural IS. We define how we map the natural IS concepts such as self, antigen, and antibody to a mobile ad hoc network and give the resulting algorithm for classifying nodes as misbehaving. We implemented the system in the network simulator Glomosim; we present detection results and discuss how the system parameters affect the performance of primary and secondary response. Further steps will extend the design by using an analogy to the innate system, danger signal, and memory cells.

  3. Factor V Leiden mutation: An added risk in single ventricle palliation

    PubMed Central

    Saileela, R; Shanthi, C; Agarwal, Ravi; Subramanyan, Raghavan; Cherian, KM

    2012-01-01

    We present the case report of a child with Factor V Leiden mutation who underwent Fontan procedure. Thromboembolism is a widely recognized complication of the Fontan procedure and its modifications. Factor V Leiden mutation, being a hypercoagulable state, posed a higher risk for thromboembolism in this child. Appropriate measures taken before and after surgery prevented postoperative coagulopathy. PMID:23129917

  4. A predictive Bayesian approach to risk analysis in health care

    PubMed Central

    Aven, Terje; Eidesen, Karianne

    2007-01-01

    Background The Bayesian approach is now widely recognised as a proper framework for analysing risk in health care. However, the traditional text-book Bayesian approach is in many cases difficult to implement, as it is based on abstract concepts and modelling. Methods The essential points of the risk analyses conducted according to the predictive Bayesian approach are identification of observable quantities, prediction and uncertainty assessments of these quantities, using all the relevant information. The risk analysis summarizes the knowledge and lack of knowledge concerning critical operations and other activities, and give in this way a basis for making rational decisions. Results It is shown that Bayesian risk analysis can be significantly simplified and made more accessible compared to the traditional text-book Bayesian approach by focusing on predictions of observable quantities and performing uncertainty assessments of these quantities using subjective probabilities. Conclusion The predictive Bayesian approach provides a framework for ensuring quality of risk analysis. The approach acknowledges that risk cannot be adequately described and evaluated simply by reference to summarising probabilities. Risk is defined by the combination of possible consequences and associated uncertainties. PMID:17714597

  5. Enhancing Students' Approaches to Learning: The Added Value of Gradually Implementing Case-Based Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baeten, Marlies; Dochy, Filip; Struyven, Katrien

    2013-01-01

    Previous research has shown the difficulty of enhancing students' approaches to learning, in particular the deep approach, through student-centred teaching methods such as problem- and case-based learning. This study investigates whether mixed instructional methods combining case-based learning and lectures have the power to enhance students'…

  6. A non-Gaussian approach to risk measures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bormetti, Giacomo; Cisana, Enrica; Montagna, Guido; Nicrosini, Oreste

    2007-03-01

    Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modelling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student- t distribution. Non-Gaussian closed-form solutions for value-at-risk and expected shortfall are obtained and standard formulae known in the literature under the normality assumption are recovered as a special case. The implications of the approach for risk management are demonstrated through an empirical analysis of financial time series from the Italian stock market and in comparison with the results of the most widely used procedures of quantitative finance. Particular attention is paid to quantify the size of the errors affecting the market risk measures obtained according to different methodologies, by employing a bootstrap technique.

  7. A random matrix approach to credit risk.

    PubMed

    Münnix, Michael C; Schäfer, Rudi; Guhr, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    We estimate generic statistical properties of a structural credit risk model by considering an ensemble of correlation matrices. This ensemble is set up by Random Matrix Theory. We demonstrate analytically that the presence of correlations severely limits the effect of diversification in a credit portfolio if the correlations are not identically zero. The existence of correlations alters the tails of the loss distribution considerably, even if their average is zero. Under the assumption of randomly fluctuating correlations, a lower bound for the estimation of the loss distribution is provided.

  8. A Random Matrix Approach to Credit Risk

    PubMed Central

    Guhr, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    We estimate generic statistical properties of a structural credit risk model by considering an ensemble of correlation matrices. This ensemble is set up by Random Matrix Theory. We demonstrate analytically that the presence of correlations severely limits the effect of diversification in a credit portfolio if the correlations are not identically zero. The existence of correlations alters the tails of the loss distribution considerably, even if their average is zero. Under the assumption of randomly fluctuating correlations, a lower bound for the estimation of the loss distribution is provided. PMID:24853864

  9. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  10. Incremental predictive value of adding past blood pressure measurements to the Framingham hypertension risk equation: the Whitehall II Study.

    PubMed

    Kivimäki, Mika; Tabak, Adam G; Batty, G David; Ferrie, Jane E; Nabi, Hermann; Marmot, Michael G; Witte, Daniel R; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Shipley, Martin J

    2010-04-01

    Records of repeated examinations of blood pressure are increasingly available for primary care patients, but the use of this information in predicting incident hypertension remains unclear, because cohort studies with repeat blood pressure monitoring are rare. We compared the incremental value of using data on blood pressure history to a single measure as in the Framingham hypertension risk score, a validated hypertension risk prediction algorithm. Participants were 4314 London-based civil servants (1297 women) aged 35 to 68 years who were free from prevalent hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and coronary heart disease at baseline examination (the Whitehall II Study). Standard clinical examinations of blood pressure, weight and height, current cigarette smoking, and parental history of hypertension were undertaken on a 5-year basis. A total of 1052 incident (new-onset) cases of hypertension were observed in two 5-year baseline follow-up data cycles. Comparison of the Framingham risk score with a score additionally incorporating 5-year blood pressure history showed, at best, modest improvements in indicators of predictive performance: C statistics (0.796 versus 0.799), predicted:observed ratios (1.04 [95% CI: 0.95 to 1.15] versus 0.98 [95% CI: 0.89 to 1.08]), or Hosmer-Lemeshow chi(2) values (11.5 versus 6.5). The net reclassification improvement with the modified score was 9.3% (95% CI: 4.2% to 14.4%), resulting from a net 17.1% increase in nonhypertensives correctly identified as being at lower risk but a net 7.8% increase in hypertensives incorrectly identified as at lower risk. These data suggest that, despite the net reclassification improvement, the clinical use of adding repeat measures of blood pressure to the Framingham hypertension risk score may be limited.

  11. A likelihood approach to calculating risk support intervals

    SciTech Connect

    Leal, S.M.; Ott, J. )

    1994-05-01

    Genetic risks are usually computed under the assumption that genetic parameters, such as the recombination fraction, are known without error. Uncertainty in the estimates of these parameters must translate into uncertainty regarding the risk. To allow for uncertainties in parameter values, one may employ Bayesian techniques or, in a maximum-likelihood framework, construct a support interval (SI) for the risk. Here the authors have implemented the latter approach. The SI for the risk is based on the SIs of parameters involved in the pedigree likelihood. As an empirical example, the SI for the risk was calculated for probands who are members of chronic spinal muscular atrophy kindreds. In order to evaluate the accuracy of a risk in genetic counseling situations, the authors advocate that, in addition to a point estimate, an SI for the risk should be calculated. 16 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  12. Hereditary cancer risk assessment: essential tools for a better approach

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Hereditary cancer risk assessment (HCRA) is a multidisciplinary process of estimating probabilities of germline mutations in cancer susceptibility genes and assessing empiric risks of cancer, based on personal and family history. It includes genetic counseling, testing and management of at-risk individuals so that they can make well-informed choices about cancer surveillance, surgical treatment and chemopreventive measures, including biomolecular cancer therapies. Providing patients and family members with an appropriate HCRA will contribute to a better process of making decisions about their personal and family risks of cancer. Following individuals at high risk through screening protocols, reassuring those at low risk, and referring those at increased risk of hereditary cancer to a cancer genetics center may be the best suitable approach of HCRA. PMID:24165150

  13. A reclamation approach for mined prime farmland by adding organic wastes and lime to the subsoil

    SciTech Connect

    Zhai, Qiang; Barnhisel, R.I.

    1996-12-31

    Surface mined prime farmland may be reclaimed by adding organic wastes and lime to subsoil thus improving conditions in root zone. In this study, sewage sludge, poultry manure, horse bedding, and lime were applied to subsoil (15-30 cm) during reclamation. Soil properties and plant growth were measured over two years. All organic amendments tended to lower the subsoil bulk density and increase organic matter and total nitrogen. Liming raised exchangeable calcium, slightly increased pH, but decreased exchangeable magnesium and potassium. Corn ear-leaf and forage tissue nitrogen, yields, and nitrogen removal increased in treatments amended with sewage sludge and poultry manure, but not horse bedding. Subsoil application of sewage sludge or poultry manure seems like a promising method in the reclamation of surface mined prime farmland based on the improvements observed in the root zone environment.

  14. Bacillus aryabhattai BA03: a novel approach to the production of natural value-added compounds.

    PubMed

    Paz, Alicia; Carballo, Julia; Pérez, María José; Domínguez, José Manuel

    2016-10-01

    A strain designated as BA03, with the ability to transform ferulic acid into vanillin and 4-vinylguaiacol, was isolated from contaminated cryovials. The production of natural value-added compounds was dependent on the media employed. The morphological and physiological characteristics of this strain were compared with those of the typical vanillin-producer strain Amycolatopsis sp. ATCC 39116. According to a partial 16S rRNA sequence, we determined that BA03 belonged to Bacillus aryabhattai. In addition, analysis of the results showed that this strain exhibited interesting enzymatic activity, including cellulases, laccases, lipases and pectinases. In light of this, we propose new functions for this multitasking microorganism. We suggest that it may be used for converting lignocellulosic wastes into byproducts with industrial uses, and also for treating disposal residues such as dyes in the textile industry. Hence, the possibility for novel research with B. aryabhattai opens up in the fields of biodegradation and/or revalorization of wastes.

  15. Using Surveillance of Mental Health to Increase Understanding of Youth Involvement in High-Risk Behaviors: A Value-Added Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dowdy, Erin; Furlong, Michael J.; Sharkey, Jill D.

    2013-01-01

    This study examined the potential utility of adding items that assessed youths' emotional and behavioral disorders to a commonly used surveillance survey. The goal was to evaluate whether the added items could enhance understanding of youths' involvement in high-risk behaviors. A sample of 3,331 adolescents in Grades 8, 10, and 12 from four…

  16. Towards a harmonized approach for risk assessment of genotoxic carcinogens in the European Union.

    PubMed

    Crebelli, Riccardo

    2006-01-01

    The EU Scientific Committees have considered in the past the use of matematical models for human cancer risk estimation not adequately supported by the available scientific knowledge. Therefore, the advice given to risk managers was to reduce the exposure as far as possible, following the as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA) principle. However, ALARA does not allow to set priorities for risk management, as it does not take into consideration carcinogenic potency and level of human exposure. For this reason the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has identified as a priority task the development of a transparent, scientically justifiable and harmonized approach for risk assessment of genotoxic carcinogens. This approach, proposed at the end of 2005, is based on the definition of the (MOE), i.e. the relationship between a given point of the dose reponse curve in the animal and human exposure. As point of comparison EFSA recommends the BMDL10, i.e. the lower limit of the confidence interval of the Benchmark Dose associated with an incidence of 10% of induced tumors. Based on current scientific knowkedge, EFSA concluded that a MOE of 10000 or greater is associated with a low risk and low priority for risk management actions. The approach proposed does not replace the ALARA. It should find application on food contaminants, process by-product, and other substances unintentionally present in food. On the other hand, it is not intended to provide a tool for the definition of tolerable intake levels for genotoxic carcinogens deliberately added to food.

  17. Proactive Approaches to Improving Outcomes for At-Risk Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Freeman, G.; Gum, M.; Blackbourn, J. M.

    This paper outlines two approaches for improving outcomes for students at risk for academic failure. Both take a systemic approach to the problem by focusing on how specific circumstances create a reality of failure for many students. One school analyzed factors related to retention/promotion decisions and determined that four factors directly…

  18. A phased approach to induced seismicity risk management

    DOE PAGES

    White, Joshua A.; Foxall, William

    2014-01-01

    This work describes strategies for assessing and managing induced seismicity risk during each phase of a carbon storage project. We consider both nuisance and damage potential from induced earthquakes, as well as the indirect risk of enhancing fault leakage pathways. A phased approach to seismicity management is proposed, in which operations are continuously adapted based on available information and an on-going estimate of risk. At each project stage, specific recommendations are made for (a) monitoring and characterization, (b) modeling and analysis, and (c) site operations. The resulting methodology can help lower seismic risk while ensuring site operations remain practical andmore » cost-effective.« less

  19. A phased approach to induced seismicity risk management

    SciTech Connect

    White, Joshua A.; Foxall, William

    2014-01-01

    This work describes strategies for assessing and managing induced seismicity risk during each phase of a carbon storage project. We consider both nuisance and damage potential from induced earthquakes, as well as the indirect risk of enhancing fault leakage pathways. A phased approach to seismicity management is proposed, in which operations are continuously adapted based on available information and an on-going estimate of risk. At each project stage, specific recommendations are made for (a) monitoring and characterization, (b) modeling and analysis, and (c) site operations. The resulting methodology can help lower seismic risk while ensuring site operations remain practical and cost-effective.

  20. A Bayesian Networks approach to Operational Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aquaro, V.; Bardoscia, M.; Bellotti, R.; Consiglio, A.; De Carlo, F.; Ferri, G.

    2010-04-01

    A system for Operational Risk management based on the computational paradigm of Bayesian Networks is presented. The algorithm allows the construction of a Bayesian Network targeted for each bank and takes into account in a simple and realistic way the correlations among different processes of the bank. The internal losses are averaged over a variable time horizon, so that the correlations at different times are removed, while the correlations at the same time are kept: the averaged losses are thus suitable to perform the learning of the network topology and parameters; since the main aim is to understand the role of the correlations among the losses, the assessments of domain experts are not used. The algorithm has been validated on synthetic time series. It should be stressed that the proposed algorithm has been thought for the practical implementation in a mid or small sized bank, since it has a small impact on the organizational structure of a bank and requires an investment in human resources which is limited to the computational area.

  1. To Learn More about Learning: The Value-Added Role of Qualitative Approaches to Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Newhart, Daniel W.

    2015-01-01

    As we face increasing accountability in higher education, how we measure student learning should exceed the calls for an account of learning that places students at the center. Qualitative approaches to assessment and theoretical underpinnings gleaned from the qualitative research tradition may provide a way that we can support a more holistic…

  2. A Preliminary Approach to Adding Indicators of Ecosystem Service Benefits to a Wetlands Functional Assessment Tool

    EPA Science Inventory

    State-level managers and restoration advocates have expressed a desire for approaches that address wetlands services and benefits for two purposes: to demonstrate the benefits of money budgeted for restoration, and to compare proposals when awarding restoration funds for specific...

  3. Prevention of accidental exposure in radiotherapy: the risk matrix approach.

    PubMed

    Vilaragut, J J; Duménigo, C; Delgado, J M; Morales, J; McDonnell, J D; Ferro, R; Ortiz López, P; Ramírez, M L; Pérez Mulas, A; Papadopulos, S; Gonçalves, M; López Morones, R; Sánchez Cayuela, C; Cascajo Castresana, A; Somoano, F; Álvarez, C; Guillén, A; Rodríguez, M; Pereira, P P; Nader, A

    2013-02-01

    Knowledge and lessons from past accidental exposures in radiotherapy are very helpful in finding safety provisions to prevent recurrence. Disseminating lessons is necessary but not sufficient. There may be additional latent risks for other accidental exposures, which have not been reported or have not occurred, but are possible and may occur in the future if not identified, analyzed, and prevented by safety provisions. Proactive methods are available for anticipating and quantifying risk from potential event sequences. In this work, proactive methods, successfully used in industry, have been adapted and used in radiotherapy. Risk matrix is a tool that can be used in individual hospitals to classify event sequences in levels of risk. As with any anticipative method, the risk matrix involves a systematic search for potential risks; that is, any situation that can cause an accidental exposure. The method contributes new insights: The application of the risk matrix approach has identified that another group of less catastrophic but still severe single-patient events may have a higher probability, resulting in higher risk. The use of the risk matrix approach for safety assessment in individual hospitals would provide an opportunity for self-evaluation and managing the safety measures that are most suitable to the hospital's own conditions. PMID:23274816

  4. Bacillus aryabhattai BA03: a novel approach to the production of natural value-added compounds.

    PubMed

    Paz, Alicia; Carballo, Julia; Pérez, María José; Domínguez, José Manuel

    2016-10-01

    A strain designated as BA03, with the ability to transform ferulic acid into vanillin and 4-vinylguaiacol, was isolated from contaminated cryovials. The production of natural value-added compounds was dependent on the media employed. The morphological and physiological characteristics of this strain were compared with those of the typical vanillin-producer strain Amycolatopsis sp. ATCC 39116. According to a partial 16S rRNA sequence, we determined that BA03 belonged to Bacillus aryabhattai. In addition, analysis of the results showed that this strain exhibited interesting enzymatic activity, including cellulases, laccases, lipases and pectinases. In light of this, we propose new functions for this multitasking microorganism. We suggest that it may be used for converting lignocellulosic wastes into byproducts with industrial uses, and also for treating disposal residues such as dyes in the textile industry. Hence, the possibility for novel research with B. aryabhattai opens up in the fields of biodegradation and/or revalorization of wastes. PMID:27562593

  5. Approaches for Assessing Risks to Sensitive Populations: Lessons Learned from Evaluating Risks in the Pediatric Population

    PubMed Central

    Hines, Ronald N.; Sargent, Dana; Autrup, Herman; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Brent, Robert L.; Doerrer, Nancy G.; Cohen Hubal, Elaine A.; Juberg, Daland R.; Laurent, Christian; Luebke, Robert; Olejniczak, Klaus; Portier, Christopher J.; Slikker, William

    2010-01-01

    Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a “tool chest” of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of the pediatric population. The Health and Environmental Sciences Institute Subcommittee on Risk Assessment of Sensitive Populations evaluated key references in the area of pediatric risk to identify a spectrum of methodological approaches. These approaches are considered in this article for their potential to be extrapolated for the identification and assessment of other sensitive populations. Recommendations as to future research needs and/or alternate methodological considerations are also made. PMID:19770482

  6. Territory management an appropriate approach for taking into account dynamic risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandez, M.; Ruegg, J.

    2012-04-01

    The territorial approach in risk analysis is well established in scientific communications in recent years, especially in the francophone literature. It is an especially appropriate approach for exploring a large number of criteria and factors influencing, on the territory, the composition of the vulnerabilities and risks. In these sense, this approach is appropriate to identify not only risks due to natural hazards but also social and environmental risks. Our case study explores the catastrophic landslide, a collapse of 6 millions cubic meters of rock in Los Chorros, in the municipality of San Cristobal Verapaz-Guatemala, in January 2009. We demonstrate that the same natural hazard has different consequences within this territory and may also increase or even create new vulnerabilities and risks for the population. The analysis shows that the same event can endanger various aspects of the territory: resources, functions (agriculture, or houses uses for example) and allocations and highlights the different types of vulnerabilities that land users (i.e., farmers, merchants transport drivers) face. To resolve a post-disaster situation, the actors choose one vulnerability among a set of vulnerabilities (in a multi-vulnerability context) and with this choice they define their own acceptable risk limits. To give an example, the transport driver choose to reduce the economic vulnerability when going to the local market and crossing the landslide (physical vulnerability). In the context of a developing country with weak development and limited resources, land users that become the Risk managers after the disaster are compelled to prioritize between different actions for reducing risks This study provides a novel approach to risk management by adding a political science and geography dimension through the territory approach for improving our understanding of multi-hazard and multi-risk management. Based on findings from this case study, this work asserts that risk is not

  7. An innovative approach of risk planning for space programs.

    PubMed

    Ray, P

    2000-07-01

    According to the current rule-based risk management approach at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the effort is directed to contain all identified risks of a program. The identification of hazards and mitigation effort proceeds along with the development of the system hardware, till all the tradable resources for a program is exhausted. In this process, no conscious effort is made to evaluate risks and associated cost, and the final design is likely to have undesirable residual risks. This approach also results in allocating a significant amount of resources to gain only marginal mitigation of hazard and leave some undesirable hazards in the system due to the budget limitation. The approach in the proposed knowledge-based risk planning system makes a conscious attempt to trade risk with other resources, e.g., schedule, cost, reliability, performance, and others in a judicious and cost-effective way. A knowledge of the feasible option sets requiring high incremental cost for a marginal gain in hazard reduction helps the management to make decision for residual risk that falls within an acceptable range for an option set.

  8. Impact of rare earth element added filters on the X-ray beam spectra: a Monte Carlo approach.

    PubMed

    Eskandarlou, Amir; Jafari, Amir Abbas; Mohammadi, Mohammad; Zehtabian, Mehdi; Faghihi, Reza; Shokri, Abbas; Pourolajal, Jalal

    2014-01-01

    The effectiveness of added filters including conventional and rare earth materials for dental radiography tasks was investigated using a simulation approach. Current study focuses on the combination of a range of various filters to investigate the reduction of radiation absorbed dose and improving the quality of a radiography image. To simulate the X-ray beam spectrum, a MCNP5 code was applied. Relative intensity, beam quality, and mean energy were investigated for a typical dental radiography machine. The impact of different rare-earth materials with different thicknesses and tube voltages on the X-ray spectrum was investigated. For Aluminum as a conventional filter, the modeled X-ray spectra and HVL values were in a good agreement with those reported by IPEM. The results showed that for a 70 kVp voltage, with an increase of the thickness and atomic number of a given added filters, an increase of HVL values were observed. However, with the increase of the attenuator thickness, X-ray beam intensity decreases. For mean energy, different results were observed. It was also found that rare earth made filters reduce high energy X-ray radiation due to k-edge absorption. This leads to an ideal beam for intra-oral radiography tasks. However, as a disadvantage of rare earth added filters, the reduction of the tube output levels should also be considered.

  9. Robust Decision Making Approach to Managing Water Resource Risks (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lempert, R.

    2010-12-01

    The IPCC and US National Academies of Science have recommended iterative risk management as the best approach for water management and many other types of climate-related decisions. Such an approach does not rely on a single set of judgments at any one time but rather actively updates and refines strategies as new information emerges. In addition, the approach emphasizes that a portfolio of different types of responses, rather than any single action, often provides the best means to manage uncertainty. Implementing an iterative risk management approach can however prove difficult in actual decision support applications. This talk will suggest that robust decision making (RDM) provides a particularly useful set of quantitative methods for implementing iterative risk management. This RDM approach is currently being used in a wide variety of water management applications. RDM employs three key concepts that differentiate it from most types of probabilistic risk analysis: 1) characterizing uncertainty with multiple views of the future (which can include sets of probability distributions) rather than a single probabilistic best-estimate, 2) employing a robustness rather than an optimality criterion to assess alternative policies, and 3) organizing the analysis with a vulnerability and response option framework, rather than a predict-then-act framework. This talk will summarize the RDM approach, describe its use in several different types of water management applications, and compare the results to those obtained with other methods.

  10. Adding Chemoprophylaxis to Sequential Compression May Not Reduce the Risk of Venous Thromboembolism in Bariatric Surgery Patients

    PubMed Central

    Gagner, Michel; Selzer, Faith; Belle, Steve H.; Bessler, Marc; Courcoulas, Anita P.; Dakin, Gregory; Davis, Dan; Inabnet, William B.; Mitchell, James E.; Pomp, Alfons; Strain, Gladys; Pories, Walter J.; Wolfe, Bruce

    2012-01-01

    Background Anticoagulation, the use of sequential compression devices on lower extremities peri-operatively, and early ambulation are thought to reduce venous thromboembolism (VTE) postoperatively and are recommended to reduce VTE risk. However, the evidence upon which this recommendation is based is not particularly strong. We demonstrate that even a large, multi-center cohort with carefully collected prospective data is inadequate to provide sufficient evidence to support, or refute, this recommendation. Methods The Longitudinal Assessment of Bariatric Surgery (LABS) participants from 10 centers in the United States who underwent their first bariatric surgery between March, 2005 and December, 2007 comprise the study group. We examined the ability to address the question of whether anti-coagulation therapy, in addition to sequential compression, reduces the 30 day incidence of VTE or death sufficiently to recommend the use of prophylactic anticoagulation, a therapy that is not without risk. Results Of 4416 patients, 396 (9.0%) received sequential compression alone, while the others also received anticoagulation therapy. The incidence of VTE within 30 days of surgery was small (0.25% among those receiving sequential compression alone, 0.47% when anticoagulation therapy was added), and the 30 days incidence of death was also small (0.25% vs. 0.34%, p = 0.76, for sequential compression alone vs. sequential compression plus anticoagulation therapy). Estimates of the number of cases required to address the question of whether there is a difference in outcome related to VTE chemoprophylaxis, or whether the outcome rates are equivalent, range from 13,680 to at least 35,760 patients, depending upon whether superiority or equivalence is being analyzed. Conclusion Sufficient evidence from a clinical trial study to determine whether prophylactic anticoagulation added to compression devices further prevents VTEs is not available and such a trial is likely to be impractical

  11. Fructose induces prothrombotic phenotype in human endothelial cells : A new role for "added sugar" in cardio-metabolic risk.

    PubMed

    Cirillo, Plinio; Pellegrino, Grazia; Conte, Stefano; Maresca, Fabio; Pacifico, Francesco; Leonardi, Antonio; Trimarco, Bruno

    2015-11-01

    Intake of large amounts of added sweeteners has been associated with the pathogenesis of cardiometabolic risk. Several studies have shown that fructose increases the cardiovascular risk by modulating endothelial dysfunction and promoting atherosclerosis. Recently, a potential role for fructose in cardiovascular thrombosis has been suggested but with controversial results. Tissue factor (TF) plays a pivotal role in the pathophysiology of cardiovascular thrombosis by triggering the formation of intracoronary thrombi following endothelial injury. This study investigates the effects of fructose, in a concentration range usually observed in the plasma of patients with increased cardiovascular risk, on TF in human umbilical endothelial cells (HUVECs). Cells were stimulated with increasing concentrations of fructose (0.25, 1 and 2.5 mM) and then processed to evaluate TF-mRNA levels by real-time PCR as well as TF expression/activity by FACS analysis and procoagulant activity. Finally, a potential molecular pathway involved in modulating this phenomenon was investigated. We demonstrate that fructose induces transcription of mRNA for TF. In addition, we show that this monosaccharide promotes surface expression of TF that is functionally active. Fructose effects on TF appear modulated by the oxygen free radicals through activation of the transcription factor NF-κB since superoxide dismutase and NF-κB inhibitors suppressed TF expression. Data of the present study, although in vitro, indicate that fructose, besides promoting atherosclerosis, induces a prothrombotic phenotype in HUVECs, thus indicating one the mechanism(s) by which this sweetener might increase cardiometabolic risk.

  12. Approaches for assessing risks to sensitive populations: Lessons learned from evaluating risks in the pediatric populations*

    EPA Science Inventory

    Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a 'tool chest' of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of...

  13. Approaches for Assessing Risks to Sensitive Populations: Lessons Learned from Evaluating Risks in the Pediatric Population

    EPA Science Inventory

    Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a "tool chest" of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of t...

  14. Who Takes Risks in High-Risk Sports? A Typological Personality Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Castanier, Carole; Le Scanff, Christine; Woodman, Tim

    2010-01-01

    We investigated the risk-taking behaviors of 302 men involved in high-risk sports (downhill skiing, mountaineering, rock climbing, paragliding, or skydiving). The sportsmen were classified using a typological approach to personality based on eight personality types, which were constructed from combinations of neuroticism, extraversion, and…

  15. A risk-based approach for a national assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Whelan, Gene; Laniak, Gerard F.

    1998-10-18

    The need for environmental systems modeling is growing rapidly because of the 1) the combination of increasing technical scope and complexity related to questions of risk-based cause and effect and 2) need to explicitly address cost effectiveness in both the development and implementation of environmental regulations. The nature of risk assessments are evolving with their increased complexity in assessing individual sites and collection of sites, addressing regional or national regulatory needs. These assessments require the integration of existing tools and the development of new databases and models, based on a comprehensive and holistic view of the risk assessment problem. To meet these environmental regulatory needs, multiple-media-based assessments are formulated to view and assess risks from a comprehensive environmental systems perspective, crossing the boundaries of several scientific disciplines. Given the consideration and the advanced states of computer hardware and software, it is possible to design a software system that facilitates the development and integration of assessment tools (e.g., databases and models). In this paper, a risk-based approach for supporting national risk assessments is presented. This approach combines 1) databases, 2) multiple media models, combining source-term, fate and transport, exposure, and risk/hazard, and 3) sensitivity/uncertainty capabilities within a software system capable of growing within the science of risk assessment. The design and linkages of the system are discussed. This paper also provides the rationale behind the design of the framework, as there is a recognized need to develop more holistic approaches to risk assessment.

  16. Science-Driven Approach to Disaster Risk and Crisis Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.

    2014-12-01

    Disasters due to natural extreme events continue to grow in number and intensity. Disaster risk and crisis management requires long-term planning, and to undertake that planning, a science-driven approach is needed to understand and assess disaster risks and to help in impact assessment and in recovery processes after a disaster. Science is used in assessments and rapid modeling of the disaster impact, in forecasting triggered hazards and risk (e.g., a tsunami or a landslide after a large earthquake), in contacts with and medical treatment of the affected population, and in some other actions. At the stage of response to disaster, science helps to analyze routinely the disaster happened (e.g., the physical processes led to this extreme event; hidden vulnerabilities; etc.) At the stage of recovery, natural scientists improve the existing regional hazard assessments; engineers try to use new science to produce new materials and technologies to make safer houses and infrastructure. At the stage of disaster risk mitigation new scientific methods and approaches are being developed to study natural extreme events; vulnerability of society is periodically investigated, and the measures for increasing the resilience of society to extremes are developed; existing disaster management regulations are improved. At the stage of preparedness, integrated research on disaster risks should be developed to understand the roots of potential disasters. Enhanced forecasting and early warning systems are to be developed reducing predictive uncertainties, and comprehensive disaster risk assessment is to be undertaken at local, regional, national and global levels. Science education should be improved by introducing trans-disciplinary approach to disaster risks. Science can help society by improving awareness about extreme events, enhancing risk communication with policy makers, media and society, and assisting disaster risk management authorities in organization of local and regional

  17. A new approach to criteria for health risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Goh, Yang Miang

    2012-01-15

    Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is a developing component of the overall impact assessment process and as such needs access to procedures that can enable more consistent approaches to the stepwise process that is now generally accepted in both EIA and HIA. The guidelines developed during this project provide a structured process, based on risk assessment procedures which use consequences and likelihood, as a way of ranking risks to adverse health outcomes from activities subjected to HIA or HIA as part of EIA. The aim is to assess the potential for both acute and chronic health outcomes. The consequences component also identifies a series of consequences for the health care system, depicted as expressions of financial expenditure and the capacity of the health system. These more specific health risk assessment characteristics should provide for a broader consideration of health consequences and a more consistent estimation of the adverse health risks of a proposed development at both the scoping and risk assessment stages of the HIA process. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A more objective approach to health risk assessment is provided. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences for chronic and acute impacts. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences on the health care system. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for event frequency that could impact on health. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach presented is currently being trialled in Australia.

  18. A Monte Carlo simulation approach for flood risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agili, Hachem; Chokmani, Karem; Oubennaceur, Khalid; Poulin, Jimmy; Marceau, Pascal

    2016-04-01

    Floods are the most frequent natural disaster and the most damaging in Canada. The issue of assessing and managing the risk related to this disaster has become increasingly crucial for both local and national authorities. Brigham, a municipality located in southern Quebec Province, is one of the heavily affected regions by this disaster because of frequent overflows of the Yamaska River reaching two to three times per year. Since Irene Hurricane which hit the region in 2011 causing considerable socio-economic damage, the implementation of mitigation measures has become a major priority for this municipality. To do this, a preliminary study to evaluate the risk to which this region is exposed is essential. Conventionally, approaches only based on the characterization of the hazard (e.g. floodplains extensive, flood depth) are generally adopted to study the risk of flooding. In order to improve the knowledge of this risk, a Monte Carlo simulation approach combining information on the hazard with vulnerability-related aspects of buildings has been developed. This approach integrates three main components namely hydrological modeling through flow-probability functions, hydraulic modeling using flow-submersion height functions and the study of buildings damage based on damage functions adapted to the Quebec habitat. The application of this approach allows estimating the annual average cost of damage caused by floods on buildings. The obtained results will be useful for local authorities to support their decisions on risk management and prevention against this disaster.

  19. Approach for evaluating inundation risks in urban drainage systems.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Zhihua; Chen, Zhihe; Chen, Xiaohong; He, Peiying

    2016-05-15

    Urban inundation is a serious challenge that increasingly confronts the residents of many cities, as well as policymakers. Hence, inundation evaluation is becoming increasingly important around the world. This comprehensive assessment involves numerous indices in urban catchments, but the high-dimensional and non-linear relationship between the indices and the risk presents an enormous challenge for accurate evaluation. Therefore, an approach is hereby proposed to qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate inundation risks in urban drainage systems based on a storm water management model, the projection pursuit method, the ordinary kriging method and the K-means clustering method. This approach is tested using a residential district in Guangzhou, China. Seven evaluation indices were selected and twenty rainfall-runoff events were used to calibrate and validate the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model. The inundation risks in the study area drainage system were evaluated under different rainfall scenarios. The following conclusions are reached. (1) The proposed approach, without subjective factors, can identify the main driving factors, i.e., inundation duration, largest water flow and total flood amount in this study area. (2) The inundation risk of each manhole can be qualitatively analyzed and quantitatively calculated. There are 1, 8, 11, 14, 21, and 21 manholes at risk under the return periods of 1-year, 5-years, 10-years, 20-years, 50-years and 100-years, respectively. (3) The areas of levels III, IV and V increase with increasing rainfall return period based on analyzing the inundation risks for a variety of characteristics. (4) The relationships between rainfall intensity and inundation-affected areas are revealed by a logarithmic model. This study proposes a novel and successful approach to assessing risk in urban drainage systems and provides guidance for improving urban drainage systems and inundation preparedness. PMID:26897578

  20. Approach for evaluating inundation risks in urban drainage systems.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Zhihua; Chen, Zhihe; Chen, Xiaohong; He, Peiying

    2016-05-15

    Urban inundation is a serious challenge that increasingly confronts the residents of many cities, as well as policymakers. Hence, inundation evaluation is becoming increasingly important around the world. This comprehensive assessment involves numerous indices in urban catchments, but the high-dimensional and non-linear relationship between the indices and the risk presents an enormous challenge for accurate evaluation. Therefore, an approach is hereby proposed to qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate inundation risks in urban drainage systems based on a storm water management model, the projection pursuit method, the ordinary kriging method and the K-means clustering method. This approach is tested using a residential district in Guangzhou, China. Seven evaluation indices were selected and twenty rainfall-runoff events were used to calibrate and validate the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model. The inundation risks in the study area drainage system were evaluated under different rainfall scenarios. The following conclusions are reached. (1) The proposed approach, without subjective factors, can identify the main driving factors, i.e., inundation duration, largest water flow and total flood amount in this study area. (2) The inundation risk of each manhole can be qualitatively analyzed and quantitatively calculated. There are 1, 8, 11, 14, 21, and 21 manholes at risk under the return periods of 1-year, 5-years, 10-years, 20-years, 50-years and 100-years, respectively. (3) The areas of levels III, IV and V increase with increasing rainfall return period based on analyzing the inundation risks for a variety of characteristics. (4) The relationships between rainfall intensity and inundation-affected areas are revealed by a logarithmic model. This study proposes a novel and successful approach to assessing risk in urban drainage systems and provides guidance for improving urban drainage systems and inundation preparedness.

  1. MODELING APPROACHES TO POPULATION-LEVEL RISK AESSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A SETAC Pellston Workshop on Population-Level Risk Assessment was held in Roskilde, Denmark on 23-27 August 2003. One aspect of this workshop focused on modeling approaches for characterizing population-level effects of chemical exposure. The modeling work group identified th...

  2. Plenary lecture: innovative modeling approaches applicable to risk assessments

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Proper identification of safe and unsafe food at the processing plant is important for maximizing the public health benefit of food by ensuring both its consumption and safety. Risk assessment is a holistic approach to food safety that consists of four steps: 1) hazard identification; 2) exposure a...

  3. Exposure as Part of a Systems Approach for Assessing Risk

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is facing large challenges in managing environmental chemicals with increasingly complex requirements for assessing risk that push the limits of our current approaches. To address some of these challenges, the National Research Council (NR...

  4. A risk-informed approach to safety margins analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Curtis Smith; Diego Mandelli

    2013-07-01

    The Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Pathway is a systematic approach developed to characterize and quantify safety margins of nuclear power plant structures, systems and components. The model has been tested on the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Lab.

  5. EPA ORD RISK MANAGEMENT APPROACH TO DRINKING WATER RESEARCH

    EPA Science Inventory

    The approach to managing the risks associated with many environmental concerns has changed over the last five years with more emphasis being placed on integrating sound science into the more complex mix of socio-economic considerations facing American society today. This paper g...

  6. Integrative Approaches to Evaluating Neurotoxicity Data for Risk Assessment.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment classically has been based on single adverse outcomes identified as the Lowest Observable Adverse Effect Level (LOAEL) or the highest dose level in a credible study producing a No Observable Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL). While this approach has been useful overal...

  7. Supporting At-Risk Students. A Creative Team Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Scuccimarra, Dave; Woodbury, Eileen

    The Student Support Team (SST) is a school-based interdisciplinary team designed to maximize the resources and support available to teachers, students, and parents. This presentation describes its approach and operation. The SST attempts early identification of students at risk for school failure due to any combination of poor academic…

  8. A Holistic Approach for Risk Management During Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, an approach for the identification, assessment, mitigation and continuous management of risks during the process of designing a space mission is presented. This approach has been developed by observing the risk patterns that occur at the Project Design Center of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (TeamX) which develops conceptual, concurrent design of Space Missions. TeamX develops an end-to-end conceptual design of a Space Mission in a matter of one or two weeks. As the risk chair in TeamX, the author has had the opportunity to observe the risk patterns that occur during design over the course of many design sessions. This paper introduces an abstraction and generalization of those patterns. Risk is defined as anything that can go wrong, along with its approximate likelihood and consequence. The indicators, and causes, and effects of these risks are cross cutting across the multiple levels of people and processes involved in the design, and the actual design product itself.

  9. Risk assessment of nanomaterials and nanoproducts - adaptation of traditional approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jahnel, J.; Fleischer, T.; Seitz, S. B.

    2013-04-01

    Different approaches have been adopted for assessing the potential risks of conventional chemicals and products for human health. In general, the traditional paradigm is a toxicological-driven chemical-by-chemical approach, focusing on single toxic endpoints. Scope and responsibilities for the development and implementation of a risk assessment concept vary across sectors and areas and depends on the specific regulatory environment and the specific protection goals. Thus, risk assessment implication is a complex task based not only on science based knowledge but also on the regulatory context involving different parties and stakeholders. Questions have been raised whether standard paradigms for conventional chemicals would be applicable and adequate for new materials, products and applications of nanotechnology. Most scientists and stakeholders assume that current standard methods are in principle applicable to nanomaterials, but specific aspects require further development. The paper presents additional technical improvements like the complementary use of the life cycle methodology and the support of risk-based classification systems. But also aspects improving the utility of risk assessment with regard to societal impacts on risk governance are discussed.

  10. Governance of environmental risk: new approaches to managing stakeholder involvement.

    PubMed

    Benn, Suzanne; Dunphy, Dexter; Martin, Andrew

    2009-04-01

    Disputes concerning industrial legacies such as the disposal of toxic wastes illustrate changing pressures on corporations and governments. Business and governments are now confronted with managing the expectations of a society increasingly aware of the social and environmental impacts and risks associated with economic development and demanding more equitable distribution and democratic management of such risks. The closed managerialist decision-making of the powerful bureaucracies and corporations of the industrial era is informed by traditional management theory which cannot provide a framework for the adequate governance of these risks. Recent socio-political theories have conceptualised some key themes that must be addressed in a more fitting approach to governance. We identify more recent management and governance theory which addresses these themes and develop a process-based approach to governance of environmental disputes that allows for the evolving nature of stakeholder relations in a highly complex multiple stakeholder arena.

  11. EPA`s approach to assessment of radon risk

    SciTech Connect

    Schmidt, A.; Puskin, J.S.; Nelson, N.; Nelson, C.B.

    1992-12-31

    The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has assessed the potential lung-cancer risk to the general population due to radon based on the Agency`s general principles of risk assessment. This same approach has been used to assess the impact on public health of other carcinogenic environmental pollutants. This paper briefly describes the application of EPA`s approach to radon and includes a description of the method used by the Agency to estimate that approximately 22,000 lung-cancer deaths per year may be related to radon exposure. Also presented are the weight of evidence for classifying radon as a known human carcinogen and the uncertainties associated with estimating risks from radon exposure. These combined factors reflect the extent of the underlying support and the context for EPA`s estimates of lung-cancer deaths.

  12. Holistic Approach to Risk Management Allows School Districts To Maximize Their Investments.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bambino, Robert; Carruthers, J. Brett; Markott, Frank

    2003-01-01

    Describes the basic components of risk management, elements of a school-specific risk management program, and the value-added services provided by insurance carriers and other educational support organizations. (PKP)

  13. Risks, scientific uncertainty and the approach of applying precautionary principle.

    PubMed

    Lo, Chang-fa

    2009-03-01

    The paper intends to clarify the nature and aspects of risks and scientific uncertainty and also to elaborate the approach of application of precautionary principle for the purpose of handling the risk arising from scientific uncertainty. It explains the relations between risks and the application of precautionary principle at international and domestic levels. In the situations where an international treaty has admitted the precautionary principle and in the situation where there is no international treaty admitting the precautionary principle or enumerating the conditions to take measures, the precautionary principle has a role to play. The paper proposes a decision making tool, containing questions to be asked, to help policymakers to apply the principle. It also proposes a "weighing and balancing" procedure to help them decide the contents of the measure to cope with the potential risk and to avoid excessive measures.

  14. Perception of risks from electromagnetic fields: A psychometric evaluation of a risk-communication approach

    SciTech Connect

    MacGregor, D.G.; Slovic, P. ); Morgan, M.G. )

    1994-10-01

    Potential health risks from exposure to power-frequency electromagnetic fields (EMF) have become an issue of significant public concern. This study evaluates a brochure designed to communicate EMF health risks from a scientific perspective. The study utilized a pretest-posttest design in which respondents judged various sources of EMF (and other) health and safety risks, both before reaching the brochure and after. Respondents assessed risks on dimensions similar to those utilized in previous studies of risk perception. In addition, detailed ratings were made that probed respondents' beliefs about the possible causal effects of EMF exposure. The findings suggest that naive beliefs about the potential of EMF exposure to cause harm were highly influenced by specific content elements of the brochure. The implications for using risk-communication approaches based on communicating scientific uncertainty are discussed. 19 refs., 1 fig., 11 tabs.

  15. Future trends in flood risk in Indonesia - A probabilistic approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muis, Sanne; Guneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Ward, Philip

    2014-05-01

    Indonesia is one of the 10 most populous countries in the world and is highly vulnerable to (river) flooding. Catastrophic floods occur on a regular basis; total estimated damages were US 0.8 bn in 2010 and US 3 bn in 2013. Large parts of Greater Jakarta, the capital city, are annually subject to flooding. Flood risks (i.e. the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability) are increasing due to rapid increases in exposure, such as strong population growth and ongoing economic development. The increase in risk may also be amplified by increasing flood hazards, such as increasing flood frequency and intensity due to climate change and land subsidence. The implementation of adaptation measures, such as the construction of dykes and strategic urban planning, may counteract these increasing trends. However, despite its importance for adaptation planning, a comprehensive assessment of current and future flood risk in Indonesia is lacking. This contribution addresses this issue and aims to provide insight into how socio-economic trends and climate change projections may shape future flood risks in Indonesia. Flood risk were calculated using an adapted version of the GLOFRIS global flood risk assessment model. Using this approach, we produced probabilistic maps of flood risks (i.e. annual expected damage) at a resolution of 30"x30" (ca. 1km x 1km at the equator). To represent flood exposure, we produced probabilistic projections of urban growth in a Monte-Carlo fashion based on probability density functions of projected population and GDP values for 2030. To represent flood hazard, inundation maps were computed using the hydrological-hydraulic component of GLOFRIS. These maps show flood inundation extent and depth for several return periods and were produced for several combinations of GCMs and future socioeconomic scenarios. Finally, the implementation of different adaptation strategies was incorporated into the model to explore to what extent adaptation may be able to

  16. 77 FR 38856 - An Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Decisions on Plant-Specific...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-06-29

    ... COMMISSION An Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Decisions on Plant-Specific Changes...; extension of comment period. SUMMARY: On May 17, 2012 (77 FR 29391), the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission... Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Decisions on Plant-Specific Changes to...

  17. A data-driven approach to quality risk management

    PubMed Central

    Alemayehu, Demissie; Alvir, Jose; Levenstein, Marcia; Nickerson, David

    2013-01-01

    Aim: An effective clinical trial strategy to ensure patient safety as well as trial quality and efficiency involves an integrated approach, including prospective identification of risk factors, mitigation of the risks through proper study design and execution, and assessment of quality metrics in real-time. Such an integrated quality management plan may also be enhanced by using data-driven techniques to identify risk factors that are most relevant in predicting quality issues associated with a trial. In this paper, we illustrate such an approach using data collected from actual clinical trials. Materials and Methods: Several statistical methods were employed, including the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and logistic regression, to identify the presence of association between risk factors and the occurrence of quality issues, applied to data on quality of clinical trials sponsored by Pfizer. Results: Only a subset of the risk factors had a significant association with quality issues, and included: Whether study used Placebo, whether an agent was a biologic, unusual packaging label, complex dosing, and over 25 planned procedures. Conclusion: Proper implementation of the strategy can help to optimize resource utilization without compromising trial integrity and patient safety. PMID:24312890

  18. Multi-analytical Approaches Informing the Risk of Sepsis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gwadry-Sridhar, Femida; Lewden, Benoit; Mequanint, Selam; Bauer, Michael

    Sepsis is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity and is often associated with increased hospital resource utilization, prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital stay. The economic burden associated with sepsis is huge. With advances in medicine, there are now aggressive goal oriented treatments that can be used to help these patients. If we were able to predict which patients may be at risk for sepsis we could start treatment early and potentially reduce the risk of mortality and morbidity. Analytic methods currently used in clinical research to determine the risk of a patient developing sepsis may be further enhanced by using multi-modal analytic methods that together could be used to provide greater precision. Researchers commonly use univariate and multivariate regressions to develop predictive models. We hypothesized that such models could be enhanced by using multiple analytic methods that together could be used to provide greater insight. In this paper, we analyze data about patients with and without sepsis using a decision tree approach and a cluster analysis approach. A comparison with a regression approach shows strong similarity among variables identified, though not an exact match. We compare the variables identified by the different approaches and draw conclusions about the respective predictive capabilities,while considering their clinical significance.

  19. From Lipids to Inflammation: New Approaches to Reducing Atherosclerotic Risk.

    PubMed

    Shapiro, Michael D; Fazio, Sergio

    2016-02-19

    The introduction of statins ≈ 30 years ago ushered in the era of lipid lowering as the most effective way to reduce risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Nonetheless, residual risk remains high, and statin intolerance is frequently encountered in clinical practice. After a long dry period, the field of therapeutics targeted to lipids and atherosclerosis has entered a renaissance. Moreover, the demonstration of clinical benefits from the addition of ezetimibe to statin therapy in subjects with acute coronary syndromes has renewed the enthusiasm for the cholesterol hypothesis and the hope that additional agents that lower low-density lipoprotein will decrease risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Drugs in the orphan disease category are now available for patients with the most extreme hypercholesterolemia. Furthermore, discovery and rapid translation of a novel biological pathway has given rise to a new class of cholesterol-lowering drugs, the proprotein convertase subtilisin kexin-9 inhibitors. Trials of niacin added to statin have failed to demonstrate cardiac benefits, and 3 cholesterol ester transfer protein inhibitors have also failed to reduce atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk, despite producing substantial increases in HDL levels. Although the utility of triglyceride-lowering therapies remains uncertain, 2 large clinical trials are testing the influence of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids on atherosclerotic events in hypertriglyceridemia. Novel antisense therapies targeting apolipoprotein C-III (for triglyceride reduction) and apo(a) (for lipoprotein(a) reduction) are showing a promising trajectory. Finally, 2 large clinical trials are formally putting the inflammatory hypothesis of atherosclerosis to the test and may open a new avenue for cardiovascular disease risk reduction.

  20. Cumulative Risk Assessment Toolbox: Methods and Approaches for the Practitioner

    PubMed Central

    MacDonell, Margaret M.; Haroun, Lynne A.; Teuschler, Linda K.; Rice, Glenn E.; Hertzberg, Richard C.; Butler, James P.; Chang, Young-Soo; Clark, Shanna L.; Johns, Alan P.; Perry, Camarie S.; Garcia, Shannon S.; Jacobi, John H.; Scofield, Marcienne A.

    2013-01-01

    The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1) planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2) environmental fate and transport; (3) exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4) toxicity analysis; and (5) risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities. PMID:23762048

  1. Agents, Bayes, and Climatic Risks - a modular modelling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haas, A.; Jaeger, C.

    2005-08-01

    When insurance firms, energy companies, governments, NGOs, and other agents strive to manage climatic risks, it is by no way clear what the aggregate outcome should and will be. As a framework for investigating this subject, we present the LAGOM model family. It is based on modules depicting learning social agents. For managing climate risks, our agents use second order probabilities and update them by means of a Bayesian mechanism while differing in priors and risk aversion. The interactions between these modules and the aggregate outcomes of their actions are implemented using further modules. The software system is implemented as a series of parallel processes using the CIAMn approach. It is possible to couple modules irrespective of the language they are written in, the operating system under which they are run, and the physical location of the machine.

  2. Psychoeducational group approach: HIV risk reduction in drug users.

    PubMed

    Sorensen, J L; London, J; Heitzmann, C; Gibson, D R; Morales, E S; Dumontet, R; Acree, M

    1994-04-01

    In two trials of a small-group AIDS prevention approach, 50 methadone maintenance patients and 98 heroin abusers in outpatient detoxification were randomly assigned to experimental or comparison conditions. Experimental condition subjects received a 6-hour, small-group intervention that aimed to improve their knowledge and attitudes about AIDS, skills in syringe sterilization and condom use, and changing high-risk needle use and sexual behaviors. Comparison subjects received a set of written materials about AIDS. At posttest and 3-month follow-ups, experimental condition subjects in both maintenance and detoxification demonstrated greater knowledge of AIDS and risk reduction practices and improved skill in demonstrating condom use. Although outpatient detoxification subjects displayed considerably more risk behaviors at study outset, the intervention's effect appeared to be more robust in methadone maintenance patients. The relative lack of impact on subjects' behaviors points out that more potent, sustained interventions need to be developed to slow the spread of HIV among injecting drug users.

  3. Protecting the Smart Grid: A Risk Based Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Clements, Samuel L.; Kirkham, Harold; Elizondo, Marcelo A.; Lu, Shuai

    2011-10-10

    This paper describes a risk-based approach to security that has been used for years in protecting physical assets, and shows how it could be modified to help secure the digital aspects of the smart grid and control systems in general. One way the smart grid has been said to be vulnerable is that mass load fluctuations could be created by quickly turning off and on large quantities of smart meters. We investigate the plausibility.

  4. Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System

    SciTech Connect

    Gehlhaus, Martin W.; Gift, Jeffrey S.; Hogan, Karen A.; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M.; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

    2011-07-15

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment.

  5. Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System.

    PubMed

    Gehlhaus, Martin W; Gift, Jeffrey S; Hogan, Karen A; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

    2011-07-15

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment.

  6. [Outsourcing in long-term care: a risk management approach].

    PubMed

    Guimarães, Cristina Machado; Carvalho, José Crespo de

    2012-05-01

    This article seeks to investigate outsourcing decisions in supply chain management of healthcare organizations, namely the motives and constraints behind the decision, the selection criteria for activities to be outsourced to third parties, the type of possible agreements, and the impact of this decision on the organization per se. A case study of the start-up phase of a Long-term Care unit with an innovative approach and high levels of customization was conducted to understand the outsourcing process in a start-up context (not in the standard context of organizational change) and a risk evaluation matrix was created for outsourcing activities in order to define and implement a performance monitoring process. This study seeks to understand how to evaluate and assess the risks of an outsourcing strategy and proposes a monitoring model using risk management tools. It was shown that the risk management approach can be a solution for monitoring outsourcing in the organizational start-up phase. Conclusions concerning dissatisfaction with the results of outsourcing strategies adopted are also presented.

  7. [Outsourcing in long-term care: a risk management approach].

    PubMed

    Guimarães, Cristina Machado; Carvalho, José Crespo de

    2012-05-01

    This article seeks to investigate outsourcing decisions in supply chain management of healthcare organizations, namely the motives and constraints behind the decision, the selection criteria for activities to be outsourced to third parties, the type of possible agreements, and the impact of this decision on the organization per se. A case study of the start-up phase of a Long-term Care unit with an innovative approach and high levels of customization was conducted to understand the outsourcing process in a start-up context (not in the standard context of organizational change) and a risk evaluation matrix was created for outsourcing activities in order to define and implement a performance monitoring process. This study seeks to understand how to evaluate and assess the risks of an outsourcing strategy and proposes a monitoring model using risk management tools. It was shown that the risk management approach can be a solution for monitoring outsourcing in the organizational start-up phase. Conclusions concerning dissatisfaction with the results of outsourcing strategies adopted are also presented. PMID:22634811

  8. A physical approach on flood risk vulnerability of buildings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazzorana, B.; Simoni, S.; Scherer, C.; Gems, B.; Fuchs, S.; Keiler, M.

    2014-09-01

    The design of efficient hydrological risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the elements exposed. Recently, extensive research efforts were undertaken to develop and refine empirical relationships linking the structural vulnerability of buildings to the impact forces of the hazard processes. These empirical vulnerability functions allow estimating the expected direct losses as a result of the hazard scenario based on spatially explicit representation of the process patterns and the elements at risk classified into defined typological categories. However, due to the underlying empiricism of such vulnerability functions, the physics of the damage-generating mechanisms for a well-defined element at risk with its peculiar geometry and structural characteristics remain unveiled, and, as such, the applicability of the empirical approach for planning hazard-proof residential buildings is limited. Therefore, we propose a conceptual assessment scheme to close this gap. This assessment scheme encompasses distinct analytical steps: modelling (a) the process intensity, (b) the impact on the element at risk exposed and (c) the physical response of the building envelope. Furthermore, these results provide the input data for the subsequent damage evaluation and economic damage valuation. This dynamic assessment supports all relevant planning activities with respect to a minimisation of losses, and can be implemented in the operational risk assessment procedure.

  9. A physical approach on flood risk vulnerability of buildings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazzorana, B.; Simoni, S.; Scherer, C.; Gems, B.; Fuchs, S.; Keiler, M.

    2014-02-01

    The design of efficient hydrological risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the elements exposed. Recently, extensive research efforts were undertaken to develop and refine empirical relationships linking the structural vulnerability of buildings to the impact forces of the hazard processes. These empirical vulnerability functions allow estimating the expected direct losses as a result of the hazard scenario based on spatially explicit representation of the process patterns and the elements at risk classified into defined typological categories. However, due to the underlying empiricism of such vulnerability functions, the physics of the damage generating mechanisms for a well-defined element at risk with its peculiar geometry and structural characteristics remain unveiled, and, as such, the applicability of the empirical approach for planning hazard-proof residential buildings is limited. Therefore, we propose a conceptual assessment scheme to close this gap. This assessment scheme encompasses distinct analytical steps: modelling (a) the process intensity, (b) the impact on the element at risk exposed and (c) the physical response of the building envelope. Furthermore, these results provide the input data for the subsequent damage evaluation and economic damage valuation. This dynamic assessment supports all relevant planning activities with respect to a minimisation of losses, and can be implemented in the operational risk assessment procedure.

  10. Clinical Assessment of Risk Management: an INtegrated Approach (CARMINA).

    PubMed

    Tricarico, Pierfrancesco; Tardivo, Stefano; Sotgiu, Giovanni; Moretti, Francesca; Poletti, Piera; Fiore, Alberto; Monturano, Massimo; Mura, Ida; Privitera, Gaetano; Brusaferro, Silvio

    2016-08-01

    Purpose - The European Union recommendations for patient safety calls for shared clinical risk management (CRM) safety standards able to guide organizations in CRM implementation. The purpose of this paper is to develop a self-evaluation tool to measure healthcare organization performance on CRM and guide improvements over time. Design/methodology/approach - A multi-step approach was implemented including: a systematic literature review; consensus meetings with an expert panel from eight Italian leader organizations to get to an agreement on the first version; field testing to test instrument feasibility and flexibility; Delphi strategy with a second expert panel for content validation and balanced scoring system development. Findings - The self-assessment tool - Clinical Assessment of Risk Management: an INtegrated Approach includes seven areas (governance, communication, knowledge and skills, safe environment, care processes, adverse event management, learning from experience) and 52 standards. Each standard is evaluated according to four performance levels: minimum; monitoring; outcomes; and improvement actions, which resulted in a feasible, flexible and valid instrument to be used throughout different organizations. Practical implications - This tool allows practitioners to assess their CRM activities compared to minimum levels, monitor performance, benchmarking with other institutions and spreading results to different stakeholders. Originality/value - The multi-step approach allowed us to identify core minimum CRM levels in a field where no consensus has been reached. Most standards may be easily adopted in other countries. PMID:27477931

  11. Clinical Assessment of Risk Management: an INtegrated Approach (CARMINA).

    PubMed

    Tricarico, Pierfrancesco; Tardivo, Stefano; Sotgiu, Giovanni; Moretti, Francesca; Poletti, Piera; Fiore, Alberto; Monturano, Massimo; Mura, Ida; Privitera, Gaetano; Brusaferro, Silvio

    2016-08-01

    Purpose - The European Union recommendations for patient safety calls for shared clinical risk management (CRM) safety standards able to guide organizations in CRM implementation. The purpose of this paper is to develop a self-evaluation tool to measure healthcare organization performance on CRM and guide improvements over time. Design/methodology/approach - A multi-step approach was implemented including: a systematic literature review; consensus meetings with an expert panel from eight Italian leader organizations to get to an agreement on the first version; field testing to test instrument feasibility and flexibility; Delphi strategy with a second expert panel for content validation and balanced scoring system development. Findings - The self-assessment tool - Clinical Assessment of Risk Management: an INtegrated Approach includes seven areas (governance, communication, knowledge and skills, safe environment, care processes, adverse event management, learning from experience) and 52 standards. Each standard is evaluated according to four performance levels: minimum; monitoring; outcomes; and improvement actions, which resulted in a feasible, flexible and valid instrument to be used throughout different organizations. Practical implications - This tool allows practitioners to assess their CRM activities compared to minimum levels, monitor performance, benchmarking with other institutions and spreading results to different stakeholders. Originality/value - The multi-step approach allowed us to identify core minimum CRM levels in a field where no consensus has been reached. Most standards may be easily adopted in other countries.

  12. Mediterranean Storms: An Integrated Approach of Risk Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karageorgou, H.; Riza, E.; Linos, A.; Papanikolaou, D.

    2010-09-01

    Disaster by UN definition is "a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society, involving widespread human, material, economic, or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using only its own resources". Mediterranean storms induce flash floods caused by excessive amounts of rainfall within a short lasting period of time. The intensity and duration of precipitation, region geomorphology, urbanization and different governmental emergency management structures trigger different consequences between Mediterranean countries. The integrated approach in management of storm risk represents a holistic perspective including interactions between government, science and technology institutions, developing agencies, private sector, NGOs and public. Local authorities and national government are responsible for the design, preparation and decision on storm risk management policies and strategies considering scientific risk identifying, assessing and understanding. Efficient governance management requires satisfied response to early warning systems, functionality of the affected systems upon which society depends and appropriate focus on variable interest, beliefs, values and ideologies between social groups. Also an appropriate balancing of benefits and costs in an efficient and equitable manner is important for the governance risk management. Natural sciences in corporation with the engineering science have developed effective early prediction, warning and monitoring systems on storm and flood risk. The health sciences use prediction systems for health related hazards and consequences and the social sciences research estimates the human resilience during disasters and the factors which affect and determine the human behavior. Also social sciences survey the response of public to early warning messages, the appropriate communicative methods to distributing messages and mechanisms to improve public

  13. Risk management measures for chemicals: the "COSHH essentials" approach.

    PubMed

    Garrod, A N I; Evans, P G; Davy, C W

    2007-12-01

    "COSHH essentials" was developed in Great Britain to help duty holders comply with the Control of Substances Hazardous to Health (COSHH) Regulations. It uses a similar approach to that described in the new European "REACH" Regulation (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals; EC No. 1907/2006 of the European Parliament), insofar as it identifies measures for managing the risk for specified exposure scenarios. It can therefore assist REACH duty holders with the identification and communication of appropriate risk-management measures. The technical basis for COSHH essentials is explained in the original papers published in the Annals of Occupational Hygiene. Its details will, therefore, not be described here; rather, its ability to provide a suitable means for communicating risk-management measures will be explored. COSHH essentials is a simple tool based on an empirical approach to risk assessment and risk management. The output is a "Control Guidance Sheet" that lists the "dos" and "don'ts" for control in a specific task scenario. The guidance in COSHH essentials recognises that exposure in the workplace will depend not just on mechanical controls, but also on a number of other factors, including administrative and behavioural controls, such as systems of work, supervision and training. In 2002, COSHH essentials was made freely available via the internet (http://www.coshh-essentials.org.uk/). This electronic delivery enabled links to be made between product series that share tasks, such as drum filling, and with ancillary guidance, such as setting up health surveillance for work with a respiratory sensitiser. COSHH essentials has proved to be a popular tool for communicating good control practice. It has attracted over 1 million visits to its site since its launch. It offers a common benchmark of good practice for chemical users, manufacturers, suppliers and importers, as well as regulators and health professionals.

  14. Risk management measures for chemicals: the "COSHH essentials" approach.

    PubMed

    Garrod, A N I; Evans, P G; Davy, C W

    2007-12-01

    "COSHH essentials" was developed in Great Britain to help duty holders comply with the Control of Substances Hazardous to Health (COSHH) Regulations. It uses a similar approach to that described in the new European "REACH" Regulation (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals; EC No. 1907/2006 of the European Parliament), insofar as it identifies measures for managing the risk for specified exposure scenarios. It can therefore assist REACH duty holders with the identification and communication of appropriate risk-management measures. The technical basis for COSHH essentials is explained in the original papers published in the Annals of Occupational Hygiene. Its details will, therefore, not be described here; rather, its ability to provide a suitable means for communicating risk-management measures will be explored. COSHH essentials is a simple tool based on an empirical approach to risk assessment and risk management. The output is a "Control Guidance Sheet" that lists the "dos" and "don'ts" for control in a specific task scenario. The guidance in COSHH essentials recognises that exposure in the workplace will depend not just on mechanical controls, but also on a number of other factors, including administrative and behavioural controls, such as systems of work, supervision and training. In 2002, COSHH essentials was made freely available via the internet (http://www.coshh-essentials.org.uk/). This electronic delivery enabled links to be made between product series that share tasks, such as drum filling, and with ancillary guidance, such as setting up health surveillance for work with a respiratory sensitiser. COSHH essentials has proved to be a popular tool for communicating good control practice. It has attracted over 1 million visits to its site since its launch. It offers a common benchmark of good practice for chemical users, manufacturers, suppliers and importers, as well as regulators and health professionals. PMID:17565355

  15. Geospatial modeling approach to monument construction using Michigan from A.D. 1000-1600 as a case study.

    PubMed

    Howey, Meghan C L; Palace, Michael W; McMichael, Crystal H

    2016-07-01

    Building monuments was one way that past societies reconfigured their landscapes in response to shifting social and ecological factors. Understanding the connections between those factors and monument construction is critical, especially when multiple types of monuments were constructed across the same landscape. Geospatial technologies enable past cultural activities and environmental variables to be examined together at large scales. Many geospatial modeling approaches, however, are not designed for presence-only (occurrence) data, which can be limiting given that many archaeological site records are presence only. We use maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt), which works with presence-only data, to predict the distribution of monuments across large landscapes, and we analyze MaxEnt output to quantify the contributions of spatioenvironmental variables to predicted distributions. We apply our approach to co-occurring Late Precontact (ca. A.D. 1000-1600) monuments in Michigan: (i) mounds and (ii) earthwork enclosures. Many of these features have been destroyed by modern development, and therefore, we conducted archival research to develop our monument occurrence database. We modeled each monument type separately using the same input variables. Analyzing variable contribution to MaxEnt output, we show that mound and enclosure landscape suitability was driven by contrasting variables. Proximity to inland lakes was key to mound placement, and proximity to rivers was key to sacred enclosures. This juxtaposition suggests that mounds met local needs for resource procurement success, whereas enclosures filled broader regional needs for intergroup exchange and shared ritual. Our study shows how MaxEnt can be used to develop sophisticated models of past cultural processes, including monument building, with imperfect, limited, presence-only data.

  16. Geospatial modeling approach to monument construction using Michigan from A.D. 1000–1600 as a case study

    PubMed Central

    Howey, Meghan C. L.; Palace, Michael W.; McMichael, Crystal H.

    2016-01-01

    Building monuments was one way that past societies reconfigured their landscapes in response to shifting social and ecological factors. Understanding the connections between those factors and monument construction is critical, especially when multiple types of monuments were constructed across the same landscape. Geospatial technologies enable past cultural activities and environmental variables to be examined together at large scales. Many geospatial modeling approaches, however, are not designed for presence-only (occurrence) data, which can be limiting given that many archaeological site records are presence only. We use maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt), which works with presence-only data, to predict the distribution of monuments across large landscapes, and we analyze MaxEnt output to quantify the contributions of spatioenvironmental variables to predicted distributions. We apply our approach to co-occurring Late Precontact (ca. A.D. 1000–1600) monuments in Michigan: (i) mounds and (ii) earthwork enclosures. Many of these features have been destroyed by modern development, and therefore, we conducted archival research to develop our monument occurrence database. We modeled each monument type separately using the same input variables. Analyzing variable contribution to MaxEnt output, we show that mound and enclosure landscape suitability was driven by contrasting variables. Proximity to inland lakes was key to mound placement, and proximity to rivers was key to sacred enclosures. This juxtaposition suggests that mounds met local needs for resource procurement success, whereas enclosures filled broader regional needs for intergroup exchange and shared ritual. Our study shows how MaxEnt can be used to develop sophisticated models of past cultural processes, including monument building, with imperfect, limited, presence-only data. PMID:27330115

  17. Geospatial modeling approach to monument construction using Michigan from A.D. 1000-1600 as a case study.

    PubMed

    Howey, Meghan C L; Palace, Michael W; McMichael, Crystal H

    2016-07-01

    Building monuments was one way that past societies reconfigured their landscapes in response to shifting social and ecological factors. Understanding the connections between those factors and monument construction is critical, especially when multiple types of monuments were constructed across the same landscape. Geospatial technologies enable past cultural activities and environmental variables to be examined together at large scales. Many geospatial modeling approaches, however, are not designed for presence-only (occurrence) data, which can be limiting given that many archaeological site records are presence only. We use maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt), which works with presence-only data, to predict the distribution of monuments across large landscapes, and we analyze MaxEnt output to quantify the contributions of spatioenvironmental variables to predicted distributions. We apply our approach to co-occurring Late Precontact (ca. A.D. 1000-1600) monuments in Michigan: (i) mounds and (ii) earthwork enclosures. Many of these features have been destroyed by modern development, and therefore, we conducted archival research to develop our monument occurrence database. We modeled each monument type separately using the same input variables. Analyzing variable contribution to MaxEnt output, we show that mound and enclosure landscape suitability was driven by contrasting variables. Proximity to inland lakes was key to mound placement, and proximity to rivers was key to sacred enclosures. This juxtaposition suggests that mounds met local needs for resource procurement success, whereas enclosures filled broader regional needs for intergroup exchange and shared ritual. Our study shows how MaxEnt can be used to develop sophisticated models of past cultural processes, including monument building, with imperfect, limited, presence-only data. PMID:27330115

  18. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System State-Added Questions: Leveraging an Existing Surveillance System to Improve Knowledge of Women's Reproductive Health.

    PubMed

    Boulet, Sheree L; Warner, Lee; Adamski, Alys; Smith, Ruben A; Burley, Kim; Grigorescu, Violanda

    2016-06-01

    As the prevalence of chronic conditions among women of reproductive age continues to rise, studies assessing the intersection of chronic disease and women's reproductive health status are increasingly needed. However, many data systems collect only limited information on women's reproductive health, thereby hampering the appraisal of risk and protective factors across the life span. One way to expand the study of women's health with minimal investment in time and resources is to integrate questions on reproductive health into existing surveillance systems. In 2013, previously validated questions on women's self-reported reproductive history, use of contraception, and infertility were added to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) by seven states (Connecticut, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Ohio, Texas, and Utah); all female respondents aged 18-50 years were included in the pool of respondents for these state-added questions. Of 8691 women who completed the questions, 13.2% reported ever experiencing infertility and 59.8% of those at risk for unintended pregnancy reported using contraception at last intercourse. The information garnered from the state-added reproductive health questions can be augmented with the BRFSS core questions on health-related risk behaviors, chronic conditions, and use of preventive services. Expanding existing data collection systems with supplemental questions on women's reproductive health can provide important information on risk factors and outcomes that may not be available from other sources. PMID:27227657

  19. 77 FR 29391 - An Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Decisions on Plant-Specific...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-05-17

    ... COMMISSION An Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Decisions on Plant-Specific Changes... Assessment in Risk- Informed Decisions on Plant-Specific Changes to the Licensing Basis,'' (proposed Revision 3 of Regulatory Guide 1.174); DG-1286, ``An Approach for Plant-Specific,...

  20. Mediterranean Storms: An Integrated Approach of Risk Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karageorgou, H.; Riza, E.; Linos, A.; Papanikolaou, D.

    2010-09-01

    Disaster by UN definition is "a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society, involving widespread human, material, economic, or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using only its own resources". Mediterranean storms induce flash floods caused by excessive amounts of rainfall within a short lasting period of time. The intensity and duration of precipitation, region geomorphology, urbanization and different governmental emergency management structures trigger different consequences between Mediterranean countries. The integrated approach in management of storm risk represents a holistic perspective including interactions between government, science and technology institutions, developing agencies, private sector, NGOs and public. Local authorities and national government are responsible for the design, preparation and decision on storm risk management policies and strategies considering scientific risk identifying, assessing and understanding. Efficient governance management requires satisfied response to early warning systems, functionality of the affected systems upon which society depends and appropriate focus on variable interest, beliefs, values and ideologies between social groups. Also an appropriate balancing of benefits and costs in an efficient and equitable manner is important for the governance risk management. Natural sciences in corporation with the engineering science have developed effective early prediction, warning and monitoring systems on storm and flood risk. The health sciences use prediction systems for health related hazards and consequences and the social sciences research estimates the human resilience during disasters and the factors which affect and determine the human behavior. Also social sciences survey the response of public to early warning messages, the appropriate communicative methods to distributing messages and mechanisms to improve public

  1. Technology readiness and risk assessments: A new approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mankins, John C.

    2009-11-01

    Systems that depend upon the application of new technologies inevitably face three major challenges during development: performance, schedule and budget. Technology research and development (R&D) programs are typically advocated based on argument that these investments will substantially reduce the uncertainty in all three of these dimensions of project management. However, if early R&D is implemented poorly, then the new system developments that plan to employ the resulting advanced technologies will suffer from cost overruns, schedule delays and the steady erosion of initial performance objectives. It is often critical for senior management to be able to determine which of these two paths is more likely—and to respond accordingly. The challenge for system and technology managers is to be able to make clear, well-documented assessments of technology readiness and risks, and to do so at key points in the life cycle of the program. Several approaches have been used to evaluate technology maturity and risk in order to better anticipate later system development risks. The "technology readiness levels" (TRLs), developed by NASA, are one discipline-independent, programmatic figure of merit (FOM) that allows more effective assessment of, and communication regarding the maturity of new technologies. Another broadly used management tool is of the "risk matrix", which depends upon a graphical representation of uncertainty and consequences. However, for the most part these various methodologies have had no explicit interrelationship. This paper will examine past uses of current methods to improve R&D outcomes and will highlight some of the limitations that can arise. In this context, a new concept for the integration of the TRL methodology, and the concept of the "risk matrix" will be described. The paper will conclude with observations concerning prospective future directions for the important new concept of integrated "technology readiness and risk assessments".

  2. The Prediflood database. A new tool for an integrated approach to historical floods in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula), AD 1033-2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barriendos, Mariano; Carles Balasch Solanes, Josep; Tuset, Jordi; Lluís Ruiz-Bellet, Josep

    2014-05-01

    Available information of historical floods can improve the management of hydroclimatic hazards. This approach is useful in ungauged basins or with short instrumental data series. On the other hand, flood risk is increasing due to both the expansion of human land occupation and the modification of rainfall patterns in the present global climatic change scenario. Within the Prediflood Project, we have designed an integrated database of historical floods in Catalonia with the aim to feed data to: 1) Meteorological reconstruction and modelling. 2) Hydrological and hydraulic reconstruction. 3) Human impacts evaluation, of these floods. The firsts steps of the database design focus on spatial location and on the quality of the data sources in three levels: 1) Historical documentary sources and newspapers contemporary with the floods. 2) Local historiography. 3) Technical reports. After the application of historiographical methodologies, more than 2300 flood records have been added to the database so far. Despite the completion of the database is still a work in progress, the firsts analyses are already underway and focus on the largest floods with catastrophic effects simultaneously on more than 15 catchments: November 1617, October 1787, September 1842, May 1853, September 1874, January 1898, October 1907, October 1940, September 1962, November 1982, October 1994 and others.

  3. Consumption of added sugars from liquid but not solid sources predicts impaired glucose homeostasis and insulin resistance among youth at risk of obesity.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jiawei; Light, Kelly; Henderson, Mélanie; O'Loughlin, Jennifer; Mathieu, Marie-Eve; Paradis, Gilles; Gray-Donald, Katherine

    2014-01-01

    Little is known about longitudinal associations between added sugar consumption (solid and liquid sources) and glucose-insulin homeostasis among youth. Caucasian children (8-10 y) with at least one obese biological parent were recruited in the QUébec Adipose and Lifestyle InvesTigation in Youth (QUALITY) cohort (n = 630) and followed-up 2 y later (n = 564). Added sugars were assessed by 3 24-h dietary recalls at baseline. Two-year changes were examined in multivariate linear regression models, adjusting for baseline level, age, sex, Tanner stage, energy intake, fat mass (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry), and physical activity (7 d accelerometer). Added sugar intake in either liquid or solid sources was not related to changes in adiposity measures (fat mass, body mass index, or waist circumference). However, a higher consumption (10 g/d) of added sugars from liquid sources was associated with 0.04 mmol/L higher fasting glucose, 2.3 pmol/L higher fasting insulin, 0.1 unit higher homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and 0.4 unit lower Matsuda-insulin sensitivity index (Matsuda-ISI) in all participants (P < 0.01). No associations were observed with consumption of added sugars from solid sources. Overweight/obese children at baseline had greater increases in adiposity indicators, fasting insulin, and HOMA-IR and decreases in Matsuda-ISI during those 2 y than normal-weight children. Consumption of added sugars from liquid or solid sources was not associated with changes in adiposity, but liquid added sugars were a risk factor for the development of impaired glucose homeostasis and insulin resistance over 2 y among youth at risk of obesity. PMID:24198307

  4. Consumption of added sugars from liquid but not solid sources predicts impaired glucose homeostasis and insulin resistance among youth at risk of obesity.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jiawei; Light, Kelly; Henderson, Mélanie; O'Loughlin, Jennifer; Mathieu, Marie-Eve; Paradis, Gilles; Gray-Donald, Katherine

    2014-01-01

    Little is known about longitudinal associations between added sugar consumption (solid and liquid sources) and glucose-insulin homeostasis among youth. Caucasian children (8-10 y) with at least one obese biological parent were recruited in the QUébec Adipose and Lifestyle InvesTigation in Youth (QUALITY) cohort (n = 630) and followed-up 2 y later (n = 564). Added sugars were assessed by 3 24-h dietary recalls at baseline. Two-year changes were examined in multivariate linear regression models, adjusting for baseline level, age, sex, Tanner stage, energy intake, fat mass (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry), and physical activity (7 d accelerometer). Added sugar intake in either liquid or solid sources was not related to changes in adiposity measures (fat mass, body mass index, or waist circumference). However, a higher consumption (10 g/d) of added sugars from liquid sources was associated with 0.04 mmol/L higher fasting glucose, 2.3 pmol/L higher fasting insulin, 0.1 unit higher homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and 0.4 unit lower Matsuda-insulin sensitivity index (Matsuda-ISI) in all participants (P < 0.01). No associations were observed with consumption of added sugars from solid sources. Overweight/obese children at baseline had greater increases in adiposity indicators, fasting insulin, and HOMA-IR and decreases in Matsuda-ISI during those 2 y than normal-weight children. Consumption of added sugars from liquid or solid sources was not associated with changes in adiposity, but liquid added sugars were a risk factor for the development of impaired glucose homeostasis and insulin resistance over 2 y among youth at risk of obesity.

  5. Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots: Transition to a Regional Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lerner-Lam, A.; Chen, R.; Dilley, M.

    2005-12-01

    economic losses, are also limited. On one hand the data are adequate for general identification of areas of the globe that are at relatively higher single- or multiple-hazard risk than other areas. On the other hand they are inadequate for understanding the absolute levels of risk posed by any specific hazard or combination of hazards. Nevertheless it is possible to assess in general terms the exposure and potential magnitude of losses to people and their assets in these areas. Such information, although not ideal, can still be very useful for informing a range of disaster prevention and preparedness measures, including prioritization of resources, targeting of more localized and detailed risk assessments, implementation of risk-based disaster management and emergency response strategies, and development of long-term plans for poverty reduction and economic development. In addition to summarizing the results of the Hotspots Project, we discuss data collection issues and suggest methodological approaches for making the transition to more detailed regional and national studies. Preliminary results for several regional case studies will be presented.

  6. 77 FR 63763 - Regulatory Capital Rules: Standardized Approach for Risk-Weighted Assets; Market Discipline and...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-10-17

    ... Approach for Risk-Weighted Assets; Market Discipline and Disclosure Requirements; Initial Regulatory..., titled, ``Regulatory Capital Rules: Standardized Approach for Risk-Weighted Assets; Market Discipline and... weaknesses identified over recent years, including by incorporating certain international capital...

  7. Farms adaptation to changes in flood risk: a management approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pivot, Jean-Marc; Martin, Philippe

    2002-10-01

    Creating flood expansion areas e.g. for the protection of urban areas from flooding involves a localised increase in risk which may require farmers to be compensated for crop damage or other losses. With this in mind, the paper sets out the approach used to study the problem and gives results obtained from a survey of farms liable to flooding in central France. The approach is based on a study of decisions made by farmers in situations of uncertainty, using the concept of 'model of action'. The results show that damage caused to farming areas by flooding should be considered both at field level and at farm level. The damage caused to the field depends on the flood itself, the fixed characteristics of the field, and the plant species cultivated. However, the losses to the farm taken as a whole can differ considerably from those for the flooded field, due to 'knock-on' effects on farm operations which depend on the internal organization, the availability of production resources, and the farmer's objectives, both for the farm as a whole and for its individual enterprises. Three main strategies regarding possible flood events were identified. Reasons for choosing one of these include the way the farmer perceives the risk and the size of the area liable to flooding. Finally, the formalisation of farm system management in the face of uncertainty, especially due to flooding, enables compensation to be calculated for farmers whose land is affected by the creation of flood expansion areas.

  8. The US FDA and animal cloning: risk and regulatory approach.

    PubMed

    Rudenko, Larisa; Matheson, John C

    2007-01-01

    The Food and Drug Administration's (FDA's) Center for Veterinary Medicine issued a voluntary request to producers of livestock clones not to introduce food from clones or their progeny into commerce until the agency had assessed whether production of cattle, swine, sheep, or goats by somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT) posed any unique risks to the animal(s) involved in the process, humans, or other animals by consuming food from those animals, compared with any other assisted reproductive technology (ART) currently in use. Following a comprehensive review, no anomalies were observed in animals produced by cloning that have not also been observed in animals produced by other ARTs and natural mating. Further systematic review on the health of, and composition of meat and milk from, cattle, swine, and goat clones and the progeny of cattle and sheep did not result in the identification of any food-consumption hazards. The agency therefore concluded that food from cattle, swine, and goat clones was as safe to eat as food from animals of those species derived by conventional means. The agency also concluded that food from the progeny of the clone of any species normally consumed for food is as safe to eat as those animals. The article also describes the methodology used by the agency to analyze data and draw these conclusions, the plans the agency has proposed to manage any identified risks, and the risk communication approaches the agency has used.

  9. Economic context and pigeons' risk-taking: an integrative approach.

    PubMed

    Goldshmidt, J N; Fantino, E

    2004-02-27

    The present work tested pigeons' (Columba livia) risk sensitivity to changes in resource availability in the concurrent-chains choice procedure. Subjects were provided choices, generally between variable-ratio (VR) and fixed-ratio (FR) outcome schedules with equal or different mean values. Predictions from ecology's risk sensitivity, behavioral economic's rate maximization, and psychology's delay-reduction theory were contrasted under settings where budget was adversely affected by one of three manipulations in seven experiments: (1) session length was dramatically reduced; (2) choice-phase duration was substantially increased by increasing the response requirements in the choice phase, or (3) outcome duration was significantly increased by increasing the response requirements in the outcome phase while holding session length constant. Although preference measures were sensitive to every budget manipulation, the nature of the changes observed were dependent upon the manner in which resource availability was manipulated and the choice alternatives offered. For example, choice was affected in an opposite manner when budget was adversely altered by lengthening choice duration ("search time") as opposed to lengthening outcome duration ("handling time"). Findings revealed partial support for pigeons' sensitivity both to changes in budget and to changes in conditioned reinforcer value. The overall pattern of results thus favors an integrative approach to describing the effect of economic context on general risk sensitivity.

  10. Approach to Assessment of Risk Factors in Mild Hypertension

    PubMed Central

    Stuart, K. L.; Desai, Patricia; Lalsingh, Adella

    1974-01-01

    Criteria are urgently needed for the early detection of subjects with only mildly raised blood pressure who may be at high risk of developing the complications of hypertension. As a step towards the establishment of such criteria we have examined the association of certain possible “risk” factors—namely, x-ray evidence of cardiac enlargement, high serum cholesterol levels, effort pain, E.C.G. abnormalities, and high systolic blood pressure—with fatal or morbid endpoints in a five-year follow-up study of subjects whose diastolic pressure had been found initially to be between 95 and 114 mm Hg. The index group consisted of 22 patients in whom these end-points occurred. They comprised death from cardiovascular disease, clinical or E.C.G. deterioration, and either an increase in diastolic pressure of at least 10 mm Hg or a diastolic pressure of 115 mm Hg or both. The control group consisted of 22 subjects chosen at random from other respondents with the same range of diastolic pressures and the same age and sex distribution. “Any two or more” of the possible risk factors examined were found to occur significantly more often in the index group than in the controls, suggesting a possible approach to the early detection of high-risk subjects. The value of longterm studies along these lines and the urgent need for them are emphasized. PMID:4275518

  11. A risk-based approach to liquid effluent monitoring

    SciTech Connect

    Hull, L.C.

    1995-10-01

    DOE Order 5400.1 identifies six objectives of a liquid effluent monitoring program. A strategy is proposed that meets these objective in one of two ways: (1) by showing that effluent concentrations are below concentration limits set by permits or are below concentrations that could cause environmental problems or (2) by showing that concentrations in effluent have not changed from a period when treatment processes were in control and there were no unplanned releases. The intensity of liquid effluent monitoring should be graded to the importance of the source being monitored. This can be accomplished by determining the risk posed by the source. A definition of risk is presented that defines risk in terms of the statistical probability of exceeding a release limit and the time available to recover from an exceedance of a release limit. Three examples are presented that show this approach to grading an effluent monitoring program can be implemented at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory and will reduce monitoring requirements.

  12. Integrated approach for coastal hazards and risks in Sri Lanka

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcin, M.; Desprats, J. F.; Fontaine, M.; Pedreros, R.; Attanayake, N.; Fernando, S.; Siriwardana, C. H. E. R.; de Silva, U.; Poisson, B.

    2008-06-01

    The devastating impact of the tsunami of 26 December 2004 on the shores of the Indian Ocean recalled the importance of knowledge and the taking into account of coastal hazards. Sri Lanka was one of the countries most affected by this tsunami (e.g. 30 000 dead, 1 million people homeless and 70% of the fishing fleet destroyed). Following this tsunami, as part of the French post-tsunami aid, a project to establish a Geographical Information System (GIS) on coastal hazards and risks was funded. This project aims to define, at a pilot site, a methodology for multiple coastal hazards assessment that might be useful for the post-tsunami reconstruction and for development planning. This methodology could be applied to the whole coastline of Sri Lanka. The multi-hazard approach deals with very different coastal processes in terms of dynamics as well as in terms of return period. The first elements of this study are presented here. We used a set of tools integrating a GIS, numerical simulations and risk scenario modelling. While this action occurred in response to the crisis caused by the tsunami, it was decided to integrate other coastal hazards into the study. Although less dramatic than the tsunami these remain responsible for loss of life and damage. Furthermore, the establishment of such a system could not ignore the longer-term effects of climate change on coastal hazards in Sri Lanka. This GIS integrates the physical and demographic data available in Sri Lanka that is useful for assessing the coastal hazards and risks. In addition, these data have been used in numerical modelling of the waves generated during periods of monsoon as well as for the December 2004 tsunami. Risk scenarios have also been assessed for test areas and validated by field data acquired during the project. The results obtained from the models can be further integrated into the GIS and contribute to its enrichment and to help in better assessment and mitigation of these risks. The coastal-hazards-and-risks

  13. Risk-Based Probabilistic Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tong, Michael T.

    2002-01-01

    In an era of shrinking development budgets and resources, where there is also an emphasis on reducing the product development cycle, the role of system assessment, performed in the early stages of an engine development program, becomes very critical to the successful development of new aeropropulsion systems. A reliable system assessment not only helps to identify the best propulsion system concept among several candidates, it can also identify which technologies are worth pursuing. This is particularly important for advanced aeropropulsion technology development programs, which require an enormous amount of resources. In the current practice of deterministic, or point-design, approaches, the uncertainties of design variables are either unaccounted for or accounted for by safety factors. This could often result in an assessment with unknown and unquantifiable reliability. Consequently, it would fail to provide additional insight into the risks associated with the new technologies, which are often needed by decision makers to determine the feasibility and return-on-investment of a new aircraft engine. In this work, an alternative approach based on the probabilistic method was described for a comprehensive assessment of an aeropropulsion system. The statistical approach quantifies the design uncertainties inherent in a new aeropropulsion system and their influences on engine performance. Because of this, it enhances the reliability of a system assessment. A technical assessment of a wave-rotor-enhanced gas turbine engine was performed to demonstrate the methodology. The assessment used probability distributions to account for the uncertainties that occur in component efficiencies and flows and in mechanical design variables. The approach taken in this effort was to integrate the thermodynamic cycle analysis embedded in the computer code NEPP (NASA Engine Performance Program) and the engine weight analysis embedded in the computer code WATE (Weight Analysis of Turbine

  14. An Entropy Approach to Disclosure Risk Assessment: Lessons from Real Applications and Simulated Domains

    PubMed Central

    Airoldi, Edoardo M.; Bai, Xue; Malin, Bradley A.

    2011-01-01

    leveraging the statistical characteristics of a visit distribution, as opposed to person-level data. It is computationally efficient and superior to existing risk assessment methods, which rely on ad hoc assessment that are often computationally expensive and unreliable. We evaluate our approach on a range of location access patterns in simulated environments. Our results demonstrate the approach is effective at estimating trail disclosure risks and the amount of self-information contained in a distributed system is one of the main driving factors. PMID:21647242

  15. Managing the risk of uncertain threshold responses: comparison of robust, optimum, and precautionary approaches.

    PubMed

    Lempert, Robert J; Collins, Myles T

    2007-08-01

    Many commentators have suggested the need for new decision analysis approaches to better manage systems with deeply uncertain, poorly characterized risks. Most notably, policy challenges such as abrupt climate change involve potential nonlinear or threshold responses where both the triggering level and subsequent system response are poorly understood. This study uses a simple computer simulation model to compare several alternative frameworks for decision making under uncertainty -- optimal expected utility, the precautionary principle, and three different approaches to robust decision making -- for addressing the challenge of adding pollution to a lake without triggering unwanted and potentially irreversible eutrophication. The three robust decision approaches -- trading some optimal performance for less sensitivity to assumptions, satisficing over a wide range of futures, and keeping options open -- are found to identify similar strategies as the most robust choice. This study also suggests that these robust decision approaches offer a quantitative, decision analytic framework that captures the spirit of the precautionary principle while addressing some of its shortcomings. Finally, this study finds that robust strategies may be preferable to optimum strategies when the uncertainty is sufficiently deep and the set of alternative policy options is sufficiently rich.

  16. Current approaches to cyanotoxin risk assessment and risk management around the globe

    PubMed Central

    Ibelings, Bas W.; Backer, Lorraine C.; Kardinaal, W. Edwin A.; Chorus, Ingrid

    2015-01-01

    Toxic cyanobacteria became more widely recognized as a potential health hazard in the 1990s, and in 1998 the World Health Organization (WHO) first published a provisional Guideline Value of 1 μg L−1 for microcystin-LR in drinking-water. In this publication we compare risk assessment and risk management of toxic cyanobacteria in 17 countries across all five continents. We focus on the three main (oral) exposure vehicles to cyanotoxins: drinking-water, water related recreational and freshwater seafood. Most countries have implemented the provisional WHO Guideline Value, some as legally binding standard, to ensure the distribution of safe drinking-water with respect to microcystins. Regulation, however, also needs to address the possible presence of a wide range of other cyanotoxins and bioactive compounds, for which no guideline values can be derived due to insufficient toxicological data. The presence of microcystins (commonly expressed as microcystin-LR equivalents) may be used as proxy for overall guidance on risk management, but this simplification may miss certain risks, for instance from dissolved fractions of cylindrospermopsin and cyanobacterial neurotoxins. An alternative approach, often taken for risk assessment and management in recreational waters, is to regulate cyanobacterial presence – as cell numbers or biomass – rather than individual toxins. Here, many countries have implemented a two or three tier alert level system with incremental severity. These systems define the levels where responses are switched from Surveillance to Alert and finally to Action Mode and they specify the short-term actions that follow. Surface bloom formation is commonly judged to be a significant risk because of the elevated concentration of microcystins in a scum. Countries have based their derivations of legally binding standards, guideline values, maximally allowed concentrations (or limits named otherwise) on very similar scientific methodology, but underlying

  17. A risk-based approach to scheduling audits.

    PubMed

    Rönninger, Stephan; Holmes, Malcolm

    2009-01-01

    The manufacture and supply of pharmaceutical products can be a very complex operation. Companies may purchase a wide variety of materials, from active pharmaceutical ingredients to packaging materials, from "in company" suppliers or from third parties. They may also purchase or contract a number of services such as analysis, data management, audit, among others. It is very important that these materials and services are of the requisite quality in order that patient safety and company reputation are adequately protected. Such quality requirements are ongoing throughout the product life cycle. In recent years, assurance of quality has been derived via audit of the supplier or service provider and by using periodic audits, for example, annually or at least once every 5 years. In the past, companies may have used an audit only for what they considered to be "key" materials or services and used testing on receipt, for example, as their quality assurance measure for "less important" supplies. Such approaches changed as a result of pressure from both internal sources and regulators to the time-driven audit for all suppliers and service providers. Companies recognised that eventually they would be responsible for the quality of the supplied product or service and audit, although providing only a "snapshot in time" seemed a convenient way of demonstrating that they were meeting their obligations. Problems, however, still occur with the supplied product or service and will usually be more frequent from certain suppliers. Additionally, some third-party suppliers will no longer accept routine audits from individual companies, as the overall audit load can exceed one external audit per working day. Consequently a different model is needed for assessing supplier quality. This paper presents a risk-based approach to creating an audit plan and for scheduling the frequency and depth of such audits. The approach is based on the principles and process of the Quality Risk Management

  18. Novel Molecular Imaging Approaches to Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Risk Stratification

    PubMed Central

    Toczek, Jakub; Meadows, Judith L.; Sadeghi, Mehran M.

    2015-01-01

    Selection of patients for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair is currently based on aneurysm size, growth rate and symptoms. Molecular imaging of biological processes associated with aneurysm growth and rupture, e.g., inflammation and matrix remodeling, could improve patient risk stratification and lead to a reduction in AAA morbidity and mortality. 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) and ultrasmall superparamagnetic particles of iron oxide (USPIO) magnetic resonance imaging are two novel approaches to AAA imaging evaluated in clinical trials. A variety of other tracers, including those that target inflammatory cells and proteolytic enzymes (e.g., integrin αvβ3 and matrix metalloproteinases), have proven effective in preclinical models of AAA and show great potential for clinical translation. PMID:26763279

  19. Method ruggedness studies incorporating a risk based approach: a tutorial.

    PubMed

    Borman, Phil J; Chatfield, Marion J; Damjanov, Ivana; Jackson, Patrick

    2011-10-10

    This tutorial explains how well thought-out application of design and analysis methodology, combined with risk assessment, leads to improved assessment of method ruggedness. The authors define analytical method ruggedness as an experimental evaluation of noise factors such as analyst, instrument or stationary phase batch. Ruggedness testing is usually performed upon transfer of a method to another laboratory, however, it can also be employed during method development when an assessment of the method's inherent variability is required. The use of a ruggedness study provides a more rigorous method for assessing method precision than a simple comparative intermediate precision study which is typically performed as part of method validation. Prior to designing a ruggedness study, factors that are likely to have a significant effect on the performance of the method should be identified (via a risk assessment) and controlled where appropriate. Noise factors that are not controlled are considered for inclusion in the study. The purpose of the study should be to challenge the method and identify whether any noise factors significantly affect the method's precision. The results from the study are firstly used to identify any special cause variability due to specific attributable circumstances. Secondly, common cause variability is apportioned to determine which factors are responsible for most of the variability. The total common cause variability can then be used to assess whether the method's precision requirements are achievable. The approach used to design and analyse method ruggedness studies will be covered in this tutorial using a real example.

  20. Promoting Healthy Outcomes Among Youth with Multiple Risks: Innovative Approaches

    PubMed Central

    Greenberg, Mark T.; Lippold, Melissa A.

    2015-01-01

    Adolescent behavior problems such as substance use, antisocial behavior problems, and mental health problems have extremely high social costs and lead to overburdened mental health and juvenile justice systems in the United States and Europe. The prevalence of these problems is substantial, and at-risk youth often present with a combination of concerns. An understanding of risk and protective factors at multiple levels, including the child, family, peer, school, and community, has influenced intervention development. At the individual and family levels, the most effective and cost-effective programs work intensively with youth and their families or use individual and group cognitive-behavioral approaches. However, there is a paucity of careful studies of effective policies and programs in the juvenile justice system. Research is needed that focuses on adoption, financing, implementation, and sustainable use of evidence-based programs in public service systems. In addition, the field needs to understand better for whom current programs are most effective to create the next generation of more effective and efficient programs. PMID:23297659

  1. Promoting healthy outcomes among youth with multiple risks: innovative approaches.

    PubMed

    Greenberg, Mark T; Lippold, Melissa A

    2013-01-01

    Adolescent behavior problems such as substance use, antisocial behavior problems, and mental health problems have extremely high social costs and lead to overburdened mental health and juvenile justice systems in the United States and Europe. The prevalence of these problems is substantial, and at-risk youth often present with a combination of concerns. An understanding of risk and protective factors at multiple levels, including the child, family, peer, school, and community, has influenced intervention development. At the individual and family levels, the most effective and cost-effective programs work intensively with youth and their families or use individual and group cognitive-behavioral approaches. However, there is a paucity of careful studies of effective policies and programs in the juvenile justice system. Research is needed that focuses on adoption, financing, implementation, and sustainable use of evidence-based programs in public service systems. In addition, the field needs to understand better for whom current programs are most effective to create the next generation of more effective and efficient programs.

  2. Assessing risk factors for dental caries: a statistical modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Trottini, Mario; Bossù, Maurizio; Corridore, Denise; Ierardo, Gaetano; Luzzi, Valeria; Saccucci, Matteo; Polimeni, Antonella

    2015-01-01

    The problem of identifying potential determinants and predictors of dental caries is of key importance in caries research and it has received considerable attention in the scientific literature. From the methodological side, a broad range of statistical models is currently available to analyze dental caries indices (DMFT, dmfs, etc.). These models have been applied in several studies to investigate the impact of different risk factors on the cumulative severity of dental caries experience. However, in most of the cases (i) these studies focus on a very specific subset of risk factors; and (ii) in the statistical modeling only few candidate models are considered and model selection is at best only marginally addressed. As a result, our understanding of the robustness of the statistical inferences with respect to the choice of the model is very limited; the richness of the set of statistical models available for analysis in only marginally exploited; and inferences could be biased due the omission of potentially important confounding variables in the model's specification. In this paper we argue that these limitations can be overcome considering a general class of candidate models and carefully exploring the model space using standard model selection criteria and measures of global fit and predictive performance of the candidate models. Strengths and limitations of the proposed approach are illustrated with a real data set. In our illustration the model space contains more than 2.6 million models, which require inferences to be adjusted for 'optimism'.

  3. Toward a national health risk management approach in Australia.

    PubMed

    O'Donnell, Carol

    2002-01-01

    There has been increasing international consensus about the importance of competition for achieving national growth and community well-being. The Australian government accordingly has introduced policies to promote such competition. Major legislative review and many public inquiries have assisted implementation of national competition policy and the development of national goals and standards related to international agreements to promote health and sustainable development. Since the 1980s, Australia has had legislation that requires the identification and control of health risks arising at work. The management structures necessary for coordinated delivery of national programs designed for effective identification and control of health risks arising in communities to achieve national health and development goals are still being developed, however. Major difficulties related to this development are discussed. National health development programs should be approached primarily through establishment of regional partnerships between bodies responsible for managing community health, local government, and employment placement, in consultation with other relevant organizations and the community. Related research and evaluation programs are required. PMID:11905388

  4. Hairy AdS solitons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anabalón, Andrés; Astefanesei, Dumitru; Choque, David

    2016-11-01

    We construct exact hairy AdS soliton solutions in Einstein-dilaton gravity theory. We examine their thermodynamic properties and discuss the role of these solutions for the existence of first order phase transitions for hairy black holes. The negative energy density associated to hairy AdS solitons can be interpreted as the Casimir energy that is generated in the dual filed theory when the fermions are antiperiodic on the compact coordinate.

  5. General prevention and risk minimization in LCA: a combined approach.

    PubMed

    Sleeswijk, Anneke Wegener

    2003-01-01

    Methods for life cycle assessment of products (LCA) are most often based on the general prevention principle, as opposed to the risk minimization principle. Here, the desirability and feasibility of a combined approach are discussed, along with the conditions for elaboration in the framework of LCA methodology, and the consequences for LCA practice. A combined approach provides a separate assessment of above and below threshold pollution, offering the possibility to combat above threshold impacts with priority. Spatial differentiation in fate, exposure, and effect modelling is identified to play a central role in the implementation. The collection of region-specific data turns out to be the most elaborate requirement for the implementation in both methodology and practice. A methodological framework for the construction of characterization factors is provided. Along with spatial differentiation of existing parameters, two newly introduced spatial parameters play a key role: the sensitivity factor and the threshold factor. The practicability of the proposed procedure is illustrated by an example of its application. Providing a reasonable data availability, the development of separate LCA characterization factors for the respective assessment of pollution levels above and below environmental threshold values seems to be a feasible task that may add to LCA credibility. PMID:12635961

  6. Bayesian approach for flexible modeling of semicompeting risks data.

    PubMed

    Han, Baoguang; Yu, Menggang; Dignam, James J; Rathouz, Paul J

    2014-12-20

    Semicompeting risks data arise when two types of events, non-terminal and terminal, are observed. When the terminal event occurs first, it censors the non-terminal event, but not vice versa. To account for possible dependent censoring of the non-terminal event by the terminal event and to improve prediction of the terminal event using the non-terminal event information, it is crucial to model their association properly. Motivated by a breast cancer clinical trial data analysis, we extend the well-known illness-death models to allow flexible random effects to capture heterogeneous association structures in the data. Our extension also represents a generalization of the popular shared frailty models that usually assume that the non-terminal event does not affect the hazards of the terminal event beyond a frailty term. We propose a unified Bayesian modeling approach that can utilize existing software packages for both model fitting and individual-specific event prediction. The approach is demonstrated via both simulation studies and a breast cancer data set analysis. PMID:25274445

  7. Review of various approaches for assessing public health risks in regulatory decision making: choosing the right approach for the problem.

    PubMed

    Dearfield, Kerry L; Hoelzer, Karin; Kause, Janell R

    2014-08-01

    Stakeholders in the public health risk analysis community can possess differing opinions about what is meant by "conduct a risk assessment." In reality, there is no one-size-fits-all risk assessment that can address all public health issues, problems, and regulatory needs. Although several international and national organizations (e.g., Codex Alimentarius Commission, Office International des Epizooties, Food and Agricultural Organization, World Health Organization, National Research Council, and European Food Safety Authority) have addressed this issue, confusion remains. The type and complexity of a risk assessment must reflect the risk management needs to appropriately inform a regulatory or nonregulatory decision, i.e., a risk assessment is ideally "fit for purpose" and directly applicable to risk management issues of concern. Frequently however, there is a lack of understanding by those not completely familiar with risk assessment regarding the specific utility of different approaches for assessing public health risks. This unfamiliarity can unduly hamper the acceptance of risk assessment results by risk managers and may reduce the usefulness of such results for guiding public health policies, practices, and operations. Differences in interpretation of risk assessment terminology further complicate effective communication among risk assessors, risk managers, and stakeholders. This article provides an overview of the types of risk assessments commonly conducted, with examples primarily from the food and agricultural sectors, and a discussion of the utility and limitations of these specific approaches for assessing public health risks. Clarification of the risk management issues and corresponding risk assessment design needs during the formative stages of the risk analysis process is a key step for ensuring that the most appropriate assessment of risk is developed and used to guide risk management decisions. PMID:25198609

  8. Risk evaluation of uranium mining: A geochemical inverse modelling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rillard, J.; Zuddas, P.; Scislewski, A.

    2011-12-01

    It is well known that uranium extraction operations can increase risks linked to radiation exposure. The toxicity of uranium and associated heavy metals is the main environmental concern regarding exploitation and processing of U-ore. In areas where U mining is planned, a careful assessment of toxic and radioactive element concentrations is recommended before the start of mining activities. A background evaluation of harmful elements is important in order to prevent and/or quantify future water contamination resulting from possible migration of toxic metals coming from ore and waste water interaction. Controlled leaching experiments were carried out to investigate processes of ore and waste (leached ore) degradation, using samples from the uranium exploitation site located in Caetité-Bahia, Brazil. In experiments in which the reaction of waste with water was tested, we found that the water had low pH and high levels of sulphates and aluminium. On the other hand, in experiments in which ore was tested, the water had a chemical composition comparable to natural water found in the region of Caetité. On the basis of our experiments, we suggest that waste resulting from sulphuric acid treatment can induce acidification and salinization of surface and ground water. For this reason proper storage of waste is imperative. As a tool to evaluate the risks, a geochemical inverse modelling approach was developed to estimate the water-mineral interaction involving the presence of toxic elements. We used a method earlier described by Scislewski and Zuddas 2010 (Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 74, 6996-7007) in which the reactive surface area of mineral dissolution can be estimated. We found that the reactive surface area of rock parent minerals is not constant during time but varies according to several orders of magnitude in only two months of interaction. We propose that parent mineral heterogeneity and particularly, neogenic phase formation may explain the observed variation of the

  9. The Evidence for a Risk-Based Approach to Australian Higher Education Regulation and Quality Assurance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edwards, Fleur

    2012-01-01

    This paper explores the nascent field of risk management in higher education, which is of particular relevance in Australia currently, as the Commonwealth Government implements its plans for a risk-based approach to higher education regulation and quality assurance. The literature outlines the concept of risk management and risk-based approaches…

  10. A Biomechanical Approach to Assessing Hip Fracture Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ellman, Rachel

    2009-01-01

    Bone loss in microgravity is well documented, but it is difficult to quantify how declines in bone mineral density (BMD) contribute to an astronaut's overall risk of fracture upon return. This study uses a biomechanical approach to assessing hip fracture risk, or Factor of Risk (Phi), which is defined as the ratio of applied load to bone strength. All long-duration NASA astronauts from Expeditions 1-18 were included in this study (n=25), while crewmembers who flew twice (n=2) were treated as separate subjects. Bone strength was estimated based on an empirical relationship between areal BMD at the hip, as measured by DXA, and failure load, as determined by mechanical testing of cadaver femora. Fall load during a sideways fall was calculated from a previously developed biomechanical model, which takes into account body weight, height, gender, and soft tissue thickness overlying the lateral aspect of the hip that serves to attenuate the impact force. While no statistical analyses have been performed yet, preliminary results show that males in this population have a higher FOR than females, with a post- flight Phi of 0.87 and 0.36, respectively. FOR increases 5.1% from preflight to postflight, while only one subject crossed the fracture "threshold" of Phi = 1, for a total of 2 subjects with a postflight Phi > 1. These results suggest that men may be at greater risk for hip fracture due largely in part to their relatively thin soft tissue padding as compared to women, since soft tissue thickness has the highest correlation (R(exp 2)= .53) with FOR of all subject-specific parameters. Future work will investigate changes in FOR during recovery to see if baseline risk levels are restored upon return to 1-g activity. While dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is the most commonly used clinical measure of bone health, it fails to provide compartment-specific information that is useful in assessing changes to bone quality as a result of microgravity exposure. Peripheral

  11. Inclusion of bioaccumulation in environmental risk assessment: An integrated approach

    SciTech Connect

    Kloepper-Sams, P.J.; Cowan, C.E.; Larson, R.J.; Versteeg, D.J.

    1995-12-31

    Historically, the potential to bioaccumulate has been ignored in risk assessments or assessed in isolation. Bioaccumulation can be included in an integrated approach by posing two questions. (1) Is the duration of acute aquatic testing sufficient to identify effects due to direct exposure? This can be addressed by comparing T95 (time to reach 95% of steady state) with test duration. (2) Do dietary sources contribute substantially to exposure; is so, will this affect organisms higher in the food web? This can be addressed in stages. (1) A suitable QSAR can be employed to estimate the Bioconcentration Factor (BCF). Because aquatic dietary exposure to non-ionic, poorly metabolized organics is not significant for compounds with log K{sub ow} below {approximately}4.5--5, only compounds with BCF > 1,000 (log K{sub ow} {approximately}4.3) are further evaluated. (2) Predicted BCFs may be refined by measuring the predictive parameter (e.g., K{sub ow}) or the BCF. (3) If the ``parent`` BCF remains > 1,000, a food chain model is employed to derive bioaccumulation factors (BAF) which may be achieved in the food web of interest. The BAF is then combined with Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC) values to derive a PECoral or concentration available in prey. This is then compared with a Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC)oral for consumer organism(s). Mammalian toxicity databases on new and HVP existing chemicals may assist in deriving the PNECoral. (4) Further refinement of the PECoral or PNECoral may be needed. Mitigating circumstances such as metabolism and reduced bioavailability must also be considered. Such an approach may be necessary for a subset of chemicals and would be tailored dependent on chemical use, release, environmental fate -- especially persistence -- and distribution.

  12. Value Added?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    UCLA IDEA, 2012

    2012-01-01

    Value added measures (VAM) uses changes in student test scores to determine how much "value" an individual teacher has "added" to student growth during the school year. Some policymakers, school districts, and educational advocates have applauded VAM as a straightforward measure of teacher effectiveness: the better a teacher, the better students…

  13. An assessment of national risk: General concepts and overall approach. [carbon fiber utilization in commercial aviation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kalelkar, A. S.

    1979-01-01

    The analysis of risk presented by carbon fiber utilization in commercial aviation is reported. The discussion is presented in three parts: (1) general concepts; (2) overall approach; and (3) risk evaluation and perspective.

  14. Effects of ozone on southwestern forests -- a risk assessment approach

    SciTech Connect

    Bytnerowicz, A.; Arbaugh, M.J.; Miller, P.R.; McBride, J.R.; Takemoto, B.

    1998-12-31

    A comprehensive analysis of air pollution effects in the San Bernardino Mountains must be conducted in consideration of a complex web of resource values and management issues. Ecological risk assessment (EcRA) is one approach that could be used to assess the likelihood that adverse effects are occurring, or may be occurring as the result of one or more air pollution stressors. The use of EcRA to formulate ecosystem management plans to protect resources in National Forests is an important challenge facing land managers in southern California. Some of the basic elements that need to be considered in the development of a forest plan for the San Bernardino Mountains are discussed in the context of a general model of ecosystem response. Future efforts to sustain integrity and productivity of these forests will require increasing levels of cooperation between resource managers, land use planners and other stakeholders, to establish and maintain data bases that can serve as the foundation for making timely stewardship decisions.

  15. Probabilistic Risk-Based Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment Developed

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tong, Michael T.

    2001-01-01

    In an era of shrinking development budgets and resources, where there is also an emphasis on reducing the product development cycle, the role of system assessment, performed in the early stages of an engine development program, becomes very critical to the successful development of new aeropropulsion systems. A reliable system assessment not only helps to identify the best propulsion system concept among several candidates, it can also identify which technologies are worth pursuing. This is particularly important for advanced aeropropulsion technology development programs, which require an enormous amount of resources. In the current practice of deterministic, or point-design, approaches, the uncertainties of design variables are either unaccounted for or accounted for by safety factors. This could often result in an assessment with unknown and unquantifiable reliability. Consequently, it would fail to provide additional insight into the risks associated with the new technologies, which are often needed by decisionmakers to determine the feasibility and return-on-investment of a new aircraft engine.

  16. A risk-based approach to flammable gas detector spacing.

    PubMed

    Defriend, Stephen; Dejmek, Mark; Porter, Leisa; Deshotels, Bob; Natvig, Bernt

    2008-11-15

    Flammable gas detectors allow an operating company to address leaks before they become serious, by automatically alarming and by initiating isolation and safe venting. Without effective gas detection, there is very limited defense against a flammable gas leak developing into a fire or explosion that could cause loss of life or escalate to cascading failures of nearby vessels, piping, and equipment. While it is commonly recognized that some gas detectors are needed in a process plant containing flammable gas or volatile liquids, there is usually a question of how many are needed. The areas that need protection can be determined by dispersion modeling from potential leak sites. Within the areas that must be protected, the spacing of detectors (or alternatively, number of detectors) should be based on risk. Detector design can be characterized by spacing criteria, which is convenient for design - or alternatively by number of detectors, which is convenient for cost reporting. The factors that influence the risk are site-specific, including process conditions, chemical composition, number of potential leak sites, piping design standards, arrangement of plant equipment and structures, design of isolation and depressurization systems, and frequency of detector testing. Site-specific factors such as those just mentioned affect the size of flammable gas cloud that must be detected (within a specified probability) by the gas detection system. A probability of detection must be specified that gives a design with a tolerable risk of fires and explosions. To determine the optimum spacing of detectors, it is important to consider the probability that a detector will fail at some time and be inoperative until replaced or repaired. A cost-effective approach is based on the combined risk from a representative selection of leakage scenarios, rather than a worst-case evaluation. This means that probability and severity of leak consequences must be evaluated together. In marine and

  17. Uncertainty characterization approaches for risk assessment of DBPs in drinking water: a review.

    PubMed

    Chowdhury, Shakhawat; Champagne, Pascale; McLellan, P James

    2009-04-01

    The management of risk from disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water has become a critical issue over the last three decades. The areas of concern for risk management studies include (i) human health risk from DBPs, (ii) disinfection performance, (iii) technical feasibility (maintenance, management and operation) of treatment and disinfection approaches, and (iv) cost. Human health risk assessment is typically considered to be the most important phase of the risk-based decision-making or risk management studies. The factors associated with health risk assessment and other attributes are generally prone to considerable uncertainty. Probabilistic and non-probabilistic approaches have both been employed to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment. The probabilistic approaches include sampling-based methods (typically Monte Carlo simulation and stratified sampling) and asymptotic (approximate) reliability analysis (first- and second-order reliability methods). Non-probabilistic approaches include interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and possibility theory. However, it is generally accepted that no single method is suitable for the entire spectrum of problems encountered in uncertainty analyses for risk assessment. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations. In this paper, the feasibility and limitations of different uncertainty analysis approaches are outlined for risk management studies of drinking water supply systems. The findings assist in the selection of suitable approaches for uncertainty analysis in risk management studies associated with DBPs and human health risk.

  18. Towards a systems approach to risk considerations for concurrent design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila; Oberto, Robert E.

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes the new process used by the Project Design Center at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory for the identification, assessment and communication of risk elements throughout the lifecycle of a mission design. This process includes a software tool, 'RAP' that collects and communicates risk information between the various designers and a 'risk expert' who mediates this process. The establishment of this process is an attempt towards the systematic consideration of risk in the design decision making process. Using this process, we are able to better keep track of the risks associated with the design decisions. Furthermore, it helps us develop better risk profiles for the studies under consideration. We aim to refine and expand the current process to enable more thorough risk analysis capabilities in the future.

  19. Approaches for derivation of environmental quality criteria for substances applied in risk assessment of discharges from offshore drilling operations.

    PubMed

    Altin, Dag; Frost, Tone Karin; Nilssen, Ingunn

    2008-04-01

    In order to achieve the offshore petroleum industries "zero harm" goal to the environment, the environmental impact factor for drilling discharges was developed as a tool to identify and quantify the environmental risks associated with disposal of drilling discharges to the marine environment. As an initial step in this work the main categories of substances associated with drilling discharges and assumed to contribute to toxic or nontoxic stress were identified and evaluated for inclusion in the risk assessment. The selection were based on the known toxicological properties of the substances, or the total amount discharged together with their potential for accumulation in the water column or sediments to levels that could be expected to cause toxic or nontoxic stress to the biota. Based on these criteria 3 categories of chemicals were identified for risk assessment the water column and sediments: Natural organic substances, metals, and drilling fluid chemicals. Several approaches for deriving the environmentally safe threshold concentrations as predicted no effect concentrations were evaluated in the process. For the water column consensus were reached for using the species sensitivity distribution approach for metals and the assessment factor approach for natural organic substances and added drilling chemicals. For the sediments the equilibrium partitioning approach was selected for all three categories of chemicals. The theoretically derived sediment quality criteria were compared to field-derived threshold effect values based on statistical approaches applied on sediment monitoring data from the Norwegian Continental Shelf. The basis for derivation of predicted no effect concentration values for drilling discharges should be consistent with the principles of environmental risk assessment as described in the Technical Guidance Document on Risk Assessment issued by the European Union.

  20. Approaches for derivation of environmental quality criteria for substances applied in risk assessment of discharges from offshore drilling operations.

    PubMed

    Altin, Dag; Frost, Tone Karin; Nilssen, Ingunn

    2008-04-01

    In order to achieve the offshore petroleum industries "zero harm" goal to the environment, the environmental impact factor for drilling discharges was developed as a tool to identify and quantify the environmental risks associated with disposal of drilling discharges to the marine environment. As an initial step in this work the main categories of substances associated with drilling discharges and assumed to contribute to toxic or nontoxic stress were identified and evaluated for inclusion in the risk assessment. The selection were based on the known toxicological properties of the substances, or the total amount discharged together with their potential for accumulation in the water column or sediments to levels that could be expected to cause toxic or nontoxic stress to the biota. Based on these criteria 3 categories of chemicals were identified for risk assessment the water column and sediments: Natural organic substances, metals, and drilling fluid chemicals. Several approaches for deriving the environmentally safe threshold concentrations as predicted no effect concentrations were evaluated in the process. For the water column consensus were reached for using the species sensitivity distribution approach for metals and the assessment factor approach for natural organic substances and added drilling chemicals. For the sediments the equilibrium partitioning approach was selected for all three categories of chemicals. The theoretically derived sediment quality criteria were compared to field-derived threshold effect values based on statistical approaches applied on sediment monitoring data from the Norwegian Continental Shelf. The basis for derivation of predicted no effect concentration values for drilling discharges should be consistent with the principles of environmental risk assessment as described in the Technical Guidance Document on Risk Assessment issued by the European Union. PMID:18232742

  1. Adding Industry and Occupation Questions to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System: New Opportunities in Public Health Surveillance

    PubMed Central

    Tolliver, Rickey; Bui, Alison Grace; Warner, Amy; Van Dyke, Mike

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Industry and occupation variables are overlooked in many public health surveillance efforts, yet they are useful for describing the burden and distribution of various public health diseases, behaviors, and conditions. This study is the first ever analysis of the Colorado Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) to describe chronic conditions and risk behaviors by occupation. It is intended to provide a new perspective on this existing data source and demonstrate the value of occupation as a core demographic variable for public health research, policy, and practice. Methods Two standardized employment questions were included in the 2012 Colorado BRFSS survey and administered to eligible survey respondents who were employed, self-employed, or out of work for less than one year. Occupation data were coded using the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) Industry and Occupation Computerized Coding System. We analyzed health behaviors and conditions by major occupation groups. We calculated prevalence estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results The prevalence of chronic conditions, health statuses, and risk behaviors (e.g., smoking and seatbelt use) varied significantly by occupation. For example, compared with all workers (93.6%, 95% CI 92.7, 94.5), significantly fewer workers in farming, forestry, fishing and construction, extraction jobs (87.0%, 95% CI 82.0, 92.0) reported always or nearly always wearing a seatbelt while driving. Additionally, significantly more office and administrative support workers (27.5%, 95% CI 22.5, 32.4) compared with all workers (20.6%, 95% CI 19.3, 22.0) were obese. Further observation and research is needed to understand the effects of occupation on health outcomes and behaviors. Conclusion There are no other Colorado state-level datasets that link health behaviors and chronic conditions with occupation. This study shows that the prevalence of chronic conditions and risk behaviors

  2. Community, State, and Federal Approaches to Cumulative Risk Assessment: Challenges and Opportunities for Integration

    EPA Science Inventory

    Community, state, and federal approaches to conventional and cumulative risk assessment (CRA) were described and compared to assess similarities and differences, and develop recommendations for a consistent CRA approach, acceptable across each level as a rigorous scientific metho...

  3. Risk assessment for enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations: a fault tree analysis approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Yajun; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.

    2013-08-01

    Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations are often characterised with large capital outlay, long implementation duration, and high risk of failure. In order to avoid ERP implementation failure and realise the benefits of the system, sound risk management is the key. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk assessment approach for ERP system implementation projects based on fault tree analysis, which models the relationship between ERP system components and specific risk factors. Unlike traditional risk management approaches that have been mostly focused on meeting project budget and schedule objectives, the proposed approach intends to address the risks that may cause ERP system usage failure. The approach can be used to identify the root causes of ERP system implementation usage failure and quantify the impact of critical component failures or critical risk events in the implementation process.

  4. Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

    PubMed

    Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

    2012-09-01

    Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project.

  5. A risk-based approach to robotic mission requirements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dias, William C.; Bourke, Roger D.

    1992-01-01

    A NASA Risk Team has developed a method for the application of risk management to the definition of robotic mission requirements for the Space Exploration Initiative. These requirements encompass environmental information, infrastructural emplacement in advance, and either technology testing or system/subsystems demonstration. Attention is presently given to a method for step-by-step consideration and analysis of the risk component inherent in mission architecture, followed by a calculation of the subjective risk level. Mitigation strategies are then applied with the same rules, and a comparison is made.

  6. A peptidomic approach to study the contribution of added casein proteins to the peptide profile in Spanish dry-fermented sausages.

    PubMed

    Mora, Leticia; Escudero, Elizabeth; Aristoy, M-Concepción; Toldrá, Fidel

    2015-11-01

    Peptidomics is a necessary alternative in the analysis of naturally generated peptides in dry-fermented processing. The intense proteolysis occurred during the processing of dry-fermented sausages is due to the action of endopeptidases and exopeptidases from both, endogenous muscle origin and lactic acid bacteria (LAB) added in the starter. Sodium caseinate is frequently used as an additive in this type of products because of its emulsifying properties, and consequently influences the protein profile available during the proteolysis. In this study, a mass spectrometry approach has been used to determine the impact of added sodium caseinate in the final peptide profile as well as to analyse its possible influence in the presence of certain previously described casein-derived bioactive peptides.

  7. A new approach to risk assessment integrating scientific evaluation and economic assessment of costs and benefits.

    PubMed

    Barnard, R C

    1996-10-01

    Traditional quantitative risk assessment based on conservative generic assumptions led to an upper-bound risk value with minimum or no consideration of costs and benefits. There is a growing consensus for a new approach to risk assessment based on a combination of scientific risk assessment and economic cost-benefit analysis. Scientific evaluation would be improved to support the economic cost-benefit analysis. The objective is to demonstrate whether the benefits justify the costs. The move in the new direction is shown by Executive Order 12866 and the Office of Management and Budget implementing document, the proposed regulatory reform legislation in Congress, the draft report of the Risk Assessment and Risk Management Commission, and the Safe Drinking Water Act Amendments of 1996 that enacted the new approach combining scientific and economic assessment of risk. This Commentary discusses these developments with particular reference to contemplated changes in scientific risk assessment to support a parallel economic risk-benefit analysis. PMID:8933625

  8. Educational Approach to Seismic Risk Mitigation in Indian Himalayas -Hazard Map Making Workshops at High Schools-

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koketsu, K.; Oki, S.; Kimura, M.; Chadha, R. K.; Davuluri, S.

    2014-12-01

    How can we encourage people to take preventive measures against damage risks and empower them to take the right actions in emergencies to save their lives? The conventional approach taken by scientists had been disseminating intelligible information on up-to-date seismological knowledge. However, it has been proven that knowledge alone does not have enough impact to modify people's behaviors in emergencies (Oki and Nakayachi, 2012). On the other hand, the conventional approach taken by practitioners had been to conduct emergency drills at schools or workplaces. The loss of many lives from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake has proven that these emergency drills were not enough to save people's lives, unless they were empowered to assess the given situation on their own and react flexibly. Our challenge is to bridge the gap between knowledge and practice. With reference to best practices observed in Tohoku, such as The Miracles of Kamaishi, our endeavor is to design an effective Disaster Preparedness Education Program that is applicable to other disaster-prone regions in the world, even with different geological, socio-economical and cultural backgrounds. The key concepts for this new approach are 1) empowering individuals to take preventive actions to save their lives, 2) granting community-based understanding of disaster risks and 3) building a sense of reality and relevancy to disasters. With these in mind, we held workshops at some high schools in the Lesser Himalayan Region, combining lectures with an activity called "Hazard Map Making" where students proactively identify and assess the hazards around their living areas and learn practical strategies on how to manage risks. We observed the change of awareness of the students by conducting a preliminary questionnaire survey and interviews after each session. Results strongly implied that the significant change of students' attitudes towards disaster preparedness occurred not by the lectures of scientific knowledge, but

  9. Adding Value to Education for Sustainability in Africa with Inquiry-Based Approaches in Open and Distance Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pretorius, Rudi; Lombard, Andrea; Khotoo, Anisa

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Inquiry-based approaches can potentially enrich sustainability learning in any educational context, more so in open and distance learning (ODL--perceived as theoretically inclined) and in regions of educational need (such as the Global South, of which Africa forms part). The purpose of this paper is to map the benefits and challenges of…

  10. Identifying and Lowering Student Attrition Risk: A Counselling Interventionist Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nelson-Field, Karen; Goodman, Steven

    2011-01-01

    This study evaluates the relationship between student counselling intervention and university persistence. We find that students deemed high-risk can directly benefit from student counselling intervention thus reducing their propensity to withdraw. We find that the characteristics of students who are at greatest risk of withdrawal include both…

  11. Risk Factors for Bereavement Outcome: A Multivariate Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van der Houwen, Karolijne; Stroebe, Margaret; Stroebe, Wolfgang; Schut, Henk; van den Bout, Jan; Wijngaards-De Meij, Leoniek

    2010-01-01

    Bereavement increases the risk of ill health, but only a minority of bereaved suffers lasting health impairment. Because only this group is likely to profit from bereavement intervention, early identification is important. Previous research is limited, because of cross sectional designs, small numbers of risk factors, and use of a single measure…

  12. Psychiatrists’ approach to vascular risk assessment in Latin America

    PubMed Central

    Richly, Pablo; López, Pablo; Gleichgerrcht, Ezequiel; Flichtentrei, Daniel; Prats, María; Mastandueno, Ricardo; Bustin, Julián; Cetkovich-Bakmas, Marcelo

    2014-01-01

    AIM: To explore the way in which Latin American psychiatrists approach the screening of vascular risk factors in patients receiving antipsychotic medication. METHODS: This was a descriptive, cross sectional study that surveyed Latin-American physicians to evaluate differences between groups divided in three main sections. The first section included demographic and professional data. The second section asked about the available medical resources: weighing scales, sphygmomanometer and measuring tape. Finally, the third section aimed at looking into the attitudes towards cardiovascular prevention. The latter was also divided into two subsections. In the first one, the questions were about weight, blood pressure and waist perimeter. In the second subsection the questions asked about the proportion of patients: (1) that suffered from overweight and/or obesity; (2) whose lipids and glycemia were controlled by the physician; (3) that were questioned by, and received information from the physician about smoking; and (4) that received recommendations from the physician to engage in regular physical activity. The participants were physicians, users of the medical website Intramed. The visitors were recruited by a banner that invited them to voluntarily access an online self-reported structured questionnaire with multiple options. RESULTS: We surveyed 1185 general physicians and 792 psychiatrists. Regarding basic medical resources, a significantly higher proportion of general physicians claimed to have weighing scales (χ2 = 404.9; P < 0.001), sphygmomanometers (χ2 = 419.3; P < 0.001), and measuring tapes (χ2 = 336.5; P < 0.001). While general physicians measured overweight and metabolic indexes in the general population in a higher proportion than in patients treated with antipsychotics (Z = -11.91; P < 0.001), psychiatrists claimed to measure them in patients medicated with antipsychotics in a higher proportion than in the general population (Z = -3.26; P < 0.001). Also

  13. A Bayesian Approach to Identifying New Risk Factors for Dementia

    PubMed Central

    Wen, Yen-Hsia; Wu, Shihn-Sheng; Lin, Chun-Hung Richard; Tsai, Jui-Hsiu; Yang, Pinchen; Chang, Yang-Pei; Tseng, Kuan-Hua

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Dementia is one of the most disabling and burdensome health conditions worldwide. In this study, we identified new potential risk factors for dementia from nationwide longitudinal population-based data by using Bayesian statistics. We first tested the consistency of the results obtained using Bayesian statistics with those obtained using classical frequentist probability for 4 recognized risk factors for dementia, namely severe head injury, depression, diabetes mellitus, and vascular diseases. Then, we used Bayesian statistics to verify 2 new potential risk factors for dementia, namely hearing loss and senile cataract, determined from the Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. We included a total of 6546 (6.0%) patients diagnosed with dementia. We observed older age, female sex, and lower income as independent risk factors for dementia. Moreover, we verified the 4 recognized risk factors for dementia in the older Taiwanese population; their odds ratios (ORs) ranged from 3.469 to 1.207. Furthermore, we observed that hearing loss (OR = 1.577) and senile cataract (OR = 1.549) were associated with an increased risk of dementia. We found that the results obtained using Bayesian statistics for assessing risk factors for dementia, such as head injury, depression, DM, and vascular diseases, were consistent with those obtained using classical frequentist probability. Moreover, hearing loss and senile cataract were found to be potential risk factors for dementia in the older Taiwanese population. Bayesian statistics could help clinicians explore other potential risk factors for dementia and for developing appropriate treatment strategies for these patients. PMID:27227925

  14. Chemical Mixture Risk Assessment Additivity-Based Approaches

    EPA Science Inventory

    Powerpoint presentation includes additivity-based chemical mixture risk assessment methods. Basic concepts, theory and example calculations are included. Several slides discuss the use of "common adverse outcomes" in analyzing phthalate mixtures.

  15. HACCP-based quality risk management approach to udder health problems on dairy farms

    PubMed Central

    2009-01-01

    Against the background of prevailing udder health problems on dairy farms, this paper discusses a new approach to mastitis control. Current udder health control programmes, such as the 'five-point plan', are highlighted and their drawbacks indicated. The concept and principles of hazard analysis critical control points (HACCP) are introduced. The eight core elements of this concept are dealt with by using the example of a dairy herd with a mastitis problem due to Staphylococcus aureus. The various steps to be taken in the development of a HACCP-based quality risk management programme are illustrated through the application of core elements. Finally, it is shown that the HACCP key words, structure, organisation, planning, communication and formalisation; which do not frequently appear in conventional herd health and production management programmes can contribute to better udder health. The role of the veterinarian can be paramount and of added value, if he/she is willing to invest in new knowledge and skills, such as the HACCP concept, farm economics, animal nutrition, and particularly the role of coach to the dairy farmer in the implementation of preventative measures in relation to udder health. PMID:22082372

  16. Replaced gastroduodenal artery: Added benefit of the “artery first” approach during pancreaticoduodenectomy—A case report

    PubMed Central

    Younan, George; Chimukangara, Munyaradzi; Tsai, Susan; Evans, Douglas B.; Christians, Kathleen K.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Variations in hepatic arterial anatomy are frequently encountered in pancreas and liver surgery. These aberrancies add technical complexity to the procedure and can result in significant patient morbidity if these vascular nuances are not recognized. Presentation of case We report a case whereby a superior mesenteric artery first approach was used to locate and preserve an aberrant left hepatic artery arising from a replaced gastroduodenal artery emanating from the SMA during pancreaticoduodenectomy. The procedure was done for resection of a large duodenal adenoma. Discussion High-quality preoperative imaging and mastery in surgical expertise are requirements for identification and preservation of aberrant hepatic arterial anatomy during procedures involving vital intra-abdominal organs. Conclusion Our aim is to provide awareness of rare vascular anomalies encountered during pancreaticoduodenectomy and provide a unique method for successful management. PMID:27124718

  17. Practical approaches to the assessment of work-related risks.

    PubMed

    Kogi, K

    1993-01-01

    The control of work-related risks calls for practical improvements in job content and the working environment. For assessment of risks, it is essential to resort to the most practical methods in the local context. Important common methods are examination of the process, equipment and organisation of work, walk-through surveys, evaluation of risk factors in the working environment, inquiries and questionnaires as well as monitoring of various health indicators. Biological tests and other health indicators can thus only be regarded as components of overall occupational health-risk assessment strategy, with their advantages, disadvantages and limitations. Important are the validity of biological tests and the ethical aspects related to their use, such as confidentiality of data and the individual worker's informed consent, preference being given to noninvasive-methods. Occupational health services should thus play a positive role by providing practical advice, training and information for participatory risk assessment keeping in view such an overall strategy that facilitates immediate preventive action. Biological monitoring should be applied when the additional guidance it provides on preventive action is essential. Proposals to use biological monitoring must emphasise this justification aspect.

  18. Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

    SciTech Connect

    Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

    2006-03-01

    For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

  19. Overview of groundwater management approaches at salinisation risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polemio, Maurizio; Emanuela Zuffianò, Livia

    2013-04-01

    All natural waters contain dissolved minerals from interactions with atmospheric and soil gases, mixing with other solutions, and/or interactions with the biosphere and lithosphere. In many cases, these processes result in natural waters containing solute or salinity above concentrations recommended for a specified use, which creates significant social and economic problems. Groundwater salinisation can be caused by natural phenomena and anthropogenic activities. For the former case, we can distinguish terrestrial and marine phenomena. Approximately 16% of the total area of continental earth is potentially involved in groundwater salinisation. Seawater intrusion can be considered to be the primary phenomenon to be studied in terms of groundwater salinisation. Three schematic approaches to the protection of groundwater via salinisation mitigation and/or groundwater salinity improvement are described based on the classifications of the primary salinisation sources and focusing on the effect of seawater intrusion. The complexity of these approaches generally increases due to difficulties caused by groundwater quality and quantity degradation and increased demand for quality water. In order from the lowest to the highest complexity, these approaches are the engineering approach, the discharge management approach, and the water and land management approach. The engineering approach is realised on the local or detailed scale with the purpose of controlling the salinisation, optimising the well discharge with specific technical solutions and/or completing works to improve the quality and/or quantity of the discharged fresh groundwater. The discharge management approach encompasses at least an entire coastal aquifer and defines rules concerning groundwater utilisation and well discharge. The water and land management approach should be applied on the regional scale. Briefly, this approach becomes necessary when one or more need creates an overall framework of high

  20. A new multicriteria risk mapping approach based on a multiattribute frontier concept.

    PubMed

    Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H; Ben-Haim, Yakov; Downing, Marla; Sapio, Frank; Siltanen, Marty

    2013-09-01

    Invasive species risk maps provide broad guidance on where to allocate resources for pest monitoring and regulation, but they often present individual risk components (such as climatic suitability, host abundance, or introduction potential) as independent entities. These independent risk components are integrated using various multicriteria analysis techniques that typically require prior knowledge of the risk components' importance. Such information is often nonexistent for many invasive pests. This study proposes a new approach for building integrated risk maps using the principle of a multiattribute efficient frontier and analyzing the partial order of elements of a risk map as distributed in multidimensional criteria space. The integrated risks are estimated as subsequent multiattribute frontiers in dimensions of individual risk criteria. We demonstrate the approach with the example of Agrilus biguttatus Fabricius, a high-risk pest that may threaten North American oak forests in the near future. Drawing on U.S. and Canadian data, we compare the performance of the multiattribute ranking against a multicriteria linear weighted averaging technique in the presence of uncertainties, using the concept of robustness from info-gap decision theory. The results show major geographic hotspots where the consideration of tradeoffs between multiple risk components changes integrated risk rankings. Both methods delineate similar geographical regions of high and low risks. Overall, aggregation based on a delineation of multiattribute efficient frontiers can be a useful tool to prioritize risks for anticipated invasive pests, which usually have an extremely poor prior knowledge base. PMID:23339716

  1. Review of Qualitative Approaches for the Construction Industry: Designing a Risk Management Toolbox

    PubMed Central

    Spee, Ton; Gillen, Matt; Lentz, Thomas J.; Garrod, Andrew; Evans, Paul; Swuste, Paul

    2011-01-01

    Objectives This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social Security Association says, "whereas progress has been made in safety and health, the construction industry is still a high risk sector." Methods Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ about 80% of the world's construction workers. In recent years a strategy for qualitative occupational risk management, known as Control Banding (CB) has gained international attention as a simplified approach for reducing work-related risks. CB groups hazards into stratified risk 'bands', identifying commensurate controls to reduce the level of risk and promote worker health and safety. We review these qualitative solutions-based approaches and identify strengths and weaknesses toward designing a simplified CB 'toolbox' approach for use by SMEs in construction trades. Results This toolbox design proposal includes international input on multidisciplinary approaches for performing a qualitative risk assessment determining a risk 'band' for a given project. Risk bands are used to identify the appropriate level of training to oversee construction work, leading to commensurate and appropriate control methods to perform the work safely. Conclusion The Construction Toolbox presents a review-generated format to harness multiple solutions-based national programs and publications for controlling construction-related risks with simplified approaches across the occupational safety, health and hygiene professions. PMID:22953194

  2. A REGIONAL APPROACH TO ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENTS FOR PRODUCT REGISTRATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Currently, most ecological risk assessments for EPA registration are evaluated at the national scale using a predetermined list of species with little regard to where the product will ultimately be used. The assumption is that the test species presently used are representative a...

  3. AN APPROACH FOR CHARACTERIZING TROPOSPHERIC OZONE RISK TO FOREST

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk tropospheric ozone poses to forests in the United States is dependent on the variation in ozone exposure across the distribution of the forests in question and the various environmental and climate factors predominant in the region. All these factors have a spatial natur...

  4. A REGIONAL APPROACH TO ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENTS FOR PESTICIDE REGISTRATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Currently, most ecological risk assessments for EPA pesticide registration are evaluated at the national scale using a predetermined list of test species (OPPTS 850.4225 and 8504250) as a model system with little regard to where and how the product will ultimately be used. The a...

  5. Teen Risk-Taking: Promising Prevention Programs and Approaches.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eisen, Marvin; Pallitto, Christina; Bradner, Carolyn; Bolshun, Natalya

    This guidebook explores some of the practical issues associated with finding, choosing, and starting potentially effective prevention programs for at-risk preteens and teens. The guidebook is based on a study of 51 intervention programs that identified elements and delivery mechanisms that were associated with their effectiveness. A closer look at…

  6. A risk-based approach to cleanup: Problems and pitfalls

    SciTech Connect

    Anspaugh, L.

    1995-10-01

    This paper details information dealing with the meetings of the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU). Topics discussed include: Radtest program to summarize all data on radiation doses resulting from nuclear weapons testing; current status of US cleanup strategies; development of new milestones for the project due to reduced budgets; health hazards; and risk reduction.

  7. College Alcohol Risk Assessment Guide: Environmental Approaches to Prevention

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ryan, Barbara E.; Colthurst, Tom; Segars, Lance

    2009-01-01

    This guide is designed to help individuals identify and modify risks that contribute to alcohol-related problems within college and university communities. Despite general agreement among campus officials and students alike that alcohol use contributes to a range of problems confronting colleges and universities, prevention often does not command…

  8. College Alcohol Risk Assessment Guide. Environmental Approaches to Prevention.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ryan, Barbara E.; And Others

    This guide suggests methods and exercises for gathering and organizing information about alcohol use and associated adverse consequences on university campuses and in surrounding communities. The guide is intended to assist individuals and groups in identifying and modifying risks that contribute to alcohol-related problems. Alcohol problem…

  9. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA): A Practical and Cost Effective Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Lydia L.; Ingegneri, Antonino J.; Djam, Melody

    2006-01-01

    The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) is the first mission of the Robotic Lunar Exploration Program (RLEP), a space exploration venture to the Moon, Mars and beyond. The LRO mission includes spacecraft developed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and seven instruments built by GSFC, Russia, and contractors across the nation. LRO is defined as a measurement mission, not a science mission. It emphasizes the overall objectives of obtaining data to facilitate returning mankind safely to the Moon in preparation for an eventual manned mission to Mars. As the first mission in response to the President's commitment of the journey of exploring the solar system and beyond: returning to the Moon in the next decade, then venturing further into the solar system, ultimately sending humans to Mars and beyond, LRO has high-visibility to the public but limited resources and a tight schedule. This paper demonstrates how NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Mission project office incorporated reliability analyses in assessing risks and performing design tradeoffs to ensure mission success. Risk assessment is performed using NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) 8705.5 - Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects to formulate probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). As required, a limited scope PRA is being performed for the LRO project. The PRA is used to optimize the mission design within mandated budget, manpower, and schedule constraints. The technique that LRO project office uses to perform PRA relies on the application of a component failure database to quantify the potential mission success risks. To ensure mission success in an efficient manner, low cost and tight schedule, the traditional reliability analyses, such as reliability predictions, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), are used to perform PRA for the large system of LRO with more than 14,000 piece parts and over 120 purchased or contractor

  10. The added value of a water footprint approach: Micro- and macroeconomic analysis of cotton production, processing and export in water bound Uzbekistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rudenko, I.; Bekchanov, M.; Djanibekov, U.; Lamers, J. P. A.

    2013-11-01

    Since independence from the former Soviet Union in 1991, Uzbekistan is challenged to consolidate its efforts and identify and introduce suitable agricultural policies to ease the threat of advancing land, water and ecosystem deterioration. On the one hand, irrigated cotton production provides income, food and energy sources for a large part of the rural households, which accounts for about 70% of the total population. On the other hand, this sector is considered a major driver of the on-going environmental degradation. Due to this dual nature, an integrated approach is needed that allows the analyses of the cotton sector at different stages and, consequently, deriving comprehensive options for action. The findings of the economic based value chain analysis and ecologically-oriented water footprint analysis on regional level were complemented with the findings of an input-output model on national level. This combination gave an added value for better-informed decision-making to reach land, water and ecosystem sustainability, compared to the individual results of each approach. The synergy of approaches pointed at various options for actions, such as to (i) promote the shift of water use from the high water consuming agricultural sector to a less water consuming cotton processing sector, (ii) increase overall water use efficiency by expanding the highly water productive industrial sectors and concurrently decreasing sectors with inefficient water use, and (iii) reduce agricultural water use by improving irrigation and conveyance efficiencies. The findings showed that increasing water use efficiency, manufacturing products with higher value added and raising water users' awareness of the real value of water are essential for providing water security in Uzbekistan.

  11. Pharmacological approach to cardiovascular risk in metabolic syndrome.

    PubMed

    Bellis, Alessandro; Trimarco, Bruno

    2013-06-01

    Metabolic syndrome is not a discrete entity with a single pathogenesis, but different complex mechanisms, especially those inducing oxidative stress, play a major role in the genesis of this condition. This consideration suggests that treatment of recognized cardiovascular risk factors alone cannot be enough to prevent cardiovascular events in patients with a diagnosed metabolic syndrome. However, it has been reported that oxidative stress is involved in the transduction of the effects of haemodynamic and metabolic pathological conditions. Thus, drugs acting on the renin-angiotensin system [angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers], or on the glucose or lipid metabolism as substrate of oxidative mechanisms (statins and nutraceuticals) in association with a dietary restriction may be taken in account, because they play a synergistic effect in preventing functional and structural changes responsible for the high cardiovascular risk in metabolic syndrome.

  12. NASA's Approach to Critical Risks for Extended Human Space Flight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shelhamer, Mark

    2014-01-01

    Planetary Robotic and Human Spaceflight Exploration Humans are exposed to a great variety of hazards in the space environment. These include the effects of weightlessness, radiation, isolation and confinement, altered day-night cycles, and others. These inherent hazards have both physiological and behavioral consequences. The adaptive capabilities of humans in these situations is remarkable, and often exceed our expectations. However, the demanding environment and challenging operational pace can push some of these adaptive processes to their limits. The NASA Human Research Program (HRP) is tasked with mitigating the most serious of these effects on human health, safety, and performance, in long-duration space flight. This can involve the development and deployment of physiological countermeasures, better understanding of the physiological alterations and avoidance of exacerbating situations, inputs to the design of future spacecraft to minimize risks, and in some cases the awareness that some level of risk might have to be accepted based on the resulting consequences and their likelihood. HRP has identified a few areas that are of special concern due to their severity, lack of understanding of underlying causes, or potential for negative impact on health or performance. Some of these areas are visual impairment possibly due to increased intracranial pressure, behavioral and performance problems due to sleep deficits and isolation, and acute and chronic effects of radiation. These problems can, if not addressed, be expected to increase on longer and more distant missions. The evidence from spaceflight, laboratory, and analog studies that supports the selection of the most critical risks will be discussed. Current and planned research programs that address these risks, and their anticipated outcomes, will also be described.

  13. Stochastic dominance: an approach to decision making under risk.

    PubMed

    Buckley, J J

    1986-03-01

    This paper introduces stochastic dominance as a technique to reduce the set of possible actions that a decision maker must consider in a decision problem under risk. The procedure usually does not choose an optimal action, but instead eliminates certain actions as unacceptable. Very little need be known about the decision maker's utility function. Two possible applications are presented: upgrading buildings to better withstand an earthquake; and choosing a site for a LNG facility.

  14. Evaluating changes in driver behaviour: a risk profiling approach.

    PubMed

    Ellison, Adrian B; Bliemer, Michiel C J; Greaves, Stephen P

    2015-02-01

    New road safety strategies continue to be devised by researchers and policy makers with pay-as-you-drive (PAYD) schemes gaining increasing attention. However, empirically measuring the effectiveness of these strategies is challenging due to the influence of the road environment and other factors external to the driver. The analysis presented here applies Temporal and Spatial Identifiers to control for the road environment and Driver Behaviour Profiles to provide a common measure of driving behaviour based on the risk of a casualty crash for assessing the effectiveness of a PAYD scheme on reducing driving risks. The results show that in many cases personalised feedback alone is sufficient to induce significant changes, but the largest reductions in risk are observed when drivers are also awarded a financial incentive to change behaviour. Importantly, the more frequent the exposure to the speeding information, the greater the magnitude of the change. However, the changes are disproportionately associated with those that were already safer drivers in the baseline period suggesting that some drivers may be predisposed to changing their behaviour. These results suggest that it would be beneficial to provide real-time or daily feedback on speeding behaviour in conjunction with a financial reward scheme, potentially as a component of insurance premiums.

  15. Evaluating changes in driver behaviour: a risk profiling approach.

    PubMed

    Ellison, Adrian B; Bliemer, Michiel C J; Greaves, Stephen P

    2015-02-01

    New road safety strategies continue to be devised by researchers and policy makers with pay-as-you-drive (PAYD) schemes gaining increasing attention. However, empirically measuring the effectiveness of these strategies is challenging due to the influence of the road environment and other factors external to the driver. The analysis presented here applies Temporal and Spatial Identifiers to control for the road environment and Driver Behaviour Profiles to provide a common measure of driving behaviour based on the risk of a casualty crash for assessing the effectiveness of a PAYD scheme on reducing driving risks. The results show that in many cases personalised feedback alone is sufficient to induce significant changes, but the largest reductions in risk are observed when drivers are also awarded a financial incentive to change behaviour. Importantly, the more frequent the exposure to the speeding information, the greater the magnitude of the change. However, the changes are disproportionately associated with those that were already safer drivers in the baseline period suggesting that some drivers may be predisposed to changing their behaviour. These results suggest that it would be beneficial to provide real-time or daily feedback on speeding behaviour in conjunction with a financial reward scheme, potentially as a component of insurance premiums. PMID:25543101

  16. Approach on environmental risk assessment of nanosilver released from textiles

    SciTech Connect

    Voelker, Doris; Schlich, Karsten; Hohndorf, Lars; Koch, Wolfgang; Kuehnen, Ute; Polleichtner, Christian; Kussatz, Carola; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

    2015-07-15

    Based on the increased utilization of nanosilver (silver nanomaterials=AgNM) as antibacterial agent, there is the strong need to assess the potential environmental implication associated with its new application areas. In this study an exemplary environmental risk assessment (ERA) of AgNM applied in textiles was performed. Environmental exposure scenarios (via municipal sewage treatment plant (STP)) with wastewater supply from domestic homes) were developed for three different types of textiles equipped with AgNM. Based on these scenarios predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) were deduced for STPs and for the environmental compartments surface water, sediment as well as soil. These PECs were related to PNECs (predicted no effect concentrations). PNECs were deduced from results of ecotoxicity tests of a selected AgNM (NM-300K). Data on ecotoxicology were derived from various tests with activated sludge, cyanobacteria, algae, daphnids, fish, duckweed, macrophytes, chironomids, earthworms, terrestrial plants as well as soil microorganisms. Emission data for the AgNM NM-300K from textiles were derived from washing experiments. The performed ERA was based on the specifications defined in the ECHA Guidances on information requirements and chemical safety assessment. Based on the chosen scenarios and preconditions, no environmental risk of the AgNM NM-300K released from textiles was detected. Under conservative assumptions a risk quotient for surface water close to 1 indicated that the aquatic compartment may be affected by an increased emission of AgNM to the environment due to the high sensitivity of aquatic organisms to silver. Based on the successful retention of AgNM in the sewage sludge and the still ongoing continual application of sewage sludge on farmland it is recommended to introduce a threshold for total silver content in sewage sludge into the respective regulations. Regarding potential risk mitigation measures, it is emphasized to preferably directly

  17. An Approach to Risk-Based Design Incorporating Damage Tolerance Analyses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Glaessgen, Edward H.; Sleight, David W.

    2002-01-01

    Incorporating risk-based design as an integral part of spacecraft development is becoming more and more common. Assessment of uncertainties associated with design parameters and environmental aspects such as loading provides increased knowledge of the design and its performance. Results of such studies can contribute to mitigating risk through a system-level assessment. Understanding the risk of an event occurring, the probability of its occurrence, and the consequences of its occurrence can lead to robust, reliable designs. This paper describes an approach to risk-based structural design incorporating damage-tolerance analysis. The application of this approach to a candidate Earth-entry vehicle is described. The emphasis of the paper is on describing an approach for establishing damage-tolerant structural response inputs to a system-level probabilistic risk assessment.

  18. Approaches and Sources of Uncertainty in Mixtures and Cumulative Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Approaches and Sources of Uncertainty in Mixtures and Cumulative Risk Assessment JC Lipscomb U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA Humans and environmental species are rarel...

  19. AdS/QCD approach to the scale-invariant extension of the standard model with a strongly interacting hidden sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hatanaka, Hisaki; Jung, Dong-Won; Ko, Pyungwon

    2016-08-01

    In this paper, we revisit a scale-invariant extension of the standard model (SM) with a strongly interacting hidden sector within AdS/QCD approach. Using the AdS/QCD, we reduce the number of input parameters to three, i.e. hidden pion decay constant, hidden pion mass and tan β that is defined as the ratio of the vacuum expectation values (VEV) of the singlet scalar field and the SM Higgs boson. As a result, our model has sharp predictability. We perform the phenomenological analysis of the hidden pions which is one of the dark matter (DM) candidates in this model. With various theoretical and experimental constraints we search for the allowed parameter space and find that both resonance and non-resonance solutions are possible. Some typical correlations among various observables such as thermal relic density of hidden pions, Higgs boson signal strengths and DM-nucleon cross section are investigated. We provide some benchmark points for experimental tests.

  20. NASA's human system risk management approach and its applicability to commercial spaceflight.

    PubMed

    Law, Jennifer; Mathers, Charles H; Fondy, Susan R E; Vanderploeg, James M; Kerstman, Eric L

    2013-01-01

    As planning continues for commercial spaceflight, attention is turned to NASA to assess whether its human system risk management approach can be applied to mitigate the risks associated with commercial suborbital and orbital flights. NASA uses a variety of methods to assess the risks to the human system based on their likelihood and consequences. In this article, we review these methods and categorize the risks in the system as "definite," "possible," or "least" concern for commercial spaceflight. As with career astronauts, these risks will be primarily mitigated by screening and environmental control. Despite its focus on long-duration exploration missions, NASA's human system risk management approach can serve as a preliminary knowledge base to help medical planners prepare for commercial spaceflights.

  1. NASA's human system risk management approach and its applicability to commercial spaceflight.

    PubMed

    Law, Jennifer; Mathers, Charles H; Fondy, Susan R E; Vanderploeg, James M; Kerstman, Eric L

    2013-01-01

    As planning continues for commercial spaceflight, attention is turned to NASA to assess whether its human system risk management approach can be applied to mitigate the risks associated with commercial suborbital and orbital flights. NASA uses a variety of methods to assess the risks to the human system based on their likelihood and consequences. In this article, we review these methods and categorize the risks in the system as "definite," "possible," or "least" concern for commercial spaceflight. As with career astronauts, these risks will be primarily mitigated by screening and environmental control. Despite its focus on long-duration exploration missions, NASA's human system risk management approach can serve as a preliminary knowledge base to help medical planners prepare for commercial spaceflights. PMID:23305003

  2. [Medical approaches to technogenic risks mitigation: instructive experience of space medicine].

    PubMed

    Pestov, I D

    2006-01-01

    Medical approaches to mitigation of technogenic extreme risks are analyzed by the example of space medicine experience in handling of the risks caused to humans by specific and non-specific extreme factors in space flight. Discussion is centered on the amalgamation of closely interconnected fundamental and applied risk researches with the ultimate aim of determining the strategy of risk minimization through optimization of environment, professional activity, and development of effective medical care and prevention instruments. One of the major achievements of the Russian space program was giving evidence of the possibility to control risks in extended orbital missions. As far as the Moon and Mars exploration projects are concerned, views of the U.S. NASA have been formulated in "Bioastronautics Critical Path Roadmap". Excerpts from the document illustrate possible approaches to the current and prospective technogenic extreme risks. PMID:16915813

  3. From Physical Process to Economic Cost - Integrated Approaches of Landslide Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klose, M.; Damm, B.

    2014-12-01

    The nature of landslides is complex in many respects, with landslide hazard and impact being dependent on a variety of factors. This obviously requires an integrated assessment for fundamental understanding of landslide risk. Integrated risk assessment, according to the approach presented in this contribution, implies combining prediction of future landslide occurrence with analysis of landslide impact in the past. A critical step for assessing landslide risk in integrated perspective is to analyze what types of landslide damage affected people and property in which way and how people contributed and responded to these damage types. In integrated risk assessment, the focus is on systematic identification and monetization of landslide damage, and analytical tools that allow deriving economic costs from physical landslide processes are at the heart of this approach. The broad spectrum of landslide types and process mechanisms as well as nonlinearity between landslide magnitude, damage intensity, and direct costs are some main factors explaining recent challenges in risk assessment. The two prevailing approaches for assessing the impact of landslides in economic terms are cost survey (ex-post) and risk analysis (ex-ante). Both approaches are able to complement each other, but yet a combination of them has not been realized so far. It is common practice today to derive landslide risk without considering landslide process-based cause-effect relationships, since integrated concepts or new modeling tools expanding conventional methods are still widely missing. The approach introduced in this contribution is based on a systematic framework that combines cost survey and GIS-based tools for hazard or cost modeling with methods to assess interactions between land use practices and landslides in historical perspective. Fundamental understanding of landslide risk also requires knowledge about the economic and fiscal relevance of landslide losses, wherefore analysis of their

  4. 77 FR 52977 - Regulatory Capital Rules: Advanced Approaches Risk-Based Capital Rule; Market Risk Capital Rule

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-08-30

    ...The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Board), and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) (collectively, the agencies) are seeking comment on three notices of proposed rulemaking (NPRs) that would revise and replace the agencies' current capital rules. In this NPR (Advanced Approaches and Market Risk NPR) the......

  5. Sensing risk, fearing uncertainty: systems science approach to change

    PubMed Central

    Janecka, Ivo P.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Medicine devotes its primary focus to understanding change, from cells to network relationships; observations of non-linearity are inescapable. Recent events provide extraordinary examples of major non-linear surprises within the societal system: human genome-from anticipated 100,000+ genes to only 20,000+; junk DNA-initially ignored but now proven to control genetic processes; economic reversals-bursting of bubbles in technology, housing, finance; foreign wars; relentless rise in obesity, neurodegenerative diseases. There are two attributes of systems science that are especially relevant to this research: One—it offers a method for creating a structural context with a guiding path to pragmatic knowledge; and, two—it gives pre-eminence to sensory input capable to register, evaluate, and react to change. Materials/Methods: Public domain records of change, during the last 50 years, have been studied in the context of systems science, the dynamic systems model, and various cycles. Results/Conclusions: Change is dynamic, ever-present, never isolated, and of variable impact; it reflects innumerable relationships among contextual systems; change can be perceived as risk or uncertainty depending upon how the assessment is made; risk is quantifiable by sensory input and generates a degree of rational optimism; uncertainty is not quantifiable and evokes fear; trust is key to sharing risk; the measurable financial credit can be a proxy for societal trust; expanding credit dilutes trust; when a credit bubble bursts, so will trust; absence of trust paralyzes systems' relationships leading to disorganized complexity which prevents value creation and heightens the probability of random events; disappearance of value, accompanied by chaos, threatens all systems. From personal health to economic sustainability and collective rationality, most examined components of the societal system were found not to be optimized and trust was not in evidence. PMID:24744723

  6. Approach on environmental risk assessment of nanosilver released from textiles.

    PubMed

    Voelker, Doris; Schlich, Karsten; Hohndorf, Lars; Koch, Wolfgang; Kuehnen, Ute; Polleichtner, Christian; Kussatz, Carola; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

    2015-07-01

    Based on the increased utilization of nanosilver (silver nanomaterials=AgNM) as antibacterial agent, there is the strong need to assess the potential environmental implication associated with its new application areas. In this study an exemplary environmental risk assessment (ERA) of AgNM applied in textiles was performed. Environmental exposure scenarios (via municipal sewage treatment plant (STP)) with wastewater supply from domestic homes) were developed for three different types of textiles equipped with AgNM. Based on these scenarios predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) were deduced for STPs and for the environmental compartments surface water, sediment as well as soil. These PECs were related to PNECs (predicted no effect concentrations). PNECs were deduced from results of ecotoxicity tests of a selected AgNM (NM-300K). Data on ecotoxicology were derived from various tests with activated sludge, cyanobacteria, algae, daphnids, fish, duckweed, macrophytes, chironomids, earthworms, terrestrial plants as well as soil microorganisms. Emission data for the AgNM NM-300K from textiles were derived from washing experiments. The performed ERA was based on the specifications defined in the ECHA Guidances on information requirements and chemical safety assessment. Based on the chosen scenarios and preconditions, no environmental risk of the AgNM NM-300K released from textiles was detected. Under conservative assumptions a risk quotient for surface water close to 1 indicated that the aquatic compartment may be affected by an increased emission of AgNM to the environment due to the high sensitivity of aquatic organisms to silver. Based on the successful retention of AgNM in the sewage sludge and the still ongoing continual application of sewage sludge on farmland it is recommended to introduce a threshold for total silver content in sewage sludge into the respective regulations. Regarding potential risk mitigation measures, it is emphasized to preferably directly

  7. International approach to the assessment of chemical risks.

    PubMed

    Mercier, M

    1991-01-01

    One of the main objectives of the International Programme on Chemical Safety, a joint venture of the World Health Organization, the United Nations Environment Programme and the International Labour Organization, is to carry out and disseminate evaluations of the risk to human health and the environment from exposure to chemicals, mixtures of chemicals, or combinations of chemicals and physical and biological agents. These evaluations, performed by groups of internationally reputed and independent experts, provide a scientific and objective basis that national authorities may be able to use for planning and for the development of control measures, such as the establishment of exposure limits for chemical pollutants.

  8. Approach on environmental risk assessment of nanosilver released from textiles.

    PubMed

    Voelker, Doris; Schlich, Karsten; Hohndorf, Lars; Koch, Wolfgang; Kuehnen, Ute; Polleichtner, Christian; Kussatz, Carola; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

    2015-07-01

    Based on the increased utilization of nanosilver (silver nanomaterials=AgNM) as antibacterial agent, there is the strong need to assess the potential environmental implication associated with its new application areas. In this study an exemplary environmental risk assessment (ERA) of AgNM applied in textiles was performed. Environmental exposure scenarios (via municipal sewage treatment plant (STP)) with wastewater supply from domestic homes) were developed for three different types of textiles equipped with AgNM. Based on these scenarios predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) were deduced for STPs and for the environmental compartments surface water, sediment as well as soil. These PECs were related to PNECs (predicted no effect concentrations). PNECs were deduced from results of ecotoxicity tests of a selected AgNM (NM-300K). Data on ecotoxicology were derived from various tests with activated sludge, cyanobacteria, algae, daphnids, fish, duckweed, macrophytes, chironomids, earthworms, terrestrial plants as well as soil microorganisms. Emission data for the AgNM NM-300K from textiles were derived from washing experiments. The performed ERA was based on the specifications defined in the ECHA Guidances on information requirements and chemical safety assessment. Based on the chosen scenarios and preconditions, no environmental risk of the AgNM NM-300K released from textiles was detected. Under conservative assumptions a risk quotient for surface water close to 1 indicated that the aquatic compartment may be affected by an increased emission of AgNM to the environment due to the high sensitivity of aquatic organisms to silver. Based on the successful retention of AgNM in the sewage sludge and the still ongoing continual application of sewage sludge on farmland it is recommended to introduce a threshold for total silver content in sewage sludge into the respective regulations. Regarding potential risk mitigation measures, it is emphasized to preferably directly

  9. Addressing arsenic bioaccessibility in ecological risk assessment: a novel approach to avoid overestimating risk.

    PubMed

    Ollson, Christopher A; Koch, Iris; Smith, Paula; Knopper, Loren D; Hough, Chris; Reimer, Ken J

    2009-03-01

    The risk of arsenic exposure to deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) living in areas of naturally and anthropogenically elevated arsenic levels was determined using three separate calculations of arsenic daily intake: Estimated daily intake (EDI), bioaccessible EDI (BEDI), and actual daily intake (ADI). The present work is of particular interest, because the risk assessments were determined for animals naturally exposed to arsenic. Gastric fluid extraction was used to obtain bioaccessibility data for soil and plant samples collected from three study sites (background, mine forest, and tailings) in Yellowknife (NT, Canada). Calculations using the EDI indicated that deer mice living in tailings habitat (average soil arsenic concentration, 1,740 +/- 2,240 microg/g) should have been experiencing serious health effects as a result of their exposure to arsenic. Using BEDI and ADI in the risk assessment calculation, however, resulted in an order-of-magnitude decrease in calculated risk. In addition, results calculated using the BEDI and ADI were not significantly different, suggesting that using bioaccessibility provides a more realistic estimate of potential risk. The present results provide evidence that the use of EDI in traditional risk assessments may seriously overestimate the actual risk, which in some instances may result in expensive and unnecessary clean-up measures.

  10. A multidisciplinary approach to therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient

    PubMed Central

    Grant, Cynthia L; Lusk, Jaimie L

    2015-01-01

    As health care trends toward a system of care approach, providers from various disciplines strive to collaborate to provide optimal care for their patients. While a multidisciplinary approach to suicide risk assessment and management has been identified as important for reducing suicidality, standardized clinical guidelines for such an approach do not yet exist. In this article, the authors propose the adoption of the therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient (TRMSP) to improve suicide risk assessment and management within multidisciplinary systems of care. The TRMSP, which has been fully articulated in previous articles, involves augmenting clinical risk assessment with structured instruments, stratifying risk in terms of both severity and temporality, and developing and documenting a safety plan. Augmenting clinical risk assessments with reliable and valid structured instruments serves several functions, including ensuring important aspects of suicide are addressed, establishing a baseline for suicidal thoughts and behaviors, facilitating interprofessional communication, and mitigating risk. Similarly, a two-dimensional risk stratification qualifying suicide risk in terms of both severity and temporality can enhance communication across providers and settings and improve understanding of acute crises in the context of chronic risk. Finally, safety planning interventions allow providers and patients to collaboratively create a personally meaningful plan for managing a suicidal crisis that can be continually modified across time with multiple providers in different care settings. In a busy care environment, the TRMSP can provide concrete guidance on conducting clinically and medicolegally sound suicide risk assessment and management. This collaborative and comprehensive process would potentially improve care of patients with suicidality, optimize clinical resources, decrease unnecessary and costly admissions, and mitigate medicolegal risk. The TRMSP may

  11. APPROACHES FOR INCORPORATING NON-CHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Over the past twenty years, the risk assessment paradigm has gradually shifted from an individual chemical approach to a community-based model. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is consideration of the totality of stressors affecting a defined population including both ...

  12. Risk-based targeting: A new approach in environmental protection

    SciTech Connect

    Fox, C.A.

    1995-12-31

    Risk-based targeting has recently emerged as an effective tool to help prioritize efforts to identify and manage geographic areas, chemicals, facilities, and agricultural activities that cause the most environmental degradation. This paper focuses on how the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has recently used risk-based targeting to identify and screen Federal, industrial, commercial and municipal facilities which contribute to probable human health (fish consumption advisories and contaminated fish tissue) and aquatic life (contaminated sediments) impacts. Preliminary results identified several hundred potential contributors of problem chemicals to probable impacts within the same river reach in 1991--93. Analysis by industry sector showed that the majority of the facilities identified were publicly owned treatment works (POTWs), in addition to industry organic and inorganic chemical manufacturers, petroleum refineries, and electric services, coatings, engravings, and allied services, among others. Both compliant and non-compliant potentially contributing facilities were identified to some extent in all EPA regions. Additional results identifying possible linkages of other pollutant sources to probable impacts, as well as estimation of potential exposure of these contaminants to minority and/or poverty populations are also presented. Out of these analyses, a number of short and long-term strategies are being developed that EPA may use to reduce loadings of problem contaminants to impacted waterbodies.

  13. DIS in AdS

    SciTech Connect

    Albacete, Javier L.; Kovchegov, Yuri V.; Taliotis, Anastasios

    2009-03-23

    We calculate the total cross section for the scattering of a quark-anti-quark dipole on a large nucleus at high energy for a strongly coupled N = 4 super Yang-Mills theory using AdS/CFT correspondence. We model the nucleus by a metric of a shock wave in AdS{sub 5}. We then calculate the expectation value of the Wilson loop (the dipole) by finding the extrema of the Nambu-Goto action for an open string attached to the quark and antiquark lines of the loop in the background of an AdS{sub 5} shock wave. We find two physically meaningful extremal string configurations. For both solutions we obtain the forward scattering amplitude N for the quark dipole-nucleus scattering. We study the onset of unitarity with increasing center-of-mass energy and transverse size of the dipole: we observe that for both solutions the saturation scale Q{sub s} is independent of energy/Bjorken-x and depends on the atomic number of the nucleus as Q{sub s}{approx}A{sup 1/3}. Finally we observe that while one of the solutions we found corresponds to the pomeron intercept of {alpha}{sub P} = 2 found earlier in the literature, when extended to higher energy or larger dipole sizes it violates the black disk limit. The other solution we found respects the black disk limit and yields the pomeron intercept of {alpha}{sub P} = 1.5. We thus conjecture that the right pomeron intercept in gauge theories at strong coupling may be {alpha}{sub P} = 1.5.

  14. 76 FR 65165 - Importation of Plants for Planting; Risk-Based Sampling and Inspection Approach and Propagative...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-10-20

    ... Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Importation of Plants for Planting; Risk-Based Sampling and...-based sampling approach for the inspection of imported plants for planting. In our previous approach, we... risk posed by the plants for planting. The risk-based sampling and inspection approach will allow us...

  15. Revisiting alternative approaches to the assessment of carcinogenic risk.

    PubMed

    Downes, Noel

    2010-02-01

    The rodent bioassay has been a mainstay of carcinogenic risk assessment for close to half a century; not that it has been without criticism in that time. As early as the 1990s, there were clearly established shortcomings with regard to relevance and extrapolation, but despite these concerns, this test continues relatively unchanged. As our understanding of the mechanisms of carcinogenesis and the availability of investigative techniques improve, there seems less reason than ever to persist with this exercise that provides little meaningful scientific data at great cost in terms of animal usage and pathologist time. This article highlights possible ways to gather and present data pertinent to carcinogenesis in man and suggests that it is the toxicological pathology community that should take the lead here in persuading regulators that there is great room for improvement in this particular aspect of regulatory pathology. PMID:20124498

  16. [Resistant gram-negative bacteria. Therapeutic approach and risk factors].

    PubMed

    Salgado, P; Gilsanz, F; Maseda, E

    2016-09-01

    The rapid spread of multidrug-resistant bacteria has become a serious threat, especially in critical care units, thereby prolonging the hospital stay. Enterobacteriaceae have a high capacity to adapt to any environment. Plasmids are the reason behind their expansion. The choice of empiric therapy for intra-abdominal or urinary infections requires knowledge of the intrinsic microbiological variability of each hospital or critical care unit, as well as the source of infection, safety or antibiotic toxicity, interaction with other drugs, the dosage regimen and the presence of risk factors. Carbapenems are the drug of choice in the case of suspected infection by ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae. The new ceftazidime/avibactam and ceftolozane/tazobactam drugs are opening up promising new horizons in the treatment of multidrug-resistant Enterobacteriaceae. PMID:27608309

  17. Exercise modality and selected coronary risk factors: a multivariate approach.

    PubMed

    Fang, C L; Sherman, W M; Crouse, S F; Tolson, H

    1988-10-01

    To evaluate group differences in coronary risk which could be attributed to the modality of habitual exercise, selected physiologic and lipid indices of coronary artery disease (CAD) were measured in 57 endurance trained (ET), strength trained (ST), or sedentary (SED) men (19 per group, aged 21 to 44 yr). Initial data reduction accomplished with principle component analysis identified three factors with eigenvalues greater than one. Orthogonal rotation of the preliminary solution demonstrated that low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), percent body fat (%BF) and VO2max, and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) could be used to represent Factors 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The subsequent MANOVA using these variables proved significant. Post hoc analysis via simultaneous confidence intervals indicated that LDL-C group differences were not significant. Values for %BF and HCL-C in the ST group (14.0% and 1.17 mmol.l-1, respectively) were between but did not differ significantly from respective values in the ET (11.8% and 1.34 mmol.l-1) and SED (18.7% and 1.13 mmol.l-1) groups. However, %BF and HDL-C differences between the ET and SED groups were significant. The VO2max of the ET subjects (63.2 ml.kg-1.min-1) was significantly higher than that of either the ST or SED subjects (49.5 and 46.7 ml.kg-1.min-1, respectively). These results suggest that ET is the most effective modality of exercise for CAD risk reduction while benefits derived from ST are minimal. PMID:3264042

  18. Risk Stratification for Sudden Cardiac Death: Current Approaches and Predictive Value

    PubMed Central

    Lopera, Gustavo; Curtis, Anne B.

    2009-01-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a serious public health problem; the annual incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in North America is approximately 166,200. Identifying patients at risk is a difficult proposition. At the present time, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) remains the single most important marker for risk stratification. According to current guidelines, most patients with LVEF <35% could benefit from prophylactic ICD implantation, particularly in the setting of symptomatic heart failure. Current risk stratification strategies fail to identify patients at risk of SCD in larger population groups encompassing a greater number of potential SCD victims. However, the best approach to identifying patients and the value of various risk stratification tools is not entirely clear. The goal of this review is to discuss the problem of SCD and the value of the different risk stratification markers and their potential clinical use either alone or in combination with other risk stratification markers. PMID:20066150

  19. The type of surgical approach influences the risk of revision in total hip arthroplasty

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background and purpose The most common surgical approaches in total hip arthroplasty in Sweden are the posterior and the anterolateral transgluteal approach. Currently, however, there is insufficient evidence to prefer one over the other regarding risk of subsequent surgery. Patients and methods We searched the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register between the years 1992 and 2009 to compare the posterior and anterolateral transgluteal approach regarding risk of revision in the 3 most common all-cemented hip prosthesis designs in Sweden. 90,662 total hip replacements met the inclusion criteria. We used Cox regression analysis for estimation of prosthesis survival and relative risk of revision due to dislocation, infection, or aseptic loosening. Results Our results show that for the Lubinus SPII prosthesis and the Spectron EF Primary prosthesis, the anterolateral transgluteal approach gave an increased risk of revision due to aseptic loosening (relative risk (RR) = 1.3, 95% CI: 1.0–1.6 and RR = 1.6, CI: 1.0–2.5) but a reduced risk of revision due to dislocation (RR = 0.7, CI: 0.5–0.8 and RR = 0.3, CI: 0.1–0.4). For the Exeter Polished prosthesis, the surgical approach did not affect the outcome for dislocation or aseptic loosening. The surgical approach had no influence on the risk of revision due to infection in any of these designs. Interpretation This observational study shows that the surgical approach affected the risk of revision due to aseptic loosening and dislocation for 2 of the most commonly used cemented implants in Sweden. Further studies are needed to determine whether these results are generalizable to other implants and to uncemented fixation. PMID:23116440

  20. The risk implications of approaches to setting soil remediation goals at hazardous waste contaminated sites

    SciTech Connect

    Labieniec, P.A.

    1994-08-01

    An integrated exposure and carcinogenic risk assessment model for organic contamination in soil, SoilRisk, was developed and used for evaluating the risk implications of both site-specific and uniform-concentration approaches to setting soil remediation goals at hazardous-waste-contaminated sites. SoilRisk was applied to evaluate the uncertainty in the risk estimate due to uncertainty in site conditions at a representative site. It was also used to evaluate the variability in risk across a region of sites that can occur due to differences in site characteristics that affect contaminant transport and fate when a uniform concentration approach is used. In evaluating regional variability, Ross County, Ohio and the State of Ohio were used as examples. All analyses performed considered four contaminants (benzene, trichloroethylene (TCE), chlordane, and benzo[a]pyrene (BAP)) and four exposure scenarios (commercial, recreational and on- and offsite residential). Regardless of whether uncertainty in risk at a single site or variability in risk across sites was evaluated, the exposure scenario specified and the properties of the target contaminant had more influence than variance in site parameters on the resulting variance and magnitude of the risk estimate. In general, variance in risk was found to be greater for the relatively less degradable and more mobile of the chemicals studied (TCE and chlordane) than for benzene which is highly degradable and BAP which is very immobile in the subsurface.

  1. Risk-proportionate clinical trial monitoring: an example approach from a non-commercial trials unit

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Some level of monitoring is usually required during a clinical trial to protect the rights and safety of trial participants and to safeguard the quality and reliability of trial results. Although there is increasing support for the use of risk-proportionate approaches to achieve these aims, the variety of methods and lack of an empirical evidence base can present challenges for clinical trial practitioners. Methods This paper describes the monitoring methods and procedures that are utilised by a non-commercial clinical trials unit which coordinates a range of clinical trials across a variety of clinical areas with different associated risks. Results Monitoring activities and approaches should be selected to be proportionate to the risks identified within a trial. A risk-proportionate approach to monitoring is described giving details of methods that may be considered by clinical trial practitioners during the development of a trial monitoring plan. An example risk assessment and corresponding monitoring plan for a low risk (type A in the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) classification system) pediatric trial is provided for illustration. Conclusion We present ideas for developing a monitoring plan for a clinical trial of an investigational medicinal product based on our experience. Alternative approaches may be relevant or preferable in other settings based on inherent risk. PMID:24739398

  2. Exploring Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks: a photographic approach to risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Börner, Susanne; Albino, Juan Carlos Torrico; Caraveo, Luz María Nieto; Tejeda, Ana Cristina Cubillas

    2015-05-01

    The objective of this study was to explore Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks in contaminated urban areas, and to test the environmental photography technique as a research tool for engaging adolescents in community-based health research. The study was conducted with 74 adolescents from two communities in the city of San Luis Potosi, Mexico. Participants were provided with disposable cameras and asked to take photographs of elements and situations which they believed affected their personal health both at home and outside their homes. They were also asked to describe each photograph in writing. Photographs and written explanations were analyzed by using quantitative and qualitative content analysis. Risk perception plays a crucial role in the development of Risk Communication Programs (RCPs) aimed at the improvement of community health. The photography technique opens up a promising field for environmental health research since it affords a realistic and concise impression of the perceived risks. Adolescents in both communities perceived different environmental health risks as detrimental to their well-being, e.g. waste, air pollution, and lack of hygiene. Yet, some knowledge gaps remain which need to be addressed. PMID:26017963

  3. Exploring Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks: a photographic approach to risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Börner, Susanne; Albino, Juan Carlos Torrico; Caraveo, Luz María Nieto; Tejeda, Ana Cristina Cubillas

    2015-05-01

    The objective of this study was to explore Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks in contaminated urban areas, and to test the environmental photography technique as a research tool for engaging adolescents in community-based health research. The study was conducted with 74 adolescents from two communities in the city of San Luis Potosi, Mexico. Participants were provided with disposable cameras and asked to take photographs of elements and situations which they believed affected their personal health both at home and outside their homes. They were also asked to describe each photograph in writing. Photographs and written explanations were analyzed by using quantitative and qualitative content analysis. Risk perception plays a crucial role in the development of Risk Communication Programs (RCPs) aimed at the improvement of community health. The photography technique opens up a promising field for environmental health research since it affords a realistic and concise impression of the perceived risks. Adolescents in both communities perceived different environmental health risks as detrimental to their well-being, e.g. waste, air pollution, and lack of hygiene. Yet, some knowledge gaps remain which need to be addressed.

  4. A spatially explicit risk approach to support marine spatial planning in the German EEZ.

    PubMed

    Gimpel, Antje; Stelzenmüller, Vanessa; Cormier, Roland; Floeter, Jens; Temming, Axel

    2013-05-01

    An ecosystem approach to marine spatial planning (MSP) promotes sustainable development by organizing human activities in a geo-spatial and temporal context. (1) This study develops and tests a spatially explicit risk assessment to support MSP. Using the German exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the North Sea as a case study area, current and future spatial management scenarios are assessed. (2) Different tools are linked in order to carry out a comprehensive spatial risk assessment of current and future spatial management scenarios for ecologic and economic ecosystem components, i.e. Pleuronectes platessa nursery grounds. With the identification of key inputs and outputs the suitability of each tool is tested. (3) Here, the procedure as well as the main findings of the spatially explicit risk approach are summarised to demonstrate the applicability of the framework and the need for an ecosystem approach to risk management techniques using geo-spatial tools.

  5. A spatially explicit risk approach to support marine spatial planning in the German EEZ.

    PubMed

    Gimpel, Antje; Stelzenmüller, Vanessa; Cormier, Roland; Floeter, Jens; Temming, Axel

    2013-05-01

    An ecosystem approach to marine spatial planning (MSP) promotes sustainable development by organizing human activities in a geo-spatial and temporal context. (1) This study develops and tests a spatially explicit risk assessment to support MSP. Using the German exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the North Sea as a case study area, current and future spatial management scenarios are assessed. (2) Different tools are linked in order to carry out a comprehensive spatial risk assessment of current and future spatial management scenarios for ecologic and economic ecosystem components, i.e. Pleuronectes platessa nursery grounds. With the identification of key inputs and outputs the suitability of each tool is tested. (3) Here, the procedure as well as the main findings of the spatially explicit risk approach are summarised to demonstrate the applicability of the framework and the need for an ecosystem approach to risk management techniques using geo-spatial tools. PMID:23535014

  6. A quantile-based Time at Risk: A new approach for assessing risk in financial markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bolgorian, Meysam; Raei, Reza

    2013-11-01

    In this paper, we provide a new measure for evaluation of risk in financial markets. This measure is based on the return interval of critical events in financial markets or other investment situations. Our main goal was to devise a model like Value at Risk (VaR). As VaR, for a given financial asset, probability level and time horizon, gives a critical value such that the likelihood of loss on the asset over the time horizon exceeds this value is equal to the given probability level, our concept of Time at Risk (TaR), using a probability distribution function of return intervals, provides a critical time such that the probability that the return interval of a critical event exceeds this time equals the given probability level. As an empirical application, we applied our model to data from the Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX) as a financial asset (market portfolio) and reported the results.

  7. [Ixodes ricinus. Health risks and approaches in prevention].

    PubMed

    Voigt, Thomas F

    2006-05-01

    Ticks belong to the parasitical mites. There are more than 1000 different species worldwide which do need blood of warm-blooded organisms for their own development. As ticks are well known to be vectors of several pathogens which could cause insidious infectious diseases, they are important in human and veterinarian medicine as well. It is not possible to control ticks in nature. Therefore the first step should be an effective prevention. In case of a bite the tick must be removed as soon as possible. Although Ixodes ricinus is more or less responsible for all health risks caused by ticks in Germany, further species like Rhipicephalus sanguineus, Dermacentor marginatus and Argas reflexus must not be forgotten, as these ticks have appeared more frequently in the recent past and they can be vectors of several diseases as well. This paper describes first and foremost the biological behaviour and development of Ixodes ricinus and the medical importance of this tick in human and veterinarian medicine.

  8. A Risk Management Approach to the "Insider Threat"

    SciTech Connect

    Bishop, Matt; Engle, Sophie J.; Frincke, Deborah A.; Gates, Carrie; Greitzer, Frank L.; Peisert, Sean; Whalen, Sean

    2010-09-01

    Abstract Recent surveys indicate that the financial impact and operating losses due to insider intrusions are increasing. But these studies often disagree on what constitutes an insider; indeed, many define it only implicitly. In theory, appropriate selection of, and enforcement of, properly specified security policies should prevent legitimate users from abusing their access to computer systems, information, and other resources. However, even if policies could be expressed precisely, the natural mapping between the natural language expression of a security policy, and the expression of that policy in a form that can be implemented on a computer system or network, creates gaps in enforcement. This paper defines insider precisely, in terms of these gaps, and explores an access-based model for analyzing threats that include those usually termed insider threats. This model enables an organization to order its resources based on the business value for that resource and of the information it contains. By identifying those users with access to high-value resources, we obtain an ordered list of users who can cause the greatest amount of damage. Concurrently with this, we examine psychological indicators in order to determine which users are at the greatest risk of acting inappropriately.We conclude by examining how to merge this model with one of forensic logging and auditing.

  9. Approach to proliferation risk assessment based on multiple objective analysis framework

    SciTech Connect

    Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I.

    2013-07-01

    The approach to the assessment of proliferation risk using the methods of multi-criteria decision making and multi-objective optimization is presented. The approach allows the taking into account of the specifics features of the national nuclear infrastructure, and possible proliferation strategies (motivations, intentions, and capabilities). 3 examples of applying the approach are shown. First, the approach has been used to evaluate the attractiveness of HEU (high enriched uranium)production scenarios at a clandestine enrichment facility using centrifuge enrichment technology. Secondly, the approach has been applied to assess the attractiveness of scenarios for undeclared production of plutonium or HEU by theft of materials circulating in nuclear fuel cycle facilities and thermal reactors. Thirdly, the approach has been used to perform a comparative analysis of the structures of developing nuclear power systems based on different types of nuclear fuel cycles, the analysis being based on indicators of proliferation risk.

  10. Risk Governance of Multiple Natural Hazards: Centralized versus Decentralized Approach in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komendantova, Nadejda; Scolobig, Anna; Vinchon, Charlotte

    2014-05-01

    The multi-risk approach is a relatively new field and its definition includes the need to consider multiple hazards and vulnerabilities in their interdependency (Selva, 2013) and the current multi-hazards disasters, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and nuclear catastrophe, showed the need for a multi-risk approach in hazard mitigation and management. Our knowledge about multi-risk assessment, including studies from different scientific disciplines and developed assessment tools, is constantly growing (White et al., 2001). However, the link between scientific knowledge, its implementation and the results in terms of improved governance and decision-making have gained significantly less attention (IRGC, 2005; Kappes et al., 2012), even though the interest to risk governance, in general, has increased significantly during the last years (Verweiy and Thompson, 2006). Therefore, the key research question is how risk assessment is implemented and what is the potential for the implementation of a multi-risk approach in different governance systems across Europe. More precisely, how do the characteristics of risk governance, such as the degree of centralization versus decentralization, influence the implementation of a multi-risk approach. The methodology of this research includes comparative case study analysis of top-down and bottom-up interactions in governance in the city of Naples, (Italy), where the institutional landscape is marked by significant autonomy of Italian regions in decision-making processes for assessing the majority of natural risks, excluding volcanic, and in Guadeloupe, French West Indies, an overseas department of France, where the decision-making process is marked by greater centralization in decision making associated with a well established state governance within regions, delegated to the prefect and decentralised services of central ministries. The research design included documentary analysis and extensive empirical work involving

  11. Extreme Meteorological Events from documentary sources on old Aragon Kingdom, AD1000-1500. Firsts results after a systematic approach to data availability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rama, Eduard; Barriendos, Mariano

    2010-05-01

    Extreme Meteorological Events from documentary sources on old Aragon Kingdom, AD 1000-1500. Firsts results after a systematic approach to data availability Eduard Rama1, Mariano Barriendos2 1 Research Laboratory on Climate, Scientific Park of Barcelona 2 Department of Modern History, University of Barcelona Research on documentary sources focused on detection and reconstruction of climatic data and extreme meteorological events is an activity with notable tradition on palaeoclimatic discipline. Historical climatology offers a good source of climatic and environmental proxy-data. This information covers past centuries establishing good overlapping with instrumental data availability period. Best qualities of historical information are a high temporal resolution, an exact and reliable datation, and complementary information related to environmental and human impacts. Historical climatology offers a large number of data chronologies for Europe covering historiographical periods from Low Middle Age to Contemporary Age (14th to 20th Centuries). Into framework of EU IP Millennium, a systematic research assumed the challenge to collect data from High Middle Age. Documentary sources are discontinuous and scattered, information is not precise and reliable, but all possible original information can be useful to characterize the Warm Medieval Period, most recent climatic period similar to possible climate of next future, at least concerning thermic conditions. Present work shows a systematic effort on documentary sources of Old Aragon Kingdom (actually, spanish regions of Catalonia, Aragon, Valentia and Balearic Islands), collecting extreme weather events for period AD1000-1500. Historical context of Aragon Kingdom was no easy in this period, focused on recovering territory in front of Muslim Kingdoms (Reconsquista) up to 13th Century from North to South. After this, consolidation of modern institutions and urban network took 14-15th Centuries. Data sources has been all

  12. Community, State, and Federal Approaches to Cumulative Risk Assessment: Challenges and Opportunities for Integration

    PubMed Central

    Barzyk, Timothy M.; Wilson, Sacoby; Wilson, Anthony

    2015-01-01

    Community, state, and federal approaches to conventional and cumulative risk assessment (CRA) were described and compared to assess similarities and differences, and develop recommendations for a consistent CRA approach, acceptable across each level as a rigorous scientific methodology, including partnership formation and solution development as necessary practices. Community, state, and federal examples were described and then summarized based on their adherence to CRA principles of: (1) planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2) risk analysis and ranking, and (3) risk characterization, interpretation, and management. While each application shared the common goal of protecting human health and the environment, they adopted different approaches to achieve this. For a specific project-level analysis of a particular place or instance, this may be acceptable, but to ensure long-term applicability and transferability to other projects, recommendations for developing a consistent approach to CRA are provided. This approach would draw from best practices, risk assessment and decision analysis sciences, and historical lessons learned to provide results in an understandable and accepted manner by all entities. This approach is intended to provide a common ground around which to develop CRA methods and approaches that can be followed at all levels. PMID:25918910

  13. Risk Governance of Multiple Natural Hazards: Centralized versus Decentralized Approach in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komendantova, Nadejda; Scolobig, Anna; Vinchon, Charlotte

    2014-05-01

    The multi-risk approach is a relatively new field and its definition includes the need to consider multiple hazards and vulnerabilities in their interdependency (Selva, 2013) and the current multi-hazards disasters, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and nuclear catastrophe, showed the need for a multi-risk approach in hazard mitigation and management. Our knowledge about multi-risk assessment, including studies from different scientific disciplines and developed assessment tools, is constantly growing (White et al., 2001). However, the link between scientific knowledge, its implementation and the results in terms of improved governance and decision-making have gained significantly less attention (IRGC, 2005; Kappes et al., 2012), even though the interest to risk governance, in general, has increased significantly during the last years (Verweiy and Thompson, 2006). Therefore, the key research question is how risk assessment is implemented and what is the potential for the implementation of a multi-risk approach in different governance systems across Europe. More precisely, how do the characteristics of risk governance, such as the degree of centralization versus decentralization, influence the implementation of a multi-risk approach. The methodology of this research includes comparative case study analysis of top-down and bottom-up interactions in governance in the city of Naples, (Italy), where the institutional landscape is marked by significant autonomy of Italian regions in decision-making processes for assessing the majority of natural risks, excluding volcanic, and in Guadeloupe, French West Indies, an overseas department of France, where the decision-making process is marked by greater centralization in decision making associated with a well established state governance within regions, delegated to the prefect and decentralised services of central ministries. The research design included documentary analysis and extensive empirical work involving

  14. Developing an effective policy for home hygiene: a risk-based approach.

    PubMed

    Bloomfield, S F; Scott, E A

    2003-06-01

    Evaluation of the infection potential in the home suggests that improved hygiene practice could significantly reduce the impact of infectious diseases. Fundamental to developing infection prevention policy for the home is the need to recognise that people live in an environment where all human activities occur, including food and water hygiene, hand hygiene, and hygiene related to care of vulnerable groups. In all these situations, reducing infection risks is based on the same underlying microbiological principles. In developing countries, disposal of human and animal excreta and other waste is often also the responsibility of the family and community. Adopting a holistic approach provides the opportunity for a rational approach to home hygiene based on risk assessment. The International Scientific Forum on Home Hygiene (IFH) believes that to deliver hygiene policy with real health benefits, a risk-based approach must be developed and promoted for the home. A risk-based approach starts from the principle that pathogens are introduced continually into homes on people, food and water, pets, insects and air. Inadequate disposal of human and animal excreta serves to increase this risk. Additionally, sites where stagnant water accumulates, such as sinks, toilets and cleaning cloths can support microbial growth and become a source of infection. By assessing the frequency occurrence of pathogens and potential pathogens on hands, hand and food contact surfaces, laundry, reservoir and reservoir/disseminator sites, together with the potential for transfer in the home, the exposure risk can be assessed. PMID:12775380

  15. An approach for integrating toxicogenomic data in risk assessment: The dibutyl phthalate case study

    SciTech Connect

    Euling, Susan Y.; Thompson, Chad M.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Benson, Robert

    2013-09-15

    An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and recommendations of the scientific community. Dibutyl phthalate (DBP) was selected for the case study exercise. The scoping phase of the dibutyl phthalate case study was conducted by considering the available DBP genomic data, taken together with the entire data set, for whether they could inform various risk assessment aspects, such as toxicodynamics, toxicokinetics, and dose–response. A description of weighing the available dibutyl phthalate data set for utility in risk assessment provides an example for considering genomic data for future chemical assessments. As a result of conducting the scoping process, two questions—Do the DBP toxicogenomic data inform 1) the mechanisms or modes of action?, and 2) the interspecies differences in toxicodynamics?—were selected to focus the case study exercise. Principles of the general approach include considering the genomics data in conjunction with all other data to determine their ability to inform the various qualitative and/or quantitative aspects of risk assessment, and evaluating the relationship between the available genomic and toxicity outcome data with respect to study comparability and phenotypic anchoring. Based on experience from the DBP case study, recommendations and a general approach for integrating genomic data in chemical assessment were developed to advance the broader effort to utilize 21st century data in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Performed DBP case study for integrating genomic data in risk assessment • Present approach for considering genomic data in chemical risk assessment • Present recommendations for use of genomic data in chemical risk assessment.

  16. A new approach to hazardous materials transportation risk analysis: decision modeling to identify critical variables.

    PubMed

    Clark, Renee M; Besterfield-Sacre, Mary E

    2009-03-01

    We take a novel approach to analyzing hazardous materials transportation risk in this research. Previous studies analyzed this risk from an operations research (OR) or quantitative risk assessment (QRA) perspective by minimizing or calculating risk along a transport route. Further, even though the majority of incidents occur when containers are unloaded, the research has not focused on transportation-related activities, including container loading and unloading. In this work, we developed a decision model of a hazardous materials release during unloading using actual data and an exploratory data modeling approach. Previous studies have had a theoretical perspective in terms of identifying and advancing the key variables related to this risk, and there has not been a focus on probability and statistics-based approaches for doing this. Our decision model empirically identifies the critical variables using an exploratory methodology for a large, highly categorical database involving latent class analysis (LCA), loglinear modeling, and Bayesian networking. Our model identified the most influential variables and countermeasures for two consequences of a hazmat incident, dollar loss and release quantity, and is one of the first models to do this. The most influential variables were found to be related to the failure of the container. In addition to analyzing hazmat risk, our methodology can be used to develop data-driven models for strategic decision making in other domains involving risk.

  17. Comparing environmental risks: a consultative approach to setting priorities at the community level.

    PubMed

    Guidotti, T L

    1994-01-01

    Environmental risk management is facing a crisis. The number of recognized environmental hazards has clearly outstripped the resources available to do detailed studies on each or to establish effective control measures for each on an individual basis. Some method of prioritizing environmental hazards is required that does not involve detailed and individualized quantitative risk assessment. An alternative approach that has gained favour in recent years has been "risk comparison", as sponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and as applied in several American states and local communities. Risk comparison is an approach that involves expert panels and the interested public in a consultative and iterative process leading to widespread agreement, if not consensus, on the relative rankings of often disparate environmental hazards. An outline of steps in the process formulated by the Northeast Center for Comparative Risk at the Vermont Law School is presented with commentary regarding its applicability to the Canadian scene. Implicit tradeoffs in risk comparison are also explored, including emphasis on categorical hazards v. media quality, magnitude of hazard v. population affected, ecological integrity v. human health, social concern v. scientific assessment, and novel v. familiar hazards. In practice, risk comparison is a process-oriented and often tedious approach, but it represents one way out of the current conundrum in dealing with environmental hazards. PMID:7708943

  18. A new approach to hazardous materials transportation risk analysis: decision modeling to identify critical variables.

    PubMed

    Clark, Renee M; Besterfield-Sacre, Mary E

    2009-03-01

    We take a novel approach to analyzing hazardous materials transportation risk in this research. Previous studies analyzed this risk from an operations research (OR) or quantitative risk assessment (QRA) perspective by minimizing or calculating risk along a transport route. Further, even though the majority of incidents occur when containers are unloaded, the research has not focused on transportation-related activities, including container loading and unloading. In this work, we developed a decision model of a hazardous materials release during unloading using actual data and an exploratory data modeling approach. Previous studies have had a theoretical perspective in terms of identifying and advancing the key variables related to this risk, and there has not been a focus on probability and statistics-based approaches for doing this. Our decision model empirically identifies the critical variables using an exploratory methodology for a large, highly categorical database involving latent class analysis (LCA), loglinear modeling, and Bayesian networking. Our model identified the most influential variables and countermeasures for two consequences of a hazmat incident, dollar loss and release quantity, and is one of the first models to do this. The most influential variables were found to be related to the failure of the container. In addition to analyzing hazmat risk, our methodology can be used to develop data-driven models for strategic decision making in other domains involving risk. PMID:19087232

  19. The Incremental Diagnostic Performance of Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography Added to Myocardial Perfusion Imaging in Patients with Intermediate-to-High Cardiovascular Risk

    PubMed Central

    Hsu, Pei-Ying; Lee, Wen-Jeng; Cheng, Mei-Fang; Yen, Ruoh-Fang; Tzen, Kai-Yuan; Wu, Yen-Wen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Several studies have suggested that a combined approach of stress myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) and coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) can provide diagnostic results with excellent accuracy. We aimed to explore whether the addition of CCTA to stress MPI provides incremental diagnostic value in intermediate-to-high cardiovascular risk patients. Methods A total of 106 consecutive patients (93 male, 65 ± 10.4 years) underwent coronary artery calcium scoring (CACS), CCTA and 201Thallium stress MPI before coronary angiography was reviewed. Thirty-seven patients (34.9%) had a history of proven coronary artery disease (CAD) or revascularization procedures, and four had documented non-significant CAD (3.8%). The remaining patients consisted of 17 (16.0%) classified as intermediate, and 48 (45.3%) as the high-risk groups. Results Obstructive CAD was diagnosed by invasive coronary angiography in 88 patients with 161 vessels. The sensitivity and specificity in a patient-based analysis for obstructive CAD were 99% and 17% for CCTA, 80% and 50% for MPI and 91% and 67% for the combined method, respectively. The per-vessel diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were 95% and 54% for CCTA, 59% and 75% for MPI and 84% and 76% for the combined method. There were significant differences (p < 0.05) when comparing the combined method with MPI or CCTA by areas under the curve in a patient- or vessel-based analysis. However, CACS of 400 or more could not further stratify the patients with obstructive CAD. Conclusions CCTA, not CACS, provided additional diagnostic values to stress MPI in patients with intermediate-to-high cardiovascular risk. PMID:27122945

  20. Where Lies the Risk? An Ecological Approach to Understanding Child Mental Health Risk and Vulnerabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa

    PubMed Central

    Atilola, Olayinka

    2014-01-01

    Efforts at improving child-health and development initiatives in sub-Saharan Africa had focused on the physical health of children due to the neglect of child and adolescent mental health (CAMH) policy initiatives. A thorough and broad-based understanding of the prevalent child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors is needed to successfully articulate CAMH policies. In this discourse, we present a narrative on the child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors in sub-Saharan Africa. Through an ecological point of view, we identified widespread family poverty, poor availability and uptake of childcare resources, inadequate community and institutional childcare systems, and inadequate framework for social protection for vulnerable children as among the risk and vulnerability factors for CAMH in the region. Others are poor workplace policy/practice that does not support work-family life balance, poor legislative framework for child protection, and some harmful traditional practices. We conclude that an ecological approach shows that child mental-health risks are diverse and cut across different layers of the care environment. The approach also provides a broad and holistic template from which appropriate CAMH policy direction in sub-Saharan Africa can be understood. PMID:24834431

  1. Plant-Based No Added Fat or American Heart Association Diets, Impact on Cardiovascular Risk in Obese Hypercholesterolemic Children and Their Parents

    PubMed Central

    Macknin, Michael; Kong, Tammie; Weier, Adam; Worley, Sarah; Tang, Anne S.; Alkhouri, Naim; Golubic, Mladen

    2015-01-01

    Objective To perform a randomized trial to determine if there is cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk reduction from a plant-based no added fat diet (PB) and the American Heart Association Diet (AHA) in children. Study design Four-week (4/20/2013-5/18/2013) prospective randomized trial in a large Midwestern hospital system’s predominantly middle class outpatient pediatric practices. Thirty children (9–18 years old) parent pairs with a last recorded child BMI >95th percentile and child cholesterol >169 mg/dL were randomized to PB or AHA with weekly 2-hour classes of nutrition education. Results Children on PB had nine and children on AHA had four statistically significant (P<0.05) beneficial changes from baseline (mean decreases): BMI Z-scorePB (−0.14), systolic blood pressurePB (−6.43 mm Hg), total cholesterolPB (−22.5 mg/dL), low density lipoproteinPB (−13.14 mg/dL), hsCRPPB (−2.09 mg/L), insulinPB (−5.42uU/ml), myeloperoxidasePB/AHA (−75.34/69.23 pmol/L), mid-arm circumferencePB/AHA (−2.02/−1.55 cm), weightPB/AHA (−3.05/ −1.14kg) and waist circumferenceAHA (−2.96 cm). Adults on PB and AHA had seven and two respectively statistically significant (P<0.05) beneficial changes. The significant change favoring AHA was a 1% difference in children’s waist circumference. Difficulty shopping for food for the PB was the only statistically significant acceptability barrier. Conclusions PB and the AHA in both children and adults demonstrated potentially beneficial changes from baseline in risk factors for CVD. Future larger, long-term randomized trials with easily accessible PB foods will further define the role of the PB in preventing CVD. PMID:25684089

  2. An approach for balancing health and ecological risks at hazardous waste sites.

    PubMed

    Suter, G W; Cornaby, B W; Hadden, C T; Hull, R N; Stack, M; Zafran, F A

    1995-04-01

    Human health and ecological risks must be balanced at hazardous waste sites in order to ensure that remedial actions prevent unacceptable risks of either type. Actions that are designed to protect humans may fail to protect nonhuman populations and ecosystems or may damage ecosystems. However, there is no common scale of health and ecological risk that would allow comparisons to be performed. This paper presents an approach to addressing this problem based on classifying all risks (i.e., health and ecological risks due contaminants and remediation) as insignificant (de minimis), highly significant (de manifestis), or intermediate. For health risks the classification is based on standard criteria. However, in the absence of national guidance concerning the acceptability of ecological risks, new ecological criteria are proposed based on an analysis of regulatory precedents. Matrices and flow charts are presented to guide the use of these risk categories in remedial decision making. The assessment of mercury contamination of the East Fork Poplar Creek is presented as an example of the implementation of the approach.

  3. Development of an Ad5H3 Chimera Using the “Antigen Capsid-Incorporation” Strategy for an Alternative Vaccination Approach

    PubMed Central

    Gu, Linlin; Icyuz, Mert; Krendelchtchikova, Valentina; Krendelchtchikov, Alexandre; Johnston, Alison E.; Matthews, Qiana L.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Adenovirus type 5 (Ad5) achieved success as a conventional transgene vaccine vector in preclinical trials, however; achieved poor efficiency in some of the clinical trials, due to the major hurdle associated with Ad5 pre-existing immunity (PEI) in the majority of the human population. Objective: We sought to generate Ad5-based chimeras to assess their capabilities to bypass this bottleneck and to induce antigen-specific humoral immune response. Methods: A His6 tag was incorporated into the hypervariable region 2 (HVR2) of hexon3 (H3) capsid protein using the “Antigen Capsid-Incorporation” strategy. This lead to the construction of a viral chimera, Ad5H3-HVR2-His. Ad5H3 was generated previously by substituting the hexon of Ad5 (hexon5) with the hexon from adenovirus type 3 (Ad3). Results: His6 was presented on the viral capsid surface and recognized by a His6 antibody. An in vitro neutralization assay with Ad5 sera indicated the ability of Ad5 chimeras to partially escape Ad5 immunity. Immunization with Ad5H3-HVR2-His generated significant humoral response to the incorporated tagged peptide, when compared to the immunizations with controls. Conclusion: Based on our in vitro studies the data suggested that Ad5H3 as a novel chimeric vaccine platform yields the possibility to escape Ad5 neutralization, and the potential to generate robust humoral immunity against incorporated antigens using the “Antigen Capsid-Incorporation” strategy. PMID:27335626

  4. Risk for self-reported anorexia or bulimia nervosa based on drive for thinness and negative affect clusters/dimensions during adolescence: A three-year prospective study of the TChAD cohort

    PubMed Central

    Peñas-Lledó, Eva; Bulik, Cynthia M.; Lichtenstein, Paul; Larsson, Henrik; Baker, Jessica H.

    2015-01-01

    Objective The present study explored the cross-sectional and predictive effect of drive for thinness and/or negative affect scores on the development of self-reported anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN). Method K-means were used to cluster the Eating Disorder Inventory-Drive for Thinness (DT) and Child Behavior Checklist Anxious/Depressed (A/D) scores from 615 unrelated female twins at age 16–17. Logistic regressions were used to assess the effect of these clusters on self-reported eating disorder diagnosis at ages 16–17 (n=565) and 19–20 (n=451). Results DT and A/D scores were grouped into four clusters: Mild (scores lower than 90th percentile on both scales), DT (higher scores only on DT), A/D (higher scores only on A/D), and DT-A/D (higher scores on both the DT and A/D scales). DT and DT-A/D clusters at age 16–17 were associated cross-sectionally with AN and both cross-sectionally and longitudinally with BN. The DT-A/D cluster had the highest prevalence of AN at follow-up compared with all other clusters. Similarly, an interaction was observed between DT and A/D that predicted risk for AN. Discussion Having elevated DT and A/D scores may increase risk for eating disorder symptomatology above and beyond a high score on either alone. Findings suggest that cluster modeling based on DT and A/D may be useful to inform novel and useful intervention strategies for AN and BN in adolescents. PMID:26013185

  5. QuickSilver Clinical Tracker – a Risk-Management Approach

    PubMed Central

    Rosenthal, Daniel T.; Chueh, Henry

    2003-01-01

    While many guidelines strive to automate the high-granular clinical thought process, the resulting risk stratification is often a lowgranular management class (i.e. low, medium or high risk). Furthermore, the “low hanging fruit” of guidelines is not in decision support, rather in the subsequent action tracking. Therefore, we believe that only a small amount of data is required to produce significant reminders. In our approach, the clinician risk-stratifies the patient and enters the guideline at the management level. We do not attempt to replicate the clinical thought process; rather we ask the question, “Now that you have decided, how can we help track your decisions?” A risk-management approach encapsulates salient guideline features and provides a framework for basic decision support and data tracking. PMID:14728492

  6. Visuospatial memory in healthy elderly, AD and MCI: a review.

    PubMed

    Iachini, Ina; Iavarone, Alessandro; Senese, Vincenzo Paolo; Ruotolo, Francesco; Ruggiero, Gennaro

    2009-03-01

    In the literature it is commonly reported that several spatial abilities decline with normal aging, even though such a decline is not uniform. So far, it is not yet clear which spatial components present a normal age-related decline, which ones are preserved and at what point the deficit is so severe to represent an index of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or a symptom of potential degenerative progression as in the early-stage Alzheimer's disease (AD). In particular, AD (from early onset) is characterised by impairments in constructive abilities, visuospatial intelligence, spatial short-term memory deficits, and disorders of spatial orientation (topographical disorientation). MCI indicates a condition, generally affecting older individuals, characterized by cognitive deficits including memory and/or non memory impairments and at high risk of progression to dementia. Three MCI subgroups have been distinguished and a very high risk of developing AD is associated to the amnestic MCI subtypes. Further, recent studies have suggested that the allocentric component of spatial memory might be taken as predictor of AD from MCI. Given the frequency of visuospatial deficits in early-stage AD, evaluation of visuospatial processes is a promising approach to find predictive markers of AD. Here we report a review of the literature exploring specific visuospatial components in normal aging, MCI, and AD. In this way we could shed some light on the role of these components in the progression from MCI to AD and pave the way for future studies.

  7. Comparison of a Traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approach with Advanced Safety Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Curtis L; Mandelli, Diego; Zhegang Ma

    2014-11-01

    As part of the Light Water Sustainability Program (LWRS) [1], the purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) [2] Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margin management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs. In this paper, we describe the RISMC analysis process illustrating how mechanistic and probabilistic approaches are combined in order to estimate a safety margin. We use the scenario of a “station blackout” (SBO) wherein offsite power and onsite power is lost, thereby causing a challenge to plant safety systems. We describe the RISMC approach, illustrate the station blackout modeling, and contrast this with traditional risk analysis modeling for this type of accident scenario. We also describe our approach we are using to represent advanced flooding analysis.

  8. Combined state-adding and state-deleting approaches to type III multi-step rationally extended potentials: Applications to ladder operators and superintegrability

    SciTech Connect

    Marquette, Ian; Quesne, Christiane

    2014-11-15

    Type III multi-step rationally extended harmonic oscillator and radial harmonic oscillator potentials, characterized by a set of k integers m{sub 1}, m{sub 2}, ⋯, m{sub k}, such that m{sub 1} < m{sub 2} < ⋯ < m{sub k} with m{sub i} even (resp. odd) for i odd (resp. even), are considered. The state-adding and state-deleting approaches to these potentials in a supersymmetric quantum mechanical framework are combined to construct new ladder operators. The eigenstates of the Hamiltonians are shown to separate into m{sub k} + 1 infinite-dimensional unitary irreducible representations of the corresponding polynomial Heisenberg algebras. These ladder operators are then used to build a higher-order integral of motion for seven new infinite families of superintegrable two-dimensional systems separable in cartesian coordinates. The finite-dimensional unitary irreducible representations of the polynomial algebras of such systems are directly determined from the ladder operator action on the constituent one-dimensional Hamiltonian eigenstates and provide an algebraic derivation of the superintegrable systems whole spectrum including the level total degeneracies.

  9. Multi-hazard national-level risk assessment in Africa using global approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Murnane, Richard

    2016-04-01

    In recent years Sub-Saharan Africa has been characterized by unprecedented opportunity for transformation and sustained growth. However, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and extreme temperatures cause significant economic and human losses, and major development challenges. Quantitative disaster risk assessments are an important basis for governments to understand disaster risk in their country, and to develop effective risk management and risk financing solutions. However, the data-scarce nature of many Sub-Saharan African countries as well as a lack of financing for risk assessments has long prevented detailed analytics. Recent advances in globally applicable disaster risk modelling practices and data availability offer new opportunities. In December 2013 the European Union approved a € 60 million contribution to support the development of an analytical basis for risk financing and to accelerate the effective implementation of a comprehensive disaster risk reduction. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) was selected as the implementing partner of the Program for Result Area 5: the "Africa Disaster Risk Assessment and Financing Program." As part of this effort, the GFDRR is overseeing the production of national-level multi-hazard risk profiles for a range of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, using a combination of national and global datasets and state-of-the-art hazard and risk assessment methodologies. In this presentation, we will highlight the analytical approach behind these assessments, and show results for the first five countries for which the assessment has been completed (Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Niger and Ethiopia). The presentation will also demonstrate the visualization of the risk assessments into understandable and visually attractive risk profile documents.

  10. Electrophysiologic testing guided risk stratification approach for sudden cardiac death beyond the left ventricular ejection fraction.

    PubMed

    Gatzoulis, Konstantinos A; Tsiachris, Dimitris; Arsenos, Petros; Tousoulis, Dimitris

    2016-01-26

    Sudden cardiac death threats ischaemic and dilated cardiomyopathy patients. Anti- arrhythmic protection may be provided to these patients with implanted cardiac defibrillators (ICD), after an efficient risk stratification approach. The proposed risk stratifier of an impaired left ventricular ejection fraction has limited sensitivity meaning that a significant number of victims will remain undetectable by this risk stratification approach because they have a preserved left ventricular systolic function. Current risk stratification strategies focus on combinations of non invasive methods like T wave alternans, late potentials, heart rate turbulence, deceleration capacity and others, with invasive methods like the electrophysiologic study. In the presence of an electrically impaired substrate with formed post myocardial infarction fibrotic zones, programmed ventricular stimulation provides important prognostic information for the selection of the patients expected to benefit from an ICD implantation, while due to its high negative predictive value, patients at low risk level may also be detected. Clustering evidence from different research groups and electrophysiologic labs support an electrophysiologic testing guided risk stratification approach for sudden cardiac death. PMID:26839662

  11. Electrophysiologic testing guided risk stratification approach for sudden cardiac death beyond the left ventricular ejection fraction.

    PubMed

    Gatzoulis, Konstantinos A; Tsiachris, Dimitris; Arsenos, Petros; Tousoulis, Dimitris

    2016-01-26

    Sudden cardiac death threats ischaemic and dilated cardiomyopathy patients. Anti- arrhythmic protection may be provided to these patients with implanted cardiac defibrillators (ICD), after an efficient risk stratification approach. The proposed risk stratifier of an impaired left ventricular ejection fraction has limited sensitivity meaning that a significant number of victims will remain undetectable by this risk stratification approach because they have a preserved left ventricular systolic function. Current risk stratification strategies focus on combinations of non invasive methods like T wave alternans, late potentials, heart rate turbulence, deceleration capacity and others, with invasive methods like the electrophysiologic study. In the presence of an electrically impaired substrate with formed post myocardial infarction fibrotic zones, programmed ventricular stimulation provides important prognostic information for the selection of the patients expected to benefit from an ICD implantation, while due to its high negative predictive value, patients at low risk level may also be detected. Clustering evidence from different research groups and electrophysiologic labs support an electrophysiologic testing guided risk stratification approach for sudden cardiac death.

  12. Managing long-term polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon contaminated soils: a risk-based approach.

    PubMed

    Duan, Luchun; Naidu, Ravi; Thavamani, Palanisami; Meaklim, Jean; Megharaj, Mallavarapu

    2015-06-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a family of contaminants that consist of two or more aromatic rings fused together. Soils contaminated with PAHs pose significant risk to human and ecological health. Over the last 50 years, significant research has been directed towards the cleanup of PAH-contaminated soils to background level. However, this achieved only limited success especially with high molecular weight compounds. Notably, during the last 5-10 years, the approach to remediate PAH-contaminated soils has changed considerably. A risk-based prioritization of remediation interventions has become a valuable step in the management of contaminated sites. The hydrophobicity of PAHs underlines that their phase distribution in soil is strongly influenced by factors such as soil properties and ageing of PAHs within the soil. A risk-based approach recognizes that exposure and environmental effects of PAHs are not directly related to the commonly measured total chemical concentration. Thus, a bioavailability-based assessment using a combination of chemical analysis with toxicological assays and nonexhaustive extraction technique would serve as a valuable tool in risk-based approach for remediation of PAH-contaminated soils. In this paper, the fate and availability of PAHs in contaminated soils and their relevance to risk-based management of long-term contaminated soils are reviewed. This review may serve as guidance for the use of site-specific risk-based management methods.

  13. Safe system approach to reducing serious injury risk in motorcyclist collisions with fixed hazards.

    PubMed

    Bambach, M R; Mitchell, R J

    2015-01-01

    Collisions with fixed objects in the roadway environment account for a substantial proportion of motorcyclist fatalities. Many studies have identified individual roadway environment and/or motorcyclist characteristics that are associated with the severity of the injury outcome, including the presence of roadside barriers, helmet use, alcohol use and speeding. However, no studies have reported the cumulative benefit of such characteristics on motorcycling safety. The safe system approach recognises that the system must work as a whole to reduce the net injury risk to road users to an acceptable level, including the four system cornerstone areas of roadways, speeds, vehicles and people. The aim of the present paper is to consider these cornerstone areas concomitantly, and quantitatively assess the serious injury risk of motorcyclists in fixed object collisions using this holistic approach. A total of 1006 Australian and 15,727 (weighted) United States motorcyclist-fixed object collisions were collected retrospectively, and the serious injury risks associated with roadside barriers, helmet use, alcohol use and speeding were assessed both individually and concomitantly. The results indicate that if safety efforts are made in each of the safe system cornerstone areas, the combined effect is to substantially reduce the serious injury risk of fixed hazards to motorcyclists. The holistic approach is shown to reduce the serious injury risk considerably more than each of the safety efforts considered individually. These results promote the use of a safe system approach to motorcycling safety. PMID:24974348

  14. Safe system approach to reducing serious injury risk in motorcyclist collisions with fixed hazards.

    PubMed

    Bambach, M R; Mitchell, R J

    2015-01-01

    Collisions with fixed objects in the roadway environment account for a substantial proportion of motorcyclist fatalities. Many studies have identified individual roadway environment and/or motorcyclist characteristics that are associated with the severity of the injury outcome, including the presence of roadside barriers, helmet use, alcohol use and speeding. However, no studies have reported the cumulative benefit of such characteristics on motorcycling safety. The safe system approach recognises that the system must work as a whole to reduce the net injury risk to road users to an acceptable level, including the four system cornerstone areas of roadways, speeds, vehicles and people. The aim of the present paper is to consider these cornerstone areas concomitantly, and quantitatively assess the serious injury risk of motorcyclists in fixed object collisions using this holistic approach. A total of 1006 Australian and 15,727 (weighted) United States motorcyclist-fixed object collisions were collected retrospectively, and the serious injury risks associated with roadside barriers, helmet use, alcohol use and speeding were assessed both individually and concomitantly. The results indicate that if safety efforts are made in each of the safe system cornerstone areas, the combined effect is to substantially reduce the serious injury risk of fixed hazards to motorcyclists. The holistic approach is shown to reduce the serious injury risk considerably more than each of the safety efforts considered individually. These results promote the use of a safe system approach to motorcycling safety.

  15. A skin sensitization risk assessment approach for evaluation of new ingredients and products.

    PubMed

    Gerberick, G F; Robinson, M K

    2000-06-01

    Skin sensitization risk assessment of new ingredients or products is critical before their introduction into the marketplace. The risk assessment process described in this article involves evaluation of skin sensitization hazard, consideration of all potential human exposures, comparative ingredient/product benchmarking, and, when appropriate, the management of the risk. In this article, a risk assessment process is reviewed along with a description of the risk assessment tools that are employed for evaluating a new ingredient or product. The basic process we use for evaluating the skin sensitization risk of a new product or ingredient is considered a no effect/safety factor approach. The tools used for conducting a risk assessment include structure activity relationship analysis, exposure assessment, preclinical testing (e.g., local lymph node assay [LNNA]) and clinical testing (e.g., human repeat insult patch testing [HRIPT]). The skin sensitization risk assessment process described in this paper has been used successfully for many years for the safe introduction of new products into the marketplace. This process is dynamic--it can be applied to a diversity of product categories (e.g., shampoo, transdermal drug). In summary, the skin sensitization risk assessment process described in this article allows one to carefully assess the skin sensitization potential of a new ingredient or product so that it can be safely introduced into the marketplace.

  16. Risk analysis with a fuzzy-logic approach of a complex installation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peikert, Tim; Garbe, Heyno; Potthast, Stefan

    2016-09-01

    This paper introduces a procedural method based on fuzzy logic to analyze systematic the risk of an electronic system in an intentional electromagnetic environment (IEME). The method analyzes the susceptibility of a complex electronic installation with respect to intentional electromagnetic interference (IEMI). It combines the advantages of well-known techniques as fault tree analysis (FTA), electromagnetic topology (EMT) and Bayesian networks (BN) and extends the techniques with an approach to handle uncertainty. This approach uses fuzzy sets, membership functions and fuzzy logic to handle the uncertainty with probability functions and linguistic terms. The linguistic terms add to the risk analysis the knowledge from experts of the investigated system or environment.

  17. The Analysis of Rush Orders Risk in Supply Chain: A Simulation Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mahfouz, Amr; Arisha, Amr

    2011-01-01

    Satisfying customers by delivering demands at agreed time, with competitive prices, and in satisfactory quality level are crucial requirements for supply chain survival. Incidence of risks in supply chain often causes sudden disruptions in the processes and consequently leads to customers losing their trust in a company's competence. Rush orders are considered to be one of the main types of supply chain risks due to their negative impact on the overall performance, Using integrated definition modeling approaches (i.e. IDEF0 & IDEF3) and simulation modeling technique, a comprehensive integrated model has been developed to assess rush order risks and examine two risk mitigation strategies. Detailed functions sequence and objects flow were conceptually modeled to reflect on macro and micro levels of the studied supply chain. Discrete event simulation models were then developed to assess and investigate the mitigation strategies of rush order risks, the objective of this is to minimize order cycle time and cost.

  18. Dental Caries Risk Studies Revisited: Causal Approaches Needed for Future Inquiries

    PubMed Central

    Aleksejūnienė, Jolanta; Holst, Dorthe; Brukienė, Vilma

    2009-01-01

    Prediction of high-risk individuals and the multi-risk approach are common inquiries in caries risk epidemiology. These studies prepared the ground for future studies; specific hypotheses about causal patterns can now be formulated and tested applying advanced statistical methods designed for causal studies, such as structural equation modeling, path analysis and multilevel modeling. Causal studies should employ measurements, analyses and interpretation of findings, which are in accordance to causal aims. Examples of causal empirical studies from medical and oral research are presented. PMID:20049240

  19. Waste management project's alternatives: A risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach

    SciTech Connect

    Karmperis, Athanasios C.; Sotirchos, Anastasios; Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.

    2012-01-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We examine the evaluation of a waste management project's alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We present a novel risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer In the RBMCA the evaluation criteria are based on the quantitative risk analysis of the project's alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers' risk preferences is examined. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Preference to the multi-criteria against the one-criterion evaluation process is discussed. - Abstract: This paper examines the evaluation of a waste management project's alternatives through a quantitative risk analysis. Cost benefit analysis is a widely used method, in which the investments are mainly assessed through the calculation of their evaluation indicators, namely benefit/cost (B/C) ratios, as well as the quantification of their financial, technical, environmental and social risks. Herein, a novel approach in the form of risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) is introduced, which can be used by decision makers, in order to select the optimum alternative of a waste management project. Specifically, decision makers use multiple criteria, which are based on the cumulative probability distribution functions of the alternatives' B/C ratios. The RBMCA system is used for the evaluation of a waste incineration project's alternatives, where the correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers' risk preferences is analyzed and useful conclusions are discussed.

  20. Integrating renewable energy technologies in the electric supply industry: A risk management approach

    SciTech Connect

    Hoff, T.E.

    1997-07-01

    Regulatory and technical forces are causing electric utilities to move from a natural monopoly to a more competitive environment. Associated with this movement is an increasing concern about how to manage the risks associated with the electric supply business. One approach to managing risks is to purchase financial instruments such as options and futures contracts. Another approach is to own physical assets that have low risk attributes or characteristics. This research evaluates how investments in renewable energy technologies can mitigate risks in the electric supply industry. It identifies risks that are known to be of concern to utilities and other power producers. These risks include uncertainty in fuel prices, demand, environmental regulations, capital cost, supply, and market structure. The research then determines how investments in renewables can mitigate these risks. Methods are developed to calculate the value of renewables in terms of their attributes of fuel costs, environmental costs, lead-time, modularity, availability, initial capital costs, and investment reversibility. Examples illustrate how to apply the methods.

  1. From network analysis to risk analysis--An approach to risk-based surveillance for bovine tuberculosis in Minnesota, US.

    PubMed

    Ribeiro-Lima, J; Enns, E A; Thompson, B; Craft, M E; Wells, S J

    2015-03-01

    Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) was first detected in 2005 in cattle in northwestern Minnesota (MN) through slaughter surveillance. By the end of 2008, 12 cattle herds were infected with bTB, and the main cause for infection was determined to be the movement of infected animals between herds. Bovine tuberculosis was contained in a smaller area in northwestern Minnesota classified as modified accredited (MA), corresponding to a prevalence inferior to 0.1% in cattle. From January 2008 to 2011, all cattle movements within the bTB MA were recorded electronically. The primary objectives of this study were to characterize cattle movements within this region and identify cattle herds with higher risk of bTB introduction based on network parameters and known risk factors from the published literature. During the period that data was collected, 57,460 cattle were moved in 3762 movements corresponding to permits issued to 682 premises, mostly representing private farms, sale yards, slaughter facilities and county or state fairs. Although sale yards represented less than 2% of the premises (nodes), 60% of the movements were to or from a sale yard. The network showed an overall density of 0.4%, a clustering coefficient of 14.6% and a betweenness centralization index of 12.7%, reflecting the low connectivity of this cattle network. The degree distribution showed that 20% of nodes performed 90% of the movements. Farms were ranked based on the total risk score and divided into high, medium, and low risk groups based on the score and its variability. The higher risk group included 14% (n=50) of the farms, corresponding to 80% of the cumulative risk for the farms in the bTB area. This analysis provides a baseline description about the contact structure of cattle movements in an area previously infected with bTB and develops a framework for a targeted surveillance approach for bTB to support future surveillance decisions.

  2. A moni-modelling approach to manage groundwater risk to pesticide leaching at regional scale.

    PubMed

    Di Guardo, Andrea; Finizio, Antonio

    2016-03-01

    Historically, the approach used to manage risk of chemical contamination of water bodies is based on the use of monitoring programmes, which provide a snapshot of the presence/absence of chemicals in water bodies. Monitoring is required in the current EU regulations, such as the Water Framework Directive (WFD), as a tool to record temporal variation in the chemical status of water bodies. More recently, a number of models have been developed and used to forecast chemical contamination of water bodies. These models combine information of chemical properties, their use, and environmental scenarios. Both approaches are useful for risk assessors in decision processes. However, in our opinion, both show flaws and strengths when taken alone. This paper proposes an integrated approach (moni-modelling approach) where monitoring data and modelling simulations work together in order to provide a common decision framework for the risk assessor. This approach would be very useful, particularly for the risk management of pesticides at a territorial level. It fulfils the requirement of the recent Sustainable Use of Pesticides Directive. In fact, the moni-modelling approach could be used to identify sensible areas where implement mitigation measures or limitation of use of pesticides, but even to effectively re-design future monitoring networks or to better calibrate the pedo-climatic input data for the environmental fate models. A case study is presented, where the moni-modelling approach is applied in Lombardy region (North of Italy) to identify groundwater vulnerable areas to pesticides. The approach has been applied to six active substances with different leaching behaviour, in order to highlight the advantages in using the proposed methodology. PMID:26747983

  3. A moni-modelling approach to manage groundwater risk to pesticide leaching at regional scale.

    PubMed

    Di Guardo, Andrea; Finizio, Antonio

    2016-03-01

    Historically, the approach used to manage risk of chemical contamination of water bodies is based on the use of monitoring programmes, which provide a snapshot of the presence/absence of chemicals in water bodies. Monitoring is required in the current EU regulations, such as the Water Framework Directive (WFD), as a tool to record temporal variation in the chemical status of water bodies. More recently, a number of models have been developed and used to forecast chemical contamination of water bodies. These models combine information of chemical properties, their use, and environmental scenarios. Both approaches are useful for risk assessors in decision processes. However, in our opinion, both show flaws and strengths when taken alone. This paper proposes an integrated approach (moni-modelling approach) where monitoring data and modelling simulations work together in order to provide a common decision framework for the risk assessor. This approach would be very useful, particularly for the risk management of pesticides at a territorial level. It fulfils the requirement of the recent Sustainable Use of Pesticides Directive. In fact, the moni-modelling approach could be used to identify sensible areas where implement mitigation measures or limitation of use of pesticides, but even to effectively re-design future monitoring networks or to better calibrate the pedo-climatic input data for the environmental fate models. A case study is presented, where the moni-modelling approach is applied in Lombardy region (North of Italy) to identify groundwater vulnerable areas to pesticides. The approach has been applied to six active substances with different leaching behaviour, in order to highlight the advantages in using the proposed methodology.

  4. An integrated fuzzy-stochastic modeling approach for risk assessment of groundwater contamination.

    PubMed

    Li, Jianbing; Huang, Gordon H; Zeng, Guangming; Maqsood, Imran; Huang, Yuefei

    2007-01-01

    An integrated fuzzy-stochastic risk assessment (IFSRA) approach was developed in this study to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with site conditions, environmental guidelines, and health impact criteria. The contaminant concentrations in groundwater predicted from a numerical model were associated with probabilistic uncertainties due to the randomness in modeling input parameters, while the consequences of contaminant concentrations violating relevant environmental quality guidelines and health evaluation criteria were linked with fuzzy uncertainties. The contaminant of interest in this study was xylene. The environmental quality guideline was divided into three different strictness categories: "loose", "medium" and "strict". The environmental-guideline-based risk (ER) and health risk (HR) due to xylene ingestion were systematically examined to obtain the general risk levels through a fuzzy rule base. The ER and HR risk levels were divided into five categories of "low", "low-to-medium", "medium", "medium-to-high" and "high", respectively. The general risk levels included six categories ranging from "low" to "very high". The fuzzy membership functions of the related fuzzy events and the fuzzy rule base were established based on a questionnaire survey. Thus the IFSRA integrated fuzzy logic, expert involvement, and stochastic simulation within a general framework. The robustness of the modeling processes was enhanced through the effective reflection of the two types of uncertainties as compared with the conventional risk assessment approaches. The developed IFSRA was applied to a petroleum-contaminated groundwater system in western Canada. Three scenarios with different environmental quality guidelines were analyzed, and reasonable results were obtained. The risk assessment approach developed in this study offers a unique tool for systematically quantifying various uncertainties in contaminated site management, and it also

  5. CONSIDERATIONS FOR DEVELOPING A DOSIMETRY-BASED CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT APPROACH FOR MIXTURES OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONTAMINANTS (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This final report, Considerations for Developing a Dosimetry-Based Cumulative Risk Assessment Approach for Mixtures of Environmental Contaminants, addresses the justification for developing physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for cumulative risk assessment....

  6. Development of a risk-based approach to Hanford Site cleanup

    SciTech Connect

    Hesser, W.A.; Daling, P.M.; Baynes, P.A.

    1995-06-01

    In response to a request from Mr. Thomas Grumbly, Assistant Secretary of Energy for Environmental Management, the Hanford Site contractors developed a conceptual set of risk-based cleanup strategies that (1) protect the public, workers, and environment from unacceptable risks; (2) are executable technically; and (3) fit within an expected annual funding profile of 1.05 billion dollars. These strategies were developed because (1) the US Department of Energy and Hanford Site budgets are being reduced, (2) stakeholders are dissatisfied with the perceived rate of cleanup, (3) the US Congress and the US Department of Energy are increasingly focusing on risk and riskreduction activities, (4) the present strategy is not integrated across the Site and is inconsistent in its treatment of similar hazards, (5) the present cleanup strategy is not cost-effective from a risk-reduction or future land use perspective, and (6) the milestones and activities in the Tri-Party Agreement cannot be achieved with an anticipated funding of 1.05 billion dollars annually. The risk-based strategies described herein were developed through a systems analysis approach that (1) analyzed the cleanup mission; (2) identified cleanup objectives, including risk reduction, land use, and mortgage reduction; (3) analyzed the existing baseline cleanup strategy from a cost and risk perspective; (4) developed alternatives for accomplishing the cleanup mission; (5) compared those alternatives against cleanup objectives; and (6) produced conclusions and recommendations regarding the current strategy and potential risk-based strategies.

  7. Review of ecological-based risk management approaches used at five Army Superfund sites.

    PubMed

    Poucher, Sherri L; Tracey, Gregory A; Johnson, Mark S; Haines, Laurie B

    2012-04-01

    Factors used in environmental remedial decision making concerning ecological risk are not well understood or necessarily consistent. Recent Records of Decision (RODs) for Army CERCLA sites were reviewed to select case studies where remedial management occurred in response to ecological risks. Thirty-four Army RODs were evaluated representing decisions promulgated between 1996 and 2004. Five were selected based on assessments that remedial actions were clearly linked to concern for ecological receptors. The Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) approach and the subsequent risk management process were reviewed for each site. The case studies demonstrated that the ERA findings, as well as critical management decisions regarding interpretation of identified ecological risks, were determinants of remedial action objectives. Decisions regarding the selection of remedial alternatives were based on a set of criteria prescribed by Superfund requirements and guidance. Remedial alternative evaluations require protection of human health and the environment, but protective conditions were determined using different methods at each site. Examining the remedial management process for the 5 case study sites revealed that uncertainty in the risk assessment and decisions regarding appropriate spatial scales for both risk assessment and remediation were important factors influencing remedial action decisions. The case reviews also revealed that levels of documentation were variable from site to site. In the future, more detailed documentation of decision criteria and the development of criteria that consider the resilience of the site will result in more technically defensible ecological risk management. PMID:22025287

  8. Determining the familial risk distribution of colorectal cancer: a data mining approach.

    PubMed

    Chau, Rowena; Jenkins, Mark A; Buchanan, Daniel D; Ait Ouakrim, Driss; Giles, Graham G; Casey, Graham; Gallinger, Steven; Haile, Robert W; Le Marchand, Loic; Newcomb, Polly A; Lindor, Noralane M; Hopper, John L; Win, Aung Ko

    2016-04-01

    This study was aimed to characterize the distribution of colorectal cancer risk using family history of cancers by data mining. Family histories for 10,066 colorectal cancer cases recruited to population cancer registries of the Colon Cancer Family Registry were analyzed using a data mining framework. A novel index was developed to quantify familial cancer aggregation. Artificial neural network was used to identify distinct categories of familial risk. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of colorectal cancer were calculated for each category. We identified five major, and 66 minor categories of familial risk for developing colorectal cancer. The distribution the major risk categories were: (1) 7% of families (SIR = 7.11; 95% CI 6.65-7.59) had a strong family history of colorectal cancer; (2) 13% of families (SIR = 2.94; 95% CI 2.78-3.10) had a moderate family history of colorectal cancer; (3) 11% of families (SIR = 1.23; 95% CI 1.12-1.36) had a strong family history of breast cancer and a weak family history of colorectal cancer; (4) 9 % of families (SIR = 1.06; 95 % CI 0.96-1.18) had strong family history of prostate cancer and weak family history of colorectal cancer; and (5) 60% of families (SIR = 0.61; 95% CI 0.57-0.65) had a weak family history of all cancers. There is a wide variation of colorectal cancer risk that can be categorized by family history of cancer, with a strong gradient of colorectal cancer risk between the highest and lowest risk categories. The risk of colorectal cancer for people with the highest risk category of family history (7% of the population) was 12-times that for people in the lowest risk category (60%) of the population. Data mining was proven an effective approach for gaining insight into the underlying cancer aggregation patterns and for categorizing familial risk of colorectal cancer.

  9. The Added-Value of Using Participatory Approaches to Assess the Acceptability of Surveillance Systems: The Case of Bovine Tuberculosis in Belgium

    PubMed Central

    Calba, Clémentine; Goutard, Flavie Luce; Vanholme, Luc; Antoine-Moussiaux, Nicolas; Hendrikx, Pascal; Saegerman, Claude

    2016-01-01

    added value of the participatory approach was highlighted. PMID:27462705

  10. APPLICATION OF A TIERED SURROGATE APPROACH TO IDENTIFY TOXICITY SURROGATES FOR HUMAN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    APPLICATION OF A TIERED SURROGATE APPROACH TO IDENTIFY TOXICITY SURROGATES FOR HUMAN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT. P.R. Dodmane1, L.E. Lizarraga1, J.P. Kaiser2, S.C. Wesselkamper2, Q.J. Zhao2. 1ORISE Participant, U.S. EPA, National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA), Cincinnati...

  11. DEVELOPING MECHANISTIC DATA FOR INCORPORATION INTO CANCER AND GENETIC RISK ASSESSMENTS: OLD PROBLEMS AND NEW APPROACHES

    EPA Science Inventory

    26th Lauriston S. Taylor Lecture
    DEVELOPING MECHANISTIC DATA FOR INCORPORATION INTO CANCER AND
    GENETIC RISK ASSESSMENTS: OLD PROBLEMS AND NEW APPROACHES
    R. Julian Preston, Environmental Carcinogenesis Division, U.S. Environmental Protection
    Agency, NHEERL, Research Tr...

  12. The STD and HIV Epidemics in African American Youth: Reconceptualizing Approaches to Risk Reduction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, Kim S.; Boyer, Cherrie B.; Cotton, Garnette

    2004-01-01

    Sexually transmitted infections, including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), disproportionately affect African American adolescents and young adults. Many of our current strategies and approaches have been inadequate in the promotion of risk reduction among youth and need to be reconceptualized. This article identifies issues that may guide…

  13. Gendered Perspectives about Water Risks and Policy Strategies: A Tripartite Conceptual Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larson, Kelli L.; Ibes, Dorothy C.; White, Dave D.

    2011-01-01

    Previous research has examined gendered perspectives on a variety of environmental risks. Mixed results complicate the ability to make generalizations about human-ecological judgments, largely because of the use of inconsistent conceptual and methodological approaches in previous work. Following the tripartite model, we examine differences between…

  14. Mitigating Real or Perceived Risks: A Pro-Active Approach for Dealing with Naysayers and Critics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schutte, Bart; Jones, Kevin

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews an approach to mitigating real or perceived risks from "Naysayers" and critics in developing and using the software tools available with web 2.0. Some of the issues are about the use of the tools, the ability of management to control the use of these tools, privacy issues and the time the people spend using these tools.

  15. A systematic risk management approach employed on the CloudSat project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basilio, R. R.; Plourde, K. S.; Lam, T.

    2000-01-01

    The CloudSat Project has developed a simplified approach for fault tree analysis and probabilistic risk assessment. A system-level fault tree has been constructed to identify credible fault scenarios and failure modes leading up to a potential failure to meet the nominal mission success criteria.

  16. A Risk and Standards Based Approach to Quality Assurance in Australia's Diverse Higher Education Sector

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Australian Government Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency, 2015

    2015-01-01

    The Australian Government Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency's (TEQSA's) role is to assure that quality standards are being met by all registered higher education providers. This paper explains how TEQSA's risk-based approach to assuring higher education standards is applied in broad terms to a diverse sector. This explanation is…

  17. The Baby TALK Model: An Innovative Approach to Identifying High-Risk Children and Families

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Villalpando, Aimee Hilado; Leow, Christine; Hornstein, John

    2012-01-01

    This research report examines the Baby TALK model, an innovative early childhood intervention approach used to identify, recruit, and serve young children who are at-risk for developmental delays, mental health needs, and/or school failure, and their families. The report begins with a description of the model. This description is followed by an…

  18. Scattering States in AdS/CFT

    SciTech Connect

    Fitzpatrick, A.Liam; Kaplan, Jared; /SLAC

    2012-02-14

    We show that suitably regulated multi-trace primary states in large N CFTs behave like 'in' and 'out' scattering states in the flat-space limit of AdS. Their transition matrix elements approach the exact scattering amplitudes for the bulk theory, providing a natural CFT definition of the flat space S-Matrix. We study corrections resulting from the AdS curvature and particle propagation far from the center of AdS, and show that AdS simply provides an IR regulator that disappears in the flat space limit.

  19. An approach towards a parameterised model for risk assessment of hydraulic fracturing operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gläser, Dennis; Class, Holger; Kissinger, Alexander; Beck, Martin

    2016-04-01

    The main ambition of the recently started research project FracRisk (funded within the EU Horizon 2020 programme) is the development of a comprehensive knowledge base and the formulation of scientific recommendations, which can contribute to efforts aimed at minimising the environmental footprint of shale gas production while addressing scientific and public concerns. Forward numerical modelling linked to a detailed risk and uncertainty assessment is applied for estimating the mechanical, hydromechanical, and geochemical consequences resulting from hydraulic fracturing. To capture a broad range of environmental risks, six exemplary scenarios focussing on different physical processes on different spatial and temporal scales are investigated. An approach regarding sources, pathways and targets is used for the quantification of the environmental impacts. A fundamental understanding of the potential risks is achieved by allowing for mutual feedback between the scenarios, identifying key parameters and processes. The coupling of the scenarios to a Polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) paves the way to an abstracted and parameterised model for risk assessment to be used both by regulators and contractors. This contribution at an early stage of the project will elaborate on the general workflow of implementing focussed scenarios into a PCE-based Monte-Carlo approach to parameter sensitivities, that will eventually be embedded into a FEP-based (features, events, processes) evaluation of risk and counteractive measures.

  20. Managing physician lipid management: a population wide, risk-based decision support approach.

    PubMed

    Rubenstein, Lisa V

    2015-01-01

    Successful implementation of clinical guidelines for preventing complications of dyslipidemias has been an ongoing challenge. The article by Vinker and colleagues in this journal investigates the results of implementing risk-based guidelines for LDL (Low Density Lipoprotein) management in comparison to the prior approach of using the same LDL cutoff for patients at all levels of risk. Results show LDL levels dropped across the primary care population using the new risk-based approach, suggesting that clinical decision aids that link to individual patient characteristics, rather than promoting a universal target for all, may provide a particularly strong stimulus for changing provider and patient behavior. Results also challenge healthcare organizations, providers and patients to learn more about the pathway from guidelines to clinical reminders and from reminders to lower LDL levels and better population health. PMID:26175893

  1. Risks and benefits of a family systems approach to medical care.

    PubMed

    Baird, M A; Doherty, W J

    1990-01-01

    The "art of medicine" is struggling for survival in medical education, practice, and research. The authors embrace the biopsychosocial model as an ideal new paradigm for medicine and propose that the family systems approach provides the best available vehicle for applying the biopsychosocial model to everyday medical practice and research. Such an approach would require major changes in the way health care is delivered and offers both benefits and risks for family physicians to consider. One important change would involve the sharing of physicians' power in a health care system that emphasizes collaboration among individuals, families, and a variety of professionals. Such revolutionary changes should be approached with caution. PMID:2227178

  2. Map Your Hazards! - an Interdisciplinary, Place-Based Educational Approach to Assessing Natural Hazards, Social Vulnerability, Risk and Risk Perception.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brand, B. D.; McMullin-Messier, P. A.; Schlegel, M. E.

    2014-12-01

    'Map your Hazards' is an educational module developed within the NSF Interdisciplinary Teaching about Earth for a Sustainable Future program (InTeGrate). The module engages students in place-based explorations of natural hazards, social vulnerability, and the perception of natural hazards and risk. Students integrate geoscience and social science methodologies to (1) identify and assess hazards, vulnerability and risk within their communities; (2) distribute, collect and evaluate survey data (designed by authors) on the knowledge, risk perception and preparedness within their social networks; and (3) deliver a PPT presentation to local stakeholders detailing their findings and recommendations for development of a prepared, resilient community. 'Map your Hazards' underwent four rigorous assessments by a team of geoscience educators and external review before being piloted in our classrooms. The module was piloted in a 300-level 'Volcanoes and Society' course at Boise State University, a 300-level 'Environmental Sociology' course at Central Washington University, and a 100-level 'Natural Disasters and Environmental Geology' course at the College of Western Idaho. In all courses students reported a fascination with learning about the hazards around them and identifying the high risk areas in their communities. They were also surprised at the low level of knowledge, inaccurate risk perception and lack of preparedness of their social networks. This successful approach to engaging students in an interdisciplinary, place-based learning environment also has the broad implications of raising awareness of natural hazards (survey participants are provided links to local hazard and preparedness information). The data and preparedness suggestions can be shared with local emergency managers, who are encouraged to attend the student's final presentations. All module materials are published at serc.carleton.edu/integrate/ and are appropriate to a wide range of classrooms.

  3. Interventionist and participatory approaches to flood risk mitigation decisions: two case studies in the Italian Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bianchizza, C.; Del Bianco, D.; Pellizzoni, L.; Scolobig, A.

    2012-04-01

    Flood risk mitigation decisions pose key challenges not only from a technical but also from a social, economic and political viewpoint. There is an increasing demand for improving the quality of these processes by including different stakeholders - and especially by involving the local residents in the decision making process - and by guaranteeing the actual improvement of local social capacities during and after the decision making. In this paper we analyse two case studies of flood risk mitigation decisions, Malborghetto-Valbruna and Vipiteno-Sterzing, in the Italian Alps. In both of them, mitigation works have been completed or planned, yet following completely different approaches especially in terms of responses of residents and involvement of local authorities. In Malborghetto-Valbruna an 'interventionist' approach (i.e. leaning towards a top down/technocratic decision process) was used to make decisions after the flood event that affected the municipality in the year 2003. In Vipiteno-Sterzing, a 'participatory' approach (i.e. leaning towards a bottom-up/inclusive decision process) was applied: decisions about risk mitigation measures were made by submitting different projects to the local citizens and by involving them in the decision making process. The analysis of the two case studies presented in the paper is grounded on the results of two research projects. Structured and in-depth interviews, as well as questionnaire surveys were used to explore residents' and local authorities' orientations toward flood risk mitigation. Also a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) involving key stakeholders was used to better understand the characteristics of the communities and their perception of flood risk mitigation issues. The results highlight some key differences between interventionist and participatory approaches, together with some implications of their adoption in the local context. Strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches

  4. Identifying Risk and Protective Factors in Recidivist Juvenile Offenders: A Decision Tree Approach

    PubMed Central

    Ortega-Campos, Elena; García-García, Juan; Gil-Fenoy, Maria José; Zaldívar-Basurto, Flor

    2016-01-01

    Research on juvenile justice aims to identify profiles of risk and protective factors in juvenile offenders. This paper presents a study of profiles of risk factors that influence young offenders toward committing sanctionable antisocial behavior (S-ASB). Decision tree analysis is used as a multivariate approach to the phenomenon of repeated sanctionable antisocial behavior in juvenile offenders in Spain. The study sample was made up of the set of juveniles who were charged in a court case in the Juvenile Court of Almeria (Spain). The period of study of recidivism was two years from the baseline. The object of study is presented, through the implementation of a decision tree. Two profiles of risk and protective factors are found. Risk factors associated with higher rates of recidivism are antisocial peers, age at baseline S-ASB, problems in school and criminality in family members. PMID:27611313

  5. Credit risk and the instability of the financial system: An ensemble approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmitt, Thilo A.; Chetalova, Desislava; Schäfer, Rudi; Guhr, Thomas

    2014-02-01

    The instability of the financial system as experienced in recent years and in previous periods is often linked to credit defaults, i.e., to the failure of obligors to make promised payments. Given the large number of credit contracts, this problem is amenable to be treated with approaches developed in statistical physics. We introduce the idea of ensemble averaging and thereby uncover generic features of credit risk. We then show that the often advertised concept of diversification, i.e., reducing the risk by distributing it, is deeply flawed when it comes to credit risk. The risk of extreme losses remains due to the ever present correlations, implying a substantial and persistent intrinsic danger to the financial system.

  6. Identifying Risk and Protective Factors in Recidivist Juvenile Offenders: A Decision Tree Approach.

    PubMed

    Ortega-Campos, Elena; García-García, Juan; Gil-Fenoy, Maria José; Zaldívar-Basurto, Flor

    2016-01-01

    Research on juvenile justice aims to identify profiles of risk and protective factors in juvenile offenders. This paper presents a study of profiles of risk factors that influence young offenders toward committing sanctionable antisocial behavior (S-ASB). Decision tree analysis is used as a multivariate approach to the phenomenon of repeated sanctionable antisocial behavior in juvenile offenders in Spain. The study sample was made up of the set of juveniles who were charged in a court case in the Juvenile Court of Almeria (Spain). The period of study of recidivism was two years from the baseline. The object of study is presented, through the implementation of a decision tree. Two profiles of risk and protective factors are found. Risk factors associated with higher rates of recidivism are antisocial peers, age at baseline S-ASB, problems in school and criminality in family members. PMID:27611313

  7. Approaches to assessing the risk of chemical contamination of Urban Soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Makarov, O. A.; Makarov, A. A.

    2016-09-01

    The existing approaches to studying the risk of chemical contamination of soils are analyzed. It is noted that the actual and critical loads of contaminants on the soil cover are often compared for estimating these risks. The insufficient use of economic tools and methods for assessing the risk of soil contamination is emphasized. The sanitary-hygienic standards are found out to be exceeded for lead, zinc, cadmium and copper content in soils in six localities, each of 6250 m2 in the area, situated in the industrial and transport zones of Podol'sk and Moscow. The values of actual and maximal permissible damage exerted by the heavy-metal contamination to the studied soils are calculated. The probable damage R and the degree of probable damage implementation (DPDI) are used as the indices of soil contamination risk.

  8. Monitoring schistosomiasis risk in East China over space and time using a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Hu, Yi; Ward, Michael P; Xia, Congcong; Li, Rui; Sun, Liqian; Lynn, Henry; Gao, Fenghua; Wang, Qizhi; Zhang, Shiqing; Xiong, Chenglong; Zhang, Zhijie; Jiang, Qingwu

    2016-01-01

    Schistosomiasis remains a major public health problem and causes substantial economic impact in east China, particularly along the Yangtze River Basin. Disease forecasting and surveillance can assist in the development and implementation of more effective intervention measures to control disease. In this study, we applied a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model to describe trends in schistosomiasis risk in Anhui Province, China, using annual parasitological and environmental data for the period 1997-2010. A computationally efficient approach-Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation-was used for model inference. A zero-inflated, negative binomial model best described the spatio-temporal dynamics of schistosomiasis risk. It predicted that the disease risk would generally be low and stable except for some specific, local areas during the period 2011-2014. High-risk counties were identified in the forecasting maps: three in which the risk remained high, and two in which risk would become high. The results indicated that schistosomiasis risk has been reduced to consistently low levels throughout much of this region of China; however, some counties were identified in which progress in schistosomiasis control was less than satisfactory. Whilst maintaining overall control, specific interventions in the future should focus on these refractive counties as part of a strategy to eliminate schistosomiasis from this region.

  9. Assessment of cardiovascular risk based on a data-driven knowledge discovery approach.

    PubMed

    Mendes, D; Paredes, S; Rocha, T; Carvalho, P; Henriques, J; Cabiddu, R; Morais, J

    2015-01-01

    The cardioRisk project addresses the development of personalized risk assessment tools for patients who have been admitted to the hospital with acute myocardial infarction. Although there are models available that assess the short-term risk of death/new events for such patients, these models were established in circumstances that do not take into account the present clinical interventions and, in some cases, the risk factors used by such models are not easily available in clinical practice. The integration of the existing risk tools (applied in the clinician's daily practice) with data-driven knowledge discovery mechanisms based on data routinely collected during hospitalizations, will be a breakthrough in overcoming some of these difficulties. In this context, the development of simple and interpretable models (based on recent datasets), unquestionably will facilitate and will introduce confidence in this integration process. In this work, a simple and interpretable model based on a real dataset is proposed. It consists of a decision tree model structure that uses a reduced set of six binary risk factors. The validation is performed using a recent dataset provided by the Portuguese Society of Cardiology (11113 patients), which originally comprised 77 risk factors. A sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of, respectively, 80.42%, 77.25% and 78.80% were achieved showing the effectiveness of the approach.

  10. A developmental approach to the risk of a first recurrence in child protective services.

    PubMed

    Hélie, Sonia; Laurier, Catherine; Pineau-Villeneuve, Catherine; Royer, Marie-Noële

    2013-12-01

    The objective of this study is to estimate the risk of a first recurrence over a five-year period following initial child protective services (CPS) intervention and identify the characteristics associated with the risk of recurrence for three different age groups. Recurrence is defined as the first substantiated report within the observation period after initial services have ended. The study involved a cohort of 25,897 Quebec children who received postinvestigation services for the first time and whose cases were closed between 2005 and 2009. Survival analysis was used to estimate the five-year risk of recurrence and Cox regression to model the risk of recurrence for three age groups. The covariates introduced into the regression analyses were characteristics of the child and initial services. The risk of recurrence in the five years following termination of initial CPS services was 36% for the entire cohort and varied depending on the child's age at the time of case closure. Children aged 6-11 when their cases were closed had the highest risk of recurrence. Although Aboriginal descent and prior CPS investigations have a consistent effect on the risk of recurrence in all three age groups, the effects of other covariates, such as out-of-home placement and court involvement, vary or are even reversed, depending on the child's age. These findings highlight the need to adopt a differential approach that takes into account the child's age, both in the provision of protective services and in research involving the population receiving such services.

  11. A quantitative approach for integrating multiple lines of evidence for the evaluation of environmental health risks

    PubMed Central

    Schleier III, Jerome J.; Marshall, Lucy A.; Davis, Ryan S.

    2015-01-01

    Decision analysis often considers multiple lines of evidence during the decision making process. Researchers and government agencies have advocated for quantitative weight-of-evidence approaches in which multiple lines of evidence can be considered when estimating risk. Therefore, we utilized Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo to integrate several human-health risk assessment, biomonitoring, and epidemiology studies that have been conducted for two common insecticides (malathion and permethrin) used for adult mosquito management to generate an overall estimate of risk quotient (RQ). The utility of the Bayesian inference for risk management is that the estimated risk represents a probability distribution from which the probability of exceeding a threshold can be estimated. The mean RQs after all studies were incorporated were 0.4386, with a variance of 0.0163 for malathion and 0.3281 with a variance of 0.0083 for permethrin. After taking into account all of the evidence available on the risks of ULV insecticides, the probability that malathion or permethrin would exceed a level of concern was less than 0.0001. Bayesian estimates can substantially improve decisions by allowing decision makers to estimate the probability that a risk will exceed a level of concern by considering seemingly disparate lines of evidence. PMID:25648367

  12. Monitoring schistosomiasis risk in East China over space and time using a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Hu, Yi; Ward, Michael P; Xia, Congcong; Li, Rui; Sun, Liqian; Lynn, Henry; Gao, Fenghua; Wang, Qizhi; Zhang, Shiqing; Xiong, Chenglong; Zhang, Zhijie; Jiang, Qingwu

    2016-01-01

    Schistosomiasis remains a major public health problem and causes substantial economic impact in east China, particularly along the Yangtze River Basin. Disease forecasting and surveillance can assist in the development and implementation of more effective intervention measures to control disease. In this study, we applied a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model to describe trends in schistosomiasis risk in Anhui Province, China, using annual parasitological and environmental data for the period 1997-2010. A computationally efficient approach-Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation-was used for model inference. A zero-inflated, negative binomial model best described the spatio-temporal dynamics of schistosomiasis risk. It predicted that the disease risk would generally be low and stable except for some specific, local areas during the period 2011-2014. High-risk counties were identified in the forecasting maps: three in which the risk remained high, and two in which risk would become high. The results indicated that schistosomiasis risk has been reduced to consistently low levels throughout much of this region of China; however, some counties were identified in which progress in schistosomiasis control was less than satisfactory. Whilst maintaining overall control, specific interventions in the future should focus on these refractive counties as part of a strategy to eliminate schistosomiasis from this region. PMID:27053447

  13. Review of NASA approach to space radiation risk assessments for Mars exploration.

    PubMed

    Cucinotta, Francis A

    2015-02-01

    Long duration space missions present unique radiation protection challenges due to the complexity of the space radiation environment, which includes high charge and energy particles and other highly ionizing radiation such as neutrons. Based on a recommendation by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements, a 3% lifetime risk of exposure-induced death for cancer has been used as a basis for risk limitation by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for low-Earth orbit missions. NASA has developed a risk-based approach to radiation exposure limits that accounts for individual factors (age, gender, and smoking history) and assesses the uncertainties in risk estimates. New radiation quality factors with associated probability distribution functions to represent the quality factor's uncertainty have been developed based on track structure models and recent radiobiology data for high charge and energy particles. The current radiation dose limits are reviewed for spaceflight and the various qualitative and quantitative uncertainties that impact the risk of exposure-induced death estimates using the NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model. NSCR estimates of the number of "safe days" in deep space to be within exposure limits and risk estimates for a Mars exploration mission are described.

  14. An Evidenced-Based Approach for Estimating Decompression Sickness Risk in Aircraft Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robinson, Ronald R.; Dervay, Joseph P.; Conkin, Johnny

    1999-01-01

    Estimating the risk of decompression Sickness (DCS) in aircraft operations remains a challenge, making the reduction of this risk through the development of operationally acceptable denitrogenation schedules difficult. In addition, the medical recommendations which are promulgated are often not supported by rigorous evaluation of the available data, but are instead arrived at by negotiation with the aircraft operations community, are adapted from other similar aircraft operations, or are based upon the opinion of the local medical community. We present a systematic approach for defining DCS risk in aircraft operations by analyzing the data available for a specific aircraft, flight profile, and aviator population. Once the risk of DCS in a particular aircraft operation is known, appropriate steps can be taken to reduce this risk to a level acceptable to the applicable aviation community. Using this technique will allow any aviation medical community to arrive at the best estimate of DCS risk for its specific mission and aviator population and will allow systematic reevaluation of the decisions regarding DCS risk reduction when additional data are available.

  15. Review of NASA approach to space radiation risk assessments for Mars exploration.

    PubMed

    Cucinotta, Francis A

    2015-02-01

    Long duration space missions present unique radiation protection challenges due to the complexity of the space radiation environment, which includes high charge and energy particles and other highly ionizing radiation such as neutrons. Based on a recommendation by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements, a 3% lifetime risk of exposure-induced death for cancer has been used as a basis for risk limitation by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for low-Earth orbit missions. NASA has developed a risk-based approach to radiation exposure limits that accounts for individual factors (age, gender, and smoking history) and assesses the uncertainties in risk estimates. New radiation quality factors with associated probability distribution functions to represent the quality factor's uncertainty have been developed based on track structure models and recent radiobiology data for high charge and energy particles. The current radiation dose limits are reviewed for spaceflight and the various qualitative and quantitative uncertainties that impact the risk of exposure-induced death estimates using the NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model. NSCR estimates of the number of "safe days" in deep space to be within exposure limits and risk estimates for a Mars exploration mission are described. PMID:25551493

  16. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy: report from a workshop ''developing a framework for assessing the risk from allergenic foods".

    PubMed

    Madsen, C B; Hattersley, S; Buck, J; Gendel, S M; Houben, G F; Hourihane, J O'B; Mackie, A; Mills, E N C; Nørhede, P; Taylor, S L; Crevel, R W R

    2009-02-01

    A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods, to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move the area forward. Three possible approaches to safety assessment and risk assessment for allergenic foods were presented and discussed: safety assessment using NOAEL/LOAEL and uncertainty factors, safety assessment using Benchmark Dose and Margin of Exposure (MoE), and risk assessment using probabilistic models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data on minimum eliciting doses and data that can be used to evaluate whether the whole population at risk has been modelled accurately. Specific research topics were identified.

  17. New screening approach for risk assessment of pesticides in ambient air

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yusà, Vicent; Coscollà, Clara; Millet, Maurice

    2014-10-01

    We present a novel screening approach for inhalation risk assessment of currently used pesticides (CUPs) in ambient air, based on the measurements of pesticide levels in the inhalable fraction of the particulate matter (PM10). Total concentrations in ambient air (gas + particle phases) were estimated using a theoretical model of distribution of semi-volatile organic compounds between the gas and the particulate phase based on the octanol-air partition (Koa) of each pesticide. The proposed approach was used in a pilot study conducted in a rural station in Valencia (Spain) from April through to October 2010. Twenty out of 82 analysed pesticides were detected in average concentrations ranging from 1.63 to 117.01 pg m-3. For adults, children and infants the estimated chronic inhalation risk, expressed as Hazard Quotient (HQ) was <1 for all pesticides. Likewise, the cumulative exposure for detected organophosphorus, pyrethroids and carbamates pesticides, was estimated using as metrics the Hazard Index (HI), which was less than 1 for the three families of pesticides assessed. The cancer risk estimated for the detected pesticides classified as Likely or Possible carcinogens was less than 1.15E-7 for infants. In our opinion, the screening approach proposed could be used in the monitoring and risk assessment of pesticides in ambient air.

  18. A consistent approach for the application of pharmacokinetic modeling in cancer and noncancer risk assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Clewell, Harvey J; Andersen, Melvin E; Barton, Hugh A

    2002-01-01

    Physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling provides important capabilities for improving the reliability of the extrapolations across dose, species, and exposure route that are generally required in chemical risk assessment regardless of the toxic end point being considered. Recently, there has been an increasing focus on harmonization of the cancer and noncancer risk assessment approaches used by regulatory agencies. Although the specific details of applying pharmacokinetic modeling within these two paradigms may differ, it is possible to identify important elements common to both. These elements expand on a four-part framework for describing the development of toxicity: a) exposure, b) tissue dosimetry/pharmacokinetics, c) toxicity process/pharmacodynamics, and d) response. The middle two components constitute the mode of action. In particular, the approach described in this paper provides a common template for incorporating pharmacokinetic modeling to estimate tissue dosimetry into chemical risk assessment, whether for cancer or noncancer end points. Chemical risk assessments typically depend upon comparisons across species that often simplify to ratios reflecting the differences. In this paper we describe the uses of this ratio concept and discuss the advantages of a pharmacokinetic-based approach as compared to the use of default dosimetry. PMID:11781169

  19. Risk assessment of groundwater contamination: a multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation approach based on DRASTIC model.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Qiuwen; Yang, Xiaohong; Zhang, Yan; Zhong, Ming

    2013-01-01

    Groundwater contamination is a serious threat to water supply. Risk assessment of groundwater contamination is an effective way to protect the safety of groundwater resource. Groundwater is a complex and fuzzy system with many uncertainties, which is impacted by different geological and hydrological factors. In order to deal with the uncertainty in the risk assessment of groundwater contamination, we propose an approach with analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation integrated together. Firstly, the risk factors of groundwater contamination are identified by the sources-pathway-receptor-consequence method, and a corresponding index system of risk assessment based on DRASTIC model is established. Due to the complexity in the process of transitions between the possible pollution risks and the uncertainties of factors, the method of analysis hierarchy process is applied to determine the weights of each factor, and the fuzzy sets theory is adopted to calculate the membership degrees of each factor. Finally, a case study is presented to illustrate and test this methodology. It is concluded that the proposed approach integrates the advantages of both analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, which provides a more flexible and reliable way to deal with the linguistic uncertainty and mechanism uncertainty in groundwater contamination without losing important information.

  20. Risk Assessment of Groundwater Contamination: A Multilevel Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Approach Based on DRASTIC Model

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yan; Zhong, Ming

    2013-01-01

    Groundwater contamination is a serious threat to water supply. Risk assessment of groundwater contamination is an effective way to protect the safety of groundwater resource. Groundwater is a complex and fuzzy system with many uncertainties, which is impacted by different geological and hydrological factors. In order to deal with the uncertainty in the risk assessment of groundwater contamination, we propose an approach with analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation integrated together. Firstly, the risk factors of groundwater contamination are identified by the sources-pathway-receptor-consequence method, and a corresponding index system of risk assessment based on DRASTIC model is established. Due to the complexity in the process of transitions between the possible pollution risks and the uncertainties of factors, the method of analysis hierarchy process is applied to determine the weights of each factor, and the fuzzy sets theory is adopted to calculate the membership degrees of each factor. Finally, a case study is presented to illustrate and test this methodology. It is concluded that the proposed approach integrates the advantages of both analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, which provides a more flexible and reliable way to deal with the linguistic uncertainty and mechanism uncertainty in groundwater contamination without losing important information. PMID:24453883

  1. A strategic analysis study-based approach to integrated risk assessment: Occupational health risks from environmental restoration and waste management activities at Hanford

    SciTech Connect

    Mahaffey, J.A.; Doctor, P.G.; Buschbom, R.L.; Glantz, C.S.; Daling, P.M.; Sever, L.E.; Vargo, G.J. Jr.; Strachan, D.M.; Pajunen, A.L.; Hoyt, R.C.; Ludowise, J.D.

    1993-06-01

    The goal of environmental restoration and waste management activities is to reduce public health risks or to delay risks to the future when new technology will be available for improved cleanup solutions. Actions to remediate the wastes on the Hanford Site will entail risks to workers, the public, and the environment that do not currently exist. In some circumstances, remediation activities will create new exposure pathways that are not present without cleanup activities. In addition, cleanup actions will redistribute existing health risks over time and space, and will likely shift health risks to cleanup workers in the short term. This report describes an approach to occupational risk assessment based on the Hanford Strategic Analysis Study and illustrates the approach by comparing worker risks for two options for remediation of N/K fuels, a subcategory of unprocessed irradiated fuels at Hanford.

  2. Evaluation of HDL-modulating interventions for cardiovascular risk reduction using a systems pharmacology approach[S

    PubMed Central

    Gadkar, Kapil; Lu, James; Sahasranaman, Srikumar; Davis, John; Mazer, Norman A.; Ramanujan, Saroja

    2016-01-01

    The recent failures of cholesteryl ester transport protein inhibitor drugs to decrease CVD risk, despite raising HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) levels, suggest that pharmacologic increases in HDL-C may not always reflect elevations in reverse cholesterol transport (RCT), the process by which HDL is believed to exert its beneficial effects. HDL-modulating therapies can affect HDL properties beyond total HDL-C, including particle numbers, size, and composition, and may contribute differently to RCT and CVD risk. The lack of validated easily measurable pharmacodynamic markers to link drug effects to RCT, and ultimately to CVD risk, complicates target and compound selection and evaluation. In this work, we use a systems pharmacology model to contextualize the roles of different HDL targets in cholesterol metabolism and provide quantitative links between HDL-related measurements and the associated changes in RCT rate to support target and compound evaluation in drug development. By quantifying the amount of cholesterol removed from the periphery over the short-term, our simulations show the potential for infused HDL to treat acute CVD. For the primary prevention of CVD, our analysis suggests that the induction of ApoA-I synthesis may be a more viable approach, due to the long-term increase in RCT rate. PMID:26522778

  3. A risk management approach to double-shell tank waste volume versus storage capacity

    SciTech Connect

    Coles, G.A.; Thurkow, T.J.; Fritz, R.L.; Nuhlestein, L.O.; Allen, M.R.; Stuart, R.J.

    1996-01-01

    A risk-based assessment of the overall waste volume versus double-shell tank storage capacity was conducted to develop fallback positions for projections where the waste volume was at a high risk of exceeding capacity. This study was initiated to provide that assessment. A working simulation model was the primary deliverable of this study. The model validates the approach and demonstrates that simulation analysis can provide a method of tracking uncertainties in available data, assessing probabilities, and serves as a tool to be used by management to determine the consequences of various off-normal occurrences.

  4. Comparative risk assessment of carcinogens in alcoholic beverages using the margin of exposure approach.

    PubMed

    Lachenmeier, Dirk W; Przybylski, Maria C; Rehm, Jürgen

    2012-09-15

    Alcoholic beverages have been classified as carcinogenic to humans. As alcoholic beverages are multicomponent mixtures containing several carcinogenic compounds, a quantitative approach is necessary to compare the risks. Fifteen known and suspected human carcinogens (acetaldehyde, acrylamide, aflatoxins, arsenic, benzene, cadmium, ethanol, ethyl carbamate, formaldehyde, furan, lead, 4-methylimidazole, N-nitrosodimethylamine, ochratoxin A and safrole) occurring in alcoholic beverages were identified based on monograph reviews by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The margin of exposure (MOE) approach was used for comparative risk assessment. MOE compares a toxicological threshold with the exposure. MOEs above 10,000 are judged as low priority for risk management action. MOEs were calculated for different drinking scenarios (low risk and heavy drinking) and different levels of contamination for four beverage groups (beer, wine, spirits and unrecorded alcohol). The lowest MOEs were found for ethanol (3.1 for low risk and 0.8 for heavy drinking). Inorganic lead and arsenic have average MOEs between 10 and 300, followed by acetaldehyde, cadmium and ethyl carbamate between 1,000 and 10,000. All other compounds had average MOEs above 10,000 independent of beverage type. Ethanol was identified as the most important carcinogen in alcoholic beverages, with clear dose response. Some other compounds (lead, arsenic, ethyl carbamate, acetaldehyde) may pose risks below thresholds normally tolerated for food contaminants, but from a cost-effectiveness point of view, the focus should be on reducing alcohol consumption in general rather than on mitigative measures for some contaminants that contribute only to a limited extent (if at all) to the total health risk.

  5. Integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haer, Toon; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    Between 1998 and 2009, Europe suffered over 213 major damaging floods, causing 1126 deaths, displacing around half a million people. In this period, floods caused at least 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard faced in Europe. In many low-lying areas, the main strategy to cope with floods is to reduce the risk of the hazard through flood defence structures, like dikes and levees. However, it is suggested that part of the responsibility for flood protection needs to shift to households and businesses in areas at risk, and that governments and insurers can effectively stimulate the implementation of individual protective measures. However, adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction and the interaction between the government, insurers, and individuals has hardly been studied in large-scale flood risk assessments. In this study, an European Agent-Based Model is developed including agent representatives for the administrative stakeholders of European Member states, insurers and reinsurers markets, and individuals following complex behaviour models. The Agent-Based Modelling approach allows for an in-depth analysis of the interaction between heterogeneous autonomous agents and the resulting (non-)adaptive behaviour. Existing flood damage models are part of the European Agent-Based Model to allow for a dynamic response of both the agents and the environment to changing flood risk and protective efforts. By following an Agent-Based Modelling approach this study is a first contribution to overcome the limitations of traditional large-scale flood risk models in which the influence of individual adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction is often lacking.

  6. Preventable risk factors for noncommunicable diseases in rural Indonesia: prevalence study using WHO STEPS approach.

    PubMed Central

    Ng, Nawi; Stenlund, Hans; Bonita, Ruth; Hakimi, Mohammad; Wall, Stig; Weinehall, Lars

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To gain a better understanding of the health transition in Indonesia, we sought to describe the prevalence and distribution of risk factors for noncommunicable diseases and to identify the risk-factor burden among a rural population and an urban population. METHODS: Using the protocol of the WHO STEPwise approach to Surveillance (STEPS), risk factors for noncommunicable diseases were determined for 1502 men and 1461 women aged 15-74 years at the Purworejo Demographic Surveillance Site in 2001. FINDINGS: Smoking prevalence was high among men (913/1539; weighted percentage=53.9.%) in both rural and urban populations; it was almost non-existent among women. A higher proportion of the urban population and the richest quintile of the rural population had high blood pressure and were classified as being overweight or obese when compared with the poorest quintile of the rural population. Those classified as being in the richest quintile who lived in the rural area were 1.5 times more likely to have raised blood pressure and 8 times more likely to be overweight than those classified as being in the poorest quintile and living in the rural area. Clustering of risk factors was higher among those classified as being in the richest quintile of those living in the rural area compared with those classified as being in the poorest quintile; and the risks of clustering were just 20-30% lower compared with the urban population. CONCLUSION: Both the rural and urban populations in Purworejo face an unequally distributed burden of risk factors for noncommunicable diseases. The burden among the most well-off group in the rural area has already reached a level similar to that found in the urban area. The implementation of the WHO STEPS approach was feasible, and it provides a comprehensive picture of the burden of risk factors, allowing appropriate health interventions to be implemented to address health inequities. PMID:16628304

  7. Cardiovascular risk prediction: a comparative study of Framingham and quantum neural network based approach

    PubMed Central

    Narain, Renu; Saxena, Sanjai; Goyal, Achal Kumar

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Currently cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the main cause of death worldwide. Disease risk estimates can be used as prognostic information and support for treating CVDs. The commonly used Framingham risk score (FRS) for CVD prediction is outdated for the modern population, so FRS may not be accurate enough. In this paper, a novel CVD prediction system based on machine learning is proposed. Methods This study has been conducted with the data of 689 patients showing symptoms of CVD. Furthermore, the dataset of 5,209 CVD patients of the famous Framingham study has been used for validation purposes. Each patient’s parameters have been analyzed by physicians in order to make a diagnosis. The proposed system uses the quantum neural network for machine learning. This system learns and recognizes the pattern of CVD. The proposed system has been experimentally evaluated and compared with FRS. Results During testing, patients’ data in combination with the doctors’ diagnosis (predictions) are used for evaluation and validation. The proposed system achieved 98.57% accuracy in predicting the CVD risk. The CVD risk predictions by the proposed system, using the dataset of the Framingham study, confirmed the potential risk of death, deaths which actually occurred and had been recorded as due to myocardial infarction and coronary heart disease in the dataset of the Framingham study. The accuracy of the proposed system is significantly higher than FRS and other existing approaches. Conclusion The proposed system will serve as an excellent tool for a medical practitioner in predicting the risk of CVD. This system will be serving as an aid to medical practitioners for planning better medication and treatment strategies. An early diagnosis may be effectively made by using this system. An overall accuracy of 98.57% has been achieved in predicting the risk level. The accuracy is considerably higher compared to the other existing approaches. Thus, this system must be used

  8. A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The assessment of climate change related risks is notoriously difficult due to the complex and uncertain combinations of hazardous events that might happen, the multiplicity of physical processes involved, the continuous changes and interactions of environmental and socio-economic systems. One important challenge lies in predicting and modelling cascades of natural and man -made hazard events which can be triggered by climate change, encompassing different spatial and temporal scales. Another regard the potentially difficult integration of environmental, social and economic disciplines in the multi-risk concept. Finally, the effective interaction between scientists and stakeholders is essential to ensure that multi-risk knowledge is translated into efficient adaptation and management strategies. The assessment is even more complex at the scale of deltaic systems which are particularly vulnerable to global environmental changes, due to the fragile equilibrium between the presence of valuable natural ecosystems and relevant economic activities. Improving our capacity to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surges, reduction in sediment load, local subsidence, saltwater intrusion) is therefore essential to identify timely opportunities for adaptation. A holistic multi-risk approach is here proposed to integrate terminology, metrics and methodologies from different research fields (i.e. environmental, social and economic sciences) thus creating shared knowledge areas to advance multi risk assessment and management in delta regions. A first testing of the approach, including the application of Bayesian network analysis for the assessment of impacts of climate change on key natural systems (e.g. wetlands, protected areas, beaches) and socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture, tourism), is applied in the Po river delta in Northern Italy. The approach is based on a bottom-up process involving local stakeholders early in different

  9. Euclidean and Noetherian entropies in AdS space

    SciTech Connect

    Dutta, Suvankar; Gopakumar, Rajesh

    2006-08-15

    We examine the Euclidean action approach, as well as that of Wald, to the entropy of black holes in asymptotically AdS spaces. From the point of view of holography these two approaches are somewhat complementary in spirit and it is not obvious why they should give the same answer in the presence of arbitrary higher derivative gravity corrections. For the case of the AdS{sub 5} Schwarzschild black hole, we explicitly study the leading correction to the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy in the presence of a variety of higher derivative corrections studied in the literature, including the Type IIB R{sup 4} term. We find a nontrivial agreement between the two approaches in every case. Finally, we give a general way of understanding the equivalence of these two approaches.

  10. NASA's New Approach for Evaluating Risk Reduction Due to Space Shuttle Upgrades

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Safie, Fayssal M.; Belyeu, Rebecca L.

    2000-01-01

    As part of NASA's intensive effort to incorporate quantitative risk assessment (QRA) tools in the Agency's decision-making process concerning Space Shuttle risk, NASA has developed a powerful risk assessment tool called the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS). The QRAS is a tool designed to estimate Space Shuttle risk and evaluate Space Shuttle upgrades. This paper presents an overview of the QRAS with focus on its application for evaluating the risk reduction due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. The application includes a case study from the Space Shuttle main engine (SSME). The QRAS overview section of the paper includes the QRAS development process, the technical approach to model development, the QRA quantification methods and techniques, and observations concerning the complex modeling involved in QRAS. The application section of the paper describes a practical case study using QRAS models for evaluating critical Space Shuttle Program upgrades, specifically a proposed SSME nozzle upgrade. This paper presents the method for evaluating the proposed upgrade by comparing the current nozzle (old design with well-established probabilistic models) to the channel wall nozzle (new design at the preliminary design level).

  11. Reducing Design Risk Using Robust Design Methods: A Dual Response Surface Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Unal, Resit; Yeniay, Ozgur; Lepsch, Roger A. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    Space transportation system conceptual design is a multidisciplinary process containing considerable element of risk. Risk here is defined as the variability in the estimated (output) performance characteristic of interest resulting from the uncertainties in the values of several disciplinary design and/or operational parameters. Uncertainties from one discipline (and/or subsystem) may propagate to another, through linking parameters and the final system output may have a significant accumulation of risk. This variability can result in significant deviations from the expected performance. Therefore, an estimate of variability (which is called design risk in this study) together with the expected performance characteristic value (e.g. mean empty weight) is necessary for multidisciplinary optimization for a robust design. Robust design in this study is defined as a solution that minimizes variability subject to a constraint on mean performance characteristics. Even though multidisciplinary design optimization has gained wide attention and applications, the treatment of uncertainties to quantify and analyze design risk has received little attention. This research effort explores the dual response surface approach to quantify variability (risk) in critical performance characteristics (such as weight) during conceptual design.

  12. Human health and performance risk management—an approach for exploration missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, Jeffrey R.; Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Richard, Elizabeth E.

    During long duration exploration missions, maintaining human health and performance will be essential to enabling success. Therefore, NASA has developed standards through the Health and Medical Technical Authority to insure human health and performance during exploration. Human health standards are the first step in defining acceptable risk for human space flight and take into consideration both short-term (mission) and long-term (lifetime) health risk. These standards are based on the best medical evidence from terrestrial standards; analog spaceflight environments; and spaceflight experience. Standards drive the development of focused program requirements to mitigate risks associated with specific missions. Program requirements include vehicle design as well as health care systems including medical, environmental and countermeasures. NASA has also developed the risk mitigation analysis tool (RMAT), a process to evaluate the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. The RMAT facilitates documentation and analysis of the effectiveness of mitigation strategies, enables NASA to baseline a risk mitigation approach based on the best evidence, and provides the traceability from research and technology development projects to specific mission deliverables.

  13. Testing a structured decision approach: value-focused thinking for deliberative risk communication.

    PubMed

    Arvai, J L; Gregory, R; McDaniels, T L

    2001-12-01

    Public participation is now part of many decision making processes for managing environmental and technical risks. This article describes a test of a strategy to improve the quality of public input by combining themes from risk communication with the prescriptive decision process of value-focused thinking. It was hypothesized that participating in a structured, value-focused risk communication approach would lead people to make more thoughtful, better informed, and hence higher quality decisions by helping them to consider and discuss a wider array of decision-relevant issues and address key value trade-offs. It is also anticipated that utilizing a value-focused decision structure would make participants feel more comfortable with their decisions; more satisfied that their selected alternative reflected their key concerns; and, in the end, more satisfied with their decisions. To test these hypotheses, six groups comprised of 7 to 10 people participated in conventional "alternative-focused" risk communication workshops and eight groups participated in similar "value-focused" workshops. All workshops dealt with the management of risks to riverine salmon habitat from hydroelectric electricity generation. The results provided support for the hypotheses: the value-focused decision structure led to more thoughtful and better informed risk management decisions.

  14. Age-Infusion Approach to Derive Injury Risk Curves for Dummies from Human Cadaver Tests

    PubMed Central

    Yoganandan, Narayan; Banerjee, Anjishnu; Pintar, Frank A.

    2015-01-01

    Injury criteria and risk curves are needed for anthropomorphic test devices (dummies) to assess injuries for improving human safety. The present state of knowledge is based on using injury outcomes and biomechanical metrics from post-mortem human subject (PMHS) and mechanical records from dummy tests. Data from these models are combined to develop dummy injury assessment risk curves (IARCs)/dummy injury assessment risk values (IARVs). This simple substitution approach involves duplicating dummy metrics for PMHS tested under similar conditions and pairing with PMHS injury outcomes. It does not directly account for the age of each specimen tested in the PMHS group. Current substitution methods for injury risk assessments use age as a covariate and dummy metrics (e.g., accelerations) are not modified so that age can be directly included in the model. The age-infusion methodology presented in this perspective article accommodates for an annual rate factor that modifies the dummy injury risk assessment responses to account for the age of the PMHS that the injury data were based on. The annual rate factor is determined using human injury risk curves. The dummy metrics are modulated based on individual PMHS age and rate factor, thus “infusing” age into the dummy data. Using PMHS injuries and accelerations from side-impact experiments, matched-pair dummy tests, and logistic regression techniques, the methodology demonstrates the process of age-infusion to derive the IARCs and IARVs. PMID:26697422

  15. Testing a structured decision approach: value-focused thinking for deliberative risk communication.

    PubMed

    Arvai, J L; Gregory, R; McDaniels, T L

    2001-12-01

    Public participation is now part of many decision making processes for managing environmental and technical risks. This article describes a test of a strategy to improve the quality of public input by combining themes from risk communication with the prescriptive decision process of value-focused thinking. It was hypothesized that participating in a structured, value-focused risk communication approach would lead people to make more thoughtful, better informed, and hence higher quality decisions by helping them to consider and discuss a wider array of decision-relevant issues and address key value trade-offs. It is also anticipated that utilizing a value-focused decision structure would make participants feel more comfortable with their decisions; more satisfied that their selected alternative reflected their key concerns; and, in the end, more satisfied with their decisions. To test these hypotheses, six groups comprised of 7 to 10 people participated in conventional "alternative-focused" risk communication workshops and eight groups participated in similar "value-focused" workshops. All workshops dealt with the management of risks to riverine salmon habitat from hydroelectric electricity generation. The results provided support for the hypotheses: the value-focused decision structure led to more thoughtful and better informed risk management decisions. PMID:11824682

  16. Segmented strings in AdS 3

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Callebaut, Nele; Gubser, Steven S.; Samberg, Andreas; Toldo, Chiara

    2015-11-01

    We study segmented strings in flat space and in AdS 3. In flat space, these well known classical motions describe strings which at any instant of time are piecewise linear. In AdS 3, the worldsheet is composed of faces each of which is a region bounded by null geodesics in an AdS 2 subspace of AdS 3. The time evolution can be described by specifying the null geodesic motion of kinks in the string at which two segments are joined. The outcome of collisions of kinks on the worldsheet can be worked out essentially using considerations of causality. We study several examples of closed segmented strings in AdS 3 and find an unexpected quasi-periodic behavior. We also work out a WKB analysis of quantum states of yo-yo strings in AdS 5 and find a logarithmic term reminiscent of the logarithmic twist of string states on the leading Regge trajectory.

  17. Polarised black holes in AdS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Costa, Miguel S.; Greenspan, Lauren; Oliveira, Miguel; Penedones, João; Santos, Jorge E.

    2016-06-01

    We consider solutions in Einstein-Maxwell theory with a negative cosmological constant that asymptote to global AdS 4 with conformal boundary {S}2× {{{R}}}t. At the sphere at infinity we turn on a space-dependent electrostatic potential, which does not destroy the asymptotic AdS behaviour. For simplicity we focus on the case of a dipolar electrostatic potential. We find two new geometries: (i) an AdS soliton that includes the full backreaction of the electric field on the AdS geometry; (ii) a polarised neutral black hole that is deformed by the electric field, accumulating opposite charges in each hemisphere. For both geometries we study boundary data such as the charge density and the stress tensor. For the black hole we also study the horizon charge density and area, and further verify a Smarr formula. Then we consider this system at finite temperature and compute the Gibbs free energy for both AdS soliton and black hole phases. The corresponding phase diagram generalizes the Hawking-Page phase transition. The AdS soliton dominates the low temperature phase and the black hole the high temperature phase, with a critical temperature that decreases as the external electric field increases. Finally, we consider the simple case of a free charged scalar field on {S}2× {{{R}}}t with conformal coupling. For a field in the SU(N ) adjoint representation we compare the phase diagram with the above gravitational system.

  18. 78 FR 48173 - Guidance for Industry on Oversight of Clinical Investigations-A Risk-Based Approach to Monitoring...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-08-07

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND... Investigations--A Risk-Based Approach to Monitoring; Availability AGENCY: Food and Drug Administration, HHS... guidance for industry entitled ``Oversight of Clinical Investigations--A Risk-Based Approach to...

  19. Approaches to risk-adjusting outcome measures applied to criminal justice involvement after community service.

    PubMed

    Banks, S M; Pandiani, J A; Bramley, J

    2001-08-01

    The ethic of fairness in program evaluation requires that measures of behavioral health agency performance be sensitive to differences in those agencies' caseload composition. The authors describe two traditional approaches to the statistical risk adjustment of outcome measures (stratification weighting and pre-post measurement) that are designed to account for differences in caseload composition and introduce a method that incorporates the strengths of both approaches. Procedures for deriving each of these measures are described in detail and demonstrated in the evaluation of a statewide system of community-based behavioral health care programs. This evaluation examines the degree to which service recipients get into trouble with the law after treatment. Three measures are recommended for inclusion in outcome-oriented "report cards," and the interpretation of each measure is discussed. Finally, the authors suggest formats for graphic and tabular presentation of the risk-adjusted evaluation for sharing findings with diverse stakeholder groups. PMID:11497020

  20. Environmental transport and human exposure: A multimedia approach in health-risk policy

    SciTech Connect

    McKone, T.E.

    1992-05-01

    In his treatise Air, Water, and Places, the ancient-Greek physician Hippocrates demonstrated that the appearance of disease in human populations is influenced by the quality of air, water, and food; the topography of the land; and general living habits. This approach is still relevant and, indeed, the conerstone of modem efforts to relate public health to environmental factors. What has changed is the precision with which we can measure and model these long-held relationships. Environmental scientists recognize that plants, animals, and humans encounter environmental contaminants via complex transfers through air, water, and food and use multimedia models to evaluate these transfers. In this report, I explore the use of multimedia models both to examine pollution trends and as a basis for characterizing human health risks and ecological risks. The strengths and weaknesses of the approach are discussed.

  1. Adversarial risk analysis with incomplete information: a level-k approach.

    PubMed

    Rothschild, Casey; McLay, Laura; Guikema, Seth

    2012-07-01

    This article proposes, develops, and illustrates the application of level-k game theory to adversarial risk analysis. Level-k reasoning, which assumes that players play strategically but have bounded rationality, is useful for operationalizing a Bayesian approach to adversarial risk analysis. It can be applied in a broad class of settings, including settings with asynchronous play and partial but incomplete revelation of early moves. Its computational and elicitation requirements are modest. We illustrate the approach with an application to a simple defend-attack model in which the defender's countermeasures are revealed with a probability less than one to the attacker before he decides on how or whether to attack. PMID:22035126

  2. Approach to dyslipidemia, lipodystrophy, and cardiovascular risk in patients with HIV infection.

    PubMed

    Troll, J Gregory

    2011-02-01

    There is a significant prevalence (20%-80% depending on the population and the study) of lipid disorders and other cardiovascular risk factors in people living with HIV infection. This review focuses on HIV and HIV treatment-associated metabolic and cardiovascular concerns, including dyslipidemias, lipodystrophy syndromes, endothelial dysfunctions, and associated metabolic events such as insulin resistance. Emerging hypotheses of the underlying pathophysiology of these issues, with impact on selection of specific antiretroviral treatment (ART) strategies, therapy, and preventive approaches to decreasing cardiovascular risk and other problems associated with these syndromes are discussed. Screening for cardiovascular risk as part of the decision of starting antiretroviral therapy, and during care of patients with HIV regardless of ART therapy status, is suggested with particular areas of focus. Statins, other hyperlipidemic therapies, treatment for specific problems arising due to lipodystrophy, and implications on ART selection to avoid drug interactions and adverse effects are also discussed.

  3. Assessing risk by impacts: a probabilistic approach for drought assessment in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blauhut, Veit; Stahl, Kerstin; Vogt, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    The risk of natural disasters in a very general sense is a combination of hazard and vulnerability. For drought, the hazard is commonly derived from the statistical analysis of one or a set of drought indicators. Their selection mostly depends on the focus of the study, with the usage of standardized indices experiencing growing popularity. Vulnerability to drought is typically estimated by a subjectively weighted combination of relevant factors describing different aspects of vulnerability, such as exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. This epistemic approach requires explicit information on physical, ecological, institutional and socioeconomic parameters. Even though impacts are known as symptoms of vulnerability and risk is often defined as the likelihood of impact occurrence (e.g. by the IPCC 2012 SREX report), information on past impacts is only poorly integrated in current drought risk assessment. Only few approaches have verified their vulnerability index with past impact information. We present a probabilistic approach to estimate drought risk based on the assumption that a system is vulnerable if it was impacted during a certain hazard. Thatfore, information on past drought impacts from the European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII) can function as a proxy for vulnerability to drought. Multivariable logistic regression is then applied to find non-subjective combinations of drought indices and vulnerability factors to predict the likelihood of drought impact occurrence. The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) of the European Drought Observatory, SPI and SPEI (1-36) are considered as drought indices; vulnerability factors are gathered from quantitative and qualitative data of statistical databases (e.g. Eurostat, Aquastat). Thus, sector- specific drought risk maps for selected hazard levels were developed for Europe. This work reconsiders the practice of current research philosophies and highlights the importance to detect vulnerability by its

  4. Adding insult to injury: childhood and adolescent risk factors for psychosis predict lower fractional anisotropy in the superior longitudinal fasciculus in healthy adults.

    PubMed

    DeRosse, Pamela; Ikuta, Toshikazu; Peters, Bart D; Karlsgodt, Katherine H; Szeszko, Philip R; Malhotra, Anil K

    2014-12-30

    Although epidemiological studies provide strong support for demographic and environmental risk factors in psychotic disorders, few data examine how these risk factors relate to the putative aberrant neurodevelopment associated with illness. The present study examined how the accumulation of risk factors including low IQ, low parental socioeconomic status (SES), history of adolescent cannabis use and childhood trauma, and high levels of subclinical psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) contributed to aberrant neurodevelopmental outcomes in 112 otherwise healthy adults recruited from the community. Participants were studied with diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), and voxel-wise statistical analysis of fractional anisotropy (FA) using tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS) was used to examine the relation between cumulative risk (CR) for psychosis and white matter (WM) integrity across the whole brain. Analyses revealed that higher CR was significantly associated with lower FA in a cluster in the left superior longitudinal fasciculus (SLF). These results suggest that risk factors previously associated with psychotic disorders are associated with WM integrity even in otherwise healthy adults and may provide insight into how previously identified risk factors contribute to the structural brain abnormalities associated with psychotic illness. Prospective longitudinal studies examining the effect of risk factors on the developmental trajectory of brain WM are warranted. PMID:25277095

  5. Adding insult to injury: childhood and adolescent risk factors for psychosis predict lower fractional anisotropy in the superior longitudinal fasciculus in healthy adults.

    PubMed

    DeRosse, Pamela; Ikuta, Toshikazu; Peters, Bart D; Karlsgodt, Katherine H; Szeszko, Philip R; Malhotra, Anil K

    2014-12-30

    Although epidemiological studies provide strong support for demographic and environmental risk factors in psychotic disorders, few data examine how these risk factors relate to the putative aberrant neurodevelopment associated with illness. The present study examined how the accumulation of risk factors including low IQ, low parental socioeconomic status (SES), history of adolescent cannabis use and childhood trauma, and high levels of subclinical psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) contributed to aberrant neurodevelopmental outcomes in 112 otherwise healthy adults recruited from the community. Participants were studied with diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), and voxel-wise statistical analysis of fractional anisotropy (FA) using tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS) was used to examine the relation between cumulative risk (CR) for psychosis and white matter (WM) integrity across the whole brain. Analyses revealed that higher CR was significantly associated with lower FA in a cluster in the left superior longitudinal fasciculus (SLF). These results suggest that risk factors previously associated with psychotic disorders are associated with WM integrity even in otherwise healthy adults and may provide insight into how previously identified risk factors contribute to the structural brain abnormalities associated with psychotic illness. Prospective longitudinal studies examining the effect of risk factors on the developmental trajectory of brain WM are warranted.

  6. Conserved higher-spin charges in AdS4

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gelfond, O. A.; Vasiliev, M. A.

    2016-03-01

    Gauge invariant conserved conformal currents built from massless fields of all spins in 4d Minkowski space-time and AdS4 are described in the unfolded dynamics approach. The current cohomology associated with non-zero conserved charges is found. The resulting list of charges is shown to match the space of parameters of the conformal higher-spin symmetry algebra in four dimensions.

  7. Risk factor investigation for cardiovascular health through WHO STEPS approach in Ardabil, Iran

    PubMed Central

    Sadeghi-Bazargani, H; Jafarzadeh, H; Fallah, M; Hekmat, S; Bashiri, J; Hosseingolizadeh, GH; Soltanmohammadzadeh, MS; Mortezazadeh, A; Shaker, A; Danehzan, M; Zohouri, A; Khosravi, O; Nasimidoust, R; Malekpour, N; Kharazmi, E; Babaei, M; Nadirmohammadi, M; Mashhadi-Abdollahi, H

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: Reliable evidence is the keystone for any noncommunicable disease (NCD) prevention plan to be initiated. In this study we carried out a risk factor investigation based on the WHO Stepwise approach to Surveillance (STEPS). Methods: The study was conducted on 1000 adults between 15 and 64 years of age living in Ardabil province, north-west Iran during 2006, based on the WHO STEPS approach to surveillance of risk factors for NCD. At this stage only the first and second steps were carried out. Data were collected through standard questionnaires and methods analyzed using STATA version 8 statistical software package. Results: 29.0% of men and 2.6% of women were current daily tobacco smokers. The mean number of manufactured cigarettes smoked per day was 18.9 among current daily smokers. Smoking was most prevalent among men of low-income families and those of lower education. The mean body mass index (BMI) was 26.6 kg/m2, and was significantly correlated with systolic blood pressure. 58.9% were overweight or obese; 18.0% had raised blood pressure and 3.7% had isolated systolic hypertension. The mean number of servings of fruit consumed per day was 1.1; 33.1% had low levels of activity. Combined risk factor analysis showed that 4.1% of participants were in the low-risk group (up to 5.1% among men and 3.2% among women). Those in the high-risk group comprised 25.6% in the 25- to 44-year age group and 49.7% in the 45- to 64-year age group. Mean BMI increased by age in both sexes at least at the first three decades of adult life. Conclusion: Based on observed status of risk for cardiovascular health, burden of cardiovascular diseases is expected to increase if an effective prevention strategy is not undertaken. PMID:21796256

  8. Integrated approach of environmental impact and risk assessment of Rosia Montana Mining Area, Romania.

    PubMed

    Stefănescu, Lucrina; Robu, Brînduşa Mihaela; Ozunu, Alexandru

    2013-11-01

    The environmental impact assessment of mining sites represents nowadays a large interest topic in Romania. Historical pollution in the Rosia Montana mining area of Romania caused extensive damage to environmental media. This paper has two goals: to investigate the environmental pollution induced by mining activities in the Rosia Montana area and to quantify the environmental impacts and associated risks by means of an integrated approach. Thus, a new method was developed and applied for quantifying the impact of mining activities, taking account of the quality of environmental media in the mining area, and used as case study in the present paper. The associated risks are a function of the environmental impacts and the probability of their occurrence. The results show that the environmental impacts and quantified risks, based on quality indicators to characterize the environmental quality, are of a higher order, and thus measures for pollution remediation and control need to be considered in the investigated area. The conclusion drawn is that an integrated approach for the assessment of environmental impact and associated risks is a valuable and more objective method, and is an important tool that can be applied in the decision-making process for national authorities in the prioritization of emergency action.

  9. Risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. Current approaches and future strategies.

    PubMed

    Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Larsen, John Christian; Meyer, Otto

    2010-03-01

    The risk assessment of pesticide residues in food is based on toxicological evaluation of the single compounds and no internationally accepted procedure exists for evaluation of cumulative exposure to multiple residues of pesticides in crops, except for a few groups of pesticides sharing a group ADI. However, several attempts have been suggested during the last decade. This paper gives an overview of the various approaches. It is of paramount importance to consider whether there will be either no interaction or interaction between the compounds in the mixture. When there are no interactions several approaches are available for the risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. However, no single simple approach is available to judge upon potential interactions at the low doses that humans are exposed to from pesticide residues in food. In these cases, PBTK models could be useful as tools to assess combined tissue doses and to help predict potential interactions including thresholds for such effects. This would improve the quality of the risk assessment.

  10. A risk-based screening approach for prioritizing contaminants and exposure pathways at Superfund sites.

    PubMed

    Hoffman, F O; Blaylock, B G; Frank, M L; Thiessen, K M

    1993-12-01

    Contamination at Superfund sites can involve mixtures of chemicals and radionuclides in a variety of environmental media. Determining priorities for evaluation and remediation of various contaminants is an important part of the initial phases of any site investigation. An effective screening analysis at the beginning of the project can help by identifying both those situations in need of immediate remedial attention and those which require further sampling and evaluation. The screening approach discussed here is made up of two sets of calculations designed to provide upper- and lower-bound estimates of health risk to individuals likely to receive the highest exposures. This approach allows rapid identification of contaminants which pose a negligible risk and can be assigned a low priority for remedial attention or which pose a substantial risk and should be given the highest priority for appropriate remediation efforts. Contaminants designated as neither high- nor low-priority should be investigated in more detail prior to making decisions regarding the need for or method of remediation. The utility of this approach has already been demonstrated in the evaluation of contamination in the Clinch and Tennessee River systems originating from historical operations of atomic weapons and energy research facilities near Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

  11. D-branes on AdS flux compactifications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koerber, Paul; Martucci, Luca

    2008-01-01

    We study D-branes in Script N = 1 flux compactifications to AdS4. We derive their supersymmetry conditions and express them in terms of background generalized calibrations. Basically because AdS has a boundary, the analysis of stability is more subtle and qualitatively different from the usual case of Minkowski compactifications. For instance, stable D-branes filling AdS4 may wrap trivial internal cycles. Our analysis gives a geometric realization of the four-dimensional field theory approach of Freedman and collaborators. Furthermore, the one-to-one correspondence between the supersymmetry conditions of the background and the existence of generalized calibrations for D-branes is clarified and extended to any supersymmetric flux background that admits a time-like Killing vector and for which all fields are time-independent with respect to the associated time. As explicit examples, we discuss supersymmetric D-branes on IIA nearly Kähler AdS4 flux compactifications.

  12. Intent, Capability and Opportunity: A Holistic Approach to Addressing Proliferation as a Risk Management Issue

    SciTech Connect

    Amanda Rynes; Trond Bjornard

    2011-07-01

    Currently, proliferation risk assessment models are designed to evaluate only a portion of the overall risk, focusing exclusively on either technological or social factors to determine the extent of a threat. Many of these models are intended to act as a means of predicting proliferation potential rather than assessing the system as a whole, ignoring the ability to enhance mitigating factors and manage, rather just establish the presence of, the threat. While the information garnered through these forms of analysis is necessary, it remains incomplete. By incorporating political, social, economic and technical capabilities as well as human factors such as intent into a single, multi-faceted risk management model, proliferation risk can be evaluated more effectively. Framing this information around how to improve and expand the Regime already in place and establishing where there are gaps in the system allows for a more complete approach to risk management, mitigation and resource allocation. The research conducted here seeks to combine all three elements (intent, capability and opportunity) in a comprehensive evaluation which incorporates an assessment of state-level variables, possible proliferation pathways and technical capability. Each portion of the analysis is carried out independently then combined to illustrate the full scope of a State's nuclear infrastructure while showing areas of weakness in the institutional framework.

  13. A risk-adjusted approach to comparing the return on investment in health care programs.

    PubMed

    Sendi, Pedram; Al, Maiwenn J; Zimmermann, Heinz

    2004-09-01

    The league table approach to rank ordering health care programs according to the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is a common method to guide policy makers in setting priorities for resource allocation. In the presence of uncertainty, however, ranking programs is complicated by the degree of variability associated with each program. Confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness ratios may be overlapping. Moreover, confidence intervals may include negative ratios and the interpretation of negative cost-effectiveness ratios is ambiguous. We suggest to rank mutually exclusive health care programs according to their rate of return which is defined as the net monetary benefit over the costs of the program. However, how does a program with a higher expected return but higher uncertainty compare to a program with a lower expected return but lower risk? In the present paper we propose a risk-adjusted measure to compare the return on investment in health care programs. Financing a health care program is treated as an investment in a risky asset. The risky asset is combined with a risk-free asset in order to construct a combined portfolio. The weights attributed to the risk-free and risky assets are chosen in such a manner that all programs under consideration exhibit the same degree of uncertainty. We can then compare the performance of the individual programs by constructing a risk-adjusted league table of expected returns.

  14. A Risk-based Model Predictive Control Approach to Adaptive Interventions in Behavioral Health

    PubMed Central

    Zafra-Cabeza, Ascensión; Rivera, Daniel E.; Collins, Linda M.; Ridao, Miguel A.; Camacho, Eduardo F.

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines how control engineering and risk management techniques can be applied in the field of behavioral health through their use in the design and implementation of adaptive behavioral interventions. Adaptive interventions are gaining increasing acceptance as a means to improve prevention and treatment of chronic, relapsing disorders, such as abuse of alcohol, tobacco, and other drugs, mental illness, and obesity. A risk-based Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm is developed for a hypothetical intervention inspired by Fast Track, a real-life program whose long-term goal is the prevention of conduct disorders in at-risk children. The MPC-based algorithm decides on the appropriate frequency of counselor home visits, mentoring sessions, and the availability of after-school recreation activities by relying on a model that includes identifiable risks, their costs, and the cost/benefit assessment of mitigating actions. MPC is particularly suited for the problem because of its constraint-handling capabilities, and its ability to scale to interventions involving multiple tailoring variables. By systematically accounting for risks and adapting treatment components over time, an MPC approach as described in this paper can increase intervention effectiveness and adherence while reducing waste, resulting in advantages over conventional fixed treatment. A series of simulations are conducted under varying conditions to demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm. PMID:21643450

  15. Urban flood early warning systems: approaches to hydrometeorological forecasting and communicating risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cranston, Michael; Speight, Linda; Maxey, Richard; Tavendale, Amy; Buchanan, Peter

    2015-04-01

    One of the main challenges for the flood forecasting community remains the provision of reliable early warnings of surface (or pluvial) flooding. The Scottish Flood Forecasting Service has been developing approaches for forecasting the risk of surface water flooding including capitalising on the latest developments in quantitative precipitation forecasting from the Met Office. A probabilistic Heavy Rainfall Alert decision support tool helps operational forecasters assess the likelihood of surface water flooding against regional rainfall depth-duration estimates from MOGREPS-UK linked to historical short-duration flooding in Scotland. The surface water flood risk is communicated through the daily Flood Guidance Statement to emergency responders. A more recent development is an innovative risk-based hydrometeorological approach that links 24-hour ensemble rainfall forecasts through a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) to a library of impact assessments (Speight et al., 2015). The early warning tool - FEWS Glasgow - presents the risk of flooding to people, property and transport across a 1km grid over the city of Glasgow with a lead time of 24 hours. Communication of the risk was presented in a bespoke surface water flood forecast product designed based on emergency responder requirements and trialled during the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. The development of new approaches to surface water flood forecasting are leading to improved methods of communicating the risk and better performance in early warning with a reduction in false alarm rates with summer flood guidance in 2014 (67%) compared to 2013 (81%) - although verification of instances of surface water flooding remains difficult. However the introduction of more demanding hydrometeorological capabilities with associated greater levels of uncertainty does lead to an increased demand on operational flood forecasting skills and resources. Speight, L., Cole, S.J., Moore, R.J., Pierce, C., Wright, B., Golding, B

  16. A qualitative risk assessment approach for Swiss dairy products: opportunities and limitations.

    PubMed

    Menéndez González, S; Hartnack, S; Berger, T; Doherr, M; Breidenbach, E

    2011-05-01

    Switzerland implemented a risk-based monitoring of Swiss dairy products in 2002 based on a risk assessment (RA) that considered the probability of exceeding a microbiological limit value set by law. A new RA was launched in 2007 to review and further develop the previous assessment, and to make recommendations for future risk-based monitoring according to current risks. The resulting qualitative RA was designed to ascertain the risk to human health from the consumption of Swiss dairy products. The products and microbial hazards to be considered in the RA were determined based on a risk profile. The hazards included Campylobacter spp., Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli, coagulase-positive staphylococci and Staphylococcus aureus enterotoxin. The release assessment considered the prevalence of the hazards in bulk milk samples, the influence of the process parameters on the microorganisms, and the influence of the type of dairy. The exposure assessment was linked to the production volume. An overall probability was estimated combining the probabilities of release and exposure for each combination of hazard, dairy product and type of dairy. This overall probability represents the likelihood of a product from a certain type of dairy exceeding the microbiological limit value and being passed on to the consumer. The consequences could not be fully assessed due to lack of detailed information on the number of disease cases caused by the consumption of dairy products. The results were expressed as a ranking of overall probabilities. Finally, recommendations for the design of the risk-based monitoring programme and for filling the identified data gaps were given. The aims of this work were (i) to present the qualitative RA approach for Swiss dairy products, which could be adapted to other settings and (ii) to discuss the opportunities and limitations of the qualitative method.

  17. A developmental approach to the risk of a first recurrence in child protective services.

    PubMed

    Hélie, Sonia; Laurier, Catherine; Pineau-Villeneuve, Catherine; Royer, Marie-Noële

    2013-12-01

    The objective of this study is to estimate the risk of a first recurrence over a five-year period following initial child protective services (CPS) intervention and identify the characteristics associated with the risk of recurrence for three different age groups. Recurrence is defined as the first substantiated report within the observation period after initial services have ended. The study involved a cohort of 25,897 Quebec children who received postinvestigation services for the first time and whose cases were closed between 2005 and 2009. Survival analysis was used to estimate the five-year risk of recurrence and Cox regression to model the risk of recurrence for three age groups. The covariates introduced into the regression analyses were characteristics of the child and initial services. The risk of recurrence in the five years following termination of initial CPS services was 36% for the entire cohort and varied depending on the child's age at the time of case closure. Children aged 6-11 when their cases were closed had the highest risk of recurrence. Although Aboriginal descent and prior CPS investigations have a consistent effect on the risk of recurrence in all three age groups, the effects of other covariates, such as out-of-home placement and court involvement, vary or are even reversed, depending on the child's age. These findings highlight the need to adopt a differential approach that takes into account the child's age, both in the provision of protective services and in research involving the population receiving such services. PMID:23768933

  18. Consequences of landscape fragmentation on Lyme disease risk: a cellular automata approach.

    PubMed

    Li, Sen; Hartemink, Nienke; Speybroeck, Niko; Vanwambeke, Sophie O

    2012-01-01

    The abundance of infected Ixodid ticks is an important component of human risk of Lyme disease, and various empirical studies have shown that this is associated, at least in part, to landscape fragmentation. In this study, we aimed at exploring how varying woodland fragmentation patterns affect the risk of Lyme disease, through infected tick abundance. A cellular automata model was developed, incorporating a heterogeneous landscape with three interactive components: an age-structured tick population, a classical disease transmission function, and hosts. A set of simplifying assumptions were adopted with respect to the study objective and field data limitations. In the model, the landscape influences both tick survival and host movement. The validation of the model was performed with an empirical study. Scenarios of various landscape configurations (focusing on woodland fragmentation) were simulated and compared. Lyme disease risk indices (density and infection prevalence of nymphs) differed considerably between scenarios: (i) the risk could be higher in highly fragmented woodlands, which is supported by a number of recently published empirical studies, and (ii) grassland could reduce the risk in adjacent woodland, which suggests landscape fragmentation studies of zoonotic diseases should not focus on the patch-level woodland patterns only, but also on landscape-level adjacent land cover patterns. Further analysis of the simulation results indicated strong correlations between Lyme disease risk indices and the density, shape and aggregation level of woodland patches. These findings highlight the strong effect of the spatial patterns of local host population and movement on the spatial dynamics of Lyme disease risks, which can be shaped by woodland fragmentation. In conclusion, using a cellular automata approach is beneficial for modelling complex zoonotic transmission systems as it can be combined with either real world landscapes for exploring direct spatial

  19. Limitations of the toxic equivalency factor (TEF) approach for risk assessment of halogenated aromatic hydrocarbons

    SciTech Connect

    Safe, S.

    1995-12-31

    2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) and related halogenated aromatic hydrocarbons (HAHs) are present as complex mixtures of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and biphenyls (PCBs) in most environmental matrices. Risk management of these mixtures utilize the toxic equivalency factor (TEF) approach in which the TCDD (dioxin) or toxic equivalents of a mixture is a summation of the congener concentration (Ci) times TEF{sub i} (potency relative to TCDD) where. TEQ{sub mixture} = {Sigma}[Cil] {times} TEF{sub i}. TEQs are determined only for those HAHs which are aryl hydrocarbon (Ah) receptor agonists and this approach assumes that the toxic or biochemical effects of individual compounds in a mixture are additive. Several in vivo and in vitro laboratory and field studies with different HAH mixtures have been utilized to validate the TEF approach. For some responses, the calculated toxicities of PCDD/PCDF and PCB mixtures predict the observed toxic potencies. However, for fetal cleft palate and immunotoxicity in mice, nonadditive (antagonistic) responses are observed using complex PCB mixtures or binary mixtures containing an Ah receptor agonist with 2,2{prime},4,4{prime},5,5{prime}-hexachlorobiphenyl (PCB153). The potential interactive effects of PCBs and other dietary Ah receptor antagonist suggest that the TEF approach for risk management of HAHs requires further refinement and should be used selectively.

  20. Risk management for moisture related effects in dry manufacturing processes: a statistical approach.

    PubMed

    Quiroz, Jorge; Strong, John; Zhang, Lanju

    2016-03-01

    A risk- and science-based approach to control the quality in pharmaceutical manufacturing includes a full understanding of how product attributes and process parameters relate to product performance through a proactive approach in formulation and process development. For dry manufacturing, where moisture content is not directly manipulated within the process, the variability in moisture of the incoming raw materials can impact both the processability and drug product quality attributes. A statistical approach is developed using individual raw material historical lots as a basis for the calculation of tolerance intervals for drug product moisture content so that risks associated with excursions in moisture content can be mitigated. The proposed method is based on a model-independent approach that uses available data to estimate parameters of interest that describe the population of blend moisture content values and which do not require knowledge of the individual blend moisture content values. Another advantage of the proposed tolerance intervals is that, it does not require the use of tabulated values for tolerance factors. This facilitates the implementation on any spreadsheet program like Microsoft Excel. A computational example is used to demonstrate the proposed method.

  1. An Integrated Risk Approach for Assessing the Use of Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts in Hydroelectric Reservoir Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowry, T. S.; Wigmosta, M.; Barco, J.; Voisin, N.; Bier, A.; Coleman, A.; Skaggs, R.

    2012-12-01

    This paper presents an integrated risk approach using ensemble streamflow forecasts for optimizing hydro-electric power generation. Uncertainty in the streamflow forecasts are translated into integrated risk by calculating the deviation of an optimized release schedule that simultaneously maximizes power generation and environmental performance from release schedules that maximize the two objectives individually. The deviations from each target are multiplied by the probability of occurrence and then summed across all probabilities to get the integrated risk. The integrated risk is used to determine which operational scheme exposes the operator to the least amount of risk or conversely, what are the consequences of basing future operations on a particular prediction. Decisions can be made with regards to the tradeoff between power generation, environmental performance, and exposure to risk. The Hydropower Seasonal Concurrent Optimization for Power and Environment (HydroSCOPE) model developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is used to model the flow, temperature, and power generation and is coupled with the DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) optimization package to identify the maximum potential power generation, the maximum environmental performance, and the optimal operational scheme that maximizes both for each instance of the ensemble forecasts. The ensemble forecasts were developed in a collaborative effort between the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the University of Washington to develop an Enhanced Hydrologic Forecasting System (EHFS) that incorporates advanced ensemble forecasting approaches and algorithms, spatiotemporal datasets, and automated data acquisition and processing. Both the HydroSCOPE model and the EHFS forecast tool are being developed as part of a larger, multi-laboratory water-use optimization project funded through the US Department of Energy. The simulations were based on the

  2. An integrated subsurface modeling and risk assessment approach for managing the petroleum-contaminated sites.

    PubMed

    Liu, L; Huang, G H; Hao, R X; Cheng, S Y

    2004-01-01

    Soil and groundwater contamination can lead to a variety of impacts and risks to the communities. Identifications of management schemes with sound environmental and socio-economic efficiencies is desired. In fact, before any decisions regarding site remediation actions can be made, three major questions may have to be answered. They include "What happened underground, and what will happen in the future under the given remediation scenarios?," "Are there specific risks on the surrounding community?" and "What remediation alternatives are suitable for the site?" In this study, an integrated subsurface modeling and risk assessment method for petroleum-contaminated site management is proposed. It incorporates multi-phase flow multi-component transport modeling and ELCR-based human health risk assessment into a general framework. The proposed method is applied to a case study within a western Canada context for identifying effective management schemes with improved environmental and socio-economic efficiencies. Given conditions at the study site, six remediation alternatives based on combinations of several technologies are recommended, with the provision of analyses for equipment/manpower requirements, system designs, operations, efficiencies, and costs. These alternatives can be categorized into two groups: hybrid ex situ and in situ remediation approaches, and integrated in situ remediation approaches. This study is a new attempt that integrates issues of subsurface-contamination simulation, risk assessment, and site remediation for a real-world problem within a general research framework. The research outputs are directly useful for the industry to gain insight of the site and to make decisions of the relevant remediation actions.

  3. An approach for environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference rules.

    PubMed

    Topuz, Emel; van Gestel, Cornelis A M

    2016-01-01

    The usage of Engineered Nanoparticles (ENPs) in consumer products is relatively new and there is a need to conduct environmental risk assessment (ERA) to evaluate their impacts on the environment. However, alternative approaches are required for ERA of ENPs because of the huge gap in data and knowledge compared to conventional pollutants and their unique properties that make it difficult to apply existing approaches. This study aims to propose an ERA approach for ENPs by integrating Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference models which provide a systematic evaluation of risk factors and reducing uncertainty about the data and information, respectively. Risk is assumed to be the combination of occurrence likelihood, exposure potential and toxic effects in the environment. A hierarchy was established to evaluate the sub factors of these components. Evaluation was made with fuzzy numbers to reduce uncertainty and incorporate the expert judgements. Overall score of each component was combined with fuzzy inference rules by using expert judgements. Proposed approach reports the risk class and its membership degree such as Minor (0.7). Therefore, results are precise and helpful to determine the risk management strategies. Moreover, priority weights calculated by comparing the risk factors based on their importance for the risk enable users to understand which factor is effective on the risk. Proposed approach was applied for Ag (two nanoparticles with different coating) and TiO2 nanoparticles for different case studies. Results verified the proposed benefits of the approach. PMID:27131016

  4. Landslide risk impact management and web services for improving resilience: the LIFE+IMAGINE project approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Congi, Maria Pia; Campo, Valentina; Cipolloni, Carlo; Delmonaco, Giuseppe; Guerrieri, Luca; Iadanza, Carla; Spizzichino, Daniele; Trigila, Alessandro

    2014-05-01

    The increasing damage caused by natural disasters in the last decades points out the need for interoperable added-value services to support environmental safety and human protection, by reducing vulnerability of exposed elements as well as improving the resilience of the involved communities. For this reason, to provide access to harmonized and customized data is only one of several steps towards delivering adequate support to risk assessment, reduction and management. Scope of the present work is to illustrate a methodology under development for analysis of potential impacts in areas prone to landslide hazard in the framework of the EC project LIFE+IMAGINE. The project aims to implement an infrastructure based on web services for environmental analysis, that integrates in its own architecture specifications and results from INSPIRE, SEIS and GMES. Existing web services will be customized during the project to provide functionalities for supporting the environmental integrated management. The implemented infrastructure will be applied to landslide risk scenarios, to be developed in selected pilot areas, aiming at: i) application of standard procedures to implement a landslide risk analysis; ii) definition of a procedure for assessment of potential environmental impacts, based on a set of indicators to estimate the different exposed elements with their specific vulnerability in the pilot area. More in detail, the landslide pilot will be aimed at providing a landslide risk scenario through the implementation and analysis of: 1) a landslide inventory from available historical databases and maps; 2) landslide susceptibility and hazard maps; 3) assessment of exposure and vulnerability on selected typologies of elements at risk; 4) implementation of a landslide risk scenario for different sets of exposed elements (e.g. population, road network, residential area, cultural heritage). The pilot will be implemented in Liguria, Italy, in two different catchment areas located

  5. A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

    2014-10-01

    Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in

  6. A statistical approach to evaluate flood risk at the regional level: an application to Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossi, Mauro; Marchesini, Ivan; Salvati, Paola; Donnini, Marco; Guzzetti, Fausto; Sterlacchini, Simone; Zazzeri, Marco; Bonazzi, Alessandro; Carlesi, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    Floods are frequent and widespread in Italy, causing every year multiple fatalities and extensive damages to public and private structures. A pre-requisite for the development of mitigation schemes, including financial instruments such as insurance, is the ability to quantify their costs starting from the estimation of the underlying flood hazard. However, comprehensive and coherent information on flood prone areas, and estimates on the frequency and intensity of flood events, are not often available at scales appropriate for risk pooling and diversification. In Italy, River Basins Hydrogeological Plans (PAI), prepared by basin administrations, are the basic descriptive, regulatory, technical and operational tools for environmental planning in flood prone areas. Nevertheless, such plans do not cover the entire Italian territory, having significant gaps along the minor hydrographic network and in ungauged basins. Several process-based modelling approaches have been used by different basin administrations for the flood hazard assessment, resulting in an inhomogeneous hazard zonation of the territory. As a result, flood hazard assessments expected and damage estimations across the different Italian basin administrations are not always coherent. To overcome these limitations, we propose a simplified multivariate statistical approach for the regional flood hazard zonation coupled with a flood impact model. This modelling approach has been applied in different Italian basin administrations, allowing a preliminary but coherent and comparable estimation of the flood hazard and the relative impact. Model performances are evaluated comparing the predicted flood prone areas with the corresponding PAI zonation. The proposed approach will provide standardized information (following the EU Floods Directive specifications) on flood risk at a regional level which can in turn be more readily applied to assess flood economic impacts. Furthermore, in the assumption of an appropriate

  7. Traits-based approaches in bioassessment and ecological risk assessment: strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

    PubMed

    Van den Brink, Paul J; Alexander, Alexa C; Desrosiers, Mélanie; Goedkoop, Willem; Goethals, Peter L M; Liess, Matthias; Dyer, Scott D

    2011-04-01

    We discuss the application of traits-based bioassessment approaches in retrospective bioassessment as well as in prospective ecological risk assessments in regulatory frameworks. Both approaches address the interaction between species and stressors and their consequences at different levels of biological organization, but the fact that a specific species may be less abundant in a potentially impacted site compared with a reference site is, regrettably, insufficient to provide diagnostic information. Species traits may, however, overcome the problems associated with taxonomy-based bioassessment. Trait-based approaches could provide signals regarding what environmental factors may be responsible for the impairment and, thereby, provide causal insight into the interaction between species and stressors. For development of traits-based (TBA), traits should correspond to specific types of stressors or suites of stressors. In this paper, a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis of TBA in both applications was used to identify challenges and potentials. This paper is part of a series describing the output of the TERA (Traits-based ecological risk assessment: Realising the potential of ecoinformatics approaches in ecotoxicology) Workshop held between 7 and 11 September, 2009, in Burlington, Ontario, Canada. The recognized strengths were that traits are transferrable across geographies, add mechanistic and diagnostic knowledge, require no new sampling methodology, have an old tradition, and can supplement taxonomic analysis. Weaknesses include autocorrelation, redundancy, and inability to protect biodiversity directly. Automated image analysis, combined with genetic and biotechnology tools and improved data analysis to solve autocorrelation problems were identified as opportunities, whereas low availability of trait data, their transferability, their quantitative interpretation, the risk of developing nonrelevant traits, low quality of historic

  8. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  9. Risk management in medical product development process using traditional FMEA and fuzzy linguistic approach: a case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirkire, Milind Shrikant; Rane, Santosh B.; Jadhav, Jagdish Rajaram

    2015-05-01

    Medical product development (MPD) process is highly multidisciplinary in nature, which increases the complexity and the associated risks. Managing the risks during MPD process is very crucial. The objective of this research is to explore risks during MPD in a dental product manufacturing company and propose a model for risk mitigation during MPD process to minimize failure events. A case study approach is employed. The existing MPD process is mapped with five phases of the customized phase gate process. The activities during each phase of development and risks associated with each activity are identified and categorized based on the source of occurrence. The risks are analyzed using traditional Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) and fuzzy FMEA. The results of two methods when compared show that fuzzy approach avoids the duplication of RPNs and helps more to convert cognition of experts into information to get values of risk factors. The critical, moderate, low level and negligible risks are identified based on criticality; risk treatments and mitigation model are proposed. During initial phases of MPD, the risks are less severe, but as the process progresses the severity of risks goes on increasing. The MPD process should be critically designed and simulated to minimize the number of risk events and their severity. To successfully develop the products/devices within the manufacturing companies, the process risk management is very essential. A systematic approach to manage risks during MPD process will lead to the development of medical products with expected quality and reliability. This is the first research of its kind having focus on MPD process risks and its management. The methodology adopted in this paper will help the developers, managers and researchers to have a competitive edge over the other companies by managing the risks during the development process.

  10. Use of an ecologically relevant modelling approach to improve remote sensing-based schistosomiasis risk profiling.

    PubMed

    Walz, Yvonne; Wegmann, Martin; Leutner, Benjamin; Dech, Stefan; Vounatsou, Penelope; N'Goran, Eliézer K; Raso, Giovanna; Utzinger, Jürg

    2015-11-30

    Schistosomiasis is a widespread water-based disease that puts close to 800 million people at risk of infection with more than 250 million infected, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa. Transmission is governed by the spatial distribution of specific freshwater snails that act as intermediate hosts and the frequency, duration and extent of human bodies exposed to infested water sources during human water contact. Remote sensing data have been utilized for spatially explicit risk profiling of schistosomiasis. Since schistosomiasis risk profiling based on remote sensing data inherits a conceptual drawback if school-based disease prevalence data are directly related to the remote sensing measurements extracted at the location of the school, because the disease transmission usually does not exactly occur at the school, we took the local environment around the schools into account by explicitly linking ecologically relevant environmental information of potential disease transmission sites to survey measurements of disease prevalence. Our models were validated at two sites with different landscapes in Côte d'Ivoire using high- and moderate-resolution remote sensing data based on random forest and partial least squares regression. We found that the ecologically relevant modelling approach explained up to 70% of the variation in Schistosoma infection prevalence and performed better compared to a purely pixel-based modelling approach. Furthermore, our study showed that model performance increased as a function of enlarging the school catchment area, confirming the hypothesis that suitable environments for schistosomiasis transmission rarely occur at the location of survey measurements.

  11. Ecological risks of trace metals in Guanabara Bay, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: An index analysis approach.

    PubMed

    de Carvalho Aguiar, Valquiria Maria; de Lima, Michelle Nunes; Abuchacra, Rodrigo Coutinho; Abuchacra, Paula Ferreira Falheiro; Neto, José Antônio Baptista; Borges, Heloísa Vargas; de Oliveira, Vitor Calôr

    2016-11-01

    Total concentrations of Ni, Cr, Cu, Pb and Zn were determined in surface sediments from 30 stations in Guanabara Bay in 1999 and 2008. An approach using various environmental indices was used to assess contamination status of metals. This approach allowed the comparison with different coastal areas. Background Enrichment Index, Contamination index and Ecological Risk index (Pollution Load Index; Sediment Quality Guideline Quotient and Ecological Risk Index) were calculated for the metals. Results revealed a great load of organic matter and significant increases in Cu and Pb levels between 1999 and 2008. The concentrations of Cr and Zn were of great concern, surpassing the values of Probable Effect Level reference values. In spite of the differences of each index, results effectively revealed the striking contamination in Guanabara Bay concerning trace metals, and also suggested potential risk to local biota. The contamination of the northwest area was notably higher than the rest of the bay. In comparison with some other coastal bays around the world, Guanabara Bay stood out as a remarkably contaminated environment. PMID:27479775

  12. Integrating risk and resilience approaches to catastrophe management in engineering systems.

    PubMed

    Park, J; Seager, T P; Rao, P S C; Convertino, M; Linkov, I

    2013-03-01

    Recent natural and man-made catastrophes, such as the Fukushima nuclear power plant, flooding caused by Hurricane Katrina, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the Haiti earthquake, and the mortgage derivatives crisis, have renewed interest in the concept of resilience, especially as it relates to complex systems vulnerable to multiple or cascading failures. Although the meaning of resilience is contested in different contexts, in general resilience is understood to mean the capacity to adapt to changing conditions without catastrophic loss of form or function. In the context of engineering systems, this has sometimes been interpreted as the probability that system conditions might exceed an irrevocable tipping point. However, we argue that this approach improperly conflates resilience and risk perspectives by expressing resilience exclusively in risk terms. In contrast, we describe resilience as an emergent property of what an engineering system does, rather than a static property the system has. Therefore, resilience cannot be measured at the systems scale solely from examination of component parts. Instead, resilience is better understood as the outcome of a recursive process that includes: sensing, anticipation, learning, and adaptation. In this approach, resilience analysis can be understood as differentiable from, but complementary to, risk analysis, with important implications for the adaptive management of complex, coupled engineering systems. Management of the 2011 flooding in the Mississippi River Basin is discussed as an example of the successes and challenges of resilience-based management of complex natural systems that have been extensively altered by engineered structures.

  13. A risk-based approach to assess projected yield changes at regional scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lissner, Tabea; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Mueller, Christoph

    2015-04-01

    Impacts of climate change on agricultural production are likely to negatively affect food security. However, large uncertainties exist in future projections of agricultural yields as well as regional differences in the direction and magnitude of the projected changes. An important question with regard to uncertainties in future crop yield projections is how to translate the modelling range into results meaningful for impact analyses and provide policy-relevant information. One way of addressing this question is to use a risk-based approach, analysing the risk of yield reductions at different levels of temperature increase on the basis of modelling intercomparison data (AgMIP). To assess regional scale differences in yield changes, we look at aggregates of agricultural production within the 26 regions defined in the IPCC SREX report. Using the available output of the AgMIP project, we assess the projected risk of regional yield reductions for maize, rice, wheat and soy at incremental steps of 0.5°C warming. Based on production areas of the year 2000 (MIRCA2000, Portmann, 2011), we assess projected yield changes only within current production areas, thereby excluding potential cropland expansion. Our approach provides an additional view-point to the existing analyses of the output of the AgMIP project. References: Portmann, F.T. (2011): Global estimation of monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas on a 5 arc-minute grid. Frankfurt Hydrology Paper 09, Institute of Physical Geography, University of Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

  14. Integrating risk and resilience approaches to catastrophe management in engineering systems.

    PubMed

    Park, J; Seager, T P; Rao, P S C; Convertino, M; Linkov, I

    2013-03-01

    Recent natural and man-made catastrophes, such as the Fukushima nuclear power plant, flooding caused by Hurricane Katrina, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the Haiti earthquake, and the mortgage derivatives crisis, have renewed interest in the concept of resilience, especially as it relates to complex systems vulnerable to multiple or cascading failures. Although the meaning of resilience is contested in different contexts, in general resilience is understood to mean the capacity to adapt to changing conditions without catastrophic loss of form or function. In the context of engineering systems, this has sometimes been interpreted as the probability that system conditions might exceed an irrevocable tipping point. However, we argue that this approach improperly conflates resilience and risk perspectives by expressing resilience exclusively in risk terms. In contrast, we describe resilience as an emergent property of what an engineering system does, rather than a static property the system has. Therefore, resilience cannot be measured at the systems scale solely from examination of component parts. Instead, resilience is better understood as the outcome of a recursive process that includes: sensing, anticipation, learning, and adaptation. In this approach, resilience analysis can be understood as differentiable from, but complementary to, risk analysis, with important implications for the adaptive management of complex, coupled engineering systems. Management of the 2011 flooding in the Mississippi River Basin is discussed as an example of the successes and challenges of resilience-based management of complex natural systems that have been extensively altered by engineered structures. PMID:22967095

  15. Ecological risks of trace metals in Guanabara Bay, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: An index analysis approach.

    PubMed

    de Carvalho Aguiar, Valquiria Maria; de Lima, Michelle Nunes; Abuchacra, Rodrigo Coutinho; Abuchacra, Paula Ferreira Falheiro; Neto, José Antônio Baptista; Borges, Heloísa Vargas; de Oliveira, Vitor Calôr

    2016-11-01

    Total concentrations of Ni, Cr, Cu, Pb and Zn were determined in surface sediments from 30 stations in Guanabara Bay in 1999 and 2008. An approach using various environmental indices was used to assess contamination status of metals. This approach allowed the comparison with different coastal areas. Background Enrichment Index, Contamination index and Ecological Risk index (Pollution Load Index; Sediment Quality Guideline Quotient and Ecological Risk Index) were calculated for the metals. Results revealed a great load of organic matter and significant increases in Cu and Pb levels between 1999 and 2008. The concentrations of Cr and Zn were of great concern, surpassing the values of Probable Effect Level reference values. In spite of the differences of each index, results effectively revealed the striking contamination in Guanabara Bay concerning trace metals, and also suggested potential risk to local biota. The contamination of the northwest area was notably higher than the rest of the bay. In comparison with some other coastal bays around the world, Guanabara Bay stood out as a remarkably contaminated environment.

  16. Approach for Mitigating Pressure Garment Design Risks in a Mobile Lunar Surface Systems Architecture

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aitchison, Lindsay

    2009-01-01

    The stated goals of the 2004 Vision for Space Exploration focus on establishing a human presence throughout the solar system beginning with the establishment of a permanent human presence on the Moon. However, the precise objectives to be accomplished on the lunar surface and the optimal system architecture to achieve those objectives have been a topic of much debate since the inception of the Constellation Program. There are two basic styles of system architectures being traded at the Programmatic level: a traditional large outpost that would focus on techniques for survival off our home planet and a greater depth of exploration within one area, or a mobile approach- akin to a series of nomadic camps- that would allow greater breadth of exploration opportunities. The traditional outpost philosophy is well within the understood pressure garment design space with respect to developing interfaces and operational life cycle models. The mobile outpost, however, combines many unknowns with respect to pressure garment performance and reliability that could dramatically affect the cost and schedule risks associated with the Constellation space suit system. This paper provides an overview of the concepts being traded for a mobile architecture from the operations and hardware implementation perspective, describes the primary risks to the Constellation pressure garment associated with each of the concepts, and summarizes the approach necessary to quantify the pressure garment design risks to enable the Constellation Program to make informed decisions when deciding on an overall lunar surface systems architecture.

  17. A practical approach for implementing risk-based inservice testing of pumps at nuclear power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Hartley, R.S.; Maret, D.; Seniuk, P.; Smith, L.

    1996-12-01

    The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Center for Research and Technology Development`s (CRTD) Research Task Force on Risk-Based Inservice Testing has developed guidelines for risk-based inservice testing (IST) of pumps and valves. These guidelines are intended to help the ASME Operation and Maintenance (OM) Committee to enhance plant safety while focussing appropriate testing resources on critical components. This paper describes a practical approach for implementing those guidelines for pumps at nuclear power plants. The approach, as described in this paper, relies on input, direction, and assistance from several entities such as the ASME Code Committees, United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and the National Laboratories, as well as industry groups and personnel with applicable expertise. Key parts of the risk-based IST process that are addressed here include: identification of important failure modes, identification of significant failure causes, assessing the effectiveness of testing and maintenance activities, development of alternative testing and maintenance strategies, and assessing the effectiveness of alternative testing strategies with present ASME Code requirements. Finally, the paper suggests a method of implementing this process into the ASME OM Code for pump testing.

  18. On the complex definition of risk: a systems-based approach.

    PubMed

    Haimes, Yacov Y

    2009-12-01

    The premise of this article is that risk to a system, as well as its vulnerability and resilience, can be understood, defined, and quantified most effectively through a systems-based philosophical and methodological approach, and by recognizing the central role of the system states in this process. A universally agreed-upon definition of risk has been difficult to develop; one reason is that the concept is multidimensional and nuanced. It requires an understanding that risk to a system is inherently and fundamentally a function of the initiating event, the states of the system and of its environment, and the time frame. In defining risk, this article posits that: (a) the performance capabilities of a system are a function of its state vector; (b) a system's vulnerability and resilience vectors are each a function of the input (e.g., initiating event), its time of occurrence, and the states of the system; (c) the consequences are a function of the specificity and time of the event, the vector of the states, the vulnerability, and the resilience of the system; (d) the states of a system are time-dependent and commonly fraught with variability uncertainties and knowledge uncertainties; and (e) risk is a measure of the probability and severity of consequences. The above implies that modeling must evaluate consequences for each risk scenario as functions of the threat (initiating event), the vulnerability and resilience of the system, and the time of the event. This fundamentally complex modeling and analysis process cannot be performed correctly and effectively without relying on the states of the system being studied. PMID:19948003

  19. On the complex definition of risk: a systems-based approach.

    PubMed

    Haimes, Yacov Y

    2009-12-01

    The premise of this article is that risk to a system, as well as its vulnerability and resilience, can be understood, defined, and quantified most effectively through a systems-based philosophical and methodological approach, and by recognizing the central role of the system states in this process. A universally agreed-upon definition of risk has been difficult to develop; one reason is that the concept is multidimensional and nuanced. It requires an understanding that risk to a system is inherently and fundamentally a function of the initiating event, the states of the system and of its environment, and the time frame. In defining risk, this article posits that: (a) the performance capabilities of a system are a function of its state vector; (b) a system's vulnerability and resilience vectors are each a function of the input (e.g., initiating event), its time of occurrence, and the states of the system; (c) the consequences are a function of the specificity and time of the event, the vector of the states, the vulnerability, and the resilience of the system; (d) the states of a system are time-dependent and commonly fraught with variability uncertainties and knowledge uncertainties; and (e) risk is a measure of the probability and severity of consequences. The above implies that modeling must evaluate consequences for each risk scenario as functions of the threat (initiating event), the vulnerability and resilience of the system, and the time of the event. This fundamentally complex modeling and analysis process cannot be performed correctly and effectively without relying on the states of the system being studied.

  20. Environmental auditing: An approach for characterizing tropospheric ozone risk to forests

    SciTech Connect

    Hogsett, W.E.; Weber, J.E.; Tingey, D.; Herstrom, A.; Lee, E.H.; Laurence, J.A.

    1997-01-01

    The risk tropospheric ozone poses to forests in the United States dependents on the variation in ozone exposure across the forests and the various environmental and climate factors predominant in the region. All these factors have a spatial nature; an approach to characterization of ozone risk is presented that places ozone exposure-response functions for species as seedlings and model-simulated tree and stand responses in a spatial context using a geographical information systems (GIS). The GIS is used to aggregate factors considered important in a risk characterization: (1) estimated ozone exposures over forested regions, (2) measures of ozone effects on species` and stand growth, and (3) spatially distributed environmental, genetic, and exposure influences on species` response to ozone. The GIS-based risk characterization provides an estimation the extent and magnitude of the potential ozone impact on forests. A preliminary risk characterization demonstrating this considered only the eastern United States and only the limited empirical data quantifying the effect of ozone exposures on forest tree species as seedlings. The area-weighted response of the annual seedling biomass loss formed the basis for a sensitivity ranking: sensitive-aspen and black cherry (14%-33% biomass loss over 50% of their distribution); moderately sensitive-tulip popular, loblolly pine, eastern white pine, and sugar maple (5%-13% biomass loss); insensitive-Virginia pine and red maple (0%-1% loss). Future GIS-based risk characterizations will include process-based model simulations of the three- to 5-year growth response of individual species as large trees. The interactive nature of GIS provides a tool to explore consequences of the range of climate conditions across a species` distribution, forest management practices, changing ozone precursors, regulatory control strategies, and other factors influencing the spatial distribution of ozone over time. 43 refs., 11 figs., 3 tabs.

  1. Quantitative risk assessment for skin sensitisation: consideration of a simplified approach for hair dye ingredients.

    PubMed

    Goebel, Carsten; Diepgen, Thomas L; Krasteva, Maya; Schlatter, Harald; Nicolas, Jean-Francois; Blömeke, Brunhilde; Coenraads, Pieter Jan; Schnuch, Axel; Taylor, James S; Pungier, Jacquemine; Fautz, Rolf; Fuchs, Anne; Schuh, Werner; Gerberick, G Frank; Kimber, Ian

    2012-12-01

    With the availability of the local lymph node assay, and the ability to evaluate effectively the relative skin sensitizing potency of contact allergens, a model for quantitative-risk-assessment (QRA) has been developed. This QRA process comprises: (a) determination of a no-expected-sensitisation-induction-level (NESIL), (b) incorporation of sensitization-assessment-factors (SAFs) reflecting variations between subjects, product use patterns and matrices, and (c) estimation of consumer-exposure-level (CEL). Based on these elements an acceptable-exposure-level (AEL) can be calculated by dividing the NESIL of the product by individual SAFs. Finally, the AEL is compared with the CEL to judge about risks to human health. We propose a simplified approach to risk assessment of hair dye ingredients by making use of precise experimental product exposure data. This data set provides firmly established dose/unit area concentrations under relevant consumer use conditions referred to as the measured-exposure-level (MEL). For that reason a direct comparison is possible between the NESIL with the MEL as a proof-of-concept quantification of the risk of skin sensitization. This is illustrated here by reference to two specific hair dye ingredients p-phenylenediamine and resorcinol. Comparison of these robust and toxicologically relevant values is therefore considered an improvement versus a hazard-based classification of hair dye ingredients. PMID:23069142

  2. A Naive Bayes machine learning approach to risk prediction using censored, time-to-event data.

    PubMed

    Wolfson, Julian; Bandyopadhyay, Sunayan; Elidrisi, Mohamed; Vazquez-Benitez, Gabriela; Vock, David M; Musgrove, Donald; Adomavicius, Gediminas; Johnson, Paul E; O'Connor, Patrick J

    2015-09-20

    Predicting an individual's risk of experiencing a future clinical outcome is a statistical task with important consequences for both practicing clinicians and public health experts. Modern observational databases such as electronic health records provide an alternative to the longitudinal cohort studies traditionally used to construct risk models, bringing with them both opportunities and challenges. Large sample sizes and detailed covariate histories enable the use of sophisticated machine learning techniques to uncover complex associations and interactions, but observational databases are often 'messy', with high levels of missing data and incomplete patient follow-up. In this paper, we propose an adaptation of the well-known Naive Bayes machine learning approach to time-to-event outcomes subject to censoring. We compare the predictive performance of our method with the Cox proportional hazards model which is commonly used for risk prediction in healthcare populations, and illustrate its application to prediction of cardiovascular risk using an electronic health record dataset from a large Midwest integrated healthcare system.

  3. Approach to Lipid Screening as a Risk Marker for Cardiovascular Disease in Pediatric Patients with Diabetes

    PubMed Central

    Law, Jennifer Rachel; Patel, Shipra; Spagnoli, Anna

    2011-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a well-known complication of diabetes mellitus (DM), and patients with DM are at an increased risk for early onset of CVD. Hyperglycemia is believed to be the primary mediator in premature development of atherosclerosis in patients with DM, but there are also derangements in cholesterol levels and inflammatory markers beyond the explanation of hyperglycemia. Although clinicians often screen for dyslipidemia as part of routine care for children and adolescents with DM, many do not feel comfortable treating this condition. Multiple guidelines exist to help clinicians with the prevention, screening, and treatment of CVD risk factors in pediatric patients with DM, but the guidelines do not always agree on screening intervals or medical treatment. Furthermore, the cost-effectiveness of medication use in this population has not been established. Research has advanced our understanding of the role of other biomarkers and radiologic studies of CVD risk, but these studies do not currently have a place in routine clinical practice. It is evident that the increased CVD risk in pediatric patients with DM is complex in origin and the optimal approach to managing dyslipidemia remains unclear. Therefore, an algorithm designed at the University of North Carolina (UNC), Division of Pediatric Endocrinology, is presented to help guide clinicians through screening and treatment of dyslipidemia in youth with DM. PMID:22649373

  4. Incorporation of a risk analysis approach for the nuclear fuel cycle advanced transparency framework.

    SciTech Connect

    Mendez, Carmen Margarita; York, David L.; Inoue, Naoko; Kitabata, Takuya; Vugrin, Eric D.; Vugrin, Kay White; Rochau, Gary Eugene; Cleary, Virginia D.

    2007-05-01

    Proliferation resistance features that reduce the likelihood of diversion of nuclear materials from the civilian nuclear power fuel cycle are critical for a global nuclear future. A framework that monitors process information continuously can demonstrate the ability to resist proliferation by measuring and reducing diversion risk, thus ensuring the legitimate use of the nuclear fuel cycle. The automation of new nuclear facilities requiring minimal manual operation makes this possible by generating instantaneous system state data that can be used to track and measure the status of the process and material at any given time. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) are working in cooperation to develop an advanced transparency framework capable of assessing diversion risk in support of overall plant transparency. The ''diversion risk'' quantifies the probability and consequence of a host nation diverting nuclear materials from a civilian fuel cycle facility. This document introduces the details of the diversion risk quantification approach to be demonstrated in the fuel handling training model of the MONJU Fast Reactor.

  5. Resolving public conflict in site selection process - a risk communication approach

    SciTech Connect

    Ishizaka, Kaoru; Tanaka, Masaru

    2003-07-01

    In Japan, conflicts regarding the siting of waste disposal facilities occur frequently. In particular, siting of incinerators and landfills has become increasingly difficult because the public is highly concerned about the dioxin issues. Inefficient siting of waste disposal facilities causes several social problems, such as the shortage of waste treatment and disposal facilities, the rising of waste management costs and an increase in the consumption of resources. While dealing with a similar situation, the Chemical Society of Japan adopted a risk communication technique successfully. Hence, the pragmatic use of a risk communication technique is proposed to avoid conflicts and for a smooth information exchange to seek cooperation in waste management. In order to achieve this, a study was conducted to resolve conflicts between residents and the municipality for the selection of site for a solid waste treatment and disposal facility. This study aims to discuss the subject of risk communication for the waste disposal system in Japan. This study is performed through personal interviews and a questionnaire covering opposing parties in the town. As a result of the survey, a risk communication approach for a waste treatment and disposal system is presented in the paper addressing issues such as building of social trust, pragmatic use of the communication process, installation of credible information sources, and environmental education and awareness.

  6. Modified approach to use of DOE-STD-3009 example risk matrices.

    SciTech Connect

    Atwood, Ginger A.

    2008-04-01

    DOE-STD-3009, Preparation Guide for US Department of Energy Non-reactor Nuclear Facilities Documented Safety Analyses, identifies a methodology for selection of high risk accidents and hazard scenarios for Hazard Category 1, 2, and 3 Nuclear Facilities and their controls. It provides examples of risk matrices which can be used as a part of this methodology. It also states, 'There is no one correct approach or presentation'. Sandia has used a modified version of these examples to focus control selection on controls that provide the highest risk to the public and the workers. Sandia's matrix assigns a lower risk level to high probability, low consequence events that are covered by institutional safety programs. The objective of this paper is to serve as a point of discussion on the benefits of using this modification to the DOE-STD-3009 examples. The paper relates to the workshop subtopic of Lessons Learned and Hazards Analysis since it provides lessons learned in hazard analysis process at SNL.

  7. One-loop diagrams in AdS space

    SciTech Connect

    Hung Lingyan; Shang Yanwen

    2011-01-15

    We study the complex scalar loop corrections to the boundary-boundary gauge two-point function in pure AdS space in Poincare coordinates, in the presence of boundary quadratic perturbations to the scalar. These perturbations correspond to double-trace perturbations in the dual CFT and modify the boundary conditions of the bulk scalars in AdS. We find that, in addition to the usual UV divergences, the one-loop calculation suffers from a divergence originating in the limit as the loop vertices approach the AdS horizon. We show that this type of divergence is independent of the boundary coupling; making use of this we extract the finite relative variation of the imaginary part of the loop via Cutkosky rules as the boundary perturbation varies. Applying our methods to compute the effects of a time-dependent impurity to the conductivities using the replica trick in AdS/CFT, we find that generally an IR-relevant disorder reduces the conductivity and that in the extreme low frequency limit the correction due to the impurities overwhelms the planar CFT result even though it is supposedly 1/N{sup 2} suppressed. We also comment on the more physical scenario of a time-independent impurity.

  8. Semiclassical Virasoro blocks from AdS3 gravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hijano, Eliot; Kraus, Per; Perlmutter, Eric; Snively, River

    2015-12-01

    We present a unified framework for the holographic computation of Virasoro conformal blocks at large central charge. In particular, we provide bulk constructions that correctly reproduce all semiclassical Virasoro blocks that are known explicitly from conformal field theory computations. The results revolve around the use of geodesic Witten diagrams, recently introduced in [1], evaluated in locally AdS3 geometries generated by backreaction of heavy operators. We also provide an alternative computation of the heavy-light semiclassical block — in which two external operators become parametrically heavy — as a certain scattering process involving higher spin gauge fields in AdS3; this approach highlights the chiral nature of Virasoro blocks. These techniques may be systematically extended to compute corrections to these blocks and to interpolate amongst the different semiclassical regimes.

  9. AdS6 solutions of type II supergravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Apruzzi, Fabio; Fazzi, Marco; Passias, Achilleas; Rosa, Dario; Tomasiello, Alessandro

    2014-11-01

    Very few AdS6 × M 4 supersymmetric solutions are known: one in massive IIA, and two IIB solutions dual to it. The IIA solution is known to be unique; in this paper, we use the pure spinor approach to give a classification for IIB supergravity. We reduce the problem to two PDEs on a two-dimensional space Σ. M 4 is then a fibration of S 2 over Σ; the metric and fluxes are completely determined in terms of the solution to the PDEs. The results seem likely to accommodate near-horizon limits of ( p, q)-fivebrane webs studied in the literature as a source of CFT5's. We also show that there are no AdS6 solutions in eleven-dimensional supergravity.

  10. Risk management approach for de-orbiting of the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmed, Mansoor; Mangus, David; Burch, Preston

    2001-10-01

    De-orbiting of space debris into Earth is one of the methods to control and minimize the degradation of the space environment. The de-orbiting scenario poses a challenge of providing safety for the Earth population and other space-based assets below the orbit track of the spacecraft being de-orbited. Rigorous risk management is needed to provide the necessary safety margin for de-orbit operations. These challenges were faced during the controlled de-orbit of the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO) into the Pacific Ocean on June 4, 2000. This paper presents a risk management approach utilized at various stages of this mission; processes used to identify credible contingencies; and planned responses to contingencies for use during mission execution.

  11. A risk-based approach to managing active pharmaceutical ingredients in manufacturing effluent.

    PubMed

    Caldwell, Daniel J; Mertens, Birgit; Kappler, Kelly; Senac, Thomas; Journel, Romain; Wilson, Peter; Meyerhoff, Roger D; Parke, Neil J; Mastrocco, Frank; Mattson, Bengt; Murray-Smith, Richard; Dolan, David G; Straub, Jürg Oliver; Wiedemann, Michael; Hartmann, Andreas; Finan, Douglas S

    2016-04-01

    The present study describes guidance intended to assist pharmaceutical manufacturers in assessing, mitigating, and managing the potential environmental impacts of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) in wastewater from manufacturing operations, including those from external suppliers. The tools are not a substitute for compliance with local regulatory requirements but rather are intended to help manufacturers achieve the general standard of "no discharge of APIs in toxic amounts." The approaches detailed in the present study identify practices for assessing potential environmental risks from APIs in manufacturing effluent and outline measures that can be used to reduce the risk, including selective application of available treatment technologies. These measures either are commonly employed within the industry or have been implemented to a more limited extent based on local circumstances. Much of the material is based on company experience and case studies discussed at an industry workshop held on this topic. PMID:26183919

  12. Adherence to the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) and risk of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

    PubMed

    Hekmatdoost, Azita; Shamsipour, Ali; Meibodi, Mohammad; Gheibizadeh, Newsha; Eslamparast, Tannaz; Poustchi, Hossein

    2016-12-01

    This case-control study was conducted to examine the association between adherence to the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet and risk of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) development in 102 patients with newly diagnosed NAFLD and 204 controls. Adherence to DASH-style diet was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire, and a DASH diet score based on food and nutrients emphasized or minimized in the DASH diet. Participants in the top quartile of DASH diet score were 30% less likely to have NAFLD (OR: 0.0.70; 95% CI: 0.61, 0.80); however, more adjustment for dyslipidemia and body mass index changed the association to non-significant (OR: 0.92; 95% CI: 0.73, 1.12). In conclusion, we found an inverse relationship between the DASH-style diet and risk of NAFLD. Prospective studies are needed to confirm this association.

  13. A risk-based approach to managing active pharmaceutical ingredients in manufacturing effluent.

    PubMed

    Caldwell, Daniel J; Mertens, Birgit; Kappler, Kelly; Senac, Thomas; Journel, Romain; Wilson, Peter; Meyerhoff, Roger D; Parke, Neil J; Mastrocco, Frank; Mattson, Bengt; Murray-Smith, Richard; Dolan, David G; Straub, Jürg Oliver; Wiedemann, Michael; Hartmann, Andreas; Finan, Douglas S

    2016-04-01

    The present study describes guidance intended to assist pharmaceutical manufacturers in assessing, mitigating, and managing the potential environmental impacts of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) in wastewater from manufacturing operations, including those from external suppliers. The tools are not a substitute for compliance with local regulatory requirements but rather are intended to help manufacturers achieve the general standard of "no discharge of APIs in toxic amounts." The approaches detailed in the present study identify practices for assessing potential environmental risks from APIs in manufacturing effluent and outline measures that can be used to reduce the risk, including selective application of available treatment technologies. These measures either are commonly employed within the industry or have been implemented to a more limited extent based on local circumstances. Much of the material is based on company experience and case studies discussed at an industry workshop held on this topic.

  14. Constructing a holistic approach to disaster risk reduction: the significance of focusing on vulnerability reduction.

    PubMed

    Palliyaguru, Roshani; Amaratunga, Dilanthi; Baldry, David

    2014-01-01

    As a result of the increase in natural disaster losses, policy-makers, practitioners, and members of the research community around the world are seeking effective and efficient means of overcoming or minimising them. Although various theoretical constructs are beneficial to understanding the disaster phenomenon and the means of minimising losses, the disaster risk management process becomes less effective if theory and practice are set apart from one another. Consequently, this paper seeks to establish a relationship between two theoretical constructs, 'disaster risk reduction (DRR)' and 'vulnerability reduction', and to develop a holistic approach to DRR with particular reference to improving its applicability in practical settings. It is based on a literature review and on an overall understanding gained through two case studies of post-disaster infrastructure reconstruction projects in Sri Lanka and three expert interviews in Sri Lanka and the United Kingdom.

  15. AdS duals of matrix strings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morales, Jose F.; Samtleben, Henning

    2003-06-01

    We review recent work on the holographic duals of type II and heterotic matrix string theories described by warped AdS3 supergravities. In particular, we compute the spectra of Kaluza-Klein primaries for type I, II supergravities on warped AdS3 × S7 and match them with the primary operators in the dual two-dimensional gauge theories. The presence of non-trivial warp factors and dilaton profiles requires a modification of the familiar dictionary between masses and 'scaling' dimensions of fields and operators. We present these modifications for the general case of domain wall/QFT correspondences between supergravities on warped AdSd+1 × Sq geometries and super Yang-Mills theories with 16 supercharges.

  16. A systematic conservation planning approach to fire risk management in Natura 2000 sites.

    PubMed

    Foresta, Massimiliano; Carranza, Maria Laura; Garfì, Vittorio; Di Febbraro, Mirko; Marchetti, Marco; Loy, Anna

    2016-10-01

    A primary challenge in conservation biology is to preserve the most representative biodiversity while simultaneously optimizing the efforts associated with conservation. In Europe, the implementation of the Natura 2000 network requires protocols to recognize and map threats to biodiversity and to identify specific mitigation actions. We propose a systematic conservation planning approach to optimize management actions against specific threats based on two fundamental parameters: biodiversity values and threat pressure. We used the conservation planning software Marxan to optimize a fire management plan in a Natura 2000 coastal network in southern Italy. We address three primary questions: i) Which areas are at high fire risk? ii) Which areas are the most valuable for threatened biodiversity? iii) Which areas should receive priority risk-mitigation actions for the optimal effect?, iv) which fire-prevention actions are feasible in the management areas?. The biodiversity values for the Natura 2000 spatial units were derived from the distribution maps of 18 habitats and 89 vertebrate species of concern in Europe (Habitat Directive 92/43/EEC). The threat pressure map, defined as fire probability, was obtained from digital layers of fire risk and of fire frequency. Marxan settings were defined as follows: a) planning units of 40 × 40 m, b) conservation features defined as all habitats and vertebrate species of European concern occurring in the study area, c) conservation targets defined according with fire sensitivity and extinction risk of conservation features, and d) costs determined as the complement of fire probabilities. We identified 23 management areas in which to concentrate efforts for the optimal reduction of fire-induced effects. Because traditional fire prevention is not feasible for most of policy habitats included in the management areas, alternative prevention practices were identified that allows the conservation of the vegetation structure. The

  17. A systematic conservation planning approach to fire risk management in Natura 2000 sites.

    PubMed

    Foresta, Massimiliano; Carranza, Maria Laura; Garfì, Vittorio; Di Febbraro, Mirko; Marchetti, Marco; Loy, Anna

    2016-10-01

    A primary challenge in conservation biology is to preserve the most representative biodiversity while simultaneously optimizing the efforts associated with conservation. In Europe, the implementation of the Natura 2000 network requires protocols to recognize and map threats to biodiversity and to identify specific mitigation actions. We propose a systematic conservation planning approach to optimize management actions against specific threats based on two fundamental parameters: biodiversity values and threat pressure. We used the conservation planning software Marxan to optimize a fire management plan in a Natura 2000 coastal network in southern Italy. We address three primary questions: i) Which areas are at high fire risk? ii) Which areas are the most valuable for threatened biodiversity? iii) Which areas should receive priority risk-mitigation actions for the optimal effect?, iv) which fire-prevention actions are feasible in the management areas?. The biodiversity values for the Natura 2000 spatial units were derived from the distribution maps of 18 habitats and 89 vertebrate species of concern in Europe (Habitat Directive 92/43/EEC). The threat pressure map, defined as fire probability, was obtained from digital layers of fire risk and of fire frequency. Marxan settings were defined as follows: a) planning units of 40 × 40 m, b) conservation features defined as all habitats and vertebrate species of European concern occurring in the study area, c) conservation targets defined according with fire sensitivity and extinction risk of conservation features, and d) costs determined as the complement of fire probabilities. We identified 23 management areas in which to concentrate efforts for the optimal reduction of fire-induced effects. Because traditional fire prevention is not feasible for most of policy habitats included in the management areas, alternative prevention practices were identified that allows the conservation of the vegetation structure. The

  18. Methodological Approaches to Evaluate Teratogenic Risk Using Birth Defect Registries: Advantages and Disadvantages

    PubMed Central

    Poletta, Fernando A.; López Camelo, Jorge S.; Gili, Juan A.; Leoncini, Emmanuele; Castilla, Eduardo E.; Mastroiacovo, Pierpaolo

    2012-01-01

    Background Different approaches have been used in case-control studies to estimate maternal exposure to medications and the risk of birth defects. However, the performance of these approaches and how they affect the odds ratio (OR) estimates have not been evaluated using birth-defect surveillance programmes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the scope and limitations of three case-control approaches to assess the teratogenic risk of birth defects in mothers exposed to antiepileptic medications, insulin, or acetaminophen. Methodology/Principal Findings We studied 110,814 non-malformed newborns and 58,514 live newborns with birth defects registered by the Latin American Collaborative Study of Congenital Anomalies (ECLAMC) between 1967 and 2008. Four controls were randomly selected for each case in the same hospital and period, and three different control groups were used: non-malformed newborns (HEALTHY), malformed newborns (SICK), and a subgroup of SICK, only-exposed cases (OECA). Associations were evaluated using OR and Pearson's chi-square (P<0.01). There were no concordance correlations between the HEALTHY and OECA designs, and the average OR differences ranged from 3.0 to 11.5 for the three evaluated medicines. The overestimations observed for HEALTHY design were increased as higher OR values were given, with a high and statistically significant correlation between the difference and the mean. On the contrary, the concordance correlations obtained between the SICK and OECA designs were quite good, with no significant differences in the average risks. Conclusions The HEALTHY design estimates the true population OR, but shows a high rate of false-positive results presumably caused by differential misclassification bias. This bias decreases with the increase of the proportion of exposed controls. SICK and OECA odds ratios cannot be considered a direct estimate of the true population OR except under certain conditions. However, the SICK and OECA designs could

  19. Application of elements of microbiological risk assessment in the food industry via a tiered approach.

    PubMed

    van Gerwen, Suzanne J C; Gorris, Leon G M

    2004-09-01

    Food safety control is a matter for concern for all parts of the food supply chain, including governments that develop food safety policy, food industries that must control potential hazards, and consumers who need to keep to the intended use of the food. In the future, food safety policy may be set using the framework of risk analysis, part of which is the development of (inter)national microbiological risk assessment (MRA) studies. MRA studies increase our understanding of the impact of risk management interventions and of the relationships among subsequent parts of food supply chains with regard to the safety of the food when it reaches the consumer. Application of aspects of MRA in the development of new food concepts has potential benefits for the food industry. A tiered approach to applying MRA can best realize these benefits. The tiered MRA approach involves calculation of microbial fate for a product and process design on the basis of experimental data (e.g., monitoring data on prevalence) and predictive microbiological models. Calculations on new product formulations and novel processing technologies provide improved understanding of microbial fate beyond currently known boundaries, which enables identification of new opportunities in process design. The outcome of the tiered approach focuses on developing benchmarks of potential consumer exposure to hazards associated with new products by comparison with exposure associated with products that are already on the market and have a safe history of use. The tiered prototype is a tool to be used by experienced microbiologists as a basis for advice to product developers and can help to make safety assurance for new food concepts transparent to food inspection services. PMID:15453599

  20. Application of elements of microbiological risk assessment in the food industry via a tiered approach.

    PubMed

    van Gerwen, Suzanne J C; Gorris, Leon G M

    2004-09-01

    Food safety control is a matter for concern for all parts of the food supply chain, including governments that develop food safety policy, food industries that must control potential hazards, and consumers who need to keep to the intended use of the food. In the future, food safety policy may be set using the framework of risk analysis, part of which is the development of (inter)national microbiological risk assessment (MRA) studies. MRA studies increase our understanding of the impact of risk management interventions and of the relationships among subsequent parts of food supply chains with regard to the safety of the food when it reaches the consumer. Application of aspects of MRA in the development of new food concepts has potential benefits for the food industry. A tiered approach to applying MRA can best realize these benefits. The tiered MRA approach involves calculation of microbial fate for a product and process design on the basis of experimental data (e.g., monitoring data on prevalence) and predictive microbiological models. Calculations on new product formulations and novel processing technologies provide improved understanding of microbial fate beyond currently known boundaries, which enables identification of new opportunities in process design. The outcome of the tiered approach focuses on developing benchmarks of potential consumer exposure to hazards associated with new products by comparison with exposure associated with products that are already on the market and have a safe history of use. The tiered prototype is a tool to be used by experienced microbiologists as a basis for advice to product developers and can help to make safety assurance for new food concepts transparent to food inspection services.

  1. [Uncertainty characterization approaches for ecological risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon in Taihu Lake].

    PubMed

    Guo, Guang-Hui; Wu, Feng-Chang; He, Hong-Ping; Feng, Cheng-Lian; Zhang, Rui-Qing; Li, Hui-Xian

    2012-04-01

    Probabilistic approaches, such as Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), and non-probabilistic approaches, such as interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and variance propagation, were used to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake. The results from MCS and LHS were represented by probability distributions of hazard quotients of sigma PAH8 in surface waters of Taihu Lake. The probabilistic distribution of hazard quotient were obtained from the results of MCS and LHS based on probabilistic theory, which indicated that the confidence intervals of hazard quotient at 90% confidence level were in the range of 0.000 18-0.89 and 0.000 17-0.92, with the mean of 0.37 and 0.35, respectively. In addition, the probabilities that the hazard quotients from MCS and LHS exceed the threshold of 1 were 9.71% and 9.68%, respectively. The sensitivity analysis suggested the toxicity data contributed the most to the resulting distribution of quotients. The hazard quotient of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms ranged from 0.000 17 to 0.99 using interval analysis. The confidence interval was (0.001 5, 0.016 3) at the 90% confidence level calculated using fuzzy set theory, and the confidence interval was (0.000 16, 0.88) at the 90% confidence level based on the variance propagation. These results indicated that the ecological risk of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms were low. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations, which was based on different theory; therefore, the appropriate method should be selected on a case-by-case to quantify the effects of uncertainties on the ecological risk assessment. Approach based on the probabilistic theory was selected as the most appropriate method to assess the risk of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake, which provided an important scientific foundation of risk management and control for organic pollutants in water. PMID:22720551

  2. On Value at Risk for Foreign Exchange Rates --- the Copula Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaworski, P.

    2006-11-01

    The aim of this paper is to determine the Value at Risk (VaR) of the portfolio consisting of long positions in foreign currencies on an emerging market. Basing on empirical data we restrict ourselves to the case when the tail parts of distributions of logarithmic returns of these assets follow the power laws and the lower tail of associated copula C follows the power law of degree 1. We will illustrate the practical usefulness of this approach by the analysis of the exchange rates of EUR and CHF at the Polish forex market.

  3. Application impact analysis: a risk-based approach to business continuity and disaster recovery.

    PubMed

    Epstein, Beth; Khan, Dawn Christine

    2014-01-01

    There are many possible disruptions that can occur in business. Overlooking or under planning for Business Continuity requires time, understanding and careful planning. Business Continuity Management is far more than producing a document and declaring business continuity success. What is the recipe for businesses to achieve continuity management success? Application Impact Analysis is a method for understanding the unique Business Attributes. This AIA Cycle involves a risk based approach to understanding the business priority and considering business aspects such as Financial, Operational, Service Structure, Contractual Legal, and Brand. The output of this analysis provides a construct for viewing data, evaluating impact, and delivering results, for an approved valuation of Recovery Time Objectives (RTO).

  4. TERRORIST PROTECTION PLANNING USING A RELATIVE RISK REDUCTION APPROACH, SESSION VIII: TECHNOLOGY FORUM FOCUS GROUPS.

    SciTech Connect

    INDUSI,J.P.

    2003-06-16

    Since the events of 9/11, there have been considerable concerns and associated efforts to prevent or respond to acts of terrorism. Very often we hear calls to reduce the threat from or correct vulnerabilities to various terrorist acts. Others fall victim to anxiety over potential scenarios with the gravest of consequences involving hundreds of thousands of casualties. The problem is complicated by the fact that planners have limited, albeit in some cases significant, resources and less than perfect intelligence on potential terrorist plans. However, valuable resources must be used prudently to reduce the overall risk to the nation. A systematic approach to this process of asset allocation is to reduce the overall risk and not just an individual element of risk such as vulnerabilities. Hence, we define risk as a function of three variables: the threat (the likelihood and scenario of the terrorist act), the vulnerability (the vulnerability of potential targets to the threat), and the consequences (health and safety, economic, etc.) resulting from a successful terrorist scenario. Both the vulnerability and consequences from a postulated adversary scenario can be reasonably well estimated. However, the threat likelihood and scenarios are much more difficult to estimate. A possible path forward is to develop scenarios for each potential target in question using experts from many disciplines. This should yield a finite but large number of target-scenario pairs. The vulnerabilities and consequences for each are estimated and then ranked relative to one another. The resulting relative risk ranking will have targets near the top of the ranking for which the threat is estimated to be more likely, the vulnerability greatest, and the consequences the most grave. In the absence of perfect intelligence, this may be the best we can do.

  5. Approaches to Quality Risk Management When Using Single-Use Systems in the Manufacture of Biologics.

    PubMed

    Ishii-Watabe, Akiko; Hirose, Akihiko; Katori, Noriko; Hashii, Norikata; Arai, Susumu; Awatsu, Hirotoshi; Eiza, Akira; Hara, Yoshiaki; Hattori, Hideshi; Inoue, Tomomi; Isono, Tetsuya; Iwakura, Masahiro; Kajihara, Daisuke; Kasahara, Nobuo; Matsuda, Hiroyuki; Murakami, Sei; Nakagawa, Taishiro; Okumura, Takehiro; Omasa, Takeshi; Takuma, Shinya; Terashima, Iyo; Tsukahara, Masayoshi; Tsutsui, Maiko; Yano, Takahiro; Kawasaki, Nana

    2015-10-01

    Biologics manufacturing technology has made great progress in the last decade. One of the most promising new technologies is the single-use system, which has improved the efficiency of biologics manufacturing processes. To ensure safety of biologics when employing such single-use systems in the manufacturing process, various issues need to be considered including possible extractables/leachables and particles arising from the components used in single-use systems. Japanese pharmaceutical manufacturers, together with single-use suppliers, members of the academia and regulatory authorities have discussed the risks of using single-use systems and established control strategies for the quality assurance of biologics. In this study, we describe approaches for quality risk management when employing single-use systems in the manufacturing of biologics. We consider the potential impact of impurities related to single-use components on drug safety and the potential impact of the single-use system on other critical quality attributes as well as the stable supply of biologics. We also suggest a risk-mitigating strategy combining multiple control methods which includes the selection of appropriate single-use components, their inspections upon receipt and before releasing for use and qualification of single-use systems. Communication between suppliers of single-use systems and the users, as well as change controls in the facilities both of suppliers and users, are also important in risk-mitigating strategies. Implementing these control strategies can mitigate the risks attributed to the use of single-use systems. This study will be useful in promoting the development of biologics as well as in ensuring their safety, quality and stable supply.

  6. Approaches to Quality Risk Management When Using Single-Use Systems in the Manufacture of Biologics.

    PubMed

    Ishii-Watabe, Akiko; Hirose, Akihiko; Katori, Noriko; Hashii, Norikata; Arai, Susumu; Awatsu, Hirotoshi; Eiza, Akira; Hara, Yoshiaki; Hattori, Hideshi; Inoue, Tomomi; Isono, Tetsuya; Iwakura, Masahiro; Kajihara, Daisuke; Kasahara, Nobuo; Matsuda, Hiroyuki; Murakami, Sei; Nakagawa, Taishiro; Okumura, Takehiro; Omasa, Takeshi; Takuma, Shinya; Terashima, Iyo; Tsukahara, Masayoshi; Tsutsui, Maiko; Yano, Takahiro; Kawasaki, Nana

    2015-10-01

    Biologics manufacturing technology has made great progress in the last decade. One of the most promising new technologies is the single-use system, which has improved the efficiency of biologics manufacturing processes. To ensure safety of biologics when employing such single-use systems in the manufacturing process, various issues need to be considered including possible extractables/leachables and particles arising from the components used in single-use systems. Japanese pharmaceutical manufacturers, together with single-use suppliers, members of the academia and regulatory authorities have discussed the risks of using single-use systems and established control strategies for the quality assurance of biologics. In this study, we describe approaches for quality risk management when employing single-use systems in the manufacturing of biologics. We consider the potential impact of impurities related to single-use components on drug safety and the potential impact of the single-use system on other critical quality attributes as well as the stable supply of biologics. We also suggest a risk-mitigating strategy combining multiple control methods which includes the selection of appropriate single-use components, their inspections upon receipt and before releasing for use and qualification of single-use systems. Communication between suppliers of single-use systems and the users, as well as change controls in the facilities both of suppliers and users, are also important in risk-mitigating strategies. Implementing these control strategies can mitigate the risks attributed to the use of single-use systems. This study will be useful in promoting the development of biologics as well as in ensuring their safety, quality and stable supply. PMID:26288941

  7. Dependence and risk assessment for oil prices and exchange rate portfolios: A wavelet based approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania

    2015-10-01

    In this article, we propose a wavelet-based approach to accommodate the stylized facts and complex structure of financial data, caused by frequent and abrupt changes of markets and noises. Specifically, we show how the combination of both continuous and discrete wavelet transforms with traditional financial models helps improve portfolio's market risk assessment. In the empirical stage, three wavelet-based models (wavelet-EGARCH with dynamic conditional correlations, wavelet-copula, and wavelet-extreme value) are considered and applied to crude oil price and US dollar exchange rate data. Our findings show that the wavelet-based approach provides an effective and powerful tool for detecting extreme moments and improving the accuracy of VaR and Expected Shortfall estimates of oil-exchange rate portfolios after noise is removed from the original data.

  8. An innovative approach to treating combat veterans with PTSD at risk for suicide.

    PubMed

    Hendin, Herbert

    2014-10-01

    Suicide rates among military personnel had a significant drop in 2013, but there is no evidence of a drop among veterans. The problem of suicide among combat veterans with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) remains a source of concern. The Department of Defense and the Department of Veterans Affairs are now calling for innovative treatment approaches to the problem. A short-term psychodynamic therapy presented here may be able to fill that need by dissipating the guilt from veterans' combat-related actions that leads to suicidal behavior. The treatment showed promise of success with veterans of the war in Vietnam. Preliminary work with combat veterans of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan indicates that it may be equally successful in treating them. Basic aspects of the psychodynamic approach could be incorporated into current therapies and should improve their ability to treat veterans with PTSD at risk for suicide. PMID:25306917

  9. [Application of risk-based approach for determination of critical factors in technology transfer of production of medicinal products].

    PubMed

    Beregovykh, V V; Spitskiy, O R

    2014-01-01

    Risk-based approach is used for examination of impact of different factors on quality of medicinal products in technology transfer. A general diagram is offered for risk analysis execution in technology transfer from pharmaceutical development to production. When transferring technology to full- scale commercial production it is necessary to investigate and simulate production process application beforehand in new real conditions. The manufacturing process is the core factorfor risk analysis having the most impact on quality attributes of a medicinal product. Further importantfactors are linked to materials and products to be handled and manufacturing environmental conditions such as premises, equipment and personnel. Usage of risk-based approach in designing of multipurpose production facility of medicinal products is shown where quantitative risk analysis tool RAMM (Risk Analysis and Mitigation Matrix) was applied.

  10. Out-of-School Care and Problem Behavior Trajectories Among Low-Income Adolescents: Individual, Family, and Neighborhood Characteristics as Added Risks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coley, Rebekah Levine; Morris, Jodi Eileen; Hernandez, Daphne

    2004-01-01

    Using a developmental systems approach, this study considered longitudinal links between adolescents' out-of-school care experiences and behavioral trajectories within a random sample of 819 adolescents ages 10 to 14 years at Wave 1 from low-income, urban families. Multiple aspects of context were considered, including the location, supervision,…

  11. [Usability first. Model-based approach for the use-oriented risk analysis of medical devices].

    PubMed

    Janß, A; Radermacher, K

    2014-12-01

    Due to increasing automation, the number and complexity of technical components have increased in the medical context (e.g., in the clinic or in the home care sector) in recent years. Besides new effective and efficient therapeutic and diagnostic options, these devices entail a wide range of functions and very complex (often computer-based) user interfaces that may lead to human-induced risk potential. A systematic and early human risk analysis and a usability evaluation allow medical device manufacturers to identify and control risks within the human-machine interaction very efficiently. At the Department of Medical Engineering in the Helmholtz Institute for Biomedical Engineering at the RWTH Aachen University, a formal-analytical methodology and a corresponding software tool for prospective human-risk analysis and model-based usability evaluation has been developed. Based on a twofold approach, user interactive process sequences and their potential impacts on the overall process are identified and the resulting use-related risks are assessed. For this, the tasks are categorized (in system and user tasks) and modeled and temporally related within the framework of a high-level task analysis. Within a subsequent cognitive low-level task analysis, potentially critical parallel process sequences are then tested in order to detect a potential resource overload of the user. The subsequent corresponding human-risk analysis is developed according to a knowledge base (checklist) of taxonomies related to human error. The HiFEM (human-function effect modeling) methodology is universally applicable and can be used for the evaluation of human-computer interfaces as well as for the analysis of purely mechanical control interfaces and simple hand-held instruments (such as a scalpel and implant). In a comparative study, the HiFEM method clearly outperforms the classic FMEA (failure modes and effects analysis) process with regard to effectiveness, efficiency, learnability, and

  12. [Usability first. Model-based approach for the use-oriented risk analysis of medical devices].

    PubMed

    Janß, A; Radermacher, K

    2014-12-01

    Due to increasing automation, the number and complexity of technical components have increased in the medical context (e.g., in the clinic or in the home care sector) in recent years. Besides new effective and efficient therapeutic and diagnostic options, these devices entail a wide range of functions and very complex (often computer-based) user interfaces that may lead to human-induced risk potential. A systematic and early human risk analysis and a usability evaluation allow medical device manufacturers to identify and control risks within the human-machine interaction very efficiently. At the Department of Medical Engineering in the Helmholtz Institute for Biomedical Engineering at the RWTH Aachen University, a formal-analytical methodology and a corresponding software tool for prospective human-risk analysis and model-based usability evaluation has been developed. Based on a twofold approach, user interactive process sequences and their potential impacts on the overall process are identified and the resulting use-related risks are assessed. For this, the tasks are categorized (in system and user tasks) and modeled and temporally related within the framework of a high-level task analysis. Within a subsequent cognitive low-level task analysis, potentially critical parallel process sequences are then tested in order to detect a potential resource overload of the user. The subsequent corresponding human-risk analysis is developed according to a knowledge base (checklist) of taxonomies related to human error. The HiFEM (human-function effect modeling) methodology is universally applicable and can be used for the evaluation of human-computer interfaces as well as for the analysis of purely mechanical control interfaces and simple hand-held instruments (such as a scalpel and implant). In a comparative study, the HiFEM method clearly outperforms the classic FMEA (failure modes and effects analysis) process with regard to effectiveness, efficiency, learnability, and

  13. Promoting Service User Inclusion in Risk Assessment and Management: A Pilot Project Developing a Human Rights-Based Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greenhill, Beth; Whitehead, Richard

    2011-01-01

    Recent reports highlight the extent to which many people with learning disabilities are not afforded access to their basic human rights. In addition, traditional approaches to risk management often focus on professional assessments of risks and challenging behaviour and exclude service user perspectives. In this paper, we outline what we believe…

  14. Introducing a Transdisciplinary Approach in Studies regarding Risk Assessment and Management in Educational Programs for Environmental Engineers and Planners

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Menoni, Scira

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to discuss how long term risk prevention and civil protection may enter in university programs for environmental engineers and urban and regional planners. Design/methodology/approach: First the distinction between long term risk prevention and emergency preparedness is made, showing that while the first has…

  15. [ANALYSIS OF THE METHODIC APPROACHES TO THE OCCUPATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT AT THE ENTERPRISES OF THE SVERDLOVSK REGION].

    PubMed

    Gurvich, V B; Kuz'min, S V; Plotko, E G; Roslyĭ, O F; Fedoruk, A A; Ruzakov, V O

    2015-01-01

    This study is devoted to the practice of the application of the current legislative regulatory and procedural base for the occupational health and safety issues. The issues of the occupational risks assessment at the enterprises of the Sverdlovsk region are discussed Approaches to the creation of the occupational risk management and assessment systems are proposed.

  16. Reconstruction of flood events based on documentary data and transnational flood risk analysis of the Upper Rhine and its French and German tributaries since AD 1480

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Himmelsbach, I.; Glaser, R.; Schoenbein, J.; Riemann, D.; Martin, B.

    2015-10-01

    This paper presents the long-term analysis of flood occurrence along the southern part of the Upper Rhine River system and of 14 of its tributaries in France and Germany covering the period starting from 1480 BC. Special focus is given on the temporal and spatial variations of flood events and their underlying meteorological causes over time. Examples are presented of how long-term information about flood events and knowledge about the historical aspect of flood protection in a given area can help to improve the understanding of risk analysis and therefor transnational risk management. Within this context, special focus is given to flood vulnerability while comparing selected historical and modern extreme events, establishing a common evaluation scheme. The transnational aspect becomes especially evident analyzing the tributaries: on this scale, flood protection developed impressively different on the French and German sides. We argue that comparing high technological standards of flood protection, which were initiated by the dukes of Baden on the German side starting in the early 19th century, misled people to the common belief that the mechanical means of flood protection like dams and barrages can guarantee the security from floods and their impacts. This lead to widespread settlements and the establishment of infrastructure as well as modern industries in potentially unsafe areas until today. The legal status in Alsace on the French side of the Rhine did not allow for continuous flood protection measurements, leading to a constant - and probably at last annoying - reminder that the floodplains are a potentially unsafe place to be. From a modern perspective of flood risk management, this leads to a significant lower aggregation of value in the floodplains of the small rivers in Alsace compared to those on the Baden side - an interesting fact - especially if the modern European Flood directive is taken into account.

  17. Effect of Adding McKenzie Syndrome, Centralization, Directional Preference, and Psychosocial Classification Variables to a Risk-Adjusted Model Predicting Functional Status Outcomes for Patients With Lumbar Impairments.

    PubMed

    Werneke, Mark W; Edmond, Susan; Deutscher, Daniel; Ward, Jason; Grigsby, David; Young, Michelle; McGill, Troy; McClenahan, Brian; Weinberg, Jon; Davidow, Amy L

    2016-09-01

    Study Design Retrospective cohort. Background Patient-classification subgroupings may be important prognostic factors explaining outcomes. Objectives To determine effects of adding classification variables (McKenzie syndrome and pain patterns, including centralization and directional preference; Symptom Checklist Back Pain Prediction Model [SCL BPPM]; and the Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire subscales of work and physical activity) to a baseline risk-adjusted model predicting functional status (FS) outcomes. Methods Consecutive patients completed a battery of questionnaires that gathered information on 11 risk-adjustment variables. Physical therapists trained in Mechanical Diagnosis and Therapy methods classified each patient by McKenzie syndromes and pain pattern. Functional status was assessed at discharge by patient-reported outcomes. Only patients with complete data were included. Risk of selection bias was assessed. Prediction of discharge FS was assessed using linear stepwise regression models, allowing 13 variables to enter the model. Significant variables were retained in subsequent models. Model power (R(2)) and beta coefficients for model variables were estimated. Results Two thousand sixty-six patients with lumbar impairments were evaluated. Of those, 994 (48%), 10 (<1%), and 601 (29%) were excluded due to incomplete psychosocial data, McKenzie classification data, and missing FS at discharge, respectively. The final sample for analyses was 723 (35%). Overall R(2) for the baseline prediction FS model was 0.40. Adding classification variables to the baseline model did not result in significant increases in R(2). McKenzie syndrome or pain pattern explained 2.8% and 3.0% of the variance, respectively. When pain pattern and SCL BPPM were added simultaneously, overall model R(2) increased to 0.44. Although none of these increases in R(2) were significant, some classification variables were stronger predictors compared with some other variables included in

  18. Effect of Adding McKenzie Syndrome, Centralization, Directional Preference, and Psychosocial Classification Variables to a Risk-Adjusted Model Predicting Functional Status Outcomes for Patients With Lumbar Impairments.

    PubMed

    Werneke, Mark W; Edmond, Susan; Deutscher, Daniel; Ward, Jason; Grigsby, David; Young, Michelle; McGill, Troy; McClenahan, Brian; Weinberg, Jon; Davidow, Amy L

    2016-09-01

    Study Design Retrospective cohort. Background Patient-classification subgroupings may be important prognostic factors explaining outcomes. Objectives To determine effects of adding classification variables (McKenzie syndrome and pain patterns, including centralization and directional preference; Symptom Checklist Back Pain Prediction Model [SCL BPPM]; and the Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire subscales of work and physical activity) to a baseline risk-adjusted model predicting functional status (FS) outcomes. Methods Consecutive patients completed a battery of questionnaires that gathered information on 11 risk-adjustment variables. Physical therapists trained in Mechanical Diagnosis and Therapy methods classified each patient by McKenzie syndromes and pain pattern. Functional status was assessed at discharge by patient-reported outcomes. Only patients with complete data were included. Risk of selection bias was assessed. Prediction of discharge FS was assessed using linear stepwise regression models, allowing 13 variables to enter the model. Significant variables were retained in subsequent models. Model power (R(2)) and beta coefficients for model variables were estimated. Results Two thousand sixty-six patients with lumbar impairments were evaluated. Of those, 994 (48%), 10 (<1%), and 601 (29%) were excluded due to incomplete psychosocial data, McKenzie classification data, and missing FS at discharge, respectively. The final sample for analyses was 723 (35%). Overall R(2) for the baseline prediction FS model was 0.40. Adding classification variables to the baseline model did not result in significant increases in R(2). McKenzie syndrome or pain pattern explained 2.8% and 3.0% of the variance, respectively. When pain pattern and SCL BPPM were added simultaneously, overall model R(2) increased to 0.44. Although none of these increases in R(2) were significant, some classification variables were stronger predictors compared with some other variables included in

  19. Efficacy and safety of ezetimibe added on to atorvastatin (20 mg) versus uptitration of atorvastatin (to 40 mg) in hypercholesterolemic patients at moderately high risk for coronary heart disease.

    PubMed

    Conard, Scott E; Bays, Harold E; Leiter, Lawrence A; Bird, Steven R; Rubino, Joseph; Lowe, Robert S; Tomassini, Joanne E; Tershakovec, Andrew M

    2008-12-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of ezetimibe 10 mg added to atorvastatin 20 mg compared with doubling atorvastatin to 40 mg in patients with hypercholesterolemia at moderately high risk for coronary heart disease who did not reach low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels <100 mg/dl with atorvastatin 20 mg. In this 6-week, multicenter, double-blind, randomized, parallel-group study, 196 patients treated with atorvastatin 20 mg received atorvastatin 20 mg plus ezetimibe 10 mg or atorvastatin 40 mg for 6 weeks. Adding ezetimibe 10 mg to atorvastatin 20 mg produced significantly greater reductions in LDL cholesterol than increasing atorvastatin to 40 mg (-31% vs -11%, p <0.001). Significantly greater reductions were also seen in non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, total cholesterol, and apolipoprotein B (p <0.001). Significantly more patients reached LDL cholesterol levels <100 mg/dl with atorvastatin 20 mg plus ezetimibe compared with atorvastatin 40 mg (84% vs 49%, p <0.001). The 2 treatment groups had comparable results for high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, apolipoprotein A-I, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. The incidences of clinical and laboratory adverse experiences were generally similar between groups. In conclusion, the addition of ezetimibe 10 mg to atorvastatin 20 mg was generally well tolerated and resulted in significantly greater lipid-lowering efficacy compared with doubling atorvastatin to 40 mg in patients with hypercholesterolemia at moderately high risk for coronary heart disease.

  20. A new approach to measuring partnership concurrency and its association with HIV risk in couples.

    PubMed

    Helleringer, Stéphane; Mkandawire, James; Kohler, Hans-Peter

    2014-12-01

    Empirical estimates of the association between concurrent partnerships (CP) and HIV risk are affected by non-sampling errors in survey data on CPs, e.g., because respondents misreport the extent of their CPs. We propose a new approach to measuring CPs in couples, which permits assessing how respondent errors affect estimates of the association between CPs and HIV risk. Each couple member is asked (1) to report whether s/he has engaged in CPs and (2) to assess whether his/her partner has engaged in CPs, since their couple started. Cross-tabulating these data yields multiple classifications (with varying combinations of sensitivity/specificity) of the CPs of each couple member. We then measure the association between CPs and HIV outcomes according to each classification. The resulting range of estimates is an indicator of the uncertainty associated with respondent errors. We tested this approach using data on 520 matched couples drawn from the Likoma Network Study. Results suggest that existing tests of the concurrency hypothesis are affected by significant uncertainty.

  1. A New Approach to Measuring Partnership Concurrency and its Association with HIV Risk in Couples

    PubMed Central

    Mkandawire, James; Kohler, Hans-Peter

    2015-01-01

    Empirical estimates of the association between concurrent partnerships (CP) and HIV risk are affected by non-sampling errors in survey data on CPs, e.g., because respondents misreport the extent of their CPs. We propose a new approach to measuring CPs in couples, which permits assessing how respondent errors affect estimates of the association between CPs and HIV risk. Each couple member is asked (1) to report whether s/he has engaged in CPs and (2) to assess whether his/her partner has engaged in CPs, since their couple started. Cross-tabulating these data yields multiple classifications (with varying combinations of sensitivity/specificity) of the CPs of each couple member. We then measure the association between CPs and HIV outcomes according to each classification. The resulting range of estimates is an indicator of the uncertainty associated with respondent errors. We tested this approach using data on 520 matched couples drawn from the Likoma Network Study. Results suggest that existing tests of the concurrency hypothesis are affected by significant uncertainty. PMID:24817498

  2. Quantitative risk-based approach for improving water quality management in mining.

    PubMed

    Liu, Wenying; Moran, Chris J; Vink, Sue

    2011-09-01

    The potential environmental threats posed by freshwater withdrawal and mine water discharge are some of the main drivers for the mining industry to improve water management. The use of multiple sources of water supply and introducing water reuse into the mine site water system have been part of the operating philosophies employed by the mining industry to realize these improvements. However, a barrier to implementation of such good water management practices is concomitant water quality variation and the resulting impacts on the efficiency of mineral separation processes, and an increased environmental consequence of noncompliant discharge events. There is an increasing appreciation that conservative water management practices, production efficiency, and environmental consequences are intimately linked through the site water system. It is therefore essential to consider water management decisions and their impacts as an integrated system as opposed to dealing with each impact separately. This paper proposes an approach that could assist mine sites to manage water quality issues in a systematic manner at the system level. This approach can quantitatively forecast the risk related with water quality and evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies in mitigating the risk by quantifying implications for production and hence economic viability. PMID:21797262

  3. Quantitative risk-based approach for improving water quality management in mining.

    PubMed

    Liu, Wenying; Moran, Chris J; Vink, Sue

    2011-09-01

    The potential environmental threats posed by freshwater withdrawal and mine water discharge are some of the main drivers for the mining industry to improve water management. The use of multiple sources of water supply and introducing water reuse into the mine site water system have been part of the operating philosophies employed by the mining industry to realize these improvements. However, a barrier to implementation of such good water management practices is concomitant water quality variation and the resulting impacts on the efficiency of mineral separation processes, and an increased environmental consequence of noncompliant discharge events. There is an increasing appreciation that conservative water management practices, production efficiency, and environmental consequences are intimately linked through the site water system. It is therefore essential to consider water management decisions and their impacts as an integrated system as opposed to dealing with each impact separately. This paper proposes an approach that could assist mine sites to manage water quality issues in a systematic manner at the system level. This approach can quantitatively forecast the risk related with water quality and evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies in mitigating the risk by quantifying implications for production and hence economic viability.

  4. Anterior Approach Total Ankle Arthroplasty: Superficial Peroneal Nerve Branches at Risk.

    PubMed

    McAlister, Jeffrey E; DeMill, Shyler L; Hyer, Christopher F; Berlet, Gregory C

    2016-01-01

    In ankle arthroplasty, little attention has been given to intraoperative nerve injury and its postoperative sequelae. The aim of the present anatomic study was to determine the relationship of the superficial peroneal nerve to the standard anterior approach for total ankle arthroplasty. The superficial peroneal nerve was dissected in 10 below-the-knee cadaver specimens. The medial and intermediate dorsal cutaneous branches were identified. A needle was placed at the ankle joint. The following measurements were recorded: bifurcation into the medial and intermediate dorsal cutaneous branches, reference needle to the branches of the medial and intermediate superficial peroneal nerve, and the crossing branches of the medial dorsal cutaneous nerve. Two specimens (20%) had a medial dorsal cutaneous branch cross from medially to laterally. Eight specimens (80%) had a crossing branch of the medial dorsal cutaneous branch within 5 cm of the incision. No intermediate dorsal cutaneous branches were within the incision. The results from the present cadaver study suggest that during an anterior ankle approach, aberrant branches of the superficial peroneal nerve could require transection in 20% of patients at the joint level and ≤80% of patients with distal extension >35 mm from the ankle joint. The risk of injury to branches of the superficial peroneal nerve is substantial. The risk of nerve injury can be decreased with meticulous operative technique, smaller incisions, and the avoidance of aggressive retraction.

  5. A risk-mitigation approach to the management of induced seismicity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bommer, Julian J.; Crowley, Helen; Pinho, Rui

    2015-04-01

    Earthquakes may be induced by a wide range of anthropogenic activities such as mining, fluid injection and extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. In recent years, the increased occurrence of induced seismicity and the impact of some of these earthquakes on the built environment have heightened both public concern and regulatory scrutiny, motivating the need for a framework for the management of induced seismicity. Efforts to develop systems to enable control of seismicity have not yet resulted in solutions that can be applied with confidence in most cases. The more rational approach proposed herein is based on applying the same risk quantification and mitigation measures that are applied to the hazard from natural seismicity. This framework allows informed decision-making regarding the conduct of anthropogenic activities that may cause earthquakes. The consequent risk, if related to non-structural damage (when re-location is not an option), can be addressed by appropriate financial compensation. If the risk poses a threat to life and limb, then it may be reduced through the application of strengthening measures in the built environment—the cost of which can be balanced against the economic benefits of the activity in question—rather than attempting to ensure that some threshold on earthquake magnitude or ground-shaking amplitude is not exceeded. However, because of the specific characteristics of induced earthquakes—which may occur in regions with little or no natural seismicity—the procedures used in standard earthquake engineering need adaptation and modification for application to induced seismicity.

  6. Evaluation of HDL-modulating interventions for cardiovascular risk reduction using a systems pharmacology approach.

    PubMed

    Gadkar, Kapil; Lu, James; Sahasranaman, Srikumar; Davis, John; Mazer, Norman A; Ramanujan, Saroja

    2016-01-01

    The recent failures of cholesteryl ester transport protein inhibitor drugs to decrease CVD risk, despite raising HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) levels, suggest that pharmacologic increases in HDL-C may not always reflect elevations in reverse cholesterol transport (RCT), the process by which HDL is believed to exert its beneficial effects. HDL-modulating therapies can affect HDL properties beyond total HDL-C, including particle numbers, size, and composition, and may contribute differently to RCT and CVD risk. The lack of validated easily measurable pharmacodynamic markers to link drug effects to RCT, and ultimately to CVD risk, complicates target and compound selection and evaluation. In this work, we use a systems pharmacology model to contextualize the roles of different HDL targets in cholesterol metabolism and provide quantitative links between HDL-related measurements and the associated changes in RCT rate to support target and compound evaluation in drug development. By quantifying the amount of cholesterol removed from the periphery over the short-term, our simulations show the potential for infused HDL to treat acute CVD. For the primary prevention of CVD, our analysis suggests that the induction of ApoA-I synthesis may be a more viable approach, due to the long-term increase in RCT rate.

  7. Biomechanical approaches to identify and quantify injury mechanisms and risk factors in women's artistic gymnastics.

    PubMed

    Bradshaw, Elizabeth J; Hume, Patria A

    2012-09-01

    Targeted injury prevention strategies, based on biomechanical analyses, have the potential to help reduce the incidence and severity of gymnastics injuries. This review outlines the potential benefits of biomechanics research to contribute to injury prevention strategies for women's artistic gymnastics by identification of mechanisms of injury and quantification of the effects of injury risk factors. One hundred and twenty-three articles were retained for review after searching electronic databases using key words, including 'gymnastic', 'biomech*', and 'inj*', and delimiting by language and relevance to the paper aim. Impact load can be measured biomechanically by the use of instrumented equipment (e.g. beatboard), instrumentation on the gymnast (accelerometers), or by landings on force plates. We need further information on injury mechanisms and risk factors in gymnastics and practical methods of monitoring training loads. We have not yet shown, beyond a theoretical approach, how biomechanical analysis of gymnastics can help reduce injury risk through injury prevention interventions. Given the high magnitude of impact load, both acute and accumulative, coaches should monitor impact loads per training session, taking into consideration training quality and quantity such as the control of rotation and the height from which the landings are executed. PMID:23072044

  8. Risk newsboy: approach for addressing uncertainty in developing action levels and cleanup limits

    SciTech Connect

    Cooke, Roger; MacDonell, Margaret

    2007-07-01

    Site cleanup decisions involve developing action levels and residual limits for key contaminants, to assure health protection during the cleanup period and into the long term. Uncertainty is inherent in the toxicity information used to define these levels, based on incomplete scientific knowledge regarding dose-response relationships across various hazards and exposures at environmentally relevant levels. This problem can be addressed by applying principles used to manage uncertainty in operations research, as illustrated by the newsboy dilemma. Each day a newsboy must balance the risk of buying more papers than he can sell against the risk of not buying enough. Setting action levels and cleanup limits involves a similar concept of balancing and distributing risks and benefits in the face of uncertainty. The newsboy approach can be applied to develop health-based target concentrations for both radiological and chemical contaminants, with stakeholder input being crucial to assessing 'regret' levels. Associated tools include structured expert judgment elicitation to quantify uncertainty in the dose-response relationship, and mathematical techniques such as probabilistic inversion and iterative proportional fitting. (authors)

  9. Precautionary approaches to the appraisal of risk: a case study of a genetically modified crop.

    PubMed

    Stirling, A; Mayer, S

    2000-01-01

    There are strong scientific reasons for holding the broader scope of precautionary approaches to be more consistent with the scientific foundations of rational choice and probability theory than are conventional narrow risk-assessment techniques. The imperatives both of science and precaution can be seen to pull in the same direction. The regulatory appraisal of risk should become more systematic and broader in scope. In particular, a set of criteria can be developed concerning the need for greater humility, completeness, transparency, and participation in regulatory appraisal, with specific attention to the comparison of different options (including mixtures of options), the consideration of benefits and justifications, and the systematic "mapping" of the ways in which different framing assumptions lead to different pictures of performance. A case study of a pilot exercise applying a multi-criteria mapping method to the regulatory appraisal of a genetically modified crop is reported. The results are more complete than orthodox risk assessment, in that they embody consideration of an unlimited array of issues and include consideration of a wide range of different strategic alternatives to the use of GM technologies. It is concluded that conventional regulatory appraisal might be adapted to better address the imperatives of both science and precaution.

  10. Examining Food Risk in the Large using a Complex, Networked System-of-sytems Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Ambrosiano, John; Newkirk, Ryan; Mc Donald, Mark P

    2010-12-03

    The food production infrastructure is a highly complex system of systems. Characterizing the risks of intentional contamination in multi-ingredient manufactured foods is extremely challenging because the risks depend on the vulnerabilities of food processing facilities and on the intricacies of the supply-distribution networks that link them. A pure engineering approach to modeling the system is impractical because of the overall system complexity and paucity of data. A methodology is needed to assess food contamination risk 'in the large', based on current, high-level information about manufacturing facilities, corrunodities and markets, that will indicate which food categories are most at risk of intentional contamination and warrant deeper analysis. The approach begins by decomposing the system for producing a multi-ingredient food into instances of two subsystem archetypes: (1) the relevant manufacturing and processing facilities, and (2) the networked corrunodity flows that link them to each other and consumers. Ingredient manufacturing subsystems are modeled as generic systems dynamics models with distributions of key parameters that span the configurations of real facilities. Networks representing the distribution systems are synthesized from general information about food corrunodities. This is done in a series of steps. First, probability networks representing the aggregated flows of food from manufacturers to wholesalers, retailers, other manufacturers, and direct consumers are inferred from high-level approximate information. This is followed by disaggregation of the general flows into flows connecting 'large' and 'small' categories of manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers, and consumers. Optimization methods are then used to determine the most likely network flows consistent with given data. Vulnerability can be assessed for a potential contamination point using a modified CARVER + Shock model. Once the facility and corrunodity flow models are

  11. Neighborhoods and Adolescent Health-Risk Behavior: An Ecological Network Approach1

    PubMed Central

    Browning, Christopher R.; Soller, Brian; Jackson, Aubrey L.

    2014-01-01

    This study integrates insights from social network analysis, activity space perspectives, and theories of urban and spatial processes to present an innovative approach to neighborhood effects on health-risk behavior among youth. We suggest spatial patterns of neighborhood residents’ non-home routine activities may be conceptualized as ecological, or “eco”-networks, which are two-mode networks that indirectly link residents through socio-spatial overlap in routine activities. We further argue structural configurations of eco-networks are consequential for youth’s behavioral health. In this study we focus on a key structural feature of eco-networks—the neighborhood-level extent to which households share two or more activity locations, or eco-network reinforcement—and its association with two dimensions of health-risk behavior, substance use and delinquency/sexual activity. Using geographic data on non-home routine activity locations among respondents from the Los Angeles Family and Neighborhood Survey (L.A.FANS), we constructed neighborhood-specific eco-networks by connecting sampled households to “activity clusters,” which are sets of spatially-proximate activity locations. We then measured eco-network reinforcement and examined its association with adolescent dimensions of health risk behavior employing a sample of 830 youth ages 12-17 nested in 65 census tracts. We also examined whether neighborhood-level social processes (collective efficacy and intergenerational closure) mediate the association between eco-network reinforcement and the outcomes considered. Results indicated eco-network reinforcement exhibits robust negative associations with both substance use and delinquency/sexual activity scales. Eco-network reinforcement effects were not explained by potential mediating variables. In addition to introducing a novel theoretical and empirical approach to neighborhood effects on youth, our findings highlight the importance of eco

  12. Grouping and Read-Across Approaches for Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    PubMed Central

    Oomen, Agnes G.; Bleeker, Eric A. J.; Bos, Peter M. J.; van Broekhuizen, Fleur; Gottardo, Stefania; Groenewold, Monique; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Marcomini, Antonio; Peijnenburg, Willie J. G. M.; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J.; van Tongeren, Martie; Wiench, Karin; Wohlleben, Wendel; Landsiedel, Robert

    2015-01-01

    Physicochemical properties of chemicals affect their exposure, toxicokinetics/fate and hazard, and for nanomaterials, the variation of these properties results in a wide variety of materials with potentially different risks. To limit the amount of testing for risk assessment, the information gathering process for nanomaterials needs to be efficient. At the same time, sufficient information to assess the safety of human health and the environment should be available for each nanomaterial. Grouping and read-across approaches can be utilised to meet these goals. This article presents different possible applications of grouping and read-across for nanomaterials within the broader perspective of the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy (RAS), as developed in the EU FP7 project MARINA. Firstly, nanomaterials can be grouped based on limited variation in physicochemical properties to subsequently design an efficient testing strategy that covers the entire group. Secondly, knowledge about exposure, toxicokinetics/fate or hazard, for example via properties such as dissolution rate, aspect ratio, chemical (non-)activity, can be used to organise similar materials in generic groups to frame issues that need further attention, or potentially to read-across. Thirdly, when data related to specific endpoints is required, read-across can be considered, using data from a source material for the target nanomaterial. Read-across could be based on a scientifically sound justification that exposure, distribution to the target (fate/toxicokinetics) and hazard of the target material are similar to, or less than, the source material. These grouping and read-across approaches pave the way for better use of available information on nanomaterials and are flexible enough to allow future adaptations related to scientific developments. PMID:26516872

  13. Neighborhoods and adolescent health-risk behavior: an ecological network approach.

    PubMed

    Browning, Christopher R; Soller, Brian; Jackson, Aubrey L

    2015-01-01

    This study integrates insights from social network analysis, activity space perspectives, and theories of urban and spatial processes to present an novel approach to neighborhood effects on health-risk behavior among youth. We suggest spatial patterns of neighborhood residents' non-home routines may be conceptualized as ecological, or "eco"-networks, which are two-mode networks that indirectly link residents through socio-spatial overlap in routine activities. We further argue structural configurations of eco-networks are consequential for youth's behavioral health. In this study we focus on a key structural feature of eco-networks--the neighborhood-level extent to which household dyads share two or more activity locations, or eco-network reinforcement--and its association with two dimensions of health-risk behavior, substance use and delinquency/sexual activity. Using geographic data on non-home routine activity locations among respondents from the Los Angeles Family and Neighborhood Survey (L.A.FANS), we constructed neighborhood-specific eco-networks by connecting sampled households to "activity clusters," which are sets of spatially-proximate activity locations. We then measured eco-network reinforcement and examined its association with dimensions of adolescent health risk behavior employing a sample of 830 youth ages 12-17 nested in 65 census tracts. We also examined whether neighborhood-level social processes (collective efficacy and intergenerational closure) mediate the association between eco-network reinforcement and the outcomes considered. Results indicated eco-network reinforcement exhibits robust negative associations with both substance use and delinquency/sexual activity scales. Eco-network reinforcement effects were not explained by potential mediating variables. In addition to introducing a novel theoretical and empirical approach to neighborhood effects on youth, our findings highlight the importance of intersecting conventional routines for

  14. Grouping and Read-Across Approaches for Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Oomen, Agnes G; Bleeker, Eric A J; Bos, Peter M J; van Broekhuizen, Fleur; Gottardo, Stefania; Groenewold, Monique; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Marcomini, Antonio; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Wiench, Karin; Wohlleben, Wendel; Landsiedel, Robert

    2015-10-01

    Physicochemical properties of chemicals affect their exposure, toxicokinetics/fate and hazard, and for nanomaterials, the variation of these properties results in a wide variety of materials with potentially different risks. To limit the amount of testing for risk assessment, the information gathering process for nanomaterials needs to be efficient. At the same time, sufficient information to assess the safety of human health and the environment should be available for each nanomaterial. Grouping and read-across approaches can be utilised to meet these goals. This article presents different possible applications of grouping and read-across for nanomaterials within the broader perspective of the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy (RAS), as developed in the EU FP7 project MARINA. Firstly, nanomaterials can be grouped based on limited variation in physicochemical properties to subsequently design an efficient testing strategy that covers the entire group. Secondly, knowledge about exposure, toxicokinetics/fate or hazard, for example via properties such as dissolution rate, aspect ratio, chemical (non-)activity, can be used to organise similar materials in generic groups to frame issues that need further attention, or potentially to read-across. Thirdly, when data related to specific endpoints is required, read-across can be considered, using data from a source material for the target nanomaterial. Read-across could be based on a scientifically sound justification that exposure, distribution to the target (fate/toxicokinetics) and hazard of the target material are similar to, or less than, the source material. These grouping and read-across approaches pave the way for better use of available information on nanomaterials and are flexible enough to allow future adaptations related to scientific developments. PMID:26516872

  15. How to Quantify Sustainable Development: A Risk-Based Approach to Water Quality Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarang, Amin; Vahedi, Arman; Shamsai, Abolfazl

    2008-02-01

    Since the term was coined in the Brundtland report in 1987, the issue of sustainable development has been challenged in terms of quantification. Different policy options may lend themselves more or less to the underlying principles of sustainability, but no analytical tools are available for a more in-depth assessment of the degree of sustainability. Overall, there are two major schools of thought employing the sustainability concept in managerial decisions: those of measuring and those of monitoring. Measurement of relative sustainability is the key issue in bridging the gap between theory and practice of sustainability of water resources systems. The objective of this study is to develop a practical tool for quantifying and assessing the degree of relative sustainability of water quality systems based on risk-based indicators, including reliability, resilience, and vulnerability. Current work on the Karoun River, the largest river in Iran, has included the development of an integrated model consisting of two main parts: a water quality simulation subroutine to evaluate Dissolved Oxygen Biological Oxygen Demand (DO-BOD) response, and an estimation of risk-based indicators subroutine via the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). We also developed a simple waste load allocation model via Least Cost and Uniform Treatment approaches in order to consider the optimal point of pollutants control costs given a desired reliability value which addresses DO in two different targets. The Risk-based approach developed herein, particularly via the FORM technique, appears to be an appropriately efficient tool for estimating the relative sustainability. Moreover, our results in the Karoun system indicate that significant changes in sustainability values are possible through dedicating money for treatment and strict pollution controls while simultaneously requiring a technical advance along change in current attitudes for environment protection.

  16. Collaborative multi-stakeholder approach to drafting flood risk management plans in Wallonia, Belgium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maroy, Edith; Javaux, Mathieu; Vandermosten, Pierre; Englebert, Benjamin

    2015-04-01

    The Flood Directive 2007/60/CE establishes a common framework within the European Union for assessing and reducing risks posed by floods on human health, the environment, economic activity and cultural heritage. For that purpose, Member States had to establish flood areas and flood risk maps, and subsequently, flood risk management plans (due December 2015). According to the Directive, special attention is to be paid to international coordination for transboundary water courses, integrated management approaches at the catchment scale, cost-effectiveness of measures and public involvement. Management measures must focus on reducing the probability of flooding and the potential consequences of flooding. They must cover prevention, protection and preparedness and must take into account relevant aspects, such as water management, soil management, spatial planning, land use and nature conservation. Floods in Wallonia mostly originate from overflowing of both little sloped rivers and highly reactive rivers but also, from concentrated runoff in the intensely cultivated and erosion-prone region north of the Sambre-Meuse axis. Consequently, walloon flood area maps not only show flood areas based on hydraulic modelling and observations but also runoff concentration axis in agricultural areas. Now released to the public, this information can be used to assess the risk of damage for land planning and erosion control strategies. Incidentally, some 166 km2 were mapped as flood hazard area with a return period of 25 years, 28.8 of which are urbanized or destined to urbanisation and counting of number of approximatively 39.000 people living in those areas. Flood area and flood risk maps should be the starting point of elaborating flood risk management plans. In order to involve the diversity of water managers and stakeholders in the drafting of a management plan for hydrographic districts in Wallonia, responsible authorities decided to mandate scientists and engineers to organize

  17. Crash risk analysis for Shanghai urban expressways: A Bayesian semi-parametric modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Yu, Rongjie; Wang, Xuesong; Yang, Kui; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

    2016-10-01

    Urban expressway systems have been developed rapidly in recent years in China; it has become one key part of the city roadway networks as carrying large traffic volume and providing high traveling speed. Along with the increase of traffic volume, traffic safety has become a major issue for Chinese urban expressways due to the frequent crash occurrence and the non-recurrent congestions caused by them. For the purpose of unveiling crash occurrence mechanisms and further developing Active Traffic Management (ATM) control strategies to improve traffic safety, this study developed disaggregate crash risk analysis models with loop detector traffic data and historical crash data. Bayesian random effects logistic regression models were utilized as it can account for the unobserved heterogeneity among crashes. However, previous crash risk analysis studies formulated random effects distributions in a parametric approach, which assigned them to follow normal distributions. Due to the limited information known about random effects distributions, subjective parametric setting may be incorrect. In order to construct more flexible and robust random effects to capture the unobserved heterogeneity, Bayesian semi-parametric inference technique was introduced to crash risk analysis in this study. Models with both inference techniques were developed for total crashes; semi-parametric models were proved to provide substantial better model goodness-of-fit, while the two models shared consistent coefficient estimations. Later on, Bayesian semi-parametric random effects logistic regression models were developed for weekday peak hour crashes, weekday non-peak hour crashes, and weekend non-peak hour crashes to investigate different crash occurrence scenarios. Significant factors that affect crash risk have been revealed and crash mechanisms have been concluded.

  18. Crash risk analysis for Shanghai urban expressways: A Bayesian semi-parametric modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Yu, Rongjie; Wang, Xuesong; Yang, Kui; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

    2016-10-01

    Urban expressway systems have been developed rapidly in recent years in China; it has become one key part of the city roadway networks as carrying large traffic volume and providing high traveling speed. Along with the increase of traffic volume, traffic safety has become a major issue for Chinese urban expressways due to the frequent crash occurrence and the non-recurrent congestions caused by them. For the purpose of unveiling crash occurrence mechanisms and further developing Active Traffic Management (ATM) control strategies to improve traffic safety, this study developed disaggregate crash risk analysis models with loop detector traffic data and historical crash data. Bayesian random effects logistic regression models were utilized as it can account for the unobserved heterogeneity among crashes. However, previous crash risk analysis studies formulated random effects distributions in a parametric approach, which assigned them to follow normal distributions. Due to the limited information known about random effects distributions, subjective parametric setting may be incorrect. In order to construct more flexible and robust random effects to capture the unobserved heterogeneity, Bayesian semi-parametric inference technique was introduced to crash risk analysis in this study. Models with both inference techniques were developed for total crashes; semi-parametric models were proved to provide substantial better model goodness-of-fit, while the two models shared consistent coefficient estimations. Later on, Bayesian semi-parametric random effects logistic regression models were developed for weekday peak hour crashes, weekday non-peak hour crashes, and weekend non-peak hour crashes to investigate different crash occurrence scenarios. Significant factors that affect crash risk have been revealed and crash mechanisms have been concluded. PMID:26847949

  19. Modeling the Interplay of Multilevel Risk Factors for Future Academic and Behavior Problems: A Person-Centered Approach

    PubMed Central

    Lanza, Stephanie T.; Rhoades, Brittany L.; Nix, Robert L.; Greenberg, Mark T.

    2010-01-01

    This study identified profiles of 13 risk factors across child, family, school, and neighborhood domains in a diverse sample of children in kindergarten from 4 US locations (n = 750; 45% minority). It then examined the relation of those early risk profiles to externalizing problems, school failure, and low academic achievement in Grade 5. A person-centered approach, latent class analysis, revealed four unique risk profiles, which varied considerably across urban African American, urban white, and rural white children. Profiles characterized by several risks that cut across multiple domains conferred the highest risk for negative outcomes. Compared to a variable-centered approach, such as a cumulative risk index, these findings provide a more nuanced understanding of the early precursors to negative outcomes. For example, results suggested that urban children in single-parent homes that have few other risk factors (i.e., show at least average parenting warmth and consistency and report relatively low stress and high social support) are at quite low risk for externalizing problems, but at relatively high risk for poor grades and low academic achievement. These findings provide important information for refining and targeting preventive interventions to groups of children who share particular constellations of risk factors. PMID:20423544

  20. An Application of Bayesian Approach in Modeling Risk of Death in an Intensive Care Unit

    PubMed Central

    Wong, Rowena Syn Yin; Ismail, Noor Azina

    2016-01-01

    Background and Objectives There are not many studies that attempt to model intensive care unit (ICU) risk of death in developing countries, especially in South East Asia. The aim of this study was to propose and describe application of a Bayesian approach in modeling in-ICU deaths in a Malaysian ICU. Methods This was a prospective study in a mixed medical-surgery ICU in a multidisciplinary tertiary referral hospital in Malaysia. Data collection included variables that were defined in Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE IV) model. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation approach was applied in the development of four multivariate logistic regression predictive models for the ICU, where the main outcome measure was in-ICU mortality risk. The performance of the models were assessed through overall model fit, discrimination and calibration measures. Results from the Bayesian models were also compared against results obtained using frequentist maximum likelihood method. Results The study involved 1,286 consecutive ICU admissions between January 1, 2009 and June 30, 2010, of which 1,111 met the inclusion criteria. Patients who were admitted to the ICU were generally younger, predominantly male, with low co-morbidity load and mostly under mechanical ventilation. The overall in-ICU mortality rate was 18.5% and the overall mean Acute Physiology Score (APS) was 68.5. All four models exhibited good discrimination, with area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values approximately 0.8. Calibration was acceptable (Hosmer-Lemeshow p-values > 0.05) for all models, except for model M3. Model M1 was identified as the model with the best overall performance in this study. Conclusion Four prediction models were proposed, where the best model was chosen based on its overall performance in this study. This study has also demonstrated the promising potential of the Bayesian MCMC approach as an alternative in the analysis and modeling of

  1. Added value of molecular assay Xpert MTB/RIF compared to sputum smear microscopy to assess the risk of tuberculosis transmission in a low-prevalence country.

    PubMed

    Opota, O; Senn, L; Prod'hom, G; Mazza-Stalder, J; Tissot, F; Greub, G; Jaton, K

    2016-07-01

    Airborne precautions are required at hospital admission for patients with suspected pulmonary tuberculosis. The isolation is maintained until 3 serially collected sputum smears are acid-fast bacilli negative, a time- and labor-intensive method with limited sensitivity and specificity, which has a great impact on patient flow management. We evaluated the possibility of replacing the result of microscopy by the semiquantitative result of the molecular point-of-care test Xpert MTB/RIF to assess patients' transmission risk to quickly guide airborne isolation decisions in low-endemic countries. The performance of the Xpert MTB/RIF, used as a first-line test, was compared to the results of microscopy for specimens (n=242) collected from May 2010 to December 2014 in Lausanne, Switzerland. The sensitivity and specificity of Xpert MTB/RIF were 91.5% (65/71) and 99.6% (170/171), respectively, vs. 64.8% (46/71) and 94.2% (161/171) for microscopy. Samples with negative Xpert MTB/RIF were all smear negative for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (negative predictive value, 100%). The semiquantitative results of Xpert MTB/RIF-high, medium, low or very low-were found to correlate with acid-fast bacilli detection: positive predictive value of 100% (6/6), 96.5% (27/28), 52.2% (12/23) and 11.1% (1/9) respectively. Finally, when including clinical criteria, we identified 11 smear-negative but Xpert MTB/RIF-positive patients with a significant transmission potential. In conclusion, our data support the introduction of an Xpert MTB/RIF-based strategy as a replacement of smear microscopy for a faster and more accurate management of tuberculosis patients' transmission risk in a low-prevalence country. PMID:27139592

  2. Added value of molecular assay Xpert MTB/RIF compared to sputum smear microscopy to assess the risk of tuberculosis transmission in a low-prevalence country.

    PubMed

    Opota, O; Senn, L; Prod'hom, G; Mazza-Stalder, J; Tissot, F; Greub, G; Jaton, K

    2016-07-01

    Airborne precautions are required at hospital admission for patients with suspected pulmonary tuberculosis. The isolation is maintained until 3 serially collected sputum smears are acid-fast bacilli negative, a time- and labor-intensive method with limited sensitivity and specificity, which has a great impact on patient flow management. We evaluated the possibility of replacing the result of microscopy by the semiquantitative result of the molecular point-of-care test Xpert MTB/RIF to assess patients' transmission risk to quickly guide airborne isolation decisions in low-endemic countries. The performance of the Xpert MTB/RIF, used as a first-line test, was compared to the results of microscopy for specimens (n=242) collected from May 2010 to December 2014 in Lausanne, Switzerland. The sensitivity and specificity of Xpert MTB/RIF were 91.5% (65/71) and 99.6% (170/171), respectively, vs. 64.8% (46/71) and 94.2% (161/171) for microscopy. Samples with negative Xpert MTB/RIF were all smear negative for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (negative predictive value, 100%). The semiquantitative results of Xpert MTB/RIF-high, medium, low or very low-were found to correlate with acid-fast bacilli detection: positive predictive value of 100% (6/6), 96.5% (27/28), 52.2% (12/23) and 11.1% (1/9) respectively. Finally, when including clinical criteria, we identified 11 smear-negative but Xpert MTB/RIF-positive patients with a significant transmission potential. In conclusion, our data support the introduction of an Xpert MTB/RIF-based strategy as a replacement of smear microscopy for a faster and more accurate management of tuberculosis patients' transmission risk in a low-prevalence country.

  3. Administrative risk quantification of subcutaneous and intravenous therapies in Italian centers utilizing the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis approach

    PubMed Central

    Ponzetti, Clemente; Canciani, Monica; Farina, Massimo; Era, Sara; Walzer, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    Background In oncology, an important parameter of safety is the potential treatment error in hospitals. The analyzed hypothesis is that of subcutaneous therapies would provide a superior safety benefit over intravenous therapies through fixed-dose administrations, when analyzed with trastuzumab and rituximab. Methods For the calculation of risk levels, the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis approach was applied. Within this approach, the critical treatment path is followed and risk classification for each individual step is estimated. For oncology and hematology administration, 35 different risk steps were assessed. The study was executed in 17 hematology and 16 breast cancer centers in Italy. As intravenous and subcutaneous were the only injection routes in medical available for trastuzumab and rituximab in oncology at the time of the study, these two therapies were chosen. Results When the risk classes were calculated, eight high-risk areas were identified for the administration of an intravenous therapy in hematology or oncology; 13 areas would be defined as having a median-risk classification and 14 areas as having a low-risk classification (total risk areas: n=35). When the new subcutaneous formulation would be applied, 23 different risk levels could be completely eliminated (65% reduction). Important high-risk classes such as dose calculation, preparation and package labeling, preparation of the access to the vein, pump infusion preparation, and infusion monitoring were included in the eliminations. The overall risk level for the intravenous administration was estimated to be 756 (ex-ante) and could be reduced by 70% (ex-post). The potential harm compensation for errors related to pharmacy would be decreased from eight risk classes to only three risk classes. Conclusion The subcutaneous administration of trastuzumab (breast cancer) and rituximab (hematology) might lower the risk of administration and treatment errors for patients and could hence indirectly have

  4. A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

    2014-10-01

    Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in

  5. Proactive Risk Assessment for Ebola-Infected Patients: A Systematic Approach to Identifying and Minimizing Risk to Healthcare Personnel.

    PubMed

    Fernandez, Rosemarie; Mitchell, Steven; Ehrmantraut, Ross; Meschke, John Scott; Simcox, Nancy J; Wolz, Sarah A; Parker, Sarah Henrickson

    2016-07-01

    Performing patient care while wearing high-level personal protective equipment presents risks to healthcare providers. Our failure mode effects analysis identified 81 overall risks associated with providing hygienic care and linen change to a patient with continuous watery stool. Implementation of checklists and scheduled pauses could potentially mitigate 76.5% of all risks. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2016;37:867-871. PMID:27226216

  6. Capturing changes in flood risk with Bayesian approaches for flood damage assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vogel, Kristin; Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Thieken, Annegret; Müller, Meike; Sieg, Tobias; Laudan, Jonas; Kienzler, Sarah; Weise, Laura; Merz, Bruno; Scherbaum, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk is a function of hazard as well as of exposure and vulnerability. All three components are under change over space and time and have to be considered for reliable damage estimations and risk analyses, since this is the basis for an efficient, adaptable risk management. Hitherto, models for estimating flood damage are comparatively simple and cannot sufficiently account for changing conditions. The Bayesian network approach allows for a multivariate modeling of complex systems without relying on expert knowledge about physical constraints. In a Bayesian network each model component is considered to be a random variable. The way of interactions between those variables can be learned from observations or be defined by expert knowledge. Even a combination of both is possible. Moreover, the probabilistic framework captures uncertainties related to the prediction and provides a probability distribution for the damage instead of a point estimate. The graphical representation of Bayesian networks helps to study the change of probabilities for changing circumstances and may thus simplify the communication between scientists and public authorities. In the framework of the DFG-Research Training Group "NatRiskChange" we aim to develop Bayesian networks for flood damage and vulnerability assessments of residential buildings and companies under changing conditions. A Bayesian network learned from data, collected over the last 15 years in flooded regions in the Elbe and Danube catchments (Germany), reveals the impact of many variables like building characteristics, precaution and warning situation on flood damage to residential buildings. While the handling of incomplete and hybrid (discrete mixed with continuous) data are the most challenging issues in the study on residential buildings, a similar study, that focuses on the vulnerability of small to medium sized companies, bears new challenges. Relying on a much smaller data set for the determination of the model

  7. The possibilities of applying a risk-oriented approach to the NPP reliability and safety enhancement problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komarov, Yu. A.

    2014-10-01

    An analysis and some generalizations of approaches to risk assessments are presented. Interconnection between different interpretations of the "risk" notion is shown, and the possibility of applying the fuzzy set theory to risk assessments is demonstrated. A generalized formulation of the risk assessment notion is proposed in applying risk-oriented approaches to the problem of enhancing reliability and safety in nuclear power engineering. The solution of problems using the developed risk-oriented approaches aimed at achieving more reliable and safe operation of NPPs is described. The results of studies aimed at determining the need (advisability) to modernize/replace NPP elements and systems are presented together with the results obtained from elaborating the methodical principles of introducing the repair concept based on the equipment technical state. The possibility of reducing the scope of tests and altering the NPP systems maintenance strategy is substantiated using the risk-oriented approach. A probabilistic model for estimating the validity of boric acid concentration measurements is developed.

  8. An approach for the anticipatory and participatory management of current and future flood risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luther, J.

    2012-04-01

    Despite the fact that many measures to attenuate flood hazards and reduce vulnerabilities are being implemented, adverse effects of floods are ever-increasing in most parts of the world. On the one hand this holds true for economically and/or demographically growing regions. On the other hand this applies also to areas that face population shrinkage and economic problems. Such flood risks occur in human-environment systems and are subject to dynamics caused by a number of drivers such as climate change, land-use changes, and others. Many drivers evolve slowly over time or show time-lag effects and long return periods. Moreover, certain decisions may determine the control actions of the following decades. At present, current flood risks are mostly determined based on historic developments and the ex post analysis of flood events. Approaches that look at the future dynamics of both hazards and vulnerable elements ex ante in an integrated manner are rare. Instead, future hazard scenarios are often just overlaid with current socio-economic data, which poses a strong inconsistency. Usually the focus lies on rather short-term, specific or local problems. But many developments and measures show their effects only after long time periods and when considering the whole catchment area. This calls for a holistic and long-term view into the future and implies the challenge of dealing with many uncertainties due to the system's complexity. In order to anticipate and react to these developments, this contribution suggests developing a flexible, yet holistic approach to design, analyse and evaluate alternative futures of such human-environment systems. These futures follow a scenario understanding that considers both specific (current) factor constellations as well as consistent assumptions on autonomous developments (so-called development frameworks) and potentials for control (strategic alternatives) of the interacting entities that influence flood risk. Different scenario

  9. Screening houses for vapor intrusion risks: a multiple regression analysis approach.

    PubMed

    Johnston, Jill E; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald

    2013-06-01

    The migration of chlorinated volatile organic compounds from groundwater to indoor air-known as vapor intrusion-can be an important exposure pathway at hazardous waste sites. Because sampling indoor air at every potentially affected home is often logistically infeasible, screening tools are needed to help identify at-risk homes. Currently, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) uses a simple screening approach that employs a generic vapor "attenuation factor," the ratio of the indoor air pollutant concentration to the pollutant concentration in the soil gas directly above the groundwater table. At every potentially affected home above contaminated groundwater, the EPA assumes the vapor attenuation factor is less than 1/1000--that is, that the indoor air concentration will not exceed 1/1000 times the soil-gas concentration immediately above groundwater. This paper reports on a screening-level model that improves on the EPA approach by considering environmental, contaminant, and household characteristics. The model is based on an analysis of the EPA's vapor intrusion database, which contains almost 2,400 indoor air and corresponding subsurface concentration samples collected in 15 states. We use the site data to develop a multilevel regression model for predicting the vapor attenuation factor. We find that the attenuation factor varies significantly with soil type, depth to groundwater, season, household foundation type, and contaminant molecular weight. The resulting model decreases the rate of false negatives compared to EPA's screening approach.

  10. Neurobiological studies of risk assessment: a comparison of expected utility and mean-variance approaches.

    PubMed

    D'Acremont, Mathieu; Bossaerts, Peter

    2008-12-01

    When modeling valuation under uncertainty, economists generally prefer expected utility because it has an axiomatic foundation, meaning that the resulting choices will satisfy a number of rationality requirements. In expected utility theory, values are computed by multiplying probabilities of each possible state of nature by the payoff in that state and summing the results. The drawback of this approach is that all state probabilities need to be dealt with separately, which becomes extremely cumbersome when it comes to learning. Finance academics and professionals, however, prefer to value risky prospects in terms of a trade-off between expected reward and risk, where the latter is usually measured in terms of reward variance. This mean-variance approach is fast and simple and greatly facilitates learning, but it impedes assigning values to new gambles on the basis of those of known ones. To date, it is unclear whether the human brain computes values in accordance with expected utility theory or with mean-variance analysis. In this article, we discuss the theoretical and empirical arguments that favor one or the other theory. We also propose a new experimental paradigm that could determine whether the human brain follows the expected utility or the mean-variance approach. Behavioral results of implementation of the paradigm are discussed.

  11. Development and application of the SSD approach in scientific case studies for ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Del Signore, Anastasia; Hendriks, A Jan; Lenders, H J Rob; Leuven, Rob S E W; Breure, A M

    2016-09-01

    Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) are used in ecological risk assessment for extrapolation of the results of toxicity tests with single species to a toxicity threshold considered protective of ecosystem structure and functioning. The attention to and importance of the SSD approach has increased in scientific and regulatory communities since the 1990s. Discussion and criticism have been triggered on the concept of the approach as well as its technical aspects (e.g., distribution type, number of toxicity endpoints). Various questions remain unanswered, especially with regard to different endpoints, statistical methods, and protectiveness of threshold levels, for example. In the present literature review (covering the period 2002-2013), case studies are explored in which the SSD approach was applied, as well as how endpoint types, species choice, and data availability affect SSDs. How statistical methods may be used to construct reliable SSDs and whether the lower 5th percentile hazard concentrations (HC5s) from a generic SSD can be protective for a specific local community are also investigated. It is shown that estimated protective concentrations were determined by taxonomic groups rather than the statistical method used to construct the distribution. Based on comparisons between semifield and laboratory-based SSDs, the output from a laboratory SSD was protective of semifield communities in the majority of studies. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:2149-2161. © 2016 SETAC. PMID:27144499

  12. Agricultural Education: Value Adding.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Riesenberg, Lou E.; And Others

    1989-01-01

    This issue develops the theme of "Agricultural Education--Value Adding." The concept value adding has been a staple in the world of agricultural business for describing adding value to a commodity that would profit the producer and the local community. Agricultural education should add value to individuals and society to justify agricultural…

  13. Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

    SciTech Connect

    Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J.

    2006-07-01

    The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

  14. Cyclist activity and injury risk analysis at signalized intersections: a Bayesian modelling approach.

    PubMed

    Strauss, Jillian; Miranda-Moreno, Luis F; Morency, Patrick

    2013-10-01

    This study proposes a two-equation Bayesian modelling approach to simultaneously study cyclist injury occurrence and bicycle activity at signalized intersections as joint outcomes. This approach deals with the potential presence of endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneities and is used to identify factors associated with both cyclist injuries and volumes. Its application to identify high-risk corridors is also illustrated. Montreal, Quebec, Canada is the application environment, using an extensive inventory of a large sample of signalized intersections containing disaggregate motor-vehicle traffic volumes and bicycle flows, geometric design, traffic control and built environment characteristics in the vicinity of the intersections. Cyclist injury data for the period of 2003-2008 is used in this study. Also, manual bicycle counts were standardized using temporal and weather adjustment factors to obtain average annual daily volumes. Results confirm and quantify the effects of both bicycle and motor-vehicle flows on cyclist injury occurrence. Accordingly, more cyclists at an intersection translate into more cyclist injuries but lower injury rates due to the non-linear association between bicycle volume and injury occurrence. Furthermore, the results emphasize the importance of turning motor-vehicle movements. The presence of bus stops and total crosswalk length increase cyclist injury occurrence whereas the presence of a raised median has the opposite effect. Bicycle activity through intersections was found to increase as employment, number of metro stations, land use mix, area of commercial land use type, length of bicycle facilities and the presence of schools within 50-800 m of the intersection increase. Intersections with three approaches are expected to have fewer cyclists than those with four. Using Bayesian analysis, expected injury frequency and injury rates were estimated for each intersection and used to rank corridors. Corridors with high bicycle volumes

  15. Methods Development for a Spatially Explicit Population-Level Risk Assessment, Uncertainty Analysis, and Comparison with Risk Quotient Approaches

    EPA Science Inventory

    The standard framework of Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) uses organism-level assessment endpoints to qualitatively determine the risk to populations. While organism-level toxicity data provide the pathway by which a species may be affected by a chemical stressor, they neither i...

  16. A pilot study to evaluate the efficacy of adding a structured home visiting intervention to improve outcomes for high-risk families attending the Incredible Years Parent Programme: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Antisocial behaviour and adult criminality often have their origins in childhood and are best addressed early in the child’s life using evidence-based treatments such as the ‘Incredible Years Parent Programme’. However, families with additional risk factors who are at highest risk for poor outcomes do not always make sufficient change while attending such programmes. Additional support to address barriers and improve implementation of positive parenting strategies while these families attend the Incredible Years Programme may improve overall outcomes. The study aims to evaluate the efficacy of adding a structured home visiting intervention (Home Parent Support) to improve outcomes in families most at risk of poor treatment response from the Incredible Years intervention. This study will inform the design of a larger prospective randomised controlled trial. Methods/design A pilot single-blind, parallel, superiority, randomised controlled trial. Randomisation will be undertaken using a computer-generated sequence in a 1:1 ratio to the two treatments arranged in permuted blocks with stratification by age, sex, and ethnicity. One hundred and twenty six participants enrolled in the Incredible Years Parent Programme who meet the high-risk criteria will be randomly allocated to receive either Incredible Years Parent Programme and Home Parent Support, or the Incredible Years Parent Programme alone. The Home Parent Support is a 10-session structured home visiting intervention provided by a trained therapist, alongside the usual Incredible Years Parent Programme, to enhance the adoption of key parenting skills. The primary outcome is the change in child behaviour from baseline to post-intervention in parent reported Eyberg Child Behavior Inventory Problem Scale. Discussion This is the first formal evaluation of adding Home Parent Support alongside Incredible Years Parent Programme for families with risk factors who typically have poorer treatment outcomes

  17. Impact of marriage on HIV/AIDS risk behaviors among impoverished, at-risk couples: a multilevel latent variable approach.

    PubMed

    Stein, Judith A; Nyamathi, Adeline; Ullman, Jodie B; Bentler, Peter M

    2007-01-01

    Studies among normative samples generally demonstrate a positive impact of marriage on health behaviors and other related attitudes. In this study, we examine the impact of marriage on HIV/AIDS risk behaviors and attitudes among impoverished, highly stressed, homeless couples, many with severe substance abuse problems. A multilevel analysis of 368 high-risk sexually intimate married and unmarried heterosexual couples assessed individual and couple-level effects on social support, substance use problems, HIV/AIDS knowledge, perceived HIV/AIDS risk, needle-sharing, condom use, multiple sex partners, and HIV/AIDS testing. More variance was explained in the protective and risk variables by couple-level latent variable predictors than by individual latent variable predictors, although some gender effects were found (e.g., more alcohol problems among men). The couple-level variable of marriage predicted lower perceived risk, less deviant social support, and fewer sex partners but predicted more needle-sharing.

  18. Community-Wide Health Risk Assessment Using Geographically Resolved Demographic Data: A Synthetic Population Approach

    PubMed Central

    Levy, Jonathan I.; Fabian, Maria Patricia; Peters, Junenette L.

    2014-01-01

    -resolved individual-level microdata that can be used in community-wide exposure and risk assessment studies. This approach provides insights regarding community-scale exposure and vulnerability patterns, valuable in settings where policy can be informed by characterization of multi-stressor exposures and health risks at high resolution. PMID:24489855

  19. The need for comprehensive vulnerability approaches to mirror the multiplicity in mountain hazard risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keiler, Margreth; Fuchs, Sven

    2014-05-01

    The concept of vulnerability is pillared by multiple disciplinary theories underpinning either a technical or a social origin of the concept and resulting in a range of paradigms for vulnerability quantification. By taking a natural scientific approach we argue that a large number of studies have focused either on damage-loss functions for individual mountain hazards or on semi-quantitative indicator-based approaches for multiple hazards (hazard chains). However, efforts to reduce susceptibility to hazards and to create disaster-resilient communities require intersections among these approaches, as well as among theories originating in natural and social sciences, since human activity cannot be seen independently from the environmental setting. Acknowledging different roots of disciplinary paradigms in risk management, issues determining structural, economic, institutional and social vulnerability have to be more comprehensively addressed in the future with respect to mountain hazards in Europe and beyond. It is argued that structural vulnerability as originator results in considerable economic vulnerability, generated by the institutional settings of dealing with natural hazards and shaped by the overall societal framework. If vulnerability and its counterpart, resilience, is analysed and evaluated by using such a comprehensive approach, a better understanding of the vulnerability-influencing parameters could be achieved, taking into account the interdependencies and interactions between the disciplinary foci. As a result, three key issues should be addressed in future research: (1) Vulnerability requires a new perspective on the relationship between society and environment: not as a duality, but more as a mutually constitutive relationship (including methods for assessment). (2) There is a need for concepts of vulnerability that emphasise the dynamics of temporal and spatial scales, particularly with respect to Global Change processes in mountain regions. (3

  20. An ecosystem services approach to pesticide risk assessment and risk management of non-target terrestrial plants: recommendations from a SETAC Europe workshop.

    PubMed

    Arts, Gertie H P; Dollinger, Margit; Kohlschmid, Eva; Maltby, Lorraine; Ochoa-Acuña, Hugo; Poulsen, Véronique

    2015-02-01

    The registration of plant protection products (PPPs) in the EU is under Regulation 1107/2009, which recommends a tiered approach to assessing the risk to non-target terrestrial plants (NTTPs). However, little information is provided on how to perform and implement higher tier studies or how to use them to refine the risk assessments. Therefore, a stakeholder workshop was organized to consolidate current knowledge and expertise to aid the further development of testing and assessment procedures for NTTPs. This brief communication highlights the agreed recommendations of the workshop, which relate to the three main themes, i.e. specific protection goals, risk assessment and mitigation. The participants of the workshop adopted the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) approach of using an ecosystem services framework for identifying specific protection goals. First, delivery and protection of ecosystem services were discussed for in-crop, in-field and off-crop, and off-field areas. Second, lower and higher tier risk assessment methods, including modelling approaches, were evaluated. Third, options for risk mitigation of spray drift and run-off were discussed and evaluated. Several important knowledge gaps were identified, and specific data collation and literature-based tasks were actioned to begin to address them. A full workshop report is planned for the fall of 2014.

  1. The VORISA Project: An Integrated Approach to Assessing Volcanic Hazard and Risk in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lindsay, J. M.; Moufti, R.

    2013-12-01

    The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has numerous large monogenetic volcanic fields, known locally as 'Harrat'. The largest of these, Harrat Rahat, produced a basaltic fissure eruption in 1256 AD with lava flows travelling within 20 km of the Islamic holy city Al-Madinah. With over 900 visible basaltic and trachytic vents and periodic seismic swarms indicating stalled eruptions, an understanding of the risk of future eruptions in this volcanic field is vital. To systematically address this need we developed the Volcanic Risk in Saudi Arabia (VORISA) Project, a 3-year, multi-disciplinary international research collaboration that integrates geological, geophysical, hazard and risk studies. Detailed mapping and geochemical studies are being combined with new and existing age determinations to determine the style and sequence of events during past basaltic and trachytic eruptions. Data from gravity and magnetotelluric surveys are being integrated with microearthquake data from an 8-station borehole seismic research array to geophysically characterise the structure and nature of the crust, and thus constrain possible physical controls on magma propagation. All available data are being synthesised in hazard models to determine patterns in eruption frequency, magnitude, and style of past activity, as well as the probable location and style of a future event. Combined with geospatial vulnerability data, these hazard models, which include a reconstruction of the 1256 AD eruption, enable us to calculate and communicate volcanic risk to the city of Al-Madinah.

  2. Epidemiologic approaches to assessing human cancer risk from consuming aquatic food resources from chemically contaminated water.

    PubMed Central

    Ozonoff, D; Longnecker, M P

    1991-01-01

    Epidemiologic approaches to assessing human cancer risk from consuming fish from contaminated waters must confront the problems of long latency and rarity of the end point (cancer). The latency problem makes determination of diet history more difficult, while the low frequency of cancer as an end point reduces the statistical power of the study. These factors are discussed in relation to the study designs most commonly employed in epidemiology. It is suggested that the use of biomarkers for persistent chemicals may be useful to mitigate the difficulty of determining exposure, while the use of more prevalent and timely end points, such as carcinogen-DNA adducts or oncogene proteins, may make the latency and rarity problems more tractable. PMID:2050052

  3. Preventive study in subjects at risk of fatal familial insomnia: Innovative approach to rare diseases

    PubMed Central

    Forloni, Gianluigi; Tettamanti, Mauro; Lucca, Ugo; Albanese, Yasmin; Quaglio, Elena; Chiesa, Roberto; Erbetta, Alessandra; Villani, Flavio; Redaelli, Veronica; Tagliavini, Fabrizio; Artuso, Vladimiro; Roiter, Ignazio

    2015-01-01

    Abstract The text describes a preventive clinical trial with drug treatment in a very rare neurodegenerative disease (Fatal familial Insomnia, FFI) designed with the help of individuals at genetic risk of developing the disease, asymptomatic carriers, who have agreed to be exposed over a 10-year period to doxycycline, an antibiotic with anti-prion activity. At least 10 carriers of the FFI mutation over 42 y old will be treated with doxycycline (100 mg/die) and the incidence of the disease will be compared to that of an historical dataset. For ethical reasons a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial was not feasible, however the study design and the statistical analysis ensure the scientific value of the results. This approach might represent an important breakthrough in terms of potential therapy and knowledge of rare diseases that could give some hopes to these neglected patients. PMID:25996399

  4. Information security governance: a risk assessment approach to health information systems protection.

    PubMed

    Williams, Patricia A H

    2013-01-01

    It is no small task to manage the protection of healthcare data and healthcare information systems. In an environment that is demanding adaptation to change for all information collection, storage and retrieval systems, including those for of e-health and information systems, it is imperative that good information security governance is in place. This includes understanding and meeting legislative and regulatory requirements. This chapter provides three models to educate and guide organisations in this complex area, and to simplify the process of information security governance and ensure appropriate and effective measures are put in place. The approach is risk based, adapted and contextualized for healthcare. In addition, specific considerations of the impact of cloud services, secondary use of data, big data and mobile health are discussed.

  5. Application impact analysis: a risk-based approach to business continuity and disaster recovery.

    PubMed

    Epstein, Beth; Khan, Dawn Christine

    2014-01-01

    There are many possible disruptions that can occur in business. Overlooking or under planning for Business Continuity requires time, understanding and careful planning. Business Continuity Management is far more than producing a document and declaring business continuity success. What is the recipe for businesses to achieve continuity management success? Application Impact Analysis is a method for understanding the unique Business Attributes. This AIA Cycle involves a risk based approach to understanding the business priority and considering business aspects such as Financial, Operational, Service Structure, Contractual Legal, and Brand. The output of this analysis provides a construct for viewing data, evaluating impact, and delivering results, for an approved valuation of Recovery Time Objectives (RTO). PMID:24578024

  6. Information security governance: a risk assessment approach to health information systems protection.

    PubMed

    Williams, Patricia A H

    2013-01-01

    It is no small task to manage the protection of healthcare data and healthcare information systems. In an environment that is demanding adaptation to change for all information collection, storage and retrieval systems, including those for of e-health and information systems, it is imperative that good information security governance is in place. This includes understanding and meeting legislative and regulatory requirements. This chapter provides three models to educate and guide organisations in this complex area, and to simplify the process of information security governance and ensure appropriate and effective measures are put in place. The approach is risk based, adapted and contextualized for healthcare. In addition, specific considerations of the impact of cloud services, secondary use of data, big data and mobile health are discussed. PMID:24018517

  7. Preventive study in subjects at risk of fatal familial insomnia: Innovative approach to rare diseases.

    PubMed

    Forloni, Gianluigi; Tettamanti, Mauro; Lucca, Ugo; Albanese, Yasmin; Quaglio, Elena; Chiesa, Roberto; Erbetta, Alessandra; Villani, Flavio; Redaelli, Veronica; Tagliavini, Fabrizio; Artuso, Vladimiro; Roiter, Ignazio

    2015-01-01

    The text describes a preventive clinical trial with drug treatment in a very rare neurodegenerative disease (Fatal familial Insomnia, FFI) designed with the help of individuals at genetic risk of developing the disease, asymptomatic carriers, who have agreed to be exposed over a 10-year period to doxycycline, an antibiotic with anti-prion activity. At least 10 carriers of the FFI mutation over 42 y old will be treated with doxycycline (100 mg/die) and the incidence of the disease will be compared to that of an historical dataset. For ethical reasons a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial was not feasible, however the study design and the statistical analysis ensure the scientific value of the results. This approach might represent an important breakthrough in terms of potential therapy and knowledge of rare diseases that could give some hopes to these neglected patients.

  8. Theory-based approaches to understanding public emergency preparedness: implications for effective health and risk communication.

    PubMed

    Paek, Hye-Jin; Hilyard, Karen; Freimuth, Vicki; Barge, J Kevin; Mindlin, Michele

    2010-06-01

    Recent natural and human-caused disasters have awakened public health officials to the importance of emergency preparedness. Guided by health behavior and media effects theories, the analysis of a statewide survey in Georgia reveals that self-efficacy, subjective norm, and emergency news exposure are positively associated with the respondents' possession of emergency items and their stages of emergency preparedness. Practical implications suggest less focus on demographics as the sole predictor of emergency preparedness and more comprehensive measures of preparedness, including both a person's cognitive stage of preparedness and checklists of emergency items on hand. We highlight the utility of theory-based approaches for understanding and predicting public emergency preparedness as a way to enable more effective health and risk communication. PMID:20574880

  9. An integrated statistical and hydraulic modelling approach for collective flood risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamb, Rob; Keef, Caroline; Tawn, Jonathan A.; Hankin, Barry; Dunning, Paul

    2010-05-01

    This paper presents a methodology for assessing collective flood risk based on a combination of two innovative models. The first is a multivariate statistical model for extremes of river flow or sea level, based on the conditional exceedance approach of Heffernan and Tawn (2004) and Keef et al (2009). This model is analogous to a generalised form of copula function in that it separates the joint distribution of a variable into its marginal characteristics and its dependence structure. The dependence structure is flexible in its description of the joint extremes, which has advantages for representing spatial dependence in data such as river flows. The second part of the methodology is a two-dimensional (2D) hydraulic floodplain inundation model that is applied using parallel processing technology to provide high resolution gridded flood depth data over large regions (Lamb et al., 2009). These depth grids can then be combined with a model for economic losses. We present an overview of the methodology and demonstrate through simulation studies how it can be applied to estimate the distribution function of the spatially aggregated economic losses from flooding over regions up to the scale of England and Wales, or greater. The results are also placed in the context of hydrological assessment of the probability and severity of notable historical flood events experiences in the British Isles. Heffernan J. E. and Tawn J. A. (2004) A conditional approach for multivariate extreme values (with discussion) J. R. Statist. Soc. B, 66 497-546 Keef, C., J. Tawn, and C. Svensson. (2009). Spatial risk assessment for extreme river flows. Applied Statistics 58,(5) pp 601-618 Lamb, R., Crossley, A., Waller, S. (2009) A fast 2D floodplain inundation model, Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Water Management, 162, doi: 10.1680/wama.2009.162.1.1

  10. Development of a bioavailability-based risk assessment approach for nickel in freshwater sediments.

    PubMed

    Schlekat, Christian E; Garman, Emily R; Vangheluwe, Marnix Lu; Burton, G Allen

    2016-10-01

    To assess nickel (Ni) toxicity and behavior in freshwater sediments, a large-scale laboratory and field sediment testing program was conducted. The program used an integrative testing strategy to generate scientifically based threshold values for Ni in sediments and to develop integrated equilibrium partitioning-based bioavailability models for assessing risks of Ni to benthic ecosystems. The sediment testing program was a multi-institutional collaboration that involved extensive laboratory testing, field validation of laboratory findings, characterization of Ni behavior in natural and laboratory conditions, and examination of solid phase Ni speciation in sediments. The laboratory testing initiative was conducted in 3 phases to satisfy the following objectives: 1) evaluate various methods for spiking sediments with Ni to optimize the relevance of sediment Ni exposures; 2) generate reliable ecotoxicity data by conducting standardized chronic ecotoxicity tests using 9 benthic species in sediments with low and high Ni binding capacity; and, 3) examine sediment bioavailability relationships by conducting chronic ecotoxicity testing in sediments that showed broad ranges of acid volatile sulfides, organic C, and Fe. A subset of 6 Ni-spiked sediments was deployed in the field to examine benthic colonization and community effects. The sediment testing program yielded a broad, high quality data set that was used to develop a Species Sensitivity Distribution for benthic organisms in various sediment types, a reasonable worst case predicted no-effect concentration for Ni in sediment (PNECsediment ), and predictive models for bioavailability and toxicity of Ni in freshwater sediments. A bioavailability-based approach was developed using the ecotoxicity data and bioavailability models generated through the research program. The tiered approach can be used to fulfill the outstanding obligations under the European Union (EU) Existing Substances Risk Assessment, EU Registration

  11. New Zealand risk management approach for toxic cyanobacteria in drinking water.

    PubMed

    Kouzminov, Alexander; Ruck, John; Wood, Susanna A

    2007-06-01

    Cyanobacterial blooms are common seasonal phenomena occurring worldwide in fresh, estuarine and coastal waters, including those used for drinking-water supplies, recreation and stock watering. In New Zealand, the frequency of blooms and their geographic spread is likely to grow with increasing eutrophication and global climate change. The New Zealand Ministry of Health has recently developed national criteria for assessing and managing the risk of toxic cyanobacteria in drinking-water supplies. This paper investigates a cyanobacterial bloom incident in the summer 2002/03 in the Waikato River and hydro lakes, which are a major drinking-water supply for Hamilton City and many other smaller towns along the river. The procedures invoked by the Hamilton City Council and other authorities to deal with this bloom event are considered in terms of the best practice of the day and compared with the Drinking-Water Standards for New Zealand 2005. The presence of cyanobacteria has significant economic effects because of increases in water supply treatment costs or the need to use an alternative source, and there are also social effects from the disruption of recreational use of water bodies and loss of confidence in the quality of reticulated, treated water supplies. Notional evaluation of economic cost of monitoring regimes and control, based on the Waikato River cyanobacterial bloom incident, is also given. The multi-barrier and process-control risk management approach, reliant on good vertical communication systems between central and local government, is an advanced approach useful for any country that regularly experiences cyanobacterial problems.

  12. A Risk-Based Approach for Aerothermal/TPS Analysis and Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, Michael J.; Grinstead, Jay H.; Bose, Deepak

    2007-01-01

    The current status of aerothermal and thermal protection system modeling for civilian entry missions is reviewed. For most such missions, the accuracy of our simulations is limited not by the tools and processes currently employed, but rather by reducible deficiencies in the underlying physical models. Improving the accuracy of and reducing the uncertainties in these models will enable a greater understanding of the system level impacts of a particular thermal protection system and of the system operation and risk over the operational life of the system. A strategic plan will be laid out by which key modeling deficiencies can be identified via mission-specific gap analysis. Once these gaps have been identified, the driving component uncertainties are determined via sensitivity analyses. A Monte-Carlo based methodology is presented for physics-based probabilistic uncertainty analysis of aerothermodynamics and thermal protection system material response modeling. These data are then used to advocate for and plan focused testing aimed at reducing key uncertainties. The results of these tests are used to validate or modify existing physical models. Concurrently, a testing methodology is outlined for thermal protection materials. The proposed approach is based on using the results of uncertainty/sensitivity analyses discussed above to tailor ground testing so as to best identify and quantify system performance and risk drivers. A key component of this testing is understanding the relationship between the test and flight environments. No existing ground test facility can simultaneously replicate all aspects of the flight environment, and therefore good models for traceability to flight are critical to ensure a low risk, high reliability thermal protection system design. Finally, the role of flight testing in the overall thermal protection system development strategy is discussed.

  13. Risk-based approach for systematic development of gastroretentive drug delivery system.

    PubMed

    Mirani, A G; Patankar, S P; Kadam, V J

    2016-10-01

    The research envisioned was the development of diltiazem hydrochloride effervescent floating matrix tablet using a risk-based approach. Preliminarily, the in vitro drug release profile was derived which theoretically simulated the in vivo condition after oral administration. Considering this as a rationale, the formulation development was initiated with defining the quality target product profile (QTPP) and critical quality attributes (CQAs). The preliminary studies were conducted to screen material attributes and process parameters followed by their risk assessment studies to select the plausible factors affecting the drug product CQAs, i.e., floating lag time and drug release profile. A 3(2) full factorial design was used to estimate the effect of the amount of swelling polymer (X 1) and gas-generating agent (X 2) on percent drug release (Q t1h and Q t8h) and floating lag time. Response and interaction plots were generated to examine the variables. Selection of an optimized formulation was done using desirability function and further validated. The model diagnostic plots represent the absence of outliers. The optimized formula obtained by the software was further validated, and the result of drug release and floating lag time was close to the predicted values. In a clear and concise way, the current investigations report the successful development of an effervescent floating matrix tablet for twice daily administration of diltiazem hydrochloride.

  14. Selection of the method to appraise and compare health systems using risk stratification: the ASSEHS approach.

    PubMed

    Mora, J; De Massari, D; Pauws, S; op den Buijs, J; David, M; Prieto, L; Contel, J; Martí, T; Bousquet, J; de Manuel, E

    2015-12-01

    To face the challenge of active and healthy ageing, European Health Systems and services should move towards proactive, anticipatory and integrated care. The comparison of methods to combine results across studies and to determine an overall effect was undertaken by the EU project ASSEHS (Activation of Stratification Strategies and Results of the interventions on frail patients of Healthcare Services, EU project (No. 2013 12 04). The questions raised in ASSEHS are broad and involve a complex body of literature. Thus, systematic reviews are not appropriate. The most appropriate method appears to be scoping studies. In this paper, an updated method of scoping studies has been used to determine the questions needed to appraise the health systems and services for frailty in the ageing population. Three objectives were set (i) to detect a relevant number of risk stratification tools for frailty and identify the best-in-class, (ii) to understand the feasibility of introducing stratification tools and identify the difficulties of the process and (iii) to find evidence on the impact of risk stratification in Health Services. This novel approach may provide greater clarity about scoping study methodology and help enhance the methodological rigor with which authors undertake and report scoping studies.

  15. Cumulative health risk assessment: integrated approaches for multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects

    SciTech Connect

    Rice, Glenn; Teuschler, Linda; MacDonel, Margaret; Butler, Jim; Finster, Molly; Hertzberg, Rick; Harou, Lynne

    2007-07-01

    Available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: As information about environmental contamination has increased in recent years, so has public interest in the combined effects of multiple contaminants. This interest has been highlighted by recent tragedies such as the World Trade Center disaster and hurricane Katrina. In fact, assessing multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects has long been an issue for contaminated sites, including U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) legacy waste sites. Local citizens have explicitly asked the federal government to account for cumulative risks, with contaminants moving offsite via groundwater flow, surface runoff, and air dispersal being a common emphasis. Multiple exposures range from ingestion and inhalation to dermal absorption and external gamma irradiation. Three types of concerns can lead to cumulative assessments: (1) specific sources or releases - e.g., industrial facilities or accidental discharges; (2) contaminant levels - in environmental media or human tissues; and (3) elevated rates of disease - e.g., asthma or cancer. The specific initiator frames the assessment strategy, including a determination of appropriate models to be used. Approaches are being developed to better integrate a variety of data, extending from environmental to internal co-location of contaminants and combined effects, to support more practical assessments of cumulative health risks. (authors)

  16. Toxicovigilance: A new approach for the hazard identification and risk assessment of toxicants in human beings

    SciTech Connect

    Descotes, Jacques . E-mail: jacques-georges.descotes@chu-lyon.fr; Testud, Francois

    2005-09-01

    The concept of toxicovigilance encompasses the active detection, validation and follow-up of clinical adverse events related to toxic exposures in human beings. Poison centers are key players in this function as poisoning statistics are essential to define the cause, incidence and severity of poisonings occurring in the general population. In addition, the systematic search for unexpected shifts in the recorded causes of poisonings, e.g., following the introduction of a new product, or change in the formulation or recommended use of an old product, allows for a rapid detection of potential adverse health consequences and the implementation of preventive or corrective measures. However, toxicovigilance is genuinely a medical and not only a statistical approach of human toxicity issues. In contrast to epidemiology, toxicovigilance is based on the in-depth medical assessment of acute or chronic intoxications on an individual basis, which requires detailed information that poison centers can rarely obtain via emergency telephone calls and that epidemiologists cannot collect or process. Validation of this medical information must primarily be based on toxicological expertise to help identify causal links between otherwise unexplained pathological conditions and documented toxic exposures. Thus, toxicovigilance can contribute to hazard identification and risk assessment by providing medically validated data which are often overlooked in the process of risk assessment. So far, very few structured toxicovigilance systems have been set up and hopefully national and international initiatives will bridge this gap in our knowledge of the toxicity of many chemicals and commercial products in human beings.

  17. A new approach to a damage risk criterion for weapons impulses.

    PubMed

    Price, G R; Kalb, J T

    1991-01-01

    Existing damage-risk criteria for weapons impulses suffer from their lack of a theoretical basis, thereby limiting their generalizability and utility. Furthermore, a number of studies now indicate that they may be inaccurate for impulses with energy in the low frequency region (Dancer & al., 1985; Patterson & al., 1985; Price & al., 1989). We have approached the problem by modeling the ear mathematically as a means of gaining insight into the loss processes. In the model, the external and middle ears are linear at lower intensities; however, the stapes displacement is limited to 20 microns, as would be expected on anatomical/physical grounds. Susceptibility, in the inner ear, is modeled as mechanical stress, a function of basilar membrane displacement and number of flex cycles. The model, which is executable on a PC-based computer, reproduces the data on the ear that can be measured at lower intensities. It also ranks the known hazard from impulses in the correct order, explains the finding of loss in mid-cochlea regardless of spectral location of the weapons impulse, and suggests that the greatest hazard comes from that portion of the acoustic wave in which pressures cross through ambient and at a rate consistent with energy in the mid-range. Because the model is theoretically based, it has the potential for use as the basis for a damage risk criterion for impulse noise as well as for a design criterion for weapons.

  18. Using the weight-of-evidence approach for ecological risk assessment at a DOE facility

    SciTech Connect

    Hull, R.N.; Suter, G.W.

    1994-12-31

    The Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PORTS), an uranium enrichment plant, has released various contaminants into the environment. An ecological risk assessment is underway for the site, which includes an evaluation of Little Beaver Creek, which flows along the eastern and northern sides of PORTS. For this assessment, the creek was divided into reaches which were defined in terms of contaminant sources. This creek receives contaminants from permitted outfalls, groundwater discharge, non-point sources, and accidental releases. Metal contamination is the major concern at the site. Receptors include the fish and benthic communities in the creek, and soil invertebrates and plants in the floodplain. A weight-of-evidence approach was used to evaluate risks to those receptors, based on chemical analyses, toxicity tests and field surveys. The fish and benthic communities are impacted on Little Beaver Creek in a reach near a permitted discharge, with improvements seen downstream of this location. Ambient water, sediment and soil samples were not toxic to laboratory organisms. Either these toxicity tests were not sufficiently sensitive to detect toxicity, or the observed changes in the aquatic communities did not result from toxicity. Because conditions improved downstream from the permitted discharge, it was concluded that this is the major source of toxicity in the creek.

  19. [Application and benefit evaluation of tiered health risk assessment approach on site contaminated by benzene].

    PubMed

    Jiang, Lin; Zhong, Mao-Sheng; Liang, Jin; Yao, Jue-Jun; Xia, Tian-Xiang; Fan, Yan-Ling; Li, Jing-Dong; Tang, Zheng-Qiang

    2013-03-01

    The procedures of implementing tiered health risk assessment approach were introduced in detail, and took a large-scale site polluted by benzene in Beijing as an example, the difference on the remediation target of benzene in soil, as well as the corresponding soil remediation volume and costs, were compared. The results indicate that the benzene concentration in soil within 1.5 m in depth and the one below should be remediated to 0.26 mg x kg(-1) and 0.15 mg x kg(-1), respectively, in order to keep the cumulative carcinogenic health risk below 1 x 10(-6) based on tiered II assessment. However, according to tiered III assessment result, which is based on the benzene in soil gas within the contaminated areas in the investigated site, the soil in the corresponding depth should only be remediated to 2.6 mg x kg(-1) and 1.5 mg x kg(-1), respectively. That means the soil remediation volume delimited on tiered III assessment result is less than the one on tiered II by 139 537 m3 and the corresponding remediation costs will be reduced by 57 million Yuan, meaning the enormous economic benefits compared to the costs (around 100 thousands Yuan) spent to carry out tiered III assessment in the site.

  20. An obesity/cardiometabolic risk reduction disease management program: a population-based approach.

    PubMed

    Villagra, Victor G

    2009-04-01

    Obesity is a critical health concern that has captured the attention of public and private healthcare payers who are interested in controlling costs and mitigating the long-term economic consequences of the obesity epidemic. Population-based approaches to obesity management have been proposed that take advantage of a chronic care model (CCM), including patient self-care, the use of community-based resources, and the realization of care continuity through ongoing communications with patients, information technology, and public policy changes. Payer-sponsored disease management programs represent an important conduit to delivering population-based care founded on similar CCM concepts. Disease management is founded on population-based disease identification, evidence-based care protocols, and collaborative practices between clinicians. While substantial clinician training, technology infrastructure commitments, and financial support at the payer level will be needed for the success of disease management programs in obesity and cardiometabolic risk reduction, these barriers can be overcome with the proper commitment. Disease management programs represent an important tool to combat the growing societal risks of overweight and obesity.

  1. Electric vehicle (EV) storage supply chain risk and the energy market: A micro and macroeconomic risk management approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aguilar, Susanna D.

    As a cost effective storage technology for renewable energy sources, Electric Vehicles can be integrated into energy grids. Integration must be optimized to ascertain that renewable energy is available through storage when demand exists so that cost of electricity is minimized. Optimization models can address economic risks associated with the EV supply chain- particularly the volatility in availability and cost of critical materials used in the manufacturing of EV motors and batteries. Supply chain risk can reflect itself in a shortage of storage, which can increase the price of electricity. We propose a micro-and macroeconomic framework for managing supply chain risk through utilization of a cost optimization model in combination with risk management strategies at the microeconomic and macroeconomic level. The study demonstrates how risk from the EVs vehicle critical material supply chain affects manufacturers, smart grid performance, and energy markets qualitatively and quantitatively. Our results illustrate how risk in the EV supply chain affects EV availability and the cost of ancillary services, and how EV critical material supply chain risk can be mitigated through managerial strategies and policy.

  2. 'Weather Value at Risk': A uniform approach to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change.

    PubMed

    Prettenthaler, Franz; Köberl, Judith; Bird, David Neil

    2016-02-01

    We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures. PMID:25929802

  3. 'Weather Value at Risk': A uniform approach to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change.

    PubMed

    Prettenthaler, Franz; Köberl, Judith; Bird, David Neil

    2016-02-01

    We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures.

  4. Closing the research loop: a risk-based approach for communicating results of air pollution exposure studies.

    PubMed Central

    Payne-Sturges, Devon C; Schwab, Margo; Buckley, Timothy J

    2004-01-01

    Communities have long been concerned about the environmental health and environmental quality of their neighborhoods. Community-based exposure assessments have the potential to be an effective way to address these concerns. The success of such studies depends critically on the effective translation and communication of study results back to the study participants and the community. In this article we describe the communication approach applied as part of the South Baltimo