Wave heating of the solar atmosphere

PubMed Central

Arregui, Iñigo

2015-01-01

Magnetic waves are a relevant component in the dynamics of the solar atmosphere. Their significance has increased because of their potential as a remote diagnostic tool and their presumed contribution to plasma heating processes. We discuss our current understanding of coronal heating by magnetic waves, based on recent observational evidence and theoretical advances. The discussion starts with a selection of observational discoveries that have brought magnetic waves to the forefront of the coronal heating discussion. Then, our theoretical understanding of the nature and properties of the observed waves and the physical processes that have been proposed to explain observations are described. Particular attention is given to the sequence of processes that link observed wave characteristics with concealed energy transport, dissipation and heat conversion. We conclude with a commentary on how the combination of theory and observations should help us to understand and quantify magnetic wave heating of the solar atmosphere. PMID:25897091

Heat Wave and Mortality: A Multicountry, Multicommunity Study

PubMed Central

Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben G.; Tawatsupa, Benjawan; Tobias, Aurelio; Lavigne, Eric; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Pan, Xiaochuan; Kim, Ho; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Wu, Chang-Fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel D.; Bell, Michelle L.; Scortichini, Matteo; Michelozzi, Paola; Punnasiri, Kornwipa; Li, Shanshan; Tian, Linwei; Garcia, Samuel David Osorio; Seposo, Xerxes; Overcenco, Ala; Zeka, Ariana; Goodman, Patrick; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Dung, Do Van; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Williams, Gail; Tong, Shilu

2017-01-01

Background: Few studies have examined variation in the associations between heat waves and mortality in an international context. Objectives: We aimed to systematically examine the impacts of heat waves on mortality with lag effects internationally. Methods: We collected daily data of temperature and mortality from 400 communities in 18 countries/regions and defined 12 types of heat waves by combining community-specific daily mean temperature ≥90th, 92.5th, 95th, and 97.5th percentiles of temperature with duration ≥2, 3, and 4 d. We used time-series analyses to estimate the community-specific heat wave–mortality relation over lags of 0–10 d. Then, we applied meta-analysis to pool heat wave effects at the country level for cumulative and lag effects for each type of heat wave definition. Results: Heat waves of all definitions had significant cumulative associations with mortality in all countries, but varied by community. The higher the temperature threshold used to define heat waves, the higher heat wave associations on mortality. However, heat wave duration did not modify the impacts. The association between heat waves and mortality appeared acutely and lasted for 3 and 4 d. Heat waves had higher associations with mortality in moderate cold and moderate hot areas than cold and hot areas. There were no added effects of heat waves on mortality in all countries/regions, except for Brazil, Moldova, and Taiwan. Heat waves defined by daily mean and maximum temperatures produced similar heat wave–mortality associations, but not daily minimum temperature. Conclusions: Results indicate that high temperatures create a substantial health burden, and effects of high temperatures over consecutive days are similar to what would be experienced if high temperature days occurred independently. People living in moderate cold and moderate hot areas are more sensitive to heat waves than those living in cold and hot areas. Daily mean and maximum temperatures had similar

Ion Bernstein wave heating research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ono, Masayuki

1993-02-01

Ion Bernstein wave heating (IBWH) utilizes the ion Bernstein wave (IBW), a hot plasma wave, to carry the radio frequency (rf) power to heat the tokamak reactor core. Earlier wave accessibility studies have shown that this finite-Larmor-radius (FLR) mode should penetrate into a hot dense reactor plasma core without significant attenuation. Moreover, the IBW's low perpendicular phase velocity (ω/k⊥≊VTi≪Vα) greatly reduces the otherwise serious wave absorption by the 3.5 MeV fusion α particles. In addition, the property of IBW's that k⊥ρi≊1 makes localized bulk ion heating possible at the ion cyclotron harmonic layers. Such bulk ion heating can prove useful in optimizing fusion reactivity. In another vein, with proper selection of parameters, IBW's can be made subject to strong localized electron Landau damping near the major ion cyclotron harmonic resonance layers. This property can be useful, for example, for rf current drive in the reactor plasma core. IBW's can be excited with loop antennas or with a lower-hybrid-like waveguide launcher at the plasma edge, the latter structure being one that is especially compatible with reactor application. In either case, the mode at the plasma edge is an electron plasma wave (EPW). Deeper in the plasma, the EPW is mode transformed into an IBW. Such launching and mode transformation of IBW's were first demonstrated in experiments in the Advanced Concepts Torus-1 (ACT-1) [Phys. Rev. Lett. 45, 1105 (1980)] plasma torus and in particle simulation calculations. These and other aspects of IBW heating physics have been investigated through a number of experiments performed on ACT-1, the Japanese Institute of Plasma Physics Tokamak II-Upgrade (JIPPTII-U) [Phys. Rev. Lett. 54, 2339 (1985)], the Tokyo University Non-Circular Tokamak (TNT) [Nucl. Fusion 26, 1097 (1986)], the Princeton Large Tokamak (PLT) [Phys. Rev. Lett. 60, 294 (1988)], and Alcator-C [Phys. Rev. Lett. 60, 298 (1988)]. In these experiments both linear and

Identifying Heat Waves in Florida: Considerations of Missing Weather Data.

PubMed

Leary, Emily; Young, Linda J; DuClos, Chris; Jordan, Melissa M

2015-01-01

Using current climate models, regional-scale changes for Florida over the next 100 years are predicted to include warming over terrestrial areas and very likely increases in the number of high temperature extremes. No uniform definition of a heat wave exists. Most past research on heat waves has focused on evaluating the aftermath of known heat waves, with minimal consideration of missing exposure information. To identify and discuss methods of handling and imputing missing weather data and how those methods can affect identified periods of extreme heat in Florida. In addition to ignoring missing data, temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal models are described and utilized to impute missing historical weather data from 1973 to 2012 from 43 Florida weather monitors. Calculated thresholds are used to define periods of extreme heat across Florida. Modeling of missing data and imputing missing values can affect the identified periods of extreme heat, through the missing data itself or through the computed thresholds. The differences observed are related to the amount of missingness during June, July, and August, the warmest months of the warm season (April through September). Missing data considerations are important when defining periods of extreme heat. Spatio-temporal methods are recommended for data imputation. A heat wave definition that incorporates information from all monitors is advised.

Future Heat Waves in Paris Metropolitan Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beaulant, A.; Lemonsu, A.; Somot, S.; Masson, V.

2010-12-01

Cities are particularly vulnerable to heat waves, firstly because they concentrate the majority of the population and, secondly because the heat island that characterizes the urban climate exacerbates heat wave effects. This work is part of the interdisciplinary VURCA project (Vulnerability of cities to heat waves), which deals with the evolution of heat wave events in the context of global warming, urban vulnerability and adaptation strategies. The aim of this study is to analyse urban heat wave events in present climate (1950-2009) and their evolution in an enhanced greenhouse gazes future climate (2010-2100). We used daily observations of temperature from several stations covering Paris metropolitan area and climate projections following three different IPCC-SRES scenarios (B1, A1B, A2) and issued from several ENSEMBLES regional climate models. The heat wave definition is based on the indexes of the operational French warning system. A heat wave is detected within observed or simulated time-series by a heat wave peak, when the temperatures exceed the value of the 99.9th percentile. Its duration is determined by all adjacent days to this peak, for which the temperatures are not durably smaller than the 99.9th percentile value minus 2 °C. The 99.9th percentile threshold is inferred from quantile-quantile plots produced for each climate model in comparison with observations for the reference period 1950-2000. Heat waves have been extracted within observations and 12 climatic simulations. The number of heat wave events and cumulated HW days per year have been calculated, the maximum being seven heat waves cumulating more than 60 HW days in one year in the case of the A2 scenario and until 50 days in the case of the more moderate A1B scenario. From 2050, the occurrence of three or four HW events per year is becoming the norm all scenarios taken together. The evolution of heat wave features has been analysed, highlighting the large variability of the climatic

Humid Heat Waves at different warming levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, S.; Sillmann, J.; Sterl, A.

2017-12-01

The co-occurrence of consecutive hot and humid days during a heat wave can strongly affect human health. Here, we quantify humid heat wave hazard in the recent past and at different levels of global warming.We find that the magnitude and apparent temperature peak of heat waves, such as the ones observed in Chicago in 1995 and China in 2003, have been strongly amplified by humidity. Climate model projections suggest that the percentage of area where heat wave magnitude and peak are amplified by humidity increases with increasing warming levels. Considering the effect of humidity at 1.5o and 2o global warming, highly populated regions, such as the Eastern US and China, could experience heat waves with magnitude greater than the one in Russia in 2010 (the most severe of the present era).The apparent temperature peak during such humid-heat waves can be greater than 55o. According to the US Weather Service, at this temperature humans are very likely to suffer from heat strokes. Humid-heat waves with these conditions were never exceeded in the present climate, but are expected to occur every other year at 4o global warming. This calls for respective adaptation measures in some key regions of the world along with international climate change mitigation efforts.

An analysis of heat wave trends using heat index in East Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suparta, W.; Yatim, A. N. M.

2017-05-01

This paper aimed to investigate the heat wave trends in East Malaysia based on the National Weather Services (NWS) Heat Index. The heat index was calculated by using mean temperature and mean relative humidity on monthly basis for 5 meteorological stations in East Malaysia during the period 2008 to 2010. The trends for heat wave were estimated from Heat Index based on the least square regression analysis at each station level. Results showed that the heat wave trends are increasing at all stations. The highest heat index was occurred in Sandakan on July 2010 with heat index 35°C while the lowest heat index happened at Kuching in January 2009 with 27.3°C. From the heat wave observed, East Malaysia is still in caution categories or normal condition (27°C-32°C) and the extreme caution (32°C-41°C) was observed during southwest monsoon (May-July). The safety condition of heat waves in East Malaysia is possibly due to weak to moderate El Nino occurred during the period of observation.

Heat, Heat Waves, and Hospital Admissions among the Elderly in the United States, 1992–2006

PubMed Central

Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel D.; Wellenius, Gregory A.; O’Neill, Marie S.

2014-01-01

Background: Heat-wave frequency, intensity, and duration are increasing with global climate change. The association between heat and mortality in the elderly is well documented, but less is known regarding associations with hospital admissions. Objectives: Our goal was to determine associations between moderate and extreme heat, heat waves, and hospital admissions for nonaccidental causes among Medicare beneficiaries ≥ 65 years of age in 114 cities across five U.S. climate zones. Methods: We used Medicare inpatient billing records and city-specific data on temperature, humidity, and ozone from 1992 through 2006 in a time-stratified case-crossover design to estimate the association between hospitalization and moderate [90th percentile of apparent temperature (AT)] and extreme (99th percentile of AT) heat and heat waves (AT above the 95th percentile over 2–8 days). In sensitivity analyses, we additionally considered confounding by ozone and holidays, different temperature metrics, and alternate models of the exposure–response relationship. Results: Associations between moderate heat and hospital admissions were minimal, but extreme heat was associated with a 3% (95% CI: 2%, 4%) increase in all-cause hospital admissions over the subsequent 8 days. In cause-specific analyses, extreme heat was associated with increased hospitalizations for renal (15%; 95% CI: 9%, 21%) and respiratory (4%; 95% CI: 2%, 7%) diseases, but not for cardiovascular diseases. An added heat-wave effect was observed for renal and respiratory admissions. Conclusion: Extreme heat is associated with increased hospital admissions, particularly for renal causes, among the elderly in the United States. Citation: Gronlund CJ, Zanobetti A, Schwartz JD, Wellenius GA, O’Neill MS. 2014. Heat, heat waves, and hospital admissions among the elderly in the United States, 1992–2006. Environ Health Perspect 122:1187–1192; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1206132 PMID:24905551

Identifying Heat Waves in Florida: Considerations of Missing Weather Data

PubMed Central

Leary, Emily; Young, Linda J.; DuClos, Chris; Jordan, Melissa M.

2015-01-01

Background Using current climate models, regional-scale changes for Florida over the next 100 years are predicted to include warming over terrestrial areas and very likely increases in the number of high temperature extremes. No uniform definition of a heat wave exists. Most past research on heat waves has focused on evaluating the aftermath of known heat waves, with minimal consideration of missing exposure information. Objectives To identify and discuss methods of handling and imputing missing weather data and how those methods can affect identified periods of extreme heat in Florida. Methods In addition to ignoring missing data, temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal models are described and utilized to impute missing historical weather data from 1973 to 2012 from 43 Florida weather monitors. Calculated thresholds are used to define periods of extreme heat across Florida. Results Modeling of missing data and imputing missing values can affect the identified periods of extreme heat, through the missing data itself or through the computed thresholds. The differences observed are related to the amount of missingness during June, July, and August, the warmest months of the warm season (April through September). Conclusions Missing data considerations are important when defining periods of extreme heat. Spatio-temporal methods are recommended for data imputation. A heat wave definition that incorporates information from all monitors is advised. PMID:26619198

Heat waves and their significance for a temperate benthic community: A near-natural experimental approach.

PubMed

Pansch, Christian; Scotti, Marco; Barboza, Francisco R; Al-Janabi, Balsam; Brakel, Janina; Briski, Elizabeta; Bucholz, Björn; Franz, Markus; Ito, Maysa; Paiva, Filipa; Saha, Mahasweta; Sawall, Yvonne; Weinberger, Florian; Wahl, Martin

2018-04-23

Climate change will not only shift environmental means but will also increase the intensity of extreme events, exerting additional stress on ecosystems. While field observations on the ecological consequences of heat waves are emerging, experimental evidence is rare, and lacking at the community level. Using a novel "near-natural" outdoor mesocosms approach, this study tested whether marine summer heat waves have detrimental consequences for macrofauna of a temperate coastal community, and whether sequential heat waves provoke an increase or decrease of sensitivity to thermal stress. Three treatments were applied, defined and characterized through a statistical analysis of 15 years of temperature records from the experimental site: (1) no heat wave, (2) two heat waves in June and July followed by a summer heat wave in August and (3) the summer heat wave only. Overall, 50% of the species showed positive, negative or positive/negative responses in either abundance and/or biomass. We highlight four possible ways in which single species responded to either three subsequent heat waves or one summer heat wave: (1) absence of a response (tolerance, 50% of species), (2) negative accumulative effects by three subsequent heat waves (tellinid bivalve), (3) buffering by proceeding heat waves due to acclimation and/or shifts in phenology (spionid polychaete) and (4) an accumulative positive effect by subsequent heat waves (amphipod). The differential responses to single or sequential heat waves at the species level entailed shifts at the community level. Community-level differences between single and triple heat waves were more pronounced than those between regimes with vs. without heat waves. Detritivory was reduced by the single heat wave while suspension feeding was less common in the triple heat wave regime. Critical extreme events occur already today and will occur more frequently in a changing climate, thus, leading to detrimental impacts on coastal marine systems. �

The role of local heating in the 2015 Indian Heat Wave.

PubMed

Ghatak, Debjani; Zaitchik, Benjamin; Hain, Christopher; Anderson, Martha

2017-08-09

India faced a major heat wave during the summer of 2015. Temperature anomalies peaked in the dry period before the onset of the summer monsoon, suggesting that local land-atmosphere feedbacks involving desiccated soils and vegetation might have played a role in driving the heat extreme. Upon examination of in situ data, reanalysis, satellite observations, and land surface models, we find that the heat wave included two distinct peaks: one in late May, and a second in early June. During the first peak we find that clear skies led to a positive net radiation anomaly at the surface, but there is no significant sensible heat flux anomaly within the core of the heat wave affected region. By the time of the second peak, however, soil moisture had dropped to anomalously low levels in the core heat wave region, net surface radiation was anomalously high, and a significant positive sensible heat flux anomaly developed. This led to a substantial local forcing on air temperature that contributed to the intensity of the event. The analysis indicates that the highly agricultural landscape of North and Central India can reinforce heat extremes under dry conditions.

Using Forecast and Observed Weather Data to Assess Performance of Forecast Products in Identifying Heat Waves and Estimating Heat Wave Effects on Mortality

PubMed Central

Chen, Yeh-Hsin; Schwartz, Joel D.; Rood, Richard B.; O’Neill, Marie S.

2014-01-01

Background: Heat wave and health warning systems are activated based on forecasts of health-threatening hot weather. Objective: We estimated heat–mortality associations based on forecast and observed weather data in Detroit, Michigan, and compared the accuracy of forecast products for predicting heat waves. Methods: We derived and compared apparent temperature (AT) and heat wave days (with heat waves defined as ≥ 2 days of daily mean AT ≥ 95th percentile of warm-season average) from weather observations and six different forecast products. We used Poisson regression with and without adjustment for ozone and/or PM10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm) to estimate and compare associations of daily all-cause mortality with observed and predicted AT and heat wave days. Results: The 1-day-ahead forecast of a local operational product, Revised Digital Forecast, had about half the number of false positives compared with all other forecasts. On average, controlling for heat waves, days with observed AT = 25.3°C were associated with 3.5% higher mortality (95% CI: –1.6, 8.8%) than days with AT = 8.5°C. Observed heat wave days were associated with 6.2% higher mortality (95% CI: –0.4, 13.2%) than non–heat wave days. The accuracy of predictions varied, but associations between mortality and forecast heat generally tended to overestimate heat effects, whereas associations with forecast heat waves tended to underestimate heat wave effects, relative to associations based on observed weather metrics. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that incorporating knowledge of local conditions may improve the accuracy of predictions used to activate heat wave and health warning systems. Citation: Zhang K, Chen YH, Schwartz JD, Rood RB, O’Neill MS. 2014. Using forecast and observed weather data to assess performance of forecast products in identifying heat waves and estimating heat wave effects on mortality. Environ Health Perspect 122:912–918;�

Quantification and assessment of heat and cold waves in Novi Sad, Northern Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basarin, Biljana; Lukić, Tin; Matzarakis, Andreas

2016-01-01

Physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) has been applied to the analysis of heat and cold waves and human thermal conditions in Novi Sad, Serbia. A series of daily minimum and maximum air temperature, relative humidity, wind, and cloud cover was used to calculate PET for the investigated period 1949-2012. The heat and cold wave analysis was carried out on days with PET values exceeding defined thresholds. Additionally, the acclimatization approach was introduced to evaluate human adaptation to interannual thermal perception. Trend analysis has revealed the presence of increasing trend in summer PET anomalies, number of days above defined threshold, number of heat waves, and average duration of heat waves per year since 1981. Moreover, winter PET anomaly as well as the number of days below certain threshold and number of cold waves per year until 1980 was decreasing, but the decrease was not statistically significant. The highest number of heat waves during summer was registered in the last two decades, but also in the first decade of the investigated period. On the other hand, the number of cold waves during six decades is quite similar and the differences are very small.

Quantification and assessment of heat and cold waves in Novi Sad, Northern Serbia.

PubMed

Basarin, Biljana; Lukić, Tin; Matzarakis, Andreas

2016-01-01

Physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) has been applied to the analysis of heat and cold waves and human thermal conditions in Novi Sad, Serbia. A series of daily minimum and maximum air temperature, relative humidity, wind, and cloud cover was used to calculate PET for the investigated period 1949-2012. The heat and cold wave analysis was carried out on days with PET values exceeding defined thresholds. Additionally, the acclimatization approach was introduced to evaluate human adaptation to interannual thermal perception. Trend analysis has revealed the presence of increasing trend in summer PET anomalies, number of days above defined threshold, number of heat waves, and average duration of heat waves per year since 1981. Moreover, winter PET anomaly as well as the number of days below certain threshold and number of cold waves per year until 1980 was decreasing, but the decrease was not statistically significant. The highest number of heat waves during summer was registered in the last two decades, but also in the first decade of the investigated period. On the other hand, the number of cold waves during six decades is quite similar and the differences are very small.

More Intense Mega Heat Waves in the Warmer World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, G.; Robinson, D. A.

2017-12-01

In this study, changes in the occurrences of heat waves on the globe since the mid- 20th century and the synoptic characteristics of mega heat waves at regional scales in the warmer climate are examined. The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis surface data show that there have been no obvious linear changes in the heat wave frequencies at the continental scales since the mid-20th century, but amplified interdecadal variations led to unprecedented intense heat waves in the recent decades at the regional scales. Such mega heat waves have been more frequently observed in the poleward subtropical climate belts as well as in the interior region of continents. According to the analyses of upper tropospheric data, the occurrences of more intense mega heat waves since the late 20th century may be associated with the expansion of subtropical high pressures. These results suggest that populous cities near the subtropical climate zones should provide proactive mega heat wave warning systems for residents due to their vulnerability to the sudden attack of human lives harvest by mega heat waves in the warmer 21st century.

Warming set stage for deadly heat wave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Colin

2012-04-01

In the summer of 2010, soaring temperatures and widespread forest fires ravaged western Russia, killing 55,000 and causing $15 billion in economic losses. In the wake of the record-setting heat wave, two studies sought to identify the contribution that human activities made to the event. One showed that temperatures seen during the deadly heat wave fell within the bounds of natural variability, while another attributed the heat wave to human activity, arguing that anthropogenic warming increased the chance of record-breaking temperatures occurring. Merging the stances of both studies, Otto et al. sought to show that while human contributions to climate change did not necessarily cause the deadly heat wave, they did play a role in setting the stage for its occurrence. Using an ensemble of climate simulations, the authors assessed the expected magnitude and frequency of an event like the 2010 heat wave under both 1960s and 2000s environmental conditions. The authors found that although the average temperature in July 2010 was 5°C higher than the average July temperature from the past half decade, the deadly heat wave was within the natural variability of 1960s, as well as 2000s, climate conditions

Probability of US Heat Waves Affected by a Subseasonal Planetary Wave Pattern

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teng, Haiyan; Branstator, Grant; Wang, Hailan; Meehl, Gerald A.; Washington, Warren M.

2013-01-01

Heat waves are thought to result from subseasonal atmospheric variability. Atmospheric phenomena driven by tropical convection, such as the Asian monsoon, have been considered potential sources of predictability on subseasonal timescales. Mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics have been considered too chaotic to allow significant prediction skill of lead times beyond the typical 10-day range of weather forecasts. Here we use a 12,000-year integration of an atmospheric general circulation model to identify a pattern of subseasonal atmospheric variability that can help improve forecast skill for heat waves in the United States. We find that heat waves tend to be preceded by 15-20 days by a pattern of anomalous atmospheric planetary waves with a wavenumber of 5. This circulation pattern can arise as a result of internal atmospheric dynamics and is not necessarily linked to tropical heating.We conclude that some mid-latitude circulation anomalies that increase the probability of heat waves are predictable beyond the typical weather forecast range.

Time-series Analysis of Heat Waves and Emergency Department Visits in Atlanta, 1993 to 2012.

PubMed

Chen, Tianqi; Sarnat, Stefanie E; Grundstein, Andrew J; Winquist, Andrea; Chang, Howard H

2017-05-31

Heat waves are extreme weather events that have been associated with adverse health outcomes. However, there is limited knowledge of heat waves' impact on population morbidity, such as emergency department (ED) visits. We investigated associations between heat waves and ED visits for 17 outcomes in Atlanta over a 20-year period, 1993-2012. Associations were estimated using Poisson log-linear models controlling for continuous air temperature, dew-point temperature, day of week, holidays, and time trends. We defined heat waves as periods of consecutive days with temperatures beyond the 98th percentile of the temperature distribution over the period from 1945-2012. We considered six heat wave definitions using maximum, minimum, and average air temperatures and apparent temperatures. Associations by heat wave characteristics were examined. Among all outcome-heat wave combinations, associations were strongest between ED visits for acute renal failure and heat waves defined by maximum apparent temperature at lag 0 [relative risk (RR) = 1.15; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-1.29], ED visits for ischemic stroke and heat waves defined by minimum temperature at lag 0 (RR = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.02-1.17), and ED visits for intestinal infection and heat waves defined by average temperature at lag 1 (RR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.00-1.21). ED visits for all internal causes were associated with heat waves defined by maximum temperature at lag 1 (RR = 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.04). Heat waves can confer additional risks of ED visits beyond those of daily air temperature, even in a region with high air-conditioning prevalence. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP44.

Heat Wave Changes in the Eastern Mediterranean since 1960

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuglitsch, Franz G.; Toreti, Andrea; Xoplaki, Elena; Della-Marta, Paul M.; Zerefos, Christos S.; Türkes, Murat; Luterbacher, Jürg

2010-05-01

Heat waves have discernible impacts on mortality and morbidity, infrastructure, agricultural resources, the retail industry, ecosystem and tourism and consequently affect human societies. A new definition of socially relevant heat waves is presented and applied to new data sets of high-quality homogenized daily maximum and minimum summer air temperature series from 246 stations in the eastern Mediterranean region (including Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, Turkey). Changes in heat wave number, length and intensity between 1960 and 2006 are quantified. Daily temperature homogeneity analysis suggest that many instrumental measurements in the 1960s are warm-biased, correcting for these biases regionally averaged heat wave trends are up to 8% higher. We find significant changes across the western Balkans, southwestern and western Turkey, and along the southern Black Sea coastline. Since the 1960s, the mean heat wave intensity, heat wave length and heat wave number across the eastern Mediterranean region have increased by a factor 7.6 ±1.3, 7.5 ±1.3 and 6.2 ±1.1, respectively. These findings suggest that the heat wave increase in this region is higher than previously reported.

Increasing probability of mortality during Indian heat waves.

PubMed

Mazdiyasni, Omid; AghaKouchak, Amir; Davis, Steven J; Madadgar, Shahrbanou; Mehran, Ali; Ragno, Elisa; Sadegh, Mojtaba; Sengupta, Ashmita; Ghosh, Subimal; Dhanya, C T; Niknejad, Mohsen

2017-06-01

Rising global temperatures are causing increases in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events, such as floods, droughts, and heat waves. We analyze changes in summer temperatures, the frequency, severity, and duration of heat waves, and heat-related mortality in India between 1960 and 2009 using data from the India Meteorological Department. Mean temperatures across India have risen by more than 0.5°C over this period, with statistically significant increases in heat waves. Using a novel probabilistic model, we further show that the increase in summer mean temperatures in India over this period corresponds to a 146% increase in the probability of heat-related mortality events of more than 100 people. In turn, our results suggest that future climate warming will lead to substantial increases in heat-related mortality, particularly in developing low-latitude countries, such as India, where heat waves will become more frequent and populations are especially vulnerable to these extreme temperatures. Our findings indicate that even moderate increases in mean temperatures may cause great increases in heat-related mortality and support the efforts of governments and international organizations to build up the resilience of these vulnerable regions to more severe heat waves.

Responses of tree species to heat waves and extreme heat events.

PubMed

Teskey, Robert; Wertin, Timothy; Bauweraerts, Ingvar; Ameye, Maarten; McGuire, Mary Anne; Steppe, Kathy

2015-09-01

The number and intensity of heat waves has increased, and this trend is likely to continue throughout the 21st century. Often, heat waves are accompanied by drought conditions. It is projected that the global land area experiencing heat waves will double by 2020, and quadruple by 2040. Extreme heat events can impact a wide variety of tree functions. At the leaf level, photosynthesis is reduced, photooxidative stress increases, leaves abscise and the growth rate of remaining leaves decreases. In some species, stomatal conductance increases at high temperatures, which may be a mechanism for leaf cooling. At the whole plant level, heat stress can decrease growth and shift biomass allocation. When drought stress accompanies heat waves, the negative effects of heat stress are exacerbated and can lead to tree mortality. However, some species exhibit remarkable tolerance to thermal stress. Responses include changes that minimize stress on photosynthesis and reductions in dark respiration. Although there have been few studies to date, there is evidence of within-species genetic variation in thermal tolerance, which could be important to exploit in production forestry systems. Understanding the mechanisms of differing tree responses to extreme temperature events may be critically important for understanding how tree species will be affected by climate change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Implementation of the Montreal heat response plan during the 2010 heat wave.

PubMed

Price, Karine; Perron, Stéphane; King, Norman

2013-02-11

The objective of this paper is to describe Montreal's heat response plan and its application during the July 2010 heat wave. The Montreal heat response plan is designed to ensure the surveillance of weather and health indicators during the summer season and to coordinate actions to be undertaken during this period to reduce morbidity and mortality due to heat, particularly when weather thresholds are reached or an increase in health indicators is observed. It was developed to coordinate and apply intervention measures on the Island of Montreal and has been in effect since 2004. In the beginning of July 2010, Montreal experienced a heat wave that lasted 5 days. During this period, health indicators such as total mortality, prehospital emergency transports, calls to the health information line and hospital admissions were monitored by the Montreal public health surveillance system. The decision to implement emergency interventions and actions performed by regional and local public health and municipal partners (intervention level) was made following attainment of a predetermined weather threshold and increases in health indicators. The significant increase in daily observed mortality from all causes and in particular people dying at home or in the community prompted the Director of public health to conduct a chart review of all people deceased from July 5 to July 11, 2010 to determine cause of death and underlying health conditions. During the heat wave, there were 304 reported deaths from all causes in Montreal residents, of which 106 were probably or possibly heat-related. Major underlying health conditions in heat-related deaths included cardiovascular problems and mental health illness. Furthermore, in the case of people with mental illness who died during the heat wave, the chart review revealed that many were contacted 24 hours prior to their death by health care professionals, family members, neighbours or friends. Following the 2010 heat wave, the Montreal

Extreme heat changes post-heat wave community reassembly

PubMed Central

Seifert, Linda I; Weithoff, Guntram; Vos, Matthijs

2015-01-01

Climate forecasts project further increases in extremely high-temperature events. These present threats to biodiversity, as they promote population declines and local species extinctions. This implies that ecological communities will need to rely more strongly on recovery processes, such as recolonization from a meta-community context. It is poorly understood how differences in extreme event intensity change the outcome of subsequent community reassembly and if such extremes modify the biotic environment in ways that would prevent the successful re-establishment of lost species. We studied replicated aquatic communities consisting of algae and herbivorous rotifers in a design that involved a control and two different heat wave intensity treatments (29°C and 39°C). Animal species that suffered heat-induced extinction were subsequently re-introduced at the same time and density, in each of the two treatments. The 39°C treatment led to community closure in all replicates, meaning that a previously successful herbivore species could not re-establish itself in the postheat wave community. In contrast, such closure never occurred after a 29°C event. Heat wave intensity determined the number of herbivore extinctions and strongly affected algal relative abundances. Re-introduced herbivore species were thus confronted with significantly different food environments. This ecological legacy generated by heat wave intensity led to differences in the failure or success of herbivore species re-introductions. Reassembly was significantly more variable, and hence less predictable, after an extreme heat wave, and was more canalized after a moderate one. Our results pertain to relatively simple communities, but they suggest that ecological legacies introduced by extremely high-temperature events may change subsequent ecological recovery and even prevent the successful re-establishment of lost species. Knowing the processes promoting and preventing ecological recovery is crucial

Time-series Analysis of Heat Waves and Emergency Department Visits in Atlanta, 1993 to 2012

PubMed Central

Chen, Tianqi; Sarnat, Stefanie E.; Grundstein, Andrew J.; Winquist, Andrea

2017-01-01

Background: Heat waves are extreme weather events that have been associated with adverse health outcomes. However, there is limited knowledge of heat waves’ impact on population morbidity, such as emergency department (ED) visits. Objectives: We investigated associations between heat waves and ED visits for 17 outcomes in Atlanta over a 20-year period, 1993–2012. Methods: Associations were estimated using Poisson log-linear models controlling for continuous air temperature, dew-point temperature, day of week, holidays, and time trends. We defined heat waves as periods of ≥2 consecutive days with temperatures beyond the 98th percentile of the temperature distribution over the period from 1945–2012. We considered six heat wave definitions using maximum, minimum, and average air temperatures and apparent temperatures. Associations by heat wave characteristics were examined. Results: Among all outcome-heat wave combinations, associations were strongest between ED visits for acute renal failure and heat waves defined by maximum apparent temperature at lag 0 [relative risk (RR) = 1.15; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03–1.29], ED visits for ischemic stroke and heat waves defined by minimum temperature at lag 0 (RR = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.02–1.17), and ED visits for intestinal infection and heat waves defined by average temperature at lag 1 (RR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.00–1.21). ED visits for all internal causes were associated with heat waves defined by maximum temperature at lag 1 (RR = 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.04). Conclusions: Heat waves can confer additional risks of ED visits beyond those of daily air temperature, even in a region with high air-conditioning prevalence. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP44 PMID:28599264

Simulated heat waves affected alpine grassland only in combination with drought.

PubMed

De Boeck, Hans J; Bassin, Seraina; Verlinden, Maya; Zeiter, Michaela; Hiltbrunner, Erika

2016-01-01

The Alpine region is warming fast, and concurrently, the frequency and intensity of climate extremes are increasing. It is currently unclear whether alpine ecosystems are sensitive or resistant to such extremes. We subjected Swiss alpine grassland communities to heat waves with varying intensity by transplanting monoliths to four different elevations (2440-660 m above sea level) for 17 d. Half of these were regularly irrigated while the other half were deprived of irrigation to additionally induce a drought at each site. Heat waves had no significant impacts on fluorescence (Fv /Fm , a stress indicator), senescence and aboveground productivity if irrigation was provided. However, when heat waves coincided with drought, the plants showed clear signs of stress, resulting in vegetation browning and reduced phytomass production. This likely resulted from direct drought effects, but also, as measurements of stomatal conductance and canopy temperatures suggest, from increased high-temperature stress as water scarcity decreased heat mitigation through transpiration. The immediate responses to heat waves (with or without droughts) recorded in these alpine grasslands were similar to those observed in the more extensively studied grasslands from temperate climates. Responses following climate extremes may differ in alpine environments, however, because the short growing season likely constrains recovery. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

THE ROLE OF TORSIONAL ALFVEN WAVES IN CORONAL HEATING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Antolin, P.; Shibata, K., E-mail: antolin@astro.uio.n, E-mail: shibata@kwasan.kyoto-u.ac.j

In the context of coronal heating, among the zoo of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves that exist in the solar atmosphere, Alfven waves receive special attention. Indeed, these waves constitute an attractive heating agent due to their ability to carry over the many different layers of the solar atmosphere sufficient energy to heat and maintain a corona. However, due to their incompressible nature these waves need a mechanism such as mode conversion (leading to shock heating), phase mixing, resonant absorption, or turbulent cascade in order to heat the plasma. Furthermore, their incompressibility makes their detection in the solar atmosphere very difficult. Newmore » observations with polarimetric, spectroscopic, and imaging instruments such as those on board the Japanese satellite Hinode, or the Crisp spectropolarimeter of the Swedish Solar Telescope or the Coronal Multi-channel Polarimeter, are bringing strong evidence for the existence of energetic Alfven waves in the solar corona. In order to assess the role of Alfven waves in coronal heating, in this work we model a magnetic flux tube being subject to Alfven wave heating through the mode conversion mechanism. Using a 1.5 dimensional MHD code, we carry out a parameter survey varying the magnetic flux tube geometry (length and expansion), the photospheric magnetic field, the photospheric velocity amplitudes, and the nature of the waves (monochromatic or white-noise spectrum). The regimes under which Alfven wave heating produces hot and stable coronae are found to be rather narrow. Independently of the photospheric wave amplitude and magnetic field, a corona can be produced and maintained only for long (>80 Mm) and thick (area ratio between the photosphere and corona >500) loops. Above a critical value of the photospheric velocity amplitude (generally a few km s{sup -1}) the corona can no longer be maintained over extended periods of time and collapses due to the large momentum of the waves. These results establish

Heating and background plasma modification associated with large amplitude kinetic Alfv'en wave launch in LAPD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, T. A.; Auerbach, D. W.; Brugman, B. T.

2007-11-01

Large amplitude kinetic Alfv'en waves (δB/B ˜1% > k/k) are generated in the Large Plasma Device (LAPD) at UCLA using loop antennas. Substantial electron heating is observed, localized to the wave current channels. The Poynting flux associated with the Alfv'en waves is substantial and the observed heating may be at least in part due to collisional and Landau damping of these waves. However, heating by antenna near inductive electric fields may also be responsible for the observations. A discussion of both possibilities will be presented, including measurements of near fields of the antenna. The heating structures the background plasma and results in the excitation of drift-Alfv'en waves. These drift waves then interact with the incident Alfv'en wave, causing sideband generation which results in a nearly broadband state at high wave power. This process may represent an alternate mechanism by which unidirectional kinetic Alfv'en waves can nonlinearly generate a turbulent spectrum. In addition to electron heating, evidence for background density modification and electron acceleration is observed and will be presented.

Exploration of high harmonic fast wave heating on the National Spherical Torus Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, J. R.; Bell, R. E.; Bernabei, S.; Bitter, M.; Bonoli, P.; Gates, D.; Hosea, J.; LeBlanc, B.; Mau, T. K.; Medley, S.; Menard, J.; Mueller, D.; Ono, M.; Phillips, C. K.; Pinsker, R. I.; Raman, R.; Rosenberg, A.; Ryan, P.; Sabbagh, S.; Stutman, D.; Swain, D.; Takase, Y.; Wilgen, J.

2003-05-01

High harmonic fast wave (HHFW) heating has been proposed as a particularly attractive means for plasma heating and current drive in the high beta plasmas that are achievable in spherical torus (ST) devices. The National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) [M. Ono, S. M. Kaye, S. Neumeyer et al., in Proceedings of the 18th IEEE/NPSS Symposium on Fusion Engineering, Albuquerque, 1999 (IEEE, Piscataway, NJ, 1999), p. 53] is such a device. An rf heating system has been installed on the NSTX to explore the physics of HHFW heating, current drive via rf waves and for use as a tool to demonstrate the attractiveness of the ST concept as a fusion device. To date, experiments have demonstrated many of the theoretical predictions for HHFW. In particular, strong wave absorption on electrons over a wide range of plasma parameters and wave parallel phase velocities, wave acceleration of energetic ions, and indications of current drive for directed wave spectra have been observed. In addition HHFW heating has been used to explore the energy transport properties of NSTX plasmas, to create H-mode discharges with a large fraction of bootstrap current and to control the plasma current profile during the early stages of the discharge.

Exploration of High Harmonic Fast Wave Heating on the National Spherical Torus Experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

J.R. Wilson; R.E. Bell; S. Bernabei

2003-02-11

High Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating has been proposed as a particularly attractive means for plasma heating and current drive in the high-beta plasmas that are achievable in spherical torus (ST) devices. The National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) [Ono, M., Kaye, S.M., Neumeyer, S., et al., Proceedings, 18th IEEE/NPSS Symposium on Fusion Engineering, Albuquerque, 1999, (IEEE, Piscataway, NJ (1999), p. 53.)] is such a device. An radio-frequency (rf) heating system has been installed on NSTX to explore the physics of HHFW heating, current drive via rf waves and for use as a tool to demonstrate the attractiveness of the STmore » concept as a fusion device. To date, experiments have demonstrated many of the theoretical predictions for HHFW. In particular, strong wave absorption on electrons over a wide range of plasma parameters and wave parallel phase velocities, wave acceleration of energetic ions, and indications of current drive for directed wave spectra have been observed. In addition HHFW heating has been used to explore the energy transport properties of NSTX plasmas, to create H-mode (high-confinement mode) discharges with a large fraction of bootstrap current and to control the plasma current profile during the early stages of the discharge.« less

The impact of heat waves on children's health: a systematic review.

PubMed

Xu, Zhiwei; Sheffield, Perry E; Su, Hong; Wang, Xiaoyu; Bi, Yan; Tong, Shilu

2014-03-01

Young children are thought to be particularly sensitive to heat waves, but relatively less research attention has been paid to this field to date. A systematic review was conducted to elucidate the relationship between heat waves and children's health. Literature published up to August 2012 were identified using the following MeSH terms and keywords: "heatwave", "heat wave", "child health", "morbidity", "hospital admission", "emergency department visit", "family practice", "primary health care", "death" and "mortality". Of the 628 publications identified, 12 met the selection criteria. The existing literature does not consistently suggest that mortality among children increases significantly during heat waves, even though infants were associated with more heat-related deaths. Exposure to heat waves in the perinatal period may pose a threat to children's health. Pediatric diseases or conditions associated with heat waves include renal disease, respiratory disease, electrolyte imbalance and fever. Future research should focus on how to develop a consistent definition of a heat wave from a children's health perspective, identifying the best measure of children's exposure to heat waves, exploring sensitive outcome measures to quantify the impact of heat waves on children, evaluating the possible impacts of heat waves on children's birth outcomes, and understanding the differences in vulnerability to heat waves among children of different ages and from different income countries. Projection of the children's disease burden caused by heat waves under climate change scenarios, and development of effective heat wave mitigation and adaptation strategies that incorporate other child protective health measures, are also strongly recommended.

The impact of heat waves on children's health: a systematic review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhiwei; Sheffield, Perry E.; Su, Hong; Wang, Xiaoyu; Bi, Yan; Tong, Shilu

2014-03-01

Young children are thought to be particularly sensitive to heat waves, but relatively less research attention has been paid to this field to date. A systematic review was conducted to elucidate the relationship between heat waves and children's health. Literature published up to August 2012 were identified using the following MeSH terms and keywords: "heatwave", "heat wave", "child health", "morbidity", "hospital admission", "emergency department visit", "family practice", "primary health care", "death" and "mortality". Of the 628 publications identified, 12 met the selection criteria. The existing literature does not consistently suggest that mortality among children increases significantly during heat waves, even though infants were associated with more heat-related deaths. Exposure to heat waves in the perinatal period may pose a threat to children's health. Pediatric diseases or conditions associated with heat waves include renal disease, respiratory disease, electrolyte imbalance and fever. Future research should focus on how to develop a consistent definition of a heat wave from a children's health perspective, identifying the best measure of children's exposure to heat waves, exploring sensitive outcome measures to quantify the impact of heat waves on children, evaluating the possible impacts of heat waves on children's birth outcomes, and understanding the differences in vulnerability to heat waves among children of different ages and from different income countries. Projection of the children's disease burden caused by heat waves under climate change scenarios, and development of effective heat wave mitigation and adaptation strategies that incorporate other child protective health measures, are also strongly recommended.

Stochastic Ion Heating by the Lower-Hybrid Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khazanov, G.; Tel'nikhin, A.; Krotov, A.

2011-01-01

The resonance lower-hybrid wave-ion interaction is described by a group (differentiable map) of transformations of phase space of the system. All solutions to the map belong to a strange attractor, and chaotic motion of the attractor manifests itself in a number of macroscopic effects, such as the energy spectrum and particle heating. The applicability of the model to the problem of ion heating by waves at the front of collisionless shock as well as ion acceleration by a spectrum of waves is discussed. Keywords: plasma; ion-cyclotron heating; shocks; beat-wave accelerator.

Accounting for adaptation and intensity in projecting heat wave-related mortality.

PubMed

Wang, Yan; Nordio, Francesco; Nairn, John; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel D

2018-02-01

How adaptation and intensity of heat waves affect heat wave-related mortality is unclear, making health projections difficult. We estimated the effect of heat waves, the effect of the intensity of heat waves, and adaptation on mortality in 209 U.S. cities with 168 million people during 1962-2006. We improved the standard time-series models by incorporating the intensity of heat waves using excess heat factor (EHF) and estimating adaptation empirically using interactions with yearly mean summer temperature (MST). We combined the epidemiological estimates for heat wave, intensity, and adaptation with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset to project heat wave-related mortality by 2050. The effect of heat waves increased with its intensity. Adaptation to heat waves occurred, which was shown by the decreasing effect of heat waves with MST. However, adaptation was lessened as MST increased. Ignoring adaptation in projections would result in a substantial overestimate of the projected heat wave-related mortality (by 277-747% in 2050). Incorporating the empirically estimated adaptation into projections would result in little change in the projected heat wave-related mortality between 2006 and 2050. This differs regionally, however, with increasing mortality over time for cities in the southern and western U.S. but decreasing mortality over time for the north. Accounting for adaptation is important to reduce bias in the projections of heat wave-related mortality. The finding that the southern and western U.S. are the areas that face increasing heat-related deaths is novel, and indicates that more regional adaptation strategies are needed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Heat waves over Central Europe in regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lhotka, Ondřej; Kyselý, Jan

2014-05-01

Regional climate models (RCMs) have become a powerful tool for exploring impacts of global climate change on a regional scale. The aim of the study is to evaluate the capability of RCMs to reproduce characteristics of major heat waves over Central Europe in their simulations of the recent climate (1961-2000), with a focus on the most severe and longest Central European heat wave that occurred in 1994. We analyzed 7 RCM simulations with a high resolution (0.22°) from the ENSEMBLES project, driven by the ERA-40 reanalysis. In observed data (the E-OBS 9.0 dataset), heat waves were defined on the basis of deviations of daily maximum temperature (Tmax) from the 95% quantile of summer Tmax distribution in grid points over Central Europe. The same methodology was applied in the RCM simulations; we used corresponding 95% quantiles (calculated for each RCM and grid point) in order to remove the bias of modelled Tmax. While climatological characteristics of heat waves are reproduced reasonably well in the RCM ensemble, we found major deficiencies in simulating heat waves in individual years. For example, METNOHIRHAM simulated very severe heat waves in 1996, when no heat wave was observed. Focusing on the major 1994 heat wave, considerable differences in simulated temperature patterns were found among the RCMs. The differences in the temperature patterns were clearly linked to the simulated amount of precipitation during this event. The 1994 heat wave was almost absent in all RCMs that did not capture the observed precipitation deficit, while it was by far most pronounced in KNMI-RACMO that simulated virtually no precipitation over Central Europe during the 15-day period of the heat wave. By contrast to precipitation, values of evaporative fraction in the RCMs were not linked to severity of the simulated 1994 heat wave. This suggests a possible major contribution of other factors such as cloud cover and associated downward shortwave radiation. Therefore, a more detailed

Solar coronal loop heating by cross-field wave transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amendt, Peter; Benford, Gregory

1989-01-01

Solar coronal arches heated by turbulent ion-cyclotron waves may suffer significant cross-field transport by these waves. Nonlinear processes fix the wave-propagation speed at about a tenth of the ion thermal velocity, which seems sufficient to spread heat from a central core into a large cool surrounding cocoon. Waves heat cocoon ions both through classical ion-electron collisions and by turbulent stochastic ion motions. Plausible cocoon sizes set by wave damping are in roughly kilometers, although the wave-emitting core may be only 100 m wide. Detailed study of nonlinear stabilization and energy-deposition rates predicts that nearby regions can heat to values intermediate between the roughly electron volt foot-point temperatures and the about 100 eV core, which is heated by anomalous Ohmic losses. A volume of 100 times the core volume may be affected. This qualitative result may solve a persistent problem with current-driven coronal heating; that it affects only small volumes and provides no way to produce the extended warm structures perceptible to existing instruments.

Added effect of heat wave on mortality in Seoul, Korea.

PubMed

Lee, Won Kyung; Lee, Hye Ah; Lim, Youn Hee; Park, Hyesook

2016-05-01

A heat wave could increase mortality owing to high temperature. However, little is known about the added (duration) effect of heat wave from the prolonged period of high temperature on mortality and different effect sizes depending on the definition of heat waves and models. A distributed lag non-linear model with a quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the added effect of heat wave on mortality after adjusting for long-term and intra-seasonal trends and apparent temperature. We evaluated the cumulative relative risk of the added wave effect on mortality on lag days 0-30. The models were constructed using nine definitions of heat wave and two relationships (cubic spline and linear threshold model) between temperature and mortality to leave out the high temperature effect. Further, we performed sensitivity analysis to evaluate the changes in the effect of heat wave on mortality according to the different degrees of freedom for time trend and cubic spline of temperature. We found that heat wave had the added effect from the prolonged period of high temperature on mortality and it was considerable in the aspect of cumulative risk because of the lagged influence. When heat wave was defined with a threshold of 98th percentile temperature and ≥2, 3, and 4 consecutive days, mortality increased by 14.8 % (7.5-22.6, 95 % confidence interval (CI)), 18.1 % (10.8-26.0, 95 % CI), 18.1 % (10.7-25.9, 95 % CI), respectively, in cubic spline model. When it came to the definitions of 90th and 95th percentile, the risk increase in mortality declined to 3.7-5.8 % and 8.6-11.3 %, respectively. This effect was robust to the flexibility of the model for temperature and time trend, while the definitions of a heat wave were critical in estimating its relationship with mortality. This finding could help deepen our understanding and quantifying of the relationship between heat wave and mortality and select an appropriate definition of heat wave and temperature model in the future

Excess mortality during heat waves and cold spells in Moscow, Russia.

PubMed

Revich, B; Shaposhnikov, D

2008-10-01

To estimate excess mortality during heat waves and cold spells, and to identify vulnerable population groups by age and cause of death. Daily mortality in Moscow, Russia from all non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory causes between January 2000 and February 2006 was analysed. Mortality and displaced mortality during cold spells and heat waves were estimated using independent samples t tests. Cumulative excess non-accidental mortality during the 2001 heat wave was 33% (95% CI 20% to 46%), or approximately 1200 additional deaths, with short-term displaced mortality contributing about 10% of these. Mortality from coronary heart disease increased by 32% (95% CI 16% to 48%), cerebrovascular mortality by 51% (95% CI 29% to 73%) and respiratory mortality by 80% (95% CI 57% to 101%). In the 75+ age group, corresponding mortality increments were consistently higher except respiratory deaths. An estimated 560 extra deaths were observed during the three heat waves of 2002, when non-accidental mortality increased by 8.5%, 7.8% and 6.1%, respectively. About 40% of these deaths were brought forward by only a few days, bringing net mortality change down to 3.2% (95% CI 0.8% to 5.5%). The cumulative effects of the two cold spells in 2006 on mortality were significant only in the 75+ age group, for which average daily mortality from all non-accidental causes increased by 9.9% (95% CI 8.0% to 12%) and 8.9% (95% CI 6.7% to 11%), resulting in 370 extra deaths; there were also significant increases in coronary disease mortality and cerebrovascular mortality. This study confirms that daily mortality in Moscow increases during heat waves and cold spells. A considerable proportion of excess deaths during heat waves occur a short time earlier than they would otherwise have done. Harvesting, or short-term mortality displacement, may be less significant for longer periods of sustained heat stress.

A Study of Alfven Wave Propagation and Heating the Chromosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tu, J.; Song, P.

2013-12-01

Alfven wave propagation, reflection and heating of the solar atmosphere are studied for a one-dimensional solar atmosphere by self-consistently solving plasma and neutral fluid equations and Maxwell's equations with incorporation of the Hall effect, strong electron-neutral, electron-ion, and ion-neutral collisions. The governing equations are very stiff because of the strong coupling between the charged and neutral fluids. We have developed a numerical model based on an implicit backward difference formula (BDF2) of second order accuracy both in time and space to overcome the stiffness. A non-reflecting boundary condition is applied to the top boundary of the simulation domain so that the wave reflection within the domain due to the density gradient can be unambiguously determined. It is shown that the Alfven waves are partially reflected throughout the chromosphere. The reflection is increasingly stronger at higher altitudes and the strongest reflection occurs at the transition region. The waves are damped in the lower chromosphere dominantly through Joule dissipation due to electron collisions with neutrals and ions. The heating resulting from the wave damping is strong enough to balance the radiation energy loss for the quiet chromosphere. The collisional dissipation of the Alfven waves in the weakly collisional corona is negligible. The heating rates are larger for weaker background magnetic fields. In addition, higher frequency waves are subject to heavier damping. There is an upper cutoff frequency, depending on the background magnetic field, above which the waves are completely damped. At the frequencies below which the waves are not strongly damped, the waves may be strongly reflected at the transition region. The reflected waves interacting with the upward propagating waves may produce power at their double frequencies, which leads to more damping. Due to the reflection and damping, the energy flux of the waves transmitted to the corona is one order of

Temporal Compounding of Heat Waves in the Present and Projected Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldwin, J. W.; Dessy, J.; Vecchi, G. A.; Oppenheimer, M.

2017-12-01

The hazard of heat waves is projected to increase significantly with global warming, motivating much recent research characterizing various aspects of these extreme events. One less examined aspect of heat waves is their temporal structure. Here we first modify existing heat wave duration definitions to flexibly account for a variety of possible heat wave temporal structures (sequences of hot and cooler days). We then examine past heat waves associated with high mortality using observational reanalysis data, and note that many past heat waves might be better described as series of hot days compounded together with short breaks of cooler days in between. We employ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global climate model (GCM) simulations to compare the frequency of these compound heat waves in the present and projected future with higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Our results indicate that temporally compound heatwaves will constitute a greater proportion of heat wave risk with global warming. Via examining synthetic autoregressive model data, we propose that this phenomenon is expected when shifting the mean of a time series with some memory and noise. Notably, an increased proportion of compound events implies that vulnerability from prior hot days will play an increasingly large role in heat wave risk, with possible implications for both heat wave-related policy and preparedness.

[Impact of heat waves on non-accidental deaths in Jinan, China].

PubMed

Zhang, J; Liu, S Q; Zhou, L; Gong, S P; Liu, Y L; Zhang, Y; Zhang, J

2016-02-20

To assess the impact of heat waves on non-accidental deaths, and to investigate the influencing factors for deaths caused by heat waves in Jinan, China. Daily death data and meteorological data for summer days with or without heat waves in Jinan from 2012 to 2014 were collected, and a cross-over analysis was conducted to evaluate the influence of heat waves on non-accidental deaths and deaths caused by other reasons. The univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to investigate the influencing factors for deaths caused by heat waves. The risks of non-accidental deaths and deaths caused by circulation system diseases during the days with heat waves were 1.82 times(95% CI: 1.47~2.36) and 1.53 times(95% CI: 1.14~2.07) those during the days without heat waves. The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that old age(≥75 years)(OR=1.184, 95% CI: 1.068~1.313), low educational level(OR=1.187, 95% CI: 1.064~1.324), and deaths outside hospital(OR=1.105, 95% CI: 1.009~1.210) were associated with the high risk of deaths during the days with heat waves. Heat waves significantly increase the risk of non-accidental deaths and deaths caused by circulation system diseases in Jinan, and the deaths during the days with heat waves are related to age, educational level, and place of death.

Investigation of ELF/VLF waves created by a "beat-wave" HF ionospheric heating at high latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shumilov, Oleg; Tereshchenko, Evgeniy; Kasatkina, Elena; Gomonov, Alexandr

2015-04-01

The generation of extremely low frequency (ELF, 3-3000 Hz) and very low frequency (VLF, 3-30 kHz) electromagnetic waves by modulated ionospheric high frequency (HF, 2-30 MHz) heating is one of the main directions of ionospheric modification experiments. In this work, we present observations of ELF waves generated during a "beat-wave" heating experiments at the EISCAT heating facility. ELF waves were registered with the ELF receiver located at Lovozero (68 N, 35 E), 660 km east from the EISCAT Tromso heating facility (69.6 N, 19.2 E). Frequency shifts between the generated beat-wave and received ELF waves were detected in all sessions. It is shown that the amplitudes of ELF waves depend on the auroral electrojet current strength. Our results showing a strong dependence of ELF signal intensities on the substorm development seem to support the conclusion that electrojet currents may affect the BW generation of ELF/VLF waves.

Analysis of a Community-based Intervention to Reduce Heat-related Illness during Heat Waves in Licheng, China: a Quasi-experimental Study.

PubMed

Li, Jing; Xu, Xin; Wang, Jun; Zhao, Yun; Song, Xiu Ping; Liu, Zhi Dong; Cao, Li Na; Jiang, Bao Fa; Liu, Qi Yong

2016-11-01

To reduce health-related threats of heat waves, interventions have been implemented in many parts of the world. However, there is a lack of higher-level evidence concerning the intervention efficacy. This study aimed to determine the efficacy of an intervention to reduce the number of heat-related illnesses. A quasi-experimental design was employed by two cross-sectional surveys in the year 2014 and 2015, including 2,240 participants and 2,356 participants, respectively. Each survey was designed to include one control group and one intervention group, which conducted in Licheng, China. A representative sample was selected using a multistage sampling method. Data, collected from questionnaires about heat waves in 2014 and 2015, were analyzed using a difference-in-difference analysis and cost effectiveness analysis. Outcomes included changes in the prevalence of heat-related illnesses and cost-effectiveness variables. Relative to the control participants, the prevalence of heat-related illness in the intervention participants decreased to a greater extent in rural areas than in urban areas (OR=0.495 vs. OR=1.281). Moreover, the cost-effectiveness ratio in the intervention group was less than that in the control group (US$15.06 vs. US$15.69 per participant). Furthermore, to avoid one additional patient, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio showed that an additional US$14.47 would be needed for the intervention compared to when no intervention was applied. The intervention program may be considered a worthwhile investment for rural areas that are more likely to experience heat waves. Meanwhile, corresponding improving measures should be presented towards urban areas. Future research should examine whether the intervention strategies could be spread out in other domestic or international regions where heat waves are usually experienced. Copyright © 2016 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

The impact of heat waves on surface urban heat island and local economy in Cluj-Napoca city, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herbel, Ioana; Croitoru, Adina-Eliza; Rus, Adina Viorica; Roşca, Cristina Florina; Harpa, Gabriela Victoria; Ciupertea, Antoniu-Flavius; Rus, Ionuţ

2017-07-01

The association between heat waves and the urban heat island effect can increase the impact on environment and society inducing biophysical hazards. Heat stress and their associated public health problems are among the most frequent. This paper explores the heat waves impact on surface urban heat island and on the local economy loss during three heat periods in Cluj-Napoca city in the summer of 2015. The heat wave events were identified based on daily maximum temperature, and they were divided into three classes considering the intensity threshold: moderate heat waves (daily maximum temperature exceeding the 90th percentile), severe heat waves (daily maximum temperature over the 95th percentile), and extremely severe heat waves (daily maximum temperature exceeding the 98th percentile). The minimum length of an event was of minimum three consecutive days. The surface urban heat island was detected based on land surface temperature derived from Landsat 8 thermal infrared data, while the economic impact was estimated based on data on work force structure and work productivity in Cluj-Napoca derived from the data released by Eurostat, National Bank of Romania, and National Institute of Statistics. The results indicate that the intensity and spatial extension of surface urban heat island could be governed by the magnitude of the heat wave event, but due to the low number of satellite images available, we should consider this information only as preliminary results. Thermal infrared remote sensing has proven to be a very efficient method to study surface urban heat island, due to the fact that the synoptic conditions associated with heat wave events usually favor cloud free image. The resolution of the OLI_TIRS sensor provided good results for a mid-extension city, but the low revisiting time is still a drawback. The potential economic loss was calculated for the working days during heat waves and the estimated loss reached more than 2.5 mil. EUR for each heat wave day

Heat waves and warm periods in Slovakia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faško, Pavel; Bochníček, Oliver; Markovič, Ladislav; Švec, Marek

2016-04-01

The scenarios of climate change caused by human activity show that frequency of occurrence and extent of heat waves in the interior of Europe is increasing. Among the most exposed regions in this regard should the area of southeastern and eastern Austria and south-western Slovakia. The relatively faster increase in the number of heat waves in this area is related also to potential desertification in this region just east of the Alps, since during summer, weather fronts advancing from the west are consequently losing their original features and moderating influence. Summer weather patterns for this area should in the future more closely remind climate typical for some inland areas of southwestern, southern and southeastern Europe. A certain shift of climate zones from south to north should thus modify future climate and Slovakia. Despite the complex natural conditions the existing trends derived from results of meteorological measurements and observations are clear and they confirm warming of climate in this region. Observations and measurements in the recent years of the 21st century confirm, that heat waves are no longer rare phenomenon during summer, but are systematically appearing even in colder regions of northern Slovakia. What is very remarkable and will be necessary to pay more attention to, is the fact that these heat waves are expanding into previously unaffected areas, associated with the lack of rainfall and drought, on larger regional scale. In this study heat wave periods and individual heat events and days are statistically identified in the time series characteristics of air temperature at selected meteorological stations for the period from the mid-20th century until 2015, in case of available historical data even for longer period.

The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project.

PubMed

D'Ippoliti, Daniela; Michelozzi, Paola; Marino, Claudia; de'Donato, Francesca; Menne, Bettina; Katsouyanni, Klea; Kirchmayer, Ursula; Analitis, Antonis; Medina-Ramón, Mercedes; Paldy, Anna; Atkinson, Richard; Kovats, Sari; Bisanti, Luigi; Schneider, Alexandra; Lefranc, Agnès; Iñiguez, Carmen; Perucci, Carlo A

2010-07-16

The present study aimed at developing a standardized heat wave definition to estimate and compare the impact on mortality by gender, age and death causes in Europe during summers 1990-2004 and 2003, separately, accounting for heat wave duration and intensity. Heat waves were defined considering both maximum apparent temperature and minimum temperature and classified by intensity, duration and timing during summer. The effect was estimated as percent increase in daily mortality during heat wave days compared to non heat wave days in people over 65 years. City specific and pooled estimates by gender, age and cause of death were calculated. The effect of heat waves showed great geographical heterogeneity among cities. Considering all years, except 2003, the increase in mortality during heat wave days ranged from + 7.6% in Munich to + 33.6% in Milan. The increase was up to 3-times greater during episodes of long duration and high intensity. Pooled results showed a greater impact in Mediterranean (+ 21.8% for total mortality) than in North Continental (+ 12.4%) cities. The highest effect was observed for respiratory diseases and among women aged 75-84 years. In 2003 the highest impact was observed in cities where heat wave episode was characterized by unusual meteorological conditions. Climate change scenarios indicate that extreme events are expected to increase in the future even in regions where heat waves are not frequent. Considering our results prevention programs should specifically target the elderly, women and those suffering from chronic respiratory disorders, thus reducing the impact on mortality.

Wave propagation model of heat conduction and group speed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Long; Zhang, Xiaomin; Peng, Song

2018-03-01

In view of the finite relaxation model of non-Fourier's law, the Cattaneo and Vernotte (CV) model and Fourier's law are presented in this work for comparing wave propagation modes. Independent variable translation is applied to solve the partial differential equation. Results show that the general form of the time spatial distribution of temperature for the three media comprises two solutions: those corresponding to the positive and negative logarithmic heating rates. The former shows that a group of heat waves whose spatial distribution follows the exponential function law propagates at a group speed; the speed of propagation is related to the logarithmic heating rate. The total speed of all the possible heat waves can be combined to form the group speed of the wave propagation. The latter indicates that the spatial distribution of temperature, which follows the exponential function law, decays with time. These features show that propagation accelerates when heated and decelerates when cooled. For the model media that follow Fourier's law and correspond to the positive heat rate of heat conduction, the propagation mode is also considered the propagation of a group of heat waves because the group speed has no upper bound. For the finite relaxation model with non-Fourier media, the interval of group speed is bounded and the maximum speed can be obtained when the logarithmic heating rate is exactly the reciprocal of relaxation time. And for the CV model with a non-Fourier medium, the interval of group speed is also bounded and the maximum value can be obtained when the logarithmic heating rate is infinite.

Sahelian springtime heat waves and their evolution over the past 60 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbier, Jessica; Guichard, Françoise; Bouniol, Dominique; Couvreux, Fleur; Roehrig, Romain

2017-04-01

The Sahel is a semi-arid region which experiences very high temperature both during day- and night-times: monthly-mean temperatures in Spring typically oscillate between 30 and 40°C. At the same time a strong climatic warming has been observed over the past 60 years in this region: it reaches +1,5°C over April-May. Thus heat waves in this region have severe impacts on health, ecosystem, agriculture and more broadly economical activities, which will probably worsen in the context of climate change. However, heat waves in the Sahel remain poorly studied. The present work documents Sahelian heat waves and assesses their evolution across the last 60 years. Properties of heat waves are sensitive to the way they are detected. Here, we use a methodology based on anomalies that allows to filter the seasonal, inter-annual and climatic evolutions, using a percentile-type threshold. It is applied separately to daily maximum and minimum temperatures and leads to two types of heat waves: day- and night-time ones. This separation matters because physical processes linked to minimum and maximum temperatures can be quite distinct. The changes in both types of heat wave were studied over the period 1950-2012 using the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature gridded product: several heat wave characteristics were investigated, including morphological ones such as the length and the spatial extent of the event, the heat wave intensity and the associated warming trends. We found no significant trends in the frequency, duration and spatial extent of both types of heat waves, while on the other hand their maximum and minimum temperatures displayed significant positive trends. They were mainly explained by the regional warming. By contrast, with a standard climatic heat index using percentile-threshold on raw temperatures, both day- and night-time heat wave frequencies were increasing, and while the day-time heat waves were getting longer and larger, the night-time heat waves were getting

Predictability of the European heat and cold waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavaysse, Christophe; Naumann, Gustavo; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Salamon, Peter; Vogt, Jürgen

2018-06-01

Heat and cold waves may have considerable human and economic impacts in Europe. Recent events, like the heat waves observed in France in 2003 and Russia in 2010, illustrated the major consequences to be expected. Reliable Early Warning Systems for extreme temperatures would, therefore, be of high value for decision makers. However, they require a clear definition and robust forecasts of these events. This study analyzes the predictability of heat and cold waves over Europe, defined as at least three consecutive days of {T}_{min} and {T}_{max} above the quantile Q90 (under Q10), using the extended ensemble system of ECMWF. The results show significant predictability for events within a 2-week lead time, but with a strong decrease of the predictability during the first week of forecasts (from 80 to 40% of observed events correctly forecasted). The scores show a higher predictive skill for the cold waves (in winter) than for the heat waves (in summer). The uncertainties and the sensitivities of the predictability are discussed on the basis of tests conducted with different spatial and temporal resolutions. Results demonstrate the negligible effect of the temporal resolution (very few errors due to bad timing of the forecasts), and a better predictability of large-scale events. The onset and the end of the waves are slightly less predictable with an average of about 35% (30%) of observed heat (cold) waves onsets or ends correctly forecasted with a 5-day lead time. Finally, the forecasted intensities show a correlation of about 0.65 with those observed, revealing the challenge to predict this important characteristic.

Eurasian Heat Waves: Mechanisms and Predictability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Hailan; Schubert, Siegfried; Koster, Randal; Suarez, Max

2012-01-01

This study uses the NASA MERRA reanalysis and GEOS 5 model simulations to examine the causes of Eurasian heat waves including the recent extreme events that occurred in Europe during 2003 and in Russia during 2010. The focus is on the warm season and the part of the Eurasian continent that extends north of about 40oN, or roughly to the north of the mean upper tropospheric jet stream. The results show that such extreme events are an amplification of natural patterns of atmospheric variability that develop over the Eurasian continent as a result of internal atmospheric forcing. The amplification occurs when the wave occasionally becomes locked in place for several weeks to months resulting in extreme heat and drying with the location depending on the phase of the upper atmospheric wave. An ensemble of very long GEOS-S model simulations (spanning the 20th century) forced with observed SST and greenhouse gases show that the model is capable of generating very similar heat waves, and that they have become more intense in the last thirty years as a result of the overall warming of the Asian continent. Sensitivity experiments with perturbed initial conditions indicate that these events have limited predictability.

Outpatient clinic visits during heat waves: findings from a large family medicine clinical database.

PubMed

Vashishtha, Devesh; Sieber, William; Hailey, Brittany; Guirguis, Kristen; Gershunov, Alexander; Al-Delaimy, Wael K

2018-03-10

The purpose of this study was to determine whether heat waves are associated with increased frequency of clinic visits for ICD-9 codes of illnesses traditionally associated with heat waves. During 4 years of family medicine clinic data between 2012 and 2016, we identified six heat wave events in San Diego County. For each heat wave event, we selected a control period in the same season that was twice as long. Scheduling a visit on a heat wave day (versus a non-heat wave day) was the primary predictor, and receiving a primary ICD-9 disease code related to heat waves was the outcome. Analyses were adjusted for age, gender, race/ethnicity and marital status. Of the 5448 visits across the heat wave and control periods, 6.4% of visits (n = 346) were for heat wave-related diagnoses. Scheduling a visit on heat wave day was not associated with receiving a heat wave-related ICD code as compared with the control period (adjusted odds ratio: 1.35; 95% confidence interval: 0.86-1.36; P = 0.51). We show that in a relatively large and demographically diverse population, patients who schedule appointments during heat waves are not being more frequently seen for diagnoses typically associated with heat waves in the acute setting. Given that heat waves are increasing in frequency due to climate change, there is an opportunity to increase utilization of primary care clinics during heat waves.

California heat waves: their spatial evolution, variation, and coastal modulation by low clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clemesha, Rachel E. S.; Guirguis, Kristen; Gershunov, Alexander; Small, Ivory J.; Tardy, Alexander

2018-06-01

We examine the spatial and temporal evolution of heat waves through California and consider one of the key modulating factors of summertime coastal climate—coastal low cloudiness (CLC). Heat waves are defined relative to daytime maximum temperature (Tmax) anomalies after removing local seasonality and capture unseasonably warm events during May—September. California is home to several diverse climate regions and characteristics of extreme heat events are also variable throughout these regions. Heat wave events tend to be shorter, but more anomalously intense along the coast. Heat waves typically impact both coastal and inland regions, although there is more propensity towards coastally trapped events. Most heat waves with a strong impact across regions start at the coast, proceed inland, and weaken at the coast before letting up inland. Typically, the beginning of coastal heat waves are associated with a loss of CLC, followed by a strong rebound of CLC starting close to the peak in heat wave intensity. The degree to which an inland heat wave is expressed at the coast is associated with the presence of these low clouds. Inland heat waves that have very little expression at the coast tend to have CLC present and an elevated inversion base height compared with other heat waves.

Heat protection behaviors and positive affect about heat during the 2013 heat wave in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Lefevre, Carmen E; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Taylor, Andrea L; Dessai, Suraje; Kovats, Sari; Fischhoff, Baruch

2015-03-01

Heat waves pose serious health risks, and are expected to become more frequent, longer lasting, and more intense in the future under a changing climate. Yet, people in the UK seem to feel positive when thinking about hot weather. According to research on the affect heuristic, any positive or negative emotions evoked by potentially risky experiences may be used as cues to inform concerns about risk protection. If so, then their positive feelings toward hot weather might lead UK residents to lower intentions to adopt heat protection behaviors. Here, we examine the relationships between heat protection behaviors during the July 2013 UK heat wave and self-reports of having heard heat protection recommendations, feeling positive affect about heat, seeing heat protection measures as effective, and trusting the organizations making those recommendations. Responses to a national survey revealed that 55.1% of participants had heard heat protection recommendations during the 2013 UK heat wave. Those who reported having heard recommendations also indicated having implemented more heat protection behaviors, perceiving heat protection behaviors as more effective, feeling more positive about heat, and intending to implement more protection behaviors in future hot summers. Mediation analyses suggested that heat protection recommendations may motivate heat protection behaviors by increasing their perceived effectiveness, but undermine their implementation by evoking positive affect about hot weather. We discuss our findings in the context of the affect heuristic and its implications for heat protection communications. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Heat wave hazard classification and risk assessment using artificial intelligence fuzzy logic.

PubMed

Keramitsoglou, Iphigenia; Kiranoudis, Chris T; Maiheu, Bino; De Ridder, Koen; Daglis, Ioannis A; Manunta, Paolo; Paganini, Marc

2013-10-01

The average summer temperatures as well as the frequency and intensity of hot days and heat waves are expected to increase due to climate change. Motivated by this consequence, we propose a methodology to evaluate the monthly heat wave hazard and risk and its spatial distribution within large cities. A simple urban climate model with assimilated satellite-derived land surface temperature images was used to generate a historic database of urban air temperature fields. Heat wave hazard was then estimated from the analysis of these hourly air temperatures distributed at a 1-km grid over Athens, Greece, by identifying the areas that are more likely to suffer higher temperatures in the case of a heat wave event. Innovation lies in the artificial intelligence fuzzy logic model that was used to classify the heat waves from mild to extreme by taking into consideration their duration, intensity and time of occurrence. The monthly hazard was subsequently estimated as the cumulative effect from the individual heat waves that occurred at each grid cell during a month. Finally, monthly heat wave risk maps were produced integrating geospatial information on the population vulnerability to heat waves calculated from socio-economic variables.

Projected Heat Wave Characteristics over the Korean Peninsula During the Twenty-First Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Jongsoo; Olson, Roman; An, Soon-Il

2018-02-01

Climate change is expected to increase temperatures globally, and consequently more frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves are likely to occur. Ambiguity in defining heat waves appropriately makes it difficult to compare changes in heat wave events over time. This study provides a quantitative definition of a heat wave and makes probabilistic heat wave projections for the Korean Peninsula under two global warming scenarios. Changes to heat waves under global warming are investigated using the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) experiments from 30 coupled models participating in phase five of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project. Probabilistic climate projections from multi-model ensembles have been constructed using both simple and weighted averaging. Results from both methods are similar and show that heat waves will be more intense, frequent, and longer lasting. These trends are more apparent under the RCP8.5 scenario as compared to the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, typical heat waves are projected to become stronger than any heat wave experienced in the recent measurement record. Furthermore, under this scenario, it cannot be ruled out that Korea will experience heat wave conditions spanning almost an entire summer before the end of the 21st century.

Distortion of Digital Image Correlation (DIC) Displacements and Strains from Heat Waves

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, E. M. C.; Reu, P. L.

“Heat waves” is a colloquial term used to describe convective currents in air formed when different objects in an area are at different temperatures. In the context of Digital Image Correlation (DIC) and other optical-based image processing techniques, imaging an object of interest through heat waves can significantly distort the apparent location and shape of the object. We present that there are many potential heat sources in DIC experiments, including but not limited to lights, cameras, hot ovens, and sunlight, yet error caused by heat waves is often overlooked. This paper first briefly presents three practical situations in which heatmore » waves contributed significant error to DIC measurements to motivate the investigation of heat waves in more detail. Then the theoretical background of how light is refracted through heat waves is presented, and the effects of heat waves on displacements and strains computed from DIC are characterized in detail. Finally, different filtering methods are investigated to reduce the displacement and strain errors caused by imaging through heat waves. The overarching conclusions from this work are that errors caused by heat waves are significantly higher than typical noise floors for DIC measurements, and that the errors are difficult to filter because the temporal and spatial frequencies of the errors are in the same range as those of typical signals of interest. In conclusion, eliminating or mitigating the effects of heat sources in a DIC experiment is the best solution to minimizing errors caused by heat waves.« less

Distortion of Digital Image Correlation (DIC) Displacements and Strains from Heat Waves

DOE PAGES

Jones, E. M. C.; Reu, P. L.

2017-11-28

“Heat waves” is a colloquial term used to describe convective currents in air formed when different objects in an area are at different temperatures. In the context of Digital Image Correlation (DIC) and other optical-based image processing techniques, imaging an object of interest through heat waves can significantly distort the apparent location and shape of the object. We present that there are many potential heat sources in DIC experiments, including but not limited to lights, cameras, hot ovens, and sunlight, yet error caused by heat waves is often overlooked. This paper first briefly presents three practical situations in which heatmore » waves contributed significant error to DIC measurements to motivate the investigation of heat waves in more detail. Then the theoretical background of how light is refracted through heat waves is presented, and the effects of heat waves on displacements and strains computed from DIC are characterized in detail. Finally, different filtering methods are investigated to reduce the displacement and strain errors caused by imaging through heat waves. The overarching conclusions from this work are that errors caused by heat waves are significantly higher than typical noise floors for DIC measurements, and that the errors are difficult to filter because the temporal and spatial frequencies of the errors are in the same range as those of typical signals of interest. In conclusion, eliminating or mitigating the effects of heat sources in a DIC experiment is the best solution to minimizing errors caused by heat waves.« less

Testing the time-scale dependence of delayed interactions: A heat wave during the egg stage shapes how a pesticide interacts with a successive heat wave in the larval stage.

PubMed

Janssens, Lizanne; Tüzün, Nedim; Stoks, Robby

2017-11-01

Under global change organisms are exposed to multiple, potentially interacting stressors. Especially interactions between successive stressors are poorly understood and recently suggested to depend on their timing of exposure. We particularly need studies assessing the impact of exposure to relevant stressors at various life stages and how these interact. We investigated the single and combined impacts of a heat wave (mild [25 °C] and extreme [30 °C]) during the egg stage, followed by successive exposure to esfenvalerate (ESF) and a heat wave during the larval stage in damselflies. Each stressor caused mortality. The egg heat wave and larval ESF exposure had delayed effects on survival, growth and lipid peroxidation (MDA). This resulted in deviations from the prediction that stressors separated by a long time interval would not interact: the egg heat wave modulated the interaction between the stressors in the larval stage. Firstly, ESF caused delayed mortality only in larvae that had been exposed to the extreme egg heat wave and this strongly depended upon the larval heat wave treatment. Secondly, ESF only increased MDA in larvae not exposed to the egg heat wave. We found little support for the prediction that when there is limited time between stressors, synergistic interactions should occur. The intermediate ESF concentration only caused delayed mortality when combined with the larval heat wave, and the lowest ESF concentrations only increased oxidative damage when followed by the mild larval heat wave. Survival selection mitigated the interaction patterns between successive stressors that are individually lethal, and therefore should be included in a predictive framework for the time-scale dependence of the outcome of multistressor studies with pollutants. The egg heat wave shaping the interaction pattern between successive pesticide exposure and a larval heat wave highlights the connectivity between the concepts of 'heat-induced pesticide sensitivity' and

Heat Waves and Morbidity: Current Knowledge and Further Direction-A Comprehensive Literature Review

PubMed Central

Li, Mengmeng; Gu, Shaohua; Bi, Peng; Yang, Jun; Liu, Qiyong

2015-01-01

In the past few decades, several devastating heat wave events have significantly challenged public health. As these events are projected to increase in both severity and frequency in the future, it is important to assess the relationship between heat waves and the health indicators that can be used in the early warning systems to guide the public health response. Yet there is a knowledge gap in the impact of heat waves on morbidity. In this study, a comprehensive review was conducted to assess the relationship between heat waves and different morbidity indicators, and to identify the vulnerable populations. The PubMed and ScienceDirect database were used to retrieve published literature in English from 1985 to 2014 on the relationship between heat waves and morbidity, and the following MeSH terms and keywords were used: heat wave, heat wave, morbidity, hospital admission, hospitalization, emergency call, emergency medical services, and outpatient visit. Thirty-three studies were included in the final analysis. Most studies found a short-term negative health impact of heat waves on morbidity. The elderly, children, and males were more vulnerable during heat waves, and the medical care demand increased for those with existing chronic diseases. Some social factors, such as lower socioeconomic status, can contribute to heat-susceptibility. In terms of study methods and heat wave definitions, there remain inconsistencies and uncertainties. Relevant policies and guidelines need to be developed to protect vulnerable populations. Morbidity indicators should be adopted in heat wave early warning systems in order to guide the effective implementation of public health actions. PMID:25993103

Climate change scenarios of heat waves in Central Europe and their uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lhotka, Ondřej; Kyselý, Jan; Farda, Aleš

2018-02-01

The study examines climate change scenarios of Central European heat waves with a focus on related uncertainties in a large ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX and ENSEMBLES projects. Historical runs (1970-1999) driven by global climate models (GCMs) are evaluated against the E-OBS gridded data set in the first step. Although the RCMs are found to reproduce the frequency of heat waves quite well, those RCMs with the coarser grid (25 and 50 km) considerably overestimate the frequency of severe heat waves. This deficiency is improved in higher-resolution (12.5 km) EURO-CORDEX RCMs. In the near future (2020-2049), heat waves are projected to be nearly twice as frequent in comparison to the modelled historical period, and the increase is even larger for severe heat waves. Uncertainty originates mainly from the selection of RCMs and GCMs because the increase is similar for all concentration scenarios. For the late twenty-first century (2070-2099), a substantial increase in heat wave frequencies is projected, the magnitude of which depends mainly upon concentration scenario. Three to four heat waves per summer are projected in this period (compared to less than one in the recent climate), and severe heat waves are likely to become a regular phenomenon. This increment is primarily driven by a positive shift of temperature distribution, but changes in its scale and enhanced temporal autocorrelation of temperature also contribute to the projected increase in heat wave frequencies.

Heat Waves and Climate Change: Applying the Health Belief Model to Identify Predictors of Risk Perception and Adaptive Behaviours in Adelaide, Australia

PubMed Central

Akompab, Derick A.; Bi, Peng; Williams, Susan; Grant, Janet; Walker, Iain A.; Augoustinos, Martha

2013-01-01

Heat waves are considered a health risk and they are likely to increase in frequency, intensity and duration as a consequence of climate change. The effects of heat waves on human health could be reduced if individuals recognise the risks and adopt healthy behaviours during a heat wave. The purpose of this study was to determine the predictors of risk perception using a heat wave scenario and identify the constructs of the health belief model that could predict adaptive behaviours during a heat wave. A cross-sectional study was conducted during the summer of 2012 among a sample of persons aged between 30 to 69 years in Adelaide. Participants’ perceptions were assessed using the health belief model as a conceptual frame. Their knowledge about heat waves and adaptive behaviours during heat waves was also assessed. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the predictors of risk perception to a heat wave scenario and adaptive behaviours during a heat wave. Of the 267 participants, about half (50.9%) had a high risk perception to heat waves while 82.8% had good adaptive behaviours during a heat wave. Multivariate models found that age was a significant predictor of risk perception. In addition, participants who were married (OR = 0.21; 95% CI, 0.07–0.62), who earned a gross annual household income of ≥$60,000 (OR = 0.41; 95% CI, 0.17–0.94) and without a fan (OR = 0.29; 95% CI, 0.11–0.79) were less likely to have a high risk perception to heat waves. Those who were living with others (OR = 2.87; 95% CI, 1.19–6.90) were more likely to have a high risk perception to heat waves. On the other hand, participants with a high perceived benefit (OR = 2.14; 95% CI, 1.00–4.58), a high “cues to action” (OR = 3.71; 95% CI, 1.63–8.43), who had additional training or education after high school (OR = 2.65; 95% CI, 1.25–5.58) and who earned a gross annual household income of ≥$60,000 (OR = 2.66; 95% CI, 1.07–6.56) were more likely to have good

Low-Frequency Waves in HF Heating of the Ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, A. S.; Eliasson, B.; Milikh, G. M.; Najmi, A.; Papadopoulos, K.; Shao, X.; Vartanyan, A.

2016-02-01

Ionospheric heating experiments have enabled an exploration of the ionosphere as a large-scale natural laboratory for the study of many plasma processes. These experiments inject high-frequency (HF) radio waves using high-power transmitters and an array of ground- and space-based diagnostics. This chapter discusses the excitation and propagation of low-frequency waves in HF heating of the ionosphere. The theoretical aspects and the associated models and simulations, and the results from experiments, mostly from the HAARP facility, are presented together to provide a comprehensive interpretation of the relevant plasma processes. The chapter presents the plasma model of the ionosphere for describing the physical processes during HF heating, the numerical code, and the simulations of the excitation of low-frequency waves by HF heating. It then gives the simulations of the high-latitude ionosphere and mid-latitude ionosphere. The chapter also briefly discusses the role of kinetic processes associated with wave generation.

Heat waves in lowland Germany and their circulation-related conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomczyk, Arkadiusz M.; Sulikowska, Agnieszka

2017-09-01

The research study aimed at assessing multiannual variability of heat wave occurrence in the lowland part of Germany between 1966 and 2015 and determining the role of atmospheric circulation in their occurrence. The analysis was conducted with the use of two independent datasets, that is, the dataset of Germany's National Meteorological Service, Deutscher Wetterdienst, and American meteorological reanalysis database of the National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research. This article defines a hot day as a day with maximum temperature of >30 °C, and a heat wave as a sequence of at least three such days. The observed warming translated into an increase in a number of hot days and, consequently, an increase in the frequency of heat wave occurrence. In the analysed 50-year period, the smallest number of heat waves was observed between 1976 and 1985, and the largest number between 2006 and 2015 in the lowland part of Germany. The occurrence of heat waves in lowland Germany was related to anticyclonic circulation.

Effects of heat waves on mortality: effect modification and confounding by air pollutants.

PubMed

Analitis, Antonis; Michelozzi, Paola; D'Ippoliti, Daniela; De'Donato, Francesca; Menne, Bettina; Matthies, Franziska; Atkinson, Richard W; Iñiguez, Carmen; Basagaña, Xavier; Schneider, Alexandra; Lefranc, Agnès; Paldy, Anna; Bisanti, Luigi; Katsouyanni, Klea

2014-01-01

Heat waves and air pollution are both associated with increased mortality. Their joint effects are less well understood. We explored the role of air pollution in modifying the effects of heat waves on mortality, within the EuroHEAT project. Daily mortality, meteorologic, and air pollution data from nine European cities for the years 1990-2004 were assembled. We defined heat waves by taking both intensity and duration into account. The city-specific effects of heat wave episodes were estimated using generalized estimating equation models, adjusting for potential confounders with and without inclusion of air pollutants (particles, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, carbon monoxide). To investigate effect modification, we introduced an interaction term between heat waves and each single pollutant in the models. Random effects meta-analysis was used to summarize the city-specific results. The increase in the number of daily deaths during heat wave episodes was 54% higher on high ozone days compared with low, among people age 75-84 years. The heat wave effect on high PM10 days was increased by 36% and 106% in the 75-84 year and 85+ year age groups, respectively. A similar pattern was observed for effects on cardiovascular mortality. Effect modification was less evident for respiratory mortality, although the heat wave effect itself was greater for this cause of death. The heat wave effect was smaller (15-30%) after adjustment for ozone or PM10. The heat wave effect on mortality was larger during high ozone or high PM10 days. When assessing the effect of heat waves on mortality, lack of adjustment for ozone and especially PM10 overestimates effect parameters. This bias has implications for public health policy.

Exciting Alfven Waves using Modulated Electron Heating by High Power Microwaves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuhou; Gekelman, Walter; Pribyl, Patrick; van Compernolle, Bart; Papadopoulos, Konstantinos

2014-10-01

Experiments exploring the physics of ionospheric modification with intense perpendicular propagating waves (k-> ⊥B->0) on the Large Plasma Device (LaPD) at UCLA have been upgraded with the addition of a high power rapidly pulsed microwave source. The plasma is irradiated with ten pulses (250 kW X-band) near the upper-hybrid frequency. The pulses are modulated at a frequency of a fraction (0.1-1.0) of fci (ion cyclotron frequency). Based on a previous single-pulse experiment, the modulated electron heating may drive a large amplitude shear Alfvén wave (f wave driving mechanism may have important application in terrestrial radio communications by low frequency waves, which are difficult to launch directly due to their enormous wavelengths. Various heating methods involving X-mode, O-mode, and electron Bernstein mode are investigated in plasmas with controllable parameters (ne =108 ~1012 cm-3 ,Te = 0 . 1 ~ 6 eV ,Ti <waves and the subsequent structural changes of the plasma near the conversion region are also under investigation. This work is supported by an AFOSR MURI award, and conducted at the Basic Plasma Science Facility at UCLA funded by DoE and NSF.

The 2011 heat wave in Greater Houston: Effects of land use on temperature.

PubMed

Zhou, Weihe; Ji, Shuang; Chen, Tsun-Hsuan; Hou, Yi; Zhang, Kai

2014-11-01

Effects of land use on temperatures during severe heat waves have been rarely studied. This paper examines land use-temperature associations during the 2011 heat wave in Greater Houston. We obtained high resolution of satellite-derived land use data from the US National Land Cover Database, and temperature observations at 138 weather stations from Weather Underground, Inc (WU) during the August of 2011, which was the hottest month in Houston since 1889. Land use regression and quantile regression methods were applied to the monthly averages of daily maximum/mean/minimum temperatures and 114 land use-related predictors. Although selected variables vary with temperature metric, distance to the coastline consistently appears among all models. Other variables are generally related to high developed intensity, open water or wetlands. In addition, our quantile regression analysis shows that distance to the coastline and high developed intensity areas have larger impacts on daily average temperatures at higher quantiles, and open water area has greater impacts on daily minimum temperatures at lower quantiles. By utilizing both land use regression and quantile regression on a recent heat wave in one of the largest US metropolitan areas, this paper provides a new perspective on the impacts of land use on temperatures. Our models can provide estimates of heat exposures for epidemiological studies, and our findings can be combined with demographic variables, air conditioning and relevant diseases information to identify 'hot spots' of population vulnerability for public health interventions to reduce heat-related health effects during heat waves. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Warm vegetarians? Heat waves and diet shifts in tadpoles.

PubMed

Carreira, B M; Segurado, P; Orizaola, G; Gonçalves, N; Pinto, V; Laurila, A; Rebelo, R

2016-11-01

Temperature can play an important role in determining the feeding preferences of ectotherms. In light of the warmer temperatures arising with the current climatic changes, omnivorous ectotherms may perform diet shifts toward higher herbivory to optimize energetic intake. Such diet shifts may also occur during heat waves, which are projected to become more frequent, intense, and longer lasting in the future. Here, we investigated how heat waves of different duration affect feeding preferences in omnivorous anuran tadpoles and how these choices affect larval life history. In laboratory experiments, we fed tadpoles of three species on animal, plant, or mixed diet and exposed them to short heat waves (similar to the heat waves these species experience currently) or long heat waves (predicted to increase under climate change). We estimated the dietary choices of tadpoles fed on the mixed diet using stable isotopes and recorded tadpole survival and growth, larval period, and mass at metamorphosis. Tadpole feeding preferences were associated with their thermal background, with herbivory increasing with breeding temperature in nature. Patterns in survival, growth, and development generally support decreased efficiency of carnivorous diets and increased efficiency or higher relative quality of herbivorous diets at higher temperatures. All three species increased herbivory in at least one of the heat wave treatments, but the responses varied among species. Diet shifts toward higher herbivory were maladaptive in one species, but beneficial in the other two. Higher herbivory in omnivorous ectotherms under warmer temperatures may impact species differently and further contribute to changes in the structure and function of freshwater environments. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Thermal responses in a coronal loop maintained by wave heating mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsumoto, Takuma

2018-05-01

A full 3-dimensional compressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation is conducted to investigate the thermal responses of a coronal loop to the dynamic dissipation processes of MHD waves. When the foot points of the loop are randomly and continuously forced, the MHD waves become excited and propagate upward. Then, 1-MK temperature corona is produced naturally as the wave energy dissipates. The excited wave packets become non-linear just above the magnetic canopy, and the wave energy cascades into smaller spatial scales. Moreover, collisions between counter-propagating Alfvén wave packets increase the heating rate, resulting in impulsive temperature increases. Our model demonstrates that the heating events in the wave-heated loops can be nanoflare-like in the sense that they are spatially localized and temporally intermittent.

Atmospheric aerosol variability above the Paris Area during the 2015 heat wave - Comparison with the 2003 and 2006 heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chazette, Patrick; Totems, Julien; Shang, Xiaoxia

2017-12-01

The aerosol layers during the heat wave of July 2015 over Paris Area have been studied using a N2-Raman lidar with co- and cross-polarized channels. The lidar observations are examined to allow the identification of main aerosol types and their origins, in synergy with measurements of the AERONET sunphotometer network and back trajectory studies from the HYSPLIT model. The results are compatible with spaceborne observations of MODIS and CALIOP. As for previous heat waves of August 2003 and July 2006 occurring in France, the aerosol optical thickness is very large, up to 0.8 at the lidar wavelength of 355 nm (between 0.5 and 0.7 at 550 nm). However, air mass trajectories highlight that the observed aerosol layers may have multiple and diverse origins during the 2015 heat wave (North America, Northwest Africa, Southern and Northern Europe). Biomass burning, pollution and desert dust aerosols have been identified, using linear particle depolarization ratio, lidar ratio and analysis of back trajectories initiated at the altitudes and arrival times of the plumes. These layers are elevated and are shown to have little impact on surface aerosol concentrations (PM10 < 40 μg m-3 or PM2.5 < 25 μg m-3) and therefore no influence on the local air quality during the 2015 heat wave, unlike in 2003 and 2006. However, they significantly modify the radiative budget by trapping part of the solar ingoing/outgoing fluxes, which leads to a mean aerosol radiative forcing close to +50 ± 17 Wm-2 per aerosol optical thickness unit at 550 nm (AOT550) for solar zenith angles between 55 and 75°, which are available from sunphotometer measurements. This value is smaller than those of the 2003 and 2006 heat waves, which are assessed to be +95 ± 13 and +70 ± 18 Wm-2/AOT550, respectively. The differences between the heat wave of 2015 and the others are mainly due to both the nature and the diversity of aerosols, as indicated by the dispersion of the single scattering albedo distributions at

A spatial analysis of heat stress related emergency room visits in rural Southern Ontario during heat waves.

PubMed

Bishop-Williams, Katherine E; Berke, Olaf; Pearl, David L; Kelton, David F

2015-08-06

In Southern Ontario, climate change may have given rise to an increasing occurrence of heat waves since the year 2000, which can cause heat stress to the general public, and potentially have detrimental health consequences. Heat waves are defined as three consecutive days with temperatures of 32 °C and above. Heat stress is the level of discomfort. A variety of heat stress indices have been proposed to measure heat stress (e.g., the heat stress index (HSI)), and has been shown to predict increases in morbidity and/or mortality rates in humans and other species. Maps visualizing the distribution of heat stress can provide information about related health risks and insight for control strategies. Information to inform heat wave preparedness models in Ontario was previously only available for major metropolitan areas. Hospitals in communities of fewer than 100,000 individuals were recruited for a pilot study by telephone. The number of people visiting the emergency room or 24-hour urgent care service was collected for a total of 27 days, covering three heat waves and six 3-day control periods from 2010-2012. The heat stress index was spatially predicted using data from 37 weather stations across Southern Ontario by geostatistical kriging. Poisson regression modeling was applied to determine the rate of increased number of emergency room visits in rural hospitals with respect to the HSI. During a heat wave, the average rate of emergency room visits was 1.11 times higher than during a control period (IRR = 1.11, CI95% (IRR) = (1.07,1.15), p ≤ 0.001). In a univariable model, HSI was not a significant predictor of emergency room visits, but when accounting for the confounding effect of a spatial trend polynomial in the hospital location coordinates, a one unit increase in HSI predicted an increase in daily emergency rooms visits by 0.4% (IRR = 1.004, CI95%(IRR) = (1.0005,1.007), p = 0.024) across the region. One high-risk cluster and no low risk

The role of local heating in the 2015 Indian heat wave

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

India faced a major heat wave during the summer of 2015. Temperature anomalies peaked in the dry period before the onset of the summer monsoon, suggesting that local land-atmosphere feedbacks involving desiccated soils and vegetation might have played a role in driving the heat extreme. Upon examina...

Synoptic-scale characteristics and atmospheric controls of summer heat waves in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Weiwen; Zhou, Wen; Li, Xiuzhen; Wang, Xin; Wang, Dongxiao

2016-05-01

Summer heat waves with persistent extreme high temperatures have been occurring with increasing frequency in recent decades. These extreme events have disastrous consequences for human health, economies, and ecosystems. In this study, we examine three summers with intense and protracted heat waves: the summers of 2003, 2006, and 2013, with high temperatures located mainly in southeastern, southwestern, and eastern China, respectively. The synoptic-scale characteristics of these heat waves and associated atmospheric circulation anomalies are investigated. In the early heat wave episode of 2003, a heat center was located in the southeast coastal provinces during the first 20 days of July. The maximum southward displacement of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) induced anticyclonic anomalies to the south, associated with southwestward intensification of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), and extreme high temperatures were found only to the south of the Yangtze River. In the later episode, a poleward displacement of the EAJS and an enhanced WNPSH over the midlatitudes of eastern China resulted in a "heat dome" over the region, and the heat wave extended northward to cover a larger area of eastern China. The coupling between the westward-enhanced WNPSH and poleward-displaced EAJS was found in the East China heat wave of 2013 as well. But the area of high temperatures reached far to the north in August 2013, with below-normal temperatures located in a small region of South China. In the 2006 southwestern drought and heat wave, extreme poleward displacement of the EAJS, associated with extraordinary westward extension of the WNSPH, resulted in further blocking of the moisture supply from the southwest monsoon. Large-scale moisture deficiencies, dry conditions, and downslope winds were common features of all investigated heat wave episodes. But in 2006, low-level heat lows associated with a well-mixed layer due to intensive daytime heating and atmospheric

Projection of heat waves variation over a warming climate in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, X.; Wu, S.; Pan, T.

2016-12-01

Heat waves (HW) have adverse impacts on economies, human health, societies and environment, which have been observed around the world and are expected to increase in a warming climate. However, the variations of HW under climate change over China are not clear yet. Using the HadGEM2-ES RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 daily maximum temperature and humidity dataset, variation of heat waves in China for 2021-2050 comparing to 1991-2000 as baseline were analyzed. The CMA-HI (Heat Index standardized by China Meteorological Administration) index was used to calculate the frequency and intensity of head waves. This paper classified the HW into three intensity levels including mild HW, moderate HW and severe HW , and defined a heat wave event (HWE) as that CMA-HI are all above or equal to 2.8 and keep at a intensity level more than five consecutive days. Results show that during 2021to 2050, the distribution area, frequency and duration of each intensity level have an increasing trend over China, and those of severe HW will increase mostly. The distribution area of mild, moderate and severe HW will increase 18%, 22%, 35% respectively. Average HWE frequency of each level will concentrate on 0.5-1instead of 0-0.3 in baseline period. Maximum frequency of each intensity can reach to almost 3 times a year. During 1991-2000, the average frequency of mild HW, moderate HW and severe HW kept a downward sequence. But it will change to increase in the future, and the shift occurs during 2031-2040. In addition, only severe HW duration will increase in the future. Its average value will increase from 9days to 13days, and keep a maximum duration of 42days.While the average duration of mild HW and moderate HW just keep almost 6 days and 8 days as usual. Regionally, both the frequency and duration will keep high value in the region of eastern China, central China, southern China and central Xinjiang autonomous region in the future. And only severe HW has a great change in distribution. Under RCP 8

On the physics of waves in the solar atmosphere: Wave heating and wind acceleration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Musielak, Z. E.

1992-01-01

In the area of solar physics, new calculations of the acoustic wave energy fluxes generated in the solar convective zone was performed. The original theory developed was corrected by including a new frequency factor describing temporal variations of the turbulent energy spectrum. We have modified the original Stein code by including this new frequency factor, and tested the code extensively. Another possible source of the mechanical energy generated in the solar convective zone is the excitation of magnetic flux tube waves which can carry energy along the tubes far away from the region. The problem as to how efficiently those waves are generated in the Sun was recently solved. The propagation of nonlinear magnetic tube waves in the solar atmosphere was calculated, and mode coupling, shock formation, and heating of the local medium was studied. The wave trapping problems and evaluation of critical frequencies for wave reflection in the solar atmosphere was studied. It was shown that the role played by Alfven waves in the wind accelerations and the coronal hole heating is dominant. Presently, we are performing calculations of wave energy fluxes generated in late-type dwarf stars and studying physical processes responsible for the heating of stellar chromospheres and coronae. In the area of physics of waves, a new analytical approach for studying linear Alfven waves in smoothly nonuniform media was recently developed. This approach is presently being extended to study the propagation of linear and nonlinear magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves in stratified, nonisothermal and solar atmosphere. The Lighthill theory of sound generation to nonisothermal media (with a special temperature distribution) was extended. Energy cascade by nonlinear MHD waves and possible chaos driven by these waves are presently considered.

Shock-wave initiation of heated plastified TATB detonation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuzmitsky, Igor; Rudenko, Vladimir; Gatilov, Leonid; Koshelev, Alexandr

1999-06-01

Explosive, plastified TATB, attracts attention with its weak sensitivity to shock loads and high temperature stability ( Pthreshold ? 6.5 GPa and Tcrit ? 250 0Q). However, at its cooling to T 250 0Q plastified TATB becomes as sensitive to shock load as octogen base HE: the excitation threshold reduces down to Pthreshold 2.0 GPa. The main physical reason for the HE sensitivity change is reduction in density at heating and, hence, higher porosity of the product (approximately from 2Moreover, increasing temperature increases the growth rate of uhotf spots which additionally increases the shock sensitivity [1]. Heated TATB experiments are also conducted at VNIIEF. The detonation excitation was computed within 1D program system MAG using EOS JWL for HE and EP and LLNL kinetics [1,2,3]. Early successful results of using this kinetics to predict detonation excitation in heated plastified TATB in VNIIEF experiments with short and long loading pulses are presented. Parameters of the chemical zone of the stationary detonation wave in plastified TATB (LX-17) were computed with the data from [1]. Parameters Heated In shell Cooled Unheated ?0 , g/cm3 1.70 1.81 1.84 1.905 D , km/s 7.982 7.764 7.686 7.517 PN, GPa 45.4 45.8 35.7 32.9 PJ, GPa 27.0 27.3 27.2 26.4 ?x , mm 0.504 0.843 1.041 2.912 ?t , ns 63.1 108.6 135.5 387.4 [1] Effect of Confinement and Thermal Cycling on the Shock Initiation of LX-17 P.A. Urtiew, C.M. Tarver, J.L. Maienschein, and W.C. Tao. LLNL. Combustion and Flame 105: 43-53 (1996) [2] C.M. Tarver, P.A. Urtiew and W.C. Tao (LLNL) Effects of tandem and colliding shock waves on initiation of triaminotrinitrobenzene. J.Appl. Phys. 78(5), September 1995 [3] Craig M. Tarver, John W. Kury and R. Don Breithaupt Detonation waves in triaminotrinitrobenzene J. Appl. Phys. 82(8) , 15 October 1997.

The association between consecutive days' heat wave and cardiovascular disease mortality in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Yin, Qian; Wang, Jinfeng

2017-02-23

Although many studies have examined the effects of heat waves on the excess mortality risk (ER) posed by cardiovascular disease (CVD), scant attention has been paid to the effects of various combinations of differing heat wave temperatures and durations. We investigated such effects in Beijing, a city of over 20 million residents. A generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the ER of consecutive days' exposure to extreme high temperatures. A key finding was that when extremely high temperatures occur continuously, at varying temperature thresholds and durations, the adverse effects on CVD mortality vary significantly. The longer the heat wave lasts, the greater the mortality risk is. When the daily maximum temperature exceeded 35 °C from the fourth day onward, the ER attributed to consecutive days' high temperature exposure saw an increase to about 10% (p < 0.05), and at the fifth day, the ER even reached 51%. For the thresholds of 32 °C, 33 °C, and 34 °C, from the fifth day onward, the ER also rose sharply (16, 29, and 31%, respectively; p < 0.05). In addition, extreme high temperatures appeared to contribute to a higher proportion of CVD deaths among elderly persons, females and outdoor workers. When the daily maximum temperature was higher than 33 °C from the tenth consecutive day onward, the ER of CVD death among these groups was 94, 104 and 149%, respectively (p < 0.05), which is considerably higher than the ER for the overall population (87%; p < 0.05). The results of this study may assist governments in setting standards for heat waves, creating more accurate heat alerts, and taking measures to prevent or reduce temperature-related deaths, especially against the backdrop of global warming.

Chromospheric heating by acoustic shock waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jordan, Stuart D.

1993-01-01

Work by Anderson & Athay (1989) suggests that the mechanical energy required to heat the quiet solar chromosphere might be due to the dissipation of weak acoustic shocks. The calculations reported here demonstrate that a simple picture of chromospheric shock heating by acoustic waves propagating upward through a model solar atmosphere, free of both magnetic fields and local inhomogeneities, cannot reproduce their chromospheric model. The primary reason is the tendency for vertically propagating acoustic waves in the range of allowed periods to dissipate too low in the atmosphere, providing insufficient residual energy for the middle chromosphere. The effect of diverging magnetic fields and the corresponding expanding acoustic wavefronts on the mechanical dissipation length is then discussed as a means of preserving a quasi-acoustic heating hypothesis. It is argued that this effect, in a canopy that overlies the low chromosphere, might preserve the acoustic shock hypothesis consistent with the chromospheric radiation losses computed by Anderson & Athay.

Heat waves according to warm spell duration index in Slovakia during 1901-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bochníček, Oliver; Faško, Pavel; Markovič, Ladislav

2017-04-01

A heat wave is a prolonged period of extremely high temperatures for a particular region. However, there exist no universal definitions for a heat wave as it is relative to a specific area and to a certain time of year. In fact, average temperatures in one region may be considered heat wave conditions in another. For instance, an average day in the Mediterranean would be regarded as heat wave conditions in Northern Europe. We have known that World Meteorological Organization definition of a heatwave which is "when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 °C, the normal period being 1961-1990". This rule has been accepted in contribution Heat waves and warm periods in Slovakia (Oliver Bochníček - Pavol Fa\\vsko - Ladislav Markovič) published (presented) in EGU 2016. To move on we have tried another criterion for heat waves evaluation (according to warm spell duration index, WSDI) and period since 1901 (1951) to 2016. Important for many sectors (hydrology, agriculture, transportation and tourism) is, that heat waves have been expected during the whole year and period, that is why it can have various impacts. Heat waves occurrence gave us interesting results especially after the 1990.

Identifying Changes in the Probability of High Temperature, High Humidity Heat Wave Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballard, T.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2016-12-01

Understanding how heat waves will respond to climate change is critical for adequate planning and adaptation. While temperature is the primary determinant of heat wave severity, humidity has been shown to play a key role in heat wave intensity with direct links to human health and safety. Here we investigate the individual contributions of temperature and specific humidity to extreme heat wave conditions in recent decades. Using global NCEP-DOE Reanalysis II daily data, we identify regional variability in the joint probability distribution of humidity and temperature. We also identify a statistically significant positive trend in humidity over the eastern U.S. during heat wave events, leading to an increased probability of high humidity, high temperature events. The extent to which we can expect this trend to continue under climate change is complicated due to variability between CMIP5 models, in particular among projections of humidity. However, our results support the notion that heat wave dynamics are characterized by more than high temperatures alone, and understanding and quantifying the various components of the heat wave system is crucial for forecasting future impacts.

New York City Impact on Regional Heat Wave

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ortiz, Luis E.; Schoonen, Martin

Abstract Extreme heat events are projected to increase in magnitude and frequency throughout this century due to increasing global temperatures, making it critically important to acquire improved understanding of their genesis and interactions with large cities. This study presents an application of the factor separation method to assess combined impacts of a synoptic scale heat wave, urban land cover, and urban energy and momentum fluxes on temperatures and winds over New York City via use of high resolution simulations (1 km grid spacing) with an urbanized WRF model. Results showed that, while the heat wave had the largest contribution tomore » temperatures (> 8°C), urban surface factors matched it in highly urbanized areas. Surface factors matched this in highly urbanized areas during night and early morning hours, with contributions up to 5°C, when calm land breeze conditions result in a strong urban heat island. Positive interactions between all factors during morning and nighttime indicate urban heat island amplification of up to 4°C during the heat wave. Midtown Manhattan vertical cross-sections, where urban canopies are most dense, showed a change in the sign (from positive to negative) of the contribution of the urban fluxes between night and day below 500 m, possibly due to radiation blocking and increased thermal storage by buildings as well as frictional effects opposing the incoming warm air.« less

New York City Impact on Regional Heat Wave

DOE PAGES

Ortiz, Luis E.; Schoonen, Martin

2018-04-01

Abstract Extreme heat events are projected to increase in magnitude and frequency throughout this century due to increasing global temperatures, making it critically important to acquire improved understanding of their genesis and interactions with large cities. This study presents an application of the factor separation method to assess combined impacts of a synoptic scale heat wave, urban land cover, and urban energy and momentum fluxes on temperatures and winds over New York City via use of high resolution simulations (1 km grid spacing) with an urbanized WRF model. Results showed that, while the heat wave had the largest contribution tomore » temperatures (> 8°C), urban surface factors matched it in highly urbanized areas. Surface factors matched this in highly urbanized areas during night and early morning hours, with contributions up to 5°C, when calm land breeze conditions result in a strong urban heat island. Positive interactions between all factors during morning and nighttime indicate urban heat island amplification of up to 4°C during the heat wave. Midtown Manhattan vertical cross-sections, where urban canopies are most dense, showed a change in the sign (from positive to negative) of the contribution of the urban fluxes between night and day below 500 m, possibly due to radiation blocking and increased thermal storage by buildings as well as frictional effects opposing the incoming warm air.« less

Temperature and heat wave trends in northwest Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Austria, Polioptro F.; Bandala, Erick R.; Patiño-Gómez, Carlos

2016-02-01

Increase in temperature extremes is one of the main expected impacts of climate change, as well as one of the first signs of its occurrence. Nevertheless, results emerging from General Circulation Models, while sufficient for large scales, are not enough for forecasting local trends and, hence, the IPCC has called for local studies based on on-site data. Indeed, it is expected that climate extremes will be detected much earlier than changes in climate averages. Heat waves are among the most important and least studied climate extremes, however its occurrence has been only barely studied and even its very definition remains controversial. This paper discusses the observed changes in temperature trends and heat waves in Northwestern Mexico, one of the most vulnerable regions of the country. The climate records in two locations of the region are analyzed, including one of the cities with extreme climate in Mexico, Mexicali City in the state of Baja California and the Yaqui River basin at Sonora State using three different methodologies. Results showed clear trends on temperature increase and occurrence of heat waves in both of the study zones using the three methodologies proposed. As result, some policy making suggestion are included in order to increase the adaptability of the studied regions to climate change, particularly related with heat wave occurrence.

Future Heat Waves In Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eltahir, E. A. B.

2017-12-01

I will review recent work from my group on the impact of climate change on the intensity and frequency of heat waves in Asia. Our studies covered Southwest Asia, South Asia, East China, and the Maritime continent. In any of these regions, the risk associated with climate change impact reflects intensity of natural hazard and level of human vulnerability. Previous work has shown that the wet-bulb temperature is a useful variable to consider in describing the natural hazard from heat waves since it can be easily compared to the natural threshold that defines the upper limit on human survivability. Based on an ensemble of high resolution climate change simulations, we project extremes of wet-bulb temperature conditions in each of these four regions of Asia. We consider the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions, as well as a moderate mitigation scenario. The results from these regions will be compared and lessons learned summarized.

Unsteady Heat-Flux Measurements of Second-Mode Instability Waves in a Hypersonic Boundary Layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kergerise, Michael A.; Rufer, Shann J.

2016-01-01

In this paper we report on the application of the atomic layer thermopile (ALTP) heat- flux sensor to the measurement of laminar-to-turbulent transition in a hypersonic flat plate boundary layer. The centerline of the flat-plate model was instrumented with a streamwise array of ALTP sensors and the flat-plate model was exposed to a Mach 6 freestream over a range of unit Reynolds numbers. Here, we observed an unstable band of frequencies that are associated with second-mode instability waves in the laminar boundary layer that forms on the flat-plate surface. The measured frequencies, group velocities, phase speeds, and wavelengths of these instability waves are in agreement with data previously reported in the literature. Heat flux time series, and the Morlet-wavelet transforms of them, revealed the wave-packet nature of the second-mode instability waves. In addition, a laser-based radiative heating system was developed to measure the frequency response functions (FRF) of the ALTP sensors used in the wind tunnel test. These measurements were used to assess the stability of the sensor FRFs over time and to correct spectral estimates for any attenuation caused by the finite sensor bandwidth.

Iterative Addition of Kinetic Effects to Cold Plasma RF Wave Solvers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, David; Berry, Lee; RF-SciDAC Collaboration

2017-10-01

The hot nature of fusion plasmas requires a wave vector dependent conductivity tensor for accurate calculation of wave heating and current drive. Traditional methods for calculating the linear, kinetic full-wave plasma response rely on a spectral method such that the wave vector dependent conductivity fits naturally within the numerical method. These methods have seen much success for application to the well-confined core plasma of tokamaks. However, quantitative prediction of high power RF antenna designs for fusion applications has meant a requirement of resolving the geometric details of the antenna and other plasma facing surfaces for which the Fourier spectral method is ill-suited. An approach to enabling the addition of kinetic effects to the more versatile finite-difference and finite-element cold-plasma full-wave solvers was presented by where an operator-split iterative method was outlined. Here we expand on this approach, examine convergence and present a simplified kinetic current estimator for rapidly updating the right-hand side of the wave equation with kinetic corrections. This research used resources of the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which is supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725.

Health impacts of the July 2010 heat wave in Québec, Canada.

PubMed

Bustinza, Ray; Lebel, Germain; Gosselin, Pierre; Bélanger, Diane; Chebana, Fateh

2013-01-21

One of the consequences of climate change is the increased frequency and intensity of heat waves which can cause serious health impacts. In Québec, July 2010 was marked by an unprecedented heat wave in recent history. The purpose of this study is to estimate certain health impacts of this heat wave. The crude daily death and emergency department admission rates during the heat wave were analyzed in relation to comparison periods using 95% confidence intervals. During the heat wave, the crude daily rates showed a significant increase of 33% for deaths and 4% for emergency department admissions in relation to comparison periods. No displacement of mortality was observed over a 60-day horizon. The all-cause death indicator seems to be sufficiently sensitive and specific for surveillance of exceedences of critical temperature thresholds, which makes it useful for a heat health-watch system. Many public health actions combined with the increased use of air conditioning in recent decades have contributed to a marked reduction in mortality during heat waves. However, an important residual risk remains, which needs to be more vigorously addressed by public health authorities in light of the expected increase in the frequency and severity of heat waves and the aging of the population.

Heat waves in Africa and India: a multidisciplinary approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janicot, Serge; Moron, Vincent; Oueslati, Boutheina; Pohl, Benjamin; Rome, Sandra; Lalou, Richard; Dos Santos, Stéphanie

2017-04-01

While the heat wave impacts on public health have been widely addressed in developed countries, less effort has been made to detect them and evaluate their impacts in least developed countries, especially in Africa and to a lesser extent in India, where climate is warmer and adaptation capacities are low. Climate and epidemiologic analyses show however that this problem is already present and climate projections indicate that such events should increase in frequency and intensity in the coming decades. However climate models display important temperature and radiative biases over this region, which must be reduced to provide robust information on the future evolution of heat waves. Moreover early warning systems have to face up to institutional malfunctions. This talk lays the elements for a multidisciplinary approach of tackling heat wave occurrences.

Parametric instability induced by X-mode wave heating at EISCAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiang; Zhou, Chen; Liu, Moran; Honary, Farideh; Ni, Binbin; Zhao, Zhengyu

2016-10-01

In this paper, we present results of parametric instability induced by X-mode wave heating observed by EISCAT (European Incoherent Scatter Scientific Association) radar at Tromsø, Norway. Three typical X-mode ionospheric heating experiments on 22 October 2013, 19 October 2012, and 21 February 2013 are investigated in details. Both parametric decay instability (PDI) and oscillating two-stream instability are observed during the X-mode heating period. We suggest that the full dispersion relationship of the Langmuir wave can be employed to analyze the X-mode parametric instability excitation. A modified kinetic electron distribution is proposed and analyzed, which is able to satisfy the matching condition of parametric instability excitation. Parallel electric field component of X-mode heating wave can also exceed the parametric instability excitation threshold under certain conditions.

Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dole, Randall; Hoerling, Martin; Perlwitz, Judith; Eischeid, Jon; Pegion, Philip; Zhang, Tao; Quan, Xiao-Wei; Xu, Taiyi; Murray, Donald

2011-03-01

The 2010 summer heat wave in western Russia was extraordinary, with the region experiencing the warmest July since at least 1880 and numerous locations setting all-time maximum temperature records. This study explores whether early warning could have been provided through knowledge of natural and human-caused climate forcings. Model simulations and observational data are used to determine the impact of observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), sea ice conditions and greenhouse gas concentrations. Analysis of forced model simulations indicates that neither human influences nor other slowly evolving ocean boundary conditions contributed substantially to the magnitude of this heat wave. They also provide evidence that such an intense event could be produced through natural variability alone. Analysis of observations indicate that this heat wave was mainly due to internal atmospheric dynamical processes that produced and maintained a strong and long-lived blocking event, and that similar atmospheric patterns have occurred with prior heat waves in this region. We conclude that the intense 2010 Russian heat wave was mainly due to natural internal atmospheric variability. Slowly varying boundary conditions that could have provided predictability and the potential for early warning did not appear to play an appreciable role in this event.

Heat stress related dairy cow mortality during heat waves and control periods in rural Southern Ontario from 2010-2012.

PubMed

Bishop-Williams, Katherine E; Berke, Olaf; Pearl, David L; Hand, Karen; Kelton, David F

2015-11-27

Heat stress is a physiological response to extreme environmental heat such as heat waves. Heat stress can result in mortality in dairy cows when extreme heat is both rapidly changing and has a long duration. As a result of climate change, heat waves, which are defined as 3 days of temperatures of 32 °C or above, are an increasingly frequent extreme weather phenomenon in Southern Ontario. Heat waves are increasing the risk for on-farm dairy cow mortality in Southern Ontario. Heat stress indices (HSIs) are generally based on temperature and humidity and provide a relative measure of discomfort which can be used to predict increased risk of on-farm dairy cow mortality. In what follows, the heat stress distribution was described over space and presented with maps. Similarly, on-farm mortality was described and mapped. The goal of this study was to demonstrate that heat waves and related HSI increases during 2010-2012 were associated with increased on-farm dairy cow mortality in Southern Ontario. Mortality records and farm locations for all farms registered in the CanWest Dairy Herd Improvement Program in Southern Ontario were retrieved for 3 heat waves and 6 three-day control periods from 2010 to 2012. A random sample of controls (2:1) was taken from the data set to create a risk-based hybrid design. On-farm heat stress was estimated using data from 37 weather stations and subsequently interpolated across Southern Ontario by geostatistical kriging. A Poisson regression model was applied to assess the on-farm mortality in relation to varying levels of the HSI. For every one unit increase in HSI the on-farm mortality rate across Southern Ontario increases by 1.03 times (CI95% (IRR) = (1.025,1.035); p = ≤ 0.001). With a typical 8.6 unit increase in HSI from a control period to a heat wave, mortality rates are predicted to increase by 1.27 times. Southern Ontario was affected by heat waves, as demonstrated by high levels of heat stress and increased on-farm mortality

Contrasting Heat Budget Dynamics During Two La Niña Marine Heat Wave Events Along Northwestern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Jiangtao; Lowe, Ryan J.; Ivey, Gregory N.; Jones, Nicole L.; Zhang, Zhenling

2018-02-01

Two marine heat wave events along Western Australia (WA) during the alternate austral summer periods of 2010/2011 and 2012/2013, both linked to La Niña conditions, severely impacted marine ecosystems over more than 12° of latitude, which included the unprecedented bleaching of many coral reefs. Although these two heat waves were forced by similar large-scale climate drivers, the warming patterns differed substantially between events. The central coast of WA (south of 22°S) experienced greater warming in 2010/2011, whereas the northwestern coast of WA experienced greater warming in 2012/2013. To investigate how oceanic and atmospheric heat exchange processes drove these different spatial patterns, an analysis of the ocean heat budget was conducted by integrating remote sensing observations, in situ mooring data, and a high-resolution (˜1 km) ocean circulation model (Regional Ocean Modeling System). The results revealed substantial spatial differences in the relative contributions made by heat advection and air-sea heat exchange between the two heat wave events. During 2010/2011, anomalous warming driven by heat advection was present throughout the region but was much stronger south of 22°S where the poleward-flowing Leeuwin Current strengthens. During 2012/2013, air-sea heat exchange had a much more positive (warming) influence on sea surface temperatures (especially in the northwest), and when combined with a more positive contribution of heat advection in the north, this can explain the regional differences in warming between these two La Niña-associated marine heat wave events.

US Drought-Heat Wave Relationships in Past Versus Current Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, L.; Hoerling, M. P.; Eischeid, J.; Liu, Z.

2017-12-01

This study explores the relationship between droughts and heat waves over various regions of the contiguous United States that are distinguished by so-called energy-limited versus water-limited climatologies. We first examine the regional sensitivity of heat waves to soil moisture variability under 19th century climate conditions, and then compare to sensitivities under current climate that has been subjected to human-induced change. Our approach involves application of the conditional statistical framework of vine copula. Vine copula is known for its flexibility in reproducing various dependence structures exhibited by climate variables. Here we highlight its feature for evaluating the importance of conditional relationships between variables and processes that capture underlying physical factors involved in their interdependence during drought/heat waves. Of particular interest is identifying changes in coupling strength between heat waves and land surface conditions that may yield more extreme events as a result of land surface feedbacks. We diagnose two equilibrium experiments a coupled climate model (CESM1), one subjected to Year-1850 external forcing and the other to Year-2000 radiative forcing. We calculate joint heat wave/drought relationships for each climate state, and also calculate their change as a result of external radiative forcing changes across this 150-yr period. Our results reveal no material change in the dependency between heat waves and droughts, aside from small increases in coupling strength over the Great Plains. Overall, hot U.S. summer droughts of 1850-vintage do not become hotter in the current climate -- aside from the warming contribution of long-term climate change, in CESM1. The detectability of changes in hotter droughts as a consequence of anthropogenic forced changes in this single effect, i.e. coupling strength between soil moisture and hot summer temperature, is judged to be low at this time.

The 2006 California Heat Wave: Impacts on Hospitalizations and Emergency Department Visits

PubMed Central

Knowlton, Kim; Rotkin-Ellman, Miriam; King, Galatea; Margolis, Helene G.; Smith, Daniel; Solomon, Gina; Trent, Roger; English, Paul

2009-01-01

Background Climate models project that heat waves will increase in frequency and severity. Despite many studies of mortality from heat waves, few studies have examined morbidity. Objectives In this study we investigated whether any age or race/ethnicity groups experienced increased hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits overall or for selected illnesses during the 2006 California heat wave. Methods We aggregated county-level hospitalizations and ED visits for all causes and for 10 cause groups into six geographic regions of California. We calculated excess morbidity and rate ratios (RRs) during the heat wave (15 July to 1 August 2006) and compared these data with those of a reference period (8–14 July and 12–22 August 2006). Results During the heat wave, 16,166 excess ED visits and 1,182 excess hospitalizations occurred statewide. ED visits for heat-related causes increased across the state [RR = 6.30; 95% confidence interval (CI), 5.67–7.01], especially in the Central Coast region, which includes San Francisco. Children (0–4 years of age) and the elderly (≥ 65 years of age) were at greatest risk. ED visits also showed significant increases for acute renal failure, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, electrolyte imbalance, and nephritis. We observed significantly elevated RRs for hospitalizations for heat-related illnesses (RR = 10.15; 95% CI, 7.79–13.43), acute renal failure, electrolyte imbalance, and nephritis. Conclusions The 2006 California heat wave had a substantial effect on morbidity, including regions with relatively modest temperatures. This suggests that population acclimatization and adaptive capacity influenced risk. By better understanding these impacts and population vulnerabilities, local communities can improve heat wave preparedness to cope with a globally warming future. PMID:19165388

Detection of heat wave using Kalpana-1 VHRR land surface temperature product over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shah, Dhiraj; Pandya, Mehul R.; Pathak, Vishal N.; Darji, Nikunj P.; Trivedi, Himanshu J.

2016-05-01

Heat Waves can have notable impacts on human mortality, ecosystem, economics and energy supply. The effect of heat wave is much more intense during summer than the other seasons. During the period of April to June, spells of very hot weather occur over certain regions of India and global warming scenario may result in further increases of such temperature anomalies and corresponding heat waves conditions. In this paper, satellite observations have been used to detect the heat wave conditions prevailing over India for the period of May-June 2015. The Kalpana-1 VHRR derived land surface temperature (LST) products have been used in the analysis to detect the heat wave affected regions over India. Results from the analysis shows the detection of heat wave affected pixels over Indian land mass. It can be seen that during the study period the parts of the west India, Indo-gangetic plane, Telangana and part of Vidarbh was under severe heat wave conditions which is also confirmed with Automatic Weather Station (AWS) air temperature observations.

Wind Observations of Wave Heating and/or Particle Energization at Supercritical Interplanetary Shocks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Lynn Bruce, III; Szabo, Adam; Koval, Andriy; Cattell, Cynthia A.; Kellogg, Paul J.; Goetz, Keith; Breneman, Aaron; Kersten, Kris; Kasper, Justin C.; Pulupa, Marc

2011-01-01

We present the first observations at supercritical interplanetary shocks of large amplitude (> 100 mV/m pk-pk) solitary waves, approx.30 mV/m pk-pk waves exhibiting characteristics consistent with electron Bernstein waves, and > 20 nT pk-pk electromagnetic lower hybrid-like waves, with simultaneous evidence for wave heating and particle energization. The solitary waves and the Bernstein-like waves were likely due to instabilities driven by the free energy provided by reflected ions [Wilson III et al., 2010]. They were associated with strong particle heating in both the electrons and ions. We also show a case example of parallel electron energization and perpendicular ion heating due to a electromagnetic lower hybrid-like wave. Both studies provide the first experimental evidence of wave heating and/or particle energization at interplanetary shocks. Our experimental results, together with the results of recent Vlasov [Petkaki and Freeman, 2008] and PIC [Matsukyo and Scholer, 2006] simulations using realistic mass ratios provide new evidence to suggest that the importance of wave-particle dissipation at shocks may be greater than previously thought.

Bulk ion heating with ICRF waves in tokamaks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mantsinen, M. J., E-mail: mervi.mantsinen@bsc.es; Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona; Bilato, R.

2015-12-10

Heating with ICRF waves is a well-established method on present-day tokamaks and one of the heating systems foreseen for ITER. However, further work is still needed to test and optimize its performance in fusion devices with metallic high-Z plasma facing components (PFCs) in preparation of ITER and DEMO operation. This is of particular importance for the bulk ion heating capabilities of ICRF waves. Efficient bulk ion heating with the standard ITER ICRF scheme, i.e. the second harmonic heating of tritium with or without {sup 3}He minority, was demonstrated in experiments carried out in deuterium-tritium plasmas on JET and TFTR andmore » is confirmed by ICRF modelling. This paper focuses on recent experiments with {sup 3}He minority heating for bulk ion heating on the ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) tokamak with ITER-relevant all-tungsten PFCs. An increase of 80% in the central ion temperature T{sub i} from 3 to 5.5 keV was achieved when 3 MW of ICRF power tuned to the central {sup 3}He ion cyclotron resonance was added to 4.5 MW of deuterium NBI. The radial gradient of the T{sub i} profile reached locally values up to about 50 keV/m and the normalized logarithmic ion temperature gradients R/LT{sub i} of about 20, which are unusually large for AUG plasmas. The large changes in the T{sub i} profiles were accompanied by significant changes in measured plasma toroidal rotation, plasma impurity profiles and MHD activity, which indicate concomitant changes in plasma properties with the application of ICRF waves. When the {sup 3}He concentration was increased above the optimum range for bulk ion heating, a weaker peaking of the ion temperature profile was observed, in line with theoretical expectations.« less

X-ray analysis of electron Bernstein wave heating in MST

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seltzman, A. H., E-mail: seltzman@wisc.edu; Anderson, J. K.; DuBois, A. M.

2016-11-15

A pulse height analyzing x-ray tomography system has been developed to detect x-rays from electron Bernstein wave heated electrons in the Madison symmetric torus reversed field pinch (RFP). Cadmium zinc telluride detectors are arranged in a parallel beam array with two orthogonal multi-chord detectors that may be used for tomography. In addition a repositionable 16 channel fan beam camera with a 55° field of view is used to augment data collected with the Hard X-ray array. The chord integrated signals identify target emission from RF heated electrons striking a limiter located 12° toroidally away from the RF injection port. Thismore » provides information on heated electron spectrum, transport, and diffusion. RF induced x-ray emission from absorption on harmonic electron cyclotron resonances in low current (<250 kA) RFP discharges has been observed.« less

Regionally dependent summer heat wave response to increased surface temperature in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, H.; Dong, S.; Kirtman, B. P.; Goni, G. J.; Lee, S. K.; Atlas, R. M.; West, R.

2017-12-01

Climate projections for the 21st Century suggest an increase in the occurrence of heat waves. However, the time it takes for the externally forced signal of climate change to emerge against the background of natural variability (i.e., Time of Emergence, ToE) particularly on the regional scale makes reliable future projection of heat waves challenging. Here, we combine observations and model simulations under present and future climate forcing to assess internal variability versus external forcing in modulating US heat waves. We characterized the most common heat wave patterns over the US by the use of clustering of extreme events by their spatial distribution. For each heat wave cluster, we assess changes in the probability density function (PDF) of summer temperature extremes by modeling the PDF as a stochastically generated skewed (SGS) distribution. The probability of necessary causation for each heat wave cluster was also quantified, allowing to make assessments of heat extreme attribution to anthropogenic climate change. The results suggest that internal variability will dominate heat wave occurrence over the Great Plains with ToE occurring in the 2050s (2070s) and of occurrence of ratio of warm-to-cold extremes of 1.7 (1.7) for the Northern (Southern) Plains. In contrast, external forcing will dominate over the Western (Great Lakes) region with ToE occurring as early as in the 2020s (2030s) and warm-to-cold extremes ratio of 6.4 (10.2), suggesting caution in attributing heat extremes to external forcing due to their regional dependence.

The effect of heat waves on dairy cow mortality.

PubMed

Vitali, A; Felici, A; Esposito, S; Bernabucci, U; Bertocchi, L; Maresca, C; Nardone, A; Lacetera, N

2015-07-01

This study investigated the mortality of dairy cows during heat waves. Mortality data (46,610 cases) referred to dairy cows older than 24mo that died on a farm from all causes from May 1 to September 30 during a 6-yr period (2002-2007). Weather data were obtained from 12 weather stations located in different areas of Italy. Heat waves were defined for each weather station as a period of at least 3 consecutive days, from May 1 to September 30 (2002-2007), when the daily maximum temperature exceeded the 90th percentile of the reference distribution (1971-2000). Summer days were classified as days in heat wave (HW) or not in heat wave (nHW). Days in HW were numbered to evaluate the relationship between mortality and length of the wave. Finally, the first 3 nHW days after the end of a heat wave were also considered to account for potential prolonged effects. The mortality risk was evaluated using a case-crossover design. A conditional logistic regression model was used to calculate odds ratio and 95% confidence interval for mortality recorded in HW compared with that recorded in nHW days pooled and stratified by duration of exposure, age of cows, and month of occurrence. Dairy cows mortality was greater during HW compared with nHW days. Furthermore, compared with nHW days, the risk of mortality continued to be higher during the 3 d after the end of HW. Mortality increased with the length of the HW. Considering deaths stratified by age, cows up to 28mo were not affected by HW, whereas all the other age categories of older cows (29-60, 61-96, and >96mo) showed a greater mortality when exposed to HW. The risk of death during HW was higher in early summer months. In particular, the highest risk of mortality was observed during June HW. Present results strongly support the implementation of adaptation strategies which may limit heat stress-related impairment of animal welfare and economic losses in dairy cow farm during HW. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science

Evaluation of major heat waves' mechanisms in EURO-CORDEX RCMs over Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lhotka, Ondřej; Kyselý, Jan; Plavcová, Eva

2018-06-01

The main aim of the study is to evaluate the capability of EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate major heat waves in Central Europe and their associated meteorological factors. Three reference major heat waves (1994, 2006, and 2015) were identified in the E-OBS gridded data set, based on their temperature characteristics, length and spatial extent. Atmospheric circulation, precipitation, net shortwave radiation, and evaporative fraction anomalies during these events were assessed using the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The analogous major heat waves and their links to the aforementioned factors were analysed in an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX RCMs driven by various global climate models in the 1970-2016 period. All three reference major heat waves were associated with favourable circulation conditions, precipitation deficit, reduced evaporative fraction and increased net shortwave radiation. This joint contribution of large-scale circulation and land-atmosphere interactions is simulated with difficulties in majority of the RCMs, which affects the magnitude of modelled major heat waves. In some cases, the seemingly good reproduction of major heat waves' magnitude is erroneously achieved through extremely favourable circulation conditions compensated by a substantial surplus of soil moisture or vice versa. These findings point to different driving mechanisms of major heat waves in some RCMs compared to observations, which should be taken into account when analysing and interpreting future projections of these events.

Multivariate Statistical Modelling of Drought and Heat Wave Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manning, Colin; Widmann, Martin; Vrac, Mathieu; Maraun, Douglas; Bevaqua, Emanuele

2016-04-01

Multivariate Statistical Modelling of Drought and Heat Wave Events C. Manning1,2, M. Widmann1, M. Vrac2, D. Maraun3, E. Bevaqua2,3 1. School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK 2. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, (LSCE-IPSL), Centre d'Etudes de Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France 3. Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Brandhofgasse 5, 8010 Graz, Austria Compound extreme events are a combination of two or more contributing events which in themselves may not be extreme but through their joint occurrence produce an extreme impact. Compound events are noted in the latest IPCC report as an important type of extreme event that have been given little attention so far. As part of the CE:LLO project (Compound Events: muLtivariate statisticaL mOdelling) we are developing a multivariate statistical model to gain an understanding of the dependence structure of certain compound events. One focus of this project is on the interaction between drought and heat wave events. Soil moisture has both a local and non-local effect on the occurrence of heat waves where it strongly controls the latent heat flux affecting the transfer of sensible heat to the atmosphere. These processes can create a feedback whereby a heat wave maybe amplified or suppressed by the soil moisture preconditioning, and vice versa, the heat wave may in turn have an effect on soil conditions. An aim of this project is to capture this dependence in order to correctly describe the joint probabilities of these conditions and the resulting probability of their compound impact. We will show an application of Pair Copula Constructions (PCCs) to study the aforementioned compound event. PCCs allow in theory for the formulation of multivariate dependence structures in any dimension where the PCC is a decomposition of a multivariate distribution into a product of bivariate components modelled using copulas. A

Did we see the 2011 summer heat wave coming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Lifeng; Zhang, Yan

2012-05-01

A series of climate extreme events affected many parts of the US during 2011, including the severe drought in Texas, the spring tornado outbreak in the southern states, and the weeklong summer heat wave in the Central Plains. Successful prediction of these events can better inform and prepare the general public to cope with these extremes. In this study, we investigate the operational capability of the new NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) in predicting the 2011 summer heat wave. We found that starting from April 2011, the operational CFSv2 forecast consistently suggested an elevated probability of extremely hot days during the forthcoming summer over the Central Plains, and as the summer was approaching the forecast became more certain about the summer heat wave in its geographic location, intensity and timing. This study demonstrates the capability of the new seasonal forecast system and its potential usefulness in decision making process.

New thermal wave aspects on burn evaluation of skin subjected to instantaneous heating.

PubMed

Liu, J; Chen, X; Xu, L X

1999-04-01

Comparative studies on the well-known Pennes' equation and the newly developed thermal wave model of bioheat transfer (TWMBT) were performed to investigate the wave like behaviors of bioheat transfer occurred in thermal injury of biological bodies. The one-dimensional TWMBT in a finite medium was solved using separation of variables and the analytical solution showed distinctive wave behaviors of bioheat transfer in skin subjected to instantaneous heating. The finite difference method was used to simulate and study practical problems involved in burn injuries in which skin was stratified as three layers with various thermal physical properties. Deviations between the TWMBT and the traditional Pennes' equation imply that, for high flux heating with extremely short duration (i.e., flash fire), the TWMBT which accounts for finite thermal wave propagation may provide realistic predictions on burn evaluation. A general heat flux criterion has been established to determine when the thermal wave propagation dominates the principal heat transfer process and the TWMBT can be used for tissue temperature prediction and burn evaluation. A preliminary interpretation on the mechanisms of the wave like behaviors of heat transfer in living tissues was conducted. The application of thermal wave theory can also be possibly extended to other medical problems which involve instantaneous heating or cooling.

Solar Jets as Sources of Outflows, Heating and Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishizuka, N.

2013-05-01

Recent space solar observations of the Sun, such as Hinode and SDO, have revealed that magnetic reconnection is ubiquitous in the solar atmosphere, ranging from small scale reconnection (observed as nanoflares) to large scale one (observed as long duration flares or giant arcades). Especially recent Hinode observations has found various types of tiny chromospheric jets, such as chromospheric anemone jets, penumbral microjets and light bridge jets from sunspot umbra. It was also found that the corona is full of tiny X-ray jets. Often they are seen as helical spinning jets with Alfvenic waves in the corona. Sometimes they are seen as chromospheric jets with slow-mode magnetoacoustic waves and sometimes as unresolved jet-like events at the footpoint of recurrent outflows and waves at the edge of the active region. There is increasing evidence of magnetic reconnection in these tiny jets and its association with waves. The origin of outflows and waves is one of the issues concerning coronal heating and solar wind acceleration. To answer this question, we had a challenge to reproduce solar jets with laboratory plasma experiment and directly measured outflows and waves. As a result, we could find a propagating wave excited by magnetic reconnection, whose energy flux is 10% of the released magnetic energy. That is enough for solar wind acceleration and locally enough for coronal heating, consistent with numerical MHD simulations of solar jets. Here we would discuss recent observations with Hinode, theories and experimental results related to jets and waves by magnetic reconnection, and discuss possible implication to reconnection physics, coronal heating and solar wind acceleration.

Changes in heat waves indices in Romania over the period 1961-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croitoru, Adina-Eliza; Piticar, Adrian; Ciupertea, Antoniu-Flavius; Roşca, Cristina Florina

2016-11-01

In the last two decades many climate change studies have focused on extreme temperatures as they have a significant impact on environment and society. Among the weather events generated by extreme temperatures, heat waves are some of the most harmful. The main objective of this study was to detect and analyze changes in heat waves in Romania based on daily observation data (maximum and minimum temperature) over the extended summer period (May-Sept) using a set of 10 indices and to explore the spatial patterns of changes. Heat wave data series were derived from daily maximum and minimum temperature data sets recorded in 29 weather stations across Romania over a 55-year period (1961-2015). In this study, the threshold chosen was the 90th percentile calculated based on a 15-day window centered on each calendar day, and for three baseline periods (1961-1990, 1971-2000, and 1981-2010). Two heat wave definitions were considered: at least three consecutive days when maximum temperature exceeds 90th percentile, and at least three consecutive days when minimum temperature exceeds 90th percentile. For each of them, five variables were calculated: amplitude, magnitude, number of events, duration, and frequency. Finally, 10 indices resulted for further analysis. The main results are: most of the indices have statistically significant increasing trends; only one index for one weather station indicated statistically significant decreasing trend; the changes are more intense in case of heat waves detected based on maximum temperature compared to those obtained for heat waves identified based on minimum temperature; western and central regions of Romania are the most exposed to increasing heat waves.

Impact of extreme high temperature on mortality and regional level definition of heat wave: a multi-city study in China.

PubMed

Gao, Jinghong; Sun, Yunzong; Liu, Qiyong; Zhou, Maigeng; Lu, Yaogui; Li, Liping

2015-02-01

Few multi-city studies have been conducted to explore the regional level definition of heat wave and examine the association between extreme high temperature and mortality in developing countries. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the impact of extreme high temperature on mortality and to explore the local definition of heat wave in five Chinese cities. We first used a distributed lag non-linear model to characterize the effects of daily mean temperature on non-accidental mortality. We then employed a generalized additive model to explore the city-specific definition of heat wave. Finally, we performed a comparative analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of the definition. For each city, we found a positive non-linear association between extreme high temperature and mortality, with the highest effects appearing within 3 days of extreme heat event onset. Specifically, we defined individual heat waves of Beijing and Tianjin as being two or more consecutive days with daily mean temperatures exceeding 30.2 °C and 29.5 °C, respectively, and Nanjing, Shanghai and Changsha heat waves as ≥3 consecutive days with daily mean temperatures higher than 32.9 °C, 32.3 °C and 34.5 °C, respectively. Comparative analysis generally supported the definition. We found extreme high temperatures were associated with increased mortality, after a short lag period, when temperatures exceeded obvious threshold levels. The city-specific definition of heat wave developed in our study may provide guidance for the establishment and implementation of early heat-health response systems for local government to deal with the projected negative health outcomes due to heat waves. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global climate change: impact of heat waves under different definitions on daily mortality in Wuhan, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Yunquan; Feng, Renjie; Wu, Ran; Zhong, Peirong; Tan, Xiaodong; Wu, Kai; Ma, Lu

2017-01-01

There was no consistent definition for heat wave worldwide, while a limited number of studies have compared the mortality effect of heat wave as defined differently. This paper aimed to provide epidemiological evidence for policy makers to determine the most appropriate definition for local heat wave warning systems. We developed 45 heat wave definitions (HWs) combining temperature indicators and temperature thresholds with durations. We then assessed the impact of heat waves under various definitions on non-accidental mortality in hot season (May-September) in Wuhan, China during 2003-2010. Heat waves defined by HW14 (daily mean temperature ≥ 99.0th percentile and duration ≥ 3 days) had the best predictive ability in assessing the mortality effects of heat wave with the relative risk of 1.63 (95% CI : 1.43, 1.89) for total mortality. The group-specific mortality risk using official heat wave definition of Chinese Meteorological Administration was much smaller than that using HW14. We also found that women, and the elderly (age ≥ 65) were more susceptible to heat wave effects which were stronger and longer lasting. These findings suggest that region specific heat wave definitions are crucial and necessary for developing efficient local heat warning systems and for providing evidence for policy makers to protect the vulnerable population.

Attributing anthropogenic impact on regional heat wave events using CAM5 model large ensemble simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, S. H.; Chen, C. T.

2017-12-01

Extreme heat waves have serious impacts on society. It was argued that the anthropogenic forcing might substantially increase the risk of extreme heat wave events (e.g. over western Europe in 2003 and over Russia in 2010). However, the regional dependence of such anthropogenic impact and the sensitivity of the attributed risk to the definition of heat wave still require further studies. In our research framework, the change in the frequency and severity of a heat wave event under current conditions is calculated and compared with the probability and magnitude of the event if the effects of particular external forcing, such as due to human influence, had been absent. In our research, we use the CAM5 large ensemble simulation from the CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project (http://portal.nersc.gov/c20c/main.html, Folland et al. 2014) to detect the heat wave events occurred in both historical all forcing run and natural forcing only run. The heat wave events are identified by partial duration series method (Huth et al., 2000). We test the sensitivity of heat wave thresholds from daily maximum temperature (Tmax) in warm season (from May to September) between 1959 and 2013. We consider the anthropogenic effect on the later period (2000-2013) when the warming due to human impact is more evident. Using Taiwan and surrounding area as our preliminary research target, We found the anthropogenic effect will increase the heat wave day per year from 30 days to 75 days and make the mean starting(ending) day for heat waves events about 15-30 days earlier(later). Using the Fraction of Attribution Risk analysis to estimate the risk of frequency of heat wave day, our results show the anthropogenic forcing very likely increase the heat wave days over Taiwan by more than 50%. Further regional differences and sensitivity of the attributed risk to the definition of heat wave will be compared and discussed.

Techniques that Link Extreme Events to the Large Scale, Applied to California Heat Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grotjahn, R.

2015-12-01

Understanding the mechanisms how Californian Central Valley (CCV) summer extreme hot spells develop is very important since the events have major impacts on the economy and human safety. Results from a series of CCV heat wave studies will be presented, emphasizing the techniques used. Key larger scale elements are identified statistically that are also consistent with synoptic and dynamic understanding of what must be present during extreme heat. Beyond providing a clear synoptic explanation, these key elements have high predictability, in part because soil moisture has little annual variation in the heavily-irrigated CCV. In turn, the predictability naturally leads to an effective tool to assess climate model simulation of these heat waves in historical and future climate scenarios. (Does the model develop extreme heat for the correct reasons?) Further work identified that these large scale elements arise in two quite different ways: one from expansion southwestward of a pre-existing heat wave in southwest Canada, the other formed in place from parcels traversing the North Pacific. The pre-existing heat wave explains an early result showing correlation between heat waves in Sacramento California, and other locations along the US west coast, including distant Seattle Washington. CCV heat waves can be preceded by unusually strong tropical Indian Ocean and Indonesian convection, this partial link may occur through an Asian subtropical jet wave guide. Another link revealed by diagnostics is a middle and higher latitude source of wave activity in Siberia and East Asia that also leads to the development of the CCV heat wave. This talk will address as many of these results and the tools used to obtain them as is reasonable within the available time.

Acceleration and heating of two-fluid solar wind by Alfven waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sandbaek, Ornulf; Leer, Egil

1994-01-01

Earlier model studies of solar wind driven by thermal pressure and Alfven waves have shown that wave amplitudes of 20-30 km/s at the coronal base are sufficient to accelerate the flow to the high speeds observed in quasi-steady streams emanating from large coronal holes. We focus on the energy balance in the proton gas and show that heat conduction from the region where the waves are dissipated may play an important role in determining the proton temperature at the orbit of Earth. In models with 'classical' heat conduction we find a correlation between high flow speed, high proton temperature, and low electron temperature at 1 AU. The effect of wave heating on the development of anisotropies in the solar wind proton gas pressure is also investigated in this study.

The great 2006 heat wave over California and Nevada: Signal of an increasing trend

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gershunov, A.; Cayan, D.R.; Iacobellis, S.F.

2009-01-01

Most of the great California-Nevada heat waves can be classified into primarily daytime or nighttime events depending on whether atmospheric conditions are dry or humid. A rash of nighttime-accentuated events in the last decade was punctuated by an unusually intense case in July 2006, which was the largest heat wave on record (1948-2006). Generally, there is a positive trend in heat wave activity over the entire region that is expressed most strongly and clearly in nighttime rather than daytime temperature extremes. This trend in nighttime heat wave activity has intensified markedly since the 1980s and especially since 2000. The two most recent nighttime heat waves were also strongly expressed in extreme daytime temperatures. Circulations associated with great regional heat waves advect hot air into the region. This air can be dry or moist, depending on whether a moisture source is available, causing heat waves to be expressed preferentially during day or night. A remote moisture source centered within a marine region west of Baja California has been increasing in prominence because of gradual sea surface warming and a related increase in atmospheric humidity. Adding to the very strong synoptic dynamics during the 2006 heat wave were a prolonged stream of moisture from this southwestern source and, despite the heightened humidity, an environment in which afternoon convection was suppressed, keeping cloudiness low and daytime temperatures high. The relative contributions of these factors and possible relations to global warming are discussed. ?? 2009 American Meteorological Society.

Upper Atmosphere Heating From Ocean-Generated Acoustic Wave Energy

DOE PAGES

Bowman, D. C.; Lees, J. M.

2018-04-27

We present that colliding sea surface waves generate the ocean microbarom, an acoustic signal that may transmit significant energy to the upper atmosphere. Previous estimates of acoustic energy flux from the ocean microbarom and mountain-wind interactions are on the order of 0.01 to 1 mW/m 2, heating the thermosphere by tens of Kelvins per day. We captured upgoing ocean microbarom waves with a balloon-borne infrasound microphone; the maximum acoustic energy flux was approximately 0.05 mW/m 2. This is about half the average value reported in previous ground-based microbarom observations spanning 8 years. The acoustic flux from the microbarom episode describedmore » here may have heated the thermosphere by several Kelvins per day while the source persisted. Lastly, we suggest that ocean wave models could be used to parameterize acoustically generated heating of the upper atmosphere based on sea state.« less

Upper Atmosphere Heating From Ocean-Generated Acoustic Wave Energy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bowman, D. C.; Lees, J. M.

We present that colliding sea surface waves generate the ocean microbarom, an acoustic signal that may transmit significant energy to the upper atmosphere. Previous estimates of acoustic energy flux from the ocean microbarom and mountain-wind interactions are on the order of 0.01 to 1 mW/m 2, heating the thermosphere by tens of Kelvins per day. We captured upgoing ocean microbarom waves with a balloon-borne infrasound microphone; the maximum acoustic energy flux was approximately 0.05 mW/m 2. This is about half the average value reported in previous ground-based microbarom observations spanning 8 years. The acoustic flux from the microbarom episode describedmore » here may have heated the thermosphere by several Kelvins per day while the source persisted. Lastly, we suggest that ocean wave models could be used to parameterize acoustically generated heating of the upper atmosphere based on sea state.« less

In Situ Observations of Harmonic Alfvén Waves and Associated Heavy Ion Heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Huayue; Gao, Xinliang; Lu, Quanming; Wang, Shui

2018-06-01

Resonant ion heating by high-frequency Alfvén waves has long been believed to be the primary dissipation mechanism for solar coronal heating, and these high-frequency Alfvén waves are considered to be generated via cascade from low-frequency Alfvén waves. In this study, we report an unusual harmonic Alfvén event from in situ observations by the Van Allen Probes in the magnetosphere, having an environment similar to that in the solar corona. The harmonic Alfvén waves, which propagate almost along the wave vector of the fundamental waves, are considered to be generated due to the interaction between quasi-parallel Alfvén waves and plasma density fluctuations with almost identical frequency. These high-frequency harmonic Alfvén waves can then cyclotron resonantly heat the heavy ions. Our observations provide an important insight into solar corona heating by Alfvén waves.

Heating by transverse waves in simulated coronal loops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karampelas, K.; Van Doorsselaere, T.; Antolin, P.

2017-08-01

Context. Recent numerical studies of oscillating flux tubes have established the significance of resonant absorption in the damping of propagating transverse oscillations in coronal loops. The nonlinear nature of the mechanism has been examined alongside the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability, which is expected to manifest in the resonant layers at the edges of the flux tubes. While these two processes have been hypothesized to heat coronal loops through the dissipation of wave energy into smaller scales, the occurring mixing with the hotter surroundings can potentially hide this effect. Aims: We aim to study the effects of wave heating from driven and standing kink waves in a coronal loop. Methods: Using the MPI-AMRVAC code, we perform ideal, three dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of both (a) footpoint driven and (b) free standing oscillations in a straight coronal flux tube, in the presence of numerical resistivity. Results: We have observed the development of Kelvin-Helmholtz eddies at the loop boundary layer of all three models considered here, as well as an increase of the volume averaged temperature inside the loop. The main heating mechanism in our setups was Ohmic dissipation, as indicated by the higher values for the temperatures and current densities located near the footpoints. The introduction of a temperature gradient between the inner tube and the surrounding plasma, suggests that the mixing of the two regions, in the case of hotter environment, greatly increases the temperature of the tube at the site of the strongest turbulence, beyond the contribution of the aforementioned wave heating mechanism. Three movies associated to Fig. 1 are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Effects of Autumn and Spring Heat Waves on Seed Germination of High Mountain Plants.

PubMed

Orsenigo, Simone; Abeli, Thomas; Rossi, Graziano; Bonasoni, Paolo; Pasquaretta, Cristian; Gandini, Maurizia; Mondoni, Andrea

2015-01-01

Alpine plants are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and related extreme episodes, such as heat waves. Despite growing interest in the impact of heat waves on alpine plants, knowledge about their effects on regeneration is still fragmentary. Recruitment from seeds will be crucial for the successful migration and survival of these species and will play a key role in their future adaptation to climate change. In this study, we assessed the impacts of heat waves on the seed germination of 53 high mountain plants from the Northern Apennines (Italy). The seeds were exposed to laboratory simulations of three seasonal temperature treatments, derived from real data recorded at a meteorological station near the species growing site, which included two heat wave episodes that occurred both in spring 2003 and in autumn 2011. Moreover, to consider the effect of increasing drought conditions related to heat waves, seed germination was also investigated under four different water potentials. In the absence of heat waves, seed germination mainly occurred in spring, after seeds had experienced autumn and winter seasons. However, heat waves resulted in a significant increase of spring germination in c. 30% of the species and elicited autumn germination in 50%. When heat waves were coupled with drought, seed germination decreased in all species, but did not stop completely. Our results suggest that in the future, heat waves will affect the germination phenology of alpine plants, especially conditionally dormant and strictly cold-adapted chorotypes, by shifting the emergence time from spring to autumn and by increasing the proportion of emerged seedlings. The detrimental effects of heat waves on recruitment success is less likely to be due to the inhibition of seed germination per se, but rather due to seedling survival in seasons, and temperature and water conditions that they are not used to experiencing. Changes in the proportion and timing of emergence

Effects of Autumn and Spring Heat Waves on Seed Germination of High Mountain Plants

PubMed Central

Orsenigo, Simone; Abeli, Thomas; Rossi, Graziano; Bonasoni, Paolo; Pasquaretta, Cristian; Gandini, Maurizia; Mondoni, Andrea

2015-01-01

Alpine plants are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and related extreme episodes, such as heat waves. Despite growing interest in the impact of heat waves on alpine plants, knowledge about their effects on regeneration is still fragmentary. Recruitment from seeds will be crucial for the successful migration and survival of these species and will play a key role in their future adaptation to climate change. In this study, we assessed the impacts of heat waves on the seed germination of 53 high mountain plants from the Northern Apennines (Italy). The seeds were exposed to laboratory simulations of three seasonal temperature treatments, derived from real data recorded at a meteorological station near the species growing site, which included two heat wave episodes that occurred both in spring 2003 and in autumn 2011. Moreover, to consider the effect of increasing drought conditions related to heat waves, seed germination was also investigated under four different water potentials. In the absence of heat waves, seed germination mainly occurred in spring, after seeds had experienced autumn and winter seasons. However, heat waves resulted in a significant increase of spring germination in c. 30% of the species and elicited autumn germination in 50%. When heat waves were coupled with drought, seed germination decreased in all species, but did not stop completely. Our results suggest that in the future, heat waves will affect the germination phenology of alpine plants, especially conditionally dormant and strictly cold-adapted chorotypes, by shifting the emergence time from spring to autumn and by increasing the proportion of emerged seedlings. The detrimental effects of heat waves on recruitment success is less likely to be due to the inhibition of seed germination per se, but rather due to seedling survival in seasons, and temperature and water conditions that they are not used to experiencing. Changes in the proportion and timing of emergence

CLOSED-FIELD CORONAL HEATING DRIVEN BY WAVE TURBULENCE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Downs, Cooper; Lionello, Roberto; Mikić, Zoran

To simulate the energy balance of coronal plasmas on macroscopic scales, we often require the specification of the coronal heating mechanism in some functional form. To go beyond empirical formulations and to build a more physically motivated heating function, we investigate the wave-turbulence-driven (WTD) phenomenology for the heating of closed coronal loops. Our implementation is designed to capture the large-scale propagation, reflection, and dissipation of wave turbulence along a loop. The parameter space of this model is explored by solving the coupled WTD and hydrodynamic evolution in 1D for an idealized loop. The relevance to a range of solar conditionsmore » is also established by computing solutions for over one hundred loops extracted from a realistic 3D coronal field. Due to the implicit dependence of the WTD heating model on loop geometry and plasma properties along the loop and at the footpoints, we find that this model can significantly reduce the number of free parameters when compared to traditional empirical heating models, and still robustly describe a broad range of quiet-Sun and active region conditions. The importance of the self-reflection term in producing relatively short heating scale heights and thermal nonequilibrium cycles is also discussed.« less

Closed-field Coronal Heating Driven by Wave Turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downs, Cooper; Lionello, Roberto; Mikić, Zoran; Linker, Jon A.; Velli, Marco

2016-12-01

To simulate the energy balance of coronal plasmas on macroscopic scales, we often require the specification of the coronal heating mechanism in some functional form. To go beyond empirical formulations and to build a more physically motivated heating function, we investigate the wave-turbulence-driven (WTD) phenomenology for the heating of closed coronal loops. Our implementation is designed to capture the large-scale propagation, reflection, and dissipation of wave turbulence along a loop. The parameter space of this model is explored by solving the coupled WTD and hydrodynamic evolution in 1D for an idealized loop. The relevance to a range of solar conditions is also established by computing solutions for over one hundred loops extracted from a realistic 3D coronal field. Due to the implicit dependence of the WTD heating model on loop geometry and plasma properties along the loop and at the footpoints, we find that this model can significantly reduce the number of free parameters when compared to traditional empirical heating models, and still robustly describe a broad range of quiet-Sun and active region conditions. The importance of the self-reflection term in producing relatively short heating scale heights and thermal nonequilibrium cycles is also discussed.

Unsteady heat-flux measurements of second-mode instability waves in a hypersonic flat-plate boundary layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kegerise, Michael A.; Rufer, Shann J.

2016-08-01

In this paper, we report on the application of the atomic layer thermopile (ALTP) heat-flux sensor to the measurement of laminar-to-turbulent transition in a hypersonic flat-plate boundary layer. The centerline of the flat-plate model was instrumented with a streamwise array of ALTP sensors, and the flat-plate model was exposed to a Mach 6 freestream over a range of unit Reynolds numbers. Here, we observed an unstable band of frequencies that are associated with second-mode instability waves in the laminar boundary layer that forms on the flat-plate surface. The measured frequencies, group velocities, phase speeds, and wavelengths of these instability waves are consistent with data previously reported in the literature. Heat flux time series, and the Morlet wavelet transforms of them, revealed the wave-packet nature of the second-mode instability waves. In addition, a laser-based radiative heating system was used to measure the frequency response functions (FRF) of the ALTP sensors used in the wind tunnel test. These measurements were used to assess the stability of the sensor FRFs over time and to correct spectral estimates for any attenuation caused by the finite sensor bandwidth.

Climate change and heat waves in Paris and London metropolitan areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dousset, B.

2010-12-01

Summer warming trends in Western and Central Europe and in Mediterranean regions are increasing the incidence, intensity, and duration of heat waves. Those extreme events are especially deadly in large cities, owing to high population densities, surface characteristics, heat island effects, anthropogenic heat and pollutants. In August 2003, a persistent anticyclone over Western Europe generated a heat wave of exceptional strength and duration with an estimated death toll of 70,000, including 4678 in the Paris region. A series of NOAA-AVHRR satellite thermal images over the Paris and London metropolitan areas, were used to analyze Land Surface Temperature (LST) and its related mortality. In the Paris region, LSTs were merged with land use and cover data to identify risk areas, and thermal indicators were produced at the addresses of ~ 500 elderly people to assess diurnal heat exposure. Results indicate: (i) contrasting night time and daytime heat island patterns related to land use and surface characteristics; (ii) the relation between night-time heat islands and heat waves intensity; (iii) the impact of elevated minimal temperatures on excess mortality, with a 0.5 °C increase doubling the risk of death, (in the temperature range of the heatwave); iv) the correlation between the spatial distribution of highest night-time LSTs and that of highest mortality ratios; and v) the significant impact of urban parks in the partitioning between latent and sensible surface heat fluxes, despite a prior warm and dry spring. Near-real time satellite monitoring of heat waves in urban areas improve our understanding of the LST processes and spatial variability, and of the related heat stress and mortality. These observations provide criteria for warning systems, contingency policies and planning, and climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Projection of heat waves over China for eight different global warming targets using 12 CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Xiaojun; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Zhao, Zongci; Xu, Ying

2017-05-01

Simulation and projection of the characteristics of heat waves over China were investigated using 12 CMIP5 global climate models and the CN05.1 observational gridded dataset. Four heat wave indices (heat wave frequency, longest heat wave duration, heat wave days, and high temperature days) were adopted in the analysis. Evaluations of the 12 CMIP5 models and their ensemble indicated that the multi-model ensemble could capture the spatiotemporal characteristics of heat wave variation over China. The inter-decadal variations of heat waves during 1961-2005 can be well simulated by multi-model ensemble. Based on model projections, the features of heat waves over China for eight different global warming targets (1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, 3.5, 4.0, 4.5, and 5.0 °C) were explored. The results showed that the frequency and intensity of heat waves would increase more dramatically as the global mean temperature rise attained higher warming targets. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the four China-averaged heat wave indices would increase from about 1.0 times/year, 2.5, 5.4, and 13.8 days/year to about 3.2 times/year, 14.0, 32.0, and 31.9 days/year for 1.5 and 5.0 °C warming targets, respectively. Those regions that suffer severe heat waves in the base climate would experience the heat waves with greater frequency and severity following global temperature rise. It is also noteworthy that the areas in which a greater number of severe heat waves occur displayed considerable expansion. Moreover, the model uncertainties exhibit a gradual enhancement with projected time extending from 2006 to 2099.

The role of spring precipitation deficits on European and North American summer heat wave activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowan, Tim; Hegerl, Gabi

2017-04-01

Heat waves are relatively short-term climate phenomena with potentially severe societal impacts, particularly on health, agriculture and the natural environment. In water-limited regions, increased heat wave activity over intra-decadal periods is often associated with protracted droughts, as observed over North America's Central and Southern Great Plains in the 1930s and 1950s, highlighting the importance of land surface-atmosphere feedbacks. Here we present an analysis of the covariability of spring precipitation deficit and summer heat waves for North America and Europe, the latter having experienced an increase in summer heat wave frequency since the 1950s (Perkins et al. 2012). Over the Great Plains summer heat waves are significantly earlier, longer and hotter if following dry rather than wet springs, with the mega-heat waves of the 1930s Dust Bowl decade an extreme example (e.g. Cowan et al. 2017). Similar relationships can be found in some parts of Europe for heat wave frequency and duration, namely Southern and Eastern Europe, although the heat wave timing and amplitude (i.e. the hottest events) appear less sensitive to spring drying. Climate model results investigating the relationship between heat waves and precipitation deficit in regions in Europe and North America will also be presented. It is necessary to pinpoint the causes of large decadal variations in heat wave metrics, as seen in the 1930s over North America and more recently across Central Europe, for event attribution purposes and to improve near-decadal prediction. The tight link between spring drought and summer heat waves will also be important for understanding the impacts of these climatic events and supports the development of compound event analysis techniques. References: Cowan, T., G. Hegerl, I. Colfescu, A. Purich and G. Boshcat (2016), Factors contributing to record-breaking heat waves over the Great Plains during the 1930s Dust Bowl. Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16

Solar off-limb line widths: Alfvén waves, ion-cyclotron waves, and preferential heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolla, L.; Solomon, J.

2008-05-01

Context: Alfvén waves and ion-cyclotron absorption of high-frequency waves are frequently brought into models devoted to coronal heating and fast solar-wind acceleration. Signatures of ion-cyclotron resonance have already been observed in situ in the solar wind (HELIOS spacecrafts) and, recently, in the upper corona (UVCS/SOHO remote-sensing results). Aims: We propose a method to constrain both the Alfvén wave amplitude and the preferential heating induced by ion-cyclotron resonance, above a partially developed polar coronal hole observed with the SUMER/SOHO spectrometer. Methods: The instrumental stray light contribution is first substracted from the spectra. By supposing that the non-thermal velocity is related to the Alfvén wave amplitude, it is constrained through a density diagnostic and the gradient of the width of the Mg X 625 Å line. The temperatures of several coronal ions, as functions of the distance above the limb, are then determined by substracting the non-thermal component to the observed line widths. Results: The effect of stray light explains the apparent decrease with height in the width of several spectral lines, this decrease usually starting about 0.1-0.2 R_⊙ above the limb. This result rules out any direct evidence of damping of the Alfvén waves, often suggested by other authors. We also find that the ions with the smallest charge-to-mass ratios are the hottest ones at a fixed altitude and that they are subject to a stronger heating, as compared to the others, between 57´´ and 102´´ above the limb. This constitutes a serious clue to ion-cyclotron preferential heating.

Resonance in fast-wave amplitude in the periphery of cylindrical plasmas and application to edge losses of wave heating power in tokamaks

DOE PAGES

Perkins, R. J.; Hosea, J. C.; Bertelli, N.; ...

2016-07-01

Heating magnetically confined plasmas using waves in the ion-cyclotron range of frequencies typically requires coupling these waves over a steep density gradient. Furthermore, this process has produced an unexpected and deleterious phenomenon on the National Spherical Torus eXperiment (NSTX): a prompt loss of wave power along magnetic field lines in front of the antenna to the divertor. Understanding this loss may be key to achieving effective heating and expanding the operational space of NSTX-Upgrade. Here, we propose that a new type of mode, which conducts a significant fraction of the total wave power in the low-density peripheral plasma, is drivingmore » these losses. We demonstrate the existence of such modes, which are distinct from surface modes and coaxial modes, in a cylindrical cold-plasma model when a half wavelength structure fits into the region outside the core plasma. The latter condition generalizes the previous hypothesis regarding the occurence of the edge losses and may explain why full-wave simulations predict these losses in some cases but not others. If valid, this condition implies that outer gap control is a potential strategy for mitigating the losses in NSTX-Upgrade in addition to raising the magnetic field or influencing the edge density.« less

A novel approach for detecting heat waves: the Standardized Heat-Wave Index.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucchi, Marco; Petitta, Marcello; Calmanti, Sandro

2016-04-01

Extreme temperatures have an impact on the energy balance of any living organism and on the operational capabilities of critical infrastructures. The ability to capture the occurrence of extreme temperature events is therefore an essential property of a multi-hazard extreme climate indicator. In this paper we introduce a new index for the detection of such extreme temperature events called SHI (Standardized Heat-Wave Index), developed in the context of XCF project for the construction of a multi-hazard extreme climate indicator (ECI). SHI is a probabilistic index based on the analysis of maximum daily temperatures time series; it is standardized, enabling comparisons overs space/time and with other indices, and it is capable of describing both extreme cold and hot events. Given a particular location, SHI is constructed using the time series of local maximum daily temperatures with the following procedure: three-days cumulated maximum daily temperatures are assigned to each day of the time series; probabilities of occurrence in the same months the reference days belong to are computed for each of the previous calculated values; such probability values are thus projected on a standard normal distribution, obtaining our standardized indices. In this work we present results obtained using NCEP Reanalysis dataset for air temperature at sigma 0.995 level, which timespan ranges from 1948 to 2014. Given the specific framework of this work, the geographical focus of this study is limited to the African continent. We present a validation of the index by showing its use for monitoring heat-waves under different climate regimes.

Heat-Related Mortality in India: Excess All-Cause Mortality Associated with the 2010 Ahmedabad Heat Wave

PubMed Central

Azhar, Gulrez Shah; Mavalankar, Dileep; Nori-Sarma, Amruta; Rajiva, Ajit; Dutta, Priya; Jaiswal, Anjali; Sheffield, Perry; Knowlton, Kim; Hess, Jeremy J.; Azhar, Gulrez Shah; Deol, Bhaskar; Bhaskar, Priya Shekhar; Hess, Jeremy; Jaiswal, Anjali; Khosla, Radhika; Knowlton, Kim; Mavalankar, Mavalankar; Rajiva, Ajit; Sarma, Amruta; Sheffield, Perry

2014-01-01

Introduction In the recent past, spells of extreme heat associated with appreciable mortality have been documented in developed countries, including North America and Europe. However, far fewer research reports are available from developing countries or specific cities in South Asia. In May 2010, Ahmedabad, India, faced a heat wave where the temperatures reached a high of 46.8°C with an apparent increase in mortality. The purpose of this study is to characterize the heat wave impact and assess the associated excess mortality. Methods We conducted an analysis of all-cause mortality associated with a May 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India, to determine whether extreme heat leads to excess mortality. Counts of all-cause deaths from May 1–31, 2010 were compared with the mean of counts from temporally matched periods in May 2009 and 2011 to calculate excess mortality. Other analyses included a 7-day moving average, mortality rate ratio analysis, and relationship between daily maximum temperature and daily all-cause death counts over the entire year of 2010, using month-wise correlations. Results The May 2010 heat wave was associated with significant excess all-cause mortality. 4,462 all-cause deaths occurred, comprising an excess of 1,344 all-cause deaths, an estimated 43.1% increase when compared to the reference period (3,118 deaths). In monthly pair-wise comparisons for 2010, we found high correlations between mortality and daily maximum temperature during the locally hottest “summer” months of April (r = 0.69, p<0.001), May (r = 0.77, p<0.001), and June (r = 0.39, p<0.05). During a period of more intense heat (May 19–25, 2010), mortality rate ratios were 1.76 [95% CI 1.67–1.83, p<0.001] and 2.12 [95% CI 2.03–2.21] applying reference periods (May 12–18, 2010) from various years. Conclusion The May 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India had a substantial effect on all-cause excess mortality, even in this city where hot

The extreme heat wave in Athens in July 1987 from the point of view of human biometeorology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matzarakis, Andreas; Mayer, Helmut

At the end of July 1987 a heat wave came over Greece and had as a consequence an increase in the mortality to double the normal values. Predicted mean vote ( PMV), physiologically equivalent temperature ( PET), and for comparison discomfort index ( DI) as thermal indices as well as core temperature, mean skin temperature, and skin wetness as body parameters are calculated for that period based on meteorological data of the Meteorological Institute of the National Observatory in the centre of Athens and of the suburban station New Philadelphia of the Hellenic National Weather Service. The results for the thermal indices and the body parameters indicate a very high thermal stress on people. In addition, the air quality stress index ( AQSI) has been used for characterizing air quality conditions in Athens during the heat wave. The results Combined with the thermal effects of the heat wave the stress on humans due to environmental conditions has been very injurious to health.

Heat-flow equation motivated by the ideal-gas shock wave.

PubMed

Holian, Brad Lee; Mareschal, Michel

2010-08-01

We present an equation for the heat-flux vector that goes beyond Fourier's Law of heat conduction, in order to model shockwave propagation in gases. Our approach is motivated by the observation of a disequilibrium among the three components of temperature, namely, the difference between the temperature component in the direction of a planar shock wave, versus those in the transverse directions. This difference is most prominent near the shock front. We test our heat-flow equation for the case of strong shock waves in the ideal gas, which has been studied in the past and compared to Navier-Stokes solutions. The new heat-flow treatment improves the agreement with nonequilibrium molecular-dynamics simulations of hard spheres under strong shockwave conditions.

Wave speed propagation measurements on highly attenuative heated materials

DOE PAGES

Moore, David G.; Ober, Curtis C.; Rodacy, Phil J.; ...

2015-09-19

Ultrasonic wave propagation decreases as a material is heated. Two factors that can characterize material properties are changes in wave speed and energy loss from interactions within the media. Relatively small variations in velocity and attenuation can detect significant differences in microstructures. This paper discusses an overview of experimental techniques that document the changes within a highly attenuative material as it is either being heated or cooled from 25°C to 90°C. The experimental set-up utilizes ultrasonic probes in a through-transmission configuration. The waveforms are recorded and analyzed during thermal experiments. To complement the ultrasonic data, a Discontinuous-Galerkin Model (DGM) wasmore » also created which uses unstructured meshes and documents how waves travel in these anisotropic media. This numerical method solves particle motion travel using partial differential equations and outputs a wave trace per unit time. As a result, both experimental and analytical data are compared and presented.« less

Computational exploration of wave propagation and heating from transcranial focused ultrasound for neuromodulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, Jerel K.; Ai, Leo; Bansal, Priya; Legon, Wynn

2016-10-01

Objective. While ultrasound is largely established for use in diagnostic imaging, its application for neuromodulation is relatively new and crudely understood. The objective of the present study was to investigate the effects of tissue properties and geometry on the wave propagation and heating in the context of transcranial neuromodulation. Approach. A computational model of transcranial-focused ultrasound was constructed and validated against empirical data. The models were then incrementally extended to investigate a number of issues related to the use of ultrasound for neuromodulation, including the effect on wave propagation of variations in geometry of skull and gyral anatomy as well as the effect of multiple tissue and media layers, including scalp, skull, CSF, and gray/white matter. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was run to characterize the influence of acoustic properties of intracranial tissues. Finally, the heating associated with ultrasonic stimulation waveforms designed for neuromodulation was modeled. Main results. The wave propagation of a transcranially focused ultrasound beam is significantly influenced by the cranial domain. The half maximum acoustic beam intensity profiles are insensitive overall to small changes in material properties, though the inclusion of sulci in models results in greater peak intensity values compared to a model without sulci (1%-30% greater). Finally, heating using currently employed stimulation parameters in humans is highest in bone (0.16 °C) and is negligible in brain (4.27 × 10-3 °C) for a 0.5 s exposure. Significance. Ultrasound for noninvasive neuromodulation holds great promise and appeal for its non-invasiveness, high spatial resolution and deep focal lengths. Here we show gross brain anatomy and biological material properties to have limited effect on ultrasound wave propagation and to result in safe heating levels in the skull and brain.

Computational exploration of wave propagation and heating from transcranial focused ultrasound for neuromodulation.

PubMed

Mueller, Jerel K; Ai, Leo; Bansal, Priya; Legon, Wynn

2016-10-01

While ultrasound is largely established for use in diagnostic imaging, its application for neuromodulation is relatively new and crudely understood. The objective of the present study was to investigate the effects of tissue properties and geometry on the wave propagation and heating in the context of transcranial neuromodulation. A computational model of transcranial-focused ultrasound was constructed and validated against empirical data. The models were then incrementally extended to investigate a number of issues related to the use of ultrasound for neuromodulation, including the effect on wave propagation of variations in geometry of skull and gyral anatomy as well as the effect of multiple tissue and media layers, including scalp, skull, CSF, and gray/white matter. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was run to characterize the influence of acoustic properties of intracranial tissues. Finally, the heating associated with ultrasonic stimulation waveforms designed for neuromodulation was modeled. The wave propagation of a transcranially focused ultrasound beam is significantly influenced by the cranial domain. The half maximum acoustic beam intensity profiles are insensitive overall to small changes in material properties, though the inclusion of sulci in models results in greater peak intensity values compared to a model without sulci (1%-30% greater). Finally, heating using currently employed stimulation parameters in humans is highest in bone (0.16 °C) and is negligible in brain (4.27 × 10(-3) °C) for a 0.5 s exposure. Ultrasound for noninvasive neuromodulation holds great promise and appeal for its non-invasiveness, high spatial resolution and deep focal lengths. Here we show gross brain anatomy and biological material properties to have limited effect on ultrasound wave propagation and to result in safe heating levels in the skull and brain.

Enzyme Activity Dynamics in Response to Climate Change: 2011 Drought-Heat Wave

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Extreme weather events such as severe droughts and heat waves may have permanent consequences on soil quality and functioning in agroecosystems. The Southern High Plains (SHP) region of Texas, U.S., a large cotton producing area, experienced a historically extreme drought and heat wave during 2011,...

Numerical study of heating the upper atmosphere by acoustic-gravity waves from a local source on the Earth's surface and influence of this heating on the wave propagation conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpov, I. V.; Kshevetskii, S. P.

2017-11-01

The propagation of acoustic-gravity waves (AGW) from a source on the Earth's surface to the upper atmosphere is investigated with methods of mathematical modeling. The applied non-linear model of wave propagation in the atmosphere is based on numerical integration of a complete set of two-dimensional hydrodynamic equations. The source on the Earth's surface generates waves with frequencies near to the Brunt-Vaisala frequency. The results of simulation have revealed that some region of heating the atmosphere by propagated upward and dissipated AGWs arises above the source at altitudes nearby of 200 km. The horizontal scale of this heated region is about 1000 km in the case of the source that radiates AGWs during approximately 1 h. The appearing of the heated region has changed the conditions of AGW propagation in the atmosphere. When the heated region in the upper atmosphere has been formed, further a waveguide regime of propagation of waves with the periods shorter the Brunt-Vaisala period is realized. The upper boundary of the wave-guide coincides with the arisen heated region in the upper atmosphere. The considered mechanism of formation of large-scale disturbances in the upper atmosphere may be useful for explanation of connections of processes in the upper and lower atmospheric layers.

Coupling of an acoustic wave to shear motion due to viscous heating

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Bin; Goree, J.

2016-07-15

Viscous heating due to shear motion in a plasma can result in the excitation of a longitudinal acoustic wave, if the shear motion is modulated in time. The coupling mechanism is a thermal effect: time-dependent shear motion causes viscous heating, which leads to a rarefaction that can couple into a longitudinal wave, such as an acoustic wave. This coupling mechanism is demonstrated in an electrostatic three-dimensional (3D) simulation of a dusty plasma, in which a localized shear flow is initiated as a pulse, resulting in a delayed outward propagation of a longitudinal acoustic wave. This coupling effect can be profoundmore » in plasmas that exhibit localized viscous heating, such as the dusty plasma we simulated using parameters typical of the PK-4 experiment. We expect that a similar phenomenon can occur with other kinds of plasma waves.« less

Do Heat Waves have an Impact on Terrestrial Water Storage?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brena-Naranjo, A.; Teuling, R.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.

2014-12-01

Recent works have investigated the impact of heat waves on the surface energy and carbon balance. However, less attention has been given to the impacts on terrestrial hydrology. During the summer of 2010, the occurrence of an exceptional heat wave affected severely the Northern Hemisphere. The extension (more than 2 million km2) and severity of this extreme event caused substantial ecosystem damage (more than 1 million ha of forest fires), economic and human losses (~500 billion USD and more than 17 million of indirect deaths, respectively). This work investigates for the first time the impacts of the 2010 summer heat wave on terrestrial water storage. Our study area comprises three different regions where air temperature records were established or almost established during the summer: Western Russia, the Middle East and Eastern Sahel. Anomalies of terrestrial water storage derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) were used to infer water storage deficits during the 2003-2013 period. Our analysis shows that Russia experienced the most severe water storage decline, followed by the Middle East, whereas Eastern Sahel was not significantly affected. The impact of the heat wave was spatially uniform in Russia but highly variable in the Middle East, with the Northern part substantially more affected than the Southern region. Lag times between maxima air temperatures and lower water storage deficits for Russia and the Middle East were approximately two and seven months, respectively. The results suggest that the response of terrestrial water storage to heat waves is stronger in energy-limited environments than in water-limited regions. Such differences in the magnitude and timing between meteorological and hydrological extremes can be explained by the propagation time between atmospheric water demand and natural or anthropogenic sources of water storage.

Climate change induced heat wave hazard in eastern Africa: Dar Es Salaam (Tanzania) and Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capuano, Paolo; Sellerino, Mariangela; Di Ruocco, Angela; Kombe, Wilbard; Yeshitela, Kumelachew

2013-04-01

Last decades, new records were set in the world for tornadoes, drought, wind, floods, wildfires and hot temperatures, testifying unusual weather and climate patterns with increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Extreme heat events are natural hazards affecting many regions in the world, nevertheless limited work has been done on the analysis and effects of extreme heat events in Africa, that is considered a continent particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In fact, the increase of temperature expected in the African continent during the 21st century is larger than the global mean warming, being about 3° to 4° C, about 1.5 times the global temperature increase (Christensen et al., 2007; Gualdi et al., 2012), with the subtropical regions projected to warm more than the tropical regions. Observations and downscaled model simulations (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 IPCC scenarios) are analyzed to describe heat wave characteristics in Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) and Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), spanning the last five decades as well as that projected for the 21st century. Observed data are daily maximum and minimum temperature collected in the period 1961-2011; downscaled model simulations span up to 2050. Heat waves are defined following a peak over threshold approach by statistical comparison to historical meteorological baselines (site dependent), using a fixed absolute threshold. Projected future warming in the Dar es Salaam and Addis Ababa shows a further increase in the heat waves parameters. Heat wave duration and hot days number are strictly correlated showing that the temperature rise could generate not only an increase of heat waves number but mainly a longer average duration, that can strongly affect the resilience capacity of the population, particularly the elder people. In fact, the impacts of heat waves on the society are determined also by temporal duration (Stephenson, 2008), in addition to their frequency, in fact the capacity of

Gravitational Collapse with Heat Flux and Gravitational Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, Zahid; Ahmed, Qazi Zahoor; Awan, Abdul Sami

2013-10-01

In this paper, we investigated the cylindrical gravitational collapse with heat flux by considering the appropriate geometry of the interior and exterior spacetimes. For this purpose, we matched collapsing fluid to an exterior containing gravitational waves.The effects of heat flux on gravitational collapse are investigated and matched with the results obtained by Herrera and Santos (Class. Quantum Gravity 22:2407, 2005).

Ambient temperature and added heat wave effects on hospitalizations in California from 1999 to 2009.

PubMed

Sherbakov, Toki; Malig, Brian; Guirguis, Kristen; Gershunov, Alexander; Basu, Rupa

2018-01-01

Investigators have examined how heat waves or incremental changes in temperature affect health outcomes, but few have examined both simultaneously. We utilized distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) to explore temperature associations and evaluate possible added heat wave effects on hospitalizations in 16 climate zones throughout California from May through October 1999-2009. We define heat waves as a period when daily mean temperatures were above the zone- and month-specific 95th percentile for at least two consecutive days. DLNMs were used to estimate climate zone-specific non-linear temperature and heat wave effects, which were then combined using random effects meta-analysis to produce an overall estimate for each. With higher temperatures, admissions for acute renal failure, appendicitis, dehydration, ischemic stroke, mental health, non-infectious enteritis, and primary diabetes were significantly increased, with added effects from heat waves observed for acute renal failure and dehydration. Higher temperatures also predicted statistically significant decreases in hypertension admissions, respiratory admissions, and respiratory diseases with secondary diagnoses of diabetes, though heat waves independently predicted an added increase in risk for both respiratory types. Our findings provide evidence that both heat wave and temperature exposures can exert effects independently. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Analysis of the Impact of Heat Waves in Labor and Crop Productivity in the Agricultural Sector in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castillo, F.; Wehner, M. F.; Gilless, J. K.

2017-12-01

California agriculture is an important economic activity for the state. California leads the nation in farms sales since 1950. In addition, agricultural employment in California reached approximately 410,000. Production of many fruits and vegetables is labor intensive and labor costs represent anywhere from 20% to 40% of total production costs. In additon, agricutlural production growth has been the highest for labor intensive crops such as berries (all types) and nuts. Given the importance of the agricultural sector and the labor component whithin it, the analysis of the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector of California becomes imperative. Heat waves are a weather related extreme that impact labor productivity, specially outdoor labor producitivity. We use crop production function analysis that incorporates socio economic variables such as crop prices, total acreage, production levels and harvest timiline with climate related variables such as an estimated Heat Index (HI) to analize the impact of heat waves on crop production via an impact on labor productivity for selected crops in the Central and Imperial Valleys in California. The analysis finds that the impact of heat waves varies by the degree of labor intensity of the crop and the relative intensity of the heat wave.

Ion acceleration and heating by kinetic Alfvén waves associated with magnetic reconnection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Ji; Lin, Yu; Johnson, Jay R.; Wang, Zheng-Xiong; Wang, Xueyi

2017-10-01

Our previous study on the generation and signatures of kinetic Alfvén waves (KAWs) associated with magnetic reconnection in a current sheet revealed that KAWs are a common feature during reconnection [Liang et al. J. Geophys. Res.: Space Phys. 121, 6526 (2016)]. In this paper, ion acceleration and heating by the KAWs generated during magnetic reconnection are investigated with a three-dimensional (3-D) hybrid model. It is found that in the outflow region, a fraction of inflow ions are accelerated by the KAWs generated in the leading bulge region of reconnection, and their parallel velocities gradually increase up to slightly super-Alfvénic. As a result of wave-particle interactions, an accelerated ion beam forms in the direction of the anti-parallel magnetic field, in addition to the core ion population, leading to the development of non-Maxwellian velocity distributions, which include a trapped population with parallel velocities consistent with the wave speed. The ions are heated in both parallel and perpendicular directions. In the parallel direction, the heating results from nonlinear Landau resonance of trapped ions. In the perpendicular direction, however, evidence of stochastic heating by the KAWs is found during the acceleration stage, with an increase of magnetic moment μ. The coherence in the perpendicular ion temperature T⊥ and the perpendicular electric and magnetic fields of KAWs also provides evidence for perpendicular heating by KAWs. The parallel and perpendicular heating of the accelerated beam occur simultaneously, leading to the development of temperature anisotropy with T⊥>T∥ . The heating rate agrees with the damping rate of the KAWs, and the heating is dominated by the accelerated ion beam. In the later stage, with the increase of the fraction of the accelerated ions, interaction between the accelerated beam and the core population also contributes to the ion heating, ultimately leading to overlap of the beams and an overall

M-wave normalization of EMG signal to investigate heat stress and fatigue.

PubMed

Girard, Olivier; Bishop, David J; Racinais, Sébastien

2018-05-01

We examined the extent to which peripheral changes affect EMG signal adjustments during repeated sprinting in temperate and hot conditions. Randomised, crossover study. Ten males performed 10×6-s 'all-out' cycling sprints (recovery=30s) in either a temperate (24°C/30%rH) or a hot (35°C/40%rH) environment with concomitant surface EMG recordings of the vastus lateralis (VL) and rectus femoris (RF). In addition, peak-to-peak M-wave amplitudes were obtained for each muscle after each sprint (i.e., 15s into recovery). For both the VL and RF muscles RMS decreased across sprint repetitions (P<0.01), while significantly lower values for the VL (P=0.012), but not the RF (P=0.096), occurred in hot vs. temperate conditions. M-wave-normalised RMS for VL muscle decreased across sprint repetitions (P=0.030), with no condition or interaction effects (both P>0.621). M-wave-normalised RMS for the RF muscle was lower in the heat (P<0.034), with no significant sprint or interaction effects (both P>0.240). Controlling for changes in maximal M-wave amplitude of the quadriceps muscles after each bout of a repeated cycling exercise in hot and temperate conditions allows researchers to account for fatigue- and/or heat-induced neural and peripheral adjustments. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new perspective on the 1930s mega-heat waves across central United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowan, Tim; Hegerl, Gabi

2016-04-01

The unprecedented hot and dry conditions that plagued contiguous United States during the 1930s caused widespread devastation for many local communities and severely dented the emerging economy. The heat extremes experienced during the aptly named Dust Bowl decade were not isolated incidences, but part of a tendency towards warm summers over the central United States in the early 1930s, and peaked in the boreal summer 1936. Using high-quality daily maximum and minimum temperature observations from more than 880 Global Historical Climate Network stations across the United States and southern Canada, we assess the record breaking heat waves in the 1930s Dust Bowl decade. A comparison is made to more recent heat waves that have occurred during the latter half of the 20th century (i.e., in a warming world), both averaged over selected years and across decades. We further test the ability of coupled climate models to simulate mega-heat waves (i.e. most extreme events) across the United States in a pre-industrial climate without the impact of any long-term anthropogenic warming. Well-established heat wave metrics based on the temperature percentile threshold exceedances over three or more consecutive days are used to describe variations in the frequency, duration, amplitude and timing of the events. Casual factors such as drought severity/soil moisture deficits in the lead up to the heat waves (interannual), as well as the concurrent synoptic conditions (interdiurnal) and variability in Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures (decadal) are also investigated. Results suggest that while each heat wave summer in the 1930s exhibited quite unique characteristics in terms of their timing, duration, amplitude, and regional clustering, a common factor in the Dust Bowl decade was the high number of consecutive dry seasons, as measured by drought indicators such as the Palmer Drought Severity and Standardised Precipitation indices, that preceded the mega-heat waves. This

Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasim, Wajid; Amin, Asad; Fahad, Shah; Awais, Muhammad; Khan, Naeem; Mubeen, Muhammad; Wahid, Abdul; Turan, Veysel; Rehman, Muhammad Habibur; Ihsan, Muhammad Zahid; Ahmad, Shakeel; Hussain, Sajjad; Mian, Ishaq Ahmad; Khan, Bushra; Jamal, Yousaf

2018-06-01

Climate change has adverse effects at global, regional and local level. Heat wave events have serious contribution for global warming and natural hazards in Pakistan. Historical (1997-2015) heat wave were analyzed over different provinces (Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan) of Pakistan to identify the maximum temperature trend. Heat accumulation in Pakistan were simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) combined with 3 GHG (Green House Gases) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) by using SimCLIM model (statistical downscaling model for future trend projections). Heat accumulation was projected for year 2030, 2060, and 2090 for seasonal and annual analysis in Pakistan. Heat accumulation were projected to increase by the baseline year (1995) was represented in percentage change. Projection shows that Sindh and southern Punjab was mostly affected by heat accumulation. This study identified the rising trend of heat wave over the period (1997-2015) for Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan (provinces of Pakistan), which identified that most of the meteorological stations in Punjab and Sindh are highly prone to heat waves. According to model projection; future trend of annual heat accumulation, in 2030 was increased 17%, 26%, and 32% but for 2060 the trends were reported by 54%, 49%, and 86% for 2090 showed highest upto 62%, 75%, and 140% for RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5, respectively. While seasonal trends of heat accumulation were projected to maximum values for monsoon and followed by pre-monsoon and post monsoon. Heat accumulation in monsoon may affect the agricultural activities in the region under study.

Anisotropic ion heating and BBELF waves within the low-altitude ion upflow region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Y.; Knudsen, D. J.; Burchill, J. K.; James, H. G.; Miles, D. M.

2016-12-01

Previous studies have shown that low-energy (<10 eV) ion upflow energization processes involve multiple steps. At the initial stage, contributions from transverse-to-B ion heating by wave-particle interaction (WPI) are often underestimated. The wave-generation mechanisms, the specific wave modes leading to the ion heating, and the minimum altitude where WPI takes place remain unresolved. With this in mind, we statistically investigate the relation between anisotropic ion temperature enhancements and broadband extremely low frequency (BBELF) wave emissions within the ion upflow region using data from the Suprathermal Electron imager (SEI), the Fluxgate Magnetometer (MGF), and the Radio Receiver Instrument (RRI) onboard the e-POP satellite. Initial results demonstrate that perpendicular-to-B ion temperatures can reach up to 4.3 eV in approximately 1 km wide spatial region near 410 km altitude inside an active auroral surge. Intense small-scale field-aligned currents (FACs) as well as strong BBELF wave emissions, comprising electromagnetic waves below 80 Hz and electrostatic waves above, accompany these ion heating events. The minimum altitude of potential WPI reported here is lower than as previously suggested as 520 km by Frederick-Frost et al. 2007. We measure polarization and power spectral density for specific wave modes to explore the nature of ion heating within the BBELF waves. Acknowledgement: This research is supported by an Eyes High Doctoral Recruitment Scholarship at University of Calgary.

Large scale atmospheric drivers for heat waves in the Mediterranean Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasqui, Massimiliano; Di Giuseppe, Edmondo

2016-04-01

West African Heat Low (WAHL) is one of the prominent dynamical components of the West African Monsoon (WAM) system playing a key role in the summer atmospheric circulation over Mediterranean as well. It is characterized by a semi-permanent low pressure system generated and maintained by surface heating over the western part of Saharan desert in summer, and a divergent flux pattern above the atmospheric boundary level. In this study we analyse the formation and occurrence of heat waves in the Mediterranean Basin connected to the WAHL regimes in combination with the subtropical anticyclone regimes over North Atlantic basin (the "Azore High") . In this work, heat waves are defined when more than 6 consecutive days with a daily temperature above 90th percentile corresponding threshold are observed. We use 1971-2000 as reference period for thresholds calculation, based on two datasets: a) the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECAD/E-OBS) data; b) the Berkeley-Earth Project data; the analysis period covers March-September from 1951 to 2015 and 1951 to 2011 respectively. The WAHL index is calculated following the method proposed by Chauvin et al. (2010) and based on NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis dataset, while the Azore High pressure system regimes variability are computed as in Davis et al. (1997). We show that a statistical relationship between heat waves in Western and Central Mediterranean Basin and WAHL mechanism exists, being the latter a prominent causal factor. The relationships and causal connections between WAHL and Azores High atmospheric systems are also analysed to highlight potential implications for heat waves outlooks and early warning systems.

Heat Wave Vulnerability Mapping for India.

PubMed

Azhar, Gulrez; Saha, Shubhayu; Ganguly, Partha; Mavalankar, Dileep; Madrigano, Jaime

2017-03-30

Assessing geographic variability in heat wave vulnerability forms the basis for planning appropriate targeted adaptation strategies. Given several recent deadly heatwaves in India, heat is increasingly being recognized as a public health problem. However, to date there has not been a country-wide assessment of heat vulnerability in India. We evaluated demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental vulnerability factors and combined district level data from several sources including the most recent census, health reports, and satellite remote sensing data. We then applied principal component analysis (PCA) on 17 normalized variables for each of the 640 districts to create a composite Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) for India. Of the total 640 districts, our analysis identified 10 and 97 districts in the very high and high risk categories (> 2SD and 2-1SD HVI) respectively. Mapping showed that the districts with higher heat vulnerability are located in the central parts of the country. On examination, these are less urbanized and have low rates of literacy, access to water and sanitation, and presence of household amenities. Therefore, we concluded that creating and mapping a heat vulnerability index is a useful first step in protecting the public from the health burden of heat. Future work should incorporate heat exposure and health outcome data to validate the index, as well as examine sub-district levels of vulnerability.

MAVEN Observations of Solar Wind-Driven Magnetosonic Waves Heating the Martian Dayside Ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, C. M.; Andersson, L.; Ergun, R. E.; Harada, Y.; Hara, T.; Collinson, G.; Peterson, W. K.; Espley, J.; Halekas, J.; Mcfadden, J.; Mitchell, D. L.; Mazelle, C.; Benna, M.; Jakosky, B. M.

2018-05-01

We present Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN observations of large-amplitude magnetosonic waves propagating through the magnetosheath into the Martian ionosphere near the subsolar point on the dayside of the planet. The observed waves grow in amplitude as predicted for a wave propagating into a denser, charged medium, with wave amplitudes reaching 25 nT, equivalent to ˜40% of the background field strength. These waves drive significant density and temperature variations (˜20% to 100% in amplitude) in the suprathermal electrons and light ion species (H+) that correlate with compressional fronts of the magnetosonic waves. Density and temperature variations are also observed for the ionospheric electrons, and heavy ion species (O+ and O2+); however, these variations are not in phase with the magnetic field variations. Whistler waves are observed at compressional wave fronts and are thought to be produced by unstable, anistropic suprathermal electrons. The magnetosonic waves drive significant ion and electron heating down to just above the exobase region. Ion heating rates are estimated to be between 0.03 and 0.2 eVs-1 per ion, and heavier ions could thus gain escape energy if located in this heating region for ˜10-70 s. The measured ionospheric density profile indicates severe ionospheric erosion above the exobase region, and this is likely caused by substantial ion outflow that is driven by the observed heating. The effectiveness of these magnetosonic waves to energize the plasma close to the exobase could have important implications for the long-term climate evolution for unmagnetized bodies that are exposed to the solar wind.

Electron Heating and Acceleration from High Amplitude Driven Alfvén Waves in the LAPD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auerbach, David; Carter, Troy; Brugman, Brian

2006-10-01

High amplitude (δB/B ˜1 %) shear Alfvén waves are generated in the Large Plasma Device Upgrade (LAPD) at UCLA, and elevated electron temperatures and high energy electrons are observed using triple probes and Langmuir current traces. The Poynting flux of the observed waves is calculated, and wave power is compared to estimates of power input required to cause the observed heating. Theoretical calculations of power transfer from wave to plasma due to Landau damping and collisional heating are also presented and compared to experimental measurements. Heating by antenna near field effects is also being explored. The density and potential structures of these waves are explored using interferometer and triple probe measurements. Applications to Auroral generation and plasma heating are discussed.

The 1994 heat wave in South Korea: mortality impacts and recurrence probability in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kysely, J.; Kim, J.

2010-03-01

The study deals with mortality impacts of the July-August 1994 heat wave in the population of South Korea, including the megacity of Seoul (with the population exceeding 10 million for the city and 20 million for the metropolitan area), and estimates recurrence probability of the heat wave in a changing climate in terms of simulations of daily temperature series with a stochastic model. The 1994 heat wave is found exceptional with respect to both climatological characteristics and the mortality effects: significantly elevated mortality occurred in all population groups, including children up to 14 years of age, and the total death toll exceeded 3000 in the Korean population, which ranks the 1994 heat wave among the worst weather-related disasters in East Asia. The estimate represents net excess mortality as no mortality displacement effect appeared. A comparison with other documented natural disasters shows that the death toll of the heat wave was much higher than those of the most disastrous floodings and typhoons over Korean Peninsula in the 20th century. The mortality response was stronger in males than females although males are found to be less vulnerable during average heat waves. A climatological analysis reveals that the July-August 1994 heat wave might be considered an extremely rare event with a return period in the order of hundreds of years if stationarity of temperature time series is assumed. However, under a more realistic assumption of gradual warming related to climate change, recurrence probability of an event analogous to the 1994 heat wave sharply rises for near-future time horizons. If warming of 0.04°C/year is assumed over 2001-2060, the recurrence interval of a very long spell of days with temperature exceeding a high threshold (as in the 1994 heat wave) is estimated to decrease to around 40 (10) years in the 2021-2030 (2041-2050) decade. This emphasizes the need for setting up an efficient heat-watch-warning system in this area in order to

Ion-Scale Wave Properties and Enhanced Ion Heating across the Magnetopause during Kelvin-Helmholtz Instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nykyri, K.; Moore, T.; Dimmock, A. P.

2017-12-01

In the Earth's magnetosphere, the magnetotail plasma sheet ions are much hotter than in the shocked solar wind. On the dawn-sector, the cold-component ions are more abundant and hotter by 30-40 percent when compared to the dusk sector. Recent statistical studies of the flank magnetopause and magnetosheath have shown that the level of temperature asymmetry of the magnetosheath is unable to account for this, so additional physical mechanisms must be at play, either at the magnetopause or plasma sheet that contribute to this asymmetry. In this study, we perform a statistical analysis on the ion-scale wave properties in the three main plasma regimes common to flank magnetopause boundary crossings when the boundary is unstable to KHI: hot and tenuous magnetospheric, cold and dense magnetosheath and mixed [Hasegawa 2004 et al., 2004]. These statistics of ion-scale wave properties are compared to observations of fast magnetosonic wave modes that have recently been linked to Kelvin-Helmholtz vortex centered ion heating [Moore et al., 2016]. The statistical analysis shows that during KH events there is enhanced non-adiabatic heating calculated during (temporal) ion scale wave intervals when compared to non-KH events.

Increasing heat waves and warm spells in India, observed from a multiaspect framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panda, Dileep Kumar; AghaKouchak, Amir; Ambast, Sunil Kumar

2017-04-01

Recent heat waves have been a matter of serious concern for India because of potential impacts on agriculture, food security, and socioeconomic progress. This study examines the trends and variability in frequency, duration, and intensity of hot episodes during three time periods (1951-2013, 1981-2013 and 1998-2013) by defining heat waves based on the percentile of maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures. The study also explores heat waves and their relationships with hydroclimatic variables, such as rainfall, terrestrial water storage, Palmer drought severity index, and sea surface temperature. Results reveal that the number, frequency, and duration of daytime heat waves increased considerably during the post-1980 dry and hot phase over a large area. The densely populated and agriculturally dominated northern half of India stands out as a key region where the nighttime heat wave metrics reflected the most pronounced amplifications. Despite the recent warming hiatus in India and other parts of the world, we find that both daytime and nighttime extreme measures have undergone substantial changes during or in the year following a dry year since 2002, with the probability distribution functions manifesting a hotter-than-normal climate during 1998-2013. This study shows that a few months preceding the 2010 record-breaking heat wave in Russia, India experienced the largest hot episode in the country's history. Interestingly, both these mega events are comparable in terms of their evolution and amplification. These findings emphasize the importance of planning for strategies in the context of the rising cooccurrence of dry and hot events.

Changes in Pacific Northwest Heat Waves and Associated Synoptic/Mesoscale Drivers Under Anthropogenic Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brewer, M.; Mass, C.

2014-12-01

Though western Oregon and Washington summers are typically mild due to the influence of the nearby Pacific Ocean, this region occasionally experiences heat waves with temperatures in excess of 35ºC. These heat waves can have a substantial impact on this highly populated region, particularly since the population is unaccustomed to and generally unprepared for such conditions. A comprehensive evaluation is needed of past and future heat wave trends in frequency, intensity, and duration. Furthermore, it is important to understand the physical mechanisms of Northwest heat waves and how such mechanisms might change under anthropogenic global warming. Lower-tropospheric heat waves over the west coast of North America are the result of both synoptic and mesoscale factors, the latter requiring high-resolution models (roughly 12-15 km grid spacing) to simulate. Synoptic factors include large-scale warming due to horizontal advection and subsidence, as well as reductions in large-scale cloudiness. An important mesoscale factor is the occurrence of offshore (easterly) flow, resulting in an adiabatically warmed continental air mass spreading over the western lowlands rather than the more usual cool, marine air influence. To fully understand how heat waves will change under AGW, it is necessary to determine the combined impacts of both synoptic and mesoscale effects in a warming world. General Circulation Models (GCM) are generally are too coarse to simulate mesoscale effects realistically and thus may provide unreliable estimates of the frequency and magnitudes of West Coast heat waves. Therefore, to determine the regional implications of global warming, this work made use of long-term, high-resolution WRF simulations, at 36- and 12-km resolution, produced by dynamically downscaling GCM grids. This talk will examine the predicted trends in Pacific Northwest heat wave intensity, duration, and frequency during the 21st century (through 2100). The spatial distribution in the

A Protocol to Assess Insect Resistance to Heat Waves, Applied to Bumblebees (Bombus Latreille, 1802)

PubMed Central

Martinet, Baptiste; Lecocq, Thomas; Smet, Jérémy; Rasmont, Pierre

2015-01-01

Insect decline results from numerous interacting factors including climate change. One of the major phenomena related to climate change is the increase of the frequency of extreme events such as heat waves. Since heat waves are suspected to dramatically increase insect mortality, there is an urgent need to assess their potential impact. Here, we determined and compared the resistance to heat waves of insects under hyperthermic stress through their time before heat stupor (THS) when they are exposed to an extreme temperature (40°C). For this, we used a new experimental standardised device available in the field or in locations close to the field collecting sites. We applied this approach on different Arctic, Boreo-Alpine and Widespread bumblebee species in order to predict consequences of heat waves. Our results show a heat resistance gradient: the heat stress resistance of species with a centred arctic distribution is weaker than the heat resistance of the Boreo-Alpine species with a larger distribution which is itself lower than the heat stress resistance of the ubiquitous species. PMID:25738862

On the Causes of and Long Term Changes in Eurasian Heat Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan; Koster, Randal; Suarez, Max

2012-01-01

The MERRA reanalysis, other observations, and the GEOS-S model have been used to diagnose the causes of Eurasian heat waves including the recent extreme events that occurred in Europe during 2003 and in Russia during 2010. The results show that such extreme events are an amplification of natural patterns of atmospheric variability (in this case a particular large-scale atmospheric planetary wave) that develop over the Eurasian continent as a result of internal atmospheric forcing. The amplification occurs when the wave occasionally becomes locked in place for several weeks to months resulting in extreme heat and drying with the location depending on the phase of the upper atmospheric wave. Model experiments suggest that forcing from both the ocean (SST) and land playa role phase-locking the waves. An ensemble of very long GEOS-S model simulations (spanning the 20th century) forced with observed SST and greenhouse gases show that the model is capable of generating very similar heat waves, and that they have become more extreme in the last thirty years as a result of the overall warming of the Asian continent.

Effect of the scrape-off layer in AORSA full wave simulations of fast wave minority, mid/high harmonic, and helicon heating regimes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bertelli, N., E-mail: nbertell@pppl.gov; Gerhardt, S.; Hosea, J. C.

2015-12-10

Several experiments on different machines and in different fast wave (FW) heating regimes, such as hydrogen minority heating and high harmonic fast waves, have found strong interactions between radio-frequency (RF) waves and the scrape-off layer (SOL) region. This paper examines the propagation and the power loss in the SOL by using the full wave code AORSA, in which the edge plasma beyond the last closed flux surface (LCFS) is included in the solution domain and a collisional damping parameter is used as a proxy to represent the real, and most likely nonlinear, damping processes. 3D AORSA results for the Nationalmore » Spherical Torus eXperiment (NSTX), where a full antenna spectrum is reconstructed, are shown, confirming the same behavior found for a single toroidal mode results in Bertelli et al, Nucl. Fusion, 54 083004, 2014, namely, a strong transition to higher SOL power losses (driven by the RF field) when the FW cut-off is moved away from in front of the antenna by increasing the edge density. Additionally, full wave simulations have been extended to “conventional” tokamaks with higher aspect ratios, such as the DIII-D, Alcator C-Mod, and EAST devices. DIII-D results show similar behavior found in NSTX and NSTX-U, consistent with previous DIII-D experimental observations. In contrast, a different behavior has been found for Alcator C-Mod and EAST, which operate in the minority heating regime unlike NSTX/NSTX-U and DIII-D, which operate in the mid/high harmonic regime. A substantial discussion of some of the main aspects, such as (i) the pitch angle of the magnetic field; (ii) minority heating vs. mid/high harmonic regimes is presented showing the different behavior of the RF field in the SOL region for NSTX-U scenarios with different plasma current. Finally, the preliminary results of the impact of the SOL region on the evaluation of the helicon current drive efficiency in DIII-D is presented for the first time and briefly compared with the different

Effect of the scrape-off layer in AORSA full wave simulations of fast wave minority, mid/high harmonic, and helicon heating regimes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bertelli, Nicola; Jaeger, E. F.; Lau, Cornwall H

2015-01-01

Several experiments on different machines and in different fast wave (FW) heating regimes, such as hydrogen minority heating and high harmonic fast waves, have found strong interactions between radio-frequency (RF) waves and the scrape-off layer (SOL) region. This paper examines the propagation and the power loss in the SOL by using the full wave code AORSA, in which the edge plasma beyond the last closed flux surface (LCFS) is included in the solution domain and a collisional damping parameter is used as a proxy to represent the real, and most likely nonlinear, damping processes. 3D AORSA results for the Nationalmore » Spherical Torus eXperiment (NSTX), where a full antenna spectrum is reconstructed, are shown, confirming the same behavior found for a single toroidal mode results in Bertelli et al, Nucl. Fusion, 54 083004, 2014, namely, a strong transition to higher SOL power losses (driven by the RF field) when the FW cut-off is moved away from in front of the antenna by increasing the edge density. Additionally, full wave simulations have been extended to "conventional" tokamaks with higher aspect ratios, such as the DIII-D, Alcator C-Mod, and EAST devices. DIII-D results show similar behavior found in NSTX and NSTX-U, consistent with previous DIII-D experimental observations. In contrast, a different behavior has been found for Alcator C-Mod and EAST, which operate in the minority heating regime unlike NSTX/NSTX-U and DIII-D, which operate in the mid/high harmonic regime. A substantial discussion of some of the main aspects, such as (i) the pitch angle of the magnetic field; (ii) minority heating vs. mid/high harmonic regimes is presented showing the different behavior of the RF field in the SOL region for NSTX-U scenarios with different plasma current. Finally, the preliminary results of the impact of the SOL region on the evaluation of the helicon current drive efficiency in DIII-D is presented for the first time and briefly compared with the different

Monitoring and understanding changes in heat waves, cold waves, floods, and droughts in the United States: State of knowledge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, Thomas C.; Heim, Richard R.; Hirsch, Robert M.; Kaiser, Dale P.; Brooks, Harold; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Dole, Randall M.; Giovannettone, Jason P.; Guirguis, Kristen; Karl, Thomas R.; Katz, Richard W.; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Ryberg, Karen R.; K Wolter, BS Silva; Schubert, Siegfried; Silva, Viviane B. S.; Stewart, Brooke C.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Villarini, Gabriele; Vose, Russell S.; Walsh, John; Wehner, Michael; Wolock, David; Wolter, Klaus; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Wuebbles, Donald

2013-01-01

Weather and climate extremes have been varying and changing on many different time scales. In recent decades, heat waves have generally become more frequent across the United States, while cold waves have been decreasing. While this is in keeping with expectations in a warming climate, it turns out that decadal variations in the number of U.S. heat and cold waves do not correlate well with the observed U.S. warming during the last century. Annual peak flow data reveal that river flooding trends on the century scale do not show uniform changes across the country. While flood magnitudes in the Southwest have been decreasing, flood magnitudes in the Northeast and north-central United States have been increasing. Confounding the analysis of trends in river flooding is multiyear and even multidecadal variability likely caused by both large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and basin-scale “memory” in the form of soil moisture. Droughts also have long-term trends as well as multiyear and decadal variability. Instrumental data indicate that the Dust Bowl of the 1930s and the drought in the 1950s were the most significant twentieth-century droughts in the United States, while tree ring data indicate that the megadroughts over the twelfth century exceeded anything in the twentieth century in both spatial extent and duration. The state of knowledge of the factors that cause heat waves, cold waves, floods, and drought to change is fairly good with heat waves being the best understood.

Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis of Impacts of Future Heat Waves on Mortality in the Eastern United States

PubMed Central

Wu, Jianyong; Zhou, Ying; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S.; Johnson, Brent A.; Huang, Cheng; Kim, Young-Min

2013-01-01

Background: Climate change is anticipated to influence heat-related mortality in the future. However, estimates of excess mortality attributable to future heat waves are subject to large uncertainties and have not been projected under the latest greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Objectives: We estimated future heat wave mortality in the eastern United States (approximately 1,700 counties) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and investigated sources of uncertainty. Methods: Using dynamically downscaled hourly temperature projections for 2057–2059, we projected heat wave days that were defined using four heat wave metrics and estimated the excess mortality attributable to them. We apportioned the sources of uncertainty in excess mortality estimates using a variance-decomposition method. Results: Estimates suggest that excess mortality attributable to heat waves in the eastern United States would result in 200–7,807 deaths/year (mean 2,379 deaths/year) in 2057–2059. Average excess mortality projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were 1,403 and 3,556 deaths/year, respectively. Excess mortality would be relatively high in the southern states and eastern coastal areas (excluding Maine). The major sources of uncertainty were the relative risk estimates for mortality on heat wave versus non–heat wave days, the RCP scenarios, and the heat wave definitions. Conclusions: Mortality risks from future heat waves may be an order of magnitude higher than the mortality risks reported in 2002–2004, with thousands of heat wave–related deaths per year in the study area projected under the RCP8.5 scenario. Substantial spatial variability in county-level heat mortality estimates suggests that effective mitigation and adaptation measures should be developed based on spatially resolved data. Citation: Wu J, Zhou Y, Gao Y, Fu JS, Johnson BA, Huang C, Kim YM, Liu Y. 2014. Estimation and uncertainty analysis of impacts of future heat waves on mortality

Effects of Simulated Heat Waves with Strong Sudden Cooling Weather on ApoE Knockout Mice

PubMed Central

Zhang, Shuyu; Kuang, Zhengzhong; Zhang, Xiakun

2015-01-01

This study analyzes the mechanism of influence of heat waves with strong sudden cooling on cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in ApoE−/− mice. The process of heat waves with strong sudden cooling was simulated with a TEM1880 meteorological-environment simulation chamber according to the data obtained at 5 a.m. of 19 June 2006 to 11 p.m. of 22 June 2006. Forty-eight ApoE−/− mice were divided into six blocks based on their weight. Two mice from each block were randomly assigned to control, heat wave, temperature drop, and rewarming temperature groups. The experimental groups were transferred into the climate simulator chamber for exposure to the simulated heat wave process with strong sudden temperature drop. After 55, 59, and 75 h of exposure, the experimental groups were successively removed from the chamber to monitor physiological indicators. Blood samples were collected by decollation, and the hearts were harvested in all groups. The levels of heat stress factors (HSP60, SOD, TNF, sICAM-1, HIF-1α), cold stress factors (NE, EPI), vasoconstrictor factors (ANGII, ET-1, NO), and four items of blood lipid (TC, TG, HDL-C, and LDL-C) were measured in each ApoE−/− mouse. Results showed that the heat waves increased the levels of heat stress factors except SOD decreased, and decreased the levels of vasoconstrictor factors and blood lipid factors except TC increased. The strong sudden temperature drop in the heat wave process increased the levels of cold stress factors, vasoconstrictor factors and four blood lipid items (except the level of HDL-C which decreased) and decreased the levels of heat stress factors (except the level of SOD which increased). The analysis showed that heat waves could enhance atherosclerosis of ApoE−/− mice. The strong sudden temperature drop during the heat wave process increased the plasma concentrations of NE and ANGII, which indicates SNS activation, and resulted in increased blood pressure. NE and ANGII are vasoconstrictors

Effects of Simulated Heat Waves with Strong Sudden Cooling Weather on ApoE Knockout Mice.

PubMed

Zhang, Shuyu; Kuang, Zhengzhong; Zhang, Xiakun

2015-05-26

This study analyzes the mechanism of influence of heat waves with strong sudden cooling on cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in ApoE-/- mice. The process of heat waves with strong sudden cooling was simulated with a TEM1880 meteorological-environment simulation chamber according to the data obtained at 5 a.m. of 19 June 2006 to 11 p.m. of 22 June 2006. Forty-eight ApoE-/- mice were divided into six blocks based on their weight. Two mice from each block were randomly assigned to control, heat wave, temperature drop, and rewarming temperature groups. The experimental groups were transferred into the climate simulator chamber for exposure to the simulated heat wave process with strong sudden temperature drop. After 55, 59, and 75 h of exposure, the experimental groups were successively removed from the chamber to monitor physiological indicators. Blood samples were collected by decollation, and the hearts were harvested in all groups. The levels of heat stress factors (HSP60, SOD, TNF, sICAM-1, HIF-1α), cold stress factors (NE, EPI), vasoconstrictor factors (ANGII, ET-1, NO), and four items of blood lipid (TC, TG, HDL-C, and LDL-C) were measured in each ApoE-/- mouse. Results showed that the heat waves increased the levels of heat stress factors except SOD decreased, and decreased the levels of vasoconstrictor factors and blood lipid factors except TC increased. The strong sudden temperature drop in the heat wave process increased the levels of cold stress factors, vasoconstrictor factors and four blood lipid items (except the level of HDL-C which decreased) and decreased the levels of heat stress factors (except the level of SOD which increased). The analysis showed that heat waves could enhance atherosclerosis of ApoE-/- mice. The strong sudden temperature drop during the heat wave process increased the plasma concentrations of NE and ANGII, which indicates SNS activation, and resulted in increased blood pressure. NE and ANGII are vasoconstrictors involved in systemic

Test of a new heat-flow equation for dense-fluid shock waves.

PubMed

Holian, Brad Lee; Mareschal, Michel; Ravelo, Ramon

2010-09-21

Using a recently proposed equation for the heat-flux vector that goes beyond Fourier's Law of heat conduction, we model shockwave propagation in the dense Lennard-Jones fluid. Disequilibrium among the three components of temperature, namely, the difference between the kinetic temperature in the direction of a planar shock wave and those in the transverse directions, particularly in the region near the shock front, gives rise to a new transport (equilibration) mechanism not seen in usual one-dimensional heat-flow situations. The modification of the heat-flow equation was tested earlier for the case of strong shock waves in the ideal gas, which had been studied in the past and compared to Navier-Stokes-Fourier solutions. Now, the Lennard-Jones fluid, whose equation of state and transport properties have been determined from independent calculations, allows us to study the case where potential, as well as kinetic contributions are important. The new heat-flow treatment improves the agreement with nonequilibrium molecular-dynamics simulations under strong shock wave conditions, compared to Navier-Stokes.

How hard they hit? Perception, adaptation and public health implications of heat waves in urban and peri-urban Pakistan.

PubMed

Rauf, Sara; Bakhsh, Khuda; Abbas, Azhar; Hassan, Sarfraz; Ali, Asghar; Kächele, Harald

2017-04-01

Heat waves threaten human health given the fast changing climatic scenarios in the recent past. Adaptation to heat waves would take place when people perceive their impacts based on their knowledge. The present study examines perception level and its determinants resulting in adaptation to heat waves in Pakistan. The study used cross-sectional data from urban and peri-urban respondents of Faisalabad District. The study employs a health belief model to assess risk perception among the respondents. Logistic model is used to determine factors affecting level of knowledge, perception and adaptation to heat waves. Around 30% of peri-urban respondents have a low level of knowledge about the fatal impacts of heat waves. Risk perception of heat waves is very low among urban (57%) and peri-urban (66%) respondents. Households' knowledge on heat waves is significantly related to age, gender, education, wealth and access to health services. Determinants of perception include knowledge of heat waves, age and joint effect of marital status and knowledge while income level, family size, urban/peri-urban background, perceived barriers, perceived benefits and cues to action significantly affect adaptation to heat waves. To reduce deadly health impacts, mass awareness campaigns are needed to build perception and improve adaptation to heat waves.

Generation of whistler-wave heated discharges with planar resonant RF networks.

PubMed

Guittienne, Ph; Howling, A A; Hollenstein, Ch

2013-09-20

Magnetized plasma discharges generated by a planar resonant rf network are investigated. A regime transition is observed above a magnetic field threshold, associated with rf waves propagating in the plasma and which present the characteristics of whistler waves. These wave heated regimes can be considered as analogous to conventional helicon discharges, but in planar geometry.

Closed Field Coronal Heating Models Inspired by Wave Turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downs, C.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J.; Velli, M. M.

2013-12-01

To simulate the energy balance of coronal plasmas on macroscopic scales, we often require the specification of the coronal heating mechanism in some functional form. To go beyond empirical formulations and to build a more physically motivated heating function, we investigate the wave-turbulence dissipation (WTD) phenomenology for the heating of closed coronal loops. To do so, we employ an implementation of non-WKB equations designed to capture the large-scale propagation, reflection, and dissipation of wave turbulence along a loop. The parameter space of this model is explored by solving the coupled WTD and hydrodynamic equations in 1D for an idealized loop, and the relevance to a range of solar conditions is established by computing solutions for several hundred loops extracted from a realistic 3D coronal field. Due to the implicit dependence of the WTD heating model on loop geometry and plasma properties along the loop and at the footpoints, we find that this model can significantly reduce the number of free parameters when compared to traditional empirical heating models, and still robustly describe a broad range of quiet-sun and active region conditions. The importance of the self-reflection term in producing realistic heating scale heights and thermal non-equilibrium cycles is discussed, and preliminary 3D thermodynamic MHD simulations using this formulation are presented. Research supported by NASA and NSF.

Associations between risk perception, spontaneous adaptation behavior to heat waves and heatstroke in Guangdong province, China

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background In many parts of the world, including in China, extreme heat events or heat waves are likely to increase in intensity, frequency, and duration in light of climate change in the next decades. Risk perception and adaptation behaviors are two important components in reducing the health impacts of heat waves, but little is known about their relationships in China. This study aimed to examine the associations between risk perception to heat waves, adaptation behaviors, and heatstroke among the public in Guangdong province, China. Methods A total of 2,183 adult participants were selected using a four-stage sampling method in Guangdong province. From September to November of 2010 each subject was interviewed at home by a well-trained investigator using a structured questionnaire. The information collected included socio-demographic characteristics, risk perception and spontaneous adaptation behaviors during heat wave periods, and heatstroke experience in the last year. Chi-square tests and unconditional logistic regression models were employed to analyze the data. Results This study found that 14.8%, 65.3% and 19.9% of participants perceived heat waves as a low, moderate or high health risk, respectively. About 99.1% participants employed at least one spontaneous adaptation behavior, and 26.2%, 51.2% and 22.6% respondents employed <4, 4–7, and >7 adaptation behaviors during heat waves, respectively. Individuals with moderate (OR=2.93, 95% CI: 1.38-6.22) or high (OR=10.58, 95% CI: 4.74-23.63) risk perception experienced more heatstroke in the past year than others. Drinking more water and wearing light clothes in urban areas, while decreasing activity as well as wearing light clothes in rural areas were negatively associated with heatstroke. Individuals with high risk perception and employing <4 adaptation behaviors during heat waves had the highest risks of heatstroke (OR=47.46, 95% CI: 12.82-175.73). Conclusions There is a large room for improving health

Associations between risk perception, spontaneous adaptation behavior to heat waves and heatstroke in Guangdong province, China.

PubMed

Liu, Tao; Xu, Yan Jun; Zhang, Yong Hui; Yan, Qing Hua; Song, Xiu Ling; Xie, Hui Yan; Luo, Yuan; Rutherford, Shannon; Chu, Cordia; Lin, Hua Liang; Ma, Wen Jun

2013-10-02

In many parts of the world, including in China, extreme heat events or heat waves are likely to increase in intensity, frequency, and duration in light of climate change in the next decades. Risk perception and adaptation behaviors are two important components in reducing the health impacts of heat waves, but little is known about their relationships in China. This study aimed to examine the associations between risk perception to heat waves, adaptation behaviors, and heatstroke among the public in Guangdong province, China. A total of 2,183 adult participants were selected using a four-stage sampling method in Guangdong province. From September to November of 2010 each subject was interviewed at home by a well-trained investigator using a structured questionnaire. The information collected included socio-demographic characteristics, risk perception and spontaneous adaptation behaviors during heat wave periods, and heatstroke experience in the last year. Chi-square tests and unconditional logistic regression models were employed to analyze the data. This study found that 14.8%, 65.3% and 19.9% of participants perceived heat waves as a low, moderate or high health risk, respectively. About 99.1% participants employed at least one spontaneous adaptation behavior, and 26.2%, 51.2% and 22.6% respondents employed <4, 4-7, and >7 adaptation behaviors during heat waves, respectively. Individuals with moderate (OR=2.93, 95% CI: 1.38-6.22) or high (OR=10.58, 95% CI: 4.74-23.63) risk perception experienced more heatstroke in the past year than others. Drinking more water and wearing light clothes in urban areas, while decreasing activity as well as wearing light clothes in rural areas were negatively associated with heatstroke. Individuals with high risk perception and employing <4 adaptation behaviors during heat waves had the highest risks of heatstroke (OR=47.46, 95% CI: 12.82-175.73). There is a large room for improving health risk perception and adaptation capacity to

HeatWave: the next generation of thermography devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moghadam, Peyman; Vidas, Stephen

2014-05-01

Energy sustainability is a major challenge of the 21st century. To reduce environmental impact, changes are required not only on the supply side of the energy chain by introducing renewable energy sources, but also on the demand side by reducing energy usage and improving energy efficiency. Currently, 2D thermal imaging is used for energy auditing, which measures the thermal radiation from the surfaces of objects and represents it as a set of color-mapped images that can be analysed for the purpose of energy efficiency monitoring. A limitation of such a method for energy auditing is that it lacks information on the geometry and location of objects with reference to each other, particularly across separate images. Such a limitation prevents any quantitative analysis to be done, for example, detecting any energy performance changes before and after retrofitting. To address these limitations, we have developed a next generation thermography device called Heat Wave. Heat Wave is a hand-held 3D thermography device that consists of a thermal camera, a range sensor and color camera, and can be used to generate precise 3D model of objects with augmented temperature and visible information. As an operator holding the device smoothly waves it around the objects of interest, Heat Wave can continuously track its own pose in space and integrate new information from the range and thermal and color cameras into a single, and precise 3D multi-modal model. Information from multiple viewpoints can be incorporated together to improve the accuracy, reliability and robustness of the global model. The approach also makes it possible to reduce any systematic errors associated with the estimation of surface temperature from the thermal images.

Resilience to seasonal heat wave episodes in a Mediterranean pine forest.

PubMed

Tatarinov, Fedor; Rotenberg, Eyal; Maseyk, Kadmiel; Ogée, Jérôme; Klein, Tamir; Yakir, Dan

2016-04-01

Short-term, intense heat waves (hamsins) are common in the eastern Mediterranean region and provide an opportunity to study the resilience of forests to such events that are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity. The response of a 50-yr-old Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) forest to hamsin events lasting 1-7 d was studied using 10 yr of eddy covariance and sap flow measurements. The highest frequency of heat waves was c. four per month, coinciding with the peak productivity period (March-April). During these events, net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) and canopy conductance (gc ) decreased by c. 60%, but evapotranspiration (ET) showed little change. Fast recovery was also observed with fluxes reaching pre-stress values within a day following the event. NEE and gc showed a strong response to vapor pressure deficit that weakened as soil moisture decreased, while sap flow was primarily responding to changes in soil moisture. On an annual scale, heat waves reduced NEE and gross primary productivity by c. 15% and 4%, respectively. Forest resilience to short-term extreme events such as heat waves is probably a key to its survival and must be accounted for to better predict the increasing impact on productivity and survival of such events in future climates. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Reversible electron heating vs. wave-particle interactions in quasi-perpendicular shocks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veltri, P.; Mangeney, A.; Scudder, J. D.

1992-01-01

The energy necessary to explain the electron heating in quasi-perpendicular collisionless shocks can be derived either from the electron acceleration in the d.c. cross shock electric potential, or by the interactions between the electrons and the waves existing in the shock. A Monte Carlo simulation has been performed to study the electron distribution function evolution through the shock structure, with and without particle diffusion on waves. This simulation has allowed us to clarify the relative importance of the two possible energy sources; in particular it has been shown that the electron parallel temperature is determined by the d.c. electromagnetic field and not by any wave-particle-induced heating. Wave particle interactions are effective in smoothing out the large gradients in phase space produced by the 'reversible' motion of the electrons, thus producing a 'cooling' of the electrons.

Impacts of updated green vegetation fraction data on WRF simulations of the 2006 European heat wave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Refslund, J.; Dellwik, E.; Hahmann, A. N.; Barlage, M. J.; Boegh, E.

2012-12-01

Climate change studies suggest an increase in heat wave occurrences over Europe in the coming decades. Extreme events with excessive heat and associated drought will impact vegetation growth and health and lead to alterations in the partitioning of the surface energy. In this study, the atmospheric conditions during the heat wave year 2006 over Europe were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. To account for the drought effects on the vegetation, new high-resolution green vegetation fraction (GVF) data were developed for the domain using NDVI data from MODIS satellite observations. Many empirical relationships exist to convert NDVI to GVF and both a linear and a quadratic formulation were evaluated. The new GVF product has a spatial resolution of 1 km2 and a temporal resolution of 8 days. To minimize impacts from low-quality satellite retrievals in the NDVI series, as well as for comparison with the default GVF climatology in WRF, a new background climatology using 10 recent years of observations was also developed. The annual time series of the new GVF climatology was compared to the default WRF GVF climatology at 18 km2 grid resolution for the most common land use classes in the European domain. The new climatology generally has higher GVF levels throughout the year, in particular an extended autumnal growth season. Comparison of 2006 GVF with the climatology clearly indicates vegetation stresses related to heat and drought. The GVF product based on a quadratic NDVI relationship shows the best agreement with the magnitude and annual range of the default input data, in addition to including updated seasonality for various land use classes. The new GVF products were tested in WRF and found to work well for the spring of 2006 where the difference between the default and new GVF products was small. The WRF 2006 heat wave simulations were verified by comparison with daily gridded observations of mean, minimum and maximum temperature and

The 2010 Pakistan Flood and Russian Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Hydrometeorological Extremes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2012-01-01

In this paper, preliminary results are presented showing that the two record-setting extreme events during 2010 summer (i.e., the Russian heat wave-wildfires and Pakistan flood) were physically connected. It is found that the Russian heat wave was associated with the development of an extraordinarily strong and prolonged extratropical atmospheric blocking event in association with the excitation of a large-scale atmospheric Rossby wave train spanning western Russia, Kazakhstan, and the northwestern China-Tibetan Plateau region. The southward penetration of upper-level vorticity perturbations in the leading trough of the Rossby wave was instrumental in triggering anomalously heavy rain events over northern Pakistan and vicinity in mid- to late July. Also shown are evidences that the Russian heat wave was amplified by a positive feedback through changes in surface energy fluxes between the atmospheric blocking pattern and an underlying extensive land region with below-normal soil moisture. The Pakistan heavy rain events were amplified and sustained by strong anomalous southeasterly flow along the Himalayan foothills and abundant moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal in connection with the northward propagation of the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation.

The impact of temperature on mortality in a subtropical city: effects of cold, heat, and heat waves in São Paulo, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Son, Ji-Young; Gouveia, Nelson; Bravo, Mercedes A.; de Freitas, Clarice Umbelino; Bell, Michelle L.

2016-01-01

Understanding how weather impacts health is critical, especially under a changing climate; however, relatively few studies have investigated subtropical regions. We examined how mortality in São Paulo, Brazil, is affected by cold, heat, and heat waves over 14.5 years (1996-2010). We used over-dispersed generalized linear modeling to estimate heat- and cold-related mortality, and Bayesian hierarchical modeling to estimate overall effects and modification by heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, and timing in season). Stratified analyses were performed by cause of death and individual characteristics (sex, age, education, marital status, and place of death). Cold effects on mortality appeared higher than heat effects in this subtropical city with moderate climatic conditions. Heat was associated with respiratory mortality and cold with cardiovascular mortality. Risk of total mortality was 6.1 % (95 % confidence interval 4.7, 7.6 %) higher at the 99th percentile of temperature than the 90th percentile (heat effect) and 8.6 % (6.2, 11.1 %) higher at the 1st compared to the 10th percentile (cold effect). Risks were higher for females and those with no education for heat effect, and males for cold effect. Older persons, widows, and non-hospital deaths had higher mortality risks for heat and cold. Mortality during heat waves was higher than on non-heat wave days for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Our findings indicate that mortality in São Paulo is associated with both cold and heat and that some subpopulations are more vulnerable.

Generation of whistler waves by continuous HF heating of the upper ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vartanyan, A.; Milikh, G. M.; Eliasson, B. E.; Sharma, A.; Chang, C.; Parrot, M.; Papadopoulos, K.

2013-12-01

We report observations of VLF waves by the DEMETER satellite overflying the HAARP facility during ionospheric heating experiments. The detected VLF waves were in the range 8-17 kHz and coincided with times of continuous heating. The experiments indicate whistler generation due to conversion of artificial lower hybrid waves to whistlers on small scale field-aligned plasma density striations. The observations are compared with theoretical models, taking into account both linear and nonlinear processes. Implications of the mode conversion technique on VLF generation with subsequent injection into the radiation belts to trigger particle precipitation are discussed.

Development and Testing of a Refractory Millimeter-Wave Absorbent Heat Exchanger

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambot, Thomas; Myrabo, Leik; Murakami, David; Parkin, Kevin

2014-01-01

Central to the Millimeter-Wave Thermal Launch System (MTLS) is the millimeter-wave absorbent heat exchanger. We have developed metallic and ceramic variants, with the key challenge being the millimeter-wave absorbent coatings for each. The ceramic heat exchanger came to fruition first, demonstrating for the first time 1800 K peak surface temperatures under illumination by a 110 GHz Gaussian beam. Absorption efficiencies of up to 80 are calculated for mullite heat exchanger tubes and up to 50 are calculated for alumina tubes. These are compared with estimates based on stratified layer and finite element analyses. The problem of how to connect the 1800 K end of the ceramic tubes to a graphite outlet manifold and nozzle is solved by press fitting, or by threading the ends of the ceramic tubes and screwing them into place. The problem of how to connect the ceramic tubes to a metallic or nylon inlet pipe is solved by using soft compliant PTFE and PVC tubes that accommodate thermal deformations of the ceramic tubes during startup and operation. We show the resulting heat exchangers in static tests using argon and helium as propellants.

Early emergence of anthropogenically forced heat waves in the western United States and Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, Hosmay; West, Robert; Dong, Shenfu; Goni, Gustavo; Kirtman, Ben; Lee, Sang-Ki; Atlas, Robert

2018-05-01

Climate projections for the twenty-first century suggest an increase in the occurrence of heat waves. However, the time at which externally forced signals of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) emerge against background natural variability (time of emergence (ToE)) has been challenging to quantify, which makes future heat-wave projections uncertain. Here we combine observations and model simulations under present and future forcing to assess how internal variability and ACC modulate US heat waves. We show that ACC dominates heat-wave occurrence over the western United States and Great Lakes regions, with ToE that occurred as early as the 2020s and 2030s, respectively. In contrast, internal variability governs heat waves in the northern and southern Great Plains, where ToE occurs in the 2050s and 2070s; this later ToE is believed to be a result of a projected increase in circulation variability, namely the Great Plain low-level jet. Thus, greater mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed in the Great Lakes and western United States regions.

Ion-Scale Wave Properties and Enhanced Ion Heating Across the Low-Latitude Boundary Layer During Kelvin-Helmholtz Instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, T. W.; Nykyri, K.; Dimmock, A. P.

2017-11-01

In the Earth's magnetosphere, the magnetotail plasma sheet ions are much hotter than in the shocked solar wind. On the dawn sector, the cold-component ions are more abundant and hotter by 30-40% when compared to the dusk sector. Recent statistical studies of the flank magnetopause and magnetosheath have shown that the level of temperature asymmetry of the magnetosheath is unable to account for this, so additional physical mechanisms must be at play, either at the magnetopause or plasma sheet that contributes to this asymmetry. In this study, we perform a statistical analysis on the ion-scale wave properties in the three main plasma regimes common to flank magnetopause boundary crossings when the boundary is unstable to Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (KHI): hot and tenuous magnetospheric, cold and dense magnetosheath, and mixed (Hasegawa et al., 2004). These statistics of ion-scale wave properties are compared to observations of fast magnetosonic wave modes that have recently been linked to Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) vortex centered ion heating (Moore et al., 2016). The statistical analysis shows that during KH events there is enhanced nonadiabatic heating calculated during ion scale wave intervals when compared to non-KH events. This suggests that during KH events there is more free energy for ion-scale wave generation, which in turn can heat ions more effectively when compared to cases when KH waves are absent. This may contribute to the dawn favored temperature asymmetry of the plasma sheet; recent studies suggest KH waves favor the dawn flank during Parker-Spiral interplanetary magnetic field.

Microwave and Millimeter Wave Testing for the Inspection of the Space Shuttle Spray on Foam Insulations (SOFI) and the Acreage Heat Tiles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zoughi, R.; Kharkovsky, S.; Hepburn, F. L.

2005-01-01

The utility of microwave and millimeter wave nondestructive testing and evaluation (NDT&E) methods, for testing the Space Shuttle's external he1 tank spray on foam insulation (SOFI) and the acreage heat tiles has been investigated during the past two years. Millimeter wave NDE techniques are capable of producing internal images of SOFI. This paper presents the results of testing several diverse panels with embedded voids and debonds at millimeter wave frequencies. Additionally, the results of testing a set of heat tiles are also presented. Finally, the attributes of these methods as well as the advantageous features associated with these systems are also provided.

A low-frequency wave motion mechanism enables efficient energy transport in carbon nanotubes at high heat fluxes.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaoliang; Hu, Ming; Poulikakos, Dimos

2012-07-11

The great majority of investigations of thermal transport in carbon nanotubes (CNTs) in the open literature focus on low heat fluxes, that is, in the regime of validity of the Fourier heat conduction law. In this paper, by performing nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulations we investigated thermal transport in a single-walled CNT bridging two Si slabs under constant high heat flux. An anomalous wave-like kinetic energy profile was observed, and a previously unexplored, wave-dominated energy transport mechanism is identified for high heat fluxes in CNTs, originated from excited low frequency transverse acoustic waves. The transported energy, in terms of a one-dimensional low frequency mechanical wave, is quantified as a function of the total heat flux applied and is compared to the energy transported by traditional Fourier heat conduction. The results show that the low frequency wave actually overtakes traditional Fourier heat conduction and efficiently transports the energy at high heat flux. Our findings reveal an important new mechanism for high heat flux energy transport in low-dimensional nanostructures, such as one-dimensional (1-D) nanotubes and nanowires, which could be very relevant to high heat flux dissipation such as in micro/nanoelectronics applications.

Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis of Impacts of Future Heat Waves on Mortality in the Eastern United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Jianyong; Zhou, Ying; Gao, Yang

Background: It is anticipated that climate change will influence heat-related mortality in the future. However, the estimation of excess mortality attributable to future heat waves is subject to large uncertainties, which have not been examined under the latest greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Objectives: We estimated the future heat wave impact on mortality in the eastern United States (~ 1,700 counties) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and analyzed the sources of uncertainties. Methods Using dynamically downscaled hourly temperature projections in 2057-2059, we calculated heat wave days and episodes based on four heat wave metrics, and estimated the excess mortality attributablemore » to them. The sources of uncertainty in estimated excess mortality were apportioned using a variance-decomposition method. Results: In the eastern U.S., the excess mortality attributable to heat waves could range from 200-7,807 with the mean of 2,379 persons/year in 2057-2059. The projected average excess mortality in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios was 1,403 and 3,556 persons/year, respectively. Excess mortality would be relatively high in the southern and eastern coastal areas. The major sources of uncertainty in the estimates are relative risk of heat wave mortality, the RCP scenarios, and the heat wave definitions. Conclusions: The estimated mortality risks from future heat waves are likely an order of magnitude higher than its current level and lead to thousands of deaths each year under the RCP8.5 scenario. The substantial spatial variability in estimated county-level heat mortality suggests that effective mitigation and adaptation measures should be developed based on spatially resolved data.« less

Risk perception of heat waves and its spatial variation in Nanjing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Lei; Yang, Qianqi; Li, Jie; Chen, Jin; He, Ruoying; Zhang, Can; Chen, Kai; Dong, Steven Guanpeng; Liu, Yang

2018-05-01

The intensity, frequency, and duration of heat waves are expected to increase with climate change. In this study, we found a significant difference of public perceived effects of heat waves and trust in government among urban, suburban, and rural districts. Rural residents had a significant higher effect perception than urbanites and also showed stronger willingness to have medical insurance or regular physical examinations. Meanwhile, suburban residents had the lowest trust perception in government among these three districts, which may be due to suburban districts' unique social structure and complex social issues. Besides, we assessed the relationship between the factor effect and demographic variables. The results showed that urban respondents' effect perception was significantly related to heat wave experiences. Suburban respondents' effect perception was significantly related to age, income, and heat wave experiences. And rural respondents' effect perception was significantly related to income and chronic diseases. Based on our results, much more attention needs to be paid to rural districts. The government should strengthen infrastructure construction such as cooling centers, improve emergency response plans and mechanisms, and increase reserves of emergency supplies in rural districts. Also, targeted risk communication is of the equal importance to aid the policy-makers improving the relationship with the public and regaining the public's trust and support.

Risk perception of heat waves and its spatial variation in Nanjing, China.

PubMed

Huang, Lei; Yang, Qianqi; Li, Jie; Chen, Jin; He, Ruoying; Zhang, Can; Chen, Kai; Dong, Steven Guanpeng; Liu, Yang

2018-05-01

The intensity, frequency, and duration of heat waves are expected to increase with climate change. In this study, we found a significant difference of public perceived effects of heat waves and trust in government among urban, suburban, and rural districts. Rural residents had a significant higher effect perception than urbanites and also showed stronger willingness to have medical insurance or regular physical examinations. Meanwhile, suburban residents had the lowest trust perception in government among these three districts, which may be due to suburban districts' unique social structure and complex social issues. Besides, we assessed the relationship between the factor effect and demographic variables. The results showed that urban respondents' effect perception was significantly related to heat wave experiences. Suburban respondents' effect perception was significantly related to age, income, and heat wave experiences. And rural respondents' effect perception was significantly related to income and chronic diseases. Based on our results, much more attention needs to be paid to rural districts. The government should strengthen infrastructure construction such as cooling centers, improve emergency response plans and mechanisms, and increase reserves of emergency supplies in rural districts. Also, targeted risk communication is of the equal importance to aid the policy-makers improving the relationship with the public and regaining the public's trust and support.

Risk perception of heat waves and its spatial variation in Nanjing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Lei; Yang, Qianqi; Li, Jie; Chen, Jin; He, Ruoying; Zhang, Can; Chen, Kai; Dong, Steven Guanpeng; Liu, Yang

2017-12-01

The intensity, frequency, and duration of heat waves are expected to increase with climate change. In this study, we found a significant difference of public perceived effects of heat waves and trust in government among urban, suburban, and rural districts. Rural residents had a significant higher effect perception than urbanites and also showed stronger willingness to have medical insurance or regular physical examinations. Meanwhile, suburban residents had the lowest trust perception in government among these three districts, which may be due to suburban districts' unique social structure and complex social issues. Besides, we assessed the relationship between the factor effect and demographic variables. The results showed that urban respondents' effect perception was significantly related to heat wave experiences. Suburban respondents' effect perception was significantly related to age, income, and heat wave experiences. And rural respondents' effect perception was significantly related to income and chronic diseases. Based on our results, much more attention needs to be paid to rural districts. The government should strengthen infrastructure construction such as cooling centers, improve emergency response plans and mechanisms, and increase reserves of emergency supplies in rural districts. Also, targeted risk communication is of the equal importance to aid the policy-makers improving the relationship with the public and regaining the public's trust and support.

Heat waves in Senegal : detection, characterization and associated processes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnacoussa Sambou, Marie Jeanne; Janicot, Serge; Badiane, Daouda; Pohl, Benjamin; Dieng, Abdou L.; Gaye, Amadou T.

2017-04-01

Atmospheric configuration and synoptic evolution of patterns associated with Senegalese heat wave (HW) are examined on the period 1979-2014 using the Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) observational database and ERA-Interim reanalysis. Since there is no objective and uniform definition of HW events, threshold methods based on atmospheric variables as daily maximum (Tmax) / minimum (Tmin) temperatures and daily mean apparent temperature (AT) are used to define HW threshold detection. Each criterion is related to a specific category of HW events: Tmax (warm day events), Tmin (warm night events) and AT (combining temperature and moisture). These definitions are used in order to characterize as well as possible the warm events over the Senegalese regions (oceanic versus continental region). Statistics on time evolution and spatial distribution of warm events are carried out over the 2 seasons of maximum temperature (March-May and October-November). For each season, a composite of HW events, as well as the most extended event over Senegal (as a case study) are analyzed using usual atmospheric fields (sea level pressure, geopotential height, total column water content, wind components, 2m temperature). This study is part of the project ACASIS (https://acasis.locean-ipsl.upmc.fr/doku.php) on heat waves occurrences over the Sahel and their impact on health. Keywords: heat wave, Senegal, ACASIS.

Alfvén Wave Turbulence as a Coronal Heating Mechanism: Simultaneously Predicting the Heating Rate and the Wave-induced Emission Line Broadening

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oran, R.; Landi, E.; Holst, B. van der

We test the predictions of the Alfvén Wave Solar Model (AWSoM), a global wave-driven magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the solar atmosphere, against high-resolution spectra emitted by the quiescent off-disk solar corona. AWSoM incorporates Alfvén wave propagation and dissipation in both closed and open magnetic field lines; turbulent dissipation is the only heating mechanism. We examine whether this mechanism is consistent with observations of coronal EUV emission by combining model results with the CHIANTI atomic database to create synthetic line-of-sight spectra, where spectral line widths depend on thermal and wave-related ion motions. This is the first time wave-induced line broadening ismore » calculated from a global model with a realistic magnetic field. We used high-resolution SUMER observations above the solar west limb between 1.04 and 1.34 R {sub ⊙} at the equator, taken in 1996 November. We obtained an AWSoM steady-state solution for the corresponding period using a synoptic magnetogram. The 3D solution revealed a pseudo-streamer structure transversing the SUMER line of sight, which contributes significantly to the emission; the modeled electron temperature and density in the pseudo-streamer are consistent with those observed. The synthetic line widths and the total line fluxes are consistent with the observations for five different ions. Further, line widths that include the contribution from the wave-induced ion motions improve the correspondence with observed spectra for all ions. We conclude that the turbulent dissipation assumed in the AWSoM model is a viable candidate for explaining coronal heating, as it is consistent with several independent measured quantities.« less

Observation of Electron Bernstein Wave Heating in the RFP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seltzman, Andrew; Anderson, Jay; Goetz, John; Forest, Cary

2017-10-01

The first observation of RF heating in a reversed field pinch (RFP) using the electron Bernstein wave (EBW) has been demonstrated on MST. Efficient mode conversion of an outboard-launched X mode wave at 5.5 GHz leads to Doppler-shifted resonant absorption (ωrf = nωce-k||v||) for a broad range (n =1-7) of harmonics. The dynamics of EBW-heated electrons are measured using a spatial distribution of solid targets with diametrically opposed x-ray detectors. EBW heating produces a clear supra-thermal electron tail in MST. Radial deposition of the EBW is controlled with |B|and is measured using the HXR flux emitted from an insertable probe. In the thick-shelled MST RFP, the radial accessibility of EBW is limited to r/a >0.8 ( 10cm) by magnetic field error induced by the porthole necessary for the antenna. Experimental measurements show EBW propagation inward through a stochastic magnetic field. EBW-heated test electrons are used as a direct probe of edge (r/a >0.9) radial transport, showing a modest transition from `standard' to reduced-tearing RFP operation. Electron loss is too fast for collisional effects and implies a large non-collisional radial diffusivity. EBW heating has been demonstrated in reduced magnetic stochasticity plasmas with β = 15-20%. Work supported by USDOE.

Analysis of heat wave occurrences in the Carpathian basin using regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartha, E. B.; Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.

2012-04-01

Human health is very likely affected by regional consequences of global warming. One of the most severe impacts is probably associated to temperature-related climatological extremes, such as heat waves. In the coming decades hot conditions in most regions of the world are very likely to occur more frequently and more intensely than in the recent decades. In order to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies on local scale, it is essential to analyze the projected changes related to warming climatic conditions including heat waves. In 2004, a Heat Health Watch Warning System was developed in Hungary on the basis of a retrospective analysis of mortality and meteorological data to anticipate heat waves that may result in a large excess of mortality. In the frame of this recently introduced Health Watch System, three levels of heat wave warning are applied. They are associated to the daily mean temperature values, and defined as follows: - Warning level 1 (advisory for internal use) is issued when the daily mean temperature exceeds 25 °C. - Warning level 2 (heat wave watch) is issued when the daily mean temperature for at least 3 consecutive days exceeds 25 °C. - Warning level 3 (heat wave alert) is issued when the daily mean temperature for at least 3 consecutive days exceeds 27 °C. In the present study, frequency of the above climatic conditions are analyzed using regional climate model (RCM) experiments are analyzed for the recent past and the coming decades (1961-2100) for the Carpathian basin. At the Dept. of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University two different RCMs have been adapted: RegCM (with 10 km horizontal resolution, originally developed by Giorgi et al., currently, available from the International Centre for Theoretical Physics, ICTP) and PRECIS (with 25 km horizontal resolution, developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre). Their initial and lateral boundary conditions have been provided by global climate models ECHAM and HadCM3, respectively. For

Investigation of the radiation properties of magnetospheric ELF waves induced by modulated ionospheric heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Feng; Ni, Binbin; Zhao, Zhengyu; Zhao, Shufan; Zhao, Guangxin; Wang, Min

2017-05-01

Electromagnetic extremely low frequency (ELF) waves play an important role in modulating the Earth's radiation belt electron dynamics. High-frequency (HF) modulated heating of the ionosphere acts as a viable means to generate artificial ELF waves. The artificial ELF waves can reside in two different plasma regions in geo-space by propagating in the ionosphere and penetrating into the magnetosphere. As a consequence, the entire trajectory of ELF wave propagation should be considered to carefully analyze the wave radiation properties resulting from modulated ionospheric heating. We adopt a model of full wave solution to evaluate the Poynting vector of the ELF radiation field in the ionosphere, which can reflect the propagation characteristics of the radiated ELF waves along the background magnetic field and provide the initial condition of waves for ray tracing in the magnetosphere. The results indicate that the induced ELF wave energy forms a collimated beam and the center of the ELF radiation shifts obviously with respect to the ambient magnetic field with the radiation power inversely proportional to the wave frequency. The intensity of ELF wave radiation also shows a weak correlation with the size of the radiation source or its geographical location. Furthermore, the combination of ELF propagation in the ionosphere and magnetosphere is proposed on basis of the characteristics of the ELF radiation field from the upper ionospheric boundary and ray tracing simulations are implemented to reasonably calculate magnetospheric ray paths of ELF waves induced by modulated ionospheric heating.

A Simulated Heat Wave Has Diverse Effects on Immune Function and Oxidative Physiology in the Corn Snake (Pantherophis guttatus).

PubMed

Stahlschmidt, Z R; French, S S; Ahn, A; Webb, A; Butler, M W

Animals will continue to encounter increasingly warm environments, including more frequent and intense heat waves. Yet the physiological consequences of heat waves remain equivocal, potentially because of variation in adaptive plasticity (reversible acclimation) and/or aspects of experimental design. Thus, we measured a suite of physiological variables in the corn snake (Pantherophis guttatus) after exposure to field-parameterized, fluctuating temperature regimes (moderate temperature and heat wave treatments) to address two hypotheses: (1) a heat wave causes physiological stress, and (2) thermal performance of immune function exhibits adaptive plasticity in response to a heat wave. We found little support for our first hypothesis because a simulated heat wave had a negative effect on body mass, but it also reduced oxidative damage and did not affect peak performance of three immune metrics. Likewise, we found only partial support for our second hypothesis. After exposure to a simulated heat wave, P. guttatus exhibited greater performance breadth and reduced temperature specialization (the standardized difference between peak performance and performance breadth) for only one of three immune metrics and did so in a sex-dependent manner. Further, a simulated heat wave did not elicit greater performance of any immune metric at higher temperatures. Yet a heat wave likely reduced innate immune function in P. guttatus because each metric of innate immune performance in this species (as in most vertebrates) was lower at elevated temperatures. Together with previous research, our study indicates that a heat wave may have complex, modest, and even positive physiological effects in some taxa.

Extreme heat waves under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dosio, Alessandro; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Fischer, Erich M.; Wyser, Klaus

2018-05-01

Severe, extreme, and exceptional heat waves, such as those that occurred over the Balkans (2007), France (2003), or Russia (2010), are associated with increased mortality, human discomfort and reduced labour productivity. Based on the results of a very high-resolution global model, we show that, even at 1.5 °C warming, a significant increase in heat wave magnitude is expected over Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. Compared to a 1.5 °C world, under 2 °C warming the frequency of extreme heat waves would double over most of the globe. In a 1.5 °C world, 13.8% of the world population will be exposed to severe heat waves at least once every 5 years. This fraction becomes nearly three times larger (36.9%) under 2 °C warming, i.e. a difference of around 1.7 billion people. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will also result in around 420 million fewer people being frequently exposed to extreme heat waves, and ~65 million to exceptional heat waves. Nearly 700 million people (9.0% of world population) will be exposed to extreme heat waves at least once every 20 years in a 1.5 °C world, but more than 2 billion people (28.2%) in a 2 °C world. With current emission trends threatening even the 2 °C target, our study is helpful to identify regions where limiting the warming to 1.5 °C would have the strongest benefits in reducing population exposure to extreme heat.

Experimental Study of Shock Wave Interference Heating on a Cylindrical Leading Edge. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wieting, Allan R.

1987-01-01

An experimental study of shock wave interference heating on a cylindrical leading edge representative of the cowl of a rectangular hypersonic engine inlet at Mach numbers of 6.3, 6.5, and 8.0 is presented. Stream Reynolds numbers ranged from 0.5 x 106 to 4.9 x 106 per ft. and stream total temperature ranged from 2100 to 3400 R. The model consisted of a 3" dia. cylinder and a shock generation wedge articulated to angles of 10, 12.5, and 15 deg. A fundamental understanding was obtained of the fluid mechanics of shock wave interference induced flow impingement on a cylindrical leading edge and the attendant surface pressure and heat flux distributions. The first detailed heat transfer rate and pressure distributions for two dimensional shock wave interference on a cylinder was provided along with insight into the effects of specific heat variation with temperature on the phenomena. Results show that the flow around a body in hypersonic flow is altered significantly by the shock wave interference pattern that is created by an oblique shock wave from an external source intersecting the bow shock wave produced in front of the body.

Heat Waves, Droughts, and Preferences for Environmental Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Owen, Ann L.; Conover, Emily; Videras, Julio; Wu, Stephen

2012-01-01

Using data from a new household survey on environmental attitudes, behaviors, and policy preferences, we find that current weather conditions affect preferences for environmental regulation. Individuals who have recently experienced extreme weather (heat waves or droughts) are more likely to support laws to protect the environment. We find…

The Heating of Solar Coronal Loops by Alfvén Wave Turbulence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Ballegooijen, A. A.; Asgari-Targhi, M.; Voss, A.

2017-11-01

In this paper we further develop a model for the heating of coronal loops by Alfvén wave turbulence (AWT). The Alfvén waves are assumed to be launched from a collection of kilogauss flux tubes in the photosphere at the two ends of the loop. Using a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic model for an active-region loop, we investigate how the waves from neighboring flux tubes interact in the chromosphere and corona. For a particular combination of model parameters we find that AWT can produce enough heat to maintain a peak temperature of about 2.5 MK, somewhat lower than the temperatures of 3–4 MKmore » observed in the cores of active regions. The heating rates vary strongly in space and time, but the simulated heating events have durations less than 1 minute and are unlikely to reproduce the observed broad differential emission measure distributions of active regions. The simulated spectral line nonthermal widths are predicted to be about 27 km s{sup −1}, which is high compared to the observed values. Therefore, the present AWT model does not satisfy the observational constraints. An alternative “magnetic braiding” model is considered in which the coronal field lines are subject to slow random footpoint motions, but we find that such long-period motions produce much less heating than the shorter-period waves launched within the flux tubes. We discuss several possibilities for resolving the problem of producing sufficiently hot loops in active regions.« less

Non-equilibrium thermodynamics, heat transport and thermal waves in laminar and turbulent superfluid helium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mongiovì, Maria Stella; Jou, David; Sciacca, Michele

2018-01-01

This review paper puts together some results concerning non equilibrium thermodynamics and heat transport properties of superfluid He II. A one-fluid extended model of superfluid helium, which considers heat flux as an additional independent variable, is presented, its microscopic bases are analyzed, and compared with the well known two-fluid model. In laminar situations, the fundamental fields are density, velocity, absolute temperature, and heat flux. Such a theory is able to describe the thermomechanical phenomena, the propagation of two sounds in liquid helium, and of fourth sound in superleak. It also leads in a natural way to a two-fluid model on purely macroscopical grounds and allows a small amount of entropy associated with the superfluid component. Other important features of liquid He II arise in rotating situations and in superfluid turbulence, both characterized by the presence of quantized vortices (thin vortex lines whose circulation is restricted by a quantum condition). Such vortices have a deep influence on the transport properties of superfluid helium, as they increase very much its thermal resistance. Thus, heat flux influences the vortices which, in turn, modify the heat flux. The dynamics of vortex lines is the central topic in turbulent superfluid helium. The model is generalized to take into account the vortices in different cases of physical interest: rotating superfluids, counterflow superfluid turbulence, combined counterflow and rotation, and mass flow in addition to heat flow. To do this, the averaged vortex line density per unit volume L, is introduced and its dynamical equations are considered. Linear and non-linear evolution equations for L are written for homogeneous and inhomogeneous, isotropic and anisotropic situations. Several physical experiments are analyzed and the influence of vortices on the effective thermal conductivity of turbulent superfluid helium is found. Transitions from laminar to turbulent flows, from diffusive to

Pre-Monsoon Drought and Heat Waves in India

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-09-12

In June 2015, news organizations around the world reported on a deadly heat wave in India that killed more than 2,300 people. Prior to the arrival of the summer monsoon in India, weather conditions had been extremely hot and dry. Such conditions can lead to economic and agricultural disaster, human suffering and loss of life. NASA satellite sensors are allowing scientists to characterize pre-monsoon droughts and heat waves and postulate their scientific cause. This figure shows the longitude-time variations, averaged between 21 and 22 degrees North, across the middle of the India subcontinent from mid-April to mid-June. Longitude from the Arabian Sea to the Bay of Bengal is represented on the horizontal axis; while the vertical axis shows the timeframe. Rainfall is shown on the left, soil moisture is in the center, and surface air temperature is on the right. For both years (2012 and 2015), the summer monsoon begins in June, with sharp rises in rainfall and soil moisture, and a sharp drop in air temperature. The hottest and driest weeks occurred just before the summer monsoon onsets. Similar dry and hot periods, varying from one to a few weeks, were observed in 2013 and 2014. Soil moisture as an indication of drought as measured by NASA's Aquarius mission was first available in 2012. Rainfall data are from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and surface air temperature is from NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. The TRMM and Aquarius missions ended in April 2015, before the drought and heat waves. Their data were replaced by those presently available from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission (SMAP) and Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) to show the drought and heatwave in 2015. Scientists from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, have shown that during the summer monsoon season, moisture is transported into the India Subcontinent from the Arabian Sea and out to the Bay of Bengal

An approach to quantify the heat wave strength and price a heat derivative for risk hedging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Samuel S. P.; Kramps, Benedikt; Sun, Shirley X.; Bailey, Barbara

2012-01-01

Mitigating the heat stress via a derivative policy is a vital financial option for agricultural producers and other business sectors to strategically adapt to the climate change scenario. This study has provided an approach to identifying heat stress events and pricing the heat stress weather derivative due to persistent days of high surface air temperature (SAT). Cooling degree days (CDD) are used as the weather index for trade. In this study, a call-option model was used as an example for calculating the price of the index. Two heat stress indices were developed to describe the severity and physical impact of heat waves. The daily Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-D) SAT data from 1901 to 2007 from the southern California, USA, were used. A major California heat wave that occurred 20-25 October 1965 was studied. The derivative price was calculated based on the call-option model for both long-term station data and the interpolated grid point data at a regular 0.1°×0.1° latitude-longitude grid. The resulting comparison indicates that (a) the interpolated data can be used as reliable proxy to price the CDD and (b) a normal distribution model cannot always be used to reliably calculate the CDD price. In conclusion, the data, models, and procedures described in this study have potential application in hedging agricultural and other risks.

Mortality related to air pollution with the moscow heat wave and wildfire of 2010.

PubMed

Shaposhnikov, Dmitry; Revich, Boris; Bellander, Tom; Bedada, Getahun Bero; Bottai, Matteo; Kharkova, Tatyana; Kvasha, Ekaterina; Lezina, Elena; Lind, Tomas; Semutnikova, Eugenia; Pershagen, Göran

2014-05-01

Prolonged high temperatures and air pollution from wildfires often occur together, and the two may interact in their effects on mortality. However, there are few data on such possible interactions. We analyzed day-to-day variations in the number of deaths in Moscow, Russia, in relation to air pollution levels and temperature during the disastrous heat wave and wildfire of 2010. Corresponding data for the period 2006-2009 were used for comparison. Daily average levels of PM10 and ozone were obtained from several continuous measurement stations. The daily number of nonaccidental deaths from specific causes was extracted from official records. Analyses of interactions considered the main effect of temperature as well as the added effect of prolonged high temperatures and the interaction with PM10. The major heat wave lasted for 44 days, with 24-hour average temperatures ranging from 24°C to 31°C and PM10 levels exceeding 300 μg/m on several days. There were close to 11,000 excess deaths from nonaccidental causes during this period, mainly among those older than 65 years. Increased risks also occurred in younger age groups. The most pronounced effects were for deaths from cardiovascular, respiratory, genitourinary, and nervous system diseases. Continuously increasing risks following prolonged high temperatures were apparent during the first 2 weeks of the heat wave. Interactions between high temperatures and air pollution from wildfires in excess of an additive effect contributed to more than 2000 deaths. Interactions between high temperatures and wildfire air pollution should be considered in risk assessments regarding health consequences of climate change.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of heat waves over China in regional climate simulations within the CORDEX-EA project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Pinya; Tang, Jianping; Sun, Xuguang; Liu, Jianyong; Juan, Fang

2018-03-01

Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal features of heat waves in 20-year regional climate simulations over East Asia, and investigates the capability of WRF to reproduce observational heat waves in China. Within the framework of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), the WRF model is driven by the ERA-Interim (ERAIN) reanalysis, and five continuous simulations are conducted from 1989 to 2008. Of these, four runs apply the interior spectral nudging (SN) technique with different wavenumbers, nudging variables and nudging coefficients. Model validations show that WRF can reasonably reproduce the spatiotemporal features of heat waves in China. Compared with the experiment without SN, the application of SN is effectie on improving the skill of the model in simulating both the spatial distributions and temporal variations of heat waves of different intensities. The WRF model shows advantages in reproducing the synoptic circulations with SN and therefore yields better representations for heat wave events. Besides, the SN method is able to preserve the variability of large-scale circulations quite well, which in turn adjusts the extreme temperature variability towards the observation. Among the four SN experiments, those with stronger nudging coefficients perform better in modulating both the spatial and temporal features of heat waves. In contrast, smaller nudging coefficients weaken the effects of SN on improving WRF's performances.

Preferential Heating of Oxygen 5+ Ions by Finite-Amplitude Oblique Alfven Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maneva, Yana G.; Vinas, Adolfo; Araneda, Jamie; Poedts, Stefaan

2016-01-01

Minor ions in the fast solar wind are known to have higher temperatures and to flow faster than protons in the interplanetary space. In this study we combine previous research on parametric instability theory and 2.5D hybrid simulations to study the onset of preferential heating of Oxygen 5+ ions by large-scale finite-amplitude Alfven waves in the collisionless fast solar wind. We consider initially non-drifting isotropic multi-species plasma, consisting of isothermal massless fluid electrons, kinetic protons and kinetic Oxygen 5+ ions. The external energy source for the plasma heating and energization are oblique monochromatic Alfven-cyclotron waves. The waves have been created by rotating the direction of initial parallel pump, which is a solution of the multi-fluid plasma dispersion relation. We consider propagation angles theta less than or equal to 30 deg. The obliquely propagating Alfven pump waves lead to strong diffusion in the ion phase space, resulting in highly anisotropic heavy ion velocity distribution functions and proton beams. We discuss the application of the model to the problems of preferential heating of minor ions in the solar corona and the fast solar wind.

Effects of temperature and heat waves on emergency department visits and emergency ambulance dispatches in Pudong New Area, China: a time series analysis.

PubMed

Sun, Xiaoming; Sun, Qiao; Yang, Minjuan; Zhou, Xianfeng; Li, Xiaopan; Yu, Aiqing; Geng, Fuhai; Guo, Yuming

2014-10-02

In July 2013, an extended heat episode with extreme high temperature covered Pudong New Area, the largest district in Shanghai. The current study estimates the impacts of temperature and heat waves on emergency department visits (EDV) and emergency ambulance dispatches (EAD) using time-series approaches in Pudong, from 2011 to 2013. An over-dispersed Poisson generalized additive model was used to examine the association between temperature and EDV and EAD. Heat wave effects with different heat wave definitions considering both the intensity and durations were also estimated. Immediate effects of temperature on EDV and EAD were detected, after controlling for trends of time and day of week. The exposure-response relationships showed J-shaped curves with higher threshold temperature of EDV than that of EAD visually. When estimating risk changes on heat days compared with non-heat days using different percentiles of daily mean temperature in definition, EAD showed significant increases while non-significant or even negative associations were found for EDV. Heat wave with intensity above the 90th percentile had 2.62% (95% CI: 1.78%, 3.46%) and 0.95% (95% CI: 0.22%, 1.69%) increases in EDV for a duration of at least 2 days and 3 days respectively. The relative increase of EAD were 4.85% (95% CI: 1.42%, 8.39%) and 3.94% (95% CI: 0.88%, 7.10%). Varied effects of temperature and heat waves on emergency department visits and emergency ambulance dispatches were investigated. This wider view of the health effect of temperature indicated that interventions for both public health education and health services management should be considered in the study region.

Can heat waves change the trophic role of the world's most invasive crayfish? Diet shifts in Procambarus clarkii.

PubMed

Carreira, Bruno M; Segurado, Pedro; Laurila, Anssi; Rebelo, Rui

2017-01-01

In the Mediterranean basin, the globally increasing temperatures are expected to be accompanied by longer heat waves. Commonly assumed to benefit cold-limited invasive alien species, these climatic changes may also change their feeding preferences, especially in the case of omnivorous ectotherms. We investigated heat wave effects on diet choice, growth and energy reserves in the invasive red swamp crayfish, Procambarus clarkii. In laboratory experiments, we fed juvenile and adult crayfish on animal, plant or mixed diets and exposed them to a short or a long heat wave. We then measured crayfish survival, growth, body reserves and Fulton's condition index. Diet choices of the crayfish maintained on the mixed diet were estimated using stable isotopes (13C and 15N). The results suggest a decreased efficiency of carnivorous diets at higher temperatures, as juveniles fed on the animal diet were unable to maintain high growth rates in the long heat wave; and a decreased efficiency of herbivorous diets at lower temperatures, as juveniles in the cold accumulated less body reserves when fed on the plant diet. Heat wave treatments increased the assimilation of plant material, especially in juveniles, allowing them to sustain high growth rates in the long heat wave. Contrary to our expectations, crayfish performance decreased in the long heat wave, suggesting that Mediterranean summer heat waves may have negative effects on P. clarkii and that they are unlikely to boost its populations in this region. Although uncertain, it is possible that the greater assimilation of the plant diet resulted from changes in crayfish feeding preferences, raising the hypotheses that i) heat waves may change the predominant impacts of this keystone species and ii) that by altering species' trophic niches, climate change may alter the main impacts of invasive alien species.

Awareness of and Attitudes towards Heat Waves within the Context of Climate Change among a Cohort of Residents in Adelaide, Australia

PubMed Central

Akompab, Derick A.; Bi, Peng; Williams, Susan; Grant, Janet; Walker, Iain A.; Augoustinos, Martha

2012-01-01

Heat waves are a public health concern in Australia and unprecedented heat waves have been recorded in Adelaide over recent years. The aim of this study was to examine the perception and attitudes towards heat waves in the context of climate change among a group of residents in Adelaide, an Australian city with a temperate climate. A cross-sectional study was conducted in the summer of 2012 among a sample of 267 residents. The results of the survey found that television (89.9%), radio (71.2%), newspapers (45.3%) were the main sources from which respondents received information about heat waves. The majority of the respondents (73.0%) followed news about heat waves very or somewhat closely. About 26.6% of the respondents were extremely or very concerned about the effects of heat waves on them personally. The main issues that were of personal concern for respondents during a heat wave were their personal comfort (60.7%), their garden (48.7%), and sleeping well (47.6%). Overall, respondents were more concerned about the impacts of heat waves to the society than on themselves. There was a significant association between gender (χ² = 21.2, df = 3, p = 0.000), gross annual household income (p = 0.03) and concern for the societal effects of heat waves. Less than half (43.2%) of the respondents believed that heat waves will extremely or very likely increase in Adelaide according to climate projections. Nearly half (49.3%) believed that the effects of heat waves were already being felt in Adelaide. These findings may inform the reframing and communication strategies for heat waves in Adelaide in the context of climate change. PMID:23343978

Awareness of and attitudes towards heat waves within the context of climate change among a cohort of residents in Adelaide, Australia.

PubMed

Akompab, Derick A; Bi, Peng; Williams, Susan; Grant, Janet; Walker, Iain A; Augoustinos, Martha

2012-12-20

Heat waves are a public health concern in Australia and unprecedented heat waves have been recorded in Adelaide over recent years. The aim of this study was to examine the perception and attitudes towards heat waves in the context of climate change among a group of residents in Adelaide, an Australian city with a temperate climate. A cross-sectional study was conducted in the summer of 2012 among a sample of 267 residents. The results of the survey found that television (89.9%), radio (71.2%), newspapers (45.3%) were the main sources from which respondents received information about heat waves. The majority of the respondents (73.0%) followed news about heat waves very or somewhat closely. About 26.6% of the respondents were extremely or very concerned about the effects of heat waves on them personally. The main issues that were of personal concern for respondents during a heat wave were their personal comfort (60.7%), their garden (48.7%), and sleeping well (47.6%). Overall, respondents were more concerned about the impacts of heat waves to the society than on themselves. There was a significant association between gender (χ² = 21.2, df = 3, p = 0.000), gross annual household income (p = 0.03) and concern for the societal effects of heat waves. Less than half (43.2%) of the respondents believed that heat waves will extremely or very likely increase in Adelaide according to climate projections. Nearly half (49.3%) believed that the effects of heat waves were already being felt in Adelaide. These findings may inform the reframing and communication strategies for heat waves in Adelaide in the context of climate change.

Observation of Electron Bernstein Wave Heating in the MST Reversed Field Pinch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seltzman, Andrew; Anderson, Jay; Dubois, Ami; Almagri, Abdulgader; Nonn, Paul; McCollam, Karsten; Chapman, Brett; Goetz, John; Forest, Cary

2016-10-01

We report the first observation of electron Bernstein wave heating in the MST RFP. Similar to a high density stellarator, the RFP is inaccessible to electromagnetic ECRH. The plasma current and |B|operating range of MST allows a 5.5 GHz RF source (100kW, 4ms pulse) to heat on the fundamental and up to 4th harmonic EC resonances. With an x-ray diagnostic most sensitive to edge electrons located +12 degrees toroidally from the antenna, the measured emission is a strong function of predicted heating inside versus outside the Bt =0 reversal layer of the RFP. Measured during a scan of plasma current, distinct edges in a plot of emissivity versus predicted deposition layer align with the deposition layers crossing of this reversal layer and confirm EBW heating on the fundamental through 4th EC harmonic. Additional confirmation of the absorption location has been demonstrated by using auxiliary poloidal current drive to reduce electron diffusion rates and sweep the location of the Bt =0 surface across a static RF absorption location in RFP discharges. In these discharges EBW enhancement of the 15-40keV x-ray energies has been observed. Work supported by USDOE.

Effects of modification of the polar ionosphere with high-power short-wave extraordinary-mode HF waves produced by the spear heating facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borisova, T. D.; Blagoveshchenskaya, N. F.; S. Kalishin, A.; Oksavik, K.; Baddelley, L.; K. Yeoman, T.

2012-06-01

We present the results of modifying the F2 layer of the polar ionosphere experimentally with highpower HF extraordinary-mode waves. The experiments were performed in October 2010 using the short-wave SPEAR heating facility (Longyearbyen, Spitsbergen). To diagnose the effects of high-power HF waves by the aspect-scattering method in a network of diagnostic paths, we used the short-wave Doppler radar CUTLASS (Hankasalmi, Finland) and the incoherent scatter radar ESR (Longyearbyen, Spitsbergen). Excitation of small-scale artificial ionospheric irregularities was revealed, which were responsible for the aspect and backward scattering of the diagnostic signals. The measurements performed by the ESR incoherent scatter radar simultaneously with the heating demonstrated changes in the parameters of the ionospheric plasma, specifically, an increase in the electron density by 10-25 % and an increase in the electron temperature by 10-30 % at the altitudes of the F2 layer, as well as formation of sporadic ionization at altitudes of 140-180 km (below the F2 layer maximum). To explain the effects of ionosphere heating with HF extraordinary-mode waves, we propose a hypothesis of transformation of extraordinary electromagnetic waves to ordinary in the anisotropic, smoothly nonuniform ionosphere.

Improved heat transfer modeling of the eye for electromagnetic wave exposures.

PubMed

Hirata, Akimasa

2007-05-01

This study proposed an improved heat transfer model of the eye for exposure to electromagnetic (EM) waves. Particular attention was paid to the difference from the simplified heat transfer model commonly used in this field. From our computational results, the temperature elevation in the eye calculated with the simplified heat transfer model was largely influenced by the EM absorption outside the eyeball, but not when we used our improved model.

PROTOPLANETARY DISK HEATING AND EVOLUTION DRIVEN BY SPIRAL DENSITY WAVES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rafikov, Roman R., E-mail: rrr@ias.edu

2016-11-10

Scattered light imaging of protoplanetary disks often reveals prominent spiral arms, likely excited by massive planets or stellar companions. Assuming that these arms are density waves, evolving into spiral shocks, we assess their effect on the thermodynamics, accretion, and global evolution of the disk. We derive analytical expressions for the direct (irreversible) heating, angular momentum transport, and mass accretion rate induced by disk shocks of arbitrary amplitude. These processes are very sensitive to the shock strength. We show that waves of moderate strength (density jump at the shock ΔΣ/Σ ∼ 1) result in negligible disk heating (contributing at the ∼1%more » level to the energy budget) in passive, irradiated protoplanetary disks on ∼100 au scales, but become important within several au. However, shock heating is a significant (or even dominant) energy source in disks of cataclysmic variables, stellar X-ray binaries, and supermassive black hole binaries, heated mainly by viscous dissipation. Mass accretion induced by the spiral shocks is comparable to (or exceeds) the mass inflow due to viscous stresses. Protoplanetary disks featuring prominent global spirals must be evolving rapidly, in ≲0.5 Myr at ∼100 au. A direct upper limit on the evolution timescale can be established by measuring the gravitational torque due to the spiral arms from the imaging data. We find that, regardless of their origin, global spiral waves must be important agents of the protoplanetary disk evolution. They may serve as an effective mechanism of disk dispersal and could be related to the phenomenon of transitional disks.« less

Future changes of temperature and heat waves in Ontario, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhong; Huang, Guohe; Huang, Wendy; Lin, Qianguo; Liao, Renfei; Fan, Yurui

2018-05-01

Apparent changes in the temperature patterns in recent years brought many challenges to the province of Ontario, Canada. As the need for adapting to climate change challenges increases, the development of reliable climate projections becomes a crucial task. In this study, a regional climate modeling system, Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS), is used to simulate the temperature patterns in Ontario. Three PRECIS runs with a resolution of 25 km × 25 km are carried out to simulate the present (1961-1990) temperature variations. There is a good match between the simulated and observed data, which validates the performance of PRECIS in reproducing temperature changes in Ontario. Future changes of daily maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures during the period 2071-2100 are then projected under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios using PRECIS. Spatial variations of annual mean temperature, mean diurnal range, and temperature seasonality are generated. Furthermore, heat waves defined based on the exceedance of local climatology and their temporal and spatial characteristics are analyzed. The results indicate that the highest temperature and the most intensive heat waves are most likely to occur at the Toronto-Windsor corridor in Southern Ontario. The Northern Ontario, in spite of the relatively low projected temperature, would be under the risk of long-lasting heat waves, and thus needs effective measures to enhance its climate resilience in the future. This study can assist the decision makers in better understanding the future temperature changes in Ontario and provide decision support for mitigating heat-related loss.

Thermal bioclimate in Strasbourg - the 2003 heat wave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matzarakis, Andreas; de Rocco, Manuela; Najjar, Georges

2009-10-01

This case study highlights the implications of the 2003 heat wave for the city of Strasbourg, France. The urban centers of France and other European countries were particularly affected by the heat wave. In some urban areas, the mortality rate was 60% above the expected value (Institute de Veille Sanitaire, 2003). The 2003 heat wave demonstrated once again that populations in urban centers are much more affected by extreme meteorological events than people living in rural areas. The aim of this analysis is to explore differences in thermal comfort conditions of (a) the city center of Strasbourg, and (b) its hinterland. The differences in thermal conditions existing between rural and urban areas are quantified by using a bio-climatological index termed physiologically equivalent temperature (PET). This index is based on the human energy balance and builds a relevant index for the quantification of the thermal environment of humans. We calculate the PET for the years 2003 and 2004 to highlight the temporal changes in the severity of climate extremes. The spatial scope of this study is improved compared to previous works in the field through the inclusion of PET calculations for five different sites on a central place in Strasbourg (Place Kléber). The calculations are characterized by different sky view factors and are compared to the reference site, which is located in a rural area. In the rural hinterland (Entzheim), the analysis of PET indicates a strong cold thermal stress during the winter months but no significant stress in summer. In 2003, summer temperatures were sensed as warmer compared to other years, but did not reach the extreme temperatures that may cause severe heat stress. For both the rural and the urban study sites PET was higher in the summer of 2003 than in 2004, which reflects the inferior thermal conditions in the urban area during the heat wave in 2003. For the entire study period, urban and rural day-time PET reached similar maximal values

The effect of heat waves, elevated [CO2 ] and low soil water availability on northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) seedlings.

PubMed

Bauweraerts, Ingvar; Wertin, Timothy M; Ameye, Maarten; McGuire, Mary Anne; Teskey, Robert O; Steppe, Kathy

2013-02-01

The frequency and intensity of heat waves are predicted to increase. This study investigates whether heat waves would have the same impact as a constant increase in temperature with the same heat sum, and whether there would be any interactive effects of elevated [CO2 ] and soil moisture content. We grew Quercus rubra seedlings in treatment chambers maintained at either ambient or elevated [CO2 ] (380 or 700 μmol CO2 mol(-1) ) with temperature treatments of ambient, ambient +3 °C, moderate heat wave (+6 °C every other week) or severe heat wave (+12 °C every fourth week) temperatures. Averaged over a 4-week period, and the entire growing season, the three elevated temperature treatments had the same average temperature and heat sum. Half the seedlings were watered to a soil water content near field capacity, half to about 50% of this value. Foliar gas exchange measurements were performed morning and afternoon (9:00 and 15:00 hours) before, during and after an applied heat wave in August 2010. Biomass accumulation was measured after five heat wave cycles. Under ambient [CO2 ] and well-watered conditions, biomass accumulation was highest in the +3 °C treatment, intermediate in the +6 °C heat wave and lowest in the +12 °C heat wave treatment. This response was mitigated by elevated [CO2 ]. Low soil moisture significantly decreased net photosynthesis (Anet ) and biomass in all [CO2 ] and temperature treatments. The +12 °C heat wave reduced afternoon Anet by 23% in ambient [CO2 ]. Although this reduction was relatively greater under elevated [CO2 ], Anet values during this heat wave were still 34% higher than under ambient [CO2 ]. We concluded that heat waves affected biomass growth differently than the same amount of heat applied uniformly over the growing season, and that the plant response to heat waves also depends on [CO2 ] and soil moisture conditions. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Ion acceleration and heating by kinetic Alfvén waves associated with magnetic reconnection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liang, Ji; Lin, Yu; Johnson, Jay R.

In a previous study on the generation and signatures of kinetic Alfv en waves (KAWs) associated with magnetic reconnection in a current sheet revealed that KAWs are a common feature during reconnection [Liang et al. J. Geophys. Res.: Space Phys. 121, 6526 (2016)]. In this paper, ion acceleration and heating by the KAWs generated during magnetic reconnection are investigated with a three-dimensional (3-D) hybrid model. It is found that in the outflow region, a fraction of inflow ions are accelerated by the KAWs generated in the leading bulge region of reconnection, and their parallel velocities gradually increase up to slightly super-Alfv enic. As a result of waveparticle interactions, an accelerated ion beam forms in the direction of the anti-parallel magnetic field, in addition to the core ion population, leading to the development of non-Maxwellian velocity distributions, which include a trapped population with parallel velocities consistent with the wave speed. We then heat ions in both parallel and perpendicular directions. In the parallel direction, the heating results from nonlinear Landau resonance of trapped ions. In the perpendicular direction, however, evidence of stochastic heating by the KAWs is found during the acceleration stage, with an increase of magnetic moment μ. The coherence in the T more » $$\\perp$$ ion temperature and the perpendicular electric and magnetic fields of KAWs also provides evidence for perpendicular heating by KAWs. The parallel and perpendicular heating of the accelerated beam occur simultaneously, leading to the development of temperature anisotropy with the perpendicular temperature T $$\\perp$$>T $$\\parallel$$ temperature. The heating rate agrees with the damping rate of the KAWs, and the heating is dominated by the accelerated ion beam. In the later stage, with the increase of the fraction of the accelerated ions, interaction between the accelerated beam and the core population also contributes to the ion heating

Ion acceleration and heating by kinetic Alfvén waves associated with magnetic reconnection

DOE PAGES

Liang, Ji; Lin, Yu; Johnson, Jay R.; ...

2017-09-19

In a previous study on the generation and signatures of kinetic Alfv en waves (KAWs) associated with magnetic reconnection in a current sheet revealed that KAWs are a common feature during reconnection [Liang et al. J. Geophys. Res.: Space Phys. 121, 6526 (2016)]. In this paper, ion acceleration and heating by the KAWs generated during magnetic reconnection are investigated with a three-dimensional (3-D) hybrid model. It is found that in the outflow region, a fraction of inflow ions are accelerated by the KAWs generated in the leading bulge region of reconnection, and their parallel velocities gradually increase up to slightly super-Alfv enic. As a result of waveparticle interactions, an accelerated ion beam forms in the direction of the anti-parallel magnetic field, in addition to the core ion population, leading to the development of non-Maxwellian velocity distributions, which include a trapped population with parallel velocities consistent with the wave speed. We then heat ions in both parallel and perpendicular directions. In the parallel direction, the heating results from nonlinear Landau resonance of trapped ions. In the perpendicular direction, however, evidence of stochastic heating by the KAWs is found during the acceleration stage, with an increase of magnetic moment μ. The coherence in the T more » $$\\perp$$ ion temperature and the perpendicular electric and magnetic fields of KAWs also provides evidence for perpendicular heating by KAWs. The parallel and perpendicular heating of the accelerated beam occur simultaneously, leading to the development of temperature anisotropy with the perpendicular temperature T $$\\perp$$>T $$\\parallel$$ temperature. The heating rate agrees with the damping rate of the KAWs, and the heating is dominated by the accelerated ion beam. In the later stage, with the increase of the fraction of the accelerated ions, interaction between the accelerated beam and the core population also contributes to the ion heating

Interactions between urban heat islands and heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Lei; Oppenheimer, Michael; Zhu, Qing; Baldwin, Jane W.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Bou-Zeid, Elie; Guan, Kaiyu; Liu, Xu

2018-03-01

Heat waves (HWs) are among the most damaging climate extremes to human society. Climate models consistently project that HW frequency, severity, and duration will increase markedly over this century. For urban residents, the urban heat island (UHI) effect further exacerbates the heat stress resulting from HWs. Here we use a climate model to investigate the interactions between the UHI and HWs in 50 cities in the United States under current climate and future warming scenarios. We examine UHI2m (defined as urban-rural difference in 2m-height air temperature) and UHIs (defined as urban-rural difference in radiative surface temperature). Our results show significant sensitivity of the interaction between UHI and HWs to local background climate and warming scenarios. Sensitivity also differs between daytime and nighttime. During daytime, cities in the temperate climate region show significant synergistic effects between UHI and HWs in current climate, with an average of 0.4 K higher UHI2m or 2.8 K higher UHIs during HWs than during normal days. These synergistic effects, however, diminish in future warmer climates. In contrast, the daytime synergistic effects for cities in dry regions are insignificant in the current climate, but emerge in future climates. At night, the synergistic effects are similar across climate regions in the current climate, and are stronger in future climate scenarios. We use a biophysical factorization method to disentangle the mechanisms behind the interactions between UHI and HWs that explain the spatial-temporal patterns of the interactions. Results show that the difference in the increase of urban versus rural evaporation and enhanced anthropogenic heat emissions (air conditioning energy use) during HWs are key contributors to the synergistic effects during daytime. The contrast in water availability between urban and rural land plays an important role in determining the contribution of evaporation. At night, the enhanced release of stored

Circulating heat exchangers for oscillating wave engines and refrigerators

DOEpatents

Swift, Gregory W.; Backhaus, Scott N.

2003-10-28

An oscillating-wave engine or refrigerator having a regenerator or a stack in which oscillating flow of a working gas occurs in a direction defined by an axis of a trunk of the engine or refrigerator, incorporates an improved heat exchanger. First and second connections branch from the trunk at locations along the axis in selected proximity to one end of the regenerator or stack, where the trunk extends in two directions from the locations of the connections. A circulating heat exchanger loop is connected to the first and second connections. At least one fluidic diode within the circulating heat exchanger loop produces a superimposed steady flow component and oscillating flow component of the working gas within the circulating heat exchanger loop. A local process fluid is in thermal contact with an outside portion of the circulating heat exchanger loop.

[Analysis of gene expression pattern in peripheral blood leukocytes during experimental heat wave].

PubMed

Feoktistova, E S; Skamrov, A V; Goryunova, L E; Khaspekov, G L; Osyaeva, M K; Rodnenkov, O V; Beabealashvilli, R Sh

2017-03-01

The conditions of Moscow 2010 summer heat wave were simulated in an accommodation module. Six healthy men aged from 22 to 46 years stayed in the module for 30 days. Measurements of gene expression in peripheral blood leukocytes before, during and 3 day after simulated heat wave were performed using qRT-PCR. We observed a shift in the expression level of certain genes after heat exposure for a long time, and rapid return to the initial level, when volunteers leaved the accommodation module. Eight genes were chosen to form the "heat expression signature". EGR2, EGR3 were upregulated in all six volunteers, EGR1, SIRT1, CYP51A1, MAPK9, BAG5, MNDA were upregulated in 5 volunteers.

Effect of Latent Heat Released by Freezing Droplets during Frost Wave Propagation.

PubMed

Chavan, Shreyas; Park, Deokgeun; Singla, Nitish; Sokalski, Peter; Boyina, Kalyan; Miljkovic, Nenad

2018-05-21

Frost spreads on nonwetting surfaces during condensation frosting via an interdroplet frost wave. When a supercooled condensate water droplet freezes on a hydrophobic or superhydrophobic surface, neighboring droplets still in the liquid phase begin to evaporate. Two possible mechanisms govern the evaporation of neighboring water droplets: (1) The difference in saturation pressure of the water vapor surrounding the liquid and frozen droplets induces a vapor pressure gradient, and (2) the latent heat released by freezing droplets locally heats the substrate, leading to evaporation of nearby droplets. The relative significance of these two mechanisms is still not understood. Here, we study the significance of the latent heat released into the substrate by freezing droplets, and its effect on adjacent droplet evaporation, by studying the dynamics of individual water droplet freezing on aluminum-, copper-, and glass-based hydrophobic and superhydrophobic surfaces. The latent heat flux released into the substrate was calculated from the measured droplet sizes and the respective freezing times ( t f ), defined as the time from initial ice nucleation within the droplet to complete droplet freezing. To probe the effect of latent heat release, we performed three-dimensional transient finite element simulations showing that the transfer of latent heat to neighboring droplets is insignificant and accounts for a negligible fraction of evaporation during microscale frost wave propagation. Furthermore, we studied the effect of substrate thermal conductivity on the transfer of latent heat transfer to neighboring droplets by investigating the velocity of ice bridge formation. The velocity of the ice bridge was independent of the substrate thermal conductivity, indicating that adjacent droplet evaporation during condensation frosting is governed solely by vapor pressure gradients. This study not only provides key insights into the individual droplet freezing process but also

Heat waves measured with MODIS land surface temperature data predict changes in avian community structure

Treesearch

Thomas P. Albright; Anna M. Pidgeon; Chadwick D. Rittenhouse; Murray K. Clayton; Curtis H. Flather; Patrick D. Culbert; Volker C. Radeloff

2011-01-01

Heat waves are expected to become more frequent and severe as climate changes, with unknown consequences for biodiversity. We sought to identify ecologically-relevant broad-scale indicators of heat waves based on MODIS land surface temperature (LST) and interpolated air temperature data and assess their associations with avian community structure. Specifically, we...

Definition of temperature thresholds: the example of the French heat wave warning system.

PubMed

Pascal, Mathilde; Wagner, Vérène; Le Tertre, Alain; Laaidi, Karine; Honoré, Cyrille; Bénichou, Françoise; Beaudeau, Pascal

2013-01-01

Heat-related deaths should be somewhat preventable. In France, some prevention measures are activated when minimum and maximum temperatures averaged over three days reach city-specific thresholds. The current thresholds were computed based on a descriptive analysis of past heat waves and on local expert judgement. We tested whether a different method would confirm these thresholds. The study was set in the six cities of Paris, Lyon, Marseille, Nantes, Strasbourg and Limoges between 1973 and 2003. For each city, we estimated the excess in mortality associated with different temperature thresholds, using a generalised additive model, controlling for long-time trends, seasons and days of the week. These models were used to compute the mortality predicted by different percentiles of temperatures. The thresholds were chosen as the percentiles associated with a significant excess mortality. In all cities, there was a good correlation between current thresholds and the thresholds derived from the models, with 0°C to 3°C differences for averaged maximum temperatures. Both set of thresholds were able to anticipate the main periods of excess mortality during the summers of 1973 to 2003. A simple method relying on descriptive analysis and expert judgement is sufficient to define protective temperature thresholds and to prevent heat wave mortality. As temperatures are increasing along with the climate change and adaptation is ongoing, more research is required to understand if and when thresholds should be modified.

Mortality Related to Air Pollution with the Moscow Heat Wave and Wildfire of 2010

PubMed Central

Shaposhnikov, Dmitry; Revich, Boris; Bellander, Tom; Bedada, Getahun Bero; Bottai, Matteo; Kharkova, Tatyana; Kvasha, Ekaterina; Lezina, Elena; Lind, Tomas; Semutnikova, Eugenia

2014-01-01

Background: Prolonged high temperatures and air pollution from wildfires often occur together, and the two may interact in their effects on mortality. However, there are few data on such possible interactions. Methods: We analyzed day-to-day variations in the number of deaths in Moscow, Russia, in relation to air pollution levels and temperature during the disastrous heat wave and wildfire of 2010. Corresponding data for the period 2006–2009 were used for comparison. Daily average levels of PM10 and ozone were obtained from several continuous measurement stations. The daily number of nonaccidental deaths from specific causes was extracted from official records. Analyses of interactions considered the main effect of temperature as well as the added effect of prolonged high temperatures and the interaction with PM10. Results: The major heat wave lasted for 44 days, with 24-hour average temperatures ranging from 24°C to 31°C and PM10 levels exceeding 300 μg/m3 on several days. There were close to 11,000 excess deaths from nonaccidental causes during this period, mainly among those older than 65 years. Increased risks also occurred in younger age groups. The most pronounced effects were for deaths from cardiovascular, respiratory, genitourinary, and nervous system diseases. Continuously increasing risks following prolonged high temperatures were apparent during the first 2 weeks of the heat wave. Interactions between high temperatures and air pollution from wildfires in excess of an additive effect contributed to more than 2000 deaths. Conclusions: Interactions between high temperatures and wildfire air pollution should be considered in risk assessments regarding health consequences of climate change. PMID:24598414

Development of a spinning wave heat engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zinn, B. T.; Powell, E. A.; Hubbartt, J. E.

1982-01-01

A theoretical analysis and an experimental investigation were conducted to assess the feasibility of developing a spinning wave heat engine. Such as engine would utilize a large amplitude traveling acoustic wave rotating around a cylindrica chamber, and it should not suffer from the inefficiency, noise, and intermittent thrust which characterizes pulse jet engines. The objective of this investigation was to determine whether an artificially driven large amplitude spinning transverse wave could induce a steady flow of air through the combustion chamber under cold flow conditions. In the theoretical analysis the Maslen and Moore perturbation technique was extended to study flat cylinders (pancake geometry) with completely open side walls and a central opening. In the parallel experimental study, a test moel was used to determine resonant frequencies and radial pressure distributions, as well as oscillatory and steady flow velocities at the inner and outer peripheries. The experimental frequency was nearly the same as the theoretical acoustic value for a model of the same outer diameter but without a central hole. Although the theoretical analysis did not predict a steady velocity component, simulaneous measurements of hotwire and microphone responses have shown that the spinning wave pumps a mean flow radially outward through the cavity.

Anomalies of hydrological cycle components during the 2007 heat wave in Bulgaria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mircheva, Biliana; Tsekov, Milen; Meyer, Ulrich; Guerova, Guergana

2017-12-01

Heat waves have large adverse social, economic and environmental effects which include increased mortality, transport restrictions and a decreased agricultural production. The estimated economic losses of the 2007 heat wave in South-east Europe exceed 2 billion EUR with 19 000 hospitalisation in Romania only. Understanding the changes of the hydrological cycle components is essential for early forecasting of heat wave occurrence. Valuable insight of two components of the hydrological cycle, namely Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) and Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA), is now possible using observations from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. In this study anomalies of temperature, precipitation, IWV and TWS in 2007 are compared to 2003-2013 period for Sofia, Bulgaria. In 2007, positive temperature anomalies are observed in January, February and July. There are negative IWV and precipitation anomalies in July 2007 that coincides with the heat wave in Bulgaria. TWSA in 2007 are negative in January, May and from July to October being largest in August. Long-term trends of: 1) temperatures have a local maximum in March 2007, 2) TWSA has a local minimum in May 2007, 3) IWV has a local minimum in September 2007, and 4) precipitation has a local maximum in July 2007. The TWSA interannual trends in Bulgaria, Hungary and Poland show similar behaviour as indicated by cross correlation coefficients of 0.9 and 0.7 between Bulgaria and Hungary and Bulgaria and Poland respectively. ALADIN-Climate describes the anomalies of temperature and IWV more successfully than those of precipitation and TWS.

Heat waves imposed during early pod development in soybean (Glycine max) cause significant yield loss despite a rapid recovery from oxidative stress.

PubMed

Siebers, Matthew H; Yendrek, Craig R; Drag, David; Locke, Anna M; Rios Acosta, Lorena; Leakey, Andrew D B; Ainsworth, Elizabeth A; Bernacchi, Carl J; Ort, Donald R

2015-08-01

Heat waves already have a large impact on crops and are predicted to become more intense and more frequent in the future. In this study, heat waves were imposed on soybean using infrared heating technology in a fully open-air field experiment. Five separate heat waves were applied to field-grown soybean (Glycine max) in central Illinois, three in 2010 and two in 2011. Thirty years of historical weather data from Illinois were analyzed to determine the length and intensity of a regionally realistic heat wave resulting in experimental heat wave treatments during which day and night canopy temperatures were elevated 6 °C above ambient for 3 days. Heat waves were applied during early or late reproductive stages to determine whether and when heat waves had an impact on carbon metabolism and seed yield. By the third day of each heat wave, net photosynthesis (A), specific leaf weight (SLW), and leaf total nonstructural carbohydrate concentration (TNC) were decreased, while leaf oxidative stress was increased. However, A, SLW, TNC, and measures of oxidative stress were no different than the control ca. 12 h after the heat waves ended, indicating rapid physiological recovery from the high-temperature stress. That end of season seed yield was reduced (~10%) only when heat waves were applied during early pod developmental stages indicates the yield loss had more to do with direct impacts of the heat waves on reproductive process than on photosynthesis. Soybean was unable to mitigate yield loss after heat waves given during late reproductive stages. This study shows that short high-temperature stress events that reduce photosynthesis and increase oxidative stress resulted in significant losses to soybean production in the Midwest, U.S. The study also suggests that to mitigate heat wave-induced yield loss, soybean needs improved reproductive and photosynthetic tolerance to high but increasingly common temperatures. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is

[Media and public health: example of heat wave during summer 2003].

PubMed

Boyer, L; Robitail, S; Debensason, D; Auquier, P; San Marco, J-L

2005-11-01

The summer of 2003 was the hottest for France in the last 50 years with record day and nighttime temperatures. INSERM statistics estimated that 14,802 heat-related deaths occurred during August 2003 heat wave in France. In the aftermath of this crisis, we thought that it was useful to analyze how the French media dealt with public health during the period from June 1 to August 31, 2003. The objective was to analyze French coverage of public health information during the August 2003 heat wave. Manual and computerized analysis of newspaper and radio reports published from June 1 to August 31, 2003. Articles were obtained by searching the EUROPRESS database. Text analysis was performed using the ALCESTE software package. A total of 1,599 articles were analyzed. Few articles contained warnings about heat exposure and preventive measures. Public health policy was relegated to third place after business and ecology themes. The special problems of the high-risk populations were not mentioned until after the rising death toll was known and emphasis was placed on the implications of the crisis in the political process. The findings of this study show the poor performance of public health policy in France and that media must be given guidance to fulfil its role in providing public health information. This crisis discloses the absence of public health culture in France and involves the "social exclusion" related to a breakdown of social cohesion. More cooperation is needed between the media and public health professionals to avoid future heat-wave and other public health crises. France must develop a public health culture to promote involvement of both the community and individuals in public health issues.

Heat wave over India during summer 2015: an assessment of real time extended range forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattanaik, D. R.; Mohapatra, M.; Srivastava, A. K.; Kumar, Arun

2017-08-01

Hot winds are the marked feature of summer season in India during late spring preceding the climatological onset of the monsoon season in June. Some years the conditions becomes very vulnerable with the maximum temperature ( T max) exceeding 45 °C for many days over parts of north-western, eastern coastal states of India and Indo-Gangetic plain. During summer of 2015 (late May to early June) eastern coastal states, central and northwestern parts of India experienced severe heat wave conditions leading to loss of thousands of human life in extreme high temperature conditions. It is not only the loss of human life but also the animals and birds were very vulnerable to this extreme heat wave conditions. In this study, an attempt is made to assess the performance of real time extended range forecast (forecast up to 3 weeks) of this scorching T max based on the NCEP's Climate Forecast System (CFS) latest version coupled model (CFSv2). The heat wave condition was very severe during the week from 22 to 28 May with subsequent week from 29 May to 4 June also witnessed high T max over many parts of central India including eastern coastal states of India. The 8 ensemble members of operational CFSv2 model are used once in a week to prepare the weekly bias corrected deterministic (ensemble mean) T max forecast for 3 weeks valid from Friday to Thursday coinciding with the heat wave periods of 2015. Using the 8 ensemble members separately and the CFSv2 corresponding hindcast climatology the probability of above and below normal T max is also prepared for the same 3 weeks. The real time deterministic and probabilistic forecasts did indicate impending heat wave over many parts of India during late May and early June of 2015 associated with strong northwesterly wind over main land mass of India, delaying the sea breeze, leading to heat waves over eastern coastal regions of India. Thus, the capability of coupled model in providing early warning of such killer heat wave can be very

Application of ANNs approach for wave-like and heat-like equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jafarian, Ahmad; Baleanu, Dumitru

2017-12-01

Artificial neural networks are data processing systems which originate from human brain tissue studies. The remarkable abilities of these networks help us to derive desired results from complicated raw data. In this study, we intend to duplicate an efficient iterative method to the numerical solution of two famous partial differential equations, namely the wave-like and heat-like problems. It should be noted that many physical phenomena such as coupling currents in a flat multi-strand two-layer super conducting cable, non-homogeneous elastic waves in soils and earthquake stresses, are described by initial-boundary value wave and heat partial differential equations with variable coefficients. To the numerical solution of these equations, a combination of the power series method and artificial neural networks approach, is used to seek an appropriate bivariate polynomial solution of the mentioned initial-boundary value problem. Finally, several computer simulations confirmed the theoretical results and demonstrating applicability of the method.

The Impact of Heat Waves on Occurrence and Severity of Construction Accidents.

PubMed

Rameezdeen, Rameez; Elmualim, Abbas

2017-01-11

The impact of heat stress on human health has been extensively studied. Similarly, researchers have investigated the impact of heat stress on workers' health and safety. However, very little work has been done on the impact of heat stress on occupational accidents and their severity, particularly in South Australian construction. Construction workers are at high risk of injury due to heat stress as they often work outdoors, undertake hard manual work, and are often project based and sub-contracted. Little is known on how heat waves could impact on construction accidents and their severity. In order to provide more evidence for the currently limited number of empirical investigations on the impact of heat stress on accidents, this study analysed 29,438 compensation claims reported during 2002-2013 within the construction industry of South Australia. Claims reported during 29 heat waves in Adelaide were compared with control periods to elicit differences in the number of accidents reported and their severity. The results revealed that worker characteristics, type of work, work environment, and agency of accident mainly govern the severity. It is recommended that the implementation of adequate preventative measures in small-sized companies and civil engineering sites, targeting mainly old age workers could be a priority for Work, Health and Safety (WHS) policies.

The Impact of Heat Waves on Occurrence and Severity of Construction Accidents

PubMed Central

Rameezdeen, Rameez; Elmualim, Abbas

2017-01-01

The impact of heat stress on human health has been extensively studied. Similarly, researchers have investigated the impact of heat stress on workers’ health and safety. However, very little work has been done on the impact of heat stress on occupational accidents and their severity, particularly in South Australian construction. Construction workers are at high risk of injury due to heat stress as they often work outdoors, undertake hard manual work, and are often project based and sub-contracted. Little is known on how heat waves could impact on construction accidents and their severity. In order to provide more evidence for the currently limited number of empirical investigations on the impact of heat stress on accidents, this study analysed 29,438 compensation claims reported during 2002–2013 within the construction industry of South Australia. Claims reported during 29 heat waves in Adelaide were compared with control periods to elicit differences in the number of accidents reported and their severity. The results revealed that worker characteristics, type of work, work environment, and agency of accident mainly govern the severity. It is recommended that the implementation of adequate preventative measures in small-sized companies and civil engineering sites, targeting mainly old age workers could be a priority for Work, Health and Safety (WHS) policies. PMID:28085067

Ranking of European Capitals According to the Impact of Future Heat Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smid, M.; Costa, A. C.; Russo, S.; Pebesma, E. J.; Canut, C. G.

2017-12-01

In warming Europe, we are witnessing a growth in urban population with aging trend, which will make the society more vulnerable to extreme heat waves. In the period 1950-2015 the occurrence of extreme heat waves increased across European capitals. As an example, Moscow was hit by the strongest heat wave of the present era, killing more than ten thousand people. Here we focus on larger metropolitan areas of European capitals. By using observations and an ensemble of eight EURO-CORDEX models under the RCP8.5 scenario, we calculate a suite of temperature based climate indices. We introduce a simple ranking procedure based on ensemble predictions using the mean of metropolitan grid cells for each capital, and population density as a proxy to quantify the future impact. Results show that the selected ensemble provides solid simulation of climate characteristics over most of the targeted metropolitan areas. All the investigated European metropolitan areas will be more vulnerable to extreme heat in the coming decades. Based on the impact ranking, the results reveal that in near, but mainly in distant future, the extreme heat events in European capitals will be not exclusive to traditionally exposed areas such as the Mediterranean and the Iberian Peninsula. The ranking of European capitals based on their vulnerability to the extreme heat could be of paramount importance to the decision makers in order to mitigate the heat related mortality, especially with the foreseen increase of global mean temperature. Acknowledgments: The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of Geoinformatics: Enabling Open Cities (GEO-C), the project funded by the European Commission within the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions, International Training Networks (ITN), European Joint Doctorates (EJD). Grant Agreement number 642332 — GEO-C — H2020-MSCA-ITN-2014.

Evaluation of the effects of one cold wave on heating energy consumption in different regions of northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, D.; Xiao, W.; Wang, J.; Wang, H.; Zhao, Y.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

The heating energy consumption per floor area (HECPA) and heating degree days (HDD) are effective indicators in quantifying the energy demand for heating with climate change. Using the heating energy consumption and meteorological data, an attempt has been made to analyse the relationship between the HECPA and HDD in different regions of northern China by the linear regression model. Based on the constructed model, the effects of one cold wave on heating energy consumption in different regions are evaluated. The results show that the HECPA and HDD in Beijing have a positive correlation with a correlation coefficient of 0.68. During the cold wave in 2016, the heating energy consumption in Beijing approximately increases 2.37 per cent compared with 2014. However, no correlation has been found between the HECPA and HDD in the relatively undeveloped regions. It seems that the cold wave has a greater effect on the developed regions than relatively undeveloped ones. It is considered that the reasons for the little effect of one cold wave on heating energy consumption in the undeveloped regions are outdated heating systems, insufficient energy supply for heating and low living standards.

Pre-supernova outbursts via wave heating in massive stars - II. Hydrogen-poor stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuller, Jim; Ro, Stephen

2018-05-01

Pre-supernova (SN) outbursts from massive stars may be driven by hydrodynamical wave energy emerging from the core of the progenitor star during late nuclear-burning phases. Here, we examine the effects of wave heating in stars containing little or no hydrogen, i.e. progenitors of Type IIb/Ib SNe. Because there is no massive hydrogen envelope, wave energy is thermalized near the stellar surface where the overlying atmospheric mass is small but the optical depth is large. Wave energy can thus unbind this material, driving an optically thick, super-Eddington wind. Using 1D hydrodynamic MESA simulations of ˜5 M⊙ He stars, we find that wave heating can drive pre-SN outbursts composed of a dense wind whose mass-loss rate can exceed ˜0.1 M⊙ yr-1. The wind terminal velocities are a few 100 km s-1, and outburst luminosities can reach ˜106 L⊙. Wave-driven outbursts may be linked with observed or inferred pre-SN outbursts of Type Ibn/transitional/transformational SNe, and pre-SN wave-driven mass loss is a good candidate to produce these types of SNe. However, we also show that non-linear wave breaking in the core of the star may prevent such outbursts in stars with thick convective helium-burning shells. Hence, only a limited subset of SN progenitors is likely to experience wave-driven pre-SN outbursts.

Heat Waves, Urban Vegetation, and Air Pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Churkina, G.; Grote, R.; Butler, T. M.

2014-12-01

Fast-track programs to plant millions of trees in cities around the world aim at the reduction of summer temperatures, increase carbon storage, storm water control, provision of space for recreation, as well as poverty alleviation. Although these multiple benefits speak positively for urban greening programs, the programs do not take into account how close human and natural systems are coupled in urban areas. Elevated temperatures together with anthropogenic emissions of air and water pollutants distinguish the urban system. Urban and sub-urban vegetation responds to ambient changes and reacts with pollutants. Neglecting the existence of this coupling may lead to unforeseen drawbacks of urban greening programs. The potential for emissions from urban vegetation combined with anthropogenic emissions to produce ozone has long been recognized. This potential increases under rising temperatures. Here we investigate how global change induced heat waves affect emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) from urban vegetation and corresponding ground-level ozone levels. We also quantify other ecosystem services provided by urban vegetation (e.g., cooling and carbon storage) and their sensitivity to climate change. In this study we use Weather Research and Forecasting Model with coupled atmospheric chemistry (WRF-CHEM) to quantify these feedbacks in Berlin, Germany during the heat waves in 2003 and 2006. We highlight the importance of the vegetation for urban areas under changing climate and discuss associated tradeoffs.

Effect of Indoor Temperature on Physical Performance in Older Adults during Days with Normal Temperature and Heat Waves.

PubMed

Lindemann, Ulrich; Stotz, Anja; Beyer, Nina; Oksa, Juha; Skelton, Dawn A; Becker, Clemens; Rapp, Kilian; Klenk, Jochen

2017-02-14

Indoor temperature is relevant with regard to mortality and heat-related self-perceived health problems. The aim of this study was to describe the association between indoor temperature and physical performance in older adults. Eighty-one older adults (84% women, mean age 80.9 years, standard deviation 6.53) were visited every four weeks from May to October 2015 and additionally during two heat waves in July and August 2015. Indoor temperature, habitual gait speed, chair-rise performance and balance were assessed. Baseline assessment of gait speed was used to create two subgroups (lower versus higher gait speed) based on frailty criteria. The strongest effect of increasing temperature on habitual gait speed was observed in the subgroup of adults with higher gait speed (-0.087 m/s per increase of 10 °C; 95% confidence interval (CI): -0.136; -0.038). The strongest effects on timed chair-rise and balance performance were observed in the subgroup of adults with lower gait speed (2.03 s per increase of 10 °C (95% CI: 0.79; 3.28) and -3.92 s per increase of 10 °C (95% CI: -7.31; -0.52), respectively). Comparing results of physical performance in absentia of a heat wave and during a heat wave, habitual gait speed was negatively affected by heat in the total group and subgroup of adults with higher gait speed, chair-rise performance was negatively affected in all groups and balance was not affected. The study provides arguments for exercise interventions in general for older adults, because a better physical fitness might alleviate impediments of physical capacity and might provide resources for adequate adaptation in older adults during heat stress.

The effect of induced heat waves on Pinus taeda and Quercus rubra seedlings in ambient and elevated CO2 atmospheres.

PubMed

Ameye, Maarten; Wertin, Timothy M; Bauweraerts, Ingvar; McGuire, Mary Anne; Teskey, Robert O; Steppe, Kathy

2012-10-01

Here, we investigated the effect of different heat-wave intensities applied at two atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]) on seedlings of two tree species, loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) and northern red oak (Quercus rubra). Seedlings were assigned to treatment combinations of two levels of [CO2] (380 or 700 μmol mol(-1)) and four levels of air temperature (ambient, ambient +3°C, or 7-d heat waves consisting of a biweekly +6°C heat wave, or a monthly +12°C heat wave). Treatments were maintained throughout the growing season, thus receiving equal heat sums. We measured gas exchange and fluorescence parameters before, during and after a mid-summer heat wave. The +12°C heat wave, significantly reduced net photosynthesis (Anet) in both species and [CO2] treatments but this effect was diminished in elevated [CO2]. The decrease in Anet was accompanied by a decrease in Fv'/Fm' in P. taeda and ΦPSII in Q. rubra. Our findings suggest that, if soil moisture is adequate, trees will experience negative effects in photosynthetic performance only with the occurrence of extreme heat waves. As elevated [CO2] diminished these negative effects, the future climate may not be as detrimental to plant communities as previously assumed. © 2012 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2012 New Phytologist Trust.

Al 1s-2p Absorption Spectroscopy of Shock-Wave Heating and Compression in Laser-Driven Planar Foil

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sawada, H.; Regan, S.P.; Radha, P.B.

Time-resolved Al 1s-2p absorption spectroscopy is used to diagnose direct-drive, shock-wave heating and compression of planar targets having nearly Fermi-degenerate plasma conditions (Te ~ 10–40 eV, rho ~ 3–11 g/cm^3) on the OMEGA Laser System [T. R. Boehly et al., Opt. Commun. 133, 495 (1997)]. A planar plastic foil with a buried Al tracer layer was irradiated with peak intensities of 10^14–10^15 W/cm^2 and probed with the pseudocontinuum M-band emission from a point-source Sm backlighter in the range of 1.4–1.7 keV. The laser ablation process launches 10–70 Mbar shock waves into the CH/Al/CH target. The Al 1s-2p absorption spectra weremore » analyzed using the atomic physic code PRISMSPECT to infer Te and rho in the Al layer, assuming uniform plasma conditions during shock-wave heating, and to determine when the heat front penetrated the Al layer. The drive foils were simulated with the one-dimensional hydrodynamics code LILAC using a flux-limited (f =0.06 and f =0.1) and nonlocal thermal-transport model [V. N. Goncharov et al., Phys. Plasmas 13, 012702 (2006)]. The predictions of simulated shock-wave heating and the timing of heat-front penetration are compared to the observations. The experimental results for a wide variety of laser-drive conditions and buried depths have shown that the LILAC predictions using f = 0.06 and the nonlocal model accurately model the shock-wave heating and timing of the heat-front penetration while the shock is transiting the target. The observed discrepancy between the measured and simulated shock-wave heating at late times of the drive can be explained by the reduced radiative heating due to lateral heat flow in the corona.« less

Excess mortality related to the August 2003 heat wave in France

PubMed Central

Fouillet, Anne; Rey, Grégoire; Laurent, Françoise; Pavillon, Gérard; Bellec, Stéphanie; Ghihenneuc-Jouyaux, Chantal; Clavel, Jacqueline; Jougla, Eric; Hémon, Denis

2006-01-01

Objectives From August 1st to 20th, 2003, the mean maximum temperature in France exceeded the seasonal norm by 11 to 12°C on nine consecutive days. A major increase in mortality was then observed, which main epidemiological features are described herein. Methods The number of deaths observed from August to November, 2003 in France was compared to those expected on the basis of the mortality rates observed from 2000 to 2002 and the 2003 population estimates. Results From August 1st to 20th, 2003, 15000 excess deaths were observed. From 35 years age, the excess mortality was marked and increased with age. It was 15% higher in women than in men of comparable age as of age 45 years. Excess mortality at home and in retirement institutions was greater than that in hospitals. The mortality of widowed, single and divorced subjects was greater than that of married people. Deaths directly related to heat, heatstroke, hyperthermia and dehydration increased massively. Cardiovascular diseases, ill-defined morbid disorders, respiratory diseases and nervous system diseases also markedly contributed to the excess mortality. The geographic variations in mortality showed a clear age-dependent relationship with the number of very hot days. No harvesting effect was observed. Conclusions Heat waves must be considered as a threat to European populations living in climates that are currently temperate. While the elderly and people living alone are particularly vulnerable to heat waves, no segment of the population may be considered protected from the risks associated with heat waves. PMID:16523319

The short-term effect of heat waves on mortality and its modifiers in China: an analysis from 66 communities.

PubMed

Ma, Wenjun; Zeng, Weilin; Zhou, Maigeng; Wang, Lijun; Rutherford, Shannon; Lin, Hualiang; Liu, Tao; Zhang, Yonghui; Xiao, Jianpeng; Zhang, Yewu; Wang, Xiaofeng; Gu, Xin; Chu, Cordia

2015-02-01

Many studies have reported increased mortality risk associated with heat waves. However, few have assessed the health impacts at a nation scale in a developing country. This study examines the mortality effects of heat waves in China and explores whether the effects are modified by individual-level and community-level characteristics. Daily mortality and meteorological variables from 66 Chinese communities were collected for the period 2006-2011. Heat waves were defined as ≥2 consecutive days with mean temperature ≥95th percentile of the year-round community-specific distribution. The community-specific mortality effects of heat waves were first estimated using a Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM), adjusting for potential confounders. To investigate effect modification by individual characteristics (age, gender, cause of death, education level or place of death), separate DLNM models were further fitted. Potential effect modification by community characteristics was examined using a meta-regression analysis. A total of 5.0% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 2.9%-7.2%) excess deaths were associated with heat waves in 66 Chinese communities, with the highest excess deaths in north China (6.0%, 95% CI: 1%-11.3%), followed by east China (5.2%, 95% CI: 0.4%-10.2%) and south China (4.5%, 95% CI: 1.4%-7.6%). Our results indicate that individual characteristics significantly modified heat waves effects in China, with greater effects on cardiovascular mortality, cerebrovascular mortality, respiratory mortality, the elderly, females, the population dying outside of a hospital and those with a higher education attainment. Heat wave mortality effects were also more pronounced for those living in urban cities or densely populated communities. Heat waves significantly increased mortality risk in China with apparent spatial heterogeneity, which was modified by some individual-level and community-level factors. Our findings suggest adaptation plans that target vulnerable

[Physical and mechanical properties of the thermosetting resin for crown and bridge cured by micro-wave heating].

PubMed

Kaneko, K

1989-09-01

A heating method using micro-waves was utilized to obtain strong thermosetting resin for crown and bridge. The physical and mechanical properties of the thermosetting resin were examined. The resin was cured in a shorter time by the micro-waves heating method than by the conventional heat curing method and the working time was reduced markedly. The base resins of the thermosetting resin for crown and bridge for the micro-waves heating method were 2 PA and diluent 3 G. A compounding volume of 30 wt% for diluent 3 G was considered good the results of compressive strength, bending strength and diametral tensile strength. Grams of 200-230 of the filler compounded to the base resins of 2 PA-3 G system provided optimal compressive strength, bending strength and diametral tensile strength. A filler gram of 230 provided optimal hardness and curing shrinkage rate, the coefficient of thermal expansion became smaller with the increase of the compounding volume of the filler. The trial thermosetting resin for crown and bridge formed by the micro-waves heating method was not inferior to the conventional resin by the heat curing method or the light curing method.

The temporal behaviour of MHD waves in a partially ionized prominence-like plasma: Effect of heating and cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballester, J. L.; Carbonell, M.; Soler, R.; Terradas, J.

2018-01-01

Context. During heating or cooling processes in prominences, the plasma microscopic parameters are modified due to the change of temperature and ionization degree. Furthermore, if waves are excited on this non-stationary plasma, the changing physical conditions of the plasma also affect wave dynamics. Aims: Our aim is to study how temporal variation of temperature and microscopic plasma parameters modify the behaviour of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves excited in a prominence-like hydrogen plasma. Methods: Assuming optically thin radiation, a constant external heating, the full expression of specific internal energy, and a suitable energy equation, we have derived the profiles for the temporal variation of the background temperature. We have computed the variation of the ionization degree using a Saha equation, and have linearized the single-fluid MHD equations to study the temporal behaviour of MHD waves. Results: For all the MHD waves considered, the period and damping time become time dependent. In the case of Alfvén waves, the cut-off wavenumbers also become time dependent and the attenuation rate is completely different in a cooling or heating process. In the case of slow waves, while it is difficult to distinguish the slow wave properties in a cooling partially ionized plasma from those in an almost fully ionized plasma, the period and damping time of these waves in both plasmas are completely different when the plasma is heated. The temporal behaviour of the Alfvén and fast wave is very similar in the cooling case, but in the heating case, an important difference appears that is related with the time damping. Conclusions: Our results point out important differences in the behaviour of MHD waves when the plasma is heated or cooled, and show that a correct interpretation of the observed prominence oscillations is very important in order to put accurate constraints on the physical situation of the prominence plasma under study, that is, to perform prominence

Impact of simulated heat waves on soybean physiology and yield

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

With increases in mean global temperatures and associated climate change, extreme temperature events are predicted to increase in both intensity and frequency. Despite the clearly documented negative public health impacts of heat waves, the impact on physiology and yields of key agricultural species...

PROTON HEATING IN SOLAR WIND COMPRESSIBLE TURBULENCE WITH COLLISIONS BETWEEN COUNTER-PROPAGATING WAVES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

He, Jiansen; Tu, Chuanyi; Wang, Linghua

Magnetohydronamic turbulence is believed to play a crucial role in heating laboratory, space, and astrophysical plasmas. However, the precise connection between the turbulent fluctuations and the particle kinetics has not yet been established. Here we present clear evidence of plasma turbulence heating based on diagnosed wave features and proton velocity distributions from solar wind measurements by the Wind spacecraft. For the first time, we can report the simultaneous observation of counter-propagating magnetohydrodynamic waves in the solar wind turbulence. As opposed to the traditional paradigm with counter-propagating Alfvén waves (AWs), anti-sunward AWs are encountered by sunward slow magnetosonic waves (SMWs) inmore » this new type of solar wind compressible turbulence. The counter-propagating AWs and SWs correspond, respectively, to the dominant and sub-dominant populations of the imbalanced Elsässer variables. Nonlinear interactions between the AWs and SMWs are inferred from the non-orthogonality between the possible oscillation direction of one wave and the possible propagation direction of the other. The associated protons are revealed to exhibit bi-directional asymmetric beams in their velocity distributions: sunward beams appear in short, narrow patterns and anti-sunward in broad extended tails. It is suggested that multiple types of wave–particle interactions, i.e., cyclotron and Landau resonances with AWs and SMWs at kinetic scales, are taking place to jointly heat the protons perpendicular and in parallel.« less

Lower solar chromosphere-corona transition region. II - Wave pressure effects for a specific form of the heating function

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woods, D. Tod; Holzer, Thomas E.; Macgregor, Keith B.

1990-01-01

Lower transition region models with a balance between mechanical heating and radiative losses are expanded to include wave pressure effects. The models are used to study the simple damping length form of the heating function. The results are compared to the results obtained by Woods et al. (1990) for solutions in the lower transition region. The results suggest that a mixture of fast-mode and slow-mode waves may provide the appropriate heating mechanism in the lower transition region, with the decline in effective vertical wave speed caused by the refraction and eventual total reflection of the fast-mode wave resulting from the decreasing atmospheric density.

New Nomenclatures for Heat Treatments of Additively Manufactured Titanium Alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Andrew H.; Collins, Peter C.; Williams, James C.

2017-07-01

The heat-treatment designations and microstructure nomenclatures for many structural metallic alloys were established for traditional metals processing, such as casting, hot rolling or forging. These terms do not necessarily apply for additively manufactured (i.e., three-dimensionally printed or "3D printed") metallic structures. The heat-treatment terminology for titanium alloys generally implies the heat-treatment temperatures and their sequence relative to a thermomechanical processing step (e.g., forging, rolling). These designations include: β-processing, α + β-processing, β-annealing, duplex annealing and mill annealing. Owing to the absence of a thermomechanical processing step, these traditional designations can pose a problem when titanium alloys are first produced via additive manufacturing, and then heat-treated. This communication proposes new nomenclatures for heat treatments of additively manufactured titanium alloys, and uses the distinct microstructural features to provide a correlation between traditional nomenclature and the proposed nomenclature.

Land surface and atmospheric conditions associated with heat waves in the South Central United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Eungul; Bieda, Rahama; Shanmugasundaram, Jothiganesh; Richter, Heather

2017-04-01

Exposure to extreme heat was reconstructed based on regional land-atmosphere processes from 1979 to 2010 in the South Central U.S. The study region surrounds the Chickasaw Nation (CN), a predominantly Native American population with a highly prevalent burden of climate-sensitive chronic diseases. Land surface and atmospheric conditions for summer heat waves were analyzed during spring (March-April-May, MAM) and summer (June-July-August, JJA) based on the Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability, and Change maximum temperature definition for heat wave frequency (HWF). The spatial-temporal pattern of HWF was determined using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and the corresponding principle component time series of the first EOF of HWF. Statistically significant analyses of observed conditions indicated that sensible heat increased and latent heat fluxes decreased with high HWF in the South Central U.S. The largest positive correlations of sensible heat flux to HWF and the largest negative correlations of latent heat flux to HWF were specifically observed over the CN. This is a significantly different energy transfer regime due to less available soil moisture during the antecedent MAM and JJA. The higher sensible heat from dry soil could cause significant warming from the near surface (> 2.0°C) to the lower troposphere (> 1.5°C), and accumulated boundary layer heat could induce the significant patterns of higher geopotential height and enhance anticyclonic circulations (negative vorticity anomaly) at the midtroposphere. Results suggested a positive land-atmosphere feedback associated with heat waves and called attention to the need for region-specific climate adaptation planning.

Resonance localization and poloidal electric field due to cyclo- tron wave heating in tokamak plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hsu, J.Y.; Chan, V.S.; Harvey, R.W.

1984-08-06

The perpendicular heating in cyclotron waves tends to pile up the resonant particles toward the low magnetic field side with their banana tips localized to the resonant surface. A poloidal electric field with an E x B drift comparable to the ion vertical drift in a toroidal magnetic field may result. With the assumption of anomalous electron and neoclassical ion transport, density variations due to wave heating are discussed.

Extended-range forecasting of Chinese summer surface air temperature and heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Zhiwei; Li, Tim

2018-03-01

Because of growing demand from agricultural planning, power management and activity scheduling, extended-range (5-30-day lead) forecasting of summer surface air temperature (SAT) and heat waves over China is carried out in the present study via spatial-temporal projection models (STPMs). Based on the training data during 1960-1999, the predictability sources are found to propagate from Europe, Northeast Asia, and the tropical Pacific, to influence the intraseasonal 10-80 day SAT over China. STPMs are therefore constructed using the projection domains, which are determined by these previous predictability sources. For the independent forecast period (2000-2013), the STPMs can reproduce EOF-filtered 30-80 day SAT at all lead times of 5-30 days over most part of China, and observed 30-80 and 10-80 day SAT at 25-30 days over eastern China. Significant pattern correlation coefficients account for more than 50% of total forecasts at all 5-30-day lead times against EOF-filtered and observed 30-80 day SAT, and at a 20-day lead time against observed 10-80 day SAT. The STPMs perform poorly in reproducing 10-30 day SAT. Forecasting for the first two modes of 10-30 day SAT only shows useful skill within a 15-day lead time. Forecasting for the third mode of 10-30 day SAT is useless after a 10-day lead time. The forecasted heat waves over China are determined by the reconstructed SAT which is the summation of the forecasted 10-80 day SAT and the lower frequency (longer than 80-day) climatological SAT. Over a large part of China, the STPMs can forecast more than 30% of heat waves within a 15-day lead time. In general, the STPMs demonstrate the promising skill for extended-range forecasting of Chinese summer SAT and heat waves.

Multi-fluid Approach to High-frequency Waves in Plasmas. III. Nonlinear Regime and Plasma Heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Gómez, David; Soler, Roberto; Terradas, Jaume

2018-03-01

The multi-fluid modeling of high-frequency waves in partially ionized plasmas has shown that the behavior of magnetohydrodynamic waves in the linear regime is heavily influenced by the collisional interaction between the different species that form the plasma. Here, we go beyond linear theory and study large-amplitude waves in partially ionized plasmas using a nonlinear multi-fluid code. It is known that in fully ionized plasmas, nonlinear Alfvén waves generate density and pressure perturbations. Those nonlinear effects are more pronounced for standing oscillations than for propagating waves. By means of numerical simulations and analytical approximations, we examine how the collisional interaction between ions and neutrals affects the nonlinear evolution. The friction due to collisions dissipates a fraction of the wave energy, which is transformed into heat and consequently raises the temperature of the plasma. As an application, we investigate frictional heating in a plasma with physical conditions akin to those in a quiescent solar prominence.

Effect of heat wave at the initial stage in spark plasma sintering.

PubMed

Zhang, Long; Zhang, Xiaomin; Chu, Zhongxiang; Peng, Song; Yan, Zimin; Liang, Yuan

2016-01-01

Thermal effects are important considerations at the initial stage in spark plasma sintering of non-conductive Al2O3 powders. The generalized thermo-elastic theory is introduced to describe the influence of the heat transport and thermal focusing caused by thermal wave propagation within a constrained space and transient time. Simulations show that low sintering temperature can realize high local temperature because of the superposition effect of heat waves. Thus, vacancy concentration differences between the sink and the cross section of the particles increase relative to that observed during pressure-less and hot-pressure sintering. Results show that vacancy concentration differences are significantly improved during spark plasma sintering, thereby decreasing the time required for sintering.

ELF/VLF Wave Generation and Scattering from Modulated Heating of the Ionosphere at Arecibo Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxworth, A. S.; Golkowski, M.; McCormick, J.; Cohen, M.; Hosseini, P.; Bittle, J.

2017-12-01

The recently completed ionospheric heater at Arecibo Observatory is used for modulated HF (5 or 8 MHz) heating of the ionosphere, to generate ELF/VLF (3 Hz - 30 kHz) waves. Observation of ramp and tone signals at frequencies from hundreds of Hz to several kHz at multiple receivers confirms the ability of the heater to modulate D region currents and create an ELF/VLF antenna in the ionosphere. Observed ELF/VLF signal amplitudes are lower than for similar experiments performed at high latitudes at the HAARP and Tromso facilities, for a variety of reasons including the reduced natural currents at mid latitudes, and the lower HF power of the Arecibo heater. The heating of the overhead ionosphere is also observed to change the Earth-ionosphere waveguide propagation characteristics as is evident from simultaneous observations of lightning induced sferics and VLF transmitter signals that propagate under the heated region. The active heating of the ionosphere modifies the reflection of incident VLF (3-30 kHz) waves. We present initial observations of HF heating of the D-region and resulting ELF/VLF wave generation.

An experimental heat wave changes immune defense and life history traits in a freshwater snail.

PubMed

Leicht, Katja; Jokela, Jukka; Seppälä, Otto

2013-12-01

The predicted increase in frequency and severity of heat waves due to climate change is expected to alter disease dynamics by reducing hosts' ability to resist infections. This could take place via two different mechanisms: (1) through general reduction in hosts' performance under harsh environmental conditions and/or (2) through altered resource allocation that reduces expression of defense traits in order to maintain other traits. We tested these alternative hypotheses by measuring the effect of an experimental heat wave (25 vs. 15°C) on the constitutive level of immune defense (hemocyte concentration, phenoloxidase [PO]-like activity, antibacterial activity of hemolymph), and life history traits (growth and number of oviposited eggs) of the great pond snail Lymnaea stagnalis. We also manipulated the exposure time to high temperature (1, 3, 5, 7, 9, or 11 days). We found that if the exposure to high temperature lasted <1 week, immune function was not affected. However, when the exposure lasted longer than that, the level of snails' immune function (hemocyte concentration and PO-like activity) was reduced. Snails' growth and reproduction increased within the first week of exposure to high temperature. However, longer exposures did not lead to a further increase in cumulative reproductive output. Our results show that short experimental heat waves do not alter immune function but lead to plastic responses that increase snails' growth and reproduction. Thus, although the relative expression of traits changes, short experimental heat waves do not impair snails' defenses. Negative effects on performance get pronounced when the heat waves are prolonged suggesting that high performance cannot be maintained over long time periods. This ultimately reduces the levels of defense traits.

Evaluation of the Ability of S2S and NMME Models to Predict Heat Waves Following Drought Events in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, T.; Dirmeyer, P.

2016-12-01

The influence of antecedent drought conditions on the onset of heat waves in North America is important as the establishment of past heat wave events has been connected to both advection of warm, dry air and limitation of local moisture recycling due to dry soils. The strong connection between the land surface and subsequent extreme heat offers promise that realistic soil moisture initialization could improve model forecast skill. However, there is still a lack of consensus about the (1) the role of antecedent drought conditions in forcing heat waves over North America and (2) the ability of numerical forecast models to predict extreme heat events at sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales. For this project, we use atmospheric reanalysis datasets to establish the connection between drought and subsequent extreme heat events. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), computed over 30-, 60-, and 90-day intervals, is used to identify drought events, while the excess heat factor defines subsequent heat wave events. We focus on heat waves immediately following drought periods, including events coinciding with but not beginning prior to the start of drought, as well as heat wave events beginning no more than 3 days after the demise of a drought event. Hindcasts from individual model ensemble members of the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S) Project and the Phase II of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) are assessed with regard to heat wave prediction. Each individual S2S and NMME ensemble member is evaluated to determine if their respective hindcasts are able to capture/predict heat wave events identified in the reanalysis products.

Tropical Gravity Wave Momentum Fluxes and Latent Heating Distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geller, Marvin A.; Zhou, Tiehan; Love, Peter T.

2015-01-01

Recent satellite determinations of global distributions of absolute gravity wave (GW) momentum fluxes in the lower stratosphere show maxima over the summer subtropical continents and little evidence of GW momentum fluxes associated with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). This seems to be at odds with parameterizations forGWmomentum fluxes, where the source is a function of latent heating rates, which are largest in the region of the ITCZ in terms of monthly averages. The authors have examined global distributions of atmospheric latent heating, cloud-top-pressure altitudes, and lower-stratosphere absolute GW momentum fluxes and have found that monthly averages of the lower-stratosphere GW momentum fluxes more closely resemble the monthly mean cloud-top altitudes rather than the monthly mean rates of latent heating. These regions of highest cloud-top altitudes occur when rates of latent heating are largest on the time scale of cloud growth. This, plus previously published studies, suggests that convective sources for stratospheric GW momentum fluxes, being a function of the rate of latent heating, will require either a climate model to correctly model this rate of latent heating or some ad hoc adjustments to account for shortcomings in a climate model's land-sea differences in convective latent heating.

Al 1s-2p absorption spectroscopy of shock-wave heating and compression in laser-driven planar foil

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sawada, H.; Regan, S. P.; Radha, P. B.

Time-resolved Al 1s-2p absorption spectroscopy is used to diagnose direct-drive, shock-wave heating and compression of planar targets having nearly Fermi-degenerate plasma conditions (T{sub e}{approx}10-40 eV, {rho}{approx}3-11 g/cm{sup 3}) on the OMEGA Laser System [T. R. Boehly et al., Opt. Commun. 133, 495 (1997)]. A planar plastic foil with a buried Al tracer layer was irradiated with peak intensities of 10{sup 14}-10{sup 15} W/cm{sup 2} and probed with the pseudocontinuum M-band emission from a point-source Sm backlighter in the range of 1.4-1.7 keV. The laser ablation process launches 10-70 Mbar shock waves into the CH/Al/CH target. The Al 1s-2p absorption spectramore » were analyzed using the atomic physic code PRISMSPECT to infer T{sub e} and {rho} in the Al layer, assuming uniform plasma conditions during shock-wave heating, and to determine when the heat front penetrated the Al layer. The drive foils were simulated with the one-dimensional hydrodynamics code LILAC using a flux-limited (f=0.06 and f=0.1) and nonlocal thermal-transport model [V. N. Goncharov et al., Phys. Plasmas 13, 012702 (2006)]. The predictions of simulated shock-wave heating and the timing of heat-front penetration are compared to the observations. The experimental results for a wide variety of laser-drive conditions and buried depths have shown that the LILAC predictions using f=0.06 and the nonlocal model accurately model the shock-wave heating and timing of the heat-front penetration while the shock is transiting the target. The observed discrepancy between the measured and simulated shock-wave heating at late times of the drive can be explained by the reduced radiative heating due to lateral heat flow in the corona.« less

Wave propagation and noncollisional heating in neutral loop and helicon discharges

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Celik, Y.; Crintea, D. L.; Luggenhoelscher, D.

2011-02-15

Heating mechanisms in two types of magnetized low pressure rf (13.56 MHz) discharges are investigated: a helicon discharge and a neutral loop discharge. Radial B-dot probe measurements demonstrate that the neutral loop discharge is sustained by helicon waves as well. Axial B-dot probe measurements reveal standing wave and beat patterns depending on the dc magnetic field strength and plasma density. In modes showing a strong wave damping, the plasma refractive index attains values around 100, leading to electron-wave interactions. In strongly damped modes, the radial plasma density profiles are mainly determined by power absorption of the propagating helicon wave, whereasmore » in weakly damped modes, inductive coupling dominates. Furthermore, an azimuthal diamagnetic drift is identified. Measurements of the helicon wave phase demonstrate that initial plane wave fronts are bent during their axial propagation due to the inhomogeneous density profile. A developed analytical standing wave model including Landau damping reproduces very well the damping of the axial helicon wave field. This comparison underlines the theory whereupon Landau damping of electrons traveling along the field lines at speeds close to the helicon phase velocity is the main damping mechanism in both discharges.« less

Heating and acceleration of solar wind ions by turbulent wave spectrum in inhomogeneous expanding plasma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ofman, Leon, E-mail: Leon.Ofman@nasa.gov; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD; Visiting, Department of Geosciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv

Near the Sun (< 10R{sub s}) the acceleration, heating, and propagation of the solar wind are likely affected by the background inhomogeneities of the magnetized plasma. The heating and the acceleration of the solar wind ions by turbulent wave spectrum in inhomogeneous plasma is studied using a 2.5D hybrid model. The hybrid model describes the kinetics of the ions, while the electrons are modeled as massless neutralizing fluid in an expanding box approach. Turbulent magnetic fluctuations dominated by power-law frequency spectra, which are evident from in-situ as well as remote sensing measurements, are used in our models. The effects ofmore » background density inhomogeneity across the magnetic field on the resonant ion heating are studied. The effect of super-Alfvénic ion drift on the ion heating is investigated. It is found that the turbulent wave spectrum of initially parallel propagating waves cascades to oblique modes, and leads to enhanced resonant ion heating due to the inhomogeneity. The acceleration of the solar wind ions is achieved by the parametric instability of large amplitude waves in the spectrum, and is also affected by the inhomogeneity. The results of the study provide the ion temperature anisotropy and drift velocity temporal evolution due to relaxation of the instability. The non-Maxwellian velocity distribution functions (VDFs) of the ions are modeled in the inhomogeneous solar wind plasma in the acceleration region close to the Sun.« less

Heating and Acceleration of Solar Wind Ions by Turbulent Wave Spectrum in Inhomogeneous Expanding Plasma

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ofman, Leon; Ozak, Nataly; Vinas, Adolfo F.

2016-01-01

Near the Sun (< 10Rs) the acceleration, heating, and propagation of the solar wind are likely affected by the background inhomogeneities of the magnetized plasma. The heating and the acceleration of the solar wind ions by turbulent wave spectrum in inhomogeneous plasma is studied using a 2.5D hybrid model. The hybrid model describes the kinetics of the ions, while the electrons are modeled as massless neutralizing fluid in an expanding box approach. Turbulent magnetic fluctuations dominated by power-law frequency spectra, which are evident from in-situ as well as remote sensing measurements, are used in our models. The effects of background density inhomogeneity across the magnetic field on the resonant ion heating are studied. The effect of super- Alfvenic ion drift on the ion heating is investigated. It is found that the turbulent wave spectrum of initially parallel propagating waves cascades to oblique modes, and leads to enhanced resonant ion heating due to the inhomogeneity. The acceleration of the solar wind ions is achieved by the parametric instability of large amplitude waves in the spectrum, and is also affected by the inhomogeneity. The results of the study provide the ion temperature anisotropy and drift velocity temporal evolution due to relaxation of the instability. The non-Maxwellian velocity distribution functions (VDFs) of the ions are modeled in the inhomogeneous solar wind plasma in the acceleration region close to the Sun.

Thermotolerance and Photosystem II Behaviour in Co-occuring Temperate Tree Species Exposed to Short-term Extreme Heat Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guha, A.; Warren, J.; Cummings, C.; Han, J.

2017-12-01

Thermal stress can induce irreversible photodamage with longer consequences for plant metabolism. We focused on photosystem II (PSII) behaviour to understand how this complex responds in different co-occuring temperate trees exposed to short-term extreme heat waves. The study was designed for understanding complex heat tolerance mechanisms in trees. During manipulative heat-wave experiments, we monitored instantaneous PSII performance and tracked both transient and chronic PSII damages using chlorophyll a fluorescence characteristics. Fluorescence signals were used to simulate PSII bioenergetic processes. The light (Fv'/Fm') and dark-adapted (Fv/Fm) fluorescence traits including fast induction kinetics (OJIP), electron transport rate, PSII operating efficiency and quenching capacities were significantly affected by the heat treatments. Loss in PSII efficiency was more apparent in species like black cottonwood, yellow poplar, walnuts and conifers, whereas oaks maintained relatively better PSII functions. The post-heat recovery of Fv/Fm varied across the studied species showing differential carry over effects. PSII down-regulation was one of dominant factors for the loss in operational photosynthesis during extreme heat wave events. Both light and dark-adapted fluorescence characteristics showed loss in photo-regulatory functions and photodamage. Some resilient species showed rapid recovery from transient PSII damage, whereas fingerprints of chronic PSII damage were observed in susceptibles. Thresholds for Fv/Fm and non-photochemical quenching were identified for the studied species. PSII malfunctioning was largely associated with the observed photosynthetic down-regulation during heat wave treatments, however, its physiological recovery should be a key factor to determine species resilience to short-term extreme heat wave events.

Self-Consistent Model of Magnetospheric Ring Current and Propagating Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves. 2; Waves, Precipitating Ring Current Ions, and Thermal Electron Heating

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khazanov, G. V.; Gamayunov, K. V.; Gallagher, D. L.

2006-01-01

This paper is dedicated to further presentations and discussions of the results from our new global self-consistent theoretical model of interacting ring current ions and electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves [Khazanov et al., 2006; here referred to as Paper 1]. In order to adequately take into account the wave propagation and refraction in a multi-ion plasmasphere, we explicitly include the ray tracing equations in our previous self-consistent model and use the general form of the wave kinetic equation [for details see Paper 1]. To demonstrate the effects of the EMIC wave propagation and refraction on the RC proton precipitations and heating of the thermal plasmaspheric electrons we simulate the May 1998 storm. The main findings of our simulation can be summarized as follows. Firstly, the wave induced precipitations have a quite fine structure, and are highly organized by location of the plasmapause gradient. The strongest fluxes of about 4 (raised dot) 10(exp 6) [(cm (raised dot) s (raised dot) sr)(sup -l)] are observed during the main and early recovery phases of the storm. The very interesting and probably more important finding is that in a number of cases the most intense precipitating fluxes are not simply connected to the most intense EMIC waves. The character of the EMIC wave power spectral density distribution over the equatorial wave normal angle is an extremely crucial for the effectiveness of the RC ion scattering. Secondly, comparison of the global proton precipitating patterns with the results from other ring current model [Kozyra et al., 1997] reveals that although we observe a qualitative agreement between localizations of the wave induced fluxes in the models, there is no quantitative agreement between the magnitudes of these fluxes. These differences are mainly due to a qualitative difference between the characters of the EMIC wave power spectral density distributions over the equatorial wave normal angle. Finally, the two energy sources to the

Thermal waves or beam heating in the 1980, November 5 flare

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Dean F.

1986-01-01

Observations of the temporal evolution of loop BC in soft X rays in the November 5, 1980 flare are reviewed. Calculations are performed to model this evolution. The most consistent interpretation involving a minimum account of energy is the following. Thermal heating near B gives rise to a conduction front which moves out along the loop uninhibited for about 27 s. Beam heating near C gives rise to a second conduction front which moves in the opposite direction and prevents any energy reaching C by thermal conduction from B. Thus both thermal waves and beam heating are required to explain the observed evolution.

Another self-similar blast wave: Early time asymptote with shock heated electrons and high thermal conductivity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cox, D. P.; Edgar, R. J.

1982-01-01

Accurate approximations are presented for the self-similar structures of nonradiating blast waves with adiabatic ions, isothermal electrons, and equation ion and electron temperatures at the shock. The cases considered evolve in cavities with power law ambient densities (including the uniform density case) and have negligible external pressure. The results provide the early time asymptote for systems with shock heating of electrons and strong thermal conduction. In addition, they provide analytical results against which two fluid numerical hydrodynamic codes can be checked.

Blast-Wave Generation and Propagation in Rapidly Heated Laser-Irradiated Targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivancic, S. T.; Stillman, C. R.; Nilson, P. M.; Solodov, A. A.; Froula, D. H.

2017-10-01

Time-resolved extreme ultraviolet (XUV) spectroscopy was used to study the creation and propagation of a >100-Mbar blast wave in a target irradiated by an intense (>1018WWcm2 cm2) laser pulse. Blast waves provide a platform to generate immense pressures in the laboratory. A temporal double flash of XUV radiation was observed when viewing the rear side of the target, which is attributed to the emergence of a blast wave following rapid heating by a fast-electron beam generated from the laser pulse. The time-history of XUV emission in the photon energy range of 50 to 200 eV was recorded with an x-ray streak camera with 7-ps temporal resolution. The heating and expansion of the target was simulated with an electron transport code coupled to 1-D radiation-hydrodynamics simulations. The temporal delay between the two flashes measured in a systematic study of target thickness and composition was found to evolve in good agreement with a Sedov-Taylor blast-wave solution. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration under Award Number DE-NA0001944 and Department of Energy Office of Science Award Number DE-SC-0012317.

Heat and immunity: an experimental heat wave alters immune functions in three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus).

PubMed

Dittmar, Janine; Janssen, Hannah; Kuske, Andra; Kurtz, Joachim; Scharsack, Jörn P

2014-07-01

Global climate change is predicted to lead to increased temperatures and more extreme climatic events. This may influence host-parasite interactions, immunity and therefore the impact of infectious diseases on ecosystems. However, little is known about the effects of rising temperatures on immune defence, in particular in ectothermic animals, where the immune system is directly exposed to external temperature change. Fish are ideal models for studying the effect of temperature on immunity, because they are poikilothermic, but possess a complete vertebrate immune system with both innate and adaptive immunity. We used three-spined sticklebacks ( Gasterosteus aculeatus) originating from a stream and a pond, whereby the latter supposedly were adapted to higher temperature variation. We studied the effect of increasing and decreasing temperatures and a simulated heat wave with subsequent recovery on body condition and immune parameters. We hypothesized that the immune system might be less active at low temperatures, but will be even more suppressed at temperatures towards the upper tolerable temperature range. Contrary to our expectation, we found innate and adaptive immune activity to be highest at a temperature as low as 13 °C. Exposure to a simulated heat wave induced long-lasting immune disorders, in particular in a stickleback population that might be less adapted to temperature variation in its natural environment. The results show that the activity of the immune system of an ectothermic animal species is temperature dependent and suggest that heat waves associated with global warming may immunocompromise host species, thereby potentially facilitating the spread of infectious diseases. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Assessment of the Impact of the 2003 and 2006 Heat Waves on Cattle Mortality in France

PubMed Central

Morignat, Eric; Perrin, Jean-Baptiste; Gay, Emilie; Vinard, Jean-Luc; Calavas, Didier; Hénaux, Viviane

2014-01-01

Objectives While several studies have highlighted and quantified human mortality during the major heat waves that struck Western Europe in 2003 and 2006, the impact on farm animals has been overlooked. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of these two events on cattle mortality in France, one of the most severely impacted countries. Methods Poisson regressions were used to model the national baseline for cattle mortality between 2004 and 2005 and predict the weekly number of expected deaths in 2003 and 2006 for the whole cattle population and by subpopulation based on age and type of production. Observed and estimated values were compared to identify and quantify excess mortality. The same approach was used at a departmental scale (a French department being an administrative and territorial division) to assess the spatio-temporal evolution of the mortality pattern. Results Overall, the models estimated relative excess mortality of 24% [95% confidence interval: 22–25%] for the two-week heat wave of 2003, and 12% [11–14%] for the three-week heat wave of 2006. In 2003, most cattle subpopulations were impacted during the heat wave and some in the following weeks too. In 2006, cattle subpopulations were impacted for a limited time only, with no excess mortality at the beginning or after the heat wave. No marked differences in cattle mortality were found among the different subpopulations by age and type of production. The implications of these results for risk prevention are discussed. PMID:24667835

Analytic methods for design of wave cycles for wave rotor core engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Resler, Edwin L., Jr.; Mocsari, Jeffrey C.; Nalim, M. R.

1993-01-01

A procedure to design a preliminary wave rotor cycle for any application is presented. To complete a cycle with heat addition there are two separate but related design steps that must be followed. The 'wave' boundary conditions determine the allowable amount of heat added in any case and the ensuing wave pattern requires certain pressure discharge conditions to allow the process to be made cyclic. This procedure, when applied, gives a first estimate of the cycle performance and the necessary information for the next step in the design process, namely the application of a characteristic based or other appropriate detailed one dimensional wave calculation that locates the proper porting around the periphery of the wave rotor. Four examples of the design procedure are given to demonstrate its utility and generality. These examples also illustrate the large gains in performance that could be realized with the use of wave rotor enhanced propulsion cycles.

Future heat waves due to climate change threaten the survival of Posidonia oceanica seedlings.

PubMed

Guerrero-Meseguer, Laura; Marín, Arnaldo; Sanz-Lázaro, Carlos

2017-11-01

Extreme weather events are major drivers of ecological change, and their occurrence is likely to increase due to climate change. The transient increases in atmospheric temperatures are leading to a greater occurrence of heat waves, extreme events that can produce a substantial warming of water, especially in enclosed basins such as the Mediterranean Sea. Here, we tested the effects of current and predicted heat waves on the early stages of development of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica. Temperatures above 27 °C limited the growth of the plant by inhibiting its photosynthetic system. It suffered a reduction in leaf growth and faster leaf senescence, and in some cases mortality. This study demonstrates that the greater frequency of heat waves, along with anticipated temperature rises in coming decades, are expected to negatively affect the germination of P. oceanica seedlings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Projection of temperature and heat waves for Africa with an ensemble of CORDEX Regional Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dosio, Alessandro

2017-07-01

The most severe effects of global warning will be related to the frequency and severity of extreme events. We provide an analysis of projections of temperature and related extreme events for Africa based on a large ensemble of Regional Climate Models from the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX). Results are presented not only by means of widely used indices but also with a recently developed Heat Wave Magnitude Index-daily (HWMId), which takes into account both heat wave duration and intensity. Results show that under RCP8.5, warming of more than 3.5 °C is projected in JFM over most of the continent, whereas in JAS temperatures over large part of Northern Africa, the Sahara and the Arabian peninsula are projected to increase up to 6 °C. Large increase in in the number of warm days (Tx90p) is found over sub equatorial Africa, with values up to more than 90 % in JAS, and more than 80 % in JFM over e.g., the gulf of Guinea, Central African Republic, South Sudan and Ethiopia. Changes in Tn90p (warm nights) are usually larger, with some models projecting Tn90p reaching 95 % starting from around 2060 even under RCP4.5 over the Gulf of Guinea and the Sahel. Results also show that the total length of heat spells projected to occur normally (i.e. once every 2 years) under RCP8.5 may be longer than those occurring once every 30 years under the lower emission scenario. By employing the recently developed HWMId index, it is possible to investigate the relationship between heat wave length ad intensity; in particular it is shown that very intense heat waves such as that occurring over the Horn of Africa may have values of HWMId larger than that of longer, but relatively weak, heat waves over West Africa.

Effect of quantum correction on nonlinear thermal wave of electrons driven by laser heating

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nafari, F.; Ghoranneviss, M., E-mail: ghoranneviss@gmail.com

2016-08-15

In thermal interaction of laser pulse with a deuterium-tritium (DT) plane, the thermal waves of electrons are generated instantly. Since the thermal conductivity of electron is a nonlinear function of temperature, a nonlinear heat conduction equation is used to investigate the propagation of waves in solid DT. This paper presents a self-similar analytic solution for the nonlinear heat conduction equation in a planar geometry. The thickness of the target material is finite in numerical computation, and it is assumed that the laser energy is deposited at a finite initial thickness at the initial time which results in a finite temperaturemore » for electrons at initial time. Since the required temperature range for solid DT ignition is higher than the critical temperature which equals 35.9 eV, the effects of quantum correction in thermal conductivity should be considered. This letter investigates the effects of quantum correction on characteristic features of nonlinear thermal wave, including temperature, penetration depth, velocity, heat flux, and heating and cooling domains. Although this effect increases electron temperature and thermal flux, penetration depth and propagation velocity are smaller. This effect is also applied to re-evaluate the side-on laser ignition of uncompressed DT.« less

Changes in cause-specific mortality during heat waves in central Spain, 1975-2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miron, Isidro Juan; Linares, Cristina; Montero, Juan Carlos; Criado-Alvarez, Juan Jose; Díaz, Julio

2015-09-01

The relationship between heat waves and mortality has been widely described, but there are few studies using long daily data on specific-cause mortality. This study is undertaken in central Spain and analysing natural causes, circulatory and respiratory causes of mortality from 1975 to 2008. Time-series analysis was performed using ARIMA models, including data on specific-cause mortality and maximum and mean daily temperature and mean daily air pressure. The length of heat waves and their chronological number were analysed. Data were stratified in three decadal stages: 1975-1985, 1986-1996 and 1997-2008. Heat-related mortality was triggered by a threshold temperature of 37 °C. For each degree that the daily maximum temperature exceeded 37 °C, the percentage increase in mortality due to circulatory causes was 19.3 % (17.3-21.3) in 1975-1985, 30.3 % (28.3-32.3) in 1986-1996 and 7.3 % (6.2-8.4) in 1997-2008. The increase in respiratory cause ranged from 12.4 % (7.8-17.0) in the first period, to 16.3 % (14.1-18.4) in the second and 13.7 % (11.5-15.9) in the last. Each day of heat-wave duration explained 5.3 % (2.6-8.0) increase in respiratory mortality in the first period and 2.3 % (1.6-3.0) in the last. Decadal scale differences exist for specific-causes mortality induced by extreme heat. The impact on heat-related mortality by natural and circulatory causes increases between the first and the second period and falls significantly in the last. For respiratory causes, the increase is no reduced in the last period. These results are of particular importance for the estimation of future impacts of climate change on health.

The development of a performance-enhancing additive for vapor-compression heat pumps

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grzyll, L.R.; Scaringe, R.P.; Gottschlich, J.M.

1997-12-31

This paper describes the testing results of a vapor-compression heat pump operating with HFC-134a refrigerant and a performance-enhancing additive. Preliminary bench-top testing of this additive, when added to polyolester (POE) lubricant and HFC-134a refrigerant, showed surprising enhancements to system COP. To further investigate this finding, the authors designed and fabricated a vapor-compression heat pump test stand for the 3--5 ton range. The authors investigated the effect of different concentrations of this additive on various system performance parameters such as cooling capacity, compressor power requirement, pressure ratio, compressor pressure difference, compressor isentropic efficiency, refrigerant flow rate, and heat exchanger performance. Themore » authors investigated various heat source and heat sink conditions to simulate air-conditioning and heat pump operating conditions. To investigate the effect of this additive on compressor lubrication and life, the authors performed compressor life tests (with scroll and reciprocating compressors), and had lubrication wear tests performed with various concentrations of the additive in the POE lubricant.« less

The role of electric field in microfluidic heating induced by standing surface acoustic waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Tengfei; Wang, Chaohui; Hu, Qiao; Wei, Shoupeng

2018-06-01

The heating mechanism of standing surface acoustic waves (SSAWs) on a LiNbO3 substrate has been experimentally studied. Three devices with different substrates were used to heat the drops with NaCl concentrations ranging from 0 to 1 g/l, respectively. The device with a glass substrate was used to shield acoustic waves. The device with an Au layer between the LiNbO3 substrate and the droplet was used to shield the alternating current field. The results show that the thermal effect induced by SSAWs on the LiNbO3 substrate is composed of the acoustothermal effect due to SSAWs and the electric field thermal effect (Joule heat) due to the alternating current field. The electric field thermal effect which is ignored in SSAW devices previously plays an important role in the thermal effect induced by SSAWs. These results provide a meaningful insight into the mechanism of SSAW-based heating, which is of great help to guide the effective use of the SSAW-based heating technique for various applications.

Urban enhancement of the heat waves in Madrid and its metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, F.; Rasilla, D.

2009-04-01

The urban heat island (UHI) is a worldwide phenomenon that causes an increase of the temperatures in the centre of the cities. The process of urbanization has developed an intense urban heat island in Madrid, with temperature differences up to 10°C higher than the surrounding rural environment. Such differences may potentially increase the magnitude and duration of heat waves within cities, exacerbating their most negative effects over human health, particularly by night, as it deprives urban residents of the cool relief found in rural areas. In this contribution we study the long term trends on warm extreme temperature episodes in the Madrid metropolitan area, and their impact at local scale, on the onw city of Madrid. For the first task, we have compared maximum and minimum temperatures from rural (Barajas and Torrejón) and urban (El Retiro, Cuatro Vientos, Getafe) stations from 1961-2008; for the second one a local network of automated meteorological stations inside the city provided hourly data from the 2002-2004 years. Finally, the 2003 heat wave is used as an example of the spatial and temporal patterns of temperature and ozone concentrations during those extreme episodes. Our results show a regional increase in the frequency and duration of those extreme warm episodes since the end of the 80´s, although their absolute magnitude remains unchanged. The urban environment exacerbates the heat load due to the persistence of the high temperatures during the night-time hours, as it is shown by the above average number of tropical nights (> 20°C) inside the urban spaces, simultaneous to the increasing trend of maximum temperatures. Besides, the diversity of urban morphologies introduces a spatial variability on the strength of this nocturnal heat load, aggravating it in the densely urbanized areas and mitigating it in the vicinities of the green areas. The regional meteorological conditions associated to these warm episodes, characterized also by low wind speed

Neonates in Ahmedabad, India, during the 2010 heat wave: a climate change adaptation study.

PubMed

Kakkad, Khyati; Barzaga, Michelle L; Wallenstein, Sylvan; Azhar, Gulrez Shah; Sheffield, Perry E

2014-01-01

Health effects from climate change are an international concern with urban areas at particular risk due to urban heat island effects. The burden of disease on vulnerable populations in non-climate-controlled settings has not been well studied. This study compared neonatal morbidity in a non-air-conditioned hospital during the 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad to morbidity in the prior and subsequent years. The outcome of interest was neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admissions for heat. During the months of April, May, and June of 2010, 24 NICU admissions were for heat versus 8 and 4 in 2009 and 2011, respectively. Both the effect of moving the maternity ward and the effect of high temperatures were statistically significant, controlling for each other. Above 42 degrees Celsius, each daily maximum temperature increase of a degree was associated with 43% increase in heat-related admissions (95% CI 9.2-88%). Lower floor location of the maternity ward within hospital which occurred after the 2010 heat wave showed a protective effect. These findings demonstrate the importance of simple surveillance measures in motivating a hospital policy change for climate change adaptation-here relocating one ward-and the potential increasing health burden of heat in non-climate-controlled institutions on vulnerable populations.

Neonates in Ahmedabad, India, during the 2010 Heat Wave: A Climate Change Adaptation Study

PubMed Central

Kakkad, Khyati; Barzaga, Michelle L.; Wallenstein, Sylvan; Sheffield, Perry E.

2014-01-01

Health effects from climate change are an international concern with urban areas at particular risk due to urban heat island effects. The burden of disease on vulnerable populations in non-climate-controlled settings has not been well studied. This study compared neonatal morbidity in a non-air-conditioned hospital during the 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad to morbidity in the prior and subsequent years. The outcome of interest was neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admissions for heat. During the months of April, May, and June of 2010, 24 NICU admissions were for heat versus 8 and 4 in 2009 and 2011, respectively. Both the effect of moving the maternity ward and the effect of high temperatures were statistically significant, controlling for each other. Above 42 degrees Celsius, each daily maximum temperature increase of a degree was associated with 43% increase in heat-related admissions (95% CI 9.2–88%). Lower floor location of the maternity ward within hospital which occurred after the 2010 heat wave showed a protective effect. These findings demonstrate the importance of simple surveillance measures in motivating a hospital policy change for climate change adaptation—here relocating one ward—and the potential increasing health burden of heat in non-climate-controlled institutions on vulnerable populations. PMID:24734050

Heat wave phenomenon in southern Slovakia: long-term changes and variability of daily maximum air temperature in Hurbanovo within the 1901-2009 period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pecho, J.; Výberči, D.; Jarošová, M.; Å¥Astný, P. Å.

2010-09-01

Analysis of long-term changes and temporal variability of heat waves incidence in the region of southern Slovakia within the 1901-2009 periods is a goal of the presented contribution. It is expected that climate change in terms of global warming would amplify temporal frequency and spatial extension of extreme heat wave incidence in region of central Europe in the next few decades. The frequency of occurrence and amplitude of heat waves may be impacted by changes in the temperature regime. Heat waves can cause severe thermal environmental stress leading to higher hospital admission rates, health complications, and increased mortality. These effects arise because of one or more meteorology-related factors such as higher effective temperatures, sunshine, more consecutive hot days and nights, stagnation, increased humidity, increased pollutant emissions, and accelerated photochemical smog and particulate formation. Heat waves bring about higher temperatures, increased solar heating of buildings, inhibited ventilation, and a larger number of consecutive warm days and nights. All of these effects increase the thermal loads on buildings, reduce their ability to cool down, and increase indoor temperatures. The paper is focused to analysis of long-term and inter-decadal temporal variability of heat waves occurrence at meteorological station Hurbanovo (time-series of daily maximum air temperature available from at least 1901). We can characterize the heat waves by its magnitude and duration, hence both of these characteristics need to be investigated together using sophisticated statistical methods developed particularly for the analysis of extreme hydrological events. We investigated particular heat wave periods either from the severity point of view using HWI index. In the paper we also present the results of statistical analysis of daily maximum air temperature within 1901-2009 period. Apart from these investigation efforts we also focused on synoptic causes of heat wave

Numerical Modeling of Electroacoustic Logging Including Joule Heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plyushchenkov, Boris D.; Nikitin, Anatoly A.; Turchaninov, Victor I.

It is well known that electromagnetic field excites acoustic wave in a porous elastic medium saturated with fluid electrolyte due to electrokinetic conversion effect. Pride's equations describing this process are written in isothermal approximation. Update of these equations, which allows to take influence of Joule heating on acoustic waves propagation into account, is proposed here. This update includes terms describing the initiation of additional acoustic waves excited by thermoelastic stresses and the heat conduction equation with right side defined by Joule heating. Results of numerical modeling of several problems of propagation of acoustic waves excited by an electric field source with and without consideration of Joule heating effect in their statements are presented. From these results, it follows that influence of Joule heating should be taken into account at the numerical simulation of electroacoustic logging and at the interpretation of its log data.

Edge loss of high-harmonic fast-wave heating power in NSTX: a cylindrical model

DOE PAGES

Perkins, R. J.; Hosea, J. C.; Bertelli, N.; ...

2017-09-04

Efficient high-harmonic fast-wave (HHFW) heating in the National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade (NSTX-U) would facilitate experiments in turbulence, transport, fast-ion studies, and more. However, previous HHFW operation in NSTX exhibited a large loss of fast-wave power to the divertor along the scrape-off layer field lines for edge densities above the fast-wave cutoff. It was postulated that the wave amplitude is enhanced in the scrapeoff layer due to cavity-like modes, and that these enhanced fields drive sheath losses through RF rectification. As part of ongoing work to confirm this hypothesis, we have developed a cylindrical cold-plasma model to identify and understandmore » scenarios where a substantial fraction of wave power is confined to the plasma periphery. We previously identified a peculiar class of modes, named annulus resonances, that conduct approximately half of their wave power in the periphery and can also account for a significant fraction of the total wave power. Here, we study the influence of annulus resonances on wave field reconstructions and find instances where annulus-resonant modes dominate the spectrum and trap over half of the total wave power at the edge. The work is part of an ongoing effort to determine the mechanism underlying these scrape-off layer losses in NSTX, identify optimal conditions for operation in NSTX-U, and predict whether similar losses occur for the ion-cyclotron minority heating scheme for both current experiments and future devices such as ITER.« less

Edge loss of high-harmonic fast-wave heating power in NSTX: a cylindrical model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perkins, R. J.; Hosea, J. C.; Bertelli, N.

Efficient high-harmonic fast-wave (HHFW) heating in the National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade (NSTX-U) would facilitate experiments in turbulence, transport, fast-ion studies, and more. However, previous HHFW operation in NSTX exhibited a large loss of fast-wave power to the divertor along the scrape-off layer field lines for edge densities above the fast-wave cutoff. It was postulated that the wave amplitude is enhanced in the scrapeoff layer due to cavity-like modes, and that these enhanced fields drive sheath losses through RF rectification. As part of ongoing work to confirm this hypothesis, we have developed a cylindrical cold-plasma model to identify and understandmore » scenarios where a substantial fraction of wave power is confined to the plasma periphery. We previously identified a peculiar class of modes, named annulus resonances, that conduct approximately half of their wave power in the periphery and can also account for a significant fraction of the total wave power. Here, we study the influence of annulus resonances on wave field reconstructions and find instances where annulus-resonant modes dominate the spectrum and trap over half of the total wave power at the edge. The work is part of an ongoing effort to determine the mechanism underlying these scrape-off layer losses in NSTX, identify optimal conditions for operation in NSTX-U, and predict whether similar losses occur for the ion-cyclotron minority heating scheme for both current experiments and future devices such as ITER.« less

Solid-State Additive Manufacturing for Heat Exchangers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norfolk, Mark; Johnson, Hilary

2015-03-01

Energy densities in devices are increasing across many industries including power generation, high power electronics, manufacturing, and automotive. Increasingly, there is a need for very high efficiency thermal management devices that can pull heat out of a small area at higher and higher rates. Metal additive manufacturing (AM) technologies have the promise of creating parts with complex internal geometries required for integral thermal management. However, this goal has not been met due to constraints in fusion-based metal 3D printers. This work presents a new strategy for metal AM of heat exchangers using an ultrasonic sheet lamination approach.

Self-consistent Model of Magnetospheric Ring Current and Propagating Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves. 2. Wave Induced Ring Current Precipitation and Thermal Electron Heating

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khazanov, G. V.; Gamayunov, K. V.; Gallagher, D. L.; Kozyra, J. U.; Liemohn, M. W.

2007-01-01

This paper continues presentation and discussion of the results from our new global self-consistent theoretical model of interacting ring current ions and propagating electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves [Khazanov et al., 2006]. To study the effects of electromagnetic ion cyclotron wave propagation and refraction on the wave induced ring current precipitation and heating of the thermal plasmaspheric electrons, we simulate the May 1998 storm. The main findings after a simulation can be summarized as follows. Firstly, the wave induced ring current precipitation exhibits quite a lot of fine structure, and is highly organized by location of the plasmapause gradient. The strongest fluxes of about 4 x 10(exp 6) (cm(raised dot) s(raised dot) sr(raised dot) (sup -1)) are observed during the maill and early recovery phases of the storm. The very interesting and probably more important finding is that in a number of cases the most intense precipitating fluxes are not connected to the most intense waves in simple manner. The characteristics of the wave power spectral density distribution over the wave normal angle are extremely crucial for the effectiveness of the ring current ion scattering. Secondly, comparison of the global proton precipitating patterns with the results from RAM [Kozyra et al., 1997a] reveals that although we observe a qualitative agreement between the localizations of the wave induced precipitations in the models, there is no quantitative agreement between the magnitudes of the fluxes. The quantitative differences are mainly due to a qualitative difference between the characteristics of the wave power spectral density distributions over the wave normal angle in RAM and in our model. Thirdly, the heat fluxes to plasmaspheric electrons caused by Landau resonate energy absorption from electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves are observed in the postnoon-premidnight MLT sector, and can reach the magnitude of 10(exp 11) eV/(cm(sup 2)(raised dot)s). The Coulomb

Quantifying impacts of heat waves on power grid operation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ke, Xinda; Wu, Di; Rice, Jennie S.

Climate change is projected to cause an increase in the severity and frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves and droughts. Such changes present planning and operating challenges and risks to many economic sectors. In the electricity sector, statistics of extreme events in the past have been used to help plan for future peak loads, determine associated infrastructure requirements, and evaluate operational risks, but industry-standard planning tools have yet to be coupled with or informed by temperature models to explore the impacts of the "new normal" on planning studies. For example, high ambient temperatures during heat waves reducemore » the output capacity and efficiency of gas fired combustion turbines just when they are needed most to meet peak demands. This paper describes the development and application of a production cost and unit commitment model coupled to high resolution, hourly temperature data and a temperature dependent load model. The coupled system has the ability to represent the impacts of hourly temperatures on load conditions and available capacity and efficiency of combustion turbines, and therefore capture the potential impacts on system reliability and production cost. Ongoing work expands this capability to address the impacts of water availability and temperature on power grid operation.« less

Role of lower hybrid waves in ion heating at dipolarization fronts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greco, A.; Artemyev, A.; Zimbardo, G.; Angelopoulos, V.; Runov, A.

2017-05-01

One of the important sources of hot ions in the magnetotail is the bursty bulk flows propagating away from the reconnection region and heating the ambient plasma. Charged particles interact with nonlinear magnetic field pulses (dipolarization fronts, DFs) embedded into these flows. The convection electric fields associated with DF propagation are known to reflect and accelerate ambient ions. Moreover, a wide range of waves is observed within/near these fronts, the electric field fluctuations being dominated by the lower hybrid drift (LHD) instability. Here we investigate the potential role of these waves in the further acceleration of ambient ions. We use a LHD wave emission profile superimposed on the leading edge of a two-dimensional model profile of a DF and a test particle approach. We show that LHD waves with realistic amplitudes can significantly increase the upper limit of energies gained by ions. Wave-particle interaction near the front is more effective in producing superthermal ions than in increasing the flux of thermal ions. Comparison of test particle simulations and Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms observations show that ion acceleration by LHD waves is more important for slower DFs.

PROTON HEATING BY PICK-UP ION DRIVEN CYCLOTRON WAVES IN THE OUTER HELIOSPHERE: HYBRID EXPANDING BOX SIMULATIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hellinger, Petr; Trávníček, Pavel M., E-mail: petr.hellinger@asu.cas.cz

Using a one-dimensional hybrid expanding box model, we investigate properties of the solar wind in the outer heliosphere. We assume a proton–electron plasma with a strictly transverse ambient magnetic field and, aside from the expansion, we take into account the influence of a continuous injection of cold pick-up protons through the charge-exchange process between the solar wind protons and hydrogen of interstellar origin. The injected cold pick-up protons form a ring distribution function, which rapidly becomes unstable, and generate Alfvén cyclotron waves. The Alfvén cyclotron waves scatter pick-up protons to a spherical shell distribution function that thickens over that timemore » owing to the expansion-driven cooling. The Alfvén cyclotron waves heat solar wind protons in the perpendicular direction (with respect to the ambient magnetic field) through cyclotron resonance. At later times, the Alfvén cyclotron waves become parametrically unstable and the generated ion-acoustic waves heat protons in the parallel direction through Landau resonance. The resulting heating of the solar wind protons is efficient on the expansion timescale.« less

Trend analysis of regional heat wave warning using RegCM simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Bartha, E. B.; Torek, O.; Torma, Cs.

2010-09-01

Heat wave events are important temperature-related climatological extremes due to their impacts on human health. In the future, they are very likely to occur more frequently and more intensely not only in the Carpathian Basin, but in most regions of the world because of global warming. In order to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies on local scale, it is essential to analyze the projected changes related to heat waves. In Hungary, three categories of heat wave warning are applied. They are associated to the daily mean temperature values. (i) Warning category 1 is issued when the daily mean temperature is larger than 25 °C. (ii) Warning category 2 is issued when the daily mean temperature for at least 3 consecutive days is larger than 25 °C. (iii) Warning category 3 is issued when the daily mean temperature for at least 3 consecutive days is larger than 27 °C. In this poster, frequency of these conditions are analyzed using regional climate model experiments of model RegCM with 10-km horizontal resolution adapted at the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University in the frame of the CECILIA EU-project. The model RegCM is a 3-dimensional, sigma-coordinate, primitive equation model, and it was originally developed by Giorgi et al. Currently, it is available from the ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics). The initial and lateral boundary conditions of the fine-resolution experiments have been provided by the global climate model ECHAM for the A1B emission scenario for three different time slices (1961-1990, 2021-2050, and 2071-2100).

Attributing Human Mortality During Extreme Heat Waves to Anthropogenic Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, D.; Heaviside, C.; Vardoulakis, S.; Huntingford, C.; Masato, G.; Guillod, B. P.; Frumhoff, P. C.; Bowery, A.; Allen, M. R.

2015-12-01

Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century (Costello et al, 2009; Watts et al, 2015). Perhaps one of the clearest examples of this is the summer heat wave of 2003, which saw up to seventy thousand excess deaths across Europe (Robine et al, 2007). The extreme temperatures are now thought to be significantly enhanced due to anthropogenic climate change (Stott et al, 2004; Christidis et al, 2015). Here, we consider not only the Europe-wide temperature response of the heat wave, but the localised response using a high-resolution regional model simulating 2003 climate conditions thousands of times. For the first time, by employing end-to-end attribution, we attribute changes in mortality to the increased radiative forcing from climate change, with a specific focus on London and Paris. We show that in both cities, a sizable proportion of the excess mortality can be attributed to human emissions. With European heat waves projected to increase into the future, these results provide a worrying reality for what may lie ahead. Christidis, Nikolaos, Gareth S. Jones, and Peter A. Stott. "Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave." Nature Climate Change (2014). Costello, Anthony, et al. "Managing the health effects of climate change: lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission." The Lancet 373.9676 (2009): 1693-1733. Stott, Peter A., Dáithí A. Stone, and Myles R. Allen. "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003." Nature 432.7017 (2004): 610-614 Watts, N., et al. "Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health." Lancet. 2015.

Comparison between off-resonance and electron Bernstein waves heating regime in a microwave discharge ion source

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Castro, G.; Di Giugno, R.; Miracoli, R.

2012-02-15

A microwave discharge ion source (MDIS) operating at the Laboratori Nazionali del Sud of INFN, Catania has been used to compare the traditional electron cyclotron resonance (ECR) heating with an innovative mechanisms of plasma ignition based on the electrostatic Bernstein waves (EBW). EBW are obtained via the inner plasma electromagnetic-to-electrostatic wave conversion and they are absorbed by the plasma at cyclotron resonance harmonics. The heating of plasma by means of EBW at particular frequencies enabled us to reach densities much larger than the cutoff ones. Evidences of EBW generation and absorption together with X-ray emissions due to high energy electronsmore » will be shown. A characterization of the discharge heating process in MDISs as a generalization of the ECR heating mechanism by means of ray tracing will be shown in order to highlight the fundamental physical differences between ECR and EBW heating.« less

Simulations of the Mg II K and Ca II 8542 Lines From an Alfvén Wave-Heated Flare Chromosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerr, Graham S.; Fletcher, Lyndsay; Russell, Alexander J. B.; Allred, Joel C.

2016-01-01

We use radiation hydrodynamic simulations to examine two models of solar flare chromospheric heating: Alfven wave dissipation and electron beam collisional losses. Both mechanisms are capable of strong chromospheric heating, and we show that the distinctive atmospheric evolution in the mid-to-upper chromosphere results in Mg II k-line emission that should be observably different between wave-heated and beam-heated simulations. We also present Ca II 8542 A profiles that are formed slightly deeper in the chromosphere. The Mg II k-line profiles from our wave-heated simulation are quite different from those from a beam-heated model and are more consistent with Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph observations. The predicted differences between the Ca II 8542 A in the two models are small. We conclude that careful observational and theoretical study of lines formed in the mid-to-upper chromosphere holds genuine promise for distinguishing between competing models for chromospheric heating inflares.

Evaporation and Accompanying Isotopic Fractionation of Sulfur from FE-S Melt During Shock Wave Heating

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tachibana, S.; Huss, G. R.; Miura, H.; Nakamoto, T.

2004-01-01

Chondrules probably formed by melting and subsequent cooling of solid precursors. Evaporation during chondrule melting may have resulted in depletion of volatile elements in chondrules. It is known that kinetic evaporation, especially evaporation from a melt, often leads to enrichment of heavy isotopes in an evaporation residue. However, no evidence for a large degree of heavy-isotope enrichment has been reported in chondrules for K, Mg, Si, and Fe (as FeO). The lack of isotopic fractionation has also been found for sulfur in troilites (FeS) within Bishunpur (LL3.1) and Semarkona (LL3.0) chondrules by an ion microprobe study. The largest fractionation, found in only one grain, was 2.7 +/- 1.4 %/amu, while all other troilite grains showed isotopic fractionations of <1 %/amu. The suppressed isotopic fractionation has been interpreted as results of (i) rapid heating of precursors at temperatures below the silicate solidus and (ii) diffusion-controlled evaporation through a surrounding silicate melt at temperatures above the silicate solidus. The kinetic evaporation model suggests that a rapid heating rate of >10(exp 4)-10(exp 6) K/h for a temperature range of 1000-1300 C is required to explain observed isotopic fractionations. Such a rapid heating rate seems to be difficult to be achieved in the X-wind model, but can be achieved in shock wave heating models. In this study, we have applied the sulfur evaporation model to the shock wave heating conditions of to evaluate evaporation of sulfur and accompanying isotopic fractionation during shock wave heating at temperatures below the silicate solidus.

40 CFR 60.4176 - Additional requirements to provide heat input data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 6 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Additional requirements to provide heat... Compliance Times for Coal-Fired Electric Steam Generating Units Monitoring and Reporting § 60.4176 Additional requirements to provide heat input data. The owner or operator of a Hg Budget unit that monitors and reports Hg...

Pressure waves in liquid mercury target from pulsed heat loads and the possible way controlling their effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ni, L.; Skala, K.

1996-06-01

In ESS project liquid metals are selected as the main target for the pulsed spallation neutron source. Since the very high instantaneous energy is deposited on the heavy molten target in a very short period time, pressure waves are generated. They travel through the liquid and cause high stress in the container. Also, additional stress should be considered in the wall which is the result of direct heating of the target window. These dynamic processes were simulated with computational codes with the static response being analized first. The total resulting dynamic wall stress has been found to have exceeded themore » design stress for the selected container material. Adding a small amount of gas bubbles in the liquid could be a possible way to reduce the pressure waves.« less

Modelling storm development and the impact when introducing waves, sea spray and heat fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Lichuan; Rutgersson, Anna; Sahlée, Erik

2015-04-01

In high wind speed conditions, sea spray generated due to intensity breaking waves have big influence on the wind stress and heat fluxes. Measurements show that drag coefficient will decrease in high wind speed. Sea spray generation function (SSGF), an important term of wind stress parameterization in high wind speed, usually treated as a function of wind speed/friction velocity. In this study, we introduce a wave state depended SSGG and wave age depended Charnock number into a high wind speed wind stress parameterization (Kudryavtsev et al., 2011; 2012). The proposed wind stress parameterization and sea spray heat fluxes parameterization from Andreas et al., (2014) were applied to an atmosphere-wave coupled model to test on four storm cases. Compared with measurements from the FINO1 platform in the North Sea, the new wind stress parameterization can reduce the forecast errors of wind in high wind speed range, but not in low wind speed. Only sea spray impacted on wind stress, it will intensify the storms (minimum sea level pressure and maximum wind speed) and lower the air temperature (increase the errors). Only the sea spray impacted on the heat fluxes, it can improve the model performance on storm tracks and the air temperature, but not change much in the storm intensity. If both of sea spray impacted on the wind stress and heat fluxes are taken into account, it has the best performance in all the experiment for minimum sea level pressure and maximum wind speed and air temperature. Andreas, E. L., Mahrt, L., and Vickers, D. (2014). An improved bulk air-sea surface flux algorithm, including spray-mediated transfer. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. Kudryavtsev, V. and Makin, V. (2011). Impact of ocean spray on the dynamics of the marine atmospheric boundary layer. Boundary-layer meteorology, 140(3):383-410. Kudryavtsev, V., Makin, V., and S, Z. (2012). On the sea-surface drag and heat/mass transfer at strong winds. Technical report, Royal

High-harmonic fast magnetosonic wave coupling, propagation, and heating in a spherical torus plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menard, J.; Majeski, R.; Kaita, R.; Ono, M.; Munsat, T.; Stutman, D.; Finkenthal, M.

1999-05-01

A novel rotatable two-strap antenna has been installed in the current drive experiment upgrade (CDX-U) [T. Jones, Ph.D. thesis, Princeton University (1995)] in order to investigate high-harmonic fast wave coupling, propagation, and electron heating as a function of strap angle and strap phasing in a spherical torus plasma. Radio-frequency-driven sheath effects are found to fit antenna loading trends at very low power and become negligible above a few kilowatts. At sufficiently high power, the measured coupling efficiency as a function of strap angle is found to agree favorably with cold plasma wave theory. Far-forward microwave scattering from wave-induced density fluctuations in the plasma core tracks the predicted fast wave loading as the antenna is rotated. Signs of electron heating during rf power injection have been observed in CDX-U with central Thomson scattering, impurity ion spectroscopy, and Langmuir probes. While these initial results appear promising, damping of the fast wave on thermal ions at high ion-cyclotron-harmonic number may compete with electron damping at sufficiently high ion β—possibly resulting in a significantly reduced current drive efficiency and production of a fast ion population. Preliminary results from ray-tracing calculations which include these ion damping effects are presented.

Effect of heat waves on VOC emissions from vegetation and urban air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Churkina, G.; Kuik, F.; Lauer, A.; Bonn, B.; Butler, T. M.

2015-12-01

Programs to plant millions of trees in cities around the world aim at the reduction of summer temperatures, increase carbon storage, storm water control, provision of space for recreation, as well as poverty alleviation. Although these multiple benefits speak positively for urban greening programs, the programs do not take into account how close human and natural systems are coupled in urban areas. Elevated temperatures together with anthropogenic emissions of air and water pollutants distinguish the urban system. Urban and sub-urban vegetation responds to ambient changes and reacts with pollutants. Neglecting this coupling may lead to unforeseen drawbacks of urban greening programs. The potential for emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) from vegetation combined with anthropogenic emissions to produce ozone has long been recognized. This potential increases under rising temperatures. Here we investigate how heat waves affect emissions of VOC from urban vegetation and corresponding ground-level ozone. In this study we use Weather Research and Forecasting Model with coupled atmospheric chemistry (WRF-CHEM) to quantify these feedbacks in Berlin, Germany during the 2006 heat wave. VOC emissions from vegetation are simulated with MEGAN 2.0 coupled with WRF-CHEM. Our preliminary results indicate that contribution of VOCs from vegetation to ozone formation may increase by more than twofold during the heat wave period. We highlight the importance of the vegetation for urban areas under changing climate and discuss associated tradeoffs.

Generation of whistler waves by continuous HF heating of the upper ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vartanyan, A.; Milikh, G. M.; Eliasson, B.; Najmi, A. C.; Parrot, M.; Papadopoulos, K.

2016-07-01

Broadband VLF waves in the frequency range 7-10 kkHz and 15-19 kHz, generated by F region CW HF ionospheric heating in the absence of electrojet currents, were detected by the DEMETER satellite overflying the High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) transmitter during HAARP/BRIOCHE campaigns. The VLF waves are in a frequency range corresponding to the F region lower lybrid (LH) frequency and its harmonic. This paper aims to show that the VLF observations are whistler waves generated by mode conversion of LH waves that were parametrically excited by HF-pump-plasma interaction at the upper hybrid layer. The paper discusses the basic physics and presents a model that conjectures (1) the VLF waves observed at the LH frequency are due to the interaction of the LH waves with meter-scale field-aligned striations—generating whistler waves near the LH frequency; and (2) the VLF waves at twice the LH frequency are due to the interaction of two counterpropagating LH waves—generating whistler waves near the LH frequency harmonic. The model is supported by numerical simulations that show good agreement with the observations. The (Detection of Electromagnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions results and model discussions are complemented by the Kodiak radar, ionograms, and stimulated electromagnetic emission observations.

Overview of Microwave and Millimeter Wave Testing Activities for the Inspection of the Space Shuttle SOH and Heat Tiles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zoughi, R.

2005-01-01

Microwave and millimeter wave nondestructive testing and evaluation methods, have shown great potential for inspecting the Space Shuttle s external tank spray on foam insulation (SOFI) and acreage heat tiles. These methods are capable of producing high-resolution images of et interior of these structures. To this end, several different microwave and millimeter wave nondestructive testing methods have been investigated for this purpose. These methods have included near-field as well as focused approaches ranging in frequency from 10 GHz to beyond 100 GHz. Additionally, synthetic aperture focusing methods have also been developed in this regime for obtaining high-resolution images of the interior of these critical structures. These methods possess the potential for producing 3D images of these structures in a relatively short amount of time. This paper presents a summary of these activities in addition to providing examples of images produced using these diverse methods.