Early Changes in QRS Frequency Following Cardiac Resynchronization Predict Hemodynamic Response in Left Bundle Branch Block Patients.

PubMed

Niebauer, Mark J; Rickard, John; Tchou, Patrick J; Varma, Niraj

2016-05-01

QRS characteristics are the cornerstone of patient selection in cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) and the presence of left bundle branch block (LBBB) and baseline QRS ≥150 milliseconds portends a good outcome. We previously showed that baseline QRS frequency analysis adds predictive value to LBBB alone and have hypothesized that a change in frequency characteristics following CRT may produce additional predictive value. We examined the QRS frequency characteristics of 182 LBBB patients before and soon after CRT. Patients were assigned to responder and nonresponder groups. Responders were defined by a decrease in left ventricular end-systolic volume (LVESV) ≥15% following CRT. We analyzed the QRS in ECG leads I, AVF, and V3 before and soon after CRT using the discrete Fourier transform algorithm. The percentage of total QRS power within discrete frequency intervals before and after CRT was calculated. The reduction in lead V3 power <10 Hz was the best indicator of response. Baseline QRS width was similar between the responders and nonresponders (162.2 ± 17.2 milliseconds vs. 158 ± 22.1 milliseconds, respectively; P = 0.180). Responders exhibited a greater reduction in QRS power <10 Hz (-17.0 ± 11.9% vs. -6.6 ± 12.5%; P < 0.001) and a significant AUC (0.743; P < 0.001). A ≥8% decline in QRS power <10 Hz produced the best predictive values (PPV = 84%, NPV = 59%). Importantly, when patients with baseline QRS <150 milliseconds were compared, the AUC improved (0.892, P < 0.001). Successful CRT produces a significant reduction in QRS power below 10 Hz, particularly when baseline QRS <150 milliseconds. These results indicate that QRS frequency changes after CRT provide additional predictive value to QRS alone. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moslehi, Salim; Reddy, T. Agami; Katipamula, Srinivas

This research was undertaken to evaluate different inverse models for predicting power output of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems under different practical scenarios. In particular, we have investigated whether PV power output prediction accuracy can be improved if module/cell temperature was measured in addition to climatic variables, and also the extent to which prediction accuracy degrades if solar irradiation is not measured on the plane of array but only on a horizontal surface. We have also investigated the significance of different independent or regressor variables, such as wind velocity and incident angle modifier in predicting PV power output and cell temperature.more » The inverse regression model forms have been evaluated both in terms of their goodness-of-fit, and their accuracy and robustness in terms of their predictive performance. Given the accuracy of the measurements, expected CV-RMSE of hourly power output prediction over the year varies between 3.2% and 8.6% when only climatic data are used. Depending on what type of measured climatic and PV performance data is available, different scenarios have been identified and the corresponding appropriate modeling pathways have been proposed. The corresponding models are to be implemented on a controller platform for optimum operational planning of microgrids and integrated energy systems.« less

Measurements and predictions of flyover and static noise of an afterburning turbofan engine in an F-111 airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burcham, F. W., Jr.

1979-01-01

The noise of the TF30 afterburning turbofan engine in an F-111 airplane was determined from static (ground) and flyover tests. Exhaust temperatures and velocity profiles were measured for a range of power settings. Comparisons were made between predicted and measured jet mixing, internal, and shock noise. It was found that the noise produced at static conditions was dominated by jet mixing noise, and was adequately predicted by current methods. The noise produced during flyovers exhibited large contributions from internally generated noise in the forward arc. For flyovers with the engine at nonafterburning power, the internal noise, shock noise, and jet mixing noise were accurately predicted. During flyovers with afterburning power settings, however, additional internal noise believed to be due to the afterburning process was evident; its level was as much as 8 decibels above the nonafterburning internal noise.

Increased prognostic accuracy of TBI when a brain electrical activity biomarker is added to loss of consciousness (LOC).

PubMed

Hack, Dallas; Huff, J Stephen; Curley, Kenneth; Naunheim, Roseanne; Ghosh Dastidar, Samanwoy; Prichep, Leslie S

2017-07-01

Extremely high accuracy for predicting CT+ traumatic brain injury (TBI) using a quantitative EEG (QEEG) based multivariate classification algorithm was demonstrated in an independent validation trial, in Emergency Department (ED) patients, using an easy to use handheld device. This study compares the predictive power using that algorithm (which includes LOC and amnesia), to the predictive power of LOC alone or LOC plus traumatic amnesia. ED patients 18-85years presenting within 72h of closed head injury, with GSC 12-15, were study candidates. 680 patients with known absence or presence of LOC were enrolled (145 CT+ and 535 CT- patients). 5-10min of eyes closed EEG was acquired using the Ahead 300 handheld device, from frontal and frontotemporal regions. The same classification algorithm methodology was used for both the EEG based and the LOC based algorithms. Predictive power was evaluated using area under the ROC curve (AUC) and odds ratios. The QEEG based classification algorithm demonstrated significant improvement in predictive power compared with LOC alone, both in improved AUC (83% improvement) and odds ratio (increase from 4.65 to 16.22). Adding RGA and/or PTA to LOC was not improved over LOC alone. Rapid triage of TBI relies on strong initial predictors. Addition of an electrophysiological based marker was shown to outperform report of LOC alone or LOC plus amnesia, in determining risk of an intracranial bleed. In addition, ease of use at point-of-care, non-invasive, and rapid result using such technology suggests significant value added to standard clinical prediction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictive aging results in radiation environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillen, Kenneth T.; Clough, Roger L.

1993-06-01

We have previously derived a time-temperature-dose rate superposition methodology, which, when applicable, can be used to predict polymer degradation versus dose rate, temperature and exposure time. This methodology results in predictive capabilities at the low dose rates and long time periods appropriate, for instance, to ambient nuclear power plant environments. The methodology was successfully applied to several polymeric cable materials and then verified for two of the materials by comparisons of the model predictions with 12 year, low-dose-rate aging data on these materials from a nuclear environment. In this paper, we provide a more detailed discussion of the methodology and apply it to data obtained on a number of additional nuclear power plant cable insulation (a hypalon, a silicone rubber and two ethylene-tetrafluoroethylenes) and jacket (a hypalon) materials. We then show that the predicted, low-dose-rate results for our materials are in excellent agreement with long-term (7-9 year) low-dose-rate results recently obtained for the same material types actually aged under bnuclear power plant conditions. Based on a combination of the modelling and long-term results, we find indications of reasonably similar degradation responses among several different commercial formulations for each of the following "generic" materials: hypalon, ethylene-tetrafluoroethylene, silicone rubber and PVC. If such "generic" behavior can be further substantiated through modelling and long-term results on additional formulations, predictions of cable life for other commercial materials of the same generic types would be greatly facilitated.

Ensemble Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Artificial Neural Networks for Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Forecasting.

PubMed

Men, Zhongxian; Yee, Eugene; Lien, Fue-Sang; Yang, Zhiling; Liu, Yongqian

2014-01-01

Short-term wind speed and wind power forecasts (for a 72 h period) are obtained using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (ANN) methodology which incorporates either numerical weather prediction or high-resolution computational fluid dynamics wind field information as an exogenous input. An ensemble approach is used to combine the predictions from many candidate ANNs in order to provide improved forecasts for wind speed and power, along with the associated uncertainties in these forecasts. More specifically, the ensemble ANN is used to quantify the uncertainties arising from the network weight initialization and from the unknown structure of the ANN. All members forming the ensemble of neural networks were trained using an efficient particle swarm optimization algorithm. The results of the proposed methodology are validated using wind speed and wind power data obtained from an operational wind farm located in Northern China. The assessment demonstrates that this methodology for wind speed and power forecasting generally provides an improvement in predictive skills when compared to the practice of using an "optimal" weight vector from a single ANN while providing additional information in the form of prediction uncertainty bounds.

Ensemble Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Artificial Neural Networks for Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Forecasting

PubMed Central

Lien, Fue-Sang; Yang, Zhiling; Liu, Yongqian

2014-01-01

Short-term wind speed and wind power forecasts (for a 72 h period) are obtained using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (ANN) methodology which incorporates either numerical weather prediction or high-resolution computational fluid dynamics wind field information as an exogenous input. An ensemble approach is used to combine the predictions from many candidate ANNs in order to provide improved forecasts for wind speed and power, along with the associated uncertainties in these forecasts. More specifically, the ensemble ANN is used to quantify the uncertainties arising from the network weight initialization and from the unknown structure of the ANN. All members forming the ensemble of neural networks were trained using an efficient particle swarm optimization algorithm. The results of the proposed methodology are validated using wind speed and wind power data obtained from an operational wind farm located in Northern China. The assessment demonstrates that this methodology for wind speed and power forecasting generally provides an improvement in predictive skills when compared to the practice of using an “optimal” weight vector from a single ANN while providing additional information in the form of prediction uncertainty bounds. PMID:27382627

Assess and Predict Automatic Generation Control Performances for Thermal Power Generation Units Based on Modeling Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yan; Yang, Zijiang; Gao, Song; Liu, Jinbiao

2018-02-01

Automatic generation control(AGC) is a key technology to maintain real time power generation and load balance, and to ensure the quality of power supply. Power grids require each power generation unit to have a satisfactory AGC performance, being specified in two detailed rules. The two rules provide a set of indices to measure the AGC performance of power generation unit. However, the commonly-used method to calculate these indices is based on particular data samples from AGC responses and will lead to incorrect results in practice. This paper proposes a new method to estimate the AGC performance indices via system identification techniques. In addition, a nonlinear regression model between performance indices and load command is built in order to predict the AGC performance indices. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through industrial case studies.

A signature inferred from Drosophila mitotic genes predicts survival of breast cancer patients.

PubMed

Damasco, Christian; Lembo, Antonio; Somma, Maria Patrizia; Gatti, Maurizio; Di Cunto, Ferdinando; Provero, Paolo

2011-02-28

The classification of breast cancer patients into risk groups provides a powerful tool for the identification of patients who will benefit from aggressive systemic therapy. The analysis of microarray data has generated several gene expression signatures that improve diagnosis and allow risk assessment. There is also evidence that cell proliferation-related genes have a high predictive power within these signatures. We thus constructed a gene expression signature (the DM signature) using the human orthologues of 108 Drosophila melanogaster genes required for either the maintenance of chromosome integrity (36 genes) or mitotic division (72 genes). The DM signature has minimal overlap with the extant signatures and is highly predictive of survival in 5 large breast cancer datasets. In addition, we show that the DM signature outperforms many widely used breast cancer signatures in predictive power, and performs comparably to other proliferation-based signatures. For most genes of the DM signature, an increased expression is negatively correlated with patient survival. The genes that provide the highest contribution to the predictive power of the DM signature are those involved in cytokinesis. This finding highlights cytokinesis as an important marker in breast cancer prognosis and as a possible target for antimitotic therapies.

Studying the Power of the Integrative Weaning Index in Predicting the Success Rate of the Spontaneous Breathing Trial in Patients under Mechanical Ventilation.

PubMed

Ebrahimabadi, Sahar; Moghadam, Ahmad Bagheri; Vakili, Mohammadali; Modanloo, Mahnaz; Khoddam, Homeira

2017-08-01

The use of weaning predictive indicators can avoid early extubation and wrongful prolonged mechanical ventilation. This study aimed to determine the power of the integrative weaning index (IWI) in predicting the success rate of the spontaneous breathing trial (SBT) in patients under mechanical ventilation. In this prospective study, 105 patients undergoing mechanical ventilation for over 48 h were enrolled. Before weaning initiation, the IWI was calculated and based on the defined cutoff point (≥25), the success rate of the SBT was predicted. In case of weaning from the device, 2-h SBT was performed and the physiologic and respiratory indices were continuously studied while being intubated. If they were in the normal range besides the patient's tolerance, the test was considered as a success. The result was then compared with the IWI and further analyzed. The SBT was successful in 90 (85.7%) and unsuccessful in 15 (14.3%) cases. The difference between the true patient outcome after SBT, and the IWI prediction was 0.143 according to the Kappa agreement coefficient ( P < 0.001). Moreover, regarding the predictive power, IWI had high sensitivity (95.6%), specificity (40%), positive and negative predictive values (90.5% and 60), positive and negative likelihood ratios (1.59 and 0.11), and accuracy (86.7%). The IWI as a more objective indicator has acceptable accuracy and power for predicting the 2-h SBT result. Therefore, in addition to the reliable prediction of the final weaning outcome, it has favorable power to predict if the patient is ready to breathe spontaneously as the first step to weaning.

Studying the Power of the Integrative Weaning Index in Predicting the Success Rate of the Spontaneous Breathing Trial in Patients under Mechanical Ventilation

PubMed Central

Ebrahimabadi, Sahar; Moghadam, Ahmad Bagheri; Vakili, Mohammadali; Modanloo, Mahnaz; Khoddam, Homeira

2017-01-01

Background and Aims: The use of weaning predictive indicators can avoid early extubation and wrongful prolonged mechanical ventilation. This study aimed to determine the power of the integrative weaning index (IWI) in predicting the success rate of the spontaneous breathing trial (SBT) in patients under mechanical ventilation. Materials and Methods: In this prospective study, 105 patients undergoing mechanical ventilation for over 48 h were enrolled. Before weaning initiation, the IWI was calculated and based on the defined cutoff point (≥25), the success rate of the SBT was predicted. In case of weaning from the device, 2-h SBT was performed and the physiologic and respiratory indices were continuously studied while being intubated. If they were in the normal range besides the patient's tolerance, the test was considered as a success. The result was then compared with the IWI and further analyzed. Results: The SBT was successful in 90 (85.7%) and unsuccessful in 15 (14.3%) cases. The difference between the true patient outcome after SBT, and the IWI prediction was 0.143 according to the Kappa agreement coefficient (P < 0.001). Moreover, regarding the predictive power, IWI had high sensitivity (95.6%), specificity (40%), positive and negative predictive values (90.5% and 60), positive and negative likelihood ratios (1.59 and 0.11), and accuracy (86.7%). Conclusion: The IWI as a more objective indicator has acceptable accuracy and power for predicting the 2-h SBT result. Therefore, in addition to the reliable prediction of the final weaning outcome, it has favorable power to predict if the patient is ready to breathe spontaneously as the first step to weaning. PMID:28904477

Global performance enhancements via pedestal optimisation on ASDEX Upgrade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunne, M. G.; Frassinetti, L.; Beurskens, M. N. A.; Cavedon, M.; Fietz, S.; Fischer, R.; Giannone, L.; Huijsmans, G. T. A.; Kurzan, B.; Laggner, F.; McCarthy, P. J.; McDermott, R. M.; Tardini, G.; Viezzer, E.; Willensdorfer, M.; Wolfrum, E.; The EUROfusion MST1 Team; The ASDEX Upgrade Team

2017-02-01

Results of experimental scans of heating power, plasma shape, and nitrogen content are presented, with a focus on global performance and pedestal alteration. In detailed scans at low triangularity, it is shown that the increase in stored energy due to nitrogen seeding stems from the pedestal. It is also shown that the confinement increase is driven through the temperature pedestal at the three heating power levels studied. In a triangularity scan, an orthogonal effect of shaping and seeding is observed, where increased plasma triangularity increases the pedestal density, while impurity seeding (carbon and nitrogen) increases the pedestal temperature in addition to this effect. Modelling of these effects was also undertaken, with interpretive and predictive models being employed. The interpretive analysis shows a general agreement of the experimental pedestals in separate power, shaping, and seeding scans with peeling-ballooning theory. Predictive analysis was used to isolate the individual effects, showing that the trends of additional heating power and increased triangularity can be recoverd. However, a simple change of the effective charge in the plasma cannot explain the observed levels of confinement improvement in the present models.

Predictive Value of Morphological Features in Patients with Autism versus Normal Controls

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ozgen, H.; Hellemann, G. S.; de Jonge, M. V.; Beemer, F. A.; van Engeland, H.

2013-01-01

We investigated the predictive power of morphological features in 224 autistic patients and 224 matched-pairs controls. To assess the relationship between the morphological features and autism, we used the receiver operator curves (ROC). In addition, we used recursive partitioning (RP) to determine a specific pattern of abnormalities that is…

Latinas and Postpartum Depression: Role of Partner Relationship, Additional Children, and Breastfeeding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hassert, Silva; Kurpius, Sharon E. Robinson

2011-01-01

Breastfeeding, additional children, and partner relationship predicted postpartum depression among 59 Latinas who had an infant who was 6 months old or younger. The most powerful predictor was conflict with partner. Counselors working with Latinas experiencing postpartum depression should explore the partner relationship, particularly relationship…

Predictive Trip Detection for Nuclear Power Plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rankin, Drew J.; Jiang, Jin

2016-08-01

This paper investigates the use of a Kalman filter (KF) to predict, within the shutdown system (SDS) of a nuclear power plant (NPP), whether safety parameter measurements have reached a trip set-point. In addition, least squares (LS) estimation compensates for prediction error due to system-model mismatch. The motivation behind predictive shutdown is to reduce the amount of time between the occurrence of a fault or failure and the time of trip detection, referred to as time-to-trip. These reductions in time-to-trip can ultimately lead to increases in safety and productivity margins. The proposed predictive SDS differs from conventional SDSs in that it compares point-predictions of the measurements, rather than sensor measurements, against trip set-points. The predictive SDS is validated through simulation and experiments for the steam generator water level safety parameter. Performance of the proposed predictive SDS is compared against benchmark conventional SDS with respect to time-to-trip. In addition, this paper analyzes: prediction uncertainty, as well as; the conditions under which it is possible to achieve reduced time-to-trip. Simulation results demonstrate that on average the predictive SDS reduces time-to-trip by an amount of time equal to the length of the prediction horizon and that the distribution of times-to-trip is approximately Gaussian. Experimental results reveal that a reduced time-to-trip can be achieved in a real-world system with unknown system-model mismatch and that the predictive SDS can be implemented with a scan time of under 100ms. Thus, this paper is a proof of concept for KF/LS-based predictive trip detection.

Predicting fatty acid profiles in blood based on food intake and the FADS1 rs174546 SNP.

PubMed

Hallmann, Jacqueline; Kolossa, Silvia; Gedrich, Kurt; Celis-Morales, Carlos; Forster, Hannah; O'Donovan, Clare B; Woolhead, Clara; Macready, Anna L; Fallaize, Rosalind; Marsaux, Cyril F M; Lambrinou, Christina-Paulina; Mavrogianni, Christina; Moschonis, George; Navas-Carretero, Santiago; San-Cristobal, Rodrigo; Godlewska, Magdalena; Surwiłło, Agnieszka; Mathers, John C; Gibney, Eileen R; Brennan, Lorraine; Walsh, Marianne C; Lovegrove, Julie A; Saris, Wim H M; Manios, Yannis; Martinez, Jose Alfredo; Traczyk, Iwona; Gibney, Michael J; Daniel, Hannelore

2015-12-01

A high intake of n-3 PUFA provides health benefits via changes in the n-6/n-3 ratio in blood. In addition to such dietary PUFAs, variants in the fatty acid desaturase 1 (FADS1) gene are also associated with altered PUFA profiles. We used mathematical modeling to predict levels of PUFA in whole blood, based on multiple hypothesis testing and bootstrapped LASSO selected food items, anthropometric and lifestyle factors, and the rs174546 genotypes in FADS1 from 1607 participants (Food4Me Study). The models were developed using data from the first reported time point (training set) and their predictive power was evaluated using data from the last reported time point (test set). Among other food items, fish, pizza, chicken, and cereals were identified as being associated with the PUFA profiles. Using these food items and the rs174546 genotypes as predictors, models explained 26-43% of the variability in PUFA concentrations in the training set and 22-33% in the test set. Selecting food items using multiple hypothesis testing is a valuable contribution to determine predictors, as our models' predictive power is higher compared to analogue studies. As unique feature, we additionally confirmed our models' power based on a test set. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Prediction of apparent extinction for optical transmission through rain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasseur, H.; Gibbins, C. J.

1996-12-01

At optical wavelengths, geometrical optics holds that the extinction efficiency of raindrops is equal to two. This approximation yields a wavelength-independent extinction coefficient that, however, can hardly be used to predict accurately rain extinction measured in optical transmissions. Actually, in addition to the extinct direct incoming light, a significant part of the power scattered by the rain particles reaches the receiver. This leads to a reduced apparent extinction that depends on both rain characteristics and link parameters. A simple method is proposed to evaluate this apparent extinction. It accounts for the additional scattered power that enters the receiver when one considers the forward-scattering pattern of the raindrops as well as the multiple-scattering effects using, respectively, the Fraunhofer diffraction and Twersky theory. It results in a direct analytical formula that enables a quick and accurate estimation of the rain apparent extinction and highlights the influence of the link parameters. Predictions of apparent extinction through rain are found in excellent agreement with measurements in the visible and IR regions.

Predicting College Success: The Relative Contributions of Five Social/Personality Factors, Five Cognitive/Learning Factors, and SAT Scores

PubMed Central

Hannon, Brenda

2014-01-01

To-date, studies have examined simultaneously the relative predictive powers of two or three factors on GPA. The present study examines the relative powers of five social/personality factors, five cognitive/learning factors, and SAT scores to predict freshmen and non-freshmen (sophomores, juniors, seniors) academic success (i.e., GPA). The results revealed many significant predictors of GPA for both freshmen and non-freshmen. However, subsequent regressions showed that only academic self-efficacy, epistemic belief of learning, and high-knowledge integration explained unique variance in GPA (19%-freshmen, 23.2%-non-freshmen). Further for freshmen, SAT scores explained an additional unique 10.6% variance after the influences attributed to these three predictors was removed whereas for non-freshmen, SAT scores failed to explain any additional variance. These results highlight the unique and important contributions of academic self-efficacy, epistemic belief of learning and high-knowledge integration to GPA beyond other previously-identified predictors. PMID:25568884

Predictive optimized adaptive PSS in a single machine infinite bus.

PubMed

Milla, Freddy; Duarte-Mermoud, Manuel A

2016-07-01

Power System Stabilizer (PSS) devices are responsible for providing a damping torque component to generators for reducing fluctuations in the system caused by small perturbations. A Predictive Optimized Adaptive PSS (POA-PSS) to improve the oscillations in a Single Machine Infinite Bus (SMIB) power system is discussed in this paper. POA-PSS provides the optimal design parameters for the classic PSS using an optimization predictive algorithm, which adapts to changes in the inputs of the system. This approach is part of small signal stability analysis, which uses equations in an incremental form around an operating point. Simulation studies on the SMIB power system illustrate that the proposed POA-PSS approach has better performance than the classical PSS. In addition, the effort in the control action of the POA-PSS is much less than that of other approaches considered for comparison. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A feasibility study on the predictive emission monitoring system applied to the Hsinta power plant of Taiwan Power Company.

PubMed

Chien, T W; Chu, H; Hsu, W C; Tseng, T K; Hsu, C H; Chen, K Y

2003-08-01

The continuous emission monitoring system (CEMS) can monitor flue gas emissions continuously and instantaneously. However, it has the disadvantages of enormous cost, easily producing errors in sampling periods of bad weather, lagging response in variable ambient environments, and missing data in daily zero and span tests and maintenance. The concept of a predictive emission monitoring system (PEMS) is to use the operating parameters of combustion equipment through thermodynamic or statistical methods to construct a mathematic model that can predict emissions by a computer program. The goal of this study is to set up a PEMS in a gas-fired combined cycle power generation unit at the Hsinta station of Taiwan Power Co. The emissions to be monitored include nitrogen oxides (NOx) and oxygen (O2) in flue gas. The major variables of the predictive model were determined based on the combustion theory. The data of these variables then were analyzed to establish a regression model. From the regression results, the influences of these variables are discussed and the predicted values are compared with the CEMS data for accuracy. In addition, according to the cost information, the capital and operation and maintenance costs for a PEMS can be much lower than those for a CEMS.

Contributions of the stochastic shape wake model to predictions of aerodynamic loads and power under single wake conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Doubrawa, P.; Barthelmie, R. J.; Wang, H.

The contribution of wake meandering and shape asymmetry to load and power estimates is quantified by comparing aeroelastic simulations initialized with different inflow conditions: an axisymmetric base wake, an unsteady stochastic shape wake, and a large-eddy simulation with rotating actuator-line turbine representation. Time series of blade-root and tower base bending moments are analyzed. We find that meandering has a large contribution to the fluctuation of the loads. Moreover, considering the wake edge intermittence via the stochastic shape model improves the simulation of load and power fluctuations and of the fatigue damage equivalent loads. Furthermore, these results indicate that the stochasticmore » shape wake simulator is a valuable addition to simplified wake models when seeking to obtain higher-fidelity computationally inexpensive predictions of loads and power.« less

Contributions of the stochastic shape wake model to predictions of aerodynamic loads and power under single wake conditions

DOE PAGES

Doubrawa, P.; Barthelmie, R. J.; Wang, H.; ...

2016-10-03

The contribution of wake meandering and shape asymmetry to load and power estimates is quantified by comparing aeroelastic simulations initialized with different inflow conditions: an axisymmetric base wake, an unsteady stochastic shape wake, and a large-eddy simulation with rotating actuator-line turbine representation. Time series of blade-root and tower base bending moments are analyzed. We find that meandering has a large contribution to the fluctuation of the loads. Moreover, considering the wake edge intermittence via the stochastic shape model improves the simulation of load and power fluctuations and of the fatigue damage equivalent loads. Furthermore, these results indicate that the stochasticmore » shape wake simulator is a valuable addition to simplified wake models when seeking to obtain higher-fidelity computationally inexpensive predictions of loads and power.« less

Potential of laser for SPS power transmission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bain, C. N.

1978-01-01

Research on the feasibility of using a laser subsystem as an additional option for the transmission of the satellite power system (STS) power is presented. Current laser work and predictions for future laser performance provide a level of confidence that the development of a laser power transmission system is technologically feasible in the time frame required to develop the SBS. There are significant economic advantages in lower ground distribution costs and a reduction of more than two orders of magnitude in real estate requirements for ground based receiving/conversion sites.

The non-linear power spectrum of the Lyman alpha forest

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arinyo-i-Prats, Andreu; Miralda-Escudé, Jordi; Viel, Matteo

2015-12-01

The Lyman alpha forest power spectrum has been measured on large scales by the BOSS survey in SDSS-III at z∼ 2.3, has been shown to agree well with linear theory predictions, and has provided the first measurement of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations at this redshift. However, the power at small scales, affected by non-linearities, has not been well examined so far. We present results from a variety of hydrodynamic simulations to predict the redshift space non-linear power spectrum of the Lyα transmission for several models, testing the dependence on resolution and box size. A new fitting formula is introduced to facilitate themore » comparison of our simulation results with observations and other simulations. The non-linear power spectrum has a generic shape determined by a transition scale from linear to non-linear anisotropy, and a Jeans scale below which the power drops rapidly. In addition, we predict the two linear bias factors of the Lyα forest and provide a better physical interpretation of their values and redshift evolution. The dependence of these bias factors and the non-linear power on the amplitude and slope of the primordial fluctuations power spectrum, the temperature-density relation of the intergalactic medium, and the mean Lyα transmission, as well as the redshift evolution, is investigated and discussed in detail. A preliminary comparison to the observations shows that the predicted redshift distortion parameter is in good agreement with the recent determination of Blomqvist et al., but the density bias factor is lower than observed. We make all our results publicly available in the form of tables of the non-linear power spectrum that is directly obtained from all our simulations, and parameters of our fitting formula.« less

Sparse Bayesian Learning for Identifying Imaging Biomarkers in AD Prediction

PubMed Central

Shen, Li; Qi, Yuan; Kim, Sungeun; Nho, Kwangsik; Wan, Jing; Risacher, Shannon L.; Saykin, Andrew J.

2010-01-01

We apply sparse Bayesian learning methods, automatic relevance determination (ARD) and predictive ARD (PARD), to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) classification to make accurate prediction and identify critical imaging markers relevant to AD at the same time. ARD is one of the most successful Bayesian feature selection methods. PARD is a powerful Bayesian feature selection method, and provides sparse models that is easy to interpret. PARD selects the model with the best estimate of the predictive performance instead of choosing the one with the largest marginal model likelihood. Comparative study with support vector machine (SVM) shows that ARD/PARD in general outperform SVM in terms of prediction accuracy. Additional comparison with surface-based general linear model (GLM) analysis shows that regions with strongest signals are identified by both GLM and ARD/PARD. While GLM P-map returns significant regions all over the cortex, ARD/PARD provide a small number of relevant and meaningful imaging markers with predictive power, including both cortical and subcortical measures. PMID:20879451

Prediction of Cardiorespiratory Fitness by the Six-Minute Step Test and Its Association with Muscle Strength and Power in Sedentary Obese and Lean Young Women: A Cross-Sectional Study

PubMed Central

Bonjorno Junior, José Carlos; de Oliveira, Cláudio Ricardo; Luporini, Rafael Luís; Mendes, Renata Gonçalves; Zangrando, Katiany Thais Lopes; Trimer, Renata; Arena, Ross

2015-01-01

Impaired cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is a hallmark characteristic in obese and lean sedentary young women. Peak oxygen consumption (VO2peak) prediction from the six-minute step test (6MST) has not been established for sedentary females. It is recognized that lower-limb muscle strength and power play a key role during functional activities. The aim of this study was to investigate cardiorespiratory responses during the 6MST and CPX and to develop a predictive equation to estimate VO2peak in both lean and obese subjects. Additionally we aim to investigate how muscle function impacts functional performance. Lean (LN = 13) and obese (OB = 18) women, aged 20–45, underwent a CPX, two 6MSTs, and isokinetic and isometric knee extensor strength and power evaluations. Regression analysis assessed the ability to predict VO2peak from the 6MST, age and body mass index (BMI). CPX and 6MST main outcomes were compared between LN and OB and correlated with strength and power variables. CRF, functional capacity, and muscle strength and power were lower in the OB compared to LN (<0.05). During the 6MST, LN and OB reached ~90% of predicted maximal heart rate and ~80% of the VO2peak obtained during CPX. BMI, age and number of step cycles (NSC) explained 83% of the total variance in VO2peak. Moderate to strong correlations between VO2peak at CPX and VO2peak at 6MST (r = 0.86), VO2peak at CPX and NSC (r = 0.80), as well as between VO2peak, NSC and muscle strength and power variables were found (p<0.05). These findings indicate the 6MST, BMI and age accurately predict VO2peak in both lean and obese young sedentary women. Muscle strength and power were related to measures of aerobic and functional performance. PMID:26717568

A Complete Procedure for Predicting and Improving the Performance of HAWT's

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Abadi, Ali; Ertunç, Özgür; Sittig, Florian; Delgado, Antonio

2014-06-01

A complete procedure for predicting and improving the performance of the horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT) has been developed. The first process is predicting the power extracted by the turbine and the derived rotor torque, which should be identical to that of the drive unit. The BEM method and a developed post-stall treatment for resolving stall-regulated HAWT is incorporated in the prediction. For that, a modified stall-regulated prediction model, which can predict the HAWT performance over the operating range of oncoming wind velocity, is derived from existing models. The model involves radius and chord, which has made it more general in applications for predicting the performance of different scales and rotor shapes of HAWTs. The second process is modifying the rotor shape by an optimization process, which can be applied to any existing HAWT, to improve its performance. A gradient- based optimization is used for adjusting the chord and twist angle distribution of the rotor blade to increase the extraction of the power while keeping the drive torque constant, thus the same drive unit can be kept. The final process is testing the modified turbine to predict its enhanced performance. The procedure is applied to NREL phase-VI 10kW as a baseline turbine. The study has proven the applicability of the developed model in predicting the performance of the baseline as well as the optimized turbine. In addition, the optimization method has shown that the power coefficient can be increased while keeping same design rotational speed.

New algorithm for toric intraocular lens power calculation considering the posterior corneal astigmatism.

PubMed

Canovas, Carmen; Alarcon, Aixa; Rosén, Robert; Kasthurirangan, Sanjeev; Ma, Joseph J K; Koch, Douglas D; Piers, Patricia

2018-02-01

To assess the accuracy of toric intraocular lens (IOL) power calculations of a new algorithm that incorporates the effect of posterior corneal astigmatism (PCA). Abbott Medical Optics, Inc., Groningen, the Netherlands. Retrospective case report. In eyes implanted with toric IOLs, the exact vergence formula of the Tecnis toric calculator was used to predict refractive astigmatism from preoperative biometry, surgeon-estimated surgically induced astigmatism (SIA), and implanted IOL power, with and without including the new PCA algorithm. For each calculation method, the error in predicted refractive astigmatism was calculated as the vector difference between the prediction and the actual refraction. Calculations were also made using postoperative keratometry (K) values to eliminate the potential effect of incorrect SIA estimates. The study comprised 274 eyes. The PCA algorithm significantly reduced the centroid error in predicted refractive astigmatism (P < .001). With the PCA algorithm, the centroid error reduced from 0.50 @ 1 to 0.19 @ 3 when using preoperative K values and from 0.30 @ 0 to 0.02 @ 84 when using postoperative K values. Patients who had anterior corneal against-the-rule, with-the-rule, and oblique astigmatism had improvement with the PCA algorithm. In addition, the PCA algorithm reduced the median absolute error in all groups (P < .001). The use of the new PCA algorithm decreased the error in the prediction of residual refractive astigmatism in eyes implanted with toric IOLs. Therefore, the new PCA algorithm, in combination with an exact vergence IOL power calculation formula, led to an increased predictability of toric IOL power. Copyright © 2018 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A neural network for the prediction of performance parameters of transformer cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nussbaum, C.; Booth, T.; Ilo, A.; Pfützner, H.

1996-07-01

The paper shows that Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) may offer new possibilities for the prediction of transformer core performance parameters, i.e. no-load power losses and excitation. Basically this technique enables simulations with respect to different construction parameters most notably the characteristics of corner designs, i.e. the overlap length, the air gap length, and the number of steps. However, without additional physical knowledge incorporated into the ANN extrapolation beyond the training data limits restricts the predictive performance.

A summary of wind power prediction methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuqi

2018-06-01

The deterministic prediction of wind power, the probability prediction and the prediction of wind power ramp events are introduced in this paper. Deterministic prediction includes the prediction of statistical learning based on histor ical data and the prediction of physical models based on NWP data. Due to the great impact of wind power ramp events on the power system, this paper also introduces the prediction of wind power ramp events. At last, the evaluation indicators of all kinds of prediction are given. The prediction of wind power can be a good solution to the adverse effects of wind power on the power system due to the abrupt, intermittent and undulation of wind power.

The utility of Bayesian predictive probabilities for interim monitoring of clinical trials

PubMed Central

Connor, Jason T.; Ayers, Gregory D; Alvarez, JoAnn

2014-01-01

Background Bayesian predictive probabilities can be used for interim monitoring of clinical trials to estimate the probability of observing a statistically significant treatment effect if the trial were to continue to its predefined maximum sample size. Purpose We explore settings in which Bayesian predictive probabilities are advantageous for interim monitoring compared to Bayesian posterior probabilities, p-values, conditional power, or group sequential methods. Results For interim analyses that address prediction hypotheses, such as futility monitoring and efficacy monitoring with lagged outcomes, only predictive probabilities properly account for the amount of data remaining to be observed in a clinical trial and have the flexibility to incorporate additional information via auxiliary variables. Limitations Computational burdens limit the feasibility of predictive probabilities in many clinical trial settings. The specification of prior distributions brings additional challenges for regulatory approval. Conclusions The use of Bayesian predictive probabilities enables the choice of logical interim stopping rules that closely align with the clinical decision making process. PMID:24872363

Wind Power Curve Modeling in Simple and Complex Terrain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bulaevskaya, V.; Wharton, S.; Irons, Z.

2015-02-09

Our previous work on wind power curve modeling using statistical models focused on a location with a moderately complex terrain in the Altamont Pass region in northern California (CA). The work described here is the follow-up to that work, but at a location with a simple terrain in northern Oklahoma (OK). The goal of the present analysis was to determine the gain in predictive ability afforded by adding information beyond the hub-height wind speed, such as wind speeds at other heights, as well as other atmospheric variables, to the power prediction model at this new location and compare the resultsmore » to those obtained at the CA site in the previous study. While we reach some of the same conclusions at both sites, many results reported for the CA site do not hold at the OK site. In particular, using the entire vertical profile of wind speeds improves the accuracy of wind power prediction relative to using the hub-height wind speed alone at both sites. However, in contrast to the CA site, the rotor equivalent wind speed (REWS) performs almost as well as the entire profile at the OK site. Another difference is that at the CA site, adding wind veer as a predictor significantly improved the power prediction accuracy. The same was true for that site when air density was added to the model separately instead of using the standard air density adjustment. At the OK site, these additional variables result in no significant benefit for the prediction accuracy.« less

The relationship of plasma miR-503 and coronary collateral circulation in patients with coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Fei, Yu; Hou, Jianhua; Xuan, Wei; Zhang, Chenghua; Meng, Xiuping

2018-06-02

Although angiogenesis plays an important role in coronary collateral circulation (CCC) formation and there are many determinants of coronary angiogenesis, they cannot fully explain the mechanism of CCC formation or as potent biomarker for CCC status. Therefore, there is of great clinical significance to identify the novel molecules associated with CCC. Previously, miR-503 exerts anti-angiogenesis effect via inhibition of VEGF-A and its expression is associated with many angiogenesis-related factors. Thus, we aimed to investigate the relationship of plasma miR-503 with CCC formation as well as its predictive power for CCC status in patients with coronary artery disease. Among patients who underwent coronary angiography with coronary artery disease and a stenosis of ≥90% were included in our study. Collateral degree was graded according to Rentrop Cohen classification. The patients were divided to good CCC group (grade 2 or 3) and poor CCC group (grade 0 or 1) according to Rentrop grade. We investigated the plasma levels of miR-503 and VEGF-A by ELISA or q RT-PCR, respectively. In addition, we assayed the correlations of plasma miR-503 with VEGF-A or Rentrop grade using the spearman correlation test and its predictive power by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and binary logistical regression analysis. Our data showed that plasma VEGF-A was significantly higher in good CCC group than that in poor group. Plasma miR-503 was lower in CAD patients with good CCC or poor CCC compared with control subjects and lowest in good CCC group. In addition, miR-503 negatively correlated with VEGF-A and Rentrop grade, respectively. Moreover, miR-503 displayed more potent predictive power for CCC status than VEGF-A, but its sensitivity and specificity for CCC status were only 72.4 or 60.9%, respectively. Lower plasma miR-503 level was related to better CCC formation, accompanied by up-regulation of VEGF-A. In addition, miR-503 displayed potent predictive power for CCC status, but its sensitivity and specificity were not high enough, indicating that miR-503 might be as an additional prognosis biomarker for CCC. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Environmental Hydrocarbon Harvesting for Micro-Scale Power Sources using Thermopower Waves

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-06

expected by thermoelectricity . The peak specific power was found to be as high as 7 kW kg-1. Additionally, an analytical expression governing the...unipolar voltage across the ends of the conduit. Conventional theories of thermoelectricity and Seebeck coefficient are unable to predict the electrical...behavior of thermopower wave devices. We studied the differences in these two phenomena of conventional thermoelectricity and thermopower waves

Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosgaard, M. H.; Giebel, G.; Nielsen, T. S.; Hahmann, A.; Sørensen, P.; Madsen, H.

2012-04-01

This poster presents the current state of the public service obligation (PSO) funded project PSO 10464, with the working title "Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool". The project commenced October 1, 2011, and the goal is to integrate a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with purely statistical tools in order to assess wind power fluctuations, with focus on long term power system planning for future wind farms as well as short term forecasting for existing wind farms. Currently, wind power fluctuation models are either purely statistical or integrated with NWP models of limited resolution. With regard to the latter, one such simulation tool has been developed at the Wind Energy Division, Risø DTU, intended for long term power system planning. As part of the PSO project the inferior NWP model used at present will be replaced by the state-of-the-art Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model. Furthermore, the integrated simulation tool will be improved so it can handle simultaneously 10-50 times more turbines than the present ~ 300, as well as additional atmospheric parameters will be included in the model. The WRF data will also be input for a statistical short term prediction model to be developed in collaboration with ENFOR A/S; a danish company that specialises in forecasting and optimisation for the energy sector. This integrated prediction model will allow for the description of the expected variability in wind power production in the coming hours to days, accounting for its spatio-temporal dependencies, and depending on the prevailing weather conditions defined by the WRF output. The output from the integrated prediction tool constitute scenario forecasts for the coming period, which can then be fed into any type of system model or decision making problem to be solved. The high resolution of the WRF results loaded into the integrated prediction model will ensure a high accuracy data basis is available for use in the decision making process of the Danish transmission system operator, and the need for high accuracy predictions will only increase over the next decade as Denmark approaches the goal of 50% wind power based electricity in 2020, from the current 20%.

Steady-State Plant Model to Predict Hydroden Levels in Power Plant Components

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Glatzmaier, Greg C.; Cable, Robert; Newmarker, Marc

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Acciona Energy North America developed a full-plant steady-state computational model that estimates levels of hydrogen in parabolic trough power plant components. The model estimated dissolved hydrogen concentrations in the circulating heat transfer fluid (HTF), and corresponding partial pressures within each component. Additionally for collector field receivers, the model estimated hydrogen pressure in the receiver annuli. The model was developed to estimate long-term equilibrium hydrogen levels in power plant components, and to predict the benefit of hydrogen mitigation strategies for commercial power plants. Specifically, the model predicted reductions in hydrogen levels within the circulatingmore » HTF that result from purging hydrogen from the power plant expansion tanks at a specified target rate. Our model predicted hydrogen partial pressures from 8.3 mbar to 9.6 mbar in the power plant components when no mitigation treatment was employed at the expansion tanks. Hydrogen pressures in the receiver annuli were 8.3 to 8.4 mbar. When hydrogen partial pressure was reduced to 0.001 mbar in the expansion tanks, hydrogen pressures in the receiver annuli fell to a range of 0.001 mbar to 0.02 mbar. When hydrogen partial pressure was reduced to 0.3 mbar in the expansion tanks, hydrogen pressures in the receiver annuli fell to a range of 0.25 mbar to 0.28 mbar. Our results show that controlling hydrogen partial pressure in the expansion tanks allows us to reduce and maintain hydrogen pressures in the receiver annuli to any practical level.« less

ARPA-E: Advancing the Electric Grid

ScienceCinema

Lemmon, John; Ruiz, Pablo; Sommerer, Tim; Aziz, Michael

2018-06-07

The electric grid was designed with the assumption that all energy generation sources would be relatively controllable, and grid operators would always be able to predict when and where those sources would be located. With the addition of renewable energy sources like wind and solar, which can be installed faster than traditional generation technologies, this is no longer the case. Furthermore, the fact that renewable energy sources are imperfectly predictable means that the grid has to adapt in real-time to changing patterns of power flow. We need a dynamic grid that is far more flexible. This video highlights three ARPA-E-funded approaches to improving the grid's flexibility: topology control software from Boston University that optimizes power flow, gas tube switches from General Electric that provide efficient power conversion, and flow batteries from Harvard University that offer grid-scale energy storage.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zohar, S.; Sterbinsky, G. E.

Here, we propose an experimental technique for extending feedback compensation of dissipative radiation used in nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) to encompass ferromagnetic resonance (FMR). This method uses a balanced microwave power detector whose output is phase shifted π/2, amplified, and fed back to drive precession. Using classical control theory, we predict an electronically controllable narrowing of field swept FMR line-widths. This technique is predicted to compensate other sources of spin dissipation in addition to radiative loss.

Analysis of significant factors for dengue fever incidence prediction.

PubMed

Siriyasatien, Padet; Phumee, Atchara; Ongruk, Phatsavee; Jampachaisri, Katechan; Kesorn, Kraisak

2016-04-16

Many popular dengue forecasting techniques have been used by several researchers to extrapolate dengue incidence rates, including the K-H model, support vector machines (SVM), and artificial neural networks (ANN). The time series analysis methodology, particularly ARIMA and SARIMA, has been increasingly applied to the field of epidemiological research for dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever, and other infectious diseases. The main drawback of these methods is that they do not consider other variables that are associated with the dependent variable. Additionally, new factors correlated to the disease are needed to enhance the prediction accuracy of the model when it is applied to areas of similar climates, where weather factors such as temperature, total rainfall, and humidity are not substantially different. Such drawbacks may consequently lower the predictive power for the outbreak. The predictive power of the forecasting model-assessed by Akaike's information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)-is improved by including the new parameters for dengue outbreak prediction. This study's selected model outperforms all three other competing models with the lowest AIC, the lowest BIC, and a small MAPE value. The exclusive use of climate factors from similar locations decreases a model's prediction power. The multivariate Poisson regression, however, effectively forecasts even when climate variables are slightly different. Female mosquitoes and seasons were strongly correlated with dengue cases. Therefore, the dengue incidence trends provided by this model will assist the optimization of dengue prevention. The present work demonstrates the important roles of female mosquito infection rates from the previous season and climate factors (represented as seasons) in dengue outbreaks. Incorporating these two factors in the model significantly improves the predictive power of dengue hemorrhagic fever forecasting models, as confirmed by AIC, BIC, and MAPE.

Bistable energy harvesting enhancement with an auxiliary linear oscillator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harne, R. L.; Thota, M.; Wang, K. W.

2013-12-01

Recent work has indicated that linear vibrational energy harvesters with an appended degree-of-freedom (DOF) may be advantageous for introducing new dynamic forms to extend the operational bandwidth. Given the additional interest in bistable harvester designs, which exhibit a propitious snap through effect from one stable state to the other, it is a logical extension to explore the influence of an added DOF to a bistable system. However, bistable snap through is not a resonant phenomenon, which tempers the presumption that the dynamics induced by an additional DOF on bistable designs would inherently be beneficial as for linear systems. This paper presents two analytical formulations to assess the fundamental and superharmonic steady-state dynamics of an excited bistable energy harvester to which is attached an auxiliary linear oscillator. From an energy harvesting perspective, the model predicts that the additional linear DOF uniformly amplifies the bistable harvester response magnitude and generated power for excitation frequencies less than the attachment’s resonance while improved power density spans a bandwidth below this frequency. Analyses predict bandwidths having co-existent responses composed of a unique proportion of fundamental and superharmonic dynamics. Experiments validate key analytical predictions and observe the ability for the coupled system to develop an advantageous multi-harmonic interwell response when the initial conditions are insufficient for continuous high-energy orbit at the excitation frequency. Overall, the addition of an auxiliary linear oscillator to a bistable harvester is found to be an effective means of enhancing the energy harvesting performance and robustness.

Gearing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coy, J. J.; Townsend, D. P.; Zaretsky, E. V.

1985-01-01

Gearing technology in its modern form has a history of only 100 years. However, the earliest form of gearing can probably be traced back to fourth century B.C. Greece. Current gear practice and recent advances in the technology are drawn together. The history of gearing is reviewed briefly in the Introduction. Subsequent sections describe types of gearing and their geometry, processing, and manufacture. Both conventional and more recent methods of determining gear stress and deflections are considered. The subjects of life prediction and lubrication are additions to the literature. New and more complete methods of power loss predictions as well as an optimum design of spur gear meshes are described. Conventional and new types of power transmission systems are presented.

Analytic model for ultrasound energy receivers and their optimal electric loads II: Experimental validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorostiaga, M.; Wapler, M. C.; Wallrabe, U.

2017-10-01

In this paper, we verify the two optimal electric load concepts based on the zero reflection condition and on the power maximization approach for ultrasound energy receivers. We test a high loss 1-3 composite transducer, and find that the measurements agree very well with the predictions of the analytic model for plate transducers that we have developed previously. Additionally, we also confirm that the power maximization and zero reflection loads are very different when the losses in the receiver are high. Finally, we compare the optimal load predictions by the KLM and the analytic models with frequency dependent attenuation to evaluate the influence of the viscosity.

Incorporating Psychological Predictors of Treatment Response into Health Economic Simulation Models: A Case Study in Type 1 Diabetes.

PubMed

Kruger, Jen; Pollard, Daniel; Basarir, Hasan; Thokala, Praveen; Cooke, Debbie; Clark, Marie; Bond, Rod; Heller, Simon; Brennan, Alan

2015-10-01

. Health economic modeling has paid limited attention to the effects that patients' psychological characteristics have on the effectiveness of treatments. This case study tests 1) the feasibility of incorporating psychological prediction models of treatment response within an economic model of type 1 diabetes, 2) the potential value of providing treatment to a subgroup of patients, and 3) the cost-effectiveness of providing treatment to a subgroup of responders defined using 5 different algorithms. . Multiple linear regressions were used to investigate relationships between patients' psychological characteristics and treatment effectiveness. Two psychological prediction models were integrated with a patient-level simulation model of type 1 diabetes. Expected value of individualized care analysis was undertaken. Five different algorithms were used to provide treatment to a subgroup of predicted responders. A cost-effectiveness analysis compared using the algorithms to providing treatment to all patients. . The psychological prediction models had low predictive power for treatment effectiveness. Expected value of individualized care results suggested that targeting education at responders could be of value. The cost-effectiveness analysis suggested, for all 5 algorithms, that providing structured education to a subgroup of predicted responders would not be cost-effective. . The psychological prediction models tested did not have sufficient predictive power to make targeting treatment cost-effective. The psychological prediction models are simple linear models of psychological behavior. Collection of data on additional covariates could potentially increase statistical power. . By collecting data on psychological variables before an intervention, we can construct predictive models of treatment response to interventions. These predictive models can be incorporated into health economic models to investigate more complex service delivery and reimbursement strategies. © The Author(s) 2015.

Methods to Measure, Predict and Relate Friction, Wear and Fuel Economy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gravante, Steve; Fenske, George; Demas, Nicholas

High-fidelity measurements of the coefficient of friction and the parasitic friction power of the power cylinder components have been made for the Isuzu 5.2L 4H on-highway engine. In particular, measurements of the asperity friction coefficient were made with test coupons using Argonne National Lab’s (ANL) reciprocating test rig for the ring-on-liner and skirt-on-liner component pairs. These measurements correlated well with independent measurements made by Electro-Mechanical Associates (EMA). In addition, surface roughness measurements of the Isuzu components were made using white light interferometer (WLI). The asperity friction and surface characterization are key inputs to advanced CAE simulation tools such as RINGPAKmore » and PISDYN which are used to predict the friction power and wear rates of power cylinder components. Finally, motored friction tests were successfully performed to quantify the friction mean effective pressure (FMEP) of the power cylinder components for various oils (High viscosity 15W40, low viscosity 5W20 with friction modifier (FM) and specially blended oil containing consisting of PAO/ZDDP/MoDTC) at 25, 50, and 110°C.« less

The wind power prediction research based on mind evolutionary algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Ling; Zhao, Xinjian; Ji, Tianming; Miao, Jingwen; Cui, Haina

2018-04-01

When the wind power is connected to the power grid, its characteristics of fluctuation, intermittent and randomness will affect the stability of the power system. The wind power prediction can guarantee the power quality and reduce the operating cost of power system. There were some limitations in several traditional wind power prediction methods. On the basis, the wind power prediction method based on Mind Evolutionary Algorithm (MEA) is put forward and a prediction model is provided. The experimental results demonstrate that MEA performs efficiently in term of the wind power prediction. The MEA method has broad prospect of engineering application.

Ramping and Uncertainty Prediction Tool - Analysis and Visualization of Wind Generation Impact on Electrical Grid

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Etingov, Pavel; Makarov, PNNL Yuri; Subbarao, PNNL Kris

RUT software is designed for use by the Balancing Authorities to predict and display additional requirements caused by the variability and uncertainty in load and generation. The prediction is made for the next operating hours as well as for the next day. The tool predicts possible deficiencies in generation capability and ramping capability. This deficiency of balancing resources can cause serious risks to power system stability and also impact real-time market energy prices. The tool dynamically and adaptively correlates changing system conditions with the additional balancing needs triggered by the interplay between forecasted and actual load and output of variablemore » resources. The assessment is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm incorporating multiple sources of uncertainty including wind, solar and load forecast errors. The tool evaluates required generation for a worst case scenario, with a user-specified confidence level.« less

Multi-Temporal Decomposed Wind and Load Power Models for Electric Energy Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdel-Karim, Noha

This thesis is motivated by the recognition that sources of uncertainties in electric power systems are multifold and may have potentially far-reaching effects. In the past, only system load forecast was considered to be the main challenge. More recently, however, the uncertain price of electricity and hard-to-predict power produced by renewable resources, such as wind and solar, are making the operating and planning environment much more challenging. The near-real-time power imbalances are compensated by means of frequency regulation and generally require fast-responding costly resources. Because of this, a more accurate forecast and look-ahead scheduling would result in a reduced need for expensive power balancing. Similarly, long-term planning and seasonal maintenance need to take into account long-term demand forecast as well as how the short-term generation scheduling is done. The better the demand forecast, the more efficient planning will be as well. Moreover, computer algorithms for scheduling and planning are essential in helping the system operators decide what to schedule and planners what to build. This is needed given the overall complexity created by different abilities to adjust the power output of generation technologies, demand uncertainties and by the network delivery constraints. Given the growing presence of major uncertainties, it is likely that the main control applications will use more probabilistic approaches. Today's predominantly deterministic methods will be replaced by methods which account for key uncertainties as decisions are made. It is well-understood that although demand and wind power cannot be predicted at very high accuracy, taking into consideration predictions and scheduling in a look-ahead way over several time horizons generally results in more efficient and reliable utilization, than when decisions are made assuming deterministic, often worst-case scenarios. This change is in approach is going to ultimately require new electricity market rules capable of providing the right incentives to manage uncertainties and of differentiating various technologies according to the rate at which they can respond to ever changing conditions. Given the overall need for modeling uncertainties in electric energy systems, we consider in this thesis the problem of multi-temporal modeling of wind and demand power, in particular. Historic data is used to derive prediction models for several future time horizons. Short-term prediction models derived can be used for look-ahead economic dispatch and unit commitment, while the long-term annual predictive models can be used for investment planning. As expected, the accuracy of such predictive models depends on the time horizons over which the predictions are made, as well as on the nature of uncertain signals. It is shown that predictive models obtained using the same general modeling approaches result in different accuracy for wind than for demand power. In what follows, we introduce several models which have qualitatively different patterns, ranging from hourly to annual. We first transform historic time-stamped data into the Fourier Transform (Fr) representation. The frequency domain data representation is used to decompose the wind and load power signals and to derive predictive models relevant for short-term and long-term predictions using extracted spectral techniques. The short-term results are interpreted next as a Linear Prediction Coding Model (LPC) and its accuracy is analyzed. Next, a new Markov-Based Sensitivity Model (MBSM) for short term prediction has been proposed and the dispatched costs of uncertainties for different predictive models with comparisons have been developed. Moreover, the Discrete Markov Process (DMP) representation is applied to help assess probabilities of most likely short-, medium- and long-term states and the related multi-temporal risks. In addition, this thesis discusses operational impacts of wind power integration in different scenario levels by performing more than 9,000 AC Optimal Power Flow runs. The effects of both wind and load variations on system constraints and costs are presented. The limitations of DC Optimal Power Flow (DCOPF) vs. ACOPF are emphasized by means of system convergence problems due to the effect of wind power on changing line flows and net power injections. By studying the effect of having wind power on line flows, we found that the divergence problem applies in areas with high wind and hydro generation capacity share (cheap generations). (Abstract shortened by UMI.).

[Differences between experts and novices in estimations of cue predictive power in crime].

PubMed

García-Retamero, Rocío; Dhami, Mandeep K

2009-08-01

In this study, we compared experts' and novices' estimates of the power of several cues to predict residential burglary. Participants were experienced police officers and burglars, and graduates with no experience in this domain. They all estimated the weight of each cue in predicting the likelihood of a property being burgled. In addition, they ranked the cues according to how useful they would be in predicting the likelihood of burglary. Results showed that the two expert groups differed substantially in their cue weights and rankings, and the police officers were actually more similar to novices in this regard. Beyond this, the two expert groups were more consistent in their responses than novices, that is, they showed less variability in their estimates when using different response method and were more consistent with other participants from their own group. Our results extend the literature on expert-novice differences, and have implications for criminal justice policy and decision making.

Systems Biology-Based Identification of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Persistence Genes in Mouse Lungs

PubMed Central

Dutta, Noton K.; Bandyopadhyay, Nirmalya; Veeramani, Balaji; Lamichhane, Gyanu; Karakousis, Petros C.; Bader, Joel S.

2014-01-01

ABSTRACT Identifying Mycobacterium tuberculosis persistence genes is important for developing novel drugs to shorten the duration of tuberculosis (TB) treatment. We developed computational algorithms that predict M. tuberculosis genes required for long-term survival in mouse lungs. As the input, we used high-throughput M. tuberculosis mutant library screen data, mycobacterial global transcriptional profiles in mice and macrophages, and functional interaction networks. We selected 57 unique, genetically defined mutants (18 previously tested and 39 untested) to assess the predictive power of this approach in the murine model of TB infection. We observed a 6-fold enrichment in the predicted set of M. tuberculosis genes required for persistence in mouse lungs relative to randomly selected mutant pools. Our results also allowed us to reclassify several genes as required for M. tuberculosis persistence in vivo. Finally, the new results implicated additional high-priority candidate genes for testing. Experimental validation of computational predictions demonstrates the power of this systems biology approach for elucidating M. tuberculosis persistence genes. PMID:24549847

Base drag prediction on missile configurations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, F. G.; Hymer, T.; Wilcox, F.

1993-01-01

New wind tunnel data have been taken, and a new empirical model has been developed for predicting base drag on missile configurations. The new wind tunnel data were taken at NASA-Langley in the Unitary Wind Tunnel at Mach numbers from 2.0 to 4.5, angles of attack to 16 deg, fin control deflections up to 20 deg, fin thickness/chord of 0.05 to 0.15, and fin locations from 'flush with the base' to two chord-lengths upstream of the base. The empirical model uses these data along with previous wind tunnel data, estimating base drag as a function of all these variables as well as boat-tail and power-on/power-off effects. The new model yields improved accuracy, compared to wind tunnel data. The new model also is more robust due to inclusion of additional variables. On the other hand, additional wind tunnel data are needed to validate or modify the current empirical model in areas where data are not available.

Prediction of silicon oxynitride plasma etching using a generalized regression neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Byungwhan; Lee, Byung Teak

2005-08-01

A prediction model of silicon oxynitride (SiON) etching was constructed using a neural network. Model prediction performance was improved by means of genetic algorithm. The etching was conducted in a C2F6 inductively coupled plasma. A 24 full factorial experiment was employed to systematically characterize parameter effects on SiON etching. The process parameters include radio frequency source power, bias power, pressure, and C2F6 flow rate. To test the appropriateness of the trained model, additional 16 experiments were conducted. For comparison, four types of statistical regression models were built. Compared to the best regression model, the optimized neural network model demonstrated an improvement of about 52%. The optimized model was used to infer etch mechanisms as a function of parameters. The pressure effect was noticeably large only as relatively large ion bombardment was maintained in the process chamber. Ion-bombardment-activated polymer deposition played the most significant role in interpreting the complex effect of bias power or C2F6 flow rate. Moreover, [CF2] was expected to be the predominant precursor to polymer deposition.

Cycling Power Outputs Predict Functional Threshold Power And Maximum Oxygen Uptake.

PubMed

Denham, Joshua; Scott-Hamilton, John; Hagstrom, Amanda D; Gray, Adrian J

2017-09-11

Functional threshold power (FTP) has emerged as a correlate of lactate threshold and is commonly assessed by recreational and professional cyclists for tailored exercise programing. To identify whether results from traditional aerobic and anaerobic cycling tests could predict FTP and V˙ O2max, we analysed the association between estimated FTP, maximum oxygen uptake (V˙ O2max [mlkgmin]) and power outputs obtained from a maximal cycle ergometry cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET) and a 30-s Wingate test in a heterogeneous cohort of cycle-trained and untrained individuals (N=40, mean±SD; age: 32.6±10.6 y; relative V˙ O2max: 46.8±9.1 mlkgmin). The accuracy and sensitivity of the prediction equations was also assessed in young men (N=11) before and after a 6-wk sprint interval training intervention.Moderate to strong positive correlations were observed between FTP, relative V˙ O2max and power outputs achieved during incremental and 30-s Wingate cycling tests (r=.39-.965, all P<.05). While maximum power achieved during incremental cycle testing (Pmax) and relative V˙ O2max were predictors of FTP (r =.93), age and FTP (Wkg) estimated relative V˙ O2max (r=.80). Our findings confirm that FTP predominantly relies on aerobic metabolism and indicate both prediction models are sensitive enough to detect meaningful exercise-induced changes in FTP and V˙ O2max. Thus, coaches should consider limiting the time and load demands placed on athletes by conducting a maximal cycle ergometry CPET to estimate FTP. Additionally, a 20-min FTP test is a convenient method to assess V˙ O2max and is particularly relevant for exercise professionals without access to expensive CPET equipment.

On Application of Model Predictive Control to Power Converter with Switching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zanma, Tadanao; Fukuta, Junichi; Doki, Shinji; Ishida, Muneaki; Okuma, Shigeru; Matsumoto, Takashi; Nishimori, Eiji

This paper concerns a DC-DC converter control. In DC-DC converters, there exist both continuous components such as inductance, conductance and resistance and discrete ones, IGBT and MOSFET as semiconductor switching elements. Such a system can be regarded as a hybrid dynamical system. Thus, this paper presents a dc-dc control technique based on the model predictive control. Specifically, a case in which the load of the dc-dc converter changes from active to sleep is considered. In the case, a control method which makes the output voltage follow to the reference quickly in transition, and the switching frequency be constant in steady state. In addition, in applying the model predictive control to power electronics circuits, the switching characteristic of the device and the restriction condition for protection are also considered. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by comparing a conventional method through some simulation results.

The HEXACO Model of Personality and Risky Driving Behavior.

PubMed

Burtăverde, Vlad; Chraif, Mihaela; Aniţei, Mihai; Dumitru, Daniela

2017-04-01

This research tested the association between the HEXACO personality model and risky driving behavior as well as the predictive power of the HEXACO model in explaining risky driving behavior compared with the Big Five model. In Sample 1, 227 undergraduate students completed measures of the HEXACO personality model, the Big Five model, and driving aggression. In Sample 2, 244 community respondents completed measures of the HEXACO personality model, the Big Five model, and driving styles. Results showed that the Honesty-Humility factor is an important addition to personality models that aim to explain risky driving behavior as being related to all forms of driving aggression as well as to maladaptive and adaptive driving styles and having incremental validity in predicting verbally aggressive expression, risky driving, high-velocity driving, and careful driving. Moreover, compared with the Big Five model, the HEXACO model had better predictive power of aggressive driving.

Electrically rectified piezoelectric energy harvester excited by rotary magnetic plucking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu, Y. C.; Chang, Y. P.; Wang, W. C.

2018-03-01

The paper is focuses on the development of a theoretical framework together with an experimental validation to investigate rotational piezoelectric energy harvesting. The proposed device includes an electrically rectified piezoelectric bimorph mounted on a stationary base with a magnet attached to its free end. Energy is harvested by vibration of beam induced by non-contact rotary magnetic plucking. The DC power frequency response is predicted and found to be in good agreement with experiment. It shows that the harvested DC power is around 1 mW in average with the rotational frequency ranging from 5 Hz to 14 Hz. In addition, the parallel connection of two piezoelectric oscillators with respective electrical rectification is considered. It is observed that the power output of the array is the addition of the response from each individual piezoelectric oscillator.

Qualification testing and electrical measurement experience: A manufacturer's view

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnett, J. C.; Cooley, J. E.; Wingert, T. L.

1983-11-01

ARCO Solar's experiences as a participant in an industry-utility-government environmental qualification team examining photovoltaic devices are discussed. Included is an assessment of the applicability, completeness and appropriateness of the testing procedures and of the acceptance criteria for megawatt-sized procurements for utilities. Like the stand-alone users, the utility industry is interested in obtaining low costs, but additional concerns exist related to reliability and durability, safety, grounding and overall system criteria including performance prediction (related to output power acceptance testing), power quality and dispatchability. For purposes of this first major purchase of photovoltaic modules and panels by the utility industry, there was a carry-over of the JPL specifications. The need exists for futher development, assessement, and selection of qualification and testing standards and evaluation criteria specifically addressing these additional concerns for utility-connected PV power-plant applications.

Qualification testing and electrical measurement experience: A manufacturer's view

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnett, J. C.; Cooley, J. E.; Wingert, T. L.

1983-01-01

ARCO Solar's experiences as a participant in an industry-utility-government environmental qualification team examining photovoltaic devices are discussed. Included is an assessment of the applicability, completeness and appropriateness of the testing procedures and of the acceptance criteria for megawatt-sized procurements for utilities. Like the stand-alone users, the utility industry is interested in obtaining low costs, but additional concerns exist related to reliability and durability, safety, grounding and overall system criteria including performance prediction (related to output power acceptance testing), power quality and dispatchability. For purposes of this first major purchase of photovoltaic modules and panels by the utility industry, there was a carry-over of the JPL specifications. The need exists for futher development, assessement, and selection of qualification and testing standards and evaluation criteria specifically addressing these additional concerns for utility-connected PV power-plant applications.

Enhanced outage prediction modeling for strong extratropical storms and hurricanes in the Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerrai, D.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Wanik, D. W.; Bhuiyan, M. A. E.; Zhang, X.; Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Frediani, M. E.; Schwartz, C. S.; Pardakhti, M.

2016-12-01

The overwhelming majority of human activities need reliable electric power. Severe weather events can cause power outages, resulting in substantial economic losses and a temporary worsening of living conditions. Accurate prediction of these events and the communication of forecasted impacts to the affected utilities is necessary for efficient emergency preparedness and mitigation. The University of Connecticut Outage Prediction Model (OPM) uses regression tree models, high-resolution weather reanalysis and real-time weather forecasts (WRF and NCAR ensemble), airport station data, vegetation and electric grid characteristics and historical outage data to forecast the number and spatial distribution of outages in the power distribution grid located within dense vegetation. Recent OPM improvements consist of improved storm classification and addition of new predictive weather-related variables and are demonstrated using a leave-one-storm-out cross-validation based on 130 severe extratropical storms and two hurricanes (Sandy and Irene) in the Northeast US. We show that it is possible to predict the number of trouble spots causing outages in the electric grid with a median absolute percentage error as low as 27% for some storm types, and at most around 40%, in a scale that varies between four orders of magnitude, from few outages to tens of thousands. This outage information can be communicated to the electric utility to manage allocation of crews and equipment and minimize the recovery time for an upcoming storm hazard.

Applying multibeam sonar and mathematical modeling for mapping seabed substrate and biota of offshore shallows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herkül, Kristjan; Peterson, Anneliis; Paekivi, Sander

2017-06-01

Both basic science and marine spatial planning are in a need of high resolution spatially continuous data on seabed habitats and biota. As conventional point-wise sampling is unable to cover large spatial extents in high detail, it must be supplemented with remote sensing and modeling in order to fulfill the scientific and management needs. The combined use of in situ sampling, sonar scanning, and mathematical modeling is becoming the main method for mapping both abiotic and biotic seabed features. Further development and testing of the methods in varying locations and environmental settings is essential for moving towards unified and generally accepted methodology. To fill the relevant research gap in the Baltic Sea, we used multibeam sonar and mathematical modeling methods - generalized additive models (GAM) and random forest (RF) - together with underwater video to map seabed substrate and epibenthos of offshore shallows. In addition to testing the general applicability of the proposed complex of techniques, the predictive power of different sonar-based variables and modeling algorithms were tested. Mean depth, followed by mean backscatter, were the most influential variables in most of the models. Generally, mean values of sonar-based variables had higher predictive power than their standard deviations. The predictive accuracy of RF was higher than that of GAM. To conclude, we found the method to be feasible and with predictive accuracy similar to previous studies of sonar-based mapping.

Integrating Crop Growth Models with Whole Genome Prediction through Approximate Bayesian Computation.

PubMed

Technow, Frank; Messina, Carlos D; Totir, L Radu; Cooper, Mark

2015-01-01

Genomic selection, enabled by whole genome prediction (WGP) methods, is revolutionizing plant breeding. Existing WGP methods have been shown to deliver accurate predictions in the most common settings, such as prediction of across environment performance for traits with additive gene effects. However, prediction of traits with non-additive gene effects and prediction of genotype by environment interaction (G×E), continues to be challenging. Previous attempts to increase prediction accuracy for these particularly difficult tasks employed prediction methods that are purely statistical in nature. Augmenting the statistical methods with biological knowledge has been largely overlooked thus far. Crop growth models (CGMs) attempt to represent the impact of functional relationships between plant physiology and the environment in the formation of yield and similar output traits of interest. Thus, they can explain the impact of G×E and certain types of non-additive gene effects on the expressed phenotype. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), a novel and powerful computational procedure, allows the incorporation of CGMs directly into the estimation of whole genome marker effects in WGP. Here we provide a proof of concept study for this novel approach and demonstrate its use with synthetic data sets. We show that this novel approach can be considerably more accurate than the benchmark WGP method GBLUP in predicting performance in environments represented in the estimation set as well as in previously unobserved environments for traits determined by non-additive gene effects. We conclude that this proof of concept demonstrates that using ABC for incorporating biological knowledge in the form of CGMs into WGP is a very promising and novel approach to improving prediction accuracy for some of the most challenging scenarios in plant breeding and applied genetics.

Integrating Crop Growth Models with Whole Genome Prediction through Approximate Bayesian Computation

PubMed Central

Technow, Frank; Messina, Carlos D.; Totir, L. Radu; Cooper, Mark

2015-01-01

Genomic selection, enabled by whole genome prediction (WGP) methods, is revolutionizing plant breeding. Existing WGP methods have been shown to deliver accurate predictions in the most common settings, such as prediction of across environment performance for traits with additive gene effects. However, prediction of traits with non-additive gene effects and prediction of genotype by environment interaction (G×E), continues to be challenging. Previous attempts to increase prediction accuracy for these particularly difficult tasks employed prediction methods that are purely statistical in nature. Augmenting the statistical methods with biological knowledge has been largely overlooked thus far. Crop growth models (CGMs) attempt to represent the impact of functional relationships between plant physiology and the environment in the formation of yield and similar output traits of interest. Thus, they can explain the impact of G×E and certain types of non-additive gene effects on the expressed phenotype. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), a novel and powerful computational procedure, allows the incorporation of CGMs directly into the estimation of whole genome marker effects in WGP. Here we provide a proof of concept study for this novel approach and demonstrate its use with synthetic data sets. We show that this novel approach can be considerably more accurate than the benchmark WGP method GBLUP in predicting performance in environments represented in the estimation set as well as in previously unobserved environments for traits determined by non-additive gene effects. We conclude that this proof of concept demonstrates that using ABC for incorporating biological knowledge in the form of CGMs into WGP is a very promising and novel approach to improving prediction accuracy for some of the most challenging scenarios in plant breeding and applied genetics. PMID:26121133

Neural mechanisms to predict subjective level of fatigue in the future: a magnetoencephalography study

PubMed Central

Ishii, Akira; Tanaka, Masaaki; Watanabe, Yasuyoshi

2016-01-01

Fatigue is a major contributor to workplace accidents, morbidity, and mortality. To prevent the disruption of homeostasis and to concurrently accomplish an assigned workload, it is essential to control the level of workload based on the subjective estimation of the level of fatigue that will be experienced in the near future. In this study, we aimed to clarify the neural mechanisms related to predicting subjective levels of fatigue that would be experienced 60 min later, using magnetoencephalography. Sixteen healthy male volunteers participated in this study. In relation to the prediction, a decrease of alpha band power in the right Brodmann’s area (BA) 40 and BA 9 at 1200 to 1350 ms and that in the right BA 9 at 1350 to 1500 ms, and a decrease of gamma band power in the right BA 10 at 1500 to 1650 ms were observed. In addition, the decreased level of alpha band power in BA 9 at 1200 to 1350 ms was positively associated with the daily level of fatigue. These findings may help increase our understanding of the neural mechanisms activated to indicate the need to take a rest based on the prediction of the subjective fatigue in the future. PMID:27112115

Theoretical Considerations for Improving the Pulse Power of a Battery through the Addition of a Second Electrochemically Active Material

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Knehr, K. W.; West, Alan C.

Here, porous electrode theory is used to conduct case studies for when the addition of a second electrochemically active material can improve the pulse-power performance of an electrode. Case studies are conducted for the positive electrode of a sodium metal-halide battery and the graphite negative electrode of a lithium “rocking chair” battery. The replacement of a fraction of the nickel chloride capacity with iron chloride in a sodium metal-halide electrode and the replacement of a fraction of the graphite capacity with carbon black in a lithium-ion negative electrode were both predicted to increase the maximum pulse power by up tomore » 40%. In general, whether or not a second electrochemically active material increases the pulse power depends on the relative importance of ohmic-to-charge transfer resistances within the porous structure, the capacity fraction of the second electrochemically active material, and the kinetic and thermodynamic parameters of the two active materials.« less

Theoretical Considerations for Improving the Pulse Power of a Battery through the Addition of a Second Electrochemically Active Material

DOE PAGES

Knehr, K. W.; West, Alan C.

2016-05-26

Here, porous electrode theory is used to conduct case studies for when the addition of a second electrochemically active material can improve the pulse-power performance of an electrode. Case studies are conducted for the positive electrode of a sodium metal-halide battery and the graphite negative electrode of a lithium “rocking chair” battery. The replacement of a fraction of the nickel chloride capacity with iron chloride in a sodium metal-halide electrode and the replacement of a fraction of the graphite capacity with carbon black in a lithium-ion negative electrode were both predicted to increase the maximum pulse power by up tomore » 40%. In general, whether or not a second electrochemically active material increases the pulse power depends on the relative importance of ohmic-to-charge transfer resistances within the porous structure, the capacity fraction of the second electrochemically active material, and the kinetic and thermodynamic parameters of the two active materials.« less

Ensemble Data Assimilation of Wind and Photovoltaic Power Information in the Convection-permitting High-Resolution Model COSMO-DE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Declair, Stefan; Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie; Potthast, Roland

2016-04-01

Determining the amount of weather dependent renewable energy is a demanding task for transmission system operators (TSOs) and wind and photovoltaic (PV) prediction errors require the use of reserve power, which generate costs and can - in extreme cases - endanger the security of supply. In the project EWeLiNE funded by the German government, the German Weather Service and the Fraunhofer Institute on Wind Energy and Energy System Technology develop innovative weather- and power forecasting models and tools for grid integration of weather dependent renewable energy. The key part in energy prediction process chains is the numerical weather prediction (NWP) system. Wind speed and irradiation forecast from NWP system are however subject to several sources of error. The quality of the wind power prediction is mainly penalized by forecast error of the NWP model in the planetary boundary layer (PBL), which is characterized by high spatial and temporal fluctuations of the wind speed. For PV power prediction, weaknesses of the NWP model to correctly forecast i.e. low stratus, the absorption of condensed water or aerosol optical depth are the main sources of errors. Inaccurate radiation schemes (i.e. the two-stream parametrization) are also known as a deficit of NWP systems with regard to irradiation forecast. To mitigate errors like these, NWP model data can be corrected by post-processing techniques such as model output statistics and calibration using historical observational data. Additionally, latest observations can be used in a pre-processing technique called data assimilation (DA). In DA, not only the initial fields are provided, but the model is also synchronized with reality - the observations - and hence the model error is reduced in the forecast. Besides conventional observation networks like radiosondes, synoptic observations or air reports of wind, pressure and humidity, the number of observations measuring meteorological information indirectly such as satellite radiances, radar reflectivities or GPS slant delays strongly increases. The numerous wind farm and PV plants installed in Germany potentially represent a dense meteorological network assessing irradiation and wind speed through their power measurements. The accuracy of the NWP data may thus be enhanced by extending the observations in the assimilation by this new source of information. Wind power data can serve as indirect measurements of wind speed at hub height. The impact on the NWP model is potentially interesting since conventional observation network lacks measurements in this part of the PBL. Photovoltaic power plants can provide information on clouds, aerosol optical depth or low stratus in terms of remote sensing: the power output is strongly dependent on perturbations along the slant between sun position and PV panel. Additionally, since the latter kind of data is not limited to the vertical column above or below the detector. It may thus complement satellite data and compensate weaknesses in the radiation scheme. In this contribution, the DA method (Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter, LETKF) is shortly sketched. Furthermore, the computation of the model power equivalents is described and first assimilation results are presented and discussed.

Adaptive neuro-fuzzy and expert systems for power quality analysis and prediction of abnormal operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, Wael Refaat Anis

The present research involves the development of several fuzzy expert systems for power quality analysis and diagnosis. Intelligent systems for the prediction of abnormal system operation were also developed. The performance of all intelligent modules developed was either enhanced or completely produced through adaptive fuzzy learning techniques. Neuro-fuzzy learning is the main adaptive technique utilized. The work presents a novel approach to the interpretation of power quality from the perspective of the continuous operation of a single system. The research includes an extensive literature review pertaining to the applications of intelligent systems to power quality analysis. Basic definitions and signature events related to power quality are introduced. In addition, detailed discussions of various artificial intelligence paradigms as well as wavelet theory are included. A fuzzy-based intelligent system capable of identifying normal from abnormal operation for a given system was developed. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy learning was applied to enhance its performance. A group of fuzzy expert systems that could perform full operational diagnosis were also developed successfully. The developed systems were applied to the operational diagnosis of 3-phase induction motors and rectifier bridges. A novel approach for learning power quality waveforms and trends was developed. The technique, which is adaptive neuro fuzzy-based, learned, compressed, and stored the waveform data. The new technique was successfully tested using a wide variety of power quality signature waveforms, and using real site data. The trend-learning technique was incorporated into a fuzzy expert system that was designed to predict abnormal operation of a monitored system. The intelligent system learns and stores, in compressed format, trends leading to abnormal operation. The system then compares incoming data to the retained trends continuously. If the incoming data matches any of the learned trends, an alarm is instigated predicting the advent of system abnormal operation. The incoming data could be compared to previous trends as well as matched to trends developed through computer simulations and stored using fuzzy learning.

Integrated digital/electric aircraft concepts study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cronin, M. J.; Hays, A. P.; Green, F. B.; Radovcich, N. A.; Helsley, C. W.; Rutchik, W. L.

1985-01-01

The integrated digital/electrical aircraft (IDEA) is an aircraft concept which employs all electric secondary power systems and advanced digital flight control systems. After trade analysis, preferred systems were applied to the baseline configuration. An additional configuration, the alternate IDEA, was also considered. For this concept the design ground rules were relaxed in order to quantify additional synergistic benefits. It was proposed that an IDEA configuration and technical risks associated with the IDEA systems concepts be defined and the research and development required activities to reduce these risks be identified. The selected subsystems include: power generation, power distribution, actuators, environmental control system and flight controls systems. When the aircraft was resized, block fuel was predicted to decrease by 11.3 percent, with 7.9 percent decrease in direct operating cost. The alternate IDEA shows a further 3.4 percent reduction in block fuel and 3.1 percent reduction in direct operating cost.

A proposed method for electronic feedback compensation of damping in ferromagnetic resonance

DOE PAGES

Zohar, S.; Sterbinsky, G. E.

2017-07-10

Here, we propose an experimental technique for extending feedback compensation of dissipative radiation used in nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) to encompass ferromagnetic resonance (FMR). This method uses a balanced microwave power detector whose output is phase shifted π/2, amplified, and fed back to drive precession. Using classical control theory, we predict an electronically controllable narrowing of field swept FMR line-widths. This technique is predicted to compensate other sources of spin dissipation in addition to radiative loss.

A proposed method for electronic feedback compensation of damping in ferromagnetic resonance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zohar, S.; Sterbinsky, G. E.

2017-12-01

We propose an experimental technique for extending feedback compensation of dissipative radiation used in nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) to encompass ferromagnetic resonance (FMR). This method uses a balanced microwave power detector whose output is phase shifted π / 2 , amplified, and fed back to drive precession. Using classical control theory, we predict an electronically controllable narrowing of field swept FMR line-widths. This technique is predicted to compensate other sources of spin dissipation in addition to radiative loss.

Discrete Element Model for Simulations of Early-Life Thermal Fracturing Behaviors in Ceramic Nuclear Fuel Pellets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hai Huang; Ben Spencer; Jason Hales

2014-10-01

A discrete element Model (DEM) representation of coupled solid mechanics/fracturing and heat conduction processes has been developed and applied to explicitly simulate the random initiations and subsequent propagations of interacting thermal cracks in a ceramic nuclear fuel pellet during initial rise to power and during power cycles. The DEM model clearly predicts realistic early-life crack patterns including both radial cracks and circumferential cracks. Simulation results clearly demonstrate the formation of radial cracks during the initial power rise, and formation of circumferential cracks as the power is ramped down. In these simulations, additional early-life power cycles do not lead to themore » formation of new thermal cracks. They do, however clearly indicate changes in the apertures of thermal cracks during later power cycles due to thermal expansion and shrinkage. The number of radial cracks increases with increasing power, which is consistent with the experimental observations.« less

Power, distress, and compassion: turning a blind eye to the suffering of others.

PubMed

van Kleef, Gerben A; Oveis, Christopher; van der Löwe, Ilmo; LuoKogan, Aleksandr; Goetz, Jennifer; Keltner, Dacher

2008-12-01

Responses to individuals who suffer are a foundation of cooperative communities. On the basis of the approach/inhibition theory of power (Keltner, Gruenfeld, & Anderson, 2003), we hypothesized that elevated social power is associated with diminished reciprocal emotional responses to another person's suffering (feeling distress at another person's distress) and with diminished complementary emotion (e.g., compassion). In face-to-face conversations, participants disclosed experiences that had caused them suffering. As predicted, participants with a higher sense of power experienced less distress and less compassion and exhibited greater autonomic emotion regulation when confronted with another participant's suffering. Additional analyses revealed that these findings could not be attributed to power-related differences in baseline emotion or decoding accuracy, but were likely shaped by power-related differences in the motivation to affiliate. Implications for theorizing about power and the social functions of emotions are discussed.

Increasing power generation in horizontal axis wind turbines using optimized flow control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooney, John A., Jr.

In order to effectively realize future goals for wind energy, the efficiency of wind turbines must increase beyond existing technology. One direct method for achieving increased efficiency is by improving the individual power generation characteristics of horizontal axis wind turbines. The potential for additional improvement by traditional approaches is diminishing rapidly however. As a result, a research program was undertaken to assess the potential of using distributed flow control to increase power generation. The overall objective was the development of validated aerodynamic simulations and flow control approaches to improve wind turbine power generation characteristics. BEM analysis was conducted for a general set of wind turbine models encompassing last, current, and next generation designs. This analysis indicated that rotor lift control applied in Region II of the turbine power curve would produce a notable increase in annual power generated. This was achieved by optimizing induction factors along the rotor blade for maximum power generation. In order to demonstrate this approach and other advanced concepts, the University of Notre Dame established the Laboratory for Enhanced Wind Energy Design (eWiND). This initiative includes a fully instrumented meteorological tower and two pitch-controlled wind turbines. The wind turbines are representative in their design and operation to larger multi-megawatt turbines, but of a scale that allows rotors to be easily instrumented and replaced to explore new design concepts. Baseline data detailing typical site conditions and turbine operation is presented. To realize optimized performance, lift control systems were designed and evaluated in CFD simulations coupled with shape optimization tools. These were integrated into a systematic design methodology involving BEM simulations, CFD simulations and shape optimization, and selected experimental validation. To refine and illustrate the proposed design methodology, a complete design cycle was performed for the turbine model incorporated in the wind energy lab. Enhanced power generation was obtained through passive trailing edge shaping aimed at reaching lift and lift-to-drag goals predicted to optimize performance. These targets were determined by BEM analysis to improve power generation characteristics and annual energy production (AEP) for the wind turbine. A preliminary design was validated in wind tunnel experiments on a 2D rotor section in preparation for testing in the full atmospheric environment of the eWiND Laboratory. These tests were performed for the full-scale geometry and atmospheric conditions. Upon making additional improvements to the shape optimization tools, a series of trailing edge additions were designed to optimize power generation. The trailing edge additions were predicted to increase the AEP by up to 4.2% at the White Field site. The pieces were rapid-prototyped and installed on the wind turbine in March, 2014. Field tests are ongoing.

Development and validation of a shared decision-making instrument for health-related quality of life one year after total hip replacement based on quality registries data.

PubMed

Nemes, Szilard; Rolfson, Ola; Garellick, Göran

2018-02-01

Clinicians considering improvements in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) after total hip replacement (THR) must account for multiple pieces of information. Evidence-based decisions are important to best assess the effect of THR on HRQoL. This work aims at constructing a shared decision-making tool that helps clinicians assessing the future benefits of THR by offering predictions of 1-year postoperative HRQoL of THR patients. We used data from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register. Data from 2008 were used as training set and data from 2009 to 2012 as validation set. We adopted two approaches. First, we assumed a continuous distribution for the EQ-5D index and modelled the postoperative EQ-5D index with regression models. Second, we modelled the five dimensions of the EQ-5D and weighted together the predictions using the UK Time Trade-Off value set. As predictors, we used preoperative EQ-5D dimensions and the EQ-5D index, EQ visual analogue scale, visual analogue scale pain, Charnley classification, age, gender, body mass index, American Society of Anesthesiologists, surgical approach and prosthesis type. Additionally, the tested algorithms were combined in a single predictive tool by stacking. Best predictive power was obtained by the multivariate adaptive regression splines (R 2  = 0.158). However, this was not significantly better than the predictive power of linear regressions (R 2  = 0.157). The stacked model had a predictive power of 17%. Successful implementation of a shared decision-making tool that can aid clinicians and patients in understanding expected improvement in HRQoL following THR would require higher predictive power than we achieved. For a shared decision-making tool to succeed, further variables, such as socioeconomics, need to be considered. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Power management and distribution considerations for a lunar base

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenny, Barbara H.; Coleman, Anthony S.

1991-01-01

Design philosophies and technology needs for the power management and distribution (PMAD) portion of a lunar base power system are discussed. A process is described whereby mission planners may proceed from a knowledge of the PMAD functions and mission performance requirements to a definition of design options and technology needs. Current research efforts at the NASA LRC to meet the PMAD system needs for a Lunar base are described. Based on the requirements, the lunar base PMAD is seen as best being accomplished by a utility like system, although with some additional demands including autonomous operation and scheduling and accurate, predictive modeling during the design process.

Evolving biomarkers improve prediction of long-term mortality in patients with stable coronary artery disease: the BIO-VILCAD score.

PubMed

Kleber, M E; Goliasch, G; Grammer, T B; Pilz, S; Tomaschitz, A; Silbernagel, G; Maurer, G; März, W; Niessner, A

2014-08-01

Algorithms to predict the future long-term risk of patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) are rare. The VIenna and Ludwigshafen CAD (VILCAD) risk score was one of the first scores specifically tailored for this clinically important patient population. The aim of this study was to refine risk prediction in stable CAD creating a new prediction model encompassing various pathophysiological pathways. Therefore, we assessed the predictive power of 135 novel biomarkers for long-term mortality in patients with stable CAD. We included 1275 patients with stable CAD from the LUdwigshafen RIsk and Cardiovascular health study with a median follow-up of 9.8 years to investigate whether the predictive power of the VILCAD score could be improved by the addition of novel biomarkers. Additional biomarkers were selected in a bootstrapping procedure based on Cox regression to determine the most informative predictors of mortality. The final multivariable model encompassed nine clinical and biochemical markers: age, sex, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), heart rate, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, cystatin C, renin, 25OH-vitamin D3 and haemoglobin A1c. The extended VILCAD biomarker score achieved a significantly improved C-statistic (0.78 vs. 0.73; P = 0.035) and net reclassification index (14.9%; P < 0.001) compared to the original VILCAD score. Omitting LVEF, which might not be readily measureable in clinical practice, slightly reduced the accuracy of the new BIO-VILCAD score but still significantly improved risk classification (net reclassification improvement 12.5%; P < 0.001). The VILCAD biomarker score based on routine parameters complemented by novel biomarkers outperforms previous risk algorithms and allows more accurate classification of patients with stable CAD, enabling physicians to choose more personalized treatment regimens for their patients.

Prediction of the far field noise from wind energy farms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, K. P.; Hubbard, H. H.

1986-01-01

The basic physical factors involved in making predictions of wind turbine noise and an approach which allows for differences in the machines, the wind energy farm configurations and propagation conditions are reviewed. Example calculations to illustrate the sensitivity of the radiated noise to such variables as machine size, spacing and numbers, and such atmosphere variables as absorption and wind direction are presented. It is found that calculated far field distances to particular sound level contours are greater for lower values of atmospheric absorption, for a larger total number of machines, for additional rows of machines and for more powerful machines. At short and intermediate distances, higher sound pressure levels are calculated for closer machine spacings, for more powerful machines, for longer row lengths and for closer row spacings.

The impact of response measurement error on the analysis of designed experiments

DOE PAGES

Anderson-Cook, Christine Michaela; Hamada, Michael Scott; Burr, Thomas Lee

2016-11-01

This study considers the analysis of designed experiments when there is measurement error in the true response or so-called response measurement error. We consider both additive and multiplicative response measurement errors. Through a simulation study, we investigate the impact of ignoring the response measurement error in the analysis, that is, by using a standard analysis based on t-tests. In addition, we examine the role of repeat measurements in improving the quality of estimation and prediction in the presence of response measurement error. We also study a Bayesian approach that accounts for the response measurement error directly through the specification ofmore » the model, and allows including additional information about variability in the analysis. We consider the impact on power, prediction, and optimization. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.« less

The impact of response measurement error on the analysis of designed experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson-Cook, Christine Michaela; Hamada, Michael Scott; Burr, Thomas Lee

This study considers the analysis of designed experiments when there is measurement error in the true response or so-called response measurement error. We consider both additive and multiplicative response measurement errors. Through a simulation study, we investigate the impact of ignoring the response measurement error in the analysis, that is, by using a standard analysis based on t-tests. In addition, we examine the role of repeat measurements in improving the quality of estimation and prediction in the presence of response measurement error. We also study a Bayesian approach that accounts for the response measurement error directly through the specification ofmore » the model, and allows including additional information about variability in the analysis. We consider the impact on power, prediction, and optimization. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.« less

Predictive analysis of beer quality by correlating sensory evaluation with higher alcohol and ester production using multivariate statistics methods.

PubMed

Dong, Jian-Jun; Li, Qing-Liang; Yin, Hua; Zhong, Cheng; Hao, Jun-Guang; Yang, Pan-Fei; Tian, Yu-Hong; Jia, Shi-Ru

2014-10-15

Sensory evaluation is regarded as a necessary procedure to ensure a reproducible quality of beer. Meanwhile, high-throughput analytical methods provide a powerful tool to analyse various flavour compounds, such as higher alcohol and ester. In this study, the relationship between flavour compounds and sensory evaluation was established by non-linear models such as partial least squares (PLS), genetic algorithm back-propagation neural network (GA-BP), support vector machine (SVM). It was shown that SVM with a Radial Basis Function (RBF) had a better performance of prediction accuracy for both calibration set (94.3%) and validation set (96.2%) than other models. Relatively lower prediction abilities were observed for GA-BP (52.1%) and PLS (31.7%). In addition, the kernel function of SVM played an essential role of model training when the prediction accuracy of SVM with polynomial kernel function was 32.9%. As a powerful multivariate statistics method, SVM holds great potential to assess beer quality. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Data collapse and critical dynamics in neuronal avalanche data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, Thomas; Friedman, Nir; Dahmen, Karin; Beggs, John; Deville, Lee; Ito, Shinya

2012-02-01

The tasks of information processing, computation, and response to stimuli require neural computation to be remarkably flexible and diverse. To optimally satisfy the demands of neural computation, neuronal networks have been hypothesized to operate near a non-equilibrium critical point. In spite of their importance for neural dynamics, experimental evidence for critical dynamics has been primarily limited to power law statistics that can also emerge from non-critical mechanisms. By tracking the firing of large numbers of synaptically connected cortical neurons and comparing the resulting data to the predictions of critical phenomena, we show that cortical tissues in vitro can function near criticality. Among the most striking predictions of critical dynamics is that the mean temporal profiles of avalanches of widely varying durations are quantitatively described by a single universal scaling function (data collapse). We show for the first time that this prediction is confirmed in neuronal networks. We also show that the data have three additional features predicted by critical phenomena: approximate power law distributions of avalanche sizes and durations, samples in subcritical and supercritical phases, and scaling laws between anomalous exponents.

Very-short-term wind power prediction by a hybrid model with single- and multi-step approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

2017-05-01

Very-short-term wind power prediction (VSTWPP) has played an essential role for the operation of electric power systems. This paper aims at improving and applying a hybrid method of VSTWPP based on historical data. The hybrid method is combined by multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), which is intended for reducing prediction errors. The predicted values are obtained through two sub-processes:1) transform the time-series data of actual wind power into the power ratio, and then predict the power ratio;2) use the predicted power ratio to predict the wind power. Besides, the proposed method can include two prediction approaches: single-step prediction (SSP) and multi-step prediction (MSP). WPP is tested comparatively by auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model from the predicted values and errors. The validity of the proposed hybrid method is confirmed in terms of error analysis by using probability density function (PDF), mean absolute percent error (MAPE) and means square error (MSE). Meanwhile, comparison of the correlation coefficients between the actual values and the predicted values for different prediction times and window has confirmed that MSP approach by using the hybrid model is the most accurate while comparing to SSP approach and ARMA. The MLR&LS is accurate and promising for solving problems in WPP.

Do Cognitive Models Help in Predicting the Severity of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder, Phobia, and Depression After Motor Vehicle Accidents? A Prospective Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Ehring, Thomas; Ehlers, Anke; Glucksman, Edward

2008-01-01

The study investigated the power of theoretically derived cognitive variables to predict posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), travel phobia, and depression following injury in a motor vehicle accident (MVA). MVA survivors (N = 147) were assessed at the emergency department on the day of their accident and 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months later. Diagnoses were established with the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM–IV. Predictors included initial symptom severities; variables established as predictors of PTSD in E. J. Ozer, S. R. Best, T. L. Lipsey, and D. S. Weiss's (2003) meta-analysis; and variables derived from cognitive models of PTSD, phobia, and depression. Results of nonparametric multiple regression analyses showed that the cognitive variables predicted subsequent PTSD and depression severities over and above what could be predicted from initial symptom levels. They also showed greater predictive power than the established predictors, although the latter showed similar effect sizes as in the meta-analysis. In addition, the predictors derived from cognitive models of PTSD and depression were disorder-specific. The results support the role of cognitive factors in the maintenance of emotional disorders following trauma. PMID:18377119

Complexity of cardiac signals for predicting changes in alpha-waves after stress in patients undergoing cardiac catheterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, Hung-Chih; Lin, Yen-Hung; Lo, Men-Tzung; Tang, Sung-Chun; Wang, Tzung-Dau; Lu, Hung-Chun; Ho, Yi-Lwun; Ma, Hsi-Pin; Peng, Chung-Kang

2015-08-01

The hierarchical interaction between electrical signals of the brain and heart is not fully understood. We hypothesized that the complexity of cardiac electrical activity can be used to predict changes in encephalic electricity after stress. Most methods for analyzing the interaction between the heart rate variability (HRV) and electroencephalography (EEG) require a computation-intensive mathematical model. To overcome these limitations and increase the predictive accuracy of human relaxing states, we developed a method to test our hypothesis. In addition to routine linear analysis, multiscale entropy and detrended fluctuation analysis of the HRV were used to quantify nonstationary and nonlinear dynamic changes in the heart rate time series. Short-time Fourier transform was applied to quantify the power of EEG. The clinical, HRV, and EEG parameters of postcatheterization EEG alpha waves were analyzed using change-score analysis and generalized additive models. In conclusion, the complexity of cardiac electrical signals can be used to predict EEG changes after stress.

Complexity of cardiac signals for predicting changes in alpha-waves after stress in patients undergoing cardiac catheterization

PubMed Central

Chiu, Hung-Chih; Lin, Yen-Hung; Lo, Men-Tzung; Tang, Sung-Chun; Wang, Tzung-Dau; Lu, Hung-Chun; Ho, Yi-Lwun; Ma, Hsi-Pin; Peng, Chung-Kang

2015-01-01

The hierarchical interaction between electrical signals of the brain and heart is not fully understood. We hypothesized that the complexity of cardiac electrical activity can be used to predict changes in encephalic electricity after stress. Most methods for analyzing the interaction between the heart rate variability (HRV) and electroencephalography (EEG) require a computation-intensive mathematical model. To overcome these limitations and increase the predictive accuracy of human relaxing states, we developed a method to test our hypothesis. In addition to routine linear analysis, multiscale entropy and detrended fluctuation analysis of the HRV were used to quantify nonstationary and nonlinear dynamic changes in the heart rate time series. Short-time Fourier transform was applied to quantify the power of EEG. The clinical, HRV, and EEG parameters of postcatheterization EEG alpha waves were analyzed using change-score analysis and generalized additive models. In conclusion, the complexity of cardiac electrical signals can be used to predict EEG changes after stress. PMID:26286628

Eruption Mechanisms for Loki, Io: Inferences Based on Galileo and Groundbased Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rathbun, J. A.; Spencer, J. R.; Davies, A. G.; Howell, R. R.

2001-01-01

A wealth of data about Loki, the most powerful volcano on Io, has been collected and here, we try to begin synthesis of these data. These data suggest periodic lava lake overturn. Further, these eruptions may be truly periodic, and therefore predictable. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Additivity and Interactions in Ecotoxicity of Pollutant Mixtures: Some Patterns, Conclusions, and Open Questions

PubMed Central

Rodea-Palomares, Ismael; González-Pleiter, Miguel; Martín-Betancor, Keila; Rosal, Roberto; Fernández-Piñas, Francisca

2015-01-01

Understanding the effects of exposure to chemical mixtures is a common goal of pharmacology and ecotoxicology. In risk assessment-oriented ecotoxicology, defining the scope of application of additivity models has received utmost attention in the last 20 years, since they potentially allow one to predict the effect of any chemical mixture relying on individual chemical information only. The gold standard for additivity in ecotoxicology has demonstrated to be Loewe additivity which originated the so-called Concentration Addition (CA) additivity model. In pharmacology, the search for interactions or deviations from additivity (synergism and antagonism) has similarly captured the attention of researchers over the last 20 years and has resulted in the definition and application of the Combination Index (CI) Theorem. CI is based on Loewe additivity, but focused on the identification and quantification of synergism and antagonism. Despite additive models demonstrating a surprisingly good predictive power in chemical mixture risk assessment, concerns still exist due to the occurrence of unpredictable synergism or antagonism in certain experimental situations. In the present work, we summarize the parallel history of development of CA, IA, and CI models. We also summarize the applicability of these concepts in ecotoxicology and how their information may be integrated, as well as the possibility of prediction of synergism. Inside the box, the main question remaining is whether it is worthy to consider departures from additivity in mixture risk assessment and how to predict interactions among certain mixture components. Outside the box, the main question is whether the results observed under the experimental constraints imposed by fractional approaches are a de fide reflection of what it would be expected from chemical mixtures in real world circumstances. PMID:29051468

Comparison and integration of deleteriousness prediction methods for nonsynonymous SNVs in whole exome sequencing studies

PubMed Central

Dong, Chengliang; Wei, Peng; Jian, Xueqiu; Gibbs, Richard; Boerwinkle, Eric; Wang, Kai; Liu, Xiaoming

2015-01-01

Accurate deleteriousness prediction for nonsynonymous variants is crucial for distinguishing pathogenic mutations from background polymorphisms in whole exome sequencing (WES) studies. Although many deleteriousness prediction methods have been developed, their prediction results are sometimes inconsistent with each other and their relative merits are still unclear in practical applications. To address these issues, we comprehensively evaluated the predictive performance of 18 current deleteriousness-scoring methods, including 11 function prediction scores (PolyPhen-2, SIFT, MutationTaster, Mutation Assessor, FATHMM, LRT, PANTHER, PhD-SNP, SNAP, SNPs&GO and MutPred), 3 conservation scores (GERP++, SiPhy and PhyloP) and 4 ensemble scores (CADD, PON-P, KGGSeq and CONDEL). We found that FATHMM and KGGSeq had the highest discriminative power among independent scores and ensemble scores, respectively. Moreover, to ensure unbiased performance evaluation of these prediction scores, we manually collected three distinct testing datasets, on which no current prediction scores were tuned. In addition, we developed two new ensemble scores that integrate nine independent scores and allele frequency. Our scores achieved the highest discriminative power compared with all the deleteriousness prediction scores tested and showed low false-positive prediction rate for benign yet rare nonsynonymous variants, which demonstrated the value of combining information from multiple orthologous approaches. Finally, to facilitate variant prioritization in WES studies, we have pre-computed our ensemble scores for 87 347 044 possible variants in the whole-exome and made them publicly available through the ANNOVAR software and the dbNSFP database. PMID:25552646

Solar Field Optical Characterization at Stillwater Geothermal/Solar Hybrid Plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Guangdong; Turchi, Craig

Concentrating solar power (CSP) can provide additional thermal energy to boost geothermal plant power generation. For a newly constructed solar field at a geothermal power plant site, it is critical to properly characterize its performance so that the prediction of thermal power generation can be derived to develop an optimum operating strategy for a hybrid system. In the past, laboratory characterization of a solar collector has often extended into the solar field performance model and has been used to predict the actual solar field performance, disregarding realistic impacting factors. In this work, an extensive measurement on mirror slope error andmore » receiver position error has been performed in the field by using the optical characterization tool called Distant Observer (DO). Combining a solar reflectance sampling procedure, a newly developed solar characterization program called FirstOPTIC and public software for annual performance modeling called System Advisor Model (SAM), a comprehensive solar field optical characterization has been conducted, thus allowing for an informed prediction of solar field annual performance. The paper illustrates this detailed solar field optical characterization procedure and demonstrates how the results help to quantify an appropriate tracking-correction strategy to improve solar field performance. In particular, it is found that an appropriate tracking-offset algorithm can improve the solar field performance by about 15%. The work here provides a valuable reference for the growing CSP industry.« less

Solar Field Optical Characterization at Stillwater Geothermal/Solar Hybrid Plant

DOE PAGES

Zhu, Guangdong; Turchi, Craig

2017-01-27

Concentrating solar power (CSP) can provide additional thermal energy to boost geothermal plant power generation. For a newly constructed solar field at a geothermal power plant site, it is critical to properly characterize its performance so that the prediction of thermal power generation can be derived to develop an optimum operating strategy for a hybrid system. In the past, laboratory characterization of a solar collector has often extended into the solar field performance model and has been used to predict the actual solar field performance, disregarding realistic impacting factors. In this work, an extensive measurement on mirror slope error andmore » receiver position error has been performed in the field by using the optical characterization tool called Distant Observer (DO). Combining a solar reflectance sampling procedure, a newly developed solar characterization program called FirstOPTIC and public software for annual performance modeling called System Advisor Model (SAM), a comprehensive solar field optical characterization has been conducted, thus allowing for an informed prediction of solar field annual performance. The paper illustrates this detailed solar field optical characterization procedure and demonstrates how the results help to quantify an appropriate tracking-correction strategy to improve solar field performance. In particular, it is found that an appropriate tracking-offset algorithm can improve the solar field performance by about 15%. The work here provides a valuable reference for the growing CSP industry.« less

Piezoelectric Power Requirements for Active Vibration Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brennan, Matthew C.; McGowan, Anna-Maria Rivas

1997-01-01

This paper presents a method for predicting the power consumption of piezoelectric actuators utilized for active vibration control. Analytical developments and experimental tests show that the maximum power required to control a structure using surface-bonded piezoelectric actuators is independent of the dynamics between the piezoelectric actuator and the host structure. The results demonstrate that for a perfectly-controlled system, the power consumption is a function of the quantity and type of piezoelectric actuators and the voltage and frequency of the control law output signal. Furthermore, as control effectiveness decreases, the power consumption of the piezoelectric actuators decreases. In addition, experimental results revealed a non-linear behavior in the material properties of piezoelectric actuators. The material non- linearity displayed a significant increase in capacitance with an increase in excitation voltage. Tests show that if the non-linearity of the capacitance was accounted for, a conservative estimate of the power can easily be determined.

Assessment and evaluation of noise controls on roof bolting equipment and a method for predicting sound pressure levels in underground coal mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matetic, Rudy J.

Over-exposure to noise remains a widespread and serious health hazard in the U.S. mining industries despite 25 years of regulation. Every day, 80% of the nation's miners go to work in an environment where the time weighted average (TWA) noise level exceeds 85 dBA and more than 25% of the miners are exposed to a TWA noise level that exceeds 90 dBA, the permissible exposure limit (PEL). Additionally, MSHA coal noise sample data collected from 2000 to 2002 show that 65% of the equipment whose operators exceeded 100% noise dosage comprise only seven different types of machines; auger miners, bulldozers, continuous miners, front end loaders, roof bolters, shuttle cars (electric), and trucks. In addition, the MSHA data indicate that the roof bolter is third among all the equipment and second among equipment in underground coal whose operators exceed 100% dosage. A research program was implemented to: (1) determine, characterize and to measure sound power levels radiated by a roof bolting machine during differing drilling configurations (thrust, rotational speed, penetration rate, etc.) and utilizing differing types of drilling methods in high compressive strength rock media (>20,000 psi). The research approach characterized the sound power level results from laboratory testing and provided the mining industry with empirical data relative to utilizing differing noise control technologies (drilling configurations and types of drilling methods) in reducing sound power level emissions on a roof bolting machine; (2) distinguish and correlate the empirical data into one, statistically valid, equation, in which, provided the mining industry with a tool to predict overall sound power levels of a roof bolting machine given any type of drilling configuration and drilling method utilized in industry; (3) provided the mining industry with several approaches to predict or determine sound pressure levels in an underground coal mine utilizing laboratory test results from a roof bolting machine and (4) described a method for determining an operators' noise dosage of a roof bolting machine utilizing predicted or determined sound pressure levels.

Gaussian process-based surrogate modeling framework for process planning in laser powder-bed fusion additive manufacturing of 316L stainless steel

DOE PAGES

Tapia, Gustavo; Khairallah, Saad A.; Matthews, Manyalibo J.; ...

2017-09-22

Here, Laser Powder-Bed Fusion (L-PBF) metal-based additive manufacturing (AM) is complex and not fully understood. Successful processing for one material, might not necessarily apply to a different material. This paper describes a workflow process that aims at creating a material data sheet standard that describes regimes where the process can be expected to be robust. The procedure consists of building a Gaussian process-based surrogate model of the L-PBF process that predicts melt pool depth in single-track experiments given a laser power, scan speed, and laser beam size combination. The predictions are then mapped onto a power versus scan speed diagrammore » delimiting the conduction from the keyhole melting controlled regimes. This statistical framework is shown to be robust even for cases where experimental training data might be suboptimal in quality, if appropriate physics-based filters are applied. Additionally, it is demonstrated that a high-fidelity simulation model of L-PBF can equally be successfully used for building a surrogate model, which is beneficial since simulations are getting more efficient and are more practical to study the response of different materials, than to re-tool an AM machine for new material powder.« less

Gaussian process-based surrogate modeling framework for process planning in laser powder-bed fusion additive manufacturing of 316L stainless steel

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tapia, Gustavo; Khairallah, Saad A.; Matthews, Manyalibo J.

Here, Laser Powder-Bed Fusion (L-PBF) metal-based additive manufacturing (AM) is complex and not fully understood. Successful processing for one material, might not necessarily apply to a different material. This paper describes a workflow process that aims at creating a material data sheet standard that describes regimes where the process can be expected to be robust. The procedure consists of building a Gaussian process-based surrogate model of the L-PBF process that predicts melt pool depth in single-track experiments given a laser power, scan speed, and laser beam size combination. The predictions are then mapped onto a power versus scan speed diagrammore » delimiting the conduction from the keyhole melting controlled regimes. This statistical framework is shown to be robust even for cases where experimental training data might be suboptimal in quality, if appropriate physics-based filters are applied. Additionally, it is demonstrated that a high-fidelity simulation model of L-PBF can equally be successfully used for building a surrogate model, which is beneficial since simulations are getting more efficient and are more practical to study the response of different materials, than to re-tool an AM machine for new material powder.« less

Comparison of the economic impact of different wind power forecast systems for producers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandrini, S.; Davò, F.; Sperati, S.; Benini, M.; Delle Monache, L.

2014-05-01

Deterministic forecasts of wind production for the next 72 h at a single wind farm or at the regional level are among the main end-users requirement. However, for an optimal management of wind power production and distribution it is important to provide, together with a deterministic prediction, a probabilistic one. A deterministic forecast consists of a single value for each time in the future for the variable to be predicted, while probabilistic forecasting informs on probabilities for potential future events. This means providing information about uncertainty (i.e. a forecast of the PDF of power) in addition to the commonly provided single-valued power prediction. A significant probabilistic application is related to the trading of energy in day-ahead electricity markets. It has been shown that, when trading future wind energy production, using probabilistic wind power predictions can lead to higher benefits than those obtained by using deterministic forecasts alone. In fact, by using probabilistic forecasting it is possible to solve economic model equations trying to optimize the revenue for the producer depending, for example, on the specific penalties for forecast errors valid in that market. In this work we have applied a probabilistic wind power forecast systems based on the "analog ensemble" method for bidding wind energy during the day-ahead market in the case of a wind farm located in Italy. The actual hourly income for the plant is computed considering the actual selling energy prices and penalties proportional to the unbalancing, defined as the difference between the day-ahead offered energy and the actual production. The economic benefit of using a probabilistic approach for the day-ahead energy bidding are evaluated, resulting in an increase of 23% of the annual income for a wind farm owner in the case of knowing "a priori" the future energy prices. The uncertainty on price forecasting partly reduces the economic benefit gained by using a probabilistic energy forecast system.

Spur-Gear-System Efficiency at Part and Full Load

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, N. E.; Loewenthal, S. H.

1980-01-01

A simple method for predicting the part- and full-load power loss of a steel spur gearset of arbitrary geometry supported by ball bearings is described. The analysis algebraically accounts for losses due to gear sliding, rolling traction, and windage in addition to support-ball-bearing losses. The analysis compares favorably with test data. A theoretical comparison of the component losses indicates that losses due to gear rolling traction, windage, and support bearings are significant and should be included along with gear sliding loss in a calculation of gear-system power loss.

Received optical power calculations for optical communications link performance analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marshall, W. K.; Burk, B. D.

1986-01-01

The factors affecting optical communication link performance differ substantially from those at microwave frequencies, due to the drastically differing technologies, modulation formats, and effects of quantum noise in optical communications. In addition detailed design control table calculations for optical systems are less well developed than corresponding microwave system techniques, reflecting the relatively less mature state of development of optical communications. Described below are detailed calculations of received optical signal and background power in optical communication systems, with emphasis on analytic models for accurately predicting transmitter and receiver system losses.

Transport phenomena governing nicotine emissions from electronic cigarettes: model formulation and experimental investigation

PubMed Central

Talih, Soha; Balhas, Zainab; Salman, Rola; El-Hage, Rachel; Karaoghlanian, Nareg; El-Hellani, Ahmad; Baassiri, Mohamad; Jaroudi, Ezzat; Eissenberg, Thomas; Saliba, Najat; Shihadeh, Alan

2017-01-01

Electronic cigarettes (ECIGs) electrically heat and aerosolize a liquid containing propylene glycol (PG), vegetable glycerin (VG), flavorants, water, and nicotine. ECIG effects and proposed methods to regulate them are controversial. One regulatory focal point involves nicotine emissions. We describe a mathematical model that predicts ECIG nicotine emissions. The model computes the vaporization rate of individual species by numerically solving the unsteady species and energy conservation equations. To validate model predictions, yields of nicotine, total particulate matter, PG, and VG were measured while manipulating puff topography, electrical power, and liquid composition across 100 conditions. Nicotine flux, the rate at which nicotine is emitted per unit time, was the primary outcome. Across conditions, the measured and computed nicotine flux were highly correlated (r = 0.85, p<.0001). As predicted, device power, nicotine concentration, PG/VG ratio, and puff duration influenced nicotine flux (p<.05), while water content and puff velocity did not. Additional empirical investigation revealed that PG/VG liquids act as ideal solutions, that liquid vaporization accounts for more than 95% of ECIG aerosol mass emissions, and that as device power increases the aerosol composition shifts towards the less volatile components of the parent liquid. To the extent that ECIG regulations focus on nicotine emissions, mathematical models like this one can be used to predict ECIG nicotine emissions and to test the effects of proposed regulation of factors that influence nicotine flux. PMID:28706340

Wind power application research on the fusion of the determination and ensemble prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lan, Shi; Lina, Xu; Yuzhu, Hao

2017-07-01

The fused product of wind speed for the wind farm is designed through the use of wind speed products of ensemble prediction from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and professional numerical model products on wind power based on Mesoscale Model5 (MM5) and Beijing Rapid Update Cycle (BJ-RUC), which are suitable for short-term wind power forecasting and electric dispatch. The single-valued forecast is formed by calculating the different ensemble statistics of the Bayesian probabilistic forecasting representing the uncertainty of ECMWF ensemble prediction. Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to improve the time resolution of the single-valued forecast, and based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and the deterministic numerical model prediction, the optimal wind speed forecasting curve and the confidence interval are provided. The result shows that the fusion forecast has made obvious improvement to the accuracy relative to the existing numerical forecasting products. Compared with the 0-24 h existing deterministic forecast in the validation period, the mean absolute error (MAE) is decreased by 24.3 % and the correlation coefficient (R) is increased by 12.5 %. In comparison with the ECMWF ensemble forecast, the MAE is reduced by 11.7 %, and R is increased 14.5 %. Additionally, MAE did not increase with the prolongation of the forecast ahead.

The Interrelationships of Mathematical Precursors in Kindergarten

PubMed Central

Cirino, Paul T.

2011-01-01

This study evaluated the interrelations among cognitive precursors across quantitative, linguistic, and spatial attention domains that have been implicated for math achievement in young children. The dimensionality of the quantity precursors was evaluated in 286 Kindergarteners via latent variable techniques, and the contribution of precursors from each domain was established for small sums addition. Results showed a five factor structure for the quantity precursors with the major distinction between nonsymbolic and symbolic tasks. The overall model demonstrated good fit, and strong predictive power (R2 = 55%) for addition number combinations. Linguistic and spatial attention domains showed indirect relationships with outcomes, with their effects mediated by symbolic quantity measures. These results have implications for the measurement of mathematical precursors, and yield promise for predicting future math performance. PMID:21194711

Heart rate variability measured early in patients with evolving acute coronary syndrome and 1-year outcomes of rehospitalization and mortality.

PubMed

Harris, Patricia R E; Stein, Phyllis K; Fung, Gordon L; Drew, Barbara J

2014-01-01

This study sought to examine the prognostic value of heart rate variability (HRV) measurement initiated immediately after emergency department presentation for patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Altered HRV has been associated with adverse outcomes in heart disease, but the value of HRV measured during the earliest phases of ACS related to risk of 1-year rehospitalization and death has not been established. Twenty-four-hour Holter recordings of 279 patients with ACS were initiated within 45 minutes of emergency department arrival; recordings with ≥18 hours of sinus rhythm were selected for HRV analysis (number [N] =193). Time domain, frequency domain, and nonlinear HRV were examined. Survival analysis was performed. During the 1-year follow-up, 94 patients were event-free, 82 were readmitted, and 17 died. HRV was altered in relation to outcomes. Predictors of rehospitalization included increased normalized high frequency power, decreased normalized low frequency power, and decreased low/high frequency ratio. Normalized high frequency >42 ms(2) predicted rehospitalization while controlling for clinical variables (hazard ratio [HR] =2.3; 95% confidence interval [CI] =1.4-3.8, P=0.001). Variables significantly associated with death included natural logs of total power and ultra low frequency power. A model with ultra low frequency power <8 ms(2) (HR =3.8; 95% CI =1.5-10.1; P=0.007) and troponin >0.3 ng/mL (HR =4.0; 95% CI =1.3-12.1; P=0.016) revealed that each contributed independently in predicting mortality. Nonlinear HRV variables were significant predictors of both outcomes. HRV measured close to the ACS onset may assist in risk stratification. HRV cut-points may provide additional, incremental prognostic information to established assessment guidelines, and may be worthy of additional study.

Validation of finite element and boundary element methods for predicting structural vibration and radiated noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seybert, A. F.; Wu, X. F.; Oswald, Fred B.

1992-01-01

Analytical and experimental validation of methods to predict structural vibration and radiated noise are presented. A rectangular box excited by a mechanical shaker was used as a vibrating structure. Combined finite element method (FEM) and boundary element method (BEM) models of the apparatus were used to predict the noise radiated from the box. The FEM was used to predict the vibration, and the surface vibration was used as input to the BEM to predict the sound intensity and sound power. Vibration predicted by the FEM model was validated by experimental modal analysis. Noise predicted by the BEM was validated by sound intensity measurements. Three types of results are presented for the total radiated sound power: (1) sound power predicted by the BEM modeling using vibration data measured on the surface of the box; (2) sound power predicted by the FEM/BEM model; and (3) sound power measured by a sound intensity scan. The sound power predicted from the BEM model using measured vibration data yields an excellent prediction of radiated noise. The sound power predicted by the combined FEM/BEM model also gives a good prediction of radiated noise except for a shift of the natural frequencies that are due to limitations in the FEM model.

Potential efficiencies of open- and closed-cycle CO, supersonic, electric-discharge lasers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Monson, D. J.

1976-01-01

Computed open- and closed-cycle system efficiencies (laser power output divided by electrical power input) are presented for a CW carbon monoxide, supersonic, electric-discharge laser. Closed-system results include the compressor power required to overcome stagnation pressure losses due to supersonic heat addition and a supersonic diffuser. The paper shows the effect on the system efficiencies of varying several important parameters. These parameters include: gas mixture, gas temperature, gas total temperature, gas density, total discharge energy loading, discharge efficiency, saturated gain coefficient, optical cavity size and location with respect to the discharge, and supersonic diffuser efficiency. Maximum open-cycle efficiency of 80-90% is predicted; the best closed-cycle result is 60-70%.

Online Analysis of Wind and Solar Part I: Ramping Tool

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Makarov, Yuri V.

2012-01-31

To facilitate wider penetration of renewable resources without compromising system reliability concerns arising from the lack of predictability of intermittent renewable resources, a tool for use by California Independent System Operator (CAISO) power grid operators was developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) in conjunction with CAISO with funding from California Energy Commission. This tool predicts and displays additional capacity and ramping requirements caused by uncertainties in forecasts of loads and renewable generation. The tool is currently operational in the CAISO operations center. This is one of two final reports on the project.

Predictive importance of anthropometric and training data in recreational male Ironman triathletes and marathon runners: comment on the study by Gianoli, et al. (2012).

PubMed

Burtscher, Martin; Gatterer, Hannes

2013-04-01

Anthropometric and training data have been reported as statistically significant predictors of race performance in endurance events. However, it is well established that physiological characteristics, i.e., maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max), the use of a high percentage of VO2max during sustained exercise, and work efficiency are predominant predictors of performance in those events. Thus, the essential issue is whether the anthropometric and training data give additional predictive power beyond these other measures.

Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Thermal Power Model in Thermal Desktop SINDA/FLUINT Analyzer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Xiao-Yen; Fabanich, William A.; Schmitz, Paul C.

2012-01-01

This paper presents a three-dimensional Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) thermal power model that was built using the Thermal Desktop SINDA/FLUINT thermal analyzer. The model was correlated with ASRG engineering unit (EU) test data and ASRG flight unit predictions from Lockheed Martin's Ideas TMG thermal model. ASRG performance under (1) ASC hot-end temperatures, (2) ambient temperatures, and (3) years of mission for the general purpose heat source fuel decay was predicted using this model for the flight unit. The results were compared with those reported by Lockheed Martin and showed good agreement. In addition, the model was used to study the performance of the ASRG flight unit for operations on the ground and on the surface of Titan, and the concept of using gold film to reduce thermal loss through insulation was investigated.

Predictors of Sustained Implementation of School-Wide Positive Behavioral Interventions and Supports

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McIntosh, Kent; Mercer, Sterett H.; Nese, Rhonda N. T.; Strickland-Cohen, M. Kathleen; Hoselton, Robert

2016-01-01

In this analysis of extant data from 3,011 schools implementing school-wide positive behavioral interventions and supports (SWPBIS) across multiple years, we assessed the predictive power of various school characteristics and speed of initial implementation on sustained fidelity of implementation of SWPBIS at 1, 3, and 5 years. In addition, we…

Modifying Bagnold's Sediment Transport Equation for Use in Watershed-Scale Channel Incision Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lammers, R. W.; Bledsoe, B. P.

2016-12-01

Destabilized stream channels may evolve through a sequence of stages, initiated by bed incision and followed by bank erosion and widening. Channel incision can be modeled using Exner-type mass balance equations, but model accuracy is limited by the accuracy and applicability of the selected sediment transport equation. Additionally, many sediment transport relationships require significant data inputs, limiting their usefulness in data-poor environments. Bagnold's empirical relationship for bedload transport is attractive because it is based on stream power, a relatively straightforward parameter to estimate using remote sensing data. However, the equation is also dependent on flow depth, which is more difficult to measure or estimate for entire drainage networks. We recast Bagnold's original sediment transport equation using specific discharge in place of flow depth. Using a large dataset of sediment transport rates from the literature, we show that this approach yields similar predictive accuracy as other stream power based relationships. We also explore the applicability of various critical stream power equations, including Bagnold's original, and support previous conclusions that these critical values can be predicted well based solely on sediment grain size. In addition, we propagate error in these sediment transport equations through channel incision modeling to compare the errors associated with our equation to alternative formulations. This new version of Bagnold's bedload transport equation has utility for channel incision modeling at larger spatial scales using widely available and remote sensing data.

Optimal Parameter Selection for Support Vector Machine Based on Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm: A Case Study of Grid-Connected PV System Power Prediction.

PubMed

Gao, Xiang-Ming; Yang, Shi-Feng; Pan, San-Bo

2017-01-01

Predicting the output power of photovoltaic system with nonstationarity and randomness, an output power prediction model for grid-connected PV systems is proposed based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and support vector machine (SVM) optimized with an artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm. First, according to the weather forecast data sets on the prediction date, the time series data of output power on a similar day with 15-minute intervals are built. Second, the time series data of the output power are decomposed into a series of components, including some intrinsic mode components IMFn and a trend component Res, at different scales using EMD. The corresponding SVM prediction model is established for each IMF component and trend component, and the SVM model parameters are optimized with the artificial bee colony algorithm. Finally, the prediction results of each model are reconstructed, and the predicted values of the output power of the grid-connected PV system can be obtained. The prediction model is tested with actual data, and the results show that the power prediction model based on the EMD and ABC-SVM has a faster calculation speed and higher prediction accuracy than do the single SVM prediction model and the EMD-SVM prediction model without optimization.

Optimal Parameter Selection for Support Vector Machine Based on Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm: A Case Study of Grid-Connected PV System Power Prediction

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Predicting the output power of photovoltaic system with nonstationarity and randomness, an output power prediction model for grid-connected PV systems is proposed based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and support vector machine (SVM) optimized with an artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm. First, according to the weather forecast data sets on the prediction date, the time series data of output power on a similar day with 15-minute intervals are built. Second, the time series data of the output power are decomposed into a series of components, including some intrinsic mode components IMFn and a trend component Res, at different scales using EMD. The corresponding SVM prediction model is established for each IMF component and trend component, and the SVM model parameters are optimized with the artificial bee colony algorithm. Finally, the prediction results of each model are reconstructed, and the predicted values of the output power of the grid-connected PV system can be obtained. The prediction model is tested with actual data, and the results show that the power prediction model based on the EMD and ABC-SVM has a faster calculation speed and higher prediction accuracy than do the single SVM prediction model and the EMD-SVM prediction model without optimization. PMID:28912803

Experimental study on thrust and power of flapping-wing system based on rack-pinion mechanism.

PubMed

Nguyen, Tuan Anh; Vu Phan, Hoang; Au, Thi Kim Loan; Park, Hoon Cheol

2016-06-20

This experimental study investigates the effect of three parameters: wing aspect ratio (AR), wing offset, and flapping frequency, on thrust generation and power consumption of a flapping-wing system based on a rack-pinion mechanism. The new flapping-wing system is simple but robust, and is able to create a large flapping amplitude. The thrust measured by a load cell reveals that for a given power, the flapping-wing system using a higher wing AR produces larger thrust and higher flapping frequency at the wing offset of 0.15[Formula: see text] or 0.20[Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text] is the mean chord) than other wing offsets. Of the three parameters, the flapping frequency plays a more significant role on thrust generation than either the wing AR or the wing offset. Based on the measured thrusts, an empirical equation for thrust prediction is suggested, as a function of wing area, flapping frequency, flapping angle, and wing AR. The difference between the predicted and measured thrusts was less than 7%, which proved that the empirical equation for thrust prediction is reasonable. On average, the measured power consumption to flap the wings shows that 46.5% of the input power is spent to produce aerodynamic forces, 14.0% to overcome inertia force, 9.5% to drive the rack-pinion-based flapping mechanism, and 30.0% is wasted as the power loss of the installed motor. From the power analysis, it is found that the wing with an AR of 2.25 using a wing offset of 0.20[Formula: see text] showed the optimal power loading in the flapping-wing system. In addition, the flapping frequency of 25 Hz is recommended as the optimal frequency of the current flapping-wing system for high efficiency, which was 48.3%, using a wing with an AR of 2.25 and a wing offset of 0.20[Formula: see text] in the proposed design.

Multisensory stimuli elicit altered oscillatory brain responses at gamma frequencies in patients with schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Stone, David B.; Coffman, Brian A.; Bustillo, Juan R.; Aine, Cheryl J.; Stephen, Julia M.

2014-01-01

Deficits in auditory and visual unisensory responses are well documented in patients with schizophrenia; however, potential abnormalities elicited from multisensory audio-visual stimuli are less understood. Further, schizophrenia patients have shown abnormal patterns in task-related and task-independent oscillatory brain activity, particularly in the gamma frequency band. We examined oscillatory responses to basic unisensory and multisensory stimuli in schizophrenia patients (N = 46) and healthy controls (N = 57) using magnetoencephalography (MEG). Time-frequency decomposition was performed to determine regions of significant changes in gamma band power by group in response to unisensory and multisensory stimuli relative to baseline levels. Results showed significant behavioral differences between groups in response to unisensory and multisensory stimuli. In addition, time-frequency analysis revealed significant decreases and increases in gamma-band power in schizophrenia patients relative to healthy controls, which emerged both early and late over both sensory and frontal regions in response to unisensory and multisensory stimuli. Unisensory gamma-band power predicted multisensory gamma-band power differently by group. Furthermore, gamma-band power in these regions predicted performance in select measures of the Measurement and Treatment Research to Improve Cognition in Schizophrenia (MATRICS) test battery differently by group. These results reveal a unique pattern of task-related gamma-band power in schizophrenia patients relative to controls that may indicate reduced inhibition in combination with impaired oscillatory mechanisms in patients with schizophrenia. PMID:25414652

Spherotoric bag-in-the-lens intraocular lens: power calculation and predictive misalignment nomogram.

PubMed

Gobin, Laure; Tassignon, Marie-José; Mathysen, Danny

2011-06-01

To propose a method of calculating the power of the 1-sided posterior chamber toric bag-in-the-lens (BIL) intraocular lens (IOL) and propose a misalignment nomogram to calculate the postoperative rotational misalignment or predict the effect of preoperative existing irregular corneal astigmatism. Antwerp University Hospital, Department of Ophthalmology, Antwerp, Belgium. Cohort study. The new IOL calculation formula uses the steepest corneal meridian and flattest corneal meridian separately (regular spherical IOL formula) followed by a customized A-constant approach based on the changes in the IOL principal plane depending on the spherical and cylindrical powers (thickness) of the IOL. The calculation of the remaining astigmatism (power and axis) in cases of postoperative rotational misalignment resulted in a nomogram that can also be used to predict the degree of tolerance for irregular corneal astigmatism correction at the lenticular plane. The calculation is performed using a worksheet. Because 10 degrees of misalignment would result in 35% refractive inaccuracy, it is the maximum acceptable corneal astigmatic irregularity for correction at the lenticular plane. Calculation of spherocylindrical power is specific to each toric IOL. Because the surgeon must fully understand the optical properties of the toric IOL that is going to be implanted, a comprehensive outline of a new calculation method specific to the toric BIL IOL is proposed. Primary rotational misalignment of the toric BIL IOL can be fine tuned postoperatively. Drs. Gobin and Mathysen have no financial or proprietary interest in any material or method mentioned. Additional disclosures are found in the footnotes. Copyright © 2011 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gaussian Process Regression for Predictive But Interpretable Machine Learning Models: An Example of Predicting Mental Workload across Tasks

PubMed Central

Caywood, Matthew S.; Roberts, Daniel M.; Colombe, Jeffrey B.; Greenwald, Hal S.; Weiland, Monica Z.

2017-01-01

There is increasing interest in real-time brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) for the passive monitoring of human cognitive state, including cognitive workload. Too often, however, effective BCIs based on machine learning techniques may function as “black boxes” that are difficult to analyze or interpret. In an effort toward more interpretable BCIs, we studied a family of N-back working memory tasks using a machine learning model, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), which was both powerful and amenable to analysis. Participants performed the N-back task with three stimulus variants, auditory-verbal, visual-spatial, and visual-numeric, each at three working memory loads. GPR models were trained and tested on EEG data from all three task variants combined, in an effort to identify a model that could be predictive of mental workload demand regardless of stimulus modality. To provide a comparison for GPR performance, a model was additionally trained using multiple linear regression (MLR). The GPR model was effective when trained on individual participant EEG data, resulting in an average standardized mean squared error (sMSE) between true and predicted N-back levels of 0.44. In comparison, the MLR model using the same data resulted in an average sMSE of 0.55. We additionally demonstrate how GPR can be used to identify which EEG features are relevant for prediction of cognitive workload in an individual participant. A fraction of EEG features accounted for the majority of the model’s predictive power; using only the top 25% of features performed nearly as well as using 100% of features. Subsets of features identified by linear models (ANOVA) were not as efficient as subsets identified by GPR. This raises the possibility of BCIs that require fewer model features while capturing all of the information needed to achieve high predictive accuracy. PMID:28123359

Kicking Back Cognitive Ageing: Leg Power Predicts Cognitive Ageing after Ten Years in Older Female Twins

PubMed Central

Steves, Claire J.; Mehta, Mitul M.; Jackson, Stephen H.D.; Spector, Tim D.

2016-01-01

Background Many observational studies have shown a protective effect of physical activity on cognitive ageing, but interventional studies have been less convincing. This may be due to short time scales of interventions, suboptimal interventional regimes or lack of lasting effect. Confounding through common genetic and developmental causes is also possible. Objectives We aimed to test whether muscle fitness (measured by leg power) could predict cognitive change in a healthy older population over a 10-year time interval, how this performed alongside other predictors of cognitive ageing, and whether this effect was confounded by factors shared by twins. In addition, we investigated whether differences in leg power were predictive of differences in brain structure and function after 12 years of follow-up in identical twin pairs. Methods A total of 324 healthy female twins (average age at baseline 55, range 43-73) performed the Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery (CANTAB) at two time points 10 years apart. Linear regression modelling was used to assess the relationships between baseline leg power, physical activity and subsequent cognitive change, adjusting comprehensively for baseline covariates (including heart disease, diabetes, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, lipids, diet, body habitus, smoking and alcohol habits, reading IQ, socioeconomic status and birthweight). A discordant twin approach was used to adjust for factors shared by twins. A subset of monozygotic pairs then underwent magnetic resonance imaging. The relationship between muscle fitness and brain structure and function was assessed using linear regression modelling and paired t tests. Results A striking protective relationship was found between muscle fitness (leg power) and both 10-year cognitive change [fully adjusted model standardised β-coefficient (Stdβ) = 0.174, p = 0.002] and subsequent total grey matter (Stdβ = 0.362, p = 0.005). These effects were robust in discordant twin analyses, where within-pair difference in physical fitness was also predictive of within-pair difference in lateral ventricle size. There was a weak independent effect of self-reported physical activity. Conclusion Leg power predicts both cognitive ageing and global brain structure, despite controlling for common genetics and early life environment shared by twins. Interventions targeted to improve leg power in the long term may help reach a universal goal of healthy cognitive ageing. PMID:26551663

Kicking Back Cognitive Ageing: Leg Power Predicts Cognitive Ageing after Ten Years in Older Female Twins.

PubMed

Steves, Claire J; Mehta, Mitul M; Jackson, Stephen H D; Spector, Tim D

2016-01-01

Many observational studies have shown a protective effect of physical activity on cognitive ageing, but interventional studies have been less convincing. This may be due to short time scales of interventions, suboptimal interventional regimes or lack of lasting effect. Confounding through common genetic and developmental causes is also possible. We aimed to test whether muscle fitness (measured by leg power) could predict cognitive change in a healthy older population over a 10-year time interval, how this performed alongside other predictors of cognitive ageing, and whether this effect was confounded by factors shared by twins. In addition, we investigated whether differences in leg power were predictive of differences in brain structure and function after 12 years of follow-up in identical twin pairs. A total of 324 healthy female twins (average age at baseline 55, range 43-73) performed the Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery (CANTAB) at two time points 10 years apart. Linear regression modelling was used to assess the relationships between baseline leg power, physical activity and subsequent cognitive change, adjusting comprehensively for baseline covariates (including heart disease, diabetes, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, lipids, diet, body habitus, smoking and alcohol habits, reading IQ, socioeconomic status and birthweight). A discordant twin approach was used to adjust for factors shared by twins. A subset of monozygotic pairs then underwent magnetic resonance imaging. The relationship between muscle fitness and brain structure and function was assessed using linear regression modelling and paired t tests. A striking protective relationship was found between muscle fitness (leg power) and both 10-year cognitive change [fully adjusted model standardised β-coefficient (Stdβ) = 0.174, p = 0.002] and subsequent total grey matter (Stdβ = 0.362, p = 0.005). These effects were robust in discordant twin analyses, where within-pair difference in physical fitness was also predictive of within-pair difference in lateral ventricle size. There was a weak independent effect of self-reported physical activity. Leg power predicts both cognitive ageing and global brain structure, despite controlling for common genetics and early life environment shared by twins. Interventions targeted to improve leg power in the long term may help reach a universal goal of healthy cognitive ageing. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.

Designing novel Sn-Bi, Si-C and Ge-C nanostructures, using simple theoretical chemical similarities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zdetsis, Aristides D.

2011-04-01

A framework of simple, transparent and powerful concepts is presented which is based on isoelectronic (or isovalent) principles, analogies, regularities and similarities. These analogies could be considered as conceptual extensions of the periodical table of the elements, assuming that two atoms or molecules having the same number of valence electrons would be expected to have similar or homologous properties. In addition, such similar moieties should be able, in principle, to replace each other in more complex structures and nanocomposites. This is only partly true and only occurs under certain conditions which are investigated and reviewed here. When successful, these concepts are very powerful and transparent, leading to a large variety of nanomaterials based on Si and other group 14 elements, similar to well known and well studied analogous materials based on boron and carbon. Such nanomaterias designed in silico include, among many others, Si-C, Sn-Bi, Si-C and Ge-C clusters, rings, nanowheels, nanorodes, nanocages and multidecker sandwiches, as well as silicon planar rings and fullerenes similar to the analogous sp2 bonding carbon structures. It is shown that this pedagogically simple and transparent framework can lead to an endless variety of novel and functional nanomaterials with important potential applications in nanotechnology, nanomedicine and nanobiology. Some of the so called predicted structures have been already synthesized, not necessarily with the same rational and motivation. Finally, it is anticipated that such powerful and transparent rules and analogies, in addition to their predictive power, could also lead to far-reaching interpretations and a deeper understanding of already known results and information.

Designing novel Sn-Bi, Si-C and Ge-C nanostructures, using simple theoretical chemical similarities.

PubMed

Zdetsis, Aristides D

2011-04-27

A framework of simple, transparent and powerful concepts is presented which is based on isoelectronic (or isovalent) principles, analogies, regularities and similarities. These analogies could be considered as conceptual extensions of the periodical table of the elements, assuming that two atoms or molecules having the same number of valence electrons would be expected to have similar or homologous properties. In addition, such similar moieties should be able, in principle, to replace each other in more complex structures and nanocomposites. This is only partly true and only occurs under certain conditions which are investigated and reviewed here. When successful, these concepts are very powerful and transparent, leading to a large variety of nanomaterials based on Si and other group 14 elements, similar to well known and well studied analogous materials based on boron and carbon. Such nanomaterias designed in silico include, among many others, Si-C, Sn-Bi, Si-C and Ge-C clusters, rings, nanowheels, nanorodes, nanocages and multidecker sandwiches, as well as silicon planar rings and fullerenes similar to the analogous sp2 bonding carbon structures. It is shown that this pedagogically simple and transparent framework can lead to an endless variety of novel and functional nanomaterials with important potential applications in nanotechnology, nanomedicine and nanobiology. Some of the so called predicted structures have been already synthesized, not necessarily with the same rational and motivation. Finally, it is anticipated that such powerful and transparent rules and analogies, in addition to their predictive power, could also lead to far-reaching interpretations and a deeper understanding of already known results and information.

On the Path to SunShot: Advancing Concentrating Solar Power Technology Performance and Dispatchability.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mehos, Mark; Turchi, Craig; Jorgensen, Jennie

2016-03-01

Since the SunShot Vision Study (DOE 2012) was published, global deployment of concentrating solar power (CSP) has increased threefold to nearly 4,500 MW, with a similar threefold increase in operational capacity to 1,650 MW within the United States. Growth in U.S. CSP capacity has primarily been driven by policy support at the state and federal levels. State-driven renewable portfolio standards (RPSs), combined with a 30% federal investment tax credit (ITC) and federal loan guarantees, provided the opportunity for CSP developers to kick-start construction of CSP plants throughout the Southwest. Figure ES-1 demonstrates that deployment and private- and public-sector research andmore » development have led to dramatic cost reductions that have placed CSP well on the path to reaching the U.S. Department of Energy’s SunShot Initiative goal of 6 cents/kWh by 2020. In comparing the estimated capital costs from the SunShot Vision Study and the current analysis, we find that parabolic trough solar-field costs have fallen more rapidly than predicted, although the drop in solar-field costs was offset by the additional costs of moving from a wet-cooled power block in 2010 to a more expensive dry-cooled power block in 2015. The predicted 2015 decline in tower costs was in line with expectations, primarily driven by reduced heliostat costs. Figure ES-1 shows the reduction in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for both parabolic trough and tower systems, in addition to the projected 2020 SunShot target.« less

Developing strategies for predicting hyperkalemia in potassium-increasing drug-drug interactions.

PubMed

Eschmann, Emmanuel; Beeler, Patrick Emanuel; Schneemann, Markus; Blaser, Jürg

2017-01-01

To compare different strategies predicting hyperkalemia (serum potassium level ≥5.5 mEq/l) in hospitalized patients for whom medications triggering potassium-increasing drug-drug interactions (DDIs) were ordered. We investigated 5 strategies that combined prediction triggered at onset of DDI versus continuous monitoring and taking into account an increasing number of patient parameters. The considered patient parameters were identified using generalized additive models, and the thresholds of the prediction strategies were calculated by applying Youden's J statistic to receiver operation characteristic curves. Half of the data served as the calibration set, half as the validation set. We identified 132 incidences of hyperkalemia induced by 8413 potentially severe potassium-increasing DDIs among 76 467 patients. The positive predictive value (PPV) of those strategies predicting hyperkalemia at the onset of DDI ranged from 1.79% (undifferentiated anticipation of hyperkalemia due to the DDI) to 3.02% (additionally considering the baseline serum potassium) and 3.10% (including further patient parameters). Continuous monitoring significantly increased the PPV to 8.25% (considering the current serum potassium) and 9.34% (additional patient parameters). Continuous monitoring of the risk for hyperkalemia based on current potassium level shows a better predictive power than predictions triggered at the onset of DDI. This contrasts with efforts to improve DDI alerts by taking into account more patient parameters at the time of ordering. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Unsteady propulsion by an intermittent swimming gait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akoz, Emre; Moored, Keith W.

2018-01-01

Inviscid computational results are presented on a self-propelled swimmer modeled as a virtual body combined with a two-dimensional hydrofoil pitching intermittently about its leading edge. Lighthill (1971) originally proposed that this burst-and-coast behavior can save fish energy during swimming by taking advantage of the viscous Bone-Lighthill boundary layer thinning mechanism. Here, an additional inviscid Garrick mechanism is discovered that allows swimmers to control the ratio of their added mass thrust-producing forces to their circulatory drag-inducing forces by decreasing their duty cycle, DC, of locomotion. This mechanism can save intermittent swimmers as much as 60% of the energy it takes to swim continuously at the same speed. The inviscid energy savings are shown to increase with increasing amplitude of motion, increase with decreasing Lighthill number, Li, and switch to an energetic cost above continuous swimming for sufficiently low DC. Intermittent swimmers are observed to shed four vortices per cycle that form into groups that are self-similar with the DC. In addition, previous thrust and power scaling laws of continuous self-propelled swimming are further generalized to include intermittent swimming. The key is that by averaging the thrust and power coefficients over only the bursting period then the intermittent problem can be transformed into a continuous one. Furthermore, the intermittent thrust and power scaling relations are extended to predict the mean speed and cost of transport of swimmers. By tuning a few coefficients with a handful of simulations these self-propelled relations can become predictive. In the current study, the mean speed and cost of transport are predicted to within 3% and 18% of their full-scale values by using these relations.

Selenide isotope generator for the Galileo mission. SIG/Galileo contract compliance power prediction technique

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hammel, T.E.; Srinivas, V.

1978-11-01

This initial definition of the power degradation prediction technique outlines a model for predicting SIG/Galileo mean EOM power using component test data and data from a module power degradation demonstration test program. (LCL)

Effect of genetic architecture on the prediction accuracy of quantitative traits in samples of unrelated individuals.

PubMed

Morgante, Fabio; Huang, Wen; Maltecca, Christian; Mackay, Trudy F C

2018-06-01

Predicting complex phenotypes from genomic data is a fundamental aim of animal and plant breeding, where we wish to predict genetic merits of selection candidates; and of human genetics, where we wish to predict disease risk. While genomic prediction models work well with populations of related individuals and high linkage disequilibrium (LD) (e.g., livestock), comparable models perform poorly for populations of unrelated individuals and low LD (e.g., humans). We hypothesized that low prediction accuracies in the latter situation may occur when the genetics architecture of the trait departs from the infinitesimal and additive architecture assumed by most prediction models. We used simulated data for 10,000 lines based on sequence data from a population of unrelated, inbred Drosophila melanogaster lines to evaluate this hypothesis. We show that, even in very simplified scenarios meant as a stress test of the commonly used Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (G-BLUP) method, using all common variants yields low prediction accuracy regardless of the trait genetic architecture. However, prediction accuracy increases when predictions are informed by the genetic architecture inferred from mapping the top variants affecting main effects and interactions in the training data, provided there is sufficient power for mapping. When the true genetic architecture is largely or partially due to epistatic interactions, the additive model may not perform well, while models that account explicitly for interactions generally increase prediction accuracy. Our results indicate that accounting for genetic architecture can improve prediction accuracy for quantitative traits.

Heat pipe cooling of power processing magnetics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, I. G.; Chester, M.

1979-01-01

The constant demand for increased power and reduced mass has raised the internal temperature of conventionally cooled power magnetics toward the upper limit of acceptability. The conflicting demands of electrical isolation, mechanical integrity, and thermal conductivity preclude significant further advancements using conventional approaches. However, the size and mass of multikilowatt power processing systems may be further reduced by the incorporation of heat pipe cooling directly into the power magnetics. Additionally, by maintaining lower more constant temperatures, the life and reliability of the magnetic devices will be improved. A heat pipe cooled transformer and input filter have been developed for the 2.4 kW beam supply of a 30-cm ion thruster system. This development yielded a mass reduction of 40% (1.76 kg) and lower mean winding temperature (20 C lower). While these improvements are significant, preliminary designs predict even greater benefits to be realized at higher power. This paper presents the design details along with the results of thermal vacuum operation and the component performance in a 3 kW breadboard power processor.

Dynamic power balance analysis in JET

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, G. F.; Silburn, S. A.; Challis, C. D.; Eich, T.; Iglesias, D.; King, D.; Sieglin, B.; Contributors, JET

2017-12-01

The full scale realisation of nuclear fusion as an energy source requires a detailed understanding of power and energy balance in current experimental devices. In this we explore whether a global power balance model in which some of the calibration factors applied to the source or sink terms are fitted to the data can provide insight into possible causes of any discrepancies in power and energy balance seen in the JET tokamak. We show that the dynamics in the power balance can only be properly reproduced by including the changes in the thermal stored energy which therefore provides an additional opportunity to cross calibrate other terms in the power balance equation. Although the results are inconclusive with respect to the original goal of identifying the source of the discrepancies in the energy balance, we do find that with optimised parameters an extremely good prediction of the total power measured at the outer divertor target can be obtained over a wide range of pulses with time resolution up to ∼25 ms.

Statistical Modeling of Fire Occurrence Using Data from the Tōhoku, Japan Earthquake and Tsunami.

PubMed

Anderson, Dana; Davidson, Rachel A; Himoto, Keisuke; Scawthorn, Charles

2016-02-01

In this article, we develop statistical models to predict the number and geographic distribution of fires caused by earthquake ground motion and tsunami inundation in Japan. Using new, uniquely large, and consistent data sets from the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, we fitted three types of models-generalized linear models (GLMs), generalized additive models (GAMs), and boosted regression trees (BRTs). This is the first time the latter two have been used in this application. A simple conceptual framework guided identification of candidate covariates. Models were then compared based on their out-of-sample predictive power, goodness of fit to the data, ease of implementation, and relative importance of the framework concepts. For the ground motion data set, we recommend a Poisson GAM; for the tsunami data set, a negative binomial (NB) GLM or NB GAM. The best models generate out-of-sample predictions of the total number of ignitions in the region within one or two. Prefecture-level prediction errors average approximately three. All models demonstrate predictive power far superior to four from the literature that were also tested. A nonlinear relationship is apparent between ignitions and ground motion, so for GLMs, which assume a linear response-covariate relationship, instrumental intensity was the preferred ground motion covariate because it captures part of that nonlinearity. Measures of commercial exposure were preferred over measures of residential exposure for both ground motion and tsunami ignition models. This may vary in other regions, but nevertheless highlights the value of testing alternative measures for each concept. Models with the best predictive power included two or three covariates. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Distinct plasma lipids profiles of recurrent ovarian cancer by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry

PubMed Central

Li, Ang; Cheng, Jinlong; Yang, Kai; Wang, Jingtao; Wang, Wenjie; Zhang, Fan; Li, Zhenzi; Dhillon, Harman S.; Openkova, Margarita S; Zhou, Xiaohua; Li, Kang; Hou, Yan

2017-01-01

Epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is the most deadly gynecologic malignancy worldwide due to its high recurrence rate after surgery and chemotherapy. There is a critical need for discovery of novel biomarkers for EOC recurrence providing higher prediction power than that of the present ones. Lipids have been reported to associate with development and progression of cancer. In the current study, we aim to identify and validate the lipids which were relevant to the ovarian cancer recurrence based on plasma lipidomics performed by ultra-performance liquid chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry. In order to fulfill this objective, plasma from 70 EOC patients with follow up information was obtained. The results revealed that patients with and without recurrence could be clearly distinguished based on their lipid profiles. Thirty-one lipid metabolites were identified as potential biomarkers for EOC recurrence. The AUC value of these metabolite combinations for predicting EOC recurrence was 0.897. In terms of clinical applicability, LysoPG(20:5) arose as a potential EOC recurrence predictive biomarker to increase the predictive power of clinical predictors from AUC value 0.739 to 0.875. Additionally, we still found that individuals with early relapses (< 6 months) had a distinctive metabolomic pattern compared with late EOC and non-EOC recurrence subjects. Interestingly, decreased levels of triglycerides (TGs) were found to be a specific metabolic feature foreshadowing an early relapse. In conclusion, plasma lipidomics study could be used for predicting EOC recurrences, as well as early and late recurrent cases. The lipid biomarker research improves the predictive power of clinical predictors and the identified biomarkers are of great prognostic and therapeutic potential. PMID:27564116

Streptococcal upper respiratory tract infections and psychosocial stress predict future tic and obsessive-compulsive symptom severity in children and adolescents with Tourette syndrome and/or obsessive-compulsive disorder

PubMed Central

Lin, Haiqun; Williams, Kyle A.; Katsovich, Liliya; Findley, Diane B.; Grantz, Heidi; Lombroso, Paul J.; King, Robert A.; Bessen, Debra E.; Johnson, Dwight; Kaplan, Edward L.; Landeros-Weisenberger, Angeli; Zhang, Heping; Leckman, James F.

2009-01-01

Background: One goal of this prospective longitudinal study was to identify new group A beta hemolytic streptococcal (GABHS) infections in children and adolescents with Tourette syndrome (TS) and/or obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) compared to healthy control subjects. We then examined the power of GABHS infections and measures of psychosocial stress to predict future tic, obsessive-compulsive (OC), and depressive symptom severity. Methods: Consecutive ratings of tic, OC and depressive symptom severity were obtained for 45 cases and 41 matched control subjects over a two-year period. Clinical raters were blinded to the results of laboratory tests. Laboratory personnel were blinded to case or control status and clinical ratings. Structural equation modeling for unbalanced repeated measures was used to assess the sequence of new GABHS infections and psychosocial stress and their impact on future symptom severity. Results: Increases in tic and OC symptom severity did not occur after every new GABHS infection. However, the structural equation model found that these newly diagnosed infections were predictive of modest increases in future tic and OC symptom severity, but did not predict future depressive symptom severity. In addition, the inclusion of new infections in the model greatly enhanced, by a factor of three, the power of psychosocial stress in predicting future tic and OC symptom severity. Conclusions: Our data suggest that a minority of children with TS and early-onset OCD were sensitive to antecedent GABHS infections. These infections also enhanced the predictive power of current psychosocial stress on future tic and OC symptom severity. PMID:19833320

Power of data mining methods to detect genetic associations and interactions.

PubMed

Molinaro, Annette M; Carriero, Nicholas; Bjornson, Robert; Hartge, Patricia; Rothman, Nathaniel; Chatterjee, Nilanjan

2011-01-01

Genetic association studies, thus far, have focused on the analysis of individual main effects of SNP markers. Nonetheless, there is a clear need for modeling epistasis or gene-gene interactions to better understand the biologic basis of existing associations. Tree-based methods have been widely studied as tools for building prediction models based on complex variable interactions. An understanding of the power of such methods for the discovery of genetic associations in the presence of complex interactions is of great importance. Here, we systematically evaluate the power of three leading algorithms: random forests (RF), Monte Carlo logic regression (MCLR), and multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR). We use the algorithm-specific variable importance measures (VIMs) as statistics and employ permutation-based resampling to generate the null distribution and associated p values. The power of the three is assessed via simulation studies. Additionally, in a data analysis, we evaluate the associations between individual SNPs in pro-inflammatory and immunoregulatory genes and the risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The power of RF is highest in all simulation models, that of MCLR is similar to RF in half, and that of MDR is consistently the lowest. Our study indicates that the power of RF VIMs is most reliable. However, in addition to tuning parameters, the power of RF is notably influenced by the type of variable (continuous vs. categorical) and the chosen VIM. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Model Predictive Control of A Matrix-Converter Based Solid State Transformer for Utility Grid Interaction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xue, Yaosuo

The matrix converter solid state transformer (MC-SST), formed from the back-to-back connection of two three-to-single-phase matrix converters, is studied for use in the interconnection of two ac grids. The matrix converter topology provides a light weight and low volume single-stage bidirectional ac-ac power conversion without the need for a dc link. Thus, the lifetime limitations of dc-bus storage capacitors are avoided. However, space vector modulation of this type of MC-SST requires to compute vectors for each of the two MCs, which must be carefully coordinated to avoid commutation failure. An additional controller is also required to control power exchange betweenmore » the two ac grids. In this paper, model predictive control (MPC) is proposed for an MC-SST connecting two different ac power grids. The proposed MPC predicts the circuit variables based on the discrete model of MC-SST system and the cost function is formulated so that the optimal switch vector for the next sample period is selected, thereby generating the required grid currents for the SST. Simulation and experimental studies are carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness and simplicity of the proposed MPC for such MC-SST-based grid interfacing systems.« less

Beatquency domain and machine learning improve prediction of cardiovascular death after acute coronary syndrome.

PubMed

Liu, Yun; Scirica, Benjamin M; Stultz, Collin M; Guttag, John V

2016-10-06

Frequency domain measures of heart rate variability (HRV) are associated with adverse events after a myocardial infarction. However, patterns in the traditional frequency domain (measured in Hz, or cycles per second) may capture different cardiac phenomena at different heart rates. An alternative is to consider frequency with respect to heartbeats, or beatquency. We compared the use of frequency and beatquency domains to predict patient risk after an acute coronary syndrome. We then determined whether machine learning could further improve the predictive performance. We first evaluated the use of pre-defined frequency and beatquency bands in a clinical trial dataset (N = 2302) for the HRV risk measure LF/HF (the ratio of low frequency to high frequency power). Relative to frequency, beatquency improved the ability of LF/HF to predict cardiovascular death within one year (Area Under the Curve, or AUC, of 0.730 vs. 0.704, p < 0.001). Next, we used machine learning to learn frequency and beatquency bands with optimal predictive power, which further improved the AUC for beatquency to 0.753 (p < 0.001), but not for frequency. Results in additional validation datasets (N = 2255 and N = 765) were similar. Our results suggest that beatquency and machine learning provide valuable tools in physiological studies of HRV.

A Model-based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Celaya, Jose; Kulkarni, Chetan; Biswas, Gautam; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai

2011-01-01

A remaining useful life prediction methodology for electrolytic capacitors is presented. This methodology is based on the Kalman filter framework and an empirical degradation model. Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies on critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. These devices are known for their comparatively low reliability and given their criticality in electronics subsystems they are a good candidate for component level prognostics and health management. Prognostics provides a way to assess remaining useful life of a capacitor based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operational conditions. We present here also, experimental results of an accelerated aging test under electrical stresses. The data obtained in this test form the basis for a remaining life prediction algorithm where a model of the degradation process is suggested. This preliminary remaining life prediction algorithm serves as a demonstration of how prognostics methodologies could be used for electrolytic capacitors. In addition, the use degradation progression data from accelerated aging, provides an avenue for validation of applications of the Kalman filter based prognostics methods typically used for remaining useful life predictions in other applications.

Towards A Model-Based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors: A Case Study Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Celaya, Jose R.; Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Biswas, Gautam; Goebel, Kai

2012-01-01

A remaining useful life prediction methodology for electrolytic capacitors is presented. This methodology is based on the Kalman filter framework and an empirical degradation model. Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies on critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. These devices are known for their comparatively low reliability and given their criticality in electronics subsystems they are a good candidate for component level prognostics and health management. Prognostics provides a way to assess remaining useful life of a capacitor based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operational conditions. We present here also, experimental results of an accelerated aging test under electrical stresses. The data obtained in this test form the basis for a remaining life prediction algorithm where a model of the degradation process is suggested. This preliminary remaining life prediction algorithm serves as a demonstration of how prognostics methodologies could be used for electrolytic capacitors. In addition, the use degradation progression data from accelerated aging, provides an avenue for validation of applications of the Kalman filter based prognostics methods typically used for remaining useful life predictions in other applications.

Know Your Enemy: Successful Bioinformatic Approaches to Predict Functional RNA Structures in Viral RNAs.

PubMed

Lim, Chun Shen; Brown, Chris M

2017-01-01

Structured RNA elements may control virus replication, transcription and translation, and their distinct features are being exploited by novel antiviral strategies. Viral RNA elements continue to be discovered using combinations of experimental and computational analyses. However, the wealth of sequence data, notably from deep viral RNA sequencing, viromes, and metagenomes, necessitates computational approaches being used as an essential discovery tool. In this review, we describe practical approaches being used to discover functional RNA elements in viral genomes. In addition to success stories in new and emerging viruses, these approaches have revealed some surprising new features of well-studied viruses e.g., human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis C virus, influenza, and dengue viruses. Some notable discoveries were facilitated by new comparative analyses of diverse viral genome alignments. Importantly, comparative approaches for finding RNA elements embedded in coding and non-coding regions differ. With the exponential growth of computer power we have progressed from stem-loop prediction on single sequences to cutting edge 3D prediction, and from command line to user friendly web interfaces. Despite these advances, many powerful, user friendly prediction tools and resources are underutilized by the virology community.

Know Your Enemy: Successful Bioinformatic Approaches to Predict Functional RNA Structures in Viral RNAs

PubMed Central

Lim, Chun Shen; Brown, Chris M.

2018-01-01

Structured RNA elements may control virus replication, transcription and translation, and their distinct features are being exploited by novel antiviral strategies. Viral RNA elements continue to be discovered using combinations of experimental and computational analyses. However, the wealth of sequence data, notably from deep viral RNA sequencing, viromes, and metagenomes, necessitates computational approaches being used as an essential discovery tool. In this review, we describe practical approaches being used to discover functional RNA elements in viral genomes. In addition to success stories in new and emerging viruses, these approaches have revealed some surprising new features of well-studied viruses e.g., human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis C virus, influenza, and dengue viruses. Some notable discoveries were facilitated by new comparative analyses of diverse viral genome alignments. Importantly, comparative approaches for finding RNA elements embedded in coding and non-coding regions differ. With the exponential growth of computer power we have progressed from stem-loop prediction on single sequences to cutting edge 3D prediction, and from command line to user friendly web interfaces. Despite these advances, many powerful, user friendly prediction tools and resources are underutilized by the virology community. PMID:29354101

The Prediction of Botulinum Toxin Structure Based on in Silico and in Vitro Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Tomonori; Miyazaki, Satoru

2011-01-01

Many of biological system mediated through protein-protein interactions. Knowledge of protein-protein complex structure is required for understanding the function. The determination of huge size and flexible protein-protein complex structure by experimental studies remains difficult, costly and five-consuming, therefore computational prediction of protein structures by homolog modeling and docking studies is valuable method. In addition, MD simulation is also one of the most powerful methods allowing to see the real dynamics of proteins. Here, we predict protein-protein complex structure of botulinum toxin to analyze its property. These bioinformatics methods are useful to report the relation between the flexibility of backbone structure and the activity.

Toward a Comprehensive Model of Frailty: An Emerging Concept From the Hong Kong Centenarian Study.

PubMed

Kwan, Joseph Shiu Kwong; Lau, Bobo Hi Po; Cheung, Karen Siu Lan

2015-06-01

A better understanding of the essential components of frailty is important for future developments of management strategies. We aimed to assess the incremental validity of a Comprehensive Model of Frailty (CMF) over Frailty Index (FI) in predicting self-rated health and functional dependency amongst near-centenarians and centenarians. Cross-sectional, community-based study. Two community-based social and clinical networks. One hundred twenty-four community-dwelling Chinese near-centenarians and centenarians. Frailty was first assessed using a 32-item FI (FI-32). Then, a new CMF was constructed by adding 12 items in the psychological, social/family, environmental, and economic domains to the FI-32. Hierarchical multiple regressions explored whether the new CMF provided significant additional predictive power for self-rated health and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) dependency. Mean age was 97.7 (standard deviation 2.3) years, with a range from 95 to 108, and 74.2% were female. Overall, 16% of our participants were nonfrail, 59% were prefrail, and 25% were frail. Frailty according to FI-32 significantly predicted self-rated health and IADL dependency beyond the effect of age and gender. Inclusion of the new CMF into the regression models provided significant additional predictive power beyond FI-32 on self-rated health, but not IADL dependency. A CMF should ideally be a multidimensional and multidisciplinary construct including physical, cognitive, functional, psychosocial/family, environmental, and economic factors. Copyright © 2015 AMDA - The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Power load prediction based on GM (1,1)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Di

2017-05-01

Currently, Chinese power load prediction is highly focused; the paper deeply studies grey prediction and applies it to Chinese electricity consumption during the recent 14 years; through after-test test, it obtains grey prediction which has good adaptability to medium and long-term power load.

Effect of accuracy of wind power prediction on power system operator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schlueter, R. A.; Sigari, G.; Costi, T.

1985-01-01

This research project proposed a modified unit commitment that schedules connection and disconnection of generating units in response to load. A modified generation control is also proposed that controls steam units under automatic generation control, fast responding diesels, gas turbines and hydro units under a feedforward control, and wind turbine array output under a closed loop array control. This modified generation control and unit commitment require prediction of trend wind power variation one hour ahead and the prediction of error in this trend wind power prediction one half hour ahead. An improved meter for predicting trend wind speed variation is developed. Methods for accurately simulating the wind array power from a limited number of wind speed prediction records was developed. Finally, two methods for predicting the error in the trend wind power prediction were developed. This research provides a foundation for testing and evaluating the modified unit commitment and generation control that was developed to maintain operating reliability at a greatly reduced overall production cost for utilities with wind generation capacity.

Predicting High-Power Performance in Professional Cyclists.

PubMed

Sanders, Dajo; Heijboer, Mathieu; Akubat, Ibrahim; Meijer, Kenneth; Hesselink, Matthijs K

2017-03-01

To assess if short-duration (5 to ~300 s) high-power performance can accurately be predicted using the anaerobic power reserve (APR) model in professional cyclists. Data from 4 professional cyclists from a World Tour cycling team were used. Using the maximal aerobic power, sprint peak power output, and an exponential constant describing the decrement in power over time, a power-duration relationship was established for each participant. To test the predictive accuracy of the model, several all-out field trials of different durations were performed by each cyclist. The power output achieved during the all-out trials was compared with the predicted power output by the APR model. The power output predicted by the model showed very large to nearly perfect correlations to the actual power output obtained during the all-out trials for each cyclist (r = .88 ± .21, .92 ± .17, .95 ± .13, and .97 ± .09). Power output during the all-out trials remained within an average of 6.6% (53 W) of the predicted power output by the model. This preliminary pilot study presents 4 case studies on the applicability of the APR model in professional cyclists using a field-based approach. The decrement in all-out performance during high-intensity exercise seems to conform to a general relationship with a single exponential-decay model describing the decrement in power vs increasing duration. These results are in line with previous studies using the APR model to predict performance during brief all-out trials. Future research should evaluate the APR model with a larger sample size of elite cyclists.

Simplified aerodynamic analysis of the cyclogiro rotating wing system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheatley, John B

1930-01-01

A simplified aerodynamic theory of the cyclogiro rotating wing is presented herein. In addition, examples have been calculated showing the effect on the rotor characteristics of varying the design parameters of the rotor. A performance prediction, on the basis of the theory here developed, is appended, showing the performance to be expected of a machine employing this system of sustentation. The aerodynamic principles of the cyclogiro are sound; hovering flight, vertical climb, and a reasonable forward speed may be obtained with a normal expenditure of power. Auto rotation in a gliding descent is available in the event of a power-plant failure.

Weighted Feature Significance: A Simple, Interpretable Model of Compound Toxicity Based on the Statistical Enrichment of Structural Features

PubMed Central

Huang, Ruili; Southall, Noel; Xia, Menghang; Cho, Ming-Hsuang; Jadhav, Ajit; Nguyen, Dac-Trung; Inglese, James; Tice, Raymond R.; Austin, Christopher P.

2009-01-01

In support of the U.S. Tox21 program, we have developed a simple and chemically intuitive model we call weighted feature significance (WFS) to predict the toxicological activity of compounds, based on the statistical enrichment of structural features in toxic compounds. We trained and tested the model on the following: (1) data from quantitative high–throughput screening cytotoxicity and caspase activation assays conducted at the National Institutes of Health Chemical Genomics Center, (2) data from Salmonella typhimurium reverse mutagenicity assays conducted by the U.S. National Toxicology Program, and (3) hepatotoxicity data published in the Registry of Toxic Effects of Chemical Substances. Enrichments of structural features in toxic compounds are evaluated for their statistical significance and compiled into a simple additive model of toxicity and then used to score new compounds for potential toxicity. The predictive power of the model for cytotoxicity was validated using an independent set of compounds from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency tested also at the National Institutes of Health Chemical Genomics Center. We compared the performance of our WFS approach with classical classification methods such as Naive Bayesian clustering and support vector machines. In most test cases, WFS showed similar or slightly better predictive power, especially in the prediction of hepatotoxic compounds, where WFS appeared to have the best performance among the three methods. The new algorithm has the important advantages of simplicity, power, interpretability, and ease of implementation. PMID:19805409

Radioallergosorbent testing for penicillin allergy in family practice.

PubMed Central

Worrall, G J; Hull, C; Briffett, E

1994-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To determine (a) the prevalence of patients supposedly allergic to penicillin who have a positive radioallergosorbent test (RAST) result for penicillin G or V and (b) the predictive power of family physicians' clinical judgement that a patient who is supposedly allergic to penicillin will have a positive RAST result. DESIGN: Prospective multicentre cross-sectional observational study. SETTING: Eleven primary care practices in Newfoundland; 10 were in a rural setting. PATIENTS: Of 110 consecutive adult patients with a supposed allergy to penicillin 97 agreed to participate in the study; 92 underwent RAST. INTERVENTIONS: Patients helped physicians complete a questionnaire and had a venous blood sample taken for the RAST. Physicians examined the clinical history and judged whether the patient was likely to have a positive RAST result. MEAN OUTCOME MEASURES: Rates of positive and negative RAST results for penicillin V and G. RESULTS: Of the 92 patients 8 had a positive RAST result and 84 a negative one. The positive predictive power of a "good" clinical history (e.g., urticaria, swollen eyes, tongue or lips, or an anaphylactic reaction witnessed by a physician) was low (10%); the negative predictive power of a "poor" clinical history (e.g., nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, fever, nonspecific rash or fainting) was 92%. CONCLUSIONS: Less than 10% of primary care patients with a supposed allergy to penicillin will have a positive RAST result. In addition, physicians' predictions of allergy in such patients are imprecise. PMID:8275407

Abundance matters: a field experiment testing the more individuals hypothesis for richness–productivity relationships

PubMed Central

Yee, D. A.; Juliano, S. A.

2007-01-01

The more individuals hypothesis (MIH) postulates that productivity increases species richness by increasing mean equilibrium population size, thereby reducing the probability of local extinction. We tested the MIH for invertebrates colonizing microcosms that simulated tree holes by manipulating productivity through additions of leaf or animal detritus and subsequently determining the relationships among richness, total abundance, abundance per species, and measures of productivity. We quantified productivity as the rate of microorganism protein synthesis, microorganism metabolic rate, nutrient ion concentration, and type and amount of detritus. Microcosms with animal detritus attracted more species, more individuals per species, and more total individuals than did microcosms with similar amounts of leaf detritus. Relationships between richness or abundance and productivity varied with date. Richness in June increased as a linear function of productivity, whereas the power function predicted by the MIH fit best in July. Abundance in June and July was best described by a power function of productivity, but the linear function predicted by the MIH fit best in September. Abundance per species was best described by a power function of productivity in June and July. Path analysis showed that the indirect effect of productivity through abundance on richness that is predicted by MIH was important in all months, and that direct links between productivity and richness were unnecessary. Our results support many of the predictions of the MIH, but they also suggest that the effects of abundance on richness may be more complex than expected. PMID:17401581

Influence of Mean-Density Gradient on Small-Scale Turbulence Noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khavaran, Abbas

2000-01-01

A physics-based methodology is described to predict jet-mixing noise due to small-scale turbulence. Both self- and shear-noise source teens of Lilley's equation are modeled and the far-field aerodynamic noise is expressed as an integral over the jet volume of the source multiplied by an appropriate Green's function which accounts for source convection and mean-flow refraction. Our primary interest here is to include transverse gradients of the mean density in the source modeling. It is shown that, in addition to the usual quadrupole type sources which scale to the fourth-power of the acoustic wave number, additional dipole and monopole sources are present that scale to lower powers of wave number. Various two-point correlations are modeled and an approximate solution to noise spectra due to multipole sources of various orders is developed. Mean flow and turbulence information is provided through RANS-k(epsilon) solution. Numerical results are presented for a subsonic jet at a range of temperatures and Mach numbers. Predictions indicated a decrease in high frequency noise with added heat, while changes in the low frequency noise depend on jet velocity and observer angle.

The effects of message recipients' power before and after persuasion: a self-validation analysis.

PubMed

Briñol, Pablo; Petty, Richard E; Valle, Carmen; Rucker, Derek D; Becerra, Alberto

2007-12-01

In the present research, the authors examined the effect of a message recipient's power on attitude change and introduced a new mechanism by which power can affect social judgment. In line with prior research that suggested a link between power and approach tendencies, the authors hypothesized that having power increases confidence relative to being powerless. After demonstrating this link in Experiment 1, in 4 additional studies, they examined the role of power in persuasion as a function of when power is infused into the persuasion process. On the basis of the idea that power validates whatever mental content is accessible, they hypothesized that power would have different effects on persuasion depending on when power was induced. Specifically, the authors predicted that making people feel powerful prior to a message would validate their existing views and thus reduce the perceived need to attend to subsequent information. However, it was hypothesized that inducing power after a message has been processed would validate one's recently generated thoughts and thus influence the extent to which people rely upon their thoughts in determining their attitudes. (c) 2007 APA, all rights reserved.

An Overview of Different Approaches for Battery Lifetime Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Peng; Liang, Jun; Zhang, Feng

2017-05-01

With the rapid development of renewable energy and the continuous improvement of the power supply reliability, battery energy storage technology has been wildly used in power system. Battery degradation is a nonnegligible issue when battery energy storage system participates in system design and operation strategies optimization. The health assessment and remaining cycle life estimation of battery gradually become a challenge and research hotspot in many engineering areas. In this paper, the battery capacity falling and internal resistance increase are presented on the basis of chemical reactions inside the battery. The general life prediction models are analysed from several aspects. The characteristics of them as well as their application scenarios are discussed in the survey. In addition, a novel weighted Ah ageing model with the introduction of the Ragone curve is proposed to provide a detailed understanding of the ageing processes. A rigorous proof of the mathematical theory about the proposed model is given in the paper.

SINGLE NEURON ACTIVITY AND THETA MODULATION IN POSTRHINAL CORTEX DURING VISUAL OBJECT DISCRIMINATION

PubMed Central

Furtak, Sharon C.; Ahmed, Omar J.; Burwell, Rebecca D.

2012-01-01

Postrhinal cortex, the rodent homolog of the primate parahippocampal cortex, processes spatial and contextual information. Our hypothesis of postrhinal function is that it serves to encode context, in part, by forming representations that link objects to places. We recorded postrhinal neuronal activity and local field potentials (LFPs) in rats trained on a two-choice, visual discrimination task. As predicted, a large proportion of postrhinal neurons signaled object-location conjunctions. In addition, postrhinal LFPs exhibited strong oscillatory rhythms in the theta band, and many postrhinal neurons were phase locked to theta. Although correlated with running speed, theta power was lower than predicted by speed alone immediately before and after choice. However, theta power was significantly increased following incorrect decisions, suggesting a role in signaling error. These findings provide evidence that postrhinal cortex encodes representations that link objects to places and suggest that postrhinal theta modulation extends to cognitive as well as spatial functions. PMID:23217745

Evaluation of critical nuclear power plant electrical cable response to severe thermal fire conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Gabriel James

The failure of electrical cables exposed to severe thermal fire conditions are a safety concern for operating commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has promoted the use of risk-informed and performance-based methods for fire protection which resulted in a need to develop realistic methods to quantify the risk of fire to NPP safety. Recent electrical cable testing has been conducted to provide empirical data on the failure modes and likelihood of fire-induced damage. This thesis evaluated numerous aspects of the data. Circuit characteristics affecting fire-induced electrical cable failure modes have been evaluated. In addition, thermal failure temperatures corresponding to cable functional failures have been evaluated to develop realistic single point thermal failure thresholds and probability distributions for specific cable insulation types. Finally, the data was used to evaluate the prediction capabilities of a one-dimension conductive heat transfer model used to predict cable failure.

Leaders’ Behaviors Matter: The Role of Delegation in Promoting Employees’ Feedback-Seeking Behavior

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xiyang; Qian, Jing; Wang, Bin; Jin, Zhuyun; Wang, Jiachen; Wang, Yu

2017-01-01

Feedback helps employees to evaluate and improve their performance, but there have been relatively few empirical investigations into how leaders can encourage employees to seek feedback. To fill this gap we examined the relationship among delegation, psychological empowerment, and feedback-seeking behavior. We hypothesized that delegation promotes feedback-seeking behavior by psychologically empowering subordinates. In addition, power distance moderates the relationship between delegation and feedback-seeking behavior. Analysis of data from a sample of 248 full-time employees of a hotel group in northern China indicated that delegation predicts subordinates’ feedback seeking for individuals with moderate and high power distance orientation, but not for those with low power distance orientation. The mediation hypothesis was also supported. PMID:28638357

Leaders' Behaviors Matter: The Role of Delegation in Promoting Employees' Feedback-Seeking Behavior.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiyang; Qian, Jing; Wang, Bin; Jin, Zhuyun; Wang, Jiachen; Wang, Yu

2017-01-01

Feedback helps employees to evaluate and improve their performance, but there have been relatively few empirical investigations into how leaders can encourage employees to seek feedback. To fill this gap we examined the relationship among delegation, psychological empowerment, and feedback-seeking behavior. We hypothesized that delegation promotes feedback-seeking behavior by psychologically empowering subordinates. In addition, power distance moderates the relationship between delegation and feedback-seeking behavior. Analysis of data from a sample of 248 full-time employees of a hotel group in northern China indicated that delegation predicts subordinates' feedback seeking for individuals with moderate and high power distance orientation, but not for those with low power distance orientation. The mediation hypothesis was also supported.

Improved output power of GaN-based light-emitting diodes grown on a nanopatterned sapphire substrate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Chia-Hua; Hou, Chia-Hung; Tseng, Shao-Ze; Chen, Tsing-Jen; Chien, Hung-Ta; Hsiao, Fu-Li; Lee, Chien-Chieh; Tsai, Yen-Ling; Chen, Chii-Chang

2009-07-01

This letter describes the improved output power of GaN-based light-emitting diodes (LEDs) formed on a nanopatterned sapphire substrate (NPSS) prepared through etching with a self-assembled monolayer of 750-nm-diameter SiO2 nanospheres used as the mask. The output power of NPSS LEDs was 76% greater than that of LEDs on a flat sapphire substrate. Three-dimensional finite-difference time-domain calculation predicted a 40% enhancement in light extraction efficiency of NPSS LEDs. In addition, the reduction of full widths at half maximum in the ω-scan rocking curves for the (0 0 2) and (1 0 2) planes of GaN on NPSS suggested improved crystal quality.

Stochastic Short-term High-resolution Prediction of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power Output

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melin, Alexander M.; Olama, Mohammed M.; Dong, Jin

The increased penetration of solar photovoltaic (PV) energy sources into electric grids has increased the need for accurate modeling and prediction of solar irradiance and power production. Existing modeling and prediction techniques focus on long-term low-resolution prediction over minutes to years. This paper examines the stochastic modeling and short-term high-resolution prediction of solar irradiance and PV power output. We propose a stochastic state-space model to characterize the behaviors of solar irradiance and PV power output. This prediction model is suitable for the development of optimal power controllers for PV sources. A filter-based expectation-maximization and Kalman filtering mechanism is employed tomore » estimate the parameters and states in the state-space model. The mechanism results in a finite dimensional filter which only uses the first and second order statistics. The structure of the scheme contributes to a direct prediction of the solar irradiance and PV power output without any linearization process or simplifying assumptions of the signal’s model. This enables the system to accurately predict small as well as large fluctuations of the solar signals. The mechanism is recursive allowing the solar irradiance and PV power to be predicted online from measurements. The mechanism is tested using solar irradiance and PV power measurement data collected locally in our lab.« less

Artificial neural network approach to predict surgical site infection after free-flap reconstruction in patients receiving surgery for head and neck cancer.

PubMed

Kuo, Pao-Jen; Wu, Shao-Chun; Chien, Peng-Chen; Chang, Shu-Shya; Rau, Cheng-Shyuan; Tai, Hsueh-Ling; Peng, Shu-Hui; Lin, Yi-Chun; Chen, Yi-Chun; Hsieh, Hsiao-Yun; Hsieh, Ching-Hua

2018-03-02

The aim of this study was to develop an effective surgical site infection (SSI) prediction model in patients receiving free-flap reconstruction after surgery for head and neck cancer using artificial neural network (ANN), and to compare its predictive power with that of conventional logistic regression (LR). There were 1,836 patients with 1,854 free-flap reconstructions and 438 postoperative SSIs in the dataset for analysis. They were randomly assigned tin ratio of 7:3 into a training set and a test set. Based on comprehensive characteristics of patients and diseases in the absence or presence of operative data, prediction of SSI was performed at two time points (pre-operatively and post-operatively) with a feed-forward ANN and the LR models. In addition to the calculated accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity, the predictive performance of ANN and LR were assessed based on area under the curve (AUC) measures of receiver operator characteristic curves and Brier score. ANN had a significantly higher AUC (0.892) of post-operative prediction and AUC (0.808) of pre-operative prediction than LR (both P <0.0001). In addition, there was significant higher AUC of post-operative prediction than pre-operative prediction by ANN (p<0.0001). With the highest AUC and the lowest Brier score (0.090), the post-operative prediction by ANN had the highest overall predictive performance. The post-operative prediction by ANN had the highest overall performance in predicting SSI after free-flap reconstruction in patients receiving surgery for head and neck cancer.

Biomarkers for predicting type 2 diabetes development-Can metabolomics improve on existing biomarkers?

PubMed

Savolainen, Otto; Fagerberg, Björn; Vendelbo Lind, Mads; Sandberg, Ann-Sofie; Ross, Alastair B; Bergström, Göran

2017-01-01

The aim was to determine if metabolomics could be used to build a predictive model for type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk that would improve prediction of T2D over current risk markers. Gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry metabolomics was used in a nested case-control study based on a screening sample of 64-year-old Caucasian women (n = 629). Candidate metabolic markers of T2D were identified in plasma obtained at baseline and the power to predict diabetes was tested in 69 incident cases occurring during 5.5 years follow-up. The metabolomics results were used as a standalone prediction model and in combination with established T2D predictive biomarkers for building eight T2D prediction models that were compared with each other based on their sensitivity and selectivity for predicting T2D. Established markers of T2D (impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, insulin resistance (HOMA), smoking, serum adiponectin)) alone, and in combination with metabolomics had the largest areas under the curve (AUC) (0.794 (95% confidence interval [0.738-0.850]) and 0.808 [0.749-0.867] respectively), with the standalone metabolomics model based on nine fasting plasma markers having a lower predictive power (0.657 [0.577-0.736]). Prediction based on non-blood based measures was 0.638 [0.565-0.711]). Established measures of T2D risk remain the best predictor of T2D risk in this population. Additional markers detected using metabolomics are likely related to these measures as they did not enhance the overall prediction in a combined model.

Biomarkers for predicting type 2 diabetes development—Can metabolomics improve on existing biomarkers?

PubMed Central

Savolainen, Otto; Fagerberg, Björn; Vendelbo Lind, Mads; Sandberg, Ann-Sofie; Ross, Alastair B.; Bergström, Göran

2017-01-01

Aim The aim was to determine if metabolomics could be used to build a predictive model for type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk that would improve prediction of T2D over current risk markers. Methods Gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry metabolomics was used in a nested case-control study based on a screening sample of 64-year-old Caucasian women (n = 629). Candidate metabolic markers of T2D were identified in plasma obtained at baseline and the power to predict diabetes was tested in 69 incident cases occurring during 5.5 years follow-up. The metabolomics results were used as a standalone prediction model and in combination with established T2D predictive biomarkers for building eight T2D prediction models that were compared with each other based on their sensitivity and selectivity for predicting T2D. Results Established markers of T2D (impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, insulin resistance (HOMA), smoking, serum adiponectin)) alone, and in combination with metabolomics had the largest areas under the curve (AUC) (0.794 (95% confidence interval [0.738–0.850]) and 0.808 [0.749–0.867] respectively), with the standalone metabolomics model based on nine fasting plasma markers having a lower predictive power (0.657 [0.577–0.736]). Prediction based on non-blood based measures was 0.638 [0.565–0.711]). Conclusions Established measures of T2D risk remain the best predictor of T2D risk in this population. Additional markers detected using metabolomics are likely related to these measures as they did not enhance the overall prediction in a combined model. PMID:28692646

Overview of Heat Addition and Efficiency Predictions for an Advanced Stirling Convertor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Scott D.; Reid, Terry V.; Schifer, Nicholas A.; Briggs, Maxwell H.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (LMSSC) have been developing the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) for use as a power system for space science missions. This generator would use two high-efficiency Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs), developed by Sunpower Inc. and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). The ASCs convert thermal energy from a radioisotope heat source into electricity. As part of ground testing of these ASCs, different operating conditions are used to simulate expected mission conditions. These conditions require achieving a particular operating frequency, hot end and cold end temperatures, and specified electrical power output for a given net heat input. Microporous bulk insulation is used in the ground support test hardware to minimize the loss of thermal energy from the electric heat source to the environment. The insulation package is characterized before operation to predict how much heat will be absorbed by the convertor and how much will be lost to the environment during operation. In an effort to validate these predictions, numerous tasks have been performed, which provided a more accurate value for net heat input into the ASCs. This test and modeling effort included: (a) making thermophysical property measurements of test setup materials to provide inputs to the numerical models, (b) acquiring additional test data that was collected during convertor tests to provide numerical models with temperature profiles of the test setup via thermocouple and infrared measurements, (c) using multidimensional numerical models (computational fluid dynamics code) to predict net heat input of an operating convertor, and (d) using validation test hardware to provide direct comparison of numerical results and validate the multidimensional numerical models used to predict convertor net heat input. This effort produced high fidelity ASC net heat input predictions, which were successfully validated using specially designed test hardware enabling measurement of heat transferred through a simulated Stirling cycle. The overall effort and results are discussed.

Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

DOE PAGES

Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; ...

2014-12-23

We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value ofmore » adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.« less

A Combined Energy Management Algorithm for Wind Turbine/Battery Hybrid System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altin, Necmi; Eyimaya, Süleyman Emre

2018-03-01

From an energy management standpoint, natural phenomena such as solar irradiation and wind speed are uncontrolled variables, so the correlation between the energy generated by renewable energy sources and energy demand cannot always be predicted. For this reason, energy storage systems are used to provide more efficient renewable energy systems. In these systems, energy management systems are used to control the energy storage system and establish a balance between the generated power and the power demand. In addition, especially in wind turbines, rapidly varying wind speeds cause wind power fluctuations, which threaten the power system stability, especially at high power levels. Energy storage systems are also used to mitigate the power fluctuations and sustain the power system's stability. In these systems, another controller which controls the energy storage system power to mitigate power fluctuations is required. These two controllers are different from each other. In this study, a combined energy management algorithm is proposed which can perform both as an energy control system and a power fluctuation mitigation system. The proposed controller is tested with wind energy conversion system modeled in MATLAB/Simulink. Simulation results show that the proposed controller acts as an energy management system while, at the same time, mitigating power fluctuations.

Experiment-specific cosmic microwave background calculations made easier - Approximation formula for smoothed delta T/T windows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gorski, Krzysztof M.

1993-01-01

Simple and easy to implement elementary function approximations are introduced to the spectral window functions needed in calculations of model predictions of the cosmic microwave backgrond (CMB) anisotropy. These approximations allow the investigator to obtain model delta T/T predictions in terms of single integrals over the power spectrum of cosmological perturbations and to avoid the necessity of performing the additional integrations. The high accuracy of these approximations is demonstrated here for the CDM theory-based calculations of the expected delta T/T signal in several experiments searching for the CMB anisotropy.

Accuracy of three-dimensional multislice view Doppler in diagnosis of morbid adherent placenta

PubMed Central

Abdel Moniem, Alaa M.; Ibrahim, Ahmed; Akl, Sherif A.; Aboul-Enen, Loay; Abdelazim, Ibrahim A.

2015-01-01

Objective To detect the accuracy of the three-dimensional multislice view (3D MSV) Doppler in the diagnosis of morbid adherent placenta (MAP). Material and Methods Fifty pregnant women at ≥28 weeks gestation with suspected MAP were included in this prospective study. Two dimensional (2D) trans-abdominal gray-scale ultrasound scan was performed for the subjects to confirm the gestational age, placental location, and findings suggestive of MAP, followed by the 3D power Doppler and then the 3D MSV Doppler to confirm the diagnosis of MAP. Intraoperative findings and histopathology results of removed uteri in cases managed by emergency hysterectomy were compared with preoperative sonographic findings to detect the accuracy of the 3D MSV Doppler in the diagnosis of MAP. Results The 3D MSV Doppler increased the accuracy and predictive values of the diagnostic criteria of MAP compared with the 3D power Doppler. The sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV) (79.6% and 82.2%, respectively) of crowded vessels over the peripheral sub-placental zone to detect difficult placental separation and considerable intraoperative blood loss in cases of MAP using the 3D power Doppler was increased to 82.6% and 84%, respectively, using the 3D MSV Doppler. In addition, the sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value (PPV) (90.9%, 68.8%, and 47%, respectively) of the disruption of the uterine serosa-bladder interface for the detection of emergency hysterectomy in cases of MAP using the 3D power Doppler was increased to 100%, 71.8%, and 50%, respectively, using the 3D MSV Doppler. Conclusion The 3D MSV Doppler is a useful adjunctive tool to the 3D power Doppler or color Doppler to refine the diagnosis of MAP. PMID:26401104

Validation of the grown-ups with congenital heart disease score.

PubMed

Hörer, Jürgen; Roussin, Régine; LeBret, Emanuel; Ly, Mohamed; Abdullah, Jarrah; Marzullo, Rafaella; Pabst von Ohain, Jelena; Belli, Emre

2018-06-01

Adults with congenital heart disease in need of heart surgery frequently present with significant comorbidity. Furthermore, additional technical difficulties often related to redo operations increase the risk for postoperative mortality and morbidity. Hence, next to the type of the procedure, additional procedure-dependent and procedure-independent factors have to be considered for risk evaluation. The recently proposed grown-ups with congenital heart disease (GUCH) mortality and morbidity scores account for these additional risk factors. We sought to validate their predictive power in a large population operated in a single centre. Data of all consecutive patients aged 18 years or more, who underwent surgery for congenital heart disease between 2005 and 2016, were collected. Mortality was defined as hospital mortality or mortality within 30 days following surgery. Morbidity was defined as occurrence of one or more of the following complications: renal failure requiring dialysis, neurologic deficit persisting at discharge, atrioventricular block requiring permanent pacemaker implantation, mechanical circulatory support, phrenic nerve injury and unplanned reoperation. The discriminatory power of the GUCH scores was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (c-index, including 95% CI). Eight hundred and twenty-four operations were evaluated. Additional procedure-dependent and procedure-independent factors, as defined in the GUCH scores, were present in 165 patients (20.0%) and 544 patients (66.0%), respectively. Hospital mortality and morbidity was 3.4% and 10.0%, respectively. C-index for GUCH mortality score was 0.809 (0.742-0.877). C-index for GUCH morbidity score was 0.676 (0.619-0.734). We could confirm the good predictive power of the GUCH mortality score for postoperative mortality in a large population of adults with congenital heart disease. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Driscoll, M.

Power capacity additions in Asia will at least triple by 2010, and Arthur D. Little Inc. predicts natural gas can pick up a good 15 percent of that market. The study predicts Asia potentially will need 720 gigawatts of new power generation by 2010, of which 15 percent may be gas-based. This represents a market three times the size of the US market in the same period, and would require more than $1 trillion in investment to finance the power generation projects alone. Six forces are driving new market opportunities for natural gas in Asia, and have set the stagemore » for major investments in Asian gas-based power generation. They are: New technologies; growing environmental pressures; privatization; alternative energy pricing; gas availability; and continued economic growth. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan already have large, well-established markets for both gas and power that provide minimal opportunities for foreign investment. But the rest of Asia - specifically, India, Pakistan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the People's Republic of China, Thailand, Bangladesh and Myanmar - is still relatively undeveloped, the study said, and gas is emerging as an energy import substitute or export earner. The study found those countries will turn increased environmental awareness and concern into legislation as their economic prosperity grows, leading to a higher future value for natural gas relative to other fuels. Stricter emissions standards will favor gas over diesel, fuel oil and coal.« less

Supervised machine learning techniques to predict binding affinity. A study for cyclin-dependent kinase 2.

PubMed

de Ávila, Maurício Boff; Xavier, Mariana Morrone; Pintro, Val Oliveira; de Azevedo, Walter Filgueira

2017-12-09

Here we report the development of a machine-learning model to predict binding affinity based on the crystallographic structures of protein-ligand complexes. We used an ensemble of crystallographic structures (resolution better than 1.5 Å resolution) for which half-maximal inhibitory concentration (IC 50 ) data is available. Polynomial scoring functions were built using as explanatory variables the energy terms present in the MolDock and PLANTS scoring functions. Prediction performance was tested and the supervised machine learning models showed improvement in the prediction power, when compared with PLANTS and MolDock scoring functions. In addition, the machine-learning model was applied to predict binding affinity of CDK2, which showed a better performance when compared with AutoDock4, AutoDock Vina, MolDock, and PLANTS scores. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Motion compensation via redundant-wavelet multihypothesis.

PubMed

Fowler, James E; Cui, Suxia; Wang, Yonghui

2006-10-01

Multihypothesis motion compensation has been widely used in video coding with previous attention focused on techniques employing predictions that are diverse spatially or temporally. In this paper, the multihypothesis concept is extended into the transform domain by using a redundant wavelet transform to produce multiple predictions that are diverse in transform phase. The corresponding multiple-phase inverse transform implicitly combines the phase-diverse predictions into a single spatial-domain prediction for motion compensation. The performance advantage of this redundant-wavelet-multihypothesis approach is investigated analytically, invoking the fact that the multiple-phase inverse involves a projection that significantly reduces the power of a dense-motion residual modeled as additive noise. The analysis shows that redundant-wavelet multihypothesis is capable of up to a 7-dB reduction in prediction-residual variance over an equivalent single-phase, single-hypothesis approach. Experimental results substantiate the performance advantage for a block-based implementation.

Development and Application of Advanced Weather Prediction Technologies for the Wind Energy Industry (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahoney, W. P.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.; Myers, W.; Johnson, D.

2010-12-01

Wind energy decision makers are required to make critical judgments on a daily basis with regard to energy generation, distribution, demand, storage, and integration. Accurate knowledge of the present and future state of the atmosphere is vital in making these decisions. As wind energy portfolios expand, this forecast problem is taking on new urgency because wind forecast inaccuracies frequently lead to substantial economic losses and constrain the national expansion of renewable energy. Improved weather prediction and precise spatial analysis of small-scale weather events are crucial for renewable energy management. In early 2009, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) began a collaborative project with Xcel Energy Services, Inc. to perform research and develop technologies to improve Xcel Energy's ability to increase the amount of wind energy in their generation portfolio. The agreement and scope of work was designed to provide highly detailed, localized wind energy forecasts to enable Xcel Energy to more efficiently integrate electricity generated from wind into the power grid. The wind prediction technologies are designed to help Xcel Energy operators make critical decisions about powering down traditional coal and natural gas-powered plants when sufficient wind energy is predicted. The wind prediction technologies have been designed to cover Xcel Energy wind resources spanning a region from Wisconsin to New Mexico. The goal of the project is not only to improve Xcel Energy’s wind energy prediction capabilities, but also to make technological advancements in wind and wind energy prediction, expand our knowledge of boundary layer meteorology, and share the results across the renewable energy industry. To generate wind energy forecasts, NCAR is incorporating observations of current atmospheric conditions from a variety of sources including satellites, aircraft, weather radars, ground-based weather stations, wind profilers, and even wind sensors on individual wind turbines. The information is utilized by several technologies including: a) the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which generates finely detailed simulations of future atmospheric conditions, b) the Real-Time Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation System (RTFDDA), which performs continuous data assimilation providing the WRF model with continuous updates of the initial atmospheric state, 3) the Dynamic Integrated Forecast System (DICast®), which statistically optimizes the forecasts using all predictors, and 4) a suite of wind-to-power algorithms that convert wind speed to power for a wide range of wind farms with varying real-time data availability capabilities. In addition to these core wind energy prediction capabilities, NCAR implemented a high-resolution (10 km grid increment) 30-member ensemble RTFDDA prediction system that provides information on the expected range of wind power over a 72-hour forecast period covering Xcel Energy’s service areas. This talk will include descriptions of these capabilities and report on several topics including initial results of next-day forecasts and nowcasts of wind energy ramp events, influence of local observations on forecast skill, and overall lessons learned to date.

Alpha Oscillations during Incidental Encoding Predict Subsequent Memory for New "Foil" Information.

PubMed

Vogelsang, David A; Gruber, Matthias; Bergström, Zara M; Ranganath, Charan; Simons, Jon S

2018-05-01

People can employ adaptive strategies to increase the likelihood that previously encoded information will be successfully retrieved. One such strategy is to constrain retrieval toward relevant information by reimplementing the neurocognitive processes that were engaged during encoding. Using EEG, we examined the temporal dynamics with which constraining retrieval toward semantic versus nonsemantic information affects the processing of new "foil" information encountered during a memory test. Time-frequency analysis of EEG data acquired during an initial study phase revealed that semantic compared with nonsemantic processing was associated with alpha decreases in a left frontal electrode cluster from around 600 msec after stimulus onset. Successful encoding of semantic versus nonsemantic foils during a subsequent memory test was related to decreases in alpha oscillatory activity in the same left frontal electrode cluster, which emerged relatively late in the trial at around 1000-1600 msec after stimulus onset. Across participants, left frontal alpha power elicited by semantic processing during the study phase correlated significantly with left frontal alpha power associated with semantic foil encoding during the memory test. Furthermore, larger left frontal alpha power decreases elicited by semantic foil encoding during the memory test predicted better subsequent semantic foil recognition in an additional surprise foil memory test, although this effect did not reach significance. These findings indicate that constraining retrieval toward semantic information involves reimplementing semantic encoding operations that are mediated by alpha oscillations and that such reimplementation occurs at a late stage of memory retrieval, perhaps reflecting additional monitoring processes.

Using the weighted area under the net benefit curve for decision curve analysis.

PubMed

Talluri, Rajesh; Shete, Sanjay

2016-07-18

Risk prediction models have been proposed for various diseases and are being improved as new predictors are identified. A major challenge is to determine whether the newly discovered predictors improve risk prediction. Decision curve analysis has been proposed as an alternative to the area under the curve and net reclassification index to evaluate the performance of prediction models in clinical scenarios. The decision curve computed using the net benefit can evaluate the predictive performance of risk models at a given or range of threshold probabilities. However, when the decision curves for 2 competing models cross in the range of interest, it is difficult to identify the best model as there is no readily available summary measure for evaluating the predictive performance. The key deterrent for using simple measures such as the area under the net benefit curve is the assumption that the threshold probabilities are uniformly distributed among patients. We propose a novel measure for performing decision curve analysis. The approach estimates the distribution of threshold probabilities without the need of additional data. Using the estimated distribution of threshold probabilities, the weighted area under the net benefit curve serves as the summary measure to compare risk prediction models in a range of interest. We compared 3 different approaches, the standard method, the area under the net benefit curve, and the weighted area under the net benefit curve. Type 1 error and power comparisons demonstrate that the weighted area under the net benefit curve has higher power compared to the other methods. Several simulation studies are presented to demonstrate the improvement in model comparison using the weighted area under the net benefit curve compared to the standard method. The proposed measure improves decision curve analysis by using the weighted area under the curve and thereby improves the power of the decision curve analysis to compare risk prediction models in a clinical scenario.

Universal Inverse Power-Law Distribution for Fractal Fluctuations in Dynamical Systems: Applications for Predictability of Inter-Annual Variability of Indian and USA Region Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selvam, A. M.

2017-01-01

Dynamical systems in nature exhibit self-similar fractal space-time fluctuations on all scales indicating long-range correlations and, therefore, the statistical normal distribution with implicit assumption of independence, fixed mean and standard deviation cannot be used for description and quantification of fractal data sets. The author has developed a general systems theory based on classical statistical physics for fractal fluctuations which predicts the following. (1) The fractal fluctuations signify an underlying eddy continuum, the larger eddies being the integrated mean of enclosed smaller-scale fluctuations. (2) The probability distribution of eddy amplitudes and the variance (square of eddy amplitude) spectrum of fractal fluctuations follow the universal Boltzmann inverse power law expressed as a function of the golden mean. (3) Fractal fluctuations are signatures of quantum-like chaos since the additive amplitudes of eddies when squared represent probability densities analogous to the sub-atomic dynamics of quantum systems such as the photon or electron. (4) The model predicted distribution is very close to statistical normal distribution for moderate events within two standard deviations from the mean but exhibits a fat long tail that are associated with hazardous extreme events. Continuous periodogram power spectral analyses of available GHCN annual total rainfall time series for the period 1900-2008 for Indian and USA stations show that the power spectra and the corresponding probability distributions follow model predicted universal inverse power law form signifying an eddy continuum structure underlying the observed inter-annual variability of rainfall. On a global scale, man-made greenhouse gas related atmospheric warming would result in intensification of natural climate variability, seen immediately in high frequency fluctuations such as QBO and ENSO and even shorter timescales. Model concepts and results of analyses are discussed with reference to possible prediction of climate change. Model concepts, if correct, rule out unambiguously, linear trends in climate. Climate change will only be manifested as increase or decrease in the natural variability. However, more stringent tests of model concepts and predictions are required before applications to such an important issue as climate change. Observations and simulations with climate models show that precipitation extremes intensify in response to a warming climate (O'Gorman in Curr Clim Change Rep 1:49-59, 2015).

Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER) Users Guide

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-01

ARL-TR-7573● JAN 2016 US Army Research Laboratory Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER) User’s Guide by David P Sauter...not return it to the originator. ARL-TR-7573 ● JAN 2016 US Army Research Laboratory Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER...2016 2. REPORT TYPE Final 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 09/2015–11/2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER) User’s

Implications of Atmospheric Test Fallout Data for Nuclear Winter.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, George Harold, III

1987-09-01

Atmospheric test fallout data have been used to determine admissable dust particle size distributions for nuclear winter studies. The research was originally motivated by extreme differences noted in the magnitude and longevity of dust effects predicted by particle size distributions routinely used in fallout predictions versus those used for nuclear winter studies. Three different sets of historical data have been analyzed: (1) Stratospheric burden of Strontium -90 and Tungsten-185, 1954-1967 (92 contributing events); (2) Continental U.S. Strontium-90 fallout through 1958 (75 contributing events); (3) Local Fallout from selected Nevada tests (16 events). The contribution of dust to possible long term climate effects following a nuclear exchange depends strongly on the particle size distribution. The distribution affects both the atmospheric residence time and optical depth. One dimensional models of stratospheric/tropospheric fallout removal were developed and used to identify optimum particle distributions. Results indicate that particle distributions which properly predict bulk stratospheric activity transfer tend to be somewhat smaller than number size distributions used in initial nuclear winter studies. In addition, both ^{90}Sr and ^ {185}W fallout behavior is better predicted by the lognormal distribution function than the prevalent power law hybrid function. It is shown that the power law behavior of particle samples may well be an aberration of gravitational cloud stratification. Results support the possible existence of two independent particle size distributions in clouds generated by surface or near surface bursts. One distribution governs late time stratospheric fallout, the other governs early time fallout. A bimodal lognormal distribution is proposed to describe the cloud particle population. The distribution predicts higher initial sunlight attenuation and lower late time attenuation than the power law hybrid function used in initial nuclear winter studies.

Analysis and experimental evaluation of shunt active power filter for power quality improvement based on predictive direct power control.

PubMed

Aissa, Oualid; Moulahoum, Samir; Colak, Ilhami; Babes, Badreddine; Kabache, Nadir

2017-10-12

This paper discusses the use of the concept of classical and predictive direct power control for shunt active power filter function. These strategies are used to improve the active power filter performance by compensation of the reactive power and the elimination of the harmonic currents drawn by non-linear loads. A theoretical analysis followed by a simulation using MATLAB/Simulink software for the studied techniques has been established. Moreover, two test benches have been carried out using the dSPACE card 1104 for the classic and predictive DPC control to evaluate the studied methods in real time. Obtained results are presented and compared in this paper to confirm the superiority of the predictive technique. To overcome the pollution problems caused by the consumption of fossil fuels, renewable energies are the alternatives recommended to ensure green energy. In the same context, the tested predictive filter can easily be supplied by a renewable energy source that will give its impact to enhance the power quality.

The added value of world views over self-views: Predicting modest behaviour in Eastern and Western cultures.

PubMed

Chen, Sylvia Xiaohua; Ng, Jacky C K; Buchtel, Emma E; Guan, Yanjun; Deng, Hong; Bond, Michael Harris

2017-12-01

Personality research has been focused on different aspects of the self, including traits, attitudes, beliefs, goals, and motivation. These aspects of the self are used to explain and predict social behaviour. The present research assessed generalized beliefs about the world, termed 'social axioms' (Leung et al., ), and examined their additive power over beliefs about the self in explaining a communal behaviour, that is, modesty. Three studies predicted reported modest behaviour among Mainland Chinese, Hong Kong Chinese, East Asian Canadians, and European Canadians. In addition to self-reports in Studies 1 and 2, informant reports from participants' parents and close friends were collected in Study 3 to construct a behavioural composite after examining the resulting multitrait-multimethod matrix and intraclass correlations. World views (operationalized as social axioms) explained additional variance in modest behaviour over and above self-views (operationalized as self-efficacy, self-construals, and trait modesty) in both Eastern and Western cultures. Variation in reports on three factors of modest behaviour was found across self-, parent, and friend perspectives, with significant differences across perspectives in self-effacement and other-enhancement, but not in avoidance of attention-seeking. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Multi-scale Mexican spotted owl (Strix occidentalis lucida) nest/roost habitat selection in Arizona and a comparison with single-scale modeling results

Treesearch

Brad C. Timm; Kevin McGarigal; Samuel A. Cushman; Joseph L. Ganey

2016-01-01

Efficacy of future habitat selection studies will benefit by taking a multi-scale approach. In addition to potentially providing increased explanatory power and predictive capacity, multi-scale habitat models enhance our understanding of the scales at which species respond to their environment, which is critical knowledge required to implement effective...

Correlation between molecular secondary ion yield and cluster ion sputtering for samples with different stopping powers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heile, A.; Muhmann, C.; Lipinsky, D.; Arlinghaus, H. F.

2012-07-01

In static SIMS, the secondary ion yield, defined as detected ions per primary ion, can be increased by altering several primary ion parameters. For many years, no quantitative predictions could be made for the secondary ion yield enhancement of molecular ions. For thick samples of organic compounds, a power dependency of the secondary ion yield on the sputtering yield was shown. For this article, samples with thick molecular layers and (sub-)monolayers composed of various molecules were prepared on inorganic substrates such as silicon, silver, and gold, and subsequently analyzed. For primary ion bombardment, monoatomic (Ne+, Ar+, Ga+, Kr+, Xe+, Bi+) as well as polyatomic (Bin+, Bin++) primary ions were used within an energy range of 10-50 keV. The power dependency was found to hold true for the different samples; however, the exponent decreased with increasing stopping power. Based on these findings, a rule of thumb is proposed for the prediction of the lower limit of the secondary ion yield enhancement as a function of the primary ion species. Additionally, effects caused by the variation of the energy deposition are discussed, including the degree of molecular fragmentation and the non-linear increase of the secondary ion yield when polyatomic primary ions are used.

The aerodynamic cost of flight in the short-tailed fruit bat (Carollia perspicillata): comparing theory with measurement

PubMed Central

von Busse, Rhea; Waldman, Rye M.; Swartz, Sharon M.; Voigt, Christian C.; Breuer, Kenneth S.

2014-01-01

Aerodynamic theory has long been used to predict the power required for animal flight, but widely used models contain many simplifications. It has been difficult to ascertain how closely biological reality matches model predictions, largely because of the technical challenges of accurately measuring the power expended when an animal flies. We designed a study to measure flight speed-dependent aerodynamic power directly from the kinetic energy contained in the wake of bats flying in a wind tunnel. We compared these measurements with two theoretical predictions that have been used for several decades in diverse fields of vertebrate biology and to metabolic measurements from a previous study using the same individuals. A high-accuracy displaced laser sheet stereo particle image velocimetry experimental design measured the wake velocities in the Trefftz plane behind four bats flying over a range of speeds (3–7 m s−1). We computed the aerodynamic power contained in the wake using a novel interpolation method and compared these results with the power predicted by Pennycuick's and Rayner's models. The measured aerodynamic power falls between the two theoretical predictions, demonstrating that the models effectively predict the appropriate range of flight power, but the models do not accurately predict minimum power or maximum range speeds. Mechanical efficiency—the ratio of aerodynamic power output to metabolic power input—varied from 5.9% to 9.8% for the same individuals, changing with flight speed. PMID:24718450

Prediction of anaerobic power values from an abbreviated WAnT protocol.

PubMed

Stickley, Christopher D; Hetzler, Ronald K; Kimura, Iris F

2008-05-01

The traditional 30-second Wingate anaerobic test (WAnT) is a widely used anaerobic power assessment protocol. An abbreviated protocol has been shown to decrease the mild to severe physical discomfort often associated with the WAnT. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine whether a 20-second WAnT protocol could be used to accurately predict power values of a standard 30-second WAnT. In 96 college females, anaerobic power variables were assessed using a standard 30-second WAnT protocol. Maximum power values as well as instantaneous power at 10, 15, and 20 seconds were recorded. Based on these results, stepwise regression analysis was performed to determine the accuracy with which mean power, minimum power, 30-second power, and percentage of fatigue for a standard 30-second WAnT could be predicted from values obtained during the first 20 seconds of testing. Mean power values showed the highest level of predictability (R2 = 0.99) from the 20-second values. Minimum power, 30-second power, and percentage of fatigue also showed high levels of predictability (R2 = 0.91, 0.84, and 0.84, respectively) using only values obtained during the first 20 seconds of the protocol. An abbreviated (20-second) WAnT protocol appears to effectively predict results of a standard 30-second WAnT in college-age females, allowing for comparison of data to published norms. A shortened test may allow for a decrease in unwanted side effects associated with the traditional WAnT protocol.

Can arousing feedback rectify lapses in driving? Prediction from EEG power spectra.

PubMed

Lin, Chin-Teng; Huang, Kuan-Chih; Chuang, Chun-Hsiang; Ko, Li-Wei; Jung, Tzyy-Ping

2013-10-01

This study explores the neurophysiological changes, measured using an electroencephalogram (EEG), in response to an arousing warning signal delivered to drowsy drivers, and predicts the efficacy of the feedback based on changes in the EEG. Eleven healthy subjects participated in sustained-attention driving experiments. The driving task required participants to maintain their cruising position and compensate for randomly induced lane deviations using the steering wheel, while their EEG and driving performance were continuously monitored. The arousing warning signal was delivered to participants who experienced momentary behavioral lapses, failing to respond rapidly to lane-departure events (specifically the reaction time exceeded three times the alert reaction time). The results of our previous studies revealed that arousing feedback immediately reversed deteriorating driving performance, which was accompanied by concurrent EEG theta- and alpha-power suppression in the bilateral occipital areas. This study further proposes a feedback efficacy assessment system to accurately estimate the efficacy of arousing warning signals delivered to drowsy participants by monitoring the changes in their EEG power spectra immediately thereafter. The classification accuracy was up 77.8% for determining the need for triggering additional warning signals. The findings of this study, in conjunction with previous studies on EEG correlates of behavioral lapses, might lead to a practical closed-loop system to predict, monitor and rectify behavioral lapses of human operators in attention-critical settings.

The relationship of plasma decoy receptor 3 and coronary collateral circulation in patients with coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Yan, Youyou; Song, Dandan; Liu, Lulu; Meng, Xiuping; Qi, Chao; Wang, Junnan

2017-11-15

Previously, decoy receptor 3 (DcR3) was found to be a potential angiogenetic factor, while the relationship of DcR3 with coronary collateral circulation formation has not been investigated. In this study, we aimed to investigate whether plasma decoy receptor 3 levels was associated with CCC formation and evaluate its predictive power for CCC status in patients with coronary artery disease. Among patients who underwent coronary angiography with coronary artery disease and had a stenosis of ≥90% were included in our study. Collateral degree was graded according to Rentrope Cohen classification. Patients with grade 2 or 3 collateral degree were enrolled in good CCC group and patients with grade 0 or 1 collateral degree were enrolled in poor CCC group. Plasma DcR3 level was significantly higher in good CCC group (328.00±230.82 vs 194.84±130.63ng/l, p<0.01) and positively correlated with Rentrope grade (p<0.01). In addition, plasma DcR3 was also positively correlated with VEGF-A. Both ROC (receiver operating characteristic curve) and multinomial logistical regression analysis showed that plasma DcR3 displayed potent predictive power for CCC status. Higher plasma DcR3 level was related to better CCC formation and displayed potent predictive power for CCC status. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Improving accuracy and power with transfer learning using a meta-analytic database.

PubMed

Schwartz, Yannick; Varoquaux, Gaël; Pallier, Christophe; Pinel, Philippe; Poline, Jean-Baptiste; Thirion, Bertrand

2012-01-01

Typical cohorts in brain imaging studies are not large enough for systematic testing of all the information contained in the images. To build testable working hypotheses, investigators thus rely on analysis of previous work, sometimes formalized in a so-called meta-analysis. In brain imaging, this approach underlies the specification of regions of interest (ROIs) that are usually selected on the basis of the coordinates of previously detected effects. In this paper, we propose to use a database of images, rather than coordinates, and frame the problem as transfer learning: learning a discriminant model on a reference task to apply it to a different but related new task. To facilitate statistical analysis of small cohorts, we use a sparse discriminant model that selects predictive voxels on the reference task and thus provides a principled procedure to define ROIs. The benefits of our approach are twofold. First it uses the reference database for prediction, i.e., to provide potential biomarkers in a clinical setting. Second it increases statistical power on the new task. We demonstrate on a set of 18 pairs of functional MRI experimental conditions that our approach gives good prediction. In addition, on a specific transfer situation involving different scanners at different locations, we show that voxel selection based on transfer learning leads to higher detection power on small cohorts.

Feature Extraction of Event-Related Potentials Using Wavelets: An Application to Human Performance Monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trejo, Leonard J.; Shensa, Mark J.; Remington, Roger W. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

This report describes the development and evaluation of mathematical models for predicting human performance from discrete wavelet transforms (DWT) of event-related potentials (ERP) elicited by task-relevant stimuli. The DWT was compared to principal components analysis (PCA) for representation of ERPs in linear regression and neural network models developed to predict a composite measure of human signal detection performance. Linear regression models based on coefficients of the decimated DWT predicted signal detection performance with half as many f ree parameters as comparable models based on PCA scores. In addition, the DWT-based models were more resistant to model degradation due to over-fitting than PCA-based models. Feed-forward neural networks were trained using the backpropagation,-, algorithm to predict signal detection performance based on raw ERPs, PCA scores, or high-power coefficients of the DWT. Neural networks based on high-power DWT coefficients trained with fewer iterations, generalized to new data better, and were more resistant to overfitting than networks based on raw ERPs. Networks based on PCA scores did not generalize to new data as well as either the DWT network or the raw ERP network. The results show that wavelet expansions represent the ERP efficiently and extract behaviorally important features for use in linear regression or neural network models of human performance. The efficiency of the DWT is discussed in terms of its decorrelation and energy compaction properties. In addition, the DWT models provided evidence that a pattern of low-frequency activity (1 to 3.5 Hz) occurring at specific times and scalp locations is a reliable correlate of human signal detection performance.

Feature extraction of event-related potentials using wavelets: an application to human performance monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trejo, L. J.; Shensa, M. J.

1999-01-01

This report describes the development and evaluation of mathematical models for predicting human performance from discrete wavelet transforms (DWT) of event-related potentials (ERP) elicited by task-relevant stimuli. The DWT was compared to principal components analysis (PCA) for representation of ERPs in linear regression and neural network models developed to predict a composite measure of human signal detection performance. Linear regression models based on coefficients of the decimated DWT predicted signal detection performance with half as many free parameters as comparable models based on PCA scores. In addition, the DWT-based models were more resistant to model degradation due to over-fitting than PCA-based models. Feed-forward neural networks were trained using the backpropagation algorithm to predict signal detection performance based on raw ERPs, PCA scores, or high-power coefficients of the DWT. Neural networks based on high-power DWT coefficients trained with fewer iterations, generalized to new data better, and were more resistant to overfitting than networks based on raw ERPs. Networks based on PCA scores did not generalize to new data as well as either the DWT network or the raw ERP network. The results show that wavelet expansions represent the ERP efficiently and extract behaviorally important features for use in linear regression or neural network models of human performance. The efficiency of the DWT is discussed in terms of its decorrelation and energy compaction properties. In addition, the DWT models provided evidence that a pattern of low-frequency activity (1 to 3.5 Hz) occurring at specific times and scalp locations is a reliable correlate of human signal detection performance. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Predictive ability of a comprehensive incremental test in mountain bike marathon.

PubMed

Ahrend, Marc-Daniel; Schneeweiss, Patrick; Martus, Peter; Niess, Andreas M; Krauss, Inga

2018-01-01

Traditional performance tests in mountain bike marathon (XCM) primarily quantify aerobic metabolism and may not describe the relevant capacities in XCM. We aimed to validate a comprehensive test protocol quantifying its intermittent demands. Forty-nine athletes (38.8±9.1 years; 38 male; 11 female) performed a laboratory performance test, including an incremental test, to determine individual anaerobic threshold (IAT), peak power output (PPO) and three maximal efforts (10 s all-out sprint, 1 min maximal effort and 5 min maximal effort). Within 2 weeks, the athletes participated in one of three XCM races (n=15, n=9 and n=25). Correlations between test variables and race times were calculated separately. In addition, multiple regression models of the predictive value of laboratory outcomes were calculated for race 3 and across all races (z-transformed data). All variables were correlated with race times 1, 2 and 3: 10 s all-out sprint (r=-0.72; r=-0.59; r=-0.61), 1 min maximal effort (r=-0.85; r=-0.84; r=-0.82), 5 min maximal effort (r=-0.57; r=-0.85; r=-0.76), PPO (r=-0.77; r=-0.73; r=-0.76) and IAT (r=-0.71; r=-0.67; r=-0.68). The best-fitting multiple regression models for race 3 (r 2 =0.868) and across all races (r 2 =0.757) comprised 1 min maximal effort, IAT and body weight. Aerobic and intermittent variables correlated least strongly with race times. Their use in a multiple regression model confirmed additional explanatory power to predict XCM performance. These findings underline the usefulness of the comprehensive incremental test to predict performance in that sport more precisely.

Nonlinear electronic stopping power of channeled slow light ions in ZnSe: Evidence of energy loss caused by formation and breaking of chemical bond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chang-kai; Wang, Feng; Gao, Cong-Zhang; Liao, Bin; Ouyang, Xiao-ping; Zhang, Feng-Shou

2018-07-01

Electronic stopping power of helium ions in a semiconductor material ZnSe has been investigated through non-adiabatic dynamics simulations at energies of a few keV under channeling condition. The stopping power is predicted to be proportional to velocity for the trajectory along middle axis of a 〈 1 1 0 〉 channel, as expected for the linear response theory accounts for election-hole pair creation. While for the off-center channeling trajectory, a counterintuitive of electronic stopping power versus velocity is observed. Our study, presented herein, finds a non-trivial connection between charge transfer and the force experienced by the projectile. Charge transfer can produce, throughout the collision process, additional force by continuously forming and breaking instantaneous chemical bonds between the projectile and the neighboring host atoms.

The Lyman-α power spectrum—CMB lensing convergence cross-correlation

DOE PAGES

Chiang, Chi-Ting; Slosar, Anže

2018-01-11

We investigate the three-point correlation between the Lyman-α forest and the CMB weak lensing (δ Fδ FΚ) expressed as the cross-correlation between the CMB weak lensing field and local variations in the forest power spectrum. In addition to the standard gravitational bispectrum term, we note the existence of a non-standard systematic term coming from mis-estimation of the mean flux over the finite length of Lyman-α skewers. We numerically calculate the angular cross-power spectrum and discuss its features. We integrate it into zero-lag correlation function and compare our predictions with recent results by Doux et al.. We nd that our predictionsmore » are statistically consistent with the measurement, and including the systematic term improves the agreement with the measurement. We comment on the implication of the response of the Lyman-α forest power spectrum to the long-wavelength density perturbations.« less

The Lyman-α power spectrum—CMB lensing convergence cross-correlation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chiang, Chi-Ting; Slosar, Anže

We investigate the three-point correlation between the Lyman-α forest and the CMB weak lensing (δ Fδ FΚ) expressed as the cross-correlation between the CMB weak lensing field and local variations in the forest power spectrum. In addition to the standard gravitational bispectrum term, we note the existence of a non-standard systematic term coming from mis-estimation of the mean flux over the finite length of Lyman-α skewers. We numerically calculate the angular cross-power spectrum and discuss its features. We integrate it into zero-lag correlation function and compare our predictions with recent results by Doux et al.. We nd that our predictionsmore » are statistically consistent with the measurement, and including the systematic term improves the agreement with the measurement. We comment on the implication of the response of the Lyman-α forest power spectrum to the long-wavelength density perturbations.« less

Double synchronized switch harvesting (DSSH): a new energy harvesting scheme for efficient energy extraction.

PubMed

Lallart, Mickaël; Garbuio, Lauric; Petit, Lionel; Richard, Claude; Guyomar, Daniel

2008-10-01

This paper presents a new technique for optimized energy harvesting using piezoelectric microgenerators called double synchronized switch harvesting (DSSH). This technique consists of a nonlinear treatment of the output voltage of the piezoelectric element. It also integrates an intermediate switching stage that ensures an optimal harvested power whatever the load connected to the microgenerator. Theoretical developments are presented considering either constant vibration magnitude, constant driving force, or independent extraction. Then experimental measurements are carried out to validate the theoretical predictions. This technique exhibits a constant output power for a wide range of load connected to the microgenerator. In addition, the extracted power obtained using such a technique allows a gain up to 500% in terms of maximal power output compared with the standard energy harvesting method. It is also shown that such a technique allows a fine-tuning of the trade-off between vibration damping and energy harvesting.

Distribution function approach to redshift space distortions. Part IV: perturbation theory applied to dark matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vlah, Zvonimir; Seljak, Uroš; McDonald, Patrick; Okumura, Teppei; Baldauf, Tobias

2012-11-01

We develop a perturbative approach to redshift space distortions (RSD) using the phase space distribution function approach and apply it to the dark matter redshift space power spectrum and its moments. RSD can be written as a sum over density weighted velocity moments correlators, with the lowest order being density, momentum density and stress energy density. We use standard and extended perturbation theory (PT) to determine their auto and cross correlators, comparing them to N-body simulations. We show which of the terms can be modeled well with the standard PT and which need additional terms that include higher order corrections which cannot be modeled in PT. Most of these additional terms are related to the small scale velocity dispersion effects, the so called finger of god (FoG) effects, which affect some, but not all, of the terms in this expansion, and which can be approximately modeled using a simple physically motivated ansatz such as the halo model. We point out that there are several velocity dispersions that enter into the detailed RSD analysis with very different amplitudes, which can be approximately predicted by the halo model. In contrast to previous models our approach systematically includes all of the terms at a given order in PT and provides a physical interpretation for the small scale dispersion values. We investigate RSD power spectrum as a function of μ, the cosine of the angle between the Fourier mode and line of sight, focusing on the lowest order powers of μ and multipole moments which dominate the observable RSD power spectrum. Overall we find considerable success in modeling many, but not all, of the terms in this expansion. This is similar to the situation in real space, but predicting power spectrum in redshift space is more difficult because of the explicit influence of small scale dispersion type effects in RSD, which extend to very large scales.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vlah, Zvonimir; Seljak, Uroš; Baldauf, Tobias

We develop a perturbative approach to redshift space distortions (RSD) using the phase space distribution function approach and apply it to the dark matter redshift space power spectrum and its moments. RSD can be written as a sum over density weighted velocity moments correlators, with the lowest order being density, momentum density and stress energy density. We use standard and extended perturbation theory (PT) to determine their auto and cross correlators, comparing them to N-body simulations. We show which of the terms can be modeled well with the standard PT and which need additional terms that include higher order correctionsmore » which cannot be modeled in PT. Most of these additional terms are related to the small scale velocity dispersion effects, the so called finger of god (FoG) effects, which affect some, but not all, of the terms in this expansion, and which can be approximately modeled using a simple physically motivated ansatz such as the halo model. We point out that there are several velocity dispersions that enter into the detailed RSD analysis with very different amplitudes, which can be approximately predicted by the halo model. In contrast to previous models our approach systematically includes all of the terms at a given order in PT and provides a physical interpretation for the small scale dispersion values. We investigate RSD power spectrum as a function of μ, the cosine of the angle between the Fourier mode and line of sight, focusing on the lowest order powers of μ and multipole moments which dominate the observable RSD power spectrum. Overall we find considerable success in modeling many, but not all, of the terms in this expansion. This is similar to the situation in real space, but predicting power spectrum in redshift space is more difficult because of the explicit influence of small scale dispersion type effects in RSD, which extend to very large scales.« less

Using geoneutrinos to constrain the radiogenic power in the Earth's mantle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šrámek, Ondřej; Roskovec, Bedřich; Wipperfurth, Scott A.; Xi, Yufei; McDonough, William F.

2017-04-01

The Earth's engine is driven by unknown proportions of primordial energy and heat produced in radioactive decay. Unfortunately, competing models of Earth's composition reveal an order of magnitude uncertainty in the amount of radiogenic power driving mantle dynamics. Together with established geoscientific disciplines (seismology, geodynamics, petrology, mineral physics), experimental particle physics now brings additional constraints to our understanding of mantle energetics. Measurements of the Earth's flux of geoneutrinos, electron antineutrinos emitted in β- decays of naturally occurring radionuclides, reveal the amount of uranium and thorium in the Earth and set limits on the amount of radiogenic power in the planet. Comparison of the flux measured at large underground neutrino experiments with geologically informed predictions of geoneutrino emission from the crust provide the critical test needed to define the mantle's radiogenic power. Measuring geoneutrinos at oceanic locations, distant from nuclear reactors and continental crust, would best reveal the mantle flux and by performing a coarse scale geoneutrino tomography could even test the hypothesis of large heterogeneous structures in deep mantle enriched in heat-producing elements. The current geoneutrino detecting experiments, KamLAND in Japan and Borexino in Italy, will by year ˜ 2020 be supplemented with three more experiments: SNO+ in Canada, and JUNO and Jinping in China. We predict the geoneutrino flux at all experimental sites. Within ˜ 8 years from today, the combination of data from all experiments will exclude end-member compositional models of the silicate Earth at the 1σ level, reveal the radiogenic contribution to the global surface heat loss, and provide tight limits on radiogenic power in the Earth's mantle. Additionally, we discuss how the geoneutrino measurements at the three relatively near-lying (≤ 3000 km) detectors KamLAND, JUNO, and Jinping may be harnessed to improve the regional models of the lithosphere. Šrámek, O. et al. Revealing the Earth's mantle from the tallest mountains using the Jinping Neutrino Experiment. Sci. Rep. 6, 33034; doi:10.1038/srep33034 (2016).

Health effects model for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part I. Introduction, integration, and summary. Part II. Scientific basis for health effects models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Evans, J.S.; Moeller, D.W.; Cooper, D.W.

1985-07-01

Analysis of the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents requires models for predicting early health effects, cancers and benign thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Since the publication of the Reactor Safety Study, additional information on radiological health effects has become available. This report summarizes the efforts of a program designed to provide revised health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence modeling. The new models for early effects address four causes of mortality and nine categories of morbidity. The models for early effects are based upon two parameter Weibull functions. They permit evaluation of the influence ofmore » dose protraction and address the issue of variation in radiosensitivity among the population. The piecewise-linear dose-response models used in the Reactor Safety Study to predict cancers and thyroid nodules have been replaced by linear and linear-quadratic models. The new models reflect the most recently reported results of the follow-up of the survivors of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and permit analysis of both morbidity and mortality. The new models for genetic effects allow prediction of genetic risks in each of the first five generations after an accident and include information on the relative severity of various classes of genetic effects. The uncertainty in modeloling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of risks. An approach is outlined for summarizing the health consequences of nuclear power plant accidents. 298 refs., 9 figs., 49 tabs.« less

Exploring the Effects of Low Power Schemas in Mothers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mills, Rosemary S. L.

1999-01-01

Assessed whether low perceived maternal power and temperamentally fearful preschool-aged daughters predicted subsequent maternal overcontrol and internalizing symptoms in daughters 2 years later. Found that low perceived maternal power predicted subsequent maternal overcontrol with initially fearful daughters but did not predict subsequent…

Development of a thermal storage module using modified anhydrous sodium hydroxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rice, R. E.; Rowny, P. E.

1980-01-01

The laboratory scale testing of a modified anhydrous NaOH latent heat storage concept for small solar thermal power systems such as total energy systems utilizing organic Rankine systems is discussed. A diagnostic test on the thermal energy storage module and an investigation of alternative heat transfer fluids and heat exchange concepts are specifically addressed. A previously developed computer simulation model is modified to predict the performance of the module in a solar total energy system environment. In addition, the computer model is expanded to investigate parametrically the incorporation of a second heat exchange inside the module which will vaporize and superheat the Rankine cycle power fluid.

Indentation law for composite laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, S. H.

1981-01-01

Static indentation tests are described for glass/epoxy and graphite/epoxy composite laminates with steel balls as the indentor. Beam specimens clamped at various spans were used for the tests. Loading, unloading, and reloading data were obtained and fitted into power laws. Results show that: (1) contact behavior is not appreciably affected by the span; (2) loading and reloading curves seem to follow the 1.5 power law; and (3) unloading curves are described quite well by a 2.5 power law. In addition, values were determined for the critical indentation, alpha sub cr which can be used to predict permanent indentations in unloading. Since alpha sub cr only depends on composite material properties, only the loading and an unloading curve are needed to establish the complete loading-unloading-reloading behavior.

Radiative Performance of Rare Earth Garnet Thin Film Selective Emitters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lowe, Roland A.; Chubb, Donald L.; Good, Brian S.

1994-01-01

In this paper we present the first emitter efficiency results for the thin film 40 percent Er-1.5 percent Ho YAG (Yttrium Aluminum Garnet, Y3Al5O12) and 25 percent Ho YAG selective emitter at 1500 K with a platinum substrate. Spectral emittance and emissive power measurements were made (1.2 less than lambda less than 3.2 microns). Emitter efficiency and power density are significantly improved with the addition of multiple rare earth dopants. Predicted efficiency results are presented for an optimized (equal power density in the Er, (4)I(sub 15/2)-(4)I(sub 13/2) at 1.5 microns, and Ho, (5)I(sub 7)-(5)I(sub 8) at 2.0 micron emission bands) Er-Ho YAG thin film selective emitter.

The Applications of NASA Mission Technologies to the Greening of Human Impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sims, Michael H.

2009-01-01

I will give an overview talk about flight software systems, robotics technologies and modeling for energy minimization as applied to vehicles and buildings infrastructures. A dominant issue in both design and operations of robotic spacecraft is the minimization of energy use. In the design and building of spacecraft increased power is acquired only at the cost of additional mass and volumes and ultimately cost. Consequently, interplanetary spacecrafts are designed to have the minimum essential power and those designs often incorporate careful timing of all power use. Operationally, the availability of power is the most influential constraint for the use of planetary surface robots, such as the Mars Exploration Rovers. The amount of driving done, the amount of science accomplished and indeed the survivability of the spacecraft itself is determined by the power available for use. For the Mars Exploration Rovers there are four tools which are used: (1) models of the rover and it s thermal and power use (2) predictive environmental models of power input and thermal environment (3) fine grained manipulation of power use (4) optimization modeling and planning tools. In this talk I will discuss possible applications of this methodology to minimizing power use on Earth, especially in buildings.

Predicting the performance of a power amplifier using large-signal circuit simulations of an AlGaN/GaN HFET model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilbro, Griff L.; Hou, Danqiong; Yin, Hong; Trew, Robert J.

2009-02-01

We have quantitatively modeled the conduction current and charge storage of an HFET in terms its physical dimensions and material properties. For DC or small-signal RF operation, no adjustable parameters are necessary to predict the terminal characteristics of the device. Linear performance measures such as small-signal gain and input admittance can be predicted directly from the geometric structure and material properties assumed for the device design. We have validated our model at low-frequency against experimental I-V measurements and against two-dimensional device simulations. We discuss our recent extension of our model to include a larger class of electron velocity-field curves. We also discuss the recent reformulation of our model to facilitate its implementation in commercial large-signal high-frequency circuit simulators. Large signal RF operation is more complex. First, the highest CW microwave power is fundamentally bounded by a brief, reversible channel breakdown in each RF cycle. Second, the highest experimental measurements of efficiency, power, or linearity always require harmonic load pull and possibly also harmonic source pull. Presently, our model accounts for these facts with an adjustable breakdown voltage and with adjustable load impedances and source impedances for the fundamental frequency and its harmonics. This has allowed us to validate our model for large signal RF conditions by simultaneously fitting experimental measurements of output power, gain, and power added efficiency of real devices. We show that the resulting model can be used to compare alternative device designs in terms of their large signal performance, such as their output power at 1dB gain compression or their third order intercept points. In addition, the model provides insight into new device physics features enabled by the unprecedented current and voltage levels of AlGaN/GaN HFETs, including non-ohmic resistance in the source access regions and partial depletion of the 2DEG in the drain access region.

Preschool Neuropsychological Measures as Predictors of Later Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder

PubMed Central

Breaux, Rosanna P.; Griffith, Shayl F.; Harvey, Elizabeth A.

2016-01-01

The present study examined preschool neuropsychological measures as predictors of school-age attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Participants included 168 children (91 males) who completed neuropsychological measures at ages 3 and 4, and who were evaluated for ADHD and oppositional defiant disorder at age 6. The Conners’ Kiddie Continuous Performance Test (K-CPT), NEPSY Statue subtest, and a delay aversion task significantly distinguished at-risk children who later did and did not meet criteria for ADHD, with poor to fair overall predictive power, specificity, and sensitivity. However, only the K-CPT ADHD Confidence Index and battery added incremental predictive validity beyond early ADHD symptoms. This battery approach, which required impairment on at least 2 of the 3 significant measures, yielded fair overall predictive power, specificity, and sensitivity, and correctly classified 67% of children. In addition, there was some support for the specificity hypothesis, with evidence that cool executive function measures (K-CPT and Statue subtest) tended to predict inattentive symptoms. These findings suggest that neuropsychological deficits are evident by preschool-age in children with ADHD, but neuropsychological tests may still misclassify approximately one-third of children if used alone. Thus, neuropsychological measures may be a useful component of early ADHD assessments, but should be used with caution and in combination with other assessment methods. PMID:26936037

Artificial neural network approach to predict surgical site infection after free-flap reconstruction in patients receiving surgery for head and neck cancer

PubMed Central

Kuo, Pao-Jen; Wu, Shao-Chun; Chien, Peng-Chen; Chang, Shu-Shya; Rau, Cheng-Shyuan; Tai, Hsueh-Ling; Peng, Shu-Hui; Lin, Yi-Chun; Chen, Yi-Chun; Hsieh, Hsiao-Yun; Hsieh, Ching-Hua

2018-01-01

Background The aim of this study was to develop an effective surgical site infection (SSI) prediction model in patients receiving free-flap reconstruction after surgery for head and neck cancer using artificial neural network (ANN), and to compare its predictive power with that of conventional logistic regression (LR). Materials and methods There were 1,836 patients with 1,854 free-flap reconstructions and 438 postoperative SSIs in the dataset for analysis. They were randomly assigned tin ratio of 7:3 into a training set and a test set. Based on comprehensive characteristics of patients and diseases in the absence or presence of operative data, prediction of SSI was performed at two time points (pre-operatively and post-operatively) with a feed-forward ANN and the LR models. In addition to the calculated accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity, the predictive performance of ANN and LR were assessed based on area under the curve (AUC) measures of receiver operator characteristic curves and Brier score. Results ANN had a significantly higher AUC (0.892) of post-operative prediction and AUC (0.808) of pre-operative prediction than LR (both P<0.0001). In addition, there was significant higher AUC of post-operative prediction than pre-operative prediction by ANN (p<0.0001). With the highest AUC and the lowest Brier score (0.090), the post-operative prediction by ANN had the highest overall predictive performance. Conclusion The post-operative prediction by ANN had the highest overall performance in predicting SSI after free-flap reconstruction in patients receiving surgery for head and neck cancer. PMID:29568393

Machine Learning Based Multi-Physical-Model Blending for Enhancing Renewable Energy Forecast -- Improvement via Situation Dependent Error Correction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Siyuan; Hwang, Youngdeok; Khabibrakhmanov, Ildar

With increasing penetration of solar and wind energy to the total energy supply mix, the pressing need for accurate energy forecasting has become well-recognized. Here we report the development of a machine-learning based model blending approach for statistically combining multiple meteorological models for improving the accuracy of solar/wind power forecast. Importantly, we demonstrate that in addition to parameters to be predicted (such as solar irradiance and power), including additional atmospheric state parameters which collectively define weather situations as machine learning input provides further enhanced accuracy for the blended result. Functional analysis of variance shows that the error of individual modelmore » has substantial dependence on the weather situation. The machine-learning approach effectively reduces such situation dependent error thus produces more accurate results compared to conventional multi-model ensemble approaches based on simplistic equally or unequally weighted model averaging. Validation over an extended period of time results show over 30% improvement in solar irradiance/power forecast accuracy compared to forecasts based on the best individual model.« less

Model predictive direct power control for active power decoupled single-phase quasi- Z -source inverter

DOE PAGES

Liu, Yushan; Ge, Baoming; Abu-Rub, Haitham; ...

2016-06-14

In this study, the active power filter (APF) that consists of a half-bridge leg and an ac capacitor is integrated in the single-phase quasi-Z-source inverter (qZSI) in this paper to avoid the second harmonic power flowing into the dc side. The capacitor of APF buffers the second harmonic power of the load, and the ac capacitor allows highly pulsating ac voltage, so that the capacitances of both dc and ac sides can be small. A model predictive direct power control (DPC) is further proposed to achieve the purpose of this newtopology through predicting the capacitor voltage of APF at eachmore » sampling period and ensuring the APF power to track the second harmonic power of single-phase qZSI. Simulation and experimental results verify the model predictive DPC for the APF-integrated single-phase qZSI.« less

Potentiality Prediction of Electric Power Replacement Based on Power Market Development Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Bo; Yang, Shuo; Liu, Qiang; Lin, Jingyi; Zhao, Le; Liu, Chang; Li, Bin

2017-05-01

The application of electric power replacement plays an important role in promoting the development of energy conservation and emission reduction in our country. To exploit the potentiality of regional electric power replacement, the regional GDP (gross domestic product) and energy consumption are taken as potentiality evaluation indicators. The principal component factors are extracted with PCA (principal component analysis), and the integral potentiality analysis is made to the potentiality of electric power replacement in the national various regions; a region is taken as a research object, and the potentiality of electric power replacement is defined and quantified. The analytical model for the potentiality of multi-scenario electric power replacement is developed, and prediction is made to the energy consumption with the grey prediction model. The relevant theoretical research is utilized to realize prediction analysis on the potentiality amount of multi-scenario electric power replacement.

Model predictive direct power control for active power decoupled single-phase quasi- Z -source inverter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Yushan; Ge, Baoming; Abu-Rub, Haitham

In this study, the active power filter (APF) that consists of a half-bridge leg and an ac capacitor is integrated in the single-phase quasi-Z-source inverter (qZSI) in this paper to avoid the second harmonic power flowing into the dc side. The capacitor of APF buffers the second harmonic power of the load, and the ac capacitor allows highly pulsating ac voltage, so that the capacitances of both dc and ac sides can be small. A model predictive direct power control (DPC) is further proposed to achieve the purpose of this newtopology through predicting the capacitor voltage of APF at eachmore » sampling period and ensuring the APF power to track the second harmonic power of single-phase qZSI. Simulation and experimental results verify the model predictive DPC for the APF-integrated single-phase qZSI.« less

Bayesian predictive power: choice of prior and some recommendations for its use as probability of success in drug development.

PubMed

Rufibach, Kaspar; Burger, Hans Ulrich; Abt, Markus

2016-09-01

Bayesian predictive power, the expectation of the power function with respect to a prior distribution for the true underlying effect size, is routinely used in drug development to quantify the probability of success of a clinical trial. Choosing the prior is crucial for the properties and interpretability of Bayesian predictive power. We review recommendations on the choice of prior for Bayesian predictive power and explore its features as a function of the prior. The density of power values induced by a given prior is derived analytically and its shape characterized. We find that for a typical clinical trial scenario, this density has a u-shape very similar, but not equal, to a β-distribution. Alternative priors are discussed, and practical recommendations to assess the sensitivity of Bayesian predictive power to its input parameters are provided. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

DNA methylation-based measures of biological age: meta-analysis predicting time to death.

PubMed

Chen, Brian H; Marioni, Riccardo E; Colicino, Elena; Peters, Marjolein J; Ward-Caviness, Cavin K; Tsai, Pei-Chien; Roetker, Nicholas S; Just, Allan C; Demerath, Ellen W; Guan, Weihua; Bressler, Jan; Fornage, Myriam; Studenski, Stephanie; Vandiver, Amy R; Moore, Ann Zenobia; Tanaka, Toshiko; Kiel, Douglas P; Liang, Liming; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel; Lunetta, Kathryn L; Murabito, Joanne M; Bandinelli, Stefania; Hernandez, Dena G; Melzer, David; Nalls, Michael; Pilling, Luke C; Price, Timothy R; Singleton, Andrew B; Gieger, Christian; Holle, Rolf; Kretschmer, Anja; Kronenberg, Florian; Kunze, Sonja; Linseisen, Jakob; Meisinger, Christine; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Waldenberger, Melanie; Visscher, Peter M; Shah, Sonia; Wray, Naomi R; McRae, Allan F; Franco, Oscar H; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G; Absher, Devin; Assimes, Themistocles; Levine, Morgan E; Lu, Ake T; Tsao, Philip S; Hou, Lifang; Manson, JoAnn E; Carty, Cara L; LaCroix, Andrea Z; Reiner, Alexander P; Spector, Tim D; Feinberg, Andrew P; Levy, Daniel; Baccarelli, Andrea; van Meurs, Joyce; Bell, Jordana T; Peters, Annette; Deary, Ian J; Pankow, James S; Ferrucci, Luigi; Horvath, Steve

2016-09-28

Estimates of biological age based on DNA methylation patterns, often referred to as "epigenetic age", "DNAm age", have been shown to be robust biomarkers of age in humans. We previously demonstrated that independent of chronological age, epigenetic age assessed in blood predicted all-cause mortality in four human cohorts. Here, we expanded our original observation to 13 different cohorts for a total sample size of 13,089 individuals, including three racial/ethnic groups. In addition, we examined whether incorporating information on blood cell composition into the epigenetic age metrics improves their predictive power for mortality. All considered measures of epigenetic age acceleration were predictive of mortality (p≤8.2x10 -9 ) , independent of chronological age, even after adjusting for additional risk factors (p<5.4x10 -4 ) , and within the racial/ethnic groups that we examined (non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics, African Americans). Epigenetic age estimates that incorporated information on blood cell composition led to the smallest p-values for time to death (p=7.5x10 -43 ). Overall, this study a) strengthens the evidence that epigenetic age predicts all-cause mortality above and beyond chronological age and traditional risk factors, and b) demonstrates that epigenetic age estimates that incorporate information on blood cell counts lead to highly significant associations with all-cause mortality.

Transmembrane Topology and Signal Peptide Prediction Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

PubMed Central

Reynolds, Sheila M.; Käll, Lukas; Riffle, Michael E.; Bilmes, Jeff A.; Noble, William Stafford

2008-01-01

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been successfully applied to the tasks of transmembrane protein topology prediction and signal peptide prediction. In this paper we expand upon this work by making use of the more powerful class of dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). Our model, Philius, is inspired by a previously published HMM, Phobius, and combines a signal peptide submodel with a transmembrane submodel. We introduce a two-stage DBN decoder that combines the power of posterior decoding with the grammar constraints of Viterbi-style decoding. Philius also provides protein type, segment, and topology confidence metrics to aid in the interpretation of the predictions. We report a relative improvement of 13% over Phobius in full-topology prediction accuracy on transmembrane proteins, and a sensitivity and specificity of 0.96 in detecting signal peptides. We also show that our confidence metrics correlate well with the observed precision. In addition, we have made predictions on all 6.3 million proteins in the Yeast Resource Center (YRC) database. This large-scale study provides an overall picture of the relative numbers of proteins that include a signal-peptide and/or one or more transmembrane segments as well as a valuable resource for the scientific community. All DBNs are implemented using the Graphical Models Toolkit. Source code for the models described here is available at http://noble.gs.washington.edu/proj/philius. A Philius Web server is available at http://www.yeastrc.org/philius, and the predictions on the YRC database are available at http://www.yeastrc.org/pdr. PMID:18989393

Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System for Turbofan Engines. Volume 3; Validation and Test Cases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morin, Bruce L.

2010-01-01

Pratt & Whitney has developed a Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System (BFaNS) for turbofan engines. This system computes the noise generated by turbulence impinging on the leading edges of the fan and fan exit guide vane, and noise generated by boundary-layer turbulence passing over the fan trailing edge. BFaNS has been validated on three fan rigs that were tested during the NASA Advanced Subsonic Technology Program (AST). The predicted noise spectra agreed well with measured data. The predicted effects of fan speed, vane count, and vane sweep also agreed well with measurements. The noise prediction system consists of two computer programs: Setup_BFaNS and BFaNS. Setup_BFaNS converts user-specified geometry and flow-field information into a BFaNS input file. From this input file, BFaNS computes the inlet and aft broadband sound power spectra generated by the fan and FEGV. The output file from BFaNS contains the inlet, aft and total sound power spectra from each noise source. This report is the third volume of a three-volume set documenting the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System: Volume 1: Setup_BFaNS User s Manual and Developer s Guide; Volume 2: BFaNS User s Manual and Developer s Guide; and Volume 3: Validation and Test Cases. The present volume begins with an overview of the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System, followed by validation studies that were done on three fan rigs. It concludes with recommended improvements and additional studies for BFaNS.

Power maximization of a point absorber wave energy converter using improved model predictive control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milani, Farideh; Moghaddam, Reihaneh Kardehi

2017-08-01

This paper considers controlling and maximizing the absorbed power of wave energy converters for irregular waves. With respect to physical constraints of the system, a model predictive control is applied. Irregular waves' behavior is predicted by Kalman filter method. Owing to the great influence of controller parameters on the absorbed power, these parameters are optimized by imperialist competitive algorithm. The results illustrate the method's efficiency in maximizing the extracted power in the presence of unknown excitation force which should be predicted by Kalman filter.

A New Hybrid Spatio-temporal Model for Estimating Daily Multi-year PM2.5 Concentrations Across Northeastern USA Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kloog, Itai; Chudnovsky, Alexandra A.; Just, Allan C.; Nordio, Francesco; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A.; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Schwartz, Joel

2014-01-01

The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter PM(sub 2.5) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data.We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM(sub 2.5) at a 1X 1 km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003-2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1 X 1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM(sub 2.5) measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R(sup 2) = 0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R(sup 2) = 0.87, R(sup)2 = 0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions and will be useful in reconstructing exposure histories for epidemiological studies across this region.

A New Hybrid Spatio-Temporal Model For Estimating Daily Multi-Year PM2.5 Concentrations Across Northeastern USA Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth Data.

PubMed

Kloog, Itai; Chudnovsky, Alexandra A; Just, Allan C; Nordio, Francesco; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Schwartz, Joel

2014-10-01

The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data. We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM 2.5 at a 1×1km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003-2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1×1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM 2.5 measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R 2 =0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R 2 =0.87, R 2 =0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions and will be useful in reconstructing exposure histories for epidemiological studies across this region.

A New Hybrid Spatio-Temporal Model For Estimating Daily Multi-Year PM2.5 Concentrations Across Northeastern USA Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth Data

PubMed Central

Kloog, Itai; Chudnovsky, Alexandra A.; Just, Allan C.; Nordio, Francesco; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A.; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Schwartz, Joel

2017-01-01

Background The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter (PM2.5) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. Methods We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data. We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM2.5 at a 1×1km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003–2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1×1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM2.5 measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. Results Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R2=0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R2=0.87, R2=0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). Conclusion Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions and will be useful in reconstructing exposure histories for epidemiological studies across this region. PMID:28966552

ELECTROKINETIC DENSIFICATION OF COAL FINES IN WASTE PONDS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

E. James Davis

1999-12-18

The objective of this research was to demonstrate that electrokinetics can be used to remove colloidal coal and mineral particles from coal-washing ponds and lakes without the addition of chemical additives such as salts and polymeric flocculants. The specific objectives were: Design and develop a scaleable electrophoresis apparatus to clarify suspensions of colloidal coal and clay particles; Demonstrate the separation process using polluted waste water from the coal-washing facilities at the coal-fired power plants in Centralia, WA; Develop a mathematical model of the process to predict the rate of clarification and the suspension electrical properties needed for scale up.

A Partnership between a Midwest Community College and the Highly Regulated Power Production Industry: A Case Study Regarding the Development of an Energy Production Technology Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flowers, Kenneth W.

2015-01-01

With nearly every industry predicting severe employee shortages, the available worker pipeline, including the employed, may need to upgrade their skills. In addition, the number of jobs available will soon exceed the number of available workers, even if all the workers were skilled. This study investigated the perceptions held by key individuals…

Pathway-Based Kernel Boosting for the Analysis of Genome-Wide Association Studies

PubMed Central

Manitz, Juliane; Burger, Patricia; Amos, Christopher I.; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Wichmann, Heinz-Erich; Kneib, Thomas; Bickeböller, Heike

2017-01-01

The analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) benefits from the investigation of biologically meaningful gene sets, such as gene-interaction networks (pathways). We propose an extension to a successful kernel-based pathway analysis approach by integrating kernel functions into a powerful algorithmic framework for variable selection, to enable investigation of multiple pathways simultaneously. We employ genetic similarity kernels from the logistic kernel machine test (LKMT) as base-learners in a boosting algorithm. A model to explain case-control status is created iteratively by selecting pathways that improve its prediction ability. We evaluated our method in simulation studies adopting 50 pathways for different sample sizes and genetic effect strengths. Additionally, we included an exemplary application of kernel boosting to a rheumatoid arthritis and a lung cancer dataset. Simulations indicate that kernel boosting outperforms the LKMT in certain genetic scenarios. Applications to GWAS data on rheumatoid arthritis and lung cancer resulted in sparse models which were based on pathways interpretable in a clinical sense. Kernel boosting is highly flexible in terms of considered variables and overcomes the problem of multiple testing. Additionally, it enables the prediction of clinical outcomes. Thus, kernel boosting constitutes a new, powerful tool in the analysis of GWAS data and towards the understanding of biological processes involved in disease susceptibility. PMID:28785300

Pathway-Based Kernel Boosting for the Analysis of Genome-Wide Association Studies.

PubMed

Friedrichs, Stefanie; Manitz, Juliane; Burger, Patricia; Amos, Christopher I; Risch, Angela; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Wichmann, Heinz-Erich; Kneib, Thomas; Bickeböller, Heike; Hofner, Benjamin

2017-01-01

The analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) benefits from the investigation of biologically meaningful gene sets, such as gene-interaction networks (pathways). We propose an extension to a successful kernel-based pathway analysis approach by integrating kernel functions into a powerful algorithmic framework for variable selection, to enable investigation of multiple pathways simultaneously. We employ genetic similarity kernels from the logistic kernel machine test (LKMT) as base-learners in a boosting algorithm. A model to explain case-control status is created iteratively by selecting pathways that improve its prediction ability. We evaluated our method in simulation studies adopting 50 pathways for different sample sizes and genetic effect strengths. Additionally, we included an exemplary application of kernel boosting to a rheumatoid arthritis and a lung cancer dataset. Simulations indicate that kernel boosting outperforms the LKMT in certain genetic scenarios. Applications to GWAS data on rheumatoid arthritis and lung cancer resulted in sparse models which were based on pathways interpretable in a clinical sense. Kernel boosting is highly flexible in terms of considered variables and overcomes the problem of multiple testing. Additionally, it enables the prediction of clinical outcomes. Thus, kernel boosting constitutes a new, powerful tool in the analysis of GWAS data and towards the understanding of biological processes involved in disease susceptibility.

FOUR Score Predicts Early Outcome in Patients After Traumatic Brain Injury.

PubMed

Nyam, Tee-Tau Eric; Ao, Kam-Hou; Hung, Shu-Yu; Shen, Mei-Li; Yu, Tzu-Chieh; Kuo, Jinn-Rung

2017-04-01

The aim of the study was to determine whether the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness (FOUR) score, which includes eyes opening (E), motor function (M), brainstem reflex (B), and respiratory pattern (R), can be used as an alternate method to the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) in predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients. From January 2015 to June 2015, patients with isolated TBI admitted to the ICU were enrolled. Three advanced practice nurses administered the FOUR score, GCS, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), and Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System (TISS) concurrently from ICU admissions. The endpoint of observation was mortality when the patients left the ICU. Data are presented as frequency with percentages, mean with standard deviation, or median with interquartile range. Each measurement tool used area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to compare the predictive power between these four tools. In addition, the difference between survival and death was estimated using the Wilcoxon rank sum test. From 55 TBI patients, males (72.73 %) were represented more than females, the mean age was 63.1 ± 17.9, and 19 of 55 observations (35 %) had a maximum FOUR score of 16. The overall mortality rate was 14.6 %. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 74.47 % for the FOUR score, 74.73 % for the GCS, 81.78 % for the APACHE II, and 53.32 % for the TISS. The FOUR score has similar predictive power of mortality compared to the GCS and APACHE II. Each of the parameters-E, M, B, and R-of the FOUR score showed a significant difference between mortality and survival group, while the verbal and eye-opening components of the GCS did not. Having similar predictive power of mortality compared to the GCS and APACHE II, the FOUR score can be used as an alternative in the prediction of early mortality in TBI patients in the ICU.

High-temperature creep properties and life predictions for T91 and T92 steels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, J. P.; Tu, S. H.; Sun, G. L.; Zhu, X. W.; Tan, L. J.; Hu, B.

2018-01-01

9-11%Cr heat-resistant steels are widely used in high-temperature and high-pressure boilers of advanced power plants. In the current paper, high-temperature creep behaviors of T91 and T92 steels have been investigated. Creep tests were performed for both steels at varied temperatures. The creep mechanisms of T91 and T92 steels were elucidated by analyzing the creep rupture data of the two steels. In addition, Manson-Haferd model was employed to predict the creep life of T91 and T92 steels, the results of which indicate that the Manson-Haferd model works well for the two steels.

Breast magnetic resonance elastography: a review of clinical work and future perspectives.

PubMed

Bohte, A E; Nelissen, J L; Runge, J H; Holub, O; Lambert, S A; de Graaf, L; Kolkman, S; van der Meij, S; Stoker, J; Strijkers, G J; Nederveen, A J; Sinkus, R

2018-05-30

This review on magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) of the breast provides an overview of available literature and describes current developments in the field of breast MRE, including new transducer technology for data acquisition and multi-frequency-derived power-law behaviour of tissue. Moreover, we discuss the future potential of breast MRE, which goes beyond its original application as an additional tool in differentiating benign from malignant breast lesions. These areas of ongoing and future research include MRE for pre-operative tumour delineation, staging, monitoring and predicting response to treatment, as well as prediction of the metastatic potential of primary tumours. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Transient Simulation of the Multi-SERTTA Experiment with MAMMOTH

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ortensi, Javier; Baker, Benjamin; Wang, Yaqi

This work details the MAMMOTH reactor physics simulations of the Static Environment Rodlet Transient Test Apparatus (SERTTA) conducted at Idaho National Laboratory in FY-2017. TREAT static-environment experiment vehicles are being developed to enable transient testing of Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) type fuel specimens, including fuel concepts with enhanced accident tolerance (Accident Tolerant Fuels, ATF). The MAMMOTH simulations include point reactor kinetics as well as spatial dynamics for a temperature-limited transient. The strongly coupled multi-physics solutions of the neutron flux and temperature fields are second order accurate both in the spatial and temporal domains. MAMMOTH produces pellet stack powers that are within 1.5% of the Monte Carlo reference solutions. Some discrepancies between the MCNP model used in the design of the flux collars and the Serpent/MAMMOTH models lead to higher power and energy deposition values in Multi-SERTTA unit 1. The TREAT core results compare well with the safety case computed with point reactor kinetics in RELAP5-3D. The reactor period is 44 msec, which corresponds to a reactivity insertion of 2.685% delta k/kmore » $. The peak core power in the spatial dynamics simulation is 431 MW, which the point kinetics model over-predicts by 12%. The pulse width at half the maximum power is 0.177 sec. Subtle transient effects are apparent at the beginning insertion in the experimental samples due to the control rod removal. Additional difference due to transient effects are observed in the sample powers and enthalpy. The time dependence of the power coupling factor (PCF) is calculated for the various fuel stacks of the Multi-SERTTA vehicle. Sample temperatures in excess of 3100 K, the melting point UO$$_2$$, are computed with the adiabatic heat transfer model. The planned shaped-transient might introduce additional effects that cannot be predicted with PRK models. Future modeling will be focused on the shaped-transient by improving the control rod models in MAMMOTH and adding the BISON thermo-elastic models and thermal-fluids heat transfer.« less

Development and design of photovoltaic power prediction system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhijia; Zhou, Hai; Cheng, Xu

2018-02-01

In order to reduce the impact of power grid safety caused by volatility and randomness of the energy produced in photovoltaic power plants, this paper puts forward a construction scheme on photovoltaic power generation prediction system, introducing the technical requirements, system configuration and function of each module, and discussing the main technical features of the platform software development. The scheme has been applied in many PV power plants in the northwest of China. It shows that the system can produce reasonable prediction results, providing a right guidance for dispatching and efficient running for PV power plant.

A Experimental Investigation of Fast Ion Confinement on the Isx-B Tokamak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carnevali, Antonino

An experimental investigation of fast ion confinement was conducted on the ISX-B tokamak at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory to ascertain that the beam ion behavior is properly described by classical processes. Data were collected during tangential injection of H('0) beams (co-, counter -, and co- plus counter-) at power levels up to 1.9 MW in low plasma current (I(,p) = 80 to 215 kA) D('+) discharges. Experimental energy spectra of energetic charge-exchange neutrals along several sightlines in the torus equatorial plane are compared with the predictions of Fokker-Planck and orbit-following Monte Carlo calculations to verify the validity of classical theory. A further tool used in this investigation is the comparison of predicted and experimental beam-plasma neutron emission during injection of beams doped with 3% D('0). Both the fast neutral spectra and the beam-plasma neutron emission are in close agreement (within factors of <2) with the calculated values under a variety of plasma parameters, beam parameters, and injection geometries. Furthermore, measured decay rates of the beam-plasma neutron production following beam turn-off show that the beam slowing down --at energies close to the injection energy and in the plasma core-- is classical within a 30% uncertainty. These results demonstrate that classical theory describes well the behavior of the beam ions. Moreover, MHD activity is shown not to cause enhanced fast ion losses in the ISX-B. Also, beam additivity experiments indicate that the fast ion density in the plasma volume is proportional to the injected beam power P(,b). An unresolved issue is whether the central fast ion density is linear with P(,b). In addition, the analysis of charge-exchange spectra is critically evaluated. It is shown that the analysis need be integrated with a knowledge of the orbit topology to correctly interpret the spectra. Cases where the zero banana width, Fokker-Planck calculation is adequate/inadequate to predict fast neutral spectra and power deposited in the plasma are discussed.

Finite Control Set Model Predictive Control for Multiple Distributed Generators Microgrids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babqi, Abdulrahman Jamal

This dissertation proposes two control strategies for AC microgrids that consist of multiple distributed generators (DGs). The control strategies are valid for both grid-connected and islanded modes of operation. In general, microgrid can operate as a stand-alone system (i.e., islanded mode) or while it is connected to the utility grid (i.e., grid connected mode). To enhance the performance of a micrgorid, a sophisticated control scheme should be employed. The control strategies of microgrids can be divided into primary and secondary controls. The primary control regulates the output active and reactive powers of each DG in grid-connected mode as well as the output voltage and frequency of each DG in islanded mode. The secondary control is responsible for regulating the microgrid voltage and frequency in the islanded mode. Moreover, it provides power sharing schemes among the DGs. In other words, the secondary control specifies the set points (i.e. reference values) for the primary controllers. In this dissertation, Finite Control Set Model Predictive Control (FCS-MPC) was proposed for controlling microgrids. FCS-MPC was used as the primary controller to regulate the output power of each DG (in the grid-connected mode) or the voltage of the point of DG coupling (in the islanded mode of operation). In the grid-connected mode, Direct Power Model Predictive Control (DPMPC) was implemented to manage the power flow between each DG and the utility grid. In the islanded mode, Voltage Model Predictive Control (VMPC), as the primary control, and droop control, as the secondary control, were employed to control the output voltage of each DG and system frequency. The controller was equipped with a supplementary current limiting technique in order to limit the output current of each DG in abnormal incidents. The control approach also enabled smooth transition between the two modes. The performance of the control strategy was investigated and verified using PSCAD/EMTDC software platform. This dissertation also proposes a control and power sharing strategy for small-scale microgrids in both grid-connected and islanded modes based on centralized FCS-MPC. In grid-connected mode, the controller was capable of managing the output power of each DG and enabling flexible power regulation between the microgrid and the utility grid. In islanded mode, the controller regulated the microgrid voltage and frequency, and provided a precise power sharing scheme among the DGs. In addition, the power sharing can be adjusted flexibly by changing the sharing ratio. The proposed control also enabled plug-and-play operation. Moreover, a smooth transition between the two modes of operation was achieved without any disturbance in the system. Case studies were carried out in order to validate the proposed control strategy with the PSCAD/EMTDA software package.

Predictive power of the DASA-IV: Variations in rating method and timescales.

PubMed

Nqwaku, Mphindisi; Draycott, Simon; Aldridge-Waddon, Luke; Bush, Emma-Louise; Tsirimokou, Alexandra; Jones, Dominic; Puzzo, Ignazio

2018-05-10

This project evaluated the predictive validity of the Dynamic Appraisal of Situational Aggression - Inpatient Version (DASA-IV) in a high-secure psychiatric hospital in the UK over 24 hours and over a single nursing shift. DASA-IV scores from three sequential nursing shifts over a 24-hour period were compared with the mean (average of three scores across the 24-hour period) and peak (highest of the three scores across the 24-hour period) scores across these shifts. In addition, scores from a single nursing shift were used to predict aggressive incidents over each of the following three shifts. The DASA-IV was completed by nursing staff during handover meetings, rating 43 male psychiatric inpatients over a period of 6 months. Data were compared to incident reports recorded over the same period. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and generalized estimating equations assessed the predictive ability of various DASA-IV scores over 24-hour and single-shift timescales. Scores from the DASA-IV based on a single shift had moderate predictive ability for aggressive incidents occurring the next calendar day, whereas scores based on all three shifts had excellent predictive ability. DASA-IV scores from a single shift showed moderate predictive ability for each of the following three shifts. The DASA-IV has excellent predictive ability for aggressive incidents within a secure setting when data are summarized over a 24-hour period, as opposed to when a single rating is taken. In addition, it has moderate value for predicting incidents over even shorter timescales. © 2018 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

Effect of Voltage Level on Power System Design for Solar Electric Propulsion Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerslake, Thomas W.

2003-01-01

This paper presents study results quantifying the benefits of higher voltage, electric power system designs for a typical solar electric propulsion spacecraft Earth orbiting mission. A conceptual power system architecture was defined and design points were generated for system voltages of 28-V, 50-V, 120-V, and 300-V using state-of-the-art or advanced technologies. A 300-V 'direct-drive' architecture was also analyzed to assess the benefits of directly powering the electric thruster from the photovoltaic array without up-conversion. Fortran and spreadsheet computational models were exercised to predict the performance and size power system components to meet spacecraft mission requirements. Pertinent space environments, such as electron and proton radiation, were calculated along the spiral trajectory. In addition, a simplified electron current collection model was developed to estimate photovoltaic array losses for the orbital plasma environment and that created by the thruster plume. The secondary benefits of power system mass savings for spacecraft propulsion and attitude control systems were also quantified. Results indicate that considerable spacecraft wet mass savings were achieved by the 300-V and 300-V direct-drive architectures.

Anodic microbial community diversity as a predictor of the power output of microbial fuel cells.

PubMed

Stratford, James P; Beecroft, Nelli J; Slade, Robert C T; Grüning, André; Avignone-Rossa, Claudio

2014-03-01

The relationship between the diversity of mixed-species microbial consortia and their electrogenic potential in the anodes of microbial fuel cells was examined using different diversity measures as predictors. Identical microbial fuel cells were sampled at multiple time-points. Biofilm and suspension communities were analysed by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis to calculate the number and relative abundance of species. Shannon and Simpson indices and richness were examined for association with power using bivariate and multiple linear regression, with biofilm DNA as an additional variable. In simple bivariate regressions, the correlation of Shannon diversity of the biofilm and power is stronger (r=0.65, p=0.001) than between power and richness (r=0.39, p=0.076), or between power and the Simpson index (r=0.5, p=0.018). Using Shannon diversity and biofilm DNA as predictors of power, a regression model can be constructed (r=0.73, p<0.001). Ecological parameters such as the Shannon index are predictive of the electrogenic potential of microbial communities. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Managing PV Power on Mars - MER Rovers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stella, Paul M.; Chin, Keith; Wood, Eric; Herman, Jennifer; Ewell, Richard

2009-01-01

The MER Rovers have recently completed over 5 years of operation! This is a remarkable demonstration of the capabilities of PV power on the Martian surface. The extended mission required the development of an efficient process to predict the power available to the rovers on a day-to-day basis. The performance of the MER solar arrays is quite unlike that of any other Space array and perhaps more akin to Terrestrial PV operation, although even severe by that comparison. The impact of unpredictable factors, such as atmospheric conditions and dust accumulation (and removal) on the panels limits the accurate prediction of array power to short time spans. Based on the above, it is clear that long term power predictions are not sufficiently accurate to allow for detailed long term planning. Instead, the power assessment is essentially a daily activity, effectively resetting the boundary points for the overall predictive power model. A typical analysis begins with the importing of the telemetry from each rover's previous day's power subsystem activities. This includes the array power generated, battery state-of-charge, rover power loads, and rover orientation, all as functions of time. The predicted performance for that day is compared to the actual performance to identify the extent of any differences. The model is then corrected for these changes. Details of JPL's MER power analysis procedure are presented, including the description of steps needed to provide the final prediction for the mission planners. A dust cleaning event of the solar array is also highlighted to illustrate the impact of Martian weather on solar array performance

Vibration Response Models of a Stiffened Aluminum Plate Excited by a Shaker

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cabell, Randolph H.

2008-01-01

Numerical models of structural-acoustic interactions are of interest to aircraft designers and the space program. This paper describes a comparison between two energy finite element codes, a statistical energy analysis code, a structural finite element code, and the experimentally measured response of a stiffened aluminum plate excited by a shaker. Different methods for modeling the stiffeners and the power input from the shaker are discussed. The results show that the energy codes (energy finite element and statistical energy analysis) accurately predicted the measured mean square velocity of the plate. In addition, predictions from an energy finite element code had the best spatial correlation with measured velocities. However, predictions from a considerably simpler, single subsystem, statistical energy analysis model also correlated well with the spatial velocity distribution. The results highlight a need for further work to understand the relationship between modeling assumptions and the prediction results.

Experimental validation of a sub-surface model of solar power for distributed marine sensor systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hahn, Gregory G.; Cantin, Heather P.; Shafer, Michael W.

2016-04-01

The capabilities of distributed sensor systems such as marine wildlife telemetry tags could be significantly enhanced through the integration of photovoltaic modules. Photovoltaic cells could be used to supplement the primary batteries for wildlife telemetry tags to allow for extended tag deployments, wherein larger amounts of data could be collected and transmitted in near real time. In this article, we present experimental results used to validate and improve key aspects of our original model for sub-surface solar power. We discuss the test methods and results, comparing analytic predictions to experimental results. In a previous work, we introduced a model for sub-surface solar power that used analytic models and empirical data to predict the solar irradiance available for harvest at any depth under the ocean's surface over the course of a year. This model presented underwater photovoltaic transduction as a viable means of supplementing energy for marine wildlife telemetry tags. The additional data provided by improvements in daily energy budgets would enhance the temporal and spatial comprehension of the host's activities and/or environments. Photovoltaic transduction is one method that has not been widely deployed in the sub-surface marine environments despite widespread use on terrestrial and avian species wildlife tag systems. Until now, the use of photovoltaic cells for underwater energy harvesting has generally been disregarded as a viable energy source in this arena. In addition to marine telemetry systems, photovoltaic energy harvesting systems could also serve as a means of energy supply for autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), as well as submersible buoys for oceanographic data collection.

NASA's Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) Project Unveils a New Geospatial Data Portal

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-03-16

NASA's Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) Project Unveils a New Geospatial Data Portal ... current POWER home page. The new POWER will include improved solar and meteorological data with all parameters available on a 0.5-degree ...

The Mira-Titan Universe. II. Matter Power Spectrum Emulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, Earl; Heitmann, Katrin; Kwan, Juliana; Upadhye, Amol; Bingham, Derek; Habib, Salman; Higdon, David; Pope, Adrian; Finkel, Hal; Frontiere, Nicholas

2017-09-01

We introduce a new cosmic emulator for the matter power spectrum covering eight cosmological parameters. Targeted at optical surveys, the emulator provides accurate predictions out to a wavenumber k˜ 5 Mpc-1 and redshift z≤slant 2. In addition to covering the standard set of ΛCDM parameters, massive neutrinos and a dynamical dark energy of state are included. The emulator is built on a sample set of 36 cosmological models, carefully chosen to provide accurate predictions over the wide and large parameter space. For each model, we have performed a high-resolution simulation, augmented with 16 medium-resolution simulations and TimeRG perturbation theory results to provide accurate coverage over a wide k-range; the data set generated as part of this project is more than 1.2Pbytes. With the current set of simulated models, we achieve an accuracy of approximately 4%. Because the sampling approach used here has established convergence and error-control properties, follow-up results with more than a hundred cosmological models will soon achieve ˜ 1 % accuracy. We compare our approach with other prediction schemes that are based on halo model ideas and remapping approaches. The new emulator code is publicly available.

Title: Freshwater phytoplankton responses to global warming.

PubMed

Wagner, Heiko; Fanesi, Andrea; Wilhelm, Christian

2016-09-20

Global warming alters species composition and function of freshwater ecosystems. However, the impact of temperature on primary productivity is not sufficiently understood and water quality models need to be improved in order to assess the quantitative and qualitative changes of aquatic communities. On the basis of experimental data, we demonstrate that the commonly used photosynthetic and water chemistry parameters alone are not sufficient for modeling phytoplankton growth under changing temperature regimes. We present some new aspects of the acclimation process with respect to temperature and how contrasting responses may be explained by a more complete physiological knowledge of the energy flow from photons to new biomass. We further suggest including additional bio-markers/traits for algal growth such as carbon allocation patterns to increase the explanatory power of such models. Although carbon allocation patterns are promising and functional cellular traits for growth prediction under different nutrient and light conditions, their predictive power still waits to be tested with respect to temperature. A great challenge for the near future will be the prediction of primary production efficiencies under the global change scenario using a uniform model for phytoplankton assemblages. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

The Mira-Titan Universe. II. Matter Power Spectrum Emulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lawrence, Earl; Heitmann, Katrin; Kwan, Juliana

We introduce a new cosmic emulator for the matter power spectrum covering eight cosmological parameters. Targeted at optical surveys, the emulator provides accurate predictions out to a wavenumber k similar to 5 Mpc(-1) and redshift z <= 2. In addition to covering the standard set of Lambda CDM parameters, massive neutrinos and a dynamical dark energy of state are included. The emulator is built on a sample set of 36 cosmological models, carefully chosen to provide accurate predictions over the wide and large parameter space. For each model, we have performed a high-resolution simulation, augmented with 16 medium-resolution simulations andmore » TimeRG perturbation theory results to provide accurate coverage over a wide k-range; the data set generated as part of this project is more than 1.2Pbytes. With the current set of simulated models, we achieve an accuracy of approximately 4%. Because the sampling approach used here has established convergence and error-control properties, follow-up results with more than a hundred cosmological models will soon achieve similar to 1% accuracy. We compare our approach with other prediction schemes that are based on halo model ideas and remapping approaches.« less

Neuromechanical sensor fusion yields highest accuracies in predicting ambulation mode transitions for trans-tibial amputees.

PubMed

Tkach, D C; Hargrove, L J

2013-01-01

Advances in battery and actuator technology have enabled clinical use of powered lower limb prostheses such as the BiOM Powered Ankle. To allow ambulation over various types of terrains, such devices rely on built-in mechanical sensors or manual actuation by the amputee to transition into an operational mode that is suitable for a given terrain. It is unclear if mechanical sensors alone can accurately modulate operational modes while voluntary actuation prevents seamless, naturalistic gait. Ensuring that the prosthesis is ready to accommodate new terrain types at first step is critical for user safety. EMG signals from patient's residual leg muscles may provide additional information to accurately choose the proper mode of prosthesis operation. Using a pattern recognition classifier we compared the accuracy of predicting 8 different mode transitions based on (1) prosthesis mechanical sensor output (2) EMG recorded from residual limb and (3) fusion of EMG and mechanical sensor data. Our findings indicate that the neuromechanical sensor fusion significantly decreases errors in predicting 10 mode transitions as compared to using either mechanical sensors or EMG alone (2.3±0.7% vs. 7.8±0.9% and 20.2±2.0% respectively).

Sparse network-based models for patient classification using fMRI

PubMed Central

Rosa, Maria J.; Portugal, Liana; Hahn, Tim; Fallgatter, Andreas J.; Garrido, Marta I.; Shawe-Taylor, John; Mourao-Miranda, Janaina

2015-01-01

Pattern recognition applied to whole-brain neuroimaging data, such as functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI), has proved successful at discriminating psychiatric patients from healthy participants. However, predictive patterns obtained from whole-brain voxel-based features are difficult to interpret in terms of the underlying neurobiology. Many psychiatric disorders, such as depression and schizophrenia, are thought to be brain connectivity disorders. Therefore, pattern recognition based on network models might provide deeper insights and potentially more powerful predictions than whole-brain voxel-based approaches. Here, we build a novel sparse network-based discriminative modeling framework, based on Gaussian graphical models and L1-norm regularized linear Support Vector Machines (SVM). In addition, the proposed framework is optimized in terms of both predictive power and reproducibility/stability of the patterns. Our approach aims to provide better pattern interpretation than voxel-based whole-brain approaches by yielding stable brain connectivity patterns that underlie discriminative changes in brain function between the groups. We illustrate our technique by classifying patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) and healthy participants, in two (event- and block-related) fMRI datasets acquired while participants performed a gender discrimination and emotional task, respectively, during the visualization of emotional valent faces. PMID:25463459

Communal and Agentic Interpersonal and Intergroup Motives Predict Preferences for Status Versus Power.

PubMed

Locke, Kenneth D; Heller, Sonja

2017-01-01

Seven studies involving 1,343 participants showed how circumplex models of social motives can help explain individual differences in preferences for status (having others' admiration) versus power (controlling valuable resources). Studies 1 to 3 and 7 concerned interpersonal motives in workplace contexts, and found that stronger communal motives (to have mutual trust, support, and cooperation) predicted being more attracted to status (but not power) and achieving more workplace status, while stronger agentic motives (to be firm, decisive, and influential) predicted being more attracted to and achieving more workplace power, and experiencing a stronger connection between workplace power and job satisfaction. Studies 4 to 6 found similar effects for intergroup motives: Stronger communal motives predicted wanting one's ingroup (e.g., country) to have status-but not power-relative to other groups. Finally, most people preferred status over power, and this was especially true for women, which was partially explained by women having stronger communal motives.

The predictive power of local properties of financial networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caraiani, Petre

2017-01-01

The literature on analyzing the dynamics of financial networks has focused so far on the predictive power of global measures of networks like entropy or index cohesive force. In this paper, I show that the local network properties have similar predictive power. I focus on key network measures like average path length, average degree or cluster coefficient, and also consider the diameter and the s-metric. Using Granger causality tests, I show that some of these measures have statistically significant prediction power with respect to the dynamics of aggregate stock market. Average path length is most robust relative to the frequency of data used or specification (index or growth rate). Most measures are found to have predictive power only for monthly frequency. Further evidences that support this view are provided through a simple regression model.

Predicting energy expenditure through hand rim propulsion power output in individuals who use wheelchairs.

PubMed

Conger, Scott A; Scott, Stacy N; Bassett, David R

2014-07-01

To examine the relationship between hand rim propulsion power and energy expenditure (EE) during wheelchair wheeling and to investigate whether adding other variables to the model could improve on the prediction of EE. Individuals who use manual wheelchairs (n=14) performed five different wheeling activities in a wheelchair with a PowerTap power meter hub built into the right rear wheel. Activities included wheeling on a smooth, level surface at three different speeds (4.5, 5.5 and 6.5 km/h), wheeling on a rubberised track at one speed (5.5 km/h) and wheeling on a sidewalk course that included uphill and downhill segments at a self-selected speed. EE was measured using a portable indirect calorimetry system. Stepwise linear regression was performed to predict EE from power output variables. A repeated-measures analysis of variance was used to compare the measured EE to the estimates from the power models. Bland-Altman plots were used to assess the agreement between the criterion values and the predicted values. EE and power were significantly correlated (r=0.694, p<0.001). Regression analysis yielded three significant prediction models utilising measured power; measured power and speed; and measured power, speed and heart rate. No significant differences were found between measured EE and any of the prediction models. EE can be accurately and precisely estimated based on hand rim propulsion power. These results indicate that power could be used as a method to assess EE in individuals who use wheelchairs. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

An Optimal Current Observer for Predictive Current Controlled Buck DC-DC Converters

PubMed Central

Min, Run; Chen, Chen; Zhang, Xiaodong; Zou, Xuecheng; Tong, Qiaoling; Zhang, Qiao

2014-01-01

In digital current mode controlled DC-DC converters, conventional current sensors might not provide isolation at a minimized price, power loss and size. Therefore, a current observer which can be realized based on the digital circuit itself, is a possible substitute. However, the observed current may diverge due to the parasitic resistors and the forward conduction voltage of the diode. Moreover, the divergence of the observed current will cause steady state errors in the output voltage. In this paper, an optimal current observer is proposed. It achieves the highest observation accuracy by compensating for all the known parasitic parameters. By employing the optimal current observer-based predictive current controller, a buck converter is implemented. The converter has a convergently and accurately observed inductor current, and shows preferable transient response than the conventional voltage mode controlled converter. Besides, costs, power loss and size are minimized since the strategy requires no additional hardware for current sensing. The effectiveness of the proposed optimal current observer is demonstrated experimentally. PMID:24854061

Cell design concepts for aqueous lithium-oxygen batteries: A model-based assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grübl, Daniel; Bessler, Wolfgang G.

2015-11-01

Seven cell design concepts for aqueous (alkaline) lithium-oxygen batteries are investigated using a multi-physics continuum model for predicting cell behavior and performance in terms of the specific energy and specific power. Two different silver-based cathode designs (a gas diffusion electrode and a flooded cathode) and three different separator designs (a porous separator, a stirred separator chamber, and a redox-flow separator) are compared. Cathode and separator thicknesses are varied over a wide range (50 μm-20 mm) in order to identify optimum configurations. All designs show a considerable capacity-rate effect due to spatiotemporally inhomogeneous precipitation of solid discharge product LiOH·H2O. In addition, a cell design with flooded cathode and redox-flow separator including oxygen uptake within the external tank is suggested. For this design, the model predicts specific power up to 33 W/kg and specific energy up to 570 Wh/kg (gravimetric values of discharged cell including all cell components and catholyte except housing and piping).

Reliability of high-power QCW arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feeler, Ryan; Junghans, Jeremy; Remley, Jennifer; Schnurbusch, Don; Stephens, Ed

2010-02-01

Northrop Grumman Cutting Edge Optronics has developed a family of arrays for high-power QCW operation. These arrays are built using CTE-matched heat sinks and hard solder in order to maximize the reliability of the devices. A summary of a recent life test is presented in order to quantify the reliability of QCW arrays and associated laser gain modules. A statistical analysis of the raw lifetime data is presented in order to quantify the data in such a way that is useful for laser system designers. The life tests demonstrate the high level of reliability of these arrays in a number of operating regimes. For single-bar arrays, a MTTF of 19.8 billion shots is predicted. For four-bar samples, a MTTF of 14.6 billion shots is predicted. In addition, data representing a large pump source is analyzed and shown to have an expected lifetime of 13.5 billion shots. This corresponds to an expected operational lifetime of greater than ten thousand hours at repetition rates less than 370 Hz.

Power Relative to Body Mass Best Predicts Change in Core Temperature During Exercise-Heat Stress.

PubMed

Gibson, Oliver R; Willmott, Ashley G B; James, Carl A; Hayes, Mark; Maxwell, Neil S

2017-02-01

Gibson, OR, Willmott, AGB, James, CA, Hayes, M, and Maxwell, NS. Power relative to body mass best predicts change in core temperature during exercise-heat stress. J Strength Cond Res 31(2): 403-414, 2017-Controlling internal temperature is crucial when prescribing exercise-heat stress, particularly during interventions designed to induce thermoregulatory adaptations. This study aimed to determine the relationship between the rate of rectal temperature (Trec) increase, and various methods for prescribing exercise-heat stress, to identify the most efficient method of prescribing isothermic heat acclimation (HA) training. Thirty-five men cycled in hot conditions (40° C, 39% R.H.) for 29 ± 2 minutes. Subjects exercised at 60 ± 9% V[Combining Dot Above]O2peak, with methods for prescribing exercise retrospectively observed for each participant. Pearson product moment correlations were calculated for each prescriptive variable against the rate of change in Trec (° C·h), with stepwise multiple regressions performed on statistically significant variables (p ≤ 0.05). Linear regression identified the predicted intensity required to increase Trec by 1.0-2.0° C between 20- and 45-minute periods and the duration taken to increase Trec by 1.5° C in response to incremental intensities to guide prescription. Significant (p ≤ 0.05) relationships with the rate of change in Trec were observed for prescriptions based on relative power (W·kg; r = 0.764), power (%Powermax; r = 0.679), rating of perceived exertion (RPE) (r = 0.577), V[Combining Dot Above]O2 (%V[Combining Dot Above]O2peak; r = 0.562), heart rate (HR) (%HRmax; r = 0.534), and thermal sensation (r = 0.311). Stepwise multiple regressions observed relative power and RPE as variables to improve the model (r = 0.791), with no improvement after inclusion of any anthropometric variable. Prescription of exercise under heat stress using power (W·kg or %Powermax) has the strongest relationship with the rate of change in Trec with no additional requirement to correct for body composition within a normal range. Practitioners should therefore prescribe exercise intensity using relative power during isothermic HA training to increase Trec efficiently and maximize adaptation.

Conditional power and predictive power based on right censored data with supplementary auxiliary information.

PubMed

Sun, Libo; Wan, Ying

2018-04-22

Conditional power and predictive power provide estimates of the probability of success at the end of the trial based on the information from the interim analysis. The observed value of the time to event endpoint at the interim analysis could be biased for the true treatment effect due to early censoring, leading to a biased estimate of conditional power and predictive power. In such cases, the estimates and inference for this right censored primary endpoint are enhanced by incorporating a fully observed auxiliary variable. We assume a bivariate normal distribution of the transformed primary variable and a correlated auxiliary variable. Simulation studies are conducted that not only shows enhanced conditional power and predictive power but also can provide the framework for a more efficient futility interim analysis in terms of an improved accuracy in estimator, a smaller inflation in type II error and an optimal timing for such analysis. We also illustrated the new approach by a real clinical trial example. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The predictive power of Japanese candlestick charting in Chinese stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shi; Bao, Si; Zhou, Yu

2016-09-01

This paper studies the predictive power of 4 popular pairs of two-day bullish and bearish Japanese candlestick patterns in Chinese stock market. Based on Morris' study, we give the quantitative details of definition of long candlestick, which is important in two-day candlestick pattern recognition but ignored by several previous researches, and we further give the quantitative definitions of these four pairs of two-day candlestick patterns. To test the predictive power of candlestick patterns on short-term price movement, we propose the definition of daily average return to alleviate the impact of correlation among stocks' overlap-time returns in statistical tests. To show the robustness of our result, two methods of trend definition are used for both the medium-market-value and large-market-value sample sets. We use Step-SPA test to correct for data snooping bias. Statistical results show that the predictive power differs from pattern to pattern, three of the eight patterns provide both short-term and relatively long-term prediction, another one pair only provide significant forecasting power within very short-term period, while the rest three patterns present contradictory results for different market value groups. For all the four pairs, the predictive power drops as predicting time increases, and forecasting power is stronger for stocks with medium market value than those with large market value.

The prediction of the impact of climatic factors on short-term electric power load based on the big data of smart city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Yunfei; Li, Xizhong; Zheng, Wei; Hu, Qinghe; Wei, Zhanmeng; Yue, Yaqin

2017-08-01

The climate changes have great impact on the residents’ electricity consumption, so the study on the impact of climatic factors on electric power load is of significance. In this paper, the effects of the data of temperature, rainfall and wind of smart city on short-term power load is studied to predict power load. The authors studied the relation between power load and daily temperature, rainfall and wind in the 31 days of January of one year. In the research, the authors used the Matlab neural network toolbox to establish the combinational forecasting model. The authors trained the original input data continuously to get the internal rules inside the data and used the rules to predict the daily power load in the next January. The prediction method relies on the accuracy of weather forecasting. If the weather forecasting is different from the actual weather, we need to correct the climatic factors to ensure accurate prediction.

Evaluating Upper-Body Strength and Power From a Single Test: The Ballistic Push-up.

PubMed

Wang, Ran; Hoffman, Jay R; Sadres, Eliahu; Bartolomei, Sandro; Muddle, Tyler W D; Fukuda, David H; Stout, Jeffrey R

2017-05-01

Wang, R, Hoffman, JR, Sadres, E, Bartolomei, S, Muddle, TWD, Fukuda, DH, and Stout, JR. Evaluating upper-body strength and power from a single test: the ballistic push-up. J Strength Cond Res 31(5): 1338-1345, 2017-The purpose of this study was to examine the reliability of the ballistic push-up (BPU) exercise and to develop a prediction model for both maximal strength (1 repetition maximum [1RM]) in the bench press exercise and upper-body power. Sixty recreationally active men completed a 1RM bench press and 2 BPU assessments in 3 separate testing sessions. Peak and mean force, peak and mean rate of force development, net impulse, peak velocity, flight time, and peak and mean power were determined. Intraclass correlation coefficients were used to examine the reliability of the BPU. Stepwise linear regression was used to develop 1RM bench press and power prediction equations. Intraclass correlation coefficient's ranged from 0.849 to 0.971 for the BPU measurements. Multiple regression analysis provided the following 1RM bench press prediction equation: 1RM = 0.31 × Mean Force - 1.64 × Body Mass + 0.70 (R = 0.837, standard error of the estimate [SEE] = 11 kg); time-based power prediction equation: Peak Power = 11.0 × Body Mass + 2012.3 × Flight Time - 338.0 (R = 0.658, SEE = 150 W), Mean Power = 6.7 × Body Mass + 1004.4 × Flight Time - 224.6 (R = 0.664, SEE = 82 W); and velocity-based power prediction equation: Peak Power = 8.1 × Body Mass + 818.6 × Peak Velocity - 762.0 (R = 0.797, SEE = 115 W); Mean Power = 5.2 × Body Mass + 435.9 × Peak Velocity - 467.7 (R = 0.838, SEE = 57 W). The BPU is a reliable test for both upper-body strength and power. Results indicate that the mean force generated from the BPU can be used to predict 1RM bench press, whereas peak velocity and flight time measured during the BPU can be used to predict upper-body power. These findings support the potential use of the BPU as a valid method to evaluate upper-body strength and power.

A 2.5 kW cascaded Schwarz converter for 20 kHz power distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shetler, Russell E.; Stuart, Thomas A.

1989-01-01

Because it avoids the high currents in a parallel loaded capacitor, the cascaded Schwarz converter should offer better component utilization than converters with sinusoidal output voltages. The circuit is relatively easy to protect, and it provides a predictable trapezoidal voltage waveform that should be satisfactory for 20-kHz distribution systems. Analysis of the system is enhanced by plotting curves of normalized variables vs. gamma(1), where gamma(1) is proportional to the variable frequency of the first stage. Light-load operation is greatly improved by the addition of a power recycling rectifier bridge that is back biased at medium to heavy loads. Operation has been verified on a 2.5-kW circuit that uses input and output voltages in the same range as those anticipated for certain future spacecraft power systems.

Local Fields in Human Subthalamic Nucleus Track the Lead-up to Impulsive Choices.

PubMed

Pearson, John M; Hickey, Patrick T; Lad, Shivanand P; Platt, Michael L; Turner, Dennis A

2017-01-01

The ability to adaptively minimize not only motor but cognitive symptoms of neurological diseases, such as Parkinson's Disease (PD) and obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), is a primary goal of next-generation deep brain stimulation (DBS) devices. On the basis of studies demonstrating a link between beta-band synchronization and severity of motor symptoms in PD, the minimization of beta band activity has been proposed as a potential training target for closed-loop DBS. At present, no comparable signal is known for the impulsive side effects of PD, though multiple studies have implicated theta band activity within the subthalamic nucleus (STN), the site of DBS treatment, in processes of conflict monitoring and countermanding. Here, we address this challenge by recording from multiple independent channels within the STN in a self-paced decision task to test whether these signals carry information sufficient to predict stopping behavior on a trial-by-trial basis. As in previous studies, we found that local field potentials (LFPs) exhibited modulations preceding self-initiated movements, with power ramping across multiple frequencies during the deliberation period. In addition, signals showed phasic changes in power around the time of decision. However, a prospective model that attempted to use these signals to predict decision times showed effects of risk level did not improve with the addition of LFPs as regressors. These findings suggest information tracking the lead-up to impulsive choices is distributed across multiple frequency scales in STN, though current techniques may not possess sufficient signal-to-noise ratios to predict-and thus curb-impulsive behavior on a moment-to-moment basis.

Why the Healing Gods Are Twins

PubMed Central

Hankoff, Leon D.

1977-01-01

The association of twins with health-giving powers is widespread in mythology, folklore, and religion. The Ashvins of the Rig-Veda, the classical Dioscuri, and the early Christian saints Cosmos and Damian are among the many examples of twins divinely empowered in the area of health and fertility. A characteristic set of attributes of twins recurs in different mythologies of wide distribution. In addition to healing, divine twins are often empowered with the ability to revive the dead, increase the fertility of man, animals, and crops, influence the weather, predict the future, and insure victory in battle. In some traditional societies these special attributes are thought to extend to all of the twins and their parents in the tribe. Ancient and primitive societies supposed that the birth of twins was associated with divine influence, the mother having been visited or otherwise affected by supernatural powers. A frequent explanation was that twins were the result of superfetation, a divine impregnation occurring along with that by the lawful husband. The specific powers of divine twins appear to be a reflection of the particular form of origin of twins through divine interference with the fertilization process. The twins thus share some of the powers of the divine parent, particularly those pertaining to fertility. Their dual paternity and its inherent competition is related to their martial interests as well as their ability to resolve ambivalent or ambiguous situations and predict outcomes. PMID:560764

Why the healing gods are twins.

PubMed

Hankoff, L D

1977-01-01

The association of twins with health-giving powers is widespread in mythology, folklore, and religion. The Ashvins of the Rig-Veda, the classical Dioscuri, and the early Christian saints Cosmos and Damian are among the many examples of twins divinely empowered in the area of health and fertility. A characteristic set of attributes of twins recurs in different mythologies of wide distribution. In addition to healing, divine twins are often empowered with the ability to revive the dead, increase the fertility of man, animals, and crops, influence the weather, predict the future, and insure victory in battle. In some traditional societies these special attributes are thought to extend to all of the twins and their parents in the tribe.Ancient and primitive societies supposed that the birth of twins was associated with divine influence, the mother having been visited or otherwise affected by supernatural powers. A frequent explanation was that twins were the result of superfetation, a divine impregnation occurring along with that by the lawful husband. The specific powers of divine twins appear to be a reflection of the particular form of origin of twins through divine interference with the fertilization process. The twins thus share some of the powers of the divine parent, particularly those pertaining to fertility. Their dual paternity and its inherent competition is related to their martial interests as well as their ability to resolve ambivalent or ambiguous situations and predict outcomes.

Wind Power predictability a risk factor in the design, construction and operation of Wind Generation Turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiesen, J.; Gulstad, L.; Ristic, I.; Maric, T.

2010-09-01

Summit: The wind power predictability is often a forgotten decision and planning factor for most major wind parks, both onshore and offshore. The results of the predictability are presented after having examined a number of European offshore and offshore parks power predictability by using three(3) mesoscale model IRIE_GFS and IRIE_EC and WRF. Full description: It is well known that the potential wind production is changing with latitude and complexity in terrain, but how big are the changes in the predictability and the economic impacts on a project? The concept of meteorological predictability has hitherto to some degree been neglected as a risk factor in the design, construction and operation of wind power plants. Wind power plants are generally built in places where the wind resources are high, but these are often also sites where the predictability of the wind and other weather parameters is comparatively low. This presentation addresses the question of whether higher predictability can outweigh lower average wind speeds with regard to the overall economy of a wind power project. Low predictability also tends to reduce the value of the energy produced. If it is difficult to forecast the wind on a site, it will also be difficult to predict the power production. This, in turn, leads to increased balance costs and a less reduced carbon emission from the renewable source. By investigating the output from three(3) mesoscale models IRIE and WRF, using ECMWF and GFS as boundary data over a forecasting period of 3 months for 25 offshore and onshore wind parks in Europe, the predictability are mapped. Three operational mesoscale models with two different boundary data have been chosen in order to eliminate the uncertainty with one mesoscale model. All mesoscale models are running in a 10 km horizontal resolution. The model output are converted into "day a head" wind turbine generation forecasts by using a well proven advanced physical wind power model. The power models are using a number of weather parameters like wind speed in different heights, friction velocity and DTHV. The 25 wind sites are scattered around in Europe and contains 4 offshore parks and 21 onshore parks in various terrain complexity. The "day a head" forecasts are compared with production data and predictability for the period February 2010-April 2010 are given in Mean Absolute Errors (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Errors (RMSE). The power predictability results are mapped for each turbine giving a clear picture of the predictability in Europe. . Finally a economic analysis are shown for each wind parks in different regimes of predictability will be compared with regard to the balance costs that result from errors in the wind power prediction. Analysis shows that it may very well be profitable to place wind parks in regions of lower, but more predictable wind ressource. Authors: Ivan Ristic, CTO Weather2Umberlla D.O.O Tomislav Maric, Meteorologist at Global Flow Solutions Vestas Wind Technology R&D Line Gulstad, Manager Global Flow Solutions Vestas Wind Technology R&D Jesper Thiesen, CEO ConWx ApS

Value of Combining Left Atrial Diameter and Amino-terminal Pro-brain Natriuretic Peptide to the CHA2DS2-VASc Score for Predicting Stroke and Death in Patients with Sick Sinus Syndrome after Pacemaker Implantation.

PubMed

Mo, Bin-Feng; Lu, Qiu-Fen; Lu, Shang-Biao; Xie, Yu-Quan; Feng, Xiang-Fei; Li, Yi-Gang

2017-08-20

The CHA2DS2-VASc score is used clinically for stroke risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We sought to investigate whether the CHA2DS2-VASc score predicts stroke and death in Chinese patients with sick sinus syndrome (SSS) after pacemaker implantation and to evaluate whether the predictive power of the CHA2DS2-VASc score could be improved by combining it with left atrial diameter (LAD) and amino-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). A total of 481 consecutive patients with SSS who underwent pacemaker implantation from January 2004 to December 2014 in our department were included. The CHA2DS2-VASc scores were retrospectively calculated according to the hospital medical records before pacemaker implantation. The outcome data (stroke and death) were collected by pacemaker follow-up visits and telephonic follow-up until December 31, 2015. During 2151 person-years of follow-up, 46 patients (9.6%) suffered stroke and 52 (10.8%) died. The CHA2DS2-VASc score showed a significant association with the development of stroke (hazard ratio [HR] 1.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20-1.75, P< 0.001) and death (HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.22-1.71, P< 0.001). The combination of increased LAD and the CHA2DS2-VASc score improved the predictive power for stroke (C-stat 0.69, 95% CI 0.61-0.77 vs. C-stat 0.66, 95% CI 0.57-0.74, P= 0.013), and the combination of increased NT-proBNP and the CHA2DS2-VASc score improved the predictive power for death (C-stat 0.70, 95% CI 0.64-0.77 vs. C-stat 0.67, 95% CI 0.60--0.75, P= 0.023). CHA2DS2-VASc score is valuable for predicting stroke and death risk in patients with SSS after pacemaker implantation. The addition of LAD and NT-proBNP to the CHA2DS2-VASc score improved its predictive power for stroke and death, respectively, in this patient cohort. Future prospective studies are warranted to validate the benefit of adding LAD and NT-proBNP to the CHA2DS2-VASc score for predicting stroke and death risk in non-AF populations.

Solar-based navigation for robotic explorers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shillcutt, Kimberly Jo

2000-12-01

This thesis introduces the application of solar position and shadowing information to robotic exploration. Power is a critical resource for robots with remote, long-term missions, so this research focuses on the power generation capabilities of robotic explorers during navigational tasks, in addition to power consumption. Solar power is primarily considered, with the possibility of wind power also contemplated. Information about the environment, including the solar ephemeris, terrain features, time of day, and surface location, is incorporated into a planning structure, allowing robots to accurately predict shadowing and thus potential costs and gains during navigational tasks. By evaluating its potential to generate and expend power, a robot can extend its lifetime and accomplishments. The primary tasks studied are coverage patterns, with a variety of plans developed for this research. The use of sun, terrain and temporal information also enables new capabilities of identifying and following sun-synchronous and sun-seeking paths. Digital elevation maps are combined with an ephemeris algorithm to calculate the altitude and azimuth of the sun from surface locations, and to identify and map shadows. Solar navigation path simulators use this information to perform searches through two-dimensional space, while considering temporal changes. Step by step simulations of coverage patterns also incorporate time in addition to location. Evaluations of solar and wind power generation, power consumption, area coverage, area overlap, and time are generated for sets of coverage patterns, with on-board environmental information linked to the simulations. This research is implemented on the Nomad robot for the Robotic Antarctic Meteorite Search. Simulators have been developed for coverage pattern tests, as well as for sun-synchronous and sun-seeking path searches. Results of field work and simulations are reported and analyzed, with demonstrated improvements in efficiency, productivity and lifetime of robotic explorers, along with new solar navigation abilities.

Utilization of Model Predictive Control to Balance Power Absorption Against Load Accumulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abbas, Nikhar; Tom, Nathan M

2017-06-03

Wave energy converter (WEC) control strategies have been primarily focused on maximizing power absorption. The use of model predictive control strategies allows for a finite-horizon, multiterm objective function to be solved. This work utilizes a multiterm objective function to maximize power absorption while minimizing the structural loads on the WEC system. Furthermore, a Kalman filter and autoregressive model were used to estimate and forecast the wave exciting force and predict the future dynamics of the WEC. The WEC's power-take-off time-averaged power and structural loads under a perfect forecast assumption in irregular waves were compared against results obtained from the Kalmanmore » filter and autoregressive model to evaluate model predictive control performance.« less

Utilization of Model Predictive Control to Balance Power Absorption Against Load Accumulation: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abbas, Nikhar; Tom, Nathan

Wave energy converter (WEC) control strategies have been primarily focused on maximizing power absorption. The use of model predictive control strategies allows for a finite-horizon, multiterm objective function to be solved. This work utilizes a multiterm objective function to maximize power absorption while minimizing the structural loads on the WEC system. Furthermore, a Kalman filter and autoregressive model were used to estimate and forecast the wave exciting force and predict the future dynamics of the WEC. The WEC's power-take-off time-averaged power and structural loads under a perfect forecast assumption in irregular waves were compared against results obtained from the Kalmanmore » filter and autoregressive model to evaluate model predictive control performance.« less

Space power systems technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coulman, George A.

1994-01-01

Reported here is a series of studies which examine several potential catalysts and electrodes for some fuel cell systems, some materials for space applications, and mathematical modeling and performance predictions for some solid oxide fuel cells and electrolyzers. The fuel cell systems have a potential for terrestrial applications in addition to solar energy conversion in space applications. Catalysts and electrodes for phosphoric acid fuel cell systems and for polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cell and electrolyzer systems were examined.

Risk Prediction for Epithelial Ovarian Cancer in 11 United States–Based Case-Control Studies: Incorporation of Epidemiologic Risk Factors and 17 Confirmed Genetic Loci

PubMed Central

Clyde, Merlise A.; Palmieri Weber, Rachel; Iversen, Edwin S.; Poole, Elizabeth M.; Doherty, Jennifer A.; Goodman, Marc T.; Ness, Roberta B.; Risch, Harvey A.; Rossing, Mary Anne; Terry, Kathryn L.; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Whittemore, Alice S.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Bandera, Elisa V.; Berchuck, Andrew; Carney, Michael E.; Cramer, Daniel W.; Cunningham, Julie M.; Cushing-Haugen, Kara L.; Edwards, Robert P.; Fridley, Brooke L.; Goode, Ellen L.; Lurie, Galina; McGuire, Valerie; Modugno, Francesmary; Moysich, Kirsten B.; Olson, Sara H.; Pearce, Celeste Leigh; Pike, Malcolm C.; Rothstein, Joseph H.; Sellers, Thomas A.; Sieh, Weiva; Stram, Daniel; Thompson, Pamela J.; Vierkant, Robert A.; Wicklund, Kristine G.; Wu, Anna H.; Ziogas, Argyrios; Tworoger, Shelley S.; Schildkraut, Joellen M.

2016-01-01

Previously developed models for predicting absolute risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer have included a limited number of risk factors and have had low discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) < 0.60). Because of this, we developed and internally validated a relative risk prediction model that incorporates 17 established epidemiologic risk factors and 17 genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) using data from 11 case-control studies in the United States (5,793 cases; 9,512 controls) from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (data accrued from 1992 to 2010). We developed a hierarchical logistic regression model for predicting case-control status that included imputation of missing data. We randomly divided the data into an 80% training sample and used the remaining 20% for model evaluation. The AUC for the full model was 0.664. A reduced model without SNPs performed similarly (AUC = 0.649). Both models performed better than a baseline model that included age and study site only (AUC = 0.563). The best predictive power was obtained in the full model among women younger than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.714); however, the addition of SNPs increased the AUC the most for women older than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.638 vs. 0.616). Adapting this improved model to estimate absolute risk and evaluating it in prospective data sets is warranted. PMID:27698005

[Radiation conditions and radiation risks for cosmonauts flying to Mars using electrical jet microthrusters].

PubMed

Shafirkin, A V; Kolomenskiĭ, A V

2008-01-01

According to recent workups, the Mars mission spacecraft will be designed with an electrical jet microthrusters rather than a power reactor facility. The article contains analysis of the main sources of radiation hazard during the exploration mission using this cost-efficient, ecological, easy-to-operate propulsion powered by solar arrays. In addition, the authors make predictions of the generalized doses of ionizing radiation for mission durations of 730 and 900 days behind various shielding thicknesses, and on the Martian surface. Calculation algorithms are described and radiation risks are estimated for the crew life span and possible life time reduction in consequence of participation in the mission.

Predication of different stages of Alzheimer's disease using neighborhood component analysis and ensemble decision tree.

PubMed

Jin, Mingwu; Deng, Weishu

2018-05-15

There is a spectrum of the progression from healthy control (HC) to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) without conversion to Alzheimer's disease (AD), to MCI with conversion to AD (cMCI), and to AD. This study aims to predict the different disease stages using brain structural information provided by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data. The neighborhood component analysis (NCA) is applied to select most powerful features for prediction. The ensemble decision tree classifier is built to predict which group the subject belongs to. The best features and model parameters are determined by cross validation of the training data. Our results show that 16 out of a total of 429 features were selected by NCA using 240 training subjects, including MMSE score and structural measures in memory-related regions. The boosting tree model with NCA features can achieve prediction accuracy of 56.25% on 160 test subjects. Principal component analysis (PCA) and sequential feature selection (SFS) are used for feature selection, while support vector machine (SVM) is used for classification. The boosting tree model with NCA features outperforms all other combinations of feature selection and classification methods. The results suggest that NCA be a better feature selection strategy than PCA and SFS for the data used in this study. Ensemble tree classifier with boosting is more powerful than SVM to predict the subject group. However, more advanced feature selection and classification methods or additional measures besides structural MRI may be needed to improve the prediction performance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.

Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highlymore » dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.« less

Experimental validation of boundary element methods for noise prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seybert, A. F.; Oswald, Fred B.

1992-01-01

Experimental validation of methods to predict radiated noise is presented. A combined finite element and boundary element model was used to predict the vibration and noise of a rectangular box excited by a mechanical shaker. The predicted noise was compared to sound power measured by the acoustic intensity method. Inaccuracies in the finite element model shifted the resonance frequencies by about 5 percent. The predicted and measured sound power levels agree within about 2.5 dB. In a second experiment, measured vibration data was used with a boundary element model to predict noise radiation from the top of an operating gearbox. The predicted and measured sound power for the gearbox agree within about 3 dB.

Predicting Rediated Noise With Power Flow Finite Element Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-02-01

Defence R&D Canada – Atlantic DEFENCE DÉFENSE & Predicting Rediated Noise With Power Flow Finite Element Analysis D. Brennan T.S. Koko L. Jiang J...PREDICTING RADIATED NOISE WITH POWER FLOW FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS D.P. Brennan T.S. Koko L. Jiang J.C. Wallace Martec Limited Martec Limited...model- or full-scale data before it is available for general use. Brennan, D.P., Koko , T.S., Jiang, L., Wallace, J.C. 2007. Predicting Radiated

Dynamic Modeling and Very Short-term Prediction of Wind Power Output Using Box-Cox Transformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urata, Kengo; Inoue, Masaki; Murayama, Dai; Adachi, Shuichi

2016-09-01

We propose a statistical modeling method of wind power output for very short-term prediction. The modeling method with a nonlinear model has cascade structure composed of two parts. One is a linear dynamic part that is driven by a Gaussian white noise and described by an autoregressive model. The other is a nonlinear static part that is driven by the output of the linear part. This nonlinear part is designed for output distribution matching: we shape the distribution of the model output to match with that of the wind power output. The constructed model is utilized for one-step ahead prediction of the wind power output. Furthermore, we study the relation between the prediction accuracy and the prediction horizon.

Mitigation of Hot-Spots in Photovoltaic Systems Using Distributed Power Electronics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olalla, Carlos; Hasan, Md. Nazmul; Deline, Chris

In the presence of partial shading and other mismatch factors, bypass diodes may not offer complete elimination of excessive power dissipation due to cell reverse biasing, commonly referred to as hot-spotting in photovoltaic (PV) systems. As a result, PV systems may experience higher failure rates and accelerated ageing. In this paper, a cell-level simulation model is used to assess occurrence of hot-spotting events in a representative residential rooftop system scenario featuring a moderate shading environment. The approach is further used to examine how well distributed power electronics converters mitigate the effects of partial shading and other sources of mismatch bymore » preventing activation of bypass diodes and thereby reducing the chances of heavy power dissipation and hot-spotting in mismatched cells. The simulation results confirm that the occurrence of heavy power dissipation is reduced in all distributed power electronics architectures, and that submodule-level converters offer nearly 100% mitigation of hot-spotting. In addition, the paper further elaborates on the possibility of hot-spot-induced permanent damage, predicting a lifetime energy loss above 15%. In conclusion, this energy loss is fully recoverable with submodule-level power converters that mitigate hot-spotting and prevent the damage.« less

Mitigation of Hot-Spots in Photovoltaic Systems Using Distributed Power Electronics

DOE PAGES

Olalla, Carlos; Hasan, Md. Nazmul; Deline, Chris; ...

2018-03-23

In the presence of partial shading and other mismatch factors, bypass diodes may not offer complete elimination of excessive power dissipation due to cell reverse biasing, commonly referred to as hot-spotting in photovoltaic (PV) systems. As a result, PV systems may experience higher failure rates and accelerated ageing. In this paper, a cell-level simulation model is used to assess occurrence of hot-spotting events in a representative residential rooftop system scenario featuring a moderate shading environment. The approach is further used to examine how well distributed power electronics converters mitigate the effects of partial shading and other sources of mismatch bymore » preventing activation of bypass diodes and thereby reducing the chances of heavy power dissipation and hot-spotting in mismatched cells. The simulation results confirm that the occurrence of heavy power dissipation is reduced in all distributed power electronics architectures, and that submodule-level converters offer nearly 100% mitigation of hot-spotting. In addition, the paper further elaborates on the possibility of hot-spot-induced permanent damage, predicting a lifetime energy loss above 15%. In conclusion, this energy loss is fully recoverable with submodule-level power converters that mitigate hot-spotting and prevent the damage.« less

Lunar power system summary of studies for the lunar enterprise task force NASA-office of exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Criswell, David R.

1989-01-01

The capacity of global power systems must be increased by a factor of ten to provide the predicted power needs of electric power by the year 2050. The Lunar Power System (LPS) would collect solar energy at power bases located on opposing limbs of the moon as seen from Earth. LPS can provide dependable, economic, renewable, and environmentally benign solar energy to Earth. A preliminary engineering and cash flow model of the LPS was developed. Results are shown for a system scaled to a peak capacity of 355 GWe on Earth and to provide 13,600 GWe-Yrs of energy over a 70 year life cycle of construction and full operation. The growth in capacity of the reference system from start of installation on the moon in 2005 to completion of its nominal life cycle in the year 2070 is shown. World needs for power could be accommodated by expansion in capacity of the reference LPS beyond 344 GWe. This would be done by steadily incorporating newer technology during full operation and by establishing additional bases. The results presented encourage consideration of a faster paced program than is assumed herein.

Social motives and cognitive power-sex associations: predictors of aggressive sexual behavior.

PubMed

Zurbriggen, E L

2000-03-01

The present study investigated whether implicit social motives and cognitive power-sex associations would predict self-reports of aggressive sexual behavior. Participants wrote stories in response to Thematic Apperception Test pictures, which were scored for power and affiliation-intimacy motives. They also completed a lexical-decision priming task that provided an index of the strength of the cognitive association between the concepts of "power" and "sexuality." For men, high levels of power motivation and strong power-sex associations predicted more frequent aggression. There was also an interaction: Power motivation was unrelated to aggression for men with the weakest power-sex associations. For women, high levels of affiliation-intimacy motivation were associated with more frequent aggression. Strong power-sex associations were also predictive for women but only when affiliation-intimacy motivation was high.

Predictions of Critical Heat Flux in Annular Pipes with TRACEv4.160 code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jasiulevicius, Audrius; Macian-Juan, Rafael

2006-07-01

This paper presents the assessment of TRACE (version v4.160) against the Critical Heat Flux (CHF) experiments in annular tubes performed at the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) in Stockholm, Sweden. The experimental database includes data for coolant mass fluxes between 250 and 2500 kg/m{sup 2}s and inlet subcooling of 10 and 40 K at a pressure of 70 bar. The work presented in this paper supplements the calculations of single round tube experiments carried out earlier and provides a broader scope of validated geometries. In addition to the Biasi and CISE-GE CHF correlations available in the code, a number ofmore » experimental points at low flow conditions are available for the annular geometry experiments, which also permitted the assessment of the Biasi/Zuber CHF correlation used in TRACE v4.160 for low flow conditions. Experiments with different axial power distribution were simulated and the effects of the axial power profile and the coolant inlet subcooling on the TRACE predictions were investigated. The results of this work show that the Biasi/Zuber correlation provides good estimation of the CHF at 70 bar, and, for the same conditions, the simulation of the annular experiments resulted in the calculation of lower CHF values compared to single-tube experiments. The analysis of the performance of the standard TRACE CHF correlations shows that the CISE-GE correlation yields critical qualities (quality at CHF) closer to the experimental values at 70 bar than the Biasi correlation for annular flow conditions. Regarding the power profile, the results of the TRACE calculations seem to be very sensitive to its shape, since, depending on the profile, different accuracies in the predictions were noted while other system conditions remained constant. The inlet coolant subcooling was also an important factor in the accuracy of TRACE CHF predictions. Thus, an increase in the inlet subcooling led to a clear improvement in the estimation of the critical quality with both Biasi and CISE-GE correlations. To complement the work, three additional CHF correlations were implemented in TRACE v4.160, namely the Bowring, Tong W-3 and Levitan-Lantsman CHF models, in order to assess the applicability of these correlations to simulate the CHF in annular tubes. The improvement of CHF predictions for low coolant mass flows (up to 1500 kg/m{sup 2}s) is noted when applying Bowring CHF correlation. However, the increase in the inlet subcooling increases the error in predicted critical quality with the Bowring correlation. The Levitan-Lantsman and Tong-W-3 correlations provide results similar to the Biasi model. Therefore, the most correct CHF predictions among the investigated correlations were obtained using CISE-GE model in the standard TRAC v4.160 code. (authors)« less

GPS-ARM: Computational Analysis of the APC/C Recognition Motif by Predicting D-Boxes and KEN-Boxes

PubMed Central

Ren, Jian; Cao, Jun; Zhou, Yanhong; Yang, Qing; Xue, Yu

2012-01-01

Anaphase-promoting complex/cyclosome (APC/C), an E3 ubiquitin ligase incorporated with Cdh1 and/or Cdc20 recognizes and interacts with specific substrates, and faithfully orchestrates the proper cell cycle events by targeting proteins for proteasomal degradation. Experimental identification of APC/C substrates is largely dependent on the discovery of APC/C recognition motifs, e.g., the D-box and KEN-box. Although a number of either stringent or loosely defined motifs proposed, these motif patterns are only of limited use due to their insufficient powers of prediction. We report the development of a novel GPS-ARM software package which is useful for the prediction of D-boxes and KEN-boxes in proteins. Using experimentally identified D-boxes and KEN-boxes as the training data sets, a previously developed GPS (Group-based Prediction System) algorithm was adopted. By extensive evaluation and comparison, the GPS-ARM performance was found to be much better than the one using simple motifs. With this powerful tool, we predicted 4,841 potential D-boxes in 3,832 proteins and 1,632 potential KEN-boxes in 1,403 proteins from H. sapiens, while further statistical analysis suggested that both the D-box and KEN-box proteins are involved in a broad spectrum of biological processes beyond the cell cycle. In addition, with the co-localization information, we predicted hundreds of mitosis-specific APC/C substrates with high confidence. As the first computational tool for the prediction of APC/C-mediated degradation, GPS-ARM is a useful tool for information to be used in further experimental investigations. The GPS-ARM is freely accessible for academic researchers at: http://arm.biocuckoo.org. PMID:22479614

Effect of trabeculectomy on the accuracy of intraocular lens calculations in patients with open-angle glaucoma.

PubMed

Bae, Hyoung Won; Lee, Yun Ha; Kim, Do Wook; Lee, Taekjune; Hong, Samin; Seong, Gong Je; Kim, Chan Yun

2016-08-01

The objective of the study is to examine the effect of trabeculectomy on intraocular lens power calculations in patients with open-angle glaucoma (OAG) undergoing cataract surgery. The design is retrospective data analysis. There are a total of 55 eyes of 55 patients with OAG who had a cataract surgery alone or in combination with trabeculectomy. We classified OAG subjects into the following groups based on surgical history: only cataract surgery (OC group), cataract surgery after prior trabeculectomy (CAT group), and cataract surgery performed in combination with trabeculectomy (CCT group). Differences between actual and predicted postoperative refractive error. Mean error (ME, difference between postoperative and predicted SE) in the CCT group was significantly lower (towards myopia) than that of the OC group (P = 0.008). Additionally, mean absolute error (MAE, absolute value of ME) in the CAT group was significantly greater than in the OC group (P = 0.006). Using linear mixed models, the ME calculated with the SRK II formula was more accurate than the ME predicted by the SRK T formula in the CAT (P = 0.032) and CCT (P = 0.035) groups. The intraocular lens power prediction accuracy was lower in the CAT and CCT groups than in the OC group. The prediction error was greater in the CAT group than in the OC group, and the direction of the prediction error tended to be towards myopia in the CCT group. The SRK II formula may be more accurate in predicting residual refractive error in the CAT and CCT groups. © 2016 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

Experimental evaluation of the power balance model of speed skating.

PubMed

de Koning, Jos J; Foster, Carl; Lampen, Joanne; Hettinga, Floor; Bobbert, Maarten F

2005-01-01

Prediction of speed skating performance with a power balance model requires assumptions about the kinetics of energy production, skating efficiency, and skating technique. The purpose of this study was to evaluate these parameters during competitive imitations for the purpose of improving model predictions. Elite speed skaters (n = 8) performed races and submaximal efficiency tests. External power output (P(o)) was calculated from movement analysis and aerodynamic models and ice friction measurements. Aerobic kinetics was calculated from breath-by-breath oxygen uptake (Vo(2)). Aerobic power (P(aer)) was calculated from measured skating efficiency. Anaerobic power (P(an)) kinetics was determined by subtracting P(aer) from P(o). We found gross skating efficiency to be 15.8% (1.8%). In the 1,500-m event, the kinetics of P(an) was characterized by a first-order system as P(an) = 88 + 556e(-0.0494t) (in W, where t is time). The rate constant for the increase in P(aer) was -0.153 s(-1), the time delay was 8.7 s, and the peak P(aer) was 234 W; P(aer) was equal to 234[1 - e(-0.153(t-8.7))] (in W). Skating position changed with preextension knee angle increasing and trunk angle decreasing throughout the event. We concluded the pattern of P(aer) to be quite similar to that reported during other competitive imitations, with the exception that the increase in P(aer) was more rapid. The pattern of P(an) does not appear to fit an "all-out" pattern, with near zero values during the last portion of the event, as assumed in our previous model (De Koning JJ, de Groot G, and van Ingen Schenau GJ. J Biomech 25: 573-580, 1992). Skating position changed in ways different from those assumed in our previous model. In addition to allowing improved predictions, the results demonstrate the importance of observations in unique subjects to the process of model construction.

Slim Battery Modelling Features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borthomieu, Y.; Prevot, D.

2011-10-01

Saft has developed a life prediction model for VES and MPS cells and batteries. The Saft Li-ion Model (SLIM) is a macroscopic electrochemical model based on energy (global at cell level). The main purpose is to predict the battery performances during the life for GEO, MEO and LEO missions. This model is based on electrochemical characteristics such as Energy, Capacity, EMF, Internal resistance, end of charge voltage. It uses fading and calendar law effects on energy and internal impedance vs. time, temperature, End of Charge voltage. Based on the mission profile, satellite power system characteristics, the model proposes the various battery configurations. For each configuration, the model gives the battery performances using mission figures and profiles: power, duration, DOD, end of charge voltages, temperatures during eclipses and solstices, thermal dissipations and cell failures. For the GEO/MEO missions, eclipse and solstice periods can include specific profile such as plasmic propulsion fires and specific balancing operations. For LEO missions, the model is able to simulate high power peaks to predict radar pulses. Saft's main customers have been using the SLIM model available in house for two years. The purpose is to have the satellite builder power engineers able to perform by themselves in the battery pre-dimensioning activities their own battery simulations. The simulations can be shared with Saft engineers to refine the power system designs. This model has been correlated with existing life and calendar tests performed on all the VES and MPS cells. In comparing with more than 10 year lasting life tests, the accuracy of the model from a voltage point of view is less than 10 mV at end Of Life. In addition, thethe comparison with in-orbit data has been also done. b This paper will present the main features of the SLIM software and outputs comparison with real life tests. b0

Development of Multi-physics (Multiphase CFD + MCNP) simulation for generic solution vessel power calculation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Seung Jun; Buechler, Cynthia Eileen

The current study aims to predict the steady state power of a generic solution vessel and to develop a corresponding heat transfer coefficient correlation for a Moly99 production facility by conducting a fully coupled multi-physics simulation. A prediction of steady state power for the current application is inherently interconnected between thermal hydraulic characteristics (i.e. Multiphase computational fluid dynamics solved by ANSYS-Fluent 17.2) and the corresponding neutronic behavior (i.e. particle transport solved by MCNP6.2) in the solution vessel. Thus, the development of a coupling methodology is vital to understand the system behavior at a variety of system design and postulated operatingmore » scenarios. In this study, we report on the k-effective (keff) calculation for the baseline solution vessel configuration with a selected solution concentration using MCNP K-code modeling. The associated correlation of thermal properties (e.g. density, viscosity, thermal conductivity, specific heat) at the selected solution concentration are developed based on existing experimental measurements in the open literature. The numerical coupling methodology between multiphase CFD and MCNP is successfully demonstrated, and the detailed coupling procedure is documented. In addition, improved coupling methods capturing realistic physics in the solution vessel thermal-neutronic dynamics are proposed and tested further (i.e. dynamic height adjustment, mull-cell approach). As a key outcome of the current study, a multi-physics coupling methodology between MCFD and MCNP is demonstrated and tested for four different operating conditions. Those different operating conditions are determined based on the neutron source strength at a fixed geometry condition. The steady state powers for the generic solution vessel at various operating conditions are reported, and a generalized correlation of the heat transfer coefficient for the current application is discussed. The assessment of multi-physics methodology and preliminary results from various coupled calculations (power prediction and heat transfer coefficient) can be further utilized for the system code validation and generic solution vessel design improvement.« less

Nonstandard Lumbar Region in Predicting Fracture Risk.

PubMed

Alajlouni, Dima; Bliuc, Dana; Tran, Thach; Pocock, Nicholas; Nguyen, Tuan V; Eisman, John A; Center, Jacqueline R

Femoral neck (FN) bone mineral density (BMD) is the most commonly used skeletal site to estimate fracture risk. The role of lumbar spine (LS) BMD in fracture risk prediction is less clear due to osteophytes that spuriously increase LS BMD, particularly at lower levels. The aim of this study was to compare fracture predictive ability of upper L1-L2 BMD with standard L2-L4 BMD and assess whether the addition of either LS site could improve fracture prediction over FN BMD. This study comprised a prospective cohort of 3016 women and men over 60 yr from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study followed up for occurrence of minimal trauma fractures from 1989 to 2014. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry was used to measure BMD at L1-L2, L2-L4, and FN at baseline. Fracture risks were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models separately for each site. Predictive performances were compared using receiver operating characteristic curve analyses. There were 565 women and 179 men with a minimal trauma fracture during a mean of 11 ± 7 yr. L1-L2 BMD T-score was significantly lower than L2-L4 T-score in both genders (p < 0.0001). L1-L2 and L2-L4 BMD models had a similar fracture predictive ability. LS BMD was better than FN BMD in predicting vertebral fracture risk in women [area under the curve 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.68-0.79) vs 0.68 (95% confidence interval, 0.62-0.74), but FN was superior for hip fractures prediction in both women and men. The addition of L1-L2 or L2-L4 to FN BMD in women increased overall and vertebral predictive power compared with FN BMD alone by 1% and 4%, respectively (p < 0.05). In an elderly population, L1-L2 is as good as but not better than L2-L4 site in predicting fracture risk. The addition of LS BMD to FN BMD provided a modest additional benefit in overall fracture risk. Further studies in individuals with spinal degenerative disease are needed. Copyright © 2017 The International Society for Clinical Densitometry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting Mouse Liver Microsomal Stability with “Pruned” Machine Learning Models and Public Data

PubMed Central

Perryman, Alexander L.; Stratton, Thomas P.; Ekins, Sean; Freundlich, Joel S.

2015-01-01

Purpose Mouse efficacy studies are a critical hurdle to advance translational research of potential therapeutic compounds for many diseases. Although mouse liver microsomal (MLM) stability studies are not a perfect surrogate for in vivo studies of metabolic clearance, they are the initial model system used to assess metabolic stability. Consequently, we explored the development of machine learning models that can enhance the probability of identifying compounds possessing MLM stability. Methods Published assays on MLM half-life values were identified in PubChem, reformatted, and curated to create a training set with 894 unique small molecules. These data were used to construct machine learning models assessed with internal cross-validation, external tests with a published set of antitubercular compounds, and independent validation with an additional diverse set of 571 compounds (PubChem data on percent metabolism). Results “Pruning” out the moderately unstable/moderately stable compounds from the training set produced models with superior predictive power. Bayesian models displayed the best predictive power for identifying compounds with a half-life ≥1 hour. Conclusions Our results suggest the pruning strategy may be of general benefit to improve test set enrichment and provide machine learning models with enhanced predictive value for the MLM stability of small organic molecules. This study represents the most exhaustive study to date of using machine learning approaches with MLM data from public sources. PMID:26415647

Predicting Mouse Liver Microsomal Stability with "Pruned" Machine Learning Models and Public Data.

PubMed

Perryman, Alexander L; Stratton, Thomas P; Ekins, Sean; Freundlich, Joel S

2016-02-01

Mouse efficacy studies are a critical hurdle to advance translational research of potential therapeutic compounds for many diseases. Although mouse liver microsomal (MLM) stability studies are not a perfect surrogate for in vivo studies of metabolic clearance, they are the initial model system used to assess metabolic stability. Consequently, we explored the development of machine learning models that can enhance the probability of identifying compounds possessing MLM stability. Published assays on MLM half-life values were identified in PubChem, reformatted, and curated to create a training set with 894 unique small molecules. These data were used to construct machine learning models assessed with internal cross-validation, external tests with a published set of antitubercular compounds, and independent validation with an additional diverse set of 571 compounds (PubChem data on percent metabolism). "Pruning" out the moderately unstable / moderately stable compounds from the training set produced models with superior predictive power. Bayesian models displayed the best predictive power for identifying compounds with a half-life ≥1 h. Our results suggest the pruning strategy may be of general benefit to improve test set enrichment and provide machine learning models with enhanced predictive value for the MLM stability of small organic molecules. This study represents the most exhaustive study to date of using machine learning approaches with MLM data from public sources.

Mercury capture within coal-fired power plant electrostatic precipitators: model evaluation.

PubMed

Clack, Herek L

2009-03-01

Efforts to reduce anthropogenic mercury emissions worldwide have recently focused on a variety of sources, including mercury emitted during coal combustion. Toward that end, much research has been ongoing seeking to develop new processes for reducing coal combustion mercury emissions. Among air pollution control processes that can be applied to coal-fired boilers, electrostatic precipitators (ESPs) are by far the most common, both on a global scale and among the principal countries of India, China, and the U.S. that burn coal for electric power generation. A previously reported theoretical model of in-flight mercury capture within ESPs is herein evaluated against data from a number of full-scale tests of activated carbon injection for mercury emissions control. By using the established particle size distribution of the activated carbon and actual or estimated values of its equilibrium mercury adsorption capacity, the incremental reduction in mercury concentration across each ESP can be predicted and compared to experimental results. Because the model does not incorporate kinetics associated with gas-phase mercury transformation or surface adsorption, the model predictions representthe mass-transfer-limited performance. Comparing field data to model results reveals many facilities performing at or near the predicted mass-transfer-limited maximum, particularly at low rates of sorbent injection. Where agreement is poor between field data and model predictions, additional chemical or physical phenomena may be responsible for reducing mercury removal efficiencies.

The Role of Minority Stressors in Lesbian Relationship Commitment and Persistence over Time.

PubMed

Barrantes, Renzo J; Eaton, Asia A; Veldhuis, Cindy B; Hughes, Tonda L

2017-06-01

The Investment Model of relationship commitment uses interpersonal investment, relationship satisfaction, quality of alternatives, and commitment to predict relationship longevity (Rusbult, 1980, 1983). Although ample support for the Investment Model has been found in heterosexual couples, it appears to be less powerful in predicting stability in same-sex relationships (Beals, Impett, & Peplau, 2002), potentially because the model does not account for factors unique to same-sex relationships, such as anti-gay discrimination. However, no research has tested the nature and power of sexual minority stress factors in predicting same-sex relationship stability over time. Using secondary, longitudinal data collected from a diverse sample of lesbian women in relationships ( N = 211), we examined how internalized homonegativity, sexual identity disclosure, and workplace discrimination affected the Investment Model antecedents of relationship persistence: satisfaction, quality of alternatives, and investment. We tested the influence of sexual minority stressors on Investment Model processes using structural equations modeling and found that sexual identity disclosure was positively associated with satisfaction and investment, internalized homonegativity was only negatively associated with satisfaction and investment, while workplace discrimination was negatively associated with alternatives. Moreover, both relationship satisfaction and investment influenced commitment which predicted persistence in these relationships over about seven years' time, demonstrating support for the Investment Model. Our findings support the addition of sexual minority stress variables to the Investment Model when examining same-sex relationships and implications are discussed.

Rational selection of training and test sets for the development of validated QSAR models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golbraikh, Alexander; Shen, Min; Xiao, Zhiyan; Xiao, Yun-De; Lee, Kuo-Hsiung; Tropsha, Alexander

2003-02-01

Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) models are used increasingly to screen chemical databases and/or virtual chemical libraries for potentially bioactive molecules. These developments emphasize the importance of rigorous model validation to ensure that the models have acceptable predictive power. Using k nearest neighbors ( kNN) variable selection QSAR method for the analysis of several datasets, we have demonstrated recently that the widely accepted leave-one-out (LOO) cross-validated R2 (q2) is an inadequate characteristic to assess the predictive ability of the models [Golbraikh, A., Tropsha, A. Beware of q2! J. Mol. Graphics Mod. 20, 269-276, (2002)]. Herein, we provide additional evidence that there exists no correlation between the values of q 2 for the training set and accuracy of prediction ( R 2) for the test set and argue that this observation is a general property of any QSAR model developed with LOO cross-validation. We suggest that external validation using rationally selected training and test sets provides a means to establish a reliable QSAR model. We propose several approaches to the division of experimental datasets into training and test sets and apply them in QSAR studies of 48 functionalized amino acid anticonvulsants and a series of 157 epipodophyllotoxin derivatives with antitumor activity. We formulate a set of general criteria for the evaluation of predictive power of QSAR models.

Spatial-temporal forecasting the sunspot diagram

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Covas, Eurico

2017-09-01

Aims: We attempt to forecast the Sun's sunspot butterfly diagram in both space (I.e. in latitude) and time, instead of the usual one-dimensional time series forecasts prevalent in the scientific literature. Methods: We use a prediction method based on the non-linear embedding of data series in high dimensions. We use this method to forecast both in latitude (space) and in time, using a full spatial-temporal series of the sunspot diagram from 1874 to 2015. Results: The analysis of the results shows that it is indeed possible to reconstruct the overall shape and amplitude of the spatial-temporal pattern of sunspots, but that the method in its current form does not have real predictive power. We also apply a metric called structural similarity to compare the forecasted and the observed butterfly cycles, showing that this metric can be a useful addition to the usual root mean square error metric when analysing the efficiency of different prediction methods. Conclusions: We conclude that it is in principle possible to reconstruct the full sunspot butterfly diagram for at least one cycle using this approach and that this method and others should be explored since just looking at metrics such as sunspot count number or sunspot total area coverage is too reductive given the spatial-temporal dynamical complexity of the sunspot butterfly diagram. However, more data and/or an improved approach is probably necessary to have true predictive power.

The Role of Minority Stressors in Lesbian Relationship Commitment and Persistence over Time

PubMed Central

Barrantes, Renzo J.; Eaton, Asia A.; Veldhuis, Cindy B.; Hughes, Tonda L.

2017-01-01

The Investment Model of relationship commitment uses interpersonal investment, relationship satisfaction, quality of alternatives, and commitment to predict relationship longevity (Rusbult, 1980, 1983). Although ample support for the Investment Model has been found in heterosexual couples, it appears to be less powerful in predicting stability in same-sex relationships (Beals, Impett, & Peplau, 2002), potentially because the model does not account for factors unique to same-sex relationships, such as anti-gay discrimination. However, no research has tested the nature and power of sexual minority stress factors in predicting same-sex relationship stability over time. Using secondary, longitudinal data collected from a diverse sample of lesbian women in relationships (N = 211), we examined how internalized homonegativity, sexual identity disclosure, and workplace discrimination affected the Investment Model antecedents of relationship persistence: satisfaction, quality of alternatives, and investment. We tested the influence of sexual minority stressors on Investment Model processes using structural equations modeling and found that sexual identity disclosure was positively associated with satisfaction and investment, internalized homonegativity was only negatively associated with satisfaction and investment, while workplace discrimination was negatively associated with alternatives. Moreover, both relationship satisfaction and investment influenced commitment which predicted persistence in these relationships over about seven years’ time, demonstrating support for the Investment Model. Our findings support the addition of sexual minority stress variables to the Investment Model when examining same-sex relationships and implications are discussed. PMID:28695154

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Newman, Jennifer F.; Clifton, Andrew

Currently, cup anemometers on meteorological towers are used to measure wind speeds and turbulence intensity to make decisions about wind turbine class and site suitability; however, as modern turbine hub heights increase and wind energy expands to complex and remote sites, it becomes more difficult and costly to install meteorological towers at potential sites. As a result, remote-sensing devices (e.g., lidars) are now commonly used by wind farm managers and researchers to estimate the flow field at heights spanned by a turbine. Although lidars can accurately estimate mean wind speeds and wind directions, there is still a large amount ofmore » uncertainty surrounding the measurement of turbulence using these devices. Errors in lidar turbulence estimates are caused by a variety of factors, including instrument noise, volume averaging, and variance contamination, in which the magnitude of these factors is highly dependent on measurement height and atmospheric stability. As turbulence has a large impact on wind power production, errors in turbulence measurements will translate into errors in wind power prediction. The impact of using lidars rather than cup anemometers for wind power prediction must be understood if lidars are to be considered a viable alternative to cup anemometers.In this poster, the sensitivity of power prediction error to typical lidar turbulence measurement errors is assessed. Turbulence estimates from a vertically profiling WINDCUBE v2 lidar are compared to high-resolution sonic anemometer measurements at field sites in Oklahoma and Colorado to determine the degree of lidar turbulence error that can be expected under different atmospheric conditions. These errors are then incorporated into a power prediction model to estimate the sensitivity of power prediction error to turbulence measurement error. Power prediction models, including the standard binning method and a random forest method, were developed using data from the aeroelastic simulator FAST for a 1.5 MW turbine. The impact of lidar turbulence error on the predicted power from these different models is examined to determine the degree of turbulence measurement accuracy needed for accurate power prediction.« less

POWER Web Access Data

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-05-27

Description:  Obtain Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) data The Prediction of Worldwide Energy ... (POWER) project was initiated to improve upon the current renewable energy data set and to create new data sets from new satellite ...

Global proteomics profiling improves drug sensitivity prediction: results from a multi-omics, pan-cancer modeling approach.

PubMed

Ali, Mehreen; Khan, Suleiman A; Wennerberg, Krister; Aittokallio, Tero

2018-04-15

Proteomics profiling is increasingly being used for molecular stratification of cancer patients and cell-line panels. However, systematic assessment of the predictive power of large-scale proteomic technologies across various drug classes and cancer types is currently lacking. To that end, we carried out the first pan-cancer, multi-omics comparative analysis of the relative performance of two proteomic technologies, targeted reverse phase protein array (RPPA) and global mass spectrometry (MS), in terms of their accuracy for predicting the sensitivity of cancer cells to both cytotoxic chemotherapeutics and molecularly targeted anticancer compounds. Our results in two cell-line panels demonstrate how MS profiling improves drug response predictions beyond that of the RPPA or the other omics profiles when used alone. However, frequent missing MS data values complicate its use in predictive modeling and required additional filtering, such as focusing on completely measured or known oncoproteins, to obtain maximal predictive performance. Rather strikingly, the two proteomics profiles provided complementary predictive signal both for the cytotoxic and targeted compounds. Further, information about the cellular-abundance of primary target proteins was found critical for predicting the response of targeted compounds, although the non-target features also contributed significantly to the predictive power. The clinical relevance of the selected protein markers was confirmed in cancer patient data. These results provide novel insights into the relative performance and optimal use of the widely applied proteomic technologies, MS and RPPA, which should prove useful in translational applications, such as defining the best combination of omics technologies and marker panels for understanding and predicting drug sensitivities in cancer patients. Processed datasets, R as well as Matlab implementations of the methods are available at https://github.com/mehr-een/bemkl-rbps. mehreen.ali@helsinki.fi or tero.aittokallio@fimm.fi. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

DNA methylation-based measures of biological age: meta-analysis predicting time to death

PubMed Central

Chen, Brian H.; Marioni, Riccardo E.; Colicino, Elena; Peters, Marjolein J.; Ward-Caviness, Cavin K.; Tsai, Pei-Chien; Roetker, Nicholas S.; Just, Allan C.; Demerath, Ellen W.; Guan, Weihua; Bressler, Jan; Fornage, Myriam; Studenski, Stephanie; Vandiver, Amy R.; Moore, Ann Zenobia; Tanaka, Toshiko; Kiel, Douglas P.; Liang, Liming; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel; Lunetta, Kathryn L.; Murabito, Joanne M.; Bandinelli, Stefania; Hernandez, Dena G.; Melzer, David; Nalls, Michael; Pilling, Luke C.; Price, Timothy R.; Singleton, Andrew B.; Gieger, Christian; Holle, Rolf; Kretschmer, Anja; Kronenberg, Florian; Kunze, Sonja; Linseisen, Jakob; Meisinger, Christine; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Waldenberger, Melanie; Visscher, Peter M.; Shah, Sonia; Wray, Naomi R.; McRae, Allan F.; Franco, Oscar H.; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G.; Absher, Devin; Assimes, Themistocles; Levine, Morgan E.; Lu, Ake T.; Tsao, Philip S.; Hou, Lifang; Manson, JoAnn E.; Carty, Cara L.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; Reiner, Alexander P.; Spector, Tim D.; Feinberg, Andrew P.; Levy, Daniel; Baccarelli, Andrea; van Meurs, Joyce; Bell, Jordana T.; Peters, Annette; Deary, Ian J.; Pankow, James S.; Ferrucci, Luigi; Horvath, Steve

2016-01-01

Estimates of biological age based on DNA methylation patterns, often referred to as “epigenetic age”, “DNAm age”, have been shown to be robust biomarkers of age in humans. We previously demonstrated that independent of chronological age, epigenetic age assessed in blood predicted all-cause mortality in four human cohorts. Here, we expanded our original observation to 13 different cohorts for a total sample size of 13,089 individuals, including three racial/ethnic groups. In addition, we examined whether incorporating information on blood cell composition into the epigenetic age metrics improves their predictive power for mortality. All considered measures of epigenetic age acceleration were predictive of mortality (p≤8.2×10−9), independent of chronological age, even after adjusting for additional risk factors (p<5.4×10−4), and within the racial/ethnic groups that we examined (non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics, African Americans). Epigenetic age estimates that incorporated information on blood cell composition led to the smallest p-values for time to death (p=7.5×10−43). Overall, this study a) strengthens the evidence that epigenetic age predicts all-cause mortality above and beyond chronological age and traditional risk factors, and b) demonstrates that epigenetic age estimates that incorporate information on blood cell counts lead to highly significant associations with all-cause mortality. PMID:27690265

Use of Preoperative Functional MRI to Predict Verbal Memory Decline After Temporal Lobe Epilepsy Surgery

PubMed Central

Binder, Jeffrey R.; Sabsevitz, David S.; Swanson, Sara J.; Hammeke, Thomas A.; Raghavan, Manoj; Mueller, Wade M.

2010-01-01

Purpose Verbal memory decline is a frequent complication of left anterior temporal lobectomy (L-ATL). The goal of this study was to determine whether preoperative language mapping using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is useful for predicting which patients are likely to experience verbal memory decline after L-ATL. Methods Sixty L-ATL patients underwent preoperative language mapping with fMRI, preoperative intracarotid amobarbital (Wada) testing for language and memory lateralization, and pre- and postoperative neuropsychological testing. Demographic, historical, neuropsychological, and imaging variables were examined for their ability to predict pre- to postoperative memory change. Results Verbal memory decline occurred in over 30% of patients. Good preoperative performance, late age at onset of epilepsy, left dominance on fMRI, and left dominance on the Wada test were each predictive of memory decline. Preoperative performance and age at onset together accounted for roughly 50% of the variance in memory outcome (p < .001), and fMRI explained an additional 10% of this variance (p ≤ .003). Neither Wada memory asymmetry nor Wada language asymmetry added additional predictive power beyond these noninvasive measures. Discussion Preoperative fMRI is useful for identifying patients at high risk for verbal memory decline prior to L-ATL surgery. Lateralization of language is correlated with lateralization of verbal memory, whereas Wada memory testing is either insufficiently reliable or insufficiently material-specific to accurately localize verbal memory processes. PMID:18435753

Quantum ring-polymer contraction method: Including nuclear quantum effects at no additional computational cost in comparison to ab initio molecular dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

John, Christopher; Spura, Thomas; Habershon, Scott; Kühne, Thomas D.

2016-04-01

We present a simple and accurate computational method which facilitates ab initio path-integral molecular dynamics simulations, where the quantum-mechanical nature of the nuclei is explicitly taken into account, at essentially no additional computational cost in comparison to the corresponding calculation using classical nuclei. The predictive power of the proposed quantum ring-polymer contraction method is demonstrated by computing various static and dynamic properties of liquid water at ambient conditions using density functional theory. This development will enable routine inclusion of nuclear quantum effects in ab initio molecular dynamics simulations of condensed-phase systems.

High power narrow-band fiber-based ASE source.

PubMed

Schmidt, O; Rekas, M; Wirth, C; Rothhardt, J; Rhein, S; Kliner, A; Strecker, M; Schreiber, T; Limpert, J; Eberhardt, R; Tünnermann, A

2011-02-28

In this paper we describe a high power narrow-band amplified spontaneous emission (ASE) light source at 1030 nm center wavelength generated in an Yb-doped fiber-based experimental setup. By cutting a small region out of a broadband ASE spectrum using two fiber Bragg gratings a strongly constrained bandwidth of 12±2 pm (3.5±0.6 GHz) is formed. A two-stage high power fiber amplifier system is used to boost the output power up to 697 W with a measured beam quality of M2≤1.34. In an additional experiment we demonstrate a stimulated Brillouin scattering (SBS) suppression of at least 17 dB (theoretically predicted ~20 dB), which is only limited by the dynamic range of the measurement and not by the onset of SBS when using the described light source. The presented narrow-band ASE source could be of great interest for brightness scaling applications by beam combination, where SBS is known as a limiting factor.

A Reduced Model for Prediction of Thermal and Rotational Effects on Turbine Tip Clearance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kypuros, Javier A.; Melcher, Kevin J.

2003-01-01

This paper describes a dynamic model that was developed to predict changes in turbine tip clearance the radial distance between the end of a turbine blade and the abradable tip seal. The clearance is estimated by using a first principles approach to model the thermal and mechanical effects of engine operating conditions on the turbine sub-components. These effects are summed to determine the resulting clearance. The model is demonstrated via a ground idle to maximum power transient and a lapse-rate takeoff transient. Results show the model demonstrates the expected pinch point behavior. The paper concludes by identifying knowledge gaps and suggesting additional research to improve the model.

Prediction of brain tissue temperature using near-infrared spectroscopy.

PubMed

Holper, Lisa; Mitra, Subhabrata; Bale, Gemma; Robertson, Nicola; Tachtsidis, Ilias

2017-04-01

Broadband near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) can provide an endogenous indicator of tissue temperature based on the temperature dependence of the water absorption spectrum. We describe a first evaluation of the calibration and prediction of brain tissue temperature obtained during hypothermia in newborn piglets (animal dataset) and rewarming in newborn infants (human dataset) based on measured body (rectal) temperature. The calibration using partial least squares regression proved to be a reliable method to predict brain tissue temperature with respect to core body temperature in the wavelength interval of 720 to 880 nm with a strong mean predictive power of [Formula: see text] (animal dataset) and [Formula: see text] (human dataset). In addition, we applied regression receiver operating characteristic curves for the first time to evaluate the temperature prediction, which provided an overall mean error bias between NIRS predicted brain temperature and body temperature of [Formula: see text] (animal dataset) and [Formula: see text] (human dataset). We discuss main methodological aspects, particularly the well-known aspect of over- versus underestimation between brain and body temperature, which is relevant for potential clinical applications.

Comparison of spring measures of length, weight, and condition factor for predicting metamorphosis in two populations of sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) larvae

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henson, Mary P.; Bergstedt, Roger A.; Adams, Jean V.

2003-01-01

The ability to predict when sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) will metamorphose from the larval phase to the parasitic phase is essential to the operation of the sea lamprey control program. During the spring of 1994, two populations of sea lamprey larvae from two rivers were captured, measured, weighed, implanted with coded wire tags, and returned to the same sites in the streams from which they were taken. Sea lampreys were recovered in the fall, after metamorphosis would have occurred, and checked for the presence of a tag. When the spring data were compared to the fall data it was found that the minimum requirements (length ≥ 120 mm, weight ≥ 3 g, and condition factor ≥ 1.50) suggested for metamorphosis did define a pool of larvae capable of metamorphosing. However, logistic regressions that relate the probability of metamorphosis to size are necessary to predict metamorphosis in a population. The data indicated, based on cross-validation, that weight measurements alone predicted metamorphosis with greater precision than length or condition factor in both the Marengo and Amnicon rivers. Based on the Akaike Information Criterion, weight alone was a better predictor in the Amnicon River, but length and condition factor combined predicted metamorphosis better in the Marengo River. There would be no additional cost if weight alone were used instead of length. However, if length and weight were measured the gain in predictive power would not be enough to justify the additional cost.

Predicting the stochastic guiding of kinesin-driven microtubules in microfabricated tracks: a statistical-mechanics-based modeling approach.

PubMed

Lin, Chih-Tin; Meyhofer, Edgar; Kurabayashi, Katsuo

2010-01-01

Directional control of microtubule shuttles via microfabricated tracks is key to the development of controlled nanoscale mass transport by kinesin motor molecules. Here we develop and test a model to quantitatively predict the stochastic behavior of microtubule guiding when they mechanically collide with the sidewalls of lithographically patterned tracks. By taking into account appropriate probability distributions of microscopic states of the microtubule system, the model allows us to theoretically analyze the roles of collision conditions and kinesin surface densities in determining how the motion of microtubule shuttles is controlled. In addition, we experimentally observe the statistics of microtubule collision events and compare our theoretical prediction with experimental data to validate our model. The model will direct the design of future hybrid nanotechnology devices that integrate nanoscale transport systems powered by kinesin-driven molecular shuttles.

High power diode laser Master Oscillator-Power Amplifier (MOPA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andrews, John R.; Mouroulis, P.; Wicks, G.

1994-01-01

High power multiple quantum well AlGaAs diode laser master oscillator - power amplifier (MOPA) systems were examined both experimentally and theoretically. For two pass operation, it was found that powers in excess of 0.3 W per 100 micrometers of facet length were achievable while maintaining diffraction-limited beam quality. Internal electrical-to-optical conversion efficiencies as high as 25 percent were observed at an internal amplifier gain of 9 dB. Theoretical modeling of multiple quantum well amplifiers was done using appropriate rate equations and a heuristic model of the carrier density dependent gain. The model gave a qualitative agreement with the experimental results. In addition, the model allowed exploration of a wider design space for the amplifiers. The model predicted that internal electrical-to-optical conversion efficiencies in excess of 50 percent should be achievable with careful system design. The model predicted that no global optimum design exists, but gain, efficiency, and optical confinement (coupling efficiency) can be mutually adjusted to meet a specific system requirement. A three quantum well, low optical confinement amplifier was fabricated using molecular beam epitaxial growth. Coherent beam combining of two high power amplifiers injected from a common master oscillator was also examined. Coherent beam combining with an efficiency of 93 percent resulted in a single beam having diffraction-limited characteristics. This beam combining efficiency is a world record result for such a system. Interferometric observations of the output of the amplifier indicated that spatial mode matching was a significant factor in the less than perfect beam combining. Finally, the system issues of arrays of amplifiers in a coherent beam combining system were investigated. Based upon experimentally observed parameters coherent beam combining could result in a megawatt-scale coherent beam with a 10 percent electrical-to-optical conversion efficiency.

POWER/SSE Web Access Data

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-06-25

Description:  Obtain Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) data The Prediction of Worldwide Energy ... (POWER) project was initiated to improve upon the current renewable energy data set and to create new data sets from new satellite ...

Research on prediction of agricultural machinery total power based on grey model optimized by genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Yan; Li, Mu; Zhou, Jin; Zheng, Chang-zheng

2009-07-01

Agricultural machinery total power is an important index to reflex and evaluate the level of agricultural mechanization. It is the power source of agricultural production, and is the main factors to enhance the comprehensive agricultural production capacity expand production scale and increase the income of the farmers. Its demand is affected by natural, economic, technological and social and other "grey" factors. Therefore, grey system theory can be used to analyze the development of agricultural machinery total power. A method based on genetic algorithm optimizing grey modeling process is introduced in this paper. This method makes full use of the advantages of the grey prediction model and characteristics of genetic algorithm to find global optimization. So the prediction model is more accurate. According to data from a province, the GM (1, 1) model for predicting agricultural machinery total power was given based on the grey system theories and genetic algorithm. The result indicates that the model can be used as agricultural machinery total power an effective tool for prediction.

Accelerated Testing and Modeling of Potential-Induced Degradation as a Function of Temperature and Relative Humidity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hacke, Peter; Spataru, Sergiu; Terwilliger, Kent

2015-06-14

An acceleration model based on the Peck equation was applied to power performance of crystalline silicon cell modules as a function of time and of temperature and humidity, the two main environmental stress factors that promote potential-induced degradation. This model was derived from module power degradation data obtained semi-continuously and statistically by in-situ dark current-voltage measurements in an environmental chamber. The modeling enables prediction of degradation rates and times as functions of temperature and humidity. Power degradation could be modeled linearly as a function of time to the second power; additionally, we found that coulombs transferred from the active cellmore » circuit to ground during the stress test is approximately linear with time. Therefore, the power loss could be linearized as a function of coulombs squared. With this result, we observed that when the module face was completely grounded with a condensed phase conductor, leakage current exceeded the anticipated corresponding degradation rate relative to the other tests performed in damp heat.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adigun, Babatunde John; Fensin, Michael Lorne; Galloway, Jack D.

Our burnup study examined the effect of a predicted critical control rod position on the nuclide predictability of several axial and radial locations within a 4×4 graphite moderated gas cooled reactor fuel cluster geometry. To achieve this, a control rod position estimator (CRPE) tool was developed within the framework of the linkage code Monteburns between the transport code MCNP and depletion code CINDER90, and four methodologies were proposed within the tool for maintaining criticality. Two of the proposed methods used an inverse multiplication approach - where the amount of fissile material in a set configuration is slowly altered until criticalitymore » is attained - in estimating the critical control rod position. Another method carried out several MCNP criticality calculations at different control rod positions, then used a linear fit to estimate the critical rod position. The final method used a second-order polynomial fit of several MCNP criticality calculations at different control rod positions to guess the critical rod position. The results showed that consistency in prediction of power densities as well as uranium and plutonium isotopics was mutual among methods within the CRPE tool that predicted critical position consistently well. Finall, while the CRPE tool is currently limited to manipulating a single control rod, future work could be geared toward implementing additional criticality search methodologies along with additional features.« less

Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosgaard, Martin; Giebel, Gregor; Skov Nielsen, Torben; Hahmann, Andrea; Sørensen, Poul; Madsen, Henrik

2013-04-01

This poster presents the current state of the public service obligation (PSO) funded project PSO 10464, with the title "Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool". The goal is to integrate a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with purely statistical tools in order to assess wind power fluctuations, with focus on long term power system planning for future wind farms as well as short term forecasting for existing wind farms. Currently, wind power fluctuation models are either purely statistical or integrated with NWP models of limited resolution. Using the state-of-the-art mesoscale NWP model Weather Research & Forecasting model (WRF) the forecast error is sought quantified in dependence of the time scale involved. This task constitutes a preparative study for later implementation of features accounting for NWP forecast errors in the DTU Wind Energy maintained Corwind code - a long term wind power planning tool. Within the framework of PSO 10464 research related to operational short term wind power prediction will be carried out, including a comparison of forecast quality at different mesoscale NWP model resolutions and development of a statistical wind power prediction tool taking input from WRF. The short term prediction part of the project is carried out in collaboration with ENFOR A/S; a Danish company that specialises in forecasting and optimisation for the energy sector. The integrated prediction model will allow for the description of the expected variability in wind power production in the coming hours to days, accounting for its spatio-temporal dependencies, and depending on the prevailing weather conditions defined by the WRF output. The output from the integrated short term prediction tool constitutes scenario forecasts for the coming period, which can then be fed into any type of system model or decision making problem to be solved. The high resolution of the WRF results loaded into the integrated prediction model will ensure a high accuracy data basis is available for use in the decision making process of the Danish transmission system operator. The need for high accuracy predictions will only increase over the next decade as Denmark approaches the goal of 50% wind power based electricity in 2025 from the current 20%.

Method for predicting water demand for crop uses in New Jersey in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, and for estimating water use for livestock and selected sectors of the food-processing industry in New Jersey in 1987

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clawges, R.M.; Titus, E.O.

1993-01-01

A method was developed to predict water demand for crop uses in New Jersey. A separate method was developed to estimate water use for livestock and selected sectors of the food-processing industry in 1987. Predictions of water demand for field- grown crops in New Jersey were made for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 under three climatological scenarios: (1) wet year, (2) average year, and (3) drought year. These estimates ranged from 4.10 times 10 to the 9th power to 16.82 times 10 to the 9th power gal (gallons). Irrigation amounts calculated for the three climatological scenarios by using a daily water-balance model were multiplied by predicted numbers of irrigated acreage. Irrigated acreage was predicted from historical crop-irrigation data and from predictions of harvested acreage produced by using a statistical model relating population to harvested acreage. Predictions of water demand for cranberries and container-grown nursery crops also were made for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. Predictions of water demand under the three climatological scenarios were made for container- grown nursery crops, but not for cranberries, because water demand for cranberries varies little in response to climatological factors. Water demand for cranberries was predicted to remain constant at 4.43 times 10 to the 9th power gal through the year 2020. Predictions of water demand for container-grown nursery crops ranged from 1.89 times 10 to the 9th power to 3.63 times 10 to the 9th power gal. Water-use for livestock in 1987 was estimated to be 0.78 times 10 to the 9th power gal, and water use for selected sectors of the food-processing industry was estimated to be 3.75 times 10 to the 9th power gal.

Simple Statistical Model to Quantify Maximum Expected EMC in Spacecraft and Avionics Boxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trout, Dawn H.; Bremner, Paul

2014-01-01

This study shows cumulative distribution function (CDF) comparisons of composite a fairing electromagnetic field data obtained by computational electromagnetic 3D full wave modeling and laboratory testing. Test and model data correlation is shown. In addition, this presentation shows application of the power balance and extention of this method to predict the variance and maximum exptected mean of the E-field data. This is valuable for large scale evaluations of transmission inside cavities.

Using Information Processing Techniques to Forecast, Schedule, and Deliver Sustainable Energy to Electric Vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulusani, Praneeth R.

As the number of electric vehicles on the road increases, current power grid infrastructure will not be able to handle the additional load. Some approaches in the area of Smart Grid research attempt to mitigate this, but those approaches alone will not be sufficient. Those approaches and traditional solution of increased power production can result in an insufficient and imbalanced power grid. It can lead to transformer blowouts, blackouts and blown fuses, etc. The proposed solution will supplement the ``Smart Grid'' to create a more sustainable power grid. To solve or mitigate the magnitude of the problem, measures can be taken that depend on weather forecast models. For instance, wind and solar forecasts can be used to create first order Markov chain models that will help predict the availability of additional power at certain times. These models will be used in conjunction with the information processing layer and bidirectional signal processing components of electric vehicle charging systems, to schedule the amount of energy transferred per time interval at various times. The research was divided into three distinct components: (1) Renewable Energy Supply Forecast Model, (2) Energy Demand Forecast from PEVs, and (3) Renewable Energy Resource Estimation. For the first component, power data from a local wind turbine, and weather forecast data from NOAA were used to develop a wind energy forecast model, using a first order Markov chain model as the foundation. In the second component, additional macro energy demand from PEVs in the Greater Rochester Area was forecasted by simulating concurrent driving routes. In the third component, historical data from renewable energy sources was analyzed to estimate the renewable resources needed to offset the energy demand from PEVs. The results from these models and components can be used in the smart grid applications for scheduling and delivering energy. Several solutions are discussed to mitigate the problem of overloading transformers, lack of energy supply, and higher utility costs.

Development and Use of the Galileo and Ulysses Power Sources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bennett, Gary L; Hemler, Richard J; Schock, Alfred

Paper presented at the 45th Congress of the International Astronautical Federation, October 1994. The Galileo mission to Jupiter and the Ulysses mission to explore the polar regions of the Sun required a new power source: the general-purpose heat source radioisotope thermoelectric generator (GPHS-RTG), the most powerful RTG yet flow. Four flight-qualified GPHS-RTGs were fabricated with one that is being used on Ulysses, two that are being used on Galileo and one that was a common spare (and is now available for the Cassini mission to Saturn). In addition, and Engineering Unit and a Qualification Unit were fabricated to qualify themore » design for space through rigorous ground tests. This paper summarizes the ground testing and performance predictions showing that the GPHS-RTGs have met and will continue to meet or exceed the performance requirements of the ongoing Galileo and Ulysses missions. There are two copies in the file.« less

Fitting cosmic microwave background data with cosmic strings and inflation.

PubMed

Bevis, Neil; Hindmarsh, Mark; Kunz, Martin; Urrestilla, Jon

2008-01-18

We perform a multiparameter likelihood analysis to compare measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) power spectra with predictions from models involving cosmic strings. Adding strings to the standard case of a primordial spectrum with power-law tilt ns, we find a 2sigma detection of strings: f10=0.11+/-0.05, where f10 is the fractional contribution made by strings in the temperature power spectrum (at l=10). CMB data give moderate preference to the model ns=1 with cosmic strings over the standard zero-strings model with variable tilt. When additional non-CMB data are incorporated, the two models become on a par. With variable ns and these extra data, we find that f10<0.11, which corresponds to Gmicro<0.7x10(-6) (where micro is the string tension and G is the gravitational constant).

RECOVERY ACT: DYNAMIC ENERGY CONSUMPTION MANAGEMENT OF ROUTING TELECOM AND DATA CENTERS THROUGH REAL-TIME OPTIMAL CONTROL (RTOC): Final Scientific/Technical Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ron Moon

This final scientific report documents the Industrial Technology Program (ITP) Stage 2 Concept Development effort on Data Center Energy Reduction and Management Through Real-Time Optimal Control (RTOC). Society is becoming increasingly dependent on information technology systems, driving exponential growth in demand for data center processing and an insatiable appetite for energy. David Raths noted, 'A 50,000-square-foot data center uses approximately 4 megawatts of power, or the equivalent of 57 barrels of oil a day1.' The problem has become so severe that in some cases, users are giving up raw performance for a better balance between performance and energy efficiency. Historically,more » power systems for data centers were crudely sized to meet maximum demand. Since many servers operate at 60%-90% of maximum power while only utilizing an average of 5% to 15% of their capability, there are huge inefficiencies in the consumption and delivery of power in these data centers. The goal of the 'Recovery Act: Decreasing Data Center Energy Use through Network and Infrastructure Control' is to develop a state of the art approach for autonomously and intelligently reducing and managing data center power through real-time optimal control. Advances in microelectronics and software are enabling the opportunity to realize significant data center power savings through the implementation of autonomous power management control algorithms. The first step to realizing these savings was addressed in this study through the successful creation of a flexible and scalable mathematical model (equation) for data center behavior and the formulation of an acceptable low technical risk market introduction strategy leveraging commercial hardware and software familiar to the data center market. Follow-on Stage 3 Concept Development efforts include predictive modeling and simulation of algorithm performance, prototype demonstrations with representative data center equipment to verify requisite performance and continued commercial partnering agreement formation to ensure uninterrupted development, and deployment of the real-time optimal control algorithm. As a software implementable technique for reducing power consumption, the RTOC has two very desirable traits supporting rapid prototyping and ultimately widespread dissemination. First, very little capital is required for implementation. No major infrastructure modifications are required and there is no need to purchase expensive capital equipment. Second, the RTOC can be rolled out incrementally. Therefore, the effectiveness can be proven without a large scale initial roll out. Through the use of the Impact Projections Model provided by the DOE, monetary savings in excess of $100M in 2020 and billions by 2040 are predicted. In terms of energy savings, the model predicts a primary energy displacement of 260 trillion BTUs (33 trillion kWh), or a 50% reduction in server power consumption. The model also predicts a corresponding reduction of pollutants such as SO2 and NOx in excess of 100,000 metric tonnes assuming the RTOC is fully deployed. While additional development and prototyping is required to validate these predictions, the relative low cost and ease of implementation compared to large capital projects makes it an ideal candidate for further investigation.« less

Multiphysics Computational Analysis of a Solid-Core Nuclear Thermal Engine Thrust Chamber

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Ten-See; Canabal, Francisco; Cheng, Gary; Chen, Yen-Sen

2007-01-01

The objective of this effort is to develop an efficient and accurate computational heat transfer methodology to predict thermal, fluid, and hydrogen environments for a hypothetical solid-core, nuclear thermal engine - the Small Engine. In addition, the effects of power profile and hydrogen conversion on heat transfer efficiency and thrust performance were also investigated. The computational methodology is based on an unstructured-grid, pressure-based, all speeds, chemically reacting, computational fluid dynamics platform, while formulations of conjugate heat transfer were implemented to describe the heat transfer from solid to hydrogen inside the solid-core reactor. The computational domain covers the entire thrust chamber so that the afore-mentioned heat transfer effects impact the thrust performance directly. The result shows that the computed core-exit gas temperature, specific impulse, and core pressure drop agree well with those of design data for the Small Engine. Finite-rate chemistry is very important in predicting the proper energy balance as naturally occurring hydrogen decomposition is endothermic. Locally strong hydrogen conversion associated with centralized power profile gives poor heat transfer efficiency and lower thrust performance. On the other hand, uniform hydrogen conversion associated with a more uniform radial power profile achieves higher heat transfer efficiency, and higher thrust performance.

Application of clustering analysis in the prediction of photovoltaic power generation based on neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, K.; Guo, L. M.; Wang, Y. K.; Zafar, M. T.

2017-11-01

In order to select effective samples in the large number of data of PV power generation years and improve the accuracy of PV power generation forecasting model, this paper studies the application of clustering analysis in this field and establishes forecasting model based on neural network. Based on three different types of weather on sunny, cloudy and rainy days, this research screens samples of historical data by the clustering analysis method. After screening, it establishes BP neural network prediction models using screened data as training data. Then, compare the six types of photovoltaic power generation prediction models before and after the data screening. Results show that the prediction model combining with clustering analysis and BP neural networks is an effective method to improve the precision of photovoltaic power generation.

Integrated modelling of H-mode pedestal and confinement in JET-ILW

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saarelma, S.; Challis, C. D.; Garzotti, L.; Frassinetti, L.; Maggi, C. F.; Romanelli, M.; Stokes, C.; Contributors, JET

2018-01-01

A pedestal prediction model Europed is built on the existing EPED1 model by coupling it with core transport simulation using a Bohm-gyroBohm transport model to self-consistently predict JET-ILW power scan for hybrid plasmas that display weaker power degradation than the IPB98(y, 2) scaling of the energy confinement time. The weak power degradation is reproduced in the coupled core-pedestal simulation. The coupled core-pedestal model is further tested for a 3.0 MA plasma with the highest stored energy achieved in JET-ILW so far, giving a prediction of the stored plasma energy within the error margins of the measured experimental value. A pedestal density prediction model based on the neutral penetration is tested on a JET-ILW database giving a prediction with an average error of 17% from the experimental data when a parameter taking into account the fuelling rate is added into the model. However the model fails to reproduce the power dependence of the pedestal density implying missing transport physics in the model. The future JET-ILW deuterium campaign with increased heating power is predicted to reach plasma energy of 11 MJ, which would correspond to 11-13 MW of fusion power in equivalent deuterium-tritium plasma but with isotope effects on pedestal stability and core transport ignored.

A simple microbial fuel cell model for improvement of biomedical device powering times.

PubMed

Roxby, Daniel N; Tran, Nham; Nguyen, Hung T

2014-01-01

This study describes a Matlab based Microbial Fuel Cell (MFC) model for a suspended microbial population, in the anode chamber for the use of the MFC in powering biomedical devices. The model contains three main sections including microbial growth, microbial chemical uptake and secretion and electrochemical modeling. The microbial growth portion is based on a Continuously Stirred Tank Reactor (CSTR) model for the microbial growth with substrate and electron acceptors. Microbial stoichiometry is used to determine chemical concentrations and their rates of change and transfer within the MFC. These parameters are then used in the electrochemical modeling for calculating current, voltage and power. The model was tested for typically exhibited MFC characteristics including increased electrode distances and surface areas, overpotentials and operating temperatures. Implantable biomedical devices require long term powering which is the main objective for MFCs. Towards this end, our model was tested with different initial substrate and electron acceptor concentrations, revealing a four-fold increase in concentrations decreased the power output time by 50%. Additionally, the model also predicts that for a 35.7% decrease in specific growth rate, a 50% increase in power longevity is possible.

Simulations of Low Power DIII-D Helicon Antenna Coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smithe, David; Jenkins, Thomas

2017-10-01

We present an overview and initial progress for a new project to model coupling of the DIII-D Helicon Antenna. We lay the necessary computational groundwork for the modeling of both low-power and high power helicon antenna operation, by constructing numerical representations for both the antenna hardware and the DIII-D plasma. CAD files containing the detailed geometry of the low power antenna hardware are imported into the VSim software's FDTD plasma model. The plasma can be represented numerically by importing EQDSK or EFIT files. In addition, approximate analytic forms for the ensuing profiles and fields are constructed to facilitate parameter scans in the various regimes of anticipated antenna operation. To verify the accuracy of the numerical plasma and antenna representations, we will then run baseline simulations of low-power antenna operation, and verify that the predictions for loading, linear coupling, and mode partitioning (i.e. into helicon and slow modes) are consistent with the measurements from the low power helicon antenna experimental campaign, as well as with other independent models. Progress on these baseline simulations will be presented, and any inconsistencies and issues that arise during this process will be identified. Support provided by DOE Grant DE-SC0017843.

Maximum predictive power and the superposition principle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Summhammer, Johann

1994-01-01

In quantum physics the direct observables are probabilities of events. We ask how observed probabilities must be combined to achieve what we call maximum predictive power. According to this concept the accuracy of a prediction must only depend on the number of runs whose data serve as input for the prediction. We transform each probability to an associated variable whose uncertainty interval depends only on the amount of data and strictly decreases with it. We find that for a probability which is a function of two other probabilities maximum predictive power is achieved when linearly summing their associated variables and transforming back to a probability. This recovers the quantum mechanical superposition principle.

Technical Note: On the calculation of stopping-power ratio for stoichiometric calibration in proton therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ödén, Jakob; Zimmerman, Jens; Nowik, Patrik

2015-09-15

Purpose: The quantitative effects of assumptions made in the calculation of stopping-power ratios (SPRs) are investigated, for stoichiometric CT calibration in proton therapy. The assumptions investigated include the use of the Bethe formula without correction terms, Bragg additivity, the choice of I-value for water, and the data source for elemental I-values. Methods: The predictions of the Bethe formula for SPR (no correction terms) were validated against more sophisticated calculations using the SRIM software package for 72 human tissues. A stoichiometric calibration was then performed at our hospital. SPR was calculated for the human tissues using either the assumption of simplemore » Bragg additivity or the Seltzer-Berger rule (as used in ICRU Reports 37 and 49). In each case, the calculation was performed twice: First, by assuming the I-value of water was an experimentally based value of 78 eV (value proposed in Errata and Addenda for ICRU Report 73) and second, by recalculating the I-value theoretically. The discrepancy between predictions using ICRU elemental I-values and the commonly used tables of Janni was also investigated. Results: Errors due to neglecting the correction terms to the Bethe formula were calculated at less than 0.1% for biological tissues. Discrepancies greater than 1%, however, were estimated due to departures from simple Bragg additivity when a fixed I-value for water was imposed. When the I-value for water was calculated in a consistent manner to that for tissue, this disagreement was substantially reduced. The difference between SPR predictions when using Janni’s or ICRU tables for I-values was up to 1.6%. Experimental data used for materials of relevance to proton therapy suggest that the ICRU-derived values provide somewhat more accurate results (root-mean-square-error: 0.8% versus 1.6%). Conclusions: The conclusions from this study are that (1) the Bethe formula can be safely used for SPR calculations without correction terms; (2) simple Bragg additivity can be reasonably assumed for compound materials; (3) if simple Bragg additivity is assumed, then the I-value for water should be calculated in a consistent manner to that of the tissue of interest (rather than using an experimentally derived value); (4) the ICRU Report 37 I-values may provide a better agreement with experiment than Janni’s tables.« less

Predictive ability of a comprehensive incremental test in mountain bike marathon

PubMed Central

Schneeweiss, Patrick; Martus, Peter; Niess, Andreas M; Krauss, Inga

2018-01-01

Objectives Traditional performance tests in mountain bike marathon (XCM) primarily quantify aerobic metabolism and may not describe the relevant capacities in XCM. We aimed to validate a comprehensive test protocol quantifying its intermittent demands. Methods Forty-nine athletes (38.8±9.1 years; 38 male; 11 female) performed a laboratory performance test, including an incremental test, to determine individual anaerobic threshold (IAT), peak power output (PPO) and three maximal efforts (10 s all-out sprint, 1 min maximal effort and 5 min maximal effort). Within 2 weeks, the athletes participated in one of three XCM races (n=15, n=9 and n=25). Correlations between test variables and race times were calculated separately. In addition, multiple regression models of the predictive value of laboratory outcomes were calculated for race 3 and across all races (z-transformed data). Results All variables were correlated with race times 1, 2 and 3: 10 s all-out sprint (r=−0.72; r=−0.59; r=−0.61), 1 min maximal effort (r=−0.85; r=−0.84; r=−0.82), 5 min maximal effort (r=−0.57; r=−0.85; r=−0.76), PPO (r=−0.77; r=−0.73; r=−0.76) and IAT (r=−0.71; r=−0.67; r=−0.68). The best-fitting multiple regression models for race 3 (r2=0.868) and across all races (r2=0.757) comprised 1 min maximal effort, IAT and body weight. Conclusion Aerobic and intermittent variables correlated least strongly with race times. Their use in a multiple regression model confirmed additional explanatory power to predict XCM performance. These findings underline the usefulness of the comprehensive incremental test to predict performance in that sport more precisely. PMID:29387445

[Executive functions and stressful characteristics of children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder: influence on behavioral problems during adolescence].

PubMed

Colomer-Diago, Carla; Miranda-Casas, Ana; Herdoiza-Arroyo, Paulina; Presentación-Herrero, M Jesús

2012-02-29

The identification of possible factors that are influencing the course of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) will allow the development of more effective early intervention strategies. AIMS. This research, which used a longitudinal and correlational design, set out to examine the temporal consistency of the primary symptoms and ADHD associated problems. In addition, the relationships and predictive power of working memory, inhibition and stressful characteristics of children with ADHD on the disorder symptoms and behavioral problems in adolescence was analyzed. This study included 65 families with children diagnosed with ADHD. In phase 1 children performed verbal working memory, visuo-spatial and inhibition tests, and information from parents about stressful characteristics of children was collected. In phase 1 and in the follow-up phase, which took place three years later, parents and teachers reported on the primary symptoms of ADHD and behavioral problems. Inattention symptoms as well as most behavioral problems were stable over time, while hyperactivity/impulsivity symptoms decreased. Moreover, neither working memory nor inhibition showed power to predict the central manifestations of ADHD or behavioral problems, while stressful characteristics of demandingness, low adaptability and negative mood had a moderate predictive capacity. These results confirm the role of stressful child characteristics as a risk factor in the course of ADHD.

Heterogeneity of long-history migration predicts emotion recognition accuracy.

PubMed

Wood, Adrienne; Rychlowska, Magdalena; Niedenthal, Paula M

2016-06-01

Recent work (Rychlowska et al., 2015) demonstrated the power of a relatively new cultural dimension, historical heterogeneity, in predicting cultural differences in the endorsement of emotion expression norms. Historical heterogeneity describes the number of source countries that have contributed to a country's present-day population over the last 500 years. People in cultures originating from a large number of source countries may have historically benefited from greater and clearer emotional expressivity, because they lacked a common language and well-established social norms. We therefore hypothesized that in addition to endorsing more expressive display rules, individuals from heterogeneous cultures will also produce facial expressions that are easier to recognize by people from other cultures. By reanalyzing cross-cultural emotion recognition data from 92 papers and 82 cultures, we show that emotion expressions of people from heterogeneous cultures are more easily recognized by observers from other cultures than are the expressions produced in homogeneous cultures. Heterogeneity influences expression recognition rates alongside the individualism-collectivism of the perceivers' culture, as more individualistic cultures were more accurate in emotion judgments than collectivistic cultures. This work reveals the present-day behavioral consequences of long-term historical migration patterns and demonstrates the predictive power of historical heterogeneity. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Observation of an optical spring with a beam splitter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cripe, Jonathan; Danz, Baylee; Lane, Benjamin; Lorio, Mary Catherine; Falcone, Julia; Cole, Garrett D.; Corbitt, Thomas

2018-05-01

We present the experimental observation of an optical spring without the use of an optical cavity. The optical spring is produced by interference at a beamsplitter and, in principle, does not have the damping force associated with optical springs created in detuned cavities. The experiment consists of a Michelson-Sagnac interferometer (with no recycling cavities) with a partially reflective GaAs microresonator as the beamsplitter that produces the optical spring. Our experimental measurements at input powers of up to 360 mW show the shift of the optical spring frequency as a function of power and are in excellent agreement with theoretical predictions. In addition, we show that the optical spring is able to keep the interferometer stable and locked without the use of external feedback.

Observation of two-beam collective scattering phenomena in a Bose-Einstein condensate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimitrova, Ivana; Lunden, William; Amato-Grill, Jesse; Jepsen, Niklas; Yu, Yichao; Messer, Michael; Rigaldo, Thomas; Puentes, Graciana; Weld, David; Ketterle, Wolfgang

2017-11-01

Different regimes of collective light scattering are observed when an elongated Bose-Einstein condensate is pumped by two noninterfering beams counterpropagating along its long axis. In the limit of small Rayleigh scattering rates, the presence of a second pump beam suppresses superradiance, whereas at large Rayleigh scattering rates it lowers the effective threshold power for collective light scattering. In the latter regime, the quench dynamics of the two-beam system are oscillatory, compared to monotonic in the single-beam case. In addition, the dependence on power, detuning, and atom number is explored. The observed features of the two-beam system qualitatively agree with the recent theoretical prediction of a supersolid crystalline phase of light and matter at large Rayleigh scattering rates.

Pretest thermal analysis of the Tuff Water Migration/In-Situ Heater Experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bulmer, B.M.

This report describes the pretest thermal analysis for the Tuff Water Migration/In-Situ Heater Experiment to be conducted in welded tuff in G-tunnel, Nevada Test Site. The parametric thermal modeling considers variable boiling temperature, tuff thermal conductivity, tuff emissivity, and heater operating power. For nominal tuff properties, some near field boiling is predicted for realistic operating power. However, the extent of boiling will be strongly determined by the ambient (100% water saturated) rock thermal conductivity. In addition, the thermal response of the heater and of the tuff within the dry-out zone (i.e., bounded by boiling isotherm) is dependent on the temperaturemore » variation of rock conductivity as well as the extent of induced boiling.« less

Real-time pricing strategy of micro-grid energy centre considering price-based demand response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhiheng; Zhang, Yongjun; Wang, Gan

2017-07-01

With the development of energy conversion technology such as power to gas (P2G), fuel cell and so on, the coupling between energy sources becomes more and more closely. Centralized dispatch among electricity, natural gas and heat will become a trend. With the goal of maximizing the system revenue, this paper establishes the model of micro-grid energy centre based on energy hub. According to the proposed model, the real-time pricing strategy taking into account price-based demand response of load is developed. And the influence of real-time pricing strategy on the peak load shifting is discussed. In addition, the impact of wind power predicted inaccuracy on real-time pricing strategy is analysed.

Dissolved oxygen content prediction in crab culture using a hybrid intelligent method

PubMed Central

Yu, Huihui; Chen, Yingyi; Hassan, ShahbazGul; Li, Daoliang

2016-01-01

A precise predictive model is needed to obtain a clear understanding of the changing dissolved oxygen content in outdoor crab ponds, to assess how to reduce risk and to optimize water quality management. The uncertainties in the data from multiple sensors are a significant factor when building a dissolved oxygen content prediction model. To increase prediction accuracy, a new hybrid dissolved oxygen content forecasting model based on the radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN) data fusion method and a least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) with an optimal improved particle swarm optimization(IPSO) is developed. In the modelling process, the RBFNN data fusion method is used to improve information accuracy and provide more trustworthy training samples for the IPSO-LSSVM prediction model. The LSSVM is a powerful tool for achieving nonlinear dissolved oxygen content forecasting. In addition, an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is developed to determine the optimal parameters for the LSSVM with high accuracy and generalizability. In this study, the comparison of the prediction results of different traditional models validates the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed hybrid RBFNN-IPSO-LSSVM model for dissolved oxygen content prediction in outdoor crab ponds. PMID:27270206

Dissolved oxygen content prediction in crab culture using a hybrid intelligent method.

PubMed

Yu, Huihui; Chen, Yingyi; Hassan, ShahbazGul; Li, Daoliang

2016-06-08

A precise predictive model is needed to obtain a clear understanding of the changing dissolved oxygen content in outdoor crab ponds, to assess how to reduce risk and to optimize water quality management. The uncertainties in the data from multiple sensors are a significant factor when building a dissolved oxygen content prediction model. To increase prediction accuracy, a new hybrid dissolved oxygen content forecasting model based on the radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN) data fusion method and a least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) with an optimal improved particle swarm optimization(IPSO) is developed. In the modelling process, the RBFNN data fusion method is used to improve information accuracy and provide more trustworthy training samples for the IPSO-LSSVM prediction model. The LSSVM is a powerful tool for achieving nonlinear dissolved oxygen content forecasting. In addition, an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is developed to determine the optimal parameters for the LSSVM with high accuracy and generalizability. In this study, the comparison of the prediction results of different traditional models validates the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed hybrid RBFNN-IPSO-LSSVM model for dissolved oxygen content prediction in outdoor crab ponds.

Synchrophasor Sensing and Processing based Smart Grid Security Assessment for Renewable Energy Integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Huaiguang

With the evolution of energy and power systems, the emerging Smart Grid (SG) is mainly featured by distributed renewable energy generations, demand-response control and huge amount of heterogeneous data sources. Widely distributed synchrophasor sensors, such as phasor measurement units (PMUs) and fault disturbance recorders (FDRs), can record multi-modal signals, for power system situational awareness and renewable energy integration. An effective and economical approach is proposed for wide-area security assessment. This approach is based on wavelet analysis for detecting and locating the short-term and long-term faults in SG, using voltage signals collected by distributed synchrophasor sensors. A data-driven approach for fault detection, identification and location is proposed and studied. This approach is based on matching pursuit decomposition (MPD) using Gaussian atom dictionary, hidden Markov model (HMM) of real-time frequency and voltage variation features, and fault contour maps generated by machine learning algorithms in SG systems. In addition, considering the economic issues, the placement optimization of distributed synchrophasor sensors is studied to reduce the number of the sensors without affecting the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed approach. Furthermore, because the natural hazards is a critical issue for power system security, this approach is studied under different types of faults caused by natural hazards. A fast steady-state approach is proposed for voltage security of power systems with a wind power plant connected. The impedance matrix can be calculated by the voltage and current information collected by the PMUs. Based on the impedance matrix, locations in SG can be identified, where cause the greatest impact on the voltage at the wind power plants point of interconnection. Furthermore, because this dynamic voltage security assessment method relies on time-domain simulations of faults at different locations, the proposed approach is feasible, convenient and effective. Conventionally, wind energy is highly location-dependent. Many desirable wind resources are located in rural areas without direct access to the transmission grid. By connecting MW-scale wind turbines or wind farms to the distributions system of SG, the cost of building long transmission facilities can be avoid and wind power supplied to consumers can be greatly increased. After the effective wide area monitoring (WAM) approach is built, an event-driven control strategy is proposed for renewable energy integration. This approach is based on support vector machine (SVM) predictor and multiple-input and multiple-output (MIMO) model predictive control (MPC) on linear time-invariant (LTI) and linear time-variant (LTV) systems. The voltage condition of the distribution system is predicted by the SVM classifier using synchrophasor measurement data. The controllers equipped with wind turbine generators are triggered by the prediction results. Both transmission level and distribution level are designed based on this proposed approach. Considering economic issues in the power system, a statistical scheduling approach to economic dispatch and energy reserves is proposed. The proposed approach focuses on minimizing the overall power operating cost with considerations of renewable energy uncertainty and power system security. The hybrid power system scheduling is formulated as a convex programming problem to minimize power operating cost, taking considerations of renewable energy generation, power generation-consumption balance and power system security. A genetic algorithm based approach is used for solving the minimization of the power operating cost. In addition, with technology development, it can be predicted that the renewable energy such as wind turbine generators and PV panels will be pervasively located in distribution systems. The distribution system is an unbalanced system, which contains single-phase, two-phase and three-phase loads, and distribution lines. The complex configuration brings a challenge to power flow calculation. A topology analysis based iterative approach is used to solve this problem. In this approach, a self-adaptive topology recognition method is used to analyze the distribution system, and the backward/forward sweep algorithm is used to generate the power flow results. Finally, for the numerical simulations, the IEEE 14-bus, 30-bus, 39-bus and 118-bus systems are studied for fault detection, identification and location. Both transmission level and distribution level models are employed with the proposed control strategy for voltage stability of renewable energy integration. The simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods. The IEEE 24-bus reliability test system (IEEE-RTS), which is commonly used for evaluating the price stability and reliability of power system, is used as the test bench for verifying and evaluating system performance of the proposed scheduling approach.

A Matter of Classes: Stratifying Health Care Populations to Produce Better Estimates of Inpatient Costs

PubMed Central

Rein, David B

2005-01-01

Objective To stratify traditional risk-adjustment models by health severity classes in a way that is empirically based, is accessible to policy makers, and improves predictions of inpatient costs. Data Sources Secondary data created from the administrative claims from all 829,356 children aged 21 years and under enrolled in Georgia Medicaid in 1999. Study Design A finite mixture model was used to assign child Medicaid patients to health severity classes. These class assignments were then used to stratify both portions of a traditional two-part risk-adjustment model predicting inpatient Medicaid expenditures. Traditional model results were compared with the stratified model using actuarial statistics. Principal Findings The finite mixture model identified four classes of children: a majority healthy class and three illness classes with increasing levels of severity. Stratifying the traditional two-part risk-adjustment model by health severity classes improved its R2 from 0.17 to 0.25. The majority of additional predictive power resulted from stratifying the second part of the two-part model. Further, the preference for the stratified model was unaffected by months of patient enrollment time. Conclusions Stratifying health care populations based on measures of health severity is a powerful method to achieve more accurate cost predictions. Insurers who ignore the predictive advances of sample stratification in setting risk-adjusted premiums may create strong financial incentives for adverse selection. Finite mixture models provide an empirically based, replicable methodology for stratification that should be accessible to most health care financial managers. PMID:16033501

Does Spontaneous Favorability to Power (vs. Universalism) Values Predict Spontaneous Prejudice and Discrimination?

PubMed

Souchon, Nicolas; Maio, Gregory R; Hanel, Paul H P; Bardin, Brigitte

2017-10-01

We conducted five studies testing whether an implicit measure of favorability toward power over universalism values predicts spontaneous prejudice and discrimination. Studies 1 (N = 192) and 2 (N = 86) examined correlations between spontaneous favorability toward power (vs. universalism) values, achievement (vs. benevolence) values, and a spontaneous measure of prejudice toward ethnic minorities. Study 3 (N = 159) tested whether conditioning participants to associate power values with positive adjectives and universalism values with negative adjectives (or inversely) affects spontaneous prejudice. Study 4 (N = 95) tested whether decision bias toward female handball players could be predicted by spontaneous attitude toward power (vs. universalism) values. Study 5 (N = 123) examined correlations between spontaneous attitude toward power (vs. universalism) values, spontaneous importance toward power (vs. universalism) values, and spontaneous prejudice toward Black African people. Spontaneous positivity toward power (vs. universalism) values was associated with spontaneous negativity toward minorities and predicted gender bias in a decision task, whereas the explicit measures did not. These results indicate that the implicit assessment of evaluative responses attached to human values helps to model value-attitude-behavior relations. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Personality Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Electric Power Engineering Cost Predicting Model Based on the PCA-GA-BP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Lei; Yu, Jiake; Zhao, Xin

2017-10-01

In this paper a hybrid prediction algorithm: PCA-GA-BP model is proposed. PCA algorithm is established to reduce the correlation between indicators of original data and decrease difficulty of BP neural network in complex dimensional calculation. The BP neural network is established to estimate the cost of power transmission project. The results show that PCA-GA-BP algorithm can improve result of prediction of electric power engineering cost.

Population impact of familial and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia: a nationwide study.

PubMed

Sørensen, Holger J; Nielsen, Philip R; Pedersen, Carsten B; Benros, Michael E; Nordentoft, Merete; Mortensen, Preben B

2014-03-01

Although several studies have examined the relative contributions of familial and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia, few have additionally examined the predictive power on the individual level and simultaneously examined the population impact associated with a wide range of familial and environmental risk factors. The authors present rate ratios (IRR), population-attributable risks (PAR) and sex-specific cumulative incidences of the following risk factors: parental history of mental illness, urban place of birth, advanced paternal age, parental loss and immigration status. We established a population-based cohort of 2,486,646million persons born in Denmark between 1 January 1955 and 31 December 1993 using Danish registers. We found that PAR associated with urban birth was 11.73%; PAR associated with one, respectively 2, parent(s) with schizophrenia was 2.67% and 0.12%. PAR associated with second-generation immigration was 0.70%. Highest cumulative incidence (CI=20.23%; 95% CI=18.10-22.62) was found in male offspring of 2 parents with schizophrenia. Cumulative incidences for male offspring or female offspring of a parent with schizophrenia were 9.53% (95% CI=7.71-11.79), and 4.89%, (95% CI 4.50-5.31). The study showed that risk factors with highest predictive power on the individual level have a relatively low population impact. The challenge in future studies with direct genetic data is to examine gene-environmental interactions that can move research beyond current approaches and seek to achieve higher predictive power on the individual level and higher population impact. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improved techniques for predicting spacecraft power

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chmielewski, A. B.

1987-01-01

Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) are going to supply power for the NASA Galileo and Ulysses spacecraft now scheduled to be launched in 1989 and 1990. The duration of the Galileo mission is expected to be over 8 years. This brings the total RTG lifetime to 13 years. In 13 years, the RTG power drops more than 20 percent leaving a very small power margin over what is consumed by the spacecraft. Thus it is very important to accurately predict the RTG performance and be able to assess the magnitude of errors involved. The paper lists all the error sources involved in the RTG power predictions and describes a statistical method for calculating the tolerance.

Comparison of free-piston Stirling engine model predictions with RE1000 engine test data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tew, R. C., Jr.

1984-01-01

Predictions of a free-piston Stirling engine model are compared with RE1000 engine test data taken at NASA-Lewis Research Center. The model validation and the engine testing are being done under a joint interagency agreement between the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory and NASA-Lewis. A kinematic code developed at Lewis was upgraded to permit simulation of free-piston engine performance; it was further upgraded and modified at Lewis and is currently being validated. The model predicts engine performance by numerical integration of equations for each control volume in the working space. Piston motions are determined by numerical integration of the force balance on each piston or can be specified as Fourier series. In addition, the model Fourier analyzes the various piston forces to permit the construction of phasor force diagrams. The paper compares predicted and experimental values of power and efficiency and shows phasor force diagrams for the RE1000 engine displacer and piston. Further development plans for the model are also discussed.

Trait psychopathy, emotional intelligence, and criminal thinking: Predicting illegal behavior among college students.

PubMed

Fix, Rebecca L; Fix, Spencer T

2015-01-01

Research focusing on individuals high on trait psychopathy remains limited. Higher trait psychopathy is associated with lower levels of emotional intelligence and increased participation in illegal behavior. Additionally, research has confirmed significantly higher levels of criminal thinking and lower levels of empathy in the incarcerated psychopathic population. However, the relationships between trait psychopathy and criminal thinking have not been researched in the community or college population. To test for such differences, questionnaires containing relevant measures were administered to 111 college students. Results indicated that higher levels of trait psychopathy were significantly related to less caring for others, intrapersonal understanding, and general mood, and greater interpersonal functioning and stress management. Furthermore, trait psychopathy was a strong predictor of violent, property, drug, and status offenses. Power-oriented criminal thinking was also predictive of violent behaviors, and entitlement predicted property offending. Results suggest emotional intelligence is important for predicting psychopathy, and trait psychopathy is a strong predictor of all types of illegal behaviors among the non-incarcerated population. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Geographic potential of disease caused by Ebola and Marburg viruses in Africa.

PubMed

Peterson, A Townsend; Samy, Abdallah M

2016-10-01

Filoviruses represent a significant public health threat worldwide. West Africa recently experienced the largest-scale and most complex filovirus outbreak yet known, which underlines the need for a predictive understanding of the geographic distribution and potential for transmission to humans of these viruses. Here, we used ecological niche modeling techniques to understand the relationship between known filovirus occurrences and environmental characteristics. Our study derived a picture of the potential transmission geography of Ebola virus species and Marburg, paired with views of the spatial uncertainty associated with model-to-model variation in our predictions. We found that filovirus species have diverged ecologically, but only three species are sufficiently well known that models could be developed with significant predictive power. We quantified uncertainty in predictions, assessed potential for outbreaks outside of known transmission areas, and highlighted the Ethiopian Highlands and scattered areas across East Africa as additional potentially unrecognized transmission areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling nucleation and coagulation modes in the formation of particulate matter inside a turbulent exhaust plume of a diesel engine.

PubMed

Kim, Dong-Hee; Gautam, Mridul; Gera, Dinesh

2002-05-01

This paper presents the results from a study that is aimed at predicting the nucleation, coagulation, and dynamics of particulate matter (PM) emissions from on-road heavy-duty diesel vehicles. The PM concentration is predicted from the composition of fuel, and operating and ambient conditions. A numerical algorithm for simultaneously solving the coagulation, condensation, and nucleation equations is developed. The effect of relative humidity on the nucleation rate and the nucleus size is also discussed. In addition, the effect of the ambient air dilution on PM size distribution is numerically predicted for a diesel-powered truck operating in a controlled environment at NASA Langley wind-tunnel facility. The particle size distribution and concentration are measured at four different locations in a turbulent plume from the diesel exhaust in the tunnel, and an excellent agreement between the measured and predicted PM concentration values at these locations inside the tunnel is observed.

Real estate value prediction using multivariate regression models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manjula, R.; Jain, Shubham; Srivastava, Sharad; Rajiv Kher, Pranav

2017-11-01

The real estate market is one of the most competitive in terms of pricing and the same tends to vary significantly based on a lot of factors, hence it becomes one of the prime fields to apply the concepts of machine learning to optimize and predict the prices with high accuracy. Therefore in this paper, we present various important features to use while predicting housing prices with good accuracy. We have described regression models, using various features to have lower Residual Sum of Squares error. While using features in a regression model some feature engineering is required for better prediction. Often a set of features (multiple regressions) or polynomial regression (applying a various set of powers in the features) is used for making better model fit. For these models are expected to be susceptible towards over fitting ridge regression is used to reduce it. This paper thus directs to the best application of regression models in addition to other techniques to optimize the result.

Power quality analysis based on spatial correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiangtao; Zhao, Gang; Liu, Haibo; Li, Fenghou; Liu, Xiaoli

2018-03-01

With the industrialization and urbanization, the status of electricity in the production and life is getting higher and higher. So the prediction of power quality is the more potential significance. Traditional power quality analysis methods include: power quality data compression, disturbance event pattern classification, disturbance parameter calculation. Under certain conditions, these methods can predict power quality. This paper analyses the temporal variation of power quality of one provincial power grid in China from time angle. The distribution of power quality was analyzed based on spatial autocorrelation. This paper tries to prove that the research idea of geography is effective for mining the potential information of power quality.

Safety behavior: Job demands, job resources, and perceived management commitment to safety.

PubMed

Hansez, Isabelle; Chmiel, Nik

2010-07-01

The job demands-resources model posits that job demands and resources influence outcomes through job strain and work engagement processes. We test whether the model can be extended to effort-related "routine" safety violations and "situational" safety violations provoked by the organization. In addition we test more directly the involvement of job strain than previous studies which have used burnout measures. Structural equation modeling provided, for the first time, evidence of predicted relationships between job strain and "routine" violations and work engagement with "routine" and "situational" violations, thereby supporting the extension of the job demands-resources model to safety behaviors. In addition our results showed that a key safety-specific construct 'perceived management commitment to safety' added to the explanatory power of the job demands-resources model. A predicted path from job resources to perceived management commitment to safety was highly significant, supporting the view that job resources can influence safety behavior through both general motivational involvement in work (work engagement) and through safety-specific processes.

Predicting power-optimal kinematics of avian wings

PubMed Central

Parslew, Ben

2015-01-01

A theoretical model of avian flight is developed which simulates wing motion through a class of methods known as predictive simulation. This approach uses numerical optimization to predict power-optimal kinematics of avian wings in hover, cruise, climb and descent. The wing dynamics capture both aerodynamic and inertial loads. The model is used to simulate the flight of the pigeon, Columba livia, and the results are compared with previous experimental measurements. In cruise, the model unearths a vast range of kinematic modes that are capable of generating the required forces for flight. The most efficient mode uses a near-vertical stroke–plane and a flexed-wing upstroke, similar to kinematics recorded experimentally. In hover, the model predicts that the power-optimal mode uses an extended-wing upstroke, similar to hummingbirds. In flexing their wings, pigeons are predicted to consume 20% more power than if they kept their wings full extended, implying that the typical kinematics used by pigeons in hover are suboptimal. Predictions of climbing flight suggest that the most energy-efficient way to reach a given altitude is to climb as steeply as possible, subjected to the availability of power. PMID:25392398

Performance of comorbidity, risk adjustment, and functional status measures in expenditure prediction for patients with diabetes.

PubMed

Maciejewski, Matthew L; Liu, Chuan-Fen; Fihn, Stephan D

2009-01-01

To compare the ability of generic comorbidity and risk adjustment measures, a diabetes-specific measure, and a self-reported functional status measure to explain variation in health care expenditures for individuals with diabetes. This study included a retrospective cohort of 3,092 diabetic veterans participating in a multisite trial. Two comorbidity measures, four risk adjusters, a functional status measure, a diabetes complication count, and baseline expenditures were constructed from administrative and survey data. Outpatient, inpatient, and total expenditure models were estimated using ordinary least squares regression. Adjusted R(2) statistics and predictive ratios were compared across measures to assess overall explanatory power and explanatory power of low- and high-cost subgroups. Administrative data-based risk adjusters performed better than the comorbidity, functional status, and diabetes-specific measures in all expenditure models. The diagnostic cost groups (DCGs) measure had the greatest predictive power overall and for the low- and high-cost subgroups, while the diabetes-specific measure had the lowest predictive power. A model with DCGs and the diabetes-specific measure modestly improved predictive power. Existing generic measures can be useful for diabetes-specific research and policy applications, but more predictive diabetes-specific measures are needed.

Prediction of light aircraft interior sound pressure level using the room equation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atwal, M.; Bernhard, R.

1984-01-01

The room equation is investigated for predicting interior sound level. The method makes use of an acoustic power balance, by equating net power flow into the cabin volume to power dissipated within the cabin using the room equation. The sound power level transmitted through the panels was calculated by multiplying the measured space averaged transmitted intensity for each panel by its surface area. The sound pressure level was obtained by summing the mean square sound pressures radiated from each panel. The data obtained supported the room equation model in predicting the cabin interior sound pressure level.

Experimental Evaluation of a Method for Turbocharging Four-Stroke, Single Cylinder, Internal Combustion Engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchman, Michael; Winter, Amos

2015-11-01

Turbocharging an engine increases specific power, improves fuel economy, reduces emissions, and lowers cost compared to a naturally aspirated engine of the same power output. These advantages make turbocharging commonplace for multi-cylinder engines. Single cylinder engineers are not commonly turbocharged due to the phase lag between the exhaust stroke, which powers the turbocharger, and the intake stroke, when air is pumped into the engine. Our proposed method of turbocharging single cylinder engines is to add an ``air capacitor'' to the intake manifold, an additional volume that acts as a buffer to store compressed air between the exhaust and intake strokes, and smooth out the pressure pulses from the turbocharger. This talk presents experimental results from a single cylinder, turbocharged diesel engine fit with various sized air capacitors. Power output from the engine was measured using a dynamometer made from a generator, with the electrical power dissipated with resistive heating elements. We found that intake air density increases with capacitor size as theoretically predicted, ranging from 40 to 60 percent depending on heat transfer. Our experiment was able to produce 29 percent more power compared to using natural aspiration. These results validated that an air capacitor and turbocharger may be a simple, cost effective means of increasing the power density of single cylinder engines.

Applicability of internet search index for asthma admission forecast using machine learning.

PubMed

Luo, Li; Liao, Chengcheng; Zhang, Fengyi; Zhang, Wei; Li, Chunyang; Qiu, Zhixin; Huang, Debin

2018-04-15

This study aimed to determine whether a search index could provide insight into trends in asthma admission in China. An Internet search index is a powerful tool to monitor and predict epidemic outbreaks. However, whether using an internet search index can significantly improve asthma admissions forecasts remains unknown. The long-term goal is to develop a surveillance system to help early detection and interventions for asthma and to avoid asthma health care resource shortages in advance. In this study, we used a search index combined with air pollution data, weather data, and historical admissions data to forecast asthma admissions using machine learning. Results demonstrated that the best area under the curve in the test set that can be achieved is 0.832, using all predictors mentioned earlier. A search index is a powerful predictor in asthma admissions forecast, and a recent search index can reflect current asthma admissions with a lag-effect to a certain extent. The addition of a real-time, easily accessible search index improves forecasting capabilities and demonstrates the predictive potential of search index. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Freezing of soft spheres: A critical test for weighted-density-functional theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laird, Brian B.; Kroll, D. M.

1990-10-01

We study the freezing properties of systems with inverse-power and Yukawa interactions (soft spheres), using recently developed weighted-density-functional theories. We find that the modified weighted-density-functional approximation (MWDA) of Denton and Ashcroft yields results for the liquid to face-centered-cubic (fcc) structure transition that represent a significant improvement over those of earlier ``second-order'' density-functional freezing theories; however, this theory, like the earlier ones, fails to predict any liquid to body-centered-cubic (bcc) transition, even under conditions where the computer simulations indicate that this should be the equilibrium solid structure. In addition, we show that both the modified effective-liquid approximation (MELA) of Baus [J. Phys. Condens. Matter 2, 2111 (1990)] and the generalized effective-liquid approximation of Lutsko and Baus [Phys. Rev. Lett. 64, 761 (1990)], while giving excellent results for the freezing of hard spheres, fail completely to predict freezing into either fcc or bcc solid phases for soft inverse-power potentials. We also give an alternate derivation of the MWDA that makes clearer its connection to earlier theories.

Numerical Simulation of Cylindrical, Self-field MPD Thrusters with Multiple Propellants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lapointe, Michael R.

1994-01-01

A two-dimensional, two-temperature, single fluid MHD code was used to predict the performance of cylindrical, self-field magnetoplasmadynamic (MPD) thrusters operated with argon, lithium, and hydrogen propellants. A thruster stability equation was determined relating maximum stable J(sup 2)/m values to cylindrical thruster geometry and propellant species. The maximum value of J(sup 2)/m was found to scale as the inverse of the propellant molecular weight to the 0.57 power, in rough agreement with limited experimental data which scales as the inverse square root of the propellant molecular weight. A general equation which relates total thrust to electromagnetic thrust, propellant molecular weight, and J(sup 2)/m was determined using reported thrust values for argon and hydrogen and calculated thrust values for lithium. In addition to argon, lithium, and hydrogen, the equation accurately predicted thrust for ammonia at sufficiently high J(sup 2)/m values. A simple algorithm is suggested to aid in the preliminary design of cylindrical, self-field MPD thrusters. A brief example is presented to illustrate the use of the algorithm in the design of a low power MPD thruster.

Observational Signatures of Black Holes: Spectral and Temporal Features of XTE J1550-564

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Titarchuk, Lev; Shrader, C. R.; White, Nicholas E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The theoretical predictions of the converging inflow, or Bulk-Motion Comptonization model are discussed and some predictions are compared to X- and gamma-ray observations of the high-soft state of Galactic black hole candidate XTE J1550+564. The approx. 10(exp 2)-Hz QPO phenomenon tends to be detected in the high-state at times when the bolometric luminosity surges and the hard-powerlaw spectral component is dominant. Furthermore, the power in these features increases with energy. We offer interpretation of this phenomenon, as oscillations of the innermost part of the accretion disk, which in turn supplies the seed photons for the converging inflow where the hard power-law is formed through Bulk Motion Comptonization (BMC). We further argue that the noted lack of coherence between intensity variations of the high-soft-state low and high energy bands is a natural consequence of our model, and that a natural explanation for the observed hard and soft lag phenomenon is offered. In addition, we address some criticisms of the BMC model supporting our claims with observational results.

Artificial neural network optimization of Althaea rosea seeds polysaccharides and its antioxidant activity.

PubMed

Liu, Feng; Liu, Wenhui; Tian, Shuge

2014-09-01

A combination of an orthogonal L16(4)4 test design and a three-layer artificial neural network (ANN) model was applied to optimize polysaccharides from Althaea rosea seeds extracted by hot water method. The highest optimal experimental yield of A. rosea seed polysaccharides (ARSPs) of 59.85 mg/g was obtained using three extraction numbers, 113 min extraction time, 60.0% ethanol concentration, and 1:41 solid-liquid ratio. Under these optimized conditions, the ARSP experimental yield was very close to the predicted yield of 60.07 mg/g and was higher than the orthogonal test results (40.86 mg/g). Structural characterizations were conducted using physicochemical property and FTIR analysis. In addition, the study of ARSP antioxidant activity demonstrated that polysaccharides exhibited high superoxide dismutase activity, strong reducing power, and positive scavenging activity on superoxide anion, hydroxyl radical, 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl, and reducing power. Our results indicated that ANNs were efficient quantitative tools for predicting the total ARSP content. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effective scalar field theory and reduction of couplings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atance, Mario; Cortés, José Luis

1997-09-01

A general discussion of the renormalization of the quantum theory of a scalar field as an effective field theory is presented. The renormalization group equations in a mass-independent renormalization scheme allow us to identify the possibility to go beyond the renormalizable φ4 theory without losing its predictive power. It is shown that there is a minimal extension with just one additional free parameter (the mass scale of the effective theory expansion) and some of its properties are discussed.

Analysis of Particulate Composite Behavior Based on Nonlinear Elasticity and an Improved Mori-Tanaka Theory

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-09-01

to characterize the weakening constraint power of the matrix as opposed to earlier analyses that used an additional eigenstrain term. It also...matrix Poisson ratio was constant and the inclusions were rigid, he showed that the disturbed strain and the eigenstrain in the Eshelby method could...Eshelby, elastic properties, prediction, energy balance, mechanical behavior, eigenstrain , nonlinear dcd03e So7S&3 UNCLASSIFIED SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF FORM (Highest classification of Title, Abstract, Keywords)

The effects of load on system and lower-body joint kinetics during jump squats.

PubMed

Moir, Gavin L; Gollie, Jared M; Davis, Shala E; Guers, John J; Witmer, Chad A

2012-11-01

To investigate the effects of different loads on system and lower-body kinetics during jump squats, 12 resistance-trained men performed jumps under different loading conditions: 0%, 12%, 27%, 42%, 56%, 71%, and 85% of 1-repetition maximum (1-RM). System power output was calculated as the product of the vertical component of the ground reaction force and the vertical velocity of the bar during its ascent. Joint power output was calculated during bar ascent for the hip, knee, and ankle joints, and was also summed across the joints. System power output and joint power at knee and ankle joints were maximized at 0% 1-RM (p < 0.001) and followed the linear trends (p < 0.001) caused by power output decreasing as the load increased. Power output at the hip was maximized at 42% 1-RM (p = 0.016) and followed a quadratic trend (p = 0.030). Summed joint power could be predicted from system power (p < 0.05), while system power could predict power at the knee and ankle joints under some of the loading conditions. Power at the hip could not be predicted from system power. System power during loaded jumps reflects the power at the knee and ankle, while power at the hip does not correspond to system power.

Past, present and prospect of an Artificial Intelligence (AI) based model for sediment transport prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afan, Haitham Abdulmohsin; El-shafie, Ahmed; Mohtar, Wan Hanna Melini Wan; Yaseen, Zaher Mundher

2016-10-01

An accurate model for sediment prediction is a priority for all hydrological researchers. Many conventional methods have shown an inability to achieve an accurate prediction of suspended sediment. These methods are unable to understand the behaviour of sediment transport in rivers due to the complexity, noise, non-stationarity, and dynamism of the sediment pattern. In the past two decades, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and computational approaches have become a remarkable tool for developing an accurate model. These approaches are considered a powerful tool for solving any non-linear model, as they can deal easily with a large number of data and sophisticated models. This paper is a review of all AI approaches that have been applied in sediment modelling. The current research focuses on the development of AI application in sediment transport. In addition, the review identifies major challenges and opportunities for prospective research. Throughout the literature, complementary models superior to classical modelling.

Predicting Chemically Induced Duodenal Ulcer and Adrenal Necrosis with Classification Trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giampaolo, Casimiro; Gray, Andrew T.; Olshen, Richard A.; Szabo, Sandor

1991-07-01

Binary tree-structured statistical classification algorithms and properties of 56 model alkyl nucleophiles were brought to bear on two problems of experimental pharmacology and toxicology. Each rat of a learning sample of 745 was administered one compound and autopsied to determine the presence of duodenal ulcer or adrenal hemorrhagic necrosis. The cited statistical classification schemes were then applied to these outcomes and 67 features of the compounds to ascertain those characteristics that are associated with biologic activity. For predicting duodenal ulceration, dipole moment, melting point, and solubility in octanol are particularly important, while for predicting adrenal necrosis, important features include the number of sulfhydryl groups and double bonds. These methods may constitute inexpensive but powerful ways to screen untested compounds for possible organ-specific toxicity. Mechanisms for the etiology and pathogenesis of the duodenal and adrenal lesions are suggested, as are additional avenues for drug design.

Working memory capacity as controlled attention in tactical decision making.

PubMed

Furley, Philip A; Memmert, Daniel

2012-06-01

The controlled attention theory of working memory capacity (WMC, Engle 2002) suggests that WMC represents a domain free limitation in the ability to control attention and is predictive of an individual's capability of staying focused, avoiding distraction and impulsive errors. In the present paper we test the predictive power of WMC in computer-based sport decision-making tasks. Experiment 1 demonstrated that high-WMC athletes were better able at focusing their attention on tactical decision making while blocking out irrelevant auditory distraction. Experiment 2 showed that high-WMC athletes were more successful at adapting their tactical decision making according to the situation instead of relying on prepotent inappropriate decisions. The present results provide additional but also unique support for the controlled attention theory of WMC by demonstrating that WMC is predictive of controlling attention in complex settings among different modalities and highlight the importance of working memory in tactical decision making.

Ultra-fast consensus of discrete-time multi-agent systems with multi-step predictive output feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wenle; Liu, Jianchang

2016-04-01

This article addresses the ultra-fast consensus problem of high-order discrete-time multi-agent systems based on a unified consensus framework. A novel multi-step predictive output mechanism is proposed under a directed communication topology containing a spanning tree. By predicting the outputs of a network several steps ahead and adding this information into the consensus protocol, it is shown that the asymptotic convergence factor is improved by a power of q + 1 compared to the routine consensus. The difficult problem of selecting the optimal control gain is solved well by introducing a variable called convergence step. In addition, the ultra-fast formation achievement is studied on the basis of this new consensus protocol. Finally, the ultra-fast consensus with respect to a reference model and robust consensus is discussed. Some simulations are performed to illustrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results.

Predicting phonetic transcription agreement: Insights from research in infant vocalizations

PubMed Central

RAMSDELL, HEATHER L.; OLLER, D. KIMBROUGH; ETHINGTON, CORINNA A.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study is to provide new perspectives on correlates of phonetic transcription agreement. Our research focuses on phonetic transcription and coding of infant vocalizations. The findings are presumed to be broadly applicable to other difficult cases of transcription, such as found in severe disorders of speech, which similarly result in low reliability for a variety of reasons. We evaluated the predictiveness of two factors not previously documented in the literature as influencing transcription agreement: canonicity and coder confidence. Transcribers coded samples of infant vocalizations, judging both canonicity and confidence. Correlation results showed that canonicity and confidence were strongly related to agreement levels, and regression results showed that canonicity and confidence both contributed significantly to explanation of variance. Specifically, the results suggest that canonicity plays a major role in transcription agreement when utterances involve supraglottal articulation, with coder confidence offering additional power in predicting transcription agreement. PMID:17882695

Fast, scalable prediction of deleterious noncoding variants from functional and population genomic data.

PubMed

Huang, Yi-Fei; Gulko, Brad; Siepel, Adam

2017-04-01

Many genetic variants that influence phenotypes of interest are located outside of protein-coding genes, yet existing methods for identifying such variants have poor predictive power. Here we introduce a new computational method, called LINSIGHT, that substantially improves the prediction of noncoding nucleotide sites at which mutations are likely to have deleterious fitness consequences, and which, therefore, are likely to be phenotypically important. LINSIGHT combines a generalized linear model for functional genomic data with a probabilistic model of molecular evolution. The method is fast and highly scalable, enabling it to exploit the 'big data' available in modern genomics. We show that LINSIGHT outperforms the best available methods in identifying human noncoding variants associated with inherited diseases. In addition, we apply LINSIGHT to an atlas of human enhancers and show that the fitness consequences at enhancers depend on cell type, tissue specificity, and constraints at associated promoters.

Wind farms production: Control and prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Fouly, Tarek Hussein Mostafa

Wind energy resources, unlike dispatchable central station generation, produce power dependable on external irregular source and that is the incident wind speed which does not always blow when electricity is needed. This results in the variability, unpredictability, and uncertainty of wind resources. Therefore, the integration of wind facilities to utility electrical grid presents a major challenge to power system operator. Such integration has significant impact on the optimum power flow, transmission congestion, power quality issues, system stability, load dispatch, and economic analysis. Due to the irregular nature of wind power production, accurate prediction represents the major challenge to power system operators. Therefore, in this thesis two novel models are proposed for wind speed and wind power prediction. One proposed model is dedicated to short-term prediction (one-hour ahead) and the other involves medium term prediction (one-day ahead). The accuracy of the proposed models is revealed by comparing their results with the corresponding values of a reference prediction model referred to as the persistent model. Utility grid operation is not only impacted by the uncertainty of the future production of wind farms, but also by the variability of their current production and how the active and reactive power exchange with the grid is controlled. To address this particular task, a control technique for wind turbines, driven by doubly-fed induction generators (DFIGs), is developed to regulate the terminal voltage by equally sharing the generated/absorbed reactive power between the rotor-side and the gridside converters. To highlight the impact of the new developed technique in reducing the power loss in the generator set, an economic analysis is carried out. Moreover, a new aggregated model for wind farms is proposed that accounts for the irregularity of the incident wind distribution throughout the farm layout. Specifically, this model includes the wake effect and the time delay of the incident wind speed of the different turbines on the farm, and to simulate the fluctuation in the generated power more accurately and more closer to real-time operation. Recently, wind farms with considerable output power ratings have been installed. Their integrating into the utility grid will substantially affect the electricity markets. This thesis investigates the possible impact of wind power variability, wind farm control strategy, wind energy penetration level, wind farm location, and wind power prediction accuracy on the total generation costs and close to real time electricity market prices. These issues are addressed by developing a single auction market model for determining the real-time electricity market prices.

Predicting β-Turns in Protein Using Kernel Logistic Regression

PubMed Central

Elbashir, Murtada Khalafallah; Sheng, Yu; Wang, Jianxin; Wu, FangXiang; Li, Min

2013-01-01

A β-turn is a secondary protein structure type that plays a significant role in protein configuration and function. On average 25% of amino acids in protein structures are located in β-turns. It is very important to develope an accurate and efficient method for β-turns prediction. Most of the current successful β-turns prediction methods use support vector machines (SVMs) or neural networks (NNs). The kernel logistic regression (KLR) is a powerful classification technique that has been applied successfully in many classification problems. However, it is often not found in β-turns classification, mainly because it is computationally expensive. In this paper, we used KLR to obtain sparse β-turns prediction in short evolution time. Secondary structure information and position-specific scoring matrices (PSSMs) are utilized as input features. We achieved Q total of 80.7% and MCC of 50% on BT426 dataset. These results show that KLR method with the right algorithm can yield performance equivalent to or even better than NNs and SVMs in β-turns prediction. In addition, KLR yields probabilistic outcome and has a well-defined extension to multiclass case. PMID:23509793

Predicting β-turns in protein using kernel logistic regression.

PubMed

Elbashir, Murtada Khalafallah; Sheng, Yu; Wang, Jianxin; Wu, Fangxiang; Li, Min

2013-01-01

A β-turn is a secondary protein structure type that plays a significant role in protein configuration and function. On average 25% of amino acids in protein structures are located in β-turns. It is very important to develope an accurate and efficient method for β-turns prediction. Most of the current successful β-turns prediction methods use support vector machines (SVMs) or neural networks (NNs). The kernel logistic regression (KLR) is a powerful classification technique that has been applied successfully in many classification problems. However, it is often not found in β-turns classification, mainly because it is computationally expensive. In this paper, we used KLR to obtain sparse β-turns prediction in short evolution time. Secondary structure information and position-specific scoring matrices (PSSMs) are utilized as input features. We achieved Q total of 80.7% and MCC of 50% on BT426 dataset. These results show that KLR method with the right algorithm can yield performance equivalent to or even better than NNs and SVMs in β-turns prediction. In addition, KLR yields probabilistic outcome and has a well-defined extension to multiclass case.

Innovative second-generation wavelets construction with recurrent neural networks for solar radiation forecasting.

PubMed

Capizzi, Giacomo; Napoli, Christian; Bonanno, Francesco

2012-11-01

Solar radiation prediction is an important challenge for the electrical engineer because it is used to estimate the power developed by commercial photovoltaic modules. This paper deals with the problem of solar radiation prediction based on observed meteorological data. A 2-day forecast is obtained by using novel wavelet recurrent neural networks (WRNNs). In fact, these WRNNS are used to exploit the correlation between solar radiation and timescale-related variations of wind speed, humidity, and temperature. The input to the selected WRNN is provided by timescale-related bands of wavelet coefficients obtained from meteorological time series. The experimental setup available at the University of Catania, Italy, provided this information. The novelty of this approach is that the proposed WRNN performs the prediction in the wavelet domain and, in addition, also performs the inverse wavelet transform, giving the predicted signal as output. The obtained simulation results show a very low root-mean-square error compared to the results of the solar radiation prediction approaches obtained by hybrid neural networks reported in the recent literature.

Recurrent Neural Network Applications for Astronomical Time Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Protopapas, Pavlos

2017-06-01

The benefits of good predictive models in astronomy lie in early event prediction systems and effective resource allocation. Current time series methods applicable to regular time series have not evolved to generalize for irregular time series. In this talk, I will describe two Recurrent Neural Network methods, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Echo State Networks (ESNs) for predicting irregular time series. Feature engineering along with a non-linear modeling proved to be an effective predictor. For noisy time series, the prediction is improved by training the network on error realizations using the error estimates from astronomical light curves. In addition to this, we propose a new neural network architecture to remove correlation from the residuals in order to improve prediction and compensate for the noisy data. Finally, I show how to set hyperparameters for a stable and performant solution correctly. In this work, we circumvent this obstacle by optimizing ESN hyperparameters using Bayesian optimization with Gaussian Process priors. This automates the tuning procedure, enabling users to employ the power of RNN without needing an in-depth understanding of the tuning procedure.

Replacement of SSE (Release 6) with NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) Project GIS-enabled Web Data Portal:

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-03-15

... effort has been developed under the Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) Project funded largely by NASA Earth Applied Sciences ... to NASA's satellite and modeling analysis for Renewable Energy, Sustainable Buildings and Agroclimatology applications.  A new POWER ...

POWER/SSE

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-06-15

... The Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project was initiated to improve upon the current SSE ... continue to be focussed on the solar and wind Renewable Energy industry. New data sets will target Sustainable Buildings ... The Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project was initiated to improve upon the current SSE ...

Computationally Driven Two-Dimensional Materials Design: What Is Next?

DOE PAGES

Pan, Jie; Lany, Stephan; Qi, Yue

2017-07-17

Two-dimensional (2D) materials offer many key advantages to innovative applications, such as spintronics and quantum information processing. Theoretical computations have accelerated 2D materials design. In this issue of ACS Nano, Kumar et al. report that ferromagnetism can be achieved in functionalized nitride MXene based on first-principles calculations. Their computational results shed light on a potentially vast group of materials for the realization of 2D magnets. In this Perspective, we briefly summarize the promising properties of 2D materials and the role theory has played in predicting these properties. Additionally, we discuss challenges and opportunities to boost the power of computation formore » the prediction of the 'structure-property-process (synthesizability)' relationship of 2D materials.« less

Next-generation prognostic assessment for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

PubMed Central

Staton, Ashley D; Kof, Jean L; Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Flowers, Christopher R

2015-01-01

Current standard of care therapy for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) cures a majority of patients with additional benefit in salvage therapy and autologous stem cell transplant for patients who relapse. The next generation of prognostic models for DLBCL aims to more accurately stratify patients for novel therapies and risk-adapted treatment strategies. This review discusses the significance of host genetic and tumor genomic alterations seen in DLBCL, clinical and epidemiologic factors, and how each can be integrated into risk stratification algorithms. In the future, treatment prediction and prognostic model development and subsequent validation will require data from a large number of DLBCL patients to establish sufficient statistical power to correctly predict outcome. Novel modeling approaches can augment these efforts. PMID:26289217

Next-generation prognostic assessment for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

PubMed

Staton, Ashley D; Koff, Jean L; Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Flowers, Christopher R

2015-01-01

Current standard of care therapy for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) cures a majority of patients with additional benefit in salvage therapy and autologous stem cell transplant for patients who relapse. The next generation of prognostic models for DLBCL aims to more accurately stratify patients for novel therapies and risk-adapted treatment strategies. This review discusses the significance of host genetic and tumor genomic alterations seen in DLBCL, clinical and epidemiologic factors, and how each can be integrated into risk stratification algorithms. In the future, treatment prediction and prognostic model development and subsequent validation will require data from a large number of DLBCL patients to establish sufficient statistical power to correctly predict outcome. Novel modeling approaches can augment these efforts.

Universal Critical Dynamics in High Resolution Neuronal Avalanche Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedman, Nir; Ito, Shinya; Brinkman, Braden A. W.; Shimono, Masanori; DeVille, R. E. Lee; Dahmen, Karin A.; Beggs, John M.; Butler, Thomas C.

2012-05-01

The tasks of neural computation are remarkably diverse. To function optimally, neuronal networks have been hypothesized to operate near a nonequilibrium critical point. However, experimental evidence for critical dynamics has been inconclusive. Here, we show that the dynamics of cultured cortical networks are critical. We analyze neuronal network data collected at the individual neuron level using the framework of nonequilibrium phase transitions. Among the most striking predictions confirmed is that the mean temporal profiles of avalanches of widely varying durations are quantitatively described by a single universal scaling function. We also show that the data have three additional features predicted by critical phenomena: approximate power law distributions of avalanche sizes and durations, samples in subcritical and supercritical phases, and scaling laws between anomalous exponents.

Suitability of the HAM-Nat test and TMS module "basic medical-scientific understanding" for medical school selection

PubMed Central

Hissbach, Johanna; Feddersen, Lena; Sehner, Susanne; Hampe, Wolfgang

2012-01-01

Aims: Tests with natural-scientific content are predictive of the success in the first semesters of medical studies. Some universities in the German speaking countries use the ‘Test for medical studies’ (TMS) for student selection. One of its test modules, namely “medical and scientific comprehension”, measures the ability for deductive reasoning. In contrast, the Hamburg Assessment Test for Medicine, Natural Sciences (HAM-Nat) evaluates knowledge in natural sciences. In this study the predictive power of the HAM-Nat test will be compared to that of the NatDenk test, which is similar to the TMS module “medical and scientific comprehension” in content and structure. Methods: 162 medical school beginners volunteered to complete either the HAM-Nat (N=77) or the NatDenk test (N=85) in 2007. Until spring 2011, 84.2% of these successfully completed the first part of the medical state examination in Hamburg. Via different logistic regression models we tested the predictive power of high school grade point average (GPA or “Abiturnote”) and the test results (HAM-Nat and NatDenk) with regard to the study success criterion “first part of the medical state examination passed successfully up to the end of the 7th semester” (Success7Sem). The Odds Ratios (OR) for study success are reported. Results: For both test groups a significant correlation existed between test results and study success (HAM-Nat: OR=2.07; NatDenk: OR=2.58). If both admission criteria are estimated in one model, the main effects (GPA: OR=2.45; test: OR=2.32) and their interaction effect (OR=1.80) are significant in the HAM-Nat test group, whereas in the NatDenk test group only the test result (OR=2.21) significantly contributes to the variance explained. Conclusions: On their own both HAM-Nat and NatDenk have predictive power for study success, but only the HAM-Nat explains additional variance if combined with GPA. The selection according to HAM-Nat and GPA has under the current circumstances of medical school selection (many good applicants and only a limited number of available spaces) the highest predictive power of all models. PMID:23255967

Intelligent Prediction of Fan Rotation Stall in Power Plants Based on Pressure Sensor Data Measured In-Situ

PubMed Central

Xu, Xiaogang; Wang, Songling; Liu, Jinlian; Liu, Xinyu

2014-01-01

Blower and exhaust fans consume over 30% of electricity in a thermal power plant, and faults of these fans due to rotation stalls are one of the most frequent reasons for power plant outage failures. To accurately predict the occurrence of fan rotation stalls, we propose a support vector regression machine (SVRM) model that predicts the fan internal pressures during operation, leaving ample time for rotation stall detection. We train the SVRM model using experimental data samples, and perform pressure data prediction using the trained SVRM model. To prove the feasibility of using the SVRM model for rotation stall prediction, we further process the predicted pressure data via wavelet-transform-based stall detection. By comparison of the detection results from the predicted and measured pressure data, we demonstrate that the SVRM model can accurately predict the fan pressure and guarantee reliable stall detection with a time advance of up to 0.0625 s. This superior pressure data prediction capability leaves significant time for effective control and prevention of fan rotation stall faults. This model has great potential for use in intelligent fan systems with stall prevention capability, which will ensure safe operation and improve the energy efficiency of power plants. PMID:24854057

Effect of the equivalent refractive index on intraocular lens power prediction with ray tracing after myopic laser in situ keratomileusis.

PubMed

Canovas, Carmen; van der Mooren, Marrie; Rosén, Robert; Piers, Patricia A; Wang, Li; Koch, Douglas D; Artal, Pablo

2015-05-01

To determine the impact of the equivalent refractive index (ERI) on intraocular lens (IOL) power prediction for eyes with previous myopic laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) using custom ray tracing. AMO B.V., Groningen, the Netherlands, and the Department of Ophthalmology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA. Retrospective data analysis. The ERI was calculated individually from the post-LASIK total corneal power. Two methods to account for the posterior corneal surface were tested; that is, calculation from pre-LASIK data or from post-LASIK data only. Four IOL power predictions were generated using a computer-based ray-tracing technique, including individual ERI results from both calculation methods, a mean ERI over the whole population, and the ERI for normal patients. For each patient, IOL power results calculated from the four predictions as well as those obtained with the Haigis-L were compared with the optimum IOL power calculated after cataract surgery. The study evaluated 25 patients. The mean and range of ERI values determined using post-LASIK data were similar to those determined from pre-LASIK data. Introducing individual or an average ERI in the ray-tracing IOL power calculation procedure resulted in mean IOL power errors that were not significantly different from zero. The ray-tracing procedure that includes an average ERI gave a greater percentage of eyes with an IOL power prediction error within ±0.5 diopter than the Haigis-L (84% versus 52%). For IOL power determination in post-LASIK patients, custom ray tracing including a modified ERI was an accurate procedure that exceeded the current standards for normal eyes. Copyright © 2015 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Battery energy-storage systems — an emerging market for lead/acid batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cole, J. F.

Although the concept of using batteries for lead levelling and peak shaving has been known for decades, only recently have these systems become commercially viable. Changes in the structure of the electric power supply industry have required these companies to seek more cost-effective ways of meeting the needs of their customers. Through experience gained, primarily in the USA, batteries have been shown to provide multiple benefits to electric utilities. Also, lower maintenance batteries, more reliable electrical systems, and the availability of methods to predict costs and benefits have made battery energy-storage systems more attractive. Technology-transfer efforts in the USA have resulted in a willingness of electric utilities to install a number of these systems for a variety of tasks, including load levelling, peak shaving, frequency regulation and spinning reserve. Additional systems are being planned for several additional locations for similar applications, plus transmission and distribution deferral and enhanced power quality. In the absence of US champions such as the US Department of Energy and the Electric Power Research Institute, ILZRO is attempting to mount a technology-transfer programme to bring the benefits of battery energy-storage to European power suppliers. As a result of these efforts, a study group on battery energy-storage systems has been established with membership primarily in Germany and Austria. Also, a two-day workshop, prepared by the Electric Power Research Institute was held in Dublin. Participants included representatives of several European power suppliers. As a result, ESB National Grid of Ireland has embarked upon a detailed analysis of the costs and benefits of a battery energy-storage system in their network. Plans for the future include continuation of this technology-transfer effort, assistance in the Irish effort, and a possible approach to the European Commission for funding.

AA9int: SNP Interaction Pattern Search Using Non-Hierarchical Additive Model Set.

PubMed

Lin, Hui-Yi; Huang, Po-Yu; Chen, Dung-Tsa; Tung, Heng-Yuan; Sellers, Thomas A; Pow-Sang, Julio; Eeles, Rosalind; Easton, Doug; Kote-Jarai, Zsofia; Amin Al Olama, Ali; Benlloch, Sara; Muir, Kenneth; Giles, Graham G; Wiklund, Fredrik; Gronberg, Henrik; Haiman, Christopher A; Schleutker, Johanna; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Travis, Ruth C; Hamdy, Freddie; Neal, David E; Pashayan, Nora; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Stanford, Janet L; Blot, William J; Thibodeau, Stephen N; Maier, Christiane; Kibel, Adam S; Cybulski, Cezary; Cannon-Albright, Lisa; Brenner, Hermann; Kaneva, Radka; Batra, Jyotsna; Teixeira, Manuel R; Pandha, Hardev; Lu, Yong-Jie; Park, Jong Y

2018-06-07

The use of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) interactions to predict complex diseases is getting more attention during the past decade, but related statistical methods are still immature. We previously proposed the SNP Interaction Pattern Identifier (SIPI) approach to evaluate 45 SNP interaction patterns/patterns. SIPI is statistically powerful but suffers from a large computation burden. For large-scale studies, it is necessary to use a powerful and computation-efficient method. The objective of this study is to develop an evidence-based mini-version of SIPI as the screening tool or solitary use and to evaluate the impact of inheritance mode and model structure on detecting SNP-SNP interactions. We tested two candidate approaches: the 'Five-Full' and 'AA9int' method. The Five-Full approach is composed of the five full interaction models considering three inheritance modes (additive, dominant and recessive). The AA9int approach is composed of nine interaction models by considering non-hierarchical model structure and the additive mode. Our simulation results show that AA9int has similar statistical power compared to SIPI and is superior to the Five-Full approach, and the impact of the non-hierarchical model structure is greater than that of the inheritance mode in detecting SNP-SNP interactions. In summary, it is recommended that AA9int is a powerful tool to be used either alone or as the screening stage of a two-stage approach (AA9int+SIPI) for detecting SNP-SNP interactions in large-scale studies. The 'AA9int' and 'parAA9int' functions (standard and parallel computing version) are added in the SIPI R package, which is freely available at https://linhuiyi.github.io/LinHY_Software/. hlin1@lsuhsc.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Forecasting Electric Power Generation of Photovoltaic Power System for Energy Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kudo, Mitsuru; Takeuchi, Akira; Nozaki, Yousuke; Endo, Hisahito; Sumita, Jiro

Recently, there has been an increase in concern about the global environment. Interest is growing in developing an energy network by which new energy systems such as photovoltaic and fuel cells generate power locally and electric power and heat are controlled with a communications network. We developed the power generation forecast method for photovoltaic power systems in an energy network. The method makes use of weather information and regression analysis. We carried out forecasting power output of the photovoltaic power system installed in Expo 2005, Aichi Japan. As a result of comparing measurements with a prediction values, the average prediction error per day was about 26% of the measured power.

The impact of three recent coal-fired power plant closings on Pittsburgh air quality: A natural experiment.

PubMed

Russell, Marie C; Belle, Jessica H; Liu, Yang

2017-01-01

Relative to the rest of the United States, the region of southwestern Pennsylvania, including metropolitan Pittsburgh, experiences high ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), which is known to be associated with adverse respiratory and cardiovascular health impacts. This study evaluates whether the closing of three coal-fired power plants within the southwestern Pennsylvania region resulted in a significant decrease in PM 2.5 concentration. Both PM 2.5 data obtained from EPA ground stations in the study region and aerosol optical depth (AOD) data retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites were used to investigate regional air quality from January 2011 through December 2014. The impact of the plant closings on PM 2.5 concentration and AOD was evaluated using a series of generalized additive models. The model results show that monthly fuel consumption of the Elrama plant, which closed in October of 2012, and monthly fuel consumption of both the Mitchell and Hatfield's Ferry plants, which closed in October of 2013, were significant predictors of both PM 2.5 concentration and AOD at EPA ground stations in the study region, after controlling for multiple meteorological factors and long-term, region-wide air quality improvements. The model's power to predict PM 2.5 concentration increased from an adjusted R 2 of 0.61 to 0.68 after excluding data from ground stations with higher uncertainty due to recent increases in unconventional natural gas extraction activities. After preliminary analyses of mean PM 2.5 concentration and AOD showed a downward trend following each power plant shutdown, results from a series of generalized additive models confirmed that the activity of the three plants that closed, measured by monthly fuel consumption, was highly significant in predicting both AOD and PM 2.5 at 12 EPA ground stations; further research on PM 2.5 emissions from unconventional natural gas extraction is needed. With many coal-fired power plants scheduled to close across the United States in the coming years, there is interest in the potential impact on regional PM 2.5 concentrations. In southwestern Pennsylvania, recent coal-fired power plant closings were coupled with a boom in unconventional natural gas extraction. Natural gas is currently seen as an economically viable bridge fuel between coal and renewable energy. This study provides policymakers with more information on the potential ambient concentration changes associated with coal-fired power plant closings as the nation's energy reliance shifts toward natural gas.

High Efficiency Thermoelectric Radioisotope Power Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

El-Genk, Mohamed; Saber, Hamed; Caillat, Thierry

2004-01-01

The work performed and whose results presented in this report is a joint effort between the University of New Mexico s Institute for Space and Nuclear Power Studies (ISNPS) and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), California Institute of Technology. In addition to the development, design, and fabrication of skutterudites and skutterudites-based segmented unicouples this effort included conducting performance tests of these unicouples for hundreds of hours to verify theoretical predictions of the conversion efficiency. The performance predictions of these unicouples are obtained using 1-D and 3-D models developed for that purpose and for estimating the actual performance and side heat losses in the tests conducted at ISNPS. In addition to the performance tests, the development of the 1-D and 3-D models and the development of Advanced Radioisotope Power systems for Beginning-Of-Life (BOM) power of 108 We are carried out at ISNPS. The materials synthesis and fabrication of the unicouples are carried out at JPL. The research conducted at ISNPS is documented in chapters 2-5 and that conducted at JP, in documented in chapter 5. An important consideration in the design and optimization of segmented thermoelectric unicouples (STUs) is determining the relative lengths, cross-section areas, and the interfacial temperatures of the segments of the different materials in the n- and p-legs. These variables are determined using a genetic algorithm (GA) in conjunction with one-dimensional analytical model of STUs that is developed in chapter 2. Results indicated that when optimized for maximum conversion efficiency, the interfacial temperatures between various segments in a STU are close to those at the intersections of the Figure-Of-Merit (FOM), ZT, curves of the thermoelectric materials of the adjacent segments. When optimizing the STUs for maximum electrical power density, however, the interfacial temperatures are different from those at the intersections of the ZT curves, but close to those at the intersections the characteristic power, CP, curves of the thermoelectric materials of the adjacent segments (CP = T(sup 2)Zk and has a unit of W/m). Results also showed that the number of the segments in the n- and p-legs of the STUs optimized for maximum power density are generally fewer than when the same unicouples are optimized for maximum efficiency. These results are obtained using the 1-D optimization model of STUs that is detailed in chapter 2. A three-dimensional model of STUs is developed and incorporated into the ANSYS commercial software (chapter 3). The governing equations are solved, subject to the prescribed

The DS1 Mission and the Validation of the SCARLET Advanced Array

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stella, Paul M.; Nieraeth, Donald G.; Murphy, David M.; Eskenazi, Michael I.

2000-01-01

On October 24, 1998, the first of the NASA New Millenium Spacecraft, DS1, was successfully launched into Space. The objectives for this spacecraft are to test advanced technologies that can reduce the cost or risk of future missions. One of these technologies is the SCARLET concentrating solar array. Although part of the advanced technology validation study, the array is also the spacecraft's power source. Funded by BMDO, the SCARLET concentrator solar array is the first application of a refractive lens concentrator designed for space applications. As part of the DS1 validation process, the amount of diagnostics data that will be acquired is more extensive than would be the norm for a more conventional solar array. These data include temperature measurements at numerous locations on the 2-wing, 4-panel per wing, solar array. For each panel, one 5-cell module in one of the circuit strings is wired so that a complete I-V curve can be obtained. This data is used to verify sun pointing accuracy and array output performance. In addition, the spacecraft power load can be varied in a number of discrete steps from a small fraction of the array total power capability, up to maximum power. For each of the power loads, array operating voltage can be measured along with the current output from each wing. Preliminary in-space measurements suggest SCARLET performance is within one (1) percent of predictions made from ground data. This paper will briefly discuss the SCARLET configuration and critical features. Emphasis will be given to the results of the in-space validation, including array performance as a function of changing solar distance and array performance compared to pre-launch predictions.

Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) First Year Observations: TE Polarization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kogut, A.; Spergel, D. N.; Barnes, C.; Bennett, C. L.; Halpern, M.; Hinshaw, G.; Jarosik, N.; Limon, M.; Meyer, S. S.; Page, L.;

Singular ferromagnetic susceptibility of the transverse-field Ising antiferromagnet on the triangular lattice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biswas, Sounak; Damle, Kedar

2018-02-01

A transverse magnetic field Γ is known to induce antiferromagnetic three-sublattice order of the Ising spins σz in the triangular lattice Ising antiferromagnet at low enough temperature. This low-temperature order is known to melt on heating in a two-step manner, with a power-law ordered intermediate temperature phase characterized by power-law correlations at the three-sublattice wave vector Q : <σz(R ⃗) σz(0 ) > ˜cos(Q .R ⃗) /|R⃗| η (T ) with the temperature-dependent power-law exponent η (T )∈(1 /9 ,1 /4 ) . Here, we use a quantum cluster algorithm to study the ferromagnetic easy-axis susceptibility χu(L ) of an L ×L sample in this power-law ordered phase. Our numerical results are consistent with a recent prediction of a singular L dependence χu(L ) ˜L2 -9 η when η (T ) is in the range (1 /9 ,2 /9 ) . This finite-size result implies, via standard scaling arguments, that the ferromagnetic susceptibility χu(B ) to a uniform field B along the easy axis is singular at intermediate temperatures in the small B limit, χu(B ) ˜|B| -4/-18 η 4 -9 η for η (T )∈(1 /9 ,2 /9 ) , although there is no ferromagnetic long-range order in the low temperature state. Additionally we establish similar two-step melting behavior (via a study of the order parameter susceptibility χQ) in the case of the ferrimagnetic three-sublattice ordered phase which is stabilized by ferromagnetic next-neighbor couplings (J2) and confirm that the ferromagnetic susceptibility obeys the predicted singular form in the associated power-law ordered phase.

Using Reanalysis Data for the Prediction of Seasonal Wind Turbine Power Losses Due to Icing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burtch, D.; Mullendore, G. L.; Delene, D. J.; Storm, B.

2013-12-01

The Northern Plains region of the United States is home to a significant amount of potential wind energy. However, in winter months capturing this potential power is severely impacted by the meteorological conditions, in the form of icing. Predicting the expected loss in power production due to icing is a valuable parameter that can be used in wind turbine operations, determination of wind turbine site locations and long-term energy estimates which are used for financing purposes. Currently, losses due to icing must be estimated when developing predictions for turbine feasibility and financing studies, while icing maps, a tool commonly used in Europe, are lacking in the United States. This study uses the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) dataset in conjunction with turbine production data to investigate various methods of predicting seasonal losses (October-March) due to icing at two wind turbine sites located 121 km apart in North Dakota. The prediction of icing losses is based on temperature and relative humidity thresholds and is accomplished using three methods. For each of the three methods, the required atmospheric variables are determined in one of two ways: using industry-specific software to correlate anemometer data in conjunction with the MERRA dataset and using only the MERRA dataset for all variables. For each season, a percentage of the total expected generated power lost due to icing is determined and compared to observed losses from the production data. An optimization is performed in order to determine the relative humidity threshold that minimizes the difference between the predicted and observed values. Eight seasons of data are used to determine an optimal relative humidity threshold, and a further three seasons of data are used to test this threshold. Preliminary results have shown that the optimized relative humidity threshold for the northern turbine is higher than the southern turbine for all methods. For the three test seasons, the optimized thresholds tend to under-predict the icing losses. However, the threshold determined using boundary layer similarity theory most closely predicts the power losses due to icing versus the other methods. For the northern turbine, the average predicted power loss over the three seasons is 4.65 % while the observed power loss is 6.22 % (average difference of 1.57 %). For the southern turbine, the average predicted power loss and observed power loss over the same time period are 4.43 % and 6.16 %, respectively (average difference of 1.73 %). The three-year average, however, does not clearly capture the variability that exists season-to-season. On examination of each of the test seasons individually, the optimized relative humidity threshold methodology performs better than fixed power loss estimates commonly used in the wind energy industry.

Corneal power evaluation after myopic corneal refractive surgery using artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Koprowski, Robert; Lanza, Michele; Irregolare, Carlo

2016-11-15

Efficacy and high availability of surgery techniques for refractive defect correction increase the number of patients who undergo to this type of surgery. Regardless of that, with increasing age, more and more patients must undergo cataract surgery. Accurate evaluation of corneal power is an extremely important element affecting the precision of intraocular lens (IOL) power calculation and errors in this procedure could affect quality of life of patients and satisfaction with the service provided. The available device able to measure corneal power have been tested to be not reliable after myopic refractive surgery. Artificial neural networks with error backpropagation and one hidden layer were proposed for corneal power prediction. The article analysed the features acquired from the Pentacam HR tomograph, which was necessary to measure the corneal power. Additionally, several billion iterations of artificial neural networks were conducted for several hundred simulations of different network configurations and different features derived from the Pentacam HR. The analysis was performed on a PC with Intel ® Xeon ® X5680 3.33 GHz CPU in Matlab ® Version 7.11.0.584 (R2010b) with Signal Processing Toolbox Version 7.1 (R2010b), Neural Network Toolbox 7.0 (R2010b) and Statistics Toolbox (R2010b). A total corneal power prediction error was obtained for 172 patients (113 patients forming the training set and 59 patients in the test set) with an average age of 32 ± 9.4 years, including 67% of men. The error was at an average level of 0.16 ± 0.14 diopters and its maximum value did not exceed 0.75 dioptres. The Pentacam parameters (measurement results) providing the above result are tangential anterial/posterior. The corneal net power and equivalent k-reading power. The analysis time for a single patient (a single eye) did not exceed 0.1 s, whereas the time of network training was about 3 s for 1000 iterations (the number of neurons in the hidden layer was 400).

Improved accuracy of intraocular lens power calculation with the Zeiss IOLMaster.

PubMed

Olsen, Thomas

2007-02-01

This study aimed to demonstrate how the level of accuracy in intraocular lens (IOL) power calculation can be improved with optical biometry using partial optical coherence interferometry (PCI) (Zeiss IOLMaster) and current anterior chamber depth (ACD) prediction algorithms. Intraocular lens power in 461 consecutive cataract operations was calculated using both PCI and ultrasound and the accuracy of the results of each technique were compared. To illustrate the importance of ACD prediction per se, predictions were calculated using both a recently published 5-variable method and the Haigis 2-variable method and the results compared. All calculations were optimized in retrospect to account for systematic errors, including IOL constants and other off-set errors. The average absolute IOL prediction error (observed minus expected refraction) was 0.65 dioptres with ultrasound and 0.43 D with PCI using the 5-variable ACD prediction method (p < 0.00001). The number of predictions within +/- 0.5 D, +/- 1.0 D and +/- 2.0 D of the expected outcome was 62.5%, 92.4% and 99.9% with PCI, compared with 45.5%, 77.3% and 98.4% with ultrasound, respectively (p < 0.00001). The 2-variable ACD method resulted in an average error in PCI predictions of 0.46 D, which was significantly higher than the error in the 5-variable method (p < 0.001). The accuracy of IOL power calculation can be significantly improved using calibrated axial length readings obtained with PCI and modern IOL power calculation formulas incorporating the latest generation ACD prediction algorithms.

Using a Guided Machine Learning Ensemble Model to Predict Discharge Disposition following Meningioma Resection.

PubMed

Muhlestein, Whitney E; Akagi, Dallin S; Kallos, Justiss A; Morone, Peter J; Weaver, Kyle D; Thompson, Reid C; Chambless, Lola B

2018-04-01

Objective  Machine learning (ML) algorithms are powerful tools for predicting patient outcomes. This study pilots a novel approach to algorithm selection and model creation using prediction of discharge disposition following meningioma resection as a proof of concept. Materials and Methods  A diversity of ML algorithms were trained on a single-institution database of meningioma patients to predict discharge disposition. Algorithms were ranked by predictive power and top performers were combined to create an ensemble model. The final ensemble was internally validated on never-before-seen data to demonstrate generalizability. The predictive power of the ensemble was compared with a logistic regression. Further analyses were performed to identify how important variables impact the ensemble. Results  Our ensemble model predicted disposition significantly better than a logistic regression (area under the curve of 0.78 and 0.71, respectively, p  = 0.01). Tumor size, presentation at the emergency department, body mass index, convexity location, and preoperative motor deficit most strongly influence the model, though the independent impact of individual variables is nuanced. Conclusion  Using a novel ML technique, we built a guided ML ensemble model that predicts discharge destination following meningioma resection with greater predictive power than a logistic regression, and that provides greater clinical insight than a univariate analysis. These techniques can be extended to predict many other patient outcomes of interest.

Hybrid robust predictive optimization method of power system dispatch

DOEpatents

Chandra, Ramu Sharat [Niskayuna, NY; Liu, Yan [Ballston Lake, NY; Bose, Sumit [Niskayuna, NY; de Bedout, Juan Manuel [West Glenville, NY

2011-08-02

A method of power system dispatch control solves power system dispatch problems by integrating a larger variety of generation, load and storage assets, including without limitation, combined heat and power (CHP) units, renewable generation with forecasting, controllable loads, electric, thermal and water energy storage. The method employs a predictive algorithm to dynamically schedule different assets in order to achieve global optimization and maintain the system normal operation.

Prestimulus Alpha Power Influences Tactile Temporal Perceptual Discrimination and Confidence in Decisions.

PubMed

Baumgarten, Thomas J; Schnitzler, Alfons; Lange, Joachim

2016-03-01

Recent studies have demonstrated that prestimulus alpha-band activity substantially influences perception of near-threshold stimuli. Here, we studied the influence of prestimulus alpha power fluctuations on temporal perceptual discrimination of suprathreshold tactile stimuli and subjects' confidence regarding their perceptual decisions. We investigated how prestimulus alpha-band power influences poststimulus decision-making variables. We presented electrical stimuli with different stimulus onset asynchronies (SOAs) to human subjects, and determined the SOA for which temporal perceptual discrimination varied on a trial-by-trial basis between perceiving 1 or 2 stimuli, prior to recording brain activity with magnetoencephalography. We found that low prestimulus alpha power in contralateral somatosensory and occipital areas predicts the veridical temporal perceptual discrimination of 2 stimuli. Additionally, prestimulus alpha power was negatively correlated with confidence ratings in correctly perceived trials, but positively correlated for incorrectly perceived trials. Finally, poststimulus event-related fields (ERFs) were modulated by prestimulus alpha power and reflect the result of a decisional process rather than physical stimulus parameters around ∼150 ms. These findings provide new insights into the link between spontaneous prestimulus alpha power fluctuations, temporal perceptual discrimination, decision making, and decisional confidence. The results suggest that prestimulus alpha power modulates perception and decisions on a continuous scale, as reflected in confidence ratings. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Power capability evaluation for lithium iron phosphate batteries based on multi-parameter constraints estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yujie; Pan, Rui; Liu, Chang; Chen, Zonghai; Ling, Qiang

2018-01-01

The battery power capability is intimately correlated with the climbing, braking and accelerating performance of the electric vehicles. Accurate power capability prediction can not only guarantee the safety but also regulate driving behavior and optimize battery energy usage. However, the nonlinearity of the battery model is very complex especially for the lithium iron phosphate batteries. Besides, the hysteresis loop in the open-circuit voltage curve is easy to cause large error in model prediction. In this work, a multi-parameter constraints dynamic estimation method is proposed to predict the battery continuous period power capability. A high-fidelity battery model which considers the battery polarization and hysteresis phenomenon is presented to approximate the high nonlinearity of the lithium iron phosphate battery. Explicit analyses of power capability with multiple constraints are elaborated, specifically the state-of-energy is considered in power capability assessment. Furthermore, to solve the problem of nonlinear system state estimation, and suppress noise interference, the UKF based state observer is employed for power capability prediction. The performance of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by experiments under different dynamic characterization schedules. The charge and discharge power capabilities of the lithium iron phosphate batteries are quantitatively assessed under different time scales and temperatures.

Balancing computation and communication power in power constrained clusters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Piga, Leonardo; Paul, Indrani; Huang, Wei

Systems, apparatuses, and methods for balancing computation and communication power in power constrained environments. A data processing cluster with a plurality of compute nodes may perform parallel processing of a workload in a power constrained environment. Nodes that finish tasks early may be power-gated based on one or more conditions. In some scenarios, a node may predict a wait duration and go into a reduced power consumption state if the wait duration is predicted to be greater than a threshold. The power saved by power-gating one or more nodes may be reassigned for use by other nodes. A cluster agentmore » may be configured to reassign the unused power to the active nodes to expedite workload processing.« less

Maintaining a Critical Spectra within Monteburns for a Gas-Cooled Reactor Array by Way of Control Rod Manipulation

DOE PAGES

Adigun, Babatunde John; Fensin, Michael Lorne; Galloway, Jack D.; ...

2016-10-01

Our burnup study examined the effect of a predicted critical control rod position on the nuclide predictability of several axial and radial locations within a 4×4 graphite moderated gas cooled reactor fuel cluster geometry. To achieve this, a control rod position estimator (CRPE) tool was developed within the framework of the linkage code Monteburns between the transport code MCNP and depletion code CINDER90, and four methodologies were proposed within the tool for maintaining criticality. Two of the proposed methods used an inverse multiplication approach - where the amount of fissile material in a set configuration is slowly altered until criticalitymore » is attained - in estimating the critical control rod position. Another method carried out several MCNP criticality calculations at different control rod positions, then used a linear fit to estimate the critical rod position. The final method used a second-order polynomial fit of several MCNP criticality calculations at different control rod positions to guess the critical rod position. The results showed that consistency in prediction of power densities as well as uranium and plutonium isotopics was mutual among methods within the CRPE tool that predicted critical position consistently well. Finall, while the CRPE tool is currently limited to manipulating a single control rod, future work could be geared toward implementing additional criticality search methodologies along with additional features.« less

Modeling of a resonant heat engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preetham, B. S.; Anderson, M.; Richards, C.

2012-12-01

A resonant heat engine in which the piston assembly is replaced by a sealed elastic cavity is modeled and analyzed. A nondimensional lumped-parameter model is derived and used to investigate the factors that control the performance of the engine. The thermal efficiency predicted by the model agrees with that predicted from the relation for the Otto cycle based on compression ratio. The predictions show that for a fixed mechanical load, increasing the heat input results in increased efficiency. The output power and power density are shown to depend on the loading for a given heat input. The loading condition for maximum output power is different from that required for maximum power density.

Synchrophasor-Assisted Prediction of Stability/Instability of a Power System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha Roy, Biman Kumar; Sinha, Avinash Kumar; Pradhan, Ashok Kumar

2013-05-01

This paper presents a technique for real-time prediction of stability/instability of a power system based on synchrophasor measurements obtained from phasor measurement units (PMUs) at generator buses. For stability assessment the technique makes use of system severity indices developed using bus voltage magnitude obtained from PMUs and generator electrical power. Generator power is computed using system information and PMU information like voltage and current phasors obtained from PMU. System stability/instability is predicted when the indices exceeds a threshold value. A case study is carried out on New England 10-generator, 39-bus system to validate the performance of the technique.

Prediction of the effects of propeller operation on the static longitudinal stability of single-engine tractor monoplanes with flaps retracted

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weil, Joseph; Sleeman, William C , Jr

1949-01-01

The effects of propeller operation on the static longitudinal stability of single-engine tractor monoplanes are analyzed, and a simple method is presented for computing power-on pitching-moment curves for flap-retracted flight conditions. The methods evolved are based on the results of powered-model wind-tunnel investigations of 28 model configurations. Correlation curves are presented from which the effects of power on the downwash over the tail and the stabilizer effectiveness can be rapidly predicted. The procedures developed enable prediction of power-on longitudinal stability characteristics that are generally in very good agreement with experiment.

An Operating Method Using Prediction of Photovoltaic Power for a Photovoltaic-Diesel Hybrid Power Generation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, Shigehiro; Sumi, Kazuyoshi; Nishikawa, Eiichi; Hashimoto, Takeshi

This paper describes a novel operating method using prediction of photovoltaic (PV) power for a photovoltaic-diesel hybrid power generation system. The system is composed of a PV array, a storage battery, a bi-directional inverter and a diesel engine generator (DG). The proposed method enables the system to save fuel consumption by using PV energy effectively, reducing charge and discharge energy of the storage battery, and avoiding low-load operation of the DG. The PV power is simply predicted from a theoretical equation of solar radiation and the observed PV energy for a constant time before the prediction. The amount of fuel consumption of the proposed method is compared with that of other methods by a simulation based on measurement data of the PV power at an actual PV generation system for one year. The simulation results indicate that the amount of fuel consumption of the proposed method is smaller than that of any other methods, and is close to that of the ideal operation of the DG.

Prediction of brain tissue temperature using near-infrared spectroscopy

PubMed Central

Holper, Lisa; Mitra, Subhabrata; Bale, Gemma; Robertson, Nicola; Tachtsidis, Ilias

2017-01-01

Abstract. Broadband near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) can provide an endogenous indicator of tissue temperature based on the temperature dependence of the water absorption spectrum. We describe a first evaluation of the calibration and prediction of brain tissue temperature obtained during hypothermia in newborn piglets (animal dataset) and rewarming in newborn infants (human dataset) based on measured body (rectal) temperature. The calibration using partial least squares regression proved to be a reliable method to predict brain tissue temperature with respect to core body temperature in the wavelength interval of 720 to 880 nm with a strong mean predictive power of R2=0.713±0.157 (animal dataset) and R2=0.798±0.087 (human dataset). In addition, we applied regression receiver operating characteristic curves for the first time to evaluate the temperature prediction, which provided an overall mean error bias between NIRS predicted brain temperature and body temperature of 0.436±0.283°C (animal dataset) and 0.162±0.149°C (human dataset). We discuss main methodological aspects, particularly the well-known aspect of over- versus underestimation between brain and body temperature, which is relevant for potential clinical applications. PMID:28630878

A Comparison between Bench Press Throw and Ballistic Push-Up tests to assess upper-body power in trained individuals.

PubMed

Bartolomei, Sandro; Nigro, Federico; Ruggeri, Sandro; Lanzoni, Ivan Malagoli; Ciacci, Simone; Merni, Franco; Sadres, Eliahu; Hoffman, Jay R; Semprini, Gabriele

2018-03-06

The purpose of the present study was to validate the ballistic push-up test performed with hands on a force plate (BPU) as a method to measure upper-body power. Twenty-eight experienced resistance trained men (age = 25.4 ± 5.2 y; body mass = 78.5 ± 9.0 kg; body height = 179.6 ± 7.8 cm) performed, two days apart, a bench press 1RM test and upper-body power tests. Mean power and peak power were assessed using the bench press throw test (BT) and the BPU test performed in randomized order. The area under the force/power curve (AUC) obtained at BT was also calculated. Power expressed at BPU was estimated using a time-based prediction equation. Mean force and the participant's body weight were used to predict the bench press 1RM. Pearson product moment correlations were used to examine relationships between the power assessment methods and between the predicted 1RM bench and the actual value. Large correlations (0.79; p < 0.001) were found between AUC and mean power expressed at BPU. Large correlations were also detected between mean power and peak power expressed at BT and BPU (0.75; p < 0.001 and 0.74; p < 0.001, respectively). Very large correlations (0.87; p < 0.001) were found between the 1RM bench and the 1RM predicted by the BPU. Results of the present study indicate that BPU represents a valid and reliable method to estimate the upper-body power in resistance-trained individuals.

Electronic stopping powers for heavy ions in SiC and SiO{sub 2}

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, K.; Xue, H.; Zhang, Y., E-mail: Zhangy1@ornl.gov

2014-01-28

Accurate information on electronic stopping power is fundamental for broad advances in materials science, electronic industry, space exploration, and sustainable energy technologies. In the case of slow heavy ions in light targets, current codes and models provide significantly inconsistent predictions, among which the Stopping and Range of Ions in Matter (SRIM) code is the most commonly used one. Experimental evidence, however, has demonstrated considerable errors in the predicted ion and damage profiles based on SRIM stopping powers. In this work, electronic stopping powers for Cl, Br, I, and Au ions are experimentally determined in two important functional materials, SiC andmore » SiO{sub 2}, based on a single ion technique, and new electronic stopping power values are derived over the energy regime from 0 to 15 MeV, where large deviations from the SRIM predictions are observed. As an experimental validation, Rutherford backscattering spectrometry (RBS) and secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) are utilized to measure the depth profiles of implanted Au ions in SiC for energies from 700 keV to 15 MeV. The measured ion distributions by both RBS and SIMS are considerably deeper than the SRIM predictions, but agree well with predictions based on our derived stopping powers.« less

Electronic Stopping Powers For Heavy Ions In SiC And SiO2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, Ke; Zhang, Y.; Zhu, Zihua

2014-01-24

Accurate information on electronic stopping power is fundamental for broad advances in materials science, electronic industry, space exploration, and sustainable energy technologies. In the case of slow heavy ions in light targets, current codes and models provide significantly inconsistent predictions, among which the Stopping and Range of Ions in Matter (SRIM) code is the most commonly used one. Experimental evidence, however, has demonstrated considerable errors in the predicted ion and damage profiles based on SRIM stopping powers. In this work, electronic stopping powers for Cl, Br, I, and Au ions are experimentally determined in two important functional materials, SiC andmore » SiO2, based on a single ion technique, and new electronic stopping power values are derived over the energy regime from 0 to 15 MeV, where large deviations from the SRIM predictions are observed. As an experimental validation, Rutherford backscattering spectrometry (RBS) and secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) are utilized to measure the depth profiles of implanted Au ions in SiC for energies from 700 keV to 15MeV. The measured ion distributions by both RBS and SIMS are considerably deeper than the SRIM predictions, but agree well with predictions based on our derived stopping powers.« less

Dynamic adjustments of cognitive control: oscillatory correlates of the conflict adaptation effect.

PubMed

Pastötter, Bernhard; Dreisbach, Gesine; Bäuml, Karl-Heinz T

2013-12-01

It is a prominent idea that cognitive control mediates conflict adaptation, in that response conflict in a previous trial triggers control adjustments that reduce conflict in a current trial. In the present EEG study, we investigated the dynamics of cognitive control in a response-priming task by examining the effects of previous trial conflict on intertrial and current trial oscillatory brain activities, both on the electrode and the source level. Behavioral results showed conflict adaptation effects for RTs and response accuracy. Physiological results showed sustained intertrial effects in left parietal theta power, originating in the left inferior parietal cortex, and midcentral beta power, originating in the left and right (pre)motor cortex. Moreover, physiological analysis revealed a current trial conflict adaptation effect in midfrontal theta power, originating in the ACC. Correlational analyses showed that intertrial effects predicted conflict-induced midfrontal theta power in currently incongruent trials. In addition, conflict adaptation effects in midfrontal theta power and RTs were positively related. Together, these findings point to a dynamic cognitive control system that, as a function of previous trial type, up- and down-regulates attention and preparatory motor activities in anticipation of the next trial.

Silicon device performance measurements to support temperature range enhancement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bromstead, James; Weir, Bennett; Nelms, R. Mark; Johnson, R. Wayne; Askew, Ray

1994-01-01

Silicon based power devices can be used at 200 C. The device measurements made during this program show a predictable shift in device parameters with increasing temperature. No catastrophic or abrupt changes occurred in the parameters over the temperature range. As expected, the most dramatic change was the increase in leakage currents with increasing temperature. At 200 C the leakage current was in the milliAmp range but was still several orders of magnitude lower than the on-state current capabilities of the devices under test. This increase must be considered in the design of circuits using power transistors at elevated temperature. Three circuit topologies have been prototyped using MOSFET's and IGBT's. The circuits were designed using zero current or zero voltage switching techniques to eliminate or minimize hard switching of the power transistors. These circuits have functioned properly over the temperature range. One thousand hour life data have been collected for two power supplies with no failures and no significant change in operating efficiency. While additional reliability testing should be conducted, the feasibility of designing soft switched circuits for operation at 200 C has been successfully demonstrated.

EOL performance comparison of GaAs/Ge and Si BSF/R solar arrays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woike, Thomas J.

1993-01-01

EOL power estimates for solar array designs are significantly influenced by the predicted degradation due to charged particle radiation. New radiation-induced power degradation data for GaAs/Ge solar arrays applicable to missions ranging from low earth orbit (LEO) to geosynchronous earth orbit (GEO) and compares these results to silicon BSF/R arrays. These results are based on recently published radiation damage coefficients for GaAs/Ge cells. The power density ratio (GaAs/Ge to Si BSF/R) was found to be as high as 1.83 for the proton-dominated worst-case altitude of 7408 km medium Earth orbit (MEO). Based on the EOL GaAs/Ge solar array power density results for MEO, missions which were previously considered infeasible may be reviewed based on these more favorable results. The additional life afforded by using GaAs/Ge cells is an important factor in system-level trade studies when selecting a solar cell technology for a mission and needs to be considered. The data presented supports this decision since the selected orbits have characteristics similar to most orbits of interest.

Performance of Comorbidity, Risk Adjustment, and Functional Status Measures in Expenditure Prediction for Patients With Diabetes

PubMed Central

Maciejewski, Matthew L.; Liu, Chuan-Fen; Fihn, Stephan D.

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE—To compare the ability of generic comorbidity and risk adjustment measures, a diabetes-specific measure, and a self-reported functional status measure to explain variation in health care expenditures for individuals with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—This study included a retrospective cohort of 3,092 diabetic veterans participating in a multisite trial. Two comorbidity measures, four risk adjusters, a functional status measure, a diabetes complication count, and baseline expenditures were constructed from administrative and survey data. Outpatient, inpatient, and total expenditure models were estimated using ordinary least squares regression. Adjusted R2 statistics and predictive ratios were compared across measures to assess overall explanatory power and explanatory power of low- and high-cost subgroups. RESULTS—Administrative data–based risk adjusters performed better than the comorbidity, functional status, and diabetes-specific measures in all expenditure models. The diagnostic cost groups (DCGs) measure had the greatest predictive power overall and for the low- and high-cost subgroups, while the diabetes-specific measure had the lowest predictive power. A model with DCGs and the diabetes-specific measure modestly improved predictive power. CONCLUSIONS—Existing generic measures can be useful for diabetes-specific research and policy applications, but more predictive diabetes-specific measures are needed. PMID:18945927

Off-Ice Anaerobic Power Does Not Predict On-Ice Repeated Shift Performance in Hockey.

PubMed

Peterson, Ben J; Fitzgerald, John S; Dietz, Calvin C; Ziegler, Kevin S; Baker, Sarah E; Snyder, Eric M

2016-09-01

Peterson, BJ, Fitzgerald, JS, Dietz, CC, Ziegler, KS, Baker, SE, and Snyder, EM. Off-ice anaerobic power does not predict on-ice repeated shift performance in hockey. J Strength Cond Res 30(9): 2375-2381, 2016-Anaerobic power is a significant predictor of acceleration and top speed in team sport athletes. Historically, these findings have been applied to ice hockey although recent research has brought their validity for this sport into question. As ice hockey emphasizes the ability to repeatedly produce power, single bout anaerobic power tests should be examined to determine their ability to predict on-ice performance. We tested whether conventional off-ice anaerobic power tests could predict on-ice acceleration, top speed, and repeated shift performance. Forty-five hockey players, aged 18-24 years, completed anthropometric, off-ice, and on-ice tests. Anthropometric and off-ice testing included height, weight, body composition, vertical jump, and Wingate tests. On-ice testing consisted of acceleration, top speed, and repeated shift fatigue tests. Vertical jump (VJ) (r = -0.42; r = -0.58), Wingate relative peak power (WRPP) (r = -0.32; r = -0.43), and relative mean power (WRMP) (r = -0.34; r = -0.48) were significantly correlated (p ≤ 0.05) to on-ice acceleration and top speed, respectively. Conversely, none of the off-ice tests correlated with on-ice repeated shift performance, as measured by first gate, second gate, or total course fatigue; VJ (r = 0.06; r = 0.13; r = 0.09), WRPP (r = 0.06; r = 0.14; r = 0.10), or WRMP (r = -0.10; r = -0.01; r = -0.01). Although conventional off-ice anaerobic power tests predict single bout on-ice acceleration and top speed, they neither predict the repeated shift ability of the player, nor are good markers for performance in ice hockey.

Nonlinear evolution of baryon acoustic oscillations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crocce, Martin; Institut de Ciencies de l'Espai, IEEC-CSIC, Campus UAB, Facultat de Ciencies, Torre C5 par-2, Barcelona 08193; Scoccimarro, Roman

2008-01-15

We study the nonlinear evolution of baryon acoustic oscillations in the dark matter power spectrum and the correlation function using renormalized perturbation theory. In a previous paper we showed that renormalized perturbation theory successfully predicts the damping of acoustic oscillations; here we extend our calculation to the enhancement of power due to mode coupling. We show that mode coupling generates additional oscillations that are out of phase with those in the linear spectrum, leading to shifts in the scales of oscillation nodes defined with respect to a smooth spectrum. When Fourier transformed, these out-of-phase oscillations induce percent-level shifts in themore » acoustic peak of the two-point correlation function. We present predictions for these shifts as a function of redshift; these should be considered as a robust lower limit to the more realistic case that includes, in addition, redshift distortions and galaxy bias. We show that these nonlinear effects occur at very large scales, leading to a breakdown of linear theory at scales much larger than commonly thought. We discuss why virialized halo profiles are not responsible for these effects, which can be understood from basic physics of gravitational instability. Our results are in excellent agreement with numerical simulations, and can be used as a starting point for modeling baryon acoustic oscillations in future observations. To meet this end, we suggest a simple physically motivated model to correct for the shifts caused by mode coupling.« less

NASA Lewis Stirling engine computer code evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sullivan, Timothy J.

1989-01-01

In support of the U.S. Department of Energy's Stirling Engine Highway Vehicle Systems program, the NASA Lewis Stirling engine performance code was evaluated by comparing code predictions without engine-specific calibration factors to GPU-3, P-40, and RE-1000 Stirling engine test data. The error in predicting power output was -11 percent for the P-40 and 12 percent for the Re-1000 at design conditions and 16 percent for the GPU-3 at near-design conditions (2000 rpm engine speed versus 3000 rpm at design). The efficiency and heat input predictions showed better agreement with engine test data than did the power predictions. Concerning all data points, the error in predicting the GPU-3 brake power was significantly larger than for the other engines and was mainly a result of inaccuracy in predicting the pressure phase angle. Analysis into this pressure phase angle prediction error suggested that improvements to the cylinder hysteresis loss model could have a significant effect on overall Stirling engine performance predictions.

Magnetic storm effects in electric power systems and prediction needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Albertson, V. D.; Kappenman, J. G.

1979-01-01

Geomagnetic field fluctuations produce spurious currents in electric power systems. These currents enter and exit through points remote from each other. The fundamental period of these currents is on the order of several minutes which is quasi-dc compared to the normal 60 Hz or 50 Hz power system frequency. Nearly all of the power systems problems caused by the geomagnetically induced currents result from the half-cycle saturation of power transformers due to simultaneous ac and dc excitation. The effects produced in power systems are presented, current research activity is discussed, and magnetic storm prediction needs of the power industry are listed.

On the IR-resummation in the EFTofLSS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senatore, Leonardo; Trevisan, Gabriele

2018-05-01

We propose a simplification for the IR-resummation scheme of [1] and also include its next-to-leading order corrections coming from the tree-level three-point function of the long displacement field. First we show that the new simplified formula shares the same properties of the resummation of [2]. In Fourier space, the IR-resummed power spectrum has no residual wiggles and the two-loop calculation matches the non-linear power spectrum of the Dark Sky simulation at z=0 up to ksimeq0.34 h Mpc‑1 within cosmic variance. Then, we find that the additional subleading terms (although parametrically infrared-enhanced) modify the leading-order IR-resummed correlation function only in a marginal way, implying that the IR-resummation scheme can robustly predict the shape of the BAO peak.

Observation of an optical spring with a beam splitter.

PubMed

Cripe, Jonathan; Danz, Baylee; Lane, Benjamin; Lorio, Mary Catherine; Falcone, Julia; Cole, Garrett D; Corbitt, Thomas

2018-05-01

We present the experimental observation of an optical spring without the use of an optical cavity. The optical spring is produced by interference at a beam splitter and, in principle, does not have the damping force associated with optical springs created in detuned cavities. The experiment consists of a Michelson-Sagnac interferometer (with no recycling cavities) with a partially reflective GaAs microresonator as the beam splitter that produces the optical spring. Our experimental measurements at input powers of up to 360 mW show the shift of the optical spring frequency as a function of power and are in excellent agreement with theoretical predictions. In addition, we show that the optical spring is able to keep the interferometer stable and locked without the use of external feedback.

Study to assess the effects of magnetohydrodynamic electromagnetic pulse on electric power systems, phase 1, volume 3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legro, J. R.; Abi-Samra, N. C.; Tesche, F. M.

1985-05-01

In addition to the initial transients designated as fast transient high-altitude EMP (HEMP) and intermediate time EMP, electromagnetic signals are also perceived at times from seconds to hundreds of seconds after a high-altitude nuclear burst. This signal was defined by the term magnetohydrodynamic-electromagnetic pulse (MHD-EMP). The MHD-EMP phenomena was detected in actual weapon tests and predicted from theoretical models. A preliminary research effort to investigate the nature and coupling of the MHD-EMP environments to electric power systems documented the construction of approximate system response network models, and the development of a unified methodology to assess equipment and systematic vulnerability are defined. The MHD-EMP environment is compared to a qualitatively similar natural event, the electromagnetic environment produced by geomagnetic storms.

The aerodynamic cost of flight in bats--comparing theory with measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Busse, Rhea; Waldman, Rye M.; Swartz, Sharon M.; Breuer, Kenneth S.

2012-11-01

Aerodynamic theory has long been used to predict the aerodynamic power required for animal flight. However, even though the actuator disk model does not account for the flapping motion of a wing, it is used for lack of any better model. The question remains: how close are these predictions to reality? We designed a study to compare predicted aerodynamic power to measured power from the kinetic energy contained in the wake shed behind a bat flying in a wind tunnel. A high-accuracy displaced light-sheet stereo PIV system was used in the Trefftz plane to capture the wake behind four bats flown over a range of flight speeds (1-6m/s). The total power in the wake was computed from the wake vorticity and these estimates were compared with the power predicted using Pennycuick's model for bird flight as well as estimates derived from measurements of the metabolic cost of flight, previously acquired from the same individuals.

A new method of power load prediction in electrification railway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dun, Xiaohong

2018-04-01

Aiming at the character of electrification railway, the paper mainly studies the problem of load prediction in electrification railway. After the preprocessing of data, and the similar days are separated on the basis of its statistical characteristics. Meanwhile the accuracy of different methods is analyzed. The paper provides a new thought of prediction and a new method of accuracy of judgment for the load prediction of power system.

Idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus, quantitative EEG findings, and the cerebrospinal fluid tap test: a pilot study.

PubMed

Seo, Jong-Geun; Kang, Kyunghun; Jung, Ji-Young; Park, Sung-Pa; Lee, Maan-Gee; Lee, Ho-Won

2014-12-01

In this pilot study, we analyzed relationships between quantitative EEG measurements and clinical parameters in idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus patients, along with differences in these quantitative EEG markers between cerebrospinal fluid tap test responders and nonresponders. Twenty-six idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus patients (9 cerebrospinal fluid tap test responders and 17 cerebrospinal fluid tap test nonresponders) constituted the final group for analysis. The resting EEG was recorded and relative powers were computed for seven frequency bands. Cerebrospinal fluid tap test nonresponders, when compared with responders, showed a statistically significant increase in alpha2 band power at the right frontal and centrotemporal regions. Higher delta2 band powers in the frontal, central, parietal, and occipital regions and lower alpha1 band powers in the right temporal region significantly correlated with poorer cognitive performance. Higher theta1 band powers in the left parietal and occipital regions significantly correlated with gait dysfunction. And higher delta1 band powers in the right frontal regions significantly correlated with urinary disturbance. Our findings may encourage further research using quantitative EEG in patients with ventriculomegaly as a potential electrophysiological marker for predicting cerebrospinal fluid tap test responders. This study additionally suggests that the delta, theta, and alpha bands are statistically correlated with the severity of symptoms in idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus patients.

Efficient Strategies for Predictive Cell-Level Control of Lithium-Ion Batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xavier, Marcelo A.

This dissertation introduces a set of state-space based model predictive control (MPC) algorithms tailored to a non-zero feedthrough term to account for the ohmic resistance that is inherent to the battery dynamics. MPC is herein applied to the problem of regulating cell-level measures of performance for lithium-ion batteries; the control methodologies are used first to compute a fast charging profile that respects input, output, and state constraints, i.e., input current, terminal voltage, and state of charge for an equivalent circuit model of the battery cell, and extended later to a linearized physics-based reduced-order model. The novelty of this work can summarized as follows: (1) the MPC variants are employed to a physics based reduce-order model in order to make use of the available set of internal electrochemical variables and mitigate internal mechanisms of cell degradation. (e.g., lithium plating); (2) we developed a dual-mode MPC closed-loop paradigm that suits the battery control problem with the objective of reducing computational effort by solving simpler optimization routines and guaranteeing stability; and finally (3) we developed a completely new approach of the use of a predictive control strategy where MPC is employed as a "smart sensor" for power estimation. Results are presented that show the comparative performance of the MPC algorithms for both EMC and PBROM These results highlight that dual-mode MPC can deliver optimal input current profiles by using a shorter horizon while still guaranteeing stability. Additionally, rigorous mathematical developments are presented for the development of the MPC algorithms. The use of MPC as a "smart sensor" presents it self as an appealing method for power estimation, since MPC permits a fully dynamic input profile that is able to achieve performance right at the proper constraint boundaries. Therefore, MPC is expected to produce accurate power limits for each computed sample time when compared to the Bisection method [1] which assumes constant input values over the prediction interval.

Initial comparison of single cylinder Stirling engine computer model predictions with test results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tew, R. C., Jr.; Thieme, L. G.; Miao, D.

1979-01-01

A NASA developed digital computer code for a Stirling engine, modelling the performance of a single cylinder rhombic drive ground performance unit (GPU), is presented and its predictions are compared to test results. The GPU engine incorporates eight regenerator/cooler units and the engine working space is modelled by thirteen control volumes. The model calculates indicated power and efficiency for a given engine speed, mean pressure, heater and expansion space metal temperatures and cooler water inlet temperature and flow rate. Comparison of predicted and observed powers implies that the reference pressure drop calculations underestimate actual pressure drop, possibly due to oil contamination in the regenerator/cooler units, methane contamination in the working gas or the underestimation of mechanical loss. For a working gas of hydrogen, the predicted values of brake power are from 0 to 6% higher than experimental values, and brake efficiency is 6 to 16% higher, while for helium the predicted brake power and efficiency are 2 to 15% higher than the experimental.

Image Feature Types and Their Predictions of Aesthetic Preference and Naturalness

PubMed Central

Ibarra, Frank F.; Kardan, Omid; Hunter, MaryCarol R.; Kotabe, Hiroki P.; Meyer, Francisco A. C.; Berman, Marc G.

2017-01-01

Previous research has investigated ways to quantify visual information of a scene in terms of a visual processing hierarchy, i.e., making sense of visual environment by segmentation and integration of elementary sensory input. Guided by this research, studies have developed categories for low-level visual features (e.g., edges, colors), high-level visual features (scene-level entities that convey semantic information such as objects), and how models of those features predict aesthetic preference and naturalness. For example, in Kardan et al. (2015a), 52 participants provided aesthetic preference and naturalness ratings, which are used in the current study, for 307 images of mixed natural and urban content. Kardan et al. (2015a) then developed a model using low-level features to predict aesthetic preference and naturalness and could do so with high accuracy. What has yet to be explored is the ability of higher-level visual features (e.g., horizon line position relative to viewer, geometry of building distribution relative to visual access) to predict aesthetic preference and naturalness of scenes, and whether higher-level features mediate some of the association between the low-level features and aesthetic preference or naturalness. In this study we investigated these relationships and found that low- and high- level features explain 68.4% of the variance in aesthetic preference ratings and 88.7% of the variance in naturalness ratings. Additionally, several high-level features mediated the relationship between the low-level visual features and aaesthetic preference. In a multiple mediation analysis, the high-level feature mediators accounted for over 50% of the variance in predicting aesthetic preference. These results show that high-level visual features play a prominent role predicting aesthetic preference, but do not completely eliminate the predictive power of the low-level visual features. These strong predictors provide powerful insights for future research relating to landscape and urban design with the aim of maximizing subjective well-being, which could lead to improved health outcomes on a larger scale. PMID:28503158

A phenomenological model of muscle fatigue and the power-endurance relationship.

PubMed

James, A; Green, S

2012-11-01

The relationship between power output and the time that it can be sustained during exercise (i.e., endurance) at high intensities is curvilinear. Although fatigue is implicit in this relationship, there is little evidence pertaining to it. To address this, we developed a phenomenological model that predicts the temporal response of muscle power during submaximal and maximal exercise and which was based on the type, contractile properties (e.g., fatiguability), and recruitment of motor units (MUs) during exercise. The model was first used to predict power outputs during all-out exercise when fatigue is clearly manifest and for several distributions of MU type. The model was then used to predict times that different submaximal power outputs could be sustained for several MU distributions, from which several power-endurance curves were obtained. The model was simultaneously fitted to two sets of human data pertaining to all-out exercise (power-time profile) and submaximal exercise (power-endurance relationship), yielding a high goodness of fit (R(2) = 0.96-0.97). This suggested that this simple model provides an accurate description of human power output during submaximal and maximal exercise and that fatigue-related processes inherent in it account for the curvilinearity of the power-endurance relationship.

High plasma omentin predicts cardiovascular events independently from the presence and extent of angiographically determined atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Saely, Christoph H; Leiherer, Andreas; Muendlein, Axel; Vonbank, Alexander; Rein, Philipp; Geiger, Kathrin; Malin, Cornelia; Drexel, Heinz

2016-01-01

No prospective data on the power of the adipocytokine omentin to predict cardiovascular events are available. We aimed at investigating i) the association of plasma omentin with cardiometabolic risk markers, ii) its association with angiographically determined coronary atherosclerosis, and iii) its power to predict cardiovascular events. We measured plasma omentin in 295 patients undergoing coronary angiography for the evaluation of established or suspected stable coronary artery disease (CAD), of whom 161 had significant CAD with coronary artery stenoses ≥50% and 134 did not have significant CAD. Over 3.5 years, 17.6% of our patients suffered cardiovascular events, corresponding to an annual event rate of 5.0%. At baseline, plasma omentin was not significantly associated with metabolic syndrome stigmata and did not differ significantly between patients with and subjects without significant CAD (17.2 ± 13.6 ng/ml vs. 17.5 ± 15.1 ng/ml; p = 0.783). Prospectively, however, cardiovascular event risk significantly increased over tertiles of omentin (12.1%, 13.8%, and 29.5%, for tertiles 1 through 3; ptrend = 0.003), and omentin as a continuous variable significantly predicted cardiovascular events after adjustment for age, gender, BMI, diabetes, hypertension, LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, and smoking (standardized adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.41 [95% CI 1.16-1.72]; p < 0.001), as well as after additional adjustment for the presence and extent of significant CAD at baseline (HR 1.59 [95% CI 1.29-1.97, p < 0.001). From this first prospective evaluation of the cardiovascular risk associated with omentin we conclude that elevated plasma omentin significantly predicts cardiovascular events independently from the presence and extent of angiographically determined baseline CAD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictors of Mortality in the Critically Ill Cirrhotic Patient: Is the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Enough?

PubMed

Annamalai, Alagappan; Harada, Megan Y; Chen, Melissa; Tran, Tram; Ko, Ara; Ley, Eric J; Nuno, Miriam; Klein, Andrew; Nissen, Nicholas; Noureddin, Mazen

2017-03-01

Critically ill cirrhotics require liver transplantation urgently, but are at high risk for perioperative mortality. The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, recently updated to incorporate serum sodium, estimates survival probability in patients with cirrhosis, but needs additional evaluation in the critically ill. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the predictive power of ICU admission MELD scores and identify clinical risk factors associated with increased mortality. This was a retrospective review of cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU between January 2011 and December 2014. Patients who were discharged or underwent transplantation (survivors) were compared with those who died (nonsurvivors). Demographic characteristics, admission MELD scores, and clinical risk factors were recorded. Multivariate regression was used to identify independent predictors of mortality, and measures of model performance were assessed to determine predictive accuracy. Of 276 patients who met inclusion criteria, 153 were considered survivors and 123 were nonsurvivors. Survivor and nonsurvivor cohorts had similar demographic characteristics. Nonsurvivors had increased MELD, gastrointestinal bleeding, infection, mechanical ventilation, encephalopathy, vasopressors, dialysis, renal replacement therapy, requirement of blood products, and ICU length of stay. The MELD demonstrated low predictive power (c-statistic 0.73). Multivariate analysis identified MELD score (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.05), mechanical ventilation (AOR = 4.55), vasopressors (AOR = 3.87), and continuous renal replacement therapy (AOR = 2.43) as independent predictors of mortality, with stronger predictive accuracy (c-statistic 0.87). The MELD demonstrated relatively poor predictive accuracy in critically ill patients with cirrhosis and might not be the best indicator for prognosis in the ICU population. Prognostic accuracy is significantly improved when variables indicating organ support (mechanical ventilation, vasopressors, and continuous renal replacement therapy) are included in the model. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Overcoming the black body limit in plasmonic and graphene near-field thermophotovoltaic systems.

PubMed

Ilic, Ognjen; Jablan, Marinko; Joannopoulos, John D; Celanovic, Ivan; Soljacić, Marin

2012-05-07

Near-field thermophotovoltaic (TPV) systems with carefully tailored emitter-PV properties show large promise for a new temperature range (600 – 1200K) solid state energy conversion, where conventional thermoelectric (TE) devices cannot operate due to high temperatures and far-field TPV schemes suffer from low efficiency and power density. We present a detailed theoretical study of several different implementations of thermal emitters using plasmonic materials and graphene. We find that optimal improvements over the black body limit are achieved for low bandgap semiconductors and properly matched plasmonic frequencies. For a pure plasmonic emitter, theoretically predicted generated power density of 14 W/cm2 and efficiency of 36% can be achieved at 600K (hot-side), for 0.17eV bandgap (InSb). Developing insightful approximations, we argue that large plasmonic losses can, contrary to intuition, be helpful in enhancing the overall near-field transfer. We discuss and quantify the properties of an optimal near-field photovoltaic (PV) diode. In addition, we study plasmons in graphene and show that doping can be used to tune the plasmonic dispersion relation to match the PV cell bangap. In case of graphene, theoretically predicted generated power density of 6(120) W/cm2 and efficiency of 35(40)% can be achieved at 600(1200)K, for 0.17eV bandgap. With the ability to operate in intermediate temperature range, as well as high efficiency and power density, near-field TPV systems have the potential to complement conventional TE and TPV solid state heat-to-electricity conversion devices.

Estimation of Power Consumption in the Circular Sawing of Stone Based on Tangential Force Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Guoqin; Zhang, Meiqin; Huang, Hui; Guo, Hua; Xu, Xipeng

2018-04-01

Circular sawing is an important method for the processing of natural stone. The ability to predict sawing power is important in the optimisation, monitoring and control of the sawing process. In this paper, a predictive model (PFD) of sawing power, which is based on the tangential force distribution at the sawing contact zone, was proposed, experimentally validated and modified. With regard to the influence of sawing speed on tangential force distribution, the modified PFD (MPFD) performed with high predictive accuracy across a wide range of sawing parameters, including sawing speed. The mean maximum absolute error rate was within 6.78%, and the maximum absolute error rate was within 11.7%. The practicability of predicting sawing power by the MPFD with few initial experimental samples was proved in case studies. On the premise of high sample measurement accuracy, only two samples are required for a fixed sawing speed. The feasibility of applying the MPFD to optimise sawing parameters while lowering the energy consumption of the sawing system was validated. The case study shows that energy use was reduced 28% by optimising the sawing parameters. The MPFD model can be used to predict sawing power, optimise sawing parameters and control energy.

Predicted impact of thermal power generation emission control measures in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region on air pollution over Beijing, China.

PubMed

Wang, Liqiang; Li, Pengfei; Yu, Shaocai; Mehmood, Khalid; Li, Zhen; Chang, Shucheng; Liu, Weiping; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Flagan, Richard C; Seinfeld, John H

2018-01-17

Widespread economic growth in China has led to increasing episodes of severe air pollution, especially in major urban areas. Thermal power plants represent a particularly important class of emissions. Here we present an evaluation of the predicted effectiveness of a series of recently proposed thermal power plant emission controls in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region on air quality over Beijing using the Community Multiscale Air Quality(CMAQ) atmospheric chemical transport model to predict CO, SO 2 , NO 2 , PM 2.5 , and PM 10 levels. A baseline simulation of the hypothetical removal of all thermal power plants in the BTH region is predicted to lead to 38%, 23%, 23%, 24%, and 24% reductions in current annual mean levels of CO, SO 2 , NO 2 , PM 2.5 , and PM 10 in Beijing, respectively. Similar percentage reductions are predicted in the major cities in the BTH region. Simulations of the air quality impact of six proposed thermal power plant emission reduction strategies over the BTH region provide an estimate of the potential improvement in air quality in the Beijing metropolitan area, as a function of the time of year.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, Ke; Zhang, Yanwen; Zhu, Zihua

Accurate information of electronic stopping power is fundamental for broad advances in electronic industry, space exploration, national security, and sustainable energy technologies. The Stopping and Range of Ions in Matter (SRIM) code has been widely applied to predict stopping powers and ion distributions for decades. Recent experimental results have, however, shown considerable errors in the SRIM predictions for stopping of heavy ions in compounds containing light elements, indicating an urgent need to improve current stopping power models. The electronic stopping powers of 35Cl, 80Br, 127I, and 197Au ions are experimentally determined in two important functional materials, SiC and SiO2, frommore » tens to hundreds keV/u based on a single ion technique. By combining with the reciprocity theory, new electronic stopping powers are suggested in a region from 0 to 15 MeV, where large deviations from SRIM predictions are observed. For independent experimental validation of the electronic stopping powers we determined, Rutherford backscattering spectrometry (RBS) and secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) are utilized to measure the depth profiles of implanted Au ions in SiC with energies from 700 keV to 15 MeV. The measured ion distributions from both RBS and SIMS are considerably deeper (up to ~30%) than the predictions from the commercial SRIM code. In comparison, the new electronic stopping power values are utilized in a modified TRIM-85 (the original version of the SRIM) code, M-TRIM, to predict ion distributions, and the results are in good agreement with the experimentally measured ion distributions.« less

NASA's Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) Project Unveils a New Geospatial Data Portal

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-03-01

The Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) Project facilitates access to NASA's satellite and modeling analysis for Renewable Energy, Sustainable Buildings and Agroclimatology applications.  A   new ...

Predicting protein function and other biomedical characteristics with heterogeneous ensembles

PubMed Central

Whalen, Sean; Pandey, Om Prakash

2015-01-01

Prediction problems in biomedical sciences, including protein function prediction (PFP), are generally quite difficult. This is due in part to incomplete knowledge of the cellular phenomenon of interest, the appropriateness and data quality of the variables and measurements used for prediction, as well as a lack of consensus regarding the ideal predictor for specific problems. In such scenarios, a powerful approach to improving prediction performance is to construct heterogeneous ensemble predictors that combine the output of diverse individual predictors that capture complementary aspects of the problems and/or datasets. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of such heterogeneous ensembles, derived from stacking and ensemble selection methods, for addressing PFP and other similar biomedical prediction problems. Deeper analysis of these results shows that the superior predictive ability of these methods, especially stacking, can be attributed to their attention to the following aspects of the ensemble learning process: (i) better balance of diversity and performance, (ii) more effective calibration of outputs and (iii) more robust incorporation of additional base predictors. Finally, to make the effective application of heterogeneous ensembles to large complex datasets (big data) feasible, we present DataSink, a distributed ensemble learning framework, and demonstrate its sound scalability using the examined datasets. DataSink is publicly available from https://github.com/shwhalen/datasink. PMID:26342255

Predictive models of poly(ethylene-terephthalate) film degradation under multi-factor accelerated weathering exposures

PubMed Central

Ngendahimana, David K.; Fagerholm, Cara L.; Sun, Jiayang; Bruckman, Laura S.

2017-01-01

Accelerated weathering exposures were performed on poly(ethylene-terephthalate) (PET) films. Longitudinal multi-level predictive models as a function of PET grades and exposure types were developed for the change in yellowness index (YI) and haze (%). Exposures with similar change in YI were modeled using a linear fixed-effects modeling approach. Due to the complex nature of haze formation, measurement uncertainty, and the differences in the samples’ responses, the change in haze (%) depended on individual samples’ responses and a linear mixed-effects modeling approach was used. When compared to fixed-effects models, the addition of random effects in the haze formation models significantly increased the variance explained. For both modeling approaches, diagnostic plots confirmed independence and homogeneity with normally distributed residual errors. Predictive R2 values for true prediction error and predictive power of the models demonstrated that the models were not subject to over-fitting. These models enable prediction under pre-defined exposure conditions for a given exposure time (or photo-dosage in case of UV light exposure). PET degradation under cyclic exposures combining UV light and condensing humidity is caused by photolytic and hydrolytic mechanisms causing yellowing and haze formation. Quantitative knowledge of these degradation pathways enable cross-correlation of these lab-based exposures with real-world conditions for service life prediction. PMID:28498875

Mode-independent attenuation in evanescent-field sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnewuch, Harald; Renner, Hagen

1995-03-01

Generally, the total power attenuation in multimode evanescent-field sensor waveguides is nonproportional to the bulk absorbance because the modal attenuation constants differ. Hence a direct measurement is difficult and is additionally aggravated because the waveguide absorbance is highly sensitive to the specific launching conditions at the waveguide input. A general asymptotic formula for the modal power attenuation in strongly asymmetric inhomogeneous planar waveguides with arbitrarily distributed weak absorption in the low-index superstrate is derived. Explicit expressions for typical refractive-index profiles are given. Except when very close to the cutoff, the predicted asymptotic attenuation behavior agrees well with exact calculations. The ratio of TM versus TE absorption has been derived to be (2 - n0 2/nf2 ) for arbitrary profiles. Waveguides with a linear refractive-index profile show mode-independent attenuation coefficients within each polarization. Further, the asymptotic sensitivity is independent of the wavelength, so that it should be possible to directly measure the spectral variation of the bulk absorption. The mode independence of the attenuation has been verified experimentally for a second-order polynomial profile, which is close to a linear refractive-index distribution. In contrast, the attenuation in the step-profile waveguide has been found to depend strongly on the mode number, as predicted by theory. A strong spread of the modal attenuation coefficients is also predicted for the parabolic-profile waveguide sensor.

Identification of Hemoglobin Levels Based on Anthropometric Indices in Elderly Koreans

PubMed Central

Kim, Jong Yeol

2016-01-01

Objectives Anemia is independently and strongly associated with an increased risk of mortality in older people and is also strongly associated with obesity. The objectives of the present study were to examine the associations between the hemoglobin level and various anthropometric indices, to predict low and normal hemoglobin levels using combined anthropometric indices, and to assess differences in the hemoglobin level and anthropometric indices between Korean men and women. Methods A total of 7,156 individuals ranging in age from 53–90 years participated in this retrospective cross-sectional study. Binary logistic regression (LR) and naïve Bayes (NB) models were used to identify significant differences in the anthropometric indices between subjects with low and normal hemoglobin levels and to assess the predictive power of these indices for the hemoglobin level. Results Among all of the variables, age displayed the strongest association with the hemoglobin level in both men (p < 0.0001, odds ratio [OR] = 0.487, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve based on the LR [LR-AUC] = 0.702, NB-AUC = 0.701) and women (p < 0.0001, OR = 0.636, LR-AUC = 0.625, NB-AUC = 0.624). Among the anthropometric indices, weight and body mass index (BMI) were the best predictors of the hemoglobin level. The predictive powers of all of the variables were higher in men than in women. The AUC values for the NB-Wrapper and LR-Wrapper predictive models generated using combined anthropometric indices were 0.734 and 0.723, respectively, for men and 0.649 and 0.652, respectively, for women. The use of combined anthropometric indices may improve the predictive power for the hemoglobin level. Discussion Among the various anthropometric indices, with the exception of age, we did not identify any indices that were better predictors than weight and BMI for low and normal hemoglobin levels. In addition, none of the ratios between pairs of indices were good indicators of the hemoglobin level. Finally, the Korean men tended to have higher associations between the anthropometric indices and anemia than the women. PMID:27812118

Predictability of Brayton electric power system performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klann, J. L.; Hettel, H. J.

1972-01-01

Data from the first tests of the 2- to 15-kilowatt space power system in a vacuum chamber were compared with predictions of both a pretest analysis and a modified version of that analysis. The pretest analysis predicted test results with differences of no more than 9 percent of the largest measured value for each quantity. The modified analysis correlated measurements. Differences in conversion efficiency and power output were no greater than plus or minus 2.5 percent. This modified analysis was used to project space performance maps for the current test system.

Can Rheumatologists Predict Eventual Need for Orthopaedic Intervention in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis? Results of a Systematic Review and Analysis of Two UK Inception Cohorts.

PubMed

Nikiphorou, Elena; Carpenter, Lewis; Norton, Sam; Morris, Stephen; MacGregor, Alex; Dixey, Josh; Williams, Peter; Kiely, Patrick; Walsh, David Andrew; Young, Adam

2017-03-01

The structural damage caused by rheumatoid arthritis (RA) can often be mitigated by orthopaedic surgery in late disease. This study evaluates the value of predictive factors for orthopaedic intervention. A systematic review of literature was undertaken to identify papers describing predictive factors for orthopaedic surgery in RA. Manuscripts were selected if they met inclusion criteria of cohort study design, diagnosis of RA, follow-up duration/disease duration ≥3 years, any orthopaedic surgical interventions recorded, and then summarised for predictive factors. A separate predictive analysis was performed on two consecutive UK Early RA cohorts, linked to national datasets. The literature search identified 15 reports examining predictive factors for orthopaedic intervention, 4 inception, 5 prospective and 6 retrospective. Despite considerable variation, acute phase, x-ray scores, women and genotyping were the most commonly reported prognostic markers. The current predictive analysis included 1602 procedures performed in 711 patients (25-year cumulative incidence 26%). Earlier recruitment year, erosions and lower haemoglobin predicted both intermediate and major surgery (P<0.05). Studies report variations in type of and predictive power of clinical and laboratory parameters for different surgical interventions suggesting specific contributions from different pathological and/or patient-level factors. Our current analysis suggests that attention to non-inflammatory factors in addition to suppression of inflammation is needed to minimise the burden of orthopaedic surgery.

Evaluation of the 8th TNM classification on p16-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas in the Netherlands, and the importance of additional HPV DNA-testing.

PubMed

Nauta, I H; Rietbergen, M M; van Bokhoven, A A J D; Bloemena, E; Witte, B I; Heideman, D A M; Baatenburg de Jong, R J; Brakenhoff, R H; Leemans, C R

2018-02-09

Oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas (OPSCCs) are traditionally caused by smoking and excessive alcohol consumption. However, in the last decades high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) infections play an increasingly important role in tumorigenesis. HPV-driven OPSCCs are known to have a more favorable prognosis, which has led to important and marked changes in the recently released TNM-8. In this edition, OPSCCs are divided based on p16-immunostaining, with p16-overexpression as surrogate marker for the presence of HPV. The aims of this study are to evaluate TNM-8 on a Dutch consecutive cohort of patients with p16-positive OPSCC and to determine the relevance of additional HPV DNA-testing. All OPSCC patients without distant metastases at diagnosis and treated with curative intent at VU University Medical Center (2000-2015) and Erasmus Medical Center (2000-2006) were included (N = 1,204). HPV-status was established by p16-immunostaining followed by HPV DNA-PCR on the p16-immunopositive cases. We compared TNM-7 and TNM-8 using the Harrell's C index. In total, 388 of 1,204 (32.2%) patients were p16-immunopositive. In these patients, TNM-8 had a markedly better predictive prognostic power than TNM-7 (Harrell's C index 0.63 versus 0.53). Of the 388 p16-positive OPSCCs, 48 tumors (12.4%) were HPV DNA-negative. This subgroup had distinct demographic, clinical and morphologic characteristics and showed a significantly worse five-year overall survival compared to the HPV DNA-positive tumors (P < 0.001). TNM-8 has a better predictive prognostic power than TNM-7 in patients with p16-positive OPSCC. However, within p16-positive OPSCCs there is an HPV DNA-negative subgroup with distinct features and a worse overall survival, indicating the importance to perform additional HPV DNA-testing when predicting prognosis and particularly for selecting patients for de-intensified treatment regimens. © The Author 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A Nuclear Renaissance: The Role of Nuclear Power in Mitigating Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winslow, Anne

2011-06-01

The U. N. Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for the stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at double the preindustrial atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. To achieve this goal, carbon emissions in 2050 must not exceed their current level, despite predictions of a dramatic increase in global electricity demand. The need to reduce GHG emissions and simultaneously provide for additional electricity demand has led to a renewed interest in the expansion of alternatives to fossil fuels—particularly renewable energy and nuclear power. As renewable energy sources are often constrained by the intermittency of natural energy forms, scale-ability concerns, cost and environmental barriers, many governments and even prominent environmentalist turn to nuclear energy as a source of clean, reliable base-load electricity. Described by some as a "nuclear renaissance", this trend of embracing nuclear power as a tool to mitigate climate change will dramatically influence the feasibility of emerging nuclear programs around the world.

A Nuclear Renaissance: The Role of Nuclear Power in Mitigating Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Winslow, Anne

2011-06-28

The U. N. Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for the stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at double the preindustrial atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. To achieve this goal, carbon emissions in 2050 must not exceed their current level, despite predictions of a dramatic increase in global electricity demand. The need to reduce GHG emissions and simultaneously provide for additional electricity demand has led to a renewed interest in the expansion of alternatives to fossil fuels--particularly renewable energy and nuclear power. As renewable energy sources are often constrained by the intermittencymore » of natural energy forms, scale-ability concerns, cost and environmental barriers, many governments and even prominent environmentalist turn to nuclear energy as a source of clean, reliable base-load electricity. Described by some as a ''nuclear renaissance'', this trend of embracing nuclear power as a tool to mitigate climate change will dramatically influence the feasibility of emerging nuclear programs around the world.« less

EEG alpha frequency correlates of burnout and depression: The role of gender.

PubMed

Tement, Sara; Pahor, Anja; Jaušovec, Norbert

2016-02-01

EEG alpha frequency band biomarkers of depression are widely explored. Due to their trait-like features, they may help distinguish between depressive and burnout symptomatology, which is often referred to as "work-related depression". The present correlational study strived to examine whether individual alpha frequency (IAF), power, and coherence in the alpha band can provide evidence for establishing burnout as a separate diagnostic entity. Resting EEG (eyes closed) was recorded in 117 individuals (42 males). In addition, the participants filled-out questionnaires of burnout and depression. Regression analyses highlighted the differential value of IAF and power in predicting burnout and depression. IAF was significantly related to depressive symptomatology, whereas power was linked mostly to burnout. Moreover, seven out of twelve interactions between EEG indicators and gender were significant. Connectivity patterns were significant for depression displaying gender-related differences. The results offer tentative support for establishing burnout as a separate clinical syndrome. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical results from the Virginia Tech propagation experiment using the Olympus 12, 20, and 30 GHz satellite beacons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stutzman, Warren L.; Safaai-Jazi, A.; Pratt, Timothy; Nelson, B.; Laster, J.; Ajaz, H.

1993-01-01

Virginia Tech has performed a comprehensive propagation experiment using the Olympus satellite beacons at 12.5, 19.77, and 29.66 GHz (which we refer to as 12, 20, and 30 GHz). Four receive terminals were designed and constructed, one terminal at each frequency plus a portable one with 20 and 30 GHz receivers for microscale and scintillation studies. Total power radiometers were included in each terminal in order to set the clear air reference level for each beacon and also to predict path attenuation. More details on the equipment and the experiment design are found elsewhere. Statistical results for one year of data collection were analyzed. In addition, the following studies were performed: a microdiversity experiment in which two closely spaced 20 GHz receivers were used; a comparison of total power and Dicke switched radiometer measurements, frequency scaling of scintillations, and adaptive power control algorithm development. Statistical results are reported.

Low-Cost Nested-MIMO Array for Large-Scale Wireless Sensor Applications.

PubMed

Zhang, Duo; Wu, Wen; Fang, Dagang; Wang, Wenqin; Cui, Can

2017-05-12

In modern communication and radar applications, large-scale sensor arrays have increasingly been used to improve the performance of a system. However, the hardware cost and circuit power consumption scale linearly with the number of sensors, which makes the whole system expensive and power-hungry. This paper presents a low-cost nested multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) array, which is capable of providing O ( 2 N 2 ) degrees of freedom (DOF) with O ( N ) physical sensors. The sensor locations of the proposed array have closed-form expressions. Thus, the aperture size and number of DOF can be predicted as a function of the total number of sensors. Additionally, with the help of time-sequence-phase-weighting (TSPW) technology, only one receiver channel is required for sampling the signals received by all of the sensors, which is conducive to reducing the hardware cost and power consumption. Numerical simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed array.

Low-Cost Nested-MIMO Array for Large-Scale Wireless Sensor Applications

PubMed Central

Zhang, Duo; Wu, Wen; Fang, Dagang; Wang, Wenqin; Cui, Can

2017-01-01

In modern communication and radar applications, large-scale sensor arrays have increasingly been used to improve the performance of a system. However, the hardware cost and circuit power consumption scale linearly with the number of sensors, which makes the whole system expensive and power-hungry. This paper presents a low-cost nested multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) array, which is capable of providing O(2N2) degrees of freedom (DOF) with O(N) physical sensors. The sensor locations of the proposed array have closed-form expressions. Thus, the aperture size and number of DOF can be predicted as a function of the total number of sensors. Additionally, with the help of time-sequence-phase-weighting (TSPW) technology, only one receiver channel is required for sampling the signals received by all of the sensors, which is conducive to reducing the hardware cost and power consumption. Numerical simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed array. PMID:28498329

Interdependencies and Causalities in Coupled Financial Networks.

PubMed

Vodenska, Irena; Aoyama, Hideaki; Fujiwara, Yoshi; Iyetomi, Hiroshi; Arai, Yuta

2016-01-01

We explore the foreign exchange and stock market networks for 48 countries from 1999 to 2012 and propose a model, based on complex Hilbert principal component analysis, for extracting significant lead-lag relationships between these markets. The global set of countries, including large and small countries in Europe, the Americas, Asia, and the Middle East, is contrasted with the limited scopes of targets, e.g., G5, G7 or the emerging Asian countries, adopted by previous works. We construct a coupled synchronization network, perform community analysis, and identify formation of four distinct network communities that are relatively stable over time. In addition to investigating the entire period, we divide the time period into into "mild crisis," (1999-2002), "calm," (2003-2006) and "severe crisis" (2007-2012) sub-periods and find that the severe crisis period behavior dominates the dynamics in the foreign exchange-equity synchronization network. We observe that in general the foreign exchange market has predictive power for the global stock market performances. In addition, the United States, German and Mexican markets have forecasting power for the performances of other global equity markets.

Using the Prototype/Willingness model to predict smoking behaviour among Norwegian adolescents.

PubMed

Hukkelberg, Silje Sommer; Dykstra, Jennifer L

2009-03-01

This paper examines cognitive antecedents of non-smoking among adolescents who reported smoking less than 1-2 times a week, and reported non-smoking intentions and willingness, in the framework of the Prototype/Willingness model. Two waves of data were obtained from a nation-wide sample of 760 Norwegian adolescents who responded to a school-based survey on smoking. Structural equation modelling was used to evaluate the predictive power of the social reaction pathway (prototype and willingness) of the P/W model, and in addition, the constructs from the Theory of Reasoned Action (subjective norm, attitude and intention). Results demonstrated the unique importance of the social reaction path when examining smoking behaviour among non-smoking adolescents. Implications of the findings and possible applications are discussed.

Finite element analysis using NASTRAN applied to helicopter transmission vibration/noise reduction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howells, R. W.; Sciarra, J. J.

1975-01-01

A finite element NASTRAN model of the complete forward rotor transmission housing for the Boeing Vertol CH-47 helicopter was developed and applied to reduce transmission vibration/noise at its source. In addition to a description of the model, a technique for vibration/noise prediction and reduction is outlined. Also included are the dynamic response as predicted by NASTRAN, test data, the use of strain energy methods to optimize the housing for minimum vibration/noise, and determination of design modifications which will be manufactured and tested. The techniques presented are not restricted to helicopters but are applicable to any power transmission system. The transmission housing model developed can be used further to evaluate static and dynamic stresses, thermal distortions, deflections and load paths, fail-safety/vulnerability, and composite materials.

Toward superconducting critical current by design

DOE PAGES

Sadovskyy, Ivan A.; Jia, Ying; Leroux, Maxime; ...

2016-03-31

The interaction of vortex matter with defects in applied superconductors directly determines their current carrying capacity. Defects range from chemically grown nanostructures and crystalline imperfections to the layered structure of the material itself. The vortex-defect interactions are non-additive in general, leading to complex dynamic behavior that has proven difficult to capture in analytical models. With recent rapid progress in computational powers, a new paradigm has emerged that aims at simulation assisted design of defect structures with predictable ‘critical-current-by-design’: analogous to the materials genome concept of predicting stable materials structures of interest. We demonstrate the feasibility of this paradigm by combiningmore » large-scale time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau numerical simulations with experiments on commercial high temperature superconductor (HTS) containing well-controlled correlated defects.« less

Projected electric power demands for the Potomac Electric Power Company

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilson, J.W.

1975-07-01

Included are chapters on the background of the Potomac Electric Power Company, forecasting future power demand, demand modeling, accuracy of market predictions, and total power system requirements. (DG)

Contribution of vertical strength and power to sprint performance in young male athletes.

PubMed

Meylan, C M P; Cronin, J; Oliver, J L; Hopkins, W G; Pinder, S

2014-08-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the possible contribution of 1RM leg-press strength and jump peak power to 20-m sprint time in young athletes in three maturity groups based on age relative to predicted age of peak height velocity (PHV): Pre (- 2.5 to -1.0 years; n=25), Mid (- 1.0 to 0.5 years; n=26) and Post (0.5 to 2.0 years; n=15). Allometric scaling factors, representing percent difference in 20-m time per percent difference in strength and peak power, were derived by linear regression and were similar in the three maturity groups (-0.16%/% and -0.20%/% for strength and peak power, respectively). The moderate increase in sprint performance Pre to Mid PHV (5.7%) reduced to small (1.9%) and trivial but unclear (0.9%) magnitudes after adjustment for 1RM and peak power, while the moderate increase Mid to Post PHV (4.6%) were still moderate (3.4 and 3.0%) after adjustment. Thus percent differences in strength or power explained most of the maturity-related improvements in sprint performance before PHV age but only some improvements after PHV age. Factors in addition to strength and power should be identified and monitored for development of speed in athletes during puberty. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Power law behavior of RR-interval variability in healthy middle-aged persons, patients with recent acute myocardial infarction, and patients with heart transplants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bigger, J. T. Jr; Steinman, R. C.; Rolnitzky, L. M.; Fleiss, J. L.; Albrecht, P.; Cohen, R. J.

1996-01-01

BACKGROUND. The purposes of the present study were (1) to establish normal values for the regression of log(power) on log(frequency) for, RR-interval fluctuations in healthy middle-aged persons, (2) to determine the effects of myocardial infarction on the regression of log(power) on log(frequency), (3) to determine the effect of cardiac denervation on the regression of log(power) on log(frequency), and (4) to assess the ability of power law regression parameters to predict death after myocardial infarction. METHODS AND RESULTS. We studied three groups: (1) 715 patients with recent myocardial infarction; (2) 274 healthy persons age and sex matched to the infarct sample; and (3) 19 patients with heart transplants. Twenty-four-hour RR-interval power spectra were computed using fast Fourier transforms and log(power) was regressed on log(frequency) between 10(-4) and 10(-2) Hz. There was a power law relation between log(power) and log(frequency). That is, the function described a descending straight line that had a slope of approximately -1 in healthy subjects. For the myocardial infarction group, the regression line for log(power) on log(frequency) was shifted downward and had a steeper negative slope (-1.15). The transplant (denervated) group showed a larger downward shift in the regression line and a much steeper negative slope (-2.08). The correlation between traditional power spectral bands and slope was weak, and that with log(power) at 10(-4) Hz was only moderate. Slope and log(power) at 10(-4) Hz were used to predict mortality and were compared with the predictive value of traditional power spectral bands. Slope and log(power) at 10(-4) Hz were excellent predictors of all-cause mortality or arrhythmic death. To optimize the prediction of death, we calculated a log(power) intercept that was uncorrelated with the slope of the power law regression line. We found that the combination of slope and zero-correlation log(power) was an outstanding predictor, with a relative risk of > 10, and was better than any combination of the traditional power spectral bands. The combination of slope and log(power) at 10(-4) Hz also was an excellent predictor of death after myocardial infarction. CONCLUSIONS. Myocardial infarction or denervation of the heart causes a steeper slope and decreased height of the power law regression relation between log(power) and log(frequency) of RR-interval fluctuations. Individually and, especially, combined, the power law regression parameters are excellent predictors of death of any cause or arrhythmic death and predict these outcomes better than the traditional power spectral bands.

Experimental validation of finite element and boundary element methods for predicting structural vibration and radiated noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seybert, A. F.; Wu, T. W.; Wu, X. F.

1994-01-01

This research report is presented in three parts. In the first part, acoustical analyses were performed on modes of vibration of the housing of a transmission of a gear test rig developed by NASA. The modes of vibration of the transmission housing were measured using experimental modal analysis. The boundary element method (BEM) was used to calculate the sound pressure and sound intensity on the surface of the housing and the radiation efficiency of each mode. The radiation efficiency of each of the transmission housing modes was then compared to theoretical results for a finite baffled plate. In the second part, analytical and experimental validation of methods to predict structural vibration and radiated noise are presented. A rectangular box excited by a mechanical shaker was used as a vibrating structure. Combined finite element method (FEM) and boundary element method (BEM) models of the apparatus were used to predict the noise level radiated from the box. The FEM was used to predict the vibration, while the BEM was used to predict the sound intensity and total radiated sound power using surface vibration as the input data. Vibration predicted by the FEM model was validated by experimental modal analysis; noise predicted by the BEM was validated by measurements of sound intensity. Three types of results are presented for the total radiated sound power: sound power predicted by the BEM model using vibration data measured on the surface of the box; sound power predicted by the FEM/BEM model; and sound power measured by an acoustic intensity scan. In the third part, the structure used in part two was modified. A rib was attached to the top plate of the structure. The FEM and BEM were then used to predict structural vibration and radiated noise respectively. The predicted vibration and radiated noise were then validated through experimentation.

Program Predicts Nonlinear Inverter Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Al-Ayoubi, R. R.; Oepomo, T. S.

1985-01-01

Program developed for ac power distribution system on Shuttle orbiter predicts total load on inverters and node voltages at each of line replaceable units (LRU's). Mathematical model simulates inverter performance at each change of state in power distribution system.

Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to predict CI engine parameters fueled with nano-particles additive to diesel fuel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghanbari, M.; Najafi, G.; Ghobadian, B.; Mamat, R.; Noor, M. M.; Moosavian, A.

2015-12-01

This paper studies the use of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to predict the performance parameters and exhaust emissions of a diesel engine operating on nanodiesel blended fuels. In order to predict the engine parameters, the whole experimental data were randomly divided into training and testing data. For ANFIS modelling, Gaussian curve membership function (gaussmf) and 200 training epochs (iteration) were found to be optimum choices for training process. The results demonstrate that ANFIS is capable of predicting the diesel engine performance and emissions. In the experimental step, Carbon nano tubes (CNT) (40, 80 and 120 ppm) and nano silver particles (40, 80 and 120 ppm) with nanostructure were prepared and added as additive to the diesel fuel. Six cylinders, four-stroke diesel engine was fuelled with these new blended fuels and operated at different engine speeds. Experimental test results indicated the fact that adding nano particles to diesel fuel, increased diesel engine power and torque output. For nano-diesel it was found that the brake specific fuel consumption (bsfc) was decreased compared to the net diesel fuel. The results proved that with increase of nano particles concentrations (from 40 ppm to 120 ppm) in diesel fuel, CO2 emission increased. CO emission in diesel fuel with nano-particles was lower significantly compared to pure diesel fuel. UHC emission with silver nano-diesel blended fuel decreased while with fuels that contains CNT nano particles increased. The trend of NOx emission was inverse compared to the UHC emission. With adding nano particles to the blended fuels, NOx increased compared to the net diesel fuel. The tests revealed that silver & CNT nano particles can be used as additive in diesel fuel to improve combustion of the fuel and reduce the exhaust emissions significantly.

A novel method for predicting the power outputs of wave energy converters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yingguang

2018-03-01

This paper focuses on realistically predicting the power outputs of wave energy converters operating in shallow water nonlinear waves. A heaving two-body point absorber is utilized as a specific calculation example, and the generated power of the point absorber has been predicted by using a novel method (a nonlinear simulation method) that incorporates a second order random wave model into a nonlinear dynamic filter. It is demonstrated that the second order random wave model in this article can be utilized to generate irregular waves with realistic crest-trough asymmetries, and consequently, more accurate generated power can be predicted by subsequently solving the nonlinear dynamic filter equation with the nonlinearly simulated second order waves as inputs. The research findings demonstrate that the novel nonlinear simulation method in this article can be utilized as a robust tool for ocean engineers in their design, analysis and optimization of wave energy converters.

Novel Multiscale Modeling Tool Applied to Pseudomonas aeruginosa Biofilm Formation

PubMed Central

Biggs, Matthew B.; Papin, Jason A.

2013-01-01

Multiscale modeling is used to represent biological systems with increasing frequency and success. Multiscale models are often hybrids of different modeling frameworks and programming languages. We present the MATLAB-NetLogo extension (MatNet) as a novel tool for multiscale modeling. We demonstrate the utility of the tool with a multiscale model of Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilm formation that incorporates both an agent-based model (ABM) and constraint-based metabolic modeling. The hybrid model correctly recapitulates oxygen-limited biofilm metabolic activity and predicts increased growth rate via anaerobic respiration with the addition of nitrate to the growth media. In addition, a genome-wide survey of metabolic mutants and biofilm formation exemplifies the powerful analyses that are enabled by this computational modeling tool. PMID:24147108

Novel multiscale modeling tool applied to Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilm formation.

PubMed

Biggs, Matthew B; Papin, Jason A

2013-01-01

Multiscale modeling is used to represent biological systems with increasing frequency and success. Multiscale models are often hybrids of different modeling frameworks and programming languages. We present the MATLAB-NetLogo extension (MatNet) as a novel tool for multiscale modeling. We demonstrate the utility of the tool with a multiscale model of Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilm formation that incorporates both an agent-based model (ABM) and constraint-based metabolic modeling. The hybrid model correctly recapitulates oxygen-limited biofilm metabolic activity and predicts increased growth rate via anaerobic respiration with the addition of nitrate to the growth media. In addition, a genome-wide survey of metabolic mutants and biofilm formation exemplifies the powerful analyses that are enabled by this computational modeling tool.

Core Noise - Increasing Importance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hultgren, Lennart S.

2011-01-01

This presentation is a technical summary of and outlook for NASA-internal and NASA-sponsored external research on core (combustor and turbine) noise funded by the Fundamental Aeronautics Program Subsonic Fixed Wing (SFW) Project. Sections of the presentation cover: the SFW system-level noise metrics for the 2015, 2020, and 2025 timeframes; turbofan design trends and their aeroacoustic implications; the emerging importance of core noise and its relevance to the SFW Reduced-Perceived-Noise Technical Challenge; and the current research activities in the core-noise area, with additional details given about the development of a high-fidelity combustor-noise prediction capability as well as activities supporting the development of improved reduced-order, physics-based models for combustor-noise prediction. The need for benchmark data for validation of high-fidelity and modeling work and the value of a potential future diagnostic facility for testing of core-noise-reduction concepts are indicated. The NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Program has the principal objective of overcoming today's national challenges in air transportation. The SFW Reduced-Perceived-Noise Technical Challenge aims to develop concepts and technologies to dramatically reduce the perceived aircraft noise outside of airport boundaries. This reduction of aircraft noise is critical to enabling the anticipated large increase in future air traffic. Noise generated in the jet engine core, by sources such as the compressor, combustor, and turbine, can be a significant contribution to the overall noise signature at low-power conditions, typical of approach flight. At high engine power during takeoff, jet and fan noise have traditionally dominated over core noise. However, current design trends and expected technological advances in engine-cycle design as well as noise-reduction methods are likely to reduce non-core noise even at engine-power points higher than approach. In addition, future low-emission combustor designs could increase the combustion-noise component. The trend towards high-power-density cores also means that the noise generated in the low-pressure turbine will likely increase. Consequently, the combined result from these emerging changes will be to elevate the overall importance of turbomachinery core noise, which will need to be addressed in order to meet future noise goals.

The complex contribution of sociodemographics to decision-making power in gay male couples

PubMed Central

Perry, Nicholas S.; Huebner, David M.; Baucom, Brian R. W.; Hoff, Colleen C.

2016-01-01

Relationship power is an important dyadic construct in close relationships that is associated with relationship health and partner’s individual health. Understanding what predicts power in heterosexual couples has proven difficult, and even less is known about gay couples. Resource models of power posit that demographic characteristics associated with social status (e.g., age, income) confer power within the relationship, which in turn shapes relationship outcomes. We tested this model in a sample of gay male couples (N=566 couples), and extended it by examining race and HIV status. Multilevel modeling was used to test associations between demographic bases of power and decision-making power. We also examined relative associations among demographic bases and decision-making power with relationship satisfaction, given the literature on power imbalances and overall relationship functioning. Results showed that individual income was positively associated with decision-making power, as was participant’s HIV status, with HIV-positive men reporting greater power. Age differences within the relationship interacted with relationship length to predict decision-making power, but not satisfaction. HIV-concordant positive couples were less satisfied than concordant negative couples. Higher power partners were less satisfied than lower power partners. Demographic factors contributing to decision-making power among same-sex male couples appear to share some similarities with heterosexual couples (e.g., income is associated with power), as well as have unique features (e.g., HIV status influences power). However, these same demographics did not reliably predict relationship satisfaction in the manner that existing power theories suggest. Findings indicate important considerations for theories of power among same-sex male couples. PMID:27606937

Potential climatic impacts and reliability of large-scale offshore wind farms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chien; Prinn, Ronald G.

2011-04-01

The vast availability of wind power has fueled substantial interest in this renewable energy source as a potential near-zero greenhouse gas emission technology for meeting future world energy needs while addressing the climate change issue. However, in order to provide even a fraction of the estimated future energy needs, a large-scale deployment of wind turbines (several million) is required. The consequent environmental impacts, and the inherent reliability of such a large-scale usage of intermittent wind power would have to be carefully assessed, in addition to the need to lower the high current unit wind power costs. Our previous study (Wang and Prinn 2010 Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10 2053) using a three-dimensional climate model suggested that a large deployment of wind turbines over land to meet about 10% of predicted world energy needs in 2100 could lead to a significant temperature increase in the lower atmosphere over the installed regions. A global-scale perturbation to the general circulation patterns as well as to the cloud and precipitation distribution was also predicted. In the later study reported here, we conducted a set of six additional model simulations using an improved climate model to further address the potential environmental and intermittency issues of large-scale deployment of offshore wind turbines for differing installation areas and spatial densities. In contrast to the previous land installation results, the offshore wind turbine installations are found to cause a surface cooling over the installed offshore regions. This cooling is due principally to the enhanced latent heat flux from the sea surface to lower atmosphere, driven by an increase in turbulent mixing caused by the wind turbines which was not entirely offset by the concurrent reduction of mean wind kinetic energy. We found that the perturbation of the large-scale deployment of offshore wind turbines to the global climate is relatively small compared to the case of land-based installations. However, the intermittency caused by the significant seasonal wind variations over several major offshore sites is substantial, and demands further options to ensure the reliability of large-scale offshore wind power. The method that we used to simulate the offshore wind turbine effect on the lower atmosphere involved simply increasing the ocean surface drag coefficient. While this method is consistent with several detailed fine-scale simulations of wind turbines, it still needs further study to ensure its validity. New field observations of actual wind turbine arrays are definitely required to provide ultimate validation of the model predictions presented here.

Techniques for the Enhancement of Linear Predictive Speech Coding in Adverse Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wrench, Alan A.

Available from UMI in association with The British Library. Requires signed TDF. The Linear Prediction model was first applied to speech two and a half decades ago. Since then it has been the subject of intense research and continues to be one of the principal tools in the analysis of speech. Its mathematical tractability makes it a suitable subject for study and its proven success in practical applications makes the study worthwhile. The model is known to be unsuited to speech corrupted by background noise. This has led many researchers to investigate ways of enhancing the speech signal prior to Linear Predictive analysis. In this thesis this body of work is extended. The chosen application is low bit-rate (2.4 kbits/sec) speech coding. For this task the performance of the Linear Prediction algorithm is crucial because there is insufficient bandwidth to encode the error between the modelled speech and the original input. A review of the fundamentals of Linear Prediction and an independent assessment of the relative performance of methods of Linear Prediction modelling are presented. A new method is proposed which is fast and facilitates stability checking, however, its stability is shown to be unacceptably poorer than existing methods. A novel supposition governing the positioning of the analysis frame relative to a voiced speech signal is proposed and supported by observation. The problem of coding noisy speech is examined. Four frequency domain speech processing techniques are developed and tested. These are: (i) Combined Order Linear Prediction Spectral Estimation; (ii) Frequency Scaling According to an Aural Model; (iii) Amplitude Weighting Based on Perceived Loudness; (iv) Power Spectrum Squaring. These methods are compared with the Recursive Linearised Maximum a Posteriori method. Following on from work done in the frequency domain, a time domain implementation of spectrum squaring is developed. In addition, a new method of power spectrum estimation is developed based on the Minimum Variance approach. This new algorithm is shown to be closely related to Linear Prediction but produces slightly broader spectral peaks. Spectrum squaring is applied to both the new algorithm and standard Linear Prediction and their relative performance is assessed. (Abstract shortened by UMI.).

Mentoring Support and Power: A Three Year Predictive Field Study on Protege Networking and Career Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blickle, Gerhard; Witzki, Alexander H.; Schneider, Paula B.

2009-01-01

Career success of early employees was analyzed from a power perspective and a developmental network perspective. In a predictive field study with 112 employees mentoring support and mentors' power were assessed in the first wave, employees' networking was assessed after two years, and career success (i.e. income and hierarchical position) and…

An Analysis Pipeline with Statistical and Visualization-Guided Knowledge Discovery for Michigan-Style Learning Classifier Systems

PubMed Central

Urbanowicz, Ryan J.; Granizo-Mackenzie, Ambrose; Moore, Jason H.

2014-01-01

Michigan-style learning classifier systems (M-LCSs) represent an adaptive and powerful class of evolutionary algorithms which distribute the learned solution over a sizable population of rules. However their application to complex real world data mining problems, such as genetic association studies, has been limited. Traditional knowledge discovery strategies for M-LCS rule populations involve sorting and manual rule inspection. While this approach may be sufficient for simpler problems, the confounding influence of noise and the need to discriminate between predictive and non-predictive attributes calls for additional strategies. Additionally, tests of significance must be adapted to M-LCS analyses in order to make them a viable option within fields that require such analyses to assess confidence. In this work we introduce an M-LCS analysis pipeline that combines uniquely applied visualizations with objective statistical evaluation for the identification of predictive attributes, and reliable rule generalizations in noisy single-step data mining problems. This work considers an alternative paradigm for knowledge discovery in M-LCSs, shifting the focus from individual rules to a global, population-wide perspective. We demonstrate the efficacy of this pipeline applied to the identification of epistasis (i.e., attribute interaction) and heterogeneity in noisy simulated genetic association data. PMID:25431544

The role of self-identity in predicting fruit and vegetable intake.

PubMed

Carfora, V; Caso, D; Conner, M

2016-11-01

This research investigated whether the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) with the addition of self-identity could predict fruit and vegetable intake when controlling for past behavior. Previous research had demonstrated the efficacy of TPB to predict intention and behavior in relation to food choice and the additional power of self-identity, but had failed assess the effects of self-identity while controlling for past behavior. At baseline (N = 210) TPB components and past behavior in relation to fruit and vegetable consumption plus self-identity as a healthy eater were measured by questionnaire in a sample of university students. At time 1, 4 weeks later, self-reported fruit and vegetable consumption was measured. Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) indicated attitude, PBC and self-identity to be significant predictors of intention (subjective norm and past behavior were not significant). Intention, self-identity and past behavior were direct predictors of behavior. The current findings support the independent effect of self-identity as a healthy eater on both intentions and future behaviour when controlling for TPB variables and also past behavior. The discussion considers the importance of self-identity in changing intentions and behavior for behaviors such as fruit and vegetable consumption. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Plant hydraulics improves and topography mediates prediction of aspen mortality in southwestern USA.

PubMed

Tai, Xiaonan; Mackay, D Scott; Anderegg, William R L; Sperry, John S; Brooks, Paul D

2017-01-01

Elevated forest mortality has been attributed to climate change-induced droughts, but prediction of spatial mortality patterns remains challenging. We evaluated whether introducing plant hydraulics and topographic convergence-induced soil moisture variation to land surface models (LSM) can help explain spatial patterns of mortality. A scheme predicting plant hydraulic safety loss from soil moisture was developed using field measurements and a plant physiology-hydraulics model, TREES. The scheme was upscaled to Populus tremuloides forests across Colorado, USA, using LSM-modeled and topography-mediated soil moisture, respectively. The spatial patterns of hydraulic safety loss were compared against aerial surveyed mortality. Incorporating hydraulic safety loss raised the explanatory power of mortality by 40% compared to LSM-modeled soil moisture. Topographic convergence was mostly influential in suppressing mortality in low and concave areas, explaining an additional 10% of the variations in mortality for those regions. Plant hydraulics integrated water stress along the soil-plant continuum and was more closely tied to plant physiological response to drought. In addition to the well-recognized topo-climate influence due to elevation and aspect, we found evidence that topographic convergence mediates tree mortality in certain parts of the landscape that are low and convergent, likely through influences on plant-available water. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

An analytical study for the design of advanced rotor airfoils

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kemp, L. D.

1973-01-01

A theoretical study has been conducted to design and evaluate two airfoils for helicopter rotors. The best basic shape, designed with a transonic hodograph design method, was modified to meet subsonic criteria. One airfoil had an additional constraint for low pitching-moment at the transonic design point. Airfoil characteristics were predicted. Results of a comparative analysis of helicopter performance indicate that the new airfoils will produce reduced rotor power requirements compared to the NACA 0012. The hodograph design method, written in CDC Algol, is listed and described.

Yet More Lessons From Complexity. Unity the key for Peace.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puente, C. E.

2004-12-01

The last few decades have witnessed the development of a host of ideas aimed at understanding and predicting nature's ever present complexity. It is shown that such a work provides, through its detailed study of order and disorder, a suitable framework for visualizing the dynamics and consequences of mankind's ever present divisive traits. Specifically, this work explains how recent universal results pertaining to power-laws, self-organized criticality and space-filling transformations provide additional and pertinent reminders that point us to unity as an essential element for us to achieve peace.

Ensemble positive unlabeled learning for disease gene identification.

PubMed

Yang, Peng; Li, Xiaoli; Chua, Hon-Nian; Kwoh, Chee-Keong; Ng, See-Kiong

2014-01-01

An increasing number of genes have been experimentally confirmed in recent years as causative genes to various human diseases. The newly available knowledge can be exploited by machine learning methods to discover additional unknown genes that are likely to be associated with diseases. In particular, positive unlabeled learning (PU learning) methods, which require only a positive training set P (confirmed disease genes) and an unlabeled set U (the unknown candidate genes) instead of a negative training set N, have been shown to be effective in uncovering new disease genes in the current scenario. Using only a single source of data for prediction can be susceptible to bias due to incompleteness and noise in the genomic data and a single machine learning predictor prone to bias caused by inherent limitations of individual methods. In this paper, we propose an effective PU learning framework that integrates multiple biological data sources and an ensemble of powerful machine learning classifiers for disease gene identification. Our proposed method integrates data from multiple biological sources for training PU learning classifiers. A novel ensemble-based PU learning method EPU is then used to integrate multiple PU learning classifiers to achieve accurate and robust disease gene predictions. Our evaluation experiments across six disease groups showed that EPU achieved significantly better results compared with various state-of-the-art prediction methods as well as ensemble learning classifiers. Through integrating multiple biological data sources for training and the outputs of an ensemble of PU learning classifiers for prediction, we are able to minimize the potential bias and errors in individual data sources and machine learning algorithms to achieve more accurate and robust disease gene predictions. In the future, our EPU method provides an effective framework to integrate the additional biological and computational resources for better disease gene predictions.

Pretreatment Nomogram to Predict the Risk of Acute Urinary Retention After I-125 Prostate Brachytherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roeloffzen, Ellen M., E-mail: e.m.a.roeloffzen@umcutrecht.nl; Vulpen, Marco van; Battermann, Jan J.

Purpose: Acute urinary retention (AUR) after iodine-125 (I-125) prostate brachytherapy negatively influences long-term quality of life and therefore should be prevented. We aimed to develop a nomogram to preoperatively predict the risk of AUR. Methods: Using the preoperative data of 714 consecutive patients who underwent I-125 prostate brachytherapy between 2005 and 2008 at our department, we modeled the probability of AUR. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to assess the predictive ability of a set of pretreatment predictors and the additional value of a new risk factor (the extent of prostate protrusion into the bladder). The performance of the finalmore » model was assessed with calibration and discrimination measures. Results: Of the 714 patients, 57 patients (8.0%) developed AUR after implantation. Multivariate analysis showed that the combination of prostate volume, IPSS score, neoadjuvant hormonal treatment and the extent of prostate protrusion contribute to the prediction of AUR. The discriminative value (receiver operator characteristic area, ROC) of the basic model (including prostate volume, International Prostate Symptom Score, and neoadjuvant hormonal treatment) to predict the development of AUR was 0.70. The addition of prostate protrusion significantly increased the discriminative power of the model (ROC 0.82). Calibration of this final model was good. The nomogram showed that among patients with a low sum score (<18 points), the risk of AUR was only 0%-5%. However, in patients with a high sum score (>35 points), the risk of AUR was more than 20%. Conclusion: This nomogram is a useful tool for physicians to predict the risk of AUR after I-125 prostate brachytherapy. The nomogram can aid in individualized treatment decision-making and patient counseling.« less

Prediction of radiofrequency ablation lesion formation using a novel temperature sensing technology incorporated in a force sensing catheter.

PubMed

Rozen, Guy; Ptaszek, Leon; Zilberman, Israel; Cordaro, Kevin; Heist, E Kevin; Beeckler, Christopher; Altmann, Andres; Ying, Zhang; Liu, Zhenjiang; Ruskin, Jeremy N; Govari, Assaf; Mansour, Moussa

2017-02-01

Real-time radiofrequency (RF) ablation lesion assessment is a major unmet need in cardiac electrophysiology. The purpose of this study was to assess whether improved temperature measurement using a novel thermocoupling (TC) technology combined with information derived from impedance change, contact force (CF) sensing, and catheter orientation allows accurate real-time prediction of ablation lesion formation. RF ablation lesions were delivered in the ventricles of 15 swine using a novel externally irrigated-tip catheter containing 6 miniature TC sensors in addition to force sensing technology. Ablation duration, power, irrigation rate, impedance drop, CF, and temperature from each sensor were recorded. The catheter "orientation factor" was calculated using measurements from the different TC sensors. Information derived from all the sources was included in a mathematical model developed to predict lesion depth and validated against histologic measurements. A total of 143 ablation lesions were delivered to the left ventricle (n = 74) and right ventricle (n = 69). Mean CF applied during the ablations was 14.34 ± 3.55g, and mean impedance drop achieved during the ablations was 17.5 ± 6.41 Ω. Mean difference between predicted and measured ablation lesion depth was 0.72 ± 0.56 mm. In the majority of lesions (91.6%), the difference between estimated and measured depth was ≤1.5 mm. Accurate real-time prediction of RF lesion depth is feasible using a novel ablation catheter-based system in conjunction with a mathematical prediction model, combining elaborate temperature measurements with information derived from catheter orientation, CF sensing, impedance change, and additional ablation parameters. Copyright © 2016 Heart Rhythm Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu Xiaoying; Ho, Shirley; Trac, Hy

We investigate machine learning (ML) techniques for predicting the number of galaxies (N{sub gal}) that occupy a halo, given the halo's properties. These types of mappings are crucial for constructing the mock galaxy catalogs necessary for analyses of large-scale structure. The ML techniques proposed here distinguish themselves from traditional halo occupation distribution (HOD) modeling as they do not assume a prescribed relationship between halo properties and N{sub gal}. In addition, our ML approaches are only dependent on parent halo properties (like HOD methods), which are advantageous over subhalo-based approaches as identifying subhalos correctly is difficult. We test two algorithms: supportmore » vector machines (SVM) and k-nearest-neighbor (kNN) regression. We take galaxies and halos from the Millennium simulation and predict N{sub gal} by training our algorithms on the following six halo properties: number of particles, M{sub 200}, {sigma}{sub v}, v{sub max}, half-mass radius, and spin. For Millennium, our predicted N{sub gal} values have a mean-squared error (MSE) of {approx}0.16 for both SVM and kNN. Our predictions match the overall distribution of halos reasonably well and the galaxy correlation function at large scales to {approx}5%-10%. In addition, we demonstrate a feature selection algorithm to isolate the halo parameters that are most predictive, a useful technique for understanding the mapping between halo properties and N{sub gal}. Lastly, we investigate these ML-based approaches in making mock catalogs for different galaxy subpopulations (e.g., blue, red, high M{sub star}, low M{sub star}). Given its non-parametric nature as well as its powerful predictive and feature selection capabilities, ML offers an interesting alternative for creating mock catalogs.« less

Forecasting Strategies for Predicting Peak Electric Load Days

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saxena, Harshit

Academic institutions spend thousands of dollars every month on their electric power consumption. Some of these institutions follow a demand charges pricing structure; here the amount a customer pays to the utility is decided based on the total energy consumed during the month, with an additional charge based on the highest average power load required by the customer over a moving window of time as decided by the utility. Therefore, it is crucial for these institutions to minimize the time periods where a high amount of electric load is demanded over a short duration of time. In order to reduce the peak loads and have more uniform energy consumption, it is imperative to predict when these peaks occur, so that appropriate mitigation strategies can be developed. The research work presented in this thesis has been conducted for Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT), where the demand charges are decided based on a 15 minute sliding window panned over the entire month. This case study makes use of different statistical and machine learning algorithms to develop a forecasting strategy for predicting the peak electric load days of the month. The proposed strategy was tested for a whole year starting May 2015 to April 2016 during which a total of 57 peak days were observed. The model predicted a total of 74 peak days during this period, 40 of these cases were true positives, hence achieving an accuracy level of 70 percent. The results obtained with the proposed forecasting strategy are promising and demonstrate an annual savings potential worth about $80,000 for a single submeter of RIT.

What variables are important in predicting bovine viral diarrhea virus? A random forest approach.

PubMed

Machado, Gustavo; Mendoza, Mariana Recamonde; Corbellini, Luis Gustavo

2015-07-24

Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) causes one of the most economically important diseases in cattle, and the virus is found worldwide. A better understanding of the disease associated factors is a crucial step towards the definition of strategies for control and eradication. In this study we trained a random forest (RF) prediction model and performed variable importance analysis to identify factors associated with BVDV occurrence. In addition, we assessed the influence of features selection on RF performance and evaluated its predictive power relative to other popular classifiers and to logistic regression. We found that RF classification model resulted in an average error rate of 32.03% for the negative class (negative for BVDV) and 36.78% for the positive class (positive for BVDV).The RF model presented area under the ROC curve equal to 0.702. Variable importance analysis revealed that important predictors of BVDV occurrence were: a) who inseminates the animals, b) number of neighboring farms that have cattle and c) rectal palpation performed routinely. Our results suggest that the use of machine learning algorithms, especially RF, is a promising methodology for the analysis of cross-sectional studies, presenting a satisfactory predictive power and the ability to identify predictors that represent potential risk factors for BVDV investigation. We examined classical predictors and found some new and hard to control practices that may lead to the spread of this disease within and among farms, mainly regarding poor or neglected reproduction management, which should be considered for disease control and eradication.

Relapse Risk Assessment for Schizophrenia Patients (RASP): A New Self-Report Screening Tool.

PubMed

Velligan, Dawn; Carpenter, William; Waters, Heidi C; Gerlanc, Nicole M; Legacy, Susan N; Ruetsch, Charles

2018-01-01

The Relapse Assessment for Schizophrenia Patients (RASP) was developed as a six-question self-report screener that measures indicators of Increased Anxiety and Social Isolation to assess patient stability and predict imminent relapse. This paper describes the development and psychometric characteristics of the RASP. The RASP and Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) were administered to patients with schizophrenia (n=166) three separate times. Chart data were collected on a subsample of patients (n=81). Psychometric analyses of RASP included tests of reliability, construct validity, and concurrent validity of items. Factors from RASP were correlated with subscales from PANSS (sensitivity to change and criterion validity [agreement between RASP and evidence of relapse]). Test-retest reliability returned modest to strong agreement at the item level and strong agreement at the questionnaire level. RASP showed good item response curves and internal consistency for the total instrument and within each of the two subscales (Increased Anxiety and Social Isolation). RASP Total Score and subscales showed good concurrent validity when correlated with PANSS Total Score, Positive, Excitement, and Anxiety subscales. RASP correctly predicted relapse in 67% of cases, with good specificity and negative predictive power and acceptable positive predictive power and sensitivity. The reliability and validity data presented support the use of RASP in settings where addition of a brief self-report assessment of relapse risk among patients with schizophrenia may be of benefit. Ease of use and scoring, and the ability to administer without clinical supervision allows for routine administration and assessment of relapse risk.

EEG and Neuronal Activity Topography analysis can predict effectiveness of shunt operation in idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus patients☆

PubMed Central

Aoki, Yasunori; Kazui, Hiroaki; Tanaka, Toshihisa; Ishii, Ryouhei; Wada, Tamiki; Ikeda, Shunichiro; Hata, Masahiro; Canuet, Leonides; Musha, Toshimitsu; Matsuzaki, Haruyasu; Imajo, Kaoru; Yoshiyama, Kenji; Yoshida, Tetsuhiko; Shimizu, Yoshiro; Nomura, Keiko; Iwase, Masao; Takeda, Masatoshi

2013-01-01

Idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH) is a neuropsychiatric syndrome characterized by gait disturbance, cognitive impairment and urinary incontinence that affect elderly individuals. These symptoms can potentially be reversed by cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) drainage or shunt operation. Prior to shunt operation, drainage of a small amount of CSF or “CSF tapping” is usually performed to ascertain the effect of the operation. Unfortunately, conventional neuroimaging methods such as single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), as well as electroencephalogram (EEG) power analysis seem to have failed to detect the effect of CSF tapping on brain function. In this work, we propose the use of Neuronal Activity Topography (NAT) analysis, which calculates normalized power variance (NPV) of EEG waves, to detect cortical functional changes induced by CSF tapping in iNPH. Based on clinical improvement by CSF tapping and shunt operation, we classified 24 iNPH patients into responders (N = 11) and nonresponders (N = 13), and performed both EEG power analysis and NAT analysis. We also assessed correlations between changes in NPV and changes in functional scores on gait and cognition scales before and after CSF tapping. NAT analysis showed that after CSF tapping there was a significant decrease in alpha NPV at the medial frontal cortex (FC) (Fz) in responders, while nonresponders exhibited an increase in alpha NPV at the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) (F8). Furthermore, we found correlations between cortical functional changes and clinical symptoms. In particular, delta and alpha NPV changes in the left-dorsal FC (F3) correlated with changes in gait status, while alpha and beta NPV changes in the right anterior prefrontal cortex (PFC) (Fp2) and left DLPFC (F7) as well as alpha NPV changes in the medial FC (Fz) correlated with changes in gait velocity. In addition, alpha NPV changes in the right DLPFC (F8) correlated with changes in WMS-R Mental Control scores in iNPH patients. An additional analysis combining the changes in values of alpha NPV over the left-dorsal FC (∆alpha-F3-NPV) and the medial FC (∆alpha-Fz-NPV) induced by CSF tapping (cut-off value of ∆alpha-F3-NPV + ∆alpha-Fz-NPV = 0), could correctly identified “shunt responders” and “shunt nonresponders” with a positive predictive value of 100% (10/10) and a negative predictive value of 66% (2/3). In contrast, EEG power spectral analysis showed no function related changes in cortical activity at the frontal cortex before and after CSF tapping. These results indicate that the clinical changes in gait and response suppression induced by CSF tapping in iNPH patients manifest as NPV changes, particularly in the alpha band, rather than as EEG power changes. Our findings suggest that NAT analysis can detect CSF tapping-induced functional changes in cortical activity, in a way that no other neuroimaging methods have been able to do so far, and can predict clinical response to shunt operation in patients with iNPH. PMID:24273735

EEG and Neuronal Activity Topography analysis can predict effectiveness of shunt operation in idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus patients.

PubMed

Aoki, Yasunori; Kazui, Hiroaki; Tanaka, Toshihisa; Ishii, Ryouhei; Wada, Tamiki; Ikeda, Shunichiro; Hata, Masahiro; Canuet, Leonides; Musha, Toshimitsu; Matsuzaki, Haruyasu; Imajo, Kaoru; Yoshiyama, Kenji; Yoshida, Tetsuhiko; Shimizu, Yoshiro; Nomura, Keiko; Iwase, Masao; Takeda, Masatoshi

2013-01-01

Idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH) is a neuropsychiatric syndrome characterized by gait disturbance, cognitive impairment and urinary incontinence that affect elderly individuals. These symptoms can potentially be reversed by cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) drainage or shunt operation. Prior to shunt operation, drainage of a small amount of CSF or "CSF tapping" is usually performed to ascertain the effect of the operation. Unfortunately, conventional neuroimaging methods such as single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), as well as electroencephalogram (EEG) power analysis seem to have failed to detect the effect of CSF tapping on brain function. In this work, we propose the use of Neuronal Activity Topography (NAT) analysis, which calculates normalized power variance (NPV) of EEG waves, to detect cortical functional changes induced by CSF tapping in iNPH. Based on clinical improvement by CSF tapping and shunt operation, we classified 24 iNPH patients into responders (N = 11) and nonresponders (N = 13), and performed both EEG power analysis and NAT analysis. We also assessed correlations between changes in NPV and changes in functional scores on gait and cognition scales before and after CSF tapping. NAT analysis showed that after CSF tapping there was a significant decrease in alpha NPV at the medial frontal cortex (FC) (Fz) in responders, while nonresponders exhibited an increase in alpha NPV at the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) (F8). Furthermore, we found correlations between cortical functional changes and clinical symptoms. In particular, delta and alpha NPV changes in the left-dorsal FC (F3) correlated with changes in gait status, while alpha and beta NPV changes in the right anterior prefrontal cortex (PFC) (Fp2) and left DLPFC (F7) as well as alpha NPV changes in the medial FC (Fz) correlated with changes in gait velocity. In addition, alpha NPV changes in the right DLPFC (F8) correlated with changes in WMS-R Mental Control scores in iNPH patients. An additional analysis combining the changes in values of alpha NPV over the left-dorsal FC (∆alpha-F3-NPV) and the medial FC (∆alpha-Fz-NPV) induced by CSF tapping (cut-off value of ∆alpha-F3-NPV + ∆alpha-Fz-NPV = 0), could correctly identified "shunt responders" and "shunt nonresponders" with a positive predictive value of 100% (10/10) and a negative predictive value of 66% (2/3). In contrast, EEG power spectral analysis showed no function related changes in cortical activity at the frontal cortex before and after CSF tapping. These results indicate that the clinical changes in gait and response suppression induced by CSF tapping in iNPH patients manifest as NPV changes, particularly in the alpha band, rather than as EEG power changes. Our findings suggest that NAT analysis can detect CSF tapping-induced functional changes in cortical activity, in a way that no other neuroimaging methods have been able to do so far, and can predict clinical response to shunt operation in patients with iNPH.

Unpredicted Pitch Modulates Beta Oscillatory Power during Rhythmic Entrainment to a Tone Sequence.

PubMed

Chang, Andrew; Bosnyak, Dan J; Trainor, Laurel J

2016-01-01

Extracting temporal regularities in external stimuli in order to predict upcoming events is an essential aspect of perception. Fluctuations in induced power of beta band (15-25 Hz) oscillations in auditory cortex are involved in predictive timing during rhythmic entrainment, but whether such fluctuations are affected by prediction in the spectral (frequency/pitch) domain remains unclear. We tested whether unpredicted (i.e., unexpected) pitches in a rhythmic tone sequence modulate beta band activity by recording EEG while participants passively listened to isochronous auditory oddball sequences with occasional unpredicted deviant pitches at two different presentation rates. The results showed that the power in low-beta (15-20 Hz) was larger around 200-300 ms following deviant tones compared to standard tones, and this effect was larger when the deviant tones were less predicted. Our results suggest that the induced beta power activities in auditory cortex are consistent with a role in sensory prediction of both "when" (timing) upcoming sounds will occur as well as the prediction precision error of "what" (spectral content in this case). We suggest, further, that both timing and content predictions may co-modulate beta oscillations via attention. These findings extend earlier work on neural oscillations by investigating the functional significance of beta oscillations for sensory prediction. The findings help elucidate the functional significance of beta oscillations in perception.

Prediction and measurement of the electromagnetic environment of high-power medium-wave and short-wave broadcast antennas in far field.

PubMed

Tang, Zhanghong; Wang, Qun; Ji, Zhijiang; Shi, Meiwu; Hou, Guoyan; Tan, Danjun; Wang, Pengqi; Qiu, Xianbo

2014-12-01

With the increasing city size, high-power electromagnetic radiation devices such as high-power medium-wave (MW) and short-wave (SW) antennas have been inevitably getting closer and closer to buildings, which resulted in the pollution of indoor electromagnetic radiation becoming worsened. To avoid such radiation exceeding the exposure limits by national standards, it is necessary to predict and survey the electromagnetic radiation by MW and SW antennas before constructing the buildings. In this paper, a modified prediction method for the far-field electromagnetic radiation is proposed and successfully applied to predict the electromagnetic environment of an area close to a group of typical high-power MW and SW wave antennas. Different from currently used simplified prediction method defined in the Radiation Protection Management Guidelines (H J/T 10. 3-1996), the new method in this article makes use of more information such as antennas' patterns to predict the electromagnetic environment. Therefore, it improves the prediction accuracy significantly by the new feature of resolution at different directions. At the end of this article, a comparison between the prediction data and the measured results is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed new method. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Unpredicted Pitch Modulates Beta Oscillatory Power during Rhythmic Entrainment to a Tone Sequence

PubMed Central

Chang, Andrew; Bosnyak, Dan J.; Trainor, Laurel J.

2016-01-01

Extracting temporal regularities in external stimuli in order to predict upcoming events is an essential aspect of perception. Fluctuations in induced power of beta band (15–25 Hz) oscillations in auditory cortex are involved in predictive timing during rhythmic entrainment, but whether such fluctuations are affected by prediction in the spectral (frequency/pitch) domain remains unclear. We tested whether unpredicted (i.e., unexpected) pitches in a rhythmic tone sequence modulate beta band activity by recording EEG while participants passively listened to isochronous auditory oddball sequences with occasional unpredicted deviant pitches at two different presentation rates. The results showed that the power in low-beta (15–20 Hz) was larger around 200–300 ms following deviant tones compared to standard tones, and this effect was larger when the deviant tones were less predicted. Our results suggest that the induced beta power activities in auditory cortex are consistent with a role in sensory prediction of both “when” (timing) upcoming sounds will occur as well as the prediction precision error of “what” (spectral content in this case). We suggest, further, that both timing and content predictions may co-modulate beta oscillations via attention. These findings extend earlier work on neural oscillations by investigating the functional significance of beta oscillations for sensory prediction. The findings help elucidate the functional significance of beta oscillations in perception. PMID:27014138

Model-based redesign of global transcription regulation

PubMed Central

Carrera, Javier; Rodrigo, Guillermo; Jaramillo, Alfonso

2009-01-01

Synthetic biology aims to the design or redesign of biological systems. In particular, one possible goal could be the rewiring of the transcription regulation network by exchanging the endogenous promoters. To achieve this objective, we have adapted current methods to the inference of a model based on ordinary differential equations that is able to predict the network response after a major change in its topology. Our procedure utilizes microarray data for training. We have experimentally validated our inferred global regulatory model in Escherichia coli by predicting transcriptomic profiles under new perturbations. We have also tested our methodology in silico by providing accurate predictions of the underlying networks from expression data generated with artificial genomes. In addition, we have shown the predictive power of our methodology by obtaining the gene profile in experimental redesigns of the E. coli genome, where rewiring the transcriptional network by means of knockouts of master regulators or by upregulating transcription factors controlled by different promoters. Our approach is compatible with most network inference methods, allowing to explore computationally future genome-wide redesign experiments in synthetic biology. PMID:19188257

Linearized Unsteady Aerodynamic Analysis of the Acoustic Response to Wake/Blade-Row Interaction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verdon, Joseph M.; Huff, Dennis L. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The three-dimensional, linearized Euler analysis, LINFLUX, is being developed to provide a comprehensive and efficient unsteady aerodynamic scheme for predicting the aeroacoustic and aeroelastic responses of axial-flow turbomachinery blading. LINFLUX couples a near-field, implicit, wave-split, finite-volume solution to far-field acoustic eigensolutions, to predict the aerodynamic responses of a blade row to prescribed structural and aerodynamic excitations. It is applied herein to predict the acoustic responses of a fan exit guide vane (FEGV) to rotor wake excitations. The intent is to demonstrate and assess the LINFLUX analysis via application to realistic wake/blade-row interactions. Numerical results are given for the unsteady pressure responses of the FEGV, including the modal pressure responses at inlet and exit. In addition, predictions for the modal and total acoustic power levels at the FEGV exit are compared with measurements. The present results indicate that the LINFLUX analysis should be useful in the aeroacoustic design process, and for understanding the three-dimensional flow physics relevant to blade-row noise generation and propagation.

Conformations of organophosphine oxides

DOE PAGES

De Silva, Nuwan; Zahariev, Federico; Hay, Benjamin P.; ...

2015-07-17

The conformations of a series of organophosphine oxides, OP(CH 3) 2R, where R = methyl, ethyl, isopropyl, tert-butyl, vinyl, and phenyl, are predicted using the MP2/cc-pVTZ level of theory. Comparison of potential energy surfaces for rotation about P–C bonds with crystal structure data reveals a strong correlation between predicted location and energetics of minima and histograms of dihedral angle distributions observed in the solid state. In addition, the most stable conformers are those that minimize the extent of steric repulsion between adjacent rotor substituents, and the torsional barriers tend to increase with the steric bulk of the rotating alkyl group.more » MM3 force field parameters were adjusted to fit the MP2 results, providing a fast and accurate model for predicting organophosphine oxides shapes—an essential part of understanding the chemistry of these compounds. As a result, the predictive power of the modified MM3 model was tested against MP2/cc-pVTZ conformations for triethylphosphine oxide, OP(CH 2CH 3) 3, and triphenylphosphine oxide, OP(Ph) 3.« less

The legal and ethical concerns that arise from using complex predictive analytics in health care.

PubMed

Cohen, I Glenn; Amarasingham, Ruben; Shah, Anand; Xie, Bin; Lo, Bernard

2014-07-01

Predictive analytics, or the use of electronic algorithms to forecast future events in real time, makes it possible to harness the power of big data to improve the health of patients and lower the cost of health care. However, this opportunity raises policy, ethical, and legal challenges. In this article we analyze the major challenges to implementing predictive analytics in health care settings and make broad recommendations for overcoming challenges raised in the four phases of the life cycle of a predictive analytics model: acquiring data to build the model, building and validating it, testing it in real-world settings, and disseminating and using it more broadly. For instance, we recommend that model developers implement governance structures that include patients and other stakeholders starting in the earliest phases of development. In addition, developers should be allowed to use already collected patient data without explicit consent, provided that they comply with federal regulations regarding research on human subjects and the privacy of health information. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Hadamard Kernel SVM with applications for breast cancer outcome predictions.

PubMed

Jiang, Hao; Ching, Wai-Ki; Cheung, Wai-Shun; Hou, Wenpin; Yin, Hong

2017-12-21

Breast cancer is one of the leading causes of deaths for women. It is of great necessity to develop effective methods for breast cancer detection and diagnosis. Recent studies have focused on gene-based signatures for outcome predictions. Kernel SVM for its discriminative power in dealing with small sample pattern recognition problems has attracted a lot attention. But how to select or construct an appropriate kernel for a specified problem still needs further investigation. Here we propose a novel kernel (Hadamard Kernel) in conjunction with Support Vector Machines (SVMs) to address the problem of breast cancer outcome prediction using gene expression data. Hadamard Kernel outperform the classical kernels and correlation kernel in terms of Area under the ROC Curve (AUC) values where a number of real-world data sets are adopted to test the performance of different methods. Hadamard Kernel SVM is effective for breast cancer predictions, either in terms of prognosis or diagnosis. It may benefit patients by guiding therapeutic options. Apart from that, it would be a valuable addition to the current SVM kernel families. We hope it will contribute to the wider biology and related communities.

Potential synergies and challenges in refining cellulosic biomass to fuels, chemicals, and power.

PubMed

Wyman, Charles E

2003-01-01

Lignocellulosic biomass such as agricultural and forestry residues and dedicated crops provides a low-cost and uniquely sustainable resource for production of many organic fuels and chemicals that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions, enhance energy security, improve the economy, dispose of problematic solid wastes, and improve air quality. A technoeconomic analysis of biologically processing lignocellulosics to ethanol is adapted to project the cost of making sugar intermediates for producing a range of such products, and sugar costs are predicted to drop with plant size as a result of economies of scale that outweigh increased biomass transport costs for facilities processing less than about 10,000 dry tons per day. Criteria are then reviewed for identifying promising chemicals in addition to fuel ethanol to make from these low cost cellulosic sugars. It is found that the large market for ethanol makes it possible to achieve economies of scale that reduce sugar costs, and coproducing chemicals promises greater profit margins or lower production costs for a given return on investment. Additionally, power can be sold at low prices without a significant impact on the selling price of sugars. However, manufacture of multiple products introduces additional technical, marketing, risk, scale-up, and other challenges that must be considered in refining of lignocellulosics.

A large-eddy simulation based power estimation capability for wind farms over complex terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senocak, I.; Sandusky, M.; Deleon, R.

2017-12-01

There has been an increasing interest in predicting wind fields over complex terrain at the micro-scale for resource assessment, turbine siting, and power forecasting. These capabilities are made possible by advancements in computational speed from a new generation of computing hardware, numerical methods and physics modelling. The micro-scale wind prediction model presented in this work is based on the large-eddy simulation paradigm with surface-stress parameterization. The complex terrain is represented using an immersed-boundary method that takes into account the parameterization of the surface stresses. Governing equations of incompressible fluid flow are solved using a projection method with second-order accurate schemes in space and time. We use actuator disk models with rotation to simulate the influence of turbines on the wind field. Data regarding power production from individual turbines are mostly restricted because of proprietary nature of the wind energy business. Most studies report percentage drop of power relative to power from the first row. There have been different approaches to predict power production. Some studies simply report available wind power in the upstream, some studies estimate power production using power curves available from turbine manufacturers, and some studies estimate power as torque multiplied by rotational speed. In the present work, we propose a black-box approach that considers a control volume around a turbine and estimate the power extracted from the turbine based on the conservation of energy principle. We applied our wind power prediction capability to wind farms over flat terrain such as the wind farm over Mower County, Minnesota and the Horns Rev offshore wind farm in Denmark. The results from these simulations are in good agreement with published data. We also estimate power production from a hypothetical wind farm in complex terrain region and identify potential zones suitable for wind power production.

Physics-based model for predicting the performance of a miniature wind turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, F. J.; Hu, J. Z.; Qiu, Y. P.; Yuan, F. G.

2011-04-01

A comprehensive physics-based model for predicting the performance of the miniature wind turbine (MWT) for power wireless sensor systems was proposed in this paper. An approximation of the power coefficient of the turbine rotor was made after the turbine rotor performance was measured. Incorporation of the approximation with the equivalent circuit model which was proposed according to the principles of the MWT, the overall system performance of the MWT was predicted. To demonstrate the prediction, the MWT system comprised of a 7.6 cm thorgren plastic propeller as turbine rotor and a DC motor as generator was designed and its performance was tested experimentally. The predicted output voltage, power and system efficiency are matched well with the tested results, which imply that this study holds promise in estimating and optimizing the performance of the MWT.

Impaired Midline Theta Power and Connectivity During Proactive Cognitive Control in Schizophrenia.

PubMed

Ryman, Sephira G; Cavanagh, James F; Wertz, Christopher J; Shaff, Nicholas A; Dodd, Andrew B; Stevens, Brigitte; Ling, Josef; Yeo, Ronald A; Hanlon, Faith M; Bustillo, Juan; Stromberg, Shannon F; Lin, Denise S; Abrams, Swala; Mayer, Andrew R

2018-05-25

Disrupted proactive cognitive control, a form of early selection and active goal maintenance, is hypothesized to underlie the broad cognitive deficits observed in patients with schizophrenia (SPs). Current research suggests that the disrupted activation within and connectivity between regions of the cognitive control network contribute to disrupted proactive cognitive control; however, no study has examined these mechanisms using an AX Continuous Performance Test task in schizophrenia. Twenty-six SPs (17 male subjects; mean age 34.46 ± 8.77 years) and 28 healthy control participants (HCs; 16 male subjects; mean age 31.43 ± 7.23 years) underwent an electroencephalogram while performing the AX Continuous Performance Test. To examine the extent of activation and level of connectivity within the cognitive control network, power, intertrial phase clustering, and intersite phase clustering metrics were calculated and analyzed. SPs exhibited expected general decrements in behavioral performance relative to HCs and a more selective deficit in conditions requiring proactive cognitive control. Additionally, SPs exhibited deficits in midline theta power and connectivity during proactive cognitive control trials. Specifically, HCs exhibited significantly greater theta power for B cues relative to A cues, whereas SPs exhibited no significant differences between A- and B-cue theta power. Additionally, differential theta connectivity patterns were observed in SPs and HCs. Behavioral measures of proactive cognitive control predicted functional outcomes in SPs. This study suggests that low-frequency midline theta activity is selectively disrupted during proactive cognitive control in SPs. The disrupted midline theta activity may reflect a failure of SPs to proactively recruit cognitive control processes. Copyright © 2018 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Observation of a rainbow of visible colors in a near infrared cascaded Raman fiber laser and its novel application as a diagnostic tool for length resolved spectral analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aparanji, Santosh; Balaswamy, V.; Arun, S.; Supradeepa, V. R.

2018-02-01

In this work, we report and analyse the surprising observation of a rainbow of visible colors, spanning 390nm to 620nm, in silica-based, Near Infrared, continuous-wave, cascaded Raman fiber lasers. The cascaded Raman laser is pumped at 1117nm at around 200W and at full power we obtain 100 W at 1480nm. With increasing pump power at 1117nm, the fiber constituting the Raman laser glows in various hues along its length. From spectroscopic analysis of the emitted visible light, it was identified to be harmonic and sum-frequency components of various locally propagating wavelength components. In addition to third harmonic components, surprisingly, even 2nd harmonic components were observed. Despite being a continuous-wave laser, we expect the phase-matching occurring between the core-propagating NIR light with the cladding-propagating visible wavelengths and the intensity fluctuations characteristic of Raman lasers to have played a major role in generation of visible light. In addition, this surprising generation of visible light provides us a powerful non-contact method to deduce the spectrum of light propagating in the fiber. Using static images of the fiber captured by a standard visible camera such as a DSLR, we demonstrate novel, image-processing based techniques to deduce the wavelength component propagating in the fiber at any given spatial location. This provides a powerful diagnostic tool for both length and power resolved spectral analysis in Raman fiber lasers. This helps accurate prediction of the optimal length of fiber required for complete and efficient conversion to a given Stokes wavelength.

Predicting the vibroacoustic response of satellite equipment panels.

PubMed

Conlon, S C; Hambric, S A

2003-03-01

Modern satellites are constructed of large, lightweight equipment panels that are strongly excited by acoustic pressures during launch. During design, performing vibroacoustic analyses to evaluate and ensure the integrity of the complex electronics mounted on the panels is critical. In this study the attached equipment is explicitly addressed and how its properties affect the panel responses is characterized. FEA and BEA methods are used to derive realistic parameters to input to a SEA hybrid model of a panel with multiple attachments. Specifically, conductance/modal density and radiation efficiency for nonhomogeneous panel structures with and without mass loading are computed. The validity of using the spatially averaged conductance of panels with irregular features for deriving the structure modal density is demonstrated. Maidanik's proposed method of modifying the traditional SEA input power is implemented, illustrating the importance of accounting for system internal couplings when calculating the external input power. The predictions using the SEA hybrid model agree with the measured data trends, and are found to be most sensitive to the assumed dynamic mass ratio (attachments/structure) and the attachment internal loss factor. Additional experimental and analytical investigations are recommended to better characterize dynamic masses, modal densities and loss factors.

Rotary engine performance limits predicted by a zero-dimensional model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartrand, Timothy A.; Willis, Edward A.

1992-01-01

A parametric study was performed to determine the performance limits of a rotary combustion engine. This study shows how well increasing the combustion rate, insulating, and turbocharging increase brake power and decrease fuel consumption. Several generalizations can be made from the findings. First, it was shown that the fastest combustion rate is not necessarily the best combustion rate. Second, several engine insulation schemes were employed for a turbocharged engine. Performance improved only for a highly insulated engine. Finally, the variability of turbocompounding and the influence of exhaust port shape were calculated. Rotary engines performance was predicted by an improved zero-dimensional computer model based on a model developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the 1980's. Independent variables in the study include turbocharging, manifold pressures, wall thermal properties, leakage area, and exhaust port geometry. Additions to the computer programs since its results were last published include turbocharging, manifold modeling, and improved friction power loss calculation. The baseline engine for this study is a single rotor 650 cc direct-injection stratified-charge engine with aluminum housings and a stainless steel rotor. Engine maps are provided for the baseline and turbocharged versions of the engine.

Tissue Chips to aid drug development and modeling for rare diseases

PubMed Central

Low, Lucie A.; Tagle, Danilo A.

2016-01-01

Introduction The technologies used to design, create and use microphysiological systems (MPS, “tissue chips” or “organs-on-chips”) have progressed rapidly in the last 5 years, and validation studies of the functional relevance of these platforms to human physiology, and response to drugs for individual model organ systems, are well underway. These studies are paving the way for integrated multi-organ systems that can model diseases and predict drug efficacy and toxicology of multiple organs in real-time, improving the potential for diagnostics and development of novel treatments of rare diseases in the future. Areas covered This review will briefly summarize the current state of tissue chip research and highlight model systems where these microfabricated (or bioengineered) devices are already being used to screen therapeutics, model disease states, and provide potential treatments in addition to helping elucidate the basic molecular and cellular phenotypes of rare diseases. Expert opinion Microphysiological systems hold great promise and potential for modeling rare disorders, as well as for their potential use to enhance the predictive power of new drug therapeutics, plus potentially increase the statistical power of clinical trials while removing the inherent risks of these trials in rare disease populations. PMID:28626620

Analysis of LH Launcher Arrays (Like the ITER One) Using the TOPLHA Code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maggiora, R.; Milanesio, D.; Vecchi, G.

2009-11-26

TOPLHA (Torino Polytechnic Lower Hybrid Antenna) code is an innovative tool for the 3D/1D simulation of Lower Hybrid (LH) antennas, i.e. accounting for realistic 3D waveguides geometry and for accurate 1D plasma models, and without restrictions on waveguide shape, including curvature. This tool provides a detailed performances prediction of any LH launcher, by computing the antenna scattering parameters, the current distribution, electric field maps and power spectra for any user-specified waveguide excitation. In addition, a fully parallelized and multi-cavity version of TOPLHA permits the analysis of large and complex waveguide arrays in a reasonable simulation time. A detailed analysis ofmore » the performances of the proposed ITER LH antenna geometry has been carried out, underlining the strong dependence of the antenna input parameters with respect to plasma conditions. A preliminary optimization of the antenna dimensions has also been accomplished. Electric current distribution on conductors, electric field distribution at the interface with plasma, and power spectra have been calculated as well. The analysis shows the strong capabilities of the TOPLHA code as a predictive tool and its usefulness to LH launcher arrays detailed design.« less

Comparison of ISS Power System Telemetry with Analytically Derived Data for Shadowed Cases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fincannon, H. James

2002-01-01

Accurate International Space Station (ISS) power prediction requires the quantification of solar array shadowing. Prior papers have discussed the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) ISS power system tool SPACE (System Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation) and its integrated shadowing algorithms. On-orbit telemetry has become available that permits the correlation of theoretical shadowing predictions with actual data. This paper documents the comparison of a shadowing metric (total solar array current) as derived from SPACE predictions and on-orbit flight telemetry data for representative significant shadowing cases. Images from flight video recordings and the SPACE computer program graphical output are used to illustrate the comparison. The accuracy of the SPACE shadowing capability is demonstrated for the cases examined.

The Irvine, Beatties, and Bresnahan (IBB) Forelimb Recovery Scale: An Assessment of Reliability and Validity

PubMed Central

Irvine, Karen-Amanda; Ferguson, Adam R.; Mitchell, Kathleen D.; Beattie, Stephanie B.; Lin, Amity; Stuck, Ellen D.; Huie, J. Russell; Nielson, Jessica L.; Talbott, Jason F.; Inoue, Tomoo; Beattie, Michael S.; Bresnahan, Jacqueline C.

2014-01-01

The IBB scale is a recently developed forelimb scale for the assessment of fine control of the forelimb and digits after cervical spinal cord injury [SCI; (1)]. The present paper describes the assessment of inter-rater reliability and face, concurrent and construct validity of this scale following SCI. It demonstrates that the IBB is a reliable and valid scale that is sensitive to severity of SCI and to recovery over time. In addition, the IBB correlates with other outcome measures and is highly predictive of biological measures of tissue pathology. Multivariate analysis using principal component analysis (PCA) demonstrates that the IBB is highly predictive of the syndromic outcome after SCI (2), and is among the best predictors of bio-behavioral function, based on strong construct validity. Altogether, the data suggest that the IBB, especially in concert with other measures, is a reliable and valid tool for assessing neurological deficits in fine motor control of the distal forelimb, and represents a powerful addition to multivariate outcome batteries aimed at documenting recovery of function after cervical SCI in rats. PMID:25071704

Prestimulus EEG Power Predicts Conscious Awareness But Not Objective Visual Performance

PubMed Central

Veniero, Domenica

2017-01-01

Abstract Prestimulus oscillatory neural activity has been linked to perceptual outcomes during performance of psychophysical detection and discrimination tasks. Specifically, the power and phase of low frequency oscillations have been found to predict whether an upcoming weak visual target will be detected or not. However, the mechanisms by which baseline oscillatory activity influences perception remain unclear. Recent studies suggest that the frequently reported negative relationship between α power and stimulus detection may be explained by changes in detection criterion (i.e., increased target present responses regardless of whether the target was present/absent) driven by the state of neural excitability, rather than changes in visual sensitivity (i.e., more veridical percepts). Here, we recorded EEG while human participants performed a luminance discrimination task on perithreshold stimuli in combination with single-trial ratings of perceptual awareness. Our aim was to investigate whether the power and/or phase of prestimulus oscillatory activity predict discrimination accuracy and/or perceptual awareness on a trial-by-trial basis. Prestimulus power (3–28 Hz) was inversely related to perceptual awareness ratings (i.e., higher ratings in states of low prestimulus power/high excitability) but did not predict discrimination accuracy. In contrast, prestimulus oscillatory phase did not predict awareness ratings or accuracy in any frequency band. These results provide evidence that prestimulus α power influences the level of subjective awareness of threshold visual stimuli but does not influence visual sensitivity when a decision has to be made regarding stimulus features. Hence, we find a clear dissociation between the influence of ongoing neural activity on conscious awareness and objective performance. PMID:29255794

Prediction and characterization of application power use in a high-performance computing environment

DOE PAGES

Bugbee, Bruce; Phillips, Caleb; Egan, Hilary; ...

2017-02-27

Power use in data centers and high-performance computing (HPC) facilities has grown in tandem with increases in the size and number of these facilities. Substantial innovation is needed to enable meaningful reduction in energy footprints in leadership-class HPC systems. In this paper, we focus on characterizing and investigating application-level power usage. We demonstrate potential methods for predicting power usage based on a priori and in situ characteristics. Lastly, we highlight a potential use case of this method through a simulated power-aware scheduler using historical jobs from a real scientific HPC system.

1/f neural noise and electrophysiological indices of contextual prediction in aging.

PubMed

Dave, S; Brothers, T A; Swaab, T Y

2018-07-15

Prediction of upcoming words during reading has been suggested to enhance the efficiency of discourse processing. Emerging models have postulated that predictive mechanisms require synchronous firing of neural networks, but to date, this relationship has been investigated primarily through oscillatory activity in narrow frequency bands. A recently-developed measure proposed to reflect broadband neural activity - and thereby synchronous neuronal firing - is 1/f neural noise extracted from EEG spectral power. Previous research has indicated that this measure of 1/f neural noise changes across the lifespan, and these neural changes predict age-related behavioral impairments in visual working memory. Using a cross-sectional sample of young and older adults, we examined age-related changes in 1/f neural noise and whether this measure predicted ERP correlates of successful lexical prediction during discourse comprehension. 1/f neural noise across two different language tasks revealed high within-subject correlations, indicating that this measure can provide a reliable index of individualized patterns of neural activation. In addition to age, 1/f noise was a significant predictor of N400 effects of successful lexical prediction; however, noise did not mediate age-related declines in other ERP effects. We discuss broader implications of these findings for theories of predictive processing, as well as potential applications of 1/f noise across research populations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.