Jet energy measurement and its systematic uncertainty in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

DOE PAGES

Aad, G.

2015-01-15

The jet energy scale (JES) and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector using proton–proton collision data with a centre-of-mass energy of \\(\\sqrt{s}=7\\) TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of \\(4.7\\) \\(\\,\\,\\text{ fb }^{-1}\\). Jets are reconstructed from energy deposits forming topological clusters of calorimeter cells using the anti-\\(k_{t}\\) algorithm with distance parameters \\(R=0.4\\) or \\(R=0.6\\), and are calibrated using MC simulations. A residual JES correction is applied to account for differences between data and MC simulations. This correction and its systematic uncertainty are estimated using a combination of in situ techniques exploiting the transversemore » momentum balance between a jet and a reference object such as a photon or a \\(Z\\) boson, for \\({20} \\le p_{\\mathrm {T}}^\\mathrm {jet}<{1000}\\, ~\\mathrm{GeV }\\) and pseudorapidities \\(|\\eta |<{4.5}\\). The effect of multiple proton–proton interactions is corrected for, and an uncertainty is evaluated using in situ techniques. The smallest JES uncertainty of less than 1 % is found in the central calorimeter region (\\(|\\eta |<{1.2}\\)) for jets with \\({55} \\le p_{\\mathrm {T}}^\\mathrm {jet}<{500}\\, ~\\mathrm{GeV }\\). For central jets at lower \\(p_{\\mathrm {T}}\\), the uncertainty is about 3 %. A consistent JES estimate is found using measurements of the calorimeter response of single hadrons in proton–proton collisions and test-beam data, which also provide the estimate for \\(p_{\\mathrm {T}}^\\mathrm {jet}> 1\\) TeV. The calibration of forward jets is derived from dijet \\(p_{\\mathrm {T}}\\) balance measurements. The resulting uncertainty reaches its largest value of 6 % for low-\\(p_{\\mathrm {T}}\\) jets at \\(|\\eta |=4.5\\). In addition, JES uncertainties due to specific event topologies, such as close-by jets or selections of event samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks or gluons, are also discussed. The magnitude of these uncertainties depends on the event sample used in a given physics analysis, but typically amounts to 0.5–3 %.« less

Mitigating Provider Uncertainty in Service Provision Contracts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Chris; van Moorsel, Aad

Uncertainty is an inherent property of open, distributed and multiparty systems. The viability of the mutually beneficial relationships which motivate these systems relies on rational decision-making by each constituent party under uncertainty. Service provision in distributed systems is one such relationship. Uncertainty is experienced by the service provider in his ability to deliver a service with selected quality level guarantees due to inherent non-determinism, such as load fluctuations and hardware failures. Statistical estimators utilized to model this non-determinism introduce additional uncertainty through sampling error. Inability of the provider to accurately model and analyze uncertainty in the quality level guarantees can result in the formation of sub-optimal service provision contracts. Emblematic consequences include loss of revenue, inefficient resource utilization and erosion of reputation and consumer trust. We propose a utility model for contract-based service provision to provide a systematic approach to optimal service provision contract formation under uncertainty. Performance prediction methods to enable the derivation of statistical estimators for quality level are introduced, with analysis of their resultant accuracy and cost.

Sensitivity Analysis of Expected Wind Extremes over the Northwestern Sahara and High Atlas Region.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Bustamante, E.; González-Rouco, F. J.; Navarro, J.

2017-12-01

A robust statistical framework in the scientific literature allows for the estimation of probabilities of occurrence of severe wind speeds and wind gusts, but does not prevent however from large uncertainties associated with the particular numerical estimates. An analysis of such uncertainties is thus required. A large portion of this uncertainty arises from the fact that historical observations are inherently shorter that the timescales of interest for the analysis of return periods. Additional uncertainties stem from the different choices of probability distributions and other aspects related to methodological issues or physical processes involved. The present study is focused on historical observations over the Ouarzazate Valley (Morocco) and in a high-resolution regional simulation of the wind in the area of interest. The aim is to provide extreme wind speed and wind gust return values and confidence ranges based on a systematic sampling of the uncertainty space for return periods up to 120 years.

Recent Results From MINERvA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patrick, Cheryl

The MINERvA detector is situated in Fermilab's NuMI beam, which provides neutrinos and antineutrinos in the 1-20 GeV range. It is designed to make precision cross-section measurements for scattering processes on various nuclei. These proceedings summarize the differential cross-section distributions measured for several different processes. Comparison of these with various models hints at additional nuclear effects not included in common simulations. These results will help constrain generators' nuclear models and reduce systematic uncertainties on their predictions. An accurate cross-section model, with minimal uncertainties, is vital to oscillation experiments.

The Significance of an Excess in a Counting Experiment: Assessing the Impact of Systematic Uncertainties and the Case with a Gaussian Background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vianello, Giacomo

2018-05-01

Several experiments in high-energy physics and astrophysics can be treated as on/off measurements, where an observation potentially containing a new source or effect (“on” measurement) is contrasted with a background-only observation free of the effect (“off” measurement). In counting experiments, the significance of the new source or effect can be estimated with a widely used formula from Li & Ma, which assumes that both measurements are Poisson random variables. In this paper we study three other cases: (i) the ideal case where the background measurement has no uncertainty, which can be used to study the maximum sensitivity that an instrument can achieve, (ii) the case where the background estimate b in the off measurement has an additional systematic uncertainty, and (iii) the case where b is a Gaussian random variable instead of a Poisson random variable. The latter case applies when b comes from a model fitted on archival or ancillary data, or from the interpolation of a function fitted on data surrounding the candidate new source/effect. Practitioners typically use a formula that is only valid when b is large and when its uncertainty is very small, while we derive a general formula that can be applied in all regimes. We also develop simple methods that can be used to assess how much an estimate of significance is sensitive to systematic uncertainties on the efficiency or on the background. Examples of applications include the detection of short gamma-ray bursts and of new X-ray or γ-ray sources. All the techniques presented in this paper are made available in a Python code that is ready to use.

Surrogate gas prediction model as a proxy for Δ14C-based measurements of fossil fuel-CO2.

PubMed

Coakley, Kevin J; Miller, John B; Montzka, Stephen A; Sweeney, Colm; Miller, Ben R

2016-06-27

The measured 14 C: 12 C isotopic ratio of atmospheric CO 2 (and its associated derived Δ 14 C value) is an ideal tracer for determination of the fossil fuel derived CO 2 enhancement contributing to any atmospheric CO 2 measurement ( C ff ). Given enough such measurements, independent top-down estimation of US fossil fuel-CO 2 emissions should be possible. However, the number of Δ 14 C measurements is presently constrained by cost, available sample volume, and availability of mass spectrometer measurement facilities. Δ 14 C is therefore measured in just a small fraction of samples obtained by ask air sampling networks around the world. Here, we develop a Projection Pursuit Regression (PPR) model to predict C ff as a function of multiple surrogate gases acquired within the NOAA/ESRL Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network (GGGRN). The surrogates consist of measured enhancements of various anthropogenic trace gases, including CO, SF 6 , and halo- and hydrocarbons acquired in vertical airborne sampling profiles near Cape May, NJ and Portsmouth, NH from 2005 through 2010. Model performance for these sites is quantified based on predicted values corresponding to test data excluded from the model building process. Chi-square hypothesis test analysis indicates that these predictions and corresponding observations are consistent given our uncertainty budget which accounts for random effects and one particular systematic effect. However, quantification of the combined uncertainty of the prediction due to all relevant systematic effects is difficult because of the limited range of the observations and their relatively high fractional uncertainties at the sampling sites considered here. To account for the possibility of additional systematic effects, we incorporate another component of uncertainty into our budget. Expanding the number of Δ 14 C measurements in the NOAA GGGRN and building new PPR models at additional sites would improve our understanding of uncertainties and potentially increase the number of C ff estimates by approximately a factor of three. Provided that these estimates are of comparable quality to Δ 14 C-based estimates, we expect an improved determination of fossil fuel-CO 2 emissions.

Systematic and statistical uncertainties in simulated r-process abundances due to uncertain nuclear masses

DOE PAGES

Surman, Rebecca; Mumpower, Matthew; McLaughlin, Gail

2017-02-27

Unknown nuclear masses are a major source of nuclear physics uncertainty for r-process nucleosynthesis calculations. Here we examine the systematic and statistical uncertainties that arise in r-process abundance predictions due to uncertainties in the masses of nuclear species on the neutron-rich side of stability. There is a long history of examining systematic uncertainties by the application of a variety of different mass models to r-process calculations. Here we expand upon such efforts by examining six DFT mass models, where we capture the full impact of each mass model by updating the other nuclear properties — including neutron capture rates, β-decaymore » lifetimes, and β-delayed neutron emission probabilities — that depend on the masses. Unlike systematic effects, statistical uncertainties in the r-process pattern have just begun to be explored. Here we apply a global Monte Carlo approach, starting from the latest FRDM masses and considering random mass variations within the FRDM rms error. Here, we find in each approach that uncertain nuclear masses produce dramatic uncertainties in calculated r-process yields, which can be reduced in upcoming experimental campaigns.« less

Systematic and statistical uncertainties in simulated r-process abundances due to uncertain nuclear masses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Surman, Rebecca; Mumpower, Matthew; McLaughlin, Gail

Unknown nuclear masses are a major source of nuclear physics uncertainty for r-process nucleosynthesis calculations. Here we examine the systematic and statistical uncertainties that arise in r-process abundance predictions due to uncertainties in the masses of nuclear species on the neutron-rich side of stability. There is a long history of examining systematic uncertainties by the application of a variety of different mass models to r-process calculations. Here we expand upon such efforts by examining six DFT mass models, where we capture the full impact of each mass model by updating the other nuclear properties — including neutron capture rates, β-decaymore » lifetimes, and β-delayed neutron emission probabilities — that depend on the masses. Unlike systematic effects, statistical uncertainties in the r-process pattern have just begun to be explored. Here we apply a global Monte Carlo approach, starting from the latest FRDM masses and considering random mass variations within the FRDM rms error. Here, we find in each approach that uncertain nuclear masses produce dramatic uncertainties in calculated r-process yields, which can be reduced in upcoming experimental campaigns.« less

Projecting future air pollution-related mortality under a changing climate: progress, uncertainties and research needs.

PubMed

Madaniyazi, Lina; Guo, Yuming; Yu, Weiwei; Tong, Shilu

2015-02-01

Climate change may affect mortality associated with air pollutants, especially for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Projection studies of such kind involve complicated modelling approaches with uncertainties. We conducted a systematic review of researches and methods for projecting future PM2.5-/O3-related mortality to identify the uncertainties and optimal approaches for handling uncertainty. A literature search was conducted in October 2013, using the electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 to September 2013. Fifteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most studies reported that an increase of climate change-induced PM2.5 and O3 may result in an increase in mortality. However, little research has been conducted in developing countries with high emissions and dense populations. Additionally, health effects induced by PM2.5 may dominate compared to those caused by O3, but projection studies of PM2.5-related mortality are fewer than those of O3-related mortality. There is a considerable variation in approaches of scenario-based projection researches, which makes it difficult to compare results. Multiple scenarios, models and downscaling methods have been used to reduce uncertainties. However, few studies have discussed what the main source of uncertainties is and which uncertainty could be most effectively reduced. Projecting air pollution-related mortality requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will significantly aid policymakers in efforts to manage potential impacts of PM2.5 and O3 on mortality in the context of climate change. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CFHTLenS revisited: assessing concordance with Planck including astrophysical systematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joudaki, Shahab; Blake, Chris; Heymans, Catherine; Choi, Ami; Harnois-Deraps, Joachim; Hildebrandt, Hendrik; Joachimi, Benjamin; Johnson, Andrew; Mead, Alexander; Parkinson, David; Viola, Massimo; van Waerbeke, Ludovic

2017-02-01

We investigate the impact of astrophysical systematics on cosmic shear cosmological parameter constraints from the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Lensing Survey (CFHTLenS) and the concordance with cosmic microwave background measurements by Planck. We present updated CFHTLenS cosmic shear tomography measurements extended to degree scales using a covariance calibrated by a new suite of N-body simulations. We analyse these measurements with a new model fitting pipeline, accounting for key systematic uncertainties arising from intrinsic galaxy alignments, baryonic effects in the non-linear matter power spectrum, and photometric redshift uncertainties. We examine the impact of the systematic degrees of freedom on the cosmological parameter constraints, both independently and jointly. When the systematic uncertainties are considered independently, the intrinsic alignment amplitude is the only degree of freedom that is substantially preferred by the data. When the systematic uncertainties are considered jointly, there is no consistently strong preference in favour of the more complex models. We quantify the level of concordance between the CFHTLenS and Planck data sets by employing two distinct data concordance tests, grounded in Bayesian evidence and information theory. We find that the two data concordance tests largely agree with one another and that the level of concordance between the CFHTLenS and Planck data sets is sensitive to the exact details of the systematic uncertainties included in our analysis, ranging from decisive discordance to substantial concordance as the treatment of the systematic uncertainties becomes more conservative. The least conservative scenario is the one most favoured by the cosmic shear data, but it is also the one that shows the greatest degree of discordance with Planck. The data and analysis code are publicly available at https://github.com/sjoudaki/cfhtlens_revisited.

New Assignment of Mass Values and Uncertainties to NIST Working Standards

PubMed Central

Davis, Richard S.

1990-01-01

For some time it had been suspected that values assigned to NIST working standards of mass were some 0.17 mg/kg larger than mass values based on artifacts representing mass in the International System of Units (SI). This relatively small offset, now confirmed, has had minimal scientific or technological significance. The discrepancy was removed on January 1, 1990. We document the history of the discrepancy, the studies which allow its removal, and the methods in place to limit its effect and prevent its recurrence. For routine calibrations, we believe that our working standards now have a long-term stability of 0.033 mg/kg (3σ) with respect to the national prototype kilograms of the United States. We provisionally admit an additional uncertainty of 0.09 mg/kg (3σ), systematic to all NIST mass measurements, which represents the possible offset of our primary standards from standards maintained by the Bureau International des Poids et Mesures (BIPM). This systematic uncertainty may be significantly reduced after analysis of results from the 3rd verification of national prototype kilograms, which is now underway. PMID:28179759

Can reduction of uncertainties in cervix cancer brachytherapy potentially improve clinical outcome?

PubMed

Nesvacil, Nicole; Tanderup, Kari; Lindegaard, Jacob C; Pötter, Richard; Kirisits, Christian

2016-09-01

The aim of this study was to quantify the impact of different types and magnitudes of dosimetric uncertainties in cervix cancer brachytherapy (BT) on tumour control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) curves. A dose-response simulation study was based on systematic and random dose uncertainties and TCP/NTCP models for CTV and rectum. Large patient cohorts were simulated assuming different levels of dosimetric uncertainties. TCP and NTCP were computed, based on the planned doses, the simulated dose uncertainty, and an underlying TCP/NTCP model. Systematic uncertainties of 3-20% and random uncertainties with a 5-30% standard deviation per BT fraction were analysed. Systematic dose uncertainties of 5% lead to a 1% decrease/increase of TCP/NTCP, while random uncertainties of 10% had negligible impact on the dose-response curve at clinically relevant dose levels for target and OAR. Random OAR dose uncertainties of 30% resulted in an NTCP increase of 3-4% for planned doses of 70-80Gy EQD2. TCP is robust to dosimetric uncertainties when dose prescription is in the more flat region of the dose-response curve at doses >75Gy. For OARs, improved clinical outcome is expected by reduction of uncertainties via sophisticated dose delivery and treatment verification. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Calibration procedure for a laser triangulation scanner with uncertainty evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Genta, Gianfranco; Minetola, Paolo; Barbato, Giulio

2016-11-01

Most of low cost 3D scanning devices that are nowadays available on the market are sold without a user calibration procedure to correct measurement errors related to changes in environmental conditions. In addition, there is no specific international standard defining a procedure to check the performance of a 3D scanner along time. This paper aims at detailing a thorough methodology to calibrate a 3D scanner and assess its measurement uncertainty. The proposed procedure is based on the use of a reference ball plate and applied to a triangulation laser scanner. Experimental results show that the metrological performance of the instrument can be greatly improved by the application of the calibration procedure that corrects systematic errors and reduces the device's measurement uncertainty.

Climate impacts on human livelihoods: where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lissner, T. K.; Reusser, D. E.; Schewe, J.; Lakes, T.; Kropp, J. P.

2014-10-01

Climate change will have adverse impacts on many different sectors of society, with manifold consequences for human livelihoods and well-being. However, a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable, making it difficult to determine the extent of such impacts. Climate impact analyses are often limited to individual sectors (e.g. food or water) and employ sector-specific target measures, while systematic linkages to general livelihood conditions remain unexplored. Further, recent multi-model assessments have shown that uncertainties in projections of climate impacts deriving from climate and impact models, as well as greenhouse gas scenarios, are substantial, posing an additional challenge in linking climate impacts with livelihood conditions. This article first presents a methodology to consistently measure what is referred to here as AHEAD (Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development). Based on a trans-disciplinary sample of concepts addressing human well-being and livelihoods, the approach measures the adequacy of conditions of 16 elements. We implement the method at global scale, using results from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to show how changes in water availability affect the fulfilment of AHEAD at national resolution. In addition, AHEAD allows for the uncertainty of climate and impact model projections to be identified and differentiated. We show how the approach can help to put the substantial inter-model spread into the context of country-specific livelihood conditions by differentiating where the uncertainty about water scarcity is relevant with regard to livelihood conditions - and where it is not. The results indicate that livelihood conditions are compromised by water scarcity in 34 countries. However, more often, AHEAD fulfilment is limited through other elements. The analysis shows that the water-specific uncertainty ranges of the model output are outside relevant thresholds for AHEAD for 65 out of 111 countries, and therefore do not contribute to the overall uncertainty about climate change impacts on livelihoods. In 46 of the countries in the analysis, water-specific uncertainty is relevant to AHEAD. The AHEAD method presented here, together with first results, forms an important step towards making scientific results more applicable for policy decisions.

Jet energy scale measurements and their systematic uncertainties in proton-proton collisions at √{s }=13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aaboud, M.; Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; Abdallah, J.; Abdinov, O.; Abeloos, B.; Abidi, S. H.; Abouzeid, O. S.; Abraham, N. L.; Abramowicz, H.; Abreu, H.; Abreu, R.; Abulaiti, Y.; Acharya, B. S.; Adachi, S.; Adamczyk, L.; Adelman, J.; Adersberger, M.; Adye, T.; Affolder, A. A.; Agatonovic-Jovin, T.; Agheorghiesei, C.; Aguilar-Saavedra, J. A.; Ahlen, S. P.; Ahmadov, F.; Aielli, G.; Akatsuka, S.; Akerstedt, H.; Åkesson, T. P. A.; Akimov, A. V.; Alberghi, G. L.; Albert, J.; Albicocco, P.; Alconada Verzini, M. J.; Aleksa, M.; Aleksandrov, I. N.; Alexa, C.; Alexander, G.; Alexopoulos, T.; Alhroob, M.; Ali, B.; Aliev, M.; Alimonti, G.; Alison, J.; Alkire, S. P.; Allbrooke, B. M. M.; Allen, B. W.; Allport, P. P.; Aloisio, A.; Alonso, A.; Alonso, F.; Alpigiani, C.; Alshehri, A. A.; Alstaty, M.; Alvarez Gonzalez, B.; Álvarez Piqueras, D.; Alviggi, M. G.; Amadio, B. T.; Amaral Coutinho, Y.; Amelung, C.; Amidei, D.; Amor Dos Santos, S. P.; Amorim, A.; Amoroso, S.; Amundsen, G.; Anastopoulos, C.; Ancu, L. S.; Andari, N.; Andeen, T.; Anders, C. F.; Anders, J. K.; Anderson, K. J.; Andreazza, A.; Andrei, V.; Angelidakis, S.; Angelozzi, I.; Angerami, A.; Anisenkov, A. V.; Anjos, N.; Annovi, A.; Antel, C.; Antonelli, M.; Antonov, A.; Antrim, D. J.; Anulli, F.; Aoki, M.; Aperio Bella, L.; Arabidze, G.; Arai, Y.; Araque, J. P.; Araujo Ferraz, V.; Arce, A. T. H.; Ardell, R. E.; Arduh, F. A.; Arguin, J.-F.; Argyropoulos, S.; Arik, M.; Armbruster, A. J.; Armitage, L. J.; Arnaez, O.; Arnold, H.; Arratia, M.; Arslan, O.; Artamonov, A.; Artoni, G.; Artz, S.; Asai, S.; Asbah, N.; Ashkenazi, A.; Asquith, L.; Assamagan, K.; Astalos, R.; Atkinson, M.; Atlay, N. B.; Augsten, K.; Avolio, G.; Axen, B.; Ayoub, M. K.; Azuelos, G.; Baas, A. E.; Baca, M. J.; Bachacou, H.; Bachas, K.; Backes, M.; Backhaus, M.; Bagnaia, P.; Bahrasemani, H.; Baines, J. T.; Bajic, M.; Baker, O. K.; Baldin, E. M.; Balek, P.; Balli, F.; Balunas, W. K.; Banas, E.; Banerjee, Sw.; Bannoura, A. A. E.; Barak, L.; Barberio, E. L.; Barberis, D.; Barbero, M.; Barillari, T.; Barisits, M.-S.; Barklow, T.; Barlow, N.; Barnes, S. L.; Barnett, B. M.; Barnett, R. M.; Barnovska-Blenessy, Z.; Baroncelli, A.; Barone, G.; Barr, A. J.; Barranco Navarro, L.; Barreiro, F.; Barreiro Guimarães da Costa, J.; Bartoldus, R.; Barton, A. E.; Bartos, P.; Basalaev, A.; Bassalat, A.; Bates, R. L.; Batista, S. J.; Batley, J. R.; Battaglia, M.; Bauce, M.; Bauer, F.; Bawa, H. S.; Beacham, J. B.; Beattie, M. D.; Beau, T.; Beauchemin, P. H.; Bechtle, P.; Beck, H. P.; Becker, K.; Becker, M.; Beckingham, M.; Becot, C.; Beddall, A. J.; Beddall, A.; Bednyakov, V. A.; Bedognetti, M.; Bee, C. P.; Beermann, T. A.; Begalli, M.; Begel, M.; Behr, J. K.; Bell, A. S.; Bella, G.; Bellagamba, L.; Bellerive, A.; Bellomo, M.; Belotskiy, K.; Beltramello, O.; Belyaev, N. L.; Benary, O.; Benchekroun, D.; Bender, M.; Bendtz, K.; Benekos, N.; Benhammou, Y.; Benhar Noccioli, E.; Benitez, J.; Benjamin, D. P.; Benoit, M.; Bensinger, J. R.; Bentvelsen, S.; Beresford, L.; Beretta, M.; Berge, D.; Bergeaas Kuutmann, E.; Berger, N.; Beringer, J.; Berlendis, S.; Bernard, N. R.; Bernardi, G.; Bernius, C.; Bernlochner, F. U.; Berry, T.; Berta, P.; Bertella, C.; Bertoli, G.; Bertolucci, F.; Bertram, I. A.; Bertsche, C.; Bertsche, D.; Besjes, G. J.; Bessidskaia Bylund, O.; Bessner, M.; Besson, N.; Betancourt, C.; Bethani, A.; Bethke, S.; Bevan, A. J.; Beyer, J.; Bianchi, R. M.; Biebel, O.; Biedermann, D.; Bielski, R.; Biesuz, N. V.; Biglietti, M.; Bilbao de Mendizabal, J.; Billoud, T. R. V.; Bilokon, H.; Bindi, M.; Bingul, A.; Bini, C.; Biondi, S.; Bisanz, T.; Bittrich, C.; Bjergaard, D. M.; Black, C. W.; Black, J. E.; Black, K. M.; Blackburn, D.; Blair, R. E.; Blazek, T.; Bloch, I.; Blocker, C.; Blue, A.; Blum, W.; Blumenschein, U.; Blunier, S.; Bobbink, G. J.; Bobrovnikov, V. S.; Bocchetta, S. S.; Bocci, A.; Bock, C.; Boehler, M.; Boerner, D.; Bogavac, D.; Bogdanchikov, A. G.; Bohm, C.; Boisvert, V.; Bokan, P.; Bold, T.; Boldyrev, A. S.; Bolz, A. E.; Bomben, M.; Bona, M.; Boonekamp, M.; Borisov, A.; Borissov, G.; Bortfeldt, J.; Bortoletto, D.; Bortolotto, V.; Bos, K.; Boscherini, D.; Bosman, M.; Bossio Sola, J. D.; Boudreau, J.; Bouffard, J.; Bouhova-Thacker, E. V.; Boumediene, D.; Bourdarios, C.; Boutle, S. K.; Boveia, A.; Boyd, J.; Boyko, I. R.; Bracinik, J.; Brandt, A.; Brandt, G.; Brandt, O.; Bratzler, U.; Brau, B.; Brau, J. E.; Breaden Madden, W. D.; Brendlinger, K.; Brennan, A. J.; Brenner, L.; Brenner, R.; Bressler, S.; Briglin, D. L.; Bristow, T. M.; Britton, D.; Britzger, D.; Brochu, F. M.; Brock, I.; Brock, R.; Brooijmans, G.; Brooks, T.; Brooks, W. K.; Brosamer, J.; Brost, E.; Broughton, J. H.; Bruckman de Renstrom, P. A.; Bruncko, D.; Bruni, A.; Bruni, G.; Bruni, L. S.; Brunt, Bh; Bruschi, M.; Bruscino, N.; Bryant, P.; Bryngemark, L.; Buanes, T.; Buat, Q.; Buchholz, P.; Buckley, A. G.; Budagov, I. A.; Buehrer, F.; Bugge, M. K.; Bulekov, O.; Bullock, D.; Burch, T. J.; Burckhart, H.; Burdin, S.; Burgard, C. D.; Burger, A. M.; Burghgrave, B.; Burka, K.; Burke, S.; Burmeister, I.; Burr, J. T. P.; Busato, E.; Büscher, D.; Büscher, V.; Bussey, P.; Butler, J. M.; Buttar, C. M.; Butterworth, J. M.; Butti, P.; Buttinger, W.; Buzatu, A.; Buzykaev, A. R.; Cabrera Urbán, S.; Caforio, D.; Cairo, V. M.; Cakir, O.; Calace, N.; Calafiura, P.; Calandri, A.; Calderini, G.; Calfayan, P.; Callea, G.; Caloba, L. P.; Calvente Lopez, S.; Calvet, D.; Calvet, S.; Calvet, T. P.; Camacho Toro, R.; Camarda, S.; Camarri, P.; Cameron, D.; Caminal Armadans, R.; Camincher, C.; Campana, S.; Campanelli, M.; Camplani, A.; Campoverde, A.; Canale, V.; Cano Bret, M.; Cantero, J.; Cao, T.; Capeans Garrido, M. D. M.; Caprini, I.; Caprini, M.; Capua, M.; Carbone, R. M.; Cardarelli, R.; Cardillo, F.; Carli, I.; Carli, T.; Carlino, G.; Carlson, B. T.; Carminati, L.; Carney, R. M. D.; Caron, S.; Carquin, E.; Carrá, S.; Carrillo-Montoya, G. D.; Carvalho, J.; Casadei, D.; Casado, M. P.; Casolino, M.; Casper, D. W.; Castelijn, R.; Castillo Gimenez, V.; Castro, N. F.; Catinaccio, A.; Catmore, J. R.; Cattai, A.; Caudron, J.; Cavaliere, V.; Cavallaro, E.; Cavalli, D.; Cavalli-Sforza, M.; Cavasinni, V.; Celebi, E.; Ceradini, F.; Cerda Alberich, L.; Cerqueira, A. S.; Cerri, A.; Cerrito, L.; Cerutti, F.; Cervelli, A.; Cetin, S. A.; Chafaq, A.; Chakraborty, D.; Chan, S. K.; Chan, W. S.; Chan, Y. L.; Chang, P.; Chapman, J. D.; Charlton, D. G.; Chau, C. C.; Chavez Barajas, C. A.; Che, S.; Cheatham, S.; Chegwidden, A.; Chekanov, S.; Chekulaev, S. V.; Chelkov, G. A.; Chelstowska, M. A.; Chen, C.; Chen, H.; Chen, S.; Chen, S.; Chen, X.; Chen, Y.; Cheng, H. C.; Cheng, H. J.; Cheplakov, A.; Cheremushkina, E.; Cherkaoui El Moursli, R.; Chernyatin, V.; Cheu, E.; Chevalier, L.; Chiarella, V.; Chiarelli, G.; Chiodini, G.; Chisholm, A. S.; Chitan, A.; Chiu, Y. H.; Chizhov, M. V.; Choi, K.; Chomont, A. R.; Chouridou, S.; Christodoulou, V.; Chromek-Burckhart, D.; Chu, M. C.; Chudoba, J.; Chuinard, A. J.; Chwastowski, J. J.; Chytka, L.; Ciftci, A. K.; Cinca, D.; Cindro, V.; Cioara, I. A.; Ciocca, C.; Ciocio, A.; Cirotto, F.; Citron, Z. H.; Citterio, M.; Ciubancan, M.; Clark, A.; Clark, B. L.; Clark, M. R.; Clark, P. J.; Clarke, R. N.; Clement, C.; Coadou, Y.; Cobal, M.; Coccaro, A.; Cochran, J.; Colasurdo, L.; Cole, B.; Colijn, A. P.; Collot, J.; Colombo, T.; Conde Muiño, P.; Coniavitis, E.; Connell, S. H.; Connelly, I. A.; Constantinescu, S.; Conti, G.; Conventi, F.; Cooke, M.; Cooper-Sarkar, A. M.; Cormier, F.; Cormier, K. J. R.; Corradi, M.; Corriveau, F.; Cortes-Gonzalez, A.; Cortiana, G.; Costa, G.; Costa, M. 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M.; Zakharchuk, N.; Zalieckas, J.; Zaman, A.; Zambito, S.; Zanzi, D.; Zeitnitz, C.; Zemla, A.; Zeng, J. C.; Zeng, Q.; Zenin, O.; Ženiš, T.; Zerwas, D.; Zhang, D.; Zhang, F.; Zhang, G.; Zhang, H.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, P.; Zhang, R.; Zhang, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, X.; Zhao, Y.; Zhao, Z.; Zhemchugov, A.; Zhou, B.; Zhou, C.; Zhou, L.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, N.; Zhu, C. G.; Zhu, H.; Zhu, J.; Zhu, Y.; Zhuang, X.; Zhukov, K.; Zibell, A.; Zieminska, D.; Zimine, N. I.; Zimmermann, C.; Zimmermann, S.; Zinonos, Z.; Zinser, M.; Ziolkowski, M.; Živković, L.; Zobernig, G.; Zoccoli, A.; Zou, R.; Zur Nedden, M.; Zwalinski, L.; Atlas Collaboration

2017-10-01

Jet energy scale measurements and their systematic uncertainties are reported for jets measured with the ATLAS detector using proton-proton collision data with a center-of-mass energy of √{s }=13 TeV , corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.2 fb-1 collected during 2015 at the LHC. Jets are reconstructed from energy deposits forming topological clusters of calorimeter cells, using the anti-kt algorithm with radius parameter R =0.4 . Jets are calibrated with a series of simulation-based corrections and in situ techniques. In situ techniques exploit the transverse momentum balance between a jet and a reference object such as a photon, Z boson, or multijet system for jets with 20 0.8 ) is derived from dijet pT balance measurements. For jets of pT=80 GeV , the additional uncertainty for the forward jet calibration reaches its largest value of about 2% in the range |η |>3.5 and in a narrow slice of 2.2 <|η |<2.4 .

Jet energy scale measurements and their systematic uncertainties in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aaboud, M.

Jet energy scale measurements and their systematic uncertainties are reported for jets measured with the ATLAS detector using proton-proton collision data with a center-of-mass energy of √ s = 13 TeV , corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.2 fb -1 collected during 2015 at the LHC. Jets are reconstructed from energy deposits forming topological clusters of calorimeter cells, using the anti- k t algorithm with radius parameter R = 0.4 . We calibrate jets with a series of simulation-based corrections and in situ techniques. In situ techniques exploit the transverse momentum balance between a jet and a reference objectmore » such as a photon, Z boson, or multijet system for jets with 20 < p T < 2000 GeV and pseudorapidities of | η | < 4.5 , using both data and simulation. An uncertainty in the jet energy scale of less than 1% is found in the central calorimeter region ( | η | < 1.2 ) for jets with 100 < p T < 500 GeV . An uncertainty of about 4.5% is found for low- p T jets with p T = 20 GeV in the central region, dominated by uncertainties in the corrections for multiple proton-proton interactions. The calibration of forward jets ( | η | > 0.8 ) is derived from dijet p T balance measurements. Furthermore, for jets of p T = 80 GeV , the additional uncertainty for the forward jet calibration reaches its largest value of about 2% in the range | η | > 3.5 and in a narrow slice of 2.2 < | η | < 2.4 .« less

Jet energy scale measurements and their systematic uncertainties in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

DOE PAGES

Aaboud, M.

2017-10-13

Jet energy scale measurements and their systematic uncertainties are reported for jets measured with the ATLAS detector using proton-proton collision data with a center-of-mass energy of √ s = 13 TeV , corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.2 fb -1 collected during 2015 at the LHC. Jets are reconstructed from energy deposits forming topological clusters of calorimeter cells, using the anti- k t algorithm with radius parameter R = 0.4 . We calibrate jets with a series of simulation-based corrections and in situ techniques. In situ techniques exploit the transverse momentum balance between a jet and a reference objectmore » such as a photon, Z boson, or multijet system for jets with 20 < p T < 2000 GeV and pseudorapidities of | η | < 4.5 , using both data and simulation. An uncertainty in the jet energy scale of less than 1% is found in the central calorimeter region ( | η | < 1.2 ) for jets with 100 < p T < 500 GeV . An uncertainty of about 4.5% is found for low- p T jets with p T = 20 GeV in the central region, dominated by uncertainties in the corrections for multiple proton-proton interactions. The calibration of forward jets ( | η | > 0.8 ) is derived from dijet p T balance measurements. Furthermore, for jets of p T = 80 GeV , the additional uncertainty for the forward jet calibration reaches its largest value of about 2% in the range | η | > 3.5 and in a narrow slice of 2.2 < | η | < 2.4 .« less

Lost in Translation: Piloting a Novel Framework to Assess the Challenges in Translating Scientific Uncertainty From Empirical Findings to WHO Policy Statements

PubMed Central

Benmarhnia, Tarik; Huang, Jonathan Y.; Jones, Catherine M.

2017-01-01

Background: Calls for evidence-informed public health policy, with implicit promises of greater program effectiveness, have intensified recently. The methods to produce such policies are not self-evident, requiring a conciliation of values and norms between policy-makers and evidence producers. In particular, the translation of uncertainty from empirical research findings, particularly issues of statistical variability and generalizability, is a persistent challenge because of the incremental nature of research and the iterative cycle of advancing knowledge and implementation. This paper aims to assess how the concept of uncertainty is considered and acknowledged in World Health Organization (WHO) policy recommendations and guidelines. Methods: We selected four WHO policy statements published between 2008-2013 regarding maternal and child nutrient supplementation, infant feeding, heat action plans, and malaria control to represent topics with a spectrum of available evidence bases. Each of these four statements was analyzed using a novel framework to assess the treatment of statistical variability and generalizability. Results: WHO currently provides substantial guidance on addressing statistical variability through GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation) ratings for precision and consistency in their guideline documents. Accordingly, our analysis showed that policy-informing questions were addressed by systematic reviews and representations of statistical variability (eg, with numeric confidence intervals). In contrast, the presentation of contextual or "background" evidence regarding etiology or disease burden showed little consideration for this variability. Moreover, generalizability or "indirectness" was uniformly neglected, with little explicit consideration of study settings or subgroups. Conclusion: In this paper, we found that non-uniform treatment of statistical variability and generalizability factors that may contribute to uncertainty regarding recommendations were neglected, including the state of evidence informing background questions (prevalence, mechanisms, or burden or distributions of health problems) and little assessment of generalizability, alternate interventions, and additional outcomes not captured by systematic review. These other factors often form a basis for providing policy recommendations, particularly in the absence of a strong evidence base for intervention effects. Consequently, they should also be subject to stringent and systematic evaluation criteria. We suggest that more effort is needed to systematically acknowledge (1) when evidence is missing, conflicting, or equivocal, (2) what normative considerations were also employed, and (3) how additional evidence may be accrued. PMID:29179291

An international marine-atmospheric {sup 222}Rn measurement intercomparison in Bermuda. Part 2: Results for the participating laboratories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Colle, R.; Unterweger, M.P.; Hutchinson, J.M.R.

1996-01-01

As part of an international measurement intercomparison of instruments used to measure atmospheric {sup 222}Rn, four participating laboratories made nearly simultaneous measurements of {sup 222}Rn activity concentration in commonly sampled, ambient air over approximately a 2 week period, and three of these four laboratories participated in the measurement comparison of 14 introduced samples with known, but undisclosed (blind) {sup 222}Rn activity concentration. The exercise was conducted in Bermuda in October 1991. The {sup 222}Rn activity concentrations in ambient Bermudian air over the course of the intercomparison ranged from a few hundredths of a Bq {center_dot} m{sup {minus}3} to about 2more » Bq {center_dot} m{sup {minus}3}, while the standardized sample additions covered a range from approximately 2.5 Bq {center_dot} m{sup {minus}3} to 35 Bq {center_dot} m{sup {minus}3}. The overall uncertainty in the latter concentrations was in the general range of 10%, approximating a 3 standard deviation uncertainty interval. The results of the intercomparison indicated that two of the laboratories were within very good agreement with the standard additions, and almost within expected statistical variations. These same two laboratories, however, at lower ambient concentrations, exhibited a systematic difference with an averaged offset of roughly 0.3 Bq {center_dot} m{sup {minus}3}. The third laboratory participating in the measurement of standardized sample additions was systematically low by about 65% to 70%, with respect to the standard addition which was also confirmed in their ambient air concentration measurements. The fourth laboratory, participating in only the ambient measurement part of the intercomparison, was also systematically low by at least 40% with respect to the first two laboratories.« less

Uncertainty Analysis of the NASA Glenn 8x6 Supersonic Wind Tunnel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephens, Julia; Hubbard, Erin; Walter, Joel; McElroy, Tyler

2016-01-01

This paper presents methods and results of a detailed measurement uncertainty analysis that was performed for the 8- by 6-foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel located at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The statistical methods and engineering judgments used to estimate elemental uncertainties are described. The Monte Carlo method of propagating uncertainty was selected to determine the uncertainty of calculated variables of interest. A detailed description of the Monte Carlo method as applied for this analysis is provided. Detailed uncertainty results for the uncertainty in average free stream Mach number as well as other variables of interest are provided. All results are presented as random (variation in observed values about a true value), systematic (potential offset between observed and true value), and total (random and systematic combined) uncertainty. The largest sources contributing to uncertainty are determined and potential improvement opportunities for the facility are investigated.

A Systematic Review and Methodological Evaluation of Published Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Aromatase Inhibitors versus Tamoxifen in Early Stage Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

John-Baptiste, Ava A.; Wu, Wei; Rochon, Paula; Anderson, Geoffrey M.; Bell, Chaim M.

2013-01-01

Background A key priority in developing policies for providing affordable cancer care is measuring the value for money of new therapies using cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs). For CEA to be useful it should focus on relevant outcomes and include thorough investigation of uncertainty. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of five years of aromatase inhibitors (AI) versus five years of tamoxifen in the treatment of post-menopausal women with early stage breast cancer, show benefit of AI in terms of disease free survival (DFS) but not overall survival (OS) and indicate higher risk of fracture with AI. Policy-relevant CEA of AI versus tamoxifen should focus on OS and include analysis of uncertainty over key assumptions. Methods We conducted a systematic review of published CEAs comparing an AI to tamoxifen. We searched Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews without language restrictions. We selected CEAs with outcomes expressed as cost per life year or cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY). We assessed quality using the Neumann checklist. Using structured forms two abstractors collected descriptive information, sources of data, baseline assumptions on effectiveness and adverse events, and recorded approaches to assessing parameter uncertainty, methodological uncertainty, and structural uncertainty. Results We identified 1,622 citations and 18 studies met inclusion criteria. All CE estimates assumed a survival benefit for aromatase inhibitors. Twelve studies performed sensitivity analysis on the risk of adverse events and 7 assumed no additional mortality risk with any adverse event. Sub-group analysis was limited; 6 studies examined older women, 2 examined women with low recurrence risk, and 1 examined women with multiple comorbidities. Conclusion Published CEAs comparing AIs to tamoxifen assumed an OS benefit though none has been shown in RCTs, leading to an overestimate of the cost-effectiveness of AIs. Results of these CEA analyses may be suboptimal for guiding policy. PMID:23671612

A systematic review and methodological evaluation of published cost-effectiveness analyses of aromatase inhibitors versus tamoxifen in early stage breast cancer.

PubMed

John-Baptiste, Ava A; Wu, Wei; Rochon, Paula; Anderson, Geoffrey M; Bell, Chaim M

2013-01-01

A key priority in developing policies for providing affordable cancer care is measuring the value for money of new therapies using cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs). For CEA to be useful it should focus on relevant outcomes and include thorough investigation of uncertainty. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of five years of aromatase inhibitors (AI) versus five years of tamoxifen in the treatment of post-menopausal women with early stage breast cancer, show benefit of AI in terms of disease free survival (DFS) but not overall survival (OS) and indicate higher risk of fracture with AI. Policy-relevant CEA of AI versus tamoxifen should focus on OS and include analysis of uncertainty over key assumptions. We conducted a systematic review of published CEAs comparing an AI to tamoxifen. We searched Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews without language restrictions. We selected CEAs with outcomes expressed as cost per life year or cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY). We assessed quality using the Neumann checklist. Using structured forms two abstractors collected descriptive information, sources of data, baseline assumptions on effectiveness and adverse events, and recorded approaches to assessing parameter uncertainty, methodological uncertainty, and structural uncertainty. We identified 1,622 citations and 18 studies met inclusion criteria. All CE estimates assumed a survival benefit for aromatase inhibitors. Twelve studies performed sensitivity analysis on the risk of adverse events and 7 assumed no additional mortality risk with any adverse event. Sub-group analysis was limited; 6 studies examined older women, 2 examined women with low recurrence risk, and 1 examined women with multiple comorbidities. Published CEAs comparing AIs to tamoxifen assumed an OS benefit though none has been shown in RCTs, leading to an overestimate of the cost-effectiveness of AIs. Results of these CEA analyses may be suboptimal for guiding policy.

An adaptive response surface method for crashworthiness optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Lei; Yang, Ren-Jye; Zhu, Ping

2013-11-01

Response surface-based design optimization has been commonly used for optimizing large-scale design problems in the automotive industry. However, most response surface models are built by a limited number of design points without considering data uncertainty. In addition, the selection of a response surface in the literature is often arbitrary. This article uses a Bayesian metric to systematically select the best available response surface among several candidates in a library while considering data uncertainty. An adaptive, efficient response surface strategy, which minimizes the number of computationally intensive simulations, was developed for design optimization of large-scale complex problems. This methodology was demonstrated by a crashworthiness optimization example.

Climate impacts on human livelihoods: where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lissner, T. K.; Reusser, D. E.; Schewe, J.; Lakes, T.; Kropp, J. P.

2014-03-01

Climate change will have adverse impacts on many different sectors of society, with manifold consequences for human livelihoods and well-being. However, a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable, making it difficult to determine the extent of such impacts. Climate impact analyses are often limited to individual sectors (e.g. food or water) and employ sector-specific target-measures, while systematic linkages to general livelihood conditions remain unexplored. Further, recent multi-model assessments have shown that uncertainties in projections of climate impacts deriving from climate and impact models as well as greenhouse gas scenarios are substantial, posing an additional challenge in linking climate impacts with livelihood conditions. This article first presents a methodology to consistently measure Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development (AHEAD). Based on a transdisciplinary sample of influential concepts addressing human well-being, the approach measures the adequacy of conditions of 16 elements. We implement the method at global scale, using results from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to show how changes in water availability affect the fulfilment of AHEAD at national resolution. In addition, AHEAD allows identifying and differentiating uncertainty of climate and impact model projections. We show how the approach can help to put the substantial inter-model spread into the context of country-specific livelihood conditions by differentiating where the uncertainty about water scarcity is relevant with regard to livelihood conditions - and where it is not. The results indicate that in many countries today, livelihood conditions are compromised by water scarcity. However, more often, AHEAD fulfilment is limited through other elements. Moreover, the analysis shows that for 44 out of 111 countries, the water-specific uncertainty ranges are outside relevant thresholds for AHEAD, and therefore do not contribute to the overall uncertainty about climate change impacts on livelihoods. The AHEAD method presented here, together with first results, forms an important step towards making scientific results more applicable for policy-decisions.

Wave-optics uncertainty propagation and regression-based bias model in GNSS radio occultation bending angle retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorbunov, Michael E.; Kirchengast, Gottfried

2018-01-01

A new reference occultation processing system (rOPS) will include a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) retrieval chain with integrated uncertainty propagation. In this paper, we focus on wave-optics bending angle (BA) retrieval in the lower troposphere and introduce (1) an empirically estimated boundary layer bias (BLB) model then employed to reduce the systematic uncertainty of excess phases and bending angles in about the lowest 2 km of the troposphere and (2) the estimation of (residual) systematic uncertainties and their propagation together with random uncertainties from excess phase to bending angle profiles. Our BLB model describes the estimated bias of the excess phase transferred from the estimated bias of the bending angle, for which the model is built, informed by analyzing refractivity fluctuation statistics shown to induce such biases. The model is derived from regression analysis using a large ensemble of Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) RO observations and concurrent European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis fields. It is formulated in terms of predictors and adaptive functions (powers and cross products of predictors), where we use six main predictors derived from observations: impact altitude, latitude, bending angle and its standard deviation, canonical transform (CT) amplitude, and its fluctuation index. Based on an ensemble of test days, independent of the days of data used for the regression analysis to establish the BLB model, we find the model very effective for bias reduction and capable of reducing bending angle and corresponding refractivity biases by about a factor of 5. The estimated residual systematic uncertainty, after the BLB profile subtraction, is lower bounded by the uncertainty from the (indirect) use of ECMWF analysis fields but is significantly lower than the systematic uncertainty without BLB correction. The systematic and random uncertainties are propagated from excess phase to bending angle profiles, using a perturbation approach and the wave-optical method recently introduced by Gorbunov and Kirchengast (2015), starting with estimated excess phase uncertainties. The results are encouraging and this uncertainty propagation approach combined with BLB correction enables a robust reduction and quantification of the uncertainties of excess phases and bending angles in the lower troposphere.

Reviews and syntheses: Revisiting the boron systematics of aragonite and their application to coral calcification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeCarlo, Thomas M.; Holcomb, Michael; McCulloch, Malcolm T.

2018-05-01

The isotopic and elemental systematics of boron in aragonitic coral skeletons have recently been developed as a proxy for the carbonate chemistry of the coral extracellular calcifying fluid. With knowledge of the boron isotopic fractionation in seawater and the B/Ca partition coefficient (KD) between aragonite and seawater, measurements of coral skeleton δ11B and B/Ca can potentially constrain the full carbonate system. Two sets of abiogenic aragonite precipitation experiments designed to quantify KD have recently made possible the application of this proxy system. However, while different KD formulations have been proposed, there has not yet been a comprehensive analysis that considers both experimental datasets and explores the implications for interpreting coral skeletons. Here, we evaluate four potential KD formulations: three previously presented in the literature and one newly developed. We assess how well each formulation reconstructs the known fluid carbonate chemistry from the abiogenic experiments, and we evaluate the implications for deriving the carbonate chemistry of coral calcifying fluid. Three of the KD formulations performed similarly when applied to abiogenic aragonites precipitated from seawater and to coral skeletons. Critically, we find that some uncertainty remains in understanding the mechanism of boron elemental partitioning between aragonite and seawater, and addressing this question should be a target of additional abiogenic precipitation experiments. Despite this, boron systematics can already be applied to quantify the coral calcifying fluid carbonate system, although uncertainties associated with the proxy system should be carefully considered for each application. Finally, we present a user-friendly computer code that calculates coral calcifying fluid carbonate chemistry, including propagation of uncertainties, given inputs of boron systematics measured in coral skeleton.

A New Approach for Obtaining Cosmological Constraints from Type Ia Supernovae using Approximate Bayesian Computation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jennings, Elise; Wolf, Rachel; Sako, Masao

2016-11-09

Cosmological parameter estimation techniques that robustly account for systematic measurement uncertainties will be crucial for the next generation of cosmological surveys. We present a new analysis method, superABC, for obtaining cosmological constraints from Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) light curves using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) without any likelihood assumptions. The ABC method works by using a forward model simulation of the data where systematic uncertainties can be simulated and marginalized over. A key feature of the method presented here is the use of two distinct metrics, the `Tripp' and `Light Curve' metrics, which allow us to compare the simulated data to the observed data set. The Tripp metric takes as input the parameters of models fit to each light curve with the SALT-II method, whereas the Light Curve metric uses the measured fluxes directly without model fitting. We apply the superABC sampler to a simulated data set ofmore » $$\\sim$$1000 SNe corresponding to the first season of the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program. Varying $$\\Omega_m, w_0, \\alpha$$ and $$\\beta$$ and a magnitude offset parameter, with no systematics we obtain $$\\Delta(w_0) = w_0^{\\rm true} - w_0^{\\rm best \\, fit} = -0.036\\pm0.109$$ (a $$\\sim11$$% 1$$\\sigma$$ uncertainty) using the Tripp metric and $$\\Delta(w_0) = -0.055\\pm0.068$$ (a $$\\sim7$$% 1$$\\sigma$$ uncertainty) using the Light Curve metric. Including 1% calibration uncertainties in four passbands, adding 4 more parameters, we obtain $$\\Delta(w_0) = -0.062\\pm0.132$$ (a $$\\sim14$$% 1$$\\sigma$$ uncertainty) using the Tripp metric. Overall we find a $17$% increase in the uncertainty on $$w_0$$ with systematics compared to without. We contrast this with a MCMC approach where systematic effects are approximately included. We find that the MCMC method slightly underestimates the impact of calibration uncertainties for this simulated data set.« less

Planck 2015 results. III. LFI systematic uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Planck Collaboration; Ade, P. A. R.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A. J.; Barreiro, R. B.; Bartolo, N.; Basak, S.; Battaglia, P.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bernard, J.-P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J. R.; Borrill, J.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R. C.; Calabrese, E.; Catalano, A.; Christensen, P. R.; Colombo, L. P. L.; Cruz, M.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R. D.; Davis, R. J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J. M.; Doré, O.; Ducout, A.; Dupac, X.; Elsner, F.; Enßlin, T. A.; Eriksen, H. K.; Finelli, F.; Frailis, M.; Franceschet, C.; Franceschi, E.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Ghosh, T.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Héraud, Y.; Gjerløw, E.; González-Nuevo, J.; Górski, K. M.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Hansen, F. K.; Harrison, D. L.; Hernández-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S. R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K. M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A. H.; Jaffe, T. R.; Keihänen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kiiveri, K.; Kisner, T. S.; Knoche, J.; Krachmalnicoff, N.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lamarre, J.-M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C. R.; Leahy, J. P.; Leonardi, R.; Levrier, F.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P. B.; Linden-Vørnle, M.; Lindholm, V.; López-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P. M.; Macías-Pérez, J. F.; Maffei, B.; Maggio, G.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Maris, M.; Martin, P. G.; Martínez-González, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Meinhold, P. R.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J. A.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Noviello, F.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Partridge, B.; Pasian, F.; Pearson, T. J.; Perdereau, O.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Pratt, G. W.; Puget, J.-L.; Rachen, J. P.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renzi, A.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Roudier, G.; Rubiño-Martín, J. A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Scott, D.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Suur-Uski, A.-S.; Sygnet, J.-F.; Tauber, J. A.; Tavagnacco, D.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vassallo, T.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L. A.; Wandelt, B. D.; Watson, R.; Wehus, I. K.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zibin, J. P.; Zonca, A.

2016-09-01

We present the current accounting of systematic effect uncertainties for the Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) that are relevant to the 2015 release of the Planck cosmological results, showing the robustness and consistency of our data set, especially for polarization analysis. We use two complementary approaches: (I) simulations based on measured data and physical models of the known systematic effects; and (II) analysis of difference maps containing the same sky signal ("null-maps"). The LFI temperature data are limited by instrumental noise. At large angular scales the systematic effects are below the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature power spectrum by several orders of magnitude. In polarization the systematic uncertainties are dominated by calibration uncertainties and compete with the CMB E-modes in the multipole range 10-20. Based on our model of all known systematic effects, we show that these effects introduce a slight bias of around 0.2σ on the reionization optical depth derived from the 70GHz EE spectrum using the 30 and 353GHz channels as foreground templates. At 30GHz the systematic effects are smaller than the Galactic foreground at all scales in temperature and polarization, which allows us to consider this channel as a reliable template of synchrotron emission. We assess the residual uncertainties due to LFI effects on CMB maps and power spectra after component separation and show that these effects are smaller than the CMB amplitude at all scales. We also assess the impact on non-Gaussianity studies and find it to be negligible. Some residuals still appear in null maps from particular sky survey pairs, particularly at 30 GHz, suggesting possible straylight contamination due to an imperfect knowledge of the beam far sidelobes.

Planck 2015 results: III. LFI systematic uncertainties

DOE PAGES

Ade, P. A. R.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; ...

2016-09-20

In this paper, we present the current accounting of systematic effect uncertainties for the Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) that are relevant to the 2015 release of the Planck cosmological results, showing the robustness and consistency of our data set, especially for polarization analysis. We use two complementary approaches: (i) simulations based on measured data and physical models of the known systematic effects; and (ii) analysis of difference maps containing the same sky signal (“null-maps”). The LFI temperature data are limited by instrumental noise. At large angular scales the systematic effects are below the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature power spectrummore » by several orders of magnitude. In polarization the systematic uncertainties are dominated by calibration uncertainties and compete with the CMB E-modes in the multipole range 10–20. Based on our model of all known systematic effects, we show that these effects introduce a slight bias of around 0.2σ on the reionization optical depth derived from the 70GHz EE spectrum using the 30 and 353GHz channels as foreground templates. At 30GHz the systematic effects are smaller than the Galactic foreground at all scales in temperature and polarization, which allows us to consider this channel as a reliable template of synchrotron emission. We assess the residual uncertainties due to LFI effects on CMB maps and power spectra after component separation and show that these effects are smaller than the CMB amplitude at all scales. We also assess the impact on non-Gaussianity studies and find it to be negligible. Finally, some residuals still appear in null maps from particular sky survey pairs, particularly at 30 GHz, suggesting possible straylight contamination due to an imperfect knowledge of the beam far sidelobes.« less

Planck 2015 results: III. LFI systematic uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ade, P. A. R.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.

In this paper, we present the current accounting of systematic effect uncertainties for the Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) that are relevant to the 2015 release of the Planck cosmological results, showing the robustness and consistency of our data set, especially for polarization analysis. We use two complementary approaches: (i) simulations based on measured data and physical models of the known systematic effects; and (ii) analysis of difference maps containing the same sky signal (“null-maps”). The LFI temperature data are limited by instrumental noise. At large angular scales the systematic effects are below the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature power spectrummore » by several orders of magnitude. In polarization the systematic uncertainties are dominated by calibration uncertainties and compete with the CMB E-modes in the multipole range 10–20. Based on our model of all known systematic effects, we show that these effects introduce a slight bias of around 0.2σ on the reionization optical depth derived from the 70GHz EE spectrum using the 30 and 353GHz channels as foreground templates. At 30GHz the systematic effects are smaller than the Galactic foreground at all scales in temperature and polarization, which allows us to consider this channel as a reliable template of synchrotron emission. We assess the residual uncertainties due to LFI effects on CMB maps and power spectra after component separation and show that these effects are smaller than the CMB amplitude at all scales. We also assess the impact on non-Gaussianity studies and find it to be negligible. Finally, some residuals still appear in null maps from particular sky survey pairs, particularly at 30 GHz, suggesting possible straylight contamination due to an imperfect knowledge of the beam far sidelobes.« less

Uncertainty in monitoring E. coli concentrations in streams and stormwater runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harmel, R. D.; Hathaway, J. M.; Wagner, K. L.; Wolfe, J. E.; Karthikeyan, R.; Francesconi, W.; McCarthy, D. T.

2016-03-01

Microbial contamination of surface waters, a substantial public health concern throughout the world, is typically identified by fecal indicator bacteria such as Escherichia coli. Thus, monitoring E. coli concentrations is critical to evaluate current conditions, determine restoration effectiveness, and inform model development and calibration. An often overlooked component of these monitoring and modeling activities is understanding the inherent random and systematic uncertainty present in measured data. In this research, a review and subsequent analysis was performed to identify, document, and analyze measurement uncertainty of E. coli data collected in stream flow and stormwater runoff as individual discrete samples or throughout a single runoff event. Data on the uncertainty contributed by sample collection, sample preservation/storage, and laboratory analysis in measured E. coli concentrations were compiled and analyzed, and differences in sampling method and data quality scenarios were compared. The analysis showed that: (1) manual integrated sampling produced the lowest random and systematic uncertainty in individual samples, but automated sampling typically produced the lowest uncertainty when sampling throughout runoff events; (2) sample collection procedures often contributed the highest amount of uncertainty, although laboratory analysis introduced substantial random uncertainty and preservation/storage introduced substantial systematic uncertainty under some scenarios; and (3) the uncertainty in measured E. coli concentrations was greater than that of sediment and nutrients, but the difference was not as great as may be assumed. This comprehensive analysis of uncertainty in E. coli concentrations measured in streamflow and runoff should provide valuable insight for designing E. coli monitoring projects, reducing uncertainty in quality assurance efforts, regulatory and policy decision making, and fate and transport modeling.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Spectral properties of 441 radio pulsars (Jankowski+, 2018)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jankowski, F.; van Straten, W.; Keane, E. F.; Bailes, M.; Barr, E. D.; Johnston, S.; Kerr, M.

2018-03-01

We present spectral parameters for 441 radio pulsars. These were obtained from observations centred at 728, 1382 and 3100MHz using the 10-50cm and the 20cm multibeam receiver at the Parkes radio telescope. In particular, we list the pulsar names (J2000), the calibrated, band-integrated flux densities at 728, 1382 and 3100MHz, the spectral classifications, the frequency ranges the spectral classifications were performed over, the spectral indices for pulsars with simple power-law spectra and the robust modulation indices at all three centre frequencies for pulsars of which we have at least six measurement epochs. The flux density uncertainties include scintillation and a systematic contribution, in addition to the statistical uncertainty. Upper limits are reported at the 3σ level and all other uncertainties at the 1σ level. (1 data file).

Measurement time and statistics for a noise thermometer with a synthetic-noise reference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, D. R.; Benz, S. P.; Labenski, J. R.; Nam, S. W.; Qu, J. F.; Rogalla, H.; Tew, W. L.

2008-08-01

This paper describes methods for reducing the statistical uncertainty in measurements made by noise thermometers using digital cross-correlators and, in particular, for thermometers using pseudo-random noise for the reference signal. First, a discrete-frequency expression for the correlation bandwidth for conventional noise thermometers is derived. It is shown how an alternative frequency-domain computation can be used to eliminate the spectral response of the correlator and increase the correlation bandwidth. The corresponding expressions for the uncertainty in the measurement of pseudo-random noise in the presence of uncorrelated thermal noise are then derived. The measurement uncertainty in this case is less than that for true thermal-noise measurements. For pseudo-random sources generating a frequency comb, an additional small reduction in uncertainty is possible, but at the cost of increasing the thermometer's sensitivity to non-linearity errors. A procedure is described for allocating integration times to further reduce the total uncertainty in temperature measurements. Finally, an important systematic error arising from the calculation of ratios of statistical variables is described.

Model uncertainty of various settlement estimation methods in shallow tunnels excavation; case study: Qom subway tunnel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khademian, Amir; Abdollahipour, Hamed; Bagherpour, Raheb; Faramarzi, Lohrasb

2017-10-01

In addition to the numerous planning and executive challenges, underground excavation in urban areas is always followed by certain destructive effects especially on the ground surface; ground settlement is the most important of these effects for which estimation there exist different empirical, analytical and numerical methods. Since geotechnical models are associated with considerable model uncertainty, this study characterized the model uncertainty of settlement estimation models through a systematic comparison between model predictions and past performance data derived from instrumentation. To do so, the amount of surface settlement induced by excavation of the Qom subway tunnel was estimated via empirical (Peck), analytical (Loganathan and Poulos) and numerical (FDM) methods; the resulting maximum settlement value of each model were 1.86, 2.02 and 1.52 cm, respectively. The comparison of these predicted amounts with the actual data from instrumentation was employed to specify the uncertainty of each model. The numerical model outcomes, with a relative error of 3.8%, best matched the reality and the analytical method, with a relative error of 27.8%, yielded the highest level of model uncertainty.

Asteroseismic modelling of solar-type stars: internal systematics from input physics and surface correction methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nsamba, B.; Campante, T. L.; Monteiro, M. J. P. F. G.; Cunha, M. S.; Rendle, B. M.; Reese, D. R.; Verma, K.

2018-04-01

Asteroseismic forward modelling techniques are being used to determine fundamental properties (e.g. mass, radius, and age) of solar-type stars. The need to take into account all possible sources of error is of paramount importance towards a robust determination of stellar properties. We present a study of 34 solar-type stars for which high signal-to-noise asteroseismic data is available from multi-year Kepler photometry. We explore the internal systematics on the stellar properties, that is, associated with the uncertainty in the input physics used to construct the stellar models. In particular, we explore the systematics arising from: (i) the inclusion of the diffusion of helium and heavy elements; and (ii) the uncertainty in solar metallicity mixture. We also assess the systematics arising from (iii) different surface correction methods used in optimisation/fitting procedures. The systematics arising from comparing results of models with and without diffusion are found to be 0.5%, 0.8%, 2.1%, and 16% in mean density, radius, mass, and age, respectively. The internal systematics in age are significantly larger than the statistical uncertainties. We find the internal systematics resulting from the uncertainty in solar metallicity mixture to be 0.7% in mean density, 0.5% in radius, 1.4% in mass, and 6.7% in age. The surface correction method by Sonoi et al. and Ball & Gizon's two-term correction produce the lowest internal systematics among the different correction methods, namely, ˜1%, ˜1%, ˜2%, and ˜8% in mean density, radius, mass, and age, respectively. Stellar masses obtained using the surface correction methods by Kjeldsen et al. and Ball & Gizon's one-term correction are systematically higher than those obtained using frequency ratios.

Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections.

PubMed

Alexander, Peter; Prestele, Reinhard; Verburg, Peter H; Arneth, Almut; Baranzelli, Claudia; Batista E Silva, Filipe; Brown, Calum; Butler, Adam; Calvin, Katherine; Dendoncker, Nicolas; Doelman, Jonathan C; Dunford, Robert; Engström, Kerstin; Eitelberg, David; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harrison, Paula A; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Holzhauer, Sascha; Humpenöder, Florian; Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris; Jain, Atul K; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Lavalle, Carlo; Lenton, Tim; Liu, Jiayi; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Powell, Tom; Sands, Ronald D; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Stehfest, Elke; Steinbuks, Jevgenijs; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; Wise, Marshall A; Rounsevell, Mark D A

2017-02-01

Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Instrumentation-related uncertainty of reflectance and transmittance measurements with a two-channel spectrophotometer.

PubMed

Peest, Christian; Schinke, Carsten; Brendel, Rolf; Schmidt, Jan; Bothe, Karsten

2017-01-01

Spectrophotometers are operated in numerous fields of science and industry for a variety of applications. In order to provide confidence for the measured data, analyzing the associated uncertainty is valuable. However, the uncertainty of the measurement results is often unknown or reduced to sample-related contributions. In this paper, we describe our approach for the systematic determination of the measurement uncertainty of the commercially available two-channel spectrophotometer Agilent Cary 5000 in accordance with the Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurements. We focus on the instrumentation-related uncertainty contributions rather than the specific application and thus outline a general procedure which can be adapted for other instruments. Moreover, we discover a systematic signal deviation due to the inertia of the measurement amplifier and develop and apply a correction procedure. Thereby we increase the usable dynamic range of the instrument by more than one order of magnitude. We present methods for the quantification of the uncertainty contributions and combine them into an uncertainty budget for the device.

HZETRN radiation transport validation using balloon-based experimental data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, James E.; Norman, Ryan B.; Blattnig, Steve R.

2018-05-01

The deterministic radiation transport code HZETRN (High charge (Z) and Energy TRaNsport) was developed by NASA to study the effects of cosmic radiation on astronauts and instrumentation shielded by various materials. This work presents an analysis of computed differential flux from HZETRN compared with measurement data from three balloon-based experiments over a range of atmospheric depths, particle types, and energies. Model uncertainties were quantified using an interval-based validation metric that takes into account measurement uncertainty both in the flux and the energy at which it was measured. Average uncertainty metrics were computed for the entire dataset as well as subsets of the measurements (by experiment, particle type, energy, etc.) to reveal any specific trends of systematic over- or under-prediction by HZETRN. The distribution of individual model uncertainties was also investigated to study the range and dispersion of errors beyond just single scalar and interval metrics. The differential fluxes from HZETRN were generally well-correlated with balloon-based measurements; the median relative model difference across the entire dataset was determined to be 30%. The distribution of model uncertainties, however, revealed that the range of errors was relatively broad, with approximately 30% of the uncertainties exceeding ± 40%. The distribution also indicated that HZETRN systematically under-predicts the measurement dataset as a whole, with approximately 80% of the relative uncertainties having negative values. Instances of systematic bias for subsets of the data were also observed, including a significant underestimation of alpha particles and protons for energies below 2.5 GeV/u. Muons were found to be systematically over-predicted at atmospheric depths deeper than 50 g/cm2 but under-predicted for shallower depths. Furthermore, a systematic under-prediction of alpha particles and protons was observed below the geomagnetic cutoff, suggesting that improvements to the light ion production cross sections in HZETRN should be investigated.

Uncertainty Analysis and Order-by-Order Optimization of Chiral Nuclear Interactions

DOE PAGES

Carlsson, Boris; Forssen, Christian; Fahlin Strömberg, D.; ...

2016-02-24

Chiral effective field theory ( ΧEFT) provides a systematic approach to describe low-energy nuclear forces. Moreover, EFT is able to provide well-founded estimates of statistical and systematic uncertainties | although this unique advantage has not yet been fully exploited. We ll this gap by performing an optimization and statistical analysis of all the low-energy constants (LECs) up to next-to-next-to-leading order. Our optimization protocol corresponds to a simultaneous t to scattering and bound-state observables in the pion-nucleon, nucleon-nucleon, and few-nucleon sectors, thereby utilizing the full model capabilities of EFT. Finally, we study the effect on other observables by demonstrating forward-error-propagation methodsmore » that can easily be adopted by future works. We employ mathematical optimization and implement automatic differentiation to attain e cient and machine-precise first- and second-order derivatives of the objective function with respect to the LECs. This is also vital for the regression analysis. We use power-counting arguments to estimate the systematic uncertainty that is inherent to EFT and we construct chiral interactions at different orders with quantified uncertainties. Statistical error propagation is compared with Monte Carlo sampling showing that statistical errors are in general small compared to systematic ones. In conclusion, we find that a simultaneous t to different sets of data is critical to (i) identify the optimal set of LECs, (ii) capture all relevant correlations, (iii) reduce the statistical uncertainty, and (iv) attain order-by-order convergence in EFT. Furthermore, certain systematic uncertainties in the few-nucleon sector are shown to get substantially magnified in the many-body sector; in particlar when varying the cutoff in the chiral potentials. The methodology and results presented in this Paper open a new frontier for uncertainty quantification in ab initio nuclear theory.« less

RELICS: Strong Lens Models for Five Galaxy Clusters from the Reionization Lensing Cluster Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerny, Catherine; Sharon, Keren; Andrade-Santos, Felipe; Avila, Roberto J.; Bradač, Maruša; Bradley, Larry D.; Carrasco, Daniela; Coe, Dan; Czakon, Nicole G.; Dawson, William A.; Frye, Brenda L.; Hoag, Austin; Huang, Kuang-Han; Johnson, Traci L.; Jones, Christine; Lam, Daniel; Lovisari, Lorenzo; Mainali, Ramesh; Oesch, Pascal A.; Ogaz, Sara; Past, Matthew; Paterno-Mahler, Rachel; Peterson, Avery; Riess, Adam G.; Rodney, Steven A.; Ryan, Russell E.; Salmon, Brett; Sendra-Server, Irene; Stark, Daniel P.; Strolger, Louis-Gregory; Trenti, Michele; Umetsu, Keiichi; Vulcani, Benedetta; Zitrin, Adi

2018-06-01

Strong gravitational lensing by galaxy clusters magnifies background galaxies, enhancing our ability to discover statistically significant samples of galaxies at {\\boldsymbol{z}}> 6, in order to constrain the high-redshift galaxy luminosity functions. Here, we present the first five lens models out of the Reionization Lensing Cluster Survey (RELICS) Hubble Treasury Program, based on new HST WFC3/IR and ACS imaging of the clusters RXC J0142.9+4438, Abell 2537, Abell 2163, RXC J2211.7–0349, and ACT-CLJ0102–49151. The derived lensing magnification is essential for estimating the intrinsic properties of high-redshift galaxy candidates, and properly accounting for the survey volume. We report on new spectroscopic redshifts of multiply imaged lensed galaxies behind these clusters, which are used as constraints, and detail our strategy to reduce systematic uncertainties due to lack of spectroscopic information. In addition, we quantify the uncertainty on the lensing magnification due to statistical and systematic errors related to the lens modeling process, and find that in all but one cluster, the magnification is constrained to better than 20% in at least 80% of the field of view, including statistical and systematic uncertainties. The five clusters presented in this paper span the range of masses and redshifts of the clusters in the RELICS program. We find that they exhibit similar strong lensing efficiencies to the clusters targeted by the Hubble Frontier Fields within the WFC3/IR field of view. Outputs of the lens models are made available to the community through the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes.

PTV margin determination in conformal SRT of intracranial lesions

PubMed Central

Parker, Brent C.; Shiu, Almon S.; Maor, Moshe H.; Lang, Frederick F.; Liu, H. Helen; White, R. Allen; Antolak, John A.

2002-01-01

The planning target volume (PTV) includes the clinical target volume (CTV) to be irradiated and a margin to account for uncertainties in the treatment process. Uncertainties in miniature multileaf collimator (mMLC) leaf positioning, CT scanner spatial localization, CT‐MRI image fusion spatial localization, and Gill‐Thomas‐Cosman (GTC) relocatable head frame repositioning were quantified for the purpose of determining a minimum PTV margin that still delivers a satisfactory CTV dose. The measured uncertainties were then incorporated into a simple Monte Carlo calculation for evaluation of various margin and fraction combinations. Satisfactory CTV dosimetric criteria were selected to be a minimum CTV dose of 95% of the PTV dose and at least 95% of the CTV receiving 100% of the PTV dose. The measured uncertainties were assumed to be Gaussian distributions. Systematic errors were added linearly and random errors were added in quadrature assuming no correlation to arrive at the total combined error. The Monte Carlo simulation written for this work examined the distribution of cumulative dose volume histograms for a large patient population using various margin and fraction combinations to determine the smallest margin required to meet the established criteria. The program examined 5 and 30 fraction treatments, since those are the only fractionation schemes currently used at our institution. The fractionation schemes were evaluated using no margin, a margin of just the systematic component of the total uncertainty, and a margin of the systematic component plus one standard deviation of the total uncertainty. It was concluded that (i) a margin of the systematic error plus one standard deviation of the total uncertainty is the smallest PTV margin necessary to achieve the established CTV dose criteria, and (ii) it is necessary to determine the uncertainties introduced by the specific equipment and procedures used at each institution since the uncertainties may vary among locations. PACS number(s): 87.53.Kn, 87.53.Ly PMID:12132939

An integrated modeling approach to support management decisions of coupled groundwater-agricultural systems under multiple uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagos Subagadis, Yohannes; Schütze, Niels; Grundmann, Jens

2015-04-01

The planning and implementation of effective water resources management strategies need an assessment of multiple (physical, environmental, and socio-economic) issues, and often requires new research in which knowledge of diverse disciplines are combined in a unified methodological and operational frameworks. Such integrative research to link different knowledge domains faces several practical challenges. Such complexities are further compounded by multiple actors frequently with conflicting interests and multiple uncertainties about the consequences of potential management decisions. A fuzzy-stochastic multiple criteria decision analysis tool was developed in this study to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with complex hydrosystems management. It integrated physical process-based models, fuzzy logic, expert involvement and stochastic simulation within a general framework. Subsequently, the proposed new approach is applied to a water-scarce coastal arid region water management problem in northern Oman, where saltwater intrusion into a coastal aquifer due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture has affected the aquifer sustainability, endangering associated socio-economic conditions as well as traditional social structure. Results from the developed method have provided key decision alternatives which can serve as a platform for negotiation and further exploration. In addition, this approach has enabled to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with the decision problem. Sensitivity analysis applied within the developed tool has shown that the decision makers' risk aversion and risk taking attitude may yield in different ranking of decision alternatives. The developed approach can be applied to address the complexities and uncertainties inherent in water resources systems to support management decisions, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation.

What is the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of conservative interventions for tendinopathy? An overview of systematic reviews of clinical effectiveness and systematic review of economic evaluations.

PubMed

Long, Linda; Briscoe, Simon; Cooper, Chris; Hyde, Chris; Crathorne, Louise

2015-01-01

Lateral elbow tendinopathy (LET) is a common complaint causing characteristic pain in the lateral elbow and upper forearm, and tenderness of the forearm extensor muscles. It is thought to be an overuse injury and can have a major impact on the patient's social and professional life. The condition is challenging to treat and prone to recurrent episodes. The average duration of a typical episode ranges from 6 to 24 months, with most (89%) reporting recovery by 1 year. This systematic review aims to summarise the evidence concerning the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of conservative interventions for LET. A comprehensive search was conducted from database inception to 2012 in a range of databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Databases. We conducted an overview of systematic reviews to summarise the current evidence concerning the clinical effectiveness and a systematic review for the cost-effectiveness of conservative interventions for LET. We identified additional randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that could contribute further evidence to existing systematic reviews. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Allied and Complementary Medicine Database, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Web of Science, The Cochrane Library and other important databases from inception to January 2013. A total of 29 systematic reviews published since 2003 matched our inclusion criteria. These were quality appraised using the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) checklist; five were considered high quality and evaluated using a Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach. A total of 36 RCTs were identified that were not included in a systematic review and 29 RCTs were identified that had only been evaluated in an included systematic review of intermediate/low quality. These were then mapped to existing systematic reviews where further evidence could provide updates. Two economic evaluations were identified. The summary of findings from the review was based only on high-quality evidence (scoring of > 5 AMSTAR). Other limitations were that identified RCTs were not quality appraised and dichotomous outcomes were also not considered. Economic evaluations took effectiveness estimates from trials that had small sample sizes leading to uncertainty surrounding the effect sizes reported. This, in turn, led to uncertainty of the reported cost-effectiveness and, as such, no robust recommendations could be made in this respect. Clinical effectiveness evidence from the high-quality systematic reviews identified in this overview continues to suggest uncertainty as to the effectiveness of many conservative interventions for the treatment of LET. Although new RCT evidence has been identified with either placebo or active controls, there is uncertainty as to the size of effects reported within them because of the small sample size. Conclusions regarding cost-effectiveness are also unclear. We consider that, although updated or new systematic reviews may also be of value, the primary focus of future work should be on conducting large-scale, good-quality clinical trials using a core set of outcome measures (for defined time points) and appropriate follow-up. Subgroup analysis of existing RCT data may be beneficial to ascertain whether or not certain patient groups are more likely to respond to treatments. This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013003593. The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

SU-E-CAMPUS-J-05: Quantitative Investigation of Random and Systematic Uncertainties From Hardware and Software Components in the Frameless 6DBrainLAB ExacTrac System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keeling, V; Jin, H; Hossain, S

2014-06-15

Purpose: To evaluate setup accuracy and quantify individual systematic and random errors for the various hardware and software components of the frameless 6D-BrainLAB ExacTrac system. Methods: 35 patients with cranial lesions, some with multiple isocenters (50 total lesions treated in 1, 3, 5 fractions), were investigated. All patients were simulated with a rigid head-and-neck mask and the BrainLAB localizer. CT images were transferred to the IPLAN treatment planning system where optimized plans were generated using stereotactic reference frame based on the localizer. The patients were setup initially with infrared (IR) positioning ExacTrac system. Stereoscopic X-ray images (XC: X-ray Correction) weremore » registered to their corresponding digitally-reconstructed-radiographs, based on bony anatomy matching, to calculate 6D-translational and rotational (Lateral, Longitudinal, Vertical, Pitch, Roll, Yaw) shifts. XC combines systematic errors of the mask, localizer, image registration, frame, and IR. If shifts were below tolerance (0.7 mm translational and 1 degree rotational), treatment was initiated; otherwise corrections were applied and additional X-rays were acquired to verify patient position (XV: X-ray Verification). Statistical analysis was used to extract systematic and random errors of the different components of the 6D-ExacTrac system and evaluate the cumulative setup accuracy. Results: Mask systematic errors (translational; rotational) were the largest and varied from one patient to another in the range (−15 to 4mm; −2.5 to 2.5degree) obtained from mean of XC for each patient. Setup uncertainty in IR positioning (0.97,2.47,1.62mm;0.65,0.84,0.96degree) was extracted from standard-deviation of XC. Combined systematic errors of the frame and localizer (0.32,−0.42,−1.21mm; −0.27,0.34,0.26degree) was extracted from mean of means of XC distributions. Final patient setup uncertainty was obtained from the standard deviations of XV (0.57,0.77,0.67mm,0.39,0.35,0.30degree). Conclusion: Statistical analysis was used to calculate cumulative and individual systematic errors from the different hardware and software components of the 6D-ExacTrac-system. Patients were treated with cumulative errors (<1mm,<1degree) with XV image guidance.« less

Ensemble-based uncertainty quantification for coordination and control of thermostatically controlled loads

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Weixuan; Lian, Jianming; Engel, Dave

2017-07-27

This paper presents a general uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework that provides a systematic analysis of the uncertainty involved in the modeling of a control system, and helps to improve the performance of a control strategy.

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 results: cross-correlation redshifts - methods and systematics characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gatti, M.; Vielzeuf, P.; Davis, C.; Cawthon, R.; Rau, M. M.; DeRose, J.; De Vicente, J.; Alarcon, A.; Rozo, E.; Gaztanaga, E.; Hoyle, B.; Miquel, R.; Bernstein, G. M.; Bonnett, C.; Carnero Rosell, A.; Castander, F. J.; Chang, C.; da Costa, L. N.; Gruen, D.; Gschwend, J.; Hartley, W. G.; Lin, H.; MacCrann, N.; Maia, M. A. G.; Ogando, R. L. C.; Roodman, A.; Sevilla-Noarbe, I.; Troxel, M. A.; Wechsler, R. H.; Asorey, J.; Davis, T. M.; Glazebrook, K.; Hinton, S. R.; Lewis, G.; Lidman, C.; Macaulay, E.; Möller, A.; O'Neill, C. R.; Sommer, N. E.; Uddin, S. A.; Yuan, F.; Zhang, B.; Abbott, T. M. C.; Allam, S.; Annis, J.; Bechtol, K.; Brooks, D.; Burke, D. L.; Carollo, D.; Carrasco Kind, M.; Carretero, J.; Cunha, C. E.; D'Andrea, C. B.; DePoy, D. L.; Desai, S.; Eifler, T. F.; Evrard, A. E.; Flaugher, B.; Fosalba, P.; Frieman, J.; García-Bellido, J.; Gerdes, D. W.; Goldstein, D. A.; Gruendl, R. A.; Gutierrez, G.; Honscheid, K.; Hoormann, J. K.; Jain, B.; James, D. J.; Jarvis, M.; Jeltema, T.; Johnson, M. W. G.; Johnson, M. D.; Krause, E.; Kuehn, K.; Kuhlmann, S.; Kuropatkin, N.; Li, T. S.; Lima, M.; Marshall, J. L.; Melchior, P.; Menanteau, F.; Nichol, R. C.; Nord, B.; Plazas, A. A.; Reil, K.; Rykoff, E. S.; Sako, M.; Sanchez, E.; Scarpine, V.; Schubnell, M.; Sheldon, E.; Smith, M.; Smith, R. C.; Soares-Santos, M.; Sobreira, F.; Suchyta, E.; Swanson, M. E. C.; Tarle, G.; Thomas, D.; Tucker, B. E.; Tucker, D. L.; Vikram, V.; Walker, A. R.; Weller, J.; Wester, W.; Wolf, R. C.

2018-06-01

We use numerical simulations to characterize the performance of a clustering-based method to calibrate photometric redshift biases. In particular, we cross-correlate the weak lensing source galaxies from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 sample with redMaGiC galaxies (luminous red galaxies with secure photometric redshifts) to estimate the redshift distribution of the former sample. The recovered redshift distributions are used to calibrate the photometric redshift bias of standard photo-z methods applied to the same source galaxy sample. We apply the method to two photo-z codes run in our simulated data: Bayesian Photometric Redshift and Directional Neighbourhood Fitting. We characterize the systematic uncertainties of our calibration procedure, and find that these systematic uncertainties dominate our error budget. The dominant systematics are due to our assumption of unevolving bias and clustering across each redshift bin, and to differences between the shapes of the redshift distributions derived by clustering versus photo-zs. The systematic uncertainty in the mean redshift bias of the source galaxy sample is Δz ≲ 0.02, though the precise value depends on the redshift bin under consideration. We discuss possible ways to mitigate the impact of our dominant systematics in future analyses.

The Crucial Role of Error Correlation for Uncertainty Modeling of CFD-Based Aerodynamics Increments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hemsch, Michael J.; Walker, Eric L.

2011-01-01

The Ares I ascent aerodynamics database for Design Cycle 3 (DAC-3) was built from wind-tunnel test results and CFD solutions. The wind tunnel results were used to build the baseline response surfaces for wind-tunnel Reynolds numbers at power-off conditions. The CFD solutions were used to build increments to account for Reynolds number effects. We calculate the validation errors for the primary CFD code results at wind tunnel Reynolds number power-off conditions and would like to be able to use those errors to predict the validation errors for the CFD increments. However, the validation errors are large compared to the increments. We suggest a way forward that is consistent with common practice in wind tunnel testing which is to assume that systematic errors in the measurement process and/or the environment will subtract out when increments are calculated, thus making increments more reliable with smaller uncertainty than absolute values of the aerodynamic coefficients. A similar practice has arisen for the use of CFD to generate aerodynamic database increments. The basis of this practice is the assumption of strong correlation of the systematic errors inherent in each of the results used to generate an increment. The assumption of strong correlation is the inferential link between the observed validation uncertainties at wind-tunnel Reynolds numbers and the uncertainties to be predicted for flight. In this paper, we suggest a way to estimate the correlation coefficient and demonstrate the approach using code-to-code differences that were obtained for quality control purposes during the Ares I CFD campaign. Finally, since we can expect the increments to be relatively small compared to the baseline response surface and to be typically of the order of the baseline uncertainty, we find that it is necessary to be able to show that the correlation coefficients are close to unity to avoid overinflating the overall database uncertainty with the addition of the increments.

Optimal test selection for prediction uncertainty reduction

DOE PAGES

Mullins, Joshua; Mahadevan, Sankaran; Urbina, Angel

2016-12-02

Economic factors and experimental limitations often lead to sparse and/or imprecise data used for the calibration and validation of computational models. This paper addresses resource allocation for calibration and validation experiments, in order to maximize their effectiveness within given resource constraints. When observation data are used for model calibration, the quality of the inferred parameter descriptions is directly affected by the quality and quantity of the data. This paper characterizes parameter uncertainty within a probabilistic framework, which enables the uncertainty to be systematically reduced with additional data. The validation assessment is also uncertain in the presence of sparse and imprecisemore » data; therefore, this paper proposes an approach for quantifying the resulting validation uncertainty. Since calibration and validation uncertainty affect the prediction of interest, the proposed framework explores the decision of cost versus importance of data in terms of the impact on the prediction uncertainty. Often, calibration and validation tests may be performed for different input scenarios, and this paper shows how the calibration and validation results from different conditions may be integrated into the prediction. Then, a constrained discrete optimization formulation that selects the number of tests of each type (calibration or validation at given input conditions) is proposed. Furthermore, the proposed test selection methodology is demonstrated on a microelectromechanical system (MEMS) example.« less

Erratum: Measurement of azimuthal asymmetries in inclusive production of hadron pairs in e⁺e⁻ annihilation at √s=10.58 GeV [Phys. Rev. D 78, 032011 (2008)

DOE PAGES

Seidl, R.; Grosse Perdekamp, M.; Ogawa, A.; ...

2012-08-09

In the original article, it was found in Monte Carlo simulations that the reconstructed A₀ results are roughly consistent with the generated asymmetries, while the A₁₂ results systematically underestimate the generated asymmetries. This underestimation can be attributed to the difference between the reconstructed thrust axis and the original quark-antiquark axis. The corresponding correction factors are 1.6 ± 0.04 for the A₁₂ results and 1.11 ± 0.05 for the A₀ results. Because of a flaw in the original analysis program, these correction factors were not applied to the A UC-type asymmetries in Table V as well as in some figures. Inmore » addition, a small mistake in the error propagation in the charm correction resulted in slightly underestimated statistical uncertainties. These omissions affect all but the charm asymmetry results. The correct central values are therefore given in Tables IV and V of this Erratum. The systematic uncertainties of the original publication remain unchanged.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pritychenko, B.; Mughabghab, S.F.

We present calculations of neutron thermal cross sections, Westcott factors, resonance integrals, Maxwellian-averaged cross sections and astrophysical reaction rates for 843 ENDF materials using data from the major evaluated nuclear libraries and European activation file. Extensive analysis of newly-evaluated neutron reaction cross sections, neutron covariances, and improvements in data processing techniques motivated us to calculate nuclear industry and neutron physics quantities, produce s-process Maxwellian-averaged cross sections and astrophysical reaction rates, systematically calculate uncertainties, and provide additional insights on currently available neutron-induced reaction data. Nuclear reaction calculations are discussed and new results are presented. Due to space limitations, the present papermore » contains only calculated Maxwellian-averaged cross sections and their uncertainties. The complete data sets for all results are published in the Brookhaven National Laboratory report.« less

ACCOUNTING FOR CALIBRATION UNCERTAINTIES IN X-RAY ANALYSIS: EFFECTIVE AREAS IN SPECTRAL FITTING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Hyunsook; Kashyap, Vinay L.; Drake, Jeremy J.

2011-04-20

While considerable advance has been made to account for statistical uncertainties in astronomical analyses, systematic instrumental uncertainties have been generally ignored. This can be crucial to a proper interpretation of analysis results because instrumental calibration uncertainty is a form of systematic uncertainty. Ignoring it can underestimate error bars and introduce bias into the fitted values of model parameters. Accounting for such uncertainties currently requires extensive case-specific simulations if using existing analysis packages. Here, we present general statistical methods that incorporate calibration uncertainties into spectral analysis of high-energy data. We first present a method based on multiple imputation that can bemore » applied with any fitting method, but is necessarily approximate. We then describe a more exact Bayesian approach that works in conjunction with a Markov chain Monte Carlo based fitting. We explore methods for improving computational efficiency, and in particular detail a method of summarizing calibration uncertainties with a principal component analysis of samples of plausible calibration files. This method is implemented using recently codified Chandra effective area uncertainties for low-resolution spectral analysis and is verified using both simulated and actual Chandra data. Our procedure for incorporating effective area uncertainty is easily generalized to other types of calibration uncertainties.« less

Experimental validation of a self-calibrating cryogenic mass flowmeter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janzen, A.; Boersch, M.; Burger, B.; Drache, J.; Ebersoldt, A.; Erni, P.; Feldbusch, F.; Oertig, D.; Grohmann, S.

2017-12-01

The Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) and the WEKA AG jointly develop a commercial flowmeter for application in helium cryostats. The flowmeter functions according to a new thermal measurement principle that eliminates all systematic uncertainties and enables self-calibration during real operation. Ideally, the resulting uncertainty of the measured flow rate is only dependent on signal noises, which are typically very small with regard to the measured value. Under real operating conditions, cryoplant-dependent flow rate fluctuations induce an additional uncertainty, which follows from the sensitivity of the method. This paper presents experimental results with helium at temperatures between 30 and 70 K and flow rates in the range of 4 to 12 g/s. The experiments were carried out in a control cryostat of the 2 kW helium refrigerator of the TOSKA test facility at KIT. Inside the cryostat, the new flowmeter was installed in series with a Venturi tube that was used for reference measurements. The measurement results demonstrate the self-calibration capability during real cryoplant operation. The influences of temperature and flow rate fluctuations on the self-calibration uncertainty are discussed.

The clustering of galaxies in the completed SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: theoretical systematics and Baryon Acoustic Oscillations in the galaxy correlation function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vargas-Magaña, Mariana; Ho, Shirley; Cuesta, Antonio J.; O'Connell, Ross; Ross, Ashley J.; Eisenstein, Daniel J.; Percival, Will J.; Grieb, Jan Niklas; Sánchez, Ariel G.; Tinker, Jeremy L.; Tojeiro, Rita; Beutler, Florian; Chuang, Chia-Hsun; Kitaura, Francisco-Shu; Prada, Francisco; Rodríguez-Torres, Sergio A.; Rossi, Graziano; Seo, Hee-Jong; Brownstein, Joel R.; Olmstead, Matthew; Thomas, Daniel

2018-06-01

We investigate the potential sources of theoretical systematics in the anisotropic Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) distance scale measurements from the clustering of galaxies in configuration space using the final Data Release (DR12) of the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS). We perform a detailed study of the impact on BAO measurements from choices in the methodology such as fiducial cosmology, clustering estimators, random catalogues, fitting templates, and covariance matrices. The theoretical systematic uncertainties in BAO parameters are found to be 0.002 in the isotropic dilation α and 0.003 in the quadrupolar dilation ɛ. The leading source of systematic uncertainty is related to the reconstruction techniques. Theoretical uncertainties are sub-dominant compared with the statistical uncertainties for BOSS survey, accounting 0.2σstat for α and 0.25σstat for ɛ (σα, stat ˜ 0.010 and σɛ, stat ˜ 0.012, respectively). We also present BAO-only distance scale constraints from the anisotropic analysis of the correlation function. Our constraints on the angular diameter distance DA(z) and the Hubble parameter H(z), including both statistical and theoretical systematic uncertainties, are 1.5 per cent and 2.8 per cent at zeff = 0.38, 1.4 per cent and 2.4 per cent at zeff = 0.51, and 1.7 per cent and 2.6 per cent at zeff = 0.61. This paper is part of a set that analyses the final galaxy clustering data set from BOSS. The measurements and likelihoods presented here are cross-checked with other BAO analysis in Alam et al. The systematic error budget concerning the methodology on post-reconstruction BAO analysis presented here is used in Alam et al. to produce the final cosmological constraints from BOSS.

Asteroseismic modelling of solar-type stars: internal systematics from input physics and surface correction methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nsamba, B.; Campante, T. L.; Monteiro, M. J. P. F. G.; Cunha, M. S.; Rendle, B. M.; Reese, D. R.; Verma, K.

2018-07-01

Asteroseismic forward modelling techniques are being used to determine fundamental properties (e.g. mass, radius, and age) of solar-type stars. The need to take into account all possible sources of error is of paramount importance towards a robust determination of stellar properties. We present a study of 34 solar-type stars for which high signal-to-noise asteroseismic data are available from multiyear Kepler photometry. We explore the internal systematics on the stellar properties, that is associated with the uncertainty in the input physics used to construct the stellar models. In particular, we explore the systematics arising from (i) the inclusion of the diffusion of helium and heavy elements; (ii) the uncertainty in solar metallicity mixture; and (iii) different surface correction methods used in optimization/fitting procedures. The systematics arising from comparing results of models with and without diffusion are found to be 0.5 per cent, 0.8 per cent, 2.1 per cent, and 16 per cent in mean density, radius, mass, and age, respectively. The internal systematics in age are significantly larger than the statistical uncertainties. We find the internal systematics resulting from the uncertainty in solar metallicity mixture to be 0.7 per cent in mean density, 0.5 per cent in radius, 1.4 per cent in mass, and 6.7 per cent in age. The surface correction method by Sonoi et al. and Ball & Gizon's two-term correction produce the lowest internal systematics among the different correction methods, namely, ˜1 per cent, ˜1 per cent, ˜2 per cent, and ˜8 per cent in mean density, radius, mass, and age, respectively. Stellar masses obtained using the surface correction methods by Kjeldsen et al. and Ball & Gizon's one-term correction are systematically higher than those obtained using frequency ratios.

Host Model Uncertainty in Aerosol Radiative Effects: the AeroCom Prescribed Experiment and Beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stier, Philip; Schutgens, Nick; Bian, Huisheng; Boucher, Olivier; Chin, Mian; Ghan, Steven; Huneeus, Nicolas; Kinne, Stefan; Lin, Guangxing; Myhre, Gunnar; Penner, Joyce; Randles, Cynthia; Samset, Bjorn; Schulz, Michael; Yu, Hongbin; Zhou, Cheng; Bellouin, Nicolas; Ma, Xiaoyan; Yu, Fangqun; Takemura, Toshihiko

2013-04-01

Anthropogenic and natural aerosol radiative effects are recognized to affect global and regional climate. Multi-model "diversity" in estimates of the aerosol radiative effect is often perceived as a measure of the uncertainty in modelling aerosol itself. However, current aerosol models vary considerably in model components relevant for the calculation of aerosol radiative forcings and feedbacks and the associated "host-model uncertainties" are generally convoluted with the actual uncertainty in aerosol modelling. In the AeroCom Prescribed intercomparison study we systematically isolate and quantify host model uncertainties on aerosol forcing experiments through prescription of identical aerosol radiative properties in eleven participating models. Host model errors in aerosol radiative forcing are largest in regions of uncertain host model components, such as stratocumulus cloud decks or areas with poorly constrained surface albedos, such as sea ice. Our results demonstrate that host model uncertainties are an important component of aerosol forcing uncertainty that require further attention. However, uncertainties in aerosol radiative effects also include short-term and long-term feedback processes that will be systematically explored in future intercomparison studies. Here we will present an overview of the proposals for discussion and results from early scoping studies.

Judgment under emotional certainty and uncertainty: the effects of specific emotions on information processing.

PubMed

Tiedens, L Z; Linton, S

2001-12-01

The authors argued that emotions characterized by certainty appraisals promote heuristic processing, whereas emotions characterized by uncertainty appraisals result in systematic processing. The 1st experiment demonstrated that the certainty associated with an emotion affects the certainty experienced in subsequent situations. The next 3 experiments investigated effects on processing of emotions associated with certainty and uncertainty. Compared with emotions associated with uncertainty, emotions associated with certainty resulted in greater reliance on the expertise of a source of a persuasive message in Experiment 2, more stereotyping in Experiment 3, and less attention to argument quality in Experiment 4. In contrast to previous theories linking valence and processing, these findings suggest that the certainty appraisal content of emotions is also important in determining whether people engage in systematic or heuristic processing.

In-flight calibration of Hitomi Soft X-ray Spectrometer. (3) Effective area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsujimoto, Masahiro; Okajima, Takashi; Eckart, Megan E.; Hayashi, Takayuki; Hoshino, Akio; Iizuka, Ryo; Kelley, Richard L.; Kilbourne, Caroline A.; Leutenegger, Maurice A.; Maeda, Yoshitomo; Mori, Hideyuki; Porter, Frederick S.; Sato, Kosuke; Sato, Toshiki; Serlemitsos, Peter J.; Szymkowiak, Andrew; Yaqoob, Tahir

2018-03-01

We present the result of the in-flight calibration of the effective area of the Soft X-ray Spectrometer (SXS) on board the Hitomi X-ray satellite using an observation of the Crab nebula. We corrected for artifacts when observing high count rate sources with the X-ray microcalorimeter. We then constructed a spectrum in the 0.5-20 keV band, which we modeled with a single power-law continuum attenuated by interstellar extinction. We evaluated the systematic uncertainty of the spectral parameters by various calibration items. In the 2-12 keV band, the SXS result is consistent with the literature values in flux (2.20 ± 0.08 × 10-8 erg s-1 cm-2 with a 1 σ statistical uncertainty) but is softer in the power-law index (2.19 ± 0.11). The discrepancy is attributable to the systematic uncertainty of about +6%/-7% and +2%/-5% respectively for the flux and the power-law index. The softer spectrum is affected primarily by the systematic uncertainty of the Dewar gate valve transmission and the event screening.

Reducing Uncertainties in Neutron-Induced Fission Cross Sections Using a Time Projection Chamber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manning, Brett; Niffte Collaboration

2015-10-01

Neutron-induced fission cross sections for actinides have long been of great interest for nuclear energy and stockpile stewardship. Traditionally, measurements were performed using fission chambers which provided limited information about the detected fission events. For the case of 239Pu(n,f), sensitivity studies have shown a need for more precise measurements. Recently the Neutron Induced Fission Fragment Tracking Experiment (NIFFTE) has developed the fission Time Projection Chamber (fissionTPC) to measure fission cross sections to better than 1% uncertainty by providing 3D tracking of fission fragments. The fissionTPC collected data to calculate the 239Pu(n,f) cross section at the Weapons Neutron Research facility at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center during the 2014 run cycle. Preliminary analysis has been focused on studying particle identification and target and beam non-uniformities to reduce the uncertainty on the cross section. Additionally, the collaboration is investigating other systematic errors that could not be well studied with a traditional fission chamber. LA-UR-15-24906.

Multi-thresholds for fault isolation in the presence of uncertainties.

PubMed

Touati, Youcef; Mellal, Mohamed Arezki; Benazzouz, Djamel

2016-05-01

Monitoring of the faults is an important task in mechatronics. It involves the detection and isolation of faults which are performed by using the residuals. These residuals represent numerical values that define certain intervals called thresholds. In fact, the fault is detected if the residuals exceed the thresholds. In addition, each considered fault must activate a unique set of residuals to be isolated. However, in the presence of uncertainties, false decisions can occur due to the low sensitivity of certain residuals towards faults. In this paper, an efficient approach to make decision on fault isolation in the presence of uncertainties is proposed. Based on the bond graph tool, the approach is developed in order to generate systematically the relations between residuals and faults. The generated relations allow the estimation of the minimum detectable and isolable fault values. The latter is used to calculate the thresholds of isolation for each residual. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multifidelity Analysis and Optimization for Supersonic Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kroo, Ilan; Willcox, Karen; March, Andrew; Haas, Alex; Rajnarayan, Dev; Kays, Cory

2010-01-01

Supersonic aircraft design is a computationally expensive optimization problem and multifidelity approaches over a significant opportunity to reduce design time and computational cost. This report presents tools developed to improve supersonic aircraft design capabilities including: aerodynamic tools for supersonic aircraft configurations; a systematic way to manage model uncertainty; and multifidelity model management concepts that incorporate uncertainty. The aerodynamic analysis tools developed are appropriate for use in a multifidelity optimization framework, and include four analysis routines to estimate the lift and drag of a supersonic airfoil, a multifidelity supersonic drag code that estimates the drag of aircraft configurations with three different methods: an area rule method, a panel method, and an Euler solver. In addition, five multifidelity optimization methods are developed, which include local and global methods as well as gradient-based and gradient-free techniques.

Capsule Performance Optimization in the National Ignition Campaign

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Landen, O L; MacGowan, B J; Haan, S W

2009-10-13

A capsule performance optimization campaign will be conducted at the National Ignition Facility to substantially increase the probability of ignition. The campaign will experimentally correct for residual uncertainties in the implosion and hohlraum physics used in our radiation-hydrodynamic computational models before proceeding to cryogenic-layered implosions and ignition attempts. The required tuning techniques using a variety of ignition capsule surrogates have been demonstrated at the Omega facility under scaled hohlraum and capsule conditions relevant to the ignition design and shown to meet the required sensitivity and accuracy. In addition, a roll-up of all expected random and systematic uncertainties in setting themore » key ignition laser and target parameters due to residual measurement, calibration, cross-coupling, surrogacy, and scale-up errors has been derived that meets the required budget.« less

Capsule performance optimization in the national ignition campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landen, O. L.; MacGowan, B. J.; Haan, S. W.; Edwards, J.

2010-08-01

A capsule performance optimization campaign will be conducted at the National Ignition Facility [1] to substantially increase the probability of ignition. The campaign will experimentally correct for residual uncertainties in the implosion and hohlraum physics used in our radiation-hydrodynamic computational models before proceeding to cryogenic-layered implosions and ignition attempts. The required tuning techniques using a variety of ignition capsule surrogates have been demonstrated at the Omega facility under scaled hohlraum and capsule conditions relevant to the ignition design and shown to meet the required sensitivity and accuracy. In addition, a roll-up of all expected random and systematic uncertainties in setting the key ignition laser and target parameters due to residual measurement, calibration, cross-coupling, surrogacy, and scale-up errors has been derived that meets the required budget.

Combined influence of CT random noise and HU-RSP calibration curve nonlinearities on proton range systematic errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brousmiche, S.; Souris, K.; Orban de Xivry, J.; Lee, J. A.; Macq, B.; Seco, J.

2017-11-01

Proton range random and systematic uncertainties are the major factors undermining the advantages of proton therapy, namely, a sharp dose falloff and a better dose conformality for lower doses in normal tissues. The influence of CT artifacts such as beam hardening or scatter can easily be understood and estimated due to their large-scale effects on the CT image, like cupping and streaks. In comparison, the effects of weakly-correlated stochastic noise are more insidious and less attention is drawn on them partly due to the common belief that they only contribute to proton range uncertainties and not to systematic errors thanks to some averaging effects. A new source of systematic errors on the range and relative stopping powers (RSP) has been highlighted and proved not to be negligible compared to the 3.5% uncertainty reference value used for safety margin design. Hence, we demonstrate that the angular points in the HU-to-RSP calibration curve are an intrinsic source of proton range systematic error for typical levels of zero-mean stochastic CT noise. Systematic errors on RSP of up to 1% have been computed for these levels. We also show that the range uncertainty does not generally vary linearly with the noise standard deviation. We define a noise-dependent effective calibration curve that better describes, for a given material, the RSP value that is actually used. The statistics of the RSP and the range continuous slowing down approximation (CSDA) have been analytically derived for the general case of a calibration curve obtained by the stoichiometric calibration procedure. These models have been validated against actual CSDA simulations for homogeneous and heterogeneous synthetical objects as well as on actual patient CTs for prostate and head-and-neck treatment planning situations.

Uncertainty quantification and validation of 3D lattice scaffolds for computer-aided biomedical applications.

PubMed

Gorguluarslan, Recep M; Choi, Seung-Kyum; Saldana, Christopher J

2017-07-01

A methodology is proposed for uncertainty quantification and validation to accurately predict the mechanical response of lattice structures used in the design of scaffolds. Effective structural properties of the scaffolds are characterized using a developed multi-level stochastic upscaling process that propagates the quantified uncertainties at strut level to the lattice structure level. To obtain realistic simulation models for the stochastic upscaling process and minimize the experimental cost, high-resolution finite element models of individual struts were reconstructed from the micro-CT scan images of lattice structures which are fabricated by selective laser melting. The upscaling method facilitates the process of determining homogenized strut properties to reduce the computational cost of the detailed simulation model for the scaffold. Bayesian Information Criterion is utilized to quantify the uncertainties with parametric distributions based on the statistical data obtained from the reconstructed strut models. A systematic validation approach that can minimize the experimental cost is also developed to assess the predictive capability of the stochastic upscaling method used at the strut level and lattice structure level. In comparison with physical compression test results, the proposed methodology of linking the uncertainty quantification with the multi-level stochastic upscaling method enabled an accurate prediction of the elastic behavior of the lattice structure with minimal experimental cost by accounting for the uncertainties induced by the additive manufacturing process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: Cross-Correlation Redshifts - Methods and Systematics Characterization

DOE PAGES

Gatti, M.

2018-02-22

We use numerical simulations to characterize the performance of a clustering-based method to calibrate photometric redshift biases. In particular, we cross-correlate the weak lensing (WL) source galaxies from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES Y1) sample with redMaGiC galaxies (luminous red galaxies with secure photometric red- shifts) to estimate the redshift distribution of the former sample. The recovered redshift distributions are used to calibrate the photometric redshift bias of standard photo-z methods applied to the same source galaxy sample. We also apply the method to three photo-z codes run in our simulated data: Bayesian Photometric Redshift (BPZ), Directional Neighborhoodmore » Fitting (DNF), and Random Forest-based photo-z (RF). We characterize the systematic uncertainties of our calibration procedure, and find that these systematic uncertainties dominate our error budget. The dominant systematics are due to our assumption of unevolving bias and clustering across each redshift bin, and to differences between the shapes of the redshift distributions derived by clustering vs photo-z's. The systematic uncertainty in the mean redshift bias of the source galaxy sample is z ≲ 0.02, though the precise value depends on the redshift bin under consideration. Here, we discuss possible ways to mitigate the impact of our dominant systematics in future analyses.« less

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: Cross-Correlation Redshifts - Methods and Systematics Characterization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gatti, M.

We use numerical simulations to characterize the performance of a clustering-based method to calibrate photometric redshift biases. In particular, we cross-correlate the weak lensing (WL) source galaxies from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES Y1) sample with redMaGiC galaxies (luminous red galaxies with secure photometric red- shifts) to estimate the redshift distribution of the former sample. The recovered redshift distributions are used to calibrate the photometric redshift bias of standard photo-z methods applied to the same source galaxy sample. We also apply the method to three photo-z codes run in our simulated data: Bayesian Photometric Redshift (BPZ), Directional Neighborhoodmore » Fitting (DNF), and Random Forest-based photo-z (RF). We characterize the systematic uncertainties of our calibration procedure, and find that these systematic uncertainties dominate our error budget. The dominant systematics are due to our assumption of unevolving bias and clustering across each redshift bin, and to differences between the shapes of the redshift distributions derived by clustering vs photo-z's. The systematic uncertainty in the mean redshift bias of the source galaxy sample is z ≲ 0.02, though the precise value depends on the redshift bin under consideration. Here, we discuss possible ways to mitigate the impact of our dominant systematics in future analyses.« less

Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality.

PubMed

Gosling, Simon N; Hondula, David M; Bunker, Aditi; Ibarreta, Dolores; Liu, Junguo; Zhang, Xinxin; Sauerborn, Rainer

2017-08-16

Multiple methods are employed for modeling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known about the relative sensitivity of impacts to "adaptation uncertainty" (i.e., the inclusion/exclusion of adaptation modeling) relative to using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios. This study had three aims: a ) Compare the range in projected impacts that arises from using different adaptation modeling methods; b ) compare the range in impacts that arises from adaptation uncertainty with ranges from using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios; c ) recommend modeling method(s) to use in future impact assessments. We estimated impacts for 2070-2099 for 14 European cities, applying six different methods for modeling adaptation; we also estimated impacts with five climate models run under two emissions scenarios to explore the relative effects of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. The range of the difference (percent) in impacts between including and excluding adaptation, irrespective of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty, can be as low as 28% with one method and up to 103% with another (mean across 14 cities). In 13 of 14 cities, the ranges in projected impacts due to adaptation uncertainty are larger than those associated with climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. Researchers should carefully consider how to model adaptation because it is a source of uncertainty that can be greater than the uncertainty in emissions and climate modeling. We recommend absolute threshold shifts and reductions in slope. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP634.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bao, C.; Hanany, S.; Baccigalupi, C.

We extend a general maximum likelihood foreground estimation for cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization data to include estimation of instrumental systematic effects. We focus on two particular effects: frequency band measurement uncertainty and instrumentally induced frequency dependent polarization rotation. We assess the bias induced on the estimation of the B-mode polarization signal by these two systematic effects in the presence of instrumental noise and uncertainties in the polarization and spectral index of Galactic dust. Degeneracies between uncertainties in the band and polarization angle calibration measurements and in the dust spectral index and polarization increase the uncertainty in the extracted CMBmore » B-mode power, and may give rise to a biased estimate. We provide a quantitative assessment of the potential bias and increased uncertainty in an example experimental configuration. For example, we find that with 10% polarized dust, a tensor to scalar ratio of r = 0.05, and the instrumental configuration of the E and B experiment balloon payload, the estimated CMB B-mode power spectrum is recovered without bias when the frequency band measurement has 5% uncertainty or less, and the polarization angle calibration has an uncertainty of up to 4°.« less

Improving Photometric Calibration of Meteor Video Camera Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ehlert, Steven; Kingery, Aaron; Suggs, Robert

2016-01-01

We present the results of new calibration tests performed by the NASA Meteoroid Environment Oce (MEO) designed to help quantify and minimize systematic uncertainties in meteor photometry from video camera observations. These systematic uncertainties can be categorized by two main sources: an imperfect understanding of the linearity correction for the MEO's Watec 902H2 Ultimate video cameras and uncertainties in meteor magnitudes arising from transformations between the Watec camera's Sony EX-View HAD bandpass and the bandpasses used to determine reference star magnitudes. To address the rst point, we have measured the linearity response of the MEO's standard meteor video cameras using two independent laboratory tests on eight cameras. Our empirically determined linearity correction is critical for performing accurate photometry at low camera intensity levels. With regards to the second point, we have calculated synthetic magnitudes in the EX bandpass for reference stars. These synthetic magnitudes enable direct calculations of the meteor's photometric ux within the camera band-pass without requiring any assumptions of its spectral energy distribution. Systematic uncertainties in the synthetic magnitudes of individual reference stars are estimated at 0:20 mag, and are limited by the available spectral information in the reference catalogs. These two improvements allow for zero-points accurate to 0:05 ?? 0:10 mag in both ltered and un ltered camera observations with no evidence for lingering systematics.

Beyond procedure's content: the role of accessibility experiences and personal uncertainty in procedural justice judgements.

PubMed

Greifeneder, Rainer; Müller, Patrick; Stahlberg, Dagmar; Van den Bos, Kees; Bless, Herbert

2011-01-01

Procedural justice concerns play a critical role in economic settings, politics, and other domains of human life. Despite the vast evidence corroborating their relevance, considerably less is known about how procedural justice judgments are formed. Whereas earlier theorizing focused on the systematic integration of content information, the present contribution provides a new perspective on the formation of justice judgments by examining the influence of accessibility experiences. Specifically, we hypothesize that procedural justice judgments may be formed based on the ease or difficulty with which justice-relevant information comes to mind. Three experiments corroborate this prediction in that procedures were evaluated less positively when the retrieval of associated unfair aspects was easy compared to difficult. Presumably this is because when it feels easy (difficult) to retrieve unfair aspects, these are perceived as frequent (infrequent), and hence the procedure as unjust (just). In addition to demonstrating that ease-of-retrieval may influence justice judgments, the studies further revealed that reliance on accessibility experiences is high in conditions of personal certainty. We suggest that this is because personal uncertainty fosters systematic processing of content information, whereas personal certainty may invite less taxing judgmental strategies such as reliance on ease-of-retrieval.

CHEERS: Chemical enrichment of clusters of galaxies measured using a large XMM-Newton sample

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Plaa, J.; Mernier, F.; Kaastra, J.; Pinto, C.

2017-10-01

The Chemical Enrichment RGS Sample (CHEERS) is aimed to be a sample of the most optimal clusters of galaxies for observation with the Reflection Grating Spectrometer (RGS) aboard XMM-Newton. It consists of 5 Ms of deep cluster observations of 44 objects obtained through a very large program and archival observations. The main goal is to measure chemical abundances in the hot Intra-Cluster Medium (ICM) of clusters to provide constraints on chemical evolution models. Especially the origin and evolution of type Ia supernovae is still poorly known and X-ray observations could contribute to constrain models regarding the SNIa explosion mechanism. Due to the high quality of the data, the uncertainties on the abundances are dominated by systematic effects. By carefully treating each systematic effect, we increase the accuracy or estimate the remaining uncertainty on the measurement. The resulting abundances are then compared to supernova models. In addition, also radial abundance profiles are derived. In the talk, we present an overview of the results that the CHEERS collaboration obtained based on the CHEERS data. We focus on the abundance measurements. The other topics range from turbulence measurements through line broadening to cool gas in groups.

Vitamin D: Moving Forward to Address Emerging Science

PubMed Central

Sempos, Christopher T.; Davis, Cindy D.; Brannon, Patsy M.

2017-01-01

The science surrounding vitamin D presents both challenges and opportunities. Although many uncertainties are associated with the understandings concerning vitamin D, including its physiological function, the effects of excessive intake, and its role in health, it is at the same time a major interest in the research and health communities. The approach to evaluating and interpreting the available evidence about vitamin D should be founded on the quality of the data and on the conclusions that take into account the totality of the evidence. In addition, these activities can be used to identify critical data gaps and to help structure future research. The Office of Dietary Supplements (ODS) at the National Institutes of Health has as part of its mission the goal of supporting research and dialogues for topics with uncertain data, including vitamin D. This review considers vitamin D in the context of systematically addressing the uncertainty and in identifying research needs through the filter of the work of ODS. The focus includes the role of systematic reviews, activities that encompass considerations of the totality of the evidence, and collaborative activities to clarify unknowns or to fix methodological problems, as well as a case study using the relationship between cancer and vitamin D. PMID:29194368

Quantifying Uncertainties in Land Surface Microwave Emissivity Retrievals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tian, Yudong; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Harrison, Kenneth W.; Prigent, Catherine; Norouzi, Hamidreza; Aires, Filipe; Boukabara, Sid-Ahmed; Furuzawa, Fumie A.; Masunaga, Hirohiko

2012-01-01

Uncertainties in the retrievals of microwave land surface emissivities were quantified over two types of land surfaces: desert and tropical rainforest. Retrievals from satellite-based microwave imagers, including SSM/I, TMI and AMSR-E, were studied. Our results show that there are considerable differences between the retrievals from different sensors and from different groups over these two land surface types. In addition, the mean emissivity values show different spectral behavior across the frequencies. With the true emissivity assumed largely constant over both of the two sites throughout the study period, the differences are largely attributed to the systematic and random errors in the retrievals. Generally these retrievals tend to agree better at lower frequencies than at higher ones, with systematic differences ranging 14% (312 K) over desert and 17% (320 K) over rainforest. The random errors within each retrieval dataset are in the range of 0.52% (26 K). In particular, at 85.0/89.0 GHz, there are very large differences between the different retrieval datasets, and within each retrieval dataset itself. Further investigation reveals that these differences are mostly likely caused by rain/cloud contamination, which can lead to random errors up to 1017 K under the most severe conditions.

First Year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe(WMAP) Observations: Data Processing Methods and Systematic Errors Limits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hinshaw, G.; Barnes, C.; Bennett, C. L.; Greason, M. R.; Halpern, M.; Hill, R. S.; Jarosik, N.; Kogut, A.; Limon, M.; Meyer, S. S.

2003-01-01

We describe the calibration and data processing methods used to generate full-sky maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) from the first year of Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) observations. Detailed limits on residual systematic errors are assigned based largely on analyses of the flight data supplemented, where necessary, with results from ground tests. The data are calibrated in flight using the dipole modulation of the CMB due to the observatory's motion around the Sun. This constitutes a full-beam calibration source. An iterative algorithm simultaneously fits the time-ordered data to obtain calibration parameters and pixelized sky map temperatures. The noise properties are determined by analyzing the time-ordered data with this sky signal estimate subtracted. Based on this, we apply a pre-whitening filter to the time-ordered data to remove a low level of l/f noise. We infer and correct for a small (approx. 1 %) transmission imbalance between the two sky inputs to each differential radiometer, and we subtract a small sidelobe correction from the 23 GHz (K band) map prior to further analysis. No other systematic error corrections are applied to the data. Calibration and baseline artifacts, including the response to environmental perturbations, are negligible. Systematic uncertainties are comparable to statistical uncertainties in the characterization of the beam response. Both are accounted for in the covariance matrix of the window function and are propagated to uncertainties in the final power spectrum. We characterize the combined upper limits to residual systematic uncertainties through the pixel covariance matrix.

SU-E-T-292: Sensitivity of Fractionated Lung IMPT Treatments to Setup Uncertainties and Motion Effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dowdell, S; Grassberger, C; Paganetti, H

2014-06-01

Purpose: Evaluate the sensitivity of intensity-modulated proton therapy (IMPT) lung treatments to systematic and random setup uncertainties combined with motion effects. Methods: Treatment plans with single-field homogeneity restricted to ±20% (IMPT-20%) were compared to plans with no restriction (IMPT-full). 4D Monte Carlo simulations were performed for 10 lung patients using the patient CT geometry with either ±5mm systematic or random setup uncertainties applied over a 35 × 2.5Gy(RBE) fractionated treatment course. Intra-fraction, inter-field and inter-fraction motions were investigated. 50 fractionated treatments with systematic or random setup uncertainties applied to each fraction were generated for both IMPT delivery methods and threemore » energy-dependent spot sizes (big spots - BS σ=18-9mm, intermediate spots - IS σ=11-5mm, small spots - SS σ=4-2mm). These results were compared to a Monte Carlo recalculation of the original treatment plan, with results presented as the difference in EUD (ΔEUD), V{sub 95} (ΔV{sub 95}) and target homogeneity (ΔD{sub 1}–D{sub 99}) between the 4D simulations and the Monte Carlo calculation on the planning CT. Results: The standard deviations in the ΔEUD were 1.95±0.47(BS), 1.85±0.66(IS) and 1.31±0.35(SS) times higher in IMPT-full compared to IMPT-20% when ±5mm systematic setup uncertainties were applied. The ΔV{sub 95} variations were also 1.53±0.26(BS), 1.60±0.50(IS) and 1.38±0.38(SS) times higher for IMPT-full. For random setup uncertainties, the standard deviations of the ΔEUD from 50 simulated fractionated treatments were 1.94±0.90(BS), 2.13±1.08(IS) and 1.45±0.57(SS) times higher in IMPTfull compared to IMPT-20%. For all spot sizes considered, the ΔD{sub 1}-D{sub 99} coincided within the uncertainty limits for the two IMPT delivery methods, with the mean value always higher for IMPT-full. Statistical analysis showed significant differences between the IMPT-full and IMPT-20% dose distributions for the majority of scenarios studied. Conclusion: Lung IMPT-full treatments are more sensitive to both systematic and random setup uncertainties compared to IMPT-20%. This work was supported by the NIH R01 CA111590.« less

The Scientific Basis of Uncertainty Factors Used in Setting Occupational Exposure Limits.

PubMed

Dankovic, D A; Naumann, B D; Maier, A; Dourson, M L; Levy, L S

2015-01-01

The uncertainty factor concept is integrated into health risk assessments for all aspects of public health practice, including by most organizations that derive occupational exposure limits. The use of uncertainty factors is predicated on the assumption that a sufficient reduction in exposure from those at the boundary for the onset of adverse effects will yield a safe exposure level for at least the great majority of the exposed population, including vulnerable subgroups. There are differences in the application of the uncertainty factor approach among groups that conduct occupational assessments; however, there are common areas of uncertainty which are considered by all or nearly all occupational exposure limit-setting organizations. Five key uncertainties that are often examined include interspecies variability in response when extrapolating from animal studies to humans, response variability in humans, uncertainty in estimating a no-effect level from a dose where effects were observed, extrapolation from shorter duration studies to a full life-time exposure, and other insufficiencies in the overall health effects database indicating that the most sensitive adverse effect may not have been evaluated. In addition, a modifying factor is used by some organizations to account for other remaining uncertainties-typically related to exposure scenarios or accounting for the interplay among the five areas noted above. Consideration of uncertainties in occupational exposure limit derivation is a systematic process whereby the factors applied are not arbitrary, although they are mathematically imprecise. As the scientific basis for uncertainty factor application has improved, default uncertainty factors are now used only in the absence of chemical-specific data, and the trend is to replace them with chemical-specific adjustment factors whenever possible. The increased application of scientific data in the development of uncertainty factors for individual chemicals also has the benefit of increasing the transparency of occupational exposure limit derivation. Improved characterization of the scientific basis for uncertainty factors has led to increasing rigor and transparency in their application as part of the overall occupational exposure limit derivation process.

Determination of electron beam polarization using electron detector in Compton polarimeter with less than 1% statistical and systematic uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Narayan, Amrendra

2015-05-01

The Q-weak experiment aims to measure the weak charge of proton with a precision of 4.2%. The proposed precision on weak charge required a 2.5% measurement of the parity violating asymmetry in elastic electron - proton scattering. Polarimetry was the largest experimental contribution to this uncertainty and a new Compton polarimeter was installed in Hall C at Jefferson Lab to make the goal achievable. In this polarimeter the electron beam collides with green laser light in a low gain Fabry-Perot Cavity; the scattered electrons are detected in 4 planes of a novel diamond micro strip detector while the back scatteredmore » photons are detected in lead tungstate crystals. This diamond micro-strip detector is the first such device to be used as a tracking detector in a nuclear and particle physics experiment. The diamond detectors are read out using custom built electronic modules that include a preamplifier, a pulse shaping amplifier and a discriminator for each detector micro-strip. We use field programmable gate array based general purpose logic modules for event selection and histogramming. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations and data acquisition simulations were performed to estimate the systematic uncertainties. Additionally, the Moller and Compton polarimeters were cross calibrated at low electron beam currents using a series of interleaved measurements. In this dissertation, we describe all the subsystems of the Compton polarimeter with emphasis on the electron detector. We focus on the FPGA based data acquisition system built by the author and the data analysis methods implemented by the author. The simulations of the data acquisition and the polarimeter that helped rigorously establish the systematic uncertainties of the polarimeter are also elaborated, resulting in the first sub 1% measurement of low energy (?1 GeV) electron beam polarization with a Compton electron detector. We have demonstrated that diamond based micro-strip detectors can be used for tracking in a high radiation environment and it has enabled us to achieve the desired precision in the measurement of the electron beam polarization which in turn has allowed the most precise determination of the weak charge of the proton.« less

Phobos laser ranging: Numerical Geodesy experiments for Martian system science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dirkx, D.; Vermeersen, L. L. A.; Noomen, R.; Visser, P. N. A. M.

2014-09-01

Laser ranging is emerging as a technology for use over (inter)planetary distances, having the advantage of high (mm-cm) precision and accuracy and low mass and power consumption. We have performed numerical simulations to assess the science return in terms of geodetic observables of a hypothetical Phobos lander performing active two-way laser ranging with Earth-based stations. We focus our analysis on the estimation of Phobos and Mars gravitational, tidal and rotational parameters. We explicitly include systematic error sources in addition to uncorrelated random observation errors. This is achieved through the use of consider covariance parameters, specifically the ground station position and observation biases. Uncertainties for the consider parameters are set at 5 mm and at 1 mm for the Gaussian uncorrelated observation noise (for an observation integration time of 60 s). We perform the analysis for a mission duration up to 5 years. It is shown that a Phobos Laser Ranging (PLR) can contribute to a better understanding of the Martian system, opening the possibility for improved determination of a variety of physical parameters of Mars and Phobos. The simulations show that the mission concept is especially suited for estimating Mars tidal deformation parameters, estimating degree 2 Love numbers with absolute uncertainties at the 10-2 to 10-4 level after 1 and 4 years, respectively and providing separate estimates for the Martian quality factors at Sun and Phobos-forced frequencies. The estimation of Phobos libration amplitudes and gravity field coefficients provides an estimate of Phobos' relative equatorial and polar moments of inertia with an absolute uncertainty of 10-4 and 10-7, respectively, after 1 year. The observation of Phobos tidal deformation will be able to differentiate between a rubble pile and monolithic interior within 2 years. For all parameters, systematic errors have a much stronger influence (per unit uncertainty) than the uncorrelated Gaussian observation noise. This indicates the need for the inclusion of systematic errors in simulation studies and special attention to the mitigation of these errors in mission and system design.

Determination of electron beam polarization using electron detector in Compton polarimeter with less than 1% statistical and systematic uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narayan, Amrendra

The Q-weak experiment aims to measure the weak charge of proton with a precision of 4.2%. The proposed precision on weak charge required a 2.5% measurement of the parity violating asymmetry in elastic electron - proton scattering. Polarimetry was the largest experimental contribution to this uncertainty and a new Compton polarimeter was installed in Hall C at Jefferson Lab to make the goal achievable. In this polarimeter the electron beam collides with green laser light in a low gain Fabry-Perot Cavity; the scattered electrons are detected in 4 planes of a novel diamond micro strip detector while the back scattered photons are detected in lead tungstate crystals. This diamond micro-strip detector is the first such device to be used as a tracking detector in a nuclear and particle physics experiment. The diamond detectors are read out using custom built electronic modules that include a preamplifier, a pulse shaping amplifier and a discriminator for each detector micro-strip. We use field programmable gate array based general purpose logic modules for event selection and histogramming. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations and data acquisition simulations were performed to estimate the systematic uncertainties. Additionally, the Moller and Compton polarimeters were cross calibrated at low electron beam currents using a series of interleaved measurements. In this dissertation, we describe all the subsystems of the Compton polarimeter with emphasis on the electron detector. We focus on the FPGA based data acquisition system built by the author and the data analysis methods implemented by the author. The simulations of the data acquisition and the polarimeter that helped rigorously establish the systematic uncertainties of the polarimeter are also elaborated, resulting in the first sub 1% measurement of low energy (~1GeV) electron beam polarization with a Compton electron detector. We have demonstrated that diamond based micro-strip detectors can be used for tracking in a high radiation environment and it has enabled us to achieve the desired precision in the measurement of the electron beam polarization which in turn has allowed the most precise determination of the weak charge of the proton.

Strong-lensing analysis of A2744 with MUSE and Hubble Frontier Fields images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahler, G.; Richard, J.; Clément, B.; Lagattuta, D.; Schmidt, K.; Patrício, V.; Soucail, G.; Bacon, R.; Pello, R.; Bouwens, R.; Maseda, M.; Martinez, J.; Carollo, M.; Inami, H.; Leclercq, F.; Wisotzki, L.

2018-01-01

We present an analysis of Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer (MUSE) observations obtained on the massive Frontier Fields (FFs) cluster A2744. This new data set covers the entire multiply imaged region around the cluster core. The combined catalogue consists of 514 spectroscopic redshifts (with 414 new identifications). We use this redshift information to perform a strong-lensing analysis revising multiple images previously found in the deep FF images, and add three new MUSE-detected multiply imaged systems with no obvious Hubble Space Telescope counterpart. The combined strong-lensing constraints include a total of 60 systems producing 188 images altogether, out of which 29 systems and 83 images are spectroscopically confirmed, making A2744 one of the most well-constrained clusters to date. Thanks to the large amount of spectroscopic redshifts, we model the influence of substructures at larger radii, using a parametrization including two cluster-scale components in the cluster core and several group scale in the outskirts. The resulting model accurately reproduces all the spectroscopic multiple systems, reaching an rms of 0.67 arcsec in the image plane. The large number of MUSE spectroscopic redshifts gives us a robust model, which we estimate reduces the systematic uncertainty on the 2D mass distribution by up to ∼2.5 times the statistical uncertainty in the cluster core. In addition, from a combination of the parametrization and the set of constraints, we estimate the relative systematic uncertainty to be up to 9 per cent at 200 kpc.

Uncertainty quantification of effective nuclear interactions

DOE PAGES

Pérez, R. Navarro; Amaro, J. E.; Arriola, E. Ruiz

2016-03-02

We give a brief review on the development of phenomenological NN interactions and the corresponding quanti cation of statistical uncertainties. We look into the uncertainty of effective interactions broadly used in mean eld calculations through the Skyrme parameters and effective eld theory counter-terms by estimating both statistical and systematic uncertainties stemming from the NN interaction. We also comment on the role played by different tting strategies on the light of recent developments.

Uncertainty quantification of effective nuclear interactions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pérez, R. Navarro; Amaro, J. E.; Arriola, E. Ruiz

We give a brief review on the development of phenomenological NN interactions and the corresponding quanti cation of statistical uncertainties. We look into the uncertainty of effective interactions broadly used in mean eld calculations through the Skyrme parameters and effective eld theory counter-terms by estimating both statistical and systematic uncertainties stemming from the NN interaction. We also comment on the role played by different tting strategies on the light of recent developments.

Erratum: Evidence of b -jet quenching in PbPb collisions at s N N = 2.76 TeV [Phys. Rev. Lett. 113 , 132301 (2014)

DOE PAGES

Chatrchyan, S.

2015-07-10

In our Letter, there was a component of the statistical uncertainty from the simulated PbPb Monte Carlo samples. This uncertainty was not propagated to all of the results. Figures 3 and 4 have been updated to reflect this source of uncertainty. In this case, the statistical uncertainties remain smaller than the systematic uncertainties in all cases such that the conclusions of the Letter are unaltered.

Accounting for uncertainty in the quantification of the environmental impacts of Canadian pig farming systems.

PubMed

Mackenzie, S G; Leinonen, I; Ferguson, N; Kyriazakis, I

2015-06-01

The objective of the study was to develop a life cycle assessment (LCA) for pig farming systems that would account for uncertainty and variability in input data and allow systematic environmental impact comparisons between production systems. The environmental impacts of commercial pig production for 2 regions in Canada (Eastern and Western) were compared using a cradle-to-farm gate LCA. These systems had important contrasting characteristics such as typical feed ingredients used, herd performance, and expected emission factors from manure management. The study used detailed production data supplied by the industry and incorporated uncertainty/variation in all major aspects of the system including life cycle inventory data for feed ingredients, animal performance, energy inputs, and emission factors. The impacts were defined using 5 metrics-global warming potential, acidification potential, eutrophication potential (EP), abiotic resource use, and nonrenewable energy use-and were expressed per kilogram carcass weight at farm gate. Eutrophication potential was further separated into marine EP (MEP) and freshwater EP (FEP). Uncertainties in the model inputs were separated into 2 types: uncertainty in the data used to describe the system (α uncertainties) and uncertainty in impact calculations or background data that affects all systems equally (β uncertainties). The impacts of pig production in the 2 regions were systematically compared based on the differences in the systems (α uncertainties). The method of ascribing uncertainty influenced the outcomes. In eastern systems, EP, MEP, and FEP were lower (P < 0.05) when assuming that all uncertainty in the emission factors for leaching from manure application was β. This was mainly due to increased EP resulting from field emissions for typical ingredients in western diets. When uncertainty in these emission factors was assumed to be α, only FEP was lower in eastern systems (P < 0.05). The environmental impacts for the other impact categories were not significantly different between the 2 systems, despite their aforementioned differences. In conclusion, a probabilistic approach was used to develop an LCA that systematically dealt with uncertainty in the data when comparing multiple environmental impacts measures in pig farming systems for the first time. The method was used to identify differences between Canadian pig production systems but can also be applied for comparisons between other agricultural systems that include inherent variation.

Systematic errors in long baseline oscillation experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harris, Deborah A.; /Fermilab

This article gives a brief overview of long baseline neutrino experiments and their goals, and then describes the different kinds of systematic errors that are encountered in these experiments. Particular attention is paid to the uncertainties that come about because of imperfect knowledge of neutrino cross sections and more generally how neutrinos interact in nuclei. Near detectors are planned for most of these experiments, and the extent to which certain uncertainties can be reduced by the presence of near detectors is also discussed.

Leaf area index uncertainty estimates for model-data fusion applications

Treesearch

Andrew D. Richardson; D. Bryan Dail; D.Y. Hollinger

2011-01-01

Estimates of data uncertainties are required to integrate different observational data streams as model constraints using model-data fusion. We describe an approach with which random and systematic uncertainties in optical measurements of leaf area index [LAI] can be quantified. We use data from a measurement campaign at the spruce-dominated Howland Forest AmeriFlux...

Interstellar Flow and Temperature Determination with IBEX: Robustness and Sensitivity to Systematic Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Möbius, E.; Bzowski, M.; Frisch, P. C.; Fuselier, S. A.; Heirtzler, D.; Kubiak, M. A.; Kucharek, H.; Lee, M. A.; Leonard, T.; McComas, D. J.; Schwadron, N. A.; Sokół, J. M.; Swaczyna, P.; Wurz, P.

2015-10-01

The Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) samples the interstellar neutral (ISN) gas flow of several species every year from December through late March when the Earth moves into the incoming flow. The first quantitative analyses of these data resulted in a narrow tube in four-dimensional interstellar parameter space, which couples speed, flow latitude, flow longitude, and temperature, and center values with approximately 3° larger longitude and 3 km s-1 lower speed, but with temperatures similar to those obtained from observations by the Ulysses spacecraft. IBEX has now recorded six years of ISN flow observations, providing a large database over increasing solar activity and using varying viewing strategies. In this paper, we evaluate systematic effects that are important for the ISN flow vector and temperature determination. We find that all models in use return ISN parameters well within the observational uncertainties and that the derived ISN flow direction is resilient against uncertainties in the ionization rate. We establish observationally an effective IBEX-Lo pointing uncertainty of ±0.°18 in spin angle and confirm an uncertainty of ±0.°1 in longitude. We also show that the IBEX viewing strategy with different spin-axis orientations minimizes the impact of several systematic uncertainties, and thus improves the robustness of the measurement. The Helium Warm Breeze has likely contributed substantially to the somewhat different center values of the ISN flow vector. By separating the flow vector and temperature determination, we can mitigate these effects on the analysis, which returns an ISN flow vector very close to the Ulysses results, but with a substantially higher temperature. Due to coupling with the ISN flow speed along the ISN parameter tube, we provide the temperature {T}{VISN∞ }=8710+440/-680 K for {V}{ISN∞ }=26 {km} {{{s}}}-1 for comparison, where most of the uncertainty is systematic and likely due to the presence of the Warm Breeze.

Characterizing spatial uncertainty when integrating social data in conservation planning.

PubMed

Lechner, A M; Raymond, C M; Adams, V M; Polyakov, M; Gordon, A; Rhodes, J R; Mills, M; Stein, A; Ives, C D; Lefroy, E C

2014-12-01

Recent conservation planning studies have presented approaches for integrating spatially referenced social (SRS) data with a view to improving the feasibility of conservation action. We reviewed the growing conservation literature on SRS data, focusing on elicited or stated preferences derived through social survey methods such as choice experiments and public participation geographic information systems. Elicited SRS data includes the spatial distribution of willingness to sell, willingness to pay, willingness to act, and assessments of social and cultural values. We developed a typology for assessing elicited SRS data uncertainty which describes how social survey uncertainty propagates when projected spatially and the importance of accounting for spatial uncertainty such as scale effects and data quality. These uncertainties will propagate when elicited SRS data is integrated with biophysical data for conservation planning and may have important consequences for assessing the feasibility of conservation actions. To explore this issue further, we conducted a systematic review of the elicited SRS data literature. We found that social survey uncertainty was commonly tested for, but that these uncertainties were ignored when projected spatially. Based on these results we developed a framework which will help researchers and practitioners estimate social survey uncertainty and use these quantitative estimates to systematically address uncertainty within an analysis. This is important when using SRS data in conservation applications because decisions need to be made irrespective of data quality and well characterized uncertainty can be incorporated into decision theoretic approaches. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Theoretical foundation for measuring the groundwater age distribution.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gardner, William Payton; Arnold, Bill Walter

2014-01-01

In this study, we use PFLOTRAN, a highly scalable, parallel, flow and reactive transport code to simulate the concentrations of 3H, 3He, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, SF6, 39Ar, 81Kr, 4He and themean groundwater age in heterogeneous fields on grids with an excess of 10 million nodes. We utilize this computational platform to simulate the concentration of multiple tracers in high-resolution, heterogeneous 2-D and 3-D domains, and calculate tracer-derived ages. Tracer-derived ages show systematic biases toward younger ages when the groundwater age distribution contains water older than the maximum tracer age. The deviation of the tracer-derived age distribution from the true groundwatermore » age distribution increases with increasing heterogeneity of the system. However, the effect of heterogeneity is diminished as the mean travel time gets closer the tracer age limit. Age distributions in 3-D domains differ significantly from 2-D domains. 3D simulations show decreased mean age, and less variance in age distribution for identical heterogeneity statistics. High-performance computing allows for investigation of tracer and groundwater age systematics in high-resolution domains, providing a platform for understanding and utilizing environmental tracer and groundwater age information in heterogeneous 3-D systems. Groundwater environmental tracers can provide important constraints for the calibration of groundwater flow models. Direct simulation of environmental tracer concentrations in models has the additional advantage of avoiding assumptions associated with using calculated groundwater age values. This study quantifies model uncertainty reduction resulting from the addition of environmental tracer concentration data. The analysis uses a synthetic heterogeneous aquifer and the calibration of a flow and transport model using the pilot point method. Results indicate a significant reduction in the uncertainty in permeability with the addition of environmental tracer data, relative to the use of hydraulic measurements alone. Anthropogenic tracers and their decay products, such as CFC11, 3H, and 3He, provide significant constraint oninput permeability values in the model. Tracer data for 39Ar provide even more complete information on the heterogeneity of permeability and variability in the flow system than the anthropogenic tracers, leading to greater parameter uncertainty reduction.« less

Double-pulse 2-μm integrated path differential absorption lidar airborne validation for atmospheric carbon dioxide measurement.

PubMed

Refaat, Tamer F; Singh, Upendra N; Yu, Jirong; Petros, Mulugeta; Remus, Ruben; Ismail, Syed

2016-05-20

Field experiments were conducted to test and evaluate the initial atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) measurement capability of airborne, high-energy, double-pulsed, 2-μm integrated path differential absorption (IPDA) lidar. This IPDA was designed, integrated, and operated at the NASA Langley Research Center on-board the NASA B-200 aircraft. The IPDA was tuned to the CO₂ strong absorption line at 2050.9670 nm, which is the optimum for lower tropospheric weighted column measurements. Flights were conducted over land and ocean under different conditions. The first validation experiments of the IPDA for atmospheric CO₂ remote sensing, focusing on low surface reflectivity oceanic surface returns during full day background conditions, are presented. In these experiments, the IPDA measurements were validated by comparison to airborne flask air-sampling measurements conducted by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory. IPDA performance modeling was conducted to evaluate measurement sensitivity and bias errors. The IPDA signals and their variation with altitude compare well with predicted model results. In addition, off-off-line testing was conducted, with fixed instrument settings, to evaluate the IPDA systematic and random errors. Analysis shows an altitude-independent differential optical depth offset of 0.0769. Optical depth measurement uncertainty of 0.0918 compares well with the predicted value of 0.0761. IPDA CO₂ column measurement compares well with model-driven, near-simultaneous air-sampling measurements from the NOAA aircraft at different altitudes. With a 10-s shot average, CO₂ differential optical depth measurement of 1.0054±0.0103 was retrieved from a 6-km altitude and a 4-GHz on-line operation. As compared to CO₂ weighted-average column dry-air volume mixing ratio of 404.08 ppm, derived from air sampling, IPDA measurement resulted in a value of 405.22±4.15  ppm with 1.02% uncertainty and 0.28% additional bias. Sensitivity analysis of environmental systematic errors correlates the additional bias to water vapor. IPDA ranging resulted in a measurement uncertainty of <3  m.

Control of systematic uncertainties in the storage ring search for an electric dipole moment by measuring the electric quadrupole moment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magiera, Andrzej

2017-09-01

Measurements of electric dipole moment (EDM) for light hadrons with use of a storage ring have been proposed. The expected effect is very small, therefore various subtle effects need to be considered. In particular, interaction of particle's magnetic dipole moment and electric quadrupole moment with electromagnetic field gradients can produce an effect of a similar order of magnitude as that expected for EDM. This paper describes a very promising method employing an rf Wien filter, allowing to disentangle that contribution from the genuine EDM effect. It is shown that both these effects could be separated by the proper setting of the rf Wien filter frequency and phase. In the EDM measurement the magnitude of systematic uncertainties plays a key role and they should be under strict control. It is shown that particles' interaction with field gradients offers also the possibility to estimate global systematic uncertainties with the precision necessary for an EDM measurement with the planned accuracy.

Using PS1 and Type Ia Supernovae To Make Most Precise Measurement of Dark Energy To Date

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scolnic, Daniel; Pan-STARRS

2018-01-01

I will review recent results that present optical light curves, redshifts, and classifications for 361 spectroscopically confirmed Type Ia supernovae (SNeIa) discovered by the Pan-STARRS1 (PS1) Medium Deep Survey. I will go over improvements to the PS1 SN photometry, astrometry and calibration that reduce the systematic uncertainties in the PS1 SN Ia distances. We combined distances of PS1 SNe with distance estimates of SNIa from SDSS, SNLS, various low-z and HST samples to form the largest combined sample of SN Ia consisting of a total of ~1050 SN Ia ranging from 0.01 < z < 2.3, which we call the ‘Pantheon Sample’. Photometric calibration uncertainties have long dominated the systematic error budget of every major analysis of cosmological parameters with SNIa. Using the PS1 relative calibration, we have reduced these calibration systematics to the point where they are similar in magnitude to the other major sources of known systematic uncertainties: the nature of the intrinsic scatter of SNIa and modeling of selection effects. I will present measurements of dark energy which are now the most precise measurements of dark energy to date.

Alternatives to connective tissue graft in the treatment of localized gingival recessions: A systematic review.

PubMed

Amine, K; El Amrani, Y; Chemlali, S; Kissa, J

2018-02-01

The aim of this Systematic Review (SR) was to assess the clinical efficacy of alternatives procedures; Acellular Dermal Matrix (ADM), Xenogeneic Collagen Matrix (XCM), Enamel Matrix Derivative (EMD) and Platelet Rich Fibrin (PRF), compared to conventional procedures in the treatment of localized gingival recessions. Electronic searches were performed to identify randomized clinical trials (RCTs) on treatment of single gingival recession with at least 6 months of follow-up. Applying guidelines of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses statement (PRISMA). The risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration's Risk of Bias tool. Eighteen randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with a total of 390 treated patients (606 recessions) were included. This systematic review showed that: Coronally Advanced Flap (CAF) in conjunction with ADM was significantly better than CAF alone, while the comparison between CAF+ADM and CTG was affected by large uncertainty. The CAF+EMD was significantly better than CAF alone, whereas the comparison between CAF+EMD and CTG was affected by large uncertainty. No significant difference was recorded when comparing CAF+XCM with CAF alone, and the comparison between CAF+XCM and CTG was affected by large uncertainty. The comparison between PRF and others technique was affected by large uncertainty. ADM, XCM and EMD assisted to CAF might be considered alternatives of CTG in the treatment of Miller class I and II gingival recession. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Improving Photometric Calibration of Meteor Video Camera Systems.

PubMed

Ehlert, Steven; Kingery, Aaron; Suggs, Robert

2017-09-01

We present the results of new calibration tests performed by the NASA Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) designed to help quantify and minimize systematic uncertainties in meteor photometry from video camera observations. These systematic uncertainties can be categorized by two main sources: an imperfect understanding of the linearity correction for the MEO's Watec 902H2 Ultimate video cameras and uncertainties in meteor magnitudes arising from transformations between the Watec camera's Sony EX-View HAD bandpass and the bandpasses used to determine reference star magnitudes. To address the first point, we have measured the linearity response of the MEO's standard meteor video cameras using two independent laboratory tests on eight cameras. Our empirically determined linearity correction is critical for performing accurate photometry at low camera intensity levels. With regards to the second point, we have calculated synthetic magnitudes in the EX bandpass for reference stars. These synthetic magnitudes enable direct calculations of the meteor's photometric flux within the camera band pass without requiring any assumptions of its spectral energy distribution. Systematic uncertainties in the synthetic magnitudes of individual reference stars are estimated at ∼ 0.20 mag, and are limited by the available spectral information in the reference catalogs. These two improvements allow for zero-points accurate to ∼ 0.05 - 0.10 mag in both filtered and unfiltered camera observations with no evidence for lingering systematics. These improvements are essential to accurately measuring photometric masses of individual meteors and source mass indexes.

Improving Photometric Calibration of Meteor Video Camera Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ehlert, Steven; Kingery, Aaron; Suggs, Robert

2017-01-01

We present the results of new calibration tests performed by the NASA Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) designed to help quantify and minimize systematic uncertainties in meteor photometry from video camera observations. These systematic uncertainties can be categorized by two main sources: an imperfect understanding of the linearity correction for the MEO's Watec 902H2 Ultimate video cameras and uncertainties in meteor magnitudes arising from transformations between the Watec camera's Sony EX-View HAD bandpass and the bandpasses used to determine reference star magnitudes. To address the first point, we have measured the linearity response of the MEO's standard meteor video cameras using two independent laboratory tests on eight cameras. Our empirically determined linearity correction is critical for performing accurate photometry at low camera intensity levels. With regards to the second point, we have calculated synthetic magnitudes in the EX bandpass for reference stars. These synthetic magnitudes enable direct calculations of the meteor's photometric flux within the camera bandpass without requiring any assumptions of its spectral energy distribution. Systematic uncertainties in the synthetic magnitudes of individual reference stars are estimated at approx. 0.20 mag, and are limited by the available spectral information in the reference catalogs. These two improvements allow for zero-points accurate to 0.05 - 0.10 mag in both filtered and unfiltered camera observations with no evidence for lingering systematics. These improvements are essential to accurately measuring photometric masses of individual meteors and source mass indexes.

Investigation into the limitations of straightness interferometers using a multisensor-based error separation method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weichert, Christoph; Köchert, Paul; Schötka, Eugen; Flügge, Jens; Manske, Eberhard

2018-06-01

The uncertainty of a straightness interferometer is independent of the component used to introduce the divergence angle between the two probing beams, and is limited by three main error sources, which are linked to each other: their resolution, the influence of refractive index gradients and the topography of the straightness reflector. To identify the configuration with minimal uncertainties under laboratory conditions, a fully fibre-coupled heterodyne interferometer was successively equipped with three different wedge prisms, resulting in three different divergence angles (4°, 8° and 20°). To separate the error sources an independent reference with a smaller reproducibility is needed. Therefore, the straightness measurement capability of the Nanometer Comparator, based on a multisensor error separation method, was improved to provide measurements with a reproducibility of 0.2 nm. The comparison results revealed that the influence of the refractive index gradients of air did not increase with interspaces between the probing beams of more than 11.3 mm. Therefore, over a movement range of 220 mm, the lowest uncertainty was achieved with the largest divergence angle. The dominant uncertainty contribution arose from the mirror topography, which was additionally determined with a Fizeau interferometer. The measured topography agreed within  ±1.3 nm with the systematic deviations revealed in the straightness comparison, resulting in an uncertainty contribution of 2.6 nm for the straightness interferometer.

Carnegie Hubble Program: A Mid-Infrared Calibration of the Hubble Constant

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freedman, Wendy L.; Madore, Barry F.; Scowcroft, Victoria; Burns, Chris; Monson, Andy; Persson, S. Eric; Seibert, Mark; Rigby, Jane

2012-01-01

Using a mid-infrared calibration of the Cepheid distance scale based on recent observations at 3.6 micrometers with the Spitzer Space Telescope, we have obtained a new, high-accuracy calibration of the Hubble constant. We have established the mid-IR zero point of the Leavitt law (the Cepheid period-luminosity relation) using time-averaged 3.6 micrometers data for 10 high-metallicity, MilkyWay Cepheids having independently measured trigonometric parallaxes. We have adopted the slope of the PL relation using time-averaged 3.6micrometers data for 80 long-period Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) Cepheids falling in the period range 0.8 < log(P) < 1.8.We find a new reddening-corrected distance to the LMC of 18.477 +/- 0.033 (systematic) mag. We re-examine the systematic uncertainties in H(sub 0), also taking into account new data over the past decade. In combination with the new Spitzer calibration, the systematic uncertainty in H(sub 0) over that obtained by the Hubble Space Telescope Key Project has decreased by over a factor of three. Applying the Spitzer calibration to the Key Project sample, we find a value of H(sub 0) = 74.3 with a systematic uncertainty of +/-2.1 (systematic) kilometers per second Mpc(sup -1), corresponding to a 2.8% systematic uncertainty in the Hubble constant. This result, in combination with WMAP7measurements of the cosmic microwave background anisotropies and assuming a flat universe, yields a value of the equation of state for dark energy, w(sub 0) = -1.09 +/- 0.10. Alternatively, relaxing the constraints on flatness and the numbers of relativistic species, and combining our results with those of WMAP7, Type Ia supernovae and baryon acoustic oscillations yield w(sub 0) = -1.08 +/- 0.10 and a value of N(sub eff) = 4.13 +/- 0.67, mildly consistent with the existence of a fourth neutrino species.

A new method for measuring the neutron lifetime using an in situ neutron detector

DOE PAGES

Morris, Christopher L.; Adamek, Evan Robert; Broussard, Leah Jacklyn; ...

2017-05-30

Here, we describe a new method for measuring surviving neutrons in neutron lifetime measurements using bottled ultracold neutrons (UCN), which provides better characterization of systematic uncertainties and enables higher precision than previous measurement techniques. We also used an active detector that can be lowered into the trap to measure the neutron distribution as a function of height and measure the influence of marginally trapped UCN on the neutron lifetime measurement. Additionally, measurements have demonstrated phase-space evolution and its effect on the lifetime measurement.

Possibility of measuring Adler angles in charged current single pion neutrino-nucleus interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez, F.

2016-05-01

Uncertainties in modeling neutrino-nucleus interactions are a major contribution to systematic errors in long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments. Accurate modeling of neutrino interactions requires additional experimental observables such as the Adler angles which carry information about the polarization of the Δ resonance and the interference with nonresonant single pion production. The Adler angles were measured with limited statistics in bubble chamber neutrino experiments as well as in electron-proton scattering experiments. We discuss the viability of measuring these angles in neutrino interactions with nuclei.

A new method for measuring the neutron lifetime using an in situ neutron detector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morris, Christopher L.; Adamek, Evan Robert; Broussard, Leah Jacklyn

Here, we describe a new method for measuring surviving neutrons in neutron lifetime measurements using bottled ultracold neutrons (UCN), which provides better characterization of systematic uncertainties and enables higher precision than previous measurement techniques. We also used an active detector that can be lowered into the trap to measure the neutron distribution as a function of height and measure the influence of marginally trapped UCN on the neutron lifetime measurement. Additionally, measurements have demonstrated phase-space evolution and its effect on the lifetime measurement.

Uncertainty characterization of HOAPS 3.3 latent heat-flux-related parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liman, Julian; Schröder, Marc; Fennig, Karsten; Andersson, Axel; Hollmann, Rainer

2018-03-01

Latent heat flux (LHF) is one of the main contributors to the global energy budget. As the density of in situ LHF measurements over the global oceans is generally poor, the potential of remotely sensed LHF for meteorological applications is enormous. However, to date none of the available satellite products have included estimates of systematic, random, and sampling uncertainties, all of which are essential for assessing their quality. Here, the challenge is taken on by matching LHF-related pixel-level data of the Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite (HOAPS) climatology (version 3.3) to in situ measurements originating from a high-quality data archive of buoys and selected ships. Assuming the ground reference to be bias-free, this allows for deriving instantaneous systematic uncertainties as a function of four atmospheric predictor variables. The approach is regionally independent and therefore overcomes the issue of sparse in situ data densities over large oceanic areas. Likewise, random uncertainties are derived, which include not only a retrieval component but also contributions from in situ measurement noise and the collocation procedure. A recently published random uncertainty decomposition approach is applied to isolate the random retrieval uncertainty of all LHF-related HOAPS parameters. It makes use of two combinations of independent data triplets of both satellite and in situ data, which are analysed in terms of their pairwise variances of differences. Instantaneous uncertainties are finally aggregated, allowing for uncertainty characterizations on monthly to multi-annual timescales. Results show that systematic LHF uncertainties range between 15 and 50 W m-2 with a global mean of 25 W m-2. Local maxima are mainly found over the subtropical ocean basins as well as along the western boundary currents. Investigations indicate that contributions from qa (U) to the overall LHF uncertainty are on the order of 60 % (25 %). From an instantaneous point of view, random retrieval uncertainties are specifically large over the subtropics with a global average of 37 W m-2. In a climatological sense, their magnitudes become negligible, as do respective sampling uncertainties. Regional and seasonal analyses suggest that largest total LHF uncertainties are seen over the Gulf Stream and the Indian monsoon region during boreal winter. In light of the uncertainty measures, the observed continuous global mean LHF increase up to 2009 needs to be treated with caution. The demonstrated approach can easily be transferred to other satellite retrievals, which increases the significance of the present work.

Entering the Two-Detector Phase of Double Chooz: First Near Detector Data and Prospects for Future Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carr, Rachel; Double Chooz Collaboration

2015-04-01

In 2011, Double Chooz reported the first evidence for θ13-driven reactor antineutrino oscillation, derived from observations of inverse beta decay (IBD) events in a single detector located ~ 1 km from two nuclear reactors. Since then, the collaboration has honed the precision of its sin2 2θ13 measurement by reducing backgrounds, improving detection efficiency and systematics, and including additional statistics from IBD events with neutron captures on hydrogen. By 2014, the overwhelmingly dominant contribution to sin2 2θ13 uncertainty was reactor flux uncertainty, which is irreducible in a single-detector experiment. Now, as Double Chooz collects the first data with a near detector, we can begin to suppress that uncertainty and approach the experiment's full potential. In this talk, we show quality checks on initial data from the near detector. We also present our two-detector sensitivity to both sin2 2θ13 and sterile neutrino mixing, which are enhanced by analysis strategies developed in our single-detector phase. In particular, we discuss prospects for the first two-detector results from Double Chooz, expected in 2015.

Challenges in the determination of the interstellar flow longitude from the pickup ion cutoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taut, A.; Berger, L.; Möbius, E.; Drews, C.; Heidrich-Meisner, V.; Keilbach, D.; Lee, M. A.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.

2018-03-01

Context. The interstellar flow longitude corresponds to the Sun's direction of movement relative to the local interstellar medium. Thus, it constitutes a fundamental parameter for our understanding of the heliosphere and, in particular, its interaction with its surroundings, which is currently investigated by the Interstellar Boundary EXplorer (IBEX). One possibility to derive this parameter is based on pickup ions (PUIs) that are former neutral ions that have been ionized in the inner heliosphere. The neutrals enter the heliosphere as an interstellar wind from the direction of the Sun's movement against the partially ionized interstellar medium. PUIs carry information about the spatial variation of their neutral parent population (density and flow vector field) in their velocity distribution function. From the symmetry of the longitudinal flow velocity distribution, the interstellar flow longitude can be derived. Aim. The aim of this paper is to identify and eliminate systematic errors that are connected to this approach of measuring the interstellar flow longitude; we want to minimize any systematic influences on the result of this analysis and give a reasonable estimate for the uncertainty. Methods: We use He+ data measured by the PLAsma and SupraThermal Ion Composition (PLASTIC) sensor on the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory Ahead (STEREO A) spacecraft. We analyze a recent approach, identify sources of systematic errors, and propose solutions to eliminate them. Furthermore, a method is introduced to estimate the error associated with this approach. Additionally, we investigate how the selection of interplanetary magnetic field angles, which is closely connected to the pickup ion velocity distribution function, affects the result for the interstellar flow longitude. Results: We find that the revised analysis used to address part of the expected systematic effects obtains significantly different results than presented in the previous study. In particular, the derived uncertainties are considerably larger. Furthermore, an unexpected systematic trend of the resulting interstellar flow longitude with the selection of interplanetary magnetic field orientation is uncovered.

OPTHYLIC: An Optimised Tool for Hybrid Limits Computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busato, Emmanuel; Calvet, David; Theveneaux-Pelzer, Timothée

2018-05-01

A software tool, computing observed and expected upper limits on Poissonian process rates using a hybrid frequentist-Bayesian CLs method, is presented. This tool can be used for simple counting experiments where only signal, background and observed yields are provided or for multi-bin experiments where binned distributions of discriminating variables are provided. It allows the combination of several channels and takes into account statistical and systematic uncertainties, as well as correlations of systematic uncertainties between channels. It has been validated against other software tools and analytical calculations, for several realistic cases.

Assessment of a three‐dimensional (3D) water scanning system for beam commissioning and measurements on a helical tomotherapy unit

PubMed Central

Ashenafi, Michael S.; McDonald, Daniel G.; Vanek, Kenneth N.

2015-01-01

Beam scanning data collected on the tomotherapy linear accelerator using the TomoScanner water scanning system is primarily used to verify the golden beam profiles included in all Helical TomoTherapy treatment planning systems (TOMO TPSs). The user is not allowed to modify the beam profiles/parameters for beam modeling within the TOMO TPSs. The authors report the first feasibility study using the Blue Phantom Helix (BPH) as an alternative to the TomoScanner (TS) system. This work establishes a benchmark dataset using BPH for target commissioning and quality assurance (QA), and quantifies systematic uncertainties between TS and BPH. Reproducibility of scanning with BPH was tested by three experienced physicists taking five sets of measurements over a six‐month period. BPH provides several enhancements over TS, including a 3D scanning arm, which is able to acquire necessary beam‐data with one tank setup, a universal chamber mount, and the OmniPro software, which allows online data collection and analysis. Discrepancies between BPH and TS were estimated by acquiring datasets with each tank. In addition, data measured with BPH and TS was compared to the golden TOMO TPS beam data. The total systematic uncertainty, defined as the combination of scanning system and beam modeling uncertainties, was determined through numerical analysis and tabulated. OmniPro was used for all analysis to eliminate uncertainty due to different data processing algorithms. The setup reproducibility of BPH remained within 0.5 mm/0.5%. Comparing BPH, TS, and Golden TPS for PDDs beyond maximum depth, the total systematic uncertainties were within 1.4 mm/2.1%. Between BPH and TPS golden data, maximum differences in the field width and penumbra of in‐plane profiles were within 0.8 and 1.1 mm, respectively. Furthermore, in cross‐plane profiles, the field width differences increased at depth greater than 10 cm up to 2.5 mm, and maximum penumbra uncertainties were 5.6 mm and 4.6 mm from TS scanning system and TPS modeling, respectively. Use of BPH reduced measurement time by 1–2 hrs per session. The BPH has been assessed as an efficient, reproducible, and accurate scanning system capable of providing a reliable benchmark beam data. With this data, a physicist can utilize the BPH in a clinical setting with an understanding of the scan discrepancy that may be encountered while validating the TPS or during routine machine QA. Without the flexibility of modifying the TPS and without a golden beam dataset from the vendor or a TPS model generated from data collected with the BPH, this represents the best solution for current clinical use of the BPH. PACS number: 87.56.Fc

Measurement of the $B^-$ lifetime using a simulation free approach for trigger bias correction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aaltonen, T.; /Helsinki Inst. of Phys.; Adelman, J.

2010-04-01

The collection of a large number of B hadron decays to hadronic final states at the CDF II detector is possible due to the presence of a trigger that selects events based on track impact parameters. However, the nature of the selection requirements of the trigger introduces a large bias in the observed proper decay time distribution. A lifetime measurement must correct for this bias and the conventional approach has been to use a Monte Carlo simulation. The leading sources of systematic uncertainty in the conventional approach are due to differences between the data and the Monte Carlo simulation. Inmore » this paper they present an analytic method for bias correction without using simulation, thereby removing any uncertainty between data and simulation. This method is presented in the form of a measurement of the lifetime of the B{sup -} using the mode B{sup -} {yields} D{sup 0}{pi}{sup -}. The B{sup -} lifetime is measured as {tau}{sub B{sup -}} = 1.663 {+-} 0.023 {+-} 0.015 ps, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic. This new method results in a smaller systematic uncertainty in comparison to methods that use simulation to correct for the trigger bias.« less

Using high-throughput literature mining to support read-across predictions of toxicity (SOT)

EPA Science Inventory

Building scientific confidence in the development and evaluation of read-across remains an ongoing challenge. Approaches include establishing systematic frameworks to identify sources of uncertainty and ways to address them. One source of uncertainty is related to characterizing ...

High-throughput literature mining to support read-across predictions of toxicity (ASCCT meeting)

EPA Science Inventory

Building scientific confidence in the development and evaluation of read-across remains an ongoing challenge. Approaches include establishing systematic frameworks to identify sources of uncertainty and ways to address them. One source of uncertainty is related to characterizing ...

Flight Departure Delay and Rerouting Under Uncertainty in En Route Convective Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mukherjee, Avijit; Grabbe, Shon; Sridhar, Banavar

2011-01-01

Delays caused by uncertainty in weather forecasts can be reduced by improving traffic flow management decisions. This paper presents a methodology for traffic flow management under uncertainty in convective weather forecasts. An algorithm for assigning departure delays and reroutes to aircraft is presented. Departure delay and route assignment are executed at multiple stages, during which, updated weather forecasts and flight schedules are used. At each stage, weather forecasts up to a certain look-ahead time are treated as deterministic and flight scheduling is done to mitigate the impact of weather on four-dimensional flight trajectories. Uncertainty in weather forecasts during departure scheduling results in tactical airborne holding of flights. The amount of airborne holding depends on the accuracy of forecasts as well as the look-ahead time included in the departure scheduling. The weather forecast look-ahead time is varied systematically within the experiments performed in this paper to analyze its effect on flight delays. Based on the results, longer look-ahead times cause higher departure delays and additional flying time due to reroutes. However, the amount of airborne holding necessary to prevent weather incursions reduces when the forecast look-ahead times are higher. For the chosen day of traffic and weather, setting the look-ahead time to 90 minutes yields the lowest total delay cost.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: SDSS bulge, disk and total stellar mass estimates (Mendel+, 2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendel, J. T.; Simard, L.; Palmer, M.; Ellison, S. L.; Patton, D. R.

2014-01-01

We present a catalog of bulge, disk, and total stellar mass estimates for ~660000 galaxies in the Legacy area of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data (SDSS) Release 7. These masses are based on a homogeneous catalog of g- and r-band photometry described by Simard et al. (2011, Cat. J/ApJS/196/11), which we extend here with bulge+disk and Sersic profile photometric decompositions in the SDSS u, i, and z bands. We discuss the methodology used to derive stellar masses from these data via fitting to broadband spectral energy distributions (SEDs), and show that the typical statistical uncertainty on total, bulge, and disk stellar mass is ~0.15 dex. Despite relatively small formal uncertainties, we argue that SED modeling assumptions, including the choice of synthesis model, extinction law, initial mass function, and details of stellar evolution likely contribute an additional 60% systematic uncertainty in any mass estimate based on broadband SED fitting. We discuss several approaches for identifying genuine bulge+disk systems based on both their statistical likelihood and an analysis of their one-dimensional surface-brightness profiles, and include these metrics in the catalogs. Estimates of the total, bulge and disk stellar masses for both normal and dust-free models and their uncertainties are made publicly available here. (4 data files).

Capsule performance optimization in the National Ignition Campaigna)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landen, O. L.; Boehly, T. R.; Bradley, D. K.; Braun, D. G.; Callahan, D. A.; Celliers, P. M.; Collins, G. W.; Dewald, E. L.; Divol, L.; Glenzer, S. H.; Hamza, A.; Hicks, D. G.; Hoffman, N.; Izumi, N.; Jones, O. S.; Kirkwood, R. K.; Kyrala, G. A.; Michel, P.; Milovich, J.; Munro, D. H.; Nikroo, A.; Olson, R. E.; Robey, H. F.; Spears, B. K.; Thomas, C. A.; Weber, S. V.; Wilson, D. C.; Marinak, M. M.; Suter, L. J.; Hammel, B. A.; Meyerhofer, D. D.; Atherton, J.; Edwards, J.; Haan, S. W.; Lindl, J. D.; MacGowan, B. J.; Moses, E. I.

2010-05-01

A capsule performance optimization campaign will be conducted at the National Ignition Facility [G. H. Miller et al., Nucl. Fusion 44, 228 (2004)] to substantially increase the probability of ignition by laser-driven hohlraums [J. D. Lindl et al., Phys. Plasmas 11, 339 (2004)]. The campaign will experimentally correct for residual uncertainties in the implosion and hohlraum physics used in our radiation-hydrodynamic computational models before proceeding to cryogenic-layered implosions and ignition attempts. The required tuning techniques using a variety of ignition capsule surrogates have been demonstrated at the OMEGA facility under scaled hohlraum and capsule conditions relevant to the ignition design and shown to meet the required sensitivity and accuracy. In addition, a roll-up of all expected random and systematic uncertainties in setting the key ignition laser and target parameters due to residual measurement, calibration, cross-coupling, surrogacy, and scale-up errors has been derived that meets the required budget.

Capsule performance optimization in the National Ignition Campaign

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Landen, O. L.; Bradley, D. K.; Braun, D. G.

2010-05-15

A capsule performance optimization campaign will be conducted at the National Ignition Facility [G. H. Miller et al., Nucl. Fusion 44, 228 (2004)] to substantially increase the probability of ignition by laser-driven hohlraums [J. D. Lindl et al., Phys. Plasmas 11, 339 (2004)]. The campaign will experimentally correct for residual uncertainties in the implosion and hohlraum physics used in our radiation-hydrodynamic computational models before proceeding to cryogenic-layered implosions and ignition attempts. The required tuning techniques using a variety of ignition capsule surrogates have been demonstrated at the OMEGA facility under scaled hohlraum and capsule conditions relevant to the ignition designmore » and shown to meet the required sensitivity and accuracy. In addition, a roll-up of all expected random and systematic uncertainties in setting the key ignition laser and target parameters due to residual measurement, calibration, cross-coupling, surrogacy, and scale-up errors has been derived that meets the required budget.« less

A review of uncertainty in in situ measurements and data sets of sea surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, John J.

2014-03-01

Archives of in situ sea surface temperature (SST) measurements extend back more than 160 years. Quality of the measurements is variable, and the area of the oceans they sample is limited, especially early in the record and during the two world wars. Measurements of SST and the gridded data sets that are based on them are used in many applications so understanding and estimating the uncertainties are vital. The aim of this review is to give an overview of the various components that contribute to the overall uncertainty of SST measurements made in situ and of the data sets that are derived from them. In doing so, it also aims to identify current gaps in understanding. Uncertainties arise at the level of individual measurements with both systematic and random effects and, although these have been extensively studied, refinement of the error models continues. Recent improvements have been made in the understanding of the pervasive systematic errors that affect the assessment of long-term trends and variability. However, the adjustments applied to minimize these systematic errors are uncertain and these uncertainties are higher before the 1970s and particularly large in the period surrounding the Second World War owing to a lack of reliable metadata. The uncertainties associated with the choice of statistical methods used to create globally complete SST data sets have been explored using different analysis techniques, but they do not incorporate the latest understanding of measurement errors, and they want for a fair benchmark against which their skill can be objectively assessed. These problems can be addressed by the creation of new end-to-end SST analyses and by the recovery and digitization of data and metadata from ship log books and other contemporary literature.

Systematic Uncertainties in High-Energy Hadronic Interaction Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zha, M.; Knapp, J.; Ostapchenko, S.

2003-07-01

Hadronic interaction models for cosmic ray energies are uncertain since our knowledge of hadronic interactions is extrap olated from accelerator experiments at much lower energies. At present most high-energy models are based on Grib ov-Regge theory of multi-Pomeron exchange, which provides a theoretical framework to evaluate cross-sections and particle production. While experimental data constrain some of the model parameters, others are not well determined and are therefore a source of systematic uncertainties. In this paper we evaluate the variation of results obtained with the QGSJET model, when modifying parameters relating to three ma jor sources of uncertainty: the form of the parton structure function, the role of diffractive interactions, and the string hadronisation. Results on inelastic cross sections, on secondary particle production and on the air shower development are discussed.

Systematic uncertainties in long-baseline neutrino-oscillation experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ankowski, Artur M.; Mariani, Camillo

2017-05-01

Future neutrino-oscillation experiments are expected to bring definite answers to the questions of neutrino-mass hierarchy and violation of charge-parity symmetry in the lepton-sector. To realize this ambitious program it is necessary to ensure a significant reduction of uncertainties, particularly those related to neutrino-energy reconstruction. In this paper, we discuss different sources of systematic uncertainties, paying special attention to those arising from nuclear effects and detector response. By analyzing nuclear effects we show the importance of developing accurate theoretical models, capable of providing a quantitative description of neutrino cross sections, together with the relevance of their implementation in Monte Carlo generators and extensive testing against lepton-scattering data. We also point out the fundamental role of efforts aiming to determine detector responses in test-beam exposures.

Cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for the initial medical management of non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome: systematic review and decision-analytical modelling.

PubMed

Robinson, M; Palmer, S; Sculpher, M; Philips, Z; Ginnelly, L; Bowens, A; Golder, S; Alfakih, K; Bakhai, A; Packham, C; Cooper, N; Abrams, K; Eastwood, A; Pearman, A; Flather, M; Gray, D; Hall, A

2005-07-01

To identify and prioritise key areas of clinical uncertainty regarding the medical management of non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in current UK practice. Electronic databases. Consultations with clinical advisors. Postal survey of cardiologists. Potential areas of important uncertainty were identified and 'decision problems' prioritised. A systematic literature review was carried out using standard methods. The constructed decision model consisted of a short-term phase that applied the results of the systematic review and a long-term phase that included relevant information from a UK observational study to extrapolate estimated costs and effects. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken to examine the dependence of the results on baseline parameters, using alternative data sources. Expected value of information analysis was undertaken to estimate the expected value of perfect information associated with the decision problem. This provided an upper bound on the monetary value associated with additional research in the area. Seven current areas of clinical uncertainty (decision problems) in the drug treatment of unstable angina patients were identified. The agents concerned were clopidogrel, low molecular weight heparin, hirudin and intravenous glycoprotein antagonists (GPAs). Twelve published clinical guidelines for unstable angina or non-ST elevation ACS were identified, but few contained recommendations about the specified decision problems. The postal survey of clinicians showed that the greatest disagreement existed for the use of small molecule GPAs, and the greatest uncertainty existed for decisions relating to the use of abciximab (a large molecule GPA). Overall, decision problems concerning the GPA class of drugs were considered to be the highest priority for further study. Selected papers describing the clinical efficacy of treatment were divided into three groups, each representing an alternative strategy. The strategy involving the use of GPAs as part of the initial medical management of all non-ST elevation ACS was the optimal choice, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 5738 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) compared with no use of GPAs. Stochastic analysis showed that if the health service is willing to pay 10,000 pounds per additional QALY, the probability of this strategy being cost-effective was around 82%, increasing to 95% at a threshold of 50,000 pounds per QALY. A sensitivity analysis including an additional strategy of using GPAs as part of initial medical management only in patients at particular high risk (as defined by age, ST depression or diabetes) showed that this additional strategy was yet more cost-effective, with an ICER of 3996 pounds per QALY compared with no treatment with GPA. Value of information analysis suggested that there was considerable merit in additional research to reduce the level of uncertainty in the optimal decision. At a threshold of 10,000 pounds per QALY, the maximum potential value of such research in the base case was calculated as 12.7 million pounds per annum for the UK as a whole. Taking account of the greater uncertainty in the sensitivity analyses including clopidogrel, this figure was increased to approximately 50 million pounds. This study suggests the use of GPAs in all non-ST elevation ACS patients as part of their initial medical management. Sensitivity analysis showed that virtually all of the benefit could be realised by treating only high-risk patients. Further clarification of the optimum role of GPAs in the UK NHS depends on the availability of further high-quality observational and trial data. Value of information analysis derived from the model suggests that a relatively large investment in such research may be worthwhile. Further research should focus on the identification of the characteristics of patients who benefit most from GPAs as part of medical management, the comparison of GPAs with clopidogrel as an adjunct to standard care, follow-up cohort studies of the costs and outcomes of high-risk non-ST elevation ACS over several years, and exploring how clinicians' decisions combine a normative evidence-based decision model with their own personal behavioural perspective.

Measurement of absolute hadronic branching fractions of D mesons and e+e-→DD¯ cross sections at the ψ(3770)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobbs, S.; Metreveli, Z.; Seth, K. K.; Tomaradze, A.; Ecklund, K. M.; Love, W.; Savinov, V.; Lopez, A.; Mehrabyan, S.; Mendez, H.; Ramirez, J.; Huang, G. S.; Miller, D. H.; Pavlunin, V.; Sanghi, B.; Shipsey, I. P. J.; Xin, B.; Adams, G. S.; Anderson, M.; Cummings, J. P.; Danko, I.; Hu, D.; Moziak, B.; Napolitano, J.; He, Q.; Insler, J.; Muramatsu, H.; Park, C. S.; Thorndike, E. H.; Yang, F.; Artuso, M.; Blusk, S.; Khalil, S.; Li, J.; Menaa, N.; Mountain, R.; Nisar, S.; Randrianarivony, K.; Sia, R.; Skwarnicki, T.; Stone, S.; Wang, J. C.; Bonvicini, G.; Cinabro, D.; Dubrovin, M.; Lincoln, A.; Asner, D. M.; Edwards, K. W.; Naik, P.; Briere, R. A.; Ferguson, T.; Tatishvili, G.; Vogel, H.; Watkins, M. E.; Rosner, J. L.; Adam, N. E.; Alexander, J. P.; Berkelman, K.; Cassel, D. G.; Duboscq, J. E.; Ehrlich, R.; Fields, L.; Gibbons, L.; Gray, R.; Gray, S. W.; Hartill, D. L.; Heltsley, B. K.; Hertz, D.; Jones, C. D.; Kandaswamy, J.; Kreinick, D. L.; Kuznetsov, V. E.; Mahlke-Krüger, H.; Mohapatra, D.; Onyisi, P. U. E.; Patterson, J. R.; Peterson, D.; Pivarski, J.; Riley, D.; Ryd, A.; Sadoff, A. J.; Schwarthoff, H.; Shi, X.; Stroiney, S.; Sun, W. M.; Wilksen, T.; Athar, S. B.; Patel, R.; Yelton, J.; Rubin, P.; Cawlfield, C.; Eisenstein, B. I.; Karliner, I.; Kim, D.; Lowrey, N.; Selen, M.; White, E. J.; Wiss, J.; Mitchell, R. E.; Shepherd, M. R.; Besson, D.; Pedlar, T. K.; Cronin-Hennessy, D.; Gao, K. Y.; Hietala, J.; Kubota, Y.; Klein, T.; Lang, B. W.; Poling, R.; Scott, A. W.; Smith, A.; Zweber, P.

2007-12-01

Using 281pb-1 of e+e- collisions recorded at the ψ(3770) resonance with the CLEO-c detector at CESR (Cornell Electron Storage Ring), we determine absolute hadronic branching fractions of charged and neutral D mesons using a double tag technique. Among measurements for three D0 and six D+ modes, we obtain reference branching fractions B(D0→K-π+)=(3.891±0.035±0.059±0.035)% and B(D+→K-π+π+)=(9.14±0.10±0.16±0.07)%, where the first uncertainty is statistical, the second is all systematic errors other than final-state radiation (FSR), and the third is the systematic uncertainty due to FSR. We include FSR in these branching fractions by allowing for additional unobserved photons in the final state. Using an independent determination of the integrated luminosity, we also extract the cross sections σ(e+e-→D0D¯0)=(3.66±0.03±0.06)nb and σ(e+e-→D+D-)=(2.91±0.03±0.05)nb at a center-of-mass energy, Ecm=3774±1MeV.

Quantifying Uncertainties in Land-Surface Microwave Emissivity Retrievals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tian, Yudong; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Harrison, Kenneth W.; Prigent, Catherine; Norouzi, Hamidreza; Aires, Filipe; Boukabara, Sid-Ahmed; Furuzawa, Fumie A.; Masunaga, Hirohiko

2013-01-01

Uncertainties in the retrievals of microwaveland-surface emissivities are quantified over two types of land surfaces: desert and tropical rainforest. Retrievals from satellite-based microwave imagers, including the Special Sensor Microwave Imager, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager, and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System, are studied. Our results show that there are considerable differences between the retrievals from different sensors and from different groups over these two land-surface types. In addition, the mean emissivity values show different spectral behavior across the frequencies. With the true emissivity assumed largely constant over both of the two sites throughout the study period, the differences are largely attributed to the systematic and random errors inthe retrievals. Generally, these retrievals tend to agree better at lower frequencies than at higher ones, with systematic differences ranging 1%-4% (3-12 K) over desert and 1%-7% (3-20 K) over rainforest. The random errors within each retrieval dataset are in the range of 0.5%-2% (2-6 K). In particular, at 85.5/89.0 GHz, there are very large differences between the different retrieval datasets, and within each retrieval dataset itself. Further investigation reveals that these differences are most likely caused by rain/cloud contamination, which can lead to random errors up to 10-17 K under the most severe conditions.

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Dynamical Masses for 44 SZ-Selected Galaxy Clusters over 755 Square Degrees

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sifon, Cristobal; Battaglia, Nick; Hasselfield, Matthew; Menanteau, Felipe; Barrientos, L. Felipe; Bond, J. Richard; Crichton, Devin; Devlin, Mark J.; Dunner, Rolando; Hilton, Matt;

Colorful Investigations of Supernovae for WFIRST-AFTA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foley, Ryan

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are extremely good probes of dark energy, and WFIRST-AFTA is particularly well suited to make the best SN distance measurements possible. For conservative assumptions, the WFIRST SN survey is projected to have twice the impact as its other probes. Considering that Euclid will only have a minimal SN survey, but strong programs for other dark energy probes, the WFIRST SN survey is especially unique and important. With an initial simulation of the WFIRST-AFTA survey, we have determined that the largest statistical and systematic uncertainties are related to SN color. SN distances strongly depend on the precise measurement of SN colors since we must make a dust extinction correction that depends on the observed color. The details of how the correction is applied and the possibility that the correction evolves with redshift combine with potential calibration systematics to limit the current effectiveness of the SN component of WFIRST-AFTA. Here, we propose to support two graduate students to (1) investigate how intrinsic color variations will impact WFIRST-AFTA systematic uncertainties, (2) determine improved methods for reducing the systematic uncertainties related to SN color, and (3) simulate survey strategies incorporating our results to obtain the highest dark energy figure of merit (DE-FoM).

Systematic uncertainties in RF-based measurement of superconducting cavity quality factors

DOE PAGES

Holzbauer, J. P.; Pischalnikov, Yu.; Sergatskov, D. A.; ...

2016-05-10

Q 0 determinations based on RF power measurements are subject to at least three potentially large systematic effects that have not been previously appreciated. Here, instrumental factors that can systematically bias RF based measurements of Q 0 are quantified and steps that can be taken to improve the determination of Q 0 are discussed.

PROBING X-RAY ABSORPTION AND OPTICAL EXTINCTION IN THE INTERSTELLAR MEDIUM USING CHANDRA OBSERVATIONS OF SUPERNOVA REMNANTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Foight, Dillon R.; Slane, Patrick O.; Güver, Tolga

We present a comprehensive study of interstellar X-ray extinction using the extensive Chandra supernova remnant (SNR) archive and use our results to refine the empirical relation between the hydrogen column density and optical extinction. In our analysis, we make use of the large, uniform data sample to assess various systematic uncertainties in the measurement of the interstellar X-ray absorption. Specifically, we address systematic uncertainties that originate from (i) the emission models used to fit SNR spectra; (ii) the spatial variations within individual remnants; (iii) the physical conditions of the remnant such as composition, temperature, and non-equilibrium regions; and (iv) themore » model used for the absorption of X-rays in the interstellar medium. Using a Bayesian framework to quantify these systematic uncertainties, and combining the resulting hydrogen column density measurements with the measurements of optical extinction toward the same remnants, we find the empirical relation N {sub H} = (2.87 ± 0.12) × 10{sup 21} A {sub V} cm{sup 2}, which is significantly higher than the previous measurements.« less

Do systematic reviews on pediatric topics need special methodological considerations?

PubMed

Farid-Kapadia, Mufiza; Askie, Lisa; Hartling, Lisa; Contopoulos-Ioannidis, Despina; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Soll, Roger; Moher, David; Offringa, Martin

2017-03-06

Systematic reviews are key tools to enable decision making by healthcare providers and policymakers. Despite the availability of the evidence based Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA-2009 and PRISMA-P 2015) statements that were developed to improve the transparency and quality of reporting of systematic reviews, uncertainty on how to deal with pediatric-specific methodological challenges of systematic reviews impairs decision-making in child health. In this paper, we identify methodological challenges specific to the design, conduct and reporting of pediatric systematic reviews, and propose a process to address these challenges. One fundamental decision at the outset of a systematic review is whether to focus on a pediatric population only, or to include both adult and pediatric populations. Both from the policy and patient care point of view, the appropriateness of interventions and comparators administered to pre-defined pediatric age subgroup is critical. Decisions need to be based on the biological plausibility of differences in treatment effects across the developmental trajectory in children. Synthesis of evidence from different trials is often impaired by the use of outcomes and measurement instruments that differ between trials and are neither relevant nor validated in the pediatric population. Other issues specific to pediatric systematic reviews include lack of pediatric-sensitive search strategies and inconsistent choices of pediatric age subgroups in meta-analyses. In addition to these methodological issues generic to all pediatric systematic reviews, special considerations are required for reviews of health care interventions' safety and efficacy in neonatology, global health, comparative effectiveness interventions and individual participant data meta-analyses. To date, there is no standard approach available to overcome this problem. We propose to develop a consensus-based checklist of essential items which researchers should consider when they are planning (PRISMA-PC-Protocol for Children) or reporting (PRISMA-C-reporting for Children) a pediatric systematic review. Available guidelines including PRISMA do not cover the complexity associated with the conduct and reporting of systematic reviews in the pediatric population; they require additional and modified standards for reporting items. Such guidance will facilitate the translation of knowledge from the literature to bedside care and policy, thereby enhancing delivery of care and improving child health outcomes.

SU-E-T-659: Quantitative Evaluation of Patient Setup Accuracy of Stereotactic Radiotherapy with the Frameless 6D-ExacTrac System Using Statistical Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keeling, V; Jin, H; Hossain, S

2015-06-15

Purpose: To evaluate patient setup accuracy and quantify individual and cumulative positioning uncertainties associated with different hardware and software components of the stereotactic radiotherapy (SRS/SRT) with the frameless-6D-ExacTrac system. Methods: A statistical model was used to evaluate positioning uncertainties of the different components of SRS/SRT treatment with the BrainLAB 6D-ExacTrac system using the positioning shifts of 35 patients having cranial lesions (49 total lesions treated in 1, 3, 5 fractions). All these patients were immobilized with rigid head-and-neck masks, simulated with BrainLAB-localizer and planned with iPlan treatment planning system. Infrared imaging (IR) was used initially to setup patients. Then, stereoscopicmore » x-ray images (XC) were acquired and registered to corresponding digitally-reconstructed-radiographs using bony-anatomy matching to calculate 6D-translational and rotational shifts. When the shifts were within tolerance (0.7mm and 1°), treatment was initiated. Otherwise corrections were applied and additional x-rays were acquired (XV) to verify that patient position was within tolerance. Results: The uncertainties from the mask, localizer, IR-frame, x-ray imaging, MV and kV isocentricity were quantified individually. Mask uncertainty (Translational: Lateral, Longitudinal, Vertical; Rotational: Pitch, Roll, Yaw) was the largest and varied with patients in the range (−1.05−1.50mm, −5.06–3.57mm, −5.51−3.49mm; −1.40−2.40°, −1.24−1.74°, and −2.43−1.90°) obtained from mean of XC shifts for each patient. Setup uncertainty in IR positioning (0.88,2.12,1.40mm, and 0.64,0.83,0.96°) was extracted from standard-deviation of XC. Systematic uncertainties of the localizer (−0.03,−0.01,0.03mm, and −0.03,0.00,−0.01°) and frame (0.18,0.25,−1.27mm,−0.32,0.18, and 0.47°) were extracted from means of all XV setups and mean of all XC distributions, respectively. Uncertainties in isocentricity of the MV radiotherapy machine were (0.27,0.24,0.34mm) and kV-imager (0.15,−0.4,0.21mm). Conclusion: A statistical model was developed to evaluate the individual and cumulative systematic and random uncertainties induced by the different hardware and software components of the 6D-ExacTrac-system. The immobilization mask was associated with the largest positioning uncertainty.« less

Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality

PubMed Central

Hondula, David M.; Bunker, Aditi; Ibarreta, Dolores; Liu, Junguo; Zhang, Xinxin; Sauerborn, Rainer

2017-01-01

Background: Multiple methods are employed for modeling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known about the relative sensitivity of impacts to “adaptation uncertainty” (i.e., the inclusion/exclusion of adaptation modeling) relative to using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios. Objectives: This study had three aims: a) Compare the range in projected impacts that arises from using different adaptation modeling methods; b) compare the range in impacts that arises from adaptation uncertainty with ranges from using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios; c) recommend modeling method(s) to use in future impact assessments. Methods: We estimated impacts for 2070–2099 for 14 European cities, applying six different methods for modeling adaptation; we also estimated impacts with five climate models run under two emissions scenarios to explore the relative effects of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. Results: The range of the difference (percent) in impacts between including and excluding adaptation, irrespective of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty, can be as low as 28% with one method and up to 103% with another (mean across 14 cities). In 13 of 14 cities, the ranges in projected impacts due to adaptation uncertainty are larger than those associated with climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. Conclusions: Researchers should carefully consider how to model adaptation because it is a source of uncertainty that can be greater than the uncertainty in emissions and climate modeling. We recommend absolute threshold shifts and reductions in slope. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP634 PMID:28885979

Quantification of uncertainty in aerosol optical thickness retrieval arising from aerosol microphysical model and other sources, applied to Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Määttä, A.; Laine, M.; Tamminen, J.; Veefkind, J. P.

2014-05-01

Satellite instruments are nowadays successfully utilised for measuring atmospheric aerosol in many applications as well as in research. Therefore, there is a growing need for rigorous error characterisation of the measurements. Here, we introduce a methodology for quantifying the uncertainty in the retrieval of aerosol optical thickness (AOT). In particular, we concentrate on two aspects: uncertainty due to aerosol microphysical model selection and uncertainty due to imperfect forward modelling. We apply the introduced methodology for aerosol optical thickness retrieval of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura satellite, launched in 2004. We apply statistical methodologies that improve the uncertainty estimates of the aerosol optical thickness retrieval by propagating aerosol microphysical model selection and forward model error more realistically. For the microphysical model selection problem, we utilise Bayesian model selection and model averaging methods. Gaussian processes are utilised to characterise the smooth systematic discrepancies between the measured and modelled reflectances (i.e. residuals). The spectral correlation is composed empirically by exploring a set of residuals. The operational OMI multi-wavelength aerosol retrieval algorithm OMAERO is used for cloud-free, over-land pixels of the OMI instrument with the additional Bayesian model selection and model discrepancy techniques introduced here. The method and improved uncertainty characterisation is demonstrated by several examples with different aerosol properties: weakly absorbing aerosols, forest fires over Greece and Russia, and Sahara desert dust. The statistical methodology presented is general; it is not restricted to this particular satellite retrieval application.

Using Principal Component and Tidal Analysis as a Quality Metric for Detecting Systematic Heading Uncertainty in Long-Term Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morley, M. G.; Mihaly, S. F.; Dewey, R. K.; Jeffries, M. A.

2015-12-01

Ocean Networks Canada (ONC) operates the NEPTUNE and VENUS cabled ocean observatories to collect data on physical, chemical, biological, and geological ocean conditions over multi-year time periods. Researchers can download real-time and historical data from a large variety of instruments to study complex earth and ocean processes from their home laboratories. Ensuring that the users are receiving the most accurate data is a high priority at ONC, requiring quality assurance and quality control (QAQC) procedures to be developed for all data types. While some data types have relatively straightforward QAQC tests, such as scalar data range limits that are based on expected observed values or measurement limits of the instrument, for other data types the QAQC tests are more comprehensive. Long time series of ocean currents from Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP), stitched together from multiple deployments over many years is one such data type where systematic data biases are more difficult to identify and correct. Data specialists at ONC are working to quantify systematic compass heading uncertainty in long-term ADCP records at each of the major study sites using the internal compass, remotely operated vehicle bearings, and more analytical tools such as principal component analysis (PCA) to estimate the optimal instrument alignments. In addition to using PCA, some work has been done to estimate the main components of the current at each site using tidal harmonic analysis. This paper describes the key challenges and presents preliminary PCA and tidal analysis approaches used by ONC to improve long-term observatory current measurements.

Assessing uncertainties in crop and pasture ensemble model simulations of productivity and N2O emissions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Simulation models are extensively used to predict agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the uncertainties of (reduced) model ensemble simulations have not been assessed systematically for variables affecting food security and climate change mitigation, within multisp...

Exploring Uncertainty with Projectile Launchers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Orzel, Chad; Reich, Gary; Marr, Jonathan

2012-01-01

The proper choice of a measurement technique that minimizes systematic and random uncertainty is an essential part of experimental physics. These issues are difficult to teach in the introductory laboratory, though. Because most experiments involve only a single measurement technique, students are often unable to make a clear distinction between…

Proton elastic form factor ratios to Q2=3.5GeV2 by polarization transfer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Punjabi, V.; Perdrisat, C. F.; Aniol, K. A.; Baker, F. T.; Berthot, J.; Bertin, P. Y.; Bertozzi, W.; Besson, A.; Bimbot, L.; Boeglin, W. U.; Brash, E. J.; Brown, D.; Calarco, J. R.; Cardman, L. S.; Chai, Z.; Chang, C.-C.; Chen, J.-P.; Chudakov, E.; Churchwell, S.; Cisbani, E.; Dale, D. S.; Leo, R. De; Deur, A.; Diederich, B.; Domingo, J. J.; Epstein, M. B.; Ewell, L. A.; Fissum, K. G.; Fleck, A.; Fonvieille, H.; Frullani, S.; Gao, J.; Garibaldi, F.; Gasparian, A.; Gerstner, G.; Gilad, S.; Gilman, R.; Glamazdin, A.; Glashausser, C.; Gomez, J.; Gorbenko, V.; Green, A.; Hansen, J.-O.; Howell, C. R.; Huber, G. M.; Iodice, M.; de Jager, C. W.; Jaminion, S.; Jiang, X.; Jones, M. K.; Kahl, W.; Kelly, J. J.; Khayat, M.; Kramer, L. H.; Kumbartzki, G.; Kuss, M.; Lakuriki, E.; Laveissière, G.; Lerose, J. J.; Liang, M.; Lindgren, R. A.; Liyanage, N.; Lolos, G. J.; Macri, R.; Madey, R.; Malov, S.; Margaziotis, D. J.; Markowitz, P.; McCormick, K.; McIntyre, J. I.; Meer, R. L.; Michaels, R.; Milbrath, B. D.; Mougey, J. Y.; Nanda, S. K.; Offermann, E. A.; Papandreou, Z.; Pentchev, L.; Petratos, G. G.; Piskunov, N. M.; Pomatsalyuk, R. I.; Prout, D. L.; Quéméner, G.; Ransome, R. D.; Raue, B. A.; Roblin, Y.; Roche, R.; Rutledge, G.; Rutt, P. M.; Saha, A.; Saito, T.; Sarty, A. J.; Smith, T. P.; Sorokin, P.; Strauch, S.; Suleiman, R.; Takahashi, K.; Templon, J. A.; Todor, L.; Ulmer, P. E.; Urciuoli, G. M.; Vernin, P.; Vlahovic, B.; Voskanyan, H.; Wijesooriya, K.; Wojtsekhowski, B. B.; Woo, R. J.; Xiong, F.; Zainea, G. D.; Zhou, Z.-L.

2005-05-01

The ratio of the proton elastic electromagnetic form factors, GEp/GMp, was obtained by measuring Pt and Pℓ, the transverse and longitudinal recoil proton polarization components, respectively, for the elastic e→p→ep→reaction in the four-momentum transfer squared range of 0.5 to 3.5GeV2. In the single-photon exchange approximation, GEp/GMp is directly proportional to Pt/Pℓ. The simultaneous measurement of Pt and Pℓ in a polarimeter reduces systematic uncertainties. The results for GEp/GMp show a systematic decrease with increasing Q2, indicating for the first time a definite difference in the distribution of charge and magnetization in the proton. The data have been reanalyzed and their systematic uncertainties have become significantly smaller than those reported previously.

Review Article: Multi-criteria decision making for flood risk management: a survey of the current state-of-the-art

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Brito, M. M.; Evers, M.

2015-11-01

This paper provides a review of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) applications to flood risk management, seeking to highlight trends and identify research gaps. Totally, 128 peer-reviewed papers published from 1995 to June 2015 were systematically analysed and classified into the following application areas: (1) ranking of alternatives for flood mitigation, (2) reservoir flood control, (3) susceptibility, (4) hazard, (5) vulnerability, (6) risk, (7) coping capacity, and (8) emergency management. Additionally, the articles were categorized based on the publication year, MCDM method, whether they were or were not carried out in a participatory process, and if uncertainty and sensitivity analysis were performed. Results showed that the number of flood MCDM publications has exponentially grown during this period, with over 82 % of all papers published since 2009. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was the most popular technique, followed by Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and Simple Additive Weighting (SAW). Although there is greater interest on MCDM, uncertainty analysis remains an issue and is seldom applied in flood-related studies. In addition, participation of multiple stakeholders has been generally fragmented, focusing on particular stages of the decision-making process, especially on the definition of criteria weights. Based on the survey, some suggestions for further investigation are provided.

An efficient energy response model for liquid scintillator detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebanowski, Logan; Wan, Linyan; Ji, Xiangpan; Wang, Zhe; Chen, Shaomin

2018-05-01

Liquid scintillator detectors are playing an increasingly important role in low-energy neutrino experiments. In this article, we describe a generic energy response model of liquid scintillator detectors that provides energy estimations of sub-percent accuracy. This model fits a minimal set of physically-motivated parameters that capture the essential characteristics of scintillator response and that can naturally account for changes in scintillator over time, helping to avoid associated biases or systematic uncertainties. The model employs a one-step calculation and look-up tables, yielding an immediate estimation of energy and an efficient framework for quantifying systematic uncertainties and correlations.

Individuals’ Uncertainty about Future Social Security Benefits and Portfolio Choice

PubMed Central

Delavande, Adeline

2013-01-01

Summary Little is known about the degree to which individuals are uncertain about their future Social Security benefits, how this varies within the U.S. population, and whether this uncertainty influences financial decisions related to retirement planning. To illuminate these issues, we present empirical evidence from the Health and Retirement Study Internet Survey and document systematic variation in respondents’ uncertainty about their future Social Security benefits by individual characteristics. We find that respondents with higher levels of uncertainty about future benefits hold a smaller share of their wealth in stocks. PMID:23914049

Measurement and Analysis of the Temperature Gradient of Blackbody Cavities, for Use in Radiation Thermometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Lucas, Javier; Segovia, José Juan

2018-05-01

Blackbody cavities are the standard radiation sources widely used in the fields of radiometry and radiation thermometry. Its effective emissivity and uncertainty depend to a large extent on the temperature gradient. An experimental procedure based on the radiometric method for measuring the gradient is followed. Results are applied to particular blackbody configurations where gradients can be thermometrically estimated by contact thermometers and where the relationship between both basic methods can be established. The proposed procedure may be applied to commercial blackbodies if they are modified allowing secondary contact temperature measurement. In addition, the established systematic may be incorporated as part of the actions for quality assurance in routine calibrations of radiation thermometers, by using the secondary contact temperature measurement for detecting departures from the real radiometrically obtained gradient and the effect on the uncertainty. On the other hand, a theoretical model is proposed to evaluate the effect of temperature variations on effective emissivity and associated uncertainty. This model is based on a gradient sample chosen following plausible criteria. The model is consistent with the Monte Carlo method for calculating the uncertainty of effective emissivity and complements others published in the literature where uncertainty is calculated taking into account only geometrical variables and intrinsic emissivity. The mathematical model and experimental procedure are applied and validated using a commercial type three-zone furnace, with a blackbody cavity modified to enable a secondary contact temperature measurement, in the range between 400 °C and 1000 °C.

Bayesian Methods for Effective Field Theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wesolowski, Sarah

Microscopic predictions of the properties of atomic nuclei have reached a high level of precision in the past decade. This progress mandates improved uncertainty quantification (UQ) for a robust comparison of experiment with theory. With the uncertainty from many-body methods under control, calculations are now sensitive to the input inter-nucleon interactions. These interactions include parameters that must be fit to experiment, inducing both uncertainty from the fit and from missing physics in the operator structure of the Hamiltonian. Furthermore, the implementation of the inter-nucleon interactions is not unique, which presents the additional problem of assessing results using different interactions. Effective field theories (EFTs) take advantage of a separation of high- and low-energy scales in the problem to form a power-counting scheme that allows the organization of terms in the Hamiltonian based on their expected contribution to observable predictions. This scheme gives a natural framework for quantification of uncertainty due to missing physics. The free parameters of the EFT, called the low-energy constants (LECs), must be fit to data, but in a properly constructed EFT these constants will be natural-sized, i.e., of order unity. The constraints provided by the EFT, namely the size of the systematic uncertainty from truncation of the theory and the natural size of the LECs, are assumed information even before a calculation is performed or a fit is done. Bayesian statistical methods provide a framework for treating uncertainties that naturally incorporates prior information as well as putting stochastic and systematic uncertainties on an equal footing. For EFT UQ Bayesian methods allow the relevant EFT properties to be incorporated quantitatively as prior probability distribution functions (pdfs). Following the logic of probability theory, observable quantities and underlying physical parameters such as the EFT breakdown scale may be expressed as pdfs that incorporate the prior pdfs. Problems of model selection, such as distinguishing between competing EFT implementations, are also natural in a Bayesian framework. In this thesis we focus on two complementary topics for EFT UQ using Bayesian methods--quantifying EFT truncation uncertainty and parameter estimation for LECs. Using the order-by-order calculations and underlying EFT constraints as prior information, we show how to estimate EFT truncation uncertainties. We then apply the result to calculating truncation uncertainties on predictions of nucleon-nucleon scattering in chiral effective field theory. We apply model-checking diagnostics to our calculations to ensure that the statistical model of truncation uncertainty produces consistent results. A framework for EFT parameter estimation based on EFT convergence properties and naturalness is developed which includes a series of diagnostics to ensure the extraction of the maximum amount of available information from data to estimate LECs with minimal bias. We develop this framework using model EFTs and apply it to the problem of extrapolating lattice quantum chromodynamics results for the nucleon mass. We then apply aspects of the parameter estimation framework to perform case studies in chiral EFT parameter estimation, investigating a possible operator redundancy at fourth order in the chiral expansion and the appropriate inclusion of truncation uncertainty in estimating LECs.

The effects of He I λ10830 on helium abundance determinations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aver, Erik; Olive, Keith A.; Skillman, Evan D., E-mail: aver@gonzaga.edu, E-mail: olive@umn.edu, E-mail: skillman@astro.umn.edu

2015-07-01

Observations of helium and hydrogen emission lines from metal-poor extragalactic H II regions, combined with estimates of metallicity, provide an independent method for determining the primordial helium abundance, Y{sub p}. Traditionally, the emission lines employed are in the visible wavelength range, and the number of suitable lines is limited. Furthermore, when using these lines, large systematic uncertainties in helium abundance determinations arise due to the degeneracy of physical parameters, such as temperature and density. Recently, Izotov, Thuan, and Guseva (2014) have pioneered adding the He I λ10830 infrared emission line in helium abundance determinations. The strong electron density dependence ofmore » He I λ10830 makes it ideal for better constraining density, potentially breaking the degeneracy with temperature. We revisit our analysis of the dataset published by Izotov, Thuan, and Stasi and apos;nska (2007) and incorporate the newly available observations of He I λ10830 by scaling them using the observed-to-theoretical Paschen-gamma ratio. The solutions are better constrained, in particular for electron density, temperature, and the neutral hydrogen fraction, improving the model fit to data, with the result that more spectra now pass screening for quality and reliability, in addition to a standard 95% confidence level cut. Furthermore, the addition of He I λ10830 decreases the uncertainty on the helium abundance for all galaxies, with reductions in the uncertainty ranging from 10–80%. Overall, we find a reduction in the uncertainty on Y{sub p} by over 50%. From a regression to zero metallicity, we determine Y{sub p} = 0.2449 ± 0.0040, consistent with the BBN result, Y{sub p} = 0.2470 ± 0.0002, based on the Planck determination of the baryon density. The dramatic improvement in the uncertainty from incorporating He I λ10830 strongly supports the case for simultaneous (thus not requiring scaling) observations of visible and infrared helium emission line spectra.« less

WE-E-18A-04: Precision In-Vivo Dosimetry Using Optically Stimulated Luminescence Dosimeters and a Pulsed-Stimulating Dose Reader

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Q; Herrick, A; Hoke, S

Purpose: A new readout technology based on pulsed optically stimulating luminescence is introduced (microSTARii, Landauer, Inc, Glenwood, IL60425). This investigation searches for approaches that maximizes the dosimetry accuracy in clinical applications. Methods: The sensitivity of each optically stimulated luminescence dosimeter (OSLD) was initially characterized by exposing it to a given radiation beam. After readout, the luminescence signal stored in the OSLD was erased by exposing its sensing area to a 21W white LED light for 24 hours. A set of OSLDs with consistent sensitivities was selected to calibrate the dose reader. Higher order nonlinear curves were also derived from themore » calibration readings. OSLDs with cumulative doses below 15 Gy were reused. Before an in-vivo dosimetry, the OSLD luminescence signal was erased with the white LED light. Results: For a set of 68 manufacturer-screened OSLDs, the measured sensitivities vary in a range of 17.3%. A sub-set of the OSLDs with sensitivities within ±1% was selected for the reader calibration. Three OSLDs in a group were exposed to a given radiation. Nine groups were exposed to radiation doses ranging from 0 to 13 Gy. Additional verifications demonstrated that the reader uncertainty is about 3%. With an external calibration function derived by fitting the OSLD readings to a 3rd-order polynomial, the dosimetry uncertainty dropped to 0.5%. The dose-luminescence response curves of individual OSLDs were characterized. All curves converge within 1% after the sensitivity correction. With all uncertainties considered, the systematic uncertainty is about 2%. Additional tests emulating in-vivo dosimetry by exposing the OSLDs under different radiation sources confirmed the claim. Conclusion: The sensitivity of individual OSLD should be characterized initially. A 3rd-order polynomial function is a more accurate representation of the dose-luminescence response curve. The dosimetry uncertainty specified by the manufacturer is 4%. Following the proposed approach, it can be controlled to 2%.« less

Neutrino mass hierarchy and precision physics with medium-baseline reactors: Impact of energy-scale and flux-shape uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capozzi, F.; Lisi, E.; Marrone, A.

2015-11-01

Nuclear reactors provide intense sources of electron antineutrinos, characterized by few-MeV energy E and unoscillated spectral shape Φ (E ). High-statistics observations of reactor neutrino oscillations over medium-baseline distances L ˜O (50 ) km would provide unprecedented opportunities to probe both the long-wavelength mass-mixing parameters (δ m2 and θ12) and the short-wavelength ones (Δ mee 2 and θ13), together with the subtle interference effects associated with the neutrino mass hierarchy (either normal or inverted). In a given experimental setting—here taken as in the JUNO project for definiteness—the achievable hierarchy sensitivity and parameter accuracy depend not only on the accumulated statistics but also on systematic uncertainties, which include (but are not limited to) the mass-mixing priors and the normalizations of signals and backgrounds. We examine, in addition, the effect of introducing smooth deformations of the detector energy scale, E →E'(E ), and of the reactor flux shape, Φ (E )→Φ'(E ), within reasonable error bands inspired by state-of-the-art estimates. It turns out that energy-scale and flux-shape systematics can noticeably affect the performance of a JUNO-like experiment, both on the hierarchy discrimination and on precision oscillation physics. It is shown that a significant reduction of the assumed energy-scale and flux-shape uncertainties (by, say, a factor of 2) would be highly beneficial to the physics program of medium-baseline reactor projects. Our results also shed some light on the role of the inverse-beta decay threshold, of geoneutrino backgrounds, and of matter effects in the analysis of future reactor oscillation data.

Climateprediction.com: Public Involvement, Multi-Million Member Ensembles and Systematic Uncertainty Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stainforth, D. A.; Allen, M.; Kettleborough, J.; Collins, M.; Heaps, A.; Stott, P.; Wehner, M.

2001-12-01

The climateprediction.com project is preparing to carry out the first systematic uncertainty analysis of climate forecasts using large ensembles of GCM climate simulations. This will be done by involving schools, businesses and members of the public, and utilizing the novel technology of distributed computing. Each participant will be asked to run one member of the ensemble on their PC. The model used will initially be the UK Met Office's Unified Model (UM). It will be run under Windows and software will be provided to enable those involved to view their model output as it develops. The project will use this method to carry out large perturbed physics GCM ensembles and thereby analyse the uncertainty in the forecasts from such models. Each participant/ensemble member will therefore have a version of the UM in which certain aspects of the model physics have been perturbed from their default values. Of course the non-linear nature of the system means that it will be necessary to look not just at perturbations to individual parameters in specific schemes, such as the cloud parameterization, but also to the many combinations of perturbations. This rapidly leads to the need for very large, perhaps multi-million member ensembles, which could only be undertaken using the distributed computing methodology. The status of the project will be presented and the Windows client will be demonstrated. In addition, initial results will be presented from beta test runs using a demo release for Linux PCs and Alpha workstations. Although small by comparison to the whole project, these pilot results constitute a 20-50 member perturbed physics climate ensemble with results indicating how climate sensitivity can be substantially affected by individual parameter values in the cloud scheme.

Impact of Exposure Uncertainty on the Association between Perfluorooctanoate and Preeclampsia in the C8 Health Project Population.

PubMed

Avanasi, Raghavendhran; Shin, Hyeong-Moo; Vieira, Verónica M; Savitz, David A; Bartell, Scott M

2016-01-01

Uncertainty in exposure estimates from models can result in exposure measurement error and can potentially affect the validity of epidemiological studies. We recently used a suite of environmental models and an integrated exposure and pharmacokinetic model to estimate individual perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) serum concentrations and assess the association with preeclampsia from 1990 through 2006 for the C8 Health Project participants. The aims of the current study are to evaluate impact of uncertainty in estimated PFOA drinking-water concentrations on estimated serum concentrations and their reported epidemiological association with preeclampsia. For each individual public water district, we used Monte Carlo simulations to vary the year-by-year PFOA drinking-water concentration by randomly sampling from lognormal distributions for random error in the yearly public water district PFOA concentrations, systematic error specific to each water district, and global systematic error in the release assessment (using the estimated concentrations from the original fate and transport model as medians and a range of 2-, 5-, and 10-fold uncertainty). Uncertainty in PFOA water concentrations could cause major changes in estimated serum PFOA concentrations among participants. However, there is relatively little impact on the resulting epidemiological association in our simulations. The contribution of exposure uncertainty to the total uncertainty (including regression parameter variance) ranged from 5% to 31%, and bias was negligible. We found that correlated exposure uncertainty can substantially change estimated PFOA serum concentrations, but results in only minor impacts on the epidemiological association between PFOA and preeclampsia. Avanasi R, Shin HM, Vieira VM, Savitz DA, Bartell SM. 2016. Impact of exposure uncertainty on the association between perfluorooctanoate and preeclampsia in the C8 Health Project population. Environ Health Perspect 124:126-132; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409044.

Particle Dark Matter constraints: the effect of Galactic uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Benito, Maria; Bernal, Nicolás; Iocco, Fabio

2017-02-01

Collider, space, and Earth based experiments are now able to probe several extensions of the Standard Model of particle physics which provide viable dark matter candidates. Direct and indirect dark matter searches rely on inputs of astrophysical nature, such as the local dark matter density or the shape of the dark matter density profile in the target in object. The determination of these quantities is highly affected by astrophysical uncertainties. The latter, especially those for our own Galaxy, are ill-known, and often not fully accounted for when analyzing the phenomenology of particle physics models. In this paper we present amore » systematic, quantitative estimate of how astrophysical uncertainties on Galactic quantities (such as the local galactocentric distance, circular velocity, or the morphology of the stellar disk and bulge) propagate to the determination of the phenomenology of particle physics models, thus eventually affecting the determination of new physics parameters. We present results in the context of two specific extensions of the Standard Model (the Singlet Scalar and the Inert Doublet) that we adopt as case studies for their simplicity in illustrating the magnitude and impact of such uncertainties on the parameter space of the particle physics model itself. Our findings point toward very relevant effects of current Galactic uncertainties on the determination of particle physics parameters, and urge a systematic estimate of such uncertainties in more complex scenarios, in order to achieve constraints on the determination of new physics that realistically include all known uncertainties.« less

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: Galaxy Sample for BAO Measurement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crocce, M.; et al.

We define and characterise a sample of 1.3 million galaxies extracted from the first year of Dark Energy Survey data, optimised to measure Baryon Acoustic Oscillations in the presence of significant redshift uncertainties. The sample is dominated by luminous red galaxies located at redshiftsmore » $$z \\gtrsim 0.6$$. We define the exact selection using color and magnitude cuts that balance the need of high number densities and small photometric redshift uncertainties, using the corresponding forecasted BAO distance error as a figure-of-merit in the process. The typical photo-$z$ uncertainty varies from $$2.3\\%$$ to $$3.6\\%$$ (in units of 1+$z$) from $z=0.6$ to $1$, with number densities from $200$ to $130$ galaxies per deg$^2$ in tomographic bins of width $$\\Delta z = 0.1$$. Next we summarise the validation of the photometric redshift estimation. We characterise and mitigate observational systematics including stellar contamination, and show that the clustering on large scales is robust in front of those contaminants. We show that the clustering signal in the auto-correlations and cross-correlations is generally consistent with theoretical models, which serves as an additional test of the redshift distributions.« less

Method validation for chemical composition determination by electron microprobe with wavelength dispersive spectrometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrera-Basurto, R.; Mercader-Trejo, F.; Muñoz-Madrigal, N.; Juárez-García, J. M.; Rodriguez-López, A.; Manzano-Ramírez, A.

2016-07-01

The main goal of method validation is to demonstrate that the method is suitable for its intended purpose. One of the advantages of analytical method validation is translated into a level of confidence about the measurement results reported to satisfy a specific objective. Elemental composition determination by wavelength dispersive spectrometer (WDS) microanalysis has been used over extremely wide areas, mainly in the field of materials science, impurity determinations in geological, biological and food samples. However, little information is reported about the validation of the applied methods. Herein, results of the in-house method validation for elemental composition determination by WDS are shown. SRM 482, a binary alloy Cu-Au of different compositions, was used during the validation protocol following the recommendations for method validation proposed by Eurachem. This paper can be taken as a reference for the evaluation of the validation parameters more frequently requested to get the accreditation under the requirements of the ISO/IEC 17025 standard: selectivity, limit of detection, linear interval, sensitivity, precision, trueness and uncertainty. A model for uncertainty estimation was proposed including systematic and random errors. In addition, parameters evaluated during the validation process were also considered as part of the uncertainty model.

Incorporating climate change into systematic conservation planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Groves, Craig R.; Game, Edward T.; Anderson, Mark G.; Cross, Molly; Enquist, Carolyn; Ferdana, Zach; Girvetz, Evan; Gondor, Anne; Hall, Kimberly R.; Higgins, Jonathan; Marshall, Rob; Popper, Ken; Schill, Steve; Shafer, Sarah L.

2012-01-01

The principles of systematic conservation planning are now widely used by governments and non-government organizations alike to develop biodiversity conservation plans for countries, states, regions, and ecoregions. Many of the species and ecosystems these plans were designed to conserve are now being affected by climate change, and there is a critical need to incorporate new and complementary approaches into these plans that will aid species and ecosystems in adjusting to potential climate change impacts. We propose five approaches to climate change adaptation that can be integrated into existing or new biodiversity conservation plans: (1) conserving the geophysical stage, (2) protecting climatic refugia, (3) enhancing regional connectivity, (4) sustaining ecosystem process and function, and (5) capitalizing on opportunities emerging in response to climate change. We discuss both key assumptions behind each approach and the trade-offs involved in using the approach for conservation planning. We also summarize additional data beyond those typically used in systematic conservation plans required to implement these approaches. A major strength of these approaches is that they are largely robust to the uncertainty in how climate impacts may manifest in any given region.

Systematic in J-PARC/Hyper-K

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Minamino, Akihiro

The Hyper-Kamiokande (Hyper-K) detector is a next generation underground water Chrenkov detector. The J-PARC to Hyper-K experiment has good potential for precision measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters and discovery reach for CP violation in the lepton sector. With a total exposure of 10 years to a neutrino beam produced by the 750 kW J-PARC proton synchrotron, it is expected that the CP phase δ can be determined to better than 18 degree for all possible values of δ if sin{sup 2} 2θ{sub 13} > 0.03 and the mass hierarchy is known. Control of systematic uncertainties is critical to make maximummore » use of the Hyper-K potential. Based on learning from T2K experience, a strategy to reduce systematic uncertainties in J-PARC/Hyper-K are developed.« less

Summary of long-baseline systematics session at CETUP*2014

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cherdack, Daniel; Worcester, Elizabeth

2015-10-15

A session studying systematics in long-baseline neutrino oscillation physics was held July 14-18, 2014 as part of CETUP* 2014. Systematic effects from flux normalization and modeling, modeling of cross sections and nuclear interactions, and far detector effects were addressed. Experts presented the capabilities of existing and planned tools. A program of study to determine estimates of and requirements for the size of these effects was designed. This document summarizes the results of the CETUP* systematics workshop and the current status of systematic uncertainty studies in long-baseline neutrino oscillation measurements.

Calibration of the Microwave Limb Sounder on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jarnot, R. F.; Cofield, R. E.; Waters, J. W.; Flower, D. A.; Peckham, G. E.

1996-01-01

The Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) is a three-radiometer, passive, limb emission instrument onboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). Radiometric, spectral and field-of-view calibrations of the MLS instrument are described in this paper. In-orbit noise performance, gain stability, spectral baseline and dynamic range are described, as well as use of in-flight data for validation and refinement of prelaunch calibrations. Estimated systematic scaling uncertainties (3 sigma) on calibrated limb radiances from prelaunch calibrations are 2.6% in bands 1 through 3, 3.4% in band 4, and 6% in band 5. The observed systematic errors in band 6 are about 15%, consistent with prelaunch calibration uncertainties. Random uncertainties on individual limb radiance measurements are very close to the levels predicted from measured radiometer noise temperature, with negligible contribution from noise and drifts on the regular in-flight gain calibration measurements.

Phase shifts in I = 2 ππ-scattering from two lattice approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurth, T.; Ishii, N.; Doi, T.; Aoki, S.; Hatsuda, T.

2013-12-01

We present a lattice QCD study of the phase shift of I = 2 ππ scattering on the basis of two different approaches: the standard finite volume approach by Lüscher and the recently introduced HAL QCD potential method. Quenched QCD simulations are performed on lattices with extents N s = 16 , 24 , 32 , 48 and N t = 128 as well as lattice spacing a ~ 0 .115 fm and a pion mass of m π ~ 940 MeV. The phase shift and the scattering length are calculated in these two methods. In the potential method, the error is dominated by the systematic uncertainty associated with the violation of rotational symmetry due to finite lattice spacing. In Lüscher's approach, such systematic uncertainty is difficult to be evaluated and thus is not included in this work. A systematic uncertainty attributed to the quenched approximation, however, is not evaluated in both methods. In case of the potential method, the phase shift can be calculated for arbitrary energies below the inelastic threshold. The energy dependence of the phase shift is also obtained from Lüscher's method using different volumes and/or nonrest-frame extension of it. The results are found to agree well with the potential method.

Multiscale Simulation Framework for Coupled Fluid Flow and Mechanical Deformation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hou, Thomas; Efendiev, Yalchin; Tchelepi, Hamdi

2016-05-24

Our work in this project is aimed at making fundamental advances in multiscale methods for flow and transport in highly heterogeneous porous media. The main thrust of this research is to develop a systematic multiscale analysis and efficient coarse-scale models that can capture global effects and extend existing multiscale approaches to problems with additional physics and uncertainties. A key emphasis is on problems without an apparent scale separation. Multiscale solution methods are currently under active investigation for the simulation of subsurface flow in heterogeneous formations. These procedures capture the effects of fine-scale permeability variations through the calculation of specialized coarse-scalemore » basis functions. Most of the multiscale techniques presented to date employ localization approximations in the calculation of these basis functions. For some highly correlated (e.g., channelized) formations, however, global effects are important and these may need to be incorporated into the multiscale basis functions. Other challenging issues facing multiscale simulations are the extension of existing multiscale techniques to problems with additional physics, such as compressibility, capillary effects, etc. In our project, we explore the improvement of multiscale methods through the incorporation of additional (single-phase flow) information and the development of a general multiscale framework for flows in the presence of uncertainties, compressible flow and heterogeneous transport, and geomechanics. We have considered (1) adaptive local-global multiscale methods, (2) multiscale methods for the transport equation, (3) operator-based multiscale methods and solvers, (4) multiscale methods in the presence of uncertainties and applications, (5) multiscale finite element methods for high contrast porous media and their generalizations, and (6) multiscale methods for geomechanics.« less

Multiscale analysis and computation for flows in heterogeneous media

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Efendiev, Yalchin; Hou, T. Y.; Durlofsky, L. J.

Our work in this project is aimed at making fundamental advances in multiscale methods for flow and transport in highly heterogeneous porous media. The main thrust of this research is to develop a systematic multiscale analysis and efficient coarse-scale models that can capture global effects and extend existing multiscale approaches to problems with additional physics and uncertainties. A key emphasis is on problems without an apparent scale separation. Multiscale solution methods are currently under active investigation for the simulation of subsurface flow in heterogeneous formations. These procedures capture the effects of fine-scale permeability variations through the calculation of specialized coarse-scalemore » basis functions. Most of the multiscale techniques presented to date employ localization approximations in the calculation of these basis functions. For some highly correlated (e.g., channelized) formations, however, global effects are important and these may need to be incorporated into the multiscale basis functions. Other challenging issues facing multiscale simulations are the extension of existing multiscale techniques to problems with additional physics, such as compressibility, capillary effects, etc. In our project, we explore the improvement of multiscale methods through the incorporation of additional (single-phase flow) information and the development of a general multiscale framework for flows in the presence of uncertainties, compressible flow and heterogeneous transport, and geomechanics. We have considered (1) adaptive local-global multiscale methods, (2) multiscale methods for the transport equation, (3) operator-based multiscale methods and solvers, (4) multiscale methods in the presence of uncertainties and applications, (5) multiscale finite element methods for high contrast porous media and their generalizations, and (6) multiscale methods for geomechanics. Below, we present a brief overview of each of these contributions.« less

An Integrated Uncertainty Analysis and Ensemble-based Data Assimilation Framework for Operational Snow Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, M.; Hogue, T. S.; Franz, K.; Margulis, S. A.; Vrugt, J. A.

2009-12-01

The National Weather Service (NWS), the agency responsible for short- and long-term streamflow predictions across the nation, primarily applies the SNOW17 model for operational forecasting of snow accumulation and melt. The SNOW17-forecasted snowmelt serves as an input to a rainfall-runoff model for streamflow forecasts in snow-dominated areas. The accuracy of streamflow predictions in these areas largely relies on the accuracy of snowmelt. However, no direct snowmelt measurements are available to validate the SNOW17 predictions. Instead, indirect measurements such as snow water equivalent (SWE) measurements or discharge are typically used to calibrate SNOW17 parameters. In addition, the forecast practice is inherently deterministic, lacking tools to systematically address forecasting uncertainties (e.g., uncertainties in parameters, forcing, SWE and discharge observations, etc.). The current research presents an Integrated Uncertainty analysis and Ensemble-based data Assimilation (IUEA) framework to improve predictions of snowmelt and discharge while simultaneously providing meaningful estimates of the associated uncertainty. The IUEA approach uses the recently developed DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) to simultaneously estimate uncertainties in model parameters, forcing, and observations. The robustness and usefulness of the IUEA-SNOW17 framework is evaluated for snow-dominated watersheds in the northern Sierra Mountains, using the coupled IUEA-SNOW17 and an operational soil moisture accounting model (SAC-SMA). Preliminary results are promising and indicate successful performance of the coupled IUEA-SNOW17 framework. Implementation of the SNOW17 with the IUEA is straightforward and requires no major modification to the SNOW17 model structure. The IUEA-SNOW17 framework is intended to be modular and transferable and should assist the NWS in advancing the current forecasting system and reinforcing current operational forecasting skill.

Alternate methods for FAAT S-curve generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaufman, A.M.

The FAAT (Foreign Asset Assessment Team) assessment methodology attempts to derive a probability of effect as a function of incident field strength. The probability of effect is the likelihood that the stress put on a system exceeds its strength. In the FAAT methodology, both the stress and strength are random variables whose statistical properties are estimated by experts. Each random variable has two components of uncertainty: systematic and random. The systematic uncertainty drives the confidence bounds in the FAAT assessment. Its variance can be reduced by improved information. The variance of the random uncertainty is not reducible. The FAAT methodologymore » uses an assessment code called ARES to generate probability of effect curves (S-curves) at various confidence levels. ARES assumes log normal distributions for all random variables. The S-curves themselves are log normal cumulants associated with the random portion of the uncertainty. The placement of the S-curves depends on confidence bounds. The systematic uncertainty in both stress and strength is usually described by a mode and an upper and lower variance. Such a description is not consistent with the log normal assumption of ARES and an unsatisfactory work around solution is used to obtain the required placement of the S-curves at each confidence level. We have looked into this situation and have found that significant errors are introduced by this work around. These errors are at least several dB-W/cm{sup 2} at all confidence levels, but they are especially bad in the estimate of the median. In this paper, we suggest two alternate solutions for the placement of S-curves. To compare these calculational methods, we have tabulated the common combinations of upper and lower variances and generated the relevant S-curves offsets from the mode difference of stress and strength.« less

ERRATUM: FERMI Large Area Telescope Study of Cosmic-Rays and the Interstellar Medium in Nearby Molecular Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ackermann, M.; Ajello, M.; Allafort, A.; Baldini, L.; Ballet, J.; Barbiellini, G.; Bastieri, D.; Bechtol, K.; Bellazzini, R.; Berenji, B.;

Gauging Metallicity of Diffuse Gas under an Uncertain Ionizing Radiation Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Hsiao-Wen; Johnson, Sean D.; Zahedy, Fakhri S.; Rauch, Michael; Mulchaey, John S.

2017-06-01

Gas metallicity is a key quantity used to determine the physical conditions of gaseous clouds in a wide range of astronomical environments, including interstellar and intergalactic space. In particular, considerable effort in circumgalactic medium (CGM) studies focuses on metallicity measurements because gas metallicity serves as a critical discriminator for whether the observed heavy ions in the CGM originate in chemically enriched outflows or in more chemically pristine gas accreted from the intergalactic medium. However, because the gas is ionized, a necessary first step in determining CGM metallicity is to constrain the ionization state of the gas which, in addition to gas density, depends on the ultraviolet background radiation field (UVB). While it is generally acknowledged that both the intensity and spectral slope of the UVB are uncertain, the impact of an uncertain spectral slope has not been properly addressed in the literature. This Letter shows that adopting a different spectral slope can result in an order of magnitude difference in the inferred CGM metallicity. Specifically, a harder UVB spectrum leads to a higher estimated gas metallicity for a given set of observed ionic column densities. Therefore, such systematic uncertainties must be folded into the error budget for metallicity estimates of ionized gas. An initial study shows that empirical diagnostics are available for discriminating between hard and soft ionizing spectra. Applying these diagnostics helps reduce the systematic uncertainties in CGM metallicity estimates.

Gauging Metallicity of Diffuse Gas under an Uncertain Ionizing Radiation Field

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Hsiao-Wen; Zahedy, Fakhri S.; Johnson, Sean D.

Gas metallicity is a key quantity used to determine the physical conditions of gaseous clouds in a wide range of astronomical environments, including interstellar and intergalactic space. In particular, considerable effort in circumgalactic medium (CGM) studies focuses on metallicity measurements because gas metallicity serves as a critical discriminator for whether the observed heavy ions in the CGM originate in chemically enriched outflows or in more chemically pristine gas accreted from the intergalactic medium. However, because the gas is ionized, a necessary first step in determining CGM metallicity is to constrain the ionization state of the gas which, in addition tomore » gas density, depends on the ultraviolet background radiation field (UVB). While it is generally acknowledged that both the intensity and spectral slope of the UVB are uncertain, the impact of an uncertain spectral slope has not been properly addressed in the literature. This Letter shows that adopting a different spectral slope can result in an order of magnitude difference in the inferred CGM metallicity. Specifically, a harder UVB spectrum leads to a higher estimated gas metallicity for a given set of observed ionic column densities. Therefore, such systematic uncertainties must be folded into the error budget for metallicity estimates of ionized gas. An initial study shows that empirical diagnostics are available for discriminating between hard and soft ionizing spectra. Applying these diagnostics helps reduce the systematic uncertainties in CGM metallicity estimates.« less

A Systematic Analysis of Caustic Methods for Galaxy Cluster Masses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gifford, Daniel; Miller, Christopher; Kern, Nicholas

2013-08-01

We quantify the expected observed statistical and systematic uncertainties of the escape velocity as a measure of the gravitational potential and total mass of galaxy clusters. We focus our attention on low redshift (z <=0.15) clusters, where large and deep spectroscopic datasets currently exist. Utilizing a suite of Millennium Simulation semi-analytic galaxy catalogs, we find that the dynamical mass, as traced by either the virial relation or the escape velocity, is robust to variations in how dynamical friction is applied to "orphan" galaxies in the mock catalogs (i.e., those galaxies whose dark matter halos have fallen below the resolution limit). We find that the caustic technique recovers the known halo masses (M 200) with a third less scatter compared to the virial masses. The bias we measure increases quickly as the number of galaxies used decreases. For N gal > 25, the scatter in the escape velocity mass is dominated by projections along the line-of-sight. Algorithmic uncertainties from the determination of the projected escape velocity profile are negligible. We quantify how target selection based on magnitude, color, and projected radial separation can induce small additional biases into the escape velocity masses. Using N gal = 150 (25), the caustic technique has a per cluster scatter in ln (M|M 200) of 0.3 (0.5) and bias 1% ± 3} (16% ± 5}) for clusters with masses >1014 M ⊙ at z < 0.15.

Quantifying Mixed Uncertainties in Cyber Attacker Payoffs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chatterjee, Samrat; Halappanavar, Mahantesh; Tipireddy, Ramakrishna

Representation and propagation of uncertainty in cyber attacker payoffs is a key aspect of security games. Past research has primarily focused on representing the defender’s beliefs about attacker payoffs as point utility estimates. More recently, within the physical security domain, attacker payoff uncertainties have been represented as Uniform and Gaussian probability distributions, and intervals. Within cyber-settings, continuous probability distributions may still be appropriate for addressing statistical (aleatory) uncertainties where the defender may assume that the attacker’s payoffs differ over time. However, systematic (epistemic) uncertainties may exist, where the defender may not have sufficient knowledge or there is insufficient information aboutmore » the attacker’s payoff generation mechanism. Such epistemic uncertainties are more suitably represented as probability boxes with intervals. In this study, we explore the mathematical treatment of such mixed payoff uncertainties.« less

Simple uncertainty propagation for early design phase aircraft sizing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenz, Annelise

Many designers and systems analysts are aware of the uncertainty inherent in their aircraft sizing studies; however, few incorporate methods to address and quantify this uncertainty. Many aircraft design studies use semi-empirical predictors based on a historical database and contain uncertainty -- a portion of which can be measured and quantified. In cases where historical information is not available, surrogate models built from higher-fidelity analyses often provide predictors for design studies where the computational cost of directly using the high-fidelity analyses is prohibitive. These surrogate models contain uncertainty, some of which is quantifiable. However, rather than quantifying this uncertainty, many designers merely include a safety factor or design margin in the constraints to account for the variability between the predicted and actual results. This can become problematic if a designer does not estimate the amount of variability correctly, which then can result in either an "over-designed" or "under-designed" aircraft. "Under-designed" and some "over-designed" aircraft will likely require design changes late in the process and will ultimately require more time and money to create; other "over-designed" aircraft concepts may not require design changes, but could end up being more costly than necessary. Including and propagating uncertainty early in the design phase so designers can quantify some of the errors in the predictors could help mitigate the extent of this additional cost. The method proposed here seeks to provide a systematic approach for characterizing a portion of the uncertainties that designers are aware of and propagating it throughout the design process in a procedure that is easy to understand and implement. Using Monte Carlo simulations that sample from quantified distributions will allow a systems analyst to use a carpet plot-like approach to make statements like: "The aircraft is 'P'% likely to weigh 'X' lbs or less, given the uncertainties quantified" without requiring the systems analyst to have substantial knowledge of probabilistic methods. A semi-empirical sizing study of a small single-engine aircraft serves as an example of an initial version of this simple uncertainty propagation. The same approach is also applied to a variable-fidelity concept study using a NASA-developed transonic Hybrid Wing Body aircraft.

Jet energy measurement with the ATLAS detector in proton-proton collisions at √{s}=7 TeV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; Abdallah, J.; Abdelalim, A. A.; Abdesselam, A.; Abdinov, O.; Abi, B.; Abolins, M.; Abramowicz, H.; Abreu, H.; Acerbi, E.; Acharya, B. S.; Adams, D. L.; Addy, T. N.; Adelman, J.; Aderholz, M.; Adomeit, S.; Adragna, P.; Adye, T.; Aefsky, S.; Aguilar-Saavedra, J. A.; Aharrouche, M.; Ahlen, S. P.; Ahles, F.; Ahmad, A.; Ahsan, M.; Aielli, G.; Akdogan, T.; Åkesson, T. P. A.; Akimoto, G.; Akimov, A. V.; Akiyama, A.; Aktas, A.; Alam, M. S.; Alam, M. A.; Albert, J.; Albrand, S.; Aleksa, M.; Aleksandrov, I. N.; Alessandria, F.; Alexa, C.; Alexander, G.; Alexandre, G.; Alexopoulos, T.; Alhroob, M.; Aliev, M.; Alimonti, G.; Alison, J.; Aliyev, M.; Allport, P. P.; Allwood-Spiers, S. E.; Almond, J.; Aloisio, A.; Alon, R.; Alonso, A.; Alviggi, M. G.; Amako, K.; Amaral, P.; Amelung, C.; Ammosov, V. V.; Amorim, A.; Amorós, G.; Amram, N.; Anastopoulos, C.; Ancu, L. S.; Andari, N.; Andeen, T.; Anders, C. F.; Anders, G.; Anderson, K. J.; Andreazza, A.; Andrei, V.; Andrieux, M.-L.; Anduaga, X. S.; Angerami, A.; Anghinolfi, F.; Anjos, N.; Annovi, A.; Antonaki, A.; Antonelli, M.; Antonov, A.; Antos, J.; Anulli, F.; Aoun, S.; Aperio Bella, L.; Apolle, R.; Arabidze, G.; Aracena, I.; Arai, Y.; Arce, A. T. H.; Archambault, J. P.; Arfaoui, S.; Arguin, J.-F.; Arik, E.; Arik, M.; Armbruster, A. J.; Arnaez, O.; Arnault, C.; Artamonov, A.; Artoni, G.; Arutinov, D.; Asai, S.; Asfandiyarov, R.; Ask, S.; Åsman, B.; Asner, D.; Asquith, L.; Assamagan, K.; Astbury, A.; Astvatsatourov, A.; Atoian, G.; Aubert, B.; Auge, E.; Augsten, K.; Aurousseau, M.; Austin, N.; Avolio, G.; Avramidou, R.; Axen, D.; Ay, C.; Azuelos, G.; Azuma, Y.; Baak, M. A.; Baccaglioni, G.; Bacci, C.; Bach, A. M.; Bachacou, H.; Bachas, K.; Bachy, G.; Backes, M.; Backhaus, M.; Badescu, E.; Bagnaia, P.; Bahinipati, S.; Bai, Y.; Bailey, D. C.; Bain, T.; Baines, J. T.; Baker, O. K.; Baker, M. D.; Baker, S.; Banas, E.; Banerjee, P.; Banerjee, Sw.; Banfi, D.; Bangert, A.; Bansal, V.; Bansil, H. S.; Barak, L.; Baranov, S. P.; Barashkou, A.; Barbaro Galtieri, A.; Barber, T.; Barberio, E. L.; Barberis, D.; Barbero, M.; Bardin, D. Y.; Barillari, T.; Barisonzi, M.; Barklow, T.; Barlow, N.; Barnett, B. M.; Barnett, R. M.; Baroncelli, A.; Barone, G.; Barr, A. J.; Barreiro, F.; Barreiro Guimarães da Costa, J.; Barrillon, P.; Bartoldus, R.; Barton, A. E.; Bartsch, D.; Bartsch, V.; Bates, R. L.; Batkova, L.; Batley, J. R.; Battaglia, A.; Battistin, M.; Battistoni, G.; Bauer, F.; Bawa, H. S.; Beare, B.; Beau, T.; Beauchemin, P. H.; Beccherle, R.; Bechtle, P.; Beck, H. P.; Beck, G. A.; Beckingham, M.; Becks, K. H.; Beddall, A. J.; Beddall, A.; Bedikian, S.; Bednyakov, V. A.; Bee, C. P.; Begel, M.; Behar Harpaz, S.; Behera, P. K.; Beimforde, M.; Belanger-Champagne, C.; Bell, P. J.; Bell, W. H.; Bella, G.; Bellagamba, L.; Bellina, F.; Bellomo, M.; Belloni, A.; Beloborodova, O.; Belotskiy, K.; Beltramello, O.; Ben Ami, S.; Benary, O.; Benchekroun, D.; Benchouk, C.; Bendel, M.; Benekos, N.; Benhammou, Y.; Benjamin, D. P.; Benoit, M.; Bensinger, J. R.; Benslama, K.; Bentvelsen, S.; Beretta, M.; Berge, D.; Bergeaas Kuutmann, E.; Berger, N.; Berghaus, F.; Berglund, E.; Beringer, J.; Bernardet, K.; Bernat, P.; Bernhard, R.; Bernius, C.; Berry, T.; Bertin, A.; Bertinelli, F.; Bertolucci, F.; Besana, M. I.; Besson, N.; Bethke, S.; Bhimji, W.; Bianchi, R. M.; Bianco, M.; Biebel, O.; Bieniek, S. P.; Bierwagen, K.; Biesiada, J.; Biglietti, M.; Bilokon, H.; Bindi, M.; Binet, S.; Bingul, A.; Bini, C.; Biscarat, C.; Bitenc, U.; Black, K. M.; Blair, R. E.; Blanchard, J.-B.; Blanchot, G.; Blazek, T.; Blocker, C.; Blocki, J.; Blondel, A.; Blum, W.; Blumenschein, U.; Bobbink, G. J.; Bobrovnikov, V. B.; Bocchetta, S. S.; Bocci, A.; Boddy, C. 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N.; Sivoklokov, S. Yu.; Sjölin, J.; Sjursen, T. B.; Skinnari, L. A.; Skottowe, H. P.; Skovpen, K.; Skubic, P.; Skvorodnev, N.; Slater, M.; Slavicek, T.; Sliwa, K.; Sloper, J.; Smakhtin, V.; Smirnov, S. Yu.; Smirnov, Y.; Smirnova, L. N.; Smirnova, O.; Smith, B. C.; Smith, D.; Smith, K. M.; Smizanska, M.; Smolek, K.; Snesarev, A. A.; Snow, S. W.; Snow, J.; Snuverink, J.; Snyder, S.; Soares, M.; Sobie, R.; Sodomka, J.; Soffer, A.; Solans, C. A.; Solar, M.; Solc, J.; Soldatov, E.; Soldevila, U.; Solfaroli Camillocci, E.; Solodkov, A. A.; Solovyanov, O. V.; Sondericker, J.; Soni, N.; Sopko, V.; Sopko, B.; Sorbi, M.; Sosebee, M.; Soualah, R.; Soukharev, A.; Spagnolo, S.; Spanò, F.; Spighi, R.; Spigo, G.; Spila, F.; Spiriti, E.; Spiwoks, R.; Spousta, M.; Spreitzer, T.; Spurlock, B.; St. Denis, R. D.; Stahl, T.; Stahlman, J.; Stamen, R.; Stanecka, E.; Stanek, R. W.; Stanescu, C.; Stapnes, S.; Starchenko, E. A.; Stark, J.; Staroba, P.; Starovoitov, P.; Staude, A.; Stavina, P.; Stavropoulos, G.; Steele, G.; Steinbach, P.; Steinberg, P.; Stekl, I.; Stelzer, B.; Stelzer, H. J.; Stelzer-Chilton, O.; Stenzel, H.; Stevenson, K.; Stewart, G. A.; Stillings, J. A.; Stockmanns, T.; Stockton, M. C.; Stoerig, K.; Stoicea, G.; Stonjek, S.; Strachota, P.; Stradling, A. R.; Straessner, A.; Strandberg, J.; Strandberg, S.; Strandlie, A.; Strang, M.; Strauss, E.; Strauss, M.; Strizenec, P.; Ströhmer, R.; Strom, D. M.; Strong, J. A.; Stroynowski, R.; Strube, J.; Stugu, B.; Stumer, I.; Stupak, J.; Sturm, P.; Soh, D. A.; Su, D.; Subramania, HS.; Succurro, A.; Sugaya, Y.; Sugimoto, T.; Suhr, C.; Suita, K.; Suk, M.; Sulin, V. V.; Sultansoy, S.; Sumida, T.; Sun, X.; Sundermann, J. E.; Suruliz, K.; Sushkov, S.; Susinno, G.; Sutton, M. R.; Suzuki, Y.; Suzuki, Y.; Svatos, M.; Sviridov, Yu. M.; Swedish, S.; Sykora, I.; Sykora, T.; Szeless, B.; Sánchez, J.; Ta, D.; Tackmann, K.; Taffard, A.; Tafirout, R.; Taiblum, N.; Takahashi, Y.; Takai, H.; Takashima, R.; Takeda, H.; Takeshita, T.; Talby, M.; Talyshev, A.; Tamsett, M. C.; Tanaka, J.; Tanaka, R.; Tanaka, S.; Tanaka, S.; Tanaka, Y.; Tani, K.; Tannoury, N.; Tappern, G. P.; Tapprogge, S.; Tardif, D.; Tarem, S.; Tarrade, F.; Tartarelli, G. F.; Tas, P.; Tasevsky, M.; Tassi, E.; Tatarkhanov, M.; Tayalati, Y.; Taylor, C.; Taylor, F. E.; Taylor, G. N.; Taylor, W.; Teinturier, M.; Teixeira Dias Castanheira, M.; Teixeira-Dias, P.; Temming, K. K.; Ten Kate, H.; Teng, P. K.; Terada, S.; Terashi, K.; Terron, J.; Terwort, M.; Testa, M.; Teuscher, R. J.; Thadome, J.; Therhaag, J.; Theveneaux-Pelzer, T.; Thioye, M.; Thoma, S.; Thomas, J. P.; Thompson, E. N.; Thompson, P. D.; Thompson, P. D.; Thompson, A. S.; Thomson, E.; Thomson, M.; Thompson, R. J.; Thun, R. P.; Tian, F.; Tic, T.; Tikhomirov, V. O.; Tikhonov, Y. A.; Timmermans, C. J. W. P.; Tipton, P.; Tique Aires Viegas, F. J.; Tisserant, S.; Tobias, J.; Toczek, B.; Todorov, T.; Todorova-Nova, S.; Toggerson, B.; Tojo, J.; Tokár, S.; Tokunaga, K.; Tokushuku, K.; Tollefson, K.; Tomoto, M.; Tompkins, L.; Toms, K.; Tong, G.; Tonoyan, A.; Topfel, C.; Topilin, N. D.; Torchiani, I.; Torrence, E.; Torres, H.; Torró Pastor, E.; Toth, J.; Touchard, F.; Tovey, D. R.; Traynor, D.; Trefzger, T.; Tremblet, L.; Tricoli, A.; Trigger, I. M.; Trincaz-Duvoid, S.; Trinh, T. N.; Tripiana, M. F.; Trischuk, W.; Trivedi, A.; Trocmé, B.; Troncon, C.; Trottier-McDonald, M.; Trzupek, A.; Tsarouchas, C.; Tseng, J. C.-L.; Tsiakiris, M.; Tsiareshka, P. V.; Tsionou, D.; Tsipolitis, G.; Tsiskaridze, V.; Tskhadadze, E. G.; Tsukerman, I. I.; Tsulaia, V.; Tsung, J.-W.; Tsuno, S.; Tsybychev, D.; Tua, A.; Tudorache, A.; Tudorache, V.; Tuggle, J. M.; Turala, M.; Turecek, D.; Turk Cakir, I.; Turlay, E.; Turra, R.; Tuts, P. M.; Twomey, M. S.; Tykhonov, A.; Tylmad, M.; Tyndel, M.; Tyrvainen, H.; Tzanakos, G.; Uchida, K.; Ueda, I.; Ueno, R.; Ugland, M.; Uhlenbrock, M.; Uhrmacher, M.; Ukegawa, F.; Unal, G.; Underwood, D. G.; Undrus, A.; Unel, G.; Unno, Y.; Urbaniec, D.; Urkovsky, E.; Urrejola, P.; Usai, G.; Uslenghi, M.; Vacavant, L.; Vacek, V.; Vachon, B.; Vahsen, S.; Valenta, J.; Valente, P.; Valentinetti, S.; Valkar, S.; Valladolid Gallego, E.; Vallecorsa, S.; Valls Ferrer, J. A.; van der Graaf, H.; van der Kraaij, E.; Van Der Leeuw, R.; van der Poel, E.; van der Ster, D.; van Eldik, N.; van Gemmeren, P.; van Kesteren, Z.; van Vulpen, I.; Vanadia, M.; Vandelli, W.; Vandoni, G.; Vaniachine, A.; Vankov, P.; Vannucci, F.; Varela Rodriguez, F.; Vari, R.; Varnes, E. W.; Varouchas, D.; Vartapetian, A.; Varvell, K. E.; Vassilakopoulos, V. I.; Vazeille, F.; Vegni, G.; Veillet, J. J.; Vellidis, C.; Veloso, F.; Veness, R.; Veneziano, S.; Ventura, A.; Ventura, D.; Venturi, M.; Venturi, N.; Vercesi, V.; Verducci, M.; Verkerke, W.; Vermeulen, J. C.; Vest, A.; Vetterli, M. C.; Vichou, I.; Vickey, T.; Vickey Boeriu, O. E.; Viehhauser, G. H. A.; Viel, S.; Villa, M.; Villani, E. G.; Villaplana Perez, M.; Vilucchi, E.; Vincter, M. G.; Vinek, E.; Vinogradov, V. B.; Virchaux, M.; Virzi, J.; Vitells, O.; Viti, M.; Vivarelli, I.; Vives Vaque, F.; Vlachos, S.; Vladoiu, D.; Vlasak, M.; Vlasov, N.; Vogel, A.; Vokac, P.; Volpi, G.; Volpi, M.; Volpini, G.; von der Schmitt, H.; von Loeben, J.; von Radziewski, H.; von Toerne, E.; Vorobel, V.; Vorobiev, A. P.; Vorwerk, V.; Vos, M.; Voss, R.; Voss, T. T.; Vossebeld, J. H.; Vranjes, N.; Vranjes Milosavljevic, M.; Vrba, V.; Vreeswijk, M.; Vu Anh, T.; Vuillermet, R.; Vujicic, M.; Vukotic, I.; Wagner, W.; Wagner, P.; Wahlen, H.; Wakabayashi, J.; Walbersloh, J.; Walch, S.; Walder, J.; Walker, R.; Walkowiak, W.; Wall, R.; Waller, P.; Wang, C.; Wang, H.; Wang, H.; Wang, J.; Wang, J.; Wang, J. C.; Wang, R.; Wang, S. M.; Warburton, A.; Ward, C. P.; Warsinsky, M.; Wastie, R.; Watkins, P. M.; Watson, A. T.; Watson, M. F.; Watts, G.; Watts, S.; Waugh, A. T.; Waugh, B. M.; Weber, J.; Weber, M.; Weber, M. S.; Weber, P.; Weidberg, A. R.; Weigell, P.; Weingarten, J.; Weiser, C.; Wellenstein, H.; Wells, P. S.; Wen, M.; Wenaus, T.; Wendler, S.; Weng, Z.; Wengler, T.; Wenig, S.; Wermes, N.; Werner, M.; Werner, P.; Werth, M.; Wessels, M.; Weydert, C.; Whalen, K.; Wheeler-Ellis, S. J.; Whitaker, S. P.; White, A.; White, M. J.; White, S.; Whitehead, S. R.; Whiteson, D.; Whittington, D.; Wicek, F.; Wicke, D.; Wickens, F. J.; Wiedenmann, W.; Wielers, M.; Wienemann, P.; Wiglesworth, C.; Wiik-Fuchs, L. A. M.; Wijeratne, P. A.; Wildauer, A.; Wildt, M. A.; Wilhelm, I.; Wilkens, H. G.; Will, J. Z.; Williams, E.; Williams, H. H.; Willis, W.; Willocq, S.; Wilson, J. A.; Wilson, M. G.; Wilson, A.; Wingerter-Seez, I.; Winkelmann, S.; Winklmeier, F.; Wittgen, M.; Wolter, M. W.; Wolters, H.; Wong, W. C.; Wooden, G.; Wosiek, B. K.; Wotschack, J.; Woudstra, M. J.; Wraight, K.; Wright, C.; Wright, M.; Wright, D.; Wrona, B.; Wu, S. L.; Wu, X.; Wu, Y.; Wulf, E.; Wunstorf, R.; Wynne, B. M.; Xaplanteris, L.; Xella, S.; Xie, S.; Xie, Y.; Xu, C.; Xu, D.; Xu, G.; Yabsley, B.; Yacoob, S.; Yamada, M.; Yamaguchi, H.; Yamamoto, A.; Yamamoto, K.; Yamamoto, S.; Yamamura, T.; Yamanaka, T.; Yamaoka, J.; Yamazaki, T.; Yamazaki, Y.; Yan, Z.; Yang, H.; Yang, U. K.; Yang, Y.; Yang, Y.; Yang, Z.; Yanush, S.; Yao, Y.; Yasu, Y.; Ybeles Smit, G. V.; Ye, J.; Ye, S.; Yilmaz, M.; Yoosoofmiya, R.; Yorita, K.; Yoshida, R.; Young, C.; Youssef, S.; Yu, D.; Yu, J.; Yu, J.; Yuan, L.; Yurkewicz, A.; Zaets, V. G.; Zaidan, R.; Zaitsev, A. M.; Zajacova, Z.; Zalite, Yo. K.; Zanello, L.; Zarzhitsky, P.; Zaytsev, A.; Zeitnitz, C.; Zeller, M.; Zeman, M.; Zemla, A.; Zendler, C.; Zenin, O.; Ženiš, T.; Zenonos, Z.; Zenz, S.; Zerwas, D.; Zevi della Porta, G.; Zhan, Z.; Zhang, D.; Zhang, H.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, X.; Zhang, Z.; Zhang, Q.; Zhao, L.; Zhao, T.; Zhao, Z.; Zhemchugov, A.; Zheng, S.; Zhong, J.; Zhou, B.; Zhou, N.; Zhou, Y.; Zhu, C. G.; Zhu, H.; Zhu, J.; Zhu, Y.; Zhuang, X.; Zhuravlov, V.; Zieminska, D.; Zimmermann, R.; Zimmermann, S.; Zimmermann, S.; Zinonos, Z.; Ziolkowski, M.; Zitoun, R.; Živković, L.; Zmouchko, V. V.; Zobernig, G.; Zoccoli, A.; Zolnierowski, Y.; Zsenei, A.; zur Nedden, M.; Zutshi, V.; Zwalinski, L.

2013-03-01

The jet energy scale and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt{s}=7 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 38 pb-1. Jets are reconstructed with the anti- k t algorithm with distance parameters R=0.4 or R=0.6. Jet energy and angle corrections are determined from Monte Carlo simulations to calibrate jets with transverse momenta p T≥20 GeV and pseudorapidities | η|<4.5. The jet energy systematic uncertainty is estimated using the single isolated hadron response measured in situ and in test-beams, exploiting the transverse momentum balance between central and forward jets in events with dijet topologies and studying systematic variations in Monte Carlo simulations. The jet energy uncertainty is less than 2.5 % in the central calorimeter region (| η|<0.8) for jets with 60≤ p T<800 GeV, and is maximally 14 % for p T<30 GeV in the most forward region 3.2≤| η|<4.5. The jet energy is validated for jet transverse momenta up to 1 TeV to the level of a few percent using several in situ techniques by comparing a well-known reference such as the recoiling photon p T, the sum of the transverse momenta of tracks associated to the jet, or a system of low- p T jets recoiling against a high- p T jet. More sophisticated jet calibration schemes are presented based on calorimeter cell energy density weighting or hadronic properties of jets, aiming for an improved jet energy resolution and a reduced flavour dependence of the jet response. The systematic uncertainty of the jet energy determined from a combination of in situ techniques is consistent with the one derived from single hadron response measurements over a wide kinematic range. The nominal corrections and uncertainties are derived for isolated jets in an inclusive sample of high- p T jets. Special cases such as event topologies with close-by jets, or selections of samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks, heavy quarks or gluons are also discussed and the corresponding uncertainties are determined.

Jet energy measurement with the ATLAS detector in proton-proton collisions at $$\\sqrt{\\mathrm{s}}=7\\ \\mathrm{TeV}$$

DOE PAGES

Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; Abdallah, J.; ...

2013-03-02

The jet energy scale and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 38 pb -1. Jets are reconstructed with the anti-k t algorithm with distance parameters R = 0.4 or R = 0.6. Jet energy and angle corrections are determined from Monte Carlo simulations to calibrate jets with transverse momenta p T ≥ 20 GeV and pseudorapidities |η| < 4.5. The jet energy systematic uncertainty is estimated using the single isolated hadron responsemore » measured in situ and in test-beams, exploiting the transverse momentum balance between central and forward jets in events with dijet topologies and studying systematic variations in Monte Carlo simulations. The jet energy uncertainty is less than 2.5 % in the central calorimeter region (|η| < 0.8) for jets with 60 ≤ p T < 800 GeV, and is maximally 14 % for p T ≤ 30 GeV in the most forward region 3.2 ≤ |η| < 4.5. The jet energy is validated for jet transverse momenta up to 1 TeV to the level of a few percent using several in situ techniques by comparing a well-known reference such as the recoiling photon p T, the sum of the transverse momenta of tracks associated to the jet, or a system of low-p T jets recoiling against a high-p T jet. More sophisticated jet calibration schemes are presented based on calorimeter cell energy density weighting or hadronic properties of jets, aiming for an improved jet energy resolution and a reduced flavour dependence of the jet response. The systematic uncertainty of the jet energy determined from a combination of in situ techniques is consistent with the one derived from single hadron response measurements over a wide kinematic range. The nominal corrections and uncertainties are derived for isolated jets in an inclusive sample of high-p T jets. Special cases such as event topologies with close-by jets, or selections of samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks, heavy quarks or gluons are also discussed and the corresponding uncertainties are determined.« less

Environmental Scanning in Educational Planning: Establishing a Strategic Trend Information System.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrison, James L.

The systematic evaluation of the macroenvironment is sometimes referred to as a strategic trend information system. Strategic trend intelligence systems are highly developed, systematic intelligence programs that focus on trends and events in the external environment and provide institutions with knowledge to reduce areas of uncertainty and with…

SPIDER. V. MEASURING SYSTEMATIC EFFECTS IN EARLY-TYPE GALAXY STELLAR MASSES FROM PHOTOMETRIC SPECTRAL ENERGY DISTRIBUTION FITTING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Swindle, R.; Gal, R. R.; La Barbera, F.

2011-10-15

We present robust statistical estimates of the accuracy of early-type galaxy stellar masses derived from spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting as functions of various empirical and theoretical assumptions. Using large samples consisting of {approx}40,000 galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS; ugriz), of which {approx}5000 are also in the UKIRT Infrared Deep Sky Survey (YJHK), with spectroscopic redshifts in the range 0.05 {<=} z {<=} 0.095, we test the reliability of some commonly used stellar population models and extinction laws for computing stellar masses. Spectroscopic ages (t), metallicities (Z), and extinctions (A{sub V} ) are also computed from fitsmore » to SDSS spectra using various population models. These external constraints are used in additional tests to estimate the systematic errors in the stellar masses derived from SED fitting, where t, Z, and A{sub V} are typically left as free parameters. We find reasonable agreement in mass estimates among stellar population models, with variation of the initial mass function and extinction law yielding systematic biases on the mass of nearly a factor of two, in agreement with other studies. Removing the near-infrared bands changes the statistical bias in mass by only {approx}0.06 dex, adding uncertainties of {approx}0.1 dex at the 95% CL. In contrast, we find that removing an ultraviolet band is more critical, introducing 2{sigma} uncertainties of {approx}0.15 dex. Finally, we find that the stellar masses are less affected by the absence of metallicity and/or dust extinction knowledge. However, there is a definite systematic offset in the mass estimate when the stellar population age is unknown, up to a factor of 2.5 for very old (12 Gyr) stellar populations. We present the stellar masses for our sample, corrected for the measured systematic biases due to photometrically determined ages, finding that age errors produce lower stellar masses by {approx}0.15 dex, with errors of {approx}0.02 dex at the 95% CL for the median stellar age subsample.« less

Geodetic imaging of tectonic deformation with InSAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fattahi, Heresh

Precise measurements of ground deformation across the plate boundaries are crucial observations to evaluate the location of strain localization and to understand the pattern of strain accumulation at depth. Such information can be used to evaluate the possible location and magnitude of future earthquakes. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) potentially can deliver small-scale (few mm/yr) ground displacement over long distances (hundreds of kilometers) across the plate boundaries and over continents. However, Given the ground displacement as our signal of interest, the InSAR observations of ground deformation are usually affected by several sources of systematic and random noises. In this dissertation I identify several sources of systematic and random noise, develop new methods to model and mitigate the systematic noise and to evaluate the uncertainty of the ground displacement measured with InSAR. I use the developed approach to characterize the tectonic deformation and evaluate the rate of strain accumulation along the Chaman fault system, the western boundary of the India with Eurasia tectonic plates. I evaluate the bias due to the topographic residuals in the InSAR range-change time-series and develope a new method to estimate the topographic residuals and mitigate the effect from the InSAR range-change time-series (Chapter 2). I develop a new method to evaluate the uncertainty of the InSAR velocity field due to the uncertainty of the satellite orbits (Chapter 3) and a new algorithm to automatically detect and correct the phase unwrapping errors in a dense network of interferograms (Chapter 4). I develop a new approach to evaluate the impact of systematic and stochastic components of the tropospheric delay on the InSAR displacement time-series and its uncertainty (Chapter 5). Using the new InSAR time-series approach developed in the previous chapters, I study the tectonic deformation across the western boundary of the India plate with Eurasia and evaluated the rate of strain accumulation along the Chaman fault system (Chapter 5). I also evaluate the co-seismic and post-seismic displacement of a moderate M5.5 earthquake on the Ghazaband fault (Chapter 6). The developed methods to mitigate the systematic noise from InSAR time-series, significantly improve the accuracy of the InSAR displacement time-series and velocity. The approaches to evaluate the effect of the stochastic components of noise in InSAR displacement time-series enable us to obtain the variance-covariance matrix of the InSAR displacement time-series and to express their uncertainties. The effect of the topographic residuals in the InSAR range-change time-series is proportional to the perpendicular baseline history of the set of SAR acquisitions. The proposed method for topographic residual correction, efficiently corrects the displacement time-series. Evaluation of the uncertainty of velocity due to the orbital errors shows that for modern SAR satellites with precise orbits such as TerraSAR-X and Sentinel-1, the uncertainty of 0.2 mm/yr per 100 km and for older satellites with less accurate orbits such as ERS and Envisat, the uncertainty of 1.5 and 0.5mm/yr per 100 km, respectively are achievable. However, the uncertainty due to the orbital errors depends on the orbital uncertainties, the number and time span of SAR acquisitions. Contribution of the tropospheric delay to the InSAR range-change time-series can be subdivided to systematic (seasonal delay) and stochastic components. The systematic component biases the displacement times-series and velocity field as a function of the acquisition time and the non-seasonal component significantly contributes to the InSAR uncertainty. Both components are spatially correlated and therefore the covariance of noise between pixels should be considered for evaluating the uncertainty due to the random tropospheric delay. The relative velocity uncertainty due to the random tropospheric delay depends on the scatter of the random tropospheric delay, and is inversely proportional to the number of acquisitions, and the total time span covered by the SAR acquisitions. InSAR observations across the Chaman fault system shows that relative motion between India and Eurasia in the western boundary is distributed among different faults. The InSAR velocity field indicates strain localization on the Chaman fault and Ghazaband fault with slip rates of ~8 and ~16 mm/yr, respectively. High rate of strain accumulation on the Ghazaband fault and lack of evidence for rupturing the fault during the 1935 Quetta earthquake indicates that enough strain has been accumulated for large (M>7) earthquake, which threatens Balochistan and the City of Quetta. Chaman fault from latitudes ~29.5 N to ~32.5 N is creeping with a maximum surface creep rate of 8 mm/yr, which indicates that Chaman fault is only partially locked and therefore moderate earthquakes (M<7) similar to what has been recorded in last 100 years are expected.

Key comparison CCPR-K1.a as an interlaboratory comparison of correlated color temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kärhä, P.; Vaskuri, A.; Pulli, T.; Ikonen, E.

2018-02-01

We analyze the results of spectral irradiance key comparison CCPR-K1.a for correlated color temperature (CCT). For four participants out of 13, the uncertainties of CCT, calculated using traditional methods, not accounting for correlations, would be too small. The reason for the failure of traditional uncertainty calculation is spectral correlations, producing systematic deviations of the same sign over certain wavelength regions. The results highlight the importance of accounting for such correlations when calculating uncertainties of spectrally integrated quantities.

Uncertainties in climate data sets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcguirk, James P.

1992-01-01

Climate diagnostics are constructed from either analyzed fields or from observational data sets. Those that have been commonly used are normally considered ground truth. However, in most of these collections, errors and uncertainties exist which are generally ignored due to the consistency of usage over time. Examples of uncertainties and errors are described in NMC and ECMWF analyses and in satellite observational sets-OLR, TOVS, and SMMR. It is suggested that these errors can be large, systematic, and not negligible in climate analysis.

Accounting for baryonic effects in cosmic shear tomography: Determining a minimal set of nuisance parameters using PCA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eifler, Tim; Krause, Elisabeth; Dodelson, Scott

2014-05-28

Systematic uncertainties that have been subdominant in past large-scale structure (LSS) surveys are likely to exceed statistical uncertainties of current and future LSS data sets, potentially limiting the extraction of cosmological information. Here we present a general framework (PCA marginalization) to consistently incorporate systematic effects into a likelihood analysis. This technique naturally accounts for degeneracies between nuisance parameters and can substantially reduce the dimension of the parameter space that needs to be sampled. As a practical application, we apply PCA marginalization to account for baryonic physics as an uncertainty in cosmic shear tomography. Specifically, we use CosmoLike to run simulatedmore » likelihood analyses on three independent sets of numerical simulations, each covering a wide range of baryonic scenarios differing in cooling, star formation, and feedback mechanisms. We simulate a Stage III (Dark Energy Survey) and Stage IV (Large Synoptic Survey Telescope/Euclid) survey and find a substantial bias in cosmological constraints if baryonic physics is not accounted for. We then show that PCA marginalization (employing at most 3 to 4 nuisance parameters) removes this bias. Our study demonstrates that it is possible to obtain robust, precise constraints on the dark energy equation of state even in the presence of large levels of systematic uncertainty in astrophysical processes. We conclude that the PCA marginalization technique is a powerful, general tool for addressing many of the challenges facing the precision cosmology program.« less

The application of the heuristic-systematic processing model to treatment decision making about prostate cancer.

PubMed

Steginga, Suzanne K; Occhipinti, Stefano

2004-01-01

The study investigated the utility of the Heuristic-Systematic Processing Model as a framework for the investigation of patient decision making. A total of 111 men recently diagnosed with localized prostate cancer were assessed using Verbal Protocol Analysis and self-report measures. Study variables included men's use of nonsystematic and systematic information processing, desire for involvement in decision making, and the individual differences of health locus of control, tolerance of ambiguity, and decision-related uncertainty. Most men (68%) preferred that decision making be shared equally between them and their doctor. Men's use of the expert opinion heuristic was related to men's verbal reports of decisional uncertainty and having a positive orientation to their doctor and medical care; a desire for greater involvement in decision making was predicted by a high internal locus of health control. Trends were observed for systematic information processing to increase when the heuristic strategy used was negatively affect laden and when men were uncertain about the probabilities for cure and side effects. There was a trend for decreased systematic processing when the expert opinion heuristic was used. Findings were consistent with the Heuristic-Systematic Processing Model and suggest that this model has utility for future research in applied decision making about health.

Uncertainties in the deprojection of the observed bar properties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zou, Yanfei; Shen, Juntai; Li, Zhao-Yu, E-mail: jshen@shao.ac.cn

2014-08-10

In observations, it is important to deproject the two fundamental quantities characterizing a bar, i.e., its length (a) and ellipticity (e), to face-on values before any careful analyses. However, systematic estimation on the uncertainties of the commonly used deprojection methods is still lacking. Simulated galaxies are well suited in this study. We project two simulated barred galaxies onto a two-dimensional (2D) plane with different bar orientations and disk inclination angles (i). Bar properties are measured and deprojected with the popular deprojection methods in the literature. Generally speaking, deprojection uncertainties increase with increasing i. All of the deprojection methods behave badlymore » when i is larger than 60°, due to the vertical thickness of the bar. Thus, future statistical studies of barred galaxies should exclude galaxies more inclined than 60°. At moderate inclination angles (i ≤ 60°), 2D deprojection methods (analytical and image stretching), and Fourier-based methods (Fourier decomposition and bar-interbar contrast) perform reasonably well with uncertainties ∼10% in both the bar length and ellipticity, whereas the uncertainties of the one-dimensional (1D) analytical deprojection can be as high as 100% in certain extreme cases. We find that different bar measurement methods show systematic differences in the deprojection uncertainties. We further discuss the deprojection uncertainty factors with the emphasis on the most important one, i.e., the three-dimensional structure of the bar itself. We construct two triaxial toy bar models that can qualitatively reproduce the results of the 1D and 2D analytical deprojections; they confirm that the vertical thickness of the bar is the main source of uncertainties.« less

NLO QCD predictions for Z+γ + jets production with Sherpa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krause, Johannes; Siegert, Frank

2018-02-01

We present precise predictions for prompt photon production in association with a Z boson and jets. They are obtained within the Sherpa framework as a consistently merged inclusive sample. Leptonic decays of the Z boson are fully included in the calculation with all off-shell effects. Virtual matrix elements are provided by OpenLoops and parton-shower effects are simulated with a dipole parton shower. Thanks to the NLO QCD corrections included not only for inclusive Zγ production but also for the Zγ + 1-jet process we find significantly reduced systematic uncertainties and very good agreement with experimental measurements at √{s}=8 TeV. Predictions at √{s}=13 TeV are displayed including a study of theoretical uncertainties. In view of an application of these simulations within LHC experiments, we discuss in detail the necessary combination with a simulation of the Z + jets final state. In addition to a corresponding prescription we introduce recommended cross checks to avoid common pitfalls during the overlap removal between the two samples.

Determination of the proton-to-helium ratio in cosmic rays at ultra-high energies from the tail of the Xmax distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yushkov, A.; Risse, M.; Werner, M.; Krieg, J.

2016-12-01

We present a method to determine the proton-to-helium ratio in cosmic rays at ultra-high energies. It makes use of the exponential slope, Λ, of the tail of the Xmax distribution measured by an air shower experiment. The method is quite robust with respect to uncertainties from modeling hadronic interactions and to systematic errors on Xmax and energy, and to the possible presence of primary nuclei heavier than helium. Obtaining the proton-to-helium ratio with air shower experiments would be a remarkable achievement. To quantify the applicability of a particular mass-sensitive variable for mass composition analysis despite hadronic uncertainties we introduce as a metric the 'analysis indicator' and find an improved performance of the Λ method compared to other variables currently used in the literature. The fraction of events in the tail of the Xmax distribution can provide additional information on the presence of nuclei heavier than helium in the primary beam.

Neutron Thermal Cross Sections, Westcott Factors, Resonance Integrals, Maxwellian Averaged Cross Sections and Astrophysical Reaction Rates Calculated from the ENDF/B-VII.1, JEFF-3.1.2, JENDL-4.0, ROSFOND-2010, CENDL-3.1 and EAF-2010 Evaluated Data Libraries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pritychenko, B.; Mughabghab, S. F.

2012-12-01

We present calculations of neutron thermal cross sections, Westcott factors, resonance integrals, Maxwellian-averaged cross sections and astrophysical reaction rates for 843 ENDF materials using data from the major evaluated nuclear libraries and European activation file. Extensive analysis of newly-evaluated neutron reaction cross sections, neutron covariances, and improvements in data processing techniques motivated us to calculate nuclear industry and neutron physics quantities, produce s-process Maxwellian-averaged cross sections and astrophysical reaction rates, systematically calculate uncertainties, and provide additional insights on currently available neutron-induced reaction data. Nuclear reaction calculations are discussed and new results are presented. Due to space limitations, the present paper contains only calculated Maxwellian-averaged cross sections and their uncertainties. The complete data sets for all results are published in the Brookhaven National Laboratory report.

Fermi LAT observations of cosmic-ray electrons from 7 GeV to 1 TeV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ackermann, M.

We present the results of our analysis of cosmic-ray electrons using about 8 × 10 6 electron candidates detected in the first 12 months on-orbit by the Fermi Large Area Telescope. This work extends our previously published cosmic-ray electron spectrum down to 7 GeV, giving a spectral range of approximately 2.5 decades up to 1 TeV. We describe in detail the analysis and its validation using beam-test and on-orbit data. In addition, we describe the spectrum measured via a subset of events selected for the best energy resolution as a cross-check on the measurement using the full event sample. Ourmore » electron spectrum can be described with a power law ∝ E - 3.08 ± 0.05 with no prominent spectral features within systematic uncertainties. Within the limits of our uncertainties, we can accommodate a slight spectral hardening at around 100 GeV and a slight softening above 500 GeV.« less

Fermi LAT observations of cosmic-ray electrons from 7 GeV to 1 TeV

DOE PAGES

Ackermann, M.

2010-11-01

We present the results of our analysis of cosmic-ray electrons using about 8 × 10 6 electron candidates detected in the first 12 months on-orbit by the Fermi Large Area Telescope. This work extends our previously published cosmic-ray electron spectrum down to 7 GeV, giving a spectral range of approximately 2.5 decades up to 1 TeV. We describe in detail the analysis and its validation using beam-test and on-orbit data. In addition, we describe the spectrum measured via a subset of events selected for the best energy resolution as a cross-check on the measurement using the full event sample. Ourmore » electron spectrum can be described with a power law ∝ E - 3.08 ± 0.05 with no prominent spectral features within systematic uncertainties. Within the limits of our uncertainties, we can accommodate a slight spectral hardening at around 100 GeV and a slight softening above 500 GeV.« less

Fermi LAT observations of cosmic-ray electrons from 7 GeV to 1 TeV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ackermann, M.; Ajello, M.; Bechtol, K.

We present the results of our analysis of cosmic-ray electrons using about 8x10{sup 6} electron candidates detected in the first 12 months on-orbit by the Fermi Large Area Telescope. This work extends our previously published cosmic-ray electron spectrum down to 7 GeV, giving a spectral range of approximately 2.5 decades up to 1 TeV. We describe in detail the analysis and its validation using beam-test and on-orbit data. In addition, we describe the spectrum measured via a subset of events selected for the best energy resolution as a cross-check on the measurement using the full event sample. Our electron spectrummore » can be described with a power law {proportional_to}E{sup -3.08{+-}0.05} with no prominent spectral features within systematic uncertainties. Within the limits of our uncertainties, we can accommodate a slight spectral hardening at around 100 GeV and a slight softening above 500 GeV.« less

Integrating uncertainty propagation in GNSS radio occultation retrieval: from excess phase to atmospheric bending angle profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwarz, Jakob; Kirchengast, Gottfried; Schwaerz, Marc

2018-05-01

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) observations are highly accurate, long-term stable data sets and are globally available as a continuous record from 2001. Essential climate variables for the thermodynamic state of the free atmosphere - such as pressure, temperature, and tropospheric water vapor profiles (involving background information) - can be derived from these records, which therefore have the potential to serve as climate benchmark data. However, to exploit this potential, atmospheric profile retrievals need to be very accurate and the remaining uncertainties quantified and traced throughout the retrieval chain from raw observations to essential climate variables. The new Reference Occultation Processing System (rOPS) at the Wegener Center aims to deliver such an accurate RO retrieval chain with integrated uncertainty propagation. Here we introduce and demonstrate the algorithms implemented in the rOPS for uncertainty propagation from excess phase to atmospheric bending angle profiles, for estimated systematic and random uncertainties, including vertical error correlations and resolution estimates. We estimated systematic uncertainty profiles with the same operators as used for the basic state profiles retrieval. The random uncertainty is traced through covariance propagation and validated using Monte Carlo ensemble methods. The algorithm performance is demonstrated using test day ensembles of simulated data as well as real RO event data from the satellite missions CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP); Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC); and Meteorological Operational Satellite A (MetOp). The results of the Monte Carlo validation show that our covariance propagation delivers correct uncertainty quantification from excess phase to bending angle profiles. The results from the real RO event ensembles demonstrate that the new uncertainty estimation chain performs robustly. Together with the other parts of the rOPS processing chain this part is thus ready to provide integrated uncertainty propagation through the whole RO retrieval chain for the benefit of climate monitoring and other applications.

Numerical Uncertainty Quantification for Radiation Analysis Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Brooke; Blattnig, Steve; Clowdsley, Martha

2007-01-01

Recently a new emphasis has been placed on engineering applications of space radiation analyses and thus a systematic effort of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification (VV&UQ) of the tools commonly used for radiation analysis for vehicle design and mission planning has begun. There are two sources of uncertainty in geometric discretization addressed in this paper that need to be quantified in order to understand the total uncertainty in estimating space radiation exposures. One source of uncertainty is in ray tracing, as the number of rays increase the associated uncertainty decreases, but the computational expense increases. Thus, a cost benefit analysis optimizing computational time versus uncertainty is needed and is addressed in this paper. The second source of uncertainty results from the interpolation over the dose vs. depth curves that is needed to determine the radiation exposure. The question, then, is what is the number of thicknesses that is needed to get an accurate result. So convergence testing is performed to quantify the uncertainty associated with interpolating over different shield thickness spatial grids.

Disentangling dark energy and cosmic tests of gravity from weak lensing systematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laszlo, Istvan; Bean, Rachel; Kirk, Donnacha; Bridle, Sarah

2012-06-01

We consider the impact of key astrophysical and measurement systematics on constraints on dark energy and modifications to gravity on cosmic scales. We focus on upcoming photometric ‘stage III’ and ‘stage IV’ large-scale structure surveys such as the Dark Energy Survey (DES), the Subaru Measurement of Images and Redshifts survey, the Euclid survey, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) and Wide Field Infra-Red Space Telescope (WFIRST). We illustrate the different redshift dependencies of gravity modifications compared to intrinsic alignments, the main astrophysical systematic. The way in which systematic uncertainties, such as galaxy bias and intrinsic alignments, are modelled can change dark energy equation-of-state parameter and modified gravity figures of merit by a factor of 4. The inclusion of cross-correlations of cosmic shear and galaxy position measurements helps reduce the loss of constraining power from the lensing shear surveys. When forecasts for Planck cosmic microwave background and stage IV surveys are combined, constraints on the dark energy equation-of-state parameter and modified gravity model are recovered, relative to those from shear data with no systematic uncertainties, provided fewer than 36 free parameters in total are used to describe the galaxy bias and intrinsic alignment models as a function of scale and redshift. While some uncertainty in the intrinsic alignment (IA) model can be tolerated, it is going to be important to be able to parametrize IAs well in order to realize the full potential of upcoming surveys. To facilitate future investigations, we also provide a fitting function for the matter power spectrum arising from the phenomenological modified gravity model we consider.

Oscillator strengths of the Si II 181 nanometer resonance multiplet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bergeson, S. D.; Lawler, J. E.

1993-01-01

We report Si II experimental log (gf)-values of -2.38(4) for the 180.801 nm line, of -2.18(4) for the 181.693 nm line, and of -3.29(5) for the 181.745 nm line, where the number in parentheses is the uncertainty in the last digit. The overall uncertainties (about 10 percent) include the 1 sigma random uncertainty (about 6 percent) and an estimate of the systematic uncertainty. The oscillator strengths are determined by combining branching fractions and radiative lifetimes. The branching fractions are measured using standard spectroradiometry on an optically thin source; the radiative lifetimes are measured using time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence.

Application of radiosonde data to VERITAS simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniel, M. K.

The atmosphere is a vital component of the detector in an atmospheric Cherenkov telescope. In order to understand observations from these instruments and reduce systematic uncertainties and biases in their data it is important to correctly model the atmosphere in simulations of the extensive air showers they detect. The Very High Energy Telescope Array (VERITAS) is a system of 4 such telescopes located at the Whipple Observatory in Southern Arizona. Daily radiosonde measurements from the nearby Tucson airport allow an accurate model of the atmosphere for the VERITAS experiment to be constructed. Comparison of the radiosonde data to existing atmospheric models is performed and the expected effects on the systematic uncertainties are summarised here.

Multivariate analysis techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bendavid, Josh; Fisher, Wade C.; Junk, Thomas R.

2016-01-01

The end products of experimental data analysis are designed to be simple and easy to understand: hypothesis tests and measurements of parameters. But, the experimental data themselves are voluminous and complex. Furthermore, in modern collider experiments, many petabytes of data must be processed in search of rare new processes which occur together with much more copious background processes that are of less interest to the task at hand. The systematic uncertainties on the background may be larger than the expected signal in many cases. The statistical power of an analysis and its sensitivity to systematic uncertainty can therefore usually bothmore » be improved by separating signal events from background events with higher efficiency and purity.« less

Mapping the absolute magnetic field and evaluating the quadratic Zeeman-effect-induced systematic error in an atom interferometer gravimeter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Qing-Qing; Freier, Christian; Leykauf, Bastian; Schkolnik, Vladimir; Yang, Jun; Krutzik, Markus; Peters, Achim

2017-09-01

Precisely evaluating the systematic error induced by the quadratic Zeeman effect is important for developing atom interferometer gravimeters aiming at an accuracy in the μ Gal regime (1 μ Gal =10-8m /s2 ≈10-9g ). This paper reports on the experimental investigation of Raman spectroscopy-based magnetic field measurements and the evaluation of the systematic error in the gravimetric atom interferometer (GAIN) due to quadratic Zeeman effect. We discuss Raman duration and frequency step-size-dependent magnetic field measurement uncertainty, present vector light shift and tensor light shift induced magnetic field measurement offset, and map the absolute magnetic field inside the interferometer chamber of GAIN with an uncertainty of 0.72 nT and a spatial resolution of 12.8 mm. We evaluate the quadratic Zeeman-effect-induced gravity measurement error in GAIN as 2.04 μ Gal . The methods shown in this paper are important for precisely mapping the absolute magnetic field in vacuum and reducing the quadratic Zeeman-effect-induced systematic error in Raman transition-based precision measurements, such as atomic interferometer gravimeters.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-11-01

A sound approach to rational decision making requires a decision maker to establish decision objectives, identify alternatives, and evaluate those...often violate the axioms of rationality when making decisions under uncertainty. The systematic description of such observations may lead to the...which leads to “anchoring” on the initial value. The fact that individuals have been shown to deviate from rationality when making decisions

Calibration and Validation of Landsat Tree Cover in the Taiga-Tundra Ecotone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Montesano, Paul Mannix; Neigh, Christopher S. R.; Sexton, Joseph; Feng, Min; Channan, Saurabh; Ranson, Kenneth J.; Townshend, John R.

2016-01-01

Monitoring current forest characteristics in the taiga-tundra ecotone (TTE) at multiple scales is critical for understanding its vulnerability to structural changes. A 30 m spatial resolution Landsat-based tree canopy cover map has been calibrated and validated in the TTE with reference tree cover data from airborne LiDAR and high resolution spaceborne images across the full range of boreal forest tree cover. This domain-specific calibration model used estimates of forest height to determine reference forest cover that best matched Landsat estimates. The model removed the systematic under-estimation of tree canopy cover greater than 80% and indicated that Landsat estimates of tree canopy cover more closely matched canopies at least 2 m in height rather than 5 m. The validation improved estimates of uncertainty in tree canopy cover in discontinuous TTE forests for three temporal epochs (2000, 2005, and 2010) by reducing systematic errors, leading to increases in tree canopy cover uncertainty. Average pixel-level uncertainties in tree canopy cover were 29.0%, 27.1% and 31.1% for the 2000, 2005 and 2010 epochs, respectively. Maps from these calibrated data improve the uncertainty associated with Landsat tree canopy cover estimates in the discontinuous forests of the circumpolar TTE.

Optimal integrated abundances for chemical tagging of extragalactic globular clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakari, Charli M.; Venn, Kim; Shetrone, Matthew; Dotter, Aaron; Mackey, Dougal

2014-09-01

High-resolution integrated light (IL) spectroscopy provides detailed abundances of distant globular clusters whose stars cannot be resolved. Abundance comparisons with other systems (e.g. for chemical tagging) require understanding the systematic offsets that can occur between clusters, such as those due to uncertainties in the underlying stellar population. This paper analyses high-resolution IL spectra of the Galactic globular clusters 47 Tuc, M3, M13, NGC 7006, and M15 to (1) quantify potential systematic uncertainties in Fe, Ca, Ti, Ni, Ba, and Eu and (2) identify the most stable abundance ratios that will be useful in future analyses of unresolved targets. When stellar populations are well modelled, uncertainties are ˜0.1-0.2 dex based on sensitivities to the atmospheric parameters alone; in the worst-case scenarios, uncertainties can rise to 0.2-0.4 dex. The [Ca I/Fe I] ratio is identified as the optimal integrated [α/Fe] indicator (with offsets ≲ 0.1 dex), while [Ni I/Fe I] is also extremely stable to within ≲ 0.1 dex. The [Ba II/Eu II] ratios are also stable when the underlying populations are well modelled and may also be useful for chemical tagging.

A systematic uncertainty analysis for liner impedance eduction technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Lin; Bodén, Hans

2015-11-01

The so-called impedance eduction technology is widely used for obtaining acoustic properties of liners used in aircraft engines. The measurement uncertainties for this technology are still not well understood though it is essential for data quality assessment and model validation. A systematic framework based on multivariate analysis is presented in this paper to provide 95 percent confidence interval uncertainty estimates in the process of impedance eduction. The analysis is made using a single mode straightforward method based on transmission coefficients involving the classic Ingard-Myers boundary condition. The multivariate technique makes it possible to obtain an uncertainty analysis for the possibly correlated real and imaginary parts of the complex quantities. The results show that the errors in impedance results at low frequency mainly depend on the variability of transmission coefficients, while the mean Mach number accuracy is the most important source of error at high frequencies. The effect of Mach numbers used in the wave dispersion equation and in the Ingard-Myers boundary condition has been separated for comparison of the outcome of impedance eduction. A local Mach number based on friction velocity is suggested as a way to reduce the inconsistencies found when estimating impedance using upstream and downstream acoustic excitation.

Uncertainties in scaling factors for ab initio vibrational zero-point energies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irikura, Karl K.; Johnson, Russell D.; Kacker, Raghu N.; Kessel, Rüdiger

2009-03-01

Vibrational zero-point energies (ZPEs) determined from ab initio calculations are often scaled by empirical factors. An empirical scaling factor partially compensates for the effects arising from vibrational anharmonicity and incomplete treatment of electron correlation. These effects are not random but are systematic. We report scaling factors for 32 combinations of theory and basis set, intended for predicting ZPEs from computed harmonic frequencies. An empirical scaling factor carries uncertainty. We quantify and report, for the first time, the uncertainties associated with scaling factors for ZPE. The uncertainties are larger than generally acknowledged; the scaling factors have only two significant digits. For example, the scaling factor for B3LYP/6-31G(d) is 0.9757±0.0224 (standard uncertainty). The uncertainties in the scaling factors lead to corresponding uncertainties in predicted ZPEs. The proposed method for quantifying the uncertainties associated with scaling factors is based upon the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement, published by the International Organization for Standardization. We also present a new reference set of 60 diatomic and 15 polyatomic "experimental" ZPEs that includes estimated uncertainties.

Uncertainty Analysis in 3D Equilibrium Reconstruction

DOE PAGES

Cianciosa, Mark R.; Hanson, James D.; Maurer, David A.

2018-02-21

Reconstruction is an inverse process where a parameter space is searched to locate a set of parameters with the highest probability of describing experimental observations. Due to systematic errors and uncertainty in experimental measurements, this optimal set of parameters will contain some associated uncertainty. This uncertainty in the optimal parameters leads to uncertainty in models derived using those parameters. V3FIT is a three-dimensional (3D) equilibrium reconstruction code that propagates uncertainty from the input signals, to the reconstructed parameters, and to the final model. Here in this paper, we describe the methods used to propagate uncertainty in V3FIT. Using the resultsmore » of whole shot 3D equilibrium reconstruction of the Compact Toroidal Hybrid, this propagated uncertainty is validated against the random variation in the resulting parameters. Two different model parameterizations demonstrate how the uncertainty propagation can indicate the quality of a reconstruction. As a proxy for random sampling, the whole shot reconstruction results in a time interval that will be used to validate the propagated uncertainty from a single time slice.« less

Uncertainty Analysis in 3D Equilibrium Reconstruction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cianciosa, Mark R.; Hanson, James D.; Maurer, David A.

Reconstruction is an inverse process where a parameter space is searched to locate a set of parameters with the highest probability of describing experimental observations. Due to systematic errors and uncertainty in experimental measurements, this optimal set of parameters will contain some associated uncertainty. This uncertainty in the optimal parameters leads to uncertainty in models derived using those parameters. V3FIT is a three-dimensional (3D) equilibrium reconstruction code that propagates uncertainty from the input signals, to the reconstructed parameters, and to the final model. Here in this paper, we describe the methods used to propagate uncertainty in V3FIT. Using the resultsmore » of whole shot 3D equilibrium reconstruction of the Compact Toroidal Hybrid, this propagated uncertainty is validated against the random variation in the resulting parameters. Two different model parameterizations demonstrate how the uncertainty propagation can indicate the quality of a reconstruction. As a proxy for random sampling, the whole shot reconstruction results in a time interval that will be used to validate the propagated uncertainty from a single time slice.« less

Feasibility of constraining the curvature parameter of the symmetry energy using elliptic flow data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cozma, M. D.

2018-03-01

A QMD transport model that employs a modified momentum dependent interaction (MDI2) potential, supplemented by a phase-space coalescence model fitted to FOPI experimental multiplicities of free nucleons and light clusters is used to study the density dependence of the symmetry energy above the saturation point by a comparison with experimental elliptic flow ratios measured by the FOPI-LAND and ASYEOS Collaborations in 197Au + 197Au collisions at 400 MeV/nucleon impact energy. A previous calculation using the same model has proven that neutron-to-proton and neutron-to-charged-particles elliptic flow ratios probe on average different densities allowing in principle the extraction of both the slope L and curvature K_{sym} parameters of the symmetry energy. To make use of this result a Gogny interaction inspired potential is modified by the addition of a density dependent, momentum independent term, while enforcing a close description of the empirical nucleon optical potential, allowing independent modifications of L and Ksym. Comparing theoretical predictions with experimental data for neutron-to-proton and neutron-to-charged-particles elliptic flow ratios the following constraint is extracted: L = 85 ± 22(exp) ± 20(th) ± 12(sys) MeV and K_{sym} = 96 ± 315(exp) ± 170(th) ± 166(sys) MeV. Theoretical errors include effects due to uncertainties in the isoscalar part of the equation of state, value of the isovector neutron-proton effective mass splitting, in-medium effects on the elastic nucleon-nucleon cross-sections, Pauli blocking algorithm variants and scenario considered for the conservation of the total energy of the system. Systematical uncertainties are generated by the inability of the transport model to reproduce experimental light-cluster-to-proton multiplicity ratios. A value for L free of systematical theoretical uncertainties can be extracted from the neutron-to-proton elliptic flow ratio alone: L = 84 ± 30(exp) ± 19(th) MeV. It is demonstrated that elliptic flow ratios reach a maximum sensitivity on the K_{sym} parameter in heavy-ion collisions of about 250 MeV/nucleon impact energy, allowing a reduction of its experimental component of uncertainty to about 150 MeV.

Large Pt processes in ppbar collisions at 2 TeV: measurement of ttbar production cross section in ppbar collisions at s**(1/2) = 1.96 TeV in the dielectron final states at the D0 experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kumar, Ashish; /Delhi U.

2005-10-01

The measurement of the top-antitop pair production cross section in p{bar p} collisions at {radical}s = 1.96 TeV in the dielectron decay channel using 384 pb{sup -1} of D0 data yields a t{bar t} production cross-section of {sigma}{sub t{bar t}} = 7.9{sub -3.8}{sup +5.2}(stat){sub -1.0}{sup +1.3}(syst) {+-} 0.5 (lumi) pb. This measurement [98] is based on 5 observed events with a prediction of 1.04 background events. The cross-section corresponds to the top mass of 175 GeV, and is in good agreement with the Standard Model expectation of 6.77 {+-} 0.42 pb based on next-to-next-leading-order (NNLO) perturbative QCD calculations [78]. Thismore » analysis shows significant improvement from our previous cross-section measurement in this channel [93] with 230 pb{sup -1} dataset in terms of significantly better signal to background ratio and uncertainties on the measured cross-section. Combination of all the dilepton final states [98] yields a yields a t{bar t} cross-section of {sigma}{sub t{bar t}} = 8.6{sub -2.0}{sup +2.3}(stat){sub -1.0}{sup +1.2}(syst) {+-} 0.6(lumi) pb, which again is in good agreement with theoretical predictions and with measurements in other final states. Hence, these results show no discernible deviation from the Standard Model. Fig. 6.1 shows the summary of cross-section measurements in different final states by the D0 in Run II. This measurement of cross-section in the dilepton channels is the best dilepton result from D0 till date. Previous D0 result based on analysis of 230 pb{sup -1} of data (currently under publication in Physics Letters B) is {sigma}{sub t{bar t}} = 8.6{sub -2.7}{sup +3.2}(stat){sub -1.1}{sup +1.1}(syst) {+-} 0.6(lumi) pb. It can be seen that the present cross-section suffers from less statistical uncertainty. This result is also quite consistent with CDF collaboration's result of {sigma}{sub t{bar t}} = 8.6{sub -2.4}{sup +2.5}(stat){sub -1.1}{sup +1.1}(syst) pb. These results have been presented as D0's preliminary results in the high energy physics conferences in the Summer of 2005 (Hadron Collider Physics Symposium, European Physical Society Conference, etc.). The uncertainty on the cross-section is still dominated by statistics due to the small number of observed events. It can be seen that we are at a level where statistical uncertainties are becoming closer to the systematic ones. Future measurements of the cross section will benefit from considerably more integrated luminosity, leading to a smaller statistical error. Thus the next generation of measurements will be limited by systematic uncertainties. Monte Carlo samples with higher statistics are also being generated in order to decrease the uncertainty on the background estimation. In addition, as the jet energy scale, the electron energy scale, the detector resolutions, and the luminosity measurement are fine-tuned, the systematic uncertainties will continue to decrease.« less

A new retrieval algorithm for tropospheric temperature, humidity and pressure profiling based on GNSS radio occultation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchengast, Gottfried; Li, Ying; Scherllin-Pirscher, Barbara; Schwärz, Marc; Schwarz, Jakob; Nielsen, Johannes K.

2017-04-01

The GNSS radio occultation (RO) technique is an important remote sensing technique for obtaining thermodynamic profiles of temperature, humidity, and pressure in the Earth's troposphere. However, due to refraction effects of both dry ambient air and water vapor in the troposphere, retrieval of accurate thermodynamic profiles at these lower altitudes is challenging and requires suitable background information in addition to the RO refractivity information. Here we introduce a new moist air retrieval algorithm aiming to improve the quality and robustness of retrieving temperature, humidity and pressure profiles in moist air tropospheric conditions. The new algorithm consists of four steps: (1) use of prescribed specific humidity and its uncertainty to retrieve temperature and its associated uncertainty; (2) use of prescribed temperature and its uncertainty to retrieve specific humidity and its associated uncertainty; (3) use of the previous results to estimate final temperature and specific humidity profiles through optimal estimation; (4) determination of air pressure and density profiles from the results obtained before. The new algorithm does not require elaborated matrix inversions which are otherwise widely used in 1D-Var retrieval algorithms, and it allows a transparent uncertainty propagation, whereby the uncertainties of prescribed variables are dynamically estimated accounting for their spatial and temporal variations. Estimated random uncertainties are calculated by constructing error covariance matrices from co-located ECMWF short-range forecast and corresponding analysis profiles. Systematic uncertainties are estimated by empirical modeling. The influence of regarding or disregarding vertical error correlations is quantified. The new scheme is implemented with static input uncertainty profiles in WEGC's current OPSv5.6 processing system and with full scope in WEGC's next-generation system, the Reference Occultation Processing System (rOPS). Results from both WEGC systems, current OPSv5.6 and next-generation rOPS, are shown and discussed, based on both insights from individual profiles and statistical ensembles, and compared to moist air retrieval results from the UCAR Boulder and ROM-SAF Copenhagen centers. The results show that the new algorithmic scheme improves the temperature, humidity and pressure retrieval performance, in particular also the robustness including for integrated uncertainty estimation for large-scale applications, over the previous algorithms. The new rOPS-implemented algorithm will therefore be used in the first large-scale reprocessing towards a tropospheric climate data record 2001-2016 by the rOPS, including its integrated uncertainty propagation.

The GeV Excess Shining Through: Background Systematics for the Inner Galaxy Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Calore, Francesca; Cholis, Ilias; Weniger, Christoph

2015-02-10

Recently, a spatially extended excess of gamma rays collected by the Fermi-LAT from the inner region of the Milky Way has been detected by different groups and with increasingly sophisticated techniques. Yet, any final conclusion about the morphology and spectral properties of such an extended diffuse emission are subject to a number of potentially critical uncertainties, related to the high density of cosmic rays, gas, magnetic fields and abundance of point sources. We will present a thorough study of the systematic uncertainties related to the modelling of diffuse background and to the propagation of cosmic rays in the inner partmore » of our Galaxy. We will test a large set of models for the Galactic diffuse emission, generated by varying the propagation parameters within extreme conditions. By using those models in the fit of Fermi-LAT data as Galactic foreground, we will show that the gamma-ray excess survives and we will quantify the uncertainties on the excess emission morphology and energy spectrum.« less

Resolving the neutron lifetime puzzle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mumm, Pieter

2018-05-01

Free electrons and protons are stable, but outside atomic nuclei, free neutrons decay into a proton, electron, and antineutrino through the weak interaction, with a lifetime of ∼880 s (see the figure). The most precise measurements have stated uncertainties below 1 s (0.1%), but different techniques, although internally consistent, disagree by 4 standard deviations given the quoted uncertainties. Resolving this “neutron lifetime puzzle” has spawned much experimental effort as well as exotic theoretical mechanisms, thus far without a clear explanation. On page 627 of this issue, Pattie et al. (1) present the most precise measurement of the neutron lifetime to date. A new method of measuring trapped neutrons in situ allows a more detailed exploration of one of the more pernicious systematic effects in neutron traps, neutron phase-space evolution (the changing orbits of neutrons in the trap), than do previous methods. The precision achieved, combined with a very different set of systematic uncertainties, gives hope that experiments such as this one can help resolve the current situation with the neutron lifetime.

Systematic evaluation of an atomic clock at 2 × 10−18 total uncertainty

PubMed Central

Nicholson, T.L.; Campbell, S.L.; Hutson, R.B.; Marti, G.E.; Bloom, B.J.; McNally, R.L.; Zhang, W.; Barrett, M.D.; Safronova, M.S.; Strouse, G.F.; Tew, W.L.; Ye, J.

2015-01-01

The pursuit of better atomic clocks has advanced many research areas, providing better quantum state control, new insights in quantum science, tighter limits on fundamental constant variation and improved tests of relativity. The record for the best stability and accuracy is currently held by optical lattice clocks. Here we take an important step towards realizing the full potential of a many-particle clock with a state-of-the-art stable laser. Our 87Sr optical lattice clock now achieves fractional stability of 2.2 × 10−16 at 1 s. With this improved stability, we perform a new accuracy evaluation of our clock, reducing many systematic uncertainties that limited our previous measurements, such as those in the lattice ac Stark shift, the atoms' thermal environment and the atomic response to room-temperature blackbody radiation. Our combined measurements have reduced the total uncertainty of the JILA Sr clock to 2.1 × 10−18 in fractional frequency units. PMID:25898253

Quantifying Errors in TRMM-Based Multi-Sensor QPE Products Over Land in Preparation for GPM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Tian, Yudong

2011-01-01

Determining uncertainties in satellite-based multi-sensor quantitative precipitation estimates over land of fundamental importance to both data producers and hydro climatological applications. ,Evaluating TRMM-era products also lays the groundwork and sets the direction for algorithm and applications development for future missions including GPM. QPE uncertainties result mostly from the interplay of systematic errors and random errors. In this work, we will synthesize our recent results quantifying the error characteristics of satellite-based precipitation estimates. Both systematic errors and total uncertainties have been analyzed for six different TRMM-era precipitation products (3B42, 3B42RT, CMORPH, PERSIANN, NRL and GSMap). For systematic errors, we devised an error decomposition scheme to separate errors in precipitation estimates into three independent components, hit biases, missed precipitation and false precipitation. This decomposition scheme reveals hydroclimatologically-relevant error features and provides a better link to the error sources than conventional analysis, because in the latter these error components tend to cancel one another when aggregated or averaged in space or time. For the random errors, we calculated the measurement spread from the ensemble of these six quasi-independent products, and thus produced a global map of measurement uncertainties. The map yields a global view of the error characteristics and their regional and seasonal variations, reveals many undocumented error features over areas with no validation data available, and provides better guidance to global assimilation of satellite-based precipitation data. Insights gained from these results and how they could help with GPM will be highlighted.

Forecasting eruption size: what we know, what we don't know

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papale, Paolo

2017-04-01

Any eruption forecast includes an evaluation of the expected size of the forthcoming eruption, usually expressed as the probability associated to given size classes. Such evaluation is mostly based on the previous volcanic history at the specific volcano, or it is referred to a broader class of volcanoes constituting "analogues" of the one under specific consideration. In any case, use of knowledge from past eruptions implies considering the completeness of the reference catalogue, and most importantly, the existence of systematic biases in the catalogue, that may affect probability estimates and translate into biased volcanic hazard forecasts. An analysis of existing catalogues, with major reference to the catalogue from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, suggests that systematic biases largely dominate at global, regional and local scale: volcanic histories reconstructed at individual volcanoes, often used as a reference for volcanic hazard forecasts, are the result of systematic loss of information with time and poor sample representativeness. That situation strictly requires the use of techniques to complete existing catalogues, as well as careful consideration of the uncertainties deriving from inadequate knowledge and model-dependent data elaboration. A reconstructed global eruption size distribution, obtained by merging information from different existing catalogues, shows a mode in the VEI 1-2 range, <0.1% incidence of eruptions with VEI 7 or larger, and substantial uncertainties associated with individual VEI frequencies. Even larger uncertainties are expected to derive from application to individual volcanoes or classes of analogue volcanoes, suggesting large to very large uncertainties associated to volcanic hazard forecasts virtually at any individual volcano worldwide.

Efficiently estimating salmon escapement uncertainty using systematically sampled data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Joel H.; Woody, Carol Ann; Gove, Nancy E.; Fair, Lowell F.

2007-01-01

Fish escapement is generally monitored using nonreplicated systematic sampling designs (e.g., via visual counts from towers or hydroacoustic counts). These sampling designs support a variety of methods for estimating the variance of the total escapement. Unfortunately, all the methods give biased results, with the magnitude of the bias being determined by the underlying process patterns. Fish escapement commonly exhibits positive autocorrelation and nonlinear patterns, such as diurnal and seasonal patterns. For these patterns, poor choice of variance estimator can needlessly increase the uncertainty managers have to deal with in sustaining fish populations. We illustrate the effect of sampling design and variance estimator choice on variance estimates of total escapement for anadromous salmonids from systematic samples of fish passage. Using simulated tower counts of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka escapement on the Kvichak River, Alaska, five variance estimators for nonreplicated systematic samples were compared to determine the least biased. Using the least biased variance estimator, four confidence interval estimators were compared for expected coverage and mean interval width. Finally, five systematic sampling designs were compared to determine the design giving the smallest average variance estimate for total annual escapement. For nonreplicated systematic samples of fish escapement, all variance estimators were positively biased. Compared to the other estimators, the least biased estimator reduced bias by, on average, from 12% to 98%. All confidence intervals gave effectively identical results. Replicated systematic sampling designs consistently provided the smallest average estimated variance among those compared.

Accounting for Parameter Uncertainty in Complex Atmospheric Models, With an Application to Greenhouse Gas Emissions Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swallow, B.; Rigby, M. L.; Rougier, J.; Manning, A.; Thomson, D.; Webster, H. N.; Lunt, M. F.; O'Doherty, S.

2016-12-01

In order to understand underlying processes governing environmental and physical phenomena, a complex mathematical model is usually required. However, there is an inherent uncertainty related to the parameterisation of unresolved processes in these simulators. Here, we focus on the specific problem of accounting for uncertainty in parameter values in an atmospheric chemical transport model. Systematic errors introduced by failing to account for these uncertainties have the potential to have a large effect on resulting estimates in unknown quantities of interest. One approach that is being increasingly used to address this issue is known as emulation, in which a large number of forward runs of the simulator are carried out, in order to approximate the response of the output to changes in parameters. However, due to the complexity of some models, it is often unfeasible to run large numbers of training runs that is usually required for full statistical emulators of the environmental processes. We therefore present a simplified model reduction method for approximating uncertainties in complex environmental simulators without the need for very large numbers of training runs. We illustrate the method through an application to the Met Office's atmospheric transport model NAME. We show how our parameter estimation framework can be incorporated into a hierarchical Bayesian inversion, and demonstrate the impact on estimates of UK methane emissions, using atmospheric mole fraction data. We conclude that accounting for uncertainties in the parameterisation of complex atmospheric models is vital if systematic errors are to be minimized and all relevant uncertainties accounted for. We also note that investigations of this nature can prove extremely useful in highlighting deficiencies in the simulator that might otherwise be missed.

Multi-criteria decision-making for flood risk management: a survey of the current state of the art

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madruga de Brito, Mariana; Evers, Mariele

2016-04-01

This paper provides a review of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) applications to flood risk management, seeking to highlight trends and identify research gaps. A total of 128 peer-reviewed papers published from 1995 to June 2015 were systematically analysed. Results showed that the number of flood MCDM publications has exponentially grown during this period, with over 82 % of all papers published since 2009. A wide range of applications were identified, with most papers focusing on ranking alternatives for flood mitigation, followed by risk, hazard, and vulnerability assessment. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was the most popular method, followed by Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and Simple Additive Weighting (SAW). Although there is greater interest in MCDM, uncertainty analysis remains an issue and was seldom applied in flood-related studies. In addition, participation of multiple stakeholders has been generally fragmented, focusing on particular stages of the decision-making process, especially on the definition of criteria weights. Therefore, addressing the uncertainties around stakeholders' judgments and endorsing an active participation in all steps of the decision-making process should be explored in future applications. This could help to increase the quality of decisions and the implementation of chosen measures.

Multivariate Probabilistic Analysis of an Hydrological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franceschini, Samuela; Marani, Marco

2010-05-01

Model predictions derived based on rainfall measurements and hydrological model results are often limited by the systematic error of measuring instruments, by the intrinsic variability of the natural processes and by the uncertainty of the mathematical representation. We propose a means to identify such sources of uncertainty and to quantify their effects based on point-estimate approaches, as a valid alternative to cumbersome Montecarlo methods. We present uncertainty analyses on the hydrologic response to selected meteorological events, in the mountain streamflow-generating portion of the Brenta basin at Bassano del Grappa, Italy. The Brenta river catchment has a relatively uniform morphology and quite a heterogeneous rainfall-pattern. In the present work, we evaluate two sources of uncertainty: data uncertainty (the uncertainty due to data handling and analysis) and model uncertainty (the uncertainty related to the formulation of the model). We thus evaluate the effects of the measurement error of tipping-bucket rain gauges, the uncertainty in estimating spatially-distributed rainfall through block kriging, and the uncertainty associated with estimated model parameters. To this end, we coupled a deterministic model based on the geomorphological theory of the hydrologic response to probabilistic methods. In particular we compare the results of Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS) to the results obtained, in the same conditions, using Li's Point Estimate Method (LiM). The LiM is a probabilistic technique that approximates the continuous probability distribution function of the considered stochastic variables by means of discrete points and associated weights. This allows to satisfactorily reproduce results with only few evaluations of the model function. The comparison between the LiM and MCS results highlights the pros and cons of using an approximating method. LiM is less computationally demanding than MCS, but has limited applicability especially when the model response is highly nonlinear. Higher-order approximations can provide more accurate estimations, but reduce the numerical advantage of the LiM. The results of the uncertainty analysis identify the main sources of uncertainty in the computation of river discharge. In this particular case the spatial variability of rainfall and the model parameters uncertainty are shown to have the greatest impact on discharge evaluation. This, in turn, highlights the need to support any estimated hydrological response with probability information and risk analysis results in order to provide a robust, systematic framework for decision making.

Error and Uncertainty Quantification in the Numerical Simulation of Complex Fluid Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barth, Timothy J.

2010-01-01

The failure of numerical simulation to predict physical reality is often a direct consequence of the compounding effects of numerical error arising from finite-dimensional approximation and physical model uncertainty resulting from inexact knowledge and/or statistical representation. In this topical lecture, we briefly review systematic theories for quantifying numerical errors and restricted forms of model uncertainty occurring in simulations of fluid flow. A goal of this lecture is to elucidate both positive and negative aspects of applying these theories to practical fluid flow problems. Finite-element and finite-volume calculations of subsonic and hypersonic fluid flow are presented to contrast the differing roles of numerical error and model uncertainty. for these problems.

The deuteron-radius puzzle is alive: A new analysis of nuclear structure uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, O. J.; Ekström, A.; Nevo Dinur, N.; Ji, C.; Bacca, S.; Barnea, N.

2018-03-01

To shed light on the deuteron radius puzzle we analyze the theoretical uncertainties of the nuclear structure corrections to the Lamb shift in muonic deuterium. We find that the discrepancy between the calculated two-photon exchange correction and the corresponding experimentally inferred value by Pohl et al. [1] remain. The present result is consistent with our previous estimate, although the discrepancy is reduced from 2.6 σ to about 2 σ. The error analysis includes statistic as well as systematic uncertainties stemming from the use of nucleon-nucleon interactions derived from chiral effective field theory at various orders. We therefore conclude that nuclear theory uncertainty is more likely not the source of the discrepancy.

Observation of the rare decay B{sup +}{yields}K{sup +}{pi}{sup 0}{pi}{sup 0} and measurement of the quasi-two-body contributions B{sup +}{yields}K*(892){sup +}{pi}{sup 0}, B{sup +}{yields}f{sub 0}(980)K{sup +}, and B{sup +}{yields}{chi}{sub c0}K{sup +}

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lees, J. P.; Poireau, V.; Tisserand, V.

We report an analysis of charmless hadronic decays of charged B mesons to the final state K{sup +}{pi}{sup 0}{pi}{sup 0}, using a data sample of (470.9{+-}2.8)x10{sup 6} BB events collected with the BABAR detector at the {Upsilon}(4S) resonance. We observe an excess of signal events, with a significance above 10 standard deviations including systematic uncertainties, and measure the branching fraction and CP asymmetry to be B(B{sup +}{yields}K{sup +}{pi}{sup 0}{pi}{sup 0})=(16.2{+-}1.2{+-}1.5)x10{sup -6} and A{sub CP}(B{sup +}{yields}K{sup +}{pi}{sup 0}{pi}{sup 0})=-0.06{+-}0.06{+-}0.04, where the uncertainties are statistical and systematic, respectively. Additionally, we study the contributions of the B{sup +}{yields}K{sup *}(892){sup +}{pi}{sup 0}, B{sup +}{yields}f{submore » 0}(980)K{sup +}, and B{sup +}{yields}{chi}{sub c0}K{sup +} quasi-two-body decays. We report the world's best measurements of the branching fraction and CP asymmetry of the B{sup +}{yields}K{sup +}{pi}{sup 0}{pi}{sup 0} and B{sup +}{yields}K{sup *}(892){sup +}{pi}{sup 0} channels.« less

A SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS OF CAUSTIC METHODS FOR GALAXY CLUSTER MASSES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gifford, Daniel; Miller, Christopher; Kern, Nicholas

We quantify the expected observed statistical and systematic uncertainties of the escape velocity as a measure of the gravitational potential and total mass of galaxy clusters. We focus our attention on low redshift (z {<=}0.15) clusters, where large and deep spectroscopic datasets currently exist. Utilizing a suite of Millennium Simulation semi-analytic galaxy catalogs, we find that the dynamical mass, as traced by either the virial relation or the escape velocity, is robust to variations in how dynamical friction is applied to ''orphan'' galaxies in the mock catalogs (i.e., those galaxies whose dark matter halos have fallen below the resolution limit).more » We find that the caustic technique recovers the known halo masses (M{sub 200}) with a third less scatter compared to the virial masses. The bias we measure increases quickly as the number of galaxies used decreases. For N{sub gal} > 25, the scatter in the escape velocity mass is dominated by projections along the line-of-sight. Algorithmic uncertainties from the determination of the projected escape velocity profile are negligible. We quantify how target selection based on magnitude, color, and projected radial separation can induce small additional biases into the escape velocity masses. Using N{sub gal} = 150 (25), the caustic technique has a per cluster scatter in ln (M|M{sub 200}) of 0.3 (0.5) and bias 1% {+-} 3{r_brace} (16% {+-} 5{r_brace}) for clusters with masses >10{sup 14} M{sub Sun} at z < 0.15.« less

Quantifying lost information due to covariance matrix estimation in parameter inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sellentin, Elena; Heavens, Alan F.

2017-02-01

Parameter inference with an estimated covariance matrix systematically loses information due to the remaining uncertainty of the covariance matrix. Here, we quantify this loss of precision and develop a framework to hypothetically restore it, which allows to judge how far away a given analysis is from the ideal case of a known covariance matrix. We point out that it is insufficient to estimate this loss by debiasing the Fisher matrix as previously done, due to a fundamental inequality that describes how biases arise in non-linear functions. We therefore develop direct estimators for parameter credibility contours and the figure of merit, finding that significantly fewer simulations than previously thought are sufficient to reach satisfactory precisions. We apply our results to DES Science Verification weak lensing data, detecting a 10 per cent loss of information that increases their credibility contours. No significant loss of information is found for KiDS. For a Euclid-like survey, with about 10 nuisance parameters we find that 2900 simulations are sufficient to limit the systematically lost information to 1 per cent, with an additional uncertainty of about 2 per cent. Without any nuisance parameters, 1900 simulations are sufficient to only lose 1 per cent of information. We further derive estimators for all quantities needed for forecasting with estimated covariance matrices. Our formalism allows to determine the sweetspot between running sophisticated simulations to reduce the number of nuisance parameters, and running as many fast simulations as possible.

Uncertainties and Systematic Effects on the estimate of stellar masses in high z galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salimbeni, S.; Fontana, A.; Giallongo, E.; Grazian, A.; Menci, N.; Pentericci, L.; Santini, P.

2009-05-01

We discuss the uncertainties and the systematic effects that exist in the estimates of the stellar masses of high redshift galaxies, using broad band photometry, and how they affect the deduced galaxy stellar mass function. We use at this purpose the latest version of the GOODS-MUSIC catalog. In particular, we discuss the impact of different synthetic models, of the assumed initial mass function and of the selection band. Using Chariot & Bruzual 2007 and Maraston 2005 models we find masses lower than those obtained from Bruzual & Chariot 2003 models. In addition, we find a slight trend as a function of the mass itself comparing these two mass determinations with that from Bruzual & Chariot 2003 models. As consequence, the derived galaxy stellar mass functions show diverse shapes, and their slope depends on the assumed models. Despite these differences, the overall results and scenario is observed in all these cases. The masses obtained with the assumption of the Chabrier initial mass function are in average 0.24 dex lower than those from the Salpeter assumption, at all redshifts, causing a shift of galaxy stellar mass function of the same amount. Finally, using a 4.5 μm-selected sample instead of a Ks-selected one, we add a new population of highly absorbed, dusty galaxies at z~=2-3 of relatively low masses, yielding stronger constraints on the slope of the galaxy stellar mass function at lower masses.

Onward through the Fog: Uncertainty and Management Adaptation in Systems Analysis and Design

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-07-01

has fallen into stereotyped problem formulations and analytical ap- proaches. In particular, treatments of uncertainty are typically quite incomplete...and often conceptually wrong. This report argues that these shortcomings produce pervasive systematic biases in analyses. Problem formulations ...capability were lost. The expected number of aircraft that would not be fully mission capable thirty days later was roughly twice the num - ber

Lidar backscattering measurements of background stratospheric aerosols

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remsberg, E. E.; Northam, G. B.; Butler, C. F.

1979-01-01

A comparative lidar-dustsonde experiment was conducted in San Angelo, Texas, in May 1974 in order to estimate the uncertainties in stratospheric-aerosol backscatter for the NASA Langley 48-inch lidar system. The lidar calibration and data-analysis procedures are discussed. Results from the Texas experiment indicate random and systematic uncertainties of 35 and 63 percent, respectively, in backscatter from a background stratospheric-aerosol layer at 20 km.

The propagation of wind errors through ocean wave hindcasts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holthuijsen, L.H.; Booij, N.; Bertotti, L.

1996-08-01

To estimate uncertainties in wave forecast and hindcasts, computations have been carried out for a location in the Mediterranean Sea using three different analyses of one historic wind field. These computations involve a systematic sensitivity analysis and estimated wind field errors. This technique enables a wave modeler to estimate such uncertainties in other forecasts and hindcasts if only one wind analysis is available.

Drought Persistence in Models and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Heewon; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia

2017-04-01

Many regions of the world have experienced drought events that persisted several years and caused substantial economic and ecological impacts in the 20th century. However, it remains unclear whether there are significant trends in the frequency or severity of these prolonged drought events. In particular, an important issue is linked to systematic biases in the representation of persistent drought events in climate models, which impedes analysis related to the detection and attribution of drought trends. This study assesses drought persistence errors in global climate model (GCM) simulations from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), in the period of 1901-2010. The model simulations are compared with five gridded observational data products. The analysis focuses on two aspects: the identification of systematic biases in the models and the partitioning of the spread of drought-persistence-error into four possible sources of uncertainty: model uncertainty, observation uncertainty, internal climate variability and the estimation error of drought persistence. We use monthly and yearly dry-to-dry transition probabilities as estimates for drought persistence with drought conditions defined as negative precipitation anomalies. For both time scales we find that most model simulations consistently underestimated drought persistence except in a few regions such as India and Eastern South America. Partitioning the spread of the drought-persistence-error shows that at the monthly time scale model uncertainty and observation uncertainty are dominant, while the contribution from internal variability does play a minor role in most cases. At the yearly scale, the spread of the drought-persistence-error is dominated by the estimation error, indicating that the partitioning is not statistically significant, due to a limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current climate models and highlight the main contributors of uncertainty of drought-persistence-error. Future analyses will focus on investigating the temporal propagation of drought persistence to better understand the causes for the identified errors in the representation of drought persistence in state-of-the-art climate models.

How Well Can We Assess Atmospheric Ozone Changes? The OzoneSonde Data Quality Assessment (O3S-DQA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarasick, D. W.; Smit, H. G. J.; Thompson, A. M.; Morris, G. A.; Witte, J. C.; Davies, J.

2017-12-01

Ozonesondes are the backbone of the global ozone observing network, making inexpensive, accurate measurements of ozone from the ground to 30km, with high vertical resolution ( 100 m), for more than 50 years. The data are used extensively for validation of satellite data products, and are also part of merged satellite data sets and climatologies that are used for trend analyses and as a priori data for satellite retrievals. The importance of ECC sondes for trend analyses and as a stable reference for satellite validation recommends research effort to better quantify uncertainties in ECC data and to understand changes therein. Comparison with UV-absorption measurements in a number of studies (e.g. JOSIE, BESOS) has shown that small changes in sensor type, preparation or sensing solution can introduce significant inhomogenities in long-term sounding records. The major goal of the O3S-DQA is the homogenization of ozonesonde data sets. Essential aspects of this are the detailed estimation of uncertainties and documentation of the reprocessing. Corrections to historical data for known issues may reduce biases but introduce additional uncertainties. We take a systematic approach to quantifying these uncertainties by considering the physical and chemical processes involved, and attempt to place our estimates on a firm theoretical or empirical footing. We discuss stoichiometry, sensing solutions, background current, humidity and temperature corrections to pump flow rate, altitude-dependent pump flow corrections, variations in radiosonde pressure offsets, and normalization of sonde total ozone to spectrophotometric measurements. In the past 20 years ozonesonde precision has improved by a factor of 2, primarily through the adoption of strict standard operating procedures. We identify remaining quality assurance issues that can be better evaluated with further research. We present a "roadmap" for achieving a goal of better than 5% overall uncertainty throughout the global ozonesonde network. Finally, we note that the global network is very uneven. Additional sites would be of global benefit. Objective methods of quantifying spatial representativeness can optimize future network design. International cooperation and data sharing will continue to be of immense importance.

Parameterization of Model Validating Sets for Uncertainty Bound Optimizations. Revised

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, K. B.; Giesy, D. P.

2000-01-01

Given measurement data, a nominal model and a linear fractional transformation uncertainty structure with an allowance on unknown but bounded exogenous disturbances, easily computable tests for the existence of a model validating uncertainty set are given. Under mild conditions, these tests are necessary and sufficient for the case of complex, nonrepeated, block-diagonal structure. For the more general case which includes repeated and/or real scalar uncertainties, the tests are only necessary but become sufficient if a collinearity condition is also satisfied. With the satisfaction of these tests, it is shown that a parameterization of all model validating sets of plant models is possible. The new parameterization is used as a basis for a systematic way to construct or perform uncertainty tradeoff with model validating uncertainty sets which have specific linear fractional transformation structure for use in robust control design and analysis. An illustrative example which includes a comparison of candidate model validating sets is given.

Improving the Calibration of the SN Ia Anchor Datasets with a Bayesian Hierarchal Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Currie, Miles; Rubin, David

2018-01-01

Inter-survey calibration remains one of the largest systematic uncertainties in SN Ia cosmology today. Ideally, each survey would measure their system throughputs and observe well characterized spectrophotometric standard stars, but many important surveys have not done so. For these surveys, we calibrate using tertiary survey stars tied to SDSS and Pan-STARRS. We improve on previous efforts by taking the spatially variable response of each telescope/camera into account, and using improved color transformations in the surveys’ natural instrumental photometric system. We use a global hierarchical model of the data, automatically providing a covariance matrix of magnitude offsets and bandpass shifts which reduces the systematic uncertainty in inter-survey calibration, thereby providing better cosmological constraints.

Systematic uncertainties in the Monte Carlo calculation of ion chamber replacement correction factors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, L. L. W.; La Russa, D. J.; Rogers, D. W. O.

In a previous study [Med. Phys. 35, 1747-1755 (2008)], the authors proposed two direct methods of calculating the replacement correction factors (P{sub repl} or p{sub cav}p{sub dis}) for ion chambers by Monte Carlo calculation. By ''direct'' we meant the stopping-power ratio evaluation is not necessary. The two methods were named as the high-density air (HDA) and low-density water (LDW) methods. Although the accuracy of these methods was briefly discussed, it turns out that the assumption made regarding the dose in an HDA slab as a function of slab thickness is not correct. This issue is reinvestigated in the current study,more » and the accuracy of the LDW method applied to ion chambers in a {sup 60}Co photon beam is also studied. It is found that the two direct methods are in fact not completely independent of the stopping-power ratio of the two materials involved. There is an implicit dependence of the calculated P{sub repl} values upon the stopping-power ratio evaluation through the choice of an appropriate energy cutoff {Delta}, which characterizes a cavity size in the Spencer-Attix cavity theory. Since the {Delta} value is not accurately defined in the theory, this dependence on the stopping-power ratio results in a systematic uncertainty on the calculated P{sub repl} values. For phantom materials of similar effective atomic number to air, such as water and graphite, this systematic uncertainty is at most 0.2% for most commonly used chambers for either electron or photon beams. This uncertainty level is good enough for current ion chamber dosimetry, and the merits of the two direct methods of calculating P{sub repl} values are maintained, i.e., there is no need to do a separate stopping-power ratio calculation. For high-Z materials, the inherent uncertainty would make it practically impossible to calculate reliable P{sub repl} values using the two direct methods.« less

Constituent quarks and systematic errors in mid-rapidity charged multiplicity dNch/dη distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tannenbaum, M. J.

2018-01-01

Centrality definition in A + A collisions at colliders such as RHIC and LHC suffers from a correlated systematic uncertainty caused by the efficiency of detecting a p + p collision (50 ± 5% for PHENIX at RHIC). In A + A collisions where centrality is measured by the number of nucleon collisions, Ncoll, or the number of nucleon participants, Npart, or the number of constituent quark participants, Nqp, the error in the efficiency of the primary interaction trigger (Beam-Beam Counters) for a p + p collision leads to a correlated systematic uncertainty in Npart, Ncoll or Nqp which reduces binomially as the A + A collisions become more central. If this is not correctly accounted for in projections of A + A to p + p collisions, then mistaken conclusions can result. A recent example is presented in whether the mid-rapidity charged multiplicity per constituent quark participant (dNch/dη)/Nqp in Au + Au at RHIC was the same as the value in p + p collisions.

Uncertainties in the estimation of specific absorption rate during radiofrequency alternating magnetic field induced non-adiabatic heating of ferrofluids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahiri, B. B.; Ranoo, Surojit; Philip, John

2017-11-01

Magnetic fluid hyperthermia (MFH) is becoming a viable cancer treatment methodology where the alternating magnetic field induced heating of magnetic fluid is utilized for ablating the cancerous cells or making them more susceptible to the conventional treatments. The heating efficiency in MFH is quantified in terms of specific absorption rate (SAR), which is defined as the heating power generated per unit mass. In majority of the experimental studies, SAR is evaluated from the temperature rise curves, obtained under non-adiabatic experimental conditions, which is prone to various thermodynamic uncertainties. A proper understanding of the experimental uncertainties and its remedies is a prerequisite for obtaining accurate and reproducible SAR. Here, we study the thermodynamic uncertainties associated with peripheral heating, delayed heating, heat loss from the sample and spatial variation in the temperature profile within the sample. Using first order approximations, an adiabatic reconstruction protocol for the measured temperature rise curves is developed for SAR estimation, which is found to be in good agreement with those obtained from the computationally intense slope corrected method. Our experimental findings clearly show that the peripheral and delayed heating are due to radiation heat transfer from the heating coils and slower response time of the sensor, respectively. Our results suggest that the peripheral heating is linearly proportional to the sample area to volume ratio and coil temperature. It is also observed that peripheral heating decreases in presence of a non-magnetic insulating shielding. The delayed heating is found to contribute up to ~25% uncertainties in SAR values. As the SAR values are very sensitive to the initial slope determination method, explicit mention of the range of linear regression analysis is appropriate to reproduce the results. The effect of sample volume to area ratio on linear heat loss rate is systematically studied and the results are compared using a lumped system thermal model. The various uncertainties involved in SAR estimation are categorized as material uncertainties, thermodynamic uncertainties and parametric uncertainties. The adiabatic reconstruction is found to decrease the uncertainties in SAR measurement by approximately three times. Additionally, a set of experimental guidelines for accurate SAR estimation using adiabatic reconstruction protocol is also recommended. These results warrant a universal experimental and data analysis protocol for SAR measurements during field induced heating of magnetic fluids under non-adiabatic conditions.

Ensembles vs. information theory: supporting science under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nearing, Grey S.; Gupta, Hoshin V.

2018-05-01

Multi-model ensembles are one of the most common ways to deal with epistemic uncertainty in hydrology. This is a problem because there is no known way to sample models such that the resulting ensemble admits a measure that has any systematic (i.e., asymptotic, bounded, or consistent) relationship with uncertainty. Multi-model ensembles are effectively sensitivity analyses and cannot - even partially - quantify uncertainty. One consequence of this is that multi-model approaches cannot support a consistent scientific method - in particular, multi-model approaches yield unbounded errors in inference. In contrast, information theory supports a coherent hypothesis test that is robust to (i.e., bounded under) arbitrary epistemic uncertainty. This paper may be understood as advocating a procedure for hypothesis testing that does not require quantifying uncertainty, but is coherent and reliable (i.e., bounded) in the presence of arbitrary (unknown and unknowable) uncertainty. We conclude by offering some suggestions about how this proposed philosophy of science suggests new ways to conceptualize and construct simulation models of complex, dynamical systems.

Particle Therapy for Non-Small Cell Lung Tumors: Where Do We Stand? A Systematic Review of the Literature

PubMed Central

Wink, Krista C. J.; Roelofs, Erik; Solberg, Timothy; Lin, Liyong; Simone, Charles B.; Jakobi, Annika; Richter, Christian; Lambin, Philippe; Troost, Esther G. C.

2014-01-01

This review article provides a systematic overview of the currently available evidence on the clinical effectiveness of particle therapy for the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer and summarizes findings of in silico comparative planning studies. Furthermore, technical issues and dosimetric uncertainties with respect to thoracic particle therapy are discussed. PMID:25401087

Weak lensing measurement of the mass–richness relation of SDSS redMaPPer clusters

DOE PAGES

Simet, Melanie; McClintock, Tom; Mandelbaum, Rachel; ...

2016-12-15

Here, we perform a measurement of the mass–richness relation of the redMaPPer galaxy cluster catalogue using weak lensing data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We carefully characterized a broad range of systematic uncertainties, including shear calibration errors, photo-zz biases, dilution by member galaxies, source obscuration, magnification bias, incorrect assumptions about cluster mass profiles, cluster centering, halo triaxiality, and projection effects. We then compare measurements of the lensing signal from two independently-produced shear and photometric redshift catalogues to characterize systematic errors in the lensing signal itself. Using a sample of 5,570 clusters from 0.1 ≤ zz ≤ 0.33, the normalization of our power-law mass vs. λ relation is log 10[M 200m/h -1 M ⊙] = 14.344 ± 0.021 (statistical) ±0.023 (systematic) at a richness λ = 40, a 7 per cent calibration uncertainty, with a power-law index of 1.33+0.09-0.101.33more » $$+0.09\\atop{-0.10}$$ (1σ). Finally, the detailed systematics characterization in this work renders it the definitive weak lensing mass calibration for SDSS redMaPPer clusters at this time.« less

Unveiling the decoherence effect of noise on the entropic uncertainty relation and its control by partially collapsed operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Min-Nan; Sun, Wen-Yang; Huang, Ai-Jun; Ming, Fei; Wang, Dong; Ye, Liu

2018-01-01

In this work, we investigate the dynamics of quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relations under open systems, and how to steer the uncertainty under different types of decoherence. Specifically, we develop the dynamical behaviors of the uncertainty of interest under two typical categories of noise; bit flipping and depolarizing channels. It has been shown that the measurement uncertainty firstly increases and then decreases with the growth of the decoherence strength in bit flipping channels. In contrast, the uncertainty monotonically increases with the increase of the decoherence strength in depolarizing channels. Notably, and to a large degree, it is shown that the uncertainty depends on both the systematic quantum correlation and the minimal conditional entropy of the observed subsystem. Moreover, we present a possible physical interpretation for these distinctive behaviors of the uncertainty within such scenarios. Furthermore, we propose a simple and effective strategy to reduce the entropic uncertainty by means of a partially collapsed operation—quantum weak measurement. Therefore, our investigations might offer an insight into the dynamics of the measurment uncertainty under decoherence, and be of importance to quantum precision measurement in open systems.

Eddy-covariance data with low signal-to-noise ratio: time-lag determination, uncertainties and limit of detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langford, B.; Acton, W.; Ammann, C.; Valach, A.; Nemitz, E.

2015-10-01

All eddy-covariance flux measurements are associated with random uncertainties which are a combination of sampling error due to natural variability in turbulence and sensor noise. The former is the principal error for systems where the signal-to-noise ratio of the analyser is high, as is usually the case when measuring fluxes of heat, CO2 or H2O. Where signal is limited, which is often the case for measurements of other trace gases and aerosols, instrument uncertainties dominate. Here, we are applying a consistent approach based on auto- and cross-covariance functions to quantify the total random flux error and the random error due to instrument noise separately. As with previous approaches, the random error quantification assumes that the time lag between wind and concentration measurement is known. However, if combined with commonly used automated methods that identify the individual time lag by looking for the maximum in the cross-covariance function of the two entities, analyser noise additionally leads to a systematic bias in the fluxes. Combining data sets from several analysers and using simulations, we show that the method of time-lag determination becomes increasingly important as the magnitude of the instrument error approaches that of the sampling error. The flux bias can be particularly significant for disjunct data, whereas using a prescribed time lag eliminates these effects (provided the time lag does not fluctuate unduly over time). We also demonstrate that when sampling at higher elevations, where low frequency turbulence dominates and covariance peaks are broader, both the probability and magnitude of bias are magnified. We show that the statistical significance of noisy flux data can be increased (limit of detection can be decreased) by appropriate averaging of individual fluxes, but only if systematic biases are avoided by using a prescribed time lag. Finally, we make recommendations for the analysis and reporting of data with low signal-to-noise and their associated errors.

Eddy-covariance data with low signal-to-noise ratio: time-lag determination, uncertainties and limit of detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langford, B.; Acton, W.; Ammann, C.; Valach, A.; Nemitz, E.

2015-03-01

All eddy-covariance flux measurements are associated with random uncertainties which are a combination of sampling error due to natural variability in turbulence and sensor noise. The former is the principal error for systems where the signal-to-noise ratio of the analyser is high, as is usually the case when measuring fluxes of heat, CO2 or H2O. Where signal is limited, which is often the case for measurements of other trace gases and aerosols, instrument uncertainties dominate. We are here applying a consistent approach based on auto- and cross-covariance functions to quantifying the total random flux error and the random error due to instrument noise separately. As with previous approaches, the random error quantification assumes that the time-lag between wind and concentration measurement is known. However, if combined with commonly used automated methods that identify the individual time-lag by looking for the maximum in the cross-covariance function of the two entities, analyser noise additionally leads to a systematic bias in the fluxes. Combining datasets from several analysers and using simulations we show that the method of time-lag determination becomes increasingly important as the magnitude of the instrument error approaches that of the sampling error. The flux bias can be particularly significant for disjunct data, whereas using a prescribed time-lag eliminates these effects (provided the time-lag does not fluctuate unduly over time). We also demonstrate that when sampling at higher elevations, where low frequency turbulence dominates and covariance peaks are broader, both the probability and magnitude of bias are magnified. We show that the statistical significance of noisy flux data can be increased (limit of detection can be decreased) by appropriate averaging of individual fluxes, but only if systematic biases are avoided by using a prescribed time-lag. Finally, we make recommendations for the analysis and reporting of data with low signal-to-noise and their associated errors.

A Systematic Review of the State of Economic Evaluation for Health Care in India.

PubMed

Prinja, Shankar; Chauhan, Akashdeep Singh; Angell, Blake; Gupta, Indrani; Jan, Stephen

2015-12-01

Economic evaluations are one of the important tools in policy making for rational allocation of resources. Given the very low public investment in the health sector in India, it is critical that resources are used wisely on interventions proven to yield best results. Hence, we undertook this study to assess the extent and quality of evidence for economic evaluation of health-care interventions and programmes in India. A comprehensive search was conducted to search for published full economic evaluations pertaining to India and addressing a health-related intervention or programme. PubMed, Scopus, Embase, ScienceDirect, and York CRD database and websites of important research agencies were identified to search for economic evaluations published from January 1980 to the middle of November 2014. Two researchers independently assessed the quality of the studies based on Drummond and modelling checklist. Out of a total of 5013 articles enlisted after literature search, a total of 104 met the inclusion criteria for this systematic review. The majority of these papers were cost-effectiveness studies (64%), led by a clinician or public-health professional (77%), using decision analysis-based methods (59%), published in an international journal (80%) and addressing communicable diseases (58%). In addition, 42% were funded by an international funding agency or UN/bilateral aid agency, and 30% focussed on pharmaceuticals. The average quality score of these full economic evaluations was 65.1%. The major limitation was the inability to address uncertainties involved in modelling as only about one-third of the studies assessed modelling structural uncertainties (33%), or ran sub-group analyses to account for heterogeneity (36.5%) or analysed methodological uncertainty (32%). The existing literature on economic evaluations in India is inadequate to feed into sound policy making. There is an urgent need to generate awareness within the government of how economic evaluation can inform and benefit policy making, and at the same time build capacity of health-care professionals in understanding the economic principles of health-care delivery system.

Model-data integration to improve the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forkel, Matthias; Thonicke, Kirsten; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Thurner, Martin; von Bloh, Werner; Dorigo, Wouter; Carvalhais, Nuno

2017-04-01

Dynamic global vegetation models show large uncertainties regarding the development of the land carbon balance under future climate change conditions. This uncertainty is partly caused by differences in how vegetation carbon turnover is represented in global vegetation models. Model-data integration approaches might help to systematically assess and improve model performances and thus to potentially reduce the uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses under future climate change. Here we present several applications of model-data integration with the LPJmL (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Lands) dynamic global vegetation model to systematically improve the representation of processes or to estimate model parameters. In a first application, we used global satellite-derived datasets of FAPAR (fraction of absorbed photosynthetic activity), albedo and gross primary production to estimate phenology- and productivity-related model parameters using a genetic optimization algorithm. Thereby we identified major limitations of the phenology module and implemented an alternative empirical phenology model. The new phenology module and optimized model parameters resulted in a better performance of LPJmL in representing global spatial patterns of biomass, tree cover, and the temporal dynamic of atmospheric CO2. Therefore, we used in a second application additionally global datasets of biomass and land cover to estimate model parameters that control vegetation establishment and mortality. The results demonstrate the ability to improve simulations of vegetation dynamics but also highlight the need to improve the representation of mortality processes in dynamic global vegetation models. In a third application, we used multiple site-level observations of ecosystem carbon and water exchange, biomass and soil organic carbon to jointly estimate various model parameters that control ecosystem dynamics. This exercise demonstrates the strong role of individual data streams on the simulated ecosystem dynamics which consequently changed the development of ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes under future climate and CO2 change. In summary, our results demonstrate challenges and the potential of using model-data integration approaches to improve a dynamic global vegetation model.

Quantitative comparison of two independent lateral force calibration techniques for the atomic force microscope.

PubMed

Barkley, Sarice S; Deng, Zhao; Gates, Richard S; Reitsma, Mark G; Cannara, Rachel J

2012-02-01

Two independent lateral-force calibration methods for the atomic force microscope (AFM)--the hammerhead (HH) technique and the diamagnetic lateral force calibrator (D-LFC)--are systematically compared and found to agree to within 5 % or less, but with precision limited to about 15 %, using four different tee-shaped HH reference probes. The limitations of each method, both of which offer independent yet feasible paths toward traceable accuracy, are discussed and investigated. We find that stiff cantilevers may produce inconsistent D-LFC values through the application of excessively high normal loads. In addition, D-LFC results vary when the method is implemented using different modes of AFM feedback control, constant height and constant force modes, where the latter is more consistent with the HH method and closer to typical experimental conditions. Specifically, for the D-LFC apparatus used here, calibration in constant height mode introduced errors up to 14 %. In constant force mode using a relatively stiff cantilever, we observed an ≈ 4 % systematic error per μN of applied load for loads ≤ 1 μN. The issue of excessive load typically emerges for cantilevers whose flexural spring constant is large compared with the normal spring constant of the D-LFC setup (such that relatively small cantilever flexural displacements produce relatively large loads). Overall, the HH method carries a larger uncertainty, which is dominated by uncertainty in measurement of the flexural spring constant of the HH cantilever as well as in the effective length dimension of the cantilever probe. The D-LFC method relies on fewer parameters and thus has fewer uncertainties associated with it. We thus show that it is the preferred method of the two, as long as care is taken to perform the calibration in constant force mode with low applied loads.

Comparative Study of the Three-Dimensional Thermodynamical Structure of the Inner Corona of Solar Minimum Carrington Rotations 1915 and 2081

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lloveras, Diego G.; Vásquez, Alberto M.; Nuevo, Federico A.; Frazin, Richard A.

2017-10-01

Using differential emission measure tomography (DEMT) based on time series of EUV images, we carry out a quantitative comparative analysis of the three-dimensional (3D) structure of the electron density and temperature of the inner corona (r<1.25 R_{⊙}) between two specific rotations selected from the last two solar minima, namely Carrington Rotations (CR)1915 and CR-2081. The analysis places error bars on the results because of the systematic uncertainty of the sources. While the results for CR-2081 are characterized by a remarkable north-south symmetry, the southern hemisphere for CR-1915 exhibits higher densities and temperatures than the northern hemisphere. The core region of the streamer belt in both rotations is found to be populated by structures whose temperature decreases with height (called "down loops" in our previous articles). They are characterized by plasma β≳1, and may be the result of the efficient dissipation of Alfvén waves at low coronal heights. The comparative analysis reveals that the low latitudes of the equatorial streamer belt of CR-1915 exhibit higher densities than for CR-2081. This cannot be explained by the systematic uncertainties. In addition, the southern hemisphere of the streamer belt of CR-1915 is characterized by higher temperatures and density scale heights than for CR-2081. On the other hand, the coronal hole region of CR-1915 shows lower temperatures than for CR-2081. The reported differences are in the range ≈ 10 - 25%, depending on the specific physical quantity and region that is compared, as fully detailed in the analysis. For other regions and/or physical quantities, the uncertainties do not allow assessing the thermodynamical differences between the two rotations. Future investigation will involve a DEMT analysis of other Carrington rotations selected from both epochs, and also a comparison of their tomographic reconstructions with magnetohydrodynamical simulations of the inner corona.

CHEERS: The chemical evolution RGS sample

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Plaa, J.; Kaastra, J. S.; Werner, N.; Pinto, C.; Kosec, P.; Zhang, Y.-Y.; Mernier, F.; Lovisari, L.; Akamatsu, H.; Schellenberger, G.; Hofmann, F.; Reiprich, T. H.; Finoguenov, A.; Ahoranta, J.; Sanders, J. S.; Fabian, A. C.; Pols, O.; Simionescu, A.; Vink, J.; Böhringer, H.

2017-11-01

Context. The chemical yields of supernovae and the metal enrichment of the intra-cluster medium (ICM) are not well understood. The hot gas in clusters of galaxies has been enriched with metals originating from billions of supernovae and provides a fair sample of large-scale metal enrichment in the Universe. High-resolution X-ray spectra of clusters of galaxies provide a unique way of measuring abundances in the hot intracluster medium (ICM). The abundance measurements can provide constraints on the supernova explosion mechanism and the initial-mass function of the stellar population. This paper introduces the CHEmical Enrichment RGS Sample (CHEERS), which is a sample of 44 bright local giant ellipticals, groups, and clusters of galaxies observed with XMM-Newton. Aims: The CHEERS project aims to provide the most accurate set of cluster abundances measured in X-rays using this sample. This paper focuses specifically on the abundance measurements of O and Fe using the reflection grating spectrometer (RGS) on board XMM-Newton. We aim to thoroughly discuss the cluster to cluster abundance variations and the robustness of the measurements. Methods: We have selected the CHEERS sample such that the oxygen abundance in each cluster is detected at a level of at least 5σ in the RGS. The dispersive nature of the RGS limits the sample to clusters with sharp surface brightness peaks. The deep exposures and the size of the sample allow us to quantify the intrinsic scatter and the systematic uncertainties in the abundances using spectral modeling techniques. Results: We report the oxygen and iron abundances as measured with RGS in the core regions of all 44 clusters in the sample. We do not find a significant trend of O/Fe as a function of cluster temperature, but we do find an intrinsic scatter in the O and Fe abundances from cluster to cluster. The level of systematic uncertainties in the O/Fe ratio is estimated to be around 20-30%, while the systematic uncertainties in the absolute O and Fe abundances can be as high as 50% in extreme cases. Thanks to the high statistics of the observations, we were able to identify and correct a systematic bias in the oxygen abundance determination that was due to an inaccuracy in the spectral model. Conclusions: The lack of dependence of O/Fe on temperature suggests that the enrichment of the ICM does not depend on cluster mass and that most of the enrichment likely took place before the ICM was formed. We find that the observed scatter in the O/Fe ratio is due to a combination of intrinsic scatter in the source and systematic uncertainties in the spectral fitting, which we are unable to separate. The astrophysical source of intrinsic scatter could be due to differences in active galactic nucleus activity and ongoing star formation in the brightest cluster galaxy. The systematic scatter is due to uncertainties in the spatial line broadening, absorption column, multi-temperature structure, and the thermal plasma models.

SU-E-T-573: The Robustness of a Combined Margin Recipe for Uncertainties During Radiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stroom, J; Vieira, S; Greco, C

2014-06-01

Purpose: To investigate the variability of a safety margin recipe that combines CTV and PTV margins quadratically, with several tumor, treatment, and user related factors. Methods: Margin recipes were calculated by monte-carlo simulations in 5 steps. 1. A spherical tumor with or without isotropic microscopic was irradiated with a 5 field dose plan2. PTV: Geometric uncertainties were introduced using systematic (Sgeo) and random (sgeo) standard deviations. CTV: Microscopic disease distribution was modelled by semi-gaussian (Smicro) with varying number of islets (Ni)3. For a specific uncertainty set (Sgeo, sgeo, Smicro(Ni)), margins were varied until pre-defined decrease in TCP or dose coveragemore » was fulfilled. 4. First, margin recipes were calculated for each of the three uncertainties separately. CTV and PTV recipes were then combined quadratically to yield a final recipe M(Sgeo, sgeo, Smicro(Ni)).5. The final M was verified by simultaneous simulations of the uncertainties.Now, M has been calculated for various changing parameters like margin criteria, penumbra steepness, islet radio-sensitivity, dose conformity, and number of fractions. We subsequently investigated A: whether the combined recipe still holds in all these situations, and B: what the margin variation was in all these cases. Results: We found that the accuracy of the combined margin recipes remains on average within 1mm for all situations, confirming the correctness of the quadratic addition. Depending on the specific parameter, margin factors could change such that margins change over 50%. Especially margin recipes based on TCP-criteria are more sensitive to more parameters than those based on purely geometric Dmin-criteria. Interestingly, measures taken to minimize treatment field sizes (by e.g. optimizing dose conformity) are counteracted by the requirement of larger margins to get the same tumor coverage. Conclusion: Margin recipes combining geometric and microscopic uncertainties quadratically are accurate under varying circumstances. However margins can change up to 50% for different situations.« less

Uncertainty Propagation in OMFIT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Sterling; Meneghini, Orso; Sung, Choongki

2017-10-01

A rigorous comparison of power balance fluxes and turbulent model fluxes requires the propagation of uncertainties in the kinetic profiles and their derivatives. Making extensive use of the python uncertainties package, the OMFIT framework has been used to propagate covariant uncertainties to provide an uncertainty in the power balance calculation from the ONETWO code, as well as through the turbulent fluxes calculated by the TGLF code. The covariant uncertainties arise from fitting 1D (constant on flux surface) density and temperature profiles and associated random errors with parameterized functions such as a modified tanh. The power balance and model fluxes can then be compared with quantification of the uncertainties. No effort is made at propagating systematic errors. A case study will be shown for the effects of resonant magnetic perturbations on the kinetic profiles and fluxes at the top of the pedestal. A separate attempt at modeling the random errors with Monte Carlo sampling will be compared to the method of propagating the fitting function parameter covariant uncertainties. Work supported by US DOE under DE-FC02-04ER54698, DE-FG2-95ER-54309, DE-SC 0012656.

Adaptive robust fault-tolerant control for linear MIMO systems with unmatched uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kangkang; Jiang, Bin; Yan, Xing-Gang; Mao, Zehui

2017-10-01

In this paper, two novel fault-tolerant control design approaches are proposed for linear MIMO systems with actuator additive faults, multiplicative faults and unmatched uncertainties. For time-varying multiplicative and additive faults, new adaptive laws and additive compensation functions are proposed. A set of conditions is developed such that the unmatched uncertainties are compensated by actuators in control. On the other hand, for unmatched uncertainties with their projection in unmatched space being not zero, based on a (vector) relative degree condition, additive functions are designed to compensate for the uncertainties from output channels in the presence of actuator faults. The developed fault-tolerant control schemes are applied to two aircraft systems to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approaches.

Uncertainty reduction in intensity modulated proton therapy by inverse Monte Carlo treatment planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morávek, Zdenek; Rickhey, Mark; Hartmann, Matthias; Bogner, Ludwig

2009-08-01

Treatment plans for intensity-modulated proton therapy may be sensitive to some sources of uncertainty. One source is correlated with approximations of the algorithms applied in the treatment planning system and another one depends on how robust the optimization is with regard to intra-fractional tissue movements. The irradiated dose distribution may substantially deteriorate from the planning when systematic errors occur in the dose algorithm. This can influence proton ranges and lead to improper modeling of the Braggpeak degradation in heterogeneous structures or particle scatter or the nuclear interaction part. Additionally, systematic errors influence the optimization process, which leads to the convergence error. Uncertainties with regard to organ movements are related to the robustness of a chosen beam setup to tissue movements on irradiation. We present the inverse Monte Carlo treatment planning system IKO for protons (IKO-P), which tries to minimize the errors described above to a large extent. Additionally, robust planning is introduced by beam angle optimization according to an objective function penalizing paths representing strongly longitudinal and transversal tissue heterogeneities. The same score function is applied to optimize spot planning by the selection of a robust choice of spots. As spots can be positioned on different energy grids or on geometric grids with different space filling factors, a variety of grids were used to investigate the influence on the spot-weight distribution as a result of optimization. A tighter distribution of spot weights was assumed to result in a more robust plan with respect to movements. IKO-P is described in detail and demonstrated on a test case and a lung cancer case as well. Different options of spot planning and grid types are evaluated, yielding a superior plan quality with dose delivery to the spots from all beam directions over optimized beam directions. This option shows a tighter spot-weight distribution and should therefore be less sensitive to movements compared to optimized directions. But accepting a slight loss in plan quality, the latter choice could potentially improve robustness even further by accepting only spots from the most proper direction. The choice of a geometric grid instead of an energy grid for spot positioning has only a minor influence on the plan quality, at least for the investigated lung case.

Assessing cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccines with decision analytic models: what are the distinct challenges of low- and middle-income countries? A protocol for a systematic review.

PubMed

Ekwunife, Obinna I; Grote, Andreas Gerber; Mosch, Christoph; O'Mahony, James F; Lhachimi, Stefan K

2015-05-12

Cervical cancer poses a huge health burden, both to developed and developing nations, making prevention and control strategies necessary. However, the challenges of designing and implementing prevention strategies differ for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) as compared to countries with fully developed health care systems. Moreover, for many LMICs, much of the data needed for decision analytic modelling, such as prevalence, will most likely only be partly available or measured with much larger uncertainty. Lastly, imperfect implementation of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination may influence the effectiveness of cervical cancer prevention in unpredictable ways. This systematic review aims to assess how decision analytic modelling studies of HPV cost-effectiveness in LMICs accounted for the particular challenges faced in such countries. Specifically, the study will assess the following: (1) whether the existing literature on cost-effectiveness modelling of HPV vaccines acknowledges the distinct challenges of LMICs, (2) how these challenges were accommodated in the models, (3) whether certain parameters systemically exhibited large degrees of uncertainty due to lack of data and how influential were these parameters on model-based recommendations, and (4) whether the choice of modelling herd immunity influences model-based recommendations, especially when coverage of a HPV vaccination program is not optimal. We will conduct a systematic review to identify suitable studies from MEDLINE (via PubMed), EMBASE, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), EconLit, Web of Science, and CEA Registry. Searches will be conducted for studies of interest published since 2006. The searches will be supplemented by hand searching of the most relevant papers found in the search. Studies will be critically appraised using Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) statement checklist. We will undertake a descriptive, narrative, and interpretative synthesis of data to address the study objectives. The proposed systematic review will assess how the cost-effectiveness studies of HPV vaccines accounted for the distinct challenges of LMICs. The gaps identified will expose areas for additional research as well as challenges that need to be accounted for in future modelling studies. PROSPERO CRD42015017870.

Uncertainty evaluation of mass values determined by electronic balances in analytical chemistry: a new method to correct for air buoyancy.

PubMed

Wunderli, S; Fortunato, G; Reichmuth, A; Richard, Ph

2003-06-01

A new method to correct for the largest systematic influence in mass determination-air buoyancy-is outlined. A full description of the most relevant influence parameters is given and the combined measurement uncertainty is evaluated according to the ISO-GUM approach [1]. A new correction method for air buoyancy using an artefact is presented. This method has the advantage that only a mass artefact is used to correct for air buoyancy. The classical approach demands the determination of the air density and therefore suitable equipment to measure at least the air temperature, the air pressure and the relative air humidity within the demanded uncertainties (i.e. three independent measurement tasks have to be performed simultaneously). The calculated uncertainty is lower for the classical method. However a field laboratory may not always be in possession of fully traceable measurement systems for these room climatic parameters.A comparison of three approaches applied to the calculation of the combined uncertainty of mass values is presented. Namely the classical determination of air buoyancy, the artefact method, and the neglecting of this systematic effect as proposed in the new EURACHEM/CITAC guide [2]. The artefact method is suitable for high-precision measurement in analytical chemistry and especially for the production of certified reference materials, reference values and analytical chemical reference materials. The method could also be used either for volume determination of solids or for air density measurement by an independent method.

Governing Laws of Complex System Predictability under Co-evolving Uncertainty Sources: Theory and Nonlinear Geophysical Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perdigão, R. A. P.

2017-12-01

Predictability assessments are traditionally made on a case-by-case basis, often by running the particular model of interest with randomly perturbed initial/boundary conditions and parameters, producing computationally expensive ensembles. These approaches provide a lumped statistical view of uncertainty evolution, without eliciting the fundamental processes and interactions at play in the uncertainty dynamics. In order to address these limitations, we introduce a systematic dynamical framework for predictability assessment and forecast, by analytically deriving governing equations of predictability in terms of the fundamental architecture of dynamical systems, independent of any particular problem under consideration. The framework further relates multiple uncertainty sources along with their coevolutionary interplay, enabling a comprehensive and explicit treatment of uncertainty dynamics along time, without requiring the actual model to be run. In doing so, computational resources are freed and a quick and effective a-priori systematic dynamic evaluation is made of predictability evolution and its challenges, including aspects in the model architecture and intervening variables that may require optimization ahead of initiating any model runs. It further brings out universal dynamic features in the error dynamics elusive to any case specific treatment, ultimately shedding fundamental light on the challenging issue of predictability. The formulated approach, framed with broad mathematical physics generality in mind, is then implemented in dynamic models of nonlinear geophysical systems with various degrees of complexity, in order to evaluate their limitations and provide informed assistance on how to optimize their design and improve their predictability in fundamental dynamical terms.

Uncertainty contribution on the density of liquids due to unknown sinker temperature in hydrostatic weighing apparatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiebl, M.; Zelenka, Z.; Buchner, C.; Pohl, R.; Steindl, D.

2018-02-01

In this study, the influence of the unknown sinker temperature on the measured density of liquids is evaluated. Generally, due to the intrinsic temperature instability of the heat bath temperature controller, the system will never reach thermal equilibrium but instead will oscillate around a mean temperature. The sinker temperature follows this temperature oscillation with a certain time lag. Since the sinker temperature is not measured directly in a hydrostatic weighing apparatus, the temperature of the sinker, and thus in turn the volume of the sinker, is not known exactly. As a consequence, this leads to uncertainty in the value of the density of the liquid. From an analysis of the volume relaxation of the sinker immersed into a heat bath with time-dependent temperature characteristics, the heat transfer coefficient can be estimated, and thus a characteristic time constant for achieving quasi thermal equilibrium for a hydrostatic weighing apparatus is proposed. Additionally, from a theoretical analysis of the transient behavior of the sinker volume, the systematic deviation of the theoretical to the actual measured liquid density is calculated.

Use of SUSA in Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for INL VHTR Coupled Codes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gerhard Strydom

2010-06-01

The need for a defendable and systematic Uncertainty and Sensitivity approach that conforms to the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) process, and that could be used for a wide variety of software codes, was defined in 2008.The GRS (Gesellschaft für Anlagen und Reaktorsicherheit) company of Germany has developed one type of CSAU approach that is particularly well suited for legacy coupled core analysis codes, and a trial version of their commercial software product SUSA (Software for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses) was acquired on May 12, 2010. This interim milestone report provides an overview of the current status of themore » implementation and testing of SUSA at the INL VHTR Project Office.« less

Hybrid Gibbs Sampling and MCMC for CMB Analysis at Small Angular Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jewell, Jeffrey B.; Eriksen, H. K.; Wandelt, B. D.; Gorski, K. M.; Huey, G.; O'Dwyer, I. J.; Dickinson, C.; Banday, A. J.; Lawrence, C. R.

2008-01-01

A) Gibbs Sampling has now been validated as an efficient, statistically exact, and practically useful method for "low-L" (as demonstrated on WMAP temperature polarization data). B) We are extending Gibbs sampling to directly propagate uncertainties in both foreground and instrument models to total uncertainty in cosmological parameters for the entire range of angular scales relevant for Planck. C) Made possible by inclusion of foreground model parameters in Gibbs sampling and hybrid MCMC and Gibbs sampling for the low signal to noise (high-L) regime. D) Future items to be included in the Bayesian framework include: 1) Integration with Hybrid Likelihood (or posterior) code for cosmological parameters; 2) Include other uncertainties in instrumental systematics? (I.e. beam uncertainties, noise estimation, calibration errors, other).

Gamma-Ray Background Variability in Mobile Detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aucott, Timothy John

Gamma-ray background radiation significantly reduces detection sensitivity when searching for radioactive sources in the field, such as in wide-area searches for homeland security applications. Mobile detector systems in particular must contend with a variable background that is not necessarily known or even measurable a priori. This work will present measurements of the spatial and temporal variability of the background, with the goal of merging gamma-ray detection, spectroscopy, and imaging with contextual information--a "nuclear street view" of the ubiquitous background radiation. The gamma-ray background originates from a variety of sources, both natural and anthropogenic. The dominant sources in the field are the primordial isotopes potassium-40, uranium-238, and thorium-232, as well as their decay daughters. In addition to the natural background, many artificially-created isotopes are used for industrial or medical purposes, and contamination from fission products can be found in many environments. Regardless of origin, these backgrounds will reduce detection sensitivity by adding both statistical as well as systematic uncertainty. In particular, large detector arrays will be limited by the systematic uncertainty in the background and will suffer from a high rate of false alarms. The goal of this work is to provide a comprehensive characterization of the gamma-ray background and its variability in order to improve detection sensitivity and evaluate the performance of mobile detectors in the field. Large quantities of data are measured in order to study their performance at very low false alarm rates. Two different approaches, spectroscopy and imaging, are compared in a controlled study in the presence of this measured background. Furthermore, there is additional information that can be gained by correlating the gamma-ray data with contextual data streams (such as cameras and global positioning systems) in order to reduce the variability in the background. This is accomplished by making many hours of background measurements with a truck-mounted system, which utilizes high-purity germanium detectors for spectroscopy and sodium iodide detectors for coded aperture imaging. This system also utilizes various peripheral sensors, such as panoramic cameras, laser ranging systems, global positioning systems, and a weather station to provide context for the gamma-ray data. About three hundred hours of data were taken in the San Francisco Bay Area, covering a wide variety of environments that might be encountered in operational scenarios. These measurements were used in a source injection study to evaluate the sensitivity of different algorithms (imaging and spectroscopy) and hardware (sodium iodide and high-purity germanium detectors). These measurements confirm that background distributions in large, mobile detector systems are dominated by systematic, not statistical variations, and both spectroscopy and imaging were found to substantially reduce this variability. Spectroscopy performed better than the coded aperture for the given scintillator array (one square meter of sodium iodide) for a variety of sources and geometries. By modeling the statistical and systematic uncertainties of the background, the data can be sampled to simulate the performance of a detector array of arbitrary size and resolution. With a larger array or lower resolution detectors, however imaging was better able to compensate for background variability.

Clinical Uncertainties, Health Service Challenges, and Ethical Complexities of HIV “Test-and-Treat”: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Shah, Kavita R.; Sarma, Karthik V.; Mahajan, Anish P.

2013-01-01

Despite the HIV “test-and-treat” strategy’s promise, questions about its clinical rationale, operational feasibility, and ethical appropriateness have led to vigorous debate in the global HIV community. We performed a systematic review of the literature published between January 2009 and May 2012 using PubMed, SCOPUS, Global Health, Web of Science, BIOSIS, Cochrane CENTRAL, EBSCO Africa-Wide Information, and EBSCO CINAHL Plus databases to summarize clinical uncertainties, health service challenges, and ethical complexities that may affect the test-and-treat strategy’s success. A thoughtful approach to research and implementation to address clinical and health service questions and meaningful community engagement regarding ethical complexities may bring us closer to safe, feasible, and effective test-and-treat implementation. PMID:23597344

Characterization of the PTW SourceCheck ionization chamber with the Valencia lodgment for (125)I seed verification.

PubMed

Tornero-López, Ana M; Torres Del Río, Julia; Ruiz, Carmen; Perez-Calatayud, Jose; Guirado, Damián; Lallena, Antonio M

2015-12-01

In brachytherapy using (125)I seed implants, a verification of the air kerma strength of the sources used is required. Typically, between 40 and 100 seeds are implanted. Checking all of them is unaffordable, especially when seeds are disposed in sterile cartridges. Recently, a new procedure allowing the accomplishment of the international recommendations has been proposed for the seedSelectron system of Elekta Brachytherapy. In this procedure, the SourceCheck ionization chamber is used with a special lodgment (Valencia lodgment) that allows to measure up to 10 seeds simultaneously. In this work we analyze this procedure, showing the feasibility of the approximations required for its application, as well as the effect of the additional dependence with the air density that shows the chamber model used. Uncertainty calculations and the verification of the approximation needed to obtain a calibration factor for the Valencia lodgment are carried out. The results of the present work show that the chamber dependence with the air density is the same whether the Valencia lodgment is used or not. On the contrary, the chamber response profile is influenced by the presence of the lodgment. The determination of this profile requires various measurements due to the nonnegligible variability found between different experiments. If it is considered, the uncertainty in the determination of the air-kerma strength increases from 0.5% to 1%. Otherwise, a systematic additional uncertainty of 1% would occur. This could be relevant for the comparison between user and manufacturer measurements that is mandatory in the case studied here. Copyright © 2015 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measurement of the W-boson mass in pp collisions at √{s}=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aaboud, M.; Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; Abdallah, J.; Abdinov, O.; Abeloos, B.; Abidi, S. H.; AbouZeid, O. S.; Abraham, N. L.; Abramowicz, H.; Abreu, H.; Abreu, R.; Abulaiti, Y.; Acharya, B. S.; Adachi, S.; Adamczyk, L.; Adams, D. L.; Adelman, J.; Adersberger, M.; Adye, T.; Affolder, A. A.; Agatonovic-Jovin, T.; Agheorghiesei, C.; Aguilar-Saavedra, J. A.; Ahlen, S. P.; Ahmadov, F.; Aielli, G.; Akatsuka, S.; Akerstedt, H.; Åkesson, T. P. A.; Akimov, A. V.; Alberghi, G. L.; Albert, J.; Alconada Verzini, M. J.; Aleksa, M.; Aleksandrov, I. N.; Alexa, C.; Alexander, G.; Alexopoulos, T.; Alhroob, M.; Ali, B.; Aliev, M.; Alimonti, G.; Alison, J.; Alkire, S. P.; Allbrooke, B. M. M.; Allen, B. W.; Allport, P. P.; Aloisio, A.; Alonso, A.; Alonso, F.; Alpigiani, C.; Alshehri, A. A.; Alstaty, M.; Alvarez Gonzalez, B.; Álvarez Piqueras, D.; Alviggi, M. G.; Amadio, B. T.; Amaral Coutinho, Y.; Amelung, C.; Amidei, D.; Amor Dos Santos, S. P.; Amorim, A.; Amoroso, S.; Amundsen, G.; Anastopoulos, C.; Ancu, L. S.; Andari, N.; Andeen, T.; Anders, C. F.; Anders, J. K.; Anderson, K. J.; Andreazza, A.; Andrei, V.; Angelidakis, S.; Angelozzi, I.; Angerami, A.; Anghinolfi, F.; Anisenkov, A. V.; Anjos, N.; Annovi, A.; Antel, C.; Antonelli, M.; Antonov, A.; Antrim, D. J.; Anulli, F.; Aoki, M.; Aperio Bella, L.; Arabidze, G.; Arai, Y.; Araque, J. P.; Araujo Ferraz, V.; Arce, A. T. H.; Ardell, R. E.; Arduh, F. A.; Arguin, J.-F.; Argyropoulos, S.; Arik, M.; Armbruster, A. J.; Armitage, L. J.; Arnaez, O.; Arnold, H.; Arratia, M.; Arslan, O.; Artamonov, A.; Artoni, G.; Artz, S.; Asai, S.; Asbah, N.; Ashkenazi, A.; Asquith, L.; Assamagan, K.; Astalos, R.; Atkinson, M.; Atlay, N. B.; Augsten, K.; Avolio, G.; Axen, B.; Ayoub, M. K.; Azuelos, G.; Baas, A. E.; Baca, M. J.; Bachacou, H.; Bachas, K.; Backes, M.; Backhaus, M.; Bagiacchi, P.; Bagnaia, P.; Baines, J. T.; Bajic, M.; Baker, O. K.; Baldin, E. M.; Balek, P.; Balestri, T.; Balli, F.; Balunas, W. K.; Banas, E.; Banerjee, Sw.; Bannoura, A. A. E.; Barak, L.; Barberio, E. L.; Barberis, D.; Barbero, M.; Barillari, T.; Barisits, M.-S.; Barklow, T.; Barlow, N.; Barnes, S. L.; Barnett, B. M.; Barnett, R. M.; Barnovska-Blenessy, Z.; Baroncelli, A.; Barone, G.; Barr, A. J.; Barranco Navarro, L.; Barreiro, F.; Barreiro Guimarães da Costa, J.; Bartoldus, R.; Barton, A. E.; Bartos, P.; Basalaev, A.; Bassalat, A.; Bates, R. L.; Batista, S. J.; Batley, J. R.; Battaglia, M.; Bauce, M.; Bauer, F.; Bawa, H. S.; Beacham, J. B.; Beattie, M. D.; Beau, T.; Beauchemin, P. H.; Bechtle, P.; Beck, H. P.; Becker, K.; Becker, M.; Beckingham, M.; Becot, C.; Beddall, A. J.; Beddall, A.; Bednyakov, V. A.; Bedognetti, M.; Bee, C. P.; Beermann, T. A.; Begalli, M.; Begel, M.; Behr, J. K.; Bell, A. S.; Bella, G.; Bellagamba, L.; Bellerive, A.; Bellomo, M.; Belotskiy, K.; Beltramello, O.; Belyaev, N. L.; Benary, O.; Benchekroun, D.; Bender, M.; Bendtz, K.; Benekos, N.; Benhammou, Y.; Benhar Noccioli, E.; Benitez, J.; Benjamin, D. P.; Benoit, M.; Bensinger, J. R.; Bentvelsen, S.; Beresford, L.; Beretta, M.; Berge, D.; Bergeaas Kuutmann, E.; Berger, N.; Beringer, J.; Berlendis, S.; Bernard, N. R.; Bernardi, G.; Bernius, C.; Bernlochner, F. U.; Berry, T.; Berta, P.; Bertella, C.; Bertoli, G.; Bertolucci, F.; Bertram, I. A.; Bertsche, C.; Bertsche, D.; Besjes, G. J.; Bessidskaia Bylund, O.; Bessner, M.; Besson, N.; Betancourt, C.; Bethani, A.; Bethke, S.; Bevan, A. J.; Bianchi, R. M.; Biebel, O.; Biedermann, D.; Bianco, M.; Bielski, R.; Biesuz, N. V.; Biglietti, M.; Bilbao De Mendizabal, J.; Billoud, T. R. V.; Bilokon, H.; Bindi, M.; Bingul, A.; Bini, C.; Biondi, S.; Bisanz, T.; Bittrich, C.; Bjergaard, D. M.; Black, C. W.; Black, J. E.; Black, K. M.; Blackburn, D.; Blair, R. E.; Blanchard, J.-B.; Blazek, T.; Bloch, I.; Blocker, C.; Blue, A.; Blum, W.; Blumenschein, U.; Blunier, S.; Bobbink, G. J.; Bobrovnikov, V. S.; Bocchetta, S. S.; Bocci, A.; Bock, C.; Boehler, M.; Boerner, D.; Bogavac, D.; Bogdanchikov, A. G.; Bohm, C.; Boisvert, V.; Bokan, P.; Bold, T.; Boldyrev, A. S.; Bomben, M.; Bona, M.; Boonekamp, M.; Borisov, A.; Borissov, G.; Bortfeldt, J.; Bortoletto, D.; Bortolotto, V.; Bos, K.; Boscherini, D.; Bosman, M.; Bossio Sola, J. D.; Boudreau, J.; Bouffard, J.; Bouhova-Thacker, E. V.; Boumediene, D.; Bourdarios, C.; Boutle, S. K.; Boveia, A.; Boyd, J.; Boyko, I. R.; Bracinik, J.; Brandt, A.; Brandt, G.; Brandt, O.; Bratzler, U.; Brau, B.; Brau, J. E.; Breaden Madden, W. D.; Brendlinger, K.; Brennan, A. J.; Brenner, L.; Brenner, R.; Bressler, S.; Briglin, D. L.; Bristow, T. M.; Britton, D.; Britzger, D.; Brochu, F. M.; Brock, I.; Brock, R.; Brooijmans, G.; Brooks, T.; Brooks, W. K.; Brosamer, J.; Brost, E.; Broughton, J. H.; Bruckman de Renstrom, P. A.; Bruncko, D.; Bruni, A.; Bruni, G.; Bruni, L. S.; Brunt, B. H.; Bruschi, M.; Bruscino, N.; Bryant, P.; Bryngemark, L.; Buanes, T.; Buat, Q.; Buchholz, P.; Buckley, A. G.; Budagov, I. A.; Buehrer, F.; Bugge, M. K.; Bulekov, O.; Bullock, D.; Burckhart, H.; Burdin, S.; Burgard, C. D.; Burger, A. M.; Burghgrave, B.; Burka, K.; Burke, S.; Burmeister, I.; Burr, J. T. P.; Busato, E.; Büscher, D.; Büscher, V.; Bussey, P.; Butler, J. M.; Buttar, C. M.; Butterworth, J. M.; Butti, P.; Buttinger, W.; Buzatu, A.; Buzykaev, A. R.; Cabrera Urbán, S.; Caforio, D.; Cairo, V. M.; Cakir, O.; Calace, N.; Calafiura, P.; Calandri, A.; Calderini, G.; Calfayan, P.; Callea, G.; Caloba, L. P.; Calvente Lopez, S.; Calvet, D.; Calvet, S.; Calvet, T. P.; Camacho Toro, R.; Camarda, S.; Camarri, P.; Cameron, D.; Caminal Armadans, R.; Camincher, C.; Campana, S.; Campanelli, M.; Camplani, A.; Campoverde, A.; Canale, V.; Cano Bret, M.; Cantero, J.; Cao, T.; Capeans Garrido, M. D. M.; Caprini, I.; Caprini, M.; Capua, M.; Carbone, R. M.; Cardarelli, R.; Cardillo, F.; Carli, I.; Carli, T.; Carlino, G.; Carlson, B. T.; Carminati, L.; Carney, R. M. D.; Caron, S.; Carquin, E.; Carrillo-Montoya, G. D.; Carvalho, J.; Casadei, D.; Casado, M. P.; Casolino, M.; Casper, D. W.; Castelijn, R.; Castelli, A.; Castillo Gimenez, V.; Castro, N. F.; Catinaccio, A.; Catmore, J. R.; Cattai, A.; Caudron, J.; Cavaliere, V.; Cavallaro, E.; Cavalli, D.; Cavalli-Sforza, M.; Cavasinni, V.; Celebi, E.; Ceradini, F.; Cerda Alberich, L.; Cerqueira, A. S.; Cerri, A.; Cerrito, L.; Cerutti, F.; Cervelli, A.; Cetin, S. A.; Chafaq, A.; Chakraborty, D.; Chan, S. K.; Chan, W. S.; Chan, Y. L.; Chang, P.; Chapman, J. D.; Charlton, D. G.; Chatterjee, A.; Chau, C. C.; Chavez Barajas, C. A.; Che, S.; Cheatham, S.; Chegwidden, A.; Chekanov, S.; Chekulaev, S. V.; Chelkov, G. A.; Chelstowska, M. A.; Chen, C.; Chen, H.; Chen, S.; Chen, S.; Chen, X.; Chen, Y.; Cheng, H. C.; Cheng, H. J.; Cheng, Y.; Cheplakov, A.; Cheremushkina, E.; Cherkaoui El Moursli, R.; Chernyatin, V.; Cheu, E.; Chevalier, L.; Chiarella, V.; Chiarelli, G.; Chiodini, G.; Chisholm, A. S.; Chitan, A.; Chiu, Y. H.; Chizhov, M. V.; Choi, K.; Chomont, A. R.; Chouridou, S.; Chow, B. K. B.; Christodoulou, V.; Chromek-Burckhart, D.; Chu, M. C.; Chudoba, J.; Chuinard, A. J.; Chwastowski, J. J.; Chytka, L.; Ciftci, A. K.; Cinca, D.; Cindro, V.; Cioara, I. A.; Ciocca, C.; Ciocio, A.; Cirotto, F.; Citron, Z. H.; Citterio, M.; Ciubancan, M.; Clark, A.; Clark, B. L.; Clark, M. R.; Clark, P. J.; Clarke, R. N.; Clement, C.; Coadou, Y.; Cobal, M.; Coccaro, A.; Cochran, J.; Colasurdo, L.; Cole, B.; Colijn, A. P.; Collot, J.; Colombo, T.; Conde Muiño, P.; Coniavitis, E.; Connell, S. H.; Connelly, I. A.; Consorti, V.; Constantinescu, S.; Conti, G.; Conventi, F.; Cooke, M.; Cooper, B. D.; Cooper-Sarkar, A. M.; Cormier, F.; Cormier, K. J. R.; Cornelissen, T.; Corradi, M.; Corriveau, F.; Cortes-Gonzalez, A.; Cortiana, G.; Costa, G.; Costa, M. J.; Costanzo, D.; Cottin, G.; Cowan, G.; Cox, B. E.; Cranmer, K.; Crawley, S. J.; Creager, R. A.; Cree, G.; Crépé-Renaudin, S.; Crescioli, F.; Cribbs, W. A.; Crispin Ortuzar, M.; Cristinziani, M.; Croft, V.; Crosetti, G.; Cueto, A.; Cuhadar Donszelmann, T.; Cummings, J.; Curatolo, M.; Cúth, J.; Czirr, H.; Czodrowski, P.; D'amen, G.; D'Auria, S.; D'Onofrio, M.; Da Cunha Sargedas De Sousa, M. J.; Da Via, C.; Dabrowski, W.; Dado, T.; Dai, T.; Dale, O.; Dallaire, F.; Dallapiccola, C.; Dam, M.; Dandoy, J. R.; Dang, N. P.; Daniells, A. C.; Dann, N. S.; Danninger, M.; Dano Hoffmann, M.; Dao, V.; Darbo, G.; Darmora, S.; Dassoulas, J.; Dattagupta, A.; Daubney, T.; Davey, W.; David, C.; Davidek, T.; Davies, M.; Davison, P.; Dawe, E.; Dawson, I.; De, K.; de Asmundis, R.; De Benedetti, A.; De Castro, S.; De Cecco, S.; De Groot, N.; de Jong, P.; De la Torre, H.; De Lorenzi, F.; De Maria, A.; De Pedis, D.; De Salvo, A.; De Sanctis, U.; De Santo, A.; De Vasconcelos Corga, K.; De Vivie De Regie, J. B.; Dearnaley, W. J.; Debbe, R.; Debenedetti, C.; Dedovich, D. V.; Dehghanian, N.; Deigaard, I.; Del Gaudio, M.; Del Peso, J.; Del Prete, T.; Delgove, D.; Deliot, F.; Delitzsch, C. M.; Dell'Acqua, A.; Dell'Asta, L.; Dell'Orso, M.; Della Pietra, M.; della Volpe, D.; Delmastro, M.; Delsart, P. A.; DeMarco, D. A.; Demers, S.; Demichev, M.; Demilly, A.; Denisov, S. P.; Denysiuk, D.; Derendarz, D.; Derkaoui, J. E.; Derue, F.; Dervan, P.; Desch, K.; Deterre, C.; Dette, K.; Deviveiros, P. O.; Dewhurst, A.; Dhaliwal, S.; Di Ciaccio, A.; Di Ciaccio, L.; Di Clemente, W. K.; Di Donato, C.; Di Girolamo, A.; Di Girolamo, B.; Di Micco, B.; Di Nardo, R.; Di Petrillo, K. F.; Di Simone, A.; Di Sipio, R.; Di Valentino, D.; Diaconu, C.; Diamond, M.; Dias, F. A.; Diaz, M. A.; Diehl, E. B.; Dietrich, J.; Díez Cornell, S.; Dimitrievska, A.; Dingfelder, J.; Dita, P.; Dita, S.; Dittus, F.; Djama, F.; Djobava, T.; Djuvsland, J. I.; do Vale, M. A. B.; Dobos, D.; Dobre, M.; Doglioni, C.; Dolejsi, J.; Dolezal, Z.; Donadelli, M.; Donati, S.; Dondero, P.; Donini, J.; Dopke, J.; Doria, A.; Dova, M. T.; Doyle, A. T.; Drechsler, E.; Dris, M.; Du, Y.; Duarte-Campderros, J.; Duchovni, E.; Duckeck, G.; Ducu, O. A.; Duda, D.; Dudarev, A.; Dudder, A. Chr.; Duffield, E. M.; Duflot, L.; Dührssen, M.; Dumancic, M.; Dumitriu, A. E.; Duncan, A. K.; Dunford, M.; Duran Yildiz, H.; Düren, M.; Durglishvili, A.; Duschinger, D.; Dutta, B.; Dyndal, M.; Eckardt, C.; Ecker, K. M.; Edgar, R. C.; Eifert, T.; Eigen, G.; Einsweiler, K.; Ekelof, T.; El Kacimi, M.; Ellajosyula, V.; Ellert, M.; Elles, S.; Ellinghaus, F.; Elliot, A. A.; Ellis, N.; Elmsheuser, J.; Elsing, M.; Emeliyanov, D.; Enari, Y.; Endner, O. C.; Ennis, J. S.; Erdmann, J.; Ereditato, A.; Ernis, G.; Ernst, M.; Errede, S.; Ertel, E.; Escalier, M.; Esch, H.; Escobar, C.; Esposito, B.; Etienvre, A. I.; Etzion, E.; Evans, H.; Ezhilov, A.; Fabbri, F.; Fabbri, L.; Facini, G.; Fakhrutdinov, R. M.; Falciano, S.; Falla, R. J.; Faltova, J.; Fang, Y.; Fanti, M.; Farbin, A.; Farilla, A.; Farina, C.; Farina, E. M.; Farooque, T.; Farrell, S.; Farrington, S. M.; Farthouat, P.; Fassi, F.; Fassnacht, P.; Fassouliotis, D.; Faucci Giannelli, M.; Favareto, A.; Fawcett, W. J.; Fayard, L.; Fedin, O. L.; Fedorko, W.; Feigl, S.; Feligioni, L.; Feng, C.; Feng, E. J.; Feng, H.; Fenyuk, A. B.; Feremenga, L.; Fernandez Martinez, P.; Fernandez Perez, S.; Ferrando, J.; Ferrari, A.; Ferrari, P.; Ferrari, R.; Ferreira de Lima, D. E.; Ferrer, A.; Ferrere, D.; Ferretti, C.; Fiedler, F.; Filipčič, A.; Filipuzzi, M.; Filthaut, F.; Fincke-Keeler, M.; Finelli, K. D.; Fiolhais, M. C. N.; Fiorini, L.; Fischer, A.; Fischer, C.; Fischer, J.; Fisher, W. C.; Flaschel, N.; Fleck, I.; Fleischmann, P.; Fletcher, R. R. M.; Flick, T.; Flierl, B. M.; Flores Castillo, L. R.; Flowerdew, M. J.; Forcolin, G. T.; Formica, A.; Forti, A.; Foster, A. G.; Fournier, D.; Fox, H.; Fracchia, S.; Francavilla, P.; Franchini, M.; Francis, D.; Franconi, L.; Franklin, M.; Frate, M.; Fraternali, M.; Freeborn, D.; Fressard-Batraneanu, S. M.; Freund, B.; Froidevaux, D.; Frost, J. A.; Fukunaga, C.; Torregrosa, E. Fullana; Fusayasu, T.; Fuster, J.; Gabaldon, C.; Gabizon, O.; Gabrielli, A.; Gabrielli, A.; Gach, G. P.; Gadatsch, S.; Gadomski, S.; Gagliardi, G.; Gagnon, L. G.; Gagnon, P.; Galea, C.; Galhardo, B.; Gallas, E. J.; Gallop, B. J.; Gallus, P.; Galster, G.; Gan, K. K.; Ganguly, S.; Gao, J.; Gao, Y.; Gao, Y. S.; Garay Walls, F. M.; García, C.; García Navarro, J. E.; Garcia-Sciveres, M.; Gardner, R. W.; Garelli, N.; Garonne, V.; Gascon Bravo, A.; Gasnikova, K.; Gatti, C.; Gaudiello, A.; Gaudio, G.; Gavrilenko, I. L.; Gay, C.; Gaycken, G.; Gazis, E. N.; Gee, C. N. P.; Geisen, M.; Geisler, M. P.; Gellerstedt, K.; Gemme, C.; Genest, M. H.; Geng, C.; Gentile, S.; Gentsos, C.; George, S.; Gerbaudo, D.; Gershon, A.; Ghasemi, S.; Ghneimat, M.; Giacobbe, B.; Giagu, S.; Giannetti, P.; Gibson, S. M.; Gignac, M.; Gilchriese, M.; Gillberg, D.; Gilles, G.; Gingrich, D. M.; Giokaris, N.; Giordani, M. P.; Giorgi, F. M.; Giraud, P. F.; Giromini, P.; Giugni, D.; Giuli, F.; Giuliani, C.; Giulini, M.; Gjelsten, B. K.; Gkaitatzis, S.; Gkialas, I.; Gkougkousis, E. L.; Gladilin, L. K.; Glasman, C.; Glatzer, J.; Glaysher, P. C. F.; Glazov, A.; Goblirsch-Kolb, M.; Godlewski, J.; Goldfarb, S.; Golling, T.; Golubkov, D.; Gomes, A.; Gonçalo, R.; Goncalves Gama, R.; Goncalves Pinto Firmino Da Costa, J.; Gonella, G.; Gonella, L.; Gongadze, A.; González de la Hoz, S.; Gonzalez-Sevilla, S.; Goossens, L.; Gorbounov, P. A.; Gordon, H. A.; Gorelov, I.; Gorini, B.; Gorini, E.; Gorišek, A.; Goshaw, A. T.; Gössling, C.; Gostkin, M. I.; Goudet, C. R.; Goujdami, D.; Goussiou, A. G.; Govender, N.; Gozani, E.; Graber, L.; Grabowska-Bold, I.; Gradin, P. O. J.; Gramling, J.; Gramstad, E.; Grancagnolo, S.; Gratchev, V.; Gravila, P. M.; Gray, H. M.; Greenwood, Z. D.; Grefe, C.; Gregersen, K.; Gregor, I. M.; Grenier, P.; Grevtsov, K.; Griffiths, J.; Grillo, A. A.; Grimm, K.; Grinstein, S.; Gris, Ph.; Grivaz, J.-F.; Groh, S.; Gross, E.; Grosse-Knetter, J.; Grossi, G. C.; Grout, Z. J.; Guan, L.; Guan, W.; Guenther, J.; Guescini, F.; Guest, D.; Gueta, O.; Gui, B.; Guido, E.; Guillemin, T.; Guindon, S.; Gul, U.; Gumpert, C.; Guo, J.; Guo, W.; Guo, Y.; Gupta, R.; Gupta, S.; Gustavino, G.; Gutierrez, P.; Gutierrez Ortiz, N. G.; Gutschow, C.; Guyot, C.; Guzik, M. P.; Gwenlan, C.; Gwilliam, C. B.; Haas, A.; Haber, C.; Hadavand, H. K.; Hadef, A.; Hageböck, S.; Hagihara, M.; Hakobyan, H.; Haleem, M.; Haley, J.; Halladjian, G.; Hallewell, G. D.; Hamacher, K.; Hamal, P.; Hamano, K.; Hamilton, A.; Hamity, G. N.; Hamnett, P. G.; Han, L.; Han, S.; Hanagaki, K.; Hanawa, K.; Hance, M.; Haney, B.; Hanke, P.; Hanna, R.; Hansen, J. B.; Hansen, J. D.; Hansen, M. C.; Hansen, P. H.; Hara, K.; Hard, A. S.; Harenberg, T.; Hariri, F.; Harkusha, S.; Harrington, R. D.; Harrison, P. F.; Hartjes, F.; Hartmann, N. M.; Hasegawa, M.; Hasegawa, Y.; Hasib, A.; Hassani, S.; Haug, S.; Hauser, R.; Hauswald, L.; Havener, L. B.; Havranek, M.; Hawkes, C. M.; Hawkings, R. J.; Hayakawa, D.; Hayden, D.; Hays, C. P.; Hays, J. M.; Hayward, H. S.; Haywood, S. J.; Head, S. J.; Heck, T.; Hedberg, V.; Heelan, L.; Heidegger, K. K.; Heim, S.; Heim, T.; Heinemann, B.; Heinrich, J. J.; Heinrich, L.; Heinz, C.; Hejbal, J.; Helary, L.; Held, A.; Hellman, S.; Helsens, C.; Henderson, J.; Henderson, R. C. W.; Heng, Y.; Henkelmann, S.; Henriques Correia, A. M.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Herbert, G. H.; Herde, H.; Herget, V.; Hernández Jiménez, Y.; Herten, G.; Hertenberger, R.; Hervas, L.; Herwig, T. C.; Hesketh, G. G.; Hessey, N. P.; Hetherly, J. W.; Higashino, S.; Higón-Rodriguez, E.; Hill, E.; Hill, J. C.; Hiller, K. H.; Hillier, S. J.; Hinchliffe, I.; Hirose, M.; Hirschbuehl, D.; Hiti, B.; Hladik, O.; Hoad, X.; Hobbs, J.; Hod, N.; Hodgkinson, M. C.; Hodgson, P.; Hoecker, A.; Hoeferkamp, M. R.; Hoenig, F.; Hohn, D.; Holmes, T. R.; Homann, M.; Honda, S.; Honda, T.; Hong, T. M.; Hooberman, B. H.; Hopkins, W. H.; Horii, Y.; Horton, A. J.; Hostachy, J.-Y.; Hou, S.; Hoummada, A.; Howarth, J.; Hoya, J.; Hrabovsky, M.; Hristova, I.; Hrivnac, J.; Hryn'ova, T.; Hrynevich, A.; Hsu, P. J.; Hsu, S.-C.; Hu, Q.; Hu, S.; Huang, Y.; Hubacek, Z.; Hubaut, F.; Huegging, F.; Huffman, T. B.; Hughes, E. W.; Hughes, G.; Huhtinen, M.; Huo, P.; Huseynov, N.; Huston, J.; Huth, J.; Iacobucci, G.; Iakovidis, G.; Ibragimov, I.; Iconomidou-Fayard, L.; Iengo, P.; Igonkina, O.; Iizawa, T.; Ikegami, Y.; Ikeno, M.; Ilchenko, Y.; Iliadis, D.; Ilic, N.; Introzzi, G.; Ioannou, P.; Iodice, M.; Iordanidou, K.; Ippolito, V.; Ishijima, N.; Ishino, M.; Ishitsuka, M.; Issever, C.; Istin, S.; Ito, F.; Iturbe Ponce, J. M.; Iuppa, R.; Iwasaki, H.; Izen, J. M.; Izzo, V.; Jabbar, S.; Jackson, P.; Jain, V.; Jakobi, K. B.; Jakobs, K.; Jakobsen, S.; Jakoubek, T.; Jamin, D. O.; Jana, D. K.; Jansky, R.; Janssen, J.; Janus, M.; Janus, P. A.; Jarlskog, G.; Javadov, N.; Javůrek, T.; Javurkova, M.; Jeanneau, F.; Jeanty, L.; Jejelava, J.; Jelinskas, A.; Jenni, P.; Jeske, C.; Jézéquel, S.; Ji, H.; Jia, J.; Jiang, H.; Jiang, Y.; Jiang, Z.; Jiggins, S.; Jimenez Pena, J.; Jin, S.; Jinaru, A.; Jinnouchi, O.; Jivan, H.; Johansson, P.; Johns, K. A.; Johnson, C. A.; Johnson, W. J.; Jon-And, K.; Jones, R. W. L.; Jones, S.; Jones, T. J.; Jongmanns, J.; Jorge, P. M.; Jovicevic, J.; Ju, X.; Juste Rozas, A.; Köhler, M. K.; Kaczmarska, A.; Kado, M.; Kagan, H.; Kagan, M.; Kahn, S. J.; Kaji, T.; Kajomovitz, E.; Kalderon, C. W.; Kaluza, A.; Kama, S.; Kamenshchikov, A.; Kanaya, N.; Kaneti, S.; Kanjir, L.; Kantserov, V. A.; Kanzaki, J.; Kaplan, B.; Kaplan, L. S.; Kar, D.; Karakostas, K.; Karastathis, N.; Kareem, M. J.; Karentzos, E.; Karnevskiy, M.; Karpov, S. N.; Karpova, Z. M.; Karthik, K.; Kartvelishvili, V.; Karyukhin, A. N.; Kasahara, K.; Kashif, L.; Kass, R. D.; Kastanas, A.; Kataoka, Y.; Kato, C.; Katre, A.; Katzy, J.; Kawade, K.; Kawagoe, K.; Kawamoto, T.; Kawamura, G.; Kay, E. F.; Kazanin, V. F.; Keeler, R.; Kehoe, R.; Keller, J. S.; Kempster, J. J.; Keoshkerian, H.; Kepka, O.; Kerševan, B. P.; Kersten, S.; Keyes, R. A.; Khader, M.; Khalil-zada, F.; Khanov, A.; Kharlamov, A. G.; Kharlamova, T.; Khodinov, A.; Khoo, T. J.; Khovanskiy, V.; Khramov, E.; Khubua, J.; Kido, S.; Kilby, C. R.; Kim, H. Y.; Kim, S. H.; Kim, Y. K.; Kimura, N.; Kind, O. M.; King, B. T.; Kirchmeier, D.; Kirk, J.; Kiryunin, A. E.; Kishimoto, T.; Kisielewska, D.; Kiuchi, K.; Kivernyk, O.; Kladiva, E.; Klapdor-Kleingrothaus, T.; Klein, M. H.; Klein, M.; Klein, U.; Kleinknecht, K.; Klimek, P.; Klimentov, A.; Klingenberg, R.; Klioutchnikova, T.; Kluge, E.-E.; Kluit, P.; Kluth, S.; Knapik, J.; Kneringer, E.; Knoops, E. B. F. 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J.; Semprini-Cesari, N.; Serfon, C.; Serin, L.; Serkin, L.; Sessa, M.; Seuster, R.; Severini, H.; Sfiligoj, T.; Sforza, F.; Sfyrla, A.; Shabalina, E.; Shaikh, N. W.; Shan, L. Y.; Shang, R.; Shank, J. T.; Shapiro, M.; Shatalov, P. B.; Shaw, K.; Shaw, S. M.; Shcherbakova, A.; Shehu, C. Y.; Shen, Y.; Sherwood, P.; Shi, L.; Shimizu, S.; Shimmin, C. O.; Shimojima, M.; Shirabe, S.; Shiyakova, M.; Shlomi, J.; Shmeleva, A.; Shoaleh Saadi, D.; Shochet, M. J.; Shojaii, S.; Shope, D. R.; Shrestha, S.; Shulga, E.; Shupe, M. A.; Sicho, P.; Sickles, A. M.; Sidebo, P. E.; Sideras Haddad, E.; Sidiropoulou, O.; Sidorov, D.; Sidoti, A.; Siegert, F.; Sijacki, Dj.; Silva, J.; Silverstein, S. B.; Simak, V.; Simic, Lj.; Simion, S.; Simioni, E.; Simmons, B.; Simon, M.; Sinervo, P.; Sinev, N. B.; Sioli, M.; Siragusa, G.; Siral, I.; Sivoklokov, S. Yu.; Sjölin, J.; Skinner, M. B.; Skubic, P.; Slater, M.; Slavicek, T.; Slawinska, M.; Sliwa, K.; Slovak, R.; Smakhtin, V.; Smart, B. H.; Smestad, L.; Smiesko, J.; Smirnov, S. Yu.; Smirnov, Y.; Smirnova, L. N.; Smirnova, O.; Smith, J. W.; Smith, M. N. K.; Smith, R. W.; Smizanska, M.; Smolek, K.; Snesarev, A. A.; Snyder, I. M.; Snyder, S.; Sobie, R.; Socher, F.; Soffer, A.; Soh, D. A.; Sokhrannyi, G.; Solans Sanchez, C. A.; Solar, M.; Soldatov, E. Yu.; Soldevila, U.; Solodkov, A. A.; Soloshenko, A.; Solovyanov, O. V.; Solovyev, V.; Sommer, P.; Son, H.; Song, H. Y.; Sopczak, A.; Sorin, V.; Sosa, D.; Sotiropoulou, C. L.; Soualah, R.; Soukharev, A. M.; South, D.; Sowden, B. C.; Spagnolo, S.; Spalla, M.; Spangenberg, M.; Spanò, F.; Sperlich, D.; Spettel, F.; Spieker, T. M.; Spighi, R.; Spigo, G.; Spiller, L. A.; Spousta, M.; St. Denis, R. D.; Stabile, A.; Stamen, R.; Stamm, S.; Stanecka, E.; Stanek, R. W.; Stanescu, C.; Stanitzki, M. M.; Stapnes, S.; Starchenko, E. A.; Stark, G. H.; Stark, J.; Stark, S. H.; Staroba, P.; Starovoitov, P.; Stärz, S.; Staszewski, R.; Steinberg, P.; Stelzer, B.; Stelzer, H. J.; Stelzer-Chilton, O.; Stenzel, H.; Stewart, G. A.; Stillings, J. A.; Stockton, M. C.; Stoebe, M.; Stoicea, G.; Stolte, P.; Stonjek, S.; Stradling, A. R.; Straessner, A.; Stramaglia, M. E.; Strandberg, J.; Strandberg, S.; Strandlie, A.; Strauss, M.; Strizenec, P.; Ströhmer, R.; Strom, D. M.; Stroynowski, R.; Strubig, A.; Stucci, S. A.; Stugu, B.; Styles, N. A.; Su, D.; Su, J.; Suchek, S.; Sugaya, Y.; Suk, M.; Sulin, V. V.; Sultansoy, S.; Sumida, T.; Sun, S.; Sun, X.; Suruliz, K.; Suster, C. J. E.; Sutton, M. R.; Suzuki, S.; Svatos, M.; Swiatlowski, M.; Swift, S. P.; Sykora, I.; Sykora, T.; Ta, D.; Tackmann, K.; Taenzer, J.; Taffard, A.; Tafirout, R.; Taiblum, N.; Takai, H.; Takashima, R.; Takeshita, T.; Takubo, Y.; Talby, M.; Talyshev, A. A.; Tanaka, J.; Tanaka, M.; Tanaka, R.; Tanaka, S.; Tanioka, R.; Tannenwald, B. B.; Tapia Araya, S.; Tapprogge, S.; Tarem, S.; Tartarelli, G. F.; Tas, P.; Tasevsky, M.; Tashiro, T.; Tassi, E.; Tavares Delgado, A.; Tayalati, Y.; Taylor, A. C.; Taylor, G. N.; Taylor, P. T. E.; Taylor, W.; Teixeira-Dias, P.; Temple, D.; Ten Kate, H.; Teng, P. K.; Teoh, J. J.; Tepel, F.; Terada, S.; Terashi, K.; Terron, J.; Terzo, S.; Testa, M.; Teuscher, R. J.; Theveneaux-Pelzer, T.; Thomas, J. P.; Thomas-Wilsker, J.; Thompson, P. D.; Thompson, A. S.; Thomsen, L. A.; Thomson, E.; Tibbetts, M. J.; Ticse Torres, R. E.; Tikhomirov, V. O.; Tikhonov, Yu. A.; Timoshenko, S.; Tipton, P.; Tisserant, S.; Todome, K.; Todorova-Nova, S.; Tojo, J.; Tokár, S.; Tokushuku, K.; Tolley, E.; Tomlinson, L.; Tomoto, M.; Tompkins, L.; Toms, K.; Tong, B.; Tornambe, P.; Torrence, E.; Torres, H.; Torró Pastor, E.; Toth, J.; Touchard, F.; Tovey, D. R.; Treado, C. J.; Trefzger, T.; Tricoli, A.; Trigger, I. M.; Trincaz-Duvoid, S.; Tripiana, M. F.; Trischuk, W.; Trocmé, B.; Trofymov, A.; Troncon, C.; Trottier-McDonald, M.; Trovatelli, M.; Truong, L.; Trzebinski, M.; Trzupek, A.; Tsang, K. W.; Tseng, J. C.-L.; Tsiareshka, P. V.; Tsipolitis, G.; Tsirintanis, N.; Tsiskaridze, S.; Tsiskaridze, V.; Tskhadadze, E. G.; Tsui, K. M.; Tsukerman, I. I.; Tsulaia, V.; Tsuno, S.; Tsybychev, D.; Tu, Y.; Tudorache, A.; Tudorache, V.; Tulbure, T. T.; Tuna, A. N.; Tupputi, S. A.; Turchikhin, S.; Turgeman, D.; Turk Cakir, I.; Turra, R.; Tuts, P. M.; Ucchielli, G.; Ueda, I.; Ughetto, M.; Ukegawa, F.; Unal, G.; Undrus, A.; Unel, G.; Ungaro, F. C.; Unno, Y.; Unverdorben, C.; Urban, J.; Urquijo, P.; Urrejola, P.; Usai, G.; Usui, J.; Vacavant, L.; Vacek, V.; Vachon, B.; Valderanis, C.; Valdes Santurio, E.; Valencic, N.; Valentinetti, S.; Valero, A.; Valéry, L.; Valkar, S.; Vallier, A.; Valls Ferrer, J. A.; Van Den Wollenberg, W.; van der Graaf, H.; van Eldik, N.; van Gemmeren, P.; Van Nieuwkoop, J.; van Vulpen, I.; van Woerden, M. C.; Vanadia, M.; Vandelli, W.; Vanguri, R.; Vaniachine, A.; Vankov, P.; Vardanyan, G.; Vari, R.; Varnes, E. W.; Varni, C.; Varol, T.; Varouchas, D.; Vartapetian, A.; Varvell, K. E.; Vasquez, J. G.; Vasquez, G. A.; Vazeille, F.; Vazquez Schroeder, T.; Veatch, J.; Veeraraghavan, V.; Veloce, L. M.; Veloso, F.; Veneziano, S.; Ventura, A.; Venturi, M.; Venturi, N.; Venturini, A.; Vercesi, V.; Verducci, M.; Verkerke, W.; Vermeulen, J. C.; Vetterli, M. C.; Viaux Maira, N.; Viazlo, O.; Vichou, I.; Vickey, T.; Vickey Boeriu, O. E.; Viehhauser, G. H. A.; Viel, S.; Vigani, L.; Villa, M.; Villaplana Perez, M.; Vilucchi, E.; Vincter, M. G.; Vinogradov, V. B.; Vishwakarma, A.; Vittori, C.; Vivarelli, I.; Vlachos, S.; Vlasak, M.; Vogel, M.; Vokac, P.; Volpi, G.; Volpi, M.; von der Schmitt, H.; von Toerne, E.; Vorobel, V.; Vorobev, K.; Vos, M.; Voss, R.; Vossebeld, J. H.; Vranjes, N.; Vranjes Milosavljevic, M.; Vrba, V.; Vreeswijk, M.; Vuillermet, R.; Vukotic, I.; Wagner, P.; Wagner, W.; Wahlberg, H.; Wahrmund, S.; Wakabayashi, J.; Walder, J.; Walker, R.; Walkowiak, W.; Wallangen, V.; Wang, C.; Wang, C.; Wang, F.; Wang, H.; Wang, H.; Wang, J.; Wang, J.; Wang, Q.; Wang, R.; Wang, S. M.; Wang, T.; Wang, W.; Wang, W.; Wanotayaroj, C.; Warburton, A.; Ward, C. P.; Wardrope, D. R.; Washbrook, A.; Watkins, P. M.; Watson, A. T.; Watson, M. F.; Watts, G.; Watts, S.; Waugh, B. M.; Webb, A. F.; Webb, S.; Weber, M. S.; Weber, S. W.; Weber, S. A.; Webster, J. S.; Weidberg, A. R.; Weinert, B.; Weingarten, J.; Weiser, C.; Weits, H.; Wells, P. S.; Wenaus, T.; Wengler, T.; Wenig, S.; Wermes, N.; Werner, M. D.; Werner, P.; Wessels, M.; Whalen, K.; Whallon, N. L.; Wharton, A. M.; White, A.; White, M. J.; White, R.; Whiteson, D.; Wickens, F. J.; Wiedenmann, W.; Wielers, M.; Wiglesworth, C.; Wiik-Fuchs, L. A. M.; Wildauer, A.; Wilk, F.; Wilkens, H. G.; Williams, H. H.; Williams, S.; Willis, C.; Willocq, S.; Wilson, J. A.; Wingerter-Seez, I.; Winklmeier, F.; Winston, O. J.; Winter, B. T.; Wittgen, M.; Wobisch, M.; Wolf, T. M. H.; Wolff, R.; Wolter, M. W.; Wolters, H.; Worm, S. D.; Wosiek, B. K.; Wotschack, J.; Woudstra, M. J.; Wozniak, K. W.; Wu, M.; Wu, S. L.; Wu, X.; Wu, Y.; Wyatt, T. R.; Wynne, B. M.; Xella, S.; Xi, Z.; Xia, L.; Xu, D.; Xu, L.; Yabsley, B.; Yacoob, S.; Yamaguchi, D.; Yamaguchi, Y.; Yamamoto, A.; Yamamoto, S.; Yamanaka, T.; Yamauchi, K.; Yamazaki, Y.; Yan, Z.; Yang, H.; Yang, H.; Yang, Y.; Yang, Z.; Yao, W.-M.; Yap, Y. C.; Yasu, Y.; Yatsenko, E.; Yau Wong, K. H.; Ye, J.; Ye, S.; Yeletskikh, I.; Yildirim, E.; Yorita, K.; Yoshihara, K.; Young, C.; Young, C. J. S.; Youssef, S.; Yu, D. R.; Yu, J.; Yu, J.; Yuan, L.; Yuen, S. P. Y.; Yusuff, I.; Zabinski, B.; Zacharis, G.; Zaidan, R.; Zaitsev, A. M.; Zakharchuk, N.; Zalieckas, J.; Zaman, A.; Zambito, S.; Zanzi, D.; Zeitnitz, C.; Zeman, M.; Zemla, A.; Zeng, J. C.; Zeng, Q.; Zenin, O.; Ženiš, T.; Zerwas, D.; Zhang, D.; Zhang, F.; Zhang, G.; Zhang, H.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, R.; Zhang, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, X.; Zhao, Y.; Zhao, Z.; Zhemchugov, A.; Zhong, J.; Zhou, B.; Zhou, C.; Zhou, L.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, N.; Zhu, C. G.; Zhu, H.; Zhu, J.; Zhu, Y.; Zhuang, X.; Zhukov, K.; Zibell, A.; Zieminska, D.; Zimine, N. I.; Zimmermann, C.; Zimmermann, S.; Zinonos, Z.; Zinser, M.; Ziolkowski, M.; Živković, L.; Zobernig, G.; Zoccoli, A.; Zou, R.; zur Nedden, M.; Zwalinski, L.

2018-02-01

A measurement of the mass of the W boson is presented based on proton-proton collision data recorded in 2011 at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC, and corresponding to 4.6 fb^{-1} of integrated luminosity. The selected data sample consists of 7.8× 10^6 candidates in the W→ μ ν channel and 5.9× 10^6 candidates in the W→ e ν channel. The W-boson mass is obtained from template fits to the reconstructed distributions of the charged lepton transverse momentum and of the W boson transverse mass in the electron and muon decay channels, yielding m_W = 80370&± 7 ( {stat.}) ± 11 ( {exp. syst.}) ± 14 ( {mod. syst.}) {MeV} = 80370± 19 {MeV}, where the first uncertainty is statistical, the second corresponds to the experimental systematic uncertainty, and the third to the physics-modelling systematic uncertainty. A measurement of the mass difference between the W^+ and W^- bosons yields m_{W^+}-m_{W^-} = - 29 ± 28 MeV.

SDRE controller for motion design of cable-suspended robot with uncertainties and moving obstacles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behboodi, Ahad; Salehi, Seyedmohammad

2017-10-01

In this paper an optimal control approach for nonlinear dynamical systems was proposed based on State Dependent Riccati Equation (SDRE) and its robustness against uncertainties is shown by simulation results. The proposed method was applied on a spatial six-cable suspended robot, which was designed to carry loads or perform different tasks in huge workspaces. Motion planning for cable-suspended robots in such a big workspace is subjected to uncertainties and obstacles. First, we emphasized the ability of SDRE to construct a systematic basis and efficient design of controller for wide variety of nonlinear dynamical systems. Then we showed how this systematic design improved the robustness of the system and facilitated the integration of motion planning techniques with the controller. In particular, obstacle avoidance technique based on artificial potential field (APF) can be easily combined with SDRE controller with efficient performance. Due to difficulties of exact solution for SDRE, an approximation method was used based on power series expansion. The efficiency and robustness of the SDRE controller was illustrated on a six-cable suspended robot with proper simulations.

Large Uncertainty in Estimating pCO2 From Carbonate Equilibria in Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golub, Malgorzata; Desai, Ankur R.; McKinley, Galen A.; Remucal, Christina K.; Stanley, Emily H.

2017-11-01

Most estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2) evasion from freshwaters rely on calculating partial pressure of aquatic CO2 (pCO2) from two out of three CO2-related parameters using carbonate equilibria. However, the pCO2 uncertainty has not been systematically evaluated across multiple lake types and equilibria. We quantified random errors in pH, dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, and temperature from the North Temperate Lakes Long-Term Ecological Research site in four lake groups across a broad gradient of chemical composition. These errors were propagated onto pCO2 calculated from three carbonate equilibria, and for overlapping observations, compared against uncertainties in directly measured pCO2. The empirical random errors in CO2-related parameters were mostly below 2% of their median values. Resulting random pCO2 errors ranged from ±3.7% to ±31.5% of the median depending on alkalinity group and choice of input parameter pairs. Temperature uncertainty had a negligible effect on pCO2. When compared with direct pCO2 measurements, all parameter combinations produced biased pCO2 estimates with less than one third of total uncertainty explained by random pCO2 errors, indicating that systematic uncertainty dominates over random error. Multidecadal trend of pCO2 was difficult to reconstruct from uncertain historical observations of CO2-related parameters. Given poor precision and accuracy of pCO2 estimates derived from virtually any combination of two CO2-related parameters, we recommend direct pCO2 measurements where possible. To achieve consistently robust estimates of CO2 emissions from freshwater components of terrestrial carbon balances, future efforts should focus on improving accuracy and precision of CO2-related parameters (including direct pCO2) measurements and associated pCO2 calculations.

An MCMC determination of the primordial helium abundance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aver, Erik; Olive, Keith A.; Skillman, Evan D.

2012-04-01

Spectroscopic observations of the chemical abundances in metal-poor H II regions provide an independent method for estimating the primordial helium abundance. H II regions are described by several physical parameters such as electron density, electron temperature, and reddening, in addition to y, the ratio of helium to hydrogen. It had been customary to estimate or determine self-consistently these parameters to calculate y. Frequentist analyses of the parameter space have been shown to be successful in these parameter determinations, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques have proven to be very efficient in sampling this parameter space. Nevertheless, accurate determination of the primordial helium abundance from observations of H II regions is constrained by both systematic and statistical uncertainties. In an attempt to better reduce the latter, and continue to better characterize the former, we apply MCMC methods to the large dataset recently compiled by Izotov, Thuan, & Stasińska (2007). To improve the reliability of the determination, a high quality dataset is needed. In pursuit of this, a variety of cuts are explored. The efficacy of the He I λ4026 emission line as a constraint on the solutions is first examined, revealing the introduction of systematic bias through its absence. As a clear measure of the quality of the physical solution, a χ2 analysis proves instrumental in the selection of data compatible with the theoretical model. Nearly two-thirds of the observations fall outside a standard 95% confidence level cut, which highlights the care necessary in selecting systems and warrants further investigation into potential deficiencies of the model or data. In addition, the method also allows us to exclude systems for which parameter estimations are statistical outliers. As a result, the final selected dataset gains in reliability and exhibits improved consistency. Regression to zero metallicity yields Yp = 0.2534 ± 0.0083, in broad agreement with the WMAP result. The inclusion of more observations shows promise for further reducing the uncertainty, but more high quality spectra are required.

Adiabatic release measurements in aluminum between 400 and 1200 GPa: Characterization of aluminum as a shock standard in the multimegabar regime

DOE PAGES

Knudson, Marcus D.; Desjarlais, Michael P.; Pribram-Jones, Aurora

2015-06-15

Aluminum has been used prolifically as an impedance matching standard in the multimegabar regime (1 Mbar = 100 GPa), particularly in nuclear driven, early laser driven, and early magnetically driven flyer plate experiments. The accuracy of these impedance matching measurements depends upon the knowledge of both the Hugoniot and release or reshock response of aluminum. Here, we present the results of several adiabatic release measurements of aluminum from ~400–1200 GPa states along the principal Hugoniot using full density polymethylpentene (commonly known as TPX), and both ~190 and ~110 mg/cc silica aerogel standards. Additionally, these data were analyzed within the frameworkmore » of a simple, analytical model that was motivated by a first-principles molecular dynamics investigation into the release response of aluminum, as well as by a survey of the release response determined from several tabular equations of state for aluminum. Combined, this theoretical and experimental study provides a method to perform impedance matching calculations without the need to appeal to any tabular equation of state for aluminum. Furthermore, as an analytical model, this method allows for propagation of all uncertainty, including the random measurement uncertainties and the systematic uncertainties of the Hugoniot and release response of aluminum. This work establishes aluminum for use as a high-precision standard for impedance matching in the multimegabar regime.« less

Measurement of the [Formula: see text] production cross-section in proton-proton collisions via the decay [Formula: see text].

PubMed

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Göbel, C; Golubkov, D; Golutvin, A; Gomes, A; Gotti, C; Grabalosa Gándara, M; Graciani Diaz, R; Granado Cardoso, L A; Graugés, E; Graziani, G; Grecu, A; Greening, E; Gregson, S; Griffith, P; Grillo, L; Grünberg, O; Gui, B; Gushchin, E; Guz, Yu; Gys, T; Hadjivasiliou, C; Haefeli, G; Haen, C; Haines, S C; Hall, S; Hamilton, B; Hampson, T; Han, X; Hansmann-Menzemer, S; Harnew, N; Harnew, S T; Harrison, J; He, J; Head, T; Heijne, V; Hennessy, K; Henrard, P; Henry, L; Hernando Morata, J A; van Herwijnen, E; Heß, M; Hicheur, A; Hill, D; Hoballah, M; Hombach, C; Hulsbergen, W; Hunt, P; Hussain, N; Hutchcroft, D; Hynds, D; Idzik, M; Ilten, P; Jacobsson, R; Jaeger, A; Jalocha, J; Jans, E; Jaton, P; Jawahery, A; Jing, F; John, M; Johnson, D; Jones, C R; Joram, C; Jost, B; Jurik, N; Kaballo, M; Kandybei, S; Kanso, W; Karacson, M; Karbach, T M; Karodia, S; Kelsey, M; Kenyon, I R; Ketel, T; Khanji, B; Khurewathanakul, C; Klaver, S; Klimaszewski, K; Kochebina, O; Kolpin, M; Komarov, I; Koopman, R F; Koppenburg, P; Korolev, M; Kozlinskiy, A; Kravchuk, L; Kreplin, K; Kreps, M; Krocker, G; Krokovny, P; Kruse, F; Kucewicz, W; Kucharczyk, M; Kudryavtsev, V; Kurek, K; Kvaratskheliya, T; La Thi, V N; Lacarrere, D; Lafferty, G; Lai, A; Lambert, D; Lambert, R W; Lanfranchi, G; Langenbruch, C; Langhans, B; Latham, T; Lazzeroni, C; Le Gac, R; van Leerdam, J; Lees, J-P; Lefèvre, R; Leflat, A; Lefrançois, J; Leo, S; Leroy, O; Lesiak, T; Leverington, B; Li, Y; Likhomanenko, T; Liles, M; Lindner, R; Linn, C; Lionetto, F; Liu, B; Lohn, S; Longstaff, I; Lopes, J H; Lopez-March, N; Lowdon, P; Lucchesi, D; Luo, H; Lupato, A; Luppi, E; Lupton, O; Machefert, F; Machikhiliyan, I V; Maciuc, F; Maev, O; Malde, S; Malinin, A; Manca, G; Mancinelli, G; Mapelli, A; Maratas, J; Marchand, J F; Marconi, U; Marin Benito, C; Marino, P; Märki, R; Marks, J; Martellotti, G; Martens, A; Sánchez, A Martín; Martinelli, M; Martinez Santos, D; Martinez Vidal, F; Martins Tostes, D; Massafferri, A; Matev, R; Mathe, Z; Matteuzzi, C; Mazurov, A; McCann, M; McCarthy, J; McNab, A; McNulty, R; McSkelly, B; Meadows, B; Meier, F; Meissner, M; Merk, M; Milanes, D A; Minard, M-N; Moggi, N; Molina Rodriguez, J; Monteil, S; Morandin, M; Morawski, P; Mordà, A; Morello, M J; Moron, J; Morris, A-B; Mountain, R; Muheim, F; Müller, K; Mussini, M; Muster, B; Naik, P; Nakada, T; Nandakumar, R; Nasteva, I; Needham, M; Neri, N; Neubert, S; Neufeld, N; Neuner, M; Nguyen, A D; Nguyen, T D; Nguyen-Mau, C; Nicol, M; Niess, V; Niet, R; Nikitin, N; Nikodem, T; Novoselov, A; O'Hanlon, D P; Oblakowska-Mucha, A; Obraztsov, V; Oggero, S; Ogilvy, S; Okhrimenko, O; Oldeman, R; Onderwater, G; Orlandea, M; Otalora Goicochea, J M; Owen, P; Oyanguren, A; Pal, B K; Palano, A; Palombo, F; Palutan, M; Panman, J; Papanestis, A; Pappagallo, M; Pappalardo, L L; Parkes, C; Parkinson, C J; Passaleva, G; Patel, G D; Patel, M; Patrignani, C; Alvarez, A Pazos; Pearce, A; Pellegrino, A; Pepe Altarelli, M; Perazzini, S; Trigo, E Perez; Perret, P; Perrin-Terrin, M; Pescatore, L; Pesen, E; Petridis, K; Petrolini, A; Picatoste Olloqui, E; Pietrzyk, B; Pilař, T; Pinci, D; Pistone, A; Playfer, S; Plo Casasus, M; Polci, F; Poluektov, A; Polycarpo, E; Popov, A; Popov, D; Popovici, B; Potterat, C; Price, E; Price, J D; Prisciandaro, J; Pritchard, A; Prouve, C; Pugatch, V; Puig Navarro, A; Punzi, G; Qian, W; Rachwal, B; Rademacker, J H; Rakotomiaramanana, B; Rama, M; Rangel, M S; Raniuk, I; Rauschmayr, N; Raven, G; Redi, F; Reichert, S; Reid, M M; Dos Reis, A C; Ricciardi, S; Richards, S; Rihl, M; Rinnert, K; Rives Molina, V; Robbe, P; Rodrigues, A B; Rodrigues, E; Rodriguez Perez, P; Roiser, S; Romanovsky, V; Romero Vidal, A; Rotondo, M; Rouvinet, J; Ruf, T; Ruiz, H; Ruiz Valls, P; Saborido Silva, J J; Sagidova, N; Sail, P; Saitta, B; Salustino Guimaraes, V; Sanchez Mayordomo, C; Sanmartin Sedes, B; Santacesaria, R; Santamarina Rios, C; Santovetti, E; Sarti, A; Satriano, C; Satta, A; Saunders, D M; Savrie, M; Savrina, D; Schiller, M; Schindler, H; Schlupp, M; Schmelling, M; Schmidt, B; Schneider, O; Schopper, A; Schune, M-H; Schwemmer, R; Sciascia, B; Sciubba, A; Seco, M; Semennikov, A; Sepp, I; Serra, N; Serrano, J; Sestini, L; Seyfert, P; Shapkin, M; Shapoval, I; Shcheglov, Y; Shears, T; Shekhtman, L; Shevchenko, V; Shires, A; Silva Coutinho, R; Simi, G; Sirendi, M; Skidmore, N; Skwarnicki, T; Smith, N A; Smith, E; Smith, E; Smith, J; Smith, M; Snoek, H; Sokoloff, M D; Soler, F J P; Soomro, F; Souza, D; De Paula, B Souza; Spaan, B; Sparkes, A; Spradlin, P; Sridharan, S; Stagni, F; Stahl, M; Stahl, S; Steinkamp, O; Stenyakin, O; Stevenson, S; Stoica, S; Stone, S; Storaci, B; Stracka, S; Straticiuc, M; Straumann, U; Stroili, R; Subbiah, V K; Sun, L; Sutcliffe, W; Swientek, K; Swientek, S; Syropoulos, V; Szczekowski, M; Szczypka, P; Szilard, D; Szumlak, T; T'Jampens, S; Teklishyn, M; Tellarini, G; Teubert, F; Thomas, C; Thomas, E; van Tilburg, J; Tisserand, V; Tobin, M; Tolk, S; Tomassetti, L; Tonelli, D; Topp-Joergensen, S; Torr, N; Tournefier, E; Tourneur, S; Tran, M T; Tresch, M; Tsaregorodtsev, A; Tsopelas, P; Tuning, N; Ubeda Garcia, M; Ukleja, A; Ustyuzhanin, A; Uwer, U; Vacca, C; Vagnoni, V; Valenti, G; Vallier, A; Vazquez Gomez, R; Vazquez Regueiro, P; Vázquez Sierra, C; Vecchi, S; Velthuis, J J; Veltri, M; Veneziano, G; Vesterinen, M; Viaud, B; Vieira, D; Vieites Diaz, M; Vilasis-Cardona, X; Vollhardt, A; Volyanskyy, D; Voong, D; Vorobyev, A; Vorobyev, V; Voß, C; Voss, H; de Vries, J A; Waldi, R; Wallace, C; Wallace, R; Walsh, J; Wandernoth, S; Wang, J; Ward, D R; Watson, N K; Websdale, D; Whitehead, M; Wicht, J; Wiedner, D; Wilkinson, G; Williams, M P; Williams, M; Wilschut, H W; Wilson, F F; Wimberley, J; Wishahi, J; Wislicki, W; Witek, M; Wormser, G; Wotton, S A; Wright, S; Wyllie, K; Xie, Y; Xing, Z; Xu, Z; Yang, Z; Yuan, X; Yushchenko, O; Zangoli, M; Zavertyaev, M; Zhang, L; Zhang, W C; Zhang, Y; Zhelezov, A; Zhokhov, A; Zhong, L; Zvyagin, A

The production of the [Formula: see text] state in proton-proton collisions is probed via its decay to the [Formula: see text] final state with the LHCb detector, in the rapidity range [Formula: see text] and in the meson transverse-momentum range [Formula: see text]. The cross-section for prompt production of [Formula: see text] mesons relative to the prompt [Formula: see text] cross-section is measured, for the first time, to be [Formula: see text] at a centre-of-mass energy [Formula: see text] using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 0.7 fb[Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text] at [Formula: see text] using 2.0 fb[Formula: see text]. The uncertainties quoted are, in order, statistical, systematic, and that on the ratio of branching fractions of the [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] decays to the [Formula: see text] final state. In addition, the inclusive branching fraction of [Formula: see text]-hadron decays into [Formula: see text] mesons is measured, for the first time, to be [Formula: see text], where the third uncertainty includes also the uncertainty on the [Formula: see text] inclusive branching fraction from [Formula: see text]-hadron decays. The difference between the [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] meson masses is determined to be [Formula: see text].

Preparatory studies for the WFIRST supernova cosmology measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perlmutter, Saul

In the context of the WFIRST-AFTA Science Definition Team we developed a first version of a supernova program, described in the WFIRST-AFTA SDT report. This program uses the imager to discover supernova candidates and an Integral Field Spectrograph (IFS) to obtain spectrophotometric light curves and higher signal to noise spectra of the supernovae near peak to better characterize the supernovae and thus minimize systematic errors. While this program was judged a robust one, and the estimates of the sensitivity to the cosmological parameters were felt to be reliable, due to limitation of time the analysis was clearly limited in depth on a number of issues. The goal of this proposal is to further develop this program and refine the estimates of the sensitivities to the cosmological parameters using more sophisticated systematic uncertainty models and covariance error matrices that fold in more realistic data concerning observed populations of SNe Ia as well as more realistic instrument models. We propose to develop analysis algorithms and approaches that are needed to build, optimize, and refine the WFIRST instrument and program requirements to accomplish the best supernova cosmology measurements possible. We plan to address the following: a) Use realistic Supernova populations, subclasses and population drift. One bothersome uncertainty with the supernova technique is the possibility of population drift with redshift. We are in a unique position to characterize and mitigate such effects using the spectrophotometric time series of real Type Ia supernovae from the Nearby Supernova Factory (SNfactory). Each supernova in this sample has global galaxy measurements as well as additional local environment information derived from the IFS spectroscopy. We plan to develop methods of coping with this issue, e.g., by selecting similar subsamples of supernovae and allowing additional model flexibility, in order to reduce systematic uncertainties. These studies will allow us to tune details, like the wavelength coverage and S/N requirements, of the WFIRST IFS to capitalize on these systematic error reduction methods. b) Supernova extraction and host galaxy subtractions. The underlying light of the host galaxy must be subtracted from the supernova images making up the lightcurves. Using the IFS to provide the lightcurve points via spectrophotometry requires the subtraction of a reference spectrum of the galaxy taken after the supernova light has faded to a negligible level. We plan to apply the expertise obtained from the SNfactory to develop galaxy background procedures that minimize the systematic errors introduced by this step in the analysis. c) Instrument calibration and ground to space cross calibration. Calibrating the entire supernova sample will be a challenge as no standard stars exist that span the range of magnitudes and wavelengths relevant to the WFIRST survey. Linking the supernova measurements to the relatively brighter standards will require several links. WFIRST will produce the high redshift sample, but the nearby supernova to anchor the Hubble diagram will have to come from ground based observations. Developing algorithms to carry out the cross calibration of these two samples to the required one percent level will be an important goal of our proposal. An integral part of this calibration will be to remove all instrumental signatures and to develop unbiased measurement techniques starting at the pixel level. We then plan to pull the above studies together in a synthesis to produce a correlated error matrix. We plan to develop a Fisher Matrix based model to evaluate the correlated error matrix due to the various systematic errors discussed above. A realistic error model will allow us to carry out a more reliable estimates of the eventual errors on the measurement of the cosmological parameters, as well as serve as a means of optimizing and fine tuning the requirements for the instruments and survey strategies.

Evaluating Precipitation from Orbital Data Products of TRMM and GPM over the Indian Subcontinent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayaluxmi, I.; Kumar, D. N.

2015-12-01

The rapidly growing records of microwave based precipitation data made available from various earth observation satellites have instigated a pressing need towards evaluating the associated uncertainty which arise from different sources such as retrieval error, spatial/temporal sampling error and sensor dependent error. Pertaining to microwave remote sensing, most of the studies in literature focus on gridded data products, fewer studies exist on evaluating the uncertainty inherent in orbital data products. Evaluation of the latter are essential as they potentially cause large uncertainties during real time flood forecasting studies especially at the watershed scale. The present study evaluates the uncertainty of precipitation data derived from the orbital data products of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite namely the 2A12, 2A25 and 2B31 products. Case study results over the flood prone basin of Mahanadi, India, are analyzed for precipitation uncertainty through these three facets viz., a) Uncertainty quantification using the volumetric metrics from the contingency table [Aghakouchak and Mehran 2014] b) Error characterization using additive and multiplicative error models c) Error decomposition to identify systematic and random errors d) Comparative assessment with the orbital data from GPM mission. The homoscedastic random errors from multiplicative error models justify a better representation of precipitation estimates by the 2A12 algorithm. It can be concluded that although the radiometer derived 2A12 precipitation data is known to suffer from many sources of uncertainties, spatial analysis over the case study region of India testifies that they are in excellent agreement with the reference estimates for the data period considered [Indu and Kumar 2015]. References A. AghaKouchak and A. Mehran (2014), Extended contingency table: Performance metrics for satellite observations and climate model simulations, Water Resources Research, vol. 49, 7144-7149; J. Indu and D. Nagesh Kumar (2015), Evaluation of Precipitation Retrievals from Orbital Data Products of TRMM over a Subtropical basin in India, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, in press, doi: 10.1109/TGRS.2015.2440338.

The clustering of galaxies in the SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: testing gravity with redshift space distortions using the power spectrum multipoles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beutler, Florian; Saito, Shun; Seo, Hee-Jong; Brinkmann, Jon; Dawson, Kyle S.; Eisenstein, Daniel J.; Font-Ribera, Andreu; Ho, Shirley; McBride, Cameron K.; Montesano, Francesco; Percival, Will J.; Ross, Ashley J.; Ross, Nicholas P.; Samushia, Lado; Schlegel, David J.; Sánchez, Ariel G.; Tinker, Jeremy L.; Weaver, Benjamin A.

2014-09-01

We analyse the anisotropic clustering of the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) CMASS Data Release 11 (DR11) sample, which consists of 690 827 galaxies in the redshift range 0.43 < z < 0.7 and has a sky coverage of 8498 deg2. We perform our analysis in Fourier space using a power spectrum estimator suggested by Yamamoto et al. We measure the multipole power spectra in a self-consistent manner for the first time in the sense that we provide a proper way to treat the survey window function and the integral constraint, without the commonly used assumption of an isotropic power spectrum and without the need to split the survey into subregions. The main cosmological signals exploited in our analysis are the baryon acoustic oscillations and the signal of redshift space distortions, both of which are distorted by the Alcock-Paczynski effect. Together, these signals allow us to constrain the distance ratio DV(zeff)/rs(zd) = 13.89 ± 0.18, the Alcock-Paczynski parameter FAP(zeff) = 0.679 ± 0.031 and the growth rate of structure f (zeff)σ8(zeff) = 0.419 ± 0.044 at the effective redshift zeff = 0.57. We emphasize that our constraints are robust against possible systematic uncertainties. In order to ensure this, we perform a detailed systematics study against CMASS mock galaxy catalogues and N-body simulations. We find that such systematics will lead to 3.1 per cent uncertainty for fσ8 if we limit our fitting range to k = 0.01-0.20 h Mpc-1, where the statistical uncertainty is expected to be three times larger. We did not find significant systematic uncertainties for DV/rs or FAP. Combining our data set with Planck to test General Relativity (GR) through the simple γ-parametrization, where the growth rate is given by f(z) = Ω ^{γ }_m(z), reveals a ˜2σ tension between the data and the prediction by GR. The tension between our result and GR can be traced back to a tension in the clustering amplitude σ8 between CMASS and Planck.

Bayesian power spectrum inference with foreground and target contamination treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jasche, J.; Lavaux, G.

2017-10-01

This work presents a joint and self-consistent Bayesian treatment of various foreground and target contaminations when inferring cosmological power spectra and three-dimensional density fields from galaxy redshift surveys. This is achieved by introducing additional block-sampling procedures for unknown coefficients of foreground and target contamination templates to the previously presented ARES framework for Bayesian large-scale structure analyses. As a result, the method infers jointly and fully self-consistently three-dimensional density fields, cosmological power spectra, luminosity-dependent galaxy biases, noise levels of the respective galaxy distributions, and coefficients for a set of a priori specified foreground templates. In addition, this fully Bayesian approach permits detailed quantification of correlated uncertainties amongst all inferred quantities and correctly marginalizes over observational systematic effects. We demonstrate the validity and efficiency of our approach in obtaining unbiased estimates of power spectra via applications to realistic mock galaxy observations that are subject to stellar contamination and dust extinction. While simultaneously accounting for galaxy biases and unknown noise levels, our method reliably and robustly infers three-dimensional density fields and corresponding cosmological power spectra from deep galaxy surveys. Furthermore, our approach correctly accounts for joint and correlated uncertainties between unknown coefficients of foreground templates and the amplitudes of the power spectrum. This effect amounts to correlations and anti-correlations of up to 10 per cent across wide ranges in Fourier space.

Cognitive remediation in schizophrenia: A methodological appraisal of systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

PubMed

Bryce, Shayden; Sloan, Elise; Lee, Stuart; Ponsford, Jennie; Rossell, Susan

2016-04-01

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses are a primary source of evidence when evaluating the benefit(s) of cognitive remediation (CR) in schizophrenia. These studies are designed to rigorously synthesize scientific literature; however, cannot be assumed to be of high methodological quality. The aims of this report were to: 1) review the use of systematic reviews and meta-analyses regarding CR in schizophrenia; 2) conduct a systematic methodological appraisal of published reports examining the benefits of this intervention on core outcome domains; and 3) compare the correspondence between methodological and reporting quality. Electronic databases were searched for relevant articles. Twenty-one reviews met inclusion criteria and were scored according to the AMSTAR checklist-a validated scale of methodological quality. Five meta-analyses were also scored according to PRISMA statement to compare 'quality of conduct' with 'quality of reporting'. Most systematic reviews and meta-analyses shared strengths and fell within a 'medium' level of methodological quality. Nevertheless, there were consistent areas of potential weakness that were not addressed by most reviews. These included the lack of protocol registration, uncertainty regarding independent data extraction and consensus procedures, and the minimal assessment of publication bias. Moreover, quality of conduct may not necessarily parallel quality of reporting, suggesting that consideration of these methods independently may be important. Reviews concerning CR for schizophrenia are a valuable source of evidence. However, the methodological quality of these reports may require additional consideration. Enhancing quality of conduct is essential for enabling research literature to be interpreted with confidence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detailed Uncertainty Analysis for Ares I Ascent Aerodynamics Wind Tunnel Database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hemsch, Michael J.; Hanke, Jeremy L.; Walker, Eric L.; Houlden, Heather P.

2008-01-01

A detailed uncertainty analysis for the Ares I ascent aero 6-DOF wind tunnel database is described. While the database itself is determined using only the test results for the latest configuration, the data used for the uncertainty analysis comes from four tests on two different configurations at the Boeing Polysonic Wind Tunnel in St. Louis and the Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel at NASA Langley Research Center. Four major error sources are considered: (1) systematic errors from the balance calibration curve fits and model + balance installation, (2) run-to-run repeatability, (3) boundary-layer transition fixing, and (4) tunnel-to-tunnel reproducibility.

OT1_ebergin_5: A Systematic Survery of the Water D to H Ratio in Hot Molecular Cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergin, E.

2010-07-01

The D/H ratio of water and the enrichment of HDO relative to H2O in comets, oceans, and interstellar water vapor, has been posited as one of the primary links between chemistry in the cold (T = 10-20 K) dense interstellar medium (ISM) and chemistry in the Solar Nebula. However, there are only ~10 measurements of HDO/H2O, even in hot (T > 100 K) molecular cores, which have the most favorable chemistry (due to fossil evaporation of D-enriched ices) and excitation. In addition the existing measurements have a wide range of uncertainty, making it impossible to discern the presence of source-to-source variations, which could hint at the origin of deuterium enrichments in the dense ISM. We propose here to change this statistic with a systematic survey of HDO and H2O in a sample of 20 hot molecular cores spanning a two order of magnitude range in mass and luminosity. This will increase the number of known water D/H ratios by ~200%. This program is unique in scope for Herschel and requires the uniformity in calibration and high spectral resolution offered by the HIFI instrument. With the stability of HIFI we will be able to derive D/H ratios with significantly less uncertainty. Our observations will be combined with theoretical chemical models to explore the statistics offered by this sample. By looking at a large number of objects with a range of conditions we aim to unlock the secrets of water deuteration in the interstellar space.

Strong nonadditivity as a key structure-activity relationship feature: distinguishing structural changes from assay artifacts.

PubMed

Kramer, Christian; Fuchs, Julian E; Liedl, Klaus R

2015-03-23

Nonadditivity in protein-ligand affinity data represents highly instructive structure-activity relationship (SAR) features that indicate structural changes and have the potential to guide rational drug design. At the same time, nonadditivity is a challenge for both basic SAR analysis as well as many ligand-based data analysis techniques such as Free-Wilson Analysis and Matched Molecular Pair analysis, since linear substituent contribution models inherently assume additivity and thus do not work in such cases. While structural causes for nonadditivity have been analyzed anecdotally, no systematic approaches to interpret and use nonadditivity prospectively have been developed yet. In this contribution, we lay the statistical framework for systematic analysis of nonadditivity in a SAR series. First, we develop a general metric to quantify nonadditivity. Then, we demonstrate the non-negligible impact of experimental uncertainty that creates apparent nonadditivity, and we introduce techniques to handle experimental uncertainty. Finally, we analyze public SAR data sets for strong nonadditivity and use recourse to the original publications and available X-ray structures to find structural explanations for the nonadditivity observed. We find that all cases of strong nonadditivity (ΔΔpKi and ΔΔpIC50 > 2.0 log units) with sufficient structural information to generate reasonable hypothesis involve changes in binding mode. With the appropriate statistical basis, nonadditivity analysis offers a variety of new attempts for various areas in computer-aided drug design, including the validation of scoring functions and free energy perturbation approaches, binding pocket classification, and novel features in SAR analysis tools.

Using spatial uncertainty to manipulate the size of the attention focus.

PubMed

Huang, Dan; Xue, Linyan; Wang, Xin; Chen, Yao

2016-09-01

Preferentially processing behaviorally relevant information is vital for primate survival. In visuospatial attention studies, manipulating the spatial extent of attention focus is an important question. Although many studies have claimed to successfully adjust attention field size by either varying the uncertainty about the target location (spatial uncertainty) or adjusting the size of the cue orienting the attention focus, no systematic studies have assessed and compared the effectiveness of these methods. We used a multiple cue paradigm with 2.5° and 7.5° rings centered around a target position to measure the cue size effect, while the spatial uncertainty levels were manipulated by changing the number of cueing positions. We found that spatial uncertainty had a significant impact on reaction time during target detection, while the cue size effect was less robust. We also carefully varied the spatial scope of potential target locations within a small or large region and found that this amount of variation in spatial uncertainty can also significantly influence target detection speed. Our results indicate that adjusting spatial uncertainty is more effective than varying cue size when manipulating attention field size.

Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P. J.; Rötter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P. K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A. J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, R.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L. A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.; Olesen, J. E.; Osborne, T. M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M. A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J. W.; Williams, J. R.; Wolf, J.

2013-09-01

Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models are difficult. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development andpolicymaking.

Degeneracy relations in QCD and the equivalence of two systematic all-orders methods for setting the renormalization scale

DOE PAGES

Bi, Huan -Yu; Wu, Xing -Gang; Ma, Yang; ...

2015-06-26

The Principle of Maximum Conformality (PMC) eliminates QCD renormalization scale-setting uncertainties using fundamental renormalization group methods. The resulting scale-fixed pQCD predictions are independent of the choice of renormalization scheme and show rapid convergence. The coefficients of the scale-fixed couplings are identical to the corresponding conformal series with zero β-function. Two all-orders methods for systematically implementing the PMC-scale setting procedure for existing high order calculations are discussed in this article. One implementation is based on the PMC-BLM correspondence (PMC-I); the other, more recent, method (PMC-II) uses the R δ-scheme, a systematic generalization of the minimal subtraction renormalization scheme. Both approaches satisfymore » all of the principles of the renormalization group and lead to scale-fixed and scheme-independent predictions at each finite order. In this work, we show that PMC-I and PMC-II scale-setting methods are in practice equivalent to each other. We illustrate this equivalence for the four-loop calculations of the annihilation ratio R e+e– and the Higgs partial width I'(H→bb¯). Both methods lead to the same resummed (‘conformal’) series up to all orders. The small scale differences between the two approaches are reduced as additional renormalization group {β i}-terms in the pQCD expansion are taken into account. In addition, we show that special degeneracy relations, which underly the equivalence of the two PMC approaches and the resulting conformal features of the pQCD series, are in fact general properties of non-Abelian gauge theory.« less

The new g-2 experiment at Fermilab

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anastasi, A.

2017-04-01

There is a long standing discrepancy between the Standard Model prediction for the muon g-2 and the value measured by the Brookhaven E821 Experiment. At present the discrepancy stands at about three standard deviations, with an uncertainty dominated by the theoretical error. Two new proposals - at Fermilab and J-PARC - plan to improve the experimental uncertainty by a factor of 4, and it is expected that there will be a significant reduction in the uncertainty of the Standard Model prediction. I will review the status of the planned experiment at Fermilab, E989, which will analyse 21 times more muons than the BNL experiment and discuss how the systematic uncertainty will be reduced by a factor of 3 such that a precision of 0.14 ppm can be achieved.

Robust control of the DC-DC boost converter based on the uncertainty and disturbance estimator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oucheriah, Said

2017-11-01

In this paper, a robust non-linear controller based on the uncertainty and disturbance estimator (UDE) scheme is successfully developed and implemented for the output voltage regulation of the DC-DC boost converter. System uncertainties, external disturbances and unknown non-linear dynamics are lumped as a signal that is accurately estimated using a low-pass filter and their effects are cancelled by the controller. This methodology forms the basis of the UDE-based controller. A simple procedure is also developed that systematically determines the parameters of the controller to meet certain specifications. Using simulation, the effectiveness of the proposed controller is compared against the sliding-mode control (SMC). Experimental tests also show that the proposed controller is robust to system uncertainties, large input and load perturbations.

Constituent quarks and systematic errors in mid-rapidity charged multiplicity dN ch/dη distributions

DOE PAGES

Tannenbaum, M. J.

2018-01-10

Centrality definition in A + A collisions at colliders such as RHIC and LHC suffers from a correlated systematic uncertainty caused by the efficiency of detecting a p + p collision (50 ± 5% for PHENIX at RHIC). In A + A collisions where centrality is measured by the number of nucleon collisions, N coll, or the number of nucleon participants, N part, or the number of constituent quark participants, N qp, the error in the efficiency of the primary interaction trigger (Beam–Beam Counters) for a p + p collision leads to a correlated systematic uncertainty in N part, Nmore » coll or N qp which reduces binomially as the A + A collisions become more central. If this is not correctly accounted for in projections of A + A to p + p collisions, then mistaken conclusions can result. Finally, a recent example is presented in whether the mid-rapidity charged multiplicity per constituent quark participant d(N ch/dη)/N qp in Au + Au at RHIC was the same as the value in p + p collisions.« less

Constituent quarks and systematic errors in mid-rapidity charged multiplicity dN ch/dη distributions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tannenbaum, M. J.

Centrality definition in A + A collisions at colliders such as RHIC and LHC suffers from a correlated systematic uncertainty caused by the efficiency of detecting a p + p collision (50 ± 5% for PHENIX at RHIC). In A + A collisions where centrality is measured by the number of nucleon collisions, N coll, or the number of nucleon participants, N part, or the number of constituent quark participants, N qp, the error in the efficiency of the primary interaction trigger (Beam–Beam Counters) for a p + p collision leads to a correlated systematic uncertainty in N part, Nmore » coll or N qp which reduces binomially as the A + A collisions become more central. If this is not correctly accounted for in projections of A + A to p + p collisions, then mistaken conclusions can result. Finally, a recent example is presented in whether the mid-rapidity charged multiplicity per constituent quark participant d(N ch/dη)/N qp in Au + Au at RHIC was the same as the value in p + p collisions.« less

NACRE II: an update of the NACRE compilation of charged-particle-induced thermonuclear reaction rates for nuclei with mass number A<16

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Y.; Takahashi, K.; Goriely, S.; Arnould, M.; Ohta, M.; Utsunomiya, H.

2013-11-01

An update of the NACRE compilation [3] is presented. This new compilation, referred to as NACRE II, reports thermonuclear reaction rates for 34 charged-particle induced, two-body exoergic reactions on nuclides with mass number A<16, of which fifteen are particle-transfer reactions and the rest radiative capture reactions. When compared with NACRE, NACRE II features in particular (1) the addition to the experimental data collected in NACRE of those reported later, preferentially in the major journals of the field by early 2013, and (2) the adoption of potential models as the primary tool for extrapolation to very low energies of astrophysical S-factors, with a systematic evaluation of uncertainties.

Exploring the Efficacy and Limitations of Shock-cooling Models: New Analysis of Type II Supernovae Observed by the Kepler Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubin, Adam; Gal-Yam, Avishay

2017-10-01

Modern transient surveys have begun discovering and following supernovae (SNe) shortly after first light—providing systematic measurements of the rise of Type II SNe. We explore how analytic models of early shock-cooling emission from core-collapse SNe can constrain the progenitor’s radius, explosion velocity, and local host extinction. We simulate synthetic photometry in several realistic observing scenarios; assuming the models describe the typical explosions well, we find that ultraviolet observations can constrain the progenitor’s radius to a statistical uncertainty of ±10%-15%, with a systematic uncertainty of ±20%. With these observations the local host extinction (A V ) can be constrained to a factor of two and the shock velocity to ±5% with a systematic uncertainty of ±10%. We also reanalyze the SN light curves presented by Garnavich et al. (2016) and find that KSN 2011a can be fit by a blue supergiant model with a progenitor radius of {R}s< 7.7+8.8({stat})+1.9({sys}) {R}⊙ , while KSN 2011d can be fit with a red supergiant model with a progenitor radius of {R}s={111}-21({stat)-1({sys})}+89({stat)+49({sys})} {R}⊙ . Our results do not agree with those of Garnavich et al. Moreover, we re-evaluate their claims and find that there is no statistically significant evidence for a shock-breakout flare in the light curve of KSN 2011d.

Error Detection and Recovery for Robot Motion Planning with Uncertainty.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-07-01

plans for these problems . This intuition-which is a heuristic claim, so the reader is advised to proceed with caution--should be verified or disproven...that might work. but fail in a --reasonable" way when they cannot. While EDR is largely motivated by the problems of uncertainty and model error. its...definition for EDR strategies and show how they can be computed. This theory represents what is perhaps the first systematic attack on the problem of

Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2018-04-01

The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

Target position uncertainty during visually guided deep-inspiration breath-hold radiotherapy in locally advanced lung cancer.

PubMed

Scherman Rydhög, Jonas; Riisgaard de Blanck, Steen; Josipovic, Mirjana; Irming Jølck, Rasmus; Larsen, Klaus Richter; Clementsen, Paul; Lars Andersen, Thomas; Poulsen, Per Rugaard; Fredberg Persson, Gitte; Munck Af Rosenschold, Per

2017-04-01

The purpose of this study was to estimate the uncertainty in voluntary deep-inspiration breath-hold (DIBH) radiotherapy for locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. Perpendicular fluoroscopic movies were acquired in free breathing (FB) and DIBH during a course of visually guided DIBH radiotherapy of nine patients with NSCLC. Patients had liquid markers injected in mediastinal lymph nodes and primary tumours. Excursion, systematic- and random errors, and inter-breath-hold position uncertainty were investigated using an image based tracking algorithm. A mean reduction of 2-6mm in marker excursion in DIBH versus FB was seen in the anterior-posterior (AP), left-right (LR) and cranio-caudal (CC) directions. Lymph node motion during DIBH originated from cardiac motion. The systematic- (standard deviation (SD) of all the mean marker positions) and random errors (root-mean-square of the intra-BH SD) during DIBH were 0.5 and 0.3mm (AP), 0.5 and 0.3mm (LR), 0.8 and 0.4mm (CC), respectively. The mean inter-breath-hold shifts were -0.3mm (AP), -0.2mm (LR), and -0.2mm (CC). Intra- and inter-breath-hold uncertainty of tumours and lymph nodes were small in visually guided breath-hold radiotherapy of NSCLC. Target motion could be substantially reduced, but not eliminated, using visually guided DIBH. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Communicating uncertainties in earth sciences in view of user needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Vries, Wim; Kros, Hans; Heuvelink, Gerard

2014-05-01

Uncertainties are inevitable in all results obtained in the earth sciences, regardless whether these are based on field observations, experimental research or predictive modelling. When informing decision and policy makers or stakeholders, it is important that these uncertainties are also communicated. In communicating results, it important to apply a "Progressive Disclosure of Information (PDI)" from non-technical information through more specialised information, according to the user needs. Generalized information is generally directed towards non-scientific audiences and intended for policy advice. Decision makers have to be aware of the implications of the uncertainty associated with results, so that they can account for it in their decisions. Detailed information on the uncertainties is generally intended for scientific audiences to give insight in underlying approaches and results. When communicating uncertainties, it is important to distinguish between scientific results that allow presentation in terms of probabilistic measures of uncertainty and more intrinsic uncertainties and errors that cannot be expressed in mathematical terms. Examples of earth science research that allow probabilistic measures of uncertainty, involving sophisticated statistical methods, are uncertainties in spatial and/or temporal variations in results of: • Observations, such as soil properties measured at sampling locations. In this case, the interpolation uncertainty, caused by a lack of data collected in space, can be quantified by e.g. kriging standard deviation maps or animations of conditional simulations. • Experimental measurements, comparing impacts of treatments at different sites and/or under different conditions. In this case, an indication of the average and range in measured responses to treatments can be obtained from a meta-analysis, summarizing experimental findings between replicates and across studies, sites, ecosystems, etc. • Model predictions due to uncertain model parameters (parametric variability). These uncertainties can be quantified by uncertainty propagation methods such as Monte Carlo simulation methods. Examples of intrinsic uncertainties that generally cannot be expressed in mathematical terms are errors or biases in: • Results of experiments and observations due to inadequate sampling and errors in analyzing data in the laboratory and even in data reporting. • Results of (laboratory) experiments that are limited to a specific domain or performed under circumstances that differ from field circumstances. • Model structure, due to lack of knowledge of the underlying processes. Structural uncertainty, which may cause model inadequacy/ bias, is inherent in model approaches since models are approximations of reality. Intrinsic uncertainties often occur in an emerging field where ongoing new findings, either experiments or field observations of new model findings, challenge earlier work. In this context, climate scientists working within the IPCC have adopted a lexicon to communicate confidence in their findings, ranging from "very high", "high", "medium", "low" and "very low" confidence. In fact, there are also statistical methods to gain insight in uncertainties in model predictions due to model assumptions (i.e. model structural error). Examples are comparing model results with independent observations or a systematic intercomparison of predictions from multiple models. In the latter case, Bayesian model averaging techniques can be used, in which each model considered gets an assigned prior probability of being the 'true' model. This approach works well with statistical (regression) models, but extension to physically-based models is cumbersome. An alternative is the use of state-space models in which structural errors are represent as (additive) noise terms. In this presentation, we focus on approaches that are relevant at the science - policy interface, including multiple scientific disciplines and policy makers with different subject areas. Approaches to communicate uncertainties in results of observations or model predictions are discussed, distinguishing results that include probabilistic measures of uncertainty and more intrinsic uncertainties. Examples concentrate on uncertainties in nitrogen (N) related environmental issues, including: • Spatio-temporal trends in atmospheric N deposition, in view of the policy question whether there is a declining or increasing trend. • Carbon response to N inputs to terrestrial ecosystems, based on meta-analysis of N addition experiments and other approaches, in view of the policy relevance of N emission control. • Calculated spatial variations in the emissions of nitrous-oxide and ammonia, in view of the need of emission policies at different spatial scales. • Calculated N emissions and losses by model intercomparisons, in view of the policy need to apply no-regret decisions with respect to the control of those emissions.

Network planning under uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Kwok Shing; Cheung, Kwok Wai

2008-11-01

One of the main focuses for network planning is on the optimization of network resources required to build a network under certain traffic demand projection. Traditionally, the inputs to this type of network planning problems are treated as deterministic. In reality, the varying traffic requirements and fluctuations in network resources can cause uncertainties in the decision models. The failure to include the uncertainties in the network design process can severely affect the feasibility and economics of the network. Therefore, it is essential to find a solution that can be insensitive to the uncertain conditions during the network planning process. As early as in the 1960's, a network planning problem with varying traffic requirements over time had been studied. Up to now, this kind of network planning problems is still being active researched, especially for the VPN network design. Another kind of network planning problems under uncertainties that has been studied actively in the past decade addresses the fluctuations in network resources. One such hotly pursued research topic is survivable network planning. It considers the design of a network under uncertainties brought by the fluctuations in topology to meet the requirement that the network remains intact up to a certain number of faults occurring anywhere in the network. Recently, the authors proposed a new planning methodology called Generalized Survivable Network that tackles the network design problem under both varying traffic requirements and fluctuations of topology. Although all the above network planning problems handle various kinds of uncertainties, it is hard to find a generic framework under more general uncertainty conditions that allows a more systematic way to solve the problems. With a unified framework, the seemingly diverse models and algorithms can be intimately related and possibly more insights and improvements can be brought out for solving the problem. This motivates us to seek a generic framework for solving the network planning problem under uncertainties. In addition to reviewing the various network planning problems involving uncertainties, we also propose that a unified framework based on robust optimization can be used to solve a rather large segment of network planning problem under uncertainties. Robust optimization is first introduced in the operations research literature and is a framework that incorporates information about the uncertainty sets for the parameters in the optimization model. Even though robust optimization is originated from tackling the uncertainty in the optimization process, it can serve as a comprehensive and suitable framework for tackling generic network planning problems under uncertainties. In this paper, we begin by explaining the main ideas behind the robust optimization approach. Then we demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed framework by giving out some examples of how the robust optimization framework can be applied to the current common network planning problems under uncertain environments. Next, we list some practical considerations for solving the network planning problem under uncertainties with the proposed framework. Finally, we conclude this article with some thoughts on the future directions for applying this framework to solve other network planning problems.

Properties of an eclipsing double white dwarf binary NLTT 11748

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaplan, David L.; Walker, Arielle N.; Marsh, Thomas R.

2014-01-10

We present high-quality ULTRACAM photometry of the eclipsing detached double white dwarf binary NLTT 11748. This system consists of a carbon/oxygen white dwarf and an extremely low mass (<0.2 M {sub ☉}) helium-core white dwarf in a 5.6 hr orbit. To date, such extremely low-mass white dwarfs, which can have thin, stably burning outer layers, have been modeled via poorly constrained atmosphere and cooling calculations where uncertainties in the detailed structure can strongly influence the eventual fates of these systems when mass transfer begins. With precise (individual precision ≈1%), high-cadence (≈2 s), multicolor photometry of multiple primary and secondary eclipsesmore » spanning >1.5 yr, we constrain the masses and radii of both objects in the NLTT 11748 system to a statistical uncertainty of a few percent. However, we find that overall uncertainty in the thickness of the envelope of the secondary carbon/oxygen white dwarf leads to a larger (≈13%) systematic uncertainty in the primary He WD's mass. Over the full range of possible envelope thicknesses, we find that our primary mass (0.136-0.162 M {sub ☉}) and surface gravity (log (g) = 6.32-6.38; radii are 0.0423-0.0433 R {sub ☉}) constraints do not agree with previous spectroscopic determinations. We use precise eclipse timing to detect the Rømer delay at 7σ significance, providing an additional weak constraint on the masses and limiting the eccentricity to ecos ω = (– 4 ± 5) × 10{sup –5}. Finally, we use multicolor data to constrain the secondary's effective temperature (7600 ± 120 K) and cooling age (1.6-1.7 Gyr).« less

PTV margin definition in hypofractionated IGRT of localized prostate cancer using cone beam CT and orthogonal image pairs with fiducial markers.

PubMed

Oehler, Christoph; Lang, Stephanie; Dimmerling, Peter; Bolesch, Christian; Kloeck, Stephan; Tini, Alessandra; Glanzmann, Christoph; Najafi, Yousef; Studer, Gabriela; Zwahlen, Daniel R

2014-11-11

To evaluate PTV margins for hypofractionated IGRT of prostate comparing kV/kV imaging or CBCT. Between 2009 and 2012, 20 patients with low- (LR), intermediate- (IR) and high-risk (HR) prostate cancer were treated with VMAT in supine position with fiducial markers (FM), endorectal balloon (ERB) and full bladder. CBCT's and kV/kV imaging were performed before and additional CBCT's after treatment assessing intra-fraction motion. CTVP for 5 patients with LR and CTVPSV for 5 patients with IR/HR prostate cancer were contoured independently by 3 radiation oncologists using MRI. The van Hark formula (PTV margin =2.5Σ +0.7σ) was applied to calculate PTV margins of prostate/seminal vesicles (P/PSV) using CBCT or FM. 172 and 52 CBCTs before and after RT and 507 kV/kV images before RT were analysed. Differences between FM in CBCT or in planar kV image pairs were below 1 mm. Accounting for both random and systematic uncertainties anisotropic PTV margins were 5-8 mm for P (LR) and 6-11 mm for PSV (IR/HR). Random uncertainties like intra-fraction and inter-fraction (setup) uncertainties were of similar magnitude (0.9-1.4 mm). Largest uncertainty was introduced by CTV delineation (LR: 1-2 mm, IR/HR: 1.6-3.5 mm). Patient positioning using bone matching or ERB-matching resulted in larger PTV margins. For IGRT CBCT or kV/kV-image pairs with FM are interchangeable in respect of accuracy. Especially for hypofractionated RT, PTV margins can be kept in the range of 5 mm or below if stringent daily IGRT, ideally including prostate tracking, is applied. MR-based CTV delineation optimization is recommended.

Novel approaches to reducing uncertainty in regional climate predictions (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ammann, C. M.

2009-12-01

Regional planning in preparation for future climate changes is rapidly gaining importance. However, compared to the global mean projections, correctly anticipating regional climate is often much more difficult, particularly with regard to hydrologic changes. The reason for the high, inherent uncertainty in location specific forecasts arises on one hand from the superposition of large internal variability in the atmosphere-ocean system on the more gradual changes. On the other hand, this problem is confounded by the fact that regional climate records are often short and therefore offer little guidance as to how an underlying trend can be identified within the noise. The use of indirect climate information (proxy records) from a host of natural archives has made significant progress recently. Based on an extended record, process studies can help reveal the regional response to changes in large scale climate that likely have to be expected. But in order to come up with robust, season and parameter specific (temperature versus moisture) climate reconstructions, comprehensive data compilations are needed that integrate proxy records of different characteristics, temporal representations, and different systematic and sampling uncertainties. Based on understanding of physical processes, and making explicit use of that knowledge, new dynamical and statistical techniques in paleoclimatology are being developed and explored. In addition to improved estimates of the past climate, the cascade of uncertainties is directly taken into account so that errors can more comprehensively be assessed. A brief overview of the problems and its potential implications for regional planning is followed by an application that demonstrates how collaboration between paleoclimatologists, climate modelers and statisticians can advance our understanding of the climate system and how agencies, businesses and individuals might be able to make better informed decisions in preparation for future climate.

239Pu(n,γ) from 10 eV to 1.3 MeV

DOE PAGES

Mosby, Shea Morgan; Bredeweg, Todd Allen; Couture, Aaron Joseph; ...

2018-02-01

In this study, the 239Pu(n,γ) cross section has been measured from 10 eV to 1.3 MeV as part of an experimental campaign using the Detector for Advanced Neutron Capture Experiments (DANCE). The work represents a significant advance in experimental technique, with improved systematic uncertainties in key regions in the keV to MeV regime. In general the results of prior work are confirmed with improved uncertainties, particularly at the highest incident neutron energies.

239Pu(n,γ) from 10 eV to 1.3 MeV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosby, S.; Bredeweg, T. A.; Couture, A.; Jandel, M.; Kawano, T.; Ullmann, J.; Henderson, R. A.; Wu, C. Y.

2018-02-01

The 239Pu(n,γ) cross section has been measured from 10 eV to 1.3 MeV as part of an experimental campaign using the Detector for Advanced Neutron Capture Experiments (DANCE). The work represents a significant advance in experimental technique, with improved systematic uncertainties in key regions in the keV to MeV regime. In general the results of prior work are confirmed with improved uncertainties, particularly at the highest incident neutron energies.

Certainty Equivalence M-MRAC for Systems with Unmatched Uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stepanyan, Vahram; Krishnakumar, Kalmanje

2012-01-01

The paper presents a certainty equivalence state feedback indirect adaptive control design method for the systems of any relative degree with unmatched uncertainties. The approach is based on the parameter identification (estimation) model, which is completely separated from the control design and is capable of producing parameter estimates as fast as the computing power allows without generating high frequency oscillations. It is shown that the system's input and output tracking errors can be systematically decreased by the proper choice of the design parameters.

Recent progress in the studies of neutron-rich and high-$Z$ systems within the covariant density functional theory

DOE PAGES

Afanasjev, Anatoli V.; Agbemava, S. E.; Ray, D.; ...

2017-01-01

Here, the analysis of statistical and systematic uncertainties and their propagation to nuclear extremes has been performed. Two extremes of nuclear landscape (neutron-rich nuclei and superheavy nuclei) have been investigated. For the first extreme, we focus on the ground state properties. For the second extreme, we pay a particular attention to theoretical uncertainties in the description of fission barriers of superheavy nuclei and their evolution on going to neutron-rich nuclei.

Measurement of the W-boson mass in pp collisions at $$\\sqrt{s}=7 TeV$$ with the ATLAS detector

DOE PAGES

Aaboud, M.; Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; ...

2018-02-06

A measurement of the mass of the W boson is presented based on proton–proton collision data recorded in 2011 at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC, and corresponding to 4.6 fb -1 of integrated luminosity. The selected data sample consists of 7.8 × 10 6 candidates in the W→μν channel and 5.9×10 6 candidates in the W→eν channel. The W-boson mass is obtained from template fits to the reconstructed distributions of the charged lepton transverse momentum and of the W boson transverse mass in the electron and muon decay channels, yielding m Wmore » =80370 ± 7 (stat.) ± 11 (exp.syst.) ±14 (mod.syst.) MeV = 80370 ± 19 MeV where the first uncertainty is statistical, the second corresponds to the experimental systematic uncertainty, and the third to the physics-modelling systematic uncertainty. Finally, a measurement of the mass difference between the W + and W - bosons yields m W + -m W = -29 ± 28 MeV.« less

Measurement of the top quark mass using charged particles in pp collisions at √s = 8 TeV

DOE PAGES

Khachatryan, Vardan

2016-05-18

A novel technique for measuring the mass of the top quark that uses only the kinematic properties of its charged decay products is presented. Top quark pair events with final states with one or two charged leptons and hadronic jets are selected from the data set of 8 TeV proton-proton collisions, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 19.7 fb -1. By reconstructing secondary vertices inside the selected jets and computing the invariant mass of the system formed by the secondary vertex and an isolated lepton, an observable is constructed that is sensitive to the top quark mass that is expected tomore » be robust against the energy scale of hadronic jets. The main theoretical systematic uncertainties, concerning the modeling of the fragmentation and hadronization of b quarks and the reconstruction of secondary vertices from the decays of b hadrons, are studied. A top quark mass of 173.68±0.20(stat) -0.97 +1.58(syst) GeV is measured. Furthermore, the overall systematic uncertainty is dominated by the uncertainty in the b quark fragmentation and the modeling of kinematic properties of the top quark.« less

Analysis of determinations of the distance between the sun and the galactic center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malkin, Z. M.

2013-02-01

The paper investigates the question of whether or not determinations of the distance between the Sun and the Galactic center R 0 are affected by the so-called "bandwagon effect", leading to selection effects in published data that tend to be close to expected values, as was suggested by some authors. It is difficult to estimate numerically a systematic uncertainty in R 0 due to the bandwagon effect; however, it is highly probable that, even if widely accepted values differ appreciably from the true value, the published results should eventually approach the true value despite the bandwagon effect. This should be manifest as a trend in the published R 0 data: if this trend is statistically significant, the presence of the bandwagon effect can be suspected in the data. Fifty two determinations of R 0 published over the last 20 years were analyzed. These data reveal no statistically significant trend, suggesting they are unlikely to involve any systematic uncertainty due to the bandwagon effect. At the same time, the published data show a gradual and statistically significant decrease in the uncertainties in the R 0 determinations with time.

An exacting transition probability measurement - a direct test of atomic many-body theories.

PubMed

Dutta, Tarun; De Munshi, Debashis; Yum, Dahyun; Rebhi, Riadh; Mukherjee, Manas

2016-07-19

A new protocol for measuring the branching fraction of hydrogenic atoms with only statistically limited uncertainty is proposed and demonstrated for the decay of the P3/2 level of the barium ion, with precision below 0.5%. Heavy hydrogenic atoms like the barium ion are test beds for fundamental physics such as atomic parity violation and they also hold the key to understanding nucleo-synthesis in stars. To draw definitive conclusion about possible physics beyond the standard model by measuring atomic parity violation in the barium ion it is necessary to measure the dipole transition probabilities of low-lying excited states with a precision better than 1%. Furthermore, enhancing our understanding of the barium puzzle in barium stars requires branching fraction data for proper modelling of nucleo-synthesis. Our measurements are the first to provide a direct test of quantum many-body calculations on the barium ion with a precision below one percent and more importantly with no known systematic uncertainties. The unique measurement protocol proposed here can be easily extended to any decay with more than two channels and hence paves the way for measuring the branching fractions of other hydrogenic atoms with no significant systematic uncertainties.

Measurement of the W-boson mass in pp collisions at $$\\sqrt{s}=7 TeV$$ with the ATLAS detector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aaboud, M.; Aad, G.; Abbott, B.

A measurement of the mass of the W boson is presented based on proton–proton collision data recorded in 2011 at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC, and corresponding to 4.6 fb -1 of integrated luminosity. The selected data sample consists of 7.8 × 10 6 candidates in the W→μν channel and 5.9×10 6 candidates in the W→eν channel. The W-boson mass is obtained from template fits to the reconstructed distributions of the charged lepton transverse momentum and of the W boson transverse mass in the electron and muon decay channels, yielding m Wmore » =80370 ± 7 (stat.) ± 11 (exp.syst.) ±14 (mod.syst.) MeV = 80370 ± 19 MeV where the first uncertainty is statistical, the second corresponds to the experimental systematic uncertainty, and the third to the physics-modelling systematic uncertainty. Finally, a measurement of the mass difference between the W + and W - bosons yields m W + -m W = -29 ± 28 MeV.« less

Determination of the fine structure constant based on BLOCH oscillations of ultracold atoms in a vertical optical lattice.

PubMed

Cladé, Pierre; de Mirandes, Estefania; Cadoret, Malo; Guellati-Khélifa, Saïda; Schwob, Catherine; Nez, François; Julien, Lucile; Biraben, François

2006-01-27

We report an accurate measurement of the recoil velocity of 87Rb atoms based on Bloch oscillations in a vertical accelerated optical lattice. We transfer about 900 recoil momenta with an efficiency of 99.97% per recoil. A set of 72 measurements of the recoil velocity, each one with a relative uncertainty of about 33 ppb in 20 min integration time, leads to a determination of the fine structure constant with a statistical relative uncertainty of 4.4 ppb. The detailed analysis of the different systematic errors yields to a relative uncertainty of 6.7 ppb. The deduced value of alpha-1 is 137.035 998 78(91).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aristophanous, M; Court, L

Purpose: Despite daily image guidance setup uncertainties can be high when treating large areas of the body. The aim of this study was to measure local uncertainties inside the PTV for patients receiving IMRT to the mediastinum region. Methods: Eleven lymphoma patients that received radiotherapy (breath-hold) to the mediastinum were included in this study. The treated region could range all the way from the neck to the diaphragm. Each patient had a CT scan with a CT-on-rails system prior to every treatment. The entire PTV region was matched to the planning CT using automatic rigid registration. The PTV was thenmore » split into 5 regions: neck, supraclavicular, superior mediastinum, upper heart, lower heart. Additional auto-registrations for each of the 5 local PTV regions were performed. The residual local setup errors were calculated as the difference between the final global PTV position and the individual final local PTV positions for the AP, SI and RL directions. For each patient 4 CT scans were analyzed (1 per week of treatment). Results: The residual mean group error (M) and standard deviation of the inter-patient (or systematic) error (Σ) were lowest in the RL direction of the superior mediastinum (0.0mm and 0.5mm) and highest in the RL direction of the lower heart (3.5mm and 2.9mm). The standard deviation of the inter-fraction (or random) error (σ) was lowest in the RL direction of the superior mediastinum (0.5mm) and highest in the SI direction of the lower heart (3.9mm) The directionality of local uncertainties is important; a superior residual error in the lower heart for example keeps it in the global PTV. Conclusion: There is a complex relationship between breath-holding and positioning uncertainties that needs further investigation. Residual setup uncertainties can be significant even under daily CT image guidance when treating large regions of the body.« less

Deuterium Abundance Toward G191-B2B: Results from the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lemoine, M.; Vidal-Madjar, A.; Hebrard, G.; Desert, J.-M.; Ferlet, R.; LecavelierdesEtangs, A.; Howk, J. C.; Andre, M.; Blair, W. P.; Friedman, S. D.;

Evaluation of setup uncertainties for single-fraction SRS by comparing two different mask-creation methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baek, Jong Geun; Jang, Hyun Soo; Oh, Young Kee; Lee, Hyun Jeong; Kim, Eng Chan

2015-07-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the setup uncertainties for single-fraction stereotactic radiosurgery (SF-SRS) based on clinical data with two different mask-creation methods using pretreatment con-beam computed tomography imaging guidance. Dedicated frameless fixation Brain- LAB masks for 23 patients were created as a routine mask (R-mask) making method, as explained in the BrainLAB's user manual. Alternative masks (A-masks), which were created by modifying the cover range of the R-masks for the patient's head, were used for 23 patients. The systematic errors including these for each mask and stereotactic target localizer were analyzed, and the errors were calculated as the means ± standard deviations (SD) from the left-right (LR), superior-inferior (SI), anterior-posterior (AP), and yaw setup corrections. In addition, the frequencies of the threedimensional (3D) vector length were analyzed. The values of the mean setup corrections for the R-mask in all directions were < 0.7 mm and < 0.1°, whereas the magnitudes of the SDs were relatively large compared to the mean values. In contrast, the means and SDs of the A-mask were smaller than those for the R-mask with the exception of the SD in the AP direction. The means and SDs in the yaw rotational direction for the R-mask and the A-mask system were comparable. 3D vector shifts of larger magnitude occurred more frequently for the R-mask than the A-mask. The setup uncertainties for each mask with the stereotactic localizing system had an asymmetric offset towards the positive AP direction. The A-mask-creation method, which is capable of covering the top of the patient's head, is superior to that for the R-mask, so the use of the A-mask is encouraged for SF-SRS to reduce the setup uncertainties. Moreover, careful mask-making is required to prevent possible setup uncertainties.

The Calibration System of the E989 Experiment at Fermilab

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anastasi, Antonio

The muon anomaly aµ is one of the most precise quantity known in physics experimentally and theoretically. The high level of accuracy permits to use the measurement of aµ as a test of the Standard Model comparing with the theoretical calculation. After the impressive result obtained at Brookhaven National Laboratory in 2001 with a total accuracy of 0.54 ppm, a new experiment E989 is under construction at Fermilab, motivated by the diff of aexp SM µ - aµ ~ 3σ. The purpose of the E989 experiment is a fourfold reduction of the error, with a goal of 0.14 ppm,more » improving both the systematic and statistical uncertainty. With the use of the Fermilab beam complex a statistic of × 21 with respect to BNL will be reached in almost 2 years of data taking improving the statistical uncertainty to 0.1 ppm. Improvement on the systematic error involves the measurement technique of ωa and ωp, the anomalous precession frequency of the muon and the Larmor precession frequency of the proton respectively. The measurement of ωp involves the magnetic field measurement and improvements on this sector related to the uniformity of the field should reduce the systematic uncertainty with respect to BNL from 170 ppb to 70 ppb. A reduction from 180 ppb to 70 ppb is also required for the measurement of ωa; new DAQ, a faster electronics and new detectors and calibration system will be implemented with respect to E821 to reach this goal. In particular the laser calibration system will reduce the systematic error due to gain fl of the photodetectors from 0.12 to 0.02 ppm. The 0.02 ppm limit on systematic requires a system with a stability of 10 -4 on short time scale (700 µs) while on longer time scale the stability is at the percent level. The 10 -4 stability level required is almost an order of magnitude better than the existing laser calibration system in particle physics, making the calibration system a very challenging item. In addition to the high level of stability a particular environment, due to the presence of a 14 m diameter storage ring, a highly uniform magnetic field and the detector distribution around the storage ring, set specific guidelines and constraints. This thesis will focus on the final design of the Laser Calibration System developed for the E989 experiment. Chapter 1 introduces the subject of the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon; chapter 2 presents previous measurement of g -2, while chapter 3 discusses the Standard Model prediction and possible new physics scenario. Chapter 4 describes the E989 experiment. In this chapter will be described the experimental technique and also will be presented the experimental apparatus focusing on the improvements necessary to reduce the statistical and systematic errors. The main item of the thesis is discussed in the last two chapters: chapter 5 is focused on the Laser Calibration system while chapter 6 describes the Test Beam performed at the Beam Test Facility of Laboratori Nazionali di Frascati from the 29th February to the 7th March as a final test for the full calibrations system. An introduction explain the physics motivation of the system and the diff t devices implemented. In the final chapter the setup used will be described and some of the results obtained will be presented.« less

Applied Mathematics in EM Studies with Special Emphasis on an Uncertainty Quantification and 3-D Integral Equation Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pankratov, Oleg; Kuvshinov, Alexey

2016-01-01

Despite impressive progress in the development and application of electromagnetic (EM) deterministic inverse schemes to map the 3-D distribution of electrical conductivity within the Earth, there is one question which remains poorly addressed—uncertainty quantification of the recovered conductivity models. Apparently, only an inversion based on a statistical approach provides a systematic framework to quantify such uncertainties. The Metropolis-Hastings (M-H) algorithm is the most popular technique for sampling the posterior probability distribution that describes the solution of the statistical inverse problem. However, all statistical inverse schemes require an enormous amount of forward simulations and thus appear to be extremely demanding computationally, if not prohibitive, if a 3-D set up is invoked. This urges development of fast and scalable 3-D modelling codes which can run large-scale 3-D models of practical interest for fractions of a second on high-performance multi-core platforms. But, even with these codes, the challenge for M-H methods is to construct proposal functions that simultaneously provide a good approximation of the target density function while being inexpensive to be sampled. In this paper we address both of these issues. First we introduce a variant of the M-H method which uses information about the local gradient and Hessian of the penalty function. This, in particular, allows us to exploit adjoint-based machinery that has been instrumental for the fast solution of deterministic inverse problems. We explain why this modification of M-H significantly accelerates sampling of the posterior probability distribution. In addition we show how Hessian handling (inverse, square root) can be made practicable by a low-rank approximation using the Lanczos algorithm. Ultimately we discuss uncertainty analysis based on stochastic inversion results. In addition, we demonstrate how this analysis can be performed within a deterministic approach. In the second part, we summarize modern trends in the development of efficient 3-D EM forward modelling schemes with special emphasis on recent advances in the integral equation approach.

Hard Constraints in Optimization Under Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Giesy, Daniel P.; Kenny, Sean P.

2008-01-01

This paper proposes a methodology for the analysis and design of systems subject to parametric uncertainty where design requirements are specified via hard inequality constraints. Hard constraints are those that must be satisfied for all parameter realizations within a given uncertainty model. Uncertainty models given by norm-bounded perturbations from a nominal parameter value, i.e., hyper-spheres, and by sets of independently bounded uncertain variables, i.e., hyper-rectangles, are the focus of this paper. These models, which are also quite practical, allow for a rigorous mathematical treatment within the proposed framework. Hard constraint feasibility is determined by sizing the largest uncertainty set for which the design requirements are satisfied. Analytically verifiable assessments of robustness are attained by comparing this set with the actual uncertainty model. Strategies that enable the comparison of the robustness characteristics of competing design alternatives, the description and approximation of the robust design space, and the systematic search for designs with improved robustness are also proposed. Since the problem formulation is generic and the tools derived only require standard optimization algorithms for their implementation, this methodology is applicable to a broad range of engineering problems.

Development of Probabilistic Socio-Economic Emissions Scenarios (2012)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The purpose of this analysis is to help overcome these limitations through the development of a publically available library of socio-economic-emissions projections derived from a systematic examination of uncertainty in key underlying model parameters, w

Systematics for T2K/Hyper-K (Review Talk)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shah, Raj

Hyper-Kamiokande is a proposed next generation underground water Cherenkov detector. Presented here is a review of sensitivities and dominant uncertainties associated with measurements of CP violation and non-maximal mixing in the 2-3 sector.

UNITY: Confronting Supernova Cosmology's Statistical and Systematic Uncertainties in a Unified Bayesian Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubin, D.; Aldering, G.; Barbary, K.; Boone, K.; Chappell, G.; Currie, M.; Deustua, S.; Fagrelius, P.; Fruchter, A.; Hayden, B.; Lidman, C.; Nordin, J.; Perlmutter, S.; Saunders, C.; Sofiatti, C.; Supernova Cosmology Project, The

2015-11-01

While recent supernova (SN) cosmology research has benefited from improved measurements, current analysis approaches are not statistically optimal and will prove insufficient for future surveys. This paper discusses the limitations of current SN cosmological analyses in treating outliers, selection effects, shape- and color-standardization relations, unexplained dispersion, and heterogeneous observations. We present a new Bayesian framework, called UNITY (Unified Nonlinear Inference for Type-Ia cosmologY), that incorporates significant improvements in our ability to confront these effects. We apply the framework to real SN observations and demonstrate smaller statistical and systematic uncertainties. We verify earlier results that SNe Ia require nonlinear shape and color standardizations, but we now include these nonlinear relations in a statistically well-justified way. This analysis was primarily performed blinded, in that the basic framework was first validated on simulated data before transitioning to real data. We also discuss possible extensions of the method.

Community health nursing practices in contexts of poverty, uncertainty and unpredictability: a systematization of personal experiences.

PubMed

Laperrière, Hélène

2007-01-01

Several years of professional nursing practices, while living in the poorest neighbourhoods in the outlying areas of Brazil's Amazon region, have led the author to develop a better understanding of marginalized populations. Providing care to people with leprosy and sex workers in riverside communities has taken place in conditions of uncertainty, insecurity, unpredictability and institutional violence. The question raised is how we can develop community health nursing practices in this context. A systematization of personal experiences based on popular education is used and analyzed as a way of learning by obtaining scientific knowledge through critical analysis of field practices. Ties of solidarity and belonging developed in informal, mutual-help action groups are promising avenues for research and the development of knowledge in health promotion, prevention and community care and a necessary contribution to national public health programmers.

Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect Derived Distance to the High Redshift Clusters MS 0451.6-0305 and CL 0016+16

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reese, E. D.; Mohr, J. J.; Carlstrom, J. E.; Grego, L.; Holder, G. P.; Holzapfel, W. L.; Hughes, J. P.; Patel, S. K.

2000-01-01

We determine the distances to the z approximately equal to 0.55 galaxy clusters MS 0451.6-0305 and CL 0016+16 from a maximum likelihood joint fit to interferometric Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect (SZE) and X-ray observations. We model the intracluster medium (ICM) using a spherical isothermal beta-model. We quantify the statistical and systematic uncertainties inherent to these direct distance measurements, and we determine constraints on the Hubble parameter for three different cosmologies. For an OmegaM = 0.3, OmegaL = 0.7 cosmology, these distances imply a Hubble constant of 63(exp 12)(sub -9)(exp +21)(sub -21) km/s/Mpc, where the uncertainties correspond to statistical followed by systematic at 68% confidence. The best fit H(sub o) is 57 km/sec/Mpc for an open OmegaM = 0.3 universe and 52 km/s/Mpc for a flat Omega = 1 universe.

Sunyaev-Zeldovich Effect-Derived Distances to the High-Redshift Clusters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reese, Erik D.; Mohr, Joseph J.; Carlstrom, John E.; Joy, Marshall; Grego, Laura; Holder, Gilbert P.; Holzapfel, William L.; Hughes, John P.; Patel, Sandeep K.; Donahue, Megan

2000-01-01

We determine the distances to the z approximately equals 0.55 galaxy clusters MS 0451.6 - 0305 and Cl 0016 + 16 from a maximum-likelihood joint fit to interferometric Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect (SZE) and X-ray observations. We model the intracluster medium (ICM) using a spherical isothermal beta model. We quantify the statistical and systematic uncertainties inherent to these direct distance measurements, and we determine constraints on the Hubble parameter for three different cosmologies. For an Omega(sub M) = 0.3, Omega(sub lambda) = 0.7 cosmology, these distances imply a Hubble constant of 63(sup +12) (sub -9) (sup + 21) (sub -21) km/s Mp/c, where the uncertainties correspond to statistical followed by systematic at 68% confidence. The best-fit H(sub 0) is 57 km/s Mp/c for an open (Omega(sub M) = 0.3) universe and 52 km/s Mp/c for a flat (Omega(sub M) = 1) universe.

Uncertainty aggregation and reduction in structure-material performance prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zhen; Mahadevan, Sankaran; Ao, Dan

2018-02-01

An uncertainty aggregation and reduction framework is presented for structure-material performance prediction. Different types of uncertainty sources, structural analysis model, and material performance prediction model are connected through a Bayesian network for systematic uncertainty aggregation analysis. To reduce the uncertainty in the computational structure-material performance prediction model, Bayesian updating using experimental observation data is investigated based on the Bayesian network. It is observed that the Bayesian updating results will have large error if the model cannot accurately represent the actual physics, and that this error will be propagated to the predicted performance distribution. To address this issue, this paper proposes a novel uncertainty reduction method by integrating Bayesian calibration with model validation adaptively. The observation domain of the quantity of interest is first discretized into multiple segments. An adaptive algorithm is then developed to perform model validation and Bayesian updating over these observation segments sequentially. Only information from observation segments where the model prediction is highly reliable is used for Bayesian updating; this is found to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of uncertainty reduction. A composite rotorcraft hub component fatigue life prediction model, which combines a finite element structural analysis model and a material damage model, is used to demonstrate the proposed method.

Not Normal: the uncertainties of scientific measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bailey, David C.

2017-01-01

Judging the significance and reproducibility of quantitative research requires a good understanding of relevant uncertainties, but it is often unclear how well these have been evaluated and what they imply. Reported scientific uncertainties were studied by analysing 41 000 measurements of 3200 quantities from medicine, nuclear and particle physics, and interlaboratory comparisons ranging from chemistry to toxicology. Outliers are common, with 5σ disagreements up to five orders of magnitude more frequent than naively expected. Uncertainty-normalized differences between multiple measurements of the same quantity are consistent with heavy-tailed Student's t-distributions that are often almost Cauchy, far from a Gaussian Normal bell curve. Medical research uncertainties are generally as well evaluated as those in physics, but physics uncertainty improves more rapidly, making feasible simple significance criteria such as the 5σ discovery convention in particle physics. Contributions to measurement uncertainty from mistakes and unknown problems are not completely unpredictable. Such errors appear to have power-law distributions consistent with how designed complex systems fail, and how unknown systematic errors are constrained by researchers. This better understanding may help improve analysis and meta-analysis of data, and help scientists and the public have more realistic expectations of what scientific results imply.

Not Normal: the uncertainties of scientific measurements

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Judging the significance and reproducibility of quantitative research requires a good understanding of relevant uncertainties, but it is often unclear how well these have been evaluated and what they imply. Reported scientific uncertainties were studied by analysing 41 000 measurements of 3200 quantities from medicine, nuclear and particle physics, and interlaboratory comparisons ranging from chemistry to toxicology. Outliers are common, with 5σ disagreements up to five orders of magnitude more frequent than naively expected. Uncertainty-normalized differences between multiple measurements of the same quantity are consistent with heavy-tailed Student’s t-distributions that are often almost Cauchy, far from a Gaussian Normal bell curve. Medical research uncertainties are generally as well evaluated as those in physics, but physics uncertainty improves more rapidly, making feasible simple significance criteria such as the 5σ discovery convention in particle physics. Contributions to measurement uncertainty from mistakes and unknown problems are not completely unpredictable. Such errors appear to have power-law distributions consistent with how designed complex systems fail, and how unknown systematic errors are constrained by researchers. This better understanding may help improve analysis and meta-analysis of data, and help scientists and the public have more realistic expectations of what scientific results imply. PMID:28280557

Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thornburn, P. J.; Rotter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.;

Mapping (dis)agreement in hydrologic projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melsen, Lieke A.; Addor, Nans; Mizukami, Naoki; Newman, Andrew J.; Torfs, Paul J. J. F.; Clark, Martyn P.; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Teuling, Adriaan J.

2018-03-01

Hydrologic projections are of vital socio-economic importance. However, they are also prone to uncertainty. In order to establish a meaningful range of storylines to support water managers in decision making, we need to reveal the relevant sources of uncertainty. Here, we systematically and extensively investigate uncertainty in hydrologic projections for 605 basins throughout the contiguous US. We show that in the majority of the basins, the sign of change in average annual runoff and discharge timing for the period 2070-2100 compared to 1985-2008 differs among combinations of climate models, hydrologic models, and parameters. Mapping the results revealed that different sources of uncertainty dominate in different regions. Hydrologic model induced uncertainty in the sign of change in mean runoff was related to snow processes and aridity, whereas uncertainty in both mean runoff and discharge timing induced by the climate models was related to disagreement among the models regarding the change in precipitation. Overall, disagreement on the sign of change was more widespread for the mean runoff than for the discharge timing. The results demonstrate the need to define a wide range of quantitative hydrologic storylines, including parameter, hydrologic model, and climate model forcing uncertainty, to support water resource planning.

Uncertainties of optical parameters and their propagations in an analytical ocean color inversion algorithm.

PubMed

Lee, ZhongPing; Arnone, Robert; Hu, Chuanmin; Werdell, P Jeremy; Lubac, Bertrand

2010-01-20

Following the theory of error propagation, we developed analytical functions to illustrate and evaluate the uncertainties of inherent optical properties (IOPs) derived by the quasi-analytical algorithm (QAA). In particular, we evaluated the effects of uncertainties of these optical parameters on the inverted IOPs: the absorption coefficient at the reference wavelength, the extrapolation of particle backscattering coefficient, and the spectral ratios of absorption coefficients of phytoplankton and detritus/gelbstoff, respectively. With a systematically simulated data set (46,200 points), we found that the relative uncertainty of QAA-derived total absorption coefficients in the blue-green wavelengths is generally within +/-10% for oceanic waters. The results of this study not only establish theoretical bases to evaluate and understand the effects of the various variables on IOPs derived from remote-sensing reflectance, but also lay the groundwork to analytically estimate uncertainties of these IOPs for each pixel. These are required and important steps for the generation of quality maps of IOP products derived from satellite ocean color remote sensing.

How well do elderly people cope with uncertainty in a learning task?

PubMed

Chasseigne, G; Grau, S; Mullet, E; Cama, V

1999-11-01

The relation between age, task complexity and learning performance in a Multiple Cue Probability Learning task was studied by systematically varying the level of uncertainty present in the task, keeping constant the direction of relationships. Four age groups were constituted: young adults (mean age = 21), middle-aged adults (45), elderly people (69) and very elderly people (81). Five uncertainty levels were considered: predictability = 0.96, 0.80, 0.64, 0.48, and 0.32. All relationships involved were direct ones. A strong effect of uncertainty on 'control', a measure of the subject's consistency with respect to a linear model, was found. This effect was essentially a linear one. To each decrement in predictability of the task corresponded an equal decrement in participants' level of control. This level of decrement was the same, regardless of the age of the participant. It can be concluded that elderly people cope with uncertainty in probability learning tasks as well as young adults.

Generalization of information-based concepts in forecast verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tödter, J.; Ahrens, B.

2012-04-01

This work deals with information-theoretical methods in probabilistic forecast verification. Recent findings concerning the Ignorance Score are shortly reviewed, then the generalization to continuous forecasts is shown. For ensemble forecasts, the presented measures can be calculated exactly. The Brier Score (BS) and its generalizations to the multi-categorical Ranked Probability Score (RPS) and to the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) are the prominent verification measures for probabilistic forecasts. Particularly, their decompositions into measures quantifying the reliability, resolution and uncertainty of the forecasts are attractive. Information theory sets up the natural framework for forecast verification. Recently, it has been shown that the BS is a second-order approximation of the information-based Ignorance Score (IGN), which also contains easily interpretable components and can also be generalized to a ranked version (RIGN). Here, the IGN, its generalizations and decompositions are systematically discussed in analogy to the variants of the BS. Additionally, a Continuous Ranked IGN (CRIGN) is introduced in analogy to the CRPS. The applicability and usefulness of the conceptually appealing CRIGN is illustrated, together with an algorithm to evaluate its components reliability, resolution, and uncertainty for ensemble-generated forecasts. This is also directly applicable to the more traditional CRPS.

The cosmic ray energy spectrum in the range 1016-1018 eV measured by KASCADE-Grande

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertaina, M.; Apel, W. D.; Arteaga-Velázquez, J. C.; Bekk, K.; Blümer, J.; Bozdog, H.; Brancus, I. M.; Buchholz, P.; Cantoni, E.; Chiavassa, A.; Cossavella, F.; Daumiller, K.; de Souza, V.; di Pierro, F.; Doll, P.; Engel, R.; Engler, J.; Finger, M.; Fuhrmann, D.; Ghia, P. L.; Gils, H. J.; Glasstetter, R.; Grupen, C.; Haungs, A.; Heck, D.; Hörandel, J. R.; Huege, T.; Isar, P. G.; Kampert, K.-H.; Kang, D.; Kickelbick, D.; Klages, H. O.; Link, K.; Łuczak, P.; Ludwig, M.; Mathes, H. J.; Mayer, H. J.; Melissas, M.; Milke, J.; Mitrica, B.; Morello, C.; Navarra, G.; Nehls, S.; Oehlschläger, J.; Ostapchenko, S.; Over, S.; Palmieri, N.; Petcu, M.; Pierog, T.; Rebel, H.; Roth, M.; Schieler, H.; Schröder, F.; Sima, O.; Toma, G.; Trinchero, G. C.; Ulrich, H.; Weindl, A.; Wochele, J.; Wommer, M.; Zabierowski, J.

2011-06-01

The KASCADE-Grande experiment, located at Campus North of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (Germany) is a multi-component extensive air-shower experiment devoted to the study of cosmic rays and their interactions at primary energies 1014-1018 eV. One of the main goals of the experiment is the measurement of the all particle energy spectrum in the 1016-1018 eV range, i.e. extending the range accessible by KASCADE alone. The Grande detector samples the charged component (Nch) of the air shower while the original KASCADE array provides in addition a measurement of the muon component (Nμ). The combined information of Nch and Nμ is used to estimate the energy on an event-by-event basis and to derive the all-particle energy spectrum. Since the calibration of the observables in terms of the primary energy depends on Monte Carlo simulations, three different methods with partially different sources of uncertainties, have been considered and compared to each other to derive the systematics on the energy spectrum. The different methods employed to derive the spectrum and their uncertainties, as well as the implications of the obtained result, are discussed in detail.

Accurate Distances to Important Spiral Galaxies: M63, M74, NGC 1291, NGC 4559, NGC 4625, and NGC 5398

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McQuinn, Kristen B. W.; Skillman, Evan D.; Dolphin, Andrew E.

Accurate distances are fundamental for interpreting various measured properties of galaxies. Surprisingly, many of the best-studied spiral galaxies in the Local Volume have distance uncertainties that are much larger than can be achieved with modern observation techniques. Using Hubble Space Telescope optical imaging, we use the tip of the red giant branch method to measure the distances to six galaxies that are included in the Spitzer Infrared Nearby Galaxies Survey program and its offspring surveys. The sample includes M63, M74, NGC 1291, NGC 4559, NGC 4625, and NGC 5398. We compare our results with distances reported to these galaxies basedmore » on a variety of methods. Depending on the technique, there can be a wide range in published distances, particularly from the Tully–Fisher relation. In addition, differences between the planetary nebular luminosity function and surface brightness fluctuation techniques can vary between galaxies, suggesting inaccuracies that cannot be explained by systematics in the calibrations. Our distances improve upon previous results, as we use a well-calibrated, stable distance indicator, precision photometry in an optimally selected field of view, and a Bayesian maximum likelihood technique that reduces measurement uncertainties.« less

Astrometry of Pluto from 1930-1951 observations: The Lampland plate collection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buie, Marc W.; Folkner, William M., E-mail: buie@boulder.swri.edu, E-mail: william.m.folkner@jpl.nasa.gov

We present a new analysis of 843 photographic plates of Pluto taken by Carl Lampland at Lowell Observatory from 1930–1951. This large collection of plates contains useful astrometric information that improves our knowledge of Pluto's orbit. This improvement provides critical support to the impending flyby of Pluto by New Horizons. New Horizons can do inbound navigation of the system to improve its targeting. This navigation is capable of nearly eliminating the sky-plane errors but can do little to constrain the time of closest approach. Thus the focus on this work was to better determine Pluto's heliocentric distance and to determinemore » the uncertainty on that distance with a particular eye to eliminating systematic errors that might have been previously unrecognized. This work adds 596 new astrometric measurements based on the USNO CCD Astrograph Catalog 4. With the addition of these data the uncertainty of the estimated heliocentric position of Pluto in Developmental Ephemerides 432 (DE432) is at the level of 1000 km. This new analysis gives us more confidence that these estimations are accurate and are sufficient to support a successful flyby of Pluto by New Horizons.« less

Probabilistic parameter estimation in a 2-step chemical kinetics model for n-dodecane jet autoignition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakim, Layal; Lacaze, Guilhem; Khalil, Mohammad; Sargsyan, Khachik; Najm, Habib; Oefelein, Joseph

2018-05-01

This paper demonstrates the development of a simple chemical kinetics model designed for autoignition of n-dodecane in air using Bayesian inference with a model-error representation. The model error, i.e. intrinsic discrepancy from a high-fidelity benchmark model, is represented by allowing additional variability in selected parameters. Subsequently, we quantify predictive uncertainties in the results of autoignition simulations of homogeneous reactors at realistic diesel engine conditions. We demonstrate that these predictive error bars capture model error as well. The uncertainty propagation is performed using non-intrusive spectral projection that can also be used in principle with larger scale computations, such as large eddy simulation. While the present calibration is performed to match a skeletal mechanism, it can be done with equal success using experimental data only (e.g. shock-tube measurements). Since our method captures the error associated with structural model simplifications, we believe that the optimised model could then lead to better qualified predictions of autoignition delay time in high-fidelity large eddy simulations than the existing detailed mechanisms. This methodology provides a way to reduce the cost of reaction kinetics in simulations systematically, while quantifying the accuracy of predictions of important target quantities.

Astrometry of Pluto from 1930-1951 Observations: the Lampland Plate Collection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buie, Marc W.; Folkner, William M.

2015-01-01

We present a new analysis of 843 photographic plates of Pluto taken by Carl Lampland at Lowell Observatory from 1930-1951. This large collection of plates contains useful astrometric information that improves our knowledge of Pluto's orbit. This improvement provides critical support to the impending flyby of Pluto by New Horizons. New Horizons can do inbound navigation of the system to improve its targeting. This navigation is capable of nearly eliminating the sky-plane errors but can do little to constrain the time of closest approach. Thus the focus on this work was to better determine Pluto's heliocentric distance and to determine the uncertainty on that distance with a particular eye to eliminating systematic errors that might have been previously unrecognized. This work adds 596 new astrometric measurements based on the USNO CCD Astrograph Catalog 4. With the addition of these data the uncertainty of the estimated heliocentric position of Pluto in Developmental Ephemerides 432 (DE432) is at the level of 1000 km. This new analysis gives us more confidence that these estimations are accurate and are sufficient to support a successful flyby of Pluto by New Horizons.

Towards improved and more routine Earth system model evaluation in CMIP

DOE PAGES

Eyring, Veronika; Gleckler, Peter J.; Heinze, Christoph; ...

2016-11-01

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has successfully provided the climate community with a rich collection of simulation output from Earth system models (ESMs) that can be used to understand past climate changes and make projections and uncertainty estimates of the future. Confidence in ESMs can be gained because the models are based on physical principles and reproduce many important aspects of observed climate. More research is required to identify the processes that are most responsible for systematic biases and the magnitude and uncertainty of future projections so that more relevant performance tests can be developed. At the same time,more » there are many aspects of ESM evaluation that are well established and considered an essential part of systematic evaluation but have been implemented ad hoc with little community coordination. Given the diversity and complexity of ESM analysis, we argue that the CMIP community has reached a critical juncture at which many baseline aspects of model evaluation need to be performed much more efficiently and consistently. We provide a perspective and viewpoint on how a more systematic, open, and rapid performance assessment of the large and diverse number of models that will participate in current and future phases of CMIP can be achieved, and announce our intention to implement such a system for CMIP6. Accomplishing this could also free up valuable resources as many scientists are frequently "re-inventing the wheel" by re-writing analysis routines for well-established analysis methods. A more systematic approach for the community would be to develop and apply evaluation tools that are based on the latest scientific knowledge and observational reference, are well suited for routine use, and provide a wide range of diagnostics and performance metrics that comprehensively characterize model behaviour as soon as the output is published to the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). The CMIP infrastructure enforces data standards and conventions for model output and documentation accessible via the ESGF, additionally publishing observations (obs4MIPs) and reanalyses (ana4MIPs) for model intercomparison projects using the same data structure and organization as the ESM output. This largely facilitates routine evaluation of the ESMs, but to be able to process the data automatically alongside the ESGF, the infrastructure needs to be extended with processing capabilities at the ESGF data nodes where the evaluation tools can be executed on a routine basis. Efforts are already underway to develop community-based evaluation tools, and we encourage experts to provide additional diagnostic codes that would enhance this capability for CMIP. And, at the same time, we encourage the community to contribute observations and reanalyses for model evaluation to the obs4MIPs and ana4MIPs archives. The intention is to produce through the ESGF a widely accepted quasi-operational evaluation framework for CMIP6 that would routinely execute a series of standardized evaluation tasks. Over time, as this capability matures, we expect to produce an increasingly systematic characterization of models which, compared with early phases of CMIP, will more quickly and openly identify the strengths and weaknesses of the simulations. This will also reveal whether long-standing model errors remain evident in newer models and will assist modelling groups in improving their models. Finally, this framework will be designed to readily incorporate updates, including new observations and additional diagnostics and metrics as they become available from the research community.« less

Uncertainty analysis and robust trajectory linearization control of a flexible air-breathing hypersonic vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pu, Zhiqiang; Tan, Xiangmin; Fan, Guoliang; Yi, Jianqiang

2014-08-01

Flexible air-breathing hypersonic vehicles feature significant uncertainties which pose huge challenges to robust controller designs. In this paper, four major categories of uncertainties are analyzed, that is, uncertainties associated with flexible effects, aerodynamic parameter variations, external environmental disturbances, and control-oriented modeling errors. A uniform nonlinear uncertainty model is explored for the first three uncertainties which lumps all uncertainties together and consequently is beneficial for controller synthesis. The fourth uncertainty is additionally considered in stability analysis. Based on these analyses, the starting point of the control design is to decompose the vehicle dynamics into five functional subsystems. Then a robust trajectory linearization control (TLC) scheme consisting of five robust subsystem controllers is proposed. In each subsystem controller, TLC is combined with the extended state observer (ESO) technique for uncertainty compensation. The stability of the overall closed-loop system with the four aforementioned uncertainties and additional singular perturbations is analyzed. Particularly, the stability of nonlinear ESO is also discussed from a Liénard system perspective. At last, simulations demonstrate the great control performance and the uncertainty rejection ability of the robust scheme.

Uncertainty quantification for optical model parameters

DOE PAGES

Lovell, A. E.; Nunes, F. M.; Sarich, J.; ...

2017-02-21

Although uncertainty quantification has been making its way into nuclear theory, these methods have yet to be explored in the context of reaction theory. For example, it is well known that different parameterizations of the optical potential can result in different cross sections, but these differences have not been systematically studied and quantified. The purpose of our work is to investigate the uncertainties in nuclear reactions that result from fitting a given model to elastic-scattering data, as well as to study how these uncertainties propagate to the inelastic and transfer channels. We use statistical methods to determine a best fitmore » and create corresponding 95% confidence bands. A simple model of the process is fit to elastic-scattering data and used to predict either inelastic or transfer cross sections. In this initial work, we assume that our model is correct, and the only uncertainties come from the variation of the fit parameters. Here, we study a number of reactions involving neutron and deuteron projectiles with energies in the range of 5–25 MeV/u, on targets with mass A=12–208. We investigate the correlations between the parameters in the fit. The case of deuterons on 12C is discussed in detail: the elastic-scattering fit and the prediction of 12C(d,p) 13C transfer angular distributions, using both uncorrelated and correlated χ 2 minimization functions. The general features for all cases are compiled in a systematic manner to identify trends. This work shows that, in many cases, the correlated χ 2 functions (in comparison to the uncorrelated χ 2 functions) provide a more natural parameterization of the process. These correlated functions do, however, produce broader confidence bands. Further optimization may require improvement in the models themselves and/or more information included in the fit.« less

An algorithm for U-Pb isotope dilution data reduction and uncertainty propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLean, N. M.; Bowring, J. F.; Bowring, S. A.

2011-06-01

High-precision U-Pb geochronology by isotope dilution-thermal ionization mass spectrometry is integral to a variety of Earth science disciplines, but its ultimate resolving power is quantified by the uncertainties of calculated U-Pb dates. As analytical techniques have advanced, formerly small sources of uncertainty are increasingly important, and thus previous simplifications for data reduction and uncertainty propagation are no longer valid. Although notable previous efforts have treated propagation of correlated uncertainties for the U-Pb system, the equations, uncertainties, and correlations have been limited in number and subject to simplification during propagation through intermediary calculations. We derive and present a transparent U-Pb data reduction algorithm that transforms raw isotopic data and measured or assumed laboratory parameters into the isotopic ratios and dates geochronologists interpret without making assumptions about the relative size of sample components. To propagate uncertainties and their correlations, we describe, in detail, a linear algebraic algorithm that incorporates all input uncertainties and correlations without limiting or simplifying covariance terms to propagate them though intermediate calculations. Finally, a weighted mean algorithm is presented that utilizes matrix elements from the uncertainty propagation algorithm to propagate random and systematic uncertainties for data comparison between other U-Pb labs and other geochronometers. The linear uncertainty propagation algorithms are verified with Monte Carlo simulations of several typical analyses. We propose that our algorithms be considered by the community for implementation to improve the collaborative science envisioned by the EARTHTIME initiative.

Evaluating BC and NOx emission inventories for the Paris region from MEGAPOLI aircraft measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petetin, H.; Beekmann, M.; Colomb, A.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Dupont, J.-C.; Honoré, C.; Michoud, V.; Morille, Y.; Perrussel, O.; Schwarzenboeck, A.; Sciare, J.; Wiedensohler, A.; Zhang, Q. J.

2015-09-01

High uncertainties affect black carbon (BC) emissions, and, despite its important impact on air pollution and climate, very few BC emissions evaluations are found in the literature. This paper presents a novel approach, based on airborne measurements across the Paris, France, plume, developed in order to evaluate BC and NOx emissions at the scale of a whole agglomeration. The methodology consists in integrating, for each transect, across the plume observed and simulated concentrations above background. This allows for several error sources (e.g., representativeness, chemistry, plume lateral dispersion) to be minimized in the model used. The procedure is applied with the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model to three inventories - the EMEP inventory and the so-called TNO and TNO-MP inventories - over the month of July 2009. Various systematic uncertainty sources both in the model (e.g., boundary layer height, vertical mixing, deposition) and in observations (e.g., BC nature) are discussed and quantified, notably through sensitivity tests. Large uncertainty values are determined in our results, which limits the usefulness of the method to rather strongly erroneous emission inventories. A statistically significant (but moderate) overestimation is obtained for the TNO BC emissions and the EMEP and TNO-MP NOx emissions, as well as for the BC / NOx emission ratio in TNO-MP. The benefit of the airborne approach is discussed through a comparison with the BC / NOx ratio at a ground site in Paris, which additionally suggests a spatially heterogeneous error in BC emissions over the agglomeration.

New reaction rates for improved primordial D /H calculation and the cosmic evolution of deuterium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coc, Alain; Petitjean, Patrick; Uzan, Jean-Philippe; Vangioni, Elisabeth; Descouvemont, Pierre; Iliadis, Christian; Longland, Richard

2015-12-01

Primordial or big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) is one of the three historically strong evidences for the big bang model. Standard BBN is now a parameter-free theory, since the baryonic density of the Universe has been deduced with an unprecedented precision from observations of the anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background radiation. There is a good agreement between the primordial abundances of 4He, D, 3He, and 7Li deduced from observations and from primordial nucleosynthesis calculations. However, the 7Li calculated abundance is significantly higher than the one deduced from spectroscopic observations and remains an open problem. In addition, recent deuterium observations have drastically reduced the uncertainty on D /H , to reach a value of 1.6%. It needs to be matched by BBN predictions whose precision is now limited by thermonuclear reaction rate uncertainties. This is especially important as many attempts to reconcile Li observations with models lead to an increased D prediction. Here, we reevaluate the d (p ,γ )3He, d (d ,n ) 3H3, and d (d ,p ) 3H reaction rates that govern deuterium destruction, incorporating new experimental data and carefully accounting for systematic uncertainties. Contrary to previous evaluations, we use theoretical ab initio models for the energy dependence of the S factors. As a result, these rates increase at BBN temperatures, leading to a reduced value of D /H =(2.45 ±0.10 )×10-5 (2 σ ), in agreement with observations.

Helioseismic and neutrino data-driven reconstruction of solar properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Ningqiang; Gonzalez-Garcia, M. C.; Villante, Francesco L.; Vinyoles, Nuria; Serenelli, Aldo

2018-06-01

In this work, we use Bayesian inference to quantitatively reconstruct the solar properties most relevant to the solar composition problem using as inputs the information provided by helioseismic and solar neutrino data. In particular, we use a Gaussian process to model the functional shape of the opacity uncertainty to gain flexibility and become as free as possible from prejudice in this regard. With these tools we first readdress the statistical significance of the solar composition problem. Furthermore, starting from a composition unbiased set of standard solar models (SSMs) we are able to statistically select those with solar chemical composition and other solar inputs which better describe the helioseismic and neutrino observations. In particular, we are able to reconstruct the solar opacity profile in a data-driven fashion, independently of any reference opacity tables, obtaining a 4 per cent uncertainty at the base of the convective envelope and 0.8 per cent at the solar core. When systematic uncertainties are included, results are 7.5 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively. In addition, we find that the values of most of the other inputs of the SSMs required to better describe the helioseismic and neutrino data are in good agreement with those adopted as the standard priors, with the exception of the astrophysical factor S11 and the microscopic diffusion rates, for which data suggests a 1 per cent and 30 per cent reduction, respectively. As an output of the study we derive the corresponding data-driven predictions for the solar neutrino fluxes.

The Harm that Underestimation of Uncertainty Does to Our Community: A Case Study Using Sunspot Area Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres

2017-08-01

Data products in heliospheric physics are very often provided without clear estimates of uncertainty. From helioseismology in the solar interior, all the way to in situ solar wind measurements beyond 1AU, uncertainty estimates are typically hard for users to find (buried inside long documents that are separate from the data products), or simply non-existent.There are two main reasons why uncertainty measurements are hard to find:1. Understanding instrumental systematic errors is given a much higher priority inside instrumental teams.2. The desire to perfectly understand all sources of uncertainty postpones indefinitely the actual quantification of uncertainty in our measurements.Using the cross calibration of 200 years of sunspot area measurements as a case study, in this presentation we will discuss the negative impact that inadequate measurements of uncertainty have on users, through the appearance of toxic and unnecessary controversies, and data providers, through the creation of unrealistic expectations regarding the information that can be extracted from their data. We will discuss how empirical estimates of uncertainty represent a very good alternative to not providing any estimates at all, and finalize by discussing the bare essentials that should become our standard practice for future instruments and surveys.

Expected trace gas and aerosol retrieval accuracy of the Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, U.; Kim, J.; Liu, X.; Lee, K. H.; Chance, K.; Song, C. H.

2015-12-01

The predicted accuracy of the trace gases and aerosol retrievals from the geostationary environment monitoring spectrometer (GEMS) was investigated. The GEMS is one of the first sensors to monitor NO2, SO2, HCHO, O3, and aerosols onboard geostationary earth orbit (GEO) over Asia. Since the GEMS is not launched yet, the simulated measurements and its precision were used in this study. The random and systematic component of the measurement error was estimated based on the instrument design. The atmospheric profiles were obtained from Model for Ozone And Related chemical Tracers (MOZART) simulations and surface reflectances were obtained from climatology of OMI Lambertian equivalent reflectance. The uncertainties of the GEMS trace gas and aerosol products were estimated based on the OE method using the atmospheric profile and surface reflectance. Most of the estimated uncertainties of NO2, HCHO, stratospheric and total O3 products satisfied the user's requirements with sufficient margin. However, about 26% of the estimated uncertainties of SO2 and about 30% of the estimated uncertainties of tropospheric O3 do not meet the required precision. Particularly the estimated uncertainty of SO2 is high in winter, when the emission is strong in East Asia. Further efforts are necessary in order to improve the retrieval accuracy of SO2 and tropospheric O3 in order to reach the scientific goal of GEMS. Random measurement error of GEMS was important for the NO2, SO2, and HCHO retrieval, while both the random and systematic measurement errors were important for the O3 retrievals. The degree of freedom for signal of tropospheric O3 was 0.8 ± 0.2 and that for stratospheric O3 was 2.9 ± 0.5. The estimated uncertainties of the aerosol retrieval from GEMS measurements were predicted to be lower than the required precision for the SZA range of the trace gas retrievals.

A probabilistic approach to remote compositional analysis of planetary surfaces

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lapotre, Mathieu G.A.; Ehlmann, Bethany L.; Minson, Sarah E.

2017-01-01

Reflected light from planetary surfaces provides information, including mineral/ice compositions and grain sizes, by study of albedo and absorption features as a function of wavelength. However, deconvolving the compositional signal in spectra is complicated by the nonuniqueness of the inverse problem. Trade-offs between mineral abundances and grain sizes in setting reflectance, instrument noise, and systematic errors in the forward model are potential sources of uncertainty, which are often unquantified. Here we adopt a Bayesian implementation of the Hapke model to determine sets of acceptable-fit mineral assemblages, as opposed to single best fit solutions. We quantify errors and uncertainties in mineral abundances and grain sizes that arise from instrument noise, compositional end members, optical constants, and systematic forward model errors for two suites of ternary mixtures (olivine-enstatite-anorthite and olivine-nontronite-basaltic glass) in a series of six experiments in the visible-shortwave infrared (VSWIR) wavelength range. We show that grain sizes are generally poorly constrained from VSWIR spectroscopy. Abundance and grain size trade-offs lead to typical abundance errors of ≤1 wt % (occasionally up to ~5 wt %), while ~3% noise in the data increases errors by up to ~2 wt %. Systematic errors further increase inaccuracies by a factor of 4. Finally, phases with low spectral contrast or inaccurate optical constants can further increase errors. Overall, typical errors in abundance are <10%, but sometimes significantly increase for specific mixtures, prone to abundance/grain-size trade-offs that lead to high unmixing uncertainties. These results highlight the need for probabilistic approaches to remote determination of planetary surface composition.

Galaxy Cluster Mass Reconstruction Project – III. The impact of dynamical substructure on cluster mass estimates

DOE PAGES

Old, L.; Wojtak, R.; Pearce, F. R.; ...

2017-12-20

With the advent of wide-field cosmological surveys, we are approaching samples of hundreds of thousands of galaxy clusters. While such large numbers will help reduce statistical uncertainties, the control of systematics in cluster masses is crucial. Here we examine the effects of an important source of systematic uncertainty in galaxy-based cluster mass estimation techniques: the presence of significant dynamical substructure. Dynamical substructure manifests as dynamically distinct subgroups in phase-space, indicating an ‘unrelaxed’ state. This issue affects around a quarter of clusters in a generally selected sample. We employ a set of mock clusters whose masses have been measured homogeneously withmore » commonly used galaxy-based mass estimation techniques (kinematic, richness, caustic, radial methods). We use these to study how the relation between observationally estimated and true cluster mass depends on the presence of substructure, as identified by various popular diagnostics. We find that the scatter for an ensemble of clusters does not increase dramatically for clusters with dynamical substructure. However, we find a systematic bias for all methods, such that clusters with significant substructure have higher measured masses than their relaxed counterparts. This bias depends on cluster mass: the most massive clusters are largely unaffected by the presence of significant substructure, but masses are significantly overestimated for lower mass clusters, by ~ 10 percent at 10 14 and ≳ 20 percent for ≲ 10 13.5. Finally, the use of cluster samples with different levels of substructure can therefore bias certain cosmological parameters up to a level comparable to the typical uncertainties in current cosmological studies.« less

Galaxy Cluster Mass Reconstruction Project – III. The impact of dynamical substructure on cluster mass estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Old, L.; Wojtak, R.; Pearce, F. R.

With the advent of wide-field cosmological surveys, we are approaching samples of hundreds of thousands of galaxy clusters. While such large numbers will help reduce statistical uncertainties, the control of systematics in cluster masses is crucial. Here we examine the effects of an important source of systematic uncertainty in galaxy-based cluster mass estimation techniques: the presence of significant dynamical substructure. Dynamical substructure manifests as dynamically distinct subgroups in phase-space, indicating an ‘unrelaxed’ state. This issue affects around a quarter of clusters in a generally selected sample. We employ a set of mock clusters whose masses have been measured homogeneously withmore » commonly used galaxy-based mass estimation techniques (kinematic, richness, caustic, radial methods). We use these to study how the relation between observationally estimated and true cluster mass depends on the presence of substructure, as identified by various popular diagnostics. We find that the scatter for an ensemble of clusters does not increase dramatically for clusters with dynamical substructure. However, we find a systematic bias for all methods, such that clusters with significant substructure have higher measured masses than their relaxed counterparts. This bias depends on cluster mass: the most massive clusters are largely unaffected by the presence of significant substructure, but masses are significantly overestimated for lower mass clusters, by ~ 10 percent at 10 14 and ≳ 20 percent for ≲ 10 13.5. Finally, the use of cluster samples with different levels of substructure can therefore bias certain cosmological parameters up to a level comparable to the typical uncertainties in current cosmological studies.« less

Uncertainty in the Himalayan energy-water nexus: estimating regional exposure to glacial lake outburst floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Worni, Raphael; Huggel, Christian; Stoffel, Markus; Korup, Oliver

2016-07-01

Himalayan water resources attract a rapidly growing number of hydroelectric power projects (HPP) to satisfy Asia’s soaring energy demands. Yet HPP operating or planned in steep, glacier-fed mountain rivers face hazards of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) that can damage hydropower infrastructure, alter water and sediment yields, and compromise livelihoods downstream. Detailed appraisals of such GLOF hazards are limited to case studies, however, and a more comprehensive, systematic analysis remains elusive. To this end we estimate the regional exposure of 257 Himalayan HPP to GLOFs, using a flood-wave propagation model fed by Monte Carlo-derived outburst volumes of >2300 glacial lakes. We interpret the spread of thus modeled peak discharges as a predictive uncertainty that arises mainly from outburst volumes and dam-breach rates that are difficult to assess before dams fail. With 66% of sampled HPP are on potential GLOF tracks, up to one third of these HPP could experience GLOF discharges well above local design floods, as hydropower development continues to seek higher sites closer to glacial lakes. We compute that this systematic push of HPP into headwaters effectively doubles the uncertainty about GLOF peak discharge in these locations. Peak discharges farther downstream, in contrast, are easier to predict because GLOF waves attenuate rapidly. Considering this systematic pattern of regional GLOF exposure might aid the site selection of future Himalayan HPP. Our method can augment, and help to regularly update, current hazard assessments, given that global warming is likely changing the number and size of Himalayan meltwater lakes.

A 2.4% DETERMINATION OF THE LOCAL VALUE OF THE HUBBLE CONSTANT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riess, Adam G.; Scolnic, Dan; Jones, David O.

We use the Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) to reduce the uncertainty in the local value of the Hubble constant from 3.3% to 2.4%. The bulk of this improvement comes from new near-infrared (NIR) observations of Cepheid variables in 11 host galaxies of recent type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), more than doubling the sample of reliable SNe Ia having a Cepheid-calibrated distance to a total of 19; these in turn leverage the magnitude-redshift relation based on ∼300 SNe Ia at z < 0.15. All 19 hosts as well as the megamaser system NGC 4258more » have been observed with WFC3 in the optical and NIR, thus nullifying cross-instrument zeropoint errors in the relative distance estimates from Cepheids. Other noteworthy improvements include a 33% reduction in the systematic uncertainty in the maser distance to NGC 4258, a larger sample of Cepheids in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), a more robust distance to the LMC based on late-type detached eclipsing binaries (DEBs), HST observations of Cepheids in M31, and new HST -based trigonometric parallaxes for Milky Way (MW) Cepheids. We consider four geometric distance calibrations of Cepheids: (i) megamasers in NGC 4258, (ii) 8 DEBs in the LMC, (iii) 15 MW Cepheids with parallaxes measured with HST /FGS, HST /WFC3 spatial scanning and/or Hipparcos , and (iv) 2 DEBs in M31. The Hubble constant from each is 72.25 ± 2.51, 72.04 ± 2.67, 76.18 ± 2.37, and 74.50 ± 3.27 km s{sup 1} Mpc{sup 1}, respectively. Our best estimate of H {sub 0} = 73.24 ± 1.74 km s{sup 1} Mpc{sup 1} combines the anchors NGC 4258, MW, and LMC, yielding a 2.4% determination (all quoted uncertainties include fully propagated statistical and systematic components). This value is 3.4 σ higher than 66.93 ± 0.62 km s{sup 1} Mpc{sup 1} predicted by ΛCDM with 3 neutrino flavors having a mass of 0.06 eV and the new Planck data, but the discrepancy reduces to 2.1 σ relative to the prediction of 69.3 ± 0.7 km s{sup 1} Mpc{sup 1} based on the comparably precise combination of WMAP +ACT+SPT+BAO observations, suggesting that systematic uncertainties in CMB radiation measurements may play a role in the tension. If we take the conflict between Planck high-redshift measurements and our local determination of H {sub 0} at face value, one plausible explanation could involve an additional source of dark radiation in the early universe in the range of Δ N {sub eff} ≈ 0.4–1. We anticipate further significant improvements in H {sub 0} from upcoming parallax measurements of long-period MW Cepheids.« less

A 2.4% Determination of the Local Value of the Hubble Constant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riess, Adam G.; Macri, Lucas M.; Hoffmann, Samantha L.; Scolnic, Dan; Casertano, Stefano; Filippenko, Alexei V.; Tucker, Brad E.; Reid, Mark J.; Jones, David O.; Silverman, Jeffrey M.; Chornock, Ryan; Challis, Peter; Yuan, Wenlong; Brown, Peter J.; Foley, Ryan J.

2016-07-01

We use the Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) to reduce the uncertainty in the local value of the Hubble constant from 3.3% to 2.4%. The bulk of this improvement comes from new near-infrared (NIR) observations of Cepheid variables in 11 host galaxies of recent type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), more than doubling the sample of reliable SNe Ia having a Cepheid-calibrated distance to a total of 19; these in turn leverage the magnitude-redshift relation based on ˜300 SNe Ia at z < 0.15. All 19 hosts as well as the megamaser system NGC 4258 have been observed with WFC3 in the optical and NIR, thus nullifying cross-instrument zeropoint errors in the relative distance estimates from Cepheids. Other noteworthy improvements include a 33% reduction in the systematic uncertainty in the maser distance to NGC 4258, a larger sample of Cepheids in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), a more robust distance to the LMC based on late-type detached eclipsing binaries (DEBs), HST observations of Cepheids in M31, and new HST-based trigonometric parallaxes for Milky Way (MW) Cepheids. We consider four geometric distance calibrations of Cepheids: (I) megamasers in NGC 4258, (II) 8 DEBs in the LMC, (III) 15 MW Cepheids with parallaxes measured with HST/FGS, HST/WFC3 spatial scanning and/or Hipparcos, and (IV) 2 DEBs in M31. The Hubble constant from each is 72.25 ± 2.51, 72.04 ± 2.67, 76.18 ± 2.37, and 74.50 ± 3.27 km s-1 Mpc-1, respectively. Our best estimate of H 0 = 73.24 ± 1.74 km s-1 Mpc-1 combines the anchors NGC 4258, MW, and LMC, yielding a 2.4% determination (all quoted uncertainties include fully propagated statistical and systematic components). This value is 3.4σ higher than 66.93 ± 0.62 km s-1 Mpc-1 predicted by ΛCDM with 3 neutrino flavors having a mass of 0.06 eV and the new Planck data, but the discrepancy reduces to 2.1σ relative to the prediction of 69.3 ± 0.7 km s-1 Mpc-1 based on the comparably precise combination of WMAP+ACT+SPT+BAO observations, suggesting that systematic uncertainties in CMB radiation measurements may play a role in the tension. If we take the conflict between Planck high-redshift measurements and our local determination of H 0 at face value, one plausible explanation could involve an additional source of dark radiation in the early universe in the range of ΔN eff ≈ 0.4-1. We anticipate further significant improvements in H 0 from upcoming parallax measurements of long-period MW Cepheids. Based on observations with the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope, obtained at the Space Telescope Science Institute, which is operated by AURA, Inc., under NASA contract NAS 5-26555.

Analysis of Repeatability and Reliability of Warm IRAC Observations of Transiting Exoplanets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carey, Sean J.; Krick, Jessica; Ingalls, James

2015-12-01

Extracting information about thermal profiles and composition of the atmospheres of transiting exoplanets is extremely challenging due to the small differential signal of the atmosphere in observations of transits, secondary eclipses, and full phase curves for exoplanets. The relevant signals are often at the level of 100 ppm or smaller and require the removal of significant instrumental systematics in the two infrared instruments currently capable of providing information at this precision, WFC3 on HST and IRAC aboard the Spitzer Space Telescope. For IRAC, the systematics are due to the interplay of residual telescope pointing variation with intra-pixel gain variations in the moderately undersampled camera. There is currently a debate in the community on the reliability of repeated IRAC observations of exoplanets particularly those in eclipse from which inferences about atmospheric temperature and pressure profiles can made. To assess the repeatability and reliability of post-cryogenic observations with IRAC, the Spitzer Science Center in conjunction with volunteers from the astronomical community has performed a systematic analysis of the removal of systematics and repeatability of warm IRAC observations. Recently, a data challenge consisting of the measurement of ten secondary eclipses of XO-3b (see Wong et al. 2014) and a complementary analysis of a synthetic version of the XO-3b data was undertaken. We report on the results of this data challenge. Five different techniques were applied to the data (BLISS mapping [Stevenson et al. (2012)], kernel regression using the science data [Wong et al. (2015)] and calibration data [Krick et al. (2015)], pixel-level decorrelation [Deming et al. (2015)], ICA [Morello et al. (2015)] and Gaussian Processes [Evans et al. (2015)]) and found consistent results in terms of eclipse depth and reliability in both the actual and synthetic data. In addition, each technique obtained the input eclipse depth in the simulated data within the stated measurement uncertainty. The reported uncertainties for each measurement approach the photon noise limit. These findings generally refute the results of Hansen et al. (2014) and suggest that inferences about atmospheric properties can be reasonably made using warm IRAC data. Application of our test methods to future observations using JWST (in particular the MIRI instrument) will be discussed.

Validation Of TRMM For Hazard Assessment In The Remote Context Of Tropical Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monsieurs, E.; Kirschbaum, D.; Tan, J.; Jacobs, L.; Kervyn, M.; Demoulin, A.; Dewitte, O.

2017-12-01

Accurate rainfall data is fundamental for understanding and mitigating the disastrous effects of many rainfall-triggered hazards, especially when one considers the challenges arising from climate change and rainfall variability. In tropical Africa in particular, the sparse operational rainfall gauging network hampers the ability to understand these hazards. Satellite rainfall estimates (SRE) can therefore be of great value. Yet, rigorous validation is required to identify the uncertainties when using SRE for hazard applications. We evaluated the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 Research Derived Daily Product from 1998 to 2017, at 0.25° x 0.25° spatial and 24 h temporal resolution. The validation was done over the western branch of the East African Rift, with the perspective of regional landslide hazard assessment in mind. Even though we collected an unprecedented dataset of 47 gauges with a minimum temporal resolution of 24 h, the sparse and heterogeneous temporal coverage in a region with high rainfall variability poses challenges for validation. In addition, the discrepancy between local-scale gauge data and spatially averaged ( 775 km²) TMPA data in the context of local convective storms and orographic rainfall is a crucial source of uncertainty. We adopted a flexible framework for SRE validation that fosters explorative research in a remote context. Results show that TMPA performs reasonably well during the rainy seasons for rainfall intensities <20 mm/day. TMPA systematically underestimates rainfall, but most problematic is the decreasing probability of detection of high intensity rainfalls. We suggest that landslide hazard might be efficiently assessed if we take account of the systematic biases in TMPA data and determine rainfall thresholds modulated by controls on, and uncertainties of, TMPA revealed in this study. Moreover, it is found relevant in mapping regional-scale rainfall-triggered hazards that are in any case poorly covered by the sparse available gauges. We anticipate validation of TMPA's successor (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement; 10 km × 10 km, half-hourly) using the proposed framework, as soon as this product will be available in early 2018 for the 1998-present period.

Defining robustness protocols: a method to include and evaluate robustness in clinical plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGowan, S. E.; Albertini, F.; Thomas, S. J.; Lomax, A. J.

2015-04-01

We aim to define a site-specific robustness protocol to be used during the clinical plan evaluation process. Plan robustness of 16 skull base IMPT plans to systematic range and random set-up errors have been retrospectively and systematically analysed. This was determined by calculating the error-bar dose distribution (ebDD) for all the plans and by defining some metrics used to define protocols aiding the plan assessment. Additionally, an example of how to clinically use the defined robustness database is given whereby a plan with sub-optimal brainstem robustness was identified. The advantage of using different beam arrangements to improve the plan robustness was analysed. Using the ebDD it was found range errors had a smaller effect on dose distribution than the corresponding set-up error in a single fraction, and that organs at risk were most robust to the range errors, whereas the target was more robust to set-up errors. A database was created to aid planners in terms of plan robustness aims in these volumes. This resulted in the definition of site-specific robustness protocols. The use of robustness constraints allowed for the identification of a specific patient that may have benefited from a treatment of greater individuality. A new beam arrangement showed to be preferential when balancing conformality and robustness for this case. The ebDD and error-bar volume histogram proved effective in analysing plan robustness. The process of retrospective analysis could be used to establish site-specific robustness planning protocols in proton therapy. These protocols allow the planner to determine plans that, although delivering a dosimetrically adequate dose distribution, have resulted in sub-optimal robustness to these uncertainties. For these cases the use of different beam start conditions may improve the plan robustness to set-up and range uncertainties.

Intercomparison of mid latitude storm diagnostics (IMILAST) - synthesis of project results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neu, Urs

2017-04-01

The analysis of the occurrence of mid-latitude storms is of great socio-economical interest due to their vast and destructive impacts. However, a unique definition of cyclones is missing, and therefore the definition of what a cyclone is as well as quantifying its strength contains subjective choices. Existing automatic cyclone identification and tracking algorithms are based on different definitions and use diverse characteristics, e.g. data transformation, metrics used for cyclone identification, cyclone identification procedures or tracking methods. The project IMILAST systematically compares different cyclone detection and tracking methods, with the aim to comprehensively assess the influence of different algorithms on cyclone climatologies, temporal trends of frequency, strength or other characteristics of cyclones and thus quantify systematic uncertainties in mid-latitudinal storm identification and tracking. The three main intercomparison experiments used the ERA-interim reanalysis as a common input data set and focused on differences between the methods with respect to number, track density, life cycle characteristics, and trend patterns on the one hand and potential differences of the long-term climate change signal of cyclonic activity between the methods on the other hand. For the third experiment, the intercomparison period has been extended to a 30 year period from 1979 to 2009 and focuses on more specific aspects, such as parameter sensitivities, the comparison of automated to manual tracking sets, regional analysis (regional trends, Arctic and Antarctic cyclones, cyclones in the Mediterranean) or specific phenomena like splitting and merging of cyclones. In addition, the representation of storms and their characteristics in reanalysis data sets is examined to further enhance the knowledge on uncertainties related to storm occurrence. This poster presents a synthesis of the main results from the intercomparison activities within IMILAST.

Predicting Statistical Response and Extreme Events in Uncertainty Quantification through Reduced-Order Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, D.; Majda, A.

2017-12-01

A low-dimensional reduced-order statistical closure model is developed for quantifying the uncertainty in statistical sensitivity and intermittency in principal model directions with largest variability in high-dimensional turbulent system and turbulent transport models. Imperfect model sensitivity is improved through a recent mathematical strategy for calibrating model errors in a training phase, where information theory and linear statistical response theory are combined in a systematic fashion to achieve the optimal model performance. The idea in the reduced-order method is from a self-consistent mathematical framework for general systems with quadratic nonlinearity, where crucial high-order statistics are approximated by a systematic model calibration procedure. Model efficiency is improved through additional damping and noise corrections to replace the expensive energy-conserving nonlinear interactions. Model errors due to the imperfect nonlinear approximation are corrected by tuning the model parameters using linear response theory with an information metric in a training phase before prediction. A statistical energy principle is adopted to introduce a global scaling factor in characterizing the higher-order moments in a consistent way to improve model sensitivity. Stringent models of barotropic and baroclinic turbulence are used to display the feasibility of the reduced-order methods. Principal statistical responses in mean and variance can be captured by the reduced-order models with accuracy and efficiency. Besides, the reduced-order models are also used to capture crucial passive tracer field that is advected by the baroclinic turbulent flow. It is demonstrated that crucial principal statistical quantities like the tracer spectrum and fat-tails in the tracer probability density functions in the most important large scales can be captured efficiently with accuracy using the reduced-order tracer model in various dynamical regimes of the flow field with distinct statistical structures.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lees, J.P.

We present the first results on the Dalitz-plot structure and improved measurements of the time-dependent CP-violation parameters of the process B{sup 0} {yields} K{sub S}{sup 0}K{sub S}{sup 0}K{sub S}{sup 0} obtained using 468 x 10{sup 6} B{bar B} decays collected with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II asymmetric-energy B factory at SLAC. The Dalitz-plot structure is probed by a time-integrated amplitude analysis that does not distinguish between B{sup 0} and {bar B}{sup 0} decays. We measure the total inclusive branching fraction {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} K{sub S}{sup 0}K{sub S}{sup 0}K{sub S}{sup 0}) = (6.19 {+-} 0.48 {+-} 0.15 {+-} 0.12) xmore » 10{sup -6}, where the first uncertainty is statistical, the second is systematic, and the third represents the Dalitz-plot signal model dependence. We also observe evidence for the intermediate resonant states f{sub 0}(980), f{sub 0}(1710), and f{sub 2}(2010). Their respective product branching fractions are measured to be (2.70{sub -1.19}{sup +1.25} {+-} 0.36 {+-} 1.17) x 10{sup -6}, (0.50{sub -0.24}{sup +0.46} {+-} 0.04 {+-} 0.10) x 10{sup -6}, and (0.54{sub -0.20}{sup +0.21} {+-} 0.03 {+-} 0.52) x 10{sup -6}. Additionally, we determine the mixing-induced CP-violation parameters to be S = -0.94{sub -0.21}{sup +0.24} {+-} 0.06 and C = -0.17 {+-} 0.18 {+-} 0.04, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic. These values are in agreement with the standard model expectation.« less

Heterogeneous Distribution of Chromium on Mercury

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nittler, L. R.; Boujibar, A.; Crapster-Pregont, E.; Frank, E. A.; McCoy, T. J.; McCubbin, F. M.; Starr, R. D.; Vander Kaaden, K. E.; Vorburger, A.; Weider, S. Z.

2018-05-01

Mercury's surface has an average Cr/Si ratio of 0.003 (Cr 800 ppm), with at least a factor of 2 systematic uncertainty. Cr is heterogeneously distributed and correlated with Mg, Ca, S, and Fe and anti-correlated with Al.

A Systematic Method for Verification and Validation of Gyrokinetic Microstability Codes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bravenec, Ronald

My original proposal for the period Feb. 15, 2014 through Feb. 14, 2017 called for an integrated validation and verification effort carried out by myself with collaborators. The validation component would require experimental profile and power-balance analysis. In addition, it would require running the gyrokinetic codes varying the input profiles within experimental uncertainties to seek agreement with experiment before discounting a code as invalidated. Therefore, validation would require a major increase of effort over my previous grant periods which covered only code verification (code benchmarking). Consequently, I had requested full-time funding. Instead, I am being funded at somewhat less thanmore » half time (5 calendar months per year). As a consequence, I decided to forego the validation component and to only continue the verification efforts.« less

Multiplex tests to identify gastrointestinal bacteria, viruses and parasites in people with suspected infectious gastroenteritis: a systematic review and economic analysis.

PubMed

Freeman, Karoline; Mistry, Hema; Tsertsvadze, Alexander; Royle, Pam; McCarthy, Noel; Taylor-Phillips, Sian; Manuel, Rohini; Mason, James

2017-04-01

Gastroenteritis is a common, transient disorder usually caused by infection and characterised by the acute onset of diarrhoea. Multiplex gastrointestinal pathogen panel (GPP) tests simultaneously identify common bacterial, viral and parasitic pathogens using molecular testing. By providing test results more rapidly than conventional testing methods, GPP tests might positively influence the treatment and management of patients presenting in hospital or in the community. To systematically review the evidence for GPP tests [xTAG ® (Luminex, Toronto, ON, Canada), FilmArray (BioFire Diagnostics, Salt Lake City, UT, USA) and Faecal Pathogens B (AusDiagnostics, Beaconsfield, NSW, Australia)] and to develop a de novo economic model to compare the cost-effectiveness of GPP tests with conventional testing in England and Wales. Multiple electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science and the Cochrane Database were searched from inception to January 2016 (with supplementary searches of other online resources). Eligible studies included patients with acute diarrhoea; comparing GPP tests with standard microbiology techniques; and patient, management, test accuracy or cost-effectiveness outcomes. Quality assessment of eligible studies used tailored Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2, Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards and Philips checklists. The meta-analysis included positive and negative agreement estimated for each pathogen. A de novo decision tree model compared patients managed with GPP testing or comparable coverage with patients managed using conventional tests, within the Public Health England pathway. Economic models included hospital and community management of patients with suspected gastroenteritis. The model estimated costs (in 2014/15 prices) and quality-adjusted life-year losses from a NHS and Personal Social Services perspective. Twenty-three studies informed the review of clinical evidence (17 xTAG, four FilmArray, two xTAG and FilmArray, 0 Faecal Pathogens B). No study provided an adequate reference standard with which to compare the test accuracy of GPP with conventional tests. A meta-analysis (of 10 studies) found considerable heterogeneity; however, GPP testing produces a greater number of pathogen-positive findings than conventional testing. It is unclear whether or not these additional 'positives' are clinically important. The review identified no robust evidence to inform consequent clinical management of patients. There is considerable uncertainty about the cost-effectiveness of GPP panels used to test for suspected infectious gastroenteritis in hospital and community settings. Uncertainties in the model include length of stay, assumptions about false-positive findings and the costs of tests. Although there is potential for cost-effectiveness in both settings, key modelling assumptions need to be verified and model findings remain tentative. No test-treat trials were retrieved. The economic model reflects one pattern of care, which will vary across the NHS. The systematic review and cost-effectiveness model identify uncertainties about the adoption of GPP tests within the NHS. GPP testing will generally correctly identify pathogens identified by conventional testing; however, these tests also generate considerable additional positive results of uncertain clinical importance. An independent reference standard may not exist to evaluate alternative approaches to testing. A test-treat trial might ascertain whether or not additional GPP 'positives' are clinically important or result in overdiagnoses, whether or not earlier diagnosis leads to earlier discharge in patients and what the health consequences of earlier intervention are. Future work might also consider the public health impact of different testing treatments, as test results form the basis for public health surveillance. This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD2016033320. The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Measuring the Hubble constant with Type Ia supernovae as near-infrared standard candles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhawan, Suhail; Jha, Saurabh W.; Leibundgut, Bruno

2018-01-01

The most precise local measurements of H0 rely on observations of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) coupled with Cepheid distances to SN Ia host galaxies. Recent results have shown tension comparing H0 to the value inferred from CMB observations assuming ΛCDM, making it important to check for potential systematic uncertainties in either approach. To date, precise local H0 measurements have used SN Ia distances based on optical photometry, with corrections for light curve shape and colour. Here, we analyse SNe Ia as standard candles in the near-infrared (NIR), where luminosity variations in the supernovae and extinction by dust are both reduced relative to the optical. From a combined fit to 9 nearby calibrator SNe with host Cepheid distances from Riess et al. (2016) and 27 SNe in the Hubble flow, we estimate the absolute peak J magnitude MJ = -18.524 ± 0.041 mag and H0 = 72.8 ± 1.6 (statistical) ±2.7 (systematic) km s-1 Mpc-1. The 2.2% statistical uncertainty demonstrates that the NIR provides a compelling avenue to measuring SN Ia distances, and for our sample the intrinsic (unmodeled) peak J magnitude scatter is just 0.10 mag, even without light curve shape or colour corrections. Our results do not vary significantly with different sample selection criteria, though photometric calibration in the NIR may be a dominant systematic uncertainty. Our findings suggest that tension in the competing H0 distance ladders is likely not a result of supernova systematics that could be expected to vary between optical and NIR wavelengths, like dust extinction. We anticipate further improvements in H0 with a larger calibrator sample of SNe Ia with Cepheid distances, more Hubble flow SNe Ia with NIR light curves, and better use of the full NIR photometric data set beyond simply the peak J-band magnitude.

Data analysis and systematic studies for the He-6 experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagdasarova, Yelena; Bailey, Kevin; Flechard, Xavier; Garcia, Alejandro; Hong, Ran; Leredde, Aranud; Mueller, Peter; Naviliat-Cuncic, Oscar; O'Connor, Tom P.; Sternberg, Matthew; Storm, Derek; Swanson, Erik; Wauters, Frederik; Zumwalt, David

2015-10-01

The He-6 experiment at the University of Washington aims to precisely measure the beta-neutrino angular correlation (aβν) in the beta decay of He-6, a parameter that is particularly sensitive to tensor-like currents in the electroweak interaction. The experiment is based on a coincidence detection of the beta and recoil ion emitted from laser trapped He-6 and seeks to ultimately measure aβν to the 0 . 1 % level. Monte-carlo simulations of the decay and detection scheme are essential to analyze the data and have been extensively used to quantify the effects of systematic uncertainties. Major efforts have been put in to limit their contributions to less than 1 % of aβν, the first goal of the experiment. This set of data will guide further improvements of the experiment towards the 0 . 1 % level measurement of aβν. The data analysis procedures and the current status of the experiment, including the achieved and projected systematic and statistical uncertainties, will be presented. This work is supported by DOE, Office of Nuclear Physics, under Contract Nos. DE-AC02-06CH11357 and DE-FG02-97ER41020. Done...processed 665 records...13:57:12

Land Surface Verification Toolkit (LVT) - A Generalized Framework for Land Surface Model Evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Santanello, Joseph; Harrison, Ken; Liu, Yuqiong; Shaw, Michael

2011-01-01

Model evaluation and verification are key in improving the usage and applicability of simulation models for real-world applications. In this article, the development and capabilities of a formal system for land surface model evaluation called the Land surface Verification Toolkit (LVT) is described. LVT is designed to provide an integrated environment for systematic land model evaluation and facilitates a range of verification approaches and analysis capabilities. LVT operates across multiple temporal and spatial scales and employs a large suite of in-situ, remotely sensed and other model and reanalysis datasets in their native formats. In addition to the traditional accuracy-based measures, LVT also includes uncertainty and ensemble diagnostics, information theory measures, spatial similarity metrics and scale decomposition techniques that provide novel ways for performing diagnostic model evaluations. Though LVT was originally designed to support the land surface modeling and data assimilation framework known as the Land Information System (LIS), it also supports hydrological data products from other, non-LIS environments. In addition, the analysis of diagnostics from various computational subsystems of LIS including data assimilation, optimization and uncertainty estimation are supported within LVT. Together, LIS and LVT provide a robust end-to-end environment for enabling the concepts of model data fusion for hydrological applications. The evolving capabilities of LVT framework are expected to facilitate rapid model evaluation efforts and aid the definition and refinement of formal evaluation procedures for the land surface modeling community.

Comparison between bottom-up and top-down approaches in the estimation of measurement uncertainty.

PubMed

Lee, Jun Hyung; Choi, Jee-Hye; Youn, Jae Saeng; Cha, Young Joo; Song, Woonheung; Park, Ae Ja

2015-06-01

Measurement uncertainty is a metrological concept to quantify the variability of measurement results. There are two approaches to estimate measurement uncertainty. In this study, we sought to provide practical and detailed examples of the two approaches and compare the bottom-up and top-down approaches to estimating measurement uncertainty. We estimated measurement uncertainty of the concentration of glucose according to CLSI EP29-A guideline. Two different approaches were used. First, we performed a bottom-up approach. We identified the sources of uncertainty and made an uncertainty budget and assessed the measurement functions. We determined the uncertainties of each element and combined them. Second, we performed a top-down approach using internal quality control (IQC) data for 6 months. Then, we estimated and corrected systematic bias using certified reference material of glucose (NIST SRM 965b). The expanded uncertainties at the low glucose concentration (5.57 mmol/L) by the bottom-up approach and top-down approaches were ±0.18 mmol/L and ±0.17 mmol/L, respectively (all k=2). Those at the high glucose concentration (12.77 mmol/L) by the bottom-up and top-down approaches were ±0.34 mmol/L and ±0.36 mmol/L, respectively (all k=2). We presented practical and detailed examples for estimating measurement uncertainty by the two approaches. The uncertainties by the bottom-up approach were quite similar to those by the top-down approach. Thus, we demonstrated that the two approaches were approximately equivalent and interchangeable and concluded that clinical laboratories could determine measurement uncertainty by the simpler top-down approach.

Top-pair production at hadron colliders with next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic soft-gluon resummation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cacciari, Matteo; Czakon, Michał; Mangano, Michelangelo; Mitov, Alexander; Nason, Paolo

2012-04-01

Incorporating all recent theoretical advances, we resum soft-gluon corrections to the total ttbar cross-section at hadron colliders at the next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic (NNLL) order. We perform the resummation in the well established framework of Mellin N-space resummation. We exhaustively study the sources of systematic uncertainty like renormalization and factorization scale variation, power suppressed effects and missing two- and higher-loop corrections. The inclusion of soft-gluon resummation at NNLL brings only a minor decrease in the perturbative uncertainty with respect to the NLL approximation, and a small shift in the central value, consistent with the quoted uncertainties. These numerical predictions agree with the currently available measurements from the Tevatron and LHC and have uncertainty of similar size. We conclude that significant improvements in the ttbar cross-sections can potentially be expected only upon inclusion of the complete NNLO corrections.

First Observation of a Baryonic Bs0 Decay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aaij, R.; Adeva, B.; Adinolfi, M.; Ajaltouni, Z.; Akar, S.; Albrecht, J.; Alessio, F.; Alexander, M.; Ali, S.; Alkhazov, G.; Alvarez Cartelle, P.; Alves, A. A.; Amato, S.; Amerio, S.; Amhis, Y.; An, L.; Anderlini, L.; Andreassi, G.; Andreotti, M.; Andrews, J. E.; Appleby, R. B.; Archilli, F.; d'Argent, P.; Arnau Romeu, J.; Artamonov, A.; Artuso, M.; Aslanides, E.; Auriemma, G.; Baalouch, M.; Babuschkin, I.; Bachmann, S.; Back, J. J.; Badalov, A.; Baesso, C.; Baker, S.; Balagura, V.; Baldini, W.; Baranov, A.; Barlow, R. J.; Barschel, C.; Barsuk, S.; Barter, W.; Baryshnikov, F.; Baszczyk, M.; Batozskaya, V.; Battista, V.; Bay, A.; Beaucourt, L.; Beddow, J.; Bedeschi, F.; Bediaga, I.; Beiter, A.; Bel, L. J.; Bellee, V.; Belloli, N.; Belous, K.; Belyaev, I.; Ben-Haim, E.; Bencivenni, G.; Benson, S.; Beranek, S.; Berezhnoy, A.; Bernet, R.; Bertolin, A.; Betancourt, C.; Betti, F.; Bettler, M.-O.; van Beuzekom, M.; Bezshyiko, Ia.; Bifani, S.; Billoir, P.; Birnkraut, A.; Bitadze, A.; Bizzeti, A.; Blake, T.; Blanc, F.; Blouw, J.; Blusk, S.; Bocci, V.; Boettcher, T.; Bondar, A.; Bondar, N.; Bonivento, W.; Bordyuzhin, I.; Borgheresi, A.; Borghi, S.; Borisyak, M.; Borsato, M.; Bossu, F.; Boubdir, M.; Bowcock, T. J. V.; Bowen, E.; Bozzi, C.; Braun, S.; Britton, T.; Brodzicka, J.; Buchanan, E.; Burr, C.; Bursche, A.; Buytaert, J.; Cadeddu, S.; Calabrese, R.; Calvi, M.; Calvo Gomez, M.; Camboni, A.; Campana, P.; Campora Perez, D. H.; Capriotti, L.; Carbone, A.; Carboni, G.; Cardinale, R.; Cardini, A.; Carniti, P.; Carson, L.; Carvalho Akiba, K.; Casse, G.; Cassina, L.; Castillo Garcia, L.; Cattaneo, M.; Cavallero, G.; Cenci, R.; Chamont, D.; Charles, M.; Charpentier, Ph.; Chatzikonstantinidis, G.; Chefdeville, M.; Chen, S.; Cheung, S. F.; Chobanova, V.; Chrzaszcz, M.; Chubykin, A.; Cid Vidal, X.; Ciezarek, G.; Clarke, P. E. L.; Clemencic, M.; Cliff, H. V.; Closier, J.; Coco, V.; Cogan, J.; Cogneras, E.; Cogoni, V.; Cojocariu, L.; Collins, P.; Comerma-Montells, A.; Contu, A.; Cook, A.; Coombs, G.; Coquereau, S.; Corti, G.; Corvo, M.; Costa Sobral, C. M.; Couturier, B.; Cowan, G. A.; Craik, D. C.; Crocombe, A.; Cruz Torres, M.; Cunliffe, S.; Currie, R.; D'Ambrosio, C.; Da Cunha Marinho, F.; Dall'Occo, E.; Dalseno, J.; Davis, A.; De Aguiar Francisco, O.; De Bruyn, K.; De Capua, S.; De Cian, M.; De Miranda, J. M.; De Paula, L.; De Serio, M.; De Simone, P.; Dean, C. T.; Decamp, D.; Deckenhoff, M.; Del Buono, L.; Dembinski, H.-P.; Demmer, M.; Dendek, A.; Derkach, D.; Deschamps, O.; Dettori, F.; Dey, B.; Di Canto, A.; Di Nezza, P.; Dijkstra, H.; Dordei, F.; Dorigo, M.; Dosil Suárez, A.; Dovbnya, A.; Dreimanis, K.; Dufour, L.; Dujany, G.; Dungs, K.; Durante, P.; Dzhelyadin, R.; Dziewiecki, M.; Dziurda, A.; Dzyuba, A.; Déléage, N.; Easo, S.; Ebert, M.; Egede, U.; Egorychev, V.; Eidelman, S.; Eisenhardt, S.; Eitschberger, U.; Ekelhof, R.; Eklund, L.; Ely, S.; Esen, S.; Evans, H. M.; Evans, T.; Falabella, A.; Farley, N.; Farry, S.; Fay, R.; Fazzini, D.; Ferguson, D.; Fernandez, G.; Fernandez Prieto, A.; Ferrari, F.; Ferreira Rodrigues, F.; Ferro-Luzzi, M.; Filippov, S.; Fini, R. A.; Fiore, M.; Fiorini, M.; Firlej, M.; Fitzpatrick, C.; Fiutowski, T.; Fleuret, F.; Fohl, K.; Fontana, M.; Fontanelli, F.; Forshaw, D. C.; Forty, R.; Franco Lima, V.; Frank, M.; Frei, C.; Fu, J.; Funk, W.; Furfaro, E.; Färber, C.; Gabriel, E.; Gallas Torreira, A.; Galli, D.; Gallorini, S.; Gambetta, S.; Gandelman, M.; Gandini, P.; Gao, Y.; Garcia Martin, L. M.; García Pardiñas, J.; Garra Tico, J.; Garrido, L.; Garsed, P. J.; Gascon, D.; Gaspar, C.; Gavardi, L.; Gazzoni, G.; Gerick, D.; Gersabeck, E.; Gersabeck, M.; Gershon, T.; Ghez, Ph.; Gianı, S.; Gibson, V.; Girard, O. G.; Giubega, L.; Gizdov, K.; Gligorov, V. V.; Golubkov, D.; Golutvin, A.; Gomes, A.; Gorelov, I. V.; Gotti, C.; Govorkova, E.; Graciani Diaz, R.; Granado Cardoso, L. A.; Graugés, E.; Graverini, E.; Graziani, G.; Grecu, A.; Greim, R.; Griffith, P.; Grillo, L.; Gruber, L.; Gruberg Cazon, B. R.; Grünberg, O.; Gushchin, E.; Guz, Yu.; Gys, T.; Göbel, C.; Hadavizadeh, T.; Hadjivasiliou, C.; Haefeli, G.; Haen, C.; Haines, S. C.; Hamilton, B.; Han, X.; Hansmann-Menzemer, S.; Harnew, N.; Harnew, S. T.; Harrison, J.; Hatch, M.; He, J.; Head, T.; Heister, A.; Hennessy, K.; Henrard, P.; Henry, L.; van Herwijnen, E.; Heß, M.; Hicheur, A.; Hill, D.; Hombach, C.; Hopchev, P. H.; Huard, Z.-C.; Hulsbergen, W.; Humair, T.; Hushchyn, M.; Hutchcroft, D.; Idzik, M.; Ilten, P.; Jacobsson, R.; Jalocha, J.; Jans, E.; Jawahery, A.; Jiang, F.; John, M.; Johnson, D.; Jones, C. R.; Joram, C.; Jost, B.; Jurik, N.; Kandybei, S.; Karacson, M.; Kariuki, J. M.; Karodia, S.; Kecke, M.; Kelsey, M.; Kenzie, M.; Ketel, T.; Khairullin, E.; Khanji, B.; Khurewathanakul, C.; Kirn, T.; Klaver, S.; Klimaszewski, K.; Klimkovich, T.; Koliiev, S.; Kolpin, M.; Komarov, I.; Kopecna, R.; Koppenburg, P.; Kosmyntseva, A.; Kotriakhova, S.; Kozeiha, M.; Kravchuk, L.; Kreps, M.; Krokovny, P.; Kruse, F.; Krzemien, W.; Kucewicz, W.; Kucharczyk, M.; Kudryavtsev, V.; Kuonen, A. K.; Kurek, K.; Kvaratskheliya, T.; Lacarrere, D.; Lafferty, G.; Lai, A.; Lanfranchi, G.; Langenbruch, C.; Latham, T.; Lazzeroni, C.; Le Gac, R.; van Leerdam, J.; Leflat, A.; Lefrançois, J.; Lefèvre, R.; Lemaitre, F.; Lemos Cid, E.; Leroy, O.; Lesiak, T.; Leverington, B.; Li, T.; Li, Y.; Li, Z.; Likhomanenko, T.; Lindner, R.; Lionetto, F.; Liu, X.; Loh, D.; Longstaff, I.; Lopes, J. H.; Lucchesi, D.; Lucio Martinez, M.; Luo, H.; Lupato, A.; Luppi, E.; Lupton, O.; Lusiani, A.; Lyu, X.; Machefert, F.; Maciuc, F.; Maddock, B.; Maev, O.; Maguire, K.; Malde, S.; Malinin, A.; Maltsev, T.; Manca, G.; Mancinelli, G.; Manning, P.; Maratas, J.; Marchand, J. F.; Marconi, U.; Marin Benito, C.; Marinangeli, M.; Marino, P.; Marks, J.; Martellotti, G.; Martin, M.; Martinelli, M.; Martinez Santos, D.; Martinez Vidal, F.; Martins Tostes, D.; Massacrier, L. M.; Massafferri, A.; Matev, R.; Mathad, A.; Mathe, Z.; Matteuzzi, C.; Mauri, A.; Maurice, E.; Maurin, B.; Mazurov, A.; McCann, M.; McNab, A.; McNulty, R.; Meadows, B.; Meier, F.; Melnychuk, D.; Merk, M.; Merli, A.; Michielin, E.; Milanes, D. A.; Minard, M.-N.; Mitzel, D. S.; Mogini, A.; Molina Rodriguez, J.; Monroy, I. A.; Monteil, S.; Morandin, M.; Morello, M. J.; Morgunova, O.; Moron, J.; Morris, A. B.; Mountain, R.; Muheim, F.; Mulder, M.; Mussini, M.; Müller, D.; Müller, J.; Müller, K.; Müller, V.; Naik, P.; Nakada, T.; Nandakumar, R.; Nandi, A.; Nasteva, I.; Needham, M.; Neri, N.; Neubert, S.; Neufeld, N.; Neuner, M.; Nguyen, T. D.; Nguyen-Mau, C.; Nieswand, S.; Niet, R.; Nikitin, N.; Nikodem, T.; Nogay, A.; O'Hanlon, D. P.; Oblakowska-Mucha, A.; Obraztsov, V.; Ogilvy, S.; Oldeman, R.; Onderwater, C. J. G.; Ossowska, A.; Otalora Goicochea, J. M.; Owen, P.; Oyanguren, A.; Pais, P. R.; Palano, A.; Palutan, M.; Papanestis, A.; Pappagallo, M.; Pappalardo, L. L.; Pappenheimer, C.; Parker, W.; Parkes, C.; Passaleva, G.; Pastore, A.; Patel, M.; Patrignani, C.; Pearce, A.; Pellegrino, A.; Penso, G.; Pepe Altarelli, M.; Perazzini, S.; Perret, P.; Pescatore, L.; Petridis, K.; Petrolini, A.; Petrov, A.; Petruzzo, M.; Picatoste Olloqui, E.; Pietrzyk, B.; Pikies, M.; Pinci, D.; Pistone, A.; Piucci, A.; Placinta, V.; Playfer, S.; Plo Casasus, M.; Poikela, T.; Polci, F.; Poli Lener, M.; Poluektov, A.; Polyakov, I.; Polycarpo, E.; Pomery, G. J.; Ponce, S.; Popov, A.; Popov, D.; Popovici, B.; Poslavskii, S.; Potterat, C.; Price, E.; Prisciandaro, J.; Prouve, C.; Pugatch, V.; Puig Navarro, A.; Punzi, G.; Qian, C.; Qian, W.; Quagliani, R.; Rachwal, B.; Rademacker, J. H.; Rama, M.; Ramos Pernas, M.; Rangel, M. S.; Raniuk, I.; Ratnikov, F.; Raven, G.; Ravonel Salzgeber, M.; Reboud, M.; Redi, F.; Reichert, S.; dos Reis, A. C.; Remon Alepuz, C.; Renaudin, V.; Ricciardi, S.; Richards, S.; Rihl, M.; Rinnert, K.; Rives Molina, V.; Robbe, P.; Rodrigues, A. B.; Rodrigues, E.; Rodriguez Lopez, J. A.; Rodriguez Perez, P.; Rogozhnikov, A.; Roiser, S.; Rollings, A.; Romanovskiy, V.; Romero Vidal, A.; Ronayne, J. W.; Rotondo, M.; Rudolph, M. S.; Ruf, T.; Ruiz Valls, P.; Saborido Silva, J. J.; Sadykhov, E.; Sagidova, N.; Saitta, B.; Salustino Guimaraes, V.; Sanchez Gonzalo, D.; Sanchez Mayordomo, C.; Sanmartin Sedes, B.; Santacesaria, R.; Santamarina Rios, C.; Santimaria, M.; Santovetti, E.; Sarti, A.; Satriano, C.; Satta, A.; Saunders, D. M.; Savrina, D.; Schael, S.; Schellenberg, M.; Schiller, M.; Schindler, H.; Schlupp, M.; Schmelling, M.; Schmelzer, T.; Schmidt, B.; Schneider, O.; Schopper, A.; Schreiner, H. F.; Schubert, K.; Schubiger, M.; Schune, M.-H.; Schwemmer, R.; Sciascia, B.; Sciubba, A.; Semennikov, A.; Sergi, A.; Serra, N.; Serrano, J.; Sestini, L.; Seyfert, P.; Shapkin, M.; Shapoval, I.; Shcheglov, Y.; Shears, T.; Shekhtman, L.; Shevchenko, V.; Siddi, B. G.; Silva Coutinho, R.; Silva de Oliveira, L.; Simi, G.; Simone, S.; Sirendi, M.; Skidmore, N.; Skwarnicki, T.; Smith, E.; Smith, I. T.; Smith, J.; Smith, M.; Soares Lavra, l.; Sokoloff, M. D.; Soler, F. J. P.; Souza De Paula, B.; Spaan, B.; Spradlin, P.; Sridharan, S.; Stagni, F.; Stahl, M.; Stahl, S.; Stefko, P.; Stefkova, S.; Steinkamp, O.; Stemmle, S.; Stenyakin, O.; Stevens, H.; Stoica, S.; Stone, S.; Storaci, B.; Stracka, S.; Stramaglia, M. E.; Straticiuc, M.; Straumann, U.; Sun, L.; Sutcliffe, W.; Swientek, K.; Syropoulos, V.; Szczekowski, M.; Szumlak, T.; T'Jampens, S.; Tayduganov, A.; Tekampe, T.; Tellarini, G.; Teubert, F.; Thomas, E.; van Tilburg, J.; Tilley, M. J.; Tisserand, V.; Tobin, M.; Tolk, S.; Tomassetti, L.; Tonelli, D.; Topp-Joergensen, S.; Toriello, F.; Tourinho Jadallah Aoude, R.; Tournefier, E.; Tourneur, S.; Trabelsi, K.; Traill, M.; Tran, M. T.; Tresch, M.; Trisovic, A.; Tsaregorodtsev, A.; Tsopelas, P.; Tully, A.; Tuning, N.; Ukleja, A.; Ustyuzhanin, A.; Uwer, U.; Vacca, C.; Vagner, A.; Vagnoni, V.; Valassi, A.; Valat, S.; Valenti, G.; Vazquez Gomez, R.; Vazquez Regueiro, P.; Vecchi, S.; van Veghel, M.; Velthuis, J. J.; Veltri, M.; Veneziano, G.; Venkateswaran, A.; Verlage, T. A.; Vernet, M.; Vesterinen, M.; Viana Barbosa, J. V.; Viaud, B.; Vieira, D.; Vieites Diaz, M.; Viemann, H.; Vilasis-Cardona, X.; Vitti, M.; Volkov, V.; Vollhardt, A.; Voneki, B.; Vorobyev, A.; Vorobyev, V.; Voß, C.; de Vries, J. A.; Vázquez Sierra, C.; Waldi, R.; Wallace, C.; Wallace, R.; Walsh, J.; Wang, J.; Ward, D. R.; Wark, H. M.; Watson, N. K.; Websdale, D.; Weiden, A.; Whitehead, M.; Wicht, J.; Wilkinson, G.; Wilkinson, M.; Williams, M.; Williams, M. P.; Williams, M.; Williams, T.; Wilson, F. F.; Wimberley, J.; Winn, M. A.; Wishahi, J.; Wislicki, W.; Witek, M.; Wormser, G.; Wotton, S. A.; Wraight, K.; Wyllie, K.; Xie, Y.; Xu, Z.; Yang, Z.; Yang, Z.; Yao, Y.; Yin, H.; Yu, J.; Yuan, X.; Yushchenko, O.; Zarebski, K. A.; Zavertyaev, M.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, Y.; Zhelezov, A.; Zheng, Y.; Zhu, X.; Zhukov, V.; Zonneveld, J. B.; Zucchelli, S.; LHCb Collaboration

2017-07-01

We report the first observation of a baryonic Bs0 decay, Bs0→p Λ ¯K- , using proton-proton collision data recorded by the LHCb experiment at center-of-mass energies of 7 and 8 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.0 fb-1. The branching fraction is measured to be B (Bs0→p Λ ¯ K- )+B (Bs0→p ¯ Λ K+ )=[5.46 ±0.61 ±0.57 ±0.50 (B )±0.32 (fs/fd)] ×10-6 , where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic, the third uncertainty accounts for the experimental uncertainty on the branching fraction of the B0→p Λ ¯π- decay used for normalization, and the fourth uncertainty relates to the knowledge of the ratio of b -quark hadronization probabilities fs/fd.

Confronting dynamics and uncertainty in optimal decision making for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

2013-01-01

The effectiveness of conservation efforts ultimately depends on the recognition that decision making, and the systems that it is designed to affect, are inherently dynamic and characterized by multiple sources of uncertainty. To cope with these challenges, conservation planners are increasingly turning to the tools of decision analysis, especially dynamic optimization methods. Here we provide a general framework for optimal, dynamic conservation and then explore its capacity for coping with various sources and degrees of uncertainty. In broadest terms, the dynamic optimization problem in conservation is choosing among a set of decision options at periodic intervals so as to maximize some conservation objective over the planning horizon. Planners must account for immediate objective returns, as well as the effect of current decisions on future resource conditions and, thus, on future decisions. Undermining the effectiveness of such a planning process are uncertainties concerning extant resource conditions (partial observability), the immediate consequences of decision choices (partial controllability), the outcomes of uncontrolled, environmental drivers (environmental variation), and the processes structuring resource dynamics (structural uncertainty). Where outcomes from these sources of uncertainty can be described in terms of probability distributions, a focus on maximizing the expected objective return, while taking state-specific actions, is an effective mechanism for coping with uncertainty. When such probability distributions are unavailable or deemed unreliable, a focus on maximizing robustness is likely to be the preferred approach. Here the idea is to choose an action (or state-dependent policy) that achieves at least some minimum level of performance regardless of the (uncertain) outcomes. We provide some examples of how the dynamic optimization problem can be framed for problems involving management of habitat for an imperiled species, conservation of a critically endangered population through captive breeding, control of invasive species, construction of biodiversity reserves, design of landscapes to increase habitat connectivity, and resource exploitation. Although these decision making problems and their solutions present significant challenges, we suggest that a systematic and effective approach to dynamic decision making in conservation need not be an onerous undertaking. The requirements are shared with any systematic approach to decision making--a careful consideration of values, actions, and outcomes.

Confronting dynamics and uncertainty in optimal decision making for conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

2013-06-01

The effectiveness of conservation efforts ultimately depends on the recognition that decision making, and the systems that it is designed to affect, are inherently dynamic and characterized by multiple sources of uncertainty. To cope with these challenges, conservation planners are increasingly turning to the tools of decision analysis, especially dynamic optimization methods. Here we provide a general framework for optimal, dynamic conservation and then explore its capacity for coping with various sources and degrees of uncertainty. In broadest terms, the dynamic optimization problem in conservation is choosing among a set of decision options at periodic intervals so as to maximize some conservation objective over the planning horizon. Planners must account for immediate objective returns, as well as the effect of current decisions on future resource conditions and, thus, on future decisions. Undermining the effectiveness of such a planning process are uncertainties concerning extant resource conditions (partial observability), the immediate consequences of decision choices (partial controllability), the outcomes of uncontrolled, environmental drivers (environmental variation), and the processes structuring resource dynamics (structural uncertainty). Where outcomes from these sources of uncertainty can be described in terms of probability distributions, a focus on maximizing the expected objective return, while taking state-specific actions, is an effective mechanism for coping with uncertainty. When such probability distributions are unavailable or deemed unreliable, a focus on maximizing robustness is likely to be the preferred approach. Here the idea is to choose an action (or state-dependent policy) that achieves at least some minimum level of performance regardless of the (uncertain) outcomes. We provide some examples of how the dynamic optimization problem can be framed for problems involving management of habitat for an imperiled species, conservation of a critically endangered population through captive breeding, control of invasive species, construction of biodiversity reserves, design of landscapes to increase habitat connectivity, and resource exploitation. Although these decision making problems and their solutions present significant challenges, we suggest that a systematic and effective approach to dynamic decision making in conservation need not be an onerous undertaking. The requirements are shared with any systematic approach to decision making—a careful consideration of values, actions, and outcomes.

Estimating uncertainty of Full Waveform Inversion with Ensemble-based methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thurin, J.; Brossier, R.; Métivier, L.

2017-12-01

Uncertainty estimation is one key feature of tomographic applications for robust interpretation. However, this information is often missing in the frame of large scale linearized inversions, and only the results at convergence are shown, despite the ill-posed nature of the problem. This issue is common in the Full Waveform Inversion community.While few methodologies have already been proposed in the literature, standard FWI workflows do not include any systematic uncertainty quantifications methods yet, but often try to assess the result's quality through cross-comparison with other results from seismic or comparison with other geophysical data. With the development of large seismic networks/surveys, the increase in computational power and the more and more systematic application of FWI, it is crucial to tackle this problem and to propose robust and affordable workflows, in order to address the uncertainty quantification problem faced for near surface targets, crustal exploration, as well as regional and global scales.In this work (Thurin et al., 2017a,b), we propose an approach which takes advantage of the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) proposed by Bishop et al., (2001), in order to estimate a low-rank approximation of the posterior covariance matrix of the FWI problem, allowing us to evaluate some uncertainty information of the solution. Instead of solving the FWI problem through a Bayesian inversion with the ETKF, we chose to combine a conventional FWI, based on local optimization, and the ETKF strategies. This scheme allows combining the efficiency of local optimization for solving large scale inverse problems and make the sampling of the local solution space possible thanks to its embarrassingly parallel property. References:Bishop, C. H., Etherton, B. J. and Majumdar, S. J., 2001. Adaptive sampling with the ensemble transform Kalman filter. Part I: Theoretical aspects. Monthly weather review, 129(3), 420-436.Thurin, J., Brossier, R. and Métivier, L. 2017,a.: Ensemble-Based Uncertainty Estimation in Full Waveform Inversion. 79th EAGE Conference and Exhibition 2017, (12 - 15 June, 2017)Thurin, J., Brossier, R. and Métivier, L. 2017,b.: An Ensemble-Transform Kalman Filter - Full Waveform Inversion scheme for Uncertainty estimation; SEG Technical Program Expanded Abstracts 2012

PANCHROMATIC HUBBLE ANDROMEDA TREASURY. XII. MAPPING STELLAR METALLICITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN M31

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gregersen, Dylan; Seth, Anil C.; Williams, Benjamin F.

We present a study of spatial variations in the metallicity of old red giant branch stars in the Andromeda galaxy. Photometric metallicity estimates are derived by interpolating isochrones for over seven million stars in the Panchromatic Hubble Andromeda Treasury (PHAT) survey. This is the first systematic study of stellar metallicities over the inner 20 kpc of Andromeda’s galactic disk. We see a clear metallicity gradient of −0.020 ± 0.004 dex kpc{sup −1} from ∼4–20 kpc assuming a constant red giant branch age. This metallicity gradient is derived after correcting for the effects of photometric bias and completeness and dust extinction, and ismore » quite insensitive to these effects. The unknown age gradient in M31's disk creates the dominant systematic uncertainty in our derived metallicity gradient. However, spectroscopic analyses of galaxies similar to M31 show that they typically have small age gradients that make this systematic error comparable to the 1σ error on our metallicity gradient measurement. In addition to the metallicity gradient, we observe an asymmetric local enhancement in metallicity at radii of 3–6 kpc that appears to be associated with Andromeda’s elongated bar. This same region also appears to have an enhanced stellar density and velocity dispersion.« less

MAX-DOAS measurements of HONO slant column densities during the MAD-CAT campaign: inter-comparison, sensitivity studies on spectral analysis settings, and error budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yang; Beirle, Steffen; Hendrick, Francois; Hilboll, Andreas; Jin, Junli; Kyuberis, Aleksandra A.; Lampel, Johannes; Li, Ang; Luo, Yuhan; Lodi, Lorenzo; Ma, Jianzhong; Navarro, Monica; Ortega, Ivan; Peters, Enno; Polyansky, Oleg L.; Remmers, Julia; Richter, Andreas; Puentedura, Olga; Van Roozendael, Michel; Seyler, André; Tennyson, Jonathan; Volkamer, Rainer; Xie, Pinhua; Zobov, Nikolai F.; Wagner, Thomas

2017-10-01

In order to promote the development of the passive DOAS technique the Multi Axis DOAS - Comparison campaign for Aerosols and Trace gases (MAD-CAT) was held at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz, Germany, from June to October 2013. Here, we systematically compare the differential slant column densities (dSCDs) of nitrous acid (HONO) derived from measurements of seven different instruments. We also compare the tropospheric difference of SCDs (delta SCD) of HONO, namely the difference of the SCDs for the non-zenith observations and the zenith observation of the same elevation sequence. Different research groups analysed the spectra from their own instruments using their individual fit software. All the fit errors of HONO dSCDs from the instruments with cooled large-size detectors are mostly in the range of 0.1 to 0.3 × 1015 molecules cm-2 for an integration time of 1 min. The fit error for the mini MAX-DOAS is around 0.7 × 1015 molecules cm-2. Although the HONO delta SCDs are normally smaller than 6 × 1015 molecules cm-2, consistent time series of HONO delta SCDs are retrieved from the measurements of different instruments. Both fits with a sequential Fraunhofer reference spectrum (FRS) and a daily noon FRS lead to similar consistency. Apart from the mini-MAX-DOAS, the systematic absolute differences of HONO delta SCDs between the instruments are smaller than 0.63 × 1015 molecules cm-2. The correlation coefficients are higher than 0.7 and the slopes of linear regressions deviate from unity by less than 16 % for the elevation angle of 1°. The correlations decrease with an increase in elevation angle. All the participants also analysed synthetic spectra using the same baseline DOAS settings to evaluate the systematic errors of HONO results from their respective fit programs. In general the errors are smaller than 0.3 × 1015 molecules cm-2, which is about half of the systematic difference between the real measurements.The differences of HONO delta SCDs retrieved in the selected three spectral ranges 335-361, 335-373 and 335-390 nm are considerable (up to 0.57 × 1015 molecules cm-2) for both real measurements and synthetic spectra. We performed sensitivity studies to quantify the dominant systematic error sources and to find a recommended DOAS setting in the three spectral ranges. The results show that water vapour absorption, temperature and wavelength dependence of O4 absorption, temperature dependence of Ring spectrum, and polynomial and intensity offset correction all together dominate the systematic errors. We recommend a fit range of 335-373 nm for HONO retrievals. In such fit range the overall systematic uncertainty is about 0.87 × 1015 molecules cm-2, much smaller than those in the other two ranges. The typical random uncertainty is estimated to be about 0.16 × 1015 molecules cm-2, which is only 25 % of the total systematic uncertainty for most of the instruments in the MAD-CAT campaign. In summary for most of the MAX-DOAS instruments for elevation angle below 5°, half daytime measurements (usually in the morning) of HONO delta SCD can be over the detection limit of 0.2 × 1015 molecules cm-2 with an uncertainty of ˜ 0.9 × 1015 molecules cm-2.

Within-Tunnel Variations in Pressure Data for Three Transonic Wind Tunnels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLoach, Richard

2014-01-01

This paper compares the results of pressure measurements made on the same test article with the same test matrix in three transonic wind tunnels. A comparison is presented of the unexplained variance associated with polar replicates acquired in each tunnel. The impact of a significance component of systematic (not random) unexplained variance is reviewed, and the results of analyses of variance are presented to assess the degree of significant systematic error in these representative wind tunnel tests. Total uncertainty estimates are reported for 140 samples of pressure data, quantifying the effects of within-polar random errors and between-polar systematic bias errors.

Managing uncertainty in collaborative robotics engineering projects: The influence of task structure and peer interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, Michelle

Uncertainty is ubiquitous in life, and learning is an activity particularly likely to be fraught with uncertainty. Previous research suggests that students and teachers struggle in their attempts to manage the psychological experience of uncertainty and that students often fail to experience uncertainty when uncertainty may be warranted. Yet, few educational researchers have explicitly and systematically observed what students do, their behaviors and strategies, as they attempt to manage the uncertainty they experience during academic tasks. In this study I investigated how students in one fifth grade class managed uncertainty they experienced while engaged in collaborative robotics engineering projects, focusing particularly on how uncertainty management was influenced by task structure and students' interactions with their peer collaborators. The study was initiated at the beginning of instruction related to robotics engineering and preceded through the completion of several long-term collaborative robotics projects, one of which was a design project. I relied primarily on naturalistic observation of group sessions, semi-structured interviews, and collection of artifacts. My data analysis was inductive and interpretive, using qualitative discourse analysis techniques and methods of grounded theory. Three theoretical frameworks influenced the conception and design of this study: community of practice, distributed cognition, and complex adaptive systems theory. Uncertainty was a pervasive experience for the students collaborating in this instructional context. Students experienced uncertainty related to the project activity and uncertainty related to the social system as they collaborated to fulfill the requirements of their robotics engineering projects. They managed their uncertainty through a diverse set of tactics for reducing, ignoring, maintaining, and increasing uncertainty. Students experienced uncertainty from more different sources and used more and different types of uncertainty management strategies in the less structured task setting than in the more structured task setting. Peer interaction was influential because students relied on supportive social response to enact most of their uncertainty management strategies. When students could not garner socially supportive response from their peers, their options for managing uncertainty were greatly reduced.

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.

PubMed

Tversky, A; Kahneman, D

1974-09-27

This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; (ii) availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and (iii) adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available. These heuristics are highly economical and usually effective, but they lead to systematic and predictable errors. A better understanding of these heuristics and of the biases to which they lead could improve judgements and decisions in situations of uncertainty.

Making framing of uncertainty in water management practice explicit by using a participant-structured approach.

PubMed

Isendahl, Nicola; Dewulf, Art; Pahl-Wostl, Claudia

2010-01-01

By now, the need for addressing uncertainty in the management of water resources is widely recognized, yet there is little expertise and experience how to effectively deal with uncertainty in practice. Uncertainties in water management practice so far are mostly dealt with intuitively or based on experience. That way decisions can be quickly taken but analytic processes of deliberate reasoning are bypassed. To meet the desire of practitioners for better guidance and tools how to deal with uncertainty more practice-oriented systematic approaches are needed. For that purpose we consider it important to understand how practitioners frame uncertainties. In this paper we present an approach where water managers developed criteria of relevance to understand and address uncertainties. The empirical research took place in the Doñana region of the Guadalquivir estuary in southern Spain making use of the method of card sorting. Through the card sorting exercise a broad range of criteria to make sense of and describe uncertainties was produced by different subgroups, which were then merged into a shared list of criteria. That way framing differences were made explicit and communication on uncertainty and on framing differences was enhanced. In that, the present approach constitutes a first step to enabling reframing and overcoming framing differences, which are important features on the way to robust decision-making. Moreover, the elaborated criteria build a basis for the development of more structured approaches to deal with uncertainties in water management practice. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis.

PubMed

Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

2014-03-01

GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty-sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights.

A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

2014-03-01

GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty-sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights.

Entropic uncertainty for spin-1/2 XXX chains in the presence of inhomogeneous magnetic fields and its steering via weak measurement reversals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dong; Ming, Fei; Huang, Ai-Jun; Sun, Wen-Yang; Ye, Liu

2017-09-01

The uncertainty principle configures a low bound to the measuring precision for a pair of non-commuting observables, and hence is considerably nontrivial to quantum precision measurement in the field of quantum information theory. In this letter, we consider the entropic uncertainty relation (EUR) in the context of quantum memory in a two-qubit isotropic Heisenberg spin chain. Specifically, we explore the dynamics of EUR in a practical scenario, where two associated nodes of a one-dimensional XXX-spin chain, under an inhomogeneous magnetic field, are connected to a thermal entanglement. We show that the temperature and magnetic field effect can lead to the inflation of the measuring uncertainty, stemming from the reduction of systematic quantum correlation. Notably, we reveal that, firstly, the uncertainty is not fully dependent on the observed quantum correlation of the system; secondly, the dynamical behaviors of the measuring uncertainty are relatively distinct with respect to ferromagnetism and antiferromagnetism chains. Meanwhile, we deduce that the measuring uncertainty is dramatically correlated with the mixedness of the system, implying that smaller mixedness tends to reduce the uncertainty. Furthermore, we propose an effective strategy to control the uncertainty of interest by means of quantum weak measurement reversal. Therefore, our work may shed light on the dynamics of the measuring uncertainty in the Heisenberg spin chain, and thus be important to quantum precision measurement in various solid-state systems.

Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Crop models are essential to assess the threat of climate change for food production but have not been systematically tested against temperature experiments, despite demonstrated uncertainty in temperature response. Herein, we compare 30 different wheat crop models against field experiments in which...

Improved entrance optic for global irradiance measurements with a Brewer spectrophotometer.

PubMed

Gröbner, Julian

2003-06-20

A new entrance optic for a Brewer spectrophotometer has been designed and tested both in the laboratory and during solar measurements. The integrated cosine response deviates by 2.4% from the ideal, with an uncertainty of +/- 1%. The systematic uncertainties of global solar irradiance measurements with this new entrance optic are considerably reduced compared with measurements with the traditional design. Simultaneous solar irradiance measurements between the Brewer spectrophotometer and a spectroradiometer equipped with a state-of-the-art shaped diffuser agreed to within +/- 2% during a five-day measurement period.

Potential uncertainty reduction in model-averaged benchmark dose estimates informed by an additional dose study.

PubMed

Shao, Kan; Small, Mitchell J

2011-10-01

A methodology is presented for assessing the information value of an additional dosage experiment in existing bioassay studies. The analysis demonstrates the potential reduction in the uncertainty of toxicity metrics derived from expanded studies, providing insights for future studies. Bayesian methods are used to fit alternative dose-response models using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation for parameter estimation and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is used to compare and combine the alternative models. BMA predictions for benchmark dose (BMD) are developed, with uncertainty in these predictions used to derive the lower bound BMDL. The MCMC and BMA results provide a basis for a subsequent Monte Carlo analysis that backcasts the dosage where an additional test group would have been most beneficial in reducing the uncertainty in the BMD prediction, along with the magnitude of the expected uncertainty reduction. Uncertainty reductions are measured in terms of reduced interval widths of predicted BMD values and increases in BMDL values that occur as a result of this reduced uncertainty. The methodology is illustrated using two existing data sets for TCDD carcinogenicity, fitted with two alternative dose-response models (logistic and quantal-linear). The example shows that an additional dose at a relatively high value would have been most effective for reducing the uncertainty in BMA BMD estimates, with predicted reductions in the widths of uncertainty intervals of approximately 30%, and expected increases in BMDL values of 5-10%. The results demonstrate that dose selection for studies that subsequently inform dose-response models can benefit from consideration of how these models will be fit, combined, and interpreted. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Bias analysis applied to Agricultural Health Study publications to estimate non-random sources of uncertainty.

PubMed

Lash, Timothy L

2007-11-26

The associations of pesticide exposure with disease outcomes are estimated without the benefit of a randomized design. For this reason and others, these studies are susceptible to systematic errors. I analyzed studies of the associations between alachlor and glyphosate exposure and cancer incidence, both derived from the Agricultural Health Study cohort, to quantify the bias and uncertainty potentially attributable to systematic error. For each study, I identified the prominent result and important sources of systematic error that might affect it. I assigned probability distributions to the bias parameters that allow quantification of the bias, drew a value at random from each assigned distribution, and calculated the estimate of effect adjusted for the biases. By repeating the draw and adjustment process over multiple iterations, I generated a frequency distribution of adjusted results, from which I obtained a point estimate and simulation interval. These methods were applied without access to the primary record-level dataset. The conventional estimates of effect associating alachlor and glyphosate exposure with cancer incidence were likely biased away from the null and understated the uncertainty by quantifying only random error. For example, the conventional p-value for a test of trend in the alachlor study equaled 0.02, whereas fewer than 20% of the bias analysis iterations yielded a p-value of 0.02 or lower. Similarly, the conventional fully-adjusted result associating glyphosate exposure with multiple myleoma equaled 2.6 with 95% confidence interval of 0.7 to 9.4. The frequency distribution generated by the bias analysis yielded a median hazard ratio equal to 1.5 with 95% simulation interval of 0.4 to 8.9, which was 66% wider than the conventional interval. Bias analysis provides a more complete picture of true uncertainty than conventional frequentist statistical analysis accompanied by a qualitative description of study limitations. The latter approach is likely to lead to overconfidence regarding the potential for causal associations, whereas the former safeguards against such overinterpretations. Furthermore, such analyses, once programmed, allow rapid implementation of alternative assignments of probability distributions to the bias parameters, so elevate the plane of discussion regarding study bias from characterizing studies as "valid" or "invalid" to a critical and quantitative discussion of sources of uncertainty.

Can the EVIDEM Framework Tackle Issues Raised by Evaluating Treatments for Rare Diseases: Analysis of Issues and Policies, and Context-Specific Adaptation.

PubMed

Wagner, Monika; Khoury, Hanane; Willet, Jacob; Rindress, Donna; Goetghebeur, Mireille

2016-03-01

The multiplicity of issues, including uncertainty and ethical dilemmas, and policies involved in appraising interventions for rare diseases suggests that multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) based on a holistic definition of value is uniquely suited for this purpose. The objective of this study was to analyze and further develop a comprehensive MCDA framework (EVIDEM) to address rare disease issues and policies, while maintaining its applicability across disease areas. Specific issues and policies for rare diseases were identified through literature review. Ethical and methodological foundations of the EVIDEM framework v3.0 were systematically analyzed from the perspective of these issues, and policies and modifications of the framework were performed accordingly to ensure their integration. Analysis showed that the framework integrates ethical dilemmas and issues inherent to appraising interventions for rare diseases but required further integration of specific aspects. Modification thus included the addition of subcriteria to further differentiate disease severity, disease-specific treatment outcomes, and economic consequences of interventions for rare diseases. Scoring scales were further developed to include negative scales for all comparative criteria. A methodology was established to incorporate context-specific population priorities and policies, such as those for rare diseases, into the quantitative part of the framework. This design allows making more explicit trade-offs between competing ethical positions of fairness (prioritization of those who are worst off), the goal of benefiting as many people as possible, the imperative to help, and wise use of knowledge and resources. It also allows addressing variability in institutional policies regarding prioritization of specific disease areas, in addition to existing uncertainty analysis available from EVIDEM. The adapted framework measures value in its widest sense, while being responsive to rare disease issues and policies. It provides an operationalizable platform to integrate values, competing ethical dilemmas, and uncertainty in appraising healthcare interventions.

A Bayesian approach to modeling 2D gravity data using polygon states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titus, W. J.; Titus, S.; Davis, J. R.

2015-12-01

We present a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the 2D gravity inversion of a localized subsurface object with constant density contrast. Our models have four parameters: the density contrast, the number of vertices in a polygonal approximation of the object, an upper bound on the ratio of the perimeter squared to the area, and the vertices of a polygon container that bounds the object. Reasonable parameter values can be estimated prior to inversion using a forward model and geologic information. In addition, we assume that the field data have a common random uncertainty that lies between two bounds but that it has no systematic uncertainty. Finally, we assume that there is no uncertainty in the spatial locations of the measurement stations. For any set of model parameters, we use MCMC methods to generate an approximate probability distribution of polygons for the object. We then compute various probability distributions for the object, including the variance between the observed and predicted fields (an important quantity in the MCMC method), the area, the center of area, and the occupancy probability (the probability that a spatial point lies within the object). In addition, we compare probabilities of different models using parallel tempering, a technique which also mitigates trapping in local optima that can occur in certain model geometries. We apply our method to several synthetic data sets generated from objects of varying shape and location. We also analyze a natural data set collected across the Rio Grande Gorge Bridge in New Mexico, where the object (i.e. the air below the bridge) is known and the canyon is approximately 2D. Although there are many ways to view results, the occupancy probability proves quite powerful. We also find that the choice of the container is important. In particular, large containers should be avoided, because the more closely a container confines the object, the better the predictions match properties of object.

Robust artificial neural network for reliability and sensitivity analyses of complex non-linear systems.

PubMed

Oparaji, Uchenna; Sheu, Rong-Jiun; Bankhead, Mark; Austin, Jonathan; Patelli, Edoardo

2017-12-01

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are commonly used in place of expensive models to reduce the computational burden required for uncertainty quantification, reliability and sensitivity analyses. ANN with selected architecture is trained with the back-propagation algorithm from few data representatives of the input/output relationship of the underlying model of interest. However, different performing ANNs might be obtained with the same training data as a result of the random initialization of the weight parameters in each of the network, leading to an uncertainty in selecting the best performing ANN. On the other hand, using cross-validation to select the best performing ANN based on the ANN with the highest R 2 value can lead to biassing in the prediction. This is as a result of the fact that the use of R 2 cannot determine if the prediction made by ANN is biased. Additionally, R 2 does not indicate if a model is adequate, as it is possible to have a low R 2 for a good model and a high R 2 for a bad model. Hence, in this paper, we propose an approach to improve the robustness of a prediction made by ANN. The approach is based on a systematic combination of identical trained ANNs, by coupling the Bayesian framework and model averaging. Additionally, the uncertainties of the robust prediction derived from the approach are quantified in terms of confidence intervals. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach, two synthetic numerical examples are presented. Finally, the proposed approach is used to perform a reliability and sensitivity analyses on a process simulation model of a UK nuclear effluent treatment plant developed by National Nuclear Laboratory (NNL) and treated in this study as a black-box employing a set of training data as a test case. This model has been extensively validated against plant and experimental data and used to support the UK effluent discharge strategy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Planck 2015 results: IX. Diffuse component separation: CMB maps

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adam, R.; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.

In this paper, we present foreground-reduced cosmic microwave background (CMB) maps derived from the full Planck data set in both temperature and polarization. Compared to the corresponding Planck 2013 temperature sky maps, the total data volume is larger by a factor of 3.2 for frequencies between 30 and 70 GHz, and by 1.9 for frequencies between 100 and 857 GHz. In addition, systematic errors in the forms of temperature-to-polarization leakage, analogue-to-digital conversion uncertainties, and very long time constant errors have been dramatically reduced, to the extent that the cosmological polarization signal may now be robustly recovered on angular scales ℓ ≳ 40. On the very largest scales, instrumental systematic residuals are still non-negligible compared to the expected cosmological signal, and modes with ℓ< 20 are accordingly suppressed in the current polarization maps by high-pass filtering. As in 2013, four different CMB component separation algorithms are applied to these observations, providing a measure of stability with respect to algorithmic and modelling choices. Additionally, the resulting polarization maps have rms instrumental noise ranging between 0.21 and 0.27μK averaged over 55' pixels, and between 4.5 and 6.1μK averaged over 3more » $$'\\atop{.}$$4 pixels. The cosmological parameters derived from the analysis of temperature power spectra are in agreement at the 1σ level with the Planck 2015 likelihood. Unresolved mismatches between the noise properties of the data and simulations prevent a satisfactory description of the higher-order statistical properties of the polarization maps. Thus, the primary applications of these polarization maps are those that do not require massive simulations for accurate estimation of uncertainties, for instance estimation of cross-spectra and cross-correlations, or stacking analyses. However, the amplitude of primordial non-Gaussianity is consistent with zero within 2σ for all local, equilateral, and orthogonal configurations of the bispectrum, including for polarization E-modes. Moreover, excellent agreement is found regarding the lensing B-mode power spectrum, both internally among the various component separation codes and with the best-fit Planck 2015 Λ cold dark matter model.« less

Planck 2015 results: IX. Diffuse component separation: CMB maps

DOE PAGES

Adam, R.; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; ...

2016-09-20

In this paper, we present foreground-reduced cosmic microwave background (CMB) maps derived from the full Planck data set in both temperature and polarization. Compared to the corresponding Planck 2013 temperature sky maps, the total data volume is larger by a factor of 3.2 for frequencies between 30 and 70 GHz, and by 1.9 for frequencies between 100 and 857 GHz. In addition, systematic errors in the forms of temperature-to-polarization leakage, analogue-to-digital conversion uncertainties, and very long time constant errors have been dramatically reduced, to the extent that the cosmological polarization signal may now be robustly recovered on angular scales ℓ ≳ 40. On the very largest scales, instrumental systematic residuals are still non-negligible compared to the expected cosmological signal, and modes with ℓ< 20 are accordingly suppressed in the current polarization maps by high-pass filtering. As in 2013, four different CMB component separation algorithms are applied to these observations, providing a measure of stability with respect to algorithmic and modelling choices. Additionally, the resulting polarization maps have rms instrumental noise ranging between 0.21 and 0.27μK averaged over 55' pixels, and between 4.5 and 6.1μK averaged over 3more » $$'\\atop{.}$$4 pixels. The cosmological parameters derived from the analysis of temperature power spectra are in agreement at the 1σ level with the Planck 2015 likelihood. Unresolved mismatches between the noise properties of the data and simulations prevent a satisfactory description of the higher-order statistical properties of the polarization maps. Thus, the primary applications of these polarization maps are those that do not require massive simulations for accurate estimation of uncertainties, for instance estimation of cross-spectra and cross-correlations, or stacking analyses. However, the amplitude of primordial non-Gaussianity is consistent with zero within 2σ for all local, equilateral, and orthogonal configurations of the bispectrum, including for polarization E-modes. Moreover, excellent agreement is found regarding the lensing B-mode power spectrum, both internally among the various component separation codes and with the best-fit Planck 2015 Λ cold dark matter model.« less

Measurement of high-energy neutron flux above ground utilizing a spallation based multiplicity technique

DOE PAGES

Roecker, Caleb; Bernstein, Adam; Marleau, Peter; ...

2016-11-14

Cosmogenic high-energy neutrons are a ubiquitous, difficult to shield, poorly measured background. Above ground the high-energy neutron energy-dependent flux has been measured, with significantly varying results. Below ground, high-energy neutron fluxes are largely unmeasured. Here we present a reconstruction algorithm to unfold the incident neutron energy-dependent flux measured using the Multiplicity and Recoil Spectrometer (MARS), simulated test cases to verify the algorithm, and provide a new measurement of the above ground high-energy neutron energy-dependent flux with a detailed systematic uncertainty analysis. Uncertainty estimates are provided based upon the measurement statistics, the incident angular distribution, the surrounding environment of the Montemore » Carlo model, and the MARS triggering efficiency. Quantified systematic uncertainty is dominated by the assumed incident neutron angular distribution and surrounding environment of the Monte Carlo model. The energy-dependent neutron flux between 90 MeV and 400 MeV is reported. Between 90 MeV and 250 MeV the MARS results are comparable to previous Bonner sphere measurements. Over the total energy regime measured, the MARS result are located within the span of previous measurements. Lastly, these results demonstrate the feasibility of future below ground measurements with MARS.« less

Measurement of high-energy neutron flux above ground utilizing a spallation based multiplicity technique

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roecker, Caleb; Bernstein, Adam; Marleau, Peter

Cosmogenic high-energy neutrons are a ubiquitous, difficult to shield, poorly measured background. Above ground the high-energy neutron energy-dependent flux has been measured, with significantly varying results. Below ground, high-energy neutron fluxes are largely unmeasured. Here we present a reconstruction algorithm to unfold the incident neutron energy-dependent flux measured using the Multiplicity and Recoil Spectrometer (MARS), simulated test cases to verify the algorithm, and provide a new measurement of the above ground high-energy neutron energy-dependent flux with a detailed systematic uncertainty analysis. Uncertainty estimates are provided based upon the measurement statistics, the incident angular distribution, the surrounding environment of the Montemore » Carlo model, and the MARS triggering efficiency. Quantified systematic uncertainty is dominated by the assumed incident neutron angular distribution and surrounding environment of the Monte Carlo model. The energy-dependent neutron flux between 90 MeV and 400 MeV is reported. Between 90 MeV and 250 MeV the MARS results are comparable to previous Bonner sphere measurements. Over the total energy regime measured, the MARS result are located within the span of previous measurements. Lastly, these results demonstrate the feasibility of future below ground measurements with MARS.« less

Uncertainty Calculations in the First Introductory Physics Laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Shafiqur

2005-03-01

Uncertainty in a measured quantity is an integral part of reporting any experimental data. Consequently, Introductory Physics laboratories at many institutions require that students report the values of the quantities being measured as well as their uncertainties. Unfortunately, given that there are three main ways of calculating uncertainty, each suitable for particular situations (which is usually not explained in the lab manual), this is also an area that students feel highly confused about. It frequently generates large number of complaints in the end-of-the semester course evaluations. Students at some institutions are not asked to calculate uncertainty at all, which gives them a fall sense of the nature of experimental data. Taking advantage of the increased sophistication in the use of computers and spreadsheets that students are coming to college with, we have completely restructured our first Introductory Physics Lab to address this problem. Always in the context of a typical lab, we now systematically and sequentially introduce the various ways of calculating uncertainty including a theoretical understanding as opposed to a cookbook approach, all within the context of six three-hour labs. Complaints about the lab in student evaluations have dropped by 80%. * supported by a grant from A. V. Davis Foundation

Uncertainty Analysis of Sonic Boom Levels Measured in a Simulator at NASA Langley

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rathsam, Jonathan; Ely, Jeffry W.

2012-01-01

A sonic boom simulator has been constructed at NASA Langley Research Center for testing the human response to sonic booms heard indoors. Like all measured quantities, sonic boom levels in the simulator are subject to systematic and random errors. To quantify these errors, and their net influence on the measurement result, a formal uncertainty analysis is conducted. Knowledge of the measurement uncertainty, or range of values attributable to the quantity being measured, enables reliable comparisons among measurements at different locations in the simulator as well as comparisons with field data or laboratory data from other simulators. The analysis reported here accounts for acoustic excitation from two sets of loudspeakers: one loudspeaker set at the facility exterior that reproduces the exterior sonic boom waveform and a second set of interior loudspeakers for reproducing indoor rattle sounds. The analysis also addresses the effect of pressure fluctuations generated when exterior doors of the building housing the simulator are opened. An uncertainty budget is assembled to document each uncertainty component, its sensitivity coefficient, and the combined standard uncertainty. The latter quantity will be reported alongside measurement results in future research reports to indicate data reliability.

The Fermi Galactic Center GeV Excess and Implications for Dark Matter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ackermann, M.; Buehler, R.; Ajello, M.

2017-05-01

The region around the Galactic Center (GC) is now well established to be brighter at energies of a few GeV than what is expected from conventional models of diffuse gamma-ray emission and catalogs of known gamma-ray sources. We study the GeV excess using 6.5 yr of data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope. We characterize the uncertainty of the GC excess spectrum and morphology due to uncertainties in cosmic-ray source distributions and propagation, uncertainties in the distribution of interstellar gas in the Milky Way, and uncertainties due to a potential contribution from the Fermi bubbles. We also evaluate uncertainties inmore » the excess properties due to resolved point sources of gamma rays. The GC is of particular interest, as it would be expected to have the brightest signal from annihilation of weakly interacting massive dark matter (DM) particles. However, control regions along the Galactic plane, where a DM signal is not expected, show excesses of similar amplitude relative to the local background. Based on the magnitude of the systematic uncertainties, we conservatively report upper limits for the annihilation cross-section as a function of particle mass and annihilation channel.« less

Processing of higher count rates in Troitsk nu-mass experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nozik, Alexander; Chernov, Vaslily

2018-04-01

In this article we give a short outline of current status of search for sterile neutrinos with masses up to 4 keV in "Troitsk nu-mass experiment". We also discuss major sources of systematic uncertainties and methods to lower them.

6th international conference on case histories in geotechnical engineering August 2008conference report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

Due to uncertainty in the nature of soils, a systematic study of the performance of geotechnical structures and its match with predictions is extremely important. Therefore, considerable research effort is being devoted to geotechnical engineering th...

Margaret Wheatley on Leadership for Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steinberger, Elizabeth Donohoe

1995-01-01

Wheatley's 1992 bestseller, "Leadership and the New Science," argues that across scientific disciplines, our rational, systematic quest for order, control, stability, and predictability are yielding to a deeper appreciation for chaos, complexity, uncertainty, and change. In this interview, Wheatley shows how breakthroughs in biology,…

Uncertainty of Comparative Judgments and Multidimensional Structure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sjoberg, Lennart

1975-01-01

An analysis of preferences with respect to silhouette drawings of nude females is presented. Systematic intransitivities were discovered. The dispersions of differences (comparatal dispersons) were shown to reflect the multidimensional structure of the stimuli, a finding expected on the basis of prior work. (Author)

Predicting the Earth encounters of (99942) Apophis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Giorgini, Jon D.; Benner, Lance A. M.; Ostro, Steven J.; Nolan, Michael C.; Busch, Michael W.

2007-01-01

Arecibo delay-Doppler measurements of (99942) Apophis in 2005 and 2006 resulted in a five standard-deviation trajectory correction to the optically predicted close approach distance to Earth in 2029. The radar measurements reduced the volume of the statistical uncertainty region entering the encounter to 7.3% of the pre-radar solution, but increased the trajectory uncertainty growth rate across the encounter by 800% due to the closer predicted approach to the Earth. A small estimated Earth impact probability remained for 2036. With standard-deviation plane-of-sky position uncertainties for 2007-2010 already less than 0.2 arcsec, the best near-term ground-based optical astrometry can only weakly affect the trajectory estimate. While the potential for impact in 2036 will likely be excluded in 2013 (if not 2011) using ground-based optical measurements, approximations within the Standard Dynamical Model (SDM) used to estimate and predict the trajectory from the current era are sufficient to obscure the difference between a predicted impact and a miss in 2036 by altering the dynamics leading into the 2029 encounter. Normal impact probability assessments based on the SDM become problematic without knowledge of the object's physical properties; impact could be excluded while the actual dynamics still permit it. Calibrated position uncertainty intervals are developed to compensate for this by characterizing the minimum and maximum effect of physical parameters on the trajectory. Uncertainty in accelerations related to solar radiation can cause between 82 and 4720 Earth-radii of trajectory change relative to the SDM by 2036. If an actionable hazard exists, alteration by 2-10% of Apophis' total absorption of solar radiation in 2018 could be sufficient to produce a six standard-deviation trajectory change by 2036 given physical characterization; even a 0.5% change could produce a trajectory shift of one Earth-radius by 2036 for all possible spin-poles and likely masses. Planetary ephemeris uncertainties are the next greatest source of systematic error, causing up to 23 Earth-radii of uncertainty. The SDM Earth point-mass assumption introduces an additional 2.9 Earth-radii of prediction error by 2036. Unmodeled asteroid perturbations produce as much as 2.3 Earth-radii of error. We find no future small-body encounters likely to yield an Apophis mass determination prior to 2029. However, asteroid (144898) 2004 VD17, itself having a statistical Earth impact in 2102, will probably encounter Apophis at 6.7 lunar distances in 2034, their uncertainty regions coming as close as 1.6 lunar distances near the center of both SDM probability distributions.

Towards SI-traceable radio occultation excess phase processing with integrated uncertainty estimation for climate applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Innerkofler, Josef; Pock, Christian; Kirchengast, Gottfried; Schwaerz, Marc; Jaeggi, Adrian; Schwarz, Jakob

2016-04-01

The GNSS Radio Occultation (RO) measurement technique is highly valuable for climate monitoring of the atmosphere as it provides accurate and precise measurements in the troposphere and stratosphere regions with global coverage, long-term stability, and virtually all-weather capability. The novel Reference Occultation Processing System (rOPS), currently under development at the WEGC at University of Graz aims to process raw RO measurements into essential climate variables, such as temperature, pressure, and tropospheric water vapor, in a way which is SI-traceable to the universal time standard and which includes rigorous uncertainty propagation. As part of this rOPS climate-quality processing system, accurate atmospheric excess phase profiles with new approaches integrating uncertainty propagation are derived from the raw occultation tracking data and orbit data. Regarding the latter, highly accurate orbit positions and velocities of the GNSS transmitter satellites and the RO receiver satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) need to be determined, in order to enable high accuracy of the excess phase profiles. Using several representative test days of GPS orbit data from the CODE and IGS archives, which are available at accuracies of about 3 cm (position) / 0.03 mm/s (velocity), and employing Bernese 5.2 and Napeos 3.3.1 software packages for the LEO orbit determination of the CHAMP, GRACE, and MetOp RO satellites, we achieved robust SI-traced LEO orbit uncertainty estimates of about 5 cm (position) / 0.05 mm/s (velocity) for the daily orbits, including estimates of systematic uncertainty bounds and of propagated random uncertainties. For COSMIC RO satellites, we found decreased accuracy estimates near 10-15 cm (position) / 0.1-0.15 mm/s (velocity), since the characteristics of the small COSMIC satellite platforms and antennas provide somewhat less favorable orbit determination conditions. We present the setup of how we (I) used the Bernese and Napeos package in mutual cross-check for this purpose, (II) integrated satellite laser-ranging validation of the estimated systematic uncertainty bounds, (III) expanded the Bernese 5.2 software for propagating random uncertainties from the GPS orbit data and LEO navigation tracking data input to the LEO data output. Preliminary excess phase results including propagated uncertainty estimates will also be shown. Except for disturbed space weather conditions, we expect a robust performance at millimeter level for the derived excess phases, which after large-scale processing of the RO data of many years can provide a new SI-traced fundamental climate data record.

Uncertainty of rotating shadowband irradiometers and Si-pyranometers including the spectral irradiance error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilbert, Stefan; Kleindiek, Stefan; Nouri, Bijan; Geuder, Norbert; Habte, Aron; Schwandt, Marko; Vignola, Frank

2016-05-01

Concentrating solar power projects require accurate direct normal irradiance (DNI) data including uncertainty specifications for plant layout and cost calculations. Ground measured data are necessary to obtain the required level of accuracy and are often obtained with Rotating Shadowband Irradiometers (RSI) that use photodiode pyranometers and correction functions to account for systematic effects. The uncertainty of Si-pyranometers has been investigated, but so far basically empirical studies were published or decisive uncertainty influences had to be estimated based on experience in analytical studies. One of the most crucial estimated influences is the spectral irradiance error because Si-photodiode-pyranometers only detect visible and color infrared radiation and have a spectral response that varies strongly within this wavelength interval. Furthermore, analytic studies did not discuss the role of correction functions and the uncertainty introduced by imperfect shading. In order to further improve the bankability of RSI and Si-pyranometer data, a detailed uncertainty analysis following the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) has been carried out. The study defines a method for the derivation of the spectral error and spectral uncertainties and presents quantitative values of the spectral and overall uncertainties. Data from the PSA station in southern Spain was selected for the analysis. Average standard uncertainties for corrected 10 min data of 2 % for global horizontal irradiance (GHI), and 2.9 % for DNI (for GHI and DNI over 300 W/m²) were found for the 2012 yearly dataset when separate GHI and DHI calibration constants were used. Also the uncertainty in 1 min resolution was analyzed. The effect of correction functions is significant. The uncertainties found in this study are consistent with results of previous empirical studies.

Uncertainty of Rotating Shadowband Irradiometers and Si-Pyranometers Including the Spectral Irradiance Error

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilbert, Stefan; Kleindiek, Stefan; Nouri, Bijan

2016-05-31

Concentrating solar power projects require accurate direct normal irradiance (DNI) data including uncertainty specifications for plant layout and cost calculations. Ground measured data are necessary to obtain the required level of accuracy and are often obtained with Rotating Shadowband Irradiometers (RSI) that use photodiode pyranometers and correction functions to account for systematic effects. The uncertainty of Si-pyranometers has been investigated, but so far basically empirical studies were published or decisive uncertainty influences had to be estimated based on experience in analytical studies. One of the most crucial estimated influences is the spectral irradiance error because Si-photodiode-pyranometers only detect visible andmore » color infrared radiation and have a spectral response that varies strongly within this wavelength interval. Furthermore, analytic studies did not discuss the role of correction functions and the uncertainty introduced by imperfect shading. In order to further improve the bankability of RSI and Si-pyranometer data, a detailed uncertainty analysis following the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) has been carried out. The study defines a method for the derivation of the spectral error and spectral uncertainties and presents quantitative values of the spectral and overall uncertainties. Data from the PSA station in southern Spain was selected for the analysis. Average standard uncertainties for corrected 10 min data of 2% for global horizontal irradiance (GHI), and 2.9% for DNI (for GHI and DNI over 300 W/m2) were found for the 2012 yearly dataset when separate GHI and DHI calibration constants were used. Also the uncertainty in 1 min resolution was analyzed. The effect of correction functions is significant. The uncertainties found in this study are consistent with results of previous empirical studies.« less

Measuring Dark Energy Properties with Photometrically Classified Pan-STARRS Supernovae. II. Cosmological Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, D. O.; Scolnic, D. M.; Riess, A. G.; Rest, A.; Kirshner, R. P.; Berger, E.; Kessler, R.; Pan, Y.-C.; Foley, R. J.; Chornock, R.; Ortega, C. A.; Challis, P. J.; Burgett, W. S.; Chambers, K. C.; Draper, P. W.; Flewelling, H.; Huber, M. E.; Kaiser, N.; Kudritzki, R.-P.; Metcalfe, N.; Tonry, J.; Wainscoat, R. J.; Waters, C.; Gall, E. E. E.; Kotak, R.; McCrum, M.; Smartt, S. J.; Smith, K. W.

2018-04-01

We use 1169 Pan-STARRS supernovae (SNe) and 195 low-z (z < 0.1) SNe Ia to measure cosmological parameters. Though most Pan-STARRS SNe lack spectroscopic classifications, in a previous paper we demonstrated that photometrically classified SNe can be used to infer unbiased cosmological parameters by using a Bayesian methodology that marginalizes over core-collapse (CC) SN contamination. Our sample contains nearly twice as many SNe as the largest previous SN Ia compilation. Combining SNe with cosmic microwave background (CMB) constraints from Planck, we measure the dark energy equation-of-state parameter w to be ‑0.989 ± 0.057 (stat+sys). If w evolves with redshift as w(a) = w 0 + w a (1 ‑ a), we find w 0 = ‑0.912 ± 0.149 and w a = ‑0.513 ± 0.826. These results are consistent with cosmological parameters from the Joint Light-curve Analysis and the Pantheon sample. We try four different photometric classification priors for Pan-STARRS SNe and two alternate ways of modeling CC SN contamination, finding that no variant gives a w differing by more than 2% from the baseline measurement. The systematic uncertainty on w due to marginalizing over CC SN contamination, {σ }wCC}=0.012, is the third-smallest source of systematic uncertainty in this work. We find limited (1.6σ) evidence for evolution of the SN color-luminosity relation with redshift, a possible systematic that could constitute a significant uncertainty in future high-z analyses. Our data provide one of the best current constraints on w, demonstrating that samples with ∼5% CC SN contamination can give competitive cosmological constraints when the contaminating distribution is marginalized over in a Bayesian framework.

A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis☆

PubMed Central

Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

2014-01-01

GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster–Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty–sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights. PMID:25843987

Closing the wedge: Search strategies for extended Higgs sectors with heavy flavor final states

DOE PAGES

Gori, Stefania; Kim, Ian-Woo; Shah, Nausheen R.; ...

2016-04-29

We consider search strategies for an extended Higgs sector at the high-luminosity LHC14 utilizing multitop final states. In the framework of a two Higgs doublet model, the purely top final states (more » $$t\\bar{t}$$, 4t) are important channels for heavy Higgs bosons with masses in the wedge above 2m t and at low values of tanβ, while a 2b2t final state is most relevant at moderate values of tanβ. We find, in the $$t\\bar{t}$$ H channel, with H→$$t\\bar{t}$$, that both single and three lepton final states can provide statistically significant constraints at low values of tanβ for mA as high as ~750 GeV. When systematics on the $$t\\bar{t}$$ background are taken into account, however, the three lepton final state is more powerful, though the precise constraint depends fairly sensitively on lepton fake rates. We also find that neither 2b2t nor $$t\\bar{t}$$ final states provide constraints on additional heavy Higgs bosons with couplings to tops smaller than the top Yukawa due to expected systematic uncertainties in the tt background.« less

Methods for Assessing Uncertainties in Climate Change, Impacts and Responses (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manning, M. R.; Swart, R.

2009-12-01

Assessing the scientific uncertainties or confidence levels for the many different aspects of climate change is particularly important because of the seriousness of potential impacts and the magnitude of economic and political responses that are needed to mitigate climate change effectively. This has made the treatment of uncertainty and confidence a key feature in the assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Because climate change is very much a cross-disciplinary area of science, adequately dealing with uncertainties requires recognition of their wide range and different perspectives on assessing and communicating those uncertainties. The structural differences that exist across disciplines are often embedded deeply in the corresponding literature that is used as the basis for an IPCC assessment. The assessment of climate change science by the IPCC has from its outset tried to report the levels of confidence and uncertainty in the degree of understanding in both the underlying multi-disciplinary science and in projections for future climate. The growing recognition of the seriousness of this led to the formation of a detailed approach for consistent treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (TAR) [Moss and Schneider, 2000]. However, in completing the TAR there remained some systematic differences between the disciplines raising concerns about the level of consistency. So further consideration of a systematic approach to uncertainties was undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The basis for the approach used in the AR4 was developed at an expert meeting of scientists representing many different disciplines. This led to the introduction of a broader way of addressing uncertainties in the AR4 [Manning et al., 2004] which was further refined by lengthy discussions among many IPCC Lead Authors, for over a year, resulting in a short summary of a standard approach to be followed for that assessment [IPCC, 2005]. This paper extends a review of the treatment of uncertainty in the IPCC assessments by Swart et al [2009]. It is shown that progress towards consistency has been made but that there also appears to be a need for continued use of several complementary approaches in order to cover the wide range of circumstances across different disciplines involved in climate change. While this reflects the situation in the science community, it also raises the level of complexity for policymakers and other users of the assessments who would prefer one common consensus approach. References IPCC (2005), Guidance Notes for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on Addressing Uncertainties, IPCC, Geneva. Manning, M., et al. (2004), IPCC Workshop on Describing Scientific Uncertainties in Climate Change to Support Analysis of Risk and of Options. IPCC Moss, R., and S. Schneider (2000), Uncertainties, in Guidance Papers on the Cross Cutting Issues of the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, edited by R. Pachauri, et al., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Geneva. Swart, R., et al. (2009), Agreeing to disagree: uncertainty management in assessing climate change, impacts and responses by the IPCC Climatic Change, 92(1-2), 1 - 29.

Analytical Algorithms to Quantify the Uncertainty in Remaining Useful Life Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sankararaman, Shankar; Saxena, Abhinav; Daigle, Matthew; Goebel, Kai

2013-01-01

This paper investigates the use of analytical algorithms to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life (RUL) estimate of components used in aerospace applications. The prediction of RUL is affected by several sources of uncertainty and it is important to systematically quantify their combined effect by computing the uncertainty in the RUL prediction in order to aid risk assessment, risk mitigation, and decisionmaking. While sampling-based algorithms have been conventionally used for quantifying the uncertainty in RUL, analytical algorithms are computationally cheaper and sometimes, are better suited for online decision-making. While exact analytical algorithms are available only for certain special cases (for e.g., linear models with Gaussian variables), effective approximations can be made using the the first-order second moment method (FOSM), the first-order reliability method (FORM), and the inverse first-order reliability method (Inverse FORM). These methods can be used not only to calculate the entire probability distribution of RUL but also to obtain probability bounds on RUL. This paper explains these three methods in detail and illustrates them using the state-space model of a lithium-ion battery.

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2: Appendices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M.

1998-04-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library ofmore » uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.« less

Efficient Location Uncertainty Treatment for Probabilistic Modelling of Portfolio Loss from Earthquake Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheingraber, Christoph; Käser, Martin; Allmann, Alexander

2017-04-01

Probabilistic seismic risk analysis (PSRA) is a well-established method for modelling loss from earthquake events. In the insurance industry, it is widely employed for probabilistic modelling of loss to a distributed portfolio. In this context, precise exposure locations are often unknown, which results in considerable loss uncertainty. The treatment of exposure uncertainty has already been identified as an area where PSRA would benefit from increased research attention. However, so far, epistemic location uncertainty has not been in the focus of a large amount of research. We propose a new framework for efficient treatment of location uncertainty. To demonstrate the usefulness of this novel method, a large number of synthetic portfolios resembling real-world portfolios is systematically analyzed. We investigate the effect of portfolio characteristics such as value distribution, portfolio size, or proportion of risk items with unknown coordinates on loss variability. Several sampling criteria to increase the computational efficiency of the framework are proposed and put into the wider context of well-established Monte-Carlo variance reduction techniques. The performance of each of the proposed criteria is analyzed.

Plans for a measurement of the neutron lifetime to better than 0.3s using a Penning trap and absolute measurement of neutron fluence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulholland, Jonathan; NBL3 Collaboration

2014-09-01

The decay of the free neutron is the prototypical charged current semi-leptonic weak process. A precise value for the neutron lifetime is required for consistency tests of the Standard Model and is needed to predict the primordial He4 abundance from the theory of Big Bang Nucleosynthesis. Plans are being made for an in-beam measurement of the neutron lifetime with an anticipated 0.3s of uncertainty or better. This effort is part of a phased campaign of neutron lifetime measurements based at the NIST Center for Neutron Research, using the Sussex-ILL-NIST technique. Advances in neutron fluence measurement, used in to provide the best existing in-beam determination of the neutron lifetime, as well as new silicon detector technology, in use now at LANSCE, address the two largest contributors to the uncertainty of in-beam measurements-the statistical uncertainty associated with proton counting and the systematic uncertainty in the neutron fluence measurement. The experimental design and projected uncertainties for the 0.3s measurement will be discussed.

Proton and neutron electromagnetic form factors and uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ye, Zhihong; Arrington, John; Hill, Richard J.

We determine the nucleon electromagnetic form factors and their uncertainties from world electron scattering data. The analysis incorporates two-photon exchange corrections, constraints on the low-Q 2 and high-Q 2 behavior, and additional uncertainties to account for tensions between different data sets and uncertainties in radiative corrections.

Proton and neutron electromagnetic form factors and uncertainties

DOE PAGES

Ye, Zhihong; Arrington, John; Hill, Richard J.; ...

2017-12-06

We determine the nucleon electromagnetic form factors and their uncertainties from world electron scattering data. The analysis incorporates two-photon exchange corrections, constraints on the low-Q 2 and high-Q 2 behavior, and additional uncertainties to account for tensions between different data sets and uncertainties in radiative corrections.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Distances of Gaia DR1 TGAS sources (Astraatmadja+, 2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astraatmadja, T. L.; Bailer-Jones, C. A. L.

2016-09-01

This is a catalogue of distances and their asymmetric uncertainties inferred from the parallaxes published in the Gaia DR1 catalogue. Two priors are used: The exponentially decreasing space density and the Milky Way prior. For the exponentially decreasing space density prior, two scale lengths are used: 110pc and 1350pc. The former is based on a fitting of the true distance distribution of a subset of the GUMS catalogue (Robin et al., 2012, Cat. VI/137) which are limited to V<11. This is the magnitude at which Tycho-2 is 99% complete. The latter is based on the same procedure but limited to G=20.7, which is the expected limiting magnitude of Gaia. For the Milky Way prior, the parameters are described in the paper. We report the mode of the posterior PDF, the median, the 90% credible interval, and a standard deviation in distance which are calculated by scaling the 90% into 68.3%. The Cepheids data used for the validation of the results are included here as well. They are taken from Groenewegen (2013, Cat. J/A+A/550/A70) and cross-matched with Hipparcos and/or Tycho by making a Simbad query of each Cepheids and finding the corresponding Hipparcos and/or Tyho identifier. The distances are inferred either by neglecting the systematic uncertainties of 0.3mas (Gaia Collaboration et al., 2016, Cat. I/337) for reasons described in the paper, or by adding a systematic uncertainties of 0.3mas in quadrature with the random parallax uncertainties. We provide both results here. (4 data files).

Insights on the impact of systematic model errors on data assimilation performance in changing catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathiraja, S.; Anghileri, D.; Burlando, P.; Sharma, A.; Marshall, L.; Moradkhani, H.

2018-03-01

The global prevalence of rapid and extensive land use change necessitates hydrologic modelling methodologies capable of handling non-stationarity. This is particularly true in the context of Hydrologic Forecasting using Data Assimilation. Data Assimilation has been shown to dramatically improve forecast skill in hydrologic and meteorological applications, although such improvements are conditional on using bias-free observations and model simulations. A hydrologic model calibrated to a particular set of land cover conditions has the potential to produce biased simulations when the catchment is disturbed. This paper sheds new light on the impacts of bias or systematic errors in hydrologic data assimilation, in the context of forecasting in catchments with changing land surface conditions and a model calibrated to pre-change conditions. We posit that in such cases, the impact of systematic model errors on assimilation or forecast quality is dependent on the inherent prediction uncertainty that persists even in pre-change conditions. Through experiments on a range of catchments, we develop a conceptual relationship between total prediction uncertainty and the impacts of land cover changes on the hydrologic regime to demonstrate how forecast quality is affected when using state estimation Data Assimilation with no modifications to account for land cover changes. This work shows that systematic model errors as a result of changing or changed catchment conditions do not always necessitate adjustments to the modelling or assimilation methodology, for instance through re-calibration of the hydrologic model, time varying model parameters or revised offline/online bias estimation.

Hierarchical multi-scale approach to validation and uncertainty quantification of hyper-spectral image modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engel, Dave W.; Reichardt, Thomas A.; Kulp, Thomas J.; Graff, David L.; Thompson, Sandra E.

2016-05-01

Validating predictive models and quantifying uncertainties inherent in the modeling process is a critical component of the HARD Solids Venture program [1]. Our current research focuses on validating physics-based models predicting the optical properties of solid materials for arbitrary surface morphologies and characterizing the uncertainties in these models. We employ a systematic and hierarchical approach by designing physical experiments and comparing the experimental results with the outputs of computational predictive models. We illustrate this approach through an example comparing a micro-scale forward model to an idealized solid-material system and then propagating the results through a system model to the sensor level. Our efforts should enhance detection reliability of the hyper-spectral imaging technique and the confidence in model utilization and model outputs by users and stakeholders.

Numerical modelling of instantaneous plate tectonics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minster, J. B.; Haines, E.; Jordan, T. H.; Molnar, P.

1974-01-01

Assuming lithospheric plates to be rigid, 68 spreading rates, 62 fracture zones trends, and 106 earthquake slip vectors are systematically inverted to obtain a self-consistent model of instantaneous relative motions for eleven major plates. The inverse problem is linearized and solved iteratively by a maximum-likelihood procedure. Because the uncertainties in the data are small, Gaussian statistics are shown to be adequate. The use of a linear theory permits (1) the calculation of the uncertainties in the various angular velocity vectors caused by uncertainties in the data, and (2) quantitative examination of the distribution of information within the data set. The existence of a self-consistent model satisfying all the data is strong justification of the rigid plate assumption. Slow movement between North and South America is shown to be resolvable.

A Probabilistic Framework for Quantifying Mixed Uncertainties in Cyber Attacker Payoffs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chatterjee, Samrat; Tipireddy, Ramakrishna; Oster, Matthew R.

Quantification and propagation of uncertainties in cyber attacker payoffs is a key aspect within multiplayer, stochastic security games. These payoffs may represent penalties or rewards associated with player actions and are subject to various sources of uncertainty, including: (1) cyber-system state, (2) attacker type, (3) choice of player actions, and (4) cyber-system state transitions over time. Past research has primarily focused on representing defender beliefs about attacker payoffs as point utility estimates. More recently, within the physical security domain, attacker payoff uncertainties have been represented as Uniform and Gaussian probability distributions, and mathematical intervals. For cyber-systems, probability distributions may helpmore » address statistical (aleatory) uncertainties where the defender may assume inherent variability or randomness in the factors contributing to the attacker payoffs. However, systematic (epistemic) uncertainties may exist, where the defender may not have sufficient knowledge or there is insufficient information about the attacker’s payoff generation mechanism. Such epistemic uncertainties are more suitably represented as generalizations of probability boxes. This paper explores the mathematical treatment of such mixed payoff uncertainties. A conditional probabilistic reasoning approach is adopted to organize the dependencies between a cyber-system’s state, attacker type, player actions, and state transitions. This also enables the application of probabilistic theories to propagate various uncertainties in the attacker payoffs. An example implementation of this probabilistic framework and resulting attacker payoff distributions are discussed. A goal of this paper is also to highlight this uncertainty quantification problem space to the cyber security research community and encourage further advancements in this area.« less

Reducing Spatial Uncertainty Through Attentional Cueing Improves Contrast Sensitivity in Regions of the Visual Field With Glaucomatous Defects

PubMed Central

Phu, Jack; Kalloniatis, Michael; Khuu, Sieu K.

2018-01-01

Purpose Current clinical perimetric test paradigms present stimuli randomly to various locations across the visual field (VF), inherently introducing spatial uncertainty, which reduces contrast sensitivity. In the present study, we determined the extent to which spatial uncertainty affects contrast sensitivity in glaucoma patients by minimizing spatial uncertainty through attentional cueing. Methods Six patients with open-angle glaucoma and six healthy subjects underwent laboratory-based psychophysical testing to measure contrast sensitivity at preselected locations at two eccentricities (9.5° and 17.5°) with two stimulus sizes (Goldmann sizes III and V) under different cueing conditions: 1, 2, 4, or 8 points verbally cued. Method of Constant Stimuli and a single-interval forced-choice procedure were used to generate frequency of seeing (FOS) curves at locations with and without VF defects. Results At locations with VF defects, cueing minimizes spatial uncertainty and improves sensitivity under all conditions. The effect of cueing was maximal when one point was cued, and rapidly diminished when more points were cued (no change to baseline with 8 points cued). The slope of the FOS curve steepened with reduced spatial uncertainty. Locations with normal sensitivity in glaucomatous eyes had similar performance to that of healthy subjects. There was a systematic increase in uncertainty with the depth of VF loss. Conclusions Sensitivity measurements across the VF are negatively affected by spatial uncertainty, which increases with greater VF loss. Minimizing uncertainty can improve sensitivity at locations of deficit. Translational Relevance Current perimetric techniques introduce spatial uncertainty and may therefore underestimate sensitivity in regions of VF loss. PMID:29600116

Luminosity determination in pp collisions at $$\\sqrt{s} = 7$$ TeV using the ATLAS detector at the LHC

DOE PAGES

Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; Abdallah, J.; ...

2011-04-27

Measurements of luminosity obtained using the ATLAS detector during early running of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at √s = 7 TeV are presented. The luminosity is independently determined using several detectors and multiple algorithms, each having different acceptances, systematic uncertainties and sensitivity to background. The ratios of the luminosities obtained from these methods are monitored as a function of time and of μ, the average number of inelastic interactions per bunch crossing. Residual time- and μ-dependence between the methods is less than 2% for 0 < μ < 2.5. Absolute luminosity calibrations, performed using beam separation scans, have amore » common systematic uncertainty of ±11%, dominated by the measurement of the LHC beam currents. After calibration, the luminosities obtained from the different methods differ by at most ±2%. The visible cross sections measured using the beam scans are compared to predictions obtained with the PYTHIA and PHOJET event generators and the ATLAS detector simulation.« less

Decorrelated jet substructure tagging using adversarial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimmin, Chase; Sadowski, Peter; Baldi, Pierre; Weik, Edison; Whiteson, Daniel; Goul, Edward; Søgaard, Andreas

2017-10-01

We describe a strategy for constructing a neural network jet substructure tagger which powerfully discriminates boosted decay signals while remaining largely uncorrelated with the jet mass. This reduces the impact of systematic uncertainties in background modeling while enhancing signal purity, resulting in improved discovery significance relative to existing taggers. The network is trained using an adversarial strategy, resulting in a tagger that learns to balance classification accuracy with decorrelation. As a benchmark scenario, we consider the case where large-radius jets originating from a boosted resonance decay are discriminated from a background of nonresonant quark and gluon jets. We show that in the presence of systematic uncertainties on the background rate, our adversarially trained, decorrelated tagger considerably outperforms a conventionally trained neural network, despite having a slightly worse signal-background separation power. We generalize the adversarial training technique to include a parametric dependence on the signal hypothesis, training a single network that provides optimized, interpolatable decorrelated jet tagging across a continuous range of hypothetical resonance masses, after training on discrete choices of the signal mass.

A review of sources of systematic errors and uncertainties in observations and simulations at 183 GHz

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brogniez, Helene; English, Stephen; Mahfouf, Jean-Francois; Behrendt, Andreas; Berg, Wesley; Boukabara, Sid; Buehler, Stefan Alexander; Chambon, Philippe; Gambacorta, Antonia; Geer, Alan; Ingram, William; Kursinski, E. Robert; Matricardi, Marco; Odintsova, Tatyana A.; Payne, Vivienne H.; Thorne, Peter W.; Tretyakov, Mikhail Yu.; Wang, Junhong

2016-05-01

Several recent studies have observed systematic differences between measurements in the 183.31 GHz water vapor line by space-borne sounders and calculations using radiative transfer models, with inputs from either radiosondes (radiosonde observations, RAOBs) or short-range forecasts by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. This paper discusses all the relevant categories of observation-based or model-based data, quantifies their uncertainties and separates biases that could be common to all causes from those attributable to a particular cause. Reference observations from radiosondes, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers, differential absorption lidar (DIAL) and Raman lidar are thus overviewed. Biases arising from their calibration procedures, NWP models and data assimilation, instrument biases and radiative transfer models (both the models themselves and the underlying spectroscopy) are presented and discussed. Although presently no single process in the comparisons seems capable of explaining the observed structure of bias, recommendations are made in order to better understand the causes.

Precision Compton polarimetry for the QWeak experiment at Jefferson Lab

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wouter Deconinck

2011-10-01

The Q Weak experiment, scheduled to run in 2010-2012 in Hall C at Jefferson Lab, will measure the parity-violating asymmetry in elastic electron-proton scattering at 1.1 GeV to determine the weak charge of the proton, Q{sub Weak}{sup p} = 1 - 4 sin{sup 2} {theta}{sub W}. The dominant experimental systematic uncertainty will be the knowledge of the electron beam polarization. With a new Compton polarimeter we aim to measure the beam polarization with a statistical precision of 1% in one hour and a systematic uncertainty of 1%. A low-gain Fabry-Perot cavity laser system provides the circularly polarized photons. The scatteredmore » electrons are detected in radiation-hard diamond strip detectors, and form the basis for a coincidence trigger using distributed logic boards. The photon detector uses a fast, undoped CsI crystal with simultaneous sampling and integrating read-out. Coincident events are used to cross-calibrate the photon and electron detectors.« less

An update on the analysis of the Princeton 19Ne beta asymmetry measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Combs, Dustin; Calaprice, Frank; Jones, Gordon; Pattie, Robert; Young, Albert

2013-10-01

We report on the progress of a new analysis of the 1994 19Ne beta asymmetry measurement conducted at Princeton University. In this experiment, a beam of 19Ne atoms were polarized with a Stern-Gerlach magnet and then entered a thin-walled mylar cell through a slit fabricated from a piece of micro channel plate. A pair of Si(Li) detectors at either end of the apparatus were aligned with the direction of spin polarization (one parallel and one anti-parallel to the spin of the 19Ne) and detected positrons from the decays. The difference in the rate in the two detectors was used to calculate the asymmetry. A new analysis procedure has been undertaken using the Monte Carlo package PENELOPE with the goal of determining the systematic uncertainty due to positrons scattering from the face of the detectors causing the incorrect reconstruction of the initial direction of the positron momentum. This was a leading cause of systematic uncertainty in the experiment in 1994.

Cosmology with EMSS Clusters of Galaxies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Donahue, Megan; Voit, G. Mark

1999-01-01

We use ASCA observations of the Extended Medium Sensitivity Survey sample of clusters of galaxies to construct the first z = 0.5 - 0.8 cluster temperature function. This distant cluster temperature function, when compared to local z approximately 0 and to a similar moderate redshift (z = 0.3 - 0.4) temperature function strongly constrains the matter density of the universe. Best fits to the distributions of temperatures and redshifts of these cluster samples results in Omega(sub M) = 0.45 +/- 0.1 if Lambda = 0 and Omega = 0.27 +/- 0.1 if Lambda + Omega(sub M) = 1. The uncertainties are 1sigma statistical. We examine the systematics of our approach and find that systematics, stemming mainly from model assumptions and not measurement errors, are about the same size as the statistical uncertainty +/- 0.1. In this poster proceedings, we clarify the issue of a8 as reported in our paper Donahue & Voit (1999), since this was a matter of discussion at the meeting.

Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty: An Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-02-01

In addition , the parser updates some parameters based on uncertainties. For example, Analytica was very slow to update Pk values based on...moderate range. The additional security environments helped to fill gaps in lower severity. Weapons Effectiveness Pk values were modified to account for two...project is to help improve the value and character of defense resource planning in an era of growing uncertainty and complex strategic challenges

The importance of policy in emissions inventory accuracy--a lesson from British Columbia, Canada.

PubMed

Krzyzanowski, Judi

2009-04-01

Actual atmospheric emissions in northeast British Columbia, Canada, are much higher than reported emissions. The addition of upstream oil and gas sector sources not included in the year-2000 emissions inventory of Criteria Air Contaminants (CACs) increases annual totals of nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, and volatile organic compound emissions by 115.1, 89.9, and 109.5%, respectively. These emissions arise from numerous small and unregulated point sources (N = 10,129). CAC summaries are given by source type and source sector. An analysis of uncertainty and reporting policy suggests that inventory omissions are not limited to the study area and that Canadian pollutant emissions are systematically underestimated. The omissions suggest that major changes in reporting procedures are needed in Canada if true estimates of annual pollutant emissions are to be documented.

Higher-Order Corrections to Timelike Jets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Giele, W.T.; /Fermilab; Kosower, D.A.

2011-02-01

We present a simple formalism for the evolution of timelike jets in which tree-level matrix element corrections can be systematically incorporated, up to arbitrary parton multiplicities and over all of phase space, in a way that exponentiates the matching corrections. The scheme is cast as a shower Markov chain which generates one single unweighted event sample, that can be passed to standard hadronization models. Remaining perturbative uncertainties are estimated by providing several alternative weight sets for the same events, at a relatively modest additional overhead. As an explicit example, we consider Z {yields} q{bar q} evolution with unpolarized, massless quarksmore » and include several formally subleading improvements as well as matching to tree-level matrix elements through {alpha}{sub s}{sup 4}. The resulting algorithm is implemented in the publicly available VINCIA plugin to the PYTHIA8 event generator.« less

Study of the decays D + → η ( ' ) e + ν e

DOE PAGES

Ablikim, M.; Achasov, M. N.; Ahmed, S.; ...

2018-05-31

The charm semileptonic decays D + → ηe +v e and D + → η'e+v e are studied with a sample of e +e - collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.93 fb -1 collected atmore » $$ \\sqrt{s}=3.773 $$ GeV with the BESIII detector. We measure the branching fractions for D+ → ηe+v e to be (10.74 ± 0.81 ± 0.51) x 10 -4, and for D+ → → η'e+v e to be (1.91 ± 0.51 ± 0.13) x 10 -4, where the uncertainties are statistical and systematic, respectively. In addition, we perform a measurement of the form factor in the decay D+ → ηe+v e. All the results are consistent with those obtained by the CLEO-c experiment.« less

Study of the decays D + → η ( ' ) e + ν e

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ablikim, M.; Achasov, M. N.; Ahmed, S.

The charm semileptonic decays D + → ηe +v e and D + → η'e+v e are studied with a sample of e +e - collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.93 fb -1 collected atmore » $$ \\sqrt{s}=3.773 $$ GeV with the BESIII detector. We measure the branching fractions for D+ → ηe+v e to be (10.74 ± 0.81 ± 0.51) x 10 -4, and for D+ → → η'e+v e to be (1.91 ± 0.51 ± 0.13) x 10 -4, where the uncertainties are statistical and systematic, respectively. In addition, we perform a measurement of the form factor in the decay D+ → ηe+v e. All the results are consistent with those obtained by the CLEO-c experiment.« less

Tranexamic acid in epistaxis: a systematic review.

PubMed

Kamhieh, Y; Fox, H

2016-12-01

The role of tranexamic acid in the management of epistaxis remains unclear. There is uncertainty about its safety and about the contraindications for its use. We performed a systematic review of the use of systemic and topical tranexamic acid in epistaxis and a comparative review of its use in other specialties. This review assesses and summarises the existing evidence for the efficacy and safety of tranexamic acid in the management of epistaxis. Systematic review. MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for 'epistaxis' and equivalent MESH terms, combined with the Boolean operator 'OR' and 'tranexamic acid'. The Cochrane library and society guidelines were reviewed for evidence regarding the use of tranexamic acid in other specialties. All five relevant RCTs were included in the review and were evaluated according to the recommendations of the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews. Three RCTS pertained to spontaneous epistaxis; of these, one trial found no benefit of oral tranexamic acid in acute epistaxis, one trial found no significant benefit of topical tranexamic acid, but the largest of the trials showed significant benefit of topical tranexamic acid in acute epistaxis management. Two RCTs examined oral tranexamic acid for prophylaxis of recurrent epistaxes in patients with hereditary haemorrhagic telangiectasia; both showed significant reduction in severity and frequency. Tranexamic acid, as a WHO 'essential medicine', is a powerful, readily available tool, the use of which in epistaxis has been limited by uncertainty over its efficacy and its safety profile. This systematic review summarises the existing evidence and extrapolates from the wealth of data for other specialties to address the clinical question - does TXA have a role in epistaxis management? © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Quantifying model uncertainty in seasonal Arctic sea-ice forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward; Barthélemy, Antoine; Chevallier, Matthieu; Cullather, Richard; Fučkar, Neven; Massonnet, François; Posey, Pamela; Wang, Wanqiu; Zhang, Jinlun; Ardilouze, Constantin; Bitz, Cecilia; Vernieres, Guillaume; Wallcraft, Alan; Wang, Muyin

2017-04-01

Dynamical model forecasts in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) of September Arctic sea-ice extent over the last decade have shown lower skill than that found in both idealized model experiments and hindcasts of previous decades. Additionally, it is unclear how different model physics, initial conditions or post-processing techniques contribute to SIO forecast uncertainty. In this work, we have produced a seasonal forecast of 2015 Arctic summer sea ice using SIO dynamical models initialized with identical sea-ice thickness in the central Arctic. Our goals are to calculate the relative contribution of model uncertainty and irreducible error growth to forecast uncertainty and assess the importance of post-processing, and to contrast pan-Arctic forecast uncertainty with regional forecast uncertainty. We find that prior to forecast post-processing, model uncertainty is the main contributor to forecast uncertainty, whereas after forecast post-processing forecast uncertainty is reduced overall, model uncertainty is reduced by an order of magnitude, and irreducible error growth becomes the main contributor to forecast uncertainty. While all models generally agree in their post-processed forecasts of September sea-ice volume and extent, this is not the case for sea-ice concentration. Additionally, forecast uncertainty of sea-ice thickness grows at a much higher rate along Arctic coastlines relative to the central Arctic ocean. Potential ways of offering spatial forecast information based on the timescale over which the forecast signal beats the noise are also explored.

Mapping extragalactic dark matter annihilation with galaxy surveys: A systematic study of stacked group searches

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lisanti, Mariangela; Mishra-Sharma, Siddharth; Rodd, Nicholas L.

Dark matter in the halos surrounding galaxy groups and clusters can annihilate to high-energy photons. Recent advancements in the construction of galaxy group catalogs provide many thousands of potential extragalactic targets for dark matter. In this paper, we outline a procedure to infer the dark matter signal associated with a given galaxy group. Applying this procedure to a catalog of sources, one can create a full-sky map of the brightest extragalactic dark matter targets in the nearby Universe (z≲0.03), supplementing sources of dark matter annihilation from within the local group. As with searches for dark matter in dwarf galaxies, thesemore » extragalactic targets can be stacked together to enhance the signals associated with dark matter. We validate this procedure on mock Fermi gamma-ray data sets using a galaxy catalog constructed from the DarkSky N-body cosmological simulation and demonstrate that the limits are robust, at O(1) levels, to systematic uncertainties on halo mass and concentration. We also quantify other sources of systematic uncertainty arising from the analysis and modeling assumptions. Lastly, our results suggest that a stacking analysis using galaxy group catalogs provides a powerful opportunity to discover extragalactic dark matter and complements existing studies of Milky Way dwarf galaxies.« less

Mapping extragalactic dark matter annihilation with galaxy surveys: A systematic study of stacked group searches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lisanti, Mariangela; Mishra-Sharma, Siddharth; Rodd, Nicholas L.; Safdi, Benjamin R.; Wechsler, Risa H.

2018-03-01

Dark matter in the halos surrounding galaxy groups and clusters can annihilate to high-energy photons. Recent advancements in the construction of galaxy group catalogs provide many thousands of potential extragalactic targets for dark matter. In this paper, we outline a procedure to infer the dark matter signal associated with a given galaxy group. Applying this procedure to a catalog of sources, one can create a full-sky map of the brightest extragalactic dark matter targets in the nearby Universe (z ≲0.03 ), supplementing sources of dark matter annihilation from within the local group. As with searches for dark matter in dwarf galaxies, these extragalactic targets can be stacked together to enhance the signals associated with dark matter. We validate this procedure on mock Fermi gamma-ray data sets using a galaxy catalog constructed from the DarkSky N -body cosmological simulation and demonstrate that the limits are robust, at O (1 ) levels, to systematic uncertainties on halo mass and concentration. We also quantify other sources of systematic uncertainty arising from the analysis and modeling assumptions. Our results suggest that a stacking analysis using galaxy group catalogs provides a powerful opportunity to discover extragalactic dark matter and complements existing studies of Milky Way dwarf galaxies.

Photoneutron cross sections for 59Co : Systematic uncertainties of data from various experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varlamov, V. V.; Davydov, A. I.; Ishkhanov, B. S.

2017-09-01

Data on partial photoneutron reaction cross sections (γ ,1n), (γ ,2n), and (γ ,3n) for 59Co obtained in two experiments carried out at Livermore (USA) were analyzed. The sources of radiation in both experiments were the monoenergetic photon beams from the annihilation in flight of relativistic positrons. The total yield was sorted by the neutron multiplicity, taking into account the difference in the neutron energy spectra for different multiplicity. The two quoted studies differ in the method of determining the neutron. Significant systematic disagreements between the results of the two experiments exist. They are considered to be caused by large systematic uncertainties in partial cross sections, since they do not satisfy physical criteria for reliability of the data. To obtain reliable cross sections of partial and total photoneutron reactions a new method combining experimental data and theoretical evaluation was used. It is based on the experimental neutron yield cross section which is rather independent of neutron multiplicity and the transitional neutron multiplicity functions of the combined photonucleon reaction model (CPNRM). The model transitional multiplicity functions were used for the decomposition of the neutron yield cross section into the contributions of partial reactions. The results of the new evaluation noticeably differ from the partial cross sections obtained in the two experimental studies are under discussion.

The impact of the orbital decay of the LAGEOS satellites on the frame-dragging tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iorio, Lorenzo

2016-01-01

The laser-tracked geodetic satellites LAGEOS, LAGEOS II and LARES are currently employed, among other things, to measure the general relativistic Lense-Thirring effect in the gravitomagnetic field of the spinning Earth with the hope of providing a more accurate test of such a prediction of the Einstein's theory of gravitation than the existing ones. The secular decay a ˙ of the semimajor axes a of such spacecrafts, recently measured in an independent way to a σȧ ≈ 0.1-0.01 m yr-1 accuracy level, may indirectly impact the proposed relativistic experiment through its connection with the classical orbital precessions induced by the Earth's oblateness J2 . Indeed, the systematic bias due to the current measurement errors σȧ is of the same order of magnitude of, or even larger than, the expected relativistic signal itself; moreover, it grows linearly with the time span T of the analysis. Therefore, the parameter-fitting algorithms must be properly updated in order to suitably cope with such a new source of systematic uncertainty. Otherwise, an improvement of one-two orders of magnitude in measuring the orbital decay of the satellites of the LAGEOS family would be required to reduce this source of systematic uncertainty to a percent fraction of the Lense-Thirring signature.

The effect of rainfall measurement uncertainties on rainfall-runoff processes modelling.

PubMed

Stransky, D; Bares, V; Fatka, P

2007-01-01

Rainfall data are a crucial input for various tasks concerning the wet weather period. Nevertheless, their measurement is affected by random and systematic errors that cause an underestimation of the rainfall volume. Therefore, the general objective of the presented work was to assess the credibility of measured rainfall data and to evaluate the effect of measurement errors on urban drainage modelling tasks. Within the project, the methodology of the tipping bucket rain gauge (TBR) was defined and assessed in terms of uncertainty analysis. A set of 18 TBRs was calibrated and the results were compared to the previous calibration. This enables us to evaluate the ageing of TBRs. A propagation of calibration and other systematic errors through the rainfall-runoff model was performed on experimental catchment. It was found that the TBR calibration is important mainly for tasks connected with the assessment of peak values and high flow durations. The omission of calibration leads to up to 30% underestimation and the effect of other systematic errors can add a further 15%. The TBR calibration should be done every two years in order to catch up the ageing of TBR mechanics. Further, the authors recommend to adjust the dynamic test duration proportionally to generated rainfall intensity.

Comparison of two stochastic techniques for reliable urban runoff prediction by modeling systematic errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Giudice, Dario; Löwe, Roland; Madsen, Henrik; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Rieckermann, Jörg

2015-07-01

In urban rainfall-runoff, commonly applied statistical techniques for uncertainty quantification mostly ignore systematic output errors originating from simplified models and erroneous inputs. Consequently, the resulting predictive uncertainty is often unreliable. Our objective is to present two approaches which use stochastic processes to describe systematic deviations and to discuss their advantages and drawbacks for urban drainage modeling. The two methodologies are an external bias description (EBD) and an internal noise description (IND, also known as stochastic gray-box modeling). They emerge from different fields and have not yet been compared in environmental modeling. To compare the two approaches, we develop a unifying terminology, evaluate them theoretically, and apply them to conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling in the same drainage system. Our results show that both approaches can provide probabilistic predictions of wastewater discharge in a similarly reliable way, both for periods ranging from a few hours up to more than 1 week ahead of time. The EBD produces more accurate predictions on long horizons but relies on computationally heavy MCMC routines for parameter inferences. These properties make it more suitable for off-line applications. The IND can help in diagnosing the causes of output errors and is computationally inexpensive. It produces best results on short forecast horizons that are typical for online applications.

Mapping extragalactic dark matter annihilation with galaxy surveys: A systematic study of stacked group searches

DOE PAGES

Lisanti, Mariangela; Mishra-Sharma, Siddharth; Rodd, Nicholas L.; ...

2018-03-09

Dark matter in the halos surrounding galaxy groups and clusters can annihilate to high-energy photons. Recent advancements in the construction of galaxy group catalogs provide many thousands of potential extragalactic targets for dark matter. In this paper, we outline a procedure to infer the dark matter signal associated with a given galaxy group. Applying this procedure to a catalog of sources, one can create a full-sky map of the brightest extragalactic dark matter targets in the nearby Universe (z≲0.03), supplementing sources of dark matter annihilation from within the local group. As with searches for dark matter in dwarf galaxies, thesemore » extragalactic targets can be stacked together to enhance the signals associated with dark matter. We validate this procedure on mock Fermi gamma-ray data sets using a galaxy catalog constructed from the DarkSky N-body cosmological simulation and demonstrate that the limits are robust, at O(1) levels, to systematic uncertainties on halo mass and concentration. We also quantify other sources of systematic uncertainty arising from the analysis and modeling assumptions. Lastly, our results suggest that a stacking analysis using galaxy group catalogs provides a powerful opportunity to discover extragalactic dark matter and complements existing studies of Milky Way dwarf galaxies.« less

A unified approach for squeal instability analysis of disc brakes with two types of random-fuzzy uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lü, Hui; Shangguan, Wen-Bin; Yu, Dejie

2017-09-01

Automotive brake systems are always subjected to various types of uncertainties and two types of random-fuzzy uncertainties may exist in the brakes. In this paper, a unified approach is proposed for squeal instability analysis of disc brakes with two types of random-fuzzy uncertainties. In the proposed approach, two uncertainty analysis models with mixed variables are introduced to model the random-fuzzy uncertainties. The first one is the random and fuzzy model, in which random variables and fuzzy variables exist simultaneously and independently. The second one is the fuzzy random model, in which uncertain parameters are all treated as random variables while their distribution parameters are expressed as fuzzy numbers. Firstly, the fuzziness is discretized by using α-cut technique and the two uncertainty analysis models are simplified into random-interval models. Afterwards, by temporarily neglecting interval uncertainties, the random-interval models are degraded into random models, in which the expectations, variances, reliability indexes and reliability probabilities of system stability functions are calculated. And then, by reconsidering the interval uncertainties, the bounds of the expectations, variances, reliability indexes and reliability probabilities are computed based on Taylor series expansion. Finally, by recomposing the analysis results at each α-cut level, the fuzzy reliability indexes and probabilities can be obtained, by which the brake squeal instability can be evaluated. The proposed approach gives a general framework to deal with both types of random-fuzzy uncertainties that may exist in the brakes and its effectiveness is demonstrated by numerical examples. It will be a valuable supplement to the systematic study of brake squeal considering uncertainty.

Relative Gains, Losses, and Reference Points in Probabilistic Choice in Rats

PubMed Central

Marshall, Andrew T.; Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

2015-01-01

Theoretical reference points have been proposed to differentiate probabilistic gains from probabilistic losses in humans, but such a phenomenon in non-human animals has yet to be thoroughly elucidated. Three experiments evaluated the effect of reward magnitude on probabilistic choice in rats, seeking to determine reference point use by examining the effect of previous outcome magnitude(s) on subsequent choice behavior. Rats were trained to choose between an outcome that always delivered reward (low-uncertainty choice) and one that probabilistically delivered reward (high-uncertainty). The probability of high-uncertainty outcome receipt and the magnitudes of low-uncertainty and high-uncertainty outcomes were manipulated within and between experiments. Both the low- and high-uncertainty outcomes involved variable reward magnitudes, so that either a smaller or larger magnitude was probabilistically delivered, as well as reward omission following high-uncertainty choices. In Experiments 1 and 2, the between groups factor was the magnitude of the high-uncertainty-smaller (H-S) and high-uncertainty-larger (H-L) outcome, respectively. The H-S magnitude manipulation differentiated the groups, while the H-L magnitude manipulation did not. Experiment 3 showed that manipulating the probability of differential losses as well as the expected value of the low-uncertainty choice produced systematic effects on choice behavior. The results suggest that the reference point for probabilistic gains and losses was the expected value of the low-uncertainty choice. Current theories of probabilistic choice behavior have difficulty accounting for the present results, so an integrated theoretical framework is proposed. Overall, the present results have implications for understanding individual differences and corresponding underlying mechanisms of probabilistic choice behavior. PMID:25658448

Uncertainty Representation in Visualizations of Learning Analytics for Learners: Current Approaches and Opportunities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Demmans Epp, Carrie; Bull, Susan

2015-01-01

Adding uncertainty information to visualizations is becoming increasingly common across domains since its addition helps ensure that informed decisions are made. This work has shown the difficulty that is inherent to representing uncertainty. Moreover, the representation of uncertainty has yet to be thoroughly explored in educational domains even…

Impacts of uncertainties in weather and streamflow observations in calibration and evaluation of an elevation distributed HBV-model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engeland, K.; Steinsland, I.; Petersen-Øverleir, A.; Johansen, S.

2012-04-01

The aim of this study is to assess the uncertainties in streamflow simulations when uncertainties in both observed inputs (precipitation and temperature) and streamflow observations used in the calibration of the hydrological model are explicitly accounted for. To achieve this goal we applied the elevation distributed HBV model operating on daily time steps to a small catchment in high elevation in Southern Norway where the seasonal snow cover is important. The uncertainties in precipitation inputs were quantified using conditional simulation. This procedure accounts for the uncertainty related to the density of the precipitation network, but neglects uncertainties related to measurement bias/errors and eventual elevation gradients in precipitation. The uncertainties in temperature inputs were quantified using a Bayesian temperature interpolation procedure where the temperature lapse rate is re-estimated every day. The uncertainty in the lapse rate was accounted for whereas the sampling uncertainty related to network density was neglected. For every day a random sample of precipitation and temperature inputs were drawn to be applied as inputs to the hydrologic model. The uncertainties in observed streamflow were assessed based on the uncertainties in the rating curve model. A Bayesian procedure was applied to estimate the probability for rating curve models with 1 to 3 segments and the uncertainties in their parameters. This method neglects uncertainties related to errors in observed water levels. Note that one rating curve was drawn to make one realisation of a whole time series of streamflow, thus the rating curve errors lead to a systematic bias in the streamflow observations. All these uncertainty sources were linked together in both calibration and evaluation of the hydrologic model using a DREAM based MCMC routine. Effects of having less information (e.g. missing one streamflow measurement for defining the rating curve or missing one precipitation station) was also investigated.

Simultaneous Force Regression and Movement Classification of Fingers via Surface EMG within a Unified Bayesian Framework.

PubMed

Baldacchino, Tara; Jacobs, William R; Anderson, Sean R; Worden, Keith; Rowson, Jennifer

2018-01-01

This contribution presents a novel methodology for myolectric-based control using surface electromyographic (sEMG) signals recorded during finger movements. A multivariate Bayesian mixture of experts (MoE) model is introduced which provides a powerful method for modeling force regression at the fingertips, while also performing finger movement classification as a by-product of the modeling algorithm. Bayesian inference of the model allows uncertainties to be naturally incorporated into the model structure. This method is tested using data from the publicly released NinaPro database which consists of sEMG recordings for 6 degree-of-freedom force activations for 40 intact subjects. The results demonstrate that the MoE model achieves similar performance compared to the benchmark set by the authors of NinaPro for finger force regression. Additionally, inherent to the Bayesian framework is the inclusion of uncertainty in the model parameters, naturally providing confidence bounds on the force regression predictions. Furthermore, the integrated clustering step allows a detailed investigation into classification of the finger movements, without incurring any extra computational effort. Subsequently, a systematic approach to assessing the importance of the number of electrodes needed for accurate control is performed via sensitivity analysis techniques. A slight degradation in regression performance is observed for a reduced number of electrodes, while classification performance is unaffected.

Measurement of the total cross section from elastic scattering in pp collisions at s = 8   TeV with the ATLAS detector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aaboud, M.; Aad, G.; Abbott, B.

A measurement of the total ppcross section at the LHC at √s=8TeV is presented. An integrated luminosity of 500 μb-1 was accumulated in a special run with high-β beam optics to measure the differential elastic cross section as a function of the Mandelstam momentum transfer variable t. The measurement is performed with the ALFA sub-detector of ATLAS. Using a fit to the differential elastic cross section in the -t range from 0.014GeV2 to 0.1GeV2 to extrapolate t→0, the total cross section, σtot(pp →X), is measured via the optical theorem to be σtot(pp→ X) = 96.07±0.18 (stat.)±0.85 (exp.)± 0.31 (extr.) mb,more » where the first error is statistical, the second accounts for all experimental systematic uncertainties and the last is related to uncertainties in the extrapolation t→0. In addition, the slope of the exponential function describing the elastic cross section at small t is determined to be B =19.74 ±0.05 (stat.) ±0.23 (syst.) GeV-2.« less

Geostatistical approach for assessing soil volumes requiring remediation: validation using lead-polluted soils underlying a former smelting works.

PubMed

Demougeot-Renard, Helene; De Fouquet, Chantal

2004-10-01

Assessing the volume of soil requiring remediation and the accuracy of this assessment constitutes an essential step in polluted site management. If this remediation volume is not properly assessed, misclassification may lead both to environmental risks (polluted soils may not be remediated) and financial risks (unexpected discovery of polluted soils may generate additional remediation costs). To minimize such risks, this paper proposes a geostatistical methodology based on stochastic simulations that allows the remediation volume and the uncertainty to be assessed using investigation data. The methodology thoroughly reproduces the conditions in which the soils are classified and extracted at the remediation stage. The validity of the approach is tested by applying it on the data collected during the investigation phase of a former lead smelting works and by comparing the results with the volume that has actually been remediated. This real remediated volume was composed of all the remediation units that were classified as polluted after systematic sampling and analysis during clean-up stage. The volume estimated from the 75 samples collected during site investigation slightly overestimates (5.3% relative error) the remediated volume deduced from 212 remediation units. Furthermore, the real volume falls within the range of uncertainty predicted using the proposed methodology.

Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy

PubMed Central

Morgan, M. Granger

2014-01-01

The elicitation of scientific and technical judgments from experts, in the form of subjective probability distributions, can be a valuable addition to other forms of evidence in support of public policy decision making. This paper explores when it is sensible to perform such elicitation and how that can best be done. A number of key issues are discussed, including topics on which there are, and are not, experts who have knowledge that provides a basis for making informed predictive judgments; the inadequacy of only using qualitative uncertainty language; the role of cognitive heuristics and of overconfidence; the choice of experts; the development, refinement, and iterative testing of elicitation protocols that are designed to help experts to consider systematically all relevant knowledge when they make their judgments; the treatment of uncertainty about model functional form; diversity of expert opinion; and when it does or does not make sense to combine judgments from different experts. Although it may be tempting to view expert elicitation as a low-cost, low-effort alternative to conducting serious research and analysis, it is neither. Rather, expert elicitation should build on and use the best available research and analysis and be undertaken only when, given those, the state of knowledge will remain insufficient to support timely informed assessment and decision making. PMID:24821779

Measurement of the total cross section from elastic scattering in pp collisions at √s=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

DOE PAGES

Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; Abdallah, J.; ...

2014-10-28

In this study, a measurement of the totalmore » $pp$ cross section at the LHC at $$\\sqrt{s}=7$$ TeV is presented. In a special run with high-$$\\beta^{\\star}$$ beam optics, an integrated luminosity of 80 µb -1 was accumulated in order to measure the differential elastic cross section as a function of the Mandelstam momentum transfer variable $t$. The measurement is performed with the ALFA sub-detector of ATLAS. Using a fit to the differential elastic cross section in the |t| range from 0.01 GeV 2 to 0.1 GeV 2 to extrapolate to |t| → 0, the total cross section, σ tot($pp$ → X), is measured via the optical theorem to be: σ tot($pp$ → X) = 95.35 ± 0.38 (stat.) ± 1.25 (exp.) ± 0.37 (extr.) mb, where the first error is statistical, the second accounts for all experimental systematic uncertainties and the last is related to uncertainties in the extrapolation to |t| → 0. In addition, the slope of the elastic cross section at small |t| is determined to be B = 19.73 ± 0.14 (stat.) ± 0.26 (syst.) GeV -2.« less

Measurement of the total cross section from elastic scattering in pp collisions at √s=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; Abdallah, J.

In this study, a measurement of the totalmore » $pp$ cross section at the LHC at $$\\sqrt{s}=7$$ TeV is presented. In a special run with high-$$\\beta^{\\star}$$ beam optics, an integrated luminosity of 80 µb -1 was accumulated in order to measure the differential elastic cross section as a function of the Mandelstam momentum transfer variable $t$. The measurement is performed with the ALFA sub-detector of ATLAS. Using a fit to the differential elastic cross section in the |t| range from 0.01 GeV 2 to 0.1 GeV 2 to extrapolate to |t| → 0, the total cross section, σ tot($pp$ → X), is measured via the optical theorem to be: σ tot($pp$ → X) = 95.35 ± 0.38 (stat.) ± 1.25 (exp.) ± 0.37 (extr.) mb, where the first error is statistical, the second accounts for all experimental systematic uncertainties and the last is related to uncertainties in the extrapolation to |t| → 0. In addition, the slope of the elastic cross section at small |t| is determined to be B = 19.73 ± 0.14 (stat.) ± 0.26 (syst.) GeV -2.« less

How measurement science can improve confidence in research results.

PubMed

Plant, Anne L; Becker, Chandler A; Hanisch, Robert J; Boisvert, Ronald F; Possolo, Antonio M; Elliott, John T

2018-04-01

The current push for rigor and reproducibility is driven by a desire for confidence in research results. Here, we suggest a framework for a systematic process, based on consensus principles of measurement science, to guide researchers and reviewers in assessing, documenting, and mitigating the sources of uncertainty in a study. All study results have associated ambiguities that are not always clarified by simply establishing reproducibility. By explicitly considering sources of uncertainty, noting aspects of the experimental system that are difficult to characterize quantitatively, and proposing alternative interpretations, the researcher provides information that enhances comparability and reproducibility.

Signal recognition efficiencies of artificial neural-network pulse-shape discrimination in HPGe -decay searches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, A.; Cossavella, F.; Majorovits, B.; Palioselitis, D.; Volynets, O.

2015-07-01

A pulse-shape discrimination method based on artificial neural networks was applied to pulses simulated for different background, signal and signal-like interactions inside a germanium detector. The simulated pulses were used to investigate variations of efficiencies as a function of used training set. It is verified that neural networks are well-suited to identify background pulses in true-coaxial high-purity germanium detectors. The systematic uncertainty on the signal recognition efficiency derived using signal-like evaluation samples from calibration measurements is estimated to be 5 %. This uncertainty is due to differences between signal and calibration samples.

Do (un)certainty appraisal tendencies reverse the influence of emotions on risk taking in sequential tasks?

PubMed

Bagneux, Virginie; Bollon, Thierry; Dantzer, Cécile

2012-01-01

According to the Appraisal-Tendency Framework (Han, Lerner, & Keltner, 2007), certainty-associated emotions increase risk taking compared with uncertainty-associated emotions. To date, this general effect has only been shown in static judgement and decision-making paradigms; therefore, the present study tested the effect of certainty on risk taking in a sequential decision-making task. We hypothesised that the effect would be reversed due to the kind of processing involved, as certainty is considered to encourage heuristic processing that takes into account the emotional cues arising from previous decisions, whereas uncertainty leads to more systematic processing. One hundred and one female participants were induced to feel one of three emotions (film clips) before performing a decision-making task involving risk (Game of Dice Task; Brand et al., 2005). As expected, the angry and happy participants (certainty-associated emotions) were more likely than the fearful participants (uncertainty-associated emotion) to make safe decisions (vs. risky decisions).

Role of turbulence fluctuations on uncertainties of acoutic Doppler current profiler discharge measurements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tarrab, Leticia; Garcia, Carlos M.; Cantero, Mariano I.; Oberg, Kevin

2012-01-01

This work presents a systematic analysis quantifying the role of the presence of turbulence fluctuations on uncertainties (random errors) of acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) discharge measurements from moving platforms. Data sets of three-dimensional flow velocities with high temporal and spatial resolution were generated from direct numerical simulation (DNS) of turbulent open channel flow. Dimensionless functions relating parameters quantifying the uncertainty in discharge measurements due to flow turbulence (relative variance and relative maximum random error) to sampling configuration were developed from the DNS simulations and then validated with field-scale discharge measurements. The validated functions were used to evaluate the role of the presence of flow turbulence fluctuations on uncertainties in ADCP discharge measurements. The results of this work indicate that random errors due to the flow turbulence are significant when: (a) a low number of transects is used for a discharge measurement, and (b) measurements are made in shallow rivers using high boat velocity (short time for the boat to cross a flow turbulence structure).

First Observation of a Baryonic B_{s}^{0} Decay.

PubMed

Aaij, R; Adeva, B; Adinolfi, M; Ajaltouni, Z; Akar, S; Albrecht, J; Alessio, F; Alexander, M; Ali, S; Alkhazov, G; Alvarez Cartelle, P; Alves, A A; Amato, S; Amerio, S; Amhis, Y; An, L; Anderlini, L; Andreassi, G; Andreotti, M; Andrews, J E; Appleby, R B; Archilli, F; d'Argent, P; Arnau Romeu, J; Artamonov, A; Artuso, M; Aslanides, E; Auriemma, G; Baalouch, M; Babuschkin, I; Bachmann, S; Back, J J; Badalov, A; Baesso, C; Baker, S; Balagura, V; Baldini, W; Baranov, A; Barlow, R J; Barschel, C; Barsuk, S; Barter, W; Baryshnikov, F; Baszczyk, M; Batozskaya, V; Battista, V; Bay, A; Beaucourt, L; Beddow, J; Bedeschi, F; Bediaga, I; Beiter, A; Bel, L J; Bellee, V; Belloli, N; Belous, K; Belyaev, I; Ben-Haim, E; Bencivenni, G; Benson, S; Beranek, S; Berezhnoy, A; Bernet, R; Bertolin, A; Betancourt, C; Betti, F; Bettler, M-O; van Beuzekom, M; Bezshyiko, Ia; Bifani, S; Billoir, P; Birnkraut, A; Bitadze, A; Bizzeti, A; Blake, T; Blanc, F; Blouw, J; Blusk, S; Bocci, V; Boettcher, T; Bondar, A; Bondar, N; Bonivento, W; Bordyuzhin, I; Borgheresi, A; Borghi, S; Borisyak, M; Borsato, M; Bossu, F; Boubdir, M; Bowcock, T J V; Bowen, E; Bozzi, C; Braun, S; Britton, T; Brodzicka, J; Buchanan, E; Burr, C; Bursche, A; Buytaert, J; Cadeddu, S; Calabrese, R; Calvi, M; Calvo Gomez, M; Camboni, A; Campana, P; Campora Perez, D H; Capriotti, L; Carbone, A; Carboni, G; Cardinale, R; Cardini, A; Carniti, P; Carson, L; Carvalho Akiba, K; Casse, G; Cassina, L; Castillo Garcia, L; Cattaneo, M; Cavallero, G; Cenci, R; Chamont, D; Charles, M; Charpentier, Ph; Chatzikonstantinidis, G; Chefdeville, M; Chen, S; Cheung, S F; Chobanova, V; Chrzaszcz, M; Chubykin, A; Cid Vidal, X; Ciezarek, G; Clarke, P E L; Clemencic, M; Cliff, H V; Closier, J; Coco, V; Cogan, J; Cogneras, E; Cogoni, V; Cojocariu, L; Collins, P; Comerma-Montells, A; Contu, A; Cook, A; Coombs, G; Coquereau, S; Corti, G; Corvo, M; Costa Sobral, C M; Couturier, B; Cowan, G A; Craik, D C; Crocombe, A; Cruz Torres, M; Cunliffe, S; Currie, R; D'Ambrosio, C; Da Cunha Marinho, F; Dall'Occo, E; Dalseno, J; Davis, A; De Aguiar Francisco, O; De Bruyn, K; De Capua, S; De Cian, M; De Miranda, J M; De Paula, L; De Serio, M; De Simone, P; Dean, C T; Decamp, D; Deckenhoff, M; Del Buono, L; Dembinski, H-P; Demmer, M; Dendek, A; Derkach, D; Deschamps, O; Dettori, F; Dey, B; Di Canto, A; Di Nezza, P; Dijkstra, H; Dordei, F; Dorigo, M; Dosil Suárez, A; Dovbnya, A; Dreimanis, K; Dufour, L; Dujany, G; Dungs, K; Durante, P; Dzhelyadin, R; Dziewiecki, M; Dziurda, A; Dzyuba, A; Déléage, N; Easo, S; Ebert, M; Egede, U; Egorychev, V; Eidelman, S; Eisenhardt, S; Eitschberger, U; Ekelhof, R; Eklund, L; Ely, S; Esen, S; Evans, H M; Evans, T; Falabella, A; Farley, N; Farry, S; Fay, R; Fazzini, D; Ferguson, D; Fernandez, G; Fernandez Prieto, A; Ferrari, F; Ferreira Rodrigues, F; Ferro-Luzzi, M; Filippov, S; Fini, R A; Fiore, M; Fiorini, M; Firlej, M; Fitzpatrick, C; Fiutowski, T; Fleuret, F; Fohl, K; Fontana, M; Fontanelli, F; Forshaw, D C; Forty, R; Franco Lima, V; Frank, M; Frei, C; Fu, J; Funk, W; Furfaro, E; Färber, C; Gabriel, E; Gallas Torreira, A; Galli, D; Gallorini, S; Gambetta, S; Gandelman, M; Gandini, P; Gao, Y; Garcia Martin, L M; García Pardiñas, J; Garra Tico, J; Garrido, L; Garsed, P J; Gascon, D; Gaspar, C; Gavardi, L; Gazzoni, G; Gerick, D; Gersabeck, E; Gersabeck, M; Gershon, T; Ghez, Ph; Gianì, S; Gibson, V; Girard, O G; Giubega, L; Gizdov, K; Gligorov, V V; Golubkov, D; Golutvin, A; Gomes, A; Gorelov, I V; Gotti, C; Govorkova, E; Graciani Diaz, R; Granado Cardoso, L A; Graugés, E; Graverini, E; Graziani, G; Grecu, A; Greim, R; Griffith, P; Grillo, L; Gruber, L; Gruberg Cazon, B R; Grünberg, O; Gushchin, E; Guz, Yu; Gys, T; Göbel, C; Hadavizadeh, T; Hadjivasiliou, C; Haefeli, G; Haen, C; Haines, S C; Hamilton, B; Han, X; Hansmann-Menzemer, S; Harnew, N; Harnew, S T; Harrison, J; Hatch, M; He, J; Head, T; Heister, A; Hennessy, K; Henrard, P; Henry, L; van Herwijnen, E; Heß, M; Hicheur, A; Hill, D; Hombach, C; Hopchev, P H; Huard, Z-C; Hulsbergen, W; Humair, T; Hushchyn, M; Hutchcroft, D; Idzik, M; Ilten, P; Jacobsson, R; Jalocha, J; Jans, E; Jawahery, A; Jiang, F; John, M; Johnson, D; Jones, C R; Joram, C; Jost, B; Jurik, N; Kandybei, S; Karacson, M; Kariuki, J M; Karodia, S; Kecke, M; Kelsey, M; Kenzie, M; Ketel, T; Khairullin, E; Khanji, B; Khurewathanakul, C; Kirn, T; Klaver, S; Klimaszewski, K; Klimkovich, T; Koliiev, S; Kolpin, M; Komarov, I; Kopecna, R; Koppenburg, P; Kosmyntseva, A; Kotriakhova, S; Kozeiha, M; Kravchuk, L; Kreps, M; Krokovny, P; Kruse, F; Krzemien, W; Kucewicz, W; Kucharczyk, M; Kudryavtsev, V; Kuonen, A K; Kurek, K; Kvaratskheliya, T; Lacarrere, D; Lafferty, G; Lai, A; Lanfranchi, G; Langenbruch, C; Latham, T; Lazzeroni, C; Le Gac, R; van Leerdam, J; Leflat, A; Lefrançois, J; Lefèvre, R; Lemaitre, F; Lemos Cid, E; Leroy, O; Lesiak, T; Leverington, B; Li, T; Li, Y; Li, Z; Likhomanenko, T; Lindner, R; Lionetto, F; Liu, X; Loh, D; Longstaff, I; Lopes, J H; Lucchesi, D; Lucio Martinez, M; Luo, H; Lupato, A; Luppi, E; Lupton, O; Lusiani, A; Lyu, X; Machefert, F; Maciuc, F; Maddock, B; Maev, O; Maguire, K; Malde, S; Malinin, A; Maltsev, T; Manca, G; Mancinelli, G; Manning, P; Maratas, J; Marchand, J F; Marconi, U; Marin Benito, C; Marinangeli, M; Marino, P; Marks, J; Martellotti, G; Martin, M; Martinelli, M; Martinez Santos, D; Martinez Vidal, F; Martins Tostes, D; Massacrier, L M; Massafferri, A; Matev, R; Mathad, A; Mathe, Z; Matteuzzi, C; Mauri, A; Maurice, E; Maurin, B; Mazurov, A; McCann, M; McNab, A; McNulty, R; Meadows, B; Meier, F; Melnychuk, D; Merk, M; Merli, A; Michielin, E; Milanes, D A; Minard, M-N; Mitzel, D S; Mogini, A; Molina Rodriguez, J; Monroy, I A; Monteil, S; Morandin, M; Morello, M J; Morgunova, O; Moron, J; Morris, A B; Mountain, R; Muheim, F; Mulder, M; Mussini, M; Müller, D; Müller, J; Müller, K; Müller, V; Naik, P; Nakada, T; Nandakumar, R; Nandi, A; Nasteva, I; Needham, M; Neri, N; Neubert, S; Neufeld, N; Neuner, M; Nguyen, T D; Nguyen-Mau, C; Nieswand, S; Niet, R; Nikitin, N; Nikodem, T; Nogay, A; O'Hanlon, D P; Oblakowska-Mucha, A; Obraztsov, V; Ogilvy, S; Oldeman, R; Onderwater, C J G; Ossowska, A; Otalora Goicochea, J M; Owen, P; Oyanguren, A; Pais, P R; Palano, A; Palutan, M; Papanestis, A; Pappagallo, M; Pappalardo, L L; Pappenheimer, C; Parker, W; Parkes, C; Passaleva, G; Pastore, A; Patel, M; Patrignani, C; Pearce, A; Pellegrino, A; Penso, G; Pepe Altarelli, M; Perazzini, S; Perret, P; Pescatore, L; Petridis, K; Petrolini, A; Petrov, A; Petruzzo, M; Picatoste Olloqui, E; Pietrzyk, B; Pikies, M; Pinci, D; Pistone, A; Piucci, A; Placinta, V; Playfer, S; Plo Casasus, M; Poikela, T; Polci, F; Poli Lener, M; Poluektov, A; Polyakov, I; Polycarpo, E; Pomery, G J; Ponce, S; Popov, A; Popov, D; Popovici, B; Poslavskii, S; Potterat, C; Price, E; Prisciandaro, J; Prouve, C; Pugatch, V; Puig Navarro, A; Punzi, G; Qian, C; Qian, W; Quagliani, R; Rachwal, B; Rademacker, J H; Rama, M; Ramos Pernas, M; Rangel, M S; Raniuk, I; Ratnikov, F; Raven, G; Ravonel Salzgeber, M; Reboud, M; Redi, F; Reichert, S; Dos Reis, A C; Remon Alepuz, C; Renaudin, V; Ricciardi, S; Richards, S; Rihl, M; Rinnert, K; Rives Molina, V; Robbe, P; Rodrigues, A B; Rodrigues, E; Rodriguez Lopez, J A; Rodriguez Perez, P; Rogozhnikov, A; Roiser, S; Rollings, A; Romanovskiy, V; Romero Vidal, A; Ronayne, J W; Rotondo, M; Rudolph, M S; Ruf, T; Ruiz Valls, P; Saborido Silva, J J; Sadykhov, E; Sagidova, N; Saitta, B; Salustino Guimaraes, V; Sanchez Gonzalo, D; Sanchez Mayordomo, C; Sanmartin Sedes, B; Santacesaria, R; Santamarina Rios, C; Santimaria, M; Santovetti, E; Sarti, A; Satriano, C; Satta, A; Saunders, D M; Savrina, D; Schael, S; Schellenberg, M; Schiller, M; Schindler, H; Schlupp, M; Schmelling, M; Schmelzer, T; Schmidt, B; Schneider, O; Schopper, A; Schreiner, H F; Schubert, K; Schubiger, M; Schune, M-H; Schwemmer, R; Sciascia, B; Sciubba, A; Semennikov, A; Sergi, A; Serra, N; Serrano, J; Sestini, L; Seyfert, P; Shapkin, M; Shapoval, I; Shcheglov, Y; Shears, T; Shekhtman, L; Shevchenko, V; Siddi, B G; Silva Coutinho, R; Silva de Oliveira, L; Simi, G; Simone, S; Sirendi, M; Skidmore, N; Skwarnicki, T; Smith, E; Smith, I T; Smith, J; Smith, M; Soares Lavra, L; Sokoloff, M D; Soler, F J P; Souza De Paula, B; Spaan, B; Spradlin, P; Sridharan, S; Stagni, F; Stahl, M; Stahl, S; Stefko, P; Stefkova, S; Steinkamp, O; Stemmle, S; Stenyakin, O; Stevens, H; Stoica, S; Stone, S; Storaci, B; Stracka, S; Stramaglia, M E; Straticiuc, M; Straumann, U; Sun, L; Sutcliffe, W; Swientek, K; Syropoulos, V; Szczekowski, M; Szumlak, T; T'Jampens, S; Tayduganov, A; Tekampe, T; Tellarini, G; Teubert, F; Thomas, E; van Tilburg, J; Tilley, M J; Tisserand, V; Tobin, M; Tolk, S; Tomassetti, L; Tonelli, D; Topp-Joergensen, S; Toriello, F; Tourinho Jadallah Aoude, R; Tournefier, E; Tourneur, S; Trabelsi, K; Traill, M; Tran, M T; Tresch, M; Trisovic, A; Tsaregorodtsev, A; Tsopelas, P; Tully, A; Tuning, N; Ukleja, A; Ustyuzhanin, A; Uwer, U; Vacca, C; Vagner, A; Vagnoni, V; Valassi, A; Valat, S; Valenti, G; Vazquez Gomez, R; Vazquez Regueiro, P; Vecchi, S; van Veghel, M; Velthuis, J J; Veltri, M; Veneziano, G; Venkateswaran, A; Verlage, T A; Vernet, M; Vesterinen, M; Viana Barbosa, J V; Viaud, B; Vieira, D; Vieites Diaz, M; Viemann, H; Vilasis-Cardona, X; Vitti, M; Volkov, V; Vollhardt, A; Voneki, B; Vorobyev, A; Vorobyev, V; Voß, C; de Vries, J A; Vázquez Sierra, C; Waldi, R; Wallace, C; Wallace, R; Walsh, J; Wang, J; Ward, D R; Wark, H M; Watson, N K; Websdale, D; Weiden, A; Whitehead, M; Wicht, J; Wilkinson, G; Wilkinson, M; Williams, M; Williams, M P; Williams, M; Williams, T; Wilson, F F; Wimberley, J; Winn, M A; Wishahi, J; Wislicki, W; Witek, M; Wormser, G; Wotton, S A; Wraight, K; Wyllie, K; Xie, Y; Xu, Z; Yang, Z; Yang, Z; Yao, Y; Yin, H; Yu, J; Yuan, X; Yushchenko, O; Zarebski, K A; Zavertyaev, M; Zhang, L; Zhang, Y; Zhelezov, A; Zheng, Y; Zhu, X; Zhukov, V; Zonneveld, J B; Zucchelli, S

2017-07-28

We report the first observation of a baryonic B_{s}^{0} decay, B_{s}^{0}→pΛ[over ¯]K^{-}, using proton-proton collision data recorded by the LHCb experiment at center-of-mass energies of 7 and 8 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.0  fb^{-1}. The branching fraction is measured to be B(B_{s}^{0}→pΛ[over ¯]K^{-})+B(B_{s}^{0}→p[over ¯]ΛK^{+})=[5.46±0.61±0.57±0.50(B)±0.32(f_{s}/f_{d})]×10^{-6}, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic, the third uncertainty accounts for the experimental uncertainty on the branching fraction of the B^{0}→pΛ[over ¯]π^{-} decay used for normalization, and the fourth uncertainty relates to the knowledge of the ratio of b-quark hadronization probabilities f_{s}/f_{d}.

High-voltage measurements on the 5 ppm relative uncertainty level with collinear laser spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krämer, J.; König, K.; Geppert, Ch; Imgram, P.; Maaß, B.; Meisner, J.; Otten, E. W.; Passon, S.; Ratajczyk, T.; Ullmann, J.; Nörtershäuser, W.

2018-04-01

We present the results of high-voltage collinear laser spectroscopy measurements on the 5 ppm relative uncertainty level using a pump and probe scheme at the 4s ^2S1/2 → 4p ^2P3/2 transition of {\\hspace{0pt}}40Ca+ involving the 3d ^2D5/2 metastable state. With two-stage laser interaction and a reference measurement we can eliminate systematic effects such as differences in the contact potentials due to different electrode materials and thermoelectric voltages, and the unknown starting potential of the ions in the ion source. Voltage measurements were performed between  -5 kV and  -19 kV and parallel measurements with stable high-voltage dividers calibrated to 5 ppm relative uncertainty were used as a reference. Our measurements are compatible with the uncertainty limits of the high-voltage dividers and demonstrate an unprecedented (factor of 20) increase in the precision of direct laser-based high-voltage measurements.

TU-EF-304-03: 4D Monte Carlo Robustness Test for Proton Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Souris, K; Sterpin, E; Lee, J

Purpose: Breathing motion and approximate dose calculation engines may increase proton range uncertainties. We address these two issues using a comprehensive 4D robustness evaluation tool based on an efficient Monte Carlo (MC) engine, which can simulate breathing with no significant increase in computation time. Methods: To assess the robustness of the treatment plan, multiple scenarios of uncertainties are simulated, taking into account the systematic and random setup errors, range uncertainties, and organ motion. Our fast MC dose engine, called MCsquare, implements optimized models on a massively-parallel computation architecture and allows us to accurately simulate a scenario in less than onemore » minute. The deviations of the uncertainty scenarios are then reported on a DVH-band and compared to the nominal plan.The robustness evaluation tool is illustrated in a lung case by comparing three 60Gy treatment plans. First, a plan is optimized on a PTV obtained by extending the CTV with an 8mm margin, in order to take into account systematic geometrical uncertainties, like in our current practice in radiotherapy. No specific strategy is employed to correct for tumor and organ motions. The second plan involves a PTV generated from the ITV, which encompasses the tumor volume in all breathing phases. The last plan results from robust optimization performed on the ITV, with robustness parameters of 3% for tissue density and 8 mm for positioning errors. Results: The robustness test revealed that the first two plans could not properly cover the target in the presence of uncertainties. CTV-coverage (D95) in the three plans ranged respectively between 39.4–55.5Gy, 50.2–57.5Gy, and 55.1–58.6Gy. Conclusion: A realistic robustness verification tool based on a fast MC dose engine has been developed. This test is essential to assess the quality of proton therapy plan and very useful to study various planning strategies for mobile tumors. This work is partly funded by IBA (Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium)« less

Quantifying confidence in density functional theory predictions of magnetic ground states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houchins, Gregory; Viswanathan, Venkatasubramanian

2017-10-01

Density functional theory (DFT) simulations, at the generalized gradient approximation (GGA) level, are being routinely used for material discovery based on high-throughput descriptor-based searches. The success of descriptor-based material design relies on eliminating bad candidates and keeping good candidates for further investigation. While DFT has been widely successfully for the former, oftentimes good candidates are lost due to the uncertainty associated with the DFT-predicted material properties. Uncertainty associated with DFT predictions has gained prominence and has led to the development of exchange correlation functionals that have built-in error estimation capability. In this work, we demonstrate the use of built-in error estimation capabilities within the BEEF-vdW exchange correlation functional for quantifying the uncertainty associated with the magnetic ground state of solids. We demonstrate this approach by calculating the uncertainty estimate for the energy difference between the different magnetic states of solids and compare them against a range of GGA exchange correlation functionals as is done in many first-principles calculations of materials. We show that this estimate reasonably bounds the range of values obtained with the different GGA functionals. The estimate is determined as a postprocessing step and thus provides a computationally robust and systematic approach to estimating uncertainty associated with predictions of magnetic ground states. We define a confidence value (c-value) that incorporates all calculated magnetic states in order to quantify the concurrence of the prediction at the GGA level and argue that predictions of magnetic ground states from GGA level DFT is incomplete without an accompanying c-value. We demonstrate the utility of this method using a case study of Li-ion and Na-ion cathode materials and the c-value metric correctly identifies that GGA-level DFT will have low predictability for NaFePO4F . Further, there needs to be a systematic test of a collection of plausible magnetic states, especially in identifying antiferromagnetic (AFM) ground states. We believe that our approach of estimating uncertainty can be readily incorporated into all high-throughput computational material discovery efforts and this will lead to a dramatic increase in the likelihood of finding good candidate materials.

An Assessment of the Systematic Uncertainty in Present and Future Tests of the Lense-Thirring Effect with Satellite Laser Ranging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iorio, Lorenzo

2009-12-01

We deal with the attempts to measure the Lense-Thirring effect with the Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) technique applied to the existing LAGEOS and LAGEOS II terrestrial satellites and to the recently approved LARES spacecraft. According to general relativity, a central spinning body of mass M and angular momentum S like the Earth generates a gravitomagnetic field which induces small secular precessions of the orbit of a test particle geodesically moving around it. Extracting this signature from the data is a demanding task because of many classical orbital perturbations having the same pattern as the gravitomagnetic one, like those due to the centrifugal oblateness of the Earth which represents a major source of systematic bias. The first issue addressed here is: are the so far published evaluations of the systematic uncertainty induced by the bad knowledge of the even zonal harmonic coefficients J ℓ of the multipolar expansion of the Earth’s geopotential reliable and realistic? Our answer is negative. Indeed, if the differences Δ J ℓ among the even zonals estimated in different Earth’s gravity field global solutions from the dedicated GRACE mission are assumed for the uncertainties δ J ℓ instead of using their covariance sigmas σ_{J_{ell}} , it turns out that the systematic uncertainty δ μ in the Lense-Thirring test with the nodes Ω of LAGEOS and LAGEOS II may be up to 3 to 4 times larger than in the evaluations so far published (5-10%) based on the use of the sigmas of one model at a time separately. The second issue consists of the possibility of using a different approach in extracting the relativistic signature of interest from the LAGEOS-type data. The third issue is the possibility of reaching a realistic total accuracy of 1% with LAGEOS, LAGEOS II and LARES, which should be launched in November 2009 with a VEGA rocket. While LAGEOS and LAGEOS II fly at altitudes of about 6000 km, LARES will be likely placed at an altitude of 1450 km. Thus, it will be sensitive to much more even zonals than LAGEOS and LAGEOS II. Their corrupting impact has been evaluated with the standard Kaula’s approach up to degree ℓ=60 by using Δ J ℓ and σ_{J_{ell }} ; it turns out that it may be as large as some tens percent. The different orbit of LARES may also have some consequences on the non-gravitational orbital perturbations affecting it which might further degrade the obtainable accuracy in the Lense-Thirring test.

Use of historical information in extreme storm surges frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamdi, Yasser; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Deville, Yves; Bardet, Lise; Rebour, Vincent

2013-04-01

The prevention of storm surge flood risks is critical for protection and design of coastal facilities to very low probabilities of failure. The effective protection requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a solid theoretical motivation. Relating extreme storm surges to their frequency of occurrence using probability distributions has been a common issue since 1950s. The engineer needs to determine the storm surge of a given return period, i.e., the storm surge quantile or design storm surge. Traditional methods for determining such a quantile have been generally based on data from the systematic record alone. However, the statistical extrapolation, to estimate storm surges corresponding to high return periods, is seriously contaminated by sampling and model uncertainty if data are available for a relatively limited period. This has motivated the development of approaches to enlarge the sample extreme values beyond the systematic period. The nonsystematic data occurred before the systematic period is called historical information. During the last three decades, the value of using historical information as a nonsystematic data in frequency analysis has been recognized by several authors. The basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of historical information is that a perception threshold exists and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, all exceedances of this threshold have been recorded. Historical information prior to the systematic records may arise from high-sea water marks left by extreme surges on the coastal areas. It can also be retrieved from archives, old books, earliest newspapers, damage reports, unpublished written records and interviews with local residents. A plotting position formula, to compute empirical probabilities based on systematic and historical data, is used in this communication paper. The objective of the present work is to examine the potential gain in estimation accuracy with the use of historical information (to the Brest tide gauge located in the French Atlantic coast). In addition, the present work contributes to addressing the problem of the presence of outliers in data sets. Historical data are generally imprecise, and their inaccuracy should be properly accounted for in the analysis. However, as several authors believe, even with substantial uncertainty in the data, the use of historical information is a viable mean to improve estimates of rare events related to extreme environmental conditions. The preliminary results of this study suggest that the use of historical information increases the representativity of an outlier in the systematic data. It is also shown that the use of historical information, specifically the perception sea water level, can be considered as a reliable solution for the optimal planning and design of facilities to withstand extreme environmental conditions, which will occur during its lifetime, with an appropriate optimum of risk level. Findings are of practical relevance for applications in storm surge risk analysis and flood management.

Uncertainty in assessing value of oncology treatments.

PubMed

Mullins, C Daniel; Montgomery, Russ; Tunis, Sean

2010-01-01

Patients, clinicians, payers, and policymakers face an environment of significant evidentiary uncertainty as they attempt to achieve maximum value, or the greatest level of benefit possible at a given level of cost in their respective health care decisions. This is particularly true in the area of oncology, for which published evidence from clinical trials is often incongruent with real-world patient care, and a substantial portion of clinical use is for off-label indications that have not been systematically evaluated. It is this uncertainty in the knowledge of the clinical harms and benefits associated with oncology treatments that prevents postregulatory decision makers from making accurate assessments of the value of these treatments. Because of the incentives inherent in the clinical research enterprise, randomized control trials (RCTs) are designed for the specific purpose of regulatory approval and maximizing market penetration. The pursuit of these goals results in RCT study designs that achieve maximal internal validity at the expense of generalizability to diverse real-world patient populations that may have significant comorbidities and other clinically mitigating factors. As such, systematic reviews for the purposes of coverage and treatment decisions often find relevant and high-quality evidence to be limited or nonexistent. For a number of reasons, including frequent off-label use of medications and the expedited approval process for cancer drugs by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, this situation is exacerbated in the area of oncology. This paper investigates the convergence of incentives and circumstances that lead to widespread uncertainty in oncology and proposes new paradigms for clinical research, including pragmatic clinical trials, methodological guidance, and coverage with evidence development. Each of these initiatives would support the design of clinical research that is more informative for postregulatory decision makers, and would therefore reduce uncertainty and provide greater confidence in conclusions about the value of these treatments.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saur, Sigrun; Frengen, Jomar; Department of Oncology and Radiotherapy, St. Olavs University Hospital, N-7006 Trondheim

Film dosimetry using radiochromic EBT film in combination with a flatbed charge coupled device scanner is a useful method both for two-dimensional verification of intensity-modulated radiation treatment plans and for general quality assurance of treatment planning systems and linear accelerators. Unfortunately, the response over the scanner area is nonuniform, and when not corrected for, this results in a systematic error in the measured dose which is both dose and position dependent. In this study a novel method for background correction is presented. The method is based on the subtraction of a correction matrix, a matrix that is based on scansmore » of films that are irradiated to nine dose levels in the range 0.08-2.93 Gy. Because the response of the film is dependent on the film's orientation with respect to the scanner, correction matrices for both landscape oriented and portrait oriented scans were made. In addition to the background correction method, a full dose uncertainty analysis of the film dosimetry procedure was performed. This analysis takes into account the fit uncertainty of the calibration curve, the variation in response for different film sheets, the nonuniformity after background correction, and the noise in the scanned films. The film analysis was performed for film pieces of size 16x16 cm, all with the same lot number, and all irradiations were done perpendicular onto the films. The results show that the 2-sigma dose uncertainty at 2 Gy is about 5% and 3.5% for landscape and portrait scans, respectively. The uncertainty gradually increases as the dose decreases, but at 1 Gy the 2-sigma dose uncertainty is still as good as 6% and 4% for landscape and portrait scans, respectively. The study shows that film dosimetry using GafChromic EBT film, an Epson Expression 1680 Professional scanner and a dedicated background correction technique gives precise and accurate results. For the purpose of dosimetric verification, the calculated dose distribution can be compared with the film-measured dose distribution using a dose constraint of 4% (relative to the measured dose) for doses between 1 and 3 Gy. At lower doses, the dose constraint must be relaxed.« less

ISA implementation and uncertainty: a literature review and expert elicitation study.

PubMed

van der Pas, J W G M; Marchau, V A W J; Walker, W E; van Wee, G P; Vlassenroot, S H

2012-09-01

Each day, an average of over 116 people die from traffic accidents in the European Union. One out of three fatalities is estimated to be the result of speeding. The current state of technology makes it possible to make speeding more difficult, or even impossible, by placing intelligent speed limiters (so called ISA devices) in vehicles. Although the ISA technology has been available for some years now, and reducing the number of road traffic fatalities and injuries has been high on the European political agenda, implementation still seems to be far away. Experts indicate that there are still too many uncertainties surrounding ISA implementation, and dealing with these uncertainties is essential for implementing ISA. In this paper, a systematic and representative inventory of the uncertainties is made based upon the literature. Furthermore, experts in the field of ISA were surveyed and asked which uncertainties are barriers for ISA implementation, and how uncertain these uncertainties are. We found that the long-term effects and the effects of large-scale implementation of ISA are still uncertain and are the most important barriers for the implementation of the most effective types of ISA. One way to deal with these uncertainties would be to start implementation on a small scale and gradually expand the penetration, in order to learn how ISA influences the transport system over time. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A systematic uncertainty analysis of an evaluative fate and exposure model.

PubMed

Hertwich, E G; McKone, T E; Pease, W S

2000-08-01

Multimedia fate and exposure models are widely used to regulate the release of toxic chemicals, to set cleanup standards for contaminated sites, and to evaluate emissions in life-cycle assessment. CalTOX, one of these models, is used to calculate the potential dose, an outcome that is combined with the toxicity of the chemical to determine the Human Toxicity Potential (HTP), used to aggregate and compare emissions. The comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty in the potential dose calculation in this article serves to provide the information necessary to evaluate the reliability of decisions based on the HTP A framework for uncertainty analysis in multimedia risk assessment is proposed and evaluated with four types of uncertainty. Parameter uncertainty is assessed through Monte Carlo analysis. The variability in landscape parameters is assessed through a comparison of potential dose calculations for different regions in the United States. Decision rule uncertainty is explored through a comparison of the HTP values under open and closed system boundaries. Model uncertainty is evaluated through two case studies, one using alternative formulations for calculating the plant concentration and the other testing the steady state assumption for wet deposition. This investigation shows that steady state conditions for the removal of chemicals from the atmosphere are not appropriate and result in an underestimate of the potential dose for 25% of the 336 chemicals evaluated.

Approach to determine measurement uncertainty in complex nanosystems with multiparametric dependencies and multivariate output quantities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hampel, B.; Liu, B.; Nording, F.; Ostermann, J.; Struszewski, P.; Langfahl-Klabes, J.; Bieler, M.; Bosse, H.; Güttler, B.; Lemmens, P.; Schilling, M.; Tutsch, R.

2018-03-01

In many cases, the determination of the measurement uncertainty of complex nanosystems provides unexpected challenges. This is in particular true for complex systems with many degrees of freedom, i.e. nanosystems with multiparametric dependencies and multivariate output quantities. The aim of this paper is to address specific questions arising during the uncertainty calculation of such systems. This includes the division of the measurement system into subsystems and the distinction between systematic and statistical influences. We demonstrate that, even if the physical systems under investigation are very different, the corresponding uncertainty calculation can always be realized in a similar manner. This is exemplarily shown in detail for two experiments, namely magnetic nanosensors and ultrafast electro-optical sampling of complex time-domain signals. For these examples the approach for uncertainty calculation following the guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement (GUM) is explained, in which correlations between multivariate output quantities are captured. To illustate the versatility of the proposed approach, its application to other experiments, namely nanometrological instruments for terahertz microscopy, dimensional scanning probe microscopy, and measurement of concentration of molecules using surface enhanced Raman scattering, is shortly discussed in the appendix. We believe that the proposed approach provides a simple but comprehensive orientation for uncertainty calculation in the discussed measurement scenarios and can also be applied to similar or related situations.

Asteroid approach covariance analysis for the Clementine mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ionasescu, Rodica; Sonnabend, David

1993-01-01

The Clementine mission is designed to test Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) technology, the Brilliant Pebbles and Brilliant Eyes sensors, by mapping the moon surface and flying by the asteroid Geographos. The capability of two of the instruments available on board the spacecraft, the lidar (laser radar) and the UV/Visible camera is used in the covariance analysis to obtain the spacecraft delivery uncertainties at the asteroid. These uncertainties are due primarily to asteroid ephemeris uncertainties. On board optical navigation reduces the uncertainty in the knowledge of the spacecraft position in the direction perpendicular to the incoming asymptote to a one-sigma value of under 1 km, at the closest approach distance of 100 km. The uncertainty in the knowledge of the encounter time is about 0.1 seconds for a flyby velocity of 10.85 km/s. The magnitude of these uncertainties is due largely to Center Finding Errors (CFE). These systematic errors represent the accuracy expected in locating the center of the asteroid in the optical navigation images, in the absence of a topographic model for the asteroid. The direction of the incoming asymptote cannot be estimated accurately until minutes before the asteroid flyby, and correcting for it would require autonomous navigation. Orbit determination errors dominate over maneuver execution errors, and the final delivery accuracy attained is basically the orbit determination uncertainty before the final maneuver.

Sources of Uncertainty in Predicting Land Surface Fluxes Using Diverse Data and Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dungan, Jennifer L.; Wang, Weile; Michaelis, Andrew; Votava, Petr; Nemani, Ramakrishma

2010-01-01

In the domain of predicting land surface fluxes, models are used to bring data from large observation networks and satellite remote sensing together to make predictions about present and future states of the Earth. Characterizing the uncertainty about such predictions is a complex process and one that is not yet fully understood. Uncertainty exists about initialization, measurement and interpolation of input variables; model parameters; model structure; and mixed spatial and temporal supports. Multiple models or structures often exist to describe the same processes. Uncertainty about structure is currently addressed by running an ensemble of different models and examining the distribution of model outputs. To illustrate structural uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble experiment we have been conducting using the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) will be discussed. TOPS uses public versions of process-based ecosystem models that use satellite-derived inputs along with surface climate data and land surface characterization to produce predictions of ecosystem fluxes including gross and net primary production and net ecosystem exchange. Using the TOPS framework, we have explored the uncertainty arising from the application of models with different assumptions, structures, parameters, and variable definitions. With a small number of models, this only begins to capture the range of possible spatial fields of ecosystem fluxes. Few attempts have been made to systematically address the components of uncertainty in such a framework. We discuss the characterization of uncertainty for this approach including both quantifiable and poorly known aspects.

Introducing uncertainty analysis of nucleation and crystal growth models in Process Analytical Technology (PAT) system design of crystallization processes.

PubMed

Samad, Noor Asma Fazli Abdul; Sin, Gürkan; Gernaey, Krist V; Gani, Rafiqul

2013-11-01

This paper presents the application of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis as part of a systematic model-based process monitoring and control (PAT) system design framework for crystallization processes. For the uncertainty analysis, the Monte Carlo procedure is used to propagate input uncertainty, while for sensitivity analysis, global methods including the standardized regression coefficients (SRC) and Morris screening are used to identify the most significant parameters. The potassium dihydrogen phosphate (KDP) crystallization process is used as a case study, both in open-loop and closed-loop operation. In the uncertainty analysis, the impact on the predicted output of uncertain parameters related to the nucleation and the crystal growth model has been investigated for both a one- and two-dimensional crystal size distribution (CSD). The open-loop results show that the input uncertainties lead to significant uncertainties on the CSD, with appearance of a secondary peak due to secondary nucleation for both cases. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the most important parameters affecting the CSDs are nucleation order and growth order constants. In the proposed PAT system design (closed-loop), the target CSD variability was successfully reduced compared to the open-loop case, also when considering uncertainty in nucleation and crystal growth model parameters. The latter forms a strong indication of the robustness of the proposed PAT system design in achieving the target CSD and encourages its transfer to full-scale implementation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prioritizing Chemicals and Data Requirements for Screening-Level Exposure and Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Brown, Trevor N.; Wania, Frank; Breivik, Knut; McLachlan, Michael S.

2012-01-01

Background: Scientists and regulatory agencies strive to identify chemicals that may cause harmful effects to humans and the environment; however, prioritization is challenging because of the large number of chemicals requiring evaluation and limited data and resources. Objectives: We aimed to prioritize chemicals for exposure and exposure potential and obtain a quantitative perspective on research needs to better address uncertainty in screening assessments. Methods: We used a multimedia mass balance model to prioritize > 12,000 organic chemicals using four far-field human exposure metrics. The propagation of variance (uncertainty) in key chemical information used as model input for calculating exposure metrics was quantified. Results: Modeled human concentrations and intake rates span approximately 17 and 15 orders of magnitude, respectively. Estimates of exposure potential using human concentrations and a unit emission rate span approximately 13 orders of magnitude, and intake fractions span 7 orders of magnitude. The actual chemical emission rate contributes the greatest variance (uncertainty) in exposure estimates. The human biotransformation half-life is the second greatest source of uncertainty in estimated concentrations. In general, biotransformation and biodegradation half-lives are greater sources of uncertainty in modeled exposure and exposure potential than chemical partition coefficients. Conclusions: Mechanistic exposure modeling is suitable for screening and prioritizing large numbers of chemicals. By including uncertainty analysis and uncertainty in chemical information in the exposure estimates, these methods can help identify and address the important sources of uncertainty in human exposure and risk assessment in a systematic manner. PMID:23008278

Constraining the mass–richness relationship of redMaPPer clusters with angular clustering

DOE PAGES

Baxter, Eric J.; Rozo, Eduardo; Jain, Bhuvnesh; ...

2016-08-04

The potential of using cluster clustering for calibrating the mass–richness relation of galaxy clusters has been recognized theoretically for over a decade. In this paper, we demonstrate the feasibility of this technique to achieve high-precision mass calibration using redMaPPer clusters in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey North Galactic Cap. By including cross-correlations between several richness bins in our analysis, we significantly improve the statistical precision of our mass constraints. The amplitude of the mass–richness relation is constrained to 7 per cent statistical precision by our analysis. However, the error budget is systematics dominated, reaching a 19 per cent total errormore » that is dominated by theoretical uncertainty in the bias–mass relation for dark matter haloes. We confirm the result from Miyatake et al. that the clustering amplitude of redMaPPer clusters depends on galaxy concentration as defined therein, and we provide additional evidence that this dependence cannot be sourced by mass dependences: some other effect must account for the observed variation in clustering amplitude with galaxy concentration. Assuming that the observed dependence of redMaPPer clustering on galaxy concentration is a form of assembly bias, we find that such effects introduce a systematic error on the amplitude of the mass–richness relation that is comparable to the error bar from statistical noise. Finally, the results presented here demonstrate the power of cluster clustering for mass calibration and cosmology provided the current theoretical systematics can be ameliorated.« less

GafChromic EBT film dosimetry with flatbed CCD scanner: a novel background correction method and full dose uncertainty analysis.

PubMed

Saur, Sigrun; Frengen, Jomar

2008-07-01

Film dosimetry using radiochromic EBT film in combination with a flatbed charge coupled device scanner is a useful method both for two-dimensional verification of intensity-modulated radiation treatment plans and for general quality assurance of treatment planning systems and linear accelerators. Unfortunately, the response over the scanner area is nonuniform, and when not corrected for, this results in a systematic error in the measured dose which is both dose and position dependent. In this study a novel method for background correction is presented. The method is based on the subtraction of a correction matrix, a matrix that is based on scans of films that are irradiated to nine dose levels in the range 0.08-2.93 Gy. Because the response of the film is dependent on the film's orientation with respect to the scanner, correction matrices for both landscape oriented and portrait oriented scans were made. In addition to the background correction method, a full dose uncertainty analysis of the film dosimetry procedure was performed. This analysis takes into account the fit uncertainty of the calibration curve, the variation in response for different film sheets, the nonuniformity after background correction, and the noise in the scanned films. The film analysis was performed for film pieces of size 16 x 16 cm, all with the same lot number, and all irradiations were done perpendicular onto the films. The results show that the 2-sigma dose uncertainty at 2 Gy is about 5% and 3.5% for landscape and portrait scans, respectively. The uncertainty gradually increases as the dose decreases, but at 1 Gy the 2-sigma dose uncertainty is still as good as 6% and 4% for landscape and portrait scans, respectively. The study shows that film dosimetry using GafChromic EBT film, an Epson Expression 1680 Professional scanner and a dedicated background correction technique gives precise and accurate results. For the purpose of dosimetric verification, the calculated dose distribution can be compared with the film-measured dose distribution using a dose constraint of 4% (relative to the measured dose) for doses between 1 and 3 Gy. At lower doses, the dose constraint must be relaxed.

Effectiveness of Manual Therapy and Therapeutic Exercise for Temporomandibular Disorders: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Pitance, Laurent; Singh, Vandana; Neto, Francisco; Thie, Norman; Michelotti, Ambra

2016-01-01

Background Manual therapy (MT) and exercise have been extensively used to treat people with musculoskeletal conditions such as temporomandibular disorders (TMD). The evidence regarding their effectiveness provided by early systematic reviews is outdated. Purpose The aim of this study was to summarize evidence from and evaluate the methodological quality of randomized controlled trials that examined the effectiveness of MT and therapeutic exercise interventions compared with other active interventions or standard care for treatment of TMD. Data Sources Electronic data searches of 6 databases were performed, in addition to a manual search. Study Selection Randomized controlled trials involving adults with TMD that compared any type of MT intervention (eg, mobilization, manipulation) or exercise therapy with a placebo intervention, controlled comparison intervention, or standard care were included. The main outcomes of this systematic review were pain, range of motion, and oral function. Forty-eight studies met the inclusion criteria and were analyzed. Data Extraction Data were extracted in duplicate on specific study characteristics. Data Synthesis The overall evidence for this systematic review was considered low. The trials included in this review had unclear or high risk of bias. Thus, the evidence was generally downgraded based on assessments of risk of bias. Most of the effect sizes were low to moderate, with no clear indication of superiority of exercises versus other conservative treatments for TMD. However, MT alone or in combination with exercises at the jaw or cervical level showed promising effects. Limitations Quality of the evidence and heterogeneity of the studies were limitations of the study. Conclusions No high-quality evidence was found, indicating that there is great uncertainty about the effectiveness of exercise and MT for treatment of TMD. PMID:26294683

Benchmarking hydrological model predictive capability for UK River flows and flood peaks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lane, Rosanna; Coxon, Gemma; Freer, Jim; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-04-01

Data and hydrological models are now available for national hydrological analyses. However, hydrological model performance varies between catchments, and lumped, conceptual models are not able to produce adequate simulations everywhere. This study aims to benchmark hydrological model performance for catchments across the United Kingdom within an uncertainty analysis framework. We have applied four hydrological models from the FUSE framework to 1128 catchments across the UK. These models are all lumped models and run at a daily timestep, but differ in the model structural architecture and process parameterisations, therefore producing different but equally plausible simulations. We apply FUSE over a 20 year period from 1988-2008, within a GLUE Monte Carlo uncertainty analyses framework. Model performance was evaluated for each catchment, model structure and parameter set using standard performance metrics. These were calculated both for the whole time series and to assess seasonal differences in model performance. The GLUE uncertainty analysis framework was then applied to produce simulated 5th and 95th percentile uncertainty bounds for the daily flow time-series and additionally the annual maximum prediction bounds for each catchment. The results show that the model performance varies significantly in space and time depending on catchment characteristics including climate, geology and human impact. We identify regions where models are systematically failing to produce good results, and present reasons why this could be the case. We also identify regions or catchment characteristics where one model performs better than others, and have explored what structural component or parameterisation enables certain models to produce better simulations in these catchments. Model predictive capability was assessed for each catchment, through looking at the ability of the models to produce discharge prediction bounds which successfully bound the observed discharge. These results improve our understanding of the predictive capability of simple conceptual hydrological models across the UK and help us to identify where further effort is needed to develop modelling approaches to better represent different catchment and climate typologies.

Estimating ecosystem carbon change in the Conterminous United States based on 40 years of land-use change and disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sleeter, B. M.; Rayfield, B.; Liu, J.; Sherba, J.; Daniel, C.; Frid, L.; Wilson, T. S.; Zhu, Z.

2016-12-01

Since 1970, the combined changes in land use, land management, climate, and natural disturbances have dramatically altered land cover in the United States, resulting in the potential for significant changes in terrestrial carbon storage and flux between ecosystems and the atmosphere. Processes including urbanization, agricultural expansion and contraction, and forest management have had impacts - both positive and negative - on the amount of natural vegetation, the age structure of forests, and the amount of impervious cover. Anthropogenic change coupled with climate-driven changes in natural disturbance regimes, particularly the frequency and severity of wildfire, together determine the spatio-temporal patterns of land change and contribute to changing ecosystem carbon dynamics. Quantifying this effect and its associated uncertainties is fundamental to developing a rigorous and transparent carbon monitoring and assessment programs. However, large-scale systematic inventories of historical land change and their associated uncertainties are sparse. To address this need, we present a newly developed modeling framework, the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS). The LUCAS model integrates readily available high quality, empirical land-change data into a stochastic space-time simulation model representing land change feedbacks on carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. We applied the LUCAS model to estimate regional scale changes in carbon storage, atmospheric flux, and net biome production in 84 ecological regions of the conterminous United States for the period 1970-2015. The model was parameterized using a newly available set of high resolution (30 m) land-change data, compiled from Landsat remote sensing imagery, including estimates of uncertainty. Carbon flux parameters for each ecological region were derived from the IBIS dynamic global vegetation model with full carbon cycle accounting. This paper presents our initial findings describing regional and temporal changes and variability in carbon storage and flux resulting from land use change and disturbance between 1973 and 2015. Additionally, based on stochastic simulations we quantify and present key sources of uncertainty in the estimation of terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics.

Opportunities of probabilistic flood loss models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Lüdtke, Stefan; Vogel, Kristin; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

Oftentimes, traditional uni-variate damage models as for instance depth-damage curves fail to reproduce the variability of observed flood damage. However, reliable flood damage models are a prerequisite for the practical usefulness of the model results. Innovative multi-variate probabilistic modelling approaches are promising to capture and quantify the uncertainty involved and thus to improve the basis for decision making. In this study we compare the predictive capability of two probabilistic modelling approaches, namely Bagging Decision Trees and Bayesian Networks and traditional stage damage functions. For model evaluation we use empirical damage data which are available from computer aided telephone interviews that were respectively compiled after the floods in 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2013 in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. We carry out a split sample test by sub-setting the damage records. One sub-set is used to derive the models and the remaining records are used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model. Further we stratify the sample according to catchments which allows studying model performance in a spatial transfer context. Flood damage estimation is carried out on the scale of the individual buildings in terms of relative damage. The predictive performance of the models is assessed in terms of systematic deviations (mean bias), precision (mean absolute error) as well as in terms of sharpness of the predictions the reliability which is represented by the proportion of the number of observations that fall within the 95-quantile and 5-quantile predictive interval. The comparison of the uni-variable Stage damage function and the multivariable model approach emphasises the importance to quantify predictive uncertainty. With each explanatory variable, the multi-variable model reveals an additional source of uncertainty. However, the predictive performance in terms of precision (mbe), accuracy (mae) and reliability (HR) is clearly improved in comparison to uni-variable Stage damage function. Overall, Probabilistic models provide quantitative information about prediction uncertainty which is crucial to assess the reliability of model predictions and improves the usefulness of model results.

Analyzing the uncertainty of suspended sediment load prediction using sequential data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leisenring, Marc; Moradkhani, Hamid

2012-10-01

SummaryA first step in understanding the impacts of sediment and controlling the sources of sediment is to quantify the mass loading. Since mass loading is the product of flow and concentration, the quantification of loads first requires the quantification of runoff volume. Using the National Weather Service's SNOW-17 and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) models, this study employed particle filter based Bayesian data assimilation methods to predict seasonal snow water equivalent (SWE) and runoff within a small watershed in the Lake Tahoe Basin located in California, USA. A procedure was developed to scale the variance multipliers (a.k.a hyperparameters) for model parameters and predictions based on the accuracy of the mean predictions relative to the ensemble spread. In addition, an online bias correction algorithm based on the lagged average bias was implemented to detect and correct for systematic bias in model forecasts prior to updating with the particle filter. Both of these methods significantly improved the performance of the particle filter without requiring excessively wide prediction bounds. The flow ensemble was linked to a non-linear regression model that was used to predict suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) based on runoff rate and time of year. Runoff volumes and SSC were then combined to produce an ensemble of suspended sediment load estimates. Annual suspended sediment loads for the 5 years of simulation were finally computed along with 95% prediction intervals that account for uncertainty in both the SSC regression model and flow rate estimates. Understanding the uncertainty associated with annual suspended sediment load predictions is critical for making sound watershed management decisions aimed at maintaining the exceptional clarity of Lake Tahoe. The computational methods developed and applied in this research could assist with similar studies where it is important to quantify the predictive uncertainty of pollutant load estimates.

Quantifying errors without random sampling.

PubMed

Phillips, Carl V; LaPole, Luwanna M

2003-06-12

All quantifications of mortality, morbidity, and other health measures involve numerous sources of error. The routine quantification of random sampling error makes it easy to forget that other sources of error can and should be quantified. When a quantification does not involve sampling, error is almost never quantified and results are often reported in ways that dramatically overstate their precision. We argue that the precision implicit in typical reporting is problematic and sketch methods for quantifying the various sources of error, building up from simple examples that can be solved analytically to more complex cases. There are straightforward ways to partially quantify the uncertainty surrounding a parameter that is not characterized by random sampling, such as limiting reported significant figures. We present simple methods for doing such quantifications, and for incorporating them into calculations. More complicated methods become necessary when multiple sources of uncertainty must be combined. We demonstrate that Monte Carlo simulation, using available software, can estimate the uncertainty resulting from complicated calculations with many sources of uncertainty. We apply the method to the current estimate of the annual incidence of foodborne illness in the United States. Quantifying uncertainty from systematic errors is practical. Reporting this uncertainty would more honestly represent study results, help show the probability that estimated values fall within some critical range, and facilitate better targeting of further research.

Instrument Drift Uncertainties and the Long-Term TOMS/SBUV Total Ozone Record

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Solarski, Richard S.; Frith, Stacey

2005-01-01

Long-term climate records from satellites are often constructed from the measurements of a sequence of instruments launched at different times. Each of these instruments is calibrated prior to launch. After launch they are subjected to potential offsets and slow drifts in calibration. We illustrate these issues in the construction of a merged total ozone record from two TOMS and three SBUV instruments. This record extends from late 1978 through the present. The question is "How good are these records?". We have examined the uncertainty in determining the relative calibration of two instruments during an overlap period in their measurements. When comparing a TOMS instrument, such as that on Nimbus 7, with an SBUV instrument, also on Nimbus 7, we find systematic differences and random differences. We have combined these findings with estimates of individual instrument drift into a monte- carlo uncertainty propagation model. We estimate an instrument drift uncertainty of a little larger than 1 percent per decade over the 25-year history of the TOMS/SBUV measurements. We make an independent estimate of the drift uncertainty in the ground-based network of total ozone measurements and find it to be of similar, but slightly smaller magnitude. The implications of these uncertainties for trend and recovery determination will be discussed.

Market Access Agreements for pharmaceuticals in Europe: diversity of approaches and underlying concepts.

PubMed

Jarosławski, Szymon; Toumi, Mondher

2011-10-08

Market Access Agreements (MAA) between pharmaceutical industry and health care payers have been proliferating in Europe in the last years. MAA can be simple discounts from the list price or very sophisticated schemes with inarguably high administrative burden. We distinguished and defined from the health care payer perspective three kinds of MAA: Commercial Agreements (CA), Payment for Performance Agreements (P4P) and Coverage with Evidence Development (CED). Apart from CA, the agreements assumed collection and analysis of real-life health outcomes data, either from a cohort of patients (CED) or on per patient basis (P4P). We argue that while P4P aim at reducing drug cost to payers without a systematic approach to addressing uncertainty about drugs' value, CED were implemented provisionally to reduce payer's uncertainty about value of a medicine within a defined time period. We are of opinion that while CA and P4P have a potential to reduce payers' expenditure on costly drugs while maintaining a high list price, CED address initial uncertainty related to assessing the real-life value of new drugs and enable a final HTA recommendation or reimbursement and pricing decisions. Further, we suggest that real cost to health care payers of drugs in CA and P4P should be made publicly available in a systematic manner, to avoid a perverse impact of these MAA types on the international reference pricing system.

Search for tensor-like couplings in the β-decay of laser trapped 6He

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leredde, Arnaud; Bailey, Kevin; Mueller, Peter; O'Connor, Tom; Bagdasarova, Yelena; Garcia, Alejandro; Hong, Ran; Sternberg, Matthew; Storm, Derek; Swanson, Erik; Wauters, Frederik; Zumwalt, David; Flechard, Xavier; Naviliat-Cuncic, Oscar

2015-10-01

The beta-neutrino angular correlation in nuclear beta decay can reveal the nature of the weak interaction. The case of 6He is particularly sensitive to test for tensor contributions by measuring the corresponding angular correlation parameter aβν. Trapping techniques such as magneto-optical traps (MOT) combined with recoil ion momentum spectroscopy are powerful tools which allow to measure aβν with high precision. The experiment, located at the University of Washington, takes advantage of the tandem Van de Graaff accelerator to produce up to 2×1010 6He/s. A double-MOT setup has been optimized to trap and detect beta-recoil-ion coincidences at a rate of a few Hertz. Systematic effects have been investigated in details and major effort has been put to limit their contribution to less than 1% of aβν. The first goal of this experiment is to measure aβν with this 1% uncertainty and use this set of data to guide further improvements with the goal to bring the uncertainty to the 0.1% level. The performances of the trap setup, preliminary coincidence data, and studies of systematic uncertainties will be presented. This work is supported by DOE, Office of Nuclear Physics, under Contract Nos. DE-AC02-06CH11357 and DE-FG02-97ER41020.

Multi-model seasonal forecast of Arctic sea-ice: forecast uncertainty at pan-Arctic and regional scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.; Barthélemy, A.; Chevallier, M.; Cullather, R.; Fučkar, N.; Massonnet, F.; Posey, P.; Wang, W.; Zhang, J.; Ardilouze, C.; Bitz, C. M.; Vernieres, G.; Wallcraft, A.; Wang, M.

2017-08-01

Dynamical model forecasts in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) of September Arctic sea-ice extent over the last decade have shown lower skill than that found in both idealized model experiments and hindcasts of previous decades. Additionally, it is unclear how different model physics, initial conditions or forecast post-processing (bias correction) techniques contribute to SIO forecast uncertainty. In this work, we have produced a seasonal forecast of 2015 Arctic summer sea ice using SIO dynamical models initialized with identical sea-ice thickness in the central Arctic. Our goals are to calculate the relative contribution of model uncertainty and irreducible error growth to forecast uncertainty and assess the importance of post-processing, and to contrast pan-Arctic forecast uncertainty with regional forecast uncertainty. We find that prior to forecast post-processing, model uncertainty is the main contributor to forecast uncertainty, whereas after forecast post-processing forecast uncertainty is reduced overall, model uncertainty is reduced by an order of magnitude, and irreducible error growth becomes the main contributor to forecast uncertainty. While all models generally agree in their post-processed forecasts of September sea-ice volume and extent, this is not the case for sea-ice concentration. Additionally, forecast uncertainty of sea-ice thickness grows at a much higher rate along Arctic coastlines relative to the central Arctic ocean. Potential ways of offering spatial forecast information based on the timescale over which the forecast signal beats the noise are also explored.

Systematically evaluating read-across prediction and performance using a local validity approach characterized by chemical structure and bioactivity information

EPA Science Inventory

Read-across is a popular data gap filling technique within category and analogue approaches for regulatory purposes. Acceptance of read-across remains an ongoing challenge with several efforts underway for identifying and addressing uncertainties. Here we demonstrate an algorithm...

HYDROLOGIC MODEL CALIBRATION AND UNCERTAINTY IN SCENARIO ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

A systematic analysis of model performance during simulations based on

observed land-cover/use change is used to quantify error associated with water-yield

simulations for a series of known landscape conditions over a 24-year period with the

goal of evaluatin...

Categorical Biases in Spatial Memory: The Role of Certainty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holden, Mark P.; Newcombe, Nora S.; Shipley, Thomas F.

2015-01-01

Memories for spatial locations often show systematic errors toward the central value of the surrounding region. The Category Adjustment (CA) model suggests that this bias is due to a Bayesian combination of categorical and metric information, which offers an optimal solution under conditions of uncertainty (Huttenlocher, Hedges, & Duncan,…

Asymmetries in Predictive and Diagnostic Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fernbach, Philip M.; Darlow, Adam; Sloman, Steven A.

2011-01-01

In this article, we address the apparent discrepancy between causal Bayes net theories of cognition, which posit that judgments of uncertainty are generated from causal beliefs in a way that respects the norms of probability, and evidence that probability judgments based on causal beliefs are systematically in error. One purported source of bias…

The New Muon g₋2 experiment at Fermilab

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Venanzoni, Graziano

2016-06-02

There is a long standing discrepancy between the Standard Model prediction for the muon g-2 and the value measured by the Brookhaven E821 Experiment. At present the discrepancy stands at about three standard deviations, with a comparable accuracy between experiment and theory. Two new proposals -- at Fermilab and J-PARC -- plan to improve the experimental uncertainty by a factor of 4, and it is expected that there will be a significant reduction in the uncertainty of the Standard Model prediction. I will review the status of the planned experiment at Fermilab, E989, which will analyse 21 times more muonsmore » than the BNL experiment and discuss how the systematic uncertainty will be reduced by a factor of 3 such that a precision of 0.14 ppm can be achieved.« less

Hierarchical Multi-Scale Approach To Validation and Uncertainty Quantification of Hyper-Spectral Image Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Engel, David W.; Reichardt, Thomas A.; Kulp, Thomas J.

Validating predictive models and quantifying uncertainties inherent in the modeling process is a critical component of the HARD Solids Venture program [1]. Our current research focuses on validating physics-based models predicting the optical properties of solid materials for arbitrary surface morphologies and characterizing the uncertainties in these models. We employ a systematic and hierarchical approach by designing physical experiments and comparing the experimental results with the outputs of computational predictive models. We illustrate this approach through an example comparing a micro-scale forward model to an idealized solid-material system and then propagating the results through a system model to the sensormore » level. Our efforts should enhance detection reliability of the hyper-spectral imaging technique and the confidence in model utilization and model outputs by users and stakeholders.« less

Intrinsic uncertainty on the nature of dark energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valkenburg, Wessel; Kunz, Martin; Marra, Valerio

2013-12-01

We argue that there is an intrinsic noise on measurements of the equation of state parameter w = p/ρ from large-scale structure around us. The presence of the large-scale structure leads to an ambiguity in the definition of the background universe and thus there is a maximal precision with which we can determine the equation of state of dark energy. To study the uncertainty due to local structure, we model density perturbations stemming from a standard inflationary power spectrum by means of the exact Lemaître-Tolman-Bondi solution of Einstein’s equation, and show that the usual distribution of matter inhomogeneities in a ΛCDM cosmology causes a variation of w - as inferred from distance measures - of several percent. As we observe only one universe, or equivalently because of the cosmic variance, this uncertainty is systematic in nature.

Uncertainty Modeling for Structural Control Analysis and Synthesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, Mark E.; Crawley, Edward F.

1996-01-01

The development of an accurate model of uncertainties for the control of structures that undergo a change in operational environment, based solely on modeling and experimentation in the original environment is studied. The application used throughout this work is the development of an on-orbit uncertainty model based on ground modeling and experimentation. A ground based uncertainty model consisting of mean errors and bounds on critical structural parameters is developed. The uncertainty model is created using multiple data sets to observe all relevant uncertainties in the system. The Discrete Extended Kalman Filter is used as an identification/parameter estimation method for each data set, in addition to providing a covariance matrix which aids in the development of the uncertainty model. Once ground based modal uncertainties have been developed, they are localized to specific degrees of freedom in the form of mass and stiffness uncertainties. Two techniques are presented: a matrix method which develops the mass and stiffness uncertainties in a mathematical manner; and a sensitivity method which assumes a form for the mass and stiffness uncertainties in macroelements and scaling factors. This form allows the derivation of mass and stiffness uncertainties in a more physical manner. The mass and stiffness uncertainties of the ground based system are then mapped onto the on-orbit system, and projected to create an analogous on-orbit uncertainty model in the form of mean errors and bounds on critical parameters. The Middeck Active Control Experiment is introduced as experimental verification for the localization and projection methods developed. In addition, closed loop results from on-orbit operations of the experiment verify the use of the uncertainty model for control analysis and synthesis in space.

On the prospects of cross-calibrating the Cherenkov Telescope Array with an airborne calibration platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Anthony M.

2018-01-01

Recent advances in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology have made UAVs an attractive possibility as an airborne calibration platform for astronomical facilities. This is especially true for arrays of telescopes spread over a large area such as the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA). In this paper, the feasibility of using UAVs to calibrate CTA is investigated. Assuming a UAV at 1km altitude above CTA, operating on astronomically clear nights with stratified, low atmospheric dust content, appropriate thermal protection for the calibration light source and an onboard photodiode to monitor its absolute light intensity, inter-calibration of CTA's telescopes of the same size class is found to be achievable with a 6 - 8 % uncertainty. For cross-calibration of different telescope size classes, a systematic uncertainty of 8 - 10 % is found to be achievable. Importantly, equipping the UAV with a multi-wavelength calibration light source affords us the ability to monitor the wavelength-dependent degradation of CTA telescopes' optical system, allowing us to not only maintain this 6 - 10 % uncertainty after the first few years of telescope deployment, but also to accurately account for the effect of multi-wavelength degradation on the cross-calibration of CTA by other techniques, namely with images of air showers and local muons. A UAV-based system thus provides CTA with several independent and complementary methods of cross-calibrating the optical throughput of individual telescopes. Furthermore, housing environmental sensors on the UAV system allows us to not only minimise the systematic uncertainty associated with the atmospheric transmission of the calibration signal, it also allows us to map the dust content above CTA as well as monitor the temperature, humidity and pressure profiles of the first kilometre of atmosphere above CTA with each UAV flight.

Variability And Uncertainty Analysis Of Contaminant Transport Model Using Fuzzy Latin Hypercube Sampling Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, V.; Nayagum, D.; Thornton, S.; Banwart, S.; Schuhmacher2, M.; Lerner, D.

2006-12-01

Characterization of uncertainty associated with groundwater quality models is often of critical importance, as for example in cases where environmental models are employed in risk assessment. Insufficient data, inherent variability and estimation errors of environmental model parameters introduce uncertainty into model predictions. However, uncertainty analysis using conventional methods such as standard Monte Carlo sampling (MCS) may not be efficient, or even suitable, for complex, computationally demanding models and involving different nature of parametric variability and uncertainty. General MCS or variant of MCS such as Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) assumes variability and uncertainty as a single random entity and the generated samples are treated as crisp assuming vagueness as randomness. Also when the models are used as purely predictive tools, uncertainty and variability lead to the need for assessment of the plausible range of model outputs. An improved systematic variability and uncertainty analysis can provide insight into the level of confidence in model estimates, and can aid in assessing how various possible model estimates should be weighed. The present study aims to introduce, Fuzzy Latin Hypercube Sampling (FLHS), a hybrid approach of incorporating cognitive and noncognitive uncertainties. The noncognitive uncertainty such as physical randomness, statistical uncertainty due to limited information, etc can be described by its own probability density function (PDF); whereas the cognitive uncertainty such estimation error etc can be described by the membership function for its fuzziness and confidence interval by ?-cuts. An important property of this theory is its ability to merge inexact generated data of LHS approach to increase the quality of information. The FLHS technique ensures that the entire range of each variable is sampled with proper incorporation of uncertainty and variability. A fuzzified statistical summary of the model results will produce indices of sensitivity and uncertainty that relate the effects of heterogeneity and uncertainty of input variables to model predictions. The feasibility of the method is validated to assess uncertainty propagation of parameter values for estimation of the contamination level of a drinking water supply well due to transport of dissolved phenolics from a contaminated site in the UK.

Water supply infrastructure planning under multiple uncertainties: A differentiated approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fletcher, S.; Strzepek, K.

2017-12-01

Many water planners face increased pressure on water supply systems from increasing demands from population and economic growth in combination with uncertain water supply. Supply uncertainty arises from short-term climate variability and long-term climate change as well as uncertainty in groundwater availability. Social and economic uncertainties - such as sectoral competition for water, food and energy security, urbanization, and environmental protection - compound physical uncertainty. Further, the varying risk aversion of stakeholders and water managers makes it difficult to assess the necessity of expensive infrastructure investments to reduce risk. We categorize these uncertainties on two dimensions: whether they can be updated over time by collecting additional information, and whether the uncertainties can be described probabilistically or are "deep" uncertainties whose likelihood is unknown. Based on this, we apply a decision framework that combines simulation for probabilistic uncertainty, scenario analysis for deep uncertainty, and multi-stage decision analysis for uncertainties that are reduced over time with additional information. In light of these uncertainties and the investment costs of large infrastructure, we propose the assessment of staged, modular infrastructure and information updating as a hedge against risk. We apply this framework to cases in Melbourne, Australia and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Melbourne is a surface water system facing uncertain population growth and variable rainfall and runoff. A severe drought from 1997 to 2009 prompted investment in a 150 MCM/y reverse osmosis desalination plan with a capital cost of 3.5 billion. Our analysis shows that flexible design in which a smaller portion of capacity is developed initially with the option to add modular capacity in the future can mitigate uncertainty and reduce the expected lifetime costs by up to 1 billion. In Riyadh, urban water use relies on fossil groundwater aquifers and desalination. Intense withdrawals for urban and agricultural use will lead to lowering of the water table in the aquifer at rapid but uncertain rates due to poor groundwater characterization. We assess the potential for additional groundwater data collection and a flexible infrastructure approach similar to that in Melbourne to mitigate risk.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carena, Marcela; Liu, Zhen

Heavy scalar and pseudoscalar resonance searches through themore » $$gg\\rightarrow S\\rightarrow t\\bar t$$ process are challenging due to the peculiar behavior of the large interference effects with the standard model $$t\\bar t$$ background. Such effects generate non-trivial lineshapes from additional relative phases between the signal and background amplitudes. We provide the analytic expressions for the differential cross sections to understand the interference effects in the heavy scalar signal lineshapes. We extend our study to the case of CP-violation and further consider the effect of bottom quarks in the production and decay processes. We also evaluate the contributions from additional particles to the gluon fusion production process, such as stops and vector-like quarks, that could lead to significant changes in the behavior of the signal lineshapes. Taking into account the large interference effects, we perform lineshape searches at the LHC and discuss the importance of the systematic uncertainties and smearing effects. Lastly, we present projected sensitivities for two LHC performance scenarios to probe the $$gg\\rightarrow S \\rightarrow t\\bar t$$ channel in various models.« less

Optimal surveys for weak-lensing tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amara, Adam; Réfrégier, Alexandre

2007-11-01

Weak-lensing surveys provide a powerful probe of dark energy through the measurement of the mass distribution of the local Universe. A number of ground-based and space-based surveys are being planned for this purpose. Here, we study the optimal strategy for these future surveys using the joint constraints on the equation-of-state parameter wn and its evolution wa as a figure of merit by considering power spectrum tomography. For this purpose, we first consider an `ideal' survey which is both wide and deep and exempt from systematics. We find that such a survey has great potential for dark energy studies, reaching 1σ precisions of 1 and 10 per cent on the two parameters, respectively. We then study the relative impact of various limitations by degrading this ideal survey. In particular, we consider the effect of sky coverage, survey depth, shape measurement systematics, photometric redshift systematics and uncertainties in the non-linear power spectrum predictions. We find that, for a given observing time, it is always advantageous to choose a wide rather than a deep survey geometry. We also find that the dark energy constraints from power spectrum tomography are robust to photometric redshift errors and catastrophic failures, if a spectroscopic calibration sample of 104-105 galaxies are available. The impact of these systematics is small compared to the limitations that come from potential uncertainties in the power spectrum, due to shear measurement and theoretical errors. To help the planning of future surveys, we summarize our results with comprehensive scaling relations which avoid the need for full Fisher matrix calculations.

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of a Pebble Bed HTGR Loss of Cooling Event

DOE PAGES

Strydom, Gerhard

2013-01-01

The Very High Temperature Reactor Methods Development group at the Idaho National Laboratory identified the need for a defensible and systematic uncertainty and sensitivity approach in 2009. This paper summarizes the results of an uncertainty and sensitivity quantification investigation performed with the SUSA code, utilizing the International Atomic Energy Agency CRP 5 Pebble Bed Modular Reactor benchmark and the INL code suite PEBBED-THERMIX. Eight model input parameters were selected for inclusion in this study, and after the input parameters variations and probability density functions were specified, a total of 800 steady state and depressurized loss of forced cooling (DLOFC) transientmore » PEBBED-THERMIX calculations were performed. The six data sets were statistically analyzed to determine the 5% and 95% DLOFC peak fuel temperature tolerance intervals with 95% confidence levels. It was found that the uncertainties in the decay heat and graphite thermal conductivities were the most significant contributors to the propagated DLOFC peak fuel temperature uncertainty. No significant differences were observed between the results of Simple Random Sampling (SRS) or Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) data sets, and use of uniform or normal input parameter distributions also did not lead to any significant differences between these data sets.« less

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 2: Appendices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M.

1997-12-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library ofmore » uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on deposited material and external doses, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.« less

Differentiating intolerance of uncertainty from three related but distinct constructs.

PubMed

Rosen, Natalie O; Ivanova, Elena; Knäuper, Bärbel

2014-01-01

Individual differences in uncertainty have been associated with heightened anxiety, stress and approach-oriented coping. Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) is a trait characteristic that arises from negative beliefs about uncertainty and its consequences. Researchers have established the central role of IU in the development of problematic worry and maladaptive coping, highlighting the importance of this construct to anxiety disorders. However, there is a need to improve our understanding of the phenomenology of IU. The goal of this paper was to present hypotheses regarding the similarities and differences between IU and three related constructs--intolerance of ambiguity, uncertainty orientation, and need for cognitive closure--and to call for future empirical studies to substantiate these hypotheses. To assist with achieving this goal, we conducted a systematic review of the literature, which also served to identify current gaps in knowledge. This paper differentiates these constructs by outlining each definition and general approaches to assessment, reviewing the existing empirical relations, and proposing theoretical similarities and distinctions. Findings may assist researchers in selecting the appropriate construct to address their research questions. Future research directions for the application of these constructs, particularly within the field of clinical and health psychology, are discussed.

The Fermi Galactic Center GeV excess and implications for dark matter

DOE PAGES

Ackermann, M.; Ajello, M.; Albert, A.; ...

2017-05-04

Here, the region around the Galactic Center (GC) is now well established to be brighter at energies of a few GeV than what is expected from conventional models of diffuse gamma-ray emission and catalogs of known gamma-ray sources. We study the GeV excess using 6.5 yr of data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope. We characterize the uncertainty of the GC excess spectrum and morphology due to uncertainties in cosmic-ray source distributions and propagation, uncertainties in the distribution of interstellar gas in the Milky Way, and uncertainties due to a potential contribution from the Fermi bubbles. We also evaluate uncertaintiesmore » in the excess properties due to resolved point sources of gamma rays. The GC is of particular interest, as it would be expected to have the brightest signal from annihilation of weakly interacting massive dark matter (DM) particles. However, control regions along the Galactic plane, where a DM signal is not expected, show excesses of similar amplitude relative to the local background. Furthermore, based on the magnitude of the systematic uncertainties, we conservatively report upper limits for the annihilation cross-section as a function of particle mass and annihilation channel.« less

An Efficient Deterministic Approach to Model-based Prediction Uncertainty Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew J.; Saxena, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai

2012-01-01

Prognostics deals with the prediction of the end of life (EOL) of a system. EOL is a random variable, due to the presence of process noise and uncertainty in the future inputs to the system. Prognostics algorithm must account for this inherent uncertainty. In addition, these algorithms never know exactly the state of the system at the desired time of prediction, or the exact model describing the future evolution of the system, accumulating additional uncertainty into the predicted EOL. Prediction algorithms that do not account for these sources of uncertainty are misrepresenting the EOL and can lead to poor decisions based on their results. In this paper, we explore the impact of uncertainty in the prediction problem. We develop a general model-based prediction algorithm that incorporates these sources of uncertainty, and propose a novel approach to efficiently handle uncertainty in the future input trajectories of a system by using the unscented transformation. Using this approach, we are not only able to reduce the computational load but also estimate the bounds of uncertainty in a deterministic manner, which can be useful to consider during decision-making. Using a lithium-ion battery as a case study, we perform several simulation-based experiments to explore these issues, and validate the overall approach using experimental data from a battery testbed.

Methodology for quantifying uncertainty in coal assessments with an application to a Texas lignite deposit

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olea, R.A.; Luppens, J.A.; Tewalt, S.J.

2011-01-01

A common practice for characterizing uncertainty in coal resource assessments has been the itemization of tonnage at the mining unit level and the classification of such units according to distance to drilling holes. Distance criteria, such as those used in U.S. Geological Survey Circular 891, are still widely used for public disclosure. A major deficiency of distance methods is that they do not provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty. Additionally, relying on distance between data points alone does not take into consideration other factors known to have an influence on uncertainty, such as spatial correlation, type of probability distribution followed by the data, geological discontinuities, and boundary of the deposit. Several geostatistical methods have been combined to formulate a quantitative characterization for appraising uncertainty. Drill hole datasets ranging from widespread exploration drilling to detailed development drilling from a lignite deposit in Texas were used to illustrate the modeling. The results show that distance to the nearest drill hole is almost completely unrelated to uncertainty, which confirms the inadequacy of characterizing uncertainty based solely on a simple classification of resources by distance classes. The more complex statistical methods used in this study quantify uncertainty and show good agreement between confidence intervals in the uncertainty predictions and data from additional drilling. ?? 2010.

Effects of radiobiological uncertainty on shield design for a 60-day lunar mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, John W.; Nealy, John E.; Schimmerling, Walter

1993-01-01

Some consequences of uncertainties in radiobiological risk due to galactic cosmic ray exposure are analyzed to determine their effect on engineering designs for a first lunar outpost - a 60-day mission. Quantitative estimates of shield mass requirements as a function of a radiobiological uncertainty factor are given for a simplified vehicle structure. The additional shield mass required for compensation is calculated as a function of the uncertainty in galactic cosmic ray exposure, and this mass is found to be as large as a factor of 3 for a lunar transfer vehicle. The additional cost resulting from this mass is also calculated. These cost estimates are then used to exemplify the cost-effectiveness of research.

Quantification and propagation of disciplinary uncertainty via Bayesian statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mantis, George Constantine

2002-08-01

Several needs exist in the military, commercial, and civil sectors for new hypersonic systems. These needs remain unfulfilled, due in part to the uncertainty encountered in designing these systems. This uncertainty takes a number of forms, including disciplinary uncertainty, that which is inherent in the analytical tools utilized during the design process. Yet, few efforts to date empower the designer with the means to account for this uncertainty within the disciplinary analyses. In the current state-of-the-art in design, the effects of this unquantifiable uncertainty significantly increase the risks associated with new design efforts. Typically, the risk proves too great to allow a given design to proceed beyond the conceptual stage. To that end, the research encompasses the formulation and validation of a new design method, a systematic process for probabilistically assessing the impact of disciplinary uncertainty. The method implements Bayesian Statistics theory to quantify this source of uncertainty, and propagate its effects to the vehicle system level. Comparison of analytical and physical data for existing systems, modeled a priori in the given analysis tools, leads to quantification of uncertainty in those tools' calculation of discipline-level metrics. Then, after exploration of the new vehicle's design space, the quantified uncertainty is propagated probabilistically through the design space. This ultimately results in the assessment of the impact of disciplinary uncertainty on the confidence in the design solution: the final shape and variability of the probability functions defining the vehicle's system-level metrics. Although motivated by the hypersonic regime, the proposed treatment of uncertainty applies to any class of aerospace vehicle, just as the problem itself affects the design process of any vehicle. A number of computer programs comprise the environment constructed for the implementation of this work. Application to a single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) reusable launch vehicle concept, developed by the NASA Langley Research Center under the Space Launch Initiative, provides the validation case for this work, with the focus placed on economics, aerothermodynamics, propulsion, and structures metrics. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Rational decision-making in mental health: the role of systematic reviews.

PubMed

Gilbody, Simon M.; Petticrew, Mark

1999-09-01

BACKGROUND: "Systematic reviews" have come to be recognized as the most rigorous method of summarizing confusing and often contradictory primary research in a transparent and reproducible manner. Their greatest impact has been in the summarization of epidemiological literature - particularly that relating to clinical effectiveness. Systematic reviews also have a potential to inform rational decision-making in healthcare policy and to form a component of economic evaluation. AIMS OF THE STUDY: This article aims to introduce the rationale behind systematic reviews and, using examples from mental health, to introduce the strengths and limitations of systematic reviews, particularly in informing mental health policy and economic evaluation. METHODS: Examples are selected from recent controversies surrounding the introduction of new psychiatric drugs (anti-depressants and anti-schizophrenia drugs) and methods of delivering psychiatric care in the community (case management and assertive community treatment). The potential for systematic reviews to (i) produce best estimates of clinical efficacy and effectiveness, (ii) aid economic evaluation and policy decision-making and (iii) highlight gaps in the primary research knowledge base are discussed. Lastly examples are selected from outside mental health to show how systematic reviews have a potential to be explicitly used in economic and health policy evaluation. RESULTS: Systematic reviews produce the best estimates of clinical efficacy, which can form an important component of economic evaluation. Importantly, serious methodological flaws and areas of uncertainty in the primary research literature are identified within an explicit framework. Summary indices of clinical effectiveness can be produced, but it is difficult to produce such summary indices of cost effectiveness by pooling economic data from primary studies. Modelling is commonly used in economic and policy evaluation. Here, systematic reviews can provide the best estimates of effectiveness and, importantly, highlight areas of uncertainty that can be used in "sensitivity analysis". DISCUSSION: Systematic reviews are an important recent methodological advance, the potential for which has only begun to be realized in mental health. This use of systematic reviews is probably most advanced in producing critical summaries of clinical effectiveness data. Systematic reviews cannot produce valid and believable conclusions when the primary research literature is of poor quality. An important function of systematic reviews will be in highlighting this poor quality research which is of little use in mental health decision making. IMPLICATIONS FOR HEALTH PROVISION: Health care provision should be both clinically and cost effective. Systematic reviews are a key component in ensuring that this goal is achieved. IMPLICATIONS FOR HEALTH POLICIES: Systematic reviews have potential to inform health policy. Examples presented show that health policy is often made without due consideration of the research evidence. Systematic reviews can provide robust and believable answers, which can help inform rational decision-making. Importantly, systematic reviews can highlight the need for important primary research and can inform the design of this research such that it provides answers that will help in forming healthcare policy. IMPLICATIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH: Systematic reviews should precede costly (and often unnecessary) primary research. Many areas of health policy and practice have yet to be evaluated using systematic review methodology. Methods for the summarization of economic data are methodologically complex and deserve further research

Characterizing unknown systematics in large scale structure surveys

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Agarwal, Nishant; Ho, Shirley; Myers, Adam D.

Photometric large scale structure (LSS) surveys probe the largest volumes in the Universe, but are inevitably limited by systematic uncertainties. Imperfect photometric calibration leads to biases in our measurements of the density fields of LSS tracers such as galaxies and quasars, and as a result in cosmological parameter estimation. Earlier studies have proposed using cross-correlations between different redshift slices or cross-correlations between different surveys to reduce the effects of such systematics. In this paper we develop a method to characterize unknown systematics. We demonstrate that while we do not have sufficient information to correct for unknown systematics in the data,more » we can obtain an estimate of their magnitude. We define a parameter to estimate contamination from unknown systematics using cross-correlations between different redshift slices and propose discarding bins in the angular power spectrum that lie outside a certain contamination tolerance level. We show that this method improves estimates of the bias using simulated data and further apply it to photometric luminous red galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey as a case study.« less

Effects of vegetation canopy on the radar backscattering coefficient

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mo, T.; Blanchard, B. J.; Schmugge, T. J.

1983-01-01

Airborne L- and C-band scatterometer data, taken over both vegetation-covered and bare fields, were systematically analyzed and theoretically reproduced, using a recently developed model for calculating radar backscattering coefficients of rough soil surfaces. The results show that the model can reproduce the observed angular variations of radar backscattering coefficient quite well via a least-squares fit method. Best fits to the data provide estimates of the statistical properties of the surface roughness, which is characterized by two parameters: the standard deviation of surface height, and the surface correlation length. In addition, the processes of vegetation attenuation and volume scattering require two canopy parameters, the canopy optical thickness and a volume scattering factor. Canopy parameter values for individual vegetation types, including alfalfa, milo and corn, were also determined from the best-fit results. The uncertainties in the scatterometer data were also explored.

Measurements of Absolute Hadronic Branching Fractions of the Λ_{c}^{+} Baryon.

PubMed

Ablikim, M; Achasov, M N; Ai, X C; Albayrak, O; Albrecht, M; Ambrose, D J; Amoroso, A; An, F F; An, Q; Bai, J Z; Baldini Ferroli, R; Ban, Y; Bennett, D W; Bennett, J V; Bertani, M; Bettoni, D; Bian, J M; Bianchi, F; Boger, E; Boyko, I; Briere, R A; Cai, H; Cai, X; Cakir, O; Calcaterra, A; Cao, G F; Cetin, S A; Chang, J F; Chelkov, G; Chen, G; Chen, H S; Chen, H Y; Chen, J C; Chen, M L; Chen, S J; Chen, X; Chen, X R; Chen, Y B; Cheng, H P; Chu, X K; Cibinetto, G; Dai, H L; Dai, J P; Dbeyssi, A; Dedovich, D; Deng, Z Y; Denig, A; Denysenko, I; Destefanis, M; De Mori, F; Ding, Y; Dong, C; Dong, J; Dong, L Y; Dong, M Y; Dou, Z L; Du, S X; Duan, P F; Eren, E E; Fan, J Z; Fang, J; Fang, S S; Fang, X; Fang, Y; Farinelli, R; Fava, L; Fedorov, O; Feldbauer, F; Felici, G; Feng, C Q; Fioravanti, E; Fritsch, M; Fu, C D; Gao, Q; Gao, X L; Gao, X Y; Gao, Y; Gao, Z; Garzia, I; Goetzen, K; Gong, L; Gong, W X; Gradl, W; Greco, M; Gu, M H; Gu, Y T; Guan, Y H; Guo, A Q; Guo, L B; Guo, Y; Guo, Y P; Haddadi, Z; Hafner, A; Han, S; Hao, X Q; Harris, F A; He, K L; Held, T; Heng, Y K; Hou, Z L; Hu, C; Hu, H M; Hu, J F; Hu, T; Hu, Y; Huang, G S; Huang, J S; Huang, X T; Huang, Y; Hussain, T; Ji, Q; Ji, Q P; Ji, X B; Ji, X L; Jiang, L W; Jiang, X S; Jiang, X Y; Jiao, J B; Jiao, Z; Jin, D P; Jin, S; Johansson, T; Julin, A; Kalantar-Nayestanaki, N; Kang, X L; Kang, X S; Kavatsyuk, M; Ke, B C; Kiese, P; Kliemt, R; Kloss, B; Kolcu, O B; Kopf, B; Kornicer, M; Kuehn, W; Kupsc, A; Lange, J S; Lara, M; Larin, P; Leng, C; Li, C; Li, Cheng; Li, D M; Li, F; Li, F Y; Li, G; Li, H B; Li, J C; Li, Jin; Li, K; Li, K; Li, Lei; Li, P R; Li, Q Y; Li, T; Li, W D; Li, W G; Li, X L; Li, X M; Li, X N; Li, X Q; Li, Z B; Liang, H; Liang, Y F; Liang, Y T; Liao, G R; Lin, D X; Liu, B J; Liu, C X; Liu, D; Liu, F H; Liu, Fang; Liu, Feng; Liu, H B; Liu, H H; Liu, H H; Liu, H M; Liu, J; Liu, J B; Liu, J P; Liu, J Y; Liu, K; Liu, K Y; Liu, L D; Liu, P L; Liu, Q; Liu, S B; Liu, X; Liu, Y B; Liu, Z A; Liu, Zhiqing; Loehner, H; Lou, X C; Lu, H J; Lu, J G; Lu, Y; Lu, Y P; Luo, C L; Luo, M X; Luo, T; Luo, X L; Lyu, X R; Ma, F C; Ma, H L; Ma, L L; Ma, Q M; Ma, T; Ma, X N; Ma, X Y; Ma, Y M; Maas, F E; Maggiora, M; Mao, Y J; Mao, Z P; Marcello, S; Messchendorp, J G; Min, J; Mitchell, R E; Mo, X H; Mo, Y J; Morales Morales, C; Muchnoi, N Yu; Muramatsu, H; Nefedov, Y; Nerling, F; Nikolaev, I B; Ning, Z; Nisar, S; Niu, S L; Niu, X Y; Olsen, S L; Ouyang, Q; Pacetti, S; Pan, Y; Patteri, P; Pelizaeus, M; Peng, H P; Peters, K; Pettersson, J; Ping, J L; Ping, R G; Poling, R; Prasad, V; Qi, H R; Qi, M; Qian, S; Qiao, C F; Qin, L Q; Qin, N; Qin, X S; Qin, Z H; Qiu, J F; Rashid, K H; Redmer, C F; Ripka, M; Rong, G; Rosner, Ch; Ruan, X D; Santoro, V; Sarantsev, A; Savrié, M; Schoenning, K; Schumann, S; Shan, W; Shao, M; Shen, C P; Shen, P X; Shen, X Y; Sheng, H Y; Song, W M; Song, X Y; Sosio, S; Spataro, S; Sun, G X; Sun, J F; Sun, S S; Sun, Y J; Sun, Y Z; Sun, Z J; Sun, Z T; Tang, C J; Tang, X; Tapan, I; Thorndike, E H; Tiemens, M; Ullrich, M; Uman, I; Varner, G S; Wang, B; Wang, B L; Wang, D; Wang, D Y; Wang, K; Wang, L L; Wang, L S; Wang, M; Wang, P; Wang, P L; Wang, S G; Wang, W; Wang, W P; Wang, X F; Wang, Y D; Wang, Y F; Wang, Y Q; Wang, Z; Wang, Z G; Wang, Z H; Wang, Z Y; Weber, T; Wei, D H; Wei, J B; Weidenkaff, P; Wen, S P; Wiedner, U; Wolke, M; Wu, L H; Wu, Z; Xia, L; Xia, L G; Xia, Y; Xiao, D; Xiao, H; Xiao, Z J; Xie, Y G; Xiu, Q L; Xu, G F; Xu, L; Xu, Q J; Xu, Q N; Xu, X P; Yan, L; Yan, W B; Yan, W C; Yan, Y H; Yang, H J; Yang, H X; Yang, L; Yang, Y X; Ye, M; Ye, M H; Yin, J H; Yu, B X; Yu, C X; Yu, J S; Yuan, C Z; Yuan, W L; Yuan, Y; Yuncu, A; Zafar, A A; Zallo, A; Zeng, Y; Zeng, Z; Zhang, B X; Zhang, B Y; Zhang, C; Zhang, C C; Zhang, D H; Zhang, H H; Zhang, H Y; Zhang, J J; Zhang, J L; Zhang, J Q; Zhang, J W; Zhang, J Y; Zhang, J Z; Zhang, K; Zhang, L; Zhang, X Y; Zhang, Y; Zhang, Y H; Zhang, Y N; Zhang, Y T; Zhang, Yu; Zhang, Z H; Zhang, Z P; Zhang, Z Y; Zhao, G; Zhao, J W; Zhao, J Y; Zhao, J Z; Zhao, Lei; Zhao, Ling; Zhao, M G; Zhao, Q; Zhao, Q W; Zhao, S J; Zhao, T C; Zhao, Y B; Zhao, Z G; Zhemchugov, A; Zheng, B; Zheng, J P; Zheng, W J; Zheng, Y H; Zhong, B; Zhou, L; Zhou, X; Zhou, X K; Zhou, X R; Zhou, X Y; Zhu, K; Zhu, K J; Zhu, S; Zhu, S H; Zhu, X L; Zhu, Y C; Zhu, Y S; Zhu, Z A; Zhuang, J; Zotti, L; Zou, B S; Zou, J H

2016-02-05

We report the first measurement of absolute hadronic branching fractions of Λ_{c}^{+} baryon at the Λ_{c}^{+}Λ[over ¯]_{c}^{-} production threshold, in the 30 years since the Λ_{c}^{+} discovery. In total, 12 Cabibbo-favored Λ_{c}^{+} hadronic decay modes are analyzed with a double-tag technique, based on a sample of 567  pb^{-1} of e^{+}e^{-} collisions at sqrt[s]=4.599  GeV recorded with the BESIII detector. A global least-squares fitter is utilized to improve the measured precision. Among the measurements for twelve Λ_{c}^{+} decay modes, the branching fraction for Λ_{c}^{+}→pK^{-}π^{+} is determined to be (5.84±0.27±0.23)%, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic. In addition, the measurements of the branching fractions of the other 11 Cabibbo-favored hadronic decay modes are significantly improved.

Measuring Anxiety as a Treatment Endpoint in Youth with Autism Spectrum Disorder

PubMed Central

Lecavalier, Luc; Wood, Jeffrey J.; Halladay, Alycia K.; Jones, Nancy E.; Aman, Michael G.; Cook, Edwin H.; Handen, Benjamin L.; King, Bryan H.; Pearson, Deborah A.; Hallett, Victoria; Sullivan, Katherine Anne; Grondhuis, Sabrina; Bishop, Somer L.; Horrigan, Joseph P.; Dawson, Geraldine; Scahill, Lawrence

2013-01-01

Despite the high rate of anxiety in individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), measuring anxiety in ASD is fraught with uncertainty. This is due, in part, to incomplete consensus on the manifestations of anxiety in this population. Autism Speaks assembled a panel of experts to conduct a systematic review of available measures for anxiety in youth with ASD. To complete the review, the panel held monthly conference calls and two face-to-face meetings over a fourteen-month period. Thirty eight published studies were reviewed and ten assessment measures were examined: four were deemed appropriate for use in clinical trials, although with conditions; three were judged to be potentially appropriate, while three were considered not useful for clinical trials assessing anxiety. Despite recent advances, additional relevant, reliable and valid outcome measures are needed to evaluate treatments for anxiety in ASD. PMID:24158679

Higher order net-proton number cumulants dependence on the centrality definition and other spurious effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sombun, S.; Steinheimer, J.; Herold, C.; Limphirat, A.; Yan, Y.; Bleicher, M.

2018-02-01

We study the dependence of the normalized moments of the net-proton multiplicity distributions on the definition of centrality in relativistic nuclear collisions at a beam energy of \\sqrt{{s}{NN}}=7.7 {GeV}. Using the ultra relativistic quantum molecular dynamics model as event generator we find that the centrality definition has a large effect on the extracted cumulant ratios. Furthermore we find that the finite efficiency for the determination of the centrality introduces an additional systematic uncertainty. Finally, we quantitatively investigate the effects of event-pile up and other possible spurious effects which may change the measured proton number. We find that pile-up alone is not sufficient to describe the data and show that a random double counting of events, adding significantly to the measured proton number, affects mainly the higher order cumulants in most central collisions.

An Investigation of Agility Issues in Scrum Teams Using Agility Indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pikkarainen, Minna; Wang, Xiaofeng

Agile software development methods have emerged and become increasingly popular in recent years; yet the issues encountered by software development teams that strive to achieve agility using agile methods are yet to be explored systematically. Built upon a previous study that has established a set of indicators of agility, this study investigates what issues are manifested in software development teams using agile methods. It is focussed on Scrum teams particularly. In other words, the goal of the chapter is to evaluate Scrum teams using agility indicators and therefore to further validate previously presented agility indicators within the additional cases. A multiple case study research method is employed. The findings of the study reveal that the teams using Scrum do not necessarily achieve agility in terms of team autonomy, sharing, stability and embraced uncertainty. The possible reasons include previous organizational plan-driven culture, resistance towards the Scrum roles and changing resources.

Fast emulation of track reconstruction in the CMS simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komm, Matthias; CMS Collaboration

2017-10-01

Simulated samples of various physics processes are a key ingredient within analyses to unlock the physics behind LHC collision data. Samples with more and more statistics are required to keep up with the increasing amounts of recorded data. During sample generation, significant computing time is spent on the reconstruction of charged particle tracks from energy deposits which additionally scales with the pileup conditions. In CMS, the FastSimulation package is developed for providing a fast alternative to the standard simulation and reconstruction workflow. It employs various techniques to emulate track reconstruction effects in particle collision events. Several analysis groups in CMS are utilizing the package, in particular those requiring many samples to scan the parameter space of physics models (e.g. SUSY) or for the purpose of estimating systematic uncertainties. The strategies for and recent developments in this emulation are presented, including a novel, flexible implementation of tracking emulation while retaining a sufficient, tuneable accuracy.

A model-averaging method for assessing groundwater conceptual model uncertainty.

PubMed

Ye, Ming; Pohlmann, Karl F; Chapman, Jenny B; Pohll, Greg M; Reeves, Donald M

2010-01-01

This study evaluates alternative groundwater models with different recharge and geologic components at the northern Yucca Flat area of the Death Valley Regional Flow System (DVRFS), USA. Recharge over the DVRFS has been estimated using five methods, and five geological interpretations are available at the northern Yucca Flat area. Combining the recharge and geological components together with additional modeling components that represent other hydrogeological conditions yields a total of 25 groundwater flow models. As all the models are plausible given available data and information, evaluating model uncertainty becomes inevitable. On the other hand, hydraulic parameters (e.g., hydraulic conductivity) are uncertain in each model, giving rise to parametric uncertainty. Propagation of the uncertainty in the models and model parameters through groundwater modeling causes predictive uncertainty in model predictions (e.g., hydraulic head and flow). Parametric uncertainty within each model is assessed using Monte Carlo simulation, and model uncertainty is evaluated using the model averaging method. Two model-averaging techniques (on the basis of information criteria and GLUE) are discussed. This study shows that contribution of model uncertainty to predictive uncertainty is significantly larger than that of parametric uncertainty. For the recharge and geological components, uncertainty in the geological interpretations has more significant effect on model predictions than uncertainty in the recharge estimates. In addition, weighted residuals vary more for the different geological models than for different recharge models. Most of the calibrated observations are not important for discriminating between the alternative models, because their weighted residuals vary only slightly from one model to another.

Constraints on spin-dependent parton distributions at large x from global QCD analysis

DOE PAGES

Jimenez-Delgado, P.; Avakian, H.; Melnitchouk, W.

2014-09-28

This study investigate the behavior of spin-dependent parton distribution functions (PDFs) at large parton momentum fractions x in the context of global QCD analysis. We explore the constraints from existing deep-inelastic scattering data, and from theoretical expectations for the leading x → 1 behavior based on hard gluon exchange in perturbative QCD. Systematic uncertainties from the dependence of the PDFs on the choice of parametrization are studied by considering functional forms motivated by orbital angular momentum arguments. Finally, we quantify the reduction in the PDF uncertainties that may be expected from future high-x data from Jefferson Lab at 12 GeV.

Measurement of the absolute branching fraction of D + → $$\\bar{K}$$ 0 e + ν e via $$\\bar{K}$$0 → π0 π0

DOE PAGES

Ablikim, M.; Achasov, M. N.; Ai, X. C.; ...

2016-11-01

By analyzing 2.93 fb–1 data collected at the center-of-mass energy with the BESIII detector, we measure the absolute branching fraction of the semileptonic decay D+ →more » $$\\bar{K}$$0 e+νe to be Β(D + → $$\\bar{K}$$ 0 e +ν e) = (8.59 ± 0.14 ± 0.21)% using $$\\bar{K}$$ 0 → K 0 s → π 0π 0, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic. Finally, our result is consistent with previous measurements within uncertainties..« less

New Methods for B Decay Constants and Form Factors from Lattice NRQCD

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davies, Christine; Hughes, Ciaran; Monahan, Christopher

We determine the normalisation of scalar and pseudo scalar current operators made from NonRelativistic QCD (NRQCD) b quarks and Highly Improved Staggered (HISQ) light quarks through O(αs∧QCD/mb). We use matrix elements of these operators to extract B meson decay constants and form factors and compare to those obtained using the standard vector and axial vector operators. We work on MILC second-generation 2+1+1 gluon field configurations, including those with physical light quarks in the sea. This provides a test of systematic uncertainties in these calculations and we find agreement between the results to the 2% level of uncertainty previously quoted.