Landslide susceptibility modeling in a landslide prone area in Mazandarn Province, north of Iran: a comparison between GLM, GAM, MARS, and M-AHP methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Rossi, Mauro

2017-10-01

Landslides are identified as one of the most important natural hazards in many areas throughout the world. The essential purpose of this study is to compare general linear model (GLM), general additive model (GAM), multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), and modified analytical hierarchy process (M-AHP) models and assessment of their performances for landslide susceptibility modeling in the west of Mazandaran Province, Iran. First, landslides were identified by interpreting aerial photographs, and extensive field works. In total, 153 landslides were identified in the study area. Among these, 105 landslides were randomly selected as training data (i.e. used in the models training) and the remaining 48 (30 %) cases were used for the validation (i.e. used in the models validation). Afterward, based on a deep literature review on 220 scientific papers (period between 2005 and 2012), eleven conditioning factors including lithology, land use, distance from rivers, distance from roads, distance from faults, slope angle, slope aspect, altitude, topographic wetness index (TWI), plan curvature, and profile curvature were selected. The Certainty Factor (CF) model was used for managing uncertainty in rule-based systems and evaluation of the correlation between the dependent (landslides) and independent variables. Finally, the landslide susceptibility zonation was produced using GLM, GAM, MARS, and M-AHP models. For evaluation of the models, the area under the curve (AUC) method was used and both success and prediction rate curves were calculated. The evaluation of models for GLM, GAM, and MARS showed 90.50, 88.90, and 82.10 % for training data and 77.52, 70.49, and 78.17 % for validation data, respectively. Furthermore, The AUC value of the produced landslide susceptibility map using M-AHP showed a training value of 77.82 % and validation value of 82.77 % accuracy. Based on the overall assessments, the proposed approaches showed reasonable results for landslide susceptibility mapping in the study area. Moreover, results obtained showed that the M-AHP model performed slightly better than the MARS, GLM, and GAM models in prediction. These algorithms can be very useful for landslide susceptibility and hazard mapping and land use planning in regional scale.

Generalized additive models and Lucilia sericata growth: assessing confidence intervals and error rates in forensic entomology.

PubMed

Tarone, Aaron M; Foran, David R

2008-07-01

Forensic entomologists use blow fly development to estimate a postmortem interval. Although accurate, fly age estimates can be imprecise for older developmental stages and no standard means of assigning confidence intervals exists. Presented here is a method for modeling growth of the forensically important blow fly Lucilia sericata, using generalized additive models (GAMs). Eighteen GAMs were created to predict the extent of juvenile fly development, encompassing developmental stage, length, weight, strain, and temperature data, collected from 2559 individuals. All measures were informative, explaining up to 92.6% of the deviance in the data, though strain and temperature exerted negligible influences. Predictions made with an independent data set allowed for a subsequent examination of error. Estimates using length and developmental stage were within 5% of true development percent during the feeding portion of the larval life cycle, while predictions for postfeeding third instars were less precise, but within expected error.

A penalized framework for distributed lag non-linear models.

PubMed

Gasparrini, Antonio; Scheipl, Fabian; Armstrong, Ben; Kenward, Michael G

2017-09-01

Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) are a modelling tool for describing potentially non-linear and delayed dependencies. Here, we illustrate an extension of the DLNM framework through the use of penalized splines within generalized additive models (GAM). This extension offers built-in model selection procedures and the possibility of accommodating assumptions on the shape of the lag structure through specific penalties. In addition, this framework includes, as special cases, simpler models previously proposed for linear relationships (DLMs). Alternative versions of penalized DLNMs are compared with each other and with the standard unpenalized version in a simulation study. Results show that this penalized extension to the DLNM class provides greater flexibility and improved inferential properties. The framework exploits recent theoretical developments of GAMs and is implemented using efficient routines within freely available software. Real-data applications are illustrated through two reproducible examples in time series and survival analysis. © 2017 The Authors Biometrics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Biometric Society.

Near-road air pollutant concentrations of CO and PM 2.5: A comparison of MOBILE6.2/CALINE4 and generalized additive models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kai; Batterman, Stuart

2010-05-01

The contribution of vehicular traffic to air pollutant concentrations is often difficult to establish. This paper utilizes both time-series and simulation models to estimate vehicle contributions to pollutant levels near roadways. The time-series model used generalized additive models (GAMs) and fitted pollutant observations to traffic counts and meteorological variables. A one year period (2004) was analyzed on a seasonal basis using hourly measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) and particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter (PM 2.5) monitored near a major highway in Detroit, Michigan, along with hourly traffic counts and local meteorological data. Traffic counts showed statistically significant and approximately linear relationships with CO concentrations in fall, and piecewise linear relationships in spring, summer and winter. The same period was simulated using emission and dispersion models (Motor Vehicle Emissions Factor Model/MOBILE6.2; California Line Source Dispersion Model/CALINE4). CO emissions derived from the GAM were similar, on average, to those estimated by MOBILE6.2. The same analyses for PM 2.5 showed that GAM emission estimates were much higher (by 4-5 times) than the dispersion model results, and that the traffic-PM 2.5 relationship varied seasonally. This analysis suggests that the simulation model performed reasonably well for CO, but it significantly underestimated PM 2.5 concentrations, a likely result of underestimating PM 2.5 emission factors. Comparisons between statistical and simulation models can help identify model deficiencies and improve estimates of vehicle emissions and near-road air quality.

Spatial prediction of landslide susceptibility using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system combined with frequency ratio, generalized additive model, and support vector machine techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Wei; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Panahi, Mahdi; Kornejady, Aiding; Wang, Jiale; Xie, Xiaoshen; Cao, Shubo

2017-11-01

The spatial prediction of landslide susceptibility is an important prerequisite for the analysis of landslide hazards and risks in any area. This research uses three data mining techniques, such as an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system combined with frequency ratio (ANFIS-FR), a generalized additive model (GAM), and a support vector machine (SVM), for landslide susceptibility mapping in Hanyuan County, China. In the first step, in accordance with a review of the previous literature, twelve conditioning factors, including slope aspect, altitude, slope angle, topographic wetness index (TWI), plan curvature, profile curvature, distance to rivers, distance to faults, distance to roads, land use, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and lithology, were selected. In the second step, a collinearity test and correlation analysis between the conditioning factors and landslides were applied. In the third step, we used three advanced methods, namely, ANFIS-FR, GAM, and SVM, for landslide susceptibility modeling. Subsequently, the results of their accuracy were validated using a receiver operating characteristic curve. The results showed that all three models have good prediction capabilities, while the SVM model has the highest prediction rate of 0.875, followed by the ANFIS-FR and GAM models with prediction rates of 0.851 and 0.846, respectively. Thus, the landslide susceptibility maps produced in the study area can be applied for management of hazards and risks in landslide-prone Hanyuan County.

Spatial Assessment of Model Errors from Four Regression Techniques

Treesearch

Lianjun Zhang; Jeffrey H. Gove; Jeffrey H. Gove

2005-01-01

Fomst modelers have attempted to account for the spatial autocorrelations among trees in growth and yield models by applying alternative regression techniques such as linear mixed models (LMM), generalized additive models (GAM), and geographicalIy weighted regression (GWR). However, the model errors are commonly assessed using average errors across the entire study...

How many sightings to model rare marine species distributions

PubMed Central

Authier, Matthieu; Monestiez, Pascal; Ridoux, Vincent

2018-01-01

Despite large efforts, datasets with few sightings are often available for rare species of marine megafauna that typically live at low densities. This paucity of data makes modelling the habitat of these taxa particularly challenging. We tested the predictive performance of different types of species distribution models fitted to decreasing numbers of sightings. Generalised additive models (GAMs) with three different residual distributions and the presence only model MaxEnt were tested on two megafauna case studies differing in both the number of sightings and ecological niches. From a dolphin (277 sightings) and an auk (1,455 sightings) datasets, we simulated rarity with a sighting thinning protocol by random sampling (without replacement) of a decreasing fraction of sightings. Better prediction of the distribution of a rarely sighted species occupying a narrow habitat (auk dataset) was expected compared to the distribution of a rarely sighted species occupying a broad habitat (dolphin dataset). We used the original datasets to set up a baseline model and fitted additional models on fewer sightings but keeping effort constant. Model predictive performance was assessed with mean squared error and area under the curve. Predictions provided by the models fitted to the thinned-out datasets were better than a homogeneous spatial distribution down to a threshold of approximately 30 sightings for a GAM with a Tweedie distribution and approximately 130 sightings for the other models. Thinning the sighting data for the taxon with narrower habitats seemed to be less detrimental to model predictive performance than for the broader habitat taxon. To generate reliable habitat modelling predictions for rarely sighted marine predators, our results suggest (1) using GAMs with a Tweedie distribution with presence-absence data and (2) implementing, as a conservative empirical measure, at least 50 sightings in the models. PMID:29529097

A comparative assessment of GIS-based data mining models and a novel ensemble model in groundwater well potential mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naghibi, Seyed Amir; Moghaddam, Davood Davoodi; Kalantar, Bahareh; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Kisi, Ozgur

2017-05-01

In recent years, application of ensemble models has been increased tremendously in various types of natural hazard assessment such as landslides and floods. However, application of this kind of robust models in groundwater potential mapping is relatively new. This study applied four data mining algorithms including AdaBoost, Bagging, generalized additive model (GAM), and Naive Bayes (NB) models to map groundwater potential. Then, a novel frequency ratio data mining ensemble model (FREM) was introduced and evaluated. For this purpose, eleven groundwater conditioning factors (GCFs), including altitude, slope aspect, slope angle, plan curvature, stream power index (SPI), river density, distance from rivers, topographic wetness index (TWI), land use, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and lithology were mapped. About 281 well locations with high potential were selected. Wells were randomly partitioned into two classes for training the models (70% or 197) and validating them (30% or 84). AdaBoost, Bagging, GAM, and NB algorithms were employed to get groundwater potential maps (GPMs). The GPMs were categorized into potential classes using natural break method of classification scheme. In the next stage, frequency ratio (FR) value was calculated for the output of the four aforementioned models and were summed, and finally a GPM was produced using FREM. For validating the models, area under receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was calculated. The ROC curve for prediction dataset was 94.8, 93.5, 92.6, 92.0, and 84.4% for FREM, Bagging, AdaBoost, GAM, and NB models, respectively. The results indicated that FREM had the best performance among all the models. The better performance of the FREM model could be related to reduction of over fitting and possible errors. Other models such as AdaBoost, Bagging, GAM, and NB also produced acceptable performance in groundwater modelling. The GPMs produced in the current study may facilitate groundwater exploitation by determining high and very high groundwater potential zones.

Predictive modeling of deep-sea fish distribution in the Azores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parra, Hugo E.; Pham, Christopher K.; Menezes, Gui M.; Rosa, Alexandra; Tempera, Fernando; Morato, Telmo

2017-11-01

Understanding the link between fish and their habitat is essential for an ecosystem approach to fisheries management. However, determining such relationship is challenging, especially for deep-sea species. In this study, we applied generalized additive models (GAMs) to relate presence-absence and relative abundance data of eight economically-important fish species to environmental variables (depth, slope, aspect, substrate type, bottom temperature, salinity and oxygen saturation). We combined 13 years of catch data collected from systematic longline surveys performed across the region. Overall, presence-absence GAMs performed better than abundance models and predictions made for the observed data successfully predicted the occurrence of the eight deep-sea fish species. Depth was the most influential predictor of all fish species occurrence and abundance distributions, whereas other factors were found to be significant for some species but did not show such a clear influence. Our results predicted that despite the extensive Azores EEZ, the habitats available for the studied deep-sea fish species are highly limited and patchy, restricted to seamounts slopes and summits, offshore banks and island slopes. Despite some identified limitations, our GAMs provide an improved knowledge of the spatial distribution of these commercially important fish species in the region.

Further advances in predicting species distributions

Treesearch

Gretchen G. Moisen; Thomas C. Edwards; Patrick E. Osborne

2006-01-01

In 2001, a workshop focused on the use of generalized linear models (GLM: McCullagh and Nelder, 1989) and generalized additive models (GAM: Hastie and Tibshirani, 1986, 1990) for predicting species distributions was held in Riederalp, Switzerland. This topic led to the publication of special issues in Ecological Modelling (Guisan et al., 2002) and Biodiversity and...

INTERANNUAL VARIATION IN METEOROLOGICALLY ADJUSTED OZONE LEVELS IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES: A COMPARISON OF TWO APPROACHED

EPA Science Inventory

Assessing the influence of abatement efforts and other human activities on ozone levels is complicated by the atmosphere's changeable nature. Two statistical methods, the dynamic linear model(DLM) and the generalized additive model (GAM), are used to estimate ozone trends in the...

Limitations of the widely used GAM42a and BET42a probes targeting bacteria in the Gammaproteobacteria radiation.

PubMed

Yeates, Christine; Saunders, Aaron M; Crocetti, Gregory R; Blackall, Linda L

2003-05-01

The 23S rRNA-targeted probes GAM42a and BET42a provided equivocal results with the uncultured gammaproteobacterium 'Candidatus Competibacter phosphatis' where some cells bound GAM42a and other cells bound BET42a in fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) experiments. Probes GAM42a and BET42a span positions 1027-1043 in the 23S rRNA and differ from each other by one nucleotide at position 1033. Clone libraries were prepared from PCR products spanning the 16S rRNA genes, intergenic spacer region and 23S rRNA genes from two mixed cultures enriched in 'Candidatus C. phosphatis'. With individual clone inserts, the 16S rDNA portion was used to confirm the source organism as 'Candidatus C. phosphatis' and the 23S rDNA portion was used to determine the sequence of the GAM42a/BET42a probe target region. Of the 19 clones sequenced, 8 had the GAM42a probe target (T at position 1033) and 11 had G at position 1033, the only mismatch with GAM42a. However, none of the clones had the BET42a probe target (A at 1033). Non-canonical base-pairing between the 23S rRNA of 'Candidatus C. phosphatis' with G at position 1033 and GAM42a (G-A) or BET42a (G-T) is likely to explain the probing anomalies. A probe (GAM42_C1033) was optimized for use in FISH, targeting cells with G at position 1033, and was found to highlight not only some 'Candidatus C. phosphatis' cells, but also other bacteria. This demonstrates that there are bacteria in addition to 'Candidatus C. phosphatis' with the GAM42_C1033 probe target and not the BET42a or GAM42a probe target.

Vertical Launch System Loadout Planner

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-01

United States Navy USS United States’ Ship VBA Visual Basic for Applications VLP VLS Loadout Planner VLS Vertical Launch System...with 32 gigabytes of random access memory and eight processors, General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) CPLEX version 24 (GAMS, 2015) solves this...problem in ten minutes to an integer tolerance of 10%. The GAMS interpreter and CPLEX solver require 75 Megabytes of random access memory for this

The General Aggression Model.

PubMed

Allen, Johnie J; Anderson, Craig A; Bushman, Brad J

2018-02-01

The General Aggression Model (GAM) is a comprehensive, integrative, framework for understanding aggression. It considers the role of social, cognitive, personality, developmental, and biological factors on aggression. Proximate processes of GAM detail how person and situation factors influence cognitions, feelings, and arousal, which in turn affect appraisal and decision processes, which in turn influence aggressive or nonaggressive behavioral outcomes. Each cycle of the proximate processes serves as a learning trial that affects the development and accessibility of aggressive knowledge structures. Distal processes of GAM detail how biological and persistent environmental factors can influence personality through changes in knowledge structures. GAM has been applied to understand aggression in many contexts including media violence effects, domestic violence, intergroup violence, temperature effects, pain effects, and the effects of global climate change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Geodesic acoustic modes in noncircular cross section tokamaks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sorokina, E. A., E-mail: sorokina.ekaterina@gmail.com; Lakhin, V. P.; Konovaltseva, L. V.

2017-03-15

The influence of the shape of the plasma cross section on the continuous spectrum of geodesic acoustic modes (GAMs) in a tokamak is analyzed in the framework of the MHD model. An expression for the frequency of a local GAM for a model noncircular cross section plasma equilibrium is derived. Amendments to the oscillation frequency due to the plasma elongation and triangularity and finite tokamak aspect ratio are calculated. It is shown that the main factor affecting the GAM spectrum is the plasma elongation, resulting in a significant decrease in the mode frequency.

The Use of Amino Sugars by Bacillus subtilis: Presence of a Unique Operon for the Catabolism of Glucosamine

PubMed Central

Gaugué, Isabelle; Oberto, Jacques; Putzer, Harald; Plumbridge, Jacqueline

2013-01-01

B. subtilis grows more rapidly using the amino sugar glucosamine as carbon source, than with N-acetylglucosamine. Genes for the transport and metabolism of N-acetylglucosamine (nagP and nagAB) are found in all the sequenced Bacilli (except Anoxybacillus flavithermus). In B. subtilis there is an additional operon (gamAP) encoding second copies of genes for the transport and catabolism of glucosamine. We have developed a method to make multiple deletion mutations in B. subtilis employing an excisable spectinomycin resistance cassette. Using this method we have analysed the contribution of the different genes of the nag and gam operons for their role in utilization of glucosamine and N-acetylglucosamine. Faster growth on glucosamine is due to the presence of the gamAP operon, which is strongly induced by glucosamine. Although the gamA and nagB genes encode isozymes of GlcN6P deaminase, catabolism of N-acetylglucosamine relies mostly upon the gamA gene product. The genes for use of N-acetylglucosamine, nagAB and nagP, are repressed by YvoA (NagR), a GntR family regulator, whose gene is part of the nagAB yvoA(nagR) operon. The gamAP operon is repressed by YbgA, another GntR family repressor, whose gene is expressed divergently from gamAP. The nagAB yvoA synton is found throughout the Bacilli and most firmicutes. On the other hand the ybgA-gamAP synton, which includes the ybgB gene for a small protein of unknown provenance, is only found in B. subtilis (and a few very close relatives). The origin of ybgBA-gamAP grouping is unknown but synteny analysis suggests lateral transfer from an unidentified donor. The presence of gamAP has enabled B. subtilis to efficiently use glucosamine as carbon source. PMID:23667565

Cost-of-illness studies based on massive data: a prevalence-based, top-down regression approach.

PubMed

Stollenwerk, Björn; Welchowski, Thomas; Vogl, Matthias; Stock, Stephanie

2016-04-01

Despite the increasing availability of routine data, no analysis method has yet been presented for cost-of-illness (COI) studies based on massive data. We aim, first, to present such a method and, second, to assess the relevance of the associated gain in numerical efficiency. We propose a prevalence-based, top-down regression approach consisting of five steps: aggregating the data; fitting a generalized additive model (GAM); predicting costs via the fitted GAM; comparing predicted costs between prevalent and non-prevalent subjects; and quantifying the stochastic uncertainty via error propagation. To demonstrate the method, it was applied to aggregated data in the context of chronic lung disease to German sickness funds data (from 1999), covering over 7.3 million insured. To assess the gain in numerical efficiency, the computational time of the innovative approach has been compared with corresponding GAMs applied to simulated individual-level data. Furthermore, the probability of model failure was modeled via logistic regression. Applying the innovative method was reasonably fast (19 min). In contrast, regarding patient-level data, computational time increased disproportionately by sample size. Furthermore, using patient-level data was accompanied by a substantial risk of model failure (about 80 % for 6 million subjects). The gain in computational efficiency of the innovative COI method seems to be of practical relevance. Furthermore, it may yield more precise cost estimates.

General Algebraic Modeling System Tutorial | High-Performance Computing |

Science.gov Websites

power generation from two different fuels. The goal is to minimize the cost for one of the fuels while Here's a basic tutorial for modeling optimization problems with the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). Overview The GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System) package is essentially a compiler for a

Earth system component responses under LGM boundary conditions in HadGAM2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopcroft, Peter; Valdes, Paul; Gedney, Nicola

2013-04-01

In this work we use the atmospheric and terrestrial components of the Earth System model HadGEM2-ES to explore the sensitivity of vegetation, the mineral dust cycle and wetland methane emissions under boundary conditions relevant to the last glacial maximum (LGM) relative to the pre-industrial (PI). For the LGM we configured HadGAM2 with LGM greenhouse gas concentrations, 21kyr ice sheets, orography and sea level and 21kyr orbital parameters. For the PI and LGM simulations HadGAM2 was forced with sea surface temperatures and sea-ice cover from equivalent coupled atmosphere-ocean HadCM3 simulations. We have also optionally prescribed vegetation distributions simulated with HadCM3M2 which employs the TRIFFID vegetation model (this model is also used within HadGAM2). In HadGAM2 the LGM-PI temperature change is generally similar to that found in HadCM3, though it is found to be more extreme over Asia, where feedbacks from snow cover and changes in vegetation enhance the local signal. The dust model is sensitive to changes in the bare soil fraction, with particularly large emissions changes over South America and Australia. The globally averaged radiative forcing from mineral dust changes is consistent with the higher end of the range found in previous studies, ranging from -0.4Wm-2 for no vegetation change to -1.7Wm-2 with prescribed HadCM3M2 vegetation distributions. The HadGEM2 methane emission model is used both online and offline in a number of different configurations in order to address uncertainty in the model formulation. A subset of the model versions considered suggests a completely source driven change in atmospheric CH4 at the LGM relative to the PI, consistent with recent modelling studies of the atmospheric composition at the LGM. Future work will consider the sensitivity of these HadGAM2 Earth System components to SST and sea-ice area perturbations.

Time Scale Effects in Acute Association between Air-Pollution and Mortality

EPA Science Inventory

We used wavelet analysis and generalized additive models (GAM) to study timescale effects in the acute association between mortality and air-pollution. Daily averages of measured NO₂ concentrations in the metropolitan Paris area are used as indicators of human exposure...

Using the Gurobi Solvers on the Peregrine System | High-Performance

Science.gov Websites

Peregrine System Gurobi Optimizer is a suite of solvers for mathematical programming. It is licensed for ('GRB_MATLAB_PATH') >> path(path,grb) Gurobi and GAMS GAMS is a high-level modeling system for mathematical

Statistical Modeling of Fire Occurrence Using Data from the Tōhoku, Japan Earthquake and Tsunami.

PubMed

Anderson, Dana; Davidson, Rachel A; Himoto, Keisuke; Scawthorn, Charles

2016-02-01

In this article, we develop statistical models to predict the number and geographic distribution of fires caused by earthquake ground motion and tsunami inundation in Japan. Using new, uniquely large, and consistent data sets from the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, we fitted three types of models-generalized linear models (GLMs), generalized additive models (GAMs), and boosted regression trees (BRTs). This is the first time the latter two have been used in this application. A simple conceptual framework guided identification of candidate covariates. Models were then compared based on their out-of-sample predictive power, goodness of fit to the data, ease of implementation, and relative importance of the framework concepts. For the ground motion data set, we recommend a Poisson GAM; for the tsunami data set, a negative binomial (NB) GLM or NB GAM. The best models generate out-of-sample predictions of the total number of ignitions in the region within one or two. Prefecture-level prediction errors average approximately three. All models demonstrate predictive power far superior to four from the literature that were also tested. A nonlinear relationship is apparent between ignitions and ground motion, so for GLMs, which assume a linear response-covariate relationship, instrumental intensity was the preferred ground motion covariate because it captures part of that nonlinearity. Measures of commercial exposure were preferred over measures of residential exposure for both ground motion and tsunami ignition models. This may vary in other regions, but nevertheless highlights the value of testing alternative measures for each concept. Models with the best predictive power included two or three covariates. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Does transport time help explain the high trauma mortality rates in rural areas? New and traditional predictors assessed by new and traditional statistical methods

PubMed Central

Røislien, Jo; Lossius, Hans Morten; Kristiansen, Thomas

2015-01-01

Background Trauma is a leading global cause of death. Trauma mortality rates are higher in rural areas, constituting a challenge for quality and equality in trauma care. The aim of the study was to explore population density and transport time to hospital care as possible predictors of geographical differences in mortality rates, and to what extent choice of statistical method might affect the analytical results and accompanying clinical conclusions. Methods Using data from the Norwegian Cause of Death registry, deaths from external causes 1998–2007 were analysed. Norway consists of 434 municipalities, and municipality population density and travel time to hospital care were entered as predictors of municipality mortality rates in univariate and multiple regression models of increasing model complexity. We fitted linear regression models with continuous and categorised predictors, as well as piecewise linear and generalised additive models (GAMs). Models were compared using Akaike's information criterion (AIC). Results Population density was an independent predictor of trauma mortality rates, while the contribution of transport time to hospital care was highly dependent on choice of statistical model. A multiple GAM or piecewise linear model was superior, and similar, in terms of AIC. However, while transport time was statistically significant in multiple models with piecewise linear or categorised predictors, it was not in GAM or standard linear regression. Conclusions Population density is an independent predictor of trauma mortality rates. The added explanatory value of transport time to hospital care is marginal and model-dependent, highlighting the importance of exploring several statistical models when studying complex associations in observational data. PMID:25972600

Assessment selection in human-automation interaction studies: The Failure-GAM2E and review of assessment methods for highly automated driving.

PubMed

Grane, Camilla

2018-01-01

Highly automated driving will change driver's behavioural patterns. Traditional methods used for assessing manual driving will only be applicable for the parts of human-automation interaction where the driver intervenes such as in hand-over and take-over situations. Therefore, driver behaviour assessment will need to adapt to the new driving scenarios. This paper aims at simplifying the process of selecting appropriate assessment methods. Thirty-five papers were reviewed to examine potential and relevant methods. The review showed that many studies still relies on traditional driving assessment methods. A new method, the Failure-GAM 2 E model, with purpose to aid assessment selection when planning a study, is proposed and exemplified in the paper. Failure-GAM 2 E includes a systematic step-by-step procedure defining the situation, failures (Failure), goals (G), actions (A), subjective methods (M), objective methods (M) and equipment (E). The use of Failure-GAM 2 E in a study example resulted in a well-reasoned assessment plan, a new way of measuring trust through feet movements and a proposed Optimal Risk Management Model. Failure-GAM 2 E and the Optimal Risk Management Model are believed to support the planning process for research studies in the field of human-automation interaction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting tree species presence and basal area in Utah: A comparison of stochastic gradient boosting, generalized additive models, and tree-based methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moisen, Gretchen G.; Freeman, E.A.; Blackard, J.A.; Frescino, T.S.; Zimmermann, N.E.; Edwards, T.C.

2006-01-01

Many efforts are underway to produce broad-scale forest attribute maps by modelling forest class and structure variables collected in forest inventories as functions of satellite-based and biophysical information. Typically, variants of classification and regression trees implemented in Rulequest's?? See5 and Cubist (for binary and continuous responses, respectively) are the tools of choice in many of these applications. These tools are widely used in large remote sensing applications, but are not easily interpretable, do not have ties with survey estimation methods, and use proprietary unpublished algorithms. Consequently, three alternative modelling techniques were compared for mapping presence and basal area of 13 species located in the mountain ranges of Utah, USA. The modelling techniques compared included the widely used See5/Cubist, generalized additive models (GAMs), and stochastic gradient boosting (SGB). Model performance was evaluated using independent test data sets. Evaluation criteria for mapping species presence included specificity, sensitivity, Kappa, and area under the curve (AUC). Evaluation criteria for the continuous basal area variables included correlation and relative mean squared error. For predicting species presence (setting thresholds to maximize Kappa), SGB had higher values for the majority of the species for specificity and Kappa, while GAMs had higher values for the majority of the species for sensitivity. In evaluating resultant AUC values, GAM and/or SGB models had significantly better results than the See5 models where significant differences could be detected between models. For nine out of 13 species, basal area prediction results for all modelling techniques were poor (correlations less than 0.5 and relative mean squared errors greater than 0.8), but SGB provided the most stable predictions in these instances. SGB and Cubist performed equally well for modelling basal area for three species with moderate prediction success, while all three modelling tools produced comparably good predictions (correlation of 0.68 and relative mean squared error of 0.56) for one species. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk Map of Cholera Infection for Vaccine Deployment: The Eastern Kolkata Case

PubMed Central

You, Young Ae; Ali, Mohammad; Kanungo, Suman; Sah, Binod; Manna, Byomkesh; Puri, Mahesh; Nair, G. Balakrish; Bhattacharya, Sujit Kumar; Convertino, Matteo; Deen, Jacqueline L.; Lopez, Anna Lena; Wierzba, Thomas F.; Clemens, John; Sur, Dipika

2013-01-01

Background Despite advancement of our knowledge, cholera remains a public health concern. During March-April 2010, a large cholera outbreak afflicted the eastern part of Kolkata, India. The quantification of importance of socio-environmental factors in the risk of cholera, and the calculation of the risk is fundamental for deploying vaccination strategies. Here we investigate socio-environmental characteristics between high and low risk areas as well as the potential impact of vaccination on the spatial occurrence of the disease. Methods and Findings The study area comprised three wards of Kolkata Municipal Corporation. A mass cholera vaccination campaign was conducted in mid-2006 as the part of a clinical trial. Cholera cases and data of the trial to identify high risk areas for cholera were analyzed. We used a generalized additive model (GAM) to detect risk areas, and to evaluate the importance of socio-environmental characteristics between high and low risk areas. During the one-year pre-vaccination and two-year post-vaccination periods, 95 and 183 cholera cases were detected in 111,882 and 121,827 study participants, respectively. The GAM model predicts that high risk areas in the west part of the study area where the outbreak largely occurred. High risk areas in both periods were characterized by poor people, use of unsafe water, and proximity to canals used as the main drainage for rain and waste water. Cholera vaccine uptake was significantly lower in the high risk areas compared to low risk areas. Conclusion The study shows that even a parsimonious model like GAM predicts high risk areas where cholera outbreaks largely occurred. This is useful for indicating where interventions would be effective in controlling the disease risk. Data showed that vaccination decreased the risk of infection. Overall, the GAM-based risk map is useful for policymakers, especially those from countries where cholera remains to be endemic with periodic outbreaks. PMID:23936491

A field test of three LQAS designs to assess the prevalence of acute malnutrition.

PubMed

Deitchler, Megan; Valadez, Joseph J; Egge, Kari; Fernandez, Soledad; Hennigan, Mary

2007-08-01

The conventional method for assessing the prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) in emergency settings is the 30 x 30 cluster-survey. This study describes alternative approaches: three Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) designs to assess GAM. The LQAS designs were field-tested and their results compared with those from a 30 x 30 cluster-survey. Computer simulations confirmed that small clusters instead of a simple random sample could be used for LQAS assessments of GAM. Three LQAS designs were developed (33 x 6, 67 x 3, Sequential design) to assess GAM thresholds of 10, 15 and 20%. The designs were field-tested simultaneously with a 30 x 30 cluster-survey in Siraro, Ethiopia during June 2003. Using a nested study design, anthropometric, morbidity and vaccination data were collected on all children 6-59 months in sampled households. Hypothesis tests about GAM thresholds were conducted for each LQAS design. Point estimates were obtained for the 30 x 30 cluster-survey and the 33 x 6 and 67 x 3 LQAS designs. Hypothesis tests showed GAM as <10% for the 33 x 6 design and GAM as > or =10% for the 67 x 3 and Sequential designs. Point estimates for the 33 x 6 and 67 x 3 designs were similar to those of the 30 x 30 cluster-survey for GAM (6.7%, CI = 3.2-10.2%; 8.2%, CI = 4.3-12.1%, 7.4%, CI = 4.8-9.9%) and all other indicators. The CIs for the LQAS designs were only slightly wider than the CIs for the 30 x 30 cluster-survey; yet the LQAS designs required substantially less time to administer. The LQAS designs provide statistically appropriate alternatives to the more time-consuming 30 x 30 cluster-survey. However, additional field-testing is needed using independent samples rather than a nested study design.

Physics of GAM-initiated L-H transition in a tokamak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Askinazi, L. G.; Belokurov, A. A.; Bulanin, V. V.; Gurchenko, A. D.; Gusakov, E. Z.; Kiviniemi, T. P.; Lebedev, S. V.; Kornev, V. A.; Korpilo, T.; Krikunov, S. V.; Leerink, S.; Machielsen, M.; Niskala, P.; Petrov, A. V.; Tukachinsky, A. S.; Yashin, A. Yu; Zhubr, N. A.

2017-01-01

Based on experimental observations using the TUMAN-3M and FT-2 tokamaks, and the results of gyrokinetic modeling of the interplay between turbulence and the geodesic acoustic mode (GAM) in these installations, a simple model is proposed for the analysis of the conditions required for L-H transition triggering by a burst of radial electric field oscillations in a tokamak. In the framework of this model, one-dimensional density evolution is considered to be governed by an anomalous diffusion coefficient dependent on radial electric field shear. The radial electric field is taken as the sum of the oscillating term and the quasi-stationary one determined by density and ion temperature gradients through a neoclassical formula. If the oscillating field parameters (amplitude, frequency, etc) are properly adjusted, a transport barrier forms at the plasma periphery and sustains after the oscillations are switched off, manifesting a transition into the high confinement mode with a strong inhomogeneous radial electric field and suppressed transport at the plasma edge. The electric field oscillation parameters required for L-H transition triggering are compared with the GAM parameters observed at the TUMAN-3M (in the discharges with ohmic L-H transition) and FT-2 tokamaks (where no clear L-H transition was observed). It is concluded based on this comparison that the GAM may act as a trigger for the L-H transition, provided that certain conditions for GAM oscillation and tokamak discharge are met.

Excystation of Eimeria tenella Sporozoites Impaired by Antibody Recognizing Gametocyte/Oocyst Antigens GAM22 and GAM56▿

PubMed Central

Krücken, Jürgen; Hosse, Ralf J.; Mouafo, Aimdip N.; Entzeroth, Rolf; Bierbaum, Stefan; Marinovski, Predrag; Hain, Karolina; Greif, Gisela; Wunderlich, Frank

2008-01-01

Eimeria tenella is the causative agent of coccidiosis in poultry. Infection of the chicken intestine begins with ingestion of sporulated oocysts releasing sporocysts, which in turn release invasive sporozoites. The monoclonal antibody E2E5 recognizes wall-forming body type II (WFBII) in gametocytes and the WFBII-derived inner wall of oocysts. Here we describe that this antibody also binds to the stieda body of sporocysts and significantly impairs in vitro excystation of sporozoites. Using affinity chromatography and protein sequence analysis, E2E5 is shown to recognize EtGAM56, the E. tenella ortholog of the Eimeria maxima gametocyte-specific GAM56 protein. In addition, this antibody was used to screen a genomic phage display library presenting E. tenella antigens as fusion proteins with the gene VIII product on the surfaces of phagemid particles and identified the novel 22-kDa histidine- and proline-rich protein EtGAM22. The Etgam22 mRNA is expressed predominantly at the gametocyte stage, as detected by Northern blotting. Southern blot analysis in combination with data from the E. tenella genome project revealed that Etgam22 is an intronless multicopy gene, with approximately 12 to 22 copies in head-to-tail arrangement. Conspicuously, Etgam56 is also intronless and is localized adjacent to another gam56-like gene, Etgam59. Our data suggest that amplification is common for genes encoding oocyst wall proteins. PMID:18083827

Excystation of Eimeria tenella sporozoites impaired by antibody recognizing gametocyte/oocyst antigens GAM22 and GAM56.

PubMed

Krücken, Jürgen; Hosse, Ralf J; Mouafo, Aimdip N; Entzeroth, Rolf; Bierbaum, Stefan; Marinovski, Predrag; Hain, Karolina; Greif, Gisela; Wunderlich, Frank

2008-02-01

Eimeria tenella is the causative agent of coccidiosis in poultry. Infection of the chicken intestine begins with ingestion of sporulated oocysts releasing sporocysts, which in turn release invasive sporozoites. The monoclonal antibody E2E5 recognizes wall-forming body type II (WFBII) in gametocytes and the WFBII-derived inner wall of oocysts. Here we describe that this antibody also binds to the stieda body of sporocysts and significantly impairs in vitro excystation of sporozoites. Using affinity chromatography and protein sequence analysis, E2E5 is shown to recognize EtGAM56, the E. tenella ortholog of the Eimeria maxima gametocyte-specific GAM56 protein. In addition, this antibody was used to screen a genomic phage display library presenting E. tenella antigens as fusion proteins with the gene VIII product on the surfaces of phagemid particles and identified the novel 22-kDa histidine- and proline-rich protein EtGAM22. The Etgam22 mRNA is expressed predominantly at the gametocyte stage, as detected by Northern blotting. Southern blot analysis in combination with data from the E. tenella genome project revealed that Etgam22 is an intronless multicopy gene, with approximately 12 to 22 copies in head-to-tail arrangement. Conspicuously, Etgam56 is also intronless and is localized adjacent to another gam56-like gene, Etgam59. Our data suggest that amplification is common for genes encoding oocyst wall proteins.

Applying multibeam sonar and mathematical modeling for mapping seabed substrate and biota of offshore shallows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herkül, Kristjan; Peterson, Anneliis; Paekivi, Sander

2017-06-01

Both basic science and marine spatial planning are in a need of high resolution spatially continuous data on seabed habitats and biota. As conventional point-wise sampling is unable to cover large spatial extents in high detail, it must be supplemented with remote sensing and modeling in order to fulfill the scientific and management needs. The combined use of in situ sampling, sonar scanning, and mathematical modeling is becoming the main method for mapping both abiotic and biotic seabed features. Further development and testing of the methods in varying locations and environmental settings is essential for moving towards unified and generally accepted methodology. To fill the relevant research gap in the Baltic Sea, we used multibeam sonar and mathematical modeling methods - generalized additive models (GAM) and random forest (RF) - together with underwater video to map seabed substrate and epibenthos of offshore shallows. In addition to testing the general applicability of the proposed complex of techniques, the predictive power of different sonar-based variables and modeling algorithms were tested. Mean depth, followed by mean backscatter, were the most influential variables in most of the models. Generally, mean values of sonar-based variables had higher predictive power than their standard deviations. The predictive accuracy of RF was higher than that of GAM. To conclude, we found the method to be feasible and with predictive accuracy similar to previous studies of sonar-based mapping.

Dynamics of kinetic geodesic-acoustic modes and the radial electric field in tokamak neoclassical plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, X. Q.; Belli, E.; Bodi, K.; Candy, J.; Chang, C. S.; Cohen, R. H.; Colella, P.; Dimits, A. M.; Dorr, M. R.; Gao, Z.; Hittinger, J. A.; Ko, S.; Krasheninnikov, S.; McKee, G. R.; Nevins, W. M.; Rognlien, T. D.; Snyder, P. B.; Suh, J.; Umansky, M. V.

2009-06-01

We present edge gyrokinetic simulations of tokamak plasmas using the fully non-linear (full-f) continuum code TEMPEST. A non-linear Boltzmann model is used for the electrons. The electric field is obtained by solving the 2D gyrokinetic Poisson equation. We demonstrate the following. (1) High harmonic resonances (n > 2) significantly enhance geodesic-acoustic mode (GAM) damping at high q (tokamak safety factor), and are necessary to explain the damping observed in our TEMPEST q-scans and consistent with the experimental measurements of the scaling of the GAM amplitude with edge q95 in the absence of obvious evidence that there is a strong q-dependence of the turbulent drive and damping of the GAM. (2) The kinetic GAM exists in the edge for steep density and temperature gradients in the form of outgoing waves, its radial scale is set by the ion temperature profile, and ion temperature inhomogeneity is necessary for GAM radial propagation. (3) The development of the neoclassical electric field evolves through different phases of relaxation, including GAMs, their radial propagation and their long-time collisional decay. (4) Natural consequences of orbits in the pedestal and scrape-off layer region in divertor geometry are substantial non-Maxwellian ion distributions and parallel flow characteristics qualitatively like those observed in experiments.

Fully Nonlinear Edge Gyrokinetic Simulations of Kinetic Geodesic-Acoustic Modes and Boundary Flows

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, X Q; Belli, E; Bodi, K

We present edge gyrokinetic neoclassical simulations of tokamak plasmas using the fully nonlinear (full-f) continuum code TEMPEST. A nonlinear Boltzmann model is used for the electrons. The electric field is obtained by solving the 2D gyrokinetic Poisson Equation. We demonstrate the following: (1) High harmonic resonances (n > 2) significantly enhance geodesic-acoustic mode (GAM) damping at high-q (tokamak safety factor), and are necessary to explain both the damping observed in our TEMPEST q-scans and experimental measurements of the scaling of the GAM amplitude with edge q{sub 95} in the absence of obvious evidence that there is a strong q dependencemore » of the turbulent drive and damping of the GAM. (2) The kinetic GAM exists in the edge for steep density and temperature gradients in the form of outgoing waves, its radial scale is set by the ion temperature profile, and ion temperature inhomogeneity is necessary for GAM radial propagation. (3) The development of the neoclassical electric field evolves through different phases of relaxation, including GAMs, their radial propagation, and their long-time collisional decay. (4) Natural consequences of orbits in the pedestal and scrape-off layer region in divertor geometry are substantial non-Maxwellian ion distributions and flow characteristics qualitatively like those observed in experiments.« less

A statistical model for monitoring shell disease in inshore lobster fisheries: A case study in Long Island Sound

PubMed Central

Chen, Yong

2017-01-01

The expansion of shell disease is an emerging threat to the inshore lobster fisheries in the northeastern United States. The development of models to improve the efficiency and precision of existing monitoring programs is advocated as an important step in mitigating its harmful effects. The objective of this study is to construct a statistical model that could enhance the existing monitoring effort through (1) identification of potential disease-associated abiotic and biotic factors, and (2) estimation of spatial variation in disease prevalence in the lobster fishery. A delta-generalized additive modeling (GAM) approach was applied using bottom trawl survey data collected from 2001–2013 in Long Island Sound, a tidal estuary between New York and Connecticut states. Spatial distribution of shell disease prevalence was found to be strongly influenced by the interactive effects of latitude and longitude, possibly indicative of a geographic origin of shell disease. Bottom temperature, bottom salinity, and depth were also important factors affecting the spatial variability in shell disease prevalence. The delta-GAM projected high disease prevalence in non-surveyed locations. Additionally, a potential spatial discrepancy was found between modeled disease hotspots and survey-based gravity centers of disease prevalence. This study provides a modeling framework to enhance research, monitoring and management of emerging and continuing marine disease threats. PMID:28196150

Genetic control of enhanced mutability of mitochondrial DNA and gamma-ray sensitivity in Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

PubMed Central

Foury, F; Goffeau, A

1979-01-01

Five nuclear mutants enhancing the spontaneous mutation rate of mtDNA have been isolated in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. These mutators fall into five complementation groups and are located at five genetic loci different from rad50 to rad57 loci. Three mutants (gam1, gam2, and gam4), insensitive or weakly sensitive to gamma-rays, exhibit increased frequency of spontaneous production of mutants with large deletions of the mtDNA (p-) and of all tested mitochondrial drug-resistant mutants. Two other mutants (gam3 and gam5), highly sensitive to gamma-rays, increase only the mutation rate of particular alleles of the mtDNA. The mutant gam5 enhances only the production of p- and erythromycin-resistant clones. The mutant gam3 exhibits an enhanced rate of oligomycin-resistant clones as well as a collateral increase of nuclear mutability. The existence of gam3 and gam5 mutants indicates that at least two common steps control both nuclear DNA repair and the mutability of particular alleles of the mtDNA. However, the general spontaneous mutability of the mtDNA includes at least three steps not involved in the repair of nuclear DNA, as revealed by the gam1, gam2, and gam4 mutations. PMID:392521

Expression and in vitro functional analyses of recombinant Gam1 protein

PubMed Central

Avila, Gustavo A.; Ramirez, Daniel H.; Hildenbrand, Zacariah L.; Jacquez, Pedro; Chiocca, Susanna; Sun, Jianjun; Rosas-Acosta, German; Xiao, Chuan

2014-01-01

Gam1, an early gene product of an avian adenovirus, is essential for viral replication. Gam1 is the first viral protein found to globally inhibit cellular SUMOylation, a critical posttranslational modification that alters the function and cellular localization of proteins. The interaction details at the interface between Gam1 and its cellular targets remain unclear due to the lack of structural information. Although Gam1 has been previously characterized, the purity of the protein was not suitable for structural investigations. In the present study, the gene of Gam1 was cloned and expressed in various bacterial expression systems to obtain pure and soluble recombinant Gam1 protein for in vitro functional and structural studies. While Gam1 was insoluble in most expression systems tested, it became soluble when it was expressed as a fusion protein with trigger factor (TF), a ribosome associated bacterial chaperone, under the control of a cold shock promoter. Careful optimization indicates that both low temperature induction and the chaperone function of TF play critical roles in increasing Gam1 solubility. Soluble Gam1 was purified to homogeneity through sequential chromatography techniques. Monomeric Gam1 was obtained via size exclusion chromatography and analyzed by dynamic light scattering. The SUMOylation inhibitory function of the purified Gam1 was confirmed in an in vitro assay. These results have built the foundation for further structural investigations that will broaden our understanding of Gam1’s roles in viral replication. PMID:25450237

Expression and in vitro functional analyses of recombinant Gam1 protein.

PubMed

Avila, Gustavo A; Ramirez, Daniel H; Hildenbrand, Zacariah L; Jacquez, Pedro; Chiocca, Susanna; Sun, Jianjun; Rosas-Acosta, German; Xiao, Chuan

2015-01-01

Gam1, an early gene product of an avian adenovirus, is essential for viral replication. Gam1 is the first viral protein found to globally inhibit cellular SUMOylation, a critical posttranslational modification that alters the function and cellular localization of proteins. The interaction details at the interface between Gam1 and its cellular targets remain unclear due to the lack of structural information. Although Gam1 has been previously characterized, the purity of the protein was not suitable for structural investigations. In the present study, the gene of Gam1 was cloned and expressed in various bacterial expression systems to obtain pure and soluble recombinant Gam1 protein for in vitro functional and structural studies. While Gam1 was insoluble in most expression systems tested, it became soluble when it was expressed as a fusion protein with trigger factor (TF), a ribosome associated bacterial chaperone, under the control of a cold shock promoter. Careful optimization indicates that both low temperature induction and the chaperone function of TF play critical roles in increasing Gam1 solubility. Soluble Gam1 was purified to homogeneity through sequential chromatography techniques. Monomeric Gam1 was obtained via size exclusion chromatography and analyzed by dynamic light scattering. The SUMOylation inhibitory function of the purified Gam1 was confirmed in an in vitro assay. These results have built the foundation for further structural investigations that will broaden our understanding of Gam1's roles in viral replication. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal modelling of dengue fever incidence in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Che-Him, Norziha; Ghazali Kamardan, M.; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Sufahani, Suliadi; Mohamad, Mahathir; @ Kamariah Kamaruddin, Nafisah

2018-04-01

Previous studies reported significant relationship between dengue incidence rate (DIR) and both climatic and non-climatic factors. Therefore, this study proposes a generalised additive model (GAM) framework for dengue risk in Malaysia by using both climatic and non-climatic factors. The data used is monthly DIR for 12 states of Malaysia from 2001 to 2009. In this study, we considered an annual trend, seasonal effects, population, population density and lagged DIR, rainfall, temperature, number of rainy days and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The population density is found to be positively related to monthly DIR. There are generally weak relationships between monthly DIR and climate variables. A negative binomial GAM shows that there are statistically significant relationships between DIR with climatic and non-climatic factors. These include mean rainfall and temperature, the number of rainy days, sea surface temperature and the interaction between mean temperature (lag 1 month) and sea surface temperature (lag 6 months). These also apply to DIR (lag 3 months) and population density.

Modeling Monthly Spatial Distribution of Ommastrephes bartramii CPUE in the Northwest Pacific and Its Spatially Nonstationary Relationships with the Marine Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Yongjiu; Liu, Yang; Chen, Xinjun

2018-06-01

There are substantial spatial variations in the relationships between catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) and oceanographic conditions with respect to pelagic species. This study examines the monthly spatiotemporal distribution of CPUE of the neon flying squid, Ommastrephes bartramii, in the Northwest Pacific from July to November during 2004-2013, and analyzes the relationships with oceanographic conditions using a generalized additive model (GAM) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The results show that most of the squids were harvested in waters with sea surface temperature (SST) between 7.6 and 24.6°C, chlorophyll- a (Chl- a) concentration below 1.0 mg m-3, sea surface salinity (SSS) between 32.7 and 34.6, and sea surface height (SSH) between -12.8 and 28.4 cm. The monthly spatial distribution patterns of O. bartramii predicted using GAM and GWR models are similar to observed patterns for all months. There are notable variations in the local coefficients of GWR, indicating the presence of spatial non-stationarity in the relationship between O. bartramii CPUE and oceanographic conditions. The statistical results show that there were nearly equal positive and negative coefficients for Chl- a, more positive than negative coefficients for SST, and more negative than positive coefficients for SSS and SSH. The overall accuracies of the hot spots predicted by GWR exceed 60% (except for October), indicating a good performance of this model and its improvement over GAM. Our study provides a better understanding of the ecological dynamics of O. bartramii CPUE and makes it possible to use GWR to study the spatially nonstationary characteristics of other pelagic species.

Analysis of habitat characteristics of small pelagic fish based on generalized additive models in Kepulauan Seribu Waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivai, A. A.; Siregar, V. P.; Agus, S. B.; Yasuma, H.

2018-03-01

One of the required information for sustainable fisheries management is about the habitat characteristics of a fish species. This information can be used to map the distribution of fish and map the potential fishing ground. This study aimed to analyze the habitat characteristics of small pelagic fishes (anchovy, squid, sardine and scads) which were mainly caught by lift net in Kepulauan Seribu waters. Research on habitat characteristics had been widely done, but the use of total suspended solid (TSS) parameters in this analysis is still lacking. TSS parameter which was extracted from Landsat 8 along with five other oceanographic parameters, CPUE data and location of fishing ground data from lift net fisheries in Kepulauan Seribu were included in this analysis. This analysis used Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to evaluate the relationship between CPUE and oceanographic parameters. The results of the analysis showed that each fish species had different habitat characteristics. TSS and sea surface height had a great influence on the value of CPUE from each species. All the oceanographic parameters affected the CPUE of each species. This study demonstrated the effective use of GAMs to identify the essential habitat of a fish species.

Complex multi-enhancer contacts captured by Genome Architecture Mapping (GAM)

PubMed Central

Beagrie, Robert A.; Scialdone, Antonio; Schueler, Markus; Kraemer, Dorothee C.A.; Chotalia, Mita; Xie, Sheila Q.; Barbieri, Mariano; de Santiago, Inês; Lavitas, Liron-Mark; Branco, Miguel R.; Fraser, James; Dostie, Josée; Game, Laurence; Dillon, Niall; Edwards, Paul A.W.; Nicodemi, Mario; Pombo, Ana

2017-01-01

Summary The organization of the genome in the nucleus and the interactions of genes with their regulatory elements are key features of transcriptional control and their disruption can cause disease. We developed a novel genome-wide method, Genome Architecture Mapping (GAM), for measuring chromatin contacts, and other features of three-dimensional chromatin topology, based on sequencing DNA from a large collection of thin nuclear sections. We apply GAM to mouse embryonic stem cells and identify an enrichment for specific interactions between active genes and enhancers across very large genomic distances, using a mathematical model ‘SLICE’ (Statistical Inference of Co-segregation). GAM also reveals an abundance of three-way contacts genome-wide, especially between regions that are highly transcribed or contain super-enhancers, highlighting a previously inaccessible complexity in genome architecture and a major role for gene-expression specific contacts in organizing the genome in mammalian nuclei. PMID:28273065

Influence of Coastal Submarine Groundwater Discharges on Seagrass Communities in a Subtropical Karstic Environment.

PubMed

Kantún-Manzano, C A; Herrera-Silveira, J A; Arcega-Cabrera, F

2018-01-01

The influence of coastal submarine groundwater discharges (SGD) on the distribution and abundance of seagrass meadows was investigated. In 2012, hydrological variability, nutrient variability in sediments and the biotic characteristics of two seagrass beds, one with SGD present and one without, were studied. Findings showed that SGD inputs were related with one dominant seagrass species. To further understand this, a generalized additive model (GAM) was used to explore the relationship between seagrass biomass and environment conditions (water and sediment variables). Salinity range (21-35.5 PSU) was the most influential variable (85%), explaining why H. wrightii was the sole plant species present at the SGD site. At the site without SGD, GAM could not be performed since environmental variables could not explain a total variance of > 60%. This research shows the relevance of monitoring SGD inputs in coastal karstic areas since they significantly affect biotic characteristics of seagrass beds.

Environmental drivers of mesozooplankton biomass variability in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valencia, Bellineth; Landry, Michael R.; Décima, Moira; Hannides, Cecelia C. S.

2016-12-01

The environmental drivers of zooplankton variability are poorly explored for the central subtropical Pacific, where a direct bottom-up food-web connection is suggested by increasing trends in primary production and mesozooplankton biomass at station ALOHA (A Long-term Oligotrophic Habitat Assessment) over the past 20 years (1994-2013). Here we use generalized additive models (GAMs) to investigate how these trends relate to the major modes of North Pacific climate variability. A GAM based on monthly mean data explains 43% of the temporal variability in mesozooplankton biomass with significant influences from primary productivity (PP), sea surface temperature (SST), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), and El Niño. This result mainly reflects the seasonal plankton cycle at station ALOHA, in which increasing light and SST lead to enhanced nitrogen fixation, productivity, and zooplankton biomass during summertime. Based on annual mean data, GAMs for two variables suggest that PP and 3-4 year lagged NPGO individually account for 40% of zooplankton variability. The full annual mean GAM explains 70% of variability of zooplankton biomass with significant influences from PP, 4 year lagged NPGO, and 4 year lagged Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The NPGO affects wind stress, sea surface height, and subtropical gyre circulation and has been linked to mideuphotic zone anomalies in salinity and PP at station ALOHA. Our study broadens the known impact of this climate mode on plankton dynamics in the North Pacific. While lagged transport effects are also evident for subtropical waters, our study highlights a strong coupling between zooplankton fluctuations and PP, which differs from the transport-dominated climate influences that have been found for North Pacific boundary currents.

GamTest: Psychometric Evaluation and the Role of Emotions in an Online Self-Test for Gambling Behavior.

PubMed

Jonsson, Jakob; Munck, Ingrid; Volberg, Rachel; Carlbring, Per

2017-06-01

Recent increases in the number of online gambling sites have made gambling more available, which may contribute to an increase in gambling problems. At the same time, online gambling provides opportunities to introduce measures intended to prevent problem gambling. GamTest is an online test of gambling behavior that provides information that can be used to give players individualized feedback and recommendations for action. The aim of this study is to explore the dimensionality of GamTest and validate it against the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI) and the gambler's own perceived problems. A recent psychometric approach, exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM) is used. Well-defined constructs are identified in a two-step procedure fitting a traditional exploratory factor analysis model as well as a so-called bifactor model. Using data collected at four Nordic gambling sites in the autumn of 2009 (n = 10,402), the GamTest ESEM analyses indicate high correspondence with the players' own understanding of their problems and with the PGSI, a validated measure of problem gambling. We conclude that GamTest captures five dimensions of problematic gambling (i.e., overconsumption of money and time, and monetary, social and emotional negative consequences) with high reliability, and that the bifactor approach, composed of a general factor and specific residual factors, reproduces all these factors except one, the negative consequences emotional factor, which contributes to the dominant part of the general factor. The results underscore the importance of tailoring feedback and support to online gamblers with a particular focus on how to handle emotions in relation to their gambling behavior.

A climatological model of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahiduzzaman, Mohammad; Oliver, Eric C. J.; Wotherspoon, Simon J.; Holbrook, Neil J.

2017-10-01

Extensive damage and loss of life can be caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall. Modelling of TC landfall probability is beneficial to insurance/re-insurance companies, decision makers, government policy and planning, and residents in coastal areas. In this study, we develop a climatological model of tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall for North Indian Ocean (NIO) rim countries based on kernel density estimation, a generalised additive model (GAM) including an Euler integration step, and landfall detection using a country mask approach. Using a 35-year record (1979-2013) of tropical cyclone track observations from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (part of the International Best Track Archive Climate Stewardship Version 6), the GAM is fitted to the observed cyclone track velocities as a smooth function of location in each season. The distribution of cyclone genesis points is approximated by kernel density estimation. The model simulated TCs are randomly selected from the fitted kernel (TC genesis), and the cyclone paths (TC tracks), represented by the GAM together with the application of stochastic innovations at each step, are simulated to generate a suite of NIO rim landfall statistics. Three hindcast validation methods are applied to evaluate the integrity of the model. First, leave-one-out cross validation is applied whereby the country of landfall is determined by the majority vote (considering the location by only highest percentage of landfall) from the simulated tracks. Second, the probability distribution of simulated landfall is evaluated against the observed landfall. Third, the distances between the point of observed landfall and simulated landfall are compared and quantified. Overall, the model shows very good cross-validated hindcast skill of modelled landfalling cyclones against observations in each of the NIO tropical cyclone seasons and for most NIO rim countries, with only a relatively small difference in the percentage of predicted landfall locations compared with observations.

Ozone Observations by the Gas and Aerosol Measurement Sensor during SOLVE II

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pitts, M. C.; Thomason, L. W.; Zawodny, J. M.; Wenny, B. N.; Livingston, J. M.; Russell, P. B.; Yee, J.-H.; Swartz, W. H.; Shetter, R. E.

2006-01-01

The Gas and Aerosol Measurement Sensor (GAMS) was deployed aboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft during the second SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE II). GAMS acquired line-of-sight (LOS) direct solar irradiance spectra during the sunlit portions of ten science flights of the DC-8 between 12 January and 4 February 2003. Differential line-of-sight (DLOS) optical depth spectra are produced from the GAMS raw solar irradiance spectra. Then, DLOS ozone number densities are retrieved from the GAMS spectra using a multiple linear regression spectral fitting technique. Both the DLOS optical depth spectra and retrieved ozone data are compared with coincident measurements from two other solar instruments aboard the DC-8 platform to demonstrate the robustness and stability of the GAMS data. The GAMS ozone measurements are then utilized to evaluate the quality of the Wulf band ozone cross sections, a critical component of the SAGE III aerosol, water vapor, and temperature/pressure retrievals. Results suggest the ozone cross section compilation of Shettle and Anderson currently used operationally in SAGE III data processing may be in error by as much as 10-20% in theWulf bands, and their lack of reported temperature dependence is a significant deficiency. A second, more recent, cross section database compiled for the SCIAMACHY satellite mission appears to be of much better quality in the Wulf bands, but still may have errors as large as 5% near the Wulf band absorption peaks, which is slightly larger than their stated uncertainty. Additional laboratory measurements of the Wulf band cross sections should be pursued to further reduce their uncertainty and better quantify their temperature dependence.

Improving the Taiwan Military’s Disaster Relief Response to Typhoons

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

circulation, are mostly westbound. When they reach the vicinity of Taiwan or the Philippines , which are always at the edge of the Pacific subtropical high...files from the POM base case model, one set for each design point. To automate the process of running all the GAMS files, a Windows batch file ( BAT ...is used to call on GAMS to solve each version of the model. The BAT file creates a new directory for each run to hold output, and one of the outputs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Xuesong; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Manowitz, David H.

Accurate quantification and clear understanding of regional scale cropland carbon (C) cycling is critical for designing effective policies and management practices that can contribute toward stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, extrapolating site-scale observations to regional scales represents a major challenge confronting the agricultural modeling community. This study introduces a novel geospatial agricultural modeling system (GAMS) exploring the integration of the mechanistic Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model, spatially-resolved data, surveyed management data, and supercomputing functions for cropland C budgets estimates. This modeling system creates spatially-explicit modeling units at a spatial resolution consistent with remotely-sensed crop identification and assigns cropping systems tomore » each of them by geo-referencing surveyed crop management information at the county or state level. A parallel computing algorithm was also developed to facilitate the computationally intensive model runs and output post-processing and visualization. We evaluated GAMS against National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported crop yields and inventory estimated county-scale cropland C budgets averaged over 2000–2008. We observed good overall agreement, with spatial correlation of 0.89, 0.90, 0.41, and 0.87, for crop yields, Net Primary Production (NPP), Soil Organic C (SOC) change, and Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), respectively. However, we also detected notable differences in the magnitude of NPP and NEE, as well as in the spatial pattern of SOC change. By performing crop-specific annual comparisons, we discuss possible explanations for the discrepancies between GAMS and the inventory method, such as data requirements, representation of agroecosystem processes, completeness and accuracy of crop management data, and accuracy of crop area representation. Based on these analyses, we further discuss strategies to improve GAMS by updating input data and by designing more efficient parallel computing capability to quantitatively assess errors associated with the simulation of C budget components. The modularized design of the GAMS makes it flexible to be updated and adapted for different agricultural models so long as they require similar input data, and to be linked with socio-economic models to understand the effectiveness and implications of diverse C management practices and policies.« less

Winter air pollution and infant bronchiolitis in Paris.

PubMed

Ségala, Claire; Poizeau, David; Mesbah, Mounir; Willems, Sylvie; Maidenberg, Manuel

2008-01-01

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is one of the most common respiratory pathogens in infants and young children. It is not known why some previously healthy infants, when in contact with RSV, develop bronchiolitis whereas others have only mild symptoms. Our study aimed to evaluate the possible association between emergency hospital visits for bronchiolitis and air pollution in the Paris region during four winter seasons. We included children under the age of 3 years who attended emergency room services for bronchiolitis (following standardized definition) during the period 1997-2001. Two series of data from 34 hospitals, the daily number of emergency hospital consultations (n=50857) and the daily number of hospitalizations (n=16588) for bronchiolitis, were analyzed using alternative statistical methods; these were the generalized additive model (GAM) and case-crossover models. After adjustments for public holidays, holidays and meteorological variables the case-crossover model showed that PM10, BS, SO2 and NO2 were positively associated with both consultations and hospitalizations. GAM models, adjusting for long-term trend, seasonality, holiday, public holiday, weekday and meteorological variables, gave similar results for SO2 and PM10. This study shows that air pollution may act as a trigger for the occurrence of acute severe bronchiolitis cases.

Complex multi-enhancer contacts captured by genome architecture mapping.

PubMed

Beagrie, Robert A; Scialdone, Antonio; Schueler, Markus; Kraemer, Dorothee C A; Chotalia, Mita; Xie, Sheila Q; Barbieri, Mariano; de Santiago, Inês; Lavitas, Liron-Mark; Branco, Miguel R; Fraser, James; Dostie, Josée; Game, Laurence; Dillon, Niall; Edwards, Paul A W; Nicodemi, Mario; Pombo, Ana

2017-03-23

The organization of the genome in the nucleus and the interactions of genes with their regulatory elements are key features of transcriptional control and their disruption can cause disease. Here we report a genome-wide method, genome architecture mapping (GAM), for measuring chromatin contacts and other features of three-dimensional chromatin topology on the basis of sequencing DNA from a large collection of thin nuclear sections. We apply GAM to mouse embryonic stem cells and identify enrichment for specific interactions between active genes and enhancers across very large genomic distances using a mathematical model termed SLICE (statistical inference of co-segregation). GAM also reveals an abundance of three-way contacts across the genome, especially between regions that are highly transcribed or contain super-enhancers, providing a level of insight into genome architecture that, owing to the technical limitations of current technologies, has previously remained unattainable. Furthermore, GAM highlights a role for gene-expression-specific contacts in organizing the genome in mammalian nuclei.

Examining spatiotemporal distribution and CPUE-environment relationships for the jumbo flying squid Dosidicus gigas offshore Peru based on spatial autoregressive model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Yongjiu; Chen, Xinjun; Liu, Yang

2017-09-01

The spatiotemporal distribution and relationship between nominal catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) and environment for the jumbo flying squid (Dosidicus gigas) were examined in offshore Peruvian waters during 2009-2013. Three typical oceanographic factors affecting the squid habitat were investigated in this research, including sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS) and sea surface height (SSH). We studied the CPUE-environment relationships for D. gigas using a spatially-lagged version of spatial autoregressive (SAR) model and a generalized additive model (GAM), with the latter for auxiliary and comparative purposes. The annual fishery centroids were distributed broadly in an area bounded by 79.5°-82.7°W and 11.9°-17.1°S, while the monthly fishery centroids were spatially close and lay in a smaller area bounded by 81.0°-81.2°W and 14.3°-15.4°S. Our results show that the preferred environmental ranges for D. gigas offshore Peru were 20.9°-21.9°C for SST, 35.16-35.32 for SSS and 27.2-31.5 cm for SSH in the areas bounded by 78°-80°W/82-84°W and 15°-18°S. Monthly spatial distributions during October to December were predicted using the calibrated GAM and SAR models and general similarities were found between the observed and predicted patterns for the nominal CPUE of D. gigas. The overall accuracies for the hotspots generated by the SAR model were much higher than those produced by the GAM model for all three months. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the spatiotemporal distributions of D. gigas offshore Peru, and offer a new SAR modeling method for advancing fishery science.

Evaluation of Intercomparisons of Four Different Types of Model Simulating TWP-ICE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petch, Jon; Hill, Adrian; Davies, Laura; Fridlind, Ann; Jakob, Christian; Lin, Yanluan; Xie, Shaoecheng; Zhu, Ping

2013-01-01

Four model intercomparisons were run and evaluated using the TWP-ICE field campaign, each involving different types of atmospheric model. Here we highlight what can be learnt from having single-column model (SCM), cloud-resolving model (CRM), global atmosphere model (GAM) and limited-area model (LAM) intercomparisons all based around the same field campaign. We also make recommendations for anyone planning further large multi-model intercomparisons to ensure they are of maximum value to the model development community. CRMs tended to match observations better than other model types, although there were exceptions such as outgoing long-wave radiation. All SCMs grew large temperature and moisture biases and performed worse than other model types for many diagnostics. The GAMs produced a delayed and significantly reduced peak in domain-average rain rate when compared to the observations. While it was shown that this was in part due to the analysis used to drive these models, the LAMs were also driven by this analysis and did not have the problem to the same extent. Based on differences between the models with parametrized convection (SCMs and GAMs) and those without (CRMs and LAMs), we speculate that that having explicit convection helps to constrain liquid water whereas the ice contents are controlled more by the representation of the microphysics.

Ultrasound-responsive gene-activated matrices for osteogenic gene therapy using matrix-assisted sonoporation.

PubMed

Nomikou, N; Feichtinger, G A; Saha, S; Nuernberger, S; Heimel, P; Redl, H; McHale, A P

2018-01-01

Gene-activated matrix (GAM)-based therapeutics for tissue regeneration are limited by efficacy, the lack of spatiotemporal control and availability of target cells, all of which impact negatively on their translation to the clinic. Here, an advanced ultrasound-responsive GAM is described containing target cells that facilitates matrix-assisted sonoporation (MAS) to induce osteogenic differentiation. Ultrasound-responsive GAMs consisting of fibrin/collagen hybrid-matrices containing microbubbles, bone morphogenetic protein BMP2/7 coexpression plasmids together with C2C12 cells were treated with ultrasound either in vitro or following parenteral intramuscular implantation in vivo. Using direct measurement for alkaline phosphatase activity, von Kossa staining and immunohistochemical analysis for osteocalcin expression, MAS-stimulated osteogenic differentiation was confirmed in the GAMs in vitro 7 days after treatment with ultrasound. At day 30 post-treatment with ultrasound, ectopic osteogenic differentiation was confirmed in vivo using X-ray microcomputed tomography and histological analysis. Osteogenic differentiation was indicated by the presence of ectopic bone structures in all animals treated with MAS. In addition, bone volumes in this group were statistically greater than those in the control groups. This novel approach of incorporating a MAS capability into GAMs could be exploited to facilitate ex vivo gene transfer with subsequent surgical implantation or alternatively provide a minimally invasive means of stimulating in situ transgene delivery for osteoinductive gene-based therapies. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Functional genomics of gam56: characterisation of the role of a 56 kilodalton sexual stage antigen in oocyst wall formation in Eimeria maxima.

PubMed

Belli, Sabina I; Witcombe, David; Wallach, Michael G; Smith, Nicholas C

2002-12-19

Gam56 (M(r) 56,000) is an antigen found in the sexual (macrogametocyte) stage of the intestinal parasite Eimeria maxima that is implicated in protective immunity. The gene (gam56) encoding this protein was cloned and sequenced. It is a single-copy, intronless gene, that localises to a 1,754 bp transcript, and is first detected at 120 h p.i. The gene predicts two distinct protein domains; a tyrosine-serine rich region, composed of amino acids implicated in oocyst wall formation in Eimeria spp., and a proline-methionine rich region often detected in extensins, protein components of plant cell walls. The tyrosine-serine rich region predicts a secondary structure commonly seen in the structural protein fibroin, a component of the cocoon of the caterpillar Bombyx mori. The inference that gam56 is a structural component of the oocyst wall was confirmed when a specific antibody to gam56 recognised the wall forming bodies in macrogametocytes, and the walls of oocysts and sporocysts. Together, these data identify a developmentally regulated, sexual stage gene in E. maxima that shares primary and secondary structure features in common with intrinsic structural proteins in other parasites such as Schistosoma mansoni and Fasciola hepatica, and other organisms across different phyla, including the caterpillar Bombyx mori. In addition, these findings provide evidence for the molecular mechanisms underlying oocyst wall formation in Eimeria and the role of gametocyte antigens in this process.

The Geocybernetic Assessment Matrix (GAM) — A new assessment tool for evaluating the level and nature of sustainability or unsustainability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Phillips, Jason, E-mail: jp1@tiscali.co.uk

Evaluating sustainability from EIA-based assessments has been problematic at best. This is due to the use of reductionist and qualitative approaches which is dependent upon the perspective of the assessor(s). Therefore, a more rigorous and holistic approach is required to evaluate sustainability in a more consistent way. In this paper, a matrix-based methodology in order to assess the indicated level and nature of sustainability for any project, policy, indicators, legislation, regulation, or other framework is described. The Geocybernetic Assessment Matrix (GAM) is designed to evaluate the level and nature of sustainability or unsustainability occurring in respect the fundamental and complexmore » geocybernetic paradigms. The GAM method is described in detail in respect to the theory behind it and the methodology. The GAM is then demonstrated using an appropriate case study — Part 1 of the UK Climate Change Act (2008) concerning carbon budgets and targets. The results indicate that the Part 1 of Act may not achieve the desired goals in contributing towards sustainable development through the stated mechanisms for carbon budgets and targets. The paper then discusses the broader context of the GAM with respect to the core themes evident in the development and application of the GAM of: sustainability science; sustainability assessment; application value of the GAM; and future research and development. - Highlights: • A new assessment tool called the Geocybernetic Assessment Matrix (GAM) described. • GAM evaluates the level and nature of sustainability or unsustainability. • GAM demonstrated by application to Part 1 of the UK Climate Change Act (CCA). • Part 1 of CCA has significant flaws in achieving a sustainable pathway. • GAM offers a potentially useful tool for quantitatively evaluating sustainability.« less

The linear relationship between the Vulnerable Elders Survey-13 score and mortality in an Asian population of community-dwelling older persons.

PubMed

Wang, Jye; Lin, Wender; Chang, Ling-Hui

2018-01-01

The Vulnerable Elders Survey-13 (VES-13) has been used as a screening tool to identify vulnerable community-dwelling older persons for more in-depth assessment and targeted interventions. Although many studies supported its use in different populations, few have addressed Asian populations. The optimal scaling system for the VES-13 in predicting health outcomes also has not been adequately tested. This study (1) assesses the applicability of the VES-13 to predict the mortality of community-dwelling older persons in Taiwan, (2) identifies the best scaling system for the VES-13 in predicting mortality using generalized additive models (GAMs), and (3) determines whether including covariates, such as socio-demographic factors and common geriatric syndromes, improves model fitting. This retrospective longitudinal cohort study analyzed the data of 2184 community-dwelling persons 65 years old or older from the 2003 wave of the national-wide Taiwan Longitudinal Study on Aging. Cox proportional hazards models and Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) were used. The VES-13 significantly predicted the mortality of Taiwan's community-dwelling elders. A one-point increase in the VES-13 score raised the risk of death by 26% (hazard ratio, 1.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.21-1.32). The hazard ratio of death increased linearly with each additional VES-13 score point, suggesting that using a continuous scale is appropriate. Inclusion of socio-demographic factors and geriatric syndromes improved the model-fitting. The VES-13 is appropriate for an Asian population. VES-13 scores linearly predict the mortality of this population. Adjusting the weighting of the physical activity items may improve the performance of the VES-13. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Plankton Biomass Models Based on GIS and Remote Sensing Technique for Predicting Marine Megafauna Hotspots in the Solor Waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putra, MIH; Lewis, SA; Kurniasih, EM; Prabuning, D.; Faiqoh, E.

2016-11-01

Geographic information system and remote sensing techniques can be used to assist with distribution modelling; a useful tool that helps with strategic design and management plans for MPAs. This study built a pilot model of plankton biomass and distribution in the waters off Solor and Lembata, and is the first study to identify marine megafauna foraging areas in the region. Forty-three samples of zooplankton were collected every 4 km according to the range time and station of aqua MODIS. Generalized additive model (GAM) we used to modelling zooplankton biomass response from environmental properties.Thirty one samples were used to build a model of inverse distance weighting (IDW) (cell size 0.01°) and 12 samples were used as a control to verify the models accuracy. Furthermore, Getis-Ord Gi was used to identify the significance of the hotspot and cold-spot for foraging area. The GAM models was explain 88.1% response of zooplankton biomass and percent to full moon, phytopankton biomassbeing strong predictors. The sampling design was essential in order to build highly accurate models. Our models 96% accurate for phytoplankton and 88% accurate for zooplankton. The foraging behaviour was significantly related to plankton biomass hotspots, which were two times higher compared to plankton cold-spots. In addition, extremely steep slopes of the Lamakera strait support strong upwelling with highly productive waters that affect the presence of marine megafauna. This study detects that the Lamakera strait provides the planktonic requirements for marine megafauna foraging, helping to explain why this region supports such high diversity and abundance of marine megafauna.

Using generalized additive modeling to empirically identify thresholds within the ITERS in relation to toddlers' cognitive development.

PubMed

Setodji, Claude Messan; Le, Vi-Nhuan; Schaack, Diana

2013-04-01

Research linking high-quality child care programs and children's cognitive development has contributed to the growing popularity of child care quality benchmarking efforts such as quality rating and improvement systems (QRIS). Consequently, there has been an increased interest in and a need for approaches to identifying thresholds, or cutpoints, in the child care quality measures used in these benchmarking efforts that differentiate between different levels of children's cognitive functioning. To date, research has provided little guidance to policymakers as to where these thresholds should be set. Using the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Birth Cohort (ECLS-B) data set, this study explores the use of generalized additive modeling (GAM) as a method of identifying thresholds on the Infant/Toddler Environment Rating Scale (ITERS) in relation to toddlers' performance on the Mental Development subscale of the Bayley Scales of Infant Development (the Bayley Mental Development Scale Short Form-Research Edition, or BMDSF-R). The present findings suggest that simple linear models do not always correctly depict the relationships between ITERS scores and BMDSF-R scores and that GAM-derived thresholds were more effective at differentiating among children's performance levels on the BMDSF-R. Additionally, the present findings suggest that there is a minimum threshold on the ITERS that must be exceeded before significant improvements in children's cognitive development can be expected. There may also be a ceiling threshold on the ITERS, such that beyond a certain level, only marginal increases in children's BMDSF-R scores are observed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

Acute childhood asthma in Galway city from 1985-2005: relationship to air pollution and climate.

PubMed

Loftus, A; Loftus, B G; Muircheartaigh, I O; Newell, J; Scarrott, C; Jennings, S

2014-01-01

We examine the relationship of air pollution and climatic variables to asthma admission rates of children in Galway city over a 21 year period. Paediatric asthma admissions were recorded from 1985-2005, and admission rates per thousand calculated for pre-school (1-4 years), school aged (5-14 years) and all children (1-14 years) on a monthly and annual basis. These data were compared to average monthly and annual climatic variables (rainfall, humidity, sunshine, wind speed and temperature) and black smoke levels for the city. Simple correlation and Poisson Generalized Additive Models (GAM) were used. Admission rates each month are significantly correlated with smoke levels (p = 0.007). Poisson GAM also shows a relationship between admissions and pollution (p = 0.07). Annual smoke levels impact more on admission rates of preschoolers (p = 0.04) than school age children (p = 0.10). These data suggest that air pollution is an important factor in the epidemiology of acute childhood asthma.

Graphene Aerogel Templated Fabrication of Phase Change Microspheres as Thermal Buffers in Microelectronic Devices.

PubMed

Wang, Xuchun; Li, Guangyong; Hong, Guo; Guo, Qiang; Zhang, Xuetong

2017-11-29

Phase change materials, changing from solid to liquid and vice versa, are capable of storing and releasing a large amount of thermal energy during the phase change, and thus hold promise for numerous applications including thermal protection of electronic devices. Shaping these materials into microspheres for additional fascinating properties is efficient but challenging. In this regard, a novel phase change microsphere with the design for electrical-regulation and thermal storage/release properties was fabricated via the combination of monodispersed graphene aerogel microsphere (GAM) and phase change paraffin. A programmable method, i.e., coupling ink jetting-liquid marbling-supercritical drying (ILS) techniques, was demonstrated to produce monodispersed graphene aerogel microspheres (GAMs) with precise size-control. The resulting GAMs showed ultralow density, low electrical resistance, and high specific surface area with only ca. 5% diameter variation coefficient, and exhibited promising performance in smart switches. The phase change microspheres were obtained by capillary filling of phase change paraffin inside the GAMs and exhibited excellent properties, such as low electrical resistance, high latent heat, well sphericity, and thermal buffering. Assembling the phase change microsphere into the microcircuit, we found that this tiny device was quite sensitive and could respond to heat as low as 0.027 J.

Treatment of nonhealing diabetic foot ulcers with a platelet-derived growth factor gene-activated matrix (GAM501): results of a phase 1/2 trial.

PubMed

Mulder, Gerit; Tallis, Arthur J; Marshall, V Tracy; Mozingo, David; Phillips, Laurie; Pierce, Glenn F; Chandler, Lois A; Sosnowski, Barbara K

2009-01-01

The results from a Phase 1/2 study of a replication-defective adenovirus encoding human platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF)-B formulated in a bovine collagen (Ad-5PDGF-B; 2.6% collagen; GAM501) gel for nonhealing neuropathic diabetic foot ulcers is reported. The primary objectives of the study were to evaluate the safety, maximum-tolerated dose, and preliminary biological activity of GAM501. Fifteen patients enrolled into the study with chronic, nonhealing ulcers received either a single administration of GAM501 at one of three dose levels, or up to four administrations of GAM501 at 1-week intervals. All patients received standard of care treatment including debridement and were required to wear an off-loading shoe. GAM501 was found to be safe and well tolerated with no evidence of systemic or local toxicity at all doses so no maximum-tolerated dose was reached. Serum antibody titers to platelet-derived growth factor-B homodimer and collagen were negative and adenoviral DNA was not detected in the blood. In the 12 patients that completed the study, ulcer closure was observed by Month 3 in 10 patients, seven of whom received a single application of GAM501. In conclusion, GAM501 did not appear to have any toxicity at doses that showed biological activity. GAM501 holds promise as a potentially effective treatment for nonhealing diabetic foot ulcers.

TEMPEST Simulations of Collisionless Damping of Geodesic-Acoustic Mode in Edge Plasma Pedestal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, X Q; Xiong, Z; Nevins, W M

The fully nonlinear (full-f) 4D TEMPEST gyrokinetic continuum code produces frequency, collisionless damping of GAM and zonal flow with fully nonlinear Boltzmann electrons for the inverse aspect ratio {epsilon}-scan and the tokamak safety factor q-scan in homogeneous plasmas. The TEMPEST simulation shows that GAM exists in edge plasma pedestal for steep density and temperature gradients, and an initial GAM relaxes to the standard neoclassical residual, rather than Rosenbluth-Hinton residual due to the presence of ion-ion collisions. The enhanced GAM damping explains experimental BES measurements on the edge q scaling of the GAM amplitude.

TEMPEST Simulations of Collisionless Damping of Geodesic-Acoustic Mode in Edge Plasma Pedestal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, X; Xiong, Z; Nevins, W

The fully nonlinear 4D TEMPEST gyrokinetic continuum code produces frequency, collisionless damping of geodesic-acoustic mode (GAM) and zonal flow with fully nonlinear Boltzmann electrons for the inverse aspect ratio {epsilon}-scan and the tokamak safety factor q-scan in homogeneous plasmas. The TEMPEST simulation shows that GAM exists in edge plasma pedestal for steep density and temperature gradients, and an initial GAM relaxes to the standard neoclassical residual, rather than Rosenbluth-Hinton residual due to the presence of ion-ion collisions. The enhanced GAM damping explains experimental BES measurements on the edge q scaling of the GAM amplitude.

Spatial variation in mortality risk for haematological malignancies near a petrochemical refinery: a population-based case-control study

PubMed Central

Di Salvo, Francesca; Meneghini, Elisabetta; Vieira, Veronica; Baili, Paolo; Mariottini, Mauro; Baldini, Marco; Micheli, Andrea; Sant, Milena

2015-01-01

Introduction The study investigated the geographic variation of mortality risk for hematological malignancies (HMs) in order to identify potential high-risk areas near an Italian petrochemical refinery. Material and methods A population-based case-control study was conducted and residential histories for 171 cases and 338 sex- and age-matched controls were collected. Confounding factors were obtained from interviews with consenting relatives for 109 HM deaths and 267 controls. To produce risk mortality maps, two different approaches were applied. We mapped (1) adptive kernel density relative risk estimation (KDE) for case-control studies which estimates a spatial relative risk function using the ratio between cases and controls’ densities, and (2) estimated odds ratios for case-control study data using generalized additive models (GAMs) to smooth the effect of location, a proxy for exposure, while adjusting for confounding variables. Results No high-risk areas for HM mortality were identified among all subjects (men and women combined), by applying both approaches. Using the adaptive KDE approach, we found a significant increase in death risk only among women in a large area 2–6 km southeast of the refinery and the application of GAMs also identified a similarly-located significant high-risk area among women only (global p-value<0.025). Potential confounding risk factors we considered in the GAM did not alter the results. Conclusion Both approaches identified a high-risk area close to the refinery among women only. Those spatial methods are useful tools for public policy management to determine priority areas for intervention. Our findings suggest several directions for further research in order to identify other potential environmental exposures that may be assessed in forthcoming studies based on detailed exposure modeling. PMID:26073202

Interactions across Multiple Stimulus Dimensions in Primary Auditory Cortex.

PubMed

Sloas, David C; Zhuo, Ran; Xue, Hongbo; Chambers, Anna R; Kolaczyk, Eric; Polley, Daniel B; Sen, Kamal

2016-01-01

Although sensory cortex is thought to be important for the perception of complex objects, its specific role in representing complex stimuli remains unknown. Complex objects are rich in information along multiple stimulus dimensions. The position of cortex in the sensory hierarchy suggests that cortical neurons may integrate across these dimensions to form a more gestalt representation of auditory objects. Yet, studies of cortical neurons typically explore single or few dimensions due to the difficulty of determining optimal stimuli in a high dimensional stimulus space. Evolutionary algorithms (EAs) provide a potentially powerful approach for exploring multidimensional stimulus spaces based on real-time spike feedback, but two important issues arise in their application. First, it is unclear whether it is necessary to characterize cortical responses to multidimensional stimuli or whether it suffices to characterize cortical responses to a single dimension at a time. Second, quantitative methods for analyzing complex multidimensional data from an EA are lacking. Here, we apply a statistical method for nonlinear regression, the generalized additive model (GAM), to address these issues. The GAM quantitatively describes the dependence between neural response and all stimulus dimensions. We find that auditory cortical neurons in mice are sensitive to interactions across dimensions. These interactions are diverse across the population, indicating significant integration across stimulus dimensions in auditory cortex. This result strongly motivates using multidimensional stimuli in auditory cortex. Together, the EA and the GAM provide a novel quantitative paradigm for investigating neural coding of complex multidimensional stimuli in auditory and other sensory cortices.

Comprehensive comparisons of geodesic acoustic mode characteristics and dynamics between Tore Supra experiments and gyrokinetic simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Storelli, A., E-mail: alexandre.storelli@lpp.polytechnique.fr; Vermare, L.; Hennequin, P.

2015-06-15

In a dedicated collisionality scan in Tore Supra, the geodesic acoustic mode (GAM) is detected and identified with the Doppler backscattering technique. Observations are compared to the results of a simulation with the gyrokinetic code GYSELA. We found that the GAM frequency in experiments is lower than predicted by simulation and theory. Moreover, the disagreement is higher in the low collisionality scenario. Bursts of non harmonic GAM oscillations have been characterized with filtering techniques, such as the Hilbert-Huang transform. When comparing this dynamical behaviour between experiments and simulation, the probability density function of GAM amplitude and the burst autocorrelation timemore » are found to be remarkably similar. In the simulation, where the radial profile of GAM frequency is continuous, we observed a phenomenon of radial phase mixing of the GAM oscillations, which could influence the burst autocorrelation time.« less

Nonlinear Full-f Edge Gyrokinetic Turbulence Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, X. Q.; Dimits, A. M.; Umansky, M. V.

2008-11-01

TEMPEST is a nonlinear full-f 5D electrostatic gyrokinetic code for simulations of neoclassical and turbulent transport for tokamak plasmas. Given an initial density perturbation, 4D TEMPEST simulations show that the kinetic GAM exists in the edge in the form of outgoing waves [1], its radial scale is set by plasma profiles, and the ion temperature inhomogeneity is necessary for GAM radial propagation. From an initial Maxwellian distribution with uniform poloidal profiles on flux surfaces, the 5D TEMPEST simulations in a flux coordinates with Boltzmann electron model in a circular geometry show the development of neoclassical equilibrium, the generation of the neoclassical electric field due to neoclassical polarization, and followed by a growth of instability due to the spatial gradients. 5D TEMPEST simulations of kinetic GAM turbulent generation, radial propagation, and its impact on transport will be reported. [1] X. Q. Xu, Phys. Rev. E., 78 (2008).

Spatio-temporal dynamics of turbulence trapped in geodesic acoustic modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasaki, M.; Kobayashi, T.; Itoh, K.; Kasuya, N.; Kosuga, Y.; Fujisawa, A.; Itoh, S.-I.

2018-01-01

The spatio-temporal dynamics of turbulence with the interaction of geodesic acoustic modes (GAMs) are investigated, focusing on the phase-space structure of turbulence, where the phase-space consists of real-space and wavenumber-space. Based on the wave-kinetic framework, the coupling equation between the GAM and the turbulence is numerically solved. The turbulence trapped by the GAM velocity field is obtained. Due to the trapping effect, the turbulence intensity increases where the second derivative of the GAM velocity (curvature of the GAM) is negative. While, in the positive-curvature region, the turbulence is suppressed. Since the trapped turbulence propagates with the GAMs, this relationship is sustained spatially and temporally. The dynamics of the turbulence in the wavenumber spectrum are converted in the evolution of the frequency spectrum, and the simulation result is compared with the experimental observation in JFT-2M tokamak, where the similar patterns are obtained. The turbulence trapping effect is a key to understand the spatial structure of the turbulence in the presence of sheared flows.

Voxel-wise prostate cell density prediction using multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging and machine learning.

PubMed

Sun, Yu; Reynolds, Hayley M; Wraith, Darren; Williams, Scott; Finnegan, Mary E; Mitchell, Catherine; Murphy, Declan; Haworth, Annette

2018-04-26

There are currently no methods to estimate cell density in the prostate. This study aimed to develop predictive models to estimate prostate cell density from multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) data at a voxel level using machine learning techniques. In vivo mpMRI data were collected from 30 patients before radical prostatectomy. Sequences included T2-weighted imaging, diffusion-weighted imaging and dynamic contrast-enhanced imaging. Ground truth cell density maps were computed from histology and co-registered with mpMRI. Feature extraction and selection were performed on mpMRI data. Final models were fitted using three regression algorithms including multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), polynomial regression (PR) and generalised additive model (GAM). Model parameters were optimised using leave-one-out cross-validation on the training data and model performance was evaluated on test data using root mean square error (RMSE) measurements. Predictive models to estimate voxel-wise prostate cell density were successfully trained and tested using the three algorithms. The best model (GAM) achieved a RMSE of 1.06 (± 0.06) × 10 3 cells/mm 2 and a relative deviation of 13.3 ± 0.8%. Prostate cell density can be quantitatively estimated non-invasively from mpMRI data using high-quality co-registered data at a voxel level. These cell density predictions could be used for tissue classification, treatment response evaluation and personalised radiotherapy.

Predicting fish community properties within estuaries: Influence of habitat type and other environmental features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

França, Susana; Vasconcelos, Rita P.; Fonseca, Vanessa F.; Tanner, Susanne E.; Reis-Santos, Patrick; Costa, Maria José; Cabral, Henrique N.

2012-07-01

Statistical models predicting species distributions are essential not only to increase knowledge on species but for their application in conservation and ecologically-based management. The variation of fish species richness and abundance in the most representative habitats (saltmarsh, mudflat and subtidal) in five estuaries along the Portuguese coast was analysed through seasonal sampling surveys in 2009. Generalized additive models (GAM) were developed to describe the variation of species richness and abundances with a set of geomorphologic, hydrologic and environmental characteristics from the sampled estuaries and habitats. GAM were chosen as the complex interactions dominating these ecosystems and species distribution are non-linear. Final models built for each estuary and for all estuaries together performed well during the calibration phase and also during the validation phase, where an unused data sub-set from each estuary was used. There was not a similar combination of variables retained by the models for the studied estuaries but factors such as the area of the habitat, the distance to estuary mouth, percentage of mud in the sediment and depth were commonly retained. The partial effect of these predictor variables on the variation of species richness and abundance in the estuaries varied markedly and the importance of preserving the heterogeneity of habitats within estuaries was highlighted. Models for each individual estuary performed better than models for estuaries combined. Predictive models could be useful as a preliminary tool to prepare long-term conservation plans at different scales.

A Quantitative Proxy for Sea-Ice Based on Diatoms: A Cautionary Tale.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nesterovich, A.; Caissie, B.

2016-12-01

Sea ice in the Polar Regions supports unique and productive ecosystems, but the current decline in the Arctic sea ice extent prompts questions about previous sea ice declines and the response of ice related ecosystems. Since satellite data only extend back to 1978, the study of sea ice before this time requires a proxy. Being one of the most productive, diatom-dominated regions in the world and having a wide range of sea ice concentrations, the Bering and Chukchi seas are a perfect place to find a relationship between the presence of sea ice and diatom community composition. The aim of this work is to develop a diatom-based proxy for the sea ice extent. A total of 473 species have been identified in 104 sediment samples, most of which were collected on board the US Coast Guard Cutter Healy ice breaker (2006, 2007) and the Norseman II (2008). The study also included some of the archived diatom smear slides made from sediments collected in 1969. The assemblages were compared to satellite-derived sea ice extent data averaged over the 10 years preceding the sampling. Previous studies in the Arctic and Antarctic regions demonstrated that the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) is one of the best choices for proxy construction. It has the advantage of using only several species instead of the whole assemblage, thus including only sea ice-associated species and minimizing the noise created by species responding to other environmental factors. Our GAM on three species (Connia compita, Fragilariopsis reginae-jahniae, and Neodenticula seminae) has low standard deviation, high level of explained variation, and holds under the ten-fold cross-validation; the standard residual analysis is acceptable. However, a spatial residual analysis revealed that the model consistently over predicts in the Chukchi Sea and under predicts in the Bering Sea. Including a spatial model into the GAM didn't improve the situation. This has led us to test other methods, including a non-parametric model Random Forests. All models showed the same consistent pattern in the residuals. We conclude that ecosystems of the Bering and Chukchi seas respond differently to sea ice concentration and an integrated proxy must take it into account.

Numerical modelling of geodesic acoustic mode relaxation in a tokamak edge

DOE PAGES

Dorf, M. A.; Cohen, R. H.; Dorr, M.; ...

2013-05-08

Here, the edge of a tokamak in a high confinement (H mode) regime is characterized by steep density gradients and a large radial electric field. Recent analytical studies demonstrated that the presence of a strong radial electric field consistent with a subsonic pedestal equilibrium modifies the conventional results of the neoclassical formalism developed for the core region. In the present work we make use of the recently developed gyrokinetic code COGENT to numerically investigate neoclassical transport in a tokamak edge including the effects of a strong radial electric field. The results of numerical simulations are found to be in goodmore » qualitative agreement with the theoretical predictions and the quantitative discrepancy is discussed. In addition, the present work investigates the effects of a strong radial electric field on the relaxation of geodesic acoustic modes (GAMs) in a tokamak edge. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the presence of a strong radial electric field characteristic of a tokamak pedestal can enhance the GAM decay rate, and heuristic arguments elucidating this finding are provided.« less

Interaction between the Sbcc Gene of Escherichia Coli and the Gam Gene of Phage λ

PubMed Central

Kulkarni, S. K.; Stahl, F. W.

1989-01-01

gam mutants of phage λ carrying long palindromes fail to form plaques on wild-type Escherichia coli but do grow on strains that are mutant in the sbcC gene. gam(+) λ carrying the same palindrome grow on both hosts and on a host deleted for the recB, C and D genes. These results suggest that the Gam protein of λ, known to interact also with E. coli's recBCD protein, can interact with the product of the sbcC gene. PMID:2531105

Experimental evidence of turbulence regulation by time-varying E  ×  B flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, C.; Henriques, R.; Hidalgo, C.; Fernandes, H.

2018-02-01

The interaction between zonal flows and turbulence is a self-regulating mechanism. Understanding this interaction is crucial to control plasma confinement. Results presented in this paper aim at understanding the conditions under which geodesic acoustic modes (GAMs) influence turbulent transport. This is achieved by performing perturbative experiments where GAMs are stimulated and externally controlled. Experiments on ISTTOK revealed that increasing the GAM shear rate over its natural value leads to a reduction of the turbulent transport and to an enhancement in particle confinement. Taking advantage of our unique experimental tools, it is shown that GAMs play an important role in the regulation of the fluctuations, constituting further evidence that the GAM shear rate is enough to regulate the ambient fluctuations without totally suppressing the turbulence.

Effect of climate on incidence of respiratory syncytial virus infections in a refugee camp in Kenya: A non-Gaussian time-series analysis

PubMed Central

Omony, Jimmy; Mwalili, Samuel M.; Achia, Thomas N. O.; Gichangi, Anthony; Mwambi, Henry

2017-01-01

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is one of the major causes of acute lower respiratory tract infections (ALRTI) in children. Children younger than 1 year are the most susceptible to RSV infection. RSV infections occur seasonally in temperate climate regions. Based on RSV surveillance and climatic data, we developed statistical models that were assessed and compared to predict the relationship between weather and RSV incidence among refugee children younger than 5 years in Dadaab refugee camp in Kenya. Most time-series analyses rely on the assumption of Gaussian-distributed data. However, surveillance data often do not have a Gaussian distribution. We used a generalized linear model (GLM) with a sinusoidal component over time to account for seasonal variation and extended it to a generalized additive model (GAM) with smoothing cubic splines. Climatic factors were included as covariates in the models before and after timescale decompositions, and the results were compared. Models with decomposed covariates fit RSV incidence data better than those without. The Poisson GAM with decomposed covariates of climatic factors fit the data well and had a higher explanatory and predictive power than GLM. The best model predicted the relationship between atmospheric conditions and RSV infection incidence among children younger than 5 years. This knowledge helps public health officials to prepare for, and respond more effectively to increasing RSV incidence in low-resource regions or communities. PMID:28570627

Genetic analysis of the roles of agaA, agaI, and agaS genes in the N-acetyl-D-galactosamine and D-galactosamine catabolic pathways in Escherichia coli strains O157:H7 and C

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The catabolic pathways of N-acetyl-D-galactosamine (Aga) and D-galactosamine (Gam) in E. coli were proposed from bioinformatic analysis of the aga/gam regulon in E. coli K-12 and later from studies using E. coli C. Of the thirteen genes in this cluster, the roles of agaA, agaI, and agaS predicted to code for Aga-6-P-deacetylase, Gam-6-P deaminase/isomerase, and ketose-aldolase isomerase, respectively, have not been experimentally tested. Here we study their roles in Aga and Gam utilization in E. coli O157:H7 and in E. coli C. Results Knockout mutants in agaA, agaI, and agaS were constructed to test their roles in Aga and Gam utilization. Knockout mutants in the N-acetylglucosamine (GlcNAc) pathway genes nagA and nagB coding for GlcNAc-6-P deacetylase and glucosamine-6-P deaminase/isomerase, respectively, and double knockout mutants ΔagaA ΔnagA and ∆agaI ∆nagB were also constructed to investigate if there is any interplay of these enzymes between the Aga/Gam and the GlcNAc pathways. It is shown that Aga utilization was unaffected in ΔagaA mutants but ΔagaA ΔnagA mutants were blocked in Aga and GlcNAc utilization. E. coli C ΔnagA could not grow on GlcNAc but could grow when the aga/gam regulon was constitutively expressed. Complementation of ΔagaA ΔnagA mutants with either agaA or nagA resulted in growth on both Aga and GlcNAc. It was also found that ΔagaI, ΔnagB, and ∆agaI ΔnagB mutants were unaffected in utilization of Aga and Gam. Importantly, ΔagaS mutants were blocked in Aga and Gam utilization. Expression analysis of relevant genes in these strains with different genetic backgrounds by real time RT-PCR supported these observations. Conclusions Aga utilization was not affected in ΔagaA mutants because nagA was expressed and substituted for agaA. Complementation of ΔagaA ΔnagA mutants with either agaA or nagA also showed that both agaA and nagA can substitute for each other. The ∆agaI, ∆nagB, and ∆agaI ∆nagB mutants were not affected in Aga and Gam utilization indicating that neither agaI nor nagB is involved in the deamination and isomerization of Gam-6-P. We propose that agaS codes for Gam-6-P deaminase/isomerase in the Aga/Gam pathway. PMID:23634833

Geodesic acoustic mode (GAM) like oscillations and RMP effect in the STOR-M tokamak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, Debjyoti; Nakajima, Masaru; Melnikov, A. V.; McColl, David; Rohollahi, Akbar; Elgriw, Sayf; Xiao, Chijin; Hirose, Akira

2018-02-01

A new kind of quasi-coherent mode was observed in ohmic plasma in the STOR-M tokamak. It is featured with a clear solitary peak around 30-35 kHz in the power spectra of the ion saturation current (I_sat) of Langmuir probe as well as poloidal and toroidal mode numbers (m  =  1,n  =  0) as per the prediction of conventional geodesic acoustic mode (GAM) theory. The dispersion relation of the mode is also similar to GAM and it also shows collisional damping. In contrast to conventional GAM, the floating potential ϕ of the observed GAM-like mode does not show similar symmetric poloidal and toroidal mode numbers (m  =  0,n  =  0), but has (m  =  1,n  =  1). The GAM-like mode has also a pronounced magnetic component with mixed poloidal modes (m=3~and~m=5; n=1 ), as observed by Mirnov coils. This mode is suppressed by the application of resonance magnetic perturbations.

Eimeria maxima recombinant Gam82 gametocyte antigen vaccine protects against coccidiosis and augments humoral and cell-mediated immunity.

PubMed

Jang, Seung I; Lillehoj, Hyun S; Lee, Sung Hyen; Lee, Kyung Woo; Park, Myeong Seon; Cha, Sung-Rok; Lillehoj, Erik P; Subramanian, B Mohana; Sriraman, R; Srinivasan, V A

2010-04-09

Intestinal infection with Eimeria, the etiologic agent of avian coccidiosis, stimulates protective immunity to subsequent colonization by the homologous parasite, while cross-protection against heterologous species is poor. As a first step toward the development of a broad specificity Eimeria vaccine, this study was designed to assess a purified recombinant protein from Eimeria maxima gametocytes (Gam82) in stimulating immunity against experimental infection with live parasites. Following Gam82 intramuscular immunization and oral parasite challenge, body weight gain, fecal oocyst output, lesion scores, serum antibody response, and cytokine production were assessed to evaluate vaccination efficacy. Animals vaccinated with Gam82 and challenged with E. maxima showed lower oocyst shedding and reduced intestinal pathology compared with non-vaccinated and parasite-challenged animals. Gam82 vaccination also stimulated the production of antigen-specific serum antibodies and induced greater levels of IL-2 and IL-15 mRNAs compared with non-vaccinated controls. These results demonstrate that the Gam82 recombinant protein protects against E. maxima and augments humoral and cell-mediated immunity. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Tempest simulations of kinetic GAM mode and neoclassical turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, X. Q.; Dimits, A. M.

2007-11-01

TEMPEST is a nonlinear five dimensional (3d2v) gyrokinetic continuum code for studies of H-mode edge plasma neoclassical transport and turbulence in real divertor geometry. The 4D TEMPEST code correctly produces frequency, collisionless damping of GAM and zonal flow with fully nonlinear Boltzmann electrons in homogeneous plasmas. For large q=4 to 9, the Tempest simulations show that a series of resonance at higher harmonics v||=φGqR0/n with n=4 become effective. The TEMPEST simulation also shows that GAM exists in edge plasma pedestal for steep density and temperature gradients, and an initial GAM relaxes to the standard neoclassical residual with neoclassical transport, rather than Rosenbluth-Hinton residual due to the presence of ion-ion collisions. The enhanced GAM damping explains experimental BES measurements on the edge q scaling of the GAM amplitude. Our 5D gyrokinetic code is built on 4D Tempest neoclassical code with extension to a fifth dimension in toroidal direction and with 3D domain decompositions. Progress on performing 5D neoclassical turbulence simulations will be reported.

Assessment and application of clustering techniques to atmospheric particle number size distribution for the purpose of source apportionment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salimi, F.; Ristovski, Z.; Mazaheri, M.; Laiman, R.; Crilley, L. R.; He, C.; Clifford, S.; Morawska, L.

2014-06-01

Long-term measurements of particle number size distribution (PNSD) produce a very large number of observations and their analysis requires an efficient approach in order to produce results in the least possible time and with maximum accuracy. Clustering techniques are a family of sophisticated methods which have been recently employed to analyse PNSD data, however, very little information is available comparing the performance of different clustering techniques on PNSD data. This study aims to apply several clustering techniques (i.e. K-means, PAM, CLARA and SOM) to PNSD data, in order to identify and apply the optimum technique to PNSD data measured at 25 sites across Brisbane, Australia. A new method, based on the Generalised Additive Model (GAM) with a basis of penalised B-splines, was proposed to parameterise the PNSD data and the temporal weight of each cluster was also estimated using the GAM. In addition, each cluster was associated with its possible source based on the results of this parameterisation, together with the characteristics of each cluster. The performances of four clustering techniques were compared using the Dunn index and silhouette width validation values and the K-means technique was found to have the highest performance, with five clusters being the optimum. Therefore, five clusters were found within the data using the K-means technique. The diurnal occurrence of each cluster was used together with other air quality parameters, temporal trends and the physical properties of each cluster, in order to attribute each cluster to its source and origin. The five clusters were attributed to three major sources and origins, including regional background particles, photochemically induced nucleated particles and vehicle generated particles. Overall, clustering was found to be an effective technique for attributing each particle size spectra to its source and the GAM was suitable to parameterise the PNSD data. These two techniques can help researchers immensely in analysing PNSD data for characterisation and source apportionment purposes.

Assessment and application of clustering techniques to atmospheric particle number size distribution for the purpose of source apportionment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salimi, F.; Ristovski, Z.; Mazaheri, M.; Laiman, R.; Crilley, L. R.; He, C.; Clifford, S.; Morawska, L.

2014-11-01

Long-term measurements of particle number size distribution (PNSD) produce a very large number of observations and their analysis requires an efficient approach in order to produce results in the least possible time and with maximum accuracy. Clustering techniques are a family of sophisticated methods that have been recently employed to analyse PNSD data; however, very little information is available comparing the performance of different clustering techniques on PNSD data. This study aims to apply several clustering techniques (i.e. K means, PAM, CLARA and SOM) to PNSD data, in order to identify and apply the optimum technique to PNSD data measured at 25 sites across Brisbane, Australia. A new method, based on the Generalised Additive Model (GAM) with a basis of penalised B-splines, was proposed to parameterise the PNSD data and the temporal weight of each cluster was also estimated using the GAM. In addition, each cluster was associated with its possible source based on the results of this parameterisation, together with the characteristics of each cluster. The performances of four clustering techniques were compared using the Dunn index and Silhouette width validation values and the K means technique was found to have the highest performance, with five clusters being the optimum. Therefore, five clusters were found within the data using the K means technique. The diurnal occurrence of each cluster was used together with other air quality parameters, temporal trends and the physical properties of each cluster, in order to attribute each cluster to its source and origin. The five clusters were attributed to three major sources and origins, including regional background particles, photochemically induced nucleated particles and vehicle generated particles. Overall, clustering was found to be an effective technique for attributing each particle size spectrum to its source and the GAM was suitable to parameterise the PNSD data. These two techniques can help researchers immensely in analysing PNSD data for characterisation and source apportionment purposes.

Tempest Simulations of Collisionless Damping of the Geodesic-Acoustic Mode in Edge-Plasma Pedestals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, X. Q.; Xiong, Z.; Nevins, W. M.

The fully nonlinear (full-f) four-dimensional TEMPEST gyrokinetic continuum code correctly produces the frequency and collisionless damping of geodesic-acoustic modes (GAMs) and zonal flow, with fully nonlinear Boltzmann electrons for the inverse aspect ratio {epsilon} scan and the tokamak safety factor q scan in homogeneous plasmas. TEMPEST simulations show that the GAMs exist in the edge pedestal for steep density and temperature gradients in the form of outgoing waves. The enhanced GAM damping may explain experimental beam emission spectroscopy measurements on the edge q scaling of the GAM amplitude.

Tempest Simulations of Collisionless Damping of the Geodesic-Acoustic Mode in Edge-Plasma Pedestals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, X. Q.; Xiong, Z.; Gao, Z.; Nevins, W. M.; McKee, G. R.

2008-05-01

The fully nonlinear (full-f) four-dimensional TEMPEST gyrokinetic continuum code correctly produces the frequency and collisionless damping of geodesic-acoustic modes (GAMs) and zonal flow, with fully nonlinear Boltzmann electrons for the inverse aspect ratio γ scan and the tokamak safety factor q scan in homogeneous plasmas. TEMPEST simulations show that the GAMs exist in the edge pedestal for steep density and temperature gradients in the form of outgoing waves. The enhanced GAM damping may explain experimental beam emission spectroscopy measurements on the edge q scaling of the GAM amplitude.

TEMPEST simulations of collisionless damping of the geodesic-acoustic mode in edge-plasma pedestals.

PubMed

Xu, X Q; Xiong, Z; Gao, Z; Nevins, W M; McKee, G R

2008-05-30

The fully nonlinear (full-f) four-dimensional TEMPEST gyrokinetic continuum code correctly produces the frequency and collisionless damping of geodesic-acoustic modes (GAMs) and zonal flow, with fully nonlinear Boltzmann electrons for the inverse aspect ratio scan and the tokamak safety factor q scan in homogeneous plasmas. TEMPEST simulations show that the GAMs exist in the edge pedestal for steep density and temperature gradients in the form of outgoing waves. The enhanced GAM damping may explain experimental beam emission spectroscopy measurements on the edge q scaling of the GAM amplitude.

Landslide susceptibility near highways is increased by one order of magnitude in the Andes of southern Ecuador, Loja province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenning, A.; Schwinn, M.; Ruiz-Páez, A. P.; Muenchow, J.

2014-03-01

Mountain roads in developing countries are known to increase landslide occurrence due to often inadequate drainage systems and mechanical destabilization of hillslopes by undercutting and overloading. This study empirically investigates landslide initiation frequency along two paved interurban highways in the tropical Andes of southern Ecuador across different climatic regimes. Generalized additive models (GAM) and generalized linear models (GLM) were used to analyze the relationship between mapped landslide initiation points and distance to highway while accounting for topographic, climatic and geological predictors as possible confounders. A spatial block bootstrap was used to obtain non-parametric confidence intervals for the odds ratio of landslide occurrence near the highways (25 m distance) compared to a 200 m distance. The estimated odds ratio was 18-21 with lower 95% confidence bounds > 13 in all analyses. Spatial bootstrap estimation using the GAM supports the higher odds ratio estimate of 21.2 (95% confidence interval: 15.5-25.3). The highway-related effects were observed to fade at about 150 m distance. Road effects appear to be enhanced in geological units characterized by Holocene gravels and Laramide andesite/basalt. Overall, landslide susceptibility was found to be more than one order of magnitude higher in close proximity to paved interurban highways in the Andes of southern Ecuador.

Landslide susceptibility near highways is increased by 1 order of magnitude in the Andes of southern Ecuador, Loja province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenning, A.; Schwinn, M.; Ruiz-Páez, A. P.; Muenchow, J.

2015-01-01

Mountain roads in developing countries are known to increase landslide occurrence due to often inadequate drainage systems and mechanical destabilization of hillslopes by undercutting and overloading. This study empirically investigates landslide initiation frequency along two paved interurban highways in the tropical Andes of southern Ecuador across different climatic regimes. Generalized additive models (GAM) and generalized linear models (GLM) were used to analyze the relationship between mapped landslide initiation points and distance to highway while accounting for topographic, climatic, and geological predictors as possible confounders. A spatial block bootstrap was used to obtain nonparametric confidence intervals for the odds ratio of landslide occurrence near the highways (25 m distance) compared to a 200 m distance. The estimated odds ratio was 18-21, with lower 95% confidence bounds >13 in all analyses. Spatial bootstrap estimation using the GAM supports the higher odds ratio estimate of 21.2 (95% confidence interval: 15.5-25.3). The highway-related effects were observed to fade at about 150 m distance. Road effects appear to be enhanced in geological units characterized by Holocene gravels and Laramide andesite/basalt. Overall, landslide susceptibility was found to be more than 1 order of magnitude higher in close proximity to paved interurban highways in the Andes of southern Ecuador.

Low dose radiation risks for women surviving the a-bombs in Japan: generalized additive model.

PubMed

Dropkin, Greg

2016-11-24

Analyses of cancer mortality and incidence in Japanese A-bomb survivors have been used to estimate radiation risks, which are generally higher for women. Relative Risk (RR) is usually modelled as a linear function of dose. Extrapolation from data including high doses predicts small risks at low doses. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) are flexible methods for modelling non-linear behaviour. GAMs are applied to cancer incidence in female low dose subcohorts, using anonymous public data for the 1958 - 1998 Life Span Study, to test for linearity, explore interactions, adjust for the skewed dose distribution, examine significance below 100 mGy, and estimate risks at 10 mGy. For all solid cancer incidence, RR estimated from 0 - 100 mGy and 0 - 20 mGy subcohorts is significantly raised. The response tapers above 150 mGy. At low doses, RR increases with age-at-exposure and decreases with time-since-exposure, the preferred covariate. Using the empirical cumulative distribution of dose improves model fit, and capacity to detect non-linear responses. RR is elevated over wide ranges of covariate values. Results are stable under simulation, or when removing exceptional data cells, or adjusting neutron RBE. Estimates of Excess RR at 10 mGy using the cumulative dose distribution are 10 - 45 times higher than extrapolations from a linear model fitted to the full cohort. Below 100 mGy, quasipoisson models find significant effects for all solid, squamous, uterus, corpus, and thyroid cancers, and for respiratory cancers when age-at-exposure > 35 yrs. Results for the thyroid are compatible with studies of children treated for tinea capitis, and Chernobyl survivors. Results for the uterus are compatible with studies of UK nuclear workers and the Techa River cohort. Non-linear models find large, significant cancer risks for Japanese women exposed to low dose radiation from the atomic bombings. The risks should be reflected in protection standards.

Increased expression of stress inducible protein 1 in glioma-associated microglia/macrophages.

PubMed

Carvalho da Fonseca, Anna Carolina; Wang, Huaqing; Fan, Haitao; Chen, Xuebo; Zhang, Ian; Zhang, Leying; Lima, Flavia Regina Souza; Badie, Behnam

2014-09-15

Factors released by glioma-associated microglia/macrophages (GAMs) play an important role in the growth and infiltration of tumors. We have previously demonstrated that the co-chaperone stress-inducible protein 1 (STI1) secreted by microglia promotes proliferation and migration of human glioblastoma (GBM) cell lines in vitro. In the present study, in order to investigate the role of STI1 in a physiological context, we used a glioma model to evaluate STI1 expression in vivo. Here, we demonstrate that STI1 expression in both the tumor and in the infiltrating GAMs and lymphocytes significantly increased with tumor progression. Interestingly, high expression of STI1 was observed in macrophages and lymphocytes that infiltrated brain tumors, whereas STI1 expression in the circulating blood monocytes and lymphocytes remained unchanged. Our results correlate, for the first time, the expression of STI1 and glioma progression, and suggest that STI1 expression in GAMs and infiltrating lymphocytes is modulated by the brain tumor microenvironment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Increased Expression of Stress Inducible Protein 1 in Glioma-Associated Microglia/Macrophages

PubMed Central

da Fonseca, Anna Carolina Carvalho; Wang, Huaqing; Fan, Haitao; Chen, Xuebo; Zhang, Ian; Zhang, Leying; Lima, Flavia Regina Souza; Badie, Behnam

2014-01-01

Factors released by glioma-associated microglia/macrophages (GAMs) play an important role in the growth and infiltration of tumors. We have previously demonstrated that the co-chaperone stress-inducible protein 1 (STI1) secreted by microglia promotes proliferation and migration of human glioblastoma (GBM) cell lines in vitro. In the present study, in order to investigate the role of STI1 in a physiological context, we used a glioma model to evaluate STI1 expression in vivo. Here, we demonstrate that STI1 expression in both the tumor and in the infiltrating GAMs and lymphocytes significantly increased with tumor progression. Interestingly, high expression of STI1 was observed in macrophages and lymphocytes that infiltrated brain tumors, whereas STI1 expression in the circulating blood monocytes and lymphocytes remained unchanged. Our results correlate, for the first time, the expression of STI1 and glioma progression, and suggest that STI1 expression in GAMs and infiltrating lymphocytes is modulated by the brain tumor microenvironment. PMID:25042352

Effects of Weapons on Aggressive Thoughts, Angry Feelings, Hostile Appraisals, and Aggressive Behavior: A Meta-Analytic Review of the Weapons Effect Literature.

PubMed

Benjamin, Arlin J; Kepes, Sven; Bushman, Brad J

2017-09-01

Guns are associated with aggression. A landmark 1967 study showed that simply seeing a gun can increase aggression-called the "weapons effect." This meta-analysis integrates the findings of weapons effect studies conducted from 1967 to 2017. It includes 162 effect-size estimates from 78 independent studies involving 7,668 participants. The theoretical framework used to explain the weapons effect was the General Aggression Model (GAM), which proposes three routes to aggression-cognitive, affective, and arousal. The GAM also proposes that hostile appraisals can facilitate aggression. As predicted by the GAM, the mere presence of weapons increased aggressive thoughts, hostile appraisals, and aggression, suggesting a cognitive route from weapons to aggression. Weapons did not significantly increase angry feelings. Only one study tested the effects of weapons on arousal. These findings also contribute to the debate about social priming by showing that incidental exposure to a stimulus (weapon) can affect subsequent related behavior (aggression).

Leveraging Past and Current Measurements to Probabilistically Nowcast Low Visibility Procedures at an Airport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayr, G. J.; Kneringer, P.; Dietz, S. J.; Zeileis, A.

2016-12-01

Low visibility or low cloud ceiling reduce the capacity of airports by requiring special low visibility procedures (LVP) for incoming/departing aircraft. Probabilistic forecasts when such procedures will become necessary help to mitigate delays and economic losses.We compare the performance of probabilistic nowcasts with two statistical methods: ordered logistic regression, and trees and random forests. These models harness historic and current meteorological measurements in the vicinity of the airport and LVP states, and incorporate diurnal and seasonal climatological information via generalized additive models (GAM). The methods are applied at Vienna International Airport (Austria). The performance is benchmarked against climatology, persistence and human forecasters.

Hydrological signal in polar motion excitation from a combination of geophysical and gravimetric series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nastula, Jolanta; Winska, Malgorzata; Salstein, David A.

2015-08-01

One can estimate the hydrological signal in polar motion excitation as a residual, namely the difference between observed geodetic excitation functions (Geodetic Angular Momentum, GAM) and the sum of Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) and Oceanic Angular Momentum (OAM).The aim of this study is to find the optimal model and results for hydrological excitation functions in terms of their agreement with the computed difference between GAM and atmospheric and oceanic signals.The atmospheric and oceanic model-based data that we use in this study are the geophysical excitation functions of AAM, OAM available from the Special Bureaus for the Atmosphere and Oceans of the Geophysical Global Fluids Center (GGFC) of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS). For the atmosphere and ocean, these functions are based on the mass and motion fields of the fluids.Global models of land hydrology are used to estimate hydrological excitation functions of polar motion (Hydrological Angular Momentum - HAM). These HAM series are the mass of water substance determined from the various types of land-based hydrological reservoirs. In addition the HAM are estimated from spherical harmonic coefficients of the Earth’s gravity field. We use several sets of degree-2, order-1 harmonics of the Earth’s gravity field, derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR), and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) data.Finally, these several different HAM series are used to determine the best model of hydrological excitation of polar motion. The model is found by looking for the combination of these series that fits the geodetic residuals using the least-square method.In addition, we will access model results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, fifth experiment (CMIP-5) to examine atmospheric excitations from the twentieth century and estimates for the twenty-first century to see the possible signals and trends of these excitation series to help understand the potential range in the derived of hydrological excitation results.

Identification and analysis of Eimeria nieschulzi gametocyte genes reveal splicing events of gam genes and conserved motifs in the wall-forming proteins within the genus Eimeria (Coccidia, Apicomplexa)

PubMed Central

Wiedmer, Stefanie; Erdbeer, Alexander; Volke, Beate; Randel, Stephanie; Kapplusch, Franz; Hanig, Sacha; Kurth, Michael

2017-01-01

The genus Eimeria (Apicomplexa, Coccidia) provides a wide range of different species with different hosts to study common and variable features within the genus and its species. A common characteristic of all known Eimeria species is the oocyst, the infectious stage where its life cycle starts and ends. In our study, we utilized Eimeria nieschulzi as a model organism. This rat-specific parasite has complex oocyst morphology and can be transfected and even cultivated in vitro up to the oocyst stage. We wanted to elucidate how the known oocyst wall-forming proteins are preserved in this rodent Eimeria species compared to other Eimeria. In newly obtained genomics data, we were able to identify different gametocyte genes that are orthologous to already known gam genes involved in the oocyst wall formation of avian Eimeria species. These genes appeared putatively as single exon genes, but cDNA analysis showed alternative splicing events in the transcripts. The analysis of the translated sequence revealed different conserved motifs but also dissimilar regions in GAM proteins, as well as polymorphic regions. The occurrence of an underrepresented gam56 gene version suggests the existence of a second distinct E. nieschulzi genotype within the E. nieschulzi Landers isolate that we maintain. PMID:29210668

Games for health for children—Current status and needed research

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Videogames for health (G4H) offer exciting, innovative, potentially highly effective methods for increasing knowledge, delivering persuasive messages, changing behaviors, and influencing health outcomes. Although early outcome results are promising, additional research is needed to determine the gam...

Serum and tissue concentrations of gallium after oral administration of gallium nitrate and gallium maltolate to neonatal calves.

PubMed

Monk, Caroline S; Sweeney, Raymond W; Bernstein, Lawrence R; Fecteau, Marie-Eve

2016-02-01

To determine serum and tissue concentrations of gallium (Ga) after oral administration of gallium nitrate (GaN) and gallium maltolate (GaM) to neonatal calves. 8 healthy neonatal calves. Calves were assigned to 1 of 2 groups (4 calves/group). Gallium (50 mg/kg) was administered as GaN or GaM (equivalent to 13.15 mg of Ga/kg for GaN and 7.85 mg of Ga/kg for GaM) by oral gavage once daily for 5 days. Blood samples were collected 0, 0.25, 0.5, 1, 2, 4, 8, 12, and 24 hours after Ga administration on day 1; 4 and 24 hours after Ga administration on days 2, 3, and 4; and 4, 12, and 24 hours after Ga administration on day 5. On day 6, calves were euthanized and tissue samples were obtained. Serum and tissue Ga concentrations were measured by use of mass spectrometry. Data were adjusted for total Ga dose, and comparisons were made between the 2 groups. Calves receiving GaM had a significantly higher dose-adjusted area under the curve and dose-adjusted maximum serum Ga concentration than did calves receiving GaN. Despite receiving less Ga per dose, calves receiving GaM had tissue Ga concentrations similar to those for calves receiving GaN. In this study, calves receiving GaM had significantly higher Ga absorption than did calves receiving GaN. These findings suggested that GaM might be useful as a prophylactic agent against Mycobacterium avium subsp paratuberculosis infection in neonatal calves.

Managing global accounts.

PubMed

Yip, George S; Bink, Audrey J M

2007-09-01

Global account management--which treats a multinational customer's operations as one integrated account, with coherent terms for pricing, product specifications, and service--has proliferated over the past decade. Yet according to the authors' research, only about a third of the suppliers that have offered GAM are pleased with the results. The unhappy majority may be suffering from confusion about when, how, and to whom to provide it. Yip, the director of research and innovation at Capgemini, and Bink, the head of marketing communications at Uxbridge College, have found that GAM can improve customer satisfaction by 20% or more and can raise both profits and revenues by at least 15% within just a few years of its introduction. They provide guidelines to help companies achieve similar results. The first steps are determining whether your products or services are appropriate for GAM, whether your customers want such a program, whether those customers are crucial to your strategy, and how GAM might affect your competitive advantage. If moving forward makes sense, the authors' exhibit, "A Scorecard for Selecting Global Accounts," can help you target the right customers. The final step is deciding which of three basic forms to offer: coordination GAM (in which national operations remain relatively strong), control GAM (in which the global operation and the national operations are fairly balanced), and separate GAM (in which a new business unit has total responsibility for global accounts). Given the difficulty and expense of providing multiple varieties, the vast majority of companies should initially customize just one---and they should be careful not to start with a choice that is too ambitious for either themselves or their customers to handle.

Mixtures of GAMs for habitat suitability analysis with overdispersed presence / absence data

PubMed Central

Pleydell, David R.J.; Chrétien, Stéphane

2009-01-01

A new approach to species distribution modelling based on unsupervised classification via a finite mixture of GAMs incorporating habitat suitability curves is proposed. A tailored EM algorithm is outlined for computing maximum likelihood estimates. Several submodels incorporating various parameter constraints are explored. Simulation studies confirm, that under certain constraints, the habitat suitability curves are recovered with good precision. The method is also applied to a set of real data concerning presence/absence of observable small mammal indices collected on the Tibetan plateau. The resulting classification was found to correspond to species-level differences in habitat preference described in previous ecological work. PMID:20401331

An Interactive Tool For Semi-automated Statistical Prediction Using Earth Observations and Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaitchik, B. F.; Berhane, F.; Tadesse, T.

2015-12-01

We developed a semi-automated statistical prediction tool applicable to concurrent analysis or seasonal prediction of any time series variable in any geographic location. The tool was developed using Shiny, JavaScript, HTML and CSS. A user can extract a predictand by drawing a polygon over a region of interest on the provided user interface (global map). The user can select the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) precipitation or Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) as predictand. They can also upload their own predictand time series. Predictors can be extracted from sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, winds at different pressure levels, air temperature at various pressure levels, and geopotential height at different pressure levels. By default, reanalysis fields are applied as predictors, but the user can also upload their own predictors, including a wide range of compatible satellite-derived datasets. The package generates correlations of the variables selected with the predictand. The user also has the option to generate composites of the variables based on the predictand. Next, the user can extract predictors by drawing polygons over the regions that show strong correlations (composites). Then, the user can select some or all of the statistical prediction models provided. Provided models include Linear Regression models (GLM, SGLM), Tree-based models (bagging, random forest, boosting), Artificial Neural Network, and other non-linear models such as Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). Finally, the user can download the analysis steps they used, such as the region they selected, the time period they specified, the predictand and predictors they chose and preprocessing options they used, and the model results in PDF or HTML format. Key words: Semi-automated prediction, Shiny, R, GLM, ANN, RF, GAM, MARS

gamAID: Greedy CP tensor decomposition for supervised EHR-based disease trajectory differentiation.

PubMed

Henderson, Jette; Ho, Joyce; Ghosh, Joydeep

2017-07-01

We propose gamAID, an exploratory, supervised nonnegative tensor factorization method that iteratively extracts phenotypes from tensors constructed from medical count data. Using data from diabetic patients who later on get diagnosed with chronic kidney disorder (CKD) as well as diabetic patients who do not receive a CKD diagnosis, we demonstrate the potential of gamAID to discover phenotypes that characterize patients who are at risk for developing a disease.

Mean and oscillating plasma flows and turbulence interactions across the L-H confinement transition.

PubMed

Conway, G D; Angioni, C; Ryter, F; Sauter, P; Vicente, J

2011-02-11

A complex interaction between turbulence driven E × B zonal flow oscillations, i.e., geodesic acoustic modes (GAMs), the turbulence, and mean equilibrium flows is observed during the low to high (L-H) plasma confinement mode transition in the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak. Below the L-H threshold at low densities a limit-cycle oscillation forms with competition between the turbulence level and the GAM flow shearing. At higher densities the cycle is diminished, while in the H mode the cycle duration becomes too short to sustain the GAM, which is replaced by large amplitude broadband flow perturbations. Initially GAM amplitude increases as the H-mode transition is approached, but is then suppressed in the H mode by enhanced mean flow shear.

Do walleye pollock exhibit flexibility in where or when they spawn based on variability in water temperature?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacheler, Nathan M.; Ciannelli, Lorenzo; Bailey, Kevin M.; Bartolino, Valerio

2012-06-01

Environmental variability is increasingly recognized as a primary determinant of year-class strength of marine fishes by directly or indirectly influencing egg and larval development, growth, and survival. Here we examined the role of annual water temperature variability in determining when and where walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) spawn in the eastern Bering Sea. Walleye pollock spawning was examined using both long-term ichthyoplankton data (N=19 years), as well as with historical spatially explicit, foreign-reported, commercial catch data occurring during the primary walleye pollock spawning season (February-May) each year (N=22 years in total). We constructed variable-coefficient generalized additive models (GAMs) to relate the spatially explicit egg or adult catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) to predictor variables including spawning stock biomass, season, position, and water temperature. The adjusted R2 value was 63.1% for the egg CPUE model and 35.5% for the adult CPUE model. Both egg and adult GAMs suggest that spawning progresses seasonally from Bogoslof Island in February and March to Outer Domain waters between the Pribilof and Unimak Islands by May. Most importantly, walleye pollock egg and adult CPUE was predicted to generally increase throughout the study area as mean annual water temperature increased. These results suggest low interannual variability in the spatial and temporal dynamics of walleye pollock spawning regardless of changes in environmental conditions, at least at the spatial scale examined in this study and within the time frame of decades.

Recreation-induced changes in boreal bird communities in protected areas.

PubMed

Kangas, K; Luoto, M; Ihantola, A; Tomppo, E; Siikamäki, P

2010-09-01

The impacts of human-induced disturbance on birds have been studied in growing extent, but there are relatively few studies about the effects of recreation on forest bird communities in protected areas. In this paper, the relative importance of recreation as well as environmental variables on bird communities in Oulanka National Park, in northeastern Finland, was investigated using general additive models (GAM). Bird data collected using the line transect method along hiking trails and in undisturbed control areas were related to number of visits, area of tourism infrastructure, and habitat variables. We further examined the impact of spatial autocorrelation by calculating an autocovariate term for GAMs. Our results indicate that number of visits affects the occurrence and composition of bird communities, but it had no impact on total species richness. Open-cup nesters breeding on the ground showed strongest negative response to visitor pressure, whereas the open-cup nesters nesting in trees and shrubs were more tolerant. For cavity-nesting species, recreation had no significant impact. The contribution of the number of visits was generally low also in models in which it was selected, and the occurrence of birds was mainly determined by habitat characteristics of the area. However, our results show that the recreation-induced disturbance with relatively low visitor pressure can have negative impacts on some bird species and groups of species and should be considered in management of protected areas with recreational activities.

Efficacy of a DNA vaccine carrying Eimeria maxima Gam56 antigen gene against coccidiosis in chickens.

PubMed

Xu, Jinjun; Zhang, Yan; Tao, Jianping

2013-04-01

To control coccidiosis without using prophylactic medications, a DNA vaccine targeting the gametophyte antigen Gam56 from Eimeria maxima in chickens was constructed, and the immunogenicity and protective effects were evaluated. The ORF of Gam56 gene was cloned into an eukaryotic expression vector pcDNA3.1(zeo)+. Expression of Gam56 protein in COS-7 cells transfected with recombinant plasmid pcDNA-Gam56 was confirmed by indirect immunofluorescence assay. The DNA vaccine was injected intramuscularly to yellow feathered broilers of 1-week old at 3 dosages (25, 50, and 100 µg/chick). Injection was repeated once 1 week later. One week after the second injection, birds were challenged orally with 5×10(4) sporulated oocysts of E. maxima, then weighed and killed at day 8 post challenge. Blood samples were collected and examined for specific peripheral blood lymphocyte proliferation activity and serum antibody levels. Compared with control groups, the administration of pcDNA-Gam56 vaccine markedly increased the lymphocyte proliferation activity (P<0.05) at day 7 and 14 after the first immunization. The level of lymphocyte proliferation started to decrease on day 21 after the first immunization. A similar trend was seen in specific antibody levels. Among the 3 pcDNA-Gam56 immunized groups, the median dosage group displayed the highest lymphocyte proliferation and antibody levels (P<0.05). The median dosage group had the greatest relative body weight gain (89.7%), and the greatest oocyst shedding reduction (53.7%). These results indicate that median dosage of DNA vaccine had good immunogenicity and immune protection effects, and may be used in field applications for coccidiosis control.

Efficacy of a DNA Vaccine Carrying Eimeria maxima Gam56 Antigen Gene against Coccidiosis in Chickens

PubMed Central

Xu, Jinjun; Zhang, Yan

2013-01-01

To control coccidiosis without using prophylactic medications, a DNA vaccine targeting the gametophyte antigen Gam56 from Eimeria maxima in chickens was constructed, and the immunogenicity and protective effects were evaluated. The ORF of Gam56 gene was cloned into an eukaryotic expression vector pcDNA3.1(zeo)+. Expression of Gam56 protein in COS-7 cells transfected with recombinant plasmid pcDNA-Gam56 was confirmed by indirect immunofluorescence assay. The DNA vaccine was injected intramuscularly to yellow feathered broilers of 1-week old at 3 dosages (25, 50, and 100 µg/chick). Injection was repeated once 1 week later. One week after the second injection, birds were challenged orally with 5×104 sporulated oocysts of E. maxima, then weighed and killed at day 8 post challenge. Blood samples were collected and examined for specific peripheral blood lymphocyte proliferation activity and serum antibody levels. Compared with control groups, the administration of pcDNA-Gam56 vaccine markedly increased the lymphocyte proliferation activity (P<0.05) at day 7 and 14 after the first immunization. The level of lymphocyte proliferation started to decrease on day 21 after the first immunization. A similar trend was seen in specific antibody levels. Among the 3 pcDNA-Gam56 immunized groups, the median dosage group displayed the highest lymphocyte proliferation and antibody levels (P<0.05). The median dosage group had the greatest relative body weight gain (89.7%), and the greatest oocyst shedding reduction (53.7%). These results indicate that median dosage of DNA vaccine had good immunogenicity and immune protection effects, and may be used in field applications for coccidiosis control. PMID:23710081

Gallium Maltolate Disrupts Tumor Iron Metabolism and Retards the Growth of Glioblastoma by Inhibiting Mitochondrial Function and Ribonucleotide Reductase.

PubMed

Chitambar, Christopher R; Al-Gizawiy, Mona M; Alhajala, Hisham S; Pechman, Kimberly R; Wereley, Janine P; Wujek, Robert; Clark, Paul A; Kuo, John S; Antholine, William E; Schmainda, Kathleen M

2018-06-01

Gallium, a metal with antineoplastic activity, binds transferrin (Tf) and enters tumor cells via Tf receptor1 (TfR1); it disrupts iron homeostasis leading to cell death. We hypothesized that TfR1 on brain microvascular endothelial cells (BMEC) would facilitate Tf-Ga transport into the brain enabling it to target TfR-bearing glioblastoma. We show that U-87 MG and D54 glioblastoma cell lines and multiple glioblastoma stem cell (GSC) lines express TfRs, and that their growth is inhibited by gallium maltolate (GaM) in vitro After 24 hours of incubation with GaM, cells displayed a loss of mitochondrial reserve capacity followed by a dose-dependent decrease in oxygen consumption and a decrease in the activity of the iron-dependent M2 subunit of ribonucleotide reductase (RRM2). IHC staining of rat and human tumor-bearing brains showed that glioblastoma, but not normal glial cells, expressed TfR1 and RRM2, and that glioblastoma expressed greater levels of H- and L-ferritin than normal brain. In an orthotopic U-87 MG glioblastoma xenograft rat model, GaM retarded the growth of brain tumors relative to untreated control ( P = 0.0159) and reduced tumor mitotic figures ( P = 0.045). Tumors in GaM-treated animals displayed an upregulation of TfR1 expression relative to control animals, thus indicating that gallium produced tumor iron deprivation. GaM also inhibited iron uptake and upregulated TfR1 expression in U-87 MG and D54 cells in vitro We conclude that GaM enters the brain via TfR1 on BMECs and targets iron metabolism in glioblastoma in vivo, thus inhibiting tumor growth. Further development of novel gallium compounds for brain tumor treatment is warranted. Mol Cancer Ther; 17(6); 1240-50. ©2018 AACR . ©2018 American Association for Cancer Research.

Comparison of the hydrological excitation functions HAM of polar motion for the period 1980.0-2007.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nastula, J.; Pasnicka, M.; Kolaczek, B.

2011-10-01

In this study we compared contributions of polar motion excitation determined from hydrological models and harmonic coefficients of the Earth gravity field obtained from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). Hydrological excitation function (hydrological angular momentum - HAM) has been estimated from models of global hydrology, based on the observed distribution of surface water, snow, ice and soil moisture. All of them were compared with observed Geodetic Angular Momentum (GAM), excitations of polar motion. The spectra of these excitation functions of polar motion and residual geodetic excitation function G-A-O obtained from GAM by elimination of atmospheric and oceanic excitation functions were computed too. Phasor diagrams of the seasonal components of the polar motion excitation functions of all HAM excitation functions as well as of two GRACE solutions: CSR, CNES were determined and discussed.

Association of circulating branched-chain amino acids with cardiometabolic traits differs between adults and the oldest-old.

PubMed

Sun, Liang; Hu, Caiyou; Yang, Ruiyue; Lv, Yuan; Yuan, Huiping; Liang, Qinghua; He, Benjin; Pang, Guofang; Jiang, Menghua; Dong, Jun; Yang, Ze

2017-10-24

Branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) are promising for their potential anti-aging effects. However, findings in adults suggest that circulating BCAAs are associated with cardiometabolic risk. Moreover, little information is available about how BCAAs influence clustered cardiometabolic traits in the oldest-old (>85 years), which are the fastest-growing segment of the population in developed countries. Here, we applied a targeted metabolomics approach to measure serum BCAAs in Chinese participants (aged 21-110 years) based on a longevity cohort. The differences of quantitative and dichotomous cardiometabolic traits were compared across BCAAs tertiles. A generalized additive model (GAM) was used to explore the dose-response relationship between BCAAs and the risk of metabolic syndrome (MetS). Overall, BCAAs were correlated with most of the examined cardiometabolic traits. The odds ratios for MetS across the increasing BCAA tertiles were 3.22 (1.70 - 6.12) and 5.27 (2.88 - 9.94, referenced to tertile 1) after adjusting for age and gender ( P trend < 0.001). The association still existed after further controlling for lifestyle factors and inflammation factors. However, the correlations between circulating BCAAs and quantitative traits were weakened in the oldest-old, except for lipids, the levels of which were distinctly different from those in adults. The stratified analysis also suggested that the risky BCAAs-MetS association was more pronounced in adults than in the oldest-old. Moreover, generalized additive model (GAM)-based curve-fitting suggested that only when BCAAs exceeded a threshold (approximately 450 μmol/L) was the BCAAs-MetS association significant. The relationship might be aging-dependent and was more pronounced in adults than in the oldest-old.

Comparison of the antimicrobial activities of gallium nitrate and gallium maltolate against Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in vitro.

PubMed

Fecteau, Marie-Eve; Aceto, Helen W; Bernstein, Lawrence R; Sweeney, Raymond W

2014-10-01

Johne's disease (JD) is an enteric infection of cattle and other ruminants caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). This study compared the antimicrobial activities of gallium nitrate (GaN) and gallium maltolate (GaM) against two field MAP isolates by use of broth culture. The concentrations that resulted in 99% growth inhibition of isolates 1 and 2 were, respectively, 636 µM and 183 µM for GaN, and 251 µM and 142 µM for GaM. For both isolates, time to detection was significantly higher for GaM than GaN. These results suggest that GaM is more efficient than GaN in inhibiting MAP growth in vitro. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enhanced release and drug delivery of celecoxib into physiological environment by the different types of nanoscale vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khazraei, Avideh; Tarlani, Aliakbar; Naderi, Nima; Muzart, Jacques; Abdulhameed (Kaabi), Zahra; Eslami-Moghadam, Mahbube

2017-11-01

Celecoxib (CEL) as the very low water soluble drug was loaded 16 and 50% (w/w) through an impregnation method on varieties of alumina nanostructures such as synthetic sol-gel γ-alumina (Gam-Al), functionalized sol-gel γ-alumina (Gam-Al-NH2), organized nano porous alumina (Onp-Al) and then the results compared with commercial alumina (Com-Al) and SBA-15 (SBA). Analyses of the samples were carried out by FT-IR, X-ray diffraction (XRD) and N2-sorption. in vitro studies were accomplished in simulated body fluid (SBF), simulated gastric fluid (SGF) and simulated intestinal fluid (SIF). In vivo study was carried out on male wistar rats under standard conditions. The N2-sorption revealed the initial pore characteristics of the nanocarriers. XRD patterns showed that the 50% loaded samples contain bulk celecoxib and its solubility in body fluids is lower than that of 16% loaded samples. In the case of 16% loaded samples, the drug solubility in three simulated body fluids drug was found to decrease in the following order: Gam-Al-CEL > Onp-Al-CEL > Com-Al-CEL > SBA-CEL. Gam-Al-CEL showed the highest release (96%) in SBF after 60 min in vivo study showed significant decrease in pain score in rats for Gam-Al-NH2-CEL-16% and Gam-Al-CEL-50%. It could be concluded that the synthetic aluminas have a developing future potential compared to the formal SBA and commercial alumina.

Axisymmetric electrostatic magnetohydrodynamic oscillations in tokamaks with general cross-sections and toroidal flow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chu, M. S.; Guo, Wenfeng

2016-06-15

The frequency spectrum and mode structure of axisymmetric electrostatic oscillations [the zonal flow (ZF), sound waves (SW), geodesic acoustic modes (GAM), and electrostatic mean flows (EMF)] in tokamaks with general cross-sections and toroidal flows are studied analytically using the electrostatic approximation for magnetohydrodynamic modes. These modes constitute the “electrostatic continua.” Starting from the energy principle for a tokamak plasma with toroidal rotation, we showed that these modes are completely stable. The ZF, the SW, and the EMF could all be viewed as special cases of the general GAM. The Euler equations for the general GAM are obtained and are solvedmore » analytically for both the low and high range of Mach numbers. The solution consists of the usual countable infinite set of eigen-modes with discrete eigen-frequencies, and two modes with lower frequencies. The countable infinite set is identified with the regular GAM. The lower frequency mode, which is also divergence free as the plasma rotation tends to zero, is identified as the ZF. The other lower (zero) frequency mode is a pure geodesic E×B flow and not divergence free is identified as the EMF. The frequency of the EMF is shown to be exactly 0 independent of plasma cross-section or its flow Mach number. We also show that in general, sound waves with no geodesic components are (almost) completely lost in tokamaks with a general cross-sectional shape. The exception is the special case of strict up-down symmetry. In this case, half of the GAMs would have no geodesic displacements. They are identified as the SW. Present day tokamaks, although not strictly up-down symmetric, usually are only slightly up-down asymmetric. They are expected to share the property with the up-down symmetric tokamak in that half of the GAMs would be more sound wave-like, i.e., have much weaker coupling to the geodesic components than the other half of non-sound-wave-like modes with stronger coupling to the geodesic displacements. Based on the general notion that the geodesic component of the GAM is more effective in tearing up the eddies in the electrostatic turbulence, it is important to preferentially excite the GAMs that are non-sound-wave like to maximize the efficiency on turbulence suppression through external means. Finally, approximate formulae for the frequencies of the EMF, ZF, SW, and the GAM for a large aspect ratio circular tokamak rotating at low Mach numbers are also provided.« less

Changing spousal roles and their effect on recovery in gamblers anonymous: GamAnon, social support, wives and husbands.

PubMed

Ferentzy, Peter; Skinner, Wayne; Antze, Paul

2010-09-01

This paper examines changing spousal roles and their effects upon recovery in Gamblers Anonymous (GA). It is based upon a qualitative study designed to gage uniformity as well as variations in approaches to recovery in GA. Interviews were conducted with 39 GA members (26 men, 13 women; mean age 56.5 years). Though the study was based in the Toronto area, only 13 interviews involved participants from that region. Phone interviews were conducted with GA members from various regions of both Canada and the US. GamAnon, GA's sister fellowship, has been designed for anyone affected seriously by someone's gambling problem. In practice, GamAnon comprises mostly women--spouses of male GA members--who traditionally have taken a keen interest in the ways in which their husbands achieve and maintain abstinence from gambling. Changing spousal roles have led to fewer women joining GamAnon, as many opt instead to part with troubled spouses. As well, more women are attending GA than in the past, typically with husbands who are disinclined to join GamAnon. All of this has drastically altered how GA members pursue recovery. These changes and their implications are discussed.

Modelling the ecological consequences of whole tree harvest for bioenergy production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skår, Silje; Lange, Holger; Sogn, Trine

2013-04-01

There is an increasing demand for energy from biomass as a substitute to fossil fuels worldwide, and the Norwegian government plans to double the production of bioenergy to 9% of the national energy production or to 28 TWh per year by 2020. A large part of this increase may come from forests, which have a great potential with respect to biomass supply as forest growth increasingly has exceeded harvest in the last decades. One feasible option is the utilization of forest residues (needles, twigs and branches) in addition to stems, known as Whole Tree Harvest (WTH). As opposed to WTH, the residues are traditionally left in the forest with Conventional Timber Harvesting (CH). However, the residues contain a large share of the treés nutrients, indicating that WTH may possibly alter the supply of nutrients and organic matter to the soil and the forest ecosystem. This may potentially lead to reduced tree growth. Other implications can be nutrient imbalance, loss of carbon from the soil and changes in species composition and diversity. This study aims to identify key factors and appropriate strategies for ecologically sustainable WTH in Norway spruce (Picea abies) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) forest stands in Norway. We focus on identifying key factors driving soil organic matter, nutrients, biomass, biodiversity etc. Simulations of the effect on the carbon and nitrogen budget with the two harvesting methods will also be conducted. Data from field trials and long-term manipulation experiments are used to obtain a first overview of key variables. The relationships between the variables are hitherto unknown, but it is by no means obvious that they could be assumed as linear; thus, an ordinary multiple linear regression approach is expected to be insufficient. Here we apply two advanced and highly flexible modelling frameworks which hardly have been used in the context of tree growth, nutrient balances and biomass removal so far: Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and Random Forests. Results obtained for GAMs so far show that there are differences between WTH and CH in two directions: both the significance of drivers and the shape of the response functions differ. GAMs turn out to be a flexible and powerful alternative to multivariate linear regression. The restriction to linear relationships seems to be unjustified in the present case. We use Random Forests as a highly efficient classifier which gives reliable estimates for the importance of each driver variable in determining the diameter growth for the two different harvesting treatments. Based on the final results of these two modelling approaches, the study contributes to find appropriate strategies and suitable regions (in Norway) where WTH may be sustainable performed.

Solar radiation increases suicide rate after adjusting for other climate factors in South Korea.

PubMed

Jee, Hee-Jung; Cho, Chul-Hyun; Lee, Yu Jin; Choi, Nari; An, Hyonggin; Lee, Heon-Jeong

2017-03-01

Previous studies have indicated that suicide rates have significant seasonal variations. There is seasonal discordance between temperature and solar radiation due to the monsoon season in South Korea. We investigated the seasonality of suicide and assessed its association with climate variables in South Korea. Suicide rates were obtained from the National Statistical Office of South Korea, and climatic data were obtained from the Korea Meteorological Administration for the period of 1992-2010. We conducted analyses using a generalized additive model (GAM). First, we explored the seasonality of suicide and climate variables such as mean temperature, daily temperature range, solar radiation, and relative humidity. Next, we identified confounding climate variables associated with suicide rate. To estimate the adjusted effect of solar radiation on the suicide rate, we investigated the confounding variables using a multivariable GAM. Suicide rate showed seasonality with a pattern similar to that of solar radiation. We found that the suicide rate increased 1.008 times when solar radiation increased by 1 MJ/m 2 after adjusting for other confounding climate factors (P < 0.001). Solar radiation has a significant linear relationship with suicide after adjusting for region, other climate variables, and time trends. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of oceanographic factors on spatial distribution of Whale Shark in Cendrawasih Bay National Park, West Papua

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranintyari, Maulida; Sunarto; Syamsuddin, Mega L.; Astuty, Sri

2018-05-01

Whale sharks are a leading species in Cendrawasih Bay due to its benign nature and its regular appearance. Recently, whale sharks are vulnerable to scarcity and even extinction. One of the efforts to maintain the existence of the whale shark population is by knowing its spatial distribution. This study aims to analyze how the oceanographic factors affect the spatial distribution of whale sharks in Cendrawasih Bay National Park. The method used in this research is descriptive with the quantitative approach using the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) analysis. The data consisted of the whale shark monitoring data in TNTC taken by WWF-Indonesia, and image data of sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a concentration of Aqua-MODIS, and also sea surface current from Aviso. Analyses were conducted for the period of January 2012 until March 2015. The GAM result indicated that sea surface current was better than the other environment (SST and chlorophyll-a concentration) as an oceanographic predictor of whale shark appearance. High probabilities of the whale shark’s to appear on the surface were observed in sea surface current velocities between 0.30-0.60 m/s, for SST ranged from 30.50-31.80 °C, and for chlorophyll-a concentration ranged from 0.20-0.40 mg/m3.

GAMS5

PubMed Central

Doll, C.; Börner, H. G.; von Egidy, T.; Fujimoto, H.; Jentschel, M.; Lehmann, H.

2000-01-01

The construction of the double-crystal γ-spectrometer GAMS5 was finished recently and the instrument is now operational. Measurements with double flat crystals were carried out and we will report here on the progress concerning the characteristics of the spectrometer. PMID:27551603

Risk Based Framework for Geotechnical Asset Management

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-12-28

This report presents the outcome from a multi-year research study to incorporate a risk management framework for the Alaska Department of Transportation & Public Facilities Geotechnical Asset Management (GAM) Plan. The GAM Plan was developed by Paul ...

Conservation of proteins involved in oocyst wall formation in Eimeria maxima, Eimeria tenella and Eimeria acervulina

PubMed Central

Belli, Sabina I.; Ferguson, David J.P.; Katrib, Marilyn; Slapetova, Iveta; Mai, Kelly; Slapeta, Jan; Flowers, Sarah A.; Miska, Kate B.; Tomley, Fiona M.; Shirley, Martin W.; Wallach, Michael G.; Smith, Nicholas C.

2009-01-01

Vaccination with proteins from gametocytes of Eimeria maxima protects chickens, via transfer of maternal antibodies, against infection with several species of Eimeria. Antibodies to E. maxima gametocyte proteins recognise proteins in the wall forming bodies of macrogametocytes and oocyst walls of E. maxima, Eimeria tenella and Eimeria acervulina. Homologous genes for two major gametocyte proteins – GAM56 and GAM82 – were found in E. maxima, E. tenella and E. acervulina. Alignment of the predicted protein sequences of these genes reveals that, as well as sharing regions of tyrosine richness, strong homology exists in their amino-terminal regions, where protective antibodies bind. This study confirms the conservation of the roles of GAM56 and GAM82 in oocyst wall formation and shows that antibodies to gametocyte antigens of E. maxima cross-react with homologous proteins in other species, helping to explain cross-species maternal immunity. PMID:19477178

Interannual and seasonal variability of winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid abundance in the Northwest Pacific Ocean during 1995-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Wei; Chen, Xinjun; Yi, Qian

2016-06-01

The neon flying squid, Ommastrephes bartramii, is a species of economically important cephalopod in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Its short lifespan increases the susceptibility of the distribution and abundance to the direct impact of the environmental conditions. Based on the generalized linear model (GLM) and generalized additive model (GAM), the commercial fishery data from the Chinese squid-jigging fleets during 1995 to 2011 were used to examine the interannual and seasonal variability in the abundance of O. bartramii, and to evaluate the influences of variables on the abundance (catch per unit effort, CPUE). The results from GLM suggested that year, month, latitude, sea surface temperature (SST), mixed layer depth (MLD), and the interaction term ( SST×MLD) were significant factors. The optimal model based on GAM included all the six significant variables and could explain 42.43% of the variance in nominal CPUE. The importance of the six variables was ranked by decreasing magnitude: year, month, latitude, SST, MLD and SST×MLD. The squid was mainly distributed in the waters between 40°N and 44°N in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The optimal ranges of SST and MLD were from 14 to 20°C and from 10 to 30 m, respectively. The squid abundance greatly fluctuated from 1995 to 2011. The CPUE was low during 1995-2002 and high during 2003-2008. Furthermore, the squid abundance was typically high in August. The interannual and seasonal variabilities in the squid abundance were associated with the variations of marine environmental conditions and the life history characteristics of squid.

Inter-annual variability of North Sea plaice spawning habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loots, C.; Vaz, S.; Koubbi, P.; Planque, B.; Coppin, F.; Verin, Y.

2010-11-01

Potential spawning habitat is defined as the area where environmental conditions are suitable for spawning to occur. Spawning adult data from the first quarter (January-March) of the International Bottom Trawl Survey have been used to study the inter-annual variability of the potential spawning habitat of North Sea plaice from 1980 to 2007. Generalised additive models (GAM) were used to create a model that related five environmental variables (depth, bottom temperature and salinity, seabed stress and sediment type) to presence-absence and abundance of spawning adults. Then, the habitat model was applied each year from 1970 to 2007 to predict inter-annual variability of the potential spawning habitat. Predicted responses obtained by GAM for each year were mapped using kriging. A hierarchical classification associated with a correspondence analysis was performed to cluster spawning suitable areas and to determine how they evolved across years. The potential spawning habitat was consistent with historical spawning ground locations described in the literature from eggs surveys. It was also found that the potential spawning habitat varied across years. Suitable areas were located in the southern part of the North Sea and along the eastern coast of England and Scotland in the eighties; they expanded further north from the nineties. Annual survey distributions did not show such northward expansion and remained located in the southern North Sea. This suggests that this species' actual spatial distribution remains stable against changing environmental conditions, and that the potential spawning habitat is not fully occupied. Changes in environmental conditions appear to remain within plaice environmental ranges, meaning that other factors may control the spatial distribution of plaice spawning habitat.

Description and Evaluation of Numerical Groundwater Flow Models for the Edwards Aquifer, South-Central Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindgren, Richard J.; Taylor, Charles J.; Houston, Natalie A.

2009-01-01

A substantial number of public water system wells in south-central Texas withdraw groundwater from the karstic, highly productive Edwards aquifer. However, the use of numerical groundwater flow models to aid in the delineation of contributing areas for public water system wells in the Edwards aquifer is problematic because of the complex hydrogeologic framework and the presence of conduit-dominated flow paths in the aquifer. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, evaluated six published numerical groundwater flow models (all deterministic) that have been developed for the Edwards aquifer San Antonio segment or Barton Springs segment, or both. This report describes the models developed and evaluates each with respect to accessibility and ease of use, range of conditions simulated, accuracy of simulations, agreement with dye-tracer tests, and limitations of the models. These models are (1) GWSIM model of the San Antonio segment, a FORTRAN computer-model code that pre-dates the development of MODFLOW; (2) MODFLOW conduit-flow model of San Antonio and Barton Springs segments; (3) MODFLOW diffuse-flow model of San Antonio and Barton Springs segments; (4) MODFLOW Groundwater Availability Modeling [GAM] model of the Barton Springs segment; (5) MODFLOW recalibrated GAM model of the Barton Springs segment; and (6) MODFLOW-DCM (dual conductivity model) conduit model of the Barton Springs segment. The GWSIM model code is not commercially available, is limited in its application to the San Antonio segment of the Edwards aquifer, and lacks the ability of MODFLOW to easily incorporate newly developed processes and packages to better simulate hydrologic processes. MODFLOW is a widely used and tested code for numerical modeling of groundwater flow, is well documented, and is in the public domain. These attributes make MODFLOW a preferred code with regard to accessibility and ease of use. The MODFLOW conduit-flow model incorporates improvements over previous models by using (1) a user-friendly interface, (2) updated computer codes (MODFLOW-96 and MODFLOW-2000), (3) a finer grid resolution, (4) less-restrictive boundary conditions, (5) an improved discretization of hydraulic conductivity, (6) more accurate estimates of pumping stresses, (7) a long transient simulation period (54 years, 1947-2000), and (8) a refined representation of high-permeability zones or conduits. All of the models except the MODFLOW-DCM conduit model have limitations resulting from the use of Darcy's law to simulate groundwater flow in a karst aquifer system where non-Darcian, turbulent flow might actually dominate. The MODFLOW-DCM conduit model is an improvement in the ability to simulate karst-like flow conditions in conjunction with porous-media-type matrix flow. However, the MODFLOW-DCM conduit model has had limited application and testing and currently (2008) lacks commercially available pre- and post-processors. The MODFLOW conduit-flow and diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer models are limited by the lack of calibration for the northern part of the Barton Springs segment (Travis County) and their reliance on the use of the calibrated hydraulic conductivity and storativity values from the calibrated Barton Springs segment GAM model. The major limitation of the Barton Springs segment GAM and recalibrated GAM models is that they were calibrated to match measured water levels and springflows for a restrictive range of hydrologic conditions, with each model having different hydraulic conductivity and storativity values appropriate to the hydrologic conditions that were simulated. The need for two different sets of hydraulic conductivity and storativity values increases the uncertainty associated with the accuracy of either set of values, illustrates the non-uniqueness of the model solution, and probably most importantly demonstrates the limitations of using a one-layer model to represent the heterogeneous hydrostratigraph

A systematic review of methodology: time series regression analysis for environmental factors and infectious diseases.

PubMed

Imai, Chisato; Hashizume, Masahiro

2015-03-01

Time series analysis is suitable for investigations of relatively direct and short-term effects of exposures on outcomes. In environmental epidemiology studies, this method has been one of the standard approaches to assess impacts of environmental factors on acute non-infectious diseases (e.g. cardiovascular deaths), with conventionally generalized linear or additive models (GLM and GAM). However, the same analysis practices are often observed with infectious diseases despite of the substantial differences from non-infectious diseases that may result in analytical challenges. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines, systematic review was conducted to elucidate important issues in assessing the associations between environmental factors and infectious diseases using time series analysis with GLM and GAM. Published studies on the associations between weather factors and malaria, cholera, dengue, and influenza were targeted. Our review raised issues regarding the estimation of susceptible population and exposure lag times, the adequacy of seasonal adjustments, the presence of strong autocorrelations, and the lack of a smaller observation time unit of outcomes (i.e. daily data). These concerns may be attributable to features specific to infectious diseases, such as transmission among individuals and complicated causal mechanisms. The consequence of not taking adequate measures to address these issues is distortion of the appropriate risk quantifications of exposures factors. Future studies should pay careful attention to details and examine alternative models or methods that improve studies using time series regression analysis for environmental determinants of infectious diseases.

Game theoretic power allocation and waveform selection for satellite communications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu, Zhihui; Wang, Gang; Tian, Xin; Shen, Dan; Pham, Khanh; Blasch, Erik; Chen, Genshe

2015-05-01

Game theory is a useful method to model interactions between agents with conflicting interests. In this paper, we set up a Game Theoretic Model for Satellite Communications (SATCOM) to solve the interaction between the transmission pair (blue side) and the jammer (red side) to reach a Nash Equilibrium (NE). First, the IFT Game Application Model (iGAM) for SATCOM is formulated to improve the utility of the transmission pair while considering the interference from a jammer. Specifically, in our framework, the frame error rate performance of different modulation and coding schemes is used in the game theoretic solution. Next, the game theoretic analysis shows that the transmission pair can choose the optimal waveform and power given the received power from the jammer. We also describe how the jammer chooses the optimal power given the waveform and power allocation from the transmission pair. Finally, simulations are implemented for the iGAM and the simulation results show the effectiveness of the SATCOM power allocation, waveform selection scheme, and jamming mitigation.

pH regulation of recombinant glucoamylase production in Fusarium venenatum JeRS 325, a transformant with a Fusarium oxysporum alkaline (trypsin-like) protease promoter.

PubMed

Wiebe, M G; Robson, G D; Shuster, J R; Trinci, A P

1999-08-05

Fusarium venenatum (formerly Fusarium graminearum) JeRS 325 produces heterologous glucoamylase (GAM) under the regulation of a Fusarium oxysporum alkaline (trypsin-like) protease promoter. The glucoamylase gene was used as a reporter gene to study the effects of ammonium and pH on GAM production under the control of the alkaline protease promoter. Between pH 4.0 and 5.8, GAM production in glucose-limited chemostat cultures of JeRS 325 grown at a dilution rate of 0.10 h-1 (doubling time, 6.9 h) on (NH4)2SO4 medium increased in a linear manner with increase in pH. However, at pH 4.0 and below GAM production was almost completely repressed in glucose-limited chemostat cultures grown on (NH4)2SO4 or NaNO3 medium. Thus GAM production in JeRS 325 is regulated by culture pH, not by the nature of the nitrogen source in the medium. The difficulty of using unbuffered medium when investigating putative ammonium repression is also shown. The study demonstrates the potential for use of the alkaline protease promoter in F. graminearum for the production of recombinant proteins in a pH dependent man ner. Copyright 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Modeling mountain pine beetle habitat suitability within Sequoia National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Andrew

Understanding significant changes in climate and their effects on timber resources can help forest managers make better decisions regarding the preservation of natural resources and land management. These changes may to alter natural ecosystems dependent on historical and current climate conditions. Increasing mountain pine beetle (MBP) outbreaks within the southern Sierra Nevada are the result of these alterations. This study better understands MPB behavior within Sequoia National Park (SNP) and model its current and future habitat distribution. Variables contributing to MPB spread are vegetation stress, soil moisture, temperature, precipitation, disturbance, and presence of Ponderosa (Pinus ponderosa) and Lodgepole (Pinus contorta) pine trees. These variables were obtained using various modeled, insitu, and remotely sensed sources. The generalized additive model (GAM) was used to calculate the statistical significance of each variable contributing to MPB spread and also created maps identifying habitat suitability. Results indicate vegetation stress and forest disturbance to be variables most indicative of MPB spread. Additionally, the model was able to detect habitat suitability of MPB with a 45% accuracy concluding that a geospatial driven modeling approach can be used to delineate potential MPB spread within SNP.

Shape of the BMI-mortality association by cause of death, using generalized additive models: NHIS 1986-2006.

PubMed

Zajacova, Anna; Burgard, Sarah A

2012-03-01

Numerous studies have examined the association between body mass index (BMI) and mortality. The precise shape of their association, however, has not been established. We use nonparametric methods to determine the relationship between BMI and mortality. Data from the National Health Interview Survey-Linked Mortality Files 1986-2006 for adults aged 50 to 80 are analyzed using a Poisson approach to survival modeling within the generalized additive model (GAM) framework. The BMI-mortality association is more V shaped than U shaped, with the odds of dying rising steeply from the lowest risk point at BMIs of 23 to 26. The association varies considerably by time since interview and cause of death. For instance, the association has an inverted J shape for respiratory causes but is monotonically increasing for diabetes deaths. Our findings have implications for interpreting results from BMI-mortality studies and suggest caution in translating the findings into public health messages.

Registration of ‘Puma’ soft white winter wheat

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Resistance to strawbreaker foot rot (caused by Oculimacula yallundae Crous & W. Gams and O. acuformis Crous & W. Gams), stripe rust (caused by Puccinia striiformis Westend. f. sp. tritici Eriks.), and Cephalosporium stripe (caused by Cephalosporium gramineum Nisikado and Ikata) are important traits ...

Trends in malnutrition and mortality in Darfur, Sudan, between 2004 and 2008: a meta-analysis of publicly available surveys.

PubMed

Nielsen, Jens; Prudhon, Claudine; de Radigues, Xavier

2011-08-01

The humanitarian response to the crisis in Darfur is the largest humanitarian operation in the world. To investigate the evolution of the conditions of the affected population, we analysed trends in malnutrition and mortality, the most widely accepted indicators for assessing the degree of severity of a crisis. We did a meta-analysis of 164 publicly available surveys taking into account changes in the contextual situation and humanitarian aid; type of population [residents and internally displaced persons (IDPs)]; and seasonal variations. Data on global acute malnutrition (GAM), severe acute malnutrition (SAM), crude death rate (CDR) and under-five death rate (U5DR) were analysed using a random effect model. GAM and SAM decreased by 16% and 28%, respectively, in 2004-05, whereas CDR dropped by 44-75% per year depending on state and type of population and U5DR decreased by an overall 50% yearly. Both security and the humanitarian contexts became increasingly complex after 2005, but levels of malnutrition stabilized in North and South Darfur. In West Darfur, GAM remained stable but SAM tended to increase for IDPs, although mortality rates remained constant. Mortality increased slightly for residents in South Darfur after 2005, even though nutritional status was stable. GAM, SAM, CDR and U5DR fluctuated markedly with seasons. A meta-analysis of myriads of surveys permitted us to draw an overall picture of the situation in Darfur and to identify some of its influencing factors. The large humanitarian operation, which gained momentum through 2004-05, was able to contain the crisis despite huge difficulties, but did not compensate for seasonal variations. The situation has remained fragile with some negative patterns tending to emerge. It is crucial that the humanitarian situation continues to be closely monitored.

Weather and air pollutants have an impact on patients with respiratory diseases and breathing difficulties in Munich, Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanka, E. R.; Bayerstadler, A.; Heumann, C.; Nowak, D.; Jörres, R. A.; Fischer, R.

2014-03-01

This study determined the influence of various meteorological variables and air pollutants on airway disorders in general, and asthma and/or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in particular, in Munich, Bavaria, during 2006 and 2007. This was achieved through an evaluation of the daily frequency of calls to medical and emergency call centres, ambulatory medical care visits at general practitioners, and prescriptions of antibiotics for respiratory diseases. Meteorological parameters were extracted from data supplied by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast. Data on air pollutant levels were extracted from the air quality database of the European Environmental Agency for different measurement sites. In addition to descriptive analyses, a backward elimination procedure was performed to identify variables associated with medical outcome variables. Afterwards, generalised additive models (GAM) were used to verify whether the selected variables had a linear or nonlinear impact on the medical outcomes. The analyses demonstrated associations between environmental parameters and daily frequencies of different medical outcomes, such as visits at GPs and air pressure (-27 % per 10 hPa change) or ozone (-24 % per 10 μg/m3 change). The results of the GAM indicated that the effects of some covariates, such as carbon monoxide on consultations at GPs, or humidity on medical calls in general, were nonlinear, while the type of association varied between medical outcomes. These data suggest that the multiple, complex effect of environmental factors on medical outcomes should not be assumed homogeneous or linear a priori and that different settings might be associated with different types of associations.

Time-series analysis of the barriers for admission into a spinal rehabilitation unit.

PubMed

New, P W; Akram, M

2016-02-01

This is a prospective open-cohort case series. The objective of this study was to assess changes over time in the duration of key acute hospital process barriers for patients with spinal cord damage (SCD) from admission until transfer into spinal rehabilitation unit (SRU) or other destinations. The study was conducted in Acute hospitals, Victoria, Australia (2006-2013). Duration of the following discrete sequential processes was measured: acute hospital admission until referral to SRU, referral until SRU assessment, SRU assessment until ready for SRU transfer and ready for transfer until SRU admission. Time-series analysis was performed using a generalised additive model (GAM). Seasonality of non-traumatic spinal cord dysfunction (SCDys) was examined. GAM analysis shows that the waiting time for admission into SRU was significantly (P<0.001) longer for patients who were female, who had tetraplegia, who were motor complete, had a pelvic pressure ulcer and who were referred from another health network. Age had a non-linear effect on the duration of waiting for transfer from acute hospital to SRU and both the acute hospital and SRU length of stay (LOS). The duration patients spent waiting for SRU admission increased over the study period. There was an increase in the number of referrals over the study period and an increase in the number of patients accepted but not admitted into the SRU. There was no notable seasonal influence on the referral of patients with SCDys. Time-series analysis provides additional insights into changes in the waiting times for SRU admission and the LOS in hospital for patients with SCD.

Modelling increased landslide susceptibility near highways in the Andes of southern Ecuador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenning, Alexander; Muenchow, Jannes

2016-04-01

Modelling increased landslide susceptibility near highways in the Andes of southern Ecuador A. Brenning (1), J. Muenchow (1) (1) Department of Geography, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Loebdergraben 32, 07743 Jena, Germany Mountain roads are affected by and also affect themselves landslide suceptibility. Especially in developing countries, inadequate drainage systems and mechanical destabilization of hillslopes by undercutting and overloading are known processes through which road construction and maintenance can enhance landslide activity within the immediate surroundings of road infrastructure. In the Andes of southern Ecuador, strong precipitation gradients as well as lithological differences provide an excellent study site in which the relationship between highways and landslide susceptibility and its regional differentiation can be studied. This study uses Generalized Additive Models (GAM) to investigate patterns of landslide susceptibility along two paved interurban highways in the tropical Andes of southern Ecuador. The relationship of landslides to distance from road is modeled while accounting for topographic, climatic and lithological predictors as possible confounders and modifiers, focusing on the odds ratio of landslide occurrence at 25 m versus 200 m distance from the highway. Spatial attention is given to uncertainties in estimated odds ratios of landslide occurrence using spatial block bootstrap techniques. The GAM is able to represent nonlinear additive terms as well as bivariate smooth interaction terms, providing a good tradeoff between model complexity and interpretability. The estimated odds of landslide occurrence were 18-21 times higher near the highway than at 200 m distance, based on different analyses, with lower 95% confidence limits always >13. (Semi-) parametric estimates confirmed this general range of values but suggests slightly higher odds ratios (95% confidence interval: 15.5-25.3). Highway-related effects were observed to fade at about 150 m distance from the highway. The results suggest that there may be local modifications of landslide susceptibility based on geological conditions, with increased occurrences in Holocene gravels and Laramide andesite/basalt. Overall, landslide susceptibility near paved interurban highways was more than one order of magnitude higher than in areas distant from the highways.

Modeling the effects of AADT on predicting multiple-vehicle crashes at urban and suburban signalized intersections.

PubMed

Chen, Chen; Xie, Yuanchang

2016-06-01

Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) is often considered as a main covariate for predicting crash frequencies at urban and suburban intersections. A linear functional form is typically assumed for the Safety Performance Function (SPF) to describe the relationship between the natural logarithm of expected crash frequency and covariates derived from AADTs. Such a linearity assumption has been questioned by many researchers. This study applies Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and Piecewise Linear Negative Binomial (PLNB) regression models to fit intersection crash data. Various covariates derived from minor-and major-approach AADTs are considered. Three different dependent variables are modeled, which are total multiple-vehicle crashes, rear-end crashes, and angle crashes. The modeling results suggest that a nonlinear functional form may be more appropriate. Also, the results show that it is important to take into consideration the joint safety effects of multiple covariates. Additionally, it is found that the ratio of minor to major-approach AADT has a varying impact on intersection safety and deserves further investigations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Violent video games: The effects of narrative context and reward structure on in-game and postgame aggression.

PubMed

Sauer, James D; Drummond, Aaron; Nova, Natalie

2015-09-01

The potential influence of video game violence on real-world aggression has generated considerable public and scientific interest. Some previous research suggests that playing violent video games can increase postgame aggression. The generalized aggression model (GAM) attributes this to the generalized activation of aggressive schemata. However, it is unclear whether game mechanics that contextualize and encourage or inhibit in-game violence moderate this relationship. Thus, we examined the effects of reward structures and narrative context in a violent video game on in-game and postgame aggression. Contrary to GAM-based predictions, our manipulations differentially affected in-game and postgame aggression. Reward structures selectively affected in-game aggression, whereas narrative context selectively affected postgame aggression. Players who enacted in-game violence through a heroic character exhibited less postgame aggression than players who enacted comparable levels of in-game violence through an antiheroic character. Effects were not attributable to self-activation or character-identification mechanisms, but were consistent with social-cognitive context effects on the interpretation of behavior. These results contradict the GAM's assertion that violent video games affect aggression through a generalized activation mechanism. From an applied perspective, consumer choices may be aided by considering not just game content, but the context in which content is portrayed. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Spider Communities and Biological Control in Native Habitats Surrounding Greenhouses.

PubMed

Cotes, Belén; González, Mónica; Benítez, Emilio; De Mas, Eva; Clemente-Orta, Gemma; Campos, Mercedes; Rodríguez, Estefanía

2018-03-14

The promotion of native vegetation as a habitat for natural enemies, which could increase their abundance and fitness, is especially useful in highly simplified settings such as Mediterranean greenhouse landscapes. Spiders as generalist predators may also be involved in intra-guild predation. However, the niche complementarity provided by spiders as a group means that increased spider diversity may facilitate complementary control actions. In this study, the interactions between spiders, the two major horticultural pests, Bemisia tabaci and Frankliniella occidentalis , and their naturally occurring predators and parasitoids were evaluated in a mix of 21 newly planted shrubs selected for habitat management in a highly disturbed horticultural system. The effects of all factors were evaluated using redundancy analysis (RDA) and the generalized additive model (GAM) to assess the statistical significance of abundance of spiders and pests. The GAM showed that the abundance of both pests had a significant effect on hunter spider's abundance, whereas the abundance of B. tabaci , but not F. occidentalis , affected web-weavers' abundance. Ordination analysis showed that spider abundance closely correlated with that of B. tabaci but not with that of F. occidentalis , suggesting that complementarity occurs, and thereby probability of biocontrol, with respect to the targeted pest B. tabaci , although the temporal patterns of the spiders differed from those of F. occidentalis . Conservation strategies involving the establishment of these native plants around greenhouses could be an effective way to reduce pest populations outdoors.

Insulin resistance index (HOMA-IR) levels in a general adult population: curves percentile by gender and age. The EPIRCE study.

PubMed

Gayoso-Diz, Pilar; Otero-Gonzalez, Alfonso; Rodriguez-Alvarez, María Xosé; Gude, Francisco; Cadarso-Suarez, Carmen; García, Fernando; De Francisco, Angel

2011-10-01

To describe the distribution of HOMA-IR levels in a general nondiabetic population and its relationships with metabolic and lifestyles characteristics. Cross-sectional study. Data from 2246 nondiabetic adults in a random Spanish population sample, stratified by age and gender, were analyzed. Assessments included a structured interview, physical examination, and blood sampling. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to assess the effect of lifestyle habits and clinical and demographic measurements on HOMA-IR. Multivariate GAMs and quantile regression analyses of HOMA-IR were carried out separately in men and women. This study shows refined estimations of HOMA-IR levels by age, body mass index, and waist circumference in men and women. HOMA-IR levels were higher in men (2.06) than women (1.95) (P=0.047). In women, but not men, HOMA-IR and age showed a significant nonlinear association (P=0.006), with increased levels above fifty years of age. We estimated HOMA-IR curves percentile in men and women. Age- and gender-adjusted HOMA-IR levels are reported in a representative Spanish adult non-diabetic population. There are gender-specific differences, with increased levels in women over fifty years of age that may be related with changes in body fat distribution after menopause. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the standing timber volume of Baden-Württemberg-A large-scale approach using a fusion of Landsat, airborne LiDAR and National Forest Inventory data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maack, Joachim; Lingenfelder, Marcus; Weinacker, Holger; Koch, Barbara

2016-07-01

Remote sensing-based timber volume estimation is key for modelling the regional potential, accessibility and price of lignocellulosic raw material for an emerging bioeconomy. We used a unique wall-to-wall airborne LiDAR dataset and Landsat 7 satellite images in combination with terrestrial inventory data derived from the National Forest Inventory (NFI), and applied generalized additive models (GAM) to estimate spatially explicit timber distribution and volume in forested areas. Since the NFI data showed an underlying structure regarding size and ownership, we additionally constructed a socio-economic predictor to enhance the accuracy of the analysis. Furthermore, we balanced the training dataset with a bootstrap method to achieve unbiased regression weights for interpolating timber volume. Finally, we compared and discussed the model performance of the original approach (r2 = 0.56, NRMSE = 9.65%), the approach with balanced training data (r2 = 0.69, NRMSE = 12.43%) and the final approach with balanced training data and the additional socio-economic predictor (r2 = 0.72, NRMSE = 12.17%). The results demonstrate the usefulness of remote sensing techniques for mapping timber volume for a future lignocellulose-based bioeconomy.

Toward Obtaining Reliable Particulate Air Quality Information from Satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strawa, A. W.; Chatfield, R. B.; Legg, M.; Esswein, R.; Justice, E.

2009-12-01

Air quality agencies use ground sites to monitor air quality, providing accurate information at particular points. Using measurements from satellite imagery has the potential to provide air quality information in a timely manner with better spatial resolution and at a lower cost that can also useful for model validation. While previous studies show acceptable correlations between Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) derived from MODIS and surface Particulate Matter (PM) measurements on the eastern US, the data do not correlate well in the western US (Al-Saadi et al., 2005; Engle-Cox et al., 2004) . This paper seeks to improve the AOD-PM correlations by using advanced statistical analysis techniques. Our study area is the San Joaquin Valley in California because air quality in this region has failed to meet state and federal attainment standards for PM for the past several years. A previous investigation found good correlation of the AOD values between MODIS, MISR and AERONET, but poor correlations (R2 ~ 0.02) between satellite-based AOD and surface PM2.5 measurements. PM2.5 measurements correlated somewhat better (R2 ~ 0.18) with MODIS-derived AOD using the Deep Blue surface reflectance algorithm (Hsu et al., 2006) rather than the standard MODIS algorithm. This level of correlation is not adequate for reliable air quality measurements. Pelletier et al. (2007) used generalized additive models (GAMs) and meteorological data to improve the correlation between PM and AERONET AOD in western Europe. Additive models are more flexible than linear models and the functional relationships can be plotted to give a sense of the relationship between the predictor and the response. In this paper we use GAMs to improve surface PM2.5 to MODIS-AOD correlations. For example, we achieve an R2 ~ 0.44 using a GAM that includes the Deep Blue AOD, and day of year as parameters. Including NOx observations, improves the R2 ~ 0.64. Surprisingly Ångström exponent did not prove to be a significant factor. The relationships between the predictor and the response are discussed. Al-Saadi, J., J. Szykman, R.B. Pierce, C. Kittaka, D. Neil, D.A. Chu, L. Remer, L. Gumley, E. Prins, L. Weinstock, C. MacDonald, R. Wayland, F. Dimmick, and J. Fishman, Imporving national air quality forecasts with satellite aerosol observations, Bull. Amer, Met. Soc. (Sept), 1249-1261, 2005. Engle-Cox, J.A., C.H. Holloman, B.W. Coutant, and R.M. Hoff, Qualitative and quantitative evaluation of MODIS satellite sensor data for regional and urban scale air quality, Atmos. En., 38, 2495-2509, 2004. Hsu, N.C., S.-C. Tsay, M.D. King, and J.R. Herman, Deep blue retrievals of Asian Aerosol properties during ACE-Asia, IEEE Trans. on Geosci.a nd Remote Sensing, 44 (11), 3180, 2006. Pelletier, B., R. Santer, and J. Vidot, Retrieving of particulate matter from optical measurements: A semi-parametric approach, J. Geophys. Res., 112 (D06208), 2007.

Model Developments for Development of Improved Emissions Scenarios: Developing Purchasing-Power Parity Models, Analyzing Uncertainty, and Developing Data Sets for Gridded Integrated Assessment Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zili; Nordhaus, William

2009-03-19

In the duration of this project, we finished the main tasks set up in the initial proposal. These tasks include: setting up the basic platform in GAMS language for the new RICE 2007 model; testing various model structure of RICE 2007; incorporating PPP data set in the new RICE model; developing gridded data set for IA modeling.

Forecast of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome incidence with meteorological factors.

PubMed

Sun, Ji-Min; Lu, Liang; Liu, Ke-Ke; Yang, Jun; Wu, Hai-Xia; Liu, Qi-Yong

2018-06-01

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is emerging and some studies reported that SFTS incidence was associated with meteorological factors, while no report on SFTS forecast models was reported up to date. In this study, we constructed and compared three forecast models using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, negative binomial regression model (NBM), and quasi-Poisson generalized additive model (GAM). The dataset from 2011 to 2015 were used for model construction and the dataset in 2016 were used for external validity assessment. All the three models fitted the SFTS cases reasonably well during the training process and forecast process, while the NBM model forecasted better than other two models. Moreover, we demonstrated that temperature and relative humidity played key roles in explaining the temporal dynamics of SFTS occurrence. Our study contributes to better understanding of SFTS dynamics and provides predictive tools for the control and prevention of SFTS. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nutrition surveillance using a small open cohort: experience from Burkina Faso.

PubMed

Altmann, Mathias; Fermanian, Christophe; Jiao, Boshen; Altare, Chiara; Loada, Martin; Myatt, Mark

2016-01-01

Nutritional surveillance remains generally weak and early warning systems are needed in areas with high burden of acute under-nutrition. In order to enhance insight into nutritional surveillance, a community-based sentinel sites approach, known as the Listening Posts (LP) Project, was piloted in Burkina Faso by Action Contre la Faim (ACF). This paper presents ACF's experience with the LP approach and investigates potential selection and observational biases. Six primary sampling units (PSUs) were selected in each livelihood zone using the centric systematic area sampling methodology. In each PSU, 22 children aged between 6 and 24 months were selected by proximity sampling. The prevalence of GAM for each month from January 2011 to December 2013 was estimated using a Bayesian normal-normal conjugate analysis followed by PROBIT estimation. To validate the LP approach in detecting changes over time, the time trends of MUAC from LP and from five cross-sectional surveys were modelled using polynomial regression and compared by using a Wald test. The differences between prevalence estimates from the two data sources were used to assess selection and observational biases. The 95 % credible interval around GAM prevalence estimates using LP approach ranged between +6.5 %/-6.0 % on a prevalence of 36.1 % and +3.5 %/-2.9 % on a prevalence of 10.8 %. LP and cross-sectional surveys time trend models were well correlated (p = 0.6337). Although LP showed a slight but significant trend for GAM to decrease over time at a rate of -0.26 %/visit, the prevalence estimates from the two data sources showed good agreement over a 3-year period. The LP methodology has proved to be valid in following trends of GAM prevalence for a period of 3 years without selection bias. However, a slight observational bias was observed, requiring a periodical reselection of the sentinel sites. This kind of surveillance project is suited to use in areas with high burden of acute under-nutrition where early warning systems are strongly needed. Advocacy is necessary to develop sustainable nutrition surveillance system and to support the use of surveillance data in guiding nutritional programs.

A Systematic Review of Methodology: Time Series Regression Analysis for Environmental Factors and Infectious Diseases

PubMed Central

Imai, Chisato; Hashizume, Masahiro

2015-01-01

Background: Time series analysis is suitable for investigations of relatively direct and short-term effects of exposures on outcomes. In environmental epidemiology studies, this method has been one of the standard approaches to assess impacts of environmental factors on acute non-infectious diseases (e.g. cardiovascular deaths), with conventionally generalized linear or additive models (GLM and GAM). However, the same analysis practices are often observed with infectious diseases despite of the substantial differences from non-infectious diseases that may result in analytical challenges. Methods: Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines, systematic review was conducted to elucidate important issues in assessing the associations between environmental factors and infectious diseases using time series analysis with GLM and GAM. Published studies on the associations between weather factors and malaria, cholera, dengue, and influenza were targeted. Findings: Our review raised issues regarding the estimation of susceptible population and exposure lag times, the adequacy of seasonal adjustments, the presence of strong autocorrelations, and the lack of a smaller observation time unit of outcomes (i.e. daily data). These concerns may be attributable to features specific to infectious diseases, such as transmission among individuals and complicated causal mechanisms. Conclusion: The consequence of not taking adequate measures to address these issues is distortion of the appropriate risk quantifications of exposures factors. Future studies should pay careful attention to details and examine alternative models or methods that improve studies using time series regression analysis for environmental determinants of infectious diseases. PMID:25859149

Climate Factors as Important Determinants of Dengue Incidence in Curaçao.

PubMed

Limper, M; Thai, K T D; Gerstenbluth, I; Osterhaus, A D M E; Duits, A J; van Gorp, E C M

2016-03-01

Macro- and microclimates may have variable impact on dengue incidence in different settings. We estimated the short-term impact and delayed effects of climate variables on dengue morbidity in Curaçao. Monthly dengue incidence data from 1999 to 2009 were included to estimate the short-term influences of climate variables by employing wavelet analysis, generalized additive models (GAM) and distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) on rainfall, temperature and relative humidity in relation to dengue incidence. Dengue incidence showed a significant irregular 4-year multi-annual cycle associated with climate variables. Based on GAM, temperature showed a U-shape, while humidity and rainfall exhibited a dome-shaped association, suggesting that deviation from mean temperature increases and deviation from mean humidity and rainfall decreases dengue incidence, respectively. Rainfall was associated with an immediate increase in dengue incidence of 4.1% (95% CI: 2.2-8.1%) after a 10-mm increase, with a maximum increase of 6.5% (95% CI: 3.2-10.0%) after 1.5 month lag. A 1 °C decrease of mean temperature was associated with a RR of 17.4% (95% CI: 11.2-27.0%); the effect was inversed for a 1°C increase of mean temperature (RR= 0.457, 95% CI: 0.278-0.752). Climate variables are important determinants of dengue incidence and provide insight into its short-term effects. An increase in mean temperature was associated with lower dengue incidence, whereas lower temperatures were associated with higher dengue incidence. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Hyperspectral Mapping of the Invasive Species Pepperweed and the Development of a Habitat Suitability Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Andrew; Gole, Alexander; Randall, Jarom; Dlott, Glade; Zhang, Sylvia; Alfaro, Brian; Schmidt, Cindy; Skiles, J. W.

2011-01-01

Mapping and predicting the spatial distribution of invasive plant species is central to habitat management, however difficult to implement at landscape and regional scales. Remote sensing techniques can reduce the impact field campaigns have on these ecologically sensitive areas and can provide a regional and multi-temporal view of invasive species spread. Invasive perennial pepperweed (Lepidium latifolium) is now widespread in fragmented estuaries of the South San Francisco Bay, and is shown to degrade native vegetation in estuaries and adjacent habitats, thereby reducing forage and shelter for wildlife. The purpose of this study is to map the present distribution of pepperweed in estuarine areas of the South San Francisco Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project (Alviso, CA), and create a habitat suitability model to predict future spread. Pepperweed reflectance data were collected in-situ with a GER 1500 spectroradiometer along with 88 corresponding pepperweed presence and absence points used for building the statistical models. The spectral angle mapper (SAM) classification algorithm was used to distinguish the reflectance spectrum of pepperweed and map its distribution using an image from EO-1 Hyperion. To map pepperweed, we performed a supervised classification on an ASTER image with a resulting classification accuracy of 71.8%. We generated a weighted overlay analysis model within a geographic information system (GIS) framework to predict areas in the study site most susceptible to pepperweed colonization. Variables for the model included propensity for disturbance, status of pond restoration, proximity to water channels, and terrain curvature. A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was also used to generate a probability map and investigate the statistical probability that each variable contributed to predict pepperweed spread. Results from the GAM revealed distance to channels, distance to ponds and curvature were statistically significant (p < 0.01) in determining the locations of suitable pepperweed habitats.

Bodotria jejuensis sp. nov. (Crustacea, Cumacea, Bodotriidae), a new Korean cumacean.

PubMed

Lee, Chang-Mok; Kim, Sung-Hyun; Kim, Young-Hyo

2016-09-06

A new species of Cumacea belonging to the genus Bodotria Goodsir, 1843 was collected from the Jeju-do Island, Korea. The new speices, Bodotria jejuensis sp. nov. is similar to B. similis Calman, 1907, B. rugosa Gamô, 1963, B. carinata Gamô, 1964, and B. biplicata Gamô, 1964 in having a pitted carapace, prominent dorso-lateral carina, and unarticulated endopod of uropod. However, longish elliptical shape of carapace, well-developed dorso-lateral carina and distinct lateral ridge are the major characteristics which serve to distinguish the new species from its congeners. The new species is fully illustrated and extensively compared with related species. A key to the Korean Bodotria species is also provided.

Sexual Arousal Patterns of Autogynephilic Male Cross-Dressers.

PubMed

Hsu, Kevin J; Rosenthal, A M; Miller, David I; Bailey, J Michael

2017-01-01

Men's sexual arousal patterns have been an important window into the nature of their erotic interests. Autogynephilia is a natal male's paraphilic tendency to be sexually aroused by the thought or image of being a woman. Autogynephilic arousal per se is difficult to assess objectively, because it is inwardly focused. However, assessing sexual arousal patterns of autogynephilic males in response to external stimuli is also potentially useful. For example, there is substantial association between autogynephilia and gynandromorphophilia (GAMP), or sexual attraction to gynandromorphs (GAMs), colloquially "she-males." GAMP men's sexual arousal patterns in response to GAM, female, and male stimuli have recently been characterized. In the present study, we extended this understanding by comparing the sexual arousal patterns of autogynephilic male cross-dressers, GAMP men, heterosexual men, and homosexual men. Erotic stimuli included sexually explicit videos of men, women, and GAMs. Autogynephilic men were much more similar in their arousal patterns to heterosexual and GAMP men than to homosexual men. However, similar to GAMP men, autogynephilic men showed increased arousal by GAM stimuli relative to female stimuli compared with heterosexual men.

Comparison of the up-conversion photoluminescence for GAP, GAG and GAM phosphors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Taoli; Jiang, Xianbang

2018-04-01

GdAlO3:Er3+/Yb3+, Gd3Al5O12:Er3+/Yb3+ and Gd4Al2O9:Er3+/Yb3+ phosphors were prepared by co-precipitation. The effects for Gd2O3-Al2O3 composite oxides as the host materials with different crystal structures such as GdAlO3, Gd3Al5O12 and Gd4Al2O9 were investigated. It was found that the perovskite structured GdAlO3:Er3+/Yb3+ (GAP phosphor) could be obtained from the precursor when the calcination temperature was 1000 °C, while the garnet structured Gd3Al5O12:Er3+/Yb3+ (GAG phosphor) could be formed when the calcination temperature was 1300 °C, but the monoclinic-structured Gd4Al2O9:Er3+/Yb3+ (GAM phosphor) could be formed only when the calcination temperature was raised up to 1500 °C. The difference of the up-conversion photoluminescence (UCPL) spectra under 980 nm between the GAP, GAG and GAM phosphors was studied. The result showed that the UCPL intensity of the GAP phosphor was close to that of the GAM phosphor with much higher red-to-green intensity ratio than that of GAP phosphor. The UCPL intensity of GAG phosphor was the weakest among them. Finally, the factors which influenced on the UCPL of the GAP, GAG and GAM phosphors were discussed.

Strategic Mobility 21: Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-14

using AnyLogic , which is a Java programmed, multi-method simulation modeling tool developed by XJ Technologies. The last section examines the academic... simulation model from an Arena platform to an AnyLogic based Web Service. MATLAB is useful for small problems with few nodes, but GAMS/CPLEX is better... Transportation Modeling Studio TM . The SCASN modeling and simulation program was designed to be generic in nature to allow for use by both commercial and

Nonseparable exchange–correlation functional for molecules, including homogeneous catalysis involving transition metals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, Haoyu S.; Zhang, Wenjing; Verma, Pragya

2015-01-01

The goal of this work is to develop a gradient approximation to the exchange–correlation functional of Kohn–Sham density functional theory for treating molecular problems with a special emphasis on the prediction of quantities important for homogeneous catalysis and other molecular energetics. Our training and validation of exchange–correlation functionals is organized in terms of databases and subdatabases. The key properties required for homogeneous catalysis are main group bond energies (database MGBE137), transition metal bond energies (database TMBE32), reaction barrier heights (database BH76), and molecular structures (database MS10). We also consider 26 other databases, most of which are subdatabases of a newlymore » extended broad database called Database 2015, which is presented in the present article and in its ESI. Based on the mathematical form of a nonseparable gradient approximation (NGA), as first employed in the N12 functional, we design a new functional by using Database 2015 and by adding smoothness constraints to the optimization of the functional. The resulting functional is called the gradient approximation for molecules, or GAM. The GAM functional gives better results for MGBE137, TMBE32, and BH76 than any available generalized gradient approximation (GGA) or than N12. The GAM functional also gives reasonable results for MS10 with an MUE of 0.018 Å. The GAM functional provides good results both within the training sets and outside the training sets. The convergence tests and the smooth curves of exchange–correlation enhancement factor as a function of the reduced density gradient show that the GAM functional is a smooth functional that should not lead to extra expense or instability in optimizations. NGAs, like GGAs, have the advantage over meta-GGAs and hybrid GGAs of respectively smaller grid-size requirements for integrations and lower costs for extended systems. These computational advantages combined with the relatively high accuracy for all the key properties needed for molecular catalysis make the GAM functional very promising for future applications.« less

Bridging the gap between research and practice: review of a targeted hospital inpatient fall prevention programme.

PubMed

Barker, A; Kamar, J; Morton, A; Berlowitz, D

2009-12-01

Falls among older inpatients are frequent and have negative consequences. In this study, the effectiveness of a fall prevention programme in reducing falls and fall injuries in an acute hospital was studied. Retrospective audit. The Northern Hospital, an acute, metropolitan, hospital in Australia. A multi-factorial fall prevention programme that included establishment of a multidisciplinary committee, risk assessment of all patients on "high-risk" wards and targeted interventions for patients identified as high risk. Fall and fall injury rates per 1000 occupied bed-days were analysed using generalised additive models (GAM) and, because of the presence of autocorrelation, generalised additive mixed models (GAMM), respectively. During the 9-year observation of 271 095 patients, there were 2910 falls and 843 fall injuries. The GAM predicted rate of falls was stable in the 3 years after the programme was implemented, increased in 2006, then decreased between October 2006 and December 2007 from 4.13 (95% CI 3.65 to 4.67) to 2.83 (95% CI 2.24 to 3.59; p = 0.005). The GAMM predicted rate of fall injuries reduced from 1.66 (95% CI 1.24 to 2.21) to 0.61 (95% CI 0.43 to 0.88) after programme implementation (p<0.001). The falls rate varied throughout the observation period, and no significant change in the rate from preprogramme to postprogramme implementation was observed. The finding of no reduction in falls during the observation period may be explained by improved reporting throughout the observation period. The reduction in fall injuries was substantial and sustained. Identification of a local problem, use of a fall risk assessment to guide the delivery of simple interventions, integration of processes into daily clinical practice and creating systems that demand accountability of staff are factors that appear to have contributed to the programme's success.

Online Statistical Modeling (Regression Analysis) for Independent Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Made Tirta, I.; Anggraeni, Dian; Pandutama, Martinus

2017-06-01

Regression analysis (statistical analmodelling) are among statistical methods which are frequently needed in analyzing quantitative data, especially to model relationship between response and explanatory variables. Nowadays, statistical models have been developed into various directions to model various type and complex relationship of data. Rich varieties of advanced and recent statistical modelling are mostly available on open source software (one of them is R). However, these advanced statistical modelling, are not very friendly to novice R users, since they are based on programming script or command line interface. Our research aims to developed web interface (based on R and shiny), so that most recent and advanced statistical modelling are readily available, accessible and applicable on web. We have previously made interface in the form of e-tutorial for several modern and advanced statistical modelling on R especially for independent responses (including linear models/LM, generalized linier models/GLM, generalized additive model/GAM and generalized additive model for location scale and shape/GAMLSS). In this research we unified them in the form of data analysis, including model using Computer Intensive Statistics (Bootstrap and Markov Chain Monte Carlo/ MCMC). All are readily accessible on our online Virtual Statistics Laboratory. The web (interface) make the statistical modeling becomes easier to apply and easier to compare them in order to find the most appropriate model for the data.

Parapenaeus longirostris (Lucas, 1846) an early warning indicator species of global warming in the central Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colloca, Francesco; Mastrantonio, Gianluca; Lasinio, Giovanna Jona; Ligas, Alessandro; Sartor, Paolo

2014-10-01

The effect of temperature increase on the stock of the deep-sea pink shrimp (Parapenaeus longirostris) was analysed along the western coasts of Italy (North Tyrrhenian-Ligurian Sea: Geographical Sub-Area 9). This crustacean is currently one of the most important commercial species of the trawl fisheries in the Mediterranean Sea. Landings of the species in the North Tyrrhenian-Ligurian Sea have grown consistently during the last years following a rapid increase in the stock size. Since the deep-sea pink shrimp stock is exploited on the same fishing ground of other heavily overexploited stocks in a full mixed and poorly selective fishery, its condition seems to be largely independent of the current fishing exploitation pattern suggesting a positive role of climate change on the dynamic of the stock. To test this hypothesis we investigated the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) on density and distribution of P. longirostris by means of general additive models (GAMs). Two different models were developed for the whole stock and for the recruits (CL < 20 mm) using time series of MEDITS (International bottom trawl survey in the Mediterranean) survey density indices (n km- 2) covering the period 1995-2010. Predictors included were geographical coordinates, quarterly averaged minimum SST, sampling depth and year. Spawners density was included as predictor into the GAM for recruits. The best GAM for the whole stock explained 67.1% of the total deviance, showing a clear increase in density in concomitance with the expansion of the stock northward. We found a significant positive effect of the min SST of all seasons, as expected considering that P. longirostris spawn all year round, with the highest influence played by summer min SST, either in the same or previous year. The best model for recruits explained 64.9% of the total deviance. Recruitment increased linearly with the density of spawners showing a positive temporal trend and an expansion northward. The observed trend in recruitment appeared significantly linked to minimum SST in summer and during the autumn of the previous year, with a positive effect on shrimp density over 23.5 °C and 14 °C respectively. The climate-related changes in recruitment appeared to be the key process driving the dynamics of the stock, involving either higher production or survival in the planktonic stages, or owing to changes in the quality/quantity of nursery habitats.

Collaborative Autonomy with Group Autonomy for Mobile Systems (GAMS)

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-11-18

Carnegie Mellon University for the operation of the Software Engineering Institute, a federally funded research and development center. Any opinions...tutorials, doxygen) Intro MADARA GAMS Conclusion 9 James Edmondson © 2014 Carnegie Mellon University How MADARA helps researchers and developers...architecture portability to prevent vendor lock-in and shorten transition timeframe • Open source. Free. Extensible. • Allows reseachers to focus

Can interface features affect aggression resulting from violent video game play? An examination of realistic controller and large screen size.

PubMed

Kim, Ki Joon; Sundar, S Shyam

2013-05-01

Aggressiveness attributed to violent video game play is typically studied as a function of the content features of the game. However, can interface features of the game also affect aggression? Guided by the General Aggression Model (GAM), we examine the controller type (gun replica vs. mouse) and screen size (large vs. small) as key technological aspects that may affect the state aggression of gamers, with spatial presence and arousal as potential mediators. Results from a between-subjects experiment showed that a realistic controller and a large screen display induced greater aggression, presence, and arousal than a conventional mouse and a small screen display, respectively, and confirmed that trait aggression was a significant predictor of gamers' state aggression. Contrary to GAM, however, arousal showed no effects on aggression; instead, presence emerged as a significant mediator.

Influence of the variation of geometrical and topological traits on light interception efficiency of apple trees: sensitivity analysis and metamodelling for ideotype definition

PubMed Central

Da Silva, David; Han, Liqi; Faivre, Robert; Costes, Evelyne

2014-01-01

Background and Aims The impact of a fruit tree's architecture on its performance is still under debate, especially with regard to the definition of varietal ideotypes and the selection of architectural traits in breeding programmes. This study aimed at providing proof that a modelling approach can contribute to this debate, by using in silico exploration of different combinations of traits and their consequences on light interception, here considered as one of the key parameters to optimize fruit tree production. Methods The variability of organ geometrical traits, previously described in a bi-parental population, was used to simulate 1- to 5-year-old apple trees (Malus × domestica). Branching sequences along trunks observed during the first year of growth of the same hybrid trees were used to initiate the simulations, and hidden semi-Markov chains previously parameterized were used in subsequent years. Tree total leaf area (TLA) and silhouette to total area ratio (STAR) values were estimated, and a sensitivity analysis was performed, based on a metamodelling approach and a generalized additive model (GAM), to analyse the relative impact of organ geometry and lateral shoot types on STAR. Key Results A larger increase over years in TLA mean and variance was generated by varying branching along trunks than by varying organ geometry, whereas the inverse was observed for STAR, where mean values stabilized from year 3 to year 5. The internode length and leaf area had the highest impact on STAR, whereas long sylleptic shoots had a more significant effect than proleptic shoots. Although the GAM did not account for interactions, the additive effects of the geometrical factors explained >90% of STAR variation, but much less in the case of branching factors. Conclusions This study demonstrates that the proposed modelling approach could contribute to screening architectural traits and their relative impact on tree performance, here viewed through light interception. Even though trait combinations and antagonism will need further investigation, the approach opens up new perspectives for breeding and genetic selection to be assisted by varietal ideotype definition. PMID:24723446

Nitrogen deposition outweighs climatic variability in driving annual growth rate of canopy beech trees: Evidence from long-term growth reconstruction across a geographic gradient.

PubMed

Gentilesca, Tiziana; Rita, Angelo; Brunetti, Michele; Giammarchi, Francesco; Leonardi, Stefano; Magnani, Federico; van Noije, Twan; Tonon, Giustino; Borghetti, Marco

2018-07-01

In this study, we investigated the role of climatic variability and atmospheric nitrogen deposition in driving long-term tree growth in canopy beech trees along a geographic gradient in the montane belt of the Italian peninsula, from the Alps to the southern Apennines. We sampled dominant trees at different developmental stages (from young to mature tree cohorts, with tree ages spanning from 35 to 160 years) and used stem analysis to infer historic reconstruction of tree volume and dominant height. Annual growth volume (G V ) and height (G H ) variability were related to annual variability in model simulated atmospheric nitrogen deposition and site-specific climatic variables, (i.e. mean annual temperature, total annual precipitation, mean growing period temperature, total growing period precipitation, and standard precipitation evapotranspiration index) and atmospheric CO 2 concentration, including tree cambial age among growth predictors. Generalized additive models (GAM), linear mixed-effects models (LMM), and Bayesian regression models (BRM) were independently employed to assess explanatory variables. The main results from our study were as follows: (i) tree age was the main explanatory variable for long-term growth variability; (ii) GAM, LMM, and BRM results consistently indicated climatic variables and CO 2 effects on G V and G H were weak, therefore evidence of recent climatic variability influence on beech annual growth rates was limited in the montane belt of the Italian peninsula; (iii) instead, significant positive nitrogen deposition (N dep ) effects were repeatedly observed in G V and G H ; the positive effects of N dep on canopy height growth rates, which tended to level off at N dep values greater than approximately 1.0 g m -2  y -1 , were interpreted as positive impacts on forest stand above-ground net productivity at the selected study sites. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A low-altitude mountain range as an important refugium for two narrow endemics in the Southwest Australian Floristic Region biodiversity hotspot

PubMed Central

Robinson, Todd P.; Wardell-Johnson, Grant W.; Yates, Colin J.; Van Niel, Kimberly P.; Byrne, Margaret; Schut, Antonius G. T.

2017-01-01

Background and Aims Low-altitude mountains constitute important centres of diversity in landscapes with little topographic variation, such as the Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR). They also provide unique climatic and edaphic conditions that may allow them to function as refugia. We investigate whether the Porongurups (altitude 655 m) in the SWAFR will provide a refugium for the endemic Ornduffia calthifolia and O. marchantii under forecast climate change. Methods We used species distribution modelling based on WorldClim climatic data, 30-m elevation data and a 2-m-resolution LiDAR-derived digital elevation model (DEM) to predict current and future distributions of the Ornduffia species at local and regional scales based on 605 field-based abundance estimates. Future distributions were forecast using RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 projections. To determine whether local edaphic and biotic factors impact these forecasts, we tested whether soil depth and vegetation height were significant predictors of abundance using generalized additive models (GAMs). Key Results Species distribution modelling revealed the importance of elevation and topographic variables at the local scale for determining distributions of both species, which also preferred shadier locations and higher slopes. However, O. calthifolia occurred at higher (cooler) elevations with rugged, concave topography, while O. marchantii occurred in disturbed sites at lower locations with less rugged, convex topography. Under future climates both species are likely to severely contract under the milder RCP2.6 projection (approx. 2 °C of global warming), but are unlikely to persist if warming is more severe (RCP4.5). GAMs showed that soil depth and vegetation height are important predictors of O. calthifolia and O. marchantii distributions, respectively. Conclusions The Porongurups constitute an important refugium for O. calthifolia and O. marchantii, but limits to this capacity may be reached if global warming exceeds 2 °C. This capacity is moderated at local scales by biotic and edaphic factors. PMID:27634576

Using stable isotopes of albacore tuna and predictive models to characterize bioregions and examine ecological change in the SW Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pethybridge, Heidi R.; Young, Jock W.; Kuhnert, Petra M.; Farley, Jessica H.

2015-05-01

Broad-scale food web inferences of 534 albacore tuna, Thunnus alalunga, in the south-west Pacific Ocean in 2009 and 2010 were made using bulk nitrogen (δ15N) and carbon (δ13C) stable isotopes. Condition was also examined for the same fish using C:N ratios. A Generalized Additive Modeling (GAM) approach was used to analyze spatio-temporal, biological and environmental drivers that impact the distribution of tuna isotopes and to create oceanographic maps. Based on model formulations, five bioregions with distinct isotopic signatures were identified and were related to known biological, nutrient cycling and oceanographic (temperature, primary productivity and eddy) features associated with the East Australian Current. δ15N values showed a large-scale, uniform latitudinal gradient decreasing from the south to north, in a region encompassing oligotrophic waters in the Coral Sea. In contrast, δ13C values were lower in the nutrient rich Tasman Sea waters and offshore East Australia. C:N ratios suggested that albacore occupying southern and offshore waters were in better condition. Ontogenetic trends in all three biochemical parameters were identified and related to differences in size distribution. Regional-specific temporal variations were detected including similar monthly changes for both isotopes and significantly less enriched δ13C (by 1.9‰) than in previous work undertaken in 2006, potentially signifying a substantial shift in the carbon cycle that supports food webs off central east Australia. Our results showed that isotopic measurements in tuna and the GAM framework provide powerful tools to assess ecosystem functioning and change by linking sources of nutrients and organic matter to local food web assembly. Such knowledge is vital to support an ecosystem based approach to fisheries management including biogeochemical whole-of-ecosystem models and monitoring programs at regional and landscape-scales.

Colorectal cancer risk and nitrate exposure through drinking water and diet.

PubMed

Espejo-Herrera, Nadia; Gràcia-Lavedan, Esther; Boldo, Elena; Aragonés, Nuria; Pérez-Gómez, Beatriz; Pollán, Marina; Molina, Antonio J; Fernández, Tania; Martín, Vicente; La Vecchia, Carlo; Bosetti, Cristina; Tavani, Alessandra; Polesel, Jerry; Serraino, Diego; Gómez Acebo, Inés; Altzibar, Jone M; Ardanaz, Eva; Burgui, Rosana; Pisa, Federica; Fernández-Tardón, Guillermo; Tardón, Adonina; Peiró, Rosana; Navarro, Carmen; Castaño-Vinyals, Gemma; Moreno, Victor; Righi, Elena; Aggazzotti, Gabriella; Basagaña, Xavier; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark; Kogevinas, Manolis; Villanueva, Cristina M

2016-07-15

Ingested nitrate leads to the endogenous synthesis of N-nitroso compounds (NOCs), animal carcinogens with limited human evidence. We aimed to evaluate the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) associated with nitrate exposure in drinking water and diet. A case-control study in Spain and Italy during 2008-2013 was conducted. Hospital-based incident cases and population-based (Spain) or hospital-based (Italy) controls were interviewed on residential history, water consumption since age 18, and dietary information. Long-term waterborne ingested nitrate was derived from routine monitoring records, linked to subjects' residential histories and water consumption habits. Dietary nitrate intake was estimated from food frequency questionnaires and published food composition databases. Odd ratios (OR) were calculated using mixed models with area as random effect, adjusted for CRC risk factors and other covariables. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to analyze exposure-response relationships. Interaction with endogenous nitrosation factors and other covariables was also evaluated. In total 1,869 cases and 3,530 controls were analyzed. Average waterborne ingested nitrate ranged from 3.4 to 19.7 mg/day, among areas. OR (95% CIs) of CRC was 1.49 (1.24, 1.78) for >10 versus ≤5 mg/day, overall. Associations were larger among men versus women, and among subjects with high red meat intake. GAMs showed increasing exposure-response relationship among men. Animal-derived dietary nitrate was associated with rectal, but not with colon cancer risk. In conclusion, a positive association between CRC risk and waterborne ingested nitrate is suggested, mainly among subgroups with other risk factors. Heterogeneous effects of nitrate from different sources (water, animal and vegetables) warrant further research. © 2016 UICC.

Spatial, Temporal, and Habitat-Related Variation in Abundance of Pelagic Fishes in the Gulf of Mexico: Potential Implications of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

PubMed Central

Rooker, Jay R.; Kitchens, Larissa L.; Dance, Michael A.; Wells, R. J. David; Falterman, Brett; Cornic, Maëlle

2013-01-01

Time-series data collected over a four-year period were used to characterize patterns of abundance for pelagic fishes in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM) before (2007–2009) and after (2010) the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Four numerically dominant pelagic species (blackfin tuna, blue marlin, dolphinfish, and sailfish) were included in our assessment, and larval density of each species was lower in 2010 than any of the three years prior to the oil spill, although larval abundance in 2010 was often statistically similar to other years surveyed. To assess potential overlap between suitable habitat of pelagic fish larvae and surface oil, generalized additive models (GAMs) were developed to evaluate the influence of ocean conditions on the abundance of larvae from 2007–2009. Explanatory variables from GAMs were then linked to environmental data from 2010 to predict the probability of occurrence for each species. The spatial extent of surface oil overlapped with early life habitat of each species, possibly indicating that the availability of high quality habitat was affected by the DH oil spill. Shifts in the distribution of spawning adults is another factor known to influence the abundance of larvae, and the spatial occurrence of a model pelagic predator (blue marlin) was characterized over the same four-year period using electronic tags. The spatial extent of oil coincided with areas used by adult blue marlin from 2007–2009, and the occurrence of blue marlin in areas impacted by the DH oil spill was lower in 2010 relative to pre-spill years. PMID:24130759

The next mesothelioma wave: mortality trends and forecast to 2030 in Brazil.

PubMed

Algranti, Eduardo; Saito, Cézar Akiyoshi; Carneiro, Ana Paula Scalia; Moreira, Bruno; Mendonça, Elizabete Medina Coeli; Bussacos, Marco Antonio

2015-10-01

There are limited data on mesothelioma mortality in industrializing countries, where, at present, most of the asbestos consumption occurs. To analyze temporal trends and to calculate mortality rates from mesothelioma and cancer of the pleura in Brazil from 2000 to 2012 and to estimate future mortality rates. We retrieved records of deaths from mesothelioma (ICD-10C45) and cancer of the pleura (ICD-10C38.4) from 2000 to 2012 in adults aged 30 years and over. Crude and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated. Rate ratios of mean crude mortality for selected municipalities were compared to the Brazilian rate. A regression was carried out of the annual number of deaths against asbestos consumption using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM). The best model was chosen to estimate the future burden and peak period of deaths. There were 929C45 and 1379 C38.4 deaths. The ratio of men to women for C45 was 1.4. A positive trend in C45 numbers was observed in Brazil (p=0.0012), particularly in São Paulo (p=0.0004) where ASMRs presented an increasing linear trend (p=0.0344). Selected municipalities harboring asbestos manipulation presented 3.7-11 fold rate ratios of C45 compared to Brazil. GAM presented best fits for latencies of 34 years or more. It is estimated that the peak incidence of C45 mortality will occur between 2021 and 2026. The observed ASMRs and the gender ratio close to 1 suggest underreporting. Even so, deaths are increasing and mesothelioma clusters were identified. Compared to industrialized countries Brazil displays a 15-20 year lag in estimated peak mesothelioma mortality which is consistent with the lag of asbestos peak consumption in the country. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GamR, the LysR-Type Galactose Metabolism Regulator, Regulates hrp Gene Expression via Transcriptional Activation of Two Key hrp Regulators, HrpG and HrpX, in Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae.

PubMed

Rashid, M Mamunur; Ikawa, Yumi; Tsuge, Seiji

2016-07-01

Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae is the causal agent of bacterial leaf blight of rice. For the virulence of the bacterium, the hrp genes, encoding components of the type III secretion system, are indispensable. The expression of hrp genes is regulated by two key hrp regulators, HrpG and HrpX: HrpG regulates hrpX, and HrpX regulates other hrp genes. Several other regulators have been shown to be involved in the regulation of hrp genes. Here, we found that a LysR-type transcriptional regulator that we named GamR, encoded by XOO_2767 of X. oryzae pv. oryzae strain MAFF311018, positively regulated the transcription of both hrpG and hrpX, which are adjacent to each other but have opposite orientations, with an intergenic upstream region in common. In a gel electrophoresis mobility shift assay, GamR bound directly to the middle of the upstream region common to hrpG and hrpX The loss of either GamR or its binding sites decreased hrpG and hrpX expression. Also, GamR bound to the upstream region of either a galactose metabolism-related gene (XOO_2768) or a galactose metabolism-related operon (XOO_2768 to XOO_2771) located next to gamR itself and positively regulated the genes. The deletion of the regulator gene resulted in less bacterial growth in a synthetic medium with galactose as a sole sugar source. Interestingly, induction of the galactose metabolism-related gene was dependent on galactose, while that of the hrp regulator genes was galactose independent. Our results indicate that the LysR-type transcriptional regulator that regulates the galactose metabolism-related gene(s) also acts in positive regulation of two key hrp regulators and the following hrp genes in X. oryzae pv. oryzae. The expression of hrp genes encoding components of the type III secretion system is essential for the virulence of many plant-pathogenic bacteria, including Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae. It is specifically induced during infection. Research has revealed that in this bacterium, hrp gene expression is controlled by two key hrp regulators, HrpG and HrpX, along with several other regulators in the complex regulatory network, but the details remain unclear. Here, we found that a novel LysR-type transcriptional activator, named GamR, functions as an hrp regulator by directly activating the transcription of both hrpG and hrpX Interestingly, GamR also regulates a galactose metabolism-related gene (or operon) in a galactose-dependent manner, while the regulation of hrpG and hrpX is independent of the sugar. Our finding of a novel hrp regulator that directly and simultaneously regulates two key hrp regulators provides new insights into an important and complex regulation system of X. oryzae pv. oryzae hrp genes. Copyright © 2016, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

An investigation of the mechanism underlying teacher aggression: Testing I3 theory and the General Aggression Model.

PubMed

Montuoro, Paul; Mainhard, Tim

2017-12-01

Considerable research has investigated the deleterious effects of teachers responding aggressively to students who misbehave, but the mechanism underlying this dysfunctional behaviour remains unknown. This study investigated whether the mechanism underlying teacher aggression follows I 3 theory or General Aggression Model (GAM) metatheory of human aggression. I 3 theory explains exceptional, catastrophic events of human aggression, whereas the GAM explains common human aggression behaviours. A total of 249 Australian teachers participated in this study, including 142 primary school teachers (Mdn [age] = 35-39 years; Mdn [years teaching] = 10-14 years; 84% female) and 107 secondary school teachers (Mdn [age] = 45-49 years; Mdn [years teaching] = 15-19 years; 65% female). Participants completed four online self-report questionnaires, which assessed caregiving responsiveness, trait self-control, misbehaviour provocation, and teacher aggression. Analyses revealed that the GAM most accurately captures the mechanism underlying teacher aggression, with lower caregiving responsiveness appearing to indirectly lead to teacher aggression via higher misbehaviour provocation and lower trait self-control in serial, controlling for gender, age, years teaching, and current role (primary, secondary). This study indicates that teacher aggression proceeds from 'the person in the situation'. Specifically, lower caregiving responsiveness appears to negatively shape a teacher's affective, cognitive, and arousal states, which influence how they perceive and interpret student misbehaviour. These internal states, in turn, appear to negatively influence appraisal and decision processes, leading to immediate appraisal and impulsive actions. These results raise the possibility that teacher aggression is a form of countertransference. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Use of generalised additive models to categorise continuous variables in clinical prediction

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background In medical practice many, essentially continuous, clinical parameters tend to be categorised by physicians for ease of decision-making. Indeed, categorisation is a common practice both in medical research and in the development of clinical prediction rules, particularly where the ensuing models are to be applied in daily clinical practice to support clinicians in the decision-making process. Since the number of categories into which a continuous predictor must be categorised depends partly on the relationship between the predictor and the outcome, the need for more than two categories must be borne in mind. Methods We propose a categorisation methodology for clinical-prediction models, using Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) with P-spline smoothers to determine the relationship between the continuous predictor and the outcome. The proposed method consists of creating at least one average-risk category along with high- and low-risk categories based on the GAM smooth function. We applied this methodology to a prospective cohort of patients with exacerbated chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The predictors selected were respiratory rate and partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the blood (PCO2), and the response variable was poor evolution. An additive logistic regression model was used to show the relationship between the covariates and the dichotomous response variable. The proposed categorisation was compared to the continuous predictor as the best option, using the AIC and AUC evaluation parameters. The sample was divided into a derivation (60%) and validation (40%) samples. The first was used to obtain the cut points while the second was used to validate the proposed methodology. Results The three-category proposal for the respiratory rate was ≤ 20;(20,24];> 24, for which the following values were obtained: AIC=314.5 and AUC=0.638. The respective values for the continuous predictor were AIC=317.1 and AUC=0.634, with no statistically significant differences being found between the two AUCs (p =0.079). The four-category proposal for PCO2 was ≤ 43;(43,52];(52,65];> 65, for which the following values were obtained: AIC=258.1 and AUC=0.81. No statistically significant differences were found between the AUC of the four-category option and that of the continuous predictor, which yielded an AIC of 250.3 and an AUC of 0.825 (p =0.115). Conclusions Our proposed method provides clinicians with the number and location of cut points for categorising variables, and performs as successfully as the original continuous predictor when it comes to developing clinical prediction rules. PMID:23802742

Summary of hydrogeology and simulation of ground-water flow and land-surface subsidence in the northern part of the Gulf Coast aquifer system, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kasmarek, Mark C.; Robinson, James L.

2004-01-01

The northern part of the Gulf Coast aquifer system in Texas, which includes the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers, supplies most of the water used for industrial, municipal, agricultural, and commercial purposes for an approximately 25,000- square-mile (mi2) area that includes the Beaumont and Houston metropolitan areas. The area has an abundant amount of potable ground water, but withdrawals of large quantities of ground water have resulted in potentiometric-surface declines in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and land-surface subsidence from depressurization and compaction of clay layers interbedded in the aquifer sediments. This fact sheet summarizes a study done in cooperation with the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) and the Harris-Galveston Coastal Subsidence District (HGCSD) as a part of the TWDB Ground-Water Availability Modeling (or Model) (GAM) program. The study was designed to develop and test a ground-water-flow model of the northern part of the Gulf Coast aquifer system in the GAM area (fig. 1) that waterresource managers can use as a tool to address future groundwater- availability issues.

Corrections of stratified tropospheric delays in SAR interferometry: Validation with global atmospheric models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doin, Marie-Pierre; Lasserre, Cécile; Peltzer, Gilles; Cavalié, Olivier; Doubre, Cécile

2010-05-01

The main limiting factor on the accuracy of Interferometric SAR measurements (InSAR) comes from phase propagation delays through the troposphere. The delay can be divided into a stratified component, which correlates with the topography and often dominates the tropospheric signal, and a turbulent component. We use Global Atmospheric Models (GAM) to estimate the stratified phase delay and delay-elevation ratio at epochs of SAR acquisitions, and compare them to observed phase delay derived from SAR interferograms. Three test areas are selected with different geographic and climatic environments and with large SAR archive available. The Lake Mead, Nevada, USA is covered by 79 ERS1/2 and ENVISAT acquisitions, the Haiyuan Fault area, Gansu, China, by 24 ERS1/2 acquisitions, and the Afar region, Republic of Djibouti, by 91 Radarsat acquisitions. The hydrostatic and wet stratified delays are computed from GAM as a function of atmospheric pressure P, temperature T, and water vapor partial pressure e vertical profiles. The hydrostatic delay, which depends on ratio P/T, varies significantly at low elevation and cannot be neglected. The wet component of the delay depends mostly on the near surface specific humidity. GAM predicted delay-elevation ratios are in good agreement with the ratios derived from InSAR data away from deforming zones. Both estimations of the delay-elevation ratio can thus be used to perform a first order correction of the observed interferometric phase to retrieve a ground motion signal of low amplitude. We also demonstrate that aliasing of daily and seasonal variations in the stratified delay due to uneven sampling of SAR data significantly bias InSAR data stacks or time series produced after temporal smoothing. In all three test cases, the InSAR data stacks or smoothed time series present a residual stratified delay of the order of the expected deformation signal. In all cases, correcting interferograms from the stratified delay removes all these biases. We quantify the standard error associated with the correction of the stratified atmospheric delay. It varies from one site to another depending on the prevailing atmospheric conditions, but remains bounded by the standard deviation of the daily fluctuations of the stratified delay around the seasonal average. Finally we suggest that the phase delay correction can potentially be improved by introducing a non-linear dependence to the elevation derived from GAM.

Corrections of stratified tropospheric delays in SAR interferometry: Validation with global atmospheric models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doin, M.-P.; Lasserre, C.; Peltzer, G.; Cavalié, O.; Doubre, C.

2009-09-01

The main limiting factor on the accuracy of Interferometric SAR measurements (InSAR) comes from phase propagation delays through the troposphere. The delay can be divided into a stratified component, which correlates with the topography and often dominates the tropospheric signal, and a turbulent component. We use Global Atmospheric Models (GAM) to estimate the stratified phase delay and delay-elevation ratio at epochs of SAR acquisitions, and compare them to observed phase delay derived from SAR interferograms. Three test areas are selected with different geographic and climatic environments and with large SAR archive available. The Lake Mead, Nevada, USA is covered by 79 ERS1/2 and ENVISAT acquisitions, the Haiyuan Fault area, Gansu, China, by 24 ERS1/2 acquisitions, and the Afar region, Republic of Djibouti, by 91 Radarsat acquisitions. The hydrostatic and wet stratified delays are computed from GAM as a function of atmospheric pressure P, temperature T, and water vapor partial pressure e vertical profiles. The hydrostatic delay, which depends on ratio P/ T, varies significantly at low elevation and cannot be neglected. The wet component of the delay depends mostly on the near surface specific humidity. GAM predicted delay-elevation ratios are in good agreement with the ratios derived from InSAR data away from deforming zones. Both estimations of the delay-elevation ratio can thus be used to perform a first order correction of the observed interferometric phase to retrieve a ground motion signal of low amplitude. We also demonstrate that aliasing of daily and seasonal variations in the stratified delay due to uneven sampling of SAR data significantly bias InSAR data stacks or time series produced after temporal smoothing. In all three test cases, the InSAR data stacks or smoothed time series present a residual stratified delay of the order of the expected deformation signal. In all cases, correcting interferograms from the stratified delay removes all these biases. We quantify the standard error associated with the correction of the stratified atmospheric delay. It varies from one site to another depending on the prevailing atmospheric conditions, but remains bounded by the standard deviation of the daily fluctuations of the stratified delay around the seasonal average. Finally we suggest that the phase delay correction can potentially be improved by introducing a non-linear dependence to the elevation derived from GAM.

Monitoring hand, foot and mouth disease by combining search engine query data and meteorological factors.

PubMed

Huang, Da-Cang; Wang, Jin-Feng

2018-01-15

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has been recognized as a significant public health threat and poses a tremendous challenge to disease control departments. To date, the relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD has been documented, and public interest of disease has been proven to be trackable from the Internet. However, no study has explored the combination of these two factors in the monitoring of HFMD. Therefore, the main aim of this study was to develop an effective monitoring model of HFMD in Guangzhou, China by utilizing historical HFMD cases, Internet-based search engine query data and meteorological factors. To this end, a case study was conducted in Guangzhou, using a network-based generalized additive model (GAM) including all factors related to HFMD. Three other models were also constructed using some of the variables for comparison. The results suggested that the model showed the best estimating ability when considering all of the related factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Online Guidance, Advice, and Support for Problem Gamblers and Concerned Relatives and Friends: An Evaluation of the "GamAid" Pilot Service

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wood, Richard T. A.; Griffiths, Mark D.

2007-01-01

The paper reports one of the first ever studies to evaluate the effectiveness of an online help and guidance service for problem gamblers. The evaluation utilised a mixed methods design in order to examine both primary and secondary data relating to the client experience. In addition, the researchers posed as problem gamblers in order to obtain…

Global two-fluid simulations of geodesic acoustic modes in strongly shaped tight aspect ratio tokamak plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robinson, J. R.; Hnat, B.; Thyagaraja, A.

2013-05-15

Following recent observations suggesting the presence of the geodesic acoustic mode (GAM) in ohmically heated discharges in the Mega Amp Spherical Tokamak (MAST) [J. R. Robinson et al., Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 54, 105007 (2012)], the behaviour of the GAM is studied numerically using the two fluid, global code CENTORI [P. J. Knight et al. Comput. Phys. Commun. 183, 2346 (2012)]. We examine mode localisation and effects of magnetic geometry, given by aspect ratio, elongation, and safety factor, on the observed frequency of the mode. An excellent agreement between simulations and experimental data is found for simulation plasma parameters matchedmore » to those of MAST. Increasing aspect ratio yields good agreement between the GAM frequency found in the simulations and an analytical result obtained for elongated large aspect ratio plasmas.« less

Perfect absorption in 1D photonic crystal nanobeam embedded with graphene/Al2O3 multilayer stack

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Hanqing; Zha, Song; Liu, Peiguo; Zhou, Xiaotian; Bian, Li-an

2018-05-01

We exploit the concept of critical coupling to graphene based chip-integrated applications and numerically demonstrate that a perfect absorption (PA) absorber in the near-infrared can be obtained by graphene/Al2O3 multilayer stack (GAMS) critical coupling with a resonant cavity in the 1D photonic crystal nanobeam (PCN). The key point is dynamically matching the coupling rate of incident light wave to the cavity with the absorbing rate of GAMS via electrically modulating the chemical potential of graphene. Simulation results show that the radius of GAMS as well as the thickness of Al2O3 layer are closely connected with the performance of perfect absorption. These results may provide potential applications in the high-density integrated optical devices, photolectric transducers, and laser pulse limiters.

Atmospheric corrections in interferometric synthetic aperture radar surface deformation - a case study of the city of Mendoza, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balbarani, S.; Euillades, P. A.; Euillades, L. D.; Casu, F.; Riveros, N. C.

2013-09-01

Differential interferometry is a remote sensing technique that allows studying crustal deformation produced by several phenomena like earthquakes, landslides, land subsidence and volcanic eruptions. Advanced techniques, like small baseline subsets (SBAS), exploit series of images acquired by synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sensors during a given time span. Phase propagation delay in the atmosphere is the main systematic error of interferometric SAR measurements. It affects differently images acquired at different days or even at different hours of the same day. So, datasets acquired during the same time span from different sensors (or sensor configuration) often give diverging results. Here we processed two datasets acquired from June 2010 to December 2011 by COSMO-SkyMed satellites. One of them is HH-polarized, and the other one is VV-polarized and acquired on different days. As expected, time series computed from these datasets show differences. We attributed them to non-compensated atmospheric artifacts and tried to correct them by using ERA-Interim global atmospheric model (GAM) data. With this method, we were able to correct less than 50% of the scenes, considering an area where no phase unwrapping errors were detected. We conclude that GAM-based corrections are not enough for explaining differences in computed time series, at least in the processed area of interest. We remark that no direct meteorological data for the GAM-based corrections were employed. Further research is needed in order to understand under what conditions this kind of data can be used.

Using remote sensing environmental data to forecast malaria incidence at a rural district hospital in Western Kenya.

PubMed

Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo; Tozan, Yesim; Ahlm, Clas; Rocklöv, Joacim

2017-06-01

Malaria surveillance data provide opportunity to develop forecasting models. Seasonal variability in environmental factors correlate with malaria transmission, thus the identification of transmission patterns is useful in developing prediction models. However, with changing seasonal transmission patterns, either due to interventions or shifting weather seasons, traditional modelling approaches may not yield adequate predictive skill. Two statistical models,a general additive model (GAM) and GAMBOOST model with boosted regression were contrasted by assessing their predictive accuracy in forecasting malaria admissions at lead times of one to three months. Monthly admission data for children under five years with confirmed malaria at the Siaya district hospital in Western Kenya for the period 2003 to 2013 were used together with satellite derived data on rainfall, average temperature and evapotranspiration(ET). There was a total of 8,476 confirmed malaria admissions. The peak of malaria season changed and malaria admissions reduced overtime. The GAMBOOST model at 1-month lead time had the highest predictive skill during both the training and test periods and thus can be utilized in a malaria early warning system.

Creativity in context; the courage in Therivel's GAM/DP.

PubMed

Gruber, Craig W

2013-03-01

The desire to quantify and categorize creativity so that we can easily identify the individual characteristics which serve as its precursors is one which authors have been attempting to successfully complete for some time. In this light, William Therivel's High Creativity Unmasked, discusses how his GAM/DP theory accounts for highly creative people from history as well as a rationale for the rise and fall of creativity in selected cultures throughout history. By examining the latest published work on how Genetic Endowment, Assistances, Misfortunes and Divisions of Power, and how they relate to creativity, Therivel proposes unique rationales for the rises and declines of cultures. This paper examines how creativity and courage work together and in some cases side by side, to explain more fully the role of creativity in culture. This article examines some of Therivel's examples and provides alternate explanations for the phenomena he ascribes to the decline of creativity. In addition, the complexity of both creativity and courage are discussed, both in the current context, and in the next steps for research and theoretical discussion.

Urban-hazard risk analysis: mapping of heat-related risks in the elderly in major Italian cities.

PubMed

Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Gioli, Beniamino; Gualtieri, Giovanni; Toscano, Piero; Di Stefano, Valentina; Orlandini, Simone; Gensini, Gian Franco

2015-01-01

Short-term impacts of high temperatures on the elderly are well known. Even though Italy has the highest proportion of elderly citizens in Europe, there is a lack of information on spatial heat-related elderly risks. Development of high-resolution, heat-related urban risk maps regarding the elderly population (≥ 65). A long time-series (2001-2013) of remote sensing MODIS data, averaged over the summer period for eleven major Italian cities, were downscaled to obtain high spatial resolution (100 m) daytime and night-time land surface temperatures (LST). LST was estimated pixel-wise by applying two statistical model approaches: 1) the Linear Regression Model (LRM); 2) the Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Total and elderly population density data were extracted from the Joint Research Centre population grid (100 m) from the 2001 census (Eurostat source), and processed together using "Crichton's Risk Triangle" hazard-risk methodology for obtaining a Heat-related Elderly Risk Index (HERI). The GAM procedure allowed for improved daytime and night-time LST estimations compared to the LRM approach. High-resolution maps of daytime and night-time HERI levels were developed for inland and coastal cities. Urban areas with the hazardous HERI level (very high risk) were not necessarily characterized by the highest temperatures. The hazardous HERI level was generally localized to encompass the city-centre in inland cities and the inner area in coastal cities. The two most dangerous HERI levels were greater in the coastal rather than inland cities. This study shows the great potential of combining geospatial technologies and spatial demographic characteristics within a simple and flexible framework in order to provide high-resolution urban mapping of daytime and night-time HERI. In this way, potential areas for intervention are immediately identified with up-to-street level details. This information could support public health operators and facilitate coordination for heat-related emergencies.

Associations of obesity with triglycerides and C-reactive protein are attenuated in adults with high red blood cell eicosapentaenoic and docosahexaenoic acids

PubMed Central

Makhoul, Zeina; Kristal, Alan R.; Gulati, Roman; Luick, Bret; Bersamin, Andrea; O'Brien, Diane; Hopkins, Scarlett E.; Stephensen, Charles B.; Stanhope, Kimber L.; Havel, Peter J.; Boyer, Bert

2011-01-01

Background N-3 fatty acids are associated with favorable, and obesity with unfavorable, concentrations of chronic disease risk biomarkers. Objective We examined whether high eicosapentaenoic (EPA) and docosahexaenoic (DHA) acid intakes, measured as percentages of total red blood cell (RBC) fatty acids, modify associations of obesity with chronic disease risk biomarkers. Methods In a cross-sectional study of 330 Yup'ik Eskimos, generalized additive models (GAM) and linear and quadratic regression models were used to examine associations of BMI with biomarkers across RBC EPA and DHA categories. Results Median (5th–95th percentile) RBC EPA and DHA were 2.6% (0.5–5.9%) and 7.3% (3.3–8.9%), respectively. In regression models, associations of BMI with triglycerides, glucose, insulin, C-reactive protein (CRP) and leptin differed significantly by RBC EPA and DHA. The GAM confirmed regression results for triglycerides and CRP: At low RBC EPA and RBC DHA, the predicted increases in triglycerides and CRP concentrations associated with a BMI increase from 25 to 35 were 99.5±45.3 mg/dl (106%) and 137.8±71.0 mg/dl (156%), respectively, for triglycerides and 1.2±0.7 mg/l (61%) and 0.8±1.0 mg/l (35%), respectively, for CRP. At high RBC EPA and RBC DHA, these predicted increases were 13.9±8.1 mg/dl (23%) and 12.0±12.3 mg/dl (18%), respectively, for triglycerides and 0.5±0.5 mg/l (50%) and −0.5±0.6 mg/l (−34%), respectively, for CRP. Conclusions In this population, high RBC EPA and DHA were associated with attenuated dyslipidemia and low-grade systemic inflammation among overweight and obese persons. This may help inform recommendations for n-3 fatty acid intakes in the reduction of obesity-related disease risk. PMID:21427737

Urban-Hazard Risk Analysis: Mapping of Heat-Related Risks in the Elderly in Major Italian Cities

PubMed Central

Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Gioli, Beniamino; Gualtieri, Giovanni; Toscano, Piero; Di Stefano, Valentina; Orlandini, Simone; Gensini, Gian Franco

2015-01-01

Background Short-term impacts of high temperatures on the elderly are well known. Even though Italy has the highest proportion of elderly citizens in Europe, there is a lack of information on spatial heat-related elderly risks. Objectives Development of high-resolution, heat-related urban risk maps regarding the elderly population (≥65). Methods A long time-series (2001–2013) of remote sensing MODIS data, averaged over the summer period for eleven major Italian cities, were downscaled to obtain high spatial resolution (100 m) daytime and night-time land surface temperatures (LST). LST was estimated pixel-wise by applying two statistical model approaches: 1) the Linear Regression Model (LRM); 2) the Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Total and elderly population density data were extracted from the Joint Research Centre population grid (100 m) from the 2001 census (Eurostat source), and processed together using “Crichton’s Risk Triangle” hazard-risk methodology for obtaining a Heat-related Elderly Risk Index (HERI). Results The GAM procedure allowed for improved daytime and night-time LST estimations compared to the LRM approach. High-resolution maps of daytime and night-time HERI levels were developed for inland and coastal cities. Urban areas with the hazardous HERI level (very high risk) were not necessarily characterized by the highest temperatures. The hazardous HERI level was generally localized to encompass the city-centre in inland cities and the inner area in coastal cities. The two most dangerous HERI levels were greater in the coastal rather than inland cities. Conclusions This study shows the great potential of combining geospatial technologies and spatial demographic characteristics within a simple and flexible framework in order to provide high-resolution urban mapping of daytime and night-time HERI. In this way, potential areas for intervention are immediately identified with up-to-street level details. This information could support public health operators and facilitate coordination for heat-related emergencies. PMID:25985204

Cluster designs to assess the prevalence of acute malnutrition by lot quality assurance sampling: a validation study by computer simulation.

PubMed

Olives, Casey; Pagano, Marcello; Deitchler, Megan; Hedt, Bethany L; Egge, Kari; Valadez, Joseph J

2009-04-01

Traditional lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) methods require simple random sampling to guarantee valid results. However, cluster sampling has been proposed to reduce the number of random starting points. This study uses simulations to examine the classification error of two such designs, a 67x3 (67 clusters of three observations) and a 33x6 (33 clusters of six observations) sampling scheme to assess the prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM). Further, we explore the use of a 67x3 sequential sampling scheme for LQAS classification of GAM prevalence. Results indicate that, for independent clusters with moderate intracluster correlation for the GAM outcome, the three sampling designs maintain approximate validity for LQAS analysis. Sequential sampling can substantially reduce the average sample size that is required for data collection. The presence of intercluster correlation can impact dramatically the classification error that is associated with LQAS analysis.

Interactive short-term effects of equivalent temperature and air pollution on human mortality in Berlin and Lisbon.

PubMed

Burkart, Katrin; Canário, Paulo; Breitner, Susanne; Schneider, Alexandra; Scherber, Katharina; Andrade, Henrique; Alcoforado, Maria João; Endlicher, Wilfried

2013-12-01

There is substantial evidence that both temperature and air pollution are predictors of mortality. Thus far, few studies have focused on the potential interactive effects between the thermal environment and different measures of air pollution. Such interactions, however, are biologically plausible, as (extreme) temperature or increased air pollution might make individuals more susceptible to the effects of each respective predictor. This study investigated the interactive effects between equivalent temperature and air pollution (ozone and particulate matter) in Berlin (Germany) and Lisbon (Portugal) using different types of Poisson regression models. The findings suggest that interactive effects exist between air pollutants and equivalent temperature. Bivariate response surface models and generalised additive models (GAMs) including interaction terms showed an increased risk of mortality during periods of elevated equivalent temperatures and air pollution. Cold effects were mostly unaffected by air pollution. The study underscores the importance of air pollution control in mitigating heat effects. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multicriteria Cost Assessment and Logistics Modeling for Military Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief Aerial Delivery Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-01

vulnerable people will have access to this airdropped consumable aid (since nobody 1 is necessarily coordinating the distribution on the ground... VBA ) platforms (see Appendix B). In particular, we used GAMS v.23.9.3 with IBM ILOG CPLEX 12.4.0.1 to solve the stochastic, mixed-integer weighted...goal programming model, and we used Excel/ VBA to create an auto- matic, user-friendly interface with the decision maker for model input and analysis of

An Exploratory Study of Pre-Admission Predictors of Hardiness and Retention for United States Military Academy Cadets Using Regression Modeling

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

Character in Sports Index CV Cross Validation FAS Faculty Appraisal Score FFM Five-Factor Model, also known as the “Big Five” GAM... FFM ). USMA does not allow personality testing as a selection tool. However, perhaps we may discover whether pre-admission information can predict...characteristic, and personality factors as described by the Five Factor Model ( FFM ) to determine their effect on one’s academic performance at USMA (Clark

Linking livestock snow disaster mortality and environmental stressors in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: Quantification based on generalized additive models.

PubMed

Li, Yijia; Ye, Tao; Liu, Weihang; Gao, Yu

2018-06-01

Livestock snow disaster occurs widely in Central-to-Eastern Asian temperate and alpine grasslands. The effects of snow disaster on livestock involve a complex interaction between precipitation, vegetation, livestock, and herder communities. Quantifying the relationship among livestock mortality, snow hazard intensity, and seasonal environmental stressors is of great importance for snow disaster early warning, risk assessments, and adaptation strategies. Using a wide-spatial extent, long-time series, and event-based livestock snow disaster dataset, this study quantified those relationships and established a quantitative model of livestock mortality for prediction purpose for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. Estimations using generalized additive models (GAMs) were shown to accurately predict livestock mortality and mortality rate due to snow disaster, with adjusted-R 2 up to 0.794 and 0.666, respectively. These results showed that a longer snow disaster duration, lower temperatures during the disaster, and a drier summer with less vegetation all contribute significantly and non-linearly to higher mortality (rate), after controlling for elevation and socioeconomic conditions. These results can be readily applied to risk assessment and risk-based adaptation actions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Developmental times and life table statistics of Aulacorthum solani (Hemiptera: Aphididae) at six constant temperatures, with recommendations on the application of temperature-dependent development models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Developmental rates and age-specific life tables were determined for Aulacorthum solani (Kaltenbach) (known as foxglove aphid or glasshouse potato aphid) at 6 constant temperatures feeding on pansy (Viola × wittrockiana) (Gams.). Previously, there were no complete life table studies of this species...

Comparison of collision operators for the geodesic acoustic mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yang; Gao, Zhe

2015-04-01

The collisional damping rate and real frequency of the geodesic acoustic mode (GAM) are solved from a drift kinetic model with different collision operators. As the ion collision rate increases, the damping rate increases at low collision rate but decays at high ion collision rate. Different collision operators do not change the overall trend but influence the magnitude of the damping rate. The collision damping is much overestimated with the number-conserving-only Krook operator; on the other hand, using the Lorentz operator with a constant collision rate, the damping is overestimated at low collision rate but underestimated at high collision rate. The results from the Krook operator with both number and energy conservation terms, the Lorentz operator with an energy-dependent collision rate and the full Hirshman-Sigmar-Clarke collision operator are very close. Meanwhile, as the ion collision rate increases, the GAM frequency decreases from the collisionless value, \\sqrt {7/4+τ} {vti}/R , to \\sqrt {1+τ} {vti}/R for the number-conserving-only Krook operator, but to \\sqrt {5/3+τ} {vti}/R for the other four operators, which conserve both number and energy, where τ, vti and R are the ratio of electron temperature to ion temperature, the ion thermal velocity and the major radius, respectively. The results imply that the property of energy conservation of the collision operator is important to the dynamics of the GAM as well as that of number conservation, which may provide guidance in choosing collision operators in further study of the zonal flow (ZF) dynamics, such as the nonlinear simulation of the ZF-turbulence system.

Evaluation of the environmental epidemiologic data and methodology for the air quality standard in Beijing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xu; Jiang, Yanfeng; Yin, Ling; Liu, Bo; Du, Pengfei; Hassan, Mujtaba; Wang, Shigong; Li, Tanshi

2017-09-01

To evaluate the relationship between exposure to air pollutants and respiratory emergency room visits, a generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the exposure-effect relationship between air pollutants and respiratory emergency room visits. The results showed that NO2, SO2, and PM10 have positive relationships with respiratory disease. Concentration increases of 10 μg/m3 in NO2, SO2, and PM10 corresponded to 3.90% (95%CI 3.56-4.25), 0.81% (95%CI -0.09-1.72), and 0.64% (95%CI 0.55-0.74) increases in respiratory emergency room visits. In addition, there is a strong synergic effect of PM10 and NO2 on respiratory diseases. The threshold values of the national standard grade II limits used in Beijing should be adjusted. An appropriate standard could effectively promote a significant decline in respiratory room visits and would eventually be beneficial to air quality management in residential areas.

Spatial modelling of disease using data- and knowledge-driven approaches.

PubMed

Stevens, Kim B; Pfeiffer, Dirk U

2011-09-01

The purpose of spatial modelling in animal and public health is three-fold: describing existing spatial patterns of risk, attempting to understand the biological mechanisms that lead to disease occurrence and predicting what will happen in the medium to long-term future (temporal prediction) or in different geographical areas (spatial prediction). Traditional methods for temporal and spatial predictions include general and generalized linear models (GLM), generalized additive models (GAM) and Bayesian estimation methods. However, such models require both disease presence and absence data which are not always easy to obtain. Novel spatial modelling methods such as maximum entropy (MAXENT) and the genetic algorithm for rule set production (GARP) require only disease presence data and have been used extensively in the fields of ecology and conservation, to model species distribution and habitat suitability. Other methods, such as multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), use knowledge of the causal factors of disease occurrence to identify areas potentially suitable for disease. In addition to their less restrictive data requirements, some of these novel methods have been shown to outperform traditional statistical methods in predictive ability (Elith et al., 2006). This review paper provides details of some of these novel methods for mapping disease distribution, highlights their advantages and limitations, and identifies studies which have used the methods to model various aspects of disease distribution. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Exploration of the "larval pool": development and ground-truthing of a larval transport model off leeward Hawai'i.

PubMed

Wren, Johanna L K; Kobayashi, Donald R

2016-01-01

Most adult reef fish show site fidelity thus dispersal is limited to the mobile larval stage of the fish, and effective management of such species requires an understanding of the patterns of larval dispersal. In this study, we assess larval reef fish distributions in the waters west of the Big Island of Hawai'i using both in situ and model data. Catches from Cobb midwater trawls off west Hawai'i show that reef fish larvae are most numerous in offshore waters deeper than 3,000 m and consist largely of pre-settlement Pomacanthids, Acanthurids and Chaetodontids. Utilizing a Lagrangian larval dispersal model, we were able to replicate the observed shore fish distributions from the trawl data and we identified the 100 m depth strata as the most likely depth of occupancy. Additionally, our model showed that for larval shore fish with a pelagic larval duration longer than 40 days there was no significant change in settlement success in our model. By creating a general additive model (GAM) incorporating lunar phase and angle we were able to explain 67.5% of the variance between modeled and in situ Acanthurid abundances. We took steps towards creating a predictive larval distribution model that will greatly aid in understanding the spatiotemporal nature of the larval pool in west Hawai'i, and the dispersal of larvae throughout the Hawaiian archipelago.

An optimization model to agroindustrial sector in antioquia (Colombia, South America)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, J.

2015-06-01

This paper develops a proposal of a general optimization model for the flower industry, which is defined by using discrete simulation and nonlinear optimization, whose mathematical models have been solved by using ProModel simulation tools and Gams optimization. It defines the operations that constitute the production and marketing of the sector, statistically validated data taken directly from each operation through field work, the discrete simulation model of the operations and the linear optimization model of the entire industry chain are raised. The model is solved with the tools described above and presents the results validated in a case study.

Cluster designs to assess the prevalence of acute malnutrition by lot quality assurance sampling: a validation study by computer simulation

PubMed Central

Olives, Casey; Pagano, Marcello; Deitchler, Megan; Hedt, Bethany L; Egge, Kari; Valadez, Joseph J

2009-01-01

Traditional lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) methods require simple random sampling to guarantee valid results. However, cluster sampling has been proposed to reduce the number of random starting points. This study uses simulations to examine the classification error of two such designs, a 67×3 (67 clusters of three observations) and a 33×6 (33 clusters of six observations) sampling scheme to assess the prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM). Further, we explore the use of a 67×3 sequential sampling scheme for LQAS classification of GAM prevalence. Results indicate that, for independent clusters with moderate intracluster correlation for the GAM outcome, the three sampling designs maintain approximate validity for LQAS analysis. Sequential sampling can substantially reduce the average sample size that is required for data collection. The presence of intercluster correlation can impact dramatically the classification error that is associated with LQAS analysis. PMID:20011037

Who are gynandromorphophilic men? Characterizing men with sexual interest in transgender women.

PubMed

Hsu, K J; Rosenthal, A M; Miller, D I; Bailey, J M

2016-03-01

Gynandromorphophilia (GAMP) is sexual interest in gynandromorphs (GAMs; colloquially, shemales). GAMs possess a combination of male and female physical characteristics. Thus, GAMP presents a challenge to conventional understandings of sexual orientation as sexual attraction to the male v. female form. Speculation about GAMP men has included the ideas that they are homosexual, heterosexual, or especially, bisexual. We compared genital and subjective sexual arousal patterns of GAMP men with those of heterosexual and homosexual men. We also compared these groups on their self-ratings of sexual orientation and sexual interests. GAMP men had arousal patterns similar to those of heterosexual men and different from those of homosexual men. However, compared to heterosexual men, GAMP men were relatively more aroused by GAM erotic stimuli than by female erotic stimuli. GAMP men also scored higher than both heterosexual and homosexual men on a measure of autogynephilia. Results provide clear evidence that GAMP men are not homosexual. They also indicate that GAMP men are especially likely to eroticize the idea of being a woman.

Use of Gifu Anaerobic Medium for culturing 32 dominant species of human gut microbes and its evaluation based on short-chain fatty acids fermentation profiles.

PubMed

Gotoh, Aina; Nara, Misaki; Sugiyama, Yuta; Sakanaka, Mikiyasu; Yachi, Hiroyuki; Kitakata, Aya; Nakagawa, Akira; Minami, Hiromichi; Okuda, Shujiro; Katoh, Toshihiko; Katayama, Takane; Kurihara, Shin

2017-10-01

Recently, a "human gut microbial gene catalogue," which ranks the dominance of microbe genus/species in human fecal samples, was published. Most of the bacteria ranked in the catalog are currently publicly available; however, the growth media recommended by the distributors vary among species, hampering physiological comparisons among the bacteria. To address this problem, we evaluated Gifu anaerobic medium (GAM) as a standard medium. Forty-four publicly available species of the top 56 species listed in the "human gut microbial gene catalogue" were cultured in GAM, and out of these, 32 (72%) were successfully cultured. Short-chain fatty acids from the bacterial culture supernatants were then quantified, and bacterial metabolic pathways were predicted based on in silico genomic sequence analysis. Our system provides a useful platform for assessing growth properties and analyzing metabolites of dominant human gut bacteria grown in GAM and supplemented with compounds of interest.

Climate and landscape drive the pace and pattern of conifer encroachment into subalpine meadows.

PubMed

Lubetkin, Kaitlin C; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy; Kueppers, Lara M

2017-09-01

Mountain meadows have high biodiversity and help regulate stream water release following the snowmelt pulse. However, many meadows are experiencing woody plant encroachment, threatening these ecosystem services. While there have been field surveys of individual meadows and remote sensing-based landscape-scale studies of encroachment, what is missing is a broad-scale, ground-based study to understand common regional drivers, especially at high elevations, where land management has often played a less direct role. With this study, we ask: What are the climate and landscape conditions conducive to woody plant encroachment at the landscape scale, and how has historical climate variation affected tree recruitment in subalpine meadows over time? We measured density of encroaching trees across 340 subalpine meadows in the central Sierra Nevada, California, USA, and used generalized additive models (GAMs) to determine the relationship between landscape-scale patterns of encroachment and meadow environmental properties. We determined ages of trees in 30 survey meadows, used observed climate and GAMs to model the relationship between timing of recruitment and climate since the early 1900s, and extrapolated recruitment patterns into the future using downscaled climate scenarios. Encroachment was high among meadows with lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Douglas ex Loudon var. murrayana (Balf.) Engelm.) in the immediate vicinity, at lower elevations, with physical conditions favoring strong soil drying, and with maximum temperatures above or below average. Climatic conditions during the year of germination were unimportant, with tree recruitment instead depending on a 3-yr seed production period prior to germination and a 6-yr seedling establishment period following germination. Recruitment was high when the seed production period had high snowpack, and when the seedling establishment period had warm summer maximum temperatures, high summer precipitation, and high snowpack. Applying our temporal model to downscaled output from four global climate models indicated that the average meadow will shift to forest by the end of the 21st century. Sierra Nevada meadow encroachment by conifers is ubiquitous and associated with climate conditions increasingly favorable for tree recruitment, which will lead to substantial changes in subalpine meadows and the ecosystem services they provide. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

A low-altitude mountain range as an important refugium for two narrow endemics in the Southwest Australian Floristic Region biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Keppel, Gunnar; Robinson, Todd P; Wardell-Johnson, Grant W; Yates, Colin J; Van Niel, Kimberly P; Byrne, Margaret; Schut, Antonius G T

2017-01-01

Low-altitude mountains constitute important centres of diversity in landscapes with little topographic variation, such as the Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR). They also provide unique climatic and edaphic conditions that may allow them to function as refugia. We investigate whether the Porongurups (altitude 655 m) in the SWAFR will provide a refugium for the endemic Ornduffia calthifolia and O. marchantii under forecast climate change. We used species distribution modelling based on WorldClim climatic data, 30-m elevation data and a 2-m-resolution LiDAR-derived digital elevation model (DEM) to predict current and future distributions of the Ornduffia species at local and regional scales based on 605 field-based abundance estimates. Future distributions were forecast using RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 projections. To determine whether local edaphic and biotic factors impact these forecasts, we tested whether soil depth and vegetation height were significant predictors of abundance using generalized additive models (GAMs). Species distribution modelling revealed the importance of elevation and topographic variables at the local scale for determining distributions of both species, which also preferred shadier locations and higher slopes. However, O. calthifolia occurred at higher (cooler) elevations with rugged, concave topography, while O. marchantii occurred in disturbed sites at lower locations with less rugged, convex topography. Under future climates both species are likely to severely contract under the milder RCP2.6 projection (approx. 2 °C of global warming), but are unlikely to persist if warming is more severe (RCP4.5). GAMs showed that soil depth and vegetation height are important predictors of O. calthifolia and O. marchantii distributions, respectively. The Porongurups constitute an important refugium for O. calthifolia and O. marchantii, but limits to this capacity may be reached if global warming exceeds 2 °C. This capacity is moderated at local scales by biotic and edaphic factors. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Impact and the Implications of Policy Regarding the Organisation of Support for Pupils with Dyslexia in Irish Primary Mainstream Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tiernan, Bairbre; Casserly, Ann Marie

2018-01-01

There have been vast changes in relation to the way educational teaching support provision is organised for pupils with dyslexia in Ireland. A qualitative research approach was utilised to examine the impact and implications of the General Allocation Model (GAM) regarding the organisation of support for pupils with dyslexia in Irish Primary…

Results From Estonia's 2016 Report Card on Physical Activity for Children and Youth.

PubMed

Kruusamäe, Helena; Kull, Merike; Mooses, Kerli; Riso, Eva-Maria; Jürimäe, Jaak

2016-11-01

The 2016 Report Card on Physical Activity for Children and Youth, the first of its kind, aims to set baseline physical activity (PA) indicators using the Active Healthy Kids Global Alliance grading system. A research work group analyzed and selected data for the grade assignment meeting (GAM). During the GAM, 17 leading researchers and policy experts from Estonia assessed the data and assigned grades for each of the 9 PA indicators. In addition, recommendations were provided for further actions to improve the grades. Grades from A (highest) to F (lowest) were assigned as follows: 1) Overall PA (F); 2) Organized Sport (C); 3) Active Play [incomplete data (INC)]; 4) Active Transportation (INC); 5) Sedentary Behaviors (F); 6) Family and Peers (C); 7) School (C); 8) Community and the Built Environment (B); and 9) Government (C). An indicator was marked as incomplete (INC) when there was a lack of representative quality data. Evidence suggests that PA levels of Estonian children remain very low, despite moderately supportive social, environmental, and regulatory factors. There are many challenges to overcome in supporting and promoting PA of children and youth (eg, cross-sectional cooperation, implementing interventions, changing social norms, empowerment of parents and educational institutions).

The effect of atmospheric thermal conditions and urban thermal pollution on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Burkart, Katrin; Schneider, Alexandra; Breitner, Susanne; Khan, Mobarak Hossain; Krämer, Alexander; Endlicher, Wilfried

2011-01-01

This study assessed the effect of temperature and thermal atmospheric conditions on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Bangladesh. In particular, differences in the response to elevated temperatures between urban and rural areas were investigated. Generalized additive models (GAMs) for daily death counts, adjusted for trend, season, day of the month and age were separately fitted for urban and rural areas. Breakpoint models were applied for determining the increase in mortality above and below a threshold (equivalent) temperature. Generally, a 'V'-shaped (equivalent) temperature-mortality curve with increasing mortality at low and high temperatures was observed. Particularly, urban areas suffered from heat-related mortality with a steep increase above a specific threshold. This adverse heat effect may well increase with ongoing urbanization and the intensification of the urban heat island due to the densification of building structures. Moreover, rising temperatures due to climate change could aggravate thermal stress. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting the Distribution of Yellowfin Tuna in Philippine Waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez, G. J. P.; Leonardo, E. M.

2015-12-01

The Philippines is considered as a major tuna producer in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean, both for domestic consumption and on industrial scale. However, with the ever-increasing demand of growing population, it has always been a challenge to achieve sustainable fishing. The creation of satellite-derived potential fishing zone maps is a technology that has been adopted by advanced countries for almost three decades already and has led to reduction in search times by up to 40%. In this study, a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) is developed to predict the distribution of the Yellowfin tuna species in seas surrounding the Philippines based on the Catch-Per-Unit-Effort (CPUE) index. Level 3 gridded chlorophyll-a and sea surface temperature from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Aqua satellite of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) are the main input parameters of the model. Chlorophyll-a is linked with the presence of phytoplankton, which indicates primary productivity and suggests potential regions of fish aggregation. Fish also prefers to stay in regions where the temperature is stable, thus the sea surface temperature fronts serve as a guide to locate concentrations of fish school. Historical monthly tuna catch data from Western and Central Pacific Commissions (WCPFC) is used to train the model. The resulting predictions are converted to potential fishing zone maps and are evaluated within and beyond the historical time range of the training data used. Diagnostic tests involving adjusted R2 value, GAM residual plots and root mean square error value are used to assess the accuracy of the model. The generated maps were able to confirm locations of known tuna fishing grounds in Mindanao and other parts of the country, as well us detect their seasonality and interannual variability. To improve the performance of the model, ancillary data such as surface winds reanalysis from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is also incorporated in the model. Results of the model are further analyzed by comparing the fish maps with the night fishing activities in the Philippine waters. This was done through the use of night light monthly images gathered by Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) within the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

Drift and geodesic effects on the ion sound eigenmode in tokamak plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elfimov, A. G., E-mail: elfimov@if.usp.br; Smolyakov, A. I., E-mail: andrei.smolyakov@usask.ca; Melnikov, A. V.

A kinetic treatment of geodesic acoustic modes (GAMs), taking into account ion parallel dynamics, drift and the second poloidal harmonic effects is presented. It is shown that first and second harmonics of the ion sound modes, which have respectively positive and negative radial dispersion, can be coupled due to the geodesic and drift effects. This coupling results in the drift geodesic ion sound eigenmode with a frequency below the standard GAM continuum frequency. Such eigenmode may be able to explain the split modes observed in some experiments.

Multi-site time series analysis of acute effects of multiple air pollutants on respiratory mortality: a population-based study in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Yang, Yang; Cao, Yang; Li, Wenjing; Li, Runkui; Wang, Meng; Wu, Zhenglai; Xu, Qun

2015-03-01

In large cities in China, the traffic-related air pollution has become the focus of attention, and its adverse effects on health have raised public concerns. We conducted a study to quantify the association between exposure to three major traffic-related pollutants - particulate matter < 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and the risk of respiratory mortality in Beijing, China at a daily spatiotemporal resolution. We used the generalized additive models (GAM) with natural splines and principal component regression method to associate air pollutants with daily respiratory mortality, covariates and confounders. The GAM analysis adjusting for the collinearity among pollutants indicated that PM10, CO and NO2 had significant effects on daily respiratory mortality in Beijing. An interquartile range increase in 2-day moving averages concentrations of day 0 and day 1 of PM10, CO and NO2 corresponded to 0.99 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.30, 1.67], 0.89 (95% CI: 0.27, 1.51) and 0.95 (95% CI: 0.29, 1.61) percent increase in daily respiratory mortality, respectively. The effects were varied across the districts. The strongest effects were found in two rural districts and one suburban district but significant in only one district. In conclusion, high level of several traffic-related air pollutants is associated with an increased risk of respiratory mortality in Beijing over a short-time period. The high risk found in rural areas suggests a potential susceptible sub-population with undiagnosed respiratory diseases in these areas. Although the rural areas have relatively lower air pollution levels, they deserve more attention to respiratory disease prevention and air pollution reduction. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Illegal use of natural resources in federal protected areas of the Brazilian Amazon

PubMed Central

Silva, Jose M.C.; Michalski, Fernanda

2017-01-01

Background The Brazilian Amazon is the world’s largest rainforest regions and plays a key role in biodiversity conservation as well as climate adaptation and mitigation. The government has created a network of protected areas (PAs) to ensure long-term conservation of the region. However, despite the importance of and positive advances in the establishment of PAs, natural resource depletion in the Brazilian Amazon is pervasive. Methods We evaluated a total of 4,243 official law enforcement records generated between 2010 and 2015 to understand the geographical distribution of the illegal use of resources in federal PAs in the Brazilian Amazon. We classified illegal activities into ten categories and used generalized additive models (GAMs) to evaluate the relationship between illegal use of natural resources inside PAs with management type, age of PAs, population density, and accessibility. Results We found 27 types of illegal use of natural resources that were grouped into 10 categories of illegal activities. Most infractions were related to suppression and degradation of vegetation (37.40%), followed by illegal fishing (27.30%) and hunting activities (18.20%). The explanatory power of the GAMs was low for all categories of illegal activity, with a maximum explained variation of 41.2% for illegal activities as a whole, and a minimum of 14.6% for hunting activities. Discussion These findings demonstrate that even though PAs are fundamental for nature conservation in the Brazilian Amazon, the pressures and threats posed by human activities include a broad range of illegal uses of natural resources. Population density up to 50 km from a PA is a key variable, influencing illegal activities. These threats endanger long-term conservation and many efforts are still needed to maintain PAs that are large enough and sufficiently intact to maintain ecosystem functions and protect biodiversity. PMID:29038758

Weather variables and the El Niño Southern Oscillation may drive the epidemics of dengue in Guangdong Province, China.

PubMed

Xiao, Jianpeng; Liu, Tao; Lin, Hualiang; Zhu, Guanghu; Zeng, Weilin; Li, Xing; Zhang, Bing; Song, Tie; Deng, Aiping; Zhang, Meng; Zhong, Haojie; Lin, Shao; Rutherford, Shannon; Meng, Xiaojing; Zhang, Yonghui; Ma, Wenjun

2018-05-15

To investigate the periodicity of dengue and the relationship between weather variables, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and dengue incidence in Guangdong Province, China. Guangdong monthly dengue incidence and weather data and El Niño index information for 1988 to 2015 were collected. Wavelet analysis was used to investigate the periodicity of dengue, and the coherence and time-lag phases between dengue and weather variables and ENSO. The Generalized Additive Model (GAM) approach was further employed to explore the dose-response relationship of those variables on dengue. Finally, random forest analysis was applied to measure the relative importance of the climate predictors. Dengue in Guangdong has a dominant annual periodicity over the period 1988-2015. Mean minimum temperature, total precipitation, and mean relative humidity are positively related to dengue incidence for 2, 3, and 4months lag, respectively. ENSO in the previous 12months may have driven the dengue epidemics in 1995, 2002, 2006 and 2010 in Guangdong. GAM analysis indicates an approximate linear association for the temperature-dengue relationship, approximate logarithm curve for the humidity-dengue relationship, and an inverted U-shape association for the precipitation-dengue (the threshold of precipitation is 348mm per month) and ENSO-dengue relationships (the threshold of ENSO index is 0.6°C). The monthly mean minimum temperature in the previous two months was identified as the most important climate variable associated with dengue epidemics in Guangdong Province. Our study suggests weather factors and ENSO are important predictors of dengue incidence. These findings provide useful evidence for early warning systems to help to respond to the global expansion of dengue fever. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Illegal use of natural resources in federal protected areas of the Brazilian Amazon.

PubMed

Kauano, Érico E; Silva, Jose M C; Michalski, Fernanda

2017-01-01

The Brazilian Amazon is the world's largest rainforest regions and plays a key role in biodiversity conservation as well as climate adaptation and mitigation. The government has created a network of protected areas (PAs) to ensure long-term conservation of the region. However, despite the importance of and positive advances in the establishment of PAs, natural resource depletion in the Brazilian Amazon is pervasive. We evaluated a total of 4,243 official law enforcement records generated between 2010 and 2015 to understand the geographical distribution of the illegal use of resources in federal PAs in the Brazilian Amazon. We classified illegal activities into ten categories and used generalized additive models (GAMs) to evaluate the relationship between illegal use of natural resources inside PAs with management type, age of PAs, population density, and accessibility. We found 27 types of illegal use of natural resources that were grouped into 10 categories of illegal activities. Most infractions were related to suppression and degradation of vegetation (37.40%), followed by illegal fishing (27.30%) and hunting activities (18.20%). The explanatory power of the GAMs was low for all categories of illegal activity, with a maximum explained variation of 41.2% for illegal activities as a whole, and a minimum of 14.6% for hunting activities. These findings demonstrate that even though PAs are fundamental for nature conservation in the Brazilian Amazon, the pressures and threats posed by human activities include a broad range of illegal uses of natural resources. Population density up to 50 km from a PA is a key variable, influencing illegal activities. These threats endanger long-term conservation and many efforts are still needed to maintain PAs that are large enough and sufficiently intact to maintain ecosystem functions and protect biodiversity.

Trends in esophageal cancer mortality in China during 1987-2009: age, period and birth cohort analyzes.

PubMed

Guo, Pi; Li, Ke

2012-04-01

Esophageal cancer is one of the most commonly diagnosed malignant tumors in China. The aim of this study was to provide the representative and comprehensive informations about the long-term mortality trends of this disease in China between 1987 and 2009, using joinpoint regression and generalized additive models (GAMs). Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), overall and truncated (35-64 years), were calculated using the direct calculation method, and joinpoint regression was performed to obtain the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). GAMs were fitted to study the effects of age, period and birth cohort on mortality trends. ASMR exhibited an overall remarked decline for rural females (EAPC=-2.3 95%CI: -3.3, -1.2), urban males (EAPC=-1.8 95%CI: -2.6, -1.0) and urban females (EAPC=-3.7 95%CI: -4.9, -2.4), but a small drop observed was not statistically significant for rural males (EAPC=-0.9 95%CI: -2.0, 0.3). The declines in ASMR were more noticeable for urban residents in recent years. Among all the residents, age effect showed an progressively increasing trend, whereas cohort effect declined steadily after the year corresponding to the maximum risk value. Period effect seemed to remain substantially unchanged throughout the years. Although variations in mortality rates were observed according to sex and area, the overall decreasing trends in esophageal cancer mortality were found in most Chinese people, aside from rural males. The findings could correspond to the changes in age- and cohort-related factors in the population. Further study is required to understand these potential factors. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of digital soil mapping approaches with large sets of environmental covariates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nussbaum, Madlene; Spiess, Kay; Baltensweiler, Andri; Grob, Urs; Keller, Armin; Greiner, Lucie; Schaepman, Michael E.; Papritz, Andreas

2018-01-01

The spatial assessment of soil functions requires maps of basic soil properties. Unfortunately, these are either missing for many regions or are not available at the desired spatial resolution or down to the required soil depth. The field-based generation of large soil datasets and conventional soil maps remains costly. Meanwhile, legacy soil data and comprehensive sets of spatial environmental data are available for many regions. Digital soil mapping (DSM) approaches relating soil data (responses) to environmental data (covariates) face the challenge of building statistical models from large sets of covariates originating, for example, from airborne imaging spectroscopy or multi-scale terrain analysis. We evaluated six approaches for DSM in three study regions in Switzerland (Berne, Greifensee, ZH forest) by mapping the effective soil depth available to plants (SD), pH, soil organic matter (SOM), effective cation exchange capacity (ECEC), clay, silt, gravel content and fine fraction bulk density for four soil depths (totalling 48 responses). Models were built from 300-500 environmental covariates by selecting linear models through (1) grouped lasso and (2) an ad hoc stepwise procedure for robust external-drift kriging (georob). For (3) geoadditive models we selected penalized smoothing spline terms by component-wise gradient boosting (geoGAM). We further used two tree-based methods: (4) boosted regression trees (BRTs) and (5) random forest (RF). Lastly, we computed (6) weighted model averages (MAs) from the predictions obtained from methods 1-5. Lasso, georob and geoGAM successfully selected strongly reduced sets of covariates (subsets of 3-6 % of all covariates). Differences in predictive performance, tested on independent validation data, were mostly small and did not reveal a single best method for 48 responses. Nevertheless, RF was often the best among methods 1-5 (28 of 48 responses), but was outcompeted by MA for 14 of these 28 responses. RF tended to over-fit the data. The performance of BRT was slightly worse than RF. GeoGAM performed poorly on some responses and was the best only for 7 of 48 responses. The prediction accuracy of lasso was intermediate. All models generally had small bias. Only the computationally very efficient lasso had slightly larger bias because it tended to under-fit the data. Summarizing, although differences were small, the frequencies of the best and worst performance clearly favoured RF if a single method is applied and MA if multiple prediction models can be developed.

The Development of Web-based Graphical User Interface for Unified Modeling Data with Multi (Correlated) Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Made Tirta, I.; Anggraeni, Dian

2018-04-01

Statistical models have been developed rapidly into various directions to accommodate various types of data. Data collected from longitudinal, repeated measured, clustered data (either continuous, binary, count, or ordinal), are more likely to be correlated. Therefore statistical model for independent responses, such as Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Generalized Additive Model (GAM) are not appropriate. There are several models available to apply for correlated responses including GEEs (Generalized Estimating Equations), for marginal model and various mixed effect model such as GLMM (Generalized Linear Mixed Models) and HGLM (Hierarchical Generalized Linear Models) for subject spesific models. These models are available on free open source software R, but they can only be accessed through command line interface (using scrit). On the othe hand, most practical researchers very much rely on menu based or Graphical User Interface (GUI). We develop, using Shiny framework, standard pull down menu Web-GUI that unifies most models for correlated responses. The Web-GUI has accomodated almost all needed features. It enables users to do and compare various modeling for repeated measure data (GEE, GLMM, HGLM, GEE for nominal responses) much more easily trough online menus. This paper discusses the features of the Web-GUI and illustrates the use of them. In General we find that GEE, GLMM, HGLM gave very closed results.

Crustal and upper-mantle structure beneath ice-covered regions in Antarctica from S-wave receiver functions and implications for heat flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez, C.; Nyblade, A.; Hansen, S. E.; Wiens, D. A.; Anandakrishnan, S.; Aster, R. C.; Huerta, A. D.; Shore, P.; Wilson, T.

2016-03-01

S-wave receiver functions (SRFs) are used to investigate crustal and upper-mantle structure beneath several ice-covered areas of Antarctica. Moho S-to-P (Sp) arrivals are observed at ˜6-8 s in SRF stacks for stations in the Gamburtsev Mountains (GAM) and Vostok Highlands (VHIG), ˜5-6 s for stations in the Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) and the Wilkes Basin (WILK), and ˜3-4 s for stations in the West Antarctic Rift System (WARS) and the Marie Byrd Land Dome (MBLD). A grid search is used to model the Moho Sp conversion time with Rayleigh wave phase velocities from 18 to 30 s period to estimate crustal thickness and mean crustal shear wave velocity. The Moho depths obtained are between 43 and 58 km for GAM, 36 and 47 km for VHIG, 39 and 46 km for WILK, 39 and 45 km for TAM, 19 and 29 km for WARS and 20 and 35 km for MBLD. SRF stacks for GAM, VHIG, WILK and TAM show little evidence of Sp arrivals coming from upper-mantle depths. SRF stacks for WARS and MBLD show Sp energy arriving from upper-mantle depths but arrival amplitudes do not rise above bootstrapped uncertainty bounds. The age and thickness of the crust is used as a heat flow proxy through comparison with other similar terrains where heat flow has been measured. Crustal structure in GAM, VHIG and WILK is similar to Precambrian terrains in other continents where heat flow ranges from ˜41 to 58 mW m-2, suggesting that heat flow across those areas of East Antarctica is not elevated. For the WARS, we use the Cretaceous Newfoundland-Iberia rifted margins and the Mesozoic-Tertiary North Sea rift as tectonic analogues. The low-to-moderate heat flow reported for the Newfoundland-Iberia margins (40-65 mW m-2) and North Sea rift (60-85 mW m-2) suggest that heat flow across the WARS also may not be elevated. However, the possibility of high heat flow associated with localized Cenozoic extension or Cenozoic-recent magmatic activity in some parts of the WARS cannot be ruled out.

Violent video game effects on children and adolescents. A review of the literature.

PubMed

Gentile, D A; Stone, W

2005-12-01

Studies of violent video games on children and adolescents were reviewed to: 1) determine the multiple effects; 2) to offer critical observations about common strengths and weaknesses in the literature; 3) to provide a broader perspective to understand the research on the effects of video games. The review includes general theoretical and methodological considerations of media violence, and description of the general aggression model (GAM). The literature was evaluated in relation to the GAM. Published literature, including meta-analyses, are reviewed, as well as relevant unpublished material, such as conference papers and dissertations. Overall, the evidence supports hypotheses that violent video game play is related to aggressive affect, physiological arousal, aggressive cognitions, and aggressive behaviours. The effects of video game play on school performance are also evaluated, and the review concludes with a dimensional approach to video game effects. The dimensional approach evaluates video game effects in terms of amount, content, form, and mechanics, and appears to have many advantages for understanding and predicting the multiple types of effects demonstrated in the literature.

Investigating the radial structure of axisymmetric fluctuations in the TCV tokamak with local and global gyrokinetic GENE simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merlo, G.; Brunner, S.; Huang, Z.; Coda, S.; Görler, T.; Villard, L.; Bañón Navarro, A.; Dominski, J.; Fontana, M.; Jenko, F.; Porte, L.; Told, D.

2018-03-01

Axisymmetric (n = 0) density fluctuations measured in the TCV tokamak are observed to possess a frequency f 0 which is either varying (radially dispersive oscillations) or a constant over a large fraction of the plasma minor radius (radially global oscillations) as reported in a companion paper (Z Huang et al, this issue). Given that f 0 scales with the sound speed and given the poloidal structure of density fluctuations, these oscillations were interpreted as Geodesic Acoustic Modes, even though f 0 is in fact smaller than the local linear GAM frequency {f}{GAM}. In this work we employ the Eulerian gyrokinetic code GENE to simulate TCV relevant conditions and investigate the nature and properties of these oscillations, in particular their relation to the safety factor profile. Local and global simulations are carried out and a good qualitative agreement is observed between experiments and simulations. By varying also the plasma temperature and density profiles, we conclude that a variation of the edge safety factor alone is not sufficient to induce a transition from global to radially inhomogeneous oscillations, as was initially suggested by experimental results. This transition appears instead to be the combined result of variations in the different plasma profiles, collisionality and finite machine size effects. Simulations also show that radially global GAM-like oscillations can be observed in all fluxes and fluctuation fields, suggesting that they are the result of a complex nonlinear process involving also finite toroidal mode numbers and not just linear global GAM eigenmodes.

Electromagnetic characteristics of geodesic acoustic mode in the COMPASS tokamak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seidl, J.; Krbec, J.; Hron, M.; Adamek, J.; Hidalgo, C.; Markovic, T.; Melnikov, A. V.; Stockel, J.; Weinzettl, V.; Aftanas, M.; Bilkova, P.; Bogar, O.; Bohm, P.; Eliseev, L. G.; Hacek, P.; Havlicek, J.; Horacek, J.; Imrisek, M.; Kovarik, K.; Mitosinkova, K.; Panek, R.; Tomes, M.; Vondracek, P.

2017-12-01

Axisymmetric geodesic acoustic mode (GAM) oscillations of the magnetic field, plasma potential and electron temperature have been identified on the COMPASS tokamak. This work brings an overview of their electromagnetic properties studied by multi-pin reciprocating probes and magnetic diagnostics. The n  =  0 fluctuations form a continuous spectrum in limited plasmas but change to a single dominant peak in diverted configuration. At the edge of diverted plasmas the mode exhibits a non-local structure with a constant frequency over a radial extent of at least several centimeters. Nevertheless, the frequency still reacts on temporal changes of plasma temperature caused by an auxiliary NBI heating as well as those induced by periodic sawtooth crashes. Radial wavelength of the mode is found to be about 1-4 cm, with values larger for the plasma potential than for the electron temperature. The mode propagates radially outward and its radial structure induces oscillations of a poloidal E  ×  B velocity, that can locally reach the level of the mean poloidal flow. Bicoherence analysis confirms a non-linear interaction of GAM with a broadband ambient turbulence. The mode exhibits strong axisymmetric magnetic oscillations that are studied both in the poloidal and radial components of the magnetic field. Their poloidal standing-wave structure was confirmed and described for the first time in diverted plasmas. In limited plasmas their amplitude scales with safety factor. Strong suppression of the magnetic GAM component, and possibly of GAM itself, is observed during co-current but not counter-current NBI.

Identification and analysis of recombineering functions from Gram-negative and Gram-positive bacteria and their phages

PubMed Central

Datta, Simanti; Costantino, Nina; Zhou, Xiaomei; Court, Donald L.

2008-01-01

We report the identification and functional analysis of nine genes from Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria and their phages that are similar to lambda (λ) bet or Escherichia coli recT. Beta and RecT are single-strand DNA annealing proteins, referred to here as recombinases. Each of the nine other genes when expressed in E. coli carries out oligonucleotide-mediated recombination. To our knowledge, this is the first study showing single-strand recombinase activity from diverse bacteria. Similar to bet and recT, most of these other recombinases were found to be associated with putative exonuclease genes. Beta and RecT in conjunction with their cognate exonucleases carry out recombination of linear double-strand DNA. Among four of these foreign recombinase/exonuclease pairs tested for recombination with double-strand DNA, three had activity, albeit barely detectable. Thus, although these recombinases can function in E. coli to catalyze oligonucleotide recombination, the double-strand DNA recombination activities with their exonuclease partners were inefficient. This study also demonstrated that Gam, by inhibiting host RecBCD nuclease activity, helps to improve the efficiency of λ Red-mediated recombination with linear double-strand DNA, but Gam is not absolutely essential. Thus, in other bacterial species where Gam analogs have not been identified, double-strand DNA recombination may still work in the absence of a Gam-like function. We anticipate that at least some of the recombineering systems studied here will potentiate oligonucleotide and double-strand DNA-mediated recombineering in their native or related bacteria. PMID:18230724

Gamming Chairs and Gimballed Beds: Seafaring Women on Board Nineteenth-Century Ships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seaborn, Laurel

2017-04-01

During the nineteenth century, many captains' wives from New England took up residence on the ships their husbands commanded. This article focuses on how those women at sea attempted to use material culture to domesticate their voyaging space. While writing in their journals, they referred to not only the small personal things such as books and knitting needles that they brought in their trunks, but also large items, built for and used by women, such as gamming chairs, deckhouses, parlor organs, sewing machines, and gimballed beds. Mary Brewster attempted to retreat from the ship's officers in her small deckhouse, Annie Brassey slept in the gimballed bed, and Lucy Lord Howes disembarked in a gamming chair when captured by Confederates during the Civil War. Evidence of these artifacts found during shipwreck archaeology could be used to further what is known of the culture aboard ships on which women lived. Analysis of the material culture reveals how a captain's wife domesticated space, altered her environment, and made a home on the ship for her family.

Multidimensional analysis of fast-spectrum material replacement measurements for systematic estimation of cross section uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klann, P. G.; Lantz, E.; Mayo, W. T.

1973-01-01

A series of central core and core-reflector interface sample replacement experiments for 16 materials performed in the NASA heavy-metal-reflected, fast spectrum critical assembly (NCA) were analyzed in four and 13 groups using the GAM 2 cross-section set. The individual worths obtained by TDSN and DOT multidimensional transport theory calculations showed significant differences from the experimental results. These were attributed to cross-section uncertainties in the GAM 2 cross sections. Simultaneous analysis of the measured and calculated sample worths permitted separation of the worths into capture and scattering components which systematically provided fast spectrum averaged correction factors to the magnitudes of the GAM 2 absorption and scattering cross sections. Several Los Alamos clean critical assemblies containing Oy, Ta, and Mo as well as one of the NCA compositions were reanalyzed using the corrected cross sections. In all cases the eigenvalues were significantly improved and were recomputed to within 1 percent of the experimental eigenvalue. A comparable procedure may be used for ENDF cross sections when these are available.

Spatial point analysis based on dengue surveys at household level in central Brazil

PubMed Central

Siqueira-Junior, João B; Maciel, Ivan J; Barcellos, Christovam; Souza, Wayner V; Carvalho, Marilia S; Nascimento, Nazareth E; Oliveira, Renato M; Morais-Neto, Otaliba; Martelli, Celina MT

2008-01-01

Background Dengue virus (DENV) affects nonimunne human populations in tropical and subtropical regions. In the Americas, dengue has drastically increased in the last two decades and Brazil is considered one of the most affected countries. The high frequency of asymptomatic infection makes difficult to estimate prevalence of infection using registered cases and to locate high risk intra-urban area at population level. The goal of this spatial point analysis was to identify potential high-risk intra-urban areas of dengue, using data collected at household level from surveys. Methods Two household surveys took place in the city of Goiania (~1.1 million population), Central Brazil in the year 2001 and 2002. First survey screened 1,586 asymptomatic individuals older than 5 years of age. Second survey 2,906 asymptomatic volunteers, same age-groups, were selected by multistage sampling (census tracts; blocks; households) using available digital maps. Sera from participants were tested by dengue virus-specific IgM/IgG by EIA. A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was used to detect the spatial varying risk over the region. Initially without any fixed covariates, to depict the overall risk map, followed by a model including the main covariates and the year, where the resulting maps show the risk associated with living place, controlled for the individual risk factors. This method has the advantage to generate smoothed risk factors maps, adjusted by socio-demographic covariates. Results The prevalence of antibody against dengue infection was 37.3% (95%CI [35.5–39.1]) in the year 2002; 7.8% increase in one-year interval. The spatial variation in risk of dengue infection significantly changed when comparing 2001 with 2002, (ORadjusted = 1.35; p < 0.001), while controlling for potential confounders using GAM model. Also increasing age and low education levels were associated with dengue infection. Conclusion This study showed spatial heterogeneity in the risk areas of dengue when using a spatial multivariate approach in a short time interval. Data from household surveys pointed out that low prevalence areas in 2001 surveys shifted to high-risk area in consecutive year. This mapping of dengue risks should give insights for control interventions in urban areas. PMID:18937868

Comparing meta-analysis and ecological-longitudinal analysis in time-series studies. A case study of the effects of air pollution on mortality in three Spanish cities.

PubMed

Saez, M; Figueiras, A; Ballester, F; Pérez-Hoyos, S; Ocaña, R; Tobías, A

2001-06-01

The objective of this paper is to introduce a different approach, called the ecological-longitudinal, to carrying out pooled analysis in time series ecological studies. Because it gives a larger number of data points and, hence, increases the statistical power of the analysis, this approach, unlike conventional ones, allows the complementation of aspects such as accommodation of random effect models, of lags, of interaction between pollutants and between pollutants and meteorological variables, that are hardly implemented in conventional approaches. The approach is illustrated by providing quantitative estimates of the short-term effects of air pollution on mortality in three Spanish cities, Barcelona, Valencia and Vigo, for the period 1992-1994. Because the dependent variable was a count, a Poisson generalised linear model was first specified. Several modelling issues are worth mentioning. Firstly, because the relations between mortality and explanatory variables were non-linear, cubic splines were used for covariate control, leading to a generalised additive model, GAM. Secondly, the effects of the predictors on the response were allowed to occur with some lag. Thirdly, the residual autocorrelation, because of imperfect control, was controlled for by means of an autoregressive Poisson GAM. Finally, the longitudinal design demanded the consideration of the existence of individual heterogeneity, requiring the consideration of mixed models. The estimates of the relative risks obtained from the individual analyses varied across cities, particularly those associated with sulphur dioxide. The highest relative risks corresponded to black smoke in Valencia. These estimates were higher than those obtained from the ecological-longitudinal analysis. Relative risks estimated from this latter analysis were practically identical across cities, 1.00638 (95% confidence intervals 1.0002, 1.0011) for a black smoke increase of 10 microg/m(3) and 1.00415 (95% CI 1.0001, 1.0007) for a increase of 10 microg/m(3) of sulphur dioxide. Because the statistical power is higher than in the individual analysis more interactions were statistically significant, especially those among air pollutants and meteorological variables. Air pollutant levels were related to mortality in the three cities of the study, Barcelona, Valencia and Vigo. These results were consistent with similar studies in other cities, with other multicentric studies and coherent with both, previous individual, for each city, and multicentric studies for all three cities.

Immunomagnetic cell separation, imaging, and analysis using Captivate ferrofluids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Laurie; Beechem, Joseph M.

2002-05-01

We have developed applications of CaptivateTM ferrofluids, paramagnetic particles (approximately 200 nm diameter), for isolating and analyzing cell populations in combination with fluorescence-based techniques. Using a microscope-mounted magnetic yoke and sample insertion chamber, fluorescent images of magnetically captured cells were obtained in culture media, buffer, or whole blood, while non-magnetically labeled cells sedimented to the bottom of the chamber. We combined this immunomagnetic cell separation and imaging technique with fluorescent staining, spectroscopy, and analysis to evaluate cell surface receptor-containing subpopulations, live/dead cell ratios, apoptotic/dead cell ratios, etc. The acquired images were analyzed using multi-color parameters, as produced by nucleic acid staining, esterase activity, or antibody labeling. In addition, the immunomagnetically separated cell fractions were assessed through microplate analysis using the CyQUANT Cell Proliferation Assay. These methods should provide an inexpensive alternative to some flow cytometric measurements. The binding capacities of the streptavidin- labled Captivate ferrofluid (SA-FF) particles were determined to be 8.8 nmol biotin/mg SA-FF, using biotin-4- fluorescein, and > 106 cells/mg SA-FF, using several cell types labeled with biotinylated probes. For goat anti- mouse IgG-labeled ferrofluids (GAM-FF), binding capacities were established to be approximately 0.2 - 7.5 nmol protein/mg GAM-FF using fluorescent conjugates of antibodies, protein G, and protein A.

MARTe: A Multiplatform Real-Time Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neto, André C.; Sartori, Filippo; Piccolo, Fabio; Vitelli, Riccardo; De Tommasi, Gianmaria; Zabeo, Luca; Barbalace, Antonio; Fernandes, Horacio; Valcarcel, Daniel F.; Batista, Antonio J. N.

2010-04-01

Development of real-time applications is usually associated with nonportable code targeted at specific real-time operating systems. The boundary between hardware drivers, system services, and user code is commonly not well defined, making the development in the target host significantly difficult. The Multithreaded Application Real-Time executor (MARTe) is a framework built over a multiplatform library that allows the execution of the same code in different operating systems. The framework provides the high-level interfaces with hardware, external configuration programs, and user interfaces, assuring at the same time hard real-time performances. End-users of the framework are required to define and implement algorithms inside a well-defined block of software, named Generic Application Module (GAM), that is executed by the real-time scheduler. Each GAM is reconfigurable with a set of predefined configuration meta-parameters and interchanges information using a set of data pipes that are provided as inputs and required as output. Using these connections, different GAMs can be chained either in series or parallel. GAMs can be developed and debugged in a non-real-time system and, only once the robustness of the code and correctness of the algorithm are verified, deployed to the real-time system. The software also supplies a large set of utilities that greatly ease the interaction and debugging of a running system. Among the most useful are a highly efficient real-time logger, HTTP introspection of real-time objects, and HTTP remote configuration. MARTe is currently being used to successfully drive the plasma vertical stabilization controller on the largest magnetic confinement fusion device in the world, with a control loop cycle of 50 ?s and a jitter under 1 ?s. In this particular project, MARTe is used with the Real-Time Application Interface (RTAI)/Linux operating system exploiting the new ?86 multicore processors technology.

Investigating the radial structure of axisymmetric fluctuations in the TCV tokamak with local and global gyrokinetic GENE simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Merlo, Gabriele; Brunner, Stephan; Huang, Zhouji

Axisymmetric (n=0) density fluctuations measured in the TCV tokamak are observed to possess a frequency f₀ which is either varying (radially dispersive oscillations) or a constant over a large fraction of the plasma minor radius (radially global oscillations) as reported in a companion paper [Z. Huang et al., this issue]. Given that f₀ scales with the sound speed and given the poloidal structure of density fluctuations, these oscillations were interpreted as Geodesic Acoustic Modes, even though f₀ is in fact smaller than the local linear GAM frequency f_GAM . In this work we employ the Eulerian gyrokinetic code GENE tomore » simulate TCV relevant conditions and investigate the nature properties of these oscillations, in particular their relation to the safety factor profile. Local and global simulations are carried out and a good qualitative agreement is observed between experiments and simulations. By varying also the plasma temperature and density profiles, we conclude that a variation of the edge safety factor alone is not sufficient to induce a transition from global to radially inhomogeneous oscillations, as was initially suggested by experimental results. This transition appears instead to be the combined result of variations in the different plasma profiles, collisionality and finite machine size effects. In conclusion, simulations also show that radially global GAM-like oscillations can be observed in all fluxes and fluctuation fields, suggesting that they are the result of a complex nonlinear process involving also finite toroidal mode numbers and not just linear global GAM eigenmodes.« less

Investigating the radial structure of axisymmetric fluctuations in the TCV tokamak with local and global gyrokinetic GENE simulations

DOE PAGES

Merlo, Gabriele; Brunner, Stephan; Huang, Zhouji; ...

2017-12-19

Axisymmetric (n=0) density fluctuations measured in the TCV tokamak are observed to possess a frequency f₀ which is either varying (radially dispersive oscillations) or a constant over a large fraction of the plasma minor radius (radially global oscillations) as reported in a companion paper [Z. Huang et al., this issue]. Given that f₀ scales with the sound speed and given the poloidal structure of density fluctuations, these oscillations were interpreted as Geodesic Acoustic Modes, even though f₀ is in fact smaller than the local linear GAM frequency f_GAM . In this work we employ the Eulerian gyrokinetic code GENE tomore » simulate TCV relevant conditions and investigate the nature properties of these oscillations, in particular their relation to the safety factor profile. Local and global simulations are carried out and a good qualitative agreement is observed between experiments and simulations. By varying also the plasma temperature and density profiles, we conclude that a variation of the edge safety factor alone is not sufficient to induce a transition from global to radially inhomogeneous oscillations, as was initially suggested by experimental results. This transition appears instead to be the combined result of variations in the different plasma profiles, collisionality and finite machine size effects. In conclusion, simulations also show that radially global GAM-like oscillations can be observed in all fluxes and fluctuation fields, suggesting that they are the result of a complex nonlinear process involving also finite toroidal mode numbers and not just linear global GAM eigenmodes.« less

Temporal Dynamics of Top Predators Interactions in the Barents Sea

PubMed Central

Durant, Joël M.; Skern-Mauritzen, Mette; Krasnov, Yuri V.; Nikolaeva, Natalia G.; Lindstrøm, Ulf; Dolgov, Andrey

2014-01-01

The Barents Sea system is often depicted as a simple food web in terms of number of dominant feeding links. The most conspicuous feeding link is between the Northeast Arctic cod Gadus morhua, the world's largest cod stock which is presently at a historical high level, and capelin Mallotus villosus. The system also holds diverse seabird and marine mammal communities. Previous diet studies may suggest that these top predators (cod, bird and sea mammals) compete for food particularly with respect to pelagic fish such as capelin and juvenile herring (Clupea harengus), and krill. In this paper we explored the diet of some Barents Sea top predators (cod, Black-legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla, Common guillemot Uria aalge, and Minke whale Balaenoptera acutorostrata). We developed a GAM modelling approach to analyse the temporal variation diet composition within and between predators, to explore intra- and inter-specific interactions. The GAM models demonstrated that the seabird diet is temperature dependent while the diet of Minke whale and cod is prey dependent; Minke whale and cod diets depend on the abundance of herring and capelin, respectively. There was significant diet overlap between cod and Minke whale, and between kittiwake and guillemot. In general, the diet overlap between predators increased with changes in herring and krill abundances. The diet overlap models developed in this study may help to identify inter-specific interactions and their dynamics that potentially affect the stocks targeted by fisheries. PMID:25365430

Use of a Generalized Additive Model to Investigate Key Abiotic Factors Affecting Microcystin Cellular Quotas in Heavy Bloom Areas of Lake Taihu

PubMed Central

Tao, Min; Xie, Ping; Chen, Jun; Qin, Boqiang; Zhang, Dawen; Niu, Yuan; Zhang, Meng; Wang, Qing; Wu, Laiyan

2012-01-01

Lake Taihu is the third largest freshwater lake in China and is suffering from serious cyanobacterial blooms with the associated drinking water contamination by microcystin (MC) for millions of citizens. So far, most studies on MCs have been limited to two small bays, while systematic research on the whole lake is lacking. To explain the variations in MC concentrations during cyanobacterial bloom, a large-scale survey at 30 sites across the lake was conducted monthly in 2008. The health risks of MC exposure were high, especially in the northern area. Both Microcystis abundance and MC cellular quotas presented positive correlations with MC concentration in the bloom seasons, suggesting that the toxic risks during Microcystis proliferations were affected by variations in both Microcystis density and MC production per Microcystis cell. Use of a powerful predictive modeling tool named generalized additive model (GAM) helped visualize significant effects of abiotic factors related to carbon fixation and proliferation of Microcystis (conductivity, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), water temperature and pH) on MC cellular quotas from recruitment period of Microcystis to the bloom seasons, suggesting the possible use of these factors, in addition to Microcystis abundance, as warning signs to predict toxic events in the future. The interesting relationship between macrophytes and MC cellular quotas of Microcystis (i.e., high MC cellular quotas in the presence of macrophytes) needs further investigation. PMID:22384128

Aggregating the response in time series regression models, applied to weather-related cardiovascular mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masselot, Pierre; Chebana, Fateh; Bélanger, Diane; St-Hilaire, André; Abdous, Belkacem; Gosselin, Pierre; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.

2018-07-01

In environmental epidemiology studies, health response data (e.g. hospitalization or mortality) are often noisy because of hospital organization and other social factors. The noise in the data can hide the true signal related to the exposure. The signal can be unveiled by performing a temporal aggregation on health data and then using it as the response in regression analysis. From aggregated series, a general methodology is introduced to account for the particularities of an aggregated response in a regression setting. This methodology can be used with usually applied regression models in weather-related health studies, such as generalized additive models (GAM) and distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM). In particular, the residuals are modelled using an autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) model to account for the temporal dependence. The proposed methodology is illustrated by modelling the influence of temperature on cardiovascular mortality in Canada. A comparison with classical DLNMs is provided and several aggregation methods are compared. Results show that there is an increase in the fit quality when the response is aggregated, and that the estimated relationship focuses more on the outcome over several days than the classical DLNM. More precisely, among various investigated aggregation schemes, it was found that an aggregation with an asymmetric Epanechnikov kernel is more suited for studying the temperature-mortality relationship.

Comparing performance of mothers using simplified mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) classification devices with an improved MUAC insertion tape in Isiolo County, Kenya.

PubMed

Grant, Angeline; Njiru, James; Okoth, Edgar; Awino, Imelda; Briend, André; Murage, Samuel; Abdirahman, Saida; Myatt, Mark

2018-01-01

A novel approach for improving community case-detection of acute malnutrition involves mothers/caregivers screening their children for acute malnutrition using a mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) insertion tape. The objective of this study was to test three simple MUAC classification devices to determine whether they improved the sensitivity of mothers/caregivers at detecting acute malnutrition. Prospective, non-randomised, partially-blinded, clinical diagnostic trial describing and comparing the performance of three "Click-MUAC" devices and a MUAC insertion tape. The study took place in twenty-one health facilities providing integrated management of acute malnutrition (IMAM) services in Isiolo County, Kenya. Mothers/caregivers classified their child ( n =1040), aged 6-59 months, using the "Click-MUAC" devices and a MUAC insertion tape. These classifications were compared to a "gold standard" classification (the mean of three measurements taken by a research assistant using the MUAC insertion tape). The sensitivity of mother/caregiver classifications was high for all devices (>93% for severe acute malnutrition (SAM), defined by MUAC < 115 mm, and > 90% for global acute malnutrition (GAM), defined by MUAC < 125 mm). Mother/caregiver sensitivity for SAM and GAM classification was higher using the MUAC insertion tape (100% sensitivity for SAM and 99% sensitivity for GAM) than using "Click-MUAC" devices. Younden's J for SAM classification, and sensitivity for GAM classification, were significantly higher for the MUAC insertion tape (99% and 99% respectively). Specificity was high for all devices (>96%) with no significant difference between the "Click-MUAC" devices and the MUAC insertion tape. The results of this study indicate that, although the "Click-MUAC" devices performed well, the MUAC insertion tape performed best. The results for sensitivity are higher than found in previous studies. The high sensitivity for both SAM and GAM classification by mothers/caregivers with the MUAC insertion tape could be due to the use of an improved MUAC tape design which has a number of new design features. The one-on-one demonstration provided to mothers/caregivers on the use of the devices may also have helped improve sensitivity. The results of this study provide evidence that mothers/caregivers can perform sensitive and specific classifications of their child's nutritional status using MUAC. Clinical trials registration number: NCT02833740.

Exploring the safety in numbers effect for vulnerable road users on a macroscopic scale.

PubMed

Tasic, Ivana; Elvik, Rune; Brewer, Simon

2017-12-01

A "Safety in Numbers" effect for a certain group of road users is present if the number of crashes increases at a lower rate than the number of road users. The existence of this effect has been invoked to justify investments in multimodal transportation improvements in order to create more sustainable urban transportation systems by encouraging walking, biking, and transit ridership. The goal of this paper is to explore safety in numbers effect for cyclists and pedestrians in areas with different levels of access to multimodal infrastructure. Data from Chicago served to estimate the expected number of crashes on the census tract level by applying Generalized Additive Models (GAM) to capture spatial dependence in crash data. Measures of trip generation, multimodal infrastructure, network connectivity and completeness, and accessibility were used to model travel exposure in terms of activity, number of trips, trip length, travel opportunities, and conflicts. The results show that a safety in numbers effect exists on a macroscopic level for motor vehicles, pedestrians, and bicyclists. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimization Research of Generation Investment Based on Linear Programming Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Juan; Ge, Xueqian

Linear programming is an important branch of operational research and it is a mathematical method to assist the people to carry out scientific management. GAMS is an advanced simulation and optimization modeling language and it will combine a large number of complex mathematical programming, such as linear programming LP, nonlinear programming NLP, MIP and other mixed-integer programming with the system simulation. In this paper, based on the linear programming model, the optimized investment decision-making of generation is simulated and analyzed. At last, the optimal installed capacity of power plants and the final total cost are got, which provides the rational decision-making basis for optimized investments.

Distributed Energy Resources Customer Adoption Model - Graphical User Interface, Version 2.1.8

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ewald, Friedrich; Stadler, Michael; Cardoso, Goncalo F

The DER-CAM Graphical User Interface has been redesigned to consist of a dynamic tree structure on the left side of the application window to allow users to quickly navigate between different data categories and views. Views can either be tables with model parameters and input data, the optimization results, or a graphical interface to draw circuit topology and visualize investment results. The model parameters and input data consist of tables where values are assigned to specific keys. The aggregation of all model parameters and input data amounts to the data required to build a DER-CAM model, and is passed tomore » the GAMS solver when users initiate the DER-CAM optimization process. Passing data to the GAMS solver relies on the use of a Java server that handles DER-CAM requests, queuing, and results delivery. This component of the DER-CAM GUI can be deployed either locally or remotely, and constitutes an intermediate step between the user data input and manipulation, and the execution of a DER-CAM optimization in the GAMS engine. The results view shows the results of the DER-CAM optimization and distinguishes between a single and a multi-objective process. The single optimization runs the DER-CAM optimization once and presents the results as a combination of summary charts and hourly dispatch profiles. The multi-objective optimization process consists of a sequence of runs initiated by the GUI, including: 1) CO2 minimization, 2) cost minimization, 3) a user defined number of points in-between objectives 1) and 2). The multi-objective results view includes both access to the detailed results of each point generated by the process as well as the generation of a Pareto Frontier graph to illustrate the trade-off between objectives. DER-CAM GUI 2.1.8 also introduces the ability to graphically generate circuit topologies, enabling support to DER-CAM 5.0.0. This feature consists of: 1) The drawing area, where users can manually create nodes and define their properties (e.g. point of common coupling, slack bus, load) and connect them through edges representing either power lines, transformers, or heat pipes, all with user defined characteristics (e.g., length, ampacity, inductance, or heat loss); 2) The tables, which display the user-defined topology in the final numerical form that will be passed to the DER-CAM optimization. Finally, the DER-CAM GUI is also deployed with a database schema that allows users to provide different energy load profiles, solar irradiance profiles, and tariff data, that can be stored locally and later used in any DER-CAM model. However, no real data will be delivered with this version.« less

Accurate Wavelength Measurement of High-Energy Gamma Rays from the 35Cl(n,{gamma}) Reactions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Belgya, T.; Molnar, G.L.; Mutti, P.

2005-05-24

The energies of eight gamma rays in the 36Cl level scheme have been measured with high precision using the 35Cl(n,{gamma}) reaction and the GAMS4 spectrometer. From these energies, a skeleton decay scheme for 36Cl was constructed, and the binding energy of 36Cl was determined to higher precision than previously. It is shown that using this new information, binding energy determination from Ge detector experiments for other nuclei can also be made with higher precision than now available. The measurement of additional weaker 36Cl gamma rays is continuing.

Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf.

PubMed

Grieve, Brian D; Hare, Jon A; Saba, Vincent S

2017-07-24

Calanus finmarchicus is vital to pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies suggest the species is vulnerable to the effects of global warming, particularly on the Northeast U.S. Shelf, which is in the southern portion of its range. In this study, we evaluate an ensemble of six different downscaled climate models and a high-resolution global climate model, and create a generalized additive model (GAM) to examine how future changes in temperature and salinity could affect the distribution and density of C. finmarchicus. By 2081-2100, we project average C. finmarchicus density will decrease by as much as 50% under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. These decreases are particularly pronounced in the spring and summer in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank. When compared to a high-resolution global climate model, the ensemble showed a more uniform change throughout the Northeast U.S. Shelf, while the high-resolution model showed larger decreases in the Northeast Channel, Shelf Break, and Central Gulf of Maine. C. finmarchicus is an important link between primary production and higher trophic levels, and the decrease projected here could be detrimental to the North Atlantic Right Whale and a host of important fishery species.

A time series analysis of the relationship of ambient temperature and common bacterial enteric infections in two Canadian provinces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleury, Manon; Charron, Dominique F.; Holt, John D.; Allen, O. Brian; Maarouf, Abdel R.

2006-07-01

The incidence of enteric infections in the Canadian population varies seasonally, and may be expected to be change in response to global climate changes. To better understand any potential impact of warmer temperature on enteric infections in Canada, we investigated the relationship between ambient temperature and weekly reports of confirmed cases of three pathogens in Canada: Salmonella, pathogenic Escherichia coli and Campylobacter, between 1992 and 2000 in two Canadian provinces. We used generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs) to estimate the effect of seasonal adjustments on the estimated models. We found a strong non-linear association between ambient temperature and the occurrence of all three enteric pathogens in Alberta, Canada, and of Campylobacter in Newfoundland-Labrador. Threshold models were used to quantify the relationship of disease and temperature with thresholds chosen from 0 to -10°C depending on the pathogen modeled. For Alberta, the log relative risk of Salmonella weekly case counts increased by 1.2%, Campylobacter weekly case counts increased by 2.2%, and E. coli weekly case counts increased by 6.0% for every degree increase in weekly mean temperature. For Newfoundland-Labrador the log relative risk increased by 4.5% for Campylobacter for every degree increase in weekly mean temperature.

Seasonal and diel patterns in cetacean use and foraging at a potential marine renewable energy site.

PubMed

Nuuttila, Hanna K; Bertelli, Chiara M; Mendzil, Anouska; Dearle, Nessa

2018-04-01

Marine renewable energy (MRE) developments often coincide with sites frequented by small cetaceans. To understand habitat use and assess potential impact from development, echolocation clicks were recorded with acoustic click loggers (C-PODs) in Swansea Bay, Wales (UK). General Additive Models (GAMs) were applied to assess the effects of covariates including month, hour, tidal range and temperature. Analysis of inter-click intervals allowed the identification of potential foraging events as well as patterns of presence and absence. Data revealed year-round presence of porpoise, with distinct seasonal and diel patterns. Occasional acoustic encounters of dolphins were also recorded. This study provides further evidence of the need for assessing temporal trends in cetacean presence and habitat use in areas considered for development. These findings could assist MRE companies to monitor and mitigate against disturbance from construction, operation and decommissioning activities by avoiding times when porpoise presence and foraging activity is highest in the area. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Historical trends of atmospheric black carbon on Sanjiang Plain as reconstructed from a 150-year peat record

PubMed Central

Gao, Chuanyu; Lin, Qianxin; Zhang, Shaoqing; He, Jiabao; Lu, Xianguo; Wang, Guoping

2014-01-01

Black carbon (BC), one of the major components of atmosphere aerosol, could be the second dominant driver of climate change. We reconstructed historical trend of BC fluxes in Sanjiang Plain (Northeast China) through peat record to better understand its long-term trend and relationship of this atmosphere aerosol with intensity of human activities. The BC fluxes in peatland were higher than other sedimentary archives. Although global biomass burning decreased in last 150 years, regional large scale reclaiming caused BC fluxes of the Sanjiang Plain increased dramatically between 1950s' and 1980s', most likely resulting from using fire to clearing dense pastures and forests for reclaiming. The BC fluxes have increased since 1900s with increasing of the population and the area of farmland; the increase trend has been more clearly since 1980s. Based on Generalized additive models (GAM), the proportional influence of regional anthropogenic impacts have increased and became dominant factors on BC deposition. PMID:25029963

Game theory competition analysis of reservoir water supply and hydropower generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, T.

2013-12-01

The total installed capacity of the power generation systems in Taiwan is about 41,000 MW. Hydropower is one of the most important renewable energy sources, with hydropower generation capacity of about 4,540 MW. The aim of this research is to analyze competition between water supply and hydropower generation in water-energy systems. The major relationships between water and energy systems include hydropower generation by water, energy consumption for water system operation, and water consumption for energy system. In this research, a game-theoretic Cournot model is formulated to simulate oligopolistic competition between water supply, hydropower generation, and co-fired power generation in water-energy systems. A Nash equilibrium of the competitive market is derived and solved by GAMS with PATH solver. In addition, a case study analyzing the competition among water supply and hydropower generation of De-ji and Ku-Kuan reservoirs, Taipower, Star Energy, and Star-Yuan power companies in central Taiwan is conducted.

Estimating spatiotemporal distribution of PM1 concentrations in China with satellite remote sensing, meteorology, and land use information.

PubMed

Chen, Gongbo; Knibbs, Luke D; Zhang, Wenyi; Li, Shanshan; Cao, Wei; Guo, Jianping; Ren, Hongyan; Wang, Boguang; Wang, Hao; Williams, Gail; Hamm, N A S; Guo, Yuming

2018-02-01

PM 1 might be more hazardous than PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 1 μm and ≤2.5 μm, respectively). However, studies on PM 1 concentrations and its health effects are limited due to a lack of PM 1 monitoring data. To estimate spatial and temporal variations of PM 1 concentrations in China during 2005-2014 using satellite remote sensing, meteorology, and land use information. Two types of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 6 aerosol optical depth (AOD) data, Dark Target (DT) and Deep Blue (DB), were combined. Generalised additive model (GAM) was developed to link ground-monitored PM 1 data with AOD data and other spatial and temporal predictors (e.g., urban cover, forest cover and calendar month). A 10-fold cross-validation was performed to assess the predictive ability. The results of 10-fold cross-validation showed R 2 and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) for monthly prediction were 71% and 13.0 μg/m 3 , respectively. For seasonal prediction, the R 2 and RMSE were 77% and 11.4 μg/m 3 , respectively. The predicted annual mean concentration of PM 1 across China was 26.9 μg/m 3 . The PM 1 level was highest in winter while lowest in summer. Generally, the PM 1 levels in entire China did not substantially change during the past decade. Regarding local heavy polluted regions, PM 1 levels increased substantially in the South-Western Hebei and Beijing-Tianjin region. GAM with satellite-retrieved AOD, meteorology, and land use information has high predictive ability to estimate ground-level PM 1 . Ambient PM 1 reached high levels in China during the past decade. The estimated results can be applied to evaluate the health effects of PM 1 . Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in central Tunisia from 2009-2015: Forecasting models using climate variables as predictors

PubMed Central

Bellali, Hedia; Ben-Alaya, Nissaf; Saez, Marc; Malouche, Dhafer; Chahed, Mohamed Kouni

2017-01-01

Transmission of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) depends on the presence, density and distribution of Leishmania major rodent reservoir and the development of these rodents is known to have a significant dependence on environmental and climate factors. ZCL in Tunisia is one of the most common forms of leishmaniasis. The aim of this paper was to build a regression model of ZCL cases to identify the relationship between ZCL occurrence and possible risk factors, and to develop a predicting model for ZCL's control and prevention purposes. Monthly reported ZCL cases, environmental and bioclimatic data were collected over 6 years (2009–2015). Three rural areas in the governorate of Sidi Bouzid were selected as the study area. Cross-correlation analysis was used to identify the relevant lagged effects of possible risk factors, associated with ZCL cases. Non-parametric modeling techniques known as generalized additive model (GAM) and generalized additive mixed models (GAMM) were applied in this work. These techniques have the ability to approximate the relationship between the predictors (inputs) and the response variable (output), and express the relationship mathematically. The goodness-of-fit of the constructed model was determined by Generalized cross-validation (GCV) score and residual test. There were a total of 1019 notified ZCL cases from July 2009 to June 2015. The results showed seasonal distribution of reported ZCL cases from August to January. The model highlighted that rodent density, average temperature, cumulative rainfall and average relative humidity, with different time lags, all play role in sustaining and increasing the ZCL incidence. The GAMM model could be applied to predict the occurrence of ZCL in central Tunisia and could help for the establishment of an early warning system to control and prevent ZCL in central Tunisia. PMID:28841642

Modeling zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in central Tunisia from 2009-2015: Forecasting models using climate variables as predictors.

PubMed

Talmoudi, Khouloud; Bellali, Hedia; Ben-Alaya, Nissaf; Saez, Marc; Malouche, Dhafer; Chahed, Mohamed Kouni

2017-08-01

Transmission of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) depends on the presence, density and distribution of Leishmania major rodent reservoir and the development of these rodents is known to have a significant dependence on environmental and climate factors. ZCL in Tunisia is one of the most common forms of leishmaniasis. The aim of this paper was to build a regression model of ZCL cases to identify the relationship between ZCL occurrence and possible risk factors, and to develop a predicting model for ZCL's control and prevention purposes. Monthly reported ZCL cases, environmental and bioclimatic data were collected over 6 years (2009-2015). Three rural areas in the governorate of Sidi Bouzid were selected as the study area. Cross-correlation analysis was used to identify the relevant lagged effects of possible risk factors, associated with ZCL cases. Non-parametric modeling techniques known as generalized additive model (GAM) and generalized additive mixed models (GAMM) were applied in this work. These techniques have the ability to approximate the relationship between the predictors (inputs) and the response variable (output), and express the relationship mathematically. The goodness-of-fit of the constructed model was determined by Generalized cross-validation (GCV) score and residual test. There were a total of 1019 notified ZCL cases from July 2009 to June 2015. The results showed seasonal distribution of reported ZCL cases from August to January. The model highlighted that rodent density, average temperature, cumulative rainfall and average relative humidity, with different time lags, all play role in sustaining and increasing the ZCL incidence. The GAMM model could be applied to predict the occurrence of ZCL in central Tunisia and could help for the establishment of an early warning system to control and prevent ZCL in central Tunisia.

Improved base excision repair inhibition and bacteriophage Mu Gam protein yields C:G-to-T:A base editors with higher efficiency and product purity

PubMed Central

Komor, Alexis C.; Zhao, Kevin T.; Packer, Michael S.; Gaudelli, Nicole M.; Waterbury, Amanda L.; Koblan, Luke W.; Kim, Y. Bill; Badran, Ahmed H.; Liu, David R.

2017-01-01

We recently developed base editing, the programmable conversion of target C:G base pairs to T:A without inducing double-stranded DNA breaks (DSBs) or requiring homology-directed repair using engineered fusions of Cas9 variants and cytidine deaminases. Over the past year, the third-generation base editor (BE3) and related technologies have been successfully used by many researchers in a wide range of organisms. The product distribution of base editing—the frequency with which the target C:G is converted to mixtures of undesired by-products, along with the desired T:A product—varies in a target site–dependent manner. We characterize determinants of base editing outcomes in human cells and establish that the formation of undesired products is dependent on uracil N-glycosylase (UNG) and is more likely to occur at target sites containing only a single C within the base editing activity window. We engineered CDA1-BE3 and AID-BE3, which use cytidine deaminase homologs that increase base editing efficiency for some sequences. On the basis of these observations, we engineered fourth-generation base editors (BE4 and SaBE4) that increase the efficiency of C:G to T:A base editing by approximately 50%, while halving the frequency of undesired by-products compared to BE3. Fusing BE3, BE4, SaBE3, or SaBE4 to Gam, a bacteriophage Mu protein that binds DSBs greatly reduces indel formation during base editing, in most cases to below 1.5%, and further improves product purity. BE4, SaBE4, BE4-Gam, and SaBE4-Gam represent the state of the art in C:G-to-T:A base editing, and we recommend their use in future efforts. PMID:28875174

Influence of phosphate and disinfection on the composition of biofilms produced from drinking water, as measured by fluorescence in situ hybridization.

PubMed

Batté, M; Mathieu, L; Laurent, P; Prévost, M

2003-12-01

Biofilms were grown in annular reactors supplied with drinking water enriched with 235 microg C/L. Changes in the biofilms with ageing, disinfection, and phosphate treatment were monitored using fluorescence in situ hybridization. EUB338, BET42a, GAM42a, and ALF1b probes were used to target most bacteria and the alpha (alpha), beta (beta), and gamma (gamma) subclasses of Proteobacteria, respectively. The stability of biofilm composition was checked after the onset of colonization between T = 42 days and T = 113 days. From 56.0% to 75.9% of the cells detected through total direct counts with DAPI (4'-6-diamidino-2-phenylindole) were also detected with the EUB338 probe, which targets the 16S rRNA of most bacteria. Among these cells, 16.9%-24.7% were targeted with the BET42a probe, 1.8%-18.3% with the ALF1b probe, and <2.5% with the GAM42a probe. Phosphate treatment induced a significant enhancement to the proportion of gamma-Proteobacteria (detected with the GAM42a probe), a group that contains many health-related bacteria. Disinfection with monochloramine for 1 month or chlorine for 3 days induced a reduction in the percentage of DAPI-stained cells that hybridized with the EUB338 probe (as expressed by percentages of EUB338 counts/DAPI) and with any of the ALF1b, BET42a, and GAM42a probes. The percentage of cells detected by any of the three probes (ALF1b+BET42a+GAM42a) tended to decrease, and reached in total less than 30% of the EUB338-hybridized cells. Disinfection with chlorine for 7 days induced a reverse shift; an increase in the percentage of EUB338 counts targeted by any of these three probes was noted, which reached up to 87%. However, it should be noted that the global bacterial densities (heterotrophic plate counts and total direct counts) tended to decrease over the duration of the experiment. Therefore, those bacteria that could be considered to resist 7 days of chlorination constituted a small part of the initial biofilm community, up to the point at which the other bacterial groups were destroyed by chlorination. The results suggest that there were variations in the kinetics of inactivation by disinfectant, depending on the bacterial populations involved.

Statistical modelling of variability in sediment-water nutrient and oxygen fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serpetti, Natalia; Witte, Ursula; Heath, Michael

2016-06-01

Organic detritus entering, or produced, in the marine environment is re-mineralised to inorganic nutrient in the seafloor sediments. The flux of dissolved inorganic nutrient between the sediment and overlying water column is a key process in the marine ecosystem, which binds the biogeochemical sub-system to the living food web. These fluxes are potentially affected by a wide range of physical and biological factors and disentangling these is a significant challenge. Here we develop a set of General Additive Models (GAM) of nitrate, nitrite, ammonia, phosphate, silicate and oxygen fluxes, based on a year-long campaign of field measurements off the north-east coast of Scotland. We show that sediment grain size, turbidity due to sediment re-suspension, temperature, and biogenic matter content were the key factors affecting oxygen consumption, ammonia and silicate fluxes. However, phosphate fluxes were only related to suspended sediment concentrations, whilst nitrate fluxes showed no clear relationship to any of the expected drivers of change, probably due to the effects of denitrification. Our analyses show that the stoichiometry of nutrient regeneration in the ecosystem is not necessarily constant and may be affected by combinations of processes. We anticipate that our statistical modelling results will form the basis for testing the functionality of process-based mathematical models of whole-sediment biogeochemistry.

Comparing meta-analysis and ecological-longitudinal analysis in time-series studies. A case study of the effects of air pollution on mortality in three Spanish cities

PubMed Central

Saez, M; Figueiras, A; Ballester, F; Perez-Hoyos, S; Ocana, R; Tobias, A

2001-01-01

STUDY OBJECTIVE—The objective of this paper is to introduce a different approach, called the ecological-longitudinal, to carrying out pooled analysis in time series ecological studies. Because it gives a larger number of data points and, hence, increases the statistical power of the analysis, this approach, unlike conventional ones, allows the complementation of aspects such as accommodation of random effect models, of lags, of interaction between pollutants and between pollutants and meteorological variables, that are hardly implemented in conventional approaches.
DESIGN—The approach is illustrated by providing quantitative estimates of the short-term effects of air pollution on mortality in three Spanish cities, Barcelona, Valencia and Vigo, for the period 1992-1994. Because the dependent variable was a count, a Poisson generalised linear model was first specified. Several modelling issues are worth mentioning. Firstly, because the relations between mortality and explanatory variables were non-linear, cubic splines were used for covariate control, leading to a generalised additive model, GAM. Secondly, the effects of the predictors on the response were allowed to occur with some lag. Thirdly, the residual autocorrelation, because of imperfect control, was controlled for by means of an autoregressive Poisson GAM. Finally, the longitudinal design demanded the consideration of the existence of individual heterogeneity, requiring the consideration of mixed models.
MAIN RESULTS—The estimates of the relative risks obtained from the individual analyses varied across cities, particularly those associated with sulphur dioxide. The highest relative risks corresponded to black smoke in Valencia. These estimates were higher than those obtained from the ecological-longitudinal analysis. Relative risks estimated from this latter analysis were practically identical across cities, 1.00638 (95% confidence intervals 1.0002, 1.0011) for a black smoke increase of 10 µg/m3 and 1.00415 (95% CI 1.0001, 1.0007) for a increase of 10 µg/m3 of sulphur dioxide. Because the statistical power is higher than in the individual analysis more interactions were statistically significant, especially those among air pollutants and meteorological variables.
CONCLUSIONS—Air pollutant levels were related to mortality in the three cities of the study, Barcelona, Valencia and Vigo. These results were consistent with similar studies in other cities, with other multicentric studies and coherent with both, previous individual, for each city, and multicentric studies for all three cities.


Keywords: air pollution; mortality; longitudinal studies PMID:11351001

Urban airborne matter in central and southern Chile: Effects of meteorological conditions on fine and coarse particulate matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yáñez, Marco A.; Baettig, Ricardo; Cornejo, Jorge; Zamudio, Francisco; Guajardo, Jorge; Fica, Rodrigo

2017-07-01

Air pollution is one of the major global environmental problems affecting human health and life quality. Many cities of Chile are heavily polluted with PM2.5 and PM10, mainly in the cold season, and there is little understanding of how the variation in particle matter differs between cities and how this is affected by the meteorological conditions. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of meteorological variables on respirable particulate matter (PM) of the main cities in the central-south valley of Chile during the cold season (May to August) between 2014 and 2016. We used hourly PM2.5 and PMcoarse (PM10- PM2.5) information along with wind speed, temperature and relative humidity, and other variables derived from meteorological parameters. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were fitted for each of the eight cities selected, covering a latitudinal range of 929 km, from Santiago to Osorno. Great variation in PM was found between cities during the cold months, and that variation exhibited a marked latitudinal pattern. Overall, the more northerly cities tended to be less polluted in PM2.5 and more polluted in PMcoarse than the more southerly cities, and vice versa. The results show that other derived variables from meteorology were better related with PM than the use of traditional daily means. The main variables selected with regard to PM2.5 content were mean wind speed and minimum temperature (negative relationship). Otherwise, the main variables selected with regard to PMcoarse content were mean wind speed (negative), and the daily range in temperature (positive). Variables derived from relative humidity contributed differently to the models, having a higher effect on PMcoarse than PM2.5, and exhibiting both negative and positive effects. For the different cities the deviance explained by the GAMs ranged from 37.6 to 79.1% for PM2.5 and from 18.5 to 63.7% for PMcoarse. The percentage of deviance explained by the models for PM2.5 exhibited a latitudinal pattern, which was not observed in PMcoarse. This highlights the greater predictability of PM2.5 according to meteorological parameters in the cities to the south. Southern cities located spatially close to one another had similar patterns in both the selected variables for the models and the trends. The meteorological factor influencing the cities had a major impact on PM concentrations. The findings of this study may aid understanding of PM variation across the country, in the way of improving forecasting models.

Association between air pollution and upper respiratory tract infection in hospital outpatients aged 0-14 years in Hefei, China: a time series study.

PubMed

Li, Y R; Xiao, C C; Li, J; Tang, J; Geng, X Y; Cui, L J; Zhai, J X

2018-03-01

To investigate the association between air pollution and upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) in children aged 0-14 years in Hefei, China in 2014-2015. An ecological method (i.e. generalised additive model [GAM]) was used to explore the effects of air pollutants on paediatric hospital outpatients with URTI. GAM was used to evaluate the lag effects (including lag0 to lag6, lag01 and lag06) between daily changes in particulate matter (PM 10 ), fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), ozone (O 3 ) and carbon monoxide (CO) and the number of hospital outpatients with URTI in 2014-2015, after controlling for the confounding effects of long-term trends, seasonality, day of the week, public holidays and meteorological factors. PM 10 , PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO 2 and CO in the single-pollutant models had significant positive effects on the number of paediatric hospital outpatients with URTI. It was found that per 10 μg/m 3 increasing in concentrations of PM 10 at lag3, PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO 2 and CO at lag06 were associated with an increase of Excess risk (ER) with 0.15% (95% CI: 0.07%∼0.23%), 0.38% (95% CI: 0.17%∼0.60%), 2.92% (95% CI: 1.88%∼3.97%), 4.47% (95% CI: 3.69%∼5.25%) and 0.05% (95% CI: 0.02%∼0.08%), respectively. Only NO 2 remained significantly positively associated with the number of hospital outpatients with URTI in the full-pollutant models, and ERs were 4.72% (95% CI = 3.76%-5.69%) and 4.70% (95% CI = 3.76%-5.65%) per 10 μg/m 3 increase in NO 2 in Model 1 (including PM10, SO 2 , NO 2 , O 3 and CO) and Model 2 (including PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO 2 , O 3 and CO), respectively. This study showed that short-term exposure to air pollution was associated with increased risk of URTI among paediatric hospital outpatients aged 0-14 years in Hefei. NO 2 was the major air pollutant affecting the daily number of paediatric hospital outpatients with URTI. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aggregating the response in time series regression models, applied to weather-related cardiovascular mortality.

PubMed

Masselot, Pierre; Chebana, Fateh; Bélanger, Diane; St-Hilaire, André; Abdous, Belkacem; Gosselin, Pierre; Ouarda, Taha B M J

2018-07-01

In environmental epidemiology studies, health response data (e.g. hospitalization or mortality) are often noisy because of hospital organization and other social factors. The noise in the data can hide the true signal related to the exposure. The signal can be unveiled by performing a temporal aggregation on health data and then using it as the response in regression analysis. From aggregated series, a general methodology is introduced to account for the particularities of an aggregated response in a regression setting. This methodology can be used with usually applied regression models in weather-related health studies, such as generalized additive models (GAM) and distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM). In particular, the residuals are modelled using an autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) model to account for the temporal dependence. The proposed methodology is illustrated by modelling the influence of temperature on cardiovascular mortality in Canada. A comparison with classical DLNMs is provided and several aggregation methods are compared. Results show that there is an increase in the fit quality when the response is aggregated, and that the estimated relationship focuses more on the outcome over several days than the classical DLNM. More precisely, among various investigated aggregation schemes, it was found that an aggregation with an asymmetric Epanechnikov kernel is more suited for studying the temperature-mortality relationship. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Fusion Research in Ioffe Institute

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Askinazi, L. G.; Afanasyev, V. I.; Altukhov, A. B.; Bakharev, N. N.; Belokurov, A. A.; Bulanin, V. V.; Bykov, A. S.; Chernyshev, F. V.; Chugunov, I.; Dyachenko, V. V.; Esipov, L. A.; Gin, D.; Goncharov, P. R.; Gurchenko, A. D.; Gusakov, E. Z.; Gusev, V. K.; Heuraux, S.; Iblyaminova, A. D.; Irzak, M. A.; Kantor, M. Yu.; Kaveeva, E. G.; Kiviniemi, T.; Khilkevitch, E. M.; Khitrov, S. A.; Khromov, N. A.; Kornev, V. A.; Kouprienko, D. V.; Kurskiev, G. S.; Lashkul, S. I.; Lebedev, S. V.; Leerink, S.; Melnik, A. D.; Minaev, V. B.; Mironov, M. I.; Miroshnikov, I. V.; Mukhin, E. E.; Nesenevich, V. G.; Niskala, P.; Novokhatsky, A. N.; Patrov, M. I.; Perevalov, A. A.; Petrov, M. P.; Petrov, A. V.; Petrov, Yu. V.; Popov, A. Yu.; Rozhansky, V. A.; Rozhdestvenskiy, V. V.; Sakharov, N. V.; Saveliev, A. N.; Senichenkov, I. Yu.; Sergeev, V. Yu.; Shchegolev, P. B.; Shatalin, S. V.; Shcherbinin, O. N.; Shevelev, A. E.; Sidorov, A. V.; da Silva, F.; Smirnov, A. I.; Stepanov, A. Yu.; Sysoeva, E. V.; Teplova, N. V.; Tolstyakov, S. Yu.; Tukachinsky, A. S.; Varfolomeev, V. I.; Vekshina, E. O.; Vildjunas, M. I.; Voronin, A. V.; Voskoboinikov, S. P.; Wagner, F.; Yashin, A. Yu.; Zhubr, N. A.

2015-10-01

In this paper we present the fusion related activities of the Plasma Physics Division at the Ioffe Institute. The first experiments on lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) in a spherical tokamak performed at the Globus-M tokamak (R = 0.36 m, a = 0.24 m, Bt = 0.4 T, Ip = 200 kA) with a novel poloidally oriented grill resulted in an RF driven current of up to 30 kA at (100 kW, 2.5 GHz), exceeding the modelling predictions. At the FT-2 tokamak (R = 0.56 m, a = 0.08 m, Bt = 3 T, Ip = 30 kA) experiments with a traditional toroidally oriented grill revealed no strong dependence of the LHCD density limit on the H/D ratio in spite of LH resonance densities differing by a factor of 3. Microwave Doppler reflectometry (DR) at the Globus-M, and DR and heavy ion beam probe measurements at the tokamak TUMAN-3M (R = 0.53 m, a = 0.24 m, Bt = 1.0 T, Ip = 190 kA) demonstrated geodesic acoustic mode (GAM) suppression at the L to H transition. Observations at FT-2 using Doppler Enhanced Scattering showed that the GAM amplitude is anti-correlated both spatially and temporally to the drift turbulence level and electron thermal diffusivity. For the first time turbulence amplitude modulation at the GAM frequency was found both experimentally and in global gyrokinetic modelling. A model of the L-H transition is proposed based on this effect. The loss mechanisms of energetic ions' (EI) were investigated in the neutral beam injection (NBI) experiments on Globus-M and TUMAN-3M. Empirical scaling of the 2.45 MeV DD neutron rate for the two devices shows a strong dependence on toroidal field Bt1.29 and plasma current Ip1.34 justifying the Bt and Ip increase by a factor of 2.5 for the proposed upgrade of Globus-M. Bursts of ˜1 MHz Alfvenic type oscillations correlating with sawtooth crashes were observed in ohmic TUMAN-3M discharges. The possibility of low threshold parametric excitation of Bernstein and upper hybrid waves trapped in drift-wave eddies resulting in anomalous absorption in electron cyclotron resonance heating (ECRH) experiments in toroidal plasmas was identified theoretically. A novel method of radial correlation Doppler reflectometry is shown to be capable of measuring the turbulence wave-number spectrum in realistic 2D geometry. On the progress in design and fabrication of three diagnostics for ITER developed in the Ioffe institute is reported: neutral particle analysis, divertor Thomson scattering and gamma spectroscopy.

Generalized DSS shell for developing simulation and optimization hydro-economic models of complex water resources systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio; Harou, Julien J.; Andreu, Joaquin

2013-04-01

Hydrologic-economic models allow integrated analysis of water supply, demand and infrastructure management at the river basin scale. These models simultaneously analyze engineering, hydrology and economic aspects of water resources management. Two new tools have been designed to develop models within this approach: a simulation tool (SIM_GAMS), for models in which water is allocated each month based on supply priorities to competing uses and system operating rules, and an optimization tool (OPT_GAMS), in which water resources are allocated optimally following economic criteria. The characterization of the water resource network system requires a connectivity matrix representing the topology of the elements, generated using HydroPlatform. HydroPlatform, an open-source software platform for network (node-link) models, allows to store, display and export all information needed to characterize the system. Two generic non-linear models have been programmed in GAMS to use the inputs from HydroPlatform in simulation and optimization models. The simulation model allocates water resources on a monthly basis, according to different targets (demands, storage, environmental flows, hydropower production, etc.), priorities and other system operating rules (such as reservoir operating rules). The optimization model's objective function is designed so that the system meets operational targets (ranked according to priorities) each month while following system operating rules. This function is analogous to the one used in the simulation module of the DSS AQUATOOL. Each element of the system has its own contribution to the objective function through unit cost coefficients that preserve the relative priority rank and the system operating rules. The model incorporates groundwater and stream-aquifer interaction (allowing conjunctive use simulation) with a wide range of modeling options, from lumped and analytical approaches to parameter-distributed models (eigenvalue approach). Such functionality is not typically included in other water DSS. Based on the resulting water resources allocation, the model calculates operating and water scarcity costs caused by supply deficits based on economic demand functions for each demand node. The optimization model allocates the available resource over time based on economic criteria (net benefits from demand curves and cost functions), minimizing the total water scarcity and operating cost of water use. This approach provides solutions that optimize the economic efficiency (as total net benefit) in water resources management over the optimization period. Both models must be used together in water resource planning and management. The optimization model provides an initial insight on economically efficient solutions, from which different operating rules can be further developed and tested using the simulation model. The hydro-economic simulation model allows assessing economic impacts of alternative policies or operating criteria, avoiding the perfect foresight issues associated with the optimization. The tools have been applied to the Jucar river basin (Spain) in order to assess the economic results corresponding to the current modus operandi of the system and compare them with the solution from the optimization that maximizes economic efficiency. Acknowledgments: The study has been partially supported by the European Community 7th Framework Project (GENESIS project, n. 226536) and the Plan Nacional I+D+I 2008-2011 of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (CGL2009-13238-C02-01 and CGL2009-13238-C02-02).

Verification of TEMPEST with neoclassical transport theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, Z.; Cohen, B. I.; Cohen, R. H.; Dorr, M.; Hittinger, J.; Kerbel, G.; Nevins, W. M.; Rognlien, T.; Umansky, M.; Xu, X.

2006-10-01

TEMPEST is an edge gyro-kinetic continuum code developed to study boundary plasma transport over the region extending from the H-mode pedestal across the separatrix to the divertor plates. For benchmark purposes, we present results from the 4D (2r,2v) TEMPEST for both steady-state transport and time-dependent Geodesic Acoustic Modes (GAMs). We focus on an annular region inside the separatrix of a circular cross-section tokamak where analytical and numerical results are available. The parallel flow velocity and radial particle flux are obtained for different collisional regimes and compared with previous neoclassical results. The effect of radial electric field and the transition to steep edge gradients is emphasized. The dynamical response of GAMs is also shown and compared to recent theory.

Dengue Baidu Search Index data can improve the prediction of local dengue epidemic: A case study in Guangzhou, China

PubMed Central

Liu, Tao; Zhu, Guanghu; Lin, Hualiang; Zhang, Yonghui; He, Jianfeng; Deng, Aiping; Peng, Zhiqiang; Xiao, Jianpeng; Rutherford, Shannon; Xie, Runsheng; Zeng, Weilin; Li, Xing; Ma, Wenjun

2017-01-01

Background Dengue fever (DF) in Guangzhou, Guangdong province in China is an important public health issue. The problem was highlighted in 2014 by a large, unprecedented outbreak. In order to respond in a more timely manner and hence better control such potential outbreaks in the future, this study develops an early warning model that integrates internet-based query data into traditional surveillance data. Methodology and principal findings A Dengue Baidu Search Index (DBSI) was collected from the Baidu website for developing a predictive model of dengue fever in combination with meteorological and demographic factors. Generalized additive models (GAM) with or without DBSI were established. The generalized cross validation (GCV) score and deviance explained indexes, intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and root mean squared error (RMSE), were respectively applied to measure the fitness and the prediction capability of the models. Our results show that the DBSI with one-week lag has a positive linear relationship with the local DF occurrence, and the model with DBSI (ICC:0.94 and RMSE:59.86) has a better prediction capability than the model without DBSI (ICC:0.72 and RMSE:203.29). Conclusions Our study suggests that a DSBI combined with traditional disease surveillance and meteorological data can improve the dengue early warning system in Guangzhou. PMID:28263988

Spatial downscaling of soil prediction models based on weighted generalized additive models in smallholder farm settings.

PubMed

Xu, Yiming; Smith, Scot E; Grunwald, Sabine; Abd-Elrahman, Amr; Wani, Suhas P; Nair, Vimala D

2017-09-11

Digital soil mapping (DSM) is gaining momentum as a technique to help smallholder farmers secure soil security and food security in developing regions. However, communications of the digital soil mapping information between diverse audiences become problematic due to the inconsistent scale of DSM information. Spatial downscaling can make use of accessible soil information at relatively coarse spatial resolution to provide valuable soil information at relatively fine spatial resolution. The objective of this research was to disaggregate the coarse spatial resolution soil exchangeable potassium (K ex ) and soil total nitrogen (TN) base map into fine spatial resolution soil downscaled map using weighted generalized additive models (GAMs) in two smallholder villages in South India. By incorporating fine spatial resolution spectral indices in the downscaling process, the soil downscaled maps not only conserve the spatial information of coarse spatial resolution soil maps but also depict the spatial details of soil properties at fine spatial resolution. The results of this study demonstrated difference between the fine spatial resolution downscaled maps and fine spatial resolution base maps is smaller than the difference between coarse spatial resolution base maps and fine spatial resolution base maps. The appropriate and economical strategy to promote the DSM technique in smallholder farms is to develop the relatively coarse spatial resolution soil prediction maps or utilize available coarse spatial resolution soil maps at the regional scale and to disaggregate these maps to the fine spatial resolution downscaled soil maps at farm scale.

[Narratives of users of mental health services in an experiment with autonomous management of medication].

PubMed

Gonçalves, Laura Lamas Martins; Campos, Rosana Teresa Onocko

2017-11-21

Numerous studies have highlighted the tendency to chronicity of treatments centered on the use of medications. This study was conducted in a large Brazilian city with users of Centers for Psychosocial Care (CAPS), with the aim of evaluating the effects of experimenting with the personal Guide for Autonomous Management of Medication (GAM) and the users' relationship to their treatments and participation. The instrument, created in Canada and translated and adapted to Brazil, was tested in intervention groups with users of CAPS with severe mental disorders and a history of political participation in the field of health. Focus groups and in-depth interviews were performed. The transcriptions were transformed into narratives, and four analytical categories were defined: subjects with radical experiences of suffering; experiences with medication; users' rights; and participation and political activism. In testing GAM, users expressed a tension between reproduction of illness-centered identity and the legitimate uniqueness of their personal experiences. They showed greater knowledge of the medications they were taking, began to recognize their own expertise in their use of medications, and some sought adjustments to their treatment. They reported the need for support in claiming their rights and strengthening their participation as mental health activists. In conclusion, the Brazilian version of the GAM guide has the potential to contribute to users' empowerment, thus allowing dialogue between the results in mental health care in Brazil and the international scenario.

Glioma Stem Cells but Not Bulk Glioma Cells Upregulate IL-6 Secretion in Microglia/Brain Macrophages via Toll-like Receptor 4 Signaling.

PubMed

a Dzaye, Omar Dildar; Hu, Feng; Derkow, Katja; Haage, Verena; Euskirchen, Philipp; Harms, Christoph; Lehnardt, Seija; Synowitz, Michael; Wolf, Susanne A; Kettenmann, Helmut

2016-05-01

Peripheral macrophages and resident microglia constitute the dominant glioma-infiltrating cells. The tumor induces an immunosuppressive and tumor-supportive phenotype in these glioma-associated microglia/brain macrophages (GAMs). A subpopulation of glioma cells acts as glioma stem cells (GSCs). We explored the interaction between GSCs and GAMs. Using CD133 as a marker of stemness, we enriched for or deprived the mouse glioma cell line GL261 of GSCs by fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS). Over the same period of time, 100 CD133(+ )GSCs had the capacity to form a tumor of comparable size to the ones formed by 10,000 CD133(-) GL261 cells. In IL-6(-/-) mice, only tumors formed by CD133(+ )cells were smaller compared with wild type. After stimulation of primary cultured microglia with medium from CD133-enriched GL261 glioma cells, we observed an selective upregulation in microglial IL-6 secretion dependent on Toll-like receptor (TLR) 4. Our results show that GSCs, but not the bulk glioma cells, initiate microglial IL-6 secretion via TLR4 signaling and that IL-6 regulates glioma growth by supporting GSCs. Using human glioma tissue, we could confirm the finding that GAMs are the major source of IL-6 in the tumor context. © 2016 American Association of Neuropathologists, Inc. All rights reserved.

Environmental and anthropogenic factors affecting the probability of occurrence of Oncomegas wageneri (Cestoda: Trypanorhyncha) in the southern Gulf of Mexico.

PubMed

Vidal-Martínez, Víctor M; Torres-Irineo, Edgar; Romero, David; Gold-Bouchot, Gerardo; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique; Valdés-Lozano, David; Aguirre-Macedo, M Leopoldina

2015-11-26

Understanding the environmental and anthropogenic factors influencing the probability of occurrence of the marine parasitic species is fundamental for determining the circumstances under which they can act as bioindicators of environmental impact. The aim of this study was to determine whether physicochemical variables, polyaromatic hydrocarbons or sewage discharge affect the probability of occurrence of the larval cestode Oncomegas wageneri, which infects the shoal flounder, Syacium gunteri, in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The study area included 162 sampling sites in the southern Gulf of Mexico and covered 288,205 km(2), where the benthic sediments, water and the shoal flounder individuals were collected. We used the boosted generalised additive models (boosted GAM) and the MaxEnt to examine the potential statistical relationships between the environmental variables (nutrients, contaminants and physicochemical variables from the water and sediments) and the probability of the occurrence of this parasite. The models were calibrated using all of the sampling sites (full area) with and without parasite occurrences (n = 162) and a polygon area that included sampling sites with a depth of 1500 m or less (n = 134). Oncomegas wageneri occurred at 29/162 sampling sites. The boosted GAM for the full area and the polygon area accurately predicted the probability of the occurrence of O. wageneri in the study area. By contrast, poor probabilities of occurrence were obtained with the MaxEnt models for the same areas. The variables with the highest frequencies of appearance in the models (proxies for the explained variability) were the polyaromatic hydrocarbons of high molecular weight (PAHH, 95 %), followed by a combination of nutrients, spatial variables and polyaromatic hydrocarbons of low molecular weight (PAHL, 5 %). The contribution of the PAHH to the variability was explained by the fact that these compounds, together with N and P, are carried by rivers that discharge into the ocean, which enhances the growth of hydrocarbonoclastic bacteria and the productivity and number of the intermediate hosts. Our results suggest that sites with PAHL/PAHH ratio values up to 1.89 promote transmission based on the high values of the prevalence of O. wageneri in the study area. In contrast, PAHL/PAHH ratio values ≥ 1.90 can be considered harmful for the transmission stages of O. wageneri and its hosts (copepods, shrimps and shoal flounders). Overall, the results indicate that the PAHHs affect the probability of occurrence of this helminth parasite in the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Modeled distribution and abundance of a pelagic seabird reveal trends in relation to fisheries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Renner, Martin; Parrish, Julia K.; Piatt, John F.; Kuletz, Kathy J.; Edwards, Ann E.; Hunt, George L.

2013-01-01

The northern fulmar Fulmarus glacialis is one of the most visible and widespread seabirds in the eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands. However, relatively little is known about its abundance, trends, or the factors that shape its distribution. We used a long-term pelagic dataset to model changes in fulmar at-sea distribution and abundance since the mid-1970s. We used an ensemble model, based on a weighted average of generalized additive model (GAM), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), and random forest models to estimate the pelagic distribution and density of fulmars in the waters of the Aleutian Archipelago and Bering Sea. The most important predictor variables were colony effect, sea surface temperature, distribution of fisheries, location, and primary productivity. We calculated a time series from the ratio of observed to predicted values and found that fulmar at-sea abundance declined from the 1970s to the 2000s at a rate of 0.83% (± 0.39% SE) per annum. Interpolating fulmar densities on a spatial grid through time, we found that the center of fulmar distribution in the Bering Sea has shifted north, coinciding with a northward shift in fish catches and a warming ocean. Our study shows that fisheries are an important, but not the only factor, shaping fulmar distribution and abundance trends in the eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands.

Roles of Tyrosine-Rich Precursor Glycoproteins and Dityrosine- and 3,4-Dihydroxyphenylalanine-Mediated Protein Cross-Linking in Development of the Oocyst Wall in the Coccidian Parasite Eimeria maxima

PubMed Central

Belli, Sabina I.; Wallach, Michael G.; Luxford, Catherine; Davies, Michael J.; Smith, Nicholas C.

2003-01-01

The oocyst wall of apicomplexan parasites protects them from the harsh external environment, preserving their survival prior to transmission to the next host. If oocyst wall formation could be disrupted, then logically, the cycle of disease transmission could be stopped, and strategies to control infection by several organisms of medical and veterinary importance such as Eimeria, Plasmodium, Toxoplasma, Cyclospora, and Neospora could be developed. Here, we show that two tyrosine-rich precursor glycoproteins, gam56 and gam82, found in specialized organelles (wall-forming bodies) in the sexual stage (macrogamete) of Eimeria maxima are proteolytically processed into smaller glycoproteins, which are then incorporated into the developing oocyst wall. The identification of high concentrations of dityrosine and 3,4-dihydroxyphenylalanine (DOPA) in oocyst extracts by high-pressure liquid chromatography, together with the detection of a UV autofluorescence in intact oocysts, implicates dityrosine- and possibly DOPA-protein cross-links in oocyst wall hardening. In addition, the identification of peroxidase activity in the wall-forming bodies of macrogametes supports the hypothesis that dityrosine- and DOPA-mediated cross-linking might be an enzyme-catalyzed event. As such, the mechanism of oocyst wall formation in Eimeria, is analogous to the underlying mechanisms involved in the stabilization of extracellular matrices in a number of organisms, widely distributed in nature, including insect resilin, nematode cuticles, yeast cell walls, mussel byssal threads, and sea urchin fertilization membranes. PMID:12796290

Predicting bottlenose dolphin distribution along Liguria coast (northwestern Mediterranean Sea) through different modeling techniques and indirect predictors.

PubMed

Marini, C; Fossa, F; Paoli, C; Bellingeri, M; Gnone, G; Vassallo, P

2015-03-01

Habitat modeling is an important tool to investigate the quality of the habitat for a species within a certain area, to predict species distribution and to understand the ecological processes behind it. Many species have been investigated by means of habitat modeling techniques mainly to address effective management and protection policies and cetaceans play an important role in this context. The bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) has been investigated with habitat modeling techniques since 1997. The objectives of this work were to predict the distribution of bottlenose dolphin in a coastal area through the use of static morphological features and to compare the prediction performances of three different modeling techniques: Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and Random Forest (RF). Four static variables were tested: depth, bottom slope, distance from 100 m bathymetric contour and distance from coast. RF revealed itself both the most accurate and the most precise modeling technique with very high distribution probabilities predicted in presence cells (90.4% of mean predicted probabilities) and with 66.7% of presence cells with a predicted probability comprised between 90% and 100%. The bottlenose distribution obtained with RF allowed the identification of specific areas with particularly high presence probability along the coastal zone; the recognition of these core areas may be the starting point to develop effective management practices to improve T. truncatus protection. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of Colorectal-Targeted Dietary Supplement Tablets Containing Natural Purple Rice Bran Oil as a Colorectal Chemopreventive.

PubMed

Sirithunyalug, Busaban; Saenjum, Chalermpong; Charumanee, Suporn; Sivamaruthi, Bhagavathi Sundaram; Chaiyasut, Chaiyavat; Sirithunyalug, Jakkapan; Tipduangta, Pratchaya

2018-04-04

Colorectal cancer occurs due to various factors. The important risks are dietary lifestyle and inflammatory bowel diseases, such as Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis. It has been found that the inhibitory enzyme cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) in the colorectal region can potentially reduce the risk of colorectal cancer. The present study investigated rice bran oil from natural purple rice bran, which exhibits antioxidant and anti-inflammatory activity. This study aimed to evaluate the bioactive compound content of natural purple rice bran oil (NPRBO) derived from native Thai purple rice and the anti-inflammatory activity of NPRBO in colorectal cancer cells, and to develop a colorectal delivery platform in the form of film-coated tablets. NPRBO from the rice bran of five different Thai purple rice cultivars, namely Khao’ Gam Leum-Phua (KGLP), Khao’ Gam Boung (KGB), Khao’ Gam Thor (KGT), Khao’ Gam Pah E-Kaw (KGPEK), and Khao’ Niaw Dam (KND), were extracted using the supercritical carbon dioxide extraction technique. The amount of γ-oryzanol (ORY), tocotrienols, and tocopherols present in NPRBOs and the in vitro anti-inflammatory activity of NPRBO were investigated. The highest anti-inflammatory NPRBO was transformed into a dry and free-flowing powder by liquisolid techniques. Then, it was compressed into core tablets and coated with Eudragit ® L100 and Eudragit ® NE30D. The in vitro release study of the film-coated NPRBO tablets was performed in three-phase simulated gastrointestinal media. The cultivar KGLP was superior to the other samples in terms of the ORY, tocotrienol and tocopherol contents and anti-inflammatory activity. Aerosil ® was the most suitable absorbent for transforming NPRBO into a free-flowing powder and was used to prepare the NPRBO core tablets. The in vitro KGLP-NPRBO film-coated tablet release profile showed that no ORY was released at gastric pH while 85% of ORY was released at pH 7.4 after 6 h; this would be expected to occur in the colorectal area. Therefore, this study demonstrates the potential of KGLP-NPRBO to prevent colorectal cancer via a specific colorectal dietary supplement delivery system.

Development of Colorectal-Targeted Dietary Supplement Tablets Containing Natural Purple Rice Bran Oil as a Colorectal Chemopreventive

PubMed Central

Sirithunyalug, Busaban; Saenjum, Chalermpong; Charumanee, Suporn; Chaiyasut, Chaiyavat; Sirithunyalug, Jakkapan; Tipduangta, Pratchaya

2018-01-01

Colorectal cancer occurs due to various factors. The important risks are dietary lifestyle and inflammatory bowel diseases, such as Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis. It has been found that the inhibitory enzyme cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) in the colorectal region can potentially reduce the risk of colorectal cancer. The present study investigated rice bran oil from natural purple rice bran, which exhibits antioxidant and anti-inflammatory activity. This study aimed to evaluate the bioactive compound content of natural purple rice bran oil (NPRBO) derived from native Thai purple rice and the anti-inflammatory activity of NPRBO in colorectal cancer cells, and to develop a colorectal delivery platform in the form of film-coated tablets. NPRBO from the rice bran of five different Thai purple rice cultivars, namely Khao’ Gam Leum-Phua (KGLP), Khao’ Gam Boung (KGB), Khao’ Gam Thor (KGT), Khao’ Gam Pah E-Kaw (KGPEK), and Khao’ Niaw Dam (KND), were extracted using the supercritical carbon dioxide extraction technique. The amount of γ-oryzanol (ORY), tocotrienols, and tocopherols present in NPRBOs and the in vitro anti-inflammatory activity of NPRBO were investigated. The highest anti-inflammatory NPRBO was transformed into a dry and free-flowing powder by liquisolid techniques. Then, it was compressed into core tablets and coated with Eudragit®L100 and Eudragit® NE30D. The in vitro release study of the film-coated NPRBO tablets was performed in three-phase simulated gastrointestinal media. The cultivar KGLP was superior to the other samples in terms of the ORY, tocotrienol and tocopherol contents and anti-inflammatory activity. Aerosil® was the most suitable absorbent for transforming NPRBO into a free-flowing powder and was used to prepare the NPRBO core tablets. The in vitro KGLP-NPRBO film-coated tablet release profile showed that no ORY was released at gastric pH while 85% of ORY was released at pH 7.4 after 6 h; this would be expected to occur in the colorectal area. Therefore, this study demonstrates the potential of KGLP-NPRBO to prevent colorectal cancer via a specific colorectal dietary supplement delivery system. PMID:29617306

Space-Time Dependent Transport, Activation, and Dose Rates for Radioactivated Fluids.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavazza, Sergio

Two methods are developed to calculate the space - and time-dependent mass transport of radionuclides, their production and decay, and the associated dose rates generated from the radioactivated fluids flowing through pipes. The work couples space- and time-dependent phenomena, treated as only space- or time-dependent in the open literature. The transport and activation methodology (TAM) is used to numerically calculate space- and time-dependent transport and activation of radionuclides in fluids flowing through pipes exposed to radiation fields, and volumetric radioactive sources created by radionuclide motions. The computer program Radionuclide Activation and Transport in Pipe (RNATPA1) performs the numerical calculations required in TAM. The gamma ray dose methodology (GAM) is used to numerically calculate space- and time-dependent gamma ray dose equivalent rates from the volumetric radioactive sources determined by TAM. The computer program Gamma Ray Dose Equivalent Rate (GRDOSER) performs the numerical calculations required in GAM. The scope of conditions considered by TAM and GAM herein include (a) laminar flow in straight pipe, (b)recirculating flow schemes, (c) time-independent fluid velocity distributions, (d) space-dependent monoenergetic neutron flux distribution, (e) space- and time-dependent activation process of a single parent nuclide and transport and decay of a single daughter radionuclide, and (f) assessment of space- and time-dependent gamma ray dose rates, outside the pipe, generated by the space- and time-dependent source term distributions inside of it. The methodologies, however, can be easily extended to include all the situations of interest for solving the phenomena addressed in this dissertation. A comparison is made from results obtained by the described calculational procedures with analytical expressions. The physics of the problems addressed by the new technique and the increased accuracy versus non -space and time-dependent methods are presented. The value of the methods is also discussed. It has been demonstrated that TAM and GAM can be used to enhance the understanding of the space- and time-dependent mass transport of radionuclides, their production and decay, and the associated dose rates related to radioactivated fluids flowing through pipes.

Evaluation of land use regression models for NO2 in El Paso, Texas, USA

PubMed Central

Gonzales, Melissa; Myers, Orrin; Smith, Luther; Olvera, Hector A.; Mukerjee, Shaibal; Li, Wen-Whai; Pingitore, Nicholas; Amaya, Maria; Burchiel, Scott; Berwick, Marianne

2012-01-01

Developing suitable exposure estimates for air pollution health studies is problematic due to spatial and temporal variation in concentrations and often limited monitoring data. Though land use regression models (LURs) are often used for this purpose, their applicability to later periods of time, larger geographic areas, and seasonal variation is largely untested. We evaluate a series of mixed model LURs to describe the spatial-temporal gradients of NO2 across El Paso County, Texas based on measurements collected during cool and warm seasons in 2006–2007 (2006–7). We also evaluated performance of a general additive model (GAM) developed for central El Paso in 1999 to assess spatial gradients across the County in 2006–7. Five LURs were developed iteratively from the study data and their predictions were averaged to provide robust nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentration gradients across the county. Despite differences in sampling time frame, model covariates and model estimation methods, predicted NO2 concentration gradients were similar in the current study as compared to the 1999 study. Through a comprehensive LUR modeling campaign, it was shown that the nature of the most influential predictive variables remained the same for El Paso between the 1999 and 2006–7. The similar LUR results obtained here demonstrate that, at least for El Paso, LURs developed from prior years may still be applicable to assess exposure conditions in subsequent years and in different seasons when seasonal variation is taken into consideration. PMID:22728301

MILP model for integrated balancing and sequencing mixed-model two-sided assembly line with variable launching interval and assignment restrictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azmi, N. I. L. Mohd; Ahmad, R.; Zainuddin, Z. M.

2017-09-01

This research explores the Mixed-Model Two-Sided Assembly Line (MMTSAL). There are two interrelated problems in MMTSAL which are line balancing and model sequencing. In previous studies, many researchers considered these problems separately and only few studied them simultaneously for one-sided line. However in this study, these two problems are solved simultaneously to obtain more efficient solution. The Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model with objectives of minimizing total utility work and idle time is generated by considering variable launching interval and assignment restriction constraint. The problem is analysed using small-size test cases to validate the integrated model. Throughout this paper, numerical experiment was conducted by using General Algebraic Modelling System (GAMS) with the solver CPLEX. Experimental results indicate that integrating the problems of model sequencing and line balancing help to minimise the proposed objectives function.

Estimating PM2.5 speciation concentrations using prototype 4.4 km-resolution MISR aerosol properties over Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Xia; Garay, Michael J.; Diner, David J.; Kalashnikova, Olga V.; Xu, Jin; Liu, Yang

2018-05-01

Research efforts to better characterize the differential toxicity of PM2.5 (particles with aerodynamic diameters less than or equal to 2.5 μm) speciation are often hindered by the sparse or non-existent coverage of ground monitors. The Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) aboard NASA's Terra satellite is one of few satellite aerosol sensors providing information of aerosol shape, size and extinction globally for a long and continuous period that can be used to estimate PM2.5 speciation concentrations since year 2000. Currently, MISR only provides a 17.6 km product for its entire mission with global coverage every 9 days, a bit too coarse for air pollution health effects research and to capture local spatial variability of PM2.5 speciation. In this study, generalized additive models (GAMs) were developed using MISR prototype 4.4 km-resolution aerosol data with meteorological variables and geographical indicators, to predict ground-level concentrations of PM2.5 sulfate, nitrate, organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) in Southern California between 2001 and 2015 at the daily level. The GAMs are able to explain 66%, 62%, 55% and 58% of the daily variability in PM2.5 sulfate, nitrate, OC and EC concentrations during the whole study period, respectively. Predicted concentrations capture large regional patterns as well as fine gradients of the four PM2.5 species in urban areas of Los Angeles and other counties, as well as in the Central Valley. This study is the first attempt to use MISR prototype 4.4 km-resolution AOD (aerosol optical depth) components data to predict PM2.5 sulfate, nitrate, OC and EC concentrations at the sub-regional scale. In spite of its low temporal sampling frequency, our analysis suggests that the MISR 4.4 km fractional AODs provide a promising way to capture the spatial hotspots and long-term temporal trends of PM2.5 speciation, understand the effectiveness of air quality controls, and allow our estimated PM2.5 speciation data to be linked with common spatial units such as census tract or zip code in epidemiological studies. This modeling strategy needs to be validated in other regions when more MISR 4.4 km data becoming available in the future.

Effects of functionalization of carbon nanotubes on their dispersion in an ethylene glycol-water binary mixture--a molecular dynamics and ONIOM investigation.

PubMed

Balamurugan, Kanagasabai; Baskar, Prathab; Kumar, Ravva Mahesh; Das, Sumitesh; Subramanian, Venkatesan

2014-11-28

The present work utilizes classical molecular dynamics simulations to investigate the covalent functionalization of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) and their interaction with ethylene glycol (EG) and water molecules. The MD simulation reveals the dispersion of functionalized carbon nanotubes and the prevention of aggregation in aqueous medium. Further, residue-wise radial distribution function (RRDF) and atomic radial distribution function (ARDF) calculations illustrate the extent of interaction of -OH and -COOH functionalized CNTs with water molecules and the non-functionalized CNT surface with EG. As the presence of the number of functionalized nanotubes increases, enhancement in the propensity for the interaction with water molecules can be observed. However, the same trend decreases for the interaction of EG molecules. In addition, the ONIOM (M06-2X/6-31+G**:AM1) calculations have also been carried out on model systems to quantitatively determine the interaction energy (IE). It is found from these calculations that the relative enhancement in the interaction of water molecules with functionalized CNTs is highly favorable when compared to the interaction of EG.

Fish market prices drive overfishing of the ‘big ones’

PubMed Central

Polymeros, Konstantinos

2014-01-01

The relationship between fish market price and body size has not been explored much in fisheries science. Here, the mean market prices and fish body size were collected in order to examine the hypothesis that large fish, both among- and within-species, are being selectively targeted by fisheries because they may yield greater profit. Trophic levels, vulnerability to fishing and global landings were also collected because these variables may also be related to the market fish price. These relationships were examined using generalized additive models (GAM), which showed that, among species, fish market price was positively dependent on maximum total length (P = 0.0024) and negatively on landings (P = 0.0006), whereas it was independent of trophic level (P > 0.05) and vulnerability to fishing (P > 0.05). When the fish price vs. size relationship was tested within-species, large individuals were consistently attaining higher market prices compared to their medium and small-sized counterparts. We conclude that the selective removal of the larger fish, which is driven by their market price and to a lesser extent by their availability, may contribute to their overfishing. PMID:25392754

Fish market prices drive overfishing of the 'big ones'.

PubMed

Tsikliras, Athanassios C; Polymeros, Konstantinos

2014-01-01

The relationship between fish market price and body size has not been explored much in fisheries science. Here, the mean market prices and fish body size were collected in order to examine the hypothesis that large fish, both among- and within-species, are being selectively targeted by fisheries because they may yield greater profit. Trophic levels, vulnerability to fishing and global landings were also collected because these variables may also be related to the market fish price. These relationships were examined using generalized additive models (GAM), which showed that, among species, fish market price was positively dependent on maximum total length (P = 0.0024) and negatively on landings (P = 0.0006), whereas it was independent of trophic level (P > 0.05) and vulnerability to fishing (P > 0.05). When the fish price vs. size relationship was tested within-species, large individuals were consistently attaining higher market prices compared to their medium and small-sized counterparts. We conclude that the selective removal of the larger fish, which is driven by their market price and to a lesser extent by their availability, may contribute to their overfishing.

Study on the association between residential exposure to N, N-dimethylformamide and hospitalization for respiratory disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Cui; Tian, WeiLi; Wei, YuMei; Li, XiaoXiao; Zhang, QingYu; Huang, ChanKe

2013-10-01

Some studies have confirmed the adverse effects of N, N-dimethylformamide (DMF) on the different organs in occupational exposure workers. However, to the best of our knowledge, risk assessment in the general population has not been available. In this study, a time series analysis of the relationship between DMF exposure and respiratory hospitalization was performed in Longwan district of China in 2008. Generalized additive model (GAMs) reflected that a 101.0 μg m-3 (inter-quartile range) increase in the 1-day lag concentration of DMF resulted in a 1.17 (95% CI: 1.09-1.25) increased relative risk of hospitalization for respiratory problems. The dose-response curve representing the relationship between DMF and the logarithm of the number of hospitalization was adequately linear at 4-200 μg m-3. We proposed a risk on respiratory disease in non-occupational DMF exposure. More information is required to verify this observation and the other endpoints to general population should be investigated during long-term DMF exposure.

Investigation of a Third Order Baro-Damped Vertical Channel of INS.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-12-01

SI%(TINCL3.S:*4SA-") SALP -IA = CQS(TI4CLj/Ch.Ar IF(GA"-GI! )24.25,25 25 Z-F GAM-GI�.924 26 CALP..,A:SGRt4 -SA PMA.SALPHAI 32 G) T’) 2? 24...55 39 CALPHA:-iQR?(1-!ALPmA& SALP "A) C SEGUENT IAEE 24 VZ=0. 135 iS.OU?!%E TPAJ ?4/F4 0PTZ1 F4.*.564 IO/2 1..3 147 1031. V40R ZZ GAwoor.(EQ-HT) CTLAT...TSORT( COS(GA.4l.C:3(GAM8.( (ocrNL- 7#(AI-2 STLAr = S.Nc.%cJS(GI SALP ,4* = CoS(TINCL)/CTLAT 5334 :F(GA"-G1213!.3S,33 35 ChLP’m*:SOfT(1-SALPA.SALPMIAJ

Vulnerabilities to Temperature Effects on Acute Myocardial Infarction Hospital Admissions in South Korea

PubMed Central

Kwon, Bo Yeon; Lee, Eunil; Lee, Suji; Heo, Seulkee; Jo, Kyunghee; Kim, Jinsun; Park, Man Sik

2015-01-01

Most previous studies have focused on the association between acute myocardial function (AMI) and temperature by gender and age. Recently, however, concern has also arisen about those most susceptible to the effects of temperature according to socioeconomic status (SES). The objective of this study was to determine the effect of heat and cold on hospital admissions for AMI by subpopulations (gender, age, living area, and individual SES) in South Korea. The Korea National Health Insurance (KNHI) database was used to examine the effect of heat and cold on hospital admissions for AMI during 2004–2012. We analyzed the increase in AMI hospital admissions both above and below a threshold temperature using Poisson generalized additive models (GAMs) for hot, cold, and warm weather. The Medicaid group, the lowest SES group, had a significantly higher RR of 1.37 (95% CI: 1.07–1.76) for heat and 1.11 (95% CI: 1.04–1.20) for cold among subgroups, while also showing distinctly higher risk curves than NHI for both hot and cold weather. In additions, females, older age group, and those living in urban areas had higher risks from hot and cold temperatures than males, younger age group, and those living in rural areas. PMID:26580643

Developing a Novel Parameter Estimation Method for Agent-Based Model in Immune System Simulation under the Framework of History Matching: A Case Study on Influenza A Virus Infection

PubMed Central

Li, Tingting; Cheng, Zhengguo; Zhang, Le

2017-01-01

Since they can provide a natural and flexible description of nonlinear dynamic behavior of complex system, Agent-based models (ABM) have been commonly used for immune system simulation. However, it is crucial for ABM to obtain an appropriate estimation for the key parameters of the model by incorporating experimental data. In this paper, a systematic procedure for immune system simulation by integrating the ABM and regression method under the framework of history matching is developed. A novel parameter estimation method by incorporating the experiment data for the simulator ABM during the procedure is proposed. First, we employ ABM as simulator to simulate the immune system. Then, the dimension-reduced type generalized additive model (GAM) is employed to train a statistical regression model by using the input and output data of ABM and play a role as an emulator during history matching. Next, we reduce the input space of parameters by introducing an implausible measure to discard the implausible input values. At last, the estimation of model parameters is obtained using the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) by fitting the experiment data among the non-implausible input values. The real Influeza A Virus (IAV) data set is employed to demonstrate the performance of our proposed method, and the results show that the proposed method not only has good fitting and predicting accuracy, but it also owns favorable computational efficiency. PMID:29194393

Developing a Novel Parameter Estimation Method for Agent-Based Model in Immune System Simulation under the Framework of History Matching: A Case Study on Influenza A Virus Infection.

PubMed

Li, Tingting; Cheng, Zhengguo; Zhang, Le

2017-12-01

Since they can provide a natural and flexible description of nonlinear dynamic behavior of complex system, Agent-based models (ABM) have been commonly used for immune system simulation. However, it is crucial for ABM to obtain an appropriate estimation for the key parameters of the model by incorporating experimental data. In this paper, a systematic procedure for immune system simulation by integrating the ABM and regression method under the framework of history matching is developed. A novel parameter estimation method by incorporating the experiment data for the simulator ABM during the procedure is proposed. First, we employ ABM as simulator to simulate the immune system. Then, the dimension-reduced type generalized additive model (GAM) is employed to train a statistical regression model by using the input and output data of ABM and play a role as an emulator during history matching. Next, we reduce the input space of parameters by introducing an implausible measure to discard the implausible input values. At last, the estimation of model parameters is obtained using the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) by fitting the experiment data among the non-implausible input values. The real Influeza A Virus (IAV) data set is employed to demonstrate the performance of our proposed method, and the results show that the proposed method not only has good fitting and predicting accuracy, but it also owns favorable computational efficiency.

Links between Soil Fungal Diversity and Plant and Soil Properties on the Loess Plateau

PubMed Central

Yang, Yang; Dou, Yanxing; Huang, Yimei; An, Shaoshan

2017-01-01

Previous studies have revealed inconsistent correlations between fungal diversity and plant/soil properties from local to global scales. Here, we investigated the internal relationships between soil fungal diversity and plant/soil properties on the Loess Plateau following vegetation restoration, using Illumina sequencing of the internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2) region for fungal identification. We found significant effects of land use types (Af, Artificial forest; Ns, Natural shrub; Ag, Artificial grassland; Ng, Natural grassland; Sc, slope cropland) on soil fungal communities composition, and the dominant phyla were Ascomycota, Basidiomycota, and Zygomycota, which transitioned from Basidiomycota-dominant to Ascomycota-dominant community due to vegetation restoration. The Chao1 richness, Shannon’s diversity and ACE indices were significantly influenced by land use types with the order of Ns > Af > Ng > Ag > Sc, and the total number of OTUs varied widely. In contrast, Good’s coverage and Simpson’s diversity indicated no significant difference among land use types (p > 0.05). Correlation analysis showed that plant and soil properties were closely related to fungal diversity regardless of land use types. In addition, soil organic carbon (SOC) and Hplant (plant richness, Shannon-Wiener index) were strong driving factors that explained fungal diversity. As revealed by the structural equation model (SEM) and generalized additive models (GAMs), fungal diversity was directly and indirectly affected by soil and plant properties, respectively, providing evidence for strong links between soil fungal diversity and plant and soil properties on the Loess Plateau. PMID:29163460

Links between Soil Fungal Diversity and Plant and Soil Properties on the Loess Plateau.

PubMed

Yang, Yang; Dou, Yanxing; Huang, Yimei; An, Shaoshan

2017-01-01

Previous studies have revealed inconsistent correlations between fungal diversity and plant/soil properties from local to global scales. Here, we investigated the internal relationships between soil fungal diversity and plant/soil properties on the Loess Plateau following vegetation restoration, using Illumina sequencing of the internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2) region for fungal identification. We found significant effects of land use types (Af, Artificial forest; Ns, Natural shrub; Ag, Artificial grassland; Ng, Natural grassland; Sc, slope cropland) on soil fungal communities composition, and the dominant phyla were Ascomycota, Basidiomycota , and Zygomycota , which transitioned from Basidiomycota -dominant to Ascomycota -dominant community due to vegetation restoration. The Chao1 richness, Shannon's diversity and ACE indices were significantly influenced by land use types with the order of Ns > Af > Ng > Ag > Sc, and the total number of OTUs varied widely. In contrast, Good's coverage and Simpson's diversity indicated no significant difference among land use types ( p > 0.05). Correlation analysis showed that plant and soil properties were closely related to fungal diversity regardless of land use types. In addition, soil organic carbon (SOC) and H plant (plant richness, Shannon-Wiener index) were strong driving factors that explained fungal diversity. As revealed by the structural equation model (SEM) and generalized additive models (GAMs), fungal diversity was directly and indirectly affected by soil and plant properties, respectively, providing evidence for strong links between soil fungal diversity and plant and soil properties on the Loess Plateau.

Hyperspectral-based predictive modelling of grapevine water status in the Portuguese Douro wine region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pôças, Isabel; Gonçalves, João; Costa, Patrícia Malva; Gonçalves, Igor; Pereira, Luís S.; Cunha, Mario

2017-06-01

In this study, hyperspectral reflectance (HySR) data derived from a handheld spectroradiometer were used to assess the water status of three grapevine cultivars in two sub-regions of Douro wine region during two consecutive years. A large set of potential predictors derived from the HySR data were considered for modelling/predicting the predawn leaf water potential (Ψpd) through different statistical and machine learning techniques. Three HySR vegetation indices were selected as final predictors for the computation of the models and the in-season time trend was removed from data by using a time predictor. The vegetation indices selected were the Normalized Reflectance Index for the wavelengths 554 nm and 561 nm (NRI554;561), the water index (WI) for the wavelengths 900 nm and 970 nm, and the D1 index which is associated with the rate of reflectance increase in the wavelengths of 706 nm and 730 nm. These vegetation indices covered the green, red edge and the near infrared domains of the electromagnetic spectrum. A large set of state-of-the-art analysis and statistical and machine-learning modelling techniques were tested. Predictive modelling techniques based on generalized boosted model (GBM), bagged multivariate adaptive regression splines (B-MARS), generalized additive model (GAM), and Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNN) showed the best performance for predicting Ψpd, with an average determination coefficient (R2) ranging between 0.78 and 0.80 and RMSE varying between 0.11 and 0.12 MPa. When cultivar Touriga Nacional was used for training the models and the cultivars Touriga Franca and Tinta Barroca for testing (independent validation), the models performance was good, particularly for GBM (R2 = 0.85; RMSE = 0.09 MPa). Additionally, the comparison of Ψpd observed and predicted showed an equitable dispersion of data from the various cultivars. The results achieved show a good potential of these predictive models based on vegetation indices to support irrigation scheduling in vineyard.

Impact of meteorology on fine aerosols at Lucas Heights, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crawford, Jagoda; Chambers, Scott; Cohen, David D.; Williams, Alastair; Griffiths, Alan; Stelcer, Eduard; Dyer, Leisa

2016-11-01

Ion Beam Analysis (IBA) techniques were used to assign nine years of PM2.5 observations to seven source types, at Lucas Heights, a topographically complex urban fringe site of Sydney. The highest contributions to total PM2.5 were from motor vehicles (Autos, 26.3%), secondary sulfur (2ndryS, 23.7%), a mixture of industry and aged sea air (IndSaged, 20.6%), and smoke (Smoke, 13.7%). The Autos contribution was highest in winter, whereas 2ndryS was highest in summer, indicating that mitigation measures targeting SO2 release in summer and vehicle exhaust in winter would be most effective in reducing the PM2.5 concentrations at this site. Since concentrations of particulate matter can be significantly affected by local meteorology, generalised additive model (GAM) techniques were employed to investigate relationships between PM2.5 source types and meteorological conditions. The GAM predictors used included: time (seasonal to inter-annual variations), mixing layer depth, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, and atmospheric pressure. Meteorological influences on PM2.5 variability were found to be 58% for soil dust, 46% for Autos, 41% for total PM2.5, and 35% for 2ndryS. Effects were much smaller for other source types. Temperature was found to be an important variable for the determination of total PM2.5, 2ndryS, IndSaged, Soil and Smoke, indicating that future changes in temperature are likely to have an associated change in aerosol concentrations. However, the impact on different source types varied. Temperature had the highest impact on 2ndryS (sometimes more than a factor of 4 increase for temperatures above 25 °C compared to temperatures under 10 °C) and IndSaged, being predominantly secondary aerosols formed in the atmosphere from precursors, whereas wind speed and wind direction were more important for the determination of vehicle exhaust and fresh sea salt concentrations. The marginal effect of relative humidity on 2ndryS increased up to relative humidity of 70-80% and then plateaued, confirming previous findings that (NH4)2SO4 is present in the solid phase below relative humidity of about 80%.

[Effect of climate change on the fisheries conununity pattern in the overwintering ground of open waters of northern East China Sea].

PubMed

Liu, Zun-lei; Yuan, Xing-wei; Yang, Lin-lin; Yan, Li-ping; Tian, Yong-jun; Chen, Jia-hua

2015-03-01

Data sets of 26 fisheries target species from the fishery-depen-dent and fishery-independent surveys in the overwintering ground of open waters of northern East China Sea (OW-NECS), combined sea surface temperature (SST), were used to examine the links between diversity index, pattern of common variability and climate changes based on the principal component analysis (PCA) and generalized additive model (GAM). The results showed that the shift from a cold regime to a warm regime was detected in SST during the 1970s-2011 with step changes around 1982/ 1983. SST increased during the cold regime and the warm regime before 1998 (warming trend period, 1972-1998), and decreased during the warm regime after 1998 (cooling trend period, 1999-2011). Shannon diversity index was largely dependent on the filefish, which contributed up to 50% of the total production as a single species, with low diversity in the waters of the OW-NECS, during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Excluding the filefish, the diversity index linearly increased and decreased during 1972-1998 and 1999-2011, respectively. The variation pattern generally corresponds with the trend in water temperature, strongly suggesting the effect of the SST on the diversity. The first two components (PC1 and PC2) of PCA for target species, which accounted for 32.43% of the total variance, showed evident decadal variation patterns with a step change during 1992-1999 and inter-annual variability with short-period fluctuation, respectively. It seems that PC1 was associated with large scale climatic change, while PC2 was related to inter-annual oceanographic variability such as ENSO events. Linear fitting results showed winEOF1 had significant effect on PC1, and GAM analysis for PC1 showed that winter EOF1 (winEOF1) and summer EOF2 (sumEOF2) can explain 88.9% of the total variance. Nonlinear effect was also found between PC2 and win EOF1, indicating that the fish community structure, which had predominantly decadal/inter-annual variation patterns, was influenced by inter-annual variations in oceanographic conditions.

Beliefs about medications predict adherence to antidepressants in older adults.

PubMed

Fawzi, Waleed; Abdel Mohsen, Mohamed Yousry; Hashem, Abdel Hamid; Moussa, Suaad; Coker, Elizabeth; Wilson, Kenneth C M

2012-01-01

Adherence to treatment is a complex and poorly understood phenomenon. This study investigates the relationship between older depressed patients' adherence to antidepressants and their beliefs about and knowledge of the medication. Assessment was undertaken of 108 outpatients over the age of 55 years diagnosed with depressive disorder and treated for at least four weeks with antidepressants. Adherence was assessed using two self-report measures: the Medication Adherence Rating Scale (MARS) and a Global Adherence Measure (GAM). Potential predictors of adherence investigated included sociodemographic, medication and illness variables. In addition, 33 carers were interviewed regarding general medication beliefs. 56% of patients reported 80% or higher adherence on the GAM. Sociodemographic variables were not associated with adherence on the MARS. Specific beliefs about medicines, such as "my health depends on antidepressants" (necessity) and being less worried about becoming dependant on antidepressants (concern) were highly correlated with adherence. General beliefs about medicines causing harm or being overprescribed, experiencing medication side-effects and severity of depression also correlated with poor adherence. Linear regression with the MARS as the dependent variable explained 44.3% of the variance and showed adherence to be higher in subjects with healthy specific beliefs who received more information about antidepressants and worse with depression severity and autonomic side-effects. Our findings strongly support a role for specific beliefs about medicines in adherence. Challenging patients' beliefs, providing information about treatment and discussing side-effects could improve adherence. Poor response to treatment and medication side-effects can indicate poor adherence and should be considered before switching medications.

A remote sensing and GIS-enabled asset management system (RS-GAMS).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-04-01

Under U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) Commercial Remote Sensing and : Spatial Information (CRS&SI) Technology Initiative 2 of the Transportation : Infrastructure Construction and Condition Assessment, an intelligent Remote Sensing and : GIS-b...

Two solitudes: post-tsunami and post-conflict Aceh.

PubMed

Waizenegger, Arno; Hyndman, Jennifer

2010-07-01

In August 2005, after the devastating tsunami in the Indian Ocean Basin, a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for the cessation of hostilities was signed by Aceh's longstanding adversaries-the Government of Indonesia and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM). The tsunami was a major catalyst for 'disaster diplomacy'-international political pressure, which, this paper argues, was an important ingredient in creating conditions for the MoU, although the situation within Aceh also shaped the peace process. Based on interviews conducted in 2006 and 2007 with government officials, GAM representatives and fighters, and non-governmental organization staff in Aceh, this paper finds that assistance for tsunami survivors far exceeds that available for conflict survivors and ex-combatants. The formation of these two solitudes-the tsunami-affected and the conflict-affected-compounds challenges for sustaining peace in Aceh. This research points to an enduring lack of livelihoods for former fighters and conflict victims that may threaten a sustainable peace.

Comparative polyphenolic content and antioxidant activities of Genista tinctoria L. and Genistella sagittalis (L.) Gams (Fabaceae).

PubMed

Hanganu, Daniela; Olah, Neli Kinga; Benedec, Daniela; Mocan, Andrei; Crisan, Gianina; Vlase, Laurian; Popica, Iulia; Oniga, Ilioara

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was focused on the polyphenolic composition and antioxidant capacity of Genista tinctoria L. and Genistella sagittalis (L.) Gams. A qualitative and quantitative characterization of the main phenolic compounds from the extracts were carried out using a HPLC-MS method. The total polyphenolic and flavonoid content was spectrophotometrically determined. The antioxidant activity towards various radicals generated in different systems was evaluated usingDPPH bleaching method, Trolox equivalent antioxidant capacity assay (TEAC) and Oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC), and all indicated that G. tinctoria extract was more antioxidant than G. sagittalis extract.That was in good agreement with the total polyphenolic and flavonoidic content.Chlorogenic acid, p-coumaric acid, isoquercitrin and apigenin were identified in bothspecies. Caffeic acid, ferulic acid, hyperoside, rutin, quercitrin and luteolin were found only in G. tinctoria, while quercetin was determined in G. sagittalis.

On the reported magnetic precursor of the 1993 guam earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, J.N.; Love, J.J.; Johnston, M.J.S.; Yumoto, K.

2009-01-01

Using 1-second magnetometer data recorded 67 km from the epicenter of the 1993 Mw 7.7 Guam earthquake, Hayakawa et al. (1996) and Miyahara et al. (1999) identify anomalous precursory changes in ultra-low frequency magnetic polarization (the ratio of vertical to horizontal field components). In a check of their results, we compare their data (GAM) with 1-second data from the Kakioka observatory (KAK) in Japan and the global magnetic activity index Kp. We also examine log books kept by USGS staff working on the Guam magnetic observatory. We find (1) analysis problems with both Hayakawa et al. and Miyahara et al., (2) significant correlation between the GAM, KAK, and Kp data, and (3) an absence of identifiable localized anomalous signals occurring prior to the earthquake. The changes we do find in polarization are part of normal global magnetic activity; they are unrelated to the earthquake. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Estimating particle speciation concentrations using MISR retrieved aerosol properties in southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, X.; Liu, Y.; Diner, D. J.; Garay, M. J.

2016-12-01

Ambient fine particle (PM2.5) has been positively associated with increased mortality and morbidity worldwide. Recent studies highlight the characteristics and differential toxicity of PM2.5 chemical components, which are important for identifying sources, developing targeted particulate matter (PM) control strategies, and protecting public health. Modelling with satellite retrieved data has been proved as the most cost-effective way to estimate ground PM2.5 levels; however, limited studies have predict PM2.5 chemical components with this method. In this study, the experimental MISR 4.4 km aerosol retrievals were used to predict ground-level particle sulfate, nitrite, organic carbon and element carbon concentrations in 16 counties of southern California. The PM2.5 chemical components concentrations were obtained from the National Chemical Speciation Network (CSN) and the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network. A generalized additive model (GAM) was developed based on 16-years data (2000-2015) by combining the MISR aerosol retrievals, meteorological variables and geographical indicators together. Model performance was assessed by model fitted R2 and root-mean-square error (RMSE) and 10-fold cross validation. Spatial patterns of sulfate, nitrate, OC and EC concentrations were also examined with 2-D prediction surfaces. This is the first attempt to develop high-resolution spatial models to predict PM2.5 chemical component concentrations with MISR retrieved aerosol properties, which will provide valuable population exposure estimates for future studies on the characteristics and differential toxicity of PM2.5 speciation.

Escherichia coli attachment to model particulates: The effects of bacterial cell characteristics and particulate properties.

PubMed

Liang, Xiao; Liao, Chunyu; Soupir, Michelle L; Jarboe, Laura R; Thompson, Michael L; Dixon, Philip M

2017-01-01

E. coli bacteria move in streams freely in a planktonic state or attached to suspended particulates. Attachment is a dynamic process, and the fraction of attached microorganisms is thought to be affected by both bacterial characteristics and particulate properties. In this study, we investigated how the properties of cell surfaces and stream particulates influence attachment. Attachment assays were conducted for 77 E. coli strains and three model particulates (ferrihydrite, Ca-montmorillonite, or corn stover) under environmentally relevant conditions. Surface area, particle size distribution, and total carbon content were determined for each type of particulate. Among the three particulates, attachment fractions to corn stover were significantly larger than the attachments to 2-line ferrihydrite (p-value = 0.0036) and Ca-montmorillonite (p-value = 0.022). Furthermore, attachment to Ca-montmorillonite and corn stover was successfully modeled by a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) using cell characteristics as predictor variables. The natural logarithm of the net charge on the bacterial surface had a significant, positive, and linear impact on the attachment of E. coli bacteria to Ca-montmorillonite (p-value = 0.013), but it did not significantly impact the attachment to corn stover (p-value = 0.36). The large diversities in cell characteristics among 77 E. coli strains, particulate properties, and attachment fractions clearly demonstrated the inadequacy of using a static parameter or linear coefficient to predict the attachment behavior of E. coli in stream water quality models.

Assessing CO2 Mitigation Options Utilizing Detailed Electricity Characteristics and Including Renewable Generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bensaida, K.; Alie, Colin; Elkamel, A.; Almansoori, A.

2017-08-01

This paper presents a novel techno-economic optimization model for assessing the effectiveness of CO2 mitigation options for the electricity generation sub-sector that includes renewable energy generation. The optimization problem was formulated as a MINLP model using the GAMS modeling system. The model seeks the minimization of the power generation costs under CO2 emission constraints by dispatching power from low CO2 emission-intensity units. The model considers the detailed operation of the electricity system to effectively assess the performance of GHG mitigation strategies and integrates load balancing, carbon capture and carbon taxes as methods for reducing CO2 emissions. Two case studies are discussed to analyze the benefits and challenges of the CO2 reduction methods in the electricity system. The proposed mitigations options would not only benefit the environment, but they will as well improve the marginal cost of producing energy which represents an advantage for stakeholders.

The effects of environmental factors on daytime sandeel distribution and abundance on the Dogger Bank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Kooij, Jeroen; Scott, Beth E.; Mackinson, Steven

2008-10-01

Spring distribution and abundance of lesser sandeels during the day were linked to zooplankton densities, seabed substrate and various hydrographic factors using small scale empirical data collected in two areas on the Dogger Bank in 2004, 2005 and 2006. The results of a two-step generalized additive model (GAM) suggested that suitable seabed substrate and temperature best explain sandeel distribution (presence/absence) and that sandeel abundance (given presence) was best described by a model that included bottom temperature, difference between surface and bottom temperature and surface salinity. The current study suggests that suitable seabed substrate explains sandeel distribution in the water column. Bottom temperature and surface salinity also played an important role in explaining distribution and abundance, and we speculate that sandeels favour hydrographically dynamic areas. Contrary to our hypothesis sandeels were not strongly associated with areas of high zooplankton density. We speculate that in early spring on the western Dogger Bank plankton is still patchily distributed and that sandeels only emerge from the seabed when feeding conditions near their night-time burrowing habitat are optimal. The results also suggested that when abundance is over a threshold level, the number of sandeel schools increased rather than the schools becoming bigger. This relationship between patchiness and abundance has implications for mortality rates and hence fisheries management.

Implementation of landslide susceptibility maps in Lower Austria as part of risk governance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Rainer; Petschko, Helene; Bauer, Christian; Glade, Thomas; Granica, Klaus; Heiss, Gerhard; Leopold, Philip; Pomaroli, Gilbert; Proske, Herwig; Schweigl, Joachim

2013-04-01

Landslides frequently cause damage to agricultural land and infrastructure in Lower Austria - a province of Austria. Also settlements and people are threatened by landslides. To reduce landslide risks and to prevent the establishment of new settlements in highly landslide prone areas, the project "MoNOE" (Method development for landslide susceptibility modeling in Lower Austria) was set up by the provincial government. The main aim of the project is the development of methods to model rock fall and slide susceptibility for an area of approx. 15,900 km2 and to implement the resulting susceptibility maps into the spatial planning strategies of the state. Right from the beginning of the project a close cooperation between the involved scientists and the stakeholders from the Geological Survey of Lower Austria and the Department of Spatial Planning and Regional Policy of Lower Austria was established to ensure that method development and final susceptibility maps meet exactly the needs and demands of the stakeholders. This posed huge challenges, together with its realization in the large study area and a (heterogeneous) complex geological situation,. Limitations were given by restricted data availability (e.g. for geology or landslide inventories) in such a large study area. Rock fall susceptibility was modeled by a combined approach of determining rock fall release areas by empirical slope thresholds (dependent on geology) followed by empirical run-out modeling. Slide susceptibility was modeled based on the statistical approaches of weights of evidence (WofE) and generalized additive models (GAM) by two different research groups. Huge efforts were spent on the validation of all susceptibility models. In a later stage of the project we found that the best scientific maps are not necessarily the best maps to be implemented in spatial planning strategies. Thus, in close cooperation with the stakeholders, decisions had to be taken to find the best resolution of the maps, the number of susceptibility classes, their colour and naming, as well as on the instructions for actions referring to each susceptibility class respectively. All susceptibility maps showed very good validation results. Both, the WofE and the GAM slide susceptibility map showed high median AUROC values of 0.9 and the geomorphological plausibility proved to be very good in both cases. Due to these results it was concluded the stakeholders should take the decision which of the two slide susceptibility maps should be used. This decision was performed as a blind test providing resulting maps and their respective performance measures but coded with a color so that the stakeholders did not know which maps were produced by whom and with which method. This presentation is thus focusing on a detailed description of all these aspects and it is discussed how this participative approach led to a high acceptance of the final landslide susceptibility maps by the stakeholders. Consequently these maps are going to be implemented in the spatial planning strategies soon.

Characterizing a Foraging Hotspot for Short-Finned Pilot Whales and Blainville’s Beaked Whales Located off the West Side of Hawai‘i Island by Using Tagging and Oceanographic Data

PubMed Central

Abecassis, Melanie; Polovina, Jeffrey; Baird, Robin W.; Copeland, Adrienne; Drazen, Jeffrey C.; Domokos, Reka; Oleson, Erin; Jia, Yanli; Schorr, Gregory S.; Webster, Daniel L.; Andrews, Russel D.

2015-01-01

Satellite tagging data for short-finned pilot whales (Globicephala macrorhynchus) and Blainville’s beaked whales (Mesoplodon densirostris) were used to identify core insular foraging regions off the Kona (west) Coast of Hawai‘i Island. Ship-based active acoustic surveys and oceanographic model output were used in generalized additive models (GAMs) and mixed models to characterize the oceanography of these regions and to examine relationships between whale density and the environment. The regions of highest density for pilot whales and Blainville’s beaked whales were located between the 1000 and 2500 m isobaths and the 250 and 2000 m isobaths, respectively. Both species were associated with slope waters, but given the topography of the area, the horizontal distribution of beaked whales was narrower and located in shallower waters than that of pilot whales. The key oceanographic parameters characterizing the foraging regions were bathymetry, temperature at depth, and a high density of midwater micronekton scattering at 70 kHz in 400–650 m depths that likely represent the island-associated deep mesopelagic boundary community and serve as prey for the prey of the whales. Thus, our results suggest that off the Kona Coast, and potentially around other main Hawaiian Islands, the deep mesopelagic boundary community is key to a food web that supports insular cetacean populations. PMID:26605917

Use of a health information telephone line, Info-santé CLSC, for the surveillance of waterborne gastroenteritis.

PubMed

Gilbert, Marie-Line; Levallois, Patrick; Rodriguez, Manuel J

2006-06-01

The increasing frequency of waterborne outbreaks demonstrates that classic indicators used for the surveillance of the microbiological quality of drinking water have several gaps and that routine public health surveillance seems insufficient to allow for the rapid detection of these outbreaks. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the possibility of using a regional health information telephone line, 'Info-Santé CLSC' (Info-Health Local Community Health Centre), for the surveillance of waterborne gastroenteritis. This study measured the incidence rate of calls for acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) placed to the Info-Santé CLSC line, investigated the relationship between the frequency of calls for AGI placed to the Info-Santé CLSC line and the turbidity of the treated water in the Quebec City drinking water plant and evaluated the relevance and the conditions of use of the Info-Santé CLSC system for the surveillance of waterborne enteric illness. A relationship between the turbidity and the calls for AGI placed to Info-Santé CLSC line was observed. Significant time lags (11, 15 and 17 days prior to the outcome) were identified in the final model derived from a Poisson model using generalized additive models (GAM) as a time series analysis. Some recommendations to improve the system were formulated even though the system already seems to be useful for the surveillance of waterborne enteric diseases.

The short-term effects of air pollutants on respiratory disease mortality in Wuhan, China: comparison of time-series and case-crossover analyses

PubMed Central

Ren, Meng; Li, Na; Wang, Zhan; Liu, Yisi; Chen, Xi; Chu, Yuanyuan; Li, Xiangyu; Zhu, Zhongmin; Tian, Liqiao; Xiang, Hao

2017-01-01

Few studies have compared different methods when exploring the short-term effects of air pollutants on respiratory disease mortality in Wuhan, China. This study assesses the association between air pollutants and respiratory disease mortality with both time-series and time-stratified–case-crossover designs. The generalized additive model (GAM) and the conditional logistic regression model were used to assess the short-term effects of air pollutants on respiratory disease mortality. Stratified analyses were performed by age, sex, and diseases. A 10 μg/m3 increment in SO2 level was associated with an increase in relative risk for all respiratory disease mortality of 2.4% and 1.9% in the case-crossover and time-series analyses in single pollutant models, respectively. Strong evidence of an association between NO2 and daily respiratory disease mortality among men or people older than 65 years was found in the case-crossover study. There was a positive association between air pollutants and respiratory disease mortality in Wuhan, China. Both time-series and case-crossover analyses consistently reveal the association between three air pollutants and respiratory disease mortality. The estimates of association between air pollution and respiratory disease mortality from the case–crossover analysis displayed greater variation than that from the time-series analysis. PMID:28084399

The short-term effects of air pollutants on respiratory disease mortality in Wuhan, China: comparison of time-series and case-crossover analyses.

PubMed

Ren, Meng; Li, Na; Wang, Zhan; Liu, Yisi; Chen, Xi; Chu, Yuanyuan; Li, Xiangyu; Zhu, Zhongmin; Tian, Liqiao; Xiang, Hao

2017-01-13

Few studies have compared different methods when exploring the short-term effects of air pollutants on respiratory disease mortality in Wuhan, China. This study assesses the association between air pollutants and respiratory disease mortality with both time-series and time-stratified-case-crossover designs. The generalized additive model (GAM) and the conditional logistic regression model were used to assess the short-term effects of air pollutants on respiratory disease mortality. Stratified analyses were performed by age, sex, and diseases. A 10 μg/m 3 increment in SO 2 level was associated with an increase in relative risk for all respiratory disease mortality of 2.4% and 1.9% in the case-crossover and time-series analyses in single pollutant models, respectively. Strong evidence of an association between NO 2 and daily respiratory disease mortality among men or people older than 65 years was found in the case-crossover study. There was a positive association between air pollutants and respiratory disease mortality in Wuhan, China. Both time-series and case-crossover analyses consistently reveal the association between three air pollutants and respiratory disease mortality. The estimates of association between air pollution and respiratory disease mortality from the case-crossover analysis displayed greater variation than that from the time-series analysis.

The short-term effects of air pollutants on respiratory disease mortality in Wuhan, China: comparison of time-series and case-crossover analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Meng; Li, Na; Wang, Zhan; Liu, Yisi; Chen, Xi; Chu, Yuanyuan; Li, Xiangyu; Zhu, Zhongmin; Tian, Liqiao; Xiang, Hao

2017-01-01

Few studies have compared different methods when exploring the short-term effects of air pollutants on respiratory disease mortality in Wuhan, China. This study assesses the association between air pollutants and respiratory disease mortality with both time-series and time-stratified-case-crossover designs. The generalized additive model (GAM) and the conditional logistic regression model were used to assess the short-term effects of air pollutants on respiratory disease mortality. Stratified analyses were performed by age, sex, and diseases. A 10 μg/m3 increment in SO2 level was associated with an increase in relative risk for all respiratory disease mortality of 2.4% and 1.9% in the case-crossover and time-series analyses in single pollutant models, respectively. Strong evidence of an association between NO2 and daily respiratory disease mortality among men or people older than 65 years was found in the case-crossover study. There was a positive association between air pollutants and respiratory disease mortality in Wuhan, China. Both time-series and case-crossover analyses consistently reveal the association between three air pollutants and respiratory disease mortality. The estimates of association between air pollution and respiratory disease mortality from the case-crossover analysis displayed greater variation than that from the time-series analysis.

Characterizing a Foraging Hotspot for Short-Finned Pilot Whales and Blainville's Beaked Whales Located off the West Side of Hawai'i Island by Using Tagging and Oceanographic Data.

PubMed

Abecassis, Melanie; Polovina, Jeffrey; Baird, Robin W; Copeland, Adrienne; Drazen, Jeffrey C; Domokos, Reka; Oleson, Erin; Jia, Yanli; Schorr, Gregory S; Webster, Daniel L; Andrews, Russel D

2015-01-01

Satellite tagging data for short-finned pilot whales (Globicephala macrorhynchus) and Blainville's beaked whales (Mesoplodon densirostris) were used to identify core insular foraging regions off the Kona (west) Coast of Hawai'i Island. Ship-based active acoustic surveys and oceanographic model output were used in generalized additive models (GAMs) and mixed models to characterize the oceanography of these regions and to examine relationships between whale density and the environment. The regions of highest density for pilot whales and Blainville's beaked whales were located between the 1000 and 2500 m isobaths and the 250 and 2000 m isobaths, respectively. Both species were associated with slope waters, but given the topography of the area, the horizontal distribution of beaked whales was narrower and located in shallower waters than that of pilot whales. The key oceanographic parameters characterizing the foraging regions were bathymetry, temperature at depth, and a high density of midwater micronekton scattering at 70 kHz in 400-650 m depths that likely represent the island-associated deep mesopelagic boundary community and serve as prey for the prey of the whales. Thus, our results suggest that off the Kona Coast, and potentially around other main Hawaiian Islands, the deep mesopelagic boundary community is key to a food web that supports insular cetacean populations.

Developing a dengue forecast model using machine learning: A case study in China.

PubMed

Guo, Pi; Liu, Tao; Zhang, Qin; Wang, Li; Xiao, Jianpeng; Zhang, Qingying; Luo, Ganfeng; Li, Zhihao; He, Jianfeng; Zhang, Yonghui; Ma, Wenjun

2017-10-01

In China, dengue remains an important public health issue with expanded areas and increased incidence recently. Accurate and timely forecasts of dengue incidence in China are still lacking. We aimed to use the state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms to develop an accurate predictive model of dengue. Weekly dengue cases, Baidu search queries and climate factors (mean temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) during 2011-2014 in Guangdong were gathered. A dengue search index was constructed for developing the predictive models in combination with climate factors. The observed year and week were also included in the models to control for the long-term trend and seasonality. Several machine learning algorithms, including the support vector regression (SVR) algorithm, step-down linear regression model, gradient boosted regression tree algorithm (GBM), negative binomial regression model (NBM), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) linear regression model and generalized additive model (GAM), were used as candidate models to predict dengue incidence. Performance and goodness of fit of the models were assessed using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and R-squared measures. The residuals of the models were examined using the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation function analyses to check the validity of the models. The models were further validated using dengue surveillance data from five other provinces. The epidemics during the last 12 weeks and the peak of the 2014 large outbreak were accurately forecasted by the SVR model selected by a cross-validation technique. Moreover, the SVR model had the consistently smallest prediction error rates for tracking the dynamics of dengue and forecasting the outbreaks in other areas in China. The proposed SVR model achieved a superior performance in comparison with other forecasting techniques assessed in this study. The findings can help the government and community respond early to dengue epidemics.

Potential contributions of heat shock proteins to temperature-dependent sex determination in the American alligator.

PubMed

Kohno, S; Katsu, Y; Urushitani, H; Ohta, Y; Iguchi, T; Guillette, L J

2010-01-01

Sex determination in the American alligator depends on the incubation temperature experienced during a thermo-sensitive period (TSP), although sex determination can be 'reversed' by embryonic exposure to an estrogenic compound. Thus, temperature and estrogenic signals play essential roles during temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD). The genetic basis for TSD is poorly understood, although previous studies observed that many of the genes associated with genetic sex determination (GSD) are expressed in species with TSD. Heat shock proteins (HSPs), good candidates because of their temperature-sensitive expression, have not been examined in regard to TSD but HSPs have the ability to modify steroid receptor function. A number of HSP cDNAs (HSP27, DNAJ, HSP40, HSP47, HSP60, HSP70A, HSP70B, HSP70C, HSP75, HSP90alpha, HSP90beta, and HSP108) as well as cold-inducible RNA binding protein (CIRBP) and HSP-binding protein (HSPBP) were cloned, and expression of their mRNA in the gonadal-adrenal-mesonephros complex (GAM) was investigated. Embryonic and neonatal GAMs exhibited mRNA for all of the HSPs examined during and after the TSP. One-month-old GAMs were separated into 3 portions (gonad, adrenal gland, and mesonephros), and sexual dimorphism in the mRNA expression of gonadal HSP27 (male > female), gonadal HSP70A (male < female), and adrenal HSP90 alpha (male > female) was observed. These findings provide new insights on TSD and suggest that further studies examining the role of HSPs during gonadal development are needed. (c) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel.

A remote sensing and GIS-enabled asset management system (RS-GAMS) : phase 2.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-04-01

Under the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) Commercial Remote Sensing and Spatial : Information (CRS&SI) Technology Initiative 2 of the Transportation Infrastructure Construction : and Condition Assessment, an intelligent Remote Sensing and GIS...

Biofuel supply chain considering depreciation cost of installed plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabbani, Masoud; Ramezankhani, Farshad; Giahi, Ramin; Farshbaf-Geranmayeh, Amir

2016-06-01

Due to the depletion of the fossil fuels and major concerns about the security of energy in the future to produce fuels, the importance of utilizing the renewable energies is distinguished. Nowadays there has been a growing interest for biofuels. Thus, this paper reveals a general optimization model which enables the selection of preprocessing centers for the biomass, biofuel plants, and warehouses to store the biofuels. The objective of this model is to maximize the total benefits. Costs of the model consist of setup cost of preprocessing centers, plants and warehouses, transportation costs, production costs, emission cost and the depreciation cost. At first, the deprecation cost of the centers is calculated by means of three methods. The model chooses the best depreciation method in each period by switching between them. A numerical example is presented and solved by CPLEX solver in GAMS software and finally, sensitivity analyses are accomplished.

The effect of PM2.5 on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Beijing areas during the Olympic Games.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhaobin, S.

2016-12-01

To investigate the impact of emission reduction and traffic restrictions measures before and after the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing on public health, which had cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Air quality and the hospitalizations of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases from Beijing Emergency Medical Center were collected from July to September during 2006 2010 in this paper. Using time series method of nonparametric generalized additive model (GAM) by controlling the long-term trend, "week effect", the influence of meteorological factors, to establish the relationship between the concentrations of PM2.5 and hospitalizations including gender and years stratification. There is significantly associations between PM2.5 and different cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease with a lag of 0 2d. From July to September during 2006 to 2010, the relative risks (RR) of different groups are least in 2008 and are largest in 2009. Increases of 0.0%, 0.18% and 0.07% in 2008, 3.43%-2.10% and 2.97% in 2009 for total, male and female cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases hospitalizations were associated with increase of 10μg/m3 in PM2.5. In addition, it is very important for reducing the risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Beijing by taking the related measures during the Olympic Game in 2008.

In vitro differential diagnosis of clavus and verruca by a predictive model generated from electrical impedance.

PubMed

Hung, Chien-Ya; Sun, Pei-Lun; Chiang, Shu-Jen; Jaw, Fu-Shan

2014-01-01

Similar clinical appearances prevent accurate diagnosis of two common skin diseases, clavus and verruca. In this study, electrical impedance is employed as a novel tool to generate a predictive model for differentiating these two diseases. We used 29 clavus and 28 verruca lesions. To obtain impedance parameters, a LCR-meter system was applied to measure capacitance (C), resistance (Re), impedance magnitude (Z), and phase angle (θ). These values were combined with lesion thickness (d) to characterize the tissue specimens. The results from clavus and verruca were then fitted to a univariate logistic regression model with the generalized estimating equations (GEE) method. In model generation, log ZSD and θSD were formulated as predictors by fitting a multiple logistic regression model with the same GEE method. The potential nonlinear effects of covariates were detected by fitting generalized additive models (GAM). Moreover, the model was validated by the goodness-of-fit (GOF) assessments. Significant mean differences of the index d, Re, Z, and θ are found between clavus and verruca (p<0.001). A final predictive model is established with Z and θ indices. The model fits the observed data quite well. In GOF evaluation, the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve is 0.875 (>0.7), the adjusted generalized R2 is 0.512 (>0.3), and the p value of the Hosmer-Lemeshow GOF test is 0.350 (>0.05). This technique promises to provide an approved model for differential diagnosis of clavus and verruca. It could provide a rapid, relatively low-cost, safe and non-invasive screening tool in clinic use.

Estimating regional spatial and temporal variability of PM(2.5) concentrations using satellite data, meteorology, and land use information.

PubMed

Liu, Yang; Paciorek, Christopher J; Koutrakis, Petros

2009-06-01

Studies of chronic health effects due to exposures to particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters

Modeling Linguistic Variables With Regression Models: Addressing Non-Gaussian Distributions, Non-independent Observations, and Non-linear Predictors With Random Effects and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape

PubMed Central

Coupé, Christophe

2018-01-01

As statistical approaches are getting increasingly used in linguistics, attention must be paid to the choice of methods and algorithms used. This is especially true since they require assumptions to be satisfied to provide valid results, and because scientific articles still often fall short of reporting whether such assumptions are met. Progress is being, however, made in various directions, one of them being the introduction of techniques able to model data that cannot be properly analyzed with simpler linear regression models. We report recent advances in statistical modeling in linguistics. We first describe linear mixed-effects regression models (LMM), which address grouping of observations, and generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMM), which offer a family of distributions for the dependent variable. Generalized additive models (GAM) are then introduced, which allow modeling non-linear parametric or non-parametric relationships between the dependent variable and the predictors. We then highlight the possibilities offered by generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS). We explain how they make it possible to go beyond common distributions, such as Gaussian or Poisson, and offer the appropriate inferential framework to account for ‘difficult’ variables such as count data with strong overdispersion. We also demonstrate how they offer interesting perspectives on data when not only the mean of the dependent variable is modeled, but also its variance, skewness, and kurtosis. As an illustration, the case of phonemic inventory size is analyzed throughout the article. For over 1,500 languages, we consider as predictors the number of speakers, the distance from Africa, an estimation of the intensity of language contact, and linguistic relationships. We discuss the use of random effects to account for genealogical relationships, the choice of appropriate distributions to model count data, and non-linear relationships. Relying on GAMLSS, we assess a range of candidate distributions, including the Sichel, Delaporte, Box-Cox Green and Cole, and Box-Cox t distributions. We find that the Box-Cox t distribution, with appropriate modeling of its parameters, best fits the conditional distribution of phonemic inventory size. We finally discuss the specificities of phoneme counts, weak effects, and how GAMLSS should be considered for other linguistic variables. PMID:29713298

Modeling Linguistic Variables With Regression Models: Addressing Non-Gaussian Distributions, Non-independent Observations, and Non-linear Predictors With Random Effects and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape.

PubMed

Coupé, Christophe

2018-01-01

As statistical approaches are getting increasingly used in linguistics, attention must be paid to the choice of methods and algorithms used. This is especially true since they require assumptions to be satisfied to provide valid results, and because scientific articles still often fall short of reporting whether such assumptions are met. Progress is being, however, made in various directions, one of them being the introduction of techniques able to model data that cannot be properly analyzed with simpler linear regression models. We report recent advances in statistical modeling in linguistics. We first describe linear mixed-effects regression models (LMM), which address grouping of observations, and generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMM), which offer a family of distributions for the dependent variable. Generalized additive models (GAM) are then introduced, which allow modeling non-linear parametric or non-parametric relationships between the dependent variable and the predictors. We then highlight the possibilities offered by generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS). We explain how they make it possible to go beyond common distributions, such as Gaussian or Poisson, and offer the appropriate inferential framework to account for 'difficult' variables such as count data with strong overdispersion. We also demonstrate how they offer interesting perspectives on data when not only the mean of the dependent variable is modeled, but also its variance, skewness, and kurtosis. As an illustration, the case of phonemic inventory size is analyzed throughout the article. For over 1,500 languages, we consider as predictors the number of speakers, the distance from Africa, an estimation of the intensity of language contact, and linguistic relationships. We discuss the use of random effects to account for genealogical relationships, the choice of appropriate distributions to model count data, and non-linear relationships. Relying on GAMLSS, we assess a range of candidate distributions, including the Sichel, Delaporte, Box-Cox Green and Cole, and Box-Cox t distributions. We find that the Box-Cox t distribution, with appropriate modeling of its parameters, best fits the conditional distribution of phonemic inventory size. We finally discuss the specificities of phoneme counts, weak effects, and how GAMLSS should be considered for other linguistic variables.

Modeling acute respiratory illness during the 2007 San Diego wildland fires using a coupled emissions-transport system and generalized additive modeling.

PubMed

Thelen, Brian; French, Nancy H F; Koziol, Benjamin W; Billmire, Michael; Owen, Robert Chris; Johnson, Jeffrey; Ginsberg, Michele; Loboda, Tatiana; Wu, Shiliang

2013-11-05

A study of the impacts on respiratory health of the 2007 wildland fires in and around San Diego County, California is presented. This study helps to address the impact of fire emissions on human health by modeling the exposure potential of proximate populations to atmospheric particulate matter (PM) from vegetation fires. Currently, there is no standard methodology to model and forecast the potential respiratory health effects of PM plumes from wildland fires, and in part this is due to a lack of methodology for rigorously relating the two. The contribution in this research specifically targets that absence by modeling explicitly the emission, transmission, and distribution of PM following a wildland fire in both space and time. Coupled empirical and deterministic models describing particulate matter (PM) emissions and atmospheric dispersion were linked to spatially explicit syndromic surveillance health data records collected through the San Diego Aberration Detection and Incident Characterization (SDADIC) system using a Generalized Additive Modeling (GAM) statistical approach. Two levels of geographic aggregation were modeled, a county-wide regional level and division of the county into six sub regions. Selected health syndromes within SDADIC from 16 emergency departments within San Diego County relevant for respiratory health were identified for inclusion in the model. The model captured the variability in emergency department visits due to several factors by including nine ancillary variables in addition to wildfire PM concentration. The model coefficients and nonlinear function plots indicate that at peak fire PM concentrations the odds of a person seeking emergency care is increased by approximately 50% compared to non-fire conditions (40% for the regional case, 70% for a geographically specific case). The sub-regional analyses show that demographic variables also influence respiratory health outcomes from smoke. The model developed in this study allows a quantitative assessment and prediction of respiratory health outcomes as it relates to the location and timing of wildland fire emissions relevant for application to future wildfire scenarios. An important aspect of the resulting model is its generality thus allowing its ready use for geospatial assessments of respiratory health impacts under possible future wildfire conditions in the San Diego region. The coupled statistical and process-based modeling demonstrates an end-to-end methodology for generating reasonable estimates of wildland fire PM concentrations and health effects at resolutions compatible with syndromic surveillance data.

Testing association between soil bacterial diversity and soil carbon storage on the Loess Plateau.

PubMed

Yang, Yang; Dou, Yanxing; An, Shaoshan

2018-06-01

Bacteria are widely distributed and play an important role in soil carbon (C) cycling. The impact of soil bacterial diversity on soil C storage has been well established, yet little is known about the underlying mechanisms and the interactions among them. Here, we examined the association between soil bacterial diversity and soil C storage in relation to vegetation restoration on the Loess Plateau. The dominant phyla among land use types (artificial forest, Af; natural shrubland, Ns; artificial grassland, Ag; natural grassland, Ng; slope cropland, Sc) were Acidobacteria, Actinobacteria, Alphaproteobacteria, and Betaproteobacteria, which transited from Acidobacteria-dominant to Actinobacteria-dominant community due to vegetation restoration. Soil C storage and the Shannon diversity index of soil bacterial community (H Bacteria ) showed the order Ns > Ng > Af > Ag > Sc, whereas no significant difference was found in Good's coverage (p > .05). Further, a strong relationship was observed between the relative abundance of dominant bacterial groups and soil C storage (p < .05). Additionally, soil bacterial diversity was closely related to soil C storage based on the structural equation model (SEM) and generalized additive models (GAMs). Specifically, soil C storage had the largest deterministic effects, explaining >70% of the variation and suggesting a strong association between soil C storage and soil bacterial diversity. Overall, we propose that further studies are necessary with a focus on the soil bacterial groups with specific functions in relation to soil C storage on the Loess Plateau. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Oceanographic Determinants of Bycatch Patterns in the California Drift Gillnet Fishery: Building an EBFM Tool for Sustainable Fisheries.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hahlbeck, N.; Scales, K. L.; Hazen, E. L.; Bograd, S. J.

2016-12-01

The reduction of bycatch, or incidental capture of non-target species in a fishery, is a key objective of ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) and critical to the conservation of many threatened marine species. Prediction of bycatch events is therefore of great importance to EBFM efforts. Here, bycatch of the ocean sunfish (Mola mola) and bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) in the California drift gillnet fishery is modeled using a suite of remotely sensed environmental variables as predictors. Data from 8321 gillnet sets was aggregated by month to reduce zero inflation and autocorrelation among sets, and a set of a priori generalized additive models (GAMs) was created for each species based on literature review and preliminary data exploration. Each of the models was fit using a binomial family with a logit link in R, and Aikake's Information Criterion with correction (AICc) was used in the first stage of model selection. K-fold cross validation was used in the second stage of model selection and performance assessment, using the least-squares linear model of predicted vs. observed values as the performance metric. The best-performing mola model indicated a strong, nearly linear negative correlation with sea surface temperature, as well as weaker nonlinear correlations with eddy kinetic energy, chlorophyll-a concentration and rugosity. These findings are consistent with current understanding of ocean sunfish habitat use; for example, previous studies suggest seasonal movement patterns and exploitation of dynamic, highly productive areas characteristic of upwelling regions. Preliminary results from the bluefin models also indicate seasonal fluctuation and correlation with environmental variables. These models can be used with near-real time satellite data as bycatch avoidance tools for both fishers and managers, allowing for the use of more dynamic ocean management strategies to improve sustainability of the fishery.

Oceanographic Determinants of Bycatch Patterns in the California Drift Gillnet Fishery: Building an EBFM Tool for Sustainable Fisheries.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hahlbeck, N.; Scales, K. L.; Hazen, E. L.; Bograd, S. J.

2016-02-01

The reduction of bycatch, or incidental capture of non-target species in a fishery, is a key objective of ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) and critical to the conservation of many threatened marine species. Prediction of bycatch events is therefore of great importance to EBFM efforts. Here, bycatch of the ocean sunfish (Mola mola) and bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) in the California drift gillnet fishery is modeled using a suite of remotely sensed environmental variables as predictors. Data from 8321 gillnet sets was aggregated by month to reduce zero inflation and autocorrelation among sets, and a set of a priori generalized additive models (GAMs) was created for each species based on literature review and preliminary data exploration. Each of the models was fit using a binomial family with a logit link in R, and Aikake's Information Criterion with correction (AICc) was used in the first stage of model selection. K-fold cross validation was used in the second stage of model selection and performance assessment, using the least-squares linear model of predicted vs. observed values as the performance metric. The best-performing mola model indicated a strong, nearly linear negative correlation with sea surface temperature, as well as weaker nonlinear correlations with eddy kinetic energy, chlorophyll-a concentration and rugosity. These findings are consistent with current understanding of ocean sunfish habitat use; for example, previous studies suggest seasonal movement patterns and exploitation of dynamic, highly productive areas characteristic of upwelling regions. Preliminary results from the bluefin models also indicate seasonal fluctuation and correlation with environmental variables. These models can be used with near-real time satellite data as bycatch avoidance tools for both fishers and managers, allowing for the use of more dynamic ocean management strategies to improve sustainability of the fishery.

Harbour porpoise distribution can vary at small spatiotemporal scales in energetic habitats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benjamins, Steven; van Geel, Nienke; Hastie, Gordon; Elliott, Jim; Wilson, Ben

2017-07-01

Marine habitat heterogeneity underpins species distribution and can be generated through interactions between physical and biological drivers at multiple spatiotemporal scales. Passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) is used worldwide to study potential impacts of marine industrial activities on cetaceans, but understanding of animals' site use at small spatiotemporal scales (<1 km, <1 day) remains limited. Small-scale variability in vocalising harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) distribution within two Scottish marine renewable energy development (MRED) sites was investigated by deploying dense arrays of C-POD passive acoustic detectors at a wave energy test site (the European Marine Energy Centre [Billia Croo, Orkney]) and by a minor tidal-stream site (Scarba [Inner Hebrides]). Respective arrays consisted of 7 and 11 moorings containing two C-PODs each and were deployed for up to 55 days. Minimum inter-mooring distances varied between 300-600 m. All C-POD data were analysed at a temporal resolution of whole minutes, with each minute classified as 1 or 0 on the basis of presence/absence of porpoise click trains (Porpoise-Positive Minutes/PPMs). Porpoise detection rates were analysed using Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) with Generalised Estimation Equations (GEEs). Although there were many porpoise detections (wave test site: N=3,432; tidal-stream site: N=17,366), daily detection rates varied significantly within both arrays. Within the wave site array (<1 km diameter), average daily detection rates varied from 4.3 to 14.8 PPMs/day. Within the tidal-stream array (<2 km diameter), average daily detection rates varied from 10.3 to 49.7 PPMs/day. GAM-GEE model results for individual moorings within both arrays indicated linkages between porpoise presence and small-scale heterogeneity among different environmental covariates (e.g., tidal phase, time of day). Porpoise detection rates varied considerably but with coherent patterns between moorings only several hundred metres apart and within hours. These patterns presumably have ecological relevance. These results indicate that, in energetically active and heterogeneous areas, porpoises can display significant spatiotemporal variability in site use at scales of hundreds of metres and hours. Such variability will not be identified when using solitary moored PAM detectors (a common practice for site-based cetacean monitoring), but may be highly relevant for site-based impact assessments of MRED and other coastal developments. PAM arrays encompassing several detectors spread across a site therefore appear to be a more appropriate tool to study site-specific cetacean use of spatiotemporally heterogeneous habitat and assess the potential impacts of coastal and nearshore developments at small scales.

Ergovaline recovery from digested residues of grazed tall fescue seedheads

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ergot alkaloids produced by the endophyte [Neotyphodium coenophialum (Morgan-Jones and Gams) Glenn, Bacon, and Hanlin] of tall fescue [Lolium arundinaceum (Schreb.) Darbysh.] are a common problem faced by livestock producers. While these toxins are often concentrated within the seedheads, there has...

Development of a core Clostridium thermocellum kinetic metabolic model consistent with multiple genetic perturbations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dash, Satyakam; Khodayari, Ali; Zhou, Jilai

Background. Clostridium thermocellum is a Gram-positive anaerobe with the ability to hydrolyze and metabolize cellulose into biofuels such as ethanol, making it an attractive candidate for consolidated bioprocessing (CBP). At present, metabolic engineering in C. thermocellum is hindered due to the incomplete description of its metabolic repertoire and regulation within a predictive metabolic model. Genome-scale metabolic (GSM) models augmented with kinetic models of metabolism have been shown to be effective at recapitulating perturbed metabolic phenotypes. Results. In this effort, we first update a second-generation genome-scale metabolic model (iCth446) for C. thermocellum by correcting cofactor dependencies, restoring elemental and charge balances,more » and updating GAM and NGAM values to improve phenotype predictions. The iCth446 model is next used as a scaffold to develop a core kinetic model (k-ctherm118) of the C. thermocellum central metabolism using the Ensemble Modeling (EM) paradigm. Model parameterization is carried out by simultaneously imposing fermentation yield data in lactate, malate, acetate, and hydrogen production pathways for 19 measured metabolites spanning a library of 19 distinct single and multiple gene knockout mutants along with 18 intracellular metabolite concentration data for a Δgldh mutant and ten experimentally measured Michaelis–Menten kinetic parameters. Conclusions. The k-ctherm118 model captures significant metabolic changes caused by (1) nitrogen limitation leading to increased yields for lactate, pyruvate, and amino acids, and (2) ethanol stress causing an increase in intracellular sugar phosphate concentrations (~1.5-fold) due to upregulation of cofactor pools. Robustness analysis of k-ctherm118 alludes to the presence of a secondary activity of ketol-acid reductoisomerase and possible regulation by valine and/or leucine pool levels. In addition, cross-validation and robustness analysis allude to missing elements in k-ctherm118 and suggest additional experiments to improve kinetic model prediction fidelity. Overall, the study quantitatively assesses the advantages of EM-based kinetic modeling towards improved prediction of C. thermocellum metabolism and develops a predictive kinetic model which can be used to design biofuel-overproducing strains.« less

Development of a core Clostridium thermocellum kinetic metabolic model consistent with multiple genetic perturbations

DOE PAGES

Dash, Satyakam; Khodayari, Ali; Zhou, Jilai; ...

2017-05-02

Background. Clostridium thermocellum is a Gram-positive anaerobe with the ability to hydrolyze and metabolize cellulose into biofuels such as ethanol, making it an attractive candidate for consolidated bioprocessing (CBP). At present, metabolic engineering in C. thermocellum is hindered due to the incomplete description of its metabolic repertoire and regulation within a predictive metabolic model. Genome-scale metabolic (GSM) models augmented with kinetic models of metabolism have been shown to be effective at recapitulating perturbed metabolic phenotypes. Results. In this effort, we first update a second-generation genome-scale metabolic model (iCth446) for C. thermocellum by correcting cofactor dependencies, restoring elemental and charge balances,more » and updating GAM and NGAM values to improve phenotype predictions. The iCth446 model is next used as a scaffold to develop a core kinetic model (k-ctherm118) of the C. thermocellum central metabolism using the Ensemble Modeling (EM) paradigm. Model parameterization is carried out by simultaneously imposing fermentation yield data in lactate, malate, acetate, and hydrogen production pathways for 19 measured metabolites spanning a library of 19 distinct single and multiple gene knockout mutants along with 18 intracellular metabolite concentration data for a Δgldh mutant and ten experimentally measured Michaelis–Menten kinetic parameters. Conclusions. The k-ctherm118 model captures significant metabolic changes caused by (1) nitrogen limitation leading to increased yields for lactate, pyruvate, and amino acids, and (2) ethanol stress causing an increase in intracellular sugar phosphate concentrations (~1.5-fold) due to upregulation of cofactor pools. Robustness analysis of k-ctherm118 alludes to the presence of a secondary activity of ketol-acid reductoisomerase and possible regulation by valine and/or leucine pool levels. In addition, cross-validation and robustness analysis allude to missing elements in k-ctherm118 and suggest additional experiments to improve kinetic model prediction fidelity. Overall, the study quantitatively assesses the advantages of EM-based kinetic modeling towards improved prediction of C. thermocellum metabolism and develops a predictive kinetic model which can be used to design biofuel-overproducing strains.« less

Spatial Evaluation and Modeling of Dengue Seroprevalence and Vector Density in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

PubMed Central

Honório, Nildimar Alves; Nogueira, Rita Maria Ribeiro; Codeço, Cláudia Torres; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Cruz, Oswaldo Gonçalves; de Avelar Figueiredo Mafra Magalhães, Mônica; de Araújo, Josélio Maria Galvão; de Araújo, Eliane Saraiva Machado; Gomes, Marcelo Quintela; Pinheiro, Luciane Silva; da Silva Pinel, Célio; Lourenço-de-Oliveira, Ricardo

2009-01-01

Background Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, experienced a severe dengue fever epidemic in 2008. This was the worst epidemic ever, characterized by a sharp increase in case-fatality rate, mainly among younger individuals. A combination of factors, such as climate, mosquito abundance, buildup of the susceptible population, or viral evolution, could explain the severity of this epidemic. The main objective of this study is to model the spatial patterns of dengue seroprevalence in three neighborhoods with different socioeconomic profiles in Rio de Janeiro. As blood sampling coincided with the peak of dengue transmission, we were also able to identify recent dengue infections and visually relate them to Aedes aegypti spatial distribution abundance. We analyzed individual and spatial factors associated with seroprevalence using Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Methodology/Principal Findings Three neighborhoods were investigated: a central urban neighborhood, and two isolated areas characterized as a slum and a suburban area. Weekly mosquito collections started in September 2006 and continued until March 2008. In each study area, 40 adult traps and 40 egg traps were installed in a random sample of premises, and two infestation indexes calculated: mean adult density and mean egg density. Sera from individuals living in the three neighborhoods were collected before the 2008 epidemic (July through November 2007) and during the epidemic (February through April 2008). Sera were tested for DENV-reactive IgM, IgG, Nested RT-PCR, and Real Time RT-PCR. From the before–after epidemics paired data, we described seroprevalence, recent dengue infections (asymptomatic or not), and seroconversion. Recent dengue infection varied from 1.3% to 14.1% among study areas. The highest IgM seropositivity occurred in the slum, where mosquito abundance was the lowest, but household conditions were the best for promoting contact between hosts and vectors. By fitting spatial GAM we found dengue seroprevalence hotspots located at the entrances of the two isolated communities, which are commercial activity areas with high human movement. No association between recent dengue infection and household's high mosquito abundance was observed in this sample. Conclusions/Significance This study contributes to better understanding the dynamics of dengue in Rio de Janeiro by assessing the relationship between dengue seroprevalence, recent dengue infection, and vector density. In conclusion, the variation in spatial seroprevalence patterns inside the neighborhoods, with significantly higher risk patches close to the areas with large human movement, suggests that humans may be responsible for virus inflow to small neighborhoods in Rio de Janeiro. Surveillance guidelines should be further discussed, considering these findings, particularly the spatial patterns for both human and mosquito populations. PMID:19901983

77 FR 47552 - Event Data Recorders

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-09

... uncertainties in multiple event crashes; Revised certain sensor ranges and accuracies to reflect current state... resolution specification of 5 degrees. In its petition the Alliance stated that steering wheel angle sensors... angle sensors. Both Nissan and GAM submitted comments in support of the Alliance and Honda petitions to...

Ozone in the southeastern United States: An observation-based model using measurements from the SEARCH network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanchard, C. L.; Hidy, G. M.; Tanenbaum, S.

2014-05-01

A generalized additive model (GAM) is used to examine the influence of meteorological factors, nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2), and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMOC) on daily peak 8-h ozone (O3) concentrations. Application to 2002-2011 monitoring data from the Southeastern Aerosol Research and Characterization (SEARCH) program showed sensitivity of peak 8-h O3 to morning concentrations of nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and to afternoon concentrations of NO2 reaction products (NOz). Peak O3 decreased with increasing NO and increased with increasing NO2 concentrations, consistent with reactions involving O3, NO, and NO2. Ozone production efficiency (OPE), estimated from the modeled relation between peak 8-h O3 and afternoon NOz, was ˜40-100 percent higher at rural compared to urban sites. OPE was nonlinear at all sites, decreasing with increasing NOz concentration. The mean ratio of NOz/NOy showed a two-fold increase from urban to rural sites, associated with chemical aging in stagnant air masses from one day (urban sites) to two or more days (non-urban sites). Peak 8-h O3 concentrations in Atlanta were sensitive to concentrations of both non-biogenic NMOC and NOz. Non-urban Yorkville, Georgia, peak 8-h O3 concentrations were sensitive to NOz but not to non-biogenic NMOC concentrations. The results are consistent with expected NMOC and NOx sensitivity in urban and non-urban locales.

Downscaling SMAP Soil Moisture Using Geoinformation Data and Geostatistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Y.; Wang, L.

2017-12-01

Soil moisture is important for agricultural and hydrological studies. However, ground truth soil moisture data for wide area is difficult to achieve. Microwave remote sensing such as Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) can offer a solution for wide coverage. However, existing global soil moisture products only provide observations at coarse spatial resolutions, which often limit their applications in regional agricultural and hydrological studies. This paper therefore aims to generate fine scale soil moisture information and extend soil moisture spatial availability. A statistical downscaling scheme is presented that incorporates multiple fine scale geoinformation data into the downscaling of coarse scale SMAP data in the absence of ground measurement data. Geoinformation data related to soil moisture patterns including digital elevation model (DEM), land surface temperature (LST), land use and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) at a fine scale are used as auxiliary environmental variables for downscaling SMAP data. Generalized additive model (GAM) and regression tree are first conducted to derive statistical relationships between SMAP data and auxiliary geoinformation data at an original coarse scale, and residuals are then downscaled to a finer scale via area-to-point kriging (ATPK) by accounting for the spatial correlation information of the input residuals. The results from standard validation scores as well as the triple collocation (TC) method against soil moisture in-situ measurements show that the downscaling method can significantly improve the spatial details of SMAP soil moisture while maintain the accuracy.

Geographical distribution of protozoan and metazoan parasites of farmed Nile tilapia Oreochromis niloticus (L.) (Perciformes: Cichlidae) in Yucatán, México.

PubMed

Paredes-Trujillo, Amelia; Velázquez-Abunader, Iván; Torres-Irineo, Edgar; Romero, David; Vidal-Martínez, Víctor Manuel

2016-02-03

In Yucatán State, southern México, as in many other parts of the world where tilapia has been introduced for aquaculture, the deficient application of management measures has led to the establishment of non-native parasites. The aims of this study were to describe the geographical distribution of protozoan and helminth parasites of farmed Nile tilapia Oreochromis niloticus (L.) throughout the Yucatán and to examine the potential statistical associations of the prevalence and mean abundance of these parasites with management and environmental variables. All 29 Nile tilapia farms currently operating in Yucatán were surveyed. Maps were created to describe the geographical location of the parasites infecting Nile tilapia at each farm. We evaluated the statistical associations of management and environmental variables with the mean abundance values of each parasite species using a multivariate redundancy analysis (RDA) and generalized additive models (GAM). We also used Ripley's K to determine whether there were significant clusters of the mean abundance of particular parasite species in specific regions of the Yucatán State. A total of 580 O. niloticus were examined, and 11 species of parasites were recorded. Cichlidogyrus sclerosus was the most frequent and abundant parasite at all 29 farms, whereas Gyrodactylus cichlidarum was found in 26 of the 29 farms. The RDA showed that the most important predictors were the concentration of nitrites and ammonium and the water exchange rate. The GAM showed the significant effect of the tank capacity, no use of quarantine area and no use of prophylactic treatments on the mean abundance of G. cichlidarum. The geographical distribution patterns of the mean abundance of most parasite species exhibited clustering near to the coast of Yucatán. Two groups of farms were distinguished: (i) farms with medium to high technology, where the most frequent and abundant parasite was G. cichlidarum, and (ii) farms with low technology, where the most frequent and abundant parasite was C. sclerosus. Good biosecurity practices such as the use of quarantine and prophylactic treatments prior to the introduction of infected Nile tilapia to the farms are recommended to avoid the establishment of parasites such as G. cichlidarum in farms.

Eimeria maxima recombinant Gam82 gametocyte antigen vaccine protects against coccidiosis and augments humoral and cell-mediated immunity

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Intestinal infection with Eimeria, the etiologic agent of avian coccidiosis, stimulates protective immunity to subsequent colonization by the homologous parasite, whilst cross-protection against heterologous species is poor. As a first step toward the development of a broad specificity Eimeria vacci...

Ergovaline stability in tall fescue based on sample handling and storage methods

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ergovaline is an ergot alkaloid produced by the endophyte Neotyphodium coenophialum (Morgan-Jones and Gams) found in tall fescue [Schedonorus arundinacea (Schreb.) Dumort.] and blamed for a multitude of livestock disorders. Ergovaline is known to be unstable and affected by many variables. The objec...

Steer consumption and ergovaline recovery from in vitro digested residues of tall fescue seedheads

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ergot alkaloids produced by the endophyte [Neotyphodium coenophialum (Morgan-Jones and Gams) Glenn, Bacon, and Hanlin] of tall fescue [Lolium arundinaceum (Schreb.) Darbysh.] are a common problem faced by cattle producers. These toxins are concentrated within seedheads of tall fescue tillers, which...

Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph; Takahama, Satoshi

2017-04-01

Emissions of ozone precursors have been regulated in Europe since around 1990 with control measures primarily targeting to industries and traffic. In order to understand how these measures have affected air quality, it is now important to investigate concentrations of tropospheric ozone in different types of environments, based on their NOx burden, and in different geographic regions. In this study, we analyze high quality data sets for Switzerland (NABEL network) and whole Europe (AirBase) for the last 25 years to calculate long-term trends of ozone concentrations. A sophisticated time scale decomposition method, called the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) (Huang,1998;Wu,2009), is used for decomposition of the different time scales of the variation of ozone, namely the long-term trend, seasonal and short-term variability. This allows subtraction of the seasonal pattern of ozone from the observations and estimation of long-term changes of ozone concentrations with lower uncertainty ranges compared to typical methodologies used. We observe that, despite the implementation of regulations, for most of the measurement sites ozone daily mean values have been increasing until around mid-2000s. Afterwards, we observe a decline or a leveling off in the concentrations; certainly a late effect of limitations in ozone precursor emissions. On the other hand, the peak ozone concentrations have been decreasing for almost all regions. The evolution in the trend exhibits some differences between the different types of measurement. In addition, ozone is known to be strongly affected by meteorology. In the applied approach, some of the meteorological effects are already captured by the seasonal signal and already removed in the de-seasonalized ozone time series. For adjustment of the influence of meteorology on the higher frequency ozone variation, a statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAM) (Hastie,1990;Wood,2006), which corrects for meteorological effects, has been developed in order to a) investigate if trends are masked by meteorological variability and b) to understand which part of the observed trends is meteorology driven. By correlating short-term variation of ozone, as obtained from the EEMD, with the corresponding short-term variation of relevant meteorological parameters, we subtract the variation of ozone concentrations that is related to the meteorological effects explained by the GAM. We find that higher frequency meteorological correction reduces further the uncertainty in trend estimation by a small factor. In addition, the seasonal variability of ozone as obtained from the EEMD has been studied in more detail for possible changes in its behavior. A shortening of the seasonal cycle was observed, i.e. reduction of maximum and in-crease of minimum concentration per year, while the occurrence of maximum is shifted to earlier times during a year. In summary, we present a sophisticated and consistent approach for detecting and categorizing trends and meteorological influences on ozone concentrations in long-term measurements across Europe.

The Influence of Physical Factors on Kelp and Sea Urchin Distribution in Previously and Still Grazed Areas in the NE Atlantic

PubMed Central

Rinde, Eli; Christie, Hartvig; Fagerli, Camilla W.; Bekkby, Trine; Gundersen, Hege; Norderhaug, Kjell Magnus; Hjermann, Dag Ø.

2014-01-01

The spatial distribution of kelp (Laminaria hyperborea) and sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis) in the NE Atlantic are highly related to physical factors and to temporal changes in temperature. On a large scale, we identified borders for kelp recovery and sea urchin persistence along the north-south gradient. Sea urchin persistence was also related to the coast-ocean gradient. The southern border corresponds to summer temperatures exceeding about 10°C, a threshold value known to be critical for sea urchin recruitment and development. The outer border along the coast-ocean gradient is related to temperature, wave exposure and salinity. On a finer scale, kelp recovery occurs mainly at ridges in outer, wave exposed, saline and warm areas whereas sea urchins still dominate in inner, shallow and cold areas, particularly in areas with optimal current speed for sea urchin foraging. In contrast to other studies in Europe, we here show a positive influence of climate change to presence of a long-lived climax canopy-forming kelp. The extent of the coast-ocean gradient varies within the study area, and is especially wide in the southern part where the presence of islands and skerries increases the area of the shallow coastal zone. This creates a large area with intermediate physical conditions for the two species and a mosaic of kelp and sea urchin dominated patches. The statistical models (GAM and BRT) show high performance and indicate recovery of kelp in 45–60% of the study area. The study shows the value of combining a traditional (GAM) and a more complex (BRT) modeling approach to gain insight into complex spatial patterns of species or habitats. The results, methods and approaches are of general ecological relevance regardless of ecosystems and species, although they are particularly relevant for understanding and exploring the corresponding changes between algae and grazers in different coastal areas. PMID:24949954

The influence of physical factors on kelp and sea urchin distribution in previously and still grazed areas in the NE Atlantic.

PubMed

Rinde, Eli; Christie, Hartvig; Fagerli, Camilla W; Bekkby, Trine; Gundersen, Hege; Norderhaug, Kjell Magnus; Hjermann, Dag Ø

2014-01-01

The spatial distribution of kelp (Laminaria hyperborea) and sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis) in the NE Atlantic are highly related to physical factors and to temporal changes in temperature. On a large scale, we identified borders for kelp recovery and sea urchin persistence along the north-south gradient. Sea urchin persistence was also related to the coast-ocean gradient. The southern border corresponds to summer temperatures exceeding about 10°C, a threshold value known to be critical for sea urchin recruitment and development. The outer border along the coast-ocean gradient is related to temperature, wave exposure and salinity. On a finer scale, kelp recovery occurs mainly at ridges in outer, wave exposed, saline and warm areas whereas sea urchins still dominate in inner, shallow and cold areas, particularly in areas with optimal current speed for sea urchin foraging. In contrast to other studies in Europe, we here show a positive influence of climate change to presence of a long-lived climax canopy-forming kelp. The extent of the coast-ocean gradient varies within the study area, and is especially wide in the southern part where the presence of islands and skerries increases the area of the shallow coastal zone. This creates a large area with intermediate physical conditions for the two species and a mosaic of kelp and sea urchin dominated patches. The statistical models (GAM and BRT) show high performance and indicate recovery of kelp in 45-60% of the study area. The study shows the value of combining a traditional (GAM) and a more complex (BRT) modeling approach to gain insight into complex spatial patterns of species or habitats. The results, methods and approaches are of general ecological relevance regardless of ecosystems and species, although they are particularly relevant for understanding and exploring the corresponding changes between algae and grazers in different coastal areas.

Comparison of modeling methods to predict the spatial distribution of deep-sea coral and sponge in the Gulf of Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rooper, Christopher N.; Zimmermann, Mark; Prescott, Megan M.

2017-08-01

Deep-sea coral and sponge ecosystems are widespread throughout most of Alaska's marine waters, and are associated with many different species of fishes and invertebrates. These ecosystems are vulnerable to the effects of commercial fishing activities and climate change. We compared four commonly used species distribution models (general linear models, generalized additive models, boosted regression trees and random forest models) and an ensemble model to predict the presence or absence and abundance of six groups of benthic invertebrate taxa in the Gulf of Alaska. All four model types performed adequately on training data for predicting presence and absence, with regression forest models having the best overall performance measured by the area under the receiver-operating-curve (AUC). The models also performed well on the test data for presence and absence with average AUCs ranging from 0.66 to 0.82. For the test data, ensemble models performed the best. For abundance data, there was an obvious demarcation in performance between the two regression-based methods (general linear models and generalized additive models), and the tree-based models. The boosted regression tree and random forest models out-performed the other models by a wide margin on both the training and testing data. However, there was a significant drop-off in performance for all models of invertebrate abundance ( 50%) when moving from the training data to the testing data. Ensemble model performance was between the tree-based and regression-based methods. The maps of predictions from the models for both presence and abundance agreed very well across model types, with an increase in variability in predictions for the abundance data. We conclude that where data conforms well to the modeled distribution (such as the presence-absence data and binomial distribution in this study), the four types of models will provide similar results, although the regression-type models may be more consistent with biological theory. For data with highly zero-inflated distributions and non-normal distributions such as the abundance data from this study, the tree-based methods performed better. Ensemble models that averaged predictions across the four model types, performed better than the GLM or GAM models but slightly poorer than the tree-based methods, suggesting ensemble models might be more robust to overfitting than tree methods, while mitigating some of the disadvantages in predictive performance of regression methods.

A lexicographic weighted Tchebycheff approach for multi-constrained multi-objective optimization of the surface grinding process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalilpourazari, Soheyl; Khalilpourazary, Saman

2017-05-01

In this article a multi-objective mathematical model is developed to minimize total time and cost while maximizing the production rate and surface finish quality in the grinding process. The model aims to determine optimal values of the decision variables considering process constraints. A lexicographic weighted Tchebycheff approach is developed to obtain efficient Pareto-optimal solutions of the problem in both rough and finished conditions. Utilizing a polyhedral branch-and-cut algorithm, the lexicographic weighted Tchebycheff model of the proposed multi-objective model is solved using GAMS software. The Pareto-optimal solutions provide a proper trade-off between conflicting objective functions which helps the decision maker to select the best values for the decision variables. Sensitivity analyses are performed to determine the effect of change in the grain size, grinding ratio, feed rate, labour cost per hour, length of workpiece, wheel diameter and downfeed of grinding parameters on each value of the objective function.

Estimating PM2.5 Concentrations in Xi'an City Using a Generalized Additive Model with Multi-Source Monitoring Data

PubMed Central

Song, Yong-Ze; Yang, Hong-Lei; Peng, Jun-Huan; Song, Yi-Rong; Sun, Qian; Li, Yuan

2015-01-01

Particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm (PM2.5) represents a severe environmental problem and is of negative impact on human health. Xi'an City, with a population of 6.5 million, is among the highest concentrations of PM2.5 in China. In 2013, in total, there were 191 days in Xi’an City on which PM2.5 concentrations were greater than 100 μg/m3. Recently, a few studies have explored the potential causes of high PM2.5 concentration using remote sensing data such as the MODIS aerosol optical thickness (AOT) product. Linear regression is a commonly used method to find statistical relationships among PM2.5 concentrations and other pollutants, including CO, NO2, SO2, and O3, which can be indicative of emission sources. The relationships of these variables, however, are usually complicated and non-linear. Therefore, a generalized additive model (GAM) is used to estimate the statistical relationships between potential variables and PM2.5 concentrations. This model contains linear functions of SO2 and CO, univariate smoothing non-linear functions of NO2, O3, AOT and temperature, and bivariate smoothing non-linear functions of location and wind variables. The model can explain 69.50% of PM2.5 concentrations, with R2 = 0.691, which improves the result of a stepwise linear regression (R2 = 0.582) by 18.73%. The two most significant variables, CO concentration and AOT, represent 20.65% and 19.54% of the deviance, respectively, while the three other gas-phase concentrations, SO2, NO2, and O3 account for 10.88% of the total deviance. These results show that in Xi'an City, the traffic and other industrial emissions are the primary source of PM2.5. Temperature, location, and wind variables also non-linearly related with PM2.5. PMID:26540446

The relation between air pollution and respiratory deaths in Tehran, Iran- using generalized additive models.

PubMed

Dehghan, Azizallah; Khanjani, Narges; Bahrampour, Abbas; Goudarzi, Gholamreza; Yunesian, Masoud

2018-03-20

Some epidemiological evidence has shown a relation between ambient air pollution and adverse health outcomes. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of air pollution on mortality from respiratory diseases in Tehran, Iran. In this ecological study, air pollution data was inquired from the Tehran Province Environmental Protection Agency and the Tehran Air Quality Control Company. Meteorological data was collected from the Tehran Meteorology Organization and mortality data from the Tehran Cemetery Mortality Registration. Generalized Additive Models (GAM) was used for data analysis with different lags, up to 15 days. A 10-unit increase in all pollutants except CO (1-unit) was used to compute the Relative Risk of deaths. During 2005 until 2014, 37,967 respiratory deaths occurred in Tehran in which 21,913 (57.7%) were male. The strongest relationship between NO 2 and PM 10 and respiratory death was seen on the same day (lag 0), and was respectively (RR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02-1.07) and (RR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.02-1.04). O 3 and PM 2.5 had the strongest relationship with respiratory deaths on lag 2 and 1 respectively, and the RR was equal to 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.05 and 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02-1.10 respectively. NO 2 , O 3 , PM 10 and PM 2.5 also showed significant relations with respiratory deaths in the older age groups. The findings of this study showed that O 3 , NO 2 , PM 10 and PM 2.5 air pollutants were related to respiratory deaths in Tehran. Reducing ambient air pollution can save lives in Tehran.

Developing a dengue forecast model using machine learning: A case study in China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Qin; Wang, Li; Xiao, Jianpeng; Zhang, Qingying; Luo, Ganfeng; Li, Zhihao; He, Jianfeng; Zhang, Yonghui; Ma, Wenjun

2017-01-01

Background In China, dengue remains an important public health issue with expanded areas and increased incidence recently. Accurate and timely forecasts of dengue incidence in China are still lacking. We aimed to use the state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms to develop an accurate predictive model of dengue. Methodology/Principal findings Weekly dengue cases, Baidu search queries and climate factors (mean temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) during 2011–2014 in Guangdong were gathered. A dengue search index was constructed for developing the predictive models in combination with climate factors. The observed year and week were also included in the models to control for the long-term trend and seasonality. Several machine learning algorithms, including the support vector regression (SVR) algorithm, step-down linear regression model, gradient boosted regression tree algorithm (GBM), negative binomial regression model (NBM), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) linear regression model and generalized additive model (GAM), were used as candidate models to predict dengue incidence. Performance and goodness of fit of the models were assessed using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and R-squared measures. The residuals of the models were examined using the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation function analyses to check the validity of the models. The models were further validated using dengue surveillance data from five other provinces. The epidemics during the last 12 weeks and the peak of the 2014 large outbreak were accurately forecasted by the SVR model selected by a cross-validation technique. Moreover, the SVR model had the consistently smallest prediction error rates for tracking the dynamics of dengue and forecasting the outbreaks in other areas in China. Conclusion and significance The proposed SVR model achieved a superior performance in comparison with other forecasting techniques assessed in this study. The findings can help the government and community respond early to dengue epidemics. PMID:29036169

Web-Based Quiz-Game-Like Formative Assessment: Development and Evaluation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Tzu-Hua

2008-01-01

This research aims to develop a multiple-choice Web-based quiz-game-like formative assessment system, named GAM-WATA. The unique design of "Ask-Hint Strategy" turns the Web-based formative assessment into an online quiz game. "Ask-Hint Strategy" is composed of "Prune Strategy" and "Call-in Strategy".…

Geographic analysis and monitoring at the United States Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Findley, J.

2003-01-01

The Geographic Analysis and Monitoring (GAM) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey assesses the Nation's land surface at a variety of spatial and temporal scales to understand the rates, causes, and consequences of natural and human-induced processes and their interactions that affect the landscape over time. The program plays an important role in developing National Map tools and application. The GAM is a science and synthesis program that not only assesses the rates of changes to the Earth's land surface, but also provides reports on the status and trends of the Nation's land resources on a periodic basis, produces a land-use and land- cover database for the periodically updated map and data set-the Geographic Face of the Nation, and conducts research leading to improved understanding and knowledge about geographic processes. Scientific investigations provide comprehensive information needed to understand the environmental, resource, and economic consequences of landscape change. These analyses responds to the needs of resource managers and offers the American public baseline information to help them understand the dynamic nature of our national landscape and to anticipate the opportunities and consequences of our actions.

Modeling acute respiratory illness during the 2007 San Diego wildland fires using a coupled emissions-transport system and generalized additive modeling

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A study of the impacts on respiratory health of the 2007 wildland fires in and around San Diego County, California is presented. This study helps to address the impact of fire emissions on human health by modeling the exposure potential of proximate populations to atmospheric particulate matter (PM) from vegetation fires. Currently, there is no standard methodology to model and forecast the potential respiratory health effects of PM plumes from wildland fires, and in part this is due to a lack of methodology for rigorously relating the two. The contribution in this research specifically targets that absence by modeling explicitly the emission, transmission, and distribution of PM following a wildland fire in both space and time. Methods Coupled empirical and deterministic models describing particulate matter (PM) emissions and atmospheric dispersion were linked to spatially explicit syndromic surveillance health data records collected through the San Diego Aberration Detection and Incident Characterization (SDADIC) system using a Generalized Additive Modeling (GAM) statistical approach. Two levels of geographic aggregation were modeled, a county-wide regional level and division of the county into six sub regions. Selected health syndromes within SDADIC from 16 emergency departments within San Diego County relevant for respiratory health were identified for inclusion in the model. Results The model captured the variability in emergency department visits due to several factors by including nine ancillary variables in addition to wildfire PM concentration. The model coefficients and nonlinear function plots indicate that at peak fire PM concentrations the odds of a person seeking emergency care is increased by approximately 50% compared to non-fire conditions (40% for the regional case, 70% for a geographically specific case). The sub-regional analyses show that demographic variables also influence respiratory health outcomes from smoke. Conclusions The model developed in this study allows a quantitative assessment and prediction of respiratory health outcomes as it relates to the location and timing of wildland fire emissions relevant for application to future wildfire scenarios. An important aspect of the resulting model is its generality thus allowing its ready use for geospatial assessments of respiratory health impacts under possible future wildfire conditions in the San Diego region. The coupled statistical and process-based modeling demonstrates an end-to-end methodology for generating reasonable estimates of wildland fire PM concentrations and health effects at resolutions compatible with syndromic surveillance data. PMID:24192051

The Double Burden of Obesity and Malnutrition in a Protracted Emergency Setting: A Cross-Sectional Study of Western Sahara Refugees

PubMed Central

Grijalva-Eternod, Carlos S.; Wells, Jonathan C. K.; Cortina-Borja, Mario; Salse-Ubach, Nuria; Tondeur, Mélody C.; Dolan, Carmen; Meziani, Chafik; Wilkinson, Caroline; Spiegel, Paul; Seal, Andrew J.

2012-01-01

Background Households from vulnerable groups experiencing epidemiological transitions are known to be affected concomitantly by under-nutrition and obesity. Yet, it is unknown to what extent this double burden affects refugee populations dependent on food assistance. We assessed the double burden of malnutrition among Western Sahara refugees living in a protracted emergency. Methods and Findings We implemented a stratified nutrition survey in October–November 2010 in the four Western Sahara refugee camps in Algeria. We sampled 2,005 households, collecting anthropometric measurements (weight, height, and waist circumference) in 1,608 children (6–59 mo) and 1,781 women (15–49 y). We estimated the prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM), stunting, underweight, and overweight in children; and stunting, underweight, overweight, and central obesity in women. To assess the burden of malnutrition within households, households were first classified according to the presence of each type of malnutrition. Households were then classified as undernourished, overweight, or affected by the double burden if they presented members with under-nutrition, overweight, or both, respectively. The prevalence of GAM in children was 9.1%, 29.1% were stunted, 18.6% were underweight, and 2.4% were overweight; among the women, 14.8% were stunted, 53.7% were overweight or obese, and 71.4% had central obesity. Central obesity (47.2%) and overweight (38.8%) in women affected a higher proportion of households than did GAM (7.0%), stunting (19.5%), or underweight (13.3%) in children. Overall, households classified as overweight (31.5%) were most common, followed by undernourished (25.8%), and then double burden–affected (24.7%). Conclusions The double burden of obesity and under-nutrition is highly prevalent in households among Western Sahara refugees. The results highlight the need to focus more attention on non-communicable diseases in this population and balance obesity prevention and management with interventions to tackle under-nutrition. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:23055833

Evolution of a recombinant (gucoamylase-producing) strain of Fusarium venenatum A3/5 in chemostat culture.

PubMed

Wiebe, M G; Robson, G D; Shuster, J; Trinci, A P

2001-04-20

Fusarium venenatum JeRS 325 is a transformant of strain A3/5 which produces Aspergillus niger glucoamylase (GAM) under the control of a Fusarium oxysporum trypsin-like protease promoter. The evolution of JeRS 325 was studied in glucose-limited chemostat cultures grown on NaNO3 or (NH4)2SO4 as the nitrogen source. Thirteen mutants which were more highly branched and four mutants which were more sparsely branched than the parental strain were isolated from the NaNO3 chemostat. The highly branched mutants detected in this chemostat did not displace the sparsely branched population. The mutants isolated from the NaNO3 chemostat complemented representative strains previously isolated from glucose-limited chemostat cultures of F. venenatum A3/5 grown on (NH4)2SO4, but showed little complementation between themselves. By contrast, a highly branched mutant isolated from the (NH4)2SO4 chemostat culture displaced the sparsely branched mycelial population. None of the mutants isolated from the NaNO3 or (NH4)2SO4 chemostats produced as much GAM as JeRS 325. Southern blot analysis showed that all except one mutant had lost copies of both the glucoamylase and the acetamidase (the selectable marker) genes. However, specific GAM production was not necessarily correlated with the extent of glaA gene loss observed. Further, 10 of the mutants had lost the ability to grow on acetamide as the sole nitrogen source, although they retained copies of the amdS gene. In competition studies, mutants which could not utilize acetamide displaced mutants which could. The presence of foreign DNA in JeRS 325 resulted in a reduced specific growth rate (compared to A3/5), but the presence of the foreign DNA did not prevent the evolution of the strain or the isolation of mutants which had improved growth rates. Copyright 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Evaluation of brain perfusion in specific Brodmann areas in Frontotemporal dementia and Alzheimer disease using automated 3-D voxel based analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valotassiou, V.; Papatriantafyllou, J.; Sifakis, N.; Karageorgiou, C.; Tsougos, I.; Tzavara, C.; Zerva, C.; Georgoulias, P.

2009-05-01

Introduction. Brain perfusion studies with single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) have been applied in demented patients to provide better discrimination between frontotemporal dementia (FTD) and Alzheimer's disease (AD). Aim. To assess the perfusion of specific Brodmann (Br) areas of the brain cortex in FTD and AD patients, using NeuroGam processing program to provide 3D voxel-by-voxel cerebral SPECT analysis. Material and methods. We studied 34 consecutive patients. We used the established criteria for the diagnosis of dementia and the specific established criteria for the diagnosis of FTD and AD. All the patients had a neuropsychological evaluation with a battery of tests including the mini-mental state examination (MMSE).Twenty-six patients (16 males, 10 females, mean age 68.76±6.51 years, education 11.81±4.25 years, MMSE 16.69±9.89) received the diagnosis of FTD and 8 patients (all females, mean age 71.25±10.48 years, education 10±4.6 years, MMSE 12.5±3.89) the diagnosis of AD. All the patients underwent a brain SPECT. We applied the NeuroGam Software for the evaluation of brain perfusion in specific Br areas in the left (L) and right (R) hemispheres. Results. Statistically significant hypoperfusion in FTD compared to AD patients, was found in the following Br areas: 11L (p<0.0001), 11R, 20L, 20R, 32L, 38L, 38R, 44L (p<0.001), 32R, 36L, 36R, 45L, 45R, 47R (p<0.01), 9L, 21L, 39R, 44R, 46R, 47L (p<0.05). On the contrary, AD patients presented significant (p<0.05) hypoperfusion in 7R and 39R Br areas. Conclusion. NeuroGam processing program of brain perfusion SPECT could result in enhanced accuracy for the differential diagnosis between AD and FTD patients.

Effects of hydrological regime on development of Carex wet meadows in East Dongting Lake, a Ramsar Wetland for wintering waterbirds

PubMed Central

Jing, Lei; Lu, Cai; Xia, Yan; Shi, Linlu; Zuo, Aojie; Lei, Jialing; Zhang, Hong; Lei, Guangchun; Wen, Li

2017-01-01

Wet meadows are one of the most important ecological components in floodplain, and are among the most dynamic ecosystems. Understanding the development of wet meadows and contributing environmental factors can provide better support for wetland management. Carex meadows in East Dongting Lake National Nature Reserve (EDLNNR) provide vital wintering ground for thousands of migratory waterbirds, and their ecological functions are under threated due to hydrological alternation. We measured wet meadow expansion in EDLNNR from 1989 to 2014, and explored its responses to hydrological and climatic factors within the generalised additive models (GAM) framework. We found an overall expansion of wet meadows over the study period. However, in contrast to many previous studies, our results showed that water level fluctuations at the hydrologic indicator site had only limited impacts on their development. Instead, sampling year, timing of water level recession, and local rainfall exerted significant effects. The effects of sampling year reflected the changes in sedimentation within Dongting Lake; and effects of timing of water withdrawal might be explained by the life history of the dominant sedge species. Our study suggested that the impacts of large scale hydrological alternation on vegetation may operate indirectly through its effects on sediment balance. PMID:28165508

Cluster detection methods applied to the Upper Cape Cod cancer data.

PubMed

Ozonoff, Al; Webster, Thomas; Vieira, Veronica; Weinberg, Janice; Ozonoff, David; Aschengrau, Ann

2005-09-15

A variety of statistical methods have been suggested to assess the degree and/or the location of spatial clustering of disease cases. However, there is relatively little in the literature devoted to comparison and critique of different methods. Most of the available comparative studies rely on simulated data rather than real data sets. We have chosen three methods currently used for examining spatial disease patterns: the M-statistic of Bonetti and Pagano; the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) method as applied by Webster; and Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. We apply these statistics to analyze breast cancer data from the Upper Cape Cancer Incidence Study using three different latency assumptions. The three different latency assumptions produced three different spatial patterns of cases and controls. For 20 year latency, all three methods generally concur. However, for 15 year latency and no latency assumptions, the methods produce different results when testing for global clustering. The comparative analyses of real data sets by different statistical methods provides insight into directions for further research. We suggest a research program designed around examining real data sets to guide focused investigation of relevant features using simulated data, for the purpose of understanding how to interpret statistical methods applied to epidemiological data with a spatial component.

Use of Two-Part Regression Calibration Model to Correct for Measurement Error in Episodically Consumed Foods in a Single-Replicate Study Design: EPIC Case Study

PubMed Central

Agogo, George O.; van der Voet, Hilko; Veer, Pieter van’t; Ferrari, Pietro; Leenders, Max; Muller, David C.; Sánchez-Cantalejo, Emilio; Bamia, Christina; Braaten, Tonje; Knüppel, Sven; Johansson, Ingegerd; van Eeuwijk, Fred A.; Boshuizen, Hendriek

2014-01-01

In epidemiologic studies, measurement error in dietary variables often attenuates association between dietary intake and disease occurrence. To adjust for the attenuation caused by error in dietary intake, regression calibration is commonly used. To apply regression calibration, unbiased reference measurements are required. Short-term reference measurements for foods that are not consumed daily contain excess zeroes that pose challenges in the calibration model. We adapted two-part regression calibration model, initially developed for multiple replicates of reference measurements per individual to a single-replicate setting. We showed how to handle excess zero reference measurements by two-step modeling approach, how to explore heteroscedasticity in the consumed amount with variance-mean graph, how to explore nonlinearity with the generalized additive modeling (GAM) and the empirical logit approaches, and how to select covariates in the calibration model. The performance of two-part calibration model was compared with the one-part counterpart. We used vegetable intake and mortality data from European Prospective Investigation on Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. In the EPIC, reference measurements were taken with 24-hour recalls. For each of the three vegetable subgroups assessed separately, correcting for error with an appropriately specified two-part calibration model resulted in about three fold increase in the strength of association with all-cause mortality, as measured by the log hazard ratio. Further found is that the standard way of including covariates in the calibration model can lead to over fitting the two-part calibration model. Moreover, the extent of adjusting for error is influenced by the number and forms of covariates in the calibration model. For episodically consumed foods, we advise researchers to pay special attention to response distribution, nonlinearity, and covariate inclusion in specifying the calibration model. PMID:25402487

A multi-site analysis of the association between black carbon concentrations and vehicular idling, traffic, background pollution, and meteorology during school dismissals.

PubMed

Richmond-Bryant, J; Bukiewicz, L; Kalin, R; Galarraga, C; Mirer, F

2011-05-01

A study was performed to assess the relationship between black carbon (BC), passing traffic, and vehicular idling outside New York City (NYC) schools during student dismissal. Monitoring was performed at three school sites in East Harlem, the Bronx, and Brooklyn for 1month per year over a two-year period from November 2006-October 2008. Monitoring at each site was conducted before and after the Asthma Free School Zone (AFSZ) asthma reduction education program was administered. Real-time equipment with a one-minute averaging interval was used to obtain the BC data, while volume counts of idling and passing school busses, trucks, and automobiles were collected each minute by study staff. These data were matched to ambient PM(2.5) and meteorology data obtained from the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. A generalized additive model (GAM) model was run to examine the relationship between BC concentration and each variable while accounting for site-to-site differences. F-tests were employed to assess the significance of each of the predictor variables. The model results suggested that variability in ambient PM(2.5) concentration contributed 24% of the variability in transformed BC concentration, while variability in the number of idling busses and trucks on the street during dismissal contributed 20% of the variability in transformed BC concentration. The results of this study suggest that a combination of urban scale and local traffic control approaches in combination with cessation of school bus idling will produce improved local BC concentration outside schools. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Stochastic modeling of sunshine number data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brabec, Marek; Paulescu, Marius; Badescu, Viorel

2013-11-01

In this paper, we will present a unified statistical modeling framework for estimation and forecasting sunshine number (SSN) data. Sunshine number has been proposed earlier to describe sunshine time series in qualitative terms (Theor Appl Climatol 72 (2002) 127-136) and since then, it was shown to be useful not only for theoretical purposes but also for practical considerations, e.g. those related to the development of photovoltaic energy production. Statistical modeling and prediction of SSN as a binary time series has been challenging problem, however. Our statistical model for SSN time series is based on an underlying stochastic process formulation of Markov chain type. We will show how its transition probabilities can be efficiently estimated within logistic regression framework. In fact, our logistic Markovian model can be relatively easily fitted via maximum likelihood approach. This is optimal in many respects and it also enables us to use formalized statistical inference theory to obtain not only the point estimates of transition probabilities and their functions of interest, but also related uncertainties, as well as to test of various hypotheses of practical interest, etc. It is straightforward to deal with non-homogeneous transition probabilities in this framework. Very importantly from both physical and practical points of view, logistic Markov model class allows us to test hypotheses about how SSN dependents on various external covariates (e.g. elevation angle, solar time, etc.) and about details of the dynamic model (order and functional shape of the Markov kernel, etc.). Therefore, using generalized additive model approach (GAM), we can fit and compare models of various complexity which insist on keeping physical interpretation of the statistical model and its parts. After introducing the Markovian model and general approach for identification of its parameters, we will illustrate its use and performance on high resolution SSN data from the Solar Radiation Monitoring Station of the West University of Timisoara.

Stochastic modeling of sunshine number data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brabec, Marek, E-mail: mbrabec@cs.cas.cz; Paulescu, Marius; Badescu, Viorel

2013-11-13

In this paper, we will present a unified statistical modeling framework for estimation and forecasting sunshine number (SSN) data. Sunshine number has been proposed earlier to describe sunshine time series in qualitative terms (Theor Appl Climatol 72 (2002) 127-136) and since then, it was shown to be useful not only for theoretical purposes but also for practical considerations, e.g. those related to the development of photovoltaic energy production. Statistical modeling and prediction of SSN as a binary time series has been challenging problem, however. Our statistical model for SSN time series is based on an underlying stochastic process formulation ofmore » Markov chain type. We will show how its transition probabilities can be efficiently estimated within logistic regression framework. In fact, our logistic Markovian model can be relatively easily fitted via maximum likelihood approach. This is optimal in many respects and it also enables us to use formalized statistical inference theory to obtain not only the point estimates of transition probabilities and their functions of interest, but also related uncertainties, as well as to test of various hypotheses of practical interest, etc. It is straightforward to deal with non-homogeneous transition probabilities in this framework. Very importantly from both physical and practical points of view, logistic Markov model class allows us to test hypotheses about how SSN dependents on various external covariates (e.g. elevation angle, solar time, etc.) and about details of the dynamic model (order and functional shape of the Markov kernel, etc.). Therefore, using generalized additive model approach (GAM), we can fit and compare models of various complexity which insist on keeping physical interpretation of the statistical model and its parts. After introducing the Markovian model and general approach for identification of its parameters, we will illustrate its use and performance on high resolution SSN data from the Solar Radiation Monitoring Station of the West University of Timisoara.« less

Are We Predicting the Actual or Apparent Distribution of Temperate Marine Fishes?

PubMed Central

Monk, Jacquomo; Ierodiaconou, Daniel; Harvey, Euan; Rattray, Alex; Versace, Vincent L.

2012-01-01

Planning for resilience is the focus of many marine conservation programs and initiatives. These efforts aim to inform conservation strategies for marine regions to ensure they have inbuilt capacity to retain biological diversity and ecological function in the face of global environmental change – particularly changes in climate and resource exploitation. In the absence of direct biological and ecological information for many marine species, scientists are increasingly using spatially-explicit, predictive-modeling approaches. Through the improved access to multibeam sonar and underwater video technology these models provide spatial predictions of the most suitable regions for an organism at resolutions previously not possible. However, sensible-looking, well-performing models can provide very different predictions of distribution depending on which occurrence dataset is used. To examine this, we construct species distribution models for nine temperate marine sedentary fishes for a 25.7 km2 study region off the coast of southeastern Australia. We use generalized linear model (GLM), generalized additive model (GAM) and maximum entropy (MAXENT) to build models based on co-located occurrence datasets derived from two underwater video methods (i.e. baited and towed video) and fine-scale multibeam sonar based seafloor habitat variables. Overall, this study found that the choice of modeling approach did not considerably influence the prediction of distributions based on the same occurrence dataset. However, greater dissimilarity between model predictions was observed across the nine fish taxa when the two occurrence datasets were compared (relative to models based on the same dataset). Based on these results it is difficult to draw any general trends in regards to which video method provides more reliable occurrence datasets. Nonetheless, we suggest predictions reflecting the species apparent distribution (i.e. a combination of species distribution and the probability of detecting it). Consequently, we also encourage researchers and marine managers to carefully interpret model predictions. PMID:22536325

A heterogeneous fleet vehicle routing model for solving the LPG distribution problem: A case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onut, S.; Kamber, M. R.; Altay, G.

2014-03-01

Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) is an important management problem in the field of distribution and logistics. In VRPs, routes from a distribution point to geographically distributed points are designed with minimum cost and considering customer demands. All points should be visited only once and by one vehicle in one route. Total demand in one route should not exceed the capacity of the vehicle that assigned to that route. VRPs are varied due to real life constraints related to vehicle types, number of depots, transportation conditions and time periods, etc. Heterogeneous fleet vehicle routing problem is a kind of VRP that vehicles have different capacity and costs. There are two types of vehicles in our problem. In this study, it is used the real world data and obtained from a company that operates in LPG sector in Turkey. An optimization model is established for planning daily routes and assigned vehicles. The model is solved by GAMS and optimal solution is found in a reasonable time.

Characteristics of lead-glass γ-spectrometer radiators irradiated by high energy particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inyakin, A. V.; Kakauridze, D. B.; Lednev, A. A.; Prokoshkin, Yu. D.; Singovsky, A. V.

1983-09-01

Changes in the transparency of lead-glass radiators (F8, TF1 and F101 types), irradiated with 70 GeV protons and 30 GeV π mesons, have been studied. A universal dependence has been derived describing the behaviour of the radiator transparency as well as the characteristics of GAMS-type spectrometers after irradiation.

From pest data to abundance-based risk maps combining eco-physiological knowledge, weather, and habitat variability.

PubMed

Lacasella, Federica; Marta, Silvio; Singh, Aditya; Stack Whitney, Kaitlin; Hamilton, Krista; Townsend, Phil; Kucharik, Christopher J; Meehan, Timothy D; Gratton, Claudio

2017-03-01

Noxious species, i.e., crop pest or invasive alien species, are major threats to both natural and managed ecosystems. Invasive pests are of special importance, and knowledge about their distribution and abundance is fundamental to minimize economic losses and prioritize management activities. Occurrence models are a common tool used to identify suitable zones and map priority areas (i.e., risk maps) for noxious species management, although they provide a simplified description of species dynamics (i.e., no indication on species density). An alternative is to use abundance models, but translating abundance data into risk maps is often challenging. Here, we describe a general framework for generating abundance-based risk maps using multi-year pest data. We used an extensive data set of 3968 records collected between 2003 and 2013 in Wisconsin during annual surveys of soybean aphid (SBA), an exotic invasive pest in this region. By using an integrative approach, we modelled SBA responses to weather, seasonal, and habitat variability using generalized additive models (GAMs). Our models showed good to excellent performance in predicting SBA occurrence and abundance (TSS = 0.70, AUC = 0.92; R 2  = 0.63). We found that temperature, precipitation, and growing degree days were the main drivers of SBA trends. In addition, a significant positive relationship between SBA abundance and the availability of overwintering habitats was observed. Our models showed aphid populations were also sensitive to thresholds associated with high and low temperatures, likely related to physiological tolerances of the insects. Finally, the resulting aphid predictions were integrated using a spatial prioritization algorithm ("Zonation") to produce an abundance-based risk map for the state of Wisconsin that emphasized the spatiotemporal consistency and magnitude of past infestation patterns. This abundance-based risk map can provide information on potential foci of pest outbreaks where scouting efforts and prophylactic measures should be concentrated. The approach we took is general, relatively simple, and can be applied to other species, habitats and geographical areas for which species abundance data and biotic and abiotic data are available. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Long-term fluctuations in circalunar Beach aggregations of the box jellyfish Alatina moseri in Hawaii, with links to environmental variability.

PubMed

Chiaverano, Luciano M; Holland, Brenden S; Crow, Gerald L; Blair, Landy; Yanagihara, Angel A

2013-01-01

The box jellyfish Alatina moseri forms monthly aggregations at Waikiki Beach 8-12 days after each full moon, posing a recurrent hazard to swimmers due to painful stings. We present an analysis of long-term (14 years: Jan 1998- Dec 2011) changes in box jellyfish abundance at Waikiki Beach. We tested the relationship of beach counts to climate and biogeochemical variables over time in the North Pacific Sub-tropical Gyre (NPSG). Generalized Additive Models (GAM), Change-Point Analysis (CPA), and General Regression Models (GRM) were used to characterize patterns in box jellyfish arrival at Waikiki Beach 8-12 days following 173 consecutive full moons. Variation in box jellyfish abundance lacked seasonality, but exhibited dramatic differences among months and among years, and followed an oscillating pattern with significant periods of increase (1998-2001; 2006-2011) and decrease (2001-2006). Of three climatic and 12 biogeochemical variables examined, box jellyfish showed a strong, positive relationship with primary production, >2 mm zooplankton biomass, and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index. It is clear that that the moon cycle plays a key role in synchronizing timing of the arrival of Alatina moseri medusae to shore. We propose that bottom-up processes, likely initiated by inter-annual regional climatic fluctuations influence primary production, secondary production, and ultimately regulate food availability, and are therefore important in controlling the inter-annual changes in box jellyfish abundance observed at Waikiki Beach.

Revisiting Peruvian anchovy ( Engraulis ringens) trophodynamics provides a new vision of the Humboldt Current system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espinoza, Pepe; Bertrand, Arnaud

2008-10-01

The Peruvian anchovy or anchoveta ( Engraulis ringens) forages on plankton and is a main prey for marine mammals, seabirds, fish, and fishers, and is therefore a key element of the food web in the Humboldt Current system (HCS). Here, we present results from the analysis of 21,203 anchoveta stomach contents sampled during 23 acoustic surveys over the period 1996-2003. Prey items were identified to the genus level, and the relative dietary importance of different prey was assessed by determination of their carbon content. Variability in stomach fullness was examined relative to the diel cycle, the distance from the coast, sea surface temperature, and latitude, using generalized additive models (GAMs). Whereas phytoplankton largely dominated anchoveta diets in terms of numerical abundance and comprised >99% of ingested prey items, the carbon content of prey items indicated that zooplankton was by far the most important dietary component, with euphausiids contributing 67.5% of dietary carbon followed by copepods (26.3%). Stomach fullness data showed that anchoveta feed mainly during daytime between 07h00 and 18h00, although night-time feeding also made a substantial contribution to total food consumption. Stomach fullness also varied with latitude, distance from the coast, and temperature, but with substantial variability indicating a high degree of plasticity in anchoveta feeding behaviour. The results suggest an ecological role for anchoveta that challenges current understanding of its position in the foodweb, the functioning of the HCS, and trophic models of the HCS.

Long-Term Fluctuations in Circalunar Beach Aggregations of the Box Jellyfish Alatina moseri in Hawaii, with Links to Environmental Variability

PubMed Central

Chiaverano, Luciano M.; Holland, Brenden S.; Crow, Gerald L.; Blair, Landy; Yanagihara, Angel A.

2013-01-01

The box jellyfish Alatina moseri forms monthly aggregations at Waikiki Beach 8–12 days after each full moon, posing a recurrent hazard to swimmers due to painful stings. We present an analysis of long-term (14 years: Jan 1998– Dec 2011) changes in box jellyfish abundance at Waikiki Beach. We tested the relationship of beach counts to climate and biogeochemical variables over time in the North Pacific Sub-tropical Gyre (NPSG). Generalized Additive Models (GAM), Change-Point Analysis (CPA), and General Regression Models (GRM) were used to characterize patterns in box jellyfish arrival at Waikiki Beach 8–12 days following 173 consecutive full moons. Variation in box jellyfish abundance lacked seasonality, but exhibited dramatic differences among months and among years, and followed an oscillating pattern with significant periods of increase (1998–2001; 2006–2011) and decrease (2001–2006). Of three climatic and 12 biogeochemical variables examined, box jellyfish showed a strong, positive relationship with primary production, >2 mm zooplankton biomass, and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index. It is clear that that the moon cycle plays a key role in synchronizing timing of the arrival of Alatina moseri medusae to shore. We propose that bottom-up processes, likely initiated by inter-annual regional climatic fluctuations influence primary production, secondary production, and ultimately regulate food availability, and are therefore important in controlling the inter-annual changes in box jellyfish abundance observed at Waikiki Beach. PMID:24194856

Spatial pattern and heterogeneity of soil moisture along a transect in a small catchment on the Loess Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yang; Dou, Yanxing; Liu, Dong; An, Shaoshan

2017-07-01

Spatial pattern and heterogeneity of soil moisture is important for the hydrological process on the Loess Plateau. This study combined the classical and geospatial statistical techniques to examine the spatial pattern and heterogeneity of soil moisture along a transect scale (e.g. land use types and topographical attributes) on the Loess Plateau. The average values of soil moisture were on the order of farmland > orchard > grassland > abandoned land > shrubland > forestland. Vertical distribution characteristics of soil moisture (0-500 cm) were similar among land use types. Highly significant (p < 0.01) negative correlations were found between soil moisture and elevation (h) except for shrubland (p > 0.05), whereas no significant correlations were found between soil moisture and plan curvature (Kh), stream power index (SPI), compound topographic index (CTI) (p > 0.05), indicating that topographical attributes (mainly h) have a negative effect on the soil moisture spatial heterogeneity. Besides, soil moisture spatial heterogeneity decreased from forestland to grassland and farmland, accompanied by a decline from 15° to 1° alongside upper to lower slope position. This study highlights the importance of land use types and topographical attributes on the soil moisture spatial heterogeneity from a combined analysis of the structural equation model (SEM) and generalized additive models (GAMs), and the relative contribution of land use types to the soil moisture spatial heterogeneity was higher than that of topographical attributes, which provides insights for researches focusing on soil moisture varitions on the Loess Plateau.

Aquifer development planning to supply a seaside resort: a case study in Goa, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lobo Ferreira, J. P. Cárcomo; da Conceição Cunha, Maria; Chachadi, A. G.; Nagel, Kai; Diamantino, Catarina; Oliveira, Manuel Mendes

2007-09-01

Using the hydrogeological and socio-economic data derived from a European Commission research project on the measurement, monitoring and sustainability of the coastal environment, two optimization models have been applied to satisfy the future water resources needs of the coastal zone of Bardez in Goa, India. The number of tourists visiting Goa since the 1970s has risen considerably, and roughly a third of them go to Bardez taluka, prompting growth in the tourist-related infrastructure in the region. The optimization models are non-linear mixed integer models that have been solved using GAMS/DICOPT++ commercial software. Optimization models were used, firstly, to indicate the most suitable zones for building seaside resorts and wells to supply the tourist industry with an adequate amount of water, and secondly, to indicate the best location for wells to adequately supply pre-existing hotels. The models presented will help to define the optimal locations for the wells and the hydraulic infrastructures needed to satisfy demand at minimum cost, taking into account environmental constraints such as the risk of saline intrusion.

Estimating Regional Spatial and Temporal Variability of PM2.5 Concentrations Using Satellite Data, Meteorology, and Land Use Information

PubMed Central

Liu, Yang; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Koutrakis, Petros

2009-01-01

Background Studies of chronic health effects due to exposures to particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5) are often limited by sparse measurements. Satellite aerosol remote sensing data may be used to extend PM2.5 ground networks to cover a much larger area. Objectives In this study we examined the benefits of using aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieved by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) in conjunction with land use and meteorologic information to estimate ground-level PM2.5 concentrations. Methods We developed a two-stage generalized additive model (GAM) for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency PM2.5 concentrations in a domain centered in Massachusetts. The AOD model represents conditions when AOD retrieval is successful; the non-AOD model represents conditions when AOD is missing in the domain. Results The AOD model has a higher predicting power judged by adjusted R2 (0.79) than does the non-AOD model (0.48). The predicted PM2.5 concentrations by the AOD model are, on average, 0.8–0.9 μg/m3 higher than the non-AOD model predictions, with a more smooth spatial distribution, higher concentrations in rural areas, and the highest concentrations in areas other than major urban centers. Although AOD is a highly significant predictor of PM2.5, meteorologic parameters are major contributors to the better performance of the AOD model. Conclusions GOES aerosol/smoke product (GASP) AOD is able to summarize a set of weather and land use conditions that stratify PM2.5 concentrations into two different spatial patterns. Even if land use regression models do not include AOD as a predictor variable, two separate models should be fitted to account for different PM2.5 spatial patterns related to AOD availability. PMID:19590678

Quantifying Structural and Compositional Changes in Forest Cover in NW Yunnan, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakkenberg, C.

2012-12-01

NW Yunnan, China is a region renowned for high levels of biodiversity, endemism and genetically distinct refugial plant populations. It is also a focal area for China's national reforestation efforts like the Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP), intended to control erosion in the Upper Yangtze watershed. As part of a larger project to investigate the role of reforestation programs in facilitating the emergence of increasingly species-rich forest communities on a previously degraded and depauperate land mosaic in montane SW China, this study uses a series of Landsat TM images to quantify the spatial pattern and rate of structural and compositional change in forests recovering from medium to large-scale disturbances in the area over the past 25 years. Beyond the fundamental need to assess the outcomes of one of the world's largest reforestation programs, this research offers approaches to confronting two critical methodological issues: (1) techniques for characterizing subtle changes in the nature of vegetation cover, and (2) reducing change detection uncertainty due to persistent cloud cover and shadow. To address difficulties in accurately assessing the structure and composition of vegetative regrowth, a biophysical model was parameterized with over 300 ground-truthed canopy cover assessment points to determine pattern and rate of long-term vegetation changes. To combat pervasive shadow and cloud cover, an interactive generalized additive model (GAM) model based on topographic and spatial predictors was used to overcome some of the constraints of satellite image analysis in Himalayan regions characterized by extreme topography and extensive cloud cover during the summer monsoon. The change detection is assessed for accuracy using ground-truthed observations in a variety of forest cover types and topographic positions. Results indicate effectiveness in reducing the areal extent of unclassified regions and increasing total change detection accuracy. In addition to quantifying forest cover change in this section of NW Yunnan, the analysis attempts to qualify that change - distinguishing among distinct disturbance histories and post-recovery successional pathways.

Climate change and the emergence of vector-borne diseases in Europe: case study of dengue fever.

PubMed

Bouzid, Maha; Colón-González, Felipe J; Lung, Tobias; Lake, Iain R; Hunter, Paul R

2014-08-22

Dengue fever is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease worldwide. Dengue transmission is critically dependent on climatic factors and there is much concern as to whether climate change would spread the disease to areas currently unaffected. The occurrence of autochthonous infections in Croatia and France in 2010 has raised concerns about a potential re-emergence of dengue in Europe. The objective of this study is to estimate dengue risk in Europe under climate change scenarios. We used a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to estimate dengue fever risk as a function of climatic variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity) and socioeconomic factors (population density, urbanisation, GDP per capita and population size), under contemporary conditions (1985-2007) in Mexico. We then used our model estimates to project dengue incidence under baseline conditions (1961-1990) and three climate change scenarios: short-term 2011-2040, medium-term 2041-2070 and long-term 2071-2100 across Europe. The model was used to calculate average number of yearly dengue cases at a spatial resolution of 10 × 10 km grid covering all land surface of the currently 27 EU member states. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to model dengue fever risk in Europe in terms of disease occurrence rather than mosquito presence. The results were presented using Geographical Information System (GIS) and allowed identification of areas at high risk. Dengue fever hot spots were clustered around the coastal areas of the Mediterranean and Adriatic seas and the Po Valley in northern Italy. This risk assessment study is likely to be a valuable tool assisting effective and targeted adaptation responses to reduce the likely increased burden of dengue fever in a warmer world.

Optimal location of emergency stations in underground mine networks using a multiobjective mathematical model.

PubMed

Lotfian, Reza; Najafi, Mehdi

2018-02-26

Background Every year, many mining accidents occur in underground mines all over the world resulting in the death and maiming of many miners and heavy financial losses to mining companies. Underground mining accounts for an increasing share of these events due to their special circumstances and the risks of working therein. Thus, the optimal location of emergency stations within the network of an underground mine in order to provide medical first aid and transport injured people at the right time, plays an essential role in reducing deaths and disabilities caused by accidents Objective The main objective of this study is to determine the location of emergency stations (ES) within the network of an underground coal mine in order to minimize the outreach time for the injured. Methods A three-objective mathematical model is presented for placement of ES facility location selection and allocation of facilities to the injured in various stopes. Results Taking into account the radius of influence for each ES, the proposed model is capable to reduce the maximum time for provision of emergency services in the event of accident for each stope. In addition, the coverage or lack of coverage of each stope by any of the emergency facility is determined by means of Floyd-Warshall algorithm and graph. To solve the problem, a global criterion method using GAMS software is used to evaluate the accuracy and efficiency of the model. Conclusions 7 locations were selected from among 46 candidates for the establishment of emergency facilities in Tabas underground coal mine. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Distribution and relative abundance of humpback whales in relation to environmental variables in coastal British Columbia and adjacent waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalla Rosa, Luciano; Ford, John K. B.; Trites, Andrew W.

2012-03-01

Humpback whales are common in feeding areas off British Columbia (BC) from spring to fall, and are widely distributed along the coast. Climate change and the increase in population size of North Pacific humpback whales may lead to increased anthropogenic impact and require a better understanding of species-habitat relationships. We investigated the distribution and relative abundance of humpback whales in relation to environmental variables and processes in BC waters using GIS and generalized additive models (GAMs). Six non-systematic cetacean surveys were conducted between 2004 and 2006. Whale encounter rates and environmental variables (oceanographic and remote sensing data) were recorded along transects divided into 4 km segments. A combined 3-year model and individual year models (two surveys each) were fitted with the mgcv R package. Model selection was based primarily on GCV scores. The explained deviance of our models ranged from 39% for the 3-year model to 76% for the 2004 model. Humpback whales were strongly associated with latitude and bathymetric features, including depth, slope and distance to the 100-m isobath. Distance to sea-surface-temperature fronts and salinity (climatology) were also constantly selected by the models. The shapes of smooth functions estimated for variables based on chlorophyll concentration or net primary productivity with different temporal resolutions and time lags were not consistent, even though higher numbers of whales seemed to be associated with higher primary productivity for some models. These and other selected explanatory variables may reflect areas of higher biological productivity that favor top predators. Our study confirms the presence of at least three important regions for humpback whales along the BC coast: south Dixon Entrance, middle and southwestern Hecate Strait and the area between La Perouse Bank and the southern edge of Juan de Fuca Canyon.

Analysis of the geodetic residuals as differences between geodetic and sum of the atmospheric and ocean excitation of polar motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolaczek, B.; Pasnicka, M.; Nastula, J.

2012-12-01

Up to now studies of geophysical excitation of polar motion containing AAM (Atmospheric Angular Momentum), OAM (Oceanic Angular Momentum) and HAM (Hydrological Angular Momentum) excitation functions of polar motion have not achieved the total agreement between geophysical and determined geodetic excitation (GAM, Geodetic AngularMomentum) functions of polar motion...

EP-DRAFT-1.1 2014-01-19 OSI-GAM-SOP-00x In Situ High-resolution Gamma Spectroscopy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wimer, N. G.; Kreek, S. A.

2014-01-27

The standard operating procedure is described for in situ high-resolution gamma spectroscopy, including operational readiness, planning, preparation, conduct, and reporting. Data analysis of in situ gamma spectrum files will be performed together with those of other gamma assay methods by a dedicated Data Analysis process, documented in companion OSI procedures.

[The use of interviews in participative intervention and research: the GAM tool as a collective interview].

PubMed

Sade, Christian; de Barros, Leticia Maria Renault; Melo, Jorge José Maciel; Passos, Eduardo

2013-10-01

This paper seeks to assess a way of conducting interviews in line with the ideology of Brazilian Psychiatric Reform. In the methodology of participative intervention and research in mental health, the interview is less a data collection than a data harvesting procedure. It is designed to apply the principles of psychosocial care, autonomy as the basis for treatment, the predominance of the users and of their social networks and civic participation. Inspired by the Explicitation Interview technique, the contention is that the handling of the interview presupposes an open attitude able to promote and embrace different viewpoints. This attitude makes the interview a collective experience of sharing and belonging, allowing participants to reposition themselves subjectively in treatment with the emergence of groupality. As an example of using the interview as a methodological tool in mental health research, we examine research into adaptation of the tool of Autonomous Medication Management (GAM). It is an interventionist approach guided by principles that foster autonomy and the protagonist status of users of psychotropic medication, their quality of life, their rights and recognition of the multiple significances of medication, understood here as a collective interview technique.

Radiation sensitivity and EPR dosimetric potential of gallic acid and its esters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuner, Hasan; Oktay Bal, M.; Polat, Mustafa

2015-02-01

In the preset work the radiation sensitivities of Gallic Acid anhydrous and monohydrate, Octyl, Lauryl, and Ethyl Gallate (GA, GAm, OG, LG, and EG) were investigated in the intermediate (0.5-20 kGy) and low radiation (<10 Gy) dose range using Electron Paramagnetic Resonance (EPR) spectroscopy. While OG, LG, and EG are presented a singlet EPR spectra, their radiation sensitivity found to be very different in the intermediate dose range. At low radiation dose range (<10 Gy) only LG is found to be present a signal that easily distinguished from the noise signals. The intermediate and low dose range radiation sensitivities are compared using well known EPR dosimeter alanine. The radiation yields (G) of the interested material were found to be 1.34×10-2, 1.48×10-2, 4.14×10-2, and 6.03×10-2, 9.44×10-2 for EG, GA, GAm, OG, and LG, respectively at the intermediate dose range. It is found that the simple EPR spectra and the noticeable EPR signal of LG make it a promising dosimetric material to be used below 10 Gy of radiation dose.

Radial transfer effects for poloidal rotation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallatschek, Klaus

2010-11-01

Radial transfer of energy or momentum is the principal agent responsible for radial structures of Geodesic Acoustic Modes (GAMs) or stationary Zonal Flows (ZF) generated by the turbulence. For the GAM, following a physical approach, it is possible to find useful expressions for the individual components of the Poynting flux or radial group velocity allowing predictions where a mathematical full analysis is unfeasible. Striking differences between up-down symmetric flux surfaces and asymmetric ones have been found. For divertor geometries, e.g., the direction of the propagation depends on the sign of the ion grad-B drift with respect to the X-point, reminiscent of a sensitive determinant of the H-mode threshold. In nonlocal turbulence computations it becomes obvious that the linear energy transfer terms can be completely overwhelmed by the action of the turbulence. In contrast, stationary ZFs are governed by the turbulent radial transfer of momentum. For sufficiently large systems, the Reynolds stress becomes a deterministic functional of the flows, which can be empirically determined from the stress response in computational turbulence studies. The functional allows predictions even on flow/turbulence states not readily obtainable from small amplitude noise, such as certain transport bifurcations or meta-stable states.

Optimizing Department of Defense Acquisition Development Test and Evaluation Scheduling

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

CPM Critical Path Method DOD Department of Defense DT&E development test and evaluation EMD engineering and manufacturing development GAMS...these, including the Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT), the Critical Path Method ( CPM ), and the resource- constrained project-scheduling...problem (RCPSP). These are of particular interest to this thesis as the current scheduling method uses elements of the PERT/ CPM , and the test

Impact of communities, health, and emotional-related factors on smoking use: comparison of joint modeling of mean and dispersion and Bayes' hierarchical models on add health survey.

PubMed

Pu, Jie; Fang, Di; Wilson, Jeffrey R

2017-02-03

The analysis of correlated binary data is commonly addressed through the use of conditional models with random effects included in the systematic component as opposed to generalized estimating equations (GEE) models that addressed the random component. Since the joint distribution of the observations is usually unknown, the conditional distribution is a natural approach. Our objective was to compare the fit of different binary models for correlated data in Tabaco use. We advocate that the joint modeling of the mean and dispersion may be at times just as adequate. We assessed the ability of these models to account for the intraclass correlation. In so doing, we concentrated on fitting logistic regression models to address smoking behaviors. Frequentist and Bayes' hierarchical models were used to predict conditional probabilities, and the joint modeling (GLM and GAM) models were used to predict marginal probabilities. These models were fitted to National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) data for Tabaco use. We found that people were less likely to smoke if they had higher income, high school or higher education and religious. Individuals were more likely to smoke if they had abused drug or alcohol, spent more time on TV and video games, and been arrested. Moreover, individuals who drank alcohol early in life were more likely to be a regular smoker. Children who experienced mistreatment from their parents were more likely to use Tabaco regularly. The joint modeling of the mean and dispersion models offered a flexible and meaningful method of addressing the intraclass correlation. They do not require one to identify random effects nor distinguish from one level of the hierarchy to the other. Moreover, once one can identify the significant random effects, one can obtain similar results to the random coefficient models. We found that the set of marginal models accounting for extravariation through the additional dispersion submodel produced similar results with regards to inferences and predictions. Moreover, both marginal and conditional models demonstrated similar predictive power.

Spatial transferability of habitat suitability models of Nephrops norvegicus among fished areas in the Northeast Atlantic: sufficiently stable for marine resource conservation?

PubMed

Lauria, Valentina; Power, Anne Marie; Lordan, Colm; Weetman, Adrian; Johnson, Mark P

2015-01-01

Knowledge of the spatial distribution and habitat associations of species in relation to the environment is essential for their management and conservation. Habitat suitability models are useful in quantifying species-environment relationships and predicting species distribution patterns. Little is known, however, about the stability and performance of habitat suitability models when projected into new areas (spatial transferability) and how this can inform resource management. The aims of this study were to model habitat suitability of Norway lobster (Nephrops norvegicus) in five fished areas of the Northeast Atlantic (Aran ground, Irish Sea, Celtic Sea, Scotland Inshore and Fladen ground), and to test for spatial transferability of habitat models among multiple regions. Nephrops burrow density was modelled using generalised additive models (GAMs) with predictors selected from four environmental variables (depth, slope, sediment and rugosity). Models were evaluated and tested for spatial transferability among areas. The optimum models (lowest AICc) for different areas always included depth and sediment as predictors. Burrow densities were generally greater at depth and in finer sediments, but relationships for individual areas were sometimes more complex. Aside from an inclusion of depth and sediment, the optimum models differed between fished areas. When it came to tests of spatial transferability, however, most of the models were able to predict Nephrops density in other areas. Furthermore, transferability was not dependent on use of the optimum models since competing models were also able to achieve a similar level of transferability to new areas. A degree of decoupling between model 'fitting' performance and spatial transferability supports the use of simpler models when extrapolating habitat suitability maps to different areas. Differences in the form and performance of models from different areas may supply further information on the processes shaping species' distributions. Spatial transferability of habitat models can be used to support fishery management when the information is scarce but caution needs to be applied when making inference and a multi-area transferability analysis is preferable to bilateral comparisons between areas.

The Burden of COPD Morbidity Attributable to the Interaction between Ambient Air Pollution and Temperature in Chengdu, China.

PubMed

Qiu, Hang; Tan, Kun; Long, Feiyu; Wang, Liya; Yu, Haiyan; Deng, Ren; Long, Hu; Zhang, Yanlong; Pan, Jingping

2018-03-11

Evidence on the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) morbidity attributable to the interaction between ambient air pollution and temperature has been limited. This study aimed to examine the modification effect of temperature on the association of ambient air pollutants (including particulate matter (PM) with aerodynamic diameter <10 μm (PM 10 ) and <2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O₃)) with risk of hospital admissions (HAs) for COPD, as well as the associated morbidity burden in urban areas of Chengdu, China, from 2015 to 2016. Based on the generalized additive model (GAM) with quasi-Poisson link, bivariate response surface model and stratification parametric model were developed to investigate the potential interactions between ambient air pollution and temperature on COPD HAs. We found consistent interactions between ambient air pollutants (PM 2.5 , PM 10 and SO₂) and low temperature on COPD HAs, demonstrated by the stronger associations between ambient air pollutants and COPD HAs at low temperatures than at moderate temperatures. Subgroup analyses showed that the elderly (≥80 years) and males were more vulnerable to this interaction. The joint effect of PM and low temperature had the greatest impact on COPD morbidity burden. Using WHO air quality guidelines as reference concentration, about 17.30% (95% CI: 12.39%, 22.19%) and 14.72% (95% CI: 10.38%, 19.06%) of COPD HAs were attributable to PM 2.5 and PM 10 exposures on low temperature days, respectively. Our findings suggested that low temperature significantly enhanced the effects of PM and SO₂ on COPD HAs in urban Chengdu, resulting in increased morbidity burden. This evidence has important implications for developing interventions to reduce the risk effect of COPD morbidity.

Waterscape determinants of net mercury methylation in a tropical wetland.

PubMed

Lázaro, Wilkinson L; Díez, Sergi; da Silva, Carolina J; Ignácio, Áurea R A; Guimarães, Jean R D

2016-10-01

The periphyton associated with freshwater macrophyte roots is the main site of Hg methylation in different wetland environments in the world. The aim of this study was to test the use of connectivity metrics of water bodies, in the context of patches, in a tropical waterscape wetland (Guapore River, Amazonia, Brazil) as a predictor of potential net methylmercury (MeHg) production by periphyton communities. We sampled 15 lakes with different patterns of lateral connectivity with the main river channel, performing net mercury methylation potential tests in incubations with local water and Eichhornia crassipes root-periphyton samples, using (203)HgCl2 as a tracer. Physico-chemical variables, landscape data (morphological characteristics, land use, and lateral connection type of water bodies) using GIS resources and field data were analyzed with Generalized Additive Models (GAM). The net Me(203)Hg production (as % of total added (203)Hg) was expressive (6.2-25.6%) showing that periphyton is an important matrix in MeHg production. The model that best explained the variation in the net Me(203)Hg production (76%) was built by the variables: connection type, total phosphorus and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in water (AICc=48.324, p=0.001). Connection type factor was the best factor to model fit (r(2)=0.32; p=0.008) and temporarily connected lakes had higher rates of net mercury methylation. Both DOC and total phosphorus showed positive significant covariation with the net methylation rates (r(2)=0.26; p=0.008 and r(2)=0.21; p=0.012 respectively). Our study suggests a strong relationship between rates of net MeHg production in this tropical area and the type of water body and its hydrological connectivity within the waterscape. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dependence of RNA:DNA ratios and Fulton’s K condition indices on environmental characteristics of plaice and dab nursery grounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Raedemaecker, F.; Brophy, D.; O'Connor, I.; O'Neill, B.

2012-02-01

This field study showed a lack of a correlation between a morphometric (Fulton's K) and biochemical (RNA:DNA ratio) condition index in juvenile plaice ( Pleuronectes platessa) and dab ( Limanda limanda) studied to assess habitat quality in four sandy beach nursery grounds in Galway Bay, Ireland. Based on monthly surveys from June to September in 2008 and 2009, fish growth, indicated by RNA:DNA ratios and Fulton's K, displayed considerable spatio-temporal variability. Site-related patterns in Fulton's K for plaice and dab were consistent between years whereas RNA:DNA ratios displayed annual and interspecific variability among nursery habitats. This indicates a higher sensitivity of RNA:DNA ratios to short-term environmental fluctuations which is not apparent in Fulton's K measurements of juvenile flatfish. Generalized Additive Modelling (GAM) revealed non-linear relationships between the condition indices and (biotic and abiotic) habitat characteristics as well as diet features, derived from gut content analyses. Density of predators, sediment grain size and salinity were the most important predictors of both condition indices. Temperature also affected condition indices in dab whereas plaice condition indices varied with depth. Diet features did not contribute to the explained variability in the models predicting RNA:DNA ratios whereas certain prey groups significantly improved the explained variability in the models predicting Fulton's K of plaice and dab. The value of both indices for assessing fish condition and habitat quality in field studies is discussed. These findings aid understanding of the biological and physical mechanisms promoting fast growth and high survival which will help to identify high quality nursery areas for juvenile plaice and dab.

How does the emotive content of televised anti-smoking mass media campaigns influence monthly calls to the NHS Stop Smoking helpline in England?

PubMed

Richardson, Sol; Langley, Tessa; Szatkowski, Lisa; Sims, Michelle; Gilmore, Anna; McNeill, Ann; Lewis, Sarah

2014-12-01

To investigate the effects of different types of televised mass media campaign content on calls to the English NHS Stop Smoking helpline. We used UK government-funded televised tobacco control campaigns from April 2005 to April 2010, categorised as either "positive" (eliciting happiness, satisfaction or hope) or "negative" (eliciting fear, guilt or disgust). We built negative binomial generalised additive models (GAMs) with linear and smooth terms for monthly per capita exposure to each campaign type (expressed as Gross Ratings Points, or GRPs) to determine their effect on calls in the same month. We adjusted for seasonal trends, inflation-adjusted weighted average cigarette prices and other tobacco control policies. We found non-linear associations between exposure to positive and negative emotive campaigns and quitline calls. The rate of calls increased more than 50% as exposure to positive campaigns increased from 0 to 400 GRPs (rate ratio: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.25-2.01). An increase in calls in response to negative emotive campaigns was only apparent after monthly exposure exceeded 400 GRPs. While positive campaigns were most effective at increasing quitline calls, those with negative emotive content were also found to impact on call rates but only at higher levels of exposure. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

How does the emotive content of televised anti-smoking mass media campaigns influence monthly calls to the NHS Stop Smoking helpline in England?

PubMed Central

Richardson, Sol; Langley, Tessa; Szatkowski, Lisa; Sims, Michelle; Gilmore, Anna; McNeill, Ann; Lewis, Sarah

2014-01-01

Objective To investigate the effects of different types of televised mass media campaign content on calls to the English NHS Stop Smoking helpline. Method We used UK government-funded televised tobacco control campaigns from April 2005 to April 2010, categorised as either “positive” (eliciting happiness, satisfaction or hope) or “negative” (eliciting fear, guilt or disgust). We built negative binomial generalised additive models (GAMs) with linear and smooth terms for monthly per capita exposure to each campaign type (expressed as Gross Ratings Points, or GRPs) to determine their effect on calls in the same month. We adjusted for seasonal trends, inflation-adjusted weighted average cigarette prices and other tobacco control policies. Results We found non-linear associations between exposure to positive and negative emotive campaigns and quitline calls. The rate of calls increased more than 50% as exposure to positive campaigns increased from 0 to 400 GRPs (rate ratio: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.25–2.01). An increase in calls in response to negative emotive campaigns was only apparent after monthly exposure exceeded 400 GRPs. Conclusion While positive campaigns were most effective at increasing quitline calls, those with negative emotive content were also found to impact on call rates but only at higher levels of exposure. PMID:25197004

Distributed Energy Resources On-Site Optimization for Commercial Buildings with Electric and Thermal Storage Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lacommare, Kristina S H; Stadler, Michael; Aki, Hirohisa

The addition of storage technologies such as flow batteries, conventional batteries, and heat storage can improve the economic as well as environmental attractiveness of on-site generation (e.g., PV, fuel cells, reciprocating engines or microturbines operating with or without CHP) and contribute to enhanced demand response. In order to examine the impact of storage technologies on demand response and carbon emissions, a microgrid's distributed energy resources (DER) adoption problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program that has the minimization of annual energy costs as its objective function. By implementing this approach in the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS), the problemmore » is solved for a given test year at representative customer sites, such as schools and nursing homes, to obtain not only the level of technology investment, but also the optimal hourly operating schedules. This paper focuses on analysis of storage technologies in DER optimization on a building level, with example applications for commercial buildings. Preliminary analysis indicates that storage technologies respond effectively to time-varying electricity prices, i.e., by charging batteries during periods of low electricity prices and discharging them during peak hours. The results also indicate that storage technologies significantly alter the residual load profile, which can contribute to lower carbon emissions depending on the test site, its load profile, and its adopted DER technologies.« less

An integrated framework to assess adaptation options to climate change impacts in an irrigated basin in Central North Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vicuna, S.; Melo, O.; Meza, F. J.; Alvarez, P.; Maureira, F.; Sanchez, A.; Tapia, A.; Cortes, M.; Dale, L. L.

2013-12-01

Future climate conditions could potentially affect water supply and demand on water basins throughout the world but especially on snowmelt-driven agriculture oriented basins that can be found throughout central Chile. Increasing temperature and reducing precipitation will affect both the magnitude and timing of water supply this part of the world. Different adaptation strategies could be implemented to reduce the impacts of such scenarios. Some could be incorporated as planned policies decided at the basin or Water Use Organization levels. Examples include changing large scale irrigation infrastructure (reservoirs and main channels) either physically or its operation. Complementing these strategies it is reasonable to think that at a disaggregated level, farmers would also react (adapt) to these new conditions using a mix of options to either modify their patterns of consumption (irrigation efficiency, crop mix, crop area reduction), increase their ability to access new sources of water (groundwater, water markets) or finally compensate their expected losses (insurance). We present a modeling framework developed to represent these issues using as a case study the Limarí basin located in Central Chile. This basin is a renowned example of how the development of reservoirs and irrigation infrastructure can reduce climate vulnerabilities allowing the economic development of a basin. Farmers in this basin tackle climate variability by adopting different strategies that depend first on the reservoir water volume allocation rule, on the type and size of investment they have at their farms and finally their potential access to water markets and other water supplies options. The framework developed can be used to study these strategies under current and future climate scenarios. The cornerstone of the framework is an hydrology and water resources model developed on the WEAP platform. This model is able to reproduce the large scale hydrologic features of the basin such as snowmelt hydrology, reservoir operation and groundwater dynamics. Crop yield under different water irrigation patterns have been inferred using a calibrated Cropsyst model. These crop yields together with user association irrigation constraints are used in a GAMS optimization model embedded dynamically in WEAP in order to obtain every year decisions on crop mix (including fallow land), irrigation patterns and participation in the spot water market. The GAMS optimization model has been calibrated using annual crop mix time series derived using a combination of sources of information ranging from different type of census plus satellite images. The resulting modeling platform is able to simulate under historic and future climate scenarios water availability in different locations of the basin with associated crop yield and economic consequences. The platform also allows the implementation of autonomous and planned adaptation strategies that could reduce the impacts of climate variability and climate change.

Urban air pollution and respiratory emergency visits at pediatric unit, Reggio Emilia, Italy.

PubMed

Bedeschi, Emanuela; Campari, Cinzia; Candela, Silvia; Collini, Giorgia; Caranci, Nicola; Frasca, Gabriella; Galassi, Claudia; Francesca, Gabriella; Vigotti, Maria Angela

2007-02-01

Short-term effects of air pollution on daily mortality and hospital admissions for respiratory causes are well documented. Few studies, however, explore the association between exposure to air pollution and daily emergency room visits for respiratory disorders, particularly in Italy and particularly among children as a susceptible population. A time-series analysis was conducted to explore the short-term association between air pollutants (PM10, total suspended particulates [TSP], NO2, SO2, CO, O3) and pediatric emergency room (ER) visits in a small city of northern Italy, Reggio Emilia, during the period 03/01/2001-03/31/2002. There were 1051 ER visits included in the study. Data were analyzed using generalized additive models (GAM), adjusting for various confounding variables, including temperature, humidity, and pollens (Graminaceae). The analyses were also stratified according to the nationality of children (Italians and foreigners). In single-pollutant models, the strongest associations were observed at lag 3 for a 10-microg/m3 increase of TSP (2.7% increase in ER, 95% CI 0.7-4.6) and PM10 (3.0% increase, 95% CI 0.4-5.7), and at lag 4 for a 10-microg/m3 increase of NO2 (11.0% increase in ER, 95% CI 3.6-18.8). At lag 3, the percentage increase in ER visits is similar for the 2 groups of children (Italians and foreigners) for TSP and PM10. The results of the study support the findings that air pollution is a relevant determinant of deterioration of respiratory health among children.

[Spatial-temporal and environmental effects of catch rate on Antarctic krill fishery in the South Georgia Island in the austral winter season based on the fine scale data].

PubMed

Zhu Guo-Ping; Liu, Zi-Jun; Xu, Guo-Dong; Zhang, Ji-Chang; Meng, Tao; Huang, Hong-Liang; Xu, Yi-Ying; Zhu, Xiao-Yan; Xu, Liu-Xiong

2014-08-01

The waters around the South Georgia Island is one of the main fishing ground of Antarctic krill fishery and many predators such as sea seal and whale inhabited this island target Antarctic krill as a food source. So it is very important for further understanding Antarctic ecosystem to conduct the research on abundance fluctuation of Antarctic krill resource around this island. Consequently, based on the fine scale fishery data collected in the winter 2013, using the generalized additive model (GAM), the present study analyzed the relationship between environmental factors and the catch rate of Antarctic krill. The results showed the model could explain 32.0% of the accumulation of deviance of the catch rate. The variable that provided the maximum contribution was ten-day with a contribution rate of 21.4% and followed by the latitude (4.4%). Generally, the catch rate decreased from the first 10 days of July to September. Higher catch rates occurred in the eastern fishing ground, particularly the central-eastern part of survey area, and lower catch rates presented in the northern part. The mean catch rate deceased with the increasing change rate of bathymetry. The oceanographic condition with wind scale below 4 was suitable for fishing operation and associated with the higher catch rate, but the wind direction did not significantly affect the catch rate. The mean catch rate increased with the increasing sea surface temperature within 0.5 to 2.0 degrees C.

Approach for estimating the dynamic physical thresholds of phytoplankton production and biomass in the tropical-subtropical Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez-Ocampo, E.; Gaxiola-Castro, G.; Durazo, Reginaldo

2017-06-01

Threshold is defined as the point where small changes in an environmental driver produce large responses in the ecosystem. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to estimate the thresholds and contribution of key dynamic physical variables in terms of phytoplankton production and variations in biomass in the tropical-subtropical Pacific Ocean off Mexico. The statistical approach used here showed that thresholds were shallower for primary production than for phytoplankton biomass (pycnocline < 68 m and mixed layer < 30 m versus pycnocline < 45 m and mixed layer < 80 m) but were similar for absolute dynamic topography and Ekman pumping (ADT < 59 cm and EkP > 0 cm d-1 versus ADT < 60 cm and EkP > 4 cm d-1). The relatively high productivity on seasonal (spring) and interannual (La Niña 2008) scales was linked to low ADT (45-60 cm) and shallow pycnocline depth (9-68 m) and mixed layer (8-40 m). Statistical estimations from satellite data indicated that the contributions of ocean circulation to phytoplankton variability were 18% (for phytoplankton biomass) and 46% (for phytoplankton production). Although the statistical contribution of models constructed with in situ integrated chlorophyll a and primary production data was lower than the one obtained with satellite data (11%), the fits were better for the former, based on the residual distribution. The results reported here suggest that estimated thresholds may reliably explain the spatial-temporal variations of phytoplankton in the tropical-subtropical Pacific Ocean off the coast of Mexico.

Dynamic cellular manufacturing system considering machine failure and workload balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabbani, Masoud; Farrokhi-Asl, Hamed; Ravanbakhsh, Mohammad

2018-02-01

Machines are a key element in the production system and their failure causes irreparable effects in terms of cost and time. In this paper, a new multi-objective mathematical model for dynamic cellular manufacturing system (DCMS) is provided with consideration of machine reliability and alternative process routes. In this dynamic model, we attempt to resolve the problem of integrated family (part/machine cell) formation as well as the operators' assignment to the cells. The first objective minimizes the costs associated with the DCMS. The second objective optimizes the labor utilization and, finally, a minimum value of the variance of workload between different cells is obtained by the third objective function. Due to the NP-hard nature of the cellular manufacturing problem, the problem is initially validated by the GAMS software in small-sized problems, and then the model is solved by two well-known meta-heuristic methods including non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm and multi-objective particle swarm optimization in large-scaled problems. Finally, the results of the two algorithms are compared with respect to five different comparison metrics.

INDEPENDENT EVALUATION OF THE GAM EX5ALN MINIATURE LINE-NARROWED KRF EXCIMER LASER

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-01

software included the disabled tabs and buttons that clutter the panels. Information on these panels was not updated correctly (e.g., shots per fill and...total shots are not stored correctly and appear to contain random data, the lock function on the fill page does not update correctly, the time to...fill level after 7 M shots . .............................................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. 7: Shelf-life

Apatite and Chitin Amendments Promote Microbial Activity and Augment Metal Removal in Marine Sediments

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-07-01

abundance of Deltaproteobacteria and decrease of Actinobacteria , Alphaproteobacteria, and Nitrospirae. Many of these groups of bacteria have been shown to...shifts were observed from clone library analyses (Table 2 and Fig- ure 4). Actinobacteria , Alphaproteobacteria, Gam- maproteobacteria...abundance (%) Phylum FUS FCS FACS Impact Acidobacteria - - 1.9 Induced Actinobacteria 20.8 8.6 3.8 Decreased Alphaproteobacteria 22.9 14.3 13.2 Decreased

Two Ganoderma species: profiling of phenolic compounds by HPLC-DAD, antioxidant, antimicrobial and inhibitory activities on key enzymes linked to diabetes mellitus, Alzheimer's disease and skin disorders.

PubMed

Zengin, Gokhan; Sarikurkcu, Cengiz; Gunes, Erdogan; Uysal, Ahmet; Ceylan, Ramazan; Uysal, Sengul; Gungor, Halil; Aktumsek, Abdurrahman

2015-08-01

This work reports the antioxidant, antimicrobial, and inhibitory effects of methanol and water extracts from Ganoderma applanatum (GAM: methanol extract and GAW: water extract) and G. resinaceum (GRM: methanol extract and GRW: water extract) against cholinesterase, tyrosinase, α-amylase and α-glucosidase. The total phenolics, flavonoids contents, and HPLC profile of phenolic components present in the extracts, were also determined. Antioxidant activities were investigated by using different assays, including DPPH, ABTS, FRAP, CUPRAC, phosphomolybdenum and metal chelating assays. Antimicrobial activity of the tested Ganoderma extracts was also studied by the broth microdilution method. Generally, the highest antioxidant (59.24 mg TEs per g extract for DPPH, 41.32 mg TEs per g extract for ABTS, 41.35 mg TEs per g extract for CUPRAC, 49.68 mg TEs per g extract for FRAP, 130.57 mg AAEs per g extract for phosphomolybdenum and 26.92 mg EDTAEs per g extract) and enzyme inhibitory effects (1.47 mg GALAEs per g extract for AChE, 1.51 mg GALAEs per g extract for BChE, 13.40 mg KAEs per g extract for tyrosinase, 1.13 mmol ACEs per g extract for α-amylase and 2.20 mmol ACEs per g extract for α-glucosidase) were observed in GRM, which had the highest concentrations of phenolics (37.32 mg GAEs g(-1) extract). Again, Ganoderma extracts possess weak antibacterial and antifungal activities. Apigenin and protocatechuic acid were determined as the main components in GRM (1761 μg per g extract) and GAM (165 μg per g extract), respectively. The results suggest that the Ganoderma species may be considered as a candidate for preparing new food supplements and can represent a good model for the development of new drug formulations.

Capturing Cd(ii) and Pb(ii) from contaminated water sources by electro-deposition on hydrotalcite-like compounds.

PubMed

González, M A; Trócoli, R; Pavlovic, I; Barriga, C; La Mantia, F

2016-01-21

Two different hydrotalcite-like compounds were prepared and used as substrates for the electrochemical removal of extremely toxic pollutant cations, such as Cd(ii) and Pb(ii), from aqueous solutions, and their subsequent recovery for further potential applications. By deposition on the hydrotalcite electrode, it was possible to remove 75% of Cd(ii) contained in a starting 5.2 mM solution of CdCl2, which was subsequently recovered and concentrated up to 14.3 mM in a single step. A removal of almost 100% was obtained in the case of Pb(ii). Its recovery was largely hindered by the formation of several inert phases, among which is some stable formation of hydroxycarbonate. Our results suggest that the removal of these contaminants by hydrotalcite-like compounds occurs by the combination of two parallel processes: electro-deposition and adsorption. It was possible to achieve a removal capacity for Cd(ii) and Pb(ii) equal to 763 mg ga.m.(-1) and 1039 mg ga.m.(-1), respectively. These removal capacities, accompanied by an excellent posterior eluent-free recovery of Cd(ii), suggest that this new method could be an environmentally friendly alternative to the conventional adsorption wastewater treatment.

Geographic variation in Chinese children' forced vital capacity and its association with long-term exposure to local PM10: a national cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Wang, Hai-Jun; Li, Qin; Guo, Yuming; Song, Jie-Yun; Wang, Zhiqiang; Ma, Jun

2017-10-01

The purpose of this study was to estimate the association between Chinese children's forced vital capacity (FVC) and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm (PM 10 ). The FVC data of 71,763 children aged 7 to 18 was collected from 2010 Chinese National Survey on Students' Construction and Health (CNSSCH). The local annual average concentration of PM 10 , relative humidity, ambient temperature, and other air pollutant data of 30 cities was collected from China Meteorological Administration and Ministry of Environment Protection of China. Then, we used generalized additive model (GAM) to estimate the association between children's FVC and PM 10 . The obvious geographic variation in FVC was found in children of 30 Chinese cities ranging from 1647 ml in Xining to 2571 ml in Beijing. The annual average concentration of PM 10 was also different, ranging from 40 μg/m 3 in Haikou to 155 μg/m 3 in Lanzhou. After adjusted individual characteristics, socioeconomic conditions, ambient temperature, relative humidity, and other air pollutants (e.g., NO 2 and SO 2 ) in the generalized additive model, we found that the increase of PM 10 was associated with decrease of FVC in Chinese children. A 10-μg/m 3 increase of PM 10 was associated with 1.33-ml decrease in FVC (95% confidence interval: -2.18 to -0.47). We also found a larger effect estimate of PM 10 on FVC in boys than that in girls. Consistent associations were found in both physically inactive and active children. The increase of PM 10 was associated with decrease of children's FVC. We should develop proper public health policy to protect children's respiratory health during growth and development in polluted areas.

Topsoil organic carbon content of Europe, a new map based on a generalised additive model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Brogniez, Delphine; Ballabio, Cristiano; Stevens, Antoine; Jones, Robert J. A.; Montanarella, Luca; van Wesemael, Bas

2014-05-01

There is an increasing demand for up-to-date spatially continuous organic carbon (OC) data for global environment and climatic modeling. Whilst the current map of topsoil organic carbon content for Europe (Jones et al., 2005) was produced by applying expert-knowledge based pedo-transfer rules on large soil mapping units, the aim of this study was to replace it by applying digital soil mapping techniques on the first European harmonised geo-referenced topsoil (0-20 cm) database, which arises from the LUCAS (land use/cover area frame statistical survey) survey. A generalized additive model (GAM) was calibrated on 85% of the dataset (ca. 17 000 soil samples) and a backward stepwise approach selected slope, land cover, temperature, net primary productivity, latitude and longitude as environmental covariates (500 m resolution). The validation of the model (applied on 15% of the dataset), gave an R2 of 0.27. We observed that most organic soils were under-predicted by the model and that soils of Scandinavia were also poorly predicted. The model showed an RMSE of 42 g kg-1 for mineral soils and of 287 g kg-1 for organic soils. The map of predicted OC content showed the lowest values in Mediterranean countries and in croplands across Europe, whereas highest OC content were predicted in wetlands, woodlands and in mountainous areas. The map of standard error of the OC model predictions showed high values in northern latitudes, wetlands, moors and heathlands, whereas low uncertainty was mostly found in croplands. A comparison of our results with the map of Jones et al. (2005) showed a general agreement on the prediction of mineral soils' OC content, most probably because the models use some common covariates, namely land cover and temperature. Our model however failed to predict values of OC content greater than 200 g kg-1, which we explain by the imposed unimodal distribution of our model, whose mean is tilted towards the majority of soils, which are mineral. Finally, average OC content predictions for each land cover class compared well between models, with our model always showing smaller standard deviations. We concluded that the chosen model and covariates are appropriate for the prediction of OC content in European mineral soils. We presented in this work the first map of topsoil OC content at European scale based on a harmonised soil dataset. The associated uncertainty map shall support the end-users in a careful use of the predictions.

The impact of immigration and vaccination in reducing the incidence of hepatitis B in Catalonia (Spain)

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major cause of liver disease and liver cancer worldwide according to the World Health Organization. Following acute HBV infection, 1-5% of infected healthy adults and up to 90% of infected infants become chronic carriers and have an increased risk of cirrhosis and primary hepatocellular carcinoma. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between the reduction in acute hepatitis B incidence and the universal vaccination programme in preadolescents in Catalonia (Spain), taking population changes into account, and to construct a model to forecast the future incidence of cases that permits the best preventive strategy to be adopted. Methods Reported acute hepatitis B incidence in Catalonia according to age, gender, vaccination coverage, percentage of immigrants and the year of report of cases was analysed. A statistical analysis was made using three models: generalized linear models (GLM) with Poisson or negative binomial distribution and a generalized additive model (GAM). Results The higher the vaccination coverage, the lower the reported incidence of hepatitis B (p <0.01). In groups with vaccination coverage > 70%, the reduction in incidence was 2-fold higher than in groups with a coverage <70% (p <0.01). The increase in incidence was significantly-higher in groups with a high percentage of immigrants and more than 15% (p <0.01) in immigrant males of working age (19-49 years). Conclusions The results of the adjusted models in this study confirm that the global incidence of hepatitis B has declined in Catalonia after the introduction of the universal preadolescent vaccination programme, but the incidence increased in male immigrants of working age. Given the potential severity of hepatitis B for the health of individuals and for the community, universal vaccination programmes should continue and programmes in risk groups, especially immigrants, should be strengthened. PMID:22867276

Atmospheric circulation types and daily mortality in Athens, Greece.

PubMed Central

Kassomenos, P; Gryparis, A; Samoli, E; Katsouyanni, K; Lykoudis, S; Flocas, H A

2001-01-01

We investigated the short-term effects of synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric circulation types on mortality in Athens, Greece. The synoptic patterns in the lower troposphere were classified in 8 a priori defined categories. The mesoscale weather types were classified into 11 categories, using meteorologic parameters from the Athens area surface monitoring network; the daily number of deaths was available for 1987-1991. We applied generalized additive models (GAM), extending Poisson regression, using a LOESS smoother to control for the confounding effects of seasonal patterns. We adjusted for long-term trends, day of the week, ambient particle concentrations, and additional temperature effects. Both classifications, synoptic and mesoscale, explain the daily variation of mortality to a statistically significant degree. The highest daily mortality was observed on days characterized by southeasterly flow [increase 10%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 6.1-13.9% compared to the high-low pressure system), followed by zonal flow (5.8%; 95% CI, 1.8-10%). The high-low pressure system and the northwesterly flow are associated with the lowest mortality. The seasonal patterns are consistent with the annual pattern. For mesoscale categories, in the cold period the highest mortality is observed during days characterized by the easterly flow category (increase 9.4%; 95% CI, 1.0-18.5% compared to flow without the main component). In the warm period, the highest mortality occurs during the strong southerly flow category (8.5% increase; 95% CI, 2.0-15.4% compared again to flow without the main component). Adjusting for ambient particle levels leaves the estimated associations unchanged for the synoptic categories and slightly increases the effects of mesoscale categories. In conclusion, synoptic and mesoscale weather classification is a useful tool for studying the weather-health associations in a warm Mediterranean climate situation. PMID:11445513

Unleashing the Dragon

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-01-01

productron China often “dumped” products on the world market (ie, sold items at a price / less than it took to produce) m order to gam an export excess...regulations are founded on the pnncrple of an open market economy Whrle Chma is struggling to transmon to a modified open market economy rt cannot...and mrhtarsly Chma’s ad economic goai is, to transitron mto a socmahst market economy wee a capualrst open marker ecorromy wl-& I the Western world

The Future of Indonesia as a Unitary State: Separatism and Decentralization

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-09-01

evident in GOI positions on negotiations with GAM representatives. On 4 January 2002 the minister of home affairs, retired general Hari Sabarno...that the civilian authorities have not been able to end the violence in the province. Minister of Home Affairs Hari Sabarno, a retired three-star...not actually proclaim independence; Peter King, “Morning Star Rising? Indonesia Raya and the New Papuan Nationalism,” Indonesia, No. 73 (April 2002

Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Díaz, Julio; García, Ricardo; López, César; Linares, Cristina; Tobías, Aurelio; Prieto, Luis

2005-01-01

During the last few years great attention has been paid to the evaluation of the impact of extreme temperatures on human health. This paper examines the effect of extreme winter temperature on mortality in Madrid for people older than 65, using ARIMA and GAM models. Data correspond to 1,815 winter days over the period 1986 1997, during which time a total of 133,000 deaths occurred. The daily maximum temperature (Tmax) was shown to be the best thermal indicator of the impact of climate on mortality. When total mortality was considered, the maximum impact occured 7 8 days after a temperature extreme; for circulatory diseases the lag was between 7 and 14 days. When respiratory causes were considered, two mortality peaks were evident at 4 5 and 11 days. When the impact of winter extreme temperatures was compared with that associated with summer extremes, it was found to occur over a longer term, and appeared to be more indirect.

Dike Strength Analysis on a Regional Scale Based On a Stochastic Subsoil Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koelewijn, A. R.; Vastenburg, E. W.

2013-12-01

About two-third of the Netherlands is protected against flooding by dikes and levees. The subsoil can be characterized by fluvial and marine sediments. Maintaining the safety of these dikes and levees is of vital importance. Insufficient safety is not permissible, but excessive safety would imply a waste of money and other resources. Therefore safety assessments are carried out on a regular basis. Over the past decades, a practice has grown to calculate a limited number of cross-sections, roughly one every 500 to 1000 meters. For this purpose, a representative cross-section is selected as an estimate of the most vulnerable surface geometry and the subsoil conditions determined from boreholes and cone penetration tests, for which slope stability and piping analyses are carried out. This is a time-consuming procedure which is not only expensive, but also neglects geological knowledge. A method to incorporate geological knowledge of an area, including updating on the basis of additional investigations, has been described in Koelewijn et al. [2011]. In addition, various groups have worked to incorporate geotechnical stability models and detailed Lidar-measurements of the surface into a more efficient and rational calculation process [Knoeff et al. 2011, Lam et al. 2013, van den Ham & Mastbergen, 2013]. Combining this experience with the 3D subsoil model opens possibilities for cost-effective additional soil investigations for those locations where ruling out unfavorable conditions really influences the decisions to be made regarding rejection and improvement, see the figure for examples of different subsoil profiles along a dike. The resulting system has been applied for semi-automated calculations of dikes in various parts of the Netherlands, totalling over 4000 km by now, and a part of the Mississippi levee system. [van den Ham & Mastbergen, 2013] G.A. van den Ham & D.R. Mastbergen, A semi-probabilistic assessment method for flow slides. AGU Fall meeting, 2013 [Knoeff et al. 2011] J.G. Knoeff, E.W. Vastenburg, G.A. van den Ham & J. Lopez de la Cruz, Automated levee flood risk management, 5th Int. Conf. on Flood Management, Tokyo, 2011 [Koelewijn et al. 2011] A.R. Koelewijn, G.A.M. Kruse & J. Pruiksma, Stochastic subsoil modelling - first set-up of the model and reliability analyses, report 12042000-002-HYE-0001, Deltares, Delft, 2011 [In Dutch] [Lam et al. 2013] K.S. Lam, P.W. Gill & L.W.A. Zwang, Implementation of new levee strength modules for continuous safety assessments, Comprehensive Flood Risk Managment, Taylor & Francis, London, 2013, 317-326. Dike sections with stochastic subsoil profiles.

Baleen whale abundance and distribution in relation to environmental variables and prey density in the Eastern Bering Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zerbini, Alexandre N.; Friday, Nancy A.; Palacios, Daniel M.; Waite, Janice M.; Ressler, Patrick H.; Rone, Brenda K.; Moore, Sue E.; Clapham, Phillip J.

2016-12-01

The Bering Sea is one of the most productive marine ecosystems in the world and an important habitat for various marine mammal species. Once abundant in this region, most baleen whale species were severely depleted by commercial whaling in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Since their protection in mid-20th century, baleen whale populations have been recovering and reoccupying their historical habitats. These species can consume large amounts of their prey and thus can modify the local structure of ecosystems. Characterizing the extent to which environmental conditions and prey density influence baleen whale abundance in the Eastern Bering Sea is essential to improve our understanding of ecosystem dynamics and to predict how these species might respond to ecosystem variability associated with climate changes. In this study, physiographic, oceanographic, and biological datasets from 2008 to 2010 were combined to model the habitat characteristics of fin whales, humpback whales, and minke whales in the EBS in early summer (June and July) using generalized additive models (GAMs). The explained deviances of the best-supported models were 54.9%, 20.6%, and 68.3% for minke, fin and humpback whales, respectively. Minke and fin whales had similar distribution patterns in the EBS but their abundance was predicted by different explanatory variables. Euphausiid and pollock biomasses, and depth were important predictors of minke whale numbers, while distance to shore, euphausiid biomass, distance to the 200 m isobath, and chlorophyll-a concentration better explained fin whale abundance. Humpback whales showed a preference for shallow, coastal waters north of the Alaska Peninsula. For this species, sea surface temperature, depth, chlorophyll-a concentration and euphausid biomass were important predictors of abundance. This study is the first to provide a habitat baseline for baleen whales in the EBS based on a quantitative assessment of the relationship between whale abundance, environmental variables, and density of euphausiids and age-1 pollock in early summer. Because this study was conducted during a cold temperature regime in the Bering Sea, additional research is needed to assess how whales respond to environmental variables and prey biomass in years with warm conditions.

Changes in OMI tropospheric NO 2 columns over Europe from 2004 to 2009 and the influence of meteorological variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Yipin; Brunner, Dominik; Hueglin, Christoph; Henne, Stephan; Staehelin, Johannes

2012-01-01

This study analyzes the changes of NO 2 vertical tropospheric columns (VTCs) over Europe during the period 2004-2009 using a statistical model, based on a homogeneous high-quality data set of observations of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument OMI. At each point of a regular grid, a Generalized Additive regression Model (GAM) with non-parametric model terms was fitted to the observed columns to describe the most relevant factors contributing to the observed variability in NO 2 VTCs. These factors include annual cycle, day of week, wind, precipitation, retrieved cloud radiance fraction, and trend. Significant negative changes are found in areas with large anthropogenic sources over Western Europe (mostly from -4 to -8% year -1). The overall negative changes are consistent with EMEP/CEIP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme/Center on Emission Inventories and Projections) emission estimations and previous trend studies. However, we found remarkably large spatial variations in NO 2 column changes within individual regions. Our analysis shows that in particular the NO x emissions from Spanish power plants (from -10 to approx. -20% year -1) and over the center of England (up to approx. -12% year -1) have been strongly reduced in the past few years, at a rate exceeding the reported emission changes averaged over the individual country. A number of other features of the temporal behavior of the time series of tropospheric NO 2 distributions over Europe were quantified, including clear annual and weekly cycles. Modeling the influence of wind considering both wind direction and wind speed not only improves the accuracy of the trend results, but can be particularly interesting for identifying the sources of the NO 2 VTCs and the transport pathways of air pollutants. The effects of precipitation are observed to vary obviously during warm and cold months, due to the strong seasonal dependence of soil NO x emissions.

Feasibility of biohydrogen production from industrial wastes using defined microbial co-culture.

PubMed

Chen, Peng; Wang, Yuxia; Yan, Lei; Wang, Yiqing; Li, Suyue; Yan, Xiaojuan; Wang, Ningbo; Liang, Ning; Li, Hongyu

2015-05-06

The development of clean or novel alternative energy has become a global trend that will shape the future of energy. In the present study, 3 microbial strains with different oxygen requirements, including Clostridium acetobutylicum ATCC 824, Enterobacter cloacae ATCC 13047 and Kluyveromyces marxianus 15D, were used to construct a hydrogen production system that was composed of a mixed aerobic-facultative anaerobic-anaerobic consortium. The effects of metal ions, organic acids and carbohydrate substrates on this system were analyzed and compared using electrochemical and kinetic assays. It was then tested using small-scale experiments to evaluate its ability to convert starch in 5 L of organic wastewater into hydrogen. For the one-step biohydrogen production experiment, H1 medium (nutrient broth and potato dextrose broth) was mixed directly with GAM broth to generate H2 medium (H1 medium and GAM broth). Finally, Clostridium acetobutylicum ATCC 824, Enterobacter cloacae ATCC 13047 and Kluyveromyces marxianus 15D of three species microbial co-culture to produce hydrogen under anaerobic conditions. For the two-step biohydrogen production experiment, the H1 medium, after cultured the microbial strains Enterobacter cloacae ATCC 13047 and Kluyveromyces marxianus 15D, was centrifuged to remove the microbial cells and then mixed with GAM broth (H2 medium). Afterward, the bacterial strain Clostridium acetobutylicum ATCC 824 was inoculated into the H2 medium to produce hydrogen by anaerobic fermentation. The experimental results demonstrated that the optimum conditions for the small-scale fermentative hydrogen production system were at pH 7.0, 35°C, a mixed medium, including H1 medium and H2 medium with 0.50 mol/L ferrous chloride, 0.50 mol/L magnesium sulfate, 0.50 mol/L potassium chloride, 1% w/v citric acid, 5% w/v fructose and 5% w/v glucose. The overall hydrogen production efficiency in the shake flask fermentation group was 33.7 mL/h(-1).L(-1), and those the two-step and the one-step processes of the small-scale fermentative hydrogen production system were 41.2 mL/h(-1).L(-1) and 35.1 mL/h(-1).L(-1), respectively. Therefore, the results indicate that the hydrogen production efficiency of the two-step process is higher than that of the one-step process.

Snow model design for operational purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolberg, Sjur

2017-04-01

A parsimonious distributed energy balance snow model intended for operational use is evaluated using discharge, snow covered area and grain size; the latter two as observed from the MODIS sensor. The snow model is an improvement of the existing GamSnow model, which is a part of the Enki modelling framework. Core requirements for the new version have been: 1. Reduction of calibration freedom, motivated by previous experience of non-identifiable parameters in the existing version 2. Improvement of process representation based on recent advances in physically based snow modelling 3. Limiting the sensitivity to forcing data which are poorly known over the spatial domain of interest (often in mountainous areas) 4. Preference for observable states, and the ability to improve from updates. The albedo calculation is completely revised, now based on grain size through an emulation of the SNICAR model (Flanner and Zender, 2006; Gardener and Sharp, 2010). The number of calibration parameters in the albedo model is reduced from 6 to 2. The wind function governing turbulent energy fluxes has been reduced from 2 to 1 parameter. Following Raleigh et al (2011), snow surface radiant temperature is split from the top layer thermodynamic temperature, using bias-corrected wet-bulb temperature to model the former. Analyses are ongoing, and the poster will bring evaluation results from 16 years of MODIS observations and more than 25 catchments in southern Norway.

Elevational Gradients in Fish Diversity in the Himalaya: Water Discharge Is the Key Driver of Distribution Patterns

PubMed Central

Bhatt, Jay P.; Manish, Kumar; Pandit, Maharaj K.

2012-01-01

Background Studying diversity and distribution patterns of species along elevational gradients and understanding drivers behind these patterns is central to macroecology and conservation biology. A number of studies on biogeographic gradients are available for terrestrial ecosystems, but freshwater ecosystems remain largely neglected. In particular, we know very little about the species richness gradients and their drivers in the Himalaya, a global biodiversity hotspot. Methodology/Principal Findings We collated taxonomic and distribution data of fish species from 16 freshwater Himalayan rivers and carried out empirical studies on environmental drivers and fish diversity and distribution in the Teesta river (Eastern Himalaya). We examined patterns of fish species richness along the Himalayan elevational gradients (50–3800 m) and sought to understand the drivers behind the emerging patterns. We used generalized linear models (GLM) and generalized additive models (GAM) to examine the richness patterns; GLM was used to investigate relationship between fish species richness and various environmental variables. Regression modelling involved stepwise procedures, including elimination of collinear variables, best model selection, based on the least Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) and the highest percentage of deviance explained (D2). This maiden study on the Himalayan fishes revealed that total and non-endemic fish species richness monotonously decrease with increasing elevation, while endemics peaked around mid elevations (700–1500 m). The best explanatory model (synthetic model) indicated that water discharge is the best predictor of fish species richness patterns in the Himalayan rivers. Conclusions/Significance This study, carried out along one of the longest bioclimatic elevation gradients of the world, lends support to Rapoport’s elevational rule as opposed to mid domain effect hypothesis. We propose a species-discharge model and contradict species-area model in predicting fish species richness. We suggest that drivers of richness gradients in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are likely to be different. These studies are crucial in context of the impacts of unprecedented on-going river regulation on fish diversity and distribution in the Himalaya. PMID:23029444

Impact of social inequalities at birth on the longevity of children born 1914-1916: A cohort study.

PubMed

Todd, Nicolas; Le Fur, Sophie; Bougnères, Pierre; Valleron, Alain-Jacques

2017-01-01

Testing whether familial socioeconomic status (SES) in childhood is a predictor of mortality has rarely been done on historical cohorts. The birth certificates of 4,805 individuals born 1914-1916 in 16 districts of the Paris region were retrieved. The handwritten information provided the occupation of parents, the legitimacy status, life events (e.g. marriage, divorce), and the precise date of death when after 1945 (i.e. age 31 years (y) in the cohort). We used the median age at death (MAD) as a global measure of mortality, then studied separately survival to and after 31 y. Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE), Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and mixed effect Cox models were used. MAD showed large variations according to paternal occupation. The lowest MAD in both sexes was that of workers' children: it was 56.3 y (95% CI: [48.6-62.7]) in men and 67.4 y (95% CI: [60.8-72.7]) in women, respectively (95% CI: 13.4 y [5.7-21.3]) and 12.3 y (95% CI: [4.0-19.2]) below the highest MAD attained. MAD experienced by illegitimate children was 18.9 y (95% CI: [13.3-32.3]) shorter than of legitimate children. The multivariate analysis revealed that in both sexes survival to age 31 y was predicted independently by legitimacy and paternal occupation. Paternal occupation was found significantly associated with mortality after age 31 y in females only: accordingly difference in life expectancy at age 31 y was 4.4 y (95% CI: [1.2-7.6]) between upper class and workers' daughters. Paternal occupation and legitimacy status were strong predictors of offspring longevity in this one-century historical cohort born during World War One.

Spatial and seasonal variations of leaf area index (LAI) in subtropical secondary forests related to floristic composition and stand characters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Wenjuan; Xiang, Wenhua; Pan, Qiong; Zeng, Yelin; Ouyang, Shuai; Lei, Pifeng; Deng, Xiangwen; Fang, Xi; Peng, Changhui

2016-07-01

Leaf area index (LAI) is an important parameter related to carbon, water, and energy exchange between canopy and atmosphere and is widely applied in process models that simulate production and hydrological cycles in forest ecosystems. However, fine-scale spatial heterogeneity of LAI and its controlling factors have yet to be fully understood in Chinese subtropical forests. We used hemispherical photography to measure LAI values in three subtropical forests (Pinus massoniana-Lithocarpus glaber coniferous and evergreen broadleaved mixed forests, Choerospondias axillaris deciduous broadleaved forests, and L. glaber-Cyclobalanopsis glauca evergreen broadleaved forests) from April 2014 to January 2015. Spatial heterogeneity of LAI and its controlling factors were analysed using geostatistical methods and the generalised additive models (GAMs) respectively. Our results showed that LAI values differed greatly in the three forests and their seasonal variations were consistent with plant phenology. LAI values exhibited strong spatial autocorrelation for the three forests measured in January and for the L. glaber-C. glauca forest in April, July, and October. Obvious patch distribution pattern of LAI values occurred in three forests during the non-growing period and this pattern gradually dwindled in the growing season. Stem number, crown coverage, proportion of evergreen conifer species on basal area basis, proportion of deciduous species on basal area basis, and forest types affected the spatial variations in LAI values in January, while stem number and proportion of deciduous species on basal area basis affected the spatial variations in LAI values in July. Floristic composition, spatial heterogeneity, and seasonal variations should be considered for sampling strategy in indirect LAI measurement and application of LAI to simulate functional processes in subtropical forests.

Predicting seasonal variations in coastal seabird habitats in the English Channel and the Bay of Biscay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virgili, A.; Lambert, C.; Pettex, E.; Dorémus, G.; Van Canneyt, O.; Ridoux, V.

2017-07-01

Seabirds, like all animals, have to live in suitable habitats to fulfil their energetic needs for both somatic and reproductive growth and maintenance. Apart from migration trips, all coastal seabirds are linked to the coast, because they need to return daily to land for resting or breeding. Their use of marine habitats strongly depends on their biology, but also on environmental conditions, and can be described using habitat models. This study aimed to: (1) identify the processes that mostly influence seabird distributions along the coasts of the English Channel and the Bay of Biscay; (2) determine seasonal variations of these processes, (3) provide prediction maps that describe the species distributions. We collected data of coastal seabird sightings from aerial surveys carried out in the English Channel and the eastern North Atlantic in the winter 2011-2012 and summer 2012. We classified seabirds into morphological groups and described their habitats using physiographic and oceanographic variables in Generalised Additive Models (GAMs). Finally, we produced maps of predicted distributions by season for each group. The distributions of coastal seabirds were essentially determined by the distance to the nearest coast, with a weaker influence of oceanographic variables. The nature of the substrate, sand or rock, combined with the timing of reproduction, also contributed to determine seasonal at-sea distributions for some species. The highest densities were predicted near the coast, particularly in bays and estuaries for strictly coastal species with possible variations depending on the season. From this study, we were able to predict the seasonal distribution of the studied species according to varying environmental parameters that changed over time, allowing us to understand better their behaviour and ecology.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Z.; Pike, R.W.; Hertwig, T.A.

An effective approach for source reduction in chemical plants has been demonstrated using on-line optimization with flowsheeting (ASPEN PLUS) for process optimization and parameter estimation and the Tjao-Biegler algorithm implemented in a mathematical programming language (GAMS/MINOS) for data reconciliation and gross error detection. Results for a Monsanto sulfuric acid plant with a Bailey distributed control system showed a 25% reduction in the sulfur dioxide emissions and a 17% improvement in the profit over the current operating conditions. Details of the methods used are described.

Activity of aspargate (cathepsin D), cysteine proteases (cathepsins B, B + L, and H), and matrix metallopeptidase (collagenase) and their influence on protein and water-holding capacity of muscle in commercially farmed atlantic halibut (Hippoglossus hippoglossus L.).

PubMed

Hagen, Orjan; Solberg, Christel; Johnston, Ian A

2008-07-23

Atlantic halibut (Hippoglossus hippoglossus L.) were commercially farmed in Helgeland, Norway (May 2004-May 2005). The average weight (Mb) of fish increased over the 12 month production cycle by approximately 73% for females and approximately 50% for males, although during the winter months (November-early May) Mb was unchanged in females and declined by 18% in males because of sexual maturation and sperm release. Periods of zero or negative growth were associated with up to 5.7% (females) and 17.9% (males) decline in fast muscle protein content. The activities of cathepsins B, B + L, H, and D showed a reciprocal relationship and were highly correlated with the changes in protein content. Water-holding capacity was measured as the liquid loss increased from 3-5% in November to 11-13% in May. Two general additive models (GAMs) showed that cathepsin B + L, cathepsin D, and collagenase explained 73.1% of the total variance in protein content, while cathepsin H was the largest contributor to liquid loss, explaining approximately 48.8% of the total variance. The results indicate that to obtain the best flesh quality Atlantic halibut should be harvested in the fall or early winter when the liquid loss and cathepsin activities are low and less likely to cause problems during secondary processing and storage.

The relationship between fat content and biological parameters of bigeye tuna ( Thunnus obseus) in the Western Central Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Liming; Shen, Zhibin; Li, Jie; Li, Dongjing; Li, Yuwei

2016-10-01

Comparing fat content with physiological status can throw light on the reproduction and feeding behavior of the fish. The biological data of 586 bigeye tuna were collected from the longline fishery in the waters of Western Central Indian Ocean from November, 2012 to March, 2013. The spatial or temporal distribution of the fat content, and the relationships of fat content with gender, round weight, gonadal maturity and fork length were analyzed. A generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the relationships between fat content and fork length (FL), gonadosomatic index (GSI), condition factor (K), and somatic index (SI). Results showed that: 1) the fat content of bigeye tuna was in the range of 3.1%-27.1% with the average 12.8%; 2) there were no significant geographical differences of average fat content ( P > 0.05) among 1° squares in general; 3) there were no significant differences ( P > 0.05) of the fat content for different genders, months, or gonad maturity stages; 4) there was an extremely significant correlation ( P = 0.000) between fat content and FL and GSI. There was no significant correlation ( P = 0.051) between fat content and K. There was a significant correlation ( P = 0.003) between fat content and SI. The results of this study suggest that the fat content of the matured fish was relatively stable. The survey area was in a spawning region, and the survey period was the spawning season for bigeye tuna.

Association between Ambient Air Pollution and Hospital Emergency Admissions for Respiratory and Cardiovascular Diseases in Beijing: a Time Series Study.

PubMed

Zhang, Ying; Wang, Shi Gong; Ma, Yu Xia; Shang, Ke Zheng; Cheng, Yi Fan; Li, Xu; Ning, Gui Cai; Zhao, Wen Jing; Li, Nai Rong

2015-05-01

To investigate the association between ambient air pollution and hospital emergency admissions in Beijing. In this study, a semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAM) was used to evaluate the specific influences of air pollutants (PM10, SO2, and NO2) on hospital emergency admissions with different lag structures from 2009 to 2011, the sex and age specific influences of air pollution and the modifying effect of seasons on air pollution to analyze the possible interaction. It was found that a 10 μg/m3 increase in concentration of PM10 at lag 03 day, SO2 and NO2 at lag 0 day were associated with an increase of 0.88%, 0.76%, and 1.82% respectively in overall emergency admissions. A 10 μg/m3 increase in concentration of PM10, SO2 and NO2 at lag 5 day were associated with an increase of 1.39%, 1.56%, and 1.18% respectively in cardiovascular disease emergency admissions. For lag 02, a 10 μg/m3 increase in concentration of PM10, SO2 and NO2 were associated with 1.72%, 1.34%, and 2.57% increases respectively in respiratory disease emergency admissions. This study further confirmed that short-term exposure to ambient air pollution was associated with increased risk of hospital emergency admissions in Beijing. Copyright © 2015 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

Influences of wind and precipitation on different-sized particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5, PM10, PM2.5-10)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Boen; Jiao, Limin; Xu, Gang; Zhao, Suli; Tang, Xin; Zhou, Yue; Gong, Chen

2018-06-01

Though it is recognized that meteorology has a great impact on the diffusion, accumulation and transport of air pollutants, few studies have investigated the impacts on different-sized particulate matter concentrations. We conducted a systematic comparative analysis and used the framework of generalized additive models (GAMs) to explore the influences of critical meteorological parameters, wind and precipitation, on PM2.5, PM10 and PM2.5-10 concentrations in Wuhan during 2013-2016. Overall, results showed that the impacts of wind and precipitation on different-sized PM concentrations are significantly different. The fine PM concentrations decreased gradually with the increase of wind speed, while coarse PM concentrations would increase due to dust resuspension under strong wind. Wind direction exerts limited influence on coarse PM concentrations. Wind speed was linearly correlated with log-transformed PM2.5 concentrations, but nonlinearly correlated with log-transformed PM10 and PM2.5-10 concentrations. We also found the PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 concentrations decreased by nearly 60 and 15% when the wind speed was up to 6 m/s, respectively, indicating a stronger negative impact of wind-speed on fine PM than coarse PM. The scavenging efficiency of precipitation on PM2.5-10 was over twice as high as on PM2.5. Our findings may help to understand the impacts of meteorology on different PM concentrations as well as discriminate and forecast variation in particulate matter concentrations.

Short-term effects of air pollution on daily hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases in western China.

PubMed

Ma, Yuxia; Zhang, Haipeng; Zhao, Yuxin; Zhou, Jianding; Yang, Sixu; Zheng, Xiaodong; Wang, Shigong

2017-06-01

Controlling the confounding factors on cardiovascular diseases, such as long-time trend, calendar effect, and meteorological factors, a generalized additive model (GAM) was used to investigate the short-term effects of air pollutants (PM 10 , SO 2 , and NO 2 ) on daily cardiovascular admissions from March 1st to May 31st during 2007 to 2011 in Lanzhou, a heavily polluted city in western China. The influences of air pollutants were examined with different lag structures, and the potential effect modification by dust storm in spring was also investigated. Significant associations were found between air pollutants and hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases both on dust event days and non-dust event days in spring. Air pollutants had lag effects on different age and gender groups. Relative risks (RRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) associated with a 10 μg/m 3 increase were 1.14 (1.04~1.26) on lag1 for PM 10 , 1.31 (1.21~1.51) on lag01 for SO 2 , and 1.96 (1.49~2.57) on lag02 for NO 2 on dust days. Stronger effects of air pollutants were observed for females and the elderly (≥60 years). Our analysis concluded that the effects of air pollutants on cardiovascular admissions on dust days were significantly stronger than non-dust days. The current study strengthens the evidence of effects of air pollution on health and dust-exacerbated cardiovascular admissions in Lanzhou.

Effect of Meteorological Conditions and Geographical Factors in the Onset of Enterovirus 71

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yu-An; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2015-04-01

Since it was first recognized in California in 1969, enterovirus 71 (EV71) infection has been a significant cause of neurological disorder and death in children worldwide. In 1998 a historic epidemic of EV71 infection caused hand-foot-and-mouth disease and herpangina in thousands of people in Taiwan. The impact of EV71 infection is greatest during the summer months in Asia, and epidemics recur with a seasonal pattern. It was reported that seasonal patterns of EV71 differed by geographical localities. Previous studies have also showed significant relationships between meteorological variables, in particular, temperature and relative humidity, and the seasonal epidemic patterns of EV71. However, important issues that remain unclear include the spatiotemporal pattern of the EV71 outbreaks in Taiwan, and what role of favorable meteorological conditions in the transmission of the disease in the space-time domain. Thus, this study used a semiparametric generalized additive model (GAM) to understand the association between EV71 and meteorological factors across space and time. This study utilized a population-based database containing space-time data for clinic and hospital visits (i.e., hospital location and appointment times) of EV71 occurring in children less than 18 years old in Taipei from 1998 to 2008. Meteorological data (i.e., temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity) for the study period were provided by the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau. This study expect to find out an important meteorological factor and threshold.

Spatial prediction of Soil Organic Carbon contents in croplands, grasslands and forests using environmental covariates and Generalized Additive Models (Southern Belgium)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chartin, Caroline; Stevens, Antoine; van Wesemael, Bas

2015-04-01

Providing spatially continuous Soil Organic Carbon data (SOC) is needed to support decisions regarding soil management, and inform the political debate with quantified estimates of the status and change of the soil resource. Digital Soil Mapping techniques are based on relations existing between a soil parameter (measured at different locations in space at a defined period) and relevant covariates (spatially continuous data) that are factors controlling soil formation and explaining the spatial variability of the target variable. This study aimed at apply DSM techniques to recent SOC content measurements (2005-2013) in three different landuses, i.e. cropland, grassland, and forest, in the Walloon region (Southern Belgium). For this purpose, SOC databases of two regional Soil Monitoring Networks (CARBOSOL for croplands and grasslands, and IPRFW for forests) were first harmonized, totalising about 1,220 observations. Median values of SOC content for croplands, grasslands, and forests, are respectively of 12.8, 29.0, and 43.1 g C kg-1. Then, a set of spatial layers were prepared with a resolution of 40 meters and with the same grid topology, containing environmental covariates such as, landuses, Digital Elevation Model and its derivatives, soil texture, C factor, carbon inputs by manure, and climate. Here, in addition to the three classical texture classes (clays, silt, and sand), we tested the use of clays + fine silt content (particles < 20 µm and related to stable carbon fraction) as soil covariate explaining SOC variations. For each of the three land uses (cropland, grassland and forest), a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was calibrated on two thirds of respective dataset. The remaining samples were assigned to a test set to assess model performance. A backward stepwise procedure was followed to select the relevant environmental covariates using their approximate p-values (the level of significance was set at p < 0.05). Standard errors were estimated for each of the three models. The backward stepwise procedure selected coordinates, elevation and clays + fine silt content as environment covariates to model SOC variation in cropland soils; latitude, precipitation, and clays + fine silt content (< 20 µm) for grassland soils; and latitude, elevation, topographic position index and clays + fine silt content (< 20 µm) for forest soils. The validation of the models gave a R² of 0.62 for croplands, 0.38 for grasslands, and 0.35 for forests. These results will be developed and discussed based on implications of natural against anthropogenic drivers on SOC distribution for these three landuses. To finish, a map combining detailed information of SOC content for agricultural soils and forests was for the first time computed for the Walloon region.

Neoclassical Simulation of Tokamak Plasmas using Continuum Gyrokinetc Code TEMPEST

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, X Q

We present gyrokinetic neoclassical simulations of tokamak plasmas with self-consistent electric field for the first time using a fully nonlinear (full-f) continuum code TEMPEST in a circular geometry. A set of gyrokinetic equations are discretized on a five dimensional computational grid in phase space. The present implementation is a Method of Lines approach where the phase-space derivatives are discretized with finite differences and implicit backwards differencing formulas are used to advance the system in time. The fully nonlinear Boltzmann model is used for electrons. The neoclassical electric field is obtained by solving gyrokinetic Poisson equation with self-consistent poloidal variation. Withmore » our 4D ({psi}, {theta}, {epsilon}, {mu}) version of the TEMPEST code we compute radial particle and heat flux, the Geodesic-Acoustic Mode (GAM), and the development of neoclassical electric field, which we compare with neoclassical theory with a Lorentz collision model. The present work provides a numerical scheme and a new capability for self-consistently studying important aspects of neoclassical transport and rotations in toroidal magnetic fusion devices.« less

A model for distribution centers location-routing problem on a multimodal transportation network with a meta-heuristic solving approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fazayeli, Saeed; Eydi, Alireza; Kamalabadi, Isa Nakhai

2017-07-01

Nowadays, organizations have to compete with different competitors in regional, national and international levels, so they have to improve their competition capabilities to survive against competitors. Undertaking activities on a global scale requires a proper distribution system which could take advantages of different transportation modes. Accordingly, the present paper addresses a location-routing problem on multimodal transportation network. The introduced problem follows four objectives simultaneously which form main contribution of the paper; determining multimodal routes between supplier and distribution centers, locating mode changing facilities, locating distribution centers, and determining product delivery tours from the distribution centers to retailers. An integer linear programming is presented for the problem, and a genetic algorithm with a new chromosome structure proposed to solve the problem. Proposed chromosome structure consists of two different parts for multimodal transportation and location-routing parts of the model. Based on published data in the literature, two numerical cases with different sizes generated and solved. Also, different cost scenarios designed to better analyze model and algorithm performance. Results show that algorithm can effectively solve large-size problems within a reasonable time which GAMS software failed to reach an optimal solution even within much longer times.

A model for distribution centers location-routing problem on a multimodal transportation network with a meta-heuristic solving approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fazayeli, Saeed; Eydi, Alireza; Kamalabadi, Isa Nakhai

2018-07-01

Nowadays, organizations have to compete with different competitors in regional, national and international levels, so they have to improve their competition capabilities to survive against competitors. Undertaking activities on a global scale requires a proper distribution system which could take advantages of different transportation modes. Accordingly, the present paper addresses a location-routing problem on multimodal transportation network. The introduced problem follows four objectives simultaneously which form main contribution of the paper; determining multimodal routes between supplier and distribution centers, locating mode changing facilities, locating distribution centers, and determining product delivery tours from the distribution centers to retailers. An integer linear programming is presented for the problem, and a genetic algorithm with a new chromosome structure proposed to solve the problem. Proposed chromosome structure consists of two different parts for multimodal transportation and location-routing parts of the model. Based on published data in the literature, two numerical cases with different sizes generated and solved. Also, different cost scenarios designed to better analyze model and algorithm performance. Results show that algorithm can effectively solve large-size problems within a reasonable time which GAMS software failed to reach an optimal solution even within much longer times.

Comparing physically-based and statistical landslide susceptibility model outputs - a case study from Lower Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canli, Ekrem; Thiebes, Benni; Petschko, Helene; Glade, Thomas

2015-04-01

By now there is a broad consensus that due to human-induced global change the frequency and magnitude of heavy precipitation events is expected to increase in certain parts of the world. Given the fact, that rainfall serves as the most common triggering agent for landslide initiation, also an increased landside activity can be expected there. Landslide occurrence is a globally spread phenomenon that clearly needs to be handled. The present and well known problems in modelling landslide susceptibility and hazard give uncertain results in the prediction. This includes the lack of a universal applicable modelling solution for adequately assessing landslide susceptibility (which can be seen as the relative indication of the spatial probability of landslide initiation). Generally speaking, there are three major approaches for performing landslide susceptibility analysis: heuristic, statistical and deterministic models, all with different assumptions, its distinctive data requirements and differently interpretable outcomes. Still, detailed comparison of resulting landslide susceptibility maps are rare. In this presentation, the susceptibility modelling outputs of a deterministic model (Stability INdex MAPping - SINMAP) and a statistical modelling approach (generalized additive model - GAM) are compared. SINMAP is an infinite slope stability model which requires parameterization of soil mechanical parameters. Modelling with the generalized additive model, which represents a non-linear extension of a generalized linear model, requires a high quality landslide inventory that serves as the dependent variable in the statistical approach. Both methods rely on topographical data derived from the DTM. The comparison has been carried out in a study area located in the district of Waidhofen/Ybbs in Lower Austria. For the whole district (ca. 132 km²), 1063 landslides have been mapped and partially used within the analysis and the validation of the model outputs. The respective susceptibility maps have been reclassified to contain three susceptibility classes each. The comparison of the susceptibility maps was performed on a grid cell basis. A match of the maps was observed for grid cells located in the same susceptibility class. In contrast, a mismatch or deviation was observed for locations with different assigned susceptibility classes (up to two classes' difference). Although the modelling approaches differ significantly, more than 70% of the pixels reveal a match in the same susceptibility class. A mismatch by two classes' difference occurred in less than 2% of all pixels. Although the result looks promising and strengthens the confidence in the susceptibility zonation for this area, some of the general drawbacks related to the respective approaches still have to be addressed in further detail. Future work is heading towards an integration of probabilistic aspects into deterministic modelling.

Computation of geometric representation of novel spectrophotometric methods used for the analysis of minor components in pharmaceutical preparations.

PubMed

Lotfy, Hayam M; Saleh, Sarah S; Hassan, Nagiba Y; Salem, Hesham

2015-01-01

Novel spectrophotometric methods were applied for the determination of the minor component tetryzoline HCl (TZH) in its ternary mixture with ofloxacin (OFX) and prednisolone acetate (PA) in the ratio of (1:5:7.5), and in its binary mixture with sodium cromoglicate (SCG) in the ratio of (1:80). The novel spectrophotometric methods determined the minor component (TZH) successfully in the two selected mixtures by computing the geometrical relationship of either standard addition or subtraction. The novel spectrophotometric methods are: geometrical amplitude modulation (GAM), geometrical induced amplitude modulation (GIAM), ratio H-point standard addition method (RHPSAM) and compensated area under the curve (CAUC). The proposed methods were successfully applied for the determination of the minor component TZH below its concentration range. The methods were validated as per ICH guidelines where accuracy, repeatability, inter-day precision and robustness were found to be within the acceptable limits. The results obtained from the proposed methods were statistically compared with official ones where no significant difference was observed. No difference was observed between the obtained results when compared to the reported HPLC method, which proved that the developed methods could be alternative to HPLC techniques in quality control laboratories. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

GAMBIT: A Parameterless Model-Based Evolutionary Algorithm for Mixed-Integer Problems.

PubMed

Sadowski, Krzysztof L; Thierens, Dirk; Bosman, Peter A N

2018-01-01

Learning and exploiting problem structure is one of the key challenges in optimization. This is especially important for black-box optimization (BBO) where prior structural knowledge of a problem is not available. Existing model-based Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs) are very efficient at learning structure in both the discrete, and in the continuous domain. In this article, discrete and continuous model-building mechanisms are integrated for the Mixed-Integer (MI) domain, comprising discrete and continuous variables. We revisit a recently introduced model-based evolutionary algorithm for the MI domain, the Genetic Algorithm for Model-Based mixed-Integer opTimization (GAMBIT). We extend GAMBIT with a parameterless scheme that allows for practical use of the algorithm without the need to explicitly specify any parameters. We furthermore contrast GAMBIT with other model-based alternatives. The ultimate goal of processing mixed dependences explicitly in GAMBIT is also addressed by introducing a new mechanism for the explicit exploitation of mixed dependences. We find that processing mixed dependences with this novel mechanism allows for more efficient optimization. We further contrast the parameterless GAMBIT with Mixed-Integer Evolution Strategies (MIES) and other state-of-the-art MI optimization algorithms from the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) commercial algorithm suite on problems with and without constraints, and show that GAMBIT is capable of solving problems where variable dependences prevent many algorithms from successfully optimizing them.

Impulsive Phase Transport. Chapter 3,

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-03-30

workshop series held at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, Maryland --- January 24-28. 1983 I AccOsSionr June 9-14. 1983 G--7i5 CRA&I and...resolved Intercosmos series ) were improving the quality of hard X-ray optical lines by the Sac Peak Vacuum Tower. Hard X- and measurements and extending the...usually obtained either from a series of broad band filter- gams at several widely spaced points in the spectrum (e.g., 1 Zirin and Neidig 1981) or from

Evaluation of 95 gpm Inductors for Aqueous Film Forming Foam,

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-04-30

AQUEOUS FILM FORMING FOAM BACKGROUND/INTRODUCTION Early History The use of Aqueous Film Forming Foam ( AFFF ...vadIdniybybok46141 SECURITY CLASSIFICATION~ OF THIS PAGE 11. TITL (Include Secuit Cuaif~los) EVALUATION 0F795 GPM INDUCTORS FOR AQUEOUS FILM FORMING ...AD-A141 242 EVALUATION OF 95 GPM INDUCORG SEOR AQUEOUS FIL FORMING 1/GAM U) HUGHES ASSOCI A F S NC KEN S INO ON M0AD A14 24 RN GIE ETAL 3 00PR

Energetic-particle-induced geodesic acoustic mode.

PubMed

Fu, G Y

2008-10-31

A new energetic particle-induced geodesic acoustic mode (EGAM) is shown to exist. The mode frequency and mode structure are determined nonperturbatively by energetic particle kinetic effects. In particular the EGAM frequency is found to be substantially lower than the standard GAM frequency. The radial mode width is determined by the energetic particle drift orbit width and can be fairly large for high energetic particle pressure and large safety factor. These results are consistent with the recent experimental observation of the beam-driven n=0 mode in DIII-D.

Clinical and Pathologic Remission of Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis with Serum-Derived Bovine Immunoglobulin Added to the Standard Treatment Regimen.

PubMed

Soriano, Rachelle A; Ramos-Soriano, Asuncion G

2017-01-01

Ulcerative colitis (UC) is a chronic inflammatory bowel disease that is particularly troublesome for pediatric patients, as current therapeutic options consist of biologic agents and steroids which alter the immune response and have the harmful side effect of leaving the patient more susceptible to opportunistic infections and eventual surgery. Another option for therapy exists in the form of serum-derived bovine immunoglobulin/protein isolate (SBI), the key ingredient in a medical food, EnteraGam®. The FDA has reviewed the safety of SBI and issued a no challenge letter to the generally recognized as safe (GRAS) findings for this medical food. The product also has no known food or drug interactions, no significant adverse effects, and no contraindications, save for beef allergy. SBI has been shown to induce clinical remission in adult populations and to decrease markers of inflammation in pediatric patients. Here, we present a detailed case of pediatric UC, including documentation of mucosal healing and decrease in pediatric UC activity index in a difficult to treat pediatric patient, after the addition of SBI to this patient's treatment regimen.

A U-shaped Association between Blood Pressure and Cognitive Impairment in Chinese Elderly

PubMed Central

Lv, Yue-Bin; Zhu, Peng-Fei; Yin, Zhao-Xue; Kraus, Virginia Byers; Threapleton, Diane; Chei, Choy-Lye; Brasher, Melanie Sereny; Zhang, Juan; Qian, Han-Zhu; Mao, Chen; Matchar, David Bruce; Luo, Jie-Si; Zeng, Yi; Shi, Xiao-Ming

2017-01-01

Objectives Higher or lower blood pressure may relate to cognitive impairment, while the relationship between blood pressure and cognitive impairment among the elderly is not well-studied. The study objective was to determine whether blood pressure is associated with cognitive impairment in the elderly, and, if so, to accurately describe the association. Design Cross-sectional data from the sixth wave of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) conducted in 2011 Setting Community-based setting in longevity areas in China Participants 7,144 Chinese elderly aged 65 years and older were included in the sample Measures Systolic blood pressures (SBP) and diastolic blood pressures (DBP) were measured, pulse pressure (PP) was calculated as (SBP)-(DBP) and mean arterial pressures (MAP) was calculated as 1/3(SBP) + 2/3(DBP). Cognitive function was assessed via a validated Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Results Based on the results of generalized additive models (GAMs), U-shaped associations were identified between cognitive impairment and SBP, DBP, PP and MAP. The cut-points at which risk for cognitive impairment (MMSE<24) was minimized were determined by quadratic models as 141 mmHg, 85 mmHg, 62 mmHg and 103 mmHg, respectively. In the logistic models, U-shaped associations remained for SBP, DBP, and MAP but not PP. Below the identified cut-points, each 1mmHg decrease in blood pressure corresponded to 0.7%, 1.1%, and 1.1% greater risk in the risk of cognitive impairment, respectively. Above the cut-points, each 1mmHg increase in blood pressure corresponded to 1.2%, 1.8%, and 2.1% greater risk of cognitive impairment for SBP, DBP and MAP, respectively. Conclusion A U-shaped association between blood pressure and cognitive function in an elderly Chinese population was found. Recognition of these instances is important identifying the high-risk population for cognitive impairment and to individualize blood pressure management for cognitive impairment prevention. PMID:28126139

Forecasts of swordfish (Xiphias gladius) and common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) off Chile under the A2 IPCC climate change scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Claudio; Yáñez, Eleuterio; Barbieri, María Angela; Bernal, Claudio; Aranis, Antonio

2015-05-01

Recent studies have demonstrated the effects of climate change on both oceanographic conditions and the relative abundance and distribution of fisheries resources. In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate change on swordfish (Xiphias gladius) and common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) fisheries using predictions of changes from global models (according to the NCAR model and IPCC emissions scenario A2), bioclimate envelope models and satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from high-resolution regional models for the simulation period 2015-2065. Predictions of SST from global climate models were regionalised using the Delta statistical downscaling technique. The results show an SST trend of 0.0196 °C per year in the study area, equivalent to 0.98 °C for the simulation horizon and for a high CO2 emission scenario (A2). The bioclimate envelope models were developed using historical (2001-2011) monthly environmental and fisheries data. These data included the local relative abundance index of fish catch per unit effort (CPUE), corresponding to the total catch (kg) by 1000 hooks in a 1° latitude × 1° longitude fishing grid for swordfish and to the total catch (ton) by hold capacity (100 m3) in a 10‧ latitude × 10‧ longitude grid for common sardine. The environmental data included temporal (month), spatial (latitude) and thermal conditions (SST). In the first step of the bioclimate modelling performed in this study, generalised additive models (GAMs) were used as an exploratory tool to identify the functional relationships between the environmental variables and CPUE. These relationships were then parameterised using general linear models (GLMs) to provide a robust forecasting tool. With this modelling approach, environmental variables explained 58.7% of the variation in the CPUE of swordfish and 60.6% of the variation in the CPUE of common sardine in the final GLMs. Using IDRISI GIS, these GLMs simulated monthly changes in the relative abundance and distribution of the studied species forced by changes in the regionalised SST projected by the NCAR model under the A2 emission scenario. The simulations predicted a slight decline of 6% (17 kg/1000 hooks) and 7% (3.8 ton/100 m3) for swordfish and common sardine, respectively, in the spatial mean of the potential relative abundance (CPUE) by 2065.

Impact of gamma rays on the Phaffia rhodozyma genome revealed by RAPD-PCR.

PubMed

Najafi, N; Hosseini, Ramin; Ahmadi, Ar

2011-12-01

Phaffia rhodozyma is a red yeast which produces astaxanthin as the major carotenoid pigment. Astaxanthin is thought to reduce the incidence of cancer and degenerative diseases in man. It also enhances the immune response and acts as a free-radical quencher, a precursor of vitamin A, or a pigment involved in the visual attraction of animals as mating partners. The impact of gamma irradiation was studied on the Phaffia rhodozyma genome. Ten mutant strains, designated Gam1-Gam10, were obtained using gamma irradiation. Ten decamer random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) primers were employed to assess genetic changes. Nine primers revealed scorable polymorphisms and a total of 95 band positions were scored; amongst which 38 bands (37.5%) were polymorphic. Primer F with 3 bands and primer J20 with 13 bands produced the lowest and the highest number of bands, respectively. Primer A16 produced the highest number of polymorphic bands (70% polymorphism) and primer F showed the lowest number of polymorphic bands (0% polymorphism). Genetic distances were calculated using Jaccard's coefficient and the UPGMA method. A dendrogram was created using SPSS (version 11.5) and the strains were clustered into four groups. RAPD markers could distinguish between the parental and the mutant strains of P. rhodozyma. RAPD technique showed that some changes had occurred in the genome of the mutated strains. This technique demonstrated the capability to differentiate between the parental and the mutant strains.

Decision Support System for Reservoir Management and Operation in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navar, D. A.

2016-12-01

Africa is currently experiencing a surge in dam construction for flood control, water supply and hydropower production, but ineffective reservoir management has caused problems in the region, such as water shortages, flooding and loss of potential hydropower generation. Our research aims to remedy ineffective reservoir management by developing a novel Decision Support System(DSS) to equip water managers with a technical planning tool based on the state of the art in hydrological sciences. The DSS incorporates a climate forecast model, a hydraulic model of the watershed, and an optimization model to effectively plan for the operation of a system of cascade large-scale reservoirs for hydropower production, while treating water supply and flood control as constraints. Our team will use the newly constructed hydropower plants in the Omo Gibe basin of Ethiopia as the test case. Using the basic HIDROTERM software developed in Brazil, the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) utilizes a combination of linear programing (LP) and non-linear programming (NLP) in conjunction with real time hydrologic and energy demand data to optimize the monthly and daily operations of the reservoir system. We compare the DSS model results with the current reservoir operating policy used by the water managers of that region. We also hope the DSS will eliminate the current dangers associated with the mismanagement of large scale water resources projects in Africa.

An Open Software Platform for Sharing Water Resource Models, Code and Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knox, Stephen; Meier, Philipp; Mohamed, Khaled; Korteling, Brett; Matrosov, Evgenii; Huskova, Ivana; Harou, Julien; Rosenberg, David; Tilmant, Amaury; Medellin-Azuara, Josue; Wicks, Jon

2016-04-01

The modelling of managed water resource systems requires new approaches in the face of increasing future uncertainty. Water resources management models, even if applied to diverse problem areas, use common approaches such as representing the problem as a network of nodes and links. We propose a data management software platform, called Hydra, that uses this commonality to allow multiple models using a node-link structure to be managed and run using a single software system. Hydra's user interface allows users to manage network topology and associated data. Hydra feeds this data directly into a model, importing from and exporting to different file formats using Apps. An App connects Hydra to a custom model, a modelling system such as GAMS or MATLAB or to different file formats such as MS Excel, CSV and ESRI Shapefiles. Hydra allows users to manage their data in a single, consistent place. Apps can be used to run domain-specific models and allow users to work with their own required file formats. The Hydra App Store offers a collaborative space where model developers can publish, review and comment on Apps, models and data. Example Apps and open-source libraries are available in a variety of languages (Python, Java and .NET). The App Store can act as a hub for water resource modellers to view and share Apps, models and data easily. This encourages an ecosystem of development using a shared platform, resulting in more model integration and potentially greater unity within resource modelling communities. www.hydraplatform.org www.hydraappstore.com

Public crowdsensing of heat waves by social media data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grasso, Valentina; Crisci, Alfonso; Morabito, Marco; Nesi, Paolo; Pantaleo, Gianni

2017-07-01

Investigating on society-related heat wave hazards is a global issue concerning the people health. In the last two decades, Europe experienced several severe heat wave episodes with catastrophic effects in term of human mortality (2003, 2010 and 2015). Recent climate investigations confirm that this threat will represent a key issue for the resiliency of urban communities in next decades. Several important mitigation actions (Heat-Health Action Plans) against heat hazards have been already implemented in some WHO (World Health Organization) European region member states to encourage preparedness and response to extreme heat events. Nowadays, social media (SM) offer new opportunities to indirectly measure the impact of heat waves on society. Using the crowdsensing concept, a micro-blogging platform like Twitter may be used as a distributed network of mobile sensors that react to external events by exchanging messages (tweets). This work presents a preliminary analysis of tweets related to heat waves that occurred in Italy in summer 2015. Using TwitterVigilance dashboard, developed by the University of Florence, a sample of tweets related to heat conditions was retrieved, stored and analyzed for main features. Significant associations between the daily increase in tweets and extreme temperatures were presented. The daily volume of Twitter users and messages revealed to be a valuable indicator of heat wave impact at the local level, in urban areas. Furthermore, with the help of Generalized Additive Model (GAM), the volume of tweets in certain locations has been used to estimate thresholds of local discomfort conditions. These city-specific thresholds are the result of dissimilar climatic conditions and risk cultures.

The association between ambient inhalable particulate matter and the disease burden of respiratory disease: An ecological study based on ten-year time series data in Tianjin, China.

PubMed

Zeng, Qiang; Wu, Ziting; Jiang, Guohong; Wu, Xiaoyin; Li, Pei; Ni, Yang; Xiong, Xiuqin; Wang, Xinyan; Parasat; Li, Guoxing; Pan, Xiaochuan

2017-08-01

There is limited evidence available worldwide about the quantitative relationship between particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 10µm (PM 10 ) and years of life lost (YLL) caused by respiratory diseases (RD), especially regarding long-term time series data. We investigated the quantitative exposure-response association between PM 10 and the disease burden of RD. We obtained the daily concentration of ambient pollutants (PM 10 , nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide), temperature and relative humidity data, as well as the death monitoring data from 2001 to 2010 in Tianjin. Then, a time series database was built after the daily YLL of RD was calculated. We applied a generalized additive model (GAM) to estimate the burden of PM 10 on daily YLL of RD and to determine the effect (the increase of daily YLL) of every 10μg/m 3 increase in PM 10 on health. We found that every 10μg/m 3 increase in PM 10 was associated with the greatest increase in YLL of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.45, 1.23) years at a 2-day (current day and previous day, lag01) moving average PM 10 concentration for RD. The association between PM 10 and YLL was stronger in females and the elderly (≥65 years of age). The association between PM 10 and YLL of RD differed according to district. These findings also provide new epidemiological evidence for respiratory disease prevention. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of meteorological variables on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in children: a time-series analysis in Guangzhou, China.

PubMed

Huang, Yong; Deng, Te; Yu, Shicheng; Gu, Jing; Huang, Cunrui; Xiao, Gexin; Hao, Yuantao

2013-03-13

Over the last decade, major outbreaks of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) have been reported in Asian countries, resulting in thousands of deaths among children. However, less is known regarding the effect of meteorological variables on the incidence of HFMD in children. This study aims at quantifying the relationship between meteorological variables and the incidence of HFMD among children in Guangzhou, China. The association between weekly HFMD cases in children aged <15 years and meteorological variables in Guangzhou from 2008 to 2011 were analyzed using the generalized additive model (GAM) and time-series method, after controlling for long-term trend and seasonality, holiday effects, influenza period and delayed effects. Temperature and relative humidity with one week lag were significantly associated with HFMD infection among children. We found that a 1°C increase in temperature led to an increase of 1.86% (95% CI: 0.92, 2.81%) in the weekly number of cases in the 0-14 years age group. A one percent increase in relative humidity may lead to an increase of 1.42% (95% CI: 0.97, 1.87%) in the weekly number of cases in the 0-14 years age group. This study provides quantitative evidence that the incidence of HFMD in children was associated with high average temperature and high relative humidity. The one-week delay in the effects of temperature and relative humidity on HFMD is consistent with the enterovirus incubation period and the potential time lag between onset of children's sickness and parental awareness and response.

Enhanced Antitumorigenic Effects in Glioblastoma on Double Targeting of Pleiotrophin and Its Receptor ALK1

PubMed Central

Grzelinski, Marius; Steinberg, Florian; Martens, Tobias; Czubayko, Frank; Lamszus, Katrin; Aigner, Achim

2009-01-01

In adults, glioblastomas are the most lethal and most frequent malignant brain tumors, and the poor prognosis despite aggressive treatment indicates the need to establish novel targets for molecular intervention. The secreted growth factor pleiotrophin (PTN, HB-GAM, HBNF, OSF-1) shows mitogenic, chemotactic, and transforming activity. Whereas PTN expression is tightly regulated during embryogenesis and is very limited in normal adult tissues, a marked PTN up-regulation is seen in tumors including glioblastomas. Likewise, the PTN receptor anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) has been shown previously to be upregulated and functionally relevant in glioblastoma. In this study, we explore the antitumorigenic effects of the simultaneous ribozyme-mediated knockdown of both receptor and ligand. Various glioblastoma cell lines are analyzed for PTN and ALK expression. Beyond the individual efficacies of several specific ribozymes against PTN or ALK, respectively, antiproliferative and proapoptotic effects of a single gene targeting approach are strongly enhanced on double knockdown of both genes in vitro. More importantly, this results in the abolishment of tumor growth in an in vivo subcutaneous tumor xenograft model. Finally, the analysis of various downstream signaling pathways by antibody arrays reveals a distinct pattern of changes in the activation of signal transduction molecules on PTN/ALK double knockdown. Beyond the already known ones, it identifies additional pathways relevant for PTN/ALK signaling. We conclude that double targeting of PTN and ALK leads to enhanced antitumorigenic effects over single knockdown approaches, which offers novel therapeutic options owing to increased efficacy also after prolonged knockdown. PMID:19177199

Analysis of the interests of Google users on toothache information.

PubMed

Lotto, Matheus; Ayala Aguirre, Patricia Estefania; Rios, Daniela; Andrade Moreira Machado, Maria Aparecida; Pereira Cruvinel, Agnes Fátima; Cruvinel, Thiago

2017-01-01

The knowledge on health interests of a given population of Internet users might contribute to the increase of evidence on community's dental needs, and consequently, to the improvement of public health planning. The frequency of searches for specific issues on Google can be analyzed by the application of Google Trends. In this study, we aimed to characterize the interests on toothache information of Google users from the United States, United Kingdom, Australia and Brazil. The monthly variation of relative search volume (RSV) and the lists of main toothache-related queries were determined from January 2004 through April 2016 using Google Trends. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting models were developed to determine predictive RSV values for toothache for additional 12 months. Autocorrelation plots and general additive model (GAM) were applied to determine trends and seasonality in RSV curves. Through linear regression models, we assessed the association between the variation of annual means of RSV values and national statistics for toothache in the U.S. and U.K. Subsequently, the distribution of main queries according to the identification of endodontic pain, type of searching information, and the interest in self-management of toothache was evaluated for the four countries. The autocorrelation plots showed patterns of non-stationary time series. The monthly variation influenced the data of the U.S. and U.K., with the higher RSV values found respectively in January/July and December. Also, the interest on toothache in the U.K. increases in the second semester and in the fourth quarter, especially in December. Additionally, an annual variation affected significantly all time series, with the increment of RSV means over the years, varying from 265% in the U.S. to 745% in Brazil. In parallel, the increments in RSV values were also observed in all predictive curves. The annual variation of observed and fitted RSV values was directly associated with the increase of toothache visits in the U.S. and urgent dental treatments in the U.K. Moreover, the queries typed on Google were markedly linked to searches on endodontic pain information, especially in Brazil, where the residents usually searched for relief and/or self-management of pain. Therefore, these findings indicate an increasing interest of Google users on toothache-related topics, regardless of country and season. The Internet activity can be used by policy makers as a complementary source of data for the development and implementation of strategies to control and prevent toothache complications.

A Spatial Decision Support System to incorporate hydro-economic modeling results in the management of water resources under decentralized institutional arrangements in a semiarid reservoir region in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moraes, M. G. A.; Souza da Silva, G.; Siegmund-Schultze, M.

2016-12-01

The integration of economic and hydrological components in models, aimed to support evaluating alternatives of water allocation policies, is promising, though, challenging. Worldwide, these models have been used primarily in academia, and so far seldom by water managers for practical purposes. Ideally, the models should be available through a Decision Support System. The São Francisco River Basin in Northeast of Brazil has around 48% of its area in a semi-arid region. Irrigation and public water supply are the primary water use sectors, along with hydropower utilization. The water for electricity generation is stored in two large reservoirs, built 30 to 50 years ago under the premise of regulating flows for hydropower and controlling floods. Since 20 years, however, the law stipulates the multiple uses paradigm in a participatory and decentralized way. So far, only few rules laid down. Studies revealed that most of the respective institutions still needed to update their routines to the new paradigm.A hydro-economic model was developed and applied in order to determine the economically optimal water allocation of main users in that semiarid reservoir region. In order to make this model available to the decision makers, a minimum required is some form of manipulating data entry and output as well as some graphical interfaces. We propose a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) with dedicated hydro-economic modules in a web-based Geographic Information System (GIS) environment for integrated water resource management. The open model platform will include geoprocessing tasks and water user related data management. The hydro-economic geoprocessing will link to generic optimization modeling systems, such as EXCEL Solver, GAMS and MATLAB. The institutions that are deliberating or deciding over water allocation at different scales could use the generated information on potential economic benefits as a transparent basis for discussion. In addition, they can use the SDSS to include constraints into the model in order to account for further objectives, such as preference given to specific uses or timing of uses. This information, and corresponding policies, can foster enhanced economic welfare and sustainable water use, as well as help to solve water use conflicts.

A Spatial Decision Support System to incorporate hydro-economic modeling results in the management of water resources under decentralized institutional arrangements in a semiarid reservoir region in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alcoforado de Moraes, Márcia; Silva, Gerald; Siegmund-Schultze, Marianna

2017-04-01

The integration of economic and hydrological components in models, aimed to support evaluating alternatives of water allocation policies, is promising, though, challenging. Worldwide, these models have been used primarily in academia, and so far seldom by water managers for practical purposes. Ideally, the models should be available through a Decision Support System. The São Francisco River Basin in Northeast of Brazil has around 48% of its area in a semi-arid region. Irrigation and public water supply are the primary water use sectors, along with hydropower utilization. The water for electricity generation is stored in two large reservoirs, built 30 to 50 years ago under the premise of regulating flows for hydropower and controlling floods. Since 20 years, however, the law stipulates the multiple uses paradigm in a participatory and decentralized way. So far, only few rules laid down. Studies revealed that most of the respective institutions still needed to update their routines to the new paradigm. A hydro-economic model was developed and applied in order to determine the economically optimal water allocation of main users in that semiarid reservoir region. In order to make this model available to the decision makers, a minimum required is some form of manipulating data entry and output as well as some graphical interfaces. We propose and present the first features of a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) with dedicated hydro-economic modules in a web-based Geographic Information System (GIS) environment for integrated water resource management. The open model platform should include geoprocessing tasks and water user related data management. The hydro-economic geoprocessing will link to generic optimization modeling systems, such as EXCEL Solver, GAMS and MATLAB. The institutions are deliberating or deciding over water allocation at different scales could use the generated information on potential economic benefits as a transparent basis for discussion. In addition, they can use the SDSS to include constraints into the model in order to account for further objectives, such as preference given to specific uses or timing of uses. This information, and corresponding policies, can foster enhanced economic welfare and sustainable water use, as well as help to solve water use conflicts.

Leadership Development Wargame Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-11-10

rses o f actio n...in ach ievin g a m in o r o b jective. D evelo p ed tru st w ith m u ltip le p layers th ro u gh th e co u rse o f th e gam e. Is firm , fair...s. U sed m u ltip le ap p ro ach es w h en d evelo p in g co u rses o f actio n . So u n d Ju d gm e n t En gaged in th o u gh tfu l

Regulation of Breast Carcinoma Growth and Neovascularization by Novel Peptide Sequences in Thromospondin

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-10-01

containing 10% FCS. complete medium. Lysis buffer [0.5 ml; containing 5 m guanidine thiocyanate, 25 Okadaic acid, TPA, fumonisin B1, herbimycin A, and sodium...promote cell adhesion, were used instead of free peptides in the herbimycin, fumonisin BI, or TPA on proliferation, the reagents were current studies...stripes), or 25 nam fumonisin B1 (0i). The indicated peptides or proteins (4 gaM 407f or 450f, 50 nM TSP1, and 0.4 nam Fig. 8. Endothelial cell density

System-of-Systems Approach for Integrated Energy Systems Modeling and Simulation: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mittal, Saurabh; Ruth, Mark; Pratt, Annabelle

Today’s electricity grid is the most complex system ever built—and the future grid is likely to be even more complex because it will incorporate distributed energy resources (DERs) such as wind, solar, and various other sources of generation and energy storage. The complexity is further augmented by the possible evolution to new retail market structures that provide incentives to owners of DERs to support the grid. To understand and test new retail market structures and technologies such as DERs, demand-response equipment, and energy management systems while providing reliable electricity to all customers, an Integrated Energy System Model (IESM) is beingmore » developed at NREL. The IESM is composed of a power flow simulator (GridLAB-D), home energy management systems implemented using GAMS/Pyomo, a market layer, and hardware-in-the-loop simulation (testing appliances such as HVAC, dishwasher, etc.). The IESM is a system-of-systems (SoS) simulator wherein the constituent systems are brought together in a virtual testbed. We will describe an SoS approach for developing a distributed simulation environment. We will elaborate on the methodology and the control mechanisms used in the co-simulation illustrated by a case study.« less

Inter-annual variability in spring abundance of adult Calanus finmarchicus from the overwintering population in the southeastern Norwegian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dupont, Nicolas; Bagøien, Espen; Melle, Webjørn

2017-03-01

Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant copepod species in the Norwegian Sea, where it plays a key role in the ecosystem by transferring energy from primary producers to higher trophic levels. This paper analyses a 17-year time series, 1996-2012, on C. finmarchicus collected within the Atlantic Water mass along the Svinøy transect in the southeastern Norwegian Sea. We use the spring abundance of adult as a proxy for the size of C. finmarchicus' overwintered population. The inter-annual trend in spring abundance of adult C. finmarchicus in the 200-0 m depth-stratum is assessed while accounting for spring population development to the adult stage represented by day of year for sampling, inter-annual changes in timing of population development, and spatial differences. For the most oceanic stations, a significant inter-annual trend in spring abundance of adult C. finmarchicus was revealed using generalized additive models (GAM). This trend primarily consists in an increase prior to year 2000 and a decrease between years 2000 and ca. 2011. For the stations closer to the coast, the identified inter-annual trend is a decrease during a longer period from the late 90s until ca. 2011. From 2000 to 2011, our estimates suggest a 50% decrease for the most oceanic stations, and as much as an 81% decrease for the stations closer to the coast. In addition the results suggest a consistent change in phenology over the years and the stations. The predicted spring peak of overwintered adult population abundance is suggested to become shorter by 3 days, and the predicted maximum of abundance to take place 4 days earlier over the 17 years of the time-series. The results highlight significant changes in intensity and timing of the overwintered population of a key zooplankton species in the Norwegian Sea that may have important implications on the scale of an entire ecosystem.

The association between consecutive days' heat wave and cardiovascular disease mortality in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Yin, Qian; Wang, Jinfeng

2017-02-23

Although many studies have examined the effects of heat waves on the excess mortality risk (ER) posed by cardiovascular disease (CVD), scant attention has been paid to the effects of various combinations of differing heat wave temperatures and durations. We investigated such effects in Beijing, a city of over 20 million residents. A generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the ER of consecutive days' exposure to extreme high temperatures. A key finding was that when extremely high temperatures occur continuously, at varying temperature thresholds and durations, the adverse effects on CVD mortality vary significantly. The longer the heat wave lasts, the greater the mortality risk is. When the daily maximum temperature exceeded 35 °C from the fourth day onward, the ER attributed to consecutive days' high temperature exposure saw an increase to about 10% (p < 0.05), and at the fifth day, the ER even reached 51%. For the thresholds of 32 °C, 33 °C, and 34 °C, from the fifth day onward, the ER also rose sharply (16, 29, and 31%, respectively; p < 0.05). In addition, extreme high temperatures appeared to contribute to a higher proportion of CVD deaths among elderly persons, females and outdoor workers. When the daily maximum temperature was higher than 33 °C from the tenth consecutive day onward, the ER of CVD death among these groups was 94, 104 and 149%, respectively (p < 0.05), which is considerably higher than the ER for the overall population (87%; p < 0.05). The results of this study may assist governments in setting standards for heat waves, creating more accurate heat alerts, and taking measures to prevent or reduce temperature-related deaths, especially against the backdrop of global warming.

A reproducible and scalable procedure for preparing bacterial extracts for cell-free protein synthesis.

PubMed

Katsura, Kazushige; Matsuda, Takayoshi; Tomabechi, Yuri; Yonemochi, Mayumi; Hanada, Kazuharu; Ohsawa, Noboru; Sakamoto, Kensaku; Takemoto, Chie; Shirouzu, Mikako

2017-11-01

Cell-free protein synthesis is a useful method for preparing proteins for functional or structural analyses. However, batch-to-batch variability with regard to protein synthesis activity remains a problem for large-scale production of cell extract in the laboratory. To address this issue, we have developed a novel procedure for large-scale preparation of bacterial cell extract with high protein synthesis activity. The developed procedure comprises cell cultivation using a fermentor, harvesting and washing of cells by tangential flow filtration, cell disruption with high-pressure homogenizer and continuous diafiltration. By optimizing and combining these methods, ∼100 ml of the cell extract was prepared from 150 g of Escherichia coli cells. The protein synthesis activities, defined as the yield of protein per unit of absorbance at 260 nm of the cell extract, were shown to be reproducible, and the average activity of several batches was twice that obtained using a previously reported method. In addition, combinatorial use of the high-pressure homogenizer and diafiltration increased the scalability, indicating that the cell concentration at disruption varies from 0.04 to 1 g/ml. Furthermore, addition of Gam protein and examinations of the N-terminal sequence rendered the extract prepared here useful for rapid screening with linear DNA templates. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Japanese Biochemical Society. All rights reserved.

PID feedback controller used as a tactical asset allocation technique: The G.A.M. model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gandolfi, G.; Sabatini, A.; Rossolini, M.

2007-09-01

The objective of this paper is to illustrate a tactical asset allocation technique utilizing the PID controller. The proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller is widely applied in most industrial processes; it has been successfully used for over 50 years and it is used by more than 95% of the plants processes. It is a robust and easily understood algorithm that can provide excellent control performance in spite of the diverse dynamic characteristics of the process plant. In finance, the process plant, controlled by the PID controller, can be represented by financial market assets forming a portfolio. More specifically, in the present work, the plant is represented by a risk-adjusted return variable. Money and portfolio managers’ main target is to achieve a relevant risk-adjusted return in their managing activities. In literature and in the financial industry business, numerous kinds of return/risk ratios are commonly studied and used. The aim of this work is to perform a tactical asset allocation technique consisting in the optimization of risk adjusted return by means of asset allocation methodologies based on the PID model-free feedback control modeling procedure. The process plant does not need to be mathematically modeled: the PID control action lies in altering the portfolio asset weights, according to the PID algorithm and its parameters, Ziegler-and-Nichols-tuned, in order to approach the desired portfolio risk-adjusted return efficiently.

Development of standard operating procedures of Habbe Shifa: A polyherbal Unani formulation.

PubMed

Tarannum, Asira; Shamsi, Shariq; Zaman, Roohi

2013-07-01

Unani medicines are being used since antiquity. However, in spite of their efficacy, they have been widely criticized due to lack of standardization and poor quality presentation. For this reason, application of good manufacturing practices and development of standard operating procedures (SOPs) in the manufacture of herbal medicines became an essential tool to assure their quality. Therefore, the objective of the study was to develop the SOP of Habbe Shifa (HS) regarding the particle size (PS), binder, temperature of drying, and duration of drying. In this study, 24 batches of HS were prepared according to the instructions given in formulary to develop SOP. Three particle sizes (i.e., 80, 100, and 120 No. Mesh sieve), were taken for preparation of pills. Water and Samaghe Arabi (Gum Acacia mucilage [GAM]) were used as binder for preparing the lubdi (mass) in different batches. Different temperature and duration of drying were used to dry the pills in hot air oven to get satisfactory results. All the batches were assessed three times for hardness, friability, and disintegration time and mean regarded as standard parameter value. The batch with 150 μm PS (100 mesh sieve), 5% w/w GAM used as a binder, dried at 90°C for 120 min showed hardness 3.50 ± 0.00 kg/cm, friability 0.02 ± 0.003%, and disintegration time 25.00 ± 0.57 min, which showed most appropriate result among all batches and considered as final batch. Its SOP may be used for future reference which can help in setting up regulatory limit to assure the quality of Unani medicines.

Brain SPECT scans in students with specific learning disability: Preliminary results.

PubMed

Karande, S; Deshmukh, N; Rangarajan, V; Agrawal, A; Sholapurwala, R

2018-06-08

Brain single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) assesses brain function through measurement of regional cerebral blood flow. This study was conducted to assess whether students with newly diagnosed specific learning disability (SpLD) show any abnormalities in cerebral cortex perfusion. Cross-sectional single-arm pilot study in two tertiary care hospitals. Nine students with SpLD were enrolled. Brain SPECT scan was done twice in each student. For the first or "baseline" scan, the student was first made to sit with eyes open in a quiet, dimly lit room for a period of 30-40 min and then injected intravenously with 20 mCi of 99mTc-ECD. An hour later, "baseline scan" was conducted. After a minimum gap of 4 days, a second or "test scan" was conducted, wherein the student performed an age-appropriate curriculum-based test for a period of 30-40 min to activate the areas in central nervous system related to learning before being injected with 20 mCi of 99mTc-ECD. Cerebral cortex perfusion at rest and after activation in each student was compared qualitatively by visual analysis and quantitatively using NeuroGam TM software. Visual analysis showed reduction in regional blood flow in temporoparietal areas in both "baseline" and "test" scans. However, when normalization was attempted and comparison done by Talairach analysis using NeuroGam software, no statistically significant change in regional perfusion in temporoparietal areas was appreciated. Brain SPECT scan may serve as a robust tool to identify changes in regional brain perfusion in students with SpLD.

In vitro antimicrobial activity of benzoyl peroxide against Propionibacterium acnes assessed by a novel susceptibility testing method.

PubMed

Okamoto, Kazuaki; Ikeda, Fumiaki; Kanayama, Shoji; Nakajima, Akiko; Matsumoto, Tatsumi; Ishii, Ritsuko; Umehara, Masatoshi; Gotoh, Naomasa; Hayashi, Naoki; Iyoda, Takako; Matsuzaki, Kaoru; Matsumoto, Satoru; Kawashima, Makoto

2016-06-01

Benzoyl peroxide (BPO), a therapeutic agent for acne vulgaris, was assessed for in vitro antimicrobial activity against Propionibacterium acnes using a novel broth microdilution testing that improved BPO solubility. We searched for a suitable culture medium to measure the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of BPO against P. acnes and finally found the Gifu anaerobic medium (GAM) broth supplemented with 0.1(v/v)% glycerol and 2(v/v)% Tween 80, in which BPO dissolved up to 1250 μg/mL and P. acnes grew well. The MICs and minimum bactericidal concentrations (MBCs) of BPO against 44 clinical isolates of P. acnes collected from Japanese patients with acne vulgaris were determined by our testing method using the supplemented GAM broth. The MICs of BPO were 128 or 256 μg/mL against all isolates of P. acnes regardless of susceptibility to nadifloxacin or clindamycin. The MBCs of BPO were also 128 or 256 μg/mL against the same isolates. Moreover, BPO at the MIC showed a rapid bactericidal activity against P. acnes ATCC11827 in time-kill assay. In conclusion, we could develop a novel assay for the MIC and MBC determinations of BPO against P. acnes, which is reliable and reproducible as a broth microdilution testing and the present results suggest that BPO has a potent bactericidal activity against P. acnes. Copyright © 2016 Japanese Society of Chemotherapy and The Japanese Association for Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Addressing Hydro-economic Modeling Limitations - A Limited Foresight Sacramento Valley Model and an Open-source Modeling Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harou, J. J.; Hansen, K. M.

2008-12-01

Increased scarcity of world water resources is inevitable given the limited supply and increased human pressures. The idea that "some scarcity is optimal" must be accepted for rational resource use and infrastructure management decisions to be made. Hydro-economic systems models are unique at representing the overlap of economic drivers, socio-political forces and distributed water resource systems. They demonstrate the tangible benefits of cooperation and integrated flexible system management. Further improvement of models, quality control practices and software will be needed for these academic policy tools to become accepted into mainstream water resource practice. Promising features include: calibration methods, limited foresight optimization formulations, linked simulation-optimization approaches (e.g. embedding pre-existing calibrated simulation models), spatial groundwater models, stream-aquifer interactions and stream routing, etc.. Conventional user-friendly decision support systems helped spread simulation models on a massive scale. Hydro-economic models must also find a means to facilitate construction, distribution and use. Some of these issues and model features are illustrated with a hydro-economic optimization model of the Sacramento Valley. Carry-over storage value functions are used to limit hydrologic foresight of the multi- period optimization model. Pumping costs are included in the formulation by tracking regional piezometric head of groundwater sub-basins. To help build and maintain this type of network model, an open-source water management modeling software platform is described and initial project work is discussed. The objective is to generically facilitate the connection of models, such as those developed in a modeling environment (GAMS, MatLab, Octave, "), to a geographic user interface (drag and drop node-link network) and a database (topology, parameters and time series). These features aim to incrementally move hydro- economic models in the direction of more practical implementation.

Large Scale Multi-area Static/Dynamic Economic Dispatch using Nature Inspired Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandit, Manjaree; Jain, Kalpana; Dubey, Hari Mohan; Singh, Rameshwar

2017-04-01

Economic dispatch (ED) ensures that the generation allocation to the power units is carried out such that the total fuel cost is minimized and all the operating equality/inequality constraints are satisfied. Classical ED does not take transmission constraints into consideration, but in the present restructured power systems the tie-line limits play a very important role in deciding operational policies. ED is a dynamic problem which is performed on-line in the central load dispatch centre with changing load scenarios. The dynamic multi-area ED (MAED) problem is more complex due to the additional tie-line, ramp-rate and area-wise power balance constraints. Nature inspired (NI) heuristic optimization methods are gaining popularity over the traditional methods for complex problems. This work presents the modified particle swarm optimization (PSO) based techniques where parameter automation is effectively used for improving the search efficiency by avoiding stagnation to a sub-optimal result. This work validates the performance of the PSO variants with traditional solver GAMS for single as well as multi-area economic dispatch (MAED) on three test cases of a large 140-unit standard test system having complex constraints.

Effect of ambient temperature on emergency department visits in Shanghai, China: a time series study.

PubMed

Zhang, Yue; Yan, Chenyang; Kan, Haidong; Cao, Junshan; Peng, Li; Xu, Jianming; Wang, Weibing

2014-11-25

Many studies have examined the association between ambient temperature and mortality. However, less evidence is available on the temperature effects on gender- and age-specific emergency department visits, especially in developing countries. In this study, we examined the short-term effects of daily ambient temperature on emergency department visits (ED visits) in Shanghai. Daily ED visits and daily ambient temperatures between January 2006 and December 2011 were analyzed. After controlling for secular and seasonal trends, weather, air pollution and other confounding factors, a Poisson generalized additive model (GAM) was used to examine the associations between ambient temperature and gender- and age-specific ED visits. A moving average lag model was used to evaluate the lag effects of temperature on ED visits. Low temperature was associated with an overall 2.76% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.73 to 3.80) increase in ED visits per 1°C decrease in temperature at Lag1 day, 2.03% (95% CI: 1.04 to 3.03) and 2.45% (95% CI: 1.40 to 3.52) for males and females. High temperature resulted in an overall 1.78% (95% CI: 1.05 to 2.51) increase in ED visits per 1°C increase in temperature on the same day, 1.81% (95% CI: 1.08 to 2.54) among males and 1.75% (95% CI: 1.03 to 2.49) among females. The cold effect appeared to be more acute among younger people aged <45 years, whereas the effects were consistent on individuals aged ≥65 years. In contrast, the effects of high temperature were relatively consistent over all age groups. These findings suggest a significant association between ambient temperature and ED visits in Shanghai. Both cold and hot temperatures increased the relative risk of ED visits. This knowledge has the potential to advance prevention efforts targeting weather-sensitive conditions.

Dynamic ecological observations from satellites inform aerobiology of allergenic grass pollen.

PubMed

Devadas, Rakhesh; Huete, Alfredo R; Vicendese, Don; Erbas, Bircan; Beggs, Paul J; Medek, Danielle; Haberle, Simon G; Newnham, Rewi M; Johnston, Fay H; Jaggard, Alison K; Campbell, Bradley; Burton, Pamela K; Katelaris, Constance H; Newbigin, Ed; Thibaudon, Michel; Davies, Janet M

2018-08-15

Allergic diseases, including respiratory conditions of allergic rhinitis (hay fever) and asthma, affect up to 500 million people worldwide. Grass pollen are one major source of aeroallergens globally. Pollen forecast methods are generally site-based and rely on empirical meteorological relationships and/or the use of labour-intensive pollen collection traps that are restricted to sparse sampling locations. The spatial and temporal dynamics of the grass pollen sources themselves, however, have received less attention. Here we utilised a consistent set of MODIS satellite measures of grass cover and seasonal greenness (EVI) over five contrasting urban environments, located in Northern (France) and Southern Hemispheres (Australia), to evaluate their utility for predicting airborne grass pollen concentrations. Strongly seasonal and pronounced pollinating periods, synchronous with satellite measures of grass cover greenness, were found at the higher latitude temperate sites in France (46-50° N. Lat.), with peak pollen activity lagging peak greenness, on average by 2-3weeks. In contrast, the Australian sites (34-38° S. Lat.) displayed pollinating periods that were less synchronous with satellite greenness measures as peak pollen concentrations lagged peak greenness by as much as 4 to 7weeks. The Australian sites exhibited much higher spatial and inter-annual variations compared to the French sites and at the Sydney site, broader and multiple peaks in both pollen concentrations and greenness data coincided with flowering of more diverse grasses including subtropical species. Utilising generalised additive models (GAMs) we found the satellite greenness data of grass cover areas explained 80-90% of airborne grass pollen concentrations across the three French sites (p<0.001) and accounted for 34 to 76% of grass pollen variations over the two sites in Australia (p<0.05). Our results demonstrate the potential of satellite sensing to augment forecast models of grass pollen aerobiology as a tool to reduce the health and socioeconomic burden of pollen-sensitive allergic diseases. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Holocene carbon dynamics at the forest-steppe ecotone of southern Siberia.

PubMed

Mackay, Anson William; Seddon, Alistair W R; Leng, Melanie J; Heumann, Georg; Morley, David W; Piotrowska, Natalia; Rioual, Patrick; Roberts, Sarah; Swann, George E A

2017-05-01

The forest-steppe ecotone in southern Siberia is highly sensitive to climate change; global warming is expected to push the ecotone northwards, at the same time resulting in degradation of the underlying permafrost. To gain a deeper understanding of long-term forest-steppe carbon dynamics, we use a highly resolved, multiproxy, palaeolimnological approach, based on sediment records from Lake Baikal. We reconstruct proxies that are relevant to understanding carbon dynamics including carbon mass accumulation rates (CMAR; g C m -2  yr -1 ) and isotope composition of organic matter (δ 13 C TOC ). Forest-steppe dynamics were reconstructed using pollen, and diatom records provided measures of primary production from near- and off-shore communities. We used a generalized additive model (GAM) to identify significant change points in temporal series, and by applying generalized linear least-squares regression modelling to components of the multiproxy data, we address (1) What factors influence carbon dynamics during early Holocene warming and late Holocene cooling? (2) How did carbon dynamics respond to abrupt sub-Milankovitch scale events? and (3) What is the Holocene carbon storage budget for Lake Baikal. CMAR values range between 2.8 and 12.5 g C m -2  yr -1 . Peak burial rates (and greatest variability) occurred during the early Holocene, associated with melting permafrost and retreating glaciers, while lowest burial rates occurred during the neoglacial. Significant shifts in carbon dynamics at 10.3, 4.1 and 2.8 kyr bp provide compelling evidence for the sensitivity of the region to sub-Milankovitch drivers of climate change. We estimate that 1.03 Pg C was buried in Lake Baikal sediments during the Holocene, almost one-quarter of which was buried during the early Holocene alone. Combined, our results highlight the importance of understanding the close linkages between carbon cycling and hydrological processes, not just temperatures, in southern Siberian environments. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impact of social inequalities at birth on the longevity of children born 1914–1916: A cohort study

PubMed Central

Le Fur, Sophie; Bougnères, Pierre; Valleron, Alain-Jacques

2017-01-01

Background Testing whether familial socioeconomic status (SES) in childhood is a predictor of mortality has rarely been done on historical cohorts. Methods The birth certificates of 4,805 individuals born 1914–1916 in 16 districts of the Paris region were retrieved. The handwritten information provided the occupation of parents, the legitimacy status, life events (e.g. marriage, divorce), and the precise date of death when after 1945 (i.e. age 31 years (y) in the cohort). We used the median age at death (MAD) as a global measure of mortality, then studied separately survival to and after 31 y. Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE), Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and mixed effect Cox models were used. Results MAD showed large variations according to paternal occupation. The lowest MAD in both sexes was that of workers’ children: it was 56.3 y (95% CI: [48.6–62.7]) in men and 67.4 y (95% CI: [60.8–72.7]) in women, respectively (95% CI: 13.4 y [5.7–21.3]) and 12.3 y (95% CI: [4.0–19.2]) below the highest MAD attained. MAD experienced by illegitimate children was 18.9 y (95% CI: [13.3–32.3]) shorter than of legitimate children. The multivariate analysis revealed that in both sexes survival to age 31 y was predicted independently by legitimacy and paternal occupation. Paternal occupation was found significantly associated with mortality after age 31 y in females only: accordingly difference in life expectancy at age 31 y was 4.4 y (95% CI: [1.2–7.6]) between upper class and workers’ daughters. Conclusions Paternal occupation and legitimacy status were strong predictors of offspring longevity in this one-century historical cohort born during World War One. PMID:29036185

Analytical collisionless damping rate of geodesic acoustic mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, H.; Xu, X. Q.

2016-10-01

Collisionless damping of geodesic acoustic mode (GAM) is analytically investigated by considering the finite-orbit-width (FOW) resonance effect to the 3rd order in the gyro-kinetic equations. A concise and transparent expression for the damping rate is presented for the first time. Good agreement is found between the analytical damping rate and the previous TEMPEST simulation result (Xu 2008 et al Phys. Rev. Lett. 100 215001) for systematic q scans. Our result also shows that it is of sufficient accuracy and has to take into account the FOW effect to the 3rd order.

Long-term power generation expansion planning with short-term demand response: Model, algorithms, implementation, and electricity policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, Timo

Electric sector models are powerful tools that guide policy makers and stakeholders. Long-term power generation expansion planning models are a prominent example and determine a capacity expansion for an existing power system over a long planning horizon. With the changes in the power industry away from monopolies and regulation, the focus of these models has shifted to competing electric companies maximizing their profit in a deregulated electricity market. In recent years, consumers have started to participate in demand response programs, actively influencing electricity load and price in the power system. We introduce a model that features investment and retirement decisions over a long planning horizon of more than 20 years, as well as an hourly representation of day-ahead electricity markets in which sellers of electricity face buyers. This combination makes our model both unique and challenging to solve. Decomposition algorithms, and especially Benders decomposition, can exploit the model structure. We present a novel method that can be seen as an alternative to generalized Benders decomposition and relies on dynamic linear overestimation. We prove its finite convergence and present computational results, demonstrating its superiority over traditional approaches. In certain special cases of our model, all necessary solution values in the decomposition algorithms can be directly calculated and solving mathematical programming problems becomes entirely obsolete. This leads to highly efficient algorithms that drastically outperform their programming problem-based counterparts. Furthermore, we discuss the implementation of all tailored algorithms and the challenges from a modeling software developer's standpoint, providing an insider's look into the modeling language GAMS. Finally, we apply our model to the Texas power system and design two electricity policies motivated by the U.S. Environment Protection Agency's recently proposed CO2 emissions targets for the power sector.

Comparing demersal megafaunal species diversity along the depth gradient within the South Aegean and Cretan Seas (Eastern Mediterranean)

PubMed Central

Tserpes, George; Lampadariou, Nikolaos; Stergiou, Kostantinos I.

2017-01-01

Knowledge on biodiversity patterns of demersal megafaunal species in the Mediterranean and particularly in its eastern basin is still very scarce. In the present study, fine-scale diversity patterns in relation to depth were analyzed for three major megafaunal groups (fish, cephalopods and crustaceans) in three subareas of the eastern Mediterranean (Crete, Cyclades and Dodecanese islands). The analysis was based on data from the Mediterranean International Trawl Survey conducted during 2005–2014 and the relationship between depth and two different diversity measures (species richness and Shannon-Weaver) was examined using Generalized Additive Modeling (GAM) techniques. Species richness of fish decreased with depth in two of the three subareas (Cyclades, Dodecanese), while the opposite was true for crustaceans in all subareas. Cephalopods had higher species richness at intermediate depths, near the shelf break. Significant differences among subareas were found, with Crete showing a distinct species richness-depth pattern, which was more obvious for fish and cephalopods. The differences among subareas were also highlighted based on the occurrence of alien species of Indo-Pacific origin, which were more frequent in Crete. Our results suggested that the importance of depth-related factors in structuring communities was higher for cephalopods and less important for fish, and that Crete showed a distinct diversity-depth relationship, a fact that can be attributed to its specific geographical and oceanographic characteristics. These results support the current GFCM/FAO’s characterization of Crete as a unique geographic subarea. The findings of the study contribute to understanding the causes of underlying diversity patterns and would assist various environmental management actions, particularly those related to the establishment of marine-protected areas. PMID:28873395

Sumoylation Dynamics During Keratinocyte Differentiation

PubMed Central

Deyrieux, Adeline F.; Rosas-Acosta, Germán; Ozbun, Michelle A.; Wilson, Van G.

2012-01-01

Summary SUMO modification regulates the activity of numerous transcription factors that have a direct role in cell cycle progression, apoptosis, cellular proliferation, and development, but its role in differentiation processes is less clear. Keratinocyte differentiation requires the coordinated activation of a series of transcription factors, and as several critical keratinocyte transcription factors are known to be SUMO substrates, we investigated the role of sumoylation in keratinocyte differentiation. In a human keratinocyte cell line model (HaCaT cells), calcium-induced differentiation led to the transient and coordinated transcriptional activation of the genes encoding critical sumoylation system components, including SAE1, SAE2, Ubc9, SENP1, Miz-1 (PIASxβ), SUMO2, and SUMO3. The increased gene expression resulted in higher levels of the respective proteins and changes in the pattern of sumoylated substrate proteins during the differentiation process. Similar to the HaCaT results, stratified human foreskin keratinocytes showed an upregulation of Ubc9 in the suprabasal layers. Lastly, abrogation of sumoylation by Gam1 expression severely disrupted normal HaCaT differentiation, consistent with an important role for sumoylation in the proper progression of this biological process. PMID:17164289

Gyrokinetics with Advanced Collision Operators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belli, E. A.; Candy, J.

2014-10-01

For gyrokinetic studies in the pedestal region, collisions are expected to play a more critical role than in the core and there is concern that more advanced collision operators, as well as numerical methods optimized for the strong collisionality regime, are needed. For this purpose, a new gyrokinetic solver CGYRO has been developed for precise studies of high collisionality regimes. Building on GYRO and NEO, CGYRO uses the NEO pitch angle and energy velocity-space coordinate system to optimize the accuracy of the collision dynamics, particularly for multi-species collisions and including energy diffusion. With implementation of the reduced Hirshman-Sigmar collision operator with full cross-species coupling, CGYRO recovers linear ITG growth rates and the collisional GAM test at moderate collision frequency. Methods to improve the behavior in the collisionless regime, particularly for the trapped/passing particle boundary physics for kinetic electrons, are studied. Extensions to advanced model operators with finite-k⊥ corrections, e.g., the Sugama operator, and the impact of high collisionality on linear gyrokinetic stability in the edge are explored. Work supported by the US DOE under DE-FG02-95ER54309.

Evaluation of two new automated chemiluminescent assays (HemosIL® AcuStar HIT-IgG and HemosIL® AcuStar HIT-Ab) for the detection of heparin-induced antibodies in the diagnosis of heparin-induced thrombocytopenia.

PubMed

Van Hoecke, F; Devreese, K

2012-08-01

Recently, two new, fully automated quantitative chemiluminescent immunoassays, the HemosIL(®) AcuStar HIT-IgG (PF4-H), specific for IgG anti-PF4/H antibodies, and the HemosIL(®) AcuStar HIT-Ab(PF4-H), detecting IgG, IgM and IgA anti-PF4/H antibodies, were introduced into the market. In this study, their performance was compared mutually and with the Zymutest HIA IgG and HIA IgGAM ELISA. Citrated plasmas from 87 patients with clinical suspicion of heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (HIT) were analyzed with all four assays and with a functional confirmation assay. Apart from the manufacturer's cutoffs, optimalized cutoffs were evaluated as well. Sensitivities of all assays were 100%. The Acustar HIT-IgG assay showed a higher specificity compared with the HIT-Ab assay (85%vs. 73%), using the manufacturer's cutoffs. Specificities of all assays, except for the AcuStar HIT-IgG, could be significantly improved when altering the cutoff. Titers were significantly higher for the HIT-Ab assay compared with the HIT-IgG assay (P = 0.0001). This was also the case for the patients with confirmed HIT (P = 0.0495), indicating that the one cutoff (1.0 OD) for both Acustar assays, as proposed by the manufacturer, can be adapted for the AcuStar Hit-Ab assay resulting in an increased specificity. Performance characteristics of the Acustar HIT-IgG and HIT-Ab assay are comparable to the Zymutest HIA IgG and HIA IgGAM. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Genome of Enterobacteriophage Lula/phi80 and Insights into Its Ability To Spread in the Laboratory Environment

PubMed Central

Rotman, Ella; Kouzminova, Elena; Plunkett, Guy

2012-01-01

The novel temperate bacteriophage Lula, contaminating laboratory Escherichia coli strains, turned out to be the well-known lambdoid phage phi80. Our previous studies revealed that two characteristics of Lula/phi80 facilitate its spread in the laboratory environment: cryptic lysogen productivity and stealthy infectivity. To understand the genetics/genomics behind these traits, we sequenced and annotated the Lula/phi80 genome, encountering an E. coli-toxic gene revealed as a gap in the sequencing contig and analyzing a few genes in more detail. Lula/phi80's genome layout copies that of lambda, yet homology with other lambdoid phages is mostly limited to the capsid genes. Lula/phi80's DNA is resistant to cutting with several restriction enzymes, suggesting DNA modification, but deletion of the phage's damL gene, coding for DNA adenine methylase, did not make DNA cuttable. The damL mutation of Lula/phi80 also did not change the phage titer in lysogen cultures, whereas the host dam mutation did increase it almost 100-fold. Since the high phage titer in cultures of Lula/phi80 lysogens is apparently in response to endogenous DNA damage, we deleted the only Lula/phi80 SOS-controlled gene, dinL. We found that dinL mutant lysogens release fewer phage in response to endogenous DNA damage but are unchanged in their response to external DNA damage. The toxic gene of Lula/phi80, gamL, encodes an inhibitor of the host ATP-dependent exonucleases, RecBCD and SbcCD. Its own antidote, agt, apparently encoding a modifier protein, was found nearby. Interestingly, Lula/phi80 lysogens are recD and sbcCD phenocopies, so GamL and Agt are part of lysogenic conversion. PMID:23042999

Involvement of Receptor-like Protein Tyrosine Phosphatase ζ/RPTPβ and Its Ligand Pleiotrophin/Heparin-binding Growth-associated Molecule (HB-GAM) in Neuronal Migration

PubMed Central

Maeda, Nobuaki; Noda, Masaharu

1998-01-01

Pleiotrophin/heparin-binding growth-associated molecule (HB-GAM) is a specific ligand of protein tyrosine phosphatase ζ (PTPζ)/receptor-like protein tyrosine phosphatase β (RPTPβ) expressed in the brain as a chondroitin sulfate proteoglycan. Pleiotrophin and PTPζ isoforms are localized along the radial glial fibers, a scaffold for neuronal migration, suggesting that these molecules are involved in migratory processes of neurons during brain development. In this study, we examined the roles of pleiotrophin-PTPζ interaction in the neuronal migration using cell migration assay systems with glass fibers and Boyden chambers. Pleiotrophin and poly-l-lysine coated on the substratums stimulated cell migration of cortical neurons, while laminin, fibronectin, and tenascin exerted almost no effect. Pleiotrophin-induced and poly-l-lysine–induced neuronal migrations showed significant differences in sensitivity to various molecules and reagents. Polyclonal antibodies against the extracellular domain of PTPζ, PTPζ-S, an extracellular secreted form of PTPζ, and sodium vanadate, a protein tyrosine phosphatase inhibitor, added into the culture medium strongly suppressed specifically the pleiotrophin-induced neuronal migration. Furthermore, chondroitin sulfate C but not chondroitin sulfate A inhibited pleiotrophin-induced neuronal migration, in good accordance with our previous findings that chondroitin sulfate constitutes a part of the pleiotrophin-binding site of PTPζ, and PTPζ-pleiotrophin binding is inhibited by chondroitin sulfate C but not by chondroitin sulfate A. Immunocytochemical analysis indicated that the transmembrane forms of PTPζ are expressed on the migrating neurons especially at the lamellipodia along the leading processes. These results suggest that PTPζ is involved in the neuronal migration as a neuronal receptor of pleiotrophin distributed along radial glial fibers. PMID:9660874

A U-shaped Association Between Blood Pressure and Cognitive Impairment in Chinese Elderly.

PubMed

Lv, Yue-Bin; Zhu, Peng-Fei; Yin, Zhao-Xue; Kraus, Virginia Byers; Threapleton, Diane; Chei, Choy-Lye; Brasher, Melanie Sereny; Zhang, Juan; Qian, Han-Zhu; Mao, Chen; Matchar, David Bruce; Luo, Jie-Si; Zeng, Yi; Shi, Xiao-Ming

2017-02-01

Higher or lower blood pressure may relate to cognitive impairment, whereas the relationship between blood pressure and cognitive impairment among the elderly is not well-studied. The study objective was to determine whether blood pressure is associated with cognitive impairment in the elderly, and, if so, to accurately describe the association. Cross-sectional data from the sixth wave of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) conducted in 2011. Community-based setting in longevity areas in China. A total of 7144 Chinese elderly aged 65 years and older were included in the sample. Systolic blood pressures (SBP) and diastolic blood pressures (DBP) were measured, pulse pressure (PP) was calculated as (SBP) - (DBP) and mean arterial pressures (MAP) was calculated as 1/3(SBP) + 2/3(DBP). Cognitive function was assessed via a validated Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Based on the results of generalized additive models (GAMs), U-shaped associations were identified between cognitive impairment and SBP, DBP, PP, and MAP. The cutpoints at which risk for cognitive impairment (MMSE <24) was minimized were determined by quadratic models as 141 mm Hg, 85 mm Hg, 62 mm Hg, and 103 mm Hg, respectively. In the logistic models, U-shaped associations remained for SBP, DBP, and MAP but not PP. Below the identified cutpoints, each 1-mm Hg decrease in blood pressure corresponded to 0.7%, 1.1%, and 1.1% greater risk in the risk of cognitive impairment, respectively. Above the cutpoints, each 1-mm Hg increase in blood pressure corresponded to 1.2%, 1.8%, and 2.1% greater risk of cognitive impairment for SBP, DBP, and MAP, respectively. A U-shaped association between blood pressure and cognitive function in an elderly Chinese population was found. Recognition of these instances is important in identifying the high-risk population for cognitive impairment and to individualize blood pressure management for cognitive impairment prevention. Copyright © 2016 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. All rights reserved.

[Potential distribution of Panax ginseng and its predicted responses to climate change.

PubMed

Zhao, Ze Fang; Wei, Hai Yan; Guo, Yan Long; Gu, Wei

2016-11-18

This study utilized Panax ginseng as the research object. Based on BioMod2 platform, with species presence data and 22 climatic variables, the potential geographic distribution of P. ginseng under the current conditions in northeast China was simulated with ten species distribution model. And then with the receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) as weights, we build an ensemble model, which integrated the results of 10 models, using the ensemble model, the future distributions of P. ginseng were also projected for the periods 2050s and 2070s under the climate change scenarios of RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results showed that for the entire region of study area, under the present climatic conditions, 10.4% of the areas were identified as suitable habitats, which were mainly located in northeast Changbai Mountains area and the southeastern region of the Xiaoxing'an Mountains. The model simulations indicated that the suitable habitats would have a relatively significant change under the different climate change scenarios, and generally the range of suitable habitats would be a certain degree of decrease. Meanwhile, the goodness-of-fit, predicted ranges, and weights of explanatory variables was various for each model. And according to the goodness-of-fit, Maxent had the highest model performance, and GAM, RF and ANN were followed, while SRE had the lowest prediction accuracy. In this study we established an ensemble model, which could improve the accuracy of the existing species distribution models, and optimization of species distribution prediction results.

Predicting the Invasion Potential of a Puerto Rican Frog in Hawaii using MODIS Satellite Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bisrat, S. A.; White, M. A.

2008-12-01

The Puerto Rican coqui frog (Eleutherodactylus coqui, hereafter coqui), which was introduced into Hawaii accidentally via commercial nurseries, is an aggressive invasive species in Hawaii. The coqui threatens Hawaii's unique ecological communities because it predates upon endemic invertebrates, which comprise the large majority of Hawaii's endemic fauna. Coqui frogs also affect real estate valuations because of their loud mating calls. Despite this widespread problem, the potential coqui range in Hawaii is currently unknown, making control and management efforts difficult. We fitted linear discriminant analysis (LDA), logistic regression (LR) via generalized linear models (GLMs), generalized additive models (GAMs), classification trees (CTs), random forests (RF), and support vector machine (SVM) to model the species distribution and map their invasion potential. We used five MODIS satellite imagery-derived biophysical variables as explanatory variables: leaf area index (LAI), fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and land surface temperature (LST) from three MODIS products: MOD11 (LST), MOD13 (LAI and FPAR), and MOD15 (Vegetation Index) (collection 4). We used 2000-2005 MODIS data from Aqua and Terra satellites to generate monthly climatologies for each biophysical variable. We collected presence/absence data from Puerto Rico and Hawaii using a 1 km grid overlaid over the entire islands of Puerto Rico and the Island of Hawaii by sampling every other pixel of the grid intersecting with the road network. We then used the dataset from Puerto Rico to train the six models while the Hawaii dataset was used as a test set. All six models predicted the invasion potential of coqui frogs in Hawaii with a moderate success with mean Kappa value of 0.31, mean area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics (AUC) of 0.75 and mean classification accuracy (CA) of 0.69. RF and SVM outperformed the other classifiers with Kappa value of 0.4, AUC value of 0.79 and CA of 0.71 for RF and Kappa value of 0.4, AUC value of 0.71 and CA value of 0.72 for SVM. These results suggest climate matching between the native and the introduced habitats of coqui frogs is not strong. Further, the results suggest coqui frogs in their introduced habitat are not showing strong niche conservation.

Spin-rolling, welding, and heat treatment of aluminium 2219 for Ariane 5 GAM high pressure vessel liners

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radtke, W.

1992-10-01

Cylindrical liners made of Al 2219 may be spinrolled if both recrystallization and metastable precipitates can be avoided during forging or preparatory heat treatment. So welding is to be limited to circumferential joints. Pore-free welds are attainable immediately after hydroxide layer removal by diamond cutting without grease application. The EB vacuum is favorable to porosity suppression. A complete heat treatment of the liner incorporating solutionizing, water quenching and ageing leads to 100 percent weld efficiency. Pressure stabilization avoids buckling. Subsequent carbon fiber winding, curing and plastic prestressing of the liner results in an efficient high pressure vessel for hydrogen service.

Contribution to the knowledge of pathogenic fungi of spiders in Argentina. Southernmost record in the world.

PubMed

Manfrino, Romina G; González, Alda; Barneche, Jorge; Tornesello Galván, Julieta; Hywell-Jones, Nigel; López Lastra, Claudia C

The aim of this study was to identify entomopathogenic fungi infecting spiders (Araneae) in a protected area of Buenos Aires province, Argentina. The Araneae species identified was Stenoterommata platensis. The pathogens identified were Lecanicillium aphanocladii Zare & W. Gams, Purpureocillium lilacinum (Thom) Luangsa-ard, Houbraken, Hywel Jones & Samson and Ophiocordyceps caloceroides (Berk & M.A. Curtis). This study constitutes the southernmost records in the world and contributes to expanding the knowledge of the biodiversity of pathogenic fungi of spiders in Argentina. Copyright © 2016 Asociación Argentina de Microbiología. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Fit-for-purpose: species distribution model performance depends on evaluation criteria - Dutch Hoverflies as a case study.

PubMed

Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Jesús; Carvalheiro, Luísa G; Polce, Chiara; van Loon, E Emiel; Raes, Niels; Reemer, Menno; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C

2013-01-01

Understanding species distributions and the factors limiting them is an important topic in ecology and conservation, including in nature reserve selection and predicting climate change impacts. While Species Distribution Models (SDM) are the main tool used for these purposes, choosing the best SDM algorithm is not straightforward as these are plentiful and can be applied in many different ways. SDM are used mainly to gain insight in 1) overall species distributions, 2) their past-present-future probability of occurrence and/or 3) to understand their ecological niche limits (also referred to as ecological niche modelling). The fact that these three aims may require different models and outputs is, however, rarely considered and has not been evaluated consistently. Here we use data from a systematically sampled set of species occurrences to specifically test the performance of Species Distribution Models across several commonly used algorithms. Species range in distribution patterns from rare to common and from local to widespread. We compare overall model fit (representing species distribution), the accuracy of the predictions at multiple spatial scales, and the consistency in selection of environmental correlations all across multiple modelling runs. As expected, the choice of modelling algorithm determines model outcome. However, model quality depends not only on the algorithm, but also on the measure of model fit used and the scale at which it is used. Although model fit was higher for the consensus approach and Maxent, Maxent and GAM models were more consistent in estimating local occurrence, while RF and GBM showed higher consistency in environmental variables selection. Model outcomes diverged more for narrowly distributed species than for widespread species. We suggest that matching study aims with modelling approach is essential in Species Distribution Models, and provide suggestions how to do this for different modelling aims and species' data characteristics (i.e. sample size, spatial distribution).

Association between high temperature and mortality in metropolitan areas of four cities in various climatic zones in China: a time-series study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Numerous studies have reported on the associations between ambient temperatures and mortality. However, few multi-city studies have been conducted in developing countries including China. This study aimed to examine the association between high temperature and mortality outcomes in four cities with different climatic characteristics in China to identify the most vulnerable population, detect the threshold temperatures, and provide scientific evidence for public health policy implementations to respond to challenges from extreme heat. Methods A semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAM) with a Poisson distribution was used to analyze the impacts of the daily maximum temperature over the threshold on mortality after controlling for covariates including time trends, day of the week (DOW), humidity, daily temperature range, and outdoor air pollution. Results The temperature thresholds for all-cause mortality were 29°C, 35°C, 33°C and 34°C for Harbin, Nanjing, Shenzhen and Chongqing, respectively. After adjusting for potential confounders including air pollution, strong associations between daily maximum temperature and daily mortality from all-cause, cardiovascular, endocrine and metabolic outcomes, and particularly diabetes, were observed in different geographical cities, with increases of 3.2-5.5%, 4.6-7.5% and 12.5-31.9% (with 14.7-29.2% in diabetes), respectively, with each 1°C increment in the daily maximum temperature over the threshold. A stronger temperature-associated mortality was detected in females compared to males. Additionally, both the population over 55 years and younger adults aged 30 to 54 years reported significant heat-mortality associations. Conclusions Extreme heat is becoming a huge threat to public health and human welfare due to the strong temperature-mortality associations in China. Climate change with increasing temperatures may make the situation worse. Relevant public health strategies and an early extreme weather and health warning system should be developed and improved at an early stage to prevent and reduce the health risks due to extreme weather and climate change in China, given its huge population, diverse geographic distribution and unbalanced socioeconomic status with various climatic characteristics. PMID:25103276

Effect of Asian dust storms on mortality in three Asian cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hyewon; Honda, Yasushi; Lim, Youn-Hee; Guo, Yue Leon; Hashizume, Masahiro; Kim, Ho

2014-06-01

Asian dust storms (ADS) have affected several Asian countries and have been a major concern due to adverse effects on public health. The occurrence of ADS differs in each country based on geographical features and distance from the storms' origin. Many studies have reported significant associations between ADS and morbidity. However, regarding the association between ADS and mortality, only a few studies have found statistically significant ADS effects in Korea, Taiwan and Japan. Accordingly, this study aimed to examine the effects of ADS on daily mortality in three Asian cities (Seoul, South Korea; Taipei, Taiwan; and Kitakyushu, Japan) and to explore the differences in the extent of effects in each city. We performed time-series analyses using a generalized additive model (GAM) with Quasi-Poisson regressions. Deaths due to accidents or external causes were excluded. We used a dummy variable as an indicator of ADS and considered lag effects of ADS. Stratified analyses by disease and age and sensitivity analyses controlling for NO2, SO2, and PM10 were also conducted respectively. Additionally, influenza epidemics were adjusted for considering seasonal patterns, and a meta-analysis was performed. We reported results as excess mortality by percentage due to Asian dust storms. We found significant excess mortality in Seoul and Kitakyushu as follows. In Seoul, ADS showed adverse effects on mortality under 65 years old (lag 2: 4.44%, lag 3: 5%, lag 4: 4.39%). In Kitakyushu, ADS had adverse effects on respiratory mortality (lag 2: 18.82%). Contradictory to results in Seoul and Kitakyushu, ADS seemed to have a protective effect in Taipei: total non-accidental mortality (lag 0: -2.77%, lag 1: -3.24%), mortality over 65 years old (lag 0: -3.35%, lag 1: -3.29%) and respiratory mortality (lag 0: -10.62%, lag 1: -9.67%). Sensitivity analyses showed similar findings as the main results. Our findings suggest that ADS may affect mortality in several Asian cities, and that a dust storm warning system could help protect people from dust storms.

Seasonal variations in larval biomass and biochemical composition of brown shrimp, Crangon crangon (Decapoda, Caridea), at hatching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urzúa, Ángel; Anger, Klaus

2013-06-01

The "brown shrimp", Crangon crangon (Linnaeus 1758), is a benthic key species in the North Sea ecosystem, supporting an intense commercial fishery. Its reproductive pattern is characterized by a continuous spawning season from mid-winter to early autumn. During this extended period, C. crangon shows significant seasonal variations in egg size and embryonic biomass, which may influence larval quality at hatching. In the present study, we quantified seasonal changes in dry weight (W) and chemical composition (CHN, protein and lipid) of newly hatched larvae of C. crangon. Our data revealed significant variations, with maximum biomass values at the beginning of the hatching season (February-March), a decrease throughout spring (April-May) and a minimum in summer (June-September). While all absolute values of biomass and biochemical constituents per larva showed highly significant differences between months ( P < 0.001), CHN, protein and lipid concentrations (expressed as percentage values of dry weight) showed only marginally significant differences ( P < 0.05). According to generalized additive models (GAM), key variables of embryonic development exerted significant effects on larval condition at hatching: The larval carbon content (C) was positively correlated with embryonic carbon content shortly after egg-laying ( r 2 = 0.60; P < 0.001) and negatively with the average incubation temperature during the period of embryonic development ( r 2 = 0.35; P < 0.001). Additionally, water temperature ( r 2 = 0.57; P < 0.001) and food availability (phytoplankton C; r 2 = 0.39; P < 0.001) at the time of hatching were negatively correlated with larval C content at hatching. In conclusion, "winter larvae" hatching from larger "winter eggs" showed higher initial values of biomass compared to "summer larvae" originating from smaller "summer eggs". This indicates carry-over effects persisting from the embryonic to the larval phase. Since "winter larvae" are more likely exposed to poor nutritional conditions, intraspecific variability in larval biomass at hatching is interpreted as part of an adaptive reproductive strategy compensating for strong seasonality in plankton production and transitory periods of larval food limitation.

Association between high temperature and mortality in metropolitan areas of four cities in various climatic zones in China: a time-series study.

PubMed

Li, Yonghong; Cheng, Yibin; Cui, Guoquan; Peng, Chaoqiong; Xu, Yan; Wang, Yulin; Liu, Yingchun; Liu, Jingyi; Li, Chengcheng; Wu, Zhen; Bi, Peng; Jin, Yinlong

2014-08-07

Numerous studies have reported on the associations between ambient temperatures and mortality. However, few multi-city studies have been conducted in developing countries including China. This study aimed to examine the association between high temperature and mortality outcomes in four cities with different climatic characteristics in China to identify the most vulnerable population, detect the threshold temperatures, and provide scientific evidence for public health policy implementations to respond to challenges from extreme heat. A semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAM) with a Poisson distribution was used to analyze the impacts of the daily maximum temperature over the threshold on mortality after controlling for covariates including time trends, day of the week (DOW), humidity, daily temperature range, and outdoor air pollution. The temperature thresholds for all-cause mortality were 29°C, 35°C, 33°C and 34°C for Harbin, Nanjing, Shenzhen and Chongqing, respectively. After adjusting for potential confounders including air pollution, strong associations between daily maximum temperature and daily mortality from all-cause, cardiovascular, endocrine and metabolic outcomes, and particularly diabetes, were observed in different geographical cities, with increases of 3.2-5.5%, 4.6-7.5% and 12.5-31.9% (with 14.7-29.2% in diabetes), respectively, with each 1°C increment in the daily maximum temperature over the threshold. A stronger temperature-associated mortality was detected in females compared to males. Additionally, both the population over 55 years and younger adults aged 30 to 54 years reported significant heat-mortality associations. Extreme heat is becoming a huge threat to public health and human welfare due to the strong temperature-mortality associations in China. Climate change with increasing temperatures may make the situation worse. Relevant public health strategies and an early extreme weather and health warning system should be developed and improved at an early stage to prevent and reduce the health risks due to extreme weather and climate change in China, given its huge population, diverse geographic distribution and unbalanced socioeconomic status with various climatic characteristics.

The Effects of Air Pollution on Cardiovascular and Respiratory Causes of Emergency Admission.

PubMed

Shahi, Ali Mohammad; Omraninava, Ali; Goli, Mitra; Soheilarezoomand, Hamid Reza; Mirzaei, Nader

2014-01-01

Today, air pollution is one of the critical problems in metropolitans and necessary preparations are needed for confronting this crisis. The present study was based on the goal of determining the relationship of air pollutant levels with the rate of emergency admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular patients. In the present retrospective cross-sectional study, all respiratory and cardiovascular patients, referred to emergency department during 2012, were assessed. The meteorological and air pollution data were collected. Information regarding the numbers and dates (month, day) of admission for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases was achieved from the hospital's electronic registration system. The relation of air pollution and respiratory and cardiovascular admissions were analyzed by generalize additive model (GAM). 5922 patients were assessed which included 4048 (68.36%) cardiovascular and 1874 (31.64%) respiratory. Carbon monoxide (CO) level was an independent risk factor of cardiovascular disease on the same day (RR=1.49; 95% CI: 1.25- 1.77; P<0.001), the day before (RR=1.22; 95% CI: 1.02- 1.45; P=0.03), and the last two days (RR=1.3; 95% CI: 1.09- 1.54; P<0.001). The same process was repeated for ozone (O3). In addition, the O3 level on the same day (RR=1.49; 95% CI: 1.25- 1.77; P<0.001), the day before (RR=1.22; 95% CI: 1.02- 1.45; P=0.03), the last two days (RR=1.3; 95% CI: 1.09- 1.54; P<0.001), and the last week (RR=1.004; 95% CI: 1.0007-1.008; P=0.02) were independent risk factors of respiratory admissions. The increased level of particulate matter less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter (PM2.5) like O3 led to growth in the admissions to emergency department. The findings of the present study suggested that rising levels of CO and O3 during two days leads to a significant increase in cardiovascular admission on the third day. Furthermore, increase in O3, PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and CO levels causes a rise in respiratory admissions to emergency department.

Estimating Soil Organic Carbon stocks and uncertainties at the regional scale following a legacy sampling strategy - a case study from southern Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chartin, Caroline; Krüger, Inken; Goidts, Esther; Carnol, Monique; van Wesemael, Bas

2017-04-01

The quantification and the spatialisation of reliable SOC stocks (Mg C ha-1) and total stock (Tg C) baselines and associated uncertainties are fundamental to detect the gains or losses in SOC, and to locate sensitive areas with low SOC levels. Here, we aim to both quantify and spatialize SOC stocks at regional scale (southern Belgium) based on data from one non-design-based nor model-based sampling scheme. To this end, we developed a computation procedure based on Digital Soil Mapping techniques and stochastic simulations (Monte-Carlo) allowing the estimation of multiple (here, 10,000) independent spatialized datasets. The computation of the prediction uncertainty accounts for the errors associated to the both estimations of i) SOC stock at the pixel-related area scale and ii) parameters of the spatial model. Based on these 10,000 individuals, median SOC stocks and 90% prediction intervals were computed for each pixel, as well as total SOC stocks and their 90% prediction intervals for selected sub-areas and for the entire study area. Hence, a Generalised Additive Model (GAM) explaining 69.3 % of the SOC stock variance was calibrated and then validated (R2 = 0.64). The model overestimated low SOC stock (below 50 Mg C ha-1) and underestimated high SOC stock (especially those above 100 Mg C kg-1). A positive gradient of SOC stock occurred from the northwest to the center of Wallonia with a slight decrease on the southernmost part, correlating to the evolution of precipitation and temperature (along with elevation) and dominant land use. At the catchment scale higher SOC stocks were predicted on valley bottoms, especially for poorly drained soils under grassland. Mean predicted SOC stocks for cropland and grassland in Wallonia were of 26.58 Tg C (SD 1.52) and 43.30 Tg C (2.93), respectively. The procedure developed here allowed to predict realistic spatial patterns of SOC stocks all over agricultural lands of southern Belgium and to produce reliable statistics of total SOC stocks for each of the 20 combinations of land use / agricultural regions of Wallonia. This procedure appears useful to produce soil maps as policy tools in conducting sustainable management at regional and national scales, and to compute statistics which comply with specific requirements of reporting activities.

Application of Hybrid Optimization-Expert System for Optimal Power Management on Board Space Power Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Momoh, James; Chattopadhyay, Deb; Basheer, Omar Ali AL

1996-01-01

The space power system has two sources of energy: photo-voltaic blankets and batteries. The optimal power management problem on-board has two broad operations: off-line power scheduling to determine the load allocation schedule of the next several hours based on the forecast of load and solar power availability. The nature of this study puts less emphasis on speed requirement for computation and more importance on the optimality of the solution. The second category problem, on-line power rescheduling, is needed in the event of occurrence of a contingency to optimally reschedule the loads to minimize the 'unused' or 'wasted' energy while keeping the priority on certain type of load and minimum disturbance of the original optimal schedule determined in the first-stage off-line study. The computational performance of the on-line 'rescheduler' is an important criterion and plays a critical role in the selection of the appropriate tool. The Howard University Center for Energy Systems and Control has developed a hybrid optimization-expert systems based power management program. The pre-scheduler has been developed using a non-linear multi-objective optimization technique called the Outer Approximation method and implemented using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). The optimization model has the capability of dealing with multiple conflicting objectives viz. maximizing energy utilization, minimizing the variation of load over a day, etc. and incorporates several complex interaction between the loads in a space system. The rescheduling is performed using an expert system developed in PROLOG which utilizes a rule-base for reallocation of the loads in an emergency condition viz. shortage of power due to solar array failure, increase of base load, addition of new activity, repetition of old activity etc. Both the modules handle decision making on battery charging and discharging and allocation of loads over a time-horizon of a day divided into intervals of 10 minutes. The models have been extensively tested using a case study for the Space Station Freedom and the results for the case study will be presented. Several future enhancements of the pre-scheduler and the 'rescheduler' have been outlined which include graphic analyzer for the on-line module, incorporating probabilistic considerations, including spatial location of the loads and the connectivity using a direct current (DC) load flow model.

Optimization of urban water supply portfolios combining infrastructure capacity expansion and water use decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medellin-Azuara, J.; Fraga, C. C. S.; Marques, G.; Mendes, C. A.

2015-12-01

The expansion and operation of urban water supply systems under rapidly growing demands, hydrologic uncertainty, and scarce water supplies requires a strategic combination of various supply sources for added reliability, reduced costs and improved operational flexibility. The design and operation of such portfolio of water supply sources merits decisions of what and when to expand, and how much to use of each available sources accounting for interest rates, economies of scale and hydrologic variability. The present research provides a framework and an integrated methodology that optimizes the expansion of various water supply alternatives using dynamic programming and combining both short term and long term optimization of water use and simulation of water allocation. A case study in Bahia Do Rio Dos Sinos in Southern Brazil is presented. The framework couples an optimization model with quadratic programming model in GAMS with WEAP, a rain runoff simulation models that hosts the water supply infrastructure features and hydrologic conditions. Results allow (a) identification of trade offs between cost and reliability of different expansion paths and water use decisions and (b) evaluation of potential gains by reducing water system losses as a portfolio component. The latter is critical in several developing countries where water supply system losses are high and often neglected in favor of more system expansion. Results also highlight the potential of various water supply alternatives including, conservation, groundwater, and infrastructural enhancements over time. The framework proves its usefulness for planning its transferability to similarly urbanized systems.

DarkBit: a GAMBIT module for computing dark matter observables and likelihoods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bringmann, Torsten; Conrad, Jan; Cornell, Jonathan M.; Dal, Lars A.; Edsjö, Joakim; Farmer, Ben; Kahlhoefer, Felix; Kvellestad, Anders; Putze, Antje; Savage, Christopher; Scott, Pat; Weniger, Christoph; White, Martin; Wild, Sebastian

2017-12-01

We introduce DarkBit, an advanced software code for computing dark matter constraints on various extensions to the Standard Model of particle physics, comprising both new native code and interfaces to external packages. This release includes a dedicated signal yield calculator for gamma-ray observations, which significantly extends current tools by implementing a cascade-decay Monte Carlo, as well as a dedicated likelihood calculator for current and future experiments ( gamLike). This provides a general solution for studying complex particle physics models that predict dark matter annihilation to a multitude of final states. We also supply a direct detection package that models a large range of direct detection experiments ( DDCalc), and that provides the corresponding likelihoods for arbitrary combinations of spin-independent and spin-dependent scattering processes. Finally, we provide custom relic density routines along with interfaces to DarkSUSY, micrOMEGAs, and the neutrino telescope likelihood package nulike. DarkBit is written in the framework of the Global And Modular Beyond the Standard Model Inference Tool ( GAMBIT), providing seamless integration into a comprehensive statistical fitting framework that allows users to explore new models with both particle and astrophysics constraints, and a consistent treatment of systematic uncertainties. In this paper we describe its main functionality, provide a guide to getting started quickly, and show illustrative examples for results obtained with DarkBit (both as a stand-alone tool and as a GAMBIT module). This includes a quantitative comparison between two of the main dark matter codes ( DarkSUSY and micrOMEGAs), and application of DarkBit 's advanced direct and indirect detection routines to a simple effective dark matter model.

Deep-sea benthic habitats modeling and mapping in a NE Atlantic seamount (Galicia Bank)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serrano, A.; González-Irusta, J. M.; Punzón, A.; García-Alegre, A.; Lourido, A.; Ríos, P.; Blanco, M.; Gómez-Ballesteros, M.; Druet, M.; Cristobo, J.; Cartes, J. E.

2017-08-01

This study presents the results of seafloor habitat identification and mapping of a NE Atlantic deep seamount. An ;assemble first, predict later; approach has been followed to identify and map the benthic habitats of the Galicia Bank (NW Iberian). Biotic patterns inferred from the survey data have been used to drive the definition of benthic assemblages using multivariate tools. Eight assemblages, four hard substrates and four sedimentary ones, have been described from a matrix of structural species. Distribution of these assemblages was correlated with environmental factors (multibeam and backscatter data) using binomial GAMs. Finally, the distribution model of each assemblage was applied to produce continuous maps and pooled in a final map with the distribution of the main benthic habitats. Depth and substrate type are key factors when determining soft bottom communities, whereas rocky habitat distribution is mainly explained by rock slope and orientation. Enrichment by northern water masses (LSW) arriving to GB and possible zooplankton biomass increase at vertical-steep walls by ;bottom trapping; can explain the higher diversity of habitat providing filter-feeders at slope rocky breaks. These results concerning vulnerable species and habitats, such as Lophelia and Madrepora communities and black and bamboo coral aggregations were the basis of the Spanish proposal of inclusion within the Natura 2000 network. The aim of the present study was to establish the scientific criteria needed for managing and protecting those environmental values.

The effect of online violent video games on levels of aggression.

PubMed

Hollingdale, Jack; Greitemeyer, Tobias

2014-01-01

In recent years the video game industry has surpassed both the music and video industries in sales. Currently violent video games are among the most popular video games played by consumers, most specifically First-Person Shooters (FPS). Technological advancements in game play experience including the ability to play online has accounted for this increase in popularity. Previous research, utilising the General Aggression Model (GAM), has identified that violent video games increase levels of aggression. Little is known, however, as to the effect of playing a violent video game online. Participants (N = 101) were randomly assigned to one of four experimental conditions; neutral video game--offline, neutral video game--online, violent video game--offline and violent video game--online. Following this they completed questionnaires to assess their attitudes towards the game and engaged in a chilli sauce paradigm to measure behavioural aggression. The results identified that participants who played a violent video game exhibited more aggression than those who played a neutral video game. Furthermore, this main effect was not particularly pronounced when the game was played online. These findings suggest that both playing violent video games online and offline compared to playing neutral video games increases aggression.

Health benefits of improving air quality in the rapidly aging Korean society.

PubMed

Bae, Hyun Joo; Park, Jeongim

2009-11-15

Korea is experiencing an extraordinarily rapid demographic transition. We investigated the short-term association between air pollution and mortality and assessed the impact of improved air quality on mortality in a rapidly aging city, Seoul, Korea. The generalized additive model (GAM) was used to estimate the relative risks (RR) of mortality associated with changes in air pollution. The time trends, seasonal variations, day of the week effects, and weather effects were controlled in the models. To estimate the health benefits, we used the US Environmental Protection Agency's BenMAP. For people 0-64 years of age, elderly people (65+ years), and all age groups, an increase of 10 microg/m(3) in PM(10) was associated with increases in daily death counts of 0.27% (95% CI: 0.04-0.50), 0.45% (95% CI: 0.27-0.64), and 0.37% (95% CI: 0.23-0.52), respectively. For ages 0-64 years, elderly people, and all age groups, a 10 ppb increase in 1-hour maximum ozone concentration resulted in an increased risk of daily death counts of 0.28% (95% CI: -0.19-0.74), 0.96% (95% CI: 0.46-1.47), and 0.81% (95% CI: 0.35-1.26), respectively. For elderly people, it was estimated that the health benefits of attaining the World Health Organization's (WHO) air quality guidelines (AQGs) for PM(10) (24-hour average 50 microg/m(3)) would suggest an annual reduction of 964 (95% CI: 564-1366) premature deaths, and 329 (95% CI: 159-500) premature deaths could be prevented annually in 2015 from attaining the WHO's guidelines for ozone (8-hour average 100 microg/m(3)). The rapid increase of the elderly population has major consequences and implications for society and public health. This study showed that elderly people are at higher risk for the acute mortality effects of air pollution. Therefore, cleaner air will substantially contribute to improved public health in Seoul, given the growing concern about the adverse effects of air pollution for elderly people.

Co-occurrence patterns of trees along macro-climatic gradients and their potential influence on the present and future distribution of Fagus sylvatica L.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meier, E.S.; Edwards, T.C.; Kienast, Felix; Dobbertin, M.; Zimmermann, N.E.

2011-01-01

Aim During recent and future climate change, shifts in large-scale species ranges are expected due to the hypothesized major role of climatic factors in regulating species distributions. The stress-gradient hypothesis suggests that biotic interactions may act as major constraints on species distributions under more favourable growing conditions, while climatic constraints may dominate under unfavourable conditions. We tested this hypothesis for one focal tree species having three major competitors using broad-scale environmental data. We evaluated the variation of species co-occurrence patterns in climate space and estimated the influence of these patterns on the distribution of the focal species for current and projected future climates.Location Europe.Methods We used ICP Forest Level 1 data as well as climatic, topographic and edaphic variables. First, correlations between the relative abundance of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and three major competitor species (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus robur) were analysed in environmental space, and then projected to geographic space. Second, a sensitivity analysis was performed using generalized additive models (GAM) to evaluate where and how much the predicted F. sylvatica distribution varied under current and future climates if potential competitor species were included or excluded. We evaluated if these areas coincide with current species co-occurrence patterns.Results Correlation analyses supported the stress-gradient hypothesis: towards favourable growing conditions of F. sylvatica, its abundance was strongly linked to the abundance of its competitors, while this link weakened towards unfavourable growing conditions, with stronger correlations in the south and at low elevations than in the north and at high elevations. The sensitivity analysis showed a potential spatial segregation of species with changing climate and a pronounced shift of zones where co-occurrence patterns may play a major role.Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of species co-occurrence patterns for calibrating improved species distribution models for use in projections of climate effects. The correlation approach is able to localize European areas where inclusion of biotic predictors is effective. The climate-induced spatial segregation of the major tree species could have ecological and economic consequences. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Effects of meteorological factors on incidence of scarlet fever during different periods in different districts of China.

PubMed

Duan, Yu; Yang, Li-Juan; Zhang, Yan-Jie; Huang, Xiao-Lei; Pan, Gui-Xia; Wang, Jing

2017-03-01

To reveal the difference of meteorological effect on scarlet fever in Beijing and Hong Kong, China, during different periods among 2004-2014. The data of monthly incidence of scarlet fever and meteorological variables from 2004 to 2014 in Beijing and Hong Kong were collected from Chinese science data center of public health, meteorological data website and Hong Kong observatory website. The whole study period was separated into two periods by the outbreak year 2011 (Jan 2004-Dec 2010 and Jan 2011-Dec 2014). A generalized additive Poisson model was conducted to estimate the effect of meteorological variables on monthly incidence of scarlet fever during two periods in Beijing and Hong Kong, China. Incidence of scarlet fever in two districts were compared and found the average incidence during period of 2004-2010 were significantly different (Z=203.973, P<0.001) while average incidence became generally equal during 2011-2014 (Z=2.125, P>0.05). There was also significant difference in meteorological variables between Beijing and Hong Kong during whole study period, except air pressure (Z=0.165, P=0.869). After fitting GAM model, it could be found monthly mean temperature showed a negative effect (RR=0.962, 95%CI: 0.933, 0.992) on scarlet fever in Hong Kong during the period of 2004-2010. By comparison, for data in Beijing during the period of 2011-2014, the RRs of monthly mean temperature range growing 1°C and monthly sunshine duration growing 1h was equal to 1.196(1.022, 1.399) and 1.006(1.001, 1.012), respectively. The changes of meteorological effect on scarlet fever over time were not significant both in Beijing and Hong Kong. This study suggests that meteorological variables were important factors for incidence of scarlet fever during different period in Beijing and Hong Kong. It also support that some meteorological effects were opposite in different period although these differences might not completely statistically significant. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Timing and tempo of Deccan volcanism: evidence from mercury anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adatte, Thierry; Font, Eric; Mbabi Bitchong, André; Keller, Gerta; Schoene, Blair; Samperton, Kyle; Khadri, Syed

2017-04-01

Mercury is a very toxic element, with a long residence time (1-2 years) and wide distribution by aerosols. Volcanic emissions and coal combustion are the two main natural sources of mercury. Several studies [1-4] evaluated the relationship between Hg anomalies in sediments and LIP activity across mass extinction horizons. The bulk (80%) of Deccan Trap eruptions occurred over a relatively short time interval in magnetic polarity C29r. U-Pb zircon geochronology reveals the onset of this main eruption phase 250 ky before the Cretaceous-Tertiary (KT) mass extinction and continued into the early Danian suggesting a cause-and-effect relationship [5]. In a related study we investigate the mercury (Hg) contents of sections in France (Bidart), Spain (Zumaya), Denmark (Nye Klov), Austria (Gams), Italy (Gubbio), Tunisia (Elles, El Kef), Egypt (Sinai), India (Megalaya), Texas USA (Brazos River) and Mexico (La Parida). In all sections, results show Hg concentrations are more than 2 orders of magnitude greater during the last 100ky of the Maastrichtian up to the early Danian P1a zone (first 380 Ky of the Paleocene). These Hg anomalies are correlative with the main Deccan eruption phase. Hg anomalies generally show no correlation with clay or total organic carbon contents, suggesting that the mercury enrichments resulted from higher input of atmospheric Hg species into the marine realm, rather than organic matter scavenging and/or increased run-off. At Gams, Bidart and Elles, Hg anomalies correlate with high shell fragmentation and dissolution effects in planktic foraminifera indicating that paleoenvironmental and paleoclimate changes drastically affected marine biodiversity. These observations provide further support that Deccan volcanism played a key role in increasing atmospheric CO2 and SO2 levels that resulted in global warming and acidified oceans, increasing biotic stress that predisposed faunas to eventual extinction at the KTB.

The ESPAT tool: a general-purpose DSS shell for solving stochastic optimization problems in complex river-aquifer systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macian-Sorribes, Hector; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Tilmant, Amaury

2015-04-01

Stochastic programming methods are better suited to deal with the inherent uncertainty of inflow time series in water resource management. However, one of the most important hurdles in their use in practical implementations is the lack of generalized Decision Support System (DSS) shells, usually based on a deterministic approach. The purpose of this contribution is to present a general-purpose DSS shell, named Explicit Stochastic Programming Advanced Tool (ESPAT), able to build and solve stochastic programming problems for most water resource systems. It implements a hydro-economic approach, optimizing the total system benefits as the sum of the benefits obtained by each user. It has been coded using GAMS, and implements a Microsoft Excel interface with a GAMS-Excel link that allows the user to introduce the required data and recover the results. Therefore, no GAMS skills are required to run the program. The tool is divided into four modules according to its capabilities: 1) the ESPATR module, which performs stochastic optimization procedures in surface water systems using a Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) approach; 2) the ESPAT_RA module, which optimizes coupled surface-groundwater systems using a modified SDDP approach; 3) the ESPAT_SDP module, capable of performing stochastic optimization procedures in small-size surface systems using a standard SDP approach; and 4) the ESPAT_DET module, which implements a deterministic programming procedure using non-linear programming, able to solve deterministic optimization problems in complex surface-groundwater river basins. The case study of the Mijares river basin (Spain) is used to illustrate the method. It consists in two reservoirs in series, one aquifer and four agricultural demand sites currently managed using historical (XIV century) rights, which give priority to the most traditional irrigation district over the XX century agricultural developments. Its size makes it possible to use either the SDP or the SDDP methods. The independent use of surface and groundwater can be examined with and without the aquifer. The ESPAT_DET, ESPATR and ESPAT_SDP modules were executed for the surface system, while the ESPAT_RA and the ESPAT_DET modules were run for the surface-groundwater system. The surface system's results show a similar performance between the ESPAT_SDP and ESPATR modules, with outperform the one showed by the current policies besides being outperformed by the ESPAT_DET results, which have the advantage of the perfect foresight. The surface-groundwater system's results show a robust situation in which the differences between the module's results and the current policies are lower due the use of pumped groundwater in the XX century crops when surface water is scarce. The results are realistic, with the deterministic optimization outperforming the stochastic one, which at the same time outperforms the current policies; showing that the tool is able to stochastically optimize river-aquifer water resources systems. We are currently working in the application of these tools in the analysis of changes in systems' operation under global change conditions. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT: This study has been partially supported by the IMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-1-R) with Spanish MINECO (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad) funds.

Multi-approach mapping to help spatial planning and management of the kelp species L. digitata and L. hyperborea: Case study of the Molène Archipelago, Brittany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bajjouk, Touria; Rochette, Sébastien; Laurans, Martial; Ehrhold, Axel; Hamdi, Anouar; Le Niliot, Philippe

2015-06-01

The Molène Archipelago in Brittany (France) hosts one of the largest kelp forests in Europe. Beyond their recognized ecological importance as an essential habitat and food for a variety of marine species, kelp also contributes towards regional economies by means of the alginate industry. Thousands of tons of kelp are collected each year for the needs of the chemical and food industries. Kelp harvesting in Brittany mainly concerns two species, Laminaria digitata (59,000 t) and Laminaria hyperborea (24,000 t), that, together, represent approximately 95% of the national landings. Estimating the available standing stock and its distribution is a clear need for providing appropriate and sustainable management measures. Prior to estimating the spatial distribution of biomasses, we produced a detailed seabed topography map with accurate hard substrate delineation thanks to surveys and appropriate processing of airborne optical and acoustic imaging. Habitat suitability models of presence-absence and biomass were then developed for each species by relating in situ observations from underwater video and sampling to the many biotic and abiotic factors that may govern kelp species distribution. Our statistical approach combining generalized additive models (GAM) in a delta approach also provided spatial uncertainty associated with each prediction to help management decisions. This study confirmed that the adopted strategy, based on an integrated approach, enhanced knowledge on kelp biomass distributions in the Molène Archipelago and provided a promising direct link between research and management. Indeed, the high resolution topography and hard substrate maps produced for the study greatly improved knowledge on the sea bottom of the area. This was also of major importance for an accurate mapping of kelp distribution. The quality of the habitat suitability models was verified with fishing effort data (RECOPESCA program) and confirmed by local managers and kelp harvesters. Based on the biomass maps produced and their associated confidence intervals, we proposed more precise management rules than those already in use for both L. digitata and L. hyperborea. Our mapping approach is a first step towards sustainable kelp species management in the area. Introducing higher resolution environmental variables and population dynamics would help interannual management.

Investigating Annual Diving Behaviour by Hooded Seals (Cystophora cristata) within the Northwest Atlantic Ocean

PubMed Central

Andersen, Julie M.; Skern-Mauritzen, Mette; Boehme, Lars; Wiersma, Yolanda F.; Rosing-Asvid, Aqqalu; Hammill, Mike O.; Stenson, Garry B.

2013-01-01

With the exception of relatively brief periods when they reproduce and moult, hooded seals, Cystophora cristata, spend most of the year in the open ocean where they undergo feeding migrations to either recover or prepare for the next fasting period. Valuable insights into habitat use and diving behaviour during these periods have been obtained by attaching Satellite Relay Data Loggers (SRDLs) to 51 Northwest (NW) Atlantic hooded seals (33 females and 18 males) during ice-bound fasting periods (2004−2008). Using General Additive Models (GAMs) we describe habitat use in terms of First Passage Time (FPT) and analyse how bathymetry, seasonality and FPT influence the hooded seals’ diving behaviour described by maximum dive depth, dive duration and surface duration. Adult NW Atlantic hooded seals exhibit a change in diving activity in areas where they spend >20 h by increasing maximum dive depth, dive duration and surface duration, indicating a restricted search behaviour. We found that male and female hooded seals are spatially segregated and that diving behaviour varies between sexes in relation to habitat properties and seasonality. Migration periods are described by increased dive duration for both sexes with a peak in May, October and January. Males demonstrated an increase in dive depth and dive duration towards May (post-breeding/pre-moult) and August–October (post-moult/pre-breeding) but did not show any pronounced increase in surface duration. Females dived deepest and had the highest surface duration between December and January (post-moult/pre-breeding). Our results suggest that the smaller females may have a greater need to recover from dives than that of the larger males. Horizontal segregation could have evolved as a result of a resource partitioning strategy to avoid sexual competition or that the energy requirements of males and females are different due to different energy expenditure during fasting periods. PMID:24282541

Effect modification of the association between short-term meteorological factors and mortality by urban heat islands in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Goggins, William B; Chan, Emily Y Y; Ng, Edward; Ren, Chao; Chen, Liang

2012-01-01

Prior studies from around the world have indicated that very high temperatures tend to increase summertime mortality. However possible effect modification by urban micro heat islands has only been examined by a few studies in North America and Europe. This study examined whether daily mortality in micro heat island areas of Hong Kong was more sensitive to short term changes in meteorological conditions than in other areas. An urban heat island index (UHII) was calculated for each of Hong Kong's 248 geographical tertiary planning units (TPU). Daily counts of all natural deaths among Hong Kong residents were stratified according to whether the place of residence of the decedent was in a TPU with high (above the median) or low UHII. Poisson Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) were used to estimate the association between meteorological variables and mortality while adjusting for trend, seasonality, pollutants and flu epidemics. Analyses were restricted to the hot season (June-September). Mean temperatures (lags 0-4) above 29 °C and low mean wind speeds (lags 0-4) were significantly associated with higher daily mortality and these associations were stronger in areas with high UHII. A 1 °C rise above 29 °C was associated with a 4.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.7%, 7.6%) increase in natural mortality in areas with high UHII but only a 0.7% (95% CI: -2.4%, 3.9%) increase in low UHII areas. Lower mean wind speeds (5(th) percentile vs. 95(th) percentile) were associated with a 5.7% (95% CI: 2.7, 8.9) mortality increase in high UHII areas vs. a -0.3% (95% CI: -3.2%, 2.6%) change in low UHII areas. The results suggest that urban micro heat islands exacerbate the negative health consequences of high temperatures and low wind speeds. Urban planning measures designed to mitigate heat island effects may lessen the health effects of unfavorable summertime meteorological conditions.

Seasonal distribution of Dall's porpoise in Prince William Sound, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moran, John R.; O'Dell, Matthew B.; Arimitsu, Mayumi L.; Straley, Janice M.; Dickson, Danielle M. S.

2018-01-01

Dall's porpoise, Phocoenoides dalli, are a conspicuous predator in the Prince William Sound ecosystem, yet there has been little effort directed towards monitoring this species since the 1980s, prior to the Exxon Valdez oil spill. We used vessel-based surveys to examine the seasonal distribution of Dall's porpoise in the waters of Prince William Sound during eight years from 2007 to 2015. Over the course of 168 days and 15,653 km of survey effort, 921 Dall's porpoise were encountered in 210 groups. We estimate an encounter rate of 0.061 porpoise/km traveled or 1 porpoise encountered for every 16.5 km traveled. Dall's porpoise were found throughout the year in Prince William Sound, and used a wide range of habitats, including those not considered typical of the species, such as bays, shallow water, and nearshore waters. Dall's porpoise seasonally shifted their center of distribution from the western passages in fall to the bays of the eastern Sound in winter and spring. Dall's porpoises were widely dispersed throughout the Sound in summer. We identified potential Dall's porpoise habitat (depth, slope, and distance from shore) within Prince William Sound using generalized additive models (GAM). Dall's porpoise were found in deeper water during summer and in shallowest water during spring. We propose that their use of novel habitats is a function of reduced predation risk associated with the decline of their main predator, killer whales (Orcinus orca), following the Exxon Valdez oil spill, and the presence of overwintering and spawning Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii). While the size of the Dall's porpoise population within Prince William Sound remains unknown, our encounter rates were lower than those reported in the 1970s. Their high metabolic rate and ubiquitous presence makes them one of the more important, yet understudied, forage fish predators in the region.

Ambient temperature enhanced acute cardiovascular-respiratory mortality effects of PM2.5 in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Li, Yi; Ma, Zhiqiang; Zheng, Canjun; Shang, Yu

2015-12-01

Studies have shown that temperature could modify the effect of ambient fine particles on mortality risk. In assessing air pollution effects, temperature is usually considered as a confounder. However, ambient temperature can alter people's physiological response to air pollution and might "modify" the impact of air pollution on health outcomes. This study investigated the interaction between daily PM2.5 and daily mean temperature in Beijing, China, using data for the period 2005-2009. Bivariate PM2.5-temperature response surfaces and temperature-stratified generalized additive model (GAM) were applied to study the effect of PM2.5 on cardiovascular, respiratory mortality, and total non-accidental mortality across different temperature levels. We found that low temperature could significantly enhance the effect of PM2.5 on cardiovascular mortality. For an increase of 10 μg/m(3) in PM2.5 concentration in the lowest temperature range (-9.7∼2.6 °C), the relative risk (RR) of cardiovascular mortality increased 1.27 % (95 % CI 0.38∼2.17 %), which was higher than that of the whole temperature range (0.59 %, 95 % CI 0.22-1.16 %). The largest effect of PM2.5 on respiratory mortality appeared in the high temperature range. For an increase of 10 μg/m(3) in PM2.5 concentration, RR of respiratory mortality increased 1.70 % (95 % CI 0.92∼3.33 %) in the highest level (23.50∼31.80 °C). For the total non-accidental mortality, significant associations appeared only in low temperature levels (-9.7∼2.6 °C): for an increase of 10 μg/m(3) in current day PM2.5 concentration, RR increased 1.27 % (95 % CI 0.46∼2.00 %) in the lowest temperature level. No lag effect was observed. The results suggest that in air pollution mortality time series studies, the possibility of an interaction between air pollution and temperature should be considered.

Identification of factors influencing shark catch and mortality in the Marshall Islands tuna longline fishery and management implications.

PubMed

Bromhead, D; Clarke, S; Hoyle, S; Muller, B; Sharples, P; Harley, S

2012-04-01

Recent average annual catches of sharks by tuna longline vessels fishing in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) are estimated to be between 1583 and 2274 t. Although 22 shark species have been recorded by the observer programme for this fishery, 80% of the annual catch comprises only five species: blue shark Prionace glauca, silky shark Carcharhinus falciformis, bigeye thresher shark Alopias superciliosus, pelagic thresher shark Alopias pelagicus and oceanic whitetip shark Carcharhinus longimanus. Wire leaders (i.e. branch lines or traces) were also used by nearly all observed vessels. Generalized additive model (GAM)-based analyses of catch rates indicated that P. glauca and A. superciliosus are caught in higher numbers when vessels fish in relatively cooler waters, at night, close to the full moon, when the 27° C thermocline is close to the surface and during El Niño conditions. In contrast, C. falciformis, A. pelagicus and C. longimanus are caught in higher numbers when shark lines are used (all three species) or hooks are set at a shallow depth (A. pelagicus and C. longimanus and, also, P. glauca). These findings are generally consistent with current knowledge of these species' habitat preferences, movement and distribution. The results of these analyses were combined with information pertaining to shark condition and fate upon capture to compare the likely effectiveness of a range of potential measures for reducing shark mortality in the longline fishery. Of the options considered, the most effective would be to combine measures that reduce the catch rate (e.g. restrictions on the use of wire leaders, shark baits and shark lines) with measures that increase survival rates after post-capture release (e.g. finning bans). © 2012 Secrtariat of the Pacific Community. Journal of Fish Biology © 2012 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Distribution and Habitat Associations of Billfish and Swordfish Larvae across Mesoscale Features in the Gulf of Mexico

PubMed Central

Rooker, Jay R.; Simms, Jeff R.; Wells, R. J. David; Holt, Scott A.; Holt, G. Joan; Graves, John E.; Furey, Nathan B.

2012-01-01

Ichthyoplankton surveys were conducted in surface waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico (NGoM) over a three-year period (2006–2008) to determine the relative value of this region as early life habitat of sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus), blue marlin (Makaira nigricans), white marlin (Kajikia albida), and swordfish (Xiphias gladius). Sailfish were the dominant billfish collected in summer surveys, and larvae were present at 37.5% of the stations sampled. Blue marlin and white marlin larvae were present at 25.0% and 4.6% of the stations sampled, respectively, while swordfish occurred at 17.2% of the stations. Areas of peak production were detected and maximum density estimates for sailfish (22.09 larvae 1000 m−2) were significantly higher than the three other species: blue marlin (9.62 larvae 1000 m−2), white marlin (5.44 larvae 1000 m−2), and swordfish (4.67 larvae 1000 m−2). The distribution and abundance of billfish and swordfish larvae varied spatially and temporally, and several environmental variables (sea surface temperature, salinity, sea surface height, distance to the Loop Current, current velocity, water depth, and Sargassum biomass) were deemed to be influential variables in generalized additive models (GAMs). Mesoscale features in the NGoM affected the distribution and abundance of billfish and swordfish larvae, with densities typically higher in frontal zones or areas proximal to the Loop Current. Habitat suitability of all four species was strongly linked to physicochemical attributes of the water masses they inhabited, and observed abundance was higher in slope waters with lower sea surface temperature and higher salinity. Our results highlight the value of the NGoM as early life habitat of billfishes and swordfish, and represent valuable baseline data for evaluating anthropogenic effects (i.e., Deepwater Horizon oil spill) on the Atlantic billfish and swordfish populations. PMID:22509277

Distribution and habitat associations of billfish and swordfish larvae across mesoscale features in the Gulf of Mexico.

PubMed

Rooker, Jay R; Simms, Jeff R; Wells, R J David; Holt, Scott A; Holt, G Joan; Graves, John E; Furey, Nathan B

2012-01-01

Ichthyoplankton surveys were conducted in surface waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico (NGoM) over a three-year period (2006-2008) to determine the relative value of this region as early life habitat of sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus), blue marlin (Makaira nigricans), white marlin (Kajikia albida), and swordfish (Xiphias gladius). Sailfish were the dominant billfish collected in summer surveys, and larvae were present at 37.5% of the stations sampled. Blue marlin and white marlin larvae were present at 25.0% and 4.6% of the stations sampled, respectively, while swordfish occurred at 17.2% of the stations. Areas of peak production were detected and maximum density estimates for sailfish (22.09 larvae 1000 m(-2)) were significantly higher than the three other species: blue marlin (9.62 larvae 1000 m(-2)), white marlin (5.44 larvae 1000 m(-2)), and swordfish (4.67 larvae 1000 m(-2)). The distribution and abundance of billfish and swordfish larvae varied spatially and temporally, and several environmental variables (sea surface temperature, salinity, sea surface height, distance to the Loop Current, current velocity, water depth, and Sargassum biomass) were deemed to be influential variables in generalized additive models (GAMs). Mesoscale features in the NGoM affected the distribution and abundance of billfish and swordfish larvae, with densities typically higher in frontal zones or areas proximal to the Loop Current. Habitat suitability of all four species was strongly linked to physicochemical attributes of the water masses they inhabited, and observed abundance was higher in slope waters with lower sea surface temperature and higher salinity. Our results highlight the value of the NGoM as early life habitat of billfishes and swordfish, and represent valuable baseline data for evaluating anthropogenic effects (i.e., Deepwater Horizon oil spill) on the Atlantic billfish and swordfish populations.

The association between diurnal temperature range and emergency room admissions for cardiovascular, respiratory, digestive and genitourinary disease among the elderly: a time series study.

PubMed

Wang, Min-zhen; Zheng, Shan; He, Shi-lin; Li, Bei; Teng, Huai-jin; Wang, Shi-gong; Yin, Ling; Shang, Ke-zheng; Li, Tan-shi

2013-07-01

To evaluate the short-term effect of diurnal temperature range (DTR) on emergency room (ER) admissions among elderly adults in Beijing. After controlling the long-time and seasonal trend, weather, air pollution and other confounding factors, a semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the exposure-effect relationship between DTR and daily ER admissions among elderly adults with different lag structures from 2009 to 2011 in Beijing. We examined the effects of DTR for stratified groups by age and gender, and conducted the modifying effect of season on DTR to test the possible interaction. Significant associations were found between DTR and four major causes of daily ER admissions among elderly adults in Beijing. A 1 °C increase in the 8-day moving average of DTR (lag 07) corresponded to an increase of 2.08% (95% CI: 0.88%-3.29%) in respiratory ER admissions and 2.14% (95% CI: 0.71%-3.59%) in digestive ER admissions. A 1 °C increase in the 3-day and 6-day moving average of DTR (lag 02 and lag 05) corresponded to a 0.76% (95% CI: 0.07%-1.46%) increase in cardiovascular ER admissions, and 1.81% (95% CI: 0.21%-3.45%) increase in genitourinary ER admissions, respectively. The people aged 75 years and older were associated more strongly with DTR than the 65-74 age group. The modifying effect of season on DTR was observed and it was various in four causes. This study strengthens the evidence that DTR is an independent risk factor for ER admissions among elderly persons. Some prevention programs that target the elderly and other high risk subgroups for impending large temperature changes may reduce the impact of DTR on people's health. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Satellite Phenology Observations Inform Peak Season of Allergenic Grass Pollen Aerobiology across Two Continents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huete, A. R.; Devadas, R.; Davies, J.

2015-12-01

Pollen exposure and prevalence of allergenic diseases have increased in many parts of the world during the last 30 years, with exposure to aeroallergen grass pollen expected to intensify with climate change, raising increased concerns for allergic diseases. The primary contributing factors to higher allergenic plant species presence are thought to be climate change, land conversion, and biotic mixing of species. Conventional methods for monitoring airborne pollen are hampered by a lack of sampling sites and heavily rely on meteorology with less attention to land cover updates and monitoring of key allergenic species phenology stages. Satellite remote sensing offers an alternative method to overcome the restrictive coverage afforded by in situ pollen networks by virtue of its synoptic coverage and repeatability of measurements that enable timely updates of land cover and land use information and monitoring landscape dynamics and interactions with human activity and climate. In this study, we assessed the potential of satellite observations of urban/peri-urban environments to directly inform landscape conditions conducive to pollen emissions. We found satellite measurements of grass cover phenological evolution to be highly correlated with in situ aerobiological grass pollen concentrations in five urban centres located across two hemispheres (Australia and France). Satellite greenness data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were found to be strongly synchronous with grass pollen aerobiology in both temperate grass dominated sites (France and Melbourne), as well as in Sydney, where multiple pollen peaks coincided with the presence of subtropical grasses. Employing general additive models (GAM), the satellite phenology data provided strong predictive capabilities to inform airborne pollen levels and forecast periods of grass pollen emissions at all five sites. Satellite phenology offer promising opportunities of improving public health risk management through dissemination of timely data for use in public health action and alerts and to minimise the impact of these common chronic conditions.

Ambient temperature enhanced acute cardiovascular-respiratory mortality effects of PM2.5 in Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yi; Ma, Zhiqiang; Zheng, Canjun; Shang, Yu

2015-12-01

Studies have shown that temperature could modify the effect of ambient fine particles on mortality risk. In assessing air pollution effects, temperature is usually considered as a confounder. However, ambient temperature can alter people's physiological response to air pollution and might "modify" the impact of air pollution on health outcomes. This study investigated the interaction between daily PM2.5 and daily mean temperature in Beijing, China, using data for the period 2005-2009. Bivariate PM2.5-temperature response surfaces and temperature-stratified generalized additive model (GAM) were applied to study the effect of PM2.5 on cardiovascular, respiratory mortality, and total non-accidental mortality across different temperature levels. We found that low temperature could significantly enhance the effect of PM2.5 on cardiovascular mortality. For an increase of 10 μg/m3 in PM2.5 concentration in the lowest temperature range (-9.7˜2.6 °C), the relative risk (RR) of cardiovascular mortality increased 1.27 % (95 % CI 0.38˜2.17 %), which was higher than that of the whole temperature range (0.59 %, 95 % CI 0.22-1.16 %). The largest effect of PM2.5 on respiratory mortality appeared in the high temperature range. For an increase of 10 μg/m3 in PM2.5 concentration, RR of respiratory mortality increased 1.70 % (95 % CI 0.92˜3.33 %) in the highest level (23.50˜31.80 °C). For the total non-accidental mortality, significant associations appeared only in low temperature levels (-9.7˜2.6 °C): for an increase of 10 μg/m3 in current day PM2.5 concentration, RR increased 1.27 % (95 % CI 0.46˜2.00 %) in the lowest temperature level. No lag effect was observed. The results suggest that in air pollution mortality time series studies, the possibility of an interaction between air pollution and temperature should be considered.

Optimal Renewable Energy Integration into Refinery with CO2 Emissions Consideration: An Economic Feasibility Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alnifro, M.; Taqvi, S. T.; Ahmad, M. S.; Bensaida, K.; Elkamel, A.

2017-08-01

With increasing global energy demand and declining energy return on energy invested (EROEI) of crude oil, global energy consumption by the O&G industry has increased drastically over the past few years. In addition, this energy increase has led to an increase GHG emissions, resulting in adverse environmental effects. On the other hand, electricity generation through renewable resources have become relatively cost competitive to fossil based energy sources in a much ‘cleaner’ way. In this study, renewable energy is integrated optimally into a refinery considering costs and CO2 emissions. Using Aspen HYSYS, a refinery in the Middle East was simulated to estimate the energy demand by different processing units. An LP problem was formulated based on existing solar energy systems and wind potential in the region. The multi-objective function, minimizing cost as well as CO2 emissions, was solved using GAMS to determine optimal energy distribution from each energy source to units within the refinery. Additionally, an economic feasibility study was carried out to determine the viability of renewable energy technology project implementation to overcome energy requirement of the refinery. Electricity generation through all renewable energy sources considered (i.e. solar PV, solar CSP and wind) were found feasible based on their low levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). The payback period for a Solar CSP project, with an annual capacity of about 411 GWh and a lifetime of 30 years, was found to be 10 years. In contrast, the payback period for Solar PV and Wind were calculated to be 7 and 6 years, respectively. This opens up possibilities for integrating renewables into the refining sector as well as optimizing multiple energy carrier systems within the crude oil industry

Impact of community disadvantage and air pollution burden on geographic disparities of ovarian cancer survival in California.

PubMed

Vieira, Verónica M; Villanueva, Carolina; Chang, Jenny; Ziogas, Argyrios; Bristow, Robert E

2017-07-01

Ovarian cancer survival varies geographically throughout California. The objective of this study is to determine the impact of living in disadvantaged communities on spatial patterns of survival disparities. Including a bivariate spatial smooth of geographic location within the Cox proportional hazard models is an effective approach for spatial analyses of cancer survival. Women diagnosed with advanced Stage IIIC/IV epithelial ovarian cancer (1996-2006) were identified from the California Cancer Registry. The impact of living in disadvantaged communities, as measured by the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment cumulative CalEnviroScreen 2.0 score, on geographic disparities in survival was assessed while controlling for age, tumor characteristics, quality of care, and race. Community-level air quality indicators and socioeconomic status (SES) were also independently examined in secondary analyses. The Cox proportional hazard spatial methods are available in the MapGAM package implemented in R. An increase in the community disadvantage from the 5th (less disadvantage) to the 95th percentile (more disadvantage) was significantly associated with poorer ovarian cancer survival (hazard ratio [HR], 1.16; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07-1.26). Ozone levels and SES were the most influential indicators on geographic disparities that warrant further investigation. The use of a bivariate smoother of location within the survival model allows for more advanced spatial analyses for exploring potential air quality-related predictors of geographic disparities. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Environmental factors influencing the spatio-temporal distribution of Carybdea marsupialis (Lineo, 1978, Cubozoa) in South-Western Mediterranean coasts.

PubMed

Canepa, Antonio; Fuentes, Verónica; Bosch-Belmar, Mar; Acevedo, Melissa; Toledo-Guedes, Kilian; Ortiz, Antonio; Durá, Elia; Bordehore, César; Gili, Josep-Maria

2017-01-01

Jellyfish blooms cause important ecological and socio-economic problems. Among jellyfish, cubozoans are infamous for their painful, sometimes deadly, stings and are a major public concern in tropical to subtropical areas; however, there is little information about the possible causes of their outbreaks. After a bloom of the cubomedusa Carybdea marsupialis (Carybdeidae) along the coast of Denia (SW Mediterranean, Spain) in 2008 with negative consequences for local tourism, the necessity to understand the ecological restrictions on medusae abundance was evident. Here we use different models (GAM and zero-inflated models) to understand the environmental and human related factors influencing the abundance and distribution of C. marsupialis along the coast of Denia. Selected variables differed among medusae size classes, showing different environmental restriction associated to the developmental stages of the species. Variables implicated with dispersion (e.g. wind and current) affected mostly small and medium size classes. Sea surface temperature, salinity and proxies of primary production (chl a, phosphates, nitrates) were related to the abundances of small and large size classes, highlighting the roles of springtime salinity changes and increased primary production that may promote and maintain high densities of this species. The increased primary (and secondary) production due to anthropogenic impact is implicated as the factor enabling high numbers of C. marsupialis to thrive. Recommendations for monitoring blooms of this species along the study area and applicable to Mediterranean Sea include focus effort in coastal waters where productivity have been enriched by anthropogenic activities.

Advancements in OSeMOSYS - the Open Source energy MOdelling SYStem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardumi, Francesco; Almulla, Youssef; Shivakumar, Abhishek; Taliotis, Constantinos; Howells, Mark

2017-04-01

This work provides a review of the latest developments and applications of OSeMOSYS energy systems model generator. OSeMOSYS was launched at Oxford university in 2011, including co-authors from UCL, UNIDO, UCT, Stanford, PSI and other institutions. It was designed to fill a gap in the energy modelling toolkit, where no open source optimising model generators were available at the time. OSeMOSYS is free, open source and accessible. Written in GNU MathProg programming language, it can generate from small village energy models up to global multi-resource integrated - Climate, Land, Energy, Water - models. In its most widespread version it calculates what investments to make, when, at what capacity and how to operate them, to meet given final demands and policy targets at the lowest cost. OSeMOSYS is structured into blocks of functionalities, each consisting in a stand-alone set of equations which can be plugged into the core code to add specific insights for the case-study of interest. Originally, seven blocks of functionalities for the objective function, costs, storage, capacity adequacy, energy balance, constraints, emissions were provided, documented by plain English descriptions and algebraic formulations. Recently, the block for storage was deeply revised and developed, while new blocks of functionality for studying short-term implications of energy planning onto the electricity system were designed. These include equations for computing 1) the reserve capacity dispatch; 2) the costs of flexible operation of power plants and 3) the reserve capacity demand as a function of the penetration of intermittent renewables were introduced. Additionally, a revision of the whole code was completed, as the result of a public call launched and led by UNite Ideas. This allowed the computational time to be greatly reduced and opened up the path to refinements of the scales of analysis. Finally, the code was made available in Python and GAMS programming languages, thus engaging two of the widest existing communities of programmers. Such developments allowed a number of applications to be produced at different scales. Regional and country models were generated for the whole of South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. A Pan-European model is under development. Models of Cyprus and Tunisia, detailed down to the individual power plant, are among the latest applications. Finally, integrated assessment water-energy models have been generated for regions in Central Asia and the Balkans, in the framework of the UNECE Water Convention. These look into trans-boundary issues related to the water and energy management along river basins, including detailed representations of water storage and cascading power plants. This multiplicity of developments and applications of OSeMOSYS engages a wide community of users and decision-makers and fosters the use of modelling tools for energy planning. This fulfils a scientific and social mission to empower communities with the development of solutions for a better access to energy.

Quantifying unpredictability: A multiple-model approach based on satellite imagery data from Mediterranean ponds

PubMed Central

García-Roger, Eduardo Moisés; Franch, Belen; Carmona, María José; Serra, Manuel

2017-01-01

Fluctuations in environmental parameters are increasingly being recognized as essential features of any habitat. The quantification of whether environmental fluctuations are prevalently predictable or unpredictable is remarkably relevant to understanding the evolutionary responses of organisms. However, when characterizing the relevant features of natural habitats, ecologists typically face two problems: (1) gathering long-term data and (2) handling the hard-won data. This paper takes advantage of the free access to long-term recordings of remote sensing data (27 years, Landsat TM/ETM+) to assess a set of environmental models for estimating environmental predictability. The case study included 20 Mediterranean saline ponds and lakes, and the focal variable was the water-surface area. This study first aimed to produce a method for accurately estimating the water-surface area from satellite images. Saline ponds can develop salt-crusted areas that make it difficult to distinguish between soil and water. This challenge was addressed using a novel pipeline that combines band ratio water indices and the short near-infrared band as a salt filter. The study then extracted the predictable and unpredictable components of variation in the water-surface area. Two different approaches, each showing variations in the parameters, were used to obtain the stochastic variation around a regular pattern with the objective of dissecting the effect of assumptions on predictability estimations. The first approach, which is based on Colwell’s predictability metrics, transforms the focal variable into a nominal one. The resulting discrete categories define the relevant variations in the water-surface area. In the second approach, we introduced General Additive Model (GAM) fitting as a new metric for quantifying predictability. Both approaches produced a wide range of predictability for the studied ponds. Some model assumptions–which are considered very different a priori–had minor effects, whereas others produced predictability estimations that showed some degree of divergence. We hypothesize that these diverging estimations of predictability reflect the effect of fluctuations on different types of organisms. The fluctuation analysis described in this manuscript is applicable to a wide variety of systems, including both aquatic and non-aquatic systems, and will be valuable for quantifying and characterizing predictability, which is essential within the expected global increase in the unpredictability of environmental fluctuations. We advocate that a priori information for organisms of interest should be used to select the most suitable metrics for estimating predictability, and we provide some guidelines for this approach. PMID:29121667

Use of GIS Mapping as a Public Health Tool—From Cholera to Cancer

PubMed Central

Musa, George J.; Chiang, Po-Huang; Sylk, Tyler; Bavley, Rachel; Keating, William; Lakew, Bereketab; Tsou, Hui-Chen; Hoven, Christina W.

2013-01-01

The field of medical geographic information systems (Medical GIS) has become extremely useful in understanding the bigger picture of public health. The discipline holds a substantial capacity to understand not only differences, but also similarities in population health all over the world. The main goal of marrying the disciplines of medical geography, public health and informatics is to understand how countless health issues impact populations, and the trends by which these populations are affected. From the 1990s to today, this practical approach has become a valued and progressive system in analyzing medical and epidemiological phenomena ranging from cholera to cancer. The instruments supporting this field include geographic information systems (GIS), disease surveillance, big data, and analytical approaches like the Geographical Analysis Machine (GAM), Dynamic Continuous Area Space Time Analysis (DYCAST), cellular automata, agent-based modeling, spatial statistics and self-organizing maps. The positive effects on disease mapping have proven to be tremendous as these instruments continue to have a great impact on the mission to improve worldwide health care. While traditional uses of GIS in public health are static and lacking real-time components, implementing a space-time animation in these instruments will be monumental as technology and data continue to grow. PMID:25114567

The Effect of Online Violent Video Games on Levels of Aggression

PubMed Central

Hollingdale, Jack; Greitemeyer, Tobias

2014-01-01

Background In recent years the video game industry has surpassed both the music and video industries in sales. Currently violent video games are among the most popular video games played by consumers, most specifically First-Person Shooters (FPS). Technological advancements in game play experience including the ability to play online has accounted for this increase in popularity. Previous research, utilising the General Aggression Model (GAM), has identified that violent video games increase levels of aggression. Little is known, however, as to the effect of playing a violent video game online. Methods/Principal Findings Participants (N = 101) were randomly assigned to one of four experimental conditions; neutral video game—offline, neutral video game—online, violent video game—offline and violent video game—online. Following this they completed questionnaires to assess their attitudes towards the game and engaged in a chilli sauce paradigm to measure behavioural aggression. The results identified that participants who played a violent video game exhibited more aggression than those who played a neutral video game. Furthermore, this main effect was not particularly pronounced when the game was played online. Conclusions/Significance These findings suggest that both playing violent video games online and offline compared to playing neutral video games increases aggression. PMID:25391143

Canyons and gorges as potential geotourism destinations in Serbia: comparative analysis from two perspectives - general geotourists' and pure geotourists'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Božić, Sanja; Tomić, Nemanja

2015-10-01

Serbia represents one of those countries which have not yet differentiated themselves on the world tourism map. However, it has an immense but still unrevealed potential for geotourism development. In this paper we analyzed several remarkable canyons and gorges of great scientific importance and geotourism potential. These sites include the Djerdap Gorge and Lazar River Canyon, located in Eastern Serbia and the Ovcar-Kablar Gorge and Uvac Canyon located in Western Serbia. One of the main goals of this paper was to analyze and compare the current state and tourism potential of these geosites by using the M-GAM model for geosite assessment. However, the principal aim of the paper is to analyze how important is each subindicator in the assessment process for different market segments. In this paper, we also analyzed how giving different importance to subindicators can influence the position of the geosites in the matrix indicating different assessment done by two chosen market segments. The research showed that general geotourists appreciate considerably different values when assessing a geosite in comparison to pure geotourists. The paper can be used as framework for developing the tourism management strategy of geosites taking into consideration the needs and preferences of the target market segments.

Use of GIS Mapping as a Public Health Tool-From Cholera to Cancer.

PubMed

Musa, George J; Chiang, Po-Huang; Sylk, Tyler; Bavley, Rachel; Keating, William; Lakew, Bereketab; Tsou, Hui-Chen; Hoven, Christina W

2013-01-01

The field of medical geographic information systems (Medical GIS) has become extremely useful in understanding the bigger picture of public health. The discipline holds a substantial capacity to understand not only differences, but also similarities in population health all over the world. The main goal of marrying the disciplines of medical geography, public health and informatics is to understand how countless health issues impact populations, and the trends by which these populations are affected. From the 1990s to today, this practical approach has become a valued and progressive system in analyzing medical and epidemiological phenomena ranging from cholera to cancer. The instruments supporting this field include geographic information systems (GIS), disease surveillance, big data, and analytical approaches like the Geographical Analysis Machine (GAM), Dynamic Continuous Area Space Time Analysis (DYCAST), cellular automata, agent-based modeling, spatial statistics and self-organizing maps. The positive effects on disease mapping have proven to be tremendous as these instruments continue to have a great impact on the mission to improve worldwide health care. While traditional uses of GIS in public health are static and lacking real-time components, implementing a space-time animation in these instruments will be monumental as technology and data continue to grow.

Recruitment of shrimp ( Pandalus borealis) in the Barents Sea related to spawning stock and environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aschan, Michaela; Ingvaldsen, Randi

2009-10-01

The shrimp spawn in autumn, and the females carry their eggs as out roe until spring when the larvae hatch. Within a period of 2 months the shrimp larvae settle to the bottom. It has been claimed that the year-class strength probably is determined during the larval phase. Today's assessment and forecast of the shrimp stock productivity and potential fishing yields are weak. This is partly due to poor knowledge on population dynamics from hatching until the shrimp are caught in the fishery at the age of 3 or 4 years. We, therefore, here identify the most important abiotic and biotic factors that affect recruitment in addition to spawning stock biomass. Since 1995, a net attached to the underbelly of the survey trawl used at the annual cruise in the Barents Sea has caught juvenile shrimp. The abundance of settled shrimp larvae varies in time and space. The recruitment to the fishery has been quite stable with the exception of the 1996 year-class, which was observed as 1-year-olds but has not been registered since. The temporal pattern of the three youngest year-classes is studied in relation to abiotic factors such as sea temperature, ice index and North Atlantic Oscillation, as well as biotic factors such as spawning stock biomass and presence of copepods, euphausiids and predating cod. Recruitment indices and factors identified by the Spearmann correlation to be significantly correlated with recruitment were used as input in a principal component analysis (PCA) and a generalized additive model (GAM) was applied. Abundance of 1-year-old shrimp is positively correlated to spawning stock biomass the previous year and to temperature of the previous winter, and negatively correlated with the number of 1-year-old cod. Two-year-old shrimp show significant correlation with temperature, whereas there is a strong negative correlation with euphausiids. Three-year-old shrimp are significantly correlated with the number of 2-year-old shrimp the previous year but negatively correlated to temperature at sampling time. This is probably due to less overlap with the main predator cod when cold. Ricker functions indicate an increased density-dependent mortality with age. When predicting the recruitment of shrimp to the fishery, the spawning stock biomass, the abundance of cod and euphausiids, as well as the temperature should be included.