Science.gov

Sample records for address global warming

  1. Global Warming.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hileman, Bette

    1989-01-01

    States the foundations of the theory of global warming. Describes methodologies used to measure the changes in the atmosphere. Discusses steps currently being taken in the United States and the world to slow the warming trend. Recognizes many sources for the warming and the possible effects on the earth. (MVL)

  2. Global Warming?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eichman, Julia Christensen; Brown, Jeff A.

    1994-01-01

    Presents information and data on an experiment designed to test whether different atmosphere compositions are affected by light and temperature during both cooling and heating. Although flawed, the experiment should help students appreciate the difficulties that researchers face when trying to find evidence of global warming. (PR)

  3. The National Academy of Sciences offers a new framework for addressing global warming issues.

    PubMed

    Barnard, R C; Morgan, D L

    2000-02-01

    The recent landmark report by the National Academy of Sciences reviewed the science on which the Kyoto Protocol was based. NAS concluded that the policy choices and the mandatory reductions in greenhouse gases by the developed nations were based on incomplete science with significant uncertainties. In view of these uncertainties the NAS report developed a comprehensive strategic 10-year research program to address the basic issue of whether human activity that results in environmental changes is responsible for climate changes. The report provides a new framework for consideration of global warming issues. The UN International Panel on Climate Change (the UN science advisor) in its 1997 report to the Kyoto parties pointed out the confusing difference between scientific usage of the term "climate change" that distinguishes human from natural causes of change and the official usage that combines natural and human causes of changes in climate. The conclusion of the UN panel on human causes is equivocal. The 1999 report of the U.S. Global Science Research Committee also reached an equivocal conclusion on human causes and announced a 10-year research program to be developed in consultation with NAS. The precautionary measures provided in the 1992 UN Framework Convention differ from the ill-defined "precautionary principle" based on fear of uncertainty, and are consistent with the objectives of the NAS proposed research program. These developments together with the third report of the UN Intergovernmental Science Panel on developments in climate science due in 2001 merit consideration by the convention of the parties under the Kyoto Protocol. PMID:10715229

  4. The National Academy of Sciences offers a new framework for addressing global warming issues.

    PubMed

    Barnard, R C; Morgan, D L

    2000-02-01

    The recent landmark report by the National Academy of Sciences reviewed the science on which the Kyoto Protocol was based. NAS concluded that the policy choices and the mandatory reductions in greenhouse gases by the developed nations were based on incomplete science with significant uncertainties. In view of these uncertainties the NAS report developed a comprehensive strategic 10-year research program to address the basic issue of whether human activity that results in environmental changes is responsible for climate changes. The report provides a new framework for consideration of global warming issues. The UN International Panel on Climate Change (the UN science advisor) in its 1997 report to the Kyoto parties pointed out the confusing difference between scientific usage of the term "climate change" that distinguishes human from natural causes of change and the official usage that combines natural and human causes of changes in climate. The conclusion of the UN panel on human causes is equivocal. The 1999 report of the U.S. Global Science Research Committee also reached an equivocal conclusion on human causes and announced a 10-year research program to be developed in consultation with NAS. The precautionary measures provided in the 1992 UN Framework Convention differ from the ill-defined "precautionary principle" based on fear of uncertainty, and are consistent with the objectives of the NAS proposed research program. These developments together with the third report of the UN Intergovernmental Science Panel on developments in climate science due in 2001 merit consideration by the convention of the parties under the Kyoto Protocol.

  5. Global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Houghton, John

    2005-06-01

    'Global warming' is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of 'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the 'greenhouse effect' that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources.

  6. Economic Theory and Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uzawa, Hirofumi

    2003-08-01

    Hirofumi Uzawa's theoretical framework addresses three major problems concerning global warming and other environmental hazards. First, it considers all phenomena involved with global environmental issues that exhibit externalities of one kind or another. Secondly, it covers global environmental issues involving international and intergenerational equity and justice. Lastly, it deals with global environmental issues concerning the management of the atmosphere, the oceans, water, soil, and other natural resources having to be decided by a consensus of affected countries.

  7. Draft global warming study

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1990-01-01

    The 1990 Resource Program Global Warming Study examines potential Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) resource alternatives related to the risk of global warming. The study evaluates strategies for reducing net carbon emissions, and identifies the net carbon contribution of certain resource strategies designed to reduce those emissions. Carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) is the greenhouse gas'' most associated with electricity production. The main purpose of the global warming study is to identify possible courses of action that BPA might take to reduce its contributions to the risk of global warming and to estimate the efficacy and costs of each approach. The principal measure of effectiveness is the reduction in total atmospheric carbon emissions compared to a base case. 13 refs., 2 tabs.

  8. Long range global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Rolle, K.C.; Pulkrabek, W.W.; Fiedler, R.A.

    1995-12-31

    This paper explores one of the causes of global warming that is often overlooked, the direct heating of the environment by engineering systems. Most research and studies of global warming concentrate on the modification that is occurring to atmospheric air as a result of pollution gases being added by various systems; i.e., refrigerants, nitrogen oxides, ozone, hydrocarbons, halon, and others. This modification affects the thermal radiation balance between earth, sun and space, resulting in a decrease of radiation outflow and a slow rise in the earth`s steady state temperature. For this reason the solution to the problem is perceived as one of cleaning up the processes and effluents that are discharged into the environment. In this paper arguments are presented that suggest, that there is a far more serious cause for global warming that will manifest itself in the next two or three centuries; direct heating from the exponential growth of energy usage by humankind. Because this is a minor contributor to the global warming problem at present, it is overlooked or ignored. Energy use from the combustion of fuels and from the output of nuclear reactions eventually is manifest as warming of the surroundings. Thus, as energy is used at an ever increasing rate the consequent global warming also increases at an ever increasing rate. Eventually this rate will become equal to a few percent of solar radiation. When this happens the earth`s temperature will have risen by several degrees with catastrophic results. The trends in world energy use are reviewed and some mathematical models are presented to suggest future scenarios. These models can be used to predict when the global warming problem will become undeniably apparent, when it will become critical, and when it will become catastrophic.

  9. Model predicts global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wainger, Lisa A.

    Global greenhouse warming will be clearly identifiable by the 1990s, according to eight scientists who have been studying climate changes using computer models. Researchers at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, say that by the 2010s, most of the globe will be experiencing “substantial” warming. The level of warming will depend on amounts of trace gases, or greenhouse gases, in the atmosphere.Predictions for the next 70 years are based on computer simulations of Earth's climate. In three runs of the model, James Hansen and his colleagues looked at the effects of changing amounts of atmospheric gases with time.

  10. Is Global Warming Accelerating?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shukla, J.; Delsole, T. M.; Tippett, M. K.

    2009-12-01

    A global pattern that fluctuates naturally on decadal time scales is identified in climate simulations and observations. This newly discovered component, called the Global Multidecadal Oscillation (GMO), is related to the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation and shown to account for a substantial fraction of decadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature. IPCC-class climate models generally underestimate the variance of the GMO, and hence underestimate the decadal fluctuations due to this component of natural variability. Decomposing observed sea surface temperature into a component due to anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing plus the GMO, reveals that most multidecadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature can be accounted for by these two components alone. The fact that the GMO varies naturally on multidecadal time scales implies that it can be predicted with some skill on decadal time scales, which provides a scientific rationale for decadal predictions. Furthermore, the GMO is shown to account for about half of the warming in the last 25 years and hence a substantial fraction of the recent acceleration in the rate of increase in global average sea surface temperature. Nevertheless, in terms of the global average “well-observed” sea surface temperature, the GMO can account for only about 0.1° C in transient, decadal-scale fluctuations, not the century-long 1° C warming that has been observed during the twentieth century.

  11. Teaching Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hobson, Art

    2004-05-01

    Every citizen's education should include socially relevant science courses because, as the American Association for the Advancement of Science puts it, "Without a scientifically literate population, the outlook for a better world is not promising." I have developed a conceptual liberal-arts physics course that covers the major principles of classical physics, emphasizes modern/contemporary physics, and includes societal topics such as global warming, ozone depletion, transportation, exponential growth, scientific methodology, risk assessment, nuclear weapons, nuclear power, and the energy future. The societal topics, occupying only about 15% of the class time, appear to be the main cause of the surprising popularity of this course among non-scientists. I will outline some ideas for incorporating global warming into such a course or into any other introductory physics course. For further details, see my textbook Physics: Concepts and Connections (Prentice Hall, 3rd edition 2003).

  12. Global Warming And Meltwater

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bratu, S.

    2012-04-01

    In order to find new approaches and new ideas for my students to appreciate the importance of science in their daily life, I proposed a theme for them to debate. They had to search for global warming information and illustrations in the media, and discuss the articles they found in the classroom. This task inspired them to search for new information about this important and timely theme in science. I informed my students that all the best information about global warming and meltwater they found would be used in a poster that would help us to update the knowledge base of the Physics laboratory. I guided them to choose the most eloquent images and significant information. Searching and working to create this poster, the students arrived to better appreciate the importance of science in their daily life and to critically evaluate scientific information transmitted via the media. In the poster we created, one can find images, photos and diagrams and some interesting information: Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected evolution. In the last 100 years, the Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 °C with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain most of it is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuel. They indicate that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 2.9 °C for the lowest emissions scenario and 2.4 to 6.4 °C for the highest predictions. An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, and potentially result in expansion of subtropical deserts. Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing decrease of

  13. Global warming challenge

    SciTech Connect

    Hengeveld, H. )

    1994-11-01

    Global warming will necessitate significant adjustments in Canadian society and its economy. In 1979, the Canadian federal government created its Canadian Climate Program (CCP) in collaboration with other agencies, institutions, and individuals. It sought to coordinate national efforts to understand global and regional climate, and to promote better use of the emerging knowledge. Much of the CCP-coordinated research into sources and sinks of greenhouse gases interfaces with other national and international programs. Other researchers have become involved in the Northern Wetlands Study, a cooperative United States-Canada initiative to understand the role of huge northern bogs and muskegs in the carbon cycle. Because of the need to understand how the whole, linked climate system works, climate modeling emerged as a key focus of current research. 35 refs., 4 figs.

  14. Global Warming on Triton

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elliot, J. L.; Hammel, H. B.; Wasserman, L. H.; Franz, O. G.; McDonald, S. W.; Person, M. J.; Olkin, C. B.; Dunham, E. J.; Spencer, J. R.; Stansberry, J. A.; Buie, M. W.; Pasachoff, J. M.; Babcock, B. A.; McConnochie, T. H.

    1998-01-01

    Triton, Neptune's largest moon, has been predicted to undergo significant seasonal changes that would reveal themselves as changes in its mean frost temperature. But whether this temperature should at the present time be increasing, decreasing or constant depends on a number of parameters (such as the thermal properties of the surface, and frost migration patterns) that are unknown. Here we report observations of a recent stellar occultation by Triton which, when combined with earlier results, show that Triton has undergone a period of global warming since 1989. Our most conservative estimates of the rate of temperature and surface-pressure increase during this period imply that the atmosphere is doubling in bulk every 10 years, significantly faster than predicted by any published frost model for Triton. Our result suggests that permanent polar caps on Triton play a c dominant role in regulating seasonal atmospheric changes. Similar processes should also be active on Pluto.

  15. Warm up to the idea: Global warming is here

    SciTech Connect

    Lynch, C.F.

    1996-07-01

    This article summarizes recent information about global warming as well as the history of greenhouse gas emissions which have lead to more and more evidence of global warming. The primary source detailed is the second major study report on global warming by the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change. Along with comments about the environmental effects of global warming such as coastline submersion, the economic, social and political aspects of alleviating greenhouse emissions and the threat of global warming are discussed.

  16. Is global warming harmful to health?

    PubMed

    Epstein, P R

    2000-08-01

    Projections from computer models predict that global warming will expand the incidence and distribution of many serious medical disorders. Global warming, aside from indirectly causing death by drowning or starvation, promotes by various means the emergence, resurgence, and spread of infectious diseases. This article addresses the health effects of global warming and disrupted climate patterns in detail. Among the greatest health concerns are diseases transmitted by mosquitoes, such as malaria, dengue fever, yellow fever, and several kinds of encephalitis. Such disorders are projected to become increasingly prevalent because their insect carriers are very sensitive to meteorological conditions. In addition, floods and droughts resulting from global warming can each help trigger outbreaks by creating breeding grounds for insects whose desiccated eggs remain viable and hatch in still water. Other effects of global warming on health include the growth of opportunist populations and the increase of the incidence of waterborne diseases because of lack of clean water. In view of this, several steps are cited in order to facilitate the successful management of the dangers of global warming.

  17. Global temperatures and the global warming ``debate''

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aubrecht, Gordon

    2009-04-01

    Many ordinary citizens listen to pronouncements on talk radio casting doubt on anthropogenic global warming. Some op-ed columnists likewise cast doubts, and are read by credulous citizens. For example, on 8 March 2009, the Boston Globe published a column by Jeff Jacoby, ``Where's global warming?'' According to Jacoby, ``But it isn't such hints of a planetary warming trend that have been piling up in profusion lately. Just the opposite.'' He goes on to write, ``the science of climate change is not nearly as important as the religion of climate change,'' and blamed Al Gore for getting his mistaken views accepted. George Will at the Washington Post also expressed denial. As a result, 44% of U.S. voters, according to the January 19 2009 Rasmussen Report, blame long-term planetary trends for global warming, not human beings. Is there global cooling, as skeptics claim? We examine the temperature record.

  18. Global warming and health: a review.

    PubMed

    Amofah, G K

    1996-08-01

    The paper looks at the phenomenon of global warming and its potential health effects and outlines a number of plausible response by the health sector in developing countries to its threat. It suggests that the health sector should facilitate an international effort at addressing this challenge, mainly through advocacy, epidemiological surveillance and awareness creation.

  19. Global Warming: Physics and Facts

    SciTech Connect

    Levi, B.G.; Hafemeister, D.; Scribner, R.

    1992-05-01

    This report contains papers on: A tutorial on global atmospheric energetics and the greenhouse effect; global climate models: what and how; comparison of general circulation models; climate and the earth`s radiation budget; temperature and sea level change; short-term climate variability and predictions; the great ocean conveyor; trace gases in the atmosphere: temporal and spatial trends; the geochemical carbon cycle and the uptake of fossil fuel CO{sub 2}; forestry and global warming; the physical and policy linkages; policy implications of greenhouse warming; options for lowering US carbon dioxide emissions; options for reducing carbon dioxide emissions; and science and diplomacy: a new partnership to protect the environment.

  20. Global Warming: Physics and Facts

    SciTech Connect

    Levi, B.G. ); Hafemeister, D. , Washington, DC ); Scribner, R. )

    1992-01-01

    This report contains papers on: A tutorial on global atmospheric energetics and the greenhouse effect; global climate models: what and how; comparison of general circulation models; climate and the earth's radiation budget; temperature and sea level change; short-term climate variability and predictions; the great ocean conveyor; trace gases in the atmosphere: temporal and spatial trends; the geochemical carbon cycle and the uptake of fossil fuel CO{sub 2}; forestry and global warming; the physical and policy linkages; policy implications of greenhouse warming; options for lowering US carbon dioxide emissions; options for reducing carbon dioxide emissions; and science and diplomacy: a new partnership to protect the environment.

  1. Global warming and infectious disease.

    PubMed

    Khasnis, Atul A; Nettleman, Mary D

    2005-01-01

    Global warming has serious implications for all aspects of human life, including infectious diseases. The effect of global warming depends on the complex interaction between the human host population and the causative infectious agent. From the human standpoint, changes in the environment may trigger human migration, causing disease patterns to shift. Crop failures and famine may reduce host resistance to infections. Disease transmission may be enhanced through the scarcity and contamination of potable water sources. Importantly, significant economic and political stresses may damage the existing public health infrastructure, leaving mankind poorly prepared for unexpected epidemics. Global warming will certainly affect the abundance and distribution of disease vectors. Altitudes that are currently too cool to sustain vectors will become more conducive to them. Some vector populations may expand into new geographic areas, whereas others may disappear. Malaria, dengue, plague, and viruses causing encephalitic syndromes are among the many vector-borne diseases likely to be affected. Some models suggest that vector-borne diseases will become more common as the earth warms, although caution is needed in interpreting these predictions. Clearly, global warming will cause changes in the epidemiology of infectious diseases. The ability of mankind to react or adapt is dependent upon the magnitude and speed of the change. The outcome will also depend on our ability to recognize epidemics early, to contain them effectively, to provide appropriate treatment, and to commit resources to prevention and research.

  2. Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

    PubMed

    Salzmann, Marc

    2016-06-01

    Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K(-1) decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge. PMID:27386558

  3. Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

    PubMed Central

    Salzmann, Marc

    2016-01-01

    Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K−1 decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge. PMID:27386558

  4. Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

    PubMed

    Salzmann, Marc

    2016-06-01

    Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K(-1) decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge.

  5. Global warming: trends and effects.

    PubMed

    Tickell, C

    1993-01-01

    As animals we have been a remarkably successful species; but also as animals we are vulnerable to environmental, in particular climate change. Such change is accelerating as a result of human activity, and global warming may already be taking place. Although we can foresee the trends, we cannot yet be specific about the results. Change usually proceeds by steps rather than gradients. But warming would probably include new risks to human health and contribute to an increase in human displacement. Of course climate change is only one among other complex problems facing human society, but it is closely related to them all, including population increase, environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity. We cannot prevent global warming but we can anticipate and mitigate some of its worst effects. Peoples and governments still need persuading of the need for action and of the magnitude of the issue at stake.

  6. Addressing Global Warming, Air Pollution, Energy Security, and Jobs with Roadmaps for Changing the All-Purpose Energy Infrastructure of the 50 United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobson, M. Z.

    2014-12-01

    Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the most significant problems facing the world today. This talk discusses the development of technical and economic plans to convert the energy infrastructure of each of the 50 United States to those powered by 100% wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) for all purposes, namely electricity, transportation, industry, and heating/cooling, after energy efficiency measures have been accounted for. The plans call for all new energy to be WWS by 2020, ~80% conversion of existing energy by 2030, and 100% by 2050 through aggressive policy measures and natural transition. Resource availability, footprint and spacing areas required, jobs created versus lost, energy costs, avoided costs from air pollution mortality and morbidity and climate damage, and methods of ensuring reliability of the grid are discussed. Please see http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html

  7. Solar trends and global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benestad, R. E.; Schmidt, G. A.

    2009-07-01

    We use a suite of global climate model simulations for the 20th century to assess the contribution of solar forcing to the past trends in the global mean temperature. In particular, we examine how robust different published methodologies are at detecting and attributing solar-related climate change in the presence of intrinsic climate variability and multiple forcings. We demonstrate that naive application of linear analytical methods such as regression gives nonrobust results. We also demonstrate that the methodologies used by Scafetta and West (2005, 2006a, 2006b, 2007, 2008) are not robust to these same factors and that their error bars are significantly larger than reported. Our analysis shows that the most likely contribution from solar forcing a global warming is 7 ± 1% for the 20th century and is negligible for warming since 1980.

  8. Global warming at the summit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    During the recent summit meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Bill Clinton, the two leaders reaffirmed their concerns about global warming and the need to continue to take actions to try to reduce the threat.In a June 4 joint statement, they stressed the need to develop flexibility mechanisms, including international emissions trading, under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. They also noted that initiatives to reduce the risk of greenhouse warming, including specific mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol, could potentially promote economic growth.

  9. Cosmic Rays and Global Warming

    SciTech Connect

    Sloan, T.; Wolfendale, A. W.

    2008-01-24

    Some workers have claimed that the observed temporal correlations of (low level) terrestrial cloud cover with the cosmic ray intensity changes, due to solar modulation, are causal. The possibility arises, therefore, of a connection between cosmic rays and Global Warming. If true, the implications would be very great. We have examined this claim in some detail. So far, we have not found any evidence in support and so our conclusions are to doubt it. From the absence of corroborative evidence we estimate that less than 15% at the 95% confidence level, of the 11-year cycle warming variations are due to cosmic rays and less than 2% of the warming over the last 43 years is due to this cause. The origin of the correlation itself is probably the cycle of solar irradiance although there is, as yet, no certainty.

  10. Global warming and nuclear power

    SciTech Connect

    Wood, L., LLNL

    1998-07-10

    Nuclear fission power reactors represent a potential solution to many aspects of global change possibly induced by inputting of either particulate or carbon or sulfur oxides into the Earth`s atmosphere. Of proven technological feasibility, they presently produce high-grade heat for large-scale electricity generation, space heating and industrial process-energizing around the world, without emitting greenhouse gases or atmospheric particulates; importantly, electricity production costs from the best nuclear plants presently are closely comparable with those of the best fossil-fired plants. However, a substantial number of issues currently stand between nuclear power and widespread substitution for large stationary fossil fuel-fired systems. These include perceptual ones regarding both long-term and acute operational safety, plant decommissioning, fuel reprocessing, radwaste disposal, fissile materials diversion to military purposes and - perhaps most seriously- readily quantifiable concerns regarding long-term fuel supply and total unit electrical energy cost. We sketch a road-map for proceeding from the present situation toward a nuclear power-intensive world, addressing along the way each of the concerns which presently impede widespread nuclear substitution for fossil fuels, particularly for coal in the most populous and rapidly developing portions of the world, e.g., China and India. This `design to societal specifications` approach to large-scale nuclear fission power systems may lead to energy sources meeting essentially all stationary demands for high-temperature heat. Such advanced options offer a human population of ten billion the electricity supply levels currently enjoyed by Americans for 10,000 years. Nuclear power systems tailored to local needs-and-interests and having a common advanced technology base could reduce present-day world-wide C0{sub 2} emissions by two-fold, if universally employed. By application to small mobile demands, a second two

  11. The heated debate. [Global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Balling, R.C. Jr.

    1992-01-01

    The Heated Debate challenges head on the popular vision' of anthropogenically-caused global warming as characterized by catastrophic sea level rise, drought-desiccated farmlands, and more frequent and intense hurricanes spinning up and out from warmer tropical seas. The message of this book is that apocalyptic devastation of natural ecosystems and human socio-economic systems will not necessarily follow from a mild warming of earth's climate. According to Balling, the specter of apocalypse is clearly the dominant view held by scientists, decisionmakers and the public specter of apocalypse is clearly the dominant view held by scientists, decisionmakers and the public at large, and, in his view, it is just as clearly incorrect based on a careful examination of the historical evidence. The Heated Debate present the other side' of global warming; a kinder, gentler greenhouse debate, the stated purpose of the book is to provide the reader with some background to the greenhouse issue, present an analysis of the certainties and uncertainties for future climate change, and examine the most probably changes in climate that may occur as the greenhouse gases increase in concentration. Ultimately the author hopes the book will more completely inform decisionmakers so that they do not commit money and resources to what may turn out to be a non-problem. Indeed, global warming may have many more benefits than costs, and, in any event, the (climate) penalty for postponing action a few years is potentially small, while our knowledge base will increase tremendously allowing society to make wiser and more informed decisions.

  12. Global warming, bad weather, insurance losses and the global economy

    SciTech Connect

    Low, N.C.; Shen, S.

    1996-09-01

    Global warming causes extremely bad weather in the near term. The impact on the insurance industry is described. Why global warming in the near term causes very bad weather is explained. The continuing trend of very bad weather and the future impact on the insurance industry is explored. How very bad weather can affect the global financial market is explained. Taking a historical view of the development of the modern economy, the authors describe in the near term the impact of global warming on the global economy. The long term impact of global warming on the global economy and the human race is explored. Opportunities presented by global warming are described.

  13. Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

    PubMed

    Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

    2011-04-01

    Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

  14. Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrews, Bill

    1995-01-01

    A resource for teaching about the consequences of global warming. Discusses feedback from the temperature increase, changes in the global precipitation pattern, effects on agriculture, weather extremes, effects on forests, effects on biodiversity, effects on sea levels, and actions which will help the global community cope with global warming. (LZ)

  15. Thermal pollution causes global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nordell, Bo

    2003-09-01

    Over longer time-scales there is no net heat inflow to Earth since incoming solar energy is re-emitted at exactly the same rate. To maintain Earth's thermal equilibrium, however, there must be a net outflow equal to the geothermal heat flow. Performed calculations show that the net heat outflow in 1880 was equal to the geothermal heat flow, which is the only natural net heat source on Earth. Since then, heat dissipation from the global use of nonrenewable energy sources has resulted in additional net heating. In, e.g. Sweden, which is a sparsely populated country, this net heating is about three times greater than the geothermal heat flow. Such thermal pollution contributes to global warming until the global temperature has reached a level where this heat is also emitted to space. Heat dissipation from the global use of fossil fuels and nuclear power is the main source of thermal pollution. Here, it was found that one third of current thermal pollution is emitted to space and that a further global temperature increase of 1.8 °C is required until Earth is again in thermal equilibrium.

  16. Population growth and global warming.

    PubMed

    Short, R V

    2009-01-01

    When I was born in 1930, the human population of the world was a mere 2 billion. Today, it has already reached 6.8 billion, and is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050. That is unsustainable. It is slowly beginning to dawn on us that Global Warming is the result of increasing human CO2 emissions, and the more people there are in the world, the worse it will become. Ultimately, it is the sky that will prove to be the limit to our numbers. The developed countries of the world are the most affluent, and also the most effluent, so we must lead by example and contain our own population growth and per capita emissions. We also have a big debt to repay to former colonial territories in Africa, Asia and South America, who desperately need our help to contain their excessive rates of population growth. Belgian and Dutch obstetricians and gynaecologists can play a critical role in this endeavour. After all, we already have a pill that will stop global warming - the oral contraceptive pill. PMID:25478068

  17. Population growth and global warming.

    PubMed

    Short, R V

    2009-01-01

    When I was born in 1930, the human population of the world was a mere 2 billion. Today, it has already reached 6.8 billion, and is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050. That is unsustainable. It is slowly beginning to dawn on us that Global Warming is the result of increasing human CO2 emissions, and the more people there are in the world, the worse it will become. Ultimately, it is the sky that will prove to be the limit to our numbers. The developed countries of the world are the most affluent, and also the most effluent, so we must lead by example and contain our own population growth and per capita emissions. We also have a big debt to repay to former colonial territories in Africa, Asia and South America, who desperately need our help to contain their excessive rates of population growth. Belgian and Dutch obstetricians and gynaecologists can play a critical role in this endeavour. After all, we already have a pill that will stop global warming - the oral contraceptive pill.

  18. Forecasting phenology under global warming.

    PubMed

    Ibáñez, Inés; Primack, Richard B; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J; Ellwood, Elizabeth; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi; Lee, Sang Don; Kobori, Hiromi; Silander, John A

    2010-10-12

    As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world, spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes, however, is limited. Not all species are responding similarly, and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change, but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here, we use a long-term dataset (1953-2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species, spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later, with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe, where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology. PMID:20819816

  19. How to stop global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Goldenberg, J. . Dept. de Fisica)

    1990-11-01

    This paper reports on how to stop global warming. At the Toronto Conference on Climate Change in 1988, the world's industrialized nations agreed on a goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions 20 percent by the year 2005. This would not stabilize atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases but would at least slow their accumulation. Although difficult to achieve, the Toronto goal is certainly reachable. Newer, more efficient technologies can lower energy consumption without effecting economic output. CFC- substitutes can provide refrigeration. In fact, an international carbon tax of just $1 per barrel of oil, or $6 per ton of coal, would generate more than enough revenue to pay for the necessary fuel-saving measures. This tax could result from an international agreement similar to the 1987 Montreal Protocol, which obliges its signatories to cut down on production of CFCs.

  20. Global warming; What needs to be done

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1991-04-01

    This paper names global warming as a high-level risk. However, global warming's risk status is a point of debate in some circles, reflecting one of the complexities of using risk-based criteria to establish priorities for action. The position that global warming is a long-term environmental trend that must be halted. In this paper, argument son both sides of the global warming issue are presented to illustrate the difficulties associated with establishing the existence and magnitude of environmental and health risks, an issue that must be faced if the SAB recommendations for EPA policy change are implemented.

  1. Global Warming Estimation from MSU

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, Robert; Yoo, Jung-Moon

    1998-01-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz) from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA satellites contain small systematic errors. Some of these errors are time-dependent and some are time-independent. Small errors in Ch 2 data of successive satellites arise from calibration differences. Also, successive NOAA satellites tend to have different Local Equatorial Crossing Times (LECT), which introduce differences in Ch 2 data due to the diurnal cycle. These two sources of systematic error are largely time independent. However, because of atmospheric drag, there can be a drift in the LECT of a given satellite, which introduces time-dependent systematic errors. One of these errors is due to the progressive chance in the diurnal cycle and the other is due to associated chances in instrument heating by the sun. In order to infer global temperature trend from the these MSU data, we have eliminated explicitly the time-independent systematic errors. Both of the time-dependent errors cannot be assessed from each satellite. For this reason, their cumulative effect on the global temperature trend is evaluated implicitly. Christy et al. (1998) (CSL). based on their method of analysis of the MSU Ch 2 data, infer a global temperature cooling trend (-0.046 K per decade) from 1979 to 1997, although their near nadir measurements yield near zero trend (0.003 K/decade). Utilising an independent method of analysis, we infer global temperature warmed by 0.12 +/- 0.06 C per decade from the observations of the MSU Ch 2 during the period 1980 to 1997.

  2. Global warming, insurance losses and financial industry

    SciTech Connect

    Low, N.C.

    1996-12-31

    Global warming causes extremely bad weather in the near term. They have already caught the attention of the insurance industry, as they suffered massive losses in the last decade. Twenty-one out of the 25 largest catastrophes in the US, mainly in the form of hurricanes have occurred in the last decade. The insurance industry has reacted by taking the risk of global warming in decisions as to pricing and underwriting decisions. But they have yet to take a more active role in regulating the factors that contributes to global warming. How global warming can impact the financial industry and the modern economy is explored. Insurance and modern financial derivatives are key to the efficient functioning of the modern economy, without which the global economy can still function but will take a giant step backward. Any risk as global warming that causes economic surprises will hamper the efficient working of the financial market and the modern economy.

  3. Exploring the Sociopolitical Dimensions of Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sadler, Troy D.; Klosterman, Michelle L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present an activity to help high school students conceptualize the sociopolitical complexity of global warming through an exploration of varied perspectives on the issue. They argue that socioscientific issues such as global warming present important contexts for learning science and that the social and political dimensions of these…

  4. Global Warming: Lessons from Ozone Depletion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hobson, Art

    2010-01-01

    My teaching and textbook have always covered many physics-related social issues, including stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. The ozone saga is an inspiring good-news story that's instructive for solving the similar but bigger problem of global warming. Thus, as soon as students in my physics literacy course at the University of…

  5. Turkish Students' Ideas about Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kilinc, Ahmet; Stanisstreet, Martin; Boyes, Edward

    2008-01-01

    A questionnaire was used to explore the prevalence of ideas about global warming in Year 10 (age 15-16 years) school students in Turkey. The frequencies of individual scientific ideas and misconceptions about the causes, consequences and "cures" of global warming were identified. In addition, several general findings emerged from this study.…

  6. Global Warming: How Much and Why?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lanouette, William

    1990-01-01

    Summarizes the history of the study of global warming and includes a discussion of the role of gases, like carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC). Discusses modern research on the global warming, including computer modelling and the super-greenhouse effect. (YP)

  7. Global warming and the hydrologic cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loaiciga, Hugo A.; Valdes, Juan B.; Vogel, Richard; Garvey, Jeff; Schwarz, Harry

    1996-01-01

    Starting with a review of the basic processes that govern greenhouse warming, we have demonstrated that the hydrologic cycle plays a key role in the heat balance of the Earth's surface—atmosphere system. Through the water and other climatic feedbacks, the hydrologic cycle is shown to be a key factor in the climate's evolution as greenhouse gases continue to build up in the atmosphere. This paper examines the current predictive capability of general circulation models linked with macroscale and landscape-scale hydrologic models that simulate regional and local hydrologic regimes under global warming scenarios. Issues concerning hydrologic model calibration and validation in the context of climate change are addressed herein. It is shown that the natural uncertainty in hydrologic regimes in the present climate introduces a signal-to-noise interpretation problem for discerning greenhouse-induced variations in regional hydrologic regimes. Simulations of river basins by means of macroscale hydrologic models nested within general circulation models have been implemented in a few selected cases. From the perspective of water resources management, such simulations, carried out in detail under greenhouse-warming scenarios in midlatitudinal basins of the United States, predict shorter winter seasons, larger winter floods, drier and more frequent summer weather, and overall enhanced and protracted hydrologic variability. All these predictions point to potentially worsening conditions for flood control, water storage, and water supply in areas of semiarid midlatitudinal climate currently dependent of spring snowmelt. Little information of this type is currently available for other areas of the world. Practice of sound water resources engineering principles ought to be adequate to cope with additional hydrologic uncertainty that might arise from global warming.

  8. Global Warming: Lessons from Ozone Depletion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hobson, Art

    2010-11-01

    My teaching and textbook have always covered many physics-related social issues, including stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. The ozone saga is an inspiring good-news story that's instructive for solving the similar but bigger problem of global warming. Thus, as soon as students in my physics literacy course at the University of Arkansas have developed a conceptual understanding of energy and of electromagnetism, including the electromagnetic spectrum, I devote a lecture (and a textbook section) to ozone depletion and another lecture (and section) to global warming. Humankind came together in 1986 and quickly solved, to the extent that humans can solve it, ozone depletion. We could do the same with global warming, but we haven't and as yet there's no sign that we will. The parallel between the ozone and global warming cases, and the difference in outcomes, are striking and instructive.

  9. Global warming: The complete briefing

    SciTech Connect

    Houghton, J.

    1994-12-31

    John Houghton has drawn on the exhaustive efforts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to produce a notably compact, impeccably complete and authoritative, meticulously balanced, and lucidly presented guide to the complex yet vital issue of global warming. Its subtitle is not mere hyperbole: this truly is a complete briefing. Certainly, one could not ask for a more authoritative brief: Houghton has led an imposing series of national and international efforts relating to climate, including the most recent scientific assessments of the IPCC. Citing many concrete examples, Houghton begins by convincing that climate truly is important to humankind and that climate is far from constant. He then elucidates the mechanisms that maintain the benign climate of our planet, providing in the process, for example, the most accurate explanation of the natural greenhouse effect that has yet appeared in print. He then treats the individual greenhouse gases responsible for maintaining the earth`s warmth and presents projections of their probable future concentrations as influenced by human activities. Further chapters deal with conclusions drawn from climate models, estimates of the impacts on human activities, and possible policies and actions to mitigate or alleviate the changes and their consequences.

  10. Global warming and reproductive health.

    PubMed

    Potts, Malcolm; Henderson, Courtney E

    2012-10-01

    The largest absolute numbers of maternal deaths occur among the 40-50 million women who deliver annually without a skilled birth attendant. Most of these deaths occur in countries with a total fertility rate of greater than 4. The combination of global warming and rapid population growth in the Sahel and parts of the Middle East poses a serious threat to reproductive health and to food security. Poverty, lack of resources, and rapid population growth make it unlikely that most women in these countries will have access to skilled birth attendants or emergency obstetric care in the foreseeable future. Three strategies can be implemented to improve women's health and reproductive rights in high-fertility, low-resource settings: (1) make family planning accessible and remove non-evidenced-based barriers to contraception; (2) scale up community distribution of misoprostol for prevention of postpartum hemorrhage and, where it is legal, for medical abortion; and (3) eliminate child marriage and invest in girls and young women, thereby reducing early childbearing.

  11. Some economics of global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Schelling, T.C. )

    1992-03-01

    The greenhouse effect itself is simple enough to understand and is not in any real dispute. What is in dispute is its magnitude over the coming century, its translation into changes in climates around the globe, and the impacts of those climate changes on human welfare and the natural environment. These are beyond the professional understanding of any single person. The sciences involved are too numerous and diverse. Demography, economics, biology, and the technology sciences are needed to project emissions; atmospheric chemistry, oceanography, biology, and meteorology are needed to translate emissions into climates; biology, agronomy, health sciences, economics, sociology, and glaciology are needed to identify and assess impacts on human societies and natural ecosystems. And those are not all. There are expert judgments on large pieces of the subject, but no single person clothed in this panoply of disciplines has shown up or is likely to. This article makes an attempt to forecast the economic and social consequences of global warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases, and attempting to prevent it.

  12. How warm days increase belief in global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

    2014-02-01

    Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

  13. Global warming: a vicious circle.

    PubMed

    Sinclair, J

    1991-01-01

    The problem of global warming (GW) is larger than it was originally suspected. The release of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (ME), and nitrous oxide (NO2) by the activities of humans will do more than simply raise the global temperature. It will also trigger a variety of feedback loops that will accelerate the GW process. The extent of these feedback loops is currently impossible to incorporate into the computer models because they are not fully understood. But, from what we do know, it is clear that reductions in greenhouse gas (GG) emissions must be halted immediately. We are already committed to regional droughts, storms, water shortages, fishery disruptions and plant and animal extinctions. But the response of the oceans, forest, and ice masses has not yet been incorporated into our predictions. Almost all the feedbacks identified promise to increase GG concentrations. The carbon cycle is going to be affected in a variety of ways. Plants and soil store almost 3 times the CO2 as found in the atmosphere. Increased temperatures will increase plant respiration, thus increasing CO2 emissions. Forests will die, permafrost will melt and the result will be increased releases of CO2 and ME. The oceans and plankton can not absorb as much CO2 as the water temperature rises. At present levels GG concentrations will double by 2025. Thus scientists are calling for an immediate 60-80% reduction in CO2 and other GG emissions. It is up to the industrialized nations to solve this problem since they are the ones who created it. 75% of all human made CO2 comes from these countries. They also have the ability to help developing nations to do the same. 20 nations have already announced plans to stabilize or reduce their GG emissions, but it is attitudes and lifestyles that must be changed. This is the largest problem to ever face the human race and never before have we acted as we now must act in order to avoid a worldwide catastrophe.

  14. Delayed flowering and global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cook, B. I.; Wolkovich, E. M.; Parmesan, C.

    2011-12-01

    Within general trends toward earlier spring, observed cases of species and ecosystems that have not advanced their phenology, or have even delayed it, appear paradoxical, especially when made in temperate regions experiencing significant warming. The typical interpretation of this pattern has been that non-responders are insensitive to relatively small levels of warming over the past 40 years, while species showing delays are often viewed as statistical noise or evidence for unknown confounding factors at play. However, plant physiology studies suggest that when winter chilling (vernalization) is required to initiate spring development, winter warming may retard spring events, masking expected advances caused by spring warming. Here, we analyzed long-term data on phenology and seasonal temperatures from 490 species on two continents and demonstrate that 1) apparent non-responders are indeed responding to warming, but their responses to winter and spring warming are opposite in sign, 2) observed trends in first flowering date depend strongly on the magnitude of a given species' response to autumn/winter versus spring warming, and 3) inclusion of these effects strongly improves hindcast predictions of long-term flowering trends. With a few notable exceptions, climate change research has focused on the overall mean trend towards phenological advance, minimizing discussion of apparently non-responding species. Our results illuminate an under-studied source of complexity in wild species responses and support the need for models incorporating diverse environmental cues in order to improve predictability of species responses to anthropogenic climate change.

  15. Can Global Warming be Stopped?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luria, M.

    2013-12-01

    Earlier this year, the CO2 levels exceeded the 400 ppm level and there is no sign that the 1-2 ppm annual increase is going to slow down. Concerns regarding the danger of global warming have been reported in numerous occasions for more than a generation, ever since CO2 levels reached the 350 ppm range in the mid 1980's. Nevertheless, all efforts to slow down the increase have showed little if any effect. Mobile sources, including surface and marine transportation and aviation, consist of 20% of the global CO2 emission. The only realistic way to reduce the mobile sources' CO2 signature is by improved fuel efficiency. However, any progress in this direction is more than compensated by continuous increased demand. Stationary sources, mostly electric power generation, are responsible for the bulk of the global CO2 emission. The measurements have shown, that the effect of an increase in renewable sources, like solar wind and geothermal, combined with conversion from coal to natural gas where possible, conservation and efficiency improvement, did not compensate the increased demand mostly in developing countries. Increased usage of nuclear energy can provide some relief in carbon emission but has the potential of even greater environmental hazard. A major decrease in carbon emission can be obtained by either significant reduction in the cost of non-carbon based energy sources or by of carbon sequestration. The most economical way to make a significant decrease in carbon emission is to apply carbon sequestration technology at large point sources that use coal. Worldwide there are about 10,000 major sources that burn >7 billion metric tons of coal which generate the equivalent of 30 trillion kwh. There is a limited experience in CO2 sequestration of such huge quantities of CO2, however, it is estimated that the cost would be US$ 0.01-0.1 per kwh. The cost of eliminating this quantity can be estimated at an average of 1.5 trillion dollars annually. The major emitters, US

  16. Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrews, Bill

    1994-01-01

    A resource for the teaching of the history and causes of climate change. Discusses evidence of climate change from the Viking era, early ice ages, the most recent ice age, natural causes of climate change, human-made causes of climate change, projections of global warming, and unequal warming. (LZ)

  17. Should we be concerned about global warming?

    PubMed

    Diaz, James H

    2006-01-01

    Accurate scientific predictions of the true human health outcomes of global climate change are significantly confounded by several effect modifiers that cannot be adjusted for analytically. Nevertheless, with the documented increase in average global surface temperature of 0.6 C. since 1975, there is uniform consensus in the international scientific community that the earth is warming from a variety of climatic effects, including cyclical re-warming and the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions to support human activities.

  18. Scientists' Views about Attribution of Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verheggen, Bart; Strengers, Bart; Cook, John; van Dorland, Rob; Vringer, Kees; Peters, Jeroen; Visser, Hans; Meyer, Leo

    2015-04-01

    What do scientists think? That is an important question when engaging in science communication, in which an attempt is made to communicate the scientific understanding to a lay audience. To address this question we undertook a large and detailed survey among scientists studying various aspects of climate change , dubbed "perhaps the most thorough survey of climate scientists ever" by well-known climate scientist and science communicator Gavin Schmidt. Among more than 1800 respondents we found widespread agreement that global warming is predominantly caused by human greenhouse gases. This consensus strengthens with increased expertise, as defined by the number of self-reported articles in the peer-reviewed literature. 90% of respondents with more than 10 climate-related peer-reviewed publications (about half of all respondents), agreed that anthropogenic greenhouse gases are the dominant cause of recent global warming, i.e. having contributed more than half of the observed warming. With this survey we specified what the consensus position entails with much greater specificity than previous studies. The relevance of this consensus for science communication will be discussed. Another important result from our survey is that the main attribution statement in IPCC's fourth assessment report (AR4) may lead to an underestimate of the greenhouse gas contribution to warming, because it implicitly includes the lesser known masking effect of cooling aerosols. This shows the importance of the exact wording in high-profile reports such as those from IPCC in how the statement is perceived, even by fellow scientists. The phrasing was improved in the most recent assessment report (AR5). Respondents who characterized the human influence on climate as insignificant, reported having the most frequent media coverage regarding their views on climate change. This shows that contrarian opinions are amplified in the media in relation to their prevalence in the scientific community. This

  19. Hydrological consequences of global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, Norman L.

    2009-06-01

    The 2007 Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change indicates there is strong evidence that the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide far exceeds the natural range over the last 650,000 years, and this recent warming of the climate system is unequivocal, resulting in more frequent extreme precipitation events, earlier snowmelt runoff, increased winter flood likelihoods, increased and widespread melting of snow and ice, longer and more widespread droughts, and rising sea level. The effects of recent warming has been well documented and climate model projections indicate a range of hydrological impacts with likely to very likely probabilities (67 to 99 percent) of occurring with significant to severe consequences in response to a warmer lower atmosphere with an accelerating hydrologic cycle.

  20. Are Claims of Global Warming Being Suppressed?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crowley, Thomas J.

    2006-02-01

    Over the last few years, I have heard many rumors that climate science relevant to the global warming discussion is being suppressed by the Bush Administration. One cannot do much about third-hand information. However, on 29 January, the New York Times published a front page article on NASA efforts to suppress statements about global warming by James Hansen, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. A claim by one government scientist, though, no matter how distinguished, still requires examples from other scientists before a general conclusion can be drawn about the overall scope of the problem. But if the charges are more widespread, then some government scientists might be reluctant to make such claims, because they might feel that their positions were jeopardized. Therefore, an alternate way may be needed to determine the scope of the issue, while still safeguarding government workers from possible retaliation. -On 30 January, Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (R-N.Y.), chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, wrote a letter to NASA Administrator Michael Griffin addressing many of the concerns Crowley has raised. Boehlert wrote,``It ought to go without saying that government scientists must be free to describe their scientific conclusions and the implications of those conclusions to their fellow scientists, policymakers and the general public.'' He continued,``Good science cannot long persist in an atmosphere of intimidation. Political figures ought to be reviewing their public statements to make sure they are consistent with the best available science; scientists should not be reviewing their statements to make sure they are consistent with the current political orthodoxy.'' I commend Rep. Boehlert for his quick and clear statement of the importance of unfettered communication of science. -FRED SPILHAUS, Editor

  1. Unabated global surface temperature warming: evaluating the evidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karl, T. R.; Arguez, A.

    2015-12-01

    New insights related to time-dependent bias corrections in global surface temperatures have led to higher rates of warming over the past few decades than previously reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014). Record high global temperatures in the past few years have also contributed to larger trends. The combination of these factors and new analyses of the rate of temperature change show unabated global warming since at least the mid-Twentieth Century. New time-dependent bias corrections account for: (1) differences in temperatures measured from ships and drifting buoys; (2) improved corrections to ship measured temperatures; and (3) the larger rates of warming in polar regions (particularly the Arctic). Since 1951, the period over which IPCC (2014) attributes over half of the observed global warming to human causes, it is shown that there has been a remarkably robust and sustained warming, punctuated with inter-annual and decadal variability. This finding is confirmed through simple trend analysis and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). Trend analysis however, especially for decadal trends, is sensitive to selection bias of beginning and ending dates. EMD has no selection bias. Additionally, it can highlight both short- and long-term processes affecting the global temperature times series since it addresses both non-linear and non-stationary processes. For the new NOAA global temperature data set, our analyses do not support the notion of a hiatus or slowing of long-term global warming. However, sub-decadal periods of little (or no warming) and rapid warming can also be found, clearly showing the impact of inter-annual and decadal variability that previously has been attributed to both natural and human-induced non-greenhouse forcings.

  2. Global warming: a public health concern.

    PubMed

    Afzal, Brenda M

    2007-05-01

    Over the last 100 years the average temperature on the Earth has risen approximately 1ºFahrenheit (F), increasing at a rate twice as fast as has been noted for any period in the last 1,000 years. The Arctic ice cap is shrinking, glaciers are melting, and the Arctic permafrost is thawing. There is mounting evidence that these global climate changes are already affecting human health. This article provides a brief overview of global warming and climate changes, discusses effects of climate change on health, considers the factors which contribute to climate changes, and reviews individual and collective efforts related to reducing global warming. PMID:21848352

  3. Global warming: a public health concern.

    PubMed

    Afzal, Brenda M

    2007-05-31

    Over the last 100 years the average temperature on the Earth has risen approximately 1ºFahrenheit (F), increasing at a rate twice as fast as has been noted for any period in the last 1,000 years. The Arctic ice cap is shrinking, glaciers are melting, and the Arctic permafrost is thawing. There is mounting evidence that these global climate changes are already affecting human health. This article provides a brief overview of global warming and climate changes, discusses effects of climate change on health, considers the factors which contribute to climate changes, and reviews individual and collective efforts related to reducing global warming.

  4. Global warming: Science or politics. Part 1

    SciTech Connect

    Dorweiler, V.P.

    1998-04-01

    ``The balance of evidence suggests that there has been a discernible influence of human activity on global climate`` is a statement employed as the foundation basis to intervene on behalf of the globe and the future. That statement, as scientific evidence of human-produced greenhouse gases (primarily CO{sub 2}) having a warming effect on global climate is a political statement only. Further, the Kyoto conference to consider intervention in human activities regarding global warming was a political conference. Political and treaty issues were the focus; scientific issues were not much discussed. What change is needed then to scientifically determine global warming and to ascertain whether human activity is involved? A better understanding of the natural climate variations related to solar variation can improve understanding of an anthropogenic greenhouse effect on the climate. The purpose of this article is to pose the scientific question. Part 2 will present an answer.

  5. Some coolness concerning global warming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lindzen, Richard S.

    1990-01-01

    The greenhouse effect hypothesis is discussed. The effects of increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere on global temperature changes are analyzed. The problems with models currently used to predict climatic changes are examined.

  6. Global metabolic impacts of recent climate warming.

    PubMed

    Dillon, Michael E; Wang, George; Huey, Raymond B

    2010-10-01

    Documented shifts in geographical ranges, seasonal phenology, community interactions, genetics and extinctions have been attributed to recent global warming. Many such biotic shifts have been detected at mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere-a latitudinal pattern that is expected because warming is fastest in these regions. In contrast, shifts in tropical regions are expected to be less marked because warming is less pronounced there. However, biotic impacts of warming are mediated through physiology, and metabolic rate, which is a fundamental measure of physiological activity and ecological impact, increases exponentially rather than linearly with temperature in ectotherms. Therefore, tropical ectotherms (with warm baseline temperatures) should experience larger absolute shifts in metabolic rate than the magnitude of tropical temperature change itself would suggest, but the impact of climate warming on metabolic rate has never been quantified on a global scale. Here we show that estimated changes in terrestrial metabolic rates in the tropics are large, are equivalent in magnitude to those in the north temperate-zone regions, and are in fact far greater than those in the Arctic, even though tropical temperature change has been relatively small. Because of temperature's nonlinear effects on metabolism, tropical organisms, which constitute much of Earth's biodiversity, should be profoundly affected by recent and projected climate warming.

  7. Meteorology: hurricanes and global warming.

    PubMed

    Landsea, Christopher W

    2005-12-22

    Anthropogenic climate change has the potential for slightly increasing the intensity of tropical cyclones through warming of sea surface temperatures. Emanuel has shown a striking and surprising association between sea surface temperatures and destructiveness by tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and western North Pacific basins. However, I question his analysis on the following grounds: it does not properly represent the observations described; the use of his Atlantic bias-removal scheme may not be warranted; and further investigation of a substantially longer time series for tropical cyclones affecting the continental United States does not show a tendency for increasing destructiveness. These factors indicate that instead of "unprecedented" tropical cyclone activity having occurred in recent years, hurricane intensity was equal or even greater during the last active period in the mid-twentieth century.

  8. Global warming: A Northwest perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, M.J.; Counts, C.A.

    1990-02-01

    The Northwest Power Planning Council convened a symposium in Olympia, Washington, on the subject of global climate change ( the greenhouse effect'') and its potential for affecting the Pacific Northwest. The symposium was organized in response to a need by the Power Council to understand global climate change and its potential impacts on resource planning and fish and wildlife planning for the region, as well as a need to understand national policy developing toward climate change and the Pacific Northwest's role in it. 40 figs., 15 tabs.

  9. Global Warming Estimation from MSU

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, Robert, Jr.

    1999-01-01

    In this study, we have developed time series of global temperature from 1980-97 based on the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 (53.74 GHz) observations taken from polar-orbiting NOAA operational satellites. In order to create these time series, systematic errors (approx. 0.1 K) in the Ch 2 data arising from inter-satellite differences are removed objectively. On the other hand, smaller systematic errors (approx. 0.03 K) in the data due to orbital drift of each satellite cannot be removed objectively. Such errors are expected to remain in the time series and leave an uncertainty in the inferred global temperature trend. With the help of a statistical method, the error in the MSU inferred global temperature trend resulting from orbital drifts and residual inter-satellite differences of all satellites is estimated to be 0.06 K decade. Incorporating this error, our analysis shows that the global temperature increased at a rate of 0.13 +/- 0.06 K decade during 1980-97.

  10. Beyond global warming: Ecology and global change

    SciTech Connect

    Vitousek, P.M. )

    1994-10-01

    While ecologists involved in management or policy often are advised to learn to deal with uncertainty, some components of global environmental change are certainly occurring and are certainly human-caused. All have important ecological consequences. Well-documented global changes include: Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; alterations in the biogeochemistry of the global nitrogen cycle; and ongoing land use/land cover change. Human activity - now primarily fossil fuel combustion - has increased carbon dioxide concentrations from [approximately] 280 to 355 [mu]L/L since 1800 and is likely to have climatic consequences and direct effects on biota in all terrestrial ecosystems. The global nitrogen cycle has been altered so that more nitrogen is fixed annually by humanity than by all natural pathways combined. Altering atmospheric chemistry and aquatic ecosystems, contributes to eutrophication of the biosphere, and has substantial regional effects on biological diversity. Finally, human land use/land cover change has transformed one-third to one-half of Earth's ice-free surface, representing the most important component of global change now. Any clear dichotomy between pristine ecosystems and human-altered areas that may have existed in the past has vanished, and ecological research should account for this reality. Certain components of global environmental change are the primary causes of anticipated changes in climate, and of ongoing losses of biological diversity. They are caused by the extraordinary growth in size and resource use of the human population. On a broad scale, there is little uncertainty about any of these components of change or their causes. However, much of the public believes the causes of global change to be uncertain and contentious. By speaking out effectively,the focus of public discussion towards what can and should be done about global environmental change can be shifted. 135 refs., 13 figs., 1 tab.

  11. Communicating the Dangers of Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, J. E.

    2006-12-01

    So far, in my opinion, we scientists have not done a good job of communicating the imminent threat posed by global warming, yet I believe there is still time for that if we work efficiently now to overcome existing obstacles. Several of those obstacles are illustrated by contrasting the roles of scientists, the media, special interests, politicians and the public in the ozone depletion and global warming crises. Scientists in America are further challenged by a decline in public science education, a perceived gap between science and religion, increasing politicization of public affairs offices in the government, and accumulation of power by a unitary executive. First order communication tasks are illustrated by a need for improved exchange and understanding, among scientists as well as with the public, of fundamental climate facts: (1) additional global warming exceeding 1C will yield large climate effects, (2) paleoclimate changes contain quantitatively specific information about climate sensitivity that is not widely appreciated, (3) carbon cycle facts, such as the substantial portion of carbon dioxide emissions that will remain in the air "forever", for practical purposes, (4) fossil fuel facts such as the dominant role of coal and unconventional fuels in all business-as-usual scenarios for future energy sources. The facts graphically illustrate the need for prompt actions to avoid disastrous climate change, yet they also reveal the feasibility of a course that minimizes global warming and yields other benefits. Perhaps the greatest challenge is posed by an inappropriate casting of the topic as a dichotomy between those who deny that there is a global warming problem and those who either are exceedingly pessimistic about the prospects for minimizing climate change or believe that solutions would be very expensive. Sensible evaluation of the situation, in my opinion, suggests a strategy for dealing with global warming that is not costly and has many subsidiary

  12. Global warming and sexual plant reproduction.

    PubMed

    Hedhly, Afif; Hormaza, José I; Herrero, María

    2009-01-01

    The sexual reproductive phase in plants might be particularly vulnerable to the effects of global warming. The direct effect of temperature changes on the reproductive process has been documented previously, and recent data from other physiological processes that are affected by rising temperatures seem to reinforce the susceptibility of the reproductive process to a changing climate. But the reproductive phase also provides the plant with an opportunity to adapt to environmental changes. Understanding phenotypic plasticity and gametophyte selection for prevailing temperatures, along with possible epigenetic changes during this process, could provide new insights into plant evolution under a global-warming scenario.

  13. Global warming -- Science and anti-science

    SciTech Connect

    Preining, O. |

    1995-06-01

    The global warming debate has sparked many facts activities in almost all sectors of human endeavors. There are the hard facts, the measurements of the greenhouse gases, the statistics of human activities responsible for emissions, the demographic figures. There are the soft facts, the interpretations of the hard facts requiring additional assumptions. There are the media, the press, television, for whom environmental problems make good stories, these can be used to rise emotions, to make heroes and antiheroes. There are politicians, the global warming debate can be used even in electron campaigns. Global warming is a topic within and beyond science. The judgment (and hence use) of scientific facts is overwhelmingly influenced by the ``Weltbild`` (underlying beliefs how the world operates), and consequently opposing positions of well-known scientists arise. There are the attempts to invent futures of man on Earth: policies, regulations, laws on nation, international, and global levels shall facilitate a change in the basic behavior of all men. The global warming issue has many facets and cannot be successfully discussed without including, e.g., the North-South dialogue, world population, etc.

  14. Phenology and global warming research in Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morellato, L. P. C.

    2009-04-01

    A recent review on South American phenology research has shown an increase in phenology papers over the last two decades, especially in this new 21st century. Nevertheless, there is a lack of long term data sets or monitoring systems, or of papers addressing plant phenology and global warming. The IPCC AR4 report from 2007 has offered indisputable evidence of regional to global-scale change in seasonality, but it is supported by plant and animal phenological data from North Hemisphere and temperate species. Information from tropical regions in general and South America in particular are sparse or lacking. Here I summarize the recent outcomes of our ongoing tropical phenology research in Brazil and its potential contribution to integrate fields and understand the effects of global warming within the tropics. The Phenology Laboratory (UNESP) is located at Rio Claro, São Paulo State, Southeastern Brazil. We are looking for trends and shifts on tropical vegetation phenology, and are exploring different methods for collecting and analyzing phenology data. The phenological studies are developed in collaboration with graduate and undergraduate students, post-docs and researchers from Brazil and around the world. We established three long term monitoring programs on Southeastern Brazil from 2000 onwards: trees from an urban garden, semideciduous forest trees, and savanna cerrado woody vegetation, all based on direct weekly to monthly observation of marked plants. We have collected some discontinuous data from Atlantic rain forest trees ranging from 5 to 8 years long. I collaborate with the longest tropical wet forest phenology monitoring system in Central Amazon, and with another long term monitoring system on semi deciduous forest from South Brazil. All research programs aim, in the long run, to monitor and detect shifts on tropical plant phenology related to climatic changes. Our first preliminary findings suggest that: (i) flowering and leafing are more affected by

  15. An apparent hiatus in global warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.

    2013-12-01

    Global warming first became evident beyond the bounds of natural variability in the 1970s, but increases in global mean surface temperatures have stalled in the 2000s. Increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide, create an energy imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) even as the planet warms to adjust to this imbalance, which is estimated to be 0.5-1 W m-2 over the 2000s. Annual global fluctuations in TOA energy of up to 0.2 W m-2 occur from natural variations in clouds, aerosols, and changes in the Sun. At times of major volcanic eruptions the effects can be much larger. Yet global mean surface temperatures fluctuate much more than these can account for. An energy imbalance is manifested not just as surface atmospheric or ground warming but also as melting sea and land ice, and heating of the oceans. More than 90% of the heat goes into the oceans and, with melting land ice, causes sea level to rise. For the past decade, more than 30% of the heat has apparently penetrated below 700 m depth that is traceable to changes in surface winds mainly over the Pacific in association with a switch to a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in 1999. Surface warming was much more in evidence during the 1976-1998 positive phase of the PDO, suggesting that natural decadal variability modulates the rate of change of global surface temperatures while sea-level rise is more relentless. Global warming has not stopped; it is merely manifested in different ways.

  16. Global Warming and Energy Transition: A Public Policy Imperative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stone, G. T.

    2006-12-01

    The historic transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy resources has begun. This development is commonly attributed to increasing energy costs and the need for energy security. Looming ever larger, however, is the issue that will soon drive the third energy revolution: global warming. A preponderance of evidence documents accelerating warming, enlarging impacts, and human causes -- principally combustion of fossil fuels. The carbon dioxide (C02) content of Earth's atmosphere has increased more than 35 percent since the beginning of the industrial revolution and is the highest in 650,000 years. This dramatic rise of C02 and attendant positive feedbacks are already forcing significant impacts worldwide. These include atmospheric warming with shifting climatic and habitat zones, spreading tropical disease, and more extreme weather events; rapid ice loss at high latitude and high altitude; ocean warming and acidification with coral reef bleaching and intensifying tropical storms; rising sea level; and accelerating extinction rates. The 2007 draft report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts greater warming than in previous models. A tipping point to abrupt climate change may be imminent. It is incumbent upon geoscientists and geoscience educators to assume leadership in addressing this challenge through public outreach and general education. The following topics should be integrated into all appropriate courses: the evidence of global warming and its causes; observed present and predicted future impacts of global warming; mitigation and adaptation strategies; and implications for energy policies and economic opportunities. New entry-level science and general education courses -- such as Climate Change Fundamentals and Energy in Nature, Technology, and Society -- are proving to be effective should be widely developed In addition, by workshops and presentations to civic and business organizations and by demonstrated examples of

  17. Global warming and extreme storm surges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grinsted, Aslak

    2013-04-01

    I will show empirical evidence for how global warming has changed extreme storm surge statistics for different regions in the world. Are there any detectable changes beyond what we expect from sea level rise. What does this suggest about the future of hurricane surges such as from hurricane Katrina and superstorm Sandy?

  18. Can Global Warming Heat Up Environmental Education?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mazzatenta, Claudio

    2008-01-01

    Bronx Community College (CUNY) launched "Global Warming Campus Awareness and Action Days" in celebration of Earth Day, 2007. The purpose of this program was to raise awareness of environmental issues in the college population, especially students. To let more students have a grasp of what Environmental Education (EE) is all about, the author…

  19. Global warming in the public sphere.

    PubMed

    Corfee-Morlot, Jan; Maslin, Mark; Burgess, Jacquelin

    2007-11-15

    Although the science of global warming has been in place for several decades if not more, only in the last decade and a half has the issue moved clearly into the public sphere as a public policy issue and a political priority. To understand how and why this has occurred, it is essential to consider the history of the scientific theory of the greenhouse effect, the evidence that supports it and the mechanisms through which science interacts with lay publics and other elite actors, such as politicians, policymakers and business decision makers. This article reviews why and how climate change has moved from the bottom to the top of the international political agenda. It traces the scientific discovery of global warming, political and institutional developments to manage it as well as other socially mediated pathways for understanding and promoting global warming as an issue in the public sphere. The article also places this historical overview of global warming as a public issue into a conceptual framework for understanding relationships between society and nature with emphasis on the co-construction of knowledge.

  20. Environmental colonialism Leadership and global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1990-02-16

    The vast majority of the world's scientific community believes there is global warming and that it is global problem requiring international cooperation. But policy makers in industrialized countries are at a crossroads:Listen to the skeptics, who demand more proof and who fear economic consequences of an anti-greenhouse campaign, or take the more difficult path of commitment to attacking the problem. Meanwhile, poverty and debt keep. The Third world locked out of any active partnership. This issue of ED highlight their results of recently tapping documents and seminar findings on the subject of global warming. This issue also contains the following: (1) ED Refining Netback Data Series for the US Gulf and West Coasts, Rotterdam, and Singapore as of the February 9, 1990; and (2) ED Fuel Price/Tax Series for countries of the Western Hemisphere, February 1990 edition. 6 figs., 5 tabs.

  1. Ecology: global warming and amphibian losses.

    PubMed

    Alford, Ross A; Bradfield, Kay S; Richards, Stephen J

    2007-05-31

    Is global warming contributing to amphibian declines and extinctions by promoting outbreaks of the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis? Analysing patterns from the American tropics, Pounds et al. envisage a process in which a single warm year triggers die-offs in a particular area (for instance, 1987 in the case of Monteverde, Costa Rica). However, we show here that populations of two frog species in the Australian tropics experienced increasing developmental instability, which is evidence of stress, at least two years before they showed chytrid-related declines. Because the working model of Pounds et al. is incomplete, their test of the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis could be inconclusive.

  2. Global warming: Science or politics? Part 2

    SciTech Connect

    Dorweiler, V.P.

    1998-05-01

    Supplementing the conclusion that ``there has been a discernible influence of human activity on global climate`` is a set of dire consequences to the globe and human population. One consequence is the spread of tropical diseases. It has not been concluded whether the spread of disease is due to global conditions or to opening of tropical forests to commerce, allowing spread by travelers. Whether these forecasts abet the claimed relation of human activity to global warming, they are not a new phenomenon. In the space of several decades, dire consequences have been forecast in three sectors: natural resource consumption, energy resources and environmental fate. These three areas are reviewed.

  3. Frequency of Deep Convective Clouds and Global Warming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aumann, Hartmut H.; Teixeira, Joao

    2008-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the effect of global warming on the formation of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC). It concludes that nature responds to global warming with an increase in strong convective activity. The frequency of DCC increases with global warming at the rate of 6%/decade. The increased frequency of DCC with global warming alone increases precipitation by 1.7%/decade. It compares the state of the art climate models' response to global warming, and concludes that the parametrization of climate models need to be tuned to more closely emulate the way nature responds to global warming.

  4. Global genetic change tracks global climate warming in Drosophila subobscura.

    PubMed

    Balanyá, Joan; Oller, Josep M; Huey, Raymond B; Gilchrist, George W; Serra, Luis

    2006-09-22

    Comparisons of recent with historical samples of chromosome inversion frequencies provide opportunities to determine whether genetic change is tracking climate change in natural populations. We determined the magnitude and direction of shifts over time (24 years between samples on average) in chromosome inversion frequencies and in ambient temperature for populations of the fly Drosophila subobscura on three continents. In 22 of 26 populations, climates warmed over the intervals, and genotypes characteristic of low latitudes (warm climates) increased in frequency in 21 of those 22 populations. Thus, genetic change in this fly is tracking climate warming and is doing so globally.

  5. Global Warming: Settled Science? Unsettled Media Debate??

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, S. H.

    2007-12-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently assessed the approximate 0.75°C warming since 1850 as an "unequivocal" trend. This is very rare and strong language for scientists who often lead with their caveats, not with their concerns. Later, the same report says it is "very likely" (i.e.- greater that 90% chance) that most of the warming of the past several decades can be attributed to human activities, primarily greenhouse gas emissions. So far, the science sounds "settled". Furthermore, the IPCC, as well as many other national assessments, assigns very high confidence to projections of further warming, intensified tropical cyclones, more extremes of drought and flood, and melting mountain glaciers and arctic sea ice in the twenty-first century. Still sounds settled. However, the likely range of warming projected by IPCC to 2100 varies by a whopping factor of 6: 1.1-6.4°C above 1990 levels-- hardly "settled science". Projections of precipitation are equivocal even as to the direction of change. Therefore, IPCC Working Group 2 recommends a "risk management" approach to dealing with the combination of well establish and remaining speculative components of global warming that nonetheless pose potentially serious risks to human and natural systems.

  6. National contributions to observed global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Damon Matthews, H.; Graham, Tanya L.; Keverian, Serge; Lamontagne, Cassandra; Seto, Donny; Smith, Trevor J.

    2014-01-01

    There is considerable interest in identifying national contributions to global warming as a way of allocating historical responsibility for observed climate change. This task is made difficult by uncertainty associated with national estimates of historical emissions, as well as by difficulty in estimating the climate response to emissions of gases with widely varying atmospheric lifetimes. Here, we present a new estimate of national contributions to observed climate warming, including CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and land-use change, as well as methane, nitrous oxide and sulfate aerosol emissions While some countries’ warming contributions are reasonably well defined by fossil fuel CO2 emissions, many countries have dominant contributions from land-use CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, emphasizing the importance of both deforestation and agriculture as components of a country’s contribution to climate warming. Furthermore, because of their short atmospheric lifetime, recent sulfate aerosol emissions have a large impact on a country’s current climate contribution We show also that there are vast disparities in both total and per-capita climate contributions among countries, and that across most developed countries, per-capita contributions are not currently consistent with attempts to restrict global temperature change to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures.

  7. Global Warming 'Pause' - Oceans Reshuffle Heat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nieves, V.; Willis, J. K.; Patzert, W. C.

    2015-12-01

    Despite the fact that greenhouse gases are still increasing and all other indicators show warming-related change (+0.0064 °C/year since 1880 or +0.0077 °C/year during 1993-2002), surface temperatures stopped climbing steadily during the past decade at a rate of +0.0010 °C/year from 2003 to 2012. We show that in recent years, the heat was being trapped in the subsurface waters of the western Pacific and eastern Indian oceans between 100 and 300 m. The movement of warm Pacific water below the surface, also related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation climatic pattern, temporarily affected surface temperatures and accounted for the global cooling trend in surface temperature. With the Pacific Decadal Oscillation possibly changing to a warm phase, it is likely that the oceans will drive a major surge in global surface warming sometime in the next decade or two. Reference: Nieves, V., Willis, J. K., and Patzert, W. C. (2015). Recent hiatus caused by decadal shift in Indo-Pacific heating. Science, aaa4521.

  8. Global Warming, Drought and a Greening Planet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donohue, R. J.; Roderick, M. L.; McVicar, T.; Farquhar, G. D.; Yang, Y.

    2015-12-01

    A commonly held perception is that global warming will result in a drier planet with a greater occurrence of droughts. Across water-limited environments, droughts result in declines in vegetation productivity and cover. However, observations indicate that productivity and cover have, on average, been increasing across the globe's water-limited regions. This raises the question of what the relationship is between drought and vegetation, and how might vegetation-water dynamics change as global warming progresses. Of particular interest is the role that CO2 fertilisation has in changing landscape-scale vegetation water use. We will present both observation- and model-based analyses of the possible CO2-driven changes in vegetation cover, productivity and water use.

  9. [Global warming and spread of infectious diseases].

    PubMed

    Ebert, B; Fleischer, B

    2005-01-01

    At the end of the twentieth century, tropical infectious diseases increased despite earlier successes of eradication campaigns. As a global warming of 1.4-5.8 degrees C is anticipated to occur by 2100, mainly the vector-borne tropical diseases that are particularly sensitive to climate are expected to spread. Although biological reasons seemingly support this hypothesis, ecological and socioeconomic factors have in the past proven to be stronger driving forces for the spread of infectious disease than climate.

  10. Toward international law on global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Shultz, E.B. Jr.; Johns, C.; Pauken, M.T. )

    1991-01-01

    Legal precedent in the history of international environmental law is considered. Then, the legal principles, rights and obligations related to transboundary environmental interference are drawn from the precedent. From this legal and historical background, and a brief overview of the principal technical aspects of the emerging global warming problem, the authors suggest a number of possible international protocols. These include outlines of multilateral treaties on energy efficiency, reduction in utilization of coal, increased adoption efficiency, reduction in utilization of coal, increased adoption of renewable and solar energy, and stimulation of several types of forestation, with creation of practical regimes and remedies. Each protocol has its own environmental social and economic merits and urgency, apart from the prevention of global warming. In each suggested protocol, the political obstacles are analyzed. Suggestions are presented for reduction of levels of disagreement standing in the way of obtaining viable treaties likely to be upheld in practice by the signatories. An agenda for study and action is presented, on the assumption that prudence dictates that international environmental law must be expanded as soon as feasible to regulate global warming.

  11. Infectious diseases and global warming: Tracking disease incidence rates globally

    SciTech Connect

    Low, N.C.

    1995-09-01

    Given the increasing importance of impact of global warming on public health, there is no global database system to monitor infectious disease and disease in general, and to which global data of climate change and environmental factors, such as temperature, greenhouse gases, and human activities, e.g., coastal development, deforestation, can be calibrated, investigated and correlated. The author proposes the diseases incidence rates be adopted as the basic global measure of morbidity of infectious diseases. The importance of a correctly chosen measure of morbidity of disease is presented. The importance of choosing disease incidence rates as the measure of morbidity and the mathematical foundation of which are discussed. The author further proposes the establishment of a global database system to track the incidence rates of infectious diseases. Only such a global system can be used to calibrate and correlate other globally tracked climatic, greenhouse gases and environmental data. The infrastructure and data sources for building such a global database is discussed.

  12. Robust warming of the global upper ocean.

    PubMed

    Lyman, John M; Good, Simon A; Gouretski, Viktor V; Ishii, Masayoshi; Johnson, Gregory C; Palmer, Matthew D; Smith, Doug M; Willis, Josh K

    2010-05-20

    A large ( approximately 10(23) J) multi-decadal globally averaged warming signal in the upper 300 m of the world's oceans was reported roughly a decade ago and is attributed to warming associated with anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The majority of the Earth's total energy uptake during recent decades has occurred in the upper ocean, but the underlying uncertainties in ocean warming are unclear, limiting our ability to assess closure of sea-level budgets, the global radiation imbalance and climate models. For example, several teams have recently produced different multi-year estimates of the annually averaged global integral of upper-ocean heat content anomalies (hereafter OHCA curves) or, equivalently, the thermosteric sea-level rise. Patterns of interannual variability, in particular, differ among methods. Here we examine several sources of uncertainty that contribute to differences among OHCA curves from 1993 to 2008, focusing on the difficulties of correcting biases in expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data. XBT data constitute the majority of the in situ measurements of upper-ocean heat content from 1967 to 2002, and we find that the uncertainty due to choice of XBT bias correction dominates among-method variability in OHCA curves during our 1993-2008 study period. Accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, a composite of several OHCA curves using different XBT bias corrections still yields a statistically significant linear warming trend for 1993-2008 of 0.64 W m(-2) (calculated for the Earth's entire surface area), with a 90-per-cent confidence interval of 0.53-0.75 W m(-2).

  13. Effects of Global Warming on Vibrio Ecology.

    PubMed

    Vezzulli, Luigi; Pezzati, Elisabetta; Brettar, Ingrid; Höfle, Manfred; Pruzzo, Carla

    2015-06-01

    Vibrio-related infections are increasing worldwide both in humans and aquatic animals. Rise in global sea surface temperature (SST), which is approximately 1 °C higher now than 140 years ago and is one of the primary physical impacts of global warming, has been linked to such increases. In this chapter, major known effects of increasing SST on the biology and ecology of vibrios are described. They include the effects on bacterial growth rate, both in the field and in laboratory, culturability, expression of pathogenicity traits, and interactions with aquatic organisms and abiotic surfaces. Special emphasis is given to the effect of ocean warming on Vibrio interactions with zooplankters, which represent one of the most important aquatic reservoirs for these bacteria. The reported findings highlight the biocomplexity of the interactions between vibrios and their natural environment in a climate change scenario, posing the need for interdisciplinary studies to properly understand the connection between ocean warming and persistence and spread of vibrios in sea waters and the epidemiology of the diseases they cause. PMID:26185070

  14. Scientists' views about attribution of global warming.

    PubMed

    Verheggen, Bart; Strengers, Bart; Cook, John; van Dorland, Rob; Vringer, Kees; Peters, Jeroen; Visser, Hans; Meyer, Leo

    2014-08-19

    Results are presented from a survey held among 1868 scientists studying various aspects of climate change, including physical climate, climate impacts, and mitigation. The survey was unique in its size, broadness and level of detail. Consistent with other research, we found that, as the level of expertise in climate science grew, so too did the level of agreement on anthropogenic causation. 90% of respondents with more than 10 climate-related peer-reviewed publications (about half of all respondents), explicitly agreed with anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) being the dominant driver of recent global warming. The respondents' quantitative estimate of the GHG contribution appeared to strongly depend on their judgment or knowledge of the cooling effect of aerosols. The phrasing of the IPCC attribution statement in its fourth assessment report (AR4)-providing a lower limit for the isolated GHG contribution-may have led to an underestimation of the GHG influence on recent warming. The phrasing was improved in AR5. We also report on the respondents' views on other factors contributing to global warming; of these Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) was considered the most important. Respondents who characterized human influence on climate as insignificant, reported having had the most frequent media coverage regarding their views on climate change.

  15. Global Warming: Evidence from Satellite Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.

    2001-01-01

    Observations made in Channel 2 (53.74 GHz) of the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer, flown on-board sequential, sun-synchronous, polar orbiting NOAA operational satellites, indicate that the mean temperature of the atmosphere over the globe increased during the period 1980 to 1999. In this study we have minimized systematic errors in the time series introduced by the satellite orbital drift in an objective manner. This is done with the help the onboard warm black body temperature, which is used in the calibration of the MSU radiometer. The corrected MSU Channel 2 observations of the NOAA satellite series reveal that the vertically weighted global mean temperature of the atmosphere, with a peak weight near the mid-troposphere, warmed at the rate of 0.13 K per decade (with an uncertainty of 0.05 K per decade) during 1980 to 1999. The global warming deduced from conventional meteorological data that have been corrected for urbanization effects agrees reasonably with this satellite deuced result.

  16. Effects of Global Warming on Vibrio Ecology.

    PubMed

    Vezzulli, Luigi; Pezzati, Elisabetta; Brettar, Ingrid; Höfle, Manfred; Pruzzo, Carla

    2015-06-01

    Vibrio-related infections are increasing worldwide both in humans and aquatic animals. Rise in global sea surface temperature (SST), which is approximately 1 °C higher now than 140 years ago and is one of the primary physical impacts of global warming, has been linked to such increases. In this chapter, major known effects of increasing SST on the biology and ecology of vibrios are described. They include the effects on bacterial growth rate, both in the field and in laboratory, culturability, expression of pathogenicity traits, and interactions with aquatic organisms and abiotic surfaces. Special emphasis is given to the effect of ocean warming on Vibrio interactions with zooplankters, which represent one of the most important aquatic reservoirs for these bacteria. The reported findings highlight the biocomplexity of the interactions between vibrios and their natural environment in a climate change scenario, posing the need for interdisciplinary studies to properly understand the connection between ocean warming and persistence and spread of vibrios in sea waters and the epidemiology of the diseases they cause.

  17. Global Warming: Evidence from Satellite Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R.; Yoo, J.-M.; Dalu, G.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Observations made in Channel 2 (53.74 GHz) of the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer, flown onboard sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) operational satellites, indicate that the mean temperature of the atmosphere over the globe increased during the period 1980 to 1999. In this study, we have minimized systematic errors in the time series introduced by satellite orbital drift in an objective manner. This is done with the help of the onboard warm-blackbody temperature, which is used in the calibration of the MSU radiometer. The corrected MSU Channel 2 observations of the NOAA satellite series reveal that the vertically-weighted global-mean temperature of the atmosphere, with a peak weight near the mid troposphere, warmed at the rate of 0.13 +/- 0.05 K/decade during 1980 to 1999. The global warming deduced from conventional meteorological data that have been corrected for urbanization effects agrees reasonably with this satellite-deduced result.

  18. Global warming and allergy in Asia Minor.

    PubMed

    Bajin, Munir Demir; Cingi, Cemal; Oghan, Fatih; Gurbuz, Melek Kezban

    2013-01-01

    The earth is warming, and it is warming quickly. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that global warming is correlated with the frequency of pollen-induced respiratory allergy and allergic diseases. There is a body of evidence suggesting that the prevalence of allergic diseases induced by pollens is increasing in developed countries, a trend that is also evident in the Mediterranean area. Because of its mild winters and sunny days with dry summers, the Mediterranean area is different from the areas of central and northern Europe. Classical examples of allergenic pollen-producing plants of the Mediterranean climate include Parietaria, Olea and Cupressaceae. Asia Minor is a Mediterranean region that connects Asia and Europe, and it includes considerable coastal areas. Gramineae pollens are the major cause of seasonal allergic rhinitis in Asia Minor, affecting 1.3-6.4 % of the population, in accordance with other European regions. This article emphasizes the importance of global climate change and anticipated increases in the prevalence and severity of allergic disease in Asia Minor, mediated through worsening air pollution and altered local and regional pollen production, from an otolaryngologic perspective.

  19. Management of drought risk under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Qiang; Han, Lanying; Jia, Jianying; Song, Lingling; Wang, Jinsong

    2016-07-01

    Drought is a serious ecological problem around the world, and its impact on crops and water availability for humans can jeopardize human life. Although drought has always been common, the drought risk has become increasingly prominent because of the climatic warming that has occurred during the past century. However, it still does not comprehensively understand the mechanisms that determine the occurrence of the drought risk it poses to humans, particularly in the context of global climate change. In this paper, we summarize the progress of research on drought and the associated risk, introduce the principle of a drought "transition" from one stage to another, synthesize the characteristics of key factors and their interactions, discuss the potential effect of climatic warming on drought risk, and use this discussion to define the basic requirements for a drought risk management system. We also discuss the main measures that can be used to prevent or mitigate droughts in the context of a risk management strategy.

  20. Microwave sounding units and global warming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gary, Bruce L.; Keihm, Stephen J.

    1991-01-01

    A recent work of Spencer and Christy (1990) on precise monitoring of global temperature trends from satellites is critically examined. It is tentatively concluded in the present comment that remote sensing using satellite microwave radiometers can in fact provide a means for the monitoring of troposphere-averaged air temperature. However, for this to be successful more than one decade of data will be required to overcome the apparent inherent variability of global average air temperature. It is argued that the data set reported by Spencer and Christy should be subjected to careful review before it is interpreted as evidence of the presence or absence of global warming. In a reply, Christy provides specific responses to the commenters' objections.

  1. Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth's energy imbalance.

    PubMed

    Drijfhout, Sybren

    2015-01-01

    A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15-20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40-50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible. PMID:26437599

  2. Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth's energy imbalance.

    PubMed

    Drijfhout, Sybren

    2015-10-06

    A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15-20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40-50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible.

  3. Global-Address Space Networking (GASNet) Library

    2011-04-06

    GASNet (Global-Address Space Networking) is a language-independent, low-level networking layer that provides network-independent, high-performance communication primitives tailored for implementing parallel global address space SPMD languages such as UPC and Titanium. The interface is primarily intended as a compilation target and for use by runtime library writers (as opposed to end users), and the primary goals are high performance, interface portability, and expressiveness. GASNet is designed specifically to support high-performance, portable implementations of global address spacemore » languages on modern high-end communication networks. The interface provides the flexibility and extensibility required to express a wide variety of communication patterns without sacrificing performance by imposing large computational overheads in the interface. The design of the GASNet interface is partitioned into two layers to maximize porting ease without sacrificing performance: the lower level is a narrow but very general interface called the GASNet core API - the design is basedheavily on Active Messages, and is implemented directly on top of each individual network architecture. The upper level is a wider and more expressive interface called GASNet extended API, which provides high-level operations such as remote memory access and various collective operations. This release implements GASNet over MPI, the Quadrics "elan" API, the Myrinet "GM" API and the "LAPI" interface to the IBM SP switch. A template is provided for adding support for additional network interfaces.« less

  4. Global warming and thermohaline circulation stability.

    PubMed

    Wood, Richard A; Vellinga, Michael; Thorpe, Robert

    2003-09-15

    The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) plays an important role in global climate. Theoretical and palaeoclimatic evidence points to the possibility of rapid changes in the strength of the THC, including a possible quasi-permanent shutdown. The climatic impacts of such a shutdown would be severe, including a cooling throughout the Northern Hemisphere, which in some regions is greater in magnitude than the changes expected from global warming in the next 50 years. Other climatic impacts would likely include a severe alteration of rainfall patterns in the tropics, the Indian subcontinent and Europe. Modelling the future behaviour of the THC focuses on two key questions. (i) Is a gradual weakening of the THC likely in response to global warming, and if so by how much? (ii) Are there thresholds beyond which rapid or irreversible changes in the THC are likely? Most projections of the response of the THC to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases suggest a gradual weakening over the twenty-first century. However, there is a wide variation between different models over the size of the weakening. Rapid or irreversible THC shutdown is considered a low-probability (but high-impact) outcome; however, some climate models of intermediate complexity do show the possibility of such events. The question of the future of the THC is beset with conceptual, modelling and observational uncertainties, but some current and planned projects show promise to make substantial progress in tackling these uncertainties in future.

  5. Global warming and thermohaline circulation stability.

    PubMed

    Wood, Richard A; Vellinga, Michael; Thorpe, Robert

    2003-09-15

    The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) plays an important role in global climate. Theoretical and palaeoclimatic evidence points to the possibility of rapid changes in the strength of the THC, including a possible quasi-permanent shutdown. The climatic impacts of such a shutdown would be severe, including a cooling throughout the Northern Hemisphere, which in some regions is greater in magnitude than the changes expected from global warming in the next 50 years. Other climatic impacts would likely include a severe alteration of rainfall patterns in the tropics, the Indian subcontinent and Europe. Modelling the future behaviour of the THC focuses on two key questions. (i) Is a gradual weakening of the THC likely in response to global warming, and if so by how much? (ii) Are there thresholds beyond which rapid or irreversible changes in the THC are likely? Most projections of the response of the THC to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases suggest a gradual weakening over the twenty-first century. However, there is a wide variation between different models over the size of the weakening. Rapid or irreversible THC shutdown is considered a low-probability (but high-impact) outcome; however, some climate models of intermediate complexity do show the possibility of such events. The question of the future of the THC is beset with conceptual, modelling and observational uncertainties, but some current and planned projects show promise to make substantial progress in tackling these uncertainties in future. PMID:14558904

  6. Global warming and thermohaline circulation stability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, Richard A.; Vellinga, Michael; Thorpe, Robert

    2003-09-01

    The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) plays an important role in global climate. Theoretical and palaeoclimatic evidence points to the possibility of rapid changes in the strength of the THC, including a possible quasi-permanent shutdown. The climatic impacts of such a shutdown would be severe, including a cooling throughout the Northern Hemisphere, which in some regions is greater in magnitude than the changes expected from global warming in the next 50 years. Other climatic impacts would likely include a severe alteration of rainfall patterns in the tropics, the Indian subcontinent and Europe. Modelling the future behaviour of the THC focuses on two key questions. (i) Is a gradual weakening of the THC likely in response to global warming, and if so by how much? (ii) Are there thresholds beyond which rapid or irreversible changes in the THC are likely? Most projections of the response of the THC to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases suggest a gradual weakening over the twenty-first century. However, there is a wide variation between different models over the size of the weakening. Rapid or irreversible THC shutdown is considered a low-probability (but high-impact) outcome; however, some climate models of intermediate complexity do show the possibility of such events. The question of the future of the THC is beset with conceptual, modelling and observational uncertainties, but some current and planned projects show promise to make substantial progress in tackling these uncertainties in future.

  7. Punishments and Prizes for Explaining Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Somerville, R. C.

    2006-12-01

    Some few gifted scientists, the late Carl Sagan being an iconic example, are superbly skilled at communicating science clearly and compellingly to non-scientists. Most scientists, however, have serious shortcomings as communicators. The common failings include being verbose, addicted to jargon, caveat- obsessed and focused on details. In addition, it is far easier for a scientist to scoff at the scientific illiteracy of modern society than to work at understanding the viewpoints and concerns of journalists, policymakers and the public. Obstacles await even those scientists with the desire and the talent to communicate science well. Peer pressure and career disincentives can act as powerful deterrents, discouraging especially younger scientists from spending time on non-traditional activities. Scientists often lack mentors and role models to help them develop skills in science communication. Journalists also face real difficulties in getting science stories approved by editors and other gatekeepers. Climate change science brings its own problems in communication. The science itself is unusually wide- ranging and complex. The contentious policies and politics of dealing with global warming are difficult to disentangle from the science. Misinformation and disinformation about climate change are widespread. Intimidation and censorship of scientists by some employers is a serious problem. Polls show that global warming ranks low on the public's list of important issues. Despite all the obstacles, communicating climate change science well is critically important today. It is an art that can be learned and that brings its own rewards and satisfactions. Academic institutions and research funding agencies increasingly value outreach by scientists, and they provide resources to facilitate it. Society needs scientists who can clearly and authoritatively explain the science of global warming and its implications, while remaining objective and policy-neutral. This need will

  8. Does coral bleaching mean global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, J.A.

    1991-02-01

    This article discusses the implications of global warming on the marine ecosystems. In recent hearings of the US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, plans were made to introduce legislation for control of greenhouse-gas emissions, conservation of biological diversity, forest conservation, world population planning, sustainable economic development , increased fuel efficiency, and increased research into Earth-system processes. Research is required to ascertain the meaning of coral bleaching, which is the mass expulsion of symbiotic algae, called zooxanthellae, which gives the coral its color. Many scientists think that the death of the algae is an early indicator for massive destruction of the marine ecosystem.

  9. Resource Letter: GW-1: Global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Firor, John W.

    1994-06-01

    This Resource Letter provides a guide to the literature on the possibility of a human-induced climate change—a global warming. Journal articles and books are cited for the following topics: the Greenhouse Effect, sources of infrared-trapping gases, climate models and their uncertainties, verification of climate models, past climate changes, and economics, ethics, and politics of policy responses to climate change. [The letter E after an item indicates elementary level or material of general interest to persons becoming informed in the field. The letter I, for intermediate level, indicates material of somewhat more specialized nature, and the letter A indicates rather specialized or advanced material.

  10. Global warming and carbon dioxide through sciences.

    PubMed

    Florides, Georgios A; Christodoulides, Paul

    2009-02-01

    Increased atmospheric CO(2)-concentration is widely being considered as the main driving factor that causes the phenomenon of global warming. This paper attempts to shed more light on the role of atmospheric CO(2) in relation to temperature-increase and, more generally, in relation to Earth's life through the geological aeons, based on a review-assessment of existing related studies. It is pointed out that there has been a debate on the accuracy of temperature reconstructions as well as on the exact impact that CO(2) has on global warming. Moreover, using three independent sets of data (collected from ice-cores and chemistry) we perform a specific regression analysis which concludes that forecasts about the correlation between CO(2)-concentration and temperature rely heavily on the choice of data used, and one cannot be positive that indeed such a correlation exists (for chemistry data) or even, if existing (for ice-cores data), whether it leads to a "severe" or a "gentle" global warming. A very recent development on the greenhouse phenomenon is a validated adiabatic model, based on laws of physics, forecasting a maximum temperature-increase of 0.01-0.03 degrees C for a value doubling the present concentration of atmospheric CO(2). Through a further review of related studies and facts from disciplines like biology and geology, where CO(2)-change is viewed from a different perspective, it is suggested that CO(2)-change is not necessarily always a negative factor for the environment. In fact it is shown that CO(2)-increase has stimulated the growth of plants, while the CO(2)-change history has altered the physiology of plants. Moreover, data from palaeoclimatology show that the CO(2)-content in the atmosphere is at a minimum in this geological aeon. Finally it is stressed that the understanding of the functioning of Earth's complex climate system (especially for water, solar radiation and so forth) is still poor and, hence, scientific knowledge is not at a level to

  11. Revaluating ocean warming impacts on global phytoplankton

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behrenfeld, Michael J.; O'Malley, Robert T.; Boss, Emmanuel S.; Westberry, Toby K.; Graff, Jason R.; Halsey, Kimberly H.; Milligan, Allen J.; Siegel, David A.; Brown, Matthew B.

    2016-03-01

    Global satellite observations document expansions of the low-chlorophyll central ocean gyres and an overall inverse relationship between anomalies in sea surface temperature and phytoplankton chlorophyll concentrations. These findings can provide an invaluable glimpse into potential future ocean changes, but only if the story they tell is accurately interpreted. Chlorophyll is not simply a measure of phytoplankton biomass, but also registers changes in intracellular pigmentation arising from light-driven (photoacclimation) and nutrient-driven physiological responses. Here, we show that the photoacclimation response is an important component of temporal chlorophyll variability across the global ocean. This attribution implies that contemporary relationships between chlorophyll changes and ocean warming are not indicative of proportional changes in productivity, as light-driven decreases in chlorophyll can be associated with constant or even increased photosynthesis. Extension of these results to future change, however, requires further evaluation of how the multifaceted stressors of a warmer, higher-CO2 world will impact plankton communities.

  12. Global warming and cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms.

    PubMed

    Paul, Valerie J

    2008-01-01

    The Earth and the oceans have warmed significantly over the past four decades, providing evidence that the Earth is undergoing long-term climate change. Increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns have been documented. Cyanobacteria have a long evolutionary history, with their first occurrence dating back at least 2.7 billion years ago. Cyanobacteria often dominated the oceans after past mass extinction events. They evolved under anoxic conditions and are well adapted to environmental stress including exposure to UV, high solar radiation and temperatures, scarce and abundant nutrients. These environmental conditions favor the dominance of cyanobacteria in many aquatic habitats, from freshwater to marine ecosystems. A few studies have examined the ecological consequences of global warming on cyanobacteria and other phytoplankton over the past decades in freshwater, estuarine, and marine environments, with varying results. The responses of cyanobacteria to changing environmental patterns associated with global climate change are important subjects for future research. Results of this research will have ecological and biogeochemical significance as well as management implications.

  13. Identifying the Molecular Origin of Global Warming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bera, Partha P.; Francisco, Joseph S.; Lee, Timothy J.

    2009-01-01

    We have investigated the physical characteristics of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to assess which properties are most important in determining the efficiency of a GHG. Chlorofluorcarbons (CFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), nitrogen fluorides, and various other known atmospheric trace molecules have been included in this study. Compounds containing the halogens F or Cl have in common very polar X-F or X-Cl bonds, particularly the X-F bonds. It is shown that as more F atoms bond to the same central atom, the bond dipoles become larger as a result of the central atom becoming more positive. This leads to a linear increase in the total or integrated XF bond dipole derivatives for the molecule, which leads to a non-linear (quadratic) increase in infrared (IR) intensity. Moreover, virtually all of the X-F bond stretches occur in the atmospheric IR window as opposed to X-H stretches, which do not occur in the atmospheric window. It is concluded that molecules possessing several F atoms will always have a large radiative forcing parameter in the calculation of their global warming potential. Some of the implications for global warming and climate change are discussed.

  14. Can reducing black carbon emissions counteract global warming?

    PubMed

    Bond, Tami C; Sun, Haolin

    2005-08-15

    Field measurements and model results have recently shown that aerosols may have important climatic impacts. One line of inquiry has investigated whether reducing climate-warming soot or black carbon aerosol emissions can form a viable component of mitigating global warming. We review and acknowledge scientific arguments against considering aerosols and greenhouse gases in a common framework, including the differences in the physical mechanisms of climate change and relevant time scales. We argue that such a joint consideration is consistent with the language of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. We synthesize results from published climate-modeling studies to obtain a global warming potential for black carbon relative to that of CO2 (680 on a 100 year basis). This calculation enables a discussion of cost-effectiveness for mitigating the largest sources of black carbon. We find that many emission reductions are either expensive or difficult to enact when compared with greenhouse gases, particularly in Annex I countries. Finally, we propose a role for black carbon in climate mitigation strategies that is consistent with the apparently conflicting arguments raised during our discussion. Addressing these emissions is a promising way to reduce climatic interference primarily for nations that have not yet agreed to address greenhouse gas emissions and provides the potential for a parallel climate agreement.

  15. Global Warming Estimation From Microwave Sounding Unit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Dalu, G.

    1998-01-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 data sets, collected from sequential, polar-orbiting, Sun-synchronous National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration operational satellites, contain systematic calibration errors that are coupled to the diurnal temperature cycle over the globe. Since these coupled errors in MSU data differ between successive satellites, it is necessary to make compensatory adjustments to these multisatellite data sets in order to determine long-term global temperature change. With the aid of the observations during overlapping periods of successive satellites, we can determine such adjustments and use them to account for the coupled errors in the long-term time series of MSU Ch 2 global temperature. In turn, these adjusted MSU Ch 2 data sets can be used to yield global temperature trend. In a pioneering study, Spencer and Christy (SC) (1990) developed a procedure to derive the global temperature trend from MSU Ch 2 data. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedure, the magnitude of the coupled errors is not determined explicitly. Furthermore, based on some assumptions, these coupled errors are eliminated in three separate steps. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedures. Based on our analysis, we find there is a global warming of 0.23+/-0.12 K between 1980 and 1991. Also, in this study, the time series of global temperature anomalies constructed by removing the global mean annual temperature cycle compares favorably with a similar

  16. Potential effects on health of global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Haines, A. . Whittington Hospital); Parry, M. . Environmental Change Unit)

    1993-12-01

    Prediction of the impacts of global climate change on health is complicated by a number of factors. These include: the difficulty in predicting regional changes in climate, the capacity for adaptation to climate change, the interactions between the effects of global climate change and a number of other key determinants of health, including population growth and poverty, and the availability of adequate preventive and curative facilities for diseases that may be effected by climate change. Nevertheless, it is of importance to consider the potential health impacts of global climate change for a number of reasons. It is also important to monitor diseases which could be effected by climate change in order to detect changes in incidence as early as possible and study possible interactions with other factors. It seems likely that the possible impacts on health of climate change will be a major determinant of the degree to which policies aimed at reducing global warming are followed, as perceptions of the effect of climate change to human health and well-being are particularly likely to influence public opinion. The potential health impacts of climate change can be divided into direct (primary) and indirect (secondary and tertiary) effects. Primary effects are those related to the effect of temperature on human well-being and disease. Secondary effects include the impacts on health of changes in food production, availability of water and of sea level rise. A tertiary level of impacts can also be hypothesized.

  17. Do global warming targets limit heatwave risk?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, Robin T.; Murphy, James M.; Brown, Simon J.

    2010-09-01

    Climate change mitigation targets are often described in terms of annually averaged global mean temperature increases. However local interpretation of impacts resulting from these targets are required if the public is to have a sound appreciation of their consequences. Some of the largest impacts are likely to arise from changes in extreme events, for example heatwaves and floods. This article estimates future regional heat extreme changes consistent with specific global warming targets, using a new and presently unique ensemble of physically plausible climate simulations. We find that a subset of ensemble members giving globally averaged temperature increases of 2.0 ± 0.5°C shows a wide range of changes in regional temperature extremes. For example, changes in extreme single-day hot events range between 2 and 6 °C for large parts of Europe, North America and Asia for this target. Plausible variations in the model representation of forest roughness length, vegetation root depth and boundary layer cloud make the largest individual contributions to the spread of changes found in different parts of the world. However, a wide range of processes contribute to the uncertainties in the regional changes, particularly through their direct or indirect influences on the simulation of soil moisture.

  18. Halocarbon ozone depletion and global warming potentials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cox, Richard A.; Wuebbles, D.; Atkinson, R.; Connell, Peter S.; Dorn, H. P.; Derudder, A.; Derwent, Richard G.; Fehsenfeld, F. C.; Fisher, D.; Isaksen, Ivar S. A.

    1990-01-01

    Concern over the global environmental consequences of fully halogenated chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) has created a need to determine the potential impacts of other halogenated organic compounds on stratospheric ozone and climate. The CFCs, which do not contain an H atom, are not oxidized or photolyzed in the troposphere. These compounds are transported into the stratosphere where they decompose and can lead to chlorine catalyzed ozone depletion. The hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs or HFCs), in particular those proposed as substitutes for CFCs, contain at least one hydrogen atom in the molecule, which confers on these compounds a much greater sensitivity toward oxidation by hydroxyl radicals in the troposphere, resulting in much shorter atmospheric lifetimes than CFCs, and consequently lower potential for depleting ozone. The available information is reviewed which relates to the lifetime of these compounds (HCFCs and HFCs) in the troposphere, and up-to-date assessments are reported of the potential relative effects of CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, and halons on stratospheric ozone and global climate (through 'greenhouse' global warming).

  19. Global Warming: The Threat to the Planet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, James

    2007-04-01

    Paleoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the `albedo flip' property of water substance, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that `flips' the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Ice sheet and ocean inertia provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. CO2 is the largest human-made climate forcing, but CH4, O3, N2O and black carbon (BC) are important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could still ``save the Arctic,'' while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity, and the global environment.

  20. Global warming and changes in ocean circulation

    SciTech Connect

    Duffy, P.B.; Caldeira, K.C.

    1998-02-01

    This final report provides an overview of the goals and accomplishments of this project. Modeling and observational work has raised the possibility that global warming may cause changes in the circulation of the ocean. If such changes would occur they could have important climatic consequences. The first technical goal of this project was to investigate some of these possible changes in ocean circulation in a quantitative way, using a state-of -the-art numerical model of the ocean. Another goal was to develop our ocean model, a detailed three-dimensional numerical model of the ocean circulation and ocean carbon cycles. A major non-technical goal was to establish LLNL as a center of excellence in modelling the ocean circulation and carbon cycle.

  1. Drought under Global Warming: A Review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, A.

    2011-12-01

    One of the big concerns associated with global warming is the potential change to land surface moisture conditions that could have a huge impact on agriculture, freshwater resources, and many other aspects of our society and the environment. How drought has changed during recent past and how it might change in the coming decades is increasingly becoming a great concern as global warming continues and more severe droughts are reported in the media. In this presentation, I will provide an overview, based on my own and others' work, of how drought has changed in the last several centuries and during recent decades over many regions around the world based on historical records, and how it might change in the coming decades based on IPCC AR4 model-predicted climate changes. I will present results from analyses of changes in precipitation, streamflow, soil moisture, and (improved) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to show that aridity has increased during the last 50-60 years over many land areas, and rapid warming since the 1980s has contributed significantly to this drying. The PDSI (with improved evapotranspiration estimates) calculated from the AR4 multi-model predicted future climate suggests severe drying in the next 20-50 years over most land areas except the northern high-latitudes and parts of Asia. This drying pattern is consistent with other analyses of model-predicted soil moisture and precipitation changes. Although the quantitative interpretation of the future PDSI values may need to be cautious, combined with the other analyses, the PDSI result points to a dire situation with more severe to extreme droughts in the coming decades over the continental U.S., most of Africa and South America, Australia, southern Europe, and western and southeastern Asia. Changes in precipitation play an important role over many land areas, but enhanced evaporation due to increased radiative heating is also a major factor for the model-predicted drying. For more details, see

  2. Applying evolutionary biology to address global challenges

    PubMed Central

    Carroll, Scott P.; Jørgensen, Peter Søgaard; Kinnison, Michael T.; Bergstrom, Carl T.; Denison, R. Ford; Gluckman, Peter; Smith, Thomas B.; Strauss, Sharon Y.; Tabashnik, Bruce E.

    2014-01-01

    Two categories of evolutionary challenges result from escalating human impacts on the planet. The first arises from cancers, pathogens and pests that evolve too quickly, and the second from the inability of many valued species to adapt quickly enough. Applied evolutionary biology provides a suite of strategies to address these global challenges that threaten human health, food security, and biodiversity. This review highlights both progress and gaps in genetic, developmental and environmental manipulations across the life sciences that either target the rate and direction of evolution, or reduce the mismatch between organisms and human-altered environments. Increased development and application of these underused tools will be vital in meeting current and future targets for sustainable development. PMID:25213376

  3. Applying evolutionary biology to address global challenges.

    PubMed

    Carroll, Scott P; Jørgensen, Peter Søgaard; Kinnison, Michael T; Bergstrom, Carl T; Denison, R Ford; Gluckman, Peter; Smith, Thomas B; Strauss, Sharon Y; Tabashnik, Bruce E

    2014-10-17

    Two categories of evolutionary challenges result from escalating human impacts on the planet. The first arises from cancers, pathogens, and pests that evolve too quickly and the second, from the inability of many valued species to adapt quickly enough. Applied evolutionary biology provides a suite of strategies to address these global challenges that threaten human health, food security, and biodiversity. This Review highlights both progress and gaps in genetic, developmental, and environmental manipulations across the life sciences that either target the rate and direction of evolution or reduce the mismatch between organisms and human-altered environments. Increased development and application of these underused tools will be vital in meeting current and future targets for sustainable development.

  4. Global Warming and 21st Century Drying

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdun, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Coats, Sloan

    2014-01-01

    Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twentyfirst century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman- Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both

  5. A new type of debate for global warming and scientific literacy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gautier, Catherine

    2012-09-01

    Expanding on some ideas introduced in the paper by Albe and Gombert (2012) " Students' communication, argumentation and knowledge in a citizen' conference on global warming", I explore two issues relevant to their work: global warming (GW) as a socioscientific controversy and scientific literacy in regards to climate change science. For the first issue, the definition of GW socioscientific controversy provided in the article raises controversies in both scientific communities and society or social groups concerned by the issue. I review this from two perspectives that can be considered at the extreme ends of a spectrum of perspectives. I then address the role of debates in education about global warming and climate change and suggest a new type of classroom debates to replace those addressing the existence and cause of global warming.

  6. Global warming 2007. An update to global warming: the balance of evidence and its policy implications.

    PubMed

    Keller, Charles F

    2007-03-09

    century or so. However, this conclusion is being challenged by differing interpretations of satellite observations of Total Solar Insolation (TSI). Different satellites give different estimates of TSI during the 1996-7 solar activity minimum. A recent study using the larger TSI satellite interpretation indicates a stronger role for the sun, and until there is agreement on TSI at solar minimum, we caution completely disregarding the sun as a significant factor in recent warming. Computer models continue to improve and, while they still do not do a satisfactory job of predicting regional changes, their simulations of global aspects of climate change and of individual forcings are increasingly reliable. In addition to these four areas, the past five years have seen advances in our understanding of many other aspects of climate change--from albedo changes due to land use to the dynamics of glacier movement. However, these more are of second order importance and will only be treated very briefly. The big news since CFK03 is the first of these, the collapse of the climate critics' last real bastion, namely that satellites and radiosondes show no significant warming in the past quarter century. Figuratively speaking, this was the center pole that held up the critics' entire "tent." Their argument was that, if there had been little warming in the past 25 years or so, then what warming was observed would have been within the range of natural variations with solar forcing as the major player. Further, the models would have been shown to be unreliable since they were predicting warming that was not happening. But now both satellite and in-situ radiosonde observations have been shown to corroborate both the surface observations of warming and the model predictions. Thus, while uncertainties still remain, we are now seeing a coherent picture in which past climate variations, solar and other forcings, model predictions and other indicators such as glacier recession all point to a human

  7. Current status and direction of US global warming policy

    SciTech Connect

    Gardiner, D.

    1997-12-31

    The pace and intensity of U.S. global warming efforts have been increasing over the past few years for three main reasons: (1) steady improvement in the underlying science that is in turn strengthening public support for action; (2) the likelihood that the United States will fall short of our national goal of stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels by the year 2000; and (3) U.S. participation in international negotiations to address global climate change. The expansion of U.S. global warming activities can be seen at the state, federal, and international levels. At the state level, for example, a majority of states have completed greenhouse gas emissions inventories, several have undertaken analyses of mitigation options, and some are already beginning to take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. At the federal level, all federal agencies with an interest in global warming are working together to define the likely consequences of continued increases in greenhouse gas emissions, inform the public about Such consequences, and assess the costs and benefits of different response options. Among the response options being assessed are actions to expand the use of energy efficient technologies; new controls on greenhouse gas emissions through -- for example - government standards, regulations, or emissions trading programs; and increased research and development of technologies less dependent on fossil fuels. Finally, at the international level, the United States is continuing to develop the position it will take to the climate change negotiations to be held in Japan this December. Among, other things, we have proposed enforceable emissions targets for developed countries, a strong program of reporting and compliance, new efforts by developing countries to prepare emissions inventories and mitigate emissions, and an international emissions trading program.

  8. A global warming forum: Scientific, economic, and legal overview

    SciTech Connect

    Geyer, R.A.

    1993-01-01

    A Global Warming Forum covers in detail five general subject areas aimed at providing first, the scientific background and technical information available on global warming and second, a study and evaluation of the role of economic, legal, and political considerations in global warming. The five general topic areas discussed are the following: (1) The role of geophysical and geoengineering methods to solve problems related to global climatic change; (2) the role of oceanographic and geochemical methods to provide evidence for global climatic change; (3) the global assessment of greenhouse gas production including the need for additional information; (4) natural resource management needed to provide long-term global energy and agricultural uses; (5) legal, policy, and educational considerations required to properly evaluate global warming proposals.

  9. Global crop yield losses from recent warming

    SciTech Connect

    Lobell, D; Field, C

    2006-06-02

    Global yields of the world-s six most widely grown crops--wheat, rice, maize, soybeans, barley, sorghum--have increased since 1961. Year-to-year variations in growing season minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation explain 30% or more of the variations in yield. Since 1991, climate trends have significantly decreased yield trends in all crops but rice, leading to foregone production since 1981 of about 12 million tons per year of wheat or maize, representing an annual economic loss of $1.2 to $1.7 billion. At the global scale, negative impacts of climate trends on crop yields are already apparent. Annual global temperatures have increased by {approx}0.4 C since 1980, with even larger changes observed in several regions (1). While many studies have considered the impacts of future climate changes on food production (2-5), the effects of these past changes on agriculture remain unclear. It is likely that warming has improved yields in some areas, reduced them in others, and had negligible impacts in still others; the relative balance of these effects at the global scale is unknown. An understanding of this balance would help to anticipate impacts of future climate changes, as well as to more accurately assess recent (and thereby project future) technologically driven yield progress. Separating the contribution of climate from concurrent changes in other factors--such as crop cultivars, management practices, soil quality, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) levels--requires models that describe the response of yields to climate. Studies of future global impacts of climate change have typically relied on a bottom-up approach, whereby field scale, process-based models are applied to hundreds of representative sites and then averaged (e.g., ref 2). Such approaches require input data on soil and management conditions, which are often difficult to obtain. Limitations on data quality or quantity can thus limit the utility of this approach

  10. Situational Influences upon Children's Beliefs about Global Warming and Energy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Devine-Wright, Patrick; Devine-Wright, Hannah; Fleming, Paul

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores children's beliefs about global warming and energy sources from a psychological perspective, focusing upon situational influences upon subjective beliefs, including perceived self-efficacy. The context of the research is one of growing concern at the potential impacts of global warming, yet demonstrably low levels of…

  11. Expansion of World Drylands Under Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, S.; Fu, Q.; Hu, Q. S.

    2012-12-01

    The world drylands including both semi-arid and arid regions comprise of one-third of the global land surfaces, which support 14% of the world's inhabitants and a significant share of the world agriculture. Because of meager annual precipitation and large potential evaporative water loss, the ecosystems over drylands are fragile and sensitive to the global change. By analyzing the observations during 1948-2008 and 20 fully coupled climate model simulations from CMIP5 for the period 1900-2100, this study evaluated the changes of the world drylands that are defined with a modified form of the Thornthwaite's moisture index. The results based on observational data showed that the world drylands are steadily expanding during the past 60 years. The areas occupied by drylands in 1994-2008 is about 2.0×10^6km^2 (or 4%) larger than the average during the 1950s. Such an expansion is also a robust feature in the simulations of the 20 global climate models, though the rate is much smaller in the models. A stronger expanding rate is projected during the first half of this century than the simulations in the last century, followed by accelerating expansion after 2050s under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5). By the end of this century, the world drylands are projected to be over 58×10^6km^2 (or 11% increase compared to the 1961-1990 climatology). The projected expansion of drylands, however, is not homogeneous over the world drylands, with major expansion of arid regions over the southwest North America, the northern fringe of Africa, southern Africa and Australia. Major expansions of semi-arid regions are projected over the north side of the Mediterranean, southern Africa, North and South America. The global warming is the main factor causing the increase of potential evapotranspiration estimated by Penman-Monteith algorithm, which in turn dominants the expansion of drylands. The widening of Hadley cell, which has impact on both temperature and precipitation

  12. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming.

    PubMed

    Lineman, Maurice; Do, Yuno; Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined. PMID:26418127

  13. Microbial diseases of corals and global warming.

    PubMed

    Rosenberg, Eugene; Ben-Haim, Yael

    2002-06-01

    Coral bleaching and other diseases of corals have increased dramatically during the last few decades. As outbreaks of these diseases are highly correlated with increased sea-water temperature, one of the consequences of global warming will probably be mass destruction of coral reefs. The causative agent(s) of a few of these diseases have been reported: bleaching of Oculina patagonica by Vibrio shiloi; black band disease by a microbial consortium; sea-fan disease (aspergillosis) by Aspergillus sydowii; and coral white plague possibly by Sphingomonas sp. In addition, we have recently discovered that Vibrio coralyticus is the aetiological agent for bleaching the coral Pocillopora damicornis in the Red Sea. In the case of coral bleaching by V. shiloi, the major effect of increasing temperature is the expression of virulence genes by the pathogen. At high summer sea-water temperatures, V. shiloi produces an adhesin that allows it to adhere to a beta-galactoside-containing receptor in the coral mucus, penetrate into the coral epidermis, multiply intracellularly, differentiate into a viable-but-not-culturable (VBNC) state and produce toxins that inhibit photosynthesis and lyse the symbiotic zooxanthellae. In black band disease, sulphide is produced at the coral-microbial biofilm interface, which is probably responsible for tissue death. Reports of newly emerging coral diseases and the lack of epidemiological and biochemical information on the known diseases indicate that this will become a fertile area of research in the interface between microbial ecology and infectious disease.

  14. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming.

    PubMed

    Lineman, Maurice; Do, Yuno; Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined.

  15. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined. PMID:26418127

  16. Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.

    2000-01-01

    Evidence on a broad range of time scales, from Proterozoic to the most recent periods, shows that the Earth's climate responds sensitively to global forcings. In the past few decades the Earth's surface has warmed rapidly, apparently in response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The conventional view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate in the 21st century. I will describe an alternate scenario that would slow the rate of global warming and reduce the danger of dramatic climate change. But reliable prediction of future climate change requires improved knowledge of the carbon cycle and global observations that allow interpretation of ongoing climate change.

  17. Global Warming in Schools: An Inquiry about the Competing Conceptions of High School Social Studies and Science Curricula and Teachers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meehan, Casey R.

    Despite the scientific consensus supporting the theory of anthropogenic (human-induced) global warming, whether global warming is a serious problem, whether human activity is the primary cause of it, and whether scientific consensus exists at all are controversial questions among the U.S. lay-public. The cultural theory of risk perception (Schwarz and Thompson, 1990) serves as the theoretical framework for this qualitative analysis in which I ask the question how do U.S. secondary school curricula and teachers deal with the disparity between the overwhelming scientific consensus and the lay-public's skepticism regarding global warming? I analyzed nine widely used social studies and science textbooks, eight sets of supplemental materials about global warming produced by a range of not-for-profit and governmental organizations, and interviewed fourteen high school teachers who had experience teaching formal lessons about global warming in their content area. Findings suggest: 1) the range of global warming content within social studies and science textbooks and supplemental curricula reflects the spectrum of conceptualizations found among members of the U.S. public; 2) global warming curricula communicate only a narrow range of strategies for dealing with global warming and its associated threats; and 3) social studies and science teachers report taking a range of stances about global warming in their classroom, but sometimes the stance they put forth to their students does not align with their personal beliefs about global warming. The findings pose a troubling conundrum. Some of the global warming curricula treat the cause of global warming--a question that is not scientifically controversial--as a question with multiple and competing "right" answers. At the same time, much of curricula position how we should address global warming--a question that is legitimately controversial--as a question with one correct answer despite there being many reasonable responses

  18. Global warming and neurodegenerative disorders: speculations on their linkage.

    PubMed

    Habibi, Laleh; Perry, George; Mahmoudi, Morteza

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is having considerable impact on biological systems. Eras of ice ages and warming shaped the contemporary earth and origin of creatures including humans. Warming forces stress conditions on cells. Therefore, cells evolved elaborate defense mechanisms, such as creation of heat shock proteins, to combat heat stress. Global warming is becoming a crisis and this process would yield an undefined increasing rate of neurodegenerative disorders in future decades. Since heat stress is known to have a degenerative effects on neurons and, conversely, cold conditions have protective effect on these cells, we hypothesize that persistent heat stress forced by global warming might play a crucial role in increasing neurodegenerative disorders.

  19. Global warming and neurodegenerative disorders: speculations on their linkage

    PubMed Central

    Habibi, Laleh; Perry, George; Mahmoudi, Morteza

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is having considerable impact on biological systems. Eras of ice ages and warming shaped the contemporary earth and origin of creatures including humans. Warming forces stress conditions on cells. Therefore, cells evolved elaborate defense mechanisms, such as creation of heat shock proteins, to combat heat stress. Global warming is becoming a crisis and this process would yield an undefined increasing rate of neurodegenerative disorders in future decades. Since heat stress is known to have a degenerative effects on neurons and, conversely, cold conditions have protective effect on these cells, we hypothesize that persistent heat stress forced by global warming might play a crucial role in increasing neurodegenerative disorders. PMID:25671171

  20. Global Warming and Glaciers Melting at Fjords in Greenland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coelho, Pablo

    2015-04-01

    This paper presents a discussion on the validation or not of a likely paradigm about the melting of polar glaciers and their direct impact on increasing ocean levels. Physico-chemical properties of ocean waters, as well as anomalies in the thermal behavior of water are used as providers of this discussion using fjords of Greenland as study area. This text seeks to infer the relationship between the most recent developments in global warming, specifically dealing with the melting of glaciers located in fjords in the eastern part of Greenland, increasing the water temperature in ocean currents and changes in sea levels. We emphasize the importance of the correlation of the water physico-chemical characteristics in these changes perceived in the studied environment. Greenland is defined by convention as the widest oceanic island in the world. In its fjords formed in the last glaciation of the Quaternary period, basically made of ice mountains with entries to the sea, there has been melts that are discussed in this work. At first, global warming and the melting of glaciers with a consequent rise in sea levels are presented almost as an axiom. This paper seeks to address the conclusions arising from this type of research according the basic laws of physics and chemistry, related to the behavior of water in their states (typically solid and liquid). The ultimate goal of this work glimpsed through some inferences and validation of water behavior in the ice condition and in its liquid state, a broader view with regard to the findings applied to the relationship between global warming and ice melting processes. Will be observed some water anomalies in the variation between its liquid and solid states to attempt a better understanding of the phenomena occurring in this area of interest as well as their possible impacts. It is noteworthy the fact that the water does not behave thermally as most liquids, with very specific consequences in relation to the variation between its

  1. Global warming, energy use, and economic growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khanna, Neha

    The dissertation comprises four papers that explore the interactions between global warming, energy use, and economic growth. While the papers are separate entities, they share the underlying theme of highlighting national differences in the growth experience and their implications for long-term energy use and climate change. The first paper provides an overview of some key economic issues in the climate change literature. In doing so, the paper critically appraises the 1995 draft report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The focus is the choice of a pure rate of time preference in the economic modeling of climate change, abatement costs differentials between developed and developing countries, and contrasting implications of standard discount rates and value of life estimates for these two country groups. The second paper develops a global model that takes account of the depletion of oil resources in the context of a geo-economic model for climate change. It is found that in the presence of non-decreasing carbon and energy intensities and declining petroleum availability, the carbon emissions trajectory is much higher than that typically projected by other models of this genre. Furthermore, by introducing price and income sensitive demand functions for fossil fuels, the model provides a framework to assess the effectiveness of fuel specific carbon taxes in reducing the COsb2 emissions trajectory. Cross-price substitution effects necessitate unrealistically high tax rates in order to lower the projected emissions trajectory to the optimal level. The economic structure of five integrated assessment models for climate change is reviewed in the third paper, with a special focus on the macroeconomic and damage assessment modules. The final paper undertakes an econometric estimation of the changing shares of capital, labour, energy, and technical change in explaining the growth patterns of 38 countries. Production elasticities vary by

  2. Does Climate Literacy Matter? A Case Study of U.S. Students' Level of Concern about Anthropogenic Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bedford, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Educators seeking to address global warming in their classrooms face numerous challenges, including the question of whether student opinions about anthropogenic global warming (AGW) can change in response to increased knowledge about the climate system. This article analyzes survey responses from 458 students at a primarily undergraduate…

  3. Carbon cycle: Global warming then and now

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stassen, Peter

    2016-04-01

    A rapid warming event 55.8 million years ago was caused by extensive carbon emissions. The rate of change of carbon and oxygen isotopes in marine shelf sediments suggests that carbon emission rates were much slower than anthropogenic emissions.

  4. The impact of global warming on Mount Everest.

    PubMed

    Moore, G W K; Semple, John L

    2009-01-01

    Global warming impacts a wide range of human activities and ecosystems. One unanticipated consequence of the warming is an increase in barometric pressure throughout the troposphere. Mount Everest's extreme height and resulting low barometric pressure places humans near its summit in an extreme state of hypoxia. Here we quantify the degree with which this warming is increasing the barometric pressure near Everest's summit and argue that it is of such a magnitude as to make the mountain, over time, easier to climb.

  5. Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth’s energy imbalance

    PubMed Central

    Drijfhout, Sybren

    2015-01-01

    A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15–20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40–50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible. PMID:26437599

  6. The effect of global warming on infectious diseases.

    PubMed

    Kurane, Ichiro

    2010-12-01

    Global warming has various effects on human health. The main indirect effects are on infectious diseases. Although the effects on infectious diseases will be detected worldwide, the degree and types of the effect are different, depending on the location of the respective countries and socioeconomical situations. Among infectious diseases, water- and foodborne infectious diseases and vector-borne infectious diseases are two main categories that are forecasted to be most affected. The effect on vector-borne infectious diseases such as malaria and dengue fever is mainly because of the expansion of the infested areas of vector mosquitoes and increase in the number and feeding activity of infected mosquitoes. There will be increase in the number of cases with water- and foodborne diarrhoeal diseases. Even with the strongest mitigation procedures, global warming cannot be avoided for decades. Therefore, implementation of adaptation measures to the effect of global warming is the most practical action we can take. It is generally accepted that the impacts of global warming on infectious diseases have not been apparent at this point yet in East Asia. However, these impacts will appear in one form or another if global warming continues to progress in future. Further research on the impacts of global warming on infectious diseases and on future prospects should be conducted.

  7. Global warming description using Daisyworld model with greenhouse gases.

    PubMed

    Paiva, Susana L D; Savi, Marcelo A; Viola, Flavio M; Leiroz, Albino J K

    2014-11-01

    Daisyworld is an archetypal model of the earth that is able to describe the global regulation that can emerge from the interaction between life and environment. This article proposes a model based on the original Daisyworld considering greenhouse gases emission and absorption, allowing the description of the global warming phenomenon. Global and local analyses are discussed evaluating the influence of greenhouse gases in the planet dynamics. Numerical simulations are carried out showing the general qualitative behavior of the Daisyworld for different scenarios that includes solar luminosity variations and greenhouse gases effect. Nonlinear dynamics perspective is of concern discussing a way that helps the comprehension of the global warming phenomenon.

  8. Recent warming at Summit, Greenland: Global context and implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGrath, Daniel; Colgan, William; Bayou, Nicolas; Muto, Atsuhiro; Steffen, Konrad

    2013-05-01

    at Summit, Greenland suggest that the annual mean near-surface air temperature increased at 0.09 ± 0.01°C/a over the 1982-2011 climatology period. This rate of warming, six times the global average, places Summit in the 99th percentile of all globally observed warming trends over this period. The rate of warming at Summit is increasing over time. During the instrumental period (1987-2011), warming has been greatest in the winter season, although the implications of summer warming are more acute. The annual maximum elevation of the equilibrium line and dry snow line has risen at 44 and 35 m/a over the past 15 and 18 years, respectively. Extrapolation of this observed trend now suggests, with 95% confidence intervals, that the dry snow facies of the Greenland Ice Sheet will inevitably transition to percolation facies. There is a 50% probability of this transition occurring by 2025.

  9. Global Warming and Neotropical Rainforests: A Historical Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaramillo, Carlos; Cárdenas, Andrés

    2013-05-01

    There is concern over the future of the tropical rainforest (TRF) in the face of global warming. Will TRFs collapse? The fossil record can inform us about that. Our compilation of 5,998 empirical estimates of temperature over the past 120 Ma indicates that tropics have warmed as much as 7°C during both the mid-Cretaceous and the Paleogene. We analyzed the paleobotanical record of South America during the Paleogene and found that the TRF did not expand toward temperate latitudes during global warm events, even though temperatures were appropriate for doing so, suggesting that solar insolation can be a constraint on the distribution of the tropical biome. Rather, a novel biome, adapted to temperate latitudes with warm winters, developed south of the tropical zone. The TRF did not collapse during past warmings; on the contrary, its diversity increased. The increase in temperature seems to be a major driver in promoting diversity.

  10. Atmospheric General Circulation Changes under Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palipane, Erool

    The work in this thesis is mainly two-fold. First we study the internal variability of the general circulation and focus our study on the annular modes and how important it is to simulate the subsynoptic scales in the circulation. In the next major section we will try to understand the mechanisms of the forced response and the mechanisms leading towards the jet shift from transient evolution in Atmospheric general circulation models. In the first part, in an attempt to assess the benefit of resolving the sub-synoptic to mesoscale processes, the spatial and temporal characteristics of the Annular Modes (AMs), in particular those related to the troposphere-stratosphere interaction, are evaluated for moderate- and high-horizontal resolution simulations with a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), in comparison with the ERA40 re- analysis. Relative to the CMIP-type climate models, the IFS AGCM demonstrates notable improvement in capturing the key characteristics of the AMs. Notably, the performance with the high horizontal resolution version of the model is systematically superior to the moderate resolution on all metrics examined, including the variance of the AMs at different seasons of the year, the intrinsic e-folding time scales of the AMs, and the downward influence from the stratosphere to troposphere in the AMs. Moreover, the high-resolution simulation with a greater persistence in the intrinsic variability of the SAM projects an appreciably larger shift of the surface westerly wind during the Southern Hemisphere summer under climate change. In the second part, the response of the atmospheric circulation to greenhouse gas-induced SST warming is investigated using large ensemble experiments with two AGCMs, with a focus on the robust feature of the poleward shift of the eddy driven jet. In these experiments, large ensembles of simulations are conducted by abruptly switching the SST forcing on from January 1st to focus on the wintertime circulation

  11. Limiting Global Warming to 2 deg C and Beyond

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lea, D. W.

    2011-12-01

    This presentation addresses the question of how feasible is it to limit global warming to a specific temperature rise, whether 1.5, 2 or 3 deg C. Inherent in the idea of limiting global warming to a specific temperature level is the notion that future GHG emissions will be subject to a top-down international agreement. In the post-Copenhagen era, however, such an agreement is unlikely, and a bottoms-up approach of national pledges will likely have to serve as a surrogate for achieving emissions reduction. In this case, an additional question is what temperature targets are realistic under scenarios that are bounded by achievable national pledges as opposed to binding mandates. The question of feasibility depends largely on future emission pathways of CO2, other GHGs, black carbon and aerosols. Those pathways depend on many societal, technological and economic factors, but it is likely that the ultimate limiting factor is the maximum possible rate of absolute emission reduction. That rate is limited by how rapidly energy infrastructure can be turned over. Most studies suggest that an absolute emission reduction rate of 3.5% is the highest rate achievable. Climate sensitivity and the current cooling effect of aerosols and earth system responses such as the rate of ocean heat uptake and carbon cycle feedbacks determine how a specific emissions pathway translates into probable climate change. A useful framework for CO2 alone is provided by the newly emerging paradigm of cumulative emissions, which holds that peak temperature can be largely predicted by the total amount of carbon emitted, regardless of pathway. Most studies suggest that 1 Tt of cumulative carbon is equivalent to ~2 deg of peak warming. A consideration of these factors suggests that limiting warming to 1.5 deg C is no longer possible under any feasible economic scenario. For one, currently emitted GHGs are equivalent to a ~1.3 deg C warming commitment. This leaves very little room for future emissions

  12. Surface measurements of global warming causing atmospheric constituents in Korea.

    PubMed

    Oh, S N; Youn, Y H; Park, K J; Min, H K; Schnell, R C

    2001-07-01

    The expansion of the industrial economy and the increase of population in Northeast Asian countries have caused much interest in climate monitoring related to global warming. However, new techniques and better platforms for the measurement of global warming and regional databases are still old-fashioned and are not being developed sufficiently. With respect to this agenda, since 1993, at the request of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), to monitor functions of global warming, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has set up a Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) Station on the western coast of Korea (Anmyun-do) and has been actively monitoring global warming over Northeast Asia. In addition, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) has been measured for a similar KMA global warming program at Kosan, Cheju Island since 1990. Aerosol and radiation have also been measured at both sites as well as in Seoul. The observations have been analyzed using diagnostics of climate change in Northeast Asia and also have been internationally compared. Results indicate that greenhouse gases are in good statistic agreement with the NOAA/Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL) long-term trends of monthly mean concentrations and seasonal cycles. Atmospheric particulate matter has also been analyzed for particular Asian types in terms of optical depth, number concentration and size distribution.

  13. Global Warming - Myth or Reality?, The Erring Ways of Climatology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leroux, Marcel

    In the global-warming debate, definitive answers to questions about ultimate causes and effects remain elusive. In Global Warming: Myth or Reality? Marcel Leroux seeks to separate fact from fiction in this critical debate from a climatological perspective. Beginning with a review of the dire hypotheses for climate trends, the author describes the history of the 1998 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and many subsequent conferences. He discusses the main conclusions of the three IPCC reports and the predicted impact on global temperatures, rainfall, weather and climate, while highlighting the mounting confusion and sensationalism of reports in the media.

  14. Large-scale dynamics and global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Held, I.M. )

    1993-02-01

    Predictions of future climate change raise a variety of issues in large-scale atmospheric and oceanic dynamics. Several of these are reviewed in this essay, including the sensitivity of the circulation of the Atlantic Ocean to increasing freshwater input at high latitudes; the possibility of greenhouse cooling in the southern oceans; the sensitivity of monsoonal circulations to differential warming of the two hemispheres; the response of midlatitude storms to changing temperature gradients and increasing water vapor in the atmosphere; and the possible importance of positive feedback between the mean winds and eddy-induced heating in the polar stratosphere.

  15. The Hydrological Cycle Response to Rapid vs. Slow Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Russ, K. L.; Back, L. E.; Liu, Z.; Inoue, K.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.

    2012-12-01

    Held and Soden (2006) compared climate simulations of the 21st century included in the 4th Assessment Report of the IPCC (2007). All showed an increase of about 7.5% in globally averaged water vapor for each degree Celsius (C°) increase in globally averaged surface temperature. This result was thought to be explained by plugging a representative surface or lower tropospheric temperature into the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. We find this is not the case for a 22,000-year paleoclimate simulation, where water vapor increases at a rate of only 4.2% per C°. This is not due to relative humidity changes or differences in absolute temperature. Instead, this is due to the geographic pattern of warming during the paleoclimate. Most water vapor resides in the tropics and 1 K of global surface warming is relatively more concentrated in the tropics for rapid anthropogenic-like warming than for slow, paleoclimate warming. This is due to thermal inertia of the southern ocean. We conclude that the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship applied to surface temperature cannot by itself constrain the rate of change in globally averaged water vapor with globally averaged surface temperature. Thus we propose an alternate formula that applies more generally to warming scenarios.

  16. Good enough tools for global warming policy making.

    PubMed

    Socolow, R H; Lam, S H

    2007-04-15

    We present a simple analysis of the global warming problem caused by the emissions of CO2 (a major greenhouse gas) into the atmosphere resulting from the burning of fossil fuels. We provide quantitative tools which enable policymakers and interested citizens to explore the following issues central to the global warming problem. (i) At what rate are we permitted to continue to emit CO2 after the global average atmospheric concentration has 'stabilized' at some chosen target level? The answer here provides the magnitude of the effort, measured by the necessary total reduction of today's global (annual) emissions rate to achieve stabilization. We shall see that stabilized emissions rates for all interesting stabilized concentration levels are much lower than the current emissions rate, but these small finite values are very important. (ii) Across how many years can we spread the total effort to reduce the annual CO2 emissions rate from its current high value to the above-mentioned low and stabilized target value? The answer here provides the time-scale of the total mitigation effort for any chosen atmospheric concentration target level. We confirm the common understanding that targets below a doubling of the pre-industrial concentration create great pressure to produce action immediately, while targets above double the pre-industrial level can tolerate longer periods of inaction. (iii) How much harder is the future mitigation effort, if we do not do our share of the job now? Is it a good idea to overshoot a stabilization target? The quantitative answers here provide the penalty of procrastination. For example, the mitigation task to avoid doubling the pre-industrial level is a problem that can be addressed gradually, over a period extending more than a century, if started immediately, but procrastination can turn the effort into a much more urgent task that extends over only a few decades. We also find that overshooting target levels is a bad idea. The quality of

  17. 40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials Global Warming Potentials Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global warming potential(100 yr.) Carbon dioxide 124-38-9 CO2 1 Methane 74-82-8 CH4 a...

  18. Thai Youths and Global Warming: Media Information, Awareness, and Lifestyle Activities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chokriensukchai, Kanchana; Tamang, Ritendra

    2010-01-01

    This study examines the exposure of Thai youths to media information on global warming, the relationship between exposure to global warming information and awareness of global warming, and the relationship between that awareness and lifestyle activities that contribute to global warming. A focus group of eight Thai youths provided information that…

  19. 40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials Global Warming Potentials Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global warming potential(100 yr.) Carbon dioxide 124-38-9 CO2 1 Methane 74-82-8 CH4...

  20. Global warming, convective threshold and false thermostats

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Ian N.; Pierrehumbert, Raymond T.; Huber, Matthew

    2009-11-01

    We demonstrate a theoretically expected behavior of the tropical sea surface temperature probability density function (PDF) in future and past (Eocene) greenhouse climate simulations. To first order this consists of a shift to warmer temperatures as climate warms, without change of shape of the PDF. The behavior is tied to a shift of the temperature for deep convection onset. Consequently, the threshold for appearance of high clouds and associated radiative forcing shifts along with temperature. An excess entropy coordinate provides a reference to which the onset of deep convection is invariant, and gives a compact description of SST changes and cloud feedbacks suitable for diagnostics and as a basis for simplified climate models. The results underscore that the typically skewed appearance of tropical SST histograms, with a sharp drop-off above some threshold value, should not be taken as evidence for tropical thermostats.

  1. Bog breath: Sleeper factor in global warming?

    SciTech Connect

    Benyus, J.M.

    1995-04-01

    This artical examines the emission of gases from northern peatlands as plants grow and decay and its implication in the global increase in greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide and methane. Bogs do extract carbon dioxide from the air, incorporating it into green plants which become buried for a long time. However, the cold, wet conditions are ideal for microbes which emit methane. Global climate change models indicate that Minnesota, for example will be 5 degrees warmer and somewhat wetter in future years. As a result bacterial metabolism and methane generation may increase considerably. This paper discusses current research and speculation and looks at possible solutions, both man-created and natural.

  2. Changes in Terrestrial Water Availability under Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lan, C. W.; Lo, M. H.; Chou, C.

    2014-12-01

    Under global warming, the annual range of precipitation is widening (Chou and Lan, 2012; Chou et al., 2013) and the frequency of precipitation extreme events also increases. Due to nonlinear responses of land hydrological process to precipitation extremes, runoff can increase exponentially, and on the hard hand, soil water storage may decline. In addition, IPCC AR5 indicates that soil moisture decreases in most areas under the global warming scenario. In this study, we use NCAR Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) to simulate changes in terrestrial available water (TAW, defined as the precipitation minus evaporation minus runoff, and then divided by the precipitation) under global warming. Preliminary results show that the TAW has clear seasonal variations. Compared to previous studies, which do not include the runoff in the calculations of the available water, our estimates on the TAW has much less available water in high latitudes through out the year, especially under extreme precipitation events.

  3. Myth or reality; Some data dispute global warming theory

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, R.W.

    1991-04-01

    Science in March 1990 published a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) analysis of data collected from 1979 through 1988 by the TIROS-N series of weather satellites. The data include the most precise global temperature measurements ever taken. The study found no evidence of global warming from the greenhouse effect during that period. If anything, the short-term trend was toward cooling, since the average of the first five years, 1979 to 1983, was warmer than the most recent five. The NASA findings can be added to a burgeoning body of scientific data seriously questioning the contention that Earth is threatened by global warming resulting from a greenhouse effect primarily instigated by man. Ironically, James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, has been the nation's most outspoken advocate of the thesis that, because concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and other greenhouse gases, such as methane, have risen by 30 percent in the last 100 years and are expected to rise another 40 percent by 2050, the planet eventually will warm by about 4 degrees Celsius. According to this hypothesis, the warming will cause major coastal flooding, inland droughts and sundry other catastrophes. But Reid Bryson, founder of the Institute for Environmental Studies at the University of Wisconsin, contends Hansen's thesis cannot be accepted, and Michael Schlesinger, professor of meteorology at the University of Illinois, asserts the chance that global warming has already been detected is pretty close to zero.

  4. Global warming: knowledge and views of Iranian students.

    PubMed

    Yazdanparast, Taraneh; Salehpour, Sousan; Masjedi, Mohammad Reza; Seyedmehdi, Seyed Mohammad; Boyes, Eddie; Stanisstreet, Martin; Attarchi, Mirsaeed

    2013-04-06

    Study of students' knowledge about global warming can help authorities to have better imagination of this critical environmental problem. This research examines high school students' ideas about greenhouse effect and the results may be useful for the respective authorities to improve cultural and educational aspects of next generation. In this cross-sectional study, a 42 question questionnaire with mix of open and closed questions was used to evaluate high school students' view about the mechanism, consequences, causes and cures of global warming. To assess students' knowledge, cognitive score was also calculated. 1035 students were randomly selected from 19 educational districts of Tehran. Sampling method was multi stage. Only 5.1% of the students could explain greenhouse effect correctly and completely. 88.8% and 71.2% respectively believed "if the greenhouse effect gets bigger the Earth will get hotter" and "incidence of more skin cancers is a consequence of global warming". 69.6% and 68.8% respectively thought "the greenhouse effect is made worse by too much carbon dioxide" and "presence of ozone holes is a cause of greenhouse effect". 68.4% believed "not using cars so much is a cure for global warming". While a student's 'cognitive score' could range from -36 to +36, Students' mean cognitive score was equal to +1.64. Mean cognitive score of male students and grade 2 & 3 students was respectively higher than female ones (P<0.01) and grade 1 students (P<0.001) but there was no statistically significant difference between students of different regions (P>0.05). In general, students' knowledge about global warming was not acceptable and there were some misconceptions in the students' mind, such as supposing ozone holes as a cause and more skin cancer as a consequence of global warming. The Findings of this survey indicate that, this important stratum of society have been received no sufficient and efficient education and sensitization on this matter.

  5. Global warming: knowledge and views of Iranian students.

    PubMed

    Yazdanparast, Taraneh; Salehpour, Sousan; Masjedi, Mohammad Reza; Seyedmehdi, Seyed Mohammad; Boyes, Eddie; Stanisstreet, Martin; Attarchi, Mirsaeed

    2013-01-01

    Study of students' knowledge about global warming can help authorities to have better imagination of this critical environmental problem. This research examines high school students' ideas about greenhouse effect and the results may be useful for the respective authorities to improve cultural and educational aspects of next generation. In this cross-sectional study, a 42 question questionnaire with mix of open and closed questions was used to evaluate high school students' view about the mechanism, consequences, causes and cures of global warming. To assess students' knowledge, cognitive score was also calculated. 1035 students were randomly selected from 19 educational districts of Tehran. Sampling method was multi stage. Only 5.1% of the students could explain greenhouse effect correctly and completely. 88.8% and 71.2% respectively believed "if the greenhouse effect gets bigger the Earth will get hotter" and "incidence of more skin cancers is a consequence of global warming". 69.6% and 68.8% respectively thought "the greenhouse effect is made worse by too much carbon dioxide" and "presence of ozone holes is a cause of greenhouse effect". 68.4% believed "not using cars so much is a cure for global warming". While a student's 'cognitive score' could range from -36 to +36, Students' mean cognitive score was equal to +1.64. Mean cognitive score of male students and grade 2 & 3 students was respectively higher than female ones (P<0.01) and grade 1 students (P<0.001) but there was no statistically significant difference between students of different regions (P>0.05). In general, students' knowledge about global warming was not acceptable and there were some misconceptions in the students' mind, such as supposing ozone holes as a cause and more skin cancer as a consequence of global warming. The Findings of this survey indicate that, this important stratum of society have been received no sufficient and efficient education and sensitization on this matter. PMID:23605603

  6. Responses of Antarctic Oscillation to global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, S.

    2015-12-01

    The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) is the major annular mode dominates the spatiotemporal variability of the atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. This study examined the sensitivity of AAO to future warming by analyzing the outputs of 34 state-of-the-art climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparion Project (CMIP5). The model simulations include the stabilized (RCP4.5) and business as usual (RCP8.5) scenarios as well as the idealized 1% per year increase in atmospheric CO2 to quadrupling (1pctCO2) and an instantaneous quadrupling of CO2 (abrupt4xCO2). We show that the CMIP5 models on average simulate increases in the AAO in every season by 2100 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. However, due to the impacts of ozone, aerosol and land use changes, the amplitudes of the projected changes in AAO to future climate scenarios are quit different on different seasons. After the impact of ozone, aerosol and land use changes were removed; it was found that the impact of greenhouse gases (GHGs) on AAO is similar on all seasons. The increases of AAO are accelerating following the increase of GHGs. Our results are also consistent with the simulations of 1pctCO2 and abrupt4xCO2.

  7. Global warming and end-use efficiency implications of replacing CFCs

    SciTech Connect

    Fairchild, P.D.; Fischer, S.K.

    1991-12-31

    The direct contribution of CFCs to calculated global warming has been recognized for some time. As a result of the international agreement to phase out CFCs due to stratospheric ozone and the ensuing search for suitable alternatives, there has recently been increased attention on the DIRECT global warming potential (GWP) of the fluorocarbon alternatives as greenhouse gases. However, to date there has been little focus on the INDIRECT global warming effect arising from end-use efficiency changes and associated CO{sub 2} emissions. A study being conducted at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) addresses this combined or total global warming impact of viable options to replace CFCs in their major energy-related applications. This paper reviews selected results for air-conditioning, refrigeration, and heat pump applications. The analysis indicates that the CFC user industries have made substantial progress in approaching near-equal energy efficiency with the HCFC/HFC alternative refrigerants. The findings also bring into question the relative importance of the DIRECT (chemical-related) effect in many applications. Replacing CFCs is an important step in reducing the total global warming impact, and at present the HCFC and HFCS appear to offer the best efficiency and lowest total impact of options available in the relatively short time period required for the transition away from CFCs.

  8. Global warming: is weight loss a solution?

    PubMed

    Gryka, A; Broom, J; Rolland, C

    2012-03-01

    The current climate change has been most likely caused by the increased greenhouse gas emissions. We have looked at the major greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO(2)), and estimated the reduction in the CO(2) emissions that would occur with the theoretical global weight loss. The calculations were based on our previous weight loss study, investigating the effects of a low-carbohydrate diet on body weight, body composition and resting metabolic rate of obese volunteers with type 2 diabetes. At 6 months, we observed decreases in weight, fat mass, fat free mass and CO(2) production. We estimated that a 10 kg weight loss of all obese and overweight people would result in a decrease of 49.560 Mt of CO(2) per year, which would equal to 0.2% of the CO(2) emitted globally in 2007. This reduction could help meet the CO(2) emission reduction targets and unquestionably would be of a great benefit to the global health.

  9. Climatic irregular staircases: generalized acceleration of global warming.

    PubMed

    De Saedeleer, Bernard

    2016-01-27

    Global warming rates mentioned in the literature are often restricted to a couple of arbitrary periods of time, or of isolated values of the starting year, lacking a global view. In this study, we perform on the contrary an exhaustive parametric analysis of the NASA GISS LOTI data, and also of the HadCRUT4 data. The starting year systematically varies between 1880 and 2002, and the averaging period from 5 to 30 yr - not only decades; the ending year also varies . In this way, we uncover a whole unexplored space of values for the global warming rate, and access the full picture. Additionally, stairstep averaging and linear least squares fitting to determine climatic trends have been sofar exclusive. We propose here an original hybrid method which combines both approaches in order to derive a new type of climatic trend. We find that there is an overall acceleration of the global warming whatever the value of the averaging period, and that 99.9% of the 3029 Earth's climatic irregular staircases are rising. Graphical evidence is also given that choosing an El Niño year as starting year gives lower global warming rates - except if there is a volcanic cooling in parallel. Our rates agree and generalize several results mentioned in the literature.

  10. Biotic prognostications: Global warming and biological diversity

    SciTech Connect

    Peters, R.L.; Lovejoy, T.E.

    1992-12-31

    This book focuses on the impacts of the greenhouse effect on biological diversity and on natural ecosystems. Included are chapters which include the following topics: government attitudes to climate change problems; general conclusions and deficiencies of general circulation models; impacts of past climate changes on global biota; effects of climate on vegetation, soils, wildlife diversity, animal physiology, ecology, behavior, migration, and parasites and diseases; arctic mariene ecosystems and coasta marine zones; tropical forests; arctic tundra; western North American forests, etc.; indirect linkages and snyergisms among climate change, biodiversity, geosphere, and anthropogenic stresses.

  11. Global warming: Perspectives from the Late Quaternary paleomammal record

    SciTech Connect

    Graham, R.W. )

    1993-03-01

    Global warming at the end of the Pleistocene caused significant environmental changes that directly and indirectly effected biotic communities. The biotic response to this global warming event can provide insights into the processes that might be anticipated for future climatic changes. The megafauna extinction may have been the most dramatic alteration of mammalian communities at the end of the Pleistocene. Late Quaternary warming also altered regional diversity patterns for some small mammal guilds without extinction. Reductions in body size for both small and large mammal species were also consequences of these environmental fluctuations. Geographic shifts in the distributions of individual mammal species resulted in changes in species composition of mammalian communities. The individualistic response of biota to environmental fluctuations define some boundary conditions for modeling communities. Understanding these boundary conditions is mandatory in planning for the preservation of biodiversity in the future. Finally, it is essential to determine how global warming will alter seasonal patterns because it is apparent from the paleobiological record that not all Quaternary warming events have been the same.

  12. More data needed to support or disprove global warming theory

    SciTech Connect

    1997-05-26

    Reports of global warming are prevalent in the popular press. With the exception of Scandinavia, no major energy tax laws have been passed to date. But environmental pressures may change this, and the change could have a profound effect on refiners. These are the views of Gerald T. Westbrook, of TSBV Consultants, Houston. Westbrook summarized recent global-warming research, and his position on the subject, at the National Petroleum Refiners Association annual meeting, held March 16--18, in San Antonio. The greenhouse effect is real, says Westbrook. It is important, however, to distinguish between the two major mechanisms of the greenhouse effect: natural warming and anthropogenic warming (changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases caused by man). Without greenhouse gases the earth`s equilibrium temperature would be {minus}18 C. The effect of the gases is to raise the equilibrium temperature to 15 C. In the early 1980s, computer models estimated global warming over the past 100 years to be as much as 2.3 C. By 1986, those estimates had been reduced to 1.0 C, and in 1988, a range of 0.63 {+-} 0.2 C was reported. In 1995, a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) cited a range of 0.3--0.6 C. Westbrook asserts that the earth`s motion anomalies--orbit eccentricity, axial tilt, and wobbles--lead to dramatic changes in insolation, and are the dominant force over the last 160,000 years.

  13. Simulation of early 20th century global warming

    PubMed

    Delworth; Knutson

    2000-03-24

    The observed global warming of the past century occurred primarily in two distinct 20-year periods, from 1925 to 1944 and from 1978 to the present. Although the latter warming is often attributed to a human-induced increase of greenhouse gases, causes of the earlier warming are less clear because this period precedes the time of strongest increases in human-induced greenhouse gas (radiative) forcing. Results from a set of six integrations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model suggest that the warming of the early 20th century could have resulted from a combination of human-induced radiative forcing and an unusually large realization of internal multidecadal variability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. This conclusion is dependent on the model's climate sensitivity, internal variability, and the specification of the time-varying human-induced radiative forcing.

  14. Using Updated Climate Accounting to Slow Global Warming Before 2035

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, T.

    2015-12-01

    The current and projected worsening of climate impacts make clear the urgency of limiting the global mean temperature to 2°C over preindustrial levels. But while mitigation policy today may slow global warming at the end of the century, it will not keep global warming within these limits. This failure arises in large part from the climate accounting system used to inform this policy, which does not factor in several scientific findings from the last two decades, including: The urgent need to slow global warming before 2035. This can postpone the time the +1.5°C limit is passed, and is the only way to avoid the most serious long-term climate disruptions. That while it may mitigate warming by the end of the century, reducing emissions of CO2 alone, according to UNEP/WMO[1], will do "little to mitigate warming over the next 20-30 years," and "may temporarily enhance near-term warming as sulfate [cooling] is reduced." That the only emissions reductions that can slow warming before 2035 are focused on short-lived climate pollutants. A small increase in current mitigation funding could fund these projects, the most promising of which target emissions in regional climate "hot spots" like the Arctic and India.[2] To ensure policies can effectively slow global warming before 2035, a new climate accounting system is needed. Such an updated system is being standardized in the USA,[3] and has been proposed for use in ISO standards. The key features of this updated system are: consideration of all climate pollutants and their multi-faceted climate effects; use of time horizons which prioritize mitigation of near-term warming; a consistent and accurate accounting for "biogenic" CO2; protocols ensuring that new scientific findings are incorporated; and a distinct accounting for emissions affecting regional "hot spots". This accounting system also considers environmental impacts outside of climate change, a feature necessary to identify "win-win" projects with climate benefits

  15. Global warming---The role for nuclear power

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, J.E. Jr.; Fulkerson, W. )

    1989-01-01

    Nuclear power is currently making an important contribution to our energy requirements. It provides 17% of the world's electricity today --- almost 20% in the US. Reducing the emissions of carbon dioxide over the next 30 to 50 years sufficiently to address the issue of global warming can only be accomplished by a combination of much improved energy efficiency, substantial growth in use of nuclear power, and substantial growth in use of renewable energy. This paper discusses new initiatives in the major nuclear technologies (LWR, HTGR, LMR) which are emerging from a fundamental reexamination of nuclear power in response to the challenges and opportunities in the 21st century. To fulfill its role, nuclear power must gain worldwide acceptance as a viable energy option. The use of modern technology and passive'' safety features in next-generation nuclear power plants offers the potential to simplify their design and operation, enhance their safety, and reduce the cost of electricity. With such improvements, we believe nuclear power can regain public confidence and make a significant contribution to our energy future. 24 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  16. Carbon Dioxide and Global Warming: A Failed Experiment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ribeiro, Carla

    2014-01-01

    Global warming is a current environmental issue that has been linked to an increase in anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. To raise awareness of the problem, various simple experiments have been proposed to demonstrate the effect of carbon dioxide on the planet's temperature. This article describes a similar experiment, which…

  17. Promotion of Scientific Literacy on Global Warming by Process Drama

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pongsophon, Pongprapan; Yutakom, Naruemon; Boujaoude, Saouma B.

    2010-01-01

    This project aims to investigate how process drama promotes scientific literacy in the context of global warming. Thirty-one lower (n = 24) and upper (n = 7) secondary students of one secondary school in Bangkok, Thailand participated in a seven-day workshop which process drama strategy was implemented. In the workshop, the students were actively…

  18. Seventh Grade Students' Conceptions of Global Warming and Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Choi, Soyoung; Charusombat, Umarporn

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate seventh grade students' conceptions of global warming and climate change. The study was descriptive in nature and involved the collection of qualitative data from 91 seventh grade students from three different schools in the Midwest, USA. An open response and draw and explain assessment instrument was…

  19. Global Warming: Discussion for EOS Science Writers Workshop

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E

    1999-01-01

    The existence of global warming this century is no longer an issue of scientific debate. But there are many important questions about the nature and causes of long-term climate change, th roles of nature and human-made climate forcings and unforced (chaotic) climate variability, the practical impacts of climate change, and what, if anything, should be done to reduce global warming, Global warming is not a uniform increase of temperature, but rather involves at complex geographically varying climate change. Understanding of global warming will require improved observations of climate change itself and the forcing factors that can lead to climate change. The NASA Terra mission and other NASA Earth Science missions will provide key measurement of climate change and climate forcings. The strategy to develop an understanding of the causes and predictability of long-term climate change must be based on combination of observations with models and analysis. The upcoming NASA missions will make important contributions to the required observations.

  20. Turkish Prospective Teachers' Understanding and Misunderstanding on Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ocal, A.; Kisoglu, M.; Alas, A.; Gurbuz, H.

    2011-01-01

    The key objective of this study is to determine the Turkish elementary prospective teachers' opinions on global warming. It is also aimed to establish prospective teachers' views about the environmental education in Turkish universities. A true-false type scale was administered to 564 prospective teachers from science education, social studies…

  1. A Noted Physicist's Contrarian View of Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goldstein, Evan R., Comp.

    2008-01-01

    According to Freeman Dyson, an emeritus professor of physics at the Institute for Advanced Study, the debate about global warming has become too narrow and opinions have become too entrenched. Relying on a computer model designed by the Yale University economist William D. Nordhaus, Dyson compared the effectiveness and economic feasibility of…

  2. Global Warming on the International Agenda. Teaching Strategy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keenan-Byrne, Patricia; Malkasian, Mark

    1997-01-01

    Presents a lesson plan that teaches students the links between industrialization and global warming, and analyzes the conflicting values and priorities involved in the debate between economic development and environmental concerns. Students role play delegates from countries attending an environmental conference. Handouts provide background…

  3. College Students' Misconceptions of Environmental Issues Related to Global Warming.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Groves, Fred H.; Pugh, Ava F.

    Students are currently exposed to world environmental problems--including global warming and the greenhouse effect--in science classes at various points during their K-12 and college experience. However, the amount and depth of explosure to these issues can be quite variable. Students are also exposed to sources of misinformation leading to…

  4. Global Warming: If You Can't Stand the Heat

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baird, Stephen L.

    2005-01-01

    Global warming is the progressive, gradual rise of the earth's average surface temperature, thought to be caused in part by increased concentrations of "greenhouse" gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. According to the National Academy of Sciences, the Earth's temperature has risen by about one degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated…

  5. Catholic Social Teaching: Addressing Globalization in Catholic Business Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ball, James B.; Martinez, Zaida; Toyne, Brian

    2009-01-01

    Although business schools are increasingly aware of the importance of globalization in educating future business leaders, their business programs have addressed globalization from a limited perspective that fails to provide students with a broader understanding of its impact on societies and its moral consequences. The conventional approach to the…

  6. Separating Contributions from Anthropogenic Warming and from Natural Oscillations to Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Konrad Stips, Adolf; Macias, Diego; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa

    2014-05-01

    During the past five decades, global air temperatures have been warming at a rather high rate (IPCC-2013) resulting in scientific and social concern. This warming trend is observed in field data sampling and model simulations and affects both air temperatures over land and over the ocean. However, the warming rate changes with time and this has led to question the causes underlying the observed trends. Here, we analyze recent measured and modeled data on global mean surface air temperature anomalies (GMTA) covering the last 160 years using spectral techniques. The spectral analysis of the measured data does show a strong secular trend (ST) and a clear multidecadal sinusoidal oscillation (MDV) that resembles the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The observed acceleration of the warming during the period from 1970 to 2000 therefore appears to be caused by a superimposition of anthropogenic-induced warming (~60%) with the positive phase of a multidecadal oscillation (~40%), while the recent slowdown (hiatus) of this tendency is likely due to a shift in the MDV phase. It has been proposed that this change in the MDV phase could mask the effect of global warming in the forthcoming decades and our analysis indicates that this is quite likely, the current hiatus being already a manifestation of this phenomenon. Most current generation global circulation models (CMIP5) do not reproduce this MDV and are missing the actual temperature hiatus. Therefore, it is less likely that such models could correctly forecast the temperature evolution during the coming decades. We propose here to use the climate dynamics that is inherent in the GMTA data to forecast temperatures until 2100. These forecasts, based on the analyzed secular trend and the multidecadal oscillations are indeed capable of reproducing the actual hiatus and generally result, in comparison to CMIP5 forecasts, in much lower temperature increases for 2100 of only about 1oC. Global mean air temperatures could be

  7. Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection

    PubMed Central

    Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

    2016-01-01

    Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection. PMID:26838053

  8. Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection.

    PubMed

    Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

    2016-02-03

    Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection.

  9. Simulation of future global warming scenarios in rice paddies with an open-field warming facility

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    To simulate expected future global warming, hexagonal arrays of infrared heaters have previously been used to warm open-field canopies of upland crops such as wheat. Through the use of concrete-anchored posts, improved software, overhead wires, extensive grounding, and monitoring with a thermal camera, the technology was safely and reliably extended to paddy rice fields. The system maintained canopy temperature increases within 0.5°C of daytime and nighttime set-point differences of 1.3 and 2.7°C 67% of the time. PMID:22145582

  10. I'll Save the World from Global Warming--Tomorrow: Using Procrastination Management to Combat Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Malott, Richard W.

    2010-01-01

    In the provocatively titled "I'll Save the World from Global Warming--Tomorrow," Dick Malott says that although we all want to do the right thing to help the environment, whether it's buying and installing compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs) or replacing an energy-guzzling appliance with a more efficient one, we put it off because there's no…

  11. Toxicological and epidemiological aspects of global warming on human health

    SciTech Connect

    Ando, M.; Yamamoto, S.; Wakamatsu, K.; Kawahara, I.; Asanuma, S.

    1996-12-31

    Since human activities are responsible for anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions, climate models project an increase in the global surface temperature of 0.9 C to 4.0 C by 2100. For human health, it is projected that global warming may have a critical effect on the increased periods of severe heat stress in summer throughout the world. Global warming may have a critical issue on the increased periods of severe heat stress that have a potential impact on peroxidative damage in humans and animals. Lipid peroxidative damage is markedly related to GSH peroxidase activities, therefore the study was carried out to analyze the relationship between biochemical adaptability and the lipid peroxidative damage especially intracellular structure, such as mitochondria and endoplasmic reticulum depending on the exposure time of heat stress.

  12. Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch.

    PubMed

    Cheung, William W L; Watson, Reg; Pauly, Daniel

    2013-05-16

    Marine fishes and invertebrates respond to ocean warming through distribution shifts, generally to higher latitudes and deeper waters. Consequently, fisheries should be affected by 'tropicalization' of catch (increasing dominance of warm-water species). However, a signature of such climate-change effects on global fisheries catch has so far not been detected. Here we report such an index, the mean temperature of the catch (MTC), that is calculated from the average inferred temperature preference of exploited species weighted by their annual catch. Our results show that, after accounting for the effects of fishing and large-scale oceanographic variability, global MTC increased at a rate of 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade between 1970 and 2006, and non-tropical MTC increased at a rate of 0.23 degrees Celsius per decade. In tropical areas, MTC increased initially because of the reduction in the proportion of subtropical species catches, but subsequently stabilized as scope for further tropicalization of communities became limited. Changes in MTC in 52 large marine ecosystems, covering the majority of the world's coastal and shelf areas, are significantly and positively related to regional changes in sea surface temperature. This study shows that ocean warming has already affected global fisheries in the past four decades, highlighting the immediate need to develop adaptation plans to minimize the effect of such warming on the economy and food security of coastal communities, particularly in tropical regions.

  13. Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch.

    PubMed

    Cheung, William W L; Watson, Reg; Pauly, Daniel

    2013-05-16

    Marine fishes and invertebrates respond to ocean warming through distribution shifts, generally to higher latitudes and deeper waters. Consequently, fisheries should be affected by 'tropicalization' of catch (increasing dominance of warm-water species). However, a signature of such climate-change effects on global fisheries catch has so far not been detected. Here we report such an index, the mean temperature of the catch (MTC), that is calculated from the average inferred temperature preference of exploited species weighted by their annual catch. Our results show that, after accounting for the effects of fishing and large-scale oceanographic variability, global MTC increased at a rate of 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade between 1970 and 2006, and non-tropical MTC increased at a rate of 0.23 degrees Celsius per decade. In tropical areas, MTC increased initially because of the reduction in the proportion of subtropical species catches, but subsequently stabilized as scope for further tropicalization of communities became limited. Changes in MTC in 52 large marine ecosystems, covering the majority of the world's coastal and shelf areas, are significantly and positively related to regional changes in sea surface temperature. This study shows that ocean warming has already affected global fisheries in the past four decades, highlighting the immediate need to develop adaptation plans to minimize the effect of such warming on the economy and food security of coastal communities, particularly in tropical regions. PMID:23676754

  14. Quantifying global warming from the retreat of glaciers

    SciTech Connect

    Oerlemans, J. )

    1994-04-08

    Records of glacier fluctuations compiled by the World Glacier Monitoring Service can be used to derive an independent estimate of global warming during the last 100 years. Records of different glaciers are made comparable by a two-step scaling procedure; one allowing for differences in glacier geometry, the other for differences in climate sensitivity. The retreat of glaciers during the last 100 years appears to be coherent over the globe. On the basis of modeling of the climate sensitivity of glaciers, the observed glacier retreat can be explained by a linear warming trend of 0.66 kelvin per century.

  15. Global warming solutions and the path to recovery.

    PubMed

    Foster, David

    2009-01-01

    We will look back on the last year as a period when extraordinary economic events marked the unraveling of one economic model and placed in front of the global community a set of choices. Either we restructure the architecture of the global economy and replace it with something else, or we face a future of devastating economic consequences. The Blue Green Alliance has become one of America's leading advocates for global warming solutions and we believe that the benefits and economic opportunities will far outweigh the costs. We have popularized the terms "green economy" and "green jobs" and we believe that every job in America should turn into a green job.

  16. Recent decrease in typhoon destructive potential and global warming implications

    PubMed Central

    Lin, I-I; Chan, Johnny C.L.

    2015-01-01

    Typhoons (tropical cyclones) severely impact the half-billion population of the Asian Pacific. Intriguingly, during the recent decade, typhoon destructive potential (Power Dissipation Index, PDI) has decreased considerably (by ∼35%). This decrease, paradoxically, has occurred despite the increase in typhoon intensity and ocean warming. Using the method proposed by Emanuel (in 2007), we show that the stronger negative contributions from typhoon frequency and duration, decrease to cancel the positive contribution from the increasing intensity, controlling the PDI. Examining the typhoons' environmental conditions, we find that although the ocean condition became more favourable (warming) in the recent decade, the atmospheric condition ‘worsened' at the same time. The ‘worsened' atmospheric condition appears to effectively overpower the ‘better' ocean conditions to suppress PDI. This stronger negative contribution from reduced typhoon frequency over the increased intensity is also present under the global warming scenario, based on analysis of the simulated typhoon data from high-resolution modelling. PMID:25990561

  17. Forestry and global warming: the physical and policy linkages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trexler, M. C.

    1992-03-01

    The potential for biotically mitigating global warming is receiving a great deal of policy and technical attention around the world. Elements of the political community are drawn to the notion that land-use patterns can be modified more easily than energy consumption patterns, and some modelers suggest that the potential for storing carbon in terrestrial ecosystems is very large. Most work to date, however, uses only physical criteria in estimating how much land might be available for reforestation. Accounting for social and economic constraints is much more difficult, resulting in daunting uncertainty about what could actually be accomplished. Furthermore, our relative ignorance of the functioning of the global carbon cycle makes attempting to manipulate it for human purposes questionable at best. Nevertheless, there are many reasons besides global warming to pursue a radical restructuring of land-use patterns around the world. Such a restructuring should be undertaken in conjunction with many other measures to slow global warming, most immediately in the energy sector.

  18. Global warming induced hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salack, Seyni; Klein, Cornelia; Giannini, Alessandra; Sarr, Benoit; Worou, Omonlola N.; Belko, Nouhoun; Bliefernicht, Jan; Kunstman, Harald

    2016-10-01

    The small rainfall recovery observed over the Sahel, concomitant with a regional climate warming, conceals some drought features that exacerbate food security. The new rainfall features include false start and early cessation of rainy seasons, increased frequency of intense daily rainfall, increasing number of hot nights and warm days and a decreasing trend in diurnal temperature range. Here, we explain these mixed dry/wet seasonal rainfall features which are called hybrid rainy seasons by delving into observed data consensus on the reduction in rainfall amount, its spatial coverage, timing and erratic distribution of events, and other atmospheric variables crucial in agro-climatic monitoring and seasonal forecasting. Further composite investigations of seasonal droughts, oceans warming and the regional atmospheric circulation nexus reveal that the low-to-mid-level atmospheric winds pattern, often stationary relative to either strong or neutral El-Niño-Southern-Oscillations drought patterns, associates to basin warmings in the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea to trigger hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel. More challenging to rain-fed farming systems, our results suggest that these new rainfall conditions will most likely be sustained by global warming, reshaping thereby our understanding of food insecurity in this region.

  19. Global warming triggers the loss of a key Arctic refugium.

    PubMed

    Rühland, K M; Paterson, A M; Keller, W; Michelutti, N; Smol, J P

    2013-12-01

    We document the rapid transformation of one of the Earth's last remaining Arctic refugia, a change that is being driven by global warming. In stark contrast to the amplified warming observed throughout much of the Arctic, the Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) of subarctic Canada has maintained cool temperatures, largely due to the counteracting effects of persistent sea ice. However, since the mid-1990s, climate of the HBL has passed a tipping point, the pace and magnitude of which is exceptional even by Arctic standards, exceeding the range of regional long-term variability. Using high-resolution, palaeolimnological records of algal remains in dated lake sediment cores, we report that, within this short period of intense warming, striking biological changes have occurred in the region's freshwater ecosystems. The delayed and intense warming in this remote region provides a natural observatory for testing ecosystem resilience under a rapidly changing climate, in the absence of direct anthropogenic influences. The environmental repercussions of this climate change are of global significance, influencing the huge store of carbon in the region's extensive peatlands, the world's southern-most polar bear population that depends upon Hudson Bay sea ice and permafrost for survival, and native communities who rely on this landscape for sustenance.

  20. Pacific Sea Level Rise Pattern and Global Warming Hiatus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peyser, C.; Yin, J.; Landerer, F. W.

    2015-12-01

    We investigate the linkage between two notable features of climate change and sea level rise during the past decades: a slowdown in global warming (hiatus) and an east-west seesaw pattern of SLR in the Pacific. During the hiatus, the subsurface layer of the Pacific shows significant increase in ocean heat content along with a strong east-west gradient that is reflected in the seesaw pattern of Pacific SLR through the thermosteric effect. Control simulations from 38 climate models indicate that during periods of negative trend in global mean surface temperature (analogous to hiatus decades in a warming world), dynamic sea level increases in the western Pacific and decreases in the eastern Pacific. The opposite occurs during periods of positive temperature trends. Using a regression analysis of the model simulations along with sea-level measurements from satellite altimetry, we find that the recent change in the Pacific Ocean heat storage has suppressed potential surface warming since 1998. Our results suggest that a flip of the Pacific SLR seesaw would imply a resumption of surface warming and SLR acceleration along the U.S. West Coast.

  1. Global warming triggers the loss of a key Arctic refugium

    PubMed Central

    Rühland, K. M.; Paterson, A. M.; Keller, W.; Michelutti, N.; Smol, J. P.

    2013-01-01

    We document the rapid transformation of one of the Earth's last remaining Arctic refugia, a change that is being driven by global warming. In stark contrast to the amplified warming observed throughout much of the Arctic, the Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) of subarctic Canada has maintained cool temperatures, largely due to the counteracting effects of persistent sea ice. However, since the mid-1990s, climate of the HBL has passed a tipping point, the pace and magnitude of which is exceptional even by Arctic standards, exceeding the range of regional long-term variability. Using high-resolution, palaeolimnological records of algal remains in dated lake sediment cores, we report that, within this short period of intense warming, striking biological changes have occurred in the region's freshwater ecosystems. The delayed and intense warming in this remote region provides a natural observatory for testing ecosystem resilience under a rapidly changing climate, in the absence of direct anthropogenic influences. The environmental repercussions of this climate change are of global significance, influencing the huge store of carbon in the region's extensive peatlands, the world's southern-most polar bear population that depends upon Hudson Bay sea ice and permafrost for survival, and native communities who rely on this landscape for sustenance. PMID:24107529

  2. Fast-slow climate dynamics and peak global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seshadri, Ashwin K.

    2016-06-01

    The dynamics of a linear two-box energy balance climate model is analyzed as a fast-slow system, where the atmosphere, land, and near-surface ocean taken together respond within few years to external forcing whereas the deep-ocean responds much more slowly. Solutions to this system are approximated by estimating the system's time-constants using a first-order expansion of the system's eigenvalue problem in a perturbation parameter, which is the ratio of heat capacities of upper and lower boxes. The solution naturally admits an interpretation in terms of a fast response that depends approximately on radiative forcing and a slow response depending on integrals of radiative forcing with respect to time. The slow response is inversely proportional to the "damping-timescale", the timescale with which deep-ocean warming influences global warming. Applications of approximate solutions are discussed: conditions for a warming peak, effects of an individual pulse emission of carbon dioxide (CO2 ), and metrics for estimating and comparing contributions of different climate forcers to maximum global warming.

  3. CFC Destruction of Ozone - Major Cause of Recent Global Warming!

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ashworth, R. A.

    2008-12-01

    There has been a lot of discussion about global warming. Some say anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions caused the earth to warm. Others say there is no abnormality at all, that it is just natural warming. As you will see from the data presented and analyzed, a greater than normal warming did occur in recent times but no measurements confirm an increase in CO2, whether anthropogenic or natural, had any effect on global temperatures. There is however, strong evidence that anthropogenic emissions of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were the major cause of the recent abnormal warming. CFCs have created both unnatural atmospheric cooling and warming based on these facts: CFCs have destroyed ozone in the lower stratosphere/ upper troposphere causing these zones in the atmosphere to cool 1.37°C from 1966 to 1998. This time span was selected to eliminate the effect of the natural solar irradiance (cooling-warming) cycle effect on the earth's temperature. The loss of ozone allowed more UV light to pass through the stratosphere at a sufficient rate to warm the lower troposphere plus 8-3/4" of the earth by 0.48°C (1966 to 1998). Mass and energy balances show that the energy that was absorbed in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere hit the lower troposphere/earth at a sustainable level of 1.69 × 10 18 Btu more in 1998 than it did in 1966. Greater ozone depletion in the Polar Regions has caused these areas to warm some two and one-half (2 1/2) times that of the average earth temperature -1.2°C versus 0.48°C. This has caused permafrost to melt, which is releasing copious quantities of methane, estimated at 100 times that of manmade CO2 release, to the atmosphere. Methane in the atmosphere slowly converts to CO2 and water vapor and its release has contributed to higher CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. There is a temperature anomaly in Antarctica. The Signey Island landmass further north, warmed like the rest of the Polar Regions; but south at Vostok, there has

  4. How probable was the 20th century global warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Markonis, Yannis

    2016-04-01

    The increase of global mean temperature during the 20th century, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is very plausible due to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, climate model projections suggest that the global mean temperature will further rise during the 21st century. While the vast majority of scientists have endorsed IPCC's conclusions, not a few individual scientists, have expressed a disagreement regarding the validity of climate model projections. In this study, the answer to a fundamental question is sought. That is, how probable was the global warming of the 20th century considering only recorded and reconstructed global mean temperatures values, and assuming that the global mean temperature is a stationary stochastic process. In order to answer this question, a stationary stochastic model is set that incorporates (a) the observed autocorrelation structure of the global mean temperature, (b) past observations of global mean temperature and (c) global, regional and site-specific reconstructions of global mean temperature changes during the last two millennia. Based on an intense Monte Carlo simulation, the probability of a global mean temperature trend with equal or greater slope than the observed one in the 20th century is presented.

  5. Remote sensing, global warming, and vector-borne disease

    SciTech Connect

    Wood, B.; Beck, L.; Dister, S.; Lobitz, B.

    1997-12-31

    The relationship between climate change and the pattern of vector-borne disease can be viewed at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. At one extreme are changes such as global warming, which are continental in scale and occur over periods of years, decades, or longer. At the opposite extreme are changes associated with severe weather events, which can occur at local and regional scales over periods of days, weeks, or months. Key ecological factors affecting the distribution of vector-borne diseases include temperature, precipitation, and habitat availability, and their impact on vectors, pathogens, reservoirs, and hosts. Global warming can potentially alter these factors, thereby affecting the spatial and temporal patterns of disease.

  6. Genetic shift in photoperiodic response correlated with global warming.

    PubMed

    Bradshaw, W E; Holzapfel, C M

    2001-12-01

    To date, all altered patterns of seasonal interactions observed in insects, birds, amphibians, and plants associated with global warming during the latter half of the 20th century are explicable as variable expressions of plastic phenotypes. Over the last 30 years, the genetically controlled photoperiodic response of the pitcher-plant mosquito, Wyeomyia smithii, has shifted toward shorter, more southern daylengths as growing seasons have become longer. This shift is detectable over a time interval as short as 5 years. Faster evolutionary response has occurred in northern populations where selection is stronger and genetic variation is greater than in southern populations. W. smithii represents an example of actual genetic differentiation of a seasonality trait that is consistent with an adaptive evolutionary response to recent global warming.

  7. The role of clouds and oceans in global greenhouse warming

    SciTech Connect

    Hoffert, M.I.

    1992-12-01

    During the past three years we have conducted several studies using models and a combination of satellite data, in situ meteorological and oceanic data, and paleoclimate reconstructions, under the DoE program, Quantifying the Link Between Change in Radiative Balance and Atmospheric Temperature''. Our goals were to investigate effects of global cloudiness variations on global climate and their implications for cloud feedback and continue development and application of NYU transient climate/ocean models, with emphasis on coupled effects of greenhouse warming and feedbacks by both the clouds and oceans. Our original research plan emphasized the use of cloud, surface temperature and ocean data sets interpreted by focused climate/ocean models to develop a cloud radiative forcing scenario for the past 100 years and to assess the transient climate response; to narrow key uncertainties in the system; and to identify those aspects of the climate system most likely to be affected by greenhouse warming over short, medium and long time scales.

  8. Management of Philippine tropical forests: Implications to global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Lasco, R.D.

    1997-12-31

    The first part of the paper presents the massive changes in tropical land management in the Philippines as a result of a {open_quotes}paradigm shift{close_quotes} in forestry. The second part of the paper analyzes the impacts of the above management strategies on global warming, in general, preserved forests are neither sinks not sources of greenhouse gasses (GHG). Reforestation activities are primarily net sinks of carbon specially the use of fast growing reforestation species. Estimates are given for the carbon-sequestering ability of some commonly used species. The last part of the paper policy recommendations and possible courses of action by the government to maximize the role of forest lands in the mitigation of global warming. Private sector initiatives are also explored.

  9. Global variations of zonal mean ozone during stratospheric warming events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Randel, William J.

    1993-01-01

    Eight years of Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) ozone data are examined to study zonal mean variations associated with stratospheric planetary wave (warming) events. These fluctuations are found to be nearly global in extent, with relatively large variations in the tropics, and coherent signatures reaching up to 50 deg in the opposite (summer) hemisphere. These ozone variations are a manifestation of the global circulation cells associated with stratospheric warming events; the ozone responds dynamically in the lower stratosphere to transport, and photochemically in the upper stratosphere to the circulation-induced temperature changes. The observed ozone variations in the tropics are of particular interest because transport is dominated by zonal-mean vertical motions (eddy flux divergences and mean meridional transports are negligible), and hence, substantial simplifications to the governing equations occur. The response of the atmosphere to these impulsive circulation changes provides a situation for robust estimates of the ozone-temperature sensitivity in the upper stratosphere.

  10. GIS applications to evaluate public health effects of global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Regens, J.L.; Hodges, D.G.

    1996-12-31

    Modeling projections of future climatic conditions suggest changes in temperature and precipitation patterns that might induce direct adverse effects on human health by altering the extent and severity of infectious and vector-borne diseases. The incidence of mosquito-borne diseases, for example, could increase substantially in areas where temperature and relative humidity rise. The application of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) offers new methodologies to evaluate the impact of global warming on changes in the incidence of infectious and vector-borne diseases. This research illustrates the potential analytical and communication uses of GIS for monitoring historical patterns of climate and human health variables and for projecting changes in these health variables with global warming.

  11. Health effects of global warming: Problems in assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Longstreth, J.

    1993-06-01

    Global warming is likely to result in a variety of environmental effects ranging from impacts on species diversity, changes in population size in flora and fauna, increases in sea level and possible impacts on the primary productivity of the sea. Potential impacts on human health and welfare have included possible increases in heat related mortality, changes in the distribution of disease vectors, and possible impacts on respiratory diseases including hayfever and asthma. Most of the focus thus far is on effects which are directly related to increases in temperature, e.g., heat stress or perhaps one step removed, e.g., changes in vector distribution. Some of the more severe impacts are likely to be much less direct, e.g., increases in migration due to agricultural failure following prolonged droughts. This paper discusses two possible approaches to the study of these less-direct impacts of global warming and presents information from on-going research using each of these approaches.

  12. Regional growth management policies: Toward reducing global warming at state and local levels

    SciTech Connect

    Purdie, J.

    1995-09-01

    State and local governments in the United States are accepting mandates to coordinate legislated land use and growth management planning with vigorous environmental protection and resource conservation. These mandates, implemented or planned in states with populations totaling over 100 million, will directly impact growth patterns and ultimately affect the level of atmospheric gases and particulates generated within their borders. This paper addresses the issues of growth management and land use planning at the local, state and regional levels and identifies areas impacting global warming. A review of existing systems will be presented, and recommendations will be made to improve monitoring of growth management mechanisms and organizational structures with the goal of global atmospheric improvement. The issues discussed include urban sprawl, transportation, and growth patterns as managed by policies also designed to protect environments and provide for sustainable growth. Areas for improved coordination between jurisdictions to ease global warming will also be examined.

  13. The relationship between personal experience and belief in the reality of global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Myers, Teresa A.; Maibach, Edward W.; Roser-Renouf, Connie; Akerlof, Karen; Leiserowitz, Anthony A.

    2013-04-01

    In this paper, we address the chicken-or-egg question posed by two alternative explanations for the relationship between perceived personal experience of global warming and belief certainty that global warming is happening: Do observable climate impacts create opportunities for people to become more certain of the reality of global warming, or does prior belief certainty shape people's perceptions of impacts through a process of motivated reasoning? We use data from a nationally representative sample of Americans surveyed first in 2008 and again in 2011; these longitudinal data allow us to evaluate the causal relationships between belief certainty and perceived experience, assessing the impact of each on the other over time. Among the full survey sample, we found that both processes occurred: `experiential learning', where perceived personal experience of global warming led to increased belief certainty, and `motivated reasoning', where high belief certainty influenced perceptions of personal experience. We then tested and confirmed the hypothesis that motivated reasoning occurs primarily among people who are already highly engaged in the issue whereas experiential learning occurs primarily among people who are less engaged in the issue, which is particularly important given that approximately 75% of American adults currently have low levels of engagement.

  14. Enhanced deep ocean ventilation and oxygenation with global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Froelicher, T. L.; Jaccard, S.; Dunne, J. P.; Paynter, D.; Gruber, N.

    2014-12-01

    Twenty-first century coupled climate model simulations, observations from the recent past, and theoretical arguments suggest a consistent trend towards warmer ocean temperatures and fresher polar surface oceans in response to increased radiative forcing resulting in increased upper ocean stratification and reduced ventilation and oxygenation of the deep ocean. Paleo-proxy records of the warming at the end of the last ice age, however, suggests a different outcome, namely a better ventilated and oxygenated deep ocean with global warming. Here we use a four thousand year global warming simulation from a comprehensive Earth System Model (GFDL ESM2M) to show that this conundrum is a consequence of different rates of warming and that the deep ocean is actually better ventilated and oxygenated in a future warmer equilibrated climate consistent with paleo-proxy records. The enhanced deep ocean ventilation in the Southern Ocean occurs in spite of increased positive surface buoyancy fluxes and a constancy of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds - circumstances that would otherwise be expected to lead to a reduction in deep ocean ventilation. This ventilation recovery occurs through a global scale interaction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation undergoing a multi-centennial recovery after an initial century of transient decrease and transports salinity-rich waters inform the subtropical surface ocean to the Southern Ocean interior on multi-century timescales. The subsequent upwelling of salinity-rich waters in the Southern Ocean strips away the freshwater cap that maintains vertical stability and increases open ocean convection and the formation of Antarctic Bottom Waters. As a result, the global ocean oxygen content and the nutrient supply from the deep ocean to the surface are higher in a warmer ocean. The implications for past and future changes in ocean heat and carbon storage will be discussed.

  15. Global warming, sea-level rise, and coastal marsh survival

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cahoon, Donald R.

    1997-01-01

    Coastal wetlands are among the most productive ecosystems in the world. These wetlands at the land-ocean margin provide many direct benefits to humans, including habitat for commercially important fisheries and wildlife; storm protection; improved water quality through sediment, nutrient, and pollution removal; recreation; and aesthetic values. These valuable ecosystems will be highly vulnerable to the effects of the rapid rise in sea level predicted to occur during the next century as a result of global warming.

  16. Global warming and Australian public health: reasons to be concerned.

    PubMed

    Saniotis, Arthur; Bi, Peng

    2009-11-01

    Studies in global warming and climate change indicate that human populations will be deleteriously affected in the future. Studies forecast that Australia will experience increasing heat waves and droughts. Heat stress caused by frequent heat waves will have a marked effect on older Australians due to physiological and pharmacological factors. In this paper we present an overview of some of the foreseeable issues which older Australians will face from a public health perspective.

  17. When could global warming reach 4°C?

    PubMed

    Betts, Richard A; Collins, Matthew; Hemming, Deborah L; Jones, Chris D; Lowe, Jason A; Sanderson, Michael G

    2011-01-13

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) assessed a range of scenarios of future greenhouse-gas emissions without policies to specifically reduce emissions, and concluded that these would lead to an increase in global mean temperatures of between 1.6°C and 6.9°C by the end of the twenty-first century, relative to pre-industrial. While much political attention is focused on the potential for global warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, the AR4 projections clearly suggest that much greater levels of warming are possible by the end of the twenty-first century in the absence of mitigation. The centre of the range of AR4-projected global warming was approximately 4°C. The higher end of the projected warming was associated with the higher emissions scenarios and models, which included stronger carbon-cycle feedbacks. The highest emissions scenario considered in the AR4 (scenario A1FI) was not examined with complex general circulation models (GCMs) in the AR4, and similarly the uncertainties in climate-carbon-cycle feedbacks were not included in the main set of GCMs. Consequently, the projections of warming for A1FI and/or with different strengths of carbon-cycle feedbacks are often not included in a wider discussion of the AR4 conclusions. While it is still too early to say whether any particular scenario is being tracked by current emissions, A1FI is considered to be as plausible as other non-mitigation scenarios and cannot be ruled out. (A1FI is a part of the A1 family of scenarios, with 'FI' standing for 'fossil intensive'. This is sometimes erroneously written as A1F1, with number 1 instead of letter I.) This paper presents simulations of climate change with an ensemble of GCMs driven by the A1FI scenario, and also assesses the implications of carbon-cycle feedbacks for the climate-change projections. Using these GCM projections along with simple climate-model projections, including uncertainties in carbon

  18. Direct health effects of global warming in Japan and China

    SciTech Connect

    Ando, M.; Yamamoto, S.; Tamura, K.

    1997-12-31

    Combustion of fossil fuels and industrial and agricultural activities are resulting in greater emissions of some greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere, therefore contributing to global warming. Using general circulation models, it is estimated that surface temperatures in temperate regions will rise 1 to 3 degrees C during the next 100 years. Because global warming may increase the frequency and length of high temperatures during hot summer months, various health risks caused by heat stress have been studied. According to our epidemiological survey, the incidence of heat-related illness was significantly correlated to hot environments in Tokyo, Japan and in Nanjing and Wuhan, China. The epidemiological results also showed that the incidence of heat-related morbidity and mortality in the elderly increased very rapidly in summer. The regression analysis on these data showed that the number of heat stroke patients increased exponentially when the mean daily temperature and maximum daily temperature exceeded 27C and 32C in Tokyo and 31C and 36C in Wuhan and Nanjing, respectively. Since the incidence of heat-related morbidity and mortality has been shown to increase as a result of exposure to long periods of hot summer temperatures, it is important to determine to what extent the incidence of heat stress-related morbidity and mortality will be affected as a result of global warming.

  19. Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

    2000-01-01

    A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CFCs, CH4 and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, whose positive and negative climate forcings are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change of climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs In the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific longterm global monitoring of aerosol properties.

  20. The impact of global warming on health and mortality.

    PubMed

    Keatinge, W R; Donaldson, G C

    2004-11-01

    Initial concern about the possible effects of global warming on infections has declined with the realization that the spread of tropical diseases is likely to be limited and controllable. However, the direct effects of heat already cause substantial numbers of deaths among vulnerable people in the summer. Action to prevent these deaths from rising is the most obvious medical challenge presented by a global rise in temperature. Strategies to prevent such deaths are in place to some extent, and they differ between the United States and Europe. Air conditioning has reduced them in the United States, and older technologies such as fans, shade, and buildings designed to keep cool on hot days have generally done so in Europe. Since the energy requirements of air conditioning accelerate global warming, a combination of the older methods, backed up by use of air conditioning when necessary, can provide the ideal solution. Despite the availability of these technologies, occasional record high temperatures still cause sharp rises in heat-related deaths as the climate warms. The most important single piece of advice at the time a heat wave strikes is that people having dangerous heat stress need immediate cooling, eg, by a cool bath. Such action at home can be more effective than transporting the patient to hospital. Meanwhile, it must not be forgotten that cold weather in winter causes-many more deaths than heat in summer, even in most subtropical regions, and measures to control cold-related deaths need to continue.

  1. How much more global warming and sea level rise?

    PubMed

    Meehl, Gerald A; Washington, Warren M; Collins, William D; Arblaster, Julie M; Hu, Aixue; Buja, Lawrence E; Strand, Warren G; Teng, Haiyan

    2005-03-18

    Two global coupled climate models show that even if the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere had been stabilized in the year 2000, we are already committed to further global warming of about another half degree and an additional 320% sea level rise caused by thermal expansion by the end of the 21st century. Projected weakening of the meridional overturning circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean does not lead to a net cooling in Europe. At any given point in time, even if concentrations are stabilized, there is a commitment to future climate changes that will be greater than those we have already observed. PMID:15774757

  2. How much more global warming and sea level rise?

    PubMed

    Meehl, Gerald A; Washington, Warren M; Collins, William D; Arblaster, Julie M; Hu, Aixue; Buja, Lawrence E; Strand, Warren G; Teng, Haiyan

    2005-03-18

    Two global coupled climate models show that even if the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere had been stabilized in the year 2000, we are already committed to further global warming of about another half degree and an additional 320% sea level rise caused by thermal expansion by the end of the 21st century. Projected weakening of the meridional overturning circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean does not lead to a net cooling in Europe. At any given point in time, even if concentrations are stabilized, there is a commitment to future climate changes that will be greater than those we have already observed.

  3. Early global warming in the period 1850 to 1920

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf; Brandsma, Theo; Auchmann, Renate; Esper, Jan; Haustein, Karsten

    2016-04-01

    The current global temperature datasets show no warming in the land surface temperature and the sea surface temperature for the period between 1850 and 1920. However, several lines of evidence suggest that the Earth's surface was warming during this period. Every line of evidence by itself is currently not compelling, but the consilience of evidence at least makes a good case for further research. This period is characterized by the introduction of Stevenson screens, which reduce radiation errors more than the monitoring methods used before. As a consequence, Stevenson screens typically observe cooler temperatures than earlier observations. Recent analyses of parallel measurements suggest that this cooling bias is larger than previously thought. Physical reasoning suggests this bias to be largest in sub-tropical and tropic regions; this pattern is also found in the limited number of parallel measurements available. We are missing information from continental climates. The Global Historical Climate Network (GHCNv3) does not change the trend between 1870 and 1920 and adjust 0.1°C between 1850 and 1970. This small adjustment seems to be less than needed for this transition compared to the size of this jump estimated from the limited evidence we have from parallel measurements Further evidence for warming during this period can be found in lake and river freeze and breakup times, which show a clear shortening of the freezing period between 1850 and 1920. Most of the glaciers for which we have data from this period show reductions in their lengths, which signals clear warming. Also temperature reconstructions from proxies show warming. The CMIP model ensemble shows 0.2°C warming in the global mean temperature. We will be looking at well-homogenized national datasets and compare them to the national averages from the global collections. For this period we have up to now 3 such comparisons (Austria, Italy and Spain), these have too much scatter relative to the BEST

  4. Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests.

    PubMed

    James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P

    2013-01-01

    African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions.

  5. Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests.

    PubMed

    James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P

    2013-01-01

    African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions. PMID:23878329

  6. Winners and losers in a world with global warming: Noncooperation, altruism, and social welfare

    SciTech Connect

    Caplan, A.J.; Ellis, C.J.; Silva, E.C.D.

    1999-05-01

    In this paper, global warming is an asymmetric transboundary externality which benefits some countries or regions and harms others. Few environmental problems have captured the public`s imagination as much and attracted as much scrutiny as global warming. The general perception is that global warming is a net social bad, and that across-the-board abatement of greenhouse gas emissions is therefore desirable. Despite many interesting academic contributions, not all of the basic economics of this phenomenon have been fully worked out. The authors use a simple two-country model to analyze the effects of global warming on resource allocations, the global-warming stock, and national and global welfare.

  7. 78 FR 20632 - Mandatory Reporting of Greenhouse Gases: Notice of Data Availability Regarding Global Warming...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-04-05

    ... AGENCY Mandatory Reporting of Greenhouse Gases: Notice of Data Availability Regarding Global Warming... EPA is announcing to the public the availability of estimated global warming potentials, as well as... requesting comments on the estimated global warming potentials and the data and analysis supporting them....

  8. Responses of Seasonal Precipitation Intensity to Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lan, Chia-Wei; Lo, Min-Hui; Chou, Chia

    2016-04-01

    Under global warming, the water vapor increases with rising temperature at the rate of 7%/K. Most previous studies focus on the spatial differences of precipitation and suggest that wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier. Our recent studies show a temporal disparity of global precipitation, which the wet season becomes wetter and dry season becomes drier; therefore, the annual range increases. However, such changes in the annual range are not homogeneous globally, and in fact, the drier trend over the ocean is much larger than that over the land, where the dry season does not become drier. Such precipitation change over land is likely because of decreased omega at 500hPa (more upward motion) in the reanalysis datasets from 1980 to 2013. The trends of vertical velocity and moist static energy profile over the increased precipitation regions become more unstable. The instability is most likely attributed to the change in specific humility below 400hPa. Further, we will use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archives to investigate whether the precipitation responses in dry season are different between the ocean and land under global warming.

  9. El Nino/Southern Oscillation response to global warming.

    PubMed

    Latif, M; Keenlyside, N S

    2009-12-01

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO(2), accelerating global warming. PMID:19060210

  10. A contribution by ice nuclei to global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Zeng, Xiping; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Zhang, Minghua; Hou, Arthur Y.; Xie, Shaocheng; Lang, Stephen; Li, Xiaowen; Starr, David O'C; Li, Xiaofan

    2009-06-10

    Ice nuclei (IN) significantly affect clouds via supercooled droplets, that in turn modulate atmospheric radiation and thus climate change. Since the IN effect is relatively strong in stratiform clouds but weak in convective ones, the overall effect depends on the ratio of stratiform to convective cloud amount. In this paper, 10 years of TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite data are analyzed to confirm that stratiform precipitation fraction increases with increasing latitude, which implies that the IN effect is stronger at higher latitudes. To quantitatively evaluate the IN effect versus latitude, large-scale forcing data from ten field campaigns are used to drive a CRM (cloud-resolving model) to generate longterm cloud simulations. As revealed in the simulations, the increase in the net downward radiative flux at the TOA (top of the atmosphere) from doubling the current IN concentrations becomes larger at higher latitude, which is attributed to the meridional tendency in the stratiform precipitation fraction. Surface warming from doubling the IN concentrations, based on the radiative balance of the globe, is compared with that from anthropogenic CO2. We found that the former effect is stronger than the latter in middle and high latitudes but not in the Tropics. With regard to the impact of IN on global warming, there are two factors to consider: the radiative effect from increasing the IN concentration and the increase in IN concentration itself. The former relies on cloud ensembles and thus varies mainly with latitude. In contrast, the latter relies on IN sources (e.g., the land surface distribution) and thus varies not only with latitude but also longitude. Global desertification and industrialization provide clues on the geographic variation of the increase in IN concentration since pre-industrial times. Thus, their effect on global warming can be inferred and then be compared with observations. Finally, a general match in geographic

  11. A Contribution by Ice Nuclei to Global Warming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zeng, Xiping; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Zhang, Minghua; Hou, Arthur Y.; Xie, Shaocheng; Lang, Stephen; Li, Xiaowen; Starr, David O.; Li, Xiaofan

    2009-01-01

    Ice nuclei (IN) significantly affect clouds via supercooled droplets, that in turn modulate atmospheric radiation and thus climate change. Since the IN effect is relatively strong in stratiform clouds but weak in convective ones, the overall effect depends on the ratio of stratiform to convective cloud amount. In this paper, 10 years of TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite data are analyzed to confirm that stratiform precipitation fraction increases with increasing latitude, which implies that the IN effect is stronger at higher latitudes. To quantitatively evaluate the IN effect versus latitude, large-scale forcing data from ten field campaigns are used to drive a CRM (cloud-resolving model) to generate longterm cloud simulations. As revealed in the simulations, the increase in the net downward radiative flux at the TOA (top of the atmosphere) from doubling the current IN concentrations is larger at higher latitude, which is attributed to the meridional tendency in the stratiform precipitation fraction. Surface warming from doubling the IN concentrations, based on the radiative balance of the globe, is compared with that from anthropogenic COZ . It is found that the former effect is stronger than the latter in middle and high latitudes but not in the Tropics. With regard to the impact of IN on global warming, there are two factors to consider: the radiative effect from increasing the IN concentration and the increase in IN concentration itself. The former relies on cloud ensembles and thus varies mainly with latitude. In contrast, the latter relies on IN sources (e.g., the land surface distribution) and thus varies not only with latitude but also longitude. Global desertification and industrialization provide clues on the geographic variation of the increase in IN concentration since pre-industrial times. Thus, their effect on global warming can be inferred and then be compared with observations. A general match in geographic and seasonal

  12. Public responses to global warming in Newcastle, Australia: Environmental values and environmental decision making

    SciTech Connect

    Bulkeley, H.

    1997-12-31

    This paper seeks to address tile social and cultural dimensions of the global warming issue through an analysis of `public` responses in Newcastle, Australia, based on recent research undertaken for a PhD thesis. Given the history of Australian involvement in the F.C.C.C process this case-study will provides an interesting context in which to analyse discourses of environmental values. It is argued that these discourses shape and are shaped by public responses to global environmental issues in ways which have important implications for the definition of issues as `problems` with acceptable solutions, for the implementation of such solutions and for their political consequences.

  13. Global warming: it's not only size that matters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hegerl, Gabriele C.

    2011-09-01

    Observed and model simulated warming is particularly large in high latitudes, and hence the Arctic is often seen as the posterchild of vulnerability to global warming. However, Mahlstein et al (2011) point out that the signal of climate change is emerging locally from that of climate variability earliest in regions of low climate variability, based on climate model data, and in agreement with observations. This is because high latitude regions are not only regions of strong feedbacks that enhance the global warming signal, but also regions of substantial climate variability, driven by strong dynamics and enhanced by feedbacks (Hall 2004). Hence the spatial pattern of both observed warming and simulated warming for the 20th century shows strong warming in high latitudes, but this warming occurs against a backdrop of strong variability. Thus, the ratio of the warming to internal variability is not necessarily highest in the regions that warm fastest—and Mahlstein et al illustrate that it is actually the low-variability regions where the signal of local warming emerges first from that of climate variability. Thus, regions with strongest warming are neither the most important to diagnose that forcing changes climate, nor are they the regions which will necessarily experience the strongest impact. The importance of the signal-to-noise ratio has been known to the detection and attribution community, but has been buried in technical 'optimal fingerprinting' literature (e.g., Hasselmann 1979, Allen and Tett 1999), where it was used for an earlier detection of climate change by emphasizing aspects of the fingerprint of global warming associated with low variability in estimates of the observed warming. What, however, was not discussed was that the local signal-to-noise ratio is of interest also for local climate change: where temperatures emerge from the range visited by internal climate variability, it is reasonable to assume that changes in climate will also cause more

  14. Fire, global warming, and the carbon balance of boreal forests

    SciTech Connect

    Kasischke, E.S.; Christensen, N.L. Jr.; Stocks, B.J.

    1995-05-01

    Fire strongly influences carbon cycling and storage in boreal forests. In the near-term, if global warming occurs, the frequency and intensity of fires in boreal forests are likely to increase significantly. A sensitivity analysis on the relationship between fire and carbon storage in the living-biomass and ground-layer compartments of boreal forests was performed to determine how the carbon stocks would be expected to change as a result of global warming. A model was developed to study this sensitivity. The model shows if the annual area burned in boreal forests increases by 50%, as predicted by some studies, then the amount of carbon stored in the ground layer would decrease between 3.5 and 5.6 kg/m{sup 2}, and the amount of carbon stored in the living biomass would increase by 1.2 kg/m{sup 2}. There would be a net loss of carbon in boreal forests between 2.3 and 4.4 kg/m{sup 2}, or 27.1-51.9 Pg on a global scale. Because the carbon in the ground layer is lot more quickly than carbon is accumulated in living biomass, this could lead to a short-term release of carbon over the next 50-100 yr at a rate of 0.33-0.8 Pg/yr, dependent on the distribution of carbon between organic and mineral soil in the ground layer (which is presently not well-understood) and the increase in fire frequency caused by global warming. 57 refs., 9 figs., 2 tabs.

  15. Critical impacts of global warming on land ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ostberg, S.; Lucht, W.; Schaphoff, S.; Gerten, D.

    2013-10-01

    Globally increasing temperatures are likely to have impacts on terrestrial, aquatic and marine ecosystems that are difficult to manage. Quantifying impacts worldwide and systematically as a function of global warming is fundamental to substantiating the discussion on climate mitigation targets and adaptation planning. Here we present a macro-scale analysis of climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems based on newly developed sets of climate scenarios featuring a step-wise sampling of global mean temperature increase between 1.5 and 5 K by 2100. These are processed by a biogeochemical model (LPJmL) to derive an aggregated metric of simultaneous biogeochemical and structural shifts in land surface properties which we interpret as a proxy for the risk of shifts and possibly disruptions in ecosystems. Our results show a substantial risk of climate change to transform terrestrial ecosystems profoundly. Nearly no area of the world is free from such risk, unless strong mitigation limits global warming to around 2 degrees above preindustrial level. Even then, our simulations for most climate models agree that up to one-fifth of the land surface may experience at least moderate ecosystem change, primarily at high latitudes and high altitudes. If countries fulfil their current emissions reduction pledges, resulting in roughly 3.5 K of warming, this area expands to cover half the land surface, including the majority of tropical forests and savannas and the boreal zone. Due to differences in regional patterns of climate change, the area potentially at risk of major ecosystem change considering all climate models is up to 2.5 times as large as for a single model.

  16. Continued global warming after CO2 emissions stoppage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Froelicher, T. L.; Winton, M.; Sarmiento, J. L.

    2014-12-01

    Recent studies have suggested that global mean surface temperature would remain approximately constant on multi-century timescales after CO2 emissions are stopped. These studies suggest that the cooling effect of reduction in radiative forcing due to the decrease in atmospheric CO2 is roughly balanced by the warming effect of reduction in ocean heat uptake. Here we use Earth system model simulations of such a stoppage to demonstrate that in some models, surface temperature may actually increase on multi-century timescales after an initial century-long decrease. For example, global mean surface temperature may increase by 0.6°C after carbon emissions are stopped at 2°C above preindustrial. Surprisingly, the temperature increase occurs in spite of a decline in radiative forcing that exceeds the decline in ocean heat uptake—a circumstance that would otherwise be expected to lead to a decline in global temperature. The reason is that the warming effect of decreasing ocean heat uptake together with feedback effects arising in response to the geographic structure of ocean heat uptake overcompensates the cooling effect of decreasing atmospheric CO2 on multi-century timescales in these models. We show that ocean heat uptake, which occurs preferentially at subpolar latitudes, has a larger temperature impact per watt per square meter than the CO2 radiative forcing. In other words, the cooling effect of a high-latitude heat sink is larger than that of an equivalent tropical heat sink. The implications of our results for estimates of allowable carbon emissions required to remain below a specific global warming target will be discussed.

  17. PRISM3 Global Paleoclimate Reconstruction: A Global Warming Data Set

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dowsett, H. J.; Chandler, M. A.; Cronin, T. M.; Dwyer, G. S.; Haywood, A. M.; Hill, D. J.; Robinson, M. M.; Salzmann, U.; Williams, M.

    2007-12-01

    The Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) Project provides a conceptual model and synoptic view of the earth during the last interval considerably warmer than modern (3.3 to 3.0 Ma) through reconstruction of sea-surface temperature (SST) and other paleoenvironmental parameters. The first PRISM reconstruction, with its foundation in a global network of paleontological analyses, was completed in the early 1990s. Since then, several significant revisions have been released culminating in the PRISM2 data set. The primary goal of PRISM remains a better understanding of the Earth's climate system during the mid-Pliocene, and to that end, includes the development of digital data sets for use with climate models. The new PRISM3 reconstruction, slated to be released early in 2008, has revised SST fields based upon integration of previous and new faunal and floral analyses with new geochemical proxies and biomarkers, a revised vegetation/land cover data set utilizing the BIOME 4 vegetation classification scheme, 3-dimensional land ice distribution based upon ice-sheet model experiments, new sea level estimates based upon stable isotopes and bottom water temperatures, and revised sea-ice distribution. A deep ocean temperature reconstruction, PRISM3D, adds a 3- dimensional component, which can be used for initiating coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM simulations. PRISM3 is a collaborative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), National Science Foundation (NSF), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), British Antarctic Survey (BAS), and several national and international academic institutions (Columbia University, Duke University, George Mason University, University of Leeds and University of Leicester).

  18. Inland Water Temperature and the recent Global Warming Hiatus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hook, S. J.; Healey, N.; Lenters, J. D.; O'Reilly, C.

    2015-12-01

    We are using thermal infrared satellite data in conjunction with in situ measurements to produce water temperatures for all the large inland water bodies in North America and the rest of the world for potential use as climate indicator. Recent studies have revealed significant warming of inland waters throughout the world. The observed rate of warming is - in many cases - greater than that of the ambient air temperature. These rapid, unprecedented changes in inland water temperatures have profound implications for lake hydrodynamics, productivity, and biotic communities. Scientists are just beginning to understand the global extent, regional patterns, physical mechanisms, and ecological consequences of lake warming. As part of our earlier studies we have collected thermal infrared satellite data from those satellite sensors that provide long-term and frequent spaceborne thermal infrared measurements of inland waters including ATSR, AVHRR, and MODIS and used these to examine trends in water surface temperature for approximately 169 of the largest inland water bodies in the world. We are now extending this work to generate temperature time-series of all North American inland water bodies that are sufficiently large to be studied using 1km resolution satellite data for the last 3 decades, approximately 268 lakes. These data are then being related to changes in the surface air temperature and compared with regional trends in water surface temperature derived from CMIP5/IPCC model simulations/projections to better predict future temperature changes. We will discuss the available datasets and processing methodologies together with the patterns they reveal based on recent changes in the global warming, with a particular focus on the inland waters of the southwestern USA.

  19. Addressing Pre-service Teachers Ideas About Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lutz, R. V.; Lambert, J. L.; Bleicher, R. E.; Lindgren, J.; Edwards, A.; Soden, B.

    2011-12-01

    Despite the scientific consensus about global climate change (GCC) and the potential risk, the media often portrays the science as controversial and as a debate (Kellstedt, Zahran, & Vedlitz, 2008; Washington & Cook, 2011). According to a recent report, young adults are divided on the issue of global warming (Feldman, Nisbet, Leiserowitz, & Maibach, 2010). Understanding both the science and the nature of this issue is especially important for future teachers. Also, given that K-12 students have numerous alternative conceptions or lack of prior knowledge, it is critical that teachers have an understanding of the fundamental science underlying climate change. This study examines undergraduate science methods students' views of GCC, the relationship between students' views and their knowledge of GCC, and the impact of the course instructional approach. Students' views of GCC were assessed using the Views of Global Climate Change instrument (VGCC), a survey developed by the authors of this study (Lambert et al., 2010). The survey was developed to specifically measure students' views on: 1) their knowledge of GCC, 2) causes of GCC, 3) evidence (or indicators) of GCC, 4) impacts of GCC, 5) actions or solutions, 6) influence of politics on the issue of GCC, 7) scientific consensus, 8) trust of sources of information, and 9) concern about GCC. The Knowledge of Global Climate Change instrument (KGCC) (Lambert, Bleicher, & Lindgren, 2011) was employed to measure students' understanding of the greenhouse effect, carbon cycle, causes, and consequences of GCC. Pre-surveys indicated that 49% of the students felt that human activity was the main cause of climate change. At the conclusion of the course, 72% of the students thought that humans were causing climate change, and students' overall views about global warming significantly shifted toward being more concerned. Students' knowledge of the greenhouse effect, carbon cycle, causes, and impacts also increased significantly

  20. Changes in Extreme Warm and Cold Temperatures Associated with 20th Century Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Compo, G. P.; McColl, C.; Penland, C.

    2015-12-01

    Has 20thcentury global warming resulted in increases of extreme warm temperatures and decreases of extreme cold temperatures around the globe? One would certainly expect this to be so if the changes in the extreme temperature probabilities were determined only by the mean shift and not by changes in the width and/or shape of the temperature distribution. In reality, however, the latter two effects could also be important. Even ignoring changes of shape, it is easily shown that a 25% reduction of standard deviation, for example, can completely offset the effect of a mean positive shift of 0.5 standardized units on the probabilities of extreme positive values. A 25% increase of standard deviation can similarly offset the effect of the mean shift on the probabilities of extreme negative values. It is possible for such changes of standard deviation to occur in regions of large circulation and storminess changes associated with global warming. With this caveat in mind, we have investigated the change in probability of extreme weekly-averaged near-surface air temperatures, in both winter and summer, from the first half-century (1901-1950) to the last half-century (1960-2009) of the 1901 to 2009 period. We have done this using two newly available global atmospheric datasets (ERA-20C and 20CR-v2c) and large ensembles of global coupled climate model simulations of this period, plus very large ensembles of uncoupled atmospheric model simulations of our own. The results are revealing. In the tropics, the changes in the extreme warm and cold temperature probabilities are indeed generally consistent with those expected from the mean shift of the distribution. Outside the tropics, however, they are generally significantly inconsistent with the mean temperature shift, with many regions showing little or no change in the positive temperature extremes and in some instances even a decrease. In such regions, it is clear that the change in the temperature standard deviation is

  1. Uncertainties in the simulation of permafrost response to global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dankers, Rutger; Anisimov, Oleg; Falloon, Pete; Gornall, Jemma; Reneva, Svetlana; Wiltshire, Andy

    2010-05-01

    Permafrost is generally believed to be highly sensitive to global warming, and some studies have projected dramatic reductions in permafrost extent by the end of this century. However, few studies have addressed the uncertainties in simulating the response of permafrost to climate change. Conventional permafrost models are based on well-established relations of permafrost occurrence with climatic variables, but often assume that the ground thermal regime is in equilibrium with the atmospheric climate. The land surface schemes of many climate models, on the other hand, use a process-based approach to simulate the dynamics of frozen ground, but ignore some of the key processes that will determine the pace of the permafrost response, in particular the thermodynamics of the deeper soil. Here we attempt to identify and quantify the different sources of uncertainty in the simulation of the permafrost response to climate change. These include model structure, parameter uncertainty, and uncertainty in the climate signal over permafrost regions. To this end, we used two very different modelling approaches: a stochastic equilibrium model that is able to account for the parameter uncertainty in traditional large-scale models of climate-permafrost interactions; and an updated version of the JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) land surface scheme, that now includes a representation of organic soils and the deeper soil layers. Both models have been driven by probabilistic climate scenarios from the Hadley Centre (HadCM3) perturbed physics ensemble, that allows for an estimation of the probability density function of key climatic parameters over the region. By using this approach we can compare the level of parameter uncertainty in the stochastic permafrost model to uncertainty in the climate model simulations, and we can determine the differences that arise from the divergent modelling approaches. First results indicate that the spread in the climate scenario ensemble is

  2. Continued global warming after CO2 emissions stoppage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frölicher, Thomas; Winton, Michael; Sarmiento, Jorge

    2014-05-01

    Recent studies have suggested that global mean surface temperature would remain approximately constant on multi-century timescales after CO2 emissions are stopped. Here we use Earth system model simulations of such a stoppage to demonstrate that in some models, surface temperature may actually increase on multi-century timescales after an initial century-long decrease. For example, global mean surface temperature may increase by 0.6°C after a carbon emissions stoppage at 2-degree. This increase occurs in spite of a decline in radiative forcing that exceeds the decline in ocean heat uptake—a circumstance that would otherwise be expected to lead to a decline in global temperature. The reason is that the warming effect of decreasing ocean heat uptake together with feedback effects arising in response to the geographic structure of ocean heat uptake overcompensates the cooling effect of decreasing atmospheric CO2 on multi-century timescales. Our study also reveals that equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates based on a widely used method of regressing the Earth's energy imbalance against surface temperature change are biased. Uncertainty in the magnitude of the feedback effects associated with the magnitude and geographic distribution of ocean heat uptake therefore contributes substantially to the uncertainty in allowable carbon emissions for a given multi-century warming target.

  3. Ocean Global Warming Impacts on the South America Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos-Da-Silva, Renato

    2016-03-01

    The global Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Model (OLAM) model was used to estimate the impacts of the global oceanic warming on the climate projections for the 21st Century focusing on the South America region. This new model is able to represent simultaneously the global and regional scales using a refining grid approach for the region of interest. First, the model was run for a 31-year control period consisting on the years 1960-1990 using the monthly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) data as a driver for the ocean fluxes. Then, the model was run for the period 2010-2100 using the monthly projected SST from the Hadley Center model (HadCM3) as a driver for the oceanic changes. The model was set up with an icosahedral triangular global grid having about 250 km of grid spacing and with a refining grid resolution with the cells reaching about 32 km over the South America region. The results show an overall temperature increase mainly over the center of the Amazon basin caused by the increase of the greenhouse effect of the water vapor; a decrease on precipitation mainly over the northeast Brazil and an increase in the south and over the western Amazon region; and a major increase on the near surface wind speed. These results are similar to the global coupled models; however, OLAM has a novel type of grid that can provide the interaction between the global and regional scales simultaneously.

  4. Northern hemisphere glaciation during the globally warm early Late Pliocene.

    PubMed

    De Schepper, Stijn; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Naafs, B David A; Van Renterghem, Cédéric; Hennissen, Jan; Head, Martin J; Louwye, Stephen; Fabian, Karl

    2013-01-01

    The early Late Pliocene (3.6 to ∼3.0 million years ago) is the last extended interval in Earth's history when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were comparable to today's and global climate was warmer. Yet a severe global glaciation during marine isotope stage (MIS) M2 interrupted this phase of global warmth ∼3.30 million years ago, and is seen as a premature attempt of the climate system to establish an ice-age world. Here we propose a conceptual model for the glaciation and deglaciation of MIS M2 based on geochemical and palynological records from five marine sediment cores along a Caribbean to eastern North Atlantic transect. Our records show that increased Pacific-to-Atlantic flow via the Central American Seaway weakened the North Atlantic Current and attendant northward heat transport prior to MIS M2. The consequent cooling of the northern high latitude oceans permitted expansion of the continental ice sheets during MIS M2, despite near-modern atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Sea level drop during this glaciation halted the inflow of Pacific water to the Atlantic via the Central American Seaway, allowing the build-up of a Caribbean Warm Pool. Once this warm pool was large enough, the Gulf Stream-North Atlantic Current system was reinvigorated, leading to significant northward heat transport that terminated the glaciation. Before and after MIS M2, heat transport via the North Atlantic Current was crucial in maintaining warm climates comparable to those predicted for the end of this century.

  5. Northern Hemisphere Glaciation during the Globally Warm Early Late Pliocene

    PubMed Central

    De Schepper, Stijn; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Naafs, B. David A; Van Renterghem, Cédéric; Hennissen, Jan; Head, Martin J.; Louwye, Stephen; Fabian, Karl

    2013-01-01

    The early Late Pliocene (3.6 to ∼3.0 million years ago) is the last extended interval in Earth's history when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were comparable to today's and global climate was warmer. Yet a severe global glaciation during marine isotope stage (MIS) M2 interrupted this phase of global warmth ∼3.30 million years ago, and is seen as a premature attempt of the climate system to establish an ice-age world. Here we propose a conceptual model for the glaciation and deglaciation of MIS M2 based on geochemical and palynological records from five marine sediment cores along a Caribbean to eastern North Atlantic transect. Our records show that increased Pacific-to-Atlantic flow via the Central American Seaway weakened the North Atlantic Current and attendant northward heat transport prior to MIS M2. The consequent cooling of the northern high latitude oceans permitted expansion of the continental ice sheets during MIS M2, despite near-modern atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Sea level drop during this glaciation halted the inflow of Pacific water to the Atlantic via the Central American Seaway, allowing the build-up of a Caribbean Warm Pool. Once this warm pool was large enough, the Gulf Stream–North Atlantic Current system was reinvigorated, leading to significant northward heat transport that terminated the glaciation. Before and after MIS M2, heat transport via the North Atlantic Current was crucial in maintaining warm climates comparable to those predicted for the end of this century. PMID:24349081

  6. Critical impacts of global warming on land ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ostberg, S.; Lucht, W.; Schaphoff, S.; Gerten, D.

    2013-05-01

    Globally increasing temperatures may have unmanageable impacts on terrestrial, aquatic and marine ecosystems. Quantifying impacts worldwide and systematically as a function of global warming is critical to substantiate the ongoing international negotiations on climate mitigation targets. Here we present a macro-scale analysis of climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems based on newly developed sets of climate scenarios featuring a step-wise sampling of global mean temperature increase between 1.5 and 5 K by 2100. These are processed by a biogeochemical model (LPJmL) to derive an aggregated metric of simultaneous biogeochemical and structural shifts in land surface properties which we interpret as a proxy for the risk of shifts and possibly disruptions in ecosystems. Our results show a substantial risk of climate change to transform terrestrial ecosystems profoundly. Nearly no area of the world is free from such risk, unless strong mitigation limits warming to around 2 degrees above preindustrial level. Even then, most climate models agree that up to one fifth of the land surface may experience at least moderate change, primarily at high latitudes and high altitudes. If countries fulfill their current emissions pledges, resulting in roughly 3.5 K of warming, this area expands to cover half the land surface, including the majority of tropical forests and savannas and the boreal zone. Due to differences in regional patterns of climate change the area potentially at risk of severe ecosystem change considering all AOGCMs is up to 2.5 times as large as for a single AOGCM.

  7. Global warming mitigation potential of biogas plants in India.

    PubMed

    Pathak, H; Jain, N; Bhatia, A; Mohanty, S; Gupta, Navindu

    2009-10-01

    Biogas technology, besides supplying energy and manure, provides an excellent opportunity for mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and reducing global warming through substituting firewood for cooking, kerosene for lighting and cooking and chemical fertilizers. A study was undertaken to calculate (1) global warming mitigation potential (GMP) and thereby earning carbon credit of a family size biogas plant in India, (2) GMP of the existing and target biogas plants in the country and (3) atmospheric pollution reduction by a family size biogas plant. The GMP of a family size biogas plant was 9.7 t CO(2) equiv. year( - 1) and with the current price of US $10 t( - 1) CO(2) equiv., carbon credit of US $97 year( - 1) could be earned from such reduction in greenhouse gas emission under the clean development mechanism (CDM). A family size biogas plant substitutes 316 L of kerosene, 5,535 kg firewood and 4,400 kg cattle dung cake as fuels which will reduce emissions of NOx, SO(2), CO and volatile organic compounds to the atmosphere by 16.4, 11.3, 987.0 and 69.7 kg year( - 1), respectively. Presently 3.83 million biogas plants are operating in the country, which can mitigate global warming by 37 Mt CO(2) equiv. year( - 1). Government of India has a target of installing 12.34 million biogas plants by 2010. This target has a GMP of 120 Mt CO(2) equiv. year( - 1) and US $1,197 million as carbon credit under the CDM. However, if all the collectible cattle dung (225 Mt) produced in the country is used, 51.2 million family size biogas plants can be supported which will have a GMP of 496 Mt of CO(2) equiv. year( - 1) and can earn US $4,968 million as carbon credit. The reduction in global warming should encourage policy makers to promote biogas technology to combat climate change and integration of carbon revenues will help the farmers to develop biogas as a profitable activity.

  8. The rising tide: Global warming and world sea levels

    SciTech Connect

    Edgerton, L.T.

    1991-01-01

    The author presents a broad-based and well-written approach to the impacts of sea level rise. Besides chapters on global warming, sources of sea level variability and the future, the effects on coastal nations, the book contains an important action-oriented discussion of proposed legislation and guidelines for planning and management aimed at reducing loss and damage produced by sea-level rise. The list of acknowledgements includes all the leading practitioners in the field. The references and information are current; reports and information from 1989 and 1990 meetings are included.

  9. Nuclear Technology, Global Warming, and the Politicization of Science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weart, Spencer

    2016-03-01

    Since the mid 20th century physical scientists have engaged in two fierce public debates on issues that posed existential risks to modern society: nuclear weapons and global warming. The two overlapped with a third major debate over the deployment of nuclear power reactors. Each controversy included technical disagreements raised by a minority among the scientists themselves. Despite efforts to deal with the issues objectively, the scientists became entangled in left vs. right political polarization. All these debates, but particularly the one over climate change, resulted in a deterioration of public faith in the objectivity and integrity of scientists.

  10. The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming.

    PubMed

    Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-08-20

    Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C(-1) and 1.2 m °C(-1) of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C(-1) within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.

  11. The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming

    PubMed Central

    Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U.; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A.; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C−1 and 1.2 m °C−1 of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C−1 within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales. PMID:23858443

  12. The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming.

    PubMed

    Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-08-20

    Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C(-1) and 1.2 m °C(-1) of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C(-1) within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales. PMID:23858443

  13. Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming.

    PubMed

    Pounds, J Alan; Bustamante, Martín R; Coloma, Luis A; Consuegra, Jamie A; Fogden, Michael P L; Foster, Pru N; La Marca, Enrique; Masters, Karen L; Merino-Viteri, Andrés; Puschendorf, Robert; Ron, Santiago R; Sánchez-Azofeifa, G Arturo; Still, Christopher J; Young, Bruce E

    2006-01-12

    As the Earth warms, many species are likely to disappear, often because of changing disease dynamics. Here we show that a recent mass extinction associated with pathogen outbreaks is tied to global warming. Seventeen years ago, in the mountains of Costa Rica, the Monteverde harlequin frog (Atelopus sp.) vanished along with the golden toad (Bufo periglenes). An estimated 67% of the 110 or so species of Atelopus, which are endemic to the American tropics, have met the same fate, and a pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) is implicated. Analysing the timing of losses in relation to changes in sea surface and air temperatures, we conclude with 'very high confidence' (> 99%, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) that large-scale warming is a key factor in the disappearances. We propose that temperatures at many highland localities are shifting towards the growth optimum of Batrachochytrium, thus encouraging outbreaks. With climate change promoting infectious disease and eroding biodiversity, the urgency of reducing greenhouse-gas concentrations is now undeniable.

  14. Understand Changes of the Tropical Tropopause Under Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, P.; Paynter, D.; Ming, Y.; Ramaswamy, V.

    2014-12-01

    Previous model studies has predicted a warmer and higher tropical tropopause as greenhouse gases increases, but the mechanisms of such changes have not been investigated fully. Here we examine changes the tropical tropopause in two idealized experiments simulated by GFDL global climate model AM3: (1) 4xCO2 with fixed sea surface temperature; and (2) an uniform 4K increase of the sea surface temperature with fixed greenhouse gases concentrations. The tropical tropopause becomes warmer in both experiments, but a higher tropopause is only seen in the second case. By examining the heat budget of the tropical tropoapuse, we diagnose the physical processes that are responsible for these changes and quantify their contributions. For the 4xCO2 experiment, the direct radiative effect of CO2 increase contributes the most. For the SST warming experiment, the radiative effect of a warmer troposphere and convection-related processes lead to a warming at 100 hPa, while a stronger Brewer-Dobson circulation and associated changes in ozone lead to a cooling at 60 hPa. This warming-cooling pattern results in a significant upward shift of the tropopause.

  15. Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming.

    PubMed

    Pounds, J Alan; Bustamante, Martín R; Coloma, Luis A; Consuegra, Jamie A; Fogden, Michael P L; Foster, Pru N; La Marca, Enrique; Masters, Karen L; Merino-Viteri, Andrés; Puschendorf, Robert; Ron, Santiago R; Sánchez-Azofeifa, G Arturo; Still, Christopher J; Young, Bruce E

    2006-01-12

    As the Earth warms, many species are likely to disappear, often because of changing disease dynamics. Here we show that a recent mass extinction associated with pathogen outbreaks is tied to global warming. Seventeen years ago, in the mountains of Costa Rica, the Monteverde harlequin frog (Atelopus sp.) vanished along with the golden toad (Bufo periglenes). An estimated 67% of the 110 or so species of Atelopus, which are endemic to the American tropics, have met the same fate, and a pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) is implicated. Analysing the timing of losses in relation to changes in sea surface and air temperatures, we conclude with 'very high confidence' (> 99%, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) that large-scale warming is a key factor in the disappearances. We propose that temperatures at many highland localities are shifting towards the growth optimum of Batrachochytrium, thus encouraging outbreaks. With climate change promoting infectious disease and eroding biodiversity, the urgency of reducing greenhouse-gas concentrations is now undeniable. PMID:16407945

  16. Cold snaps still a threat despite global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2011-07-01

    Long stretches of extreme cold weather can cause serious damage to agriculture as well as to transportation, water, and energy infrastructure. Cold snaps have the potential to kill people, with deaths attributed to cold weather often outpacing those caused by extreme heat. With climate projections anticipating at least 2deg;C increases in global average temperature by the end of the century, some regional planners may be taking solace in the idea that the threat of cold weather extremes could fade as the world warms. Research by Kodra et al., however, suggests that on a global scale the intensity and duration of extreme cold weather events will persist and in some regions will possibly even increase by the end of the 21st century. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/ 2011GL047103, 2011)

  17. [Global warming: trailblazer for tropical infections in Germany?].

    PubMed

    Hemmer, C J; Frimmel, S; Kinzelbach, R; Gürtler, L; Reisinger, E C

    2007-11-01

    Since 1850, the CO (2) content of the atmosphere has increased from 280 to 360 ppm, and the average surface temperature has risen from 14.6 to 15.3 C . A further increase between 1.8 and 4.0 C is expected for the 21st century. Temperate and cold climate zones are affected predominantly, but tropical regions are not spared. At the same time, the world wide climate effects of the "El Niño Southern Oscillation" are amplified. Global warming enhances the growth of tropical pathogens (malarial plasmodia, leishmania, yellow fever virus, dengue virus, West Nile virus, Vibrio cholerae) and vectors (anopheles, aedes, culex, and phlebotomus mosquitos; hard ticks). Global warming may lead to the emergence of diseases which at present are not endemic in Germany, like West Nile fever, Dengue fever, or Leishmaniases, and to enhanced transmission of borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Malaria and cholera, in contrast, are influenced more strongly by socioeconomic factors. Improved surveillance and intensified research on the relationship between climate change and infectious diseases is needed.

  18. States' roles in reducing global warming: Achieving international goals

    SciTech Connect

    Feldman, D.L.; Wilt, C.A. . Energy, Environment, and Resources Center)

    1994-12-01

    National governments hold major responsibility for reducing global warming. However, some of the most important efforts to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases must occur at sub-national levels. In federal systems composed of states, as well as unitary systems that impose national policies upon regions, smaller administrative units are involved in energy conservation and end-use efficiency programs, CFC reduction activities, and transportation planning. States and regions also provide greenhouse gas emissions and other basic environmental data needed to comply with international agreements. The authors argue that, for some issues states are better able than national governments to develop innovative, flexible greenhouse gas policies that are administratively feasible and publicly acceptable. International agreements and policy declarations and institution-building efforts acknowledge the importance of institution-building efforts acknowledge the importance of bottom-up approaches that rely on regionally-based, sustainable development activities to reduce global warming. They describe how national energy and pollution-prevention policies in the US invest states with specific responsibilities for reducing greenhouse gases or participating in adaptation strategies.

  19. Potential effect of global warming on mosquito-borne arboviruses.

    PubMed

    Reeves, W C; Hardy, J L; Reisen, W K; Milby, M M

    1994-05-01

    If global warming occurs in California, daily mean temperatures may increase by 3 to 5 degrees C, precipitation patterns will change, and sea level may rise 1 m. Studies were done on effect of temperature changes on survival of Culex tarsalis Coquillett, the primary vector of western equine encephalomyelitis (WEE) and St. Louis encephalitis (SLE) viruses, in two regions where temperatures differed by 5 degrees C. Daily mortality of adult vectors increased by 1% for each 1 degree C increase in temperature. At 25 degrees C, only 5% of Cx. tarsalis survived for 8 or more days, the time required for extrinsic incubation of these viruses. Extrinsic incubation times for these viruses shortened when temperatures were increased from 18 to 25 degrees C. WEE virus infection was modulated and transmission decreased at 32 degrees C. If temperatures in the warmer region increase by 5 degrees C, WEE virus may disappear and SLE virus would persist. In the cooler region, a 5 degrees C increase would decrease vector survivorship and virus activity in midsummer. In North America, epidemics of WEE have prevailed above a 21 degrees C isotherm and those of SLE below this isotherm. With global warming, epidemics of these viruses could extend into currently unreceptive northern areas. WEE virus would disappear from more southern regions. Geographic distribution of vector, human, and animal populations could be altered. North America could become more receptive to invasion by tropical vectors and diseases.

  20. Possible human health impacts of a global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Nichols, M.C.; Kalkstein, L.S.; Cheng, S.

    1995-03-01

    Some ways in which a global warming may affect human health are discussed. Research is presented which explores the hypothesis that heat stress-induced mortality may increase substantially in the event of a worldwide temperature increase. Two procedures are applied to four disparate nations: the US, Canada, China and Egypt. Results indicate that significant increases in heat-related mortality are likely to occur, particularly in developing nations. Factors which might help to mitigate these increases, such as acclimatization and air conditioning, are also examined. Another human health impact of a global warming is the likely spread of certain vector-borne diseases into areas of the world where they do not currently exist. Two of these, onchocerciasis and malaria, have been chosen for a detailed international study. The initial steps in this effort are discussed. Policy options are proposed which may prepare international organizations and public officials for difficulties which may arise. Implementation of these procedures, which include continuation of internationally sponsored research, could help to ameliorate many of the problems outlined in this paper.

  1. Global warming benefits the small in aquatic ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Daufresne, Martin; Lengfellner, Kathrin; Sommer, Ulrich

    2009-08-01

    Understanding the ecological impacts of climate change is a crucial challenge of the twenty-first century. There is a clear lack of general rules regarding the impacts of global warming on biota. Here, we present a metaanalysis of the effect of climate change on body size of ectothermic aquatic organisms (bacteria, phyto- and zooplankton, and fish) from the community to the individual level. Using long-term surveys, experimental data and published results, we show a significant increase in the proportion of small-sized species and young age classes and a decrease in size-at-age. These results are in accordance with the ecological rules dealing with the temperature-size relationships (i.e., Bergmann's rule, James' rule and Temperature-Size Rule). Our study provides evidence that reduced body size is the third universal ecological response to global warming in aquatic systems besides the shift of species ranges toward higher altitudes and latitudes and the seasonal shifts in life cycle events.

  2. Continued global warming after CO2 emissions stoppage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frölicher, Thomas Lukas; Winton, Michael; Sarmiento, Jorge Louis

    2014-01-01

    Recent studies have suggested that global mean surface temperature would remain approximately constant on multi-century timescales after CO2 emissions are stopped. Here we use Earth system model simulations of such a stoppage to demonstrate that in some models, surface temperature may actually increase on multi-century timescales after an initial century-long decrease. This occurs in spite of a decline in radiative forcing that exceeds the decline in ocean heat uptake--a circumstance that would otherwise be expected to lead to a decline in global temperature. The reason is that the warming effect of decreasing ocean heat uptake together with feedback effects arising in response to the geographic structure of ocean heat uptake overcompensates the cooling effect of decreasing atmospheric CO2 on multi-century timescales. Our study also reveals that equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates based on a widely used method of regressing the Earth's energy imbalance against surface temperature change are biased. Uncertainty in the magnitude of the feedback effects associated with the magnitude and geographic distribution of ocean heat uptake therefore contributes substantially to the uncertainty in allowable carbon emissions for a given multi-century warming target.

  3. Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming.

    PubMed

    Peng, Shaobing; Huang, Jianliang; Sheehy, John E; Laza, Rebecca C; Visperas, Romeo M; Zhong, Xuhua; Centeno, Grace S; Khush, Gurdev S; Cassman, Kenneth G

    2004-07-01

    The impact of projected global warming on crop yields has been evaluated by indirect methods using simulation models. Direct studies on the effects of observed climate change on crop growth and yield could provide more accurate information for assessing the impact of climate change on crop production. We analyzed weather data at the International Rice Research Institute Farm from 1979 to 2003 to examine temperature trends and the relationship between rice yield and temperature by using data from irrigated field experiments conducted at the International Rice Research Institute Farm from 1992 to 2003. Here we report that annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures have increased by 0.35 degrees C and 1.13 degrees C, respectively, for the period 1979-2003 and a close linkage between rice grain yield and mean minimum temperature during the dry cropping season (January to April). Grain yield declined by 10% for each 1 degrees C increase in growing-season minimum temperature in the dry season, whereas the effect of maximum temperature on crop yield was insignificant. This report provides a direct evidence of decreased rice yields from increased nighttime temperature associated with global warming. PMID:15226500

  4. Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming.

    PubMed

    Peng, Shaobing; Huang, Jianliang; Sheehy, John E; Laza, Rebecca C; Visperas, Romeo M; Zhong, Xuhua; Centeno, Grace S; Khush, Gurdev S; Cassman, Kenneth G

    2004-07-01

    The impact of projected global warming on crop yields has been evaluated by indirect methods using simulation models. Direct studies on the effects of observed climate change on crop growth and yield could provide more accurate information for assessing the impact of climate change on crop production. We analyzed weather data at the International Rice Research Institute Farm from 1979 to 2003 to examine temperature trends and the relationship between rice yield and temperature by using data from irrigated field experiments conducted at the International Rice Research Institute Farm from 1992 to 2003. Here we report that annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures have increased by 0.35 degrees C and 1.13 degrees C, respectively, for the period 1979-2003 and a close linkage between rice grain yield and mean minimum temperature during the dry cropping season (January to April). Grain yield declined by 10% for each 1 degrees C increase in growing-season minimum temperature in the dry season, whereas the effect of maximum temperature on crop yield was insignificant. This report provides a direct evidence of decreased rice yields from increased nighttime temperature associated with global warming.

  5. Tropical drying trends in global warming models and observations.

    PubMed

    Neelin, J D; Münnich, M; Su, H; Meyerson, J E; Holloway, C E

    2006-04-18

    Anthropogenic changes in tropical rainfall are evaluated in a multimodel ensemble of global warming simulations. Major discrepancies on the spatial distribution of these precipitation changes remain in the latest-generation models analyzed here. Despite this uncertainty, we find a number of measures, both global and local, on which reasonable agreement is obtained, notably for the regions of drying trend (negative precipitation anomalies). Models agree on the overall amplitude of the precipitation decreases that occur at the margins of the convective zones, with percent error bars of magnitude similar to those for the tropical warming. Similar agreement is found on a precipitation climate sensitivity defined here and on differential moisture increase inside and outside convection zones, a step in a hypothesized causal path leading to precipitation changes. A measure of local intermodel agreement on significant trends indicates consistent predictions for particular regions. Observed rainfall trends in several data sets show a significant summer drying trend in a main region of intermodel agreement: the Caribbean/Central-American region.

  6. Enhancing Primary School Students' Knowledge about Global Warming and Environmental Attitude Using Climate Change Activities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karpudewan, Mageswary; Roth, Wolff-Michael; Bin Abdullah, Mohd Nor Syahrir

    2015-01-01

    Climate change generally and global warming specifically have become a common feature of the daily news. Due to widespread recognition of the adverse consequences of climate change on human lives, concerted societal effort has been taken to address it (e.g. by means of the science curriculum). This study was designed to test the effect that…

  7. Modification of cirrus clouds to reduce global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitchell, D. L.

    2009-12-01

    Since both greenhouse gases and cirrus clouds strongly affect outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) with no affect or less affect on solar radiation, respectively, an attempt to delay global warming to buy time for emission reduction strategies to work might naturally target cirrus clouds. Cirrus having optical depths < 3.6 cover 13% of the globe and have a net warming effect on climate, with the coldest cirrus having the strongest warming effect. Roughly 2/3 of predicted global warming is due to the feedback effect of water vapor and clouds from an initial greenhouse gas forcing, and a recent study indicates water vapor and clouds in the upper troposphere (UT) have the greatest impact on climate sensitivity (the equilibrium response of global-mean surface temperature to a CO2 doubling). Thus altering UT water vapor and cirrus may be a good strategy for climate engineering. Cirrus cloud coverage is predicted to be sensitive to the ice fall speed which depends on ice crystal size. The higher the cirrus, the greater their impact is on OLR. Thus by changing ice crystal size in the coldest cirrus, OLR and climate might be modified. Fortunately the coldest cirrus have the highest ice supersaturation due to the dominance of homogeneous freezing nucleation. Seeding such cirrus with very efficient heterogeneous ice nuclei should produce larger ice crystals due to vapor competition effects, thus increasing OLR and surface cooling. Preliminary estimates of this global net cloud forcing via GCM simulations are more negative than -2.8 W m-2 and could neutralize the radiative forcing due to a CO2 doubling (3.7 W m-2). This cirrus engineered net forcing is due to (1) reduced cirrus coverage and (2) reduced upper tropospheric water vapor, due to enhanced ice sedimentation. The implementation of this climate engineering could use the airline industry to disperse the seeding material. Commercial airliners typically fly at temperatures between -40 and -60 deg. C (where homogeneous

  8. Comment on "Global genetic change tracks global climate warming in Drosophila subobscura".

    PubMed

    Rodríguez-Trelles, Francisco; Rodríguez, Miguel Angel

    2007-03-16

    Balanyà et al. (Reports, 22 September 2006, p. 1773) build on earlier claims that chromosomal inversion polymorphisms of Drosophila subobscura are rapidly evolving in response to global warming. However, that conclusion is not adequately buttressed by their data, because they overlooked the lag between calendar and climatological dates created by the progressive lengthening of the growing season in their sampling approach.

  9. Global warming, population growth, and natural resources for food production.

    PubMed

    Pimentel, D

    1991-01-01

    Destruction of forests and the considerable burning of fossil fuels is directly causing the level of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases including methane, carbon monoxide, and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere to rise. Population growth in the US and the world indirectly contributes to this global warming. This has led the majority of scientists interested in weather and climate to predict that the planet's temperature will increase from 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius by 2050. These forecasted climactic changes will most likely strongly affect crop production. Specifically these scientists expect the potential changes in temperature, moisture, carbon dioxide, and pests to decrease food production in North America. The degree of changes hinges on each crop and its environmental needs. If farmers begin using improved agricultural technology, the fall in crop yields can be somewhat counterbalanced. Even without global warming, however, agriculture in North America must embrace sensible ecological resource management practices such as conserving soil, water, energy, and biological resources. These sustainable agricultural practices would serve agriculture, farmers, the environment, and society. Agriculturalists, farmers, and society are already interested in sustainable agriculture. Still scientists must conduct more research on the multiple effects of potential global climate change on many different crops under various environmental conditions and on new technologies that farmers might use in agricultural production. We must cut down our consumption of fossil fuel, reduce deforestation, erase poverty, and protect our soil, water, and biological resources. The most important action we need to take, however, is to check population growth. PMID:12344889

  10. Interpretation of simulated global warming using a simple model

    SciTech Connect

    Watterson, I.G.

    2000-01-01

    A simple energy balance model with two parameters, an effective heat capacity and an effective climate sensitivity, is used to interpret six GCM simulations of greenhouse gas-induced global warming. By allowing the parameters to vary in time, the model can be accurately calibrated for each run. It is found that the sensitivity can be approximated as a constant in each case. However, the effective heat capacity clearly varies, and it is important that the energy equation is formulated appropriately, and thus unlike many such models. For simulations with linear forcing and from a cold start, the capacity is in each case close to that of a homogeneous ocean with depth initially 200 m, but increasing some 4.3 m each year, irrespective of the sensitivity and forcing growth rate. Analytic solutions for t his linear capacity function are derived, and these reproduce the GCM runs well, even for cases where the forcing is stabilized after a century or so. The formation of a subsurface maximum in the mean ocean temperature anomaly is a significant feature of such cases. A simple model for a GCM run with a realistic forcing scenario starting from 1,880 is constructed using component results for forcing segments. Given this, an estimate of the cold start error of a simulation of the warming due to forcing after the present would be given by the negative of the temperature drift of the anomaly due to the past forcing. The simple model can evidently be used to give an indication of likely warming curves, at lest for this range of scenarios and GCM sensitivities.

  11. Voluminous Icelandic Basaltic Eruptions Appear To Cause Abrupt Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, P. L.

    2011-12-01

    major sub-glacial eruptions that occurred during DO 0, A, and 1 (11.6, 13.1, and 14.6 ka) and similar but less well dated activity at least over the past million years. Massive melting of a thick ice sheet by volcanoes would decrease overburden pressure on the magma chambers, potentially increasing volcanism. Continued basaltic eruptions over decades enhanced by such a feedback c8ould explain why the intervals between DO events (1300 to 8800 years) are more random than cyclic and the evidence for sudden influxes of fresh water into the North Atlantic documented during DO events. Concentrations of sulfate in Greenland were as high from 1928 to 1985 as during the largest DO event. Trace element analysis shows this sulfate came from smoke stacks in northern Russia, Europe, and central North America. Observed levels of SO2, NO_{x}, tropospheric O$_{3} and black carbon are more than sufficient to have been the primary cause of 20th century global warming. Efforts to reduce acid rain by reducing emissions of these pollutants "accidentally" slowed global warming by 1998. Mean global surface temperatures have remained high but have not increased since then.

  12. 40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global...

  13. 40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global...

  14. 40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global...

  15. Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast. Part A The Greenhouse Effect.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrews, Bill

    1993-01-01

    Provides information necessary for an interdisciplinary analysis of the greenhouse effect, enhanced greenhouse effect, global warming, global climate change, greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, and scientific study of global warming for students grades 4-12. Several activity ideas accompany the information. (LZ)

  16. Ozone Radiative Feedback in Global Warming Simulations with CO2 and non-CO2 Forcings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ponater, M.; Rieger, V.; Dietmüller, S.

    2015-12-01

    It has been found that ozone radiative feedback acts to reduce the climate sensitivity in global warming simulations including interactive atmospheric chemistry, if the radiative forcing origins from CO2 increase. The effect can be traced to a negative feedback from stratospheric ozone changes and it is amplified by a reduced positive feedback from stratospheric water vapor.These findings cannot be simply transferred to simulations in which the warming is driven by a non-CO2 radiative forcing. Using a perturbation of surface NOx and CO emissions as an example, we demonstrate that a tropospheric ozone feedback may have significant impacts on physical feedbacks. These interactions can act to an extent that the effect of a negative ozone feedback can be reversed by changes in other feedbacks, thus increasing the climate sensitivity instead of reducing it. We also address some conceptual issues showing up as chemical feedbacks are added to set of physical feedbacks in simulation with interactive chemistry.

  17. The observed global warming record: what does it tell us?

    PubMed

    Wigley, T M; Jones, P D; Raper, S C

    1997-08-01

    Global, near-surface temperature data sets and their derivations are discussed, and differences between the Jones and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change data sets are explained. Global-mean temperature changes are then interpreted in terms of anthropogenic forcing influences and natural variability. The inclusion of aerosol forcing improves the fit between modeled and observed changes but does not improve the agreement between the implied climate sensitivity value and the standard model-based range of 1.5-4.5 degrees C equilibrium warming for a CO2 doubling. The implied sensitivity goes from below the model-based range of estimates to substantially above this range. The addition of a solar forcing effect further improves the fit and brings the best-fit sensitivity into the middle of the model-based range. Consistency is further improved when internally generated changes are considered. This consistency, however, hides many uncertainties that surround observed data/model comparisons. These uncertainties make it impossible currently to use observed global-scale temperature changes to narrow the uncertainty range in the climate sensitivity below that estimated directly from climate models. PMID:11607739

  18. Is there a stratospheric radiative feedback in global warming simulations?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Yi; Zhang, Minghong; Xia, Yan; Hu, Yongyun; Son, Seok-Woo

    2016-01-01

    The radiative impacts of the stratosphere in global warming simulations are investigated using abrupt CO2 quadrupling experiments of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), with a focus on stratospheric temperature and water vapor. It is found that the stratospheric temperature change has a robust bullhorn-like zonal-mean pattern due to a strengthening of the stratospheric overturning circulation. This temperature change modifies the zonal mean top-of-the-atmosphere energy balance, but the compensation of the regional effects leads to an insignificant global-mean radiative feedback (-0.02 ± 0.04 W m-2 K-1). The stratospheric water vapor concentration generally increases, which leads to a weak positive global-mean radiative feedback (0.02 ± 0.01 W m-2 K-1). The stratospheric moistening is related to mixing of elevated upper-tropospheric humidity, and, to a lesser extent, to change in tropical tropopause temperature. Our results indicate that the strength of the stratospheric water vapor feedback is noticeably larger in high-top models than in low-top ones. The results here indicate that although its radiative impact as a forcing adjustment is significant, the stratosphere makes a minor contribution to the overall climate feedback in CMIP5 models.

  19. Assessing the public health effects of global warming: New and ongoing international efforts

    SciTech Connect

    Patz, J.

    1995-03-01

    The major health outcomes resulting from global warming are expected to occur through alterations in temperature, weather patterns, and sea-level rise. Potential impacts may include increases in heat-related morbidity and mortality, spread of vector-borne diseases, threatened food and fresh water supply, and infrastructural pressures due to extreme weather events and forced human migration. Extensive international coordination will be required both to assess and possibly mitigate these worldwide health ramifications. International organizations have begun to assembly research and monitoring initiatives. CLIMEDAT is a new database sponsored by the World Health Organization to specifically help network international scientists addressing the health-related aspects of global climate change. Under the World Meteorological Organization`s World Climate Program, monitoring systems such as the Global Climate, Global Ocean, and Global Terrestrial Observing Systems are aiding in the global and regional assessment of climate and ecosystem change. The International council of Scientific Unions is encouraging multidisciplinary involvement at several levels; projects include the World Climate Research Program, the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program, the Human Dimensions Program, and Diversitas (which addresses the role of biodiversity change). The mitigating options of reducing greenhouse gas emissions combined with maximizing carbon dioxide sinks will further require full North/South cooperation.

  20. The role of clouds and oceans in global greenhouse warming. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Hoffert, M.I.

    1996-10-01

    This research focuses on assessing connections between anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and global climatic change. it has been supported since the early 1990s in part by the DOE ``Quantitative Links`` Program (QLP). A three-year effort was originally proposed to the QLP to investigate effects f global cloudiness on global climate and its implications for cloud feedback; and to continue the development and application of climate/ocean models, with emphasis on coupled effects of greenhouse warming and feedbacks by clouds and oceans. It is well-known that cloud and ocean processes are major sources of uncertainty in the ability to predict climatic change from humankind`s greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. And it has always been the objective to develop timely and useful analytical tools for addressing real world policy issues stemming from anthropogenic climate change.

  1. Energy conversion of biomass in coping with global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Yokoyama, Shin-ya; Ogi, Tomoko; Minowa, Tomoaki

    1993-12-31

    The main purpose of the present paper is to propose energy conversion technologies of biomass in coping with global warming. Among thermochemical conversion, liquid fuel production by high pressure process is mainly introduced. Biomass is a term used to describe materials of biological origin, either purpose-grown or arising as by-products, residues or wastes from forestry, agriculture and food processing. Such biomass is a renewable energy sources dependent on solar energy. Through photosynthesis, plants converts carbon dioxide into organic materials used in their growth. Energy can be recovered from the plant materials by several processes, the simplest way is burning in air. As far as biomass is used in this way, there is no atmospheric accumulation of carbon dioxide making no effect on the Greenhouse Effect, provided that the cycle of regrowth and burning is sustained.

  2. Geoengineering the Climate: Approaches to Counterbalancing Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MacCracken, M. C.

    2005-12-01

    For the past two hundred years, the inadvertent release of carbon dioxide and other radiatively active gases and aerosols, particularly as a result of combustion of fossil fuels and changes in land cover, have been contributing to global climate change. Global warming to date is approaching 1°C, and this is being accompanied by reduced sea ice, rising sea level, shifting ecosystems and more. Rather than sharply curtailing use of fossil fuels in order to reduce CO2 emissions and eventually eliminate the net human influence on global climate, a number of approaches have been suggested that are intended to advertently modify the climate in a manner to counter-balance the warming influence of greenhouse gas emissions. One general type of approach is carbon sequestration, which focuses on capturing the CO2 and then sequestering it underground or in the ocean. This can be done at the source of emission, by pulling the CO2 out of the atmosphere through some chemical process, or by enhancing the natural processes that remove CO2 from the atmosphere, for example by fertilizing the oceans with iron. A second general approach to geoengineering the climate is to lower the warming influence of the incoming solar radiation by an amount equivalent to the energy captured by the CO2-induced enhancement of the greenhouse effect. Proposals have been made to do this by locating a deflector at the Earth-Sun Lagrange point, lofting many thousands of near-Earth mirrors, injecting aerosols into the stratosphere, or by increasing the surface albedo. A third general approach is to alter natural Earth system processes in ways that would counterbalance the effects of the warming. Among suggested approaches are constructing dams to block various ocean passages, oceanic films to limit evaporation and water vapor feedback, and even, at small scale, to insulate mountain glaciers to prevent melting. Each of these approaches has its advantages, ranging from simplicity to reversibility, and

  3. Cold stress on Russian territory during last global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Vinogradov, V.V.

    1996-12-31

    A great part of Russian territory is characterized by climate discomfort of life. In winter cold stress covers nearly all territory. The purpose of this work is to learn how the climatic discomfort of life is affected by climate change. The effect of global warming for the period 1981--1990 on geographical distribution of bioclimatic indexes by seasons (compared with average figures) is analyzed. Indexes of enthalpy, dry cooling, wind chill, wet cooling, effective temperature, physiological deficit index for monthly average figures were calculated and the data bank for the period 1981--1990 was made up. The indexes of enthalpy, wet cooling, and dry cooling according to Bodman were chosen as the most informative and independent. Maps of the climatic indexes taking into account temperature, humidity and wind speed were made up on the basis of the calculated figures.

  4. A Robust Response of the Hadley Circulation to Global Warming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2014-01-01

    Tropical rainfall is expected to increase in a warmer climate. Yet, recent studies have inferred that the Hadley Circulation (HC), which is primarily driven by latent heating from tropical rainfall, is weakened under global warming. Here, we show evidence of a robust intensification of the HC from analyses of 33 CMIP5 model projections under a scenario of 1 per year CO2 emission increase. The intensification is manifested in a deep-tropics squeeze, characterized by a pronounced increase in the zonal mean ascending motion in the mid and upper troposphere, a deepening and narrowing of the convective zone and enhanced rainfall in the deep tropics. These changes occur in conjunction with a rise in the region of maximum outflow of the HC, with accelerated meridional mass outflow in the uppermost branch of the HC away from the equator, coupled to a weakened inflow in the return branches of the HC in the lower troposphere.

  5. Projecting coral reef futures under global warming and ocean acidification.

    PubMed

    Pandolfi, John M; Connolly, Sean R; Marshall, Dustin J; Cohen, Anne L

    2011-07-22

    Many physiological responses in present-day coral reefs to climate change are interpreted as consistent with the imminent disappearance of modern reefs globally because of annual mass bleaching events, carbonate dissolution, and insufficient time for substantial evolutionary responses. Emerging evidence for variability in the coral calcification response to acidification, geographical variation in bleaching susceptibility and recovery, responses to past climate change, and potential rates of adaptation to rapid warming supports an alternative scenario in which reef degradation occurs with greater temporal and spatial heterogeneity than current projections suggest. Reducing uncertainty in projecting coral reef futures requires improved understanding of past responses to rapid climate change; physiological responses to interacting factors, such as temperature, acidification, and nutrients; and the costs and constraints imposed by acclimation and adaptation.

  6. Global warming due to increasing absorbed solar radiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.

    2009-04-01

    Global climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) are examined for the top-of-atmosphere radiation changes as carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases build up from 1950 to 2100. There is an increase in net radiation absorbed, but not in ways commonly assumed. While there is a large increase in the greenhouse effect from increasing greenhouse gases and water vapor (as a feedback), this is offset to a large degree by a decreasing greenhouse effect from reducing cloud cover and increasing radiative emissions from higher temperatures. Instead the main warming from an energy budget standpoint comes from increases in absorbed solar radiation that stem directly from the decreasing cloud amounts. These findings underscore the need to ascertain the credibility of the model changes, especially insofar as changes in clouds are concerned.

  7. More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haarsma, Reindert; Hazeleger, Wilco; Severijns, Camiel; de Vries, Hylke; Ster, Andreas; Bintanja, Richard; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; van den Brink, Henk; Baatsen, Michiel

    2014-05-01

    Using a very high resolution global climate model (~25 km grid size) with prescribed sea surface temperatures we have investigated the change in the occurrence of hurricane-force (> 32.6 m/s) storms over Western Europe due to climate change. The results show a large increase during early autumn (Aug-Oct). The majority of these storms originate as a tropical cyclone. Using SST sensitivity experiments we have tested the hypothesis that the increase is due to the rise in Atlantic tropical SST thereby extending eastwards the breeding ground of tropical cyclones, yielding more frequent and intense hurricanes following pathways directed towards Europe. En route they transform into extra-tropical depressions and re-intensify after merging with the mid-latitude baroclinic unstable flow. Detailed analysis indicates that the development of a warm seclusion is the main mechanism for the re-intensification and that the hurricane winds are caused by a sting jet.

  8. Predicting the global warming potential of agro-ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehuger, S.; Gabrielle, B.; Larmanou, E.; Laville, P.; Cellier, P.; Loubet, B.

    2007-04-01

    Nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and methane are the main biogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) contributing to the global warming potential (GWP) of agro-ecosystems. Evaluating the impact of agriculture on climate thus requires a capacity to predict the net exchanges of these gases in an integrated manner, as related to environmental conditions and crop management. Here, we used two year-round data sets from two intensively-monitored cropping systems in northern France to test the ability of the biophysical crop model CERES-EGC to simulate GHG exchanges at the plot-scale. The experiments involved maize and rapeseed crops on a loam and rendzina soils, respectively. The model was subsequently extrapolated to predict CO2 and N2O fluxes over an entire crop rotation. Indirect emissions (IE) arising from the production of agricultural inputs and from cropping operations were also added to the final GWP. One experimental site (involving a wheat-maize-barley rotation on a loamy soil) was a net source of GHG with a GWP of 350 kg CO2-C eq ha-1 yr-1, of which 75% were due to IE and 25% to direct N2O emissions. The other site (involving an oilseed rape-wheat-barley rotation on a rendzina) was a net sink of GHG for -250 kg CO2-C eq ha-1 yr-1, mainly due to a higher predicted C sequestration potential and C return from crops. Such modelling approach makes it possible to test various agronomic management scenarios, in order to design productive agro-ecosystems with low global warming impact.

  9. Does flower phenology mirror the slowdown of global warming?

    PubMed Central

    Jochner, Susanne; Menzel, Annette

    2015-01-01

    Although recent global warming trends in air temperature are not as pronounced as those observed only one decade ago, global mean temperature is still at a very high level. Does plant phenology – which is believed to be a suitable indicator of climate change – respond in a similar way, that is, does it still mirror recent temperature variations? We explored in detail long-term flowering onset dates of snowdrop, cherry, and lime tree and relevant spring temperatures at three sites in Germany (1901–2012) using the Bayesian multiple change-point approach. We investigated whether mean spring temperature changes were amplified or slowed down in the past decade and how plant phenology responded to the most recent temperature changes. Incorporating records with different end points (i.e., 2002 and 2012), we compared differences in trends and inferred possible differences caused by extrapolating phenological and meteorological data. The new multiple-change point approach is characterized by an enhanced structure and greater flexibility compared to the one change point model. However, the highest model probabilities for phenological (meteorological) records were still obtained for the one change point (linear) model. Marked warming trends in the recent decade were only revealed for mean temperatures of March to May, here better described with one or two change point models. In the majority of cases analyzed, changes in temperatures were well mirrored by phenological changes. However, temperatures in March to May were linked to less strongly advancing onset dates for lime tree flowering during the period 1901-2012, pointing to the likely influence of photoperiodic constraints or unfulfilled chilling requirements. Due to the slowdown of temperature increase, analyses conducted on records ending in 2002 demonstrated distinct differences when compared with records ending in 2012. Extrapolation of trends could therefore (along with the choice of the statistical method

  10. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections.

    PubMed

    Shiogama, H; Stone, D; Emori, S; Takahashi, K; Mori, S; Maeda, A; Ishizaki, Y; Allen, M R

    2016-01-11

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.

  11. Ozone depletion and global warming potentials of CF3I

    SciTech Connect

    Solomon, S.; Burkholder, J.B.; Ravishankara, A.R.; Garcia, R.R. |

    1994-10-01

    Laboratory measurements of the infrared and near-ultraviolet absorption characteristics of CF3I (a potentially useful substitute for halons) are presented. Using these data together with a detailed photochemical model, it is shown that the lifetime of this gas in the sunlit atmosphere is less than a day. The chemistry of iodine in the stratosphere is evaluated, and it is shown that any iodine that reaches the stratosphere will be very effective for ozone destruction there. However, the extremely short lifetime of CF3I greatly limits its transport to the stratosphere when released at the surface, especially at midlatitudes, and the total anthropogenic surface release of CF3I is likely to be far less than that of natural iodocarbons such as CH3I on a global basis. It is highly probable that the steady-state ozone depletion potential (ODP) of CF3I for surface releases is less than 0.008 and more likely below 0.0001. Measured infrared absorption data are also combined with the lifetime to show that the 20-year global warming potential (GWP) of this gas is likely to be very small, less than 5. Therefore, this study suggests that neither the ODP nor the GWP of this gas represent significant obstacles to its use as a replacement for halons.

  12. Global Warming and Food Insecurity in Rural Latin America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byrne, T. R.; Byrne, J. M.; McDaniel, S.

    2012-12-01

    Food insecurity is one of the most important challenges facing humanity in the 21st century - a challenge that will be further exacerbated by the changing climate. The effects of human induced climate change will be most disproportionate and severe in the developing world, where a stable food supply, decreased purchasing power, and adequate nutrition are often already a daily struggle. This study will build on work done by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (UN), and will assess how vulnerability to household food insecurity will be affected by global warming in various rural parts of Latin America. Temperature data from downscaled Global Circulation Models (GCM) will be used in conjunction with the results of national household surveys to generate information on each rural farming household's probability of falling below a food poverty threshold in the near future. The results of the study will allow us to distinguish between households that are likely to experience chronic food insecurity and those that are likely to experience transitory food insecurity, permitting for improved targeting of policy responses.

  13. Slowing global warming: benefits for patients and the planet.

    PubMed

    Parker, Cindy L

    2011-08-01

    Global warming will cause significant harm to the health of persons and their communities by compromising food and water supplies; increasing risks of morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases and heat stress; changing social determinants of health resulting from extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and expanding flood plains; and worsening air quality, resulting in additional morbidity and mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Vulnerable populations such as children, older persons, persons living at or below the poverty level, and minorities will be affected earliest and greatest, but everyone likely will be affected at some point. Family physicians can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, stabilize the climate, and reduce the risks of climate change while also directly improving the health of their patients. Health interventions that have a beneficial effect on climate change include encouraging patients to reduce the amount of red meat in their diets and to replace some vehicular transportation with walking or bicycling. Patients are more likely to make such lifestyle changes if their physician asks them to and leads by example. Medical offices and hospitals can become more energy efficient by recycling, purchasing wind-generated electricity, and turning off appliances, computers, and lights when not in use. Moreover, physicians can play an important role in improving air quality and reducing greenhouse gas emissions by advocating for enforcement of existing air quality regulations and working with local and national policy makers to further improve air quality standards, thereby improving the health of their patients and slowing global climate change.

  14. Slowing global warming: benefits for patients and the planet.

    PubMed

    Parker, Cindy L

    2011-08-01

    Global warming will cause significant harm to the health of persons and their communities by compromising food and water supplies; increasing risks of morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases and heat stress; changing social determinants of health resulting from extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and expanding flood plains; and worsening air quality, resulting in additional morbidity and mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Vulnerable populations such as children, older persons, persons living at or below the poverty level, and minorities will be affected earliest and greatest, but everyone likely will be affected at some point. Family physicians can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, stabilize the climate, and reduce the risks of climate change while also directly improving the health of their patients. Health interventions that have a beneficial effect on climate change include encouraging patients to reduce the amount of red meat in their diets and to replace some vehicular transportation with walking or bicycling. Patients are more likely to make such lifestyle changes if their physician asks them to and leads by example. Medical offices and hospitals can become more energy efficient by recycling, purchasing wind-generated electricity, and turning off appliances, computers, and lights when not in use. Moreover, physicians can play an important role in improving air quality and reducing greenhouse gas emissions by advocating for enforcement of existing air quality regulations and working with local and national policy makers to further improve air quality standards, thereby improving the health of their patients and slowing global climate change. PMID:21842773

  15. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Mori, S.; Maeda, A.; Ishizaki, Y.; Allen, M. R.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by “current knowledge” of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.

  16. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections.

    PubMed

    Shiogama, H; Stone, D; Emori, S; Takahashi, K; Mori, S; Maeda, A; Ishizaki, Y; Allen, M R

    2016-01-01

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change. PMID:26750491

  17. Alpine proglacial suspended sediment dynamics in warm and cool ablation seasons: Implications for global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stott, Tim; Mount, Nick

    2007-01-01

    monthly regional air temperature increase of ˜2.0 °C over most of the 2003 ablation season. The 2003 SSL record, compared with 2004, can be used to gain an insight into the impact of higher air temperatures resulting from global warming on SSL. Such changes in SSLs have important implications for sediment transfer from mountain to piedmont zones, for stream ecology, for downstream channel stability and flood risk, and for the hydro-electric industry.

  18. River Runoff Sensitivity in Eastern Siberia to Global Climate Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgiadi, A. G.; Milyukova, I. P.; Kashutina, E.

    2008-12-01

    During several last decades significant climate warming is observed in permafrost regions of Eastern Siberia. These changes include rise of air temperature as well as precipitation. Changes in regional climate are accompanied with river runoff changes. The analysis of the data shows that in the past 25 years, the largest contribution to the annual river runoff increase in the lower reaches of the Lena (Kyusyur) is made (in descending order) by the Lena river watershed (above Tabaga), the Aldan river (Okhotsky Perevoz), and the Vilyui river (Khatyryk-Khomo). The similar relation is also retained in the case of flood, with the seasonal river runoff of the Vilyui river being slightly decreased. Completely different relations are noted in winter, when a substantial river runoff increase is recorded in the lower reaches of the Lena river. In this case the major contribution to the winter river runoff increase in the Lena outlet is made by the winter river runoff increase on the Vilyui river. Unlike the above cases, the summer-fall river runoff in the lower reaches of the Lena river tends to decrease, which is similar to the trend exhibited by the Vilyui river. At the same time, the river runoff of the Lena (Tabaga) and Aldan (Verkhoyansky Perevoz) rivers increase. According to the results of hydrological modeling the expected anthropogenic climate warming in XXI century can bring more significant river runoff increase in the Lena river basin as compared with the recent one. Hydrological responses to climate warming have been evaluated for the plain part of the Lena river basin basing on a macroscale hydrological model featuring simplified description of processes developed in Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Two atmosphere-ocean global circulation models included in the IPCC (ECHAM4/OPY3 and GFDL-R30) were used as scenarios of future global climate. According to the results of hydrological modeling the expected anthropogenic climate warming in

  19. Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming.

    PubMed

    Koven, Charles D; Ringeval, Bruno; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Ciais, Philippe; Cadule, Patricia; Khvorostyanov, Dmitry; Krinner, Gerhard; Tarnocai, Charles

    2011-09-01

    Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers, and CH(4) emissions from flooded areas, and which better matches new circumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks, to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO(2) by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100, the model response to combined CO(2) fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source, depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero, which is within the range of previous model estimates, to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85 + -16 Pg C, depending on processes included in the model, with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH(4)/y to 41-70 Tg CH(4)/y, with increases due to CO(2) fertilization, permafrost thaw, and warming-induced increased CH(4) flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent.

  20. Shifting terrestrial feedbacks from CO2 fertilization to global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peñuelas, Josep; Ciais, Philippe; Janssens, Ivan; Canadell, Josep; Obersteiner, Michael; Piao, Shilong; Vautard, Robert; Sardans Jordi Sardans, Jordi

    2016-04-01

    Humans are increasingly fertilizing the planet. Our activities are increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, nitrogen inputs to ecosystems and global temperatures. Individually and combined, they lead to biospheric availability of carbon and nitrogen, enhanced metabolic activity, and longer growing seasons. Plants can consequently grow more and take up more carbon that can be stored in ecosystem carbon pools, thus enhancing carbon sinks for atmospheric CO2. Data on the increased strength of carbon sinks are, however, inconclusive: Some data (eddy covariance, short-term experiments on elevated CO2 and nutrient fertilization) suggest that biospheric carbon uptake is already effectively increasing but some other data suggest it is not, or are not general and conclusive (tree-ring, forest inventory). The combined land-ocean CO2 sink flux per unit of excess atmospheric CO2 above preindustrial levels declined over 1959-2012 by a factor of about 1/3, implying that CO2 sinks increased more slowly than excess CO2. We will discuss the available data, and the discussion will drive us to revisit our projections for enhanced carbon sinks. We will reconsider the performance of the modulators of increased carbon uptake in a CO2 fertilized and warmed world: nutrients, climate, land use and pollution. Nutrient availability in particular plays a crucial role. A simple mass-balance approach indicates that limited phosphorus availability and the corresponding N:P imbalances can jointly reduce the projected future carbon storage by natural ecosystems during this century. We then present a new paradigm: we are shifting from a fertilization to a warming era. Compared to the historical period, future impacts of warming will be larger than the benefits of CO2 fertilization given nutrient limitations, management and disturbance (which reduces C stocks and thus sequestration potential) and because CO2 will decrease by 2050 in RCP2.6, meaning loss of CO2 fertilization, and CO2

  1. MIT Study Sees Nuclear Power as Green Weapon Against Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dawson, Jim

    2003-12-01

    Although the public doesn't yet view nuclear power as a way to mitigate global warming, an MIT study says a global tripling of nuclear power generation could avoid nearly 2 billion tonnes of carbon emissions annually.

  2. Global Warming: A Science Overview for the A/C Industry

    SciTech Connect

    MacCracken, M.C.

    1999-12-06

    Fossil fuels (i.e., coal, oil, and natural gas) provide about 85% of the world's energy, sustaining our standard-of-living. They are inexpensive, transportable, safe, and relatively abundant. At the same time, their use contributes to problems such as air quality and acid rain that are being addressed through various control efforts and to the problem of global warming, which is now being considered by governments of the world. This talk will focus on six key aspects of the scientific findings that are leading to proposals for significant limitation of the emissions of fossil-fuel-derived carbon dioxide and limitations on emissions of other greenhouse gases that can influence the global climate, including substances used in the refrigeration and air-conditioning industries.

  3. Global Warming Responses at the Primary Secondary Interface: 2. Potential Effectiveness of Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skamp, Keith; Boyes, Eddie; Stannistreet, Martin

    2009-01-01

    In an earlier paper (Skamp, Boyes, & Stanisstreet, 2009b), students' beliefs and willingness to act in relation to 16 specific actions related to global warming were compared across the primary secondary interface. More primary students believed in the effectiveness of most actions to reduce global warming and were willing to take those actions.…

  4. Presenting Global Warming and Evolution as Public Health Issues to Encourage Acceptance of Scientific Evidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stover, Shawn K.; McArthur, Laurence B.; Mabry, Michelle L.

    2013-01-01

    Although evidence supporting anthropogenic global warming and evolution by natural selection is considerable, the public does not embrace these concepts. The current study explores the hypothesis that individuals will become more receptive to scientific viewpoints if evidence for evolution and implications of global warming are presented as issues…

  5. Metaphors of Primary School Students Relating to the Concept of Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dogru, Mustafa; Sarac, Esra

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to reveal the metaphors of primary school students (n = 362) relating to the concept of global warming. Data collected by completing the expression of "global warming is like..., because..." of the students were analysed by use of qualitative and quantitative data analysis techniques. According to findings of…

  6. A New Type of Debate for Global Warming and Scientific Literacy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gautier, Catherine

    2012-01-01

    Expanding on some ideas introduced in the paper by Albe and Gombert (2012) "Students' communication, argumentation and knowledge in a citizen' conference on global warming", I explore two issues relevant to their work: global warming (GW) as a socioscientific controversy and scientific literacy in regards to climate change science. For the first…

  7. Senior Secondary Indian Students' Views about Global Warming, and Their Implications for Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chhokar, Kiran; Dua, Shweta; Taylor, Neil; Boyes, Edward; Stanisstreet, Martin

    2012-01-01

    For individuals to make informed lifestyle choices that may help to reduce global warming, they need some understanding of this phenomenon and the factors that contribute to it. However, there is a "gap" between knowledge about global warming and willingness to take personal action. So, although education may be effective in enhancing student…

  8. Global Warming Responses at the Primary Secondary Interface: 1. Students' Beliefs and Willingness to Act

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skamp, Keith; Boyes, Eddie; Stannistreet, Martin

    2009-01-01

    Using survey methodology, students' beliefs, and willingness to act, about 16 specific actions related to global warming are compared across the primary secondary interface. More primary students believed in the effectiveness of most actions to reduce global warming and were willing to take those actions. In general there was a disparity between…

  9. Using Interactive Technology to Support Students' Understanding of the Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Varma, Keisha; Linn, Marcia C.

    2012-01-01

    In this work, we examine middle school students' understanding of the greenhouse effect and global warming. We designed and refined a technology-enhanced curriculum module called "Global Warming: Virtual Earth". In the module activities, students conduct virtual experiments with a visualization of the greenhouse effect. They analyze data and draw…

  10. The Understandings of Global Warming and Learning Styles: A Phenomenographic Analysis of Prospective Primary School Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Demirkaya, Hilmi

    2008-01-01

    In this study, statements by prospective primary school teachers such as "I think the word global warming ..." or "I think the term global warming means ..." were analyzed by using qualitative phenomenographic research methods. 142 female (48.3%) and 152 male (51.7%) primary school teacher candidates (n = 294) participated in the study. Moreover,…

  11. CO2 [Carbon Dioxide] Diet for a Greenhouse Planet: A Citizen's Guide for Slowing Global Warming.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeCicco, John; And Others

    This guide discusses the global warming issue and offers a plan to facilitate a decrease in the emissions of the major greenhouse gases in the United States, including those under the control of individual citizens. A letter from the organization's president describes its involvement with the global warming issue. A brief overview presented in the…

  12. Apocalypse soon? Dire messages reduce belief in global warming by contradicting just-world beliefs.

    PubMed

    Feinberg, Matthew; Willer, Robb

    2011-01-01

    Though scientific evidence for the existence of global warming continues to mount, in the United States and other countries belief in global warming has stagnated or even decreased in recent years. One possible explanation for this pattern is that information about the potentially dire consequences of global warming threatens deeply held beliefs that the world is just, orderly, and stable. Individuals overcome this threat by denying or discounting the existence of global warming, and this process ultimately results in decreased willingness to counteract climate change. Two experiments provide support for this explanation of the dynamics of belief in global warming, suggesting that less dire messaging could be more effective for promoting public understanding of climate-change research.

  13. An attack on science? Media use, trust in scientists, and perceptions of global warming.

    PubMed

    Hmielowski, Jay D; Feldman, Lauren; Myers, Teresa A; Leiserowitz, Anthony; Maibach, Edward

    2014-10-01

    There is a growing divide in how conservatives and liberals in the USA understand the issue of global warming. Prior research suggests that the American public's reliance on partisan media contributes to this gap. However, researchers have yet to identify intervening variables to explain the relationship between media use and public opinion about global warming. Several studies have shown that trust in scientists is an important heuristic many people use when reporting their opinions on science-related topics. Using within-subject panel data from a nationally representative sample of Americans, this study finds that trust in scientists mediates the effect of news media use on perceptions of global warming. Results demonstrate that conservative media use decreases trust in scientists which, in turn, decreases certainty that global warming is happening. By contrast, use of non-conservative media increases trust in scientists, which, in turn, increases certainty that global warming is happening.

  14. Trends in global warming and evolution of nucleoproteins from influenza A viruses since 1918.

    PubMed

    Yan, S; Wu, G

    2010-12-01

    Global warming affects not only the environment where we live, but also all living species to different degree, including influenza A virus. We recently conducted several studies on the possible impact of global warming on the protein families of influenza A virus. More studies are needed in order to have a full picture of the impact of global warming on living organisms, especially its effect on viruses. In this study, we correlate trends in global warming with evolution of the nucleoprotein from influenza A virus and then analyse the trends with respect to northern/southern hemispheres, virus subtypes and sampling species. The results suggest that global warming may have an impact on the evolution of the nucleoprotein from influenza A virus.

  15. Apocalypse soon? Dire messages reduce belief in global warming by contradicting just-world beliefs.

    PubMed

    Feinberg, Matthew; Willer, Robb

    2011-01-01

    Though scientific evidence for the existence of global warming continues to mount, in the United States and other countries belief in global warming has stagnated or even decreased in recent years. One possible explanation for this pattern is that information about the potentially dire consequences of global warming threatens deeply held beliefs that the world is just, orderly, and stable. Individuals overcome this threat by denying or discounting the existence of global warming, and this process ultimately results in decreased willingness to counteract climate change. Two experiments provide support for this explanation of the dynamics of belief in global warming, suggesting that less dire messaging could be more effective for promoting public understanding of climate-change research. PMID:21148457

  16. An attack on science? Media use, trust in scientists, and perceptions of global warming.

    PubMed

    Hmielowski, Jay D; Feldman, Lauren; Myers, Teresa A; Leiserowitz, Anthony; Maibach, Edward

    2014-10-01

    There is a growing divide in how conservatives and liberals in the USA understand the issue of global warming. Prior research suggests that the American public's reliance on partisan media contributes to this gap. However, researchers have yet to identify intervening variables to explain the relationship between media use and public opinion about global warming. Several studies have shown that trust in scientists is an important heuristic many people use when reporting their opinions on science-related topics. Using within-subject panel data from a nationally representative sample of Americans, this study finds that trust in scientists mediates the effect of news media use on perceptions of global warming. Results demonstrate that conservative media use decreases trust in scientists which, in turn, decreases certainty that global warming is happening. By contrast, use of non-conservative media increases trust in scientists, which, in turn, increases certainty that global warming is happening. PMID:23825287

  17. Perfluorodecalin: global warming potential and first detection in the atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shine, Keith P.; Gohar, Laila K.; Hurley, Michael D.; Marston, George; Martin, Damian; Simmonds, Peter G.; Wallington, Timothy J.; Watkins, Matt

    Perfluorodecalin (C 10F 18) has a range of medical uses that have led to small releases. Recently, it has been proposed as a carrier of vaccines, which could lead to significantly larger emissions. Since its emissions are controlled under the Kyoto Protocol, it is important that values for the global warming potential (GWP) are available. For a 50:50 mixture of the two isomers of perfluorodecalin, laboratory measurements, supplemented by theoretical calculations, give an integrated absorption cross-section of 3.91×10 -16 cm 2 molecule -1 cm -1 over the spectral region 0-1500 cm -1; calculations yield a radiative efficiency of 0.56 W m -2 ppbv -1 and a 100-year GWP, relative to carbon dioxide, of 7200 assuming a lifetime of 1000 years. We report the first atmospheric measurements of perfluorodecalin, at Bristol, UK and Mace Head, Ireland, where volume mixing ratios are about 1.5×10 -15. At these concentrations, it makes a trivial contribution to climate change, but on a per molecule basis it is a potent greenhouse gas, indicating the need for careful assessment of its possible future usage.

  18. Valuation of mountain glaciation response on global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Ananicheva, M.D.; Davidovich, N.V.

    1997-12-31

    Quantitative estimates of main climatic parameters, influencing the glacier regime (summer air temperature and annual solid precipitation), and glaciologic characteristics (mass balance components, equilibrium line altitude and rate of air temperature at this height), received on the basis of the scenario for a climate development according to R. Wetherald and S. Manabe (1982) are submitted. The possible reaction of mountain glaciation on global warming is considered for two mountain countries: South-eastern Alaska and Pamir-Alay (Central Asia). In given paper we have tried to evaluate changes of the mountain glaciation regime for a time of CO{sub 2} doubling in the atmosphere, basing on the scenario of climate development and modern statistical relationships between climatic and glaciologic parameters. The GCM scenario of R. Wetherald and C. Manabe (GFDL model) which is made with respect of mountain territories is in the basis our calculations. As initial materials we used data of long-term observations and the maps of World Atlas of Snow and Ice Resources (WASIR).

  19. Potential effects of global warming on calving caribou

    SciTech Connect

    Eastland, W.G.; White, R.G.

    1992-03-01

    Calving grounds of barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are often in the portion of their range that remains covered by snow late into spring. The authors propose that global warming would alter the duration of snow cover on the calving grounds and the rate of snowmelt, and thus affect caribou population dynamics. The rationale for this hypothesis is based upon the following arguments. For females of the Porcupine Herd, one of the few forages available before and during early calving are the inflorescences of cotton grass (Eriophorum vaginatum), which are very digestible, high in nitrogen and phosphorus, and low in phenols and acid-detergent fiber. The nutritional levels of the inflorescences are highest in the early stages of phenology and decline rapidly until they are lowest at seed set, about 2 weeks after being exposed from snow cover. The high nutritional level of cotton grass inflorescences is important to post-paturient caribou attempting to meet nutritional requirements of lactation while minimizing associated weight loss. The pattern of weight regain in summer is important to herd productivity as female body weight at mating influences conception in late summer and calving success in spring. Therefore, temporal changes in snowmelt may have major effects on nutritional regimes of the female.

  20. Global warming presents new challenges for maize pest management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Krupke, Christian H.; White, Michael A.; Alexander, Corinne E.

    2008-10-01

    It has been conjectured that global warming will increase the prevalence of insect pests in many agro-ecosystems. In this paper, we quantitatively assess four of the key pests of maize, one of the most important systems in North American grain production. Using empirically generated estimates of pest overwintering thresholds and degree-day requirements, along with climate change projections from a high-resolution climate model, we project potential future ranges for each of these pests in the United States. Our analysis suggests the possibility of increased winter survival and greater degree-day accumulations for each of the pests surveyed. We find that relaxed cold limitation could expand the range of all four pest taxa, including a substantial range expansion in the case of corn earworm (H. zea), a migratory, cold-intolerant pest. Because the corn earworm is a cosmopolitan pest that has shown resistance to insecticides, our results suggest that this expansion could also threaten other crops, including those in high-value areas of the western United States. Because managing significant additional pressure from this suite of established pests would require additional pest management inputs, the projected decreases in cold limitation and increases in heat accumulation have the potential to significantly alter the pest management landscape for North American maize production. Further, these range expansions could have substantial economic impacts through increased seed and insecticide costs, decreased yields, and the downstream effects of changes in crop yield variability.

  1. Is increased Nuclear Energy a practical response to Global Warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stevens, Jeanne

    2007-05-01

    With the threat of global warming there has been renewed interest in nuclear energy as a carbon-free energy source. There are currently 15 nuclear power plants planned for completion in the U.S. by 2014. In the last 30 years, however, investment and public support for nuclear energy has been minimal. Some factors that led to this loss of interest - high economic costs, risk of accident and radiation exposure, and the challenges of storing nuclear waste - have been analyzed in several recent publications. Comparing the costs and risks of nuclear energy to the benefits in reduced carbon emissions is the goal of this report. Coal plants contribute the most carbon dioxide of all types of power plants. The method of this study is a direct comparison of coal plants and nuclear plants in four areas: the current cost per kWh, the predicted annual cost for health issues, the statistically predicted deaths, and the clean-up costs assuming each facility is as ``green'' as possible. A normalized cost/risk value is then calculated for each plant type. Discussion for how these values are likely to vary is included. To cite this abstract, use the following reference: http://meetings.aps.org/link/BAPS.2007.NWS07.C1.11

  2. Response of a temperate demersal fish community to global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Punzón, A.; Serrano, A.; Sánchez, F.; Velasco, F.; Preciado, I.; González-Irusta, J. M.; López-López, L.

    2016-09-01

    Changes in the distribution of the demersal fish species have been identified in north-European Atlantic waters. The consequence of these changes has been a northward shift of the distribution limits and changes in richness. In this study a notable increase in demersal fish species richness per sampling station was detected in the southern Bay of Biscay. This rise was due to an increase in frequency of occurrence and abundance of the majority of fish species in the area (53% from the total species). A fisheries relate explanation was discarded because the mismatch between the changes in the fishing effort and the augment in frequency of occurrence and abundance. On the contrary, these changes are in agreement with expected response under the increasing temperature of the sea observed over the last three decades, associated to global warming. These changes were positively correlated with an increase in temperature of intermediate waters in the study area. In addition, some of these species showed a notable western displacements of the Centre of Gravity in the study area, which would be expected if temperate water species would be favoured by an increase in water temperature. Our results are consistent with studies in the North Sea, where many of these species showing widened distribution limits towards north. The analysis of the results shows that the studied ecosystem, the Bay of Biscay is under a meridionalization process. On the other hand, only one tropicalization event (Lepidotrigla dieuzeidei), was recorded, maybe due to the conservative restrictions applied in species selection.

  3. Global warming and effects on the Arctic fox.

    PubMed

    Fuglei, Eva; Ims, Rolf Anker

    2008-01-01

    We predict the effect of global warming on the arctic fox, the only endemic terrestrial predatory mammals in the arctic region. We emphasize the difference between coastal and inland arctic fox populations. Inland foxes rely on peak abundance of lemming prey to sustain viable populations. In the short-term, warmer winters result in missed lemming peak years and reduced opportunities for successful arctic fox breeding. In the long-term, however, warmer climate will increase plant productivity and more herbivore prey for competitive dominant predators moving in from the south. The red fox has already intruded the arctic region and caused a retreat of the southern limit of arctic fox distribution range. Coastal arctic foxes, which rely on the richer and temporally stable marine subsidies, will be less prone to climate-induced resource limitations. Indeed, arctic islands, becoming protected from southern species invasions as the extent of sea ice is decreasing, may become the last refuges for coastal populations of Arctic foxes. PMID:18717368

  4. The tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

    2016-09-01

    Global mean surface temperature change over the past 120 years resembles a rising staircase: the overall warming trend was interrupted by the mid-twentieth-century big hiatus and the warming slowdown since about 1998. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation has been implicated in modulations of global mean surface temperatures, but which part of the mode drives the variability in warming rates is unclear. Here we present a successful simulation of the global warming staircase since 1900 with a global ocean-atmosphere coupled model where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are forced to follow the observed evolution. Without prescribed tropical Pacific variability, the same model, on average, produces a continual warming trend that accelerates after the 1960s. We identify four events where the tropical Pacific decadal cooling markedly slowed down the warming trend. Matching the observed spatial and seasonal fingerprints we identify the tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the warming staircase, with radiative forcing driving the overall warming trend. Specifically, tropical Pacific variability amplifies the first warming epoch of the 1910s-1940s and determines the timing when the big hiatus starts and ends. Our method of removing internal variability from the observed record can be used for real-time monitoring of anthropogenic warming.

  5. Toward a critical anthropology on the impact of global warming on health and human societies.

    PubMed

    Baer, Hans A

    2008-01-01

    This op-ed essay urges medical anthropologists to join a growing number of public health scholars to examine the impact of global warming on health. Adopting a critical medical anthropology perspective, I argue that global warming is yet another manifestation of the contradictions of the capitalist world system. Ultimately, an serious effort to mitigate the impact of global warming not only on health but also settlement patterns and subsistence will require the creation of a new global political economy based upon social parity, democratic processes, and environmental sustainability.

  6. Cool Roofs to Save Money and Delay Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenfeld, Arthur

    2006-04-01

    White roofs, and now cool-colored roofs, with a high reflectivity or `albedo' have a long history (best known around the Mediterranean) of keeping buildings and cities cool. In modern times, cool roofs have been shown to reduce air conditioning (a-c) demand and slow the formation of ozone (smog). Studies establishing a typical 10% reduction in a-c demand and electricity savings due to white roofs in California (CA) resulted in the 2005 CA new building energy efficiency standard prescribing that low-slope roofs be white, but exempting sloping roofs for aesthetic reasons. The advent (thanks to physicists' efforts) of inexpensive colored pigments with high albedo has led to 2008 CA standards requiring that even sloping roofs be cool. Here, I show that cooling the planet by reducing urban albedo through white and other cool roofs is a direct effect, much larger and immediate than the 2nd-order cooling from reduced CO2 from reduced a-c use. I then investigate widespread deployment of cool roof in major tropical and temperate cities, which cover 2% of global land area and have a proportionately higher albedo impact due to lower latitude. Here, cool roofs and cooler pavements can raise urban albedo by 10%. This directly drops the global average temperature by ˜0.05 /deg C. Though small compared to a likely 3 /deg C rise by 2060, an immediate drop of 0.05 /deg C represents a reprieve in global warming of 1 year, and represents avoiding a year's current annual world emissions of CO2, i.e. 25 GT(CO2). At a trading price of 25/tCO2, this is worth ˜625B. Cooling the planet also could save annually hundreds of billions on a-c electric bills. Finally I suggest policies to increase cool roof deployment, for example, developed world Kyoto signatories could use its CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) for cool roof programs in developing countries.

  7. U.S. commitments and responsibilities to reduce global warmings: Contributions of state-level policies and programs

    SciTech Connect

    Wilt, C.A.; Feldman, D.L.

    1995-12-01

    Global warming is one of the most contentious and complex environmental issues confronting scientists and public policy makers. The scope and potential impacts of global warming are immense, affecting virtually all natural processes at many levels, including coastal zone erosion, estuarine habitat, forests, and agriculture. We hypothesize that managing the natural and societal impacts of global warming, including the costs of its management, abatement, and adaptation, requires not only the cooperation of international agencies and national government, but of individual states and provinces as well. There has been a considerable increase in state-level activity to reduce global warming in the United States, but there has been little assessment of its extent or state motivations. This paper will provide an overview of possible U.S. states` commitments and responsibilities under international treaties and agreements, as well as national policy decrees such as the Clinton Administrations` Climate Change Action Plan. A review of current states` activities with brief case studies of the more progressive state programs (Connecticut, Iowa, California, Missouri, Oregon), their achievements, and their significance. We focus upon federally-mandated global change activities imposed upon states (e.g., national regulations to conserve energy or reduce emissions) and state-motivated policies not required by any national regulation (e.g., land use, transportation, regional planning policies with impacts on global change.) The latter policies may be aimed specifically at global warming prevention or mitigation or they may be incidental, beneficial by-products of policies intended for other purposes--so called `no regrets` policies. We compare the performance of state policies in these two categories in order to ascertain their relative effectiveness and promise for addressing climate change problems.

  8. Accelerated global warming after 1998 is caused by decrease in terrestrial evapotranspiration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiu, GuoYu; Yang, Bing

    2016-04-01

    Over the last 50 years, the global temperature has increased an average of 0.180K per decade. However, the increase has accelerated since 1998 at a rate of 0.334K per decade. No satisfactory explanation has been offered by any past research concerning the accelerated global warming after 1998. In this hypothesis-driven study, we proposed that accelerated global warming since 1998 is mainly caused by a significant reduction of global terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET). This is because global annual terrestrial ET increased on average by 7.1 mm per year per decade between 1982 and 1997 and has decreased on average by 7.9 mm per year per decade since 1998. To verify this hypothesis, we analyzed terrestrial ET energy consumption data and the effects of terrestrial ET change on global warming. Results show that the global warming rate by including the effect of terrestrial ET reduction is 0.349K per decade, which is very close to the observed global warming rate of 0.334K per decade. Our study also shows that global warming can be alleviated by increasing terrestrial ET. The global temperature can be reduced by 0.129K per decade by increasing 1 W/m2, which can be achieved by a combination of land use management measures (such as increasing natural vegetation rehabilitation, crop land irrigation) and appropriate water management for biofuel production.

  9. Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

    2016-03-22

    Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves.

  10. Snow: a reliable indicator for global warming in the future?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobi, H.-W.

    2012-03-01

    The cryosphere consists of water in the solid form at the Earth's surface and includes, among others, snow, sea ice, glaciers and ice sheets. Since the 1990s the cryosphere and its components have often been considered as indicators of global warming because rising temperatures can enhance the melting of solid water (e.g. Barry et al 1993, Goodison and Walker 1993, Armstrong and Brun 2008). Changes in the cryosphere are often easier to recognize than a global temperature rise of a couple of degrees: many locals and tourists have hands-on experience in changes in the extent of glaciers or the duration of winter snow cover on the Eurasian and North American continents. On a more scientific basis, the last IPCC report left no doubt: the amount of snow and ice on Earth is decreasing (Lemke et al 2007). Available data showed clearly decreasing trends in the sea ice and frozen ground extent of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the global glacier mass balance. However, the trend in the snow cover extent (SCE) of the NH was much more ambiguous; a result that has since been confirmed by the online available up-to-date analysis of the SCE performed by the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab (climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/). The behavior of snow is not the result of a simple cause-and-effect relationship between air temperature and snow. It is instead related to a rather complex interplay between external meteorological parameters and internal processes in the snowpack. While air temperature is of course a crucial parameter for snow and its melting, precipitation and radiation are also important. Further physical properties like snow grain size and the amount of absorbing impurities in the snow determine the fraction of absorbed radiation. While all these parameters affect the energy budget of the snowpack, each of these variables can dominate depending on the season or, more generally, on environmental conditions. As a result, the reduction in SCE in spring and summer in the

  11. 1998 ICA Presidential Address: Communication Structures and Processes in Globalization.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Monge, Peter

    1998-01-01

    Asserts that space-time compression, global consciousness through reflexivity, and disembedding mechanisms that restructure human relations constitute the major dynamics of globalization that have been theorized to date. States that globalism provides an important opportunity to expand academic relevance to issues that are central to the entire…

  12. Enhancing Primary School Students' Knowledge about Global Warming and Environmental Attitude Using Climate Change Activities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karpudewan, Mageswary; Roth, Wolff-Michael; Abdullah, Mohd Nor Syahrir Bin

    2015-01-01

    Climate change generally and global warming specifically have become a common feature of the daily news. Due to widespread recognition of the adverse consequences of climate change on human lives, concerted societal effort has been taken to address it (e.g. by means of the science curriculum). This study was designed to test the effect that child-centred, 5E learning cycle-based climate change activities would have over more traditional teacher-centred activities on Malaysian Year 5 primary students (11 years). A quasi-experimental design involving a treatment (n = 55) and a group representing typical teaching method (n = 60) was used to measure the effectiveness of these activities on (a) increasing children's knowledge about global warming; (b) changing their attitudes to be more favourable towards the environment and (c) identify the relationship between knowledge and attitude that exist in this study. Statistically significant differences in favour of the treatment group were detected for both knowledge and environmental attitudes. Non-significant relationship was identified between knowledge and attitude in this study. Interviews with randomly selected students from treatment and comparison groups further underscore these findings. Implications are discussed.

  13. What is "good reasoning" about global warming? A comparison of high school students and specialists

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adams, Stephen Thomas

    This study compares the knowledge and reasoning about global warming of 10 twelfth grade students and 6 specialists, including scientists and policy analysts. The study uses global warming as a context for addressing the broad objective of formulating goals for scientific literacy. Subjects evaluated a set of articles about global warming and evaluated policies proposed to ameliorate global warming, including a gasoline tax and a "feebate" system of fees and rebates on automobiles. All students and one scientist participated in a full treatment involving interviews and activities with a computer program (discussed below), averaging about 3.75 hours. In addition, five specialists participated in interviews only, averaging one hour. One line of analysis focuses on knowledge content, examining how subjects applied perspectives from both natural and social sciences. This analysis is positioned as an empirical component to the movement to develop content standards for science education, as exemplified by the recommendations of Science for All Americans (SFAA). Some aspects of competent performance in the present study hinged upon knowledge and skills advocated by SFAA (e.g., fluency with themes of science such as scale). Other aspects involved such skills as evaluating economic interests behind a scientific argument in the media or considering hidden costs in a policy area. By characterizing a range of approaches to how students and specialists performed the experimental tasks, the present study affords a view of scientific literacy not possible without this type of information. Another line of analysis investigates a measure of coherent argumentation from a computer program, Convince Me, in relation to policy reasoning. The program is based on a connectionist model, ECHO. Subjects used the program to create arguments about the aforementioned policies. The study compares Convince Me's Model's Fit argumentation measure to other measures, including ratings of 6 human

  14. Global warming and prairie wetlands: potential consequences for waterfowl habitat

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Poiani, Karen A.; Johnson, W. Carter

    1991-01-01

    precipitation and runoff from melting snow on frozen or saturated soils (Figure 2). Annual water levels fluctuate widely due to climate variability in the Great Plains (Borchert 1950, Kantrud et al. 1989b). Climate affects the quality of habitat for breeding waterfowl by controlling regional water conditions--water depth, areal extent, and length of wet/dry cycles (Cowardin et al. 1988)--and vegetation patterns such as the cover ration (the ratio of emergent plant cover to open water). With increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate models project warmer and, in some cases, drier conditions for the northern Great Plains (Karl et al. 1991, Manabe and Wetherald 1986, Mitchell 1983, Rind and Lebedeff 1984). In general, a warmer, drier climate could lower waterfowl production directly by increasing the frequency of dry basins and indirectly by producing less favorable cover rations (i.e., heavy emergent cover with few or no open-water areas). The possibility of diminished waterfowl production in a greenhouse climate comes at a time when waterfowl numbers have sharply declined for other reasons (Johnson and Shaffer 1987). Breeding habitat continues to be lost or altered by agriculture, grazing, burning, mowing, sedimentation, and drainage (Kantrud et al. 1989b). For example, it has been estimated that 60% of the wetland area in North Dakota has been drained (Tiner 1984). Pesticides entering wetlands from adjacent agricultural fields have been destructive to aquatic invertebrate populations and have significantly lowered duckling survival (Grue et al. 1988). In this article, we discuss current understanding and projections of global warming; review wetland vegetation dynamics to establish the strong relationship among climate, wetland hydrology, vegetation patterns, and waterflow habitat; discuss the potential effects of a greenhouse warming on these relationships; and illustrate the potential effects of climate change on wetland habitat by using a simulation model. The

  15. Optimal Detection of Global Warming using Temperature Profiles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leroy, Stephen S.

    1997-01-01

    Optimal fingerprinting is applied to estimate the amount of time it would take to detect warming by increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in monthly averages of temperature profiles over the Indian Ocean.

  16. The impact of Global Warming on global crop yields due to changes in pest pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Battisti, D. S.; Tewksbury, J. J.; Deutsch, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    A billion people currently lack reliable access to sufficient food and almost half of the calories feeding these people come from just three crops: rice, maize, wheat. Insect pests are among the largest factors affecting the yield of these three crops, but models assessing the effects of global warming on crops rarely consider changes in insect pest pressure on crop yields. We use well-established relationships between temperature and insect physiology to project climate-driven changes in pest pressure, defined as integrated population metabolism, for the three major crops. By the middle of this century, under most scenarios, insect pest pressure is projected to increase by more than 50% in temperate areas, while increases in tropical regions will be more modest. Yield relationships indicate that the largest increases in insect pest pressure are likely to occur in areas where yield is greatest, suggesting increased strain on global food markets.

  17. Germination Shifts of C3 and C4 Species under Simulated Global Warming Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Hongxiang; Yu, Qiang; Huang, Yingxin; Zheng, Wei; Tian, Yu; Song, Yantao; Li, Guangdi; Zhou, Daowei

    2014-01-01

    Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies. PMID:25137138

  18. Germination shifts of C3 and C4 species under simulated global warming scenario.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Hongxiang; Yu, Qiang; Huang, Yingxin; Zheng, Wei; Tian, Yu; Song, Yantao; Li, Guangdi; Zhou, Daowei

    2014-01-01

    Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies.

  19. A mechanistic view of why global warming is proportional to cumulative carbon emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Ric; Goodwin, Philip; Ridgwell, Andy

    2015-04-01

    Climate model experiments reveal that transient global warming from radiative forcing is nearly proportional to cumulative carbon emissions on multi-decadal to millennial timescales. However, it is not quantitatively understood how this near linear dependence between warming and cumulative carbon emissions arises in transient climate simulations, nor why the proportionality of warming is largely independent of emission scenario. Here, we present the first theoretical equation for how global warming depends on cumulative carbon emissions over time for an atmosphere-ocean system. For the present, our theory identifies a sensitivity of surface warming to emissions of 1.5±0.7 K for every 1000 Pg of carbon emitted, reducing by only 10 to 20% by the end of the century and beyond. The sensitivity remaining nearly constant over time is due to partially-opposing thermal and carbon responses in a coupled atmosphere-ocean, where ocean drawdown of heat and carbon alter the surface warming and radiative forcing in opposing ways. Incorporating estimates of terrestrial carbon uptake into our analysis reduces the sensitivity of surface warming to 1.1±0.5 K for every 1000 Pg of carbon emitted, but does not significantly alter the percentage reduction in warming sensitivity over the 21st century. Our theory provides an analytical framework to understand the controlling mechanisms and interpret why there are different model projections of global warming.

  20. Response of Vegetation in Northern China to Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cui, H.; Huang, R.

    2009-05-01

    (Sophora japonica), tree of heaven (Ailanthus altissima), yellow locust (Robinia pseudoacacia), staghorn sumac (Rhus typhina), and gingko (Ginkgo biloba) have also been pushing northward to Huhhot, (41 degree N)Chifeng (42 degree N) and Tongliao (43 degree N), Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Alpine timberline has also been moved to higher altitude in Wutai Mt., Shanxi Province and Changbaishan Mt., Jilin Province. Although global warming seems to benefit agriculture in some cases, considering the decrease of wetness, the perspective is still uncertain. Drought and frost hazard are stress factors for the vegetation introduced to the northern areas. Chinese scholars are carefully watching the trend.

  1. Natural gas and efficient technologies: A response to global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Steinberg, M.

    1998-02-01

    It has become recognized by the international scientific community that global warming due to fossil fuel energy buildup of greenhouse CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere is a real environmental problem. Worldwide agreement has also been reached to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions. A leading approach to reducing CO{sub 2} emissions is to utilize hydrogen-rich fuels and improve the efficiency of conversion in the power generation, transportation and heating sectors of the economy. In this report, natural gas, having the highest hydrogen content of all the fossil fuels, can have an important impact in reducing CO{sub 2} emissions. This paper explores natural gas and improved conversion systems for supplying energy to all three sectors of the economy. The improved technologies include combined cycle for power generation, the Carnol system for methanol production for the transportation sector and fuel cells for both power generation and transportation use. The reduction in CO{sub 2} from current emissions range from 13% when natural gas is substituted for gasoline in the transportation sector to 45% when substituting methanol produced by the Carnol systems (hydrogen from thermal decomposition of methane reacting with CO{sub 2} from coal-fired power plants) used in the transportation sector. CO{sub 2} reductions exceeding 60% can be achieved by using natural gas in combined cycle for power generation and Carnol methanol in the transportation sector and would, thus, stabilize CO{sub 2} concentration in the atmosphere predicted to avoid undue climate change effects. It is estimated that the total fossil fuel energy bill in the US can be reduced by over 40% from the current fuel bill. This also allows a doubling in the unit cost for natural gas if the current energy bill is maintained. Estimates of the total net incremental replacement capital cost for completing the new improved equipment is not more than that which will have to be spent to replace the existing equipment conducting

  2. Using Just in Time Teaching in a Global Climate Change Course to Address Misconceptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuenemann, K. C.

    2013-12-01

    Just in Time Teaching (JiTT) is employed in an introductory Global Climate Change college course with the intention of addressing common misconceptions and climate myths. Students enter the course with a variety of prior knowledge and opinions on global warming, and JiTT can be used as a constructivist pedagogical approach to make use of this prior knowledge. Students are asked to watch a short video or do a reading, sometimes screen capture videos created by the professor as review of material from the previous class, a video available on the web from NASA or NOAA, for example, or a reading from an online article or their textbook. After the video or reading, students answer a question carefully designed to pry at a common misconception, or simply are asked for the 'muddiest point' that remains on the concept. This assignment is done the night before class using a web program. The program aggregates the answers in an organized way so the professor can use the answers to design the day's lesson to address common misconceptions or concerns students displayed in their answers, as well as quickly assign participation credit to students who completed the assignment. On the other hand, if students display that they have already mastered the material, the professor can confidently move on to the next concept. The JiTT pedagogical method personalizes each lecture period to the students in that particular class for maximum efficiency while catching and fixing misconceptions in a timely manner. This technique requires students to spend time with the material outside of class, acts as review of important concepts, and increases engagement in class due to the personalization of the course. Evaluation results from use of this technique will be presented. Examples of successful JiTT videos, questions, student answers, and techniques for addressing misconceptions during lecture will also be presented with the intention that instructors can easily apply this technique to their

  3. Global Warming and Ozone Layer Depletion: STS Issues for Social Studies Classrooms.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rye, James A.; Strong, Donna D.; Rubba, Peter A.

    2001-01-01

    Explores the inclusion of science-technology-society (STS) education in social studies. Provides background information on global warming and the depletion of the ozone layer. Focuses on reasons for teaching global climate change in the social studies classroom and includes teaching suggestions. Offers a list of Web sites about global climate…

  4. American exceptionalism? Similarities and differences in national attitudes toward energy policy and global warming

    SciTech Connect

    D.M. Reiner; T.E. Curry; M.A. de Figueiredo; H.J. Herzog; S.D. Ansolabehere; K. Itaoka; F. Johnsson; M. Odenberger

    2006-04-01

    Despite sharp differences in government policy, the views of the U.S. public on energy and global warming are remarkably similar to those in Sweden, Britain, and Japan. Americans do exhibit some differences, placing lower priority on the environment and global warming, and with fewer believing that 'global warming has been established as a serious problem and immediate action is necessary'. There also remains a small hard core of skeptics (<10%) who do not believe in the science of climate change and the need for action, a group that is much smaller in the other countries surveyed. The similarities are, however, pervasive. Similar preferences are manifest across a wide range of technology and fuel choices, in support of renewables, in research priorities, in a basic understanding of which technologies produce or reduce carbon dioxide (or misunderstandings in the case of nuclear power), and in willingness to pay for solving global warming. 29 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  5. American exceptionalism? Similarities and differences in national attitudes toward energy policy and global warming.

    PubMed

    Reiner, D M; Curry, T E; De Figueiredo, M A; Herzog, H J; Ansolabehere, S D; Itaoka, K; Johnsson, F; Odenberger, M

    2006-04-01

    Despite sharp differences in government policy, the views of the U.S. public on energy and global warming are remarkably similar to those in Sweden, Britain, and Japan. Americans do exhibit some differences, placing lower priority on the environment and global warming, and with fewer believing that "global warming has been established as a serious problem and immediate action is necessary". There also remains a small hard core of skeptics (< 10%) who do not believe in the science of climate change and the need for action, a group that is much smaller in the other countries surveyed. The similarities are, however, pervasive. Similar preferences are manifest across a wide range of technology and fuel choices, in support of renewables, in research priorities, in a basic understanding of which technologies produce or reduce carbon dioxide (or misunderstandings in the case of nuclear power), and in willingness to pay for solving global warming.

  6. American exceptionalism? Similarities and differences in national attitudes toward energy policy and global warming.

    PubMed

    Reiner, D M; Curry, T E; De Figueiredo, M A; Herzog, H J; Ansolabehere, S D; Itaoka, K; Johnsson, F; Odenberger, M

    2006-04-01

    Despite sharp differences in government policy, the views of the U.S. public on energy and global warming are remarkably similar to those in Sweden, Britain, and Japan. Americans do exhibit some differences, placing lower priority on the environment and global warming, and with fewer believing that "global warming has been established as a serious problem and immediate action is necessary". There also remains a small hard core of skeptics (< 10%) who do not believe in the science of climate change and the need for action, a group that is much smaller in the other countries surveyed. The similarities are, however, pervasive. Similar preferences are manifest across a wide range of technology and fuel choices, in support of renewables, in research priorities, in a basic understanding of which technologies produce or reduce carbon dioxide (or misunderstandings in the case of nuclear power), and in willingness to pay for solving global warming. PMID:16646438

  7. The rise of global warming skepticism: exploring affective image associations in the United States over time.

    PubMed

    Smith, Nicholas; Leiserowitz, Anthony

    2012-06-01

    This article explores how affective image associations to global warming have changed over time. Four nationally representative surveys of the American public were conducted between 2002 and 2010 to assess public global warming risk perceptions, policy preferences, and behavior. Affective images (positive or negative feelings and cognitive representations) were collected and content analyzed. The results demonstrate a large increase in "naysayer" associations, indicating extreme skepticism about the issue of climate change. Multiple regression analyses found that holistic affect and "naysayer" associations were more significant predictors of global warming risk perceptions than cultural worldviews or sociodemographic variables, including political party and ideology. The results demonstrate the important role affective imagery plays in judgment and decision-making processes, how these variables change over time, and how global warming is currently perceived by the American public.

  8. How the public engages with global warming: A social representations approach.

    PubMed

    Smith, Nicholas; Joffe, Helene

    2013-01-01

    The present study utilises social representations theory to explore common sense conceptualisations of global warming risk using an in-depth, qualitative methodology. Fifty-six members of a British, London-based 2008 public were initially asked to draw or write four spontaneous "first thoughts or feelings" about global warming. These were then explored via an open-ended, exploratory interview. The analysis revealed that first thoughts, either drawn or written, often mirrored the images used by the British press to depict global warming visually. Thus in terms of media framings, it was their visual rather than their textual content that was spontaneously available for their audiences. Furthermore, an in-depth exploration of interview data revealed that global warming was structured around three themata: self/other, natural/unnatural and certainty/uncertainty, reflecting the complex and often contradictory nature of common sense thinking in relation to risk issues.

  9. Further evidence of the effects of global warming on lichens, particularly those with Trentepohlia phycobionts.

    PubMed

    Aptroot, A; van Herk, C M

    2007-03-01

    Increasing evidence suggests that lichens are responding to climate change in Western Europe. More epiphytic species appear to be increasing, rather than declining, as a result of global warming. Many terricolous species, in contrast, are declining. Changes to epiphytic floras are markedly more rapid in formerly heavily polluted, generally built-up or open rural areas, as compared to forested regions. Both the distribution (southern) and ecology (warmth-loving) of the newly established or increasing species seem to be determined by global warming. Epiphytic temperate to boreo-montane species appear to be relatively unaffected. Vacant niches caused by other environmental changes are showing the most pronounced effects of global warming. Species most rapidly increasing in forests, although taxonomically unrelated, all contain Trentepohlia as phycobiont in addition to having a southern distribution. This suggests that in this habitat, Trentepohlia algae, rather than the different lichen symbioses, are affected by global warming.

  10. Shifts in winter distribution in birds: effects of global warming and local habitat change.

    PubMed

    Valiela, Ivan; Bowen, Jennifer L

    2003-11-01

    As global warming intensified toward the end of the 20th century, there was a northward shift in winter ranges of bird species in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA. These poleward shifts were correlated to local increases in minimum winter temperatures and global temperature anomalies. This evidence, plus other recent results, suggests that during the last two decades global warming has led to massive and widespread biogeographic shifts with potentially major ecological and human consequences. Local habitat changes associated with urban sprawl affected mainly forest birds with more northern winter distributions. In Cape Cod, the effects of warming on bird distributions are more substantial at the start of the 21st century, than those of habitat alteration, but as urban sprawl continues its importance may rival that of global warming.

  11. Increase of global monsoon area and precipitation under global warming: A robust signal?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsu, Pang-chi; Li, Tim; Luo, Jing-Jia; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Kitoh, Akio; Zhao, Ming

    2012-03-01

    Monsoons, the most energetic tropical climate system, exert a great social and economic impact upon billions of people around the world. The global monsoon precipitation had an increasing trend over the past three decades. Whether or not this increasing trend will continue in the 21st century is investigated, based on simulations of three high-resolution atmospheric general circulation models that were forced by different future sea surface temperature (SST) warming patterns. The results show that the global monsoon area, precipitation and intensity all increase consistently among the model projections. This indicates that the strengthened global monsoon is a robust signal across the models and SST patterns explored here. The increase of the global monsoon precipitation is attributed to the increases of moisture convergence and surface evaporation. The former is caused by the increase of atmospheric water vapor and the latter is due to the increase of SST. The effect of the moisture and evaporation increase is offset to a certain extent by the weakening of the monsoon circulation.

  12. Economic impact analysis for global warming: Sensitivity analysis for cost and benefit estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Ierland, E.C. van; Derksen, L.

    1994-12-31

    Proper policies for the prevention or mitigation of the effects of global warming require profound analysis of the costs and benefits of alternative policy strategies. Given the uncertainty about the scientific aspects of the process of global warming, in this paper a sensitivity analysis for the impact of various estimates of costs and benefits of greenhouse gas reduction strategies is carried out to analyze the potential social and economic impacts of climate change.

  13. Potential impacts of global warming on the diversity and distribution of stream insects in South Korea.

    PubMed

    Li, Fengqing; Kwon, Yong-Su; Bae, Mi-Jung; Chung, Namil; Kwon, Tae-Sung; Park, Young-Seuk

    2014-04-01

    Globally, the East Asian monsoon region is one of the richest environments in terms of biodiversity. The region is undergoing rapid human development, yet its river ecosystems have not been well studied. Global warming represents a major challenge to the survival of species in this region and makes it necessary to assess and reduce the potential consequences of warming on species of conservation concern. We projected the effects of global warming on stream insect (Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera [EOPT]) diversity and predicted the changes of geographical ranges for 121 species throughout South Korea. Plecoptera was the most sensitive (decrease of 71.4% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) order, whereas Odonata benefited (increase of 66.7% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) from the effects of global warming. The impact of global warming on stream insects was predicted to be minimal prior to the 2060s; however, by the 2080s, species extirpation of up to 20% in the highland areas and 2% in the lowland areas were predicted. The projected responses of stream insects under global warming indicated that species occupying specific habitats could undergo major reductions in habitat. Nevertheless, habitat of 33% of EOPT (including two-thirds of Odonata and one-third of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) was predicted to increase due to global warming. The community compositions predicted by generalized additive models varied over this century, and a large difference in community structure in the highland areas was predicted between the 2000s and the 2080s. However, stream insect communities, especially Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera, were predicted to become more homogenous under global warming. PMID:24372690

  14. Modeling the impact of global warming on vector-borne infections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massad, Eduardo; Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra; Lopez, Luis Fernandez; da Silva, Daniel Rodrigues

    2011-06-01

    Global warming will certainly affect the abundance and distribution of disease vectors. The effect of global warming, however, depends on the complex interaction between the human host population and the causative infectious agent. In this work we review some mathematical models that were proposed to study the impact of the increase in ambient temperature on the spread and gravity of some insect-transmitted diseases.

  15. Modeling the impact of global warming on vector-borne infections.

    PubMed

    Massad, Eduardo; Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra; Lopez, Luis Fernandez; da Silva, Daniel Rodrigues

    2011-06-01

    Global warming will certainly affect the abundance and distribution of disease vectors. The effect of global warming, however, depends on the complex interaction between the human host population and the causative infectious agent. In this work we review some mathematical models that were proposed to study the impact of the increase in ambient temperature on the spread and gravity of some insect-transmitted diseases.

  16. Potential impacts of global warming on the diversity and distribution of stream insects in South Korea.

    PubMed

    Li, Fengqing; Kwon, Yong-Su; Bae, Mi-Jung; Chung, Namil; Kwon, Tae-Sung; Park, Young-Seuk

    2014-04-01

    Globally, the East Asian monsoon region is one of the richest environments in terms of biodiversity. The region is undergoing rapid human development, yet its river ecosystems have not been well studied. Global warming represents a major challenge to the survival of species in this region and makes it necessary to assess and reduce the potential consequences of warming on species of conservation concern. We projected the effects of global warming on stream insect (Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera [EOPT]) diversity and predicted the changes of geographical ranges for 121 species throughout South Korea. Plecoptera was the most sensitive (decrease of 71.4% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) order, whereas Odonata benefited (increase of 66.7% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) from the effects of global warming. The impact of global warming on stream insects was predicted to be minimal prior to the 2060s; however, by the 2080s, species extirpation of up to 20% in the highland areas and 2% in the lowland areas were predicted. The projected responses of stream insects under global warming indicated that species occupying specific habitats could undergo major reductions in habitat. Nevertheless, habitat of 33% of EOPT (including two-thirds of Odonata and one-third of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) was predicted to increase due to global warming. The community compositions predicted by generalized additive models varied over this century, and a large difference in community structure in the highland areas was predicted between the 2000s and the 2080s. However, stream insect communities, especially Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera, were predicted to become more homogenous under global warming.

  17. The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus.

    PubMed

    Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

    2015-11-16

    Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes.

  18. The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus.

    PubMed

    Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

    2015-01-01

    Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes. PMID:26568024

  19. The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

    2015-11-01

    Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes.

  20. The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus

    PubMed Central

    Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

    2015-01-01

    Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes. PMID:26568024

  1. Impacts of Dams and Global Warming on Fish Biodiversity in the Indo-Burma Hotspot

    PubMed Central

    Nam, So; Samejima, Hiromitsu; Watanabe, Katsutoshi; Grudpan, Chaiwut; Grudpan, Jarungjit; Magtoon, Wichan; Musikasinthorn, Prachya; Nguyen, Phuong Thanh; Praxaysonbath, Bounthob; Sato, Tomoyuki; Shimatani, Yukihiro; Suvarnaraksha, Apinun; Tanaka, Wataru; Thach, Phanara; Tran, Dac Dinh; Yamashita, Tomomi

    2016-01-01

    Both hydropower dams and global warming pose threats to freshwater fish diversity. While the extent of global warming may be reduced by a shift towards energy generation by large dams in order to reduce fossil-fuel use, such dams profoundly modify riverine habitats. Furthermore, the threats posed by dams and global warming will interact: for example, dams constrain range adjustments by fishes that might compensate for warming temperatures. Evaluation of their combined or synergistic effects is thus essential for adequate assessment of the consequences of planned water-resource developments. We made projections of the responses of 363 fish species within the Indo-Burma global biodiversity hotspot to the separate and joint impacts of dams and global warming. The hotspot encompasses the Lower Mekong Basin, which is the world’s largest freshwater capture fishery. Projections for 81 dam-building scenarios revealed progressive impacts upon projected species richness, habitable area, and the proportion of threatened species as generating capacity increased. Projections from 126 global-warming scenarios included a rise in species richness, a reduction in habitable area, and an increase in the proportion of threatened species; however, there was substantial variation in the extent of these changes among warming projections. Projections from scenarios that combined the effects of dams and global warming were derived either by simply adding the two threats, or by combining them in a synergistic manner that took account of the likelihood that habitat shifts under global warming would be constrained by river fragmentation. Impacts on fish diversity under the synergistic projections were 10–20% higher than those attributable to additive scenarios, and were exacerbated as generating capacity increased—particularly if CO2 emissions remained high. The impacts of dams, especially those on river mainstreams, are likely to be greater, more predictable and more immediately

  2. Impacts of Dams and Global Warming on Fish Biodiversity in the Indo-Burma Hotspot.

    PubMed

    Kano, Yuichi; Dudgeon, David; Nam, So; Samejima, Hiromitsu; Watanabe, Katsutoshi; Grudpan, Chaiwut; Grudpan, Jarungjit; Magtoon, Wichan; Musikasinthorn, Prachya; Nguyen, Phuong Thanh; Praxaysonbath, Bounthob; Sato, Tomoyuki; Shibukawa, Koichi; Shimatani, Yukihiro; Suvarnaraksha, Apinun; Tanaka, Wataru; Thach, Phanara; Tran, Dac Dinh; Yamashita, Tomomi; Utsugi, Kenzo

    2016-01-01

    Both hydropower dams and global warming pose threats to freshwater fish diversity. While the extent of global warming may be reduced by a shift towards energy generation by large dams in order to reduce fossil-fuel use, such dams profoundly modify riverine habitats. Furthermore, the threats posed by dams and global warming will interact: for example, dams constrain range adjustments by fishes that might compensate for warming temperatures. Evaluation of their combined or synergistic effects is thus essential for adequate assessment of the consequences of planned water-resource developments. We made projections of the responses of 363 fish species within the Indo-Burma global biodiversity hotspot to the separate and joint impacts of dams and global warming. The hotspot encompasses the Lower Mekong Basin, which is the world's largest freshwater capture fishery. Projections for 81 dam-building scenarios revealed progressive impacts upon projected species richness, habitable area, and the proportion of threatened species as generating capacity increased. Projections from 126 global-warming scenarios included a rise in species richness, a reduction in habitable area, and an increase in the proportion of threatened species; however, there was substantial variation in the extent of these changes among warming projections. Projections from scenarios that combined the effects of dams and global warming were derived either by simply adding the two threats, or by combining them in a synergistic manner that took account of the likelihood that habitat shifts under global warming would be constrained by river fragmentation. Impacts on fish diversity under the synergistic projections were 10-20% higher than those attributable to additive scenarios, and were exacerbated as generating capacity increased-particularly if CO2 emissions remained high. The impacts of dams, especially those on river mainstreams, are likely to be greater, more predictable and more immediately pressing for

  3. Impacts of Dams and Global Warming on Fish Biodiversity in the Indo-Burma Hotspot.

    PubMed

    Kano, Yuichi; Dudgeon, David; Nam, So; Samejima, Hiromitsu; Watanabe, Katsutoshi; Grudpan, Chaiwut; Grudpan, Jarungjit; Magtoon, Wichan; Musikasinthorn, Prachya; Nguyen, Phuong Thanh; Praxaysonbath, Bounthob; Sato, Tomoyuki; Shibukawa, Koichi; Shimatani, Yukihiro; Suvarnaraksha, Apinun; Tanaka, Wataru; Thach, Phanara; Tran, Dac Dinh; Yamashita, Tomomi; Utsugi, Kenzo

    2016-01-01

    Both hydropower dams and global warming pose threats to freshwater fish diversity. While the extent of global warming may be reduced by a shift towards energy generation by large dams in order to reduce fossil-fuel use, such dams profoundly modify riverine habitats. Furthermore, the threats posed by dams and global warming will interact: for example, dams constrain range adjustments by fishes that might compensate for warming temperatures. Evaluation of their combined or synergistic effects is thus essential for adequate assessment of the consequences of planned water-resource developments. We made projections of the responses of 363 fish species within the Indo-Burma global biodiversity hotspot to the separate and joint impacts of dams and global warming. The hotspot encompasses the Lower Mekong Basin, which is the world's largest freshwater capture fishery. Projections for 81 dam-building scenarios revealed progressive impacts upon projected species richness, habitable area, and the proportion of threatened species as generating capacity increased. Projections from 126 global-warming scenarios included a rise in species richness, a reduction in habitable area, and an increase in the proportion of threatened species; however, there was substantial variation in the extent of these changes among warming projections. Projections from scenarios that combined the effects of dams and global warming were derived either by simply adding the two threats, or by combining them in a synergistic manner that took account of the likelihood that habitat shifts under global warming would be constrained by river fragmentation. Impacts on fish diversity under the synergistic projections were 10-20% higher than those attributable to additive scenarios, and were exacerbated as generating capacity increased-particularly if CO2 emissions remained high. The impacts of dams, especially those on river mainstreams, are likely to be greater, more predictable and more immediately pressing for

  4. Energy and global warming impacts of next generation refrigeration and air conditioning technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Sand, J.R.; Fischer, S.K.; Baxter, V.D.

    1996-10-01

    Significant developments have occurred in hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) and the application of ammonia and hydrocarbons as refrigerant working fluids since the original TEWI (Total Equivalent Warming Impact) report in 1991. System operating and performance data on alternative refrigerants and refrigeration technologies justify and updated evaluation of these new alternative refrigerants and competing technologies in well-characterized applications. Analytical and experimental results are used to show quantitative comparisons between HFCS, HFC blends, hydrocarbons, and ammonia, used as refrigerants. An objective evaluation is presented for commercial and near commercial non-CFC refrigerants/blowing agents and alternative refrigeration technologies. This information is needed for objective and quantitative decisions on policies addressing greenhouse gas emissions from refrigeration and air conditioning equipment. The evaluation assesses the energy use and global warming impacts of refrigeration and air conditioning technologies that could be commercialized during the phase out of HCFCS. Quantitative comparison TEWI for two application areas are presented. Opportunities for significant reductions in TEWI are seen with currently known refrigerants through improved maintenance and servicing practices and improved product designs.

  5. Impact of global warming on the Asian winter monsoon in a coupled GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Bengtsson, Lennart; Arpe, Klaus

    2000-02-01

    The Asian winter monsoon (AWM) response to the global warming was investigated through a long-term integration of the transient greenhouse warming with the ECHAM4/OPYC3 CGCM. The physics of the response was studied through analyses of the impact of the global warming on the variations of the ocean and land contrast near the ground in the Asian and western Pacific region and the east Asian trough and jet stream in the middle and upper troposphere. Forcing of transient eddy activity on the zonal circulation over the Asian and western Pacific region was also analyzed. It is found that in the global warming scenario the winter northeasterlies along the Pacific coast of the Eurasian continent weaken systematically and significantly, and intensity of the AWM reduces evidently, but the AWM variances on the interannual and interdecadal scales are not affected much by the global warming. It is suggested that the global warming makes the climate over the most part of Asia to be milder with enhanced moisture in winter. In the global warming scenario the contrasts of the sea level pressure and the near-surface temperature between the Asian continent and the Pacific Ocean become significantly smaller, northward and eastward shifts and weakening of the east Asian trough and jet stream in the middle and upper troposphere are found. As a consequence, the cold air in the AWM originating from the east Asian trough and high latitudes is less powerful. In addition, feedback of the transient activity also makes a considerable contribution to the higher-latitude shift of the jet stream over the North Pacific in the global warming scenario.

  6. Pupils teach to pupils about genetics or global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cuny, Delphine

    2013-04-01

    program that made me situated? Virtual experiments on the first cell of rats (core transfers) Conclusion: The program that made that a rat is itself is situated in the core of its first cell. It is called a genetic program. Second experiment of this type of project is realized with a class of 16-17 year old pupils, on global warming for 8 to 11 year old pupils from the neighbor school. The older pupils use a teaching set created by "la main à la pâte" foundation, the set is called "le climat, ma planète et moi" (the climate, my planet and me, http://www.fondation-lamap.org/fr/climat). This project is to take place in March 2013.

  7. Role of Indian Ocean SST variability on the recent global warming hiatus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arora, Anika; Rao, Suryachandra A.; Chattopadhyay, R.; Goswami, Tanmoy; George, Gibies; Sabeerali, C. T.

    2016-08-01

    Previous studies have shown a slowdown in the warming rate of the annual mean global surface temperature in the recent decade and it is referred to as the hiatus in global warming. Some recent studies have suggested that the hiatus in global warming is possibly due to strong cooling in the tropical Pacific. This study investigates the possible role of the Indian Ocean warming on the tropical Pacific cooling. Despite the continued rise in sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical Indian Ocean, SST over the tropical Pacific has shown a cooling trend in the recent decade (2002 - 2012). It is well known fact that the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean are strongly coupled to each other and the Indian Ocean basin wide warming is triggered by El Niño on interannual time scale. However, in the recent decade, this relationship is weakening. The recent Indian Ocean warming is triggering a Matsuno-Gill type response in the atmosphere by generating anomalous cyclonic circulations on either side of equator over the tropical Indian Ocean and anomalous easterlies along the tropical Pacific Ocean. These anomalous easterlies result in Ekman divergence in the equatorial Pacific and produce upwelling Kelvin waves, cools the tropical Pacific and therefore indirectly contributes to the hiatus in global warming.

  8. Intercultural Identities: Addressing the Global Dimension through Art Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bianchi, June

    2011-01-01

    Recent educational policy and practice have established an extended role for all subjects in addressing children and young peoples' academic and interpersonal development, with strategies facilitating key skills and wider learning across areas of Citizenship and Personal, Social and Health education providing an integrated approach to education…

  9. Impact of global warming on the Antarctic mass balance and global sea level

    SciTech Connect

    Budd, W.F.; Simmonds, I.

    1992-03-01

    The onset of global warming from increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can have a number of important different impacts on the Antarctic ice sheet. These include increasing basal melt of ice shelves, faster flow of the grounded ice, increased surface ablation in coastal regions, and increased precipitation over the interior. An analysis of these separate terms by ice sheet modeling indicates that the impact of increasing ice sheet flow rates on sea level does not become a dominant factor until 100--200 years after the realization of the warming. For the time period of the next 100 years the most important impact on sea level from the Antarctic mass balance can be expected to result from increasing precipitation minus evaporation balance over the grounded ice. The present Antarctic net accumulation and coastal ice flux each amount to about 2000 km3 yr-1, both of which on their own would equate to approximately 6 mm yr-1 of sea level change. The present rate of sea level rise of about 1.2 mm yr-1 is therefore equivalent to about 20% imbalance in the Antarctic mass fluxes. The magnitude of the changes to the Antarctic precipitation and evaporation have been studied by a series of General Circulation Model experiments, using a model which gives a reasonable simulation of the present Antarctic climate, including precipitation and evaporation.

  10. The roles of external forcing and natural variability in global warming hiatuses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Lei

    2016-02-01

    Global mean surface temperature (GMST) rising has slowed down since late 1990s, which is referred to as the global warming hiatus. There was another global warming hiatus event during 1940s-1960s. The roles of the external forcing and the natural variability in both global warming hiatuses are explored, using EOF analysis. The first two leading EOF modes of the 5-year running mean global sea surface temperature (SST) reflect the global warming scenario (EOF1) and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO)-like natural variability (EOF2), respectively. In observation, PC2 was in its positive phase (eastern Pacific cooling) during 1940s-1960s, which contributed to the previous warming hiatus. In addition, GMST trends are found to be negative during late 1950s and 1960s in most of the CMIP5 historical runs, which implies that the external forcing also contributed to the pause in the GMST rising. It is further demonstrated that it is the natural radiative forcing (volcanic forcing) that caused the drop-down of GMST in 1960s. The current global warming hiatus has been attributed to the eastern Pacific cooling/enhanced Pacific trade winds. It is shown that the PC2 switched to its positive phase in late 1990s, and hence the IPO-like natural variability made a contribution to the slowdown of GMST rising in the past decade. It is also found that the EOF1 mode (global warming mode) of the observed SST features a smaller warming in tropical Pacific compared to the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic. Such inter-basin warming contrast, which is attributed to the "ocean thermostat" mechanism, has been suggested to contribute to the intensification of Pacific trade winds since late 1990s as well. Global warming hiatuses are also found in the future projections from CMIP5 models, and the spatial pattern of the SST trends during the warming-hiatus periods exhibits an IPO-like pattern, which resembles the observed SST trends since late 1990s.

  11. An Investigation of Student Engagement in a Global Warming Debate: Proof of Concept for K-12 Outreach at UCSB

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schweizer, D. M.; Kelly, G. J.; Gautier, C.

    2001-05-01

    As part of a community outreach program, the first author worked with a physical science teacher to co-create and co-teach a nine week global warming for his three seventh grade classes. The nine week program culminated in a debate on the causes of global warming. Students were divided into three groups: scientists supporting human contributions to global warming; scientists opposed to human contributions to global warming; and leaders of nations. In this study we investigate how using debate as a pedagogical tool for addressing earth system science concepts can both promote active student learning and present a realistic and dynamic view of science. Grounded in the perspective of science as sociocultural practices, our investigation draws from studies of school science focusing on the socially constructed nature of knowing and the use of argument as a pedagogical tool. We present evidence illustrating how the use of argument provided opportunities for students to interpret data sets, formulate and defend arguments, challenge competing interpretations and unearth relevant scientific questions about the environment. We also provide evidence of how students were able to use scientific evidence to support their thought processes. The results of this outreach experience serve as a foundation for the development of a new K-12 outreach program, Earth Connection, scheduled to begin at the University of California Santa Barbara, in Summer, 2001. Through the Earth Connection Visiting Teacher Program, UCSB science educators will visit local schools to work directly with teachers in their classroom settings. The Visiting Teacher Program provides a mutual benefit to teachers and students. Students gain the experience of having an expert come into their classroom to involve them in the process of science. Teachers are provided with professional development opportunities to help them continue addressing relevant earth system science issues in their classrooms.

  12. Regional to global changes in drought and implications for future changes under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Kam, J.

    2012-12-01

    Drought can have large impacts on multiple sectors, including agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, transport, industry and tourism. In extreme cases, regional drought can lead to food insecurity and famine, and in intensive agricultural regions, extend to global economic impacts in a connected world. Recent droughts globally have been severe and costly but whether they are becoming more frequent and severe, and the attribution of this, is a key question. Observational evidence at large scales, such as satellite remote sensing are often subject to short-term records and inhomogeneities, and ground based data are sparse in many regions. Reliance on model output is also subject to error and simplifications in the model physics that can, for example, amplify the impact of global warming on drought. This presentation will show the observational and model evidence for changes in drought, with a focus on the interplay between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand and its impact on the terrestrial water cycle and drought. We discuss the fidelity of climate models to reproduce our best estimates of drought variability and its drivers historically, and the implications of this on uncertainties in future projections of drought from CMIP5 models, and how this has changed since CMIP3.

  13. Global warming and hepatotoxin production by cyanobacteria: what can we learn from experiments?

    PubMed

    El-Shehawy, Rehab; Gorokhova, Elena; Fernández-Piñas, Francisca; del Campo, Francisca F

    2012-04-01

    Global temperature is expected to rise throughout this century, and blooms of cyanobacteria in lakes and estuaries are predicted to increase with the current level of global warming. The potential environmental, economic and sanitation repercussions of these blooms have attracted considerable attention among the world's scientific communities, water management agencies and general public. Of particular concern is the worldwide occurrence of hepatotoxic cyanobacteria posing a serious threat to global public health. Here, we highlight plausible effects of global warming on physiological and molecular changes in these cyanobacteria and resulting effects on hepatotoxin production. We also emphasize the importance of understanding the natural biological function(s) of hepatotoxins, various mechanisms governing their synthesis, and climate-driven changes in food-web interactions, if we are to predict consequences of the current and projected levels of global warming for production and accumulation of hepatotoxins in aquatic ecosystems.

  14. Global Farm Animal Production and Global Warming: Impacting and Mitigating Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Koneswaran, Gowri; Nierenberg, Danielle

    2008-01-01

    Background The farm animal sector is the single largest anthropogenic user of land, contributing to many environmental problems, including global warming and climate change. Objectives The aim of this study was to synthesize and expand upon existing data on the contribution of farm animal production to climate change. Methods We analyzed the scientific literature on farm animal production and documented greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as various mitigation strategies. Discussions An analysis of meat, egg, and milk production encompasses not only the direct rearing and slaughtering of animals, but also grain and fertilizer production for animal feed, waste storage and disposal, water use, and energy expenditures on farms and in transporting feed and finished animal products, among other key impacts of the production process as a whole. Conclusions Immediate and far-reaching changes in current animal agriculture practices and consumption patterns are both critical and timely if GHGs from the farm animal sector are to be mitigated. PMID:18470284

  15. Global and regional surface cooling in a warming climate: a multi-model analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medhaug, Iselin; Drange, Helge

    2016-06-01

    Instrumental temperature records show that the global climate may experience decadal-scale periods without warming despite a long-term warming trend. We analysed 17 global climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), identifying the likelihood and duration of periods without warming in the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, together with the preindustrial control and historical simulations. We find that non-warming periods may last 10, 15 and 30 years for RCP8.5, RCP6.0 and RCP4.5, respectively. In the models, anomalous ocean heat uptake and storage are the main factors explaining the decadal-scale surface temperature hiatus periods. The low-latitude East Pacific Ocean is a key region for these variations, acting in tandem with basin-scale anomalies in the sea level pressure. During anomalously cold decades, roughly 35-50 % of the heat anomalies in the upper 700 m of the ocean are located in the Pacific Ocean, and 25 % in the Atlantic Ocean. Decadal-scale ocean heat anomalies, integrated over the upper 700 m, have a magnitude of about 7.5 × 1021 J. This is comparable to the ocean heat uptake needed to maintain a 10 year period without increasing surface temperature under global warming. On sub-decadal time scales the Atlantic, Pacific and Southern Oceans all have the ability to store large amounts of heat, contributing to variations in global surface temperature. The likelihood of decadal-scale non-warming periods decrease with global warming, firstly at the low latitude region stretching eastward from the tropical Atlantic towards the western Pacific. The North Atlantic and Southern Oceans have largest likelihood of non-warming decades in a warming world.

  16. Trends of regional precipitation and their control mechanisms during the 1979-2013 global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, S. C.

    2015-12-01

    Trends in precipitation are critical to water resources. Considerable uncertainty remains concerning trends of regional precipitation in response to global warming and their controlling mechanism(s). Here we use an inter-annual difference method to derive trends of regional precipitation from data of Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis in the near-global domain of 60°S-60°N during a major global warming period of 1979-2013. We find that trends of regional annual precipitation are primarily driven by changes in the top 30 % heavy precipitation which in turn are controlled by changes in precipitable water in response to global warming, i.e. by thermodynamic processes. Significant drying trends are found in most of the US and eastern Canada, the Middle East, and eastern South America, while significant increases in precipitation occur in northern Australia, southern Africa, western India and western China. In addition, as the climate warms there are extensive enhancements and expansions of the three major tropical precipitation centers, namely the Maritime Continent (MC), Central America, and tropical Africa, leading to a significant strengthening of the global hydrological cycle. However, there are significant discrepancies between observed trends derived from GPCP and those from a typical climate model (MPI ECHAM5) during the period 1979-2013, raising a serious concern regarding the capability of climate models in their projections of trends of regional precipitation in response to global warming.

  17. Relative roles of differential SST warming, uniform SST warming and land surface warming in determining the Walker circulation changes under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Lei; Li, Tim

    2016-04-01

    Most of CMIP5 models projected a weakened Walker circulation in tropical Pacific, but what causes such change is still an open question. By conducting idealized numerical simulations separating the effects of the spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming, extra land surface warming and differential SST warming, we demonstrate that the weakening of the Walker circulation is attributed to the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon and South America land effects. The effect of the uniform SST warming is through so-called "richest-get-richer" mechanism. In response to a uniform surface warming, the WNP monsoon is enhanced by competing moisture with other large-scale convective branches. The strengthened WNP monsoon further induces surface westerlies in the equatorial western-central Pacific, weakening the Walker circulation. The increase of the greenhouse gases leads to a larger land surface warming than ocean surface. As a result, a greater thermal contrast occurs between American Continent and equatorial Pacific. The so-induced zonal pressure gradient anomaly forces low-level westerly anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and weakens the Walker circulation. The differential SST warming also plays a role in driving low-level westerly anomalies over tropical Pacific. But such an effect involves a positive air-sea feedback that amplifies the weakening of both east-west SST gradient and Pacific trade winds.

  18. An effective way to address global environmental and energy problems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrienko, O.; Garelina, S.; Gysev, A.; Zakharyan, R.; Kazaryan, M.; Sachkov, V.

    2015-12-01

    This work scales the present globalism of ecological and energetic problems. The ecological problem is connected with environment pollution by polymeric waste. The energetic problem - with traditional approaches of modern energetic, in particular, use of fossil fuel for energy production and concentration of capacities for ensuring overall performance of global power supply systems that doesn't guarantee a sustainable development of power for long prospect, doesn't provide power safety of the country. The second part of work is devoted to a choice of the most effective solutions of the present global problems. The authors have proposed the plasma-chemical method of the polymer waste processing and developed a schematic diagram of the reactor. The paper contains the results of the theoretical calculation of the polymer waste processing products. The reagents, allowing to obtain hydrogen and other liquid products from polymer waste are selected. It is proposed to use rare elements for increasing the efficiency of hydrogen production from polymer waste. The results of the calculation of the efficiency of hydrogen production from polymer waste using molybdenum are revealed in the paper.

  19. Global warming mitigation by sulphur loading in the stratosphere: dependence of required emissions on allowable residual warming rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eliseev, Alexey V.; Chernokulsky, Alexandr V.; Karpenko, Andrey A.; Mokhov, Igor I.

    2010-07-01

    An approach to mitigate global warming via sulphur loading in the stratosphere (geoengineering) is studied, employing a large ensemble of numerical experiments with the climate model of intermediate complexity IAP RAS CM. The model is forced by the historical+SRES A1B anthropogenic greenhouse gases+tropospheric sulphates scenario for 1860-2100 with additional sulphur emissions in the stratosphere in the twenty-first century. Different ensemble members are constructed by varying values of the parameters governing mass, horizontal distribution and radiative forcing of the stratospheric sulphates. It is obtained that, given a global loading of the sulphates in the stratosphere, among those studied in this paper latitudinal distributions of geoengineering aerosols, the most efficient one at the global basis is that peaked between 50° N and 70° N and with a somewhat smaller burden in the tropics. Uniform latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates is a little less efficient. Sulphur emissions in the stratosphere required to stop the global temperature at the level corresponding to the mean value for 2000-2010 amount to more than 10 TgS/year in the year 2100. These emissions may be reduced if some warming is allowed to occur in the twenty-first century. For instance, if the global temperature trend S g in every decade of this century is limited not to exceed 0.10 K/decade (0.15 K/decade), geoengineering emissions of 4-14 TgS/year (2-7 TgS/year) would be sufficient. Even if the global warming is stopped, temperature changes in different regions still occur with a magnitude up to 1 K. Their horizontal pattern depends on implied latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates. In addition, for the stabilised global mean surface air temperature, global precipitation decreases by about 10%. If geoengineering emissions are stopped after several decades of implementation, their climatic effect is removed within a few decades. In this period, surface air

  20. Evolution determines how global warming and pesticide exposure will shape predator-prey interactions with vector mosquitoes.

    PubMed

    Tran, Tam T; Janssens, Lizanne; Dinh, Khuong V; Op de Beeck, Lin; Stoks, Robby

    2016-07-01

    How evolution may mitigate the effects of global warming and pesticide exposure on predator-prey interactions is directly relevant for vector control. Using a space-for-time substitution approach, we addressed how 4°C warming and exposure to the pesticide endosulfan shape the predation on Culex pipiens mosquitoes by damselfly predators from replicated low- and high-latitude populations. Although warming was only lethal for the mosquitoes, it reduced predation rates on these prey. Possibly, under warming escape speeds of the mosquitoes increased more than the attack efficiency of the predators. Endosulfan imposed mortality and induced behavioral changes (including increased filtering and thrashing and a positional shift away from the bottom) in mosquito larvae. Although the pesticide was only lethal for the mosquitoes, it reduced predation rates by the low-latitude predators. This can be explained by the combination of the evolution of a faster life history and associated higher vulnerabilities to the pesticide (in terms of growth rate and lowered foraging activity) in the low-latitude predators and pesticide-induced survival selection in the mosquitoes. Our results suggest that predation rates on mosquitoes at the high latitude will be reduced under warming unless predators evolve toward the current low-latitude phenotype or low-latitude predators move poleward.

  1. Debate on global warming as a socio-scientific issue: science teaching towards political literacy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    dos Santos, Wildson Luiz Pereira

    2014-09-01

    The focus of this response to the original article by Tom G. H. Bryce and Stephen P. Day (Cult Stud Sci Educ. doi: 10.1007/s11422-012-9407-1, 2013) is the use of empirical data to illustrate and expand the understanding of key points of their argument. Initially, I seek to discuss possible answers to the three questions posed by the authors related to: (1) the concerns to be addressed and the scientific knowledge to be taken into account in the climate change debate, (2) the attention to be paid to perspectives taken by "alarmists" and "deniers," and (3) the approaches to be used to conduct controversial global warming debate. In this discussion, I seek to contribute to the debate proposed by the original paper, illustrating various points commented on by the authors and expanding to other possibilities, which highlight the importance of political issues in the debate. Therefore, I argue that socio-political issues must be taken into account when I aim for a scientific literacy that can enhance students' political education. Likewise, I extend the debate presented in the original article, emphasizing the attention that should be paid to these aspects and approaching science education from a critical perspective. Highlighting only the confirmation bias without considering political implications of the debate can induce a reductionist and empiricist view of science, detached from the political power that acts on scientific activity. In conclusion, I support the idea that for a critical science education, the discussion of political issues should be involved in any controversial debate, a view, which goes beyond the confirmation bias proposed by Bryce and Day for the global warming debate. These issues are indeed vital and science teachers should take them into account when preparing their lessons for the debate on climate change.

  2. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

    PubMed

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E

    2015-08-11

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.

  3. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L. E.

    2015-01-01

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary. PMID:26259555

  4. Do mitigation strategies reduce global warming potential in the northern U.S. corn belt?

    PubMed

    Johnson, Jane M-F; Archer, David W; Weyers, Sharon L; Barbour, Nancy W

    2011-01-01

    Agricultural management practices that enhance C sequestration, reduce greenhouse gas emission (nitrous oxide [N₂O], methane [CH₄], and carbon dioxide [CO₂]), and promote productivity are needed to mitigate global warming without sacrificing food production. The objectives of the study were to compare productivity, greenhouse gas emission, and change in soil C over time and to assess whether global warming potential and global warming potential per unit biomass produced were reduced through combined mitigation strategies when implemented in the northern U.S. Corn Belt. The systems compared were (i) business as usual (BAU); (ii) maximum C sequestration (MAXC); and (iii) optimum greenhouse gas benefit (OGGB). Biomass production, greenhouse gas flux change in total and organic soil C, and global warming potential were compared among the three systems. Soil organic C accumulated only in the surface 0 to 5 cm. Three-year average emission of N₂O and CH was similar among all management systems. When integrated from planting to planting, N₂O emission was similar for MAXC and OGGB systems, although only MAXC was fertilized. Overall, the three systems had similar global warming potential based on 4-yr changes in soil organic C, but average rotation biomass was less in the OGGB systems. Global warming potential per dry crop yield was the least for the MAXC system and the most for OGGB system. This suggests management practices designed to reduce global warming potential can be achieved without a loss of productivity. For example, MAXC systems over time may provide sufficient soil C sequestration to offset associated greenhouse gas emission.

  5. Potential impacts of global warming on water resources in southern California.

    PubMed

    Beuhler, M

    2003-01-01

    Global warming will have a significant impact on water resources within the 20 to 90-year planning period of many water projects. Arid and semi-arid regions such as Southern California are especially vulnerable to anticipated negative impacts of global warming on water resources. Long-range water facility planning must consider global climate change in the recommended mix of new facilities needed to meet future water requirements. The generally accepted impacts of global warming include temperature, rising sea levels, more frequent and severe floods and droughts, and a shift from snowfall to rain. Precipitation changes are more difficult to predict. For Southern California, these impacts will be especially severe on surface water supplies. Additionally, rising sea levels will exacerbate salt-water intrusion into freshwater and impact the quality of surface water supplies. Integrated water resources planning is emerging as a tool to develop water supplies and demand management strategies that are less vulnerable to the impacts of global warming. These tools include water conservation, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater and desalination of brackish water and possibly seawater. Additionally, planning for future water needs should include explicit consideration of the potential range of global warming impacts through techniques such as scenario planning.

  6. Towards a feminist global bioethics: addressing women's health concerns worldwide.

    PubMed

    Tong, R

    2001-01-01

    In this paper I argue that a global bioethics is possible. Specifically, I present the view that there are within feminist approaches to bioethics some conceptual and methodological tools necessary to forge a bioethics that embraces the health-related concerns of both developing and developed nations equally. To support my argument I discuss some of the challenges that have historically confronted feminists. If feminists accept the idea that women are entirely the same, then feminists present as fact the fiction of the essential "Woman." Not only does "Woman" not exist, -she" obscures important racial, ethnic, cultural, and class differences among women. However, if feminists stress women's differences too much, feminists lose the power to speak coherently and cogently about gender justice, women's rights, and sexual equality in general. Analyzing the ways in which the idea of difference as well as the idea of sameness have led feminists astray, I ask whether it is possible to avoid the Scylla of absolutism (imperialism, colonialism, hegemony) on the one hand and the Charybdis of relativism (postmodernism, fragmentation, Balkanization) on the other. Finally, after reflecting upon the work of Uma Narayan, Susan Muller Okin, and Martha Nussbaum, I conclude that there is a way out of this ethical bind. By focusing on women's, children's, and men's common human needs, it is possible to lay the foundation for a just and caring global bioethics. PMID:11561998

  7. Towards a feminist global bioethics: addressing women's health concerns worldwide.

    PubMed

    Tong, R

    2001-01-01

    In this paper I argue that a global bioethics is possible. Specifically, I present the view that there are within feminist approaches to bioethics some conceptual and methodological tools necessary to forge a bioethics that embraces the health-related concerns of both developing and developed nations equally. To support my argument I discuss some of the challenges that have historically confronted feminists. If feminists accept the idea that women are entirely the same, then feminists present as fact the fiction of the essential "Woman." Not only does "Woman" not exist, -she" obscures important racial, ethnic, cultural, and class differences among women. However, if feminists stress women's differences too much, feminists lose the power to speak coherently and cogently about gender justice, women's rights, and sexual equality in general. Analyzing the ways in which the idea of difference as well as the idea of sameness have led feminists astray, I ask whether it is possible to avoid the Scylla of absolutism (imperialism, colonialism, hegemony) on the one hand and the Charybdis of relativism (postmodernism, fragmentation, Balkanization) on the other. Finally, after reflecting upon the work of Uma Narayan, Susan Muller Okin, and Martha Nussbaum, I conclude that there is a way out of this ethical bind. By focusing on women's, children's, and men's common human needs, it is possible to lay the foundation for a just and caring global bioethics.

  8. Global Warming and the Neglected Greenhouse Gas: A Cross-National Study of the Social Causes of Methane Emissions Intensity, 1995

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jorgenson, Andrew

    2006-01-01

    The human dimensions of greenhouse gas emissions and global warming attract considerable attention in macrosociology. However, cross-national analyses generally neglect greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide. The current study addresses this paucity through the testing of theoretically derived models for the social structural causes of the…

  9. Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible un...

  10. Impact of global warming on viral diseases: what is the evidence?

    PubMed

    Zell, Roland; Krumbholz, Andi; Wutzler, Peter

    2008-12-01

    Global warming is believed to induce a gradual climate change. Hence, it was predicted that tropical insects might expand their habitats thereby transmitting pathogens to humans. Although this concept is a conclusive presumption, clear evidence is still lacking--at least for viral diseases. Epidemiological data indicate that seasonality of many diseases is further influenced by strong single weather events, interannual climate phenomena, and anthropogenic factors. So far, emergence of new diseases was unlinked to global warming. Re-emergence and dispersion of diseases was correlated with translocation of pathogen-infected vectors or hosts. Coupled ocean/atmosphere circulations and 'global change' that also includes shifting of demographic, social, and economical conditions are important drivers of viral disease variability whereas global warming at best contributes.

  11. The stability of the thermohaline circulation in global warming experiments

    SciTech Connect

    Schmittner, A.; Stocker, T.F.

    1999-04-01

    A simplified climate model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system is used to perform extensive sensitivity studies concerning possible future climate change induced by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Supplemented with an active atmospheric hydrological cycle, experiments with different rates of CO{sub 2} increase and different climate sensitivities are performed. The model exhibits a threshold value of atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration beyond which the North Atlantic Deep Water formation stops and never recovers. For a climate sensitivity that leads to an equilibrium warming of 3.6 C for a doubling of CO{sub 2} and a rate of CO{sub 2} increase of 1% yr{sup {minus}1}, the threshold lies between 650 and 700 ppmv. Moreover, it is shown that the stability of the thermohaline circulation depends on the rate of increase of greenhouse gases. For a slower increase of atmospheric pCO{sub 2} the final amount that can be reached without a shutdown of the circulation is considerably higher. This rate-sensitive response is due to the uptake of heat and excess freshwater from the uppermost layers to the deep ocean. The increased equator-to-pole freshwater transport in a warmer atmosphere is mainly responsible for the cessation of deep water formation in the North Atlantic. Another consequence of the enhanced latent heat transport is a stronger warming at high latitudes. A model version with fixed water vapor transport exhibits uniform warming at all latitudes. The inclusion of a simple parameterization of the ice-albedo feedback increases the model sensitivity and further decreases the pole-to-equator temperature difference in a greenhouse climate. The possible range of CO{sub 2} threshold concentrations and its dependency on the rate of CO{sub 2} increase, on the climate sensitivity, and on other model parameters are discussed.

  12. Addressing sources of uncertainty in a global terrestrial carbon model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Exbrayat, J.; Pitman, A. J.; Zhang, Q.; Abramowitz, G.; Wang, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Several sources of uncertainty exist in the parameterization of the land carbon cycle in current Earth System Models (ESMs). For example, recently implemented interactions between the carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles lead to diverse changes in land-atmosphere C fluxes simulated by different models. Further, although soil organic matter decomposition is commonly parameterized as a first-order decay process, the formulation of the microbial response to changes in soil moisture and soil temperature varies tremendously between models. Here, we examine the sensitivity of historical land-atmosphere C fluxes simulated by an ESM to these two major sources of uncertainty. We implement three soil moisture (SMRF) and three soil temperature (STRF) respiration functions in the CABLE-CASA-CNP land biogeochemical component of the coarse resolution CSIRO Mk3L climate model. Simulations are undertaken using three degrees of biogeochemical nutrient limitation: C-only, C and N, and C and N and P. We first bring all 27 possible combinations of a SMRF with a STRF and a biogeochemical mode to a steady-state in their biogeochemical pools. Then, transient historical (1850-2005) simulations are driven by prescribed atmospheric CO2 concentrations used in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Similarly to some previously published results, representing N and P limitation on primary production reduces the global land carbon sink while some regions become net C sources over the historical period (1850-2005). However, the uncertainty due to the SMRFs and STRFs does not decrease relative to the inter-annual variability in net uptake when N and P limitations are added. Differences in the SMRFs and STRFs and their effect on the soil C balance can also change the sign of some regional sinks. We show that this response is mostly driven by the pool size achieved at the end of the spin-up procedure. Further, there exists a six-fold range in the level

  13. Hypoxia, global warming, and terrestrial late Permian extinctions.

    PubMed

    Huey, Raymond B; Ward, Peter D

    2005-04-15

    A catastrophic extinction occurred at the end of the Permian Period. However, baseline extinction rates appear to have been elevated even before the final catastrophe, suggesting sustained environmental degradation. For terrestrial vertebrates during the Late Permian, the combination of a drop in atmospheric oxygen plus climate warming would have induced hypoxic stress and consequently compressed altitudinal ranges to near sea level. Our simulations suggest that the magnitude of altitudinal compression would have forced extinctions by reducing habitat diversity, fragmenting and isolating populations, and inducing a species-area effect. It also might have delayed ecosystem recovery after the mass extinction.

  14. Hypoxia, global warming, and terrestrial late Permian extinctions.

    PubMed

    Huey, Raymond B; Ward, Peter D

    2005-04-15

    A catastrophic extinction occurred at the end of the Permian Period. However, baseline extinction rates appear to have been elevated even before the final catastrophe, suggesting sustained environmental degradation. For terrestrial vertebrates during the Late Permian, the combination of a drop in atmospheric oxygen plus climate warming would have induced hypoxic stress and consequently compressed altitudinal ranges to near sea level. Our simulations suggest that the magnitude of altitudinal compression would have forced extinctions by reducing habitat diversity, fragmenting and isolating populations, and inducing a species-area effect. It also might have delayed ecosystem recovery after the mass extinction. PMID:15831755

  15. Plasticity in thermal tolerance has limited potential to buffer ectotherms from global warming.

    PubMed

    Gunderson, Alex R; Stillman, Jonathon H

    2015-06-01

    Global warming is increasing the overheating risk for many organisms, though the potential for plasticity in thermal tolerance to mitigate this risk is largely unknown. In part, this shortcoming stems from a lack of knowledge about global and taxonomic patterns of variation in tolerance plasticity. To address this critical issue, we test leading hypotheses for broad-scale variation in ectotherm tolerance plasticity using a dataset that includes vertebrate and invertebrate taxa from terrestrial, freshwater and marine habitats. Contrary to expectation, plasticity in heat tolerance was unrelated to latitude or thermal seasonality. However, plasticity in cold tolerance is associated with thermal seasonality in some habitat types. In addition, aquatic taxa have approximately twice the plasticity of terrestrial taxa. Based on the observed patterns of variation in tolerance plasticity, we propose that limited potential for behavioural plasticity (i.e. behavioural thermoregulation) favours the evolution of greater plasticity in physiological traits, consistent with the 'Bogert effect'. Finally, we find that all ectotherms have relatively low acclimation in thermal tolerance and demonstrate that overheating risk will be minimally reduced by acclimation in even the most plastic groups. Our analysis indicates that behavioural and evolutionary mechanisms will be critical in allowing ectotherms to buffer themselves from extreme temperatures.

  16. Plasticity in thermal tolerance has limited potential to buffer ectotherms from global warming

    PubMed Central

    Gunderson, Alex R.; Stillman, Jonathon H.

    2015-01-01

    Global warming is increasing the overheating risk for many organisms, though the potential for plasticity in thermal tolerance to mitigate this risk is largely unknown. In part, this shortcoming stems from a lack of knowledge about global and taxonomic patterns of variation in tolerance plasticity. To address this critical issue, we test leading hypotheses for broad-scale variation in ectotherm tolerance plasticity using a dataset that includes vertebrate and invertebrate taxa from terrestrial, freshwater and marine habitats. Contrary to expectation, plasticity in heat tolerance was unrelated to latitude or thermal seasonality. However, plasticity in cold tolerance is associated with thermal seasonality in some habitat types. In addition, aquatic taxa have approximately twice the plasticity of terrestrial taxa. Based on the observed patterns of variation in tolerance plasticity, we propose that limited potential for behavioural plasticity (i.e. behavioural thermoregulation) favours the evolution of greater plasticity in physiological traits, consistent with the ‘Bogert effect’. Finally, we find that all ectotherms have relatively low acclimation in thermal tolerance and demonstrate that overheating risk will be minimally reduced by acclimation in even the most plastic groups. Our analysis indicates that behavioural and evolutionary mechanisms will be critical in allowing ectotherms to buffer themselves from extreme temperatures. PMID:25994676

  17. Plasticity in thermal tolerance has limited potential to buffer ectotherms from global warming.

    PubMed

    Gunderson, Alex R; Stillman, Jonathon H

    2015-06-01

    Global warming is increasing the overheating risk for many organisms, though the potential for plasticity in thermal tolerance to mitigate this risk is largely unknown. In part, this shortcoming stems from a lack of knowledge about global and taxonomic patterns of variation in tolerance plasticity. To address this critical issue, we test leading hypotheses for broad-scale variation in ectotherm tolerance plasticity using a dataset that includes vertebrate and invertebrate taxa from terrestrial, freshwater and marine habitats. Contrary to expectation, plasticity in heat tolerance was unrelated to latitude or thermal seasonality. However, plasticity in cold tolerance is associated with thermal seasonality in some habitat types. In addition, aquatic taxa have approximately twice the plasticity of terrestrial taxa. Based on the observed patterns of variation in tolerance plasticity, we propose that limited potential for behavioural plasticity (i.e. behavioural thermoregulation) favours the evolution of greater plasticity in physiological traits, consistent with the 'Bogert effect'. Finally, we find that all ectotherms have relatively low acclimation in thermal tolerance and demonstrate that overheating risk will be minimally reduced by acclimation in even the most plastic groups. Our analysis indicates that behavioural and evolutionary mechanisms will be critical in allowing ectotherms to buffer themselves from extreme temperatures. PMID:25994676

  18. Researchers advance ideas for addressing global CO{sub 2} levels

    SciTech Connect

    1996-11-01

    For millions of years, the presence of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) in the atmosphere was balanced with the natural storager of carbon in the solid phase. In the short term, naturally occurring CO{sub 2} was converted by photosynthesis into trees, plankton, and other plant matter. In the long term, such biomatter was transformed into coal, oil, and other fossil fuels. However, in recent decades, mankind has begun to short circuit this process by combusting ever-increasing amounts of fossil fuel and by destroying large numbers of trees and forests. Although the debate still rages as to the presence and severity of global warming, man`s actions have led to a measurable increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels. Taking a cue from mother nature`s carbon storage cycle, scientists have suggested an alternative process that could address a major anthropogenic source of excess CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere. Although only a conceptual idea at present, the storage of the oxidized carbon from coal combustion in common and abundant minerals might be possible. The process is described in this paper. 1 refs., 1 fig.

  19. Sources of global warming in upper ocean temperature during El Niño

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    White, Warren B.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Mike; Auad, Guillermo

    2001-01-01

    Global average sea surface temperature (SST) from 40°S to 60°N fluctuates ±0.3°C on interannual period scales, with global warming (cooling) during El Niño (La Niña). About 90% of the global warming during El Niño occurs in the tropical global ocean from 20°S to 20°N, half because of large SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific associated with El Niño and the other half because of warm SST anomalies occurring over ∼80% of the tropical global ocean. From examination of National Centers for Environmental Prediction [Kalnay et al., 1996] and Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set [Woodruff et al., 1993] reanalyses, tropical global warming during El Niño is associated with higher troposphere moisture content and cloud cover, with reduced trade wind intensity occurring during the onset phase of El Niño. During this onset phase the tropical global average diabatic heat storage tendency in the layer above the main pycnocline is 1–3 W m−2above normal. Its principal source is a reduction in the poleward Ekman heat flux out of the tropical ocean of 2–5 W m−2. Subsequently, peak tropical global warming during El Niño is dissipated by an increase in the flux of latent heat to the troposphere of 2–5 W m−2, with reduced shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes in response to increased cloud cover tending to cancel each other. In the extratropical global ocean the reduction in poleward Ekman heat flux out of the tropics during the onset of El Niño tends to be balanced by reduction in the flux of latent heat to the troposphere. Thus global warming and cooling during Earth's internal mode of interannual climate variability arise from fluctuations in the global hydrological balance, not the global radiation balance. Since it occurs in the absence of extraterrestrial and anthropogenic forcing, global warming on decadal, interdecadal, and centennial period scales may also occur in association with Earth's internal modes of climate variability on those scales.

  20. Relative effects on global warming of halogenated methanes and ethanes of social and industrial interest

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fisher, Donald A.; Hales, Charles H.; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Sze, N. Dak

    1990-01-01

    The relative potential global warming effects for several halocarbons (chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's)-11, 12, 113, 114, and 115; hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC's) 22, 123, 124, 141b, and 142b; and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC's) 125, 134a, 143a, and 152a; carbon tetrachloride; and methyl chloroform) were calculated by two atmospheric modeling groups. These calculations were based on atmospheric chemistry and radiative convective models to determine the chemical profiles and the radiative processes. The resulting relative greenhouse warming when normalized to the effect of CFC-11 agree reasonably well as long as we account for differences between modeled lifetimes. Differences among results are discussed. Sensitivity of relative warming values is determined with respect to trace gas levels assumed. Transient relative global warming effects are analyzed.

  1. Is Global Warming likely to cause an increased incidence of Malaria?

    PubMed

    Nabi, Sa; Qader, Ss

    2009-03-01

    The rise in the average temperature of earth has been described as global warming which is mainly attributed to the increasing phenomenon of the greenhouse effect. It is believed that global warming can have several harmful effects on human health, both directly and indirectly. Since malaria is greatly influenced by climatic conditions because of its direct relationship with the mosquito population, it is widely assumed that its incidence is likely to increase in a future warmer world.This review article discusses the two contradictory views regarding the association of global warming with an increased incidence of malaria. On one hand, there are many who believe that there is a strong association between the recent increase in malaria incidence and global warming. They predict that as global warming continues, malaria is set to spread in locations where previously it was limited, due to cooler climate. On the other hand, several theories have been put forward which are quite contrary to this prediction. There are multiple other factors which are accountable for the recent upsurge of malaria: for example drug resistance, mosquito control programs, public health facilities, and living standards.

  2. The influence of global warming on natural disasters and their public health outcomes.

    PubMed

    Diaz, James H

    2007-01-01

    With a documented increase in average global surface temperatures of 0.6 degrees C since 1975, Earth now appears to be warming due to a variety of climatic effects, most notably the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities. There remains, however, no universal agreement on how rapidly, regionally, or asymmetrically the planet will warm or on the true impact of global warming on natural disasters and public health outcomes. Most reports to date of the public health impact of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on the increase in heat-stroke deaths following heat waves and on outbreaks of airborne and arthropod-borne diseases following tropical rains and flooding that resulted from fluctuations in ocean temperatures. The effects of global warming on rainfall and drought, tropical cyclone and tsunami activity, and tectonic and volcanic activity will have far-reaching public health effects not only on environmentally associated disease outbreaks but also on global food supplies and population movements. As a result of these and other recognized associations between climate change and public health consequences, many of which have been confounded by deficiencies in public health infrastructure and scientific debates over whether climate changes are spawned by atmospheric cycles or anthropogenic influences, the active responses to progressive climate change must include combinations of economic, environmental, legal, regulatory, and, most importantly, public health measures.

  3. Addressing Global Environmental Challenges through Interdisciplinary Biogeochemical Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paytan, A.

    2013-12-01

    Our planet is dynamic; energy and matter constantly move between the hydrosphere, atmosphere and lithosphere on time scales from seconds to millenia. These tight interactions - including those between organisms and their physical environment - are what make Earth habitable. However, as Rachel Carson wrote, 'Only within the moment of time represented by the present century has one species - man - acquired significant power to alter the nature of this world'. Globalization and explosive population growth have generated far-reaching environmental problems on a scale that humanity has never faced before. Fortunately, our species has also developed an unprecedented ability to provide science-based solutions. Since processes impacting the environment involve complex biological, physical, chemical and geological interactions and feedbacks, they require the integration of expertise from all these scientific disciplines as well as input from policy makers, social scientists, and economists. This talk presents four examples of current interdisciplinary research projects conducted in my lab, each one related to a theme from one of Carson's books (Under the Sea-wind, The Sea Around Us, The Edge of the Sea, and Silent Spring). These projects, and others like them, provide hope that we can move toward a sustainable relationship with the natural world by encouraging the best scientists to conduct interdisciplinary research with direct applications for environmental management and stewardship.

  4. Workshop Builds Strategies to Address Global Positioning System Vulnerabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fisher, Genene

    2011-01-01

    When we examine the impacts of space weather on society, do we really understand the risks? Can past experiences reliably predict what will happen in the future? As the complexity of technology increases, there is the potential for it to become more fragile, allowing for a single point of failure to bring down the entire system. Take the Global Positioning System (GPS) as an example. GPS positioning, navigation, and timing have become an integral part of daily life, supporting transportation and communications systems vital to the aviation, merchant marine, cargo, cellular phone, surveying, and oil exploration industries. Everyday activities such as banking, mobile phone operations, and even the control of power grids are facilitated by the accurate timing provided by GPS. Understanding the risks of space weather to GPS and the many economic sectors reliant upon it, as well as how to build resilience, was the focus of a policy workshop organized by the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and held on 13-14 October 2010 in Washington, D. C. The workshop brought together a select group of policy makers, space weather scientists, and GPS experts and users.

  5. Addressing the Global Burden of Trauma in Major Surgery.

    PubMed

    Dobson, Geoffrey P

    2015-01-01

    Despite a technically perfect procedure, surgical stress can determine the success or failure of an operation. Surgical trauma is often referred to as the "neglected step-child" of global health in terms of patient numbers, mortality, morbidity, and costs. A staggering 234 million major surgeries are performed every year, and depending upon country and institution, up to 4% of patients will die before leaving hospital, up to 15% will have serious post-operative morbidity, and 5-15% will be readmitted within 30 days. These percentages equate to around 1000 deaths and 4000 major complications every hour, and it has been estimated that 50% may be preventable. New frontline drugs are urgently required to make major surgery safer for the patient and more predictable for the surgeon. We review the basic physiology of the stress response from neuroendocrine to genomic systems, and discuss the paucity of clinical data supporting the use of statins, beta-adrenergic blockers and calcium-channel blockers. Since cardiac-related complications are the most common, particularly in the elderly, a key strategy would be to improve ventricular-arterial coupling to safeguard the endothelium and maintain tissue oxygenation. Reduced O2 supply is associated with glycocalyx shedding, decreased endothelial barrier function, fluid leakage, inflammation, and coagulopathy. A healthy endothelium may prevent these "secondary hit" complications, including possibly immunosuppression. Thus, the four pillars of whole body resynchronization during surgical trauma, and targets for new therapies, are: (1) the CNS, (2) the heart, (3) arterial supply and venous return functions, and (4) the endothelium. This is termed the Central-Cardio-Vascular-Endothelium (CCVE) coupling hypothesis. Since similar sterile injury cascades exist in critical illness, accidental trauma, hemorrhage, cardiac arrest, infection and burns, new drugs that improve CCVE coupling may find wide utility in civilian and military

  6. Addressing the Global Burden of Trauma in Major Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Dobson, Geoffrey P.

    2015-01-01

    Despite a technically perfect procedure, surgical stress can determine the success or failure of an operation. Surgical trauma is often referred to as the “neglected step-child” of global health in terms of patient numbers, mortality, morbidity, and costs. A staggering 234 million major surgeries are performed every year, and depending upon country and institution, up to 4% of patients will die before leaving hospital, up to 15% will have serious post-operative morbidity, and 5–15% will be readmitted within 30 days. These percentages equate to around 1000 deaths and 4000 major complications every hour, and it has been estimated that 50% may be preventable. New frontline drugs are urgently required to make major surgery safer for the patient and more predictable for the surgeon. We review the basic physiology of the stress response from neuroendocrine to genomic systems, and discuss the paucity of clinical data supporting the use of statins, beta-adrenergic blockers and calcium-channel blockers. Since cardiac-related complications are the most common, particularly in the elderly, a key strategy would be to improve ventricular-arterial coupling to safeguard the endothelium and maintain tissue oxygenation. Reduced O2 supply is associated with glycocalyx shedding, decreased endothelial barrier function, fluid leakage, inflammation, and coagulopathy. A healthy endothelium may prevent these “secondary hit” complications, including possibly immunosuppression. Thus, the four pillars of whole body resynchronization during surgical trauma, and targets for new therapies, are: (1) the CNS, (2) the heart, (3) arterial supply and venous return functions, and (4) the endothelium. This is termed the Central-Cardio-Vascular-Endothelium (CCVE) coupling hypothesis. Since similar sterile injury cascades exist in critical illness, accidental trauma, hemorrhage, cardiac arrest, infection and burns, new drugs that improve CCVE coupling may find wide utility in civilian and

  7. Identifying Like-Minded Audiences for Global Warming Public Engagement Campaigns: An Audience Segmentation Analysis and Tool Development

    PubMed Central

    Maibach, Edward W.; Leiserowitz, Anthony; Roser-Renouf, Connie; Mertz, C. K.

    2011-01-01

    Background Achieving national reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will require public support for climate and energy policies and changes in population behaviors. Audience segmentation – a process of identifying coherent groups within a population – can be used to improve the effectiveness of public engagement campaigns. Methodology/Principal Findings In Fall 2008, we conducted a nationally representative survey of American adults (n = 2,164) to identify audience segments for global warming public engagement campaigns. By subjecting multiple measures of global warming beliefs, behaviors, policy preferences, and issue engagement to latent class analysis, we identified six distinct segments ranging in size from 7 to 33% of the population. These six segments formed a continuum, from a segment of people who were highly worried, involved and supportive of policy responses (18%), to a segment of people who were completely unconcerned and strongly opposed to policy responses (7%). Three of the segments (totaling 70%) were to varying degrees concerned about global warming and supportive of policy responses, two (totaling 18%) were unsupportive, and one was largely disengaged (12%), having paid little attention to the issue. Certain behaviors and policy preferences varied greatly across these audiences, while others did not. Using discriminant analysis, we subsequently developed 36-item and 15-item instruments that can be used to categorize respondents with 91% and 84% accuracy, respectively. Conclusions/Significance In late 2008, Americans supported a broad range of policies and personal actions to reduce global warming, although there was wide variation among the six identified audiences. To enhance the impact of campaigns, government agencies, non-profit organizations, and businesses seeking to engage the public can selectively target one or more of these audiences rather than address an undifferentiated general population. Our screening instruments are

  8. Global warming reduces plant reproductive output for temperate multi-inflorescence species on the Tibetan plateau.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yinzhan; Mu, Junpeng; Niklas, Karl J; Li, Guoyong; Sun, Shucun

    2012-07-01

    • Temperature is projected to increase more during the winter than during the summer in cold regions. The effects of winter warming on reproductive effort have not been examined for temperate plant species. • Here, we report the results of experimentally induced seasonal winter warming (0.4 and 2.4°C increases in growing and nongrowing seasons, respectively, using warmed and ambient open-top chambers in a Tibetan Plateau alpine meadow) for nine indeterminate-growing species producing multiple (single-flowered or multi-flowered) inflorescences and three determinate-growing species producing single inflorescences after a 3-yr period of warming. • Warming reduced significantly flower number and seed production per plant for all nine multi-inflorescence species, but not for the three single-inflorescence species. Warming had an insignificant effect on the fruit to flower number ratio, seed size and seed number per fruit among species. The reduction in seed production was largely attributable to the decline in flower number per plant. The flowering onset time was unaffected for nine of the 12 species. Therefore, the decline in flower production and seed production in response to winter warming probably reflects a physiological response (e.g. metabolic changes associated with flower production). • Collectively, the data indicate that global warming may reduce flower and seed production for temperate herbaceous species and will probably have a differential effect on single- vs multi-inflorescence species.

  9. Increasing climate extremes under global warming - What is the driving force?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, J.; Wang, S. Y.; Gillies, R. R.; Hipps, L.; Kravitz, B.; Rasch, P. J.

    2015-12-01

    More climate extreme events have occurred in recent years, including the continual development of extreme drought in California, the severe cold winters in the eastern U.S. since 2014, 2015 Washington drought, and excessive wildfire events over Alaska in 2015. These have been casually attributed to global warming. However, a need for further understanding of mechanisms responsible for climate extremes is growing. In this presentation, we'll use sets of climate model simulation that designed to identify the role of the oceanic feedback in increasing climate extremes under global warming. One is with a fully coupled climate model forced by 1% ramping CO2, and the other is with an atmosphere only model forced by the same CO2 forcing. By contrasting these two, an importance of the oceanic feedback in increasing climate extremes under global warming can be diagnosed.

  10. An Inconvenient Truth. The Planetary Emergency of Global Warming and What We Can Do About It

    SciTech Connect

    Gore, Al

    2006-06-15

    This book is published to tie in with a documentary film of the same name. Both the book and film were inspired by a series of multimedia presentations on global warming that the author created and delivers to groups around the world. With this book, Gore, brings together leading-edge research from top scientists around the world; photographs, charts, and other illustrations; and personal anecdotes and observations to document the fast pace and wide scope of global warming. He presents, with alarming clarity and conclusiveness, and with humor, too, that the fact of global warming is not in question and that its consequences for the world we live in will be disastrous if left unchecked.

  11. Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernstein, Diana N.; Neelin, J. David

    2016-06-01

    A branch-run perturbed-physics ensemble in the Community Earth System Model estimates impacts of parameters in the deep convection scheme on current hydroclimate and on end-of-century precipitation change projections under global warming. Regional precipitation change patterns prove highly sensitive to these parameters, especially in the tropics with local changes exceeding 3 mm/d, comparable to the magnitude of the predicted change and to differences in global warming predictions among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. This sensitivity is distributed nonlinearly across the feasible parameter range, notably in the low-entrainment range of the parameter for turbulent entrainment in the deep convection scheme. This suggests that a useful target for parameter sensitivity studies is to identify such disproportionately sensitive "dangerous ranges." The low-entrainment range is used to illustrate the reduction in global warming regional precipitation sensitivity that could occur if this dangerous range can be excluded based on evidence from current climate.

  12. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.

    PubMed

    Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

    2013-09-19

    Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.

  13. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.

    PubMed

    Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

    2013-09-19

    Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase. PMID:23995690

  14. Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming

    PubMed Central

    Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

    2016-01-01

    Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves. PMID:26951654

  15. Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

    2016-03-22

    Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves. PMID:26951654

  16. Sources of global warming of the upper ocean on decadal period scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    White, Warren B.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.

    2003-01-01

    Recent studies find global climate variability in the upper ocean and lower atmosphere during the twentieth century dominated by quasi-biennial, interannual, quasi-decadal and interdecadal signals. The quasi-decadal signal in upper ocean temperature undergoes global warming/cooling of ???0.1??C, similar to that occuring with the interannual signal (i.e., El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation), both signals dominated by global warming/cooling in the tropics. From the National Centers for Environmental Prediction troposphere reanalysis and Scripps Institution of Oceanography upper ocean temperature reanalysis we examine the quasi-decadal global tropical diabetic heat storage (DHS) budget from 1975 to 2000. We find the anomalous DHS warming tendency of 0.3-0.9 W m-2 driven principally by a downward global tropical latent-plus-sensible heat flux anomaly into the ocean, overwhelming the tendency by weaker upward shortwave-minus-longwave heat flux anomaly to drive an anomalous DHS cooling tendency. During the peak quasi-decadal warming the estimated dissipation of DHS anomaly of 0.2-0.5 W m-2 into the deep ocean and a similar loss to the overlying atmosphere through air-sea heat flux anomaly are balanced by a decrease in the net poleward Ekman heat advection out of the tropics of 0.4-0.7 W m-2. This scenario is nearly the opposite of that accounting for global tropical warming during the El Nin??o. These diagnostics confirm that even though the global quasi-decadal signal is phase-locked to the 11-year signal in the Sun's surface radiative forcing of ???0.1 W m-2, the anomalous global tropical DHS tendency cannot be driven by it directly.

  17. CLIMATE CHANGE. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus.

    PubMed

    Karl, Thomas R; Arguez, Anthony; Huang, Boyin; Lawrimore, Jay H; McMahon, James R; Menne, Matthew J; Peterson, Thomas C; Vose, Russell S; Zhang, Huai-Min

    2015-06-26

    Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming "hiatus." Here, we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a "slowdown" in the increase of global surface temperature.

  18. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karl, Thomas R.; Arguez, Anthony; Huang, Boyin; Lawrimore, Jay H.; McMahon, James R.; Menne, Matthew J.; Peterson, Thomas C.; Vose, Russell S.; Zhang, Huai-Min

    2015-06-01

    Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming “hiatus.” Here, we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a “slowdown” in the increase of global surface temperature.

  19. Geomorphic Response to Global Warming in the Anthropocene: Levee Breaches in California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Florsheim, J. L.; Dettinger, M.; Malamud-Roam, F.; Ingram, B.; Mount, J.

    2006-12-01

    Geomorphic processes in rivers are likely to be influenced by global warming through alterations of flood, erosion, and sedimentation processes and rates. In California's Sierra Nevada, warming scenarios imply future increases in magnitudes and durations (and changes in timing) of floods as snow packs diminish and rainfall runoff increasingly dominates flow into the Central Valley fluvial system. Geomorphic processes are likely to differ from processes that dominated during the Holocene due to the influence both of projected global warming and land use alterations including levee construction that narrows and separates Sacramento-San Joaquin Rivers and tributaries from floodplains and flow regulation downstream of numerous large dams. Whereas Holocene floods induced overbank flow and avulsion processes that led to vertical floodplain accretion and variability of stages in aggrading multiple-channel systems, modern floods largely transport flow and sediment within incised channels confined by levees. Because the scenarios of warming are developed at coarse scales, only an understanding of the relations between large-scale hydrology and climate on the one hand, and the incidence of levee breaches on the other, will make it possible to project likely geomorphic responses to future warming and flooding. A historical record of catastrophic levee breaks on the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers has been developed to allow analyses of these connections. In the current work, we develop statistical relations between historical levee break events and flow discharge, as well as with climatic phenomena such as El Nino and La Nina phases of the ENSO cycle, positive and negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and seasonal propensities towards "pineapple-express" storms. Preliminary results suggest strong relations between levee breaches and discharge, but poor relations to ENSO. Further investigation of these data will provide insight to help inform models and river

  20. Tracking bacterial responses to global warming with an ecotype-based systematics.

    PubMed

    Cohan, F M

    2009-01-01

    The broadly defined species of bacterial systematics frequently contain unnamed and unrecognized populations (ecotypes) differing in physiology, genome content, and ecology. Without formal recognition of such ecotypes, it is difficult for microbial ecologists to detect replacement of one ecotype by another in the face of global warming. The ecotype simulation algorithm has proved capable of supporting investigation of such replacements, as it has detected temperature-distinguished ecotypes that are invisible to the present bacterial systematics. Creating an ecotype-based systematics will help to identify the units of diversity that we will want to track as we seek to observe the early microbial responses to global warming.

  1. BioFacts: Fueling a stronger economy, Global warming and biofuels emissions

    SciTech Connect

    1994-12-01

    The focus of numerous federal and state regulations being proposed and approved today is the reduction of automobile emissions -- particularly carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), which is the greenhouse gas considered responsible for global warming. Studies conducted by the USDOE through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) indicate that the production and use of biofuels such as biodiesel, ethanol, and methanol could nearly eliminate the contribution of net CO{sub 2} from automobiles. This fact sheet provides and overview of global warming, followed by a summary of NREL`s study results.

  2. The role of emotion in global warming policy support and opposition.

    PubMed

    Smith, Nicholas; Leiserowitz, Anthony

    2014-05-01

    Prior research has found that affect and affective imagery strongly influence public support for global warming. This article extends this literature by exploring the separate influence of discrete emotions. Utilizing a nationally representative survey in the United States, this study found that discrete emotions were stronger predictors of global warming policy support than cultural worldviews, negative affect, image associations, or sociodemographic variables. In particular, worry, interest, and hope were strongly associated with increased policy support. The results contribute to experiential theories of risk information processing and suggest that discrete emotions play a significant role in public support for climate change policy. Implications for climate change communication are also discussed.

  3. Making sense of global warming: Norwegians appropriating knowledge of anthropogenic climate change.

    PubMed

    Ryghaug, Marianne; Sørensen, Knut Holtan; Naess, Robert

    2011-11-01

    This paper studies how people reason about and make sense of human-made global warming, based on ten focus group interviews with Norwegian citizens. It shows that the domestication of climate science knowledge was shaped through five sense-making devices: news media coverage of changes in nature, particularly the weather, the coverage of presumed experts' disagreement about global warming, critical attitudes towards media, observations of political inaction, and considerations with respect to everyday life. These sense-making devices allowed for ambiguous outcomes, and the paper argues four main outcomes with respect to the domestication processes: the acceptors, the tempered acceptors, the uncertain and the sceptics.

  4. The Role of Emotion in Global Warming Policy Support and Opposition

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Nicholas; Leiserowitz, Anthony

    2014-01-01

    Prior research has found that affect and affective imagery strongly influence public support for global warming. This article extends this literature by exploring the separate influence of discrete emotions. Utilizing a nationally representative survey in the United States, this study found that discrete emotions were stronger predictors of global warming policy support than cultural worldviews, negative affect, image associations, or sociodemographic variables. In particular, worry, interest, and hope were strongly associated with increased policy support. The results contribute to experiential theories of risk information processing and suggest that discrete emotions play a significant role in public support for climate change policy. Implications for climate change communication are also discussed. PMID:24219420

  5. The MJO and global warming: a study in CCSM4

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Subramanian, Aneesh; Jochum, Markus; Miller, Arthur J.; Neale, Richard; Seo, Hyodae; Waliser, Duane; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2014-04-01

    The change in Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) amplitude and variance in response to anthropogenic climate change is assessed in the 1° nominal resolution community climate system model, version 4 (CCSM4), which has a reasonable representation of the MJO characteristics both dynamically and statistically. The twentieth century CCSM4 run is compared with the warmest twenty-first century projection (representative concentration pathway 8.5, or RCP8.5). The last 20 years of each simulation are compared in their MJO characteristics, including spatial variance distributions of winds, precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation, histograms of event amplitude, phase and duration, and composite maps of phases. The RCP8.5 run exhibits increased variance in intraseasonal precipitation, larger-amplitude MJO events, stronger MJO rainfall in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, and a greater frequency of MJO occurrence for phases corresponding to enhanced rainfall in the Indian Ocean sector. These features are consistent with the concept of an increased magnitude for the hydrological cycle under greenhouse warming conditions. Conversely, the number of active MJO days decreases and fewer weak MJO events occur in the future climate state. These results motivate further study of these changes since tropical rainfall variability plays such an important role in the region's socio-economic well being.

  6. Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall

    PubMed Central

    Grandey, B. S.; Wang, C.

    2015-01-01

    Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate. PMID:26293204

  7. Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grandey, B. S.; Wang, C.

    2015-08-01

    Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate.

  8. Urban amplification of the global warming in Moscow megacity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kislov, Alexander; Konstantinov, Pavel; Varentsov, Mikhail; Samsonov, Timofey; Gorlach, Irina; Trusilova, Kristina

    2015-04-01

    Climate changes in the large cities are very important and requires better understanding. The focus of this paper is climate change of the Moscow megacity. Its urban features strongly influence the atmospheric boundary layer above the Moscow agglomeration area and determine the microclimatic features of the local environment, such as urban heat island (UHI). Available meteorological observations within the Moscow urban area and surrounding territory allow us to assess the natural climate variations and human-induced climate warming separately. To obtain more precisely viewing on the UHI structure we have included into the analysis the satellite data (Meteosat-10), providing temperature and humidity profiles with high resolution. To investigate the mechanism of the urban amplification we realized the regional climate model COSMO-CLM+TEB. Apart from detailed climate research the model runs will be planned for climate projecting of Moscow agglomeration area. Climate change differences between urban and rural areas are determined by changes of the shape of the UHI and their relationships with changes of building height and density. Therefore, the urban module of COSMO-CLM+TEB model is fed by information from special GIS database contenting both geometric characteristics of the urban canyons and other characteristics of the urban surface. The sources of information were maps belonging to the OpenStreetMap, and digital elevation models SRTM90 and ASTER GDEM v.2 as well. The multiscale GIS database allows us to generate such kind of information with different spatial resolution (200, 500 and 1000 meters).

  9. Hypogean carabid beetles as indicators of global warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brandmayr, Pietro; Giorgi, Filippo; Casale, Achille; Colombetta, Giorgio; Mariotti, Laura; Vigna Taglianti, Augusto; Weber, Friedrich; Pizzolotto, Roberto

    2013-12-01

    Climate change has been shown to impact the geographical and altitudinal distribution of animals and plants, and to especially affect range-restricted polar and mountaintop species. However, little is known about the impact on the relict lineages of cave animals. Ground beetles (carabids) show a wide variety of evolutionary pathways, from soil-surface (epigean) predatory habits to life in caves and in other subterranean (hypogean) compartments. We reconstructed an unprecedented set of species/time accumulation curves of the largest carabid genera in Europe, selected by their degree of ‘underground’ adaptation, from true epigean predators to eyeless highly specialized hypogean beetles. The data show that in recent periods an unexpectedly large number of new cave species were found lying in well established European hotspots; the first peak of new species, especially in the most evolved underground taxa, occurred in the 1920-30s and a second burst after the 70s. Temperature data show large warming rates in both periods, suggesting that the temperature increase in the past century might have induced cave species to expand their habitats into large well-aired cavities and superficial underground compartments, where they can be easily sampled. An alternative hypothesis, based on increased sampling intensity, is less supported by available datasets.

  10. Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall.

    PubMed

    Grandey, B S; Wang, C

    2015-01-01

    Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate. PMID:26293204

  11. After Kyoto, science still probes global warming causes

    SciTech Connect

    Westbrook, G.

    1998-01-19

    The Kyoto meeting has come and gone. In the US, the treaty still has to be signed by President Bill Clinton and ratified by the Senate, an action that is most unlikely in view of last year`s 95-0 vote on the issue. In the short term 36 senators are up for reelection in November and therefore likely to come under intense pressure to change their positions, to support the Kyoto treaty, and to push for Senate action. Senators will need support, additional inputs, and overall reinforcement of their positions. One area that this writer believes still has much to offer in this context is the quality--more specifically, the lack of quality--of much of the scientific evidence behind this treaty. Part of that subject is the natural variability in the climate. Natural climate variability is based on cyclical forces, random events, and the Earth`s response to these two factors. These forces create the variability in the climate, the background noise above which any signal of anthropogenic warming must rise in order to be detected. A review of key climatic cycles is the subject of this article.

  12. Contrasting responses of Central Asian rock glaciers to global warming.

    PubMed

    Sorg, Annina; Kääb, Andreas; Roesch, Andrea; Bigler, Christof; Stoffel, Markus

    2015-02-06

    While the responses of Tien Shan glaciers--and glaciers elsewhere--to climatic changes are becoming increasingly well understood, this is less the case for permafrost in general and for rock glaciers in particular. We use a novel approach to describe the climate sensitivity of rock glaciers and to reconstruct periods of high and low rock glacier activity in the Tien Shan since 1895. Using more than 1500 growth anomalies from 280 trees growing on rock glacier bodies, repeat aerial photography from Soviet archives and high-resolution satellite imagery, we present here the world's longest record of rock glacier movements. We also demonstrate that the rock glaciers exhibit synchronous periods of activity at decadal timescales. Despite the complex energy-balance processes on rock glaciers, periods of enhanced activity coincide with warm summers, and the annual mass balance of Tuyuksu glacier fluctuates asynchronously with rock glacier activity. At multi-decadal timescales, however, the investigated rock glaciers exhibit site-specific trends reflecting different stages of inactivation, seemingly in response to the strong increase in air temperature since the 1970s.

  13. Contrasting responses of Central Asian rock glaciers to global warming

    PubMed Central

    Sorg, Annina; Kääb, Andreas; Roesch, Andrea; Bigler, Christof; Stoffel, Markus

    2015-01-01

    While the responses of Tien Shan glaciers – and glaciers elsewhere – to climatic changes are becoming increasingly well understood, this is less the case for permafrost in general and for rock glaciers in particular. We use a novel approach to describe the climate sensitivity of rock glaciers and to reconstruct periods of high and low rock glacier activity in the Tien Shan since 1895. Using more than 1500 growth anomalies from 280 trees growing on rock glacier bodies, repeat aerial photography from Soviet archives and high-resolution satellite imagery, we present here the world's longest record of rock glacier movements. We also demonstrate that the rock glaciers exhibit synchronous periods of activity at decadal timescales. Despite the complex energy-balance processes on rock glaciers, periods of enhanced activity coincide with warm summers, and the annual mass balance of Tuyuksu glacier fluctuates asynchronously with rock glacier activity. At multi-decadal timescales, however, the investigated rock glaciers exhibit site-specific trends reflecting different stages of inactivation, seemingly in response to the strong increase in air temperature since the 1970s. PMID:25657095

  14. Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall.

    PubMed

    Grandey, B S; Wang, C

    2015-08-21

    Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate.

  15. Climatic unpredictability and parasitism of caterpillars: implications of global warming.

    PubMed

    Stireman, J O; Dyer, L A; Janzen, D H; Singer, M S; Lill, J T; Marquis, R J; Ricklefs, R E; Gentry, G L; Hallwachs, W; Coley, P D; Barone, J A; Greeney, H F; Connahs, H; Barbosa, P; Morais, H C; Diniz, I R

    2005-11-29

    Insect outbreaks are expected to increase in frequency and intensity with projected changes in global climate through direct effects of climate change on insect populations and through disruption of community interactions. Although there is much concern about mean changes in global climate, the impact of climatic variability itself on species interactions has been little explored. Here, we compare caterpillar-parasitoid interactions across a broad gradient of climatic variability and find that the combined data in 15 geographically dispersed databases show a decrease in levels of parasitism as climatic variability increases. The dominant contribution to this pattern by relatively specialized parasitoid wasps suggests that climatic variability impairs the ability of parasitoids to track host populations. Given the important role of parasitoids in regulating insect herbivore populations in natural and managed systems, we predict an increase in the frequency and intensity of herbivore outbreaks through a disruption of enemy-herbivore dynamics as climates become more variable.

  16. Personal efficacy, the information environment, and attitudes toward global warming and climate change in the United States.

    PubMed

    Kellstedt, Paul M; Zahran, Sammy; Vedlitz, Arnold

    2008-02-01

    Despite the growing scientific consensus about the risks of global warming and climate change, the mass media frequently portray the subject as one of great scientific controversy and debate. And yet previous studies of the mass public's subjective assessments of the risks of global warming and climate change have not sufficiently examined public informedness, public confidence in climate scientists, and the role of personal efficacy in affecting global warming outcomes. By examining the results of a survey on an original and representative sample of Americans, we find that these three forces-informedness, confidence in scientists, and personal efficacy-are related in interesting and unexpected ways, and exert significant influence on risk assessments of global warming and climate change. In particular, more informed respondents both feel less personally responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. We also find that confidence in scientists has unexpected effects: respondents with high confidence in scientists feel less responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. These results have substantial implications for the interaction between scientists and the public in general, and for the public discussion of global warming and climate change in particular.

  17. Constraint to adaptive evolution in response to global warming.

    PubMed

    Etterson, J R; Shaw, R G

    2001-10-01

    We characterized the genetic architecture of three populations of a native North American prairie plant in field conditions that simulate the warmer and more arid climates predicted by global climate models. Despite genetic variance for traits under selection, among-trait genetic correlations that are antagonistic to the direction of selection limit adaptive evolution within these populations. Predicted rates of evolutionary response are much slower than the predicted rate of climate change.

  18. Investigations into Wetland Carbon Sequestration as Remediation for Global Warming

    SciTech Connect

    Thom, Ronald M.; Blanton, Susan L.; Borde, Amy B.; Williams, Greg D.; Woodruff, Dana L.; Huesemann, Michael H.; KW Nehring and SE Brauning

    2002-01-01

    Wetlands can potentially sequester vast amounts of carbon. However, over 50% of wetlands globally have been degraded or lost. Restoration of wetland systems may therefore result in increased sequestration of carbon. Preliminary results of our investigations into atmospheric carbon sequestration by restored coastal wetlands indicate that carbon can be sequestered in substantial quantities in the first 2-50 years after restoration of natural hydrology and sediment accretion processes.

  19. 135 years of global ocean warming between the Challenger expedition and the Argo Programme

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roemmich, Dean; John Gould, W.; Gilson, John

    2012-06-01

    Changing temperature throughout the oceans is a key indicator of climate change. Since the 1960s about 90% of the excess heat added to the Earth's climate system has been stored in the oceans. The ocean's dominant role over the atmosphere, land, or cryosphere comes from its high heat capacity and ability to remove heat from the sea surface by currents and mixing. The longest interval over which instrumental records of subsurface global-scale temperature can be compared is the 135 years between the voyage of HMS Challenger (1872-1876) and the modern data set of the Argo Programme (2004-2010). Argo's unprecedented global coverage permits its comparison with any earlier measurements. This, the first global-scale comparison of Challenger and modern data, shows spatial mean warming at the surface of 0.59°C+/-0.12, consistent with previous estimates of globally averaged sea surface temperature increase. Below the surface the mean warming decreases to 0.39°C+/-0.18 at 366m (200fathoms) and 0.12°C+/-0.07 at 914m (500fathoms). The 0.33°C+/-0.14 average temperature difference from 0 to 700m is twice the value observed globally in that depth range over the past 50 years, implying a centennial timescale for the present rate of global warming. Warming in the Atlantic Ocean is stronger than in the Pacific. Systematic errors in the Challenger data mean that these temperature changes are a lower bound on the actual values. This study underlines the scientific significance of the Challenger expedition and the modern Argo Programme and indicates that globally the oceans have been warming at least since the late-nineteenth or early-twentieth century.

  20. Trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus.

    PubMed

    Yan, Shao-Min; Wu, Guang

    2009-12-01

    The global warming is an important factor affecting the biological evolution, and the influenza is an important disease that threatens humans with possible epidemics or pandemics. In this study, we attempted to analyze the trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus, because this protein is a target of anti-flu drug, and its mutation would have significant effect on the resistance to anti-flu drugs. The evolution of matrix protein 2 of influenza A virus from 1959 to 2008 was defined using the unpredictable portion of amino-acid pair predictability. Then the trend in this evolution was compared with the trend in the global temperature, the temperature in north and south hemispheres, and the temperature in influenza A virus sampling site, and species carrying influenza A virus. The results showed the similar trends in global warming and in evolution of M2 proteins although we could not correlate them at this stage of study. The study suggested the potential impact of global warming on the evolution of proteins from influenza A virus.

  1. What do global warming impacts really mean to U.S. industry?

    SciTech Connect

    Bendel, W.B.

    1994-12-31

    This paper will explore real-world impacts that global warming could have on US industry. The question of dealing with global warming is, to some extent, an exercise in probability or relative risk management. The difficult part is separating fact from fiction. There is another issue that arises in this intense debate regarding impacts on business and policy. This is the question of whether the impacts are real or only perceived. As the authors have been seen in several environmental situations, the difference between a real or perceived impact can be academic, since a perceived risk often produces real impacts. This paper presents a discussion on what companies can and should do to minimize the perceived risk of global warming on their bottom lines. That is, the basic question is, how can businesses today manage this risk so that objective business decisions can be made? Problems that could be directly or indirectly embedded in the global warming controversy are examined. These include financial, engineering, and international aspects of global climate change. This discussion will include possible impacts on the utility, agricultural, insurance, and financial industries.

  2. Linking Southwest U.S. Drought to the Hiatus in Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoerling, M. P.; Quan, X. W.; Livneh, B.

    2014-12-01

    Weather and climate of the new millennium has been unkind to the Southwest United States. Precipitation has been deficient, especially compared to prior decades of the late 20thCentury. Temperatures have been consistently above historical averages. And drought conditions have prevailed for a period now stretching 15 years in duration. Impacts of these dry and warm conditions have included compromised health of forests and ecosystems, more wildfires, reduced water resources most notably the declining elevations of Lake Mead and Powell and substantially diminished annual flows in the Colorado River. The question remains open concerning the extent to which this protracted drought episode is strongly a symptom of human induced climate change. While the prolonged drought, including its recent regional expression over California, has been unusually severe relative to droughts of the 20thCentury, some droughts in the paleoclimate record were more severe. To be sure, various studies have detected the consequences of warming temperatures on the hydrologic cycle over the greater western United States, but the drought's severity has principally resulted from deficient rains, the cause for which has yet to been determined. Here we present results from analysis of historical climate simulations to determine the factors contributing to a protracted reduction in Southwest regional precipitation. A parallel set of 2000 year-long equilibrium coupled ocean-atmosphere experiments, one subjected to late 19th Century radiative forcing and a second subjected to early 21st Century radiative forcing, is used to explore attributable impacts of long-term anthropogenic climate change. Historical atmospheric climate simulations are also used to address the effects of the specific observed evolution of sea surface temperatures. These are characterized by appreciable natural variations, one feature of which has been a cooling in the tropical east Pacific during the last 15 years related to the

  3. Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time.

    PubMed

    Elmendorf, Sarah C; Henry, Gregory H R; Hollister, Robert D; Björk, Robert G; Bjorkman, Anne D; Callaghan, Terry V; Collier, Laura Siegwart; Cooper, Elisabeth J; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Day, Thomas A; Fosaa, Anna Maria; Gould, William A; Grétarsdóttir, Járngerður; Harte, John; Hermanutz, Luise; Hik, David S; Hofgaard, Annika; Jarrad, Frith; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg Svala; Keuper, Frida; Klanderud, Kari; Klein, Julia A; Koh, Saewan; Kudo, Gaku; Lang, Simone I; Loewen, Val; May, Jeremy L; Mercado, Joel; Michelsen, Anders; Molau, Ulf; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Oberbauer, Steven F; Pieper, Sara; Post, Eric; Rixen, Christian; Robinson, Clare H; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Shaver, Gaius R; Stenström, Anna; Tolvanen, Anne; Totland, Orjan; Troxler, Tiffany; Wahren, Carl-Henrik; Webber, Patrick J; Welker, Jeffery M; Wookey, Philip A

    2012-02-01

    Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed. There was little indication of saturating or accelerating effects, as would be predicted if negative or positive vegetation feedbacks were common. These results indicate that tundra vegetation exhibits strong regional variation in response to warming, and that in vulnerable regions, cumulative effects of long-term warming on tundra vegetation - and associated ecosystem consequences - have the potential to be much greater than we have observed to date. PMID:22136670

  4. Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time.

    PubMed

    Elmendorf, Sarah C; Henry, Gregory H R; Hollister, Robert D; Björk, Robert G; Bjorkman, Anne D; Callaghan, Terry V; Collier, Laura Siegwart; Cooper, Elisabeth J; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Day, Thomas A; Fosaa, Anna Maria; Gould, William A; Grétarsdóttir, Járngerður; Harte, John; Hermanutz, Luise; Hik, David S; Hofgaard, Annika; Jarrad, Frith; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg Svala; Keuper, Frida; Klanderud, Kari; Klein, Julia A; Koh, Saewan; Kudo, Gaku; Lang, Simone I; Loewen, Val; May, Jeremy L; Mercado, Joel; Michelsen, Anders; Molau, Ulf; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Oberbauer, Steven F; Pieper, Sara; Post, Eric; Rixen, Christian; Robinson, Clare H; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Shaver, Gaius R; Stenström, Anna; Tolvanen, Anne; Totland, Orjan; Troxler, Tiffany; Wahren, Carl-Henrik; Webber, Patrick J; Welker, Jeffery M; Wookey, Philip A

    2012-02-01

    Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed. There was little indication of saturating or accelerating effects, as would be predicted if negative or positive vegetation feedbacks were common. These results indicate that tundra vegetation exhibits strong regional variation in response to warming, and that in vulnerable regions, cumulative effects of long-term warming on tundra vegetation - and associated ecosystem consequences - have the potential to be much greater than we have observed to date.

  5. The effect of global warming on lightning frequencies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Price, Colin; Rind, David

    1990-01-01

    The first attempt to model global lightning distributions by using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM is reported. Three sets of observations showing the relationship between lightning frequency and cloud top height are shown. Zonally averaged lightning frequency observed by satellite are compared with those calculated using the GISS GCM, and fair agreement is found. The change in lightning frequency for a double CO2 climate is calculated and found to be nearly 2.23 x 10 exp 6 extra lightning flashes per day.

  6. Effects of Global Warming on Ancient Mammalian Communities and Their Environments

    PubMed Central

    DeSantis, Larisa R. G.; Feranec, Robert S.; MacFadden, Bruce J.

    2009-01-01

    Background Current global warming affects the composition and dynamics of mammalian communities and can increase extinction risk; however, long-term effects of warming on mammals are less understood. Dietary reconstructions inferred from stable isotopes of fossil herbivorous mammalian tooth enamel document environmental and climatic changes in ancient ecosystems, including C3/C4 transitions and relative seasonality. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we use stable carbon and oxygen isotopes preserved in fossil teeth to document the magnitude of mammalian dietary shifts and ancient floral change during geologically documented glacial and interglacial periods during the Pliocene (∼1.9 million years ago) and Pleistocene (∼1.3 million years ago) in Florida. Stable isotope data demonstrate increased aridity, increased C4 grass consumption, inter-faunal dietary partitioning, increased isotopic niche breadth of mixed feeders, niche partitioning of phylogenetically similar taxa, and differences in relative seasonality with warming. Conclusion/Significance Our data show that global warming resulted in dramatic vegetation and dietary changes even at lower latitudes (∼28°N). Our results also question the use of models that predict the long term decline and extinction of species based on the assumption that niches are conserved over time. These findings have immediate relevance to clarifying possible biotic responses to current global warming in modern ecosystems. PMID:19492043

  7. Mechanisms driving change: altered species interactions and ecosystem function through global warming.

    PubMed

    Traill, Lochran W; Lim, Matthew L M; Sodhi, Navjot S; Bradshaw, Corey J A

    2010-09-01

    1. We review the mechanisms behind ecosystem functions, the processes that facilitate energy transfer along food webs, and the major processes that allow the cycling of carbon, oxygen and nitrogen, and use case studies to show how these have already been, and will continue to be, altered by global warming. 2. Increased temperatures will affect the interactions between heterotrophs and autotrophs (e.g. pollination and seed dispersal), and between heterotrophs (e.g. predators-prey, parasites/pathogens-hosts), with generally negative ramifications for important ecosystem services (functions that provide direct benefit to human society such as pollination) and potential for heightened species co-extinction rates. 3. Mitigation of likely impacts of warming will require, in particular, the maintenance of species diversity as insurance for the provision of basic ecosystem services. Key to this will be long-term monitoring and focused research that seek to maintain ecosystem resilience in the face of global warming. 4. We provide guidelines for pursuing research that quantifies the nexus between ecosystem function and global warming. These include documentation of key functional species groups within systems, and understanding the principal outcomes arising from direct and indirect effects of a rapidly warming environment. Localized and targeted research and monitoring, complemented with laboratory work, will determine outcomes for resilience and guide adaptive conservation responses and long-term planning.

  8. Change of tropical cyclone heat potential in response to global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Ran; Chen, Changlin; Wang, Guihua

    2016-04-01

    Tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) in the ocean can affect tropical cyclone intensity and intensification. In this paper, TCHP change under global warming is presented based on 35 models from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5). As the upper ocean warms up, the TCHP of the global ocean is projected to increase by 140.6% in the 21st century under the RCP4.5 (+4.5 W m-2 Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario. The increase is particularly significant in the western Pacific, northwestern Indian and western tropical Atlantic oceans. The increase of TCHP results from the ocean temperature warming above the depth of the 26°C isotherm (D26), the deepening of D26, and the horizontal area expansion of SST above 26°C. Their contributions are 69.4%, 22.5% and 8.1%, respectively. Further, a suite of numerical experiments with an Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) is conducted to investigate the relative importance of wind stress and buoyancy forcing to the TCHP change under global warming. Results show that sea surface warming is the dominant forcing for the TCHP change, while wind stress and sea surface salinity change are secondary.

  9. Are treelines advancing? A global meta-analysis of treeline response to climate warming.

    PubMed

    Harsch, Melanie A; Hulme, Philip E; McGlone, Matt S; Duncan, Richard P

    2009-10-01

    Treelines are temperature sensitive transition zones that are expected to respond to climate warming by advancing beyond their current position. Response to climate warming over the last century, however, has been mixed, with some treelines showing evidence of recruitment at higher altitudes and/or latitudes (advance) whereas others reveal no marked change in the upper limit of tree establishment. To explore this variation, we analysed a global dataset of 166 sites for which treeline dynamics had been recorded since 1900 AD. Advance was recorded at 52% of sites with only 1% reporting treeline recession. Treelines that experienced strong winter warming were more likely to have advanced, and treelines with a diffuse form were more likely to have advanced than those with an abrupt or krummholz form. Diffuse treelines may be more responsive to warming because they are more strongly growth limited, whereas other treeline forms may be subject to additional constraints.

  10. Global warming releases microplastic legacy frozen in Arctic Sea ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obbard, Rachel W.; Sadri, Saeed; Wong, Ying Qi; Khitun, Alexandra A.; Baker, Ian; Thompson, Richard C.

    2014-06-01

    When sea ice forms it scavenges and concentrates particulates from the water column, which then become trapped until the ice melts. In recent years, melting has led to record lows in Arctic Sea ice extent, the most recent in September 2012. Global climate models, such as that of Gregory et al. (2002), suggest that the decline in Arctic Sea ice volume (3.4% per decade) will actually exceed the decline in sea ice extent, something that Laxon et al. (2013) have shown supported by satellite data. The extent to which melting ice could release anthropogenic particulates back to the open ocean has not yet been examined. Here we show that Arctic Sea ice from remote locations contains concentrations of microplastics at least two orders of magnitude greater than those that have been previously reported in highly contaminated surface waters, such as those of the Pacific Gyre. Our findings indicate that microplastics have accumulated far from population centers and that polar sea ice represents a major historic global sink of man-made particulates. The potential for substantial quantities of legacy microplastic contamination to be released to the ocean as the ice melts therefore needs to be evaluated, as do the physical and toxicological effects of plastics on marine life.

  11. Global warming increased by the response of land plants to CO2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, L.; Bala, G.; Caldeira, K. G.; Nemani, R. R.; Ban-Weiss, G. A.

    2009-12-01

    An increase in atmospheric CO2 influences climate both directly through its radiative effect and indirectly through its physiological effect on land plants. The primary climate effect of CO2 is a result of its absorption of longwave radiation. But increased CO2 reduces plant transpiration, which also causes warming -- a physiological effect on climate. We examine both radiative and physiological effects of increased CO2 in the climate response of the NCAR coupled Community Land and Community Atmosphere Model. In the model, in response to a doubling of CO2, the radiative effect causes a mean land warming of 2.86 ± 0.02 K (±1 standard error) and the physiological effect causes a mean land warming of 0.42 ± 0.02 K. On average, the physiological effect is responsible for 14% of total warming, and is responsible for more than 20% of total warming over 21% of the land surface. Global runoff is the excess of precipitation over evaporation over land. In response to a doubling of CO2, the CO2-radiative effect increases runoff by 5.2 ± 0.6%, primarily by increasing precipitation over the continents. The physiological effect increases global runoff by 8.4 ± 0.6%, primarily a result of diminished evaporation from the continents. Water vapor changes from radiative forcing typically follow a Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. However, water vapor changes associated with warming in response to the CO2-physiological effect are much less than what would be predicted from the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Closing plant stomata decrease the water vapor flux to the atmosphere, resulting in lower relative humidity and increased runoff. Our study points to an emerging robust modeling result that the physiological effect of CO2 on land plants will increase global warming beyond what is caused by the radiative effect of CO2 on longwave radiation.

  12. Global warming and marine carbon cycle feedbacks on future atmospheric CO2

    PubMed

    Joos; Plattner; Stocker; Marchal; Schmittner

    1999-04-16

    A low-order physical-biogeochemical climate model was used to project atmospheric carbon dioxide and global warming for scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The North Atlantic thermohaline circulation weakens in all global warming simulations and collapses at high levels of carbon dioxide. Projected changes in the marine carbon cycle have a modest impact on atmospheric carbon dioxide. Compared with the control, atmospheric carbon dioxide increased by 4 percent at year 2100 and 20 percent at year 2500. The reduction in ocean carbon uptake can be mainly explained by sea surface warming. The projected changes of the marine biological cycle compensate the reduction in downward mixing of anthropogenic carbon, except when the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation collapses.

  13. Climate. Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration.

    PubMed

    Chen, Xianyao; Tung, Ka-Kit

    2014-08-22

    A vacillating global heat sink at intermediate ocean depths is associated with different climate regimes of surface warming under anthropogenic forcing: The latter part of the 20th century saw rapid global warming as more heat stayed near the surface. In the 21st century, surface warming slowed as more heat moved into deeper oceans. In situ and reanalyzed data are used to trace the pathways of ocean heat uptake. In addition to the shallow La Niña-like patterns in the Pacific that were the previous focus, we found that the slowdown is mainly caused by heat transported to deeper layers in the Atlantic and the Southern oceans, initiated by a recurrent salinity anomaly in the subpolar North Atlantic. Cooling periods associated with the latter deeper heat-sequestration mechanism historically lasted 20 to 35 years.

  14. Global warming and marine carbon cycle feedbacks on future atmospheric CO2

    PubMed

    Joos; Plattner; Stocker; Marchal; Schmittner

    1999-04-16

    A low-order physical-biogeochemical climate model was used to project atmospheric carbon dioxide and global warming for scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The North Atlantic thermohaline circulation weakens in all global warming simulations and collapses at high levels of carbon dioxide. Projected changes in the marine carbon cycle have a modest impact on atmospheric carbon dioxide. Compared with the control, atmospheric carbon dioxide increased by 4 percent at year 2100 and 20 percent at year 2500. The reduction in ocean carbon uptake can be mainly explained by sea surface warming. The projected changes of the marine biological cycle compensate the reduction in downward mixing of anthropogenic carbon, except when the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation collapses. PMID:10205049

  15. Coastal-zone biogeochemical dynamics under global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Mackenzie, F.T.; Ver, L.M.; Lerman, A.

    2000-03-01

    The coastal zone, consisting of the continental shelves to a depth of 200 meters, including bays, lagoons, estuaries, and near-shore banks, is an environment that is strongly affected by its biogeochemical and physical interactions with reservoirs in the adjacent domains of land, atmosphere, open ocean, and marine sediments. Because the coastal zone is smaller in volume and area coverage relative to the open ocean, it traditionally has been studied as an integral part of the global oceans. In this paper, the authors show by numerical modeling that it is important to consider the coastal zone as an entity separate from the open ocean in any assessment of future Earth-system response under human perturbation. Model analyses for the early part of the 21st century suggest that the coastal zone plays a significant modifying role in the biogeochemical dynamics of the carbon cycle and the nutrient cycles coupled to it. This role is manifested in changes in primary production, storage, and/or export of organic matter, its remineralization, and calcium carbonate precipitation--all of which determine the state of the coastal zone with respect to exchange of CO{sub 2} with the atmosphere. Under a scenario of future reduced or complete cessation of the thermohaline circulation (THC) of the global oceans, coastal waters become an important sink for atmospheric CO{sub 2}, as opposed to the conditions in the past and present, when coastal waters are believed to be a source of CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere. Profound changes in coastal-zone primary productivity underscore the important role of phosphorus as a limiting nutrient. In addition, calculations indicate that the saturation state of coastal waters with respect to carbonate minerals will decline by {approximately}15% by the year 2030. Any future slowdown in the THC of the oceans will increase slightly the rate of decline in saturation state.

  16. Joint CO2 and CH4 accountability for global warming

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Kirk R.; Desai, Manish A.; Rogers, Jamesine V.; Houghton, Richard A.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a transparent climate debt index incorporating both methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. We develop national historic emissions databases for both greenhouse gases to 2005, justifying 1950 as the starting point for global perspectives. We include CO2 emissions from fossil sources [CO2(f)], as well as, in a separate analysis, land use change and forestry. We calculate the CO2(f) and CH4 remaining in the atmosphere in 2005 from 205 countries using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report impulse response functions. We use these calculations to estimate the fraction of remaining global emissions due to each country, which is applied to total radiative forcing in 2005 to determine the combined climate debt from both greenhouse gases in units of milliwatts per square meter per country or microwatts per square meter per person, a metric we term international natural debt (IND). Australia becomes the most indebted large country per capita because of high CH4 emissions, overtaking the United States, which is highest for CO2(f). The differences between the INDs of developing and developed countries decline but remain large. We use IND to assess the relative reduction in IND from choosing between CO2(f) and CH4`control measures and to contrast the imposed versus experienced health impacts from climate change. Based on 2005 emissions, the same hypothetical impact on world 2050 IND could be achieved by decreasing CH4 emissions by 46% as stopping CO2 emissions entirely, but with substantial differences among countries, implying differential optimal strategies. Adding CH4 shifts the basic narrative about differential international accountability for climate change. PMID:23847202

  17. Energy and global warming impacts of HFC refrigerants and emerging technologies: TEWI-III

    SciTech Connect

    Sand, J.R.; Fischer, S.K.; Baxter, V.D.

    1997-06-01

    The use of hydrofluorocarbons (BFCs) which were developed as alternative refrigerants and insulating foam blowing agents to replace chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) is now being affected by scientific investigations of greenhouse warming and questions about the effects of refrigerants and blowing agents on global warming. A Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI) assessment analyzes the environmental affects of these halogenated working fluids in energy consuming applications by combining a direct effect resulting from the inadvertent release of HFCs to the atmosphere with an indirect effect resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels needed to provide the energy to operate equipment using these compounds as working fluids. TEWI is a more balanced measure of environmental impact because it is not based solely on the global warming potential (GWP) of the working fluid. It also shows the environmental benefit of efficient technologies that result in less CO{sub 2} generation and eventual emission to the earth`s atmosphere. The goal of TEWI is to assess total global warming impact of all the gases released to the atmosphere, including CO{sub 2} emissions from energy conversion. Alternative chemicals and technologies have been proposed as substitutes for HFCs in the vapor-compression cycle for refrigeration and air conditioning and for polymer foams in appliance and building insulations which claim substantial environmental benefits. Among these alternatives are: (1) Hydrocarbon (HC) refrigerants and blowing agents which have zero ozone depleting potential and a negligible global warming potential, (2) CO{sub 2} as a refrigerant and blowing agent, (3) Ammonia (NH{sub 3}) vapor compression systems, (4) Absorption chiller and heat pumping cycles using ammonia/water or lithium bromide/water, and (5) Evacuated panel insulations. This paper summarizes major results and conclusions of the detailed final report on the TEWI-111 study.

  18. Net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity affected by cropping sequence and nitrogen fertilization

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Little information is available about management practice effects on the net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) under dryland cropping systems. We evaluated the effects of cropping sequences (conventional-tillage malt barley [Hordeum vulgaris L.]–fallow [CTB-F], no-ti...

  19. Global warming and the regional persistence of a temperate-zone insect (Tenodera sinensis)

    SciTech Connect

    Rooney, T.P.; Smith, A.T.; Hurd, L.E.

    1996-07-01

    Models based on the paleoecological record predict that animals in temperate regions will respond to global warming by migrating poleward to remain within their temperature tolerance ranges. The effect of global warming on invertebrates is of great concern because of their critical role in ecosystem structure and function. Migration poses a problem for many species because of their limited dispersal abilities. The life cycle of a typical temperature zone univoltine insect. Tenodera sinensis (Mantodea: Mantidae) is constrained by degree-days per season: too few prevent maturation before the killing frost in the autumn; too many allow egg hatch before a killing frost. We used field and laboratory observation on the life history and ecology of this species to predict the effect of global warming on the regional distribution of this insect by the end of the next century. Based on the simplified, best-case, biological assumptions of our model, the geographical range of T. sinensis in eastern North America would be compressed toward the northern part of its present contiguous regional distribution. This and other univoltine temperate species with long maturation periods and low vagility could face regional extinction if global warming predictions are accurate. 61 refs., 3 figs.

  20. The Teach-in on Global Warming Solutions and Vygotsky: Fostering Ecological Action and Environmental Citizenship

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lysack, Mishka

    2009-01-01

    The Teach-in on Global Warming Solutions is part of a larger socio-environmental movement concerned with combating climate change. Highlighting the history and elements of the teach-in as a model of learning, the article examines the teach-in movement, using a local event at the University of Calgary as an illustration. Conceptual resources from…

  1. A Collection of Studies Conducted in Education about "Global Warming" Problem

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bozdogan, Aykut Emre

    2011-01-01

    The studies global warming problem conducted in education discipline in the world and in Turkey were analysed for this study. The literature was reviewed extensively especially through the articles in the indexed journals of Ebsco Host, Science Direct, Taylor and Francis and Web of Science databases and this study was conducted according to the…

  2. Medical Providers as Global Warming and Climate Change Health Educators: A Health Literacy Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Villagran, Melinda; Weathers, Melinda; Keefe, Brian; Sparks, Lisa

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is a threat to wildlife and the environment, but it also one of the most pervasive threats to human health. The goal of this study was to examine the relationships among dimensions of health literacy, patient education about global warming and climate change (GWCC), and health behaviors. Results reveal that patients who have higher…

  3. Debating Global Warming in Media Discussion Forums: Strategies Enacted by "Persistent Deniers" and Implications for Schooling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bowen, G. Michael; Rodger, Valerie

    2008-01-01

    Newspapers and other media are often used as a source of information on science issues, both by the public and teachers in classrooms. Over six months, we collected discussions of global warming issues from the online forums of a national newspaper. Our analysis of these contributions suggests there is a considerable effort in these forums,…

  4. Fear Appeals and College Students' Attitudes and Behavioral Intentions toward Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Li, Shu-Chu Sarrina

    2014-01-01

    This study used Witte's extended parallel process model to examine the relationships between the use of fear appeals and college students' attitudes and behavioral intentions toward global warming. A pretest-posttest quasi-experimental design was adopted. Three hundred forty-one college students from six communication courses at two…

  5. Omani Students' Views about Global Warming: Beliefs about Actions and Willingness to Act

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ambusaidi, Abdullah; Boyes, Edward; Stanisstreet, Martin; Taylor, Neil

    2012-01-01

    A 44-item questionnaire was designed to determine students' views about how useful various "specific" actions might be in helping to reduce global warming, their willingness to undertake these various actions and the extent to which these two might be related. The instrument was administered to students in Grades 6 to 12 (N = 1532) from 12 schools…

  6. Beliefs and Willingness to Act about Global Warming: Where to Focus Science Pedagogy?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skamp, Keith; Boyes, Eddie; Stanisstreet, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Science educators have a key role in empowering students to take action to reduce global warming. This involves assisting students to understand its causes as well as taking pedagogical decisions that have optimal probabilities of leading to students being motivated to take actions based on empirically based science beliefs. To this end New South…

  7. Students' Communication, Argumentation and Knowledge in a Citizens' Conference on Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Albe, Virginie; Gombert, Marie-Jose

    2012-01-01

    An empirical study on 12th-grade students' engagement on a global warming debate as a citizens' conference is reported. Within the design-based research methodology, an interdisciplinary teaching sequence integrating an initiation to non-violent communication was developed. Students' debates were analyzed according to three dimensions:…

  8. Climate of Concern--A Search for Effective Strategies for Teaching Children about Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taber, Fiona; Taylor, Neil

    2009-01-01

    Recent research suggests that the issue of global warming is one of great concern for Australian children. This point to the need for effective teaching about this issue. Children should be properly informed about actions that help reduce carbon emissions as this may give them a sense of empowerment and go some way to alleviating concerns. This…

  9. Social Activism in Elementary Science Education: A Science, Technology, and Society Approach to Teach Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lester, Benjamin T.; Ma, Li; Lee, Okhee; Lambert, Julie

    2006-01-01

    As part of a large-scale instructional intervention research, this study examined elementary students' science knowledge and awareness of social activism with regard to an increased greenhouse effect and global warming. The study involved fifth-grade students from five elementary schools of varying demographic makeup in a large urban school…

  10. Mass Media and Global Warming: A Public Arenas Model of the Greenhouse Effect's Scientific Roots.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neuzil, Mark

    1995-01-01

    Uses the Public Arenas model to examine the historical roots of the greenhouse effect issue as communicated in scientific literature from the early 1800s to modern times. Utilizes a constructivist approach to discuss several possible explanations for the rise and fall of global warming as a social problem in the scientific arena. (PA)

  11. Do mitigation strategies reduce global warming potential in the northern U.S. Corn Belt?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Agriculture is both an anthropogenic source of CO2, CH4, and N2O, and a sink for CO2 and CH4. Management can impact agriculture's net global warming potential (GWP) by changing source and/or sink. This study compared GWP among three crop management systems: business as usual (BAU), optimum greenhous...

  12. ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR REDUCING NET GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL IN IRRIGATED CROPPING SYSTEMS IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A cropping systems field study initiated in 1999 was used in this analysis to evaluate the economic feasibility of achieving reductions in net global warming potential through changes in cropping system management. Crop yield and management information collected from 2000-2005 were used to estimate ...

  13. Australian Secondary Students' Views about Global Warming: Beliefs about Actions, and Willingness to Act

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boyes, Edward; Skamp, Keith; Stanisstreet, Martin

    2009-01-01

    A 44-item questionnaire was constructed to determine secondary students' views about how useful various specific actions might be at reducing global warming, their willingness to undertake the various actions, and the extent to which these two might be linked. Responses (n = 500) were obtained from students in years 7 to 10 in three schools in…

  14. The impact of global warming on river runoff

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.

    1992-01-01

    A global atmospheric model is used to calculate the annual river runoff for 33 of the world's major rivers for the present climate and for a doubled CO2 climate. The model has a horizontal resolution of 4 x 5 deg, but the runoff from each model grid box is quartered and added to the appropriate river drainage basin on a 2 x 2.5 deg resolution. The computed runoff depends on the model's precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture storage. For the doubled CO2 climate, the runoff increased for 25 of the 33 rivers, and in most cases the increases coincide with increased rainfall within the drainage basins. There were runoff increases in all rivers in high northern latitudes, with a maximum increase of 47 percent. At low latitudes there were both increases and decreases ranging from a 96 increase to a 43 percent decrease. The effect of the simplified model assumptions of land-atmosphere interactions on the results is discussed.

  15. Modification of cirrus clouds to reduce global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitchell, David L.; Finnegan, William

    2009-10-01

    Greenhouse gases and cirrus clouds regulate outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and cirrus cloud coverage is predicted to be sensitive to the ice fall speed which depends on ice crystal size. The higher the cirrus, the greater their impact is on OLR. Thus by changing ice crystal size in the coldest cirrus, OLR and climate might be modified. Fortunately the coldest cirrus have the highest ice supersaturation due to the dominance of homogeneous freezing nucleation. Seeding such cirrus with very efficient heterogeneous ice nuclei should produce larger ice crystals due to vapor competition effects, thus increasing OLR and surface cooling. Preliminary estimates of this global net cloud forcing are more negative than -2.8 W m-2 and could neutralize the radiative forcing due to a CO2 doubling (3.7 W m-2). A potential delivery mechanism for the seeding material is already in place: the airline industry. Since seeding aerosol residence times in the troposphere are relatively short, the climate might return to its normal state within months after stopping the geoengineering experiment. The main known drawback to this approach is that it would not stop ocean acidification. It does not have many of the drawbacks that stratospheric injection of sulfur species has.

  16. The response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karnauskas, K. B.; Seager, R.; Kaplan, A.; Kushnir, Y.; Cane, M.

    2008-12-01

    Decadal variations of very small amplitude (~0.3C in sea surface temperature) in the tropical Pacific Ocean have been shown to have powerful impacts on global climate. Future projections from different climate models do not agree on how this critical feature will change under the influence of anthropogenic forcing. A number of attempts have been made to resolve this issue by examining trends from the 1880s to the present, a period of rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. The most recent concluded that the three major data sets disagreed on the trend in the equatorial gradient of sea surface temperature (SST). Using a corrected version of one of these data sets, and extending the analysis to the seasonal cycle, we show here that all agree that the equatorial SST gradient strengthened from 1880-2005, especially during the boreal fall when the gradient is normally strongest. This result appears to favor a theory for future changes based on ocean dynamics over one based on atmospheric energy constraints. Both theories incorporate the expectation that, based on ENSO theory, the zonal sea level pressure (SLP) gradient in the tropical Pacific is coupled to SST and should strengthen along with the SST gradient. We find, however, that the SLP gradient appears to have weakened over the same time period, though consistent with the SST seasonal trends, it weakens least in boreal fall. Most of the IPCC AR4 models capture prominent features of these trends, but they fail to reproduce observed trends in boreal spring.

  17. Can the desert annual Salvia columbariae adapt to global warming?

    SciTech Connect

    Soulanille, E.L.; Bierzychudek, P. |

    1995-06-01

    Atmospheric concentrations of {open_quotes}greenhouse{close_quotes} gases are increasing, and most atmospheric scientists agree that an increase in global mean air temperatures will follow. The predictions about possible biological consequences range from {open_quotes}significant{close_quotes} to {open_quotes}catastrophic.{close_quotes} To explore the possible effects of elevated temperatures on a winter germinating desert annual, we grew seeds from two populations of Salvia columbariae in controlled environments mimicking normal temperatures for those populations and in temperatures 4 C higher. Measures of individual fitness were successful germination and the number of seeds produced. For both populations, fitness was dramatically lower in the elevated temperatures: both percent germination and seed number were significantly reduced. Sixty-five percent of the family groups (same mother) failed to flower under the elevated temperatures, whereas, all of the families grown in the normal temperatures flowered and produced seeds. There were also differences between families grown in the increased temperature treatments, implying genetic differences in high temperature tolerance. Our results suggest that while some families will be able to survive and adapt to elevated air temperatures, most will not. This could lead to a serious eroding of the genetic variability of these populations and possibly hamper their ability to respond to other kinds of environmental change.

  18. Vegetation-atmosphere interactions and their role in global warming during the latest Cretaceous

    PubMed Central

    Upchurch, G. R.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Scotese, C.

    1998-01-01

    Forest vegetation has the ability to warm Recent climate by its effects on albedo and atmospheric water vapour, but the role of vegetation in warming climates of the geologic past is poorly understood. This study evaluates the role of forest vegetation in maintaining warm climates of the Late Cretaceous by (1) reconstructing global palaeovegetation for the latest Cretaceous (Maastrichtian); (2) modelling latest Cretaceous climate under unvegetated conditions and different distributions of palaeovegetation; and (3) comparing model output with a global database of palaeoclimatic indicators. Simulation of Maastrichtian climate with the land surface coded as bare soil produces high-latitude temperatures that are too cold to explain the documented palaeogeographic distribution of forest and woodland vegetation. In contrast, simulations that include forest vegetation at high latitudes show significantly warmer temperatures that are sufficient to explain the widespread geographic distribution of high-latitude deciduous forests. These warmer temperatures result from decreased albedo and feedbacks between the land surface and adjacent oceans. Prescribing a realistic distribution of palaeovegetation in model simulations produces the best agreement between simulated climate and the geologic record of palaeoclimatic indicators. Positive feedbacks between high-latitude forests, the atmosphere, and ocean contributed significantly to high-latitude warming during the latest Cretaceous, and imply that high-latitude forest vegetation was an important source of polar warmth during other warm periods of geologic history.

  19. Can Advances in Science and Technology Prevent Global Warming? A Critical Review of Limitations and Challenges

    SciTech Connect

    Huesemann, Michael H.

    2006-07-03

    large amounts of carbon-free power. However, biomass and hydroelectric energy can only be marginally expanded and large-scale solar energy installations (i.e., wind, photovoltaics, and direct thermal) are likely to have significant negative environmental impacts. Expansion of nuclear energy is highly unlikely due to concerns over reactor safety, radioactive waste management, weapons proliferation, and cost. In view of the serious limitations and liabilities of many proposed CO2 mitigation approaches it appears that there remain only few no-regrets options such as drastic energy efficiency improvements, extensive terrestrial carbon sequestration, and cautious expansion of renewable energy generation. These promising CO2 mitigation technologies have the potential to bring about the required 20-fold reduction in per capita carbon emission only if population and economic growth are halted without delay. Thus, addressing the problem of global warming requires not only technological research and development but also a reexamination of core values that mistakenly equate material consumption and economic growth to happiness and well-being.

  20. Global Warming in Schools: An Inquiry about the Competing Conceptions of High School Social Studies and Science Curricula and Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meehan, Casey R.

    2012-01-01

    Despite the scientific consensus supporting the theory of anthropogenic (human-induced) global warming, whether global warming is a serious problem, whether human activity is the primary cause of it, and whether scientific consensus exists at all are controversial questions among the U.S. lay-public. The cultural theory of risk perception (Schwarz…

  1. Student Teachers' Conceptions about Global Warming and Changes in Their Conceptions during Pre-Service Education: A Cross Sectional Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cimer, Sabiha Odabasi; Cimer, Atilla; Ursavas, Nazihan

    2011-01-01

    Global warming is one of the important environmental problems whose dangerous effects are increasing gradually. The study reported herein aimed to reveal student teachers' conceptions about global warming and the effect of biology teacher education program on their awareness of this environmental issue. An open-ended questionnaire was used to…

  2. The Effects of Instruction with Visual Materials on the Development of Preservice Elementary Teachers' Knowledge and Attitude towards Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bozdogan, Aykut Emre

    2011-01-01

    This study aimed to identify the erroneous knowledge and misconceptions of preservice elementary teachers about global warming and examine the effects of instruction with visual materials on rectifying these misconceptions and fostering a positive attitude towards the issue of global warming. Having a quasi-experimental design, the study made use…

  3. Exploring the tropical Response to Global Warming via an Overriding Technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, W.; Lu, J.; Xie, S. P.

    2015-12-01

    A suite of partial coupling experiments have been devised under a coupled GCM framework to isolate the effects of the feedbacks from the change of the wind-driven ocean circulation and air-sea heat flux in the global climate response to the forcing of increasing CO2. Specifically, the SST response has been examined in the tropical Indo-Pacific. An El Nino-like SST warming emerges in the tropical Pacific, together with an overall shoaling of the equatorial thermocline. The wind stress change plays the leading role in weakening the surface westward currents as well as for the oceanic changes in the equatorial thermocline while the effect of the wind speed change is mainly confined to the surface. In the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), an Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) like warming pattern is generated, and the development of the dipole pattern shows a pronounced seasonal evolution. Results from overriding experiments show that the wind-evaporation-sea surface temperature (WES) feedback accounts for most of the enhanced warming in the western and central TIO during May-July with the reduced southerly monsoonal wind and partially contributes to the reduced warming in the eastern TIO during June-September. The Bjerknes feedback explains most of the reduced warming in the eastern TIO during August-October, accompanied by reduced precipitation in the eastern TIO, easterly wind anomalies and a thermocline shoaling along the equator. Both feedbacks facilitate the formation of the dipole warming pattern in the TIO.

  4. Assessing Impacts of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Tracks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Li-Guang; Wang, Bin

    2003-01-01

    A new approach is proposed to assess the possible impacts of the global climate change on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin. The idea is based on the premise that the future change of TC track characteristics is primarily determined by changes in large-scale environmental steering flows. It is demonstrated that the main characteristics of the current climatology of TC tracks can be derived from the climatological mean velocity field of TC motion by using a trajectory model. The climatological mean velocity of TC motion, which is composed of the large-scale steering and beta drift, is determined on each grid of the basin. The mean beta drift is estimated from the best track data, and the mean large-scale steering flow is computed from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the current climate state. The derived mean beta drift agrees well with the results of previous observational and numerical studies in terms of its direction and magnitude. The outputs of experiments A2 and B2 of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) R30 climate model suggest that the subtropical high will be persistently weak over the western part of the WNP or shift eastward during July-September in response to the future climate change. By assuming that the mean beta drift in the future climate state is unchanged, the change in the general circulation by 2059 will decrease the TC activities in the WNP, but favor a northward shift of typical TC tracks. As a result, the storm activities in the South China Sea will decrease by about 12%, while the Japan region will experience an increase of TCs by 12-15%. During the period of 2000-2029, the tropical storms that affect the China region will increase by 5-6%, but return to the current level during 2030-2059. It is also suggested that, during the period of 2030-2059 tropical storms will more frequently affect Japan and the middle latitude region of China given that the formation locations remain the same as in the

  5. Millennial-scale projection of oceanic oxygen change due to global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamamoto, Akitomo; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Shigemitsu, Masahito; Oka, Akira; Takahashi, Kunio; Ohgaito, Rumi; Yamanaka, Yasuhiro

    2016-04-01

    Global warming is expected to globally decrease ocean oxygen concentrations by sea surface warming and ocean circulation change. Oxygen reduction is expected to persist for a thousand years or more, even after atmospheric carbon dioxide stops rising. However, long-term changes in ocean oxygen and circulation are still unclear. Here we simulate multimillennium changes in ocean circulation and oxygen under doubling and quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, using GCM (MIROC) and an offline biogeochemical model. In the first 500 years, global oxygen concentration decreases, consistent with previous studies. Thereafter, however, the oxygen concentration in the deep ocean globally recovers and overshoots at the end of the simulations, despite surface oxygen decrease and weaker AMOC. This is because, after the initial cessation, the recovery and overshooting of deep ocean convection in the Weddell Sea enhance ventilation and supply oxygen-rich surface waters to deep ocean. Another contributor to deep ocean oxygenation is seawater warming, which reduces the export production and shifts the organic matter remineralization to the upper water column. Our results indicate that the change in ocean circulation in the Southern Ocean potentially drives millennial-scale oxygenation in deep ocean, which is opposite to the centennial-scale global oxygen reduction and general expectation.

  6. A Robust Response of Precipitation to Global Warming from CMIP5 Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K. -M.; Wu, H. -T.; Kim, K. -M.

    2012-01-01

    How precipitation responds to global warming is a major concern to society and a challenge to climate change research. Based on analyses of rainfall probability distribution functions of 14 state-of-the-art climate models, we find a robust, canonical global rainfall response to a triple CO2 warming scenario, featuring 100 250% more heavy rain, 5-10% less moderate rain, and 10-15% more very light or no-rain events. Regionally, a majority of the models project a consistent response with more heavy rain events over climatologically wet regions of the deep tropics, and more dry events over subtropical and tropical land areas. Results suggest that increased CO2 emissions induce basic structural changes in global rain systems, increasing risks of severe floods and droughts in preferred geographic locations worldwide.

  7. Could a future "Grand Solar Minimum" like the Maunder Minimum stop global warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meehl, Gerald A.; Arblaster, Julie M.; Marsh, Daniel R.

    2013-05-01

    A future Maunder Minimum type grand solar minimum, with total solar irradiance reduced by 0.25% over a 50 year period from 2020 to 2070, is imposed in a future climate change scenario experiment (RCP4.5) using, for the first time, a global coupled climate model that includes ozone chemistry and resolved stratospheric dynamics (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model). This model has been shown to simulate two amplifying mechanisms that produce regional signals of decadal climate variability comparable to observations, and thus is considered a credible tool to simulate the Sun's effects on Earth's climate. After the initial decrease of solar radiation in 2020, globally averaged surface air temperature cools relative to the reference simulation by up to several tenths of a degree Centigrade. By the end of the grand solar minimum in 2070, the warming nearly catches up to the reference simulation. Thus, a future grand solar minimum could slow down but not stop global warming.

  8. Global warming threatens agricultural productivity in Africa and South Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sultan, Benjamin

    2012-12-01

    The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; Christensen et al 2007) has, with greater confidence than previous reports, warned the international community that the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions will result in global climate change. One of the most direct and threatening impacts it may have on human societies is the potential consequences on global crop production. Indeed agriculture is considered as the most weather-dependent of all human activities (Hansen 2002) since climate is a primary determinant for agricultural productivity. The potential impact of climate change on crop productivity is an additional strain on the global food system which is already facing the difficult challenge of increasing food production to feed a projected 9 billion people by 2050 with changing consumption patterns and growing scarcity of water and land (Beddington 2010). In some regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa or South Asia that are already food insecure and where most of the population increase and economic development will take place, climate change could be the additional stress that pushes systems over the edge. A striking example, if needed, is the work from Collomb (1999) which estimates that by 2050 food needs will more than quintuple in Africa and more than double in Asia. Better knowledge of climate change impacts on crop productivity in those vulnerable regions is crucial to inform policies and to support adaptation strategies that may counteract the adverse effects. Although there is a growing literature on the impact of climate change on crop productivity in tropical regions, it is difficult to provide a consistent assessment of future yield changes because of large uncertainties in regional climate change projections, in the response of crops to environmental change (rainfall, temperature, CO2 concentration), in the coupling between climate models and crop productivity functions, and in the adaptation of

  9. The mid-Cretaceous super plume, carbon dioxide, and global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Caldeira, K. ); Rampino, M.R. NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies, New York, NY )

    1991-06-01

    Carbon-dioxide releases associated with a mid-Cretaceous super plume and the emplacement of the Ontong-Java Plateau have been suggested as a principal cause of the mid-Cretaceous global warming. The authors developed a carbonate-silicate cycle model to quantify the possible climatic effects of these CO{sub 2} releases, utilizing four different formulations for the rate of silicate-rock weathering as a function of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. They find that CO{sub 2} emissions resulting from super-plume tectonics could have produced atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels from 3.7 to 14.7 times the modern pre-industrial value of 285 ppm. Based on the temperature sensitivity to CO{sub 2} increases used in the weathering-rate formulations, this would cause a global warming of from 2.8 to 7.7C over today's global mean temperature. Altered continental positions and higher sea level may have been contributed about 4.8C to mid-Cretaceous warming. Thus, the combined effects of paleogeographic changes and super-plume related CO{sub 2} emissions could be in the range of 7.6 to 12.5C, within the 6 to 14C range previously estimated for mid-Cretaceous warming. CO{sub 2} releases from oceanic plateaus alone are unlikely to have been directly responsible for more than 20% of the mid-Cretaceous increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2}.

  10. Global negative vegetation feedback to climate warming responses of leaf litter decomposition rates in cold biomes.

    PubMed

    Cornelissen, Johannes H C; van Bodegom, Peter M; Aerts, Rien; Callaghan, Terry V; van Logtestijn, Richard S P; Alatalo, Juha; Chapin, F Stuart; Gerdol, Renato; Gudmundsson, Jon; Gwynn-Jones, Dylan; Hartley, Anne E; Hik, David S; Hofgaard, Annika; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg S; Karlsson, Staffan; Klein, Julia A; Laundre, Jim; Magnusson, Borgthor; Michelsen, Anders; Molau, Ulf; Onipchenko, Vladimir G; Quested, Helen M; Sandvik, Sylvi M; Schmidt, Inger K; Shaver, Gus R; Solheim, Bjørn; Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A; Stenström, Anna; Tolvanen, Anne; Totland, Ørjan; Wada, Naoya; Welker, Jeffrey M; Zhao, Xinquan

    2007-07-01

    Whether climate change will turn cold biomes from large long-term carbon sinks into sources is hotly debated because of the great potential for ecosystem-mediated feedbacks to global climate. Critical are the direction, magnitude and generality of climate responses of plant litter decomposition. Here, we present the first quantitative analysis of the major climate-change-related drivers of litter decomposition rates in cold northern biomes worldwide. Leaf litters collected from the predominant species in 33 global change manipulation experiments in circum-arctic-alpine ecosystems were incubated simultaneously in two contrasting arctic life zones. We demonstrate that longer-term, large-scale changes to leaf litter decomposition will be driven primarily by both direct warming effects and concomitant shifts in plant growth form composition, with a much smaller role for changes in litter quality within species. Specifically, the ongoing warming-induced expansion of shrubs with recalcitrant leaf litter across cold biomes would constitute a negative feedback to global warming. Depending on the strength of other (previously reported) positive feedbacks of shrub expansion on soil carbon turnover, this may partly counteract direct warming enhancement of litter decomposition.

  11. The mid-Cretaceous super plume, carbon dioxide, and global warming.

    PubMed

    Caldeira, K; Rampino, M R

    1991-06-01

    Carbon-dioxide releases associated with a mid-Cretaceous super plume and the emplacement of the Ontong-Java Plateau have been suggested as a principal cause of the mid-Cretaceous global warming. We developed a carbonate-silicate cycle model to quantify the possible climatic effects of these CO2 releases, utilizing four different formulations for the rate of silicate-rock weathering as a function of atmospheric CO2. We find that CO2 emissions resulting from super-plume tectonics could have produced atmospheric CO2 levels from 3.7 to 14.7 times the modern pre-industrial value of 285 ppm. Based on the temperature sensitivity to CO2 increases used in the weathering-rate formulations, this would cause a global warming of from 2.8 to 7.7 degrees C over today's global mean temperature. Altered continental positions and higher sea level may have been contributed about 4.8 degrees C to mid-Cretaceous warming. Thus, the combined effects of paleogeographic changes and super-plume related CO2 emissions could be in the range of 7.6 to 12.5 degrees C, within the 6 to 14 degrees C range previously estimated for mid-Cretaceous warming. CO2 releases from oceanic plateaus alone are unlikely to have been directly responsible for more than 20% of the mid-Cretaceous increase in atmospheric CO2.

  12. Consistent responses of East Asian summer mean rainfall to global warming in CMIP5 simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qu, Xia; Huang, Gang; Zhou, Wen

    2014-07-01

    East Asia summer rainfall is of great social-economic importance. Based on observations, reanalysis and simulations of 16 Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, the responses of East Asia summer precipitation, as well as some relevant features, to global warming are investigated. The CMIP5 historical simulation reasonably reproduces the climatology of summer rainfall, the associated circulation, the moisture and its transportation, and the mid-troposphere horizontal advection of temperature as well. Under global warming, the rainfall enhancement is robustly projected in the state-of-the-art models over North China, Northeast China, northern coast of Japan and the Kuroshio. As well, the total summer rainfall over East Asia is consistently increased in the models. For the consistent responses, the moisture budget analysis based on the simulations shows that two factors are responsible: one is increased moisture. As East Asia is a climatological ascent region in northern summer, increased moisture induced by global warming leads to more moisture transported upward and thus the rainfall rise. The other is enhanced evaporation, which may be caused by surface warming and provides more precipitable water to the atmosphere column. Furthermore, the results may provide some implications to the long-term variability of East Asia summer rainfall over the last several decades.

  13. Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frölicher, Thomas L.; Paynter, David J.

    2015-07-01

    The transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) is a highly policy-relevant quantity in climate science. The TCRE suggests that peak warming is linearly proportional to cumulative carbon emissions and nearly independent of the emissions scenario. Here, we use simulations of the Earth System Model (ESM) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to show that global mean surface temperature may increase by 0.5 °C after carbon emissions are stopped at 2 °C global warming, implying an increase in the coefficient relating global warming to cumulative carbon emissions on multi-centennial timescales. The simulations also suggest a 20% lower quota on cumulative carbon emissions allowed to achieve a policy-driven limit on global warming. ESM estimates from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5-ESMs) qualitatively agree on this result, whereas Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) simulations, used in the IPCC 5th assessment report to assess the robustness of TCRE on multi-centennial timescales, suggest a post-emissions decrease in temperature. The reason for this discrepancy lies in the smaller simulated realized warming fraction in CMIP5-ESMs, including GFDL ESM2M, than in EMICs when carbon emissions increase. The temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions can be characterized by three different phases and the linear TCRE framework is only valid during the first phase when carbon emissions increase. For longer timescales, when emissions tape off, two new metrics are introduced that better characterize the time-dependent temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions: the equilibrium climate response to cumulative carbon emissions and the multi-millennial climate response to cumulative carbon emissions.

  14. Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

    PubMed

    Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

    2015-01-01

    Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.

  15. Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

    PubMed

    Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

    2015-01-01

    Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low. PMID:26090931

  16. The global warming-induced South Asian High change and its uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qu, Xia; Huang, Gang

    2016-04-01

    Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, the present study investigates the South Asian High (SAH) change in response to global warming. Under global warming, at 100 hPa, the selected 16 coupled general circulation models all feature an elevation of geopotential height to the south of the SAH climatological position; an easterly response is found over the northern Indian Ocean in all the models, while a westerly response is found over subtropical Asia. The ridges of the SAH shift equatorward in 75% of models. Using the linear baroclinic model, it is found that the co-effects of latent heating and the mean advection of stratification change (MASC) are mainly responsible for those responses. The MASC mainly leads to the forementioned easterly and westerly responses; the latent heating contributes to the geopotential height response and the easterly response over the northern Indian Ocean. The most important inter-model diversity found in the 100 hPa circulation change under global warming, and accounts for more than half of the total inter-model variance. The inter-model spread of latent heating and the MASC are important factors in driving the 100 hPa circulation diversity. Furthermore, analysis shows that the projected uncertainty in humidity, vertical velocity and global mean temperature change are the three most important sources of inter-model diversity for the 100 hPa circulation change.

  17. Land-atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berg, Alexis; Findell, Kirsten; Lintner, Benjamin; Giannini, Alessandra; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van den Hurk, Bart; Lorenz, Ruth; Pitman, Andy; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Cheruy, Frédérique; Ducharne, Agnès; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, P. C. D.

    2016-09-01

    The response of the terrestrial water cycle to global warming is central to issues including water resources, agriculture and ecosystem health. Recent studies indicate that aridity, defined in terms of atmospheric supply (precipitation, P) and demand (potential evapotranspiration, Ep) of water at the land surface, will increase globally in a warmer world. Recently proposed mechanisms for this response emphasize the driving role of oceanic warming and associated atmospheric processes. Here we show that the aridity response is substantially amplified by land-atmosphere feedbacks associated with the land surface's response to climate and CO2 change. Using simulations from the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 experiment, we show that global aridity is enhanced by the feedbacks of projected soil moisture decrease on land surface temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. The physiological impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on vegetation exerts a qualitatively similar control on aridity. We reconcile these findings with previously proposed mechanisms by showing that the moist enthalpy change over land is unaffected by the land hydrological response. Thus, although oceanic warming constrains the combined moisture and temperature changes over land, land hydrology modulates the partitioning of this enthalpy increase towards increased aridity.

  18. Independent Confirmation of Global Land Warming without the Use of Station Temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Compo, Gilbert; Sardeshmukh, Prashant; Whitaker, Jeffrey; Brohan, Philip; Jones, Philip; McColl, Chesley

    2013-04-01

    Confidence in estimates of 20th century land warming is limited by known issues with near-surface air temperature observations from land stations. Station siting, site moves, instrument changes, changing observing practices, urban effects, land cover, land use variations, and statistical processing have all been hypothesized as affecting the trends presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and others. Confidence in the observed rise of global land temperatures since the 1950s is important in assessments of anthropogenic effects on climate, so any artifacts in the observed decadal and centennial variations associated with these issues could have important consequences for scientific understanding and climate policy. Here we test the station temperature observations using a completely different approach to investigate global 20th century land warming. Specifically, we ignore all land temperature observations and instead infer the temperatures from global observations of subdaily barometric pressure, monthly HadISST1.1 sea surface temperature and sea-ice concentration, and of CO2, solar and volcanic radiative forcing agents using a physically-based data assimilation system called the 20th Century Reanalysis. This independent dataset reproduces both annual variations and centennial trends found in the observational near-surface air temperature datasets, thus demonstrating the robustness of previous conclusions based on them regarding global warming.

  19. Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming

    PubMed Central

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Scherer, Martin; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2013-01-01

    Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the northern hemisphere 1,2, raising concern that global warming could have important impacts on natural and human systems in snow-dependent regions 1,3. Although regional hydrologic changes have been observed (e.g., 1,3–5), the time of emergence of extreme changes in snow accumulation and melt remains a key unknown for assessing climate change impacts 3,6,7. We find that the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble exhibits an imminent shift towards low snow years in the northern hemisphere, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe, and the Greater Himalaya showing the strongest emergence during the near-term decades and at 2°C global warming. The occurrence of extremely low snow years becomes widespread by the late-21st century, as do the occurrence of extremely high early-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing flood risk), and extremely low late-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing water stress). Our results suggest that many snow-dependent regions of the northern hemisphere are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years within the next three decades, and from extreme changes in snow-dominated water resources if global warming exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial baseline. PMID:24015153

  20. Longevity of animals under reactive oxygen species stress and disease susceptibility due to global warming.

    PubMed

    Paital, Biswaranjan; Panda, Sumana Kumari; Hati, Akshaya Kumar; Mohanty, Bobllina; Mohapatra, Manoj Kumar; Kanungo, Shyama; Chainy, Gagan Bihari Nityananda

    2016-02-26

    The world is projected to experience an approximate doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration in the next decades. Rise in atmospheric CO2 level as one of the most important reasons is expected to contribute to raise the mean global temperature 1.4 °C-5.8 °C by that time. A survey from 128 countries speculates that global warming is primarily due to increase in atmospheric CO2 level that is produced mainly by anthropogenic activities. Exposure of animals to high environmental temperatures is mostly accompanied by unwanted acceleration of certain biochemical pathways in their cells. One of such examples is augmentation in generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and subsequent increase in oxidation of lipids, proteins and nucleic acids by ROS. Increase in oxidation of biomolecules leads to a state called as oxidative stress (OS). Finally, the increase in OS condition induces abnormality in physiology of animals under elevated temperature. Exposure of animals to rise in habitat temperature is found to boost the metabolism of animals and a very strong and positive correlation exists between metabolism and levels of ROS and OS. Continuous induction of OS is negatively correlated with survivability and longevity and positively correlated with ageing in animals. Thus, it can be predicted that continuous exposure of animals to acute or gradual rise in habitat temperature due to global warming may induce OS, reduced survivability and longevity in animals in general and poikilotherms in particular. A positive correlation between metabolism and temperature in general and altered O2 consumption at elevated temperature in particular could also increase the risk of experiencing OS in homeotherms. Effects of global warming on longevity of animals through increased risk of protein misfolding and disease susceptibility due to OS as the cause or effects or both also cannot be ignored. Therefore, understanding the physiological impacts of global warming in relation to