Hydrocomplexity: Addressing water security and emergent environmental risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Praveen

2015-07-01

Water security and emergent environmental risks are among the most significant societal concerns. They are highly interlinked to other global risks such as those related to climate, human health, food, human migration, biodiversity loss, urban sustainability, etc. Emergent risks result from the confluence of unanticipated interactions from evolving interdependencies between complex systems, such as those embedded in the water cycle. They are associated with the novelty of dynamical possibilities that have significant potential consequences to human and ecological systems, and not with probabilities based on historical precedence. To ensure water security we need to be able to anticipate the likelihood of risk possibilities as they present the prospect of the most impact through cascade of vulnerabilities. They arise due to a confluence of nonstationary drivers that include growing population, climate change, demographic shifts, urban growth, and economic expansion, among others, which create novel interdependencies leading to a potential of cascading network effects. Hydrocomplexity aims to address water security and emergent risks through the development of science, methods, and practices with the potential to foster a "Blue Revolution" akin to the Green revolution for food security. It blends both hard infrastructure based solution with soft knowledge driven solutions to increase the range of planning and design, management, mitigation and adaptation strategies. It provides a conceptual and synthetic framework to enable us to integrate discovery science and engineering, observational and information science, computational and communication systems, and social and institutional approaches to address consequential water and environmental challenges.

Using agent-based modeling to study multiple risk factors and multiple health outcomes at multiple levels.

PubMed

Yang, Yong

2017-11-01

Most health studies focus on one health outcome and examine the influence of one or multiple risk factors. However, in reality, various pathways, interactions, and associations exist not only between risk factors and health outcomes but also among the risk factors and among health outcomes. The advance of system science methods, Big Data, and accumulated knowledge allows us to examine how multiple risk factors influence multiple health outcomes at multiple levels (termed a 3M study). Using the study of neighborhood environment and health as an example, I elaborate on the significance of 3M studies. 3M studies may lead to a significantly deeper understanding of the dynamic interactions among risk factors and outcomes and could help us design better interventions that may be of particular relevance for upstream interventions. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a promising method in the 3M study, although its potentials are far from being fully explored. Future challenges include the gap of epidemiologic knowledge and evidence, lack of empirical data sources, and the technical challenges of ABM. © 2017 New York Academy of Sciences.

Addressing software security risk mitigations in the life cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilliam, David; Powell, John; Haugh, Eric; Bishop, Matt

2003-01-01

The NASA Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) has funded the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) with a Center Initiative, 'Reducing Software Security Risk through an Integrated Approach' (RSSR), to address this need. The Initiative is a formal approach to addressing software security in the life cycle through the instantiation of a Software Security Assessment Instrument (SSAI) for the development and maintenance life cycles.

Anthropometric characteristics and risk of multiple myeloma.

PubMed

Blair, Cindy K; Cerhan, James R; Folsom, Aaron R; Ross, Julie A

2005-09-01

Few studies have examined obesity and risk for multiple myeloma, and the results are inconsistent. Laboratory evidence suggests mechanisms through which obesity could influence carcinogenesis of this hematopoietic malignancy. We examined the association between anthropometric characteristics and incident multiple myeloma in a prospective, population-based sample of 37,083 postmenopausal women. In 1986, the women completed a mailed questionnaire that included self-report of height and weight, and friend measurement of waist and hip circumferences. During 16 years of follow up, 95 cases of multiple myeloma were identified through linkage to the Iowa Cancer Registry. In an age-adjusted model, women in the highest category of several anthropometric measurements compared with the lowest category were at increased risk of developing multiple myeloma. For body mass index (kg/m), the rate ratio (95% confidence interval) was 1.5 (0.92-2.6); for weight, 1.9 (1.1-3.4); for waist circumference, 2.0 (1.1-3.5); and for hip circumference, 1.8 (1.0-3.0). Greater adiposity may increase the risk of multiple myeloma.

Childhood infections and risk of multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Bager, Peter; Nielsen, Nete Munk; Bihrmann, Kristine; Frisch, Morten; Hjalgrim, Henrik; Wohlfart, Jan; Koch-Henriksen, Nils; Melbye, Mads; Westergaard, Tine

2004-11-01

Multiple sclerosis has been hypothesized to be the result from an aberrant immune response possibly triggered by delayed exposure to a common childhood infection. Because the vast majority of previous studies testing this hypothesis have been based on a history of childhood infections recalled years to decades later in adulthood, we investigated whether age at six common childhood infections was associated with risk of multiple sclerosis, using information recalled in the childhood of a historical cohort of school children in Denmark. Cases included all individuals with multiple sclerosis in the country born between 1940 and 1975, who had attended school in the capital, Copenhagen. Controls were age- and sex-matched peers. School health records were obtained for all subjects. The records contained information on measles, pertussis, scarlet fever, birth order, sibship size, social class of the father, school years, and name of school and attended school classes for children born since 1940 (n(cases) = 455, n(controls) = 1801). For children born since 1950, the records also contained information on rubella, varicella and mumps (n(cases) = 182, n(controls) = 690). Neither age at infection with measles, rubella, varicella, mumps, pertussis and scarlet fever (upper age limit, 14 years) nor the cumulative number of these infections between the ages of 10 and 14 years was associated with the risk of multiple sclerosis. In addition, the risk of multiple sclerosis was not associated with birth order or social class. No clustering of multiple sclerosis in school classes was observed. Our findings suggest that measles, rubella, mumps, varicella, pertussis and scarlet fever, even if acquired late in childhood, are not associated with increased risk of multiple sclerosis later in life.

Health Risks of an Inactive Lifestyle - Multiple Languages

MedlinePlus

... Are Here: Home → Multiple Languages → All Health Topics → Health Risks of an Inactive Lifestyle URL of this page: https://medlineplus.gov/languages/ ... V W XYZ List of All Topics All Health Risks of an Inactive Lifestyle - Multiple Languages To use the sharing features on ...

Are health-based payments a feasible tool for addressing risk segmentation?

PubMed

Rogal, D L; Gauthier, A K

1998-01-01

As they attempt to increase health insurance coverage and improve the efficiency of the market, researchers, policymakers, and health plan representatives have been addressing the issue of risk segmentation. Many risk assessment tools and risk-adjusted payment methodologies have been developed and demonstrated for a variety of populations and payers experiencing various market constraints. The evidence shows that risk-adjusted payments are feasible for most populations receiving acute care, while technical obstacles, political issues, and some research gaps remain.

Risk distribution across multiple health insurance funds in rural Tanzania.

PubMed

Chomi, Eunice Nahyuha; Mujinja, Phares Gamba; Enemark, Ulrika; Hansen, Kristian; Kiwara, Angwara Dennis

2014-01-01

Multiple insurance funds serving different population groups may compromise equity due to differential revenue raising capacity and an unequal distribution of high risk members among the funds. This occurs when the funds exist without mechanisms in place to promote income and risk cross-subsidisation across the funds. This paper analyses whether the risk distribution varies across the Community Health Fund (CHF) and National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) in two districts in Tanzania. Specifically we aim to 1) identify risk factors associated with increased utilisation of health services and 2) compare the distribution of identified risk factors among the CHF, NHIF and non-member households. Data was collected from a survey of 695 households. A multivariate logisitic regression model was used to identify risk factors for increased health care utilisation. Chi-square tests were performed to test whether the distribution of identified risk factors varied across the CHF, NHIF and non-member households. There was a higher concentration of identified risk factors among CHF households compared to those of the NHIF. Non-member households have a similar wealth status to CHF households, but a lower concentration of identified risk factors. Mechanisms for broader risk spreading and cross-subsidisation across the funds are necessary for the promotion of equity. These include risk equalisation to adjust for differential risk distribution and revenue raising capacity of the funds. Expansion of CHF coverage is equally important, by addressing non-financial barriers to CHF enrolment to encourage wealthy non-members to join, as well as subsidised membership for the poorest.

A Practical Approach to Address Uncertainty in Stakeholder Deliberations.

PubMed

Gregory, Robin; Keeney, Ralph L

2017-03-01

This article addresses the difficulties of incorporating uncertainty about consequence estimates as part of stakeholder deliberations involving multiple alternatives. Although every prediction of future consequences necessarily involves uncertainty, a large gap exists between common practices for addressing uncertainty in stakeholder deliberations and the procedures of prescriptive decision-aiding models advanced by risk and decision analysts. We review the treatment of uncertainty at four main phases of the deliberative process: with experts asked to describe possible consequences of competing alternatives, with stakeholders who function both as individuals and as members of coalitions, with the stakeholder committee composed of all stakeholders, and with decisionmakers. We develop and recommend a model that uses certainty equivalents as a theoretically robust and practical approach for helping diverse stakeholders to incorporate uncertainties when evaluating multiple-objective alternatives as part of public policy decisions. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Using multiple lines of evidence to assess the risk of ecosystem collapse

PubMed Central

Regan, Tracey J.; Dinh, Minh Ngoc; Ferrari, Renata; Keith, David A.; Lester, Rebecca; Mouillot, David; Murray, Nicholas J.; Nguyen, Hoang Anh; Nicholson, Emily

2017-01-01

Effective ecosystem risk assessment relies on a conceptual understanding of ecosystem dynamics and the synthesis of multiple lines of evidence. Risk assessment protocols and ecosystem models integrate limited observational data with threat scenarios, making them valuable tools for monitoring ecosystem status and diagnosing key mechanisms of decline to be addressed by management. We applied the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems criteria to quantify the risk of collapse of the Meso-American Reef, a unique ecosystem containing the second longest barrier reef in the world. We collated a wide array of empirical data (field and remotely sensed), and used a stochastic ecosystem model to backcast past ecosystem dynamics, as well as forecast future ecosystem dynamics under 11 scenarios of threat. The ecosystem is at high risk from mass bleaching in the coming decades, with compounding effects of ocean acidification, hurricanes, pollution and fishing. The overall status of the ecosystem is Critically Endangered (plausibly Vulnerable to Critically Endangered), with notable differences among Red List criteria and data types in detecting the most severe symptoms of risk. Our case study provides a template for assessing risks to coral reefs and for further application of ecosystem models in risk assessment. PMID:28931744

Reaching out to Multiple Risk Adolescents.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Porter, Laura; Lindberg, Laura Duberstein

This brief describes multiple risk students and maps their links to settings such as the workplace, church, or the health care system. A secondary goal of the brief is to show that although high-risk students have contact with many social institutions, opportunities for interventions are being missed. Data from the 1995 National Longitudinal…

Multiple environmental contexts and preterm birth risks

EPA Science Inventory

Human health is affected by simultaneous exposure to numerous stressors and amenities, but research often focuses on single exposure models. To address this, a United States county-level Multiple Environmental Domain Index (MEDI) was constructed with data representing five envir...

Using multiple lines of evidence to assess the risk of ecosystem collapse.

PubMed

Bland, Lucie M; Regan, Tracey J; Dinh, Minh Ngoc; Ferrari, Renata; Keith, David A; Lester, Rebecca; Mouillot, David; Murray, Nicholas J; Nguyen, Hoang Anh; Nicholson, Emily

2017-09-27

Effective ecosystem risk assessment relies on a conceptual understanding of ecosystem dynamics and the synthesis of multiple lines of evidence. Risk assessment protocols and ecosystem models integrate limited observational data with threat scenarios, making them valuable tools for monitoring ecosystem status and diagnosing key mechanisms of decline to be addressed by management. We applied the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems criteria to quantify the risk of collapse of the Meso-American Reef, a unique ecosystem containing the second longest barrier reef in the world. We collated a wide array of empirical data (field and remotely sensed), and used a stochastic ecosystem model to backcast past ecosystem dynamics, as well as forecast future ecosystem dynamics under 11 scenarios of threat. The ecosystem is at high risk from mass bleaching in the coming decades, with compounding effects of ocean acidification, hurricanes, pollution and fishing. The overall status of the ecosystem is Critically Endangered (plausibly Vulnerable to Critically Endangered), with notable differences among Red List criteria and data types in detecting the most severe symptoms of risk. Our case study provides a template for assessing risks to coral reefs and for further application of ecosystem models in risk assessment. © 2017 The Authors.

High-risk multiple myeloma: a multifaceted entity, multiple therapeutic challenges.

PubMed

Muchtar, Eli; Magen, Hila; Gertz, Morie A

2017-06-01

The term high-risk multiple myeloma is aimed to identify a heterogeneous group of patients who are more likely to progress and die early of their disease. Therefore, recognition of these patients is crucial. With the increase in the number of treatment options, the outcome for high-risk patients has probably improved, although the true extent of this improvement remains unknown, due to both the heterogeneous components of high-risk disease and its under-representation in clinical trials. In this article, we review the definitions of high-risk disease, emphasizing the fact that no single definition can represent the entire high-risk population. In the second part, we review the treatment options available for the management of high-risk myeloma as well as our general approach for high-risk disease. In light of the poor prognosis associated with high-risk myeloma, even in the current era, new approaches for the management of this subset of patients are needed.

Infection risk in patients on multiple sclerosis therapeutics.

PubMed

Williamson, Eric M; Berger, Joseph R

2015-03-01

The interface of multiple sclerosis (MS) and infection occurs on several levels. First, infectious disease has been postulated as a potential trigger, if not cause, of MS. Second, exacerbation of MS has been well-documented as a consequence of infection, and, lastly, infectious diseases have been recognized as a complication of the therapies currently employed in the treatment of MS. MS is a disease in which immune dysregulation is a key component. Examination of central nervous system (CNS) tissue of people affected by MS demonstrates immune cell infiltration, activation and inflammation. Therapies that alter the immune response have demonstrated efficacy in reducing relapse rates and evidence of brain inflammation on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Despite the altered immune response in MS, there is a lack of evidence that these patients are at increased risk of infectious disease in the absence of treatment or debility. Links between infections and disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) used in MS will be discussed in this review, as well as estimates of occurrence and ways to potentially minimize these risks. We address infection in MS in a comprehensive fashion, including (1) the impact of infections on relapse rates in patients with MS; (2) a review of available infection data from pivotal trials and postmarketing studies for the approved and experimental DMTs, including frequency, types and severity of infections; and (3) relevant risk minimization strategies, particularly as they pertain to progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML).

Climate change risk perception and communication: addressing a critical moment?

PubMed

Pidgeon, Nick

2012-06-01

Climate change is an increasingly salient issue for societies and policy-makers worldwide. It now raises fundamental interdisciplinary issues of risk and uncertainty analysis and communication. The growing scientific consensus over the anthropogenic causes of climate change appears to sit at odds with the increasing use of risk discourses in policy: for example, to aid in climate adaptation decision making. All of this points to a need for a fundamental revision of our conceptualization of what it is to do climate risk communication. This Special Collection comprises seven papers stimulated by a workshop on "Climate Risk Perceptions and Communication" held at Cumberland Lodge Windsor in 2010. Topics addressed include climate uncertainties, images and the media, communication and public engagement, uncertainty transfer in climate communication, the role of emotions, localization of hazard impacts, and longitudinal analyses of climate perceptions. Climate change risk perceptions and communication work is critical for future climate policy and decisions. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Multiple pregnancies achieved with IVF/ICSI and risk of specific congenital malformations: a meta-analysis of cohort studies.

PubMed

Zheng, Zan; Chen, Letao; Yang, Tubao; Yu, Hong; Wang, Hua; Qin, Jiabi

2018-04-01

Studies comparing risk of specific congenital malformations (CM) between multiple pregnancies resulting from IVF/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) and those conceived naturally report conflicting results; furthermore, there is a lack of a complete overview. This meta-analysis aimed to address which types of CM are increased in IVF/ICSI multiple pregnancies compared with those conceived naturally. All studies testing the association between IVF/ICSI multiple pregnancies and specific CM identified in various databases were considered. The literature search yielded 856 records, of which 21 cohort studies were included for analysis. Overall, multiple pregnancies achieved with IVF/ICSI experienced a significantly higher risk of chromosomal defects (relative risk [RR] = 1.36; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.77), urogenital (RR = 1.18; 95% CI: 1.03-1.36) and circulatory (RR = 1.22; 95% CI: 1.01-1.47) system malformations. However, the remaining specific CM, such as cleft lip and/or palate, eye, ear, face and neck, respiratory, musculoskeletal, nervous and digestive system malformations, were similar in the two groups. No substantial heterogeneity was observed for most outcomes except for digestive (P = 0.094; I 2 = 38.3%) and circulatory (P = 0.070; I 2 = 35.2%) system malformations. These findings provide additional information on risks of IVF/ICSI for use when counselling patients. Copyright © 2018 Reproductive Healthcare Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating the lifetime risk of cancer associated with multiple CT scans.

PubMed

Ivanov, V K; Kashcheev, V V; Chekin, S Yu; Menyaylo, A N; Pryakhin, E A; Tsyb, A F; Mettler, F A

2014-12-01

Multiple CT scans are often done on the same patient resulting in an increased risk of cancer. Prior publications have estimated risks on a population basis and often using an effective dose. Simply adding up the risks from single scans does not correctly account for the survival function. A methodology for estimating personal radiation risks attributed to multiple CT imaging using organ doses is presented in this article. The estimated magnitude of the attributable risk fraction for the possible development of radiation-induced cancer indicates the necessity for strong clinical justification when ordering multiple CT scans.

STakeholder-Objective Risk Model (STORM): Determining the aggregated risk of multiple contaminant hazards in groundwater well catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enzenhoefer, R.; Binning, P. J.; Nowak, W.

2015-09-01

Risk is often defined as the product of probability, vulnerability and value. Drinking water supply from groundwater abstraction is often at risk due to multiple hazardous land use activities in the well catchment. Each hazard might or might not introduce contaminants into the subsurface at any point in time, which then affects the pumped quality upon transport through the aquifer. In such situations, estimating the overall risk is not trivial, and three key questions emerge: (1) How to aggregate the impacts from different contaminants and spill locations to an overall, cumulative impact on the value at risk? (2) How to properly account for the stochastic nature of spill events when converting the aggregated impact to a risk estimate? (3) How will the overall risk and subsequent decision making depend on stakeholder objectives, where stakeholder objectives refer to the values at risk, risk attitudes and risk metrics that can vary between stakeholders. In this study, we provide a STakeholder-Objective Risk Model (STORM) for assessing the total aggregated risk. Or concept is a quantitative, probabilistic and modular framework for simulation-based risk estimation. It rests on the source-pathway-receptor concept, mass-discharge-based aggregation of stochastically occuring spill events, accounts for uncertainties in the involved flow and transport models through Monte Carlo simulation, and can address different stakeholder objectives. We illustrate the application of STORM in a numerical test case inspired by a German drinking water catchment. As one may expect, the results depend strongly on the chosen stakeholder objectives, but they are equally sensitive to different approaches for risk aggregation across different hazards, contaminant types, and over time.

Design of a randomized controlled trial for multiple cancer risk behaviors among Spanish-speaking Mexican-origin smokers.

PubMed

Castro, Yessenia; Basen-Engquist, Karen; Fernandez, Maria E; Strong, Larkin L; Eakin, Elizabeth G; Resnicow, Ken; Li, Yisheng; Wetter, David W

2013-03-18

Smoking, poor diet, and physical inactivity account for as much as 60% of cancer risk. Latinos experience profound disparities in health behaviors, as well as the cancers associated with them. Currently, there is a dearth of controlled trials addressing these health behaviors among Latinos. Further, to the best of our knowledge, no studies address all three behaviors simultaneously, are culturally sensitive, and are guided by formative work with the target population. Latinos represent 14% of the U.S. population and are the fastest growing minority group in the country. Efforts to intervene on these important lifestyle factors among Latinos may accelerate the elimination of cancer-related health disparities. The proposed study will evaluate the efficacy of an evidence-based and theoretically-driven Motivation And Problem Solving (MAPS) intervention, adapted and culturally-tailored for reducing cancer risk related to smoking, poor diet, and physical inactivity among high-risk Mexican-origin smokers who are overweight/obese (n = 400). Participants will be randomly assigned to one of two groups: Health Education (HE) or MAPS (HE + up to 18 MAPS counseling calls over 18 months). Primary outcomes are smoking status, servings of fruits and vegetables, and both self-reported and objectively measured physical activity. Outcome assessments will occur at baseline, 6 months, 12 months, and 18 months. The current study will contribute to a very limited evidence base on multiple risk factor intervention studies on Mexican-origin individuals and has the potential to inform both future research and practice related to reducing cancer risk disparities. An effective program targeting multiple cancer risk behaviors modeled after chronic care programs has the potential to make a large public health impact because of the dearth of evidence-based interventions for Latinos and the extended period of support that is provided in such a program. National Institutes of Health Clinical

Infectious mononucleosis and multiple sclerosis - Updated review on associated risk.

PubMed

Sheik-Ali, Sharaf

2017-05-01

There has been substantial evidence accumulating on the role of infectious mononucleosis (IM) and the subsequent risk of obtaining Multiple Sclerosis (MS). Up to date studies not previously explored were reviewed by the author to further clarify the association. Medline and Web of Science were searched with no time constraints for articles exploring an association between Multiple Sclerosis and Infectious Mononucleosis. 24 articles were found, totalling 1063 cases and 13,227 cohort/controls. 23/24 (96%) articles reported a significant association of Infectious Mononucleosis on the risk of subsequent multiple sclerosis. Overall, new literature on IM and risk of MS categorically supports the association. Future work should focus on other risk factors such as age and gender on IM and subsequent risk of MS. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world-The Roskilde recommendations.

PubMed

Selck, Henriette; Adamsen, Peter B; Backhaus, Thomas; Banta, Gary T; Bruce, Peter K H; Burton, G Allen; Butts, Michael B; Boegh, Eva; Clague, John J; Dinh, Khuong V; Doorn, Neelke; Gunnarsson, Jonas S; Hauggaard-Nielsen, Henrik; Hazlerigg, Charles; Hunka, Agnieszka D; Jensen, John; Lin, Yan; Loureiro, Susana; Miraglia, Simona; Munns, Wayne R; Nadim, Farrokh; Palmqvist, Annemette; Rämö, Robert A; Seaby, Lauren P; Syberg, Kristian; Tangaa, Stine R; Thit, Amalie; Windfeld, Ronja; Zalewski, Maciej; Chapman, Peter M

2017-01-01

Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk-Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological context for assessments in human-modified systems; 8) assess risks and benefits to humans and the ecosystem and consider unintended consequences of management actions; 9) avoid excessive conservatism or possible underprotection resulting from sole reliance on binary, numerical benchmarks; and 10) develop adaptive risk-management and regulatory goals based on ranges of uncertainty. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:7-16. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China

PubMed Central

Xu, Wei; Zhuo, Li; Zheng, Jing; Ge, Yi; Gu, Zhihui; Tian, Yugang

2016-01-01

A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales. PMID:26901210

Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China.

PubMed

Xu, Wei; Zhuo, Li; Zheng, Jing; Ge, Yi; Gu, Zhihui; Tian, Yugang

2016-02-17

A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales.

Multiple Threats: The Co-Occurrence of Teen Health Risk Behaviors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lindberg, Laura Duberstein; Boggess, Scott; Williams, Sean

This document presents a portrait of multiple risk-taking among teens. Using recent data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health) and the 1995 National Survey of Adolescent Males, the report describes the extent to which teens engage in multiple health risk behaviors and contrast it with the extent to which teens…

Adopting Open Source Software to Address Software Risks during the Scientific Data Life Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vinay, S.; Downs, R. R.

2012-12-01

Software enables the creation, management, storage, distribution, discovery, and use of scientific data throughout the data lifecycle. However, the capabilities offered by software also present risks for the stewardship of scientific data, since future access to digital data is dependent on the use of software. From operating systems to applications for analyzing data, the dependence of data on software presents challenges for the stewardship of scientific data. Adopting open source software provides opportunities to address some of the proprietary risks of data dependence on software. For example, in some cases, open source software can be deployed to avoid licensing restrictions for using, modifying, and transferring proprietary software. The availability of the source code of open source software also enables the inclusion of modifications, which may be contributed by various community members who are addressing similar issues. Likewise, an active community that is maintaining open source software can be a valuable source of help, providing an opportunity to collaborate to address common issues facing adopters. As part of the effort to meet the challenges of software dependence for scientific data stewardship, risks from software dependence have been identified that exist during various times of the data lifecycle. The identification of these risks should enable the development of plans for mitigating software dependencies, where applicable, using open source software, and to improve understanding of software dependency risks for scientific data and how they can be reduced during the data life cycle.

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-10-01

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors.

PubMed

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-10-26

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

PubMed Central

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-01-01

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic. PMID:27782171

Longitudinal patterns and predictors of multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents: The TRAILS study.

PubMed

de Winter, Andrea F; Visser, Leenke; Verhulst, Frank C; Vollebergh, Wilma A M; Reijneveld, Sijmen A

2016-03-01

Most studies on multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents have cross-sectionally studied a limited number of health behaviors or determinants. To examine the prevalence, longitudinal patterns and predictors of individual and multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents. Eight health risk behaviors (no regular consumption of fruit, vegetables or breakfast, overweight or obesity, physical inactivity, smoking, alcohol use and cannabis use) were assessed in a prospective population study (second and third wave). Participants were assessed in three waves between ages 10 and 17 (2001-2008; n=2230). Multiple linear regression was used to assess the influence of gender, self-control, parental health risk behaviors, parental monitoring and socioeconomic factors on the number of health risk behaviors adjusted for preceding multiple health risk behaviors (analysis: 2013-2014). Rates of >5 health risk behaviors were high: 3.6% at age 13.5 and 10.2% at age 16. Smoking at age 13.5 was frequently associated with health risk behaviors at age 16. No regular consumption of fruit, vegetables and breakfast, overweight or obesity, physical inactivity and smoking predicted the co-occurrence of health risk behaviors at follow-up. Significant predictors of the development of multiple health risk behaviors were adolescents' levels of self-control, socioeconomic status and maternal smoking. Multiple health risk behaviors are common among adolescents. Individual and social factors predict changes in multiple health risk behaviors, showing that prevention targeting multiple risk behaviors is needed. Special attention should be paid to adolescents with low self-control and families with low socioeconomic status or a mother who smokes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multiple Interacting Risk Factors: On Methods for Allocating Risk Factor Interactions.

PubMed

Price, Bertram; MacNicoll, Michael

2015-05-01

A persistent problem in health risk analysis where it is known that a disease may occur as a consequence of multiple risk factors with interactions is allocating the total risk of the disease among the individual risk factors. This problem, referred to here as risk apportionment, arises in various venues, including: (i) public health management, (ii) government programs for compensating injured individuals, and (iii) litigation. Two methods have been described in the risk analysis and epidemiology literature for allocating total risk among individual risk factors. One method uses weights to allocate interactions among the individual risk factors. The other method is based on risk accounting axioms and finding an optimal and unique allocation that satisfies the axioms using a procedure borrowed from game theory. Where relative risk or attributable risk is the risk measure, we find that the game-theory-determined allocation is the same as the allocation where risk factor interactions are apportioned to individual risk factors using equal weights. Therefore, the apportionment problem becomes one of selecting a meaningful set of weights for allocating interactions among the individual risk factors. Equal weights and weights proportional to the risks of the individual risk factors are discussed. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

76 FR 58813 - Guidance for Industry; Measures to Address the Risk for Contamination by Salmonella Species in...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-22

...The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is announcing the availability of a guidance entitled ``Guidance for Industry: Measures to Address the Risk for Contamination by Salmonella Species in Food Containing a Pistachio-Derived Product as an Ingredient.'' The guidance clarifies for manufacturers who produce foods containing a pistachio- derived product as an ingredient that there is a risk that Salmonella species may be present in the incoming pistachio-derived product, and recommends measures to address that risk.

Is Hypovitaminosis D One of the Environmental Risk Factors for Multiple Sclerosis?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pierrot-Deseilligny, Charles; Souberbielle, Jean-Claude

2010-01-01

The role of hypovitaminosis D as a possible risk factor for multiple sclerosis is reviewed. First, it is emphasized that hypovitaminosis D could be only one of the risk factors for multiple sclerosis and that numerous other environmental and genetic risk factors appear to interact and combine to trigger the disease. Secondly, the classical…

Risk Prediction Models for Other Cancers or Multiple Sites

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing other multiple cancers over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Achieving Success with More Students: Addressing the Problem of Students At Risk, K-12.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pennsylvania State Dept. of Education, Harrisburg.

This resource book was developed to provide information that state and local leaders can use to stimulate discussion of the problem of students at risk and support the planning of initiatives that address the problem. An overview defines students at risk, summarizes the content of the book, and lists recent reports and publications on the problem…

Addressing public health risks for cyanobacteria in recreational freshwaters: the Oregon and Vermont framework.

PubMed

Stone, David; Bress, William

2007-01-01

Toxigenic cyanobacteria, commonly known as blue green algae, are an emerging public health issue. The toxins produced by cyanobacteria have been detected across the United States in marine, freshwater and estuarine systems and associated with adverse health outcomes. The intent of this paper is to focus on how to address risk in a recreational freshwater scenario when toxigenic cyanobacteria are present. Several challenges exist for monitoring, assessing and posting water bodies and advising the public when toxigenic cyanobacteria are present. These include addressing different recreational activities that are associated with varying levels of risk, the dynamic temporal and spatial aspects of blooms, data gaps in toxicological information and the lack of training and resources for adequate surveillance. Without uniform federal guidance, numerous states have taken public health action for cyanobacteria with different criteria. Vermont and Oregon independently developed a tiered decision-making framework to reduce risk to recreational users when toxigenic cyanobacteria are present. This framework is based on a combination of qualitative and quantitative information.

Ecological correlates of multiple sexual partnerships among adolescents and young adults in urban Cape Town: a cumulative risk factor approach.

PubMed

Muchiri, Evans; Odimegwu, Clifford; Banda, Pamela; Ntoimo, Lorreta; Adedini, Sunday

2017-07-01

Studies in South Africa have reported unsafe levels of risky sexual behvaiours among adolescents and young adults, with the country reporting the highest burden of HIV/AIDS globally, as well as a high rate of teenage pregnancy. While determinants of risky sexual behaviours have been investigated for factors occurring at the individual and household levels, not fully explored in the literature is the effect of community level factors. Furthermore, it is unclear whether risk factors occurring within the ecology of adolescents and young adults act cumulatively to influence their sexual practices. This article aims to address this knowledge gap using a case study of the Cape Area Panel Study of adolescents and young adults in urban Cape Town, South Africa. The ecological framework was adopted to guide the selection of risk factors at the individual, household, and community levels. Multivariate linear discriminant function analyses were used to select significant risk factors for multiple sexual partnerships and used to produce risk indices for the respondents. The cumulative risk approach was applied to test whether significant risk factors acted cumulatively. Findings point to the importance of ecological factors in influencing outcomes of multiple sexual partnerships among respondents and further demonstrate that ecological risk factors may act cumulatively. These findings are important for South Africa that is grappling with teenage pregnancy and disproportionate HIV epidemic among the youth.

Update on risk stratification and treatment of newly diagnosed multiple myeloma.

PubMed

Kapoor, Prashant; Rajkumar, S Vincent

2011-10-01

Multiple myeloma is the second most common hematologic malignancy. Chromosomal aberrations are important prognostic determinants that influence the clinical decision-making in newly-diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM). Patients are considered high-risk if any of the following features are detected: hypodiploidy, deletion 13 by cytogenetics, t(4;14), t(14;16), t(14;20) and/or 17 p deletion. In the absence of these features patients are considered standard risk. Outside of trials, risk-adapted therapy in the transplant-eligible high-risk patients advocates use of bortezomib-based induction therapy followed by autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) and bortezomib-based maintenance therapy. High-risk, transplant-ineligible patients should also utilize bortezomib as initial therapy since it is known to overcome the poor prognosis associated with some high-risk features. The goal of therapy in high-risk patients is to attain and maintain a state of complete remission as much as possible. In contrast, the standard-risk, transplant-eligible patients may be treated with either lenalidomide-dexamethasone or bortezomib-based therapy followed by ASCT. In such patients, ASCT can also be deferred until first relapse if the patients are tolerating initial therapy well. Lenalidomide maintenance therapy in the post-transplant setting in standard-risk patients is controversial and not recommended routinely. For transplant-ineligible standard-risk patients, multiple options exist, although in the absence direct comparisons, we prefer lenalidomide plus low-dose dexamethasone over melphalan-based combinations. This review outlines evidence-based management approaches in NDMM, with a focus on risk-adapted therapy.

For telehealth to succeed, privacy and security risks must be identified and addressed.

PubMed

Hall, Joseph L; McGraw, Deven

2014-02-01

The success of telehealth could be undermined if serious privacy and security risks are not addressed. For example, sensors that are located in a patient's home or that interface with the patient's body to detect safety issues or medical emergencies may inadvertently transmit sensitive information about household activities. Similarly, routine data transmissions from an app or medical device, such as an insulin pump, may be shared with third-party advertisers. Without adequate security and privacy protections for underlying telehealth data and systems, providers and patients will lack trust in the use of telehealth solutions. Although some federal and state guidelines for telehealth security and privacy have been established, many gaps remain. No federal agency currently has authority to enact privacy and security requirements to cover the telehealth ecosystem. This article examines privacy risks and security threats to telehealth applications and summarizes the extent to which technical controls and federal law adequately address these risks. We argue for a comprehensive federal regulatory framework for telehealth, developed and enforced by a single federal entity, the Federal Trade Commission, to bolster trust and fully realize the benefits of telehealth.

Comparative analysis of Multiple risks in the Western part of Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsereteli, N.; Chelidze, T.; Varazanashvili, O.; Amiranashvili, A.

2009-04-01

Georgia is prone to catastrophes. In the last two decades, there have occurred the following natural disasters: (a) Avalanches in Svaneti and Khevsureti, (b) landslides in the mountainous Achara, floods, (c) hurricane and drought in West and East Georgia, (d) Racha earthquake of 1991 and (e) the Tbilisi Earthquake of 2002. These phenomena are very special both from ecological and from social-economical points of view. By the disaster risk index obtained by the UNDP, Georgia is similar to countries with medium and high level risk. Therefore, natural disasters in Georgia are considered as a negative factor in the development process of the country. This implies the necessity of more active actions by all possible means to reduce the risk of natural disasters at each level and maintain the sustainable economic development of the country, including good education at the universities and schools for real understanding of natural hazards. The main goal of the work here is the assessment of 12 widespread natural disasters and multiple risks for political districts in West Georgia. These natural disasters include earthquakes, landslides, avalanches, floods, mudflows, droughts, hurricanes, lightning, hail, glaze, freezes, mists. The research was based on the following steps: (a) Creation of electronic detailed databases of natural disasters that occurred in Georgia. These databases consist of the parameters of such hazardous phenomena class that caused natural disasters. (b) Quantitative investigation of energetic and spatial-time regularities of 12 natural disasters for the territory of Georgia. Estimation of people and environment (technosphere) vulnerability. (c) Elaboration of mathematical models and algorithms of disasters multiple risks taking into account the concrete conditions: (i) Sharing and generalization of gathered experience in the world. This allows more proper and wide comparison of the multiple risks of Caucasus countries; (ii) Taking into account the

Near-Term Actions to Address Long-Term Climate Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lempert, R. J.

2014-12-01

Addressing climate change requires effective long-term policy making, which occurs when reflecting on potential events decades or more in the future causes policy makers to choose near-term actions different than those they would otherwise pursue. Contrary to some expectations, policy makers do sometimes make such long-term decisions, but not as commonly and successfully as climate change may require. In recent years however, the new capabilities of analytic decision support tools, combined with improved understanding of cognitive and organizational behaviors, has significantly improved the methods available for organizations to manage longer-term climate risks. In particular, these tools allow decision makers to understand what near-term actions consistently contribute to achieving both short- and long-term societal goals, even in the face of deep uncertainty regarding the long-term future. This talk will describe applications of these approaches for infrastructure, water, and flood risk management planning, as well as studies of how near-term choices about policy architectures can affect long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction pathways.

Multi-target drugs to address multiple checkpoints in complex inflammatory pathologies: evolutionary cues for novel "first-in-class" anti-inflammatory drug candidates: a reviewer's perspective.

PubMed

Mathew, Geetha; Unnikrishnan, M K

2015-10-01

Inflammation is a complex, metabolically expensive process involving multiple signaling pathways and regulatory mechanisms which have evolved over evolutionary timescale. Addressing multiple targets of inflammation holistically, in moderation, is probably a more evolutionarily viable strategy, as compared to current therapy which addresses drug targets in isolation. Polypharmacology, addressing multiple targets, is commonly used in complex ailments, suggesting the superior safety and efficacy profile of multi-target (MT) drugs. Phenotypic drug discovery, which generated successful MT and first-in-class drugs in the past, is now re-emerging. A multi-pronged approach, which modulates the evolutionarily conserved, robust and pervasive cellular mechanisms of tissue repair, with AMPK at the helm, regulating the complex metabolic/immune/redox pathways underlying inflammation, is perhaps a more viable strategy than addressing single targets in isolation. Molecules that modulate multiple molecular mechanisms of inflammation in moderation (modulating TH cells toward the anti-inflammatory phenotype, activating AMPK, stimulating Nrf2 and inhibiting NFκB) might serve as a model for a novel Darwinian "first-in-class" therapeutic category that holistically addresses immune, redox and metabolic processes associated with inflammatory repair. Such a multimodal biological activity is supported by the fact that several non-calorific pleiotropic natural products with anti-inflammatory action have been incorporated into diet (chiefly guided by the adaptive development of olfacto-gustatory preferences over evolutionary timescales) rendering such molecules, endowed with evolutionarily privileged molecular scaffolds, naturally oriented toward multiple targets.

Chronic periodontitis with multiple risk factor syndrome: a case report.

PubMed

Shimoe, Masayuki; Yamamoto, Tadashi; Iwamoto, Yoshihiro; Shiomi, Nobuyuki; Maeda, Hiroshi; Nishimura, Fusanori; Takashiba, Shogo

2011-07-01

Multiple risk factor syndrome is a clustering of cardiovascular risk factors, such as diabetes, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and obesity associated epidemiologically with insulin resistance. This report describes the clinical course of a patient suffering from severe periodontitis with multiple risk factor syndrome, and discusses the association between periodontal infection and systemic health. The patient had a history of type 2 diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension for over 10 years. At baseline, her hemoglobin A1 c was 8.1%. However, she had no diabetic complications except periodontitis. The IgG antibody titers against Porphyromonas gingivalis FDC 381 and SU63 were elevated above the mean of healthy subjects +2 standard deviations. Intensive periodontal treatment, including periodontal surgery, was performed to reduce periodontal infection and bacteremia. Her systemic and periodontal conditions were evaluated longitudinally for 10 years. Following periodontal treatment, antibody titers against Porphyromonas gingivalis and hemoglobin A1c values were significantly improved. The other clinical data and medication for her systemic condition also remained stable during supportive periodontal therapy. However, she developed myocardial infarction, and showed continuous deterioration of hemoglobin A1 c level and periodontitis. The long-term clustering of risk factors, such as diabetes, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and periodontitis, are associated with the development of myocardial infarction. Treatment of systemic conditions in combination with comprehensive periodontal treatment is important in management of patients with multiple risk factor syndrome.

Young Adult and Usual Adult Body Mass Index and Multiple Myeloma Risk: A Pooled Analysis in the International Multiple Myeloma Consortium (IMMC).

PubMed

Birmann, Brenda M; Andreotti, Gabriella; De Roos, Anneclaire J; Camp, Nicola J; Chiu, Brian C H; Spinelli, John J; Becker, Nikolaus; Benhaim-Luzon, Véronique; Bhatti, Parveen; Boffetta, Paolo; Brennan, Paul; Brown, Elizabeth E; Cocco, Pierluigi; Costas, Laura; Cozen, Wendy; de Sanjosé, Silvia; Foretová, Lenka; Giles, Graham G; Maynadié, Marc; Moysich, Kirsten; Nieters, Alexandra; Staines, Anthony; Tricot, Guido; Weisenburger, Dennis; Zhang, Yawei; Baris, Dalsu; Purdue, Mark P

2017-06-01

Background: Multiple myeloma risk increases with higher adult body mass index (BMI). Emerging evidence also supports an association of young adult BMI with multiple myeloma. We undertook a pooled analysis of eight case-control studies to further evaluate anthropometric multiple myeloma risk factors, including young adult BMI. Methods: We conducted multivariable logistic regression analysis of usual adult anthropometric measures of 2,318 multiple myeloma cases and 9,609 controls, and of young adult BMI (age 25 or 30 years) for 1,164 cases and 3,629 controls. Results: In the pooled sample, multiple myeloma risk was positively associated with usual adult BMI; risk increased 9% per 5-kg/m 2 increase in BMI [OR, 1.09; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.04-1.14; P = 0.007]. We observed significant heterogeneity by study design ( P = 0.04), noting the BMI-multiple myeloma association only for population-based studies ( P trend = 0.0003). Young adult BMI was also positively associated with multiple myeloma (per 5-kg/m 2 ; OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.3; P = 0.0002). Furthermore, we observed strong evidence of interaction between younger and usual adult BMI ( P interaction <0.0001); we noted statistically significant associations with multiple myeloma for persons overweight (25-<30 kg/m 2 ) or obese (30+ kg/m 2 ) in both younger and usual adulthood (vs. individuals consistently <25 kg/m 2 ), but not for those overweight or obese at only one time period. Conclusions: BMI-associated increases in multiple myeloma risk were highest for individuals who were overweight or obese throughout adulthood. Impact: These findings provide the strongest evidence to date that earlier and later adult BMI may increase multiple myeloma risk and suggest that healthy BMI maintenance throughout life may confer an added benefit of multiple myeloma prevention. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(6); 876-85. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

Risk of breast cancer in families of multiple affected women and men.

PubMed

Bevier, Melanie; Sundquist, Kristina; Hemminki, Kari

2012-04-01

Family history of first and second-degree relatives is known to increase the risk for breast cancer. Less data are available on the risks between defined multiple affected close and distant relatives for which the reliability of data may be an issue. Data on affected males are sparse. These questions and the probable genetic models were addressed in this study by means of a nationwide Swedish Family-Cancer Database. We estimated the effect of family history of breast cancer by Poisson regression for women of at least 30 years of age after adjusting for age, period, region, socioeconomic status, number of children, and age at first birth. The results of the study showed that relative risk (RR) for breast cancer was associated with a first degree as well as second-degree family history. Having at least two female affected first-degree relatives increased the RR at least to 2.8, favoring an additive interaction. The risk was increased around ten times in women with both parents affected. When either a father or a mother was affected, the RRs were nearly identical (RR = 1.73 and 1.74, respectively). The RR for a woman increased more when a brother was affected (RR = 2.48) compared to when a sister was affected (RR = 1.87). Having an affected grandmother showed lower familial excess risks than having an affected half sister (RR = 1.27, and 1.26; and RR = 1.39, and 1.50; respectively, for maternal and paternal relatives). We concluded that when both parents were diagnosed with breast cancer, the risk for the daughter was increased tenfold. Having an affected brother showed a somewhat higher risk than having an affected sister. The data suggest that male breast cancer has a higher genetic basis than female breast cancer, which invites further search of the underlying mechanisms.

Morphological characteristics associated with rupture risk of multiple intracranial aneurysms.

PubMed

Wang, Guang-Xian; Liu, Lan-Lan; Wen, Li; Cao, Yun-Xing; Pei, Yu-Chun; Zhang, Dong

2017-10-01

To identify the morphological parameters that are related to intracranial aneurysms (IAs) rupture using a case-control model. A total of 107 patients with multiple IAs and aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage between August 2011 and February 2017 were enrolled in this study. Characteristics of IAs location, shape, neck width, perpendicular height, depth, maximum size, flow angle, parent vessel diameter (PVD), aspect ratio (AR) and size ratio (SR) were evaluated using CT angiography. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors associated with IAs rupture. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed on the final model, and the optimal thresholds were obtained. IAs located in the internal carotid artery (ICA) was associated with a negative risk of rupture, whereas AR, SR1 (height/PVD) and SR2 (depth/PVD) were associated with increased risk of rupture. When SR was calculated differently, the odds ratio values of these factors were also different. The receiver operating characteristic curve showed that AR, SR1 and SR2 had cut-off values of 1.01, 1.48 and 1.40, respectively. SR3 (maximum size/PVD) was not associated with IAs rupture. IAs located in the ICA are associated with a negative risk of rupture, while high AR (>1.01), SR1 (>1.48) or SR2 (>1.40) are risk factors for multiple IAs rupture. Copyright © 2017 Hainan Medical University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Individual and social determinants of multiple chronic disease behavioral risk factors among youth.

PubMed

Alamian, Arsham; Paradis, Gilles

2012-03-22

Behavioral risk factors are known to co-occur among youth, and to increase risks of chronic diseases morbidity and mortality later in life. However, little is known about determinants of multiple chronic disease behavioral risk factors, particularly among youth. Previous studies have been cross-sectional and carried out without a sound theoretical framework. Using longitudinal data (n = 1135) from Cycle 4 (2000-2001), Cycle 5 (2002-2003) and Cycle 6 (2004-2005) of the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth, a nationally representative sample of Canadian children who are followed biennially, the present study examines the influence of a set of conceptually-related individual/social distal variables (variables situated at an intermediate distance from behaviors), and individual/social ultimate variables (variables situated at an utmost distance from behaviors) on the rate of occurrence of multiple behavioral risk factors (physical inactivity, sedentary behavior, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, and high body mass index) in a sample of children aged 10-11 years at baseline. Multiple behavioral risk factors were assessed using a multiple risk factor score. All statistical analyses were performed using SAS, version 9.1, and SUDAAN, version 9.01. Multivariate longitudinal Poisson models showed that social distal variables including parental/peer smoking and peer drinking (Log-likelihood ratio (LLR) = 187.86, degrees of freedom (DF) = 8, p < .001), as well as individual distal variables including low self-esteem (LLR = 76.94, DF = 4, p < .001) increased the rate of occurrence of multiple behavioral risk factors. Individual ultimate variables including age, sex, and anxiety (LLR = 9.34, DF = 3, p < .05), as well as social ultimate variables including family socioeconomic status, and family structure (LLR = 10.93, DF = 5, p = .05) contributed minimally to the rate of co-occurrence of behavioral risk factors. The results suggest targeting individual

Pregnancy and the Use of Disease-Modifying Therapies in Patients with Multiple Sclerosis: Benefits versus Risks

PubMed Central

Altintas, Ayse; Al Jumah, Mohammed; Sahraian, Mohammadali; Alsharoqi, Issa; AlTahan, Abdurahman; Dahdaleh, Maurice; Deleu, Dirk; Fernandez, Oscar; Inshasi, Jihad; Karabudak, Rana; Taha, Karim; Totolyan, Natalia; Yamout, Bassem I.; Zakaria, Magd; Bohlega, Saeed

2016-01-01

The burden of multiple sclerosis (MS) in women of childbearing potential is increasing, with peak incidence around the age of 30 years, increasing incidence and prevalence, and growing female : male ratio. Guidelines recommend early use of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs), which are contraindicated or recommended with considerable caution, during pregnancy/breastfeeding. Many physicians are reluctant to prescribe them for a woman who is/is planning to be pregnant. Interferons are not absolutely contraindicated during pregnancy, since interferon-β appears to lack serious adverse effects in pregnancy, despite a warning in its labelling concerning risk of spontaneous abortion. Glatiramer acetate, natalizumab, and alemtuzumab also may not induce adverse pregnancy outcomes, although natalizumab may induce haematologic abnormalities in newborns. An accelerated elimination procedure is needed for teriflunomide if pregnancy occurs on treatment or if pregnancy is planned. Current evidence supports the contraindication for fingolimod during pregnancy; data on other DMTs remains limited. Increased relapse rates following withdrawal of some DMTs in pregnancy are concerning and require further research. The postpartum period brings increased risk of disease reactivation that needs to be carefully addressed through effective communication between treating physicians and mothers intending to breastfeed. We address the potential for use of the first- and second-line DMTs in pregnancy and lactation. PMID:28078140

Other High-Risk Factors for Young Drivers--How Graduated Licensing Does, Doesn't, or Could Address Them.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ferguson, Susan A.

2003-01-01

Examines the risk factors underlying the high crash rates of newly licensed drivers and assesses the extent to which existing graduated driver-licensing programs address these risks. Discusses such risks as driver fatigue, not using seat belts, high speeds, high-powered vehicles, and in-vehicle distractions. (Contains 66 references.) (AUTHOR/WFA)

Physical and social environment and the risk of multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Magyari, Melinda; Koch-Henriksen, Nils; Pfleger, Claudia C; Sørensen, Per Soelberg

2014-09-01

The incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Denmark has doubled in women since 1970, whereas it has been almost unchanged in men. The rapid epidemiological changes suggest that environmental factors may modify the risk of MS. To investigate whether occupational, physical, or social environmental influence the risk of MS differently in women than in men. The cohort consists of all 1403 patients (939 women, 464 men) identified through Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry aged 1-55 of years at clinical onset between 2000 and 2004, and up to 25 control persons for each case, matched by sex, year of birth and residential municipality. The same cohort was previously used to investigate the influence of the reproductive factors on the risk of MS. By linkage to Danish population registers we found a slight albeit statistically significant excess for 6 female MS patients who had been employed in agriculture: OR 3.52; 95% CI 1.38-9.00, p=0.008 (0.046 when corrected for multiple significance) and a trend for exposure to outdoor work in 12 : OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.06-3.55, p=0.03 (0.09 when corrected for multiple significance), but the numbers of cases were small, and the effects were not found in men. Educational level, housing conditions in youth, or the presence of children unrelated by blood in the household did not influence the risk of MS. Our study did not reveal any additional factors beyond the previously published childbirths which could explain the extent of the MS incidence increase in women. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Developing predictive systems models to address complexity and relevance for ecological risk assessment.

PubMed

Forbes, Valery E; Calow, Peter

2013-07-01

Ecological risk assessments (ERAs) are not used as well as they could be in risk management. Part of the problem is that they often lack ecological relevance; that is, they fail to grasp necessary ecological complexities. Adding realism and complexity can be difficult and costly. We argue that predictive systems models (PSMs) can provide a way of capturing complexity and ecological relevance cost-effectively. However, addressing complexity and ecological relevance is only part of the problem. Ecological risk assessments often fail to meet the needs of risk managers by not providing assessments that relate to protection goals and by expressing risk in ratios that cannot be weighed against the costs of interventions. Once more, PSMs can be designed to provide outputs in terms of value-relevant effects that are modulated against exposure and that can provide a better basis for decision making than arbitrary ratios or threshold values. Recent developments in the modeling and its potential for implementation by risk assessors and risk managers are beginning to demonstrate how PSMs can be practically applied in risk assessment and the advantages that doing so could have. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

Addressing Risk Assessment for Patient Safety in Hospitals through Information Extraction in Medical Reports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Proux, Denys; Segond, Frédérique; Gerbier, Solweig; Metzger, Marie Hélène

Hospital Acquired Infections (HAI) is a real burden for doctors and risk surveillance experts. The impact on patients' health and related healthcare cost is very significant and a major concern even for rich countries. Furthermore required data to evaluate the threat is generally not available to experts and that prevents from fast reaction. However, recent advances in Computational Intelligence Techniques such as Information Extraction, Risk Patterns Detection in documents and Decision Support Systems allow now to address this problem.

Novel pedigree analysis implicates DNA repair and chromatin remodeling in multiple myeloma risk

PubMed Central

Curtin, Karen; Rajamanickam, Venkatesh; Jayabalan, David; Atanackovic, Djordje; Rajkumar, S. Vincent; Kumar, Shaji; Slager, Susan; Galia, Perrine; Demangel, Delphine; Salama, Mohamed; Joseph, Vijai; Lipkin, Steven M.; Dumontet, Charles; Vachon, Celine M.

2018-01-01

The high-risk pedigree (HRP) design is an established strategy to discover rare, highly-penetrant, Mendelian-like causal variants. Its success, however, in complex traits has been modest, largely due to challenges of genetic heterogeneity and complex inheritance models. We describe a HRP strategy that addresses intra-familial heterogeneity, and identifies inherited segments important for mapping regulatory risk. We apply this new Shared Genomic Segment (SGS) method in 11 extended, Utah, multiple myeloma (MM) HRPs, and subsequent exome sequencing in SGS regions of interest in 1063 MM / MGUS (monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance–a precursor to MM) cases and 964 controls from a jointly-called collaborative resource, including cases from the initial 11 HRPs. One genome-wide significant 1.8 Mb shared segment was found at 6q16. Exome sequencing in this region revealed predicted deleterious variants in USP45 (p.Gln691* and p.Gln621Glu), a gene known to influence DNA repair through endonuclease regulation. Additionally, a 1.2 Mb segment at 1p36.11 is inherited in two Utah HRPs, with coding variants identified in ARID1A (p.Ser90Gly and p.Met890Val), a key gene in the SWI/SNF chromatin remodeling complex. Our results provide compelling statistical and genetic evidence for segregating risk variants for MM. In addition, we demonstrate a novel strategy to use large HRPs for risk-variant discovery more generally in complex traits. PMID:29389935

Novel pedigree analysis implicates DNA repair and chromatin remodeling in multiple myeloma risk.

PubMed

Waller, Rosalie G; Darlington, Todd M; Wei, Xiaomu; Madsen, Michael J; Thomas, Alun; Curtin, Karen; Coon, Hilary; Rajamanickam, Venkatesh; Musinsky, Justin; Jayabalan, David; Atanackovic, Djordje; Rajkumar, S Vincent; Kumar, Shaji; Slager, Susan; Middha, Mridu; Galia, Perrine; Demangel, Delphine; Salama, Mohamed; Joseph, Vijai; McKay, James; Offit, Kenneth; Klein, Robert J; Lipkin, Steven M; Dumontet, Charles; Vachon, Celine M; Camp, Nicola J

2018-02-01

The high-risk pedigree (HRP) design is an established strategy to discover rare, highly-penetrant, Mendelian-like causal variants. Its success, however, in complex traits has been modest, largely due to challenges of genetic heterogeneity and complex inheritance models. We describe a HRP strategy that addresses intra-familial heterogeneity, and identifies inherited segments important for mapping regulatory risk. We apply this new Shared Genomic Segment (SGS) method in 11 extended, Utah, multiple myeloma (MM) HRPs, and subsequent exome sequencing in SGS regions of interest in 1063 MM / MGUS (monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance-a precursor to MM) cases and 964 controls from a jointly-called collaborative resource, including cases from the initial 11 HRPs. One genome-wide significant 1.8 Mb shared segment was found at 6q16. Exome sequencing in this region revealed predicted deleterious variants in USP45 (p.Gln691* and p.Gln621Glu), a gene known to influence DNA repair through endonuclease regulation. Additionally, a 1.2 Mb segment at 1p36.11 is inherited in two Utah HRPs, with coding variants identified in ARID1A (p.Ser90Gly and p.Met890Val), a key gene in the SWI/SNF chromatin remodeling complex. Our results provide compelling statistical and genetic evidence for segregating risk variants for MM. In addition, we demonstrate a novel strategy to use large HRPs for risk-variant discovery more generally in complex traits.

GEMS Project: A Platform to Investigate Multiple Sclerosis Risk

PubMed Central

Xia, Zongqi; White, Charles C.; Owen, Emily K.; Von Korff, Alina; Clarkson, Sarah R.; McCabe, Cristin A.; Cimpean, Maria; Winn, Phoebe A.; Hoesing, Ashley; Steele, Sonya U.; Cortese, Irene C. M.; Chitnis, Tanuja; Weiner, Howard L.; Reich, Daniel S.; Chibnik, Lori B.; De Jager, Philip L.

2015-01-01

The Genes and Environment in Multiple Sclerosis (GEMS) project establishes a platform to investigate the events leading to MS in at-risk individuals. It has recruited 2,632 first-degree relatives from across the USA. Using an integrated genetic and environmental risk score, we identified subjects with twice the MS risk when compared to the average family member, and we report an initial incidence rate in these subjects that is 30 times greater than that of sporadic MS. We discuss the feasibility of large-scale studies of asymptomatic at-risk subjects that leverage modern tools of subject recruitment to execute collaborative projects. PMID:26583565

Multiple imputation for handling missing outcome data when estimating the relative risk.

PubMed

Sullivan, Thomas R; Lee, Katherine J; Ryan, Philip; Salter, Amy B

2017-09-06

Multiple imputation is a popular approach to handling missing data in medical research, yet little is known about its applicability for estimating the relative risk. Standard methods for imputing incomplete binary outcomes involve logistic regression or an assumption of multivariate normality, whereas relative risks are typically estimated using log binomial models. It is unclear whether misspecification of the imputation model in this setting could lead to biased parameter estimates. Using simulated data, we evaluated the performance of multiple imputation for handling missing data prior to estimating adjusted relative risks from a correctly specified multivariable log binomial model. We considered an arbitrary pattern of missing data in both outcome and exposure variables, with missing data induced under missing at random mechanisms. Focusing on standard model-based methods of multiple imputation, missing data were imputed using multivariate normal imputation or fully conditional specification with a logistic imputation model for the outcome. Multivariate normal imputation performed poorly in the simulation study, consistently producing estimates of the relative risk that were biased towards the null. Despite outperforming multivariate normal imputation, fully conditional specification also produced somewhat biased estimates, with greater bias observed for higher outcome prevalences and larger relative risks. Deleting imputed outcomes from analysis datasets did not improve the performance of fully conditional specification. Both multivariate normal imputation and fully conditional specification produced biased estimates of the relative risk, presumably since both use a misspecified imputation model. Based on simulation results, we recommend researchers use fully conditional specification rather than multivariate normal imputation and retain imputed outcomes in the analysis when estimating relative risks. However fully conditional specification is not without its

European multiple sclerosis risk variants in the south Asian population.

PubMed

Pandit, Lekha; Ban, Maria; Beecham, Ashley Harris; McCauley, Jacob L; Sawcer, Stephen; D'Cunha, Anitha; Malli, Chaitra; Malik, Omar

2016-10-01

In less than a decade, genomewide association studies have identified over 100 single-nucleotide variants that are associated with increased risk of developing multiple sclerosis. However, since these studies have focused almost exclusively on European populations, it is unclear what role these variants might play in determining risk in other ethnic groups. To assess the effects of European multiple sclerosis-associated risk variants in the south Asian population. Using a combination of chip-based genotyping and next-generation sequencing, we have assessed 109 European-associated variants in a total of 270 cases and 555 controls from the south Asian population. We found that two-thirds of the tested variants (72/109) showed over representation of the European risk allele in south Asian cases (p < 0.0003). In the rest of the Immunochip array, the most associated variant was rs7318477 which maps close to TNFSF13B, the gene for the B-cell-related protein BAFF. Our data indicate substantial overlap in genetic risk architecture between Europeans and south Asians and suggest that the aetiology of the disease may be largely independent of ethnicity. © The Author(s), 2016.

A Risk Score for Predicting Multiple Sclerosis.

PubMed

Dobson, Ruth; Ramagopalan, Sreeram; Topping, Joanne; Smith, Paul; Solanky, Bhavana; Schmierer, Klaus; Chard, Declan; Giovannoni, Gavin

2016-01-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) develops as a result of environmental influences on the genetically susceptible. Siblings of people with MS have an increased risk of both MS and demonstrating asymptomatic changes in keeping with MS. We set out to develop an MS risk score integrating both genetic and environmental risk factors. We used this score to identify siblings at extremes of MS risk and attempted to validate the score using brain MRI. 78 probands with MS, 121 of their unaffected siblings and 103 healthy controls were studied. Personal history was taken, and serological and genetic analysis using the illumina immunochip was performed. Odds ratios for MS associated with each risk factor were derived from existing literature, and the log values of the odds ratios from each of the risk factors were combined in an additive model to provide an overall score. Scores were initially calculated using log odds ratio from the HLA-DRB1*1501 allele only, secondly using data from all MS-associated SNPs identified in the 2011 GWAS. Subjects with extreme risk scores underwent validation studies. MRI was performed on selected individuals. There was a significant difference in the both risk scores between people with MS, their unaffected siblings and healthy controls (p<0.0005). Unaffected siblings had a risk score intermediate to people with MS and controls (p<0.0005). The best performing risk score generated an AUC of 0.82 (95%CI 0.75-0.88). The risk score demonstrates an AUC on the threshold for clinical utility. Our score enables the identification of a high-risk sibling group to inform pre-symptomatic longitudinal studies.

Addressing Gender-Based Violence at Schools for Learners with Intellectual Disability in Gauteng, South Africa: A Multiple Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phasha, T. N.; Nyokangi, D.

2012-01-01

This paper reports part of the findings of the study which investigated sexual violence at two schools catering specifically for learners with mild intellectual disability in Gauteng Province. It looks particularly on participants' suggestions for addressing sexual violence in such school. A multiple case study within the qualitative research…

Assessment of BTEX-induced health risk under multiple uncertainties at a petroleum-contaminated site: An integrated fuzzy stochastic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaodong; Huang, Guo H.

2011-12-01

Groundwater pollution has gathered more and more attention in the past decades. Conducting an assessment of groundwater contamination risk is desired to provide sound bases for supporting risk-based management decisions. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop an integrated fuzzy stochastic approach to evaluate risks of BTEX-contaminated groundwater under multiple uncertainties. It consists of an integrated interval fuzzy subsurface modeling system (IIFMS) and an integrated fuzzy second-order stochastic risk assessment (IFSOSRA) model. The IIFMS is developed based on factorial design, interval analysis, and fuzzy sets approach to predict contaminant concentrations under hybrid uncertainties. Two input parameters (longitudinal dispersivity and porosity) are considered to be uncertain with known fuzzy membership functions, and intrinsic permeability is considered to be an interval number with unknown distribution information. A factorial design is conducted to evaluate interactive effects of the three uncertain factors on the modeling outputs through the developed IIFMS. The IFSOSRA model can systematically quantify variability and uncertainty, as well as their hybrids, presented as fuzzy, stochastic and second-order stochastic parameters in health risk assessment. The developed approach haw been applied to the management of a real-world petroleum-contaminated site within a western Canada context. The results indicate that multiple uncertainties, under a combination of information with various data-quality levels, can be effectively addressed to provide supports in identifying proper remedial efforts. A unique contribution of this research is the development of an integrated fuzzy stochastic approach for handling various forms of uncertainties associated with simulation and risk assessment efforts.

Multiple factor indices of protection or risk towards disease.

PubMed

Belfiore, F; Iannello, S

2001-02-01

In order to combine several factors entailing protection or risk towards disease and to calculate a Protection Multiple Factor Index (PMFI) or, conversely, a Risk Multiple Factor Index (RMFI), we propose the following formulae: (1) PMFI = 2/[(mF)2 + 1] and (2) RMFI = 2/[(imF)2 + 1], where mF is the mean value of the factors considered and imF is the inverse (or reciprocal) of mF. In calculating mF, the value of each 'risk factor' observed in the patient under study (Vp) is expressed by taking the mean normal value (Vmn) as the unit, i.e. by calculating the ratio Vp/Vmn, whereas each 'protection factor' is expressed as the reciprocal of this ratio, i.e. as Vmn/Vp. The 'weight' of the various factors can be changed through multiplication by a number > 1 or < 1. Values of both PMFI and RMFI are always close to 1 in normal subjects, with extreme variations among patients between 0 and 2. The sum of the values of PMFI and RMFI is always equal to 2, so that one index can be deduced from the other. When factors are only two (F1 and F2), the formulae may be simplified as follows: PMFI = 2/[F1 x F2) + 1] and RMFI = 2/[(iF1 x iF2) + 1], where iF = 1/F, with only minimal changes in results.

Multiple Myeloma Index for Risk of Infection.

PubMed

T, Valkovic; V, Gacic; A, Nacinovic-Duletic

2018-01-01

Based on our earlier research into the main characteristics and risk factors for infections in hospitalized patients with multiple myeloma, we created the numerical Multiple Myeloma Index for Risk of Infection (MMIRI) to predict infection in myeloma patients. The included factors that could influence the pathogenesis and incidence of infections were sex, performance status, Durie Salmon stage of disease, International Staging System, serum creatinine level, immune paresis, neutropenia, serum ferritin level, the presence of any catheters, disease duration, stable/progressive disease, and type of therapy. For each of these parameters, the strength of association with infection was statistically estimated and specific number of points was assigned to each of these parameters, proportional to the strength of the association. When designing the MMIRI, we included only those parameters that we determined were pathophysiologically associated with the infection. After further statistical analysis, we identified an optimal cutoff score of 6 or above as indicating a significant risk for infection, with a sensitivity of 93.2% and specificity of 80.2%. The scoring system in the retrospective receiver operating characteristic analysis showed an area under the curve of 0.918. The potential value of the MMIRI is the possibility of identifying those patients who would benefit from the prophylactic administration of antibiotics and other anti-infective measures while minimizing the contribution to antibiotic resistance related to the overuse of these drugs. As far as we know, this index represents the first attempt to create such an instrument for predicting the occurrence of infections in myeloma patients.

Patterns of multiple health risk-behaviours in university students and their association with mental health: application of latent class analysis.

PubMed

Kwan, M Y; Arbour-Nicitopoulos, K P; Duku, E; Faulkner, G

2016-08-01

University and college campuses may be the last setting where it is possible to comprehensively address the health of a large proportion of the young adult population. It is important that health promoters understand the collective challenges students are facing, and to better understand the broader lifestyle behavioural patterning evident during this life stage. The purpose of this study was to examine the clustering of modifiable health-risk behaviours and to explore the relationship between these identified clusters and mental health outcomes among a large Canadian university sample. Undergraduate students (n = 837; mean age = 21 years) from the University of Toronto completed the National College Health Assessment survey. The survey consists of approximately 300 items, including assessments of student health status, mental health and health-risk behaviours. Latent class analysis was used to identify patterning based on eight salient health-risk behaviours (marijuana use, other illicit drug use, risky sex, smoking, binge drinking, poor diet, physical inactivity, and insufficient sleep). A three-class model based on student behavioural patterns emerged: "typical," "high-risk" and "moderately healthy." Results also found high-risk students reporting significantly higher levels of stress than typical students (χ2(1671) = 7.26, p < .01). Students with the highest likelihood of engaging in multiple health-risk behaviours reported poorer mental health, particularly as it relates to stress. Although these findings should be interpreted with caution due to the 28% response rate, they do suggest that interventions targeting specific student groups with similar patterning of multiple health-risk behaviours may be needed.

Occupational Health Promotion Programs to Reduce Cardiovascular Risk.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glasgow, Russell E.; Terborg, James R.

1988-01-01

Surveys literature on worksite health promotion programs targeting cardiovascular risk factors. Reviews findings on health-risk appraisal, hypertension control, smoking cessation, weight reduction, exercise, and programs addressing multiple risk factors. Discusses current knowledge, highlights exemplary studies, and identifies problems and…

Risk of multiple myeloma in a case-spouse study.

PubMed

Andreotti, Gabriella; Katz, Michael; Hoering, Antje; Van Ness, Brian; Crowley, John; Morgan, Gareth; Hoover, Robert N; Baris, Dalsu; Durie, Brian

2016-01-01

This study examined lifestyle, occupation, medical history and medication use with multiple myeloma risk in a case-spouse study (481 patients, 351 spouses). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using logistic regression. Compared to spouse controls, cases were more likely to have a family history of multiple myeloma (OR = 2.8, 95% CI = 1.2-6.4) and smoked cigarettes (OR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.2-2.5), but less likely to have consumed alcohol (OR = 0.6, 95% CI = 0.4-0.9). Nurse/health practitioners (OR = 2.8, 95% CI = 1.3-6.2) and production workers (OR = 3.7, 95% CI = 1.0-13.7) had significantly increased risks; and some occupations linked to diesel exhaust had elevated, but non-significant, risks. History of herpes simplex (OR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.2-2.4), shingles (OR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.1-2.7), sexually transmitted diseases (OR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.0-3.7) and medication allergies (OR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.2-2.4) were associated with higher risks. Use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, anti-convulsants, antidepressants, statins and diuretics were associated with reduced risks. The results are consistent with previous population-based studies and support the utility of patient databanks and spouse controls as a resource in epidemiologic research.

Moving beyond regression techniques in cardiovascular risk prediction: applying machine learning to address analytic challenges

PubMed Central

Goldstein, Benjamin A.; Navar, Ann Marie; Carter, Rickey E.

2017-01-01

Abstract Risk prediction plays an important role in clinical cardiology research. Traditionally, most risk models have been based on regression models. While useful and robust, these statistical methods are limited to using a small number of predictors which operate in the same way on everyone, and uniformly throughout their range. The purpose of this review is to illustrate the use of machine-learning methods for development of risk prediction models. Typically presented as black box approaches, most machine-learning methods are aimed at solving particular challenges that arise in data analysis that are not well addressed by typical regression approaches. To illustrate these challenges, as well as how different methods can address them, we consider trying to predicting mortality after diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction. We use data derived from our institution's electronic health record and abstract data on 13 regularly measured laboratory markers. We walk through different challenges that arise in modelling these data and then introduce different machine-learning approaches. Finally, we discuss general issues in the application of machine-learning methods including tuning parameters, loss functions, variable importance, and missing data. Overall, this review serves as an introduction for those working on risk modelling to approach the diffuse field of machine learning. PMID:27436868

Risk evaluation and monitoring in multiple sclerosis therapeutics.

PubMed

Clanet, Michel C; Wolinsky, Jerry S; Ashton, Raymond J; Hartung, Hans-Peter; Reingold, Stephen C

2014-09-01

Risk for multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapies (DMT) must be assessed on an ongoing basis. Early concerns regarding the first-approved DMTs for MS have been mitigated, but recently licensed therapies have been linked to possibly greater risks. The objective of this review is to discuss risk assessment in MS therapeutics based on an international workshop and comprehensive literature search and recommend strategies for risk assessment/monitoring. Assessment and perception of therapeutic risks vary between patients, doctors and regulators. Acceptability of risk depends on the magnitude of risk and the demonstrated clinical benefits of any agent. Safety signals must be distinguishable from chance occurrences in a clinical trial and in long-term use of medications. Post-marketing research is crucial for assessing longer-term safety in large patient cohorts. Reporting of adverse events is becoming more proactive, allowing more rapid identification of risks. Communication about therapeutic risks and their relationship to clinical benefit must involve patients in shared decision making. It is difficult to produce a general risk-assessment algorithm for all MS therapies. Specific algorithms are required for each DMT in every treated-patient population. New and evolving risks must be evaluated and communicated rapidly to allow patients and physicians to be well informed and able to share treatment decisions. © The Author(s) 2013.

Low bone density risk is higher in exercising women with multiple triad risk factors.

PubMed

Gibbs, Jenna C; Nattiv, Aurelia; Barrack, Michelle T; Williams, Nancy I; Rauh, Mitchell J; Nichols, Jeanne F; De Souza, Mary Jane

2014-01-01

The cumulative effect of the female athlete triad (Triad) risk factors on the likelihood of low bone mineral density (BMD) in exercising women is unclear. This study aimed to determine the risk of low BMD in exercising women with multiple Triad risk factors. We retrospectively examined cross-sectional data from 437 exercising women (mean ± SD age of 18.0 ± 3.5 yr, weighed 57.5 ± 7.1 kg with 24.5% ± 6.1% body fat) obtained at baseline from 4 prospective cohort studies examining Triad risk factors. Questionnaires were completed to obtain information on demographic characteristics, self-reported eating attitudes/behaviors, menstrual function, sport/activity participation, and medication use. Height and body weight were measured. BMD was measured using dual energy x-ray absorptiometry. Low BMD was defined as z-scores of <-1 and ≤-2. Chi-square tests were performed to determine the percentage of women with low BMD who met the criteria for individual (current oligo/amenorrhea, late menarche, low body mass index (BMI), elevated dietary restraint, lean sport/activity participation) or multiple (2, 3, 4, or 5) Triad risk factors. Late menarche and low BMI were associated with the highest percentage of low BMD (z-score < -1), 55% and 54%, respectively, and low BMD (z-score ≤-2), 14% and 16%, respectively. The percentage of participants with low BMD (z-score < -1 and ≤-2) increased from 10% to 62% and from 2% to 18%, respectively, as women met the criteria for an increasing number of Triad risk factors. A cumulative number of Triad risk factors were associated with an increased risk of low BMD, suggesting a dose-response association between the number of Triad risk factors and BMD in exercising women. Further research should be conducted to develop a user-friendly algorithm integrating these indicators of risk for low BMD in exercising women (particularly factors associated with low BMI/body weight, menstrual dysfunction, lean sport/activity participation, and

Modest familial risks for multiple sclerosis: a registry-based study of the population of Sweden

PubMed Central

Westerlind, Helga; Ramanujam, Ryan; Uvehag, Daniel; Kuja-Halkola, Ralf; Boman, Marcus; Bottai, Matteo; Lichtenstein, Paul

2014-01-01

Data on familial recurrence rates of complex diseases such as multiple sclerosis give important hints to aetiological factors such as the importance of genes and environment. By linking national registries, we sought to avoid common limitations of clinic-based studies such as low numbers, poor representation of the population and selection bias. Through the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry and a nationwide hospital registry, a total of 28 396 patients with multiple sclerosis were identified. We used the national Multi-Generation Registry to identify first and second degree relatives as well as cousins, and the Swedish Twin Registry to identify twins of patients with multiple sclerosis. Crude and age corrected familial risks were estimated for cases and found to be in the same range as previously published figures. Matched population-based controls were used to calculate relative risks, revealing lower estimates of familial multiple sclerosis risks than previously reported, with a sibling recurrence risk (λs = 7.1; 95% confidence interval: 6.42–7.86). Surprisingly, despite a well-established lower prevalence of multiple sclerosis amongst males, the relative risks were equal among maternal and paternal relations. A previously reported increased risk in maternal relations could thus not be replicated. An observed higher transmission rate from fathers to sons compared with mothers to sons suggested a higher transmission to offspring from the less prevalent sex; therefore, presence of the so-called ‘Carter effect’ could not be excluded. We estimated the heritability of multiple sclerosis using 74 757 twin pairs with known zygosity, of which 315 were affected with multiple sclerosis, and added information from 2.5 million sibling pairs to increase power. The heritability was estimated to be 0.64 (0.36–0.76), whereas the shared environmental component was estimated to be 0.01 (0.00–0.18). In summary, whereas multiple sclerosis is to a great extent an

Developing a Gap Taxonomy to Address Crew Health Risks in NASA's Human Research Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kundrot, Craig E.; Edwards, J. Michelle

2009-01-01

The mission of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is to understand and reduce the risk to crew health and performance in exploration missions. The HRP addresses 27 specific risks by identifying and then filling gaps in understanding the risks and in the ability to disposition the risks. The primary bases for identifying gaps have been past experience and requirements definition. This approach has been very effective in identifying some important, relevant gaps, but may be inadequate for identifying gaps outside the past experience base. We are exploring the use of a gap taxonomy as a comprehensive, underlying conceptual framework that allows a more systematic identification of gaps. The taxonomy is based on these stages in medical care: prediction, prevention, detection/diagnosis, treatment, monitoring, rehabilitation, and lifetime surveillance. This gap taxonomy approach identifies new gaps in HRP health risks. Many of the new gaps suggest risk reduction approaches that are more cost effective than present approaches. A major benefit of the gap taxonomy approach is to identify new, economical approaches that reduce the likelihood and/or consequence of a risk.

Single and Multiple Suicide Attempts and Associated Health Risk Factors in New Hampshire Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosenberg, Harriet J.; Jankowski, Mary K.; Sengupta, Anjana; Wolfe, Rosemarie S.; Wolford, George L., II; Rosenberg, Stanley D.

2005-01-01

In this study we examined self-reported suicide attempts and their relationship to other health risk factors in a community sample of 16,644 adolescents. Fifteen percent endorsed suicide attempts (10% single; 5% multiple attempts). We hypothesized that multiple attempters would show higher prevalence of comorbid health risks than single or…

Moving beyond regression techniques in cardiovascular risk prediction: applying machine learning to address analytic challenges.

PubMed

Goldstein, Benjamin A; Navar, Ann Marie; Carter, Rickey E

2017-06-14

Risk prediction plays an important role in clinical cardiology research. Traditionally, most risk models have been based on regression models. While useful and robust, these statistical methods are limited to using a small number of predictors which operate in the same way on everyone, and uniformly throughout their range. The purpose of this review is to illustrate the use of machine-learning methods for development of risk prediction models. Typically presented as black box approaches, most machine-learning methods are aimed at solving particular challenges that arise in data analysis that are not well addressed by typical regression approaches. To illustrate these challenges, as well as how different methods can address them, we consider trying to predicting mortality after diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction. We use data derived from our institution's electronic health record and abstract data on 13 regularly measured laboratory markers. We walk through different challenges that arise in modelling these data and then introduce different machine-learning approaches. Finally, we discuss general issues in the application of machine-learning methods including tuning parameters, loss functions, variable importance, and missing data. Overall, this review serves as an introduction for those working on risk modelling to approach the diffuse field of machine learning. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.

Associations between multiple health risk behaviors and mental health among Chinese college students.

PubMed

Ye, Yong-ling; Wang, Pei-gang; Qu, Geng-cong; Yuan, Shuai; Phongsavan, Philayrath; He, Qi-qiang

2016-01-01

Although there is substantial evidence that health risk behaviors increase risks of premature morbidity and mortality, little is known about the multiple health risk behaviors in Chinese college students. Here, we investigated the prevalence of multiple health risk behaviors and its relation to mental health among Chinese college students. A cross-sectional study was conducted in Wuhan, China from May to June 2012. The students reported their health risk behaviors using self-administered questionnaires. Depression and anxiety were assessed using the self-rating depression scale and self-rating anxiety scale, respectively. A total of 2422 college students (1433 males) aged 19.7 ± 1.2 years were participated in the study. The prevalence of physical inactivity, sleep disturbance, poor dietary behavior, Internet addiction disorder (IAD), frequent alcohol use and current smoking was 62.0, 42.6, 29.8, 22.3, 11.6 and 9.3%, respectively. Significantly increased risks for depression and anxiety were found among students with frequent alcohol use, sleep disturbance, poor dietary behavior and IAD. Two-step cluster analysis identified two different clusters. Participants in the cluster with more unhealthy behaviors showed significantly increased risk for depression (odds ratio (OR): 2.21; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.83, 2.67) and anxiety (OR: 2.32; 95% CI: 1.85, 2.92). This study indicates that a relatively high prevalence of multiple health risk behaviors was found among Chinese college students. Furthermore, the clustering of health risk behaviors was significantly associated with increased risks for depression and anxiety.

Iudicium: An Educational Intervention for addressing Risk Perception of Alcohol Abuse in Adolescents.

PubMed

Bajac, Héctor; Feliu-Soler, Albert; Meerhoff, Diana; Latorre, Laura; Elices, Matilde

2016-03-02

Negative consequences of alcohol abuse during adolescence have been extensively described. Consequently, different interventions have been developed to address this issue. This article describes the implementation and evaluation of Iudicium, an educational drama-based intervention designed to increase risk perception of alcohol abuse. In this activity, high school students judge a case in which alcohol consumption had negative consequences (e.g., fights, unwanted pregnancy, and car accident). A trial is simulated and after that, a debriefing takes place during which the activity is discussed and informational materials on the effects of alcohol is provided and commented. A total of 318 students (55.7% females and 44.3% males) from five high schools participated in the study. Data regarding risk perception of alcohol abuse and adequacy of the activity was collected before and after the intervention. Results suggest that Iudicium was effective in increasing risk perception of abusive drinking, reaching a 34% of increase regarding risk perception. Participants highlighted the experiential component of Iudicium as a strength. The intervention was well-accepted, easy to understand and apparently an effective tool for increasing risk perception of alcohol abuse amongst high school students.

Multiple risk factor interventions for primary prevention of coronary heart disease

PubMed Central

Ebrahim, Shah; Beswick, Andrew; Burke, Margaret; Smith, George Davey

2014-01-01

Background Primary prevention programmes in many countries attempt to reduce mortality and morbidity due to coronary heart disease (CHD) through risk factor modification. It is widely believed that multiple risk factor intervention using counselling and educational methods is efficacious and cost-effective and should be expanded. Recent trials examining risk factor changes have cast considerable doubt on the effectiveness of these multiple risk factor interventions. Objectives To assess the effects of multiple risk factor intervention for reducing cardiovascular risk factors, total mortality, and mortality from CHD among adults without clinical evidence of established cardiovascular disease. Search strategy MEDLINE was searched for the original review to 1995. This was updated by searching the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials on The Cochrane Library Issue 3 2001, MEDLINE(2000 to September 2001) and EMBASE (1998 to September 2001). Selection criteria Intervention studies using counselling or education to modify more than one cardiovascular risk factor in adults from general populations, occupational groups, or high risk groups. Trials of less than 6 months duration were excluded. Data collection and analysis Data were extracted by two reviewers independently. Investigators were contacted to obtain missing information. Main results A total of 39 trials were found of which ten reported clinical event data. In the ten trials with clinical event end-points, the pooled odds ratios for total and CHD mortality were 0.96 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.92 to 1.01) and 0.96 (95% CI 0.89 to 1.04) respectively. Net changes in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and blood cholesterol were (weighted mean differences) −3.6 mmHg (95% CI −3.9 to −3.3 mmHg), −2.8 mmHg (95% CI −2.9 to −2.6 mmHg) and −0.07 mMol/l (95% CI −0.8 to −0.06 mMol/l) respectively. Odds of reduction in smoking prevalence was 20% (95% CI 8% to 31%). Statistical heterogeneity

The power of special friends: addressing the risk of child abuse through mentoring.

PubMed

Vertermark, P; Russell, J; Mulvey, N

1995-01-01

Since 1989 two Saint Paul, Minnesota agencies have carried on a collaborative effort called the Befriender Volunteer Project. This project is designed to address the risk factors associated with child abuse which are often inherent in families headed by an adolescent. Between November of 1993 and October of 1994 a self-study of this project was conducted. An important objective of this study was to determine how the positive elements of a successful relationship affected the risk factors in these young families. Consistent with what we know about the effects of successful helping relationships, most significant improvements in young mothers were found in the areas of hopefulness, self-esteem, and parenting skills. Of significant note was the observation of the various ways the Befriender/young mother relationship enhanced the young mothers' potential for breaking the generational cycle of risk for child abuse and neglect.

First Evaluation of a Contingency Management Intervention Addressing Adolescent Substance Use and Sexual Risk Behaviors: Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents

PubMed Central

Letourneau, Elizabeth J.; McCart, Michael R.; Sheidow, Ashli J.; Mauro, Pia M.

2016-01-01

There is a need for interventions that comprehensively address youth substance use disorders (SUD) and sexual risk behaviors. Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents (RRTA) adapts a validated family-focused intervention for youth SUD to include sexual risk reduction components in a single intervention. In this first evaluation of RRTA, drug court involved youth were randomly assigned to RRTA (N = 45) or usual services (US; N = 60) and followed through 12-months post-baseline. RRTA included weekly cognitive behavior therapy and behavior management training and contingency-contracting with a point earning system managed by caregivers targeting drug use and sexual risk antecedents. Longitudinal models estimated within-group change and between-group differences through 6- and 12-month follow-up on outcomes for substance use, sexual risk behaviors, and protective HIV behaviors. Robust effects of the intervention were not detected under conditions of the study that included potent background interventions by the juvenile drug court. Considerations about future development and testing of sexual risk reduction therapy for youth are discussed, including the potential role of contingency management in future interventions. PMID:27629581

An Updated Meta-Analysis of Risk of Multiple Sclerosis following Infectious Mononucleosis

PubMed Central

Handel, Adam E.; Williamson, Alexander J.; Disanto, Giulio; Handunnetthi, Lahiru; Giovannoni, Gavin; Ramagopalan, Sreeram V.

2010-01-01

Background Multiple sclerosis (MS) appears to develop in genetically susceptible individuals as a result of environmental exposures. Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection is an almost universal finding among individuals with MS. Symptomatic EBV infection as manifested by infectious mononucleosis (IM) has been shown in a previous meta-analysis to be associated with the risk of MS, however a number of much larger studies have since been published. Methods/Principal Findings We performed a Medline search to identify articles published since the original meta-analysis investigating MS risk following IM. A total of 18 articles were included in this study, including 19390 MS patients and 16007 controls. We calculated the relative risk of MS following IM using a generic inverse variance with random effects model. This showed that the risk of MS was strongly associated with IM (relative risk (RR) 2.17; 95% confidence interval 1.97–2.39; p<10−54). Discussion Our results establish firmly that a history of infectious mononucleosis significantly increases the risk of multiple sclerosis. Future work should focus on the mechanism of this association and interaction with other risk factors. PMID:20824132

The use of technology to address patterns of risk among teenage drivers.

PubMed

Brovold, Shawn; Ward, Nic; Donath, Max; Simon, Stephen; Shankwitz, Craig; Creaser, Janet

2007-01-01

The crash risk of teens is high, with fatal crash rates of teen drivers higher than any other age group. New approaches to reduce teen traffic fatalities are clearly needed. A possible approach to reduce the incidence of teen driver crashes and fatalities is through the use of vehicle-based intelligent driver support systems. To be most effective, the system should address the behaviors associated with an overwhelming number of teen fatal crashes: speed, low seatbelt use, and alcohol impairment. In-vehicle technology also offers an opportunity to address the issue of inexperience through enforcement of certain Graduated Driver's License provisions. To fully understand the capability of such technologies, there should be a concerted effort to further their development, and human factors testing should take place to understand their effects on the driver. If successfully implemented, a Teen Driver Support System (TDSS), such as the one described here, could significantly decrease the number of teens killed in traffic crashes.

Risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma incorporating revised IMWG diagnostic criteria.

PubMed

Lakshman, Arjun; Rajkumar, S Vincent; Buadi, Francis K; Binder, Moritz; Gertz, Morie A; Lacy, Martha Q; Dispenzieri, Angela; Dingli, David; Fonder, Amie L; Hayman, Suzanne R; Hobbs, Miriam A; Gonsalves, Wilson I; Hwa, Yi Lisa; Kapoor, Prashant; Leung, Nelson; Go, Ronald S; Lin, Yi; Kourelis, Taxiarchis V; Warsame, Rahma; Lust, John A; Russell, Stephen J; Zeldenrust, Steven R; Kyle, Robert A; Kumar, Shaji K

2018-06-12

In 2014, the International Myeloma Working Group reclassified patients with smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) and bone marrow-plasma cell percentage (BMPC%) ≥ 60%, or serum free light chain ratio (FLCr) ≥ 100 or >1 focal lesion on magnetic resonance imaging as multiple myeloma (MM). Predictors of progression in patients currently classified as SMM are not known. We identified 421 patients with SMM, diagnosed between 2003 and 2015. The median time to progression (TTP) was 57 months (CI, 45-72). BMPC% > 20% [hazard ratio (HR): 2.28 (CI, 1.63-3.20); p < 0.0001]; M-protein > 2g/dL [HR: 1.56 (CI, 1.11-2.20); p = 0.01], and FLCr > 20 [HR: 2.13 (CI, 1.55-2.93); p < 0.0001] independently predicted shorter TTP in multivariate analysis. Age and immunoparesis were not significant. We stratified patients into three groups: low risk (none of the three risk factors; n = 143); intermediate risk (one of the three risk factors; n = 121); and high risk (≥2 of the three risk factors; n = 153). The median TTP for low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups were 110, 68, and 29 months, respectively (p < 0.0001). BMPC% > 20%, M-protein > 2 g/dL, and FLCr > 20 at diagnosis can be used to risk stratify patients with SMM. Patients with high-risk SMM need close follow-up and are candidates for clinical trials aiming to prevent progression.

Role of socio-economic and reproductive factors in the risk of multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Magyari, M

2015-01-01

The incidence of multiple sclerosis is increasing in Danish women. Their risk of developing multiple sclerosis has more than doubled in 25 years while it has remained virtually unchanged for men. The explanation for these epidemiological changes should be sought in the environment as they are too rapid to be explained by gene alterations. We investigated the effect of numerous biological social physical and chemical environmental exposures in different periods of life. These data were available from population-based registries and were used in a case-control approach. This study database included all multiple sclerosis cases (n = 1403) from the Danish MS Registry with clinical onset between 2000 and 2004 as well as 35,045 controls drawn by random from the Danish Civil Registration System and matched by sex year of birth and residential municipality at the reference year. Having newborn children reduced the risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) in women but not in men. Childbirths reduced the risk of MS by about 46% during the following 5 years. Even pregnancies terminated early had a protective effect on the risk of developing MS suggesting a temporary immunosuppression during pregnancy. Our data on social behaviour regarding educational level income and relationship stability did not indicate reverse causality. A greater likelihood to be exposed to common infections did not show any effect on the risk of MS neither in puberty nor in adulthood. Socio-economic status and lifestyle expressed in educational level and sanitary conditions in youth were not associated with the risk of MS. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Multiple Risks, Emotion Regulation Skill, and Cortisol in Low-Income African American Youth: A Prospective Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kliewer, Wendy; Reid-Quinones, Kathryn; Shields, Brian J.; Foutz, Lauren

2009-01-01

Associations between multiple risks, emotion regulation skill, and basal cortisol levels were examined in a community sample of 69 African American youth (mean age = 11.30 years; 49% male) living in an urban setting. Multiple risks were assessed at Time 1 and consisted of 10 demographic and psychosocial risk factors including parent, child, and…

The impact of attachment and depression symptoms on multiple risk behaviors in post-war adolescents in northern Uganda.

PubMed

Okello, J; Nakimuli-Mpungu, E; Klasen, F; Voss, C; Musisi, S; Broekaert, E; Derluyn, I

2015-07-15

We have previously shown that depression symptoms are associated with multiple risk behaviors and that parental attachments are protective against depression symptoms in post-war adolescents. Accumulating literature indicates that low levels of attachment may sensitize individuals to increased multiple risk behaviors when depression symptoms exist. This investigation examined the interactive effects of attachment and depression symptoms on multiple risk behavior. We conducted hierarchical logistic regression analyses to examine the impact of attachment and depression symptoms on multiple risk behavior in our post-war sample of 551 adolescents in Gulu district. Analyses revealed interactive effects for only maternal attachment-by-depression interaction. Interestingly, high levels of maternal attachment exacerbated the relationship between depression symptoms and multiple risk behaviors while low levels of maternal attachment attenuated this relationship. It is possible that this analysis could be biased by a common underlying factor that influences self-reporting and therefore is correlated with each of self-reported attachment security, depressive symptoms, and multiple risk behaviors. These findings suggest that maternal attachment serves as a protective factor at low levels while serving as an additional risk factor at high levels. Findings support and expand current knowledge about the roles that attachment and depression symptoms play in the development of multiple risk behaviors and suggest a more complex etiology for post-war adolescents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Normative beliefs and sexual risk in China.

PubMed

Li, Li; Ding, Ying Ying; Wu, Zunyou; Rotheram-Borus, Mary Jane; Guo, Sam

2011-08-01

We examined normative beliefs about multiple sexual partners and social status in China and their association with risky sexual behaviors and sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Self-reported and biological markers of sexual risk were examined among 3,716 market vendors from a city in eastern China. Men who were older or with less education believed having multiple sexual partners was linked to higher social status. Adjusting for demographic characteristics, normative beliefs were significantly associated with having multiple sexual partners, while having multiple sexual partners was significantly associated with STIs. Normative beliefs regarding sexual behaviors may play an important role in individual risk behaviors. Future HIV/STI interventions must address community beliefs about the positive meaning of sexual risks, particularly among men with traditional beliefs about gender roles.

Cumulative Impact of HIV and Multiple Concurrent Human Papillomavirus Infections on the Risk of Cervical Dysplasia

PubMed Central

Adler, David H.; Wallace, Melissa; Bennie, Thola; Abar, Beau; Meiring, Tracy L.; Williamson, Anna-Lise; Bekker, Linda-Gail

2016-01-01

Infection with HIV is known to increase the risk of cervical cancer. In addition, evidence suggests that concurrent infection with multiple human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes increases the risk of cervical dysplasia more than infection with a single HPV genotype. However, the impact of the combination of HIV coinfection and presence of multiple concurrent HPV infections on the risk of cervical dysplasia is uncertain. We compared the results of HPV testing and Pap smears between HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected young women to assess the cumulative impact of these two conditions. We found that both HIV and the presence of multiple concurrent HPV infections are associated with increased risk of associated Pap smear abnormality and that the impact of these two risk factors may be additive. PMID:26997954

Interventions to Address Medical Conditions and Health-Risk Behaviors Among Persons With Serious Mental Illness: A Comprehensive Review

PubMed Central

McGinty, Emma E.; Baller, Julia; Azrin, Susan T.; Juliano-Bult, Denise; Daumit, Gail L.

2016-01-01

People with serious mental illness (SMI) have mortality rates 2 to 3 times higher than the overall US population, largely due to cardiovascular disease. The prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors such as obesity and diabetes mellitus and other conditions, such as HIV/AIDS, is heightened in this group. Based on the recommendations of a National Institute of Mental Health stakeholder meeting, we conducted a comprehensive review examining the strength of the evidence surrounding interventions to address major medical conditions and health-risk behaviors among persons with SMI. Peer-reviewed studies were identified using 4 major research databases. Randomized controlled trials and observational studies testing interventions to address medical conditions and risk behaviors among persons with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder between January 2000 and June 2014 were included. Information was abstracted from each study by 2 trained reviewers, who also rated study quality using a standard tool. Following individual study review, the quality of the evidence (high, medium, low) and the effectiveness of various interventions were synthesized. 108 studies were included. The majority of studies examined interventions to address overweight/obesity (n = 80). The strength of the evidence was high for 4 interventions: metformin and behavioral interventions had beneficial effects on weight loss; and bupropion and varenicline reduced tobacco smoking. The strength of the evidence was low for most other interventions reviewed. Future studies should test long-term interventions to cardiovascular risk factors and health-risk behaviors. In addition, future research should study implementation strategies to effectively translate efficacious interventions into real-world settings. PMID:26221050

Multiple factors explain injury risk in adolescent elite athletes: Applying a biopsychosocial perspective.

PubMed

von Rosen, P; Frohm, A; Kottorp, A; Fridén, C; Heijne, A

2017-12-01

Many risk factors for injury are presented in the literature, few of those are however consistent and the majority is associated with adult and not adolescent elite athletes. The aim was to identify risk factors for injury in adolescent elite athletes, by applying a biopsychosocial approach. A total of 496 adolescent elite athletes (age range 15-19), participating in 16 different sports, were monitored repeatedly over 52 weeks using a valid questionnaire about injuries, training exposure, sleep, stress, nutrition, and competence-based self-esteem. Univariate and multiple Cox regression analyses were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) for risk factors for first reported injury. The main finding was that an increase in training load, training intensity, and at the same time decreasing the sleep volume resulted in a higher risk for injury compared to no change in these variables (HR 2.25, 95% CI, 1.46-3.45, P<.01), which was the strongest risk factor identified. In addition, an increase by one score of competence-based self-esteem increased the hazard for injury with 1.02 (HR 95% CI, 1.00-1.04, P=.01). Based on the multiple Cox regression analysis, an athlete having the identified risk factors (Risk Index, competence-based self-esteem), with an average competence-based self-esteem score, had more than a threefold increased risk for injury (HR 3.35), compared to an athlete with a low competence-based self-esteem and no change in sleep or training volume. Our findings confirm injury occurrence as a result of multiple risk factors interacting in complex ways. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An ImmunoChip study of multiple sclerosis risk in African Americans

PubMed Central

Isobe, Noriko; Madireddy, Lohith; Khankhanian, Pouya; Matsushita, Takuya; Caillier, Stacy J.; Moré, Jayaji M.; Gourraud, Pierre-Antoine; McCauley, Jacob L.; Beecham, Ashley H.; Piccio, Laura; Herbert, Joseph; Khan, Omar; Cohen, Jeffrey; Stone, Lael; Santaniello, Adam; Cree, Bruce A. C.; Onengut-Gumuscu, Suna; Rich, Stephen S.; Hauser, Stephen L.; Sawcer, Stephen

2015-01-01

The aims of this study were: (i) to determine to what degree multiple sclerosis-associated loci discovered in European populations also influence susceptibility in African Americans; (ii) to assess the extent to which the unique linkage disequilibrium patterns in African Americans can contribute to localizing the functionally relevant regions or genes; and (iii) to search for novel African American multiple sclerosis-associated loci. Using the ImmunoChip custom array we genotyped 803 African American cases with multiple sclerosis and 1516 African American control subjects at 130 135 autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms. We conducted association analysis with rigorous adjustments for population stratification and admixture. Of the 110 non-major histocompatibility complex multiple sclerosis-associated variants identified in Europeans, 96 passed stringent quality control in our African American data set and of these, >70% (69) showed over-representation of the same allele amongst cases, including 21 with nominally significant evidence for association (one-tailed test P < 0.05). At a further eight loci we found nominally significant association with an alternate correlated risk-tagging single nucleotide polymorphism from the same region. Outside the regions known to be associated in Europeans, we found seven potentially associated novel candidate multiple sclerosis variants (P < 10−4), one of which (rs2702180) also showed nominally significant evidence for association (one-tailed test P = 0.034) in an independent second cohort of 620 African American cases and 1565 control subjects. However, none of these novel associations reached genome-wide significance (combined P = 6.3 × 10−5). Our data demonstrate substantial overlap between African American and European multiple sclerosis variants, indicating common genetic contributions to multiple sclerosis risk. PMID:25818868

First Evaluation of a Contingency Management Intervention Addressing Adolescent Substance Use and Sexual Risk Behaviors: Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents.

PubMed

Letourneau, Elizabeth J; McCart, Michael R; Sheidow, Ashli J; Mauro, Pia M

2017-01-01

There is a need for interventions that comprehensively address youth substance use disorders (SUD) and sexual risk behaviors. Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents (RRTA) adapts a validated family-focused intervention for youth SUD to include sexual risk reduction components in a single intervention. In this first evaluation of RRTA, drug court involved youth were randomly assigned to RRTA (N=45) or usual services (US; N=60) and followed through 12-months post-baseline. RRTA included weekly cognitive behavior therapy and behavior management training and contingency-contracting with a point earning system managed by caregivers targeting drug use and sexual risk antecedents. Longitudinal models estimated within-group change and between-group differences through 6- and 12-month follow-up on outcomes for substance use, sexual risk behaviors, and protective HIV behaviors. Robust effects of the intervention were not detected under conditions of the study that included potent background interventions by the juvenile drug court. Considerations about future development and testing of sexual risk reduction therapy for youth are discussed, including the potential role of contingency management in future interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World – the Roskilde Recommendations

EPA Science Inventory

Roskilde University hosted a November 2015 workshop on “Environmental Risk – Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World”. Thirty attendees from 9 countries developed consensus recommendations regarding: implementation of a common currency (ecosyst...

Depressive symptoms in adolescence: the association with multiple health risk behaviors.

PubMed

Katon, Wayne; Richardson, Laura; Russo, Joan; McCarty, Carolyn A; Rockhill, Carol; McCauley, Elizabeth; Richards, Julie; Grossman, David C

2010-01-01

Although multiple studies of adolescents have examined the association of depression with individual health risk behaviors such as obesity or smoking, this is one of the few studies that examined the association between depression and multiple risk behaviors. A brief mail questionnaire, which screened for age, gender, weight, height, sedentary behaviors, physical activity, perception of general health, functional impairment and depressive symptoms, was completed by a sample of 2291 youth (60.7% response rate) aged 13-17 enrolled in a health care plan. A subset of youth who screened positive on the two-item depression screen and a random sample of those screening negative were approached to participate in a telephone interview with more in-depth information obtained on smoking and at-risk behaviors associated with drug and alcohol use. Youth screening positive for high levels of depressive symptoms compared to those with few or no depressive symptoms were significantly more likely to meet criteria for obesity, had a poorer perception of health, spent more time on the computer, got along less well with parents and friends, had more problems completing school work and were more likely to have experimented with smoking and a wide array of behaviors associated with drug and alcohol use. Because many adverse health behaviors that develop in adolescence continue into adulthood, the association of depressive symptoms with multiple risk behaviors and poor functioning suggest that early interventions are needed at an individual, school, community and primary care level. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multiple health behaviors in an ethnically diverse sample of adults with risk factors for cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Heinrich, Katie M; Maddock, Jay

2011-01-01

eating breakfast (OR = 1.33) and not performing vigorous physical activity (OR = 1.63), but less consumption of fast food (OR = 0.64) were significant predictors for obesity. Specifically tailored and culturally sensitive interventions that address multiple health behaviors may be necessary for these high-risk populations.

Two Wrongs Make a Right: Addressing Underreporting in Binary Data from Multiple Sources.

PubMed

Cook, Scott J; Blas, Betsabe; Carroll, Raymond J; Sinha, Samiran

2017-04-01

Media-based event data-i.e., data comprised from reporting by media outlets-are widely used in political science research. However, events of interest (e.g., strikes, protests, conflict) are often underreported by these primary and secondary sources, producing incomplete data that risks inconsistency and bias in subsequent analysis. While general strategies exist to help ameliorate this bias, these methods do not make full use of the information often available to researchers. Specifically, much of the event data used in the social sciences is drawn from multiple, overlapping news sources (e.g., Agence France-Presse, Reuters). Therefore, we propose a novel maximum likelihood estimator that corrects for misclassification in data arising from multiple sources. In the most general formulation of our estimator, researchers can specify separate sets of predictors for the true-event model and each of the misclassification models characterizing whether a source fails to report on an event. As such, researchers are able to accurately test theories on both the causes of and reporting on an event of interest. Simulations evidence that our technique regularly out performs current strategies that either neglect misclassification, the unique features of the data-generating process, or both. We also illustrate the utility of this method with a model of repression using the Social Conflict in Africa Database.

Occupation, exposure to chemicals, sensitizing agents, and risk of multiple myeloma in Sweden.

PubMed

Lope, Virginia; Pérez-Gómez, Beatriz; Aragonés, Nuria; López-Abente, Gonzalo; Gustavsson, Per; Plato, Nils; Zock, Jan-Paul; Pollán, Marina

2008-11-01

This study sought to identify occupations with high incidence of multiple myeloma and to investigate possible excess risk associated with occupational exposure to chemicals and sensitizing agents in Sweden. A historical cohort of 2,992,166 workers was followed up (1971--1989) through record linkage with the National Cancer and Death Registries. For each job category, age and period standardized incidence ratios and age and period adjusted relative risks of multiple myeloma were calculated using Poisson models. Exposure to chemicals and to sensitizing agents was also assessed using two job-exposure matrices. Men and women were analyzed separately. During follow-up, 3,127 and 1,282 myelomas were diagnosed in men and women, respectively. In men, excess risk was detected among working proprietors, agricultural, horticultural and forestry enterprisers, bakers and pastry cooks, dental technicians, stone cutters/carvers, and prison/reformatory officials. In women, this excess was observed among attendants in psychiatric care, metal workers, bakers and pastry cooks, and paper/paperboard product workers. Workers, particularly bakers and pastry cooks, exposed to high molecular weight sensitizing agents registered an excess risk of over 40% across the sexes. Occasional, although intense, exposure to pesticides was also associated with risk of myeloma in our cohort. Our study supports a possible etiologic role for farming and use of pesticides in myeloma risk. The high incidence found in both female and male bakers and pastry cooks has not been described previously. Further research is required to assess the influence of high molecular weight sensitizing agents on risk of multiple myeloma.

Challenging Assumptions: What Do We Need to Address in Our Disaster Risk Reduction Efforts?

PubMed

Codreanu, Tudor A; Ngo, Hanh; Robertson, Andrew; Celenza, Antonio

2017-04-01

Introduction Specific knowledge and skills are required, especially in the first 72 hours post-disaster, to bridge the time gap until essential services are restored and Emergency Medical Services (EMS) can focus on individuals' needs. This study explores disaster knowledge and preparedness in the first 72 hours as a function of the individual's engagement in discussions about disasters, and several other factors (both at personal and community/country level), as well as the entities/organizations perceived by the individual as being responsible for disaster risk reduction (DRR) education. A prospective, cross-sectional survey of 3,829 final-year high-school students was conducted in nine countries with different levels of disaster risk and economic development. Regression analyses examined the relationship between a 72-hour disaster preparedness composite outcome (ability to make water safe for drinking, knowledge of water potability, home evacuation skill, and improvising a safe room) and a series of independent predictors. Respondents from countries with lower economic development were significantly better prepared for the first 72 hours post-disaster than those from developed countries (OR=767.45; CI=13.75-48,822.94; P=.001). While several independent predictors showed a significant main effect, combined disaster risk education (DRE) efforts, as a partnership between school and local government, had the best predictive value (OR=3.52; CI=1.48-8.41; P=.005). Disaster preparedness in final-year high-school students is significantly better in developing countries. Further improvement requires a convergent effort in aligning the most effective educational policies and actions to best address the individual's and the community needs. Codreanu TA , Ngo H , Robertson A , Celenza A . Challenging assumptions: what do we need to address in our disaster risk reduction efforts? Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(2):134-147.

Gait initiation time is associated with the risk of multiple falls-A population-based study.

PubMed

Callisaya, Michele L; Blizzard, Leigh; Martin, Kara; Srikanth, Velandai K

2016-09-01

In a population-based study of older people to examine whether 1) overall gait initiation (GI) time or its components are associated with falls and 2) GI under dual-task is a stronger predictor of falls risk than under single-task. Participants aged 60-85 years were randomly selected from the electoral roll. GI was obtained with a force platform under both single and dual-task conditions. Falls were ascertained prospectively over a 12-month period. Log multinomial regression was used to examine the association between GI time (total and its components) and risk of single and multiple falls. Age, sex and physiological and cognitive falls risk factors were considered as confounders. The mean age of the sample (n=124) was 71.0 (SD 6.8) years and 58.9% (n=73) were male. Over 12 months 21.8% (n=27) of participants reported a single fall and 16.1% (n=20) reported multiple falls. Slower overall GI time under both single (RR all per 100ms 1.28, 95%CI 1.03, 1.58) and dual-task (RR 1.14, 95%CI 1.02, 1.27) was associated with increased risk of multiple, but not single falls (p<0.05). Multiple falls were also associated with slower time to first lateral movement under single-task (RR 1.90 95%CI 0.59, 1.51) and swing time under dual-task condition (RR 1.44 95%CI 1.08, 1.94). Slower GI time is associated with the risk of multiple falls independent of other risk factors, suggesting it could be used as part of a comprehensive falls assessment. Time to the first lateral movement under single-task may be the best measures of this risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An ImmunoChip study of multiple sclerosis risk in African Americans.

PubMed

Isobe, Noriko; Madireddy, Lohith; Khankhanian, Pouya; Matsushita, Takuya; Caillier, Stacy J; Moré, Jayaji M; Gourraud, Pierre-Antoine; McCauley, Jacob L; Beecham, Ashley H; Piccio, Laura; Herbert, Joseph; Khan, Omar; Cohen, Jeffrey; Stone, Lael; Santaniello, Adam; Cree, Bruce A C; Onengut-Gumuscu, Suna; Rich, Stephen S; Hauser, Stephen L; Sawcer, Stephen; Oksenberg, Jorge R

2015-06-01

The aims of this study were: (i) to determine to what degree multiple sclerosis-associated loci discovered in European populations also influence susceptibility in African Americans; (ii) to assess the extent to which the unique linkage disequilibrium patterns in African Americans can contribute to localizing the functionally relevant regions or genes; and (iii) to search for novel African American multiple sclerosis-associated loci. Using the ImmunoChip custom array we genotyped 803 African American cases with multiple sclerosis and 1516 African American control subjects at 130 135 autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms. We conducted association analysis with rigorous adjustments for population stratification and admixture. Of the 110 non-major histocompatibility complex multiple sclerosis-associated variants identified in Europeans, 96 passed stringent quality control in our African American data set and of these, >70% (69) showed over-representation of the same allele amongst cases, including 21 with nominally significant evidence for association (one-tailed test P < 0.05). At a further eight loci we found nominally significant association with an alternate correlated risk-tagging single nucleotide polymorphism from the same region. Outside the regions known to be associated in Europeans, we found seven potentially associated novel candidate multiple sclerosis variants (P < 10(-4)), one of which (rs2702180) also showed nominally significant evidence for association (one-tailed test P = 0.034) in an independent second cohort of 620 African American cases and 1565 control subjects. However, none of these novel associations reached genome-wide significance (combined P = 6.3 × 10(-5)). Our data demonstrate substantial overlap between African American and European multiple sclerosis variants, indicating common genetic contributions to multiple sclerosis risk. © The Author (2015). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain. All

Focusing Events and Constrains on Policy Addressing Long-Term Climate Change Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donovan, K.

2014-12-01

When policy makers are aware of immediate and long-term risks to communities, what do they do to plan for and mitigate the effects of climate change? This paper addresses that question in two ways. First, as an organizing framework it presents an overview of the empirical evidence on focusing events. Focusing events are defined as sudden, rare events that reveal harm or the potential for future harm that the general public and policy makers become aware of simultaneously. These large-scale events are typically natural and disasters, crisis, or technological accidents. This paper considers the empirical evidence of the relationship between focusing events, the harm revealed by the event and policy change aimed at reducing future risk of harm. Second, this paper reviews the case of flood mitigation policy in the United States from 1968 to 2008. It considers the ways in which policy makers have and have not integrated future flood risks into mitigation policy and planning, particularly after large-scale floods. It analyzes the political, intergovernmental, demographic and geographic factors that have promoted and constrained long-term flood mitigation policy. This paper concludes with a discussion of the meaning and implications of potential focusing events and constrains on policy for long-term climate change concerns.

Multiple Changes to Reusable Solid Rocket Motors, Identifying Hidden Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenhalgh, Phillip O.; McCann, Bradley Q.

2003-01-01

The Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) baseline is subject to various changes. Changes are necessary due to safety and quality improvements, environmental considerations, vendor changes, obsolescence issues, etc. The RSRM program has a goal to test changes on full-scale static test motors prior to flight due to the unique RSRM operating environment. Each static test motor incorporates several significant changes and numerous minor changes. Flight motors often implement multiple changes simultaneously. While each change is individually verified and assessed, the potential for changes to interact constitutes additional hidden risk. Mitigating this risk depends upon identification of potential interactions. Therefore, the ATK Thiokol Propulsion System Safety organization initiated the use of a risk interaction matrix to identify potential interactions that compound risk. Identifying risk interactions supports flight and test motor decisions. Uncovering hidden risks of a full-scale static test motor gives a broader perspective of the changes being tested. This broader perspective compels the program to focus on solutions for implementing RSRM changes with minimal/mitigated risk. This paper discusses use of a change risk interaction matrix to identify test challenges and uncover hidden risks to the RSRM program.

Addressing Emerging Risks: Scientific and Regulatory Challenges Associated with Environmentally Persistent Free Radicals.

PubMed

Dugas, Tammy R; Lomnicki, Slawomir; Cormier, Stephania A; Dellinger, Barry; Reams, Margaret

2016-06-08

Airborne fine and ultrafine particulate matter (PM) are often generated through widely-used thermal processes such as the combustion of fuels or the thermal decomposition of waste. Residents near Superfund sites are exposed to PM through the inhalation of windblown dust, ingestion of soil and sediments, and inhalation of emissions from the on-site thermal treatment of contaminated soils. Epidemiological evidence supports a link between exposure to airborne PM and an increased risk of cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases. It is well-known that during combustion processes, incomplete combustion can lead to the production of organic pollutants that can adsorb to the surface of PM. Recent studies have demonstrated that their interaction with metal centers can lead to the generation of a surface stabilized metal-radical complex capable of redox cycling to produce ROS. Moreover, these free radicals can persist in the environment, hence their designation as Environmentally Persistent Free Radicals (EPFR). EPFR has been demonstrated in both ambient air PM2.5 (diameter < 2.5 µm) and in PM from a variety of combustion sources. Thus, low-temperature, thermal treatment of soils can potentially increase the concentration of EPFR in areas in and around Superfund sites. In this review, we will outline the evidence to date supporting EPFR formation and its environmental significance. Furthermore, we will address the lack of methodologies for specifically addressing its risk assessment and challenges associated with regulating this new, emerging contaminant.

Addressing Emerging Risks: Scientific and Regulatory Challenges Associated with Environmentally Persistent Free Radicals

PubMed Central

Dugas, Tammy R.; Lomnicki, Slawomir; Cormier, Stephania A.; Dellinger, Barry; Reams, Margaret

2016-01-01

Airborne fine and ultrafine particulate matter (PM) are often generated through widely-used thermal processes such as the combustion of fuels or the thermal decomposition of waste. Residents near Superfund sites are exposed to PM through the inhalation of windblown dust, ingestion of soil and sediments, and inhalation of emissions from the on-site thermal treatment of contaminated soils. Epidemiological evidence supports a link between exposure to airborne PM and an increased risk of cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases. It is well-known that during combustion processes, incomplete combustion can lead to the production of organic pollutants that can adsorb to the surface of PM. Recent studies have demonstrated that their interaction with metal centers can lead to the generation of a surface stabilized metal-radical complex capable of redox cycling to produce ROS. Moreover, these free radicals can persist in the environment, hence their designation as Environmentally Persistent Free Radicals (EPFR). EPFR has been demonstrated in both ambient air PM2.5 (diameter < 2.5 µm) and in PM from a variety of combustion sources. Thus, low-temperature, thermal treatment of soils can potentially increase the concentration of EPFR in areas in and around Superfund sites. In this review, we will outline the evidence to date supporting EPFR formation and its environmental significance. Furthermore, we will address the lack of methodologies for specifically addressing its risk assessment and challenges associated with regulating this new, emerging contaminant. PMID:27338429

Name-Based Address Mapping for Virtual Private Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surányi, Péter; Shinjo, Yasushi; Kato, Kazuhiko

IPv4 private addresses are commonly used in local area networks (LANs). With the increasing popularity of virtual private networks (VPNs), it has become common that a user connects to multiple LANs at the same time. However, private address ranges for LANs frequently overlap. In such cases, existing systems do not allow the user to access the resources on all LANs at the same time. In this paper, we propose name-based address mapping for VPNs, a novel method that allows connecting to hosts through multiple VPNs at the same time, even when the address ranges of the VPNs overlap. In name-based address mapping, rather than using the IP addresses used on the LANs (the real addresses), we assign a unique virtual address to each remote host based on its domain name. The local host uses the virtual addresses to communicate with remote hosts. We have implemented name-based address mapping for layer 3 OpenVPN connections on Linux and measured its performance. The communication overhead of our system is less than 1.5% for throughput and less than 0.2ms for each name resolution.

Microplastics: addressing ecological risk through lessons learned.

PubMed

Syberg, Kristian; Khan, Farhan R; Selck, Henriette; Palmqvist, Annemette; Banta, Gary T; Daley, Jennifer; Sano, Larissa; Duhaime, Melissa B

2015-05-01

Plastic litter is an environmental problem of great concern. Despite the magnitude of the plastic pollution in our water bodies, only limited scientific understanding is available about the risk to the environment, particularly for microplastics. The apparent magnitude of the problem calls for quickly developing sound scientific guidance on the ecological risks of microplastics. The authors suggest that future research into microplastics risks should be guided by lessons learned from the more advanced and better understood areas of (eco) toxicology of engineered nanoparticles and mixture toxicity. Relevant examples of advances in these two fields are provided to help accelerate the scientific learning curve within the relatively unexplored area of microplastics risk assessment. Finally, the authors advocate an expansion of the "vector effect" hypothesis with regard to microplastics risk to help focus research of microplastics environmental risk at different levels of biological and environmental organization. © 2015 SETAC.

Treatment of multiple-risk patients: using combination therapy to treat beyond LDL lowering.

PubMed

Weintraub, Howard S

2005-08-01

During the past 25 years, the role of traditional "risk factors" in the genesis of atherosclerotic vascular disease has been convincingly validated. The impact of elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, hypertension, type II diabetes, and metabolic syndrome are now well accepted. However, until recently, there was guilt by association without a clear understanding of the manner in which the crime was committed. It is now acknowledged that the presence of multiple risk factors can increase the likelihood of an ischemic event. This has become a great concern, given the very high prevalence of patients who fall into this category. In light of this information, the mandate for appropriate guideline-driven therapy has become even stronger, and we must consider the use of multiple medications to effectively neutralize this risk.

Comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials using clinical risk-benefit analysis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background To demonstrate the use of risk-benefit analysis for comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials, we applied this approach to the evaluation of five anticoagulants to prevent thrombosis in patients undergoing orthopedic surgery. Methods Using a cost-effectiveness approach from a clinical perspective (i.e. risk benefit analysis) we compared thromboprophylaxis with warfarin, low molecular weight heparin, unfractionated heparin, fondaparinux or ximelagatran in patients undergoing major orthopedic surgery, with sub-analyses according to surgery type. Proportions and variances of events defining risk (major bleeding) and benefit (thrombosis averted) were obtained through a meta-analysis and used to define beta distributions. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted and used to calculate incremental risks, benefits, and risk-benefit ratios. Finally, net clinical benefit was calculated for all replications across a range of risk-benefit acceptability thresholds, with a reference range obtained by estimating the case fatality rate - ratio of thrombosis to bleeding. Results The analysis showed that compared to placebo ximelagatran was superior to other options but final results were influenced by type of surgery, since ximelagatran was superior in total knee replacement but not in total hip replacement. Conclusions Using simulation and economic techniques we demonstrate a method that allows comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials with multiple arms by determining the option with the best risk-benefit profile. It can be helpful in clinical decision making since it incorporates risk, benefit, and personal risk acceptance. PMID:22233221

Is food allergen analysis flawed? Health and supply chain risks and a proposed framework to address urgent analytical needs.

PubMed

Walker, M J; Burns, D T; Elliott, C T; Gowland, M H; Mills, E N Clare

2016-01-07

Food allergy is an increasing problem for those affected, their families or carers, the food industry and for regulators. The food supply chain is highly vulnerable to fraud involving food allergens, risking fatalities and severe reputational damage to the food industry. Many facets are being pursued to ameliorate the difficulties including better food labelling and the concept of thresholds of elicitation of allergy symptoms as risk management tools. These efforts depend to a high degree on the ability reliably to detect and quantify food allergens; yet all current analytical approaches exhibit severe deficiencies that jeopardise accurate results being produced particularly in terms of the risks of false positive and false negative reporting. If we fail to realise the promise of current risk assessment and risk management of food allergens through lack of the ability to measure food allergens reproducibly and with traceability to an international unit of measurement, the analytical community will have failed a significant societal challenge. Three distinct but interrelated areas of analytical work are urgently needed to address the substantial gaps identified: (a) a coordinated international programme for the production of properly characterised clinically relevant reference materials and calibrants for food allergen analysis; (b) an international programme to widen the scope of proteomics and genomics bioinformatics for the genera containing the major allergens to address problems in ELISA, MS and DNA methods; (c) the initiation of a coordinated international programme leading to reference methods for allergen proteins that provide results traceable to the SI. This article describes in more detail food allergy, the risks of inapplicable or flawed allergen analyses with examples and a proposed framework, including clinically relevant incurred allergen concentrations, to address the currently unmet and urgently required analytical requirements. Support for the

Brief Alcohol Interventions and Multiple Risk Factors in Primary Care

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Funderburk, Jennifer S.; Maisto, Stephen A.; Sugarman, Dawn E.

2007-01-01

Early identification and intervention of harmful/hazardous drinking in primary care are U.S. healthcare priorities. Traditionally, research has focused on designing interventions for patients in primary care who report hazardous/harmful alcohol use, even though it is likely for a patient to be at risk for multiple problems. This article has three…

Molecular profiling--a tool for addressing emerging gaps in the comparative risk assessment of GMOs.

PubMed

Heinemann, Jack A; Kurenbach, Brigitta; Quist, David

2011-10-01

Assessing the risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) is required by both international agreement and domestic legislation. Many view the use of the "omics" tools for profiling classes of molecules as useful in risk assessment, but no consensus has formed on the need or value of these techniques for assessing the risks of all GMOs. In this and many other cases, experts support case-by-case use of molecular profiling techniques for risk assessment. We review the latest research on the applicability and usefulness of molecular profiling techniques for GMO risk assessment. As more and more kinds of GMOs and traits are developed, broader use of molecular profiling in a risk assessment may be required to supplement the comparative approach to risk assessment. The literature-based discussions on the use of profiling appear to have settled on two findings: 1. profiling techniques are reliable and relevant, at least no less so than other techniques used in risk assessment; and 2. although not required routinely, regulators should be aware of when they are needed. The dismissal of routine molecular profiling may be confusing to regulators who then lack guidance on when molecular profiling might be worthwhile. Molecular profiling is an important way to increase confidence in risk assessments if the profiles are properly designed to address relevant risks and are applied at the correct stage of the assessment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A hierarchical-multiobjective framework for risk management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haimes, Yacov Y.; Li, Duan

1991-01-01

A broad hierarchical-multiobjective framework is established and utilized to methodologically address the management of risk. United into the framework are the hierarchical character of decision-making, the multiple decision-makers at separate levels within the hierarchy, the multiobjective character of large-scale systems, the quantitative/empirical aspects, and the qualitative/normative/judgmental aspects. The methodological components essentially consist of hierarchical-multiobjective coordination, risk of extreme events, and impact analysis. Examples of applications of the framework are presented. It is concluded that complex and interrelated forces require an analysis of trade-offs between engineering analysis and societal preferences, as in the hierarchical-multiobjective framework, to successfully address inherent risk.

Real-Time Optimal Flood Control Decision Making and Risk Propagation Under Multiple Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Feilin; Zhong, Ping-An; Sun, Yimeng; Yeh, William W.-G.

2017-12-01

Multiple uncertainties exist in the optimal flood control decision-making process, presenting risks involving flood control decisions. This paper defines the main steps in optimal flood control decision making that constitute the Forecast-Optimization-Decision Making (FODM) chain. We propose a framework for supporting optimal flood control decision making under multiple uncertainties and evaluate risk propagation along the FODM chain from a holistic perspective. To deal with uncertainties, we employ stochastic models at each link of the FODM chain. We generate synthetic ensemble flood forecasts via the martingale model of forecast evolution. We then establish a multiobjective stochastic programming with recourse model for optimal flood control operation. The Pareto front under uncertainty is derived via the constraint method coupled with a two-step process. We propose a novel SMAA-TOPSIS model for stochastic multicriteria decision making. Then we propose the risk assessment model, the risk of decision-making errors and rank uncertainty degree to quantify the risk propagation process along the FODM chain. We conduct numerical experiments to investigate the effects of flood forecast uncertainty on optimal flood control decision making and risk propagation. We apply the proposed methodology to a flood control system in the Daduhe River basin in China. The results indicate that the proposed method can provide valuable risk information in each link of the FODM chain and enable risk-informed decisions with higher reliability.

Ready, set, go: a cross-sectional survey to understand priorities and preferences for multiple health behaviour change in a highly disadvantaged group.

PubMed

Noble, Natasha; Paul, Christine; Sanson-Fisher, Robert; Turon, Heidi; Turner, Nicole; Conigrave, Katherine

2016-09-13

Socially disadvantaged groups, such as Aboriginal Australians, tend to have a high prevalence of multiple lifestyle risk factors, increasing the risk of disease and underscoring the need for services to address multiple health behaviours. The aims of this study were to explore, among a socially disadvantaged group of people attending an Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Service (ACCHS): a) readiness to change health behaviours; b) acceptability of addressing multiple risk factors sequentially or simultaneously; and c) preferred types of support services. People attending an ACCHS in regional New South Wales (NSW) completed a touchscreen survey while waiting for their appointment. The survey assessed participant health risk status, which health risks they would like to change, whether they preferred multiple health changes to be made together or separately, and the types of support they would use. Of the 211 participants who completed the survey, 94 % reported multiple (two or more) health risks. There was a high willingness to change, with 69 % of current smokers wanting to cut down or quit, 51 % of overweight or obese participants wanting to lose weight and 44 % of those using drugs in the last 12 months wanting to stop or cut down. Of participants who wanted to make more than one health change, over half would be willing to make simultaneous or over-lapping health changes. The most popular types of support were help from a doctor or Health Worker and seeing a specialist, with less than a quarter of participants preferring telephone or electronic (internet or smart phone) forms of assistance. The importance of involving family members was also identified. Strategies addressing multiple health behaviour changes are likely to be acceptable for people attending an ACCHS, but may need to allow flexibility in the choice of initial target behaviour, timing of changes, and the format of support provided.

Fall risk and incidence reduction in high risk individuals with multiple sclerosis: a pilot randomized control trial.

PubMed

Sosnoff, Jacob J; Moon, Yaejin; Wajda, Douglas A; Finlayson, Marcia L; McAuley, Edward; Peterson, Elizabeth W; Morrison, Steve; Motl, Robert W

2015-10-01

To determine the feasibility of three fall prevention programs delivered over 12 weeks among individuals with multiple sclerosis: (A) a home-based exercise program targeting physiological risk factors; (B) an educational program targeting behavioral risk factors; and (C) a combined exercise-and-education program targeting both factors. Randomized controlled trial. Home-based training with assessments at research laboratory. A total of 103 individuals inquired about the investigation. After screening, 37 individuals with multiple sclerosis who had fallen in the last year and ranged in age from 45-75 years volunteered for the investigation. A total of 34 participants completed postassessment following the 12-week intervention. Participants were randomly assigned into one of four conditions: (1) wait-list control (n = 9); (2) home-based exercise (n = 11); (3) education (n = 9); or (4) a combined exercise and education (n = 8) group. Before and after the 12-week interventions, participants underwent a fall risk assessment as determined by the physiological profile assessment and provided information on their fall prevention behaviors as indexed by the Falls Prevention Strategy Survey. Participants completed falls diaries during the three-months postintervention. A total of 34 participants completed postintervention testing. Procedures and processes were found to be feasible. Overall, fall risk scores were lower in the exercise groups (1.15 SD 1.31) compared with the non-exercise groups (2.04 SD 1.04) following the intervention (p < 0.01). There was no group difference in fall prevention behaviors (p > 0.05). Further examination of home-based exercise/education programs for reducing falls in individuals with multiple sclerosis is warranted. A total of 108 participants would be needed in a larger randomized controlled trial.ClinicalTrials.org #NCT01956227. © The Author(s) 2014.

The need for comprehensive vulnerability approaches to mirror the multiplicity in mountain hazard risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keiler, Margreth; Fuchs, Sven

2014-05-01

The concept of vulnerability is pillared by multiple disciplinary theories underpinning either a technical or a social origin of the concept and resulting in a range of paradigms for vulnerability quantification. By taking a natural scientific approach we argue that a large number of studies have focused either on damage-loss functions for individual mountain hazards or on semi-quantitative indicator-based approaches for multiple hazards (hazard chains). However, efforts to reduce susceptibility to hazards and to create disaster-resilient communities require intersections among these approaches, as well as among theories originating in natural and social sciences, since human activity cannot be seen independently from the environmental setting. Acknowledging different roots of disciplinary paradigms in risk management, issues determining structural, economic, institutional and social vulnerability have to be more comprehensively addressed in the future with respect to mountain hazards in Europe and beyond. It is argued that structural vulnerability as originator results in considerable economic vulnerability, generated by the institutional settings of dealing with natural hazards and shaped by the overall societal framework. If vulnerability and its counterpart, resilience, is analysed and evaluated by using such a comprehensive approach, a better understanding of the vulnerability-influencing parameters could be achieved, taking into account the interdependencies and interactions between the disciplinary foci. As a result, three key issues should be addressed in future research: (1) Vulnerability requires a new perspective on the relationship between society and environment: not as a duality, but more as a mutually constitutive relationship (including methods for assessment). (2) There is a need for concepts of vulnerability that emphasise the dynamics of temporal and spatial scales, particularly with respect to Global Change processes in mountain regions. (3

Analysis of clinical risk factors associated with the prognosis of severe multiple-trauma patients with acute lung injury.

PubMed

Wu, Junsong; Sheng, Lei; Wang, Shenhua; Li, Qiang; Zhang, Mao; Xu, Shaowen; Gan, Jianxin

2012-09-01

Several clinical risk factors have been reported to be associated with the prognosis of acute lung injury (ALI). However, these studies have included a general trauma patient population, without singling out the severely injured multiple-trauma patient population. To identify the potential risk factors that could affect the prognosis of ALI in multiple-trauma patients and investigate the prognostic effects of certain risk factors among different patient subpopulations. In this retrospective cohort study, severely injured multiple-trauma patients with early onset of ALI from several trauma centers were studied. Potential risk factors affecting the prognosis of ALI were examined by univariate and multivariate logistic analyses. There were 609 multiple-trauma patients with ALI admitted to the emergency department and emergency intensive care unit during the study period. The nine risk factors that affected prognosis, as indicated by the unadjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals, were the APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II) score, duration of trauma, age, gastrointestinal hemorrhage, pulmonary contusion, disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC), multiple blood transfusions in 6 h, Injury Severity Score (ISS), and aspiration of gastric contents. Specific risk factors also affected different patient subpopulations in different ways. Patients older than 65 years and with multiple (> 10 units) blood transfusions in the early stage after multiple trauma were found to be independent risk factors associated with deterioration of ALI. The other factors studied, including pulmonary contusion, APACHE II score ≥ 20, ISS ≥ 16, gastrointestinal hemorrhage, and aspiration of gastric contents, may predict the unfavorable prognosis of ALI in the early stage of trauma, with their effects attenuating in the later stage. Duration of trauma ≥ 1 h and the presence of DIC may also indicate unfavorable prognosis during the entire treatment

VULNERABILITY AS A FUNCTION OF INDIVIDUAL AND GROUP RESOURCES IN CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Background: The field of risk assessment has focused on protecting the health of individual people or populations of wildlife from single risks, mostly from chemical exposure. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently began to address multiple risks to communities in the ...

A systematic review of effective interventions for reducing multiple health risk behaviors in adolescence.

PubMed

Hale, Daniel R; Fitzgerald-Yau, Natasha; Viner, Russell Mark

2014-05-01

We systematically searched 9 biomedical and social science databases (1980-2012) for primary and secondary interventions that prevented or reduced 2 or more adolescent health risk behaviors (tobacco use, alcohol use, illicit drug use, risky sexual behavior, aggressive acts). We identified 44 randomized controlled trials of universal or selective interventions and were effective for multiple health risk behaviors. Most were school based, conducted in the United States, and effective for multiple forms of substance use. Effects were small, in line with findings for other universal prevention programs. In some studies, effects for more than 1 health risk behavior only emerged at long-term follow-up. Integrated prevention programs are feasible and effective and may be more efficient than discrete prevention strategies.

A Systematic Review of Effective Interventions for Reducing Multiple Health Risk Behaviors in Adolescence

PubMed Central

Fitzgerald-Yau, Natasha; Viner, Russell Mark

2014-01-01

We systematically searched 9 biomedical and social science databases (1980–2012) for primary and secondary interventions that prevented or reduced 2 or more adolescent health risk behaviors (tobacco use, alcohol use, illicit drug use, risky sexual behavior, aggressive acts). We identified 44 randomized controlled trials of universal or selective interventions and were effective for multiple health risk behaviors. Most were school based, conducted in the United States, and effective for multiple forms of substance use. Effects were small, in line with findings for other universal prevention programs. In some studies, effects for more than 1 health risk behavior only emerged at long-term follow-up. Integrated prevention programs are feasible and effective and may be more efficient than discrete prevention strategies. PMID:24625172

Reducing economic risk in areally anisotropic formations with multiple-lateral horizontal wells

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, J.; Economides, M.J.; Frick, T.P.

1995-12-31

Well orientation is critical to horizontal well performance in areally anisotropic reservoirs. A horizontal well, drilled normal to the direction of maximum permeability, will have higher productivity than one drilled in any other arbitrary direction. Currently, horizontal permeability magnitudes and even indications of direction are rarely measured in the field. Based on well performance modeling and economic evaluation, this study attempts to determine the relative attractiveness of horizontal wells with multiple-laterals. The work exposes the economic risk in ignoring horizontal permeability magnitudes and directions and demonstrates the importance of adequate reservoir testing. A new rationalization for multiple-lateral horizontal wells ismore » the reduction of the economic risk associated with poor reservoir characterization in areally anisotropic formations while increasing the incremental net present value (NPV) over single-horizontal wells.« less

Risk factors of suicide mortality among multiple attempters: A national registry study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chen, I-Ming; Liao, Shih-Cheng; Lee, Ming-Been; Wu, Chia-Yi; Lin, Po-Hsien; Chen, Wei J

2016-05-01

Little is known about the risk factors of suicide mortality among multiple attempters. This study aims to investigate the predictors of suicidal mortality in a prospective cohort of attempters in Taiwan, focusing on the time interval and suicide method change between the last two nonfatal attempts. The representative data retrieved from the National Suicide Surveillance System (NSSS) was linked with National Mortality Database to identify the causes of death in multiple attempters during 2006-2008. Cox-proportional hazard models were applied to calculate the hazard ratios for the predictors of suicide. Among the 55,560 attempters, 6485 (11.7%) had survived attempts ranging from one to 11 times; 861 (1.5%) eventually died by suicide. Multiple attempters were characterized by female (OR = 1.56, p < 0.0001), nonrecipient of national aftercare service (OR = 1.62, p < 0.0001), and current contact with mental health services (OR = 3.17, p < 0.0001). Most multiple attempters who survived from hanging (68.1%) and gas poisoning (61.9%) chose the same method in the following fatal episode. Predictors of suicidal death were identified as male, older age (≥ 45 years), shorter interval and not maintaining methods of low lethality in the last two nonfatal attempts. Receipt of nationwide aftercare was associated with lower risk of suicide but the effect was insignificant. The time interval of the last two nonfatal attempts and alteration in the lethality of suicide method were significant factors for completed suicide. Risk assessment involving these two factors may be necessary for multiple attempters in different clinical settings. Effective strategies for suicide prevention emphasizing this high risk population should be developed in the future. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Multiple-level stakeholder engagement in malaria clinical trials: addressing the challenges of conducting clinical research in resource-limited settings.

PubMed

Mtove, George; Kimani, Joshua; Kisinza, William; Makenga, Geofrey; Mangesho, Peter; Duparc, Stephan; Nakalembe, Miriam; Phiri, Kamija S; Orrico, Russell; Rojo, Ricardo; Vandenbroucke, Pol

2018-03-22

Multinational clinical trials are logistically complex and require close coordination between various stakeholders. They must comply with global clinical standards and are accountable to multiple regulatory and ethical bodies. In resource-limited settings, it is challenging to understand how to apply global clinical standards to international, national, and local factors in clinical trials, making multiple-level stakeholder engagement an important element in the successful conduct of these clinical trials. During the planning and implementation of a large multinational clinical trial for intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy in resource-limited areas of sub-Saharan Africa, we encountered numerous challenges, which required implementation of a range of engagement measures to ensure compliance with global clinical and regulatory standards. These challenges included coordination with ongoing global malaria efforts, heterogeneity in national regulatory structures, sub-optimal healthcare infrastructure, local practices and beliefs, and perspectives that view healthcare providers with undue trust or suspicion. In addition to engagement with international bodies, such as the World Health Organization, the Malaria in Pregnancy Consortium, the Steve Biko Centre for Bioethics, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, in order to address the challenges just described, Pfizer Inc. and Medicines for Malaria Venture (the "Sponsoring Entities" for these studies) and investigators liaised with national- and district-level stakeholders such as health ministers and regional/local community health workers. Community engagement measures undertaken by investigators included local meetings with community leaders to explain the research aims and answer questions and concerns voiced by the community. The investigators also engaged with family members of prospective trial participants in order to be sensitive to local practices and beliefs. Engagement

Addressable single-spin control in multiple quantum dots coupled in series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakajima, Takashi

2015-03-01

Electron spin in semiconductor quantum dots (QDs) is promising building block of quantum computers for its controllability and potential scalability. Recent experiments on GaAs QDs have demonstrated necessary ingredients of universal quantum gate operations: single-spin rotations by electron spin resonance (ESR) which is virtually free from the effect of nuclear spin fluctuation, and pulsed control of two-spin entanglement. The scalability of this architecture, however, has remained to be demonstrated in the real world. In this talk, we will present our recent results on implementing single-spin-based qubits in triple, quadruple, and quintuple QDs based on a series coupled architecture defined by gate electrodes. Deterministic initialization of individual spin states and spin-state readout were performed by the pulse operation of detuning between two neighboring QDs. The spin state was coherently manipulated by ESR, where each spin in different QDs is addressed by the shift of the resonance frequency due to the inhomogeneous magnetic field induced by the micro magnet deposited on top of the QDs. Control of two-spin entanglement was also demonstrated. We will discuss key issues for implementing quantum algorithms based on three or more qubits, including the effect of a nuclear spin bath, single-shot readout fidelity, and tuning of multiple qubit devices. Our approaches to these issues will be also presented. This research is supported by Funding Program for World-Leading Innovative R&D on Science and Technology (FIRST) from JSPS, IARPA project ``Multi-Qubit Coherent Operations'' through Copenhagen University, and Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research from JSPS.

ISSUES THAT MUST BE ADDRESSED FOR RISK ASSESSMENT OF MIXED EXPOSURES: THE EPA EXPERIENCE WITH AIR QUALITY

EPA Science Inventory

Issues that Must be Addressed for Risk Assessment of Mixed Exposures: The EPA Experience with Air Quality

Daniel L. Costa, Sc.D.

Abstract
Humans are routinely exposed to a complex mixture of air pollutants in both their outdoor and indoor environments. The wide...

Cancer risks in naval divers with multiple exposures to carcinogens.

PubMed Central

Richter, Elihu D; Friedman, Lee S; Tamir, Yuval; Berman, Tamar; Levy, Or; Westin, Jerome B; Peretz, Tamar

2003-01-01

We investigated risks for cancer and the case for a cause-effect relationship in five successive cohorts of naval commando divers (n = 682) with prolonged underwater exposures (skin, gastrointestinal tract, and airways) to many toxic compounds in the Kishon River, Israel's most polluted waterway, from 1948 to 1995. Releases of industrial, ship, and agricultural effluents in the river increased substantially, fish yields decreased, and toxic damage to marine organisms increased. Among the divers (16,343 person-years follow-up from 18 years of age to year 2000), the observed/expected ratio for all tumors was 2.29 (p<0.01). Risks increased in cohorts first diving after 1960 compared to risks in earlier cohorts, notably for hematolymphopoietic, central nervous system, gastrointestinal, and skin cancer; induction periods were often brief. The findings suggest that the increases in risk for cancer and short induction periods resulted from direct contact with and absorption of multiple toxic compounds. Early toxic effects in marine life predicted later risks for cancer in divers. PMID:12676624

Major stressful life events in adulthood and risk of multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Nielsen, Nete Munk; Bager, Peter; Simonsen, Jacob; Hviid, Anders; Stenager, Egon; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Koch-Henriksen, Nils; Frisch, Morten

2014-10-01

It is unclear whether psychological stress is associated with increased risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). We studied the association between major stressful life events and MS in a nationwide cohort study using death of a child or a spouse or marital dissolution as indicators of severe stress. We created two study cohorts based on all Danish men and women born 1950-1992. One cohort consisted of all persons who became parents between 1968 and 2010, and another cohort consisted of all persons who married between 1968 and 2010. Members of both cohorts were followed for MS between 1982 and 2010 using data from the National Multiple Sclerosis Registry. Associations between major stressful life events and risk of MS were evaluated by means of MS incidence rate ratios (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) obtained in Poisson regression analyses. During approximately 30 million person-years of follow-up, bereaved parents experienced no unusual risk of MS compared with parents who did not lose a child (RR=1.12 (95% CI 0.89 to 1.38)). Likewise, neither divorced (RR=0.98 (95% CI 0.89 to 1.06)) nor widowed (RR=0.98 (95% CI 0.71 to 1.32) persons were at any unusual risk of MS compared with married persons of the same sex. Our national cohort study provides little evidence for a causal association between major stressful life events (as exemplified by divorce or the loss of a child or a spouse) and subsequent MS risk. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

How Can eHealth Technology Address Challenges Related to Multimorbidity? Perspectives from Patients with Multiple Chronic Conditions.

PubMed

Zulman, Donna M; Jenchura, Emily C; Cohen, Danielle M; Lewis, Eleanor T; Houston, Thomas K; Asch, Steven M

2015-08-01

Patient eHealth technology offers potential support for disease self-management, but the value of existing applications for patients with multiple chronic conditions (MCCs) is unclear. To understand self-management and health care navigation challenges that patients face due to MCCs and to identify opportunities to support these patients through new and enhanced eHealth technology. After administering a screening survey, we conducted 10 focus groups of 3-8 patients grouped by age, sex, and common chronic conditions. Patients discussed challenges associated with having MCCs and their use of (and desires from) technology to support self-management. Three investigators used standard content analysis methods to code the focus group transcripts. Emergent themes were reviewed with all collaborators, and final themes and representative quotes were validated with a sample of participants. Fifty-three individuals with ≥3 chronic conditions and experience using technology for health-related purposes. Focus group participants had an average of five chronic conditions. Participants reported using technology most frequently to search for health information (96%), communicate with health care providers (92%), track medical information (83%), track medications (77%), and support decision-making about treatment (55%). Three themes emerged to guide eHealth technology development: (1) Patients with MCCs manage a high volume of information, visits, and self-care tasks; (2) they need to coordinate, synthesize, and reconcile health information from multiple providers and about different conditions; (3) their unique position at the hub of multiple health issues requires self-advocacy and expertise. Focus groups identified desirable eHealth resources and tools that reflect these themes. Although patients with multiple health issues use eHealth technology to support self-care for specific conditions, they also desire tools that transcend disease boundaries. By addressing the holistic

War-related trauma exposure and multiple risk behaviors among school-going adolescents in Northern Uganda: the mediating role of depression symptoms.

PubMed

Okello, James; Nakimuli-Mpungu, Etheldreda; Musisi, Seggane; Broekaert, Eric; Derluyn, Ilse

2013-11-01

The relationship between war-related trauma exposure, depressive symptoms and multiple risk behaviors among adolescents is less clear in sub-Saharan Africa. We analyzed data collected from a sample of school-going adolescents four years postwar. Participants completed interviews assessing various risk behaviors defined by the Youth Self Report (YSR) and a sexual risk behavior survey, and were screened for post-traumatic stress, anxiety and depression symptoms based on the Impact of Events Scale Revised (IESR) and Hopkins Symptom Checklist for Adolescents (HSCL-37A) respectively. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess factors independently associated with multiple risk behaviors. The logistic regression model of Baron and Kenny (1986) was used to evaluate the mediating role of depression in the relationship between stressful war events and multiple risk behaviors. Of 551 participants, 139 (25%) reported multiple (three or more) risk behaviors in the past year. In the multivariate analyses, depression symptoms remained uniquely associated with multiple risk behavior after adjusting for potential confounders including socio-demographic characteristics, war-related trauma exposure variables, anxiety and post-traumatic stress symptoms. In mediation analysis, depression symptoms mediated the associations between stressful war events and multiple risk behaviors. The psychometric properties of the questionnaires used in this study are not well established in war affected African samples thus ethno cultural variation may decrease the validity of our measures. Adolescents with depression may be at a greater risk of increased engagement in multiple risk behaviors. Culturally sensitive and integrated interventions to treat and prevent depression among adolescents in post-conflict settings are urgently needed. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Native Women at Risk: Addressing Cancer Prevention.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thiemann, Kay M. B.

1994-01-01

Discusses outcomes of a conference that brought together representatives from Indian tribes, state health departments, the Indian Health Service, the Mayo Clinic, and the American Cancer Society, to address the high rate of cervical cancer among American Indian women. Describes barriers to health care and plans to promote cancer screening among…

USING DOSE ADDITION TO ESTIMATE CUMULATIVE RISKS FROM EXPOSURES TO MULTIPLE CHEMICALS

EPA Science Inventory

The Food Quality Protection Act (FQPA) of 1996 requires the EPA to consider the cumulative risk from exposure to multiple chemicals that have a common mechanism of toxicity. Three methods, hazard index (HI), point-of-departure index (PODI), and toxicity equivalence factor (TEF), ...

Taking Multiple Exposure Into Account Can Improve Assessment of Chemical Risks.

PubMed

Clerc, Frédéric; Bertrand, Nicolas Jean Hyacinthe; La Rocca, Bénédicte

2017-12-15

During work, operators may be exposed to several chemicals simultaneously. Most exposure assessment approaches only determine exposure levels for each substance individually. However, such individual-substance approaches may not correctly estimate the toxicity of 'cocktails' of chemicals, as the toxicity of a cocktail may differ from the toxicity of substances on their own. This study presents an approach that can better take into account multiple exposure when assessing chemical risks. Almost 30000 work situations, monitored between 2005 and 2014 and recorded in two French databases, were analysed using MiXie software. The algorithms employed in MiXie can identify toxicological classes associated with several substances, based on the additivity of the selected effects of each substance. The results of our retrospective analysis show that MiXie was able to identify almost 20% more potentially hazardous situations than identified using a single-substance approach. It therefore appears essential to review the ways in which multiple exposure is taken into account during risk assessment. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

Risk perception in natalizumab-treated multiple sclerosis patients and their neurologists.

PubMed

Heesen, Christoph; Kleiter, Ingo; Nguyen, Franziska; Schäffler, Nina; Kasper, Jürgen; Köpke, Sascha; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang

2010-12-01

Natalizumab is associated with the potentially life-threatening side-effect progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). Little is known about patients' and physicians' risk estimates and attitudes towards natalizumab treatment. Consecutive natalizumab-treated patients (n = 69) and neurologists (n = 66) in two centres and cooperating private practices received an evidence-based three-page information leaflet about natalizumab-associated PML and an evaluation sheet. After reading the information, patients were significantly more likely than physicians to intend continuation of natalizumab treatment and willing to accept higher risks of PML: 49% of physicians would stop treatment at a PML risk of 2:10,000 or lower, while only 17% of patients would do so (p < 0.001). This difference could not be explained by risk calculation abilities or lack of understanding. Both groups overestimated natalizumab treatment effects. Patients had a significantly worse perception of multiple sclerosis as a malignant disease. We conclude that patients were willing to accept a higher risk of PML than neurologists. Coherent with their perception of risks and benefits, patients were also more willing to continue treatment. Open information about treatment-related risks is appreciated and might support shared decision making.

Examining relationships between multiple health risk behaviors, well-being, and productivity.

PubMed

Evers, Kerry E; Castle, Patricia H; Prochaska, James O; Prochaska, Janice M

2014-06-01

Traditionally, the concept of health promotion has emphasized the reduction of health risk behaviors to reduce disease and impairment. Well-being research expands this focus to include positive constructs such as thriving, productivity, life-evaluation, and emotional and physical health. The objective of the present study was to examine the relationships between health risk behaviors and specific measures of individual well-being. Participants (N = 790) from 49 states completed a one-time online assessment that included the Life-Evaluation Index, Emotional and Physical Health Ladders, the Health Risk Intervention Assessment, and the Work Productivity and Activity Improvement Questionnaire for General Health. Life Evaluation and physical and emotional health were all inversely related to the number of health risk behaviors, with higher well-being scores associated with lower number of risk behaviors. Across the three Life Evaluation categories (Suffering, Struggling, and Thriving) the number of health risk behaviors decreased, productivity loss decreased, and emotional and physical health increased. The results add to previous research on how reducing multiple health risk behaviors can be combined with well-being, i.e., an emphasis on increasing life-evaluation, emotional and physical health, better functioning, and productivity.

Long-term treatment risks in multiple sclerosis: risk knowledge and risk perception in a large cohort of mitoxantrone-treated patients.

PubMed

Hofmann, A; Stellmann, J P; Kasper, J; Ufer, F; Elias, W G; Pauly, I; Repenthin, J; Rosenkranz, T; Weber, T; Köpke, S; Heesen, C

2013-06-01

Balancing treatment benefits and risks is part of a shared decision-making process before initiating any treatment in multiple sclerosis (MS). Patients understand, appreciate and profit from evidence-based patient information (EBPI). While these processes are well known, long-term risk awareness and risk processing of patients has not been studied. Mitoxantrone treatment in MS is associated with long-term major potential harms - leukaemia (LK) and cardiotoxicity (CT). The risk knowledge and perception among patients currently or previously treated with mitoxantrone is unknown. The objective of this article is to conduct a retrospective cohort study in greater Hamburg, Germany, to estimate risk awareness and perception in MS patients treated with mitoxantrone. MS patients with at least one dose of mitoxantrone between 1991 and 2010 from six major MS centres in greater Hamburg received a questionnaire assessing risk awareness and perception as well as a written EBPI about mitoxantrone-associated LK and CT. Fifty-one per cent in the cohort of n = 575 patients returned the questionnaire. Forty per cent correctly estimated the risk of LK (CT 16%); 56% underestimated the risk (CT 82%). Reading the information increased the accuracy of LK risk estimation, and patients did not report an increase of worries. The EBPI was appreciated and recommended by 85%. Risk awareness of mitoxantrone-treated patients is insufficient, but can be increased by EBPI without increasing worries. Continued patient information during and after treatment should be implemented in management algorithms.

Impact of high-intensity concurrent training on cardiovascular risk factors in persons with multiple sclerosis - pilot study.

PubMed

Keytsman, Charly; Hansen, Dominique; Wens, Inez; O Eijnde, Bert

2017-10-27

High-intensity concurrent training positively affects cardiovascular risk factors. Because this was never investigated in multiple sclerosis, the present pilot study explored the impact of this training on cardiovascular risk factors in this population. Before and after 12 weeks of high-intense concurrent training (interval and strength training, 5 sessions per 2 weeks, n = 16) body composition, resting blood pressure and heart rate, 2-h oral glucose tolerance (insulin sensitivity, glycosylated hemoglobin, blood glucose and insulin concentrations), blood lipids (high- and low-density lipoprotein, total cholesterol, triglyceride levels) and C-reactive protein were analyzed. Twelve weeks of high-intense concurrent training significantly improved resting heart rate (-6%), 2-h blood glucose concentrations (-13%) and insulin sensitivity (-24%). Blood pressure, body composition, blood lipids and C-reactive protein did not seem to be affected. Under the conditions of this pilot study, 12 weeks of concurrent high-intense interval and strength training improved resting heart rate, 2-h glucose and insulin sensitivity in multiple sclerosis but did not affect blood C-reactive protein levels, blood pressure, body composition and blood lipid profiles. Further, larger and controlled research investigating the effects of high-intense concurrent training on cardiovascular risk factors in multiple sclerosis is warranted. Implications for rehabilitation High-intensity concurrent training improves cardiovascular fitness. This pilot study explores the impact of this training on cardiovascular risk factors in multiple sclerosis. Despite the lack of a control group, high-intense concurrent training does not seem to improve cardiovascular risk factors in multiple sclerosis.

Endotoxemia Following Multiple Trauma: Risk Factors and Prognostic Implications.

PubMed

Charbonney, Emmanuel; Tsang, Jennifer Y; Li, Yangmei; Klein, David; Duque, Patricia; Romaschin, Alexander; Marshall, John C

2016-02-01

To evaluate the prevalence and time course of systemic endotoxemia following severe multiple trauma, to define its risk factors, and to explore the correlation between post-trauma endotoxemia and organ dysfunction. Prospective single-center cohort study. Emergency department and ICU of adult tertiary care level I trauma center. Forty-eight severely injured (Injury Severity Score ≥ 16) patients, admitted to ICU within 24 hours of injury. None. Endotoxemia was not evident on initial presentation, but developed subsequently in 75% of patients, even in the absence of Gram-negative infection. Nonsurviving patients had higher endotoxin levels than survivors on day 1 (endotoxemia, 0.48 vs 0.28; p = 0.048). Shock at admission, or surgery within the first 48 hours after trauma, was associated with higher endotoxin levels and predicted subsequent maximal endotoxemia, after adjusting for other significant covariates. Maximal endotoxemia levels were higher in patients who developed organ dysfunction, reflected in a cumulative Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score greater than 25, and patients with an intermediate endotoxemia level (≥ 0.4) had more cardiovascular dysfunction. It is the first study to detect increasing levels of endotoxemia following multiple trauma. Shock and early surgery predict the development of endotoxemia; endotoxemia is particularly associated with cardiovascular dysfunction. However, Gram-negative infections are uncommon in these patients, suggesting that the gastrointestinal tract is the dominant reservoir of endotoxin. Endotoxin may be an appropriate therapeutic target in patients who have sustained severe multiple trauma.

A Topical Overview of Cumulative Risk Assessment Concepts, Methods, and Applications (2007–2016)

EPA Science Inventory

Cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) address combined risks from exposures to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors and may focus on vulnerable communities or populations. Significant contributions have been made to the development of concepts, methods, and applications for C...

Characteristics of Interventions Targeting Multiple Lifestyle Risk Behaviours in Adult Populations: A Systematic Scoping Review

PubMed Central

King, Kristel; Meader, Nick; Wright, Kath; Graham, Hilary; Power, Christine; Petticrew, Mark; White, Martin; Sowden, Amanda J.

2015-01-01

Background Modifiable lifestyle risk behaviours such as smoking, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity and alcohol misuse are the leading causes of major, non-communicable diseases worldwide. It is increasingly being recognised that interventions which target more than one risk behaviour may be an effective and efficient way of improving people’s lifestyles. To date, there has been no attempt to summarise the global evidence base for interventions targeting multiple risk behaviours. Objective To identify and map the characteristics of studies evaluating multiple risk behaviour change interventions targeted at adult populations in any country. Methods Seven bibliographic databases were searched between January, 1990, and January/ May, 2013. Authors of protocols, conference abstracts, and other relevant articles were contacted. Study characteristics were extracted and inputted into Eppi-Reviewer 4. Results In total, 220 studies were included in the scoping review. Most were randomised controlled trials (62%) conducted in the United States (49%), and targeted diet and physical activity (56%) in people from general populations (14%) or subgroups of general populations (45%). Very few studies had been conducted in the Middle East (2%), Africa (0.5%), or South America (0.5%). There was also a scarcity of studies conducted among young adults (1%), or racial and minority ethnic populations (4%) worldwide. Conclusions Research is required to investigate the interrelationships of lifestyle risk behaviours in varying cultural contexts around the world. Cross-cultural development and evaluation of multiple risk behaviour change interventions is also needed, particularly in populations of young adults and racial and minority ethnic populations. PMID:25617783

Sociodemographic factors associated with multiple cardiovascular risk factors among Malaysian adults.

PubMed

Ghazali, Sumarni Mohd; Seman, Zamtira; Cheong, Kee Chee; Hock, Lim Kuang; Manickam, Mala; Kuay, Lim Kuang; Yusoff, Ahmad Faudzi; Mustafa, Feisul Idzwan; Mustafa, Amal Nasir

2015-01-31

To determine the prevalence and sociodemographic correlates of multiple risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) among Malaysian adults. We analysed data on 1044 men and 1528 women, aged 24-64 years, participants in the Non Communicable Disease Surveillance 2005/2006, a nationally representative, population-based, cross-sectional study. Prevalence of obesity, high blood pressure, dyslipidaemia, hyperglycemia, physical inactivity, smoking, risky drinking, low vegetable and fruit intake were determined and multivariable logistic regression was used to identify sociodemographic factors associated with having ≥3 of these cardiovascular disease risk factors. The response rate was 84.6% (2572/3040). Overall, 68.4% (95% CI: 63.2, 73.1) had at least three risk factors. Among men, older age and Indian ethnicity were independently associated with having ≥3 CVD risk factors; while among women, older age, low education, and housewives were more likely to have ≥3 CVD risk factors. The prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors clustering among Malaysian adults is high, raising concerns that cardiovascular disease incidence will rise steeply in the near future if no immediate preventive measures are taken. The current national health education and promotion programmes pertaining to modifiable risk factors can be further improved by taking into account the sociodemographic variation in CVD risk factors clustering.

A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Multiple Myeloma.

PubMed

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, Karthik; Domike, Reuben; Kazandjian, Dickran; Landgren, Ola; Blumenthal, Gideon M; Farrell, Ann; Pazdur, Richard; Woodcock, Janet

2018-01-01

Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analysis. In this work, a quantitative benefit-risk analysis approach captures regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat multiple myeloma (MM). MM assessments have been based on endpoints such as time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR) which are different than benefit-risk analysis based on overall survival (OS). Twenty-three FDA decisions on MM drugs submitted to FDA between 2003 and 2016 were identified and analyzed. The benefits and risks were quantified relative to comparators (typically the control arm of the clinical trial) to estimate whether the median benefit-risk was positive or negative. A sensitivity analysis was demonstrated using ixazomib to explore the magnitude of uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes were consistent and logical using this benefit-risk framework. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Adolescent Non-Involvement in Multiple Risk Behaviors: An Indicator of Successful Development?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Willoughby, Teena; Chalmers, Heather; Busseri, Michael A.; Bosacki, Sandra; Dupont, Diane; Marini, Zopito; Rose-Krasnor, Linda; Sadava, Stan; Ward, Anthony; Woloshyn, Vera

2007-01-01

Based on the conceptualization of successful development as the joint maximization of desirable outcomes and minimization of undesirable outcomes (Baltes, 1997), the present study examined connections between adolescent non-involvement in multiple risk behaviors and positive developmental status. Results from a survey of 7290 high school students…

Regular analgesic use and risk of multiple myeloma.

PubMed

Moysich, Kirsten B; Bonner, Mathew R; Beehler, Gregory P; Marshall, James R; Menezes, Ravi J; Baker, Julie A; Weiss, Joli R; Chanan-Khan, Asher

2007-04-01

Analgesic use has been implicated in the chemoprevention of a number of solid tumors, but to date no previous research has focused on the role of analgesics in the etiology of multiple myeloma (MM). We conducted a hospital-based case-control study of 117 patients with primary, incident MM and 483 age and residence matched controls without benign or malignant neoplasms. All participants received medical services at Roswell Park Cancer Institute in Buffalo, NY, and completed a comprehensive epidemiological questionnaire. Participants who reported analgesic use at least once a week for at least 6 months were classified as regular users; individuals who did not use analgesics regularly served as the reference group throughout the analyses. We used unconditional logistic regression analyses to compute crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Compared to non-users, regular aspirin users were not at reduced risk of MM (adjusted OR=0.99; 95% CI 0.65-1.49), nor were participants with the highest frequency or duration of aspirin use. A significant risk elevation was found for participants who were regular acetaminophen users (adjusted OR=2.95; 95% CI 1.72-5.08). Further, marked increases in risk of MM were noted with both greater frequency (>7 tablets weekly; adjusted OR=4.36; 95% CI 1.70-11.2) and greater duration (>10 years; adjusted OR=3.26; 95% CI 1.52-7.02) of acetaminophen use. We observed no evidence of a chemoprotective effect of aspirin on MM risk, but observed significant risk elevations with various measures of acetaminophen use. Our results warrant further investigation in population-based case-control and cohort studies and should be interpreted with caution in light of the limited sample size and biases inherent in hospital-based studies.

Characterizing Risks of Exposures to Combined Stressors: An Overview

EPA Science Inventory

Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) addresses the impacts of multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors on communities, resulting from complex exposures for populations with a variety of vulnerabilities. These efforts focus on real world exposure scenarios and applications that ra...

Addressing Human System Risks to Future Space Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paloski, W. H.; Francisco, D. R.; Davis, J. R.

2015-01-01

NASA is contemplating future human exploration missions to destinations beyond low Earth orbit, including the Moon, deep-space asteroids, and Mars. While we have learned much about protecting crew health and performance during orbital space flight over the past half-century, the challenges of these future missions far exceed those within our current experience base. To ensure success in these missions, we have developed a Human System Risk Board (HSRB) to identify, quantify, and develop mitigation plans for the extraordinary risks associated with each potential mission scenario. The HSRB comprises research, technology, and operations experts in medicine, physiology, psychology, human factors, radiation, toxicology, microbiology, pharmacology, and food sciences. Methods: Owing to the wide range of potential mission characteristics, we first identified the hazards to human health and performance common to all exploration missions: altered gravity, isolation/confinement, increased radiation, distance from Earth, and hostile/closed environment. Each hazard leads to a set of risks to crew health and/or performance. For example the radiation hazard leads to risks of acute radiation syndrome, central nervous system dysfunction, soft tissue degeneration, and carcinogenesis. Some of these risks (e.g., acute radiation syndrome) could affect crew health or performance during the mission, while others (e.g., carcinogenesis) would more likely affect the crewmember well after the mission ends. We next defined a set of design reference missions (DRM) that would span the range of exploration missions currently under consideration. In addition to standard (6-month) and long-duration (1-year) missions in low Earth orbit (LEO), these DRM include deep space sortie missions of 1 month duration, lunar orbital and landing missions of 1 year duration, deep space journey and asteroid landing missions of 1 year duration, and Mars orbital and landing missions of 3 years duration. We then

Modeling Success: Using Preenrollment Data to Identify Academically At-Risk Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gansemer-Topf, Ann M.; Compton, Jonathan; Wohlgemuth, Darin; Forbes, Greg; Ralston, Ekaterina

2015-01-01

Improving student success and degree completion is one of the core principles of strategic enrollment management. To address this principle, institutional data were used to develop a statistical model to identify academically at-risk students. The model employs multiple linear regression techniques to predict students at risk of earning below a…

Class II HLA interactions modulate genetic risk for multiple sclerosis

PubMed Central

Dilthey, Alexander T; Xifara, Dionysia K; Ban, Maria; Shah, Tejas S; Patsopoulos, Nikolaos A; Alfredsson, Lars; Anderson, Carl A; Attfield, Katherine E; Baranzini, Sergio E; Barrett, Jeffrey; Binder, Thomas M C; Booth, David; Buck, Dorothea; Celius, Elisabeth G; Cotsapas, Chris; D’Alfonso, Sandra; Dendrou, Calliope A; Donnelly, Peter; Dubois, Bénédicte; Fontaine, Bertrand; Fugger, Lars; Goris, An; Gourraud, Pierre-Antoine; Graetz, Christiane; Hemmer, Bernhard; Hillert, Jan; Kockum, Ingrid; Leslie, Stephen; Lill, Christina M; Martinelli-Boneschi, Filippo; Oksenberg, Jorge R; Olsson, Tomas; Oturai, Annette; Saarela, Janna; Søndergaard, Helle Bach; Spurkland, Anne; Taylor, Bruce; Winkelmann, Juliane; Zipp, Frauke; Haines, Jonathan L; Pericak-Vance, Margaret A; Spencer, Chris C A; Stewart, Graeme; Hafler, David A; Ivinson, Adrian J; Harbo, Hanne F; Hauser, Stephen L; De Jager, Philip L; Compston, Alastair; McCauley, Jacob L; Sawcer, Stephen; McVean, Gil

2016-01-01

Association studies have greatly refined the understanding of how variation within the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes influences risk of multiple sclerosis. However, the extent to which major effects are modulated by interactions is poorly characterized. We analyzed high-density SNP data on 17,465 cases and 30,385 controls from 11 cohorts of European ancestry, in combination with imputation of classical HLA alleles, to build a high-resolution map of HLA genetic risk and assess the evidence for interactions involving classical HLA alleles. Among new and previously identified class II risk alleles (HLA-DRB1*15:01, HLA-DRB1*13:03, HLA-DRB1*03:01, HLA-DRB1*08:01 and HLA-DQB1*03:02) and class I protective alleles (HLA-A*02:01, HLA-B*44:02, HLA-B*38:01 and HLA-B*55:01), we find evidence for two interactions involving pairs of class II alleles: HLA-DQA1*01:01–HLA-DRB1*15:01 and HLA-DQB1*03:01–HLA-DQB1*03:02. We find no evidence for interactions between classical HLA alleles and non-HLA risk-associated variants and estimate a minimal effect of polygenic epistasis in modulating major risk alleles. PMID:26343388

Level of education and multiple sclerosis risk after adjustment for known risk factors: The EnvIMS study.

PubMed

Bjørnevik, Kjetil; Riise, Trond; Cortese, Marianna; Holmøy, Trygve; Kampman, Margitta T; Magalhaes, Sandra; Myhr, Kjell-Morten; Wolfson, Christina; Pugliatti, Maura

2016-01-01

Several recent studies have found a higher risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) among people with a low level of education. This has been suggested to reflect an effect of smoking and lower vitamin D status in the social class associated with lower levels of education. The objective of this paper is to investigate the association between level of education and MS risk adjusting for the known risk factors smoking, infectious mononucleosis, indicators of vitamin D levels and body size. Within the case-control study on Environmental Factors In MS (EnvIMS), 953 MS patients and 1717 healthy controls from Norway reported educational level and history of exposure to putative environmental risk factors. Higher level of education were associated with decreased MS risk (p trend = 0.001) with an OR of 0.53 (95% CI 0.41-0.68) when comparing those with the highest and lowest level of education. This association was only moderately reduced after adjusting for known risk factors (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.44-0.83). The estimates remained similar when cases with disease onset before age 28 were excluded. These findings suggest that factors related to lower socioeconomic status other than established risk factors are associated with MS risk. © The Author(s), 2015.

Level of education and multiple sclerosis risk after adjustment for known risk factors: The EnvIMS study

PubMed Central

Bjørnevik, Kjetil; Riise, Trond; Cortese, Marianna; Holmøy, Trygve; Kampman, Margitta T; Magalhaes, Sandra; Myhr, Kjell-Morten; Wolfson, Christina; Pugliatti, Maura

2016-01-01

Background: Several recent studies have found a higher risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) among people with a low level of education. This has been suggested to reflect an effect of smoking and lower vitamin D status in the social class associated with lower levels of education. Objective: The objective of this paper is to investigate the association between level of education and MS risk adjusting for the known risk factors smoking, infectious mononucleosis, indicators of vitamin D levels and body size. Methods: Within the case-control study on Environmental Factors In MS (EnvIMS), 953 MS patients and 1717 healthy controls from Norway reported educational level and history of exposure to putative environmental risk factors. Results: Higher level of education were associated with decreased MS risk (p trend = 0.001) with an OR of 0.53 (95% CI 0.41–0.68) when comparing those with the highest and lowest level of education. This association was only moderately reduced after adjusting for known risk factors (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.44–0.83). The estimates remained similar when cases with disease onset before age 28 were excluded. Conclusion: These findings suggest that factors related to lower socioeconomic status other than established risk factors are associated with MS risk. PMID:26014605

Execution of a self-directed risk assessment methodology to address HIPAA data security requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coleman, Johnathan

2003-05-01

This paper analyzes the method and training of a self directed risk assessment methodology entitled OCTAVE (Operationally Critical Threat Asset and Vulnerability Evaluation) at over 170 DOD medical treatment facilities. It focuses specifically on how OCTAVE built interdisciplinary, inter-hierarchical consensus and enhanced local capabilities to perform Health Information Assurance. The Risk Assessment Methodology was developed by the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University as part of the Defense Health Information Assurance Program (DHIAP). The basis for its success is the combination of analysis of organizational practices and technological vulnerabilities. Together, these areas address the core implications behind the HIPAA Security Rule and can be used to develop Organizational Protection Strategies and Technological Mitigation Plans. A key component of OCTAVE is the inter-disciplinary composition of the analysis team (Patient Administration, IT staff and Clinician). It is this unique composition of analysis team members, along with organizational and technical analysis of business practices, assets and threats, which enables facilities to create sound and effective security policies. The Risk Assessment is conducted in-house, and therefore the process, results and knowledge remain within the organization, helping to build consensus in an environment of differing organizational and disciplinary perspectives on Health Information Assurance.

Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world – the Roskilde recommendations.

EPA Science Inventory

Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common curre...

Evaluating local indirect addressing in SIMD proc essors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Middleton, David; Tomboulian, Sherryl

1989-01-01

In the design of parallel computers, there exists a tradeoff between the number and power of individual processors. The single instruction stream, multiple data stream (SIMD) model of parallel computers lies at one extreme of the resulting spectrum. The available hardware resources are devoted to creating the largest possible number of processors, and consequently each individual processor must use the fewest possible resources. Disagreement exists as to whether SIMD processors should be able to generate addresses individually into their local data memory, or all processors should access the same address. The tradeoff is examined between the increased capability and the reduced number of processors that occurs in this single instruction stream, multiple, locally addressed, data (SIMLAD) model. Factors are assembled that affect this design choice, and the SIMLAD model is compared with the bare SIMD and the MIMD models.

Longitudinal Prediction of Disruptive Behavior Disorders in Adolescent Males from Multiple Risk Domains

PubMed Central

Trentacosta, Christopher J.; Hyde, Luke W.; Goodlett, Benjamin D.; Shaw, Daniel S.

2012-01-01

The disruptive behavior disorders are among the most prevalent youth psychiatric disorders, and they predict numerous problematic outcomes in adulthood. This study examined multiple domains of risk during early childhood and early adolescence as longitudinal predictors of disruptive behavior disorder diagnoses among adolescent males. Early adolescent risks in the domains of sociodemographic factors, the caregiving context, and youth attributes were examined as mediators of associations between early childhood risks and disruptive behavior disorder diagnoses. Participants were 309 males from a longitudinal study of low-income mothers and their sons. Caregiving and youth risk during early adolescence each predicted the likelihood of receiving a disruptive behavior disorder diagnosis. Furthermore, sociodemographic and caregiving risk during early childhood were indirectly associated with disruptive behavior disorder diagnoses via their association with early adolescent risk. The findings suggest that preventive interventions targeting risk across domains may reduce the prevalence of disruptive behavior disorders. PMID:23239427

Common colorectal cancer risk alleles contribute to the multiple colorectal adenoma phenotype, but do not influence colonic polyposis in FAP.

PubMed

Cheng, Timothy H T; Gorman, Maggie; Martin, Lynn; Barclay, Ella; Casey, Graham; Saunders, Brian; Thomas, Huw; Clark, Sue; Tomlinson, Ian

2015-02-01

The presence of multiple (5-100) colorectal adenomas suggests an inherited predisposition, but the genetic aetiology of this phenotype is undetermined if patients test negative for Mendelian polyposis syndromes such as familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) and MUTYH-associated polyposis (MAP). We investigated whether 18 common colorectal cancer (CRC) predisposition single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) could help to explain some cases with multiple adenomas who phenocopied FAP or MAP, but had no pathogenic APC or MUTYH variant. No multiple adenoma case had an outlying number of CRC SNP risk alleles, but multiple adenoma patients did have a significantly higher number of risk alleles than population controls (P=5.7 × 10(-7)). The association was stronger in those with ≥10 adenomas. The CRC SNPs accounted for 4.3% of the variation in multiple adenoma risk, with three SNPs (rs6983267, rs10795668, rs3802842) explaining 3.0% of the variation. In FAP patients, the CRC risk score did not differ significantly from the controls, as we expected given the overwhelming effect of pathogenic germline APC variants on the phenotype of these cases. More unexpectedly, we found no evidence that the CRC SNPs act as modifier genes for the number of colorectal adenomas in FAP patients. In conclusion, common colorectal tumour risk alleles contribute to the development of multiple adenomas in patients without pathogenic germline APC or MUTYH variants. This phenotype may have 'polygenic' or monogenic origins. The risk of CRC in relatives of multiple adenoma cases is probably much lower for cases with polygenic disease, and this should be taken into account when counselling such patients.

Surrogate endpoints in clinical trials of chronic kidney disease progression: moving from single to multiple risk marker response scores.

PubMed

Schievink, Bauke; Mol, Peter G M; Lambers Heerspink, Hiddo J

2015-11-01

There is increased interest in developing surrogate endpoints for clinical trials of chronic kidney disease progression, as the established clinically meaningful endpoint end-stage renal disease requires large and lengthy trials to assess drug efficacy. We describe recent developments in the search for novel surrogate endpoints. Declines in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 30% or 40% and albuminuria have been proposed as surrogates for end-stage renal disease. However, changes in eGFR or albuminuria may not be valid under all circumstances as drugs always have effects on multiple renal risk markers. Changes in each of these other 'off-target' risk markers can alter renal risk (either beneficially or adversely), and can thereby confound the relationship between surrogates that are based on single risk markers and renal outcome. Risk algorithms that integrate the short-term drug effects on multiple risk markers to predict drug effects on hard renal outcomes may therefore be more accurate. The validity of these risk algorithms is currently investigated. Given that drugs affect multiple renal risk markers, risk scores that integrate these effects are a promising alternative to using eGFR decline or albuminuria. Proper validation is required before these risk scores can be implemented.

Multiple Human Papilloma Virus Infections and Their Impact on the Development of High-Risk Cervical Lesions.

PubMed

Salazar, Katrina L; Zhou, Haijun Steve; Xu, Jiaqiong; Peterson, Leif E; Schwartz, Mary R; Mody, Dina R; Ge, Yimin

2015-01-01

Individuals are often infected with multiple genotypes of human papillomavirus (HPV) simultaneously, but the role these infections play in the development of cervical disease is not well established. This study aimed to determine the association of multiple HPV infections with high-risk cervical lesions (hrCLs). HPV genotyping was performed on 798 SurePath specimens collected between December 1, 2009, and April 30, 2011. The cases were classified as hrCL (n = 90) or non-hrCL (n = 708) based on cytology diagnoses. The association between hrCL and HPV infection patterns was analyzed. Multiple HPV infections were frequently encountered (38.2%) in the cohort. Increased frequency of hrCLs was associated with a single high-risk HPV (hrHPV) infection. An additive or synergistic effect was not observed for hrCL in multiple HPV infections. The hrCL rates appeared to decrease in various patterns of multiple HPV infections, but the reduction was not statistically significant. Multiple HPV infections are common with no additive or synergistic effect on the development of hrCL. Conversely, reduced hrCL rates were observed in various patterns of multiple HPV infections compared to their single-genotype infection counterparts, suggestive of possible intergenotypic competition or more effective immune response triggered by multiple infections. Further studies in larger cohorts are needed. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Dilemmas in Treating Smoldering Multiple Myeloma

PubMed Central

Ahn, Inhye E.; Mailankody, Sham; Korde, Neha; Landgren, Ola

2015-01-01

Novel therapies hold promise for high-risk smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM). Recent studies suggest that modern combination approaches can be options for high-risk SMM to obtain deep molecular responses with favorable toxicity profiles. Although pioneering treatment trials based on small numbers of patients suggest progression-free and overall survival benefits, application of the data to real-life practice remains to be validated. Therapeutic modulation of disease tempo, disease burden, clonal evolution, and tumor microenvironment in SMM remains to be understood and calls for reliable biomarkers reflective of disease biology. Here, we review studies that open a new management platform for SMM, address ongoing dilemmas in practice and under investigation, and highlight emerging scientific questions in the era of SMM treatment. PMID:25422486

Psychosocial risks associated with multiple births resulting from assisted reproduction: a Spanish sample.

PubMed

Roca de Bes, Montserrat; Gutierrez Maldonado, José; Gris Martínez, José M

2009-09-01

To determine the psychosocial risks associated with multiple births (twins or triplets) resulting from assisted reproductive technology (ART). Transverse study. Infertility units of a university hospital and a private hospital. Mothers and fathers of children between 6 months and 4 years conceived by ART (n = 123). The sample was divided into three groups: parents of singletons (n = 77), twins (n = 37), and triplets (n = 9). The questionnaire was self-administered by patients. It was either completed at the hospital or mailed to participants' homes. Scales measured material needs, quality of life, social stigma, depression, stress, and marital satisfaction. Logistic regression models were applied. Significant odds ratios were obtained for the number of children, material needs, social stigma, quality of life, and marital satisfaction. The results were more significant for data provided by mothers than by fathers. The informed consent form handed out at the beginning of ART should include information on the high risk of conceiving twins and triplets and on the possible psychosocial consequences of multiple births. As soon as a multiple pregnancy is confirmed, it would be useful to provide information on support groups and institutions. Psychological advice should also be given to the parents.

A Conceptual Framework for Addressing Residual Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in the Era of Precision Medicine.

PubMed

Patel, Kershaw V; Pandey, Ambarish; de Lemos, James A

2018-04-11

Until recently, therapies to mitigate atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk have been limited to lifestyle interventions, blood pressure lowering medications, high intensity statin therapy, antiplatelet agents, and in select patients, coronary artery revascularization. Despite administration of these evidence-based therapies, substantial residual risk for cardiovascular events persists, particularly among individuals with known ASCVD. Moreover, the current guideline-based approach does not adequately account for patient-specific, causal pathways that lead to ASCVD progression and complications. In the past few years, multiple new pharmacological agents, targeting conceptually distinct pathophysiological targets, have been shown in large and well-conducted clinical trials to lower cardiovascular risk among patients with established ASCVD receiving guideline directed medical care. These evidenced-based therapies reduce event rates, and in some cases all-cause and cardiovascular mortality; these benefits confirm important new disease targets and challenge the adequacy of the current "standard of care" for secondary prevention.

Multidimensional Family Therapy: Addressing Co-Occurring Substance Abuse and Other Problems among Adolescents with Comprehensive Family-Based Treatment

PubMed Central

Rowe, Cynthia L.

2010-01-01

Synopsis Adolescent substance abuse rarely occurs without other psychiatric and developmental problems, yet it is often treated and researched as if it can be isolated from comorbid conditions. Few comprehensive interventions are available that effectively address the range of co-occurring problems associated with adolescent substance abuse. This article reviews the clinical interventions and research evidence supporting the use of Multidimensional Family Therapy (MDFT) for adolescents with substance abuse and co-occurring problems. MDFT is uniquely suited to address adolescent substance abuse and related disorders given its comprehensive interventions that systematically target the multiple interacting risk factors underlying many developmental disruptions of adolescence. PMID:20682221

A Minority Report for Social Work? The Predictive Risk Model (PRM) and the Tuituia Assessment Framework in addressing the needs of New Zealand's Vulnerable Children

PubMed Central

Oak, Eileen

2016-01-01

This article examines the viability of the Risk Predictor Model (RPM) and its counterpart the actuarial risk assessment (ARA) tool in the form of the Tuituia Assessment Framework to address child vulnerability in New Zealand. In doing so, it suggests that these types of risk-assessment tools fail to address issues of contingency and complexity at the heart of the relationship-based nature of social work practice. Such developments have considerable implications for the capacity to enhance critical reflexive practice skills, whilst the introduction of these risk tools is occurring at a time when the reflexive space is being eroded as a result of the increased regulation of practice and supervision. It is further asserted that the primary aim of such instruments is not so much to detect risk, but rather to foster professional conformity with these managerialist risk-management systems so prevalent in contemporary Western societies. PMID:27559223

[Multiple risk factors models of patients with acute coronary syndromes of different genders].

PubMed

Sun, Wanglexian; Hu, Tiemin; Huang, Xiansheng; Zhang, Ying; Guo, Jinrui; Wang, Wenfeng; Shi, Fei; Wang, Pengfei; Wang, Huarong; Sun, Jing; Li, Chunhua

2014-12-23

To establish the multiple risk factors models for patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) of different genders and quantitatively assess the pathopoiesis of all factors. A total of 2 308 consecutive ACS inpatients and a control group of 256 cases with normal coronary artery from January 2010 to December 2012 were enrolled and divided into 4 groups of female ACS (n = 970), male ACS (n = 1 338), female control (n = 136) and male control (n = 120). All demographic and clinical data were collected by the physicians and master degree candidates in the division of cardiology. The Logistic regression models of multiple risk factors were established for ACS by different genders. More than 45 years of age, dyslipidemia, type 2 diabetes mellitus, obesity and hypertension were all independent risk factors of ACS for different genders (P < 0.05). However, the same risk factors had different pathogenic effects on ACS between genders. The odds ratio (OR) was markedly different for females and males: per 5-year increase aged over 45 years (1.45 vs 1.13), dyslipidemia (3.45 vs 1.68), type 2 diabetes mellitus (4.06 vs 2.33), obesity (2.93 vs 1.91) and hypertension (1.78 vs 3.80) respectively (all P < 0.05). In addition, current smoking increased the risk of ACS attack in males by 5.49 (P < 0.05) while not statistically significant in females. Particularly cerebral ischemic stroke increased the risk of ACS attack by 5.49 folds in males other than females (P < 0.05). Type 2 diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia and obesity may present higher risks of ACS attack for females than males. And smoking and hypertension are much more dangerous for males. Males with cerebral infarction are more susceptible for ACS than females.

Schizophrenia-associated methylomic variation: molecular signatures of disease and polygenic risk burden across multiple brain regions.

PubMed

Viana, Joana; Hannon, Eilis; Dempster, Emma; Pidsley, Ruth; Macdonald, Ruby; Knox, Olivia; Spiers, Helen; Troakes, Claire; Al-Saraj, Safa; Turecki, Gustavo; Schalkwyk, Leonard C; Mill, Jonathan

2017-01-01

Genetic association studies provide evidence for a substantial polygenic component to schizophrenia, although the neurobiological mechanisms underlying the disorder remain largely undefined. Building on recent studies supporting a role for developmentally regulated epigenetic variation in the molecular aetiology of schizophrenia, this study aimed to identify epigenetic variation associated with both a diagnosis of schizophrenia and elevated polygenic risk burden for the disease across multiple brain regions. Genome-wide DNA methylation was quantified in 262 post-mortem brain samples, representing tissue from four brain regions (prefrontal cortex, striatum, hippocampus and cerebellum) from 41 schizophrenia patients and 47 controls. We identified multiple disease-associated and polygenic risk score-associated differentially methylated positions and regions, which are not enriched in genomic regions identified in genetic studies of schizophrenia and do not reflect direct genetic effects on DNA methylation. Our study represents the first analysis of epigenetic variation associated with schizophrenia across multiple brain regions and highlights the utility of polygenic risk scores for identifying molecular pathways associated with aetiological variation in complex disease. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luxhoj, J. T.; Ancel, E.; Green, L. L.; Shih, A. T.; Jones, S. M.; Reveley, M. S.

2014-01-01

Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

Estimation of effective dose and lifetime attributable risk from multiple head CT scans in ventriculoperitoneal shunted children.

PubMed

Aw-Zoretic, J; Seth, D; Katzman, G; Sammet, S

2014-10-01

The purpose of this review is to determine the averaged effective dose and lifetime attributable risk factor from multiple head computed tomography (CT) dose data on children with ventriculoperitoneal shunts (VPS). A total of 422 paediatric head CT exams were found between October 2008 and January 2011 and retrospectively reviewed. The CT dose data was weighted with the latest IRCP 103 conversion factor to obtain the effective dose per study and the averaged effective dose was calculated. Estimates of the lifetime attributable risk were also calculated from the averaged effective dose using a conversion factor from the latest BEIR VII report. Our study found the highest effective doses in neonates and the lowest effective doses were observed in the 10-18 years age group. We estimated a 0.007% potential increase risk in neonates and 0.001% potential increased risk in teenagers over the base risk. Multiple head CTs in children equates to a slight potential increase risk in lifetime attributable risk over the baseline risk for cancer, slightly higher in neonates relative to teenagers. The potential risks versus clinical benefit must be assessed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Meta-analysis of Multiple Myeloma Risk Regions in African and European Ancestry Populations Identifies Putatively Functional Loci.

PubMed

Rand, Kristin A; Song, Chi; Dean, Eric; Serie, Daniel J; Curtin, Karen; Sheng, Xin; Hu, Donglei; Huff, Carol Ann; Bernal-Mizrachi, Leon; Tomasson, Michael H; Ailawadhi, Sikander; Singhal, Seema; Pawlish, Karen; Peters, Edward S; Bock, Cathryn H; Stram, Alex; Van Den Berg, David J; Edlund, Christopher K; Conti, David V; Zimmerman, Todd; Hwang, Amie E; Huntsman, Scott; Graff, John; Nooka, Ajay; Kong, Yinfei; Pregja, Silvana L; Berndt, Sonja I; Blot, William J; Carpten, John; Casey, Graham; Chu, Lisa; Diver, W Ryan; Stevens, Victoria L; Lieber, Michael R; Goodman, Phyllis J; Hennis, Anselm J M; Hsing, Ann W; Mehta, Jayesh; Kittles, Rick A; Kolb, Suzanne; Klein, Eric A; Leske, Cristina; Murphy, Adam B; Nemesure, Barbara; Neslund-Dudas, Christine; Strom, Sara S; Vij, Ravi; Rybicki, Benjamin A; Stanford, Janet L; Signorello, Lisa B; Witte, John S; Ambrosone, Christine B; Bhatti, Parveen; John, Esther M; Bernstein, Leslie; Zheng, Wei; Olshan, Andrew F; Hu, Jennifer J; Ziegler, Regina G; Nyante, Sarah J; Bandera, Elisa V; Birmann, Brenda M; Ingles, Sue A; Press, Michael F; Atanackovic, Djordje; Glenn, Martha J; Cannon-Albright, Lisa A; Jones, Brandt; Tricot, Guido; Martin, Thomas G; Kumar, Shaji K; Wolf, Jeffrey L; Deming Halverson, Sandra L; Rothman, Nathaniel; Brooks-Wilson, Angela R; Rajkumar, S Vincent; Kolonel, Laurence N; Chanock, Stephen J; Slager, Susan L; Severson, Richard K; Janakiraman, Nalini; Terebelo, Howard R; Brown, Elizabeth E; De Roos, Anneclaire J; Mohrbacher, Ann F; Colditz, Graham A; Giles, Graham G; Spinelli, John J; Chiu, Brian C; Munshi, Nikhil C; Anderson, Kenneth C; Levy, Joan; Zonder, Jeffrey A; Orlowski, Robert Z; Lonial, Sagar; Camp, Nicola J; Vachon, Celine M; Ziv, Elad; Stram, Daniel O; Hazelett, Dennis J; Haiman, Christopher A; Cozen, Wendy

2016-12-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in European populations have identified genetic risk variants associated with multiple myeloma. We performed association testing of common variation in eight regions in 1,318 patients with multiple myeloma and 1,480 controls of European ancestry and 1,305 patients with multiple myeloma and 7,078 controls of African ancestry and conducted a meta-analysis to localize the signals, with epigenetic annotation used to predict functionality. We found that variants in 7p15.3, 17p11.2, 22q13.1 were statistically significantly (P < 0.05) associated with multiple myeloma risk in persons of African ancestry and persons of European ancestry, and the variant in 3p22.1 was associated in European ancestry only. In a combined African ancestry-European ancestry meta-analysis, variation in five regions (2p23.3, 3p22.1, 7p15.3, 17p11.2, 22q13.1) was statistically significantly associated with multiple myeloma risk. In 3p22.1, the correlated variants clustered within the gene body of ULK4 Correlated variants in 7p15.3 clustered around an enhancer at the 3' end of the CDCA7L transcription termination site. A missense variant at 17p11.2 (rs34562254, Pro251Leu, OR, 1.32; P = 2.93 × 10 -7 ) in TNFRSF13B encodes a lymphocyte-specific protein in the TNF receptor family that interacts with the NF-κB pathway. SNPs correlated with the index signal in 22q13.1 cluster around the promoter and enhancer regions of CBX7 CONCLUSIONS: We found that reported multiple myeloma susceptibility regions contain risk variants important across populations, supporting the use of multiple racial/ethnic groups with different underlying genetic architecture to enhance the localization and identification of putatively functional alleles. A subset of reported risk loci for multiple myeloma has consistent effects across populations and is likely to be functional. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(12); 1609-18. ©2016 AACR. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

Body Mass Index and Physical Activity at Different Ages and Risk of Multiple Myeloma in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study

PubMed Central

Hofmann, Jonathan N.; Moore, Steven C.; Lim, Unhee; Park, Yikyung; Baris, Dalsu; Hollenbeck, Albert R.; Matthews, Charles E.; Gibson, Todd M.; Hartge, Patricia; Purdue, Mark P.

2013-01-01

Several studies have reported an increased risk of multiple myeloma associated with excess body weight. We investigated the risk of multiple myeloma in relation to separate measures of adiposity and energy balance at different ages in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study, a large prospective cohort study in the United States. Participants completed a baseline questionnaire (1995–1996; n = 485,049), and a subset of participants completed a second questionnaire (1996–1997; n = 305,618) in which we solicited more detailed exposure information. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated for the risk of multiple myeloma (overall, n = 813; subset, n = 489) in relation to several measures of obesity and leisure time physical activity. Multiple myeloma risk was associated with increasing body mass index (BMI) at cohort entry (per 5-kg/m2 increase, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.10, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00, 1.22); similar associations were observed for BMI at age 50 years (HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.28), age 35 years (HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.36), and age 18 years (HR = 1.13, 95% CI: 0.98, 1.32) without adjustment for baseline BMI. Risk of multiple myeloma was not associated with physical activity level at any age. These findings support the hypothesis that excess body weight, both in early adulthood and later in life, is a risk factor for multiple myeloma and suggest that maintaining a healthy body weight throughout life may reduce multiple myeloma risk. PMID:23543160

School environment assessment tools to address behavioural risk factors of non-communicable diseases: A scoping review.

PubMed

Saluja, Kiran; Rawal, Tina; Bassi, Shalini; Bhaumik, Soumyadeep; Singh, Ankur; Park, Min Hae; Kinra, Sanjay; Arora, Monika

2018-06-01

We aimed to identify, describe and analyse school environment assessment (SEA) tools that address behavioural risk factors (unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, tobacco and alcohol consumption) for non-communicable diseases (NCD). We searched in MEDLINE and Web of Science, hand-searched reference lists and contacted experts. Basic characteristics, measures assessed and measurement properties (validity, reliability, usability) of identified tools were extracted. We narratively synthesized the data and used content analysis to develop a list of measures used in the SEA tools. Twenty-four SEA tools were identified, mostly from developed countries. Out of these, 15 were questionnaire based, 8 were checklists or observation based tools and one tool used a combined checklist/observation based and telephonic questionnaire approach. Only 1 SEA tool had components related to all the four NCD risk factors, 2 SEA tools has assessed three NCD risk factors (diet/nutrition, physical activity, tobacco), 10 SEA tools has assessed two NCD risk factors (diet/nutrition and physical activity) and 11 SEA tools has assessed only one of the NCD risk factor. Several measures were used in the tools to assess the four NCD risk factors, but tobacco and alcohol was sparingly included. Measurement properties were reported for 14 tools. The review provides a comprehensive list of measures used in SEA tools which could be a valuable resource to guide future development of such tools. A valid and reliable SEA tool which could simultaneously evaluate all NCD risk factors, that has been tested in different settings with varying resource availability is needed.

Risk of multiple myeloma following medication use and medical conditions: a case-control study in Connecticut women.

PubMed

Landgren, Ola; Zhang, Yawei; Zahm, Sheila Hoar; Inskip, Peter; Zheng, Tongzhang; Baris, Dalsu

2006-12-01

Certain commonly used drugs and medical conditions characterized by chronic immune dysfunction and/or antigen stimulation have been suggested to affect important pathways in multiple myeloma tumor cell growth and survival. We conducted a population-based case-control study to investigate the role of medical history in the etiology of multiple myeloma among Connecticut women. A total of 179 incident multiple myeloma cases (21-84 years, diagnosed 1996-2002) and 691 population-based controls was included in this study. Information on medical conditions, medications, and medical radiation was obtained by in-person interviews. We calculated odds ratios (OR) as measures of relative risks using logistic regression models. A reduced multiple myeloma risk was found among women who had used antilipid statin therapy [OR, 0.4; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.2-0.8] or estrogen replacement therapy (OR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.4-0.99) or who had a medical history of allergy (OR, 0.4; 95% CI, 0.3-0.7), scarlet fever (OR, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.2-0.9), or bursitis (OR, 0.4; 95% CI, 0.2-0.7). An increased risk of multiple myeloma was found among women who used prednisone (OR, 5.1; 95% CI, 1.8-14.4), insulin (OR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.1-9.0), or gout medication (OR, 6.7; 95% CI, 1.2-38.0). If our results are confirmed, mechanistic studies examining how prior use of insulin, prednisone, and, perhaps, gout medication might promote increased occurrence of multiple myeloma and how antilipid statins, estrogen replacement therapy, and certain medical conditions might protect against multiple myeloma may provide insights to the as yet unknown etiology of multiple myeloma.

Matrix-addressed analog ferroelectric memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemons, R. A.; Grogan, J. K.; Thompson, J. S.

1980-08-01

A matrix addressed analog memory which uses multiple ferroelectric domain walls to address columns of words, is demonstrated. It is shown that the analog information is stored as a pattern in the metallization on the surface of the crystal, making a read-only memory. The pattern is done photolithographically in a way compatible with the simultaneous fabrication of many devices. Attention is given to the performance results, noting that the advantage of the device is that analog information can be stored with a high density in a single mask step. Finally, it is shown that potential applications are in systems which require repetitive output from a limited vocabulary of spoken words.

Addressing small sample size bias in multiple-biomarker trials: Inclusion of biomarker-negative patients and Firth correction.

PubMed

Habermehl, Christina; Benner, Axel; Kopp-Schneider, Annette

2018-03-01

In recent years, numerous approaches for biomarker-based clinical trials have been developed. One of these developments are multiple-biomarker trials, which aim to investigate multiple biomarkers simultaneously in independent subtrials. For low-prevalence biomarkers, small sample sizes within the subtrials have to be expected, as well as many biomarker-negative patients at the screening stage. The small sample sizes may make it unfeasible to analyze the subtrials individually. This imposes the need to develop new approaches for the analysis of such trials. With an expected large group of biomarker-negative patients, it seems reasonable to explore options to benefit from including them in such trials. We consider advantages and disadvantages of the inclusion of biomarker-negative patients in a multiple-biomarker trial with a survival endpoint. We discuss design options that include biomarker-negative patients in the study and address the issue of small sample size bias in such trials. We carry out a simulation study for a design where biomarker-negative patients are kept in the study and are treated with standard of care. We compare three different analysis approaches based on the Cox model to examine if the inclusion of biomarker-negative patients can provide a benefit with respect to bias and variance of the treatment effect estimates. We apply the Firth correction to reduce the small sample size bias. The results of the simulation study suggest that for small sample situations, the Firth correction should be applied to adjust for the small sample size bias. Additional to the Firth penalty, the inclusion of biomarker-negative patients in the analysis can lead to further but small improvements in bias and standard deviation of the estimates. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

[Retinopathy of prematurity in multiple births: risk analysis for plus disease].

PubMed

García-Serrano, J L; Ramírez-García, M C; Piñar-Molina, R

2009-04-01

To analyze the risk factors associated with plus disease in retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). Over a period of 8.5 years we carried out a prospective study of ROP in twins and triplets. Fifty-four multiple-birth infants with low birth weight (< or =1500 g) and low gestational age (32< or = weeks) were admitted to the University Hospital of Granada. Logistic regression analyses showed the following variables to be associated with an increased risk of plus disease: severe ROP, large area of avascular retina, low gestational age, low birth weight, a patent ductus arteriosus, length of mechanical ventilation, adverse events increase, low 5 min Apgar scores and poor postnatal weight gain (in the first 4 to 6 weeks of life). Using multiple logistic regression, only the grade of ROP (OR: 5.5; p < 0.009) and poor postnatal weight gain (OR: 0.58; p < 0.04) were predictive factors of development of plus disease. Infants with disease gained an average 3.9 +/- 3.1 g/day in the first 6 weeks of life, compared to a mean of 11.84 +/- 8.3 g/day for those without plus disease (p < 0.0001). Advanced ROP stages and poor weight gain were the most significant factors associated with plus disease. Twins who gained weight at more than 7 g/day in the first 4-6 weeks of life had a significantly reduced risk of plus disease. A good weight gain is an effective strategy against avoidable blindness due to ROP.

A self-determination multiple risk intervention trial to improve smokers' health.

PubMed

Williams, Geoffrey C; McGregor, Holly; Sharp, Daryl; Kouldes, Ruth W; Lévesque, Chantal S; Ryan, Richard M; Deci, Edward L

2006-12-01

Little is known about how interventions motivate individuals to change multiple health risk behaviors. Self-determination theory (SDT) proposes that patient autonomy is an essential factor for motivating change. An SDT-based intervention to enhance autonomous motivation for tobacco abstinence and improving cholesterol was tested. The Smokers' Health Study is a randomized multiple risk behavior change intervention trial. Smokers were recruited to a tobacco treatment center. A total of 1.006 adult smokers were recruited between 1999 and 2002 from physician offices and by newspaper advertisements. A 6-month clinical intervention (4 contacts) to facilitate internalization of autonomy and perceived competence for tobacco abstinence and reduced percent calories from fat was compared with community care. Clinicians elicited patient perspectives and life strivings, provided absolute coronary artery disease risk estimates,enumerated effective treatment options, supported patient initiatives,minimized clinician control, assessed motivation for change, and developed a plan for change. Twelve-month prolonged tobacco abstinence, and change in percent calories from fat and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) from baseline to 18 months. RESULTS- Intention to treat analyses revealed that the intervention significantly increased 12-month prolonged tobacco abstinence (6.2% vs 2.4%; odds ratio [OR]=2.7, P=.01, number needed to treat [NNT] =26), and reduced LDL-C (-8.9 vs -4.1 mg/dL; P=.05). There was no effect on percent calories from fat. An intervention focused on supporting smokers'autonomy was effective in increasing prolonged tobacco abstinence and lowering LDL-C. Clinical interventions for behavior change may be improved by increasing patient autonomy and perceived competence.

Risk of multiple sclerosis inversely associated with birth order position.

PubMed

Isager, H; Andersen, E; Hyllested, K

1980-06-01

The aim of this study was to ascertain whether there is an association between risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) and birth order position. Our reference population was 198,000 persons born in the period 1930-50 and recorded in the register of school health records from the school health service of the Copenhagen council. We compared 46 persons from the register who had developed MS with matched controls from the register, three for each case. An inverse association between risk of MS and birth order position was found. Early birth orders tend to delay exposure to an infectous agent from early childhood to a later age. Therefore, our finding supports the hypothesis that MS is causally related to an infection that is inapparent when it occurs in early childhood, while infection later in life may result in severe disease

Development and validation of risk profiles of West African rural communities facing multiple natural hazards

PubMed Central

Renaud, Fabrice G.; Kloos, Julia; Walz, Yvonne; Rhyner, Jakob

2017-01-01

West Africa has been described as a hotspot of climate change. The reliance on rain-fed agriculture by over 65% of the population means that vulnerability to climatic hazards such as droughts, rainstorms and floods will continue. Yet, the vulnerability and risk levels faced by different rural social-ecological systems (SES) affected by multiple hazards are poorly understood. To fill this gap, this study quantifies risk and vulnerability of rural communities to drought and floods. Risk is assessed using an indicator-based approach. A stepwise methodology is followed that combines participatory approaches with statistical, remote sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop community level vulnerability indices in three watersheds (Dano, Burkina Faso; Dassari, Benin; Vea, Ghana). The results show varying levels of risk profiles across the three watersheds. Statistically significant high levels of mean risk in the Dano area of Burkina Faso are found whilst communities in the Dassari area of Benin show low mean risk. The high risk in the Dano area results from, among other factors, underlying high exposure to droughts and rainstorms, longer dry season duration, low caloric intake per capita, and poor local institutions. The study introduces the concept of community impact score (CIS) to validate the indicator-based risk and vulnerability modelling. The CIS measures the cumulative impact of the occurrence of multiple hazards over five years. 65.3% of the variance in observed impact of hazards/CIS was explained by the risk models and communities with high simulated disaster risk generally follow areas with high observed disaster impacts. Results from this study will help disaster managers to better understand disaster risk and develop appropriate, inclusive and well integrated mitigation and adaptation plans at the local level. It fulfills the increasing need to balance global/regional assessments with community level assessments where major decisions

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

PubMed

Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-13

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

PubMed Central

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-01-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

Risk factors for multiple myeloma: a hospital-based case-control study in Northwest China.

PubMed

Wang, Qixia; Wang, Yiwei; Ji, Zhaohua; Chen, Xiequn; Pan, Yaozhu; Gao, Guangxun; Gu, Hongtao; Yang, Yang; Choi, Bernard C K; Yan, Yongping

2012-10-01

The distinctive racial/ethnic and geographic distribution of multiple myeloma (MM) suggests that both family history and environmental factors may contribute to its development. A hospital-based case-control study consisting of 220 confirmed MM cases and 220 individually matched patient controls, by sex, age and hospital was carried out at 5 major hospitals in Northwest China. A questionnaire was used to obtain information on demographics, family history, and the frequency of food items consumed. Based on multivariate analysis, a significant association between the risk of MM and family history of cancers in first degree relatives was observed (OR=4.03, 95% CI: 2.50-6.52). Fried food, cured/smoked food, black tea, and fish were not significantly associated with the risk of MM. Intake of shallot and garlic (OR=0.60, 95% CI: 0.43-0.85), soy food (OR=0.52, 95% CI: 0.36-0.75) and green tea (OR=0.38, 95% CI: 0.27-0.53) was significantly associated with a reduced risk of MM. In contrast, intake of brined vegetables and pickle was significantly associated with an increased risk (OR=2.03, 95% CI: 1.41-2.93). A more than multiplicative interaction on the decreased risk of MM was found between shallot/garlic and soy food. Our study in Northwest China found an increased risk of MM with a family history of cancer, a diet characterized by low consumption of garlic, green tea and soy foods, and high consumption of pickled vegetables. The effect of green tea in reducing the risk of MM is an interesting new finding which should be further confirmed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling Freedom From Progression for Standard-Risk Medulloblastoma: A Mathematical Tumor Control Model With Multiple Modes of Failure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brodin, N. Patrik, E-mail: nils.patrik.brodin@rh.dk; Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen; Vogelius, Ivan R.

2013-10-01

Purpose: As pediatric medulloblastoma (MB) is a relatively rare disease, it is important to extract the maximum information from trials and cohort studies. Here, a framework was developed for modeling tumor control with multiple modes of failure and time-to-progression for standard-risk MB, using published pattern of failure data. Methods and Materials: Outcome data for standard-risk MB published after 1990 with pattern of relapse information were used to fit a tumor control dose-response model addressing failures in both the high-dose boost volume and the elective craniospinal volume. Estimates of 5-year event-free survival from 2 large randomized MB trials were used tomore » model the time-to-progression distribution. Uncertainty in freedom from progression (FFP) was estimated by Monte Carlo sampling over the statistical uncertainty in input data. Results: The estimated 5-year FFP (95% confidence intervals [CI]) for craniospinal doses of 15, 18, 24, and 36 Gy while maintaining 54 Gy to the posterior fossa was 77% (95% CI, 70%-81%), 78% (95% CI, 73%-81%), 79% (95% CI, 76%-82%), and 80% (95% CI, 77%-84%) respectively. The uncertainty in FFP was considerably larger for craniospinal doses below 18 Gy, reflecting the lack of data in the lower dose range. Conclusions: Estimates of tumor control and time-to-progression for standard-risk MB provides a data-driven setting for hypothesis generation or power calculations for prospective trials, taking the uncertainties into account. The presented methods can also be applied to incorporate further risk-stratification for example based on molecular biomarkers, when the necessary data become available.« less

Space Radiation Risks for Astronauts on Multiple International Space Station Missions

PubMed Central

Cucinotta, Francis A.

2014-01-01

Mortality and morbidity risks from space radiation exposure are an important concern for astronauts participating in International Space Station (ISS) missions. NASA’s radiation limits set a 3% cancer fatality probability as the upper bound of acceptable risk and considers uncertainties in risk predictions using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) of the assessment. In addition to risk limitation, an important question arises as to the likelihood of a causal association between a crew-members’ radiation exposure in the past and a diagnosis of cancer. For the first time, we report on predictions of age and sex specific cancer risks, expected years of life-loss for specific diseases, and probability of causation (PC) at different post-mission times for participants in 1-year or multiple ISS missions. Risk projections with uncertainty estimates are within NASA acceptable radiation standards for mission lengths of 1-year or less for likely crew demographics. However, for solar minimum conditions upper 95% CL exceed 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) by 18 months or 24 months for females and males, respectively. Median PC and upper 95%-confidence intervals are found to exceed 50% for several cancers for participation in two or more ISS missions of 18 months or longer total duration near solar minimum, or for longer ISS missions at other phases of the solar cycle. However, current risk models only consider estimates of quantitative differences between high and low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. We also make predictions of risk and uncertainties that would result from an increase in tumor lethality for highly ionizing radiation reported in animal studies, and the additional risks from circulatory diseases. These additional concerns could further reduce the maximum duration of ISS missions within acceptable risk levels, and will require new knowledge to properly evaluate. PMID:24759903

Space radiation risks for astronauts on multiple International Space Station missions.

PubMed

Cucinotta, Francis A

2014-01-01

Mortality and morbidity risks from space radiation exposure are an important concern for astronauts participating in International Space Station (ISS) missions. NASA's radiation limits set a 3% cancer fatality probability as the upper bound of acceptable risk and considers uncertainties in risk predictions using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) of the assessment. In addition to risk limitation, an important question arises as to the likelihood of a causal association between a crew-members' radiation exposure in the past and a diagnosis of cancer. For the first time, we report on predictions of age and sex specific cancer risks, expected years of life-loss for specific diseases, and probability of causation (PC) at different post-mission times for participants in 1-year or multiple ISS missions. Risk projections with uncertainty estimates are within NASA acceptable radiation standards for mission lengths of 1-year or less for likely crew demographics. However, for solar minimum conditions upper 95% CL exceed 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) by 18 months or 24 months for females and males, respectively. Median PC and upper 95%-confidence intervals are found to exceed 50% for several cancers for participation in two or more ISS missions of 18 months or longer total duration near solar minimum, or for longer ISS missions at other phases of the solar cycle. However, current risk models only consider estimates of quantitative differences between high and low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. We also make predictions of risk and uncertainties that would result from an increase in tumor lethality for highly ionizing radiation reported in animal studies, and the additional risks from circulatory diseases. These additional concerns could further reduce the maximum duration of ISS missions within acceptable risk levels, and will require new knowledge to properly evaluate.

Interventions addressing risk factors of ischaemic heart disease in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Ebireri, Jennifer; Aderemi, Adewale V; Omoregbe, Nicholas; Adeloye, Davies

2016-01-01

Background Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is currently ranked eighth among the leading causes of deaths in sub-Saharan Africa (sSA). Yet, effective population-wide preventive measures targeting risks in the region are still largely unavailable. We aimed to review population-wide and individual-level interventions addressing risk factors of IHD among adults in sSA. Methods A systematic search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health and AJOL was conducted to identify studies focusing on population-wide and individual-level interventions targeting risks of IHD among adults in sSA. We conducted a detailed synthesis of basic findings of selected studies. Results A total of 2311 studies were identified, with only 9 studies meeting our selection criteria. 3 broad interventions were identified: dietary modifications, physical activity and community-based health promotion measures on tobacco and alcohol cessation. 3 studies reported significant reduction in blood pressure (BP), and another study reported statistically significant reduction in mean total cholesterol. Other outcome measures observed ranged from mild to no reduction in BP, blood glucose, body mass index and total cholesterol, respectively. Conclusions We cannot specify with all certainty contextually feasible interventions that can be effective in modifying IHD risk factors in population groups across sSA. We recommend more research on IHD, particularly on the understanding of the burden, geared towards developing and/or strengthening preventive and treatment interventions for the disease in sSA. PMID:27381212

Ethics of treatment interruption trials in HIV cure research: addressing the conundrum of risk/benefit assessment

PubMed Central

Henderson, Gail E; Peay, Holly L; Kroon, Eugene; Cadigan, Rosemary Jean; Meagher, Karen; Jupimai, Thidarat; Gilbertson, Adam; Fisher, Jill; Ormsby, Nuchanart Q; Chomchey, Nitiya; Phanuphak, Nittaya; Ananworanich, Jintanat; Rennie, Stuart

2018-01-01

Though antiretroviral therapy is the standard of care for people living with HIV, its treatment limitations, burdens, stigma and costs lead to continued interest in HIV cure research. Early-phase cure trials, particularly those that include analytic treatment interruption (ATI), involve uncertain and potentially high risk, with minimal chance of clinical benefit. Some question whether such trials should be offered, given the risk/benefit imbalance, and whether those who choose to participate are acting rationally. We address these questions through a longitudinal decision-making study nested in a Thai acute HIV research cohort. In-depth interviews revealed central themes about decisions to join. Participants felt they possessed an important identity as members of the acute cohort, viewing their bodies as uniquely suited to both testing and potentially benefiting from HIV cure approaches. While acknowledging risks of ATI, most perceived they were given an opportunity to interrupt treatment, to test their own bodies and increase normalcy in a safe, highly monitored circumstance. They were motivated by potential benefits to themselves, the investigators and larger acute cohort, and others with HIV. They believed their own trial experiences and being able to give back to the community were sufficient to offset participation risks. These decisions were driven by the specific circumstances experienced by our participants. Judging risk/benefit ratios without appreciating these lived experiences can lead to false determinations of irrational decision- making. While this does not minimise vital oversight considerations about risk reduction and protection from harm, it argues for inclusion of a more participant-centered approach. PMID:29127137

Work in multiple jobs and the risk of injury in the US working population.

PubMed

Marucci-Wellman, Helen R; Willetts, Joanna L; Lin, Tin-Chi; Brennan, Melanye J; Verma, Santosh K

2014-01-01

We compared the risk of injury for multiple job holders (MJHs) with that for single job holders (SJHs). We used information from the National Health Interview Survey for the years 1997 through 2011 to estimate the rate of multiple job holding in the United States and compared characteristics and rates of self-reported injury (work and nonwork) for SJHs versus MJHs. Approximately 8.4% of those employed reported working more than 1 job in the week before the interview. The rate of work and nonwork injury episodes per 100 employed workers was higher for MJHs than for SJHs (4.2; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.5, 4.8; vs 3.3; 95% CI = 3.1, 3.5 work injuries and 9.9; 95% CI = 8.9, 10.9; vs 7.4; 95% CI = 7.1, 7.6 nonwork injuries per 100 workers, respectively). When calculated per 100 full-time equivalents (P < .05), the rate ratio remained higher for MJHs. Our findings suggest that working in multiple jobs is associated with an increased risk of an injury, both at work and not at work, and should be considered in injury surveillance.

Associated Risk Factors of STIs and Multiple Sexual Relationships among Youths in Malawi

PubMed Central

N, Wilson Chialepeh; A, Sathiyasusuman

2015-01-01

Background Having unprotected sex with multiple sexual partners (MSP) is the greatest risk factor for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among youths. Young people with MSPs are less likely to use a condom and the greater the risk for STIs. This study examines the associated risk factors of STIs and multiple sexual partnerships among youths aged 15–24 years. Data and Methods The Malawi Demographic Health Survey 2010 data was used. Out of a sample of 2,987 males and 9,559 females aged 15–24 years, 2,026 males and 6,470 females were considered in the study. Chi square test and logistic regression techniques were performed. Analysis was performed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 22. Findings The results indicate that 1,399 (69.0%) males and 2,290 (35.4%) females reported multiple sexual partnerships (MSP). Within the rural area, females (n = 1779) were more likely to report MSP than males (n = 1082) and within the urban areas, a higher proportion of females (n = 511) still reported MSP, with males (n = 316). About 78% rural females aged 20–24 years, and about 79% rural males aged 15–19 years reported MSP. The likelihood of MSP was higher among females in the poorest households (OR = 1.31), being married (OR = 5.71) and Catholic males (OR = 1.63), who were married (OR = 1.59). Catholic males (OR = 1.82) in the rural areas, who were married (OR = 1.80) and rural females in the northern region (OR = 1.26) were more likely to have MSP. The odds ratios were higher among urban females in the poorest (OR = 3.45) households who were married (OR = 4.22). Conclusions Having more than one sexual partner increases the risk of STIs and sexuality education programs should be introduced that emphasize the danger that surrounds MSP. PMID:26248328

The impact of multiple blood donations on the risk of cardiovascular diseases: Insight of lipid profile.

PubMed

Bani-Ahmad, M A; Khabour, O F; Gharibeh, M Y; Alshlool, K N

2017-11-01

The reduction in blood viscosity and iron store were proposed to be connected to the reduction in the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among multiple blood donors. Herein, we evaluated the modulation of serum lipids levels in accordance with donation events. Furthermore, atherogenic impacts on the risk of CVD were investigated. A total of 100 voluntarily male donors were included in the study. Fifty donors were multiple time donors (MTD) and 50 were single time donors (STD). Levels of serum lipids were determined and atherogenic indices including TG/HDL and CHO/HDL ratios were calculated. QRISK2 parameters were determined to evaluate the 10-years risk of developing CVD. Among MTD, there were significantly higher serum levels of triglycerides (TG) and very low-density lipoproteins (VLDL) combined with significantly lower HDL level. These modulations were significantly correlated to the extent of donation. Both CHO/HDL and TG/HDL ratios were also significantly higher among MTD. However, only TG/HDL ratio was strongly correlated to the donation extent even when controlled for age, BMI and smoking status. Despite the significant difference in QRISK2 parameters between study groups, none of these parameters was correlated to the extent of donation when controlling for age, BMI and smoking status. We demonstrate that multiple blood donation is associated with an unfavorable modulation of serum levels of lipids that is influenced by donation extent. This modulation is not associated with an increased risk of CVD but may weakly contribute in a higher risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

The risks and costs of multiple-generic substitution of topiramate.

PubMed

Duh, M S; Paradis, P E; Latrémouille-Viau, D; Greenberg, P E; Lee, S P; Durkin, M B; Wan, G J; Rupnow, M F T; LeLorier, J

2009-06-16

To investigate clinical and economic consequences following generic substitution of one vs multiple generics of topiramate (Topamax; Ortho-McNeil Neurologics, Titusville, NJ). Medical and pharmacy claims data of Régie de l'Assurance-Maladie du Québec from January 2006 to October 2007 were used. Patients with epilepsy treated with topiramate were selected. An open-cohort design was used to classify the observation period into periods of brand, single-generic, and multiple-generic use. One-year generic-switch and switchback-to-brand rates were estimated using Kaplan-Meier methodology. Medical resource utilization and costs were compared among the three periods using multivariate regression analysis. In total, 948 patients were observed during 1,105 person-years of brand use, 233 person-years of single-generic use, and 92 person-years of multiple-generic use. A total of 23% of generic users received at least two different generic versions. Compared to brand use, multiple-generic use was associated with higher utilization of other prescription drugs (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.24-1.31), higher hospitalization rates (0.48 vs 0.83 visit/person-year, IRR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.28-2.13), and longer hospital stays (2.6 vs 3.9 days/person-year, IRR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.27-1.60), but the effect was less pronounced in single-generic use (hospitalization: IRR = 1.08, 95% CI = 0.88-1.34, length of stay: IRR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.03-1.23). The risk of head injury or fracture was nearly three times higher (hazard ratio = 2.84, 95% CI = 1.24-6.48) following a generic-to-generic switch compared to brand use. The total annualized health care cost per patient was higher in the multiple-generic than brand periods by C$1,716 (cost ratio = 1.21, p = 0.0420). Multiple-generic substitution of topiramate was significantly associated with negative outcomes, such as hospitalizations and injuries, and increased health care costs.

Multiple Intravenous Infusions Phase 1b

PubMed Central

Cassano-Piché, A; Fan, M; Sabovitch, S; Masino, C; Easty, AC

2012-01-01

issues are known in advance, and the frequency of errors is too low to be observed in the time allotted and with the limited sample of observations. Conclusions The administration of multiple IV infusions to a single patient is a complex task with many potential associated patient safety risks. Improvements to infusion and infusion-related technology, education standards, clinical best practice guidelines, hospital policies, and unit work practices are required to reduce the risk potential. This report makes several recommendations to Ontario hospitals so that they can develop an awareness of the issues highlighted in this report and minimize some of the risks. Further investigation of mitigating strategies is required and will be undertaken in Phase 2 of this research. Plain Language Summary Patients, particularly in critical care environments, often require multiple intravenous (IV) medications via large volumetric or syringe infusion pumps. The infusion of multiple IV medications is not without risk; unintended errors during these complex procedures have resulted in patient harm. However, the range of associated risks and the factors contributing to these risks are not well understood. Health Quality Ontario’s Ontario Health Technology Advisory Committee commissioned the Health Technology Safety Research Team at the University Health Network to conduct a multi-phase study to identify and mitigate the risks associated with multiple IV infusions. Some of the questions addressed by the team were as follows: What is needed to reduce the risk of errors for individuals who are receiving a lot of medications? What strategies work best? The initial report, Multiple Intravenous Infusions Phase 1a: Situation Scan Summary Report, summarizes the interim findings based on a literature review, an incident database review, and a technology scan. The Health Technology Safety Research Team worked in close collaboration with the Institute for Safe Medication Practices Canada on an

The Effects of Gain- versus Loss-Framed Messages Following Health Risk Information on Physical Activity in Individuals With Multiple Sclerosis.

PubMed

Lithopoulos, Alexander; Bassett-Gunter, Rebecca L; Martin Ginis, Kathleen A; Latimer-Cheung, Amy E

2017-06-01

Few people with multiple sclerosis engage in physical activity. Messaging interventions may motivate more physical activity among these individuals. The purpose of this online study was to evaluate an intervention presenting participants with multiple sclerosis (N = 237) with risk information (i.e., information demonstrating people with multiple sclerosis are more likely to experience certain health issues) or no risk information followed by gain- or loss-framed physical activity messages. Participants completed questionnaires on Days 1, 6, and 28 and received information material on Days 2-5. The dependent variables were as follows: physical activity intentions and behavior, response and task efficacy, perceived threat (i.e., perception of threat to health issues relevant to people with multiple sclerosis), and avoidance (i.e., avoiding thinking about/doing something about the health issues presented in the messages). Analyses indicated physical activity and response efficacy increased over time. Also, participants receiving risk information had higher levels of physical activity and perceived threat. However, manipulation checks showed no differences between participants regarding perceptions of risk information or gain/loss-framed messages. Despite the lack of impact of the framing intervention, this study suggests that a brief informational intervention can positively influence physical activity and certain correlates of physical activity among people with multiple sclerosis.

A Self-Determination Multiple Risk Intervention Trial to Improve Smokers' Health

PubMed Central

Williams, Geoffrey C; McGregor, Holly; Sharp, Daryl; Kouides, Ruth W; Lévesque, Chantal S; Ryan, Richard M; Deci, Edward L

2006-01-01

BACKGROUND Little is known about how interventions motivate individuals to change multiple health risk behaviors. Self-determination theory (SDT) proposes that patient autonomy is an essential factor for motivating change. OBJECTIVE An SDT-based intervention to enhance autonomous motivation for tobacco abstinence and improving cholesterol was tested. DESIGN The Smokers' Health Study is a randomized multiple risk behavior change intervention trial. SETTING Smokers were recruited to a tobacco treatment center. PATIENTS A total of 1,006 adult smokers were recruited between 1999 and 2002 from physician offices and by newspaper advertisements. INTERVENTIONS A 6-month clinical intervention (4 contacts) to facilitate internalization of autonomy and perceived competence for tobacco abstinence and reduced percent calories from fat was compared with community care. Clinicians elicited patient perspectives and life strivings, provided absolute coronary artery disease risk estimates, enumerated effective treatment options, supported patient initiatives, minimized clinician control, assessed motivation for change, and developed a plan for change. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Twelve-month prolonged tobacco abstinence, and change in percent calories from fat and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) from baseline to 18 months. RESULTS Intention to treat analyses revealed that the intervention significantly increased 12-month prolonged tobacco abstinence (6.2% vs 2.4%; odds ratio [OR]=2.7, P=.01, number needed to treat [NNT]=26), and reduced LDL-C (−8.9 vs −4.1 mg/dL; P=.05). There was no effect on percent calories from fat. CONCLUSIONS An intervention focused on supporting smokers' autonomy was effective in increasing prolonged tobacco abstinence and lowering LDL-C. Clinical interventions for behavior change may be improved by increasing patient autonomy and perceived competence. PMID:16995893

Making assessments while taking repeated risks: a pattern of multiple response pathways.

PubMed

Pleskac, Timothy J; Wershbale, Avishai

2014-02-01

Beyond simply a decision process, repeated risky decisions also require a number of cognitive processes including learning, search and exploration, and attention. In this article, we examine how multiple response pathways develop over repeated risky decisions. Using the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) as a case study, we show that 2 different response pathways emerge over the course of the task. The assessment pathway is a slower, more controlled pathway where participants deliberate over taking a risk. The 2nd pathway is a faster, more automatic process where no deliberation occurs. Results imply the slower assessment pathway is taken as choice conflict increases and that the faster automatic response is a learned response. Based on these results, we modify an existing formal cognitive model of decision making during the BART to account for these dual response pathways. The slower more deliberative response process is modeled with a sequential sampling process where evidence is accumulated to a threshold, while the other response is given automatically. We show that adolescents with conduct disorder and substance use disorder symptoms not only evaluate risks differently during the BART but also differ in the rate at which they develop the more automatic response. More broadly, our results suggest cognitive models of judgment decision making need to transition from treating observed decisions as the result of a single response pathway to the result of multiple response pathways that change and develop over time.

EPA Workshop on Epigenetics and Cumulative Risk ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Agenda Download the Workshop Agenda (PDF) The workshop included presentations and discussions by scientific experts pertaining to three topics (i.e., epigenetic changes associated with diverse stressors, key science considerations in understanding epigenetic changes, and practical application of epigenetic tools to address cumulative risks from environmental stressors), to address several questions under each topic, and included an opportunity for attendees to participate in break-out groups, provide comments and ask questions. Workshop Goals The workshop seeks to examine the opportunity for use of aggregate epigenetic change as an indicator in cumulative risk assessment for populations exposed to multiple stressors that affect epigenetic status. Epigenetic changes are specific molecular changes around DNA that alter expression of genes. Epigenetic changes include DNA methylation, formation of histone adducts, and changes in micro RNAs. Research today indicates that epigenetic changes are involved in many chronic diseases (cancer, cardiovascular disease, obesity, diabetes, mental health disorders, and asthma). Research has also linked a wide range of stressors including pollution and social factors with occurrence of epigenetic alterations. Epigenetic changes have the potential to reflect impacts of risk factors across multiple stages of life. Only recently receiving attention is the nexus between the factors of cumulative exposure to environmental

Estimating and controlling workplace risk: an approach for occupational hygiene and safety professionals.

PubMed

Toffel, Michael W; Birkner, Lawrence R

2002-07-01

The protection of people and physical assets is the objective of health and safety professionals and is accomplished through the paradigm of anticipation, recognition, evaluation, and control of risks in the occupational environment. Risk assessment concepts are not only used by health and safety professionals, but also by business and financial planners. Since meeting health and safety objectives requires financial resources provided by business and governmental managers, the hypothesis addressed here is that health and safety risk decisions should be made with probabilistic processes used in financial decision-making and which are familiar and recognizable to business and government planners and managers. This article develops the processes and demonstrates the use of incident probabilities, historic outcome information, and incremental impact analysis to estimate risk of multiple alternatives in the chemical process industry. It also analyzes how the ethical aspects of decision-making can be addressed in formulating health and safety risk management plans. It is concluded that certain, easily understood, and applied probabilistic risk assessment methods used by business and government to assess financial and outcome risk have applicability to improving workplace health and safety in three ways: 1) by linking the business and health and safety risk assessment processes to securing resources, 2) by providing an additional set of tools for health and safety risk assessment, and 3) by requiring the risk assessor to consider multiple risk management alternatives.

Multiple Human Papillomavirus Infection Is Associated with High-Risk Infection in Male Genital Warts in Ulsan, Korea

PubMed Central

Moon, Kyung Hyun; Yang, Sung-Hak; Roh, Min Cheol; Lee, Sang Hoon; Kim, Je Won; Kim, In Kyu; Roh, Kyoung Ho

2016-01-01

Further understanding of male human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is necessary to prevent infection in men, as well as transmission to women. In our current study, we investigated patterns of HPV infection and genotype distributions in male genital warts using the Anyplex II HPV28 Detection kit. We reviewed the medical records of 80 male patients who presented to 5 neighborhood clinics in Ulsan, Korea, for the treatment of genital warts between April 2014 and January 2015. All patients underwent HPV genotyping. The prevalence and characteristics of HPV infection were analyzed, and the patterns of HPV infection according to age were assessed. Among the study patients, 13 (16.3%) were negative for HPV infection, 46 (57.3%) were infected with low-risk HPV, and 21 (26.3%) were infected with high-risk HPV. Patients with multiple HPV infection were more likely to have high-risk HPV infection (P = 0.001). The prevalence of HPV infection was much higher in samples obtained by tissue excision due to a definite lesion (P = 0.001). There were no differences in high-risk HPV infection (P = 0.459), multiple HPV infection (P = 0.185), and recurrence at diagnosis (P = 0.178) according to age. HPV-6 and HPV-11 were the most common type overall (39.7% and 13.8%, respectively). HPV-16 and HPV-18 were the most common high-risk infections (both 3.4%). HPV infection is not only commonly encountered in male genital warts, but is also accompanied by high-risk HPV and multiple infections. PMID:26955236

Multiple Human Papillomavirus Infection Is Associated with High-Risk Infection in Male Genital Warts in Ulsan, Korea.

PubMed

Kwon, Taekmin; Moon, Kyung Hyun; Yang, Sung-Hak; Roh, Min Cheol; Lee, Sang Hoon; Kim, Je Won; Kim, In Kyu; Roh, Kyoung Ho; Park, Sungchan

2016-03-01

Further understanding of male human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is necessary to prevent infection in men, as well as transmission to women. In our current study, we investigated patterns of HPV infection and genotype distributions in male genital warts using the Anyplex II HPV28 Detection kit. We reviewed the medical records of 80 male patients who presented to 5 neighborhood clinics in Ulsan, Korea, for the treatment of genital warts between April 2014 and January 2015. All patients underwent HPV genotyping. The prevalence and characteristics of HPV infection were analyzed, and the patterns of HPV infection according to age were assessed. Among the study patients, 13 (16.3%) were negative for HPV infection, 46 (57.3%) were infected with low-risk HPV, and 21 (26.3%) were infected with high-risk HPV. Patients with multiple HPV infection were more likely to have high-risk HPV infection (P = 0.001). The prevalence of HPV infection was much higher in samples obtained by tissue excision due to a definite lesion (P = 0.001). There were no differences in high-risk HPV infection (P = 0.459), multiple HPV infection (P = 0.185), and recurrence at diagnosis (P = 0.178) according to age. HPV-6 and HPV-11 were the most common type overall (39.7% and 13.8%, respectively). HPV-16 and HPV-18 were the most common high-risk infections (both 3.4%). HPV infection is not only commonly encountered in male genital warts, but is also accompanied by high-risk HPV and multiple infections.

Risks and risk governance in unconventional shale gas development.

PubMed

Small, Mitchell J; Stern, Paul C; Bomberg, Elizabeth; Christopherson, Susan M; Goldstein, Bernard D; Israel, Andrei L; Jackson, Robert B; Krupnick, Alan; Mauter, Meagan S; Nash, Jennifer; North, D Warner; Olmstead, Sheila M; Prakash, Aseem; Rabe, Barry; Richardson, Nathan; Tierney, Susan; Webler, Thomas; Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Zielinska, Barbara

2014-01-01

A broad assessment is provided of the current state of knowledge regarding the risks associated with shale gas development and their governance. For the principal domains of risk, we identify observed and potential hazards and promising mitigation options to address them, characterizing current knowledge and research needs. Important unresolved research questions are identified for each area of risk; however, certain domains exhibit especially acute deficits of knowledge and attention, including integrated studies of public health, ecosystems, air quality, socioeconomic impacts on communities, and climate change. For these, current research and analysis are insufficient to either confirm or preclude important impacts. The rapidly evolving landscape of shale gas governance in the U.S. is also assessed, noting challenges and opportunities associated with the current decentralized (state-focused) system of regulation. We briefly review emerging approaches to shale gas governance in other nations, and consider new governance initiatives and options in the U.S. involving voluntary industry certification, comprehensive development plans, financial instruments, and possible future federal roles. In order to encompass the multiple relevant disciplines, address the complexities of the evolving shale gas system and reduce the many key uncertainties needed for improved management, a coordinated multiagency federal research effort will need to be implemented.

WISEWOMAN: addressing the needs of women at high risk for cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Vaid, Isam; Wigington, Charles; Borbely, Deborah; Ferry, Patricia; Manheim, Diane

2011-07-01

In the United States, the cardiovascular health of women is affected by the disparate impact of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) on many minority ethnic and racial groups. Women with low income also endure a disproportionate impact of the burden of CVD. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) Well-Integrated Screening and Evaluation for Women Across the Nation (WISEWOMAN) Program was authorized by Congress in 1993 to extend the preventive health services offered to participants of the National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program (NBCCEDP). These are low-income, uninsured, and underinsured women. The intent was to expand services of an existing federal program to address cardiovascular health concerns in this vulnerable, high-risk population. CDC funds 19 state health departments and 2 tribal organizations (both in Alaska) to implement WISEWOMAN. In the first 2 years of the current 5-year funding cycle, which began in June 2008, the WISEWOMAN grantees succeeded in providing almost 78,000 screenings, of which 46% were to women of minority racial and ethnic groups. The individual successes are important, and the WISEWOMAN Program also has achieved success in the broader arenas of healthcare and the communities in which WISEWOMAN is implemented. WISEWOMAN impacts clinical systems of care, provider education, physician extenders, and the broader community and will continue to play an important role in connecting low-income, uninsured, and underinsured women with clinical systems of care and other community resources that will result in the prevention, treatment, and management of their CVD risk.

A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-04-01

The assessment of climate change related risks is notoriously difficult due to the complex and uncertain combinations of hazardous events that might happen, the multiplicity of physical processes involved, the continuous changes and interactions of environmental and socio-economic systems. One important challenge lies in predicting and modelling cascades of natural and man -made hazard events which can be triggered by climate change, encompassing different spatial and temporal scales. Another regard the potentially difficult integration of environmental, social and economic disciplines in the multi-risk concept. Finally, the effective interaction between scientists and stakeholders is essential to ensure that multi-risk knowledge is translated into efficient adaptation and management strategies. The assessment is even more complex at the scale of deltaic systems which are particularly vulnerable to global environmental changes, due to the fragile equilibrium between the presence of valuable natural ecosystems and relevant economic activities. Improving our capacity to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surges, reduction in sediment load, local subsidence, saltwater intrusion) is therefore essential to identify timely opportunities for adaptation. A holistic multi-risk approach is here proposed to integrate terminology, metrics and methodologies from different research fields (i.e. environmental, social and economic sciences) thus creating shared knowledge areas to advance multi risk assessment and management in delta regions. A first testing of the approach, including the application of Bayesian network analysis for the assessment of impacts of climate change on key natural systems (e.g. wetlands, protected areas, beaches) and socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture, tourism), is applied in the Po river delta in Northern Italy. The approach is based on a bottom-up process involving local stakeholders early in different

Early alveolar and systemic mediator release in patients at different risks for ARDS after multiple trauma.

PubMed

Raymondos, Konstantinos; Martin, Michael U; Schmudlach, Tanja; Baus, Stefan; Weilbach, Christian; Welte, Tobias; Krettek, Christian; Frink, Michael; Hildebrand, Frank

2012-02-01

Alveolar IL-8 has been reported to early identify patients at-risk to develop ARDS. However, it remains unknown how alveolar IL-8 is related to pulmonary and systemic inflammation in patients predisposed for ARDS. We studied 24 patients 2-6h after multiple trauma. Patients with IL-8 >200 pg/ml in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) were assigned to the group at high risk for ARDS (H, n = 8) and patients with BAL IL-8 <200 pg/ml to the group at low risk for ARDS (L, n = 16). ARDS developed within 24h after trauma in 5 patients at high and at least after 1 week in 2 patients at low risk for ARDS (p = 0.003). High-risk patients had also increased BAL IL-6, TNF-α, IL-1β, IL-10 and IL-1ra levels (p<0.05). BAL neutrophil counts did not differ between patient groups (H vs. L, 12% (3-73%) vs. 6% (2-32%), p = 0.1) but correlated significantly with BAL IL-8, IL-6 and IL-1ra. High-risk patients had increased plasma levels of pro- but not anti-inflammatory mediators. The enhanced alveolar and systemic inflammation associated with alveolar IL-8 release should be considered to identify high-risk patients for pulmonary complications after multiple trauma to adjust surgical and other treatment strategies to the individual risk profile. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Impact of Five VDR Polymorphisms on Multiple Sclerosis Risk and Progression: a Case-Control and Genotype-Phenotype Study.

PubMed

Křenek, Pavel; Benešová, Yvonne; Bienertová-Vašků, Julie; Vašků, Anna

2018-04-01

Vitamin D receptor polymorphisms have been the target of many studies focusing on multiple sclerosis. However, previously reported results have been inconclusive. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between five vitamin D receptor polymorphisms (EcoRV, FokI, ApaI, TaqI, and BsmI) and multiple sclerosis susceptibility and its course. The study was carried out as a case-control and genotype-phenotype study, consisted of 296 Czech multiple sclerosis patients and 135 healthy controls. Genotyping was carried out using polymerase chain reaction and restriction analysis. In multiple sclerosis men, allele and/or genotype distributions differed in EcoRV, TaqI, BsmI, and ApaI polymorphisms as compared to controls (EcoRV, p a = 0.02; Taq, p g = 0.02, p a = 0.02; BsmI, p g = 0.02, p a = 0.04; ApaI, p g = 0.008, p a = 0.005). In multiple sclerosis women, differences in the frequency of alleles and genotypes were found to be significant in ApaI (controls vs multiple sclerosis women: p g = 0.01, p a = 0.05). Conclusive results were observed between multiple sclerosis women in the case of EcoRV [differences in Expanded Disability Status Scale (p = 0.05); CT genotype was found to increase the risk of primary progressive multiple sclerosis 5.5 times (CT vs CC+TT p corr = 0.01, sensitivity 0.833, specificity 0.525, power test 0.823)] and FokI [borderline difference in Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (p = 0.05)]. Our results indicate that the distribution of investigated vitamin D receptor polymorphisms is a risk factor for multiple sclerosis susceptibility and progression in the Czech population. The association between disease risk and polymorphisms was found to be stronger in men. The association of disease progression with polymorphisms was observed only in women.

Acceptability of delivery of dietary advice in the dentistry setting to address obesity in pre-school children: a case study of the Common Risk Factor Approach.

PubMed

Henderson, Emily J

2015-07-01

The Common Risk Factor Approach proposes that public health efforts can be improved by multiple agencies working together on a shared risk factor. The present study aimed to assess the acceptability to parents, dental practice staff and commissioners of the delivery of dietary advice in the dentistry setting in order to address obesity. Semi-structured focus groups with dental practice staff and one-to-one interviews with parents of pre-school children and public health commissioners involved in an oral health promotion initiative delivering dietary advice in dental surgeries. Data were analysed using the Framework Approach. General dental practice surgeries and pre-schools in areas of high deprivation in north-east England. Parents (n 4), dental practice staff (n 23) and one commissioner. All participants found acceptable the concept of delivering public health messages in non-conventional settings. Dental practice staff were concerned about the potential for conflicting messages and deprioritisation of oral health advice, and they identified practical barriers to delivery, such as lack of training. Parents were very apprehensive about the potential of such approaches to stigmatise overweight children, including bullying. Uncertainty over the causes of obesity led to confusion about its solutions and the roles of public health and health care. Major concerns about the implementation of the Common Risk Factor Approach were raised by parents and dental practice staff. Specific dietary guidance for both oral health and healthy weight, as well as further research into issues of suitability, feasibility and stigmatisation, are needed.

Genetic risk and a primary role for cell-mediated immune mechanisms in multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Sawcer, Stephen; Hellenthal, Garrett; Pirinen, Matti; Spencer, Chris C A; Patsopoulos, Nikolaos A; Moutsianas, Loukas; Dilthey, Alexander; Su, Zhan; Freeman, Colin; Hunt, Sarah E; Edkins, Sarah; Gray, Emma; Booth, David R; Potter, Simon C; Goris, An; Band, Gavin; Oturai, Annette Bang; Strange, Amy; Saarela, Janna; Bellenguez, Céline; Fontaine, Bertrand; Gillman, Matthew; Hemmer, Bernhard; Gwilliam, Rhian; Zipp, Frauke; Jayakumar, Alagurevathi; Martin, Roland; Leslie, Stephen; Hawkins, Stanley; Giannoulatou, Eleni; D'alfonso, Sandra; Blackburn, Hannah; Martinelli Boneschi, Filippo; Liddle, Jennifer; Harbo, Hanne F; Perez, Marc L; Spurkland, Anne; Waller, Matthew J; Mycko, Marcin P; Ricketts, Michelle; Comabella, Manuel; Hammond, Naomi; Kockum, Ingrid; McCann, Owen T; Ban, Maria; Whittaker, Pamela; Kemppinen, Anu; Weston, Paul; Hawkins, Clive; Widaa, Sara; Zajicek, John; Dronov, Serge; Robertson, Neil; Bumpstead, Suzannah J; Barcellos, Lisa F; Ravindrarajah, Rathi; Abraham, Roby; Alfredsson, Lars; Ardlie, Kristin; Aubin, Cristin; Baker, Amie; Baker, Katharine; Baranzini, Sergio E; Bergamaschi, Laura; Bergamaschi, Roberto; Bernstein, Allan; Berthele, Achim; Boggild, Mike; Bradfield, Jonathan P; Brassat, David; Broadley, Simon A; Buck, Dorothea; Butzkueven, Helmut; Capra, Ruggero; Carroll, William M; Cavalla, Paola; Celius, Elisabeth G; Cepok, Sabine; Chiavacci, Rosetta; Clerget-Darpoux, Françoise; Clysters, Katleen; Comi, Giancarlo; Cossburn, Mark; Cournu-Rebeix, Isabelle; Cox, Mathew B; Cozen, Wendy; Cree, Bruce A C; Cross, Anne H; Cusi, Daniele; Daly, Mark J; Davis, Emma; de Bakker, Paul I W; Debouverie, Marc; D'hooghe, Marie Beatrice; Dixon, Katherine; Dobosi, Rita; Dubois, Bénédicte; Ellinghaus, David; Elovaara, Irina; Esposito, Federica; Fontenille, Claire; Foote, Simon; Franke, Andre; Galimberti, Daniela; Ghezzi, Angelo; Glessner, Joseph; Gomez, Refujia; Gout, Olivier; Graham, Colin; Grant, Struan F A; Guerini, Franca Rosa; Hakonarson, Hakon; Hall, Per; Hamsten, Anders; Hartung, Hans-Peter; Heard, Rob N; Heath, Simon; Hobart, Jeremy; Hoshi, Muna; Infante-Duarte, Carmen; Ingram, Gillian; Ingram, Wendy; Islam, Talat; Jagodic, Maja; Kabesch, Michael; Kermode, Allan G; Kilpatrick, Trevor J; Kim, Cecilia; Klopp, Norman; Koivisto, Keijo; Larsson, Malin; Lathrop, Mark; Lechner-Scott, Jeannette S; Leone, Maurizio A; Leppä, Virpi; Liljedahl, Ulrika; Bomfim, Izaura Lima; Lincoln, Robin R; Link, Jenny; Liu, Jianjun; Lorentzen, Aslaug R; Lupoli, Sara; Macciardi, Fabio; Mack, Thomas; Marriott, Mark; Martinelli, Vittorio; Mason, Deborah; McCauley, Jacob L; Mentch, Frank; Mero, Inger-Lise; Mihalova, Tania; Montalban, Xavier; Mottershead, John; Myhr, Kjell-Morten; Naldi, Paola; Ollier, William; Page, Alison; Palotie, Aarno; Pelletier, Jean; Piccio, Laura; Pickersgill, Trevor; Piehl, Fredrik; Pobywajlo, Susan; Quach, Hong L; Ramsay, Patricia P; Reunanen, Mauri; Reynolds, Richard; Rioux, John D; Rodegher, Mariaemma; Roesner, Sabine; Rubio, Justin P; Rückert, Ina-Maria; Salvetti, Marco; Salvi, Erika; Santaniello, Adam; Schaefer, Catherine A; Schreiber, Stefan; Schulze, Christian; Scott, Rodney J; Sellebjerg, Finn; Selmaj, Krzysztof W; Sexton, David; Shen, Ling; Simms-Acuna, Brigid; Skidmore, Sheila; Sleiman, Patrick M A; Smestad, Cathrine; Sørensen, Per Soelberg; Søndergaard, Helle Bach; Stankovich, Jim; Strange, Richard C; Sulonen, Anna-Maija; Sundqvist, Emilie; Syvänen, Ann-Christine; Taddeo, Francesca; Taylor, Bruce; Blackwell, Jenefer M; Tienari, Pentti; Bramon, Elvira; Tourbah, Ayman; Brown, Matthew A; Tronczynska, Ewa; Casas, Juan P; Tubridy, Niall; Corvin, Aiden; Vickery, Jane; Jankowski, Janusz; Villoslada, Pablo; Markus, Hugh S; Wang, Kai; Mathew, Christopher G; Wason, James; Palmer, Colin N A; Wichmann, H-Erich; Plomin, Robert; Willoughby, Ernest; Rautanen, Anna; Winkelmann, Juliane; Wittig, Michael; Trembath, Richard C; Yaouanq, Jacqueline; Viswanathan, Ananth C; Zhang, Haitao; Wood, Nicholas W; Zuvich, Rebecca; Deloukas, Panos; Langford, Cordelia; Duncanson, Audrey; Oksenberg, Jorge R; Pericak-Vance, Margaret A; Haines, Jonathan L; Olsson, Tomas; Hillert, Jan; Ivinson, Adrian J; De Jager, Philip L; Peltonen, Leena; Stewart, Graeme J; Hafler, David A; Hauser, Stephen L; McVean, Gil; Donnelly, Peter; Compston, Alastair

2011-08-10

Multiple sclerosis is a common disease of the central nervous system in which the interplay between inflammatory and neurodegenerative processes typically results in intermittent neurological disturbance followed by progressive accumulation of disability. Epidemiological studies have shown that genetic factors are primarily responsible for the substantially increased frequency of the disease seen in the relatives of affected individuals, and systematic attempts to identify linkage in multiplex families have confirmed that variation within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) exerts the greatest individual effect on risk. Modestly powered genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have enabled more than 20 additional risk loci to be identified and have shown that multiple variants exerting modest individual effects have a key role in disease susceptibility. Most of the genetic architecture underlying susceptibility to the disease remains to be defined and is anticipated to require the analysis of sample sizes that are beyond the numbers currently available to individual research groups. In a collaborative GWAS involving 9,772 cases of European descent collected by 23 research groups working in 15 different countries, we have replicated almost all of the previously suggested associations and identified at least a further 29 novel susceptibility loci. Within the MHC we have refined the identity of the HLA-DRB1 risk alleles and confirmed that variation in the HLA-A gene underlies the independent protective effect attributable to the class I region. Immunologically relevant genes are significantly overrepresented among those mapping close to the identified loci and particularly implicate T-helper-cell differentiation in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis.

High- and low-risk profiles for the development of multiple sclerosis within 10 years after optic neuritis: experience of the optic neuritis treatment trial.

PubMed

Beck, Roy W; Trobe, Jonathan D; Moke, Pamela S; Gal, Robin L; Xing, Dongyuan; Bhatti, M Tariq; Brodsky, Michael C; Buckley, Edward G; Chrousos, Georgia A; Corbett, James; Eggenberger, Eric; Goodwin, James A; Katz, Barrett; Kaufman, David I; Keltner, John L; Kupersmith, Mark J; Miller, Neil R; Nazarian, Sarkis; Orengo-Nania, Silvia; Savino, Peter J; Shults, William T; Smith, Craig H; Wall, Michael

2003-07-01

To identify factors associated with a high and low risk of developing multiple sclerosis after an initial episode of optic neuritis. Three hundred eighty-eight patients who experienced acute optic neuritis between July 1, 1988, and June 30, 1991, were followed up prospectively for the development of multiple sclerosis. Consenting patients were reassessed after 10 to 13 years. The 10-year risk of multiple sclerosis was 38% (95% confidence interval, 33%-43%). Patients (160) who had 1 or more typical lesions on the baseline magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan of the brain had a 56% risk; those with no lesions (191) had a 22% risk (P<.001, log rank test). Among the patients who had no lesions on MRI, male gender and optic disc swelling were associated with a lower risk of multiple sclerosis, as was the presence of the following atypical features for optic neuritis: no light perception vision; absence of pain; and ophthalmoscopic findings of severe optic disc edema, peripapillary hemorrhages, or retinal exudates. The 10-year risk of multiple sclerosis following an initial episode of acute optic neuritis is significantly higher if there is a single brain MRI lesion; higher numbers of lesions do not appreciably increase that risk. However, even when brain lesions are seen on MRI, more than 40% of the patients will not develop clinical multiple sclerosis after 10 years. In the absence of MRI lesions, certain demographic and clinical features seem to predict a very low likelihood of developing multiple sclerosis. This natural history information is a critical input for estimating a patient's 10-year multiple sclerosis risk and for weighing the benefit of initiating prophylactic treatment at the time of optic neuritis or other initial demyelinating events in the central nervous system.

A case-control study of risk factors for multiple sclerosis in Iran.

PubMed

Alonso, Alvaro; Cook, Stuart D; Maghzi, Amir-Hadi; Divani, Afshin A

2011-05-01

Numerous studies have assessed risk factors for multiple sclerosis (MS), although none have been conducted previously in Iran. The objective of this study was to study lifestyle and environmental risk factors of MS in the Iranian population. A case-control study, including 394 MS cases and 394 matched controls, was conducted in MS clinics in different Iranian cities. Information on lifestyles, environmental exposures, and past medical history was obtained from medical charts and phone interviews. In multivariable analysis, sunlight exposure was associated with a lower risk of MS: the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of MS associated with a 1-h increment in daily sunlight was 0.62 (0.53-0.73). Smoking was associated with MS risk in women (OR: 6.48, 95% CI: 1.46-28.78), but not in men (OR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.31-1.68) (p=0.002 for interaction). Finally, past history of common surgical procedures, infectious disorders, or exposure to pets and farm animals was not associated with MS risk. Different modifiable lifestyles, including sunlight exposure and smoking, were associated with lower MS risk in Iran. Interventions aimed at promoting smoking cessation and, more importantly, at increasing exposure to sunlight might contribute to the prevention of MS.

Effects of Comprehensive, Multiple High-Risk Behaviors Prevention Program on High School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Collier, Crystal

2013-01-01

The purpose of this mixed methods study was to examine the effect of a multiple high-risk behaviors prevention program applied comprehensively throughout an entire school-system involving universal, selective, and indicated levels of students at a local private high school during a 4-year period. The prevention program was created based upon the…

Genetic risk variants in African Americans with multiple sclerosis

PubMed Central

Isobe, Noriko; Gourraud, Pierre-Antoine; Harbo, Hanne F.; Caillier, Stacy J.; Santaniello, Adam; Khankhanian, Pouya; Maiers, Martin; Spellman, Stephen; Cereb, Nezih; Yang, SooYoung; Pando, Marcelo J.; Piccio, Laura; Cross, Anne H.; De Jager, Philip L.; Cree, Bruce A.C.; Hauser, Stephen L.

2013-01-01

Objectives: To assess the association of established multiple sclerosis (MS) risk variants in 3,254 African Americans (1,162 cases and 2,092 controls). Methods: Human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DRB1, HLA-DQB1, and HLA-A alleles were typed by molecular techniques. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping was conducted for 76 MS-associated SNPs and 52 ancestry informative marker SNPs selected throughout the genome. Self-declared ancestry was refined by principal component analysis of the ancestry informative marker SNPs. An ancestry-adjusted multivariate model was applied to assess genetic associations. Results: The following major histocompatibility complex risk alleles were replicated: HLA-DRB1*15:01 (odds ratio [OR] = 2.02 [95% confidence interval: 1.54–2.63], p = 2.50e-07), HLA-DRB1*03:01 (OR = 1.58 [1.29–1.94], p = 1.11e-05), as well as HLA-DRB1*04:05 (OR = 2.35 [1.26–4.37], p = 0.007) and the African-specific risk allele of HLA-DRB1*15:03 (OR = 1.26 [1.05–1.51], p = 0.012). The protective association of HLA-A*02:01 was confirmed (OR = 0.72 [0.55–0.93], p = 0.013). None of the HLA-DQB1 alleles were associated with MS. Using a significance threshold of p < 0.01, outside the major histocompatibility complex region, 8 MS SNPs were also found to be associated with MS in African Americans. Conclusion: MS genetic risk in African Americans only partially overlaps with that of Europeans and could explain the difference of MS prevalence between populations. PMID:23771490

Interventions addressing risk factors of ischaemic heart disease in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review.

PubMed

Ebireri, Jennifer; Aderemi, Adewale V; Omoregbe, Nicholas; Adeloye, Davies

2016-07-05

Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is currently ranked eighth among the leading causes of deaths in sub-Saharan Africa (sSA). Yet, effective population-wide preventive measures targeting risks in the region are still largely unavailable. We aimed to review population-wide and individual-level interventions addressing risk factors of IHD among adults in sSA. A systematic search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health and AJOL was conducted to identify studies focusing on population-wide and individual-level interventions targeting risks of IHD among adults in sSA. We conducted a detailed synthesis of basic findings of selected studies. A total of 2311 studies were identified, with only 9 studies meeting our selection criteria. 3 broad interventions were identified: dietary modifications, physical activity and community-based health promotion measures on tobacco and alcohol cessation. 3 studies reported significant reduction in blood pressure (BP), and another study reported statistically significant reduction in mean total cholesterol. Other outcome measures observed ranged from mild to no reduction in BP, blood glucose, body mass index and total cholesterol, respectively. We cannot specify with all certainty contextually feasible interventions that can be effective in modifying IHD risk factors in population groups across sSA. We recommend more research on IHD, particularly on the understanding of the burden, geared towards developing and/or strengthening preventive and treatment interventions for the disease in sSA. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Integrating human health and ecological concerns in risk assessments.

PubMed

Cirone, P A; Bruce Duncan, P

2000-11-03

The interconnections between ecosystems, human health and welfare have been increasingly recognized by the US government, academia, and the public. This paper continues this theme by addressing the use of risk assessment to integrate people into a single assessment. In a broad overview of the risk assessment process we stress the need to build a conceptual model of the whole system including multiple species (humans and other ecological entities), stressors, and cumulative effects. We also propose converging landscape ecology and evaluation of ecosystem services with risk assessment to address these cumulative responses. We first look at how this integration can occur within the problem formulation step in risk assessment where the system is defined, a conceptual model created, a subset of components and functions selected, and the analytical framework decided in a context that includes the management decisions. A variety of examples of problem formulations (salmon, wild insects, hyporheic ecosystems, ultraviolet (UV) radiation, nitrogen fertilization, toxic chemicals, and oil spills) are presented to illustrate how treating humans as components of the landscape can add value to risk assessments. We conclude that the risk assessment process should help address the urgent needs of society in proportion to importance, to provide a format to communicate knowledge and understanding, and to inform policy and management decisions.

A Multiple Risk Factors Model of the Development of Aggression among Early Adolescents from Urban Disadvantaged Neighborhoods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Sangwon; Orpinas, Pamela; Kamphaus, Randy; Kelder, Steven H.

2011-01-01

This study empirically derived a multiple risk factors model of the development of aggression among middle school students in urban, low-income neighborhoods, using Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM). Results indicated that aggression increased from sixth to eighth grade. Additionally, the influences of four risk domains (individual, family,…

Work in Multiple Jobs and the Risk of Injury in the US Working Population

PubMed Central

Willetts, Joanna L.; Lin, Tin-Chi; Brennan, Melanye J.; Verma, Santosh K.

2014-01-01

Objectives. We compared the risk of injury for multiple job holders (MJHs) with that for single job holders (SJHs). Methods. We used information from the National Health Interview Survey for the years 1997 through 2011 to estimate the rate of multiple job holding in the United States and compared characteristics and rates of self-reported injury (work and nonwork) for SJHs versus MJHs. Results. Approximately 8.4% of those employed reported working more than 1 job in the week before the interview. The rate of work and nonwork injury episodes per 100 employed workers was higher for MJHs than for SJHs (4.2; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.5, 4.8; vs 3.3; 95% CI = 3.1, 3.5 work injuries and 9.9; 95% CI = 8.9, 10.9; vs 7.4; 95% CI = 7.1, 7.6 nonwork injuries per 100 workers, respectively). When calculated per 100 full-time equivalents (P < .05), the rate ratio remained higher for MJHs. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that working in multiple jobs is associated with an increased risk of an injury, both at work and not at work, and should be considered in injury surveillance. PMID:24228681

Negative Affect and HIV Risk in Alcohol and Other Drug (AOD) Abusing Adolescent Offenders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lucenko, Barbara A.; Malow, Robert M.; Sanchez-Martinez, Mario; Jennings, Terri; Devieux, Jessy G.

2003-01-01

Various depressive symptoms have been linked to elevated levels of HIV risk across diverse adult populations in multiple studies. However, this link has been examined in a much more limited manner among adolescents, despite an exceedingly heightened risk of both HIV and negative affect in this age group. To address the current lack of clinically…

Management and Outcomes Among Chinese Hospitalized Patients With Established Cardiovascular Disease or Multiple Risk Factors.

PubMed

Yang, Jingang; Yang, Yuejin; Gu, Hongqiu; Li, Wei; Hu, Dayi

2016-02-01

We assessed the management and outcomes among hospitalized patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), stroke, peripheral artery disease (PAD), or with multiple (≥ 2) cardiovascular (CV) risk factors (multiple risk factors [MRFs]). We retrospectively studied 3732 hospitalized patients of either CV disease or ≥ 2 risk factors for atherothrombosis from October 2004 to January 2005. Outcomes included CV death, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and hospitalization for atherothrombotic events. About one-third had disease involving ≥ 1 vascular bed. Medication was more intense in patients with CAD than in others. The lowest use of statins and antiplatelet treatment was in the PAD-only group. Patients with PAD experienced a higher CV mortality (5.1%) than the patients with CAD (3.73%) or stroke (4.1%), P < .001. Cardiovascular death ranged from 1.2% for patients with MRFs, 2.8% for patients with 1-bed disease, 4.7% for patients with 2-bed disease to 6.4% for patients with 3-bed disease (P for trend <.001). For hospitalized patients with established atherosclerotic arterial disease, a substantial increase in CV event rates occurs with increasing numbers of affected arterial beds. Patients with PAD were at an especially high risk. © The Author(s) 2015.

Immunomodulatory drugs and the risk of serious infection in multiple myeloma: systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized and observational studies.

PubMed

Chen, Min; Zhao, Yongfeng; Xu, Chuanxin; Wang, Xian; Zhang, Xianping; Mao, Benyu

2018-06-01

The effect of immunomodulatory drugs (IMiDs) on serious infection remains uncertain. We therefore conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the possible impact of IMiDs on serious infection in patients with multiple myeloma (MM). We searched randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies from databases that addressed the effect of IMiDs on serious infection in patients with MM. We pooled data from RCTs and observational studies separately and used the GRADE approach to rate the quality of evidence. Rates in patients with individual IMiDs at different treatment status ranged from 7.00 to 23.00%. The use of thalidomide- or lenalidomide-based regimen induction therapy for autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT)-ineligible patients suggests increase in serious infection (RR = 1.59, 95% CI 1.31-1.93, p < 0.01). Compared to conventional therapy, IMiDs' induction in ASCT-eligible patients significantly decreases the risk of serious infection (RR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.72-0.94, p < 0.01). Lenalidomide-based therapy was associated with a significant increase in risk of serious infection in patients treated compared with conventional therapy (RR = 2.45, 95% CI 1.57-3.83, p < 0.01). The current evidence suggests that patients with MM treated with IMiDs are at a high risk of serious infection.

The association between multiple sources of information and risk perceptions of tuberculosis, Ntcheu district, Malawi.

PubMed

Chizimba, Robert; Christofides, Nicola; Chirwa, Tobias; Singini, Isaac; Ozumba, Chineme; Sikwese, Simon; Banda, Hastings T; Banda, Rhoda; Chimbali, Henry; Ngwira, Bagrey; Munthali, Alister; Nyasulu, Peter

2015-01-01

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the main causes of death in developing countries. Awareness and perception of risk of TB could influence early detection, diagnosis and care seeking at treatment centers. However, perceptions about TB are influenced by sources of information. This study aimed to determine the association between multiple sources of information, and perceptions of risk of TB among adults aged 18-49 years. A cross-sectional study was conducted in Ntcheu district in Malawi. A total of 121 adults were sampled in a three-stage simple random sampling technique. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire. Perceptions of risk were measured using specific statements that reflected common myths and misconceptions. Low risk perception implied a person having strong belief in myths and misconceptions about TB and high risk perception meant a person having no belief in myths or misconceptions and demonstrated understanding of the disease. Females were more likely to have low risk perceptions about TB compared to males (67.7% vs. 32.5%, p = 0.01). The higher the household asset index the more likely an individual had higher risk perceptions about TB (p = 0.006). The perception of risk of TB was associated with sources of information (p = 0.03). Use of both interpersonal communication and mass media was 2.8 times more likely to be associated with increased perception of risk of TB (Odds Ratio [OR] = 2.8; 95% Confidence interva1[CI]: 3.1-15. 6; p = 0.01). After adjusting for sex and asset ownership, use of interpersonal communication and mass media were more likely to be associated with higher perception of risk of TB (OR, 2.0; 95% CI: 1.65-10.72; p = 0.003) compared with interpersonal communication only (OR 1.6, 95%; CI: 1.13-8.98, p = 0.027). The study found that there was association between multiple sources of information, and higher perceptions of risk of TB among adults aged 18-49 years.

Periprosthetic joint infection: are patients with multiple prosthetic joints at risk?

PubMed

Jafari, S Mehdi; Casper, David S; Restrepo, Camilo; Zmistowski, Benjamin; Parvizi, Javad; Sharkey, Peter F

2012-06-01

Patients who present with a periprosthetic joint infection in a single joint may have multiple prosthetic joints. The risk of these patients developing a subsequent infection in another prosthetic joint is unknown. Our purposes were (1) to identify the risk of developing a subsequent infection in another prosthetic joint and (2) to describe the time span and organism profile to the second prosthetic infection. We retrospectively identified 55 patients with periprosthetic joint infection who had another prosthetic joint in place at the time of presentation. Of the 55 patients, 11 (20%) developed a periprosthetic joint infection in a second joint. The type of organism was the same as the first infection in 4 (36%) of 11 patients. The time to developing a second infection averaged 2.0 years (range, 0-6.9 years). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Address-based versus random-digit-dial surveys: comparison of key health and risk indicators.

PubMed

Link, Michael W; Battaglia, Michael P; Frankel, Martin R; Osborn, Larry; Mokdad, Ali H

2006-11-15

Use of random-digit dialing (RDD) for conducting health surveys is increasingly problematic because of declining participation rates and eroding frame coverage. Alternative survey modes and sampling frames may improve response rates and increase the validity of survey estimates. In a 2005 pilot study conducted in six states as part of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, the authors administered a mail survey to selected household members sampled from addresses in a US Postal Service database. The authors compared estimates based on data from the completed mail surveys (n = 3,010) with those from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System telephone surveys (n = 18,780). The mail survey data appeared reasonably complete, and estimates based on data from the two survey modes were largely equivalent. Differences found, such as differences in the estimated prevalences of binge drinking (mail = 20.3%, telephone = 13.1%) or behaviors linked to human immunodeficiency virus transmission (mail = 7.1%, telephone = 4.2%), were consistent with previous research showing that, for questions about sensitive behaviors, self-administered surveys generally produce higher estimates than interviewer-administered surveys. The mail survey also provided access to cell-phone-only households and households without telephones, which cannot be reached by means of standard RDD surveys.

Cardiovascular risk factors are associated with increased lesion burden and brain atrophy in multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Kappus, Natalie; Weinstock-Guttman, Bianca; Hagemeier, Jesper; Kennedy, Cheryl; Melia, Rebecca; Carl, Ellen; Ramasamy, Deepa P; Cherneva, Mariya; Durfee, Jacqueline; Bergsland, Niels; Dwyer, Michael G; Kolb, Channa; Hojnacki, David; Ramanathan, Murali; Zivadinov, Robert

2016-02-01

Cardiovascular (CV) risk factors have been associated with changes in clinical outcomes in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). To investigate the frequency of CV risks in patients with MS and their association with MRI outcomes. In a prospective study, 326 patients with relapsing-remitting MS and 163 patients with progressive MS, 61 patients with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) and 175 healthy controls (HCs) were screened for CV risks and scanned on a 3T MRI scanner. Examined CV risks included hypertension, heart disease, smoking, overweight/obesity and type 1 diabetes. MRI measures assessed lesion volumes (LVs) and brain atrophy. Association between individual or multiple CV risks and MRI outcomes was examined adjusting for age, sex, race, disease duration and treatment status. Patients with MS showed increased frequency of smoking (51.7% vs 36.5%, p = 0.001) and hypertension (33.9% vs 24.7%, p=0.035) compared with HCs. In total, 49.9% of patients with MS and 36% of HCs showed ≥ 2 CV risks (p = 0.003), while the frequency of ≥ 3 CV risks was 18.8% in the MS group and 8.6% in the HCs group (p = 0.002). In patients with MS, hypertension and heart disease were associated with decreased grey matter (GM) and cortical volumes (p < 0.05), while overweight/obesity was associated with increased T1-LV (p < 0.39) and smoking with decreased whole brain volume (p = 0.049). Increased lateral ventricle volume was associated with heart disease (p = 0.029) in CIS. Patients with MS with one or more CV risks showed increased lesion burden and more advanced brain atrophy. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Genetic risk and a primary role for cell-mediated immune mechanisms in multiple sclerosis

PubMed Central

Sawcer, Stephen; Hellenthal, Garrett; Pirinen, Matti; Spencer, Chris C.A.; Patsopoulos, Nikolaos A.; Moutsianas, Loukas; Dilthey, Alexander; Su, Zhan; Freeman, Colin; Hunt, Sarah E.; Edkins, Sarah; Gray, Emma; Booth, David R.; Potter, Simon C.; Goris, An; Band, Gavin; Oturai, Annette Bang; Strange, Amy; Saarela, Janna; Bellenguez, Céline; Fontaine, Bertrand; Gillman, Matthew; Hemmer, Bernhard; Gwilliam, Rhian; Zipp, Frauke; Jayakumar, Alagurevathi; Martin, Roland; Leslie, Stephen; Hawkins, Stanley; Giannoulatou, Eleni; D’alfonso, Sandra; Blackburn, Hannah; Boneschi, Filippo Martinelli; Liddle, Jennifer; Harbo, Hanne F.; Perez, Marc L.; Spurkland, Anne; Waller, Matthew J; Mycko, Marcin P.; Ricketts, Michelle; Comabella, Manuel; Hammond, Naomi; Kockum, Ingrid; McCann, Owen T.; Ban, Maria; Whittaker, Pamela; Kemppinen, Anu; Weston, Paul; Hawkins, Clive; Widaa, Sara; Zajicek, John; Dronov, Serge; Robertson, Neil; Bumpstead, Suzannah J.; Barcellos, Lisa F.; Ravindrarajah, Rathi; Abraham, Roby; Alfredsson, Lars; Ardlie, Kristin; Aubin, Cristin; Baker, Amie; Baker, Katharine; Baranzini, Sergio E.; Bergamaschi, Laura; Bergamaschi, Roberto; Bernstein, Allan; Berthele, Achim; Boggild, Mike; Bradfield, Jonathan P.; Brassat, David; Broadley, Simon A.; Buck, Dorothea; Butzkueven, Helmut; Capra, Ruggero; Carroll, William M.; Cavalla, Paola; Celius, Elisabeth G.; Cepok, Sabine; Chiavacci, Rosetta; Clerget-Darpoux, Françoise; Clysters, Katleen; Comi, Giancarlo; Cossburn, Mark; Cournu-Rebeix, Isabelle; Cox, Mathew B.; Cozen, Wendy; Cree, Bruce A.C.; Cross, Anne H.; Cusi, Daniele; Daly, Mark J.; Davis, Emma; de Bakker, Paul I.W.; Debouverie, Marc; D’hooghe, Marie Beatrice; Dixon, Katherine; Dobosi, Rita; Dubois, Bénédicte; Ellinghaus, David; Elovaara, Irina; Esposito, Federica; Fontenille, Claire; Foote, Simon; Franke, Andre; Galimberti, Daniela; Ghezzi, Angelo; Glessner, Joseph; Gomez, Refujia; Gout, Olivier; Graham, Colin; Grant, Struan F.A.; Guerini, Franca Rosa; Hakonarson, Hakon; Hall, Per; Hamsten, Anders; Hartung, Hans-Peter; Heard, Rob N.; Heath, Simon; Hobart, Jeremy; Hoshi, Muna; Infante-Duarte, Carmen; Ingram, Gillian; Ingram, Wendy; Islam, Talat; Jagodic, Maja; Kabesch, Michael; Kermode, Allan G.; Kilpatrick, Trevor J.; Kim, Cecilia; Klopp, Norman; Koivisto, Keijo; Larsson, Malin; Lathrop, Mark; Lechner-Scott, Jeannette S.; Leone, Maurizio A.; Leppä, Virpi; Liljedahl, Ulrika; Bomfim, Izaura Lima; Lincoln, Robin R.; Link, Jenny; Liu, Jianjun; Lorentzen, Åslaug R.; Lupoli, Sara; Macciardi, Fabio; Mack, Thomas; Marriott, Mark; Martinelli, Vittorio; Mason, Deborah; McCauley, Jacob L.; Mentch, Frank; Mero, Inger-Lise; Mihalova, Tania; Montalban, Xavier; Mottershead, John; Myhr, Kjell-Morten; Naldi, Paola; Ollier, William; Page, Alison; Palotie, Aarno; Pelletier, Jean; Piccio, Laura; Pickersgill, Trevor; Piehl, Fredrik; Pobywajlo, Susan; Quach, Hong L.; Ramsay, Patricia P.; Reunanen, Mauri; Reynolds, Richard; Rioux, John D.; Rodegher, Mariaemma; Roesner, Sabine; Rubio, Justin P.; Rückert, Ina-Maria; Salvetti, Marco; Salvi, Erika; Santaniello, Adam; Schaefer, Catherine A.; Schreiber, Stefan; Schulze, Christian; Scott, Rodney J.; Sellebjerg, Finn; Selmaj, Krzysztof W.; Sexton, David; Shen, Ling; Simms-Acuna, Brigid; Skidmore, Sheila; Sleiman, Patrick M.A.; Smestad, Cathrine; Sørensen, Per Soelberg; Søndergaard, Helle Bach; Stankovich, Jim; Strange, Richard C.; Sulonen, Anna-Maija; Sundqvist, Emilie; Syvänen, Ann-Christine; Taddeo, Francesca; Taylor, Bruce; Blackwell, Jenefer M.; Tienari, Pentti; Bramon, Elvira; Tourbah, Ayman; Brown, Matthew A.; Tronczynska, Ewa; Casas, Juan P.; Tubridy, Niall; Corvin, Aiden; Vickery, Jane; Jankowski, Janusz; Villoslada, Pablo; Markus, Hugh S.; Wang, Kai; Mathew, Christopher G.; Wason, James; Palmer, Colin N.A.; Wichmann, H-Erich; Plomin, Robert; Willoughby, Ernest; Rautanen, Anna; Winkelmann, Juliane; Wittig, Michael; Trembath, Richard C.; Yaouanq, Jacqueline; Viswanathan, Ananth C.; Zhang, Haitao; Wood, Nicholas W.; Zuvich, Rebecca; Deloukas, Panos; Langford, Cordelia; Duncanson, Audrey; Oksenberg, Jorge R.; Pericak-Vance, Margaret A.; Haines, Jonathan L.; Olsson, Tomas; Hillert, Jan; Ivinson, Adrian J.; De Jager, Philip L.; Peltonen, Leena; Stewart, Graeme J.; Hafler, David A.; Hauser, Stephen L.; McVean, Gil; Donnelly, Peter; Compston, Alastair

2011-01-01

Multiple sclerosis (OMIM 126200) is a common disease of the central nervous system in which the interplay between inflammatory and neurodegenerative processes typically results in intermittent neurological disturbance followed by progressive accumulation of disability.1 Epidemiological studies have shown that genetic factors are primarily responsible for the substantially increased frequency of the disease seen in the relatives of affected individuals;2,3 and systematic attempts to identify linkage in multiplex families have confirmed that variation within the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) exerts the greatest individual effect on risk.4 Modestly powered Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS)5-10 have enabled more than 20 additional risk loci to be identified and have shown that multiple variants exerting modest individual effects play a key role in disease susceptibility.11 Most of the genetic architecture underlying susceptibility to the disease remains to be defined and is anticipated to require the analysis of sample sizes that are beyond the numbers currently available to individual research groups. In a collaborative GWAS involving 9772 cases of European descent collected by 23 research groups working in 15 different countries, we have replicated almost all of the previously suggested associations and identified at least a further 29 novel susceptibility loci. Within the MHC we have refined the identity of the DRB1 risk alleles and confirmed that variation in the HLA-A gene underlies the independent protective effect attributable to the Class I region. Immunologically relevant genes are significantly over-represented amongst those mapping close to the identified loci and particularly implicate T helper cell differentiation in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis. PMID:21833088

Ethics of treatment interruption trials in HIV cure research: addressing the conundrum of risk/benefit assessment.

PubMed

Henderson, Gail E; Peay, Holly L; Kroon, Eugene; Cadigan, Rosemary Jean; Meagher, Karen; Jupimai, Thidarat; Gilbertson, Adam; Fisher, Jill; Ormsby, Nuchanart Q; Chomchey, Nitiya; Phanuphak, Nittaya; Ananworanich, Jintanat; Rennie, Stuart

2018-04-01

Though antiretroviral therapy is the standard of care for people living with HIV, its treatment limitations, burdens, stigma and costs lead to continued interest in HIV cure research. Early-phase cure trials, particularly those that include analytic treatment interruption (ATI), involve uncertain and potentially high risk, with minimal chance of clinical benefit. Some question whether such trials should be offered, given the risk/benefit imbalance, and whether those who choose to participate are acting rationally. We address these questions through a longitudinal decision-making study nested in a Thai acute HIV research cohort.In-depth interviews revealed central themes about decisions to join. Participants felt they possessed an important identity as members of the acute cohort, viewing their bodies as uniquely suited to both testing and potentially benefiting from HIV cure approaches. While acknowledging risks of ATI, most perceived they were given an opportunity to interrupt treatment, to test their own bodies and increase normalcy in a safe, highly monitored circumstance. They were motivated by potential benefits to themselves, the investigators and larger acute cohort, and others with HIV. They believed their own trial experiences and being able to give back to the community were sufficient to offset participation risks.These decisions were driven by the specific circumstances experienced by our participants. Judging risk/benefit ratios without appreciating these lived experiences can lead to false determinations of irrational decision- making. While this does not minimise vital oversight considerations about risk reduction and protection from harm, it argues for inclusion of a more participant-centered approach. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Methodology to identify risk-significant components for inservice inspection and testing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, M.T.; Hartley, R.S.; Jones, J.L. Jr.

1992-08-01

Periodic inspection and testing of vital system components should be performed to ensure the safe and reliable operation of Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear processing facilities. Probabilistic techniques may be used to help identify and rank components by their relative risk. A risk-based ranking would allow varied DOE sites to implement inspection and testing programs in an effective and cost-efficient manner. This report describes a methodology that can be used to rank components, while addressing multiple risk issues.

Determination of osteoporosis risk factors using a multiple logistic regression model in postmenopausal Turkish women.

PubMed

Akkus, Zeki; Camdeviren, Handan; Celik, Fatma; Gur, Ali; Nas, Kemal

2005-09-01

To determine the risk factors of osteoporosis using a multiple binary logistic regression method and to assess the risk variables for osteoporosis, which is a major and growing health problem in many countries. We presented a case-control study, consisting of 126 postmenopausal healthy women as control group and 225 postmenopausal osteoporotic women as the case group. The study was carried out in the Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, Dicle University, Diyarbakir, Turkey between 1999-2002. The data from the 351 participants were collected using a standard questionnaire that contains 43 variables. A multiple logistic regression model was then used to evaluate the data and to find the best regression model. We classified 80.1% (281/351) of the participants using the regression model. Furthermore, the specificity value of the model was 67% (84/126) of the control group while the sensitivity value was 88% (197/225) of the case group. We found the distribution of residual values standardized for final model to be exponential using the Kolmogorow-Smirnow test (p=0.193). The receiver operating characteristic curve was found successful to predict patients with risk for osteoporosis. This study suggests that low levels of dietary calcium intake, physical activity, education, and longer duration of menopause are independent predictors of the risk of low bone density in our population. Adequate dietary calcium intake in combination with maintaining a daily physical activity, increasing educational level, decreasing birth rate, and duration of breast-feeding may contribute to healthy bones and play a role in practical prevention of osteoporosis in Southeast Anatolia. In addition, the findings of the present study indicate that the use of multivariate statistical method as a multiple logistic regression in osteoporosis, which maybe influenced by many variables, is better than univariate statistical evaluation.

Balancing the benefits and risks of public-private partnerships to address the global double burden of malnutrition.

PubMed

Kraak, Vivica I; Harrigan, Paige B; Lawrence, Mark; Harrison, Paul J; Jackson, Michaela A; Swinburn, Boyd

2012-03-01

Transnational food, beverage and restaurant companies, and their corporate foundations, may be potential collaborators to help address complex public health nutrition challenges. While UN system guidelines are available for private-sector engagement, non-governmental organizations (NGO) have limited guidelines to navigate diverse opportunities and challenges presented by partnering with these companies through public-private partnerships (PPP) to address the global double burden of malnutrition. We conducted a search of electronic databases, UN system websites and grey literature to identify resources about partnerships used to address the global double burden of malnutrition. A narrative summary provides a synthesis of the interdisciplinary literature identified. We describe partnership opportunities, benefits and challenges; and tools and approaches to help NGO engage with the private sector to address global public health nutrition challenges. PPP benefits include: raising the visibility of nutrition and health on policy agendas; mobilizing funds and advocating for research; strengthening food-system processes and delivery systems; facilitating technology transfer; and expanding access to medications, vaccines, healthy food and beverage products, and nutrition assistance during humanitarian crises. PPP challenges include: balancing private commercial interests with public health interests; managing conflicts of interest; ensuring that co-branded activities support healthy products and healthy eating environments; complying with ethical codes of conduct; assessing partnership compatibility; and evaluating partnership outcomes. NGO should adopt a systematic and transparent approach using available tools and processes to maximize benefits and minimize risks of partnering with transnational food, beverage and restaurant companies to effectively target the global double burden of malnutrition.

Population heterogeneity in the salience of multiple risk factors for adolescent delinquency.

PubMed

Lanza, Stephanie T; Cooper, Brittany R; Bray, Bethany C

2014-03-01

To present mixture regression analysis as an alternative to more standard regression analysis for predicting adolescent delinquency. We demonstrate how mixture regression analysis allows for the identification of population subgroups defined by the salience of multiple risk factors. We identified population subgroups (i.e., latent classes) of individuals based on their coefficients in a regression model predicting adolescent delinquency from eight previously established risk indices drawn from the community, school, family, peer, and individual levels. The study included N = 37,763 10th-grade adolescents who participated in the Communities That Care Youth Survey. Standard, zero-inflated, and mixture Poisson and negative binomial regression models were considered. Standard and mixture negative binomial regression models were selected as optimal. The five-class regression model was interpreted based on the class-specific regression coefficients, indicating that risk factors had varying salience across classes of adolescents. Standard regression showed that all risk factors were significantly associated with delinquency. Mixture regression provided more nuanced information, suggesting a unique set of risk factors that were salient for different subgroups of adolescents. Implications for the design of subgroup-specific interventions are discussed. Copyright © 2014 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The residues and environmental risks of multiple veterinary antibiotics in animal faeces.

PubMed

Li, Yan-Xia; Zhang, Xue-Lian; Li, Wei; Lu, Xiao-Fei; Liu, Bei; Wang, Jing

2013-03-01

To understand the residues and ecological risks of veterinary antibiotics (VAs) in animal faeces from concentrated animal feeding operations in northeastern China, 14 VAs were identified by high performance liquid chromatography, and the preliminary risks of six antibiotics were assessed using the hazard quotient (HQ). The investigated VAs occurred in 7.41 to 57.41 % of the 54 samples, and the levels ranged from 0.08 to 56.81 mg kg(-1). Tetracyclines were predominant with a maximum level of 56.81 mg kg(-1) mostly detected in pig faeces. Sulfonamides were common and detected with the highest concentration of 7.11 mg kg(-1). Fluoroquinolones were more widely detected in chicken faeces rather than in pig or cow faeces, which contained the dominant antibiotic enrofloxacin. In comparison, the residue of tylosin was less frequently found. The risk evaluations of the six antibiotics revealed that tetracyclines, especially oxytetracycline, displayed the greatest ecological risk because of its high HQ value of 15.75. The results of this study imply that multiple kinds of VAs were jointly used in animal feeding processes in the study area. These medicine residues in animal faeces may potentially bring ecological risks if the animal manure is not treated effectively.

Breast Cancer and Modifiable Lifestyle Factors in Argentinean Women: Addressing Missing Data in a Case-Control Study

PubMed Central

Coquet, Julia Becaria; Tumas, Natalia; Osella, Alberto Ruben; Tanzi, Matteo; Franco, Isabella; Diaz, Maria Del Pilar

2016-01-01

A number of studies have evidenced the effect of modifiable lifestyle factors such as diet, breastfeeding and nutritional status on breast cancer risk. However, none have addressed the missing data problem in nutritional epidemiologic research in South America. Missing data is a frequent problem in breast cancer studies and epidemiological settings in general. Estimates of effect obtained from these studies may be biased, if no appropriate method for handling missing data is applied. We performed Multiple Imputation for missing values on covariates in a breast cancer case-control study of Córdoba (Argentina) to optimize risk estimates. Data was obtained from a breast cancer case control study from 2008 to 2015 (318 cases, 526 controls). Complete case analysis and multiple imputation using chained equations were the methods applied to estimate the effects of a Traditional dietary pattern and other recognized factors associated with breast cancer. Physical activity and socioeconomic status were imputed. Logistic regression models were performed. When complete case analysis was performed only 31% of women were considered. Although a positive association of Traditional dietary pattern and breast cancer was observed from both approaches (complete case analysis OR=1.3, 95%CI=1.0-1.7; multiple imputation OR=1.4, 95%CI=1.2-1.7), effects of other covariates, like BMI and breastfeeding, were only identified when multiple imputation was considered. A Traditional dietary pattern, BMI and breastfeeding are associated with the occurrence of breast cancer in this Argentinean population when multiple imputation is appropriately performed. Multiple Imputation is suggested in Latin America’s epidemiologic studies to optimize effect estimates in the future. PMID:27892664

Multiple risk behaviors and suicidal ideation and behavior among Israeli and Palestinian adolescents.

PubMed

Harel-Fisch, Yossi; Abdeen, Ziad; Walsh, Sophie D; Radwan, Qasrowi; Fogel-Grinvald, Haya

2012-07-01

Based conceptually on Problem Behavior Theory, Normalization Theory and theories of adolescent ethnic identity formation this study explores relationships between individual and cumulative multiple risk behaviors and suicidal ideation and behavior among mid-adolescents in three different populations in the Middle East. Data from the 2004 Health Behavior in School-Aged Children in the Middle-East (HBSC-ME) study included 8345 10th-grade pupils in three populations: Jewish Israelis (1770), Arab Israelis (2185), and Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank (4390). We considered risk behaviors and factors including tobacco use, bullying, medically-attended injuries, excessive time with friends, parental disconnectedness, negative school experience, truancy and poor academic performance. Substantial population differences for suicidal tendency and risk behaviors were observed, with notably high levels of suicidal ideation and behavior among Arab-Israeli youth and higher levels of risk behaviors among the Jewish and Arab-Israeli youth. For all populations suicidal tendency was at least 4 times higher among adolescents reporting 4+ risk behaviors, suggesting that similar psychosocial determinants affect patterns of risk behaviors and suicidal tendency. Results highlight the importance of understanding cultural contexts of risk behaviors and suicidal ideation and behavior. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing risk from a stakeholder perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, L. P.

2003-01-01

Planetary exploration missions are subject to a vast array of interpretations of 'success' based on the concerns of multiple stakeholder groups. While project risk management generally focuses on issues of cost/schedule constraints or reliability issues, a broader interpretation of 'risk' as it applies to stakeholders such as sponsors (e.g., NASA), the public at large, the scientific community, the home organization, and the project team itself can provide important insights into the full spectrum of risk that needs to be managed. This paper presents a stakeholder view of risk which is divided into failure, not-a-failure, success, and stunning-success zones. Using the Mars Pathfinder mission as an example, an alternative interpretation of the risks to that mission is presented from the view of key stakeholders. The implications of the stakeholder perspective to project risk management are addressed.

Multiple risk factors during pregnancy in South Africa: the need for a horizontal approach to perinatal care.

PubMed

Tomlinson, Mark; O'Connor, Mary J; le Roux, Ingrid M; Stewart, Jacqueline; Mbewu, Nokwanele; Harwood, Jessica; Rotheram-Borus, Mary Jane

2014-06-01

South African children's long-term health and well-being is jeopardized during their mothers' pregnancies by the intersecting epidemics of HIV, alcohol use, low birth weight (LBW; <2,500 g) related to poor nutrition, and depressed mood. This research examines these overlapping risk factors among 1,145 pregnant Xhosa women living in 24 township neighborhoods in Cape Town, South Africa. Results revealed that 66 % of pregnant women experienced at least one risk factor. In descending order of prevalence, 37 % reported depressed mood, 29 % were HIV+, 25 % used alcohol prior to knowing that they were pregnant, and 15 % had a previous childbirth with a LBW infant. Approximately 27 % of women had more than one risk factor: depressed mood was significantly associated with alcohol use and LBW, with a trend to significance with HIV+. In addition, alcohol use was significantly related to HIV+. These results suggest the importance of intervening across multiple risks to maternal and child health, and particularly with depression and alcohol use, to positively impact multiple maternal and infant outcomes.

Heme Oxygenase-1 and 2 Common Genetic Variants and Risk for Multiple Sclerosis

PubMed Central

Agúndez, José A. G.; García-Martín, Elena; Martínez, Carmen; Benito-León, Julián; Millán-Pascual, Jorge; Díaz-Sánchez, María; Calleja, Patricia; Pisa, Diana; Turpín-Fenoll , Laura; Alonso-Navarro, Hortensia; Pastor, Pau; Ortega-Cubero, Sara; Ayuso-Peralta, Lucía; Torrecillas, Dolores; García-Albea, Esteban; Plaza-Nieto, José Francisco; Jiménez-Jiménez, Félix Javier

2016-01-01

Several neurochemical, neuropathological, and experimental data suggest a possible role of oxidative stress in the ethiopathogenesis of multiple sclerosis(MS). Heme-oxygenases(HMOX) are an important defensive mechanism against oxidative stress, and HMOX1 is overexpressed in the brain and spinal cord of MS patients and in experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis(EAE). We analyzed whether common polymorphisms affecting the HMOX1 and HMOX2 genes are related with the risk to develop MS. We analyzed the distribution of genotypes and allelic frequencies of the HMOX1 rs2071746, HMOX1 rs2071747, HMOX2 rs2270363, and HMOX2 rs1051308 SNPs, as well as the presence of Copy number variations(CNVs) of these genes in 292 subjects MS and 533 healthy controls, using TaqMan assays. The frequencies of HMOX2 rs1051308AA genotype and HMOX2 rs1051308A and HMOX1 rs2071746A alleles were higher in MS patients than in controls, although only that of the SNP HMOX2 rs1051308 in men remained as significant after correction for multiple comparisons. None of the studied polymorphisms was related to the age at disease onset or with the MS phenotype. The present study suggests a weak association between HMOX2 rs1051308 polymorphism and the risk to develop MS in Spanish Caucasian men and a trend towards association between the HMOX1 rs2071746A and MS risk. PMID:26868429

Heme Oxygenase-1 and 2 Common Genetic Variants and Risk for Multiple Sclerosis.

PubMed

Agúndez, José A G; García-Martín, Elena; Martínez, Carmen; Benito-León, Julián; Millán-Pascual, Jorge; Díaz-Sánchez, María; Calleja, Patricia; Pisa, Diana; Turpín-Fenoll, Laura; Alonso-Navarro, Hortensia; Pastor, Pau; Ortega-Cubero, Sara; Ayuso-Peralta, Lucía; Torrecillas, Dolores; García-Albea, Esteban; Plaza-Nieto, José Francisco; Jiménez-Jiménez, Félix Javier

2016-02-12

Several neurochemical, neuropathological, and experimental data suggest a possible role of oxidative stress in the ethiopathogenesis of multiple sclerosis(MS). Heme-oxygenases(HMOX) are an important defensive mechanism against oxidative stress, and HMOX1 is overexpressed in the brain and spinal cord of MS patients and in experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis(EAE). We analyzed whether common polymorphisms affecting the HMOX1 and HMOX2 genes are related with the risk to develop MS. We analyzed the distribution of genotypes and allelic frequencies of the HMOX1 rs2071746, HMOX1 rs2071747, HMOX2 rs2270363, and HMOX2 rs1051308 SNPs, as well as the presence of Copy number variations(CNVs) of these genes in 292 subjects MS and 533 healthy controls, using TaqMan assays. The frequencies of HMOX2 rs1051308AA genotype and HMOX2 rs1051308A and HMOX1 rs2071746A alleles were higher in MS patients than in controls, although only that of the SNP HMOX2 rs1051308 in men remained as significant after correction for multiple comparisons. None of the studied polymorphisms was related to the age at disease onset or with the MS phenotype. The present study suggests a weak association between HMOX2 rs1051308 polymorphism and the risk to develop MS in Spanish Caucasian men and a trend towards association between the HMOX1 rs2071746A and MS risk.

Human Health Risk Implications of Multiple Sources of Faecal Indicator Bacteria in a Recreational Waterbody

EPA Science Inventory

We evaluate the influence of multiple sources of faecal indicator bacteria in recreational water bodies on potential human health risk by considering waters impacted by human and animal sources, human and non-pathogenic sources, and animal and non-pathogenic sources. We illustrat...

Promoting Healthy Outcomes Among Youth with Multiple Risks: Innovative Approaches

PubMed Central

Greenberg, Mark T.; Lippold, Melissa A.

2015-01-01

Adolescent behavior problems such as substance use, antisocial behavior problems, and mental health problems have extremely high social costs and lead to overburdened mental health and juvenile justice systems in the United States and Europe. The prevalence of these problems is substantial, and at-risk youth often present with a combination of concerns. An understanding of risk and protective factors at multiple levels, including the child, family, peer, school, and community, has influenced intervention development. At the individual and family levels, the most effective and cost-effective programs work intensively with youth and their families or use individual and group cognitive-behavioral approaches. However, there is a paucity of careful studies of effective policies and programs in the juvenile justice system. Research is needed that focuses on adoption, financing, implementation, and sustainable use of evidence-based programs in public service systems. In addition, the field needs to understand better for whom current programs are most effective to create the next generation of more effective and efficient programs. PMID:23297659

Synthesizing Risk from Summary Evidence Across Multiple Risk Factors.

PubMed

Shrier, Ian; Colditz, Graham A; Steele, Russell J

2018-07-01

Although meta-analyses provide summary effect estimates that help advise patient care, patients often want to compare their overall health to the general population. The Harvard Cancer Risk Index was published in 2004 and uses risk ratio estimates and prevalence estimates from original studies across many risk factors to provide an answer to this question. However, the published version of the formula only uses dichotomous risk factors and its derivation was not provided. The objective of this brief report was to provide the derivation of a more general form of the equation that allows the incorporation of risk factors with three or more levels.

Home-based exercise program and fall-risk reduction in older adults with multiple sclerosis: phase 1 randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Sosnoff, Jacob J; Finlayson, Marcia; McAuley, Edward; Morrison, Steve; Motl, Robert W

2014-03-01

To determine the feasibility, safety, and efficacy of a home-based exercise intervention targeting fall risk in older adults with multiple sclerosis. A randomized controlled pilot trial. A home-based exercise program. Participants were randomly allocated to either a home-based exercise intervention group (n = 13) or a waiting list control group (n = 14). The exercise group completed exercises targeting lower muscle strength and balance three times a week for 12 weeks. The control group continued normal activity. Fall risk (Physiological Profile Assessment scores), balance (Berg Balance Scale), and walking testing prior to and immediately following the 12-week intervention. Each outcome measure was placed in an analysis of covariance with group as the between-subject factor and baseline values as the covariate. Effect sizes were calculated. Twelve participants from the control group and ten from the exercise group completed the study. There were no related adverse events. Fall risk was found to decrease in the exercise group following the intervention (1.1 SD 1.0 vs. 0.6 SD 0.6) while there was an increase in fall risk in the control group (1.9 SD 1.5 vs. 2.2 SD 1.9). Effect sizes for most outcomes were large (η(2) > 0.15). Home-based exercise was found to be feasible, safe, and effective for reducing physiological fall risk in older adults with multiple sclerosis. Our findings support the implementation of a larger trial to reduce fall risk in persons with multiple sclerosis.

Gene expression profiling in multiple myeloma--reporting of entities, risk, and targets in clinical routine.

PubMed

Meissner, Tobias; Seckinger, Anja; Rème, Thierry; Hielscher, Thomas; Möhler, Thomas; Neben, Kai; Goldschmidt, Hartmut; Klein, Bernard; Hose, Dirk

2011-12-01

Multiple myeloma is an incurable malignant plasma cell disease characterized by survival ranging from several months to more than 15 years. Assessment of risk and underlying molecular heterogeneity can be excellently done by gene expression profiling (GEP), but its way into clinical routine is hampered by the lack of an appropriate reporting tool and the integration with other prognostic factors into a single "meta" risk stratification. The GEP-report (GEP-R) was built as an open-source software developed in R for gene expression reporting in clinical practice using Affymetrix microarrays. GEP-R processes new samples by applying a documentation-by-value strategy to the raw data to be able to assign thresholds and grouping algorithms defined on a reference cohort of 262 patients with multiple myeloma. Furthermore, we integrated expression-based and conventional prognostic factors within one risk stratification (HM-metascore). The GEP-R comprises (i) quality control, (ii) sample identity control, (iii) biologic classification, (iv) risk stratification, and (v) assessment of target genes. The resulting HM-metascore is defined as the sum over the weighted factors gene expression-based risk-assessment (UAMS-, IFM-score), proliferation, International Staging System (ISS) stage, t(4;14), and expression of prognostic target genes (AURKA, IGF1R) for which clinical grade inhibitors exist. The HM-score delineates three significantly different groups of 13.1%, 72.1%, and 14.7% of patients with a 6-year survival rate of 89.3%, 60.6%, and 18.6%, respectively. GEP reporting allows prospective assessment of risk and target gene expression and integration of current prognostic factors in clinical routine, being customizable about novel parameters or other cancer entities. ©2011 AACR.

Sex differences and HIV risk behaviors: the interaction between the experience of multiple types of abuse and self-restraint on HIV risk behaviors.

PubMed

Conrad, Selby M; Swenson, Rebecca R; Hancock, Evan; Brown, Larry K

2014-01-01

Adolescents with abuse histories have been shown to be at increased risk to acquire human immunodeficiency virus and sexually transmitted infections. In addition, teens with lower levels of self-restraint or higher levels of distress, such as those with psychiatric concerns, have also demonstrated increased sexual risk behaviors. This study explored sex differences in sexual risk behaviors among a sample of adolescents in a therapeutic/alternative high school setting. Moderated regression analysis showed that a lower level of self-restraint was associated with sexual risk behaviors in boys but not in girls. Rather, the interaction of self-restraint and multiple types of abuse was associated with greater sex risk within girls in this sample. Results suggest that girls and boys with abuse histories and low levels of self-restraint may have different intervention needs related to sexual risk behaviors.

Evaluating the multiple benefits of marine water quality improvements: how important are health risk reductions?

PubMed

Machado, Fernando S; Mourato, Susana

2002-07-01

Marine water pollution affects many recreational sites around the world. It has impacts not only on recreational activities but also on health risks for those who come into direct contact with the water. Few economic studies have explicitly considered the health risks of bathing in polluted marine waters and none have attempted to separate health benefits from other benefits of marine water quality improvements. This paper uses stated preference techniques to separately evaluate the multiple benefits of improving the quality of marine recreational waters at the Estoril Coast in Portugal. The results indicate that health risk reductions are only a small fraction of the total social benefits of water quality improvements.

Risky business: Addressing the consequences of predicting violence.

PubMed

Miller, Sarah L; Brodsky, Stanley L

2011-01-01

Despite major advances in the prediction of violence and risk management, risk evaluations are necessarily imperfect. This article focuses on the role of the evaluator in such assessments and addresses the consequences incurred by clinicians involved in conducting risk assessments. We discuss the risks of overpredicting and underpredicting violence with respect to how these risks can influence an evaluator's opinion. Then, we review how law and psychology inform the clinician's work. Finally, in response to the compelling tendency toward overprediction of violence, we propose a preliminary self-assessment guide as a method of examining influences on the evaluator in assessing violence risk.

[The Design Requirements for an E-Health Management Platform: Addressing the Needs of Adolescent Girls at High Risk of Metabolic Syndrome].

PubMed

Su, Mei-Chen; Chen, Wen-Chin; Liu, Chieh-Yu; Jou, Hei-Jen; Hsiao, Ya-Chu; Tsao, Lee-Ing

2015-10-01

The rising prevalence of metabolic syndrome among adolescents has not been effectively addressed by current campus-based health promotions. Using the Internet in these promotions may help health professionals achieve better healthcare management. The purpose of the present study was to explore the design requirements of an e-health management platform from the subjective perspective of adolescent girls who were at a high risk of metabolic syndrome. The findings may provide a reference for designing nursing interventions that more effectively promote healthly lifestyle habits to adolescents. This qualitative study employed a snowball approach and used a semi-structured interview guide to collect data. A total of 20 Taiwanese adolescent females who were at a high risk of metabolic syndrome, aged 16-20 years, able to speak Mandarin or Taiwanese, and willing to participate and to have their sessions tape-recorded were enrolled as participants and engaged individually in in-depth interviews. The constant comparative method was used to inductively analyze the interview data. Five main themes related to the e-health management platform emerged from the data. These themes included: an attractive and user-friendly website interface, access to reliable information and resources, provision of tailored health information, access to peer support, and self-monitoring and learning tools. The findings highlight the key design needs of an e-Health management platform from the perspective of adolescent girls who are at a high risk of metabolic syndrome. The identified themes may be addressed in future revisions / developments of these platforms in order to better address the needs of this vulnerable population and to effectively reduce the incidence of metabolic syndrome. The authors hope that the results of the present study may be used to provide better healthcare and support for adolescent girls with metabolic syndrome.

Selection of first-line therapy in multiple sclerosis using risk-benefit decision analysis.

PubMed

Bargiela, David; Bianchi, Matthew T; Westover, M Brandon; Chibnik, Lori B; Healy, Brian C; De Jager, Philip L; Xia, Zongqi

2017-02-14

To integrate long-term measures of disease-modifying drug efficacy and risk to guide selection of first-line treatment of multiple sclerosis. We created a Markov decision model to evaluate disability worsening and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) risk in patients receiving natalizumab (NTZ), fingolimod (FGL), or glatiramer acetate (GA) over 30 years. Leveraging publicly available data, we integrated treatment utility, disability worsening, and risk of PML into quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). We performed sensitivity analyses varying PML risk, mortality and morbidity, and relative risk of disease worsening across clinically relevant ranges. Over the entire reported range of NTZ-associated PML risk, NTZ as first-line therapy is predicted to provide a greater net benefit (15.06 QALYs) than FGL (13.99 QALYs) or GA (12.71 QALYs) treatment over 30 years, after accounting for loss of QALYs due to PML or death (resulting from all causes). NTZ treatment is associated with delayed worsening to an Expanded Disability Status Scale score ≥6.0 vs FGL or GA (22.7, 17.0, and 12.4 years, respectively). Compared to untreated patients, NTZ-treated patients have a greater relative risk of death in the early years of treatment that varies according to PML risk profile. NTZ as a first-line treatment is associated with the highest net benefit across full ranges of PML risk, mortality, and morbidity compared to FGL or GA. Integrated modeling of long-term treatment risks and benefits informs stratified clinical decision-making and can support patient counseling on selection of first-line treatment options. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

Sun Exposure, Vitamin D Receptor Polymorphisms FokI and BsmI and Risk of Multiple Primary Melanoma

PubMed Central

Mandelcorn-Monson, Rochelle; Marrett, Loraine; Kricker, Anne; Armstrong, Bruce K.; Orlow, Irene; Goumas, Chris; Paine, Susan; Rosso, Stefano; Thomas, Nancy; Millikan, Robert C.; Pole, Jason D.; Cotignola, Javier; Rosen, Cheryl; Kanetsky, Peter A.; Lee-Taylor, Julia; Begg, Colin B.; Berwick, Marianne

2011-01-01

Sunlight exposure increases risk of melanoma. Sunlight also potentiates cutaneous synthesis of vitamin D, which can inhibit melanoma cell growth and promote apoptosis. Vitamin D effects are mediated through the vitamin D receptor (VDR). We hypothesized that genetic variation in VDR affects the relationship of sun exposure to risk of a further melanoma in people who have already had one. We investigated the interaction between VDR polymorphisms and sun exposure in a population-based multinational study comparing 1138 patients with a multiple (second or subsequent) primary melanoma (cases) to 2151 patients with a first primary melanoma (controls); essentially a case-control study of melanoma in a population of melanoma survivors. Sun exposure was assessed using a questionnaire and interview, and was shown to be associated with multiple primary melanoma. VDR was genotyped at the FokI and BsmI loci and the main effects of variants at these loci and their interactions with sun exposure were analyzed. Only the BsmI variant was associated with multiple primary melanoma (OR = 1.27, 95% CI 0.99-1.62 for the homozygous variant genotype). Joint effects analyses showed highest ORs in the high exposure, homozygous variant BsmI genotype category for each sun exposure variable. Stratified analyses showed somewhat higher ORs for the homozygous BsmI variant genotype in people with high sun exposure than with low sun exposure. P values for interaction, however, were high. These results suggest that risk of multiple primary melanoma is increased in people who have the BsmI variant of VDR. PMID:21612999

Sun exposure, vitamin D receptor polymorphisms FokI and BsmI and risk of multiple primary melanoma.

PubMed

Mandelcorn-Monson, Rochelle; Marrett, Loraine; Kricker, Anne; Armstrong, Bruce K; Orlow, Irene; Goumas, Chris; Paine, Susan; Rosso, Stefano; Thomas, Nancy; Millikan, Robert C; Pole, Jason D; Cotignola, Javier; Rosen, Cheryl; Kanetsky, Peter A; Lee-Taylor, Julia; Begg, Colin B; Berwick, Marianne

2011-12-01

Sunlight exposure increases risk of melanoma. Sunlight also potentiates cutaneous synthesis of vitamin D, which can inhibit melanoma cell growth and promote apoptosis. Vitamin D effects are mediated through the vitamin D receptor (VDR). We hypothesized that genetic variation in VDR affects the relationship of sun exposure to risk of a further melanoma in people who have already had one. We investigated the interaction between VDR polymorphisms and sun exposure in a population-based multinational study comparing 1138 patients with a multiple (second or subsequent) primary melanoma (cases) to 2151 patients with a first primary melanoma (controls); essentially a case-control study of melanoma in a population of melanoma survivors. Sun exposure was assessed using a questionnaire and interview, and was shown to be associated with multiple primary melanoma. VDR was genotyped at the FokI and BsmI loci and the main effects of variants at these loci and their interactions with sun exposure were analyzed. Only the BsmI variant was associated with multiple primary melanoma (OR=1.27, 95% CI 0.99-1.62 for the homozygous variant genotype). Joint effects analyses showed highest ORs in the high exposure, homozygous variant BsmI genotype category for each sun exposure variable. Stratified analyses showed somewhat higher ORs for the homozygous BsmI variant genotype in people with high sun exposure than with low sun exposure. P values for interaction, however, were high. These results suggest that risk of multiple primary melanoma is increased in people who have the BsmI variant of VDR. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dual and multiple diagnosis among substance using runaway youth.

PubMed

Slesnick, Natasha; Prestopnik, Jillian

2005-01-01

Although research on runaway and homeless youth is increasing, relatively little is known about the diagnostic profile of runaway adolescents. The current study examined patterns of psychiatric dual and multiple diagnosis among a sample (N=226) of treatment-engaged substance-abusing youth (ages 13 to 17) who were residing at a runaway shelter. As part of a larger treatment outcome study, the youths' psychiatric status was assessed using the DSM-IV based computerized diagnostic interview schedule for children [CDISC; (1)]. The majority of the youth in our sample met criteria for dual or multiple diagnosis (60%) with many having more than one substance-use diagnosis (56%). The severity of mental-health and substance-use problems in this sample of substance-abusing runaways suggests the need for continued development of comprehensive services. The range and intensity of diagnoses seen indicates a need for greater focus on treatment development and strategies to address their multiple areas of risk.

Risk-benefit considerations in the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

PubMed Central

Lugaresi, Alessandra; di Ioia, Maria; Travaglini, Daniela; Pietrolongo, Erika; Pucci, Eugenio; Onofrj, Marco

2013-01-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic demyelinating disease of the central nervous system and mainly affects young adults. Its natural history has changed in recent years with the advent of disease-modifying drugs, which have been available since the early 1990s. The increasing number of first-line and second-line treatment options, together with the variable course of the disease and patient lifestyles and expectations, makes the therapeutic decision a real challenge. The aim of this review is to give a comprehensive overview of the main present and some future drugs for relapsing-remitting MS, including risk-benefit considerations, to enable readers to draw their own conclusions regarding the risk-benefit assessment of personalized treatment strategies, taking into account not only treatment-related but also disease-related risks. We performed a Medline literature search to identify studies on the treatment of MS with risk stratification and risk-benefit considerations. We focused our attention on studies of disease-modifying, immunomodulating, and immunosuppressive drugs, including monoclonal antibodies. Here we offer personal considerations, stemming from long-term experience in the treatment of MS and thorough discussions with other neurologists closely involved in the care of patients with the disease. MS specialists need to know not only the specific risks and benefits of single drugs, but also about drug interactions, either in simultaneous or serial combination therapy, and patient comorbidities, preferences, and fears. This has to be put into perspective, considering also the risks of untreated disease in patients with different clinical and radiological characteristics. There is no single best treatment strategy, but therapy has to be tailored to the patient. This is a time-consuming task, rich in complexity, and influenced by the attitude towards risk on the parts of both the patient and the clinical team. The broader the MS drug market becomes, the

Methods for addressing "innocent bystanders" when evaluating safety of concomitant vaccines.

PubMed

Wang, Shirley V; Abdurrob, Abdurrahman; Spoendlin, Julia; Lewis, Edwin; Newcomer, Sophia R; Fireman, Bruce; Daley, Matthew F; Glanz, Jason M; Duffy, Jonathan; Weintraub, Eric S; Kulldorff, Martin

2018-04-01

The need to develop methods for studying the safety of childhood immunization schedules has been recognized by the Institute of Medicine and Department of Health and Human Services. The recommended childhood immunization schedule includes multiple vaccines in a visit. A key concern is safety of concomitant (same day) versus separate day vaccination. This paper addresses a methodological challenge for observational studies using a self-controlled design to investigate the safety of concomitant vaccination. We propose a process for distinguishing which of several concomitantly administered vaccines is responsible for increased risk of an adverse event while adjusting for confounding due to relationships between effect modifying risk factors and concomitant vaccine combinations. We illustrate the approach by re-examining the known increase in risk of seizure 7 to 10 days after measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination and evaluating potential independent or modifying effects of other vaccines. Initial analyses suggested that DTaP had both an independent and potentiating effect on seizure. After accounting for the relationship between age at vaccination and vaccine combination, there was little evidence for increased risk of seizure with same day administration of DTaP and MMR; incidence rate ratio, 95% confidence interval 1.2 (0.9-1.6), P value = θ.226. We have shown that when using a self-controlled design to investigate safety of concomitant vaccination, it can be critically important to adjust for time-invariant effect modifying risk factors, such as age at time of vaccination, which are structurally related to vaccination patterns due to recommended immunization schedules. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Distinct encoding of risk and value in economic choice between multiple risky options☆

PubMed Central

Wright, Nicholas D.; Symmonds, Mkael; Dolan, Raymond J.

2013-01-01

Neural encoding of value-based stimuli is suggested to involve representations of summary statistics, including risk and expected value (EV). A more complex, but ecologically more common, context is when multiple risky options are evaluated together. However, it is unknown whether encoding related to option evaluation in these situations involves similar principles. Here we employed fMRI during a task that parametrically manipulated EV and risk in two simultaneously presented lotteries, both of which contained either gains or losses. We found representations of EV in medial prefrontal cortex and anterior insula, an encoding that was dependent on which option was chosen (i.e. chosen and unchosen EV) and whether the choice was over gains or losses. Parietal activity reflected whether the riskier or surer option was selected, whilst activity in a network of regions that also included parietal cortex reflected both combined risk and difference in risk for the two options. Our findings provide support for the idea that summary statistics underpin a representation of value-based stimuli, and further that these summary statistics undergo distinct forms of encoding. PMID:23684860

Numerical study of impact erosion of multiple solid particle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Chao; Liu, Yonghong; Chen, Cheng; Qin, Jie; Ji, Renjie; Cai, Baoping

2017-11-01

Material erosion caused by continuous particle impingement during hydraulic fracturing results in significant economic loss and increased production risks. The erosion process is complex and has not been clearly explained through physical experiments. To address this problem, a multiple particle model in a 3D configuration was proposed to investigate the dynamic erosion process. This approach can significantly reduce experiment costs. The numerical model considered material damping and elastic-plastic material behavior of target material. The effects of impact parameters on erosion characteristics, such as plastic deformation, contact time, and energy loss rate, were investigated. Based on comprehensive studies, the dynamic erosion mechanism and geometry evolution of eroded crater was obtained. These findings can provide a detailed erosion process of target material and insights into the material erosion caused by multiple particle impingement.

A challenge for land and risk managers: differents stakeholders, differents definitions of the risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, M.; Ruegg, J.

2012-04-01

In developing countries, mountain populations and territories are subject to multiple risks and vulnerabilities. In addition, they face even greater challenges than developed countries due to lack of knowledge, resources and technology. There are many different types of actors in society that manage risk at various scales and levels (i.e. engineers, geologists, administrators, land use planners, merchants and local indigenous and non-indigenous people). Because of limited resources and possibilities to reduce all types of risk, these different actors, or 'risk managers' have to choose and compete to prioritize which types of risks to address. This paper addresses a case study from San Cristobal Altaverapaz, Guatemala where a large landslide "Los Chorros", a catastrophic collapse of 6 millions cubic meters of rock, is affecting several communities and one of the country's main west-east access highways. In this case, the government established that the "primary" risk is the landslide, whereas other local stakeholders consider the primary risks to be economic This paper, situated at the cross section between political science, geography and disaster risk management, addresses the social conflict and competition for priorities and solutions for risk management, depending on the group of actors based on the on-going Los Chorros, Guatemala landslide mitigation process. This work is based on the analysis of practices, (Practical Science), policies and institutions in order to understand how the inclusion of multiple stakeholders in determining risk priorities can lead to more sustainable risk management in a given territory. The main objective of this investigation is first to identify and understand the juxtaposition of different readings of the risk equation, usually considered the interface between vulnerability, exposure and hazards. Secondly, it is to analyze the mechanisms of actions taken by various stakeholders, or risk managers. The analysis focuses on the

Nanoscale content-addressable memory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Bryan (Inventor); Principe, Jose C. (Inventor); Fortes, Jose (Inventor)

2009-01-01

A combined content addressable memory device and memory interface is provided. The combined device and interface includes one or more one molecular wire crossbar memories having spaced-apart key nanowires, spaced-apart value nanowires adjacent to the key nanowires, and configurable switches between the key nanowires and the value nanowires. The combination further includes a key microwire-nanowire grid (key MNG) electrically connected to the spaced-apart key nanowires, and a value microwire-nanowire grid (value MNG) electrically connected to the spaced-apart value nanowires. A key or value MNGs selects multiple nanowires for a given key or value.

Testing for Nonuniform Differential Item Functioning with Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woods, Carol M.; Grimm, Kevin J.

2011-01-01

In extant literature, multiple indicator multiple cause (MIMIC) models have been presented for identifying items that display uniform differential item functioning (DIF) only, not nonuniform DIF. This article addresses, for apparently the first time, the use of MIMIC models for testing both uniform and nonuniform DIF with categorical indicators. A…

Risk Governance of Multiple Natural Hazards: Centralized versus Decentralized Approach in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komendantova, Nadejda; Scolobig, Anna; Vinchon, Charlotte

2014-05-01

The multi-risk approach is a relatively new field and its definition includes the need to consider multiple hazards and vulnerabilities in their interdependency (Selva, 2013) and the current multi-hazards disasters, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and nuclear catastrophe, showed the need for a multi-risk approach in hazard mitigation and management. Our knowledge about multi-risk assessment, including studies from different scientific disciplines and developed assessment tools, is constantly growing (White et al., 2001). However, the link between scientific knowledge, its implementation and the results in terms of improved governance and decision-making have gained significantly less attention (IRGC, 2005; Kappes et al., 2012), even though the interest to risk governance, in general, has increased significantly during the last years (Verweiy and Thompson, 2006). Therefore, the key research question is how risk assessment is implemented and what is the potential for the implementation of a multi-risk approach in different governance systems across Europe. More precisely, how do the characteristics of risk governance, such as the degree of centralization versus decentralization, influence the implementation of a multi-risk approach. The methodology of this research includes comparative case study analysis of top-down and bottom-up interactions in governance in the city of Naples, (Italy), where the institutional landscape is marked by significant autonomy of Italian regions in decision-making processes for assessing the majority of natural risks, excluding volcanic, and in Guadeloupe, French West Indies, an overseas department of France, where the decision-making process is marked by greater centralization in decision making associated with a well established state governance within regions, delegated to the prefect and decentralised services of central ministries. The research design included documentary analysis and extensive empirical work involving

A land-use regression model for estimating microenvironmental diesel exposure given multiple addresses from birth through childhood.

PubMed

Ryan, Patrick H; Lemasters, Grace K; Levin, Linda; Burkle, Jeff; Biswas, Pratim; Hu, Shaohua; Grinshpun, Sergey; Reponen, Tiina

2008-10-01

The Cincinnati Childhood Allergy and Air Pollution Study (CCAAPS) is a prospective birth cohort whose purpose is to determine if exposure to high levels of diesel exhaust particles (DEP) during early childhood increases the risk for developing allergic diseases. In order to estimate exposure to DEP, a land-use regression (LUR) model was developed using geographic data as independent variables and sampled levels of a marker of DEP as the dependent variable. A continuous wind direction variable was also created. The LUR model predicted 74% of the variability in sampled values with four variables: wind direction, length of bus routes within 300 m of the sample site, a measure of truck intensity within 300 m of the sampling site, and elevation. The LUR model was subsequently applied to all locations where the child had spent more than eight hours per week from through age three. A time-weighted average (TWA) microenvironmental exposure estimate was derived for four time periods: 0-6 months, 7-12 months, 13-24 months, 25-36 months. By age two, one third of the children were spending significant time at locations other than home and by 36 months, 39% of the children had changed their residential addresses. The mean cumulative DEP exposure estimate increased from age 6 to 36 months from 70 to 414 microg/m3-days. Findings indicate that using birth addresses to estimate a child's exposure may result in exposure misclassification for some children who spend a significant amount of time at a location with high exposure to DEP.

Dual task cost of walking is related to fall risk in persons with multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Wajda, Douglas A; Motl, Robert W; Sosnoff, Jacob J

2013-12-15

Persons with multiple sclerosis (MS) commonly have walking and cognitive impairments. While walking with a simultaneous cognitive task, persons with MS experience a greater decline in walking performance than healthy controls. This change in performance is termed dual task cost or dual task interference and has been associated with fall risk in older adults. We examined whether dual task cost during walking was related to fall risk in persons with MS. Thirty-three ambulatory persons with MS performed walking tasks with and without a concurrent cognitive task (dual task condition) as well as underwent a fall risk assessment. Dual task cost was operationalized as the percent change in velocity from normal walking conditions to dual task walking conditions. Fall risk was quantified using the Physiological Profile Assessment. A Spearman correlation analysis revealed a significant positive correlation between dual task cost of walking velocity and fall risk as well as dual task cost of stride length and fall risk. Overall, the findings indicate that dual task cost is associated with fall risk and may be an important target for falls prevention strategies. © 2013.

Multiple imputation for estimating the risk of developing dementia and its impact on survival.

PubMed

Yu, Binbing; Saczynski, Jane S; Launer, Lenore

2010-10-01

Dementia, Alzheimer's disease in particular, is one of the major causes of disability and decreased quality of life among the elderly and a leading obstacle to successful aging. Given the profound impact on public health, much research has focused on the age-specific risk of developing dementia and the impact on survival. Early work has discussed various methods of estimating age-specific incidence of dementia, among which the illness-death model is popular for modeling disease progression. In this article we use multiple imputation to fit multi-state models for survival data with interval censoring and left truncation. This approach allows semi-Markov models in which survival after dementia depends on onset age. Such models can be used to estimate the cumulative risk of developing dementia in the presence of the competing risk of dementia-free death. Simulations are carried out to examine the performance of the proposed method. Data from the Honolulu Asia Aging Study are analyzed to estimate the age-specific and cumulative risks of dementia and to examine the effect of major risk factors on dementia onset and death.

Gender identity disorders and multiple sclerosis risk: A national record-linkage study.

PubMed

Pakpoor, Julia; Wotton, Clare J; Schmierer, Klaus; Giovannoni, Gavin; Goldacre, Michael J

2016-11-01

An altered balance of gonadal hormones in males with gender identity disorders (GIDs) may increase multiple sclerosis (MS) risk both inherently and secondary to treatment in undergoing male-to-female conversion. We investigated any association between GIDs and MS through analysis of record-linked hospital statistics. Analysis of English Hospital Episode Statistics, 1999-2012. The adjusted rate ratio (RR) of MS following GIDs in males was 6.63 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 1.81-17.01, p = 0.0002). The RR of MS following GIDs in females was 1.44 (95% CI = 0.47-3.37, p = 0.58). We report a strong association between GIDs and MS in male-to-females, supporting a potential role for low testosterone and/or feminising hormones on MS risk in males. © The Author(s), 2016.

Balancing the benefits and risks of disease-modifying therapy in patients with multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Sørensen, Per Soelberg

2011-12-01

Balancing efficacy versus burden of therapy is essential for the choice of disease-modifying therapy in every MS patient. The first-line therapies, interferon-? and glatiramer acetate, have well-established efficacy and present no major safety concerns. Certain second-line therapies, such as natalizumab, offer potentially greater efficacy, but are associated with an increased level of risk. Over the last year, the first two oral treatments of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, cladribine and fingolimod, have been marketed in certain countries, although cladribine was subsequently withdrawn. In the Phase III clinical development programme, both drugs appeared effective and reasonably safe. However, there were cases of serious adverse events (malignancies and fatal infections) whose relationship with treatment was unclear. Specific postmarketing studies will be necessary to assess the risks of these new oral therapies. Indeed, both natalizumab and mitoxantrone are known today to be associated with rare adverse drug reactions (progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy for natalizumab and treatment-related leukaemia for mitoxantrone), which were not identified before the treatments were approved. The use of therapies carrying potential serious risks is justified in patients who cannot be treated effectively with safe first-line therapies, but probably not in the average relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis or clinical isolated syndrome patient. Pivotal Phase III clinical trials, on which basis drug approval is generally granted, are designed to demonstrate clinical efficacy and reveal frequently occurring adverse effects of a new drug. However, post-approval trials with extensive patient exposure are needed to generate knowledge of more patient-specific clinical effectiveness and long-term safety, in particular with respect to rare adverse reactions. Other post-approval measures, such as risk management programmes, pharmacovigilance studies, or phased launch of

Coffee and Green Tea Consumption and Subsequent Risk of Malignant Lymphoma and Multiple Myeloma in Japan: The Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study.

PubMed

Ugai, Tomotaka; Matsuo, Keitaro; Sawada, Norie; Iwasaki, Motoki; Yamaji, Taiki; Shimazu, Taichi; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Inoue, Manami; Kanda, Yoshinobu; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2017-08-01

Background: The aim of this study was to investigate the association of coffee and green tea consumption and the risk of malignant lymphoma and multiple myeloma in a large-scale population-based cohort study in Japan. Methods: In this analysis, a total of 95,807 Japanese subjects (45,937 men and 49,870 women; ages 40-69 years at baseline) of the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study who completed a questionnaire about their coffee and green tea consumption were followed up until December 31, 2012, for an average of 18 years. HRs and 95% confidence intervals were estimated using a Cox regression model adjusted for potential confounders as a measure of association between the risk of malignant lymphoma and multiple myeloma associated with coffee and green tea consumption at baseline. Results: During the follow-up period, a total of 411 malignant lymphoma cases and 138 multiple myeloma cases were identified. Overall, our findings showed no significant association between coffee or green tea consumption and the risk of malignant lymphoma or multiple myeloma for both sexes. Conclusions: In this study, we observed no significant association between coffee or green tea consumption and the risk of malignant lymphoma or multiple myeloma. Impact: Our results do not support an association between coffee or green tea consumption and the risk of malignant lymphoma or multiple myeloma. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(8); 1352-6. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

Multiple sclerosis decreases explicit counterfactual processing and risk taking in decision making.

PubMed

Simioni, Samanta; Schluep, Myriam; Bault, Nadège; Coricelli, Giorgio; Kleeberg, Joerg; Du Pasquier, Renaud A; Gschwind, Markus; Vuilleumier, Patrik; Annoni, Jean-Marie

2012-01-01

Deficits in decision making (DM) are commonly associated with prefrontal cortical damage, but may occur with multiple sclerosis (MS). There are no data concerning the impact of MS on tasks evaluating DM under explicit risk, where different emotional and cognitive components can be distinguished. We assessed 72 relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients with mild to moderate disease and 38 healthy controls in two DM tasks involving risk with explicit rules: (1) The Wheel of Fortune (WOF), which probes the anticipated affects of decisions outcomes on future choices; and (2) The Cambridge Gamble Task (CGT) which measures risk taking. Participants also underwent a neuropsychological and emotional assessment, and skin conductance responses (SCRs) were recorded. In the WOF, RRMS patients showed deficits in integrating positive counterfactual information (p<0.005) and greater risk aversion (p<0.001). They reported less negative affect than controls (disappointment: p = 0.007; regret: p = 0.01), although their implicit emotional reactions as measured by post-choice SCRs did not differ. In the CGT, RRMS patients differed from controls in quality of DM (p = 0.01) and deliberation time (p = 0.0002), the latter difference being correlated with attention scores. Such changes did not result in overall decreases in performance (total gains). The quality of DM under risk was modified by MS in both tasks. The reduction in the expression of disappointment coexisted with an increased risk aversion in the WOF and alexithymia features. These concomitant emotional alterations may have implications for better understanding the components of explicit DM and for the clinical support of MS patients.

Integrating Multiple Social Statuses in Health Disparities Research: The Case of Lung Cancer

PubMed Central

Williams, David R; Kontos, Emily Z; Viswanath, K; Haas, Jennifer S; Lathan, Christopher S; MacConaill, Laura E; Chen, Jarvis; Ayanian, John Z

2012-01-01

Objective To illustrate the complex patterns that emerge when race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status (SES), and gender are considered simultaneously in health care disparities research and to outline the needed research to understand them by using disparities in lung cancer risks, treatment, and outcomes as an example. Principal Findings SES, gender, and race/ethnicity are social categories that are robust predictors of variations in health and health services utilization. These are usually considered separately, but intersectionality theory indicates that the impact of each depends on the others. Each reflects historically and culturally contingent variations in social, economic, and political status. Distinct patterns of risk and resilience emerge at the intersections of multiple social categories and shape the experience of health, health care access, utilization, quality, and outcomes where these categories intersect. Intersectional approaches call for greater attention to understand social processes at multiple levels of society and require the collection of relevant data and utilization of appropriate analytic approaches to understand how multiple risk factors and resources combine to affect the distribution of disease and its management. Conclusions Understanding how race/ethnicity, gender, and SES are interactive, interdependent, and social identities can provide new knowledge to enhance our efforts to effectively address health disparities. PMID:22568674

Binary variable multiple-model multiple imputation to address missing data mechanism uncertainty: Application to a smoking cessation trial

PubMed Central

Siddique, Juned; Harel, Ofer; Crespi, Catherine M.; Hedeker, Donald

2014-01-01

The true missing data mechanism is never known in practice. We present a method for generating multiple imputations for binary variables that formally incorporates missing data mechanism uncertainty. Imputations are generated from a distribution of imputation models rather than a single model, with the distribution reflecting subjective notions of missing data mechanism uncertainty. Parameter estimates and standard errors are obtained using rules for nested multiple imputation. Using simulation, we investigate the impact of missing data mechanism uncertainty on post-imputation inferences and show that incorporating this uncertainty can increase the coverage of parameter estimates. We apply our method to a longitudinal smoking cessation trial where nonignorably missing data were a concern. Our method provides a simple approach for formalizing subjective notions regarding nonresponse and can be implemented using existing imputation software. PMID:24634315

Mobility measures differentiate falls risk status in persons with multiple sclerosis: An exploratory study.

PubMed

Sebastião, Emerson; Learmonth, Yvonne C; Motl, Robert W

2017-01-01

Falls are of great concern among persons with multiple sclerosis (MS). To examine differences in metrics of mobility, postural control, and cognition in persons with MS with distinct fall risk status; and to investigate predictors of fall risk group membership using discriminant analysis. Forty-seven persons with MS completed the Activities-Balance Confidence (ABC) Scale and underwent a battery of assessments of mobility, balance, and cognition. Participants further wore an accelerometer for 7 days as an assessment of steps/day. Participants were allocated into fall risk groups based on ABC scale scores (increased fall risk (IFR); and normal fall risk (NFR)). We examined univariate differences between groups using ANOVA, and discriminant function analysis (DFA) identified the significant multivariate predictors of FR status. After controlling for disability level, the IFR group had significantly (p < 0.05) worse scores on measures of mobility (i.e., MSWS-12, 6 MW, and steps/day) compared to the NFR group. DFA identified MSWS-12 and 6 MW scores as significant (p < 0.05) predictors of fall risk group membership. Those two variables collectively explained 55% of variance in fall risk grouping. The findings suggest that mobility should be the focus of rehabilitation programs in persons with MS, especially for those at IFR.

[Children with Multiple Risk Factor Exposition Benefit from the German "Strengthening Families Program"].

PubMed

Bröning, Sonja; Sack, Peter-Michael; Thomsen, Monika; Thomasius, Rainer

2016-09-01

Children with Multiple Risk Factor Exposition Benefit from the German "Strengthening Families Program" The German adaptation of the substance use-preventive family-based Strengthening Families Program 10-14 (SFP, Iowa version) was evaluated in a longitudinal two-year follow-up trial. Participants were N = 292 children with a mean age of twelve years at baseline, and N = 292 parents. We employed a multi-centric, randomized-controlled, two-armed (SFP vs. minimal control condition) study design. Following a "risk moderation hypothesis", we assumed that children with an elevated risk-exposition R(+) would benefit more than children with a low risk-exposition R(-) irrespective of the preventive intervention, and that R(+) under SFP would benefit more than R(+) under the minimal control condition. "Risk-exposition" was measured in correspondence with the Communities That Care Youth Survey-questionnaire. A total of 28 % of children were classified with an elevated risk level. Children's reports confirmed our hypothesis: R(+) report a total of eleven improvements, four of these being significantly more distinct than in the other groups (Anxiety-Depressivity, Punitive Parenting of mother, Punitive Parenting of father, Unbalanced family functioning). In three measures an improvement appears solely in R(+) under SFP (Satisfaction with family functioning, School Attachment and Peer Relationship Quality, Quality of Life). Parents' reports showed a similar tendency, but were less pronounced.

Smoldering multiple myeloma requiring treatment: time for a new definition?

PubMed Central

Stewart, A. Keith; Chanan-Khan, Asher; Rajkumar, S. Vincent; Kyle, Robert A.; Fonseca, Rafael; Kapoor, Prashant; Bergsagel, P. Leif; McCurdy, Arleigh; Gertz, Morie A.; Lacy, Martha Q.; Lust, John A.; Russell, Stephen J.; Zeldenrust, Steven R.; Reeder, Craig; Roy, Vivek; Buadi, Francis; Dingli, David; Hayman, Suzanne R.; Leung, Nelson; Lin, Yi; Mikhael, Joseph; Kumar, Shaji K.

2013-01-01

Smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) bridges the gap between monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (a mostly premalignant disorder) and active multiple myeloma (MM). Until recently, no interventional study in patients with SMM showed improved overall survival (OS) with therapy as compared with observation. A report from the PETHEMA-GEM (Programa Español de Tratamientos en Hematologica) group described both fewer myeloma-related events and better OS among patients with high-risk SMM who were treated with lenalidomide and dexamethasone. This unique study prompted us to review current knowledge about SMM and address the following questions: (1) Are there patients currently defined as SMM who should be treated routinely? (2) Should the definitions of SMM and MM be reconsidered? (3) Has the time come when not treating is more dangerous than treating? (4) Could unintended medical harm result from overzealous intervention? Our conclusion is that those patients with the highest-risk SMM (extreme bone marrow plasmacytosis, extremely abnormal serum immunoglobulin free light chain ratio, and multiple bone lesions detected only by modern imaging) should be reclassified as active MM so that they can receive MM-appropriate therapy and the paradigm of careful observation for patients with SMM can be preserved. PMID:24144641

Veterinary public health capacity-building in India: a grim reflection of the developing world's underpreparedness to address zoonotic risks.

PubMed

Kakkar, Manish; Abbas, Syed Shahid; Kumar, Ashok; Hussain, Mohammad Akhtar; Sharma, Kavya; Bhatt, Purvi Mehta; Zodpey, Sanjay

2013-01-01

Veterinary public health (VPH) is ideally suited to promote convergence between human, animal and environmental sectors. Recent zoonotic and emerging infectious disease events have given rise to increasing calls for efforts to build global VPH capacities. However, even with their greater vulnerability to such events, including their economic and livelihood impacts, the response from low-and middle-income countries such as India has been suboptimal, thereby elevating global health risks. Addressing risks effectively at the human-animal interface in these countries will require a clear vision, consistent policies, strategic approach and sustained political commitment to reform and refine the current VPH capacity-building efforts. Only then can the discipline serve its goal of disease prevention, poverty alleviation and support for sustainable livelihoods through improvements in human and animal health.

The importance of multiple performance criteria for understanding trust in risk managers.

PubMed

Johnson, Branden B; White, Mathew P

2010-07-01

Effective risk management requires balancing several, sometimes competing, goals, such as protecting public health and ensuring cost control. Research examining public trust of risk managers has largely focused on trust that is unspecified or for a single goal. Yet it can be reasonable to have a high level of trust in one aspect of a target's performance but not another. Two studies involving redevelopment of contaminated land (Study 1) and drinking water standards (Study 2) present preliminary evidence on the value of distinguishing between performance criteria for understanding of trust. Study 1 assessed perceptions of several trust targets (councilors, developers, scientists, residents) on their competence (capacity to achieve goals) and willingness to take action under uncertainty for four criteria. Study 2 assessed competence, willingness, and trust for five criteria regarding a single government agency. In both studies overall trust in each target was significantly better explained by considering perceptions of their performance on multiple criteria than on the single criterion of public health. In Study 1, the influence of criteria also varied plausibly across trust targets (e.g., willingness to act under uncertainty increased trust in developers on cost control and councilors on local economic improvement, but decreased it for both targets on environmental protection). Study 2 showed that explained variance in trust increased with both dimension- and trust-based measures of criteria. Further conceptual and methodological development of the notion of multiple trust criteria could benefit our understanding of stated trust judgments.

Lowering risk score profile during PCI in multiple vessel disease is associated with low adverse events: The ERACI risk score.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Alfredo E; Fernandez-Pereira, Carlos; Mieres, Juan; Pavlovsky, Hernan; Del Pozo, Juan; Rodriguez-Granillo, Alfredo M; Antoniucci, David

2018-02-13

In recent years angiographic risk scores have been introduced in clinical practice to stratify different levels of risk after percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI). The SYNTAX score included all intermediate lesions in vessels ≥1.5 mm, consequently, multiple stent implantation was required. Four years ago, we built a new angiographic score in order to guide PCI strategy avoiding stent deployment both in intermediate stenosis as in small vessels, therefore these were not scored (ERACI risk score). The purpose of this mini review is to validate the strategy of PCI guided by this scoring, taking into account long term follow up outcomes of two observational and prospective registries where this policy was used. With this new risk score we have modified risk profile of our patient's candidates for PCI or coronary artery bypass surgery lowering the risk and <20% of them are now included anatomically as high risk for PCI. The simple exclusion of small vessels and intermediate stenosis from the revascularization approach resulted in clinical outcome comparable with the one of fractional flow reserve guided revascularization. Low events rate at late follow up observed in both studies was also in agreement with guided PCI by functional lesion assessment observed by Syntax II registry, where investigators found lower events rate in spite of a few number of stents implanted per patient. use of ERACI risk scores may significantly reclassify patients into a lower risk category and be associated with low adverse events rate. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Diagnosis-based Cost Groups in the Dutch Risk-equalization Model: Effects of Clustering Diagnoses and of Allowing Patients to be Classified into Multiple Risk-classes.

PubMed

Eijkenaar, Frank; van Vliet, René C J A; van Kleef, Richard C

2018-01-01

The risk-equalization (RE) model in the Dutch health insurance market has evolved to a sophisticated model containing direct proxies for health. However, it still has important imperfections, leaving incentives for risk selection. This paper focuses on refining an important health-based risk-adjuster in this model: the diagnosis-based costs groups (DCGs). The current (2017) DCGs are calibrated on "old" data of 2011/2012, are mutually exclusive, and are essentially clusters of about 200 diagnosis-groups ("dxgroups"). Hospital claims data (2013), administrative data (2014) on costs and risk-characteristics for the entire Dutch population (N≈16.9 million), and health survey data (2012, N≈387,000) are used. The survey data are used to identify subgroups of individuals in poor or in good health. The claims and administrative data are used to develop alternative DCG-modalities to examine the impact on individual-level and group-level fit of recalibrating the DCGs based on new data, of allowing patients to be classified in multiple DCGs, and of refraining from clustering. Recalibrating the DCGs and allowing enrolees to be classified into multiple DCGs lead to nontrivial improvements in individual-level and group-level fit (especially for cancer patients and people with comorbid conditions). The improvement resulting from refraining from clustering does not seem to justify the increase in model complexity this would entail. The performance of the sophisticated Dutch RE-model can be improved by allowing classification in multiple (clustered) DCGs and using new data. Irrespective of the modality used, however, various subgroups remain significantly undercompensated. Further improvement of the RE-model merits high priority.

Cellular Proliferation by Multiplex Immunohistochemistry Identifies High-Risk Multiple Myeloma in Newly Diagnosed, Treatment-Naive Patients.

PubMed

Ely, Scott; Forsberg, Peter; Ouansafi, Ihsane; Rossi, Adriana; Modin, Alvin; Pearse, Roger; Pekle, Karen; Perry, Arthur; Coleman, Morton; Jayabalan, David; Di Liberto, Maurizio; Chen-Kiang, Selina; Niesvizky, Ruben; Mark, Tomer M

2017-12-01

Therapeutic options for multiple myeloma (MM) are growing, yet clinical outcomes remain heterogeneous. Cytogenetic analysis and disease staging are mainstays of risk stratification, but data suggest a complex interplay between numerous abnormalities. Myeloma cell proliferation is a metric shown to predict outcomes, but available methods are not feasible in clinical practice. Multiplex immunohistochemistry (mIHC), using multiple immunostains simultaneously, is universally available for clinical use. We tested mIHC as a method to calculate a plasma cell proliferation index (PCPI). By mIHC, marrow trephine core biopsy samples were costained for CD138, a plasma cell-specific marker, and Ki-67. Myeloma cells (CD138 + ) were counted as proliferating if coexpressing Ki-67. Retrospective analysis was performed on 151 newly diagnosed, treatment-naive patients divided into 2 groups on the basis of myeloma cell proliferation: low (PCPI ≤ 5%, n = 87), and high (PCPI > 5%, n = 64). Median overall survival (OS) was not reached versus 78.9 months (P = .0434) for the low versus high PCPI groups. Multivariate analysis showed that only high-risk cytogenetics (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.02; P = .023), International Staging System (ISS) stage > I (HR = 2.30; P = .014), and PCPI > 5% (HR = 1.70; P = .041) had independent effects on OS. Twenty-three (36%) of the 64 patients with low-risk disease (ISS stage 1, without high-risk cytogenetics) were uniquely reidentified as high risk by PCPI. PCPI is a practical method that predicts OS in newly diagnosed myeloma and facilitates broader use of MM cell proliferation for risk stratification. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Governance of environmental risk: new approaches to managing stakeholder involvement.

PubMed

Benn, Suzanne; Dunphy, Dexter; Martin, Andrew

2009-04-01

Disputes concerning industrial legacies such as the disposal of toxic wastes illustrate changing pressures on corporations and governments. Business and governments are now confronted with managing the expectations of a society increasingly aware of the social and environmental impacts and risks associated with economic development and demanding more equitable distribution and democratic management of such risks. The closed managerialist decision-making of the powerful bureaucracies and corporations of the industrial era is informed by traditional management theory which cannot provide a framework for the adequate governance of these risks. Recent socio-political theories have conceptualised some key themes that must be addressed in a more fitting approach to governance. We identify more recent management and governance theory which addresses these themes and develop a process-based approach to governance of environmental disputes that allows for the evolving nature of stakeholder relations in a highly complex multiple stakeholder arena.

Managing flood risks in the Mekong Delta: How to address emerging challenges under climate change and socioeconomic developments.

PubMed

Hoang, Long Phi; Biesbroek, Robbert; Tri, Van Pham Dang; Kummu, Matti; van Vliet, Michelle T H; Leemans, Rik; Kabat, Pavel; Ludwig, Fulco

2018-02-24

Climate change and accelerating socioeconomic developments increasingly challenge flood-risk management in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta-a typical large, economically dynamic and highly vulnerable delta. This study identifies and addresses the emerging challenges for flood-risk management. Furthermore, we identify and analyse response solutions, focusing on meaningful configurations of the individual solutions and how they can be tailored to specific challenges using expert surveys, content analysis techniques and statistical inferences. Our findings show that the challenges for flood-risk management are diverse, but critical challenges predominantly arise from the current governance and institutional settings. The top-three challenges include weak collaboration, conflicting management objectives and low responsiveness to new issues. We identified 114 reported solutions and developed six flood management strategies that are tailored to specific challenges. We conclude that the current technology-centric flood management approach is insufficient given the rapid socioecological changes. This approach therefore should be adapted towards a more balanced management configuration where technical and infrastructural measures are combined with institutional and governance resolutions. Insights from this study contribute to the emerging repertoire of contemporary flood management solutions, especially through their configurations and tailoring to specific challenges.

Drug exposure and the risk of multiple sclerosis: A systematic review.

PubMed

Yong, Heather Y; McKay, Kyla A; Daley, Cole G J; Tremlett, Helen

2018-02-01

Several environmental and lifestyle factors have been associated with multiple sclerosis (MS) risk, including some pharmacological treatments. We systematically reviewed the literature on prescription drug exposure and MS risk. Six databases were searched for original observational studies reporting drug exposure and MS risk published before 2017. Thirteen articles fulfilled inclusion criteria. Exposure to neither amiloride nor valproic acid was associated with MS (adjusted hazard ratio (adj.HR = 1.34;95% CI:0.81-2.20; adj.HR = 1.30;95%CI:0.44-3.80, respectively). Four studies explored oral contraceptive exposure and reported no association with MS; while a single study found an increased risk (odds ratio [adj.OR] = 1.52;95%CI:1.21-1.91). While penicillin exposure was associated with reduced risk of developing MS (adj.OR = 0.5;95%CI:0.3-0.9), a later study observed an elevated risk for penicillin (adj.OR = 1.21;95%CI:1.10-1.27) and all antibiotics (adj.OR = 1.41;95%CI:1.29-1.53), which was potentially attributed to underlying infection. Anti-tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNFα) was not associated with MS risk in persons with inflammatory bowel disease (standard morbidity ratio = 4.2;95%CI:0.1-23.0) and arthritis (standardized incidence ratio = 1.38;95%CI:0.69-2.77); however, men exposed to anti-TNFα who also had arthritis and individuals with ankylosing spondylitis were at an increased risk (standardized incidence ratios = 3.91;95%CI:1.47-10.42 and 3.48;95%CI:1.45-8.37, respectively). A reduced risk of MS was observed with exposure to the beta2-adrenergic agonist fenoterol (adj.OR = 0.58;95%CI:0.45-0.76), and the sedating histamine 1-receptor antagonists (adj.OR = 0.2;95%CI:0.1-0.8), but not the non-sedating equivalent (adj.OR = 0.8;95%CI:0.4-1.6). The suggestion that some drugs may prevent MS is intriguing and warrants further study. In addition, further pharmacovigilance is needed to assess the safety of anti-TNFα drugs in specific

Childhood Obesity Prevention and Treatment Research (COPTR): Interventions Addressing Multiple Influences in Childhood and Adolescent Obesity

PubMed Central

Pratt, Charlotte A.; Boyington, Josephine; Esposito, Layla; Pemberton, Victoria L.; Bonds, Denise; Kelley, Melinda; Yang, Song; Murray, David; Stevens, June

2018-01-01

Obesity is a major public health problem affecting more than 12 million (~17%)U.S. children. The scientific community agrees that tackling this problem must begin in childhood to reduce risk of subsequent development of cardiovascular diseases and other chronic diseases. The Childhood Obesity Prevention and Treatment Research (COPTR) Consortium, initiated by the National Institutes of Health (NIH), is conducting intervention studies to prevent obesity in pre-schoolers and treat overweight or obese 7–13 year olds. Four randomized controlled trials plan to enroll a total of 1,700 children and adolescents (~ 50% female, 70% minorities), and are testing innovative multi-level and multi-component interventions in multiple settings involving primary care physicians, parks and recreational centers, family advocates, and schools. For all the studies, the primary outcome measure is body mass index; secondary outcomes, moderators and mediators of intervention include diet, physical activity, home and neighborhood influences, and psychosocial factors. COPTR is being conducted collaboratively among four participating field centers, a coordinating center, and NIH project offices. PMID:23999502

Multilevel joint competing risk models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karunarathna, G. H. S.; Sooriyarachchi, M. R.

2017-09-01

Joint modeling approaches are often encountered for different outcomes of competing risk time to event and count in many biomedical and epidemiology studies in the presence of cluster effect. Hospital length of stay (LOS) has been the widely used outcome measure in hospital utilization due to the benchmark measurement for measuring multiple terminations such as discharge, transferred, dead and patients who have not completed the event of interest at the follow up period (censored) during hospitalizations. Competing risk models provide a method of addressing such multiple destinations since classical time to event models yield biased results when there are multiple events. In this study, the concept of joint modeling has been applied to the dengue epidemiology in Sri Lanka, 2006-2008 to assess the relationship between different outcomes of LOS and platelet count of dengue patients with the district cluster effect. Two key approaches have been applied to build up the joint scenario. In the first approach, modeling each competing risk separately using the binary logistic model, treating all other events as censored under the multilevel discrete time to event model, while the platelet counts are assumed to follow a lognormal regression model. The second approach is based on the endogeneity effect in the multilevel competing risks and count model. Model parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood based on the Laplace approximation. Moreover, the study reveals that joint modeling approach yield more precise results compared to fitting two separate univariate models, in terms of AIC (Akaike Information Criterion).

Addressing health concerns of pregnant African American women using the lens of complexity theory.

PubMed

Sims, Traci

2014-01-01

Pregnant African American women are at higher risk for multiple complex health issues, including depression, than their European American counterparts (Canady, Bullen, Holzman, Broman, & Tian, 2008; Martin et al, 2011; Mathews & MacDorman, 2007; Orr, Blazer, & James, 2006; Segre, Losch, & O'Hara, 2006). Various strategies must be used to address depression through preventive care and promotion of access to appropriate mental health services. Nurses and other health care providers need to examine the relationships between the multifactorial problems to improve the health and well-being of pregnant African American women and their unborn children. This article presents a case study demonstrating the use of complexity science theory to understand and prevent poor health outcomes for pregnant African American women with depression and their unborn children.

Epidemiology of multiple sclerosis in US veterans: VII. Risk factors for MS.

PubMed

Kurtzke, J F; Page, W F

1997-01-01

In previous papers of this series, we explored the epidemiology of MS, examining the effects of race, sex, geography, latitude and climate, migration, age at onset, population ancestry, and individual ethnicity on the risk of MS, using an unusually large cohort of MS cases and pre-illness matched controls comprising US veterans of World War II (WWII) and the Korean Conflict (KC). In this paper, we examine primarily the effect of other factors on the risk of MS in this cohort and their relation to those previously studied. We found here that latitude tier of residence at entry into active duty (EAD), years of education, and socioeconomic class (coded from occupation) were similarly associated with MS risk among white men, black men, and white women. Higher levels of each factor showed increased MS risk. Multivariate analyses indicated that for white male WWII subjects an urban address, 9 or more years of education, uncorrected visual acuity less than 20/20 at EAD, a more northern latitude, and a higher proportion of the subject's EAD state population reporting Swedish ancestry each significantly increased the risk of MS. White male KC subjects showed roughly the same patterns, except that uncorrected visual acuity less than 20/20 was associated with lower MS risk (ancestry/ethnicity was not studied). For black male WWII and KC subjects combined, a similar analysis (omitting ancestry/ethnicity) showed that only latitude at EAD and 9 or more years of education were independently associated with a significantly higher MS risk, and for WWII plus KC white women (also without ancestry/ethnicity), only latitude was a significant risk factor in these multivariate analyses. The smaller number of subjects, especially in these last two groups, limited the power to detect statistically significant risks in these last analyses. Similarities to white men of WWII in univariate analyses for all other groups suggest that findings for the former would otherwise apply to the latter

High-risk and multiple human papillomavirus infections among married women in Can Tho, Viet Nam.

PubMed

Vu, Lan Thi Hoang

2012-07-01

The two currently licensed human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are highly efficacious in preventing cervical pre-cancers related to HPV 6, 11, 16 and 18. Before implementing a large-scale HPV vaccine campaign in Viet Nam, information about the prevalence of infection with the HPV vaccine types is required. This study was done in Can Tho, the province with the highest prevalence of cervical cancer in the south of Viet Nam, to explore the distribution of other high-risk types of HPV among married women in this province. The study employed a cross-sectional design with multistage sampling. A total of 1000 participants were randomly selected, interviewed and given gynaecological examinations. HPV infection status and HPV genotyping test were completed for all participants. A broad spectrum of HPV types was reported in this study. The prevalence of cases infected with HPV 16 and/or 18 was 7%; the prevalence of cases infected with other high-risk HPV types was 6%. The highest prevalence for single and multiple infections, as well as for high-risk infections, was reported for the youngest age group (less than 30 years). While it is relevant to implement an HPV vaccine campaign in Viet Nam due to the high prevalence of infection with HPV 16 and/or 18, it is important to note that one can be infected with multiple types of HPV. Vaccination does not protect against all types of high-risk HPV. Future vaccine campaigns should openly disclose this information to women receiving vaccines.

A new breast cancer risk analysis approach using features extracted from multiple sub-regions on bilateral mammograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Wenqing; Tseng, Tzu-Liang B.; Zheng, Bin; Zhang, Jianying; Qian, Wei

2015-03-01

A novel breast cancer risk analysis approach is proposed for enhancing performance of computerized breast cancer risk analysis using bilateral mammograms. Based on the intensity of breast area, five different sub-regions were acquired from one mammogram, and bilateral features were extracted from every sub-region. Our dataset includes 180 bilateral mammograms from 180 women who underwent routine screening examinations, all interpreted as negative and not recalled by the radiologists during the original screening procedures. A computerized breast cancer risk analysis scheme using four image processing modules, including sub-region segmentation, bilateral feature extraction, feature selection, and classification was designed to detect and compute image feature asymmetry between the left and right breasts imaged on the mammograms. The highest computed area under the curve (AUC) is 0.763 ± 0.021 when applying the multiple sub-region features to our testing dataset. The positive predictive value and the negative predictive value were 0.60 and 0.73, respectively. The study demonstrates that (1) features extracted from multiple sub-regions can improve the performance of our scheme compared to using features from whole breast area only; (2) a classifier using asymmetry bilateral features can effectively predict breast cancer risk; (3) incorporating texture and morphological features with density features can boost the classification accuracy.

Pathways to Childhood Depressive Symptoms: The Role of Social, Cognitive, and Genetic Risk Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lau, Jennifer Y. F.; Rijsdijk, Fruhling; Gregory, Alice M.; McGuffin, Peter; Eley, Thalia C.

2007-01-01

Childhood depressive conditions have been explored from multiple theoretical approaches but with few empirical attempts to address the interrelationships among these different domains and their combined effects. In the present study, the authors examined different pathways through which social, cognitive, and genetic risk factors may be expressed…

Filling Terrorism Gaps: VEOs, Evaluating Databases, and Applying Risk Terrain Modeling to Terrorism

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hagan, Ross F.

2016-08-29

This paper aims to address three issues: the lack of literature differentiating terrorism and violent extremist organizations (VEOs), terrorism incident databases, and the applicability of Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) to terrorism. Current open source literature and publicly available government sources do not differentiate between terrorism and VEOs; furthermore, they fail to define them. Addressing the lack of a comprehensive comparison of existing terrorism data sources, a matrix comparing a dozen terrorism databases is constructed, providing insight toward the array of data available. RTM, a method for spatial risk analysis at a micro level, has some applicability to terrorism research, particularlymore » for studies looking at risk indicators of terrorism. Leveraging attack data from multiple databases, combined with RTM, offers one avenue for closing existing research gaps in terrorism literature.« less

Multiple sclerosis, brain radiotherapy, and risk of neurotoxicity: The Mayo Clinic experience

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, Robert C.; Lachance, Daniel H.; Lucchinetti, Claudia F.

2006-11-15

Purpose: The aim of this study was a retrospective assessment of neurotoxicity in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) receiving external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) to the brain. Methods and Materials: We studied 15 consecutively treated patients with MS who received brain EBRT. Neurologic toxicity was assessed with the Common Toxicity Criteria v.3.0. Results: Median follow-up for the 5 living patients was 6.0 years (range, 3.3-27.4 years). No exacerbation of MS occurred in any patient during EBRT. Five patients had Grade 4 neurologic toxicity and 1 had possible Grade 5 toxicity. Kaplan-Meier estimated risk of neurotoxicity greater than Grade 4 at 5more » years was 57% (95% confidence interval, 27%-82%). Toxicity occurred at 37.5 to 54.0 Gy at a median of 1.0 year (range, 0.2-4.3 years) after EBRT. Univariate analysis showed an association between opposed-field irradiation of the temporal lobes, central white matter, and brainstem and increased risk of neurotoxicity (p < 0.04). Three of 6 cases of toxicity occurred in patients treated before 1986. Conclusions: External beam radiotherapy of the brain in patients with MS may be associated with an increased risk of neurotoxicity compared with patients without demyelinating illnesses. However, this risk is associated with treatment techniques that may not be comparable to modern, conformal radiotherapy.« less

Mapping groundwater contamination risk of multiple aquifers using multi-model ensemble of machine learning algorithms.

PubMed

Barzegar, Rahim; Moghaddam, Asghar Asghari; Deo, Ravinesh; Fijani, Elham; Tziritis, Evangelos

2018-04-15

Constructing accurate and reliable groundwater risk maps provide scientifically prudent and strategic measures for the protection and management of groundwater. The objectives of this paper are to design and validate machine learning based-risk maps using ensemble-based modelling with an integrative approach. We employ the extreme learning machines (ELM), multivariate regression splines (MARS), M5 Tree and support vector regression (SVR) applied in multiple aquifer systems (e.g. unconfined, semi-confined and confined) in the Marand plain, North West Iran, to encapsulate the merits of individual learning algorithms in a final committee-based ANN model. The DRASTIC Vulnerability Index (VI) ranged from 56.7 to 128.1, categorized with no risk, low and moderate vulnerability thresholds. The correlation coefficient (r) and Willmott's Index (d) between NO 3 concentrations and VI were 0.64 and 0.314, respectively. To introduce improvements in the original DRASTIC method, the vulnerability indices were adjusted by NO 3 concentrations, termed as the groundwater contamination risk (GCR). Seven DRASTIC parameters utilized as the model inputs and GCR values utilized as the outputs of individual machine learning models were served in the fully optimized committee-based ANN-predictive model. The correlation indicators demonstrated that the ELM and SVR models outperformed the MARS and M5 Tree models, by virtue of a larger d and r value. Subsequently, the r and d metrics for the ANN-committee based multi-model in the testing phase were 0.8889 and 0.7913, respectively; revealing the superiority of the integrated (or ensemble) machine learning models when compared with the original DRASTIC approach. The newly designed multi-model ensemble-based approach can be considered as a pragmatic step for mapping groundwater contamination risks of multiple aquifer systems with multi-model techniques, yielding the high accuracy of the ANN committee-based model. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B

Relationships Among Substance Use, Multiple Sexual Partners, and Condomless Sex.

PubMed

Zhao, Yunchuan Lucy; Kim, Heejung; Peltzer, Jill

2017-04-01

Male and female students manifest different behaviors in condomless sex. This cross-sectional, exploratory, correlational study examined the differences in risk factors for condomless sex between male and female high school students, using secondary data from 4,968 sexually active males and females participating in the 2011 National Youth Risk Behavior Survey. Results in descriptive statistics and multivariate binary logistic regressions revealed that condomless sex was reported as 39.70% in general. A greater proportion of females engaged in condomless sex (23.26%) than did males (16.44%). Physical abuse by sex partners was a common reason for failure to use condoms regardless of gender. Lower condom use was found in (1) those experiencing forced sex by a partner in males, (2) female smokers, and (3) female with multiple sex partners. Thus, sexual health education should address the different risk factors and consider gender characteristics to reduce condomless sex.

Multiple risk-behavior profiles of smokers with serious mental illness and motivation for change.

PubMed

Prochaska, Judith J; Fromont, Sebastien C; Delucchi, Kevin; Young-Wolff, Kelly C; Benowitz, Neal L; Hall, Stephen; Bonas, Thomas; Hall, Sharon M

2014-12-01

Individuals with serious mental illness (SMI) are dying on average 25 years prematurely. The leading causes are chronic preventable diseases. In the context of a tobacco-treatment trial, this exploratory study examined the behavioral risk profiles of adults with SMI to identify broader interventional needs. Recruited from five acute inpatient psychiatry units, participants were 693 adult smokers (recruitment rate = 76%, 50% male, 45% Caucasian, age M = 39, 49% had income < $10,000) diagnosed with mood disorders (71%), substance-use disorders (63%), posttraumatic stress disorder (39%), psychotic disorders (25%), and attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder (25%). The Staging Health Risk Assessment, the primary measure used in this study, screened for risk status and readiness to change 11 health behaviors, referencing the period prior to acute hospitalization. Participants averaged 5.2 (SD = 2.1) risk behaviors, including smoking (100%), high-fat diet (68%), inadequate fruits/vegetables (67%), poor sleep (53%), physical inactivity (52%), and marijuana use (46%). The percent prepared to change ranged from 23% for tobacco and marijuana to 76% for depression management. Latent class analysis differentiated three risk groups: the global higher risk group included patients elevated on all risk behaviors; the global lower risk group was low on all risks; and a mood and metabolic risk group, characterized by inactivity, unhealthy diet, sleep problems, and poor stress and depression management. The global higher risk group (11% of sample) was younger, largely male, and had the greatest number of risk behaviors and mental health diagnoses; had the most severe psychopathologies, addiction-treatment histories, and nicotine dependence; and the lowest confidence for quitting smoking and commitment to abstinence. Most smokers with SMI engaged in multiple risks. Expanding targets to treat co-occurring risks and personalizing treatment to individuals' multibehavioral profiles may

Public Health Risks of Multiple-Drug-Resistant Enterococcus spp. in Southeast Asia

PubMed Central

Lee, Sui Mae; Rahman, Sadequr

2015-01-01

Enterococci rank as one of the leading causes of nosocomial infections, such as urinary tract infections, surgical wound infections, and endocarditis, in humans. These infections can be hard to treat because of the rising incidence of antibiotic resistance. Enterococci inhabiting nonhuman reservoirs appear to play a critical role in the acquisition and dissemination of antibiotic resistance determinants. The spread of antibiotic resistance has become a major concern in both human and veterinary medicine, especially in Southeast Asia, where many developing countries have poor legislation and regulations to control the supply and excessive use of antimicrobials. This review addresses the occurrence of antibiotic-resistant enterococci in Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries and proposes infection control measures that should be applied to limit the spread of multiple-drug-resistant enterococci. PMID:26150452

A Contemporary Prostate Biopsy Risk Calculator Based on Multiple Heterogeneous Cohorts.

PubMed

Ankerst, Donna P; Straubinger, Johanna; Selig, Katharina; Guerrios, Lourdes; De Hoedt, Amanda; Hernandez, Javier; Liss, Michael A; Leach, Robin J; Freedland, Stephen J; Kattan, Michael W; Nam, Robert; Haese, Alexander; Montorsi, Francesco; Boorjian, Stephen A; Cooperberg, Matthew R; Poyet, Cedric; Vertosick, Emily; Vickers, Andrew J

2018-05-16

Prostate cancer prediction tools provide quantitative guidance for doctor-patient decision-making regarding biopsy. The widely used online Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator (PCPTRC) utilized data from the 1990s based on six-core biopsies and outdated grading systems. We prospectively gathered data from men undergoing prostate biopsy in multiple diverse North American and European institutions participating in the Prostate Biopsy Collaborative Group (PBCG) in order to build a state-of-the-art risk prediction tool. We obtained data from 15 611 men undergoing 16 369 prostate biopsies during 2006-2017 at eight North American institutions for model-building and three European institutions for validation. We used multinomial logistic regression to estimate the risks of high-grade prostate cancer (Gleason score ≥7) on biopsy based on clinical characteristics, including age, prostate-specific antigen, digital rectal exam, African ancestry, first-degree family history, and prior negative biopsy. We compared the PBCG model to the PCPTRC using internal cross-validation and external validation on the European cohorts. Cross-validation on the North American cohorts (5992 biopsies) yielded the PBCG model area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) as 75.5% (95% confidence interval: 74.2-76.8), a small improvement over the AUC of 72.3% (70.9-73.7) for the PCPTRC (p<0.0001). However, calibration and clinical net benefit were far superior for the PBCG model. Using a risk threshold of 10%, clinical use of the PBCG model would lead to the equivalent of 25 fewer biopsies per 1000 patients without missing any high-grade cancers. Results were similar on external validation on 10 377 European biopsies. The PBCG model should be used in place of the PCPTRC for prediction of prostate biopsy outcome. A contemporary risk tool for outcomes on prostate biopsy based on the routine clinical risk factors is now available for informed decision-making. Copyright �

Meta-analysis of the association of MTHFR polymorphisms with multiple myeloma risk

PubMed Central

Ma, Li-Min; Ruan, Lin-Hai; Yang, Hai-Ping

2015-01-01

The association of methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) polymorphisms with multiple myeloma (MM) risk has been explored, but the results remain controversial. Thus, a meta-analysis was performed to provide a comprehensively estimate. The case-control studies about MTHFR C677T and A1298C polymorphisms with MM risk were collected by searching PubMed, Elsevier, China National Knowledge Infrastructure and Wanfang Databases. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were applied to assess the strength of association. Overall, no significant association was found between MTHFR A1298C polymorphism and MM risk under all four genetic models (AC vs. AA, OR = 0.99, 95%CI = 0.82-1.20; CC vs. AA, OR = 1.14, 95%CI = 0.77-1.68; recessive model, OR = 1.10, 95%CI = 0.76-1.59; dominant model, OR = 1.01, 95%CI = 0.84-1.22). The risk was also not significantly altered for C677T polymorphism and MM in overall comparisons (CT vs. CC, OR = 1.04, 95%CI = 0.93-1.17; TT vs. CC, OR = 1.16, 95%CI = 0.98-1.37; recessive model, OR = 1.13, 95%CI = 0.98-1.32; dominant model, OR = 1.07, 95%CI = 0.96-1.20). In subgroup analyses by ethnicity, no significant association was observed in both Caucasians and Asians. This meta-analysis suggested that MTHFR polymorphisms were not associated with MM risk. PMID:26022785

Contributions of vitamin D response elements and HLA promoters to multiple sclerosis risk.

PubMed

Nolan, David; Castley, Alison; Tschochner, Monika; James, Ian; Qiu, Wei; Sayer, David; Christiansen, Frank T; Witt, Campbell; Mastaglia, Frank; Carroll, William; Kermode, Allan

2012-08-07

The identification of a vitamin D-responsive (VDRE) motif within the HLA-DRB1*15:01 promoter region provides an attractive explanation for the combined effects of HLA-DR inheritance and vitamin D exposure on multiple sclerosis (MS) risk. We therefore sought to incorporate HLA-DRB1 promoter variation, including the VDRE motif, in an assessment of HLA-DRB1-associated MS risk. We utilized 32 homozygous HLA cell lines (covering 17 DRB1 alleles) and 53 heterozygote MS samples (20 DRB1 alleles) for HLA-DRB1 promoter sequencing. The influence of HLA-DRB1 variation on MS risk was then assessed among 466 MS cases and 498 controls. The majority of HLA*DRB1 alleles (including HLA-DRB1*15:01) express the functional VDRE motif, apart from HLA-DRB1*04, *07, and *09 alleles that comprise the HLA-DR53 serologic group. Allele-specific variation within functional X-box and Y-box motifs was also associated with serologically defined HLA-DR haplotypes. Incorporating these results in an analysis of MS risk, we identified a strong protective effect of HLA-DRB1*04, *07, and *09 (DR53) alleles (p = 10(-12)) and elevated risk associated with DRB1*15 and *16 (DR51) and *08 (DR8) alleles (p < 10(-18)). HLA-DRB1 groups corresponding to serologic HLA-DR profiles as well as promoter polymorphism haplotypes effectively stratified MS risk over an 11-fold range, suggesting functional relationships between risk-modifying HLA-DRB1 alleles. An independent contribution of VDRE motif variation to increase MS risk was not discernible, although vitamin D-dependent regulation of HLA-DR expression may still play an important role given that HLA-DRB1*04/*07/*09 (DR53) alleles that express the "nonresponsive" VDRE motif were associated with significantly reduced risk of MS.

Association of Cancer Susceptibility Variants with Risk of Multiple Primary Cancers: the Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology Study

PubMed Central

Park, S. Lani; Caberto, Christian P.; Lin, Yi; Goodloe, Robert J.; Dumitrescu, Logan; Love, Shelly-Ann; Matise, Tara C.; Hindorff, Lucia A.; Fowke, Jay H.; Schumacher, Fredrick R.; Beebe-Dimmer, Jennifer; Chen, Chu; Hou, Lifang; Thomas, Fridtjof; Deelman, Ewa; Han, Ying; Peters, Ulrike; North, Kari E.; Heiss, Gerardo; Crawford, Dana C.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Wilkens, Lynne R.; Bush, William S.; Kooperberg, Charles; Cheng, Iona; Le Marchand, Loïc

2014-01-01

Background Multiple primary cancers account for ~16% of all incident cancers in the U.S.. While genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified many common genetic variants associated with various cancer sites, no study has examined the association of these genetic variants with risk of multiple primary cancers (MPC). Methods As part of the NHGRI Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) study, we used data from the Multiethnic Cohort and Women’s Health Initiative. Incident MPC (IMPC) cases (n=1,385) were defined as participants diagnosed with >1 incident cancers after cohort entry. Participants diagnosed with only one incident cancer after cohort entry with follow-up equal to or longer than IMPC cases served as controls (single-index cancer controls; n= 9,626). Fixed-effects meta-analyses of unconditional logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the association between cancer risk variants and IMPC risk. To account for multiple comparisons, we used the false positive report probability (FPRP) to determine statistical significance. Results A nicotine dependence-associated and lung cancer variant, CHRNA3 rs578776 (OR=1.16, 95% CI=1.05–1.26; p=0.004) and two breast cancer variants, EMBP1 rs11249433 and TOX3 rs3803662 (OR=1.16, 95% CI=1.04–1.28; p=0.005 and OR=1.13, 95% CI=1.03–1.23; p=0.006) were significantly associated with risk of IMPC. The associations for rs578776 and rs11249433 remained (p<0.05) after removing subjects who had lung or breast cancers, respectively (p-values≤0.046). These associations did not show significant heterogeneity by smoking status (p-heterogeneity≥0.53). Conclusions Our study has identified rs578776 and rs11249433 as risk variants for IMPC. Impact These findings may help to identify genetic regions associated with IMPC risk. PMID:25139936

Advancing efforts to address youth violence involvement.

PubMed

Weist, M D; Cooley-Quille, M

2001-06-01

Discusses the increased public attention on violence-related problems among youth and the concomitant increased diversity in research. Youth violence involvement is a complex construct that includes violence experienced in multiple settings (home, school, neighborhood) and in multiple forms (as victims, witnesses, perpetrators, and through family members, friends, and the media). Potential impacts of such violence involvement are considerable, including increased internalizing and externalizing behaviors among youth and future problems in school adjustment and life-course development. This introductory article reviews key dimensions of youth-related violence, describes an American Psychological Association Task Force (Division 12) developed to advance relevant research, and presents examples of national resources and efforts that attempt to address this critical public health issue.

Individual versus systemic risk and the Regulator's Dilemma.

PubMed

Beale, Nicholas; Rand, David G; Battey, Heather; Croxson, Karen; May, Robert M; Nowak, Martin A

2011-08-02

The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 exposed critical weaknesses in the financial system. Many proposals for financial reform address the need for systemic regulation--that is, regulation focused on the soundness of the whole financial system and not just that of individual institutions. In this paper, we study one particular problem faced by a systemic regulator: the tension between the distribution of assets that individual banks would like to hold and the distribution across banks that best supports system stability if greater weight is given to avoiding multiple bank failures. By diversifying its risks, a bank lowers its own probability of failure. However, if many banks diversify their risks in similar ways, then the probability of multiple failures can increase. As more banks fail simultaneously, the economic disruption tends to increase disproportionately. We show that, in model systems, the expected systemic cost of multiple failures can be largely explained by two global parameters of risk exposure and diversity, which can be assessed in terms of the risk exposures of individual actors. This observation hints at the possibility of regulatory intervention to promote systemic stability by incentivizing a more diverse diversification among banks. Such intervention offers the prospect of an additional lever in the armory of regulators, potentially allowing some combination of improved system stability and reduced need for additional capital.

Individual versus systemic risk and the Regulator's Dilemma

PubMed Central

Beale, Nicholas; Rand, David G.; Battey, Heather; Croxson, Karen; May, Robert M.; Nowak, Martin A.

2011-01-01

The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 exposed critical weaknesses in the financial system. Many proposals for financial reform address the need for systemic regulation—that is, regulation focused on the soundness of the whole financial system and not just that of individual institutions. In this paper, we study one particular problem faced by a systemic regulator: the tension between the distribution of assets that individual banks would like to hold and the distribution across banks that best supports system stability if greater weight is given to avoiding multiple bank failures. By diversifying its risks, a bank lowers its own probability of failure. However, if many banks diversify their risks in similar ways, then the probability of multiple failures can increase. As more banks fail simultaneously, the economic disruption tends to increase disproportionately. We show that, in model systems, the expected systemic cost of multiple failures can be largely explained by two global parameters of risk exposure and diversity, which can be assessed in terms of the risk exposures of individual actors. This observation hints at the possibility of regulatory intervention to promote systemic stability by incentivizing a more diverse diversification among banks. Such intervention offers the prospect of an additional lever in the armory of regulators, potentially allowing some combination of improved system stability and reduced need for additional capital. PMID:21768387

Can an Internet-based health risk assessment highlight problems of heart disease risk factor awareness? A cross-sectional analysis.

PubMed

Dickerson, Justin B; McNeal, Catherine J; Tsai, Ginger; Rivera, Cathleen M; Smith, Matthew Lee; Ohsfeldt, Robert L; Ory, Marcia G

2014-04-18

Health risk assessments are becoming more popular as a tool to conveniently and effectively reach community-dwelling adults who may be at risk for serious chronic conditions such as coronary heart disease (CHD). The use of such instruments to improve adults' risk factor awareness and concordance with clinically measured risk factor values could be an opportunity to advance public health knowledge and build effective interventions. The objective of this study was to determine if an Internet-based health risk assessment can highlight important aspects of agreement between respondents' self-reported and clinically measured CHD risk factors for community-dwelling adults who may be at risk for CHD. Data from an Internet-based cardiovascular health risk assessment (Heart Aware) administered to community-dwelling adults at 127 clinical sites were analyzed. Respondents were recruited through individual hospital marketing campaigns, such as media advertising and print media, found throughout inpatient and outpatient facilities. CHD risk factors from the Framingham Heart Study were examined. Weighted kappa statistics were calculated to measure interrater agreement between respondents' self-reported and clinically measured CHD risk factors. Weighted kappa statistics were then calculated for each sample by strata of overall 10-year CHD risk. Three samples were drawn based on strategies for treating missing data: a listwise deleted sample, a pairwise deleted sample, and a multiple imputation (MI) sample. The MI sample (n=16,879) was most appropriate for addressing missing data. No CHD risk factor had better than marginal interrater agreement (κ>.60). High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) exhibited suboptimal interrater agreement that deteriorated (eg, κ<.30) as overall CHD risk increased. Conversely, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) interrater agreement improved (eg, up to κ=.25) as overall CHD risk increased. Overall CHD risk of the sample was lower than

The renal protective effect of angiotensin receptor blockers depends on intra-individual response variation in multiple risk markers.

PubMed

Schievink, Bauke; de Zeeuw, Dick; Parving, Hans-Henrik; Rossing, Peter; Lambers Heerspink, Hiddo Jan

2015-10-01

Angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) are renoprotective and targeted to blood pressure. However, ARBs have multiple other (off-target) effects which may affect renal outcome. It is unknown whether on-target and off-target effects are congruent within individuals. If not, this variation in short term effects may have important implications for the prediction of individual long term renal outcomes. Our aim was to assess intra-individual variability in multiple parameters in response to ARBs in type 2 diabetes. Changes in systolic blood pressure (SBP), albuminuria, potassium, haemoglobin, cholesterol and uric acid after 6 months of losartan treatment were assessed in the RENAAL database. Improvement in predictive performance of renal outcomes (ESRD or doubling serum creatinine) for each individual using ARB-induced changes in all risk markers was assessed by the relative integrative discrimination index (RIDI). SBP response showed high variability (mean -5.7 mmHg, 5(th) to 95(th) percentile -36.5 to +24.0 mmHg) between individuals. Changes in off-target parameters also showed high variability between individuals. No congruency was observed between responses to losartan in multiple parameters within individuals. Using individual responses in all risk markers significantly improved renal risk prediction (RIDI 30.4%, P < 0.01) compared with using only SBP changes. Results were successfully replicated in two independent trials with irbesartan, IDNT and IRMA-2. In this post hoc analysis we showed that ARBs have multiple off-target effects which vary between and within individuals. Combining all ARB-induced responses beyond SBP provides a more accurate prediction of who will benefit from ARB therapy. Prospective trials are required to validate these findings. © 2015 The British Pharmacological Society.

Multiple Risks and Educational Well Being: A Population-Based Investigation of Threats to Early School Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rouse, Heather L.; Fantuzzo, John W.

2009-01-01

The current research study used a developmental-epidemiological approach to examine the prevalence and impact of multiple risks on educational outcomes for an entire population of second grade children in a low-income, urban public school system. The Kids Integrated Data System (KIDS) provided information about children's entire histories of…

A demand-side view of risk adjustment.

PubMed

Feldman, R; Dowd, B E; Maciejewski, M

2001-01-01

This paper analyzes the efficient allocation of consumers to health plans. Specifically, we address the question of why employers that offer multiple health plans often make larger contributions to the premiums of the high-cost plans. Our perspective is that the subsidy for high-cost plans represents a form of demand-side risk adjustment that improves efficiency. Without such subsidies (and in the absence of formal risk adjustment), too few employees would choose the high-cost plans preferred by high-risk workers. We test the theory by estimating a model of the employer premium subsidy, using data from a survey of large public employers in 1994. Our empirical analysis shows that employers are more likely to subsidize high-cost plans when the benefits of risk adjustment are greater. The findings suggest that the premium subsidy can accomplish some of the benefits of formal risk adjustment.

Carfilzomib significantly improves the progression-free survival of high-risk patients in multiple myeloma.

PubMed

Avet-Loiseau, Hervé; Fonseca, Rafael; Siegel, David; Dimopoulos, Meletios A; Špička, Ivan; Masszi, Tamás; Hájek, Roman; Rosiñol, Laura; Goranova-Marinova, Vesselina; Mihaylov, Georgi; Maisnar, Vladimír; Mateos, Maria-Victoria; Wang, Michael; Niesvizky, Ruben; Oriol, Albert; Jakubowiak, Andrzej; Minarik, Jiri; Palumbo, Antonio; Bensinger, William; Kukreti, Vishal; Ben-Yehuda, Dina; Stewart, A Keith; Obreja, Mihaela; Moreau, Philippe

2016-09-01

The presence of certain high-risk cytogenetic abnormalities, such as translocations (4;14) and (14;16) and deletion (17p), are known to have a negative impact on survival in multiple myeloma (MM). The phase 3 study ASPIRE (N = 792) demonstrated that progression-free survival (PFS) was significantly improved with carfilzomib, lenalidomide, and dexamethasone (KRd), compared with lenalidomide and dexamethasone (Rd) in relapsed MM. This preplanned subgroup analysis of ASPIRE was conducted to evaluate KRd vs Rd by baseline cytogenetics according to fluorescence in situ hybridization. Of 417 patients with known cytogenetic risk status, 100 patients (24%) were categorized with high-risk cytogenetics (KRd, n = 48; Rd, n = 52) and 317 (76%) were categorized with standard-risk cytogenetics (KRd, n = 147; Rd, n = 170). For patients with high-risk cytogenetics, treatment with KRd resulted in a median PFS of 23.1 months, a 9-month improvement relative to treatment with Rd. For patients with standard-risk cytogenetics, treatment with KRd led to a 10-month improvement in median PFS vs Rd. The overall response rates for KRd vs Rd were 79.2% vs 59.6% (high-risk cytogenetics) and 91.2% vs 73.5% (standard-risk cytogenetics); approximately fivefold as many patients with high- or standard-risk cytogenetics achieved a complete response or better with KRd vs Rd (29.2% vs 5.8% and 38.1% vs 6.5%, respectively). KRd improved but did not abrogate the poor prognosis associated with high-risk cytogenetics. This regimen had a favorable benefit-risk profile in patients with relapsed MM, irrespective of cytogenetic risk status, and should be considered a standard of care in these patients. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT01080391. © 2016 by The American Society of Hematology.

Carfilzomib significantly improves the progression-free survival of high-risk patients in multiple myeloma

PubMed Central

Fonseca, Rafael; Siegel, David; Dimopoulos, Meletios A.; Špička, Ivan; Masszi, Tamás; Hájek, Roman; Rosiñol, Laura; Goranova-Marinova, Vesselina; Mihaylov, Georgi; Maisnar, Vladimír; Mateos, Maria-Victoria; Wang, Michael; Niesvizky, Ruben; Oriol, Albert; Jakubowiak, Andrzej; Minarik, Jiri; Palumbo, Antonio; Bensinger, William; Kukreti, Vishal; Ben-Yehuda, Dina; Stewart, A. Keith; Obreja, Mihaela; Moreau, Philippe

2016-01-01

The presence of certain high-risk cytogenetic abnormalities, such as translocations (4;14) and (14;16) and deletion (17p), are known to have a negative impact on survival in multiple myeloma (MM). The phase 3 study ASPIRE (N = 792) demonstrated that progression-free survival (PFS) was significantly improved with carfilzomib, lenalidomide, and dexamethasone (KRd), compared with lenalidomide and dexamethasone (Rd) in relapsed MM. This preplanned subgroup analysis of ASPIRE was conducted to evaluate KRd vs Rd by baseline cytogenetics according to fluorescence in situ hybridization. Of 417 patients with known cytogenetic risk status, 100 patients (24%) were categorized with high-risk cytogenetics (KRd, n = 48; Rd, n = 52) and 317 (76%) were categorized with standard-risk cytogenetics (KRd, n = 147; Rd, n = 170). For patients with high-risk cytogenetics, treatment with KRd resulted in a median PFS of 23.1 months, a 9-month improvement relative to treatment with Rd. For patients with standard-risk cytogenetics, treatment with KRd led to a 10-month improvement in median PFS vs Rd. The overall response rates for KRd vs Rd were 79.2% vs 59.6% (high-risk cytogenetics) and 91.2% vs 73.5% (standard-risk cytogenetics); approximately fivefold as many patients with high- or standard-risk cytogenetics achieved a complete response or better with KRd vs Rd (29.2% vs 5.8% and 38.1% vs 6.5%, respectively). KRd improved but did not abrogate the poor prognosis associated with high-risk cytogenetics. This regimen had a favorable benefit-risk profile in patients with relapsed MM, irrespective of cytogenetic risk status, and should be considered a standard of care in these patients. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT01080391. PMID:27439911

[Risk factors for the development of pneumonia in multiple injured patients. Results of a prospective clinical trial].

PubMed

Andermahr, J; Hensler, T; Sauerland, S; Greb, A; Helling, H-J; Prokop, A; Neugebauer, E A M; Rehm, K E

2003-05-01

Pneumonia is the most common infectious complication in multiple trauma patients. In a prospective clinical cohort study, 266 multiply injured patients were examined for the development of pneumonia. Various risk factors were tested in uni- and multivariate analyses. Three different definitions of pneumonia were used in order to examine how results depended on definition. The incidence of pneumonia was 41%, but varied with definition (30-50%). Injuries to the thorax, head,and abdomen were associated with a significantly increased risk of pneumonia (adjusted relative risk: 1.77, 1.97,and 1.52, respectively).Furthermore, increasing age led to a higher risk of pneumonia. Although the primary analysis revealed a higher pneumonia risk in male patients (adjusted relative risk: 2.23; 95% CI: 1.43-3.05), this result could not be consistently reproduced when using other definitions of pneumonia. Trunk and head injuries and age are proven risk factors for developing posttraumatic pneumonia. The association between male gender and an increased rate of infectious complications remained questionable.

Shift work at young age is associated with increased risk of multiple sclerosis in a Danish population.

PubMed

Gustavsen, S; Søndergaard, H B; Oturai, D B; Laursen, B; Laursen, J H; Magyari, M; Ullum, H; Larsen, M H; Sellebjerg, F; Oturai, A B

2016-09-01

Epidemiological studies suggest an important role for environmental factors in developing multiple sclerosis (MS). Furthermore several studies have indicated that the effect of environmental factors may be especially pronounced in adolescents. Recently only one study investigated and found that shift work at young age is associated with an increased risk of developing MS. In this study we focused on the effect of shift work in the vulnerable period between 15-19 years. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between shift work at young age and the risk of developing MS. We performed a large case-control study including 1723 patients diagnosed with MS and 4067 controls. MS patients were recruited from the Danish Multiple Sclerosis Biobank and controls from The Danish Blood Donor Study. Information on working patterns and lifestyle factors was obtained using a comprehensive lifestyle-environmental factor questionnaire with participants enrolled between 2009 and 2014. Logistic regression models were used to investigate the association between shift work at age 15-19 years and the subsequent risk of MS and were controlled for effects due to established MS risk factors. We found a statistically significant association when total numbers of night shifts were compared with non-shift workers. For every additional 100 night shifts the odds ratio (OR) for MS was 1.20 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.08-1.34, p=0.001). Increasing intensity of shift work also increased MS risk. For every additional night per month the OR was 1.04 (95% CI, 1.01-1.06, p=0.002). Duration of shift work in years was not associated with risk of MS. This study supports a statistically significant association between shift work at age 15-19 years and MS risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using impedance cardiography to detect subclinical cardiovascular disease in women with multiple risk factors: a pilot study.

PubMed

Demarzo, Arthur P

2009-01-01

Early detection of cardiovascular disease (CVD) could initiate appropriate treatment and prevent progression. This study used impedance cardiography (ICG) waveform analysis with postural change to detect functional CVD in women older than 40 years with no history of CVD and >or=2 of the following risk factors: cigarette smoking, poor diet, physical inactivity, central adiposity, family history of premature CVD, hypertension, and dyslipidemia. A study group of 32 women underwent ICG in standing and supine positions. An age-matched control group had 20 women with an active lifestyle, no risk factors, and no history of CVD. All women in the control group had normal ICG data. All women in the study group had some abnormal ICG data, with 28 (87.5%) having multiple ICG abnormalities. ICG data indicated that 13 (40.6%) had ventricular dysfunction, 14 (43.8%) had high vascular resistive load, and 30 (93.8%) had elevated vascular pulsatile load. The data suggest that subclinical CVD, detectable by ICG, is prevalent in women older than 40 years with multiple risk factors. Abnormal ICG results could expedite the initiation of customized treatment as part of a preventive approach to CVD. (c) 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Direction Finding Using Multiple MEMS Acoustic Sensors

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-01

ADDRESS(ES) Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93943-5000 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME...6 B. OBJECTIVE AND THESIS ORGANIZATION ..................................10 II. DIRECTION FINDING USING MULTIPLE

Risks of falls in subjects with multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Cattaneo, Davide; De Nuzzo, Carmela; Fascia, Teresa; Macalli, Marco; Pisoni, Ivana; Cardini, Roldano

2002-06-01

To quantify fall risk among patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) and to report the importance of variables associated with falls. Retrospective case-control study design with a 2-group sample of convenience. A hospital and home settings in Italy. A convenience sample of 50 people with MS divided into 2 groups according to their reports of falls. Not applicable. Subjects were assessed with questionnaires for cognitive ability and were measured on their ability to maintain balance, to walk, and to perform daily life activities. Data regarding patients' strength, spasticity, and transfer skills impairment were also collected. No statistical differences were found between groups of fallers and nonfallers using variables pertaining to years after onset, age, gender, and Mini-Mental State Examination. Near statistically significant differences were found in activities of daily living and transfer skills (P<.05). Three variables were associated with fall status: balance, ability to walk, and use of a cane (P<.01). Those variables were analyzed using a logistic regression. The model was able to predict fallers with a sensitivity of 90.9% and a specificity of 58.8%. Variables pertaining to balance skills, gait impairment, and use of a cane differed between fallers and nonfallers groups and the incidence of those variables can be used as a predictive model to quantify fall risk in patients suffering from MS. These findings emphasize the multifactorial nature of falls in this patient population. Assessment of different aspects of motor impairment and the accurate determination of factors contributing to falls are necessary for individual patient management and therapy and for the development of a prevention program for falls. Copyright 2002 by the American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine and the American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation

Empirically Examining the Risk of Intimate Partner Violence: The Revised Domestic Violence Screening Instrument (DVSI-R)

PubMed Central

Grant, Stephen R

2006-01-01

SYNOPSIS Objective This study extends recent research on assessing the risk of intimate partner violence by determining the concurrent and predictive validity of a revised version of the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument (DVSI-R) and whether evidence of such validity is sustained independent of perpetrator demographic characteristics and forms of intimate violence. The analyses highlight violent incidents involving multiple victims as an indicator of “severe” violence. Previous research did not address these issues. Methods Data were analyzed on 14,970 assessments conducted in the State of Connecticut from September 1, 2004 through May 2, 2005. Hierarchical regression and receiver operating characteristic analyses were used to address the objectives of this research. Results The empirical findings support the concurrent and predictive validity of the DVSI-R and show that it is robust in its applicability. The findings further show that incidents involving multiple victims are highly associated with DVSI-R risk scores and recidivistic violence. Conclusion Validating and demonstrating the robustness of a risk assessment instrument is only a first step in preventing violence involving intimate partners or others in family or family-like relationships. The challenge is to train professionals responsible for addressing the problem of such violence to link valid risk assessments to well-crafted strategies of supervision and treatment so that the victimized or other potential victims are protected and perpetrators are held accountable for their actions. PMID:16827441

The Role of the Gut Microbiome in Multiple Sclerosis Risk and Progression: Towards Characterization of the "MS Microbiome".

PubMed

Pröbstel, Anne-Katrin; Baranzini, Sergio E

2018-01-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the prototypic complex disease, in which both genes and the environment contribute to its pathogenesis. To date, > 200 independent loci across the genome have been associated with MS risk. However, these only explain a fraction of the total phenotypic variance, suggesting the possible presence of additional genetic factors, and, most likely, also environmental factors. New DNA sequencing technologies have enabled the sequencing of all kinds of microorganisms, including those living in and around humans (i.e., microbiomes). The study of bacterial populations inhabiting the gut is of particular interest in autoimmune diseases owing to their key role in shaping immune responses. In this review, we address the potential crosstalk between B cells and the gut microbiota, a relevant scenario in light of recently approved anti-B-cell therapies for MS. In addition, we review recent efforts to characterize the gut microbiome in patients with MS and discuss potential challenges and future opportunities. Finally, we describe the international MS microbiome study, a multicenter effort to study a large population of patients with MS and their healthy household partners to define the core MS microbiome, how it is shaped by disease-modifying therapies, and to explore potential therapeutic interventions.

Developing effective interuniversity partnerships and community-based research to address health disparities.

PubMed

Carey, Timothy S; Howard, Daniel L; Goldmon, Moses; Roberson, James T; Godley, Paul A; Ammerman, Alice

2005-11-01

Health disparities are an enormous challenge to American society. Addressing these disparities is a priority for U.S. society and especially for institutions of higher learning, with their threefold mission of education, service, and research. Collaboration across multiple intellectual disciplines will be critical as universities address health disparities. In addition, universities must collaborate with communities, with state partners, and with each other. Development of these collaborations must be sensitive to the history and unique characteristics of each academic institution and population. The authors describe the challenges of all three types of collaboration, but primarily focus on collaboration between research-intensive universities and historically black colleges and universities. The authors describe a four-year collaboration between Shaw University and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC-CH). These universities strategically developed multiple research initiatives to address health disparities, building on modest early success and personal relationships. These activities included participation by Shaw faculty in faculty development activities, multiple collaborative pilot studies, and joint participation in securing grants from the Agency for Health care Research and Quality of the federal Department of Health and Human Services and the National Institutes of Health, including a P-60 Project EXPORT center grant. These multiple activities were sometimes led by UNC-CH, sometimes by Shaw University. Open discussion of problems as they arose, realistic expectations, and mutual recognition of the strengths of each institution and its faculty have been critical in achieving successful collaboration to date.

Developing Effective Interuniversity Partnerships and Community-Based Research to Address Health Disparities

PubMed Central

Carey, Timothy S.; Howard, Daniel L.; Goldmon, Moses; Roberson, James T.; Godley, Paul A.; Ammerman, Alice

2009-01-01

Health disparities are an enormous challenge to American society. Addressing these disparities is a priority for U.S. society and especially for institutions of higher learning, with their threefold mission of education, service, and research. Collaboration across multiple intellectual disciplines will be critical as universities address health disparities. In addition, universities must collaborate with communities, with state partners, and with each other. Development of these collaborations must be sensitive to the history and unique characteristics of each academic institution and population. The authors describe the challenges of all three types of collaboration, but primarily focus on collaboration between research-intensive universities and historically black colleges and universities. The authors describe a four-year collaboration between Shaw University and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC-CH). These universities strategically developed multiple research initiatives to address health disparities, building on modest early success and personal relationships. These activities included participation by Shaw faculty in faculty development activities, multiple collaborative pilot studies, and joint participation in securing grants from the Agency for Health care Research and Quality of the federal Department of Health and Human Services and the National Institutes of Health, including a P-60 Project EXPORT center grant. These multiple activities were sometimes led by UNC-CH, sometimes by Shaw University. Open discussion of problems as they arose, realistic expectations, and mutual recognition of the strengths of each institution and its faculty have been critical in achieving successful collaboration to date. PMID:16249303

Addressing the Aging Crisis in U.S. Criminal Justice Healthcare

PubMed Central

Williams, Brie A.; Goodwin, James S.; Baillargeon, Jacques; Ahalt, Cyrus; Walter, Louise C.

2012-01-01

The U.S. criminal justice population is aging at a significantly more rapid rate than the overall U.S. population: the population of older adults in prison has more than tripled since 1990. This increase is at the root of a prison healthcare crisis that is spilling into communities and public healthcare systems as nearly 95% of prisoners are eventually released. The graying prison population is also straining state and local budgets. In prison, older prisoners cost approximately three times as much as younger prisoners to incarcerate, largely due to healthcare costs. In the community, older former prisoners present the least risk of recidivism yet are vulnerable to serious and costly social and medical challenges such as housing instability, poor employability, multiple chronic health conditions, and health-related mortality. Older current and former prisoners, however, are largely ignored in the current geriatrics evidence base. Knowledge about the health, functional and cognitive status of older prisoners is limited, with even less known about risk factors for long term poor health outcomes during and after incarceration. This article provides an overview of aging in the criminal justice system. It then describes how geriatric models of care could be adapted to address the mounting older prisoner healthcare crisis and identifies areas where additional research is needed to explore prison-specific models of care for older adults. PMID:22642489

Community-Engaged Modeling of Geographic and Demographic Patterns of Multiple Public Health Risk Factors

PubMed Central

Basra, Komal; Fabian, M. Patricia; Holberger, Raymond R.; French, Robert

2017-01-01

Many health risk factors are intervention targets within communities, but information regarding high-risk subpopulations is rarely available at a geographic resolution that is relevant for community-scale interventions. Researchers and community partners in New Bedford, Massachusetts (USA) collaboratively identified high-priority behaviors and health outcomes of interest available in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). We developed multivariable regression models from the BRFSS explaining variability in exercise, fruit and vegetable consumption, body mass index, and diabetes prevalence as a function of demographic and behavioral characteristics, and linked these models with population microdata developed using spatial microsimulation to characterize high-risk populations and locations. Individuals with lower income and educational attainment had lower rates of multiple health-promoting behaviors (e.g., fruit and vegetable consumption and exercise) and higher rates of self-reported diabetes. Our models in combination with the simulated population microdata identified census tracts with an elevated percentage of high-risk subpopulations, information community partners can use to prioritize funding and intervention programs. Multi-stressor modeling using data from public databases and microsimulation methods for characterizing high-resolution spatial patterns of population attributes, coupled with strong community partner engagement, can provide significant insight for intervention. Our methodology is transferrable to other communities. PMID:28684710

Multiplicative interaction of functional inflammasome genetic variants in determining the risk of gout.

PubMed

McKinney, Cushla; Stamp, Lisa K; Dalbeth, Nicola; Topless, Ruth K; Day, Richard O; Kannangara, Diluk Rw; Williams, Kenneth M; Janssen, Matthijs; Jansen, Timothy L; Joosten, Leo A; Radstake, Timothy R; Riches, Philip L; Tausche, Anne-Kathrin; Lioté, Frederic; So, Alexander; Merriman, Tony R

2015-10-13

The acute gout flare results from a localised self-limiting innate immune response to monosodium urate (MSU) crystals deposited in joints in hyperuricaemic individuals. Activation of the caspase recruitment domain-containing protein 8 (CARD8) NOD-like receptor pyrin-containing 3 (NLRP3) inflammasome by MSU crystals and production of mature interleukin-1β (IL-1β) is central to acute gouty arthritis. However very little is known about genetic control of the innate immune response involved in acute gouty arthritis. Therefore our aim was to test functional single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) variants in the toll-like receptor (TLR)-inflammasome-IL-1β axis for association with gout. 1,494 gout cases of European and 863 gout cases of New Zealand (NZ) Polynesian (Māori and Pacific Island) ancestry were included. Gout was diagnosed by the 1977 ARA gout classification criteria. There were 1,030 Polynesian controls and 10,942 European controls including from the publicly-available Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) and Framingham Heart (FHS) studies. The ten SNPs were either genotyped by Sequenom MassArray or by Affymetrix SNP array or imputed in the ARIC and FHS datasets. Allelic association was done by logistic regression adjusting by age and sex with European and Polynesian data combined by meta-analysis. Sample sets were pooled for multiplicative interaction analysis, which was also adjusted by sample set. Eleven SNPs were tested in the TLR2, CD14, IL1B, CARD8, NLRP3, MYD88, P2RX7, DAPK1 and TNXIP genes. Nominally significant (P < 0.05) associations with gout were detected at CARD8 rs2043211 (OR = 1.12, P = 0.007), IL1B rs1143623 (OR = 1.10, P = 0.020) and CD14 rs2569190 (OR = 1.08; P = 0.036). There was significant multiplicative interaction between CARD8 and IL1B (P = 0.005), with the IL1B risk genotype amplifying the risk effect of CARD8. There is evidence for association of gout with functional variants in CARD8, IL1B and CD14. The gout-associated allele

Addressing poverty as risk for disease: recommendations from CDC's consultation on microenterprise as HIV prevention.

PubMed

Stratford, Dale; Mizuno, Yuko; Williams, Kim; Courtenay-Quirk, Cari; O'leary, Ann

2008-01-01

In March 2006, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) convened a consultation meeting to explore microenterprise as a potential human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) prevention intervention. The impulse to link microenterprise with HIV/AIDS prevention was driven by the fact that poverty is a significant factor contributing to the risk for infection. Because increasingly high rates of HIV infection are occurring among women, particularly among poor African American women in the southern United States, we focused the consultation on microenterprise as an intervention among that population. In the international arena, income generated by microenterprise has contributed to improving family and community health outcomes. This article summarizes the contributions made to the consultation by participants from the diverse fields of microenterprise, microfinance, women's studies, and public health. The article ends with recommendations for HIV/AIDS prevention and, by implication, addressing other public health challenges, through the development of multifaceted intervention approaches.

New resources to address antibiotic resistance are just a click away

PubMed Central

Dowd-Schmidtke, C; Tremblay, G; Gale-Rowe, M; Dodds, J; Finley, R

2014-01-01

Antibiotic resistance is a complex issue with multiple causes, and there are many roles to play in addressing it. As part of its response, the Public Health Agency of Canada is launching a pilot antibiotic awareness campaign for Canadian families and health care professionals. Coinciding with Antibiotic Awareness Week, starting on November 17, 2014, the goal of this campaign is to improve knowledge and awareness of antibiotic resistance in Canada. To achieve this, the Agency has developed a suite of resources for both Canadian families and health care providers featuring a variety of key messages explaining antibiotic resistance, why it is important, and how to reduce the risks associated with it. Resources for Canadian families include an online informational video, an educational brochure, and infographics for both adults and children. Resources for health care professionals include two online Continuing Medical Education Modules, a letter that physicians can sign and provide to parents explaining why an antibiotic was not prescribed, and two webinars to present trends in antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and antimicrobial use. Health professionals will also receive an electronic postcard and a bilingual campaign poster. Promoting the campaign messages and using these campaign resources will support health professionals in discussions about antibiotic resistance with their patients or clients, and in their continuing efforts to be part of the solution in addressing this important global health challenge.

New resources to address antibiotic resistance are just a click away.

PubMed

Dowd-Schmidtke, C; Tremblay, G; Gale-Rowe, M; Dodds, J; Finley, R

2014-11-07

Antibiotic resistance is a complex issue with multiple causes, and there are many roles to play in addressing it. As part of its response, the Public Health Agency of Canada is launching a pilot antibiotic awareness campaign for Canadian families and health care professionals. Coinciding with Antibiotic Awareness Week, starting on November 17, 2014, the goal of this campaign is to improve knowledge and awareness of antibiotic resistance in Canada. To achieve this, the Agency has developed a suite of resources for both Canadian families and health care providers featuring a variety of key messages explaining antibiotic resistance, why it is important, and how to reduce the risks associated with it. Resources for Canadian families include an online informational video, an educational brochure, and infographics for both adults and children. Resources for health care professionals include two online Continuing Medical Education Modules, a letter that physicians can sign and provide to parents explaining why an antibiotic was not prescribed, and two webinars to present trends in antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and antimicrobial use. Health professionals will also receive an electronic postcard and a bilingual campaign poster. Promoting the campaign messages and using these campaign resources will support health professionals in discussions about antibiotic resistance with their patients or clients, and in their continuing efforts to be part of the solution in addressing this important global health challenge.

Clinically observed chickenpox and the risk of childhood-onset multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Mikaeloff, Yann; Caridade, Guillaume; Suissa, Samy; Tardieu, Marc

2009-05-15

The authors conducted a population-based case-control study to investigate whether clinically observed chickenpox, linked with a level of intensity for clinical expression, increases the risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) in childhood. The cases were MS patients whose disease onset occurred between 1994 and 2003, before age 16 years, in France. Each case was matched for age, sex, and geographic origin with as many as 12 controls randomly selected from the general population. Information about clinically observed chickenpox in cases and controls before the index date regarding onset of MS was collected with a standardized questionnaire and was checked against health certificates. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio for an association between MS and chickenpox. The 137 MS cases were matched with 1,061 controls. Clinically observed chickenpox had occurred in 76.6% of the cases and 84.9% of their matched controls. The adjusted odds ratio of MS onset associated with chickenpox occurrence was 0.58 (95% confidence interval: 0.36, 0.92). The authors concluded that clinically observed chickenpox was associated with a lower risk of childhood-onset MS in a French population.

Quantifying Multiple Work-Related Psychosocial Risk Factors: Proposal for a Composite Indicator Based on the COPSOQ II.

PubMed

Stauder, Adrienne; Nistor, Katalin; Zakor, Tünde; Szabó, Anita; Nistor, Anikó; Ádám, Szilvia; Konkolÿ Thege, Barna

2017-12-01

To determine national reference values for the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ II) across occupational sectors and develop a composite score to estimate the cumulative effect of multiple work-related stressors, in order to facilitate the implementation of occupational health directives on psychosocial risk assessment. Cross-sectional data was collected via an online questionnaire. The sample included 13,104 individuals and was representative of the general Hungarian adult working population in terms of gender, age, education, and occupation. Mean scores were calculated for 18 scales on work environment and for 5 outcome scales of the COPSOQ II across 18 occupational sectors. We analyzed the association between a composite psychosocial risk score (CPRS), reflecting severity of exposure to multiple risk factors, and high stress, burnout, sleep troubles, and poor self-rated health. We found occupation-related differences in the mean scores on all COPSOQ II scales. Scores on the "Stress" scale ranged from 47.9 to 56.2, with the highest mean score in accommodation and food services sector. Variability was greatest with respect to emotional demands (range 40.3-67.6) and smallest with respect to role clarity (range 70.3-75.7). The prevalence of negative health outcomes increased with the CPRS. Five risk categories were formed, for which the odds ratio of negative outcomes ranged from 1.6 to 56.5. The sector-specific psychosocial risk profiles covering 18 work environmental factors can be used as a reference in organizational surveys and international comparisons. The CPRS proved to be a powerful predictor of self-reported negative health outcomes.

Relationship Factors Associated with Sexual Risk Behavior and High-Risk Alcohol Consumption among Latino MSM: Challenges and Opportunities to Intervene on HIV Risk

PubMed Central

Martinez, Omar; Muñoz-Laboy, Miguel; Levine, Ethan; Starks, Tyrel; Dolezal, Curtis; Dodge, Brian; Icard, Larry; Moya, Eva; Chavez-Baray, Silvia; Rhodes, Scott D.; Fernandez, M. Isabel

2016-01-01

The HIV epidemic continues to be a major public health concern, affecting communities with varying prevention and treatment needs. In the United States, Latino men who have sex with men (MSM) bear a disproportionate burden of HIV incidence. While recent studies have highlighted the relevance of relationship factors for HIV transmission among MSM generally, the unique needs and experiences of Latino MSM have received relatively little attention. Consequently, associations among relationship factors and HIV risk among Latino MSM remain unknown. This mixed-methods study examined relationship status and dynamics and potential HIV-related risk behaviors among Latino MSM. Quantitative analyses with 240 Latino MSM investigated associations between relationship status and engagement in condomless anal intercourse (CAI). Focus groups with 20 Latino male couples and 10 health service providers explored the impact of relationship dynamics on sexual behaviors, as well as opportunities to intervene on HIV risk. The majority of participants were predominantly Spanish speaking, most screened positive for high-risk alcohol consumption in the past month, more than half engaged in CAI in the past three months, and a majority reported multiple sexual partners in this period. Among participants in same-sex relationships (n=175), approximately half reported multiple partners in the previous three months and more than two-thirds reported CAI in this time period. Being in a same-sex relationship was positively associated with high-risk alcohol consumption and being age 30 or older, and negatively associated with having multiple partners. Moreover, being in a same-sex relationship significantly increased the likelihood that participants would report engaging in CAI. Qualitative analyses identified themes related to relationship dynamics and sexual behavior, as well as opportunities to intervene on HIV risk. Despite the challenges encountered by Latino male couples, most participants

ADDRESSING ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING CHALLENGES WITH COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS

EPA Science Inventory

In the field of environmental engineering, modeling tools are playing an ever larger role in addressing air quality issues, including source pollutant emissions, atmospheric dispersion and human exposure risks. More detailed modeling of environmental flows requires tools for c...

Assessing interactions between HLA-DRB1*15 and infectious mononucleosis on the risk of multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Disanto, Giulio; Hall, Carolina; Lucas, Robyn; Ponsonby, Anne-Louise; Berlanga-Taylor, Antonio J; Giovannoni, Gavin; Ramagopalan, Sreeram V

2013-09-01

Gene-environment interactions may shed light on the mechanisms underlying multiple sclerosis (MS). We pooled data from two case-control studies on incident demyelination and used different methods to assess interaction between HLA-DRB1*15 (DRB1-15) and history of infectious mononucleosis (IM). Individuals exposed to both factors were at substantially increased risk of disease (OR=7.32, 95% CI=4.92-10.90). In logistic regression models, DRB1-15 and IM status were independent predictors of disease while their interaction term was not (DRB1-15*IM: OR=1.35, 95% CI=0.79-2.23). However, interaction on an additive scale was evident (Synergy index=2.09, 95% CI=1.59-2.59; excess risk due to interaction=3.30, 95%CI=0.47-6.12; attributable proportion due to interaction=45%, 95% CI=22-68%). This suggests, if the additive model is appropriate, the DRB1-15 and IM may be involved in the same causal process leading to MS and highlights the benefit of reporting gene-environment interactions on both a multiplicative and additive scale.

The need for a prescribing competency framework to address the burden of complex polypharmacy among multiple long-term conditions.

PubMed

Picton, Catherine; Loughrey, Claire; Webb, Andrew

2016-10-01

The original requirement for a competency framework for prescribers was to identify the essential skills for non-medical prescribers. However, core prescribing competencies are relevant to any prescriber. The new, revised version is especially relevant for doctors/physicians. Doctors are the most frequent prescribers - prescribing is the most common therapeutic intervention. The quantity and complexity of medicine use is increasing through multiple treatment strategies/pathways for multiple comorbidities, resulting in polypharmacy - especially with long-term conditions. This is against a background of the ongoing introduction of new drugs with novel mechanisms of action with increased risks of adverse effects, compounded by drug-drug and disease-drug interactions. This has increased the need for monitoring and follow-up, including identification and management of poor adherence. It is challenging for doctors to maintain safe and effective prescribing and train other doctors and non-medical prescribers within the multidisciplinary team. The prescribing competency framework provides a systematic approach to support doctors to prescribe safely and effectively. It can be used by medical schools to teach prescribing, including preparation for the prescribing safety assessment; by F1/F2 doctors to support prescribing in early years; as part of prescribing quality improvement initiatives and as a continuing professional development framework in general practice or acute care settings. © Royal College of Physicians 2016. All rights reserved.

Randomised Controlled Trial of Parent Groups for Child Antisocial Behaviour Targeting Multiple Risk Factors: The SPOKES Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scott, Stephen; Sylva, Kathy; Doolan, Moira; Price, Jenny; Jacobs, Brian; Crook, Carolyn; Landau, Sabine

2010-01-01

Background: There is a pressing need for cost-effective population-based interventions to tackle early-onset antisocial behaviour. As this is determined by many factors, it would seem logical to devise interventions that address several influences while using an efficient means of delivery. The aim of this trial was to change four risk factors…

Tehran Survey of Potential Risk Factors for Multiple Births.

PubMed

Omani Samani, Reza; Almasi-Hashiani, Amir; Vesali, Samira; Shokri, Fatemeh; Cheraghi, Rezvaneh; Torkestani, Farahnaz; Sepidarkish, Mahdi

2017-10-01

The multiple pregnancy incidence is increasing worldwide. This increased incidence is concerning to the health care system. This study aims to determine the frequency of multiple pregnancy and identify factors that affect this frequency in Tehran, Iran. This cross-sectional study included 5170 mothers in labor between July 6-21, 2015 from 103 hospitals with Obstetrics and Gynecology Wards. The questionnaire used in this study consisted of five parts: demographic characteristics; information related to pregnancy; information related to the infant; information regarding the multiple pregnancy; and information associated with infertility. We recruited 103 trained midwives to collect data related to the questionnaire from eligible participants through an interview and medical records review. Frequencies and odds ratios (OR) for the association between multiple pregnancy and the selected characteristics (maternal age, economic status, history of multiple pregnancy in first-degree relatives, and reproductive history) were computed by multiple logistic regression. Stata software, version 13 (Stata Corp, College Station, TX, USA) was used for all statistical analyses. Multiple pregnancy had a prevalence of 1.48% [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19-1.85]. After controlling for confounding variables, we observed a significant association between frequency of multiple pregnancy and mother's age (OR=1.04, 95% CI: 1.001-1.09, P=0.044), assisted reproductive technique (ART, OR=6.11, 95% CI: 1.7- 21.97, P=0.006), and history of multiple pregnancy in the mother's family (OR=5.49, 95% CI: 3.55-9.93, P=0.001). The frequency of multiple pregnancy approximated results reported in previous studies in Iran. Based on the results, we observed significantly greater frequency of multiple pregnancy in older women, those with a history of ART, and a history of multiple pregnancy in the mother's family compared to the other variables. Copyright© by Royan Institute. All rights reserved.

Efficient computation of the joint probability of multiple inherited risk alleles from pedigree data.

PubMed

Madsen, Thomas; Braun, Danielle; Peng, Gang; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Trippa, Lorenzo

2018-06-25

The Elston-Stewart peeling algorithm enables estimation of an individual's probability of harboring germline risk alleles based on pedigree data, and serves as the computational backbone of important genetic counseling tools. However, it remains limited to the analysis of risk alleles at a small number of genetic loci because its computing time grows exponentially with the number of loci considered. We propose a novel, approximate version of this algorithm, dubbed the peeling and paring algorithm, which scales polynomially in the number of loci. This allows extending peeling-based models to include many genetic loci. The algorithm creates a trade-off between accuracy and speed, and allows the user to control this trade-off. We provide exact bounds on the approximation error and evaluate it in realistic simulations. Results show that the loss of accuracy due to the approximation is negligible in important applications. This algorithm will improve genetic counseling tools by increasing the number of pathogenic risk alleles that can be addressed. To illustrate we create an extended five genes version of BRCAPRO, a widely used model for estimating the carrier probabilities of BRCA1 and BRCA2 risk alleles and assess its computational properties. © 2018 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

High EDSS can predict risk for upper urinary tract damage in patients with multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Ineichen, Benjamin V; Schneider, Marc P; Hlavica, Martin; Hagenbuch, Niels; Linnebank, Michael; Kessler, Thomas M

2018-04-01

Neurogenic lower urinary tract dysfunction (NLUTD) is very common in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), and it might jeopardize renal function and thereby increase mortality. Although there are well-known urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage, no clinical prediction parameters are available. We aimed to assess clinical parameters potentially predicting urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage. A consecutive series of 141 patients with MS referred from neurologists for primary neuro-urological work-up including urodynamics were prospectively evaluated. Clinical parameters taken into account were age, sex, duration, and clinical course of MS and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Multivariate modeling revealed EDSS as a clinical parameter significantly associated with urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage (odds ratio = 1.34, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.06-1.71, p = 0.02). Using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves, an EDSS of 5.0 as cutoff showed a sensitivity of 86%-87% and a specificity of 52% for at least one urodynamic risk factor for upper urinary tract damage. High EDSS is significantly associated with urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage and allows a risk-dependent stratification in daily neurological clinical practice to identify MS patients requiring further neuro-urological assessment and treatment.

Combined effects of multiple risk factors on asthma in school-aged children.

PubMed

Szentpetery, Sylvia S; Gruzieva, Olena; Forno, Erick; Han, Yueh-Ying; Bergström, Anna; Kull, Inger; Acosta-Pérez, Edna; Colón-Semidey, Angel; Alvarez, Maria; Canino, Glorisa J; Melén, Erik; Celedón, Juan C

2017-12-01

Little is known about synergistic effects of several risk factors on asthma. We developed a risk score in Puerto Rican children, and then used this score to estimate the combined effects of multiple risk factors on asthma at school age in Puerto Rican and Swedish children. Case-control study in 609 Puerto Rican children (aged 6-14 years) and longitudinal birth cohort study of 2290 Swedish children followed up to age 12 years (The Children, Allergy, Milieu, Stockholm, Epidemiological Survey [BAMSE] Study). In both cohorts, there was data on parental asthma, sex, obesity, allergic rhinitis, and early-life second-hand smoke (SHS); data on diet and (in children ≥9 years) lifetime exposure to gun violence were also available in the Puerto Rico study. Asthma was defined as physician-diagnosed asthma and ≥1 episode of wheeze in the previous year. In a multivariable analysis in Puerto Rican children, male sex, parental asthma, allergic rhinitis, early-life SHS, an unhealthy diet and (in children ≥9 years) gun violence were each significantly associated with asthma. We next created a risk score using these variables (range, 0 to 5-6 in Puerto Rico and 0 to 4 in BAMSE). Compared with Puerto Rican children without any risk factors (i.e. a score of 0), Puerto Rican children with 2, 3, and at least 4 risk factors had 3.6 times (95% CI = 1.4-9.2), 10.4 times (95% CI = 4.0-27.0), and 21.6 times (95% CI = 7.2-64.9) significantly higher odds of asthma, respectively. In BAMSE, the presence of 2, 3, and at least 4 risk factors was significantly associated with 4.1 times (95% CI = 2.3-7.4), 6.3 times (95% CI = 3.0-13.3), and 17.2 times (95% CI = 4.1-73.2) increased odds of asthma at age 12 years. Our findings emphasize the multifactorial etiology of asthma, and suggest that concurrent eradication or reduction of several modifiable risk factors may better prevent or reduce the burden of childhood asthma. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identifying the Multiple Intelligences of Your Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McClellan, Joyce A.; Conti, Gary J.

2008-01-01

One way of addressing individual differences among adult learners is to identify the Multiple Intelligences of the learner. Multiple Intelligences refers to the concept developed by Howard Gardner that challenges the traditional view of intelligence and explains the presence of nine different Multiple Intelligences. The purpose of this study was…

A meta-analysis of multiple myeloma risk regions in African and European ancestry populations identifies putatively functional loci

PubMed Central

Rand, Kristin A.; Song, Chi; Dean, Eric; Serie, Daniel J.; Curtin, Karen; Sheng, Xin; Hu, Donglei; Huff, Carol Ann; Bernal-Mizrachi, Leon; Tomasson, Michael H.; Ailawadhi, Sikander; Singhal, Seema; Pawlish, Karen; Peters, Edward S.; Bock, Cathryn H.; Stram, Alex; Van Den Berg, David J; Edlund, Christopher K.; V.Conti, David; Zimmerman, Todd; Hwang, Amie E.; Huntsman, Scott; Graff, John; Nooka, Ajay; Kong, Yinfei; Pregja, Silvana L.; Berndt, Sonja I.; Blot, William J.; Carpten, John; Casey, Graham; Chu, Lisa; Diver, W. Ryan; Stevens, Victoria L.; Lieber, Michael R.; Goodman, Phyllis J.; Hennis, Anselm J.M.; Hsing, Ann W.; Mehta, Jayesh; Kittles, Rick A.; Kolb, Suzanne; Klein, Eric A.; Leske, Cristina; Murphy, Adam B.; Nemesure, Barbara; Neslund-Dudas, Christine; Strom, Sara S.; Vij, Ravi; Rybicki, Benjamin A.; Stanford, Janet L.; Signorello, Lisa B.; Witte, John S.; Ambrosone, Christine B.; Bhatti, Parveen; John, Esther M.; Bernstein, Leslie; Zheng, Wei; Olshan, Andrew F.; Hu, Jennifer J.; Ziegler, Regina G.; Nyante, Sarah J.; Bandera, Elisa V.; Birmann, Brenda M.; Ingles, Sue A.; Press, Michael F.; Atanackovic, Djordje; Glenn, Martha J.; Cannon-Albright, Lisa A.; Jones, Brandt; Tricot, Guido; Martin, Thomas G.; Kumar, Shaji K.; Wolf, Jeffrey L.; Deming, Sandra L.; Rothman, Nathaniel; Brooks-Wilson, Angela R.; Rajkumar, S. Vincent; Kolonel, Laurence N.; Chanock, Stephen J.; Slager, Susan L.; Severson, Richard K.; Janakiraman, Nalini; Terebelo, Howard R.; Brown, Elizabeth E.; De Roos, Anneclaire J.; Mohrbacher, Ann F.; Colditz, Graham A.; Giles, Graham G.; Spinelli, John J.; Chiu, Brian C.; Munshi, Nikhil C.; Anderson, Kenneth C.; Levy, Joan; Zonder, Jeffrey A.; Orlowski, Robert Z.; Lonial, Sagar; Camp, Nicola J.; Vachon, Celine M.; Ziv, Elad; Stram, Daniel O.; Hazelett, Dennis J.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Cozen, Wendy

2017-01-01

Background Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in European populations have identified genetic risk variants associated with multiple myeloma (MM). Methods We performed association testing of common variation in eight regions in 1,264 MM patients and 1,479 controls of European ancestry (EA) and 1,305 MM patients and 7,078 controls of African ancestry (AA) and conducted a meta-analysis to localize the signals, with epigenetic annotation used to predict functionality. Results We found that variants in 7p15.3, 17p11.2, 22q13.1 were statistically significantly (p<0.05) associated with MM risk in AAs and EAs and the variant in 3p22.1 was associated in EAs only. In a combined AA-EA meta-analysis, variation in five regions (2p23.3, 3p22.1, 7p15.3, 17p11.2, 22q13.1) was statistically signficantly associated with MM risk. In 3p22.1, the correlated variants clustered within the gene body of ULK4. Correlated variants in 7p15.3 clustered around an enhancer at the 3′ end of the CDCA7L transcription termination site. A missense variant at 17p11.2 (rs34562254, Pro251Leu, OR=1.32, p=2.93×10−7) in TNFRSF13B, encodes a lymphocyte-specific protein in the tumor necrosis factor receptor family that interacts with the NF-κB pathway. SNPs correlated with the index signal in 22q13.1 cluster around the promoter and enhancer regions of CBX7. Conclusions We found that reported MM susceptibility regions contain risk variants important across populations supporting the use of multiple racial/ethnic groups with different underlying genetic architecture to enhance the localization and identification of putatively functional alleles. Impact A subset of reported risk loci for multiple myeloma have consistent affects across populations and are likely to be functional. PMID:27587788

The multiple stressor ecological risk assessment for the mercury-contaminated South River and upper Shenandoah River using the Bayesian network-relative risk model.

PubMed

Landis, Wayne G; Ayre, Kimberley K; Johns, Annie F; Summers, Heather M; Stinson, Jonah; Harris, Meagan J; Herring, Carlie E; Markiewicz, April J

2017-01-01

We have conducted a regional scale risk assessment using the Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model (BN-RRM) to calculate the ecological risks to the South River and upper Shenandoah River study area. Four biological endpoints (smallmouth bass, white sucker, Belted Kingfisher, and Carolina Wren) and 4 abiotic endpoints (Fishing River Use, Swimming River Use, Boating River Use, and Water Quality Standards) were included in this risk assessment, based on stakeholder input. Although mercury (Hg) contamination was the original impetus for the site being remediated, other chemical and physical stressors were evaluated. There were 3 primary conclusions from the BN-RRM results. First, risk varies according to location, type and quality of habitat, and exposure to stressors within the landscape. The patterns of risk can be evaluated with reasonable certitude. Second, overall risk to abiotic endpoints was greater than overall risk to biotic endpoints. By including both biotic and abiotic endpoints, we are able to compare risk to endpoints that represent a wide range of stakeholder values. Third, whereas Hg reduction is the regulatory priority for the South River, Hg is not the only stressor driving risk to the endpoints. Ecological and habitat stressors contribute risk to the endpoints and should be considered when managing this site. This research provides the foundation for evaluating the risks of multiple stressors of the South River to a variety of endpoints. From this foundation, tools for the evaluation of management options and an adaptive management tools have been forged. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:85-99. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Multiple health behavior change in adults with or at risk for cancer: a systematic review.

PubMed

Green, Amanda C; Hayman, Laura L; Cooley, Mary E

2015-05-01

To identify components of efficacious interventions for multiple health behavior change (MHBC) in adult cancer survivors or adults at high risk for cancer. A systematic review of MHBC interventions was conducted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses framework. Ten studies met inclusion criteria. Most studies changed at least 2 health behaviors. Diet, exercise, and smoking cessation were consistently changed with in-person interventions. Longer duration interventions using phone or mail contact had a positive association with changing diet and exercise. MHBC interventions positively influenced behavior change in adults with cancer and those at high risk for cancer. Future studies should focus on increasing dissemination and implementation of efficacious interventions.

Addressing poverty and HIV using microenterprise: findings from qualitative research to reduce risk among unemployed or underemployed African American women.

PubMed

Prather, Cynthia; Marshall, Khiya; Courtenay-Quirk, Cari; Williams, Kim; Eke, Agatha; O'Leary, Ann; Stratford, Dale

2012-08-01

Microenterprise programs are widely used to improve health outcomes among women internationally. However, there is little information on applicability to American women living in poverty. We conducted formative research to identify activities that are viable and attractive, that may produce income to address some proportion of economic need and could be incorporated in the development of a micro-enterprise HIV-prevention intervention to reduce HIV/STD transmission among unemployed or underemployed African American women at risk for HIV. Focus groups were convened with young African American women and community leaders in two southern states. Interviews with women participating in the focus groups were also convened. Findings suggest an intervention should incorporate activities to increase self-esteem, enhance employability and job sustainability to decrease financial dependence. This research serves as the foundation for developing a novel approach to HIV prevention in the U.S. that may directly address poverty as a social determinant of health.

Food-chain contamination evaluations in ecological risk assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Linder, G.

Food-chain models have become increasingly important within the ecological risk assessment process. This is the case particularly when acute effects are not readily apparent, or the contaminants of concern are not readily detoxified, have a high likelihood for partitioning into lipids, or have specific target organs or tissues that may increase their significance in evaluating their potential adverse effects. An overview of food-chain models -- conceptual, theoretical, and empirical -- will be considered through a series of papers that will focus on their application within the ecological risk assessment process. Whether a food-chain evaluation is being developed to address relativelymore » simple questions related to chronic effects of toxicants on target populations, or whether a more complex food-web model is being developed to address questions related to multiple-trophic level transfers of toxicants, the elements within the food chain contamination evaluation can be generalized to address the mechanisms of toxicant accumulation in individual organisms. This can then be incorporated into more elaborate models that consider these organismal-level processes within the context of a species life-history or community-level responses that may be associated with long-term exposures.« less

No association between dietary sodium intake and the risk of multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Cortese, Marianna; Yuan, Changzheng; Chitnis, Tanuja; Ascherio, Alberto; Munger, Kassandra L

2017-09-26

To prospectively investigate the association between dietary sodium intake and multiple sclerosis (MS) risk. In this cohort study, we assessed dietary sodium intake by a validated food frequency questionnaire administered every 4 years to 80,920 nurses in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) (1984-2002) and to 94,511 in the Nurses' Health Study II (NHSII) (1991-2007), and calibrated it using data from a validation study. There were 479 new MS cases during follow-up. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the effect of energy-adjusted dietary sodium on MS risk, adjusting also for age, latitude of residence at age 15, ancestry, body mass index at age 18, supplemental vitamin D intake, cigarette smoking, and total energy intake in each cohort. The results in both cohorts were pooled using fixed effects models. Total dietary intake of sodium at baseline was not associated with MS risk (highest [medians: 3.2 g/d NHS; 3.5 g/d NHSII] vs lowest [medians: 2.5 g/d NHS; 2.8 g/d NHSII] quintile: HR pooled 0.98, 95% CI 0.74-1.30, p for trend = 0.75). Cumulative average sodium intake during follow-up was also not associated with MS risk (highest [medians: 3.3 g/d NHS; 3.4 g/d NHSII] vs lowest [medians: 2.7 g/d NHS; 2.8 g/d NHSII] quintile: HR pooled 1.02, 95% CI 0.76-1.37, p for trend = 0.76). Comparing more extreme sodium intake in deciles yielded similar results ( p for trend = 0.95). Our findings suggest that higher dietary sodium intake does not increase the risk of developing MS. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

Addressing Environmental Health Inequalities.

PubMed

Gouveia, Nelson

2016-08-27

Environmental health inequalities refer to health hazards disproportionately or unfairly distributed among the most vulnerable social groups, which are generally the most discriminated, poor populations and minorities affected by environmental risks. Although it has been known for a long time that health and disease are socially determined, only recently has this idea been incorporated into the conceptual and practical framework for the formulation of policies and strategies regarding health. In this Special Issue of the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (IJERPH), "Addressing Environmental Health Inequalities-Proceedings from the ISEE Conference 2015", we incorporate nine papers that were presented at the 27th Conference of the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology (ISEE), held in Sao Paulo, Brazil, in 2015. This small collection of articles provides a brief overview of the different aspects of this topic. Addressing environmental health inequalities is important for the transformation of our reality and for changing the actual development model towards more just, democratic, and sustainable societies driven by another form of relationship between nature, economy, science, and politics.

Advanced multiple access concepts in mobile satellite systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ananasso, Fulvio

1990-01-01

Some multiple access strategies for Mobile Satellite Systems (MSS) are discussed. These strategies were investigated in the context of three separate studies conducted for the International Maritime Satellite Organization (INMARSAT) and the European Space Agency (ESA). Satellite-Switched Frequency Division Multiple Access (SS-FDMA), Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA), and Frequency-Addressable Beam architectures are addressed, discussing both system and technology aspects and outlining advantages and drawbacks of either solution with associated relevant hardware issues. An attempt is made to compare the considered option from the standpoint of user terminal/space segment complexity, synchronization requirements, spectral efficiency, and interference rejection.

Retrospective Evaluation of Safety, Efficacy and Risk Factors for Pneumothorax in Simultaneous Localizations of Multiple Pulmonary Nodules Using Hook Wire System.

PubMed

Zhong, Yan; Xu, Xiao-Quan; Pan, Xiang-Long; Zhang, Wei; Xu, Hai; Yuan, Mei; Kong, Ling-Yan; Pu, Xue-Hui; Chen, Liang; Yu, Tong-Fu

2017-09-01

To evaluate the safety and efficacy of the hook wire system in the simultaneous localizations for multiple pulmonary nodules (PNs) before video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS), and to clarify the risk factors for pneumothorax associated with the localization procedure. Between January 2010 and February 2016, 67 patients (147 nodules, Group A) underwent simultaneous localizations for multiple PNs using a hook wire system. The demographic, localization procedure-related information and the occurrence rate of pneumothorax were assessed and compared with a control group (349 patients, 349 nodules, Group B). Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors for pneumothorax during the localization procedure. All the 147 nodules were successfully localized. Four (2.7%) hook wires dislodged before VATS procedure, but all these four lesions were successfully resected according to the insertion route of hook wire. Pathological diagnoses were acquired for all 147 nodules. Compared with Group B, Group A demonstrated significantly longer procedure time (p < 0.001) and higher occurrence rate of pneumothorax (p = 0.019). Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that position change during localization procedure (OR 2.675, p = 0.021) and the nodules located in the ipsilateral lung (OR 9.404, p < 0.001) were independent risk factors for pneumothorax. Simultaneous localizations for multiple PNs using a hook wire system before VATS procedure were safe and effective. Compared with localization for single PN, simultaneous localizations for multiple PNs were prone to the occurrence of pneumothorax. Position change during localization procedure and the nodules located in the ipsilateral lung were independent risk factors for pneumothorax.

Marching to a Different Beat: A Bibliography of Materials about Children at Risk because of Disabilities and/or Abilities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buckingham, Betty Jo

This annotated bibliography covers materials about children at risk because of disabilities and/or abilities. The bibliography includes approximately 560 entries. The following categories are addressed: autism; gifted; handicapped--general and multiple; hearing impaired/deaf; learning disabilities; mental illness; mentally handicapped/brain…

Randomized study combining interferon and glatiramer acetate in multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Lublin, Fred D; Cofield, Stacey S; Cutter, Gary R; Conwit, Robin; Narayana, Ponnada A; Nelson, Flavia; Salter, Amber R; Gustafson, Tarah; Wolinsky, Jerry S

2013-03-01

A double-blind, randomized, controlled study was undertaken to determine whether combined use of interferon β-1a (IFN) 30 μg intramuscularly weekly and glatiramer acetate (GA) 20 mg daily is more efficacious than either agent alone in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. A total of 1,008 participants were randomized and followed until the last participant enrolled completed 3 years. The primary endpoint was reduction in annualized relapse rate utilizing a strict definition of relapse. Secondary outcomes included time to confirmed disability, Multiple Sclerosis Functional Composite (MSFC) score, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) metrics. Combination IFN+GA was not superior to the better of the single agents (GA) in risk of relapse. Both the combination therapy and GA were significantly better than IFN in reducing the risk of relapse. The combination was not better than either agent alone in lessening confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale progression or change in MSFC over 36 months. The combination was superior to either agent alone in reducing new lesion activity and accumulation of total lesion volumes. In a post hoc analysis, combination therapy resulted in a higher proportion of participants attaining disease activity-free status (DAFS) compared to either single arm, driven by the MRI results. Combining the 2 most commonly prescribed therapies for multiple sclerosis did not produce a significant clinical benefit over 3 years. An effect was seen on some MRI metrics. In a test of comparative efficacy, GA was superior to IFN in reducing the risk of exacerbation. The extension phase for CombiRx will address whether the observed differences in MRI and DAFS findings predict later clinical differences. Copyright © 2013 American Neurological Association.

NQO1 gene rs1800566 variant is not associated with risk for multiple sclerosis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background A possible role of oxidative stress in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis (MS) and in experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis has been suggested. The detoxification enzyme NAD(P)H dehydrogenase, quinone 1 (NQO1) has been found up-regulated in MS lesions. A previous report described an association between the SNP rs1800566 in the NQO1 gene and the risk for MS in the Greek population. The aim of this study was to replicate a possible influence of the. SNP rs1800566 in the NQO1 gene in the risk for MS in the Spanish Caucasian population. Methods We analyzed allelic and genotypic frequency of NQO1 rs1800566 in 290 patients with MS and 310 healthy controls, using TaqMan Assays. Results NQO1 rs1800566 allelic and genotypic frequencies did not differ significantly between MS patients and controls, and were unrelated with age of onset of MS, gender, and clinical type of MS. Conclusions Our results indicate that NQO1 rs1800566 does not have an effect on MS disease risk. PMID:24755231

Multiple infections and associated risk factors among non-injecting cocaine users in Argentina.

PubMed

Rossi, Diana; Radulich, Graciela; Muzzio, Estela; Naveira, Jorge; Sosa-Estani, Sergio; Rey, Jorge; Griemberg, Gloria; Friedman, Samuel R; Martínez-Peralta, Liliana; Weissenbacher, Mercedes

2008-05-01

The aim of this study was to estimate the seroprevalence rates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV, core antibody), hepatitis C virus (HCV), and syphilis infections and analyze associated risk factors among 504 non-injecting cocaine users (NICU) in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Participants were interviewed in face-to-face sessions through a short structured questionnaire. Using venipuncture, 10 mL of blood was collected. Seroprevalence rates were: HIV (6.3%), HBV (9%), HCV (7.5%), and VDRL (4.2%). The risk of being infected with HIV, HBV, and HCV was significantly associated with having had a sex partner who was either a drug injector or who was known to be HIV positive. HIV and HCV infections were associated with former imprisonment, and HCV was associated with having been tattooed. Because of the rising number of NICU and the multiple infections detected, it is essential to implement prevention strategies focused on this population.

Integrating genome-wide association studies and gene expression data highlights dysregulated multiple sclerosis risk pathways.

PubMed

Liu, Guiyou; Zhang, Fang; Jiang, Yongshuai; Hu, Yang; Gong, Zhongying; Liu, Shoufeng; Chen, Xiuju; Jiang, Qinghua; Hao, Junwei

2017-02-01

Much effort has been expended on identifying the genetic determinants of multiple sclerosis (MS). Existing large-scale genome-wide association study (GWAS) datasets provide strong support for using pathway and network-based analysis methods to investigate the mechanisms underlying MS. However, no shared genetic pathways have been identified to date. We hypothesize that shared genetic pathways may indeed exist in different MS-GWAS datasets. Here, we report results from a three-stage analysis of GWAS and expression datasets. In stage 1, we conducted multiple pathway analyses of two MS-GWAS datasets. In stage 2, we performed a candidate pathway analysis of the large-scale MS-GWAS dataset. In stage 3, we performed a pathway analysis using the dysregulated MS gene list from seven human MS case-control expression datasets. In stage 1, we identified 15 shared pathways. In stage 2, we successfully replicated 14 of these 15 significant pathways. In stage 3, we found that dysregulated MS genes were significantly enriched in 10 of 15 MS risk pathways identified in stages 1 and 2. We report shared genetic pathways in different MS-GWAS datasets and highlight some new MS risk pathways. Our findings provide new insights on the genetic determinants of MS.

Epidemiology and risk factors of multiple-organ failure after multiple trauma: an analysis of 31,154 patients from the TraumaRegister DGU.

PubMed

Fröhlich, Matthias; Lefering, Rolf; Probst, Christian; Paffrath, Thomas; Schneider, Marco M; Maegele, Marc; Sakka, Samir G; Bouillon, Bertil; Wafaisade, Arasch

2014-04-01

In the severely injured who survive the early posttraumatic phase, multiple-organ failure (MOF) is the main cause of morbidity and mortality. An enhanced prediction of MOF might influence individual monitoring and therapy of severely injured patients. We performed a retrospective analysis of a nationwide prospective database, the TraumaRegister DGU of the German Trauma Society. Patients with complete data sets (2002-2011) and a relevant trauma load (Injury Severity Score [ISS] ≥ 16), who were admitted to an intensive care unit, were included. Of a total of 31,154 patients enclosed in this study, 10,201 (32.7%) developed an MOF according to the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score. During the study period, mortality of all patients decreased from 18.1% in 2002 to 15.3% in 2011 (p < 0.001). Meanwhile, MOF occurred significantly more often (24.6% in 2002 vs. 31.5% in 2011, p < 0.001), but mortality of MOF patients decreased (42.6% vs. 33.3%, p < 0.001). MOF patients who died survived 2 days less (11 days in 2002 vs. 8.9 days in 2011, p < 0.001). Independent risk factors for the development of MOF following severe trauma were age, ISS, head Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score of 3 or higher, thoracic AIS score of 3 or higher, male sex, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score of 8 or less, mass transfusion, base excess of less than -3, systolic blood pressure less than 90 mm Hg at admission, and coagulopathy. Over one decade, we observed an ongoing decrease of mortality after multiple trauma, accompanied by decreasing mortality in the subgroup with MOF. However, incidence of MOF in the severely injured increased significantly. Thus, MOF after multiple trauma remains a challenge in intensive care. The risk factors from multivariate analysis could be instrumental in anticipating the early development of MOF. Furthermore, a reliable prediction model might be supportive for patient enrolment in trauma studies, in which MOF marks the primary end point. Epidemiologic study

Step On It! - Workplace cardiovascular risk assessment of New York City yellow taxi drivers

PubMed Central

Gany, Francesca; Bari, Sehrish; Gill, Pavan; Ramirez, Julia; Ayash, Claudia; Loeb, Rebecca; Aragones, Abraham; Leng, Jennifer

2015-01-01

Background Multiple factors associated with taxi driving can increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in taxi drivers. Methods This paper describes the results of Step On It!, which assessed CVD risk factors among New York City taxi drivers at John F. Kennedy International Airport. Drivers completed an intake questionnaire and free screenings for blood pressure, glucose and body mass index (BMI). Results 466 drivers participated. 9% had random plasma glucose values >200 mg/dl. 77% had elevated BMIs. Immigrants who lived in the U.S. for >10 years had 2.5 times the odds (CI: 1.1–5.9) of having high blood pressure compared to newer immigrants. Discussion Abnormalities documented in this study were significant, especially for immigrants with greater duration of residence in the U.S., and underscore the potential for elevated CVD risk in this vulnerable population, and the need to address this risk through frameworks that utilize multiple levels of intervention. PMID:25680879

Addressing Risk and Reluctance at the Nexus of HIV and Anal Cancer Screening

PubMed Central

Ka‘opua, Lana Sue I.; Cassel, Kevin; Shiramizu, Bruce; Stotzer, Rebecca L.; Robles, Andrew; Kapua, Cathy; Orton, Malulani; Milne, Cris; Sesepasara, Maddalynn

2015-01-01

Anal cancer disproportionately burdens persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) regardless of natal sex, sexual orientation, gender expression, and ethnic identity. Culturally competent communications are recommended to address health disparities, with sociocultural relevance ensured through constituent dialogic processes. Results are presented from six provider focus groups conducted to inform the promotion/education component of a Hawai‘i-based project on anal cancer screening tools. Krueger’s focus group methodology guided discussion queries. Verbatim transcripts of digitally recorded discussions were analyzed using grounded theory and PEN-3 procedures. Adherence to an audit trail ensured analytic rigor. Grounded theory analysis detected the overall theme of risk and reluctance to anal cancer screening, characterized by anal cancer not being “on the radar” of PLHIV, conflicting attributions of the anus and anal sex, fear of sex-shaming/-blaming, and other interrelated conceptual categories. PEN-3 analysis revealed strategies for destigmatizing anal cancer, through “real talk” (proactive, candid, nonjudgmental discussion) nested in a framework of sexual health and overall well-being, with additional tailoring for relevance to Native Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders, transgender persons, and other marginalized groups. Application of strategies for health practice are specific to the Hawai‘i context, yet may offer considerations for developing strengths-based, culturally relevant screening promotion/education with diverse PLHIV in other locales. PMID:26630979

Addressing Risk and Reluctance at the Nexus of HIV and Anal Cancer Screening.

PubMed

Ka'opua, Lana Sue I; Cassel, Kevin; Shiramizu, Bruce; Stotzer, Rebecca L; Robles, Andrew; Kapua, Cathy; Orton, Malulani; Milne, Cris; Sesepasara, Maddalynn

2016-01-01

Anal cancer disproportionately burdens persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) regardless of natal sex, sexual orientation, gender expression, and ethnic identity. Culturally competent communications are recommended to address health disparities, with sociocultural relevance ensured through constituent dialogic processes. Results are presented from six provider focus groups conducted to inform the promotion/education component of a Hawai'i-based project on anal cancer screening tools. Krueger's focus group methodology guided discussion queries. Verbatim transcripts of digitally recorded discussions were analyzed using grounded theory and PEN-3 procedures. Adherence to an audit trail ensured analytic rigor. Grounded theory analysis detected the overall theme of risk and reluctance to anal cancer screening, characterized by anal cancer not being "on the radar" of PLHIV, conflicting attributions of the anus and anal sex, fear of sex-shaming/-blaming, and other interrelated conceptual categories. PEN-3 analysis revealed strategies for destigmatizing anal cancer, through "real talk" (proactive, candid, nonjudgmental discussion) nested in a framework of sexual health and overall well-being, with additional tailoring for relevance to Native Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders, transgender persons, and other marginalized groups. Application of strategies for health practice are specific to the Hawai'i context, yet may offer considerations for developing strengths-based, culturally relevant screening promotion/education with diverse PLHIV in other locales. © 2015 Society for Public Health Education.

The incremental value of troponin biomarkers in risk stratification of acute coronary syndromes: is the relationship multiplicative?

PubMed

Amin, Amit P; Nathan, Sandeep; Vassallo, Patricia; Calvin, James E

2009-05-20

To emphasize the importance of troponin in the context of a new score for risk stratifying acute coronary syndromes (ACS) patients. Although troponins have powerful prognostic value, current ACS scores do not fully capitalize this prognostic ability. Here, we weigh troponin status in a multiplicative manner to develop the TRACS score from previously published Rush score risk factors (RRF). 2,866 ACS patients (46.7% troponin positive) from 9 centers comprising the TRACS registry, were randomly split into derivation (n=1,422) and validation (n=1,444) cohorts. In the derivation sample, RRF sum was multiplied by 3 if troponins were positive to yield the TRACS score, which was grouped into five categories of 0-2, 3-5, 6-8, 9-11, 12-15 (multiples of 3). Predictive performance of this score to predict hospital death was ascertained in the validation sample. The TRACS score had ROC AUC of 0.71 in the validation cohort. Logistic regression, Kaplan-Meier analysis, likelihood-ratio and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) test indicated that weighing troponin status with 3 in the TRACS score improved the prediction of mortality. Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated sound model fit. We demonstrate that weighing troponin as a multiple of 3 yields robust prognostication of hospital mortality in ACS patients, when used in the context of the TRACS score.

The Incremental Value of Troponin Biomarkers in Risk Stratification of Acute Coronary Syndromes: Is the Relationship Multiplicative?

PubMed Central

Amin, Amit P; Nathan, Sandeep; Vassallo, Patricia; Calvin, James E

2009-01-01

Structured Abstract Objective: To emphasize the importance of troponin in the context of a new score for risk stratifying acute coronary syndromes (ACS) patients. Although troponins have powerful prognostic value, current ACS scores do not fully capitalize this prognostic ability. Here, we weigh troponin status in a multiplicative manner to develop the TRACS score from previously published Rush score risk factors (RRF). Methods: 2,866 ACS patients (46.7% troponin positive) from 9 centers comprising the TRACS registry, were randomly split into derivation (n=1,422) and validation (n=1,444) cohorts. In the derivation sample, RRF sum was multiplied by 3 if troponins were positive to yield the TRACS score, which was grouped into five categories of 0-2, 3-5, 6-8, 9-11, 12-15 (multiples of 3). Predictive performance of this score to predict hospital death was ascertained in the validation sample. Results: The TRACS score had ROC AUC of 0.71 in the validation cohort. Logistic regression, Kaplan-Meier analysis, likelihood-ratio and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) test indicated that weighing troponin status with 3 in the TRACS score improved the prediction of mortality. Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated sound model fit. Conclusions: We demonstrate that weighing troponin as a multiple of 3 yields robust prognostication of hospital mortality in ACS patients, when used in the context of the TRACS score. PMID:19557150

[Multiple meningiomas].

PubMed

Terrier, L-M; François, P

2016-06-01

Multiple meningiomas (MMs) or meningiomatosis are defined by the presence of at least 2 lesions that appear simultaneously or not, at different intracranial locations, without the association of neurofibromatosis. They present 1-9 % of meningiomas with a female predominance. The occurrence of multiple meningiomas is not clear. There are 2 main hypotheses for their development, one that supports the independent evolution of these tumors and the other, completely opposite, that suggests the propagation of tumor cells of a unique clone transformation, through cerebrospinal fluid. NF2 gene mutation is an important intrinsic risk factor in the etiology of multiple meningiomas and some exogenous risk factors have been suspected but only ionizing radiation exposure has been proven. These tumors can grow anywhere in the skull but they are more frequently observed in supratentorial locations. Their histologic types are similar to unique meningiomas of psammomatous, fibroblastic, meningothelial or transitional type and in most cases are benign tumors. The prognosis of these tumors is eventually good and does not differ from the unique tumors except for the cases of radiation-induced multiple meningiomas, in the context of NF2 or when diagnosed in children where the outcome is less favorable. Each meningioma lesion should be dealt with individually and their multiple character should not justify their resection at all costs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Exposure to Different Types of Violence and Subsequent Sexual Risk Behavior among Female STD Clinic Patients: A Latent Class Analysis

PubMed Central

Walsh, Jennifer L.; Senn, Theresa E.; Carey, Michael P.

2013-01-01

Objective Diverse forms of violence, including childhood maltreatment (CM), intimate partner violence (IPV), and exposure to community violence (ECV), have been linked separately with sexual risk behaviors. However, few studies have explored multiple experiences of violence simultaneously in relation to sexual risk-taking, especially in women who are most vulnerable to violent experiences. Methods Participants were 481 women (66% African American, Mage = 27 years) attending a publicly-funded STD clinic who reported on their past and current experiences with violence and their current sexual risk behavior. We identified patterns of experience with violence using latent class analysis (LCA) and investigated which combinations of experiences were associated with the riskiest sexual outcomes. Results Four classes of women with different experiences of violence were identified: Low Violence (39%), Predominantly ECV (20%), Predominantly CM (23%), and Multiply Victimized (18%). Women in the Multiply Victimized and Predominantly ECV classes reported the highest levels of sexual risk behavior, including more lifetime sexual partners and a greater likelihood of receiving STD treatment and using substances before sex. Conclusions Women with different patterns of violent experiences differed in their sexual risk behavior. Interventions to reduce sexual risk should address violence against women, focusing on experiences with multiple types of violence and experiences specifically with ECV. Additional research is needed to determine the best ways to address violence in sexual risk reduction interventions. PMID:23626921

Exposure to Multiple Pesticides and Risk of Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma in Men from Six Canadian Provinces

PubMed Central

Hohenadel, Karin; Harris, Shelley A.; McLaughlin, John R.; Spinelli, John J.; Pahwa, Punam; Dosman, James A.; Demers, Paul A.; Blair, Aaron

2011-01-01

Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) has been linked to several agricultural exposures, including some commonly used pesticides. Although there is a significant body of literature examining the effects of exposure to individual pesticides on NHL, the impact of exposure to multiple pesticides or specific pesticide combinations has not been explored in depth. Data from a six-province Canadian case-control study conducted between 1991 and 1994 were analyzed to investigate the relationship between NHL, the total number of pesticides used and some common pesticide combinations. Cases (n = 513) were identified through hospital records and provincial cancer registries and controls (n = 1,506), frequency matched to cases by age and province of residence, were obtained through provincial health records, telephone listings, or voter lists. In multiple logistic regression analyses, risk of NHL increased with the number of pesticides used. Similar results were obtained in analyses restricted to herbicides, insecticides and several pesticide classes. Odds ratios increased further when only ‘potentially carcinogenic’ pesticides were considered (OR[one pesticide] = 1.30, 95% CI = 0.90–1.88; OR[two to four] = 1.54, CI = 1.11–2.12; OR[five or more] = 1.94, CI = 1.17–3.23). Elevated risks were also found among those reporting use of malathion in combination with several other pesticides. These analyses support and extend previous findings that the risk of NHL increases with the number of pesticides used and some pesticide combinations. PMID:21776232

Systematic review of randomised controlled trials of multiple risk factor interventions for preventing coronary heart disease.

PubMed Central

Ebrahim, S.; Smith, G. D.

1997-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effectiveness of multiple risk factor intervention in reducing cardiovascular risk factors, total mortality, and mortality from coronary heart disease among adults. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials in workforces and in primary care in which subjects were randomly allocated to more than one of six interventions (stopping smoking, exercise, dietary advice, weight control, antihypertensive drugs, and cholesterol lowering drugs) and followed up for at least six months. SUBJECTS: Adults aged 17-73 years, 903000 person years of observation were included in nine trials with clinical event outcomes and 303000 person years in five trials with risk factor outcomes alone. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Changes in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, smoking rates, blood cholesterol concentrations, total mortality, and mortality from coronary heart disease. RESULTS: Net decreases in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, smoking prevalence, and blood cholesterol were 4.2 mm Hg (SE 0.19 mm Hg), 2.7 mm Hg (0.09 mm Hg), 4.2% (0.3%), and 0.14 mmol/l (0.01 mmol/l) respectively. In the nine trials with clinical event end points the pooled odds ratios for total and coronary heart disease mortality were 0.97 (95% confidence interval 0.92 to 1.02) and 0.96 (0.88 to 1.04) respectively. Statistical heterogeneity between the studies with respect to changes in mortality and risk factors was due to trials focusing on hypertensive participants and those using considerable amounts of drug treatment, with only these trials showing significant reductions in mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The pooled effects of multiple risk factor intervention on mortality were insignificant and a small, but potentially important, benefit of treatment (about a 10% reduction in mortality) may have been missed. Changes in risk factors were modest, were related to the amount of pharmacological treatment used, and in some cases may have been overestimated

Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

PubMed

Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

2016-03-01

Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decisional role preferences, risk knowledge and information interests in patients with multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Heesen, Christoph; Kasper, Jürgen; Segal, Julia; Köpke, Sascha; Mühlhauser, Ingrid

2004-12-01

Shared decision making is increasingly recognized as the ideal model of patient-physician communication especially in chronic diseases with partially effective treatments as multiple sclerosis (MS). To evaluate prerequisite factors for this kind of decision making we studied patients' decisional role preferences in medical decision making, knowledge on risks, information interests and the relations between these factors in MS. After conducting focus groups to generate hypotheses, 219 randomly selected patients from the MS Outpatient Clinic register (n = 1374) of the University Hospital Hamburg received mailed questionnaires on their knowledge of risks in MS, their perception of their own level of knowledge, information interests and role preferences. Most patients (79%) indicated that they preferred an active role in treatment decisions giving the shared decision and the informed choice model the highest priority. MS risk knowledge was low but questionnaire results depended on disease course, disease duration and ongoing immune therapy. Measured knowledge as well as perceived knowledge was only weakly correlated with preferences of active roles. Major information interests were related to symptom alleviation, diagnostic procedures and prognosis. Patients with MS claimed autonomous roles in their health care decisions. The weak correlation between knowledge and preferences for active roles implicates that other factors largely influence role preferences.

Association between exposure to farm animals and pets and risk of Multiple Sclerosis.

PubMed

Siejka, Dylan; Taylor, Bruce; Ponsonby, Anne-Louise; Dwyer, Terence; van der Mei, Ingrid

2016-11-01

There exists inconsistent evidence regarding animals including pets as risk factors for the development of Multiple Sclerosis (MS). We investigated the association between farm animals and pets as possible environmental factors in MS development. Population based case-control study with 136 clinically definite MS cases and 272 controls randomly chosen from the community matched on sex and age. Data was collected from both questionnaire and a lifetime calendar detailing residence, occupation and pet/animal exposure over the course of participant's lives. Exposure to farming, livestock, specific farm animals and remoteness of residence showed no significant association with MS risk. Exposure to cats prior to disease onset was associated with a greater risk of MS (Adjusted Odds Ratio 2.46 (1.17-5.18)) but without a clear dose-response (test for trend, p=0.76). In contrast to other literature, farming and exposure to farm animals were not associated with MS. While we identified an association between cat exposure and MS, there was no dose-response relationship, and previous studies showed inconsistent results, leaving us to conclude that there is no strong evidence that exposure to cats is associated with MS. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Healthy me: A gender-specific program to address body image concerns and risk factors among preadolescents.

PubMed

McCabe, Marita P; Connaughton, Catherine; Tatangelo, Gemma; Mellor, David; Busija, Lucy

2017-03-01

This study evaluated a gender-specific, school-based program to promote positive body image and address risk factors for body dissatisfaction. In total, 652 children aged 8-10 years participated (335 intervention, 317 wait-list control). Children participated in four 60min sessions and a recap session at three months post-intervention. The broad content areas were body image, peer relationships, media awareness, healthy diet, and exercise. The activities and examples for each session were gender specific. The recap session was an overview of the four sessions. Assessment measures were completed at pre-intervention, post-intervention, and after the recap. Boys and girls in the intervention demonstrated higher muscle esteem and vegetable intake at post-intervention, compared to children in the control condition. Boys and girls demonstrated higher body esteem, muscle esteem and fruit and vegetable intake at the recap. Boys in the intervention demonstrated less investment in masculine gender norms at post-intervention and at recap. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk interrelationship among multiple primary tumors

PubMed Central

Safi, Mohammed; Sun, Xiuhua; Wang, Lifen; Zhang, Xinwei; Song, Jicheng; Ameen, Mohammed

2018-01-01

Abstract Rationale: Along with advanced management in oncology, great progress has been recently achieved in the studies of multiple primary tumors. Several reports have studied the coexistence between lymphoma and either renal cell carcinoma (RCC) or Warthin tumor. However, the level of coexistence between these cases remains unclear due to the absence of a distinct link between them. Patient concerns: We present a unique case of multiple primary tumors (lymphoma, RCC, and Warthin tumor) in an 80-year-old man and a review of the literature on the coexistence of RCC with lymphoma and lymphoma with Warthin tumor. Diagnosis: With a history of RCC, the patient had a freely movable lump under his left ear, and the pathological report indicated Hodgkin lymphoma and Warthin tumor. Intervention: RCC and Warthin tumor of the patient were surgically treated, followed by 2 cycles (14 days per cycle) of Epirubicin 40 mg day 1, Bleomycin 8 mg day 1, Vincristine 2 mg day 1, and Dacarbazine 500 mg day 1. The chemotherapy protocol was then changed to Epirubicin 40 mg day 1, Vincristine 2 mg day 1, and Dacarbazine 500 mg day 1 for 7 cycles. Outcomes: After the last day of chemotherapy, the patient showed a complete response. Lessons: To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to report a case of multiple primary tumors with a complete response. For their early detection, favorable prognosis, and correlation identification, we suggest a transitive relation between these coexisting tumors. Therefore, similar studies should be conducted. PMID:29642151

Addressing the Hard Factors for Command File Errors by Probabilistic Reasoning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meshkat, Leila; Bryant, Larry

2014-01-01

Command File Errors (CFE) are managed using standard risk management approaches at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Over the last few years, more emphasis has been made on the collection, organization, and analysis of these errors for the purpose of reducing the CFE rates. More recently, probabilistic modeling techniques have been used for more in depth analysis of the perceived error rates of the DAWN mission and for managing the soft factors in the upcoming phases of the mission. We broadly classify the factors that can lead to CFE's as soft factors, which relate to the cognition of the operators and hard factors which relate to the Mission System which is composed of the hardware, software and procedures used for the generation, verification & validation and execution of commands. The focus of this paper is to use probabilistic models that represent multiple missions at JPL to determine the root cause and sensitivities of the various components of the mission system and develop recommendations and techniques for addressing them. The customization of these multi-mission models to a sample interplanetary spacecraft is done for this purpose.

To risk or not to risk: Anxiety and the calibration between risk perception and danger mitigation.

PubMed

Notebaert, Lies; Masschelein, Stijn; Wright, Bridget; MacLeod, Colin

2016-06-01

Anxiety prepares an organism for dealing with threats by recruiting cognitive resources to process information about the threat, and by engaging physiological systems to prepare a response. Heightened trait anxiety is associated with biases in both these processes: high trait-anxious individuals tend to report heightened risk perceptions, and inappropriate engagement in danger mitigation behavior. However, no research has addressed whether the calibration between risk perception and danger mitigation behavior is affected by anxiety, though it is well recognized that this calibration is crucial for adaptive functioning. The current study aimed to examine whether anxiety is characterized by better or worse calibration of danger mitigation behavior to variations in risk magnitude. Low and high trait-anxious participants were presented with information about the likelihood and severity of a danger (loud noise burst) on each trial. Participants could decide to mitigate this danger by investing a virtual coin, at the cost of losing danger mitigation ability on subsequent trials. Importantly, level of risk likelihood and severity were varied independently, and the multiplicative relationship between the 2 defined total danger. Multilevel modeling showed that the magnitude of total danger predicted the probability of coin investments, over and above the effects of risk likelihood and severity, suggesting that participants calibrated their danger mitigation behavior to integrated risk information. Crucially, this calibration was affected by trait anxiety, indicating better calibration in high trait-anxious individuals. These results are discussed in light of existing knowledge and models of the effect of anxiety on risk perception and decision-making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

A post-colonial analysis of healthcare discourses addressing aboriginal women.

PubMed

Browne, Annette J; Smye, Vicki

2002-01-01

Annette Browne and Vicki Smye use post-colonial theoretical perspectives to inform a critical analysis of healthcare discourses related to cervical cancer among Canadian aboriginal women. They also examine how decontextualised discourses addressing aboriginal women's risks for cervical cancer can perpetuate negative stereotypical images of aboriginal women while downplaying or ignoring the historical, social and economic context of women's health risks.

Li-Fraumeni syndrome: cancer risk assessment and clinical management.

PubMed

McBride, Kate A; Ballinger, Mandy L; Killick, Emma; Kirk, Judy; Tattersall, Martin H N; Eeles, Rosalind A; Thomas, David M; Mitchell, Gillian

2014-05-01

Carriers of germline mutations in the TP53 gene, encoding the cell-cycle regulator and tumour suppressor p53, have a markedly increased risk of cancer-related morbidity and mortality during both childhood and adulthood, and thus require appropriate and effective cancer risk management. However, the predisposition of such patients to multiorgan tumorigenesis presents a specific challenge for cancer risk management programmes. Herein, we review the clinical implications of germline mutations in TP53 and the evidence for cancer screening and prevention strategies in individuals carrying such mutations, as well as examining the potential psychosocial implications of lifelong management for a ubiquitous cancer risk. In addition, we propose an evidence-based framework for the clinical management of TP53 mutation carriers and provide a platform for addressing the management of other cancer predisposition syndromes that can affect multiple organs.

Dose-dense and less dose-intense Total Therapy 5 for gene expression profiling-defined high-risk multiple myeloma.

PubMed

Jethava, Y; Mitchell, A; Zangari, M; Waheed, S; Schinke, C; Thanendrarajan, S; Sawyer, J; Alapat, D; Tian, E; Stein, C; Khan, R; Heuck, C J; Petty, N; Avery, D; Steward, D; Smith, R; Bailey, C; Epstein, J; Yaccoby, S; Hoering, A; Crowley, J; Morgan, G; Barlogie, B; van Rhee, F

2016-07-29

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a heterogeneous disease with high-risk patients progressing rapidly despite treatment. Various definitions of high-risk MM are used and we reported that gene expression profile (GEP)-defined high risk was a major predictor of relapse. In spite of our best efforts, the majority of GEP70 high-risk patients relapse and we have noted higher relapse rates during drug-free intervals. This prompted us to explore the concept of less intense drug dosing with shorter intervals between courses with the aim of preventing inter-course relapse. Here we report the outcome of the Total Therapy 5 trial, where this concept was tested. This regimen effectively reduced early mortality and relapse but failed to improve progression-free survival and overall survival due to relapse early during maintenance.

Addressing risk factors for child abuse among high risk pregnant women: design of a randomised controlled trial of the nurse family partnership in Dutch preventive health care.

PubMed

Mejdoubi, Jamila; van den Heijkant, Silvia; Struijf, Elle; van Leerdam, Frank; HiraSing, Remy; Crijnen, Alfons

2011-10-21

Low socio-economic status combined with other risk factors affects a person's physical and psychosocial health from childhood to adulthood. The societal impact of these problems is huge, and the consequences carry on into the next generation(s). Although several studies show these consequences, only a few actually intervene on these issues. In the United States, the Nurse Family Partnership focuses on high risk pregnant women and their children. The main goal of this program is primary prevention of child abuse. The Netherlands is the first country outside the United States allowed to translate and culturally adapt the Nurse Family Partnership into VoorZorg. The aim of the present study is to assess whether VoorZorg is as effective in the Netherland as in the United States. The study consists of three partly overlapping phases. Phase 1 was the translation and cultural adaptation of Nurse Family Partnership and the design of a two-stage selection procedure. Phase 2 was a pilot study to examine the conditions for implementation. Phase 3 is the randomized controlled trial of VoorZorg compared to the care as usual. Primary outcome measures were smoking cessation during pregnancy and after birth, birth outcomes, child development, child abuse and domestic violence. The secondary outcome measure was the number of risk factors present. This study shows that the Nurse Family Partnership was successfully translated and culturally adapted into the Dutch health care system and that this program fulfills the needs of high-risk pregnant women. We hypothesize that this program will be effective in addressing risk factors that operate during pregnancy and childhood and compromise fetal and child development. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16131117.

Female undergraduate fine arts students: a high-risk population for multiple sexual partners, unwanted pregnancy and sexually transmitted infections in China.

PubMed

Zou, Yuliang; Yan, Hong; Wu, Haocheng; Chen, Rucheng; Huang, Danqin; Li, Shiyue

2013-04-01

To compare risky sexual behaviour and risk factors associated with unwanted pregnancy and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among female fine arts undergraduates and students of other disciplines in China. Anonymously completed questionnaires were received from 4769 unmarried female undergraduates, recruited using randomised cluster sampling. Multiple regression analyses were used to examine factors associated with lifetime number of sex partners, self-reported pregnancy, and STIs. The proportion of students who had ever had sex was higher among female fine arts majors (35%) than among other females (15%). Not using a condom at first sex (87%), multiple lifetime partners (44%), and extramarital lover now or ever in lifetime (9%) were more common in sexually experienced fine arts students. Self-reported pregnancy (23%) and STIs (33%) were also more common in fine arts students. Years spent in school, understanding or approval of multiple sex partners, younger age at first sex and coercive first sex were associated with multiple lifetime partners, which was a risk factor for both unintended pregnancy and STIs. Female fine arts students hold more tolerant attitudes toward sex than other female students. They were more inclined to risky sexual behaviours, and thus more vulnerable to unwanted pregnancy and STIs.

National cohort study of absolute risk and age-specific incidence of multiple adverse outcomes between adolescence and early middle age.

PubMed

Mok, Pearl L H; Antonsen, Sussie; Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Appleby, Louis; Shaw, Jenny; Webb, Roger T

2015-09-19

Psychiatric illness, substance misuse, suicidality, criminality and premature death represent major public health challenges that afflict a sizeable proportion of young people. However, studies of multiple adverse outcomes in the same cohort at risk are rare. In a national Danish cohort we estimated sex- and age-specific incidence rates and absolute risks of these outcomes between adolescence and early middle age. Using interlinked registers, persons born in Denmark 1966-1996 were followed from their 15(th) until 40(th) birthday or December 2011 (N = 2,070,904). We estimated sex- and age-specific incidence rates of nine adverse outcomes, in three main categories: Premature mortality (all-causes, suicide, accident); Psychiatric morbidity (any mental illness diagnosis, suicide attempt, alcohol or drug misuse disorder); Criminality (violent offending, receiving custodial sentence, driving under influence of alcohol or drugs). Cumulative incidences were also calculated using competing risk survival analyses. For cohort members alive on their 15(th) birthday, the absolute risks of dying by age 40 were 1.99 % for males [95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.95-2.03 %] and 0.85 % for females (95 % CI 0.83-0.88 %). The risks of substance misuse and criminality were also much higher for males, especially younger males, than for females. Specifically, the risk of a first conviction for a violent offence was highest amongst males aged below 20. Females, however, were more likely than males to have a hospital-treated psychiatric disorder. By age 40, 13.25 % of females (95 % CI 13.16-13.33 %) and 9.98 % of males (95 % CI 9.91-10.06 %) had been treated. Women aged below 25 were also more likely than men to first attempt suicide, but this pattern was reversed beyond this age. The greatest gender differentials in incidence rates were in criminality outcomes. This is the first comprehensive assessment of the incidence rates and absolute risks of these multiple adverse outcomes

Simultaneous Multiple MS Binding Assays Addressing D1 and D2 Dopamine Receptors.

PubMed

Schuller, Marion; Höfner, Georg; Wanner, Klaus T

2017-10-09

MS Binding Assays are a label-free alternative to radioligand binding assays. They provide basically the same capabilities as the latter, but use a non-labeled reporter ligand instead of a radioligand. In contrast to radioligand binding assays, MS Binding Assays offer-owing to the selectivity of mass spectrometric detection-the opportunity to monitor the binding of different reporter ligands at different targets simultaneously. The present study shows a proof of concept for this strategy as exemplified for MS Binding Assays selectively addressing D 1 and D 2 dopamine receptors in a single binding experiment. A highly sensitive, rapid and robust LC-ESI-MS/MS quantification method capable of quantifying both SCH23390 and raclopride, selectively addressing D 1 and D 2 receptors, respectively, was established and validated for this purpose. Based thereon, simultaneous saturation and competition experiments with SCH23390 and raclopride in the presence of both D 1 and D 2 receptors were performed and analyzed by LC-MS/MS within a single chromatographic cycle. The present study thus demonstrates the feasibility of this strategy and the high versatility of MS Binding Assays that appears to surpass that common for conventional radioligand binding assays. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Cumulative Risk Assessment: An Overview of Methodological Approaches for Evaluating Combined Health Effects from Exposure to Multiple Environmental Stressors

PubMed Central

Sexton, Ken

2012-01-01

Systematic evaluation of cumulative health risks from the combined effects of multiple environmental stressors is becoming a vital component of risk-based decisions aimed at protecting human populations and communities. This article briefly examines the historical development of cumulative risk assessment as an analytical tool, and discusses current approaches for evaluating cumulative health effects from exposure to both chemical mixtures and combinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. A comparison of stressor-based and effects-based assessment methods is presented, and the potential value of focusing on viable risk management options to limit the scope of cumulative evaluations is discussed. The ultimate goal of cumulative risk assessment is to provide answers to decision-relevant questions based on organized scientific analysis; even if the answers, at least for the time being, are inexact and uncertain. PMID:22470298

USE OF TOXICOGENOMICS DATA IN RISK ASSESSMENT: CASE STUDY FOR A CHEMICAL IN THE ANDROGEN-MEDIATED MALE REPRODUCTIVE DEVELOPMENT TOXICITY PATHWAY

EPA Science Inventory

The goal of this project is to address the question, “Can existing toxicogenomics (TG) data improve Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) chemical health or risk assessments?” Although genomics data promises to impact multiple areas of science, medicine, law, and policy, there ar...

Integrative assessment of multiple pesticides as risk factors for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma among men

PubMed Central

De Roos, A J; Zahm, S; Cantor, K; Weisenburger, D; Holmes, F; Burmeister, L; Blair, A

2003-01-01

Methods: During the 1980s, the National Cancer Institute conducted three case-control studies of NHL in the midwestern United States. These pooled data were used to examine pesticide exposures in farming as risk factors for NHL in men. The large sample size (n = 3417) allowed analysis of 47 pesticides simultaneously, controlling for potential confounding by other pesticides in the model, and adjusting the estimates based on a prespecified variance to make them more stable. Results: Reported use of several individual pesticides was associated with increased NHL incidence, including organophosphate insecticides coumaphos, diazinon, and fonofos, insecticides chlordane, dieldrin, and copper acetoarsenite, and herbicides atrazine, glyphosate, and sodium chlorate. A subanalysis of these "potentially carcinogenic" pesticides suggested a positive trend of risk with exposure to increasing numbers. Conclusion: Consideration of multiple exposures is important in accurately estimating specific effects and in evaluating realistic exposure scenarios. PMID:12937207

Multilevel Analysis of Multiple-Baseline Data Evaluating Precision Teaching as an Intervention for Improving Fluency in Foundational Reading Skills for at Risk Readers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brosnan, Julie; Moeyaert, Mariola; Brooks Newsome, Kendra; Healy, Olive; Heyvaert, Mieke; Onghena, Patrick; Van den Noortgate, Wim

2018-01-01

In this article, multiple-baseline across participants designs were used to evaluate the impact of a precision teaching (PT) program, within a Tier 2 Response to Intervention framework, targeting fluency in foundational reading skills with at risk kindergarten readers. Thirteen multiple-baseline design experiments that included participation from…

Comic Relief: Graduate Students Address Multiple Meanings for Technology Integration with Digital Comic Creation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sockman, Beth Rajan; Sutton, Rhonda; Herrmann, Michele

2016-01-01

This study determined the usefulness of digital comic creation with 77 graduate students in a teacher technology course. Students completed an assigned reading and created digital comics that addressed technology integration concerns in the schools and society. Using practical action research, 77 student-created comics were analyzed. The findings…

Relationship Factors Associated with Sexual Risk Behavior and High-Risk Alcohol Consumption Among Latino Men Who Have Sex with Men: Challenges and Opportunities to Intervene on HIV Risk.

PubMed

Martinez, Omar; Muñoz-Laboy, Miguel; Levine, Ethan C; Starks, Tyrel; Dolezal, Curtis; Dodge, Brian; Icard, Larry; Moya, Eva; Chavez-Baray, Silvia; Rhodes, Scott D; Fernandez, M Isabel

2017-05-01

The HIV epidemic continues to be a major public health concern, affecting communities with varying prevention and treatment needs. In the U.S., Latino men who have sex with men (MSM) bear a disproportionate burden of HIV incidence. While recent studies have highlighted the relevance of relationship factors for HIV transmission among MSM generally, the unique needs and experiences of Latino MSM have received relatively little attention. Consequently, associations between relationship factors and HIV risk among Latino MSM remain unknown. This mixed-method study examined relationship status and dynamics and potential HIV-related risk behaviors among Latino MSM. Quantitative analyses with 240 Latino MSM investigated associations between relationship status and engagement in condomless anal intercourse (CAI). Focus groups with 20 Latino male couples and 10 health service providers explored the impact of relationship dynamics on sexual behaviors, as well as opportunities to intervene on HIV risk. The majority of participants were predominantly Spanish speaking, most screened positive for high-risk alcohol consumption in the past month, more than half engaged in CAI in the past 3 months, and a majority reported multiple sexual partners in this period. Among participants in same-sex relationships (n = 175), approximately half reported multiple partners in the previous 3 months and more than two-thirds reported CAI in this time period. Being in a same-sex relationship was positively associated with high-risk alcohol consumption and being age 30 or older and negatively associated with having multiple partners. Moreover, being in a same-sex relationship significantly increased the likelihood that participants would report engaging in CAI. Qualitative analyses identified themes related to relationship dynamics and sexual behavior, as well as opportunities to intervene on HIV risk. Despite the challenges encountered by Latino male couples, most participants expressed

Managing the side effects of multiple sclerosis therapy: pharmacotherapy options for patients.

PubMed

Rommer, Paulus S; Zettl, Uwe K

2018-04-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an immune-mediated and neurodegenerative disease with an unpredictable outcome. Immune-modulatory treatment aims at decreasing long-term disability. With the increasing number of treatment options, it is essential to fully digest the possible side effects of the available therapeutics and to monitor patients is essential. Areas covered: All approved disease-modifying drugs (DMD) for MS are discussed in this review. Mode of action, adverse effects, reported risks for infections and malignancies, and pregnancy related issues are discussed in the review. The authors also provide suggestions for monitoring therapy. For all approved DMDs the pivotal studies have been included for possible side effects, as well as reports by health authorities. For this manuscript, PubMed was checked for reports on side effects for various drugs. Expert opinion: Treatment options in MS are manifold, each carrying different risks. The safety-risk profile for approved agents is favorable. Knowing and monitoring these possible side effects is essential to minimize risks associated with treatment. Presently, the long-term experience for some of these therapies is missing and this must be addressed.

Risk factors for fecal colonization with multiple distinct strains of Escherichia coli among long-term care facility residents.

PubMed

Lautenbach, Ebbing; Tolomeo, Pam; Black, Nicole; Maslow, Joel N

2009-05-01

Of 49 long-term care facility residents, 21 (43%) were colonized with 2 or more distinct strains of Escherichia coli. There were no significant risk factors for colonization with multiple strains of E. coli. These results suggest that future efforts to efficiently identify the diversity of colonizing strains will be challenging.

Risk Factors for Fecal Colonization with Multiple Distinct Strains of Escherichia coli Among Long-Term Care Facility Residents

PubMed Central

Lautenbach, Ebbing; Tolomeo, Pam; Black, Nicole; Maslow, Joel N.

2009-01-01

Of 49 long-term care facility residents, 21 (43%) were colonized with two or more distinct strains of Escherichia coli. There were no significant risk factors for colonization with multiple strains of E. coli. These results suggest future efforts to efficiently identify diversity of colonizing strains will be challenging. PMID:19292660

Modeling month-season of birth as a risk factor in mouse models of chronic disease: from multiple sclerosis to autoimmune encephalomyelitis.

PubMed

Reynolds, Jacob D; Case, Laure K; Krementsov, Dimitry N; Raza, Abbas; Bartiss, Rose; Teuscher, Cory

2017-06-01

Month-season of birth (M-SOB) is a risk factor in multiple chronic diseases, including multiple sclerosis (MS), where the lowest and greatest risk of developing MS coincide with the lowest and highest birth rates, respectively. To determine whether M-SOB effects in such chronic diseases as MS can be experimentally modeled, we examined the effect of M-SOB on susceptibility of C57BL/6J mice to experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE). As in MS, mice that were born during the M-SOB with the lowest birth rate were less susceptible to EAE than mice born during the M-SOB with the highest birth rate. We also show that the M-SOB effect on EAE susceptibility is associated with differential production of multiple cytokines/chemokines by neuroantigen-specific T cells that are known to play a role in EAE pathogenesis. Taken together, these results support the existence of an M-SOB effect that may reflect seasonally dependent developmental differences in adaptive immune responses to self-antigens independent of external stimuli, including exposure to sunlight and vitamin D. Moreover, our documentation of an M-SOB effect on EAE susceptibility in mice allows for modeling and detailed analysis of mechanisms that underlie the M-SOB effect in not only MS but in numerous other diseases in which M-SOB impacts susceptibility.-Reynolds, J. D., Case, L. K., Krementsov, D. N., Raza, A., Bartiss, R., Teuscher, C. Modeling month-season of birth as a risk factor in mouse models of chronic disease: from multiple sclerosis to autoimmune encephalomyelitis. © FASEB.

Adolescent mental health as a risk factor for adolescent smoking onset

PubMed Central

Hockenberry, Jason M; Timmons, Edward J; Weg, Mark W Vander

2011-01-01

Smoking continues to be a leading cause of preventable deaths and rates of trying cigarettes and progression to daily smoking among adolescents continues to remain high. A plethora of risk factors for smoking among adolescents has been addressed in the research literature. One that is gaining particular interest is the relationship between adolescent mental health and smoking (both initiation and progression). This paper reviews the evidence for adolescent mental health as a risk factor for cigarette smoking. We focus on the specific mental health conditions that have been more thoroughly addressed as possible risk factors in community-dwelling adolescents. We discuss the multiple hypotheses that have been posited as to the nature of the relationship between adolescent mental health and smoking, as well as detailing so called third factors that may account for the observed relationship. We highlight the contribution of the existing studies to the body of knowledge on this topic, as well as the limitations and open questions that remain as a result. We conclude with discussion of a broad research agenda going forward. PMID:24600273

What is the lifetime risk of developing cancer?: the effect of adjusting for multiple primaries

PubMed Central

Sasieni, P D; Shelton, J; Ormiston-Smith, N; Thomson, C S; Silcocks, P B

2011-01-01

Background: The ‘lifetime risk' of cancer is generally estimated by combining current incidence rates with current all-cause mortality (‘current probability' method) rather than by describing the experience of a birth cohort. As individuals may get more than one type of cancer, what is generally estimated is the average (mean) number of cancers over a lifetime. This is not the same as the probability of getting cancer. Methods: We describe a method for estimating lifetime risk that corrects for the inclusion of multiple primary cancers in the incidence rates routinely published by cancer registries. The new method applies cancer incidence rates to the estimated probability of being alive without a previous cancer. The new method is illustrated using data from the Scottish Cancer Registry and is compared with ‘gold-standard' estimates that use (unpublished) data on first primaries. Results: The effect of this correction is to make the estimated ‘lifetime risk' smaller. The new estimates are extremely similar to those obtained using incidence based on first primaries. The usual ‘current probability' method considerably overestimates the lifetime risk of all cancers combined, although the correction for any single cancer site is minimal. Conclusion: Estimation of the lifetime risk of cancer should either be based on first primaries or should use the new method. PMID:21772332

Sequencing of disease-modifying therapies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: a theoretical approach to optimizing treatment.

PubMed

Grand'Maison, Francois; Yeung, Michael; Morrow, Sarah A; Lee, Liesly; Emond, Francois; Ward, Brian J; Laneuville, Pierre; Schecter, Robyn

2018-04-18

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic disease which usually begins in young adulthood and is a lifelong condition. Individuals with MS experience physical and cognitive disability resulting from inflammation and demyelination in the central nervous system. Over the past decade, several disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) have been approved for the management of relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS), which is the most prevalent phenotype. The chronic nature of the disease and the multiple treatment options make benefit-risk-based sequencing of therapy essential to ensure optimal care. The efficacy and short- and long-term risks of treatment differ for each DMT due to their different mechanism of action on the immune system. While transitioning between DMTs, in addition to immune system effects, factors such as age, disease duration and severity, disability status, monitoring requirements, preference for the route of administration, and family planning play an important role. Determining a treatment strategy is therefore challenging as it requires careful consideration of the differences in efficacy, safety and tolerability, while at the same time minimizing risks of immune modulation. In this review, we discuss a sequencing approach for treating RRMS, with importance given to the long-term risks and individual preference when devising a treatment plan. Evidence-based strategies to counter breakthrough disease are also addressed.

On Using Meta-Modeling and Multi-Modeling to Address Complex Problems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abu Jbara, Ahmed

2013-01-01

Models, created using different modeling techniques, usually serve different purposes and provide unique insights. While each modeling technique might be capable of answering specific questions, complex problems require multiple models interoperating to complement/supplement each other; we call this Multi-Modeling. To address the syntactic and…

A simple test of choice stepping reaction time for assessing fall risk in people with multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Tijsma, Mylou; Vister, Eva; Hoang, Phu; Lord, Stephen R

2017-03-01

Purpose To determine (a) the discriminant validity for established fall risk factors and (b) the predictive validity for falls of a simple test of choice stepping reaction time (CSRT) in people with multiple sclerosis (MS). Method People with MS (n = 210, 21-74y) performed the CSRT, sensorimotor, balance and neuropsychological tests in a single session. They were then followed up for falls using monthly fall diaries for 6 months. Results The CSRT test had excellent discriminant validity with respect to established fall risk factors. Frequent fallers (≥3 falls) performed significantly worse in the CSRT test than non-frequent fallers (0-2 falls). With the odds of suffering frequent falls increasing 69% with each SD increase in CSRT (OR = 1.69, 95% CI: 1.27-2.26, p = <0.001). In regression analysis, CSRT was best explained by sway, time to complete the 9-Hole Peg test, knee extension strength of the weaker leg, proprioception and the time to complete the Trails B test (multiple R 2   =   0.449, p < 0.001). Conclusions A simple low tech CSRT test has excellent discriminative and predictive validity in relation to falls in people with MS. This test may prove useful in documenting longitudinal changes in fall risk in relation to MS disease progression and effects of interventions. Implications for rehabilitation Good choice stepping reaction time (CSRT) is required for maintaining balance. A simple low-tech CSRT test has excellent discriminative and predictive validity in relation to falls in people with MS. This test may prove useful documenting longitudinal changes in fall risk in relation to MS disease progression and effects of interventions.

Involvement in Specific HIV Risk Practices among Men Who Use the Internet to Find Male Partners for Unprotected Sex

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Purpose. Men who have sex with other men (MSM) account for more than one-half of all new HIV infections in the USA. This study reports on the prevalence of a variety of HIV risk behaviors in one specific subpopulation of risk-seeking MSM. Methods. The study was based on a national sample of 332 MSM who use the Internet to find partners for unprotected sex. Data collection was conducted via telephone interviews between January 2008 and May 2009. Results. Unprotected oral and anal sex was commonplace among study participants. Men engaged in a large number of other risky behaviors as well, including having had multiple recent sex partners (mean number = 11), simultaneous double-penile penetration of the anus (16%), eating semen out of another man's anus (17%), engaging in multiple-partner sexual encounters (47%), engaging in anonymous sex (51%), and having sex while “under the influence” (52%). Conclusions. HIV intervention and prevention programs need to address numerous behaviors that place MSM at risk for contracting/transmitting HIV. Merely focusing on unprotected anal sex does a disservice to members of this community, who typically engage in many types of behavioral risks, each of which requires addressing if HIV transmission rates are to be reduced. PMID:24826369

Improving institutional fairness to live kidney donors: donor needs must be addressed by safeguarding donation risks and compensating donation costs.

PubMed

Schulz-Baldes, Annette; Delmonico, Francis L

2007-11-01

The number of kidney transplants from live donors is increasing worldwide, yet donor needs have not been satisfactorily addressed in either developed or developing countries. This paper argues that unmet donor needs are unfair to live kidney donors in two ways. First, when safeguards against the risks of donation are insufficient, live donation can impair the donor's health and thus his or her fair opportunities to access jobs and offices and to function as a free and equal citizen more generally. Secondly, when the financial costs of donation are not fully compensated, operational fairness (associated with the nephrectomy event) is compromised for the donor. The donor assumes the risks of a nontherapeutic intervention--for the good of the recipient and society--and should not have to incur costs for donating. Based on a systematic analysis of unmet donor needs in developed and developing countries, context-relative measures to improve institutional fairness to live kidney donors are delineated in this paper. The identified ways of safeguarding donation risks and compensating donation costs are not merely means to removing disincentives for donation and increasing donation rates. They are essential for preserving institutional fairness in the health care of the live kidney donor.

Multiple Primary Cancer Monograph

Cancer.gov

To identify groups of cancer survivors that are at increased risk for multiple primary cancers, investigators led an effort to provide the first comprehensive population-based analysis of the risk of subsequent cancer in the U.S., resulting in a monograph.

A 3/2-Approximation Algorithm for Multiple Depot Multiple Traveling Salesman Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhou; Rodrigues, Brian

As an important extension of the classical traveling salesman problem (TSP), the multiple depot multiple traveling salesman problem (MDMTSP) is to minimize the total length of a collection of tours for multiple vehicles to serve all the customers, where each vehicle must start or stay at its distinct depot. Due to the gap between the existing best approximation ratios for the TSP and for the MDMTSP in literature, which are 3/2 and 2, respectively, it is an open question whether or not a 3/2-approximation algorithm exists for the MDMTSP. We have partially addressed this question by developing a 3/2-approximation algorithm, which runs in polynomial time when the number of depots is a constant.

ESMD Risk Management Workshop: Systems Engineering and Integration Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, L. Dale

2005-01-01

This report has been developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Risk Management team in close coordination with the Systems Engineering Team. This document provides a point-in-time, cumulative, summary of key lessons learned derived from the SE RFP Development process. Lessons learned invariably address challenges and risks and the way in which these areas have been addressed. Accordingly the risk management thread is woven throughout the document.

[VDT worker's posture and workload in free-address office system].

PubMed

Iwakiri, Kazuyuki; Mori, Ippei; Sotoyama, Midori; Nose, Kaori; Ochiai, Takanori; Jonai, Hiroshi; Saito, Susumu

2006-01-01

A free-address system is a new office layout in which a worker can freely sit in their favorite place with a computer and materials. Since this layout has recently been introduced in offices, we conducted a questionnaire survey which aimed to clarify the effects of the free-address system on visual display terminals (VDT) workers' posture and workload. A total of 203 male VDT workers who were system engineers aged 20 to 59 using a notebook computer were evaluated, of whom 150 used the free-address layout, and 53 used the fixed-address layout. The free-address layout was effective in the improvement of individual work space compared with the fixed-address layout. Also, in this layout the worker did not feel dissatisfaction with communication or support between workers. However, workers using the free-address layout assumed an unsuitable work posture, without adjusting the height of their chairs. Furthermore, this layout might have risk factors which increase neck/shoulder and low back stiffness and/or pain. Therefore, the free-address layout may have incipient problems, and it will be necessary to examine further the effects of this layout on VDT worker's health.

Optimizing multiple reliable forward contracts for reservoir allocation using multitime scale streamflow forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Mengqian; Lall, Upmanu; Robertson, Andrew W.; Cook, Edward

2017-03-01

Streamflow forecasts at multiple time scales provide a new opportunity for reservoir management to address competing objectives. Market instruments such as forward contracts with specified reliability are considered as a tool that may help address the perceived risk associated with the use of such forecasts in lieu of traditional operation and allocation strategies. A water allocation process that enables multiple contracts for water supply and hydropower production with different durations, while maintaining a prescribed level of flood risk reduction, is presented. The allocation process is supported by an optimization model that considers multitime scale ensemble forecasts of monthly streamflow and flood volume over the upcoming season and year, the desired reliability and pricing of proposed contracts for hydropower and water supply. It solves for the size of contracts at each reliability level that can be allocated for each future period, while meeting target end of period reservoir storage with a prescribed reliability. The contracts may be insurable, given that their reliability is verified through retrospective modeling. The process can allow reservoir operators to overcome their concerns as to the appropriate skill of probabilistic forecasts, while providing water users with short-term and long-term guarantees as to how much water or energy they may be allocated. An application of the optimization model to the Bhakra Dam, India, provides an illustration of the process. The issues of forecast skill and contract performance are examined. A field engagement of the idea is useful to develop a real-world perspective and needs a suitable institutional environment.

A Topical Overview of Cumulative Risk Assessment Concepts ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) address combined risks from exposures to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors and may focus on vulnerable communities or populations. Significant contributions have been made to the development of concepts, methods, and applications for CRA over the past decade. Work in both human health and ecological cumulative risk has advanced in two different contexts. First, in assessing the effects of chemical mixtures that share common modes of action, or that cause common adverse outcomes. In this context two primary models are used for predicting mixture effects, dose addition or response addition. The second context is evaluating the combined effects of chemical and nonchemical (e.g., radiation, biological, nutritional, economic, psychological, habitat alteration, land-use change, global climate change, and natural disasters) stressors. CRA can be adapted to address risk in many contexts, and this adaptability is reflected in the range in disciplinary perspectives in the published literature. This article presents the results of a literature search by presenting a range of selected work with the intention to give a broad overview of relevant topics and provide a starting point for researchers interested in CRA applications. This is a select literature review of topics in CRA. As a published article it will allow the citation of an analysis conducted on a rich and diverse set of CRA publications relevant to assessment methods