Science.gov

Sample records for addressing multiple risk

  1. Adaptation of a Counseling Intervention to Address Multiple Cancer Risk Factors among Overweight/Obese Latino Smokers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Castro, Yessenia; Fernández, Maria E.; Strong, Larkin L.; Stewart, Diana W.; Krasny, Sarah; Hernandez Robles, Eden; Heredia, Natalia; Spears, Claire A.; Correa-Fernández, Virmarie; Eakin, Elizabeth; Resnicow, Ken; Basen-Engquist, Karen; Wetter, David W.

    2015-01-01

    More than 60% of cancer-related deaths in the United States are attributable to tobacco use, poor nutrition, and physical inactivity, and these risk factors tend to cluster together. Thus, strategies for cancer risk reduction would benefit from addressing multiple health risk behaviors. We adapted an evidence-based intervention grounded in social…

  2. Opportunity, risk, and success recognizing, addressing, and balancing multiple factors crucial to the success of a project management system deployed to support multi-lateral decommissioning programs

    SciTech Connect

    Funk, Greg; Longsworth, Paul

    2007-07-01

    This paper addresses the factors involved in effectively implementing a world-class program/project management information system funded by multiple nations. Along with many other benefits, investing in and utilizing such systems improves delivery and drive accountability for major expenditures. However, there are an equally large number of impediments to developing and using such systems. To be successful, the process requires a dynamic combining of elements and strategic sequencing of initiatives. While program/project-management systems involve information technologies, software and hardware, they represent only one element of the overall system.. Technology, process, people and knowledge must all be integrated and working in concert with one another to assure a fully capable system. Major system implementations occur infrequently, and frequently miss established targets in relatively small organizations (with the risk increasing with greater complexity). The European Bank of Reconstruction (EBRD) is midway through just such an implementation. The EBRD is using funds from numerous donor countries to sponsor development of an overarching program management system. The system will provide the Russian Federation with the tools to effectively manage prioritizing, planning, and physically decommissioning assets{sub i}n northwest Russia to mitigate risks associated the Soviet era nuclear submarine program. Project-management delivery using world-class techniques supported by aligned systems has been proven to increase the probability of delivering on-time and on-budget, assuring those funding such programs optimum value for money. However, systems deployed to manage multi-laterally funded projects must be developed with appropriate levels of consideration given to unique aspects such as: accommodation of existing project management methods, consideration for differences is management structures and organizational behaviors, incorporation of unique strengths, and

  3. Addressing Risks to Advance Mental Health Research

    PubMed Central

    Iltis, Ana S.; Misra, Sahana; Dunn, Laura B.; Brown, Gregory K.; Campbell, Amy; Earll, Sarah A.; Glowinski, Anne; Hadley, Whitney B.; Pies, Ronald; DuBois, James M.

    2015-01-01

    Objective Risk communication and management are essential to the ethical conduct of research, yet addressing risks may be time consuming for investigators and institutional review boards (IRBs) may reject study designs that appear too risky. This can discourage needed research, particularly in higher risk protocols or those enrolling potentially vulnerable individuals, such as those with some level of suicidality. Improved mechanisms for addressing research risks may facilitate much needed psychiatric research. This article provides mental health researchers with practical approaches to: 1) identify and define various intrinsic research risks; 2) communicate these risks to others (e.g., potential participants, regulatory bodies, society); 3) manage these risks during the course of a study; and 4) justify the risks. Methods As part of a National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH)-funded scientific meeting series, a public conference and a closed-session expert panel meeting were held on managing and disclosing risks in mental health clinical trials. The expert panel reviewed the literature with a focus on empirical studies and developed recommendations for best practices and further research on managing and disclosing risks in mental health clinical trials. IRB review was not required because there were no human subjects. The NIMH played no role in developing or reviewing the manuscript. Results Challenges, current data, practical strategies, and topics for future research are addressed for each of four key areas pertaining to management and disclosure of risks in clinical trials: identifying and defining risks, communicating risks, managing risks during studies, and justifying research risks. Conclusions Empirical data on risk communication, managing risks, and the benefits of research can support the ethical conduct of mental health research and may help investigators better conceptualize and confront risks and to gain IRB approval. PMID:24173618

  4. Marine and Human Systems: Addressing Multiple Scales and Multiple Stressors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hofmann, E. E.; Bundy, A.; Chuenpagdee, R.; Maddison, L.; Svendsen, E.

    2015-12-01

    The Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research (IMBER) project aims to develop a comprehensive understanding of, and predictive capacity of ocean responses to accelerating global change and the consequent effects on the Earth System and human society. Understanding the changing ecology and biogeochemistry of marine ecosystems and their sensitivity and resilience to multiple drivers, pressures and stressors is critical to developing responses that will help reduce the vulnerability of marine-dependent human communities. The cumulative pressure of anthropogenic activities on marine systems is already apparent and is projected to increase in the next decades. Policy- and decision-makers need assessments of the status and trends of marine habitats, species, and ecosystems to promote sustainable human activities in the marine environment, particularly in light of global environmental change and changing social systems and human pressures. The IMBER community recently undertook a synthesis and evaluation of approaches for ecosystem-based marine governance, integrated modeling of marine social-ecological systems, and the social and ecological consequences of changing marine ecosystems. The outcomes of this activity provide assessments of current understanding, indicate approaches needed to predict the effects of multiple stressors, at multiple scales, on marine ecosystems and dependent human populations, and highlight approaches for developing innovative societal responses to changing marine ecosystems.

  5. Microplastics: addressing ecological risk through lessons learned.

    PubMed

    Syberg, Kristian; Khan, Farhan R; Selck, Henriette; Palmqvist, Annemette; Banta, Gary T; Daley, Jennifer; Sano, Larissa; Duhaime, Melissa B

    2015-05-01

    Plastic litter is an environmental problem of great concern. Despite the magnitude of the plastic pollution in our water bodies, only limited scientific understanding is available about the risk to the environment, particularly for microplastics. The apparent magnitude of the problem calls for quickly developing sound scientific guidance on the ecological risks of microplastics. The authors suggest that future research into microplastics risks should be guided by lessons learned from the more advanced and better understood areas of (eco) toxicology of engineered nanoparticles and mixture toxicity. Relevant examples of advances in these two fields are provided to help accelerate the scientific learning curve within the relatively unexplored area of microplastics risk assessment. Finally, the authors advocate an expansion of the "vector effect" hypothesis with regard to microplastics risk to help focus research of microplastics environmental risk at different levels of biological and environmental organization.

  6. Native Women at Risk: Addressing Cancer Prevention.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thiemann, Kay M. B.

    1994-01-01

    Discusses outcomes of a conference that brought together representatives from Indian tribes, state health departments, the Indian Health Service, the Mayo Clinic, and the American Cancer Society, to address the high rate of cervical cancer among American Indian women. Describes barriers to health care and plans to promote cancer screening among…

  7. Managing Multiple Risk Factors.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1998-09-01

    cardiovascular disease among black women can be better controlled through the use of a stress reduction intervention that reduces the sympathetic nervous...All participants will have high normal (130/80) or mild hypertension and at least two additional risk factors for cardiovascular disease (e.g

  8. Addressing software security risk mitigations in the life cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gilliam, David; Powell, John; Haugh, Eric; Bishop, Matt

    2003-01-01

    The NASA Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) has funded the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) with a Center Initiative, 'Reducing Software Security Risk through an Integrated Approach' (RSSR), to address this need. The Initiative is a formal approach to addressing software security in the life cycle through the instantiation of a Software Security Assessment Instrument (SSAI) for the development and maintenance life cycles.

  9. Air toxics risk standards: are we addressing the real problems?

    SciTech Connect

    Laurie Miller; Richard Becker; Ted Cromwell

    2005-06-01

    Cost-effective risk reductions from major stationary emission sources have seen significant progress. EPA and state data demonstrate that their programs have dramatically reduced emissions and risk from these sources. Analyses indicate that the next generation of risk reductions for stationary sources will be provide little risk reduction, but will be much more costly and more challenging from a policy perspective. Facing these tough choices, EPA and state regulators should, with stakeholder input, be developing scientifically driven and cost-effective approaches to provide the public with honest answers and results. Air toxics risk policies and programs must prioritize and address significant remaining air toxics risks, educate and communicate to the public about the decision alternatives, build support for a holistic approach and openly communicate results. 6 refs.

  10. Climate change risk perception and communication: addressing a critical moment?

    PubMed

    Pidgeon, Nick

    2012-06-01

    Climate change is an increasingly salient issue for societies and policy-makers worldwide. It now raises fundamental interdisciplinary issues of risk and uncertainty analysis and communication. The growing scientific consensus over the anthropogenic causes of climate change appears to sit at odds with the increasing use of risk discourses in policy: for example, to aid in climate adaptation decision making. All of this points to a need for a fundamental revision of our conceptualization of what it is to do climate risk communication. This Special Collection comprises seven papers stimulated by a workshop on "Climate Risk Perceptions and Communication" held at Cumberland Lodge Windsor in 2010. Topics addressed include climate uncertainties, images and the media, communication and public engagement, uncertainty transfer in climate communication, the role of emotions, localization of hazard impacts, and longitudinal analyses of climate perceptions. Climate change risk perceptions and communication work is critical for future climate policy and decisions.

  11. Which issues concerning multiple pregnancies should be addressed during psychosocial counselling?

    PubMed

    Emery, Marysa

    2007-01-01

    The global rise in multiple pregnancy rates due to assisted reproductive technology has led to the development of various strategies to diminish these rates without jeopardising pregnancy. Policies at treatment centres may include the option of fetal reduction, although each centre is subject to national laws and its own guidelines. However, personal opinions and goals may also influence practice. The development of clinical decisions, therefore, is complex and subject to change. Primary prevention is the best way to reduce multiple births. For preventative psychosocial counselling, some centres employ counsellors, but if not, this becomes the physician's task. An in-depth assessment is required to define how many embryos to transfer and what risk of multiple birth is acceptable to patients. Counselling should address the following: the relationship between pregnancy rate, multiple pregnancy rate and the number of embryos transferred; benefits and risks of multiple pregnancy; and possibilities for primary and secondary prevention. Patients should voice how they feel facing these issues; which issues are worrisome; how they anticipate these possibilities; and what psychosocial support exists that could be mobilized. In summary, psychosocial counselling reinforces the partnership between couples and the assisted reproductive technology team, allowing for primary prevention and informed consent on multiple pregnancy issues.

  12. Hydrocomplexity: Addressing water security and emergent environmental risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Praveen

    2015-07-01

    Water security and emergent environmental risks are among the most significant societal concerns. They are highly interlinked to other global risks such as those related to climate, human health, food, human migration, biodiversity loss, urban sustainability, etc. Emergent risks result from the confluence of unanticipated interactions from evolving interdependencies between complex systems, such as those embedded in the water cycle. They are associated with the novelty of dynamical possibilities that have significant potential consequences to human and ecological systems, and not with probabilities based on historical precedence. To ensure water security we need to be able to anticipate the likelihood of risk possibilities as they present the prospect of the most impact through cascade of vulnerabilities. They arise due to a confluence of nonstationary drivers that include growing population, climate change, demographic shifts, urban growth, and economic expansion, among others, which create novel interdependencies leading to a potential of cascading network effects. Hydrocomplexity aims to address water security and emergent risks through the development of science, methods, and practices with the potential to foster a "Blue Revolution" akin to the Green revolution for food security. It blends both hard infrastructure based solution with soft knowledge driven solutions to increase the range of planning and design, management, mitigation and adaptation strategies. It provides a conceptual and synthetic framework to enable us to integrate discovery science and engineering, observational and information science, computational and communication systems, and social and institutional approaches to address consequential water and environmental challenges.

  13. Traffic, air pollution, minority and socio-economic status: addressing inequities in exposure and risk.

    PubMed

    Pratt, Gregory C; Vadali, Monika L; Kvale, Dorian L; Ellickson, Kristie M

    2015-05-19

    Higher levels of nearby traffic increase exposure to air pollution and adversely affect health outcomes. Populations with lower socio-economic status (SES) are particularly vulnerable to stressors like air pollution. We investigated cumulative exposures and risks from traffic and from MNRiskS-modeled air pollution in multiple source categories across demographic groups. Exposures and risks, especially from on-road sources, were higher than the mean for minorities and low SES populations and lower than the mean for white and high SES populations. Owning multiple vehicles and driving alone were linked to lower household exposures and risks. Those not owning a vehicle and walking or using transit had higher household exposures and risks. These results confirm for our study location that populations on the lower end of the socio-economic spectrum and minorities are disproportionately exposed to traffic and air pollution and at higher risk for adverse health outcomes. A major source of disparities appears to be the transportation infrastructure. Those outside the urban core had lower risks but drove more, while those living nearer the urban core tended to drive less but had higher exposures and risks from on-road sources. We suggest policy considerations for addressing these inequities.

  14. Addressing Benefits, Risks and Consent in Next Generation Sequencing Studies

    PubMed Central

    Meller, R

    2016-01-01

    The sequencing of the human genome and technological advances in DNA sequencing have led to a revolution with respect to DNA sequencing and its potential to diagnose genetic disorders. However, requests for open access to genomic data must be balanced against the guiding principles of the Common Rule for human subject research. Unfortunately, the risks to patients involved in genomic studies are still evolving and as such may not be clear to learned and well-intentioned scientists. Central to this issue are the strategies that enable human participants in such studies to remain anonymous, or de-identified. The wealth of genomic data on the Internet in genomic data repositories and other databases has enabled de-identified data to be broken and research subjects to be identified. The security of de-identification neglects the fact that DNA itself is an identifying element. Therefore, it is questionable whether data security standards can ever truly protect the identity of a patient, under the current conditions or in the future. As Big Data methodologies advance, additional sources of data may enable the re-identification of patients enrolled in next-generation sequencing (NGS) studies. As such, it is time to re-evaluate the risks of sharing genomic data and establish new guidelines for good practices. In this commentary, I address the challenges facing federally funded investigators who need to strike a balance between compliance with federal (US) rules for human subjects and the recent requirement for open access/sharing of data from National Institute for Health (NIH)-funded studies involving human subjects. PMID:27375922

  15. Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Roskilde University hosted a November 2015 workshop on “Environmental Risk – Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World”. Thirty attendees from 9 countries developed consensus recommendations regarding: implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process involving both universal and site-, region-, or problem-specific protection goals; addressing societal issues; risk management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. We encourage both cross- and inter-disciplinary approaches to address 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and non-chemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk management process; 5) consider socio-economics and increase transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference con

  16. Addressing the Multiple Drivers of Wetland Ecosystems Degradation in Lagos, Nigeria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agboola, J.; Ndimele, P. E.; Odunuga, S.; Akanni, A.; Kosemani, B.; Ahove, M.

    2015-12-01

    Several body of knowledge have noted the importance of wetland ecosystems in climate moderation, resource supply and flood risk reduction amongst others. Relevant as it may, rapidly increasing population and uncontrolled urban development poses a challenge in some regions and require understanding of the ecosystem components and drivers of change over a long period of time. Thus, the main thrust of this paper is to analyse multiple drivers of wetland ecosystems degradation in the last 30 years in the Lagos megacity using field study, desktop review, satellite data and laboratory analysis. Key drivers identified includes: conversion of wetlands to settlements and waste sink, land use planning that neglects wetland conservation and restoration, ineffective legal status for wetlands, over exploitation leading to degradation and fragmentation of wetland ecosystems governance. In stemming further loss of this vital ecosystem, this study adopted and proposed respectively, the Drivers, Pressure, State, Impact and Response (DPSIR) and Integrated Planning Approach (IPA) frameworks in analysing policy and governance issues in wetland development. These analyses figured out amongst others, strict conservation and sustainable use of wetland resources, habitat restoration, climate adaptation measures, legal protection and wetland management institution as major responses to current multiple pressures facing wetland ecosystems in Lagos. For these frameworks to be made meaningful, weak coordination among government agencies and institutional capacity in implementation and law enforcement, unsustainable resource extraction by private/business organization and issues on alternative sources of income on the part of the local communities amongst others needs to be addressed.

  17. Patellofemoral Pain Syndrome and Modifiable Intrinsic Risk Factors; How to Assess and Address?

    PubMed Central

    Halabchi, Farzin; Mazaheri, Reza; Seif-Barghi, Tohid

    2013-01-01

    Patellofemoral pain syndrome (PFPS) is a very common disorder of the knee. Due to multiple forces influencing the patellofemoral joint, clinical management of this ailment is particularly intricate. Patellofemoral pain syndrome has a multifactorial nature and multiple parameters have been proposed as potential risk factors, classified as intrinsic or extrinsic. Some of the intrinsic risk factors are modifiable and may be approached in treatment. A number of modifiable risk factors have been suggested, including quadriceps weakness, tightness of hamstring, iliopsoas and gastrosoleus muscles, hip muscles dysfunction, foot overpronation, tightness of iliotibial band, generalised joint laxity, limb length discrepancy, patellar malalignment and hypermobility. In general, the routine approach of physicians to this problem does not include assessment and modification of these risk factors and therefore, it may negatively affect the management outcomes. Changing this approach necessitates an easy and practical protocol for assessment of modifiable risk factors and effective and feasible measures to address them. In this review, we aimed to introduce assessment and intervention packages appropriate for this purpose. PMID:23802050

  18. An Approach for Addressing the Multiple Testing Problem in Social Policy Impact Evaluations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schochet, Peter Z.

    2009-01-01

    In social policy evaluations, the multiple testing problem occurs due to the many hypothesis tests that are typically conducted across multiple outcomes and subgroups, which can lead to spurious impact findings. This article discusses a framework for addressing this problem that balances Types I and II errors. The framework involves specifying…

  19. Addressing the Challenges of Families with Multiple Risks.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanson, Marci J.; Carta, Judith J.

    1996-01-01

    This article reviews the changing structures and characteristics of the American family and discusses the increased influence of several societal concerns, including poverty, substance abuse, and exposure to violence. These issues are considered in light of their potentially deleterious effects on child and family development and functioning,…

  20. How can ab initio simulations address risks in nanotech?

    PubMed

    Barnard, Amanda S

    2009-06-01

    Discussions of the potential risks and hazards associated with nanomaterials and nanoparticles tend to focus on the need for further experiments. However, theoretical and computational nanoscientists could also contribute by making their calculations more relevant to research into this area.

  1. Addressing Human System Risks to Future Space Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Paloski, W. H.; Francisco, D. R.; Davis, J. R.

    2015-01-01

    NASA is contemplating future human exploration missions to destinations beyond low Earth orbit, including the Moon, deep-space asteroids, and Mars. While we have learned much about protecting crew health and performance during orbital space flight over the past half-century, the challenges of these future missions far exceed those within our current experience base. To ensure success in these missions, we have developed a Human System Risk Board (HSRB) to identify, quantify, and develop mitigation plans for the extraordinary risks associated with each potential mission scenario. The HSRB comprises research, technology, and operations experts in medicine, physiology, psychology, human factors, radiation, toxicology, microbiology, pharmacology, and food sciences. Methods: Owing to the wide range of potential mission characteristics, we first identified the hazards to human health and performance common to all exploration missions: altered gravity, isolation/confinement, increased radiation, distance from Earth, and hostile/closed environment. Each hazard leads to a set of risks to crew health and/or performance. For example the radiation hazard leads to risks of acute radiation syndrome, central nervous system dysfunction, soft tissue degeneration, and carcinogenesis. Some of these risks (e.g., acute radiation syndrome) could affect crew health or performance during the mission, while others (e.g., carcinogenesis) would more likely affect the crewmember well after the mission ends. We next defined a set of design reference missions (DRM) that would span the range of exploration missions currently under consideration. In addition to standard (6-month) and long-duration (1-year) missions in low Earth orbit (LEO), these DRM include deep space sortie missions of 1 month duration, lunar orbital and landing missions of 1 year duration, deep space journey and asteroid landing missions of 1 year duration, and Mars orbital and landing missions of 3 years duration. We then

  2. Communication strategies to address geohydrological risks: the POLARIS web initiative in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salvati, Paola; Pernice, Umberto; Bianchi, Cinzia; Marchesini, Ivan; Fiorucci, Federica; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2016-06-01

    Floods and landslides are common phenomena that cause serious damage and pose a severe threat to the population of Italy. The social and economic impact of floods and landslides in Italy is severe, and strategies to target the mitigation of the effects of these phenomena are needed. In the last few years, the scientific community has started to use web technology to communicate information on geohydrological hazards and the associated risks. However, the communication is often targeted at technical experts. In the attempt to communicate relevant information on geohydrological hazards with potential human consequences to a broader audience, we designed the POpoLazione A RISchio (POLARIS) website. POLARIS publishes accurate information on geohydrological risk to the population of Italy, including periodic reports on landslide and flood risk, analyses of specific damaging events and blog posts on landslide and flood events. By monitoring the access to POLARIS in the 21-month period between January 2014 and October 2015, we found that access increased during particularly damaging geohydrological events and immediately after the website was advertised by press releases. POLARIS demonstrates that the scientific community can implement suitable communication strategies that address different societal audiences, exploiting the role of mass media and social media. The strategies can help multiple audiences understand how risks can be reduced through appropriate measures and behaviours, contributing to increasing the resilience of the population to geohydrological risk.

  3. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

  4. Multiple environmental contexts and preterm birth risks

    EPA Science Inventory

    Human health is affected by simultaneous exposure to numerous stressors and amenities, but research often focuses on single exposure models. To address this, a United States county-level Multiple Environmental Domain Index (MEDI) was constructed with data representing five envir...

  5. Teachers' Risk Perception and Needs in Addressing Infectious Disease Outbreak

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wong, Emmy M. Y.; Cheng, May M. H.; Lo, S.K.

    2010-01-01

    The outbreak of the Influenza A (H1N1) virus has led to numerous precautionary school closures in several countries. No research is available on the school teachers' perceptions as a health protective resource in controlling communicable disease outbreaks. The purposes of this study were to examine the risk perception, the perceived understanding…

  6. Addressing Risk in the Acquisition Lifecycle With Enterprise Simulation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-04-30

    interactions ( Albino , Carbonara, & Giannoccaro, 2007). Organizational simulation seeks to model the behavior of people and firms in the context of...well as analysis of particular risks. References Albino , V., Carbonara, N., & Giannoccaro, I. (2007). Supply chain cooperation in industrial districts

  7. Multiple births and risk of breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Dietz, A T; Newcomb, P A; Storer, B E; Longnecker, M P; Mittendorf, R

    1995-07-17

    Data from a large, multicenter, population-based case-control study were analyzed to investigate the relation between multiple birth pregnancies and subsequent breast-cancer risk in the gravidas. Women less than 75 years old who had breast cancer were identified from statewide tumor registries in Wisconsin, western Massachusetts, Maine and New Hampshire. Controls aged less than 65 years were selected randomly from lists of licensed drivers, and controls aged between 65 and 74 were selected randomly from lists of Medicare beneficiaries. Information on reproductive history and other factors was obtained by means of telephone interviews. After excluding nulliparous women, 5,880 case subjects and 8,217 controls remained for analysis. Multiple birth pregnancies occurred in 146 cases and 218 controls. Adjusted for the number of full-term pregnancies and other confounders, the odds ratio (OR) for any multiple birth pregnancy was 0.94 (95% confidence interval, 0.75 to 1.17). The null association between multiple birth pregnancies and breast cancer remained if the mother's first pregnancy or last pregnancy resulted in a multiple birth. In addition, no trend in risk emerged for age at first multiple birth or time since last multiple birth. While other investigators have suggested biological mechanisms to explain both protective and detrimental effects of multiple births and subsequent development of breast cancer, this study does not support either assertion.

  8. Addressing multiple relationships between clients and therapists in lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender communities.

    PubMed

    Kessler, Laura E; Waehler, Charles A

    2005-02-01

    Therapists working in lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) communities are likely to experience the potential to engage in multiple relationships with their clients. Currently, the American Psychological Association's (2002) ethics code and the related literature base offer minimal direct guidance to therapists practicing in LGBT communities. In this article, the authors review current literature regarding multiple relationships in psychotherapy, considering how this literature addresses issues specific to practitioners working within LGBT communities, present a case study highlighting the negotiation of a multiple relationship between a client and therapist who both identify as lesbian, and offer recommendations for practitioners working within LGBT communities.

  9. Addressing the Multiplication Makes Bigger and Division Makes Smaller Misconceptions via Prediction and Clickers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lim, Kien H.

    2011-01-01

    This article presents a lesson that uses prediction items, clickers and visuals via PowerPoint slides to help prospective middle-school teachers address two common misconceptions: multiplication makes bigger and division makes smaller (MMB-DMS). Classroom research was conducted to explore the viability of such a lesson. Results show that the…

  10. A Risk Score for Predicting Multiple Sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Dobson, Ruth; Ramagopalan, Sreeram; Topping, Joanne; Smith, Paul; Solanky, Bhavana; Schmierer, Klaus; Chard, Declan; Giovannoni, Gavin

    2016-01-01

    Objective Multiple sclerosis (MS) develops as a result of environmental influences on the genetically susceptible. Siblings of people with MS have an increased risk of both MS and demonstrating asymptomatic changes in keeping with MS. We set out to develop an MS risk score integrating both genetic and environmental risk factors. We used this score to identify siblings at extremes of MS risk and attempted to validate the score using brain MRI. Methods 78 probands with MS, 121 of their unaffected siblings and 103 healthy controls were studied. Personal history was taken, and serological and genetic analysis using the illumina immunochip was performed. Odds ratios for MS associated with each risk factor were derived from existing literature, and the log values of the odds ratios from each of the risk factors were combined in an additive model to provide an overall score. Scores were initially calculated using log odds ratio from the HLA-DRB1*1501 allele only, secondly using data from all MS-associated SNPs identified in the 2011 GWAS. Subjects with extreme risk scores underwent validation studies. MRI was performed on selected individuals. Results There was a significant difference in the both risk scores between people with MS, their unaffected siblings and healthy controls (p<0.0005). Unaffected siblings had a risk score intermediate to people with MS and controls (p<0.0005). The best performing risk score generated an AUC of 0.82 (95%CI 0.75–0.88). Interpretations The risk score demonstrates an AUC on the threshold for clinical utility. Our score enables the identification of a high-risk sibling group to inform pre-symptomatic longitudinal studies. PMID:27802296

  11. Are health-based payments a feasible tool for addressing risk segmentation?

    PubMed

    Rogal, D L; Gauthier, A K

    1998-01-01

    As they attempt to increase health insurance coverage and improve the efficiency of the market, researchers, policymakers, and health plan representatives have been addressing the issue of risk segmentation. Many risk assessment tools and risk-adjusted payment methodologies have been developed and demonstrated for a variety of populations and payers experiencing various market constraints. The evidence shows that risk-adjusted payments are feasible for most populations receiving acute care, while technical obstacles, political issues, and some research gaps remain.

  12. Using risk management files to identify and address causative factors associated with adverse events in pediatrics

    PubMed Central

    Hain, Paul D; Pichert, James W; Hickson, Gerald B; Bledsoe, Sandra H; Hamming, David; Hathaway, Jacob; Nguyen, Carolyn

    2007-01-01

    We report a retrospective analysis of 84 consecutive pediatrics-related internal review files opened by a medical center’s risk managers between 1996 and 2001. The aims were to identify common causative factors associated with adverse events/adverse outcomes (AEs) in a Pediatrics Department, then suggest ways to improve care. The main outcome was identification of any patterns of factors that contributed to AEs so that interventions could be designed to address them. Cases were noted to have at least one apparent contributing problem; the most common were with communication (44% of cases), diagnosis and treatment (37%), medication errors (20%), and IV/Central line issues (17%). 45% of files involved a child with an underlying diagnosis putting her/him at high risk for an adverse outcome. All Pediatrics Departments face multiple challenges in assuring consistent quality care. The extent to which the data generalize to other institutions is unknown. However, the data suggest that systematic analysis of aggregated claims files may help identify and drive opportunities for improvement in care. PMID:18472985

  13. Achieving Success with More Students: Addressing the Problem of Students At Risk, K-12.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pennsylvania State Dept. of Education, Harrisburg.

    This resource book was developed to provide information that state and local leaders can use to stimulate discussion of the problem of students at risk and support the planning of initiatives that address the problem. An overview defines students at risk, summarizes the content of the book, and lists recent reports and publications on the problem…

  14. [Risk of affective disorder in multiple sclerosis].

    PubMed

    Stenager, Elsebeth Nylev; Stage, Kurt Bjerregaard; Stenager, Egon

    2011-01-10

    An increased risk for depression has been found in multiple sclerosis (MS). The purpose of the present study has been to give suggestions to guidelines for diagnosis and treatment of depression in MS in Denmark based on the international literature and recommendations. The method was a review of the relevant literature. The study recommends assessment of all MS patients for depression. Treatment of depression with serotonin reuptake inhibitors and/or cognitive behavioural therapy is recommended, depending on the severity of the illness. Caution is recommended in patients receiving beta interferon treatment.

  15. Ultrasensitive photoelectrochemical biosensing of multiple biomarkers on a single electrode by a light addressing strategy.

    PubMed

    Wang, Juan; Liu, Zhihong; Hu, Chengguo; Hu, Shengshui

    2015-09-15

    Ultrasensitive multiplexed detection of biomarkers on a single electrode is usually a great challenge for electrochemical sensors. Here, a light addressable photoelectrochemical sensor (LAPECS) for the sensitive detection of multiple DNA biomarkers on a single electrode was reported. The sensor was constructed through four steps: (1) immobilization of capture DNA (C-DNA) of different targets on different areas of a single large-sized gold film electrode, (2) recognition of each target DNA (T-DNA) and the corresponding biotin-labeled probe DNA (P-DNA) through hybridization, (3) reaction of the biotin-labeled probe DNA with a streptavidin-labeled all-carbon PEC bioprobe, and (4) PEC detection of multiple DNA targets one by one via a light addressing strategy. Through this principle, the LAPECS can achieve ultrasensitive detection of three DNA sequences related to hepatitis B (HBV), hepatitis C (HCV) and human immunodeficiency (HIV) viruses with a similar wide calibration range of 1.0 pM ∼ 0.01 μM and a low detection limit of 0.7 pM by using one kind of PEC bioprobe. Moreover, the detection throughput of LAPECS may be conveniently expanded by simply enlarging the size of the substrate electrode or reducing the size of the sensing arrays and the light beam. The present work thus demonstrates the promising applications of LAPECS in developing portable, sensitive, high-throughput, and cost-effective biosensing systems.

  16. Addressing the multiplication makes bigger and division makes smaller misconceptions via prediction and clickers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lim, Kien H.

    2011-12-01

    This article presents a lesson that uses prediction items, clickers and visuals via PowerPoint slides to help prospective middle-school teachers address two common misconceptions: multiplication makes bigger and division makes smaller (MMB-DMS). Classroom research was conducted to explore the viability of such a lesson. Results show that the lesson was effective in creating awareness that multiplication does not always make bigger and division does not always makes smaller, uncovering students' misconceptions, and providing opportunities for students to learn from mistakes. Students liked the activity for various reasons, such as getting to learn certain mathematical ideas, to think about the problems, to work in groups and to have fun. The lesson was implemented slightly differently in two classes. The class with an additional phase involving prediction and voting via clickers in the PowerPoint lesson showed a gain of 36 points (an effect size of 1.3 standard deviations, SDs) from the pre-test to the exit-test whereas, the comparison class showed a gain of 25 points (an effect size of 0.87 SDs). In terms of students' written responses with regards to addressing the MMB-DMS misconceptions, there was however not much difference between the two classes.

  17. Defense Acquisitions: CH-53K Helicopter Program has Addressed Early Difficulties and Adopted Strategies to Address Future Risks

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-04-01

    United States Government Accountability Office GAO Report to the Ranking Member, Subcommittee on Defense, Committee on...Appropriations, House of Representatives DEFENSE ACQUISITIONS CH-53K Helicopter Program Has Addressed Early Difficulties and Adopted Strategies to...S) AND ADDRESS(ES) U.S. Government Accountability Office,441 G Street NW,Washington,DC,20548 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9

  18. Ranking the risks from multiple hazards in a small community.

    PubMed

    Li, Hua; Apostolakis, George E; Gifun, Joseph; VanSchalkwyk, William; Leite, Susan; Barber, David

    2009-03-01

    Natural hazards, human-induced accidents, and malicious acts have caused great losses and disruptions to society. After September 11, 2001, critical infrastructure protection has become a national focus in the United States and is likely to remain one for the foreseeable future. Damage to the infrastructures and assets could be mitigated through predisaster planning and actions. A systematic methodology was developed to assess and rank the risks from these multiple hazards in a community of 20,000 people. It is an interdisciplinary study that includes probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), decision analysis, and expert judgment. Scenarios are constructed to show how the initiating events evolve into undesirable consequences. A value tree, based on multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT), is used to capture the decisionmaker's preferences about the impacts on the infrastructures and other assets. The risks from random failures are ranked according to their expected performance index (PI), which is the product of frequency, probabilities, and consequences of a scenario. Risks from malicious acts are ranked according to their PI as the frequency of attack is not available. A deliberative process is used to capture the factors that could not be addressed in the analysis and to scrutinize the results. This methodology provides a framework for the development of a risk-informed decision strategy. Although this study uses the Massachusetts Institute of Technology campus as a case study of a real project, it is a general methodology that could be used by other similar communities and municipalities.

  19. 76 FR 14413 - Risk Mitigation Strategies To Address Potential Procoagulant Activity in Immune Globulin...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-03-16

    ...) pathophysiology of arterial and venous thrombosis in this context; (3) research to identify specific procoagulant...) the role of activated Coagulation Factor XIa in IGIV-associated thrombosis; (6) test methods for... HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration Risk Mitigation Strategies To Address Potential...

  20. Molecular profiling--a tool for addressing emerging gaps in the comparative risk assessment of GMOs.

    PubMed

    Heinemann, Jack A; Kurenbach, Brigitta; Quist, David

    2011-10-01

    Assessing the risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) is required by both international agreement and domestic legislation. Many view the use of the "omics" tools for profiling classes of molecules as useful in risk assessment, but no consensus has formed on the need or value of these techniques for assessing the risks of all GMOs. In this and many other cases, experts support case-by-case use of molecular profiling techniques for risk assessment. We review the latest research on the applicability and usefulness of molecular profiling techniques for GMO risk assessment. As more and more kinds of GMOs and traits are developed, broader use of molecular profiling in a risk assessment may be required to supplement the comparative approach to risk assessment. The literature-based discussions on the use of profiling appear to have settled on two findings: 1. profiling techniques are reliable and relevant, at least no less so than other techniques used in risk assessment; and 2. although not required routinely, regulators should be aware of when they are needed. The dismissal of routine molecular profiling may be confusing to regulators who then lack guidance on when molecular profiling might be worthwhile. Molecular profiling is an important way to increase confidence in risk assessments if the profiles are properly designed to address relevant risks and are applied at the correct stage of the assessment.

  1. An overview of prevention of multiple risk behaviour in adolescence and young adulthood.

    PubMed

    Jackson, Caroline A; Henderson, Marion; Frank, John W; Haw, Sally J

    2012-03-01

    The observed clustering, and shared underlying determinants, of risk behaviours in young people has led to the proposition that interventions should take a broader approach to risk behaviour prevention. In this review we synthesized the evidence on 'what works' to prevent multiple risk behaviour (focusing on tobacco, alcohol and illicit drug use and sexual risk behaviour) for policy-makers, practitioners and academics. We aimed to identify promising intervention programmes and to give a narrative overview of the wider influences on risk behaviour, in order to help inform future intervention strategies and policies. The most promising programme approaches for reducing multiple risk behaviour simultaneously address multiple domains of risk and protective factors predictive of risk behaviour. These programmes seek to increase resilience and promote positive parental/family influences and/or healthy school environments supportive of positive social and emotional development. However, wider influences on risk behaviour, such as culture, media and social climate also need to be addressed through broader social policy change. Furthermore, the importance of positive experiences during transition periods of the child-youth-adult phase of the life course should be appropriately addressed within intervention programmes and broader policy change, to reduce marginalization, social exclusion and the vulnerability of young people during transition periods.

  2. Potential enhancements to addressing programmatic risk in the tank waste remediation system (TWRS) program

    SciTech Connect

    Brothers, A.; Fassbender, L.; Bilyard, G.; Levine, L.

    1996-04-01

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted a Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Risk Management methodology development task. The objective of this task was to develop risk management methodology focused on (1) the use of programmatic risk information in making TWRS architecture selection decisions and (2) the identification/evaluation/selection of TWRS risk-handling actions. Methods for incorporating programmatic risk/uncertainty estimates into trade studies are provided for engineers/analysts. Methods for identifying, evaluating, and selecting risk-handling actions are provided for managers. The guidance provided in this report is designed to help decision-makers make difficult judgments. Current approaches to architecture selection decisions and identification/evaluation/selection of risk-handling actions are summarized. Three categories of sources of programmatic risk (parametric, external, and organizational) are examined. Multiple analytical approaches are presented to enhance the current alternative generation and analysis (AGA) and risk-handling procedures. Appendix A describes some commercially available risk management software tools and Appendix B provides a brief introduction to quantification of risk attitudes. The report provides three levels of analysis for enhancing the AGA Procedure: (1) qualitative discussion coupled with estimated uncertainty ranges for scores in the alternatives-by-criteria matrix; (2) formal elicitation of probability distributions for the alternative scores; and (3) a formal, more structured, comprehensive risk analysis. A framework is also presented for using the AGA programmatic risk analysis results in making better decisions. The report also presents two levels of analysis for evaluation and selection of risk-handling actions: (1) qualitative analysis and judgmental rankings of alternative actions, and (2) Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART).

  3. Risk-based scheduling of multiple search passes for UUVs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baylog, John G.; Wettergren, Thomas A.

    2016-05-01

    This paper addresses selected computational aspects of collaborative search planning when multiple search agents seek to find hidden objects (i.e. mines) in operating environments where the detection process is prone to false alarms. A Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) analysis is applied to construct a Bayesian cost objective function that weighs and combines missed detection and false alarm probabilities. It is shown that for fixed ROC operating points and a validation criterion consisting of a prerequisite number of detection outcomes, an interval exists in the number of conducted search passes over which the risk objective function is supermodular. We show that this property is not retained beyond validation criterion boundaries. We investigate the use of greedy algorithms for distributing search effort and, in particular, examine the double greedy algorithm for its applicability under conditions of varying criteria. Numerical results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.

  4. Addressing the Highest Risk: Environmental Programs at Los Alamos National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Forbes, Elaine E

    2012-06-08

    Report topics: Current status of cleanup; Shift in priorities to address highest risk; Removal of above-ground waste; and Continued focus on protecting water resources. Partnership between the National Nuclear Security Administration's Los Alamos Site Office, DOE Carlsbad Field Office, New Mexico Environment Department, and contractor staff has enabled unprecedented cleanup progress. Progress on TRU campaign is well ahead of plan. To date, have completed 130 shipments vs. 104 planned; shipped 483 cubic meters of above-ground waste (vs. 277 planned); and removed 11,249 PE Ci of material at risk (vs. 9,411 planned).

  5. Multiple Sclerosis Associated Risk Factors: A Case-Control Study

    PubMed Central

    POOROLAJAL, Jalal; MAZDEH, Mehrdokht; SAATCHI, Mohammad; TALEBI GHANE, Elaheh; BIDERAFSH, Azam; LOTFI, Bahar; FERYADRES, Mohammad; PAJOHI, Khabat

    2015-01-01

    Background: Hamadan Province is one of the high-risk regions in Iran for Multiple sclerosis (MS). A majority of the epidemiological studies conducted in Iran addressing MS are descriptive. This study was conducted to assess MS and its associated risk factors in Hamadan Province, the west of Iran. Methods: This case-control study compared 100 patients with MS (case group) and 100 patients with acute infectious diseases (control group) from September 2013 to March 2014. A checklist was used to assess the demographic, medical, and family history of the patients. The Friedman-Rosenman questionnaire was also used to assess personality type. Statistical analysis was performed using logistic regression model with Stata 11 software program. Results: The adjusted odds ratio (OR) estimate of MS was 4.37 (95% CI: 2.33, 8.20) for females compared to males; 0.15 (95% CI: 0.06, 0.43) for people aged above 50 years compared to aged 14 to 29 years; 0.44 (95% CI: 0.21, 0.91) for overweight or obese people compared to normal weights. Crude OR indicated a significant association between the occurrence of MS and exclusive breast feeding, season of birth, and smoking. However, the association was not statistically significant after adjustment for other covariates. Conclusion: The risk of MS is significantly lower in male gender, obese/overweight, and old people. Furthermore, non-smoking, non-exclusive breast-feeding, and born in autumn may increase the risk of MS but need further investigation. However, long-term large prospective cohort studies are needed to investigate the true effect of the potential risk factors on MS. PMID:26744707

  6. Developing a Gap Taxonomy to Address Crew Health Risks in NASA's Human Research Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kundrot, Craig E.; Edwards, J. Michelle

    2009-01-01

    The mission of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is to understand and reduce the risk to crew health and performance in exploration missions. The HRP addresses 27 specific risks by identifying and then filling gaps in understanding the risks and in the ability to disposition the risks. The primary bases for identifying gaps have been past experience and requirements definition. This approach has been very effective in identifying some important, relevant gaps, but may be inadequate for identifying gaps outside the past experience base. We are exploring the use of a gap taxonomy as a comprehensive, underlying conceptual framework that allows a more systematic identification of gaps. The taxonomy is based on these stages in medical care: prediction, prevention, detection/diagnosis, treatment, monitoring, rehabilitation, and lifetime surveillance. This gap taxonomy approach identifies new gaps in HRP health risks. Many of the new gaps suggest risk reduction approaches that are more cost effective than present approaches. A major benefit of the gap taxonomy approach is to identify new, economical approaches that reduce the likelihood and/or consequence of a risk.

  7. Moving beyond regression techniques in cardiovascular risk prediction: applying machine learning to address analytic challenges.

    PubMed

    Goldstein, Benjamin A; Navar, Ann Marie; Carter, Rickey E

    2016-07-19

    Risk prediction plays an important role in clinical cardiology research. Traditionally, most risk models have been based on regression models. While useful and robust, these statistical methods are limited to using a small number of predictors which operate in the same way on everyone, and uniformly throughout their range. The purpose of this review is to illustrate the use of machine-learning methods for development of risk prediction models. Typically presented as black box approaches, most machine-learning methods are aimed at solving particular challenges that arise in data analysis that are not well addressed by typical regression approaches. To illustrate these challenges, as well as how different methods can address them, we consider trying to predicting mortality after diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction. We use data derived from our institution's electronic health record and abstract data on 13 regularly measured laboratory markers. We walk through different challenges that arise in modelling these data and then introduce different machine-learning approaches. Finally, we discuss general issues in the application of machine-learning methods including tuning parameters, loss functions, variable importance, and missing data. Overall, this review serves as an introduction for those working on risk modelling to approach the diffuse field of machine learning.

  8. Sociodemographic predictors of multiple non-communicable disease risk factors among older adults in South Africa

    PubMed Central

    Phaswana-Mafuya, Nancy; Peltzer, Karl; Chirinda, Witness; Musekiwa, Alfred; Kose, Zamakayise

    2013-01-01

    Background and objective Unhealthy lifestyle behaviours are important risk factors of morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to explore the sociodemographic predictors of multiple non-communicable disease (NCD) risk factors experienced by elderly South Africans. Methods We conducted a national population-based cross-sectional survey with a sample of 3,840 individuals aged 50 years or above in South Africa in 2008. The outcome variable was the co-existence of multiple NCD risk factors (tobacco use, alcohol, physical inactivity, fruit and vegetable intake, overweight or obesity, and hypertension) in each individual. The exposure variables were sociodemographic characteristics, namely, age, gender, education, wealth status, population group, marital status, and residence. Multivariate linear regression was used to assess the association between sociodemographic variables and multiple NCD risk factors. Results The mean number of NCD risk factors among all participants was three (95% confidence interval: 2.81–3.10). Multivariate linear regression analysis revealed that being female, being in the age group of 60–69 years, and being from the Coloured and Black African race were associated with a higher number of NCD risk factors. Marital status, educational level, wealth, and residence were not significantly associated with the number of NCD risk factors experienced. Conclusions The co-existence of multiple lifestyle NCD risk factors among the elderly is a public health concern. Comprehensive health-promotion interventions addressing the co-existence of multiple NCD risk factors tailored for specific sociodemographic groups are needed. PMID:24044582

  9. Addressing heterogeneous parental concerns about vaccination with a multiple-source model

    PubMed Central

    Hagood, E Allison; Herlihy, Stacy Mintzer

    2013-01-01

    Previous models of vaccine education have not addressed differences in levels and motives of vaccine concerns in parents. These differences may require changes in education approaches based on type of parental concern. Addressing vaccine concerns will require a multi-modal approach involving more than just a pediatrician or primary health care provider, as well as more than one educational approach. PMID:23732902

  10. Addressing the Needs of St. Louis Children At Risk. A Report to the Community from Project Respond.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Patton, Richard H.; And Others

    This document reports the findings of Project Respond, a program designed to develop a model for assessing and addressing risk to children in the St. Louis community. Section A concerns: (1) a definition of risk; (2) effects of profound sociological risk on children; (3) social and economic costs of sociological risk. In Section B, the Project…

  11. Antipsychotics and Mortality: Adjusting for Mortality Risk Scores to Address Confounding by Terminal Illness

    PubMed Central

    Park, Yoonyoung; Franklin, Jessica M.; Schneeweiss, Sebastian; Levin, Raisa; Crystal, Stephen; Gerhard, Tobias; Huybrechts, Krista F.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES Earlier studies have documented a greater mortality risk associated with conventional compared with atypical antipsychotics. Concern remains that the association is not causal, but due to residual confounding by differences in underlying health. To address this concern, we evaluated whether adjustment for prognostic indices specifically developed fornursing home (NH) populations affected the magnitude of the previously observed associations. DESIGN Cohort study SETTING A merged dataset of Medicaid, Medicare, the Minimum Data Set (MDS), the Online Survey Certification and Reporting system (OSCAR), and the National Death Index in the US for 2001-2005 PARTICIPANTS Dual eligible subjects ≥ 65 years who initiated antipsychotic treatment in a NH (n=75,445). MEASUREMENTS Three mortality risk scores (MRIS, MMRI-R, and ADEPT) were derived for each patient using baseline MDS data, and their performance was assessed using c-statistics and goodness-of-fit tests. The impact of adjusting for these indices in addition to propensity scores (PS) on the antipsychotic-mortality association was evaluated using Cox models with and without adjustment for risk scores. RESULTS Each risk score showed moderate discrimination for 6-month mortality with c-statistics ranging from 0.61 to 0.63. There was no evidence of lack of fit. Imbalances in risk scores between conventional and atypical antipsychotic users in the full cohort, suggesting potential confounding, were greatly reduced within PS deciles. Accounting for each score in the Cox model did not change the relative risk estimates: 2.24 with PS only adjustment vs. 2.20, 2.20, 2.22 after further adjustment for the three risk scores. CONCLUSION Although causality cannot be proven based on non-randomized studies, this study adds to the body of evidence rejecting alternative explanations for the increased mortality risk associated with conventional antipsychotics. PMID:25752911

  12. For telehealth to succeed, privacy and security risks must be identified and addressed.

    PubMed

    Hall, Joseph L; McGraw, Deven

    2014-02-01

    The success of telehealth could be undermined if serious privacy and security risks are not addressed. For example, sensors that are located in a patient's home or that interface with the patient's body to detect safety issues or medical emergencies may inadvertently transmit sensitive information about household activities. Similarly, routine data transmissions from an app or medical device, such as an insulin pump, may be shared with third-party advertisers. Without adequate security and privacy protections for underlying telehealth data and systems, providers and patients will lack trust in the use of telehealth solutions. Although some federal and state guidelines for telehealth security and privacy have been established, many gaps remain. No federal agency currently has authority to enact privacy and security requirements to cover the telehealth ecosystem. This article examines privacy risks and security threats to telehealth applications and summarizes the extent to which technical controls and federal law adequately address these risks. We argue for a comprehensive federal regulatory framework for telehealth, developed and enforced by a single federal entity, the Federal Trade Commission, to bolster trust and fully realize the benefits of telehealth.

  13. Addressing Gender-Based Violence at Schools for Learners with Intellectual Disability in Gauteng, South Africa: A Multiple Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Phasha, T. N.; Nyokangi, D.

    2012-01-01

    This paper reports part of the findings of the study which investigated sexual violence at two schools catering specifically for learners with mild intellectual disability in Gauteng Province. It looks particularly on participants' suggestions for addressing sexual violence in such school. A multiple case study within the qualitative research…

  14. Iudicium: An Educational Intervention for addressing Risk Perception of Alcohol Abuse in Adolescents.

    PubMed

    Bajac, Héctor; Feliu-Soler, Albert; Meerhoff, Diana; Latorre, Laura; Elices, Matilde

    2016-03-02

    Negative consequences of alcohol abuse during adolescence have been extensively described. Consequently, different interventions have been developed to address this issue. This article describes the implementation and evaluation of Iudicium, an educational drama-based intervention designed to increase risk perception of alcohol abuse. In this activity, high school students judge a case in which alcohol consumption had negative consequences (e.g., fights, unwanted pregnancy, and car accident). A trial is simulated and after that, a debriefing takes place during which the activity is discussed and informational materials on the effects of alcohol is provided and commented. A total of 318 students (55.7% females and 44.3% males) from five high schools participated in the study. Data regarding risk perception of alcohol abuse and adequacy of the activity was collected before and after the intervention. Results suggest that Iudicium was effective in increasing risk perception of abusive drinking, reaching a 34% of increase regarding risk perception. Participants highlighted the experiential component of Iudicium as a strength. The intervention was well-accepted, easy to understand and apparently an effective tool for increasing risk perception of alcohol abuse amongst high school students.

  15. 76 FR 2369 - Priorities for Addressing Risks to the Reliability of the Bulk-Power System; Notice of Technical...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-01-13

    ... Energy Regulatory Commission Priorities for Addressing Risks to the Reliability of the Bulk- Power System... related to reliability of the Bulk-Power System, including priorities for addressing risks to reliability.... The conference will be Webcast. Anyone with Internet access who desires to listen to this event can...

  16. Interactive actuation of multiple opto-thermocapillary flow-addressed bubble microrobots

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Wenqi; Fan, Qihui; Ohta, Aaron T

    2014-01-01

    Opto-thermocapillary flow-addressed bubble (OFB) microrobots are a potential tool for the efficient transportation of micro-objects. This microrobot system uses light patterns to generate thermal gradients within a liquid medium, creating thermocapillary forces that actuate the bubble microrobots. An interactive control system that includes scanning mirrors and a touchscreen interface was developed to address up to ten OFB microrobots. Using this system, the parallel and cooperative transportation of 20-μm-diameter polystyrene beads was demonstrated. PMID:25678988

  17. Interventions addressing risk factors of ischaemic heart disease in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review

    PubMed Central

    Ebireri, Jennifer; Aderemi, Adewale V; Omoregbe, Nicholas; Adeloye, Davies

    2016-01-01

    Background Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is currently ranked eighth among the leading causes of deaths in sub-Saharan Africa (sSA). Yet, effective population-wide preventive measures targeting risks in the region are still largely unavailable. We aimed to review population-wide and individual-level interventions addressing risk factors of IHD among adults in sSA. Methods A systematic search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health and AJOL was conducted to identify studies focusing on population-wide and individual-level interventions targeting risks of IHD among adults in sSA. We conducted a detailed synthesis of basic findings of selected studies. Results A total of 2311 studies were identified, with only 9 studies meeting our selection criteria. 3 broad interventions were identified: dietary modifications, physical activity and community-based health promotion measures on tobacco and alcohol cessation. 3 studies reported significant reduction in blood pressure (BP), and another study reported statistically significant reduction in mean total cholesterol. Other outcome measures observed ranged from mild to no reduction in BP, blood glucose, body mass index and total cholesterol, respectively. Conclusions We cannot specify with all certainty contextually feasible interventions that can be effective in modifying IHD risk factors in population groups across sSA. We recommend more research on IHD, particularly on the understanding of the burden, geared towards developing and/or strengthening preventive and treatment interventions for the disease in sSA. PMID:27381212

  18. Comic Relief: Graduate Students Address Multiple Meanings for Technology Integration with Digital Comic Creation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sockman, Beth Rajan; Sutton, Rhonda; Herrmann, Michele

    2016-01-01

    This study determined the usefulness of digital comic creation with 77 graduate students in a teacher technology course. Students completed an assigned reading and created digital comics that addressed technology integration concerns in the schools and society. Using practical action research, 77 student-created comics were analyzed. The findings…

  19. Binary variable multiple-model multiple imputation to address missing data mechanism uncertainty: application to a smoking cessation trial.

    PubMed

    Siddique, Juned; Harel, Ofer; Crespi, Catherine M; Hedeker, Donald

    2014-07-30

    The true missing data mechanism is never known in practice. We present a method for generating multiple imputations for binary variables, which formally incorporates missing data mechanism uncertainty. Imputations are generated from a distribution of imputation models rather than a single model, with the distribution reflecting subjective notions of missing data mechanism uncertainty. Parameter estimates and standard errors are obtained using rules for nested multiple imputation. Using simulation, we investigate the impact of missing data mechanism uncertainty on post-imputation inferences and show that incorporating this uncertainty can increase the coverage of parameter estimates. We apply our method to a longitudinal smoking cessation trial where nonignorably missing data were a concern. Our method provides a simple approach for formalizing subjective notions regarding nonresponse and can be implemented using existing imputation software.

  20. Addressing Missing Data Mechanism Uncertainty using Multiple-Model Multiple Imputation: Application to a Longitudinal Clinical Trial.

    PubMed

    Siddique, Juned; Harel, Ofer; Crespi, Catherine M

    2012-12-01

    We present a framework for generating multiple imputations for continuous data when the missing data mechanism is unknown. Imputations are generated from more than one imputation model in order to incorporate uncertainty regarding the missing data mechanism. Parameter estimates based on the different imputation models are combined using rules for nested multiple imputation. Through the use of simulation, we investigate the impact of missing data mechanism uncertainty on post-imputation inferences and show that incorporating this uncertainty can increase the coverage of parameter estimates. We apply our method to a longitudinal clinical trial of low-income women with depression where nonignorably missing data were a concern. We show that different assumptions regarding the missing data mechanism can have a substantial impact on inferences. Our method provides a simple approach for formalizing subjective notions regarding nonresponse so that they can be easily stated, communicated, and compared.

  1. Addressing Emerging Risks: Scientific and Regulatory Challenges Associated with Environmentally Persistent Free Radicals

    PubMed Central

    Dugas, Tammy R.; Lomnicki, Slawomir; Cormier, Stephania A.; Dellinger, Barry; Reams, Margaret

    2016-01-01

    Airborne fine and ultrafine particulate matter (PM) are often generated through widely-used thermal processes such as the combustion of fuels or the thermal decomposition of waste. Residents near Superfund sites are exposed to PM through the inhalation of windblown dust, ingestion of soil and sediments, and inhalation of emissions from the on-site thermal treatment of contaminated soils. Epidemiological evidence supports a link between exposure to airborne PM and an increased risk of cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases. It is well-known that during combustion processes, incomplete combustion can lead to the production of organic pollutants that can adsorb to the surface of PM. Recent studies have demonstrated that their interaction with metal centers can lead to the generation of a surface stabilized metal-radical complex capable of redox cycling to produce ROS. Moreover, these free radicals can persist in the environment, hence their designation as Environmentally Persistent Free Radicals (EPFR). EPFR has been demonstrated in both ambient air PM2.5 (diameter < 2.5 µm) and in PM from a variety of combustion sources. Thus, low-temperature, thermal treatment of soils can potentially increase the concentration of EPFR in areas in and around Superfund sites. In this review, we will outline the evidence to date supporting EPFR formation and its environmental significance. Furthermore, we will address the lack of methodologies for specifically addressing its risk assessment and challenges associated with regulating this new, emerging contaminant. PMID:27338429

  2. Addressing Emerging Risks: Scientific and Regulatory Challenges Associated with Environmentally Persistent Free Radicals.

    PubMed

    Dugas, Tammy R; Lomnicki, Slawomir; Cormier, Stephania A; Dellinger, Barry; Reams, Margaret

    2016-06-08

    Airborne fine and ultrafine particulate matter (PM) are often generated through widely-used thermal processes such as the combustion of fuels or the thermal decomposition of waste. Residents near Superfund sites are exposed to PM through the inhalation of windblown dust, ingestion of soil and sediments, and inhalation of emissions from the on-site thermal treatment of contaminated soils. Epidemiological evidence supports a link between exposure to airborne PM and an increased risk of cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases. It is well-known that during combustion processes, incomplete combustion can lead to the production of organic pollutants that can adsorb to the surface of PM. Recent studies have demonstrated that their interaction with metal centers can lead to the generation of a surface stabilized metal-radical complex capable of redox cycling to produce ROS. Moreover, these free radicals can persist in the environment, hence their designation as Environmentally Persistent Free Radicals (EPFR). EPFR has been demonstrated in both ambient air PM2.5 (diameter < 2.5 µm) and in PM from a variety of combustion sources. Thus, low-temperature, thermal treatment of soils can potentially increase the concentration of EPFR in areas in and around Superfund sites. In this review, we will outline the evidence to date supporting EPFR formation and its environmental significance. Furthermore, we will address the lack of methodologies for specifically addressing its risk assessment and challenges associated with regulating this new, emerging contaminant.

  3. Other High-Risk Factors for Young Drivers--How Graduated Licensing Does, Doesn't, or Could Address Them.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ferguson, Susan A.

    2003-01-01

    Examines the risk factors underlying the high crash rates of newly licensed drivers and assesses the extent to which existing graduated driver-licensing programs address these risks. Discusses such risks as driver fatigue, not using seat belts, high speeds, high-powered vehicles, and in-vehicle distractions. (Contains 66 references.) (AUTHOR/WFA)

  4. Risk newsboy: approach for addressing uncertainty in developing action levels and cleanup limits

    SciTech Connect

    Cooke, Roger; MacDonell, Margaret

    2007-07-01

    Site cleanup decisions involve developing action levels and residual limits for key contaminants, to assure health protection during the cleanup period and into the long term. Uncertainty is inherent in the toxicity information used to define these levels, based on incomplete scientific knowledge regarding dose-response relationships across various hazards and exposures at environmentally relevant levels. This problem can be addressed by applying principles used to manage uncertainty in operations research, as illustrated by the newsboy dilemma. Each day a newsboy must balance the risk of buying more papers than he can sell against the risk of not buying enough. Setting action levels and cleanup limits involves a similar concept of balancing and distributing risks and benefits in the face of uncertainty. The newsboy approach can be applied to develop health-based target concentrations for both radiological and chemical contaminants, with stakeholder input being crucial to assessing 'regret' levels. Associated tools include structured expert judgment elicitation to quantify uncertainty in the dose-response relationship, and mathematical techniques such as probabilistic inversion and iterative proportional fitting. (authors)

  5. Focusing Events and Constrains on Policy Addressing Long-Term Climate Change Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Donovan, K.

    2014-12-01

    When policy makers are aware of immediate and long-term risks to communities, what do they do to plan for and mitigate the effects of climate change? This paper addresses that question in two ways. First, as an organizing framework it presents an overview of the empirical evidence on focusing events. Focusing events are defined as sudden, rare events that reveal harm or the potential for future harm that the general public and policy makers become aware of simultaneously. These large-scale events are typically natural and disasters, crisis, or technological accidents. This paper considers the empirical evidence of the relationship between focusing events, the harm revealed by the event and policy change aimed at reducing future risk of harm. Second, this paper reviews the case of flood mitigation policy in the United States from 1968 to 2008. It considers the ways in which policy makers have and have not integrated future flood risks into mitigation policy and planning, particularly after large-scale floods. It analyzes the political, intergovernmental, demographic and geographic factors that have promoted and constrained long-term flood mitigation policy. This paper concludes with a discussion of the meaning and implications of potential focusing events and constrains on policy for long-term climate change concerns.

  6. Risk Prediction Models for Other Cancers or Multiple Sites

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing other multiple cancers over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  7. Genes and Environment in Multiple Sclerosis project: A platform to investigate multiple sclerosis risk.

    PubMed

    Xia, Zongqi; White, Charles C; Owen, Emily K; Von Korff, Alina; Clarkson, Sarah R; McCabe, Cristin A; Cimpean, Maria; Winn, Phoebe A; Hoesing, Ashley; Steele, Sonya U; Cortese, Irene C M; Chitnis, Tanuja; Weiner, Howard L; Reich, Daniel S; Chibnik, Lori B; De Jager, Philip L

    2016-02-01

    The Genes and Environment in Multiple Sclerosis project establishes a platform to investigate the events leading to multiple sclerosis (MS) in at-risk individuals. It has recruited 2,632 first-degree relatives from across the USA. Using an integrated genetic and environmental risk score, we identified subjects with twice the MS risk when compared to the average family member, and we report an initial incidence rate in these subjects that is 30 times greater than that of sporadic MS. We discuss the feasibility of large-scale studies of asymptomatic at-risk subjects that leverage modern tools of subject recruitment to execute collaborative projects.

  8. Development of an Internet Intervention to Address Behaviors Associated with Skin Cancer Risk among Young Adults

    PubMed Central

    Heckman, Carolyn; Darlow, Susan; Munshi, Teja; Caruso, Carolyn; Ritterband, Lee; Raivitch, Stephanie; Fleisher, Linda; Manne, Sharon

    2015-01-01

    Purpose Skin cancer is the most common cancer in the US, and its incidence is increasing. The major risk factor for skin cancer is exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UV). Young adults tend to expose themselves to large amounts of UV and engage in minimal skin protection, which increases their skin cancer risk. Interventions are needed to address risk behaviors among young adults that may lead to skin cancer. The nternet offers a cost-effective way to widely disseminate efficacious interventions. The current paper describes the development of an online skin cancer risk reduction intervention (UV4.me) for young adults. Procedures The iterative development process for UV4.me followed best-practice guidelines and included the following activities: individual interviews, focus groups, content development by the expert team, acceptability testing, cognitive interviewing for questionnaires, quality control testing, usability testing, and a pilot randomized controlled trial. Participant acceptability and usability feedback was assessed. Principal Results The development process produced an evidence-informed intervention that is individually-tailored, interactive, and multimedia in nature based on the Integrative Model of Behavior Prediction, a model for internet interventions, and other best-practice recommendations, expert input, as well as user acceptability and usability feedback gathered before, during, and after development. Major Conclusions Development of an acceptable intervention intended to have a significant public health impact requires a relatively large investment in time, money, expertise, and ongoing user input. Lessons learned and recommendations are discussed. The comprehensive process used may help prepare others interested in creating similar behavioral health interventions. PMID:26640776

  9. Addressing poverty as risk for disease: recommendations from CDC's consultation on microenterprise as HIV prevention.

    PubMed

    Stratford, Dale; Mizuno, Yuko; Williams, Kim; Courtenay-Quirk, Cari; O'leary, Ann

    2008-01-01

    In March 2006, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) convened a consultation meeting to explore microenterprise as a potential human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) prevention intervention. The impulse to link microenterprise with HIV/AIDS prevention was driven by the fact that poverty is a significant factor contributing to the risk for infection. Because increasingly high rates of HIV infection are occurring among women, particularly among poor African American women in the southern United States, we focused the consultation on microenterprise as an intervention among that population. In the international arena, income generated by microenterprise has contributed to improving family and community health outcomes. This article summarizes the contributions made to the consultation by participants from the diverse fields of microenterprise, microfinance, women's studies, and public health. The article ends with recommendations for HIV/AIDS prevention and, by implication, addressing other public health challenges, through the development of multifaceted intervention approaches.

  10. Addressing 3D metrology challenges by using a multiple detector CDSEM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hiroyama, Mitsuo; Murakawa, Tsutomu; Kuribara, Masayuki; Iwai, Toshimichi; Soma, Minoru; Iko, Ikuo; Seyama, Masahiro; Matsumoto, Jun; Nakamura, Takayuki; Hakii, Hidemitsu; Yonekura, Isao; Kawashita, Masashi; Nishiyama, Yasushi; Tanaka, Keishi; Komoto, Kenji

    2011-11-01

    In next generation lithography (NGL) for the 22nm node and beyond, the three dimensional (3D) shape measurements of side wall angle (SWA) and height of the photomask pattern will become critical for controlling the exposure characteristics and wafer printability. Until today, cross-section SEM (X-SEM) and Atomic Force Microscope (AFM) methods are used to make 3D measurements, however, these techniques require time consuming preparation and observation. This paper presents an innovative technology for 3D measurement using a multiple detector CDSEM and reports its accuracy and precision.

  11. Multiple nanowire species synthesized on a single chip by selectively addressable horizontal nanochannels.

    PubMed

    Xiang, Ying; Keilbach, Andreas; Codinachs, Lia Moreno; Nielsch, Kornelius; Abstreiter, Gerhard; Fontcuberta i Morral, Anna; Bein, Thomas

    2010-04-14

    The synthesis of horizontal porous anodic alumina (PAA) structures with individually addressable channel systems is demonstrated. This was achieved by developing a multicontact design of aluminum finger structures (two to five contacts) on silicon wafers. These aluminum contacts were electrically isolated from each other, allowing the individual anodization of each contact at different conditions. This way it is possible to synthesize different pore diameters, pore densities, and channel lengths on a single chip. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) characterization revealed that the neighboring contacts are not significantly altered during the anodization procedure. After successful barrier-layer thinning, the individual finger structures of each contact were filled by electrodeposition and thermal chemical vapor deposition. The resulting metal (Au, Cu, Ni, Co) and semiconductor (Te, Si) nanowires embedded within the porous anodic alumina mold were characterized by SEM and energy dispersive X-ray measurements. The multicontact fabrication results open a new route toward complex nanoelectronic and sensing applications.

  12. WISEWOMAN: addressing the needs of women at high risk for cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Vaid, Isam; Wigington, Charles; Borbely, Deborah; Ferry, Patricia; Manheim, Diane

    2011-07-01

    In the United States, the cardiovascular health of women is affected by the disparate impact of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) on many minority ethnic and racial groups. Women with low income also endure a disproportionate impact of the burden of CVD. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) Well-Integrated Screening and Evaluation for Women Across the Nation (WISEWOMAN) Program was authorized by Congress in 1993 to extend the preventive health services offered to participants of the National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program (NBCCEDP). These are low-income, uninsured, and underinsured women. The intent was to expand services of an existing federal program to address cardiovascular health concerns in this vulnerable, high-risk population. CDC funds 19 state health departments and 2 tribal organizations (both in Alaska) to implement WISEWOMAN. In the first 2 years of the current 5-year funding cycle, which began in June 2008, the WISEWOMAN grantees succeeded in providing almost 78,000 screenings, of which 46% were to women of minority racial and ethnic groups. The individual successes are important, and the WISEWOMAN Program also has achieved success in the broader arenas of healthcare and the communities in which WISEWOMAN is implemented. WISEWOMAN impacts clinical systems of care, provider education, physician extenders, and the broader community and will continue to play an important role in connecting low-income, uninsured, and underinsured women with clinical systems of care and other community resources that will result in the prevention, treatment, and management of their CVD risk.

  13. Near-Term Actions to Address Long-Term Climate Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lempert, R. J.

    2014-12-01

    Addressing climate change requires effective long-term policy making, which occurs when reflecting on potential events decades or more in the future causes policy makers to choose near-term actions different than those they would otherwise pursue. Contrary to some expectations, policy makers do sometimes make such long-term decisions, but not as commonly and successfully as climate change may require. In recent years however, the new capabilities of analytic decision support tools, combined with improved understanding of cognitive and organizational behaviors, has significantly improved the methods available for organizations to manage longer-term climate risks. In particular, these tools allow decision makers to understand what near-term actions consistently contribute to achieving both short- and long-term societal goals, even in the face of deep uncertainty regarding the long-term future. This talk will describe applications of these approaches for infrastructure, water, and flood risk management planning, as well as studies of how near-term choices about policy architectures can affect long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction pathways.

  14. Research approaches to address uncertainties in the risk assessment of arsenic in drinking water

    SciTech Connect

    Hughes, Michael F. Kenyon, Elaina M.; Kitchin, Kirk T.

    2007-08-01

    Inorganic arsenic (iAs), an environmental drinking water contaminant, is a human toxicant and carcinogen. The public health community has developed recommendations and regulations that limit human exposure to iAs in drinking water. Although there is a vast amount of information available to regulators on the exposure, disposition and the health-related effects of iAs, there is still critical information about the toxicology of this metalloid that is needed. This necessary information includes identification of the chemical species of arsenic that is (are) the active toxicant(s), the mode(s) of action for its various toxicities and information on potentially susceptible populations. Because of these unknown factors, the risk assessment of iAs still incorporates default assumptions, leading to uncertainties in the overall assessment. The characteristics of a scientifically defensible risk assessment for iAs are that it must: (1) quantitatively link exposure and target tissue dose of active metabolites to key events in the mode of action for major health effects and (2) identify sources of variation in susceptibility to arsenic-induced health effects and quantitatively evaluate their impact wherever possible. Integration of research to address these goals will better protect the health of iAs-exposed populations.

  15. Addressing Human Variability in Next-Generation Human Health Risk Assessments of Environmental Chemicals

    PubMed Central

    Bois, Frederic Y.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Hattis, Dale; Rusyn, Ivan; Guyton, Kathryn Z.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Characterizing variability in the extent and nature of responses to environmental exposures is a critical aspect of human health risk assessment. Objective: Our goal was to explore how next-generation human health risk assessments may better characterize variability in the context of the conceptual framework for the source-to-outcome continuum. Methods: This review was informed by a National Research Council workshop titled “Biological Factors that Underlie Individual Susceptibility to Environmental Stressors and Their Implications for Decision-Making.” We considered current experimental and in silico approaches, and emerging data streams (such as genetically defined human cells lines, genetically diverse rodent models, human omic profiling, and genome-wide association studies) that are providing new types of information and models relevant for assessing interindividual variability for application to human health risk assessments of environmental chemicals. Discussion: One challenge for characterizing variability is the wide range of sources of inherent biological variability (e.g., genetic and epigenetic variants) among individuals. A second challenge is that each particular pair of health outcomes and chemical exposures involves combinations of these sources, which may be further compounded by extrinsic factors (e.g., diet, psychosocial stressors, other exogenous chemical exposures). A third challenge is that different decision contexts present distinct needs regarding the identification—and extent of characterization—of interindividual variability in the human population. Conclusions: Despite these inherent challenges, opportunities exist to incorporate evidence from emerging data streams for addressing interindividual variability in a range of decision-making contexts. PMID:23086705

  16. GEMS Project: A Platform to Investigate Multiple Sclerosis Risk

    PubMed Central

    Xia, Zongqi; White, Charles C.; Owen, Emily K.; Von Korff, Alina; Clarkson, Sarah R.; McCabe, Cristin A.; Cimpean, Maria; Winn, Phoebe A.; Hoesing, Ashley; Steele, Sonya U.; Cortese, Irene C. M.; Chitnis, Tanuja; Weiner, Howard L.; Reich, Daniel S.; Chibnik, Lori B.; De Jager, Philip L.

    2015-01-01

    The Genes and Environment in Multiple Sclerosis (GEMS) project establishes a platform to investigate the events leading to MS in at-risk individuals. It has recruited 2,632 first-degree relatives from across the USA. Using an integrated genetic and environmental risk score, we identified subjects with twice the MS risk when compared to the average family member, and we report an initial incidence rate in these subjects that is 30 times greater than that of sporadic MS. We discuss the feasibility of large-scale studies of asymptomatic at-risk subjects that leverage modern tools of subject recruitment to execute collaborative projects. PMID:26583565

  17. Food-Based Interventions to Modify Diet Quality and Diversity to Address Multiple Micronutrient Deficiency

    PubMed Central

    Nair, Madhavan K.; Augustine, Little Flower; Konapur, Archana

    2016-01-01

    Global data indicate a high prevalence of hidden hunger among population. Deficiencies of certain micronutrients such as folic acid, iodine, iron, and vitamin A have long lasting effects on growth and development and therefore have been a National priority from many decades. The strategy implemented so far limits to the use of supplemental sources or fortified foods in alleviating the burden of deficiencies. These approaches however undermine the food-based strategies involving dietary diversification as the long-term sustainable strategy. There is lack of understanding on the level of evidence needed to implement such strategies and the level of monitoring required for impact evaluation. Dietary diversity concerns how to ensure access for each individual to a quality and safe diet with adequate macro- and micronutrients. The key to success in using dietary diversity as a strategy to tackle hidden hunger is in integrating it with the principles of bioavailability, translated to efficient food synergies with due emphasis on food accessibility, affordability, and outdoor physical activity/life style modifications. Promoting enabling environment and sustainable agriculture is crucial for practicing dietary diversification with behavior change communication as an integral segment. It can be concluded that food-based strategies require careful understanding of the factors associated with it and moderate it to form an effective strategy for controlling multiple micronutrient deficiencies. PMID:26779472

  18. Resilience and Multiple Risks: A Response to Bernice Wong.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wiener, Judith

    2003-01-01

    This response to a paper on risk and resilience models in learning disabilities research supports this framework for research and practice with regard to the social and emotional functioning of children with learning disabilities. Research is urged to address the effect of family functioning and parenting, peer victimization, and the interaction…

  19. 76 FR 58813 - Guidance for Industry; Measures to Address the Risk for Contamination by Salmonella Species in...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-09-22

    ... Contamination by Salmonella Species in Food Containing a Pistachio- Derived Product as an Ingredient... Address the Risk for Contamination by Salmonella Species in Food Containing a Pistachio-Derived Product as...- derived product as an ingredient that there is a risk that Salmonella species may be present in...

  20. Assessing risk prediction models using individual participant data from multiple studies.

    PubMed

    Pennells, Lisa; Kaptoge, Stephen; White, Ian R; Thompson, Simon G; Wood, Angela M

    2014-03-01

    Individual participant time-to-event data from multiple prospective epidemiologic studies enable detailed investigation into the predictive ability of risk models. Here we address the challenges in appropriately combining such information across studies. Methods are exemplified by analyses of log C-reactive protein and conventional risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, a collation of individual data from multiple prospective studies with an average follow-up duration of 9.8 years (dates varied). We derive risk prediction models using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis stratified by study and obtain estimates of risk discrimination, Harrell's concordance index, and Royston's discrimination measure within each study; we then combine the estimates across studies using a weighted meta-analysis. Various weighting approaches are compared and lead us to recommend using the number of events in each study. We also discuss the calculation of measures of reclassification for multiple studies. We further show that comparison of differences in predictive ability across subgroups should be based only on within-study information and that combining measures of risk discrimination from case-control studies and prospective studies is problematic. The concordance index and discrimination measure gave qualitatively similar results throughout. While the concordance index was very heterogeneous between studies, principally because of differing age ranges, the increments in the concordance index from adding log C-reactive protein to conventional risk factors were more homogeneous.

  1. Multiple risks among male and transgender sex workers in Pakistan.

    PubMed

    Collumbien, Martine; Chow, Jaime; Qureshi, Ayaz Ahmed; Rabbani, Aliya; Hawkes, Sarah

    2008-01-01

    Using data from a qualitative study and a subsequent quantitative survey among 918 male and transgender sex workers (MTSW), we explore the context of multiple risks they face. We show that over one-fifth of MTSW have sex with IDU clients. Combined with high levels of risk behavior and very low levels of risk reduction and knowledge, the extent of sexual networking with men who inject drugs contributes further to the sex workers' health risks. Our findings suggest that isolated interventions with single-risk groups are unlikely to be sufficient to control the spread of the epidemic in Pakistan. We highlight the need for integrated approaches to risk reduction programs among MTSW and IDUs.

  2. Disease-modifying therapies and infectious risks in multiple sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Winkelmann, Alexander; Loebermann, Micha; Reisinger, Emil C; Hartung, Hans-Peter; Zettl, Uwe K

    2016-04-01

    Immunomodulatory and immunosuppressive treatments for multiple sclerosis (MS) are associated with an increased risk of infection, which makes treatment of this condition challenging in daily clinical practice. Use of the expanding range of available drugs to treat MS requires extensive knowledge of treatment-associated infections, risk-minimizing strategies and approaches to monitoring and treatment of such adverse events. An interdisciplinary approach to evaluate the infectious events associated with available MS treatments has become increasingly relevant. In addition, individual stratification of treatment-related infectious risks is necessary when choosing therapies for patients with MS, as well as during and after therapy. Determination of the individual risk of infection following serial administration of different immunotherapies is also crucial. Here, we review the modes of action of the available MS drugs, and relate this information to the current knowledge of drug-specific infectious risks and risk-minimizing strategies.

  3. Addressing Stability Robustness, Period Uncertainties, and Startup of Multiple-Period Repetitive Control for Spacecraft Jitter Mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahn, Edwin S.

    Repetitive Control (RC) is a relatively new form of control that seeks to converge to zero tracking error when executing a periodic command, or when executing a constant command in the presence of a periodic disturbance. The design makes use of knowledge of the period of the disturbance or command, and makes use of the error observed in the previous period to update the command in the present period. The usual RC approaches address one period, and this means that potentially they can simultaneously address DC or constant error, the fundamental frequency for that period, and all harmonics up to Nyquist frequency. Spacecraft often have multiple sources of periodic excitation. Slight imbalance in reaction wheels used for attitude control creates three disturbance periods. A special RC structure was developed to allow one to address multiple unrelated periods which is referred to as Multiple-Period Repetitive Control (MPRC). MPRC in practice faces three main challenges for hardware implementation. One is instability due to model errors or parasitic high frequency modes, the second is degradation of the final error level due to period uncertainties or fluctuations, and the third is bad transients due to issues in startup. Regarding these three challenges, the thesis develops a series of methods to enhance the performance of MPRC or to assist in analyzing its performance for mitigating optical jitter induced by mechanical vibration within the structure of a spacecraft testbed. Experimental analysis of MPRC shows contrasting advantages over existing adaptive control algorithms, such as Filtered-X LMS, Adaptive Model Predictive Control, and Adaptive Basis Method, for mitigating jitter within the transmitting beam of Laser Communication (LaserCom) satellites.

  4. Risk evaluation and monitoring in multiple sclerosis therapeutics

    PubMed Central

    Wolinsky, Jerry S; Ashton, Raymond J; Hartung, Hans-Peter; Reingold, Stephen C

    2014-01-01

    Background: Risk for multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapies (DMT) must be assessed on an ongoing basis. Early concerns regarding the first-approved DMTs for MS have been mitigated, but recently licensed therapies have been linked to possibly greater risks. Objectives: The objective of this review is to discuss risk assessment in MS therapeutics based on an international workshop and comprehensive literature search and recommend strategies for risk assessment/monitoring. Results: Assessment and perception of therapeutic risks vary between patients, doctors and regulators. Acceptability of risk depends on the magnitude of risk and the demonstrated clinical benefits of any agent. Safety signals must be distinguishable from chance occurrences in a clinical trial and in long-term use of medications. Post-marketing research is crucial for assessing longer-term safety in large patient cohorts. Reporting of adverse events is becoming more proactive, allowing more rapid identification of risks. Communication about therapeutic risks and their relationship to clinical benefit must involve patients in shared decision making. Conclusions: It is difficult to produce a general risk-assessment algorithm for all MS therapies. Specific algorithms are required for each DMT in every treated-patient population. New and evolving risks must be evaluated and communicated rapidly to allow patients and physicians to be well informed and able to share treatment decisions. PMID:24293456

  5. Experimental demonstration of a single-carrier frequency division multiple address based PON (SCFDMA-PON) architecture.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Cheng; Li, Juhao; Zhang, Fan; He, Yongqi; Wu, Hequan; Chen, Zhangyuan

    2010-11-22

    We introduce a novel architecture for next generation passive optical network (PON) base on the Single-carrier Frequency Division Multiple Address (SC-FDMA) technique. Both downstream and upstream SCFDMA-PON transmissions (5 Gb/s total, 2.5 Gb/s for each user) are experimentally demonstrated over 22.2 km standard single mode fiber and an additional simulated 1:32 optical splitter. We also test the tolerance range of the synchronization error and prove it matches the cyclic prefix period in our scheme, which means the packet transmission accuracy from different optical network units can be relaxed in the upstream.

  6. Medical history and the risk of multiple myeloma.

    PubMed Central

    Gramenzi, A.; Buttino, I.; D'Avanzo, B.; Negri, E.; Franceschi, S.; La Vecchia, C.

    1991-01-01

    The relationship between various diseases and immunisations and the risk of multiple myeloma was analysed using data from a hospital-based case-control study conducted in Northern Italy on 117 patients with multiple myeloma and 477 controls. Associations were observed for clinical history of scarlet fever (relative risk, RR = 2.0; 95% confidence interval, CI = 1.1-3.9), tuberculosis (RR = 2.3%; 95% CI = 0.9-5.7) and BCG immunisation (RR = 3.0; 95% CI = 1.4-6.4). The relative risk was 1.8 (95% CI = 0.9-3.5) for episodes of Herpes zoster infection, but most of the excess cases occurred within 10 years of diagnosis, suggesting that this might have been an early manifestation of the disease. No association emerged for common childhood viral infections or any other immunisation practice. When various classes of infectious or inflammatory diseases were grouped together according to their aetiology, there was a significant positive association with chronic bacterial illnesses (RR = 1.8; 95% CI = 1.1-2.8), and the relative risk estimates increased with the number of bacterial diseases. The trend in risk with number of diseases was significant (chi 21 = 4.5, P = 0.03). A negative association was found between allergic conditions and risk of multiple myeloma (RR = 0.6; 95% CI = 0.3-1.0). PMID:2039702

  7. Addressing Risk and Reluctance at the Nexus of HIV and Anal Cancer Screening.

    PubMed

    Ka'opua, Lana Sue I; Cassel, Kevin; Shiramizu, Bruce; Stotzer, Rebecca L; Robles, Andrew; Kapua, Cathy; Orton, Malulani; Milne, Cris; Sesepasara, Maddalynn

    2016-01-01

    Anal cancer disproportionately burdens persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) regardless of natal sex, sexual orientation, gender expression, and ethnic identity. Culturally competent communications are recommended to address health disparities, with sociocultural relevance ensured through constituent dialogic processes. Results are presented from six provider focus groups conducted to inform the promotion/education component of a Hawai'i-based project on anal cancer screening tools. Krueger's focus group methodology guided discussion queries. Verbatim transcripts of digitally recorded discussions were analyzed using grounded theory and PEN-3 procedures. Adherence to an audit trail ensured analytic rigor. Grounded theory analysis detected the overall theme of risk and reluctance to anal cancer screening, characterized by anal cancer not being "on the radar" of PLHIV, conflicting attributions of the anus and anal sex, fear of sex-shaming/-blaming, and other interrelated conceptual categories. PEN-3 analysis revealed strategies for destigmatizing anal cancer, through "real talk" (proactive, candid, nonjudgmental discussion) nested in a framework of sexual health and overall well-being, with additional tailoring for relevance to Native Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders, transgender persons, and other marginalized groups. Application of strategies for health practice are specific to the Hawai'i context, yet may offer considerations for developing strengths-based, culturally relevant screening promotion/education with diverse PLHIV in other locales.

  8. Addressing risk factors, screening, and preventative treatment for diabetic retinopathy in developing countries: a review.

    PubMed

    Lin, Stephanie; Ramulu, Pradeep; Lamoureux, Ecosse L; Sabanayagam, Charumathi

    2016-05-01

    The number of people with diabetic retinopathy (DR) has increased with the increasing prevalence of diabetes mellitus worldwide, especially in developing countries. In recent years, the successful implementation of public health programs in developed countries has been thought to contribute to decreases in blindness from DR. Developing countries, however, have not seen the same improvements, and their public health interventions still face significant challenges. In this review we describe the current state of public health approaches including risk factor control, screening and treatment techniques for DR in developing countries, and suggest recommendations. While the awareness of DR is variable, specific knowledge about DR is low, such that many patients have already experienced vision loss by the time they are screened. Attempts to improve rates of screening, in particular through non-mydriatic cameras and tele-screening, are ongoing and promising, although challenges include collaboration with healthcare systems and technology failures. Laser treatment is the most readily available, with anti-VEGF therapy and vitreo-retinal surgery increasingly sought after and provided. Recommendations include the use of 'targeted mydriasis' for fundus imaging to address high rates of ungradable images, increased communication with diabetes management services to improve patient retention and mobilization of access to DR treatments.

  9. Addressing Risk and Reluctance at the Nexus of HIV and Anal Cancer Screening

    PubMed Central

    Ka‘opua, Lana Sue I.; Cassel, Kevin; Shiramizu, Bruce; Stotzer, Rebecca L.; Robles, Andrew; Kapua, Cathy; Orton, Malulani; Milne, Cris; Sesepasara, Maddalynn

    2015-01-01

    Anal cancer disproportionately burdens persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) regardless of natal sex, sexual orientation, gender expression, and ethnic identity. Culturally competent communications are recommended to address health disparities, with sociocultural relevance ensured through constituent dialogic processes. Results are presented from six provider focus groups conducted to inform the promotion/education component of a Hawai‘i-based project on anal cancer screening tools. Krueger’s focus group methodology guided discussion queries. Verbatim transcripts of digitally recorded discussions were analyzed using grounded theory and PEN-3 procedures. Adherence to an audit trail ensured analytic rigor. Grounded theory analysis detected the overall theme of risk and reluctance to anal cancer screening, characterized by anal cancer not being “on the radar” of PLHIV, conflicting attributions of the anus and anal sex, fear of sex-shaming/-blaming, and other interrelated conceptual categories. PEN-3 analysis revealed strategies for destigmatizing anal cancer, through “real talk” (proactive, candid, nonjudgmental discussion) nested in a framework of sexual health and overall well-being, with additional tailoring for relevance to Native Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders, transgender persons, and other marginalized groups. Application of strategies for health practice are specific to the Hawai‘i context, yet may offer considerations for developing strengths-based, culturally relevant screening promotion/education with diverse PLHIV in other locales. PMID:26630979

  10. Safety nets can help address the risks to nutrition from increasing climate variability.

    PubMed

    Alderman, Harold

    2010-01-01

    Models of climate change predict increased variability of weather as well as changes in agro-ecology. The increased variability will pose special challenges for nutrition. This study reviews evidence on climate shocks and nutrition and estimates the economic consequences in terms of reduced schooling and economic productivity stemming from nutritional insults in childhood. Panel data covering up to 20 y indicate that that short-term climate shocks have long-term impacts on children that persist, often into their adult lives. Other studies document the potential for relief programs to offset these shocks providing that the programs can be implemented with flexible financing, rapid identification of those affected by the shock, and timely scale-up. The last of these presumes that programs are already in place with contingency plans drawn up. Arguably, direct food distribution, including that of ready-to-use therapeutic food, may be part of the overall strategy. Even if such programs are too expensive for sustainable widespread use in the prevention of malnutrition, scalable food distribution programs may be cost effective to address the heightened risk of malnutrition following weather-related shocks.

  11. STakeholder-Objective Risk Model (STORM): Determining the aggregated risk of multiple contaminant hazards in groundwater well catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Enzenhoefer, R.; Binning, P. J.; Nowak, W.

    2015-09-01

    Risk is often defined as the product of probability, vulnerability and value. Drinking water supply from groundwater abstraction is often at risk due to multiple hazardous land use activities in the well catchment. Each hazard might or might not introduce contaminants into the subsurface at any point in time, which then affects the pumped quality upon transport through the aquifer. In such situations, estimating the overall risk is not trivial, and three key questions emerge: (1) How to aggregate the impacts from different contaminants and spill locations to an overall, cumulative impact on the value at risk? (2) How to properly account for the stochastic nature of spill events when converting the aggregated impact to a risk estimate? (3) How will the overall risk and subsequent decision making depend on stakeholder objectives, where stakeholder objectives refer to the values at risk, risk attitudes and risk metrics that can vary between stakeholders. In this study, we provide a STakeholder-Objective Risk Model (STORM) for assessing the total aggregated risk. Or concept is a quantitative, probabilistic and modular framework for simulation-based risk estimation. It rests on the source-pathway-receptor concept, mass-discharge-based aggregation of stochastically occuring spill events, accounts for uncertainties in the involved flow and transport models through Monte Carlo simulation, and can address different stakeholder objectives. We illustrate the application of STORM in a numerical test case inspired by a German drinking water catchment. As one may expect, the results depend strongly on the chosen stakeholder objectives, but they are equally sensitive to different approaches for risk aggregation across different hazards, contaminant types, and over time.

  12. Multiple Changes to Reusable Solid Rocket Motors, Identifying Hidden Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greenhalgh, Phillip O.; McCann, Bradley Q.

    2003-01-01

    The Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) baseline is subject to various changes. Changes are necessary due to safety and quality improvements, environmental considerations, vendor changes, obsolescence issues, etc. The RSRM program has a goal to test changes on full-scale static test motors prior to flight due to the unique RSRM operating environment. Each static test motor incorporates several significant changes and numerous minor changes. Flight motors often implement multiple changes simultaneously. While each change is individually verified and assessed, the potential for changes to interact constitutes additional hidden risk. Mitigating this risk depends upon identification of potential interactions. Therefore, the ATK Thiokol Propulsion System Safety organization initiated the use of a risk interaction matrix to identify potential interactions that compound risk. Identifying risk interactions supports flight and test motor decisions. Uncovering hidden risks of a full-scale static test motor gives a broader perspective of the changes being tested. This broader perspective compels the program to focus on solutions for implementing RSRM changes with minimal/mitigated risk. This paper discusses use of a change risk interaction matrix to identify test challenges and uncover hidden risks to the RSRM program.

  13. A review of multiple natural hazard risks in Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Bubeck, Philip; Parolai, Stefano; Khazai, Bijan; Daniell, James; Kunz, Michael; Mahlke, Holger; Lakes, Tobia

    2013-04-01

    Germany is experiencing various natural hazards and their impacts are expected to increase due to socio-economic and climatic changes, if an efficient risk management is not able to counteract. The international disaster database EM-DAT lists 79 events, namely earthquakes (3), extreme temperatures (9), floods (18), wet mass movement (1), storms (47) and wildfire (1) between 1950 and 2011; all together causing more than 10.000 fatalities and more than 40 billion US damage in Germany. The event with the highest human loss was the heat wave of 2003 with more than 9.000 fatalities. The event with the highest economic damage was the flood in 2002 causing €11.600 million damage. The aim of this paper is to offer a new perspective on multiple risk assessments in Germany by giving a systematic and comprehensive review on existing hazards and risk management strategies. Such a multiple risk assessment is particularly important because the potential for a natural event to cause a disaster depends on how vulnerable an exposed community is to such hazards. Human actions can reduce the damage to people and property but can at the same time increase the exposure to risks and exacerbate the impacts of hazardous events. To significantly improve risk management, i.e. decrease vulnerability and increase resilience of a region, more effort is needed than the well-established hazard-specific risk assessments. Planners and decision-makers need to be aware of and informed about all pertinent hazards in a region. Thus, to compare different hazards and to evaluate changes in risk, we propose the need of a consistent multi risk assessment.

  14. Report: Lack of Final Guidance on Vapor Intrusion Impedes Efforts to Address Indoor Air Risks

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Report #10-P-0042, December 14, 2009. EPA’s efforts to protect human health at sites where vapor intrusion risks may occur have been impeded by the lack of final Agency guidance on vapor intrusion risks.

  15. Addressing risk in the design of new healthcare services: a step-by-step methodology.

    PubMed

    Remus, Beth

    2008-01-01

    New service design can be done effectively through enterprise risk management (ERM) by identifying the clinical and administrative risks within the new service design. This article proposes a 10-step process describing the business team's tasks and integrating risk management, quality management and patient safety concepts.

  16. Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

    PubMed Central

    Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

    2016-01-01

    Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic. PMID:27782171

  17. Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

    2016-10-01

    Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

  18. Traceability and Risk Analysis Strategies for Addressing Counterfeit Electronics in Supply Chains for Complex Systems.

    PubMed

    DiMase, Daniel; Collier, Zachary A; Carlson, Jinae; Gray, Robin B; Linkov, Igor

    2016-10-01

    Within the microelectronics industry, there is a growing concern regarding the introduction of counterfeit electronic parts into the supply chain. Even though this problem is widespread, there have been limited attempts to implement risk-based approaches for testing and supply chain management. Supply chain risk management tends to focus on the highly visible disruptions of the supply chain instead of the covert entrance of counterfeits; thus counterfeit risk is difficult to mitigate. This article provides an overview of the complexities of the electronics supply chain, and highlights some gaps in risk assessment practices. In particular, this article calls for enhanced traceability capabilities to track and trace parts at risk through various stages of the supply chain. Placing the focus on risk-informed decision making through the following strategies is needed, including prioritization of high-risk parts, moving beyond certificates of conformance, incentivizing best supply chain management practices, adoption of industry standards, and design and management for supply chain resilience.

  19. Modular risk analysis for assessing multiple waste sites

    SciTech Connect

    Whelan, G.; Buck, J.W.; Nazarali, A.

    1994-06-01

    Human-health impacts, especially to the surrounding public, are extremely difficult to assess at installations that contain multiple waste sites and a variety of mixed-waste constituents (e.g., organic, inorganic, and radioactive). These assessments must address different constituents, multiple waste sites, multiple release patterns, different transport pathways (i.e., groundwater, surface water, air, and overland soil), different receptor types and locations, various times of interest, population distributions, land-use patterns, baseline assessments, a variety of exposure scenarios, etc. Although the process is complex, two of the most important difficulties to overcome are associated with (1) establishing an approach that allows for modifying the source term, transport, or exposure component as an individual module without having to re-evaluate the entire installation-wide assessment (i.e., all modules simultaneously), and (2) displaying and communicating the results in an understandable and useable maimer to interested parties. An integrated, physics-based, compartmentalized approach, which is coupled to a Geographical Information System (GIS), captures the regional health impacts associated with multiple waste sites (e.g., hundreds to thousands of waste sites) at locations within and surrounding the installation. Utilizing a modular/GIS-based approach overcomes difficulties in (1) analyzing a wide variety of scenarios for multiple waste sites, and (2) communicating results from a complex human-health-impact analysis by capturing the essence of the assessment in a relatively elegant manner, so the meaning of the results can be quickly conveyed to all who review them.

  20. ISSUES THAT MUST BE ADDRESSED FOR RISK ASSESSMENT OF MIXED EXPOSURES: THE EPA EXPERIENCE WITH AIR QUALITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Issues that Must be Addressed for Risk Assessment of Mixed Exposures: The EPA Experience with Air Quality

    Daniel L. Costa, Sc.D.

    Abstract
    Humans are routinely exposed to a complex mixture of air pollutants in both their outdoor and indoor environments. The wide...

  1. Identifying risk factors for healthcare-associated infections from electronic medical record home address data

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Residential address is a common element in patient electronic medical records. Guidelines from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention specify that residence in a nursing home, skilled nursing facility, or hospice within a year prior to a positive culture date is among the criteria for differentiating healthcare-acquired from community-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections. Residential addresses may be useful for identifying patients residing in healthcare-associated settings, but methods for categorizing residence type based on electronic medical records have not been widely documented. The aim of this study was to develop a process to assist in differentiating healthcare-associated from community-associated MRSA infections by analyzing patient addresses to determine if residence reported at the time of positive culture was associated with a healthcare facility or other institutional location. Results We identified 1,232 of the patients (8.24% of the sample) with positive cultures as probable cases of healthcare-associated MRSA based on residential addresses contained in electronic medical records. Combining manual review with linking to institutional address databases improved geocoding rates from 11,870 records (79.37%) to 12,549 records (83.91%). Standardization of patient home address through geocoding increased the number of matches to institutional facilities from 545 (3.64%) to 1,379 (9.22%). Conclusions Linking patient home address data from electronic medical records to institutional residential databases provides useful information for epidemiologic researchers, infection control practitioners, and clinicians. This information, coupled with other clinical and laboratory data, can be used to inform differentiation of healthcare-acquired from community-acquired infections. The process presented should be extensible with little or no added data costs. PMID:20849635

  2. Building Successful Programs to Address Chemical Risks in Schools: A Workbook with Templates, Tips, and Techniques

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    US Environmental Protection Agency, 2008

    2008-01-01

    Outdated, unknown, or unneeded amounts of dangerous or inappropriate chemicals are often found in K-12 schools across the nation, potentially putting students and staff at risk. Because of the nature of some of the chemicals, even small amounts may present a risk. Thus, dangerous chemicals represent one of the critical environmental health and…

  3. Analyzing multiple endpoints in a confirmatory randomized clinical trial-an approach that addresses stratification, missing values, baseline imbalance and multiplicity for strictly ordinal outcomes.

    PubMed

    Sun, Hengrui; Kawaguchi, Atsushi; Koch, Gary

    2017-03-01

    Confirmatory randomized clinical trials with a stratified design may have ordinal response outcomes, ie, either ordered categories or continuous determinations that are not compatible with an interval scale. Also, multiple endpoints are often collected when 1 single endpoint does not represent the overall efficacy of the treatment. In addition, random baseline imbalances and missing values can add another layer of difficulty in the analysis plan. Therefore, the development of an approach that provides a consolidated strategy to all issues collectively is essential. For a real case example that is from a clinical trial comparing a test treatment and a control for the pain management for patients with osteoarthritis, which has all aforementioned issues, multivariate Mann-Whitney estimators with stratification adjustment are applicable to the strictly ordinal responses with stratified design. Randomization based nonparametric analysis of covariance is applied to account for the possible baseline imbalances. Several approaches that handle missing values are provided. A global test followed by a closed testing procedure controls the family wise error rate in the strong sense for the analysis of multiple endpoints. Four outcomes indicating joint pain, stiffness, and functional status were analyzed collectively and also individually through the procedures. Treatment efficacy was observed in the combined endpoint as well as in the individual endpoints. The proposed approach is effective in addressing the aforementioned problems simultaneously and straightforward to implement.

  4. Averting the perfect storm: addressing youth substance use risk from social media use.

    PubMed

    Salimian, Parissa K; Chunara, Rumi; Weitzman, Elissa R

    2014-10-01

    Adolescents are developmentally sensitive to pathways that influence alcohol and other drug (AOD) use. In the absence of guidance, their routine engagement with social media may add a further layer of risk. There are several potential mechanisms for social media use to influence AOD risk, including exposure to peer portrayals of AOD use, socially amplified advertising, misinformation, and predatory marketing against a backdrop of lax regulatory systems and privacy controls. Here the authors summarize the influences of the social media world and suggest how pediatricians in everyday practice can alert youth and their parents to these risks to foster conversation, awareness, and harm reduction.

  5. Cancer risks in naval divers with multiple exposures to carcinogens.

    PubMed Central

    Richter, Elihu D; Friedman, Lee S; Tamir, Yuval; Berman, Tamar; Levy, Or; Westin, Jerome B; Peretz, Tamar

    2003-01-01

    We investigated risks for cancer and the case for a cause-effect relationship in five successive cohorts of naval commando divers (n = 682) with prolonged underwater exposures (skin, gastrointestinal tract, and airways) to many toxic compounds in the Kishon River, Israel's most polluted waterway, from 1948 to 1995. Releases of industrial, ship, and agricultural effluents in the river increased substantially, fish yields decreased, and toxic damage to marine organisms increased. Among the divers (16,343 person-years follow-up from 18 years of age to year 2000), the observed/expected ratio for all tumors was 2.29 (p<0.01). Risks increased in cohorts first diving after 1960 compared to risks in earlier cohorts, notably for hematolymphopoietic, central nervous system, gastrointestinal, and skin cancer; induction periods were often brief. The findings suggest that the increases in risk for cancer and short induction periods resulted from direct contact with and absorption of multiple toxic compounds. Early toxic effects in marine life predicted later risks for cancer in divers. PMID:12676624

  6. Towards a common oil spill risk assessment framework – Adapting ISO 31000 and addressing uncertainties.

    PubMed

    Sepp Neves, Antonio Augusto; Pinardi, Nadia; Martins, Flavio; Janeiro, Joao; Samaras, Achilleas; Zodiatis, George; De Dominicis, Michela

    2015-08-15

    Oil spills are a transnational problem, and establishing a common standard methodology for Oil Spill Risk Assessments (OSRAs) is thus paramount in order to protect marine environments and coastal communities. In this study we firstly identified the strengths and weaknesses of the OSRAs carried out in various parts of the globe. We then searched for a generic and recognized standard, i.e. ISO 31000, in order to design a method to perform OSRAs in a scientific and standard way. The new framework was tested for the Lebanon oil spill that occurred in 2006 employing ensemble oil spill modeling to quantify the risks and uncertainties due to unknown spill characteristics. The application of the framework generated valuable visual instruments for the transparent communication of the risks, replacing the use of risk tolerance levels, and thus highlighting the priority areas to protect in case of an oil spill.

  7. Intent, Capability and Opportunity: A Holistic Approach to Addressing Proliferation as a Risk Management Issue

    SciTech Connect

    Amanda Rynes; Trond Bjornard

    2011-07-01

    Currently, proliferation risk assessment models are designed to evaluate only a portion of the overall risk, focusing exclusively on either technological or social factors to determine the extent of a threat. Many of these models are intended to act as a means of predicting proliferation potential rather than assessing the system as a whole, ignoring the ability to enhance mitigating factors and manage, rather just establish the presence of, the threat. While the information garnered through these forms of analysis is necessary, it remains incomplete. By incorporating political, social, economic and technical capabilities as well as human factors such as intent into a single, multi-faceted risk management model, proliferation risk can be evaluated more effectively. Framing this information around how to improve and expand the Regime already in place and establishing where there are gaps in the system allows for a more complete approach to risk management, mitigation and resource allocation. The research conducted here seeks to combine all three elements (intent, capability and opportunity) in a comprehensive evaluation which incorporates an assessment of state-level variables, possible proliferation pathways and technical capability. Each portion of the analysis is carried out independently then combined to illustrate the full scope of a State's nuclear infrastructure while showing areas of weakness in the institutional framework.

  8. Addressing career barriers for high risk adolescent girls: the PATHS curriculum intervention.

    PubMed

    Doren, Bonnie; Lombardi, Allison R; Clark, Julie; Lindstrom, Lauren

    2013-12-01

    The study evaluated a gender-specific comprehensive career development curriculum designed to target career barriers faced by high risk adolescent girls - those with disabilities and at risk for school failure. The goal of the curriculum was to promote social cognitive career and self determination outcomes associated with adaptive career development and adjustment. A pre-post control group design was used to evaluate the curriculum. Findings suggest that participation in the curriculum resulted in significant and large gains in autonomy and in disability and gender-related knowledge. Meaningful gains were noted in perceptions of social support and relevance of school. Participants in a high fidelity sample made significant and large gains in vocational skills self-efficacy and disability and gender-related knowledge. Meaningful improvements were noted in self-advocacy, autonomy, and vocational outcome expectations. The findings suggest that the curriculum can improve important indicators of positive career development and adjustment in high risk adolescent girls.

  9. Event-Specific Prevention: Addressing College Student Drinking During Known Windows of Risk

    PubMed Central

    Neighbors, Clayton; Walters, Scott T.; Lee, Christine M.; Vader, Amanda M.; Vehige, Tamara; Szigethy, Thomas; DeJong, William

    2007-01-01

    The unique drinking patterns of college students call for Event-Specific Prevention (ESP) strategies that address college student drinking associated with peak times and events. Despite limited research evaluating ESP, many college campuses are currently implementing programming for specific events. The present paper provides a review of existing literature related to ESP and offers practical guidance for research and practice. The prevention typology proposed by DeJong and Langford (2002) provides a framework for strategic planning, suggesting that programs and policies should address problems at the individual, group, institution, community, state, and society level, and that these interventions should focus on knowledge change, environmental change, health protection, and intervention and treatment services. From this typology, specific examples are provided for comprehensive program planning related to orientation/beginning of school year, homecoming, 21st birthday celebrations, spring break, and graduation. In addition, the University of Connecticut’s efforts to address problems resulting from its annual Spring Weekend are described as an illustration of how advance planning by campus and community partners can produce a successful ESP effort. PMID:17616260

  10. Epilepsy and multiple sclerosis: Increased risk among progressive forms.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Juárez, Iris E; López-Meza, Elmer; González-Aragón, Maria del Carmen Fernández; Ramírez-Bermúdez, Jesús; Corona, Teresa

    2009-04-01

    Multiple sclerosis (MS) patients are at higher risk for epilepsy. Epilepsy was frequent among our MS patients (6.55%). Progressive MS forms were associated with higher incidence of epilepsy (p=0.021). Partial motor seizures were observed in five patients (62.5%) and generalized tonic-clonic in three (37.5%). Electroencephalogram (EEG) revealed epileptic activity in 62.5%. A high percentage of MS patients with epilepsy (37.5%) reported intoxication as the most severe form of adverse effect of antiepileptic therapy.

  11. Suicide Risk Protocols: Addressing the Needs of High Risk Youths Identified through Suicide Prevention Efforts and in Clinical Settings

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heilbron, Nicole; Goldston, David; Walrath, Christine; Rodi, Michael; McKeon, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Several agencies have emphasized the importance of establishing clear protocols or procedures to address the needs of youths who are identified as suicidal through suicide prevention programs or in emergency department settings. What constitutes optimal guidelines for developing and implementing such protocols, however, is unclear. At the request…

  12. Multiple pesticide exposures and the risk of multiple myeloma in Canadian men.

    PubMed

    Kachuri, Linda; Demers, Paul A; Blair, Aaron; Spinelli, John J; Pahwa, Manisha; McLaughlin, John R; Pahwa, Punam; Dosman, James A; Harris, Shelley A

    2013-10-15

    Multiple myeloma (MM) has been linked to certain agricultural exposures, including pesticides. This analysis aimed to investigate the association between lifetime use of multiple pesticides and MM risk using two exposure metrics: number of pesticides used and days per year of pesticide use. A frequency-matched, population-based case-control study was conducted among men in six Canadian provinces between 1991 and 1994. Data from 342 MM cases and 1,357 controls were analyzed using logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals. Pesticides were grouped by type, chemical class and carcinogenic potential, using a composite carcinogenic probability score. Selected individual pesticides were also examined. Regression models were adjusted for age, province of residence, use of proxy respondents, smoking and selected medical history variables. The overall pattern of results was complex. Positive trends in risk were observed for fungicides (ptrend=0.04) and pesticides classified as probably carcinogenic or higher (ptrend=0.03). Excess risks of MM were observed among men who reported using at least one carbamate pesticide (OR=1.94, 1.16-3.25), one phenoxy herbicide (OR=1.56, 1.09-2.25) and ≥3 organochlorines (OR=2.21, 1.05-4.66). Significantly higher odds of MM were seen for exposure to carbaryl (OR=2.71, 1.47-5.00) and captan (OR=2.96, 1.40-6.24). Use of mecoprop for >2 days per year was also significantly associated with MM (OR=2.15, 1.03-4.48). Focusing on multiple pesticide exposures is important because this more accurately reflects how exposures occur in occupational settings. Significant associations observed for certain chemical classes and individual pesticides suggest that these may be MM risk factors.

  13. Advising Financially At-Risk Students: Detecting and Addressing Premature Affluence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shaffer, Leigh S.

    2014-01-01

    Academic advisors likely will encounter financially at-risk (FAR) students who jeopardize their chances of completing a college education and compromise their economic futures by accruing burdensome debt. Students may use loans and credit cards to pay for the necessities of a college education, but many also generate personal debt by financing…

  14. Evaluating Health Risks from Inhaled Polychlorinated Biphenyls: Research Needs for Addressing Uncertainty

    EPA Science Inventory

    Indoor air polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentrations in some U.S. schools are one or more orders of magnitude higher than background levels. In response to this, efforts have been made to assess the potential health risk posed by inhaled PCBs. These efforts are hindered by un...

  15. NEW TECHNOLOGIES TO SOLVE OLD PROBLEMS AND ADDRESS ISSUES IN RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Appropriate utilization of data is an ongoing concern of the regulated industries and the agencies charged with assessing safety or risk. An area of current interest is the possibility that toxicogenomics will enhance our ability to develop higher or high-throughput models for pr...

  16. Addressing Beacon re-identification attacks: quantification and mitigation of privacy risks.

    PubMed

    Raisaro, Jean Louis; Tramèr, Florian; Ji, Zhanglong; Bu, Diyue; Zhao, Yongan; Carey, Knox; Lloyd, David; Sofia, Heidi; Baker, Dixie; Flicek, Paul; Shringarpure, Suyash; Bustamante, Carlos; Wang, Shuang; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Tang, Haixu; Wang, XiaoFeng; Hubaux, Jean-Pierre

    2017-02-20

    The Global Alliance for Genomics and Health (GA4GH) created the Beacon Project as a means of testing the willingness of data holders to share genetic data in the simplest technical context-a query for the presence of a specified nucleotide at a given position within a chromosome. Each participating site (or "beacon") is responsible for assuring that genomic data are exposed through the Beacon service only with the permission of the individual to whom the data pertains and in accordance with the GA4GH policy and standards.While recognizing the inference risks associated with large-scale data aggregation, and the fact that some beacons contain sensitive phenotypic associations that increase privacy risk, the GA4GH adjudged the risk of re-identification based on the binary yes/no allele-presence query responses as acceptable. However, recent work demonstrated that, given a beacon with specific characteristics (including relatively small sample size and an adversary who possesses an individual's whole genome sequence), the individual's membership in a beacon can be inferred through repeated queries for variants present in the individual's genome.In this paper, we propose three practical strategies for reducing re-identification risks in beacons. The first two strategies manipulate the beacon such that the presence of rare alleles is obscured; the third strategy budgets the number of accesses per user for each individual genome. Using a beacon containing data from the 1000 Genomes Project, we demonstrate that the proposed strategies can effectively reduce re-identification risk in beacon-like datasets.

  17. Interventions to Address Medical Conditions and Health-Risk Behaviors Among Persons With Serious Mental Illness: A Comprehensive Review

    PubMed Central

    McGinty, Emma E.; Baller, Julia; Azrin, Susan T.; Juliano-Bult, Denise; Daumit, Gail L.

    2016-01-01

    People with serious mental illness (SMI) have mortality rates 2 to 3 times higher than the overall US population, largely due to cardiovascular disease. The prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors such as obesity and diabetes mellitus and other conditions, such as HIV/AIDS, is heightened in this group. Based on the recommendations of a National Institute of Mental Health stakeholder meeting, we conducted a comprehensive review examining the strength of the evidence surrounding interventions to address major medical conditions and health-risk behaviors among persons with SMI. Peer-reviewed studies were identified using 4 major research databases. Randomized controlled trials and observational studies testing interventions to address medical conditions and risk behaviors among persons with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder between January 2000 and June 2014 were included. Information was abstracted from each study by 2 trained reviewers, who also rated study quality using a standard tool. Following individual study review, the quality of the evidence (high, medium, low) and the effectiveness of various interventions were synthesized. 108 studies were included. The majority of studies examined interventions to address overweight/obesity (n = 80). The strength of the evidence was high for 4 interventions: metformin and behavioral interventions had beneficial effects on weight loss; and bupropion and varenicline reduced tobacco smoking. The strength of the evidence was low for most other interventions reviewed. Future studies should test long-term interventions to cardiovascular risk factors and health-risk behaviors. In addition, future research should study implementation strategies to effectively translate efficacious interventions into real-world settings. PMID:26221050

  18. Multiple metabolic risk factors and mammographic breast density

    PubMed Central

    Tehranifar, Parisa; Reynolds, Diane; Fan, Xiaozhou; Boden-Albala, Bernadette; Engmann, Natalie J.; Flom, Julie D.; Terry, Mary Beth

    2014-01-01

    Purpose We examined whether obesity and a history of diabetes, hypertension, and elevated cholesterol, individually and in combination, are associated with breast density, a strong risk factor for breast cancer. Methods We measured percent density and dense area using a computer-assisted method (n=191; age range=40-61 years). We used linear regression models to examine the associations of each metabolic condition and the number of metabolic conditions (0, 1, 2, and 3 or 4 conditions) with breast density. Results Among individual metabolic conditions, only high blood cholesterol was inversely associated with percent density (β=-5.4, 95% CI: -8.5, -2.2) and dense area (β= -6.7, 95% CI=-11.1, -2.4). Having multiple metabolic conditions was also associated with lower breast density, with 2 conditions and 3 or 4 conditions vs. 0 conditions associated with 6.4% (95% CI:-11.2, -1.6) and 7.4% (95% CI:-12.9, -1.9) reduction in percent density and with 6.5 cm2 (95% CI: -13.1, -0.1) and 9.5 cm2 (95% CI: -17.1, -1.9) smaller dense area. Conclusions A history of high blood cholesterol and multiple metabolic conditions were associated with lower relative and absolute measures of breast density. The positive association between metabolic abnormalities and breast cancer risk may be driven by pathways unrelated to mammographic breast density. PMID:24698111

  19. Regular analgesic use and risk of multiple myeloma.

    PubMed

    Moysich, Kirsten B; Bonner, Mathew R; Beehler, Gregory P; Marshall, James R; Menezes, Ravi J; Baker, Julie A; Weiss, Joli R; Chanan-Khan, Asher

    2007-04-01

    Analgesic use has been implicated in the chemoprevention of a number of solid tumors, but to date no previous research has focused on the role of analgesics in the etiology of multiple myeloma (MM). We conducted a hospital-based case-control study of 117 patients with primary, incident MM and 483 age and residence matched controls without benign or malignant neoplasms. All participants received medical services at Roswell Park Cancer Institute in Buffalo, NY, and completed a comprehensive epidemiological questionnaire. Participants who reported analgesic use at least once a week for at least 6 months were classified as regular users; individuals who did not use analgesics regularly served as the reference group throughout the analyses. We used unconditional logistic regression analyses to compute crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Compared to non-users, regular aspirin users were not at reduced risk of MM (adjusted OR=0.99; 95% CI 0.65-1.49), nor were participants with the highest frequency or duration of aspirin use. A significant risk elevation was found for participants who were regular acetaminophen users (adjusted OR=2.95; 95% CI 1.72-5.08). Further, marked increases in risk of MM were noted with both greater frequency (>7 tablets weekly; adjusted OR=4.36; 95% CI 1.70-11.2) and greater duration (>10 years; adjusted OR=3.26; 95% CI 1.52-7.02) of acetaminophen use. We observed no evidence of a chemoprotective effect of aspirin on MM risk, but observed significant risk elevations with various measures of acetaminophen use. Our results warrant further investigation in population-based case-control and cohort studies and should be interpreted with caution in light of the limited sample size and biases inherent in hospital-based studies.

  20. Is food allergen analysis flawed? Health and supply chain risks and a proposed framework to address urgent analytical needs.

    PubMed

    Walker, M J; Burns, D T; Elliott, C T; Gowland, M H; Mills, E N Clare

    2016-01-07

    Food allergy is an increasing problem for those affected, their families or carers, the food industry and for regulators. The food supply chain is highly vulnerable to fraud involving food allergens, risking fatalities and severe reputational damage to the food industry. Many facets are being pursued to ameliorate the difficulties including better food labelling and the concept of thresholds of elicitation of allergy symptoms as risk management tools. These efforts depend to a high degree on the ability reliably to detect and quantify food allergens; yet all current analytical approaches exhibit severe deficiencies that jeopardise accurate results being produced particularly in terms of the risks of false positive and false negative reporting. If we fail to realise the promise of current risk assessment and risk management of food allergens through lack of the ability to measure food allergens reproducibly and with traceability to an international unit of measurement, the analytical community will have failed a significant societal challenge. Three distinct but interrelated areas of analytical work are urgently needed to address the substantial gaps identified: (a) a coordinated international programme for the production of properly characterised clinically relevant reference materials and calibrants for food allergen analysis; (b) an international programme to widen the scope of proteomics and genomics bioinformatics for the genera containing the major allergens to address problems in ELISA, MS and DNA methods; (c) the initiation of a coordinated international programme leading to reference methods for allergen proteins that provide results traceable to the SI. This article describes in more detail food allergy, the risks of inapplicable or flawed allergen analyses with examples and a proposed framework, including clinically relevant incurred allergen concentrations, to address the currently unmet and urgently required analytical requirements. Support for the

  1. Risk of vertebral compression fractures in multiple myeloma patients

    PubMed Central

    Anitha, D.; Thomas, Baum; Jan, Kirschke S.; Subburaj, Karupppasamy

    2017-01-01

    Abstract The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a finite element (FE) model to predict vertebral bone strength in vitro using multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) images in multiple myeloma (MM) patients, to serve as a complementing tool to assess fracture risk. In addition, it also aims to differentiate MM patients with and without vertebral compression fractures (VCFs) by performing FE analysis on vertebra segments (T1–L5) obtained from in vivo routine MDCT imaging scans. MDCT-based FE models were developed from the in vitro vertebrae samples and were then applied to the in vivo vertebrae segments of MM patients (n = 4) after validation. Predicted fracture load using FE models correlated significantly with experimentally measured failure load (r = 0.85, P < 0.001). Interestingly, an erratic behavior was observed in patients with fractures (n = 2) and a more gradual change in FE-predicted strength values in patients without fractures (n = 2). Severe geometric deformations were also observed in models that have already attained fractures. Since BMD is not a reliable parameter for fracture risk prediction in MM subjects, it is necessary to use advanced tools such as FE analysis to predict individual fracture risk. If peaks are observed between adjacent segments in an MM patient, it can be safe to conclude that the spine is experiencing regions of structural instability. Such an FE visualization may have therapeutic consequences to prevent MM associated vertebral fractures. PMID:28079810

  2. Safety concerns and risk management of multiple sclerosis therapies.

    PubMed

    Soelberg Sorensen, P

    2016-11-27

    Currently, more than ten drugs have been approved for treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS). Newer treatments may be more effective, but have less favorable safety record. Interferon-β preparations and glatiramer acetate treatment require frequent subcutaneous or intramuscular injections and are only moderately effective, but have very rarely life-threatening adverse effects, whereas teriflunomide and dimethyl fumarate are administered orally and have equal or better efficacy, but have more potentially severe adverse effects. The highly effective therapies fingolimod, natalizumab, daclizumab, and alemtuzumab have more serious adverse effects, some of which may be life-threatening. The choice between drugs should be based on a benefit-risk evaluation and tailored to the individual patient's requirements in a dialogue between the patient and treating neurologist. Patients with average disease activity can choose between dimethyl fumarate and teriflunomide or the "old injectable." Patients with very active MS may choose a more effective drug as the initial treatment. In case of side effects on one drug, switch to another drug can be tried. Suboptimal effect of the first drug indicates escalation to a highly efficacious drug. A favorable benefit-risk balance can be maintained by appropriate patient selection and appropriate risk management on therapy. New treatments will within the coming 1-2 years change our current treatment algorithm for relapsing-remitting MS.

  3. Model or Myopia? Exploiting Water Markets to Address Population and Drought Risks in a Changing World

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reed, P. M.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change, population demands, and evolving land-use represent strong risks to the sustainable development and stability of world-wide urban water supplies. There is a growing consensus that non-structural supply management instruments such as water markets have significant potential to reduce the risks and vulnerabilities in complex urban water systems. This paper asks a common question, what are the tradeoffs for a city using water market supply instruments?. This question emerges quickly in policy and management, but its answer is deceptively difficult to attain using traditional planning tools and management frameworks. This research demonstrates new frameworks that facilitate rapid evaluation of hypotheses on the reliability, resiliency, adaptability, and cost-effectiveness of urban water supply systems. This study considers a broader exploration of the issues of "nonstationarity" and "uncertainty" in urban water planning. As we invest in new information and prediction frameworks for the coupled human-natural systems that define our water, our problem definitions (i.e., objectives, constraints, preferences, and hypotheses) themselves evolve. From a formal mathematical perspective, this means that our management problems are structurally uncertain and nonstationary (i.e., the definition of optimality changes across regions, times, and stakeholders). This uncertainty and nonstationarity in our problem definitions needs to be more explicitly acknowledged in adaptive management and integrated water resources management. This study demonstrates the potential benefits of exploring these issues in the context of a city in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) of Texas, USA determining how to use its regional water market to manage population and drought risks.

  4. Procedures for addressing uncertainty and variability in exposure to characterize potential health risk from trichloroethylene contaminated ground water at Beale Air Force Base in California

    SciTech Connect

    Daniels, J I; Bogen, K T; Hall, L C

    1999-10-05

    Conservative deterministic, screening-level calculations of exposure and risk commonly are used in quantitative assessments of potential human-health consequences from contaminants in environmental media. However, these calculations generally are based on multiple upper-bound point estimates of input parameters, particularly for exposure attributes, and can therefore produce results for decision makers that actually overstate the need for costly remediation. Alternatively, a more informative and quantitative characterization of health risk can be obtained by quantifying uncertainty and variability in exposure. This process is illustrated in this report for a hypothetical population at a specific site at Beale Air Force Base in California, where there is trichloroethylene (TCE) contaminated ground water and a potential for future residential use. When uncertainty and variability in exposure were addressed jointly for this case, the 95th-percentile upper-bound value of individual excess lifetime cancer risk was a factor approaching 10 lower than the most conservative deterministic estimate. Additionally, the probability of more than zero additional cases of cancer can be estimated, and in this case it is less than 0.5 for a hypothetical future residential population of up to 26,900 individuals present for any 7.6-y interval of a 70-y time period. Clearly, the results from application of this probabilistic approach can provide reasonable and equitable risk-acceptability criteria for a contaminated site.

  5. Genetic insights into age-related macular degeneration: controversies addressing risk, causality, and therapeutics.

    PubMed

    Gorin, Michael B

    2012-08-01

    Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a common condition among the elderly population that leads to the progressive central vision loss and serious compromise of quality of life for its sufferers. It is also one of the few disorders for whom the investigation of its genetics has yielded rich insights into its diversity and causality and holds the promise of enabling clinicians to provide better risk assessments for individuals as well as to develop and selectively deploy new therapeutics to either prevent or slow the development of disease and lessen the threat of vision loss. The genetics of AMD began initially with the appreciation of familial aggregation and increase risk and expanded with the initial association of APOE variants with the disease. The first major breakthroughs came with family-based linkage studies of affected (and discordant) sibs, which identified a number of genetic loci and led to the targeted search of the 1q31 and 10q26 loci for associated variants. Three of the initial four reports for the CFH variant, Y402H, were based on regional candidate searches, as were the two initial reports of the ARMS2/HTRA1 locus variants. Case-control association studies initially also played a role in discovering the major genetic variants for AMD, and the success of those early studies have been used to fuel enthusiasm for the methodology for a number of diseases. Until 2010, all of the subsequent genetic variants associated with AMD came from candidate gene testing based on the complement factor pathway. In 2010, several large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS) identified genes that had not been previously identified. Much of this historical information is available in a number of recent reviews (Chen et al., 2010b; Deangelis et al., 2011; Fafowora and Gorin, 2012b; Francis and Klein, 2011; Kokotas et al., 2011). Large meta analysis of AMD GWAS has added new loci and variants to this collection (Chen et al., 2010a; Kopplin et al., 2010; Yu et

  6. Addressing the Health Needs of High-Risk Filipino Americans in the Greater Philadelphia Region.

    PubMed

    Bhimla, Aisha; Yap, Lauren; Lee, Minsun; Seals, Brenda; Aczon, Hermie; Ma, Grace X

    2017-04-01

    Filipino Americans represent one of the largest and most diverse immigrant populations in the United States. It has been established that chronic diseases are a significant public health issue affecting this population. We conducted a health needs assessment of 200 Filipino Americans aged 18 years or older residing in the greater Philadelphia region. Study participants were recruited from eight Filipino community-based organizations in the region. Information about demographic and acculturative characteristics, health behaviors, self-reported chronic health conditions, and chronic disease perception were collected. Participants were older and highly acculturated. With regards to health behaviors, several did not meet dietary fruit and vegetables intake and physical activity guidelines. The top five health conditions were high blood pressure (67.5 %), high blood cholesterol (57.1 %), arthritis (28.9 %), diabetes (21.8 %), and cancer (14.7 %). Majority of participants perceived high blood pressure, high blood cholesterol, and diabetes to be a concern in their community, and had high awareness of the risk factors associated with these diseases. Reported rates of hypertension, high cholesterol, and diabetes suggest that lifestyle interventions targeting diet and physical activity, in addition to health education, are needed in this population.

  7. Trustworthy patient decision aids: a qualitative analysis addressing the risk of competing interests

    PubMed Central

    Elwyn, Glyn; Dannenberg, Michelle; Blaine, Arianna; Poddar, Urbashi; Durand, Marie-Anne

    2016-01-01

    Objective Our aim in this study was to examine the competing interest policies and procedures of organisations who develop and maintain patient decision aids. Design Descriptive and thematic analysis of data collected from a cross-sectional survey of patient decision aid developer's competing interest policies and disclosure forms. Results We contacted 25 organisations likely to meet the inclusion criteria. 12 eligible organisations provided data. 11 organisations did not reply and 2 declined to participate. Most patient decision aid developers recognise the need to consider the issue of competing interests. Assessment processes vary widely and, for the most part, are insufficiently robust to minimise the risk of competing interests. Only half of the 12 organisations had competing interest policies. Some considered disclosure to be sufficient, while others imposed differing levels of exclusion. Conclusions Patient decision aid developers do not have a consistent approach to managing competing interests. Some have developed policies and procedures, while others pay no attention to the issue. As is the case for clinical practice guidelines, increasing attention will need to be given to how the competing interests of contributors of evidence-based publications may influence materials, especially if they are designed for patient use. PMID:27612542

  8. The third spatial dimension risk approach for individual risk and group risk in multiple use of space.

    PubMed

    Suddle, Shahid; Ale, Ben

    2005-08-31

    Buildings above roads and railways are examples of multiple use of space. Safety is one of the critical issues for such projects. Risk analyses can be undertaken to investigate what safety measures that are required to realise these projects. The results of these analyses can also be compared to risk acceptance criteria, if they are applicable. In The Netherlands, there are explicit criteria for acceptability of individual risk and societal risk. Traditionally calculations of individual risk result in contours of equal risk on a map and thus are considered in two-dimensional space only. However, when different functions are layered the third spatial dimension, height, becomes an important parameter. The various activities and structures above and below each other impose mutual risks. There are no explicit norms or policies about how to deal with the individual or group risk approach in the third dimension. This paper proposes an approach for these problems and gives some examples. Finally, the third dimension risk approach is applied in a case study of Bos en Lommer, Amsterdam.

  9. Whole Neuraxis Irradiation to Address Central Nervous System Relapse in High-Risk Neuroblastoma

    SciTech Connect

    Croog, Victoria J.; Kramer, Kim; Cheung, Nai-Kong V.; Kushner, Brian H.; Modak, Shakeel; Souweidane, Mark M.; Wolden, Suzanne L.

    2010-11-01

    Background: As systemic control of high-risk neuroblastoma (NB) has improved, relapse in the central nervous system (CNS) is an increasingly recognized entity that carries a grim prognosis. This study describes the use of craniospinal irradiation (CSI) for CNS relapse and compares outcomes to patients who received focal radiotherapy (RT). Methods: A retrospective query identified 29 children with NB treated at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center since 1987 who received RT for CNS relapse. At CNS relapse, 16 patients received CSI (median dose, 2160cGy), and 13 received focal RT. Of those who underwent CSI, 14 (88%) received intra-Ommaya (IO) radioimmunotherapy (RIT); one patient in the non-CSI cohort received IO-RIT. Results: Patient characteristics were similar between the groups. Time to CNS relapse was 20 and 17 months for the CSI and non-CSI cohorts, respectively. At a median follow-up of 28 months, 12 patients (75%) in the CSI group are alive without CNS disease, including two patients with isolated skeletal relapse. Another patient is alive without disease after a brain relapse was retreated with RT. Three patients died-one with no NB at autopsy, one of CNS disease, and one of systemic disease. The two patients who died of NB did not receive IO-RIT. All 13 patients in the non-CSI cohort died at a median of 8.8 months. Conclusions: Low-dose CSI together with IO-RIT provides durable CNS remissions and improved survival compared with focal RT and conventional therapies. Further evaluation of long-term NB survivors after CSI is warranted to determine the treatment consequences for this cohort.

  10. Addressing the health benefits and risks, involving vitamin D or skin cancer, of increased sun exposure

    PubMed Central

    Moan, Johan; Porojnicu, Alina Carmen; Dahlback, Arne; Setlow, Richard B.

    2008-01-01

    Solar radiation is the main cause of skin cancers. However, it also is a main source of vitamin D for humans. Because the optimal status of vitamin D protects against internal cancers and a number of other diseases, a controversy exists: Will increased sun exposure lead to net health benefits or risks? We calculated the relative yield of vitamin D photosynthesis as a function of latitude with a radiative transfer model and cylinder geometry for the human skin surface. The annual yield of vitamin D is 3.4 and 4.8 times larger below the equator than in the U.K. and Scandinavia, respectively. In populations with similar skin types, there are clear latitude gradients of all major forms of skin cancer, indicating a north–south gradient in real sun exposure. Surprisingly, the incidence rates of major internal cancers also increase from north to south. However, the survival prognosis also improves significantly from north to south. Reasons for these findings are discussed in view of the role of vitamin D. In Norway, melanoma rates increased by a factor of 6 from 1960 to 1990, while the prognosis improved in the same period. After 1990, melanoma rates have remained constant or even decreased in age groups <50 years, whereas the prognosis has not improved further. These data, together with those for internal cancers and the beneficial effects of an optimal vitamin D status, indicate that increased sun exposure may lead to improved cancer prognosis and, possibly, give more positive than adverse health effects. PMID:18180454

  11. A New Standard-Based Polynomial Interpolation (SBPIn) Method to Address Gel-to-Gel Variability for the Comparison of Multiple Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis Profile Matrices

    PubMed Central

    Valentín-Vargas, Alexis; Chorover, Jon; Maier, Raina M.

    2013-01-01

    The Standard-Based Polynomial Interpolation (SBPIn) method is a new simple three-step protocol proposed to address common gel-to-gel variations for the comparison of sample profiles across multiple DGGE gels. The advantages of this method include no requirement for additional software or modification of the standard DGGE protocol. PMID:23234884

  12. Is Hypovitaminosis D One of the Environmental Risk Factors for Multiple Sclerosis?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pierrot-Deseilligny, Charles; Souberbielle, Jean-Claude

    2010-01-01

    The role of hypovitaminosis D as a possible risk factor for multiple sclerosis is reviewed. First, it is emphasized that hypovitaminosis D could be only one of the risk factors for multiple sclerosis and that numerous other environmental and genetic risk factors appear to interact and combine to trigger the disease. Secondly, the classical…

  13. An approach to addressing ethical issues in a community-based risk assessment for HIV: a case from Chennai, India.

    PubMed

    Sivaram, Sudha; Srikrishnan, Aylur Kailasom; Murgavel, Kailapuri G; Mayer, Kenneth H; Anand, S; Celentano, David D; Solomon, Suniti

    2005-06-01

    Community-based assessment of HIV prevalence and behavioural risk factors is the basis for deciding priorities of prevention and care programmes. Here, upholding the human rights of participants in assessment is of utmost importance. The objective of the paper was to describe the process of implementation of an epidemiological survey to assess HIV-related behavioural and biological factors in Chennai city in South India and to suggest an ethical framework for conducting similar assessment activities in developing-country settings. A survey was conducted with participation from residents (n=1,659) of low-income urban communities (slums) as part of a community-based HIV/STD-prevention trial. Administration of the survey was preceded by extensive community contact and household visits to inform community members about the trial and assessment activities. Formative research further strengthened rapport with community, highlighted community concerns, and identified HIV-related risk behaviours that informed questionnaire design. The process of obtaining informed consent began before assessment activities and provided an opportunity for individuals to discuss participation with their families and friends. Privacy during assessment, comprehensive follow-up care for those who tested positive for HIV/STDs, such as nutritional and prevention counselling, referral services for opportunistic infections, and antenatal-care options for pregnant women increased trust and credibility of the project. The sustained availability of trial staff to facilitate access to resources to address non-HIV/STD-related felt-needs further strengthened participation of the community members. These resources included liaison services with local government to obtain public services, such as water and electricity and resources, to address concerns, such as alcohol abuse and domestic violence. Based on this experience, an ethical framework is suggested for conducting HIV epidemiological risk assessment

  14. Insights into the Interactions between Educational Messages: Looking across Multiple Organizations Addressing Water Issues in Maricopa County, Arizona

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cutts, Bethany; Saltz, Charlene; Elser, Monica

    2008-01-01

    The public receives environmental information from a variety of sources. Evaluation of a single program or one organization's effort is incomplete. Through surveys and interviews, we evaluate the cumulative impact of outreach by 20 water-related organizations in Maricopa County, Arizona. Household water conservation is a topic addressed by 18…

  15. Effectiveness of knowledge translation tools addressing multiple high-burden chronic diseases affecting older adults: protocol for a systematic review alongside a realist review

    PubMed Central

    Kastner, Monika; Perrier, Laure; Hamid, Jemila; Tricco, Andrea C; Cardoso, Roberta; Ivers, Noah M; Liu, Barbara; Marr, Sharon; Holroyd-Leduc, Jayna; Wong, Geoff; Graves, Lisa; Straus, Sharon E

    2015-01-01

    Introduction The burden of chronic disease is a global phenomenon, particularly among people aged 65 years and older. More than half of older adults have more than one chronic disease and their care is not optimal. Chronic disease management (CDM) tools have the potential to meet this challenge but they are primarily focused on a single disease, which fails to address the growing number of seniors with multiple chronic conditions. Methods and analysis We will conduct a systematic review alongside a realist review to identify effective CDM tools that integrate one or more high-burden chronic diseases affecting older adults and to better understand for whom, under what circumstances, how and why they produce their outcomes. We will search MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, AgeLine and the Cochrane Library for experimental, quasi-experimental, observational and qualitative studies in any language investigating CDM tools that facilitate optimal disease management in one or more high-burden chronic diseases affecting adults aged ≥65 years. Study selection will involve calibration of reviewers to ensure reliability of screening and duplicate assessment of articles. Data abstraction and risk of bias assessment will also be performed independently. Analysis will include descriptive summaries of study and appraisal characteristics, effectiveness of each CDM tool (meta-analysis if appropriate); and a realist programme theory will be developed and refined to explain the outcome patterns within the included studies. Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval is not required for this study. We anticipate that our findings, pertaining to gaps in care across high-burden chronic diseases affecting seniors and highlighting specific areas that may require more research, will be of interest to a wide range of knowledge users and stakeholders. We will publish and present our findings widely, and also plan more active dissemination strategies such as workshops with our key stakeholders

  16. Menarche Increases Relapse Risk in Pediatric Multiple Sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Lulu, Sabeen; Graves, Jennifer; Waubant, Emmanuelle

    2015-01-01

    Background Multiple sclerosis (MS) predominantly affects women with a sex ratio of 3:1 in contrast with a 1:1 sex ratio seen in pre-pubertal onset. Thus, puberty may influence MS risk differentially in males and females. How puberty may be associated with MS clinical features and disease course remains unknown. Objective To determine the association of menarche with disease course in girls with MS. Methods This is a longitudinal retrospective study from the UCSF Regional Pediatric MS Center database. We categorized patients by time of disease onset: pre-menarche, peri-menarche and post-menarche. Poisson regression models were used for within subject relapse analyses offset by follow-up time. Results Seventy six girls were included (pre-menarche onset=17; peri-menarche onset=9; post-menarche onset=50). Age of menarche was similar in all groups (Kruskal-Wallis p=0.19). Relapse rate was the same in all three groups during first 2 years of follow-up. In girls with follow-up overlapping at least two time periods, within-subject analyses showed increased relapses during peri-menarche compared to post-menarche period (adjusted IRR=8.5, 95%CI 2.5–28.7, p=0.001). Conclusion Pubertal status may influence MS course at least in female patients. Understanding how puberty influences MS clinical features may offer new insights in important factors regulating disease processes. PMID:25948626

  17. The benefits of a watershed approach to evaluating risks for multiple hazardous waste sites

    SciTech Connect

    Burris, J.A.; Pease, A.; Jop, K.; Connely, R.

    1994-12-31

    An integrated sampling program including chemical analyses of surface waters and sediments, measurement of water quality parameters, sampling of macroinvertebrate communities, and toxicity testing of soils and sediments was implemented on a US DOD Facility within three watersheds where multiple waste sites are located. The results of the study were used to identify the migration and distribution of contamination from individual waste sites, to identify any areas of obvious biological stress where future studies should be focused, to evaluate the need for sampling and analyses of aquatic organisms, to evaluate the influence of other non-point source and point sources of contamination of other stressors, and to identify sediment contamination in relation to the waste sites. This information was necessary to the design and implementation of ecological risk assessment for the individual waste sites. The methodology used to complete the study and its results will be presented. The focus of the discussion will be on the benefits of a watershed based sampling design (versus a more traditional site by site approach) in terms of cost savings, remedial decision making, and time savings. An additional discussion will focus on how this approach can be used to address the potential additive risks to a watershed resulting from the presence of multiple waste sites.

  18. Addressing Information Security Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Qayoumi, Mohammad H.; Woody, Carol

    2005-01-01

    Good information security does not just happen--and often does not happen at all. Resources are always in short supply, and there are always other needs that seem more pressing. Why? Because information security is hard to define, the required tasks are unclear, and the work never seems to be finished. However, the loss to the organization can be…

  19. Addressing hidden financial risk.

    PubMed

    Kruger, Jan; Kruger, Jan

    2014-02-01

    Managing low-dollar, high-volume claim denials associated with outpatient procedures is a challenge for many hospitals because of the expense involved in manually reviewing such denials. These denials often are the source of "hidden loss" for hospitals. For some hospitals, the most practical, cost-effective approach for managing low-dollar, high-volume claim denials will include the use of automated systems to monitor and highlight denials and expose trends.

  20. Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World – the Roskilde Recommendations

    EPA Science Inventory

    Roskilde University hosted a November 2015 workshop on “Environmental Risk – Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World”. Thirty attendees from 9 countries developed consensus recommendations regarding: implementation of a common currency (ecosyst...

  1. Pilot evaluation of the Making Employment Needs [MEN] count intervention: addressing behavioral and structural HIV risks in heterosexual black men.

    PubMed

    Raj, Anita; Dasgupta, Anindita; Goldson, Irvienne; Lafontant, Dumas; Freeman, Elmer; Silverman, Jay G

    2014-02-01

    Few community-based HIV interventions exist for Black men at heterosexual risk for HIV. None focus on structural HIV risks such as unemployment and unstable housing. This study involved a pilot evaluation of the MEN (Making Employment Needs) Count HIV intervention, a three session peer counselor-delivered program of HIV risk reduction and gender-equity counseling, and employment and housing case management. A single-arm intervention trial of MEN Count was conducted with Black men recruited from a community men's clinic and social services program. Eligible men were those who reported two or more sex partners in the past six months and current unemployment and/or recent homelessness. Most participants (68%) had a history of incarceration. Participants (N = 50) were surveyed on outcomes at baseline (Time 1), posttest (Time 2; 60-90 days after baseline), and two-month follow-up (Time 3). The majority of participants were retained in the program (86%) and the final follow-up survey (76%). McNemar tests revealed significant reductions in the past 30-day unprotected sex from Time 1 (74%) to Time 2 (47%) and to Time 3 (47%), and in homelessness from Time 1 (58%) to Time 3 (32%). Significant increases in employment from Time 1 (8%) to Time 2 (29%) and Time 3 (32%) were also seen. Participants completed a brief participant satisfaction survey at posttest. Most (n=28, 65%) rated the program as excellent, and an additional 10 (23%) rated it as good. Although there was no significant reduction in multiple sex partners, a trend was observed from Time 1 (56%) to Time 2 (44%) and Time 3 (42%). Findings suggest that the MEN Count model is a feasible and promising HIV prevention program for Black men at heterosexual risk for HIV. Larger scale implementation and more rigorous evaluation of MEN Count are needed to confirm the study findings.

  2. Risk of multiple squamous cell carcinomas both in the esophagus and the head and neck region.

    PubMed

    Muto, Manabu; Takahashi, Mari; Ohtsu, Atsushi; Ebihara, Satoshi; Yoshida, Shigeaki; Esumi, Hiroyasu

    2005-05-01

    While multiple squamous cell carcinomas are often observed in the esophagus and the head and neck region and confound us about the favorable treatments, the reason why some patients are more likely to develop multiple cancers remains obscure. We statistically analyzed clinical factors in 203 patients with newly diagnosed squamous cell carcinoma, to assess the risk of multiple cancers for the establishment of an effective prevention and screening programs. Widespread epithelial oncogenic alterations were assessed as multiple lugol-voiding lesions (multiple LVL) using lugol chromoendoscopy. Genetic polymorphisms of alcohol dehydrogenase type 3 (ADH3) and aldehyde dehydrogenase type 2 (ALDH2) were identified by PCR-restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis. Forty patients had synchronous multiple cancers and the remaining 163 had solitary cancer. Presence of multiple LVL was the only independent risk factor for multiple cancers [relative risk (RR) = 67; 95%CI, 15-310]. Multiple LVL was observed in only smoking drinkers. Among them, a multivariate analysis demonstrated that the ALDH2 deficiency allele (RR = 5.7; 95%CI, 2.8-11.6) and the slow metabolizing ADH3 allele (RR = 1.9; 95%CI, 1.1-7.9) were the independent risk factors for multiple LVL. Combination of these alleles lead to increase the risk of multiple LVL. In conclusion, an episode of multiple LVL is a remarkable high risk for multiple cancers both at the esophagus and the head and neck region. The interaction between drinking and the ALDH2 deficiency allele increases the risk. In addition, the slow metabolizing ADH3 allele enhances the risk. Prohibiting the use of alcohol and early detection of cancer are strongly recommended for such individuals.

  3. Multiple Threats: The Co-Occurrence of Teen Health Risk Behaviors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lindberg, Laura Duberstein; Boggess, Scott; Williams, Sean

    This document presents a portrait of multiple risk-taking among teens. Using recent data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health) and the 1995 National Survey of Adolescent Males, the report describes the extent to which teens engage in multiple health risk behaviors and contrast it with the extent to which teens…

  4. Population genetics suggest that multiple invasion processes need to be addressed in the management plan of a plant disease vector

    PubMed Central

    Anderson, Kylie L; Congdon, Bradley C

    2013-01-01

    The use of a multidisciplinary approach is becoming increasingly important when developing management strategies that mitigate the economic and biological costs associated with invasive pests. A framework of simulated dispersal is combined with life-history information and analyses of population genetic structure to investigate the invasion dynamics of a plant disease vector, the island sugarcane planthopper (Eumetopina flavipes), through an archipelago of significant Australian quarantine concern. Analysis of eight microsatellite loci from 648 individuals suggests that frequent, wind-assisted immigration from multiple sources in Papua New Guinea contributes significantly to repeated colonization of far northern islands. However, intermittent wind-assisted immigration better explains patterns of genetic diversity and structure in the southern islands and on the tip of mainland Australia. Significant population structuring associated with the presence of clusters of highly related individuals results from breeding in-situ following colonization, with little postestablishment movement. Results also suggest that less important secondary movements occur between islands; these appear to be human mediated and restricted by quarantine zones. Control of the planthopper may be very difficult on islands close to Papua New Guinea given the apparent propensity for multiple invasion, but may be achievable further south where local populations appear highly independent and isolated. PMID:23789032

  5. Addressing risk factors for child abuse among high risk pregnant women: design of a randomised controlled trial of the nurse family partnership in Dutch preventive health care

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Low socio-economic status combined with other risk factors affects a person's physical and psychosocial health from childhood to adulthood. The societal impact of these problems is huge, and the consequences carry on into the next generation(s). Although several studies show these consequences, only a few actually intervene on these issues. In the United States, the Nurse Family Partnership focuses on high risk pregnant women and their children. The main goal of this program is primary prevention of child abuse. The Netherlands is the first country outside the United States allowed to translate and culturally adapt the Nurse Family Partnership into VoorZorg. The aim of the present study is to assess whether VoorZorg is as effective in the Netherland as in the United States. Methods The study consists of three partly overlapping phases. Phase 1 was the translation and cultural adaptation of Nurse Family Partnership and the design of a two-stage selection procedure. Phase 2 was a pilot study to examine the conditions for implementation. Phase 3 is the randomized controlled trial of VoorZorg compared to the care as usual. Primary outcome measures were smoking cessation during pregnancy and after birth, birth outcomes, child development, child abuse and domestic violence. The secondary outcome measure was the number of risk factors present. Discussion This study shows that the Nurse Family Partnership was successfully translated and culturally adapted into the Dutch health care system and that this program fulfills the needs of high-risk pregnant women. We hypothesize that this program will be effective in addressing risk factors that operate during pregnancy and childhood and compromise fetal and child development. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16131117 PMID:22017924

  6. A Minority Report for Social Work? The Predictive Risk Model (PRM) and the Tuituia Assessment Framework in addressing the needs of New Zealand's Vulnerable Children.

    PubMed

    Oak, Eileen

    2016-07-01

    This article examines the viability of the Risk Predictor Model (RPM) and its counterpart the actuarial risk assessment (ARA) tool in the form of the Tuituia Assessment Framework to address child vulnerability in New Zealand. In doing so, it suggests that these types of risk-assessment tools fail to address issues of contingency and complexity at the heart of the relationship-based nature of social work practice. Such developments have considerable implications for the capacity to enhance critical reflexive practice skills, whilst the introduction of these risk tools is occurring at a time when the reflexive space is being eroded as a result of the increased regulation of practice and supervision. It is further asserted that the primary aim of such instruments is not so much to detect risk, but rather to foster professional conformity with these managerialist risk-management systems so prevalent in contemporary Western societies.

  7. A Minority Report for Social Work? The Predictive Risk Model (PRM) and the Tuituia Assessment Framework in addressing the needs of New Zealand's Vulnerable Children

    PubMed Central

    Oak, Eileen

    2016-01-01

    This article examines the viability of the Risk Predictor Model (RPM) and its counterpart the actuarial risk assessment (ARA) tool in the form of the Tuituia Assessment Framework to address child vulnerability in New Zealand. In doing so, it suggests that these types of risk-assessment tools fail to address issues of contingency and complexity at the heart of the relationship-based nature of social work practice. Such developments have considerable implications for the capacity to enhance critical reflexive practice skills, whilst the introduction of these risk tools is occurring at a time when the reflexive space is being eroded as a result of the increased regulation of practice and supervision. It is further asserted that the primary aim of such instruments is not so much to detect risk, but rather to foster professional conformity with these managerialist risk-management systems so prevalent in contemporary Western societies. PMID:27559223

  8. Multiple transitions and HIV risk among orphaned Kenyan schoolgirls.

    PubMed

    Mojola, Sanyu A

    2011-03-01

    Why are orphaned girls at particular risk of acquiring HIV infection? Using a transition-to-adulthood framework, this study employs qualitative data from Nyanza Province, Kenya, to explore pathways to HIV risk among orphaned and nonorphaned high-school girls. It shows how simultaneous processes such as leaving their parental home, negotiating financial access, and relationship transitions interact to produce disproportionate risk for orphaned girls. The role of financial provision and parental love in modifying girls' trajectories to risk are also explored. A testable theoretical model is proposed based on the qualitative findings, and policy implications are suggested.

  9. Addressing the Antibiotic Resistance Problem with Probiotics: Reducing the Risk of Its Double-Edged Sword Effect

    PubMed Central

    Imperial, Ivan C. V. J.; Ibana, Joyce A.

    2016-01-01

    Antibiotic resistance is a global public health problem that requires our attention. Indiscriminate antibiotic use is a major contributor in the introduction of selective pressures in our natural environments that have significantly contributed in the rapid emergence of antibiotic-resistant microbial strains. The use of probiotics in lieu of antibiotic therapy to address certain health conditions in both animals and humans may alleviate these antibiotic-mediated selective pressures. Probiotic use is defined as the actual application of live beneficial microbes to obtain a desired outcome by preventing diseased state or improving general health. Multiple studies have confirmed the beneficial effects of probiotic use in the health of both livestock and humans. As such, probiotics consumption is gaining popularity worldwide. However, concerns have been raised in the use of some probiotics strains that carry antibiotic resistance genes themselves, as they have the potential to pass the antibiotic resistance genes to pathogenic bacteria through horizontal gene transfer. Therefore, with the current public health concern on antibiotic resistance globally, in this review, we underscore the need to screen probiotic strains that are used in both livestock and human applications to assure their safety and mitigate their potential in significantly contributing to the spread of antibiotic resistance genes in our natural environments. PMID:28018315

  10. The need for comprehensive vulnerability approaches to mirror the multiplicity in mountain hazard risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keiler, Margreth; Fuchs, Sven

    2014-05-01

    The concept of vulnerability is pillared by multiple disciplinary theories underpinning either a technical or a social origin of the concept and resulting in a range of paradigms for vulnerability quantification. By taking a natural scientific approach we argue that a large number of studies have focused either on damage-loss functions for individual mountain hazards or on semi-quantitative indicator-based approaches for multiple hazards (hazard chains). However, efforts to reduce susceptibility to hazards and to create disaster-resilient communities require intersections among these approaches, as well as among theories originating in natural and social sciences, since human activity cannot be seen independently from the environmental setting. Acknowledging different roots of disciplinary paradigms in risk management, issues determining structural, economic, institutional and social vulnerability have to be more comprehensively addressed in the future with respect to mountain hazards in Europe and beyond. It is argued that structural vulnerability as originator results in considerable economic vulnerability, generated by the institutional settings of dealing with natural hazards and shaped by the overall societal framework. If vulnerability and its counterpart, resilience, is analysed and evaluated by using such a comprehensive approach, a better understanding of the vulnerability-influencing parameters could be achieved, taking into account the interdependencies and interactions between the disciplinary foci. As a result, three key issues should be addressed in future research: (1) Vulnerability requires a new perspective on the relationship between society and environment: not as a duality, but more as a mutually constitutive relationship (including methods for assessment). (2) There is a need for concepts of vulnerability that emphasise the dynamics of temporal and spatial scales, particularly with respect to Global Change processes in mountain regions. (3

  11. Using mixture models with known class membership to address incomplete covariance structures in multiple-group growth models.

    PubMed

    Kim, Su-Young; Mun, Eun-Young; Smith, Stevens

    2014-02-01

    Multi-group latent growth modelling in the structural equation modelling framework has been widely utilized for examining differences in growth trajectories across multiple manifest groups. Despite its usefulness, the traditional maximum likelihood estimation for multi-group latent growth modelling is not feasible when one of the groups has no response at any given data collection point, or when all participants within a group have the same response at one of the time points. In other words, multi-group latent growth modelling requires a complete covariance structure for each observed group. The primary purpose of the present study is to show how to circumvent these data problems by developing a simple but creative approach using an existing estimation procedure for growth mixture modelling. A Monte Carlo simulation study was carried out to see whether the modified estimation approach provided tangible results and to see how these results were comparable to the standard multi-group results. The proposed approach produced results that were valid and reliable under the mentioned problematic data conditions. We also present a real data example and demonstrate that the proposed estimation approach can be used for the chi-square difference test to check various types of measurement invariance as conducted in a standard multi-group analysis.

  12. Especially for daughters: parent education to address alcohol and sex-related risk taking among urban young adolescent girls.

    PubMed

    O'Donnell, Lydia; Myint-U, Athi; Duran, Richard; Stueve, Ann

    2010-05-01

    This study evaluates the Especially for Daughters intervention, which aims to provide urban Black and Latino parents with information and skills to support their daughters in delaying sexual initiation and alcohol use. In a randomized field trial, 268 families with sixth-graders were recruited from New York City public schools and assigned either to the intervention, a set of audio CDs mailed home; an attention-controlled condition (print materials); or controls. Girls completed classroom baseline and three follow-up surveys, and telephone surveys were conducted with parents. At follow-up, girls in the intervention reported fewer sexual risks (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.39, confidence interval [CI] = 0.17-0.88) and less drinking (AOR = 0.38, CI = 0.15-0.97, p < .05). Their parents reported greater self-efficacy to address alcohol and sex and more communication on these topics. This gender-specific parent education program was for communities with high rates of HIV, where early sexual onset is common and often fueled by alcohol.

  13. Healthy me: A gender-specific program to address body image concerns and risk factors among preadolescents.

    PubMed

    McCabe, Marita P; Connaughton, Catherine; Tatangelo, Gemma; Mellor, David; Busija, Lucy

    2017-03-01

    This study evaluated a gender-specific, school-based program to promote positive body image and address risk factors for body dissatisfaction. In total, 652 children aged 8-10 years participated (335 intervention, 317 wait-list control). Children participated in four 60min sessions and a recap session at three months post-intervention. The broad content areas were body image, peer relationships, media awareness, healthy diet, and exercise. The activities and examples for each session were gender specific. The recap session was an overview of the four sessions. Assessment measures were completed at pre-intervention, post-intervention, and after the recap. Boys and girls in the intervention demonstrated higher muscle esteem and vegetable intake at post-intervention, compared to children in the control condition. Boys and girls demonstrated higher body esteem, muscle esteem and fruit and vegetable intake at the recap. Boys in the intervention demonstrated less investment in masculine gender norms at post-intervention and at recap.

  14. Addressing water resources risk in England and Wales: Long term infrastructure planning in a private, regulated industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turner, Sean

    2015-04-01

    Water resources planning is a complex and challenging discipline in which decision makers must deal with conflicting objectives, contested socio-economic values and vast uncertainties, including long term hydrological variability. The task is arguably more demanding in England and Wales, where private water companies must adhere to a rigid set of regulatory planning guidelines in order to justify new infrastructural investments. These guidelines prescribe a "capacity expansion" approach to planning: ensure that a deterministic measure of supply, known as "Deployable Output," meets projected demand over a 25-year planning horizon. Deployable Output is derived using a method akin to yield analysis and is commensurate with the maximum rate of supply that a water resources system can sustain without incurring failure under a simulation of historical recorded hydrological conditions. This study examines whether Deployable Output analysis is fit to serve an industry in which: water companies are seeking to invest in cross-company water transfer schemes to deal with loss of water availability brought about by European environmental legislation and an increase in demand driven by population growth; water companies are expected address potential climate change impacts through their planning activities; and regulators wish to benchmark water resource system performance across the separate companies. Of particular interest, then, is the adequacy of Deployable Output analysis as a means to measuring current and future water shortage risk and comparing across supply systems. Data from the UK National River Flow Archive are used to develop a series of hypothetical reservoir systems in two hydrologically contrasting regions -- northwest England/north Wales and Southeast England. The systems are varied by adjusting the draft ratio (ratio of target annual demand to mean annual inflow), the inflow diversity (covariance of streamflow sequences supplying the system), the strength of

  15. Risk Acceptance in Multiple Sclerosis Patients on Natalizumab Treatment

    PubMed Central

    Tur, Carmen; Tintoré, Mar; Vidal-Jordana, Ángela; Bichuetti, Denis; Nieto González, Pablo; Arévalo, María Jesús; Arrambide, Georgina; Anglada, Elisenda; Galán, Ingrid; Castilló, Joaquín; Nos, Carlos; Río, Jordi; Martín, María Isabel; Comabella, Manuel; Sastre-Garriga, Jaume; Montalban, Xavier

    2013-01-01

    Objective We aimed to investigate the ability of natalizumab (NTZ)-treated patients to assume treatment-associated risks and the factors involved in such risk acceptance. Methods From a total of 185 patients, 114 patients on NTZ as of July 2011 carried out a comprehensive survey. We obtained disease severity perception scores, personality traits’ scores, and risk-acceptance scores (RAS) so that higher RAS indicated higher risk acceptance. We recorded JC virus status (JCV+/-), prior immunosuppression, NTZ treatment duration, and clinical characteristics. NTZ patients were split into subgroups (A-E), depending on their individual PML risk. Some 22 MS patients on first-line drugs (DMD) acted as controls. Results No differences between treatment groups were observed in disease severity perception and personality traits. RAS were higher in NTZ than in DMD patients (p<0.01). Perception of the own disease as a more severe condition tended to predict higher RAS (p=0.07). Higher neuroticism scores predicted higher RAS in the NTZ group as a whole (p=0.04), and in high PML-risk subgroups (A-B) (p=0.02). In low PML-risk subgroups (C-E), higher RAS were associated with a JCV+ status (p=0.01). Neither disability scores nor pre-treatment relapse rate predicted RAS in either group. Conclusions Risk acceptance is a multifactorial phenomenon, which might be partly explained by an adaptive process, in light of the higher risk acceptance amongst NTZ-treated patients and, especially, amongst those who are JCV seropositive but still have low PML risk, but which seems also intimately related to personality traits. PMID:24340060

  16. What Are the Risk Factors for Multiple Myeloma?

    MedlinePlus

    ... this cancer are at least 65 years old. Gender Men are slightly more likely to develop multiple ... would like to unsubscribe/opt out from our communications, please follow this link: http://www.cancer.org/ ...

  17. Health risk implications from simultaneous exposure to multiple environmental contaminants.

    PubMed

    Genthe, B; Le Roux, W J; Schachtschneider, K; Oberholster, P J; Aneck-Hahn, N H; Chamier, J

    2013-07-01

    Water quality has deteriorated in the upper Olifants River system, South Africa, as a result of land use activities which include mining, agriculture and industries. A health risk assessment was conducted from 2009 to 2011 in the catchment to determine the possible risks local communities face from various pollutants such as microbials, heavy metals and oestrogen in the river water and vegetation. Aluminium and manganese accumulated in plants and vanadium and aluminium concentrations found in selective water samples posed significant health risks when consumed. A quantitative microbial risk assessment revealed that the combined risk of infection ranged from 1 to 26 percent with the Norovirus posing the overall greatest health risk. The anticipated disability adjusted life years resulting from drinking untreated water from these sites are in the order of 10,000 times greater than what is considered acceptable. The oestradiol activity, caused by endocrine disrupting compounds in the water, measured above the trigger value of 0.7ngL(-1). Impoverished communities in the area, who partially depend on river water for potable and domestic use, are exposed to immune-compromising metals that increase their probability of infection from waterborne diseases caused by the excess microbial pathogens in the contaminated surface water.

  18. Risk management for sulfur dioxide abatement under multiple uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, C.; Sun, W.; Tan, Q.; Liu, Y.; Lu, W. T.; Guo, H. C.

    2016-03-01

    In this study, interval-parameter programming, two-stage stochastic programming (TSP), and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) were incorporated into a general optimization framework, leading to an interval-parameter CVaR-based two-stage programming (ICTP) method. The ICTP method had several advantages: (i) its objective function simultaneously took expected cost and risk cost into consideration, and also used discrete random variables and discrete intervals to reflect uncertain properties; (ii) it quantitatively evaluated the right tail of distributions of random variables which could better calculate the risk of violated environmental standards; (iii) it was useful for helping decision makers to analyze the trade-offs between cost and risk; and (iv) it was effective to penalize the second-stage costs, as well as to capture the notion of risk in stochastic programming. The developed model was applied to sulfur dioxide abatement in an air quality management system. The results indicated that the ICTP method could be used for generating a series of air quality management schemes under different risk-aversion levels, for identifying desired air quality management strategies for decision makers, and for considering a proper balance between system economy and environmental quality.

  19. Genomic analysis of high-risk smoldering multiple myeloma

    PubMed Central

    López-Corral, Lucía; Mateos, María Victoria; Corchete, Luis A.; Sarasquete, María Eugenia; de la Rubia, Javier; de Arriba, Felipe; Lahuerta, Juan-José; García-Sanz, Ramón; San Miguel, Jesús F.; Gutiérrez, Norma C.

    2012-01-01

    Smoldering myeloma is an asymptomatic plasma cell dyscrasia with a heterogeneous propensity to progress to active myeloma. In order to investigate the biology of smoldering myeloma patients with high risk of progression, we analyzed the genomic characteristics by FISH, SNP-arrays and gene expression profile of a group of patients with high-risk smoldering myeloma included in a multicenter randomized trial. Chromosomal abnormalities detected by FISH and SNP-arrays at diagnosis were not associated to risk of progression to symptomatic myeloma. However, the overexpression of four SNORD genes (SNORD25, SNORD27, SNORD30 and SNORD31) was correlated with shorter time to progression (P<0.03). When plasma cells from high-risk smoldering patients who progressed to symptomatic myeloma were sequentially analyzed, newly acquired lesions together with an increase in the proportion of plasma cells carrying a given abnormality were observed. These findings suggest that gene expression profiling is a valuable technique to identify smoldering myeloma patients with high risk of progression. (Clinical Trials NCT00443235) PMID:22331267

  20. Childhood Diagnoses and Later Risk for Multiple Suicide Attempts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rudd, M. David; Joiner, Thomas E.; Rumzek, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The relationship between childhood diagnosis, personality psychopathology and suicidal behavior in young adulthood was explored in a sample of 327 suicide ideators, single attempters, and multiple attempters. Of the total sample, 174 received at least one childhood diagnosis; the 153 without a diagnosis provided a comparison group. Results suggest…

  1. Risk stratification in multiple myeloma, part 2: the significance of genetic risk factors in the era of currently available therapies.

    PubMed

    Biran, Noa; Jagannath, Sundar; Chari, Ajai

    2013-01-01

    Multiple myeloma (MM) is a heterogeneous disease, and a variety of risk factors at the time of initial diagnosis can be used to stratify patients. In the first part of this 2-part series, we reviewed the currently identified prognostic factors, characterized by disease burden, host factors, tumor biology, and depth of response to therapy. However, these risk factors cannot be interpreted independently of therapies. Novel therapies have the potential to worsen or improve outcomes compared with conventional therapy in high-risk patients, or actually overcome the high-risk status, thereby resulting in reclassification as standard risk. For example, thalidomide (Thalomid, Celgene) is associated with worse outcomes in patients with high-risk cytogenetic abnormalities, such as deletion of chromosomes 13 and 17p, whereas proteasome inhibitors appear to overcome t(4;14). The second part of this series reviews the significance of various genetic risks in the era of novel therapies for MM.

  2. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world – the Roskilde recommendations.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common curre...

  3. Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Wei; Zhuo, Li; Zheng, Jing; Ge, Yi; Gu, Zhihui; Tian, Yugang

    2016-01-01

    A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales. PMID:26901210

  4. Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China.

    PubMed

    Xu, Wei; Zhuo, Li; Zheng, Jing; Ge, Yi; Gu, Zhihui; Tian, Yugang

    2016-02-17

    A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales.

  5. Modest familial risks for multiple sclerosis: a registry-based study of the population of Sweden.

    PubMed

    Westerlind, Helga; Ramanujam, Ryan; Uvehag, Daniel; Kuja-Halkola, Ralf; Boman, Marcus; Bottai, Matteo; Lichtenstein, Paul; Hillert, Jan

    2014-03-01

    Data on familial recurrence rates of complex diseases such as multiple sclerosis give important hints to aetiological factors such as the importance of genes and environment. By linking national registries, we sought to avoid common limitations of clinic-based studies such as low numbers, poor representation of the population and selection bias. Through the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry and a nationwide hospital registry, a total of 28 396 patients with multiple sclerosis were identified. We used the national Multi-Generation Registry to identify first and second degree relatives as well as cousins, and the Swedish Twin Registry to identify twins of patients with multiple sclerosis. Crude and age corrected familial risks were estimated for cases and found to be in the same range as previously published figures. Matched population-based controls were used to calculate relative risks, revealing lower estimates of familial multiple sclerosis risks than previously reported, with a sibling recurrence risk (λs = 7.1; 95% confidence interval: 6.42-7.86). Surprisingly, despite a well-established lower prevalence of multiple sclerosis amongst males, the relative risks were equal among maternal and paternal relations. A previously reported increased risk in maternal relations could thus not be replicated. An observed higher transmission rate from fathers to sons compared with mothers to sons suggested a higher transmission to offspring from the less prevalent sex; therefore, presence of the so-called 'Carter effect' could not be excluded. We estimated the heritability of multiple sclerosis using 74 757 twin pairs with known zygosity, of which 315 were affected with multiple sclerosis, and added information from 2.5 million sibling pairs to increase power. The heritability was estimated to be 0.64 (0.36-0.76), whereas the shared environmental component was estimated to be 0.01 (0.00-0.18). In summary, whereas multiple sclerosis is to a great extent an inherited trait

  6. Risk and Protective Profiles Among Never Exposed, Single Form, and Multiple Form Violence Exposed Youth

    PubMed Central

    Nurius, Paula S.; Russell, Patricia L.; Herting, Jerald R.; Hooven, Carole; Thompson, Elaine A.

    2010-01-01

    This investigation integrated violence exposure with critical risk and protective factors linked to healthy adolescent adaptation and transition into early adulthood. A racially diverse sample of 848 adolescents identified as at-risk for school drop-out were assessed for no, single, or multiple forms of violence exposure. MANOVA tests revealed that youth with single form victimization fared more poorly than never-exposed youth, and that multiple-form victimization held the greatest jeopardy to development. Youth with multiple-form victimization reported significantly elevated risk factors (emotional distress, life stress, suicide risk, risky behaviors) and lower protective factors (social support, school engagement, family structure) than both single-form and never-exposed youth. Implications are discussed for preventive and early intervention programming and for examining the transition of at-risk youth into young adulthood. PMID:21494415

  7. 76 FR 7187 - Priorities for Addressing Risks to the Reliability of the Bulk-Power System; Reliability...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-02-09

    ... protecting against sophisticated and fast-moving threats? What role do you expect Smart Grid to play in the... grid reliability under Smart Grid applications? If not, how should NERC address these issues? c. Will Smart Grid applications have non-cyber reliability implications that need to be addressed? d. What...

  8. Multiple jeopardy: risk and protective factors among addicted mothers' offspring.

    PubMed

    Luthar, S S; Cushing, G; Merikangas, K R; Rounsaville, B J

    1998-01-01

    Objectives of this study were to ascertain risk and protective factors in the adjustment of 78 school-age and teenage offspring of opioid- and cocaine-abusing mothers. Using a multimethod, multiinformant approach, child outcomes were operationalized via lifetime psychiatric diagnoses and everyday social competence (each based on both mother and child reports), and dimensional assessments of symptoms (mother report). Risk/protective factors examined included the child sociodemographic attributes of gender, age, and ethnicity, aspects of maternal psychopathology, and both mother's and children's cognitive functioning. Results revealed that greater child maladjustment was linked with increasing age, Caucasian (as opposed to African American) ethnicity, severity of maternal psychiatric disturbance, higher maternal cognitive abilities (among African Americans) and lower child cognitive abilities (among Caucasians). Limitations of the study are discussed, as are implications of findings for future research.

  9. Seeing the risks of multiple Arctic amplifying feedbacks.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carter, P.

    2014-12-01

    There are several potentially very large sources of Arctic amplifying feedbacks that have been identified. They present a great risk to the future as they could become self and inter-reinforcing with uncontrollable knock-on, or cascading risks. This has been called a domino effect risk by Carlos Duarte. Because of already committed global warming and the millennial duration of global warming, these are highly policy relevant. These Arctic feedback processes are now all operant with emissions of carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide detected. The extent of the risks from these feedback sources are not obvious or easy to understand by policy makers and the public. They are recorded in the IPCC AR5 as potential tipping points, as is the irreversibility of permafrost thaw. Some of them are not accounted for in the IPCC AR5 global warming projections because of quantitative uncertainty. UNEP issued a 2012 report (Policy Implications of Thawing Permafrost) advising that by omitting carbon feedback emissions from permafrost, carbon budget calculations by err on the low side. There is the other unassessed issue of a global warming safety limit for preventing uncontrollable increasing Arctic feedback emissions. Along with our paper, we provide illustrations of the Arctic feedback sources and processes from satellite imagery and flow charts that allows for their qualitative consideration. We rely on the IPCC assessments, the 2012 paper Possible role of wetlands permafrost can methane hydrates in the methane cycle under future climate change; a review, by Fiona M. O'Connor et al., and build on the WWF 2009 Arctic Climate Feedbacks: Global Implications. The potential sources of Arctic feedback processes identified include: Arctic and Far North snow albedo decline, Arctic summer sea ice albedo decline, Greenland summer ice surface melting albedo loss, albedo decline by replacement of Arctic tundra with forest, tundra fires, Boreal forest fires, Boreal forest die

  10. Teaching Enhanced Milieu Language Teaching Skills to Parents in Multiple Risk Families

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peterson, Pete; Carta, Judith J.; Greenwood, Charles

    2005-01-01

    A multiple baseline design across three parent-child dyads of families with multiple risk factors was used to determine the effectiveness of teaching parents to use milieu language teaching procedures. Parents were taught to use two sets of milieu language teaching skills: responsive interaction and incidental teaching. Results showed that parents…

  11. Report: EPA Is Documenting How It Addresses Time-Critical Public Health Risks Under Its Superfund Authority

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Report #16-P-0059, December 9, 2015. We found that the EPA can provide documentation that imminent and substantial endangerment threats to public health at Superfund time-critical removal sites have been addressed.

  12. Ranking ecological risks of multiple chemical stressors on amphibians.

    PubMed

    Fedorenkova, Anastasia; Vonk, J Arie; Lenders, H J Rob; Creemers, Raymond C M; Breure, Anton M; Hendriks, A Jan

    2012-06-01

    Populations of amphibians have been declining worldwide since the late 1960s. Despite global concern, no studies have quantitatively assessed the major causes of this decline. In the present study, species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) were developed to analyze the sensitivity of anurans for ammonium, nitrate, heavy metals (cadmium, copper), pesticides (18 compounds), and acidification (pH) based on laboratory toxicity data. Ecological risk (ER) was calculated as the probability that a measured environmental concentration of a particular stressor in habitats where anurans were observed would exceed the toxic effect concentrations derived from the species sensitivity distributions. The assessment of ER was used to rank the stressors according to their potential risk to anurans based on a case study of Dutch freshwater bodies. The derived ERs revealed that threats to populations of anurans decreased in the sequence of pH, copper, diazinon, ammonium, and endosulfan. Other stressors studied were of minor importance. The method of deriving ER by combining field observation data and laboratory data provides insight into potential threats to species in their habitats and can be used to prioritize stressors, which is necessary to achieve effective management in amphibian conservation.

  13. Feasibility and acceptability of a multiple risk factor intervention: The Step Up randomized pilot trial

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Interventions are needed which can successfully modify more than one disease risk factor at a time, but much remains to be learned about the acceptability, feasibility, and effectiveness of multiple risk factor (MRF) interventions. To address these issues and inform future intervention development, we conducted a randomized pilot trial (n = 52). This study was designed to assess the feasibility and acceptability of the Step Up program, a MRF cognitive-behavioral program designed to improve participants' mental and physical well-being by reducing depressive symptoms, promoting smoking cessation, and increasing physical activity. Methods Participants were recruited from a large health care organization and randomized to receive usual care treatment for depression, smoking, and physical activity promotion or the phone-based Step Up counseling program plus usual care. Participants were assessed at baseline, three and six months. Results The intervention was acceptable to participants and feasible to offer within a healthcare system. The pilot also offered important insights into the optimal design of a MRF program. While not powered to detect clinically significant outcomes, changes in target behaviors indicated positive trends at six month follow-up and statistically significant improvement was also observed for depression. Significantly more experimental participants reported a clinically significant improvement (50% reduction) in their baseline depression score at four months (54% vs. 26%, OR = 3.35, 95% CI [1.01- 12.10], p = 0.05) and 6 months (52% vs. 13%, OR = 7.27, 95% CI [1.85 - 37.30], p = 0.004) Conclusions Overall, results suggest the Step Up program warrants additional research, although some program enhancements may be beneficial. Key lessons learned from this research are shared to promote the understanding of others working in this field. Trial registration The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00644995). PMID:21414216

  14. A Constructionist Discourse on Resilience: Multiple Contexts, Multiple Realities among At-Risk Children and Youth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ungar, Michael

    2004-01-01

    An ecological approach to the study of resilience, informed by Systems Theory and emphasizing predictable relationships between risk and protective factors, circular causality, and transactional processes, is inadequate to account for the diversity of people's experiences of resilience. In contrast, a constructionist interpretation of resilience…

  15. Comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials using clinical risk-benefit analysis

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background To demonstrate the use of risk-benefit analysis for comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials, we applied this approach to the evaluation of five anticoagulants to prevent thrombosis in patients undergoing orthopedic surgery. Methods Using a cost-effectiveness approach from a clinical perspective (i.e. risk benefit analysis) we compared thromboprophylaxis with warfarin, low molecular weight heparin, unfractionated heparin, fondaparinux or ximelagatran in patients undergoing major orthopedic surgery, with sub-analyses according to surgery type. Proportions and variances of events defining risk (major bleeding) and benefit (thrombosis averted) were obtained through a meta-analysis and used to define beta distributions. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted and used to calculate incremental risks, benefits, and risk-benefit ratios. Finally, net clinical benefit was calculated for all replications across a range of risk-benefit acceptability thresholds, with a reference range obtained by estimating the case fatality rate - ratio of thrombosis to bleeding. Results The analysis showed that compared to placebo ximelagatran was superior to other options but final results were influenced by type of surgery, since ximelagatran was superior in total knee replacement but not in total hip replacement. Conclusions Using simulation and economic techniques we demonstrate a method that allows comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials with multiple arms by determining the option with the best risk-benefit profile. It can be helpful in clinical decision making since it incorporates risk, benefit, and personal risk acceptance. PMID:22233221

  16. Multiple nutritional factors and the risk of Hashimoto's Thyroiditis.

    PubMed

    Hu, Shiqian; Rayman, Margaret P

    2017-03-14

    Background Hashimoto's Thyroiditis (HT) is considered to be the most common autoimmune disease. It is currently accepted that genetic susceptibility, environmental factors and immune disorders contribute to its development. Regarding nutritional factors, evidence implicates high iodine intake, deficiencies of selenium and iron with a potential relevance of vitamin D status. To elucidate the role of nutritional factors in the risk, pathogenesis and treatment of Hashimoto's Thyroiditis (HT), PubMed and the Cochrane Library were searched for publications on iodine, iron, selenium and vitamin D and risk/treatment of HT. Summary Iodine: Chronic exposure to excess iodine intake induces autoimmune thyroiditis, partly because highly-iodinated thyroglobulin is more immunogenic. Recent introduction of universal salt iodization can have a similar, though transient, effect. Iron: Iron deficiency impairs thyroid metabolism. Thyroid peroxidase (TPO), the enzyme responsible for the production of thyroid hormones is a heme (iron-containing) enzyme; it becomes active at the apical surface of thyrocytes only after binding heme. HT patients are frequently iron-deficient as autoimmune gastritis, which impairs iron absorption, is a common co-morbidity. Treatment of anemic women with impaired thyroid function with iron improved thyroid-hormone concentrations while thyroxine and iron together were more effective in improving iron status. Selenium: Selenoproteins are essential to thyroid action. In particular, the glutathione peroxidases protect the thyroid by removing excessive hydrogen peroxide produced there for thyroglobulin iodination. Genetic data implicate the anti-inflammatory selenoprotein S in HT risk. There is evidence from observational studies and randomized controlled trials that selenium/selenoproteins can reduce TPO-antibody titer, hypothyroidism and post-partum thyroiditis. Vitamin D: Lower vitamin D status has been found in HT patients than in controls and inverse

  17. A Systematic Review of Training Interventions Addressing Sexual Violence against Marginalized At-Risk Groups of Women

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kouta, Christiana; Pithara, Christalla; Zobnina, Anna; Apostolidou, Zoe; Christodoulou, Josie; Papadakaki, Maria; Chliaoutakis, Joannes

    2015-01-01

    Women from marginalized groups working in occupations such as domestic work are at increased risk for sexual violence. Scarce evidence exists about training interventions targeting such groups. The article aims to identify community and workplace-based training interventions aiming to increase capacity among marginalized at-risk women to deal with…

  18. Longitudinal prediction of disruptive behavior disorders in adolescent males from multiple risk domains.

    PubMed

    Trentacosta, Christopher J; Hyde, Luke W; Goodlett, Benjamin D; Shaw, Daniel S

    2013-08-01

    The disruptive behavior disorders are among the most prevalent youth psychiatric disorders, and they predict numerous problematic outcomes in adulthood. This study examined multiple domains of risk during early childhood and early adolescence as longitudinal predictors of disruptive behavior disorder diagnoses among adolescent males. Early adolescent risks in the domains of sociodemographic factors, the caregiving context, and youth attributes were examined as mediators of associations between early childhood risks and disruptive behavior disorder diagnoses. Participants were 309 males from a longitudinal study of low-income mothers and their sons. Caregiving and youth risk during early adolescence each predicted the likelihood of receiving a disruptive behavior disorder diagnosis. Furthermore, sociodemographic and caregiving risk during early childhood were indirectly associated with disruptive behavior disorder diagnoses via their association with early adolescent risk. The findings suggest that preventive interventions targeting risk across domains may reduce the prevalence of disruptive behavior disorders.

  19. The development and implementation of theory-driven programs capable of addressing poverty-impacted children's health, mental health, and prevention needs: CHAMP and CHAMP+, evidence-informed, family-based interventions to address HIV risk and care.

    PubMed

    McKernan McKay, Mary; Alicea, Stacey; Elwyn, Laura; McClain, Zachary R B; Parker, Gary; Small, Latoya A; Mellins, Claude Ann

    2014-01-01

    This article describes a program of prevention and intervention research conducted by the CHAMP (Collaborative HIV prevention and Adolescent Mental health Project; McKay & Paikoff, 2007 ) investigative team. CHAMP refers to a set of theory-driven, evidence-informed, collaboratively designed, family-based approaches meant to address the prevention, health, and mental health needs of poverty-impacted African American and Latino urban youth who are either at risk for HIV exposure or perinatally infected and at high risk for reinfection and possible transmission. CHAMP approaches are informed by theoretical frameworks that incorporate an understanding of the critical influences of multilevel contextual factors on youth risk taking and engagement in protective health behaviors. Highly influential theories include the triadic theory of influence, social action theory, and ecological developmental perspectives. CHAMP program delivery strategies were developed via a highly collaborative process drawing upon community-based participatory research methods in order to enhance cultural and contextual sensitivity of program content and format. The development and preliminary outcomes associated with a family-based intervention for a new population, perinatally HIV-infected youth and their adult caregivers, referred to as CHAMP+, is described to illustrate the integration of theory, existing evidence, and intensive input from consumers and healthcare providers.

  20. Concurrent multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents in Luangnamtha province, Lao PDR

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Multiple health risk behaviors (HRBs) among adolescents pose a threat to their health, including HIV/AIDS. Health risk behaviors such as alcohol use, smoking, substance use, and sexual risk behaviors among youth have been shown to co-occur with each others. The objectives of this study was to estimate the prevalence of single and concurrent health risk behaviors and to explore how health risk behavior is associated with socio-demographic factors and peers' behaviors. Methods A cross sectional design was used to examine health risk behaviors of adolescents between the age 14 and 19 years living in the Luangnamtha province, Lao PDR. The study was conducted between June and August, 2008. An ordinal logistic regression model that simultaneously explored demographic factors and the influence of the behavior of peers on three categories of multiple HRBs (no risk, one risk, and two or more health risk behaviors) was performed. Results A total of 1360 respondents, 669 (49.1%) boys with mean age 16.7 ± 1.6 and 699 (50.9%) girls aged 16.1 ± 1.5 were recruited into the study. The majority reported two or fewer risk behaviors. However, multiple risk behaviors increased with age for both sexes. About 46.8% (n = 637) reported no risk, 39.3 percent (n = 535) reported one risk, 8.1 percent (n = 110) reported two risks, and 5.8 percent reported more than two health risk behaviors. The protective factors among boys were school attendance (OR = .53, CI = .33-.86), being Hmong and Yao ethnicity (OR = .48, CI-.26-.90), while being above the age of 15 (OR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.33-3.60), Akha ethnicity (OR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.04-4.61), peer's smoking (OR = 3.11, 95% CI = 2.1-4.6), and peer's drinking alcohol (OR = 1.88, 95% CI = 1.1-3.21) were significantly associated with the presence of multiple risk behaviors among boys. Having some education (OR = 0.17, 95% CI = 0.06-0.45), and being of Hmong and Yao ethnicity (OR = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.18-0.80) were factors that protected girls

  1. [Integrated risk evaluation of multiple disasters affecting longyan yield in Fujian Province, East China].

    PubMed

    Chen, Jia-Jin; Wang, Jia-Yi; Li, Li-Chun; Lin, Jing; Yang, Kai; Ma, Zhi-Guo; Xu, Zong-Huan

    2012-03-01

    In this study, an index system for the integrated risk evaluation of multiple disasters on the Longyan production in Fujian Province was constructed, based on the analysis of the major environmental factors affecting the Longyan growth and yield, and from the viewpoints of potential hazard of disaster-causing factors, vulnerability of hazard-affected body, and disaster prevention and mitigation capability of Longyan growth regions in the Province. In addition, an integrated evaluation model of multiple disasters was established to evaluate the risks of the major agro-meteorological disasters affecting the Longyan yield, based on the yearly meteorological data, Longyan planting area and yield, and other socio-economic data in Longyan growth region in Fujian, and by using the integral weight of risk indices determined by AHP and entropy weight coefficient methods. In the Province, the Longyan growth regions with light integrated risk of multiple disasters were distributed in the coastal counties (except Dongshan County) with low elevation south of Changle, the regions with severe and more severe integrated risk were mainly in Zhangping of Longyan, Dongshan, Pinghe, Nanjin, and Hua' an of Zhangzhou, Yongchun and Anxi of Quanzhou, north mountainous areas of Putian and Xianyou, Minqing, Minhou, Luoyuan, and mountainous areas of Fuzhou, and Fuan, Xiapu, and mountainous areas of Ninde, among which, the regions with severe integrated risk were in Dongshan, Zhangping, and other mountainous areas with high altitudes, and the regions with moderate integrated risk were distributed in the other areas of the Province.

  2. Level of education and multiple sclerosis risk after adjustment for known risk factors: The EnvIMS study

    PubMed Central

    Bjørnevik, Kjetil; Riise, Trond; Cortese, Marianna; Holmøy, Trygve; Kampman, Margitta T; Magalhaes, Sandra; Myhr, Kjell-Morten; Wolfson, Christina; Pugliatti, Maura

    2016-01-01

    Background: Several recent studies have found a higher risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) among people with a low level of education. This has been suggested to reflect an effect of smoking and lower vitamin D status in the social class associated with lower levels of education. Objective: The objective of this paper is to investigate the association between level of education and MS risk adjusting for the known risk factors smoking, infectious mononucleosis, indicators of vitamin D levels and body size. Methods: Within the case-control study on Environmental Factors In MS (EnvIMS), 953 MS patients and 1717 healthy controls from Norway reported educational level and history of exposure to putative environmental risk factors. Results: Higher level of education were associated with decreased MS risk (p trend = 0.001) with an OR of 0.53 (95% CI 0.41–0.68) when comparing those with the highest and lowest level of education. This association was only moderately reduced after adjusting for known risk factors (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.44–0.83). The estimates remained similar when cases with disease onset before age 28 were excluded. Conclusion: These findings suggest that factors related to lower socioeconomic status other than established risk factors are associated with MS risk. PMID:26014605

  3. A systematic review of training interventions addressing sexual violence against marginalized at-risk groups of women.

    PubMed

    Kouta, Christiana; Pithara, Christalla; Zobnina, Anna; Apostolidou, Zoe; Christodoulou, Josie; Papadakaki, Maria; Chliaoutakis, Joannes

    2015-12-01

    Women from marginalized groups working in occupations such as domestic work are at increased risk for sexual violence. Scarce evidence exists about training interventions targeting such groups. The article aims to identify community and workplace-based training interventions aiming to increase capacity among marginalized at-risk women to deal with sexual violence. A systematic review was applied. Inclusion criteria were English language published between 2003 and 2013; reporting on delivery and/or evaluation; focusing on any form of sexual violence; delivered to professionals, affected or at-risk women; targeting migrant, at-risk women or domestic workers. Data were extracted on the setting, content, evaluation process and target population. Four studies which focused on prevention or responding to sexual violence were included. One study provided sexual violence training to vulnerable female and one provided a HIV prevention intervention to marginalized women. Learning objectives included increasing knowledge around issues of sexual violence and/or gender and human rights, prevention and response strategies. Two studies aimed to train trainers. All studies conducted an outcome evaluation and two a process evaluation. It seems there is a gap on participatory empowerment training for marginalized women. Community train-the-trainer interventions are imperative to protect themselves and deal with the risk of sexual violence.

  4. Epidemiology of multiple sclerosis in U. S. veterans: 2. Latitude, climate and the risk of multiple sclerosis

    SciTech Connect

    Norman, J.E. Jr.; Kurtzke, J.F.; Beebe, G.W.

    1983-01-01

    An analysis of ten climatic factors and elevation for the counties of birth of 4371 U.S. white male veterans with multiple sclerosis and matched controls has been made in relation to birthplace latitude. The climatic factors include an air pollution index, concentrations of minerals in ground water, measures of annual solar radiation, both in energy per unit area and in hours of sunshine, mean annual periods of high and low temperatures, and measures of annual rainfall and average humidity. These variables all significantly influence the risk of multiple sclerosis when analyzed alone, but when they are adjusted for latitude, their effect is found to be due to their correlation with this variable.

  5. Recommended minimal requirements and development guidelines for exposure setups of bio-experiments addressing the health risk concern of wireless communications.

    PubMed

    Kuster, N; Schönborn, F

    2000-10-01

    The evidence currently available on the potential health effects from electromagnetic field (EMF) exposure has been largely judged as being too tentative and inadequate to meet criteria for assessing health risks. Some of the main reasons for these shortcomings lie in the incomplete description of the exposure and poorly characterized dosimetry. Well-defined exposure conditions are essential to obtain reproducible and scientifically valuable results. To facilitate the development of optimized setups for specific bio-experiments, this paper lists basic requirements and provides development guidelines for evaluation, optimization, construction, and verification of exposure. In addition, definitions of minimum performance requirements for setups addressing the health risk concern of wireless communications are suggested.

  6. Multiple Risks, Emotion Regulation Skill, and Cortisol in Low-Income African American Youth: A Prospective Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kliewer, Wendy; Reid-Quinones, Kathryn; Shields, Brian J.; Foutz, Lauren

    2009-01-01

    Associations between multiple risks, emotion regulation skill, and basal cortisol levels were examined in a community sample of 69 African American youth (mean age = 11.30 years; 49% male) living in an urban setting. Multiple risks were assessed at Time 1 and consisted of 10 demographic and psychosocial risk factors including parent, child, and…

  7. Age at Menarche and Risk of Multiple Sclerosis: A Prospective Cohort Study Based on the Danish National Birth Cohort.

    PubMed

    Nielsen, Nete Munk; Harpsøe, Maria; Simonsen, Jacob; Stenager, Egon; Magyari, Melinda; Koch-Henriksen, Nils; Baker, Jennifer L; Hjalgrim, Henrik; Frisch, Morten; Bager, Peter

    2017-03-25

    Few studies have addressed the possible association between age at menarche and multiple sclerosis (MS), and results are conflicting. We studied this issue in a large prospective cohort study. The study cohort comprised 77,330 women included in the Danish National Birth Cohort (1996-2002). Information on menarcheal age was ascertained at the first interview, which took place in the 16th week of pregnancy. Women were followed for MS from the first interview to December 31, 2011. Associations between age at menarche and risk of MS were evaluated with hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Overall, 226 women developed MS during an average follow-up period of 11.7 years. Age at menarche among women with MS was generally lower than that among women without MS (Wilcoxon rank-sum test; P = 0.002). We observed an inverse association between age at menarche and MS risk. For each 1-year increase in age at menarche, risk of MS was reduced by 13% (hazard ratio = 0.87, 95% confidence interval: 0.79, 0.96). Early age at menarche appears to be associated with an increased risk of MS. The mechanisms behind this association remain to be established.

  8. 2010 SSS Presidential Address: The Devolution of Risk and the Changing Life Course in the United States

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Rand, Angela M.

    2011-01-01

    Recent patterns of labor exit in late life in the United States are increasingly heterogeneous. This heterogeneity stems from diverse employment careers that are emerging in the workplace where job security is declining. Individuals' structural locations in the labor market expose them to diverse risks for employment and income security at older…

  9. Addressing excess risk of overdose among recently incarcerated people in the USA: harm reduction interventions in correctional settings.

    PubMed

    Brinkley-Rubinstein, Lauren; Cloud, David H; Davis, Chelsea; Zaller, Nickolas; Delany-Brumsey, Ayesha; Pope, Leah; Martino, Sarah; Bouvier, Benjamin; Rich, Josiah

    2017-03-13

    Purpose The purpose of this paper is to discuss overdose among those with criminal justice experience and recommend harm reduction strategies to lessen overdose risk among this vulnerable population. Design/methodology/approach Strategies are needed to reduce overdose deaths among those with recent incarceration. Jails and prisons are at the epicenter of the opioid epidemic but are a largely untapped setting for implementing overdose education, risk assessment, medication assisted treatment, and naloxone distribution programs. Federal, state, and local plans commonly lack corrections as an ingredient in combating overdose. Harm reduction strategies are vital for reducing the risk of overdose in the post-release community. Findings Therefore, the authors recommend that the following be implemented in correctional settings: expansion of overdose education and naloxone programs; establishment of comprehensive medication assisted treatment programs as standard of care; development of corrections-specific overdose risk assessment tools; and increased collaboration between corrections entities and community-based organizations. Originality/value In this policy brief the authors provide recommendations for implementing harm reduction approaches in criminal justice settings. Adoption of these strategies could reduce the number of overdoses among those with recent criminal justice involvement.

  10. Data Safety Monitoring Boards and Other Study Methodologies that Address Subject Safety in "High-Risk" Therapeutic Trials in Youths

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carandang, Carlo; Santor, Darcy; Gardner, David M.; Carrey, Normand; Kutcher, Stan

    2007-01-01

    The underlying proposition for any experimental/therapeutic trial is the uncertainty that the risks of treatment will be outweighed by its benefits. For some therapeutic interventions (e.g., exercise programs, vitamin supplementation), the potential for treatment-emergent adverse events may prima facie be low or negligible, whereas for others…

  11. Development and validation of risk profiles of West African rural communities facing multiple natural hazards.

    PubMed

    Asare-Kyei, Daniel; Renaud, Fabrice G; Kloos, Julia; Walz, Yvonne; Rhyner, Jakob

    2017-01-01

    West Africa has been described as a hotspot of climate change. The reliance on rain-fed agriculture by over 65% of the population means that vulnerability to climatic hazards such as droughts, rainstorms and floods will continue. Yet, the vulnerability and risk levels faced by different rural social-ecological systems (SES) affected by multiple hazards are poorly understood. To fill this gap, this study quantifies risk and vulnerability of rural communities to drought and floods. Risk is assessed using an indicator-based approach. A stepwise methodology is followed that combines participatory approaches with statistical, remote sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop community level vulnerability indices in three watersheds (Dano, Burkina Faso; Dassari, Benin; Vea, Ghana). The results show varying levels of risk profiles across the three watersheds. Statistically significant high levels of mean risk in the Dano area of Burkina Faso are found whilst communities in the Dassari area of Benin show low mean risk. The high risk in the Dano area results from, among other factors, underlying high exposure to droughts and rainstorms, longer dry season duration, low caloric intake per capita, and poor local institutions. The study introduces the concept of community impact score (CIS) to validate the indicator-based risk and vulnerability modelling. The CIS measures the cumulative impact of the occurrence of multiple hazards over five years. 65.3% of the variance in observed impact of hazards/CIS was explained by the risk models and communities with high simulated disaster risk generally follow areas with high observed disaster impacts. Results from this study will help disaster managers to better understand disaster risk and develop appropriate, inclusive and well integrated mitigation and adaptation plans at the local level. It fulfills the increasing need to balance global/regional assessments with community level assessments where major decisions

  12. Comparison of Risk Predicted by Multiple Norovirus Dose-Response Models and Implications for Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Van Abel, Nicole; Schoen, Mary E; Kissel, John C; Meschke, J Scott

    2016-06-10

    The application of quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) to understand and mitigate risks associated with norovirus is increasingly common as there is a high frequency of outbreaks worldwide. A key component of QMRA is the dose-response analysis, which is the mathematical characterization of the association between dose and outcome. For Norovirus, multiple dose-response models are available that assume either a disaggregated or an aggregated intake dose. This work reviewed the dose-response models currently used in QMRA, and compared predicted risks from waterborne exposures (recreational and drinking) using all available dose-response models. The results found that the majority of published QMRAs of norovirus use the 1 F1 hypergeometric dose-response model with α = 0.04, β = 0.055. This dose-response model predicted relatively high risk estimates compared to other dose-response models for doses in the range of 1-1,000 genomic equivalent copies. The difference in predicted risk among dose-response models was largest for small doses, which has implications for drinking water QMRAs where the concentration of norovirus is low. Based on the review, a set of best practices was proposed to encourage the careful consideration and reporting of important assumptions in the selection and use of dose-response models in QMRA of norovirus. Finally, in the absence of one best norovirus dose-response model, multiple models should be used to provide a range of predicted outcomes for probability of infection.

  13. Addressing Disaster Risk Management and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Context of Sustainable Development in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Osman Elasha, B. M. E.

    2015-12-01

    The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) demonstrates that an extreme event which used to occur infrequently and perceived today as abnormal will be tomorrow's 'normal' weather. For example the drought events in the African Sahel which once came every decade could now come every couple of years bringing a new challenge and leading to severe disturbances and rapid environmental changes. The report identified and analyzed the problems associated with extreme climatic events, and examined how human responses to these events and the consequent disasters could contribute to adaptation objectives, and how adaptation to climate change could become better integrated with Disasters Risk Management (DRM) practices. Moreover, a number of studies explored the linkages and interactions between disasters and development and clearly demonstrates how the exposure to extremes and vulnerability to climate change can hinder development efforts, emphasizing the need for much smarter development and economic policies that consider managing disaster risk and implement adaptation measures as main components of sustainable development. The proposed presentation will provide an overview of findings from IPCC reports and other studies and will draw on existing experiences and lessons learned to explore the linkages between disaster risk management, adaptation and economic development in Africa. It will also shed light on some of the regional and global interventions which aim at mitigating the impacts of extremes and disasters in African countries characterized by high exposure & vulnerability and low adaptive capacity. It concludes by highlighting the need for broader cooperation and partnership between development partners and agencies working on disaster risk management & climate change adaptation including the private sector, bilateral and multilateral agencies in order to ensure sustainable development.

  14. Smoldering multiple myeloma risk factors for progression: a Danish population-based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Sørrig, Rasmus; Klausen, Tobias W; Salomo, Morten; Vangsted, Annette J; Østergaard, Brian; Gregersen, Henrik; Frølund, Ulf Christian; Andersen, Niels F; Helleberg, Carsten; Andersen, Kristian T; Pedersen, Robert S; Pedersen, Per; Abildgaard, Niels; Gimsing, Peter

    2016-09-01

    Several risk scores for disease progression in patients with smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) have been proposed; however, all have been developed using single-center registries. To examine risk factors for time to progression (TTP) to multiple myeloma (MM) for SMM, we analyzed a nationwide population-based cohort of 321 patients with newly diagnosed SMM registered within the Danish Multiple Myeloma Registry between 2005 and 2014. Significant univariable risk factors for TTP were selected for multivariable Cox regression analyses. We found that both an M-protein ≥30 g/L and immunoparesis significantly influenced TTP (HR 2.7, 95%CI (1.5;4.7), P = 0.001, and HR 3.3, 95%CI (1.4;7.8), P = 0.002, respectively). High free light chain (FLC) ratio did not significantly influence TTP in our cohort. Therefore, our data do not support recent IMWG proposal of identifying patients with FLC ratio above 100 as having ultra high-risk of transformation to MM. Using only immunoparesis and M-protein ≥30 g/L, we created a scoring system to identify low-, intermediate-, and high-risk SMM. This first population-based study of patients with SMM confirms that an M-protein ≥30 g/L and immunoparesis remain important risk factors for progression to MM.

  15. Comparative analysis of Multiple risks in the Western part of Georgia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsereteli, N.; Chelidze, T.; Varazanashvili, O.; Amiranashvili, A.

    2009-04-01

    Georgia is prone to catastrophes. In the last two decades, there have occurred the following natural disasters: (a) Avalanches in Svaneti and Khevsureti, (b) landslides in the mountainous Achara, floods, (c) hurricane and drought in West and East Georgia, (d) Racha earthquake of 1991 and (e) the Tbilisi Earthquake of 2002. These phenomena are very special both from ecological and from social-economical points of view. By the disaster risk index obtained by the UNDP, Georgia is similar to countries with medium and high level risk. Therefore, natural disasters in Georgia are considered as a negative factor in the development process of the country. This implies the necessity of more active actions by all possible means to reduce the risk of natural disasters at each level and maintain the sustainable economic development of the country, including good education at the universities and schools for real understanding of natural hazards. The main goal of the work here is the assessment of 12 widespread natural disasters and multiple risks for political districts in West Georgia. These natural disasters include earthquakes, landslides, avalanches, floods, mudflows, droughts, hurricanes, lightning, hail, glaze, freezes, mists. The research was based on the following steps: (a) Creation of electronic detailed databases of natural disasters that occurred in Georgia. These databases consist of the parameters of such hazardous phenomena class that caused natural disasters. (b) Quantitative investigation of energetic and spatial-time regularities of 12 natural disasters for the territory of Georgia. Estimation of people and environment (technosphere) vulnerability. (c) Elaboration of mathematical models and algorithms of disasters multiple risks taking into account the concrete conditions: (i) Sharing and generalization of gathered experience in the world. This allows more proper and wide comparison of the multiple risks of Caucasus countries; (ii) Taking into account the

  16. The contribution of emotionality and self-regulation to the understanding of children's response to multiple risk.

    PubMed

    Lengua, Liliana J

    2002-01-01

    This study investigated the additive and interactive effects of multiple risk, emotionality, and self-regulation in predicting children's adjustment problems and positive adjustment using a community sample (N = 101) of children in third through fifth grades. Multiple measures of emotionality and self-regulation were used, including observational measures and mother and child report on questionnaires. Results indicated that questionnaire measures of emotionality and self-regulation predicted children's positive and negative adjustment over and above the effects of multiple risk, as well as resilience and vulnerability. Negative emotionality predicted adjustment problems, positive emotionality predicted positive adjustment, and self-regulation predicted both. In addition, observational measures of self-regulation moderated the association between multiple risk and adjustment such that children low in self-regulation were more vulnerable to multiple risk. The results suggest that emotionality and self-regulation operate as additional risk and protective factors in multiple-risk models.

  17. Pregnancy and the Use of Disease-Modifying Therapies in Patients with Multiple Sclerosis: Benefits versus Risks

    PubMed Central

    Altintas, Ayse; Al Jumah, Mohammed; Sahraian, Mohammadali; Alsharoqi, Issa; AlTahan, Abdurahman; Dahdaleh, Maurice; Deleu, Dirk; Fernandez, Oscar; Inshasi, Jihad; Karabudak, Rana; Taha, Karim; Totolyan, Natalia; Yamout, Bassem I.; Zakaria, Magd; Bohlega, Saeed

    2016-01-01

    The burden of multiple sclerosis (MS) in women of childbearing potential is increasing, with peak incidence around the age of 30 years, increasing incidence and prevalence, and growing female : male ratio. Guidelines recommend early use of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs), which are contraindicated or recommended with considerable caution, during pregnancy/breastfeeding. Many physicians are reluctant to prescribe them for a woman who is/is planning to be pregnant. Interferons are not absolutely contraindicated during pregnancy, since interferon-β appears to lack serious adverse effects in pregnancy, despite a warning in its labelling concerning risk of spontaneous abortion. Glatiramer acetate, natalizumab, and alemtuzumab also may not induce adverse pregnancy outcomes, although natalizumab may induce haematologic abnormalities in newborns. An accelerated elimination procedure is needed for teriflunomide if pregnancy occurs on treatment or if pregnancy is planned. Current evidence supports the contraindication for fingolimod during pregnancy; data on other DMTs remains limited. Increased relapse rates following withdrawal of some DMTs in pregnancy are concerning and require further research. The postpartum period brings increased risk of disease reactivation that needs to be carefully addressed through effective communication between treating physicians and mothers intending to breastfeed. We address the potential for use of the first- and second-line DMTs in pregnancy and lactation. PMID:28078140

  18. Screening for Future Cardiovascular Disease Using Age Alone Compared with Multiple Risk Factors and Age

    PubMed Central

    Wald, Nicholas J.; Simmonds, Mark; Morris, Joan K.

    2011-01-01

    Background Risk factors such as blood pressure and serum cholesterol are used, with age, in screening for future cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. The value of using these risk factors with age compared with using age alone is not known. We compared screening for future CVD events using age alone with screening using age and multiple risk factors based on regular Framingham risk assessments. Methods Ten-year CVD risk was estimated using Framingham risk equations in a hypothetical sample population of 500,000 people aged 0–89 years. Risk estimates were used to identify individuals who did and did not have a CVD event over a ten-year period. For screening using age alone (age screening) and screening using multiple risk factors and age (Framingham screening) we estimated the (i) detection rate (sensitivity); (ii) false–positive rate; (iii) proportion of CVD-free years of life lost in affected individuals with positive results (person-years detection rate); and (iv) cost per CVD-free life year gained from preventive treatment. Results Age screening using a cut-off of 55 years detected 86% of all first CVD events arising in the population every year and 72% of CVD-free years of life lost for a 24% false-positive rate; for five yearly Framingham screening the false-positive rate was 21% for the same 86% detection rate. The estimated cost per CVD-free year of life gained was £2,000 for age screening and £2,200 for Framingham screening if a Framingham screen costs £150 and the annual cost of preventive treatment is £200. Conclusion Age screening for future CVD events is simpler than Framingham screening with a similar screening performance and cost-effectiveness. It avoids blood tests and medical examinations. The advantages of age screening in the prevention of heart attack and stroke warrant considering its use in preference to multiple risk factor screening. PMID:21573224

  19. Multiple risk behaviour in adolescence and socio-economic status: findings from a UK birth cohort

    PubMed Central

    Kipping, Ruth R; Smith, Michèle; Hickman, Matthew; Campbell, Rona

    2015-01-01

    Background. Patterns of risk behaviour during teenage years may vary by socio-economic status (SES). We aimed to examine possible associations between individual and multiple risk behaviours and three measures of SES in mid-adolescence. Methods. The sample (n = 6406) comprised participants from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a UK birth cohort. Thirteen risk behaviours spanning sexual health, substance use, self-harm, vehicle-related injury, criminality and physical inactivity were assessed in mid-adolescence (age 15–16 years). Associations between three measures of SES (maternal education, household income and parental social class) and (i) individual risk behaviours and (ii) the total number of risk behaviours were examined. Results. For a one-category reduction in social class, maternal education or income, the odds of having a greater number of multiple risk behaviours increased by 22, 15 and 12%, respectively. At the individual level, there was evidence of a strong relationship with decreasing SES across all three measures of SES and criminality, car passenger risk, TV viewing, scooter risk, early sexual behaviour and weekly tobacco use but insufficient evidence of a relationship for physical inactivity, cycling without a helmet and illicit substance use. There was weak evidence of association between SES and hazardous drinking, self-harm, cannabis use and unprotected sex, but this was not consistent across the SES measures. Conclusion. The association between multiple risk behaviours and SES suggests that prevention strategies should apply the principal of proportionate universalism with a focus on more deprived populations, within a population-wide strategy, to prevent widening of social inequalities. PMID:24963150

  20. Multiple factors explain injury risk in adolescent elite athletes: applying a biopsychosocial perspective.

    PubMed

    von Rosen, Philip; Frohm, Anna; Kottorp, Anders; Fridén, Cecilia; Heijne, Annette

    2017-02-16

    Many risk factors for injury are presented in the literature, few of those are however consistent and the majority is associated with adult and not adolescent elite athletes. The aim was to identify risk factors for injury in adolescent elite athletes, by applying a biopsychosocial approach. A total of 496 adolescent elite athletes (age range 15-19), participating in 16 different sports, were monitored repeatedly over 52 weeks using a validated questionnaire about injuries, training exposure, sleep, stress, nutrition and competence-based self-esteem. Univariate and multiple cox regression analyses were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) for risk factors for first reported injury. The main finding was that an increase in training volume, training intensity and at the same time decreasing the sleep volume resulted in a higher risk for injury compared to no change in these variables (HR 2.25, 95% CI, 1.46-3.45, p<0.01), which was the strongest risk factor identified. In addition, an increase by one score of competence-based self-esteem increased the hazard for injury with 1.02 (HR 95% CI, 1.00-1.04, p=0.01). Based on the multiple cox regression analysis, an athlete having the identified risk factors (Risk Index, competence-based self-esteem), with an average competence-based self-esteem score, had more than a threefold increased risk for injury (HR 3.35), compared to an athlete with a low competence-based self-esteem and no change in sleep or training volume.. Our findings confirm injury occurrence as a result of multiple risk factors interacting in complex ways. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  1. Out on the town: an evaluation of brief motivational interventions to address the risks associated with problematic alcohol use.

    PubMed

    Sharp, Douglas; Atherton, Susie R

    2006-10-01

    Alcohol has long been identified as a significant contributory factor in crime and anti social behaviour, yet there is a dearth of effective treatment available for those individuals whose drinking contributes significantly to their criminality, and subsequently the health risks and the economic and wider social implications associated with it. The literature on treatment programmes is drawn almost exclusively from medical experience but indicates that brief interventions are at least as effective as more intensive programmes in reducing alcohol consumption in at-risk groups. This research was undertaken to evaluate projects based in the West Midlands, United Kingdom, providing brief motivational interventions to offenders arrested for offences where alcohol is identified as a significant contributory factor. The evaluation indicates that an arrest referral scheme as developed in the West Midlands can achieve good levels of identification and referral, acceptable attendance, retention rates, and effective outcomes in terms of attitude and behaviour change.

  2. Addressing the “Risk Environment” for Injection Drug Users: The Mysterious Case of the Missing Cop

    PubMed Central

    Burris, Scott; Blankenship, Kim M; Donoghoe, Martin; Sherman, Susan; Vernick, Jon S; Case, Patricia; Lazzarini, Zita; Koester, Stephen

    2004-01-01

    Ecological models of the determinants of health and the consequent importance of structural interventions have been widely accepted, but using these models in research and practice has been challenging. Examining the role of criminal law enforcement in the “risk environment” of injection drug users (IDUs) provides an opportunity to apply structural thinking to the health problems associated with drug use. This article reviews international evidence that laws and law enforcement practices influence IDU risk. It argues that more research is needed at four levels—laws; management of law enforcement agencies; knowledge, attitudes, beliefs, and practices of frontline officers; and attitudes and experiences of IDUs—and that such research can be the basis of interventions within law enforcement to enhance IDU health. PMID:15016246

  3. Addressing intravaginal practices in women with HIV and at-risk for HIV infection, a mixed methods pilot study

    PubMed Central

    Alcaide, Maria L; Rodriguez, Violeta J; Fischl, Margaret A; Jones, Deborah L; Weiss, Stephen M

    2017-01-01

    Intravaginal practices (IVPs), include intravaginal cleansing (cleansing the inside of the vagina) or intravaginal insertion of products for hygiene, health or sexuality reasons. IVPs are associated with adverse female health outcomes, development of bacterial vaginosis, HIV acquisition and transmission. A mixed methods approach was used in this study to examine the prevalence of IVP, assess reasons for engagement, and perceptions of IVP among a sample of minority (African-American and Hispanic) women infected, or at-risk, for HIV in Miami, USA, a city with increasing numbers of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and HIV. Three focus groups (total n=20) and quantitative assessments (n=72) were conducted with women infected or uninfected with HIV. In the qualitative assessments, most women reported engaging in both intravaginal cleansing and intravaginal insertion, and stated the main motivation for IVP was hygiene. The quantitative assessments confirmed that cleansing with water alone, soap with water or using commercial douches was common, as well as intravaginal insertion using a cloth or a rag in both HIV-infected and uninfected women. Women with HIV infection reported less use of water and water and soap for IVPs, and reported learning about the potential harm of IVP from their HIV health care providers. Despite their health risks, IVP appeared common in both HIV-infected and at-risk minority women, and interventions to decrease IVP could have important health implications among populations with high rates of IVP, STIs and HIV. PMID:28280394

  4. Addressing intravaginal practices in women with HIV and at-risk for HIV infection, a mixed methods pilot study.

    PubMed

    Alcaide, Maria L; Rodriguez, Violeta J; Fischl, Margaret A; Jones, Deborah L; Weiss, Stephen M

    2017-01-01

    Intravaginal practices (IVPs), include intravaginal cleansing (cleansing the inside of the vagina) or intravaginal insertion of products for hygiene, health or sexuality reasons. IVPs are associated with adverse female health outcomes, development of bacterial vaginosis, HIV acquisition and transmission. A mixed methods approach was used in this study to examine the prevalence of IVP, assess reasons for engagement, and perceptions of IVP among a sample of minority (African-American and Hispanic) women infected, or at-risk, for HIV in Miami, USA, a city with increasing numbers of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and HIV. Three focus groups (total n=20) and quantitative assessments (n=72) were conducted with women infected or uninfected with HIV. In the qualitative assessments, most women reported engaging in both intravaginal cleansing and intravaginal insertion, and stated the main motivation for IVP was hygiene. The quantitative assessments confirmed that cleansing with water alone, soap with water or using commercial douches was common, as well as intravaginal insertion using a cloth or a rag in both HIV-infected and uninfected women. Women with HIV infection reported less use of water and water and soap for IVPs, and reported learning about the potential harm of IVP from their HIV health care providers. Despite their health risks, IVP appeared common in both HIV-infected and at-risk minority women, and interventions to decrease IVP could have important health implications among populations with high rates of IVP, STIs and HIV.

  5. Procedures for addressing uncertainty and variability in exposure to characterize potential health risk from trichloroethylene contaminated groundwater at Beale Air Force Base in California

    SciTech Connect

    Bogen, K T; Daniels, J I; Hall, L C

    1999-09-01

    This study was designed to accomplish two objectives. The first was to provide to the US Air Force and the regulatory community quantitative procedures that they might want to consider using for addressing uncertainty and variability in exposure to better characterize potential health risk. Such methods could be used at sites where populations may now or in the future be faced with using groundwater contaminated with low concentrations of the chemical trichloroethylene (TCE). The second was to illustrate and explain the application of these procedures with respect to available data for TCE in ground water beneath an inactive landfill site that is undergoing remediation at Beale Air Force Base in California. The results from this illustration provide more detail than the more traditional conservative deterministic, screening-level calculations of risk, also computed for purposes of comparison. Application of the procedures described in this report can lead to more reasonable and equitable risk-acceptability criteria for potentially exposed populations at specific sites.

  6. Human Health Risk Implications of Multiple Sources of Faecal Indicator Bacteria in a Recreational Waterbody

    EPA Science Inventory

    We evaluate the influence of multiple sources of faecal indicator bacteria in recreational water bodies on potential human health risk by considering waters impacted by human and animal sources, human and non-pathogenic sources, and animal and non-pathogenic sources. We illustrat...

  7. Mathematical Model for Addiction: Application to Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial Data for Smoking.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fan, David P.; Elketroussi, Mehdi

    1989-01-01

    Describes habituation and addiction, both psychological and physiological, using simple equations of mathematical model of ideodynamics, optimized to smoking data from Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial (MRFIT) program. With only four constant parameters, it was possible to calculate accurate time trends for recidivism to smoking among…

  8. USING DOSE ADDITION TO ESTIMATE CUMULATIVE RISKS FROM EXPOSURES TO MULTIPLE CHEMICALS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Food Quality Protection Act (FQPA) of 1996 requires the EPA to consider the cumulative risk from exposure to multiple chemicals that have a common mechanism of toxicity. Three methods, hazard index (HI), point-of-departure index (PODI), and toxicity equivalence factor (TEF), ...

  9. Effects of Comprehensive, Multiple High-Risk Behaviors Prevention Program on High School Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Collier, Crystal

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this mixed methods study was to examine the effect of a multiple high-risk behaviors prevention program applied comprehensively throughout an entire school-system involving universal, selective, and indicated levels of students at a local private high school during a 4-year period. The prevention program was created based upon the…

  10. Adolescent Non-Involvement in Multiple Risk Behaviors: An Indicator of Successful Development?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Willoughby, Teena; Chalmers, Heather; Busseri, Michael A.; Bosacki, Sandra; Dupont, Diane; Marini, Zopito; Rose-Krasnor, Linda; Sadava, Stan; Ward, Anthony; Woloshyn, Vera

    2007-01-01

    Based on the conceptualization of successful development as the joint maximization of desirable outcomes and minimization of undesirable outcomes (Baltes, 1997), the present study examined connections between adolescent non-involvement in multiple risk behaviors and positive developmental status. Results from a survey of 7290 high school students…

  11. Multiple Health Risk Behaviors in Adolescents: An Examination of Youth Risk Behavior Survey Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coleman, Casey; Wileyto, E. Paul; Lenhart, Clare M.; Patterson, Freda

    2014-01-01

    Background: Chronic disease risk factors tend to cooccur. Purpose: This study examined the cooccurrence of 8 negative health behaviors in a representative sample of urban adolescents to inform educational interventions. Methods: The prevalence, cooccurrence, and clustering of suicide attempt, lifetime history of sexual activity, tobacco use, cell…

  12. A Systematic Review of Effective Interventions for Reducing Multiple Health Risk Behaviors in Adolescence

    PubMed Central

    Fitzgerald-Yau, Natasha; Viner, Russell Mark

    2014-01-01

    We systematically searched 9 biomedical and social science databases (1980–2012) for primary and secondary interventions that prevented or reduced 2 or more adolescent health risk behaviors (tobacco use, alcohol use, illicit drug use, risky sexual behavior, aggressive acts). We identified 44 randomized controlled trials of universal or selective interventions and were effective for multiple health risk behaviors. Most were school based, conducted in the United States, and effective for multiple forms of substance use. Effects were small, in line with findings for other universal prevention programs. In some studies, effects for more than 1 health risk behavior only emerged at long-term follow-up. Integrated prevention programs are feasible and effective and may be more efficient than discrete prevention strategies. PMID:24625172

  13. Diagnostic x-ray procedures and risk of leukemia, lymphoma, and multiple myeloma

    SciTech Connect

    Boice, J.D. Jr.; Morin, M.M.; Glass, A.G.; Friedman, G.D.; Stovall, M.; Hoover, R.N.; Fraumeni, J.F. Jr. )

    1991-03-13

    Exposure to diagnostic x-rays and the risk of leukemia, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL), and multiple myeloma were studied within two prepaid health plans. Adult patients with leukemia (n = 565), NHL (n = 318), and multiple myeloma (n = 208) were matched to controls (n = 1390), and over 25,000 x-ray procedures were abstracted from medical records. Dose response was evaluated by assigning each x-ray procedure a score based on estimated bone marrow dose. X-ray exposure was not associated with chronic lymphocytic leukemia, one of the few malignant conditions never linked to radiation (relative risk (RR), 0.66). For all other forms of leukemia combined (n = 358), there was a slight elevation in risk (RR, 1.17) but no evidence of a dose-response relationship when x-ray procedures near the time of diagnosis were excluded. Similarly, patients with NHL were exposed to diagnostic x-ray procedures more often than controls (RR, 1.32), but the RR fell to 0.99 when the exposure to diagnostic x-ray procedures within 2 years of diagnosis was ignored. For multiple myeloma, overall risk was not significantly high (RR, 1.14), but there was consistent evidence of increasing risk with increasing numbers of diagnostic x-ray procedures. These data suggest that persons with leukemia and NHL undergo x-ray procedures frequently just prior to diagnosis for conditions related to the development or natural history of their disease. There was little evidence that diagnostic x-ray procedures were causally associated with leukemia or NHL. The risk for multiple myeloma, however, was increased among those patients who were frequently exposed to x-rays.

  14. Role of socio-economic and reproductive factors in the risk of multiple sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Magyari, M

    2015-01-01

    The incidence of multiple sclerosis is increasing in Danish women. Their risk of developing multiple sclerosis has more than doubled in 25 years while it has remained virtually unchanged for men. The explanation for these epidemiological changes should be sought in the environment as they are too rapid to be explained by gene alterations. We investigated the effect of numerous biological social physical and chemical environmental exposures in different periods of life. These data were available from population-based registries and were used in a case-control approach. This study database included all multiple sclerosis cases (n = 1403) from the Danish MS Registry with clinical onset between 2000 and 2004 as well as 35,045 controls drawn by random from the Danish Civil Registration System and matched by sex year of birth and residential municipality at the reference year. Having newborn children reduced the risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) in women but not in men. Childbirths reduced the risk of MS by about 46% during the following 5 years. Even pregnancies terminated early had a protective effect on the risk of developing MS suggesting a temporary immunosuppression during pregnancy. Our data on social behaviour regarding educational level income and relationship stability did not indicate reverse causality. A greater likelihood to be exposed to common infections did not show any effect on the risk of MS neither in puberty nor in adulthood. Socio-economic status and lifestyle expressed in educational level and sanitary conditions in youth were not associated with the risk of MS.

  15. Uncovering Clinical Principles and Techniques to Address Minority Stress, Mental Health, and Related Health Risks Among Gay and Bisexual Men

    PubMed Central

    Pachankis, John E.

    2014-01-01

    Gay and bisexual men disproportionately experience depression, anxiety, and related health risks at least partially because of their exposure to sexual minority stress. This paper describes the adaptation of an evidence-based intervention capable of targeting the psychosocial pathways through which minority stress operates. Interviews with key stakeholders, including gay and bisexual men with depression and anxiety and expert providers, suggested intervention principles and techniques for improving minority stress coping. These principles and techniques are consistent with general cognitive behavioral therapy approaches, the empirical tenets of minority stress theory, and professional guidelines for LGB-affirmative mental health practice. If found to be efficacious, the psychosocial intervention described here would be one of the first to improve the mental health of gay and bisexual men by targeting minority stress. PMID:25554721

  16. Young Children Living in Risky Circumstances. Addressing the Needs of At Risk Students during the Early Learning Years. Technical Team Report. Submitted to the Commission for Students At Risk of School Failure.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maryland State Dept. of Education, Baltimore.

    This report addresses the conditions of at-risk children and builds a case for changing the odds so that they favor such children. The introduction summarizes nearly a decade of education reform efforts related to disadvantaged youth. It underscores the need to intervene early. Four subsequent sections: (1) describe the developmental…

  17. Addressing Burnout in Oncology: Why Cancer Care Clinicians Are At Risk, What Individuals Can Do, and How Organizations Can Respond.

    PubMed

    Hlubocky, Fay J; Back, Anthony L; Shanafelt, Tait D

    2016-01-01

    Despite their benevolent care of others, today, more than ever, the cancer care professional who experiences overwhelming feelings of exhaustion, cynicism, and inefficacy is in grave jeopardy of developing burnout. Clinicians are repeatedly physically and emotionally exposed to exceedingly long hours in direct care with seriously ill patients/families, limited autonomy over daily responsibilities, endless electronic documentation, and a shifting medical landscape. The physical and emotional well-being of the cancer care clinician is critical to the impact on quality care, patient satisfaction, and overall success of their organizations. The prevention of burnout as well as targeting established burnout need to be proactively addressed at the individual level and organizational level. In fact, confronting burnout and promoting wellness are the shared responsibility of both oncology clinicians and their organizations. From an individual perspective, oncology clinicians must be empowered to play a crucial role in enhancing their own wellness by identification of burnout symptoms in both themselves and their colleagues, learning resilience strategies (e.g., mindful self-compassion), and cultivating positive relationships with fellow clinician colleagues. At the organizational level, leadership must recognize the importance of oncology clinician well-being; engage leaders and physicians in collaborative action planning, improve overall practice environment, and provide institutional wellness resources to physicians. These effective individual and organizational interventions are crucial for the prevention and improvement of overall clinician wellness and must be widely and systematically integrated into oncology care.

  18. Global epigenetic screening technologies: a novel tool to address cancer health disparities in high-risk population groups.

    PubMed

    Guerrero-Preston, Rafael

    2008-12-01

    Racial, ethnic and class disparities in cancer incidence and mortality have been well documented. Disparities in the utilization of preventive, curative and treatment services among ethnic minorities have been reported. Screening can be effective at detecting cancer at treatable stages, but a large proportion of people at risk have not been screened or are not regularly screened, as recommended by the American Cancer Society's national guidelines. Early detection technologies have the potential of both influencing mortality from cancer, as well as enhancing primary prevention through detection and removal of lesions that could potentially develop into cancer. Cancer is an epigenetic disease characterized by the breakdown of DNA methylation and histones modification patterns. Epigenetic approaches may contribute to a reduction in cancer health disparities impacting early detection and increasing cancer treatment options. Epigenetic events represent important mechanism(s) by which gene function is selectively activated or inactivated, through genetic and non-genetic manifestations. Emerging evidence indicates that various epigenetic alterations, such as global histones modifications and DNA hypomethylation, common to most types of cancer, are modified by environmental exposures throughout the life course. A simple, easily explained and easy to understand non-invasive test, such as the DNA methylation index, that may screen for several cancer sites at once, may remove some of the existing barriers to cancer screening utilization, and contribute to the reduction of cancer disparities. Epigenetic approaches may also prove to be useful in identifying environmental and lifestyle factors that contribute to the prevalence of other chronic conditions in high risk populations, such as Puerto Rican populations in the United States and Puerto Rico.

  19. Addressing healthcare.

    PubMed

    Daly, Rich

    2013-02-11

    Though President Barack Obama has rarely made healthcare references in his State of the Union addresses, health policy experts are hoping he changes that strategy this year. "The question is: Will he say anything? You would hope that he would, given that that was the major issue he started his presidency with," says Dr. James Weinstein, left, of the Dartmouth-Hitchcock health system.

  20. Carfilzomib significantly improves the progression-free survival of high-risk patients in multiple myeloma

    PubMed Central

    Fonseca, Rafael; Siegel, David; Dimopoulos, Meletios A.; Špička, Ivan; Masszi, Tamás; Hájek, Roman; Rosiñol, Laura; Goranova-Marinova, Vesselina; Mihaylov, Georgi; Maisnar, Vladimír; Mateos, Maria-Victoria; Wang, Michael; Niesvizky, Ruben; Oriol, Albert; Jakubowiak, Andrzej; Minarik, Jiri; Palumbo, Antonio; Bensinger, William; Kukreti, Vishal; Ben-Yehuda, Dina; Stewart, A. Keith; Obreja, Mihaela; Moreau, Philippe

    2016-01-01

    The presence of certain high-risk cytogenetic abnormalities, such as translocations (4;14) and (14;16) and deletion (17p), are known to have a negative impact on survival in multiple myeloma (MM). The phase 3 study ASPIRE (N = 792) demonstrated that progression-free survival (PFS) was significantly improved with carfilzomib, lenalidomide, and dexamethasone (KRd), compared with lenalidomide and dexamethasone (Rd) in relapsed MM. This preplanned subgroup analysis of ASPIRE was conducted to evaluate KRd vs Rd by baseline cytogenetics according to fluorescence in situ hybridization. Of 417 patients with known cytogenetic risk status, 100 patients (24%) were categorized with high-risk cytogenetics (KRd, n = 48; Rd, n = 52) and 317 (76%) were categorized with standard-risk cytogenetics (KRd, n = 147; Rd, n = 170). For patients with high-risk cytogenetics, treatment with KRd resulted in a median PFS of 23.1 months, a 9-month improvement relative to treatment with Rd. For patients with standard-risk cytogenetics, treatment with KRd led to a 10-month improvement in median PFS vs Rd. The overall response rates for KRd vs Rd were 79.2% vs 59.6% (high-risk cytogenetics) and 91.2% vs 73.5% (standard-risk cytogenetics); approximately fivefold as many patients with high- or standard-risk cytogenetics achieved a complete response or better with KRd vs Rd (29.2% vs 5.8% and 38.1% vs 6.5%, respectively). KRd improved but did not abrogate the poor prognosis associated with high-risk cytogenetics. This regimen had a favorable benefit-risk profile in patients with relapsed MM, irrespective of cytogenetic risk status, and should be considered a standard of care in these patients. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT01080391. PMID:27439911

  1. Phase I Metabolic Genes and Risk of Lung Cancer: Multiple Polymorphisms and mRNA Expression

    PubMed Central

    Rotunno, Melissa; Yu, Kai; Lubin, Jay H.; Consonni, Dario; Pesatori, Angela C.; Goldstein, Alisa M.; Goldin, Lynn R.; Wacholder, Sholom; Burdette, Laurie; Chanock, Stephen J.; Bertazzi, Pier Alberto; Tucker, Margaret A.; Caporaso, Neil E.; Chatterjee, Nilanjan; Bergen, Andrew W.; Landi, Maria Teresa

    2009-01-01

    Polymorphisms in genes coding for enzymes that activate tobacco lung carcinogens may generate inter-individual differences in lung cancer risk. Previous studies had limited sample sizes, poor exposure characterization, and a few single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) tested in candidate genes. We analyzed 25 SNPs (some previously untested) in 2101 primary lung cancer cases and 2120 population controls from the Environment And Genetics in Lung cancer Etiology (EAGLE) study from six phase I metabolic genes, including cytochrome P450s, microsomal epoxide hydrolase, and myeloperoxidase. We evaluated the main genotype effects and genotype-smoking interactions in lung cancer risk overall and in the major histology subtypes. We tested the combined effect of multiple SNPs on lung cancer risk and on gene expression. Findings were prioritized based on significance thresholds and consistency across different analyses, and accounted for multiple testing and prior knowledge. Two haplotypes in EPHX1 were significantly associated with lung cancer risk in the overall population. In addition, CYP1B1 and CYP2A6 polymorphisms were inversely associated with adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma risk, respectively. Moreover, the association between CYP1A1 rs2606345 genotype and lung cancer was significantly modified by intensity of cigarette smoking, suggesting an underling dose-response mechanism. Finally, increasing number of variants at CYP1A1/A2 genes revealed significant protection in never smokers and risk in ever smokers. Results were supported by differential gene expression in non-tumor lung tissue samples with down-regulation of CYP1A1 in never smokers and up-regulation in smokers from CYP1A1/A2 SNPs. The significant haplotype associations emphasize that the effect of multiple SNPs may be important despite null single SNP-associations, and warrants consideration in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Our findings emphasize the necessity of post-GWAS fine mapping and

  2. Addressing the Intersection of HIV and Intimate Partner Violence Among Women with or at Risk for HIV in the United States.

    PubMed

    McCree, Donna Hubbard; Koenig, Linda J; Basile, Kathleen C; Fowler, Dawnovise; Green, Yvonne

    2015-05-01

    In 2012, the White House established a working group in recognition of the need to understand and address the intersection of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and violence against women and girls. This report describes the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)'s efforts for addressing intimate partner violence and HIV among women and provides suggestions for future prevention efforts. CDC's current efforts are focused on understanding these often co-occurring public health problems, identifying effective interventions, and ensuring that states and communities have the capacity and resources to implement prevention approaches based on the best available evidence. Additional research is needed on effective strategies for integrating violence prevention and HIV programming into health services targeting adolescent girls and women who experience intimate partner violence or are at risk for HIV.

  3. Association of Multiple Behavioral Risk Factors with Adolescents’ Willingness to Engage in eHealth Promotion

    PubMed Central

    Abraham, Anisha A.; Graham, Amanda L.; Wilson, Lara D.; Walker, Leslie R.

    2009-01-01

    Objective This study examines adolescents’ willingness to use the internet and other forms of technology for health promotion purposes (i.e., “eHealth promotion” willingness) and determines if a relationship exists between adolescents’ behavioral risks and their eHealth promotion willingness. Methods A total of 332 adolescents provided data at a routine medical check-up, including assessments of technology access, eHealth promotion willingness, and multiple behavioral risk factors for child- and adult-onset disease (body mass index, physical activity, smoking, sun protection, depression). Results The level of access to technology among the sample was high, with moderate willingness to engage in eHealth promotion. After adjusting for adolescents’ access to technology, the presence of multiple behavioral risk factors was positively associated with willingness to use technology for health promotion purposes (β =.12, p =.03). Conclusions Adolescents with both single and multiple behavioral risk factors are in need of health promotion to prevent the onset of disease later in life. eHealth appears to be an acceptable and promising intervention approach with this population. PMID:18723566

  4. Shining India?: Assessing and addressing the risks from an unsustainable trajectory of climate, water, food, energy and income inequity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lall, U.

    2012-12-01

    Climate and demographics are primary drivers of regional resource sustainability. In today's global economy, increasing trade has provided a mechanism to alleviate regional stresses. However, increasing regional income promotes consumption, aggravating regional and global resource pressures. South Asia, has the highest population density at a sub-continent scale. Given its monsoonal climate, and high intensity of agriculture it faces perhaps the most severe population weighted water stress in the world. Rapidly declining groundwater tables and the associated high energy use for pumping for irrigated agriculture translate into unsustainable energy imports and expenditure that contributed to the two largest blackouts in global history in summer 2012. Access to water has been progressively declining for both rural and urban populations for the last 3 decades. The increasing energy imports and poor grid reliability translate into limits to the growth of manufacturing and exports of goods and services. The growing income inequity within the population and across national borders, and the impacts of floods and droughts on access to water, food and energy collectively suggest a very high risk for social unrest and a conflict flashpoint. I present a scenario analysis that establishes this case for the emergence of internal and external strife in the region as an outcome of the current resource and natural disaster management policies in the region. Prospects for strategic policy changes for water and energy management and the design of a food procurement and distribution system that could lead to a better future are discussed.

  5. Trajectories of Multiple Adolescent Health Risk Behaviors in a Low-Income African American Population

    PubMed Central

    Mustanski, Brian; Byck, Gayle R.; Dymnicki, Allison; Sterrett, Emma; Henry, David; Bolland, John

    2014-01-01

    This study examined interdependent trajectories of sexual risk, substance use, and conduct problems among 12–18 year-old African American youth who were followed annually as part of the Mobile Youth Study (MYS). We used growth-mixture modeling (GMM) to model the development of these three outcomes in the 1406 participants who met the inclusion criteria. Results indicate that there were four distinct classes: normative low risk (74.3% of sample); increasing high risk takers (11.9%); adolescent-limited conduct problems and drug risk with high risky sex (8.0%); and early experimenters (5.8%) The higher risk classes had higher rates of pregnancy and Sexually Transmitted Infections (STI) diagnoses than the normative sample at each of the ages we examined. Differing somewhat from our hypothesis, all of the non-normative classes exhibited high sexual risk behavior. While prevention efforts should be focused on addressing all three risk behaviors, the high rate of risky sexual behavior in the 25% of the sample that fall into the three non-normative classes, underscores an urgent need for improved sex education, including teen pregnancy and HIV/STI prevention, in this community. PMID:24229555

  6. Depression from childhood through adolescence: Risk mechanisms across multiple systems and levels of analysis

    PubMed Central

    Hankin, Benjamin L.

    2015-01-01

    This paper selectively reviews recent research, especially in the last two years (2012-2014) in preschool, child, and adolescent depression. In particular, attention is paid to developmental epidemiology as well as risk factors and processes that contribute to depression trajectories over time. Emphasis is placed on a developmental psychopathology perspective in which risks are instantiated across multiple systems and levels of analysis, including genetics, stress contexts and processes, biological stress mechanisms, temperament, emotion, reward, cognitive factors and processes, and interpersonal influences. These risks dynamically transact over time, as they emerge and stabilize into relatively trait-like vulnerabilities that confer risk for the increasing rates of depression observed in adolescence. Overall, this summary illustrates that considerable progress has been made recently in understanding the complex developmental processes contributing to depression. Finally, a few gaps are highlighted as opportunities for future research. PMID:25692174

  7. Space Radiation Risks for Astronauts on Multiple International Space Station Missions

    PubMed Central

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2014-01-01

    Mortality and morbidity risks from space radiation exposure are an important concern for astronauts participating in International Space Station (ISS) missions. NASA’s radiation limits set a 3% cancer fatality probability as the upper bound of acceptable risk and considers uncertainties in risk predictions using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) of the assessment. In addition to risk limitation, an important question arises as to the likelihood of a causal association between a crew-members’ radiation exposure in the past and a diagnosis of cancer. For the first time, we report on predictions of age and sex specific cancer risks, expected years of life-loss for specific diseases, and probability of causation (PC) at different post-mission times for participants in 1-year or multiple ISS missions. Risk projections with uncertainty estimates are within NASA acceptable radiation standards for mission lengths of 1-year or less for likely crew demographics. However, for solar minimum conditions upper 95% CL exceed 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) by 18 months or 24 months for females and males, respectively. Median PC and upper 95%-confidence intervals are found to exceed 50% for several cancers for participation in two or more ISS missions of 18 months or longer total duration near solar minimum, or for longer ISS missions at other phases of the solar cycle. However, current risk models only consider estimates of quantitative differences between high and low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. We also make predictions of risk and uncertainties that would result from an increase in tumor lethality for highly ionizing radiation reported in animal studies, and the additional risks from circulatory diseases. These additional concerns could further reduce the maximum duration of ISS missions within acceptable risk levels, and will require new knowledge to properly evaluate. PMID:24759903

  8. Space radiation risks for astronauts on multiple International Space Station missions.

    PubMed

    Cucinotta, Francis A

    2014-01-01

    Mortality and morbidity risks from space radiation exposure are an important concern for astronauts participating in International Space Station (ISS) missions. NASA's radiation limits set a 3% cancer fatality probability as the upper bound of acceptable risk and considers uncertainties in risk predictions using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) of the assessment. In addition to risk limitation, an important question arises as to the likelihood of a causal association between a crew-members' radiation exposure in the past and a diagnosis of cancer. For the first time, we report on predictions of age and sex specific cancer risks, expected years of life-loss for specific diseases, and probability of causation (PC) at different post-mission times for participants in 1-year or multiple ISS missions. Risk projections with uncertainty estimates are within NASA acceptable radiation standards for mission lengths of 1-year or less for likely crew demographics. However, for solar minimum conditions upper 95% CL exceed 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) by 18 months or 24 months for females and males, respectively. Median PC and upper 95%-confidence intervals are found to exceed 50% for several cancers for participation in two or more ISS missions of 18 months or longer total duration near solar minimum, or for longer ISS missions at other phases of the solar cycle. However, current risk models only consider estimates of quantitative differences between high and low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. We also make predictions of risk and uncertainties that would result from an increase in tumor lethality for highly ionizing radiation reported in animal studies, and the additional risks from circulatory diseases. These additional concerns could further reduce the maximum duration of ISS missions within acceptable risk levels, and will require new knowledge to properly evaluate.

  9. Salud Para Su Corazon (health for your heart) community health worker model: community and clinical approaches for addressing cardiovascular disease risk reduction in Hispanics/Latinos.

    PubMed

    Balcazar, H; Alvarado, M; Ortiz, G

    2011-01-01

    This article describes 6 Salud Para Su Corazon (SPSC) family of programs that have addressed cardiovascular disease risk reduction in Hispanic communities facilitated by community health workers (CHWs) or Promotores de Salud (PS). A synopsis of the programs illustrates the designs and methodological approaches that combine community-based participatory research for 2 types of settings: community and clinical. Examples are provided as to how CHWs can serve as agents of change in these settings. A description is presented of a sustainability framework for the SPSC family of programs. Finally, implications are summarized for utilizing the SPSC CHW/PS model to inform ambulatory care management and policy.

  10. Tenth Warren K. Sinclair keynote address-the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident and comprehensive health risk management.

    PubMed

    Yamashita, Shunichi

    2014-02-01

    Just two years have passed since the Tokyo Electric Power Company-Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accident, a multidimensional disaster that combined to destroy the local infrastructure on which the safety system depended and gave a serious impact to the world. Countermeasures including evacuation, sheltering, and control of the food chain were implemented in a timely manner by the Japanese government. However, there is a clear need for improvement, especially in the areas of nuclear safety and protection and also in the management of the radiation health risk during and even after the accident. To date there have been no acute radiation injuries. The radiation-related physical health consequences to the general public, including evacuees, are likely to be much lower than those arising from the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident, because the radiation fallout and the subsequent environmental contamination were much more limited. However, the social, psychological, and economic impacts of the Fukushima NPP accident are expected to be considerable. Currently, continued monitoring and characterization of the levels of radioactivity in the environment and foods in Fukushima are vital for obtaining informed consent to the decisions on living in the areas already radiocontaminated and returning back to the evacuated areas once re-entry is permitted; it is also important to perform a realistic assessment of the radiation doses on the basis of measurements. We are currently implementing the official plans of the Fukushima Health Management Survey, which includes a basic survey for the estimation of the external doses that were received during the first 4 mo after the accident and four more detailed surveys (thyroid ultrasound examination, comprehensive health check-up, mental health and life-style survey, and survey of pregnant women and nursing mothers), with the aim to take care of the health of all of the residents of the Fukushima Prefecture for a long time

  11. Keynote address

    SciTech Connect

    Cheney, D.

    1997-12-31

    March 10th is an anniversary date for Dick Cheney. Eight years ago today President Bush asked him to be his Secretary of Defense. He was his second choice. John Tower was his first. On March 17, 1989, Cheney was confirmed and sworn into the office of Secretary of Defense. He quickly began closing down his office on Capital Hill and he reported to work on March 18. Much changed for him that day, but not everything. He still had constituents. But instead of the residents of Wyoming, he represented the entire Armed forces of the United States of America. For this convention, he was asked to discuss the worldwide reserves and associated development risks, the risks and rewards in the US industry and 21st Century vision for energy within the US. He discusses the Halliburton view on the natural gas energy future, the US role, implications for a new business model, and political risk.

  12. Impact of Time-Varying Treatment Exposures on the Risk of Venous Thromboembolism in Multiple Myeloma

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Joshua D.; Adams, Val R.; Moga, Daniela C.

    2016-01-01

    Multiple myeloma (MM) has one of the highest risks of venous thromboembolism (VTE) of all cancers due to pathologic changes and treatment-related exposures. This study assessed the one-year incidence of VTE in newly diagnosed MM and to determine the baseline and time-varying treatment-related factors associated with VTE risk in a U.S.-based cohort. MM patients were identified and age, gender, and baseline comorbidities were determined. Treatment-related exposures included thalidomide derivatives (IMIDs), proteasome inhibitors, cytotoxic chemotherapy, steroids, erythropoietin-stimulating agents (ESAs), stem cell transplants (SCT), hospitalizations, infection, and central venous catheters (CVC). Multiple statistical models were used including a baseline competing risks model, a time-varying exposure Cox proportional hazard (CPH) model, and a case-time-control analysis. The overall incidence of VTE was 107.2 per 1000 person-years with one-half of the VTEs occurring in the first 90 days. The baseline model showed that increasing age, heart failure, and hypertension were associated with one-year incidence of VTE. MM-specific IMID treatment had lower than expected associations with VTE based on prior literature. Instead, exposure to ESAs, SCT, CVC, and infection had higher associations. Based on these results, VTE risk in MM may be less straightforward than considering only chemotherapy exposures, and other treatment-related exposures should be considered to determine patient risk. PMID:27999418

  13. Potential application of population models in the European ecological risk assessment of chemicals. II. Review of models and their potential to address environmental protection aims.

    PubMed

    Galic, Nika; Hommen, Udo; Baveco, J M Hans; van den Brink, Paul J

    2010-07-01

    Whereas current chemical risk assessment (RA) schemes within the European Union (EU) focus mainly on toxicity and bioaccumulation of chemicals in individual organisms, most protection goals aim at preserving populations of nontarget organisms rather than individuals. Ecological models are tools rarely recommended in official technical documents on RA of chemicals, but are widely used by researchers to assess risks to populations, communities and ecosystems. Their great advantage is the relatively straightforward integration of the sensitivity of species to chemicals, the mode of action and fate in the environment of toxicants, life-history traits of the species of concern, and landscape features. To promote the usage of ecological models in regulatory risk assessment, this study tries to establish whether existing, published ecological modeling studies have addressed or have the potential to address the protection aims and requirements of the chemical directives of the EU. We reviewed 148 publications, and evaluated and analyzed them in a database according to defined criteria. Published models were also classified in terms of 5 areas where their application would be most useful for chemical RA. All potential application areas are well represented in the published literature. Most models were developed to estimate population-level responses on the basis of individual effects, followed by recovery process assessment, both in individuals and at the level of metapopulations. We provide case studies for each of the proposed areas of ecological model application. The lack of clarity about protection goals in legislative documents made it impossible to establish a direct link between modeling studies and protection goals. Because most of the models reviewed here were not developed for regulatory risk assessment, there is great potential and a variety of ecological models in the published literature.

  14. An ImmunoChip study of multiple sclerosis risk in African Americans.

    PubMed

    Isobe, Noriko; Madireddy, Lohith; Khankhanian, Pouya; Matsushita, Takuya; Caillier, Stacy J; Moré, Jayaji M; Gourraud, Pierre-Antoine; McCauley, Jacob L; Beecham, Ashley H; Piccio, Laura; Herbert, Joseph; Khan, Omar; Cohen, Jeffrey; Stone, Lael; Santaniello, Adam; Cree, Bruce A C; Onengut-Gumuscu, Suna; Rich, Stephen S; Hauser, Stephen L; Sawcer, Stephen; Oksenberg, Jorge R

    2015-06-01

    The aims of this study were: (i) to determine to what degree multiple sclerosis-associated loci discovered in European populations also influence susceptibility in African Americans; (ii) to assess the extent to which the unique linkage disequilibrium patterns in African Americans can contribute to localizing the functionally relevant regions or genes; and (iii) to search for novel African American multiple sclerosis-associated loci. Using the ImmunoChip custom array we genotyped 803 African American cases with multiple sclerosis and 1516 African American control subjects at 130 135 autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms. We conducted association analysis with rigorous adjustments for population stratification and admixture. Of the 110 non-major histocompatibility complex multiple sclerosis-associated variants identified in Europeans, 96 passed stringent quality control in our African American data set and of these, >70% (69) showed over-representation of the same allele amongst cases, including 21 with nominally significant evidence for association (one-tailed test P < 0.05). At a further eight loci we found nominally significant association with an alternate correlated risk-tagging single nucleotide polymorphism from the same region. Outside the regions known to be associated in Europeans, we found seven potentially associated novel candidate multiple sclerosis variants (P < 10(-4)), one of which (rs2702180) also showed nominally significant evidence for association (one-tailed test P = 0.034) in an independent second cohort of 620 African American cases and 1565 control subjects. However, none of these novel associations reached genome-wide significance (combined P = 6.3 × 10(-5)). Our data demonstrate substantial overlap between African American and European multiple sclerosis variants, indicating common genetic contributions to multiple sclerosis risk.

  15. An ImmunoChip study of multiple sclerosis risk in African Americans

    PubMed Central

    Isobe, Noriko; Madireddy, Lohith; Khankhanian, Pouya; Matsushita, Takuya; Caillier, Stacy J.; Moré, Jayaji M.; Gourraud, Pierre-Antoine; McCauley, Jacob L.; Beecham, Ashley H.; Piccio, Laura; Herbert, Joseph; Khan, Omar; Cohen, Jeffrey; Stone, Lael; Santaniello, Adam; Cree, Bruce A. C.; Onengut-Gumuscu, Suna; Rich, Stephen S.; Hauser, Stephen L.; Sawcer, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    The aims of this study were: (i) to determine to what degree multiple sclerosis-associated loci discovered in European populations also influence susceptibility in African Americans; (ii) to assess the extent to which the unique linkage disequilibrium patterns in African Americans can contribute to localizing the functionally relevant regions or genes; and (iii) to search for novel African American multiple sclerosis-associated loci. Using the ImmunoChip custom array we genotyped 803 African American cases with multiple sclerosis and 1516 African American control subjects at 130 135 autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms. We conducted association analysis with rigorous adjustments for population stratification and admixture. Of the 110 non-major histocompatibility complex multiple sclerosis-associated variants identified in Europeans, 96 passed stringent quality control in our African American data set and of these, >70% (69) showed over-representation of the same allele amongst cases, including 21 with nominally significant evidence for association (one-tailed test P < 0.05). At a further eight loci we found nominally significant association with an alternate correlated risk-tagging single nucleotide polymorphism from the same region. Outside the regions known to be associated in Europeans, we found seven potentially associated novel candidate multiple sclerosis variants (P < 10−4), one of which (rs2702180) also showed nominally significant evidence for association (one-tailed test P = 0.034) in an independent second cohort of 620 African American cases and 1565 control subjects. However, none of these novel associations reached genome-wide significance (combined P = 6.3 × 10−5). Our data demonstrate substantial overlap between African American and European multiple sclerosis variants, indicating common genetic contributions to multiple sclerosis risk. PMID:25818868

  16. Examining relationships between multiple health risk behaviors, well-being, and productivity.

    PubMed

    Evers, Kerry E; Castle, Patricia H; Prochaska, James O; Prochaska, Janice M

    2014-06-01

    Traditionally, the concept of health promotion has emphasized the reduction of health risk behaviors to reduce disease and impairment. Well-being research expands this focus to include positive constructs such as thriving, productivity, life-evaluation, and emotional and physical health. The objective of the present study was to examine the relationships between health risk behaviors and specific measures of individual well-being. Participants (N = 790) from 49 states completed a one-time online assessment that included the Life-Evaluation Index, Emotional and Physical Health Ladders, the Health Risk Intervention Assessment, and the Work Productivity and Activity Improvement Questionnaire for General Health. Life Evaluation and physical and emotional health were all inversely related to the number of health risk behaviors, with higher well-being scores associated with lower number of risk behaviors. Across the three Life Evaluation categories (Suffering, Struggling, and Thriving) the number of health risk behaviors decreased, productivity loss decreased, and emotional and physical health increased. The results add to previous research on how reducing multiple health risk behaviors can be combined with well-being, i.e., an emphasis on increasing life-evaluation, emotional and physical health, better functioning, and productivity.

  17. Multiple risk behaviors and suicidal ideation and behavior among Israeli and Palestinian adolescents.

    PubMed

    Harel-Fisch, Yossi; Abdeen, Ziad; Walsh, Sophie D; Radwan, Qasrowi; Fogel-Grinvald, Haya

    2012-07-01

    Based conceptually on Problem Behavior Theory, Normalization Theory and theories of adolescent ethnic identity formation this study explores relationships between individual and cumulative multiple risk behaviors and suicidal ideation and behavior among mid-adolescents in three different populations in the Middle East. Data from the 2004 Health Behavior in School-Aged Children in the Middle-East (HBSC-ME) study included 8345 10th-grade pupils in three populations: Jewish Israelis (1770), Arab Israelis (2185), and Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank (4390). We considered risk behaviors and factors including tobacco use, bullying, medically-attended injuries, excessive time with friends, parental disconnectedness, negative school experience, truancy and poor academic performance. Substantial population differences for suicidal tendency and risk behaviors were observed, with notably high levels of suicidal ideation and behavior among Arab-Israeli youth and higher levels of risk behaviors among the Jewish and Arab-Israeli youth. For all populations suicidal tendency was at least 4 times higher among adolescents reporting 4+ risk behaviors, suggesting that similar psychosocial determinants affect patterns of risk behaviors and suicidal tendency. Results highlight the importance of understanding cultural contexts of risk behaviors and suicidal ideation and behavior.

  18. Dual task cost of walking is related to fall risk in persons with multiple sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Wajda, Douglas A; Motl, Robert W; Sosnoff, Jacob J

    2013-12-15

    Persons with multiple sclerosis (MS) commonly have walking and cognitive impairments. While walking with a simultaneous cognitive task, persons with MS experience a greater decline in walking performance than healthy controls. This change in performance is termed dual task cost or dual task interference and has been associated with fall risk in older adults. We examined whether dual task cost during walking was related to fall risk in persons with MS. Thirty-three ambulatory persons with MS performed walking tasks with and without a concurrent cognitive task (dual task condition) as well as underwent a fall risk assessment. Dual task cost was operationalized as the percent change in velocity from normal walking conditions to dual task walking conditions. Fall risk was quantified using the Physiological Profile Assessment. A Spearman correlation analysis revealed a significant positive correlation between dual task cost of walking velocity and fall risk as well as dual task cost of stride length and fall risk. Overall, the findings indicate that dual task cost is associated with fall risk and may be an important target for falls prevention strategies.

  19. Risk Governance of Multiple Natural Hazards: Centralized versus Decentralized Approach in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komendantova, Nadejda; Scolobig, Anna; Vinchon, Charlotte

    2014-05-01

    The multi-risk approach is a relatively new field and its definition includes the need to consider multiple hazards and vulnerabilities in their interdependency (Selva, 2013) and the current multi-hazards disasters, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and nuclear catastrophe, showed the need for a multi-risk approach in hazard mitigation and management. Our knowledge about multi-risk assessment, including studies from different scientific disciplines and developed assessment tools, is constantly growing (White et al., 2001). However, the link between scientific knowledge, its implementation and the results in terms of improved governance and decision-making have gained significantly less attention (IRGC, 2005; Kappes et al., 2012), even though the interest to risk governance, in general, has increased significantly during the last years (Verweiy and Thompson, 2006). Therefore, the key research question is how risk assessment is implemented and what is the potential for the implementation of a multi-risk approach in different governance systems across Europe. More precisely, how do the characteristics of risk governance, such as the degree of centralization versus decentralization, influence the implementation of a multi-risk approach. The methodology of this research includes comparative case study analysis of top-down and bottom-up interactions in governance in the city of Naples, (Italy), where the institutional landscape is marked by significant autonomy of Italian regions in decision-making processes for assessing the majority of natural risks, excluding volcanic, and in Guadeloupe, French West Indies, an overseas department of France, where the decision-making process is marked by greater centralization in decision making associated with a well established state governance within regions, delegated to the prefect and decentralised services of central ministries. The research design included documentary analysis and extensive empirical work involving

  20. Current understanding of multiple risk factors as the metabolic syndrome: distillation or deconstruction.

    PubMed

    Boden-Albala, Bernadette

    2006-02-01

    The "metabolic syndrome" is a new term that defines the clustering of vascular risk factors, such as hyperlipidemia, obesity, elevated blood pressure, and elevated blood glucose. Controversy exists regarding the use of the term, which raises the question of whether the unique grouping of vascular risk factors adds more clinical risk then the additive effect of multiple risk factors viewed as separate but important entities. Whatever the answer, the metabolic syndrome constitutes a major public health problem with over 47 million persons in the United States meeting criteria for the metabolic syndrome. Although studies have demonstrated that the metabolic syndrome is a risk factor for overall mortality as well as cardiovascular events, the relationship between the metabolic syndrome and ischemic stroke has not been well characterized. Two large cross-sectional studies report an association between metabolic syndrome and increased risk of a history of stroke. One large multiethnic prospective study found the metabolic syndrome to be significantly associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke after adjustment for sociodemographics and other cardiovascular risk factors. This study estimated that the metabolic syndrome may account for 19% of ischemic strokes including 30% of stroke in women and over 40% of stroke in Hispanics. Despite debate about the utility of its definition, there is evidence to suggest that the metabolic syndrome is an important risk factor for ischemic stroke, with differential effects by gender and race-ethnicity. Further, the metabolic syndrome has important clinical and public health implications by helping to easily identify individuals at greatest risk of vascular events.

  1. Use of multiple sex venues and prevalence of HIV risk behavior: identifying high risk MSM

    PubMed Central

    Kerr, Zachary Y.; Pollack, Lance M.; Woods, William J.; Blair, Johnny; Binson, Diane

    2014-01-01

    The National HIV/AIDS Strategy emphasizes the importance of bringing prevention to the most at-risk populations. Interventions targeting all men who have sex with men (MSM) fail in that respect because only a minority engages in behavior that is likely to lead to HIV infection. Previous studies have shown that MSM who seek male sexual partners in more than one venue type (e.g., bathhouse, cruising area, online) are most likely to engage in unprotected anal intercourse (UAI), compared to men who only meet partners in any one of these setting types or who do not use venues. The present study reports differences in prevalence of UAI among MSM by their use of venue sites to meet sexual partners. A probability sample of 459 bathhouse patrons completed exit surveys. In the three months before the current bathhouse visit, 63.5% visited a bathhouse (not including the visit at which they were recruited), 46.7% visited a cruising area, 46.5% used online cruise sites to find sex partners, and 30.9% reported UAI. While UAI was associated with online cruise site use, prevalence of UAI with men met online was relatively low. The odds of UAI among men who used all three venues was significantly higher compared to men using zero [Odds Ratio (OR)=4.4; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.6, 12.1)] one (OR=5.3; 95% CI: 2.2, 12.8) or two venues (OR=4.3; 95% CI: 1.9, 9.6). The findings suggest that prevention would benefit from screening for venue use to help identify men with the greatest behavioral risk. PMID:25245930

  2. Rimonabant: a cannabinoid receptor type 1 blocker for management of multiple cardiometabolic risk factors.

    PubMed

    Gelfand, Eli V; Cannon, Christopher P

    2006-05-16

    Rimonabant is a first selective blocker of the cannabinoid receptor type 1 (CB1) being developed for the treatment of multiple cardiometabolic risk factors, including abdominal obesity and smoking. In four large trials, after one year of treatment, rimonabant 20 mg led to greater weight loss and reduction in waist circumference compared with placebo. Therapy with rimonabant is also associated with favorable changes in serum lipid levels and an improvement in glycemic control in prediabetes patients and in type 2 diabetic patients. At the same dose, rimonabant significantly increased cigarette smoking quit rates as compared with placebo. Rimonabant seems to be well tolerated, with a primary side effect of mild nausea. As an agent with a novel mechanism of action, rimonabant has a potential to be a useful adjunct to lifestyle and behavior modification in treatment of multiple cardiometabolic risk factors, including abdominal obesity and smoking.

  3. The Healthy African American Families' risk communications initiative: using community partnered participatory research to address preterm birth at the local level.

    PubMed

    Jones, Loretta; Wright, Kynna; Wright, Aziza; Brown, Neysa Dillon; Broussard, Marsha; Hogan, Vijaya

    2010-01-01

    Preterm birth is the leading cause of infant death for African Americans and is significantly associated with lifelong morbidity. Primary prevention efforts using medical strategies to reduce the rates of preterm birth have been unsuccessful. Using community partnered participatory processes, the Healthy African American Families project in Los Angeles developed a multilevel, risk communications strategy to promote awareness about preterm birth in the local community. Participants included community members, community-based organizations, local government, healthcare providers, and national-level advocates. The initiative focused on increasing social support for pregnant women, providing current information on preterm birth risks, and improving quality of health services. The initiative includes components addressing community education, mass media, provider education, and community advocacy. Products include 100 Intentional Acts of Kindness toward a Pregnant Woman, a doorknob brochure on signs and symptoms of preterm labor, and an education manual on preterm birth and other African American health issues. Cooperation, affiliation, and community self-help were key aspects of the planning process and the health promotion products. Additional community benefits included increased leadership and skills development. The process and products described here may be useful in other communities and for addressing other health outcomes in communities of color.

  4. Multiple risk factor interventions for primary prevention of coronary heart disease

    PubMed Central

    Ebrahim, Shah; Beswick, Andrew; Burke, Margaret; Smith, George Davey

    2014-01-01

    Background Primary prevention programmes in many countries attempt to reduce mortality and morbidity due to coronary heart disease (CHD) through risk factor modification. It is widely believed that multiple risk factor intervention using counselling and educational methods is efficacious and cost-effective and should be expanded. Recent trials examining risk factor changes have cast considerable doubt on the effectiveness of these multiple risk factor interventions. Objectives To assess the effects of multiple risk factor intervention for reducing cardiovascular risk factors, total mortality, and mortality from CHD among adults without clinical evidence of established cardiovascular disease. Search strategy MEDLINE was searched for the original review to 1995. This was updated by searching the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials on The Cochrane Library Issue 3 2001, MEDLINE(2000 to September 2001) and EMBASE (1998 to September 2001). Selection criteria Intervention studies using counselling or education to modify more than one cardiovascular risk factor in adults from general populations, occupational groups, or high risk groups. Trials of less than 6 months duration were excluded. Data collection and analysis Data were extracted by two reviewers independently. Investigators were contacted to obtain missing information. Main results A total of 39 trials were found of which ten reported clinical event data. In the ten trials with clinical event end-points, the pooled odds ratios for total and CHD mortality were 0.96 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.92 to 1.01) and 0.96 (95% CI 0.89 to 1.04) respectively. Net changes in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and blood cholesterol were (weighted mean differences) −3.6 mmHg (95% CI −3.9 to −3.3 mmHg), −2.8 mmHg (95% CI −2.9 to −2.6 mmHg) and −0.07 mMol/l (95% CI −0.8 to −0.06 mMol/l) respectively. Odds of reduction in smoking prevalence was 20% (95% CI 8% to 31%). Statistical heterogeneity

  5. An analysis of content in comprehensive cancer control plans that address chronic hepatitis B and C virus infections as major risk factors for liver cancer.

    PubMed

    Momin, Behnoosh; Richardson, Lisa

    2012-08-01

    Chronic hepatitis B and hepatitis C virus (HBV and HCV) infections are among the leading causes of preventable death worldwide. Chronic viral hepatitis is the cause of most primary liver cancer, which is the third leading cause of cancer deaths globally and the ninth leading cause of cancer deaths in the United States. The extent to which comprehensive cancer control (CCC) programs in states, tribal governments and organizations, territories, and Pacific Island jurisdictions address chronic hepatitis B and/or hepatitis C infections as risk factors for liver cancer or recommend interventions for liver cancer prevention in their CCC plans remains unknown. We searched CCC plans for this information using the search tool at http://www.cdc.gov/cancer/ncccp/ to access the content of plans for this information. A combination of key search terms including "liver cancer", "hepatitis", "chronic alcohol", and "alcohol abuse" were used to identify potential content regarding liver cancer risk factors and prevention. Relevant content was abstracted for further review and classification. Of 66 (Although CDC funds 65 programs, one of the Pacific Island Jurisdiction grantees is the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM). This national program supports four FSM states, each of which submits a cancer plan to CDC for a total of 69 plans. During this time period, 66 plans were available on the website.) CCC plans, 27% (n = 18) addressed liver cancer using the above-mentioned search terms. In the 23 plans that addressed HBV and/or HCV, there were 25 goals, objectives, strategies, and outcomes aimed at reducing the incidence or prevalence of HBV and/or HCV infection. While nearly a third of CCC programs identify at least one goal, objective, strategy, outcome, or prevention program to reduce cancer burden in their CCC plans, few plans discuss specific actions needed to reduce the burden of liver cancer.

  6. Multiple sclerosis risk loci and disease severity in 7,125 individuals from 10 studies

    PubMed Central

    George, Michaela F.; Briggs, Farren B.S.; Shao, Xiaorong; Gianfrancesco, Milena A.; Kockum, Ingrid; Harbo, Hanne F.; Celius, Elisabeth G.; Bos, Steffan D.; Hedström, Anna; Shen, Ling; Bernstein, Allan; Alfredsson, Lars; Hillert, Jan; Olsson, Tomas; Patsopoulos, Nikolaos A.; De Jager, Philip L.; Oturai, Annette B.; Søndergaard, Helle B.; Sellebjerg, Finn; Sorensen, Per S.; Gomez, Refujia; Caillier, Stacy J.; Cree, Bruce A.C.; Oksenberg, Jorge R.; Hauser, Stephen L.; D'Alfonso, Sandra; Leone, Maurizio A.; Boneschi, Filippo Martinelli; Sorosina, Melissa; van der Mei, Ingrid; Taylor, Bruce V.; Zhou, Yuan; Schaefer, Catherine

    2016-01-01

    Objective: We investigated the association between 52 risk variants identified through genome-wide association studies and disease severity in multiple sclerosis (MS). Methods: Ten unique MS case data sets were analyzed. The Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) was calculated using the Expanded Disability Status Scale at study entry and disease duration. MSSS was considered as a continuous variable and as 2 dichotomous variables (median and extreme ends; MSSS of ≤5 vs >5 and MSSS of <2.5 vs ≥7.5, respectively). Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were examined individually and as both combined weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) and unweighted genetic risk score (GRS) for association with disease severity. Random-effects meta-analyses were conducted and adjusted for cohort, sex, age at onset, and HLA-DRB1*15:01. Results: A total of 7,125 MS cases were analyzed. The wGRS and GRS were not strongly associated with disease severity after accounting for cohort, sex, age at onset, and HLA-DRB1*15:01. After restricting analyses to cases with disease duration ≥10 years, associations were null (p value ≥0.05). No SNP was associated with disease severity after adjusting for multiple testing. Conclusions: The largest meta-analysis of established MS genetic risk variants and disease severity, to date, was performed. Results suggest that the investigated MS genetic risk variants are not associated with MSSS, even after controlling for potential confounders. Further research in large cohorts is needed to identify genetic determinants of disease severity using sensitive clinical and MRI measures, which are critical to understanding disease mechanisms and guiding development of effective treatments. PMID:27540591

  7. Modeling Freedom From Progression for Standard-Risk Medulloblastoma: A Mathematical Tumor Control Model With Multiple Modes of Failure

    SciTech Connect

    Brodin, N. Patrik; Vogelius, Ivan R.; Björk-Eriksson, Thomas; Munck af Rosenschöld, Per; Bentzen, Søren M.

    2013-10-01

    Purpose: As pediatric medulloblastoma (MB) is a relatively rare disease, it is important to extract the maximum information from trials and cohort studies. Here, a framework was developed for modeling tumor control with multiple modes of failure and time-to-progression for standard-risk MB, using published pattern of failure data. Methods and Materials: Outcome data for standard-risk MB published after 1990 with pattern of relapse information were used to fit a tumor control dose-response model addressing failures in both the high-dose boost volume and the elective craniospinal volume. Estimates of 5-year event-free survival from 2 large randomized MB trials were used to model the time-to-progression distribution. Uncertainty in freedom from progression (FFP) was estimated by Monte Carlo sampling over the statistical uncertainty in input data. Results: The estimated 5-year FFP (95% confidence intervals [CI]) for craniospinal doses of 15, 18, 24, and 36 Gy while maintaining 54 Gy to the posterior fossa was 77% (95% CI, 70%-81%), 78% (95% CI, 73%-81%), 79% (95% CI, 76%-82%), and 80% (95% CI, 77%-84%) respectively. The uncertainty in FFP was considerably larger for craniospinal doses below 18 Gy, reflecting the lack of data in the lower dose range. Conclusions: Estimates of tumor control and time-to-progression for standard-risk MB provides a data-driven setting for hypothesis generation or power calculations for prospective trials, taking the uncertainties into account. The presented methods can also be applied to incorporate further risk-stratification for example based on molecular biomarkers, when the necessary data become available.

  8. Management and Outcomes Among Chinese Hospitalized Patients With Established Cardiovascular Disease or Multiple Risk Factors.

    PubMed

    Yang, Jingang; Yang, Yuejin; Gu, Hongqiu; Li, Wei; Hu, Dayi

    2016-02-01

    We assessed the management and outcomes among hospitalized patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), stroke, peripheral artery disease (PAD), or with multiple (≥ 2) cardiovascular (CV) risk factors (multiple risk factors [MRFs]). We retrospectively studied 3732 hospitalized patients of either CV disease or ≥ 2 risk factors for atherothrombosis from October 2004 to January 2005. Outcomes included CV death, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and hospitalization for atherothrombotic events. About one-third had disease involving ≥ 1 vascular bed. Medication was more intense in patients with CAD than in others. The lowest use of statins and antiplatelet treatment was in the PAD-only group. Patients with PAD experienced a higher CV mortality (5.1%) than the patients with CAD (3.73%) or stroke (4.1%), P < .001. Cardiovascular death ranged from 1.2% for patients with MRFs, 2.8% for patients with 1-bed disease, 4.7% for patients with 2-bed disease to 6.4% for patients with 3-bed disease (P for trend <.001). For hospitalized patients with established atherosclerotic arterial disease, a substantial increase in CV event rates occurs with increasing numbers of affected arterial beds. Patients with PAD were at an especially high risk.

  9. Quantitative assessment of cumulative carcinogenic risk for multiple genotoxic impurities in a new drug substance.

    PubMed

    Bercu, Joel P; Hoffman, Wherly P; Lee, Cindy; Ness, Daniel K

    2008-08-01

    In pharmaceutical development, significant effort is made to minimize the carcinogenic potential of new drug substances (NDS). This involves appropriate genotoxicity and carcinogenicity testing of the NDS, and understanding the genotoxic potential of its impurities. Current available guidance recommends the use of the threshold of toxicological concern (TTC) for a single impurity where mutagenicity but no carcinogenicity information exists. Despite best efforts, the presence of more than one genotoxic impurity in an NDS may occur at trace levels. This paper repeats the analysis performed by others for a single genotoxic compound, but also uses statistical simulations to assess the impact on cancer risk for a mixture of genotoxic compounds. In summary, with the addition of multiple impurities all controlled to the TTC, an increase in cancer risk was observed. This increase is relatively small when considering the conservative assumptions of the TTC. If structurally similar compounds had an assumed strong correlation (+/-10-fold from the first randomly selected impurity) in cancer potency, the resulting cancer risk was not negatively impacted. Findings based on probabilistic analysis here can be very useful in making appropriate decisions about risk management of multiple genotoxic impurities measured in the final drug substance.

  10. Addressing the risk of inadequate and excessive micronutrient intakes: traditional versus new approaches to setting adequate and safe micronutrient levels in foods

    PubMed Central

    Bruins, Maaike J.; Mugambi, Gladys; Verkaik-Kloosterman, Janneke; Hoekstra, Jeljer; Kraemer, Klaus; Osendarp, Saskia; Melse-Boonstra, Alida; Gallagher, Alison M.; Verhagen, Hans

    2015-01-01

    Fortification of foods consumed by the general population or specific food products or supplements designed to be consumed by vulnerable target groups is amongst the strategies in developing countries to address micronutrient deficiencies. Any strategy aimed at dietary change needs careful consideration, ensuring the needs of at-risk subgroups are met whilst ensuring safety within the general population. This paper reviews the key principles of two main assessment approaches that may assist developing countries in deciding on effective and safe micronutrient levels in foods or special products designed to address micronutrient deficiencies, that is, the cut-point method and the stepwise approach to risk–benefit assessment. In the first approach, the goal is to shift population intake distributions such that intake prevalences below the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR) and above the Tolerable Upper Intake Level (UL) are both minimized. However, for some micronutrients like vitamin A and zinc, a narrow margin between the EAR and UL exists. Increasing their intakes through mass fortification may pose a dilemma; not permitting the UL to be exceeded provides assurance about the safety within the population but can potentially leave a proportion of the target population with unmet needs, or vice versa. Risk–benefit approaches assist in decision making at different micronutrient intake scenarios by balancing the magnitude of potential health benefits of reducing inadequate intakes against health risks of excessive intakes. Risk–benefit approaches consider different aspects of health risk including severity and number of people affected. This approach reduces the uncertainty for policy makers as compared to classic cut-point methods. PMID:25630617

  11. Risk of Premenopausal and Postmenopausal Breast Cancer among Multiple Sclerosis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Montgomery, Scott; Burkill, Sarah; Bahmanyar, Shahram

    2016-01-01

    Objective To investigate risk of premenopausal and postmenopausal breast cancer among Multiple Sclerosis (MS) patients, considering tumor stage. Methods The Swedish Patient Register identified 19,330 women with MS between 1968 and 2012, matched individually with a cohort of 193,458 without MS. Matching variables were year of birth, sex, region of residence and vital status at the time of diagnosis. The cancer register identified 471 and 5,753 breast cancer cases among the MS and non-MS cohorts, respectively. Cox proportional hazard models estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for premenopausal and postmenopausal breast cancer. Results Overall risk of postmenopausal breast cancer was 13% higher among MS patients compared with women without MS (HR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.02–1.26). Stratified analyses showed that the risk was statistically significantly increased in women diagnosed between 1968 and 1980 and those who were diagnosed at age 65 or older age. We observed a non-statistically significant risk only for stage 0–1 postmenopausal breast cancer (HR = 1.17, 95% CI 0.93–1.48). MS was not associated with premenopausal breast cancer. Conclusion The modest increased risk of postmenopausal breast cancer in women with MS may be due to surveillance bias, where contact with health services for one disease increases the risk of a second diagnosis being recorded. PMID:27776164

  12. Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Luxhoj, J. T.; Ancel, E.; Green, L. L.; Shih, A. T.; Jones, S. M.; Reveley, M. S.

    2014-01-01

    Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

  13. The quality and effectiveness of interventions that target multiple risk factors among young people: a systematic review

    PubMed Central

    Shakeshaft, Anthony; Havard, Alys; Maple, Myfanwy; Foley, Catherine; Shakeshaft, Bernie

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Objective: To identify evaluations of interventions that target multiple risk factors in high‐risk young people, describe their characteristics, critique their methodological quality and summarise their effectiveness. Methods: A search of the literature published between 2009 and 2014 identified 13 evaluations of interventions that targeted multiple risk factors, compared to 95 evaluations that targeted single risk factors. The methodological adequacy of the 13 evaluation studies was analysed using the Quality Assessment Tool for Quantitative Studies and information regarding characteristics and intervention effectiveness was extracted and summarised. Results: There were very few outcome evaluation studies of interventions that targeted multiple risk factors, relative to single risk factors, among high‐risk young people. Of the identified studies, half were methodologically weak. Interventions delivered in community settings targeted a greater number of risk factors, while those delivered in a school or health setting reported a higher proportion of statistically significant outcomes. No economic analyses were conducted. Conclusions and Implications for Public Health: More methodologically rigorous evaluations of interventions targeting multiple risk factors among high‐risk young people are required, especially for those delivered in community settings. Four key areas for improvement are: i) more precisely defining the risk factors experienced by high‐risk young people; ii) achieving greater consistency across interventions; iii) standardising outcome measures; and iv) conducting economic analyses. PMID:27624886

  14. Familial monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and multiple myeloma: epidemiology, risk factors, and biological characteristics.

    PubMed

    Greenberg, Alexandra J; Rajkumar, S Vincent; Vachon, Celine M

    2012-06-07

    Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS), a precursor to multiple myeloma (MM), is one of the most common premalignant conditions in the general population. The cause of MGUS is largely unknown. Recent studies show that there is an increased prevalence of MGUS in blood relatives of persons with lymphoproliferative and plasma cell proliferative disorders, suggesting presence of shared underlying genetic influences. In the past few years, additional studies have examined risk factors and biologic characteristics that may contribute to the increased prevalence of MGUS among relatives of probands with MGUS, MM, and other blood malignancies. This article reviews the known epidemiology and risk factors for familial MGUS and myeloma, the risk of lymphoproliferative disorders and other malignancies among blood-relatives of patients with MGUS and MM, and discusses future directions for research.

  15. Historical Perspective and Risk of Multiple Neglected Tropical Diseases in Coastal Tanzania: Compositional and Contextual Determinants of Disease Risk

    PubMed Central

    Armah, Frederick Ato; Quansah, Reginald; Luginaah, Isaac; Chuenpagdee, Ratana; Hambati, Herbert; Campbell, Gwyn

    2015-01-01

    Background In the past decade, research on neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has intensified in response to the need to enhance community participation in health delivery, establish monitoring and surveillance systems, and integrate existing disease-specific treatment programs to control overlapping NTD burdens and detrimental effects. In this paper, we evaluated the geographical distribution of NTDs in coastal Tanzania. Methods and Findings We also assessed the collective (compositional and contextual) factors that currently determine risks to multiple NTDs using a cross sectional survey of 1253 individuals in coastal Tanzania. The results show that the effect size in decreasing order of magnitude for non-binary predictors of NTD risks is as follows: NTD comorbidities > poverty > educational attainment > self-reported household quality of life > ethnicity. The multivariate analysis explained 95% of the variance in the relationship between NTD risks and the theoretically-relevant covariates. Compositional (biosocial and sociocultural) factors explained more variance at the neighbourhood level than at the regional level, whereas contextual factors, such as access to health services and household quality, in districts explained a large proportion of variance at the regional level but individually had modest statistical significance, demonstrating the complex interactions between compositional and contextual factors in generating NTD risks. Conclusions NTD risks were inequitably distributed over geographic space, which has several important policy implications. First, it suggests that localities of high burden of NTDs are likely to diminish within statistical averages at higher (regional or national) levels. Second, it indicates that curative or preventive interventions will become more efficient provided they can be focused on the localities, particularly as populations in these localities are likely to be burdened by several NTDs simultaneously, further increasing

  16. Multiple modifiable risk factors for first ischemic stroke: a population-based epidemiological study.

    PubMed

    Hadjiev, D I; Mineva, P P; Vukov, M I

    2003-09-01

    The aims of this epidemiological population-based cohort study were to examine the prevalence of the multiple modifiable vascular risk factors, their distribution patterns and outcomes among a Bulgarian urban population. A total of 500 volunteers, 200 men and 300 women, without clinical signs and symptoms of cerebrovascular disease, aged 50-79 years, were enrolled in the study. A structured questionnaire, physical examination, electrocardiogram records, a battery of laboratory tests and carotid duplex scanning were employed. Three or more modifiable vascular risk factors were detected in 52% (260/500) of the subjects. Dyslipidemias, hypertension, obesity, cigarette smoking and cardiac diseases were found to be the most prevalent single risk factors. Asymptomatic carotid stenosis (ACS) of 50% or greater was detected in 8.8% (23/260) of the volunteers examined. After a 2-year follow-up, 2.7% (7/260) of the persons with modifiable vascular risk factors reached the end point transient ischemic attacks (TIAs), ischemic stroke and myocardial infarction. The following combinations of risk factors among the subjects enrolled in the study were significantly associated with these outcomes: hypertension and cardiac diseases (OR = 6.82; 95% CI, 1.21-38.41), cardiac diseases and obesity (OR = 6.13; 95% CI, 1.27-29.72), ACS and high low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels (OR = 11.11; 95% CI, 1.58-78.29). The identification of subjects with multiple vascular risk factors may be important for primary medical or surgical stroke prevention.

  17. A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The assessment of climate change related risks is notoriously difficult due to the complex and uncertain combinations of hazardous events that might happen, the multiplicity of physical processes involved, the continuous changes and interactions of environmental and socio-economic systems. One important challenge lies in predicting and modelling cascades of natural and man -made hazard events which can be triggered by climate change, encompassing different spatial and temporal scales. Another regard the potentially difficult integration of environmental, social and economic disciplines in the multi-risk concept. Finally, the effective interaction between scientists and stakeholders is essential to ensure that multi-risk knowledge is translated into efficient adaptation and management strategies. The assessment is even more complex at the scale of deltaic systems which are particularly vulnerable to global environmental changes, due to the fragile equilibrium between the presence of valuable natural ecosystems and relevant economic activities. Improving our capacity to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surges, reduction in sediment load, local subsidence, saltwater intrusion) is therefore essential to identify timely opportunities for adaptation. A holistic multi-risk approach is here proposed to integrate terminology, metrics and methodologies from different research fields (i.e. environmental, social and economic sciences) thus creating shared knowledge areas to advance multi risk assessment and management in delta regions. A first testing of the approach, including the application of Bayesian network analysis for the assessment of impacts of climate change on key natural systems (e.g. wetlands, protected areas, beaches) and socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture, tourism), is applied in the Po river delta in Northern Italy. The approach is based on a bottom-up process involving local stakeholders early in different

  18. Mendelian randomization shows a causal effect of low vitamin D on multiple sclerosis risk

    PubMed Central

    Rhead, Brooke; Bäärnhielm, Maria; Gianfrancesco, Milena; Mok, Amanda; Shao, Xiaorong; Quach, Hong; Shen, Ling; Schaefer, Catherine; Link, Jenny; Gyllenberg, Alexandra; Hedström, Anna Karin; Olsson, Tomas; Hillert, Jan; Kockum, Ingrid; Glymour, M. Maria; Alfredsson, Lars

    2016-01-01

    Objective: We sought to estimate the causal effect of low serum 25(OH)D on multiple sclerosis (MS) susceptibility that is not confounded by environmental or lifestyle factors or subject to reverse causality. Methods: We conducted mendelian randomization (MR) analyses using an instrumental variable (IV) comprising 3 single nucleotide polymorphisms found to be associated with serum 25(OH)D levels at genome-wide significance. We analyzed the effect of the IV on MS risk and both age at onset and disease severity in 2 separate populations using logistic regression models that controlled for sex, year of birth, smoking, education, genetic ancestry, body mass index at age 18–20 years or in 20s, a weighted genetic risk score for 110 known MS-associated variants, and the presence of one or more HLA-DRB1*15:01 alleles. Results: Findings from MR analyses using the IV showed increasing levels of 25(OH)D are associated with a decreased risk of MS in both populations. In white, non-Hispanic members of Kaiser Permanente Northern California (1,056 MS cases and 9,015 controls), the odds ratio (OR) was 0.79 (p = 0.04, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.64–0.99). In members of a Swedish population from the Epidemiological Investigation of Multiple Sclerosis and Genes and Environment in Multiple Sclerosis MS case-control studies (6,335 cases and 5,762 controls), the OR was 0.86 (p = 0.03, 95% CI: 0.76–0.98). A meta-analysis of the 2 populations gave a combined OR of 0.85 (p = 0.003, 95% CI: 0.76–0.94). No association was observed for age at onset or disease severity. Conclusions: These results provide strong evidence that low serum 25(OH)D concentration is a cause of MS, independent of established risk factors. PMID:27652346

  19. Inaugural address

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joshi, P. S.

    2014-03-01

    From jets to cosmos to cosmic censorship P S Joshi Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Homi Bhabha Road, Colaba, Mumbai 400005, India E-mail: psj@tifr.res.in 1. Introduction At the outset, I should like to acknowledge that part of the title above, which tries to capture the main flavour of this meeting, and has been borrowed from one of the plenary talks at the conference. When we set out to make the programme for the conference, we thought of beginning with observations on the Universe, but then we certainly wanted to go further and address deeper questions, which were at the very foundations of our inquiry, and understanding on the nature and structure of the Universe. I believe, we succeeded to a good extent, and it is all here for you in the form of these Conference Proceedings, which have been aptly titled as 'Vishwa Mimansa', which could be possibly translated as 'Analysis of the Universe'! It is my great pleasure and privilege to welcome you all to the ICGC-2011 meeting at Goa. The International Conference on Gravitation and Cosmology (ICGC) series of meetings are being organized by the Indian Association for General Relativity and Gravitation (IAGRG), and the first such meeting was planned and conducted in Goa in 1987, with subsequent meetings taking place at a duration of about four years at various locations in India. So, it was thought appropriate to return to Goa to celebrate the 25 years of the ICGC meetings. The recollections from that first meeting have been recorded elsewhere here in these Proceedings. The research and teaching on gravitation and cosmology was initiated quite early in India, by V V Narlikar at the Banares Hindu University, and by N R Sen in Kolkata in the 1930s. In course of time, this activity grew and gained momentum, and in early 1969, at the felicitation held for the 60 years of V V Narlikar at a conference in Ahmedabad, P C Vaidya proposed the formation of the IAGRG society, with V V Narlikar being the first President. This

  20. Convocation address.

    PubMed

    Kakodkar, A

    1999-07-01

    This convocation addressed by Dr. Anil Kakodkar focuses on the challenges faced by graduating students. In his speech, he emphasized the high level of excellence achieved by the industrial sector; however, he noted that there has been a loss of initiative in maximizing value addition, which was worsened by an increasing population pressure. In facing a stiff competition in the external and domestic markets, it is imperative to maximize value addition within the country in a competitive manner and capture the highest possible market share. To achieve this, high-quality human resources are central. Likewise, family planning programs should become more effective and direct available resources toward national advantage. To boost the domestic market, he suggests the need to search for strengths to achieve leadership position in those areas. First, an insight into the relationship between the lifestyles and the needs of our people and the natural resource endowment must be gained. Second, remodeling of the education system must be undertaken to prepare the people for adding the necessary innovative content in our value addition activities. Lastly, Dr. Kakodkar emphasizes the significance of developing a strong bond between parents and children to provide a sound foundation and allow the education system to grow upon it.

  1. Risk of Second Primary Cancers in Multiple Myeloma Survivors in German and Swedish Cancer Registries.

    PubMed

    Chen, Tianhui; Fallah, Mahdi; Brenner, Hermann; Jansen, Lina; Mai, Elias K; Castro, Felipe A; Katalinic, Alexander; Emrich, Katharina; Holleczek, Bernd; Geiss, Karla; Eberle, Andrea; Sundquist, Kristina; Hemminki, Kari

    2016-02-24

    We aimed at investigating the distribution and risk of second primary cancers (SPCs) in multiple myeloma (MM) survivors in Germany and Sweden to provide etiological understanding of SPCs and insight into their incidence rates and recording practices. MM patients diagnosed in 1997-2010 at age ≥15 years were selected from the Swedish (nationwide) and 12 German cancer registries. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were used to assess risk of a specific SPC compared to risk of the same first cancer in the corresponding background population. Among 18,735 survivors of first MM in Germany and 7,560 in Sweden, overall 752 and 349 SPCs were recorded, respectively. Significantly elevated SIRs of specific SPCs were observed for acute myeloid leukemia (AML; SIR = 4.9) in Germany and for kidney cancer (2.3), AML (2.3) and nervous system cancer (1.9) in Sweden. Elevated risk for AML was more pronounced in the earlier diagnosis period compared to the later, i.e., 9.7 (4.2-19) for 1997-2003 period versus 3.5 (1.5-6.9) for 2004-2010 in Germany; 3.8 (1.4-8.3) for 1997-2003 versus 2.2 (0.3-7.8) for 2004-2010 in Sweden. We found elevated risk for AML for overall, early diagnosis periods and longer follow-up times in both populations, suggesting possible side effects of treatment for MM patients.

  2. Cancer risk estimation of genotoxic chemicals based on target dose and a multiplicative model

    SciTech Connect

    Granath, F.N. . Dept. of Mathematical Statistics Karolinska Inst., Stockholm . Dept. of Medical Epidemiology); Vaca, C.E. . Dept. of Radiobiology Casco Products AB, Stockholm ); Ehrenberg, L.G.; Toernqvist, M.A. )

    1999-04-01

    A mechanistic model and associated procedures are proposed for cancer risk assessment of genotoxic chemicals. As previously shown for ionizing radiation, a linear multiplicative model was found to be compatible with published experimental data for ethylene oxide, acrylamide, and butadiene. Concurrent analysis led to rejection of an additive model. A reanalysis of data for radiogenic cancer in mouse, dog and man shows that the relative risk coefficient is approximately the same for tumors induced in the three species. Doses in vivo, defined as the time-integrated concentrations of ultimate mutagens, expressed in millimol x kg[sup [minus]1] x h (mMh) are, like radiation doses given in Gy or rad, proportional to frequencies of potentially mutagenic events. The radiation dose equivalents of chemical doses are, calculated by multiplying chemical doses (in mMh) with the relative genotoxic potencies determined in vitro. In this way the relative cancer incidence increments in rats and mice exposed to ethylene oxide were shown to be about 0.4% per rad-equivalent, in agreement with the data for radiogenic cancer. The analyses suggest that values of the relative risk coefficients for genotoxic chemicals are independent of species and that relative cancer risks determined in animal tests apply also to humans. If reliable animal test data are not available, cancer risks may be estimated by the relative potency. In both cases exposure dose/target dose relationships, the latter via macromolecule adducts, should be determined.

  3. Population Heterogeneity in the Salience of Multiple Risk Factors for Adolescent Delinquency

    PubMed Central

    Lanza, Stephanie T.; Cooper, Brittany R.; Bray, Bethany C.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose To present mixture regression analysis as an alternative to more standard regression analysis for predicting adolescent delinquency. We demonstrate how mixture regression analysis allows for the identification of population subgroups defined by the salience of multiple risk factors. Methods We identified population subgroups (i.e., latent classes) of individuals based on their coefficients in a regression model predicting adolescent delinquency from eight previously established risk indices drawn from the community, school, family, peer, and individual levels. The study included N = 37,763 tenth-grade adolescents who participated in the Communities that Care Youth Survey. Standard, zero-inflated, and mixture Poisson and negative binomial regression models are considered. Results Standard and mixture negative binomial regression models are selected as optimal. The five-class regression model is interpreted based on the class-specific regression coefficients, indicating that risk factors have varying salience across classes of adolescents. Conclusions Standard regression shows that all risk factors are significantly associated with delinquency. Mixture regression provides more nuanced information, suggesting a unique set of risk factors that are salient for different subgroups of adolescents. Implications for the design of subgroup-specific interventions are discussed. PMID:24231260

  4. The residues and environmental risks of multiple veterinary antibiotics in animal faeces.

    PubMed

    Li, Yan-Xia; Zhang, Xue-Lian; Li, Wei; Lu, Xiao-Fei; Liu, Bei; Wang, Jing

    2013-03-01

    To understand the residues and ecological risks of veterinary antibiotics (VAs) in animal faeces from concentrated animal feeding operations in northeastern China, 14 VAs were identified by high performance liquid chromatography, and the preliminary risks of six antibiotics were assessed using the hazard quotient (HQ). The investigated VAs occurred in 7.41 to 57.41 % of the 54 samples, and the levels ranged from 0.08 to 56.81 mg kg(-1). Tetracyclines were predominant with a maximum level of 56.81 mg kg(-1) mostly detected in pig faeces. Sulfonamides were common and detected with the highest concentration of 7.11 mg kg(-1). Fluoroquinolones were more widely detected in chicken faeces rather than in pig or cow faeces, which contained the dominant antibiotic enrofloxacin. In comparison, the residue of tylosin was less frequently found. The risk evaluations of the six antibiotics revealed that tetracyclines, especially oxytetracycline, displayed the greatest ecological risk because of its high HQ value of 15.75. The results of this study imply that multiple kinds of VAs were jointly used in animal feeding processes in the study area. These medicine residues in animal faeces may potentially bring ecological risks if the animal manure is not treated effectively.

  5. On the Risk of Multiple Sclerosis According to Age at Immigration to South Africa*

    PubMed Central

    Dean, Geoffrey; Kurtzke, John F.

    1971-01-01

    In a national prevalence study of multiple sclerosis (M.S.) in the Republic of South Africa based on census day 1960 there were 118 individuals with M.S. who were born in Northern Europe (United Kingdom and other parts of North and Central Europe) and who had emigrated to the Republic by 1960. Their prevalence rate was 49 per 100,000 immigrants in comparison with a prevalence of 11 per 100,000 among native-born English-speaking white South Africans. To study the possible effect of age at immigration it was necessary to relate the M.S. immigrants to the appropriate denominator—the population at risk according to age at immigration. The population at risk by age at immigration has been estimated by two methods in an indirect fashion with the assistance of the Bureau of Census (1960) and by surveys of the population at risk 1968-9. Both studies suggest that the risk of developing M.S. was reduced to less than a third of the expected risk among those who immigrated under the age of 15 or 16. This study is further evidence that M.S. is an acquired exogenous disease, the precise nature of which is still not certain but, according to present knowledge, has as its leading contender the class of slow, latent, or temperate viruses. PMID:5097967

  6. Interleukin-6-related genotypes, body mass index, and risk of multiple myeloma and plasmacytoma.

    PubMed

    Cozen, Wendy; Gebregziabher, Mulugeta; Conti, David V; Van Den Berg, David J; Coetzee, Gerhard A; Wang, Sophia S; Rothman, Nathaniel; Bernstein, Leslie; Hartge, Patricia; Morhbacher, Ann; Coetzee, Simon G; Salam, Muhammad T; Wang, Wei; Zadnick, John; Ingles, Sue A

    2006-11-01

    Interleukin-6 (IL-6) promotes normal plasma cell development and proliferation of myeloma cells in culture. We evaluated IL-6 genotypes and body mass index (BMI) in a case-control study of multiple myeloma and plasmacytoma. DNA samples and questionnaires were obtained from incident cases of multiple myeloma (n = 134) and plasmacytoma (n = 16; plasma cell neoplasms) ascertained from the Los Angeles County population-based cancer registry and from siblings or cousins of cases (family controls, n = 112) and population controls (n = 126). Genotypes evaluated included IL-6 promoter gene single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) at positions -174, -572, and -597; one variable number of tandem repeats (-373 A(n)T(n)); and one SNP in the IL-6 receptor (IL-6ralpha) gene at position -358. The variant allele of the IL-6 promoter SNP -572 was associated with a roughly 2-fold increased risk of plasma cell neoplasms when cases were compared with family [odds ratio (OR), 1.8; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.7-4.7] or population controls (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.2-4.7). The -373 9A/9A genotype was associated with a decreased risk compared with the most common genotype (OR for cases versus family controls, 0.4; 95% CI, 0.1-1.7; OR for cases versus population controls, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.1-0.9). No other SNPs were associated with risk. Obesity (BMI >or= 30 kg/m(2)) increased risk nonsignificantly by 40% and 80% when cases were compared with family controls or population controls, respectively, relative to persons with a BMI of <25 kg/m(2). These results suggest that IL-6 promoter genotypes may be associated with increased risk of plasma cell neoplasms.

  7. Cumulative health risk assessment: integrated approaches for multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects

    SciTech Connect

    Rice, Glenn; Teuschler, Linda; MacDonel, Margaret; Butler, Jim; Finster, Molly; Hertzberg, Rick; Harou, Lynne

    2007-07-01

    Available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: As information about environmental contamination has increased in recent years, so has public interest in the combined effects of multiple contaminants. This interest has been highlighted by recent tragedies such as the World Trade Center disaster and hurricane Katrina. In fact, assessing multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects has long been an issue for contaminated sites, including U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) legacy waste sites. Local citizens have explicitly asked the federal government to account for cumulative risks, with contaminants moving offsite via groundwater flow, surface runoff, and air dispersal being a common emphasis. Multiple exposures range from ingestion and inhalation to dermal absorption and external gamma irradiation. Three types of concerns can lead to cumulative assessments: (1) specific sources or releases - e.g., industrial facilities or accidental discharges; (2) contaminant levels - in environmental media or human tissues; and (3) elevated rates of disease - e.g., asthma or cancer. The specific initiator frames the assessment strategy, including a determination of appropriate models to be used. Approaches are being developed to better integrate a variety of data, extending from environmental to internal co-location of contaminants and combined effects, to support more practical assessments of cumulative health risks. (authors)

  8. Opening Address

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamada, T.

    2014-12-01

    Ladies and Gentlemen, it is my great honor and pleasure to present an opening address of the 3rd International Workshop on "State of the Art in Nuclear Cluster Physics"(SOTANCP3). On the behalf of the organizing committee, I certainly welcome all your visits to KGU Kannai Media Center belonging to Kanto Gakuin University, and stay in Yokohama. In particular, to whom come from abroad more than 17 countries, I would appreciate your participations after long long trips from your homeland to Yokohama. The first international workshop on "State of the Art in Nuclear Cluster Physics", called SOTANCP, was held in Strasbourg, France, in 2008, and the second one was held in Brussels, Belgium, in 2010. Then the third workshop is now held in Yokohama. In this period, we had the traditional 10th cluster conference in Debrecen, Hungary, in 2012. Thus we have the traditional cluster conference and SOTANCP, one after another, every two years. This obviously shows our field of nuclear cluster physics is very active and flourishing. It is for the first time in about 10 years to hold the international workshop on nuclear cluster physics in Japan, because the last cluster conference held in Japan was in Nara in 2003, about 10 years ago. The president in Nara conference was Prof. K. Ikeda, and the chairpersons were Prof. H. Horiuchi and Prof. I. Tanihata. I think, quite a lot of persons in this room had participated at the Nara conference. Since then, about ten years passed. So, this workshop has profound significance for our Japanese colleagues. The subjects of this workshop are to discuss "the state of the art in nuclear cluster physics" and also discuss the prospect of this field. In a couple of years, we saw significant progresses of this field both in theory and in experiment, which have brought better and new understandings on the clustering aspects in stable and unstable nuclei. I think, the concept of clustering has been more important than ever. This is true also in the

  9. Presidential address.

    PubMed

    Vohra, U

    1993-07-01

    The Secretary of India's Ministry of Health and Family Welfare serves as Chair of the Executive Council of the International Institute for Population Sciences in Bombay. She addressed its 35th convocation in 1993. Global population stands at 5.43 billion and increases by about 90 million people each year. 84 million of these new people are born in developing countries. India contributes 17 million new people annually. The annual population growth rate in India is about 2%. Its population size will probably surpass 1 billion by the 2000. High population growth rates are a leading obstacle to socioeconomic development in developing countries. Governments of many developing countries recognize this problem and have expanded their family planning programs to stabilize population growth. Asian countries that have done so and have completed the fertility transition include China, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand. Burma, Malaysia, North Korea, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam have not yet completed the transition. Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Iran, Nepal, and Pakistan are half-way through the transition. High population growth rates put pressure on land by fragmenting finite land resources, increasing the number of landless laborers and unemployment, and by causing considerable rural-urban migration. All these factors bring about social stress and burden civic services. India has reduced its total fertility rate from 5.2 to 3.9 between 1971 and 1991. Some Indian states have already achieved replacement fertility. Considerable disparity in socioeconomic development exists among states and districts. For example, the states of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh have female literacy rates lower than 27%, while that for Kerala is 87%. Overall, infant mortality has fallen from 110 to 80 between 1981 and 1990. In Uttar Pradesh, it has fallen from 150 to 98, while it is at 17 in Kerala. India needs innovative approaches to increase contraceptive prevalence rates

  10. Systematic review of randomised controlled trials of multiple risk factor interventions for preventing coronary heart disease.

    PubMed Central

    Ebrahim, S.; Smith, G. D.

    1997-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the effectiveness of multiple risk factor intervention in reducing cardiovascular risk factors, total mortality, and mortality from coronary heart disease among adults. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials in workforces and in primary care in which subjects were randomly allocated to more than one of six interventions (stopping smoking, exercise, dietary advice, weight control, antihypertensive drugs, and cholesterol lowering drugs) and followed up for at least six months. SUBJECTS: Adults aged 17-73 years, 903000 person years of observation were included in nine trials with clinical event outcomes and 303000 person years in five trials with risk factor outcomes alone. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Changes in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, smoking rates, blood cholesterol concentrations, total mortality, and mortality from coronary heart disease. RESULTS: Net decreases in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, smoking prevalence, and blood cholesterol were 4.2 mm Hg (SE 0.19 mm Hg), 2.7 mm Hg (0.09 mm Hg), 4.2% (0.3%), and 0.14 mmol/l (0.01 mmol/l) respectively. In the nine trials with clinical event end points the pooled odds ratios for total and coronary heart disease mortality were 0.97 (95% confidence interval 0.92 to 1.02) and 0.96 (0.88 to 1.04) respectively. Statistical heterogeneity between the studies with respect to changes in mortality and risk factors was due to trials focusing on hypertensive participants and those using considerable amounts of drug treatment, with only these trials showing significant reductions in mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The pooled effects of multiple risk factor intervention on mortality were insignificant and a small, but potentially important, benefit of treatment (about a 10% reduction in mortality) may have been missed. Changes in risk factors were modest, were related to the amount of pharmacological treatment used, and in some cases may have been overestimated

  11. Multiple routes of drug administration and HIV risk among injecting drug users.

    PubMed

    Vorobjov, Sigrid; Uusküla, Anneli; Des Jarlais, Don C; Abel-Ollo, Katri; Talu, Ave; Rüütel, Kristi

    2012-06-01

    This study assesses relationships between drug administration routes and HIV serostatus, drug use, and sexual behaviors among current injecting drug users (IDUs) in Tallinn, Estonia. We recruited 350 IDUs for a cross-sectional risk behavior survey. Adjusted odds ratios (AORs) were calculated to explore injection risk behavior, sexual behavior, and HIV serostatus associated with multiple route use. Focus groups explored reasons why injectors might use non-injecting routes of administration. Those reporting multiple drug administration routes were less likely to be HIV seropositive (AOR = 0.49, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.25-0.97) and had almost twice the odds of having more than one sexual partner (AOR = 1.90, 95% CI = 1.01-3.60) and of reporting having sexually transmitted diseases (AOR = 2.38, 95% CI = 1.02-5.59). IDUs who engage in noninjecting drug use may be reducing their risk of acquiring HIV though sharing injection equipment, but if infected may be a critical group for sexual transmission of HIV to people who do not inject drugs.

  12. Heme Oxygenase-1 and 2 Common Genetic Variants and Risk for Multiple Sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Agúndez, José A G; García-Martín, Elena; Martínez, Carmen; Benito-León, Julián; Millán-Pascual, Jorge; Díaz-Sánchez, María; Calleja, Patricia; Pisa, Diana; Turpín-Fenoll, Laura; Alonso-Navarro, Hortensia; Pastor, Pau; Ortega-Cubero, Sara; Ayuso-Peralta, Lucía; Torrecillas, Dolores; García-Albea, Esteban; Plaza-Nieto, José Francisco; Jiménez-Jiménez, Félix Javier

    2016-02-12

    Several neurochemical, neuropathological, and experimental data suggest a possible role of oxidative stress in the ethiopathogenesis of multiple sclerosis(MS). Heme-oxygenases(HMOX) are an important defensive mechanism against oxidative stress, and HMOX1 is overexpressed in the brain and spinal cord of MS patients and in experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis(EAE). We analyzed whether common polymorphisms affecting the HMOX1 and HMOX2 genes are related with the risk to develop MS. We analyzed the distribution of genotypes and allelic frequencies of the HMOX1 rs2071746, HMOX1 rs2071747, HMOX2 rs2270363, and HMOX2 rs1051308 SNPs, as well as the presence of Copy number variations(CNVs) of these genes in 292 subjects MS and 533 healthy controls, using TaqMan assays. The frequencies of HMOX2 rs1051308AA genotype and HMOX2 rs1051308A and HMOX1 rs2071746A alleles were higher in MS patients than in controls, although only that of the SNP HMOX2 rs1051308 in men remained as significant after correction for multiple comparisons. None of the studied polymorphisms was related to the age at disease onset or with the MS phenotype. The present study suggests a weak association between HMOX2 rs1051308 polymorphism and the risk to develop MS in Spanish Caucasian men and a trend towards association between the HMOX1 rs2071746A and MS risk.

  13. Modeling multiple risks during infancy to predict quality of the caregiving environment: contributions of a person-centered approach.

    PubMed

    Lanza, Stephanie T; Rhoades, Brittany L; Greenberg, Mark T; Cox, Martha

    2011-06-01

    The primary goal of this study was to compare several variable-centered and person-centered methods for modeling multiple risk factors during infancy to predict the quality of caregiving environments at six months of age. Nine risk factors related to family demographics and maternal psychosocial risk, assessed when children were two months old, were explored in the understudied population of children born in low-income, non-urban communities in Pennsylvania and North Carolina (N = 1047). These risk factors were (1) single (unpartnered) parent status, (2) marital status, (3) mother's age at first child birth, (4) maternal education, (5) maternal reading ability, (6) poverty status, (7) residential crowding, (8) prenatal smoking exposure, and (9) maternal depression. We compared conclusions drawn using a bivariate approach, multiple regression analysis, the cumulative risk index, and latent class analysis (LCA). The risk classes derived using LCA provided a more intuitive summary of how multiple risks were organized within individuals as compared to the other methods. The five risk classes were: married low-risk; married low-income; cohabiting multiproblem; single low-income; and single low-income/education. The LCA findings illustrated how the association between particular family configurations and the infants' caregiving environment quality varied across race and site. Discussion focuses on the value of person-centered models of analysis to understand complexities of prediction of multiple risk factors.

  14. Welcome Address

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiku, H.

    2014-12-01

    Ladies and Gentlemen, It is an honor for me to present my welcome address in the 3rd International Workshop on "State of the Art in Nuclear Cluster Physics"(SOTANCP3), as the president of Kanto Gakuin University. Particularly to those from abroad more than 17 countries, I am very grateful for your participation after long long trips from your home to Yokohama. On the behalf of the Kanto Gakuin University, we certainly welcome your visit to our university and stay in Yokohama. First I would like to introduce Kanto Gakuin University briefly. Kanto Gakuin University, which is called KGU, traces its roots back to the Yokohama Baptist Seminary founded in 1884 in Yamate, Yokohama. The seminary's founder was Albert Arnold Bennett, alumnus of Brown University, who came to Japan from the United States to establish a theological seminary for cultivating and training Japanese missionaries. Now KGU is a major member of the Kanto Gakuin School Corporation, which is composed of two kindergartens, two primary schools, two junior high schools, two senior high schools as well as KGU. In this university, we have eight faculties with graduate school including Humanities, Economics, Law, Sciences and Engineering, Architecture and Environmental Design, Human and Environmental Studies, Nursing, and Law School. Over eleven thousands students are currently learning in our university. By the way, my major is the geotechnical engineering, and I belong to the faculty of Sciences and Engineering in my university. Prof. T. Yamada, here, is my colleague in the same faculty. I know that the nuclear physics is one of the most active academic fields in the world. In fact, about half of the participants, namely, more than 50 scientists, come from abroad in this conference. Moreover, I know that the nuclear physics is related to not only the other fundamental physics such as the elementary particle physics and astrophysics but also chemistry, medical sciences, medical cares, and radiation metrology

  15. Uncertainty squared: Choosing among multiple input probability distributions and interpreting multiple output probability distributions in Monte Carlo climate risk models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baer, P.; Mastrandrea, M.

    2006-12-01

    Simple probabilistic models which attempt to estimate likely transient temperature change from specified CO2 emissions scenarios must make assumptions about at least six uncertain aspects of the causal chain between emissions and temperature: current radiative forcing (including but not limited to aerosols), current land use emissions, carbon sinks, future non-CO2 forcing, ocean heat uptake, and climate sensitivity. Of these, multiple PDFs (probability density functions) have been published for the climate sensitivity, a couple for current forcing and ocean heat uptake, one for future non-CO2 forcing, and none for current land use emissions or carbon cycle uncertainty (which are interdependent). Different assumptions about these parameters, as well as different model structures, will lead to different estimates of likely temperature increase from the same emissions pathway. Thus policymakers will be faced with a range of temperature probability distributions for the same emissions scenarios, each described by a central tendency and spread. Because our conventional understanding of uncertainty and probability requires that a probabilistically defined variable of interest have only a single mean (or median, or modal) value and a well-defined spread, this "multidimensional" uncertainty defies straightforward utilization in policymaking. We suggest that there are no simple solutions to the questions raised. Crucially, we must dispel the notion that there is a "true" probability probabilities of this type are necessarily subjective, and reasonable people may disagree. Indeed, we suggest that what is at stake is precisely the question, what is it reasonable to believe, and to act as if we believe? As a preliminary suggestion, we demonstrate how the output of a simple probabilistic climate model might be evaluated regarding the reasonableness of the outputs it calculates with different input PDFs. We suggest further that where there is insufficient evidence to clearly

  16. Offshore finfish aquaculture in the United States: An examination of federal laws that could be used to address environmental and occupational public health risks.

    PubMed

    Fry, Jillian P; Love, David C; Shukla, Arunima; Lee, Ryan M

    2014-11-19

    Half of the world's edible seafood comes from aquaculture, and the United States (US) government is working to develop an offshore finfish aquaculture industry in federal waters. To date, US aquaculture has largely been regulated at the state level, and creating an offshore aquaculture industry will require the development of a new regulatory structure. Some aquaculture practices involve hazardous working conditions and the use of veterinary drugs, agrochemicals, and questionable farming methods, which could raise environmental and occupational public health concerns if these methods are employed in the offshore finfish industry in the US. This policy analysis aims to inform public health professionals and other stakeholders in the policy debate regarding how offshore finfish aquaculture should be regulated in the US to protect human health; previous policy analyses on this topic have focused on environmental impacts. We identified 20 federal laws related to offshore finfish aquaculture, including 11 that are relevant to preventing, controlling, or monitoring potential public health risks. Given the novelty of the industry in the US, myriad relevant laws, and jurisdictional issues in an offshore setting, federal agencies need to work collaboratively and transparently to ensure that a comprehensive and functional regulatory structure is established that addresses the potential public health risks associated with this type of food production.

  17. Offshore Finfish Aquaculture in the United States: An Examination of Federal Laws That Could be Used to Address Environmental and Occupational Public Health Risks

    PubMed Central

    Fry, Jillian P.; Love, David C.; Shukla, Arunima; Lee, Ryan M.

    2014-01-01

    Half of the world’s edible seafood comes from aquaculture, and the United States (US) government is working to develop an offshore finfish aquaculture industry in federal waters. To date, US aquaculture has largely been regulated at the state level, and creating an offshore aquaculture industry will require the development of a new regulatory structure. Some aquaculture practices involve hazardous working conditions and the use of veterinary drugs, agrochemicals, and questionable farming methods, which could raise environmental and occupational public health concerns if these methods are employed in the offshore finfish industry in the US. This policy analysis aims to inform public health professionals and other stakeholders in the policy debate regarding how offshore finfish aquaculture should be regulated in the US to protect human health; previous policy analyses on this topic have focused on environmental impacts. We identified 20 federal laws related to offshore finfish aquaculture, including 11 that are relevant to preventing, controlling, or monitoring potential public health risks. Given the novelty of the industry in the US, myriad relevant laws, and jurisdictional issues in an offshore setting, federal agencies need to work collaboratively and transparently to ensure that a comprehensive and functional regulatory structure is established that addresses the potential public health risks associated with this type of food production. PMID:25415208

  18. Balancing the benefits and risks of disease-modifying therapy in patients with multiple sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Sørensen, Per Soelberg

    2011-12-01

    Balancing efficacy versus burden of therapy is essential for the choice of disease-modifying therapy in every MS patient. The first-line therapies, interferon-? and glatiramer acetate, have well-established efficacy and present no major safety concerns. Certain second-line therapies, such as natalizumab, offer potentially greater efficacy, but are associated with an increased level of risk. Over the last year, the first two oral treatments of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, cladribine and fingolimod, have been marketed in certain countries, although cladribine was subsequently withdrawn. In the Phase III clinical development programme, both drugs appeared effective and reasonably safe. However, there were cases of serious adverse events (malignancies and fatal infections) whose relationship with treatment was unclear. Specific postmarketing studies will be necessary to assess the risks of these new oral therapies. Indeed, both natalizumab and mitoxantrone are known today to be associated with rare adverse drug reactions (progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy for natalizumab and treatment-related leukaemia for mitoxantrone), which were not identified before the treatments were approved. The use of therapies carrying potential serious risks is justified in patients who cannot be treated effectively with safe first-line therapies, but probably not in the average relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis or clinical isolated syndrome patient. Pivotal Phase III clinical trials, on which basis drug approval is generally granted, are designed to demonstrate clinical efficacy and reveal frequently occurring adverse effects of a new drug. However, post-approval trials with extensive patient exposure are needed to generate knowledge of more patient-specific clinical effectiveness and long-term safety, in particular with respect to rare adverse reactions. Other post-approval measures, such as risk management programmes, pharmacovigilance studies, or phased launch of

  19. A Risk Analysis Methodology to Address Human and Organizational Factors in Offshore Drilling Safety: With an Emphasis on Negative Pressure Test

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tabibzadeh, Maryam

    According to the final Presidential National Commission report on the BP Deepwater Horizon (DWH) blowout, there is need to "integrate more sophisticated risk assessment and risk management practices" in the oil industry. Reviewing the literature of the offshore drilling industry indicates that most of the developed risk analysis methodologies do not fully and more importantly, systematically address the contribution of Human and Organizational Factors (HOFs) in accident causation. This is while results of a comprehensive study, from 1988 to 2005, of more than 600 well-documented major failures in offshore structures show that approximately 80% of those failures were due to HOFs. In addition, lack of safety culture, as an issue related to HOFs, have been identified as a common contributing cause of many accidents in this industry. This dissertation introduces an integrated risk analysis methodology to systematically assess the critical role of human and organizational factors in offshore drilling safety. The proposed methodology in this research focuses on a specific procedure called Negative Pressure Test (NPT), as the primary method to ascertain well integrity during offshore drilling, and analyzes the contributing causes of misinterpreting such a critical test. In addition, the case study of the BP Deepwater Horizon accident and their conducted NPT is discussed. The risk analysis methodology in this dissertation consists of three different approaches and their integration constitutes the big picture of my whole methodology. The first approach is the comparative analysis of a "standard" NPT, which is proposed by the author, with the test conducted by the DWH crew. This analysis contributes to identifying the involved discrepancies between the two test procedures. The second approach is a conceptual risk assessment framework to analyze the causal factors of the identified mismatches in the previous step, as the main contributors of negative pressure test

  20. Multiple high-risk HPV genotypes are grouped by type and are associated with viral load and risk factors.

    PubMed

    Del Río-Ospina, L; Soto-DE León, S C; Camargo, M; Sánchez, R; Moreno-Pérez, D A; Pérez-Prados, A; Patarroyo, M E; Patarroyo, M A

    2017-02-10

    Investigating whether high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) types tend to become grouped in a particular way and whether factors are associated with such grouping is important for measuring the real impact of vaccination. In total, 219 women proving positive for HPV as detected by real-time PCR were included in the study. Each sample was analysed for detecting and quantifying six viral types and the hydroxymethylbilane synthase gene. Multiple correspondence analysis led to determining grouping patterns for six HR-HPV types and simultaneous association with multiple variables and whether viral load was related to the coexistence of other viral types. Two grouping profiles were identified: the first included HPV-16 and HPV-45 and the second profile was represented by HPV-31, HPV-33 and HPV-58. Variables such as origin, contraceptive method, births and pregnancies, educational level, healthcare affiliation regime, atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance and viral load were associated with these grouping profiles. Different socio-demographic characteristics were found when coinfection occurred by phylogenetically related HPV types and when coinfection was due to non-related types. Biological characteristics, the number of viral copies, temporality regarding acquiring infection and competition between viral types could influence the configuration of grouping patterns. Characteristics related to women and HPV, influence such interactions between coexisting HPV types reflecting the importance of their evaluation.

  1. Integrative assessment of multiple pesticides as risk factors for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma among men

    PubMed Central

    De Roos, A J; Zahm, S; Cantor, K; Weisenburger, D; Holmes, F; Burmeister, L; Blair, A

    2003-01-01

    Methods: During the 1980s, the National Cancer Institute conducted three case-control studies of NHL in the midwestern United States. These pooled data were used to examine pesticide exposures in farming as risk factors for NHL in men. The large sample size (n = 3417) allowed analysis of 47 pesticides simultaneously, controlling for potential confounding by other pesticides in the model, and adjusting the estimates based on a prespecified variance to make them more stable. Results: Reported use of several individual pesticides was associated with increased NHL incidence, including organophosphate insecticides coumaphos, diazinon, and fonofos, insecticides chlordane, dieldrin, and copper acetoarsenite, and herbicides atrazine, glyphosate, and sodium chlorate. A subanalysis of these "potentially carcinogenic" pesticides suggested a positive trend of risk with exposure to increasing numbers. Conclusion: Consideration of multiple exposures is important in accurately estimating specific effects and in evaluating realistic exposure scenarios. PMID:12937207

  2. Shoaling behaviour enhances risk of predation from multiple predator guilds in a marine fish.

    PubMed

    Ford, John R; Swearer, Stephen E

    2013-06-01

    Predicting the consequences of predator biodiversity loss on prey requires an understanding of multiple predator interactions. Predators are often assumed to have independent and additive effects on shared prey survival; however, multiple predator effects can be non-additive if predators foraging together reduce prey survival (risk enhancement) or increase prey survival through interference (risk reduction). In marine communities, juvenile reef fish experience very high mortality from two predator guilds with very different hunting modes and foraging domains-benthic and pelagic predator guilds. The few previous predator manipulation studies have found or assumed that mortality is independent and additive. We tested whether interacting predator guilds result in non-additive prey mortality and whether the detection of such effects change over time as prey are depleted. To do so, we examined the roles of benthic and pelagic predators on the survival of a juvenile shoaling zooplanktivorous temperate reef fish, Trachinops caudimaculatus, on artificial patch reefs over 2 months in Port Phillip Bay, Australia. We observed risk enhancement in the first 7 days, as shoaling behaviour placed prey between predator foraging domains with no effective refuge. At day 14 we observed additive mortality, and risk enhancement was no longer detectable. By days 28 and 62, pelagic predators were no longer significant sources of mortality and additivity was trivial. We hypothesize that declines in prey density led to reduced shoaling behaviour that brought prey more often into the domain of benthic predators, resulting in limited mortality from pelagic predators. Furthermore, pelagic predators may have spent less time patrolling reefs in response to declines in prey numbers. Our observation of the changing interaction between predators and prey has important implications for assessing the role of predation in regulating populations in complex communities.

  3. Diagnosis, risk stratification and management of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and smoldering multiple myeloma.

    PubMed

    van de Donk, N W C J; Mutis, T; Poddighe, P J; Lokhorst, H M; Zweegman, S

    2016-05-01

    Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) is one of the most common premalignant disorders. IgG and IgA MGUS are precursor conditions of multiple myeloma (MM), whereas light-chain MGUS is a precursor condition of light-chain MM. Smoldering MM (SMM) is a precursor condition with higher tumor burden and higher risk of progression to symptomatic MM compared to MGUS. Assessment of the risk of progression of patients with asymptomatic monoclonal gammopathies is based on various factors including clonal burden, as well as biological characteristics, such as cytogenetic abnormalities and light-chain production. Several models have been constructed that are useful in daily practice for predicting risk of progression of MGUS or SMM. Importantly, the plasma cell clone may occasionally be responsible for severe organ damage through the production of a M-protein which deposits in tissues or has autoantibody activity. These disorders are rare and often require therapy directed at eradication of the underlying clone. Importantly, recent studies have shown that asymptomatic patients with a bone marrow plasma cell percentage ≥60%, free light-chain ratio ≥100, or >1 focal lesion on MRI (myeloma-defining events) have a 80% risk of developing symptomatic MM within 2 years. These patients are now considered to have MM requiring therapy, similar to patients with symptomatic disease. In this review, we provide an overview of the new diagnostic criteria of the monoclonal gammopathies and discuss risk of progression to active MM. We also provide recommendations for the management of patients with MGUS and SMM including risk-adapted follow-up.

  4. Stride-Time Variability and Fall Risk in Persons with Multiple Sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Wajda, Douglas A.; Motl, Robert W.; Sosnoff, Jacob J.

    2015-01-01

    Gait variability is associated with falls in clinical populations. However, gait variability's link to falls in persons with Multiple Sclerosis (PwMS) is not well established. This investigation examined the relationship between stride-time variability, fall risk, and physiological fall risk factors in PwMS. 17 PwMS (62.8 ± 7.4 years) and 17 age-matched controls (62.8 ± 5.9 years) performed the 6-minute walk test. Stride-time was assessed with accelerometers attached to the participants' shanks. Stride-time variability was measured by interstride coefficient of variation (CV) of stride-time. The participant's fall risk was measured by the short form physiological profile assessment (PPA). A Spearman correlation analysis was used to determine the relationship between variables. Increased fall risk was strongly associated with increased stride-time CV in both PwMS (ρ = 0.71, p < 0.01) and the controls (ρ = 0.67, p < 0.01). Fall risk was not correlated with average stride-time (p > 0.05). In PwMS, stride-time CV was related to postural sway (ρ = 0.74, p < 0.01) while in the control group, it was related to proprioception (ρ = 0.61, p < 0.01) and postural sway (ρ = 0.78, p < 0.01). Current observations suggest that gait variability is maybe more sensitive marker of fall risk than average gait parameters in PwMS. It was also noted that postural sway may be potentially targeted to modify gait variability in PwMS. PMID:26843986

  5. Simulation-extrapolation method to address errors in atomic bomb survivor dosimetry on solid cancer and leukaemia mortality risk estimates, 1950-2003.

    PubMed

    Allodji, Rodrigue S; Schwartz, Boris; Diallo, Ibrahima; Agbovon, Césaire; Laurier, Dominique; de Vathaire, Florent

    2015-08-01

    Analyses of the Life Span Study (LSS) of Japanese atomic bombing survivors have routinely incorporated corrections for additive classical measurement errors using regression calibration. Recently, several studies reported that the efficiency of the simulation-extrapolation method (SIMEX) is slightly more accurate than the simple regression calibration method (RCAL). In the present paper, the SIMEX and RCAL methods have been used to address errors in atomic bomb survivor dosimetry on solid cancer and leukaemia mortality risk estimates. For instance, it is shown that using the SIMEX method, the ERR/Gy is increased by an amount of about 29 % for all solid cancer deaths using a linear model compared to the RCAL method, and the corrected EAR 10(-4) person-years at 1 Gy (the linear terms) is decreased by about 8 %, while the corrected quadratic term (EAR 10(-4) person-years/Gy(2)) is increased by about 65 % for leukaemia deaths based on a linear-quadratic model. The results with SIMEX method are slightly higher than published values. The observed differences were probably due to the fact that with the RCAL method the dosimetric data were partially corrected, while all doses were considered with the SIMEX method. Therefore, one should be careful when comparing the estimated risks and it may be useful to use several correction techniques in order to obtain a range of corrected estimates, rather than to rely on a single technique. This work will enable to improve the risk estimates derived from LSS data, and help to make more reliable the development of radiation protection standards.

  6. Multiple sclerosis, brain radiotherapy, and risk of neurotoxicity: The Mayo Clinic experience

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, Robert C. . E-mail: miller.robert@mayo.edu; Lachance, Daniel H.; Lucchinetti, Claudia F.; Keegan, B. Mark; Gavrilova, Ralitza H.; Brown, Paul D.; Weinshenker, Brian G.; Rodriguez, Moses

    2006-11-15

    Purpose: The aim of this study was a retrospective assessment of neurotoxicity in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) receiving external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) to the brain. Methods and Materials: We studied 15 consecutively treated patients with MS who received brain EBRT. Neurologic toxicity was assessed with the Common Toxicity Criteria v.3.0. Results: Median follow-up for the 5 living patients was 6.0 years (range, 3.3-27.4 years). No exacerbation of MS occurred in any patient during EBRT. Five patients had Grade 4 neurologic toxicity and 1 had possible Grade 5 toxicity. Kaplan-Meier estimated risk of neurotoxicity greater than Grade 4 at 5 years was 57% (95% confidence interval, 27%-82%). Toxicity occurred at 37.5 to 54.0 Gy at a median of 1.0 year (range, 0.2-4.3 years) after EBRT. Univariate analysis showed an association between opposed-field irradiation of the temporal lobes, central white matter, and brainstem and increased risk of neurotoxicity (p < 0.04). Three of 6 cases of toxicity occurred in patients treated before 1986. Conclusions: External beam radiotherapy of the brain in patients with MS may be associated with an increased risk of neurotoxicity compared with patients without demyelinating illnesses. However, this risk is associated with treatment techniques that may not be comparable to modern, conformal radiotherapy.

  7. Human Epistatic Interaction Controls IL7R Splicing and Increases Multiple Sclerosis Risk.

    PubMed

    Galarza-Muñoz, Gaddiel; Briggs, Farren B S; Evsyukova, Irina; Schott-Lerner, Geraldine; Kennedy, Edward M; Nyanhete, Tinashe; Wang, Liuyang; Bergamaschi, Laura; Widen, Steven G; Tomaras, Georgia D; Ko, Dennis C; Bradrick, Shelton S; Barcellos, Lisa F; Gregory, Simon G; Garcia-Blanco, Mariano A

    2017-03-23

    Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune disorder where T cells attack neurons in the central nervous system (CNS) leading to demyelination and neurological deficits. A driver of increased MS risk is the soluble form of the interleukin-7 receptor alpha chain gene (sIL7R) produced by alternative splicing of IL7R exon 6. Here, we identified the RNA helicase DDX39B as a potent activator of this exon and consequently a repressor of sIL7R, and we found strong genetic association of DDX39B with MS risk. Indeed, we showed that a genetic variant in the 5' UTR of DDX39B reduces translation of DDX39B mRNAs and increases MS risk. Importantly, this DDX39B variant showed strong genetic and functional epistasis with allelic variants in IL7R exon 6. This study establishes the occurrence of biological epistasis in humans and provides mechanistic insight into the regulation of IL7R exon 6 splicing and its impact on MS risk.

  8. Multiple risk factors for work-related injuries and illnesses in korean-chinese migrant workers.

    PubMed

    Lee, Hyeonkyeong; Chae, Duckhee; Yi, Kwan Hyung; Im, Soye; Cho, Sung Hye

    2015-01-01

    Korean-Chinese currently represent the largest group of migrant workers in Korea. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of risk factors on the occurrence of work-related injuries and illnesses (WII). Data for 486 Korean-Chinese migrant workers were drawn from the 2010 Migrant Workers' Health and Safety Survey in Korea. Logistic regression was used to identify the association between WII and multiple risk factors. Individual health status (OR = 3.83, 95% CI [2.01, 7.30]), safety training (OR = 0.39, 95% CI [0.18, 0.85]), job satisfaction (OR = 1.90, 95% CI [1.07, 3.38]), physical and chemical hazard exposure (OR = 1.05, 95% CI [1.02, 1.08]), and length of stay (OR = 1.01, 95% CI [1.00, 1.01]) were identified as risk factors for WII. The findings suggest the need for a comprehensive approach to assess WII risk factors, including personal, work organization and psychosocial demands, and acculturation in Korean-Chinese migrant workers.

  9. A regional flux-based risk assessment approach for multiple contaminated sites on groundwater bodies.

    PubMed

    Jamin, P; Dollé, F; Chisala, B; Orban, Ph; Popescu, I-C; Hérivaux, C; Dassargues, A; Brouyère, S

    2012-01-01

    In the context of the Water Framework Directive (EP and CEU, 2000), management plans have to be set up to monitor and to maintain water quality in groundwater bodies in the EU. In heavily industrialized and urbanized areas, the cumulative effect of multiple contaminant sources is likely and has to be evaluated. In order to propose adequate measures, the calculated risk should be based on criteria reflecting the risk of groundwater quality deterioration, in a cumulative manner and at the scale of the entire groundwater body. An integrated GIS- and flux-based risk assessment approach for groundwater bodies is described, with a regional scale indicator for evaluating the quality status of the groundwater body. It is based on the SEQ-ESO currently used in the Walloon Region of Belgium which defines, for different water uses and for a detailed list of groundwater contaminants, a set of threshold values reflecting the levels of water quality and degradation with respect to each contaminant. The methodology is illustrated with first results at a regional scale on a groundwater body-scale application to a contaminated alluvial aquifer which has been classified to be at risk of not reaching a good quality status by 2015. These first results show that contaminants resulting from old industrial activities in that area are likely to contribute significantly to the degradation of groundwater quality. However, further investigations are required on the evaluation of the actual polluting pressures before any definitive conclusion be established.

  10. Relationship between physical activity, physical fitness and multiple metabolic risk in youths from Muzambinho's study.

    PubMed

    Barbosa, João Paulo Dos Anjos Souza; Basso, Luciano; Seabra, André; Prista, Antonio; Tani, Go; Maia, José António Ribeiro; Forjaz, Cláudia Lúcia De Moraes

    2016-08-01

    Negative associations between physical activity (PA), physical fitness and multiple metabolic risk factors (MMRF) in youths from populations with low PA are reported. The persistence of this association in moderately-to highly active populations is not, however, well established. The aim of the present study was to investigate this association in a Brazilian city with high frequency of active youths. We assessed 122 subjects (9.9 ± 1.3 years) from Muzambinho city. Body mass index, waist circumference, glycaemia, cholesterolaemia, systolic and diastolic blood pressures were measured. Maximal handgrip strength and one-mile walk/run test were used. Leisure time PA was assessed by interview. Poisson regression was used in the analysis. The model explained 11% of the total variance. Only relative muscular strength and one-mile walk/run were statistically significant (p < .05). Those who needed more time to cover the one-mile walk/run test had an increased in metabolic risk of 11%, and those with greater strength reduced the risk by about 82%. In conclusion, children and youths from an active population who need less time to cover the one-mile walk/run test or who had greater muscular strength showed a reduced metabolic risk. These results suggest that even in children and youths with high leisure time PA, a greater aerobic fitness and strength might help to further reduce their MMRF.

  11. The importance of multiple performance criteria for understanding trust in risk managers.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Branden B; White, Mathew P

    2010-07-01

    Effective risk management requires balancing several, sometimes competing, goals, such as protecting public health and ensuring cost control. Research examining public trust of risk managers has largely focused on trust that is unspecified or for a single goal. Yet it can be reasonable to have a high level of trust in one aspect of a target's performance but not another. Two studies involving redevelopment of contaminated land (Study 1) and drinking water standards (Study 2) present preliminary evidence on the value of distinguishing between performance criteria for understanding of trust. Study 1 assessed perceptions of several trust targets (councilors, developers, scientists, residents) on their competence (capacity to achieve goals) and willingness to take action under uncertainty for four criteria. Study 2 assessed competence, willingness, and trust for five criteria regarding a single government agency. In both studies overall trust in each target was significantly better explained by considering perceptions of their performance on multiple criteria than on the single criterion of public health. In Study 1, the influence of criteria also varied plausibly across trust targets (e.g., willingness to act under uncertainty increased trust in developers on cost control and councilors on local economic improvement, but decreased it for both targets on environmental protection). Study 2 showed that explained variance in trust increased with both dimension- and trust-based measures of criteria. Further conceptual and methodological development of the notion of multiple trust criteria could benefit our understanding of stated trust judgments.

  12. Public Health Risks of Multiple-Drug-Resistant Enterococcus spp. in Southeast Asia

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Sui Mae; Rahman, Sadequr

    2015-01-01

    Enterococci rank as one of the leading causes of nosocomial infections, such as urinary tract infections, surgical wound infections, and endocarditis, in humans. These infections can be hard to treat because of the rising incidence of antibiotic resistance. Enterococci inhabiting nonhuman reservoirs appear to play a critical role in the acquisition and dissemination of antibiotic resistance determinants. The spread of antibiotic resistance has become a major concern in both human and veterinary medicine, especially in Southeast Asia, where many developing countries have poor legislation and regulations to control the supply and excessive use of antimicrobials. This review addresses the occurrence of antibiotic-resistant enterococci in Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries and proposes infection control measures that should be applied to limit the spread of multiple-drug-resistant enterococci. PMID:26150452

  13. Meta-analysis of the association of MTHFR polymorphisms with multiple myeloma risk

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Li-Min; Ruan, Lin-Hai; Yang, Hai-Ping

    2015-01-01

    The association of methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) polymorphisms with multiple myeloma (MM) risk has been explored, but the results remain controversial. Thus, a meta-analysis was performed to provide a comprehensively estimate. The case-control studies about MTHFR C677T and A1298C polymorphisms with MM risk were collected by searching PubMed, Elsevier, China National Knowledge Infrastructure and Wanfang Databases. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were applied to assess the strength of association. Overall, no significant association was found between MTHFR A1298C polymorphism and MM risk under all four genetic models (AC vs. AA, OR = 0.99, 95%CI = 0.82-1.20; CC vs. AA, OR = 1.14, 95%CI = 0.77-1.68; recessive model, OR = 1.10, 95%CI = 0.76-1.59; dominant model, OR = 1.01, 95%CI = 0.84-1.22). The risk was also not significantly altered for C677T polymorphism and MM in overall comparisons (CT vs. CC, OR = 1.04, 95%CI = 0.93-1.17; TT vs. CC, OR = 1.16, 95%CI = 0.98-1.37; recessive model, OR = 1.13, 95%CI = 0.98-1.32; dominant model, OR = 1.07, 95%CI = 0.96-1.20). In subgroup analyses by ethnicity, no significant association was observed in both Caucasians and Asians. This meta-analysis suggested that MTHFR polymorphisms were not associated with MM risk. PMID:26022785

  14. Risk of Second Primary Cancers in Multiple Myeloma Survivors in German and Swedish Cancer Registries

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Tianhui; Fallah, Mahdi; Brenner, Hermann; Jansen, Lina; Mai, Elias K.; Castro, Felipe A.; Katalinic, Alexander; Emrich, Katharina; Holleczek, Bernd; Geiss, Karla; Eberle, Andrea; Sundquist, Kristina; Hemminki, Kari; Geiss, Karla; Meyer, Martin; Eberle, Andrea; Luttmann, Sabine; Stabenow, Roland; Hentschel, Stefan; Nennecke, Alice; Kieschke, Joachim; Sirri, Eunice; Holleczek, Bernd; Emrich, Katharina; Kajüter, Hiltraud; Mattauch, Volkmar; Katalinic, Alexander; Eisemann, Nora; Kraywinkel, Klaus; Brenner, Hermann; Jansen, Lina; Castro, Felipe

    2016-01-01

    We aimed at investigating the distribution and risk of second primary cancers (SPCs) in multiple myeloma (MM) survivors in Germany and Sweden to provide etiological understanding of SPCs and insight into their incidence rates and recording practices. MM patients diagnosed in 1997–2010 at age ≥15 years were selected from the Swedish (nationwide) and 12 German cancer registries. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were used to assess risk of a specific SPC compared to risk of the same first cancer in the corresponding background population. Among 18,735 survivors of first MM in Germany and 7,560 in Sweden, overall 752 and 349 SPCs were recorded, respectively. Significantly elevated SIRs of specific SPCs were observed for acute myeloid leukemia (AML; SIR = 4.9) in Germany and for kidney cancer (2.3), AML (2.3) and nervous system cancer (1.9) in Sweden. Elevated risk for AML was more pronounced in the earlier diagnosis period compared to the later, i.e., 9.7 (4.2–19) for 1997–2003 period versus 3.5 (1.5–6.9) for 2004–2010 in Germany; 3.8 (1.4–8.3) for 1997–2003 versus 2.2 (0.3–7.8) for 2004–2010 in Sweden. We found elevated risk for AML for overall, early diagnosis periods and longer follow-up times in both populations, suggesting possible side effects of treatment for MM patients. PMID:26908235

  15. A Multiple Risk Factors Model of the Development of Aggression among Early Adolescents from Urban Disadvantaged Neighborhoods

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Sangwon; Orpinas, Pamela; Kamphaus, Randy; Kelder, Steven H.

    2011-01-01

    This study empirically derived a multiple risk factors model of the development of aggression among middle school students in urban, low-income neighborhoods, using Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM). Results indicated that aggression increased from sixth to eighth grade. Additionally, the influences of four risk domains (individual, family,…

  16. Radiation Risks of Leukemia, Lymphoma and Multiple Myeloma Incidence in the Mayak Cohort: 1948–2004

    PubMed Central

    Kuznetsova, Irina S.; Labutina, Elena V.; Hunter, Nezahat

    2016-01-01

    Incidence of all types of lymphatic and hematopoietic cancers, including Hodgkin’s lymphoma, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, multiple myeloma, acute and chronic myeloid leukemia (AML and CML respectively), chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and other forms of leukemia have been studied in a cohort of 22,373 workers employed at the Mayak Production Association (PA) main facilities during 536,126 person-years of follow-up from the start of employment between 1948 and 1982 to the end of 2004. Risk assessment was performed for both external gamma-radiation and internal alpha-exposure of red bone marrow due to incorporated Pu-239 using Mayak Workers Dosimetry System 2008 taking into account non-radiation factors. The incidence of leukemia excluding CLL showed a non-linear dose response relationship for external gamma exposure with exponential effect modifiers based on time since exposure and age at exposure. Among the major subtypes of leukemia, the excess risk of AML was the highest within the first 2–5 years of external exposure (ERR per Gy: 38.40; 90% CI: 13.92–121.4) and decreased substantially thereafter, but the risks remained statistically significant (ERR per Gy: 2.63; 90% CI: 0.07–12.55). In comparison, excess CML first occurred 5 years after exposure and decreased about 10 years after exposure, although the association was not statistically significant (ERR per Gy: 1.39; 90% CI: -0.22–7.32). The study found no evidence of an association between leukemia and occupational exposure to internal plutonium ERR per Gy 2.13; 90% CI: <0–9.45). There was also no indication of any relationship with either external gamma or internal plutonium radiation exposure for either incidence of Hodgkin or non-Hodgkin lymphoma or multiple myeloma. PMID:27631102

  17. Multiple gene sequencing for risk assessment in patients with early-onset or familial breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Lin, Po-Han; Kuo, Wen-Hung; Huang, Ai-Chu; Lu, Yen-Shen; Lin, Ching-Hung; Kuo, Sung-Hsin; Wang, Ming-Yang; Liu, Chun-Yu; Cheng, Fiona Tsui-Fen; Yeh, Ming-Hsin; Li, Huei-Ying; Yang, Yu-Hsuan; Hsu, Yu-Hua; Fan, Sheng-Chih; Li, Long-Yuan; Yu, Sung-Liang; Chang, King-Jen; Chen, Pei-Lung; Ni, Yen-Hsuan; Huang, Chiun-Sheng

    2016-02-16

    Since BRCA mutations are only responsible for 10-20% of cases of breast cancer in patients with early-onset or a family history and since next-generation sequencing technology allows the simultaneous sequencing of a large number of target genes, testing for multiple cancer-predisposing genes is now being considered, but its significance in clinical practice remains unclear. We then developed a sequencing panel containing 68 genes that had cancer risk association for patients with early-onset or familial breast cancer. A total of 133 patients were enrolled and 30 (22.6%) were found to carry germline deleterious mutations, 9 in BRCA1, 11 in BRCA2, 2 in RAD50, 2 in TP53 and one each in ATM, BRIP1, FANCI, MSH2, MUTYH, and RAD51C. Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) was associated with the highest mutation rate (45.5%, p = 0.025). Seven of the 9 BRCA1 mutations and the single FANCI mutation were in the TNBC group; 9 of the 11 BRCA2, 1 of the 2 RAD50 as well as BRIP1, MSH2, MUTYH, and RAD51C mutations were in the hormone receptor (HR)(+)Her2(-) group, and the other RAD50, ATM, and TP53 mutations were in the HR(+)Her2(+) group. Mutation carriers were considered as high-risk to develop malignancy and advised to receive cancer screening. Screening protocols of non-BRCA genes were based on their biologic functions; for example, patients carrying RAD51C mutation received a screening protocol similar to that for BRCA, since BRCA and RAD51C are both involved in homologous recombination. In conclusion, we consider that multiple gene sequencing in cancer risk assessment is clinically valuable.

  18. Multiple gene sequencing for risk assessment in patients with early-onset or familial breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Po-Han; Kuo, Wen-Hung; Huang, Ai-Chu; Lu, Yen-Shen; Lin, Ching-Hung; Kuo, Sung-Hsin; Wang, Ming-Yang; Liu, Chun-Yu; Cheng, Fiona Tsui-Fen; Yeh, Ming-Hsin; Li, Huei-Ying; Yang, Yu-Hsuan; Hsu, Yu-Hua; Fan, Sheng-Chih; Li, Long-Yuan; Yu, Sung-Liang; Chang, King-Jen; Chen, Pei-Lung; Ni, Yen-Hsuan; Huang, Chiun-Sheng

    2016-01-01

    Since BRCA mutations are only responsible for 10–20% of cases of breast cancer in patients with early-onset or a family history and since next-generation sequencing technology allows the simultaneous sequencing of a large number of target genes, testing for multiple cancer-predisposing genes is now being considered, but its significance in clinical practice remains unclear. We then developed a sequencing panel containing 68 genes that had cancer risk association for patients with early-onset or familial breast cancer. A total of 133 patients were enrolled and 30 (22.6%) were found to carry germline deleterious mutations, 9 in BRCA1, 11 in BRCA2, 2 in RAD50, 2 in TP53 and one each in ATM, BRIP1, FANCI, MSH2, MUTYH, and RAD51C. Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) was associated with the highest mutation rate (45.5%, p = 0.025). Seven of the 9 BRCA1 mutations and the single FANCI mutation were in the TNBC group; 9 of the 11 BRCA2, 1 of the 2 RAD50 as well as BRIP1, MSH2, MUTYH, and RAD51C mutations were in the hormone receptor (HR)(+)Her2(−) group, and the other RAD50, ATM, and TP53 mutations were in the HR(+)Her2(+) group. Mutation carriers were considered as high-risk to develop malignancy and advised to receive cancer screening. Screening protocols of non-BRCA genes were based on their biologic functions; for example, patients carrying RAD51C mutation received a screening protocol similar to that for BRCA, since BRCA and RAD51C are both involved in homologous recombination. In conclusion, we consider that multiple gene sequencing in cancer risk assessment is clinically valuable. PMID:26824983

  19. Risk of Multiple Sclerosis in Patients with Psoriasis: A Danish Nationwide Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Egeberg, Alexander; Mallbris, Lotus; Gislason, Gunnar Hilmar; Skov, Lone; Hansen, Peter Riis

    2016-01-01

    Psoriasis and multiple sclerosis (MS) are inflammatory disorders with similarities in genetic risk variants and inflammatory pathways. Limited evidence is available on the relationship between the two diseases. We therefore investigated the risk of incident (new-onset) MS in patients with mild and severe psoriasis, respectively. All Danish citizens aged ≥ 18 years from 1 January 1997 to 31 December 2011 were identified by linkage of nationwide registries at the individual level. We estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) adjusted for age, gender, socioeconomic status, smoking, medication, comorbidity, and UV phototherapy by Poisson regression. There were 58,628 and 9,952 cases of mild and severe psoriasis, respectively, and 9,713 cases of MS. Incidence rates of MS per 10,000 person-years for the reference population, mild psoriasis, and severe psoriasis were 1.78, 3.22, and 4.55, respectively. Adjusted IRRs of MS were 1.84 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.46-2.30) and 2.61 (95% CI, 1.44-4.74) in mild and severe psoriasis, respectively. Similar results were observed when adjustment for family history of MS was included in the analyses. Psoriasis may confer a disease severity-dependent risk of MS. Further studies are warranted to establish the mechanisms underlying this relationship and its potential clinical consequences.

  20. Parent Involvement in School Conceptualizing Multiple Dimensions and Their Relations with Family and Demographic Risk Factors.

    PubMed

    Kohl, Gwynne O; Lengua, Liliana J; McMahon, Robert J

    2000-11-01

    Parent involvement (PI) in school is associated with more positive academic performance and social competence in children. However, there are inadequacies in current measures of PI and a need for a better understanding of predictors of PI. In this study, measures were obtained from a normative sample of 387 children in kindergarten and first grade from high-risk neighborhoods in 4 different sites. First, a confirmatory factor analysis of a theoretical factor model of PI identified 6 reliable multiple-reporter PI factors: Parent-Teacher Contact, Parent Involvement at School, Quality of Parent-Teacher Relationship, Teacher's Perception of the Parent, Parent Involvement at Home, and Parent Endorsement of School. Next, the relations among 3 specific family and demographic risk factors-parental education level, maternal depression, and single-parent status-and these 6 PI factors were examined using path analyses in structural equation modeling. Results indicated that the 3 risk factors were differentially associated with the 6 PI factors: Parental education was significantly associated with 4 PI outcomes, maternal depression was significantly associated with 5 PI outcomes, and single-parent status was significantly associated with 3 PI outcomes. No significant ethnic group differences between African American and Caucasian families were found in these relations.

  1. [A multiple variable analysis about the risk factors of breast cancer in women].

    PubMed

    Tan, H; Liu, A; Wan, J

    1998-01-01

    A comprehensive investigation to the risk factors of breast cancer was carried out in 146 pairs of women subjects, with the method of 1:1 matched case-control study, and of logistic regression analysis and principal component analysis. As a result, a regression equation which includes 5 independent variables has been established by logistic regression analysis; Ten principal components were extracted from 22 risk factors of breast cancer through principal component analysis, and the cumulative contribution of variances of the 10 principal components is 64.8%. The result combining the mono-factor analysis and the multiple variables analysis indicated that the principal risk factors of breast cancer are cadre occupation, the age of primiparity and late marriage, more intake of salted meat and sausage, passive smoking, having the history of family tumor, of breast benign tumor, and of the mastadenitis; but the more number of giving births, longer period of time of lactation, more vegetable intake, and taking more vitamin may have preventive effect for breast cancer.

  2. NQO1 gene rs1800566 variant is not associated with risk for multiple sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background A possible role of oxidative stress in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis (MS) and in experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis has been suggested. The detoxification enzyme NAD(P)H dehydrogenase, quinone 1 (NQO1) has been found up-regulated in MS lesions. A previous report described an association between the SNP rs1800566 in the NQO1 gene and the risk for MS in the Greek population. The aim of this study was to replicate a possible influence of the. SNP rs1800566 in the NQO1 gene in the risk for MS in the Spanish Caucasian population. Methods We analyzed allelic and genotypic frequency of NQO1 rs1800566 in 290 patients with MS and 310 healthy controls, using TaqMan Assays. Results NQO1 rs1800566 allelic and genotypic frequencies did not differ significantly between MS patients and controls, and were unrelated with age of onset of MS, gender, and clinical type of MS. Conclusions Our results indicate that NQO1 rs1800566 does not have an effect on MS disease risk. PMID:24755231

  3. Regulatory approaches to obesity prevention: A systematic overview of current laws addressing diet-related risk factors in the European Union and the United States.

    PubMed

    Sisnowski, Jana; Handsley, Elizabeth; Street, Jackie M

    2015-06-01

    High prevalence of overweight and obesity remains a significant international public health problem. Law has been identified as a tool for obesity prevention and selected high-profile measures have been reported. However, the nature and extent of enacted legislation internationally are unclear. This research provides an overview of regulatory approaches enacted in the United States, the European Union, and EU Member States since 2004. To this end, relevant databases of primary and secondary legislation were systematically searched to identify and explore laws addressing dietary risk factors for obesity. Across jurisdictions, current regulatory approaches to obesity prevention are limited in reach and scope. Target groups are rarely the general population, but instead sub-populations in government-supported settings. Consumer information provision is preferred over taxation and marketing restrictions other than the regulation of health and nutrition claims. In the EU in particular, product reformulation with industry consent has also emerged as a popular small-scale measure. While consistent and widespread use of law is lacking, governments have employed a range of regulatory measures in the name of obesity prevention, indicating that there is, in principle, political will. Results from this study may serve as a starting point for future research and policy development.

  4. Risk Evaluation of Multiple Hazards during Sediment and Water Related Disasters in a Small Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamanoi, Kazuki; Fujita, Masaharu

    2016-04-01

    To reduce human damage due to sediment and water related disasters induced by heavy rainfall, warning and evacuation system is very important. In Japan, the Meteorological Agency issues the sediment disaster alert when the potential of sediment disaster increases. Following the alert, local government issues evacuation advisory considering the alert and premonitory phenomena. However, it is very difficult for local people to perceive the dangerousness around them because the alert and advisory do not contain any definite information. Therefore, they sometimes misjudge the evacuation action. One reason of this is not only crucial hazards but also relatively small-scale multiple hazards take place and rise evacuation difficulties during sediment and water related disaster. Examples of small-scale hazards include: rainfall-associated hazards such as poor visibility or road submergence; landslide-associated hazards such as slope failure or sediment inflow; and flood-associated hazards such as overtopping of river dike, inundation, or destruction of bridges. The purpose of this study was to estimate the risk of multiple hazards during disaster events by numerical simulation. We applied the integrated sediment runoff model on unit channels, unit slopes, and slope units to an actual sediment and water related disaster occurred in a small basin in Tamba city, Hyogo, Japan. The maximum rainfall per hour was 91 mm (17/09/2014 2:00˜3:00) and the maximum daily precipitation was 414mm. The integrated model contains semi-physical based landslide prediction (sediment production) model, rainfall runoff model employing the kinematic wave method, model of sediment supply to channels, and bedload and suspended sediment transport model. We evaluated the risk of rainfall-associated hazards in each slope unit into 4 levels (Level I ˜ IV) using the rainfall intensity Ir [mm/hour]. The risk of flood- associated hazards were also estimated using the ratio of calculated water level and

  5. Distribution Patterns of Infection with Multiple Types of Human Papillomaviruses and Their Association with Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Soto-De Leon, Sara; Camargo, Milena; Sanchez, Ricardo; Munoz, Marina; Perez-Prados, Antonio; Purroy, Antonio; Patarroyo, Manuel Elkin; Patarroyo, Manuel Alfonso

    2011-01-01

    Background Infection with multiple types of human papillomavirus (HPV) is one of the main risk factors associated with the development of cervical lesions. In this study, cervical samples collected from 1,810 women with diverse sociocultural backgrounds, who attended to their cervical screening program in different geographical regions of Colombia, were examined for the presence of cervical lesions and HPV by Papanicolau testing and DNA PCR detection, respectively. Principal Findings The negative binomial distribution model used in this study showed differences between the observed and expected values within some risk factor categories analyzed. Particularly in the case of single infection and coinfection with more than 4 HPV types, observed frequencies were smaller than expected, while the number of women infected with 2 to 4 viral types were higher than expected. Data analysis according to a negative binomial regression showed an increase in the risk of acquiring more HPV types in women who were of indigenous ethnicity (+37.8%), while this risk decreased in women who had given birth more than 4 times (−31.1%), or were of mestizo (−24.6%) or black (−40.9%) ethnicity. Conclusions According to a theoretical probability distribution, the observed number of women having either a single infection or more than 4 viral types was smaller than expected, while for those infected with 2–4 HPV types it was larger than expected. Taking into account that this study showed a higher HPV coinfection rate in the indigenous ethnicity, the role of underlying factors should be assessed in detail in future studies. PMID:21379574

  6. Risk factors for multiple sclerosis in Kuwait: a population-based case-control study.

    PubMed

    Al-Afasy, Hanan H; Al-Obaidan, Mohammed A; Al-Ansari, Yousef A; Al-Yatama, Sarah A; Al-Rukaibi, Mohammed S; Makki, Nourah I; Suresh, Anita; Akhtar, Saeed

    2013-01-01

    Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic and progressively disabling inflammatory autoimmune disorder of the central nervous system. MS has a multifactorial etiology and is triggered by environmental factors in individuals with complex genetic risk profiles. The epidemiology of MS changes with the spatial and temporal distribution of these genetic and nongenetic risk factors. This population-based matched case-control study aimed to determine the risk factors for MS in Kuwait. From May 2 to 9, 2010, we enrolled 101 confirmed MS cases using the list frame maintained by the Multiple Sclerosis Association of Kuwait. For each case, two population controls individually matched for age (±2 years), gender and nationality were selected. Data on demographic, socioeconomic variables, potential genetic and environmental factors were collected using a structured questionnaire. For a case, the questions were directed to the period that preceded the recognition of the disease, while for each of the two matched controls, a date of 'pseudodiagnosis' of MS was established, i.e. the date on which the control subject was of the same age as his/her matched case was at MS diagnosis and accordingly questions were directed to the preceding period. The multivariable conditional logistic regression model showed that compared with controls, the cases were significantly more likely to have a family history of MS [matched odds ratio (OR)(adj) = 6.7; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 2.5-18.0; p < 0.001] or have suffered from a head trauma in the past before MS diagnosis (matched OR(adj) = 2.6; 95% CI: 1.2-5.5; p = 0.014). Furthermore, compared with controls, cases were significantly more likely to have stayed in Kuwait during the Iraqi invasion of 1990 (matched OR(adj) = 1.8; 95% CI: 1.1-3.5; p = 0.022). This study showed that a family history of MS, a history of head injury, and presence in Kuwait at the time of the Iraqi invasion of 1990 were associated with a significantly increased MS risk

  7. Network Location and Risk of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Transmission among Injecting Drug Users: Results of Multiple Membership Multilevel Modeling of Social Networks

    PubMed Central

    Shahesmaeili, Armita; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Soori, Hamid

    2015-01-01

    Background Despite the implementation of harm reduction program, some injecting drug users (IDU) continue to engage in high-risk behaviors. It seems that there are some social factors that contribute to risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission in IDUs. The aim of this study was to analysis the social network of IDUs and examines the effect of network location on HIV transmission risk using the multiple membership multilevel models. Methods From October 2013 to March 2014 we conducted face-to-face interviews on 147 IDUs. We asked participants to nominate up to 20 people whom they had more than causal contact with them during the last month and specify if each nominee is drug injector or not. We defined four Network locations as Core and Peripheries of main components. The risk of HIV transmission for each individual was measured based on 7 items scale. We applied Multiple Membership Multilevel Linear Regression analysis to examine the relationship between network location and HIV transmission risk. We used Stata and UCINET software’s for the analysis of data. Findings The mean age of participants was 37 ± 9.32. Most of the individuals were male, single and educated up to guidance school. Being a core member of the main component as like as being a member of other small components in comparison with Isolates/unlinked significantly increased the HIV Transmission risk. Engagement in methadone maintenance therapies (MMT) was associated with a decrease in HIV transmission score. Conclusion Network analysis is a useful guide to find the most influential members of IDUs network and may have a complementary role for harm reduction program. The efficacy of interventions programs can be reinforced by addressing them to core individuals within the network. Furthermore, it provides the harm reduction staff to find the broader number of IDUs who are usually hard to reach by routine outreach case-finding tasks. PMID:26322205

  8. Assessment of BTEX-induced health risk under multiple uncertainties at a petroleum-contaminated site: An integrated fuzzy stochastic approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xiaodong; Huang, Guo H.

    2011-12-01

    Groundwater pollution has gathered more and more attention in the past decades. Conducting an assessment of groundwater contamination risk is desired to provide sound bases for supporting risk-based management decisions. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop an integrated fuzzy stochastic approach to evaluate risks of BTEX-contaminated groundwater under multiple uncertainties. It consists of an integrated interval fuzzy subsurface modeling system (IIFMS) and an integrated fuzzy second-order stochastic risk assessment (IFSOSRA) model. The IIFMS is developed based on factorial design, interval analysis, and fuzzy sets approach to predict contaminant concentrations under hybrid uncertainties. Two input parameters (longitudinal dispersivity and porosity) are considered to be uncertain with known fuzzy membership functions, and intrinsic permeability is considered to be an interval number with unknown distribution information. A factorial design is conducted to evaluate interactive effects of the three uncertain factors on the modeling outputs through the developed IIFMS. The IFSOSRA model can systematically quantify variability and uncertainty, as well as their hybrids, presented as fuzzy, stochastic and second-order stochastic parameters in health risk assessment. The developed approach haw been applied to the management of a real-world petroleum-contaminated site within a western Canada context. The results indicate that multiple uncertainties, under a combination of information with various data-quality levels, can be effectively addressed to provide supports in identifying proper remedial efforts. A unique contribution of this research is the development of an integrated fuzzy stochastic approach for handling various forms of uncertainties associated with simulation and risk assessment efforts.

  9. Vitamin-D Deficiency As a Potential Environmental Risk Factor in Multiple Sclerosis, Schizophrenia, and Autism

    PubMed Central

    Kočovská, Eva; Gaughran, Fiona; Krivoy, Amir; Meier, Ute-Christiane

    2017-01-01

    In this short review, we want to summarize the current findings on the role of vitamin-D in multiple sclerosis (MS), schizophrenia, and autism. Many studies have highlighted hypovitaminosis-D as a potential environmental risk factor for a variety of conditions such as MS, asthma, cardiovascular disease, and, more recently, psychiatric diseases. However, whether hypovitaminosis-D is a potential causative factor for the development or activity in these conditions or whether hypovitaminosis-D may be due to increased vitamin-D consumption by an activated immune system (reverse causation) is the focus of intense research. Here, we will discuss current evidence exploring the role of vitamin-D in MS, schizophrenia, and autism and its impact on adaptive and innate immunity, antimicrobial defense, the microbiome, neuroinflammation, behavior, and neurogenesis. More work is needed to gain insight into its role in the underlying pathophysiology of these conditions as it may offer attractive means of intervention and prevention.

  10. Balancing precision and risk: should multiple detection methods be analyzed separately in N-mixture models?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Graves, Tabitha A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Kendall, Katherine C.; Beier, Paul; Stetz, Jeffrey B.; Macleod, Amy C.

    2012-01-01

    Using multiple detection methods can increase the number, kind, and distribution of individuals sampled, which may increase accuracy and precision and reduce cost of population abundance estimates. However, when variables influencing abundance are of interest, if individuals detected via different methods are influenced by the landscape differently, separate analysis of multiple detection methods may be more appropriate. We evaluated the effects of combining two detection methods on the identification of variables important to local abundance using detections of grizzly bears with hair traps (systematic) and bear rubs (opportunistic). We used hierarchical abundance models (N-mixture models) with separate model components for each detection method. If both methods sample the same population, the use of either data set alone should (1) lead to the selection of the same variables as important and (2) provide similar estimates of relative local abundance. We hypothesized that the inclusion of 2 detection methods versus either method alone should (3) yield more support for variables identified in single method analyses (i.e. fewer variables and models with greater weight), and (4) improve precision of covariate estimates for variables selected in both separate and combined analyses because sample size is larger. As expected, joint analysis of both methods increased precision as well as certainty in variable and model selection. However, the single-method analyses identified different variables and the resulting predicted abundances had different spatial distributions. We recommend comparing single-method and jointly modeled results to identify the presence of individual heterogeneity between detection methods in N-mixture models, along with consideration of detection probabilities, correlations among variables, and tolerance to risk of failing to identify variables important to a subset of the population. The benefits of increased precision should be weighed against

  11. COPD Hospitalization Risk Increased with Distinct Patterns of Multiple Systems Comorbidities Unveiled by Network Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Young Ji; Boyd, Andrew D.; Li, Jianrong ‘John’; Gardeux, Vincent; Kenost, Colleen; Saner, Don; Li, Haiquan; Abraham, Ivo; Krishnan, Jerry A.; Lussier, Yves A.

    2014-01-01

    Earlier studies on hospitalization risk are largely based on regression models. To our knowledge, network modeling of multiple comorbidities is novel and inherently enables multidimensional scoring and unbiased feature reduction. Network modeling was conducted using an independent validation design starting from 38,695 patients, 1,446,581 visits, and 430 distinct clinical facilities/hospitals. Odds ratios (OR) were calculated for every pair of comorbidity using patient counts and compared their tendency with hospitalization rates and ED visits. Network topology analyses were performed, defining significant comorbidity associations as having OR≥5 & False-Discovery-Rate≤10−7. Four COPD-associated comorbidity sub-networks emerged, incorporating multiple clinical systems: (i) metabolic syndrome, (ii) substance abuse and mental disorder, (iii) pregnancy-associated conditions, and (iv) fall-related injury. The latter two have not been reported yet. Features prioritized from the network are predictive of hospitalizations in an independent set (p<0.004). Therefore, we suggest that network topology is a scalable and generalizable method predictive of hospitalization. PMID:25954392

  12. Multiple Imputation to Correct for Nonresponse Bias: Application in Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors Survey

    PubMed Central

    Miri, Hamid Heidarian; Hassanzadeh, Jafar; Rajaeefard, Abdolreza; Mirmohammadkhani, Majid; Angali, Kambiz Ahmadi

    2016-01-01

    Background: This study was carried out to use multiple imputation (MI) in order to correct for the potential nonresponse bias in measurements related to variable fasting blood glucose (FBS) in non-communicable disease risk factors survey conducted in Iran in 2007. Methods: Five multiple imputation methods as bootstrap expectation maximization, multivariate normal regression, univariate linear regression, MI by chained equation, and predictive mean matching were applied to impute variable fasting blood sugar. To make FBS consistent with normality assumption natural logarithm (Ln) and Box-Cox (BC) transformations were used prior to imputation. Measurements from which we intended to remove nonresponse bias included mean of FBS and percentage of those with high FBS. Results: For mean of FBS results didn’t considerably change after applying MI methods. Regarding the prevalence of high blood sugar all methods on original scale tended to increase the estimates except for predictive mean matching that along with all methods on BC or Ln transformed data didn’t change the results. Conclusions: FBS-related measurements didn’t change after applying different MI methods. It seems that nonresponse bias was not an important challenge regarding these measurements. However use of MI methods resulted in more efficient estimations. Further studies are encouraged on accuracy of MI methods in these settings. PMID:26234966

  13. Sex Differences and HIV Risk Behaviors: The Interaction Between the Experience of Multiple Types of Abuse and Self-Restraint on HIV Risk Behaviors

    PubMed Central

    Conrad, Selby M.; Swenson, Rebecca R.; Hancock, Evan; Brown, Larry K.

    2014-01-01

    Adolescents with abuse histories have been shown to be at increased risk to acquire Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Sexually Transmitted Infections (HIV/STI). Additionally, teens with lower levels of self-restraint or higher levels of distress, such as those with psychiatric concerns, have also demonstrated increased sexual risk behaviors. This study explored sex differences in sexual risk behaviors among a sample of adolescents in a therapeutic/alternative high school setting. Moderated regression analysis showed that a lower level of self-restraint was associated with sexual risk behaviors in boys but not in girls. Rather, the interaction of self-restraint and multiple types of abuse was associated with greater sex risk within girls in this sample. Results suggest that girls and boys with abuse histories and low levels of self-restraint may have different intervention needs related to sexual risk behaviors. PMID:24818645

  14. Risk factors for multiple sclerosis and associations with anti-EBV antibody titers.

    PubMed

    Mouhieddine, Tarek H; Darwish, Hala; Fawaz, Lama; Yamout, Bassem; Tamim, Hani; Khoury, Samia J

    2015-05-01

    Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory demyelination of the central nervous system. We investigated the prevalence of EBV seropositivity and other known risk factors for MS (age, smoking, low vitamin D) and their effect on anti-EBV antibody titers. We retrospectively studied 249 MS patients receiving care at the American University of Beirut Medical Center and 230 controls, during 2010-2014. EBV seropositivity was higher in MS patients compared to controls for both anti-VCA (99.5%; 97.2%) and anti-EBNA-1 (96.3%; 89.4%), and the titers were significantly higher in MS patients. MS patients had a significantly lower vitamin D level (15.5 ± 8.3 ng/ml) compared to controls (20.4 ± 11.3 ng/ml). The proportion of heavy smokers and overweight individuals was significantly higher in MS patients. Lebanese MS patients have risk factors similar to those in western countries. Older age and female gender were associated with a higher anti-VCA titer and male gender with a higher anti-EBNA-1.

  15. Health risks associated with ingesting venison from a uranium enrichment facility with multiple operable units

    SciTech Connect

    Duncan, J.; Welsh, C.

    1995-12-31

    Ingestion of game, including venison, may be a significant exposure pathway in human health risk assessments at hazardous waste sites. The difficulty associated with modeling contaminant tissue concentrations in a wide-ranging herbivorous mammal is compounded when the home range of the mammal extends over multiple operable units (OUs) of varying size and media contaminant concentration. Using biotransfer factors extracted from the literature and species-specific parameter information (e.g., home range size, diet, forage and water ingestion rates) the authors estimate contaminant concentrations in venison based on soil and surface water contaminant concentrations and determine the contribution of individual OUs to modeled venison tissue concentrations. Estimated tissue concentrations are calculated through the use of site foraging factors (SFFS) that adjust exposure contributions from individual OUs to account for the size of the OU in relation to the animals home range. The authors then use the venison tissue concentrations to estimate human health risk associated with ingesting venison under both a current and future exposure scenario.

  16. Risk of skin cancer in multiple myeloma patients: a retrospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Robinson, Austin A; Wang, James; Vardanyan, Suzie; Madden, Erik K; Hebroni, Frank; Udd, Kyle A; Spektor, Tanya M; Nosrati, Jason D; Kitto, Alex Z; Zahab, Michael; Cheema, Simrin; Fors, Darron H; Norberg, Adam; Diehl, Joseph; Waterman, Gabriel N; Swift, Regina A; Crowley, John; Berenson, James R

    2016-11-01

    Immunosuppressed patients are known to have an increased incidence of skin cancer. Patients with multiple myeloma (MM) show impaired immune function. In the past, because of poor survival, the incidence of specific secondary primary malignancies such as skin cancer among these patients was difficult to establish. With more effective MM therapies that have emerged in recent years, these patients are living markedly longer, and therefore, it becomes of increasing importance to determine whether their risk of developing other medical problems such as skin cancer is increased. We performed a retrospective cohort study of 205 myeloma patients and 193 age-, race-, and gender-matched control subjects to assess the incidence of skin cancers among patients with MM and determine the specific types of and risk factors for skin cancer. We found that there is an increased occurrence of skin cancer among patients with MM compared to control subjects (26.8% vs. 16.1% in controls; P = 0.009). Among specific types of skin cancer, the proportion of patients with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) was higher than controls (P = 0.016). In addition to MM diagnosis, older age and Caucasian ethnicity were predictors of skin cancer of any type. Furthermore, older age was also a predictor of SCC.

  17. Risk factors for MDS and acute leukemia following total therapy 2 and 3 for multiple myeloma.

    PubMed

    Usmani, Saad Z; Sawyer, Jeffrey; Rosenthal, Adam; Cottler-Fox, Michele; Epstein, Joshua; Yaccoby, Shmuel; Sexton, Rachael; Hoering, Antje; Singh, Zeba; Heuck, Christoph J; Waheed, Sarah; Chauhan, Nabeel; Johann, Donald; Abdallah, Al-Ola; Muzaffar, Jameel; Petty, Nathan; Bailey, Clyde; Crowley, John; van Rhee, Frits; Barlogie, Bart

    2013-06-06

    Lenalidomide has been linked to myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) after autotransplants for myeloma. Total therapy trials (TT; TT2(-/+) thalidomide) and TT3 (TT3a with bortezomib, thalidomide; TT3b with additional lenalidomide) offered the opportunity to examine the contribution of these immune-modulatory agents to MDS-associated cytogenetic abnormalities (MDS-CA) and clinical MDS or acute leukemia ("clinical MDS/AL"). Of 1080 patients with serial cytogenetic studies, MDS-CA occurred in 11% and clinical MDS/AL in 3%. Risk features of MDS-CA included TT3b, age ≥65 years, male gender, levels of β-2-microglobulin >5.5 mg/L, and multiple myeloma relapse. Clinical MDS/AL occurred less frequently in the control arm of TT2 and more often with TT3a and TT3b. Since MDS-CA often antedated clinical disease, periodic cytogenetic monitoring is recommended. Larger CD34 quantities should be collected upfront as the risk of MDS could be reduced by applying higher CD34 doses with transplant. Thus, treatment, host, and myeloma features could be linked to MDS development after therapy for this malignancy. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov: TT3A: NCT00081939, TT3B: NCT00572169.

  18. Risk analysis for roadways subjected to multiple landslide-related hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corominas, Jordi; Mavrouli, Olga

    2014-05-01

    Roadways through mountainous terrain often involve cuts and landslide areas whose stability is precarious and require protection and stabilization works. To optimize the allocation of resources, government and technical offices are increasingly interested in both the risk analysis and assessment. Risk analysis has to consider the hazard occurrence and the consequences. The consequences can be both direct and indirect. The former include the costs regarding the repair of the roadway, the damage of vehicles and the potential fatalities, while the latter refer to the costs related to the diversion of vehicles, the excess of distance travelled, the time differences, and tolls. The type of slope instabilities that may affect a roadway may vary and its effects as well. Most current approaches either consider a single hazardous phenomenon each time, or if applied at small (for example national) scale, they do not take into account local conditions at each section of the roadway. The objective of this work is the development of a simple and comprehensive methodology for the assessment of the risk due to multiple hazards along roadways, integrating different landslide types that include rockfalls, debris flows and considering as well the potential failure of retaining walls. To quantify risk, all hazards are expressed with a common term: their probability of occurrence. The methodology takes into consideration the specific local conditions along the roadway. For rockfalls and debris flow a variety of methods for assessing the probability of occurrence exists. To assess the annual probability of failure of retaining walls we use an indicator-based model that provides a hazard index. The model parameters consist in the design safety factor, and further anchorage design and construction parameters. The probability of failure is evaluated in function of the hazard index and next corrected (in terms of order of magnitude) according to in situ observations for increase of two

  19. Estimation of effective dose and lifetime attributable risk from multiple head CT scans in ventriculoperitoneal shunted children

    PubMed Central

    Aw-Zoretic, J.; Seth, D.; Katzman, G.; Sammet, S.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose The purpose of this review is to determine the averaged effective dose and lifetime attributable risk factor from multiple head computed tomography (CT) dose data on children with ventriculoperitoneal shunts (VPS). Method and materials A total of 422 paediatric head CT exams were found between October 2008 and January 2011 and retrospectively reviewed. The CT dose data was weighted with the latest IRCP 103 conversion factor to obtain the effective dose per study and the averaged effective dose was calculated. Estimates of the lifetime attributable risk were also calculated from the averaged effective dose using a conversion factor from the latest BEIR VII report. Results Our study found the highest effective doses in neonates and the lowest effective doses were observed in the 10–18 years age group. We estimated a 0.007% potential increase risk in neonates and 0.001% potential increased risk in teenagers over the base risk. Conclusion Multiple head CTs in children equates to a slight potential increase risk in lifetime attributable risk over the baseline risk for cancer, slightly higher in neonates relative to teenagers. The potential risks versus clinical benefit must be assessed. PMID:25130177

  20. Randomised Controlled Trial of Parent Groups for Child Antisocial Behaviour Targeting Multiple Risk Factors: The SPOKES Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Scott, Stephen; Sylva, Kathy; Doolan, Moira; Price, Jenny; Jacobs, Brian; Crook, Carolyn; Landau, Sabine

    2010-01-01

    Background: There is a pressing need for cost-effective population-based interventions to tackle early-onset antisocial behaviour. As this is determined by many factors, it would seem logical to devise interventions that address several influences while using an efficient means of delivery. The aim of this trial was to change four risk factors…

  1. Risk of multiple interacting tipping points should encourage rapid CO2 emission reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Yongyang; Lenton, Timothy M.; Lontzek, Thomas S.

    2016-05-01

    Evidence suggests that several elements of the climate system could be tipped into a different state by global warming, causing irreversible economic damages. To address their policy implications, we incorporated five interacting climate tipping points into a stochastic-dynamic integrated assessment model, calibrating their likelihoods and interactions on results from an existing expert elicitation. Here we show that combining realistic assumptions about policymakers’ preferences under uncertainty, with the prospect of multiple future interacting climate tipping points, increases the present social cost of carbon in the model nearly eightfold from US$15 per tCO2 to US$116 per tCO2. Furthermore, passing some tipping points increases the likelihood of other tipping points occurring to such an extent that it abruptly increases the social cost of carbon. The corresponding optimal policy involves an immediate, massive effort to control CO2 emissions, which are stopped by mid-century, leading to climate stabilization at <1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.

  2. [MANAGEMENT OF THE MULTIPLE ENVIRONMENTAL RISK FOR THE HEALTH OF THE POPULATION OF INDUSTRIALIZED CITIES OF THE SVERDLOVSK REGION].

    PubMed

    Kornilkov, A S; Privalova, L I; Kuz'mina, E A; Iarushin, S V; Mazhaeva, T V; Kochneva, N I; Plotko, E G

    2015-01-01

    In the Sverdlovsk region for the assessment and management of environment and health of the population over more than 10 years there is used a methodology for the assessment of the multiple environmental risk, allowing to identify priority routes of toxicants entering the body, to evaluate the possible dose-response relationships and elaborate targeted measures for their correction. In the article there is shown how are effective management decisions, elaborated on the base of the results of the assessment of multiple environmental risk to public health in cities of Pervouralsk and Revda of the Sverdlovsk region and directed to the mitigation of the exposure to chemical factors of the environment.

  3. A diet based on multiple functional concepts improves cardiometabolic risk parameters in healthy subjects

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Different foods can modulate cardiometabolic risk factors in persons already affected by metabolic alterations. The objective of this study was to assess, in healthy overweight individuals, the impact of a diet combining multiple functional concepts on risk markers associated with cardiometabolic diseases (CMD). Methods Fourty-four healthy women and men (50-73 y.o, BMI 25-33, fasting glycemia ≤ 6.1 mmol/L) participated in a randomized crossover intervention comparing a multifunctional (active) diet (AD) with a control diet (CD) devoid of the "active" components. Each diet was consumed during 4 wk with a 4 wk washout period. AD included the following functional concepts: low glycemic impact meals, antioxidant-rich foods, oily fish as source of long-chain omega-3 fatty acids, viscous dietary fibers, soybean and whole barley kernel products, almonds, stanols and a probiotic strain (Lactobacillus plantarum Heal19/DSM15313). Results Although the aim was to improve metabolic markers without promoting body weight loss, minor weight reductions were observed with both diets (0.9-1.8 ± 0.2%; P < 0.05). CD did not modify the metabolic variables measured. AD promoted significant changes in total serum cholesterol (-26 ± 1% vs baseline; P < 0.0001), LDL-cholesterol (-34 ± 1%; P < 0.0001), triglycerides (-19 ± 3%; P = 0.0056), LDL/HDL (-27 ± 2%; P < 0.0001), apoB/apoA1 (-10 ± 2%; P < 0.0001), HbA1c (-2 ± 0.4%; P = 0.0013), hs-CRP (-29 ± 9%; P = 0.0497) and systolic blood pressure (-8 ± 1%¸ P = 0.0123). The differences remained significant after adjustment for weight change. After AD, the Framingham cardiovascular risk estimate was 30 ± 4% (P < 0.0001) lower and the Reynolds cardiovascular risk score, which considers CRP values, decreased by 35 ± 3% (P < 0.0001). Conclusion The improved biomarker levels recorded in healthy individuals following the multifunctional regime suggest preventive potential of this dietary approach against CMD. PMID:22472183

  4. Mastering Uncertainty and Risk at Multiple Time Scales in the Future Electrical Grid

    SciTech Connect

    Chertkov, Michael; Bent, Russell W.; Backhaus, Scott N.

    2012-07-10

    Today's electrical grids enjoy a relatively clean separation of spatio-temporal scales yielding a compartmentalization of grid design, optimization, control and risk assessment allowing for the use of conventional mathematical tools within each area. In contrast, the future grid will incorporate time-intermittent renewable generation, operate via faster electrical markets, and tap the latent control capability at finer grid modeling scales; creating a fundamentally new set of couplings across spatiotemporal scales and requiring revolutionary advances in mathematics techniques to bridge these scales. One example is found in decade-scale grid expansion planning in which today's algorithms assume accurate load forecasts and well-controlled generation. Incorporating intermittent renewable generation creates fluctuating network flows at the hourly time scale, inherently linking the ability of a transmission line to deliver electrical power to hourly operational decisions. New operations-based planning algorithms are required, creating new mathematical challenges. Spatio-temporal scales are also crossed when the future grid's minute-scale fluctuations in network flows (due to intermittent generation) create a disordered state upon which second-scale transient grid dynamics propagate effectively invalidating today's on-line dynamic stability analyses. Addressing this challenge requires new on-line algorithms that use large data streams from new grid sensing technologies to physically aggregate across many spatial scales to create responsive, data-driven dynamic models. Here, we sketch the mathematical foundations of these problems and potential solutions.

  5. Fine Mapping and Functional Analysis of the Multiple Sclerosis Risk Gene CD6

    PubMed Central

    Swaminathan, Bhairavi; Cuapio, Angélica; Alloza, Iraide; Matesanz, Fuencisla; Alcina, Antonio; García-Barcina, Maria; Fedetz, Maria; Fernández, Óscar; Lucas, Miguel; Órpez, Teresa; Pinto-Medel, Mª Jesus; Otaegui, David; Olascoaga, Javier; Urcelay, Elena; Ortiz, Miguel A.; Arroyo, Rafael; Oksenberg, Jorge R.; Antigüedad, Alfredo; Tolosa, Eva; Vandenbroeck, Koen

    2013-01-01

    CD6 has recently been identified and validated as risk gene for multiple sclerosis (MS), based on the association of a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs17824933, located in intron 1. CD6 is a cell surface scavenger receptor involved in T-cell activation and proliferation, as well as in thymocyte differentiation. In this study, we performed a haptag SNP screen of the CD6 gene locus using a total of thirteen tagging SNPs, of which three were non-synonymous SNPs, and replicated the recently reported GWAS SNP rs650258 in a Spanish-Basque collection of 814 controls and 823 cases. Validation of the six most strongly associated SNPs was performed in an independent collection of 2265 MS patients and 2600 healthy controls. We identified association of haplotypes composed of two non-synonymous SNPs [rs11230563 (R225W) and rs2074225 (A257V)] in the 2nd SRCR domain with susceptibility to MS (Pmax(T) permutation = 1×10−4). The effect of these haplotypes on CD6 surface expression and cytokine secretion was also tested. The analysis showed significantly different CD6 expression patterns in the distinct cell subsets, i.e. – CD4+ naïve cells, P = 0.0001; CD8+ naïve cells, P<0.0001; CD4+ and CD8+ central memory cells, P = 0.01 and 0.05, respectively; and natural killer T (NKT) cells, P = 0.02; with the protective haplotype (RA) showing higher expression of CD6. However, no significant changes were observed in natural killer (NK) cells, effector memory and terminally differentiated effector memory T cells. Our findings reveal that this new MS-associated CD6 risk haplotype significantly modifies expression of CD6 on CD4+ and CD8+ T cells. PMID:23638056

  6. Interferon-β therapy and risk of thrombocytopenia in multiple sclerosis patients.

    PubMed

    Koudriavtseva, Tatiana; Plantone, Domenico; Renna, Rosaria; Mandoj, Chiara; Giannarelli, Diana; Mainero, Caterina

    2015-12-01

    Thrombocytopenia is a well-described adverse event of several disease-modifying therapies (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS). On the other hand, an increased prevalence of MS has been reported in patients with immune thrombocytopenia. In this retrospective, cross-sectional, case-control study we evaluated in a heterogeneous MS cohort: (1) the prevalence of thrombocytopenia in comparison with sex- and age-matched controls; (2) the relationship between thrombocytopenia and patients' demographic, clinical characteristics; (3) the risk for thrombocytopenia in relation to DMT. 187 consecutive MS patients [51 males, mean age (±SD) 44.5 ± 10.7 years] and 200 controls (56 males, mean age 45.5 ± 12 years) were included. Thrombocytopenia was defined as platelet count lower than normal laboratory values (130-400 × 10(9)/L). The prevalence of thrombocytopenia was significantly higher in MS patients than in controls (7 vs. 2.5 %, p = 0.04). Thrombocytopenia was present only in relapsing-remitting MS cases, and significantly associated with lower EDSS (p = 0.002) and with a trend for shorter disease duration (p = 0.06). It was more frequent in patients on high-dose interferon-β therapy compared with those on low-dose interferon-β therapy, other therapies or untreated patients (p = 0.02). High-dose interferon-β therapy was associated with more than eightfold increase in the risk for thrombocytopenia (odds ratio 8.60, 95 % confidence interval: 1.01-74.48 adjusted for EDSS, disease duration and type of disease). The prevalence of thrombocytopenia was increased in MS patients treated with DMT. High-dose interferon-β therapy is the variable most strongly associated with thrombocytopenia.

  7. Toward core inter-professional health promotion competencies to address the non-communicable diseases and their risk factors through knowledge translation: Curriculum content assessment

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background To increase the global impact of health promotion related to non-communicable diseases, health professionals need evidence-based core competencies in health assessment and lifestyle behavior change. Assessment of health promotion curricula by health professional programs is a first step. Such program assessment is a means of 1. demonstrating collective commitment across health professionals to prevent non-communicable diseases; 2. addressing the knowledge translation gap between what is known about non-communicable diseases and their risk factors consistent with ‘best’ practice; and, 3. establishing core health-based competencies in the entry-level curricula of established health professions. Discussion Consistent with the World Health Organization’s definition of health (i.e., physical, emotional and social wellbeing) and the Ottawa Charter, health promotion competencies are those that support health rather than reduce signs and symptoms primarily. A process algorithm to guide the implementation of health promotion competencies by health professionals is described. The algorithm outlines steps from the initial assessment of a patient’s/client’s health and the indications for health behavior change, to the determination of whether that health professional assumes primary responsibility for implementing health behavior change interventions or refers the patient/client to others. An evidence-based template for assessment of the health promotion curriculum content of health professional education programs is outlined. It includes clinically-relevant behavior change theory; health assessment/examination tools; and health behavior change strategies/interventions that can be readily integrated into health professionals’ practices. Summary Assessment of the curricula in health professional education programs with respect to health promotion competencies is a compelling and potentially cost-effective initial means of preventing and reversing non

  8. How to ensure that the results of climate risk analysis make a difference? - Experience from applied research addressing the challenges of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Zebisch, Marc; Becker, Daniel; Pedoth, Lydia; Renner, Kathrin; Kienberger, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    Changing climate conditions may have beneficial or adverse effects on the social-ecological systems we are living in. In any case, the possible effects result from complex and interlinked physical and social processes embedded in these systems. Traditional research addresses these bio-physical and societal issues in a separate way. Therefore, in general, studies on risks related to climate change are still mono-disciplinary in nature with an increasing amount of work following a multi-disciplinary approach. The quality and usefulness of the results of such research for policy or decision making in practice may further be limited by study designs that do not acknowledge appropriately the significance of integrating or at least mixing qualitative and quantitative information and knowledge. Finally, the acceptance of study results - particularly when containing some kind of assessments - is often endangered by insufficient and / or late involvement of stakeholders and users. The above mentioned limitations have often been brought up in the recent past. However, despite that a certain consensus could be achieved in the last years recognising the need to tackle these issues, little progress has been made in terms of implementation within the context of (research) studies. This paper elaborates in detail on reasons that hamper the application of - interdisciplinary (i.e. natural and social science), - trans-disciplinary (i.e. co-production of knowledge) and - integrative (i.e. combining qualitative and quantitative approaches) work. It is based on the experience gained through a number of applied climate change vulnerability studies carried out within the context of various GIZ-financed development cooperation projects, a consultancy project for the German Environment Agency as well as the workshop series INQUIMUS, which tackles particularly the issues of mixing qualitative and quantitative research approaches. Potentials and constraints of possible attempts for

  9. Polymorphismsof the CD24 Gene Are Associated with Risk of Multiple Sclerosis: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Braliou, Georgia G.; Pantavou, Katerina G.; Kontou, Panagiota I.; Bagos, Pantelis G.

    2015-01-01

    CD24 is a cell-surface protein mainly expressed in cells of the immune and central nervous system (CNS), cells that play a critical role in the development of multiple sclerosis (MS). In the current study, we investigated four polymorphisms of the CD24 gene regarding their associations with MS. To this end, univariate and multivariate meta-analysis were applied along with modifications to include data from family-trios so as to increase the robustness of the meta-analysis. We found that the polymorphism 226 C>T (Ala57Val) of the CD24 gene is associated with MS according to the recessive mode of inheritance (odds ratio = 1.75; 95% CI: 1.09, 2.81). Moreover, the 1527–1528 TG>del polymorphism is inversely associated with MS according to the dominant mode of inheritance (odds ratio = 0.57; 95% CI 0.39, 0.83). Conversely, the 1056 A>G and 1626 A>G polymorphisms were not found to be associated with MS. We conclude that the CD24 226 C>T polymorphism increases the risk of MS, while the 1527–1528 TG>del polymorphism seems to have a protective role against MS, suggesting that these two polymorphisms can be used as predictive biomarkers for MS development. PMID:26039238

  10. The multiple stressor ecological risk assessment for the mercury-contaminated South River and upper Shenandoah River using the Bayesian network-relative risk model.

    PubMed

    Landis, Wayne G; Ayre, Kimberley K; Johns, Annie F; Summers, Heather M; Stinson, Jonah; Harris, Meagan J; Herring, Carlie E; Markiewicz, April J

    2017-01-01

    We have conducted a regional scale risk assessment using the Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model (BN-RRM) to calculate the ecological risks to the South River and upper Shenandoah River study area. Four biological endpoints (smallmouth bass, white sucker, Belted Kingfisher, and Carolina Wren) and 4 abiotic endpoints (Fishing River Use, Swimming River Use, Boating River Use, and Water Quality Standards) were included in this risk assessment, based on stakeholder input. Although mercury (Hg) contamination was the original impetus for the site being remediated, other chemical and physical stressors were evaluated. There were 3 primary conclusions from the BN-RRM results. First, risk varies according to location, type and quality of habitat, and exposure to stressors within the landscape. The patterns of risk can be evaluated with reasonable certitude. Second, overall risk to abiotic endpoints was greater than overall risk to biotic endpoints. By including both biotic and abiotic endpoints, we are able to compare risk to endpoints that represent a wide range of stakeholder values. Third, whereas Hg reduction is the regulatory priority for the South River, Hg is not the only stressor driving risk to the endpoints. Ecological and habitat stressors contribute risk to the endpoints and should be considered when managing this site. This research provides the foundation for evaluating the risks of multiple stressors of the South River to a variety of endpoints. From this foundation, tools for the evaluation of management options and an adaptive management tools have been forged. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:85-99. © 2016 SETAC.

  11. Scenario-based modeling for multiple allocation hub location problem under disruption risk: multiple cuts Benders decomposition approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yahyaei, Mohsen; Bashiri, Mahdi

    2017-03-01

    The hub location problem arises in a variety of domains such as transportation and telecommunication systems. In many real-world situations, hub facilities are subject to disruption. This paper deals with the multiple allocation hub location problem in the presence of facilities failure. To model the problem, a two-stage stochastic formulation is developed. In the proposed model, the number of scenarios grows exponentially with the number of facilities. To alleviate this issue, two approaches are applied simultaneously. The first approach is to apply sample average approximation to approximate the two stochastic problem via sampling. Then, by applying the multiple cuts Benders decomposition approach, computational performance is enhanced. Numerical studies show the effective performance of the SAA in terms of optimality gap for small problem instances with numerous scenarios. Moreover, performance of multi-cut Benders decomposition is assessed through comparison with the classic version and the computational results reveal the superiority of the multi-cut approach regarding the computational time and number of iterations.

  12. Patterns of Service Use, Individual and Contextual Risk Factors, and Resilience among Adolescents Using Multiple Psychosocial Services

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ungar, Michael; Liebenberg, Linda; Dudding, Peter; Armstrong, Mary; van de Vijver, Fons J. R.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Very little research has examined the relationship between resilience, risk, and the service use patterns of adolescents with complex needs who use multiple formal and mandated services such as child welfare, mental health, juvenile justice, and special educational supports. This article reports on a study of 497 adolescents in…

  13. Risk factors for fecal colonization with multiple distinct strains of Escherichia coli among long-term care facility residents.

    PubMed

    Lautenbach, Ebbing; Tolomeo, Pam; Black, Nicole; Maslow, Joel N

    2009-05-01

    Of 49 long-term care facility residents, 21 (43%) were colonized with 2 or more distinct strains of Escherichia coli. There were no significant risk factors for colonization with multiple strains of E. coli. These results suggest that future efforts to efficiently identify the diversity of colonizing strains will be challenging.

  14. Multiple Risks and Educational Well Being: A Population-Based Investigation of Threats to Early School Success

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rouse, Heather L.; Fantuzzo, John W.

    2009-01-01

    The current research study used a developmental-epidemiological approach to examine the prevalence and impact of multiple risks on educational outcomes for an entire population of second grade children in a low-income, urban public school system. The Kids Integrated Data System (KIDS) provided information about children's entire histories of…

  15. A Preliminary Investigation into the Added Value of Multiple Gates and Informants in Universal Screening for Behavioral and Emotional Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dowdy, Erin; Dever, Bridget V.; Raines, Tara C.; Moffa, Kathryn

    2016-01-01

    Mental health screening in schools is a progressive practice to identify students for prevention and intervention services. Multiple gating procedures, in which students are provided more intensive assessments following initial identification of risk, are aligned with prevention science and poised to enhance multi-tiered systems of support. Yet,…

  16. Association of HLA Genetic Risk Burden With Disease Phenotypes in Multiple Sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Isobe, Noriko; Keshavan, Anisha; Gourraud, Pierre-Antoine; Zhu, Alyssa H.; Datta, Esha; Schlaeger, Regina; Caillier, Stacy J.; Santaniello, Adam; Lizée, Antoine; Himmelstein, Daniel S.; Baranzini, Sergio E.; Hollenbach, Jill; Cree, Bruce A. C.; Hauser, Stephen L.; Oksenberg, Jorge R.; Henry, Roland G.

    2016-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Although multiple HLA alleles associated with multiple sclerosis (MS) risk have been identified, genotype-phenotype studies in the HLA region remain scarce and inconclusive. OBJECTIVES To investigate whether MS risk-associated HLA alleles also affect disease phenotypes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A cross-sectional, case-control study comprising 652 patients with MS who had comprehensive phenotypic information and 455 individuals of European origin serving as controls was conducted at a single academic research site. Patients evaluated at the Multiple Sclerosis Center at University of California, San Francisco between July 2004 and September 2005 were invited to participate. Spinal cord imaging in the data set was acquired between July 2013 and March 2014; analysis was performed between December 2014 and December 2015. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Cumulative HLA genetic burden (HLAGB) calculated using the most updated MS-associated HLA alleles vs clinical and magnetic resonance imaging outcomes, including age at onset, disease severity, conversion time from clinically isolated syndrome to clinically definite MS, fractions of cortical and subcortical gray matter and cerebral white matter, brain lesion volume, spinal cord gray and white matter areas, upper cervical cord area, and the ratio of gray matter to the upper cervical cord area. Multivariate modeling was applied separately for each sex data set. RESULTS Of the 652 patients with MS, 586 had no missing genetic data and were included in the HLAGB analysis. In these 586 patients (404 women [68.9%]; mean [SD] age at disease onset, 33.6 [9.4] years), HLAGB was higher than in controls (median [IQR], 0.7 [0–1.4] and 0 [−0.3 to 0.5], respectively; P = 1.8 × 10−27). A total of 619 (95.8%) had relapsing-onset MS and 27 (4.2%) had progressive-onset MS. No significant difference was observed between relapsing-onset MS and primary progressive MS. A higher HLAGB was associated with younger age at onset

  17. Commentary: How can family-based quasi-experimental designs and national registers be used to address confounding in risk factor studies of psychopathology? A reflection on Obel et al. (2016).

    PubMed

    Larsson, Henrik

    2016-04-01

    Standard observational studies have reported a robust correlation between maternal smoking during pregnancy and risk of ADHD in offspring. In the accompanying article, Obel et al. used sibling-comparisons to explore the extent to which unmeasured familial confounding explains this association. This commentary highlights three important implications of the study. At a general level, Obel et al. illustrates how (1) family-based quasi-experimental designs and (2) national registers can be used to address confounding in risk factor studies of psychopathology. At a more specific level, the study suggests that maternal smoking during pregnancy is probably not a causal risk factor for ADHD.

  18. Multiple Risk Associated with Prenatal HIV Exposure: An Interagency, Community-Focused Demonstration (Project RISK). Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Donnell, Karen J.; Fair, Cynthia D.

    This report describes the activities and outcomes of Project RISK, a 3+2 years service delivery demonstration and replication project that was based on the assumption that infants of HIV positive women are at significant developmental risk from prenatal exposure to HIV infection and, possibly, teratogenic drugs, as well as from the complex…

  19. Human health and the environment can't wait for reform: current opportunities for the federal government and states to address chemical risks under the Toxic Substances Control Act.

    PubMed

    Trevisan, Lauren

    2011-01-01

    Expressing its concern about growing rates of cancer and other diseases, coupled with the lack of data about the effect of the thousands of chemicals used in U.S. society, in 1976 Congress enacted the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA). Congress intended for TSCA to shed new light on chemical risks and provide the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) with a set of tools to address those risks and protect human health and the environment. In the years since TSCA's passage, the procedural hurdles and the difficult-to-meet legal standards built into the statute, along with a court decision rejecting EPA's use of its authority to ban dangerous chemicals, have impeded EPA's ability to regulate chemical use and manufacture. This Comment argues that both the EPA and state governments have the authority to act now to address the risks posed by dangerous chemicals. By utilizing certain sections of the statute in new and aggressive ways, EPA can effectively address chemical risks. Further, this Comment argues that TSCA's preemption provision affords states leeway to continue to regulate the use of chemicals within their borders. Though reform of TSCA is necessary, EPA and states can effectively protect against chemical risks in the near-term by using the full extent of their authority under the current law.

  20. Teaching Mathematics That Addresses Learners' Multiple Intelligences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gouws, E.; Dicker, A-M.

    2011-01-01

    To meet the demands of our highly technological and globally competitive society, it is becoming increasingly important for all learners in South Africa to obtain skills and knowledge in mathematics. However, South Africa performed the worst of all the countries who participated in the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMMS).…

  1. Risk Factors for Multiple Organ Dysfunction Syndrome in Severe Stroke Patients

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Shuna; Li, Yue; Yuan, Junliang; Yang, Lei; Li, Shujuan; Hu, Wenli

    2016-01-01

    Background Severe stroke patients have poor clinical outcome which may be associated with development of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS). Therefore, the aim of our study was to investigate independent risk factors for development of MODS in severe stroke patients. Methods Ninety seven severe stroke patients were prospective recruited from Jan 2011 to Jun 2015. The development of MODS was identified by Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (score ≥ 3, at least two organs), which was assessed on day 1, 4, 7, 10 and 14 after admission. Baseline characteristics, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, Glasgow coma score (GCS) and cerebral imaging parameters were collected at admission. Cox regression was performed to determine predictors for the development of MODS. Medical complications after admission and in-hospital mortality were also investigated. Results 33 (34%) patients were in MODS group and 64 (66%) were in non-MODS group within 14 days after admission. Patients in MODS group had more smoker (51.5% vs 28.1%, p = 0.023), higher NIHSS score (23.48 ± 6.12 vs 19.81 ± 4.83, p = 0.004), higher APACHE II score (18.70 ± 5.18 vs 15.64 ± 4.36, p = 0.003) and lower GCS score (6.33 ± 2.48 vs 8.14 ± 2.73, p = 0.002). They also had higher rate of infarction in multi vascular territories (36.4% vs 10.9%, p = 0.003). The most common complication in all patients was pulmonary infection, while complication scores were comparable between two groups. Patients with MODS had higher in-hospital mortality (69.7% vs 9.4%, p = 0.000). In Cox regression, NIHSS score (RR = 1.084, 95% CI 1.019–1.153) and infarction in multi vascular territories (RR = 2.345 95% CI 1.105–4.978) were independent risk factors for development of MODS. Conclusions In acute phase of stroke, NIHSS score and infarction in multi vascular territories predicted MODS in severe stroke patients. Moreover, patients with MODS had higher in-hospital mortality

  2. Buccal Cell Cytokeratin 14 Correlates with Multiple Blood Biomarkers of Alzheimer's Disease Risk.

    PubMed

    Leifert, Wayne R; Nguyen, Tori; Rembach, Alan; Martins, Ralph; Rainey-Smith, Stephanie; Masters, Colin L; Ames, David; Rowe, Christopher C; Macaulay, S Lance; François, Maxime; Fenech, Michael F

    2015-01-01

    Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) may reflect early stages of neurodegenerative disorders such as Alzheimer's disease (AD). Our hypothesis was that cytokeratin 14 (CK14) expression could be used with blood-based biomarkers such as homocysteine, vitamin B12, and folate to identify individuals with MCI or AD from the Australian Imaging, Biomarkers and Lifestyle (AIBL) flagship study of aging. Buccal cells from 54 individuals were analyzed by a newly developed method that is rapid, automated, and quantitative for buccal cell CK14 expression levels. CK14 was negatively correlated with plasma Mg²⁺ and LDL, while positively correlated with vitamin B12, red cell hematocrit/volume, and basophils in the MCI group and positively correlated with insulin and vitamin B12 in the AD group. The combined biomarker panel (CK14 expression, plasma vitamin B12, and homocysteine) was significantly lower in the MCI (p = 0.003) and AD (p = 0.0001) groups compared with controls. Receiver-operating characteristic curves yielded area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.829 for the MCI (p = 0.002) group and 0.856 for the AD (p = 0.0003) group. These complex associations of multiple related parameters highlight the differences between the MCI and AD cohorts and possibly an underlying metabolic pathology associated with the development of early memory impairment. The changes in buccal cell CK14 expression observed in this pilot study supports previous results suggesting the peripheral biomarkers and metabolic changes are not restricted to brain pathology alone in MCI and AD and could prove useful as a potential biomarker in identifying individuals with an increased risk of developing MCI and eventually AD.

  3. Creating a strategy for science-based national policy: Addressing conflicting views on the health risk of low-level ionizing radiation. Final report, Wingspread Conference

    SciTech Connect

    McClellan, Roger O.; Apple, Martin A.

    1998-03-03

    Significant cancer risk for adults exposed to more than 100 millisieverts (10 REM) of ionizing radiation. More research on low-level ionizing radiation is needed in molecular and cellular mechanisms of injury and ongoing exposed populations. Implementation costs should be considered in regulating low-level ionizing radiation. Comparative risk assessment is a powerful tool for risk-based policy formation, and conflicting legal statutes should become harmonized for radiation regulation. More public dialog on low-level radiation is needed. A high level commission should evaluate radiation hazard control practices.

  4. Estimating the risks of multiple, covarying stressors in the National Lakes Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The National Lakes Assessment (NLA) used relative and attributable risks to measure the apparent nationwide effects of excess nitrogen, reduced lakeshore habitat, and other stressors, on planktonic assemblages in lakes. The risk measures, borrowed from human health research,...

  5. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    PubMed

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health.

  6. Risk Knowledge in Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis (RIKNO 1.0) - Development of an Outcome Instrument for Educational Interventions

    PubMed Central

    Heesen, C.; Kasper, J.; Fischer, K.; Köpke, S.; Rahn, A.; Backhus, I.; Poettgen, J.; Vahter, L.; Drulovic, J.; Van Nunen, A.; Beckmann, Y.; Liethmann, K.; Giordano, A.; Solari, A.

    2015-01-01

    Background Adequate risk knowledge of patients is a prerequisite for shared decision making but few attempts have been made to develop assessment tools. Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a chronic inflammatory disease of young adults with an increasing number of partially effective immunotherapies and therefore a paradigmatic disease to study patient involvement. Objective/methods Based on an item bank of MS risk knowledge items and patient feedback including perceived relevance we developed a risk knowledge questionnaire for relapsing remitting (RR) MS (RIKNO 1.0) which was a primary outcome measure in a patient education trial (192 early RRMS patients). Results Fourteen of the RIKNO 1.0 multiple-choice items were selected based on patient perceived relevance and item difficulty indices, and five on expert opinion. Mean item difficulty was 0.58, ranging from 0.14 to 0.79. Mean RIKNO 1.0 score increased after the educational intervention from 10.6 to 12.4 (p = 0.0003). Selected items were particularly difficult (e.g. those on absolute risk reductions of having a second relapse) and were answered correctly in only 30% of the patients, even after the intervention. Conclusion Despite its high difficulty, RIKNO 1.0 is a responsive instrument to assess risk knowledge in RRMS patients participating in educational interventions. PMID:26430887

  7. Addressing Environmental Health Inequalities

    PubMed Central

    Gouveia, Nelson

    2016-01-01

    Environmental health inequalities refer to health hazards disproportionately or unfairly distributed among the most vulnerable social groups, which are generally the most discriminated, poor populations and minorities affected by environmental risks. Although it has been known for a long time that health and disease are socially determined, only recently has this idea been incorporated into the conceptual and practical framework for the formulation of policies and strategies regarding health. In this Special Issue of the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (IJERPH), “Addressing Environmental Health Inequalities—Proceedings from the ISEE Conference 2015”, we incorporate nine papers that were presented at the 27th Conference of the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology (ISEE), held in Sao Paulo, Brazil, in 2015. This small collection of articles provides a brief overview of the different aspects of this topic. Addressing environmental health inequalities is important for the transformation of our reality and for changing the actual development model towards more just, democratic, and sustainable societies driven by another form of relationship between nature, economy, science, and politics. PMID:27618906

  8. Citation searching: a systematic review case study of multiple risk behaviour interventions

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The value of citation searches as part of the systematic review process is currently unknown. While the major guides to conducting systematic reviews state that citation searching should be carried out in addition to searching bibliographic databases there are still few studies in the literature that support this view. Rather than using a predefined search strategy to retrieve studies, citation searching uses known relevant papers to identify further papers. Methods We describe a case study about the effectiveness of using the citation sources Google Scholar, Scopus, Web of Science and OVIDSP MEDLINE to identify records for inclusion in a systematic review. We used the 40 included studies identified by traditional database searches from one systematic review of interventions for multiple risk behaviours. We searched for each of the included studies in the four citation sources to retrieve the details of all papers that have cited these studies. We carried out two analyses; the first was to examine the overlap between the four citation sources to identify which citation tool was the most useful; the second was to investigate whether the citation searches identified any relevant records in addition to those retrieved by the original database searches. Results The highest number of citations was retrieved from Google Scholar (1680), followed by Scopus (1173), then Web of Science (1095) and lastly OVIDSP (213). To retrieve all the records identified by the citation tracking searching all four resources was required. Google Scholar identified the highest number of unique citations. The citation tracking identified 9 studies that met the review’s inclusion criteria. Eight of these had already been identified by the traditional databases searches and identified in the screening process while the ninth was not available in any of the databases when the original searches were carried out. It would, however, have been identified by two of the database search

  9. Complex kidneys for complex patients: the risk associated with transplantation of kidneys with multiple arteries into obese patients.

    PubMed

    Nath, J; Mastoridis, S; van Dellen, D; Guy, A J; McGrogan, D G; Krishnan, H; Pattenden, C; Inston, N G; Ready, A R

    2015-03-01

    Conflicting evidence surrounds clinical outcomes in obese individuals after transplantation; nonetheless, many are denied the opportunity to receive a transplant. Allografts with complex vascular anatomy are regularly used in both deceased and living donor settings. We established the risk of transplanting kidneys with multiple renal arteries into obese recipients. A retrospective analysis of data from 1095 patients undergoing renal transplantation between January 2004 and July 2013 at a single centre was conducted. Of these, 24.2% were obese (body mass index >30 kg/m(2)), whereas 25.1% of kidneys transplanted had multiple arteries, thereby making the transplantation of kidneys of complex anatomy into obese recipients a relatively common clinical occurrence. Vessel multiplicity was associated with inferior 1-year graft survival (85.8.% vs 92.1%, P = .004). Obese patients had worse 1-graft survival compared to those of normal BMI (86.8% vs 93.8%, P = .001). The risk of vascular complications and of graft loss within a year after transplantation were greater when grafts with multiple arteries were transplanted into obese recipients as compared to their nonobese counterparts (RR 2.00, CI 95% 1.07-3.65, and RR 1.95, CI 95% 1.02-3.65). Additionally, obese patients faced significantly higher risk of graft loss if receiving a kidney with multiple arteries compared to one of normal anatomy (RR 1.97, 95% CI 1.02-3.72). Thus, obese patients receiving complex anatomy kidneys face poorer outcomes, which should be considered when allocating organs, seeking consent, and arranging for aftercare.

  10. MANBA, CXCR5, SOX8, RPS6KB1 and ZBTB46 are genetic risk loci for multiple sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Lill, Christina M; Schjeide, Brit-Maren M; Graetz, Christine; Ban, Maria; Alcina, Antonio; Ortiz, Miguel A; Pérez, Jennifer; Damotte, Vincent; Booth, David; Lopez de Lapuente, Aitzkoa; Broer, Linda; Schilling, Marcel; Akkad, Denis A; Aktas, Orhan; Alloza, Iraide; Antigüedad, Alfredo; Arroyo, Rafa; Blaschke, Paul; Buttmann, Mathias; Chan, Andrew; Compston, Alastair; Cournu-Rebeix, Isabelle; Dörner, Thomas; Epplen, Joerg T; Fernández, Óscar; Gerdes, Lisa-Ann; Guillot-Noël, Léna; Hartung, Hans-Peter; Hoffjan, Sabine; Izquierdo, Guillermo; Kemppinen, Anu; Kroner, Antje; Kubisch, Christian; Kümpfel, Tania; Li, Shu-Chen; Lindenberger, Ulman; Lohse, Peter; Lubetzki, Catherine; Luessi, Felix; Malhotra, Sunny; Mescheriakova, Julia; Montalban, Xavier; Papeix, Caroline; Paredes, Lidia F; Rieckmann, Peter; Steinhagen-Thiessen, Elisabeth; Winkelmann, Alexander; Zettl, Uwe K; Hintzen, Rogier; Vandenbroeck, Koen; Stewart, Graeme; Fontaine, Bertrand; Comabella, Manuel; Urcelay, Elena; Matesanz, Fuencisla; Sawcer, Stephen; Bertram, Lars; Zipp, Frauke

    2013-06-01

    A recent genome-wide association study reported five loci for which there was strong, but sub-genome-wide significant evidence for association with multiple sclerosis risk. The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of these potential risk loci in a large and independent data set of ≈ 20,000 subjects. We tested five single nucleotide polymorphisms rs228614 (MANBA), rs630923 (CXCR5), rs2744148 (SOX8), rs180515 (RPS6KB1), and rs6062314 (ZBTB46) for association with multiple sclerosis risk in a total of 8499 cases with multiple sclerosis, 8765 unrelated control subjects and 958 trios of European descent. In addition, we assessed the overall evidence for association by combining these newly generated data with the results from the original genome-wide association study by meta-analysis. All five tested single nucleotide polymorphisms showed consistent and statistically significant evidence for association with multiple sclerosis in our validation data sets (rs228614: odds ratio = 0.91, P = 2.4 × 10(-6); rs630923: odds ratio = 0.89, P = 1.2 × 10(-4); rs2744148: odds ratio = 1.14, P = 1.8 × 10(-6); rs180515: odds ratio = 1.12, P = 5.2 × 10(-7); rs6062314: odds ratio = 0.90, P = 4.3 × 10(-3)). Combining our data with results from the previous genome-wide association study by meta-analysis, the evidence for association was strengthened further, surpassing the threshold for genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10(-8)) in each case. Our study provides compelling evidence that these five loci are genuine multiple sclerosis susceptibility loci. These results may eventually lead to a better understanding of the underlying disease pathophysiology.

  11. MANBA, CXCR5, SOX8, RPS6KB1 and ZBTB46 are genetic risk loci for multiple sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Lill, Christina M.; Schjeide, Brit-Maren M.; Graetz, Christiane; Ban, Maria; Alcina, Antonio; Ortiz, Miguel A.; Pérez, Jennifer; Damotte, Vincent; Booth, David; Lopez de Lapuente, Aitzkoa; Broer, Linda; Schilling, Marcel; Akkad, Denis A.; Aktas, Orhan; Alloza, Iraide; Antigüedad, Alfredo; Arroyo, Rafa; Blaschke, Paul; Buttmann, Mathias; Chan, Andrew; Compston, Alastair; Cournu-Rebeix, Isabelle; Dörner, Thomas; Epplen, Joerg T.; Fernández, Óscar; Gerdes, Lisa-Ann; Guillot-Noël, Léna; Hartung, Hans-Peter; Hoffjan, Sabine; Izquierdo, Guillermo; Kemppinen, Anu; Kroner, Antje; Kubisch, Christian; Kümpfel, Tania; Li, Shu-Chen; Lindenberger, Ulman; Lohse, Peter; Lubetzki, Catherine; Luessi, Felix; Malhotra, Sunny; Mescheriakova, Julia; Montalban, Xavier; Papeix, Caroline; Paredes, Lidia F.; Rieckmann, Peter; Steinhagen-Thiessen, Elisabeth; Winkelmann, Alexander; Zettl, Uwe K.; Hintzen, Rogier; Vandenbroeck, Koen; Stewart, Graeme; Fontaine, Bertrand; Comabella, Manuel; Urcelay, Elena; Matesanz, Fuencisla; Sawcer, Stephen; Bertram, Lars; Zipp, Frauke

    2013-01-01

    A recent genome-wide association study reported five loci for which there was strong, but sub-genome-wide significant evidence for association with multiple sclerosis risk. The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of these potential risk loci in a large and independent data set of ∼20 000 subjects. We tested five single nucleotide polymorphisms rs228614 (MANBA), rs630923 (CXCR5), rs2744148 (SOX8), rs180515 (RPS6KB1), and rs6062314 (ZBTB46) for association with multiple sclerosis risk in a total of 8499 cases with multiple sclerosis, 8765 unrelated control subjects and 958 trios of European descent. In addition, we assessed the overall evidence for association by combining these newly generated data with the results from the original genome-wide association study by meta-analysis. All five tested single nucleotide polymorphisms showed consistent and statistically significant evidence for association with multiple sclerosis in our validation data sets (rs228614: odds ratio = 0.91, P = 2.4 × 10−6; rs630923: odds ratio = 0.89, P = 1.2 × 10−4; rs2744148: odds ratio = 1.14, P = 1.8 × 10−6; rs180515: odds ratio = 1.12, P = 5.2 × 10−7; rs6062314: odds ratio = 0.90, P = 4.3 × 10−3). Combining our data with results from the previous genome-wide association study by meta-analysis, the evidence for association was strengthened further, surpassing the threshold for genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10−8) in each case. Our study provides compelling evidence that these five loci are genuine multiple sclerosis susceptibility loci. These results may eventually lead to a better understanding of the underlying disease pathophysiology. PMID:23739915

  12. Field data and numerical modeling: A multiple lines of evidence approach for assessing vapor intrusion exposure risks.

    PubMed

    Pennell, Kelly G; Scammell, Madeleine K; McClean, Michael D; Suuberg, Eric M; Moradi, Ali; Roghani, Mohammadyousef; Ames, Jennifer; Friguglietti, Leigh; Indeglia, Paul A; Shen, Rui; Yao, Yijun; Heiger-Bernays, Wendy J

    2016-06-15

    USEPA recommends a multiple lines of evidence approach to make informed decisions at vapor intrusion sites because the vapor intrusion pathway is notoriously difficult to characterize. Our study uses this approach by incorporating groundwater, soil gas, indoor air field measurements and numerical models to evaluate vapor intrusion exposure risks in a Metro-Boston neighborhood known to exhibit lower than anticipated indoor air concentrations based on groundwater concentrations. We collected and evaluated five rounds of field sampling data over the period of one year. Field data results show a steep gradient in soil gas concentrations near the groundwater surface; however as the depth decreases, soil gas concentration gradients also decrease. Together, the field data and the numerical model results suggest that a subsurface feature is limiting vapor transport into indoor air spaces at the study site and that groundwater concentrations are not appropriate indicators of vapor intrusion exposure risks in this neighborhood. This research also reveals the importance of including relevant physical models when evaluating vapor intrusion exposure risks using the multiple lines of evidence approach. Overall, the findings provide insight about how the multiple lines of evidence approach can be used to inform decisions by using field data collected using regulatory-relevant sampling techniques, and a well-established 3-D vapor intrusion model.

  13. Schizophrenia-associated methylomic variation: molecular signatures of disease and polygenic risk burden across multiple brain regions

    PubMed Central

    Viana, Joana; Hannon, Eilis; Dempster, Emma; Pidsley, Ruth; Macdonald, Ruby; Knox, Olivia; Spiers, Helen; Troakes, Claire; Al-Saraj, Safa; Turecki, Gustavo; Schalkwyk, Leonard C.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Genetic association studies provide evidence for a substantial polygenic component to schizophrenia, although the neurobiological mechanisms underlying the disorder remain largely undefined. Building on recent studies supporting a role for developmentally regulated epigenetic variation in the molecular aetiology of schizophrenia, this study aimed to identify epigenetic variation associated with both a diagnosis of schizophrenia and elevated polygenic risk burden for the disease across multiple brain regions. Genome-wide DNA methylation was quantified in 262 post-mortem brain samples, representing tissue from four brain regions (prefrontal cortex, striatum, hippocampus and cerebellum) from 41 schizophrenia patients and 47 controls. We identified multiple disease-associated and polygenic risk score-associated differentially methylated positions and regions, which are not enriched in genomic regions identified in genetic studies of schizophrenia and do not reflect direct genetic effects on DNA methylation. Our study represents the first analysis of epigenetic variation associated with schizophrenia across multiple brain regions and highlights the utility of polygenic risk scores for identifying molecular pathways associated with aetiological variation in complex disease. PMID:28011714

  14. [Keynote address: Climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Forrister, D.

    1994-12-31

    Broadly speaking, the climate issue is moving from talk to action both in the United States and internationally. While few nations have adopted strict controls or stiff new taxes, a number of them are developing action plans that are making clear their intention to ramp up activity between now and the year 2000... and beyond. There are sensible, economically efficient strategies to be undertaken in the near term that offer the possibility, in many countries, to avoid more draconian measures. These strategies are by-and-large the same measures that the National Academy of Sciences recommended in a 1991 report called, Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming. The author thinks the Academy`s most important policy contribution was how it recommended the nations act in the face of uncertain science and high risks--that cost effective measures are adopted as cheap insurance... just as nations insure against other high risk, low certainty possibilities, like catastrophic health insurance, auto insurance, and fire insurance. This insurance theme is still right. First, the author addresses how the international climate change negotiations are beginning to produce insurance measures. Next, the author will discuss some of the key issues to watch in those negotiations that relate to longer-term insurance. And finally, the author will report on progress in the United States on the climate insurance plan--The President`s Climate Action Plan.

  15. A new breast cancer risk analysis approach using features extracted from multiple sub-regions on bilateral mammograms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Wenqing; Tseng, Tzu-Liang B.; Zheng, Bin; Zhang, Jianying; Qian, Wei

    2015-03-01

    A novel breast cancer risk analysis approach is proposed for enhancing performance of computerized breast cancer risk analysis using bilateral mammograms. Based on the intensity of breast area, five different sub-regions were acquired from one mammogram, and bilateral features were extracted from every sub-region. Our dataset includes 180 bilateral mammograms from 180 women who underwent routine screening examinations, all interpreted as negative and not recalled by the radiologists during the original screening procedures. A computerized breast cancer risk analysis scheme using four image processing modules, including sub-region segmentation, bilateral feature extraction, feature selection, and classification was designed to detect and compute image feature asymmetry between the left and right breasts imaged on the mammograms. The highest computed area under the curve (AUC) is 0.763 ± 0.021 when applying the multiple sub-region features to our testing dataset. The positive predictive value and the negative predictive value were 0.60 and 0.73, respectively. The study demonstrates that (1) features extracted from multiple sub-regions can improve the performance of our scheme compared to using features from whole breast area only; (2) a classifier using asymmetry bilateral features can effectively predict breast cancer risk; (3) incorporating texture and morphological features with density features can boost the classification accuracy.

  16. A Randomized Comparative Effectiveness Study of Healthy Directions 2—A Multiple Risk Behavior Intervention for Primary Care

    PubMed Central

    Emmons, Karen M.; Puleo, Elaine; Greaney, Mary L.; Gillman, Matthew W.; Bennett, Gary G.; Haines, Jess; Sprunck-Harrild, Kim; Viswanath, Vish

    2014-01-01

    Objective To evaluate the effectiveness of the Healthy Directions 2 (HD2) intervention in the primary care setting. Methods HD2 was a cluster randomized trial (conducted 3/09 – 11/11). Primary sampling unit was provider (n=33), with secondary sampling of patients within provider (n=2,440). Study arms included: 1) usual care (UC); 2) HD2-- a patient self-guided intervention targeting 5 risk behaviors; or 3) HD2 plus 2 brief telephone coaching calls (HD2+CC). The outcome measure was proportion of participants with a lower multiple risk behavior score (MRB) by follow-up. Results At baseline, only 4% of participants met all behavioral recommendations. Both HD2 and HD2+CC led to improvements in MRB score, relative to UC, with no differences between the two HD2 conditions. Twenty-eight percent of UC participants had improved MRB scores at 6 mo., vs. 39% and 43% in HD2 and HD2+CC respectively (p’s≤.001); results were similar at 18 mo. (p≤.05). The incremental cost of one risk factor reduction in MRB score was $319 in HD2 and $440 for HD2+CC. Conclusions Self-guided and coached intervention conditions had equivalent levels of effect in reducing multiple chronic disease risk factors, were relatively low cost, and thus are potentially useful for routine implementation in similar health settings. PMID:24642140

  17. Regulatory mechanisms of cAMP levels as a multiple target for antiplatelet activity and less bleeding risk.

    PubMed

    Fuentes, Eduardo; Palomo, Iván

    2014-08-01

    Platelet activation is a critical component of atherothrombosis. The multiple pathways of platelet activation limit the effect of specific receptor/pathway inhibitors, resulting in limited clinical efficacy. Recent research has confirmed that combination therapy results in enhanced antithrombotic efficacy without increasing bleeding risk. In this way, the best-known inhibitor and turn off signaling in platelet activation is cAMP. In this article we discuss the mechanisms of regulation of intraplatelet cAMP levels, a) platelet-dependent pathway: Gi/Gs protein-coupled receptors, phosphodiesterase inhibition and activation of PPARs and b) platelet-independent pathway: inhibition of adenosine uptake by erythrocytes. With respect to the association between intraplatelet cAMP levels and bleeding risk it is possible to establish that compounds/drugs with pleitropic effect for increased intraplatelet cAMP level could have an antithrombotic activity with less risk of bleeding.

  18. Inverse correlation of genetic risk score with age at onset in bout-onset and progressive-onset multiple sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Sorosina, Melissa; Esposito, Federica; Guaschino, Clara; Clarelli, Ferdinando; Barizzone, Nadia; Osiceanu, Ana Maria; Brambilla, Paola; Mascia, Elisabetta; Cavalla, Paola; Gallo, Paolo; Martinelli, Vittorio; Leone, Maurizio; Comi, Giancarlo; D'Alfonso, Sandra; Martinelli Boneschi, Filippo

    2015-10-01

    We correlated the weighted genetic risk score measured using 107 established susceptibility variants for multiple sclerosis (MS) with the age at onset in bout-onset (BOMS, n=906) and progressive-onset MS Italian patients (PrMS) (n=544). We observed an opposite relationship in the two disease courses: a higher weighted genetic risk score was associated with an earlier age at onset in BOMS (rho= -0.1; p=5 × 10(-3)) and a later age at onset in PrMS cases (rho=0.07; p=0.15) (p of difference of regression=1.4 × 10(-2)). These findings suggest that established MS risk variants anticipate the onset of the inflammatory phase, while they have no impact on, or even delay, the onset of the progressive phase.

  19. Callous-unemotional traits and social information processing: multiple risk-factor models for understanding aggressive behavior in antisocial youth.

    PubMed

    Stickle, Timothy R; Kirkpatrick, Neil M; Brush, Lauren N

    2009-12-01

    This study examined multiple risk factor models of links among callous-unemotional traits, aggression beliefs, social information processing, impulsivity, and aggressive behavior in a sample of 150 antisocial adolescents. Consistent with past research, results indicated that beliefs legitimizing aggression predicted social information processing biases and that social information processing biases mediated the effect of beliefs on aggressive behavior. Callous-unemotional traits accounted for unique variance in aggression above and beyond effects of more established risk factors of early onset of antisocial behavior, social information processing, and impulsivity. These findings add to recent research showing that callous-unemotional traits are a unique risk factor associated with aggression and criminal offending and suggest that targeting both affective and cognitive vulnerabilities may enhance clinical intervention with antisocial youth.

  20. Genetic Risk by Experience Interaction for Childhood Internalizing Problems: Converging Evidence across Multiple Methods

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vendlinski, Matthew K.; Lemery-Chalfant, Kathryn; Essex, Marilyn J.; Goldsmith, H. Hill

    2011-01-01

    Background: Identifying how genetic risk interacts with experience to predict psychopathology is an important step toward understanding the etiology of mental health problems. Few studies have examined genetic risk by experience interaction (GxE) in the development of childhood psychopathology. Methods: We used both co-twin and parent mental…

  1. Is there something special with probabilities?--insight vs. computational ability in multiple risk combination.

    PubMed

    Juslin, Peter; Lindskog, Marcus; Mayerhofer, Bastian

    2015-03-01

    While a wealth of evidence suggests that humans tend to rely on additive cue combination to make controlled judgments, many of the normative rules for probability combination require multiplicative combination. In this article, the authors combine the experimental paradigms on probability reasoning and multiple-cue judgment to allow a comparison between formally identical tasks that involve probability vs. other task contents. The purpose was to investigate if people have cognitive algorithms for the combination, specifically, of probability, affording multiplicative combination in the context of probability. Three experiments suggest that, although people show some signs of a qualitative understanding of the combination rules that are specific to probability, in all but the simplest cases they lack the cognitive algorithms needed for multiplication, but instead use a variety of additive heuristics to approximate the normative combination. Although these heuristics are surprisingly accurate, normative combination is not consistently achieved until the problems are framed in an additive way.

  2. Final results of a multicenter trial addressing role of CSF flow cytometric analysis in NHL patients at high risk for CNS dissemination.

    PubMed

    Benevolo, Giulia; Stacchini, Alessandra; Spina, Michele; Ferreri, Andrés J M; Arras, Marcella; Bellio, Laura; Botto, Barbara; Bulian, Pietro; Cantonetti, Maria; Depaoli, Lorella; Di Renzo, Nicola; Di Rocco, Alice; Evangelista, Andrea; Franceschetti, Silvia; Godio, Laura; Mannelli, Francesco; Pavone, Vincenzo; Pioltelli, Pietro; Vitolo, Umberto; Pogliani, Enrico M

    2012-10-18

    This prospective study compared diagnostic and prognostic value of conventional cytologic (CC) examination and flow cytometry (FCM) of baseline samples of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) in 174 patients with newly diagnosed aggressive non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). FCM detected a neoplastic population in the CSF of 18 of 174 patients (10%), CC only in 7 (4%; P < .001); 11 patients (14%) were discordant (FCM(+)/CC(-)). At a median follow-up of 46 months, there were 64 systemic progressions and 10 CNS relapses, including 2 patients with both systemic and CNS relapses. Two-year progression-free and overall survival were significantly higher in patients with FCM(-) CSF (62% and 72%) compared with those FCM(+) CSF (39% and 50%, respectively), with a 2-year CNS relapse cumulative incidence of 3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0-7) versus 17% (95% CI, 0-34; P = .004), respectively. The risk of CNS progression was significantly higher in FMC(+)/CC(-) versus FCM(-)/CC(-) patients (hazard ratio = 8.16, 95% CI, 1.45-46). In conclusion, FCM positivity in the CSF of patients with high-risk NHL is associated with a significantly higher CNS relapse risk and poorer outcome. The combination of IV drugs with a higher CNS bioavailability and intrathecal chemotherapy is advisable to prevent CNS relapses in FCM(+) patients.

  3. The Role of Environment and Lifestyle in Determining the Risk of Multiple Sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Hedström, Anna Karin; Olsson, Tomas; Alfredsson, Lars

    2015-01-01

    MS is a complex disease where both genetic and environmental factors contribute to disease susceptibility. The substantially increased risk of developing MS in relatives of affected individuals gives solid evidence for a genetic base for susceptibility, whereas the modest familial risk, most strikingly demonstrated in the twin studies, is a very strong argument for an important role of lifestyle/environmental factors in determining the risk of MS, sometimes interacting with MS risk genes. Lifestyle factors and environmental exposures are harder to accurately study and quantify than genetic factors. However, it is important to identify these factors since they, as opposed to risk genes, are potentially preventable. We have reviewed the evidence for environmental factors that have been repeatedly shown to influence the risk of MS: Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection, ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure habits /vitamin D status, and smoking. We have also reviewed a number of additional environmental factors, published in the past 5 years, that have been described to influence MS risk. Independent replication, preferably by a variety of methods, may give still more firm evidence for their involvement.

  4. Sun Exposure, Vitamin D Receptor Polymorphisms FokI and BsmI and Risk of Multiple Primary Melanoma

    PubMed Central

    Mandelcorn-Monson, Rochelle; Marrett, Loraine; Kricker, Anne; Armstrong, Bruce K.; Orlow, Irene; Goumas, Chris; Paine, Susan; Rosso, Stefano; Thomas, Nancy; Millikan, Robert C.; Pole, Jason D.; Cotignola, Javier; Rosen, Cheryl; Kanetsky, Peter A.; Lee-Taylor, Julia; Begg, Colin B.; Berwick, Marianne

    2011-01-01

    Sunlight exposure increases risk of melanoma. Sunlight also potentiates cutaneous synthesis of vitamin D, which can inhibit melanoma cell growth and promote apoptosis. Vitamin D effects are mediated through the vitamin D receptor (VDR). We hypothesized that genetic variation in VDR affects the relationship of sun exposure to risk of a further melanoma in people who have already had one. We investigated the interaction between VDR polymorphisms and sun exposure in a population-based multinational study comparing 1138 patients with a multiple (second or subsequent) primary melanoma (cases) to 2151 patients with a first primary melanoma (controls); essentially a case-control study of melanoma in a population of melanoma survivors. Sun exposure was assessed using a questionnaire and interview, and was shown to be associated with multiple primary melanoma. VDR was genotyped at the FokI and BsmI loci and the main effects of variants at these loci and their interactions with sun exposure were analyzed. Only the BsmI variant was associated with multiple primary melanoma (OR = 1.27, 95% CI 0.99-1.62 for the homozygous variant genotype). Joint effects analyses showed highest ORs in the high exposure, homozygous variant BsmI genotype category for each sun exposure variable. Stratified analyses showed somewhat higher ORs for the homozygous BsmI variant genotype in people with high sun exposure than with low sun exposure. P values for interaction, however, were high. These results suggest that risk of multiple primary melanoma is increased in people who have the BsmI variant of VDR. PMID:21612999

  5. The renal protective effect of angiotensin receptor blockers depends on intra-individual response variation in multiple risk markers

    PubMed Central

    Schievink, Bauke; de Zeeuw, Dick; Parving, Hans-Henrik; Rossing, Peter; Lambers Heerspink, Hiddo Jan

    2015-01-01

    Aims Angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) are renoprotective and targeted to blood pressure. However, ARBs have multiple other (off-target) effects which may affect renal outcome. It is unknown whether on-target and off-target effects are congruent within individuals. If not, this variation in short term effects may have important implications for the prediction of individual long term renal outcomes. Our aim was to assess intra-individual variability in multiple parameters in response to ARBs in type 2 diabetes. Methods Changes in systolic blood pressure (SBP), albuminuria, potassium, haemoglobin, cholesterol and uric acid after 6 months of losartan treatment were assessed in the RENAAL database. Improvement in predictive performance of renal outcomes (ESRD or doubling serum creatinine) for each individual using ARB-induced changes in all risk markers was assessed by the relative integrative discrimination index (RIDI). Results SBP response showed high variability (mean –5.7 mmHg, 5th to 95th percentile –36.5 to +24.0 mmHg) between individuals. Changes in off-target parameters also showed high variability between individuals. No congruency was observed between responses to losartan in multiple parameters within individuals. Using individual responses in all risk markers significantly improved renal risk prediction (RIDI 30.4%, P < 0.01) compared with using only SBP changes. Results were successfully replicated in two independent trials with irbesartan, IDNT and IRMA-2. Conclusions In this post hoc analysis we showed that ARBs have multiple off-target effects which vary between and within individuals. Combining all ARB-induced responses beyond SBP provides a more accurate prediction of who will benefit from ARB therapy. Prospective trials are required to validate these findings. PMID:25872610

  6. Multiple primary tumours: incidence estimation in the presence of competing risks

    PubMed Central

    Rosso, Stefano; Terracini, Lea; Ricceri, Fulvio; Zanetti, Roberto

    2009-01-01

    Background Estimating the risk of developing subsequent primary tumours in a population is difficult since the occurrence probability is conditioned to the survival probability. Methods We proposed to apply Markov models studying the transition intensities from first to second tumour with the Aalen-Johansen (AJ) estimators, as usually done in competing risk models. In a simulation study we applied the proposed method in different settings with constant or varying underlying intensities and applying age standardisation. In addition, we illustrated the method with data on breast cancer from the Piedmont Cancer Registry. Results The simulation study showed that the person-years approach led to a sensibly wider bias than the AJ estimators. The largest bias was observed assuming constantly increasing incidence rates. However, this situation is rather uncommon dealing with subsequent tumours incidence. In 9233 cases with breast cancer occurred in women resident in Turin, Italy, between 1985 and 1998 we observed a significant increased risk of 1.91 for subsequent cancer of corpus uteri, estimated with the age-standardised Aalen-Johansen incidence ratio (AJ-IRstand), and a significant increased risk of 1.29 for cancer possibly related to the radiotherapy of breast cancer. The peak of occurrence of those cancers was observed after 8 years of follow-up. Conclusion The increased risk of a cancer of the corpus uteri, also observed in other studies, is usually interpreted as the common shared risk factors such as low parity, early menarche and late onset of menopause. We also grouped together those cancers possibly associated to a previous local radiotherapy: the cumulative risk at 14 years is still not significant, however the AJ estimators showed a significant risk peak between the eighth and the ninth year. Finally, the proposed approach has been shown to be reliable and informative under several aspects. It allowed for a correct estimation of the risk, and for investigating

  7. Home and Away: Risk, Familiarity and the Multiple Geographies of the Higher Education Experience

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clayton, John; Crozier, Gill; Reay, Diane

    2009-01-01

    With reference to an ESRC/TLRP project conducted across two academic years with working-class students in higher education (HE), this paper explores the relationship between geographies of home and those of university at two UK HE institutions. It addresses how social relations inflected by class influence the experience of students as they adapt…

  8. Molecular Markers for Prostate Cancer Risk Stratification from Multiple Ultrasound-Guided Biopsies

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-10-01

    Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory... Cold Springs Harbor , NY 11724 REPORT DATE: October 2013 TYPE OF REPORT: Annual PREPARED FOR: U.S. Army Medical Research and...ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory 1 Bungtown Road Cold Spring Harbor , NY

  9. Structured Coupling of Probability Loss Distributions: Assessing Joint Flood Risk in Multiple River Basins.

    PubMed

    Timonina, Anna; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Pflug, Georg; Jongman, Brenden; Rojas, Rodrigo

    2015-11-01

    Losses due to natural hazard events can be extraordinarily high and difficult to cope with. Therefore, there is considerable interest to estimate the potential impact of current and future extreme events at all scales in as much detail as possible. As hazards typically spread over wider areas, risk assessment must take into account interrelations between regions. Neglecting such interdependencies can lead to a severe underestimation of potential losses, especially for extreme events. This underestimation of extreme risk can lead to the failure of riskmanagement strategies when they are most needed, namely, in times of unprecedented events. In this article, we suggest a methodology to incorporate such interdependencies in risk via the use of copulas. We demonstrate that by coupling losses, dependencies can be incorporated in risk analysis, avoiding the underestimation of risk. Based on maximum discharge data of river basins and stream networks, we present and discuss different ways to couple loss distributions of basins while explicitly incorporating tail dependencies. We distinguish between coupling methods that require river structure data for the analysis and those that do not. For the later approach we propose a minimax algorithm to choose coupled basin pairs so that the underestimation of risk is avoided and the use of river structure data is not needed. The proposed methodology is especially useful for large-scale analysis and we motivate and apply our method using the case of Romania. The approach can be easily extended to other countries and natural hazards.

  10. Multiple independent variants at the TERT locus are associated with telomere length and risks of breast and ovarian cancer

    PubMed Central

    Bojesen, Stig E; Pooley, Karen A; Johnatty, Sharon E; Beesley, Jonathan; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Tyrer, Jonathan P; Edwards, Stacey L; Pickett, Hilda A; Shen, Howard C; Smart, Chanel E; Hillman, Kristine M; Mai, Phuong L; Lawrenson, Kate; Stutz, Michael D; Lu, Yi; Karevan, Rod; Woods, Nicholas; Johnston, Rebecca L; French, Juliet D; Chen, Xiaoqing; Weischer, Maren; Nielsen, Sune F; Maranian, Melanie J; Ghoussaini, Maya; Ahmed, Shahana; Baynes, Caroline; Bolla, Manjeet K; Wang, Qin; Dennis, Joe; McGuffog, Lesley; Barrowdale, Daniel; Lee, Andrew; Healey, Sue; Lush, Michael; Tessier, Daniel C; Vincent, Daniel; Bacot, Françis; Vergote, Ignace; Lambrechts, Sandrina; Despierre, Evelyn; Risch, Harvey A; González-Neira, Anna; Rossing, Mary Anne; Pita, Guillermo; Doherty, Jennifer A; Álvarez, Nuria; Larson, Melissa C; Fridley, Brooke L; Schoof, Nils; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Cicek, Mine S; Peto, Julian; Kalli, Kimberly R; Broeks, Annegien; Armasu, Sebastian M; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Braaf, Linde M; Winterhoff, Boris; Nevanlinna, Heli; Konecny, Gottfried E; Lambrechts, Diether; Rogmann, Lisa; Guénel, Pascal; Teoman, Attila; Milne, Roger L; Garcia, Joaquin J; Cox, Angela; Shridhar, Vijayalakshmi; Burwinkel, Barbara; Marme, Frederik; Hein, Rebecca; Sawyer, Elinor J; Haiman, Christopher A; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Andrulis, Irene L; Moysich, Kirsten B; Hopper, John L; Odunsi, Kunle; Lindblom, Annika; Giles, Graham G; Brenner, Hermann; Simard, Jacques; Lurie, Galina; Fasching, Peter A; Carney, Michael E; Radice, Paolo; Wilkens, Lynne R; Swerdlow, Anthony; Goodman, Marc T; Brauch, Hiltrud; García-Closas, Montserrat; Hillemanns, Peter; Winqvist, Robert; Dürst, Matthias; Devilee, Peter; Runnebaum, Ingo; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Mannermaa, Arto; Butzow, Ralf; Bogdanova, Natalia V; Dörk, Thilo; Pelttari, Liisa M; Zheng, Wei; Leminen, Arto; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Bunker, Clareann H; Kristensen, Vessela; Ness, Roberta B; Muir, Kenneth; Edwards, Robert; Meindl, Alfons; Heitz, Florian; Matsuo, Keitaro; du Bois, Andreas; Wu, Anna H; Harter, Philipp; Teo, Soo-Hwang; Schwaab, Ira; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Blot, William; Hosono, Satoyo; Kang, Daehee; Nakanishi, Toru; Hartman, Mikael; Yatabe, Yasushi; Hamann, Ute; Karlan, Beth Y; Sangrajrang, Suleeporn; Kjaer, Susanne Krüger; Gaborieau, Valerie; Jensen, Allan; Eccles, Diana; Høgdall, Estrid; Shen, Chen-Yang; Brown, Judith; Woo, Yin Ling; Shah, Mitul; Azmi, Mat Adenan Noor; Luben, Robert; Omar, Siti Zawiah; Czene, Kamila; Vierkant, Robert A; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Flyger, Henrik; Vachon, Celine; Olson, Janet E; Wang, Xianshu; Levine, Douglas A; Rudolph, Anja; Weber, Rachel Palmieri; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Iversen, Edwin; Nickels, Stefan; Schildkraut, Joellen M; Silva, Isabel Dos Santos; Cramer, Daniel W; Gibson, Lorna; Terry, Kathryn L; Fletcher, Olivia; Vitonis, Allison F; van der Schoot, C Ellen; Poole, Elizabeth M; Hogervorst, Frans B L; Tworoger, Shelley S; Liu, Jianjun; Bandera, Elisa V; Li, Jingmei; Olson, Sara H; Humphreys, Keith; Orlow, Irene; Blomqvist, Carl; Rodriguez-Rodriguez, Lorna; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Salvesen, Helga B; Muranen, Taru A; Wik, Elisabeth; Brouwers, Barbara; Krakstad, Camilla; Wauters, Els; Halle, Mari K; Wildiers, Hans; Kiemeney, Lambertus A; Mulot, Claire; Aben, Katja K; Laurent-Puig, Pierre; van Altena, Anne M; Truong, Thérèse; Massuger, Leon F A G; Benitez, Javier; Pejovic, Tanja; Perez, Jose Ignacio Arias; Hoatlin, Maureen; Zamora, M Pilar; Cook, Linda S; Balasubramanian, Sabapathy P; Kelemen, Linda E; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Le, Nhu D; Sohn, Christof; Brooks-Wilson, Angela; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael J; Miller, Nicola; Cybulski, Cezary; Henderson, Brian E; Menkiszak, Janusz; Schumacher, Fredrick; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Marchand, Loic Le; Yang, Hannah P; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Glendon, Gord; Engelholm, Svend Aage; Knight, Julia A; Høgdall, Claus K; Apicella, Carmel; Gore, Martin; Tsimiklis, Helen; Song, Honglin; Southey, Melissa C; Jager, Agnes; van den Ouweland, Ans M W; Brown, Robert; Martens, John W M; Flanagan, James M; Kriege, Mieke; Paul, James; Margolin, Sara; Siddiqui, Nadeem; Severi, Gianluca; Whittemore, Alice S; Baglietto, Laura; McGuire, Valerie; Stegmaier, Christa; Sieh, Weiva; Müller, Heiko; Arndt, Volker; Labrèche, France; Gao, Yu-Tang; Goldberg, Mark S; Yang, Gong; Dumont, Martine; McLaughlin, John R; Hartmann, Arndt; Ekici, Arif B; Beckmann, Matthias W; Phelan, Catherine M; Lux, Michael P; Permuth-Wey, Jenny; Peissel, Bernard; Sellers, Thomas A; Ficarazzi, Filomena; Barile, Monica; Ziogas, Argyrios; Ashworth, Alan; Gentry-Maharaj, Aleksandra; Jones, Michael; Ramus, Susan J; Orr, Nick; Menon, Usha; Pearce, Celeste L; Brüning, Thomas; Pike, Malcolm C; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Lissowska, Jolanta; Figueroa, Jonine; Kupryjanczyk, Jolanta; Chanock, Stephen J; Dansonka-Mieszkowska, Agnieszka; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Rzepecka, Iwona K; Pylkäs, Katri; Bidzinski, Mariusz; Kauppila, Saila; Hollestelle, Antoinette; Seynaeve, Caroline; Tollenaar, Rob A E M; Durda, Katarzyna; Jaworska, Katarzyna; Hartikainen, Jaana M; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Kataja, Vesa; Antonenkova, Natalia N; Long, Jirong; Shrubsole, Martha; Deming-Halverson, Sandra; Lophatananon, Artitaya; Siriwanarangsan, Pornthep; Stewart-Brown, Sarah; Ditsch, Nina; Lichtner, Peter; Schmutzler, Rita K; Ito, Hidemi; Iwata, Hiroji; Tajima, Kazuo; Tseng, Chiu-Chen; Stram, Daniel O; van den Berg, David; Yip, Cheng Har; Ikram, M Kamran; Teh, Yew-Ching; Cai, Hui; Lu, Wei; Signorello, Lisa B; Cai, Qiuyin; Noh, Dong-Young; Yoo, Keun-Young; Miao, Hui; Iau, Philip Tsau-Choong; Teo, Yik Ying; McKay, James; Shapiro, Charles; Ademuyiwa, Foluso; Fountzilas, George; Hsiung, Chia-Ni; Yu, Jyh-Cherng; Hou, Ming-Feng; Healey, Catherine S; Luccarini, Craig; Peock, Susan; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Peterlongo, Paolo; Rebbeck, Timothy R; Piedmonte, Marion; Singer, Christian F; Friedman, Eitan; Thomassen, Mads; Offit, Kenneth; Hansen, Thomas V O; Neuhausen, Susan L; Szabo, Csilla I; Blanco, Ignacio; Garber, Judy; Narod, Steven A; Weitzel, Jeffrey N; Montagna, Marco; Olah, Edith; Godwin, Andrew K; Yannoukakos, Drakoulis; Goldgar, David E; Caldes, Trinidad; Imyanitov, Evgeny N; Tihomirova, Laima; Arun, Banu K; Campbell, Ian; Mensenkamp, Arjen R; van Asperen, Christi J; van Roozendaal, Kees E P; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Collée, J Margriet; Oosterwijk, Jan C; Hooning, Maartje J; Rookus, Matti A; van der Luijt, Rob B; van Os, Theo A M; Evans, D Gareth; Frost, Debra; Fineberg, Elena; Barwell, Julian; Walker, Lisa; Kennedy, M John; Platte, Radka; Davidson, Rosemarie; Ellis, Steve D; Cole, Trevor; Paillerets, Brigitte Bressac-de; Buecher, Bruno; Damiola, Francesca; Faivre, Laurence; Frenay, Marc; Sinilnikova, Olga M; Caron, Olivier; Giraud, Sophie; Mazoyer, Sylvie; Bonadona, Valérie; Caux-Moncoutier, Virginie; Toloczko-Grabarek, Aleksandra; Gronwald, Jacek; Byrski, Tomasz; Spurdle, Amanda B; Bonanni, Bernardo; Zaffaroni, Daniela; Giannini, Giuseppe; Bernard, Loris; Dolcetti, Riccardo; Manoukian, Siranoush; Arnold, Norbert; Engel, Christoph; Deissler, Helmut; Rhiem, Kerstin; Niederacher, Dieter; Plendl, Hansjoerg; Sutter, Christian; Wappenschmidt, Barbara; Borg, Åke; Melin, Beatrice; Rantala, Johanna; Soller, Maria; Nathanson, Katherine L; Domchek, Susan M; Rodriguez, Gustavo C; Salani, Ritu; Kaulich, Daphne Gschwantler; Tea, Muy-Kheng; Paluch, Shani Shimon; Laitman, Yael; Skytte, Anne-Bine; Kruse, Torben A; Jensen, Uffe Birk; Robson, Mark; Gerdes, Anne-Marie; Ejlertsen, Bent; Foretova, Lenka; Savage, Sharon A; Lester, Jenny; Soucy, Penny; Kuchenbaecker, Karoline B; Olswold, Curtis; Cunningham, Julie M; Slager, Susan; Pankratz, Vernon S; Dicks, Ed; Lakhani, Sunil R; Couch, Fergus J; Hall, Per; Monteiro, Alvaro N A; Gayther, Simon A; Pharoah, Paul D P; Reddel, Roger R; Goode, Ellen L; Greene, Mark H; Easton, Douglas F; Berchuck, Andrew; Antoniou, Antonis C; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Dunning, Alison M

    2013-01-01

    TERT-locus single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and leucocyte telomere measures are reportedly associated with risks of multiple cancers. Using the iCOGs chip, we analysed ~480 TERT-locus SNPs in breast (n=103,991), ovarian (n=39,774) and BRCA1 mutation carrier (11,705) cancer cases and controls. 53,724 participants have leucocyte telomere measures. Most associations cluster into three independent peaks. Peak 1 SNP rs2736108 minor allele associates with longer telomeres (P=5.8×10−7), reduced estrogen receptor negative (ER-negative) (P=1.0×10−8) and BRCA1 mutation carrier (P=1.1×10−5) breast cancer risks, and altered promoter-assay signal. Peak 2 SNP rs7705526 minor allele associates with longer telomeres (P=2.3×10−14), increased low malignant potential ovarian cancer risk (P=1.3×10−15) and increased promoter activity. Peak 3 SNPs rs10069690 and rs2242652 minor alleles increase ER-negative (P=1.2×10−12) and BRCA1 mutation carrier (P=1.6×10−14) breast and invasive ovarian (P=1.3×10−11) cancer risks, but not via altered telomere length. The cancer-risk alleles of rs2242652 and rs10069690 respectively increase silencing and generate a truncated TERT splice-variant. PMID:23535731

  11. Tobacco use, body mass index, and the risk of leukemia and multiple myeloma: a nationwide cohort study in Sweden.

    PubMed

    Fernberg, Pia; Odenbro, Asa; Bellocco, Rino; Boffetta, Paolo; Pawitan, Yudi; Zendehdel, Kazem; Adami, Johanna

    2007-06-15

    In a prospective cohort study of more than 330,000 Swedish construction workers, we explored the effect of tobacco smoking, oral moist snuff use, and body mass index (BMI) on the risk of developing leukemia (excluding chronic lymphocytic leukemia) and multiple myeloma (MM). Study subjects were participants of a health surveillance system within the building industry. Record linkage to the nationwide Swedish cancer registry, migration registry, and cause of death registry made a comprehensive follow-up available. A total of 372 incident cases of leukemia and 520 subjects with MM was ascertained. An increase in risk of acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) was observed in current smokers (incidence rate ratio, 1.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-2.11). Furthermore, there was an indication of a possible association between smoking intensity and risk of acute lymphocytic leukemia. Results on snuff use as well as BMI showed no association. This study confirms the role of smoking as a risk factor for AML and gives no support to the hypothesis of a role of snuff use or BMI level on the risk of leukemia or MM.

  12. Addressing the question of disorder-specific risk factors of internet addiction: a comparison of personality traits in patients with addictive behaviors and comorbid internet addiction.

    PubMed

    Müller, K W; Koch, A; Dickenhorst, U; Beutel, M E; Duven, E; Wölfling, K

    2013-01-01

    Uncontrolled use of the internet has been reported to affect the lives of some users in a negative way. According to epidemiological studies, about 1% of the general population is showing signs of internet addiction. Since internet addiction is becoming a growing health concern, research on potential risk factors is becoming more important in order to develop strategies for prevention and to adopt therapeutic treatment. Although there are some studies investigating personality traits in internet addiction, most of these studies are based on samples of healthy subjects. In this research project, we compared personality profiles of a sample of patients in different rehabilitation centers. 70 patients with an addiction disorder that additionally met the criteria for internet addiction were compared to 48 patients suffering from alcohol dependence. Besides Big Five personality traits, we also assessed depressive symptoms. It was shown that patients with comorbid internet addiction can be discriminated from other patients by higher neuroticism and lower extraversion as well as lower conscientiousness. After controlling for depressive symptoms, lower conscientiousness especially turned out to be a disorder-specific risk factor. As internet addiction is related to unique patterns of personality traits and can be discriminated from alcohol dependence, treatment approaches are needed that meet the specific requirements of patients with internet addiction.

  13. Integration of satellite-derived precipitation estimates and GeoNode capabilities for addressing the risk of flooding to local communities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isotta Cristofori, Elena; Camilo Camaro, Walther; Balbo, Simone; Pasquali, Paolo

    2015-04-01

    Natural hazards such as flood and drought are one of the main cause of economic losses and casualties over Africa. A number of initiatives are being implemented at a global and a local scale to reduce the risk of natural disasters. These initiatives often relies on the use and the efficient sharing of open source EO datasets in order to enable policy-makers and the public to have access to the right information in an easy and timely manner. While the commonly used datasets often include Geographic Information System (GIS) based information for the disaster monitoring and damage impact assessment, the integration with EO data of impending hazards is still at an early stage. The aim of this paper is to illustrate a methodology for combining satellite-derived precipitation estimates and spatial analysis capabilities for the production of extreme rainfall warning maps, through the use of GeoNode, a Web platform for the management and publication of geospatial data. In particular the methodology is presented for a case study over Malawi, in the framework of the Malawi Spatial Data Platform (MASDAP), a GeoNode-based platform promoted by the Government of Malawi in order to support development of the country and build resilience against natural hazards. This approach is considered to be particularly valuable in order to enable communities to better understand the risk of extreme precipitation and to have a tool for effectively evaluate main areas where flooding may develop rapidly causing significant damages, such as seasonal rivers.

  14. Biochemical changes in the serum of patients with chronic toxigenic mold exposures: a risk factor for multiple renal dysfunctions.

    PubMed

    Anyanwu, Ebere; Campbell, Andrew W; Vojdani, Aristo; Ehiri, John E; Akpan, Akpan I

    2003-11-03

    This paper analyzes and presents the biochemical abnormalities in the sera of patients presenting with chronic mycosis in order to investigate the relationship with the risks of multiple renal disorders. The study population (n = 10) consisted of six females and four males (mean age 36.3 years) exposed by toxic molds in their homes and offices for an average of 2.8 years. The control group comprised ten people, five males and five females (mean age 35.9 years) without any known exposures to toxic molds. Blood samples were obtained from both the patients and the controls and were processed using specific biochemical methods that included enzyme-linked immunoabsorbent assay (ELISA). There were biochemical abnormal concentrations in creatinine, uric acid, phosphorus, alkaline phosphotase, cholesterol, HDH, SGOT/AST, segmented neutrophils, lymphocytes, total T3, IgG and IgA immunoglobulins with significant differences between patients and controls. These abnormalities were consistent with multiple renal disorders. The major complaints of the mycosis patients were headaches, pulmonary symptoms, allergic reactions, memory loss, skin rashes, blurred vision symptoms, fatigue, and runny nose. These findings were depictive of a strong association of chronic mycosis with abnormal renal indicators. It was concluded that, although this research was a pilot investigation, based on the overall results, people exposed to chronic indoor environmental toxic molds were at risk of multiple renal complications.

  15. Adolescent sexual risk and multiple contexts: interpersonal violence, parenting, and poverty.

    PubMed

    Rodgers, Kathleen Boyce; McGuire, Jenifer K

    2012-07-01

    In this study we estimated the combined effects of violence experiences, parenting processes, and community poverty on sexual onset, alcohol or other drug (AOD) use at last sex, multiple sex partners, and prior pregnancy in a sample of 7th-, 9th-, and 11th-grade adolescents (n = 7,891), and the subsample of sexually experienced adolescents (n = 2,108). Multilevel multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that having experienced any interpersonal violence, and low levels of perceived parental warmth and parental knowledge predicted sexual onset. Adult sexual abuse or peer sexual coercion increased the odds for AOD use at last sex and having multiple sexual partners. When demographic, violence experiences and parenting behaviors were accounted for, poverty was not associated with sexual onset, AOD use at last sex, or multiple sex partners. Results suggest prevention efforts to reduce teen dating violence may be especially important to diminish sexually risky behaviors among adolescents.

  16. A Spatial Framework to Map Heat Health Risks at Multiple Scales

    PubMed Central

    Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Huang, Wei

    2015-01-01

    In the last few decades extreme heat events have led to substantial excess mortality, most dramatically in Central Europe in 2003, in Russia in 2010, and even in typically cool locations such as Vancouver, Canada, in 2009. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is expected to increase over the coming centuries as the result of climate-driven global increases in the severity and frequency of extreme heat events. Spatial information on heat exposure and population vulnerability may be combined to map the areas of highest risk and focus mitigation efforts there. However, a mismatch in spatial resolution between heat exposure and vulnerability data can cause spatial scale issues such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). We used a raster-based model to integrate heat exposure and vulnerability data in a multi-criteria decision analysis, and compared it to the traditional vector-based model. We then used the Getis-Ord Gi index to generate spatially smoothed heat risk hotspot maps from fine to coarse spatial scales. The raster-based model allowed production of maps at spatial resolution, more description of local-scale heat risk variability, and identification of heat-risk areas not identified with the vector-based approach. Spatial smoothing with the Getis-Ord Gi index produced heat risk hotspots from local to regional spatial scale. The approach is a framework for reducing spatial scale issues in future heat risk mapping, and for identifying heat risk hotspots at spatial scales ranging from the block-level to the municipality level. PMID:26694445

  17. A Spatial Framework to Map Heat Health Risks at Multiple Scales.

    PubMed

    Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Huang, Wei

    2015-12-18

    In the last few decades extreme heat events have led to substantial excess mortality, most dramatically in Central Europe in 2003, in Russia in 2010, and even in typically cool locations such as Vancouver, Canada, in 2009. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is expected to increase over the coming centuries as the result of climate-driven global increases in the severity and frequency of extreme heat events. Spatial information on heat exposure and population vulnerability may be combined to map the areas of highest risk and focus mitigation efforts there. However, a mismatch in spatial resolution between heat exposure and vulnerability data can cause spatial scale issues such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). We used a raster-based model to integrate heat exposure and vulnerability data in a multi-criteria decision analysis, and compared it to the traditional vector-based model. We then used the Getis-Ord G(i) index to generate spatially smoothed heat risk hotspot maps from fine to coarse spatial scales. The raster-based model allowed production of maps at spatial resolution, more description of local-scale heat risk variability, and identification of heat-risk areas not identified with the vector-based approach. Spatial smoothing with the Getis-Ord G(i) index produced heat risk hotspots from local to regional spatial scale. The approach is a framework for reducing spatial scale issues in future heat risk mapping, and for identifying heat risk hotspots at spatial scales ranging from the block-level to the municipality level.

  18. Methods for Addressing Uncertainty and Variability to Characterize Potential Health Risk from Trichloroethylene-Contaminated Ground Water at Beale Air Force Base in California:Integration of Uncertainty and Variability in Pharmacokinetics and Dose-Response

    SciTech Connect

    Bogen, K T

    2001-05-24

    Traditional estimates of health risk are typically inflated, particularly if cancer is the dominant endpoint and there is fundamental uncertainty as to mechanism(s) of action. Risk is more realistically characterized if it accounts for joint uncertainty and interindividual variability within a systematic probabilistic framework to integrate the joint effects on risk of distributed parameters of all (linear as well as nonlinear) risk-extrapolation models involved. Such a framework was used to characterize risks to potential future residents posed by trichloroethylene (TCE) in ground water at an inactive landfill site on Beale Air Force Base in California. Variability and uncertainty were addressed in exposure-route-specific estimates of applied dose, in pharmacokinetically based estimates of route-specific metabolized fractions of absorbed TCE, and in corresponding biologically effective doses estimated under a genotoxic/linear (MA{sub G}) vs. a cytotoxic/nonlinear (MA{sub c}) mechanistic assumption for TCE-induced cancer. Increased risk conditional on effective dose was estimated under MA{sub G} based on seven rodent-bioassay data sets, and under MA{sub c} based on mouse hepatotoxicity data. Mean and upper-bound estimates of combined risk calculated by the unified approach were <10{sup -6} and 10{sup -4}, respectively, while corresponding estimates based on traditional deterministic methods were >10{sup -5} and 10{sup -4}, respectively. It was estimated that no TCE-related harm is likely to occur due to any plausible residential exposure scenario involving the site. The systematic probabilistic framework illustrated is particularly suited to characterizing risks that involve uncertain and/or diverse mechanisms of action.

  19. Social Network Strategies to Address HIV Prevention and Treatment Continuum of Care Among At-risk and HIV-infected Substance Users: A Systematic Scoping Review.

    PubMed

    Ghosh, Debarchana; Krishnan, Archana; Gibson, Britton; Brown, Shan-Estelle; Latkin, Carl A; Altice, Frederick L

    2017-04-01

    Social network analysis (SNA) and social network-based interventions (SNI) are important analytical tools harnessing peer and family influences critical for HIV prevention and treatment among substance users. While SNA is an effective way to measure social network influences, SNI directly or indirectly involves network members in interventions. Even though these methods have been applied in heterogeneous ways, leading to extensive evidence-based practices, systematic reviews are however, lacking. We searched five bibliographic databases and identified 58 studies involving HIV in substance users that had utilized SNA or SNI as part of their methodology. SNA was used to measure network variables as inputs in statistical/mathematical models in 64 % of studies and only 22 % of studies used SNI. Most studies focused on HIV prevention and few addressed diagnosis (k = 4), care linkage and retention (k = 5), ART adherence (k = 2), and viral suppression (k = 1). This systematic review highlights both the advantages and disadvantages of social network approaches for HIV prevention and treatment and gaps in its use for HIV care continuum.

  20. Adolescents demonstrate improvement in obesity risk behaviors following completion of Choice, Control, and Change, a curriculum addressing personal agency and autonomous motivation

    PubMed Central

    Koch, Pamela A.; Lee, Heewon; Calabrese-Barton, A

    2010-01-01

    Background The rapid increase of obesity and diabetes risk beginning in youth, particularly those from disadvantaged communities, calls for prevention efforts. Objective To examine the impact of a curriculum intervention, Choice, Control, and Change (C3), on the adoption of the energy balance related behaviors of decreasing sweetened drinks, packaged snacks, fast food, and leisure screen time, and increasing water, fruits and vegetables, and physical activity, and on potential psychosocial mediators of the behaviors. Design Ten middle schools in low-income New York City neighborhoods were randomly assigned within matched pairs to either intervention or comparison/ delayed control conditions during the 2007–2008 school year. Participants 562 inner city seventh grade students in the intervention condition, and 574 in the comparison condition. Intervention Students received the 24 C3 lessons that used science inquiry-based investigations to enhance motivation for action, and social cognitive and self-determination theories to increase personal agency and autonomous motivation to take action. Main outcome measures Self-report instruments to measure energy balance related behaviors targeted by the curriculum, and potential psychosocial mediators of the behaviors. Analyses ANCOVA with group (intervention/control) as a fixed factor and pre-test as covariate. Results Students in intervention schools compared to the delayed intervention controls reported consumption of significantly fewer sweetened drinks and packaged snacks, smaller sizes of fast food, increased intentional walking for exercise, and decreased leisure screen-time, but showed no increases in their intakes of water, fruits, and vegetables. They showed significant increases in positive outcome expectations about the behaviors, self-efficacy, goal intentions, competence, and autonomy. Conclusions The C3 curriculum was effective in improving many of the specifically targeted behaviors related to reducing

  1. Coronary Heart Disease Risk between Active and Inactive Women with Multiple Sclerosis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Slawta, Jennifer N.; McCubbin, Jeffrey A.; Wilcox, Anthony R.; Fox, Susan D.; Nalle, Darek J.; Anderson, Gail

    2002-01-01

    Investigated whether abdominal fat accumulation and levels of triglyceride, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and glucose differed between 123 active and inactive women with multiple sclerosis (MS). Results indicated that low-to-moderate leisure time physical activity significantly related to less abdominal fat accumulation, lower triglyceride…

  2. Adolescent Sexual Risk and Multiple Contexts: Interpersonal Violence, Parenting, and Poverty

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rodgers, Kathleen Boyce; McGuire, Jenifer K.

    2012-01-01

    In this study we estimated the combined effects of violence experiences, parenting processes, and community poverty on sexual onset, alcohol or other drug (AOD) use at last sex, multiple sex partners, and prior pregnancy in a sample of 7th-, 9th-, and 11th-grade adolescents (n = 7,891), and the subsample of sexually experienced adolescents (n =…

  3. "It takes a village" to support the vocabulary development of children with multiple risk factors.

    PubMed

    Baydar, Nazli; Küntay, Aylin C; Yagmurlu, Bilge; Aydemir, Nuran; Cankaya, Dilek; Göksen, Fatos; Cemalcilar, Zeynep

    2014-04-01

    Data from a nationally representative sample from Turkey (N = 1,017) were used to investigate the environmental factors that support the receptive vocabulary of 3-year-old children who differ in their developmental risk due to family low economic status and elevated maternal depressive symptoms. Children's vocabulary knowledge was strongly associated with language stimulation and learning materials in all families regardless of risk status. Maternal warmth and responsiveness supported vocabulary competence in families of low economic status only when maternal depressive symptoms were low. In families with the highest levels of risk, that is, with depression and economic distress jointly present, support by the extended family and neighbors for caring for the child protected children's vocabulary development against these adverse conditions. The empirical evidence on the positive contribution of extrafamilial support to young children's receptive vocabulary under adverse conditions allows an expansion of our current theorizing about influences on language development.

  4. Multiple, but not traditional risk factors predict mortality in older people: the Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project.

    PubMed

    Hirani, Vasant; Naganathan, Vasi; Blyth, Fiona; Le Couteur, David G; Gnjidic, Danijela; Stanaway, Fiona F; Seibel, Markus J; Waite, Louise M; Handelsman, David J; Cumming, Robert G

    2014-01-01

    This study aims to identify the common risk factors for mortality in community-dwelling older men. A prospective population-based study was conducted with a median of 6.7 years of follow-up. Participants included 1705 men aged ≥70 years at baseline (2005-2007) living in the community in Sydney, Australia. Demographic information, lifestyle factors, health status, self-reported history of diseases, physical performance measures, blood pressure, height and weight, disability (activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental ADLs, instrumental ADLs (IADLs)), cognitive status, depressive symptoms and blood analyte measures were considered. Cox regression analyses were conducted to model predictors delete time until of mortality. During follow-up, 461 men (27 %) died. Using Cox proportional hazards model, significant predictors of delete time to time to mortality included in the final model (p < 0.05) were older age, body mass index < 20 kg m(2), high white cell count, anaemia, low albumin, current smoking, history of cancer, history of myocardial infarction, history of congestive heart failure, depressive symptoms and ADL and IADL disability and impaired chair stands. We found that overweight and obesity and/or being a lifelong non-drinker of alcohol were protective against mortality. Compared to men with less than or equal to one risk factor, the hazard ratio in men with three risk factors was 2.5; with four risk factors, it was 4.0; with five risk factors, it was 4.9; and for six or more risk factors, it was 11.4, respectively. We have identified common risk factors that predict mortality that may be useful in making clinical decisions among older people living in the community. Our findings suggest that, in primary care, screening and management of multiple risk factors are important to consider for extending survival, rather than simply considering individual risk factors in isolation. Some of the "traditional" risk factors for mortality in a

  5. Prospective risk of morbidity in relation to multiplicity of infection with Plasmodium falciparum in São Tomé.

    PubMed

    Müller, D A; Charlwood, J D; Felger, I; Ferreira, C; do Rosario, V; Smith, T

    2001-02-23

    The prospective risk of acute morbidity was analysed in relation to multiplicity of Plasmodium falciparum infection in 491 individuals in a peri-urban community in São Tomé. In an initial cross-sectional survey, 40.5% of individuals were recorded by microscopy as infected with P. falciparum, and by PCR 60.5%, with the maximum prevalence in children aged 5-10 years. PCR-RFLP typing of the msp-2 gene of P. falciparum found a mean of 2.4 parasite genotypes per infected person, with little age dependence in this multiplicity and a total of 43 different msp-2 alleles identified. None of these were unique for São Tomé. Study participants were encouraged to report to a project worker whenever they suffered a febrile illness. During the 3 months following the parasitological survey the recorded incidence rates decreased with increasing baseline msp-2 multiplicity, both for P. falciparum-positive episodes and for fever without parasitaemia. While this is consistent with suggestions that multiple P. falciparum infections may protect against super-infecting parasites, confounding by patterns of health service usage is an alternative explanation. The incidence of clinical malaria episodes was only a little higher in children than in adults. This weak age-dependence in clinical immunity might be a consequence of a cohort effect resulting from resurgence of the disease after the breakdown of malaria control programs in the 1980s.

  6. Multiple rare alleles at LDLR and APOA5 confer risk for early-onset myocardial infarction

    PubMed Central

    Do, Ron; Stitziel, Nathan O.; Won, Hong-Hee; Jørgensen, Anders Berg; Duga, Stefano; Merlini, Pier Angelica; Kiezun, Adam; Farrall, Martin; Goel, Anuj; Zuk, Or; Guella, Illaria; Asselta, Rosanna; Lange, Leslie A.; Peloso, Gina M.; Auer, Paul L.; Girelli, Domenico; Martinelli, Nicola; Farlow, Deborah N.; DePristo, Mark A.; Roberts, Robert; Stewart, Alexander F.R.; Saleheen, Danish; Danesh, John; Epstein, Stephen E.; Sivapalaratnam, Suthesh; Hovingh, G. Kees; Kastelein, John J.; Samani, Nilesh J.; Schunkert, Heribert; Erdmann, Jeanette; Shah, Svati H.; Kraus, William E.; Davies, Robert; Nikpay, Majid; Johansen, Christopher T.; Wang, Jian; Hegele, Robert A.; Hechter, Eliana; Marz, Winfried; Kleber, Marcus E.; Huang, Jie; Johnson, Andrew D.; Li, Mingyao; Burke, Greg L.; Gross, Myron; Liu, Yongmei; Assimes, Themistocles L.; Heiss, Gerardo; Lange, Ethan M.; Folsom, Aaron R.; Taylor, Herman A.; Olivieri, Oliviero; Hamsten, Anders; Clarke, Robert; Reilly, Dermot F.; Yin, Wu; Rivas, Manuel A.; Donnelly, Peter; Rossouw, Jacques E.; Psaty, Bruce M.; Herrington, David M.; Wilson, James G.; Rich, Stephen S.; Bamshad, Michael J.; Tracy, Russell P.; Cupples, L. Adrienne; Rader, Daniel J.; Reilly, Muredach P.; Spertus, John A.; Cresci, Sharon; Hartiala, Jaana; Tang, W.H. Wilson; Hazen, Stanley L.; Allayee, Hooman; Reiner, Alex P.; Carlson, Christopher S.; Kooperberg, Charles; Jackson, Rebecca D.; Boerwinkle, Eric; Lander, Eric S.; Schwartz, Stephen M.; Siscovick, David S.; McPherson, Ruth; Tybjaerg-Hansen, Anne; Abecasis, Goncalo R.; Watkins, Hugh; Nickerson, Deborah A.; Ardissino, Diego; Sunyaev, Shamil R.; O’Donnell, Christopher J.; Altshuler, David; Gabriel, Stacey; Kathiresan, Sekar

    2014-01-01

    Summary Myocardial infarction (MI), a leading cause of death around the world, displays a complex pattern of inheritance1,2. When MI occurs early in life, the role of inheritance is substantially greater1. Previously, rare mutations in low-density lipoprotein (LDL) genes have been shown to contribute to MI risk in individual families3–8 whereas common variants at more than 45 loci have been associated with MI risk in the population9–15. Here, we evaluate the contribution of rare mutations to MI risk in the population. We sequenced the protein-coding regions of 9,793 genomes from patients with MI at an early age (≤50 years in males and ≤60 years in females) along with MI-free controls. We identified two genes where rare coding-sequence mutations were more frequent in cases versus controls at exome-wide significance. At low-density lipoprotein receptor (LDLR), carriers of rare, damaging mutations (3.1% of cases versus 1.3% of controls) were at 2.4-fold increased risk for MI; carriers of null alleles at LDLR were at even higher risk (13-fold difference). This sequence-based estimate of the proportion of early MI cases due to LDLR mutations is remarkably similar to an estimate made more than 40 years ago using total cholesterol16. At apolipoprotein A-V (APOA5), carriers of rare nonsynonymous mutations (1.4% of cases versus 0.6% of controls) were at 2.2-fold increased risk for MI. When compared with non-carriers, LDLR mutation carriers had higher plasma LDL cholesterol whereas APOA5 mutation carriers had higher plasma triglycerides. Recent evidence has connected MI risk with coding sequence mutations at two genes functionally related to APOA5, namely lipoprotein lipase15,17 and apolipoprotein C318,19. When combined, these observations suggest that, beyond LDL cholesterol, disordered metabolism of triglyceride-rich lipoproteins contributes to MI risk. PMID:25487149

  7. A history of the working group to address Los Alamos community health concerns - A case study of community involvement and risk communication

    SciTech Connect

    Harry Otway; Jon Johnson

    2000-01-01

    In May 1991, at a Department of Energy (DOE) public hearing at Los Alamos, New Mexico, a local artist claimed there had been a recent brain tumor cluster in a small Los Alamos neighborhood. He suggested the cause was radiation from past operations of Los Alamos National Laboratory. Data from the Laboratory's extensive environmental monitoring program gave no reason to believe this charge to be true but also could not prove it false. These allegations, reported in the local and regional media, alarmed the community and revealed an unsuspected lack of trust in the Laboratory. Having no immediate and definitive response, the Laboratory offered to collaborate with the community to address this concern. The Los Alamos community accepted this offer and a joint Community-Laboratory Working Group met for the first time 29 days later. The working group set as its primary goal the search for possible carcinogens in the local environment. Meanwhile, the DOE announced its intention to fund the New Mexico Department of Health to perform a separate and independent epidemiological study of all Los Alamos cancer rates. In early 1994, after commissioning 17 environmental studies and meeting 34 times, the working group decided that the public health concerns had been resolved to the satisfaction of the community and voted to disband. This paper tells the story of the artist and the working group, and how the media covered their story. It summarizes the environmental studies directed by the working group and briefly reviews the main findings of the epidemiology study. An epilogue records the present-day recollections of some of the key players in this environmental drama.

  8. Identifying and Addressing Vaccine Hesitancy

    PubMed Central

    Kestenbaum, Lori A.; Feemster, Kristen A.

    2015-01-01

    In the 20th century, the introduction of multiple vaccines significantly reduced childhood morbidity, mortality, and disease outbreaks. Despite, and perhaps because of, their public health impact, an increasing number of parents and patients are choosing to delay or refuse vaccines. These individuals are described as vaccine hesitant. This phenomenon has developed due to the confluence of multiple social, cultural, political and personal factors. As immunization programs continue to expand, understanding and addressing vaccine hesitancy will be crucial to their successful implementation. This review explores the history of vaccine hesitancy, its causes, and suggested approaches for reducing hesitancy and strengthening vaccine acceptance. PMID:25875982

  9. Identifying and addressing vaccine hesitancy.

    PubMed

    Kestenbaum, Lori A; Feemster, Kristen A

    2015-04-01

    In the 20th century, the introduction of multiple vaccines significantly reduced childhood morbidity, mortality, and disease outbreaks. Despite, and perhaps because of, their public health impact, an increasing number of parents and patients are choosing to delay or refuse vaccines. These individuals are described as "vaccine hesitant." This phenomenon has developed due to the confluence of multiple social, cultural, political, and personal factors. As immunization programs continue to expand, understanding and addressing vaccine hesitancy will be crucial to their successful implementation. This review explores the history of vaccine hesitancy, its causes, and suggested approaches for reducing hesitancy and strengthening vaccine acceptance.

  10. Managing Multiple Risk Factors for Cardiovascular Disease Through Anger/Hostility Control and Medicine

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2001-03-01

    of death in men and women. Cardiovascular disease , including CHD, kills nearly 500,000 American women each year and black women generally have a...and 30% of women reported having two or more of the following risk factors for cardiovascular disease : hypertension, high blood cholesterol, diabetes

  11. Parental incarceration and multiple risk experiences: effects on family dynamics and children's delinquency.

    PubMed

    Aaron, Lauren; Dallaire, Danielle H

    2010-12-01

    Children of incarcerated parents are exposed to factors that place them at risk for delinquency. Few studies have examined the effects of having an incarcerated parent after controlling for other experiences such as contextual risk factors and family processes. Past studies have also not examined effects of recent, but not current, parental incarceration on children. The present study examines an archival dataset, in which children aged 10-14 years and their parents/guardians reported children's risk experiences (e.g., exposure to poverty, parental substance use), family processes (e.g., level of family victimization, family conflict), and children's delinquent behaviors at two time points. Parents also reported their recent and past incarceration history. Hierarchical linear regression analyses show that a history of parental incarceration predicted family victimization, delinquent behaviors of children's older siblings, and delinquent behaviors of the child participants, over and above children's demographic characteristics and other risk experiences. Recent parental incarceration predicted family conflict, family victimization, and parent-reports of children's delinquency after also controlling for previous parental incarceration. The role of family processes in research and intervention directions involving children of incarcerated parents is discussed.

  12. Observed Sensitivity during Family Interactions and Cumulative Risk: A Study of Multiple Dyads per Family

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Browne, Dillon T.; Leckie, George; Prime, Heather; Perlman, Michal; Jenkins, Jennifer M.

    2016-01-01

    The present study sought to investigate the family, individual, and dyad-specific contributions to observed cognitive sensitivity during family interactions. Moreover, the influence of cumulative risk on sensitivity at the aforementioned levels of the family was examined. Mothers and 2 children per family were observed interacting in a round robin…

  13. [Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance--potential risk factor of multiple myeloma].

    PubMed

    Stelmach-Gołdyś, Agnieszka; Czarkowska-Paczek, Bozena

    2012-01-01

    Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) is a premalignant plasma-cell proliferative disorder characterized by the presence of a monoclonal immunoglobulin and associated with a life-long average 1% annual risk of developing lymphoproliferative malignancies. The prevalence of MGUS is about 3% in the general population 50 years of age or older. The current diagnostic criteria for MGUS are concentration of monoclonal protein in serum less that 3.0 g/dL, bone marrow plasmacytosis less that 10% and lack of organ damage including hypercalcaemia, renal impairment, anemia and bone lesions. Currently, there are no methods for classification of patients due to the risk of progression to MM, and there is no therapy to prevent the progression, so the standard treatment for patients with MGUS is observation. The increased risk of developing MGUS among first-degree relatives of MGUS patients is observed, however, due to the low absolute risk for MGUS and the lack of available intervention and early disease therapies, familial screening for MGUS is not recommended.

  14. Improving Attitudes in Reading through Multiple Instructional Strategies in an At-Risk Environment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bauer, Denise S.; Lupo, Jennifer L.

    This report describes a program for improving reading abilities and attitudes for "at-risk" students. The targeted population consists of second and fourth grade classes in a low-income community. The problem of low parental involvement, lack of books in the home, low motivation, and lack of consistency among reading programs and teachers…

  15. Methods for Addressing Uncertainty and Variability to Characterize Potential Health Risk From Trichloroethylene-Contaminated Ground Water Beale Air Force Base in California: Integration of Uncertainty and Variability in Pharmacokinetics and Dose-Response

    SciTech Connect

    Bogen, K.T.

    1999-09-29

    Traditional estimates of health risk are typically inflated, particularly if cancer is the dominant endpoint and there is fundamental uncertainty as to mechanism(s) of action. Risk is more realistically characterized if it accounts for joint uncertainty and interindividual variability after applying a unified probabilistic approach to the distributed parameters of all (linear as well as nonlinear) risk-extrapolation models involved. Such an approach was applied to characterize risks to potential future residents posed by trichloroethylene (TCE) in ground water at an inactive landfill site on Beale Air Force Base in California. Variability and uncertainty were addressed in exposure-route-specific estimates of applied dose, in pharmacokinetically based estimates of route-specific metabolized fractions of absorbed TCE, and in corresponding biologically effective doses estimated under a genotoxic/linear (MA{sub g}) vs. a cytotoxic/nonlinear (MA{sub c}) mechanistic assumption for TCE-induced cancer. Increased risk conditional on effective dose was estimated under MA{sub G} based on seven rodent-bioassay data sets, and under MA, based on mouse hepatotoxicity data. Mean and upper-bound estimates of combined risk calculated by the unified approach were <10{sup -6} and <10{sup -4}, respectively, while corresponding estimates based on traditional deterministic methods were >10{sup -5} and >10{sup -4}, respectively. It was estimated that no TCE-related harm is likely occur due any plausible residential exposure scenario involving the site. The unified approach illustrated is particularly suited to characterizing risks that involve uncertain and/or diverse mechanisms of action.

  16. A simple test of choice stepping reaction time for assessing fall risk in people with multiple sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Tijsma, Mylou; Vister, Eva; Hoang, Phu; Lord, Stephen R

    2017-03-01

    Purpose To determine (a) the discriminant validity for established fall risk factors and (b) the predictive validity for falls of a simple test of choice stepping reaction time (CSRT) in people with multiple sclerosis (MS). Method People with MS (n = 210, 21-74y) performed the CSRT, sensorimotor, balance and neuropsychological tests in a single session. They were then followed up for falls using monthly fall diaries for 6 months. Results The CSRT test had excellent discriminant validity with respect to established fall risk factors. Frequent fallers (≥3 falls) performed significantly worse in the CSRT test than non-frequent fallers (0-2 falls). With the odds of suffering frequent falls increasing 69% with each SD increase in CSRT (OR = 1.69, 95% CI: 1.27-2.26, p = <0.001). In regression analysis, CSRT was best explained by sway, time to complete the 9-Hole Peg test, knee extension strength of the weaker leg, proprioception and the time to complete the Trails B test (multiple R(2  )= ( )0.449, p < 0.001). Conclusions A simple low tech CSRT test has excellent discriminative and predictive validity in relation to falls in people with MS. This test may prove useful in documenting longitudinal changes in fall risk in relation to MS disease progression and effects of interventions. Implications for rehabilitation Good choice stepping reaction time (CSRT) is required for maintaining balance. A simple low-tech CSRT test has excellent discriminative and predictive validity in relation to falls in people with MS. This test may prove useful documenting longitudinal changes in fall risk in relation to MS disease progression and effects of interventions.

  17. Multiple pigmentation gene polymorphisms account for a substantial proportion of risk of cutaneous malignant melanoma.

    PubMed

    Duffy, David L; Zhao, Zhen Z; Sturm, Richard A; Hayward, Nicholas K; Martin, Nicholas G; Montgomery, Grant W

    2010-02-01

    We have previously described the role of red hair (melanocortin-1 receptor, MC1R) and blue eye (oculocutaneous albinism type II, OCA2) gene polymorphisms in modulating the risk of cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) in a highly sun-exposed population of European descent. A number of recent studies, including genome-wide association studies, have identified numerous polymorphisms controlling human hair, eye, and skin color. In this paper, we test a selected set of polymorphisms in pigmentation loci (ASIP (Agouti signalling protein, nonagouti homolog (mouse) gene), TYR (tyrosinase), TYRP1 (tyrosinase-related protein 1), MC1R, OCA2, IRF4 (interferon regulatory factor 4), SLC24A4 (solute carrier family 24, member 4), and SLC45A2 (solute carrier family 45, member 2)) for association with CMM risk in a large Australian population-based case-control study. Variants in IRF4 and SLC24A4, despite being strongly associated with pigmentation in our sample, did not modify CMM risk, but the other six did. Three single nucleotide polymorphisms (rs28777, rs35391, and rs16891982) in the MATP gene (SLC45A2) exhibited the strongest crude association with risk, but this was attenuated to approximately the same effect size as that of a MC1R red hair color allele by controlling for ancestry of cases and controls. We also detected significant epistatic interactions between SLC45A2 and OCA2 alleles, and MC1R and ASIP alleles. Overall, these measured variants account for 12% of the familial risk of CMM in our population.

  18. When neurologist and patient disagree on reasonable risk: new challenges in prescribing for patients with multiple sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Kachuck, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    New more powerful therapies for the treatment of multiple sclerosis may also confer a potential for unprecedented life-endangering side effects. How does a physician respond to a patient’s request for a treatment the benefit of which cannot be clearly established as worth its risk? The current challenge with prescription of natalizumab (Tysabri®, Biogen Idec) is used to illustrate how this conflict creates an opportunity to re-examine our goals as physicians and the nature of the physician–patient relationship. Understanding the physician’s role in that partnership, and the ethical and psychological issues impacting on how reasonable risk is determined, can improve the neurologist’s capacity to explicate such quandaries. Redefining what is required to mediate disagreement between doctors and patients about reasonable risk is at the heart of why many of us became physicians. However, such nuanced interpersonal dynamics of patient care can be neglected due to the time and resource pressures of our practices. These demands have increased the seductiveness of the efficiencies promoted by the trend toward the pseudo-objectification of evidence-based care, which has arguably monopolized the healing conversation often to the detriment of the shared narrative. We examine and attempt to reframe the fiduciary and biopsychosocial contretemps of the doctor and patient disagreeing on risk, emphasizing its humanistic, relational dimensions. PMID:21573081

  19. Risk Factors Associated with the Onset of Relapsing-Remitting and Primary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    McKay, Kyla A.; Kwan, Vivian; Duggan, Thomas; Tremlett, Helen

    2015-01-01

    Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic central nervous system disease with a highly heterogeneous course. The aetiology of MS is not well understood but is likely a combination of both genetic and environmental factors. Approximately 85% of patients present with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS), while 10–15% present with primary progressive MS (PPMS). PPMS is associated with an older onset age, a different sex ratio, and a considerably more rapid disease progression relative to RRMS. We systematically reviewed the literature to identify modifiable risk factors that may be associated with these different clinical courses. We performed a search of six databases and integrated twenty observational studies into a descriptive review. Exposure to Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) appeared to increase the risk of RRMS, but its association with PPMS was less clear. Other infections, such as human herpesvirus-6 and chlamydia pneumoniae, were not consistently associated with a specific disease course nor was cigarette smoking. Despite the vast literature examining risk factors for the development of MS, relatively few studies reported findings by disease course. This review exposes a gap in our understanding of the risk factors associated with the onset of PPMS, our current knowledge being predominated by relapsing-onset MS. PMID:25802867

  20. Risk factors associated with the onset of relapsing-remitting and primary progressive multiple sclerosis: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    McKay, Kyla A; Kwan, Vivian; Duggan, Thomas; Tremlett, Helen

    2015-01-01

    Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic central nervous system disease with a highly heterogeneous course. The aetiology of MS is not well understood but is likely a combination of both genetic and environmental factors. Approximately 85% of patients present with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS), while 10-15% present with primary progressive MS (PPMS). PPMS is associated with an older onset age, a different sex ratio, and a considerably more rapid disease progression relative to RRMS. We systematically reviewed the literature to identify modifiable risk factors that may be associated with these different clinical courses. We performed a search of six databases and integrated twenty observational studies into a descriptive review. Exposure to Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) appeared to increase the risk of RRMS, but its association with PPMS was less clear. Other infections, such as human herpesvirus-6 and chlamydia pneumoniae, were not consistently associated with a specific disease course nor was cigarette smoking. Despite the vast literature examining risk factors for the development of MS, relatively few studies reported findings by disease course. This review exposes a gap in our understanding of the risk factors associated with the onset of PPMS, our current knowledge being predominated by relapsing-onset MS.

  1. A non-synonymous single-nucleotide polymorphism associated with multiple sclerosis risk affects the EVI5 interactome

    PubMed Central

    Didonna, Alessandro; Isobe, Noriko; Caillier, Stacy J.; Li, Kathy H.; Burlingame, Alma L.; Hauser, Stephen L.; Baranzini, Sergio E.; Patsopoulos, Nikolaos A.; Oksenberg, Jorge R.

    2015-01-01

    Despite recent progress in the characterization of genetic loci associated with multiple sclerosis (MS) risk, the ubiquitous linkage disequilibrium operating across the genome has stalled efforts to distinguish causative variants from proxy single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Here, we have identified through fine mapping and meta-analysis EVI5 as the most plausible disease risk gene within the 1p22.1 locus. We further show that an exonic SNP associated with risk induces changes in superficial hydrophobicity patterns of the coiled-coil domain of EVI5, which, in turns, affects the EVI5 interactome. Immunoprecipitation of wild-type and mutated EVI5 followed by mass spectrometry generated a roster of disease-specific interactors functionally linked to lipid metabolism. Among the exclusive binding partners of the risk variant, we describe the novel interaction with sphingosine 1-phosphate lyase (SGPL1)—a key enzyme for the creation of the sphingosine-1 phosphate gradient, which is relevant to the pathogenic process and therapeutic management of MS. PMID:26433934

  2. In the Middle. Addressing the Needs of At Risk Students during the Middle Learning Years. Technical Team Report. Submitted to the Commission for Students At Risk of School Failure.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maryland State Dept. of Education, Baltimore.

    This report explores contributions that schools, communities, and families can make toward preventing and intervening in behavior that places young adolescents at risk. The first part of the report considers characteristics of early adolescents and an environmental balance that capitalizes on the diversity of adolescents to minimize their risk of…

  3. Nutrition interventions to address cardiovascular outcomes in chronic kidney disease.

    PubMed

    Beto, Judith A; Bansal, Vinod K

    2004-10-01

    The high mortality in chronic kidney disease has been linked to cardiovascular risk and these patients are considered at high risk. Dietary intervention can directly address nutritional risk factors in lipid management, calcium-phorphorus balance, and body composition to reduce risk of cardiovascular disease. Nutrient intake can also indirectly address less overt risks of dental health, nutritional supplements, and compliance issues.

  4. Approach to proliferation risk assessment based on multiple objective analysis framework

    SciTech Connect

    Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I.

    2013-07-01

    The approach to the assessment of proliferation risk using the methods of multi-criteria decision making and multi-objective optimization is presented. The approach allows the taking into account of the specifics features of the national nuclear infrastructure, and possible proliferation strategies (motivations, intentions, and capabilities). 3 examples of applying the approach are shown. First, the approach has been used to evaluate the attractiveness of HEU (high enriched uranium)production scenarios at a clandestine enrichment facility using centrifuge enrichment technology. Secondly, the approach has been applied to assess the attractiveness of scenarios for undeclared production of plutonium or HEU by theft of materials circulating in nuclear fuel cycle facilities and thermal reactors. Thirdly, the approach has been used to perform a comparative analysis of the structures of developing nuclear power systems based on different types of nuclear fuel cycles, the analysis being based on indicators of proliferation risk.

  5. Environmental exposure to pesticides and cancer risk in multiple human organ systems.

    PubMed

    Parrón, Tesifón; Requena, Mar; Hernández, Antonio F; Alarcón, Raquel

    2014-10-15

    There is growing evidence on the association between long-term exposure to pesticides in occupational settings and an elevated rate of chronic diseases, including different types of cancer. However, data on non-occupational exposures are scarce to draw any conclusion. The objective of this study was to investigate the putative associations of environmental pesticide exposures in the general population with several cancer sites and to discuss potential carcinogenic mechanisms by which pesticides develop cancer. A population-based case-control study was conducted among people residing in 10 Health districts from Andalusia (South Spain) to estimate the risk of cancer at different sites. Health districts were categorized into areas of high and low environmental pesticide exposure based on two quantitative criteria: number of hectares devoted to intensive agriculture and pesticide sales per capita. The study population consisted of 34,205 cancer cases and 1,832,969 age and health district matched controls. Data were collected by computerized hospital records (minimum dataset) between 1998 and 2005. Prevalence rates and the risk of cancer at most organ sites were significantly higher in districts with greater pesticide use related to those with lower pesticide use. Conditional logistic regression analyses showed that the population living in areas with high pesticide use had an increased risk of cancer at all sites studied (odds ratios between 1.15 and 3.45) with the exception of Hodgkin's disease and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The results of this study support and extend previous evidence from occupational studies indicating that environmental exposure to pesticides may be a risk factor for different types of cancer at the level of the general population.

  6. Epidemiology of multiple sclerosis in US veterans. III. Migration and the risk of MS

    SciTech Connect

    Kurtzke, J.F.; Beebe, G.W.; Norman, J.E. Jr.

    1985-05-01

    World War II or Korean Conflict veterans with MS (5,305 in number) and pre-illness-matched controls were compared for residence at birth and entry on active duty (EAD) within three north-south tiers of states in the United States. A strong north-south gradient of MS risk was present. Migrants were defined as those whose birth and EAD tier differed. For white men of World War II, all white men, and all whites, there were highly significant reductions in risk for moves southward from either the north or middle tier, and increases in risk for moves northward from the middle tier. Increases similar in magnitude of middle to north did not attain statistical significance in the few southern-born migrants. For the small groups of black men and white men of Korean service, trends were similar but did not attain significance, whereas for white women, they were of borderline significance. Findings imply an environmental cause for MS, with acquisition years before symptom-onset.

  7. Genome-wide association study identifies multiple loci associated with bladder cancer risk

    PubMed Central

    Figueroa, Jonine D.; Ye, Yuanqing; Siddiq, Afshan; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Chatterjee, Nilanjan; Prokunina-Olsson, Ludmila; Cortessis, Victoria K.; Kooperberg, Charles; Cussenot, Olivier; Benhamou, Simone; Prescott, Jennifer; Porru, Stefano; Dinney, Colin P.; Malats, Núria; Baris, Dalsu; Purdue, Mark; Jacobs, Eric J.; Albanes, Demetrius; Wang, Zhaoming; Deng, Xiang; Chung, Charles C.; Tang, Wei; Bas Bueno-de-Mesquita, H.; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Ljungberg, Börje; Clavel-Chapelon, Françoise; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Krogh, Vittorio; Dorronsoro, Miren; Travis, Ruth; Tjønneland, Anne; Brenan, Paul; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Riboli, Elio; Conti, David; Gago-Dominguez, Manuela; Stern, Mariana C.; Pike, Malcolm C.; Van Den Berg, David; Yuan, Jian-Min; Hohensee, Chancellor; Rodabough, Rebecca; Cancel-Tassin, Geraldine; Roupret, Morgan; Comperat, Eva; Chen, Constance; De Vivo, Immaculata; Giovannucci, Edward; Hunter, David J.; Kraft, Peter; Lindstrom, Sara; Carta, Angela; Pavanello, Sofia; Arici, Cecilia; Mastrangelo, Giuseppe; Kamat, Ashish M.; Lerner, Seth P.; Barton Grossman, H.; Lin, Jie; Gu, Jian; Pu, Xia; Hutchinson, Amy; Burdette, Laurie; Wheeler, William; Kogevinas, Manolis; Tardón, Adonina; Serra, Consol; Carrato, Alfredo; García-Closas, Reina; Lloreta, Josep; Schwenn, Molly; Karagas, Margaret R.; Johnson, Alison; Schned, Alan; Armenti, Karla R.; Hosain, G.M.; Andriole, Gerald; Grubb, Robert; Black, Amanda; Ryan Diver, W.; Gapstur, Susan M.; Weinstein, Stephanie J.; Virtamo, Jarmo; Haiman, Chris A.; Landi, Maria T.; Caporaso, Neil; Fraumeni, Joseph F.; Vineis, Paolo; Wu, Xifeng; Silverman, Debra T.; Chanock, Stephen; Rothman, Nathaniel

    2014-01-01

    Candidate gene and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 11 independent susceptibility loci associated with bladder cancer risk. To discover additional risk variants, we conducted a new GWAS of 2422 bladder cancer cases and 5751 controls, followed by a meta-analysis with two independently published bladder cancer GWAS, resulting in a combined analysis of 6911 cases and 11 814 controls of European descent. TaqMan genotyping of 13 promising single nucleotide polymorphisms with P < 1 × 10−5 was pursued in a follow-up set of 801 cases and 1307 controls. Two new loci achieved genome-wide statistical significance: rs10936599 on 3q26.2 (P = 4.53 × 10−9) and rs907611 on 11p15.5 (P = 4.11 × 10−8). Two notable loci were also identified that approached genome-wide statistical significance: rs6104690 on 20p12.2 (P = 7.13 × 10−7) and rs4510656 on 6p22.3 (P = 6.98 × 10−7); these require further studies for confirmation. In conclusion, our study has identified new susceptibility alleles for bladder cancer risk that require fine-mapping and laboratory investigation, which could further understanding into the biological underpinnings of bladder carcinogenesis. PMID:24163127

  8. Treatment of multiple myeloma with high-risk cytogenetics: a consensus of the International Myeloma Working Group

    PubMed Central

    Avet-Loiseau, Hervé; Lonial, Sagar; Usmani, Saad; Siegel, David; Anderson, Kenneth C.; Chng, Wee-Joo; Moreau, Philippe; Attal, Michel; Kyle, Robert A.; Caers, Jo; Hillengass, Jens; San Miguel, Jesús; van de Donk, Niels W. C. J.; Einsele, Hermann; Bladé, Joan; Durie, Brian G. M.; Goldschmidt, Hartmut; Mateos, María-Victoria; Palumbo, Antonio; Orlowski, Robert

    2016-01-01

    The International Myeloma Working Group consensus updates the definition for high-risk (HR) multiple myeloma based on cytogenetics Several cytogenetic abnormalities such as t(4;14), del(17/17p), t(14;16), t(14;20), nonhyperdiploidy, and gain(1q) were identified that confer poor prognosis. The prognosis of patients showing these abnormalities may vary with the choice of therapy. Treatment strategies have shown promise for HR cytogenetic diseases, such as proteasome inhibition in combination with lenalidomide/pomalidomide, double autologous stem cell transplant plus bortezomib, or combination of immunotherapy with lenalidomide or pomalidomide. Careful analysis of cytogenetic subgroups in trials comparing different treatments remains an important goal. Cross-trial comparisons may provide insight into the effect of new drugs in patients with cytogenetic abnormalities. However, to achieve this, consensus on definitions of analytical techniques, proportion of abnormal cells, and treatment regimens is needed. Based on data available today, bortezomib and carfilzomib treatment appear to improve complete response, progression-free survival, and overall survival in t(4;14) and del(17/17p), whereas lenalidomide may be associated with improved progression-free survival in t(4;14) and del(17/17p). Patients with multiple adverse cytogenetic abnormalities do not benefit from these agents. FISH data are implemented in the revised International Staging System for risk stratification. PMID:27002115

  9. Atherogenicity and carcinogenicity of high-arsenic artesian well water. Multiple risk factors and related malignant neoplasms of blackfoot disease

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, C.J.; Wu, M.M.; Lee, S.S.; Wang, J.D.; Cheng, S.H.; Wu, H.Y.

    1988-09-01

    The objective of this study was to examine multiple risk factors and correlated malignant neoplasms of blackfoot disease (BFD), a unique peripheral vascular disease related to continuous exposure to high-arsenic artesian well water. A total of 241 BFD cases, including 169 with spontaneous or surgical amputations of affected extremities, and 759 age-sex-residence-matched healthy community controls were studied to explore the risk factors of BFD. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that artesian well water consumption, arsenic poisoning, familial history of BFD, and undernourishment were significantly associated with the development of BFD. The life-table method used to analyze cancer mortality of 789 BFD patients followed for 15 years showed a significantly higher mortality from cardiovascular diseases, peripheral vascular diseases, and cancers of bladder, skin, lung, and liver among BFD patients as compared with the general population in Taiwan or residents in the BFD-endemic area. The results imply the atherogenicity and carcinogenicity of the artesian well water in the BFD-endemic area.

  10. Cognitive impairment and structural brain changes in patients with clinically isolated syndrome at high risk for multiple sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Hynčicová, Eva; Vyhnálek, Martin; Kalina, Adam; Martinkovič, Lukáš; Nikolai, Tomáš; Lisý, Jiří; Hort, Jakub; Meluzínová, Eva; Laczó, Jan

    2017-03-01

    Patients with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS), unlike those with multiple sclerosis (MS), have a selective cognitive impairment which is not consistently related to structural brain changes. Our objective was to characterize a profile of cognitive impairment and its association with structural brain changes in patients with CIS who are at high risk of developing MS. Patients with CIS at high risk for MS on interferon-beta (n = 51) and age-, gender-, and education-matched controls (n = 44) underwent comprehensive neuropsychological testing and MRI brain scan with voxel-based morphometry. The CIS group had lower cognitive performance in verbal and nonverbal memory, information processing speed/attention/working memory, and executive and visuo-spatial functions compared to controls (p ≤ 0.040). Lower cognitive performance was present in 18-37 and 14-26% of patients with CIS at high risk for MS depending on the criteria used. Brain volume was reduced predominantly in fronto-temporal regions and the thalamus in the CIS group (p ≤ 0.019). Cognitive performance was not associated with structural brain changes except for the association between worse visuo-spatial performance and lower white matter volume in the CIS group (β = 0.29; p = 0.042). Our results indicated that patients with CIS at high risk for MS may have a pattern of lower cognitive performance and regional brain atrophy similar to that found in patients with MS. Lower cognitive performance may be present in up to one-third of patients with CIS at high risk for MS, but, unlike patients with MS, variability in their cognitive performance may lead to a lack of consistent associations with structural brain changes.

  11. Pathogenic multiple antimicrobial resistant Escherichia coli serotypes in recreational waters of Mumbai, India: a potential public health risk.

    PubMed

    Maloo, Aayushi; Fulke, Abhay B; Mulani, Najmuddin; Sukumaran, Soniya; Ram, Anirudh

    2017-03-18

    Globally, coastal waters have emerged into a pool of antibiotic resistance genes and multiple antibiotic resistant microorganisms, and pathogenicity of these resistant microorganisms in terms of serotypes and virulence genes has made the environment vulnerable. The current study underscores the presence of multiple antibiotic resistant pathogenic serotypes and pathotypes of Escherichia coli, the predominant faecal indicator bacteria (FIB), in surface water and sediment samples of famous recreational beaches (Juhu, Versova, Mahim, Dadar, and Girgaon) of Mumbai. Out of 65 faecal coliforms (FC) randomly selected, 38 isolates were biochemically characterized, serotyped (for 'O' antigen), antibiogram-phenotyped (for 22 antimicrobial agents), and genotyped by polymerase chain reaction (for virulence factors). These isolates belonged to 16 different serotypes (UT, O141, O2, O119, O120, O9, O35, O126, O91, O128, O87, O86, R, O101, O118, and O15) out of which UT (18.4%), O141 (15.7%), and O2 (13.1%) were predominant, indicating its remarkable diversity. Furthermore, the generated antibiogram profile revealed that 95% of these isolates were multiple antibiotic resistant. More than 60% of aminoglycoside-sensitive E. coli isolates exhibited resistance to penicillin, extended penicillin, quinolone, and cephalosporin classes of antibiotic while resistance to other antibiotics was comparatively less. Antibiotic resistance (AR) indexing indicated that these isolates may have rooted from a high-risk source of contamination. Preliminary findings revealed the presence of enterotoxin-encoding genes (stx1 and stx2 specific for enterohaemorrhagic E. coli and Shiga toxin-producing E. coli, heat-stable toxin enterotoxin specific for enterotoxigenic E. coli) in pathogenic serotypes. Thus, government authorities and environmental planners should create public awareness and adopt effective measures for coastal management to prevent serious health risks associated with these contaminated

  12. [Treatment of multiple myeloma with intravenous pamidronate. Pain prevention and suppression of hypercalcemia risk].

    PubMed

    Díaz, Carlos; Soutelo, María J; Quiroga, Luis; Palmer, Luis; Lutfi, Rubén

    2004-01-01

    In a prospective clinical study, with the patient as its own control, we selected patients with stage III multiple myeloma. We treated them monthly with intravenous (i.v.) Disodic Pamidronate: 90 mg in 2 to 21 cycles. Four patients died during the study. The remaining 13 patients presented reduced bone resorption urinary markers (D-Pyr mainly) as well as urinary calcium (bone turnover reduction). Both effects (metabolic interchange reduction and calcium variation) did not show a direct relationship, being the 1st magnitude proportional to the baseline level and the 2nd independent from it. We noted pain reduction (VAS: visual analogs scale), low analgesic consumption, and the absence of future skeletal problems. The treatment tolerance was good. All these factors contribute to justify the welfare of the patient demonstrated by ECOG (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group), not only improving the average results but also extending this improvement to future results. Our observation suggests that under strict procedures, this treatment could be very adequate in patients with advanced multiple myeloma independent of the state of the disease at the beginning of the study.

  13. Exposure to Multiple Pesticides and Risk of Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma in Men from Six Canadian Provinces

    PubMed Central

    Hohenadel, Karin; Harris, Shelley A.; McLaughlin, John R.; Spinelli, John J.; Pahwa, Punam; Dosman, James A.; Demers, Paul A.; Blair, Aaron

    2011-01-01

    Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) has been linked to several agricultural exposures, including some commonly used pesticides. Although there is a significant body of literature examining the effects of exposure to individual pesticides on NHL, the impact of exposure to multiple pesticides or specific pesticide combinations has not been explored in depth. Data from a six-province Canadian case-control study conducted between 1991 and 1994 were analyzed to investigate the relationship between NHL, the total number of pesticides used and some common pesticide combinations. Cases (n = 513) were identified through hospital records and provincial cancer registries and controls (n = 1,506), frequency matched to cases by age and province of residence, were obtained through provincial health records, telephone listings, or voter lists. In multiple logistic regression analyses, risk of NHL increased with the number of pesticides used. Similar results were obtained in analyses restricted to herbicides, insecticides and several pesticide classes. Odds ratios increased further when only ‘potentially carcinogenic’ pesticides were considered (OR[one pesticide] = 1.30, 95% CI = 0.90–1.88; OR[two to four] = 1.54, CI = 1.11–2.12; OR[five or more] = 1.94, CI = 1.17–3.23). Elevated risks were also found among those reporting use of malathion in combination with several other pesticides. These analyses support and extend previous findings that the risk of NHL increases with the number of pesticides used and some pesticide combinations. PMID:21776232

  14. CD34-selected allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation for patients with relapsed, high-risk multiple myeloma

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Eric; Devlin, Sean M.; Orlando, Evelyn; Landau, Heather; Lesokhin, Alex M.; Chung, David J.; Hassoun, Hani; Lendvai, Nikoletta; Landgren, Ola; Giralt, Sergio; Chari, Ajai; Jagannath, Sundar; Koehne, Guenther

    2016-01-01

    We report results of a retrospective analysis of 44 patients with relapsed and high-risk multiple myeloma (MM) undergoing allogeneic CD34-selected hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (CD34-selected HSCT) from human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-compatible donors. Patients had multiply relapsed disease including relapse at <15 months after autologous transplant and most patients (28/44; 65%) also had high-risk cytogenetics. Before transplant, patients received busulfan (0.8 mg/kg X 10 doses), melphalan (70 mg/m2 X 2 days), fludarabine (25 mg/m2 X 5 days), and rabbit anti-thymocyte globulin (2.5 mg/kg X 2 days). Patients with 10/10 HLA-matched donors were treated prophylactically with low doses of donor lymphocyte infusions (0.5 to 1 X 106 CD3+/kg) starting at 4–6 months post CD34-selected HSCT. Acute (grade II–IV) graph-versus-host disease (GVHD) and transplant-related mortality at 12 months were 2% and 18%, respectively. Chronic GVHD was not observed in any patient. Overall and progression-free survival at 2 years was 54% and 31%, respectively. By multivariate analyses, the outcomes of CD34-selected HSCT were influenced by presence of extramedullary disease, disease status prior to CD34-selected HSCT and age. This study demonstrates notable safety and efficacy of CD34-selected HSCT in patients with multiply relapsed MM including those with high-risk cytogenetics. PMID:26325439

  15. Sexual behavior, risk perception, and HIV transmission can respond to HIV antiviral drugs and vaccines through multiple pathways.

    PubMed

    Tully, Stephen; Cojocaru, Monica; Bauch, Chris T

    2015-10-28

    There has been growing use of highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) for HIV and significant progress in developing prophylactic HIV vaccines. The simplest theories of counterproductive behavioral responses to such interventions tend to focus on single feedback mechanisms: for instance, HAART optimism makes infection less scary and thus promotes risky sexual behavior. Here, we develop an agent based, age-structured model of HIV transmission, risk perception, and partner selection in a core group to explore behavioral responses to interventions. We find that interventions can activate not one, but several feedback mechanisms that could potentially influence decision-making and HIV prevalence. In the model, HAART increases the attractiveness of unprotected sex, but it also increases perceived risk of infection and, on longer timescales, causes demographic impacts that partially counteract HAART optimism. Both HAART and vaccination usually lead to lower rates of unprotected sex on the whole, but intervention effectiveness depends strongly on whether individuals over- or under-estimate intervention coverage. Age-specific effects cause sexual behavior and HIV prevalence to change in opposite ways in old and young age groups. For complex infections like HIV-where interventions influence transmission, demography, sexual behavior and risk perception-we conclude that evaluations of behavioral responses should consider multiple feedback mechanisms.

  16. Polymorphisms of methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR), methionine synthase (MTR), methionine synthase reductase (MTRR), and thymidylate synthase (TYMS) in multiple myeloma risk.

    PubMed

    Lima, Carmen S P; Ortega, Manoela M; Ozelo, Margareth C; Araujo, Renato C; De Souza, Cármino A; Lorand-Metze, Irene; Annichino-Bizzacchi, Joyce M; Costa, Fernando F

    2008-03-01

    We tested whether the polymorphisms of the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase gene, MTHFR C677T and A1298C, the methionine synthase gene, MTR A2756G, the methionine synthase reductase gene, MTRR A66G, and the thymidylate synthase gene, TYMS 2R-->3R, involved in folate and methionine metabolism, altered the risk for multiple myeloma (MM). Genomic DNA from 123MM patients and 188 controls was analysed by polymerase chain reaction and restriction digestion for the polymorphism analyses. The frequency of the MTR 2756 AG plus GG genotype was higher in patients than in controls (39.8% versus 23.4%, P=0.001). Individual carriers of the variant allele G had a 2.31 (95% CI: 1.38-3.87)-fold increased risk for MM compared with others. In contrast, similar frequencies of the MTHFR, the MTRR and the TYMS genotypes were seen in patients and controls. These results suggest, for the first time, a role for the MTR A2756G polymorphism in MM risk in our country, but should be confirmed by large-scale epidemiological studies with patients and controls age matched.

  17. Multiple adipose depots increase cardiovascular risk via local and systemic effects

    PubMed Central

    Karastergiou, Kalypso; Fried, Susan K.

    2014-01-01

    Adipose tissue modifies the development of cardiovascular disease in a complex manner: obesity is a major risk factor, but particularly when accompanied with a central fat distribution. For that reason the characteristics of visceral adipose tissue attracted the majority of research interest thus far and measurement of waist circumference is now recommended for everyday clinical practice. However, the direct, causative role of visceral fat in cardiometabolic disease remains to be established. Epidemiological and clinical studies show that accumulation of fat subcutaneously, in the gluteo-femoral area, is protective for cardiovascular disease, but the exact molecular mechanisms remain again unclear. In the last few years, imaging allowed the study of smaller fat depots that may interact locally with important tissues: epicardial fat with the myocardium, perivascular fat with the vessel wall and the developing atherosclerotic plaque, renal sinus fat with the renal artery. Unraveling the heterogeneous fat distribution and metabolic phenotypes in human obesity will facilitate optimal assessment of cardiovascular risk in overweight and obese individuals. PMID:23982264

  18. Multiple factors in the prediction of risk of proliferative diabetic retinopathy.

    PubMed

    Rand, L I; Krolewski, A S; Aiello, L M; Warram, J H; Baker, R S; Maki, T

    1985-12-05

    To identify risk factors for the development of proliferative diabetic retinopathy, we compared 111 patients with longstanding insulin-dependent diabetes who had proliferative retinopathy (cases) with 81 patients with diabetes of similar duration (an average of 26 years) who did not have proliferative diabetic retinopathy (controls). The cases had diabetes that was more difficult to manage, as evidenced by their more frequent blood sugar levels above 200 mg per deciliter (11 mmol per liter) on routine clinic visits (odds ratio, 1.6 for each increment of 10 per cent in the relative frequency), and they expended less effort in managing their diabetes, as indicated by their less frequent testing of urine for sugar (odds ratio, 0.3). Among those who did not have myopia, the cases also had an excess of the HLA-DR phenotypes 4/0, 3/0, or X/X (odds ratio, 10.0). Among those with myopia, these phenotypes did not carry an increased risk of proliferative retinopathy. These results support a multifactorial model for the development of proliferative diabetic retinopathy; however, the mechanisms of action of the identified factors remain unknown.

  19. Risk of Alcohol-Impaired Driving Recidivism Among First Offenders and Multiple Offenders

    PubMed Central

    Zador, Paul L.; Ahlin, Eileen M.; Howard, Jan M.; Frissell, Kevin C.; Duncan, G. Doug

    2010-01-01

    Objectives. We sought to determine the statewide impact of having prior alcohol-impaired driving violations of any type on the rate of first occurrence or recidivism among drivers with 0, 1, 2, or 3 or more prior violations in Maryland. Methods. We analyzed more than 100 million driver records from 1973 to 2004 and classified all Maryland drivers into 4 groups: those with 0, 1, 2, or 3 or more prior violations. The violation rates for approximately 21 million drivers in these 4 groups were compared for the study period 1999 to 2004. Results. On average, there were 3.4, 24.3, 35.9, and 50.8 violations per 1000 drivers a year among those with 0, 1, 2, or 3 or more priors, respectively. The relative risks for men compared with women among these groups of drivers were 3.8, 1.2, 1.0, and 1.0, respectively. Conclusions. The recidivism rate among first offenders more closely resembles that of second offenders than of nonoffenders. Men and women are at equal risk of recidivating once they have had a first violation documented. Any alcohol-impaired driving violation, not just convictions, is a marker for future recidivism. PMID:19846687

  20. Multiple endpoints for somatic mutations in humans provide complementary views for biodosimetry, genotoxicity, and health risks

    SciTech Connect

    Jensen, R.H.; Bigbee, W.L.; Langlois, R.G.

    1989-07-24

    There are now four somatic cell mutation assays that are being used to determine in vivo mutagenesis in humans. Each assay is identified by an acronym that specifies the protein in which mutations are determined: HPRT assay, GPA assay, HLA assay, and Hb assay. Potentially, each assay can be used for either of two important applications; biodosimetry or cancer risk estimation. Biodosimetry is a means for determining the amount of exposure of an individual to a toxic agent by measuring the biological effect on the individual who was exposed. Based on the observation that many toxic chemicals and ionizing radiation are mutagenic to cells in culture and also to animals, the somatic mutation assays also should serve as biodosimeters for exposure of humans to these genotoxic phenomena. These four somatic mutation assays should contribute to the possibility of estimating each individual's risk of developing cancer by monitoring for the presence of genotoxicity events similar to cancer initiation events or cancer promotion events on suppressor genes. 16 refs., 4 tabs.

  1. A scenario-based modeling approach for emergency evacuation management and risk analysis under multiple uncertainties.

    PubMed

    Lv, Y; Huang, G H; Guo, L; Li, Y P; Dai, C; Wang, X W; Sun, W

    2013-02-15

    Nuclear emergency evacuation is important to prevent radioactive harms by hazardous materials and to limit the accidents' consequences; however, uncertainties are involved in the components and processes of such a management system. In the study, an interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming (IJIP) method is developed for emergency evacuation management under uncertainties. Optimization techniques of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and joint-probabilistic constrained (JPC) programming are incorporated into an integer linear programming framework, so that the approach can deal with uncertainties expressed as joint probability and interval values. The IJIP method can schedule the optimal routes to guarantee the maximum population evacuated away from the effected zone during a finite time. Furthermore, it can also facilitate post optimization analysis to enhance robustness in controlling system violation risk imposed on the joint-probabilistic constraints. The developed method has been applied to a case study of nuclear emergency management; meanwhile, a number of scenarios under different system conditions have been analyzed. It is indicated that the solutions are useful for evacuation management practices. The result of the IJIP method can not only help to raise the capability of disaster responses in a systematic manner, but also provide an insight into complex relationships among evacuation planning, resources utilizations, policy requirements and system risks.

  2. Genome-wide association analysis of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia, Hodgkin lymphoma and multiple myeloma identifies pleiotropic risk loci

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Law, Philip J.; Sud, Amit; Mitchell, Jonathan S.; Henrion, Marc; Orlando, Giulia; Lenive, Oleg; Broderick, Peter; Speedy, Helen E.; Johnson, David C.; Kaiser, Martin; Weinhold, Niels; Cooke, Rosie; Sunter, Nicola J.; Jackson, Graham H.; Summerfield, Geoffrey; Harris, Robert J.; Pettitt, Andrew R.; Allsup, David J.; Carmichael, Jonathan; Bailey, James R.; Pratt, Guy; Rahman, Thahira; Pepper, Chris; Fegan, Chris; von Strandmann, Elke Pogge; Engert, Andreas; Försti, Asta; Chen, Bowang; Filho, Miguel Inacio Da Silva; Thomsen, Hauke; Hoffmann, Per; Noethen, Markus M.; Eisele, Lewin; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Allan, James M.; Swerdlow, Anthony J.; Goldschmidt, Hartmut; Catovsky, Daniel; Morgan, Gareth J.; Hemminki, Kari; Houlston, Richard S.

    2017-01-01

    B-cell malignancies (BCM) originate from the same cell of origin, but at different maturation stages and have distinct clinical phenotypes. Although genetic risk variants for individual BCMs have been identified, an agnostic, genome-wide search for shared genetic susceptibility has not been performed. We explored genome-wide association studies of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL, N = 1,842), Hodgkin lymphoma (HL, N = 1,465) and multiple myeloma (MM, N = 3,790). We identified a novel pleiotropic risk locus at 3q22.2 (NCK1, rs11715604, P = 1.60 × 10‑9) with opposing effects between CLL (P = 1.97 × 10‑8) and HL (P = 3.31 × 10‑3). Eight established non-HLA risk loci showed pleiotropic associations. Within the HLA region, Ser37 + Phe37 in HLA-DRB1 (P = 1.84 × 10‑12) was associated with increased CLL and HL risk (P = 4.68 × 10‑12), and reduced MM risk (P = 1.12 × 10‑2), and Gly70 in HLA-DQB1 (P = 3.15 × 10‑10) showed opposing effects between CLL (P = 3.52 × 10‑3) and HL (P = 3.41 × 10‑9). By integrating eQTL, Hi-C and ChIP-seq data, we show that the pleiotropic risk loci are enriched for B-cell regulatory elements, as well as an over-representation of binding of key B-cell transcription factors. These data identify shared biological pathways influencing the development of CLL, HL and MM. The identification of these risk loci furthers our understanding of the aetiological basis of BCMs.

  3. Genome-wide association analysis of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia, Hodgkin lymphoma and multiple myeloma identifies pleiotropic risk loci

    PubMed Central

    Law, Philip J.; Sud, Amit; Mitchell, Jonathan S.; Henrion, Marc; Orlando, Giulia; Lenive, Oleg; Broderick, Peter; Speedy, Helen E.; Johnson, David C.; Kaiser, Martin; Weinhold, Niels; Cooke, Rosie; Sunter, Nicola J.; Jackson, Graham H.; Summerfield, Geoffrey; Harris, Robert J.; Pettitt, Andrew R.; Allsup, David J.; Carmichael, Jonathan; Bailey, James R.; Pratt, Guy; Rahman, Thahira; Pepper, Chris; Fegan, Chris; von Strandmann, Elke Pogge; Engert, Andreas; Försti, Asta; Chen, Bowang; Filho, Miguel Inacio da Silva; Thomsen, Hauke; Hoffmann, Per; Noethen, Markus M.; Eisele, Lewin; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Allan, James M.; Swerdlow, Anthony J.; Goldschmidt, Hartmut; Catovsky, Daniel; Morgan, Gareth J.; Hemminki, Kari; Houlston, Richard S.

    2017-01-01

    B-cell malignancies (BCM) originate from the same cell of origin, but at different maturation stages and have distinct clinical phenotypes. Although genetic risk variants for individual BCMs have been identified, an agnostic, genome-wide search for shared genetic susceptibility has not been performed. We explored genome-wide association studies of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL, N = 1,842), Hodgkin lymphoma (HL, N = 1,465) and multiple myeloma (MM, N = 3,790). We identified a novel pleiotropic risk locus at 3q22.2 (NCK1, rs11715604, P = 1.60 × 10−9) with opposing effects between CLL (P = 1.97 × 10−8) and HL (P = 3.31 × 10−3). Eight established non-HLA risk loci showed pleiotropic associations. Within the HLA region, Ser37 + Phe37 in HLA-DRB1 (P = 1.84 × 10−12) was associated with increased CLL and HL risk (P = 4.68 × 10−12), and reduced MM risk (P = 1.12 × 10−2), and Gly70 in HLA-DQB1 (P = 3.15 × 10−10) showed opposing effects between CLL (P = 3.52 × 10−3) and HL (P = 3.41 × 10−9). By integrating eQTL, Hi-C and ChIP-seq data, we show that the pleiotropic risk loci are enriched for B-cell regulatory elements, as well as an over-representation of binding of key B-cell transcription factors. These data identify shared biological pathways influencing the development of CLL, HL and MM. The identification of these risk loci furthers our understanding of the aetiological basis of BCMs. PMID:28112199

  4. A nested case-control study of multiple myeloma risk and uranium exposure among workers at the Oak Ridge Gaseous Diffusion Plant.

    PubMed

    Yiin, James H; Anderson, Jeri L; Daniels, Robert D; Seel, Evelyn A; Fleming, Donald A; Waters, Kathleen M; Chen, Pi-Hsueh

    2009-06-01

    The primary risk factors of multiple myeloma are age, race and sex, but several studies have found an association between radiological hazards and multiple myeloma. The purpose of this nested case-control study was to investigate whether workers with chronic low-level exposure to internally deposited uranium at the Oak Ridge Gaseous Diffusion Plant in eastern Tennessee were at higher risk of dying of multiple myeloma than those without occupational exposure to uranium, with the consideration of potential confounders of external ionizing radiation and occupational chemical hazards such as mercury, nickel and trichloroethylene. The main analyses were carried out using conditional logistic regression on 98 cases and 490 controls (five controls matched to each case on gender, race and age at risk). Our study showed a weak association between internal uranium dose estimated from urinalysis results and multiple myeloma risk: OR = 1.04 (95% CI 1.00-1.09) at 10 microGy with the inclusion of other risk factors. The parameter estimates and the corresponding odds ratios were very similar when internal doses were imputed for subjects without urine samples. Further studies that include updating this cohort and combining with workers from other gaseous diffusion plants are needed to investigate the relationship between multiple myeloma risk and radiation or other chemical exposures.

  5. [Surgical therapeutic strategy in vital risk polytrauma with multiple organ injuries, case report].

    PubMed

    Munteanu, Iulia; Stefan, S; Isloi, Anca; Coca, I C; Baroi, Genoveva; Radu, L; Lăpuşneanu, A; Tamaş, Camelia

    2008-01-01

    The medical interest for trauma pathology is incresing, due to the gravity of the given injuries. The surgical therapeutic strategy used is directly related to the localization and to the type of the trauma. The supplementary lesions and their vital risk also matter. The multidisciplinary team approach is the key to resolve this type of lesions with a good outcome. We recently observed an increasing tendency toward the rise of number and variety of patients with trauma, due to the great diversity of the etiopathogenic agents. The most important factor, during the assessment of a politraumatised patient is to diagnose correctly the functional deficits of vital organs and establish the vital prognosis. It is necessary to adopt the best and fast therapeutic strategy in order to obtain rapid life-saving decisions.

  6. Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest, based on multiple hazard scenarios, analytical methods and new techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toma-Danila, Dragos; Florinela Manea, Elena; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen

    2014-05-01

    Bucharest, capital of Romania (with 1678000 inhabitants in 2011), is one of the most exposed big cities in Europe to seismic damage. The major earthquakes affecting the city have their origin in the Vrancea region. The Vrancea intermediate-depth source generates, statistically, 2-3 shocks with moment magnitude >7.0 per century. Although the focal distance is greater than 170 km, the historical records (from the 1838, 1894, 1908, 1940 and 1977 events) reveal severe effects in the Bucharest area, e.g. intensities IX (MSK) for the case of 1940 event. During the 1977 earthquake, 1420 people were killed and 33 large buildings collapsed. The nowadays building stock is vulnerable both due to construction (material, age) and soil conditions (high amplification, generated within the weak consolidated Quaternary deposits, their thickness is varying 250-500m throughout the city). A number of 373 old buildings, out of 2563, evaluated by experts are more likely to experience severe damage/collapse in the next major earthquake. The total number of residential buildings, in 2011, was 113900. In order to guide the mitigation measures, different studies tried to estimate the seismic risk of Bucharest, in terms of buildings, population or economic damage probability. Unfortunately, most of them were based on incomplete sets of data, whether regarding the hazard or the building stock in detail. However, during the DACEA Project, the National Institute for Earth Physics, together with the Technical University of Civil Engineering Bucharest and NORSAR Institute managed to compile a database for buildings in southern Romania (according to the 1999 census), with 48 associated capacity and fragility curves. Until now, the developed real-time estimation system was not implemented for Bucharest. This paper presents more than an adaptation of this system to Bucharest; first, we analyze the previous seismic risk studies, from a SWOT perspective. This reveals that most of the studies don't use

  7. Environmental occurrence and risk of organic UV filters and stabilizers in multiple matrices in Norway.

    PubMed

    Langford, Katherine H; Reid, Malcolm J; Fjeld, Eirik; Øxnevad, Sigurd; Thomas, Kevin V

    2015-07-01

    Eight organic UV filters and stabilizers were quantitatively determined in wastewater sludge and effluent, landfill leachate, sediments, and marine and freshwater biota. Crab, prawn and cod from Oslofjord, and perch, whitefish and burbot from Lake Mjøsa were selected in order to evaluate the potential for trophic accumulation. All of the cod livers analysed were contaminated with at least 1 UV filter, and a maximum concentration of almost 12 μg/g wet weight for octocrylene (OC) was measured in one individual. 80% of the cod livers contained OC, and approximately 50% of cod liver and prawn samples contained benzophenone (BP3). Lower concentrations and detection frequencies were observed in freshwater species and the data of most interest is the 4 individual whitefish that contained both BP3 and ethylhexylmethoxycinnamate (EHMC) with maximum concentrations of almost 200 ng/g wet weight. The data shows a difference in the loads of UV filters entering receiving water dependent on the extent of wastewater treatment. Primary screening alone is insufficient for the removal of selected UV filters (BP3, Padimate, EHMC, OC, UV-234, UV-327, UV-328, UV-329). Likely due in part to the hydrophobic nature of the majority of the UV filters studied, particulate loading and organic carbon content appear to be related to concentrations of UV filters in landfill leachate and an order of magnitude difference in these parameters correlates with an order of magnitude difference in the effluent concentrations of selected UV filters (Fig. 2). From the data, it is possible that under certain low flow conditions selected organic UV filters may pose a risk to surface waters but under the present conditions the risk is low, but some UV filters will potentially accumulate through the trophic food chain.

  8. CD24: from a Hematopoietic Differentiation Antigen to a Genetic Risk Factor for Multiple Autoimmune Diseases.

    PubMed

    Tan, Yixin; Zhao, Ming; Xiang, Bo; Chang, Christopher; Lu, Qianjin

    2016-02-01

    The autoantibody is an essential characteristic of inflammatory disorders, including autoimmune diseases. Although the exact pathogenic mechanisms of these diseases remain elusive, accumulated evidence has implicated that genetic factors play important roles in autoimmune inflammation. Among these factors, CD24 was first identified as a heat-stable antigen in 1978 and first successfully cloned in 1990. Thereafter, its functional roles have been intensively investigated in various human diseases, especially autoimmune diseases and cancers. It is currently known that CD24 serves as a costimulatory factor of T cells that regulate their homeostasis and proliferation, while in B cells, CD24 is functionally involved in cell activation and differentiation. CD24 can enhance autoimmune diseases in terms of its protective role in the clonal deletion of autoreactive thymocytes. Furthermore, CD24 deficiency has been linked to mouse experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis. Finally, CD24 genetic variants, including single-nucleotide polymorphisms and deletions, are etiologically relevant to autoimmune diseases, such as multiple sclerosis and systemic lupus erythematosus. Therefore, CD24 is a promising biomarker and novel therapeutic target for autoimmune diseases.

  9. Case-control study of multiple myeloma with special reference to diet as risk factor.

    PubMed

    Vlajinac, H D; Pekmezović, T D; Adanja, B J; Marinković, J M; Kanazir, M S; Suvajdzić, N D; Colović, M D

    2003-01-01

    The case-control study was conducted in Belgrade (Yugoslavia) during the period 1994-1998. The objective of the study was to investigate factors related to the occurrence of multiple myeloma (MM). The study group consisted of 100 newly diagnosed MM patients and the same number of matched hospital controls. In the analysis conditional univariate and multivariate logistic regression were applied. According to multivariate analysis the following factors were significantly related to MM: smoking > or =25 cigarettes per day (Odds ratio--OR=6.7, 95% confidence interval--95% CI=1.3-34.3); having more than two brothers (OR=2.7, 95% CI=1.3-5.3), rheumatoid arthritis in personal history (OR=4.2, 95% CI=1.2-14.8), and frequent (4-7 times per week vs. lower frequency) consumption of yogurt (OR=3.1, 95% CI=1.6-6.0) and vegetables (OR=0.4, 95% CI=0.1-1.0).

  10. Sociocultural and Demographic Risk Factors for the Development of Multiple Sclerosis in Kuwait: A Case - Control Study

    PubMed Central

    Al-Shammri, Suhail N.; Hanna, Magdy G.; Chattopadhyay, Arpita; Akanji, Abayomi O.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Immunological, genetic and environmental factors are believed to play important roles in the pathogenesis of Multiple Sclerosis (MS). There have been many studies on risk factors for MS but these have been mainly in Caucasian populations; robust studies in Arab populations remain relatively uncommon. This study therefore aimed to identify behavioral, socio-cultural, and demographic factors associated with development of MS in Kuwait, a high income Arab country, currently undergoing a demographic transition. Subjects and methods In this case- control study, 195 Kuwaiti MS patients and 146 healthy age and sex-matched controls were recruited. Both groups of subjects were interviewed using a structured questionnaire, in relation to anthropometric, socio-cultural and demographic data, residence during the 1990/91 Gulf War and current and past medical history, including medications. We also clinically evaluated, and retrospectively reviewed medical records of patients to derive appropriate clinical information, including associated chronic medical illness requiring long-term treatment. Results On multiple logistic regression analysis after adjustment for potential confounders including age, gender and BMI, in all the subjects, a positive associations prevail with presence of MS and some sociocultural and demographic factors, which included non-Bedouin ethnicity (AOR 2, 95% CI 1.0-3.9, p 0.049), positive family history of MS (AOR 10.6, 95% CI 3.0-36.9), p < 0.001), and low daily sunlight exposure of < 15min/day (AOR 5.3, 95% CI 2.7-10.5 p < 0.001). In addition, while 41.8% of MS patients indicated at least one comorbidity, only 26.8% of the controls reported any associated physical illness, with the suggestion that presence of certain comorbidities might increase MS risk (AOR 2.4, 95% CI 1.3-4.7, p < 0.001). Other risk variables such as smoking status and mode of routine outdoor dressing were not significant in all the MS subjects taken as a whole, but

  11. Bridge to the Future. Addressing The Needs of Students At Risk during the High School Years. Technical Team Report. Submitted to the Commission for Students At Risk of School Failure.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maryland State Dept. of Education, Baltimore.

    This report analyzes practices and conditions that seek to prevent at-risk behaviors among adolescents. Discussion begins with a description of the developmental tasks that adolescents need to complete before they can assume productive adult roles in society. While two conflicting views of adolescence are noted, the capacity of young people to…

  12. Estimating the Sizes of Populations At Risk of HIV Infection From Multiple Data Sources Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model.

    PubMed

    Bao, Le; Raftery, Adrian E; Reddy, Amala

    2015-04-01

    In most countries in the world outside of sub-Saharan Africa, HIV is largely concentrated in sub-populations whose behavior puts them at higher risk of contracting and transmitting HIV, such as people who inject drugs, sex workers and men who have sex with men. Estimating the size of these sub-populations is important for assessing overall HIV prevalence and designing effective interventions. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the sizes of local and national HIV key affected populations. The model incorporates multiple commonly used data sources including mapping data, surveys, interventions, capture-recapture data, estimates or guesstimates from organizations, and expert opinion. The proposed model is used to estimate the numbers of people who inject drugs in Bangladesh.

  13. Screening houses for vapor intrusion risks: a multiple regression analysis approach.

    PubMed

    Johnston, Jill E; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald

    2013-06-04

    The migration of chlorinated volatile organic compounds from groundwater to indoor air-known as vapor intrusion-can be an important exposure pathway at hazardous waste sites. Because sampling indoor air at every potentially affected home is often logistically infeasible, screening tools are needed to help identify at-risk homes. Currently, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) uses a simple screening approach that employs a generic vapor "attenuation factor," the ratio of the indoor air pollutant concentration to the pollutant concentration in the soil gas directly above the groundwater table. At every potentially affected home above contaminated groundwater, the EPA assumes the vapor attenuation factor is less than 1/1000--that is, that the indoor air concentration will not exceed 1/1000 times the soil-gas concentration immediately above groundwater. This paper reports on a screening-level model that improves on the EPA approach by considering environmental, contaminant, and household characteristics. The model is based on an analysis of the EPA's vapor intrusion database, which contains almost 2,400 indoor air and corresponding subsurface concentration samples collected in 15 states. We use the site data to develop a multilevel regression model for predicting the vapor attenuation factor. We find that the attenuation factor varies significantly with soil type, depth to groundwater, season, household foundation type, and contaminant molecular weight. The resulting model decreases the rate of false negatives compared to EPA's screening approach.

  14. The synergistic toxicity of the multiple chemical mixtures: implications for risk assessment in the terrestrial environment.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chen; Wang, Yanhua; Qian, Yongzhong; Zhao, Xueping; Wang, Qiang

    2015-04-01

    The combined toxicity of five insecticides (chlorpyrifos, avermectin, imidacloprid, λ-cyhalothrin, and phoxim), two herbicides (atrazine and butachlor) and a heavy metal (cadmium) has been examined with the earthworm acute toxicity test. Toxicological interactions of these chemicals in four, five, six, seven, and eight-component mixtures were studied using the combination-index (CI) equation method. In four-component and five-component mixtures, the synergistic effects predominated at lower effect levels, while the patterns of interactions found in six, seven, and eight-component mixtures displayed synergism. The λ-CY+IMI+BUT+ATR+CPF+PHO combination displayed the most strongly synergistic interaction, with CI values ranging from 0.09 to 0.15. The nature of the interaction changes with the effect level and the relevance of synergistic effects increase with the complexity of the mixture. The CI method was compared with the classical models of concentration addition (CA) and independent action (IA) and we found that the CI method could accurately predict the combined toxicity. The predicted synergism resulted from co-existence of the pesticides and the heavy metal especially at low effect levels may have important implications in risk assessment for the real terrestrial environment.

  15. Cereblon and IRF4 Variants Affect Risk and Response to Treatment in Multiple Myeloma.

    PubMed

    Butrym, Aleksandra; Łacina, Piotr; Rybka, Justyna; Chaszczewska-Markowska, Monika; Mazur, Grzegorz; Bogunia-Kubik, Katarzyna

    2017-01-12

    Multiple myeloma (MM) is a plasma-cell malignancy derived from an early precursor of the B-cell lineage characterised by bone-marrow infiltration, lytic bone lesions, and the presence of a monoclonal protein in serum and/or urine. Interferon regulatory factor 4 (IRF4) is a critical transcriptional regulator in B-cell development and function that is required during immune response for lymphocyte activation and the generation of immunoglobulin-secreting plasma cells. Immunomodulatory drugs, derivatives of thalidomide, are commonly used in therapy against MM. They are known to target a protein called cereblon (CRBN); however, the exact mechanism remains unknown. The present study aimed to assess the association of two (rs12203592 and rs872071) polymorphisms within the IRF4 gene and two (rs711613 and rs1045433) in the CRBN gene with MM susceptibility, progression, and response to treatment. For this purpose, 144 MM patients and 126 healthy individuals were genotyped for the IRF4 and CRBN alleles. The presence of the IRF4 (rs872071) G allele was more frequently detected in patients than healthy individuals (OR 1.78; P = 0.034), and this relationship was especially pronounced in women (OR 2.83; P = 0.012). The CRBN (rs711613) A allele-carriers were better responders to the treatment (P = 0.012), in particular to thalidomide including therapy (P = 0.023). These results underline the prognostic significance of the IRF4 and CRBN polymorphisms in patients with MM.

  16. Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans.

    PubMed

    Amin Al Olama, Ali; Dadaev, Tokhir; Hazelett, Dennis J; Li, Qiuyan; Leongamornlert, Daniel; Saunders, Edward J; Stephens, Sarah; Cieza-Borrella, Clara; Whitmore, Ian; Benlloch Garcia, Sara; Giles, Graham G; Southey, Melissa C; Fitzgerald, Liesel; Gronberg, Henrik; Wiklund, Fredrik; Aly, Markus; Henderson, Brian E; Schumacher, Fredrick; Haiman, Christopher A; Schleutker, Johanna; Wahlfors, Tiina; Tammela, Teuvo L; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Key, Tim J; Travis, Ruth C; Neal, David E; Donovan, Jenny L; Hamdy, Freddie C; Pharoah, Paul; Pashayan, Nora; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Stanford, Janet L; Thibodeau, Stephen N; Mcdonnell, Shannon K; Schaid, Daniel J; Maier, Christiane; Vogel, Walther; Luedeke, Manuel; Herkommer, Kathleen; Kibel, Adam S; Cybulski, Cezary; Wokołorczyk, Dominika; Kluzniak, Wojciech; Cannon-Albright, Lisa; Brenner, Hermann; Butterbach, Katja; Arndt, Volker; Park, Jong Y; Sellers, Thomas; Lin, Hui-Yi; Slavov, Chavdar; Kaneva, Radka; Mitev, Vanio; Batra, Jyotsna; Clements, Judith A; Spurdle, Amanda; Teixeira, Manuel R; Paulo, Paula; Maia, Sofia; Pandha, Hardev; Michael, Agnieszka; Kierzek, Andrzej; Govindasami, Koveela; Guy, Michelle; Lophatonanon, Artitaya; Muir, Kenneth; Viñuela, Ana; Brown, Andrew A; Freedman, Mathew; Conti, David V; Easton, Douglas; Coetzee, Gerhard A; Eeles, Rosalind A; Kote-Jarai, Zsofia

    2015-10-01

    Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same region.

  17. Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

    PubMed Central

    Amin Al Olama, Ali; Dadaev, Tokhir; Hazelett, Dennis J.; Li, Qiuyan; Leongamornlert, Daniel; Saunders, Edward J.; Stephens, Sarah; Cieza-Borrella, Clara; Whitmore, Ian; Benlloch Garcia, Sara; Giles, Graham G.; Southey, Melissa C.; Fitzgerald, Liesel; Gronberg, Henrik; Wiklund, Fredrik; Aly, Markus; Henderson, Brian E.; Schumacher, Fredrick; Haiman, Christopher A.; Schleutker, Johanna; Wahlfors, Tiina; Tammela, Teuvo L.; Nordestgaard, Børge G.; Key, Tim J.; Travis, Ruth C.; Neal, David E.; Donovan, Jenny L.; Hamdy, Freddie C.; Pharoah, Paul; Pashayan, Nora; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Stanford, Janet L.; Thibodeau, Stephen N.; Mcdonnell, Shannon K.; Schaid, Daniel J.; Maier, Christiane; Vogel, Walther; Luedeke, Manuel; Herkommer, Kathleen; Kibel, Adam S.; Cybulski, Cezary; Wokołorczyk, Dominika; Kluzniak, Wojciech; Cannon-Albright, Lisa; Brenner, Hermann; Butterbach, Katja; Arndt, Volker; Park, Jong Y.; Sellers, Thomas; Lin, Hui-Yi; Slavov, Chavdar; Kaneva, Radka; Mitev, Vanio; Batra, Jyotsna; Clements, Judith A.; Spurdle, Amanda; Teixeira, Manuel R.; Paulo, Paula; Maia, Sofia; Pandha, Hardev; Michael, Agnieszka; Kierzek, Andrzej; Govindasami, Koveela; Guy, Michelle; Lophatonanon, Artitaya; Muir, Kenneth; Viñuela, Ana; Brown, Andrew A.; Freedman, Mathew; Conti, David V.; Easton, Douglas; Coetzee, Gerhard A.; Eeles, Rosalind A.; Kote-Jarai, Zsofia

    2015-01-01

    Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same region. PMID:26025378

  18. Challenging conventional risk assessment with respect to human exposure to multiple food contaminants in food: A case study using maize.

    PubMed

    Clarke, R; Connolly, L; Frizzell, C; Elliott, C T

    2015-10-01

    Mycotoxins and heavy metals are ubiquitous in the environment and contaminate many foods. The widespread use of pesticides in crop production to control disease contributes further to the chemical contamination of foods. Thus multiple chemical contaminants threaten the safety of many food commodities; hence the present study used maize as a model crop to identify the severity in terms of human exposure when multiple contaminants are present. High Content Analysis (HCA) measuring multiple endpoints was used to determine cytotoxicity of complex mixtures of mycotoxins, heavy metals and pesticides. Endpoints included nuclear intensity (NI), nuclear area (NA), plasma membrane permeability (PMP), mitochondrial membrane potential (MMP) and mitochondrial mass (MM). At concentrations representing legal limits of each individual contaminant in maize (3ng/ml ochratoxin A (OTA), 1μg/ml fumonisin B1 (FB1), 2ng/ml aflatoxin B1 (AFB1), 100ng/ml cadmium (Cd), 150ng/ml arsenic (As), 50ng/ml chlorpyrifos (CP) and 5μg/ml pirimiphos methyl (PM), the mixtures (tertiary mycotoxins plus Cd/As) and (tertiary mycotoxins plus Cd/As/CP/PM) were cytotoxic for NA and MM endpoints with a difference of up to 13.6% (p≤0.0001) and 12% (p≤0.0001) respectively from control values. The most cytotoxic mixture was (tertiary mycotoxins plus Cd/As/CP/PM) across all 4 endpoints (NA, NI, MM and MMP) with increases up to 61.3%, 23.0%, 61.4% and 36.3% (p≤0.0001) respectively. Synergy was evident for two endpoints (NI and MM) at concentrations contaminating maize above legal limits, with differences between expected and measured values of (6.2-12.4% (p≤0.05-p≤0.001) and 4.5-12.3% (p≤0.05-p≤0.001) for NI and MM, respectively. The study introduces for the first time, a holistic approach to identify the impact in terms of toxicity to humans when multiple chemical contaminants are present in foodstuffs. Governmental regulatory bodies must begin to contemplate how to safeguard the population when

  19. A registry-based case-control study of risk factors for the development of multiple non-fatal injuries on the job.

    PubMed

    Li, C Y; Du, C L; Chen, C J; Sung, F C

    1999-07-01

    Using compensation records of Taiwan, we conducted a case-control study nested within a cohort of 77,846 active workers who experienced at least one incidence of non-fatal work-related injury between 1994 and 1996 in order to explore factors associated with risk of sustaining multiple non-fatal injuries in the workplace. Cases (n = 2,616) were workers with more than three incidences of non-fatal injury during the study period and controls (n = 3,974) were randomly sampled from workers who experienced only one incidence of non-fatal injury during the same period. Compared with construction workers, workers employed in mining and quarrying (OR = 2.7), manufacturing (OR = 1.2), commerce (OR = 1.6), transport, storage and communication (OR = 1.3) and social, personal and community service (OR = 1.4) were all at significantly elevated risk of multiple non-fatal injuries. Both age and wage showed a significant dose-response effect on the risk of developing multiple non-fatal injuries. The preliminary analysis suggests that workers in certain industries are at significantly elevated risks of multiple work-related non-fatal injuries, in particular those in the mining and quarry industries. Additionally, further preventive measures should be aimed at protecting older workers from such injuries and further studies would help provide more specific interpretations on the positive association between higher wage earning and risk of multiple non-fatal injuries.

  20. Estimation of risk based on multiple events in radiation carcinogenesis of rat skin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burns, F. J.; Jin, Y.; Garte, S. J.; Hosselet, S.

    1994-10-01

    In the multistage theory of carcinogenesis, cells progress to cancer through a series of discrete, irreversible, heritable genetic alterations or mutations. However data on radiation-induced cancer incidence in rat skin suggests that some part of an intermediate repairable alteration may occur. Data are presented on cancer induction in rat skin exposed to the following radiations: 1. an electron beam (LET = 0.34 keV/um, 2. a neon ion beam (LET = 25 keV/um and 3. an argon ion beam (LET = 125 keV/um. The latter 2 beams were generated by the Bevalac at the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley, CA. About 6.0 cm2 of skin was irradiated per rat. The rats were observed every 6 weeks for at least 78 weeks and tumors were scored at first occurrence. Several histological types of cancer, including squamous and basal cell carcinomas, were induced. The cancer yield versus radiation dose was fitted by the quadratic equation (Y (D) = CLD + BD2), and the parameters C and B were estimated for each type of radiation. Analysis of the DNA from the electron-induced carcinomas indicated that K-ras and/or c-myc oncogenes were activated in all tumors tested, although only a small proportion of neon-induced tumors showed similar activation. In situ hybridization indicated that the cancers contain subpopulations of cells with differing amounts of c-myc and H-ras amplification. The results are consistent with the idea that ionizing radiation produces carcinogenically relevant lesions via 2 repairable events at low LET and via a non-repairable, linked event pathway at high LET; either pathway may advance the cell by 1 stage in the multistage model. The model, if validated, permits the direct calculation of cancer risk in rat skin in a way that can be subjected to experimental testing.

  1. Multiple Risk Factors of Alcoholic and Non-Alcoholic Myocardial Infarction Patients

    PubMed Central

    Harisharan; Singh, Awnish Kumar; Dangal, Nidhu Ram; Surapaneni, Krishna Mohan; Joshi, Ashish

    2016-01-01

    Background: Myocardial infarction (MI) is one of the most critical medical emergency and contributor to morbidity and mortality worldwide. Myocardial infarction is the most common form of coronary heart disease and leading cause of premature death. Past century has seen substantial advancement in the field of medical sciences but still mortality trends due to myocardial infarction is increasing in developing countries including India. We have conducted this study to compare the Sociodemographic characteristics of alcoholic and non alcoholic MI patients admitted in coronary care unit of Saveetha Medical College, Chennai, India. Methods: An exploratory cross sectional study was performed by enrolling a convenient sample of 100 Myocardial Infarction patients. Information about Sociodemographic characteristics, past medical history, alcohol and tobacco intake, physical activity, psychological stress and biochemical measurements was gathered. Results: The mean age of the respondents was 46 (SD=6) years and majority of them were male i.e. 82%. 100% married and 89% literate, there were 24% past and 22% present alcoholics. Consumption of alcohol on a monthly, weekly and daily basis was 8%, 11% and 5% respectively. Preference to brandy was 67%, rum was 21% and that the beer was 12%. Current smoker were 20% and former were 11%. 93% and 52% respondents were under medication of beta blocker and angiotensin-converting-enzyme (ACE) inhibitors respectively. Conclusion: Worldwide, MI is the most common cause of mortality and morbidity and hence early diagnosis and management is most essential. Results from our study revealed that, participants had sedentary lifestyles where risk factors of MI such as alcohol consumption, and smoking does existed. PMID:26234988

  2. Skin sensitization risk assessment model using artificial neural network analysis of data from multiple in vitro assays.

    PubMed

    Tsujita-Inoue, Kyoko; Hirota, Morihiko; Ashikaga, Takao; Atobe, Tomomi; Kouzuki, Hirokazu; Aiba, Setsuya

    2014-06-01

    The sensitizing potential of chemicals is usually identified and characterized using in vivo methods such as the murine local lymph node assay (LLNA). Due to regulatory constraints and ethical concerns, alternatives to animal testing are needed to predict skin sensitization potential of chemicals. For this purpose, combined evaluation using multiple in vitro and in silico parameters that reflect different aspects of the sensitization process seems promising. We previously reported that LLNA thresholds could be well predicted by using an artificial neural network (ANN) model, designated iSENS ver.1 (integrating in vitro sensitization tests version 1), to analyze data obtained from two in vitro tests: the human Cell Line Activation Test (h-CLAT) and the SH test. Here, we present a more advanced ANN model, iSENS ver.2, which additionally utilizes the results of antioxidant response element (ARE) assay and the octanol-water partition coefficient (LogP, reflecting lipid solubility and skin absorption). We found a good correlation between predicted LLNA thresholds calculated by iSENS ver.2 and reported values. The predictive performance of iSENS ver.2 was superior to that of iSENS ver.1. We conclude that ANN analysis of data from multiple in vitro assays is a useful approach for risk assessment of chemicals for skin sensitization.

  3. MRI screening for breast cancer in women at high risk; is the Australian breast MRI screening access program addressing the needs of women at high risk of breast cancer?

    SciTech Connect

    Schenberg, Tess; Mitchell, Gillian; Taylor, Donna; Saunders, Christobel

    2015-09-15

    Breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) screening of women under 50 years old at high familial risk of breast cancer was given interim funding by Medicare in 2009 on the basis that a review would be undertaken. An updated literature review has been undertaken by the Medical Services Advisory Committee but there has been no assessment of the quality of the screening or other screening outcomes. This review examines the evidence basis of breast MRI screening and how this fits within an Australian context with the purpose of informing future modifications to the provision of Medicare-funded breast MRI screening in Australia. Issues discussed will include selection of high-risk women, the options for MRI screening frequency and measuring the outcomes of screening.

  4. Immunochip analyses identify a novel risk locus for primary biliary cirrhosis at 13q14, multiple independent associations at four established risk loci and epistasis between 1p31 and 7q32 risk variants.

    PubMed

    Juran, Brian D; Hirschfield, Gideon M; Invernizzi, Pietro; Atkinson, Elizabeth J; Li, Yafang; Xie, Gang; Kosoy, Roman; Ransom, Michael; Sun, Ye; Bianchi, Ilaria; Schlicht, Erik M; Lleo, Ana; Coltescu, Catalina; Bernuzzi, Francesca; Podda, Mauro; Lammert, Craig; Shigeta, Russell; Chan, Landon L; Balschun, Tobias; Marconi, Maurizio; Cusi, Daniele; Heathcote, E Jenny; Mason, Andrew L; Myers, Robert P; Milkiewicz, Piotr; Odin, Joseph A; Luketic, Velimir A; Bacon, Bruce R; Bodenheimer, Henry C; Liakina, Valentina; Vincent, Catherine; Levy, Cynthia; Franke, Andre; Gregersen, Peter K; Bossa, Fabrizio; Gershwin, M Eric; deAndrade, Mariza; Amos, Christopher I; Lazaridis, Konstantinos N; Seldin, Michael F; Siminovitch, Katherine A

    2012-12-01

    To further characterize the genetic basis of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), we genotyped 2426 PBC patients and 5731 unaffected controls from three independent cohorts using a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array (Immunochip) enriched for autoimmune disease risk loci. Meta-analysis of the genotype data sets identified a novel disease-associated locus near the TNFSF11 gene at 13q14, provided evidence for association at six additional immune-related loci not previously implicated in PBC and confirmed associations at 19 of 22 established risk loci. Results of conditional analyses also provided evidence for multiple independent association signals at four risk loci, with haplotype analyses suggesting independent SNP effects at the 2q32 and 16p13 loci, but complex haplotype driven effects at the 3q25 and 6p21 loci. By imputing classical HLA alleles from this data set, four class II alleles independently contributing to the association signal from this region were identified. Imputation of genotypes at the non-HLA loci also provided additional associations, but none with stronger effects than the genotyped variants. An epistatic interaction between the IL12RB2 risk locus at 1p31and the IRF5 risk locus at 7q32 was also identified and suggests a complementary effect of these loci in predisposing to disease. These data expand the repertoire of genes with potential roles in PBC pathogenesis that need to be explored by follow-up biological studies.

  5. Carfilzomib and pomalidomide in patients with relapsed and/or refractory multiple myeloma with baseline risk factors.

    PubMed

    Dimopoulos, M A; Sonneveld, P; Siegel, D; Palumbo, A; San-Miguel, J

    2015-11-01

    While survival times have increased over the last decade, most patients with multiple myeloma (MM) eventually relapse and become refractory to therapy. The treatment of patients with relapsed and/or refractory MM is frequently further complicated by the presence of pre-existing comorbidities that arise from an advanced disease state and of toxicities stemming from prior antimyeloma treatment. Carfilzomib and pomalidomide have recently been approved for the treatment of patients with relapsed and refractory MM. While these agents represent important additions to the available treatment options, the identification of patients who may best benefit from the use of each of therapy is still being investigated. A number of patient-related and disease-related factors may impact treatment efficacy and/or tolerability, and the clinical presentation and medical history of each patient must be carefully considered to optimize treatment. Here, we review results from carfilzomib and pomalidomide clinical trials in patients with relapsed and/or refractory MM who also have baseline comorbidities or treatment-induced or disease-induced complications (including the presence of renal impairment, cardiac risk factors, peripheral neuropathy, or high-risk chromosomal abnormalities) to evaluate the safety and efficacy of the two agents in these difficult-to-treat patients and to provide treatment recommendations specific to each scenario.

  6. Applying Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis to Comparative Benefit-Risk Assessment: Choosing among Statins in Primary Prevention.

    PubMed

    Tervonen, Tommi; Naci, Huseyin; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Ades, Anthony E; Angelis, Aris; Hillege, Hans L; Postmus, Douwe

    2015-10-01

    Decision makers in different health care settings need to weigh the benefits and harms of alternative treatment strategies. Such health care decisions include marketing authorization by regulatory agencies, practice guideline formulation by clinical groups, and treatment selection by prescribers and patients in clinical practice. Multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a family of formal methods that help make explicit the tradeoffs that decision makers accept between the benefit and risk outcomes of different treatment options. Despite the recent interest in MCDA, certain methodological aspects are poorly understood. This paper presents 7 guidelines for applying MCDA in benefit-risk assessment and illustrates their use in the selection of a statin drug for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. We provide guidance on the key methodological issues of how to define the decision problem, how to select a set of nonoverlapping evaluation criteria, how to synthesize and summarize the evidence, how to translate relative measures to absolute ones that permit comparisons between the criteria, how to define suitable scale ranges, how to elicit partial preference information from the decision makers, and how to incorporate uncertainty in the analysis. Our example on statins indicates that fluvastatin is likely to be the most preferred drug by our decision maker and that this result is insensitive to the amount of preference information incorporated in the analysis.

  7. Conditional Creation and Rescue of Nipbl-Deficiency in Mice Reveals Multiple Determinants of Risk for Congenital Heart Defects

    PubMed Central

    Jacobs, Russell E.; Lopez-Burks, Martha E.; Choi, Hojae; Wikenheiser, Jamie; Hallgrimsson, Benedikt; Jamniczky, Heather A.; Fraser, Scott E.; Lander, Arthur D.; Calof, Anne L.

    2016-01-01

    Elucidating the causes of congenital heart defects is made difficult by the complex morphogenesis of the mammalian heart, which takes place early in development, involves contributions from multiple germ layers, and is controlled by many genes. Here, we use a conditional/invertible genetic strategy to identify the cell lineage(s) responsible for the development of heart defects in a Nipbl-deficient mouse model of Cornelia de Lange Syndrome, in which global yet subtle transcriptional dysregulation leads to development of atrial septal defects (ASDs) at high frequency. Using an approach that allows for recombinase-mediated creation or rescue of Nipbl deficiency in different lineages, we uncover complex interactions between the cardiac mesoderm, endoderm, and the rest of the embryo, whereby the risk conferred by genetic abnormality in any one lineage is modified, in a surprisingly non-additive way, by the status of others. We argue that these results are best understood in the context of a model in which the risk of heart defects is associated with the adequacy of early progenitor cell populations relative to the sizes of the structures they must eventually form. PMID:27606604

  8. The town of Cabar, Croatia, a high risk area for multiple sclerosis--analytic epidemiology of dietary factors.

    PubMed

    Perković, Olivio; Jurjević, Ante; Rudez, Josip; Antoncić, Igor; Bralić, Marina; Kapović, Miljenko

    2010-04-01

    Multiple sclerosis (MS) is demyelization disease of central nervous system of unidentified causes. Analytic epidemiological research of 19 patients, clinically approved cases of MS and 25 controls, autochthonic inhabitants of town of Cabar, Croatia, the high-risk zone for the disease, was made. The research plan included case-control investigation--the "door to door" questionnaire--about nutrition habits. An odds ratio (OR) was calculated for all the factors which were more frequently found in the patients than in the controls, and vice versa. The variables that were connected with significant risk for MS in the town of Cabar included: alcohol consumption (p = 0.05), animal fats/dried meat products consumption (p = 0.007), nitrate salting (p = 0.03), strong spices (p = 0.007), mixed bread (p = 0.002), oat and oat products consumption (p = 0.0075). No connection was found with regular consumption of vegetables and fruit (p = 0.009), blue fresh fish (p = 0.028), other fresh fish (p = 0.03), freshwater fish (p = 0.002), canned fish (p = 0.004), dormouse meat (p = 0.007), air-dried meat products (p = 0.004) and using the water from water supply (p = 0.011). In the town of Cabar nutritional customs, primarily food rich in animal fats, alcohol-abuse, and oat consumption could have an influence on MS pathogenesis in genetically inclined individuals.

  9. Addressing Ozone Layer Depletion

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Access information on EPA's efforts to address ozone layer depletion through regulations, collaborations with stakeholders, international treaties, partnerships with the private sector, and enforcement actions under Title VI of the Clean Air Act.

  10. Associations of common variants in genes involved in metabolism and response to exogenous chemicals with risk of multiple myeloma

    PubMed Central

    Gold, Laura S.; De Roos, Anneclaire J.; Brown, Elizabeth E.; Lan, Qing; Milliken, Kevin; Davis, Scott; Chanock, Stephen J.; Zhang, Yawei; Severson, Richard; Zahm, Sheila H.; Zheng, Tongzhang; Rothman, Nat; Baris, Dalsu

    2009-01-01

    Background We examined risk of multiple myeloma (MM) associated with variants in genes involved in metabolism and response to exogenous chemicals [cytochrome P450 enzymes (CYP1B1, CYP2C9), epoxide hydrolase (EPHX1), paraoxonase 1 (PON1), arylhydrocarbon hydroxylase receptor (AHR), and NAD(P)H:quinone oxidoreductase (NQO1)]. Methods This study included 279 MM cases and 782 controls in a pooled analysis of two population-based case control studies. One common variant from each candidate gene was genotyped using DNA from blood or buccal cells. We estimated risk of MM associated with each genotype, controlling for race, gender, study site, and age, using odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results Evaluations of the CYP1B1 V432L variant (rs1056836) suggested increased risk of MM among persons with the CG and GG genotypes compared to the CC genotype [OR (95% CI) = 1.4 (1.0–2.0)]. Similar results were seen in analyses stratified by race and gender. We did not find any associations between MM and the CYP2C9, EPHX1, NQO1, or PON1 genes. Conclusions CYP1B1 activates chemicals such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and dioxins to create oxidized, reactive intermediates, and higher gene activity has been shown for the G allele. We conducted the largest analysis to date on MM and these genetic variants and our results provide preliminary evidence that variation in CYP1B1 may influence susceptibility to MM. PMID:19736056

  11. Nanoscale content-addressable memory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davis, Bryan (Inventor); Principe, Jose C. (Inventor); Fortes, Jose (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A combined content addressable memory device and memory interface is provided. The combined device and interface includes one or more one molecular wire crossbar memories having spaced-apart key nanowires, spaced-apart value nanowires adjacent to the key nanowires, and configurable switches between the key nanowires and the value nanowires. The combination further includes a key microwire-nanowire grid (key MNG) electrically connected to the spaced-apart key nanowires, and a value microwire-nanowire grid (value MNG) electrically connected to the spaced-apart value nanowires. A key or value MNGs selects multiple nanowires for a given key or value.

  12. The CCND1 870G>A polymorphism is a risk factor for t(11;14)(q13;q32) multiple myeloma

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Bowang; Försti, Asta; Hosking, Fay J; Broderick, Peter; Ma, Yussanne P; Dobbins, Sara E; Hose, Dirk; Walker, Brian A; Davies, Faith E; Kaiser, Martin F; Li, Ni L; Gregory, Walter A; Jackson, Graham H; Witzens-Harig, Mathias; Neben, Kai; Hoffmann, Per; Nöthen, Markus M; Mühleisen, Thomas W; Eisele, Lewin; Ross, Fiona M; Jauch, Anna; Goldschmidt, Hartmut; Houlston, Richard S; Morgan, Gareth J; Hemminki, Kari

    2016-01-01

    A number of specific chromosomal abnormalities define the subgroups of multiple myeloma. In a meta-analysis of two genomewide association studies of multiple myeloma totaling 1,661 patients we investigated risk for developing a specific tumor karyotype. The t(11;14) (q13;q32) translocation in which CCDN1 is placed under the control of the immunoglobin heavy chain enhancer was strongly associated with the CCDN1 870G>A polymorphism (P =7.96 x10-11). These results provide for a model in which a constitutional genetic factor is associated with risk of a specific chromosomal translocation. PMID:23502783

  13. Probabilistic risk assessment of dietary exposure to single and multiple pesticide residues or contaminants: summary of the work performed within the SAFE FOODS project.

    PubMed

    van Klaveren, Jacob D; Boon, Polly E

    2009-12-01

    This introduction to the journal's supplement on probabilistic risk assessment of single and multiple exposure to pesticide residues or contaminants summarizes the objectives and results of the work performed in work package 3 of the EU-funded project SAFE FOODS. Within this work package, we developed an electronic platform of food consumption and chemical concentration databases harmonised at raw agricultural commodity level. In this platform the databases are connected to probabilistic software to allow probabilistic modelling of dietary exposure in a standardised way. The usefulness of this platform is demonstrated in two papers, which describe the exposure to pesticides and glycoalkaloids in several European countries. Furthermore, an integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model was developed: a new tool to integrate exposure and effect modelling, including uncertainty analyses. The use of this model was shown in a paper on the cumulative exposure to anti-androgen pesticides. Combined with a health impact prioritization system, developed within this work package to compare heath risks between chemicals, the IPRA tool can also be used to compare health risks between multiple chemicals in complex risk assessment situation such as risk-benefit and risk trade-off analyses. Both the electronic platform of databases as the IPRA model may proof to be powerful tools to tackle the challenges risk managers are or will be faced with in the future.

  14. Atomic clusters with addressable complexity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wales, David J.

    2017-02-01

    A general formulation for constructing addressable atomic clusters is introduced, based on one or more reference structures. By modifying the well depths in a given interatomic potential in favour of nearest-neighbour interactions that are defined in the reference(s), the potential energy landscape can be biased to make a particular permutational isomer the global minimum. The magnitude of the bias changes the resulting potential energy landscape systematically, providing a framework to produce clusters that should self-organise efficiently into the target structure. These features are illustrated for small systems, where all the relevant local minima and transition states can be identified, and for the low-energy regions of the landscape for larger clusters. For a 55-particle cluster, it is possible to design a target structure from a transition state of the original potential and to retain this structure in a doubly addressable landscape. Disconnectivity graphs based on local minima that have no direct connections to a lower minimum provide a helpful way to visualise the larger databases. These minima correspond to the termini of monotonic sequences, which always proceed downhill in terms of potential energy, and we identify them as a class of biminimum. Multiple copies of the target cluster are treated by adding a repulsive term between particles with the same address to maintain distinguishable targets upon aggregation. By tuning the magnitude of this term, it is possible to create assemblies of the target cluster corresponding to a variety of structures, including rings and chains.

  15. Observation on frequency & clinico-pathological significance of various cytogenetic risk groups in multiple myeloma: an experience from India

    PubMed Central

    Kadam Amare, Pratibha S.; Jain, Hemani; Nikalje, Shraddha; Sengar, Manju; Menon, Hari; Inamdar, Nitin; Subramanian, P. G.; Gujral, Sumeet; Shet, Tanuja; Epari, Sridhar; Nair, Reena

    2016-01-01

    Background & objectives: Multiple myeloma (MM) is a plasma cell malignancy characterized by cytogenetic heterogeneity. In comparison with conventional karyotyping, fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) can efficiently detect various genetic changes in non-cycling plasma cells in 50-90 per cent of MM cases. The present study was undertaken in MM patients to evaluate the frequency and clinico-pathological significance of various cytogenetic abnormalities in the Indian population. Methods: Interphase FISH was applied on purified plasma cells of 475 patients with MM using specific probes. Interphase FISH for 1q gain/1q amplification was performed on a separate group of 250 newly diagnosed MM patients. Results: Low frequency of Δ13 [-13/del(13q)] (32%) and t(11;14) (5%) was observed in our 475 patients probably due to ethnic diversity. Clustering of Δ13, del(17) (p13.1) and IgH translocations in non-hyperdiploidy confirmed prognostic significance of ploidy in MM. t(4;14) and del(17) (p13.1) were high-risk groups due to correlation with high serum β2-microglobulin, increased plasma cells and advanced disease. Hyperdiploidy and t(14;16) were associated with higher age group. In a separate group of 250 patients, 1q amplification [amp(1q)] in combination with Δ13 and/or del(17p) with t(4;14) revealed association with adverse clinico-laboratory features, which confirmed progressive role of amp(1q) with adverse prognostic impact. Amp(1q) was clustered at 1q21 and 1q25 loci. Interpretation & conclusions: Based on our findings, it appears that comprehensive analysis of various cytogenetic aberrations by interphase FISH is a powerful strategy being adapted for risk stratification of MM. PMID:28256461

  16. X-ray radiation and the risk of multiple sclerosis: Do the site and dose of exposure matter?

    PubMed Central

    Motamed, Mohammad Reza; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Abbasi, Maryam; Sanei, Mastaneh; Abbaslou, Mina; Meysami, Somayeh

    2014-01-01

    Background: The sporadic cases of radiation-activated multiple sclerosis (MS) has been previously described, with a few studies focused on the relationship between radiation and the risk of MS. The aim of our study was to evaluate the association between history of X-ray radiation and MS. Methods: This case-control study was conducted on 150 individuals including 65 MS patients and 85 age- and sex-matched healthy controls enrolled using non-probability convenient sampling. Any history of previous Xray radiation consisted of job-related X-ray exposure, radiotherapy, radiographic evaluations including chest Xray, lumbosacral X-ray, skull X-ray, paranasal sinuses (PNS) X-ray, gastrointestinal (GI) series, foot X-ray and brain CT scanning were recorded and compared between two groups. Statistical analysis was performed using independent t test, Chi square and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve methods through SPSS software. Results: History of both diagnostic [OR=3.06 (95% CI: 1.32-7.06)] and therapeutic [OR=7.54 (95% CI: 1.5935.76) X-ray radiations were significantly higher among MS group. Mean number of skull X-rays [0.4 (SD=0.6) vs. 0.1 (SD=0.3), p=0.004] and brain CT scanning [0.9 (SD=0.8) vs. 0.5 (SD=0.7), p=0.005] was higher in MS group as well as mean of the cumulative X-ray radiation dosage [1.84 (SD=1.70) mSv vs. 1.11 (SD=1.54) mSv; p=0.008]. Conclusion: Our study was one of the first to show higher history of X-ray radiation in patients with MS compared to healthy controls. A possible association was also found between the dose and the site exposed to X-ray radiation and risk of developing MS PMID:25695003

  17. Addressing Social Issues.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schoebel, Susan

    1991-01-01

    Maintains that advertising can help people become more aware of social responsibilities. Describes a successful nationwide newspaper advertising competition for college students in which ads address social issues such as literacy, drugs, teen suicide, and teen pregnancy. Notes how the ads have helped grassroots programs throughout the United…

  18. Invitational Addresses, 1965.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gates, Arthur I.; And Others

    The full texts of invitational addresses given at the 1965 International Reading Association (IRA) Convention in Detroit, Michigan, by six recipients of IRA citation awards are presented. Gates suggests steps IRA should take to revive and redirect reading research. McCallister discusses the implications of the changing and expanding vocabulary of…

  19. States Address Achievement Gaps.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Christie, Kathy

    2002-01-01

    Summarizes 2 state initiatives to address the achievement gap: North Carolina's report by the Advisory Commission on Raising Achievement and Closing Gaps, containing an 11-point strategy, and Kentucky's legislation putting in place 10 specific processes. The North Carolina report is available at www.dpi.state.nc.us.closingthegap; Kentucky's…

  20. Addressing Sexual Harassment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Young, Ellie L.; Ashbaker, Betty Y.

    2008-01-01

    This article discusses ways on how to address the problem of sexual harassment in schools. Sexual harassment--simply defined as any unwanted and unwelcome sexual behavior--is a sensitive topic. Merely providing students, parents, and staff members with information about the school's sexual harassment policy is insufficient; schools must take…

  1. MELISSE, a large multicentric observational study to determine risk factors of venous thromboembolism in patients with multiple myeloma treated with immunomodulatory drugs.

    PubMed

    Leleu, Xavier; Rodon, Philippe; Hulin, Cyrille; Daley, Laurent; Dauriac, Charles; Hacini, Maya; Decaux, Olivier; Eisemann, Jean-Claude; Fitoussi, Olivier; Lioure, Bruno; Voillat, Laurent; Slama, Borhane; Al Jijakli, Ahmad; Benramdane, Riad; Chaleteix, Carinne; Costello, Régis; Thyss, Antoine; Mathiot, Claire; Boyle, Eileen; Maloisel, Frédéric; Stoppa, Anne-Marie; Kolb, Brigitte; Michallet, Mauricette; Lamblin, Anne; Natta, Patrick; Facon, Thierry; Elalamy, Ismail; Fermand, Jean-Paul; Moreau, Philippe

    2013-10-01

    Immunomodulatory drugs (IMiDs) are associated with an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in multiple myeloma (MM) patients. We designed MELISSE, a multicentre prospective observational study, to evaluate VTE incidence and identify risk factors in IMiDs-treated MM. Our objective was to determine the real-life practice of VTE prophylaxis strategy. A total of 524 MM patients were included, and we planned to collect information at baseline, at four and at 12 months, on MM therapy, on VTE risk factors and management. VTE incidence was 7% (n=31), including 2.5% pulmonary embolism (PE) (n=11), similar at four or 12 months. VTE was observed at all risk assessment levels, although the increased risk assessment level correlated to a lower rate of VTE, maybe due to the implemented thromboprophylaxis strategy. VTE occurred in 7% on aspirin vs 3% on low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) prophylaxis, and none on vitamin K antagonists (VKA). New risk factors for VTE in IMiDs-treated MM were identified. In conclusion, VTE prophylaxis is compulsory in IMiDs-treated MM, based on individualised VTE risk assessment. Anticoagulation prophylaxis with LMWH should clearly be prioritised in MM patients with high VTE risk, along with VKA. Further prospective studies will identify most relevant VTE risk factors in IMiDs-treated MM to select accurately which MM patients should receive LMWH prophylaxis and for which duration to optimise VTE risk reduction.

  2. Patterns of Multiple Risk Exposures for Low Receptive Vocabulary Growth 4-8 Years in the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children.

    PubMed

    Christensen, Daniel; Taylor, Catherine L; Zubrick, Stephen R

    2017-01-01

    Risk exposures and predictions of child development outcomes typically estimate the independent effects of individual exposures. As a rule though, children are not exposed piecemeal to individual or single risks but, rather, they are exposed to clusters of risk. Many of these clusters of risks are better thought of as comprising a developmental "circumstance" with a substantial duration, over which period, additional risk exposures also accumulate. In this paper we examined the distribution of 16 single risk exposures for low language ability using latent class analysis across a sample of approximately 4000 children from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. The best fitting model identified six distinct classes. 46% of children were in a Developmentally Enabled group, 20% were in a group typified as Working Poor families, 10% of children were in group typified as Overwhelmed group, 9% of children were in a group defined by Child Developmental Delay, 8% of children were in a group defined by Low Human Capital, and 7% of children were in a group defined by Resource Poor non-English Speaking background families. These groups had quantitatively and qualitatively distinct patterns of risk factors and showed different onward trajectories of receptive vocabulary. Our results demonstrate a range of multiple risk profiles in a population-representative sample of Australian children and highlight the mix of risk factors faced by children. Children with distinct patterns of risk factors have different onward trajectories of receptive vocabulary development.

  3. Patterns of Multiple Risk Exposures for Low Receptive Vocabulary Growth 4-8 Years in the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, Catherine L.; Zubrick, Stephen R.

    2017-01-01

    Risk exposures and predictions of child development outcomes typically estimate the independent effects of individual exposures. As a rule though, children are not exposed piecemeal to individual or single risks but, rather, they are exposed to clusters of risk. Many of these clusters of risks are better thought of as comprising a developmental “circumstance” with a substantial duration, over which period, additional risk exposures also accumulate. In this paper we examined the distribution of 16 single risk exposures for low language ability using latent class analysis across a sample of approximately 4000 children from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. The best fitting model identified six distinct classes. 46%