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Sample records for adequate model fit

  1. Are Physical Education Majors Models for Fitness?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kamla, James; Snyder, Ben; Tanner, Lori; Wash, Pamela

    2012-01-01

    The National Association of Sport and Physical Education (NASPE) (2002) has taken a firm stance on the importance of adequate fitness levels of physical education teachers stating that they have the responsibility to model an active lifestyle and to promote fitness behaviors. Since the NASPE declaration, national initiatives like Let's Move…

  2. Arabidopsis: An Adequate Model for Dicot Root Systems?

    PubMed

    Zobel, Richard W

    2016-01-01

    The Arabidopsis root system is frequently considered to have only three classes of root: primary, lateral, and adventitious. Research with other plant species has suggested up to eight different developmental/functional classes of root for a given plant root system. If Arabidopsis has only three classes of root, it may not be an adequate model for eudicot plant root systems. Recent research, however, can be interpreted to suggest that pre-flowering Arabidopsis does have at least five (5) of these classes of root. This then suggests that Arabidopsis root research can be considered an adequate model for dicot plant root systems. PMID:26904040

  3. Beyond model fitting SEDs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferreras, Ignacio

    2012-08-01

    Extracting star formation histories from spectra is a process plagued by numerous degeneracies among the parameters that contribute to the definition of the underlying stellar populations. Traditional approaches to overcome such degeneracies involve carefully defined line strength or spectral fitting procedures. However, all these methods rely on comparisons with population synthesis models. This paper illustrates alternative approaches based on the statistical properties of the information that can be extracted from uniformly selected samples of observed spectra, without any prior reference to modelling. Such methods are more useful with large datasets, such as surveys, where the information from thousands of spectra can be exploited to classify galaxies. An illustrative example is presented on the classification of early-type galaxies with optical spectra from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey.

  4. Fitting PAC spectra with stochastic models: PolyPacFit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zacate, M. O.; Evenson, W. E.; Newhouse, R.; Collins, G. S.

    2010-04-01

    PolyPacFit is an advanced fitting program for time-differential perturbed angular correlation (PAC) spectroscopy. It incorporates stochastic models and provides robust options for customization of fits. Notable features of the program include platform independence and support for (1) fits to stochastic models of hyperfine interactions, (2) user-defined constraints among model parameters, (3) fits to multiple spectra simultaneously, and (4) any spin nuclear probe.

  5. Adequate peritoneal dialysis: theoretical model and patient treatment.

    PubMed

    Tast, C

    1998-01-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the relationship between adequate PD with sufficient weekly Kt/V (2.0) and Creatinine clearance (CCR) (60l) and necessary daily dialysate volume. This recommended parameter was the result of a recent multi-centre study (CANUSA). For this there were 40 patients in our hospital examined and compared in 1996, who carried out PD for at least 8 weeks and up to 6 years. These goals (CANUSA) are easily attainable in the early treatment of many individuals with a low body surface area (BSA). With higher BSA or missing RRF (Residual Renal Function) the daily dose of dialysis must be adjusted. We found it difficult to obtain the recommended parameters and tried to find a solution to this problem. The simplest method is to increase the volume or exchange rate. The most expensive method is to change from CAPD to APD with the possibility of higher volume or exchange rates. Selection of therapy must take into consideration: 1. patient preference, 2. body mass, 3. peritoneal transport rates, 4. ability to perform therapy, 5. cost of therapy and 6. risk of peritonitis. With this information in mind, an individual prescription can be formulated and matched to the appropriate modality of PD. PMID:10392062

  6. Fitting and interpreting occupancy models.

    PubMed

    Welsh, Alan H; Lindenmayer, David B; Donnelly, Christine F

    2013-01-01

    We show that occupancy models are more difficult to fit than is generally appreciated because the estimating equations often have multiple solutions, including boundary estimates which produce fitted probabilities of zero or one. The estimates are unstable when the data are sparse, making them difficult to interpret, and, even in ideal situations, highly variable. As a consequence, making accurate inference is difficult. When abundance varies over sites (which is the general rule in ecology because we expect spatial variance in abundance) and detection depends on abundance, the standard analysis suffers bias (attenuation in detection, biased estimates of occupancy and potentially finding misleading relationships between occupancy and other covariates), asymmetric sampling distributions, and slow convergence of the sampling distributions to normality. The key result of this paper is that the biases are of similar magnitude to those obtained when we ignore non-detection entirely. The fact that abundance is subject to detection error and hence is not directly observable, means that we cannot tell when bias is present (or, equivalently, how large it is) and we cannot adjust for it. This implies that we cannot tell which fit is better: the fit from the occupancy model or the fit ignoring the possibility of detection error. Therefore trying to adjust occupancy models for non-detection can be as misleading as ignoring non-detection completely. Ignoring non-detection can actually be better than trying to adjust for it. PMID:23326323

  7. Arabidopsis: an adequate model for dicot root systems?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In the search for answers to pressing root developmental genetic issues, plant science has turned to a small genome dicot plant (Arabidopsis) to be used as a model to study and use to develop hypotheses for testing other species. Through out the published research only three classes of root are des...

  8. Total force fitness: the military family fitness model.

    PubMed

    Bowles, Stephen V; Pollock, Liz Davenport; Moore, Monique; Wadsworth, Shelley MacDermid; Cato, Colanda; Dekle, Judith Ward; Meyer, Sonia Wei; Shriver, Amber; Mueller, Bill; Stephens, Mark; Seidler, Dustin A; Sheldon, Joseph; Picano, James; Finch, Wanda; Morales, Ricardo; Blochberger, Sean; Kleiman, Matthew E; Thompson, Daniel; Bates, Mark J

    2015-03-01

    The military lifestyle can create formidable challenges for military families. This article describes the Military Family Fitness Model (MFFM), a comprehensive model aimed at enhancing family fitness and resilience across the life span. This model is intended for use by Service members, their families, leaders, and health care providers but also has broader applications for all families. The MFFM has three core components: (1) family demands, (2) resources (including individual resources, family resources, and external resources), and (3) family outcomes (including related metrics). The MFFM proposes that resources from the individual, family, and external areas promote fitness, bolster resilience, and foster well-being for the family. The MFFM highlights each resource level for the purpose of improving family fitness and resilience over time. The MFFM both builds on existing family strengths and encourages the development of new family strengths through resource-acquiring behaviors. The purpose of this article is to (1) expand the military's Total Force Fitness (TFF) intent as it relates to families and (2) offer a family fitness model. This article will summarize relevant evidence, provide supportive theory, describe the model, and proffer metrics that support the dimensions of this model. PMID:25735013

  9. Measured, modeled, and causal conceptions of fitness

    PubMed Central

    Abrams, Marshall

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes partial answers to the following questions: in what senses can fitness differences plausibly be considered causes of evolution?What relationships are there between fitness concepts used in empirical research, modeling, and abstract theoretical proposals? How does the relevance of different fitness concepts depend on research questions and methodological constraints? The paper develops a novel taxonomy of fitness concepts, beginning with type fitness (a property of a genotype or phenotype), token fitness (a property of a particular individual), and purely mathematical fitness. Type fitness includes statistical type fitness, which can be measured from population data, and parametric type fitness, which is an underlying property estimated by statistical type fitnesses. Token fitness includes measurable token fitness, which can be measured on an individual, and tendential token fitness, which is assumed to be an underlying property of the individual in its environmental circumstances. Some of the paper's conclusions can be outlined as follows: claims that fitness differences do not cause evolution are reasonable when fitness is treated as statistical type fitness, measurable token fitness, or purely mathematical fitness. Some of the ways in which statistical methods are used in population genetics suggest that what natural selection involves are differences in parametric type fitnesses. Further, it's reasonable to think that differences in parametric type fitness can cause evolution. Tendential token fitnesses, however, are not themselves sufficient for natural selection. Though parametric type fitnesses are typically not directly measurable, they can be modeled with purely mathematical fitnesses and estimated by statistical type fitnesses, which in turn are defined in terms of measurable token fitnesses. The paper clarifies the ways in which fitnesses depend on pragmatic choices made by researchers. PMID:23112804

  10. Coaches as Fitness Role Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nichols, Randall; Zillifro, Traci D.; Nichols, Ronald; Hull, Ethan E.

    2012-01-01

    The lack of physical activity, low fitness levels, and elevated obesity rates as high as 32% of today's youth are well documented. Many strategies and grants have been developed at the national, regional, and local levels to help counteract these current trends. Strategies have been developed and implemented for schools, households (parents), and…

  11. Sensitivity of Fit Indices to Model Misspecification and Model Types

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fan, Xitao; Sivo, Stephen A.

    2007-01-01

    The search for cut-off criteria of fit indices for model fit evaluation (e.g., Hu & Bentler, 1999) assumes that these fit indices are sensitive to model misspecification, but not to different types of models. If fit indices were sensitive to different types of models that are misspecified to the same degree, it would be very difficult to establish…

  12. A Model for Touch Technique and Computation of Adequate Cane Length.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Plain-Switzer, Karen

    1993-01-01

    This article presents a model for the motion of a long-cane executing the touch technique and presents formulas for the projected length of a cane adequate to protect an individual with blindness against wall-type and pole-type hazards. The paper concludes that the long-cane should reach from the floor to the user's armpit. (JDD)

  13. Evaluation of Model Fit in Cognitive Diagnosis Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hu, Jinxiang; Miller, M. David; Huggins-Manley, Anne Corinne; Chen, Yi-Hsin

    2016-01-01

    Cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) estimate student ability profiles using latent attributes. Model fit to the data needs to be ascertained in order to determine whether inferences from CDMs are valid. This study investigated the usefulness of some popular model fit statistics to detect CDM fit including relative fit indices (AIC, BIC, and CAIC),…

  14. Evaluating Model Fit for Growth Curve Models: Integration of Fit Indices from SEM and MLM Frameworks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wu, Wei; West, Stephen G.; Taylor, Aaron B.

    2009-01-01

    Evaluating overall model fit for growth curve models involves 3 challenging issues. (a) Three types of longitudinal data with different implications for model fit may be distinguished: balanced on time with complete data, balanced on time with data missing at random, and unbalanced on time. (b) Traditional work on fit from the structural equation…

  15. Fitting Neuron Models to Spike Trains

    PubMed Central

    Rossant, Cyrille; Goodman, Dan F. M.; Fontaine, Bertrand; Platkiewicz, Jonathan; Magnusson, Anna K.; Brette, Romain

    2011-01-01

    Computational modeling is increasingly used to understand the function of neural circuits in systems neuroscience. These studies require models of individual neurons with realistic input–output properties. Recently, it was found that spiking models can accurately predict the precisely timed spike trains produced by cortical neurons in response to somatically injected currents, if properly fitted. This requires fitting techniques that are efficient and flexible enough to easily test different candidate models. We present a generic solution, based on the Brian simulator (a neural network simulator in Python), which allows the user to define and fit arbitrary neuron models to electrophysiological recordings. It relies on vectorization and parallel computing techniques to achieve efficiency. We demonstrate its use on neural recordings in the barrel cortex and in the auditory brainstem, and confirm that simple adaptive spiking models can accurately predict the response of cortical neurons. Finally, we show how a complex multicompartmental model can be reduced to a simple effective spiking model. PMID:21415925

  16. Students' Models of Curve Fitting: A Models and Modeling Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gupta, Shweta

    2010-01-01

    The Models and Modeling Perspectives (MMP) has evolved out of research that began 26 years ago. MMP researchers use Model Eliciting Activities (MEAs) to elicit students' mental models. In this study MMP was used as the conceptual framework to investigate the nature of students' models of curve fitting in a problem-solving environment consisting of…

  17. Fitness

    MedlinePlus

    ... gov home http://www.girlshealth.gov/ Home Fitness Fitness Want to look and feel your best? Physical ... are? Check out this info: What is physical fitness? top Physical fitness means you can do everyday ...

  18. A predictive fitness model for influenza

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Łuksza, Marta; Lässig, Michael

    2014-03-01

    The seasonal human influenza A/H3N2 virus undergoes rapid evolution, which produces significant year-to-year sequence turnover in the population of circulating strains. Adaptive mutations respond to human immune challenge and occur primarily in antigenic epitopes, the antibody-binding domains of the viral surface protein haemagglutinin. Here we develop a fitness model for haemagglutinin that predicts the evolution of the viral population from one year to the next. Two factors are shown to determine the fitness of a strain: adaptive epitope changes and deleterious mutations outside the epitopes. We infer both fitness components for the strains circulating in a given year, using population-genetic data of all previous strains. From fitness and frequency of each strain, we predict the frequency of its descendent strains in the following year. This fitness model maps the adaptive history of influenza A and suggests a principled method for vaccine selection. Our results call for a more comprehensive epidemiology of influenza and other fast-evolving pathogens that integrates antigenic phenotypes with other viral functions coupled by genetic linkage.

  19. Modeling and Fitting Exoplanet Transit Light Curves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Millholland, Sarah; Ruch, G. T.

    2013-01-01

    We present a numerical model along with an original fitting routine for the analysis of transiting extra-solar planet light curves. Our light curve model is unique in several ways from other available transit models, such as the analytic eclipse formulae of Mandel & Agol (2002) and Giménez (2006), the modified Eclipsing Binary Orbit Program (EBOP) model implemented in Southworth’s JKTEBOP code (Popper & Etzel 1981; Southworth et al. 2004), or the transit model developed as a part of the EXOFAST fitting suite (Eastman et al. in prep.). Our model employs Keplerian orbital dynamics about the system’s center of mass to properly account for stellar wobble and orbital eccentricity, uses a unique analytic solution derived from Kepler’s Second Law to calculate the projected distance between the centers of the star and planet, and calculates the effect of limb darkening using a simple technique that is different from the commonly used eclipse formulae. We have also devised a unique Monte Carlo style optimization routine for fitting the light curve model to observed transits. We demonstrate that, while the effect of stellar wobble on transit light curves is generally small, it becomes significant as the planet to stellar mass ratio increases and the semi-major axes of the orbits decrease. We also illustrate the appreciable effects of orbital ellipticity on the light curve and the necessity of accounting for its impacts for accurate modeling. We show that our simple limb darkening calculations are as accurate as the analytic equations of Mandel & Agol (2002). Although our Monte Carlo fitting algorithm is not as mathematically rigorous as the Markov Chain Monte Carlo based algorithms most often used to determine exoplanetary system parameters, we show that it is straightforward and returns reliable results. Finally, we show that analyses performed with our model and optimization routine compare favorably with exoplanet characterizations published by groups such as the

  20. Degeneracy and discreteness in cosmological model fitting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teng, Huan-Yu; Huang, Yuan; Zhang, Tong-Jie

    2016-03-01

    We explore the problems of degeneracy and discreteness in the standard cosmological model (ΛCDM). We use the Observational Hubble Data (OHD) and the type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) data to study this issue. In order to describe the discreteness in fitting of data, we define a factor G to test the influence from each single data point and analyze the goodness of G. Our results indicate that a higher absolute value of G shows a better capability of distinguishing models, which means the parameters are restricted into smaller confidence intervals with a larger figure of merit evaluation. Consequently, we claim that the factor G is an effective way of model differentiation when using different models to fit the observational data.

  1. Model Fit after Pairwise Maximum Likelihood

    PubMed Central

    Barendse, M. T.; Ligtvoet, R.; Timmerman, M. E.; Oort, F. J.

    2016-01-01

    Maximum likelihood factor analysis of discrete data within the structural equation modeling framework rests on the assumption that the observed discrete responses are manifestations of underlying continuous scores that are normally distributed. As maximizing the likelihood of multivariate response patterns is computationally very intensive, the sum of the log–likelihoods of the bivariate response patterns is maximized instead. Little is yet known about how to assess model fit when the analysis is based on such a pairwise maximum likelihood (PML) of two–way contingency tables. We propose new fit criteria for the PML method and conduct a simulation study to evaluate their performance in model selection. With large sample sizes (500 or more), PML performs as well the robust weighted least squares analysis of polychoric correlations. PMID:27148136

  2. Model Fit after Pairwise Maximum Likelihood.

    PubMed

    Barendse, M T; Ligtvoet, R; Timmerman, M E; Oort, F J

    2016-01-01

    Maximum likelihood factor analysis of discrete data within the structural equation modeling framework rests on the assumption that the observed discrete responses are manifestations of underlying continuous scores that are normally distributed. As maximizing the likelihood of multivariate response patterns is computationally very intensive, the sum of the log-likelihoods of the bivariate response patterns is maximized instead. Little is yet known about how to assess model fit when the analysis is based on such a pairwise maximum likelihood (PML) of two-way contingency tables. We propose new fit criteria for the PML method and conduct a simulation study to evaluate their performance in model selection. With large sample sizes (500 or more), PML performs as well the robust weighted least squares analysis of polychoric correlations. PMID:27148136

  3. Model-based estimation of individual fitness

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Cooch, E.G.; Cam, E.

    2002-01-01

    Fitness is the currency of natural selection, a measure of the propagation rate of genotypes into future generations. Its various definitions have the common feature that they are functions of survival and fertility rates. At the individual level, the operative level for natural selection, these rates must be understood as latent features, genetically determined propensities existing at birth. This conception of rates requires that individual fitness be defined and estimated by consideration of the individual in a modelled relation to a group of similar individuals; the only alternative is to consider a sample of size one, unless a clone of identical individuals is available. We present hierarchical models describing individual heterogeneity in survival and fertility rates and allowing for associations between these rates at the individual level. We apply these models to an analysis of life histories of Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) observed at several colonies on the Brittany coast of France. We compare Bayesian estimation of the population distribution of individual fitness with estimation based on treating individual life histories in isolation, as samples of size one (e.g. McGraw and Caswell, 1996).

  4. Model-based estimation of individual fitness

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Cooch, E.G.; Cam, E.

    2002-01-01

    Fitness is the currency of natural selection, a measure of the propagation rate of genotypes into future generations. Its various definitions have the common feature that they are functions of survival and fertility rates. At the individual level, the operative level for natural selection, these rates must be understood as latent features, genetically determined propensities existing at birth. This conception of rates requires that individual fitness be defined and estimated by consideration of the individual in a modelled relation to a group of similar individuals; the only alternative is to consider a sample of size one, unless a clone of identical individuals is available. We present hierarchical models describing individual heterogeneity in survival and fertility rates and allowing for associations between these rates at the individual level. We apply these models to an analysis of life histories of Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla ) observed at several colonies on the Brittany coast of France. We compare Bayesian estimation of the population distribution of individual fitness with estimation based on treating individual life histories in isolation, as samples of size one (e.g. McGraw & Caswell, 1996).

  5. Seeing Perfectly Fitting Factor Models That Are Causally Misspecified: Understanding That Close-Fitting Models Can Be Worse

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hayduk, Leslie

    2014-01-01

    Researchers using factor analysis tend to dismiss the significant ill fit of factor models by presuming that if their factor model is close-to-fitting, it is probably close to being properly causally specified. Close fit may indeed result from a model being close to properly causally specified, but close-fitting factor models can also be seriously…

  6. An Investigation of Goodness of Model Data Fit

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Onder, Ismail

    2007-01-01

    IRT models' advantages can only be realized when the model fits the data set of interest. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate which IRT model will provide the best fit to the data obtained from OZDEBYR OSS 2004 D-II Exam Science Test. In goodness-of-fit analysis, first the model assumptions and then the expected model features were checked.…

  7. An Investigation of Item Fit Statistics for Mixed IRT Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chon, Kyong Hee

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate procedures for assessing model fit of IRT models for mixed format data. In this study, various IRT model combinations were fitted to data containing both dichotomous and polytomous item responses, and the suitability of the chosen model mixtures was evaluated based on a number of model fit procedures.…

  8. Fitting and Modeling of AXAF Data with the ASC Fitting Application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doe, S.; Ljungberg, M.; Siemiginowska, A.; Joye, W.

    The AXAF mission will provide X-ray data with unprecedented spatial and spectral resolution. Because of the high quality of these data, the AXAF Science Center will provide a new data analysis system--including a new fitting application. Our intent is to enable users to do fitting that is too awkward with, or beyond, the scope of existing astronomical fitting software. Our main goals are: 1) to take advantage of the full capabilities of the AXAF, we intend to provide a more sophisticated modeling capability (i.e., models that are $f(x,y,E,t)$, models to simulate the response of AXAF instruments, and models that enable ``joint-mode'' fitting, i.e., combined spatial-spectral or spectral-temporal fitting); and 2) to provide users with a wide variety of models, optimization methods, and fit statistics. In this paper, we discuss the use of an object-oriented approach in our implementation, the current features of the fitting application, and the features scheduled to be added in the coming year of development. Current features include: an interactive, command-line interface; a modeling language, which allows users to build models from arithmetic combinations of base functions; a suite of optimization and fit statistics; the ability to perform fits to multiple data sets simultaneously; and, an interface with SM and SAOtng to plot or image data, models, and/or residuals from a fit. We currently provide a modeling capability in one or two dimensions, and have recently made an effort to perform spectral fitting in a manner similar to XSPEC. We also allow users to dynamically link the fitting application to their own algorithms. Our goals for the coming year include incorporating the XSPEC model library as a subset of models available in the application, enabling ``joint-mode'' analysis and adding support for new algorithms.

  9. Evaluating Latent Growth Curve Models Using Individual Fit Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coffman, Donna L.; Millsap, Roger E.

    2006-01-01

    The usefulness of assessing individual fit in latent growth curve models was examined. The study used simulated data based on an unconditional and a conditional latent growth curve model with a linear component and a small quadratic component and a linear model was fit to the data. Then the overall fit of linear and quadratic models to these data…

  10. Goodness-of-Fit Assessment of Item Response Theory Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto

    2013-01-01

    The article provides an overview of goodness-of-fit assessment methods for item response theory (IRT) models. It is now possible to obtain accurate "p"-values of the overall fit of the model if bivariate information statistics are used. Several alternative approaches are described. As the validity of inferences drawn on the fitted model…

  11. Effectiveness of the Sport Education Fitness Model on Fitness Levels, Knowledge, and Physical Activity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pritchard, Tony; Hansen, Andrew; Scarboro, Shot; Melnic, Irina

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate changes in fitness levels, content knowledge, physical activity levels, and participants' perceptions following the implementation of the sport education fitness model (SEFM) at a high school. Thirty-two high school students participated in 20 lessons using the SEFM. Aerobic capacity, muscular…

  12. Epistasis and the Structure of Fitness Landscapes: Are Experimental Fitness Landscapes Compatible with Fisher's Geometric Model?

    PubMed

    Blanquart, François; Bataillon, Thomas

    2016-06-01

    The fitness landscape defines the relationship between genotypes and fitness in a given environment and underlies fundamental quantities such as the distribution of selection coefficient and the magnitude and type of epistasis. A better understanding of variation in landscape structure across species and environments is thus necessary to understand and predict how populations will adapt. An increasing number of experiments investigate the properties of fitness landscapes by identifying mutations, constructing genotypes with combinations of these mutations, and measuring the fitness of these genotypes. Yet these empirical landscapes represent a very small sample of the vast space of all possible genotypes, and this sample is often biased by the protocol used to identify mutations. Here we develop a rigorous statistical framework based on Approximate Bayesian Computation to address these concerns and use this flexible framework to fit a broad class of phenotypic fitness models (including Fisher's model) to 26 empirical landscapes representing nine diverse biological systems. Despite uncertainty owing to the small size of most published empirical landscapes, the inferred landscapes have similar structure in similar biological systems. Surprisingly, goodness-of-fit tests reveal that this class of phenotypic models, which has been successful so far in interpreting experimental data, is a plausible in only three of nine biological systems. More precisely, although Fisher's model was able to explain several statistical properties of the landscapes-including the mean and SD of selection and epistasis coefficients-it was often unable to explain the full structure of fitness landscapes. PMID:27052568

  13. Hyper-Fit: Fitting Linear Models to Multidimensional Data with Multivariate Gaussian Uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robotham, A. S. G.; Obreschkow, D.

    2015-09-01

    Astronomical data is often uncertain with errors that are heteroscedastic (different for each data point) and covariant between different dimensions. Assuming that a set of D-dimensional data points can be described by a (D - 1)-dimensional plane with intrinsic scatter, we derive the general likelihood function to be maximised to recover the best fitting model. Alongside the mathematical description, we also release the hyper-fit package for the R statistical language (http://github.com/asgr/hyper.fit) and a user-friendly web interface for online fitting (http://hyperfit.icrar.org). The hyper-fit package offers access to a large number of fitting routines, includes visualisation tools, and is fully documented in an extensive user manual. Most of the hyper-fit functionality is accessible via the web interface. In this paper, we include applications to toy examples and to real astronomical data from the literature: the mass-size, Tully-Fisher, Fundamental Plane, and mass-spin-morphology relations. In most cases, the hyper-fit solutions are in good agreement with published values, but uncover more information regarding the fitted model.

  14. Adopting adequate leaching requirement for practical response models of basil to salinity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babazadeh, Hossein; Tabrizi, Mahdi Sarai; Darvishi, Hossein Hassanpour

    2016-07-01

    Several mathematical models are being used for assessing plant response to salinity of the root zone. Objectives of this study included quantifying the yield salinity threshold value of basil plants to irrigation water salinity and investigating the possibilities of using irrigation water salinity instead of saturated extract salinity in the available mathematical models for estimating yield. To achieve the above objectives, an extensive greenhouse experiment was conducted with 13 irrigation water salinity levels, namely 1.175 dS m-1 (control treatment) and 1.8 to 10 dS m-1. The result indicated that, among these models, the modified discount model (one of the most famous root water uptake model which is based on statistics) produced more accurate results in simulating the basil yield reduction function using irrigation water salinities. Overall the statistical model of Steppuhn et al. on the modified discount model and the math-empirical model of van Genuchten and Hoffman provided the best results. In general, all of the statistical models produced very similar results and their results were better than math-empirical models. It was also concluded that if enough leaching was present, there was no significant difference between the soil salinity saturated extract models and the models using irrigation water salinity.

  15. Curve fitting methods for solar radiation data modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Karim, Samsul Ariffin Abdul E-mail: balbir@petronas.com.my; Singh, Balbir Singh Mahinder E-mail: balbir@petronas.com.my

    2014-10-24

    This paper studies the use of several type of curve fitting method to smooth the global solar radiation data. After the data have been fitted by using curve fitting method, the mathematical model of global solar radiation will be developed. The error measurement was calculated by using goodness-fit statistics such as root mean square error (RMSE) and the value of R{sup 2}. The best fitting methods will be used as a starting point for the construction of mathematical modeling of solar radiation received in Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS (UTP) Malaysia. Numerical results indicated that Gaussian fitting and sine fitting (both with two terms) gives better results as compare with the other fitting methods.

  16. Curve fitting methods for solar radiation data modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karim, Samsul Ariffin Abdul; Singh, Balbir Singh Mahinder

    2014-10-01

    This paper studies the use of several type of curve fitting method to smooth the global solar radiation data. After the data have been fitted by using curve fitting method, the mathematical model of global solar radiation will be developed. The error measurement was calculated by using goodness-fit statistics such as root mean square error (RMSE) and the value of R2. The best fitting methods will be used as a starting point for the construction of mathematical modeling of solar radiation received in Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS (UTP) Malaysia. Numerical results indicated that Gaussian fitting and sine fitting (both with two terms) gives better results as compare with the other fitting methods.

  17. Deviance statistics in model fit and selection in ROC studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lei, Tianhu; Bae, K. Ty

    2013-03-01

    A general non-linear regression model-based Bayesian inference approach is used in our ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) study. In the sampling of posterior distribution, two prior models - continuous Gaussian and discrete categorical - are used for the scale parameter. How to judge Goodness-of-Fit (GOF) of each model and how to criticize these two models, Deviance statistics and Deviance information criterion (DIC) are adopted to address these problems. Model fit and model selection focus on the adequacy of models. Judging model adequacy is essentially measuring agreement of model and observations. Deviance statistics and DIC provide overall measures on model fit and selection. In order to investigate model fit at each category of observations, we find that the cumulative, exponential contributions from individual observations to Deviance statistics are good estimates of FPF (false positive fraction) and TPF (true positive fraction) on which the ROC curve is based. This finding further leads to a new measure for model fit, called FPF-TPF distance, which is an Euclidean distance defined on FPF-TPF space. It combines both local and global fitting. Deviance statistics and FPFTPF distance are shown to be consistent and in good agreement. Theoretical derivation and numerical simulations for this new method for model fit and model selection of ROC data analysis are included. Keywords: General non-linear regression model, Bayesian Inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, Goodness-of-Fit (GOF), Model selection, Deviance statistics, Deviance information criterion (DIC), Continuous conjugate prior, Discrete categorical prior. ∗

  18. On the Fitting of Non-Linear, Empirical Functions for the Fitting of Model Crater Ages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weaver, B. P.; Hilbe, J. M.; Robbins, S. J.; Plesko, C. S.; Riggs, J. D.

    2015-05-01

    Fitting model crater production functions to observed crater data is considered an "art" by many, and there is no standard in the field for how best to do it. We will discuss mathematical techniques' pros and cons and make recommendations.

  19. Anatomical features for the adequate choice of experimental animal models in biomedicine: I. Fishes.

    PubMed

    D'Angelo, Livia; Lossi, Laura; Merighi, Adalberto; de Girolamo, Paolo

    2016-05-01

    Fish constitute the oldest and most diverse class of vertebrates, and are widely used in basic research due to a number of advantages (e.g., rapid development ex-utero, large-scale genetic screening of human disease). They represent excellent experimental models for addressing studies on development, morphology, physiology and behavior function in other related species, as well as informative analysis of conservation and diversity. Although less complex, fish share many anatomical and physiological features with mammals, including humans, which make them an important complement to research in mammalian models. In this review we describe and compare the most relevant anatomical features of the most used teleostean species in research, to be taken into consideration when selecting an animal model: zebrafish (Danio rerio), medaka (Oryzias latypes), the turquoise killifish (Nothobranchius furzeri), and goldfish (Carassius auratus). Zebrafish and medaka are the mainstream models for genetic manipulability and studies on developmental biology; the turquoise killifish is an excellent model for aging research; goldfish has been largely employed for neuroendocrine studies. PMID:26925824

  20. Two strategies for fitting real data to Rasch polytomous models.

    PubMed

    Rojas Tejada, Antonio J; Gonzalez Gomez, Andres; Padilla Garcia, Jose L; Perez Melendez, Cristino

    2002-01-01

    A comparative study of the results provided by two strategies for fitting data to Latent Trait Theory Models has been performed. The first, called Total-Persons-Items (TPI), is structured in three phases: 1) assessment of item fit, 2) assessment of person fit; and finally, 3) overall fit of data to the models (items and persons). The second strategy, the Total-Items-Persons (TIP), changes the order of the phases: 1) assessment of person fit, 2) assessment of item fit and, 3) overall fit of data to the models. To verify the results of these two strategies, a set of 30 items, designed to measure religious attitude, was administered to a sample of 821 persons. The Latent Trait Theory Models used were the Partial Credit Model and the Rating Scale Model. The results underline an important difference between the two procedures: the TPI maximizes the number of persons with good fit and the TIP maximizes the number of items with good fit. Moreover, a procedure for controlling the sensitivity of fit to sample size is proposed. PMID:12011498

  1. Goodness of Model-Data Fit and Invariant Measurement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Engelhard, George, Jr.; Perkins, Aminah

    2013-01-01

    In this commentary, Englehard and Perkins remark that Maydeu-Olivares has presented a framework for evaluating the goodness of model-data fit for item response theory (IRT) models and correctly points out that overall goodness-of-fit evaluations of IRT models and data are not generally explored within most applications in educational and…

  2. A Comparison of Item Fit Statistics for Mixed IRT Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chon, Kyong Hee; Lee, Won-Chan; Dunbar, Stephen B.

    2010-01-01

    In this study we examined procedures for assessing model-data fit of item response theory (IRT) models for mixed format data. The model fit indices used in this study include PARSCALE's G[superscript 2], Orlando and Thissen's S-X[superscript 2] and S-G[superscript 2], and Stone's chi[superscript 2*] and G[superscript 2*]. To investigate the…

  3. A model for determining when an analysis contains sufficient detail to provide adequate NEPA coverage for a proposed action

    SciTech Connect

    Eccleston, C.H.

    1994-11-01

    Neither the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) nor its subsequent regulations provide substantive guidance for determining the Level of detail, discussion, and analysis that is sufficient to adequately cover a proposed action. Yet, decisionmakers are routinely confronted with the problem of making such determinations. Experience has shown that no two decisionmakers are Likely to completely agree on the amount of discussion that is sufficient to adequately cover a proposed action. one decisionmaker may determine that a certain Level of analysis is adequate, while another may conclude the exact opposite. Achieving a consensus within the agency and among the public can be problematic. Lacking definitive guidance, decisionmakers and critics alike may point to a universe of potential factors as the basis for defending their claim that an action is or is not adequately covered. Experience indicates that assertions are often based on ambiguous opinions that can be neither proved nor disproved. Lack of definitive guidance slows the decisionmaking process and can result in project delays. Furthermore, it can also Lead to inconsistencies in decisionmaking, inappropriate Levels of NEPA documentation, and increased risk of a project being challenged for inadequate coverage. A more systematic and less subjective approach for making such determinations is obviously needed. A paradigm for reducing the degree of subjectivity inherent in such decisions is presented in the following paper. The model is specifically designed to expedite the decisionmaking process by providing a systematic approach for making these determination. In many cases, agencies may find that using this model can reduce the analysis and size of NEPA documents.

  4. Model-Free CUSUM Methods for Person Fit

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Armstrong, Ronald D.; Shi, Min

    2009-01-01

    This article demonstrates the use of a new class of model-free cumulative sum (CUSUM) statistics to detect person fit given the responses to a linear test. The fundamental statistic being accumulated is the likelihood ratio of two probabilities. The detection performance of this CUSUM scheme is compared to other model-free person-fit statistics…

  5. Sensitivity of Fit Indices to Misspecification in Growth Curve Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wu, Wei; West, Stephen G.

    2010-01-01

    This study investigated the sensitivity of fit indices to model misspecification in within-individual covariance structure, between-individual covariance structure, and marginal mean structure in growth curve models. Five commonly used fit indices were examined, including the likelihood ratio test statistic, root mean square error of…

  6. HDFITS: Porting the FITS data model to HDF5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Price, D. C.; Barsdell, B. R.; Greenhill, L. J.

    2015-09-01

    The FITS (Flexible Image Transport System) data format has been the de facto data format for astronomy-related data products since its inception in the late 1970s. While the FITS file format is widely supported, it lacks many of the features of more modern data serialization, such as the Hierarchical Data Format (HDF5). The HDF5 file format offers considerable advantages over FITS, such as improved I/O speed and compression, but has yet to gain widespread adoption within astronomy. One of the major holdbacks is that HDF5 is not well supported by data reduction software packages and image viewers. Here, we present a comparison of FITS and HDF5 as a format for storage of astronomy datasets. We show that the underlying data model of FITS can be ported to HDF5 in a straightforward manner, and that by doing so the advantages of the HDF5 file format can be leveraged immediately. In addition, we present a software tool, fits2hdf, for converting between FITS and a new 'HDFITS' format, where data are stored in HDF5 in a FITS-like manner. We show that HDFITS allows faster reading of data (up to 100x of FITS in some use cases), and improved compression (higher compression ratios and higher throughput). Finally, we show that by only changing the import lines in Python-based FITS utilities, HDFITS formatted data can be presented transparently as an in-memory FITS equivalent.

  7. Consequences of Fitting Nonidentified Latent Class Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abar, Beau; Loken, Eric

    2012-01-01

    Latent class models are becoming more popular in behavioral research. When models with a large number of latent classes relative to the number of manifest indicators are estimated, researchers must consider the possibility that the model is not identified. It is not enough to determine that the model has positive degrees of freedom. A well-known…

  8. Fitting Value-Added Models in R

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doran, Harold C.; Lockwood, J. R.

    2006-01-01

    Value-added models of student achievement have received widespread attention in light of the current test-based accountability movement. These models use longitudinal growth modeling techniques to identify effective schools or teachers based upon the results of changes in student achievement test scores. Given their increasing popularity, this…

  9. Two Strategies for Fitting Real Data to Rasch Polytomous Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rojas Tejada, Antonio J.; Gonzalez Gomez, Andres; Padilla Garcia, Jose L.; Perez Melendez, Cristino

    2002-01-01

    Studied the results provided by two strategies for fitting data to Latent Trait Theory models, Total-Persons-Items (TPI) and Total-Items-Persons (TIP). To assess these strategies, 30 items measuring religious attitudes were administered to 821 persons. Results show that TPI maximizes the number of persons with good fit, and TIP maximizes the…

  10. Evaluating Item Fit for Multidimensional Item Response Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Bo; Stone, Clement A.

    2008-01-01

    This research examines the utility of the s-x[superscript 2] statistic proposed by Orlando and Thissen (2000) in evaluating item fit for multidimensional item response models. Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to investigate both the Type I error and statistical power of this fit statistic in analyzing two kinds of multidimensional test…

  11. How Good Are Statistical Models at Approximating Complex Fitness Landscapes?

    PubMed

    du Plessis, Louis; Leventhal, Gabriel E; Bonhoeffer, Sebastian

    2016-09-01

    Fitness landscapes determine the course of adaptation by constraining and shaping evolutionary trajectories. Knowledge of the structure of a fitness landscape can thus predict evolutionary outcomes. Empirical fitness landscapes, however, have so far only offered limited insight into real-world questions, as the high dimensionality of sequence spaces makes it impossible to exhaustively measure the fitness of all variants of biologically meaningful sequences. We must therefore revert to statistical descriptions of fitness landscapes that are based on a sparse sample of fitness measurements. It remains unclear, however, how much data are required for such statistical descriptions to be useful. Here, we assess the ability of regression models accounting for single and pairwise mutations to correctly approximate a complex quasi-empirical fitness landscape. We compare approximations based on various sampling regimes of an RNA landscape and find that the sampling regime strongly influences the quality of the regression. On the one hand it is generally impossible to generate sufficient samples to achieve a good approximation of the complete fitness landscape, and on the other hand systematic sampling schemes can only provide a good description of the immediate neighborhood of a sequence of interest. Nevertheless, we obtain a remarkably good and unbiased fit to the local landscape when using sequences from a population that has evolved under strong selection. Thus, current statistical methods can provide a good approximation to the landscape of naturally evolving populations. PMID:27189564

  12. How Good Are Statistical Models at Approximating Complex Fitness Landscapes?

    PubMed Central

    du Plessis, Louis; Leventhal, Gabriel E.; Bonhoeffer, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Fitness landscapes determine the course of adaptation by constraining and shaping evolutionary trajectories. Knowledge of the structure of a fitness landscape can thus predict evolutionary outcomes. Empirical fitness landscapes, however, have so far only offered limited insight into real-world questions, as the high dimensionality of sequence spaces makes it impossible to exhaustively measure the fitness of all variants of biologically meaningful sequences. We must therefore revert to statistical descriptions of fitness landscapes that are based on a sparse sample of fitness measurements. It remains unclear, however, how much data are required for such statistical descriptions to be useful. Here, we assess the ability of regression models accounting for single and pairwise mutations to correctly approximate a complex quasi-empirical fitness landscape. We compare approximations based on various sampling regimes of an RNA landscape and find that the sampling regime strongly influences the quality of the regression. On the one hand it is generally impossible to generate sufficient samples to achieve a good approximation of the complete fitness landscape, and on the other hand systematic sampling schemes can only provide a good description of the immediate neighborhood of a sequence of interest. Nevertheless, we obtain a remarkably good and unbiased fit to the local landscape when using sequences from a population that has evolved under strong selection. Thus, current statistical methods can provide a good approximation to the landscape of naturally evolving populations. PMID:27189564

  13. Fitting population models from field data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Emlen, J.M.; Freeman, D.C.; Kirchhoff, M.D.; Alados, C.L.; Escos, J.; Duda, J.J.

    2003-01-01

    The application of population and community ecology to solving real-world problems requires population and community dynamics models that reflect the myriad patterns of interaction among organisms and between the biotic and physical environments. Appropriate models are not hard to construct, but the experimental manipulations needed to evaluate their defining coefficients are often both time consuming and costly, and sometimes environmentally destructive, as well. In this paper we present an empirical approach for finding the coefficients of broadly inclusive models without the need for environmental manipulation, demonstrate the approach with both an animal and a plant example, and suggest possible applications. Software has been developed, and is available from the senior author, with a manual describing both field and analytic procedures.

  14. MAPCLUS: A Mathematical Programming Approach to Fitting the ADCLUS Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arabie, Phipps

    1980-01-01

    A new computing algorithm, MAPCLUS (Mathematical Programming Clustering), for fitting the Shephard-Arabie ADCLUS (Additive Clustering) model is presented. Details and benefits of the algorithm are discussed. (Author/JKS)

  15. A New Tradition To Fit the Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Darnell, D. Roe; Rosenthal, Donna McCrohan

    2001-01-01

    Discusses Cerro Coso Community College in Ridgecrest (California), where 80-85 of all local jobs are with one employer, the China Lake Naval Air Weapons Station (NAWS). States that massive layoffs at NAWS inspired creative ways of rethinking the community college model at Cerro Coso, such as creating the nation's first computer graphics imagery…

  16. Source Localization with Acoustic Sensor Arrays Using Generative Model Based Fitting with Sparse Constraints

    PubMed Central

    Velasco, Jose; Pizarro, Daniel; Macias-Guarasa, Javier

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a novel approach for indoor acoustic source localization using sensor arrays. The proposed solution starts by defining a generative model, designed to explain the acoustic power maps obtained by Steered Response Power (SRP) strategies. An optimization approach is then proposed to fit the model to real input SRP data and estimate the position of the acoustic source. Adequately fitting the model to real SRP data, where noise and other unmodelled effects distort the ideal signal, is the core contribution of the paper. Two basic strategies in the optimization are proposed. First, sparse constraints in the parameters of the model are included, enforcing the number of simultaneous active sources to be limited. Second, subspace analysis is used to filter out portions of the input signal that cannot be explained by the model. Experimental results on a realistic speech database show statistically significant localization error reductions of up to 30% when compared with the SRP-PHAT strategies. PMID:23202021

  17. Fitting ARMA Time Series by Structural Equation Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van Buuren, Stef

    1997-01-01

    This paper outlines how the stationary ARMA (p,q) model (G. Box and G. Jenkins, 1976) can be specified as a structural equation model. Maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters in the ARMA model can be obtained by software for fitting structural equation models. The method is applied to three problem types. (SLD)

  18. Relative and Absolute Fit Evaluation in Cognitive Diagnosis Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Jinsong; de la Torre, Jimmy; Zhang, Zao

    2013-01-01

    As with any psychometric models, the validity of inferences from cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) determines the extent to which these models can be useful. For inferences from CDMs to be valid, it is crucial that the fit of the model to the data is ascertained. Based on a simulation study, this study investigated the sensitivity of various fit…

  19. Theoretic Fit and Empirical Fit: The Performance of Maximum Likelihood versus Generalized Least Squares Estimation in Structural Equation Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Olsson, Ulf Henning; Troye, Sigurd Villads; Howell, Roy D.

    1999-01-01

    Used simulation to compare the ability of maximum likelihood (ML) and generalized least-squares (GLS) estimation to provide theoretic fit in models that are parsimonious representations of a true model. The better empirical fit obtained for GLS, compared with ML, was obtained at the cost of lower theoretic fit. (Author/SLD)

  20. Asteroseismic model fitting by comparing ɛnℓ values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roxburgh, Ian W.

    2016-01-01

    We present an asteroseismic model fitting algorithm based on comparing model and observed ɛℓ(ν) values defined in terms of frequencies by νnℓ = Δ [ n + ℓ/ 2 + ɛℓ(νnℓ) ] where Δ is an average large separation. We show that if two stellar models have the same interior structure but different outer layers then the difference between their ɛℓ(ν) values, interpolated to the same frequencies, collapses to a function only of frequency, independent of angular degree ℓ. The algorithm tests the goodness fit by comparing the difference in model and observed ɛ values after having subtracted off a best fit ℓ independent function of frequency ℱ(ν), and only requires interpolation in model values and not in observed values so the errors on the observed values are uncorrelated; it is independent of the n values assigned to the radial ordering of the frequencies and does not require the calculation of inner phase shifts of the model. We contrast this to a proposed direct frequency matching technique which minimises the difference between observed and model frequencies after having subtracted off an ℓ independent fit to these differences. We show this technique is flawed in principle, that all models with the same dimensionless structure but any mass and radius have the same quality of fit to an observed data set, and that it can give erroneous best fit models. We illustrate the epsilon matching technique by comparing stellar models and then apply it to data on HD 177153 (aka Perky). On comparing observations with a set of main sequence evolutionary models we find that models which satisfy constraints on the luminosity, radius, Δ, and on ɛ matching, have masses in the range 1.155 ± 0.035 M⊙ and ages in the range 4.486 ± 0.250 × 109 yr. Since the large separation and the radius are surface layer dependent we examine "pure surface layer independent" model fitting where the only constraints on the model fitting are on the luminosity and epsilon

  1. Involving regional expertise in nationwide modeling for adequate prediction of climate change effects on different demands for fresh water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Lange, W. J.

    2014-05-01

    Wim J. de Lange, Geert F. Prinsen, Jacco H. Hoogewoud, Ab A Veldhuizen, Joachim Hunink, Erik F.W. Ruijgh, Timo Kroon Nationwide modeling aims to produce a balanced distribution of climate change effects (e.g. harm on crops) and possible compensation (e.g. volume fresh water) based on consistent calculation. The present work is based on the Netherlands Hydrological Instrument (NHI, www.nhi.nu), which is a national, integrated, hydrological model that simulates distribution, flow and storage of all water in the surface water and groundwater systems. The instrument is developed to assess the impact on water use on land-surface (sprinkling crops, drinking water) and in surface water (navigation, cooling). The regional expertise involved in the development of NHI come from all parties involved in the use, production and management of water, such as waterboards, drinking water supply companies, provinces, ngo's, and so on. Adequate prediction implies that the model computes changes in the order of magnitude that is relevant to the effects. In scenarios related to drought, adequate prediction applies to the water demand and the hydrological effects during average, dry, very dry and extremely dry periods. The NHI acts as a part of the so-called Deltamodel (www.deltamodel.nl), which aims to predict effects and compensating measures of climate change both on safety against flooding and on water shortage during drought. To assess the effects, a limited number of well-defined scenarios is used within the Deltamodel. The effects on demand of fresh water consist of an increase of the demand e.g. for surface water level control to prevent dike burst, for flushing salt in ditches, for sprinkling of crops, for preserving wet nature and so on. Many of the effects are dealt with by regional and local parties. Therefore, these parties have large interest in the outcome of the scenario analyses. They are participating in the assessment of the NHI previous to the start of the analyses

  2. Involving regional expertise in nationwide modeling for adequate prediction of climate change effects on different demands for fresh water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Lange, Wim; Prinsen, Geert.; Hoogewoud, Jacco; Veldhuizen, Ab; Ruijgh, Erik; Kroon, Timo

    2013-04-01

    Nationwide modeling aims to produce a balanced distribution of climate change effects (e.g. harm on crops) and possible compensation (e.g. volume fresh water) based on consistent calculation. The present work is based on the Netherlands Hydrological Instrument (NHI, www.nhi.nu), which is a national, integrated, hydrological model that simulates distribution, flow and storage of all water in the surface water and groundwater systems. The instrument is developed to assess the impact on water use on land-surface (sprinkling crops, drinking water) and in surface water (navigation, cooling). The regional expertise involved in the development of NHI come from all parties involved in the use, production and management of water, such as waterboards, drinking water supply companies, provinces, ngo's, and so on. Adequate prediction implies that the model computes changes in the order of magnitude that is relevant to the effects. In scenarios related to drought, adequate prediction applies to the water demand and the hydrological effects during average, dry, very dry and extremely dry periods. The NHI acts as a part of the so-called Deltamodel (www.deltamodel.nl), which aims to predict effects and compensating measures of climate change both on safety against flooding and on water shortage during drought. To assess the effects, a limited number of well-defined scenarios is used within the Deltamodel. The effects on demand of fresh water consist of an increase of the demand e.g. for surface water level control to prevent dike burst, for flushing salt in ditches, for sprinkling of crops, for preserving wet nature and so on. Many of the effects are dealt with? by regional and local parties. Therefore, these parties have large interest in the outcome of the scenario analyses. They are participating in the assessment of the NHI previous to the start of the analyses. Regional expertise is welcomed in the calibration phase of NHI. It aims to reduce uncertainties by improving the

  3. Transit Model Fitting in the Kepler Science Operations Center Pipeline

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Jie; Burke, C. J.; Jenkins, J. M.; Quintana, E. V.; Rowe, J. F.; Seader, S. E.; Tenenbaum, P.; Twicken, J. D.

    2012-05-01

    We describe the algorithm and performance of the transit model fitting of the Kepler Science Operations Center (SOC) Pipeline. Light curves of long cadence targets are subjected to the Transiting Planet Search (TPS) component of the Kepler SOC Pipeline. Those targets for which a Threshold Crossing Event (TCE) is generated in the transit search are subsequently processed in the Data Validation (DV) component. The light curves may span one or more Kepler observing quarters, and data may not be available for any given target in all quarters. Transit model parameters are fitted in DV to transit-like signatures in the light curves of target stars with TCEs. The fitted parameters are used to generate a predicted light curve based on the transit model. The residual flux time series of the target star, with the predicted light curve removed, is fed back to TPS to search for additional TCEs. The iterative process of transit model fitting and transiting planet search continues until no TCE is generated from the residual flux time series or a planet candidate limit is reached. The transit model includes five parameters to be fitted: transit epoch time (i.e. central time of first transit), orbital period, impact parameter, ratio of planet radius to star radius and ratio of semi-major axis to star radius. The initial values of the fit parameters are determined from the TCE values provided by TPS. A limb darkening model is included in the transit model to generate the predicted light curve. The transit model fitting results are used in the diagnostic tests in DV, such as the centroid motion test, eclipsing binary discrimination tests, etc., which helps to validate planet candidates and identify false positive detections. Funding for the Kepler Mission has been provided by the NASA Science Mission Directorate.

  4. Modeling battery life through changes in voltage fit coefficients

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fox, D.; Mcdermott, P.

    1983-01-01

    A number of 12 ampere-hour cells, nickel cadmium, were cycled under various conditions of temperature and depth of discharge. Using this data, it was confirmed that a five parameter fit equation could be used to model the data within a few millivolts. Both charge and discharge curves can be fit with accuracies in the range of one or two millivolts. The fit coefficients when plotted versus cycles show definite trends and patterns which can be used in an operational sense to predict battery voltage as a function of temperature and depth of discharge.

  5. Akaike information criterion to select well-fit resist models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burbine, Andrew; Fryer, David; Sturtevant, John

    2015-03-01

    In the field of model design and selection, there is always a risk that a model is over-fit to the data used to train the model. A model is well suited when it describes the physical system and not the stochastic behavior of the particular data collected. K-fold cross validation is a method to check this potential over-fitting to the data by calibrating with k-number of folds in the data, typically between 4 and 10. Model training is a computationally expensive operation, however, and given a wide choice of candidate models, calibrating each one repeatedly becomes prohibitively time consuming. Akaike information criterion (AIC) is an information-theoretic approach to model selection based on the maximized log-likelihood for a given model that only needs a single calibration per model. It is used in this study to demonstrate model ranking and selection among compact resist modelforms that have various numbers and types of terms to describe photoresist behavior. It is shown that there is a good correspondence of AIC to K-fold cross validation in selecting the best modelform, and it is further shown that over-fitting is, in most cases, not indicated. In modelforms with more than 40 fitting parameters, the size of the calibration data set benefits from additional parameters, statistically validating the model complexity.

  6. Twitter classification model: the ABC of two million fitness tweets.

    PubMed

    Vickey, Theodore A; Ginis, Kathleen Martin; Dabrowski, Maciej

    2013-09-01

    The purpose of this project was to design and test data collection and management tools that can be used to study the use of mobile fitness applications and social networking within the context of physical activity. This project was conducted over a 6-month period and involved collecting publically shared Twitter data from five mobile fitness apps (Nike+, RunKeeper, MyFitnessPal, Endomondo, and dailymile). During that time, over 2.8 million tweets were collected, processed, and categorized using an online tweet collection application and a customized JavaScript. Using the grounded theory, a classification model was developed to categorize and understand the types of information being shared by application users. Our data show that by tracking mobile fitness app hashtags, a wealth of information can be gathered to include but not limited to daily use patterns, exercise frequency, location-based workouts, and overall workout sentiment. PMID:24073182

  7. Statistics in asteroseismology: Evaluating confidence in stellar model fits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, Erik Stewart

    We evaluate techniques presently used to match slates of stellar evolution models to asteroseismic observations by using numeric simulations of the model fits with randomly generated numbers. Measuring the quality of the fit between a simulated model and the star by a raw chi2 shows how well a reported model fit to a given star compares to a distribution of random model fits to the same star. The distribution of chi2 between "models" and simulated pulsations exhibits the behavior of a log-normal distribution, which suggests a link between the distribution and an analytic solution. Since the shape of the distribution strongly depends on the peculiar distribution of modes within the simulations, there appears to be no universal analytic quality-of-fit criterion, so evaluating seismic model fits must be done on a case--by--case basis. We also perform numeric simulations to determine the validity of spacings between pulsations by comparing the spacing between the observed modes of a given star to those between 106 sets of random numbers using the Q parameter of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The observed periods in GD 358 and PG 1159--035 outperform these numeric simulations and validate their perceived spacings, while there is little support for spacings in PG 1219+534 or PG 0014+067. The best period spacing in BPM 37098 is marginally significant. The observed frequencies of eta Bootis outstrip random sets with an equal number of modes, but the modes are selectively chosen by the investigators from over 70 detected periodicities. When choosing the random data from sets of 70 values, the observed modes' spacings are reproducible by at least 2% of the random sets. Comparing asteroseismic data to random numbers statistically gauge the prominence of any possible spacing which removes another element of bias from asteroseismic analysis.

  8. A goodness-of-fit test for occupancy models with correlated within-season revisits

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wright, Wilson; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Rodhouse, Thomas J.

    2016-01-01

    Occupancy modeling is important for exploring species distribution patterns and for conservation monitoring. Within this framework, explicit attention is given to species detection probabilities estimated from replicate surveys to sample units. A central assumption is that replicate surveys are independent Bernoulli trials, but this assumption becomes untenable when ecologists serially deploy remote cameras and acoustic recording devices over days and weeks to survey rare and elusive animals. Proposed solutions involve modifying the detection-level component of the model (e.g., first-order Markov covariate). Evaluating whether a model sufficiently accounts for correlation is imperative, but clear guidance for practitioners is lacking. Currently, an omnibus goodnessof- fit test using a chi-square discrepancy measure on unique detection histories is available for occupancy models (MacKenzie and Bailey, Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, 9, 2004, 300; hereafter, MacKenzie– Bailey test). We propose a join count summary measure adapted from spatial statistics to directly assess correlation after fitting a model. We motivate our work with a dataset of multinight bat call recordings from a pilot study for the North American Bat Monitoring Program. We found in simulations that our join count test was more reliable than the MacKenzie–Bailey test for detecting inadequacy of a model that assumed independence, particularly when serial correlation was low to moderate. A model that included a Markov-structured detection-level covariate produced unbiased occupancy estimates except in the presence of strong serial correlation and a revisit design consisting only of temporal replicates. When applied to two common bat species, our approach illustrates that sophisticated models do not guarantee adequate fit to real data, underscoring the importance of model assessment. Our join count test provides a widely applicable goodness-of-fit test and

  9. Eigen model with general fitness functions and degradation rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Chin-Kun; Saakian, David B.

    2006-03-01

    We present an exact solution of Eigen's quasispecies model with a general degradation rate and fitness functions, including a square root decrease of fitness with increasing Hamming distance from the wild type. The found behavior of the model with a degradation rate is analogous to a viral quasi-species under attack by the immune system of the host. Our exact solutions also revise the known results of neutral networks in quasispecies theory. To explain the existence of mutants with large Hamming distances from the wild type, we propose three different modifications of the Eigen model: mutation landscape, multiple adjacent mutations, and frequency-dependent fitness in which the steady state solution shows a multi-center behavior.

  10. Advanced material modelling in numerical simulation of primary acetabular press-fit cup stability.

    PubMed

    Souffrant, R; Zietz, C; Fritsche, A; Kluess, D; Mittelmeier, W; Bader, R

    2012-01-01

    Primary stability of artificial acetabular cups, used for total hip arthroplasty, is required for the subsequent osteointegration and good long-term clinical results of the implant. Although closed-cell polymer foams represent an adequate bone substitute in experimental studies investigating primary stability, correct numerical modelling of this material depends on the parameter selection. Material parameters necessary for crushable foam plasticity behaviour were originated from numerical simulations matched with experimental tests of the polymethacrylimide raw material. Experimental primary stability tests of acetabular press-fit cups consisting of static shell assembly with consecutively pull-out and lever-out testing were subsequently simulated using finite element analysis. Identified and optimised parameters allowed the accurate numerical reproduction of the raw material tests. Correlation between experimental tests and the numerical simulation of primary implant stability depended on the value of interference fit. However, the validated material model provides the opportunity for subsequent parametric numerical studies. PMID:22817471

  11. Evolution in random fitness landscapes: the infinite sites model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Su-Chan; Krug, Joachim

    2008-04-01

    We consider the evolution of an asexually reproducing population in an uncorrelated random fitness landscape in the limit of infinite genome size, which implies that each mutation generates a new fitness value drawn from a probability distribution g(w). This is the finite population version of Kingman's house of cards model (Kingman 1978 J. Appl. Probab. 15 1). In contrast to Kingman's work, the focus here is on unbounded distributions g(w) which lead to an indefinite growth of the population fitness. The model is solved analytically in the limit of infinite population size N \\to \\infty and simulated numerically for finite N. When the genome-wide mutation probability U is small, the long-time behavior of the model reduces to a point process of fixation events, which is referred to as a diluted record process (DRP). The DRP is similar to the standard record process except that a new record candidate (a number that exceeds all previous entries in the sequence) is accepted only with a certain probability that depends on the values of the current record and the candidate. We develop a systematic analytic approximation scheme for the DRP. At finite U the fitness frequency distribution of the population decomposes into a stationary part due to mutations and a traveling wave component due to selection, which is shown to imply a reduction of the mean fitness by a factor of 1-U compared to the U \\to 0 limit.

  12. Time-domain fitting of battery electrochemical impedance models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alavi, S. M. M.; Birkl, C. R.; Howey, D. A.

    2015-08-01

    Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) is an effective technique for diagnosing the behaviour of electrochemical devices such as batteries and fuel cells, usually by fitting data to an equivalent circuit model (ECM). The common approach in the laboratory is to measure the impedance spectrum of a cell in the frequency domain using a single sine sweep signal, then fit the ECM parameters in the frequency domain. This paper focuses instead on estimation of the ECM parameters directly from time-domain data. This may be advantageous for parameter estimation in practical applications such as automotive systems including battery-powered vehicles, where the data may be heavily corrupted by noise. The proposed methodology is based on the simplified refined instrumental variable for continuous-time fractional systems method ('srivcf'), provided by the Crone toolbox [1,2], combined with gradient-based optimisation to estimate the order of the fractional term in the ECM. The approach was tested first on synthetic data and then on real data measured from a 26650 lithium-ion iron phosphate cell with low-cost equipment. The resulting Nyquist plots from the time-domain fitted models match the impedance spectrum closely (much more accurately than when a Randles model is assumed), and the fitted parameters as separately determined through a laboratory potentiostat with frequency domain fitting match to within 13%.

  13. AnnAGNPS model as a potential tool for seeking adequate agriculture land management in Navarre (Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chahor, Y.; Giménez, R.; Casalí, J.

    2012-04-01

    Nowadays agricultural activities face two important challenges. They must be efficient from an economic point of view but with low environment impacts (soil erosion risk, nutrient/pesticide contamination, greenhouse gases emissions, etc.). In this context, hydrological and erosion models appear as remarkable tools when looking for the best management practices. AnnAGNPS (Annualized Agricultural Non Point Source Pollution) is a continuous simulation watershed-scale model that estimates yield and transit of surface water, sediment, nutrients, and pesticides through a watershed. This model has been successfully evaluated -in terms of annual runoff and sediment yield- in a small (around 200 ha) agricultural watershed located in central eastern part of Navarre (Spain), named Latxaga. The watershed is under a humid Sub-Mediterranean climate. It is cultivated almost entirely with winter cereals (wheat and barley) following conventional soil and tillage management practices. The remaining 15% of the watershed is covered by urban and shrub areas. The aim of this work is to evaluate in Latxga watershed the effect of potential and realistic changes in land use and management on surface runoff and sediment yield by using AnnAGNPS. Six years (2003 - 2008) of daily climate data were considered in the simulation. This dataset is the same used in the model evaluation previously made. Six different scenarios regarding soil use and management were considered: i) 60% cereals25% sunflower; ii) 60% cereals, 25% rapeseed; iii) 60% cereals, 25% legumes; iv) 60% cereals, 25% sunflower + rapeseed+ legumes, in equal parts; v) cereals, and alternatively different amount of shrubs (from 20% to 100% ); vi) only cereal but under different combinations of conventional tillage and no-tillage management. Overall, no significant differences in runoff generation were observed with the exception of scenario iii (in which legume is the main alternative crops), whit a slight increase in predicted

  14. On the accuracy and fitting of transversely isotropic material models.

    PubMed

    Feng, Yuan; Okamoto, Ruth J; Genin, Guy M; Bayly, Philip V

    2016-08-01

    Fiber reinforced structures are central to the form and function of biological tissues. Hyperelastic, transversely isotropic material models are used widely in the modeling and simulation of such tissues. Many of the most widely used models involve strain energy functions that include one or both pseudo-invariants (I4 or I5) to incorporate energy stored in the fibers. In a previous study we showed that both of these invariants must be included in the strain energy function if the material model is to reduce correctly to the well-known framework of transversely isotropic linear elasticity in the limit of small deformations. Even with such a model, fitting of parameters is a challenge. Here, by evaluating the relative roles of I4 and I5 in the responses to simple loadings, we identify loading scenarios in which previous models accounting for only one of these invariants can be expected to provide accurate estimation of material response, and identify mechanical tests that have special utility for fitting of transversely isotropic constitutive models. Results provide guidance for fitting of transversely isotropic constitutive models and for interpretation of the predictions of these models. PMID:27136091

  15. The Gold Medal Fitness Program: A Model for Teacher Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright, Jan; Konza, Deslea; Hearne, Doug; Okely, Tony

    2008-01-01

    Background: Following the 2000 Sydney Olympics, the NSW Premier, Mr Bob Carr, launched a school-based initiative in NSW government primary schools called the "Gold Medal Fitness Program" to encourage children to be fitter and more active. The Program was introduced into schools through a model of professional development, "Quality Teaching and…

  16. The conical fit approach to modeling ionospheric total electron content

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sparks, L.; Komjathy, A.; Mannucci, A. J.

    2002-01-01

    The Global Positioning System (GPS) can be used to measure the integrated electron density along raypaths between satellites and receivers. Such measurements may, in turn, be used to construct regional and global maps of the ionospheric total electron content (TEC). Maps are generated by fitting measurements to an assumed ionospheric model.

  17. Fuzzy Partition Models for Fitting a Set of Partitions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, A. D.; Vichi, M.

    2001-01-01

    Describes methods for fitting a fuzzy consensus partition to a set of partitions of the same set of objects. Describes and illustrates three models defining median partitions and compares these methods to an alternative approach to obtaining a consensus fuzzy partition. Discusses interesting differences in the results. (SLD)

  18. Multidimensional Rasch Model Information-Based Fit Index Accuracy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harrell-Williams, Leigh M.; Wolfe, Edward W.

    2013-01-01

    Most research on confirmatory factor analysis using information-based fit indices (Akaike information criterion [AIC], Bayesian information criteria [BIC], bias-corrected AIC [AICc], and consistent AIC [CAIC]) has used a structural equation modeling framework. Minimal research has been done concerning application of these indices to item response…

  19. Statistical assessment of model fit for synthetic aperture radar data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeVore, Michael D.; O'Sullivan, Joseph A.

    2001-08-01

    Parametric approaches to problems of inference from observed data often rely on assumed probabilistic models for the data which may be based on knowledge of the physics of the data acquisition. Given a rich enough collection of sample data, the validity of those assumed models can be assessed in a statistical hypothesis testing framework using any of a number of goodness-of-fit tests developed over the last hundred years for this purpose. Such assessments can be used both to compare alternate models for observed data and to help determine the conditions under which a given model breaks down. We apply three such methods, the (chi) 2 test of Karl Pearson, Kolmogorov's goodness-of-fit test, and the D'Agostino-Pearson test for normality, to quantify how well the data fit various models for synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. The results of these tests are used to compare a conditionally Gaussian model for complex-valued SAR pixel values, a conditionally log-normal model for SAR pixel magnitudes, and a conditionally normal model for SAR pixel quarter-power values. Sample data for these tests are drawn from the publicly released MSTAR dataset.

  20. Assessing the fit of site-occupancy models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    MacKenzie, D.I.; Bailey, L.L.

    2004-01-01

    Few species are likely to be so evident that they will always be detected at a site when present. Recently a model has been developed that enables estimation of the proportion of area occupied, when the target species is not detected with certainty. Here we apply this modeling approach to data collected on terrestrial salamanders in the Plethodon glutinosus complex in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA, and wish to address the question 'how accurately does the fitted model represent the data?' The goodness-of-fit of the model needs to be assessed in order to make accurate inferences. This article presents a method where a simple Pearson chi-square statistic is calculated and a parametric bootstrap procedure is used to determine whether the observed statistic is unusually large. We found evidence that the most global model considered provides a poor fit to the data, hence estimated an overdispersion factor to adjust model selection procedures and inflate standard errors. Two hypothetical datasets with known assumption violations are also analyzed, illustrating that the method may be used to guide researchers to making appropriate inferences. The results of a simulation study are presented to provide a broader view of the methods properties.

  1. LITpro: a model fitting software for optical interferometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tallon-Bosc, I.; Tallon, M.; Thiébaut, E.; Béchet, C.; Mella, G.; Lafrasse, S.; Chesneau, O.; Domiciano de Souza, A.; Duvert, G.; Mourard, D.; Petrov, R.; Vannier, M.

    2008-07-01

    LITpro is a software for fitting models on data obtained from various stellar optical interferometers, like the VLTI. As a baseline, for modeling the object, it provides a set of elementary geometrical and center-to-limb darkening functions, all combinable together. But it is also designed to make very easy the implementation of more specific models with their own parameters, to be able to use models closer to astrophysical considerations. So LITpro only requires the modeling functions to compute the Fourier transform of the object at given spatial frequencies, and wavelengths and time if needed. From this, LITpro computes all the necessary quantities as needed (e.g. visibilities, spectral energy distribution, partial derivatives of the model, map of the object model). The fitting engine, especially designed for this kind of optimization, is based on a modified Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm and has been successfully tested on real data in a prototype version. It includes a Trust Region Method, minimizing a heterogeneous non-linear and non-convex criterion and allows the user to set boundaries on free parameters. From a robust local minimization algorithm and a starting points strategy, a global optimization solution is effectively achieved. Tools have been developped to help users to find the global minimum. LITpro is also designed for performing fitting on heterogeneous data. It will be shown, on an example, how it fits simultaneously interferometric data and spectral energy distribution, with some benefits on the reliability of the solution and a better estimation of errors and correlations on the parameters. That is indeed necessary since present interferometric data are generally multi-wavelengths.

  2. Methodology for fitting and updating predictive accident models with trend.

    PubMed

    Connors, Richard D; Maher, Mike; Wood, Alan; Mountain, Linda; Ropkins, Karl

    2013-07-01

    Reliable predictive accident models (PAMs) (also referred to as Safety Performance Functions (SPFs)) have a variety of important uses in traffic safety research and practice. They are used to help identify sites in need of remedial treatment, in the design of transport schemes to assess safety implications, and to estimate the effectiveness of remedial treatments. The PAMs currently in use in the UK are now quite old; the data used in their development was gathered up to 30 years ago. Many changes have occurred over that period in road and vehicle design, in road safety campaigns and legislation, and the national accident rate has fallen substantially. It seems unlikely that these ageing models can be relied upon to provide accurate and reliable predictions of accident frequencies on the roads today. This paper addresses a number of methodological issues that arise in seeking practical and efficient ways to update PAMs, whether by re-calibration or by re-fitting. Models for accidents on rural single carriageway roads have been chosen to illustrate these issues, including the choice of distributional assumption for overdispersion, the choice of goodness of fit measures, questions of independence between observations in different years, and between links on the same scheme, the estimation of trends in the models, the uncertainty of predictions, as well as considerations about the most efficient and convenient ways to fit the required models. PMID:23612560

  3. Model fitting and inference under Latent Equilibrium Processes

    PubMed Central

    Bhattacharya, Sourabh; Gelfand, Alan E.; Holsinger, Kent E.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for model fitting and inference in the context of Bayesian models of the type f(Y | X, θ)f(X | θ)f(θ), where Y is the (set of) observed data, θ is a set of model parameters and X is an unobserved (latent) stationary stochastic process induced by the first order transition model f(X(t+1) | X(t), θ), where X(t) denotes the state of the process at time (or generation) t. The crucial feature of the above type of model is that, given θ, the transition model f(X(t+1) | X(t), θ) is known but the distribution of the stochastic process in equilibrium, that is f(X | θ), is, except in very special cases, intractable, hence unknown. A further point to note is that the data Y has been assumed to be observed when the underlying process is in equilibrium. In other words, the data is not collected dynamically over time. We refer to such specification as a latent equilibrium process (LEP) model. It is motivated by problems in population genetics (though other applications are discussed), where it is of interest to learn about parameters such as mutation and migration rates and population sizes, given a sample of allele frequencies at one or more loci. In such problems it is natural to assume that the distribution of the observed allele frequencies depends on the true (unobserved) population allele frequencies, whereas the distribution of the true allele frequencies is only indirectly specified through a transition model. As a hierarchical specification, it is natural to fit the LEP within a Bayesian framework. Fitting such models is usually done via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However, we demonstrate that, in the case of LEP models, implementation of MCMC is far from straightforward. The main contribution of this paper is to provide a methodology to implement MCMC for LEP models. We demonstrate our approach in population genetics problems with both simulated and real data sets. The resultant model fitting is computationally intensive

  4. Atmospheric Turbulence Modeling for Aerospace Vehicles: Fractional Order Fit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kopasakis, George (Inventor)

    2015-01-01

    An improved model for simulating atmospheric disturbances is disclosed. A scale Kolmogorov spectral may be scaled to convert the Kolmogorov spectral into a finite energy von Karman spectral and a fractional order pole-zero transfer function (TF) may be derived from the von Karman spectral. Fractional order atmospheric turbulence may be approximated with an integer order pole-zero TF fit, and the approximation may be stored in memory.

  5. The Meaning of Goodness-of-Fit Tests: Commentary on "Goodness-of-Fit Assessment of Item Response Theory Models"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thissen, David

    2013-01-01

    In this commentary, David Thissen states that "Goodness-of-fit assessment for IRT models is maturing; it has come a long way from zero." Thissen then references prior works on "goodness of fit" in the index of Lord and Novick's (1968) classic text; Yen (1984); Drasgow, Levine, Tsien, Williams, and Mead (1995); Chen and…

  6. Epistasis and the Structure of Fitness Landscapes: Are Experimental Fitness Landscapes Compatible with Fisher’s Geometric Model?

    PubMed Central

    Blanquart, François; Bataillon, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    The fitness landscape defines the relationship between genotypes and fitness in a given environment and underlies fundamental quantities such as the distribution of selection coefficient and the magnitude and type of epistasis. A better understanding of variation in landscape structure across species and environments is thus necessary to understand and predict how populations will adapt. An increasing number of experiments investigate the properties of fitness landscapes by identifying mutations, constructing genotypes with combinations of these mutations, and measuring the fitness of these genotypes. Yet these empirical landscapes represent a very small sample of the vast space of all possible genotypes, and this sample is often biased by the protocol used to identify mutations. Here we develop a rigorous statistical framework based on Approximate Bayesian Computation to address these concerns and use this flexible framework to fit a broad class of phenotypic fitness models (including Fisher’s model) to 26 empirical landscapes representing nine diverse biological systems. Despite uncertainty owing to the small size of most published empirical landscapes, the inferred landscapes have similar structure in similar biological systems. Surprisingly, goodness-of-fit tests reveal that this class of phenotypic models, which has been successful so far in interpreting experimental data, is a plausible in only three of nine biological systems. More precisely, although Fisher’s model was able to explain several statistical properties of the landscapes—including the mean and SD of selection and epistasis coefficients—it was often unable to explain the full structure of fitness landscapes. PMID:27052568

  7. Bayesian Data-Model Fit Assessment for Structural Equation Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levy, Roy

    2011-01-01

    Bayesian approaches to modeling are receiving an increasing amount of attention in the areas of model construction and estimation in factor analysis, structural equation modeling (SEM), and related latent variable models. However, model diagnostics and model criticism remain relatively understudied aspects of Bayesian SEM. This article describes…

  8. Goodness-of-fit diagnostics for Bayesian hierarchical models.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Ying; Johnson, Valen E

    2012-03-01

    This article proposes methodology for assessing goodness of fit in Bayesian hierarchical models. The methodology is based on comparing values of pivotal discrepancy measures (PDMs), computed using parameter values drawn from the posterior distribution, to known reference distributions. Because the resulting diagnostics can be calculated from standard output of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, their computational costs are minimal. Several simulation studies are provided, each of which suggests that diagnostics based on PDMs have higher statistical power than comparable posterior-predictive diagnostic checks in detecting model departures. The proposed methodology is illustrated in a clinical application; an application to discrete data is described in supplementary material. PMID:22050079

  9. Estimation and prediction of maximum daily rainfall at Sagar Island using best fit probability models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mandal, S.; Choudhury, B. U.

    2015-07-01

    Sagar Island, setting on the continental shelf of Bay of Bengal, is one of the most vulnerable deltas to the occurrence of extreme rainfall-driven climatic hazards. Information on probability of occurrence of maximum daily rainfall will be useful in devising risk management for sustaining rainfed agrarian economy vis-a-vis food and livelihood security. Using six probability distribution models and long-term (1982-2010) daily rainfall data, we studied the probability of occurrence of annual, seasonal and monthly maximum daily rainfall (MDR) in the island. To select the best fit distribution models for annual, seasonal and monthly time series based on maximum rank with minimum value of test statistics, three statistical goodness of fit tests, viz. Kolmogorove-Smirnov test (K-S), Anderson Darling test ( A 2 ) and Chi-Square test ( X 2) were employed. The fourth probability distribution was identified from the highest overall score obtained from the three goodness of fit tests. Results revealed that normal probability distribution was best fitted for annual, post-monsoon and summer seasons MDR, while Lognormal, Weibull and Pearson 5 were best fitted for pre-monsoon, monsoon and winter seasons, respectively. The estimated annual MDR were 50, 69, 86, 106 and 114 mm for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20 and 25 years, respectively. The probability of getting an annual MDR of >50, >100, >150, >200 and >250 mm were estimated as 99, 85, 40, 12 and 03 % level of exceedance, respectively. The monsoon, summer and winter seasons exhibited comparatively higher probabilities (78 to 85 %) for MDR of >100 mm and moderate probabilities (37 to 46 %) for >150 mm. For different recurrence intervals, the percent probability of MDR varied widely across intra- and inter-annual periods. In the island, rainfall anomaly can pose a climatic threat to the sustainability of agricultural production and thus needs adequate adaptation and mitigation measures.

  10. When the model fits the frame: the impact of regulatory fit on efficacy appraisal and persuasion in health communication.

    PubMed

    Bosone, Lucia; Martinez, Frédéric; Kalampalikis, Nikos

    2015-04-01

    In health-promotional campaigns, positive and negative role models can be deployed to illustrate the benefits or costs of certain behaviors. The main purpose of this article is to investigate why, how, and when exposure to role models strengthens the persuasiveness of a message, according to regulatory fit theory. We argue that exposure to a positive versus a negative model activates individuals' goals toward promotion rather than prevention. By means of two experiments, we demonstrate that high levels of persuasion occur when a message advertising healthy dietary habits offers a regulatory fit between its framing and the described role model. Our data also establish that the effects of such internal regulatory fit by vicarious experience depend on individuals' perceptions of response-efficacy and self-efficacy. Our findings constitute a significant theoretical complement to previous research on regulatory fit and contain valuable practical implications for health-promotional campaigns. PMID:25680684

  11. Testing goodness of fit of parametric models for censored data.

    PubMed

    Nysen, Ruth; Aerts, Marc; Faes, Christel

    2012-09-20

    We propose and study a goodness-of-fit test for left-censored, right-censored, and interval-censored data assuming random censorship. Main motivation comes from dietary exposure assessment in chemical risk assessment, where the determination of an appropriate distribution for concentration data is of major importance. We base the new goodness-of-fit test procedure proposed in this paper on the order selection test. As part of the testing procedure, we extend the null model to a series of nested alternative models for censored data. Then, we use a modified AIC model selection to select the best model to describe the data. If a model with one or more extra parameters is selected, then we reject the null hypothesis. As an alternative to the use of the asymptotic null distribution of the test statistic, we define a bootstrap-based procedure. We illustrate the applicability of the test procedure on data of cadmium concentrations and on data from the Signal Tandmobiel study and demonstrate its performance characteristics through simulation studies. PMID:22714389

  12. Fitting IRT Models to Dichotomous and Polytomous Data: Assessing the Relative Model-Data Fit of Ideal Point and Dominance Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tay, Louis; Ali, Usama S.; Drasgow, Fritz; Williams, Bruce

    2011-01-01

    This study investigated the relative model-data fit of an ideal point item response theory (IRT) model (the generalized graded unfolding model [GGUM]) and dominance IRT models (e.g., the two-parameter logistic model [2PLM] and Samejima's graded response model [GRM]) to simulated dichotomous and polytomous data generated from each of these models.…

  13. Rapid world modeling: Fitting range data to geometric primitives

    SciTech Connect

    Feddema, J.; Little, C.

    1996-12-31

    For the past seven years, Sandia National Laboratories has been active in the development of robotic systems to help remediate DOE`s waste sites and decommissioned facilities. Some of these facilities have high levels of radioactivity which prevent manual clean-up. Tele-operated and autonomous robotic systems have been envisioned as the only suitable means of removing the radioactive elements. World modeling is defined as the process of creating a numerical geometric model of a real world environment or workspace. This model is often used in robotics to plan robot motions which perform a task while avoiding obstacles. In many applications where the world model does not exist ahead of time, structured lighting, laser range finders, and even acoustical sensors have been used to create three dimensional maps of the environment. These maps consist of thousands of range points which are difficult to handle and interpret. This paper presents a least squares technique for fitting range data to planar and quadric surfaces, including cylinders and ellipsoids. Once fit to these primitive surfaces, the amount of data associated with a surface is greatly reduced up to three orders of magnitude, thus allowing for more rapid handling and analysis of world data.

  14. A goodness-of-fit test for occupancy models with correlated within-season revisits.

    PubMed

    Wright, Wilson J; Irvine, Kathryn M; Rodhouse, Thomas J

    2016-08-01

    Occupancy modeling is important for exploring species distribution patterns and for conservation monitoring. Within this framework, explicit attention is given to species detection probabilities estimated from replicate surveys to sample units. A central assumption is that replicate surveys are independent Bernoulli trials, but this assumption becomes untenable when ecologists serially deploy remote cameras and acoustic recording devices over days and weeks to survey rare and elusive animals. Proposed solutions involve modifying the detection-level component of the model (e.g., first-order Markov covariate). Evaluating whether a model sufficiently accounts for correlation is imperative, but clear guidance for practitioners is lacking. Currently, an omnibus goodness-of-fit test using a chi-square discrepancy measure on unique detection histories is available for occupancy models (MacKenzie and Bailey, Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, 9, 2004, 300; hereafter, MacKenzie-Bailey test). We propose a join count summary measure adapted from spatial statistics to directly assess correlation after fitting a model. We motivate our work with a dataset of multinight bat call recordings from a pilot study for the North American Bat Monitoring Program. We found in simulations that our join count test was more reliable than the MacKenzie-Bailey test for detecting inadequacy of a model that assumed independence, particularly when serial correlation was low to moderate. A model that included a Markov-structured detection-level covariate produced unbiased occupancy estimates except in the presence of strong serial correlation and a revisit design consisting only of temporal replicates. When applied to two common bat species, our approach illustrates that sophisticated models do not guarantee adequate fit to real data, underscoring the importance of model assessment. Our join count test provides a widely applicable goodness-of-fit test and

  15. Issues in Evaluating Model Fit With Missing Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davey, Adam

    2005-01-01

    Effects of incomplete data on fit indexes remain relatively unexplored. We evaluate a wide set of fit indexes (?[squared], root mean squared error of appproximation, Normed Fit Index [NFI], Tucker-Lewis Index, comparative fit index, gamma-hat, and McDonald's Centrality Index) varying conditions of sample size (100-1,000 in increments of 50),…

  16. Effect of the Number of Variables on Measures of Fit in Structural Equation Modeling.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kenny, David A.; McCoach, D. Betsy

    2003-01-01

    Used three approaches to understand the effect of the number of variables in the model on model fit in structural equation modeling through computer simulation. Developed a simple formula for the theoretical value of the comparative fit index. (SLD)

  17. HIBAYES: Global 21-cm Bayesian Monte-Carlo Model Fitting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zwart, Jonathan T. L.; Price, Daniel; Bernardi, Gianni

    2016-06-01

    HIBAYES implements fully-Bayesian extraction of the sky-averaged (global) 21-cm signal from the Cosmic Dawn and Epoch of Reionization in the presence of foreground emission. User-defined likelihood and prior functions are called by the sampler PyMultiNest (ascl:1606.005) in order to jointly explore the full (signal plus foreground) posterior probability distribution and evaluate the Bayesian evidence for a given model. Implemented models, for simulation and fitting, include gaussians (HI signal) and polynomials (foregrounds). Some simple plotting and analysis tools are supplied. The code can be extended to other models (physical or empirical), to incorporate data from other experiments, or to use alternative Monte-Carlo sampling engines as required.

  18. An NCME Instructional Module on Item-Fit Statistics for Item Response Theory Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ames, Allison J.; Penfield, Randall D.

    2015-01-01

    Drawing valid inferences from item response theory (IRT) models is contingent upon a good fit of the data to the model. Violations of model-data fit have numerous consequences, limiting the usefulness and applicability of the model. This instructional module provides an overview of methods used for evaluating the fit of IRT models. Upon completing…

  19. Empirical fitness models for hepatitis C virus immunogen design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hart, Gregory R.; Ferguson, Andrew L.

    2015-12-01

    Hepatitis C virus (HCV) afflicts 170 million people worldwide, 2%-3% of the global population, and kills 350 000 each year. Prophylactic vaccination offers the most realistic and cost effective hope of controlling this epidemic in the developing world where expensive drug therapies are not available. Despite 20 years of research, the high mutability of the virus and lack of knowledge of what constitutes effective immune responses have impeded development of an effective vaccine. Coupling data mining of sequence databases with spin glass models from statistical physics, we have developed a computational approach to translate clinical sequence databases into empirical fitness landscapes quantifying the replicative capacity of the virus as a function of its amino acid sequence. These landscapes explicitly connect viral genotype to phenotypic fitness, and reveal vulnerable immunological targets within the viral proteome that can be exploited to rationally design vaccine immunogens. We have recovered the empirical fitness landscape for the HCV RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (protein NS5B) responsible for viral genome replication, and validated the predictions of our model by demonstrating excellent accord with experimental measurements and clinical observations. We have used our landscapes to perform exhaustive in silico screening of 16.8 million T-cell immunogen candidates to identify 86 optimal formulations. By reducing the search space of immunogen candidates by over five orders of magnitude, our approach can offer valuable savings in time, expense, and labor for experimental vaccine development and accelerate the search for a HCV vaccine. Abbreviations: HCV—hepatitis C virus, HLA—human leukocyte antigen, CTL—cytotoxic T lymphocyte, NS5B—nonstructural protein 5B, MSA—multiple sequence alignment, PEG-IFN—pegylated interferon.

  20. Assessing Model Data Fit of Unidimensional Item Response Theory Models in Simulated Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kose, Ibrahim Alper

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to give an example of how to assess the model-data fit of unidimensional IRT models in simulated data. Also, the present research aims to explain the importance of fit and the consequences of misfit by using simulated data sets. Responses of 1000 examinees to a dichotomously scoring 20 item test were simulated with 25…

  1. A Commentary on the Relationship between Model Fit and Saturated Path Models in Structural Equation Modeling Applications

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Raykov, Tenko; Lee, Chun-Lung; Marcoulides, George A.; Chang, Chi

    2013-01-01

    The relationship between saturated path-analysis models and their fit to data is revisited. It is demonstrated that a saturated model need not fit perfectly or even well a given data set when fit to the raw data is examined, a criterion currently frequently overlooked by researchers utilizing path analysis modeling techniques. The potential of…

  2. Left Ventricle Segmentation Using Model Fitting and Active Surfaces

    PubMed Central

    Tay, Peter C.; Li, Bing; Garson, Chris D.; Acton, Scott T.; Hossack, John A.

    2010-01-01

    A method to perform 4D (3D over time) segmentation of the left ventricle of a mouse heart using a set of B mode cine slices acquired in vivo from a series of short axis scans is described. We incorporate previously suggested methods such as temporal propagation, the gradient vector flow active surface, superquadric models, etc. into our proposed 4D segmentation of the left ventricle. The contributions of this paper are incorporation of a novel despeckling method and the use of locally fitted superellipsoid models to provide a better initialization for the active surface segmentation algorithm. Average distances of the improved surface segmentation to a manually segmented surface throughout the entire cardiac cycle and cross-sectional contours are provided to demonstrate the improvements produced by the proposed 4D segmentation. PMID:20300558

  3. Strategies for fitting nonlinear ecological models in R, AD Model Builder, and BUGS

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bolker, Benjamin M.; Gardner, Beth; Maunder, Mark; Berg, Casper W.; Brooks, Mollie; Comita, Liza; Crone, Elizabeth; Cubaynes, Sarah; Davies, Trevor; de Valpine, Perry; Ford, Jessica; Gimenez, Olivier; Kéry, Marc; Kim, Eun Jung; Lennert-Cody, Cleridy; Magunsson, Arni; Martell, Steve; Nash, John; Nielson, Anders; Regentz, Jim; Skaug, Hans; Zipkin, Elise

    2013-01-01

    1. Ecologists often use nonlinear fitting techniques to estimate the parameters of complex ecological models, with attendant frustration. This paper compares three open-source model fitting tools and discusses general strategies for defining and fitting models. 2. R is convenient and (relatively) easy to learn, AD Model Builder is fast and robust but comes with a steep learning curve, while BUGS provides the greatest flexibility at the price of speed. 3. Our model-fitting suggestions range from general cultural advice (where possible, use the tools and models that are most common in your subfield) to specific suggestions about how to change the mathematical description of models to make them more amenable to parameter estimation. 4. A companion web site (https://groups.nceas.ucsb.edu/nonlinear-modeling/projects) presents detailed examples of application of the three tools to a variety of typical ecological estimation problems; each example links both to a detailed project report and to full source code and data.

  4. The FIT Model - Fuel-cycle Integration and Tradeoffs

    SciTech Connect

    Steven J. Piet; Nick R. Soelberg; Samuel E. Bays; Candido Pereira; Layne F. Pincock; Eric L. Shaber; Meliisa C Teague; Gregory M Teske; Kurt G Vedros

    2010-09-01

    All mass streams from fuel separation and fabrication are products that must meet some set of product criteria – fuel feedstock impurity limits, waste acceptance criteria (WAC), material storage (if any), or recycle material purity requirements such as zirconium for cladding or lanthanides for industrial use. These must be considered in a systematic and comprehensive way. The FIT model and the “system losses study” team that developed it [Shropshire2009, Piet2010] are an initial step by the FCR&D program toward a global analysis that accounts for the requirements and capabilities of each component, as well as major material flows within an integrated fuel cycle. This will help the program identify near-term R&D needs and set longer-term goals. The question originally posed to the “system losses study” was the cost of separation, fuel fabrication, waste management, etc. versus the separation efficiency. In other words, are the costs associated with marginal reductions in separations losses (or improvements in product recovery) justified by the gains in the performance of other systems? We have learned that that is the wrong question. The right question is: how does one adjust the compositions and quantities of all mass streams, given uncertain product criteria, to balance competing objectives including cost? FIT is a method to analyze different fuel cycles using common bases to determine how chemical performance changes in one part of a fuel cycle (say used fuel cooling times or separation efficiencies) affect other parts of the fuel cycle. FIT estimates impurities in fuel and waste via a rough estimate of physics and mass balance for a set of technologies. If feasibility is an issue for a set, as it is for “minimum fuel treatment” approaches such as melt refining and AIROX, it can help to make an estimate of how performances would have to change to achieve feasibility.

  5. Robust Fitting of a Weibull Model with Optional Censoring

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Jingjing; Scott, David W.

    2013-01-01

    The Weibull family is widely used to model failure data, or lifetime data, although the classical two-parameter Weibull distribution is limited to positive data and monotone failure rate. The parameters of the Weibull model are commonly obtained by maximum likelihood estimation; however, it is well-known that this estimator is not robust when dealing with contaminated data. A new robust procedure is introduced to fit a Weibull model by using L2 distance, i.e. integrated square distance, of the Weibull probability density function. The Weibull model is augmented with a weight parameter to robustly deal with contaminated data. Results comparing a maximum likelihood estimator with an L2 estimator are given in this article, based on both simulated and real data sets. It is shown that this new L2 parametric estimation method is more robust and does a better job than maximum likelihood in the newly proposed Weibull model when data are contaminated. The same preference for L2 distance criterion and the new Weibull model also happens for right-censored data with contamination. PMID:23888090

  6. Fitting of Parametric Building Models to Oblique Aerial Images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panday, U. S.; Gerke, M.

    2011-09-01

    In literature and in photogrammetric workstations many approaches and systems to automatically reconstruct buildings from remote sensing data are described and available. Those building models are being used for instance in city modeling or in cadastre context. If a roof overhang is present, the building walls cannot be estimated correctly from nadir-view aerial images or airborne laser scanning (ALS) data. This leads to inconsistent building outlines, which has a negative influence on visual impression, but more seriously also represents a wrong legal boundary in the cadaster. Oblique aerial images as opposed to nadir-view images reveal greater detail, enabling to see different views of an object taken from different directions. Building walls are visible from oblique images directly and those images are used for automated roof overhang estimation in this research. A fitting algorithm is employed to find roof parameters of simple buildings. It uses a least squares algorithm to fit projected wire frames to their corresponding edge lines extracted from the images. Self-occlusion is detected based on intersection result of viewing ray and the planes formed by the building whereas occlusion from other objects is detected using an ALS point cloud. Overhang and ground height are obtained by sweeping vertical and horizontal planes respectively. Experimental results are verified with high resolution ortho-images, field survey, and ALS data. Planimetric accuracy of 1cm mean and 5cm standard deviation was obtained, while buildings' orientation were accurate to mean of 0.23° and standard deviation of 0.96° with ortho-image. Overhang parameters were aligned to approximately 10cm with field survey. The ground and roof heights were accurate to mean of - 9cm and 8cm with standard deviations of 16cm and 8cm with ALS respectively. The developed approach reconstructs 3D building models well in cases of sufficient texture. More images should be acquired for completeness of

  7. Anatomical features for an adequate choice of experimental animal model in biomedicine: II. Small laboratory rodents, rabbit, and pig.

    PubMed

    Lossi, Laura; D'Angelo, Livia; De Girolamo, Paolo; Merighi, Adalberto

    2016-03-01

    The anatomical features distinctive to each of the very large array of species used in today's biomedical research must be born in mind when considering the correct choice of animal model(s), particularly when translational research is concerned. In this paper we take into consideration and discuss the most important anatomical and histological features of the commonest species of laboratory rodents (rat, mouse, guinea pig, hamster, and gerbil), rabbit, and pig related to their importance for applied research. PMID:26527557

  8. An experimentally informed evolutionary model improves phylogenetic fit to divergent lactamase homologs.

    PubMed

    Bloom, Jesse D

    2014-10-01

    Phylogenetic analyses of molecular data require a quantitative model for how sequences evolve. Traditionally, the details of the site-specific selection that governs sequence evolution are not known a priori, making it challenging to create evolutionary models that adequately capture the heterogeneity of selection at different sites. However, recent advances in high-throughput experiments have made it possible to quantify the effects of all single mutations on gene function. I have previously shown that such high-throughput experiments can be combined with knowledge of underlying mutation rates to create a parameter-free evolutionary model that describes the phylogeny of influenza nucleoprotein far better than commonly used existing models. Here, I extend this work by showing that published experimental data on TEM-1 beta-lactamase (Firnberg E, Labonte JW, Gray JJ, Ostermeier M. 2014. A comprehensive, high-resolution map of a gene's fitness landscape. Mol Biol Evol. 31:1581-1592) can be combined with a few mutation rate parameters to create an evolutionary model that describes beta-lactamase phylogenies much better than most common existing models. This experimentally informed evolutionary model is superior even for homologs that are substantially diverged (about 35% divergence at the protein level) from the TEM-1 parent that was the subject of the experimental study. These results suggest that experimental measurements can inform phylogenetic evolutionary models that are applicable to homologs that span a substantial range of sequence divergence. PMID:25063439

  9. Using R^2 to compare least-squares fit models: When it must fail

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    R^2 can be used correctly to select from among competing least-squares fit models when the data are fitted in common form and with common weighting. However, then R^2 comparisons become equivalent to comparisons of the estimated fit variance s^2 in unweighted fitting, or of the reduced chi-square in...

  10. Fitting optimum order of Markov chain models for daily rainfall occurrences in Peninsular Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deni, Sayang Mohd; Jemain, Abdul Aziz; Ibrahim, Kamarulzaman

    2009-06-01

    The analysis of the daily rainfall occurrence behavior is becoming more important, particularly in water-related sectors. Many studies have identified a more comprehensive pattern of the daily rainfall behavior based on the Markov chain models. One of the aims in fitting the Markov chain models of various orders to the daily rainfall occurrence is to determine the optimum order. In this study, the optimum order of the Markov chain models for a 5-day sequence will be examined in each of the 18 rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia, which have been selected based on the availability of the data, using the Akaike’s (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). The identification of the most appropriate order in describing the distribution of the wet (dry) spells for each of the rainfall stations is obtained using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test. It is found that the optimum order varies according to the levels of threshold used (e.g., either 0.1 or 10.0 mm), the locations of the region and the types of monsoon seasons. At most stations, the Markov chain models of a higher order are found to be optimum for rainfall occurrence during the northeast monsoon season for both levels of threshold. However, it is generally found that regardless of the monsoon seasons, the first-order model is optimum for the northwestern and eastern regions of the peninsula when the level of thresholds of 10.0 mm is considered. The analysis indicates that the first order of the Markov chain model is found to be most appropriate for describing the distribution of wet spells, whereas the higher-order models are found to be adequate for the dry spells in most of the rainfall stations for both threshold levels and monsoon seasons.

  11. Simulations of Statistical Model Fits to RHIC Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llope, W. J.

    2013-04-01

    The application of statistical model fits to experimentally measured particle multiplicity ratios allows inferences of the average values of temperatures, T, baryochemical potentials, μB, and other quantities at chemical freeze-out. The location of the boundary between the hadronic and partonic regions in the (μB,T) phase diagram, and the possible existence of a critical point, remains largely speculative. The search for a critical point using the moments of the particle multiplicity distributions in tightly centrality constrained event samples makes the tacit assumption that the variances in the (μB,T) values in these samples is sufficiently small to tightly localize the events in the phase diagram. This and other aspects were explored in simulations by coupling the UrQMD transport model to the statistical model code Thermus. The phase diagram trajectories of individual events versus the time in fm/c was calculated versus the centrality and beam energy. The variances of the (μB,T) values at freeze-out, even in narrow centrality bins, are seen to be relatively large. This suggests that a new way to constrain the events on the phase diagram may lead to more sensitive searches for the possible critical point.

  12. NiftyFit: a Software Package for Multi-parametric Model-Fitting of 4D Magnetic Resonance Imaging Data.

    PubMed

    Melbourne, Andrew; Toussaint, Nicolas; Owen, David; Simpson, Ivor; Anthopoulos, Thanasis; De Vita, Enrico; Atkinson, David; Ourselin, Sebastien

    2016-07-01

    Multi-modal, multi-parametric Magnetic Resonance (MR) Imaging is becoming an increasingly sophisticated tool for neuroimaging. The relationships between parameters estimated from different individual MR modalities have the potential to transform our understanding of brain function, structure, development and disease. This article describes a new software package for such multi-contrast Magnetic Resonance Imaging that provides a unified model-fitting framework. We describe model-fitting functionality for Arterial Spin Labeled MRI, T1 Relaxometry, T2 relaxometry and Diffusion Weighted imaging, providing command line documentation to generate the figures in the manuscript. Software and data (using the nifti file format) used in this article are simultaneously provided for download. We also present some extended applications of the joint model fitting framework applied to diffusion weighted imaging and T2 relaxometry, in order to both improve parameter estimation in these models and generate new parameters that link different MR modalities. NiftyFit is intended as a clear and open-source educational release so that the user may adapt and develop their own functionality as they require. PMID:26972806

  13. Evaluating Potential P-gp Substrates: Main Aspects to Choose the Adequate Permeability Model for Assessing Gastrointestinal Drug Absorption.

    PubMed

    da Silva Junior, João Batista; Dezani, Thaisa Marinho; Dezani, André Bersani; dos Reis Serra, Cristina Helena

    2015-01-01

    The success of an oral drug route administration depends on many factors that interfere in its bioavailability, therapeutic efficacy and clinical safety. In human cells, ATP-dependent efflux transporter proteins, such as P-glycoprotein (P-gp), BCRP and MRP2, reduce the absorption of drugs. A tiered approach chosen to evaluate drugs as substrates or inhibitors of efflux pumps, particularly P-gp, should be carefully selected, since each study method has advantages and intrinsic limitations to their processes. Depending on the adopted study conditions, the results may not correspond to the real characteristics of the drug regarding to its modulation by specific efflux proteins. This mini-review aims at summarizing the role of P-gp in the drugs oral absorption and correlating some of the most used permeability methods to determine the drug condition as P-gp substrate. Studies about P-gp have shown that it is a dynamic protein, facilitating secretion of endogenous compounds, as aldosterone, and protecting cells against xenobiotics. Different efflux assays are employed to evaluate drugs as P-gp substrates. In an initial planning, MDCK-MDR1 tend to be the chosen method for efflux studies due its ability of express P-gp, followed by studies conducted in Caco-2 models. However, it is necessary to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of each method to generate sound results and to set the correlation in vitro x in situ x in vivo. PMID:25963568

  14. A Comparison of Four Estimators of a Population Measure of Model Fit in Covariance Structure Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Wei

    2008-01-01

    A major issue in the utilization of covariance structure analysis is model fit evaluation. Recent years have witnessed increasing interest in various test statistics and so-called fit indexes, most of which are actually based on or closely related to F[subscript 0], a measure of model fit in the population. This study aims to provide a systematic…

  15. Performance of the Generalized S-X[squared] Item Fit Index for the Graded Response Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kang, Taehoon; Chen, Troy T.

    2011-01-01

    The utility of Orlando and Thissen's ("2000", "2003") S-X[squared] fit index was extended to the model-fit analysis of the graded response model (GRM). The performance of a modified S-X[squared] in assessing item-fit of the GRM was investigated in light of empirical Type I error rates and power with a simulation study having various conditions…

  16. Modelling microbial dechlorination of trichloroethene: investigating the trade-off between quality of fit and parameter reliability.

    PubMed

    Kandris, K; Antoniou, K; Pantazidou, M; Mamais, D

    2015-03-01

    This work puts forth a heuristic approach for investigating compromises between quality of fit and parameter reliability for the Monod-type kinetics employed to model microbial reductive dechlorination of trichloroethene. The methodology is demonstrated with three models of increasing fidelity and complexity. Model parameters were estimated with a stochastic global optimization algorithm, using scarce and inherently noisy experimental data from a mixed anaerobic microbial culture, which dechlorinated trichloroethene to ethene completely. Parameter reliability of each model was assessed using a Monte Carlo technique. Finally, an alternate quantity of applied interest was evaluated in order to assist with model discrimination. Results from the application of our approach suggest that the modeler should examine the implementation of conceptually simple models, even if they are a crude abstraction of reality, as they can be computationally less demanding and adequately accurate when model performance is assessed with criteria of applied interest, such as chloroethene elimination time. PMID:25447439

  17. Model-independent fit to Planck and BICEP2 data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barranco, Laura; Boubekeur, Lotfi; Mena, Olga

    2014-09-01

    Inflation is the leading theory to describe elegantly the initial conditions that led to structure formation in our Universe. In this paper, we present a novel phenomenological fit to the Planck, WMAP polarization (WP) and the BICEP2 data sets using an alternative parametrization. Instead of starting from inflationary potentials and computing the inflationary observables, we use a phenomenological parametrization due to Mukhanov, describing inflation by an effective equation of state, in terms of the number of e-folds and two phenomenological parameters α and β. Within such a parametrization, which captures the different inflationary models in a model-independent way, the values of the scalar spectral index ns, its running and the tensor-to-scalar ratio r are predicted, given a set of parameters (α ,β). We perform a Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis of these parameters, and we show that the combined analysis of Planck and WP data favors the Starobinsky and Higgs inflation scenarios. Assuming that the BICEP2 signal is not entirely due to foregrounds, the addition of this last data set prefers instead the ϕ2 chaotic models. The constraint we get from Planck and WP data alone on the derived tensor-to-scalar ratio is r <0.18 at 95% C.L., value which is consistent with the one quoted from the BICEP2 Collaboration analysis, r =0.16-0.05+0-06, after foreground subtraction. This is not necessarily at odds with the 2σ tension found between Planck and BICEP2 measurements when analyzing data in terms of the usual ns and r parameters, given that the parametrization used here, for the preferred value ns≃0.96, allows only for a restricted parameter space in the usual (ns,r) plane.

  18. A quantitative confidence signal detection model: 1. Fitting psychometric functions.

    PubMed

    Yi, Yongwoo; Merfeld, Daniel M

    2016-04-01

    Perceptual thresholds are commonly assayed in the laboratory and clinic. When precision and accuracy are required, thresholds are quantified by fitting a psychometric function to forced-choice data. The primary shortcoming of this approach is that it typically requires 100 trials or more to yield accurate (i.e., small bias) and precise (i.e., small variance) psychometric parameter estimates. We show that confidence probability judgments combined with a model of confidence can yield psychometric parameter estimates that are markedly more precise and/or markedly more efficient than conventional methods. Specifically, both human data and simulations show that including confidence probability judgments for just 20 trials can yield psychometric parameter estimates that match the precision of those obtained from 100 trials using conventional analyses. Such an efficiency advantage would be especially beneficial for tasks (e.g., taste, smell, and vestibular assays) that require more than a few seconds for each trial, but this potential benefit could accrue for many other tasks. PMID:26763777

  19. Is the solvation parameter model or its adaptations adequate to account for ionic interactions when characterizing stationary phases for drug impurity profiling with supercritical fluid chromatography?

    PubMed

    Galea, Charlene; West, Caroline; Mangelings, Debby; Vander Heyden, Yvan

    2016-06-14

    Nine commercially available polar and aromatic stationary phases were characterized under supercritical fluid chromatographic (SFC) conditions. Retention data of 64 pharmaceutical compounds was acquired to generate models based on the linear solvation energy relationship (LSER) approach. Previously, adaptation of the LSER model was done in liquid chromatography by the addition of two solute descriptors to describe the influence of positive (D(+)) and negative (D(-)) charges on the retention of ionized compounds. In this study, the LSER models, with and without the ionization terms for acidic and basic solutes, were compared. The improved fits obtained for the modified models support inclusion of the D(+) and D(-) terms for pharmaceutical compounds. Moreover, the statistical significance of the new terms in the models indicates the importance of ionic interactions in the retention of pharmaceutical compounds in SFC. However, unlike characterization through the retention profiles, characterization of the stationary phases by modelling never explains the retention variance completely and thus seems less appropriate. PMID:27181639

  20. An Application of M[subscript 2] Statistic to Evaluate the Fit of Cognitive Diagnostic Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Yanlou; Tian, Wei; Xin, Tao

    2016-01-01

    The fit of cognitive diagnostic models (CDMs) to response data needs to be evaluated, since CDMs might yield misleading results when they do not fit the data well. Limited-information statistic M[subscript 2] and the associated root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA[subscript 2]) in item factor analysis were extended to evaluate the fit of…

  1. Comparing the Fit of Item Response Theory and Factor Analysis Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto; Cai, Li; Hernandez, Adolfo

    2011-01-01

    Linear factor analysis (FA) models can be reliably tested using test statistics based on residual covariances. We show that the same statistics can be used to reliably test the fit of item response theory (IRT) models for ordinal data (under some conditions). Hence, the fit of an FA model and of an IRT model to the same data set can now be…

  2. Convergence, Admissibility, and Fit of Alternative Confirmatory Factor Analysis Models for MTMM Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lance, Charles E.; Fan, Yi

    2016-01-01

    We compared six different analytic models for multitrait-multimethod (MTMM) data in terms of convergence, admissibility, and model fit to 258 samples of previously reported data. Two well-known models, the correlated trait-correlated method (CTCM) and the correlated trait-correlated uniqueness (CTCU) models, were fit for reference purposes in…

  3. Regularization Methods for Fitting Linear Models with Small Sample Sizes: Fitting the Lasso Estimator Using R

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Finch, W. Holmes; Finch, Maria E. Hernandez

    2016-01-01

    Researchers and data analysts are sometimes faced with the problem of very small samples, where the number of variables approaches or exceeds the overall sample size; i.e. high dimensional data. In such cases, standard statistical models such as regression or analysis of variance cannot be used, either because the resulting parameter estimates…

  4. Lithologic prediction from the stratal architecture of Plio-Pleistocene Gulf of Mexico: Are the eustatic depositional systems tract models adequate

    SciTech Connect

    Butler, M.L.; Self, G.A. )

    1991-03-01

    Climatic/eustatic cycles of the Plio-Pleistocene have been defined in the northern Gulf of Mexico and precisely tied to their associated sequences and lithologies by means of graphic correlation. This framework has provided the data necessary for a detailed empirical evaluation of the eustatic depositional systems tract models. The key to this evaluation is a eustatic sea-level curve derived from fossil and isotope data. A curve of this type has been defined for several sequences. Using this eustatic curve the actual lithofacies and position of the various systems tracts were directly compared to those predicted by the models. The evaluation of the data with respect to eustatic sea level yielded conclusions that are significantly different from those predicted by the models. The evaluation of the data with respect to eustatic sea level yielded conclusions that are significantly different from those predicted by the model. The most significant of these differences are: (1) significant amounts of sand were deposited in deep water during transgressive and highstand intervals; (2) the observed vertical succession of eustatic depositional systems tracts within a given sequence are transgressive, highstand, and lowstand, and (3) factors other than eustacy have been the dominant influence on facies distribution within the Plio-Pleistocene sequences studied. These results demonstrate that depositional systems tracts and internal facies distribution could not be adequately described by a single model. Therefore, sequence stratigraphic analysis should be empirically based and conducted within the context of the basin, instead of being model driven.

  5. The Search for "Optimal" Cutoff Properties: Fit Index Criteria in Structural Equation Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sivo, Stephen A.; Xitao, Fan; Witta, E. Lea; Willse, John T.

    2006-01-01

    This study is a partial replication of L. Hu and P. M. Bentler's (1999) fit criteria work. The purpose of this study was twofold: (a) to determine whether cut-off values vary according to which model is the true population model for a dataset and (b) to identify which of 13 fit indexes behave optimally by retaining all of the correct models while…

  6. A Comparison of Model-Data Fit for Parametric and Nonparametric Item Response Theory Models Using Ordinal-Level Ratings

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dyehouse, Melissa A.

    2009-01-01

    This study compared the model-data fit of a parametric item response theory (PIRT) model to a nonparametric item response theory (NIRT) model to determine the best-fitting model for use with ordinal-level alternate assessment ratings. The PIRT Generalized Graded Unfolding Model (GGUM) was compared to the NIRT Mokken model. Chi-square statistics…

  7. Multiplex networks with intrinsic fitness: Modeling the merit-fame interplay via latent layers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fotouhi, Babak; Momeni, Naghmeh

    2015-11-01

    We consider the problem of growing multiplex networks with intrinsic fitness and inter-layer coupling. The model comprises two layers; one that incorporates fitness and another in which attachments are preferential. In the first layer, attachment probabilities are proportional to fitness values, and in the second layer, proportional to the sum of degrees in both layers. We provide analytical closed-form solutions for the joint distributions of fitness and degrees. We also derive closed-form expressions for the expected value of the degree as a function of fitness. The model alleviates two shortcomings that are present in the current models of growing multiplex networks: homogeneity of connections, and homogeneity of fitness. In this paper, we posit and analyze a growth model that is heterogeneous in both senses.

  8. Model Fitting for Predicted Precipitation in Darwin: Some Issues with Model Choice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Farmer, Jim

    2010-01-01

    In Volume 23(2) of the "Australian Senior Mathematics Journal," Boncek and Harden present an exercise in fitting a Markov chain model to rainfall data for Darwin Airport (Boncek & Harden, 2009). Days are subdivided into those with precipitation and precipitation-free days. The author abbreviates these labels to wet days and dry days. It is…

  9. Fitting the Rasch Model to Account for Variation in Item Discrimination

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weitzman, R. A.

    2009-01-01

    Building on the Kelley and Gulliksen versions of classical test theory, this article shows that a logistic model having only a single item parameter can account for varying item discrimination, as well as difficulty, by using item-test correlations to adjust incorrect-correct (0-1) item responses prior to an initial model fit. The fit occurs…

  10. Why Should We Assess the Goodness-of-Fit of IRT Models?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto

    2013-01-01

    In this rejoinder, Maydeu-Olivares states that, in item response theory (IRT) measurement applications, the application of goodness-of-fit (GOF) methods informs researchers of the discrepancy between the model and the data being fitted (the room for improvement). By routinely reporting the GOF of IRT models, together with the substantive results…

  11. Fitting Multilevel Models with Ordinal Outcomes: Performance of Alternative Specifications and Methods of Estimation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bauer, Daniel J.; Sterba, Sonya K.

    2011-01-01

    Previous research has compared methods of estimation for fitting multilevel models to binary data, but there are reasons to believe that the results will not always generalize to the ordinal case. This article thus evaluates (a) whether and when fitting multilevel linear models to ordinal outcome data is justified and (b) which estimator to employ…

  12. Residuals and the Residual-Based Statistic for Testing Goodness of Fit of Structural Equation Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foldnes, Njal; Foss, Tron; Olsson, Ulf Henning

    2012-01-01

    The residuals obtained from fitting a structural equation model are crucial ingredients in obtaining chi-square goodness-of-fit statistics for the model. The authors present a didactic discussion of the residuals, obtaining a geometrical interpretation by recognizing the residuals as the result of oblique projections. This sheds light on the…

  13. Performance of the Generalized S-X[Superscript 2] Item Fit Index for Polytomous IRT Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kang, Taehoon; Chen, Troy T.

    2008-01-01

    Orlando and Thissen's S-X[superscript 2] item fit index has performed better than traditional item fit statistics such as Yen' s Q[subscript 1] and McKinley and Mill' s G[superscript 2] for dichotomous item response theory (IRT) models. This study extends the utility of S-X[superscript 2] to polytomous IRT models, including the generalized partial…

  14. Practical and adequate approach to modeling light propagation in an adult head with low-scattering regions by use of diffusion theory.

    PubMed

    Koyama, Tatsuya; Iwasaki, Atsushi; Ogoshi, Yosuke; Okada, Eiji

    2005-04-10

    A practical and adequate approach to modeling light propagation in an adult head with a low-scattering cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) region by use of diffusion theory was investigated. The diffusion approximation does not hold in a nonscattering or low-scattering regions. The hybrid radiosity-diffusion method was adopted to model the light propagation in the head with a nonscattering region. In the hybrid method the geometry of the nonscattering region is acquired as a priori information. In reality, low-level scattering occurs in the CSF region and may reduce the error caused by the diffusion approximation. The partial optical path length and the spatial sensitivity profile calculated by the finite-element method agree well with those calculated by the Monte Carlo method in the case in which the transport scattering coefficient of the CSF layer is greater than 0.3 mm(-1). Because it is feasible to assume that the transport scattering coefficient of a CSF layer is 0.3 mm(-1), it is practical to adopt diffusion theory to the modeling of light propagation in an adult head as an alternative to the hybrid method. PMID:15835358

  15. Practical and adequate approach to modeling light propagation in an adult head with low-scattering regions by use of diffusion theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koyama, Tatsuya; Iwasaki, Atsushi; Ogoshi, Yosuke; Okada, Eiji

    2005-04-01

    A practical and adequate approach to modeling light propagation in an adult head with a low-scattering cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) region by use of diffusion theory was investigated. The diffusion approximation does not hold in a nonscattering or low-scattering regions. The hybrid radiosity-diffusion method was adopted to model the light propagation in the head with a nonscattering region. In the hybrid method the geometry of the nonscattering region is acquired as a priori information. In reality, low-level scattering occurs in the CSF region and may reduce the error caused by the diffusion approximation. The partial optical path length and the spatial sensitivity profile calculated by the finite-element method agree well with those calculated by the Monte Carlo method in the case in which the transport scattering coefficient of the CSF layer is greater than 0.3 mm^-1. Because it is feasible to assume that the transport scattering coefficient of a CSF layer is 0.3 mm^-1, it is practical to adopt diffusion theory to the modeling of light propagation in an adult head as an alternative to the hybrid method.

  16. TRANSIT MODEL FITTING IN THE KEPLER SCIENCE OPERATIONS CENTER PIPELINE: NEW FEATURES AND PERFORMANCE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Jie; Burke, C. J.; Jenkins, J. M.; Quintana, E. V.; Rowe, J. F.; Seader, S. E.; Tenenbaum, P.; Twicken, J. D.

    2013-10-01

    We describe new transit model fitting features and performance of the latest release (9.1, July 2013) of the Kepler Science Operations Center (SOC) Pipeline. The targets for which a Threshold Crossing Event (TCE) is generated in the Transiting Planet Search (TPS) component of the pipeline are subsequently processed in the Data Validation (DV) component. Transit model parameters are fitted in DV to transit-like signatures in the light curves of the targets with TCEs. The transit model fitting results are used in diagnostic tests in DV, which help to validate planet candidates and identify false positive detections. The standard transit model includes five fit parameters: transit epoch time (i.e. central time of first transit), orbital period, impact parameter, ratio of planet radius to star radius and ratio of semi-major axis to star radius. Light curves for many targets do not contain enough information to uniquely determine the impact parameter, which results in poor convergence performance of the fitter. In the latest release of the Kepler SOC pipeline, a reduced parameter fit is included in DV: the impact parameter is set to a fixed value and the four remaining parameters are fitted. The standard transit model fit is implemented after a series of reduced parameter fits in which the impact parameter is varied between 0 and 1. Initial values for the standard transit model fit parameters are determined by the reduced parameter fit with the minimum chi-square metric. With reduced parameter fits, the robustness of the transit model fit is improved significantly. Diagnostic plots of the chi-square metrics and reduced parameter fit results illustrate how the fitted parameters vary as a function of impact parameter. Essentially, a family of transiting planet characteristics is determined in DV for each Pipeline TCE. Transit model fitting performance of release 9.1 of the Kepler SOC pipeline is demonstrated with the results of the processing of 16 quarters of flight data

  17. An accurate halo model for fitting non-linear cosmological power spectra and baryonic feedback models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mead, A. J.; Peacock, J. A.; Heymans, C.; Joudaki, S.; Heavens, A. F.

    2015-12-01

    We present an optimized variant of the halo model, designed to produce accurate matter power spectra well into the non-linear regime for a wide range of cosmological models. To do this, we introduce physically motivated free parameters into the halo-model formalism and fit these to data from high-resolution N-body simulations. For a variety of Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) and wCDM models, the halo-model power is accurate to ≃ 5 per cent for k ≤ 10h Mpc-1 and z ≤ 2. An advantage of our new halo model is that it can be adapted to account for the effects of baryonic feedback on the power spectrum. We demonstrate this by fitting the halo model to power spectra from the OWLS (OverWhelmingly Large Simulations) hydrodynamical simulation suite via parameters that govern halo internal structure. We are able to fit all feedback models investigated at the 5 per cent level using only two free parameters, and we place limits on the range of these halo parameters for feedback models investigated by the OWLS simulations. Accurate predictions to high k are vital for weak-lensing surveys, and these halo parameters could be considered nuisance parameters to marginalize over in future analyses to mitigate uncertainty regarding the details of feedback. Finally, we investigate how lensing observables predicted by our model compare to those from simulations and from HALOFIT for a range of k-cuts and feedback models and quantify the angular scales at which these effects become important. Code to calculate power spectra from the model presented in this paper can be found at https://github.com/alexander-mead/hmcode.

  18. Assessing Fit of Cognitive Diagnostic Models: A Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sinharay, Sandip; Almond, Russell G.

    2007-01-01

    A cognitive diagnostic model uses information from educational experts to describe the relationships between item performances and posited proficiencies. When the cognitive relationships can be described using a fully Bayesian model, Bayesian model checking procedures become available. Checking models tied to cognitive theory of the domains…

  19. Moment-Based Probability Modeling and Extreme Response Estimation, The FITS Routine Version 1.2

    SciTech Connect

    MANUEL,LANCE; KASHEF,TINA; WINTERSTEIN,STEVEN R.

    1999-11-01

    This report documents the use of the FITS routine, which provides automated fits of various analytical, commonly used probability models from input data. It is intended to complement the previously distributed FITTING routine documented in RMS Report 14 (Winterstein et al., 1994), which implements relatively complex four-moment distribution models whose parameters are fit with numerical optimization routines. Although these four-moment fits can be quite useful and faithful to the observed data, their complexity can make them difficult to automate within standard fitting algorithms. In contrast, FITS provides more robust (lower moment) fits of simpler, more conventional distribution forms. For each database of interest, the routine estimates the distribution of annual maximum response based on the data values and the duration, T, over which they were recorded. To focus on the upper tails of interest, the user can also supply an arbitrary lower-bound threshold, {chi}{sub low}, above which a shifted distribution model--exponential or Weibull--is fit.

  20. Model Fitting Versus Curve Fitting: A Model of Renormalization Provides a Better Account of Age Aftereffects Than a Model of Local Repulsion

    PubMed Central

    Mac, Amy; Rhodes, Gillian; Webster, Michael A.

    2015-01-01

    Recently, we proposed that the aftereffects of adapting to facial age are consistent with a renormalization of the perceived age (e.g., so that after adapting to a younger or older age, all ages appear slightly older or younger, respectively). This conclusion has been challenged by arguing that the aftereffects can also be accounted for by an alternative model based on repulsion (in which facial ages above or below the adapting age are biased away from the adaptor). However, we show here that this challenge was based on allowing the fitted functions to take on values which are implausible and incompatible across the different adapting conditions. When the fits are constrained or interpreted in terms of standard assumptions about normalization and repulsion, then the two analyses both agree in pointing to a pattern of renormalization in age aftereffects. PMID:27551353

  1. Aiming towards improved flood forecasting: Identification of an adequate model structure for a semi-arid and data-scarce region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pilz, Tobias; Francke, Till; Bronstert, Axel

    2015-04-01

    A lot of effort has already been put into the development of forecasting systems to warn people of approaching flood events. Such systems, however, are influenced by various sources of uncertainty which constrain the skill of forecasts. The main goal of this study is the identification, quantification and reduction of uncertainties to provide improved early warnings with adequate lead times in a data-scarce region with strong seasonality of the hydrological regime. This includes the setup of hydrological models and post-processing of simulation results by mathematical means such as data assimilation. The focus area is the Jaguaribe watershed in northeastern Brazil. The region is characterized by a seasonal climate with strong inter-annual variation and recurrent droughts. To ensure a secure water supply also during the dry season several thousand small and some large reservoirs have been constructed. On the other hand, floods caused by heavy rain events are an issue as well. This topic, however, so far has hardly been considered by the scientific community and until today no flood forecasting system exists for that region. To identify the most appropriate model structure for the catchment the process-based hydrological model for semi-arid environments WASA was implemented into the eco-hydrological simulation environment ECHSE. The environment consists of a generic part providing data types and simulation methods, and a problem-specific part where the user can implement different model formulations. This provides the possibility to test various process realisations under consistent input and output data structures. The most appropriate model structure can then be determined by statistical means such as Bayesian model averaging. Subsequently, forecast results may be updated by post-processing and/or data assimilation. Furthermore, methods of data fusion can be used to combine measurements of different quality and resolution, such as in-situ and remotely sensed data

  2. Insight into model mechanisms through automatic parameter fitting: a new methodological framework for model development

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Striking a balance between the degree of model complexity and parameter identifiability, while still producing biologically feasible simulations using modelling is a major challenge in computational biology. While these two elements of model development are closely coupled, parameter fitting from measured data and analysis of model mechanisms have traditionally been performed separately and sequentially. This process produces potential mismatches between model and data complexities that can compromise the ability of computational frameworks to reveal mechanistic insights or predict new behaviour. In this study we address this issue by presenting a generic framework for combined model parameterisation, comparison of model alternatives and analysis of model mechanisms. Results The presented methodology is based on a combination of multivariate metamodelling (statistical approximation of the input–output relationships of deterministic models) and a systematic zooming into biologically feasible regions of the parameter space by iterative generation of new experimental designs and look-up of simulations in the proximity of the measured data. The parameter fitting pipeline includes an implicit sensitivity analysis and analysis of parameter identifiability, making it suitable for testing hypotheses for model reduction. Using this approach, under-constrained model parameters, as well as the coupling between parameters within the model are identified. The methodology is demonstrated by refitting the parameters of a published model of cardiac cellular mechanics using a combination of measured data and synthetic data from an alternative model of the same system. Using this approach, reduced models with simplified expressions for the tropomyosin/crossbridge kinetics were found by identification of model components that can be omitted without affecting the fit to the parameterising data. Our analysis revealed that model parameters could be constrained to a standard

  3. Using LISREL to Fit Nonlinear Latent Curve Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blozis, Shelley A.; Harring, Jeffrey R.; Mels, Gerhard

    2008-01-01

    Latent curve models offer a flexible approach to the study of longitudinal data when the form of change in a response is nonlinear. This article considers such models that are conditionally linear with regard to the random coefficients at the 2nd level. This framework allows fixed parameters to enter a model linearly or nonlinearly, and random…

  4. A life-history model of human fitness indicators.

    PubMed

    Sefcek, Jon A; Figueredo, Aurelio José

    2010-01-01

    Recent adaptationist accounts of human mental and physical health have reinvigorated the debate over the evolution of human intelligence. In the tradition of strong inference the current study was developed to determine whether either Miller's (1998, 2000a) Fitness Indicator Theory or Rushton's (1985, 2000) Differential-K Theory better accounts for general intelligence ("g") in an undergraduate university population (N=192). Owing to the lengthy administration time of the test materials, a newly developed 18-item short form of the Ravens Advanced Progressive Matrices (APM-18; Sefcek, Miller, and Figueredo 2007) was used. A significant, positive relationship between K and F (r = .31, p < .001) emerged. Contrary to predictions, no significant relationships were found between "g" and either K or F (r = -.09, p > or = .05 and r = .11, p > or = .05, respectively). Though generally contrary to both hypotheses, these results may be explained in relation to antagonistic pleiotropy and a potential failure to derive correct predictions for within-species comparisons directly from the results of between-species comparisons. PMID:20589987

  5. A simple model of group selection that cannot be analyzed with inclusive fitness.

    PubMed

    van Veelen, Matthijs; Luo, Shishi; Simon, Burton

    2014-11-01

    A widespread claim in evolutionary theory is that every group selection model can be recast in terms of inclusive fitness. Although there are interesting classes of group selection models for which this is possible, we show that it is not true in general. With a simple set of group selection models, we show two distinct limitations that prevent recasting in terms of inclusive fitness. The first is a limitation across models. We show that if inclusive fitness is to always give the correct prediction, the definition of relatedness needs to change, continuously, along with changes in the parameters of the model. This results in infinitely many different definitions of relatedness - one for every parameter value - which strips relatedness of its meaning. The second limitation is across time. We show that one can find the trajectory for the group selection model by solving a partial differential equation, and that it is mathematically impossible to do this using inclusive fitness. PMID:25034338

  6. On the Use of Nonparametric Item Characteristic Curve Estimation Techniques for Checking Parametric Model Fit

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Young-Sun; Wollack, James A.; Douglas, Jeffrey

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the model fit of a 2PL through comparison with the nonparametric item characteristic curve (ICC) estimation procedures. Results indicate that three nonparametric procedures implemented produced ICCs that are similar to that of the 2PL for items simulated to fit the 2PL. However for misfitting items,…

  7. Covariance Structure Model Fit Testing under Missing Data: An Application of the Supplemented EM Algorithm

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cai, Li; Lee, Taehun

    2009-01-01

    We apply the Supplemented EM algorithm (Meng & Rubin, 1991) to address a chronic problem with the "two-stage" fitting of covariance structure models in the presence of ignorable missing data: the lack of an asymptotically chi-square distributed goodness-of-fit statistic. We show that the Supplemented EM algorithm provides a convenient…

  8. The Relation among Fit Indexes, Power, and Sample Size in Structural Equation Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Kevin H.

    2005-01-01

    The relation among fit indexes, power, and sample size in structural equation modeling is examined. The noncentrality parameter is required to compute power. The 2 existing methods of computing power have estimated the noncentrality parameter by specifying an alternative hypothesis or alternative fit. These methods cannot be implemented easily and…

  9. Characterization of Titan 3-D acoustic pressure spectra by least-squares fit to theoretical model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartnett, E. B.; Carleen, E.

    1980-01-01

    A theoretical model for the acoustic spectra of undeflected rocket plumes is fitted to computed spectra of a Titan III-D at varying times after ignition, by a least-squares method. Tests for the goodness of the fit are made.

  10. An experimentally determined evolutionary model dramatically improves phylogenetic fit.

    PubMed

    Bloom, Jesse D

    2014-08-01

    All modern approaches to molecular phylogenetics require a quantitative model for how genes evolve. Unfortunately, existing evolutionary models do not realistically represent the site-heterogeneous selection that governs actual sequence change. Attempts to remedy this problem have involved augmenting these models with a burgeoning number of free parameters. Here, I demonstrate an alternative: Experimental determination of a parameter-free evolutionary model via mutagenesis, functional selection, and deep sequencing. Using this strategy, I create an evolutionary model for influenza nucleoprotein that describes the gene phylogeny far better than existing models with dozens or even hundreds of free parameters. Emerging high-throughput experimental strategies such as the one employed here provide fundamentally new information that has the potential to transform the sensitivity of phylogenetic and genetic analyses. PMID:24859245

  11. Diploid biological evolution models with general smooth fitness landscapes and recombination.

    PubMed

    Saakian, David B; Kirakosyan, Zara; Hu, Chin-Kun

    2008-06-01

    Using a Hamilton-Jacobi equation approach, we obtain analytic equations for steady-state population distributions and mean fitness functions for Crow-Kimura and Eigen-type diploid biological evolution models with general smooth hypergeometric fitness landscapes. Our numerical solutions of diploid biological evolution models confirm the analytic equations obtained. We also study the parallel diploid model for the simple case of recombination and calculate the variance of distribution, which is consistent with numerical results. PMID:18643300

  12. Individual Differences and Fitting Methods for the Two-Choice Diffusion Model of Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Ratcliff, Roger; Childers, Russ

    2015-01-01

    Methods of fitting the diffusion model were examined with a focus on what the model can tell us about individual differences. Diffusion model parameters were obtained from the fits to data from two experiments and consistency of parameter values, individual differences, and practice effects were examined using different numbers of observations from each subject. Two issues were examined, first, what sizes of differences between groups can be obtained to distinguish between groups and second, what sizes of differences would be needed to find individual subjects that had a deficit relative to a control group. The parameter values from the experiments provided ranges that were used in a simulation study to examine recovery of individual differences. This study used several diffusion model fitting programs, fitting methods, and published packages. In a second simulation study, 64 sets of simulated data from each of 48 sets of parameter values (spanning the range of typical values obtained from fits to data) were fit with the different methods and biases and standard deviations in recovered model parameters were compared across methods. Finally, in a third simulation study, a comparison between a standard chi-square method and a hierarchical Bayesian method was performed. The results from these studies can be used as a starting point for selecting fitting methods and as a basis for understanding the strengths and weaknesses of using diffusion model analyses to examine individual differences in clinical, neuropsychological, and educational testing. PMID:26236754

  13. Fitting Partially Nonlinear Random Coefficient Models as SEMs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harring, Jeffrey R.; Cudeck, Robert; du Toit, Stephen H. C.

    2006-01-01

    The nonlinear random coefficient model has become increasingly popular as a method for describing individual differences in longitudinal research. Although promising, the nonlinear model it is not utilized as often as it might be because software options are still somewhat limited. In this article we show that a specialized version of the model…

  14. Fitting Computational Models to fMRI Data

    PubMed Central

    Ashby, F. Gregory; Waldschmidt, Jennifer G.

    2008-01-01

    Many computational models in psychology predict how neural activation in specific brain regions should change during certain cognitive tasks. The emergence of fMRI as a research tool provides an ideal vehicle to test these predictions. Before such tests are possible, however, significant methodological problems must be solved. These problems include transforming the neural activations predicted by the model into predicted BOLD responses, identifying the voxels within each region of interest against which to test the model, and comparing the observed and predicted BOLD responses in each of these regions. Methods are described for solving each of these problems. PMID:18697666

  15. Fitting degradation of shoreline scarps by a nonlinear diffusion model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Andrews, D.J.; Buckna, R.C.

    1987-01-01

    The diffusion model of degradation of topographic features is a promising means by which vertical offsets on Holocene faults might be dated. In order to calibrate the method, we have examined present-day profiles of wave-cut shoreline scarps of late Pleistocene lakes Bonneville and Lahontan. A table is included that allows easy application of the model to scarps with simple initial shape. -from Authors

  16. Atmospheric Turbulence Modeling for Aero Vehicles: Fractional Order Fits

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kopasakis, George

    2015-01-01

    Atmospheric turbulence models are necessary for the design of both inlet/engine and flight controls, as well as for studying coupling between the propulsion and the vehicle structural dynamics for supersonic vehicles. Models based on the Kolmogorov spectrum have been previously utilized to model atmospheric turbulence. In this paper, a more accurate model is developed in its representative fractional order form, typical of atmospheric disturbances. This is accomplished by first scaling the Kolmogorov spectral to convert them into finite energy von Karman forms and then by deriving an explicit fractional circuit-filter type analog for this model. This circuit model is utilized to develop a generalized formulation in frequency domain to approximate the fractional order with the products of first order transfer functions, which enables accurate time domain simulations. The objective of this work is as follows. Given the parameters describing the conditions of atmospheric disturbances, and utilizing the derived formulations, directly compute the transfer function poles and zeros describing these disturbances for acoustic velocity, temperature, pressure, and density. Time domain simulations of representative atmospheric turbulence can then be developed by utilizing these computed transfer functions together with the disturbance frequencies of interest.

  17. Atmospheric Turbulence Modeling for Aero Vehicles: Fractional Order Fits

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kopasakis, George

    2010-01-01

    Atmospheric turbulence models are necessary for the design of both inlet/engine and flight controls, as well as for studying coupling between the propulsion and the vehicle structural dynamics for supersonic vehicles. Models based on the Kolmogorov spectrum have been previously utilized to model atmospheric turbulence. In this paper, a more accurate model is developed in its representative fractional order form, typical of atmospheric disturbances. This is accomplished by first scaling the Kolmogorov spectral to convert them into finite energy von Karman forms and then by deriving an explicit fractional circuit-filter type analog for this model. This circuit model is utilized to develop a generalized formulation in frequency domain to approximate the fractional order with the products of first order transfer functions, which enables accurate time domain simulations. The objective of this work is as follows. Given the parameters describing the conditions of atmospheric disturbances, and utilizing the derived formulations, directly compute the transfer function poles and zeros describing these disturbances for acoustic velocity, temperature, pressure, and density. Time domain simulations of representative atmospheric turbulence can then be developed by utilizing these computed transfer functions together with the disturbance frequencies of interest.

  18. A no-scale inflationary model to fit them all

    SciTech Connect

    Ellis, John; García, Marcos A.G.; Olive, Keith A.; Nanopoulos, Dimitri V. E-mail: garciagarcia@physics.umn.edu E-mail: olive@physics.umn.edu

    2014-08-01

    The magnitude of B-mode polarization in the cosmic microwave background as measured by BICEP2 favours models of chaotic inflation with a quadratic m{sup 2} φ{sup 2}/2 potential, whereas data from the Planck satellite favour a small value of the tensor-to-scalar perturbation ratio r that is highly consistent with the Starobinsky R +R{sup 2} model. Reality may lie somewhere between these two scenarios. In this paper we propose a minimal two-field no-scale supergravity model that interpolates between quadratic and Starobinsky-like inflation as limiting cases, while retaining the successful prediction n{sub s} ≅ 0.96.

  19. Performance of Transit Model Fitting in Processing Four Years of Kepler Science Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Jie; Burke, Christopher J.; Jenkins, Jon Michael; Quintana, Elisa V.; Rowe, Jason; Seader, Shawn; Tenenbaum, Peter; Twicken, Joseph D.

    2014-06-01

    We present transit model fitting performance of the Kepler Science Operations Center (SOC) Pipeline in processing four years of science data, which were collected by the Kepler spacecraft from May 13, 2009 to May 12, 2013. Threshold Crossing Events (TCEs), which represent transiting planet detections, are generated by the Transiting Planet Search (TPS) component of the pipeline and subsequently processed in the Data Validation (DV) component. The transit model is used in DV to fit TCEs and derive parameters that are used in various diagnostic tests to validate planetary candidates. The standard transit model includes five fit parameters: transit epoch time (i.e. central time of first transit), orbital period, impact parameter, ratio of planet radius to star radius and ratio of semi-major axis to star radius. In the latest Kepler SOC pipeline codebase, the light curve of the target for which a TCE is generated is initially fitted by a trapezoidal model with four parameters: transit epoch time, depth, duration and ingress time. The trapezoidal model fit, implemented with repeated Levenberg-Marquardt minimization, provides a quick and high fidelity assessment of the transit signal. The fit parameters of the trapezoidal model with the minimum chi-square metric are converted to set initial values of the fit parameters of the standard transit model. Additional parameters, such as the equilibrium temperature and effective stellar flux of the planet candidate, are derived from the fit parameters of the standard transit model to characterize pipeline candidates for the search of Earth-size planets in the Habitable Zone. The uncertainties of all derived parameters are updated in the latest codebase to take into account for the propagated errors of the fit parameters as well as the uncertainties in stellar parameters. The results of the transit model fitting of the TCEs identified by the Kepler SOC Pipeline, including fitted and derived parameters, fit goodness metrics and

  20. Design of spatial experiments: Model fitting and prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Fedorov, V.V.

    1996-03-01

    The main objective of the paper is to describe and develop model oriented methods and algorithms for the design of spatial experiments. Unlike many other publications in this area, the approach proposed here is essentially based on the ideas of convex design theory.

  1. Using proper regression methods for fitting the Langmuir model to sorption data

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Langmuir model, originally developed for the study of gas sorption to surfaces, is one of the most commonly used models for fitting phosphorus sorption data. There are good theoretical reasons, however, against applying this model to describe P sorption to soils. Nevertheless, the Langmuir model...

  2. Fitting the Balding-Nichols model to forensic databases.

    PubMed

    Rohlfs, Rori V; Aguiar, Vitor R C; Lohmueller, Kirk E; Castro, Amanda M; Ferreira, Alessandro C S; Almeida, Vanessa C O; Louro, Iuri D; Nielsen, Rasmus

    2015-11-01

    Large forensic databases provide an opportunity to compare observed empirical rates of genotype matching with those expected under forensic genetic models. A number of researchers have taken advantage of this opportunity to validate some forensic genetic approaches, particularly to ensure that estimated rates of genotype matching between unrelated individuals are indeed slight overestimates of those observed. However, these studies have also revealed systematic error trends in genotype probability estimates. In this analysis, we investigate these error trends and show how they result from inappropriate implementation of the Balding-Nichols model in the context of database-wide matching. Specifically, we show that in addition to accounting for increased allelic matching between individuals with recent shared ancestry, studies must account for relatively decreased allelic matching between individuals with more ancient shared ancestry. PMID:26186694

  3. An Alternating Least Squares Algorithm for Fitting the Two- and Three-Way DEDICOM Model and the IDIOSCAL Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kiers, Henk A. L.

    1989-01-01

    An alternating least squares algorithm is offered for fitting the DEcomposition into DIrectional COMponents (DEDICOM) model for representing asymmetric relations among a set of objects via a set of coordinates for the objects on a limited number of dimensions. An algorithm is presented for fitting the IDIOSCAL model in the least squares sense.…

  4. Parameter fitting for piano sound synthesis by physical modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bensa, Julien; Gipouloux, Olivier; Kronland-Martinet, Richard

    2005-07-01

    A difficult issue in the synthesis of piano tones by physical models is to choose the values of the parameters governing the hammer-string model. In fact, these parameters are hard to estimate from static measurements, causing the synthesis sounds to be unrealistic. An original approach that estimates the parameters of a piano model, from the measurement of the string vibration, by minimizing a perceptual criterion is proposed. The minimization process that was used is a combination of a gradient method and a simulated annealing algorithm, in order to avoid convergence problems in case of multiple local minima. The criterion, based on the tristimulus concept, takes into account the spectral energy density in three bands, each allowing particular parameters to be estimated. The optimization process has been run on signals measured on an experimental setup. The parameters thus estimated provided a better sound quality than the one obtained using a global energetic criterion. Both the sound's attack and its brightness were better preserved. This quality gain was obtained for parameter values very close to the initial ones, showing that only slight deviations are necessary to make synthetic sounds closer to the real ones.

  5. A model for programmatic assessment fit for purpose.

    PubMed

    van der Vleuten, C P M; Schuwirth, L W T; Driessen, E W; Dijkstra, J; Tigelaar, D; Baartman, L K J; van Tartwijk, J

    2012-01-01

    We propose a model for programmatic assessment in action, which simultaneously optimises assessment for learning and assessment for decision making about learner progress. This model is based on a set of assessment principles that are interpreted from empirical research. It specifies cycles of training, assessment and learner support activities that are complemented by intermediate and final moments of evaluation on aggregated assessment data points. A key principle is that individual data points are maximised for learning and feedback value, whereas high-stake decisions are based on the aggregation of many data points. Expert judgement plays an important role in the programme. Fundamental is the notion of sampling and bias reduction to deal with the inevitable subjectivity of this type of judgement. Bias reduction is further sought in procedural assessment strategies derived from criteria for qualitative research. We discuss a number of challenges and opportunities around the proposed model. One of its prime virtues is that it enables assessment to move, beyond the dominant psychometric discourse with its focus on individual instruments, towards a systems approach to assessment design underpinned by empirically grounded theory. PMID:22364452

  6. CPOPT : optimization for fitting CANDECOMP/PARAFAC models.

    SciTech Connect

    Dunlavy, Daniel M.; Kolda, Tamara Gibson; Acar, Evrim

    2008-10-01

    Tensor decompositions (e.g., higher-order analogues of matrix decompositions) are powerful tools for data analysis. In particular, the CANDECOMP/PARAFAC (CP) model has proved useful in many applications such chemometrics, signal processing, and web analysis; see for details. The problem of computing the CP decomposition is typically solved using an alternating least squares (ALS) approach. We discuss the use of optimization-based algorithms for CP, including how to efficiently compute the derivatives necessary for the optimization methods. Numerical studies highlight the positive features of our CPOPT algorithms, as compared with ALS and Gauss-Newton approaches.

  7. Modeling epidemics of multidrug-resistant M. tuberculosis of heterogeneous fitness.

    PubMed

    Cohen, Ted; Murray, Megan

    2004-10-01

    Mathematical models have recently been used to predict the future burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDRTB). These models suggest the threat of multidrug resistance to TB control will depend on the relative 'fitness' of MDR strains and imply that if the average fitness of MDR strains is considerably less than that of drug-sensitive strains, the emergence of resistance will not jeopardize the success of tuberculosis control efforts. Multidrug resistance in M. tuberculosis is conferred by the sequential acquisition of a number of different single-locus mutations that have been shown to have heterogeneous phenotypic effects. Here we model the impact of initial fitness estimates on the emergence of MDRTB assuming that the relative fitness of MDR strains is heterogeneous. We find that even when the average relative fitness of MDR strains is low and a well-functioning control program is in place, a small subpopulation of a relatively fit MDR strain may eventually outcompete both the drug-sensitive strains and the less fit MDR strains. These results imply that current epidemiological measures and short-term trends in the burden of MDRTB do not provide evidence that MDRTB strains can be contained in the absence of specific efforts to limit transmission from those with MDR disease. PMID:15378056

  8. Are pollination "syndromes" predictive? Asian dalechampia fit neotropical models.

    PubMed

    Armbruster, W Scott; Gong, Yan-Bing; Huang, Shuang-Quan

    2011-07-01

    Using pollination syndrome parameters and pollinator correlations with floral phenotype from the Neotropics, we predicted that Dalechampia bidentata Blume (Euphorbiaceae) in southern China would be pollinated by female resin-collecting bees between 12 and 20 mm in length. Observations in southwestern Yunnan Province, China, revealed pollination primarily by resin-collecting female Megachile (Callomegachile) faceta Bingham (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae). These bees, at 14 mm in length, were in the predicted size range, confirming the utility of syndromes and models developed in distant regions. Phenotypic selection analyses and estimation of adaptive surfaces and adaptive accuracies together suggest that the blossoms of D. bidentata are well adapted to pollination by their most common floral visitors. PMID:21670584

  9. Adaptation in tunably rugged fitness landscapes: the rough Mount Fuji model.

    PubMed

    Neidhart, Johannes; Szendro, Ivan G; Krug, Joachim

    2014-10-01

    Much of the current theory of adaptation is based on Gillespie's mutational landscape model (MLM), which assumes that the fitness values of genotypes linked by single mutational steps are independent random variables. On the other hand, a growing body of empirical evidence shows that real fitness landscapes, while possessing a considerable amount of ruggedness, are smoother than predicted by the MLM. In the present article we propose and analyze a simple fitness landscape model with tunable ruggedness based on the rough Mount Fuji (RMF) model originally introduced by Aita et al. in the context of protein evolution. We provide a comprehensive collection of results pertaining to the topographical structure of RMF landscapes, including explicit formulas for the expected number of local fitness maxima, the location of the global peak, and the fitness correlation function. The statistics of single and multiple adaptive steps on the RMF landscape are explored mainly through simulations, and the results are compared to the known behavior in the MLM model. Finally, we show that the RMF model can explain the large number of second-step mutations observed on a highly fit first-step background in a recent evolution experiment with a microvirid bacteriophage. PMID:25123507

  10. Adaptation in Tunably Rugged Fitness Landscapes: The Rough Mount Fuji Model

    PubMed Central

    Neidhart, Johannes; Szendro, Ivan G.; Krug, Joachim

    2014-01-01

    Much of the current theory of adaptation is based on Gillespie’s mutational landscape model (MLM), which assumes that the fitness values of genotypes linked by single mutational steps are independent random variables. On the other hand, a growing body of empirical evidence shows that real fitness landscapes, while possessing a considerable amount of ruggedness, are smoother than predicted by the MLM. In the present article we propose and analyze a simple fitness landscape model with tunable ruggedness based on the rough Mount Fuji (RMF) model originally introduced by Aita et al. in the context of protein evolution. We provide a comprehensive collection of results pertaining to the topographical structure of RMF landscapes, including explicit formulas for the expected number of local fitness maxima, the location of the global peak, and the fitness correlation function. The statistics of single and multiple adaptive steps on the RMF landscape are explored mainly through simulations, and the results are compared to the known behavior in the MLM model. Finally, we show that the RMF model can explain the large number of second-step mutations observed on a highly fit first-step background in a recent evolution experiment with a microvirid bacteriophage. PMID:25123507

  11. The fitness effect of mutations across environments: Fisher's geometrical model with multiple optima.

    PubMed

    Martin, Guillaume; Lenormand, Thomas

    2015-06-01

    When are mutations beneficial in one environment and deleterious in another? More generally, what is the relationship between mutation effects across environments? These questions are crucial to predict adaptation in heterogeneous conditions in a broad sense. Empirical evidence documents various patterns of fitness effects across environments but we still lack a framework to analyze these multivariate data. In this article, we extend Fisher's geometrical model to multiple environments determining distinct peaks. We derive the fitness distribution, in one environment, among mutants with a given fitness in another and the bivariate distribution of random mutants' fitnesses across two or more environments. The geometry of the phenotype-fitness landscape is naturally interpreted in terms of fitness trade-offs between environments. These results may be used to fit/predict empirical distributions or to predict the pattern of adaptation across heterogeneous conditions. As an example, we derive the genomic rate of substitution and of adaptation in a metapopulation divided into two distinct habitats in a high migration regime and show that they depend critically on the geometry of the phenotype-fitness landscape. PMID:25908434

  12. Use of a simulated annealing algorithm to fit compartmental models with an application to fractal pharmacokinetics.

    PubMed

    Marsh, Rebeccah E; Riauka, Terence A; McQuarrie, Steve A

    2007-01-01

    Increasingly, fractals are being incorporated into pharmacokinetic models to describe transport and chemical kinetic processes occurring in confined and heterogeneous spaces. However, fractal compartmental models lead to differential equations with power-law time-dependent kinetic rate coefficients that currently are not accommodated by common commercial software programs. This paper describes a parameter optimization method for fitting individual pharmacokinetic curves based on a simulated annealing (SA) algorithm, which always converged towards the global minimum and was independent of the initial parameter values and parameter bounds. In a comparison using a classical compartmental model, similar fits by the Gauss-Newton and Nelder-Mead simplex algorithms required stringent initial estimates and ranges for the model parameters. The SA algorithm is ideal for fitting a wide variety of pharmacokinetic models to clinical data, especially those for which there is weak prior knowledge of the parameter values, such as the fractal models. PMID:17706176

  13. Hall thruster plasma fluctuations identified as the E×B electron drift instability: Modeling and fitting on experimental data

    SciTech Connect

    Cavalier, J.; Lemoine, N.; Bonhomme, G.; Tsikata, S.; Honoré, C.; Grésillon, D.

    2013-08-15

    Microturbulence has been implicated in anomalous transport at the exit of the Hall thruster, and recent simulations have shown the presence of an azimuthal wave which is believed to contribute to the electron axial mobility. In this paper, the 3D dispersion relation of this E×B electron drift instability is numerically solved. The mode is found to resemble an ion acoustic mode for low values of the magnetic field, as long as a non-vanishing component of the wave vector along the magnetic field is considered, and as long as the drift velocity is small compared to the electron thermal velocity. In these conditions, an analytical model of the dispersion relation for the instability is obtained and is shown to adequately describe the mode obtained numerically. This model is then fitted on the experimental dispersion relation obtained from the plasma of a Hall thruster by the collective light scattering diagnostic. The observed frequency-wave vector dependences are found to be similar to the dispersion relation of linear theory, and the fit provides a non-invasive measurement of the electron temperature and density.

  14. Revisiting a Statistical Shortcoming When Fitting the Langmuir Model to Sorption Data

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Langmuir model is commonly used for describing sorption behavior of reactive solutes to surfaces. Fitting the Langmuir model to sorption data requires either the use of nonlinear regression or, alternatively, linear regression using one of the linearized versions of the model. Statistical limit...

  15. Hydrothermal germination models: comparison of two data-fitting approaches with probit optimization

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Probit models for estimating hydrothermal germination rate yield model parameters that have been associated with specific physiological processes. The desirability of linking germination response to seed physiology must be weighed against expectations of model fit and the relative accuracy of predi...

  16. Asymptotic Fitness Distribution in the Bak-Sneppen Model of Biological Evolution with Four Species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schlemm, Eckhard

    2012-08-01

    We suggest a new method to compute the asymptotic fitness distribution in the Bak-Sneppen model of biological evolution. As applications we derive the full asymptotic distribution in the four-species model, and give an explicit linear recurrence relation for a set of coefficients determining the asymptotic distribution in the five-species model.

  17. Modified Likelihood-Based Item Fit Statistics for the Generalized Graded Unfolding Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roberts, James S.

    2008-01-01

    Orlando and Thissen (2000) developed an item fit statistic for binary item response theory (IRT) models known as S-X[superscript 2]. This article generalizes their statistic to polytomous unfolding models. Four alternative formulations of S-X[superscript 2] are developed for the generalized graded unfolding model (GGUM). The GGUM is a…

  18. Spin models inferred from patient-derived viral sequence data faithfully describe HIV fitness landscapes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shekhar, Karthik; Ruberman, Claire F.; Ferguson, Andrew L.; Barton, John P.; Kardar, Mehran; Chakraborty, Arup K.

    2013-12-01

    Mutational escape from vaccine-induced immune responses has thwarted the development of a successful vaccine against AIDS, whose causative agent is HIV, a highly mutable virus. Knowing the virus' fitness as a function of its proteomic sequence can enable rational design of potent vaccines, as this information can focus vaccine-induced immune responses to target mutational vulnerabilities of the virus. Spin models have been proposed as a means to infer intrinsic fitness landscapes of HIV proteins from patient-derived viral protein sequences. These sequences are the product of nonequilibrium viral evolution driven by patient-specific immune responses and are subject to phylogenetic constraints. How can such sequence data allow inference of intrinsic fitness landscapes? We combined computer simulations and variational theory á la Feynman to show that, in most circumstances, spin models inferred from patient-derived viral sequences reflect the correct rank order of the fitness of mutant viral strains. Our findings are relevant for diverse viruses.

  19. EFFICIENT FITTING OF MULTIPLANET KEPLERIAN MODELS TO RADIAL VELOCITY AND ASTROMETRY DATA

    SciTech Connect

    Wright, J. T.; Howard, A. W.

    2009-05-15

    We describe a technique for solving for the orbital elements of multiple planets from radial velocity (RV) and/or astrometric data taken with 1 m s{sup -1} and {mu}as precision, appropriate for efforts to detect Earth-massed planets in their stars' habitable zones, such as NASA's proposed Space Interferometry Mission. We include details of calculating analytic derivatives for use in the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm for the problems of fitting RV and astrometric data separately and jointly. We also explicate the general method of separating the linear and nonlinear components of a model fit in the context of an LM fit, show how explicit derivatives can be calculated in such a model, and demonstrate the speed up and convergence improvements of such a scheme in the case of a five-planet fit to published RV data for 55 Cnc.

  20. Transit Model Fitting in Processing Four Years of Kepler Science Data: New Features and Performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Jie; Burke, Christopher; Jenkins, Jon Michael; Quintana, Elisa; Rowe, Jason; Seader, Shawn; Tenenbaum, Peter; Twicken, Joseph

    2015-08-01

    We present new transit model fitting features and performance of the latest release (9.3, March 2015) of the Kepler Science Operations Center (SOC) Pipeline, which will be used for the final processing of four years of Kepler science data later this year. Threshold Crossing Events (TCEs), which represent transiting planet detections, are generated by the Transiting Planet Search (TPS) component of the pipeline and subsequently processed in the Data Validation (DV) component. The transit model is used in DV to fit TCEs and derive parameters that are used in various diagnostic tests to validate the planet detections. The standard limb-darkened transit model includes five fit parameters: transit epoch time (i.e. central time of first transit), orbital period, impact parameter, ratio of planet radius to star radius and ratio of semi-major axis to star radius. In the latest Kepler SOC pipeline codebase, the light curve of the target for which a TCE is generated is also fitted by a trapezoidal transit model with four parameters: transit epoch time, depth, duration and ratio of ingress time to duration. The fitted trapezoidal transit model is used in the diagnostic tests when the fit with the standard transit model fails or when the fit is not performed, e.g. for suspected eclipsing binaries. Additional parameters, such as the equilibrium temperature and effective stellar flux (i.e. insolation) of the planet candidate, are derived from the transit model fit parameters to characterize pipeline candidates for the search of Earth-size planets in the habitable zone. The uncertainties of all derived parameters are updated in the latest codebase to account for the propagated errors of the fit parameters as well as the uncertainties in stellar parameters. The results of the transit model fitting for the TCEs identified by the Kepler SOC Pipeline are included in the DV reports and one-page report summaries, which are accessible by the science community at NASA Exoplanet Archive

  1. Fitting statistical models in bivariate allometry: scaling metabolic rate to body mass in mustelid carnivores.

    PubMed

    Packard, Gary C

    2013-09-01

    The ongoing debate about methods for fitting the two-parameter allometric equation y=ax(b) to bivariate data seemed to be resolved recently when three groups of investigators independently reported that statistical models fitted by the traditional allometric method (i.e., by back-transforming a linear model fitted to log-log transformations) typically are superior to models fitted by standard nonlinear regression. However, the narrow focus for the statistical analyses in these investigations compromised the most important of the ensuing conclusions. All the investigations focused on two-parameter power functions and excluded from consideration other simple functions that might better describe pattern in the data; and all relied on Akaike's Information Criterion instead of graphical validation to identify the better statistical model. My re-analysis of data from one of the studies (BMR vs. body mass in mustelid carnivores) revealed (1) that the best descriptor for pattern in the dataset is a straight line and not a two-parameter power function; (2) that a model with additive, normal, heteroscedastic error is superior to one with multiplicative, lognormal, heteroscedastic error; and (3) that Akaike's Information Criterion is not a generally reliable metric for discriminating between models fitted to different distributions. These findings have apparent implications for interpreting the outcomes of all three of the aforementioned studies. Future investigations of allometric variation should adopt a more holistic approach to analysis and not be wedded to the traditional allometric method. PMID:23688506

  2. Unifying distance-based goodness-of-fit indicators for hydrologic model assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Qinbo; Reinhardt-Imjela, Christian; Chen, Xi; Schulte, Achim

    2014-05-01

    The goodness-of-fit indicator, i.e. efficiency criterion, is very important for model calibration. However, recently the knowledge about the goodness-of-fit indicators is all empirical and lacks a theoretical support. Based on the likelihood theory, a unified distance-based goodness-of-fit indicator termed BC-GED model is proposed, which uses the Box-Cox (BC) transformation to remove the heteroscedasticity of model errors and the generalized error distribution (GED) with zero-mean to fit the distribution of model errors after BC. The BC-GED model can unify all recent distance-based goodness-of-fit indicators, and reveals the mean square error (MSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) that are widely used goodness-of-fit indicators imply statistic assumptions that the model errors follow the Gaussian distribution and the Laplace distribution with zero-mean, respectively. The empirical knowledge about goodness-of-fit indicators can be also easily interpreted by BC-GED model, e.g. the sensitivity to high flow of the goodness-of-fit indicators with large power of model errors results from the low probability of large model error in the assumed distribution of these indicators. In order to assess the effect of the parameters (i.e. the BC transformation parameter λ and the GED kurtosis coefficient β also termed the power of model errors) of BC-GED model on hydrologic model calibration, six cases of BC-GED model were applied in Baocun watershed (East China) with SWAT-WB-VSA model. Comparison of the inferred model parameters and model simulation results among the six indicators demonstrates these indicators can be clearly separated two classes by the GED kurtosis β: β >1 and β ≤ 1. SWAT-WB-VSA calibrated by the class β >1 of distance-based goodness-of-fit indicators captures high flow very well and mimics the baseflow very badly, but it calibrated by the class β ≤ 1 mimics the baseflow very well, because first the larger value of β, the greater emphasis is put on

  3. Soft X-ray spectral fits of Geminga with model neutron star atmospheres

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meyer, R. D.; Pavlov, G. G.; Meszaros, P.

    1994-01-01

    The spectrum of the soft X-ray pulsar Geminga consists of two components, a softer one which can be interpreted as thermal-like radiation from the surface of the neutron star, and a harder one interpreted as radiation from a polar cap heated by relativistic particles. We have fitted the soft spectrum using a detailed magnetized hydrogen atmosphere model. The fitting parameters are the hydrogen column density, the effective temperature T(sub eff), the gravitational redshift z, and the distance to radius ratio, for different values of the magnetic field B. The best fits for this model are obtained when B less than or approximately 1 x 10(exp 12) G and z lies on the upper boundary of the explored range (z = 0.45). The values of T(sub eff) approximately = (2-3) x 10(exp 5) K are a factor of 2-3 times lower than the value of T(sub eff) obtained for blackbody fits with the same z. The lower T(sub eff) increases the compatibility with some proposed schemes for fast neutrino cooling of neutron stars (NSs) by the direct Urca process or by exotic matter, but conventional cooling cannot be excluded. The hydrogen atmosphere fits also imply a smaller distance to Geminga than that inferred from a blackbody fit. An accurate evaluation of the distance would require a better knowledge of the ROSAT Position Sensitive Proportional Counter (PSPC) response to the low-energy region of the incident spectrum. Our modeling of the soft component with a cooler magnetized atmosphere also implies that the hard-component fit requires a characteristic temperature which is higher (by a factor of approximately 2-3) and a surface area which is smaller (by a factor of 10(exp 3), compared to previous blackbody fits.

  4. Fast numerical algorithms for fitting multiresolution hybrid shape models to brain MRI.

    PubMed

    Vemuri, B C; Guo, Y; Lai, S H; Leonard, C M

    1997-09-01

    In this paper, we present new and fast numerical algorithms for shape recovery from brain MRI using multiresolution hybrid shape models. In this modeling framework, shapes are represented by a core rigid shape characterized by a superquadric function and a superimposed displacement function which is characterized by a membrane spline discretized using the finite-element method. Fitting the model to brain MRI data is cast as an energy minimization problem which is solved numerically. We present three new computational methods for model fitting to data. These methods involve novel mathematical derivations that lead to efficient numerical solutions of the model fitting problem. The first method involves using the nonlinear conjugate gradient technique with a diagonal Hessian preconditioner. The second method involves the nonlinear conjugate gradient in the outer loop for solving global parameters of the model and a preconditioned conjugate gradient scheme for solving the local parameters of the model. The third method involves the nonlinear conjugate gradient in the outer loop for solving the global parameters and a combination of the Schur complement formula and the alternating direction-implicit method for solving the local parameters of the model. We demonstrate the efficiency of our model fitting methods via experiments on several MR brain scans. PMID:9873915

  5. Development and design of a late-model fitness test instrument based on LabView

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Ying; Wu, Feiqing

    2010-12-01

    Undergraduates are pioneers of China's modernization program and undertake the historic mission of rejuvenating our nation in the 21st century, whose physical fitness is vital. A smart fitness test system can well help them understand their fitness and health conditions, thus they can choose more suitable approaches and make practical plans for exercising according to their own situation. following the future trends, a Late-model fitness test Instrument based on LabView has been designed to remedy defects of today's instruments. The system hardware consists of fives types of sensors with their peripheral circuits, an acquisition card of NI USB-6251 and a computer, while the system software, on the basis of LabView, includes modules of user register, data acquisition, data process and display, and data storage. The system, featured by modularization and an open structure, is able to be revised according to actual needs. Tests results have verified the system's stability and reliability.

  6. Posterior predictive checks to quantify lack-of-fit in admixture models of latent population structure

    PubMed Central

    Mimno, David; Blei, David M.; Engelhardt, Barbara E.

    2015-01-01

    Admixture models are a ubiquitous approach to capture latent population structure in genetic samples. Despite the widespread application of admixture models, little thought has been devoted to the quality of the model fit or the accuracy of the estimates of parameters of interest for a particular study. Here we develop methods for validating admixture models based on posterior predictive checks (PPCs), a Bayesian method for assessing the quality of fit of a statistical model to a specific dataset. We develop PPCs for five population-level statistics of interest: within-population genetic variation, background linkage disequilibrium, number of ancestral populations, between-population genetic variation, and the downstream use of admixture parameters to correct for population structure in association studies. Using PPCs, we evaluate the quality of the admixture model fit to four qualitatively different population genetic datasets: the population reference sample (POPRES) European individuals, the HapMap phase 3 individuals, continental Indians, and African American individuals. We found that the same model fitted to different genomic studies resulted in highly study-specific results when evaluated using PPCs, illustrating the utility of PPCs for model-based analyses in large genomic studies. PMID:26071445

  7. An Assessment of the Nonparametric Approach for Evaluating the Fit of Item Response Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liang, Tie; Wells, Craig S.; Hambleton, Ronald K.

    2014-01-01

    As item response theory has been more widely applied, investigating the fit of a parametric model becomes an important part of the measurement process. There is a lack of promising solutions to the detection of model misfit in IRT. Douglas and Cohen introduced a general nonparametric approach, RISE (Root Integrated Squared Error), for detecting…

  8. Posterior predictive checks to quantify lack-of-fit in admixture models of latent population structure.

    PubMed

    Mimno, David; Blei, David M; Engelhardt, Barbara E

    2015-06-30

    Admixture models are a ubiquitous approach to capture latent population structure in genetic samples. Despite the widespread application of admixture models, little thought has been devoted to the quality of the model fit or the accuracy of the estimates of parameters of interest for a particular study. Here we develop methods for validating admixture models based on posterior predictive checks (PPCs), a Bayesian method for assessing the quality of fit of a statistical model to a specific dataset. We develop PPCs for five population-level statistics of interest: within-population genetic variation, background linkage disequilibrium, number of ancestral populations, between-population genetic variation, and the downstream use of admixture parameters to correct for population structure in association studies. Using PPCs, we evaluate the quality of the admixture model fit to four qualitatively different population genetic datasets: the population reference sample (POPRES) European individuals, the HapMap phase 3 individuals, continental Indians, and African American individuals. We found that the same model fitted to different genomic studies resulted in highly study-specific results when evaluated using PPCs, illustrating the utility of PPCs for model-based analyses in large genomic studies. PMID:26071445

  9. Detecting Growth Shape Misspecifications in Latent Growth Models: An Evaluation of Fit Indexes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leite, Walter L.; Stapleton, Laura M.

    2011-01-01

    In this study, the authors compared the likelihood ratio test and fit indexes for detection of misspecifications of growth shape in latent growth models through a simulation study and a graphical analysis. They found that the likelihood ratio test, MFI, and root mean square error of approximation performed best for detecting model misspecification…

  10. A Short Commentary on "Where Does Creativity Fit into a Productivist Industrial Model of Knowledge Production?"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gentry, Marcia

    2010-01-01

    This article presents the author's brief comment on Hisham B. Ghassib's "Where Does Creativity Fit into a Productivist Industrial Model of Knowledge Production?" Ghassib (2010) takes the reader through an interesting history of human innovation and processes and situates his theory within a productivist model. The deliberate attention to…

  11. Optimization-Based Model Fitting for Latent Class and Latent Profile Analyses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huang, Guan-Hua; Wang, Su-Mei; Hsu, Chung-Chu

    2011-01-01

    Statisticians typically estimate the parameters of latent class and latent profile models using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm. This paper proposes an alternative two-stage approach to model fitting. The first stage uses the modified k-means and hierarchical clustering algorithms to identify the latent classes that best satisfy the…

  12. Shot model parameters for Cygnus X-1 through phase portrait fitting

    SciTech Connect

    Lochner, J.C.; Swank, J.H.; Szymkowiak, A.E. )

    1991-07-01

    Shot models for systems having about 1/f power density spectrum are developed by utilizing a distribution of shot durations. Parameters of the distribution are determined by fitting the power spectrum either with analytic forms for the spectrum of a shot model with a given shot profile, or with the spectrum derived from numerical realizations of trial shot models. The shot fraction is specified by fitting the phase portrait, which is a plot of intensity at a given time versus intensity at a delayed time and in principle is sensitive to different shot profiles. These techniques have been extensively applied to the X-ray variability of Cygnus X-1, using HEAO 1 A-2 and an Exosat ME observation. The power spectra suggest models having characteristic shot durations lasting from milliseconds to a few seconds, while the phase portrait fits give shot fractions of about 50 percent. Best fits to the portraits are obtained if the amplitude of the shot is a power-law function of the duration of the shot. These fits prefer shots having a symmetric exponential rise and decay. Results are interpreted in terms of a distribution of magnetic flares in the accretion disk. 30 refs.

  13. The Predicting Model of E-commerce Site Based on the Ideas of Curve Fitting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, Zhang; Li, Zhang; Dingjun, Chen

    On the basis of the idea of the second multiplication curve fitting, the number and scale of Chinese E-commerce site is analyzed. A preventing increase model is introduced in this paper, and the model parameters are solved by the software of Matlab. The validity of the preventing increase model is confirmed though the numerical experiment. The experimental results show that the precision of preventing increase model is ideal.

  14. Curve fitting toxicity test data: Which comes first, the dose response or the model?

    SciTech Connect

    Gully, J.; Baird, R.; Bottomley, J.

    1995-12-31

    The probit model frequently does not fit the concentration-response curve of NPDES toxicity test data and non-parametric models must be used instead. The non-parametric models, trimmed Spearman-Karber, IC{sub p}, and linear interpolation, all require a monotonic concentration-response. Any deviation from a monotonic response is smoothed to obtain the desired concentration-response characteristics. Inaccurate point estimates may result from such procedures and can contribute to imprecision in replicate tests. The following study analyzed reference toxicant and effluent data from giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera), purple sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus), red abalone (Haliotis rufescens), and fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) bioassays using commercially available curve fitting software. The purpose was to search for alternative parametric models which would reduce the use of non-parametric models for point estimate analysis of toxicity data. Two non-linear models, power and logistic dose-response, were selected as possible alternatives to the probit model based upon their toxicological plausibility and ability to model most data sets examined. Unlike non-parametric procedures, these and all parametric models can be statistically evaluated for fit and significance. The use of the power or logistic dose response models increased the percentage of parametric model fits for each protocol and toxicant combination examined. The precision of the selected non-linear models was also compared with the EPA recommended point estimation models at several effect.levels. In general, precision of the alternative models was equal to or better than the traditional methods. Finally, use of the alternative models usually produced more plausible point estimates in data sets where the effects of smoothing and non-parametric modeling made the point estimate results suspect.

  15. Optimization of Active Muscle Force-Length Models Using Least Squares Curve Fitting.

    PubMed

    Mohammed, Goran Abdulrahman; Hou, Ming

    2016-03-01

    The objective of this paper is to propose an asymmetric Gaussian function as an alternative to the existing active force-length models, and to optimize this model along with several other existing models by using the least squares curve fitting method. The minimal set of coefficients is identified for each of these models to facilitate the least squares curve fitting. Sarcomere simulated data and one set of rabbits extensor digitorum II experimental data are used to illustrate optimal curve fitting of the selected force-length functions. The results shows that all the curves fit reasonably well with the simulated and experimental data, while the Gordon-Huxley-Julian model and asymmetric Gaussian function are better than other functions in terms of statistical test scores root mean squared error and R-squared. However, the differences in RMSE scores are insignificant (0.3-6%) for simulated data and (0.2-5%) for experimental data. The proposed asymmetric Gaussian model and the method of parametrization of this and the other force-length models mentioned above can be used in the studies on active force-length relationships of skeletal muscles that generate forces to cause movements of human and animal bodies. PMID:26276984

  16. Soluble Model of Evolution and Extinction Dynamics in a Rugged Fitness Landscape

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sibani, Paolo

    1997-08-01

    We consider a continuum version of a previously introduced and numerically studied model of macroevolution [P. Sibani, M. R. Schimdt, and P. Alstrøm, Phys. Rev. Lett. 75, 2055 (1995)] in which agents evolve by an optimization process in a rugged fitness landscape and die due to their competitive interactions. We first formulate dynamical equations for the fitness distribution and the survival probability. Secondly, we analytically derive the t-2 law which characterizes the lifetime distribution of biological genera. Thirdly, we discuss other dynamical properties of the model as the rate of extinction and conclude with a brief discussion.

  17. The FIT 2.0 Model - Fuel-cycle Integration and Tradeoffs

    SciTech Connect

    Steven J. Piet; Nick R. Soelberg; Layne F. Pincock; Eric L. Shaber; Gregory M Teske

    2011-06-01

    All mass streams from fuel separation and fabrication are products that must meet some set of product criteria – fuel feedstock impurity limits, waste acceptance criteria (WAC), material storage (if any), or recycle material purity requirements such as zirconium for cladding or lanthanides for industrial use. These must be considered in a systematic and comprehensive way. The FIT model and the “system losses study” team that developed it [Shropshire2009, Piet2010b] are steps by the Fuel Cycle Technology program toward an analysis that accounts for the requirements and capabilities of each fuel cycle component, as well as major material flows within an integrated fuel cycle. This will help the program identify near-term R&D needs and set longer-term goals. This report describes FIT 2, an update of the original FIT model.[Piet2010c] FIT is a method to analyze different fuel cycles; in particular, to determine how changes in one part of a fuel cycle (say, fuel burnup, cooling, or separation efficiencies) chemically affect other parts of the fuel cycle. FIT provides the following: Rough estimate of physics and mass balance feasibility of combinations of technologies. If feasibility is an issue, it provides an estimate of how performance would have to change to achieve feasibility. Estimate of impurities in fuel and impurities in waste as function of separation performance, fuel fabrication, reactor, uranium source, etc.

  18. Fitting the linear quadratic model to detailed data sets for different dose ranges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia, L. M.; Leblanc, J.; Wilkins, D.; Raaphorst, G. P.

    2006-06-01

    Survival curve behaviour and degree of correspondence between the linear-quadratic (LQ) model and experimental data in an extensive dose range for high dose rates were analysed. Detailed clonogenic assays with irradiation given in 0.5 Gy increments and a total dose range varying from 10.5 to 16 Gy were performed. The cell lines investigated were: CHOAA8 (Chinese hamster fibroblast cells), U373MG (human glioblastoma cells), CP3 and DU145 (human prostate carcinoma cell lines). The analyses were based on χ2-statistics and Monte Carlo simulation of the experiments. A decline of LQ fit quality at very low doses (<2 Gy) is observed. This result can be explained by the hypersensitive effect observed in CHOAA8, U373MG and DU145 data and an adaptive-type response in the CP3 cell line. A clear improvement of the fit is discerned by removing the low dose data points. The fit worsening at high doses also shows that LQ cannot explain this region. This shows that the LQ model fits better the middle dose region of the survival curve. The analysis conducted in our study reveals a dose dependency of the LQ fit in different cell lines.

  19. Testing the Fitness Consequences of the Thermoregulatory and Parental Care Models for the Origin of Endothermy

    PubMed Central

    Clavijo-Baque, Sabrina; Bozinovic, Francisco

    2012-01-01

    The origin of endothermy is a puzzling phenomenon in the evolution of vertebrates. To address this issue several explicative models have been proposed. The main models proposed for the origin of endothermy are the aerobic capacity, the thermoregulatory and the parental care models. Our main proposal is that to compare the alternative models, a critical aspect is to determine how strongly natural selection was influenced by body temperature, and basal and maximum metabolic rates during the evolution of endothermy. We evaluate these relationships in the context of three main hypotheses aimed at explaining the evolution of endothermy, namely the parental care hypothesis and two hypotheses related to the thermoregulatory model (thermogenic capacity and higher body temperature models). We used data on basal and maximum metabolic rates and body temperature from 17 rodent populations, and used intrinsic population growth rate (Rmax) as a global proxy of fitness. We found greater support for the thermogenic capacity model of the thermoregulatory model. In other words, greater thermogenic capacity is associated with increased fitness in rodent populations. To our knowledge, this is the first test of the fitness consequences of the thermoregulatory and parental care models for the origin of endothermy. PMID:22606328

  20. A Comparison of Isoconversional and Model-Fitting Approaches to Kinetic Parameter Estimation and Application Predictions

    SciTech Connect

    Burnham, A K

    2006-05-17

    Chemical kinetic modeling has been used for many years in process optimization, estimating real-time material performance, and lifetime prediction. Chemists have tended towards developing detailed mechanistic models, while engineers have tended towards global or lumped models. Many, if not most, applications use global models by necessity, since it is impractical or impossible to develop a rigorous mechanistic model. Model fitting acquired a bad name in the thermal analysis community after that community realized a decade after other disciplines that deriving kinetic parameters for an assumed model from a single heating rate produced unreliable and sometimes nonsensical results. In its place, advanced isoconversional methods (1), which have their roots in the Friedman (2) and Ozawa-Flynn-Wall (3) methods of the 1960s, have become increasingly popular. In fact, as pointed out by the ICTAC kinetics project in 2000 (4), valid kinetic parameters can be derived by both isoconversional and model fitting methods as long as a diverse set of thermal histories are used to derive the kinetic parameters. The current paper extends the understanding from that project to give a better appreciation of the strengths and weaknesses of isoconversional and model-fitting approaches. Examples are given from a variety of sources, including the former and current ICTAC round-robin exercises, data sets for materials of interest, and simulated data sets.

  1. Aeroelastic modeling for the FIT team F/A-18 simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zeiler, Thomas A.; Wieseman, Carol D.

    1989-01-01

    Some details of the aeroelastic modeling of the F/A-18 aircraft done for the Functional Integration Technology (FIT) team's research in integrated dynamics modeling and how these are combined with the FIT team's integrated dynamics model are described. Also described are mean axis corrections to elastic modes, the addition of nonlinear inertial coupling terms into the equations of motion, and the calculation of internal loads time histories using the integrated dynamics model in a batch simulation program. A video tape made of a loads time history animation was included as a part of the oral presentation. Also discussed is work done in one of the areas of unsteady aerodynamic modeling identified as needing improvement, specifically, in correction factor methodologies for improving the accuracy of stability derivatives calculated with a doublet lattice code.

  2. Model fitting of the kinematics of ten superluminal components in blazar 3C 279

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qian, Shan-Jie

    2013-07-01

    The kinematics of ten superluminal components (C11- C16, C18, C20, C21 and C24) of blazar 3C 279 are studied from VLBI observations. It is shown that their initial trajectory, distance from the core and apparent speed can be well fitted by the precession model proposed by Qian. Combined with the results of the model fit for the six superluminal components (C3, C4, C7a, C8, C9 and C10) already published, the kinematics of sixteen superluminal components can now be consistently interpreted in the precession scenario with their ejection times spanning more than 25 yr (or more than one precession period). The results from model fitting show the possible existence of a common precessing trajectory for these knots within a projected core distance of ~0.2-0.4 mas. In the framework of the jet-precession scenario, we can, for the first time, identify three classes of trajectories which are characterized by their collimation parameters. These different trajectories could be related to the helical structure of magnetic fields in the jet. Through fitting the model, the bulk Lorentz factor, Doppler factor and viewing angle of these knots are derived. It is found that there is no evidence for any correlation between the bulk Lorentz factor of the components and their precession phase (or ejection time). In a companion paper, the kinematics of another seven components (C5a, C6, C7, C17, C19, C22 and C23) have been derived from model fitting, and a binary black-hole/jet scenario was envisaged. The precession model proposed by Qian would be useful for understanding the kinematics of superluminal components in blazar 3C 279 derived from VLBI observations, by disentangling different mechanisms and ingredients. More generally, it might also be helpful for studying the mechanism of jet swing (wobbling) in other blazars.

  3. Impact of Missing Data on Person-Model Fit and Person Trait Estimation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Bo; Walker, Cindy M.

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to examine the effects of missing data on person-model fit and person trait estimation in tests with dichotomous items. Under the missing-completely-at-random framework, four missing data treatment techniques were investigated including pairwise deletion, coding missing responses as incorrect, hotdeck imputation,…

  4. Critique of "Where Does Creativity Fit into a Productivist Industrial Model of Knowledge Production?"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harris, Carole Ruth

    2010-01-01

    This article presents the author's comments on Hisham Ghassib's article entitled "Where Does Creativity Fit into a Productivist Industrial Model of Knowledge Production?" In his article, Ghassib (2010) provides an overview of the philosophical foundations that led to exact science, its role in what was later to become a driving force in the modern…

  5. A Bayesian Approach to Person Fit Analysis in Item Response Theory Models. Research Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glas, Cees A. W.; Meijer, Rob R.

    A Bayesian approach to the evaluation of person fit in item response theory (IRT) models is presented. In a posterior predictive check, the observed value on a discrepancy variable is positioned in its posterior distribution. In a Bayesian framework, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure can be used to generate samples of the posterior distribution…

  6. IRT Model Fit Evaluation from Theory to Practice: Progress and Some Unanswered Questions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cai, Li; Monroe, Scott

    2013-01-01

    In this commentary, the authors congratulate Professor Alberto Maydeu-Olivares on his article [EJ1023617: "Goodness-of-Fit Assessment of Item Response Theory Models, Measurement: Interdisciplinary Research and Perspectives," this issue] as it provides a much needed overview on the mathematical underpinnings of the theory behind the…

  7. Universal Screening for Emotional and Behavioral Problems: Fitting a Population-Based Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schanding, G. Thomas, Jr.; Nowell, Kerri P.

    2013-01-01

    Schools have begun to adopt a population-based method to conceptualizing assessment and intervention of students; however, little empirical evidence has been gathered to support this shift in service delivery. The present study examined the fit of a population-based model in identifying students' behavioral and emotional functioning using a…

  8. Examining Creative Performance in the Workplace through a Person-Environment Fit Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Puccio, Gerard J.; Talbot, Reginald J.; Joniak, Andrew J.

    2000-01-01

    A modified version of Kirton's Adaptor-Innovator Inventory was used to operationalize the person-environment fit model and a self-report measure was used to assess creative productivity in 40 British adults. Results indicate that style match between the individual and the environment was associated with higher levels of product novelty and…

  9. On Fitting Nonlinear Latent Curve Models to Multiple Variables Measured Longitudinally

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blozis, Shelley A.

    2007-01-01

    This article shows how nonlinear latent curve models may be fitted for simultaneous analysis of multiple variables measured longitudinally using Mx statistical software. Longitudinal studies often involve observation of several variables across time with interest in the associations between change characteristics of different variables measured…

  10. Longitudinal Changes in Physical Fitness Performance in Youth: A Multilevel Latent Growth Curve Modeling Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Chee Keng John; Pyun, Do Young; Liu, Woon Chia; Lim, Boon San Coral; Li, Fuzhong

    2013-01-01

    Using a multilevel latent growth curve modeling (LGCM) approach, this study examined longitudinal change in levels of physical fitness performance over time (i.e. four years) in young adolescents aged from 12-13 years. The sample consisted of 6622 students from 138 secondary schools in Singapore. Initial analyses found between-school variation on…

  11. Super Kids--Superfit. A Comprehensive Fitness Intervention Model for Elementary Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Virgilio, Stephen J.; Berenson, Gerald S.

    1988-01-01

    Objectives and activities of the cardiovascular (CV) fitness program Super Kids--Superfit are related in this article. This exercise program is one component of the Heart Smart Program, a CV health intervention model for elementary school students. Program evaluation, parent education, and school and community intervention strategies are…

  12. Assessing item fit for unidimensional item response theory models using residuals from estimated item response functions.

    PubMed

    Haberman, Shelby J; Sinharay, Sandip; Chon, Kyong Hee

    2013-07-01

    Residual analysis (e.g. Hambleton & Swaminathan, Item response theory: principles and applications, Kluwer Academic, Boston, 1985; Hambleton, Swaminathan, & Rogers, Fundamentals of item response theory, Sage, Newbury Park, 1991) is a popular method to assess fit of item response theory (IRT) models. We suggest a form of residual analysis that may be applied to assess item fit for unidimensional IRT models. The residual analysis consists of a comparison of the maximum-likelihood estimate of the item characteristic curve with an alternative ratio estimate of the item characteristic curve. The large sample distribution of the residual is proved to be standardized normal when the IRT model fits the data. We compare the performance of our suggested residual to the standardized residual of Hambleton et al. (Fundamentals of item response theory, Sage, Newbury Park, 1991) in a detailed simulation study. We then calculate our suggested residuals using data from an operational test. The residuals appear to be useful in assessing the item fit for unidimensional IRT models. PMID:25106393

  13. Comments on Ghassib's "Where Does Creativity Fit into a Productivist Industrial Model of Knowledge Production?"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCluskey, Ken W.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents the author's comments on Hisham B. Ghassib's "Where Does Creativity Fit into a Productivist Industrial Model of Knowledge Production?" Ghassib's article focuses on the transformation of science from pre-modern times to the present. Ghassib (2010) notes that, unlike in an earlier era when the economy depended on static…

  14. Review of Hisham Ghassib: Where Does Creativity Fit into the Productivist Industrial Model of Knowledge Production?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neber, Heinz

    2010-01-01

    In this article, the author presents his comments on Hisham Ghassib's article entitled "Where Does Creativity Fit into the Productivist Industrial Model of Knowledge Production?" Ghassib (2010) describes historical transformations of science from a marginal and non-autonomous activity which had been constrained by traditions to a self-autonomous,…

  15. Small-Sample Robust Estimators of Noncentrality-Based and Incremental Model Fit

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Herzog, Walter; Boomsma, Anne

    2009-01-01

    Traditional estimators of fit measures based on the noncentral chi-square distribution (root mean square error of approximation [RMSEA], Steiger's [gamma], etc.) tend to overreject acceptable models when the sample size is small. To handle this problem, it is proposed to employ Bartlett's (1950), Yuan's (2005), or Swain's (1975) correction of the…

  16. Hybrid fitting of a hydrosystem model: Long-term insight into the Beauce aquifer functioning (France)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flipo, N.; Monteil, C.; Poulin, M.; de Fouquet, C.; Krimissa, M.

    2012-05-01

    This study aims at analyzing the water budget of the unconfined Beauce aquifer (8000 km2) over a 35 year period, by modeling the hydrological functioning and quantifying exchanged water fluxes inside the system. A distributed process-based model (DPBM) is implemented to model the surface, the unsaturated zone and the aquifer subsystems. Based on an extensive literature review on multiparameter optimization and inverse problem, a pragmatic hybrid fitting method that couples manual and automatic calibration is developed. Three data subsets are used for calibration (10 year), validation (10 year) and test (35 year). The global piezometric head root-mean-square error is around 2.5 m for the three subsets and is rather uniformly spatially distributed over 78 piezometers. The sensitivity of the simulation to the different steps of the calibration process is investigated. The transmissivity field permits the fitting of the low-frequency signal for long-term filtering of the recharge signal, whereas the storage coefficient filters the signal with a higher frequency. For long-term insight into aquifer system functioning, the priority is thus to first fit the transmissivity field and to assess the distributed aquifer recharge accurately. The fitted DPBM, coupled with a linear model of coregionalization, is then used to quantify the hydrosystem water mass balance between 1974 and 2009, indicating that there is yet no trend of water resources decrease neither due to climate nor to human activities.

  17. A Nonparametric Approach for Assessing Goodness-of-Fit of IRT Models in a Mixed Format Test

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liang, Tie; Wells, Craig S.

    2015-01-01

    Investigating the fit of a parametric model plays a vital role in validating an item response theory (IRT) model. An area that has received little attention is the assessment of multiple IRT models used in a mixed-format test. The present study extends the nonparametric approach, proposed by Douglas and Cohen (2001), to assess model fit of three…

  18. Estimation of heart rate and heart rate variability from pulse oximeter recordings using localized model fitting.

    PubMed

    Wadehn, Federico; Carnal, David; Loeliger, Hans-Andrea

    2015-08-01

    Heart rate variability is one of the key parameters for assessing the health status of a subject's cardiovascular system. This paper presents a local model fitting algorithm used for finding single heart beats in photoplethysmogram recordings. The local fit of exponentially decaying cosines of frequencies within the physiological range is used to detect the presence of a heart beat. Using 42 subjects from the CapnoBase database, the average heart rate error was 0.16 BPM and the standard deviation of the absolute estimation error was 0.24 BPM. PMID:26737125

  19. Modeling of pharmaceuticals mixtures toxicity with deviation ratio and best-fit functions models.

    PubMed

    Wieczerzak, Monika; Kudłak, Błażej; Yotova, Galina; Nedyalkova, Miroslava; Tsakovski, Stefan; Simeonov, Vasil; Namieśnik, Jacek

    2016-11-15

    The present study deals with assessment of ecotoxicological parameters of 9 drugs (diclofenac (sodium salt), oxytetracycline hydrochloride, fluoxetine hydrochloride, chloramphenicol, ketoprofen, progesterone, estrone, androstenedione and gemfibrozil), present in the environmental compartments at specific concentration levels, and their mutual combinations by couples against Microtox® and XenoScreen YES/YAS® bioassays. As the quantitative assessment of ecotoxicity of drug mixtures is an complex and sophisticated topic in the present study we have used two major approaches to gain specific information on the mutual impact of two separate drugs present in a mixture. The first approach is well documented in many toxicological studies and follows the procedure for assessing three types of models, namely concentration addition (CA), independent action (IA) and simple interaction (SI) by calculation of a model deviation ratio (MDR) for each one of the experiments carried out. The second approach used was based on the assumption that the mutual impact in each mixture of two drugs could be described by a best-fit model function with calculation of weight (regression coefficient or other model parameter) for each of the participants in the mixture or by correlation analysis. It was shown that the sign and the absolute value of the weight or the correlation coefficient could be a reliable measure for the impact of either drug A on drug B or, vice versa, of B on A. Results of studies justify the statement, that both of the approaches show similar assessment of the mode of mutual interaction of the drugs studied. It was found that most of the drug mixtures exhibit independent action and quite few of the mixtures show synergic or dependent action. PMID:27479466

  20. Phylogenetic Tree Reconstruction Accuracy and Model Fit when Proportions of Variable Sites Change across the Tree

    PubMed Central

    Grievink, Liat Shavit; Penny, David; Hendy, Michael D.; Holland, Barbara R.

    2010-01-01

    Commonly used phylogenetic models assume a homogeneous process through time in all parts of the tree. However, it is known that these models can be too simplistic as they do not account for nonhomogeneous lineage-specific properties. In particular, it is now widely recognized that as constraints on sequences evolve, the proportion and positions of variable sites can vary between lineages causing heterotachy. The extent to which this model misspecification affects tree reconstruction is still unknown. Here, we evaluate the effect of changes in the proportions and positions of variable sites on model fit and tree estimation. We consider 5 current models of nucleotide sequence evolution in a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo framework as well as maximum parsimony (MP). We show that for a tree with 4 lineages where 2 nonsister taxa undergo a change in the proportion of variable sites tree reconstruction under the best-fitting model, which is chosen using a relative test, often results in the wrong tree. In this case, we found that an absolute test of model fit is a better predictor of tree estimation accuracy. We also found further evidence that MP is not immune to heterotachy. In addition, we show that increased sampling of taxa that have undergone a change in proportion and positions of variable sites is critical for accurate tree reconstruction. PMID:20525636

  1. Empirical wind models from detailed UV-line FITS - Tau Scorpii

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamann, W.-R.

    Lamers and Rogerson (1978) have conducted a study of the main-sequence BO star Tau Sco. However, the line formation was calculated according to the Sobolev approximation method, and the line fit was, therefore, restricted to the blue wings of the UV resonance lines. The present investigation of this star is based on an employment of the comoving-frame (CMF) method, which was extended to the treatment of overlapping doublets. It has been shown by Hamann (1980) that the results of the CMF method may differ considerably from those of the Sobolev procedure. It is found in the current investigation that the observed UV resonance lines of Tau Sco are well reproduced by theoretical profiles. The CMF calculations allow for a fit of the entire profile range and a correct treatment of the doublets. An empirical model which distinguishes three zones is derived. The line fits firmly establish a large microturbulence of 100 km/s in zones I and II.

  2. Brain MRI Tumor Detection using Active Contour Model and Local Image Fitting Energy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nabizadeh, Nooshin; John, Nigel

    2014-03-01

    Automatic abnormality detection in Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) is an important issue in many diagnostic and therapeutic applications. Here an automatic brain tumor detection method is introduced that uses T1-weighted images and K. Zhang et. al.'s active contour model driven by local image fitting (LIF) energy. Local image fitting energy obtains the local image information, which enables the algorithm to segment images with intensity inhomogeneities. Advantage of this method is that the LIF energy functional has less computational complexity than the local binary fitting (LBF) energy functional; moreover, it maintains the sub-pixel accuracy and boundary regularization properties. In Zhang's algorithm, a new level set method based on Gaussian filtering is used to implement the variational formulation, which is not only vigorous to prevent the energy functional from being trapped into local minimum, but also effective in keeping the level set function regular. Experiments show that the proposed method achieves high accuracy brain tumor segmentation results.

  3. A Predictive Study of Dirichlet Process Mixture Models for Curve Fitting

    PubMed Central

    WADE, SARA; WALKER, STEPHEN G.; PETRONE, SONIA

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the use of Dirichlet process (DP) mixtures for curve fitting. An important modelling aspect in this setting is the choice between constant or covariate-dependent weights. By examining the problem of curve fitting from a predictive perspective, we show the advantages of using covariate-dependent weights. These advantages are a result of the incorporation of covariate proximity in the latent partition. However, closer examination of the partition yields further complications, which arise from the vast number of total partitions. To overcome this, we propose to modify the probability law of the random partition to strictly enforce the notion of covariate proximity, while still maintaining certain properties of the DP. This allows the distribution of the partition to depend on the covariate in a simple manner and greatly reduces the total number of possible partitions, resulting in improved curve fitting and faster computations. Numerical illustrations are presented. PMID:25395718

  4. A two-component model for fitting light curves of core-collapse supernovae

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagy, A. P.; Vinkó, J.

    2016-05-01

    We present an improved version of a light curve model that is able to estimate the physical properties of different types of core-collapse supernovae that have double-peaked light curves and do so in a quick and efficient way. The model is based on a two-component configuration consisting of a dense inner region and an extended low-mass envelope. Using this configuration, we estimate the initial parameters of the progenitor by fitting the shape of the quasi-bolometric light curves of 10 SNe, including Type IIP and IIb events, with model light curves. In each case we compare the fitting results with available hydrodynamic calculations and also match the derived expansion velocities with the observed ones. Furthermore, we compare our calculations with hydrodynamic models derived by the SNEC code and examine the uncertainties of the estimated physical parameters caused by the assumption of constant opacity and the inaccurate knowledge of the moment of explosion.

  5. Fitting the distribution of dry and wet spells with alternative probability models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deni, Sayang Mohd; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

    2009-06-01

    The development of the rainfall occurrence model is greatly important not only for data-generation purposes, but also in providing informative resources for future advancements in water-related sectors, such as water resource management and the hydrological and agricultural sectors. Various kinds of probability models had been introduced to a sequence of dry (wet) days by previous researchers in the field. Based on the probability models developed previously, the present study is aimed to propose three types of mixture distributions, namely, the mixture of two log series distributions (LSD), the mixture of the log series Poisson distribution (MLPD), and the mixture of the log series and geometric distributions (MLGD), as the alternative probability models to describe the distribution of dry (wet) spells in daily rainfall events. In order to test the performance of the proposed new models with the other nine existing probability models, 54 data sets which had been published by several authors were reanalyzed in this study. Also, the new data sets of daily observations from the six selected rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia for the period 1975-2004 were used. In determining the best fitting distribution to describe the observed distribution of dry (wet) spells, a Chi-square goodness-of-fit test was considered. The results revealed that the new method proposed that MLGD and MLPD showed a better fit as more than half of the data sets successfully fitted the distribution of dry and wet spells. However, the existing models, such as the truncated negative binomial and the modified LSD, were also among the successful probability models to represent the sequence of dry (wet) days in daily rainfall occurrence.

  6. Fitting complex population models by combining particle filters with Markov chain Monte Carlo.

    PubMed

    Knape, Jonas; de Valpine, Perry

    2012-02-01

    We show how a recent framework combining Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with particle filters (PFMCMC) may be used to estimate population state-space models. With the purpose of utilizing the strengths of each method, PFMCMC explores hidden states by particle filters, while process and observation parameters are estimated using an MCMC algorithm. PFMCMC is exemplified by analyzing time series data on a red kangaroo (Macropus rufus) population in New South Wales, Australia, using MCMC over model parameters based on an adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. We fit three population models to these data; a density-dependent logistic diffusion model with environmental variance, an unregulated stochastic exponential growth model, and a random-walk model. Bayes factors and posterior model probabilities show that there is little support for density dependence and that the random-walk model is the most parsimonious model. The particle filter Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is a brute-force method that may be used to fit a range of complex population models. Implementation is straightforward and less involved than standard MCMC for many models, and marginal densities for model selection can be obtained with little additional effort. The cost is mainly computational, resulting in long running times that may be improved by parallelizing the algorithm. PMID:22624307

  7. When should a model be rejected as not fit-for-purpose?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beven, Keith; Lane, Stuart

    2015-04-01

    There are many models used in the geosciences that are actually not very good at predicting available observations, even after calibration or inversion that allows for some stochastic error model. This may be for very good reasons: because there is some difficulty in implementing perceptual understanding into quantitative model representations, because the initial and boundary conditions are subject to both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties (particularly in respect of the future); because there are computational constraints on model resolution or identification strategies; or because there are commensurability issues in relating measured and model parameter values. But models are very rarely rejected, even when it is clear that they are not really fit-for-purpose. Increasingly, any model limitations are compensated by some form of uncertainty estimation (perhaps including bias and other corrections). But if a model is not fit-for-purpose it might be dangerous to base decisions on the basis of its prediction, even with some form of uncertainty assessment. This presentation will consider how a framework for model rejection might work, taking account of the various sources of uncertainty in the model process. It turns out that this puts emphasis back on the quality of the data sets for model testing in not rejecting potentially useful models just because the input data are poor.

  8. Fitting parametric models of diffusion MRI in regions of partial volume

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eaton-Rosen, Zach; Cardoso, M. J.; Melbourne, Andrew; Orasanu, Eliza; Bainbridge, Alan; Kendall, Giles S.; Robertson, Nicola J.; Marlow, Neil; Ourselin, Sebastien

    2016-03-01

    Regional analysis is normally done by fitting models per voxel and then averaging over a region, accounting for partial volume (PV) only to some degree. In thin, folded regions such as the cerebral cortex, such methods do not work well, as the partial volume confounds parameter estimation. Instead, we propose to fit the models per region directly with explicit PV modeling. In this work we robustly estimate region-wise parameters whilst explicitly accounting for partial volume effects. We use a high-resolution segmentation from a T1 scan to assign each voxel in the diffusion image a probabilistic membership to each of k tissue classes. We rotate the DW signal at each voxel so that it aligns with the z-axis, then model the signal at each voxel as a linear superposition of a representative signal from each of the k tissue types. Fitting involves optimising these representative signals to best match the data, given the known probabilities of belonging to each tissue type that we obtained from the segmentation. We demonstrate this method improves parameter estimation in digital phantoms for the diffusion tensor (DT) and `Neurite Orientation Dispersion and Density Imaging' (NODDI) models. The method provides accurate parameter estimates even in regions where the normal approach fails completely, for example where partial volume is present in every voxel. Finally, we apply this model to brain data from preterm infants, where the thin, convoluted, maturing cortex necessitates such an approach.

  9. Fitting a three-component scattering model to polarimetric SAR data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Freeman, A.; Durden, S.

    1992-01-01

    A new technique for fitting a three-component scattering mechanism model to the polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data itself, without utilizing any ground truth measurements, is presented. The three scattering mechanism components included in the model are volume scatter from randomly oriented dipoles, first-order Bragg surface scatter and a dihedral scattering mechanism for two surfaces with different dielectric constants. The model fit yields an estimate of the contribution to the total backscatter of each of the three components. The backscatter contributions can also be compared to give the relative percentage weight of each. The model fit has an equal number of input parameters (the polarimetric radar backscatter measurements) and output parameters (the backscatter parameters describing them). The model can be applied to entire images or to small areas within an image to give a first-order estimate of the relevant scattering mechanisms. The model was applied to many C-, L- and P-band Airborne SAR (AIRSAR) images of different types of terrain. Results were presented at the workshop.

  10. The Fitness Landscape of HIV-1 Gag: Advanced Modeling Approaches and Validation of Model Predictions by In Vitro Testing

    PubMed Central

    Omarjee, Saleha; Walker, Bruce D.; Chakraborty, Arup; Ndung'u, Thumbi

    2014-01-01

    Viral immune evasion by sequence variation is a major hindrance to HIV-1 vaccine design. To address this challenge, our group has developed a computational model, rooted in physics, that aims to predict the fitness landscape of HIV-1 proteins in order to design vaccine immunogens that lead to impaired viral fitness, thus blocking viable escape routes. Here, we advance the computational models to address previous limitations, and directly test model predictions against in vitro fitness measurements of HIV-1 strains containing multiple Gag mutations. We incorporated regularization into the model fitting procedure to address finite sampling. Further, we developed a model that accounts for the specific identity of mutant amino acids (Potts model), generalizing our previous approach (Ising model) that is unable to distinguish between different mutant amino acids. Gag mutation combinations (17 pairs, 1 triple and 25 single mutations within these) predicted to be either harmful to HIV-1 viability or fitness-neutral were introduced into HIV-1 NL4-3 by site-directed mutagenesis and replication capacities of these mutants were assayed in vitro. The predicted and measured fitness of the corresponding mutants for the original Ising model (r = −0.74, p = 3.6×10−6) are strongly correlated, and this was further strengthened in the regularized Ising model (r = −0.83, p = 3.7×10−12). Performance of the Potts model (r = −0.73, p = 9.7×10−9) was similar to that of the Ising model, indicating that the binary approximation is sufficient for capturing fitness effects of common mutants at sites of low amino acid diversity. However, we show that the Potts model is expected to improve predictive power for more variable proteins. Overall, our results support the ability of the computational models to robustly predict the relative fitness of mutant viral strains, and indicate the potential value of this approach for understanding viral immune evasion

  11. How Should We Assess the Fit of Rasch-Type Models? Approximating the Power of Goodness-of-Fit Statistics in Categorical Data Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto; Montano, Rosa

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the performance of three statistics, R [subscript 1], R [subscript 2] (Glas in "Psychometrika" 53:525-546, 1988), and M [subscript 2] (Maydeu-Olivares & Joe in "J. Am. Stat. Assoc." 100:1009-1020, 2005, "Psychometrika" 71:713-732, 2006) to assess the overall fit of a one-parameter logistic model (1PL) estimated by (marginal) maximum…

  12. A flexible, interactive software tool for fitting the parameters of neuronal models.

    PubMed

    Friedrich, Péter; Vella, Michael; Gulyás, Attila I; Freund, Tamás F; Káli, Szabolcs

    2014-01-01

    The construction of biologically relevant neuronal models as well as model-based analysis of experimental data often requires the simultaneous fitting of multiple model parameters, so that the behavior of the model in a certain paradigm matches (as closely as possible) the corresponding output of a real neuron according to some predefined criterion. Although the task of model optimization is often computationally hard, and the quality of the results depends heavily on technical issues such as the appropriate choice (and implementation) of cost functions and optimization algorithms, no existing program provides access to the best available methods while also guiding the user through the process effectively. Our software, called Optimizer, implements a modular and extensible framework for the optimization of neuronal models, and also features a graphical interface which makes it easy for even non-expert users to handle many commonly occurring scenarios. Meanwhile, educated users can extend the capabilities of the program and customize it according to their needs with relatively little effort. Optimizer has been developed in Python, takes advantage of open-source Python modules for nonlinear optimization, and interfaces directly with the NEURON simulator to run the models. Other simulators are supported through an external interface. We have tested the program on several different types of problems of varying complexity, using different model classes. As targets, we used simulated traces from the same or a more complex model class, as well as experimental data. We successfully used Optimizer to determine passive parameters and conductance densities in compartmental models, and to fit simple (adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire) neuronal models to complex biological data. Our detailed comparisons show that Optimizer can handle a wider range of problems, and delivers equally good or better performance than any other existing neuronal model fitting tool. PMID

  13. A flexible, interactive software tool for fitting the parameters of neuronal models

    PubMed Central

    Friedrich, Péter; Vella, Michael; Gulyás, Attila I.; Freund, Tamás F.; Káli, Szabolcs

    2014-01-01

    The construction of biologically relevant neuronal models as well as model-based analysis of experimental data often requires the simultaneous fitting of multiple model parameters, so that the behavior of the model in a certain paradigm matches (as closely as possible) the corresponding output of a real neuron according to some predefined criterion. Although the task of model optimization is often computationally hard, and the quality of the results depends heavily on technical issues such as the appropriate choice (and implementation) of cost functions and optimization algorithms, no existing program provides access to the best available methods while also guiding the user through the process effectively. Our software, called Optimizer, implements a modular and extensible framework for the optimization of neuronal models, and also features a graphical interface which makes it easy for even non-expert users to handle many commonly occurring scenarios. Meanwhile, educated users can extend the capabilities of the program and customize it according to their needs with relatively little effort. Optimizer has been developed in Python, takes advantage of open-source Python modules for nonlinear optimization, and interfaces directly with the NEURON simulator to run the models. Other simulators are supported through an external interface. We have tested the program on several different types of problems of varying complexity, using different model classes. As targets, we used simulated traces from the same or a more complex model class, as well as experimental data. We successfully used Optimizer to determine passive parameters and conductance densities in compartmental models, and to fit simple (adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire) neuronal models to complex biological data. Our detailed comparisons show that Optimizer can handle a wider range of problems, and delivers equally good or better performance than any other existing neuronal model fitting tool. PMID

  14. The Beta Problem: The Incompatibility of X-ray and Sunyaev-Zeldovich Model Fitting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burns, Jack O.; Hallman, E.; Motl, P.; Norman, M.

    2006-12-01

    We describe an analysis of a large sample of numerically simulated clusters which demonstrates the effects of using X-ray fitted beta-model parameters with Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect (SZE) data. There is a fundamental incompatibility between beta-model fits to X-ray surface brightness profiles and those done with SZE profiles. Since observational SZE radial profiles are in short supply, the X-ray parameters are often used in SZE analysis. We show that this leads to biased estimates of the integrated Compton y-parameter inside r500 and the value of the Hubble constant calculated from clusters. We suggest a simple scaling of the X-ray beta-model parameters which brings these calculated quantities into close agreement with the true values.

  15. The Blazar 3C 66A in 2003-2004: hadronic versus leptonic model fits

    SciTech Connect

    Reimer, A.

    2008-12-24

    The low-frequency peaked BL Lac object 3C 66A was the subject of an extensive multi-wavelength campaign from July 2003 till April 2004, which included quasi-simultaneous observations at optical, X-rays and very high energy gamma-rays. Here we apply the hadronic Synchrotron-Proton Blazar (SPB) model to the observed spectral energy distribution time-averaged over a flaring state, and compare the resulting model fits to those obtained from the application of the leptonic Synchrotron-Self-Compton (SSC) model. The results are used to identify diagnostic key predictions of the two blazar models for future multi-wavelength observations.

  16. Array-based evolution of DNA aptamers allows modelling of an explicit sequence-fitness landscape

    PubMed Central

    Knight, Christopher G.; Platt, Mark; Rowe, William; Wedge, David C.; Khan, Farid; Day, Philip J. R.; McShea, Andy; Knowles, Joshua; Kell, Douglas B.

    2009-01-01

    Mapping the landscape of possible macromolecular polymer sequences to their fitness in performing biological functions is a challenge across the biosciences. A paradigm is the case of aptamers, nucleic acids that can be selected to bind particular target molecules. We have characterized the sequence-fitness landscape for aptamers binding allophycocyanin (APC) protein via a novel Closed Loop Aptameric Directed Evolution (CLADE) approach. In contrast to the conventional SELEX methodology, selection and mutation of aptamer sequences was carried out in silico, with explicit fitness assays for 44 131 aptamers of known sequence using DNA microarrays in vitro. We capture the landscape using a predictive machine learning model linking sequence features and function and validate this model using 5500 entirely separate test sequences, which give a very high observed versus predicted correlation of 0.87. This approach reveals a complex sequence-fitness mapping, and hypotheses for the physical basis of aptameric binding; it also enables rapid design of novel aptamers with desired binding properties. We demonstrate an extension to the approach by incorporating prior knowledge into CLADE, resulting in some of the tightest binding sequences. PMID:19029139

  17. The Impact of Model Misspecification on Parameter Estimation and Item-Fit Assessment in Log-Linear Diagnostic Classification Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kunina-Habenicht, Olga; Rupp, Andre A.; Wilhelm, Oliver

    2012-01-01

    Using a complex simulation study we investigated parameter recovery, classification accuracy, and performance of two item-fit statistics for correct and misspecified diagnostic classification models within a log-linear modeling framework. The basic manipulated test design factors included the number of respondents (1,000 vs. 10,000), attributes (3…

  18. The Herschel Orion Protostar Survey: Spectral Energy Distributions and Fits Using a Grid of Protostellar Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Furlan, E.; Fischer, W. J.; Ali, B.; Stutz, A. M.; Stanke, T.; Tobin, J. J.; Megeath, S. T.; Osorio, M.; Hartmann, L.; Calvet, N.; Poteet, C. A.; Booker, J.; Manoj, P.; Watson, D. M.; Allen, L.

    2016-05-01

    We present key results from the Herschel Orion Protostar Survey: spectral energy distributions (SEDs) and model fits of 330 young stellar objects, predominantly protostars, in the Orion molecular clouds. This is the largest sample of protostars studied in a single, nearby star formation complex. With near-infrared photometry from 2MASS, mid- and far-infrared data from Spitzer and Herschel, and submillimeter photometry from APEX, our SEDs cover 1.2–870 μm and sample the peak of the protostellar envelope emission at ∼100 μm. Using mid-IR spectral indices and bolometric temperatures, we classify our sample into 92 Class 0 protostars, 125 Class I protostars, 102 flat-spectrum sources, and 11 Class II pre-main-sequence stars. We implement a simple protostellar model (including a disk in an infalling envelope with outflow cavities) to generate a grid of 30,400 model SEDs and use it to determine the best-fit model parameters for each protostar. We argue that far-IR data are essential for accurate constraints on protostellar envelope properties. We find that most protostars, and in particular the flat-spectrum sources, are well fit. The median envelope density and median inclination angle decrease from Class 0 to Class I to flat-spectrum protostars, despite the broad range in best-fit parameters in each of the three categories. We also discuss degeneracies in our model parameters. Our results confirm that the different protostellar classes generally correspond to an evolutionary sequence with a decreasing envelope infall rate, but the inclination angle also plays a role in the appearance, and thus interpretation, of the SEDs.

  19. Performance evaluation of hydrological models: Statistical significance for reducing subjectivity in goodness-of-fit assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ritter, Axel; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael

    2013-02-01

    SummarySuccess in the use of computer models for simulating environmental variables and processes requires objective model calibration and verification procedures. Several methods for quantifying the goodness-of-fit of observations against model-calculated values have been proposed but none of them is free of limitations and are often ambiguous. When a single indicator is used it may lead to incorrect verification of the model. Instead, a combination of graphical results, absolute value error statistics (i.e. root mean square error), and normalized goodness-of-fit statistics (i.e. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient, NSE) is currently recommended. Interpretation of NSE values is often subjective, and may be biased by the magnitude and number of data points, data outliers and repeated data. The statistical significance of the performance statistics is an aspect generally ignored that helps in reducing subjectivity in the proper interpretation of the model performance. In this work, approximated probability distributions for two common indicators (NSE and root mean square error) are derived with bootstrapping (block bootstrapping when dealing with time series), followed by bias corrected and accelerated calculation of confidence intervals. Hypothesis testing of the indicators exceeding threshold values is proposed in a unified framework for statistically accepting or rejecting the model performance. It is illustrated how model performance is not linearly related with NSE, which is critical for its proper interpretation. Additionally, the sensitivity of the indicators to model bias, outliers and repeated data is evaluated. The potential of the difference between root mean square error and mean absolute error for detecting outliers is explored, showing that this may be considered a necessary but not a sufficient condition of outlier presence. The usefulness of the approach for the evaluation of model performance is illustrated with case studies including those with

  20. Kinetic modelling of RDF pyrolysis: Model-fitting and model-free approaches.

    PubMed

    Çepelioğullar, Özge; Haykırı-Açma, Hanzade; Yaman, Serdar

    2016-02-01

    In this study, refuse derived fuel (RDF) was selected as solid fuel and it was pyrolyzed in a thermal analyzer from room temperature to 900°C at heating rates of 5, 10, 20, and 50°C/min in N2 atmosphere. The obtained thermal data was used to calculate the kinetic parameters using Coats-Redfern, Friedman, Flylnn-Wall-Ozawa (FWO) and Kissinger-Akahira-Sunose (KAS) methods. As a result of Coats-Redfern model, decomposition process was assumed to be four independent reactions with different reaction orders. On the other hand, model free methods demonstrated that activation energy trend had similarities for the reaction progresses of 0.1, 0.2-0.7 and 0.8-0.9. The average activation energies were found between 73-161kJ/mol and it is possible to say that FWO and KAS models produced closer results to the average activation energies compared to Friedman model. Experimental studies showed that RDF may be a sustainable and promising feedstock for alternative processes in terms of waste management strategies. PMID:26613830

  1. Efficient Constrained Local Model Fitting for Non-Rigid Face Alignment

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yang; Cox, Mark; Sridharan, Sridha; Cohn, Jeffery F.

    2009-01-01

    Active appearance models (AAMs) have demonstrated great utility when being employed for non-rigid face alignment/tracking. The “simultaneous” algorithm for fitting an AAM achieves good non-rigid face registration performance, but has poor real time performance (2-3 fps). The “project-out” algorithm for fitting an AAM achieves faster than real time performance (> 200 fps) but suffers from poor generic alignment performance. In this paper we introduce an extension to a discriminative method for non-rigid face registration/tracking referred to as a constrained local model (CLM). Our proposed method is able to achieve superior performance to the “simultaneous” AAM algorithm along with real time fitting speeds (35 fps). We improve upon the canonical CLM formulation, to gain this performance, in a number of ways by employing: (i) linear SVMs as patch-experts, (ii) a simplified optimization criteria, and (iii) a composite rather than additive warp update step. Most notably, our simplified optimization criteria for fitting the CLM divides the problem of finding a single complex registration/warp displacement into that of finding N simple warp displacements. From these N simple warp displacements, a single complex warp displacement is estimated using a weighted least-squares constraint. Another major advantage of this simplified optimization lends from its ability to be parallelized, a step which we also theoretically explore in this paper. We refer to our approach for fitting the CLM as the “exhaustive local search” (ELS) algorithm. Experiments were conducted on the CMU Multi-PIE database. PMID:20046797

  2. Agricultural case studies of classification accuracy, spectral resolution, and model over-fitting.

    PubMed

    Nansen, Christian; Geremias, Leandro Delalibera; Xue, Yingen; Huang, Fangneng; Parra, Jose Roberto

    2013-11-01

    This paper describes the relationship between spectral resolution and classification accuracy in analyses of hyperspectral imaging data acquired from crop leaves. The main scope is to discuss and reduce the risk of model over-fitting. Over-fitting of a classification model occurs when too many and/or irrelevant model terms are included (i.e., a large number of spectral bands), and it may lead to low robustness/repeatability when the classification model is applied to independent validation data. We outline a simple way to quantify the level of model over-fitting by comparing the observed classification accuracies with those obtained from explanatory random data. Hyperspectral imaging data were acquired from two crop-insect pest systems: (1) potato psyllid (Bactericera cockerelli) infestations of individual bell pepper plants (Capsicum annuum) with the acquisition of hyperspectral imaging data under controlled-light conditions (data set 1), and (2) sugarcane borer (Diatraea saccharalis) infestations of individual maize plants (Zea mays) with the acquisition of hyperspectral imaging data from the same plants under two markedly different image-acquisition conditions (data sets 2a and b). For each data set, reflectance data were analyzed based on seven spectral resolutions by dividing 160 spectral bands from 405 to 907 nm into 4, 16, 32, 40, 53, 80, or 160 bands. In the two data sets, similar classification results were obtained with spectral resolutions ranging from 3.1 to 12.6 nm. Thus, the size of the initial input data could be reduced fourfold with only a negligible loss of classification accuracy. In the analysis of data set 1, several validation approaches all demonstrated consistently that insect-induced stress could be accurately detected and that therefore there was little indication of model over-fitting. In the analyses of data set 2, inconsistent validation results were obtained and the observed classification accuracy (81.06%) was only a few percentage

  3. Bias in fitting the ETAS model: a case study based on New Zealand seismicity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harte, D. S.

    2013-01-01

    We fit various forms of the ETAS model to a large region that includes all of the most seismically active areas of New Zealand. The ETAS model contains two components: a component describing background or immigrant events, and a part describing aftershocks of the background events and aftershocks of the aftershocks. We refer to the first part as the background part and the second as the ETAS part. Generally all of the sophistication, and the bulk of the model parameters, lies in the ETAS part of the model. The background component is generally treated as a nuisance component and is often very simplistic. While the main interest lies in the ETAS part of the model, the poor model description of the background part imposes considerable bias on the ETAS part of the model. For example, a poorly specified spatial density of the background events causes many of the background events to be seen as ETAS events. It can also cause the estimated Omori power-law decay p to be too small, and hence the aftershock sequences appear to continue for too long. On the other hand, the boundary of the observation region can impose a reverse bias which causes aftershocks that are close but within the boundary to be seen as background events. In almost all of the large NZ event sequences since 1965, the model consistently under-fits these sequences. Consequently, it over-fits those space-time regions where there is `normal' seismicity with no major events present. This may indicate that the space-time region of a major event sequence is much closer to criticality, in that aftershock events appear to be much more easily initiated. The standard ETAS model does not reflect this observation.

  4. Aeroelastic modeling for the FIT (Functional Integration Technology) team F/A-18 simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zeiler, Thomas A.; Wieseman, Carol D.

    1989-01-01

    As part of Langley Research Center's commitment to developing multidisciplinary integration methods to improve aerospace systems, the Functional Integration Technology (FIT) team was established to perform dynamics integration research using an existing aircraft configuration, the F/A-18. An essential part of this effort has been the development of a comprehensive simulation modeling capability that includes structural, control, and propulsion dynamics as well as steady and unsteady aerodynamics. The structural and unsteady aerodynamics contributions come from an aeroelastic mode. Some details of the aeroelastic modeling done for the Functional Integration Technology (FIT) team research are presented. Particular attention is given to work done in the area of correction factors to unsteady aerodynamics data.

  5. Parameter fitting in three-flavor Nambu-Jona-Lasinio model with various regularizations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohyama, H.; Kimura, D.; Inagaki, T.

    2016-05-01

    We study the three-flavor Nambu-Jona-Lasinio model with various regularization procedures. We perform parameter fitting in each regularization and apply the obtained parameter sets to evaluate various physical quantities, several light meson masses, decay constant and the topological susceptibility. The model parameters are adopted even at very high cutoff scale compare to the hadronic scale to study the asymptotic behavior of the model. It is found that all the regularization methods except for the dimensional one actually lead reliable physical predictions for the kaon decay constant, sigma meson mass and topological susceptibility without restricting the ultra-violet cutoff below the hadronic scale.

  6. Validation of a Best-Fit Pharmacokinetic Model for Scopolamine Disposition after Intranasal Administration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, L.; Chow, D. S-L.; Tam, V.; Putcha, L.

    2015-01-01

    An intranasal gel formulation of scopolamine (INSCOP) was developed for the treatment of Motion Sickness. Bioavailability and pharmacokinetics (PK) were determined per Investigative New Drug (IND) evaluation guidance by the Food and Drug Administration. Earlier, we reported the development of a PK model that can predict the relationship between plasma, saliva and urinary scopolamine (SCOP) concentrations using data collected from an IND clinical trial with INSCOP. This data analysis project is designed to validate the reported best fit PK model for SCOP by comparing observed and model predicted SCOP concentration-time profiles after administration of INSCOP.

  7. Fitting a Two-Component Scattering Model to Polarimetric SAR Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Freeman, A.

    1998-01-01

    Classification, decomposition and modeling of polarimetric SAR data has received a great deal of attention in the recent literature. The objective behind these efforts is to better understand the scattering mechanisms which give rise to the polarimetric signatures seen in SAR image data. In this Paper an approach is described, which involves the fit of a combination of two simple scattering mechanisms to polarimetric SAR observations. The mechanisms am canopy scatter from a cloud of randomly oriented oblate spheroids, and a ground scatter term, which can represent double-bounce scatter from a pair of orthogonal surfaces with different dielectric constants or Bragg scatter from a moderately rough surface, seen through a layer of vertically oriented scatterers. An advantage of this model fit approach is that the scattering contributions from the two basic scattering mechanisms can be estimated for clusters of pixels in polarimetric SAR images. The solution involves the estimation of four parameters from four separate equations. The model fit can be applied to polarimetric AIRSAR data at C-, L- and P-Band.

  8. Design and verifications of an eye model fitted with contact lenses for wavefront measurement systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Yuan-Chieh; Chen, Jia-Hong; Chang, Rong-Jie; Wang, Chung-Yen; Hsu, Wei-Yao; Wang, Pei-Jen

    2015-09-01

    Contact lenses are typically measured by the wet-box method because of the high optical power resulting from the anterior central curvature of cornea, even though the back vertex power of the lenses are small. In this study, an optical measurement system based on the Shack-Hartmann wavefront principle was established to investigate the aberrations of soft contact lenses. Fitting conditions were micmicked to study the optical design of an eye model with various topographical shapes in the anterior cornea. Initially, the contact lenses were measured by the wet-box method, and then by fitting the various topographical shapes of cornea to the eye model. In addition, an optics simulation program was employed to determine the sources of errors and assess the accuracy of the system. Finally, samples of soft contact lenses with various Diopters were measured; and, both simulations and experimental results were compared for resolving the controversies of fitting contact lenses to an eye model for optical measurements. More importantly, the results show that the proposed system can be employed for study of primary aberrations in contact lenses.

  9. Efficient parallel implementation of active appearance model fitting algorithm on GPU.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jinwei; Ma, Xirong; Zhu, Yuanping; Sun, Jizhou

    2014-01-01

    The active appearance model (AAM) is one of the most powerful model-based object detecting and tracking methods which has been widely used in various situations. However, the high-dimensional texture representation causes very time-consuming computations, which makes the AAM difficult to apply to real-time systems. The emergence of modern graphics processing units (GPUs) that feature a many-core, fine-grained parallel architecture provides new and promising solutions to overcome the computational challenge. In this paper, we propose an efficient parallel implementation of the AAM fitting algorithm on GPUs. Our design idea is fine grain parallelism in which we distribute the texture data of the AAM, in pixels, to thousands of parallel GPU threads for processing, which makes the algorithm fit better into the GPU architecture. We implement our algorithm using the compute unified device architecture (CUDA) on the Nvidia's GTX 650 GPU, which has the latest Kepler architecture. To compare the performance of our algorithm with different data sizes, we built sixteen face AAM models of different dimensional textures. The experiment results show that our parallel AAM fitting algorithm can achieve real-time performance for videos even on very high-dimensional textures. PMID:24723812

  10. Efficient Parallel Implementation of Active Appearance Model Fitting Algorithm on GPU

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Jinwei; Ma, Xirong; Zhu, Yuanping; Sun, Jizhou

    2014-01-01

    The active appearance model (AAM) is one of the most powerful model-based object detecting and tracking methods which has been widely used in various situations. However, the high-dimensional texture representation causes very time-consuming computations, which makes the AAM difficult to apply to real-time systems. The emergence of modern graphics processing units (GPUs) that feature a many-core, fine-grained parallel architecture provides new and promising solutions to overcome the computational challenge. In this paper, we propose an efficient parallel implementation of the AAM fitting algorithm on GPUs. Our design idea is fine grain parallelism in which we distribute the texture data of the AAM, in pixels, to thousands of parallel GPU threads for processing, which makes the algorithm fit better into the GPU architecture. We implement our algorithm using the compute unified device architecture (CUDA) on the Nvidia's GTX 650 GPU, which has the latest Kepler architecture. To compare the performance of our algorithm with different data sizes, we built sixteen face AAM models of different dimensional textures. The experiment results show that our parallel AAM fitting algorithm can achieve real-time performance for videos even on very high-dimensional textures. PMID:24723812

  11. Energy Allowances for Solid Fats and Added Sugars in Nutritionally Adequate U.S. Diets Estimated at 17–33% by a Linear Programming Model1

    PubMed Central

    Maillot, Matthieu; Drewnowski, Adam

    2011-01-01

    The 2010 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee has recommended that no more than 5–15% of total dietary energy should be derived from solid fats and added sugars (SoFAS). The guideline was based on USDA food pattern modeling analyses that met the Dietary Reference Intake recommendations and Dietary Guidelines and followed typical American eating habits. This study recreated food intake patterns for 6 of the same gender-age groups by using USDA data sources and a mathematical optimization technique known as linear programming. The analytic process identified food consumption patterns based on 128 food categories that met the nutritional goals for 9 vitamins, 9 minerals, 8 macronutrients, and dietary fiber and minimized deviation from typical American eating habits. Linear programming Model 1 created gender- and age-specific food patterns that corresponded to energy needs for each group. Model 2 created food patterns that were iso-caloric with diets observed for that group in the 2001–2002 NHANES. The optimized food patterns were evaluated with respect to MyPyramid servings goals, energy density [kcal/g (1 kcal = 4.18 kJ)], and energy cost (US$/2000 kcal). The optimized food patterns had more servings of vegetables and fruit, lower energy density, and higher cost compared with the observed diets. All nutrient goals were met. In contrast to the much lower USDA estimates, the 2 models placed SoFAS allowances at between 17 and 33% of total energy, depending on energy needs. PMID:21178090

  12. Rainfall interception modelling: Is the wet bulb approach adequate to estimate mean evaporation rate from wet/saturated canopies in all forest types?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, F. L.; Valente, F.; David, J. S.; Jackson, N.; Minunno, F.; Gash, J. H.

    2016-03-01

    The Penman-Monteith equation has been widely used to estimate the maximum evaporation rate (E) from wet/saturated forest canopies, regardless of canopy cover fraction. Forests are then represented as a big leaf and interception loss considered essentially as a one-dimensional process. With increasing forest sparseness the assumptions behind this big leaf approach become questionable. In sparse forests it might be better to model E and interception loss at the tree level assuming that the individual tree crowns behave as wet bulbs ("wet bulb approach"). In this study, and for five different forest types and climate conditions, interception loss measurements were compared to modelled values (Gash's interception model) based on estimates of E by the Penman-Monteith and the wet bulb approaches. Results show that the wet bulb approach is a good, and less data demanding, alternative to estimate E when the forest canopy is fully ventilated (very sparse forests with a narrow canopy depth). When the canopy is not fully ventilated, the wet bulb approach requires a reduction of leaf area index to the upper, more ventilated parts of the canopy, needing data on the vertical leaf area distribution, which is seldom-available. In such cases, the Penman-Monteith approach seems preferable. Our data also show that canopy cover does not per se allow us to identify if a forest canopy is fully ventilated or not. New methodologies of sensitivity analyses applied to Gash's model showed that a correct estimate of E is critical for the proper modelling of interception loss.

  13. Fitness landscapes, heuristics and technological paradigms: A critique on random search models in evolutionary economics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frenken, Koen

    2001-06-01

    The biological evolution of complex organisms, in which the functioning of genes is interdependent, has been analyzed as "hill-climbing" on NK fitness landscapes through random mutation and natural selection. In evolutionary economics, NK fitness landscapes have been used to simulate the evolution of complex technological systems containing elements that are interdependent in their functioning. In these models, economic agents randomly search for new technological design by trial-and-error and run the risk of ending up in sub-optimal solutions due to interdependencies between the elements in a complex system. These models of random search are legitimate for reasons of modeling simplicity, but remain limited as these models ignore the fact that agents can apply heuristics. A specific heuristic is one that sequentially optimises functions according to their ranking by users of the system. To model this heuristic, a generalized NK-model is developed. In this model, core elements that influence many functions can be distinguished from peripheral elements that affect few functions. The concept of paradigmatic search can then be analytically defined as search that leaves core elements in tact while concentrating on improving functions by mutation of peripheral elements.

  14. Current European guidelines for management of arterial hypertension: Are they adequate for use in primary care? Modelling study based on the Norwegian HUNT 2 population

    PubMed Central

    Petursson, Halfdan; Getz, Linn; Sigurdsson, Johann A; Hetlevik, Irene

    2009-01-01

    Background Previous studies indicate that clinical guidelines using combined risk evaluation for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) may overestimate risk. The aim of this study was to model and discuss implementation of the current (2007) hypertension guidelines in a general Norwegian population. Methods Implementation of the current European Guidelines for the Management of Arterial Hypertension was modelled on data from a cross-sectional, representative Norwegian population study (The Nord-Trøndelag Health Study 1995-97), comprising 65,028 adults, aged 20-89, of whom 51,066 (79%) were eligible for modelling. Results Among individuals with blood pressure ≥120/80 mmHg, 93% (74% of the total, adult population) would need regular clinical attention and/or drug treatment, based on their total CVD risk profile. This translates into 296,624 follow-up visits/100,000 adults/year. In the Norwegian healthcare environment, 99 general practitioner (GP) positions would be required in the study region for this task alone. The number of GPs currently serving the adult population in the study area is 87 per 100,000 adults. Conclusion The potential workload associated with the European hypertension guidelines could destabilise the healthcare system in Norway, one of the world's most long- and healthy-living nations, by international comparison. Large-scale, preventive medical enterprises can hardly be regarded as scientifically sound and ethically justifiable, unless issues of practical feasibility, sustainability and social determinants of health are considered. PMID:19878542

  15. Fitting additive hazards models for case-cohort studies: a multiple imputation approach.

    PubMed

    Jung, Jinhyouk; Harel, Ofer; Kang, Sangwook

    2016-07-30

    In this paper, we consider fitting semiparametric additive hazards models for case-cohort studies using a multiple imputation approach. In a case-cohort study, main exposure variables are measured only on some selected subjects, but other covariates are often available for the whole cohort. We consider this as a special case of a missing covariate by design. We propose to employ a popular incomplete data method, multiple imputation, for estimation of the regression parameters in additive hazards models. For imputation models, an imputation modeling procedure based on a rejection sampling is developed. A simple imputation modeling that can naturally be applied to a general missing-at-random situation is also considered and compared with the rejection sampling method via extensive simulation studies. In addition, a misspecification aspect in imputation modeling is investigated. The proposed procedures are illustrated using a cancer data example. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26194861

  16. Fitting a Two-Component Scattering Model to Polarimetric SAR Data from Forests

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Freeman, Anthony

    2007-01-01

    Two simple scattering mechanisms are fitted to polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations of forests. The mechanisms are canopy scatter from a reciprocal medium with azimuthal symmetry and a ground scatter term that can represent double-bounce scatter from a pair of orthogonal surfaces with different dielectric constants or Bragg scatter from a moderately rough surface, which is seen through a layer of vertically oriented scatterers. The model is shown to represent the behavior of polarimetric backscatter from a tropical forest and two temperate forest sites by applying it to data from the National Aeronautic and Space Agency/Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Airborne SAR (AIRSAR) system. Scattering contributions from the two basic scattering mechanisms are estimated for clusters of pixels in polarimetric SAR images. The solution involves the estimation of four parameters from four separate equations. This model fit approach is justified as a simplification of more complicated scattering models, which require many inputs to solve the forward scattering problem. The model is used to develop an understanding of the ground-trunk double-bounce scattering that is present in the data, which is seen to vary considerably as a function of incidence angle. Two parameters in the model fit appear to exhibit sensitivity to vegetation canopy structure, which is worth further exploration. Results from the model fit for the ground scattering term are compared with estimates from a forward model and shown to be in good agreement. The behavior of the scattering from the ground-trunk interaction is consistent with the presence of a pseudo-Brewster angle effect for the air-trunk scattering interface. If the Brewster angle is known, it is possible to directly estimate the real part of the dielectric constant of the trunks, a key variable in forward modeling of backscatter from forests. It is also shown how, with a priori knowledge of the forest height, an estimate for the

  17. Fit for purpose application of currently existing animal models in the discovery of novel epilepsy therapies.

    PubMed

    Löscher, Wolfgang

    2016-10-01

    Animal seizure and epilepsy models continue to play an important role in the early discovery of new therapies for the symptomatic treatment of epilepsy. Since 1937, with the discovery of phenytoin, almost all anti-seizure drugs (ASDs) have been identified by their effects in animal models, and millions of patients world-wide have benefited from the successful translation of animal data into the clinic. However, several unmet clinical needs remain, including resistance to ASDs in about 30% of patients with epilepsy, adverse effects of ASDs that can reduce quality of life, and the lack of treatments that can prevent development of epilepsy in patients at risk following brain injury. The aim of this review is to critically discuss the translational value of currently used animal models of seizures and epilepsy, particularly what animal models can tell us about epilepsy therapies in patients and which limitations exist. Principles of translational medicine will be used for this discussion. An essential requirement for translational medicine to improve success in drug development is the availability of animal models with high predictive validity for a therapeutic drug response. For this requirement, the model, by definition, does not need to be a perfect replication of the clinical condition, but it is important that the validation provided for a given model is fit for purpose. The present review should guide researchers in both academia and industry what can and cannot be expected from animal models in preclinical development of epilepsy therapies, which models are best suited for which purpose, and for which aspects suitable models are as yet not available. Overall further development is needed to improve and validate animal models for the diverse areas in epilepsy research where suitable fit for purpose models are urgently needed in the search for more effective treatments. PMID:27505294

  18. Improving the Fitness of High-Dimensional Biomechanical Models via Data-Driven Stochastic Exploration

    PubMed Central

    Bustamante, Carlos D.; Valero-Cuevas, Francisco J.

    2010-01-01

    The field of complex biomechanical modeling has begun to rely on Monte Carlo techniques to investigate the effects of parameter variability and measurement uncertainty on model outputs, search for optimal parameter combinations, and define model limitations. However, advanced stochastic methods to perform data-driven explorations, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), become necessary as the number of model parameters increases. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility and, what to our knowledge is, the first use of an MCMC approach to improve the fitness of realistically large biomechanical models. We used a Metropolis–Hastings algorithm to search increasingly complex parameter landscapes (3, 8, 24, and 36 dimensions) to uncover underlying distributions of anatomical parameters of a “truth model” of the human thumb on the basis of simulated kinematic data (thumbnail location, orientation, and linear and angular velocities) polluted by zero-mean, uncorrelated multivariate Gaussian “measurement noise.” Driven by these data, ten Markov chains searched each model parameter space for the subspace that best fit the data (posterior distribution). As expected, the convergence time increased, more local minima were found, and marginal distributions broadened as the parameter space complexity increased. In the 36-D scenario, some chains found local minima but the majority of chains converged to the true posterior distribution (confirmed using a cross-validation dataset), thus demonstrating the feasibility and utility of these methods for realistically large biomechanical problems. PMID:19272906

  19. Computational Software for Fitting Seismic Data to Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chu, A.

    2014-12-01

    Modern earthquake catalogs are often analyzed using spatial-temporal point process models such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models of Ogata (1998). My work introduces software to implement two of ETAS models described in Ogata (1998). To find the Maximum-Likelihood Estimates (MLEs), my software provides estimates of the homogeneous background rate parameter and the temporal and spatial parameters that govern triggering effects by applying the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm introduced in Veen and Schoenberg (2008). Despite other computer programs exist for similar data modeling purpose, using EM-algorithm has the benefits of stability and robustness (Veen and Schoenberg, 2008). Spatial shapes that are very long and narrow cause difficulties in optimization convergence and problems with flat or multi-modal log-likelihood functions encounter similar issues. My program uses a robust method to preset a parameter to overcome the non-convergence computational issue. In addition to model fitting, the software is equipped with useful tools for examining modeling fitting results, for example, visualization of estimated conditional intensity, and estimation of expected number of triggered aftershocks. A simulation generator is also given with flexible spatial shapes that may be defined by the user. This open-source software has a very simple user interface. The user may execute it on a local computer, and the program also has potential to be hosted online. Java language is used for the software's core computing part and an optional interface to the statistical package R is provided.

  20. Kinetic Modeling and Fitting Software for Inter-connected Reaction Schemes: VisKin

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Xuan; Andrews, Jared N.; Pedersen, Steen E.

    2007-01-01

    Reaction kinetics for complex, highly-interconnected kinetic schemes are modeled using analytical solutions to a system of ordinary differential equations. The algorithm employs standard linear algebra methods that are implemented using MatLab functions in a Visual Basic interface. A graphical user interface for simple entry of reaction schemes facilitates comparison of a variety of reaction schemes. To ensure microscopic balance, graph theory algorithms are used to determine violations of thermodynamic cycle constraints. Analytical solutions based on linear differential equations result in fast comparisons of first order kinetic rates and amplitudes as a function of changing ligand concentrations. For analysis of higher order kinetics, we also implemented a solution using numerical integration. In order to determine rate constants from experimental data, fitting algorithms using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm or using Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) methods were implemented that adjust rate constants to fit the model to imported data. We have included the ability to carry out global fitting of data sets obtained at varying ligand concentrations. These tools are combined in a single package, which we have dubbed VisKin, to guide and analyze kinetic experiments. The software is available online for use on PCs. PMID:17207764

  1. Kinetic modeling and fitting software for interconnected reaction schemes: VisKin.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xuan; Andrews, Jared N; Pedersen, Steen E

    2007-02-15

    Reaction kinetics for complex, highly interconnected kinetic schemes are modeled using analytical solutions to a system of ordinary differential equations. The algorithm employs standard linear algebra methods that are implemented using MatLab functions in a Visual Basic interface. A graphical user interface for simple entry of reaction schemes facilitates comparison of a variety of reaction schemes. To ensure microscopic balance, graph theory algorithms are used to determine violations of thermodynamic cycle constraints. Analytical solutions based on linear differential equations result in fast comparisons of first order kinetic rates and amplitudes as a function of changing ligand concentrations. For analysis of higher order kinetics, we also implemented a solution using numerical integration. To determine rate constants from experimental data, fitting algorithms that adjust rate constants to fit the model to imported data were implemented using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm or using Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno methods. We have included the ability to carry out global fitting of data sets obtained at varying ligand concentrations. These tools are combined in a single package, which we have dubbed VisKin, to guide and analyze kinetic experiments. The software is available online for use on PCs. PMID:17207764

  2. Goodness-of-fit tests for open capture-recapture models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pollock, K.H.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    General goodness-of-fit tests for the Jolly-Seber model are proposed. These tests are based on conditional arguments using minimal sufficient statistics. The tests are shown to be of simple hypergeometric form so that a series of independent contingency table chi-square tests can be performed. The relationship of these tests to other proposed tests is discussed. This is followed by a simulation study of the power of the tests to detect departures from the assumptions of the Jolly-Seber model. Some meadow vole capture-recapture data are used to illustrate the testing procedure which has been implemented in a computer program available from the authors.

  3. The New Vector Fitting Approach to Multiple Convex Obstacles Modeling for UWB Propagation Channels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Górniak, P.; Bandurski, W.

    This chapter presents the new approach to time-domain modeling of UWB channels containing multiple convex obstacles. Vector fitting (VF) algorithm (rational approximation) was used for deriving the closed form impulse response of multiple diffraction ray creeping on a cascade of convex obstacles. VF algorithm was performed with respect to new generalized variables proportional to frequency but including geometrical parameters of the obstacles also. The limits of approximation domain for vector fitting algorithm follow the range of ultra-wideband (UWB) channel parameters that can be met in practical UWB channel scenarios. Finally, the closed form impulse response of a creeping UTD ray was obtained. As the result we obtained impulse response of the channel as a function of normalized, with respect to geometrical parameters of the obstacles, time. It permits for calculation of channel responses for various objects without changing the body of a rational function. In that way the presented approach is general, simple, and effective.

  4. Do Physical Proximity and Availability of Adequate Infrastructure at Public Health Facility Increase Institutional Delivery? A Three Level Hierarchical Model Approach

    PubMed Central

    Patel, Rachana; Ladusingh, Laishram

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to examine the inter-district and inter-village variation of utilization of health services for institutional births in EAG states in presence of rural health program and availability of infrastructures. District Level Household Survey-III (2007–08) data on delivery care and facility information was used for the purpose. Bivariate results examined the utilization pattern by states in presence of correlates of women related while a three-level hierarchical multilevel model illustrates the effect of accessibility, availability of health facility and community health program variables on the utilization of health services for institutional births. The study found a satisfactory improvement in state Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Orissa, importantly, in Bihar and Uttaranchal. The study showed that increasing distance from health facility discouraged institutional births and there was a rapid decline of more than 50% for institutional delivery as the distance to public health facility exceeded 10 km. Additionally, skilled female health worker (ANM) and observed improved public health facility led to significantly increase the probability of utilization as compared to non-skilled ANM and not-improved health centers. Adequacy of essential equipment/laboratory services required for maternal care significantly encouraged deliveries at public health facility. District/village variables neighborhood poverty was negatively related to institutional delivery while higher education levels in the village and women’s residing in more urbanized districts increased the utilization. “Inter-district” variation was 14 percent whereas “between-villages” variation for the utilization was 11 percent variation once controlled for all the three-level variables in the model. This study suggests that the mere availability of health facilities is necessary but not sufficient condition to promote utilization until the quality of service is inadequate and inaccessible

  5. Fitted Hanbury-Brown Twiss radii versus space-time variances in flow-dominated models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frodermann, Evan; Heinz, Ulrich; Lisa, Michael Annan

    2006-04-01

    The inability of otherwise successful dynamical models to reproduce the Hanbury-Brown Twiss (HBT) radii extracted from two-particle correlations measured at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) is known as the RHIC HBT Puzzle. Most comparisons between models and experiment exploit the fact that for Gaussian sources the HBT radii agree with certain combinations of the space-time widths of the source that can be directly computed from the emission function without having to evaluate, at significant expense, the two-particle correlation function. We here study the validity of this approach for realistic emission function models, some of which exhibit significant deviations from simple Gaussian behavior. By Fourier transforming the emission function, we compute the two-particle correlation function, and fit it with a Gaussian to partially mimic the procedure used for measured correlation functions. We describe a novel algorithm to perform this Gaussian fit analytically. We find that for realistic hydrodynamic models the HBT radii extracted from this procedure agree better with the data than the values previously extracted from the space-time widths of the emission function. Although serious discrepancies between the calculated and the measured HBT radii remain, we show that a more apples-to-apples comparison of models with data can play an important role in any eventually successful theoretical description of RHIC HBT data.

  6. Fitted Hanbury-Brown-Twiss radii versus space-time variances in flow-dominated models

    SciTech Connect

    Frodermann, Evan; Heinz, Ulrich; Lisa, Michael Annan

    2006-04-15

    The inability of otherwise successful dynamical models to reproduce the Hanbury-Brown-Twiss (HBT) radii extracted from two-particle correlations measured at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) is known as the RHIC HBT Puzzle. Most comparisons between models and experiment exploit the fact that for Gaussian sources the HBT radii agree with certain combinations of the space-time widths of the source that can be directly computed from the emission function without having to evaluate, at significant expense, the two-particle correlation function. We here study the validity of this approach for realistic emission function models, some of which exhibit significant deviations from simple Gaussian behavior. By Fourier transforming the emission function, we compute the two-particle correlation function, and fit it with a Gaussian to partially mimic the procedure used for measured correlation functions. We describe a novel algorithm to perform this Gaussian fit analytically. We find that for realistic hydrodynamic models the HBT radii extracted from this procedure agree better with the data than the values previously extracted from the space-time widths of the emission function. Although serious discrepancies between the calculated and the measured HBT radii remain, we show that a more apples-to-apples comparison of models with data can play an important role in any eventually successful theoretical description of RHIC HBT data.

  7. Real-time simulation of power transmission lines using Marti model with optimal fitting on dual-DSP card

    SciTech Connect

    Dufour, C.; Le-Huy, H.; El Hakimi, A.; Soumagne, J.C.

    1996-01-01

    Real-time simulation of a small power network containing a Marti modeled transmission line is made using 2 parallel DSP`s. A new fitting method is used in the modeling of the Marti line which is optimized with regards to the fitting error curve. Results are presented which show the time costs of the Marti line modeling versus constant-parameter line modeling and the time savings by using two parallel DSP`s.

  8. Atmospheric Properties of T Dwarfs Inferred from Model Fits at Low Spectral Resolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Godfrey, Paige A.; Rice, Emily L.; Filippazzo, Joe; Douglas, Stephanie; BDNYC

    2016-01-01

    Brown dwarfs are substellar objects that cool over time because they are not massive enough to sustain hydrogen fusion at their cores. While spectral types (M, L, T, Y) generally correlate with decreasing temperature, spectral subclasses (T0, T1, T2, etc.) do not, suggesting that secondary parameters (gravity, metallicity, dust) play a role in the spectral type-temperature relationship. We investigate this relationship for T dwarfs, which make up the coolest fully-populated spectral class of substellar objects. Our sample consists of 154 T dwarfs with low resolution (R~75-100) near-infrared (~0.8-2.5 micron) spectra from the SpeX Prism Library and the literature. We compare each observed spectrum to synthetic spectra from four model grids using a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo analysis to determine robust best-fit parameters and uncertainties. We evaluate the best fit parameters from each model grid per object to constrain how spectral type relates to decreasing temperature and increasing surface gravity and to compare the consistency of each model grid. To test for discrepant results when fitting to relatively narrow wavelength ranges, this analysis is performed on the full spectrum of the Y, J, H, and K bands and on each band separately. New detections of cooler objects extending into the Y dwarf and exoplanet regimes motivate our model comparisons and search for trends with spectral type and other observational properties across the decreasing temperatures in order to better understand the atmospheres of substellar objects, including cool gas giant exoplanets.

  9. Correlated Parameter Fit of Arrhenius Model for Thermal Denaturation of Proteins and Cells

    PubMed Central

    Qin, Zhenpeng; Balasubramanian, Saravana Kumar; Wolkers, Willem F.; Pearce, John A.; Bischof, John C.

    2014-01-01

    Thermal denaturation of proteins is critical to cell injury, food science and other biomaterial processing. For example protein denaturation correlates strongly with cell death by heating, and is increasingly of interest in focal thermal therapies of cancer and other diseases at temperatures which often exceed 50 °C. The Arrhenius model is a simple yet widely used model for both protein denaturation and cell injury. To establish the utility of the Arrhenius model for protein denaturation at 50 °C and above its sensitivities to the kinetic parameters (activation energy Ea and frequency factor A) were carefully examined. We propose a simplified correlated parameter fit to the Arrhenius model by treating Ea, as an independent fitting parameter and allowing A to follow dependently. The utility of the correlated parameter fit is demonstrated on thermal denaturation of proteins and cells from the literature as a validation, and new experimental measurements in our lab using FTIR spectroscopy to demonstrate broad applicability of this method. Finally, we demonstrate that the end-temperature within which the denaturation is measured is important and changes the kinetics. Specifically, higher Ea and A parameters were found at low end-temperature (50°C) and reduce as end-temperatures increase to 70 °C. This trend is consistent with Arrhenius parameters for cell injury in the literature that are significantly higher for clonogenics (45 – 50 °C) vs. membrane dye assays (60 –70 °C). Future opportunities to monitor cell injury by spectroscopic measurement of protein denaturation are discussed. PMID:25205396

  10. A Parametric Model of Shoulder Articulation for Virtual Assessment of Space Suit Fit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, K. Han; Young, Karen S.; Bernal, Yaritza; Boppana, Abhishektha; Vu, Linh Q.; Benson, Elizabeth A.; Jarvis, Sarah; Rajulu, Sudhakar L.

    2016-01-01

    Shoulder injury is one of the most severe risks that have the potential to impair crewmembers' performance and health in long duration space flight. Overall, 64% of crewmembers experience shoulder pain after extra-vehicular training in a space suit, and 14% of symptomatic crewmembers require surgical repair (Williams & Johnson, 2003). Suboptimal suit fit, in particular at the shoulder region, has been identified as one of the predominant risk factors. However, traditional suit fit assessments and laser scans represent only a single person's data, and thus may not be generalized across wide variations of body shapes and poses. The aim of this work is to develop a software tool based on a statistical analysis of a large dataset of crewmember body shapes. This tool can accurately predict the skin deformation and shape variations for any body size and shoulder pose for a target population, from which the geometry can be exported and evaluated against suit models in commercial CAD software. A preliminary software tool was developed by statistically analyzing 150 body shapes matched with body dimension ranges specified in the Human-Systems Integration Requirements of NASA ("baseline model"). Further, the baseline model was incorporated with shoulder joint articulation ("articulation model"), using additional subjects scanned in a variety of shoulder poses across a pre-specified range of motion. Scan data was cleaned and aligned using body landmarks. The skin deformation patterns were dimensionally reduced and the co-variation with shoulder angles was analyzed. A software tool is currently in development and will be presented in the final proceeding. This tool would allow suit engineers to parametrically generate body shapes in strategically targeted anthropometry dimensions and shoulder poses. This would also enable virtual fit assessments, with which the contact volume and clearance between the suit and body surface can be predictively quantified at reduced time and

  11. Blowout Jets: Hinode X-Ray Jets that Don't Fit the Standard Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, Ronald L.; Cirtain, Jonathan W.; Sterling, Alphonse C.; Falconer, David A.

    2010-01-01

    Nearly half of all H-alpha macrospicules in polar coronal holes appear to be miniature filament eruptions. This suggests that there is a large class of X-ray jets in which the jet-base magnetic arcade undergoes a blowout eruption as in a CME, instead of remaining static as in most solar X-ray jets, the standard jets that fit the model advocated by Shibata. Along with a cartoon depicting the standard model, we present a cartoon depicting the signatures expected of blowout jets in coronal X-ray images. From Hinode/XRT movies and STEREO/EUVI snapshots in polar coronal holes, we present examples of (1) X-ray jets that fit the standard model, and (2) X-ray jets that do not fit the standard model but do have features appropriate for blowout jets. These features are (1) a flare arcade inside the jet-base arcade in addition to the small flare arcade (bright point) outside that standard jets have, (2) a filament of cool (T is approximately 80,000K) plasma that erupts from the core of the jetbase arcade, and (3) an extra jet strand that should not be made by the reconnection for standard jets but could be made by reconnection between the ambient unipolar open field and the opposite-polarity leg of the filament-carrying flux-rope core field of the erupting jet-base arcade. We therefore infer that these non-standard jets are blowout jets, jets made by miniature versions of the sheared-core-arcade eruptions that make CMEs

  12. A Multiple Criteria Decision Modelling approach to selection of estimation techniques for fitting extreme floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duckstein, L.; Bobée, B.; Ashkar, F.

    1991-09-01

    The problem of fitting a probability distribution, here log-Pearson Type III distribution, to extreme floods is considered from the point of view of two numerical and three non-numerical criteria. The six techniques of fitting considered include classical techniques (maximum likelihood, moments of logarithms of flows) and new methods such as mixed moments and the generalized method of moments developed by two of the co-authors. The latter method consists of fitting the distribution using moments of different order, in particular the SAM method (Sundry Averages Method) uses the moments of order 0 (geometric mean), 1 (arithmetic mean), -1 (harmonic mean) and leads to a smaller variance of the parameters. The criteria used to select the method of parameter estimation are: - the two statistical criteria of mean square error and bias; - the two computational criteria of program availability and ease of use; - the user-related criterion of acceptability. These criteria are transformed into value functions or fuzzy set membership functions and then three Multiple Criteria Decision Modelling (MCDM) techniques, namely, composite programming, ELECTRE, and MCQA, are applied to rank the estimation techniques.

  13. Empirical evaluation reveals best fit of a logistic mutation model for human Y-chromosomal microsatellites.

    PubMed

    Jochens, Arne; Caliebe, Amke; Rösler, Uwe; Krawczak, Michael

    2011-12-01

    The rate of microsatellite mutation is dependent upon both the allele length and the repeat motif, but the exact nature of this relationship is still unknown. We analyzed data on the inheritance of human Y-chromosomal microsatellites in father-son duos, taken from 24 published reports and comprising 15,285 directly observable meioses. At the six microsatellites analyzed (DYS19, DYS389I, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392, and DYS393), a total of 162 mutations were observed. For each locus, we employed a maximum-likelihood approach to evaluate one of several single-step mutation models on the basis of the data. For five of the six loci considered, a novel logistic mutation model was found to provide the best fit according to Akaike's information criterion. This implies that the mutation probability at the loci increases (nonlinearly) with allele length at a rate that differs between upward and downward mutations. For DYS392, the best fit was provided by a linear model in which upward and downward mutation probabilities increase equally with allele length. This is the first study to empirically compare different microsatellite mutation models in a locus-specific fashion. PMID:21968190

  14. Empirical Evaluation Reveals Best Fit of a Logistic Mutation Model for Human Y-Chromosomal Microsatellites

    PubMed Central

    Jochens, Arne; Caliebe, Amke; Rösler, Uwe; Krawczak, Michael

    2011-01-01

    The rate of microsatellite mutation is dependent upon both the allele length and the repeat motif, but the exact nature of this relationship is still unknown. We analyzed data on the inheritance of human Y-chromosomal microsatellites in father–son duos, taken from 24 published reports and comprising 15,285 directly observable meioses. At the six microsatellites analyzed (DYS19, DYS389I, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392, and DYS393), a total of 162 mutations were observed. For each locus, we employed a maximum-likelihood approach to evaluate one of several single-step mutation models on the basis of the data. For five of the six loci considered, a novel logistic mutation model was found to provide the best fit according to Akaike’s information criterion. This implies that the mutation probability at the loci increases (nonlinearly) with allele length at a rate that differs between upward and downward mutations. For DYS392, the best fit was provided by a linear model in which upward and downward mutation probabilities increase equally with allele length. This is the first study to empirically compare different microsatellite mutation models in a locus-specific fashion. PMID:21968190

  15. MAGNETICALLY AND BARYONICALLY DOMINATED PHOTOSPHERIC GAMMA-RAY BURST MODEL FITS TO FERMI-LAT OBSERVATIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Veres, Peter; Meszaros, Peter; Zhang, Bin-Bin

    2013-02-10

    We consider gamma-ray burst models where the radiation is dominated by a photospheric region providing the MeV Band spectrum, and an external shock region responsible for the GeV radiation via inverse Compton scattering. We parameterize the initial dynamics through an acceleration law {Gamma}{proportional_to}r {sup {mu}}, with {mu} between 1/3 and 1 to represent the range between an extreme magnetically dominated and a baryonically dominated regime, depending also on the magnetic field configuration. We compare these models to several bright Fermi-LAT bursts, and show that both the time-integrated and the time-resolved spectra, where available, can be well described by these models. We discuss the parameters which result from these fits, and discuss the relative merits and shortcomings of the two models.

  16. Stochastic optimization algorithm selection in hydrological model calibration based on fitness landscape characterization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arsenault, Richard; Brissette, François P.; Poulin, Annie; Côté, Pascal; Martel, Jean-Luc

    2014-05-01

    The process of hydrological model parameter calibration is routinely performed with the help of stochastic optimization algorithms. Many such algorithms have been created and they sometimes provide varying levels of performance (as measured by an efficiency metric such as Nash-Sutcliffe). This is because each algorithm is better suited for one type of optimization problem rather than another. This research project's aim was twofold. First, it was sought upon to find various features in the calibration problem fitness landscapes to map the encountered problem types to the best possible optimization algorithm. Second, the optimal number of model evaluations in order to minimize resources usage and maximize overall model quality was investigated. A total of five stochastic optimization algorithms (SCE-UA, CMAES, DDS, PSO and ASA) were used to calibrate four lumped hydrological models (GR4J, HSAMI, HMETS and MOHYSE) on 421 basins from the US MOPEX database. Each of these combinations was performed using three objective functions (Log(RMSE), NSE, and a metric combining NSE, RMSE and BIAS) to add sufficient diversity to the fitness landscapes. Each run was performed 30 times for statistical analysis. With every parameter set tested during the calibration process, the validation value was taken on a separate period. It was then possible to outline the calibration skill versus the validation skill for the different algorithms. Fitness landscapes were characterized by various metrics, such as the dispersion metric, the mean distance between random points and their respective local minima (found through simple hill-climbing algorithms) and the mean distance between the local minima and the best local optimum found. These metrics were then compared to the calibration score of the various optimization algorithms. Preliminary results tend to show that fitness landscapes presenting a globally convergent structure are more prevalent than other types of landscapes in this

  17. Fitting a Two- Component Scattering Model to Polarimetric SAR Data from Forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freeman, A.

    2007-03-01

    Two simple scattering mechanisms are f itted to polarimetric SAR observations of forests. The mechanisms are canopy scatter from a reciprocal medium with azimuthal symmetry, and a ground scatter term, which can represent double-bounce scatter from a pair of orthogonal surfaces with different d ielectric constants or Bragg scatter from a moderately rough surface, seen through a layer of vertically oriented scatterers. The model is shown to represent the behavior of polarimetric backscatter from a tropical forest and two temperate forest sites, by applying it to data from NASA/JPL's AIRSAR system. Scattering contributions from the two basic scattering mechanisms are estimated for clusters of pixels in polarimetric SAR images. The solution involves the estimation of four parameters from four separate equations. This model fit approach is justified as a simplification of more complicated scattering models, which require many inputs to solve the forward scattering problem. The model is used to develop an understanding of the ground-trunk, double-bounce scattering present in the data, which is seen to vary considerably as a function of incidence angle. Two parameters in the model fit appear to exhibit sensitivity to vegetation canopy structure, which is worth further exploration. Results from the model fit for the ground scattering term are compared with estimates from a forward model and shown to be in good agreement. The behavior of the scattering from the ground-trunk interaction is consistent with the presence of a pseudo-Brewster angle effect for the air- trunk scattering interface. If the Brewster angle is known, it is possible to directly estimate the real part of the dielectric constant of the trunks, a key variable in forward modeling of backscatter from forests. It is also shown how, with a priori knowledge of the forest height, an estimate for the attenuation coefficient of the canopy can be obtained directly from the multi-incidence angle, polarimetric

  18. Mind the Gap! Implications of a Person-Environment Fit Model of Intellectual Disability for Students, Educators, and Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, James R.; Wehmeyer, Michael L.; Hughes, Carolyn

    2010-01-01

    A person-environment fit conceptualization of intellectual disability (ID) requires educators to focus on the gap between a student's competencies and the demands of activities and settings in schools. In this article the implications of the person-environment fit conceptual model are considered in regard to instructional benefits, special…

  19. Trajectory fitting in function space with application to analytic modeling of surfaces

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barger, Raymond L.

    1992-01-01

    A theory for representing a parameter-dependent function as a function trajectory is described. Additionally, a theory for determining a piecewise analytic fit to the trajectory is described. An example is given that illustrates the application of the theory to generating a smooth surface through a discrete set of input cross-section shapes. A simple procedure for smoothing in the parameter direction is discussed, and a computed example is given. Application of the theory to aerodynamic surface modeling is demonstrated by applying it to a blended wing-fuselage surface.

  20. Current status of the standard model CKM fit and constraints on Δ F =2 new physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charles, J.; Deschamps, O.; Descotes-Genon, S.; Lacker, H.; Menzel, A.; Monteil, S.; Niess, V.; Ocariz, J.; Orloff, J.; Perez, A.; Qian, W.; Tisserand, V.; Trabelsi, K.; Urquijo, P.; Vale Silva, L.; CKMfitter Group

    2015-04-01

    This article summarizes the status of the global fit of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) parameters within the Standard Model performed by the CKMfitter group. Special attention is paid to the inputs for the CKM angles α and γ and the status of Bs→μ μ and Bd→μ μ decays. We illustrate the current situation for other unitarity triangles. We also discuss the constraints on generic Δ F =2 new physics. All results have been obtained with the CKMfitter analysis package, featuring the frequentist statistical approach and using Rfit to handle theoretical uncertainties.

  1. Crystallographic observation of 'induced fit' in a cryptophane host–guest model system

    PubMed Central

    Taratula, Olena; Hill, P. Aru; Khan, Najat S.; Carroll, Patrick J.; Dmochowski, Ivan J.

    2010-01-01

    Cryptophane-A, comprised of two cyclotriguaiacylenes joined by three ethylene linkers, is a prototypal organic host molecule that binds reversibly to neutral small molecules via London forces. Of note are trifunctionalized, water-soluble cryptophane-A derivatives, which exhibit exceptional affinity for xenon in aqueous solution. In this paper, we report high-resolution X-ray structures of cryptophane-A and trifunctionalized derivatives in crown–crown and crown–saddle conformations, as well as in complexes with water, methanol, xenon or chloroform. Cryptophane internal volume varied by more than 20% across this series, which exemplifies 'induced fit' in a model host–guest system. PMID:21266998

  2. 21 CFR 1404.900 - Adequate evidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 9 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Adequate evidence. 1404.900 Section 1404.900 Food and Drugs OFFICE OF NATIONAL DRUG CONTROL POLICY GOVERNMENTWIDE DEBARMENT AND SUSPENSION (NONPROCUREMENT) Definitions § 1404.900 Adequate evidence. Adequate evidence means information sufficient to support the reasonable belief that a particular...

  3. 29 CFR 98.900 - Adequate evidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Adequate evidence. 98.900 Section 98.900 Labor Office of the Secretary of Labor GOVERNMENTWIDE DEBARMENT AND SUSPENSION (NONPROCUREMENT) Definitions § 98.900 Adequate evidence. Adequate evidence means information sufficient to support the reasonable belief that a...

  4. A gamma variate model that includes stretched exponential is a better fit for gastric emptying data from mice

    PubMed Central

    Bajzer, Željko; Gibbons, Simon J.; Coleman, Heidi D.; Linden, David R.

    2015-01-01

    Noninvasive breath tests for gastric emptying are important techniques for understanding the changes in gastric motility that occur in disease or in response to drugs. Mice are often used as an animal model; however, the gamma variate model currently used for data analysis does not always fit the data appropriately. The aim of this study was to determine appropriate mathematical models to better fit mouse gastric emptying data including when two peaks are present in the gastric emptying curve. We fitted 175 gastric emptying data sets with two standard models (gamma variate and power exponential), with a gamma variate model that includes stretched exponential and with a proposed two-component model. The appropriateness of the fit was assessed by the Akaike Information Criterion. We found that extension of the gamma variate model to include a stretched exponential improves the fit, which allows for a better estimation of T1/2 and Tlag. When two distinct peaks in gastric emptying are present, a two-component model is required for the most appropriate fit. We conclude that use of a stretched exponential gamma variate model and when appropriate a two-component model will result in a better estimate of physiologically relevant parameters when analyzing mouse gastric emptying data. PMID:26045615

  5. Limited-information goodness-of-fit testing of hierarchical item factor models.

    PubMed

    Cai, Li; Hansen, Mark

    2013-05-01

    In applications of item response theory, assessment of model fit is a critical issue. Recently, limited-information goodness-of-fit testing has received increased attention in the psychometrics literature. In contrast to full-information test statistics such as Pearson's X(2) or the likelihood ratio G(2) , these limited-information tests utilize lower-order marginal tables rather than the full contingency table. A notable example is Maydeu-Olivares and colleagues'M2 family of statistics based on univariate and bivariate margins. When the contingency table is sparse, tests based on M2 retain better Type I error rate control than the full-information tests and can be more powerful. While in principle the M2 statistic can be extended to test hierarchical multidimensional item factor models (e.g., bifactor and testlet models), the computation is non-trivial. To obtain M2 , a researcher often has to obtain (many thousands of) marginal probabilities, derivatives, and weights. Each of these must be approximated with high-dimensional numerical integration. We propose a dimension reduction method that can take advantage of the hierarchical factor structure so that the integrals can be approximated far more efficiently. We also propose a new test statistic that can be substantially better calibrated and more powerful than the original M2 statistic when the test is long and the items are polytomous. We use simulations to demonstrate the performance of our new methods and illustrate their effectiveness with applications to real data. PMID:22642552

  6. SpectrRelax: An application for Mössbauer spectra modeling and fitting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsnev, M. E.; Rusakov, V. S.

    2012-10-01

    The SpectrRelax application was created for analysis and fitting of absorption and emission Mossbauer spectra of isotopes with 1/2 ↔ 3/2 transitions. Available models include a single Pseudo-Voigt line, doublet, and a sextet, a number of relaxation models, and a distribution of hyperfine/relaxation parameters of any model. SpectRelax can evaluate user supplied analytical expressions of model parameters and their error estimates. Complex parameter constraints or even new models can be implemented by setting parameter values to analytical expressions. Optimal model parameters search is performed using a maximum likelihood criterion in a Levenberg-Marquardt (L-M) algorithm. In the search process, a matrix of linear correlation coefficients between model parameters is calculated along with the error estimates, which allows better understanding of the optimized results. Partial derivatives of the model functions are evaluated using a "dual numbers" algorithm, which provides exact derivatives values at any point and improves the L-M method convergence. SpectrRelax runs under Windows operating systems by Microsoft. The application has a modern graphical user interface with extensive model editing and preview capabilities.

  7. A fungal growth model fitted to carbon-limited dynamics of Rhizoctonia solani.

    PubMed

    Jeger, M J; Lamour, A; Gilligan, C A; Otten, W

    2008-01-01

    Here, a quasi-steady-state approximation was used to simplify a mathematical model for fungal growth in carbon-limiting systems, and this was fitted to growth dynamics of the soil-borne plant pathogen and saprotroph Rhizoctonia solani. The model identified a criterion for invasion into carbon-limited environments with two characteristics driving fungal growth, namely the carbon decomposition rate and a measure of carbon use efficiency. The dynamics of fungal spread through a population of sites with either low (0.0074 mg) or high (0.016 mg) carbon content were well described by the simplified model with faster colonization for the carbon-rich environment. Rhizoctonia solani responded to a lower carbon availability by increasing the carbon use efficiency and the carbon decomposition rate following colonization. The results are discussed in relation to fungal invasion thresholds in terms of carbon nutrition. PMID:18312538

  8. Fitting response models of benthic community structure to abiotic variables in a polluted estuarine system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    González-Oreja, José Antonio; Saiz-Salinas, José Ignacio

    1999-07-01

    Models of the macrozoobenthic community responses to abiotic variables measured in the polluted Bilbao estuary were obtained by multiple linear regression analyses. Total, Oligochaeta and Nematoda abundance and biomass were considered as dependent variables. Intertidal level, dissolved oxygen at the bottom of the water column (DOXB) and organic content of the sediment were selected by the analyses as the three principal explanatory variables. Goodness-of-fit of the models was high ( overlinex=71.3% ). Total abundance and biomass increased as a linear function of DOXB. The principal outcome of the vast sewage scheme currently in progress in the study area is an important contributor of increasing DOXB levels. The models exposed in this paper will serve as a tool to evaluate the expected changes in the near future.

  9. A goodness-of-fit test for capture-recapture model M(t) under closure

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stanley, T.R.; Burnham, K.P.

    1999-01-01

    A new, fully efficient goodness-of-fit test for the time-specific closed-population capture-recapture model M(t) is presented. This test is based on the residual distribution of the capture history data given the maximum likelihood parameter estimates under model M(t), is partitioned into informative components, and is based on chi-square statistics. Comparison of this test with Leslie's test (Leslie, 1958, Journal of Animal Ecology 27, 84- 86) for model M(t), using Monte Carlo simulations, shows the new test generally outperforms Leslie's test. The new test is frequently computable when Leslie's test is not, has Type I error rates that are closer to nominal error rates than Leslie's test, and is sensitive to behavioral variation and heterogeneity in capture probabilities. Leslie's test is not sensitive to behavioral variation in capture probabilities but, when computable, has greater power to detect heterogeneity than the new test.

  10. GRace: a MATLAB-based application for fitting the discrimination-association model.

    PubMed

    Stefanutti, Luca; Vianello, Michelangelo; Anselmi, Pasquale; Robusto, Egidio

    2014-01-01

    The Implicit Association Test (IAT) is a computerized two-choice discrimination task in which stimuli have to be categorized as belonging to target categories or attribute categories by pressing, as quickly and accurately as possible, one of two response keys. The discrimination association model has been recently proposed for the analysis of reaction time and accuracy of an individual respondent to the IAT. The model disentangles the influences of three qualitatively different components on the responses to the IAT: stimuli discrimination, automatic association, and termination criterion. The article presents General Race (GRace), a MATLAB-based application for fitting the discrimination association model to IAT data. GRace has been developed for Windows as a standalone application. It is user-friendly and does not require any programming experience. The use of GRace is illustrated on the data of a Coca Cola-Pepsi Cola IAT, and the results of the analysis are interpreted and discussed. PMID:26054728

  11. Fitting mathematical models to describe the rheological behaviour of chocolate pastes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barbosa, Carla; Diogo, Filipa; Alves, M. Rui

    2016-06-01

    The flow behavior is of utmost importance for the chocolate industry. The objective of this work was to study two mathematical models, Casson and Windhab models that can be used to fit chocolate rheological data and evaluate which better infers or previews the rheological behaviour of different chocolate pastes. Rheological properties (viscosity, shear stress and shear rates) were obtained with a rotational viscometer equipped with a concentric cylinder. The chocolate samples were white chocolate and chocolate with varying percentages in cacao (55%, 70% and 83%). The results showed that the Windhab model was the best to describe the flow behaviour of all the studied samples with higher determination coefficients (r2 > 0.9).

  12. UROX 2.0: an interactive tool for fitting atomic models into electron-microscopy reconstructions

    PubMed Central

    Siebert, Xavier; Navaza, Jorge

    2009-01-01

    Electron microscopy of a macromolecular structure can lead to three-dimensional reconstructions with resolutions that are typically in the 30–10 Å range and sometimes even beyond 10 Å. Fitting atomic models of the individual components of the macromolecular structure (e.g. those obtained by X-ray crystallo­graphy or nuclear magnetic resonance) into an electron-microscopy map allows the interpretation of the latter at near-atomic resolution, providing insight into the interactions between the components. Graphical software is presented that was designed for the interactive fitting and refinement of atomic models into electron-microscopy reconstructions. Several characteristics enable it to be applied over a wide range of cases and resolutions. Firstly, calculations are performed in reciprocal space, which results in fast algorithms. This allows the entire reconstruction (or at least a sizeable portion of it) to be used by taking into account the symmetry of the reconstruction both in the calculations and in the graphical display. Secondly, atomic models can be placed graphically in the map while the correlation between the model-based electron density and the electron-microscopy reconstruction is computed and displayed in real time. The positions and orientations of the models are refined by a least-squares minimization. Thirdly, normal-mode calculations can be used to simulate conformational changes between the atomic model of an individual component and its corresponding density within a macromolecular complex determined by electron microscopy. These features are illustrated using three practical cases with different symmetries and resolutions. The software, together with examples and user instructions, is available free of charge at http://mem.ibs.fr/UROX/. PMID:19564685

  13. A History of Regression and Related Model-Fitting in the Earth Sciences (1636?-2000)

    SciTech Connect

    Howarth, Richard J.

    2001-12-15

    The (statistical) modeling of the behavior of a dependent variate as a function of one or more predictors provides examples of model-fitting which span the development of the earth sciences from the 17th Century to the present. The historical development of these methods and their subsequent application is reviewed. Bond's predictions (c. 1636 and 1668) of change in the magnetic declination at London may be the earliest attempt to fit such models to geophysical data. Following publication of Newton's theory of gravitation in 1726, analysis of data on the length of a 1{sup o} meridian arc, and the length of a pendulum beating seconds, as a function of sin{sup 2}(latitude), was used to determine the ellipticity of the oblate spheroid defining the Figure of the Earth. The pioneering computational methods of Mayer in 1750, Boscovich in 1755, and Lambert in 1765, and the subsequent independent discoveries of the principle of least squares by Gauss in 1799, Legendre in 1805, and Adrain in 1808, and its later substantiation on the basis of probability theory by Gauss in 1809 were all applied to the analysis of such geodetic and geophysical data. Notable later applications include: the geomagnetic survey of Ireland by Lloyd, Sabine, and Ross in 1836, Gauss's model of the terrestrial magnetic field in 1838, and Airy's 1845 analysis of the residuals from a fit to pendulum lengths, from which he recognized the anomalous character of measurements of gravitational force which had been made on islands. In the early 20th Century applications to geological topics proliferated, but the computational burden effectively held back applications of multivariate analysis. Following World War II, the arrival of digital computers in universities in the 1950s facilitated computation, and fitting linear or polynomial models as a function of geographic coordinates, trend surface analysis, became popular during the 1950-60s. The inception of geostatistics in France at this time by Matheron had

  14. Travelling wave expansion: a model fitting approach to the inverse problem of elasticity reconstruction.

    PubMed

    Baghani, Ali; Salcudean, Septimiu; Honarvar, Mohammad; Sahebjavaher, Ramin S; Rohling, Robert; Sinkus, Ralph

    2011-08-01

    In this paper, a novel approach to the problem of elasticity reconstruction is introduced. In this approach, the solution of the wave equation is expanded as a sum of waves travelling in different directions sharing a common wave number. In particular, the solutions for the scalar and vector potentials which are related to the dilatational and shear components of the displacement respectively are expanded as sums of travelling waves. This solution is then used as a model and fitted to the measured displacements. The value of the shear wave number which yields the best fit is then used to find the elasticity at each spatial point. The main advantage of this method over direct inversion methods is that, instead of taking the derivatives of noisy measurement data, the derivatives are taken on the analytical model. This improves the results of the inversion. The dilatational and shear components of the displacement can also be computed as a byproduct of the method, without taking any derivatives. Experimental results show the effectiveness of this technique in magnetic resonance elastography. Comparisons are made with other state-of-the-art techniques. PMID:21813354

  15. Modeling the Time Evolution of QSH Equilibria in MST Plasmas Using V3FIT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boguski, J.; Nornberg, M.; Munaretto, S.; Chapman, B. E.; Cianciosa, M.; Terry, P. W.; Hanson, J.

    2015-11-01

    High current and low density RFP plasmas tend towards a 3D configuration, called Quasi-Single Helicity (QSH), characterized by a dominant core helical mode. V3FIT utilizes multiple internal and edge diagnostics to reconstruct the non-axisymmetric magnetic equilibrium of the QSH state. Performing multiple reconstructions at different stages in the QSH cycle is used to learn about the time dynamics of the QSH state. Recent work on modeling a shear-suppression mechanism for QSH formation has produced a predator-prey model of the time dynamics that reproduces the observed behavior, in particular the increased persistence of the QSH state with increased plasma current. Either magnetic or flow shear can facilitate QSH formation. The magnetic shear dependence of QSH is analyzed using V3FIT reconstructions of magnetic equilibrium constrained by internal measurements of density and temperature as well as soft x-ray emission. Fluctuations in the flux surface structure are compared against the measured temperature and density fluctuations and the reconstructed temperature and density profiles are examined to look for evidence of barriers to particle and heat transport. This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. DOE.

  16. Estimation of high-resolution dust column density maps. Empirical model fits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Juvela, M.; Montillaud, J.

    2013-09-01

    Context. Sub-millimetre dust emission is an important tracer of column density N of dense interstellar clouds. One has to combine surface brightness information at different spatial resolutions, and specific methods are needed to derive N at a resolution higher than the lowest resolution of the observations. Some methods have been discussed in the literature, including a method (in the following, method B) that constructs the N estimate in stages, where the smallest spatial scales being derived only use the shortest wavelength maps. Aims: We propose simple model fitting as a flexible way to estimate high-resolution column density maps. Our goal is to evaluate the accuracy of this procedure and to determine whether it is a viable alternative for making these maps. Methods: The new method consists of model maps of column density (or intensity at a reference wavelength) and colour temperature. The model is fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, comparing model predictions with observations at their native resolution. We analyse simulated surface brightness maps and compare its accuracy with method B and the results that would be obtained using high-resolution observations without noise. Results: The new method is able to produce reliable column density estimates at a resolution significantly higher than the lowest resolution of the input maps. Compared to method B, it is relatively resilient against the effects of noise. The method is computationally more demanding, but is feasible even in the analysis of large Herschel maps. Conclusions: The proposed empirical modelling method E is demonstrated to be a good alternative for calculating high-resolution column density maps, even with considerable super-resolution. Both methods E and B include the potential for further improvements, e.g., in the form of better a priori constraints.

  17. Lifting a veil on diversity: a Bayesian approach to fitting relative-abundance models.

    PubMed

    Golicher, Duncan J; O'Hara, Robert B; Ruíz-Montoya, Lorena; Cayuela, Luis

    2006-02-01

    Bayesian methods incorporate prior knowledge into a statistical analysis. This prior knowledge is usually restricted to assumptions regarding the form of probability distributions of the parameters of interest, leaving their values to be determined mainly through the data. Here we show how a Bayesian approach can be applied to the problem of drawing inference regarding species abundance distributions and comparing diversity indices between sites. The classic log series and the lognormal models of relative- abundance distribution are apparently quite different in form. The first is a sampling distribution while the other is a model of abundance of the underlying population. Bayesian methods help unite these two models in a common framework. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation can be used to fit both distributions as small hierarchical models with shared common assumptions. Sampling error can be assumed to follow a Poisson distribution. Species not found in a sample, but suspected to be present in the region or community of interest, can be given zero abundance. This not only simplifies the process of model fitting, but also provides a convenient way of calculating confidence intervals for diversity indices. The method is especially useful when a comparison of species diversity between sites with different sample sizes is the key motivation behind the research. We illustrate the potential of the approach using data on fruit-feeding butterflies in southern Mexico. We conclude that, once all assumptions have been made transparent, a single data set may provide support for the belief that diversity is negatively affected by anthropogenic forest disturbance. Bayesian methods help to apply theory regarding the distribution of abundance in ecological communities to applied conservation. PMID:16705973

  18. Observations from using models to fit the gas production of varying volume test cells and landfills.

    PubMed

    Lamborn, Julia

    2012-12-01

    Landfill operators are looking for more accurate models to predict waste degradation and landfill gas production. The simple microbial growth and decay models, whilst being easy to use, have been shown to be inaccurate. Many of the newer and more complex (component) models are highly parameter hungry and many of the required parameters have not been collected or measured at full-scale landfills. This paper compares the results of using different models (LANDGEM, HBM, and two Monod models developed by the author) to fit the gas production of laboratory scale, field test cell and full-scale landfills and discusses some observations that can be made regarding the scalability of gas generation rates. The comparison of these results show that the fast degradation rate that occurs at laboratory scale is not replicated at field-test cell and full-scale landfills. At small scale, all the models predict a slower rate of gas generation than actually occurs. At field test cell and full-scale a number of models predict a faster gas generation than actually occurs. Areas for future work have been identified, which include investigations into the capture efficiency of gas extraction systems and into the parameter sensitivity and identification of the critical parameters for field-test cell and full-scale landfill predication. PMID:22796013

  19. Fitting a 3-D analytic model of the coronal mass ejection to observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gibson, S. E.; Biesecker, D.; Fisher, R.; Howard, R. A.; Thompson, B. J.

    1997-01-01

    The application of an analytic magnetohydrodynamic model is presented to observations of the time-dependent explusion of 3D coronal mass ejections (CMEs) out of the solar corona. This model relates the white-light appearance of the CME to its internal magnetic field, which takes the form of a closed bubble, filled with a partly anchored, twisted magnetic flux rope and embedded in an otherwise open background field. The density distribution frozen into the expanding CME expanding field is fully 3D, and can be integrated along the line of sight to reproduce observations of scattered white light. The model is able to reproduce the three conspicuous features often associated with CMEs as observed with white-light coronagraphs: a surrounding high-density region, an internal low-density cavity, and a high-density core. The model also describes the self-similar radial expansion of these structures. By varying the model parameters, the model can be fitted directly to observations of CMEs. It is shown how the model can quantitatively match the polarized brightness contrast of a dark cavity emerging through the lower corona as observed by the HAO Mauna Loa K-coronameter to within the noise level of the data.

  20. Improving the Fit of a Land-Surface Model to Data Using its Adjoint

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raoult, Nina; Jupp, Tim; Cox, Peter; Luke, Catherine

    2016-04-01

    Land-surface models (LSMs) are crucial components of the Earth System Models (ESMs) which are used to make coupled climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) is the land-surface model used in the climate and weather forecast models of the UK Met Office. In this study, JULES is automatically differentiated using commercial software from FastOpt, resulting in an analytical gradient, or adjoint, of the model. Using this adjoint, the adJULES parameter estimation system has been developed, to search for locally optimum parameter sets by calibrating against observations. We present an introduction to the adJULES system and demonstrate its ability to improve the model-data fit using eddy covariance measurements of gross primary production (GPP) and latent heat (LE) fluxes. adJULES also has the ability to calibrate over multiple sites simultaneously. This feature is used to define new optimised parameter values for the 5 Plant Functional Types (PFTS) in JULES. The optimised PFT-specific parameters improve the performance of JULES over 90% of the FLUXNET sites used in the study. These reductions in error are shown and compared to reductions found due to site-specific optimisations. Finally, we show that calculation of the 2nd derivative of JULES allows us to produce posterior probability density functions of the parameters and how knowledge of parameter values is constrained by observations.

  1. Mutation-selection models of coding sequence evolution with site-heterogeneous amino acid fitness profiles.

    PubMed

    Rodrigue, Nicolas; Philippe, Hervé; Lartillot, Nicolas

    2010-03-01

    Modeling the interplay between mutation and selection at the molecular level is key to evolutionary studies. To this end, codon-based evolutionary models have been proposed as pertinent means of studying long-range evolutionary patterns and are widely used. However, these approaches have not yet consolidated results from amino acid level phylogenetic studies showing that selection acting on proteins displays strong site-specific effects, which translate into heterogeneous amino acid propensities across the columns of alignments; related codon-level studies have instead focused on either modeling a single selective context for all codon columns, or a separate selective context for each codon column, with the former strategy deemed too simplistic and the latter deemed overparameterized. Here, we integrate recent developments in nonparametric statistical approaches to propose a probabilistic model that accounts for the heterogeneity of amino acid fitness profiles across the coding positions of a gene. We apply the model to a dozen real protein-coding gene alignments and find it to produce biologically plausible inferences, for instance, as pertaining to site-specific amino acid constraints, as well as distributions of scaled selection coefficients. In their account of mutational features as well as the heterogeneous regimes of selection at the amino acid level, the modeling approaches studied here can form a backdrop for several extensions, accounting for other selective features, for variable population size, or for subtleties of mutational features, all with parameterizations couched within population-genetic theory. PMID:20176949

  2. Explicit finite element modelling of the impaction of metal press-fit acetabular components.

    PubMed

    Hothi, H S; Busfield, J J C; Shelton, J C

    2011-03-01

    Metal press-fit cups and shells are widely used in hip resurfacing and total hip replacement procedures. These acetabular components are inserted into a reamed acetabula cavity by either impacting their inner polar surface (shells) or outer rim (cups). Two-dimensional explicit dynamics axisymmetric finite element models were developed to simulate these impaction methods. Greater impact velocities were needed to insert the components when the interference fit was increased; a minimum velocity of 2 m/s was required to fully seat a component with a 2 mm interference between the bone and outer diameter. Changing the component material from cobalt-chromium to titanium alloy resulted in a reduction in the number of impacts on the pole to seat it from 14 to nine. Of greatest significance, it was found that locking a rigid cap to the cup or shell rim resulted in up to nine fewer impactions being necessary to seat it than impacting directly on the polar surface or using a cap free from the rim of the component, as is the case with many commercial resurfacing cup impaction devices currently used. This is important to impactor design and could make insertion easier and also reduce acetabula bone damage. PMID:21485331

  3. Spectral Observations of Ellerman Bombs and Fitting with a Two-cloud Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Jie; Ding, M. D.; Li, Ying; Fang, Cheng; Cao, Wenda

    2014-09-01

    We study the Hα and Ca II 8542 Å line spectra of four typical Ellerman bombs (EBs) in the active region NOAA 11765 on 2013 June 6, observed with the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph installed at the 1.6 m New Solar Telescope at Big Bear Solar Observatory. Considering that EBs may occur in a restricted region in the lower atmosphere, and that their spectral lines show particular features, we propose a two-cloud model to fit the observed line profiles. The lower cloud can account for the wing emission, and the upper cloud is mainly responsible for the absorption at line center. After choosing carefully the free parameters, we get satisfactory fitting results. As expected, the lower cloud shows an increase of the source function, corresponding to a temperature increase of 400-1000 K in EBs relative to the quiet Sun. This is consistent with previous results deduced from semi-empirical models and confirms that local heating occurs in the lower atmosphere during the appearance of EBs. We also find that the optical depths can increase to some extent in both the lower and upper clouds, which may result from either direct heating in the lower cloud, or illumination by an enhanced radiation on the upper cloud. The velocities derived from this method, however, are different from those obtained using the traditional bisector method, implying that one should be cautious when interpreting this parameter. The two-cloud model can thus be used as an efficient method to deduce the basic physical parameters of EBs.

  4. ANALYTICAL LIGHT CURVE MODELS OF SUPERLUMINOUS SUPERNOVAE: {chi}{sup 2}-MINIMIZATION OF PARAMETER FITS

    SciTech Connect

    Chatzopoulos, E.; Wheeler, J. Craig; Vinko, J.; Horvath, Z. L.; Nagy, A.

    2013-08-10

    We present fits of generalized semi-analytic supernova (SN) light curve (LC) models for a variety of power inputs including {sup 56}Ni and {sup 56}Co radioactive decay, magnetar spin-down, and forward and reverse shock heating due to supernova ejecta-circumstellar matter (CSM) interaction. We apply our models to the observed LCs of the H-rich superluminous supernovae (SLSN-II) SN 2006gy, SN 2006tf, SN 2008am, SN 2008es, CSS100217, the H-poor SLSN-I SN 2005ap, SCP06F6, SN 2007bi, SN 2010gx, and SN 2010kd, as well as to the interacting SN 2008iy and PTF 09uj. Our goal is to determine the dominant mechanism that powers the LCs of these extraordinary events and the physical conditions involved in each case. We also present a comparison of our semi-analytical results with recent results from numerical radiation hydrodynamics calculations in the particular case of SN 2006gy in order to explore the strengths and weaknesses of our models. We find that CS shock heating produced by ejecta-CSM interaction provides a better fit to the LCs of most of the events we examine. We discuss the possibility that collision of supernova ejecta with hydrogen-deficient CSM accounts for some of the hydrogen-deficient SLSNe (SLSN-I) and may be a plausible explanation for the explosion mechanism of SN 2007bi, the pair-instability supernova candidate. We characterize and discuss issues of parameter degeneracy.

  5. Spectral observations of Ellerman bombs and fitting with a two-cloud model

    SciTech Connect

    Hong, Jie; Ding, M. D.; Li, Ying; Fang, Cheng; Cao, Wenda

    2014-09-01

    We study the Hα and Ca II 8542 Å line spectra of four typical Ellerman bombs (EBs) in the active region NOAA 11765 on 2013 June 6, observed with the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph installed at the 1.6 m New Solar Telescope at Big Bear Solar Observatory. Considering that EBs may occur in a restricted region in the lower atmosphere, and that their spectral lines show particular features, we propose a two-cloud model to fit the observed line profiles. The lower cloud can account for the wing emission, and the upper cloud is mainly responsible for the absorption at line center. After choosing carefully the free parameters, we get satisfactory fitting results. As expected, the lower cloud shows an increase of the source function, corresponding to a temperature increase of 400-1000 K in EBs relative to the quiet Sun. This is consistent with previous results deduced from semi-empirical models and confirms that local heating occurs in the lower atmosphere during the appearance of EBs. We also find that the optical depths can increase to some extent in both the lower and upper clouds, which may result from either direct heating in the lower cloud, or illumination by an enhanced radiation on the upper cloud. The velocities derived from this method, however, are different from those obtained using the traditional bisector method, implying that one should be cautious when interpreting this parameter. The two-cloud model can thus be used as an efficient method to deduce the basic physical parameters of EBs.

  6. Optimized aerodynamic design process for subsonic transport wing fitted with winglets. [wind tunnel model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuhlman, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    The aerodynamic design of a wind-tunnel model of a wing representative of that of a subsonic jet transport aircraft, fitted with winglets, was performed using two recently developed optimal wing-design computer programs. Both potential flow codes use a vortex lattice representation of the near-field of the aerodynamic surfaces for determination of the required mean camber surfaces for minimum induced drag, and both codes use far-field induced drag minimization procedures to obtain the required spanloads. One code uses a discrete vortex wake model for this far-field drag computation, while the second uses a 2-D advanced panel wake model. Wing camber shapes for the two codes are very similar, but the resulting winglet camber shapes differ widely. Design techniques and considerations for these two wind-tunnel models are detailed, including a description of the necessary modifications of the design geometry to format it for use by a numerically controlled machine for the actual model construction.

  7. Electrically detected magnetic resonance modeling and fitting: An equivalent circuit approach

    SciTech Connect

    Leite, D. M. G.; Batagin-Neto, A.; Nunes-Neto, O.; Gómez, J. A.; Graeff, C. F. O.

    2014-01-21

    The physics of electrically detected magnetic resonance (EDMR) quadrature spectra is investigated. An equivalent circuit model is proposed in order to retrieve crucial information in a variety of different situations. This model allows the discrimination and determination of spectroscopic parameters associated to distinct resonant spin lines responsible for the total signal. The model considers not just the electrical response of the sample but also features of the measuring circuit and their influence on the resulting spectral lines. As a consequence, from our model, it is possible to separate different regimes, which depend basically on the modulation frequency and the RC constant of the circuit. In what is called the high frequency regime, it is shown that the sign of the signal can be determined. Recent EDMR spectra from Alq{sub 3} based organic light emitting diodes, as well as from a-Si:H reported in the literature, were successfully fitted by the model. Accurate values of g-factor and linewidth of the resonant lines were obtained.

  8. Statistics of dark matter substructure - I. Model and universal fitting functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Fangzhou; van den Bosch, Frank C.

    2016-05-01

    We present a new, semi-analytical model describing the evolution of dark matter subhaloes. The model uses merger trees constructed using the method of Parkinson et al. to describe the masses and redshifts of subhaloes at accretion, which are subsequently evolved using a simple model for the orbit-averaged mass-loss rates. The model is extremely fast, treats subhaloes of all orders, accounts for scatter in orbital properties and halo concentrations, uses a simple recipe to convert subhalo mass to maximum circular velocity, and considers subhalo disruption. The model is calibrated to accurately reproduce the average subhalo mass and velocity functions in numerical simulations. We demonstrate that, on average, the mass fraction in subhaloes is tightly correlated with the `dynamical age' of the host halo, defined as the number of halo dynamical times that have elapsed since its formation. Using this relation, we present universal fitting functions for the evolved and unevolved subhalo mass and velocity functions that are valid for a broad range in host halo mass, redshift and Λ cold dark matter cosmology.

  9. Comparing Smoothing Techniques for Fitting the Nonlinear Effect of Covariate in Cox Models

    PubMed Central

    Roshani, Daem; Ghaderi, Ebrahim

    2016-01-01

    Background and Objective: Cox model is a popular model in survival analysis, which assumes linearity of the covariate on the log hazard function, While continuous covariates can affect the hazard through more complicated nonlinear functional forms and therefore, Cox models with continuous covariates are prone to misspecification due to not fitting the correct functional form for continuous covariates. In this study, a smooth nonlinear covariate effect would be approximated by different spline functions. Material and Methods: We applied three flexible nonparametric smoothing techniques for nonlinear covariate effect in the Cox models: penalized splines, restricted cubic splines and natural splines. Akaike information criterion (AIC) and degrees of freedom were used to smoothing parameter selection in penalized splines model. The ability of nonparametric methods was evaluated to recover the true functional form of linear, quadratic and nonlinear functions, using different simulated sample sizes. Data analysis was carried out using R 2.11.0 software and significant levels were considered 0.05. Results: Based on AIC, the penalized spline method had consistently lower mean square error compared to others to selection of smoothed parameter. The same result was obtained with real data. Conclusion: Penalized spline smoothing method, with AIC to smoothing parameter selection, was more accurate in evaluate of relation between covariate and log hazard function than other methods. PMID:27041809

  10. Fitting Data to Model: Structural Equation Modeling Diagnosis Using Two Scatter Plots

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yuan, Ke-Hai; Hayashi, Kentaro

    2010-01-01

    This article introduces two simple scatter plots for model diagnosis in structural equation modeling. One plot contrasts a residual-based M-distance of the structural model with the M-distance for the factor score. It contains information on outliers, good leverage observations, bad leverage observations, and normal cases. The other plot contrasts…

  11. MEMLET: An Easy-to-Use Tool for Data Fitting and Model Comparison Using Maximum-Likelihood Estimation.

    PubMed

    Woody, Michael S; Lewis, John H; Greenberg, Michael J; Goldman, Yale E; Ostap, E Michael

    2016-07-26

    We present MEMLET (MATLAB-enabled maximum-likelihood estimation tool), a simple-to-use and powerful program for utilizing maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) for parameter estimation from data produced by single-molecule and other biophysical experiments. The program is written in MATLAB and includes a graphical user interface, making it simple to integrate into the existing workflows of many users without requiring programming knowledge. We give a comparison of MLE and other fitting techniques (e.g., histograms and cumulative frequency distributions), showing how MLE often outperforms other fitting methods. The program includes a variety of features. 1) MEMLET fits probability density functions (PDFs) for many common distributions (exponential, multiexponential, Gaussian, etc.), as well as user-specified PDFs without the need for binning. 2) It can take into account experimental limits on the size of the shortest or longest detectable event (i.e., instrument "dead time") when fitting to PDFs. The proper modification of the PDFs occurs automatically in the program and greatly increases the accuracy of fitting the rates and relative amplitudes in multicomponent exponential fits. 3) MEMLET offers model testing (i.e., single-exponential versus double-exponential) using the log-likelihood ratio technique, which shows whether additional fitting parameters are statistically justifiable. 4) Global fitting can be used to fit data sets from multiple experiments to a common model. 5) Confidence intervals can be determined via bootstrapping utilizing parallel computation to increase performance. Easy-to-follow tutorials show how these features can be used. This program packages all of these techniques into a simple-to-use and well-documented interface to increase the accessibility of MLE fitting. PMID:27463130

  12. A new fit-for-purpose model testing framework: Decision Crash Tests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tolson, Bryan; Craig, James

    2016-04-01

    Decision-makers in water resources are often burdened with selecting appropriate multi-million dollar strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate or land use change. Unfortunately, the suitability of existing hydrologic simulation models to accurately inform decision-making is in doubt because the testing procedures used to evaluate model utility (i.e., model validation) are insufficient. For example, many authors have identified that a good standard framework for model testing called the Klemes Crash Tests (KCTs), which are the classic model validation procedures from Klemeš (1986) that Andréassian et al. (2009) rename as KCTs, have yet to become common practice in hydrology. Furthermore, Andréassian et al. (2009) claim that the progression of hydrological science requires widespread use of KCT and the development of new crash tests. Existing simulation (not forecasting) model testing procedures such as KCTs look backwards (checking for consistency between simulations and past observations) rather than forwards (explicitly assessing if the model is likely to support future decisions). We propose a fundamentally different, forward-looking, decision-oriented hydrologic model testing framework based upon the concept of fit-for-purpose model testing that we call Decision Crash Tests or DCTs. Key DCT elements are i) the model purpose (i.e., decision the model is meant to support) must be identified so that model outputs can be mapped to management decisions ii) the framework evaluates not just the selected hydrologic model but the entire suite of model-building decisions associated with model discretization, calibration etc. The framework is constructed to directly and quantitatively evaluate model suitability. The DCT framework is applied to a model building case study on the Grand River in Ontario, Canada. A hypothetical binary decision scenario is analysed (upgrade or not upgrade the existing flood control structure) under two different sets of model building

  13. Fitting dynamic models to the Geosat sea level observations in the tropical Pacific Ocean. I - A free wave model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fu, Lee-Lueng; Vazquez, Jorge; Perigaud, Claire

    1991-01-01

    Free, equatorially trapped sinusoidal wave solutions to a linear model on an equatorial beta plane are used to fit the Geosat altimetric sea level observations in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The Kalman filter technique is used to estimate the wave amplitude and phase from the data. The estimation is performed at each time step by combining the model forecast with the observation in an optimal fashion utilizing the respective error covariances. The model error covariance is determined such that the performance of the model forecast is optimized. It is found that the dominant observed features can be described qualitatively by basin-scale Kelvin waves and the first meridional-mode Rossby waves. Quantitatively, however, only 23 percent of the signal variance can be accounted for by this simple model.

  14. Photothermal model fitting in the complex plane for thermal properties determination in solids.

    PubMed

    Zambrano-Arjona, M A; Peñuñuri, F; Acosta, M; Riech, I; Medina-Esquivel, R A; Martínez-Torres, P; Alvarado-Gil, J J

    2013-02-01

    Thermal properties of solids are obtained by fitting the exact complex photothermal model to the normalized photoacoustic (PA) signal in the front configuration. Simple closed-form expressions for the amplitude and phase are presented in all frequency ranges. In photoacoustic it has been common practice to assume that all the absorptions of radiation take place in the sample. However, in order to obtain the accurate thermal properties it is necessary to consider the PA signal contributions produced at the cell walls. Such contributions were considered in our study. To demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed methodology, commercial stainless steel layers AISI 302 were analyzed. It is shown that using our approach the obtained thermal diffusivity and effusivity were in good agreement with those reported in the literature. Also, a detailed procedure for the calculation of the standard error in the thermal properties is discussed. PMID:23464238

  15. Photothermal model fitting in the complex plane for thermal properties determination in solids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zambrano-Arjona, M. A.; Peñuñuri, F.; Acosta, M.; Riech, I.; Medina-Esquivel, R. A.; Martínez-Torres, P.; Alvarado-Gil, J. J.

    2013-02-01

    Thermal properties of solids are obtained by fitting the exact complex photothermal model to the normalized photoacoustic (PA) signal in the front configuration. Simple closed-form expressions for the amplitude and phase are presented in all frequency ranges. In photoacoustic it has been common practice to assume that all the absorptions of radiation take place in the sample. However, in order to obtain the accurate thermal properties it is necessary to consider the PA signal contributions produced at the cell walls. Such contributions were considered in our study. To demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed methodology, commercial stainless steel layers AISI 302 were analyzed. It is shown that using our approach the obtained thermal diffusivity and effusivity were in good agreement with those reported in the literature. Also, a detailed procedure for the calculation of the standard error in the thermal properties is discussed.

  16. SCAN-based hybrid and double-hybrid density functionals from models without fitted parameters.

    PubMed

    Hui, Kerwin; Chai, Jeng-Da

    2016-01-28

    By incorporating the nonempirical strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) semilocal density functional [J. Sun, A. Ruzsinszky, and J. P. Perdew, Phys. Rev. Lett. 115, 036402 (2015)] in the underlying expression of four existing hybrid and double-hybrid models, we propose one hybrid (SCAN0) and three double-hybrid (SCAN0-DH, SCAN-QIDH, and SCAN0-2) density functionals, which are free from any fitted parameters. The SCAN-based double-hybrid functionals consistently outperform their parent SCAN semilocal functional for self-interaction problems and noncovalent interactions. In particular, SCAN0-2, which includes about 79% of Hartree-Fock exchange and 50% of second-order Møller-Plesset correlation, is shown to be reliably accurate for a very diverse range of applications, such as thermochemistry, kinetics, noncovalent interactions, and self-interaction problems. PMID:26827209

  17. Molecular mechanisms of protein aggregation from global fitting of kinetic models.

    PubMed

    Meisl, Georg; Kirkegaard, Julius B; Arosio, Paolo; Michaels, Thomas C T; Vendruscolo, Michele; Dobson, Christopher M; Linse, Sara; Knowles, Tuomas P J

    2016-02-01

    The elucidation of the molecular mechanisms by which soluble proteins convert into their amyloid forms is a fundamental prerequisite for understanding and controlling disorders that are linked to protein aggregation, such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases. However, because of the complexity associated with aggregation reaction networks, the analysis of kinetic data of protein aggregation to obtain the underlying mechanisms represents a complex task. Here we describe a framework, using quantitative kinetic assays and global fitting, to determine and to verify a molecular mechanism for aggregation reactions that is compatible with experimental kinetic data. We implement this approach in a web-based software, AmyloFit. Our procedure starts from the results of kinetic experiments that measure the concentration of aggregate mass as a function of time. We illustrate the approach with results from the aggregation of the β-amyloid (Aβ) peptides measured using thioflavin T, but the method is suitable for data from any similar kinetic experiment measuring the accumulation of aggregate mass as a function of time; the input data are in the form of a tab-separated text file. We also outline general experimental strategies and practical considerations for obtaining kinetic data of sufficient quality to draw detailed mechanistic conclusions, and the procedure starts with instructions for extensive data quality control. For the core part of the analysis, we provide an online platform (http://www.amylofit.ch.cam.ac.uk) that enables robust global analysis of kinetic data without the need for extensive programming or detailed mathematical knowledge. The software automates repetitive tasks and guides users through the key steps of kinetic analysis: determination of constraints to be placed on the aggregation mechanism based on the concentration dependence of the aggregation reaction, choosing from several fundamental models describing assembly into linear aggregates and

  18. Fitting a groundwater contaminant transport model by L1 and L2 parameter estimators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiang, Yanyong; Thomson, N. R.; Sykes, J. F.

    This paper presents a study on the use of linear and nonlinear L1-norm parameter estimators to fit an analytical groundwater contaminant transport model with nonuniform contaminant source distributions. The model solution is obtained as a superposition of an analytical solution developed by Cleary (Cleary, R.W., Analytical Models for Groundwater Pollution and Hydrology, 208 Long Island Groundwater Pollution Study, draft report, vol. 3, Princeton University, NJ, 1978). Comparisons with the commonly used linear and nonlinear L2-norm estimators are conducted. The posterior statistical inference theory by Nyquist (Nyquist, H., Commun. Statist.-Theor. Meth., 1983, 12, 2511-24) and Gonin and Money (Gonin, G. & Money, A.H., Commun. Statist.-Theor. Meth., 1985, 14, 827-40) is used to provide the posterior covariance matrix and the probability distribution for the unknown parameter vector. As the conclusion, it is suggested that in view of the nature of groundwater contaminant transport modeling, L1-norm estimators may be preferred as robust alternatives to L2-norm estimators in solving parameter estimation problems.

  19. A simple algorithm for optimization and model fitting: AGA (asexual genetic algorithm)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cantó, J.; Curiel, S.; Martínez-Gómez, E.

    2009-07-01

    Context: Mathematical optimization can be used as a computational tool to obtain the optimal solution to a given problem in a systematic and efficient way. For example, in twice-differentiable functions and problems with no constraints, the optimization consists of finding the points where the gradient of the objective function is zero and using the Hessian matrix to classify the type of each point. Sometimes, however it is impossible to compute these derivatives and other type of techniques must be employed such as the steepest descent/ascent method and more sophisticated methods such as those based on the evolutionary algorithms. Aims: We present a simple algorithm based on the idea of genetic algorithms (GA) for optimization. We refer to this algorithm as AGA (asexual genetic algorithm) and apply it to two kinds of problems: the maximization of a function where classical methods fail and model fitting in astronomy. For the latter case, we minimize the chi-square function to estimate the parameters in two examples: the orbits of exoplanets by taking a set of radial velocity data, and the spectral energy distribution (SED) observed towards a YSO (Young Stellar Object). Methods: The algorithm AGA may also be called genetic, although it differs from standard genetic algorithms in two main aspects: a) the initial population is not encoded; and b) the new generations are constructed by asexual reproduction. Results: Applying our algorithm in optimizing some complicated functions, we find the global maxima within a few iterations. For model fitting to the orbits of exoplanets and the SED of a YSO, we estimate the parameters and their associated errors.

  20. The Kunming CalFit study: modeling dietary behavioral patterns using smartphone data.

    PubMed

    Seto, Edmund; Hua, Jenna; Wu, Lemuel; Bestick, Aaron; Shia, Victor; Eom, Sue; Han, Jay; Wang, May; Li, Yan

    2014-01-01

    Human behavioral interventions aimed at improving health can benefit from objective wearable sensor data and mathematical models. Smartphone-based sensing is particularly practical for monitoring behavioral patterns because smartphones are fairly common, are carried by individuals throughout their daily lives, offer a variety of sensing modalities, and can facilitate various forms of user feedback for intervention studies. We describe our findings from a smartphone-based study, in which an Android-based application we developed called CalFit was used to collect information related to young adults' dietary behaviors. In addition to monitoring dietary patterns, we were interested in understanding contextual factors related to when and where an individual eats, as well as how their dietary intake relates to physical activity (which creates energy demand) and psychosocial stress. 12 participants were asked to use CalFit to record videos of their meals over two 1-week periods, which were translated into nutrient intake by trained dietitians. During this same period, triaxial accelerometry was used to assess each subject's energy expenditure, and GPS was used to record time-location patterns. Ecological momentary assessment was also used to prompt subjects to respond to questions on their phone about their psychological state. The GPS data were processed through a web service we developed called Foodscoremap that is based on the Google Places API to characterize food environments that subjects were exposed to, which may explain and influence dietary patterns. Furthermore, we describe a modeling framework that incorporates all of these information to dynamically infer behavioral patterns that may be used for future intervention studies. PMID:25571578

  1. Purchasing a cycle helmet: are retailers providing adequate advice?

    PubMed Central

    Plumridge, E.; McCool, J.; Chetwynd, J.; Langley, J. D.

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to examine the selling of cycle helmets in retail stores with particular reference to the adequacy of advice offered about the fit and securing of helmets. METHODS: All 55 retail outlets selling cycle helmets in Christchurch, New Zealand were studied by participant observation. A research entered each store as a prospective customer and requested assistance to purchase a helmet. She took detailed field notes of the ensuing encounter and these were subsequently transcribed, coded, and analysed. RESULTS: Adequate advice for helmet purchase was given in less than half of the stores. In general the sales assistants in specialist cycle shops were better informed and gave more adequate advice than those in department stores. Those who have good advice also tended to be more good advice also tended to be more active in helping with fitting the helmet. Knowledge about safety standards was apparent in one third of sales assistants. Few stores displayed information for customers about the correct fit of cycle helmets. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that the advice and assistance being given to ensure that cycle helmets fit properly is often inadequate and thus the helmets may fail to fulfil their purpose in preventing injury. Consultation between retailers and policy makers is a necessary first step to improving this situation. PMID:9346053

  2. Item Parameter Recovery, Standard Error Estimates, and Fit Statistics of the Winsteps Program for the Family of Rasch Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Wen-Chung; Chen, Cheng-Te

    2005-01-01

    This study investigates item parameter recovery, standard error estimates, and fit statistics yielded by the WINSTEPS program under the Rasch model and the rating scale model through Monte Carlo simulations. The independent variables were item response model, test length, and sample size. WINSTEPS yielded practically unbiased estimates for the…

  3. On the Model-Based Bootstrap with Missing Data: Obtaining a "P"-Value for a Test of Exact Fit

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Savalei, Victoria; Yuan, Ke-Hai

    2009-01-01

    Evaluating the fit of a structural equation model via bootstrap requires a transformation of the data so that the null hypothesis holds exactly in the sample. For complete data, such a transformation was proposed by Beran and Srivastava (1985) for general covariance structure models and applied to structural equation modeling by Bollen and Stine…

  4. A Cautionary Note on Using G[squared](dif) to Assess Relative Model Fit in Categorical Data Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maydeu-Olivares, Albert; Cai, Li

    2006-01-01

    The likelihood ratio test statistic G[squared](dif) is widely used for comparing the fit of nested models in categorical data analysis. In large samples, this statistic is distributed as a chi-square with degrees of freedom equal to the difference in degrees of freedom between the tested models, but only if the least restrictive model is correctly…

  5. Ignoring imperfect detection in biological surveys is dangerous: a response to 'fitting and interpreting occupancy models'.

    PubMed

    Guillera-Arroita, Gurutzeta; Lahoz-Monfort, José J; MacKenzie, Darryl I; Wintle, Brendan A; McCarthy, Michael A

    2014-01-01

    In a recent paper, Welsh, Lindenmayer and Donnelly (WLD) question the usefulness of models that estimate species occupancy while accounting for detectability. WLD claim that these models are difficult to fit and argue that disregarding detectability can be better than trying to adjust for it. We think that this conclusion and subsequent recommendations are not well founded and may negatively impact the quality of statistical inference in ecology and related management decisions. Here we respond to WLD's claims, evaluating in detail their arguments, using simulations and/or theory to support our points. In particular, WLD argue that both disregarding and accounting for imperfect detection lead to the same estimator performance regardless of sample size when detectability is a function of abundance. We show that this, the key result of their paper, only holds for cases of extreme heterogeneity like the single scenario they considered. Our results illustrate the dangers of disregarding imperfect detection. When ignored, occupancy and detection are confounded: the same naïve occupancy estimates can be obtained for very different true levels of occupancy so the size of the bias is unknowable. Hierarchical occupancy models separate occupancy and detection, and imprecise estimates simply indicate that more data are required for robust inference about the system in question. As for any statistical method, when underlying assumptions of simple hierarchical models are violated, their reliability is reduced. Resorting in those instances where hierarchical occupancy models do no perform well to the naïve occupancy estimator does not provide a satisfactory solution. The aim should instead be to achieve better estimation, by minimizing the effect of these issues during design, data collection and analysis, ensuring that the right amount of data is collected and model assumptions are met, considering model extensions where appropriate. PMID:25075615

  6. Heliospheric Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections: Drag-based Model Fitting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Žic, T.; Vršnak, B.; Temmer, M.

    2015-06-01

    The so-called drag-based model (DBM) simulates analytically the propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in interplanetary space and allows the prediction of their arrival times and impact speeds at any point in the heliosphere (“target”). The DBM is based on the assumption that beyond a distance of about 20 solar radii from the Sun, the dominant force acting on CMEs is the “aerodynamic” drag force. In the standard form of DBM, the user provisionally chooses values for the model input parameters, by which the kinematics of the CME over the entire Sun-“target” distance range is defined. The choice of model input parameters is usually based on several previously undertaken statistical studies. In other words, the model is used by ad hoc implementation of statistics-based values of the input parameters, which are not necessarily appropriate for the CME under study. Furthermore, such a procedure lacks quantitative information on how well the simulation reproduces the coronagraphically observed kinematics of the CME, and thus does not provide an estimate of the reliability of the arrival prediction. In this paper we advance the DBM by adopting it in a form that employs the CME observations over a given distance range to evaluate the most suitable model input parameters for a given CME by means of least-squares fitting. Furthermore, the new version of the model automatically responds to any significant change of the conditions in the ambient medium (solar wind speed, density, CME-CME interactions, etc.) by changing the model input parameters according to changes in the CME kinematics. The advanced DBM is shaped in a form that can be readily employed in an operational system for real-time space-weather forecasting by promptly adjusting to a successively expanding observational data set, thus providing a successively improving prediction of the CME arrival.

  7. Insight into the functional versatility of RNA through model-making with applications to data fitting.

    PubMed

    Bevilacqua, Philip C; Cerrone-Szakal, Andrea L; Siegfried, Nathan A

    2007-02-01

    The RNA World hypothesis posits that life emerged from self-replicating RNA molecules. For any single biopolymer to be the basis for life, it must both store information and perform diverse functions. It is well known that RNA can store information. Advances in recent years have revealed that RNA can exhibit remarkable functional versatility as well. In an effort to judge the functional versatility of RNA and thereby the plausibility that RNA was at one point the basis for life, a statistical chemical approach is adopted. Essential biological functions are reduced to simple molecular models in a minimalist, biopolymer-independent fashion. The models dictate requisite states, populations of states, and physical and chemical changes occurring between the states. Next, equations are derived from the models, which lead to complex phenomenological constants such as observed and functional constants that are defined in terms of familiar elementary chemical descriptors: intrinsic rate constants, microscopic ligand equilibrium constants, secondary structure stability, and ligand concentration. Using these equations, simulations of functional behavior are performed. These functional models provide practical frameworks for fitting and organizing real data on functional RNAs such as ribozymes and riboswitches. At the same time, the models allow the suitability of RNA as a basis for life to be judged. We conclude that RNA, while inferior to extant proteins in most, but not all, functional respects, may be more versatile than proteins, performing a wider range of elementary biological functions at a tolerable level. Inspection of the functional models and various RNA structures uncovers several surprising ways in which the nucleobases can conspire to afford chemical catalysis and evolvability. These models support the plausibility that RNA, or a closely related informational biopolymer, could serve as the basis for a fairly simple form of life. PMID:17391549

  8. 34 CFR 85.900 - Adequate evidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ...) Definitions § 85.900 Adequate evidence. Adequate evidence means information sufficient to support the reasonable belief that a particular act or omission has occurred. Authority: E.O. 12549 (3 CFR, 1986 Comp., p. 189); E.O 12689 (3 CFR, 1989 Comp., p. 235); 20 U.S.C. 1082, 1094, 1221e-3 and 3474; and Sec....

  9. 29 CFR 452.110 - Adequate safeguards.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Adequate safeguards. 452.110 Section 452.110 Labor... DISCLOSURE ACT OF 1959 Election Procedures; Rights of Members § 452.110 Adequate safeguards. (a) In addition to the election safeguards discussed in this part, the Act contains a general mandate in section...

  10. 29 CFR 452.110 - Adequate safeguards.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Adequate safeguards. 452.110 Section 452.110 Labor... DISCLOSURE ACT OF 1959 Election Procedures; Rights of Members § 452.110 Adequate safeguards. (a) In addition to the election safeguards discussed in this part, the Act contains a general mandate in section...

  11. Modeling and fitting protein-protein complexes to predict change of binding energy

    PubMed Central

    Dourado, Daniel F.A.R.; Flores, Samuel Coulbourn

    2016-01-01

    It is possible to accurately and economically predict change in protein-protein interaction energy upon mutation (ΔΔG), when a high-resolution structure of the complex is available. This is of growing usefulness for design of high-affinity or otherwise modified binding proteins for therapeutic, diagnostic, industrial, and basic science applications. Recently the field has begun to pursue ΔΔG prediction for homology modeled complexes, but so far this has worked mostly for cases of high sequence identity. If the interacting proteins have been crystallized in free (uncomplexed) form, in a majority of cases it is possible to find a structurally similar complex which can be used as the basis for template-based modeling. We describe how to use MMB to create such models, and then use them to predict ΔΔG, using a dataset consisting of free target structures, co-crystallized template complexes with sequence identify with respect to the targets as low as 44%, and experimental ΔΔG measurements. We obtain similar results by fitting to a low-resolution Cryo-EM density map. Results suggest that other structural constraints may lead to a similar outcome, making the method even more broadly applicable. PMID:27173910

  12. Assessing Performance of Bayesian State-Space Models Fit to Argos Satellite Telemetry Locations Processed with Kalman Filtering

    PubMed Central

    Silva, Mónica A.; Jonsen, Ian; Russell, Deborah J. F.; Prieto, Rui; Thompson, Dave; Baumgartner, Mark F.

    2014-01-01

    Argos recently implemented a new algorithm to calculate locations of satellite-tracked animals that uses a Kalman filter (KF). The KF algorithm is reported to increase the number and accuracy of estimated positions over the traditional Least Squares (LS) algorithm, with potential advantages to the application of state-space methods to model animal movement data. We tested the performance of two Bayesian state-space models (SSMs) fitted to satellite tracking data processed with KF algorithm. Tracks from 7 harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) tagged with ARGOS satellite transmitters equipped with Fastloc GPS loggers were used to calculate the error of locations estimated from SSMs fitted to KF and LS data, by comparing those to “true” GPS locations. Data on 6 fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) were used to investigate consistency in movement parameters, location and behavioural states estimated by switching state-space models (SSSM) fitted to data derived from KF and LS methods. The model fit to KF locations improved the accuracy of seal trips by 27% over the LS model. 82% of locations predicted from the KF model and 73% of locations from the LS model were <5 km from the corresponding interpolated GPS position. Uncertainty in KF model estimates (5.6±5.6 km) was nearly half that of LS estimates (11.6±8.4 km). Accuracy of KF and LS modelled locations was sensitive to precision but not to observation frequency or temporal resolution of raw Argos data. On average, 88% of whale locations estimated by KF models fell within the 95% probability ellipse of paired locations from LS models. Precision of KF locations for whales was generally higher. Whales’ behavioural mode inferred by KF models matched the classification from LS models in 94% of the cases. State-space models fit to KF data can improve spatial accuracy of location estimates over LS models and produce equally reliable behavioural estimates. PMID:24651252

  13. Anthropometric influence on physical fitness among preschool children: gender-specific linear and curvilinear regression models.

    PubMed

    Kondric, Miran; Trajkovski, Biljana; Strbad, Maja; Foretić, Nikola; Zenić, Natasa

    2013-12-01

    There is evident lack of studies which investigated morphological influence on physical fitness (PF) among preschool children. The aim of this study was to (1) calculate and interpret linear and nonlinear relationships between simple anthropometric predictors and PF criteria among preschoolers of both genders, and (2) to find critical values of the anthropometric predictors which should be recognized as the breakpoint of the negative influence on the PF. The sample of subjects consisted of 413 preschoolers aged 4 to 6 (mean age, 5.08 years; 176 girls and 237 boys), from Rijeka, Croatia. The anthropometric variables included body height (BH), body weight (BW), sum of triceps and subscapular skinfold (SUMSF), and calculated BMI (BMI = BW (kg)/BH (m)2). The PF was screened throughout testing of flexibility, repetitive strength, explosive strength, and agility. Linear and nonlinear (general quadratic model y = a + bx + cx2) regressions were calculated and interpreted simultaneously. BH and BW are far better predictors of the physical fitness status than BMI and SUMSF. In all calculated regressions excluding flexibility criterion, linear and nonlinear prediction of the PF throughout BH and BW reached statistical significance, indicating influence of the advancement in maturity status on PF variables Differences between linear and nonlinear regressions are smaller in males than in females. There are some indices that the age of 4 to 6 years is a critical period in the prevention of obesity, mostly because the extensively studied and proven negative influence of overweight and adiposity on PF tests is not yet evident. In some cases we have found evident regression breakpoints (approximately 25 kg in boys), which should be interpreted as critical values of the anthropometric measures for the studied sample of subjects. PMID:24611341

  14. Evapotranspiration measurement and modeling without fitting parameters in high-altitude grasslands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferraris, Stefano; Previati, Maurizio; Canone, Davide; Dematteis, Niccolò; Boetti, Marco; Balocco, Jacopo; Bechis, Stefano

    2016-04-01

    Mountain grasslands are important, also because one sixth of the world population lives inside watershed dominated by snowmelt. Also, grasslands provide food to both domestic and selvatic animals. The global warming will probably accelerate the hydrological cycle and increase the drought risk. The combination of measurements, modeling and remote sensing can furnish knowledge in such faraway areas (e.g.: Brocca et al., 2013). A better knowledge of water balance can also allow to optimize the irrigation (e.g.: Canone et al., 2015). This work is meant to build a model of water balance in mountain grasslands, ranging between 1500 and 2300 meters asl. The main input is the Digital Terrain Model, which is more reliable in grasslands than both in the woods and in the built environment. It drives the spatial variability of shortwave solar radiation. The other atmospheric forcings are more problematic to estimate, namely air temperature, wind and longwave radiation. Ad hoc routines have been written, in order to interpolate in space the meteorological hourly time variability. The soil hydraulic properties are less variable than in the plains, but the soil depth estimation is still an open issue. The soil vertical variability has been modeled taking into account the main processes: soil evaporation, root uptake, and fractured bedrock percolation. The time variability latent heat flux and soil moisture results have been compared with the data measured in an eddy covariance station. The results are very good, given the fact that the model has no fitting parameters. The space variability results have been compared with the results of a model based on Landsat 7 and 8 data, applied over an area of about 200 square kilometers. The spatial correlation is quite in agreement between the two models. Brocca et al. (2013). "Soil moisture estimation in alpine catchments through modelling and satellite observations". Vadose Zone Journal, 12(3), 10 pp. Canone et al. (2015). "Field

  15. On Eigen's Quasispecies Model, Two-Valued Fitness Landscapes, and Isometry Groups Acting on Finite Metric Spaces.

    PubMed

    Semenov, Yuri S; Novozhilov, Artem S

    2016-05-01

    A two-valued fitness landscape is introduced for the classical Eigen's quasispecies model. This fitness landscape can be considered as a direct generalization of the so-called single- or sharply peaked landscape. A general, non-permutation invariant quasispecies model is studied, and therefore the dimension of the problem is [Formula: see text], where N is the sequence length. It is shown that if the fitness function is equal to [Formula: see text] on a G-orbit A and is equal to w elsewhere, then the mean population fitness can be found as the largest root of an algebraic equation of degree at most [Formula: see text]. Here G is an arbitrary isometry group acting on the metric space of sequences of zeroes and ones of the length N with the Hamming distance. An explicit form of this exact algebraic equation is given in terms of the spherical growth function of the G-orbit A. Motivated by the analysis of the two-valued fitness landscapes, an abstract generalization of Eigen's model is introduced such that the sequences are identified with the points of a finite metric space X together with a group of isometries acting transitively on X. In particular, a simplicial analog of the original quasispecies model is discussed, which can be considered as a mathematical model of the switching of the antigenic variants for some bacteria. PMID:27230609

  16. Relativistic precessing jets in quasars and radio galaxies - Models to fit high resolution data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gower, A. C.; Gregory, P. C.; Unruh, W. G.; Hutchings, J. B.

    1982-01-01

    The formulation of generalized models tracing the geometry and intensity of the synchrotron emission from precessing, twin, relativistic jets as projected on the plane of the sky is presented. It is shown that neither the shape of the image nor its relative intensities are altered by including the effects of a cosmological redshift and a relative velocity between the source and observer. The models are fitted to the available data for several quasars and radio galaxies and demonstrate the plausibility of the phenomenon. Probable selection effects are considered and diagnostics given for recognizing objects showing this behavior. In the radio galaxies considered, velocities up to about 0.2c and precession periods of 1,000,000 yr are deduced. In the QSOs investigated, velocities of 0.7c and greater are found and periods of order 10,000 yr. In some cases precession cone angles increase with time. Consequences in terms of lifetimes of QSO behavior and binary supermassive objects are discussed.

  17. Model fitting using RANSAC for surgical tool localization in 3-D ultrasound images.

    PubMed

    Uhercík, Marián; Kybic, Jan; Liebgott, Hervé; Cachard, Christian

    2010-08-01

    Ultrasound guidance is used for many surgical interventions such as biopsy and electrode insertion. We present a method to localize a thin surgical tool such as a biopsy needle or a microelectrode in a 3-D ultrasound image. The proposed method starts with thresholding and model fitting using random sample consensus for robust localization of the axis. Subsequent local optimization refines its position. Two different tool image models are presented: one is simple and fast and the second uses learned a priori information about the tool's voxel intensities and the background. Finally, the tip of the tool is localized by finding an intensity drop along the axis. The simulation study shows that our algorithm can localize the tool at nearly real-time speed, even using a MATLAB implementation, with accuracy better than 1 mm. In an experimental comparison with several alternative localization methods, our method appears to be the fastest and the most robust one. We also show the results on real 3-D ultrasound data from a PVA cryogel phantom, turkey breast, and breast biopsy. PMID:20483680

  18. Model Order Selection for Short Data: An Exponential Fitting Test (EFT)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quinlan, Angela; Barbot, Jean-Pierre; Larzabal, Pascal; Haardt, Martin

    2006-12-01

    High-resolution methods for estimating signal processing parameters such as bearing angles in array processing or frequencies in spectral analysis may be hampered by the model order if poorly selected. As classical model order selection methods fail when the number of snapshots available is small, this paper proposes a method for noncoherent sources, which continues to work under such conditions, while maintaining low computational complexity. For white Gaussian noise and short data we show that the profile of the ordered noise eigenvalues is seen to approximately fit an exponential law. This fact is used to provide a recursive algorithm which detects a mismatch between the observed eigenvalue profile and the theoretical noise-only eigenvalue profile, as such a mismatch indicates the presence of a source. Moreover this proposed method allows the probability of false alarm to be controlled and predefined, which is a crucial point for systems such as RADARs. Results of simulations are provided in order to show the capabilities of the algorithm.

  19. Moment Fitting for Parameter Inference in Repeatedly and Partially Observed Stochastic Biological Models

    PubMed Central

    Kügler, Philipp

    2012-01-01

    The inference of reaction rate parameters in biochemical network models from time series concentration data is a central task in computational systems biology. Under the assumption of well mixed conditions the network dynamics are typically described by the chemical master equation, the Fokker Planck equation, the linear noise approximation or the macroscopic rate equation. The inverse problem of estimating the parameters of the underlying network model can be approached in deterministic and stochastic ways, and available methods often compare individual or mean concentration traces obtained from experiments with theoretical model predictions when maximizing likelihoods, minimizing regularized least squares functionals, approximating posterior distributions or sequentially processing the data. In this article we assume that the biological reaction network can be observed at least partially and repeatedly over time such that sample moments of species molecule numbers for various time points can be calculated from the data. Based on the chemical master equation we furthermore derive closed systems of parameter dependent nonlinear ordinary differential equations that predict the time evolution of the statistical moments. For inferring the reaction rate parameters we suggest to not only compare the sample mean with the theoretical mean prediction but also to take the residual of higher order moments explicitly into account. Cost functions that involve residuals of higher order moments may form landscapes in the parameter space that have more pronounced curvatures at the minimizer and hence may weaken or even overcome parameter sloppiness and uncertainty. As a consequence both deterministic and stochastic parameter inference algorithms may be improved with respect to accuracy and efficiency. We demonstrate the potential of moment fitting for parameter inference by means of illustrative stochastic biological models from the literature and address topics for future

  20. A differential equation for the asymptotic fitness distribution in the Bak-Sneppen model with five species.

    PubMed

    Schlemm, Eckhard

    2015-09-01

    The Bak-Sneppen model is an abstract representation of a biological system that evolves according to the Darwinian principles of random mutation and selection. The species in the system are characterized by a numerical fitness value between zero and one. We show that in the case of five species the steady-state fitness distribution can be obtained as a solution to a linear differential equation of order five with hypergeometric coefficients. Similar representations for the asymptotic fitness distribution in larger systems may help pave the way towards a resolution of the question of whether or not, in the limit of infinitely many species, the fitness is asymptotically uniformly distributed on the interval [fc, 1] with fc ≳ 2/3. PMID:26144945

  1. Effects of Data Nonnormality and Other Factors on Fit Indices and Parameter Estimates for True and Misspecified SEM Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fan, Xitao; And Others

    A Monte Carlo study was conducted to assess the effects of some potential confounding factors on structural equation modeling (SEM) fit indices and parameter estimates for both true and misspecified models. The factors investigated were data nonnormality, SEM estimation method, and sample size. Based on the fully crossed and balanced 3x3x4x2…

  2. Pulmonary lobe segmentation based on ridge surface sampling and shape model fitting

    SciTech Connect

    Ross, James C.; Kindlmann, Gordon L.; Okajima, Yuka; Hatabu, Hiroto; Díaz, Alejandro A.; Silverman, Edwin K.; Washko, George R.; Dy, Jennifer; Estépar, Raúl San José

    2013-12-15

    Purpose: Performing lobe-based quantitative analysis of the lung in computed tomography (CT) scans can assist in efforts to better characterize complex diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). While airways and vessels can help to indicate the location of lobe boundaries, segmentations of these structures are not always available, so methods to define the lobes in the absence of these structures are desirable. Methods: The authors present a fully automatic lung lobe segmentation algorithm that is effective in volumetric inspiratory and expiratory computed tomography (CT) datasets. The authors rely on ridge surface image features indicating fissure locations and a novel approach to modeling shape variation in the surfaces defining the lobe boundaries. The authors employ a particle system that efficiently samples ridge surfaces in the image domain and provides a set of candidate fissure locations based on the Hessian matrix. Following this, lobe boundary shape models generated from principal component analysis (PCA) are fit to the particles data to discriminate between fissure and nonfissure candidates. The resulting set of particle points are used to fit thin plate spline (TPS) interpolating surfaces to form the final boundaries between the lung lobes. Results: The authors tested algorithm performance on 50 inspiratory and 50 expiratory CT scans taken from the COPDGene study. Results indicate that the authors' algorithm performs comparably to pulmonologist-generated lung lobe segmentations and can produce good results in cases with accessory fissures, incomplete fissures, advanced emphysema, and low dose acquisition protocols. Dice scores indicate that only 29 out of 500 (5.85%) lobes showed Dice scores lower than 0.9. Two different approaches for evaluating lobe boundary surface discrepancies were applied and indicate that algorithm boundary identification is most accurate in the vicinity of fissures detectable on CT. Conclusions: The proposed

  3. Tanning Shade Gradations of Models in Mainstream Fitness and Muscle Enthusiast Magazines: Implications for Skin Cancer Prevention in Men.

    PubMed

    Basch, Corey H; Hillyer, Grace Clarke; Ethan, Danna; Berdnik, Alyssa; Basch, Charles E

    2015-07-01

    Tanned skin has been associated with perceptions of fitness and social desirability. Portrayal of models in magazines may reflect and perpetuate these perceptions. Limited research has investigated tanning shade gradations of models in men's versus women's fitness and muscle enthusiast magazines. Such findings are relevant in light of increased incidence and prevalence of melanoma in the United States. This study evaluated and compared tanning shade gradations of adult Caucasian male and female model images in mainstream fitness and muscle enthusiast magazines. Sixty-nine U.S. magazine issues (spring and summer, 2013) were utilized. Two independent reviewers rated tanning shade gradations of adult Caucasian male and female model images on magazines' covers, advertisements, and feature articles. Shade gradations were assessed using stock photographs of Caucasian models with varying levels of tanned skin on an 8-shade scale. A total of 4,683 images were evaluated. Darkest tanning shades were found among males in muscle enthusiast magazines and lightest among females in women's mainstream fitness magazines. By gender, male model images were 54% more likely to portray a darker tanning shade. In this study, images in men's (vs. women's) fitness and muscle enthusiast magazines portrayed Caucasian models with darker skin shades. Despite these magazines' fitness-related messages, pro-tanning images may promote attitudes and behaviors associated with higher skin cancer risk. To date, this is the first study to explore tanning shades in men's magazines of these genres. Further research is necessary to identify effects of exposure to these images among male readers. PMID:25038234

  4. Americans Getting Adequate Water Daily, CDC Finds

    MedlinePlus

    ... medlineplus/news/fullstory_158510.html Americans Getting Adequate Water Daily, CDC Finds Men take in an average ... new government report finds most are getting enough water each day. The data, from the U.S. National ...

  5. Americans Getting Adequate Water Daily, CDC Finds

    MedlinePlus

    ... gov/news/fullstory_158510.html Americans Getting Adequate Water Daily, CDC Finds Men take in an average ... new government report finds most are getting enough water each day. The data, from the U.S. National ...

  6. Hybrid Thermal/Non-Thermal Model Fits to the X-Ray Spectra of GRS 1915+105

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maccarone, T. J.; Coppi, P. S.; Taam, R.

    2000-10-01

    We present the results of spectral fits to RXTE observations of GRS 1915+105 using the EQPAIR model of Coppi et al. (1999) to assess the effects of thermal and non-thermal Comptonization, as well as reflection. We note that such self-consistent models result in larger inner disk radii and lower disk temperatures than the previous fits using multicolor blackbody and power law models, thus solving the problem of inner disk radii at < ~ 1 Rsch. We also note that the major difference between the ``high" and ``low" states is the presence of a strong nonthermal spectral component in the low state and that the Compton y parameter remains fairly constant within the high state despite large variations in the optical depth and temperature. We discuss other observed correlations between the different fit parameters and consider possible implications for disk-jet interactions.

  7. Modeling, Simulation and Data Fitting of the Charge Injected Diodes (CID) for SLHC Tracking Applications

    SciTech Connect

    Li, Z.; Eremin, V.; Harkonen, J.; Luukka, P.; Tuominen, E.; Tuovinen, E.; Verbitskaya, E.

    2009-10-27

    Modeling and simulations have been performed for the charge injected diodes (CID) for the application in SLHC. MIP-induced current and charges have been calculated for segmented detectors with various radiation fluences, up to the highest SLHC fluence of 1 x 10{sup 16} n{sub eq}/cm{sup 2}. Although the main advantage of CID detectors is their virtual full depletion at any radiation fluence at a modest bias voltage (<600 V), the simulation of CID and fitting to the existing data have shown that the CID operation mode also reduces the free carrier trapping, resulting in a much higher charge collection at the SLHC fluence than that in a standard Si detector. The reduction in free carrier trapping by almost one order of magnitude is due to the fact that the CID mode also pre-fills the traps, making them neutral and not active in trapping. It has been found that, electron traps can be pre-filled by injection of electrons from the n{sup +} contact, and hole traps can be pre-filled by injection of holes from the p{sup +} contact. The CID mode of detector operation can be achieved by a modestly low temperature of around -40 C, achievable by the proposed CO{sub 2} cooling for detector upgrades in SLHC. High charge collection comparable to the 3D electrode Si detectors makes the CID Si detector a valuable alternative for SLHC detectors for its much easier fabrication process.

  8. Regulation of Neutrophil Degranulation and Cytokine Secretion: A Novel Model Approach Based on Linear Fitting

    PubMed Central

    Naegelen, Isabelle; Beaume, Nicolas; Plançon, Sébastien; Schenten, Véronique; Tschirhart, Eric J.; Bréchard, Sabrina

    2015-01-01

    Neutrophils participate in the maintenance of host integrity by releasing various cytotoxic proteins during degranulation. Due to recent advances, a major role has been attributed to neutrophil-derived cytokine secretion in the initiation, exacerbation, and resolution of inflammatory responses. Because the release of neutrophil-derived products orchestrates the action of other immune cells at the infection site and, thus, can contribute to the development of chronic inflammatory diseases, we aimed to investigate in more detail the spatiotemporal regulation of neutrophil-mediated release mechanisms of proinflammatory mediators. Purified human neutrophils were stimulated for different time points with lipopolysaccharide. Cells and supernatants were analyzed by flow cytometry techniques and used to establish secretion profiles of granules and cytokines. To analyze the link between cytokine release and degranulation time series, we propose an original strategy based on linear fitting, which may be used as a guideline, to (i) define the relationship of granule proteins and cytokines secreted to the inflammatory site and (ii) investigate the spatial regulation of neutrophil cytokine release. The model approach presented here aims to predict the correlation between neutrophil-derived cytokine secretion and degranulation and may easily be extrapolated to investigate the relationship between other types of time series of functional processes. PMID:26579547

  9. An empirical study on the relationship between teacher's judgments and fit statistics of the partial credit model.

    PubMed

    Baek, Sun-Geun; Kim, Hye-Sook

    2009-01-01

    The main purpose of the study was to investigate empirically the relationship between classroom teacher's judgment and the item and person fit-statistics of the partial credit model. In this study, classroom teacher's judgments were made intuitively checking each item's consistency with the general response pattern and each student's need for additional treatment or advice. The item and person fit statistics of the partial credit model were estimated using the WINSTEPS program (Linacre, 2003). The subjects of this study were 321 sixth grade students in 9 classrooms within 3 elementary schools in Seoul, Korea. For this research, a performance assessment test for 6th grade mathematics was developed. It consisted of 20 polytomous response items and its total scores ranged between 0 and 50. In addition, the 9 classroom teachers made their judgments for each item of the test and for each student in their own classroom. They judged intuitively using 4 categories; (1) well fit, (2) fit, (3) misfit, and (4) badly misfit for each item as well as each student. Their judgments were scored from 1 to 4 for each item as well as each student. There are two significant findings in this study. First, there is a statistically significant relationship between the classroom teacher's judgment and item fit statistic for each item (The median correlation coefficient between the teacher's judgment and the item outfit ZSTD is 0.61). Second, there is a statistically significant relationship between the teacher's judgment and the person fit statistic for each student (The median correlation coefficient between the teacher's judgment and the person outfit ZSTD is 0.52). In conclusion, the item and person fit statistics of the partial credit model correspond with the teacher's judgments for each test item and each student. PMID:19299887

  10. Are all models created equal? A content analysis of women in advertisements of fitness versus fashion magazines.

    PubMed

    Wasylkiw, L; Emms, A A; Meuse, R; Poirier, K F

    2009-03-01

    The current study is a content analysis of women appearing in advertisements in two types of magazines: fitness/health versus fashion/beauty chosen because of their large and predominantly female readerships. Women appearing in advertisements of the June 2007 issue of five fitness/health magazines were compared to women appearing in advertisements of the June 2007 issue of five beauty/fashion magazines. Female models appearing in advertisements of both types of magazines were primarily young, thin Caucasians; however, images of models were more likely to emphasize appearance over performance when they appeared in fashion magazines. This difference in emphasis has implications for future research. PMID:19237328

  11. Do We Need Multiple Models of Auditory Verbal Hallucinations? Examining the Phenomenological Fit of Cognitive and Neurological Models

    PubMed Central

    Jones, Simon R.

    2010-01-01

    The causes of auditory verbal hallucinations (AVHs) are still unclear. The evidence for 2 prominent cognitive models of AVHs, one based on inner speech, the other on intrusions from memory, is briefly reviewed. The fit of these models, as well as neurological models, to the phenomenology of AVHs is then critically examined. It is argued that only a minority of AVHs, such as those with content clearly relating to verbalizations experienced surrounding previous trauma, are consistent with cognitive AVHs-as-memories models. Similarly, it is argued that current neurological models are only phenomenologically consistent with a limited subset of AVHs. In contrast, the phenomenology of the majority of AVHs, which involve voices attempting to regulate the ongoing actions of the voice hearer, are argued to be more consistent with inner speech–based models. It is concluded that subcategorizations of AVHs may be necessary, with each underpinned by different neurocognitive mechanisms. The need to study what is termed the dynamic developmental progression of AVHs is also highlighted. Future empirical research is suggested in this area. PMID:18820262

  12. The fitting of general force-of-infection models to wildlife disease prevalence data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Heisey, D.M.; Joly, D.O.; Messier, F.

    2006-01-01

    Researchers and wildlife managers increasingly find themselves in situations where they must deal with infectious wildlife diseases such as chronic wasting disease, brucellosis, tuberculosis, and West Nile virus. Managers are often charged with designing and implementing control strategies, and researchers often seek to determine factors that influence and control the disease process. All of these activities require the ability to measure some indication of a disease's foothold in a population and evaluate factors affecting that foothold. The most common type of data available to managers and researchers is apparent prevalence data. Apparent disease prevalence, the proportion of animals in a sample that are positive for the disease, might seem like a natural measure of disease's foothold, but several properties, in particular, its dependency on age structure and the biasing effects of disease-associated mortality, make it less than ideal. In quantitative epidemiology, the a??force of infection,a?? or infection hazard, is generally the preferred parameter for measuring a disease's foothold, and it can be viewed as the most appropriate way to a??adjusta?? apparent prevalence for age structure. The typical ecology curriculum includes little exposure to quantitative epidemiological concepts such as cumulative incidence, apparent prevalence, and the force of infection. The goal of this paper is to present these basic epidemiological concepts and resulting models in an ecological context and to illustrate how they can be applied to understand and address basic epidemiological questions. We demonstrate a practical approach to solving the heretofore intractable problem of fitting general force-of-infection models to wildlife prevalence data using a generalized regression approach. We apply the procedures to Mycobacterium bovis (bovine tuberculosis) prevalence in bison (Bison bison) in Wood Buffalo National Park, Canada, and demonstrate strong age dependency in the force of

  13. The fitting of general force-of-infection models to wildlife disease prevalence data.

    PubMed

    Heisey, Dennis M; Joly, Damien O; Messier, François

    2006-09-01

    Researchers and wildlife managers increasingly find themselves in situations where they must deal with infectious wildlife diseases such as chronic wasting disease, brucellosis, tuberculosis, and West Nile virus. Managers are often charged with designing and implementing control strategies, and researchers often seek to determine factors that influence and control the disease process. All of these activities require the ability to measure some indication of a disease's foothold in a population and evaluate factors affecting that foothold. The most common type of data available to managers and researchers is apparent prevalence data. Apparent disease prevalence, the proportion of animals in a sample that are positive for the disease, might seem like a natural measure of disease's foothold, but several properties, in particular, its dependency on age structure and the biasing effects of disease-associated mortality, make it less than ideal. In quantitative epidemiology, the "force of infection," or infection hazard, is generally the preferred parameter for measuring a disease's foothold, and it can be viewed as the most appropriate way to "adjust" apparent prevalence for age structure. The typical ecology curriculum includes little exposure to quantitative epidemiological concepts such as cumulative incidence, apparent prevalence, and the force of infection. The goal of this paper is to present these basic epidemiological concepts and resulting models in an ecological context and to illustrate how they can be applied to understand and address basic epidemiological questions. We demonstrate a practical approach to solving the heretofore intractable problem of fitting general force-of-infection models to wildlife prevalence data using a generalized regression approach. We apply the procedures to Mycobacterium bovis (bovine tuberculosis) prevalence in bison (Bison bison) in Wood Buffalo National Park, Canada, and demonstrate strong age dependency in the force of

  14. Development of a Stellar Model-Fitting Pipeline for Asteroseismic Data from the TESS Mission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Metcalfe, Travis

    The launch of NASA's Kepler space telescope in 2009 revolutionized the quality and quantity of observational data available for asteroseismic analysis. Prior to the Kepler mission, solar-like oscillations were extremely difficult to observe, and data only existed for a handful of the brightest stars in the sky. With the necessity of studying one star at a time, the traditional approach to extracting the physical properties of the star from the observations was an uncomfortably subjective process. A variety of experts could use similar tools but come up with significantly different answers. Not only did this subjectivity have the potential to undermine the credibility of the technique, it also hindered the compilation of a uniform sample that could be used to draw broader physical conclusions from the ensemble of results. During a previous award from NASA, we addressed these issues by developing an automated and objective stellar model-fitting pipeline for Kepler data, and making it available through the Asteroseismic Modeling Portal (AMP). This community modeling tool has allowed us to derive reliable asteroseismic radii, masses and ages for large samples of stars (Metcalfe et al. 2014), but the most recent observations are so precise that we are now limited by systematic uncertainties associated with our stellar models. With a huge archive of Kepler data available for model validation, and the next planet-hunting satellite already approved for an expected launch in 2017, now is the time to incorporate what we have learned into the next generation of AMP. We propose to improve the reliability of our estimates of stellar properties over the next 4 years by collaborating with two open-source development projects that will augment and ultimately replace the stellar evolution and pulsation models that we now use in AMP. Our current treatment of the oscillations does not include the effects of radiative or convective heat-exchange, nor does it account for the influence

  15. On the inherent data fitting problems encountered in modeling retention behavior of analytes with dual retention mechanism.

    PubMed

    Tyteca, Eva; Desmet, Gert

    2015-07-17

    Some valuable insights have been obtained in the inherent fitting problems when trying to predict the retention time of complex, multi-modal retention modes such as encountered in HILIC and SFC. In this study, we used mathematical models with known input parameters to generate different sets of numerical test curves representative for systems exhibiting a complex, non-LSS dual retention behavior. Subsequently, we tried to fit these data sets using some popular (non-linear) literature models. Even in cases where a physical fitting model exists (e.g., the mixed model in case of pure additive adsorptive and partitioning retention), the fitting quality can only be expected to be relatively good (prediction errors expressed in terms of a normalized resolution error ɛRs) when carefully selecting the scouting runs and the appropriate starting values for the fitting algorithm. The latter can best be done using a comprehensive grid search scanning a wide range of different starting values. This becomes even more important when no good physical model is available and one has to use a non-physical fitting model, such as the empirical Neue-model. The use of higher-order models is found to be quasi indispensable to keep the prediction errors on the order of some ΔRs=0.05. Also, the choice of the scouting runs becomes even more important using these higher-order models. For highly retained compounds we recommend using scouting runs with long tG/t0-values or to include a run with a higher fraction of eluting solvent at the start of the gradient. When trying to predict gradient retention, errors with which the isocratic retention behavior is fitted are much less important for high retention factors k than errors made in the range of k near the one at the point of elution. The results obtained with a so-called segmented Neue-model (containing 7 parameters) were less good and thus practically not interesting (because of the high number of initial runs). PMID:26044381

  16. Practical model fitting approaches to the direct extraction of NMR parameters simultaneously from all dimensions of multidimensional NMR spectra.

    PubMed

    Chylla, R A; Volkman, B F; Markley, J L

    1998-08-01

    A maximum likelihood (ML)-based approach has been established for the direct extraction of NMR parameters (e.g., frequency, amplitude, phase, and decay rate) simultaneously from all dimensions of a D-dimensional NMR spectrum. The approach, referred to here as HTFD-ML (hybrid time frequency domain maximum likelihood), constructs a time-domain model composed of a sum of exponentially-decaying sinusoidal signals. The apodized Fourier transform of this time-domain signal is a model spectrum that represents the 'best-fit' to the equivalent frequency-domain data spectrum. The desired amplitude and frequency parameters can be extracted directly from the signal model constructed by the HTFD-ML algorithm. The HTFD-ML approach presented here, as embodied in the software package CHIFIT, is designed to meet the challenges posed by model fitting of D-dimensional NMR data sets, where each consists of many data points (10(8) is not uncommon) encoding information about numerous signals (up to 10(5) for a protein of moderate size) that exhibit spectral overlap. The suitability of the approach is demonstrated by its application to the concerted analysis of a series of ten 2D 1H-15N HSQC experiments measuring 15N T1 relaxation. In addition to demonstrating the practicality of performing maximum likelihood analysis on large, multidimensional NMR spectra, the results demonstrate that this parametric model-fitting approach provides more accurate amplitude and frequency estimates than those obtained from conventional peak-based analysis of the FT spectrum. The improved performance of the model fitting approach derives from its ability to take into account the simultaneous contributions of all signals in a crowded spectral region (deconvolution) as well as to incorporate prior knowledge in constructing models to fit the data. PMID:9751999

  17. Traceable Calibration of a Radiation Thermometer in the Range 100 °C to 300 °C by Model Fitting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olsen, Åge Andreas Falnes; Bergerud, Reidun Anita

    2015-08-01

    The Norwegian Metrology Service (JV) offers calibration of blackbodies, thermal imagers, and radiation thermometers to the national clients. The temperature measurements are traceable to the ITS-90 with a set of reference blackbodies covering the range from 10 °C to 1700 °C. However, between 100 °C and 300 °C we do not have a direct measurement of the cavity temperature from a traceable sensor, and rely instead on a pyrometer to provide the reference temperature. The pyrometer is regularly calibrated externally at a handful of predefined temperatures. In this work we present a calibration scheme for the pyrometer which allows calibration at the JV premises: the pyrometer is set to record the measured radiation level at predefined temperatures below 100 °C and just above 300 °C. The calibration data are used to fit a Sakuma-Hattori model, and subsequent readings of the radiation level can be input to the model to extract the corresponding temperature. We present uncertainty budgets for the calibration data, which is subsequently used to estimate a combined uncertainty at arbitrary measured temperatures between 100 °C and 300 °C. Finally, temperatures obtained with the described scheme are compared with recent calibration values obtained externally, and we show that this is a reasonable way to achieve traceable calibration of the pyrometer with adequate precision and low uncertainty. The model fitting has the added benefit of a continuous calibration curve throughout the relevant temperature range rather than at a handful of arbitrary points.

  18. Asbestos/NESHAP adequately wet guidance

    SciTech Connect

    Shafer, R.; Throwe, S.; Salgado, O.; Garlow, C.; Hoerath, E.

    1990-12-01

    The Asbestos NESHAP requires facility owners and/or operators involved in demolition and renovation activities to control emissions of particulate asbestos to the outside air because no safe concentration of airborne asbestos has ever been established. The primary method used to control asbestos emissions is to adequately wet the Asbestos Containing Material (ACM) with a wetting agent prior to, during and after demolition/renovation activities. The purpose of the document is to provide guidance to asbestos inspectors and the regulated community on how to determine if friable ACM is adequately wet as required by the Asbestos NESHAP.

  19. Facultative Control of Matrix Production Optimizes Competitive Fitness in Pseudomonas aeruginosa PA14 Biofilm Models

    PubMed Central

    Madsen, Jonas S.; Lin, Yu-Cheng; Squyres, Georgia R.; Price-Whelan, Alexa; de Santiago Torio, Ana; Song, Angela; Cornell, William C.; Sørensen, Søren J.

    2015-01-01

    As biofilms grow, resident cells inevitably face the challenge of resource limitation. In the opportunistic pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa PA14, electron acceptor availability affects matrix production and, as a result, biofilm morphogenesis. The secreted matrix polysaccharide Pel is required for pellicle formation and for colony wrinkling, two activities that promote access to O2. We examined the exploitability and evolvability of Pel production at the air-liquid interface (during pellicle formation) and on solid surfaces (during colony formation). Although Pel contributes to the developmental response to electron acceptor limitation in both biofilm formation regimes, we found variation in the exploitability of its production and necessity for competitive fitness between the two systems. The wild type showed a competitive advantage against a non-Pel-producing mutant in pellicles but no advantage in colonies. Adaptation to the pellicle environment selected for mutants with a competitive advantage against the wild type in pellicles but also caused a severe disadvantage in colonies, even in wrinkled colony centers. Evolution in the colony center produced divergent phenotypes, while adaptation to the colony edge produced mutants with clear competitive advantages against the wild type in this O2-replete niche. In general, the structurally heterogeneous colony environment promoted more diversification than the more homogeneous pellicle. These results suggest that the role of Pel in community structure formation in response to electron acceptor limitation is unique to specific biofilm models and that the facultative control of Pel production is required for PA14 to maintain optimum benefit in different types of communities. PMID:26431965

  20. A Person-Centered Approach to P-E Fit Questions Using a Multiple-Trait Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    De Fruyt, Filip

    2002-01-01

    Employed college students (n=401) completed the Self-Directed Search and NEO Personality Inventory-Revised. Person-environment fit across Holland's six personality types predicted job satisfaction and skill development. Five-Factor Model traits significantly predicted intrinsic career outcomes. Use of the five-factor, person-centered approach to…

  1. Adjusting the Adjusted X[superscript 2]/df Ratio Statistic for Dichotomous Item Response Theory Analyses: Does the Model Fit?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tay, Louis; Drasgow, Fritz

    2012-01-01

    Two Monte Carlo simulation studies investigated the effectiveness of the mean adjusted X[superscript 2]/df statistic proposed by Drasgow and colleagues and, because of problems with the method, a new approach for assessing the goodness of fit of an item response theory model was developed. It has been previously recommended that mean adjusted…

  2. Limited-Information Goodness-of-Fit Testing of Diagnostic Classification Item Response Theory Models. CRESST Report 840

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hansen, Mark; Cai, Li; Monroe, Scott; Li, Zhen

    2014-01-01

    It is a well-known problem in testing the fit of models to multinomial data that the full underlying contingency table will inevitably be sparse for tests of reasonable length and for realistic sample sizes. Under such conditions, full-information test statistics such as Pearson's X[superscript 2]?? and the likelihood ratio statistic…

  3. The Effect of Fitting a Unidimensional IRT Model to Multidimensional Data in Content-Balanced Computerized Adaptive Testing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Song, Tian

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the effect of fitting a unidimensional IRT model to multidimensional data in content-balanced computerized adaptive testing (CAT). Unconstrained CAT with the maximum information item selection method is chosen as the baseline, and the performances of three content balancing procedures, the constrained CAT (CCAT), the…

  4. Promoting Fitness and Safety in Elementary Students: A Randomized Control Study of the Michigan Model for Health

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Neill, James M.; Clark, Jeffrey K.; Jones, James A.

    2016-01-01

    Background: In elementary grades, comprehensive health education curricula have demonstrated effectiveness in addressing singular health issues. The Michigan Model for Health (MMH) was implemented and evaluated to determine its impact on nutrition, physical fitness, and safety knowledge and skills. Methods: Schools (N = 52) were randomly assigned…

  5. The Use of the L[subscript z] and L[subscript z]* Person-Fit Statistics and Problems Derived from Model Misspecification

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meijer, Rob R.; Tendeiro, Jorge N.

    2012-01-01

    We extend a recent didactic by Magis, Raiche, and Beland on the use of the l[subscript z] and l[subscript z]* person-fit statistics. We discuss a number of possibly confusing details and show that it is important to first investigate item response theory model fit before assessing person fit. Furthermore, it is argued that appropriate…

  6. Linking the Fits, Fitting the Links: Connecting Different Types of PO Fit to Attitudinal Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leung, Aegean; Chaturvedi, Sankalp

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we explore the linkages among various types of person-organization (PO) fit and their effects on employee attitudinal outcomes. We propose and test a conceptual model which links various types of fits--objective fit, perceived fit and subjective fit--in a hierarchical order of cognitive information processing and relate them to…

  7. Adequate supervision for children and adolescents.

    PubMed

    Anderst, James; Moffatt, Mary

    2014-11-01

    Primary care providers (PCPs) have the opportunity to improve child health and well-being by addressing supervision issues before an injury or exposure has occurred and/or after an injury or exposure has occurred. Appropriate anticipatory guidance on supervision at well-child visits can improve supervision of children, and may prevent future harm. Adequate supervision varies based on the child's development and maturity, and the risks in the child's environment. Consideration should be given to issues as wide ranging as swimming pools, falls, dating violence, and social media. By considering the likelihood of harm and the severity of the potential harm, caregivers may provide adequate supervision by minimizing risks to the child while still allowing the child to take "small" risks as needed for healthy development. Caregivers should initially focus on direct (visual, auditory, and proximity) supervision of the young child. Gradually, supervision needs to be adjusted as the child develops, emphasizing a safe environment and safe social interactions, with graduated independence. PCPs may foster adequate supervision by providing concrete guidance to caregivers. In addition to preventing injury, supervision includes fostering a safe, stable, and nurturing relationship with every child. PCPs should be familiar with age/developmentally based supervision risks, adequate supervision based on those risks, characteristics of neglectful supervision based on age/development, and ways to encourage appropriate supervision throughout childhood. PMID:25369578

  8. Small Rural Schools CAN Have Adequate Curriculums.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Loustaunau, Martha

    The small rural school's foremost and largest problem is providing an adequate curriculum for students in a changing world. Often the small district cannot or is not willing to pay the per-pupil cost of curriculum specialists, specialized courses using expensive equipment no more than one period a day, and remodeled rooms to accommodate new…

  9. Funding the Formula Adequately in Oklahoma

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hancock, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    This report is a longevity, simulational study that looks at how the ratio of state support to local support effects the number of school districts that breaks the common school's funding formula which in turns effects the equity of distribution to the common schools. After nearly two decades of adequately supporting the funding formula, Oklahoma…

  10. Spectral fitting to black hole candidates using radial-zoned thermal accretion disk model and the estimate of α.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, C.; Liang, E. P.

    Cyg X-1 has been a black hole candidate for years and people have got its spectra from various high energy detectors such as HEAO series and recently OSSE (see Ling, J. C. et al. 1987 & Grabelsky et al. 1993). Although much work has been done to fit its spectrum, most of the work assumed a Sunyaev-Titarchuk (1980) type spectrum a priori and then obtained the temperature and Thomson depth. It is, however, well known that a single temperature fit fails in the high energy tail, i.e. above hundreds of keV. Here the authors use the radial-zoned model proposed by Wandel & Liang (1991) to redo the fitting.

  11. Fast fitting of non-Gaussian state-space models to animal movement data via Template Model Builder.

    PubMed

    Albertsen, Christoffer Moesgaard; Whoriskey, Kim; Yurkowski, David; Nielsen, Anders; Mills, Joanna

    2015-10-01

    State-space models (SSM) are often used for analyzing complex ecological processes that are not observed directly, such as marine animal movement. When outliers are present in the measurements, special care is needed in the analysis to obtain reliable location and process estimates. Here we recommend using the Laplace approximation combined with automatic differentiation (as implemented in the novel R package Template Model Builder; TMB) for the fast fitting of continuous-time multivariate non-Gaussian SSMs. Through Argos satellite tracking data, we demonstrate that the use of continuous-time t-distributed measurement errors for error-prone data is more robust to outliers and improves the location estimation compared to using discretized-time t-distributed errors (implemented with a Gibbs sampler) or using continuous-time Gaussian errors (as with the Kalman filter). Using TMB, we are able to estimate additional parameters compared to previous methods, all without requiring a substantial increase in computational time. The model implementation is made available through the R package argosTrack. PMID:26649381

  12. Modeling Invasion Dynamics with Spatial Random-Fitness Due to Micro-Environment

    PubMed Central

    Manem, V. S. K.; Kaveh, K.; Kohandel, M.; Sivaloganathan, S.

    2015-01-01

    Numerous experimental studies have demonstrated that the microenvironment is a key regulator influencing the proliferative and migrative potentials of species. Spatial and temporal disturbances lead to adverse and hazardous microenvironments for cellular systems that is reflected in the phenotypic heterogeneity within the system. In this paper, we study the effect of microenvironment on the invasive capability of species, or mutants, on structured grids (in particular, square lattices) under the influence of site-dependent random proliferation in addition to a migration potential. We discuss both continuous and discrete fitness distributions. Our results suggest that the invasion probability is negatively correlated with the variance of fitness distribution of mutants (for both advantageous and neutral mutants) in the absence of migration of both types of cells. A similar behaviour is observed even in the presence of a random fitness distribution of host cells in the system with neutral fitness rate. In the case of a bimodal distribution, we observe zero invasion probability until the system reaches a (specific) proportion of advantageous phenotypes. Also, we find that the migrative potential amplifies the invasion probability as the variance of fitness of mutants increases in the system, which is the exact opposite in the absence of migration. Our computational framework captures the harsh microenvironmental conditions through quenched random fitness distributions and migration of cells, and our analysis shows that they play an important role in the invasion dynamics of several biological systems such as bacterial micro-habitats, epithelial dysplasia, and metastasis. We believe that our results may lead to more experimental studies, which can in turn provide further insights into the role and impact of heterogeneous environments on invasion dynamics. PMID:26509572

  13. Fluvial terrain models produced with Structure-from-Motion and optical bathymetric mapping: Fit for the purpose of numerical modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Javernick, L. A.; Caruso, B. S.; Measures, R.; Hicks, M.; Brasington, J.

    2013-12-01

    During the past decade, the advances in survey and sensor technology and three-dimensional morphologic analysis have been partially driven by the need for high resolution topography for physical and numerical fluvial modelling and have in return created new opportunities to investigate and model the structure and dynamics of fluvial systems. While the potential of such revolutionary survey technologies such as GPS, LiDAR, and terrestrial laser scanners have proven to produce high resolution fluvial terrain models, their high hardware and facility costs or labor intensive methods restrict data acquisition; thus limiting the extent and frequency of surveys. However, recent advances in computer vision and image analysis have led to the development of a novel, fully automated photogrammetric method to generate dense 3d point cloud data. This approach, termed Structure-from-Motion or SfM, requires only limited ground-control and is ideally suited to imagery obtained from low-cost, non-metric cameras acquired either at close-range or using aerial platforms. With numerous survey technologies available, there is a need to determine if simpler and more affordable methods are fit for the purpose of numerical modelling. To address this demand, the hydrodynamic numerical model Delft3D was utilized to simulate various flow conditions of a SfM produced terrain model. Using the SfM software PhotoScan (version 0.9.0) and optical bathymetric mapping, a 0.5 m resolution terrain model was generated for a 1.6 km reach of the braided Ahuriri River, New Zealand. This topography was imported into Delft3D where a 1.5 m and 2.5 m grid resolutions were generated and utilized to simulate a low, medium, and high flow conditions. Following a stringent calibration, hydraulic conditions of velocity, depth, and inundation were tested. Results reveal that average modelled depth errors were comparable to the SfM uncertainty (0.14 m average error), velocity errors of a small anabranch produced

  14. Curve fitting and modeling with splines using statistical variable selection techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, P. L.

    1982-01-01

    The successful application of statistical variable selection techniques to fit splines is demonstrated. Major emphasis is given to knot selection, but order determination is also discussed. Two FORTRAN backward elimination programs, using the B-spline basis, were developed. The program for knot elimination is compared in detail with two other spline-fitting methods and several statistical software packages. An example is also given for the two-variable case using a tensor product basis, with a theoretical discussion of the difficulties of their use.

  15. Use of evolutionary information in the fitting of atomic level protein models in low resolution cryo-EM map of a protein assembly improves the accuracy of the fitting.

    PubMed

    Joseph, Agnel P; Swapna, Lakshmipuram S; Rakesh, Ramachandran; Srinivasan, Narayanaswamy

    2016-09-01

    Protein-protein interface residues, especially those at the core of the interface, exhibit higher conservation than residues in solvent exposed regions. Here, we explore the ability of this differential conservation to evaluate fittings of atomic models in low-resolution cryo-EM maps and select models from the ensemble of solutions that are often proposed by different model fitting techniques. As a prelude, using a non-redundant and high-resolution structural dataset involving 125 permanent and 95 transient complexes, we confirm that core interface residues are conserved significantly better than nearby non-interface residues and this result is used in the cryo-EM map analysis. From the analysis of inter-component interfaces in a set of fitted models associated with low-resolution cryo-EM maps of ribosomes, chaperones and proteasomes we note that a few poorly conserved residues occur at interfaces. Interestingly a few conserved residues are not in the interface, though they are close to the interface. These observations raise the potential requirement of refitting the models in the cryo-EM maps. We show that sampling an ensemble of models and selection of models with high residue conservation at the interface and in good agreement with the density helps in improving the accuracy of the fit. This study indicates that evolutionary information can serve as an additional input to improve and validate fitting of atomic models in cryo-EM density maps. PMID:27444391

  16. Surface layer independent model fitting by phase matching: theory and application to HD 49933 and HD 177153 (aka Perky)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roxburgh, Ian W.

    2015-01-01

    Aims: Our aim is to describe the theory of surface layer independent model fitting by phase matching and to apply this to the stars HD 49933 observed by CoRoT, and HD 177153 (aka Perky) observed by Kepler. Methods: We use theoretical analysis, phase shifts, and model fitting. Results: We define the inner and outer phase shifts of a frequency set of a model star and show that the outer phase shifts are (almost) independent of degree ℓ, and that a function of the inner phase shifts (the phase function) collapses to an ℓ independent function of frequency in the outer layers. We then show how to use this result in a model fitting technique to find a best fit model to an observed frequency set by calculating the inner phase shifts of a model using the observed frequencies and determining the extent to which the phase function collapses to a single function of frequency in the outer layers. This technique does not depend on the radial order n assigned to the observed frequencies. We give two examples applying this technique to the frequency sets of HD 49933 observed by CoRoT and HD 177153 (aka Perky) observed by Kepler, for which measurements of angular diameters and bolometric fluxes are available. For HD 49933 we find a very wide range of models to be consistent with the data (all with convective core overshooting) - and conclude that the data is not precise enough to make any useful restrictions on the structure of this star. For HD 177153 our best fit models have no convective cores, masses in the range 1.15-1.17 M⊙, ages of 4.45-4.70 × 109 yr, Z in the range 0.021-0.024, XH = 0.71-0.72, Y = 0.256 - 0.266 and mixing length parameter α = 1.8. We compare our results to those of previous studies. We contrast the phase matching technique to that using the ratios of small to large separations, showing that it avoids the problem of correlated errors in separation ratio fitting and of assigning radial order n to the modes.

  17. Model-based analysis of multi-shell diffusion MR data for tractography: How to get over fitting problems

    PubMed Central

    Jbabdi, Saad; Sotiropoulos, Stamatios N; Savio, Alexander M; Graña, Manuel; Behrens, Timothy EJ

    2012-01-01

    In this article, we highlight an issue that arises when using multiple b-values in a model-based analysis of diffusion MR data for tractography. The non-mono-exponential decay, commonly observed in experimental data, is shown to induce over-fitting in the distribution of fibre orientations when not considered in the model. Extra fibre orientations perpendicular to the main orientation arise to compensate for the slower apparent signal decay at higher b-values. We propose a simple extension to the ball and stick model based on a continuous Gamma distribution of diffusivities, which significantly improves the fitting and reduces the over-fitting. Using in-vivo experimental data, we show that this model outperforms a simpler, noise floor model, especially at the interfaces between brain tissues, suggesting that partial volume effects are a major cause of the observed non-mono-exponential decay. This model may be helpful for future data acquisition strategies that may attempt to combine multiple shells to improve estimates of fibre orientations in white matter and near the cortex. PMID:22334356

  18. Work, Family, and Mental Health: Testing Different Models of Work-Family Fit.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grzywacz, Joseph G.; Bass, Brenda L.

    2003-01-01

    Using family resilience theory, this study examined the effects of work-family conflict and work-family facilitation on mental health among working adults to gain a better understanding of work-family fit. Results suggest that family to work facilitation is a family protective factor that offsets and buffers the deleterious effects of work-family…

  19. Testing the Youth Physical Activity Promotion Model: Fatness and Fitness as Enabling Factors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Senlin; Welk, Gregory J.; Joens-Matre, Roxane R.

    2014-01-01

    As the prevalence of childhood obesity increases, it is important to examine possible differences in psychosocial correlates of physical activity between normal weight and overweight children. The study examined fatness (weight status) and (aerobic) fitness as Enabling factors related to youth physical activity within the Youth Physical Activity…

  20. Implementation of a Personal Fitness Unit Using the Personalized System of Instruction Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prewitt, Steven; Hannon, James C.; Colquitt, Gavin; Brusseau, Timothy A.; Newton, Maria; Shaw, Janet

    2015-01-01

    Levels of physical activity and health-related fitness (HRF) are decreasing among adolescents in the United States. Several interventions have been implemented to reverse this downtrend. Traditionally, physical educators incorporate a direct instruction (DI) strategy, with teaching potentially leading students to disengage during class. An…

  1. Gray Matter Correlates of Fluid, Crystallized, and Spatial Intelligence: Testing the P-FIT Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Colom, Roberto; Haier, Richard J.; Head, Kevin; Alvarez-Linera, Juan; Quiroga, Maria Angeles; Shih, Pei Chun; Jung, Rex E.

    2009-01-01

    The parieto-frontal integration theory (P-FIT) nominates several areas distributed throughout the brain as relevant for intelligence. This theory was derived from previously published studies using a variety of both imaging methods and tests of cognitive ability. Here we test this theory in a new sample of young healthy adults (N = 100) using a…

  2. Role Modeling Attitudes and Physical Activity and Fitness Promoting Behaviors of HPERD Professionals and Preprofessionals.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cardinal, Bradley J.

    2001-01-01

    Investigated the physical activity and fitness promoting behaviors of health, physical education, recreation, and dance professionals and preprofessionals. Survey data indicated that most respondents were physically active. Overall, overweight and obesity rates were considerably lower than rates reported in the general U.S. adult population. Role…

  3. CALORIMETRY OF GRB 030329: SIMULTANEOUS MODEL FITTING TO THE BROADBAND RADIO AFTERGLOW AND THE OBSERVED IMAGE EXPANSION RATE

    SciTech Connect

    Mesler, Robert A.; Pihlstroem, Ylva M.

    2013-09-01

    We perform calorimetry on the bright gamma-ray burst GRB 030329 by fitting simultaneously the broadband radio afterglow and the observed afterglow image size to a semi-analytic MHD and afterglow emission model. Our semi-analytic method is valid in both the relativistic and non-relativistic regimes, and incorporates a model of the interstellar scintillation that substantially effects the broadband afterglow below 10 GHz. The model is fitted to archival measurements of the afterglow flux from 1 day to 8.3 yr after the burst. Values for the initial burst parameters are determined and the nature of the circumburst medium is explored. Additionally, direct measurements of the lateral expansion rate of the radio afterglow image size allow us to estimate the initial Lorentz factor of the jet.

  4. Kompaneets Model Fitting of the Orion-Eridanus Superbubble. II. Thinking Outside of Barnard’s Loop

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pon, Andy; Ochsendorf, Bram B.; Alves, João; Bally, John; Basu, Shantanu; Tielens, Alexander G. G. M.

    2016-08-01

    The Orion star-forming region is the nearest active high-mass star-forming region and has created a large superbubble, the Orion–Eridanus superbubble. Recent work by Ochsendorf et al. has extended the accepted boundary of the superbubble. We fit Kompaneets models of superbubbles expanding in exponential atmospheres to the new larger shape of the Orion–Eridanus superbubble. We find that this larger morphology of the superbubble is consistent with the evolution of the superbubble being primarily controlled by expansion into the exponential Galactic disk ISM if the superbubble is oriented with the Eridanus side farther from the Sun than the Orion side. Unlike previous Kompaneets model fits that required abnormally small scale heights for the Galactic disk (<40 pc), we find morphologically consistent models with scale heights of 80 pc, similar to that expected for the Galactic disk.

  5. Biomechanical modeling of acetabular component polyethylene stresses, fracture risk, and wear rate following press-fit implantation.

    PubMed

    Ong, Kevin L; Rundell, Steve; Liepins, Imants; Laurent, Ryan; Markel, David; Kurtz, Steven M

    2009-11-01

    Press-fit implantation may result in acetabular component deformation between the ischial-ilial columns ("pinching"). The biomechanical and clinical consequences of liner pinching due to press-fit implantation have not been well studied. We compared the effects of pinching on the polyethylene fracture risk, potential wear rate, and stresses for two different thickness liners using computational methods. Line-to-line ("no pinch") reaming and 2 mm underreaming press fit ("pinch") conditions were examined for Trident cups with X3 polyethylene liner wall thicknesses of 5.9 mm (36E) and 3.8 mm (40E). Press-fit cup deformations were measured from a foam block configuration. A hybrid material model, calibrated to experimentally determined stress-strain behavior of sequentially annealed polyethylene, was applied to the computational model. Molecular chain stretch did not exceed the fracture threshold in any cases. Nominal shell pinch of 0.28 mm was estimated to increase the volumetric wear rate by 70% for both cups and peak contact stresses by 140 and 170% for the 5.9 and 3.8 mm-thick liners, respectively. Although pinching increases liner stresses, polyethylene fracture is highly unlikely, and the volumetric wear rates are likely to be low compared to conventional polyethylene. PMID:19489047

  6. Fitting mathematical models to lactation curves from Holstein cows in the southwestern region of the state of Parana, Brazil.

    PubMed

    Ferreira, Abílio G T; Henrique, Douglas S; Vieira, Ricardo A M; Maeda, Emilyn M; Valotto, Altair A

    2015-03-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate four mathematical models with regards to their fit to lactation curves of Holstein cows from herds raised in the southwestern region of the state of Parana, Brazil. Initially, 42,281 milk production records from 2005 to 2011 were obtained from "Associação Paranaense de Criadores de Bovinos da Raça Holandesa (APCBRH)". Data lacking dates of drying and total milk production at 305 days of lactation were excluded, resulting in a remaining 15,142 records corresponding to 2,441 Holstein cows. Data were sorted according to the parity order (ranging from one to six), and within each parity order the animals were divided into quartiles (Q25%, Q50%, Q75% and Q100%) corresponding to 305-day lactation yield. Within each parity order, for each quartile, four mathematical models were adjusted, two of which were predominantly empirical (Brody and Wood) whereas the other two presented more mechanistic characteristics (models Dijkstra and Pollott). The quality of fit was evaluated by the corrected Akaike information criterion. The Wood model showed the best fit in almost all evaluated situations and, therefore, may be considered as the most suitable model to describe, at least empirically, the lactation curves of Holstein cows raised in Southwestern Parana. PMID:25806994

  7. Spectral fits with TCAF model : A global understanding of both temporal and spectral properties of black hole sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Debnath, Dipak; Sarathi Pal, Partha; Chakrabarti, Sandip Kumar; Mondal, Santanu; Jana, Arghajit; Chatterjee, Debjit; Molla, Aslam Ali

    2016-07-01

    There are many theoretical and phenomenological models in the literature which explain physics of accretion around black holes (BHs). Some of these models assume ad hoc components to explain different timing and spectral aspects of black hole candidates (BHCs) which no necessarily follow from physical equations. Chakrabarti and his collaborators, on the other hand claim in the last two decades that the spectral and timing properties of BHCs must not be treated separately since variation of these properties happens due to variation of two component (Keplerian and sub-Keplerian) accretion flow rates, and the Compton cloud parameters only. Recently after the inclusion of Two-component advective flow (TCAF) model in to HEASARC's spectral analysis software package XSPEC as an additive local model, we found that TCAF is quite capable to describe the underlying accretion flow dynamics around BHs with spectral fitted physical parameters. Properties of different spectral states and their transitions during an outburst of a transient BHC are more clear. A strong correlation between spectral and timing properties could also be seen in Accretion Rate Ratio Intensity Diagram (ARRID), where transitions between different spectral states are prominent. One can also predict frequency of the dominating quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) from TCAF model fitted shock parameters and even predict the most probable mass range of an unknown BHC from TCAF fits. This gives us a confidence that the description of accretion process is more clear than ever before.

  8. Seasonality of Influenza A(H7N9) Virus in China—Fitting Simple Epidemic Models to Human Cases

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Qianying; Lin, Zhigui; Chiu, Alice P. Y.; He, Daihai

    2016-01-01

    Background Three epidemic waves of influenza A(H7N9) (hereafter ‘H7N9’) human cases have occurred between March 2013 and July 2015 in China. However, the underlying transmission mechanism remains unclear. Our main objective is to use mathematical models to study how seasonality, secular changes and environmental transmission play a role in the spread of H7N9 in China. Methods Data on human cases and chicken cases of H7N9 infection were downloaded from the EMPRES-i Global Animal Disease Information System. We modelled on chicken-to-chicken transmission, assuming a constant ratio of 10−6 human case per chicken case, and compared the model fit with the observed human cases. We developed three different modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible models: (i) a non-periodic transmission rate model with an environmental class, (ii) a non-periodic transmission rate model without an environmental class, and (iii) a periodic transmission rate model with an environmental class. We then estimated the key epidemiological parameters and compared the model fit using Akaike Information Criterion and Bayesian Information Criterion. Results Our results showed that a non-periodic transmission rate model with an environmental class provided the best model fit to the observed human cases in China during the study period. The estimated parameter values were within biologically plausible ranges. Conclusions This study highlighted the importance of considering secular changes and environmental transmission in the modelling of human H7N9 cases. Secular changes were most likely due to control measures such as Live Poultry Markets closures that were implemented during the initial phase of the outbreaks in China. Our results suggested that environmental transmission via viral shedding of infected chickens had contributed to the spread of H7N9 human cases in China. PMID:26963937

  9. Implementation of the Iterative Proportion Fitting Algorithm for Geostatistical Facies Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Li Yupeng Deutsch, Clayton V.

    2012-06-15

    In geostatistics, most stochastic algorithm for simulation of categorical variables such as facies or rock types require a conditional probability distribution. The multivariate probability distribution of all the grouped locations including the unsampled location permits calculation of the conditional probability directly based on its definition. In this article, the iterative proportion fitting (IPF) algorithm is implemented to infer this multivariate probability. Using the IPF algorithm, the multivariate probability is obtained by iterative modification to an initial estimated multivariate probability using lower order bivariate probabilities as constraints. The imposed bivariate marginal probabilities are inferred from profiles along drill holes or wells. In the IPF process, a sparse matrix is used to calculate the marginal probabilities from the multivariate probability, which makes the iterative fitting more tractable and practical. This algorithm can be extended to higher order marginal probability constraints as used in multiple point statistics. The theoretical framework is developed and illustrated with estimation and simulation example.

  10. Modeling and Maximum Likelihood Fitting of Gamma-Ray and Radio Light Curves of Millisecond Pulsars Detected with Fermi

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, T. J.; Harding, A. K.; Venter, C.

    2012-01-01

    Pulsed gamma rays have been detected with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) from more than 20 millisecond pulsars (MSPs), some of which were discovered in radio observations of bright, unassociated LAT sources. We have fit the radio and gamma-ray light curves of 19 LAT-detected MSPs in the context of geometric, outermagnetospheric emission models assuming the retarded vacuum dipole magnetic field using a Markov chain Monte Carlo maximum likelihood technique. We find that, in many cases, the models are able to reproduce the observed light curves well and provide constraints on the viewing geometries that are in agreement with those from radio polarization measurements. Additionally, for some MSPs we constrain the altitudes of both the gamma-ray and radio emission regions. The best-fit magnetic inclination angles are found to cover a broader range than those of non-recycled gamma-ray pulsars.

  11. Impaired Virulence and Fitness of a Colistin-Resistant Clinical Isolate of Acinetobacter baumannii in a Rat Model of Pneumonia

    PubMed Central

    Hraiech, Sami; Roch, Antoine; Lepidi, Hubert; Atieh, Thérèse; Audoly, Gilles; Rolain, Jean-Marc; Raoult, Didier; Brunel, Jean-Michel; Papazian, Laurent

    2013-01-01

    We compared the fitness and lung pathogenicity of two isogenic clinical isolates of Acinetobacter baumannii, one resistant (ABCR) and the other susceptible (ABCS) to colistin. In vitro, ABCR exhibited slower growth kinetics than ABCS. In a rat model of pneumonia, ABCR was associated with less pronounced signs of infection (lung bacterial count, systemic dissemination, and lung damage) and a better outcome (ABCR and ABCS mortality rates, 20 and 50%, respectively [P = 0.03]). PMID:23836181

  12. Comparison of model fitting and gated integration for pulse shape discrimination and spectral estimation of digitized lanthanum halide scintillator pulses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McFee, J. E.; Mosquera, C. M.; Faust, A. A.

    2016-08-01

    An analysis of digitized pulse waveforms from experiments with LaBr3(Ce) and LaCl3(Ce) detectors is presented. Pulse waveforms from both scintillator types were captured in the presence of 22Na and 60Co sources and also background alone. Two methods to extract pulse shape discrimination (PSD) parameters and estimate energy spectra were compared. The first involved least squares fitting of the pulse waveforms to a physics-based model of one or two exponentially modified Gaussian functions. The second was the conventional gated integration method. The model fitting method produced better PSD than gated integration for LaCl3(Ce) and higher resolution energy spectra for both scintillator types. A disadvantage to the model fitting approach is that it is more computationally complex and about 5 times slower. LaBr3(Ce) waveforms had a single decay component and showed no ability for alpha/electron PSD. LaCl3(Ce) was observed to have short and long decay components and alpha/electron discrimination was observed.

  13. Fitting and Calibrating a Multilevel Mixed-Effects Stem Taper Model for Maritime Pine in NW Spain

    PubMed Central

    Arias-Rodil, Manuel; Castedo-Dorado, Fernando; Cámara-Obregón, Asunción; Diéguez-Aranda, Ulises

    2015-01-01

    Stem taper data are usually hierarchical (several measurements per tree, and several trees per plot), making application of a multilevel mixed-effects modelling approach essential. However, correlation between trees in the same plot/stand has often been ignored in previous studies. Fitting and calibration of a variable-exponent stem taper function were conducted using data from 420 trees felled in even-aged maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) stands in NW Spain. In the fitting step, the tree level explained much more variability than the plot level, and therefore calibration at plot level was omitted. Several stem heights were evaluated for measurement of the additional diameter needed for calibration at tree level. Calibration with an additional diameter measured at between 40 and 60% of total tree height showed the greatest improvement in volume and diameter predictions. If additional diameter measurement is not available, the fixed-effects model fitted by the ordinary least squares technique should be used. Finally, we also evaluated how the expansion of parameters with random effects affects the stem taper prediction, as we consider this a key question when applying the mixed-effects modelling approach to taper equations. The results showed that correlation between random effects should be taken into account when assessing the influence of random effects in stem taper prediction. PMID:26630156

  14. Fitting and Calibrating a Multilevel Mixed-Effects Stem Taper Model for Maritime Pine in NW Spain.

    PubMed

    Arias-Rodil, Manuel; Castedo-Dorado, Fernando; Cámara-Obregón, Asunción; Diéguez-Aranda, Ulises

    2015-01-01

    Stem taper data are usually hierarchical (several measurements per tree, and several trees per plot), making application of a multilevel mixed-effects modelling approach essential. However, correlation between trees in the same plot/stand has often been ignored in previous studies. Fitting and calibration of a variable-exponent stem taper function were conducted using data from 420 trees felled in even-aged maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) stands in NW Spain. In the fitting step, the tree level explained much more variability than the plot level, and therefore calibration at plot level was omitted. Several stem heights were evaluated for measurement of the additional diameter needed for calibration at tree level. Calibration with an additional diameter measured at between 40 and 60% of total tree height showed the greatest improvement in volume and diameter predictions. If additional diameter measurement is not available, the fixed-effects model fitted by the ordinary least squares technique should be used. Finally, we also evaluated how the expansion of parameters with random effects affects the stem taper prediction, as we consider this a key question when applying the mixed-effects modelling approach to taper equations. The results showed that correlation between random effects should be taken into account when assessing the influence of random effects in stem taper prediction. PMID:26630156

  15. Selecting best-fit models for estimating the body mass from 3D data of the human calcaneus.

    PubMed

    Jung, Go-Un; Lee, U-Young; Kim, Dong-Ho; Kwak, Dai-Soon; Ahn, Yong-Woo; Han, Seung-Ho; Kim, Yi-Suk

    2016-05-01

    Body mass (BM) estimation could facilitate the interpretation of skeletal materials in terms of the individual's body size and physique in forensic anthropology. However, few metric studies have tried to estimate BM by focusing on prominent biomechanical properties of the calcaneus. The purpose of this study was to prepare best-fit models for estimating BM from the 3D human calcaneus by two major linear regression analysis (the heuristic statistical and all-possible-regressions techniques) and validate the models through predicted residual sum of squares (PRESS) statistics. A metric analysis was conducted based on 70 human calcaneus samples (29 males and 41 females) taken from 3D models in the Digital Korean Database and 10 variables were measured for each sample. Three best-fit models were postulated by F-statistics, Mallows' Cp, and Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayes information criterion (BIC) for each available candidate models. Finally, the most accurate regression model yields lowest %SEE and 0.843 of R(2). Through the application of leave-one-out cross validation, the predictive power was indicated a high level of validation accuracy. This study also confirms that the equations for estimating BM using 3D models of human calcaneus will be helpful to establish identification in forensic cases with consistent reliability. PMID:26970867

  16. Evaluation of RGP Contact Lens Fitting in Keratoconus Patients Using Hierarchical Fuzzy Model and Genetic Algorithms.

    PubMed

    Falahati Marvast, Fatemeh; Arabalibeik, Hossein; Alipour, Fatemeh; Sheikhtaheri, Abbas; Nouri, Leila; Soozande, Mehdi; Yarmahmoodi, Masood

    2016-01-01

    Keratoconus is a progressive non-inflammatory disease of the cornea. Rigid gas permeable contact lenses (RGPs) are prescribed when the disease progresses. Contact lens fitting and assessment is very difficult in these patients and is a concern of ophthalmologists and optometrists. In this study, a hierarchical fuzzy system is used to capture the expertise of experienced ophthalmologists during the lens evaluation phase of prescription. The system is fine-tuned using genetic algorithms. Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of the final system are 88.9%, 94.4% and 92.6% respectively. PMID:27046564

  17. Survival analysis of clinical mastitis data using a nested frailty Cox model fit as a mixed-effects Poisson model.

    PubMed

    Elghafghuf, Adel; Dufour, Simon; Reyher, Kristen; Dohoo, Ian; Stryhn, Henrik

    2014-12-01

    Mastitis is a complex disease affecting dairy cows and is considered to be the most costly disease of dairy herds. The hazard of mastitis is a function of many factors, both managerial and environmental, making its control a difficult issue to milk producers. Observational studies of clinical mastitis (CM) often generate datasets with a number of characteristics which influence the analysis of those data: the outcome of interest may be the time to occurrence of a case of mastitis, predictors may change over time (time-dependent predictors), the effects of factors may change over time (time-dependent effects), there are usually multiple hierarchical levels, and datasets may be very large. Analysis of such data often requires expansion of the data into the counting-process format - leading to larger datasets - thus complicating the analysis and requiring excessive computing time. In this study, a nested frailty Cox model with time-dependent predictors and effects was applied to Canadian Bovine Mastitis Research Network data in which 10,831 lactations of 8035 cows from 69 herds were followed through lactation until the first occurrence of CM. The model was fit to the data as a Poisson model with nested normally distributed random effects at the cow and herd levels. Risk factors associated with the hazard of CM during the lactation were identified, such as parity, calving season, herd somatic cell score, pasture access, fore-stripping, and proportion of treated cases of CM in a herd. The analysis showed that most of the predictors had a strong effect early in lactation and also demonstrated substantial variation in the baseline hazard among cows and between herds. A small simulation study for a setting similar to the real data was conducted to evaluate the Poisson maximum likelihood estimation approach with both Gaussian quadrature method and Laplace approximation. Further, the performance of the two methods was compared with the performance of a widely used estimation

  18. Detecting Mixtures from Structural Model Differences Using Latent Variable Mixture Modeling: A Comparison of Relative Model Fit Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Henson, James M.; Reise, Steven P.; Kim, Kevin H.

    2007-01-01

    The accuracy of structural model parameter estimates in latent variable mixture modeling was explored with a 3 (sample size) [times] 3 (exogenous latent mean difference) [times] 3 (endogenous latent mean difference) [times] 3 (correlation between factors) [times] 3 (mixture proportions) factorial design. In addition, the efficacy of several…

  19. Fabrication of single-electron devices using dispersed nanoparticles and fitting experimental results to values calculated based on percolation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moriya, Masataka; Huong, Tran Thi Thu; Matsumoto, Kazuhiko; Shimada, Hiroshi; Kimura, Yasuo; Hirano-Iwata, Ayumi; Mizugaki, Yoshinao

    2016-08-01

    We calculated the connection probability, P C, between electrodes on the basis of the triangular lattice percolation model for investigating the effect of distance variation between electrodes and the electrode width on fabricated capacitively coupled single-electron transistors. Single-electron devices were fabricated via the dispersion of gold nanoparticles (NPs). The NPs were dispersed via the repeated dropping of an NP solution onto a chip. The experimental results were fitted to the calculated values, and the fitting parameters were compared with the occupation probability, P O, which was estimated for one drop of the NP solution. On the basis of curves of the drain current versus the drain-source voltage ( I D- V DS) measured at 77 K, the current was suppressed at approximately 0 V.

  20. An improved cognitive model of the Iowa and Soochow Gambling Tasks with regard to model fitting performance and tests of parameter consistency

    PubMed Central

    Dai, Junyi; Kerestes, Rebecca; Upton, Daniel J.; Busemeyer, Jerome R.; Stout, Julie C.

    2015-01-01

    The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and the Soochow Gambling Task (SGT) are two experience-based risky decision-making tasks for examining decision-making deficits in clinical populations. Several cognitive models, including the expectancy-valence learning (EVL) model and the prospect valence learning (PVL) model, have been developed to disentangle the motivational, cognitive, and response processes underlying the explicit choices in these tasks. The purpose of the current study was to develop an improved model that can fit empirical data better than the EVL and PVL models and, in addition, produce more consistent parameter estimates across the IGT and SGT. Twenty-six opiate users (mean age 34.23; SD 8.79) and 27 control participants (mean age 35; SD 10.44) completed both tasks. Eighteen cognitive models varying in evaluation, updating, and choice rules were fit to individual data and their performances were compared to that of a statistical baseline model to find a best fitting model. The results showed that the model combining the prospect utility function treating gains and losses separately, the decay-reinforcement updating rule, and the trial-independent choice rule performed the best in both tasks. Furthermore, the winning model produced more consistent individual parameter estimates across the two tasks than any of the other models. PMID:25814963

  1. Neural network hydrological modelling: on questions of over-fitting, over-training and over-parameterisation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abrahart, R. J.; Dawson, C. W.; Heppenstall, A. J.; See, L. M.

    2009-04-01

    The most critical issue in developing a neural network model is generalisation: how well will the preferred solution perform when it is applied to unseen datasets? The reported experiments used far-reaching sequences of model architectures and training periods to investigate the potential damage that could result from the impact of several interrelated items: (i) over-fitting - a machine learning concept related to exceeding some optimal architectural size; (ii) over-training - a machine learning concept related to the amount of adjustment that is applied to a specific model - based on the understanding that too much fine-tuning might result in a model that had accommodated random aspects of its training dataset - items that had no causal relationship to the target function; and (iii) over-parameterisation - a statistical modelling concept that is used to restrict the number of parameters in a model so as to match the information content of its calibration dataset. The last item in this triplet stems from an understanding that excessive computational complexities might permit an absurd and false solution to be fitted to the available material. Numerous feedforward multilayered perceptrons were trialled and tested. Two different methods of model construction were also compared and contrasted: (i) traditional Backpropagation of Error; and (ii) state-of-the-art Symbiotic Adaptive Neuro-Evolution. Modelling solutions were developed using the reported experimental set ups of Gaume & Gosset (2003). The models were applied to a near-linear hydrological modelling scenario in which past upstream and past downstream discharge records were used to forecast current discharge at the downstream gauging station [CS1: River Marne]; and a non-linear hydrological modelling scenario in which past river discharge measurements and past local meteorological records (precipitation and evaporation) were used to forecast current discharge at the river gauging station [CS2: Le Sauzay].

  2. Genome-Enabled Modeling of Biogeochemical Processes Predicts Metabolic Dependencies that Connect the Relative Fitness of Microbial Functional Guilds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brodie, E.; King, E.; Molins, S.; Karaoz, U.; Steefel, C. I.; Banfield, J. F.; Beller, H. R.; Anantharaman, K.; Ligocki, T. J.; Trebotich, D.

    2015-12-01

    Pore-scale processes mediated by microorganisms underlie a range of critical ecosystem services, regulating carbon stability, nutrient flux, and the purification of water. Advances in cultivation-independent approaches now provide us with the ability to reconstruct thousands of genomes from microbial populations from which functional roles may be assigned. With this capability to reveal microbial metabolic potential, the next step is to put these microbes back where they belong to interact with their natural environment, i.e. the pore scale. At this scale, microorganisms communicate, cooperate and compete across their fitness landscapes with communities emerging that feedback on the physical and chemical properties of their environment, ultimately altering the fitness landscape and selecting for new microbial communities with new properties and so on. We have developed a trait-based model of microbial activity that simulates coupled functional guilds that are parameterized with unique combinations of traits that govern fitness under dynamic conditions. Using a reactive transport framework, we simulate the thermodynamics of coupled electron donor-acceptor reactions to predict energy available for cellular maintenance, respiration, biomass development, and enzyme production. From metagenomics, we directly estimate some trait values related to growth and identify the linkage of key traits associated with respiration and fermentation, macromolecule depolymerizing enzymes, and other key functions such as nitrogen fixation. Our simulations were carried out to explore abiotic controls on community emergence such as seasonally fluctuating water table regimes across floodplain organic matter hotspots. Simulations and metagenomic/metatranscriptomic observations highlighted the many dependencies connecting the relative fitness of functional guilds and the importance of chemolithoautotrophic lifestyles. Using an X-Ray microCT-derived soil microaggregate physical model combined

  3. New model fit functions of the plasmapause location determined using THEMIS observations during the ascending phase of Solar Cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, Junghee; Lee, Dae-Young; Kim, Jin-Hee; Shin, Dae-Kyu; Kim, Kyung-Chan; Turner, Drew

    2015-04-01

    It is well known that the plasmapause is influenced by the solar wind and magnetospheric conditions. Empirical models of its location have been previously developed such as those by O'Brien and Moldwin (2003) and Larsen et al. (2006). In this study, we identified the locations of the plasmapause using the plasma density data obtained from the Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) satellites. We used the data for the period (2008-2012) corresponding to the ascending phase of Solar Cycle 24. Our database includes data from over a year of unusually weak solar wind conditions, correspondingly covering the plasmapause locations in a wider L range than those in previous studies. It also contains many coronal hole stream intervals during which the plasmasphere is eroded and recovers over a timescale of several days. The plasmapause was rigorously determined by requiring a density gradient by a factor of 15 within a radial distance of 0.5 L. We first determined the statistical correlation of the plasmapause locations with several solar wind parameters as well as geomagnetic indices. We found that the plasmapause locations are well correlated with the solar wind speed and the interplanetary magnetic field Bz, therefore the y component of the convective electric field, and some energy coupling functions such as the well-known Akasofu's epsilon parameter. The plasmapause locations are also highly correlated with the geomagnetic indices, Dst, AE, and Kp, as recognized previously. Finally, we suggest new model fit functions for the plasmapause locations in terms of the solar wind parameters and geomagnetic indices. When applied to a new data interval outside the model training interval, our model fit functions work better than existing ones. The new model fit functions developed here extend the range of conditions from those used in previous works.

  4. Fit Indices Versus Test Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yuan, Ke-Hai

    2005-01-01

    Model evaluation is one of the most important aspects of structural equation modeling (SEM). Many model fit indices have been developed. It is not an exaggeration to say that nearly every publication using the SEM methodology has reported at least one fit index. Most fit indices are defined through test statistics. Studies and interpretation of…

  5. Geometric model-based fitting algorithm for orientation-selective PELDOR data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdullin, Dinar; Hagelueken, Gregor; Hunter, Robert I.; Smith, Graham M.; Schiemann, Olav

    2015-03-01

    Pulsed electron-electron double resonance (PELDOR or DEER) spectroscopy is frequently used to determine distances between spin centres in biomacromolecular systems. Experiments where mutual orientations of the spin pair are selectively excited provide the so-called orientation-selective PELDOR data. This data is characterised by the orientation dependence of the modulation depth parameter and of the dipolar frequencies. This dependence has to be taken into account in the data analysis in order to extract distance distributions accurately from the experimental time traces. In this work, a fitting algorithm for such data analysis is discussed. The approach is tested on PELDOR data-sets from the literature and is compared with the previous results.

  6. Seeking for Spin-Opposite-Scaled Double-Hybrid Models Free of Fitted Parameters.

    PubMed

    Alipour, Mojtaba

    2016-05-26

    On the basis of theoretical arguments, a new exchange-correlation energy expression free of any fitted parameter has been proposed for spin-opposite-scaled double-hybrid density functionals (SOS0-DHs). Employing the recently presented DHs, the working expressions for SOS0-DH functionals are obtained and benchmarked numerically against several standard databases. Our test calculations show that for some cases such as interaction energies and barrier heights the SOS0-DHs without dispersion corrections perform better than their non-SOS counterparts. On the other hand, for other properties like atomization energies, the conventional DHs provide reliable results. We hope that the findings of this work can excite further developments of DH functionals in the framework of SOS scheme for a wide variety of applications resolving the failures at a reasonable computational cost. It seems that a bright future lies ahead in this arena. PMID:27163506

  7. A Paradox between IRT Invariance and Model-Data Fit When Utilizing the One-Parameter and Three-Parameter Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Custer, Michael; Sharairi, Sid; Yamazaki, Kenji; Signatur, Diane; Swift, David; Frey, Sharon

    2008-01-01

    The present study compared item and ability invariance as well as model-data fit between the one-parameter (1PL) and three-parameter (3PL) Item Response Theory (IRT) models utilizing real data across five grades; second through sixth as well as simulated data at second, fourth and sixth grade. At each grade, the 1PL and 3PL IRT models were run…

  8. Model-based 3D human shape estimation from silhouettes for virtual fitting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saito, Shunta; Kouchi, Makiko; Mochimaru, Masaaki; Aoki, Yoshimitsu

    2014-03-01

    We propose a model-based 3D human shape reconstruction system from two silhouettes. Firstly, we synthesize a deformable body model from 3D human shape database consists of a hundred whole body mesh models. Each mesh model is homologous, so that it has the same topology and same number of vertices among all models. We perform principal component analysis (PCA) on the database and synthesize an Active Shape Model (ASM). ASM allows changing the body type of the model with a few parameters. The pose changing of our model can be achieved by reconstructing the skeleton structures from implanted joints of the model. By applying pose changing after body type deformation, our model can represents various body types and any pose. We apply the model to the problem of 3D human shape reconstruction from front and side silhouette. Our approach is simply comparing the contours between the model's and input silhouettes', we then use only torso part contour of the model to reconstruct whole shape. We optimize the model parameters by minimizing the difference between corresponding silhouettes by using a stochastic, derivative-free non-linear optimization method, CMA-ES.

  9. Use of Approximate Bayesian Computation to Assess and Fit Models of Mycobacterium leprae to Predict Outcomes of the Brazilian Control Program.

    PubMed

    Smith, Rebecca Lee; Gröhn, Yrjö Tapio

    2015-01-01

    Hansen's disease (leprosy) elimination has proven difficult in several countries, including Brazil, and there is a need for a mathematical model that can predict control program efficacy. This study applied the Approximate Bayesian Computation algorithm to fit 6 different proposed models to each of the 5 regions of Brazil, then fitted hierarchical models based on the best-fit regional models to the entire country. The best model proposed for most regions was a simple model. Posterior checks found that the model results were more similar to the observed incidence after fitting than before, and that parameters varied slightly by region. Current control programs were predicted to require additional measures to eliminate Hansen's Disease as a public health problem in Brazil. PMID:26107951

  10. Use of Approximate Bayesian Computation to Assess and Fit Models of Mycobacterium leprae to Predict Outcomes of the Brazilian Control Program

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Rebecca Lee; Gröhn, Yrjö Tapio

    2015-01-01

    Hansen’s disease (leprosy) elimination has proven difficult in several countries, including Brazil, and there is a need for a mathematical model that can predict control program efficacy. This study applied the Approximate Bayesian Computation algorithm to fit 6 different proposed models to each of the 5 regions of Brazil, then fitted hierarchical models based on the best-fit regional models to the entire country. The best model proposed for most regions was a simple model. Posterior checks found that the model results were more similar to the observed incidence after fitting than before, and that parameters varied slightly by region. Current control programs were predicted to require additional measures to eliminate Hansen’s Disease as a public health problem in Brazil. PMID:26107951

  11. Fit Assessment of N95 Filtering-Facepiece Respirators in the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Strategic National Stockpile

    PubMed Central

    Bergman, Michael; Zhuang, Ziqing; Brochu, Elizabeth; Palmiero, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH)-approved N95 filtering-facepiece respirators (FFR) are currently stockpiled by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for emergency deployment to healthcare facilities in the event of a widespread emergency such as an influenza pandemic. This study assessed the fit of N95 FFRs purchased for the CDC Strategic National Stockpile. The study addresses the question of whether the fit achieved by specific respirator sizes relates to facial size categories as defined by two NIOSH fit test panels. Fit test data were analyzed from 229 test subjects who performed a nine-donning fit test on seven N95 FFR models using a quantitative fit test protocol. An initial respirator model selection process was used to determine if the subject could achieve an adequate fit on a particular model; subjects then tested the adequately fitting model for the nine-donning fit test. Only data for models which provided an adequate initial fit (through the model selection process) for a subject were analyzed for this study. For the nine-donning fit test, six of the seven respirator models accommodated the fit of subjects (as indicated by geometric mean fit factor > 100) for not only the intended NIOSH bivariate and PCA panel sizes corresponding to the respirator size, but also for other panel sizes which were tested for each model. The model which showed poor performance may not be accurately represented because only two subjects passed the initial selection criteria to use this model. Findings are supportive of the current selection of facial dimensions for the new NIOSH panels. The various FFR models selected for the CDC Strategic National Stockpile provide a range of sizing options to fit a variety of facial sizes. PMID:26877587

  12. Testing evolutionary models of senescence in a natural population: age and inbreeding effects on fitness components in song sparrows

    PubMed Central

    Keller, L.F; Reid, J.M; Arcese, P

    2008-01-01

    Mutation accumulation (MA) and antagonistic pleiotropy (AP) have each been hypothesized to explain the evolution of ‘senescence’ or deteriorating fitness in old age. These hypotheses make contrasting predictions concerning age dependence in inbreeding depression in traits that show senescence. Inbreeding depression is predicted to increase with age under MA but not under AP, suggesting one empirical means by which the two can be distinguished. We use pedigree and life-history data from free-living song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) to test for additive and interactive effects of age and individual inbreeding coefficient (f) on fitness components, and thereby assess the evidence for MA. Annual reproductive success (ARS) and survival (and therefore reproductive value) declined in old age in both sexes, indicating senescence in this short-lived bird. ARS declined with f in both sexes and survival declined with f in males, indicating inbreeding depression in fitness. We observed a significant age×f interaction for male ARS (reflecting increased inbreeding depression as males aged), but not for female ARS or survival in either sex. These analyses therefore provide mixed support for MA. We discuss the strengths and limitations of such analyses and therefore the value of natural pedigreed populations in testing evolutionary models of senescence. PMID:18211879

  13. Culture and Parenting: Family Models Are Not One-Size-Fits-All. FPG Snapshot #67

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    FPG Child Development Institute, 2012

    2012-01-01

    Family process models guide theories and research about family functioning and child development outcomes. Theory and research, in turn, inform policies and services aimed at families. But are widely accepted models valid across cultural groups? To address these gaps, FPG researchers examined the utility of two family process models for families…

  14. The Body Micropolitic: Where Do Women Educational Leaders Fit in the Easton Model of Policy Analysis?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Raveling, Joyce S.

    This paper asks where and how women and women's styles of leadership are situated in Easton's Model of Policy Process. The Easton Model provides a means of understanding policy development from a micropolitical perspective and offers analysis of environmental influences on policy decision making and implementation, allowing the model to…

  15. Fitting Proportional Odds Models to Educational Data in Ordinal Logistic Regression Using Stata, SAS and SPSS

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Xing

    2008-01-01

    The proportional odds (PO) model, which is also called cumulative odds model (Agresti, 1996, 2002 ; Armstrong & Sloan, 1989; Long, 1997, Long & Freese, 2006; McCullagh, 1980; McCullagh & Nelder, 1989; Powers & Xie, 2000; O'Connell, 2006), is one of the most commonly used models for the analysis of ordinal categorical data and comes from the class…

  16. Fitting the Normal-Ogive Factor Analytic Model to Scores on Tests.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ferrando, Pere J.; Lorenzo-Seva, Urbano

    2001-01-01

    Describes how the nonlinear factor analytic approach of R. McDonald to the normal ogive curve can be used to factor analyze test scores. Discusses the conditions in which this model is more appropriate than the linear model and illustrates the applicability of both models using an empirical example based on data from 1,769 adolescents who took the…

  17. Modelling the Factors that Affect Individuals' Utilisation of Online Learning Systems: An Empirical Study Combining the Task Technology Fit Model with the Theory of Planned Behaviour

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yu, Tai-Kuei; Yu, Tai-Yi

    2010-01-01

    Understanding learners' behaviour, perceptions and influence in terms of learner performance is crucial to predict the use of electronic learning systems. By integrating the task-technology fit (TTF) model and the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), this paper investigates the online learning utilisation of Taiwanese students. This paper provides a…

  18. Avalanche dynamics in the Bak-Sneppen evolution model observed with a standard distribution width of fitness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Chaohong; Zhu, Xiwen; Gao, Kelin

    2003-01-01

    We introduce the standard distribution width of fitness to characterize the global and individual features of an ecosystem described by the Bak-Sneppen evolution model. Through tracking this quantity in evolution, a different hierarchy of avalanche dynamics, the w0 avalanche, is observed. The corresponding gap equation and the self-organized threshold wc are obtained. The critical exponents τ, γ and ρ, which describe the behaviour of the avalanche size distribution, the average avalanche size and the relaxation to attractor, respectively, are calculated by numerical simulation. The exact master equation and γ equation are derived, and the scaling relations are established among the critical exponents of this new avalanche.

  19. Fitness Basics

    MedlinePlus

    ... that gets your heart pumping, such as dancing, running, or swimming laps. How hard you exercise matters, too. You can learn how to measure your workout to see if it is light, medium, or intense. Fitness for all Do you have an illness or ...

  20. Is a vegetarian diet adequate for children.

    PubMed

    Hackett, A; Nathan, I; Burgess, L

    1998-01-01

    The number of people who avoid eating meat is growing, especially among young people. Benefits to health from a vegetarian diet have been reported in adults but it is not clear to what extent these benefits are due to diet or to other aspects of lifestyles. In children concern has been expressed concerning the adequacy of vegetarian diets especially with regard to growth. The risks/benefits seem to be related to the degree of restriction of he diet; anaemia is probably both the main and the most serious risk but this also applies to omnivores. Vegan diets are more likely to be associated with malnutrition, especially if the diets are the result of authoritarian dogma. Overall, lacto-ovo-vegetarian children consume diets closer to recommendations than omnivores and their pre-pubertal growth is at least as good. The simplest strategy when becoming vegetarian may involve reliance on vegetarian convenience foods which are not necessarily superior in nutritional composition. The vegetarian sector of the food industry could do more to produce foods closer to recommendations. Vegetarian diets can be, but are not necessarily, adequate for children, providing vigilance is maintained, particularly to ensure variety. Identical comments apply to omnivorous diets. Three threats to the diet of children are too much reliance on convenience foods, lack of variety and lack of exercise. PMID:9670174

  1. A model to predict the frequency of integration of fitness-related QTLs from cultivated to wild soybean.

    PubMed

    Kitamoto, N; Kaga, A; Kuroda, Y; Ohsawa, R

    2012-02-01

    With the proliferation of genetically modified (GM) products and the almost exponential growth of land use for GM crops, there is a growing need to develop quantitative approaches to estimating the risk of escape of transgenes into wild populations of crop relatives by natural hybridization. We assessed the risk of transgene escape by constructing a population genetic model based on information on fitness-related QTLs obtained from an F (2) population of wild soybean G. soja × cultivated soybean Glycine max. Simulation started with ten F (1) and 990 wild soybeans reproducing by selfing or outcrossing. Seed production was determined from the genetic effects of two QTLs for number of seeds (SN). Each seed survived winter according to the maternal genotype at three QTLs for winter survival (WS). We assumed that one neutral transgene was inserted at various sites and calculated its extinction rate. The presence of G. max alleles at SN and WS QTLs significantly decreased the probability of introgression of the neutral transgene at all insertion sites equally. The presence of G. max alleles at WS QTLs lowered the risk more than their presence at SN QTLs. Although most model studies have concentrated only on genotypic effects of transgenes, we show that the presence of fitness-related domestication genes has a large effect on the risk of transgene escape. Our model offers the advantage of considering the effects of both domestication genes and a transgene, and they can be widely applied to other wild × crop relative complexes. PMID:21544624

  2. A basis approach to goodness-of-fit testing in recurrent event models

    PubMed Central

    Agustin, Ma. Zenia N.; Peña, Edsel A.

    2005-01-01

    A class of tests for the hypothesis that the baseline hazard function in Cox’s proportional hazards model and for a general recurrent event model belongs to a parametric family C ≡ {λ0(·; ξ): ξ ∈ Ξ} is proposed. Finite properties of the tests are examined via simulations, while asymptotic properties of the tests under a contiguous sequence of local alternatives are studied theoretically. An application of the tests to the general recurrent event model, which is an extended minimal repair model admitting covariates, is demonstrated. In addition, two real data sets are used to illustrate the applicability of the proposed tests. PMID:16967104

  3. Cognitive fitness.

    PubMed

    Gilkey, Roderick; Kilts, Clint

    2007-11-01

    Recent neuroscientific research shows that the health of your brain isn't, as experts once thought, just the product of childhood experiences and genetics; it reflects your adult choices and experiences as well. Professors Gilkey and Kilts of Emory University's medical and business schools explain how you can strengthen your brain's anatomy, neural networks, and cognitive abilities, and prevent functions such as memory from deteriorating as you age. The brain's alertness is the result of what the authors call cognitive fitness -a state of optimized ability to reason, remember, learn, plan, and adapt. Certain attitudes, lifestyle choices, and exercises enhance cognitive fitness. Mental workouts are the key. Brain-imaging studies indicate that acquiring expertise in areas as diverse as playing a cello, juggling, speaking a foreign language, and driving a taxicab expands your neural systems and makes them more communicative. In other words, you can alter the physical makeup of your brain by learning new skills. The more cognitively fit you are, the better equipped you are to make decisions, solve problems, and deal with stress and change. Cognitive fitness will help you be more open to new ideas and alternative perspectives. It will give you the capacity to change your behavior and realize your goals. You can delay senescence for years and even enjoy a second career. Drawing from the rapidly expanding body of neuroscience research as well as from well-established research in psychology and other mental health fields, the authors have identified four steps you can take to become cognitively fit: understand how experience makes the brain grow, work hard at play, search for patterns, and seek novelty and innovation. Together these steps capture some of the key opportunities for maintaining an engaged, creative brain. PMID:18159786

  4. MODELING THE NONLINEAR CLUSTERING IN MODIFIED GRAVITY MODELS. I. A FITTING FORMULA FOR THE MATTER POWER SPECTRUM OF f(R) GRAVITY

    SciTech Connect

    Zhao, Gong-Bo

    2014-04-01

    Based on a suite of N-body simulations of the Hu-Sawicki model of f(R) gravity with different sets of model and cosmological parameters, we develop a new fitting formula with a numeric code, MGHalofit, to calculate the nonlinear matter power spectrum P(k) for the Hu-Sawicki model. We compare the MGHalofit predictions at various redshifts (z ≤ 1) to the f(R) simulations and find that the relative error of the MGHalofit fitting formula of P(k) is no larger than 6% at k ≤ 1 h Mpc{sup –1} and 12% at k in (1, 10] h Mpc{sup –1}, respectively. Based on a sensitivity study of an ongoing and a future spectroscopic survey, we estimate the detectability of a signal of modified gravity described by the Hu-Sawicki model using the power spectrum up to quasi-nonlinear scales.

  5. A Validity Agenda for Growth Models: One Size Doesn't Fit All!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Patelis, Thanos

    2012-01-01

    This is a keynote presentation given at AERA on developing a validity agenda for growth models in a large scale (e.g., state) setting. The emphasis of this presentation was to indicate that growth models and the validity agenda designed to provide evidence in supporting the claims to be made need to be personalized to meet the local or…

  6. The fitting of radioactive decay data by covariance methods

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, D.L.; Osadebe, F.A.N.

    1994-04-01

    The fitting of radioactive decay data is examined when radiations from two or more processes are indistinguishable. The model is a nonlinear sum of exponentials which cannot be linearized by transformations. Simple and generalized least-squares procedures utilizing covariance matrices are applied. The validity of the midpoint approximation is demonstrated. Guidelines for acquiring adequate radioactive decay data are suggested. The relevance to activation cross section determination is discussed.

  7. Application of boundary-fitted coordinate (BFC) transformations to groundwater flow and transport modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, K.K.

    1992-01-01

    A numerical method is presented to simulate groundwater flow and transport using the Boundary-Fitted Coordinate (BFC) systems approach initially developed for aerodynamics. An irregularly-shaped physical domain is transformed to a simple computational domain with uniform grids. Governing equations defined in the physical domain are transformed into the computational domain, wherein all transformed equations are solved by the Finite Difference Method (FDM). This study developed three FORTRAN 77 computer programs: (1) BFCGW, which simulates groundwater flow and transport, (2) SEEPAGE, which simulates free-surface and seepage face, and (3) Q3D, which simulates multi-layered flow. A series of plotting programs using [open quotes]DISSPLA,[close quotes] an IBM FORTRAN graphics package, was also developed to plot grid lines, contour lines, and flow vectors in an irregularly-shaped physical domain with non-uniform grids. Each of the three programs was verified by solving an idealized problem for which the analytical solution was known and/or a realistic problem for which field measurements could be obtained. The computer program BFCGW was employed to simulate an idealized well flow in a triangular physical domain and actual groundwater flows in the area of West Lafayette, Indiana. The numerical solutions in both cases closely matched the analytical solutions and/or numerical simulations by other computer codes such as AQUA and MODFLOW. The program BFCGW performs rotation and stretching of local coordinates prior to BFC transformations to simulate heterogeneous and anisotropic groundwater flow. The rotation and stretching technique simplifies transformed governing equations of anisotropic groundwater flow. With the program BFCGW, the groundwater flow and the transport equations are solved sequentially to simulate solute concentration distributions.

  8. Comparative Study on the Selection Criteria for Fitting Flood Frequency Distribution Models with Emphasis on Upper-Tail Behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiaohong, C.

    2014-12-01

    Many probability distributions have been proposed for flood frequency analysis and several criteria have been used for selecting a best fitted distribution to an observed or generated data set by some random process. The upper tail of flood frequency distribution should be specifically concerned for flood control. However, different model selection criteria often result in different optimal distributions when focus on upper tail of flood frequency distribution. In this study, with emphasis on the upper-tail behavior, 5 distribution selection criteria including 2 hypothesis tests and 3 information-based criteria are evaluated in selecting the best fitted distribution from 8 widely used distributions (Pearson 3, Log-Pearson 3, two-parameter lognormal, three-parameter lognormal, Gumbel, Weibull, Generalized extreme value and Generalized logistic distributions) by using datasets from Thames River (UK), Wabash River (USA), Beijiang River and Huai River (China), which are all within latitude of 23.5-66.5 degrees north. The performance of the 5 selection criteria is verified by using a composite criterion focus on upper tail events defined in this study. This paper shows the approach for the optimal selection of suitable flood frequency distributions for different river basins. Results illustrate that (1) Different distributions are selected by using hypothesis tests and information-based criteria for each river. (2) The information-based criteria perform better than hypothesis tests in most cases when the focus is on the goodness of predictions of the extreme upper tail events. (3) In order to decide on a particular distribution to fit the high flow, it would be better to use the combination criteria, in which the information-based criteria can be used first to rank the models and the results are inspected by hypothesis testing methods. In addition, if the information-based criteria and hypothesis tests provide different results, the composite criterion will be taken for

  9. Effects of a Three-Tiered Intervention Model on Physical Activity and Fitness Levels of Elementary School Children.

    PubMed

    Dauenhauer, Brian; Keating, Xiaofen; Lambdin, Dolly

    2016-08-01

    Response to intervention (RtI) models are frequently used in schools to tailor academic instruction to the needs of students. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of using RtI to promote physical activity (PA) and fitness in one urban elementary school. Ninety-nine students in grades 2-5 participated in up to three tiers of intervention throughout the course of one school year. Tier one included 150 min/week of physical education (increased from 90 min/week the previous year) and coordinated efforts to improve school health. Tier two consisted of 30 min/week of small group instruction based on goal setting and social support. Tier three included an after-school program for parents and children focused on healthy living. PA, cardiovascular fitness, and body composition were assessed before and after the interventions using pedometers, a 20-m shuttle run, and height/weight measurements. From pre- to post-testing, PA remained relatively stable in tier one and increased by 2349 steps/day in tier two. Cardiovascular fitness increased in tiers one and two by 1.17 and 1.35 ml/kg/min, respectively. Although body mass index did not change, 17 of the 99 students improved their weight status over the course of the school year, resulting in an overall decline in the prevalence of overweight/obesity from 59.6 to 53.5 %. Preliminary results suggest that the RtI model can be an effective way to structure PA/health interventions in an elementary school setting. PMID:27059849

  10. One size does not fit all: Adapting mark-recapture and occupancy models for state uncertainty

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kendall, W.L.

    2009-01-01

    Multistate capture?recapture models continue to be employed with greater frequency to test hypotheses about metapopulation dynamics and life history, and more recently disease dynamics. In recent years efforts have begun to adjust these models for cases where there is uncertainty about an animal?s state upon capture. These efforts can be categorized into models that permit misclassification between two states to occur in either direction or one direction, where state is certain for a subset of individuals or is always uncertain, and where estimation is based on one sampling occasion per period of interest or multiple sampling occasions per period. State uncertainty also arises in modeling patch occupancy dynamics. I consider several case studies involving bird and marine mammal studies that illustrate how misclassified states can arise, and outline model structures for properly utilizing the data that are produced. In each case misclassification occurs in only one direction (thus there is a subset of individuals or patches where state is known with certainty), and there are multiple sampling occasions per period of interest. For the cases involving capture?recapture data I allude to a general model structure that could include each example as a special case. However, this collection of cases also illustrates how difficult it is to develop a model structure that can be directly useful for answering every ecological question of interest and account for every type of data from the field.

  11. Fitting Procedures for Novel Gene-by-Measured Environment Interaction Models in Behavior Genetic Designs

    PubMed Central

    Zheng, Hao; Rathouz, Paul J.

    2015-01-01

    For quantitative behavior genetic (e.g., twin) studies, Purcell proposed a novel model for testing gene-by-measured environment (GxM) interactions while accounting for gene-by-environment correlation. Rathouz et al. expanded this model into a broader class of non-linear biometric models for quantifying and testing such interactions. In this work, we propose a novel factorization of the likelihood for this class of models, and adopt numerical integration techniques to achieve model estimation, especially for those without close-form likelihood. The validity of our procedures is established through numerical simulation studies. The new procedures are illustrated in a twin study analysis of the moderating effect of birth weight on the genetic influences on childhood anxiety. A second example is given in an online appendix. Both the exant GxM models and the new non-linear models critically assume normality of all structural components, which implies continuous, but not normal, manifest response variables. PMID:25732055

  12. Advantages of estimating parameters of photosynthesis model by fitting A-Ci curves at multiple subsaturating light intensities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, W.; Gu, L.; Hoffman, F. M.

    2013-12-01

    The photosynthesis model of Farquhar, von Caemmerer & Berry (1980) is an important tool for predicting the response of plants to climate change. So far, the critical parameters required by the model have been obtained from the leaf-level measurements of gas exchange, namely the net assimilation of CO2 against intercellular CO2 concentration (A-Ci) curves, made at saturating light conditions. With such measurements, most points are likely in the Rubisco-limited state for which the model is structurally overparameterized (the model is also overparameterized in the TPU-limited state). In order to reliably estimate photosynthetic parameters, there must be sufficient number of points in the RuBP regeneration-limited state, which has no structural over-parameterization. To improve the accuracy of A-Ci data analysis, we investigate the potential of using multiple A-Ci curves at subsaturating light intensities to generate some important parameter estimates more accurately. Using subsaturating light intensities allow more RuBp regeneration-limited points to be obtained. In this study, simulated examples are used to demonstrate how this method can eliminate the errors of conventional A-Ci curve fitting methods. Some fitted parameters like the photocompensation point and day respiration impose a significant limitation on modeling leaf CO2 exchange. The multiple A-Ci curves fitting can also improve over the so-called Laisk (1977) method, which was shown by some recent publication to produce incorrect estimates of photocompensation point and day respiration. We also test the approach with actual measurements, along with suggested measurement conditions to constrain measured A-Ci points to maximize the occurrence of RuBP regeneration-limited photosynthesis. Finally, we use our measured gas exchange datasets to quantify the magnitude of resistance of chloroplast and cell wall-plasmalemma and explore the effect of variable mesophyll conductance. The variable mesophyll conductance

  13. Does the first chaotic inflation model in supergravity provide the best fit to the Planck data?

    SciTech Connect

    Linde, Andrei

    2015-02-23

    I describe the first model of chaotic inflation in supergravity, which was proposed by Goncharov and the present author in 1983. The inflaton potential of this model has a plateau-type behavior V{sub 0}(1−(8/3) e{sup −√6|ϕ|}) at large values of the inflaton field. This model predicts n{sub s}=1−(2/N)≈0.967 and r=(4/(3N{sup 2}))≈4×10{sup −4}, in good agreement with the Planck data. I propose a slight generalization of this model, which allows to describe not only inflation but also dark energy and supersymmetry breaking.

  14. SDSS-II: Determination of shape and color parameter coefficients for SALT-II fit model

    SciTech Connect

    Dojcsak, L.; Marriner, J.; /Fermilab

    2010-08-01

    In this study we look at the SALT-II model of Type IA supernova analysis, which determines the distance moduli based on the known absolute standard candle magnitude of the Type IA supernovae. We take a look at the determination of the shape and color parameter coefficients, {alpha} and {beta} respectively, in the SALT-II model with the intrinsic error that is determined from the data. Using the SNANA software package provided for the analysis of Type IA supernovae, we use a standard Monte Carlo simulation to generate data with known parameters to use as a tool for analyzing the trends in the model based on certain assumptions about the intrinsic error. In order to find the best standard candle model, we try to minimize the residuals on the Hubble diagram by calculating the correct shape and color parameter coefficients. We can estimate the magnitude of the intrinsic errors required to obtain results with {chi}{sup 2}/degree of freedom = 1. We can use the simulation to estimate the amount of color smearing as indicated by the data for our model. We find that the color smearing model works as a general estimate of the color smearing, and that we are able to use the RMS distribution in the variables as one method of estimating the correct intrinsic errors needed by the data to obtain the correct results for {alpha} and {beta}. We then apply the resultant intrinsic error matrix to the real data and show our results.

  15. Fitting a Turbulent Cloud Model to CO Observations of Starless Bok Globules

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hegmann, M.; Hengel, C.; Röllig, M.; Kegel, W. H.

    We present observations of five starless Bok globules in transitions of 12CO (J=2-1 and {J=3-2}), 13CO (J=2-1), and C18O (J=2-1) which have been obtained at the Heinrich-Hertz-Telescope. For an analysis of the data we use the model of Kegel et al. (see e.g. Piehler & Kegel 1995, A&A 297, 841; Hegmann & Kegel 2000, A&A 359, 405) which describes an isothermal sphere stabilized by turbulent and thermal pressure. This approach deals with the full NLTE radiative transfer problem and accounts for a turbulent velocity field with finite correlation length. By a comparison of observed and calculated line profiles we are able not only to determine the kinetic temperature, hydrogen density and CO coloumn density of the globules, but also to study the properties of the turbulent velocity field, i.e. the variance of its one-point-distribution and its correlation length. We consider our model to be an alternative tool for the evaluation of molecular lines emitted by molecular clouds. The model assumptions are certainly closer to reality than the assumptions behind the standard evaluation models, as for example the LVG model. Our current study shows that that the results obtained from our model can differ significantly from those obtained from a LVG analysis.

  16. Improving the Fit of a Land-Surface Model to Data Using its Adjoint

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raoult, N.; Jupp, T. E.; Cox, P. M.; Luke, C.

    2015-12-01

    Land-surface models (LSMs) are of growing importance in the world of climate prediction. They are crucial components of larger Earth system models that are aimed at understanding the effects of land surface processes on the global carbon cycle. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) is the land-surface model used by the UK Met Office. It has been automatically differentiated using commercial software from FastOpt, resulting in an analytical gradient, or 'adjoint', of the model. Using this adjoint, the adJULES parameter estimation system has been developed, to search for locally optimum parameter sets by calibrating against observations. adJULES presents an opportunity to confront JULES with many different observations, and make improvements to the model parameterisation. In the newest version of adJULES, multiple sites can be used in the calibration, to giving a generic set of parameters that can be generalised over plant functional types. We present an introduction to the adJULES system and its applications to data from a variety of flux tower sites. We show that calculation of the 2nd derivative of JULES allows us to produce posterior probability density functions of the parameters and how knowledge of parameter values is constrained by observations.

  17. Do telemonitoring projects of heart failure fit the Chronic Care Model?

    PubMed Central

    Willemse, Evi; Adriaenssens, Jef; Dilles, Tinne; Remmen, Roy

    2014-01-01

    This study describes the characteristics of extramural and transmural telemonitoring projects on chronic heart failure in Belgium. It describes to what extent these telemonitoring projects coincide with the Chronic Care Model of Wagner. Background The Chronic Care Model describes essential components for high-quality health care. Telemonitoring can be used to optimise home care for chronic heart failure. It provides a potential prospective to change the current care organisation. Methods This qualitative study describes seven non-invasive home-care telemonitoring projects in patients with heart failure in Belgium. A qualitative design, including interviews and literature review, was used to describe the correspondence of these home-care telemonitoring projects with the dimensions of the Chronic Care Model. Results The projects were situated in primary and secondary health care. Their primary goal was to reduce the number of readmissions for chronic heart failure. None of these projects succeeded in a final implementation of telemonitoring in home care after the pilot phase. Not all the projects were initiated to accomplish all of the dimensions of the Chronic Care Model. A central role for the patient was sparse. Conclusion Limited financial resources hampered continuation after the pilot phase. Cooperation and coordination in telemonitoring appears to be major barriers but are, within primary care as well as between the lines of care, important links in follow-up. This discrepancy can be prohibitive for deployment of good chronic care. Chronic Care Model is recommended as basis for future. PMID:25114664

  18. Heterogeneity in Genetic Diversity among Non-Coding Loci Fails to Fit Neutral Coalescent Models of Population History

    PubMed Central

    Peters, Jeffrey L.; Roberts, Trina E.; Winker, Kevin; McCracken, Kevin G.

    2012-01-01

    Inferring aspects of the population histories of species using coalescent analyses of non-coding nuclear DNA has grown in popularity. These inferences, such as divergence, gene flow, and changes in population size, assume that genetic data reflect simple population histories and neutral evolutionary processes. However, violating model assumptions can result in a poor fit between empirical data and the models. We sampled 22 nuclear intron sequences from at least 19 different chromosomes (a genomic transect) to test for deviations from selective neutrality in the gadwall (Anas strepera), a Holarctic duck. Nucleotide diversity among these loci varied by nearly two orders of magnitude (from 0.0004 to 0.029), and this heterogeneity could not be explained by differences in substitution rates alone. Using two different coalescent methods to infer models of population history and then simulating neutral genetic diversity under these models, we found that the observed among-locus heterogeneity in nucleotide diversity was significantly higher than expected for these simple models. Defining more complex models of population history demonstrated that a pre-divergence bottleneck was also unlikely to explain this heterogeneity. However, both selection and interspecific hybridization could account for the heterogeneity observed among loci. Regardless of the cause of the deviation, our results illustrate that violating key assumptions of coalescent models can mislead inferences of population history. PMID:22384117

  19. The β-Model Problem: The Incompatibility of X-Ray and Sunyaev-Zeldovich Effect Model Fitting for Galaxy Clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hallman, Eric J.; Burns, Jack O.; Motl, Patrick M.; Norman, Michael L.

    2007-08-01

    We have analyzed a large sample of numerically simulated clusters to demonstrate the adverse effects resulting from the use of X-ray-fitted β-model parameters with Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect (SZE) data. There is a fundamental incompatibility between β-model fits to X-ray surface brightness profiles and those done with SZE profiles. Since observational SZE radial profiles are in short supply, the X-ray parameters are often used in SZE analysis. We show that this leads to biased estimates of the integrated Compton y-parameter inside r500 calculated from clusters. We suggest a simple correction of the method, using a nonisothermal β-model modified by a universal temperature profile, which brings these calculated quantities into closer agreement with the true values.

  20. A modified GM-estimation for robust fitting of mixture regression models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Booppasiri, Slun; Srisodaphol, Wuttichai

    2015-02-01

    In the mixture regression models, the regression parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) via EM algorithm. Generally, maximum likelihood estimation is sensitive to outliers and heavy tailed error distribution. The robust method, M-estimation can handle outliers existing on dependent variable only for estimating regression coefficients in regression models. Moreover, GM-estimation can handle outliers existing on dependent variable and independent variables. In this study, the modified GM-estimations for estimating the regression coefficients in the mixture regression models are proposed. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed methods. The results show that the proposed modified GM-estimations approximate to MLE when there are no outliers and the error is normally distributed. Furthermore, our proposed methods are more efficient than the MLE, when there are leverage points.

  1. Analysis of stellar occultation data for planetary atmospheres. I - Model fitting, with application to Pluto

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elliot, J. L.; Young, L. A.

    1992-01-01

    Consideration is given to an analytic model for a stellar-occultation light curve developed for a small, spherically symmetric planetary atmosphere that includes thermal and molecular weight gradients in a region that overlies an extinction layer. The model incorporates two equivalent sets of parameters. One set specifies the occultation light curve in terms of signal levels, times, and time intervals. The other set specifies physical parameters of the planetary atmosphere. Equations are given for the transforming between the sets of parameters, including their errors and correlation coefficients. Detailed numerical calculations are presented for a benchmark case. The results obtained are consistent with the isothermal prediction of the 'methane-thermostat' model of Pluto's atmosphere.

  2. A re-formulation of generalized linear mixed models to fit family data in genetic association studies

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Tao; He, Peng; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Wang, Xujing; Ghosh, Soumitra; Laud, Purushottam

    2015-01-01

    The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is a useful tool for modeling genetic correlation among family data in genetic association studies. However, when dealing with families of varied sizes and diverse genetic relatedness, the GLMM has a special correlation structure which often makes it difficult to be specified using standard statistical software. In this study, we propose a Cholesky decomposition based re-formulation of the GLMM so that the re-formulated GLMM can be specified conveniently via “proc nlmixed” and “proc glimmix” in SAS, or OpenBUGS via R package BRugs. Performances of these procedures in fitting the re-formulated GLMM are examined through simulation studies. We also apply this re-formulated GLMM to analyze a real data set from Type 1 Diabetes Genetics Consortium (T1DGC). PMID:25873936

  3. Testing Goodness-of-Fit for the Proportional Hazards Model based on Nested Case-Control Data

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Wenbin; Liu, Mengling; Chen, Yi-Hau

    2014-01-01

    Summary Nested case-control sampling is a popular design for large epidemiological cohort studies due to its cost effectiveness. A number of methods have been developed for the estimation of the proportional hazards model with nested case-control data; however, the evaluation of modeling assumption is less attended. In this paper, we propose a class of goodness-of-fit test statistics for testing the proportional hazards assumption based on nested case-control data. The test statistics are constructed based on asymptotically mean-zero processes derived from Samuelsen’s maximum pseudo-likelihood estimation method. In addition, we develop an innovative resampling scheme to approximate the asymptotic distribution of the test statistics while accounting for the dependent sampling scheme of nested case-control design. Numerical studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of our proposed approach, and an application to the Wilms’ Tumor Study is given to illustrate the methodology. PMID:25298193

  4. Testing goodness-of-fit for the proportional hazards model based on nested case-control data.

    PubMed

    Lu, Wenbin; Liu, Mengling; Chen, Yi-Hau

    2014-12-01

    Nested case-control sampling is a popular design for large epidemiological cohort studies due to its cost effectiveness. A number of methods have been developed for the estimation of the proportional hazards model with nested case-control data; however, the evaluation of modeling assumption is less attended. In this article, we propose a class of goodness-of-fit test statistics for testing the proportional hazards assumption based on nested case-control data. The test statistics are constructed based on asymptotically mean-zero processes derived from Samuelsen's maximum pseudo-likelihood estimation method. In addition, we develop an innovative resampling scheme to approximate the asymptotic distribution of the test statistics while accounting for the dependent sampling scheme of nested case-control design. Numerical studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of our proposed approach, and an application to the Wilms' Tumor Study is given to illustrate the methodology. PMID:25298193

  5. Understanding the Listening Process: Rethinking the "One Size Fits All" Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wolvin, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Robert Bostrom's seminal contributions to listening theory and research represent an impressive legacy and provide listening scholars with important perspectives on the complexities of listening cognition and behavior. Bostrom's work provides a solid foundation on which to build models that more realistically explain how listeners function…

  6. Comparing the Relative Fit of Categorical and Dimensional Latent Variable Models Using Consistency Tests

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ruscio, John; Walters, Glenn D.; Marcus, David K.; Kaczetow, Walter

    2010-01-01

    A number of recent studies have used Meehl's (1995) taxometric method to determine empirically whether one should model assessment-related constructs as categories or dimensions. The taxometric method includes multiple data-analytic procedures designed to check the consistency of results. The goal is to differentiate between strong evidence of…

  7. A Structural Model-Based Optimal Person-Fit Procedure for Identifying Faking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ferrando, Pere J.; Anguiano-Carrasco, Cristina

    2013-01-01

    This article proposes a two-stage procedure aimed at identifying faking in personality tests. The procedure, which can be considered as an extension and refinement of previous item response theory (IRT)-based proposals, combines the information provided by a structural equation model (SEM) in the first stage with that provided by an IRT-based…

  8. Using the SPSS Mixed Procedure to Fit Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Multilevel Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peugh, James L.; Enders, Craig K.

    2005-01-01

    Beginning with Version 11, SPSS implemented the MIXED procedure, which is capable of performing many common hierarchical linear model analyses. The purpose of this article was to provide a tutorial for performing cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses using this popular software platform. In doing so, the authors borrowed heavily from Singer's…

  9. Where Does Creativity Fit into a Productivist Industrial Model of Knowledge Production?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ghassib, Hisham B.

    2010-01-01

    The basic premise of this paper is the fact that science has become a major industry: the knowledge industry. The paper throws some light on the reasons for the transformation of science from a limited, constrained and marginal craft into a major industry. It, then, presents a productivist industrial model of knowledge production, which shows its…

  10. Assessing Fit of Item Response Models Using the Information Matrix Test

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ranger, Jochen; Kuhn, Jorg-Tobias

    2012-01-01

    The information matrix can equivalently be determined via the expectation of the Hessian matrix or the expectation of the outer product of the score vector. The identity of these two matrices, however, is only valid in case of a correctly specified model. Therefore, differences between the two versions of the observed information matrix indicate…

  11. Fitting the Mixed Rasch Model to a Reading Comprehension Test: Identifying Reader Types

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baghaei, Purya; Carstensen, Claus H.

    2013-01-01

    Standard unidimensional Rasch models assume that persons with the same ability parameters are comparable. That is, the same interpretation applies to persons with identical ability estimates as regards the underlying mental processes triggered by the test. However, research in cognitive psychology shows that persons at the same trait level may…

  12. Predicting VO2peak from Submaximal- and Peak Exercise Models: The HUNT 3 Fitness Study, Norway

    PubMed Central

    Loe, Henrik; Nes, Bjarne M.; Wisløff, Ulrik

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Peak oxygen uptake (VO2peak) is seldom assessed in health care settings although being inversely linked to cardiovascular risk and all-cause mortality. The aim of this study was to develop VO2peak prediction models for men and women based on directly measured VO2peak from a large healthy population Methods VO2peak prediction models based on submaximal- and peak performance treadmill work were derived from multiple regression analysis. 4637 healthy men and women aged 20–90 years were included. Data splitting was used to generate validation and cross-validation samples. Results The accuracy for the peak performance models were 10.5% (SEE = 4.63 mL⋅kg-1⋅min-1) and 11.5% (SEE = 4.11 mL⋅kg-1⋅min-1) for men and women, respectively, with 75% and 72% of the variance explained. For the submaximal performance models accuracy were 14.1% (SEE = 6.24 mL⋅kg-1⋅min-1) and 14.4% (SEE = 5.17 mL⋅kg-1⋅min-1) for men and women, respectively, with 55% and 56% of the variance explained. The validation and cross-validation samples displayed SEE and variance explained in agreement with the total sample. Cross-classification between measured and predicted VO2peak accurately classified 91% of the participants within the correct or nearest quintile of measured VO2peak. Conclusion Judicious use of the exercise prediction models presented in this study offers valuable information in providing a fairly accurate assessment of VO2peak, which may be beneficial for risk stratification in health care settings. PMID:26794677

  13. ON THE ROBUSTNESS OF z = 0-1 GALAXY SIZE MEASUREMENTS THROUGH MODEL AND NON-PARAMETRIC FITS

    SciTech Connect

    Mosleh, Moein; Franx, Marijn; Williams, Rik J.

    2013-11-10

    We present the size-stellar mass relations of nearby (z = 0.01-0.02) Sloan Digital Sky Survey galaxies, for samples selected by color, morphology, Sérsic index n, and specific star formation rate. Several commonly employed size measurement techniques are used, including single Sérsic fits, two-component Sérsic models, and a non-parametric method. Through simple simulations, we show that the non-parametric and two-component Sérsic methods provide the most robust effective radius measurements, while those based on single Sérsic profiles are often overestimates, especially for massive red/early-type galaxies. Using our robust sizes, we show for all sub-samples that the mass-size relations are shallow at low stellar masses and steepen above ∼3-4 × 10{sup 10} M{sub ☉}. The mass-size relations for galaxies classified as late-type, low-n, and star-forming are consistent with each other, while blue galaxies follow a somewhat steeper relation. The mass-size relations of early-type, high-n, red, and quiescent galaxies all agree with each other but are somewhat steeper at the high-mass end than previous results. To test potential systematics at high redshift, we artificially redshifted our sample (including surface brightness dimming and degraded resolution) to z = 1 and re-fit the galaxies using single Sérsic profiles. The sizes of these galaxies before and after redshifting are consistent and we conclude that systematic effects in sizes and the size-mass relation at z ∼ 1 are negligible. Interestingly, since the poorer physical resolution at high redshift washes out bright galaxy substructures, single Sérsic fitting appears to provide more reliable and unbiased effective radius measurements at high z than for nearby, well-resolved galaxies.

  14. Combined logarithmic and exponential function model for fitting postseismic GNSS time series after 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tobita, Mikio

    2016-03-01

    The time series of a postseismic deformation is commonly fitted by a logarithmic or exponential decay function. However, the high-quality postseismic Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) time series of the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake indicates that a single decay function cannot be used to represent the postseismic behaviour. We therefore combined the logarithmic (log) and exponential (exp) decay functions and developed methods for obtaining global solutions using nonlinear least squares calculations for such complex functions. Our models significantly improved the fitting performance of the postseismic time series and the prediction performance of the evolution of postseismic deformation. The solutions obtained by the proposed models and methods enabled distinction between the contributions of the log and exp functions, and explanation of characteristic phenomena such as the subsidence that occurs immediately after an earthquake is reversed to an uplift. The analysis of the solutions may suggest that there has been a continuous increase in the contribution of viscoelastic relaxation to postseismic deformation in eastern Japan, whereas the contribution of afterslip has rapidly decreased. The short-term prediction performance and the universal applicability of the proposed models to the Tohoku-Oki earthquake have contributed to the detection of a slow-slip event in the Tokai region. Rather than the existence of a unique single relaxation time for each surface site, our results suggest a unique single relaxation time for each postseismic deformation mechanism at a given subsurface location. Although the predictions were highly dependent on the assigned steady velocities and the long-term relaxation time constants, they indicate that the coseismic subsidence of the Yamoto station in Miyagi prefecture will recover around the year 2020. The estimated relaxation time constants of the present models appeared to be uniform throughout eastern Japan.

  15. Solution focused nursing: a fitting model for mental health nurses working in a public health paradigm.

    PubMed

    McAllister, Margaret

    2010-01-01

    The Australian Federal Government health agenda is advocating an extension of public health principles across all levels of the health sector. Since mental health nurses have long been proponents of public health and health promoting behaviours, an opportunity exists for this specialty of nursing to extend their influence and contribution within health. Solution focused nursing (SFN), a model that emerged from mental health practice, offers a framework to assist mental health nurses and leaders to more clearly practise public health principles within nursing and articulate that practice - for it is in the articulation of practice that nurses and nursing is made visible and valued. This paper aims to expand on and reiterate the SFN model, showing how it connects to public health principles and develops the mental health nurse's role - particularly in those clinical areas that require more than medical management and illness stabilization. PMID:20509799

  16. Properties of and Algorithms for Fitting Three-Way Component Models with Offset Terms

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kiers, Henk A. L.

    2006-01-01

    Prior to a three-way component analysis of a three-way data set, it is customary to preprocess the data by centering and/or rescaling them. Harshman and Lundy (1984) considered that three-way data actually consist of a three-way model part, which in fact pertains to ratio scale measurements, as well as additive "offset" terms that turn the ratio…

  17. The Candida albicans Pho4 Transcription Factor Mediates Susceptibility to Stress and Influences Fitness in a Mouse Commensalism Model

    PubMed Central

    Urrialde, Verónica; Prieto, Daniel; Pla, Jesús; Alonso-Monge, Rebeca

    2016-01-01

    The Pho4 transcription factor is required for growth under low environmental phosphate concentrations in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. A characterization of Candida albicans pho4 mutants revealed that these cells are more susceptible to both osmotic and oxidative stress and that this effect is diminished in the presence of 5% CO2 or anaerobiosis, reflecting the relevance of oxygen metabolism in the Pho4-mediated response. A pho4 mutant was as virulent as wild type strain when assayed in the Galleria mellonella infection model and was even more resistant to murine macrophages in ex vivo killing assays. The lack of Pho4 neither impairs the ability to colonize the murine gut nor alters the localization in the gastrointestinal tract. However, we found that Pho4 influenced the colonization of C. albicans in the mouse gut in competition assays; pho4 mutants were unable to attain high colonization levels when inoculated simultaneously with an isogenic wild type strain. Moreover, pho4 mutants displayed a reduced adherence to the intestinal mucosa in a competitive ex vivo assays with wild type cells. In vitro competitive assays also revealed defects in fitness for this mutant compared to the wild type strain. Thus, Pho4, a transcription factor involved in phosphate metabolism, is required for adaptation to stress and fitness in C. albicans. PMID:27458452

  18. Assessment of a fictitious domain method for patient-specific biomechanical modelling of press-fit orthopaedic implantation.

    PubMed

    Kallivokas, L F; Na, S-W; Ghattas, O; Jaramaz, B

    2012-01-01

    In this article, we discuss an application of a fictitious domain method to the numerical simulation of the mechanical process induced by press-fitting cementless femoral implants in total hip replacement surgeries. Here, the primary goal is to demonstrate the feasibility of the method and its advantages over competing numerical methods for a wide range of applications for which the primary input originates from computed tomography-, magnetic resonance imaging- or other regular-grid medical imaging data. For this class of problems, the fictitious domain method is a natural choice, because it avoids the segmentation, surface reconstruction and meshing phases required by unstructured geometry-conforming simulation methods. We consider the implantation of a press-fit femoral artificial prosthesis as a prototype problem for sketching the application path of the methodology. Of concern is the assessment of the robustness and speed of the methodology, for both factors are critical if one were to consider patient-specific modelling. To this end, we report numerical results that exhibit optimal convergence rates and thus shed a favourable light on the approach. PMID:21424950

  19. A fully Bayesian method for jointly fitting instrumental calibration and X-ray spectral models

    SciTech Connect

    Xu, Jin; Yu, Yaming; Van Dyk, David A.; Kashyap, Vinay L.; Siemiginowska, Aneta; Drake, Jeremy; Ratzlaff, Pete; Connors, Alanna; Meng, Xiao-Li E-mail: yamingy@ics.uci.edu E-mail: vkashyap@cfa.harvard.edu E-mail: jdrake@cfa.harvard.edu E-mail: meng@stat.harvard.edu

    2014-10-20

    Owing to a lack of robust principled methods, systematic instrumental uncertainties have generally been ignored in astrophysical data analysis despite wide recognition of the importance of including them. Ignoring calibration uncertainty can cause bias in the estimation of source model parameters and can lead to underestimation of the variance of these estimates. We previously introduced a pragmatic Bayesian method to address this problem. The method is 'pragmatic' in that it introduced an ad hoc technique that simplified computation by neglecting the potential information in the data for narrowing the uncertainty for the calibration product. Following that work, we use a principal component analysis to efficiently represent the uncertainty of the effective area of an X-ray (or γ-ray) telescope. Here, however, we leverage this representation to enable a principled, fully Bayesian method that coherently accounts for the calibration uncertainty in high-energy spectral analysis. In this setting, the method is compared with standard analysis techniques and the pragmatic Bayesian method. The advantage of the fully Bayesian method is that it allows the data to provide information not only for estimation of the source parameters but also for the calibration product—here the effective area, conditional on the adopted spectral model. In this way, it can yield more accurate and efficient estimates of the source parameters along with valid estimates of their uncertainty. Provided that the source spectrum can be accurately described by a parameterized model, this method allows rigorous inference about the effective area by quantifying which possible curves are most consistent with the data.

  20. How Fitness Reduced, Antimicrobial Resistant Bacteria Survive and Spread: A Multiple Pig - Multiple Bacterial Strain Model

    PubMed Central

    Græsbøll, Kaare; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose; Toft, Nils; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo

    2014-01-01

    More than 30% of E. coli strains sampled from pig farms in Denmark over the last five years were resistant to the commonly used antimicrobial tetracycline. This raises a number of questions: How is this high level sustained if resistant bacteria have reduced growth rates? Given that there are multiple susceptible and resistant bacterial strains in the pig intestines, how can we describe their coexistence? To what extent does the composition of these multiple strains in individual pigs influence the total bacterial population of the pig pen? What happens to a complex population when antimicrobials are used? To investigate these questions, we created a model where multiple strains of bacteria coexist in the intestines of pigs sharing a pen, and explored the parameter limits of a stable system; both with and without an antimicrobial treatment. The approach taken is a deterministic bacterial population model with stochastic elements of bacterial distributions and transmission. The rates that govern the model are process-oriented to represent growth, excretion, and uptake from environment, independent of herd and meta-population structures. Furthermore, an entry barrier and elimination process for the individual strains in each pig were implemented. We demonstrate how competitive growth between multiple bacterial strains in individual pigs, and the transmission between pigs in a pen allow for strains of antimicrobial resistant bacteria to persist in a pig population to different extents, and how quickly they can become dominant if antimicrobial treatment is initiated. The level of spread depends in a non-linear way of the parameters that govern excretion and uptake. Furthermore, the sampling of initial distributions of strains and stochastic transmission events give rise to large variation in how homogenous and how resistant the bacterial population becomes. Most important: resistant bacteria are demonstrated to survive with a disadvantage in growth rate of well over 10

  1. Experimentally fitted biodynamic models for pedestrian-structure interaction in walking situations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toso, Marcelo André; Gomes, Herbert Martins; da Silva, Felipe Tavares; Pimentel, Roberto Leal

    2016-05-01

    The interaction between moving humans and structures usually occurs in slender structures in which the level of vibration is potentially high. Furthermore, there is the addition of mass to the structural system due to the presence of people and an increase in damping due to the human body´s ability to absorb vibrational energy. In this paper, a test campaign is presented to obtain parameters for a single degree of freedom (SDOF) biodynamic model that represents the action of a walking pedestrian in the vertical direction. The parameters of this model are the mass (m), damping (c) and stiffness (k). The measurements were performed on a force platform, and the inputs were the spectral acceleration amplitudes of the first three harmonics at the waist level of the test subjects and the corresponding amplitudes of the first three harmonics of the vertical ground reaction force. This leads to a system of nonlinear equations that is solved using a gradient-based optimization algorithm. A set of individuals took part in the tests to ensure inter-subject variability, and, regression expressions and an artificial neural network (ANN) were used to relate the biodynamic parameters to the pacing rate and the body mass of the pedestrians. The results showed some scatter in damping and stiffness that could not be precisely correlated with the masses and pacing rates of the subjects. The use of the ANN resulted in significant improvements in the parameter expressions with a low uncertainty. Finally, the measured vertical accelerations on a prototype footbridge show the adequacy of the numerical model for the representation of the effects of walking pedestrians on a structure. The results are consistent for many crowd densities.

  2. Wind Magnetic Clouds for 2010-2012: Model Parameter Fittings, Associated Shock Waves, and Comparisons to Earlier Periods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lepping, R. P.; Wu, C.-C.; Berdichevsky, D. B.; Szabo, A.

    2015-01-01

    We fitted the parameters of magnetic clouds (MCs) as identified in the Wind spacecraft data from early 2010 to the end of 2012 using the model of Lepping, Jones, and Burlaga (J. Geophys. Res. 95, 1195, 1990). The interval contains 48 MCs and 39 magnetic cloud-like (MCL) events. This work is a continuation of MC model fittings of the earlier Wind sets, including those in a recent publication, which covers 2007 to 2009. This period (2010 - 2012) mainly covers the maximum portion of Solar Cycle 24. Between the previous and current interval, we document 5.7 years of MCs observations. For this interval, the occurrence frequency of MCs markedly increased in the last third of the time. In addition, over approximately the last six years, the MC type (i.e. the profile of the magnetic-field direction within an MC, such as North-to-South, South-to-North, all South) dramatically evolved to mainly North-to-South types when compared to earlier years. Furthermore, this evolution of MC type is consistent with global solar magnetic-field changes predicted by Bothmer and Rust (Coronal Mass Ejections, 139, 1997). Model fit parameters for the MCs are listed for 2010 - 2012. For the 5.7 year interval, the observed MCs are found to be slower, weaker in estimated axial magnetic-field intensity, and shorter in duration than those of the earlier 12.3 years, yielding much lower axial magnetic-field fluxes. For about the first half of this 5.7 year period, i.e. up to the end of 2009, there were very few associated MC-driven shock waves (distinctly fewer than the long-term average of about 50 % of MCs). But since 2010, such driven shocks have increased markedly, reflecting similar statistics as the long-term averages. We estimate that 56 % of the total observed MCs have upstream shocks when the full interval of 1995 - 2012 is considered. However, only 28 % of the total number of MCLs have driven shocks over the same period. Some interplanetary shocks during the 2010 - 2012 interval are seen

  3. Assessing the fit of biotic ligand model validation data in a risk management decision context.

    PubMed

    McLaughlin, Douglas B

    2015-10-01

    Biotic ligand models (BLMs) have advanced the ability to predict the concentrations of metals in surface waters likely to harm aquatic organisms. BLMs have been developed for several metals including Cu, Zn, Cd, and Ag. Additionally, the US Environmental Protection Agency has published guidance on the use of a BLM to develop water quality criteria for Cu. To validate the predictive performance of many BLMs, model predictions based on test water quality have been compared with corresponding laboratory toxicity measurements. Validation results are typically described in the published literature in terms of the proportion of predicted effect concentrations that fall within a factor of 2 of measured values. In this article, an alternative is presented using a receiver operating characteristics approach and regression prediction limit analyses, quantifying the probabilities of true and false predictions of excess toxicity risk based on toxic unit calculations and a risk management threshold of 1. The approaches are applied to a published Zn BLM and 3 simulated data sets that reflect attributes of other published BLM validation data. The overall accuracy of the unified Zn BLM is estimated to be 80% to 90%, and analyses of simulated data suggest a similar level of accuracy for other published BLMs. Further application of these validation methods to other BLMs may provide more complete and transparent information on their possible predictive value when used in the management of risks due to aqueous metals. PMID:25779880

  4. Statistical Evaluation of Fitting Accuracy of Global and Local Digital Elevation Models in Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alidoost, F.; Samadzadegan, F.

    2013-09-01

    Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) are one of the most important data for various applications such as hydrological studies, topography mapping and ortho image generation. There are well-known DEMs of the whole world that represent the terrain's surface at variable resolution and they are also freely available for 99% of the globe. However, it is necessary to assess the quality of the global DEMs for the regional scale applications.These models are evaluated by differencing with other reference DEMs or ground control points (GCPs) in order to estimate the quality and accuracy parameters over different land cover types. In this paper, a comparison of ASTER GDEM ver2, SRTM DEM with more than 800 reference GCPs and also with a local elevation model over the area of Iran is presented. This study investigates DEM's characteristics such as systematic error (bias), vertical accuracy and outliers for DEMs using both the usual (Mean error, Root Mean Square Error, Standard Deviation) and the robust (Median, Normalized Median Absolute Deviation, Sample Quantiles) descriptors. Also, the visual assessment tools are used to illustrate the quality of DEMs, such as normalized histograms and Q-Q plots. The results of the study confirmed that there is a negative elevation bias of approximately 5 meters of GDEM ver2. The measured RMSE and NMAD for elevation differences of GDEM-GCPs are 7.1 m and 3.2 m, respectively, while these values for SRTM and GCPs are 9.0 m and 4.4 m. On the other hand, in comparison with the local DEM, GDEM ver2 exhibits the RMSE of about 6.7 m, a little higher than the RMSE of SRTM (5.1 m).The results of height difference classification and other statistical analysis of GDEM ver2-local DEM and SRTM-local DEM reveal that SRTM is slightly more accurate than GDEM ver2. Accordingly, SRTM has no noticeable bias and shift from Local DEM and they have more consistency to each other, while GDEM ver2 has always a negative bias.

  5. Fitting three-dimensional models to stereo images using a genetic algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagao, Tomoharu; Agui, Takeshi; Nagahashi, Hiroshi

    1995-04-01

    A method to determine positions and rotational angles of 3D objects in stereo images is proposed in this paper. First, range data of edge points of a left image are calculated by a stereo matching method. Next, a three dimensional model is rotated, translated and projected to a 2D plane, and the edges of the projected image are compared with those of the left image. The space transformation parameters which give the maximum matching ratio are searched by a Genetic Algorithm;GA. In the searching process of the proposed method, a set of space transformation parameters is regarded as chromosome of an individual, and a randomly generated population is evolved according to GA rules. Principle of the method and several experimental results are described.

  6. The conceptual basis of mathematics in cardiology IV: statistics and model fitting.

    PubMed

    Bates, Jason H T; Sobel, Burton E

    2003-06-01

    This is the fourth in a series of four articles developed for the readers of Coronary Artery Disease. Without language ideas cannot be articulated. What may not be so immediately obvious is that they cannot be formulated either. One of the essential languages of cardiology is mathematics. Unfortunately, medical education does not emphasize, and in fact, often neglects empowering physicians to think mathematically. Reference to statistics, conditional probability, multicompartmental modeling, algebra, calculus and transforms is common but often without provision of genuine conceptual understanding. At the University of Vermont College of Medicine, Professor Bates developed a course designed to address these deficiencies. The course covered mathematical principles pertinent to clinical cardiovascular and pulmonary medicine and research. It focused on fundamental concepts to facilitate formulation and grasp of ideas. This series of four articles was developed to make the material available for a wider audience. The articles will be published sequentially in Coronary Artery Disease. Beginning with fundamental axioms and basic algebraic manipulations they address algebra, function and graph theory, real and complex numbers, calculus and differential equations, mathematical modeling, linear system theory and integral transforms and statistical theory. The principles and concepts they address provide the foundation needed for in-depth study of any of these topics. Perhaps of even more importance, they should empower cardiologists and cardiovascular researchers to utilize the language of mathematics in assessing the phenomena of immediate pertinence to diagnosis, pathophysiology and therapeutics. The presentations are interposed with queries (by Coronary Artery Disease abbreviated as CAD) simulating the nature of interactions that occurred during the course itself. Each article concludes with one or more examples illustrating application of the concepts covered to

  7. A MULTIVARIATE FIT LUMINOSITY FUNCTION AND WORLD MODEL FOR LONG GAMMA-RAY BURSTS

    SciTech Connect

    Shahmoradi, Amir

    2013-04-01

    It is proposed that the luminosity function, the rest-frame spectral correlations, and distributions of cosmological long-duration (Type-II) gamma-ray bursts (LGRBs) may be very well described as a multivariate log-normal distribution. This result is based on careful selection, analysis, and modeling of LGRBs' temporal and spectral variables in the largest catalog of GRBs available to date: 2130 BATSE GRBs, while taking into account the detection threshold and possible selection effects. Constraints on the joint rest-frame distribution of the isotropic peak luminosity (L{sub iso}), total isotropic emission (E{sub iso}), the time-integrated spectral peak energy (E{sub p,z}), and duration (T{sub 90,z}) of LGRBs are derived. The presented analysis provides evidence for a relatively large fraction of LGRBs that have been missed by the BATSE detector with E{sub iso} extending down to {approx}10{sup 49} erg and observed spectral peak energies (E{sub p} ) as low as {approx}5 keV. LGRBs with rest-frame duration T{sub 90,z} {approx}< 1 s or observer-frame duration T{sub 90} {approx}< 2 s appear to be rare events ({approx}< 0.1% chance of occurrence). The model predicts a fairly strong but highly significant correlation ({rho} = 0.58 {+-} 0.04) between E{sub iso} and E{sub p,z} of LGRBs. Also predicted are strong correlations of L{sub iso} and E{sub iso} with T{sub 90,z} and moderate correlation between L{sub iso} and E{sub p,z}. The strength and significance of the correlations found encourage the search for underlying mechanisms, though undermine their capabilities as probes of dark energy's equation of state at high redshifts. The presented analysis favors-but does not necessitate-a cosmic rate for BATSE LGRBs tracing metallicity evolution consistent with a cutoff Z/Z{sub Sun} {approx} 0.2-0.5, assuming no luminosity-redshift evolution.

  8. Simultaneous estimation of plasma parameters from spectroscopic data of neutral helium using least square fitting of CR-model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jain, Jalaj; Prakash, Ram; Vyas, Gheesa Lal; Pal, Udit Narayan; Chowdhuri, Malay Bikas; Manchanda, Ranjana; Halder, Nilanjan; Choyal, Yaduvendra

    2015-12-01

    In the present work an effort has been made to estimate the plasma parameters simultaneously like—electron density, electron temperature, ground state atom density, ground state ion density and metastable state density from the observed visible spectra of penning plasma discharge (PPD) source using least square fitting. The analysis is performed for the prominently observed neutral helium lines. The atomic data and analysis structure (ADAS) database is used to provide the required collisional-radiative (CR) photon emissivity coefficients (PECs) values under the optical thin plasma condition in the analysis. With this condition the estimated plasma temperature from the PPD is found rather high. It is seen that the inclusion of opacity in the observed spectral lines through PECs and addition of diffusion of neutrals and metastable state species in the CR-model code analysis improves the electron temperature estimation in the simultaneous measurement.

  9. A Comparison of Two-Stage Approaches for Fitting Nonlinear Ordinary Differential Equation Models with Mixed Effects.

    PubMed

    Chow, Sy-Miin; Bendezú, Jason J; Cole, Pamela M; Ram, Nilam

    2016-01-01

    Several approaches exist for estimating the derivatives of observed data for model exploration purposes, including functional data analysis (FDA; Ramsay & Silverman, 2005 ), generalized local linear approximation (GLLA; Boker, Deboeck, Edler, & Peel, 2010 ), and generalized orthogonal local derivative approximation (GOLD; Deboeck, 2010 ). These derivative estimation procedures can be used in a two-stage process to fit mixed effects ordinary differential equation (ODE) models. While the performance and utility of these routines for estimating linear ODEs have been established, they have not yet been evaluated in the context of nonlinear ODEs with mixed effects. We compared properties of the GLLA and GOLD to an FDA-based two-stage approach denoted herein as functional ordinary differential equation with mixed effects (FODEmixed) in a Monte Carlo (MC) study using a nonlinear coupled oscillators model with mixed effects. Simulation results showed that overall, the FODEmixed outperformed both the GLLA and GOLD across all the embedding dimensions considered, but a novel use of a fourth-order GLLA approach combined with very high embedding dimensions yielded estimation results that almost paralleled those from the FODEmixed. We discuss the strengths and limitations of each approach and demonstrate how output from each stage of FODEmixed may be used to inform empirical modeling of young children's self-regulation. PMID:27391255

  10. Tennis Elbow Diagnosis Using Equivalent Uniform Voltage to Fit the Logistic and the Probit Diseased Probability Models

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Tsair-Fwu; Lin, Wei-Chun; Wang, Hung-Yu; Lin, Shu-Yuan; Wu, Li-Fu; Guo, Shih-Sian; Huang, Hsiang-Jui; Ting, Hui-Min; Chao, Pei-Ju

    2015-01-01

    To develop the logistic and the probit models to analyse electromyographic (EMG) equivalent uniform voltage- (EUV-) response for the tenderness of tennis elbow. In total, 78 hands from 39 subjects were enrolled. In this study, surface EMG (sEMG) signal is obtained by an innovative device with electrodes over forearm region. The analytical endpoint was defined as Visual Analog Score (VAS) 3+ tenderness of tennis elbow. The logistic and the probit diseased probability (DP) models were established for the VAS score and EMG absolute voltage-time histograms (AVTH). TV50 is the threshold equivalent uniform voltage predicting a 50% risk of disease. Twenty-one out of 78 samples (27%) developed VAS 3+ tenderness of tennis elbow reported by the subject and confirmed by the physician. The fitted DP parameters were TV50 = 153.0 mV (CI: 136.3–169.7 mV), γ50 = 0.84 (CI: 0.78–0.90) and TV50 = 155.6 mV (CI: 138.9–172.4 mV), m = 0.54 (CI: 0.49–0.59) for logistic and probit models, respectively. When the EUV ≥ 153 mV, the DP of the patient is greater than 50% and vice versa. The logistic and the probit models are valuable tools to predict the DP of VAS 3+ tenderness of tennis elbow. PMID:26380281

  11. Method for Slater-Type Density Fitting for Intermolecular Electrostatic Interactions with Charge Overlap. I. The Model.

    PubMed

    Öhrn, Anders; Hermida-Ramon, Jose M; Karlström, Gunnar

    2016-05-10

    The effects of charge overlap, or charge penetration, are neglected in most force fields and interaction terms in QM/MM methods. The effects are however significant at intermolecular distances near the van der Waals minimum. In the present study, we propose a method to evaluate the intermolecular Coloumb interaction using Slater-type functions, thus explicitly modeling the charge overlap. The computational cost of the method is low, which allows it to be used in large systems with most force fields as well as in QM/MM schemes. The charge distribution is modeled as a distributed multipole expansion up to quadrupole and Slater-type functions of angular momentum up to L = 1. The exponents of the Slater-type functions are obtained using a divide-and-conquer method to avoid the curse of dimensionality that otherwise is present for large nonlinear optimizations. A Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is applied in the fitting process. A set of parameters is obtained for each molecule, and the process is fully automated. Calculations have been performed in the carbon monoxide and the water dimers to illustrate the model. Results show a very good accuracy of the model with relative errors in the electrostatic potential lower than 3% over all reasonable separations. At very short distances where the charge overlaps is the most significant, errors are lower than 8% and lower than 3.5% at distances near the van der Waals minimum. PMID:27015000

  12. Differential interferometry of QSO broad-line regions - I. Improving the reverberation mapping model fits and black hole mass estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rakshit, Suvendu; Petrov, Romain G.; Meilland, Anthony; Hönig, Sebastian F.

    2015-03-01

    Reverberation mapping (RM) estimates the size and kinematics of broad-line regions (BLR) in quasars and type I AGNs. It yields size-luminosity relation to make QSOs standard cosmological candles, and mass-luminosity relation to study the evolution of black holes and galaxies. The accuracy of these relations is limited by the unknown geometry of the BLR clouds distribution and velocities. We analyse the independent BLR structure constraints given by super-resolving differential interferometry. We developed a three-dimensional BLR model to compute all differential interferometry and RM signals. We extrapolate realistic noises from our successful observations of the QSO 3C 273 with AMBER on the VLTI. These signals and noises quantify the differential interferometry capacity to discriminate and measure BLR parameters including angular size, thickness, spatial distribution of clouds, local-to-global and radial-to-rotation velocity ratios, and finally central black hole mass and BLR distance. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo model-fit, of data simulated for various VLTI instruments, gives mass accuracies between 0.06 and 0.13 dex, to be compared to 0.44 dex for RM mass-luminosity fits. We evaluate the number of QSOs accessible to observe with current (AMBER), upcoming (GRAVITY) and possible (OASIS with new generation fringe trackers) VLTI instruments. With available technology, the VLTI could resolve more than 60 BLRs, with a luminosity range larger than four decades, sufficient for a good calibration of RM mass-luminosity laws, from an analysis of the variation of BLR parameters with luminosity.

  13. Stress physiology in marine mammals: how well do they fit the terrestrial model?

    PubMed

    Atkinson, Shannon; Crocker, Daniel; Houser, Dorian; Mashburn, Kendall

    2015-07-01

    Stressors are commonly accepted as the causal factors, either internal or external, that evoke physiological responses to mediate the impact of the stressor. The majority of research on the physiological stress response, and costs incurred to an animal, has focused on terrestrial species. This review presents current knowledge on the physiology of the stress response in a lesser studied group of mammals, the marine mammals. Marine mammals are an artificial or pseudo grouping from a taxonomical perspective, as this group represents several distinct and diverse orders of mammals. However, they all are fully or semi-aquatic animals and have experienced selective pressures that have shaped their physiology in a manner that differs from terrestrial relatives. What these differences are and how they relate to the stress response is an efflorescent topic of study. The identification of the many facets of the stress response is critical to marine mammal management and conservation efforts. Anthropogenic stressors in marine ecosystems, including ocean noise, pollution, and fisheries interactions, are increasing and the dramatic responses of some marine mammals to these stressors have elevated concerns over the impact of human-related activities on a diverse group of animals that are difficult to monitor. This review covers the physiology of the stress response in marine mammals and places it in context of what is known from research on terrestrial mammals, particularly with respect to mediator activity that diverges from generalized terrestrial models. Challenges in conducting research on stress physiology in marine mammals are discussed and ways to overcome these challenges in the future are suggested. PMID:25913694

  14. The Model Size Effect in SEM: Inflated Goodness-of-Fit Statistics Are due to the Size of the Covariance Matrix

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moshagen, Morten

    2012-01-01

    The size of a model has been shown to critically affect the goodness of approximation of the model fit statistic "T" to the asymptotic chi-square distribution in finite samples. It is not clear, however, whether this "model size effect" is a function of the number of manifest variables, the number of free parameters, or both. It is demonstrated by…

  15. Ignoring Imperfect Detection in Biological Surveys Is Dangerous: A Response to ‘Fitting and Interpreting Occupancy Models'

    PubMed Central

    Guillera-Arroita, Gurutzeta; Lahoz-Monfort, José J.; MacKenzie, Darryl I.; Wintle, Brendan A.; McCarthy, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    In a recent paper, Welsh, Lindenmayer and Donnelly (WLD) question the usefulness of models that estimate species occupancy while accounting for detectability. WLD claim that these models are difficult to fit and argue that disregarding detectability can be better than trying to adjust for it. We think that this conclusion and subsequent recommendations are not well founded and may negatively impact the quality of statistical inference in ecology and related management decisions. Here we respond to WLD's claims, evaluating in detail their arguments, using simulations and/or theory to support our points. In particular, WLD argue that both disregarding and accounting for imperfect detection lead to the same estimator performance regardless of sample size when detectability is a function of abundance. We show that this, the key result of their paper, only holds for cases of extreme heterogeneity like the single scenario they considered. Our results illustrate the dangers of disregarding imperfect detection. When ignored, occupancy and detection are confounded: the same naïve occupancy estimates can be obtained for very different true levels of occupancy so the size of the bias is unknowable. Hierarchical occupancy models separate occupancy and detection, and imprecise estimates simply indicate that more data are required for robust inference about the system in question. As for any statistical method, when underlying assumptions of simple hierarchical models are violated, their reliability is reduced. Resorting in those instances where hierarchical occupancy models do no perform well to the naïve occupancy estimator does not provide a satisfactory solution. The aim should instead be to achieve better estimation, by minimizing the effect of these issues during design, data collection and analysis, ensuring that the right amount of data is collected and model assumptions are met, considering model extensions where appropriate. PMID:25075615

  16. How to measure inclusive fitness.

    PubMed

    Creel, S

    1990-09-22

    Although inclusive fitness (Hamilton 1964) is regarded as the basic currency of natural selection, difficulty in applying inclusive fitness theory to field studies persists, a quarter-century after its introduction (Grafen 1982, 1984; Brown 1987). For instance, strict application of the original (and currently accepted) definition of inclusive fitness predicts that no one should ever attempt to breed among obligately cooperative breeders. Much of this confusion may have arisen because Hamilton's (1964) original verbal definition of inclusive fitness was not in complete accord with his justifying model. By re-examining Hamilton's original model, a modified verbal definition of inclusive fitness can be justified. PMID:1979447

  17. Global fits of the two-loop renormalized Two-Higgs-Doublet model with soft Z 2 breaking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chowdhury, Debtosh; Eberhardt, Otto

    2015-11-01

    We determine the next-to-leading order renormalization group equations for the Two-Higgs-Doublet model with a softly broken Z 2 symmetry and CP conservation in the scalar potential. We use them to identify the parameter regions which are stable up to the Planck scale and find that in this case the quartic couplings of the Higgs potential cannot be larger than 1 in magnitude and that the absolute values of the S-matrix eigenvalues cannot exceed 2 .5 at the electroweak symmetry breaking scale. Interpreting the 125 GeV resonance as the light CP -even Higgs eigenstate, we combine stability constraints, electroweak precision and flavour observables with the latest ATLAS and CMS data on Higgs signal strengths and heavy Higgs searches in global parameter fits to all four types of Z 2 symmetry. We quantify the maximal deviations from the alignment limit and find that in type II and Y the mass of the heavy CP -even ( CP -odd) scalar cannot be smaller than 340 GeV (360 GeV). Also, we pinpoint the physical parameter regions compatible with a stable scalar potential up to the Planck scale. Motivated by the question how natural a Higgs mass of 125 GeV can be in the context of a Two-Higgs-Doublet model, we also address the hierarchy problem and find that the Two-Higgs-Doublet model does not offer a perturbative solution to it beyond 5 TeV.

  18. Expanding vaccine efficacy estimation with dynamic models fitted to cross-sectional prevalence data post-licensure.

    PubMed

    Gjini, Erida; Gomes, M Gabriela M

    2016-03-01

    The efficacy of vaccines is typically estimated prior to implementation, on the basis of randomized controlled trials. This does not preclude, however, subsequent assessment post-licensure, while mass-immunization and nonlinear transmission feedbacks are in place. In this paper we show how cross-sectional prevalence data post-vaccination can be interpreted in terms of pathogen transmission processes and vaccine parameters, using a dynamic epidemiological model. We advocate the use of such frameworks for model-based vaccine evaluation in the field, fitting trajectories of cross-sectional prevalence of pathogen strains before and after intervention. Using SI and SIS models, we illustrate how prevalence ratios in vaccinated and non-vaccinated hosts depend on true vaccine efficacy, the absolute and relative strength of competition between target and non-target strains, the time post follow-up, and transmission intensity. We argue that a mechanistic approach should be added to vaccine efficacy estimation against multi-type pathogens, because it naturally accounts for inter-strain competition and indirect effects, leading to a robust measure of individual protection per contact. Our study calls for systematic attention to epidemiological feedbacks when interpreting population level impact. At a broader level, our parameter estimation procedure provides a promising proof of principle for a generalizable framework to infer vaccine efficacy post-licensure. PMID:26972516

  19. A Genetic Multimutation Model of Autism Spectrum Disorder Fits Disparate Twin Concordance Data from the USA and Canada

    PubMed Central

    Lipkin, Paul H.; Marvin, Alison R.; Law, Paul A.

    2015-01-01

    Whether autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is caused by genetics, environmental factors, or a combination of both is still being debated today. To help resolve this issue, a genetic multimutation model of ASD development was applied to a wide variety of age-of-onset data from the USA and Canada, and the model is shown to fit all the data. Included in this analysis is new, updated data from the Interactive Autism Network (IAN) of the Kennedy Krieger Institute in Baltimore, Maryland. We find that the age-of-onset distribution for males and females is identical, suggesting that ASD may be an autosomal disorder. The ASD monozygote concordance rate in twin data predicted by the genetic multimutation model is shown to be compatible with the observed rates. If ASD is caused entirely by genetics, then the ASD concordance rate of a cohort of monozygote twins should approach 100% as the youngest pair of twins in the cohort passes 10 years of age, a prediction that constitutes a critical test of the genetic hypothesis. Thus, by measuring the ASD concordance rate as a cohort of monozygote twins age, the hypothesis that this disorder is caused entirely by genetic mutations can be tested.

  20. A global fit of the γ-ray galactic center excess within the scalar singlet Higgs portal model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cuoco, Alessandro; Eiteneuer, Benedikt; Heisig, Jan; Krämer, Michael

    2016-06-01

    We analyse the excess in the γ-ray emission from the center of our galaxy observed by Fermi-LAT in terms of dark matter annihilation within the scalar Higgs portal model. In particular, we include the astrophysical uncertainties from the dark matter distribution and allow for unspecified additional dark matter components. We demonstrate through a detailed numerical fit that the strength and shape of the γ-ray spectrum can indeed be described by the model in various regions of dark matter masses and couplings. Constraints from invisible Higgs decays, direct dark matter searches, indirect searches in dwarf galaxies and for γ-ray lines, and constraints from the dark matter relic density reduce the parameter space to dark matter masses near the Higgs resonance. We find two viable regions: one where the Higgs-dark matter coupling is of Script O(10‑2), and an additional dark matter component beyond the scalar WIMP of our model is preferred, and one region where the Higgs-dark matter coupling may be significantly smaller, but where the scalar WIMP constitutes a significant fraction or even all of dark matter. Both viable regions are hard to probe in future direct detection and collider experiments.

  1. An Investigation of the Performance of the Generalized S-X[superscript 2] Item-Fit Index for Polytomous IRT Models. ACT Research Report Series, 2007-1

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kang, Taehoon; Chen, Troy T.

    2007-01-01

    Orlando and Thissen (2000, 2003) proposed an item-fit index, S-X[superscript 2], for dichotomous item response theory (IRT) models, which has performed better than traditional item-fit statistics such as Yen's (1981) Q[subscript 1] and McKinley and Mill's (1985) G[superscript 2]. This study extends the utility of S-X[superscript 2] to polytomous…

  2. Fitting characteristics of eighteen N95 filtering-facepiece respirators.

    PubMed

    Coffey, Christopher C; Lawrence, Robert B; Campbell, Donald L; Zhuang, Ziqing; Calvert, Catherine A; Jensen, Paul A

    2004-04-01

    Four performance measures were used to evaluate the fitting characteristics of 18 models of N95 filtering-facepiece respirators: (1) the 5th percentile simulated workplace protection factor (SWPF) value, (2) the shift average SWPF value, (3) the h-value, and (4) the assignment error. The effect of fit-testing on the level of protection provided by the respirators was also evaluated. The respirators were tested on a panel of 25 subjects with various face sizes. Simulated workplace protection factor values, determined from six total penetration (face-seal leakage plus filter penetration) tests with re-donning between each test, were used to indicate respirator performance. Five fit-tests were used: Bitrex, saccharin, generated aerosol corrected for filter penetration, PortaCount Plus corrected for filter penetration, and the PortaCount Plus with the N95-Companion accessory. Without fit-testing, the 5th percentile SWPF for all models combined was 2.9 with individual model values ranging from 1.3 to 48.0. Passing a fit-test generally resulted in an increase in protection. In addition, the h-value of each respirator was computed. The h-value has been determined to be the population fraction of individuals who will obtain an adequate level of protection (i.e., SWPF >/=10, which is the expected level of protection for half-facepiece respirators) when a respirator is selected and donned (including a user seal check) in accordance with the manufacturer's instructions without fit-testing. The h-value for all models combined was 0.74 (i.e., 74% of all donnings resulted in an adequate level of protection), with individual model h-values ranging from 0.31 to 0.99. Only three models had h-values above 0.95. Higher SWPF values were achieved by excluding SWPF values determined for test subject/respirator combinations that failed a fit-test. The improvement was greatest for respirator models with lower h-values. Using the concepts of shift average and assignment error to measure

  3. Adipose Tissue - Adequate, Accessible Regenerative Material.

    PubMed

    Kolaparthy, Lakshmi Kanth; Sanivarapu, Sahitya; Moogla, Srinivas; Kutcham, Rupa Sruthi

    2015-11-01

    The potential use of stem cell based therapies for the repair and regeneration of various tissues offers a paradigm shift that may provide alternative therapeutic solutions for a number of diseases. The use of either embryonic stem cells (ESCs) or induced pluripotent stem cells in clinical situations is limited due to cell regulations and to technical and ethical considerations involved in genetic manipulation of human ESCs, even though these cells are highly beneficial. Mesenchymal stem cells seen to be an ideal population of stem cells in particular, Adipose derived stem cells (ASCs) which can be obtained in large number and easily harvested from adipose tissue. It is ubiquitously available and has several advantages compared to other sources as easily accessible in large quantities with minimal invasive harvesting procedure, and isolation of adipose derived mesenchymal stem cells yield a high amount of stem cells which is essential for stem cell based therapies and tissue engineering. Recently, periodontal tissue regeneration using ASCs has been examined in some animal models. This method has potential in the regeneration of functional periodontal tissues because various secreted growth factors from ASCs might not only promote the regeneration of periodontal tissues but also encourage neovascularization of the damaged tissues. This review summarizes the sources, isolation and characteristics of adipose derived stem cells and its potential role in periodontal regeneration is discussed. PMID:26634060

  4. Adipose Tissue - Adequate, Accessible Regenerative Material

    PubMed Central

    Kolaparthy, Lakshmi Kanth.; Sanivarapu, Sahitya; Moogla, Srinivas; Kutcham, Rupa Sruthi

    2015-01-01

    The potential use of stem cell based therapies for the repair and regeneration of various tissues offers a paradigm shift that may provide alternative therapeutic solutions for a number of diseases. The use of either embryonic stem cells (ESCs) or induced pluripotent stem cells in clinical situations is limited due to cell regulations and to technical and ethical considerations involved in genetic manipulation of human ESCs, even though these cells are highly beneficial. Mesenchymal stem cells seen to be an ideal population of stem cells in particular, Adipose derived stem cells (ASCs) which can be obtained in large number and easily harvested from adipose tissue. It is ubiquitously available and has several advantages compared to other sources as easily accessible in large quantities with minimal invasive harvesting procedure, and isolation of adipose derived mesenchymal stem cells yield a high amount of stem cells which is essential for stem cell based therapies and tissue engineering. Recently, periodontal tissue regeneration using ASCs has been examined in some animal models. This method has potential in the regeneration of functional periodontal tissues because various secreted growth factors from ASCs might not only promote the regeneration of periodontal tissues but also encourage neovascularization of the damaged tissues. This review summarizes the sources, isolation and characteristics of adipose derived stem cells and its potential role in periodontal regeneration is discussed. PMID:26634060

  5. Analysis and Modeling of Threatening Factors of Workforce’s Health in Large-Scale Workplaces: Comparison of Four-Fitting Methods to select optimum technique

    PubMed Central

    Mohammadfam, Iraj; Soltanzadeh, Ahmad; Moghimbeigi, Abbas; Savareh, Behrouz Alizadeh

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Workforce is one of the pillars of development in any country. Therefore, the workforce’s health is very important, and analyzing its threatening factors is one of the fundamental steps for health planning. This study was the first part of a comprehensive study aimed at comparing the fitting methods to analyze and model the factors threatening health in occupational injuries. Methods In this study, 980 human occupational injuries in 10 Iranian large-scale workplaces within 10 years (2005–2014) were analyzed and modeled based on the four fitting methods: linear regression, regression analysis, generalized linear model, and artificial neural networks (ANN) using IBM SPSS Modeler 14.2. Results Accident Severity Rate (ASR) of occupational injuries was 557.47 ± 397.87. The results showed that the mean of age and work experience of injured workers were 27.82 ± 5.23 and 4.39 ± 3.65 years, respectively. Analysis of health-threatening factors showed that some factors, including age, quality of provided H&S training, number of workers, hazard identification (HAZID), and periodic risk assessment, and periodic H&S training were important factors that affected ASR. In addition, the results of comparison of the four fitting methods showed that the correlation coefficient of ANN (R = 0.968) and the relative error (R.E) of ANN (R.E = 0.063) were the highest and lowest, respectively, among other fitting methods. Conclusion The findings of the present study indicated that, despite the suitability and effectiveness of all fitting methods in analyzing severity of occupational injuries, ANN is the best fitting method for modeling of the threatening factors of a workforce’s health. Furthermore, all fitting methods, especially ANN, should be considered more in analyzing and modeling of occupational injuries and health-threatening factors as well as planning to provide and improve the workforce’s health. PMID:27053999

  6. 21 CFR 201.5 - Drugs; adequate directions for use.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Drugs; adequate directions for use. 201.5 Section...) DRUGS: GENERAL LABELING General Labeling Provisions § 201.5 Drugs; adequate directions for use. Adequate directions for use means directions under which the layman can use a drug safely and for the purposes...

  7. 21 CFR 201.5 - Drugs; adequate directions for use.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 4 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Drugs; adequate directions for use. 201.5 Section...) DRUGS: GENERAL LABELING General Labeling Provisions § 201.5 Drugs; adequate directions for use. Adequate directions for use means directions under which the layman can use a drug safely and for the purposes...

  8. 4 CFR 200.14 - Responsibility for maintaining adequate safeguards.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 4 Accounts 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Responsibility for maintaining adequate safeguards. 200.14 Section 200.14 Accounts RECOVERY ACCOUNTABILITY AND TRANSPARENCY BOARD PRIVACY ACT OF 1974 § 200.14 Responsibility for maintaining adequate safeguards. The Board has the responsibility for maintaining adequate technical, physical, and...

  9. 10 CFR 1304.114 - Responsibility for maintaining adequate safeguards.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Responsibility for maintaining adequate safeguards. 1304.114 Section 1304.114 Energy NUCLEAR WASTE TECHNICAL REVIEW BOARD PRIVACY ACT OF 1974 § 1304.114 Responsibility for maintaining adequate safeguards. The Board has the responsibility for maintaining adequate technical, physical, and security...

  10. 10 CFR 1304.114 - Responsibility for maintaining adequate safeguards.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Responsibility for maintaining adequate safeguards. 1304.114 Section 1304.114 Energy NUCLEAR WASTE TECHNICAL REVIEW BOARD PRIVACY ACT OF 1974 § 1304.114 Responsibility for maintaining adequate safeguards. The Board has the responsibility for maintaining adequate technical, physical, and security...

  11. 4 CFR 200.14 - Responsibility for maintaining adequate safeguards.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 4 Accounts 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Responsibility for maintaining adequate safeguards. 200....14 Responsibility for maintaining adequate safeguards. The Board has the responsibility for maintaining adequate technical, physical, and security safeguards to prevent unauthorized disclosure...

  12. Mechanistic Models Fit to ED001 Data on >40,000 Trout Exposed to Dibenzo[A,L]pyrene Indicate Mutations Do Not Drive Increased Tumor Risk

    PubMed Central

    Bogen, Kenneth T.

    2014-01-01

    ED001-study data on increased liver and stomach tumor risks in >40,000 trout fed dibenzo[a,l]pyrene (DBP), one of the most potently mutagenic chemical carcinogens known, provide the greatest low-dose dose-response resolution of any experimentally induced tumor data set to date. Although multistage somatic mutation/clonal-expansion cancer theory predicts that genotoxic carcinogens increase tumor risk in linear no-threshold proportion to dose at low doses, ED001 tumor data curiously exhibit substantial low-dose nonlinearity. To explore the role that nongenotoxic mechanisms may have played to yield such nonlinearity, the liver and stomach tumor data sets were each fit by two models that each assume a genotoxic and a nongenotoxic pathway to increased tumor risk: the stochastic 2-stage (MVK) cancer model, and a model implementing the more recent dysregulated adaptive hyperplasia (DAH) theory of tumorigenesis. MVK and DAH fits to the data sets were each excellent, but unexpectedly each MVK fit implies that DBP acts to increase tumor risk by entirely non-mutagenic mechanisms. Given that DBP is such a potent mutagen, the MVK-model fits obtained appear to be biologically implausible, whereas the DAH-model fits reflect that model’s assumption that chemical-induced tumorigenesis typically is driven by elevated repair-cell populations rather than mutations per se. PMID:25249832

  13. Model based period analysis of absolute and relative survival with R: data preparation, model fitting and derivation of survival estimates.

    PubMed

    Holleczek, Bernd; Brenner, Hermann

    2013-05-01

    Period analysis is increasingly employed in analyses of long-term survival of patients with chronic diseases such as cancer, as it derives more up-to-date survival estimates than traditional cohort based approaches. It has recently been extended with regression modelling using generalized linear models, which increases the precision of the survival estimates and enables to assess and account for effects of additional covariates. This paper provides a detailed presentation how model based period analysis may be used to derive population-based absolute and relative survival estimates using the freely available R language and statistical environment and already available R programs for period analysis. After an introduction of the underlying regression model and a description of the software tools we provide a step-by-step implementation of two regression models in R and illustrate how estimates and a test for trend over time in relative survival may be derived using data from a population based cancer registry. PMID:23116692

  14. Analysis of response to 20 generations of selection for body composition in mice: fit to infinitesimal model assumptions

    PubMed Central

    Martinez, Victor; Bünger, Lutz; Hill, William G

    2000-01-01

    Data were analysed from a divergent selection experiment for an indicator of body composition in the mouse, the ratio of gonadal fat pad to body weight (GFPR). Lines were selected for 20 generations for fat (F), lean (L) or were unselected (C), with three replicates of each. Selection was within full-sib families, 16 families per replicate for the first seven generations, eight subsequently. At generation 20, GFPR in the F lines was twice and in the L lines half that of C. A log transformation removed both asymmetry of response and heterogeneity of variance among lines, and so was used throughout. Estimates of genetic variance and heritability (approximately 50%) obtained using REML with an animal model were very similar, whether estimated from the first few generations of selection, or from all 20 generations, or from late generations having fitted pedigree. The estimates were also similar when estimated from selected or control lines. Estimates from REML also agreed with estimates of realised heritability. The results all accord with expectations under the infinitesimal model, despite the four-fold changes in mean. Relaxed selection lines, derived from generation 20, showed little regression in fatness after 40 generations without selection. PMID:14736404

  15. Environmental Fit: A Model for Assessing and Treating Problem Behavior Associated with Curricular Difficulties in Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blakeley-Smith, Audrey; Carr, Edward G.; Cale, Sanja I.; Owen-DeSchryver, Jamie S.

    2009-01-01

    Theoretical considerations suggest that problem behavior should increase when a child's competency does not match the curricular demands of the environment (i.e., when there is poor environmental fit). In the present study, environmental fit was examined for six children with autism spectrum disorders. Results indicated that the children exhibited…

  16. Fit of Item Response Theory Models: A Survey of Data from Several Operational Tests. Research Report. ETS RR-11-29

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sinharay, Sandip; Haberman, Shelby J.; Jia, Helena

    2011-01-01

    Standard 3.9 of the "Standards for Educational and Psychological Testing" (American Educational Research Association, American Psychological Association, & National Council for Measurement in Education, 1999) demands evidence of model fit when an item response theory (IRT) model is used to make inferences from a data set. We applied two recently…

  17. Fitting New Measurement Models to GRE General Test Constructed-Response Item Data. GRE Board Professional Report No. 89-11P.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bennett, Randy Elliot; And Others

    This exploratory study applied two new cognitively sensitive measurement models to constructed-response quantitative data. The models, intended to produce qualitative characteristics of examinee performance, were fitted to algebra word problem solutions produced by 285 examinees taking the Graduate Record Examinations (GRE) General Test. The two…

  18. A simple epidemiological model for populations in the wild with Allee effects and disease-modified fitness

    PubMed Central

    Kang, Yun; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos

    2014-01-01

    The study of the dynamics of human infectious disease using deterministic models is typically carried out under the assumption that a critical mass of individuals is available and involved in the transmission process. However, in the study of animal disease dynamics where demographic considerations often play a significant role, this assumption must be weakened. Models of the dynamics of animal populations often naturally assume that the presence of a minimal number of individuals is essential to avoid extinction. In the ecological literature, this a priori requirement is commonly incorporated as an Allee effect. The focus here is on the study disease dynamics under the assumption that a critical mass of susceptible individuals is required to guarantee the population's survival. Specifically, the emphasis is on the study of the role of an Allee effect on a Susceptible-Infectious (SI) model where the possibility that susceptible and infected individuals reproduce, with the S-class the best fit. It is further assumed that infected individuals loose some of their ability to compete for resources, the cost imposed by the disease. These features are set in motion in as simple model as possible. They turn out to lead to a rich set of dynamical outcomes. This toy model supports the possibility of multi-stability (hysteresis), saddle node and Hopf bifurcations, and catastrophic events (disease-induced extinction). The analyses provide a full picture of the system under disease-free dynamics including disease-induced extinction and proceed to identify required conditions for disease persistence. We conclude that increases in (i) the maximum birth rate of a species, or (ii) in the relative reproductive ability of infected individuals, or (iii) in the competitive ability of a infected individuals at low density levels, or in (iv) the per-capita death rate (including disease-induced) of infected individuals, can stabilize the system (resulting in disease persistence). We

  19. A simple epidemiological model for populations in the wild with Allee effects and disease-modified fitness.

    PubMed

    Kang, Yun; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos

    2014-01-01

    The study of the dynamics of human infectious disease using deterministic models is typically carried out under the assumption that a critical mass of individuals is available and involved in the transmission process. However, in the study of animal disease dynamics where demographic considerations often play a significant role, this assumption must be weakened. Models of the dynamics of animal populations often naturally assume that the presence of a minimal number of individuals is essential to avoid extinction. In the ecological literature, this a priori requirement is commonly incorporated as an Allee effect. The focus here is on the study disease dynamics under the assumption that a critical mass of susceptible individuals is required to guarantee the population's survival. Specifically, the emphasis is on the study of the role of an Allee effect on a Susceptible-Infectious (SI) model where the possibility that susceptible and infected individuals reproduce, with the S-class the best fit. It is further assumed that infected individuals loose some of their ability to compete for resources, the cost imposed by the disease. These features are set in motion in as simple model as possible. They turn out to lead to a rich set of dynamical outcomes. This toy model supports the possibility of multi-stability (hysteresis), saddle node and Hopf bifurcations, and catastrophic events (disease-induced extinction). The analyses provide a full picture of the system under disease-free dynamics including disease-induced extinction and proceed to identify required conditions for disease persistence. We conclude that increases in (i) the maximum birth rate of a species, or (ii) in the relative reproductive ability of infected individuals, or (iii) in the competitive ability of a infected individuals at low density levels, or in (iv) the per-capita death rate (including disease-induced) of infected individuals, can stabilize the system (resulting in disease persistence). We

  20. Impact of task-related changes in heart rate on estimation of hemodynamic response and model fit.

    PubMed

    Hillenbrand, Sarah F; Ivry, Richard B; Schlerf, John E

    2016-05-15

    The blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) signal, as measured using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), is widely used as a proxy for changes in neural activity in the brain. Physiological variables such as heart rate (HR) and respiratory variation (RV) affect the BOLD signal in a way that may interfere with the estimation and detection of true task-related neural activity. This interference is of particular concern when these variables themselves show task-related modulations. We first establish that a simple movement task reliably induces a change in HR but not RV. In group data, the effect of HR on the BOLD response was larger and more widespread throughout the brain than were the effects of RV or phase regressors. The inclusion of HR regressors, but not RV or phase regressors, had a small but reliable effect on the estimated hemodynamic response function (HRF) in M1 and the cerebellum. We next asked whether the inclusion of a nested set of physiological regressors combining phase, RV, and HR significantly improved the model fit in individual participants' data sets. There was a significant improvement from HR correction in M1 for the greatest number of participants, followed by RV and phase correction. These improvements were more modest in the cerebellum. These results indicate that accounting for task-related modulation of physiological variables can improve the detection and estimation of true neural effects of interest. PMID:26944859