45 CFR 153.310 - Risk adjustment administration.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Risk adjustment administration. 153.310 Section 153.310 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE CARE...

45 CFR 153.310 - Risk adjustment administration.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Risk adjustment administration. 153.310 Section 153.310 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE CARE...

Risk Selection, Risk Adjustment and Choice: Concepts and Lessons from the Americas

PubMed Central

Ellis, Randall P.; Fernandez, Juan Gabriel

2013-01-01

Interest has grown worldwide in risk adjustment and risk sharing due to their potential to contain costs, improve fairness, and reduce selection problems in health care markets. Significant steps have been made in the empirical development of risk adjustment models, and in the theoretical foundations of risk adjustment and risk sharing. This literature has often modeled the effects of risk adjustment without highlighting the institutional setting, regulations, and diverse selection problems that risk adjustment is intended to fix. Perhaps because of this, the existing literature and their recommendations for optimal risk adjustment or optimal payment systems are sometimes confusing. In this paper, we present a unified way of thinking about the organizational structure of health care systems, which enables us to focus on two key dimensions of markets that have received less attention: what choices are available that may lead to selection problems, and what financial or regulatory tools other than risk adjustment are used to influence these choices. We specifically examine the health care systems, choices, and problems in four countries: the US, Canada, Chile, and Colombia, and examine the relationship between selection-related efficiency and fairness problems and the choices that are allowed in each country, and discuss recent regulatory reforms that affect choices and selection problems. In this sample, countries and insurance programs with more choices have more selection problems. PMID:24284351

A demand-side view of risk adjustment.

PubMed

Feldman, R; Dowd, B E; Maciejewski, M

2001-01-01

This paper analyzes the efficient allocation of consumers to health plans. Specifically, we address the question of why employers that offer multiple health plans often make larger contributions to the premiums of the high-cost plans. Our perspective is that the subsidy for high-cost plans represents a form of demand-side risk adjustment that improves efficiency. Without such subsidies (and in the absence of formal risk adjustment), too few employees would choose the high-cost plans preferred by high-risk workers. We test the theory by estimating a model of the employer premium subsidy, using data from a survey of large public employers in 1994. Our empirical analysis shows that employers are more likely to subsidize high-cost plans when the benefits of risk adjustment are greater. The findings suggest that the premium subsidy can accomplish some of the benefits of formal risk adjustment.

A simple signaling rule for variable life-adjusted display derived from an equivalent risk-adjusted CUSUM chart.

PubMed

Wittenberg, Philipp; Gan, Fah Fatt; Knoth, Sven

2018-04-17

The variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) is the first risk-adjusted graphical procedure proposed in the literature for monitoring the performance of a surgeon. It displays the cumulative sum of expected minus observed deaths. It has since become highly popular because the statistic plotted is easy to understand. But it is also easy to misinterpret a surgeon's performance by utilizing the VLAD, potentially leading to grave consequences. The problem of misinterpretation is essentially caused by the variance of the VLAD's statistic that increases with sample size. In order for the VLAD to be truly useful, a simple signaling rule is desperately needed. Various forms of signaling rules have been developed, but they are usually quite complicated. Without signaling rules, making inferences using the VLAD alone is difficult if not misleading. In this paper, we establish an equivalence between a VLAD with V-mask and a risk-adjusted cumulative sum (RA-CUSUM) chart based on the difference between the estimated probability of death and surgical outcome. Average run length analysis based on simulation shows that this particular RA-CUSUM chart has similar performance as compared to the established RA-CUSUM chart based on the log-likelihood ratio statistic obtained by testing the odds ratio of death. We provide a simple design procedure for determining the V-mask parameters based on a resampling approach. Resampling from a real data set ensures that these parameters can be estimated appropriately. Finally, we illustrate the monitoring of a real surgeon's performance using VLAD with V-mask. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluation of an automated safety surveillance system using risk adjusted sequential probability ratio testing.

PubMed

Matheny, Michael E; Normand, Sharon-Lise T; Gross, Thomas P; Marinac-Dabic, Danica; Loyo-Berrios, Nilsa; Vidi, Venkatesan D; Donnelly, Sharon; Resnic, Frederic S

2011-12-14

Automated adverse outcome surveillance tools and methods have potential utility in quality improvement and medical product surveillance activities. Their use for assessing hospital performance on the basis of patient outcomes has received little attention. We compared risk-adjusted sequential probability ratio testing (RA-SPRT) implemented in an automated tool to Massachusetts public reports of 30-day mortality after isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery. A total of 23,020 isolated adult coronary artery bypass surgery admissions performed in Massachusetts hospitals between January 1, 2002 and September 30, 2007 were retrospectively re-evaluated. The RA-SPRT method was implemented within an automated surveillance tool to identify hospital outliers in yearly increments. We used an overall type I error rate of 0.05, an overall type II error rate of 0.10, and a threshold that signaled if the odds of dying 30-days after surgery was at least twice than expected. Annual hospital outlier status, based on the state-reported classification, was considered the gold standard. An event was defined as at least one occurrence of a higher-than-expected hospital mortality rate during a given year. We examined a total of 83 hospital-year observations. The RA-SPRT method alerted 6 events among three hospitals for 30-day mortality compared with 5 events among two hospitals using the state public reports, yielding a sensitivity of 100% (5/5) and specificity of 98.8% (79/80). The automated RA-SPRT method performed well, detecting all of the true institutional outliers with a small false positive alerting rate. Such a system could provide confidential automated notification to local institutions in advance of public reporting providing opportunities for earlier quality improvement interventions.

Risk adjustment for case mix and the effect of surgeon volume on morbidity.

PubMed

Maas, Matthew B; Jaff, Michael R; Rordorf, Guy A

2013-06-01

Retrospective studies of large administrative databases have shown higher mortality for procedures performed by low-volume surgeons, but the adequacy of risk adjustment in those studies is in doubt. To determine whether the relationship between surgeon volume and outcomes is an artifact of case mix using a prospective sample of carotid endarterectomy cases. Observational cohort study from January 1, 2008, through December 31, 2010, with preoperative, immediate postoperative, and 30-day postoperative assessments acquired by independent monitors. Urban, tertiary academic medical center. All 841 patients who underwent carotid endarterectomy performed by a vascular surgeon or cerebrovascular neurosurgeon at the institution. Carotid endarterectomy without another concurrent surgery. Stroke, death, and other surgical complications occurring within 30 days of surgery along with other case data. A low-volume surgeon performed 40 or fewer cases per year. Variables used in a comparison administrative database study, as well as variables identified by our univariate analysis, were used for adjusted analyses to assess for an association between low-volume surgeons and the rate of stroke and death as well as other complications. RESULTS The rate of stroke and death was 6.9% for low-volume surgeons and 2.0% for high-volume surgeons (P = .001). Complications were similarly higher (13.4% vs 7.2%, P = .008). Low-volume surgeons performed more nonelective cases. Low-volume surgeons were significantly associated with stroke and death in the unadjusted analysis as well as after adjustment with variables used in the administrative database study (odds ratio, 3.61; 95% CI, 1.70-7.67, and odds ratio, 3.68; 95% CI, 1.72-7.89, respectively). However, adjusting for the significant disparity of American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status classification in case mix eliminated the effect of surgeon volume on the rate of stroke and death (odds ratio, 1.65; 95% CI, 0.59-4.64) and other

Association between ratio indexes of body composition phenotypes and metabolic risk in Italian adults.

PubMed

Powell, M; Lara, J; Mocciaro, G; Prado, C M; Battezzati, A; Leone, A; Tagliabue, A; de Amicis, R; Vignati, L; Bertoli, S; Siervo, M

2016-12-01

The ratio between fat mass (FM) and fat-free mass (FFM) has been used to discriminate individual differences in body composition and improve prediction of metabolic risk. Here, we evaluated whether the use of a visceral adipose tissue-to-fat-free mass index (VAT:FFMI) ratio was a better predictor of metabolic risk than a fat mass index to fat-free mass index (FMI:FFMI) ratio. This is a cross-sectional study including 3441 adult participants (age range 18-81; men/women: 977/2464). FM and FFM were measured by bioelectrical impedance analysis and VAT by ultrasonography. A continuous metabolic risk Z score and harmonised international criteria were used to define cumulative metabolic risk and metabolic syndrome (MetS), respectively. Multivariate logistic and linear regression models were used to test associations between body composition indexes and metabolic risk. In unadjusted models, VAT:FFMI was a better predictor of MetS (OR 8.03, 95%CI 6.69-9.65) compared to FMI:FFMI (OR 2.91, 95%CI 2.45-3.46). However, the strength of association of VAT:FFMI and FMI:FFMI became comparable when models were adjusted for age, gender, clinical and sociodemographic factors (OR 4.06, 95%CI 3.31-4.97; OR 4.25, 95%CI 3.42-5.27, respectively). A similar pattern was observed for the association of the two indexes with the metabolic risk Z score (VAT:FFMI: unadjusted b = 0.69 ± 0.03, adjusted b = 0.36 ± 0.03; FMI:FFMI: unadjusted b = 0.28 ± 0.028, adjusted b = 0.38 ± 0.02). Our results suggest that there is no real advantage in using either VAT:FFMI or FMI:FFMI ratios as a predictor of metabolic risk in adults. However, these results warrant confirmation in longitudinal studies. © 2016 World Obesity Federation.

[Health-based risk adjustment. Effects and side effects].

PubMed

Jahn, R; Schillo, S; Wasem, J

2012-05-01

Numerous health systems have introduced competition between health plans while banning risk-rated premiums. Risk adjustment for health plans is introduced to reduce incentives for risk selection and to create incentives for health plans to permanently invest in care for the chronically ill. According to the international health economics state of the art, risk adjustment in the German social health insurance system has used information on health status (measured by diagnoses and drug prescriptions) on top of demographic information since 2009. In non-competitive health care systems similar mechanisms are sometimes established, e.g. to achieve an equitable distribution of resources between regions. An evaluation of the first year of health-based risk adjustment demonstrates a superior performance in comparison to the old, demographic risk adjustment. The old risk adjustment formula (without ex post high-cost pooling) showed R(2) of 5.8%, CPM of 10.4% and MAPE of 2,226 €, in contrast to the new health status-based risk adjustment formula (without cash benefit for sick allowance) which reaches R(2) 20.2%, CPM 22.5% and MAPE 1,817 €. However, to make competition between health plans functional for improvement of quality and efficiency of health care, health plans must be granted additional instruments to act as prudent buyers of health care.

45 CFR 153.340 - Data collection under risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... issuers offering risk adjustment covered plans in the State comply with data privacy and security... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Data collection under risk adjustment. 153.340... CARE ACT State Standards Related to the Risk Adjustment Program § 153.340 Data collection under risk...

Alternative evaluation metrics for risk adjustment methods.

PubMed

Park, Sungchul; Basu, Anirban

2018-06-01

Risk adjustment is instituted to counter risk selection by accurately equating payments with expected expenditures. Traditional risk-adjustment methods are designed to estimate accurate payments at the group level. However, this generates residual risks at the individual level, especially for high-expenditure individuals, thereby inducing health plans to avoid those with high residual risks. To identify an optimal risk-adjustment method, we perform a comprehensive comparison of prediction accuracies at the group level, at the tail distributions, and at the individual level across 19 estimators: 9 parametric regression, 7 machine learning, and 3 distributional estimators. Using the 2013-2014 MarketScan database, we find that no one estimator performs best in all prediction accuracies. Generally, machine learning and distribution-based estimators achieve higher group-level prediction accuracy than parametric regression estimators. However, parametric regression estimators show higher tail distribution prediction accuracy and individual-level prediction accuracy, especially at the tails of the distribution. This suggests that there is a trade-off in selecting an appropriate risk-adjustment method between estimating accurate payments at the group level and lower residual risks at the individual level. Our results indicate that an optimal method cannot be determined solely on the basis of statistical metrics but rather needs to account for simulating plans' risk selective behaviors. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

45 CFR 153.350 - Risk adjustment data validation standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... implementation of any risk adjustment software and ensure proper validation of a statistically valid sample of... respect to implementation of risk adjustment software or as a result of data validation conducted pursuant... implementation of risk adjustment software or data validation. ...

42 CFR 422.310 - Risk adjustment data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... include financial penalties for failure to submit complete data. (e) Validation of risk adjustment data... records for the validation of risk adjustment data, as required by CMS. There may be penalties for... the prior December 31. (2) CMS allows a reconciliation process to account for late data submissions...

42 CFR 422.310 - Risk adjustment data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... include financial penalties for failure to submit complete data. (e) Validation of risk adjustment data... records for the validation of risk adjustment data, as required by CMS. There may be penalties for... the prior December 31. (2) CMS allows a reconciliation process to account for late data submissions...

45 CFR 153.620 - Compliance with risk adjustment standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... with risk adjustment standards. (a) Issuer support of data validation. An issuer that offers risk adjustment covered plans must comply with any data validation requests by the State or HHS on behalf of the... must retain any information requested to support risk adjustment data validation for a period of at...

45 CFR 153.620 - Compliance with risk adjustment standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... with risk adjustment standards. (a) Issuer support of data validation. An issuer that offers risk adjustment covered plans must comply with any data validation requests by the State or HHS on behalf of the... must retain any information requested to support risk adjustment data validation for a period of at...

Affordable Care Act risk adjustment: overview, context, and challenges.

PubMed

Kautter, John; Pope, Gregory C; Keenan, Patricia

2014-01-01

Beginning in 2014, individuals and small businesses will be able to purchase private health insurance through competitive marketplaces. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) provides for a program of risk adjustment in the individual and small group markets in 2014 as Marketplaces are implemented and new market reforms take effect. The purpose of risk adjustment is to lessen or eliminate the influence of risk selection on the premiums that plans charge and the incentive for plans to avoid sicker enrollees. This article--the first of three in the Medicare & Medicaid Research Review--describes the key program goal and issues in the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) developed risk adjustment methodology, and identifies key choices in how the methodology responds to these issues. The goal of the HHS risk adjustment methodology is to compensate health insurance plans for differences in enrollee health mix so that plan premiums reflect differences in scope of coverage and other plan factors, but not differences in health status. The methodology includes a risk adjustment model and a risk transfer formula that together address this program goal as well as three issues specific to ACA risk adjustment: 1) new population; 2) cost and rating factors; and 3) balanced transfers within state/market. The risk adjustment model, described in the second article, estimates differences in health risks taking into account the new population and scope of coverage (actuarial value level). The transfer formula, described in the third article, calculates balanced transfers that are intended to account for health risk differences while preserving permissible premium differences.

Risk-adjusted capitation: recent experiences in The Netherlands.

PubMed

van de Ven, W P; van Vliet, R C; van Barneveld, E M; Lamers, L M

1994-01-01

The market-oriented health care reforms taking place in the Netherlands show a clear resemblance to the proposals for managed competition in U.S. health care. In both countries good risk adjustment mechanisms that prevent cream skimming--that is, that prevent plans from selecting the best health risks--are critical to the success of the reforms. In this paper we present an overview of the Dutch reforms and of our research concerning risk-adjusted capitation payments. Although we are optimistic about the technical possibilities for solving the problem of cream skimming, the implementation of good risk-adjusted capitation is a long-term challenge.

Ratio measures in leading medical journals: structured review of accessibility of underlying absolute risks

PubMed Central

Schwartz, Lisa M; Dvorin, Evan L; Welch, H Gilbert

2006-01-01

Objective To examine the accessibility of absolute risk in articles reporting ratio measures in leading medical journals. Design Structured review of abstracts presenting ratio measures. Setting Articles published between 1 June 2003 and 1 May 2004 in Annals of Internal Medicine, BMJ, Journal of the American Medical Association, Journal of the National Cancer Institute, Lancet, and New England Journal of Medicine. Participants 222 articles based on study designs in which absolute risks were directly calculable (61 randomised trials, 161 cohort studies). Main outcome measure Accessibility of the absolute risks underlying the first ratio measure in the abstract. Results 68% of articles (150/222) failed to report the underlying absolute risks for the first ratio measure in the abstract (range 55−81% across the journals). Among these articles, about half did report the underlying absolute risks elsewhere in the article (text, table, or figure) but half did not report them anywhere. Absolute risks were more likely to be reported in the abstract for randomised trials compared with cohort studies (62% v 21%; relative risk 3.0, 95% confidence interval 2.1 to 4.2) and for studies reporting crude compared with adjusted ratio measures (62% v 21%; relative risk 3.0, 2.1 to 4.3). Conclusion Absolute risks are often not easily accessible in articles reporting ratio measures and sometimes are missing altogether—this lack of accessibility can easily exaggerate readers' perceptions of benefit or harm. PMID:17060338

Managing loss adjustment expenses: strategies for health care risk managers.

PubMed

Quinley, K M

1991-01-01

Like most businesses, adjusting companies are not charitable organizations. They are entitled to a reasonable profit, which the risk manager should not begrudge. As a buyer of adjusting services, a risk manager with an inordinate obsession with slashing adjusting bills can destroy the goal of high-quality service. It is best for risk managers to pick and choose the areas for cutting adjusting expenses. To an extent, health care risk managers should view payment of high-quality adjusting services as an investment, with the payback being money saved by fighting fraudulent, exaggerated, and questionable claims.

45 CFR 153.320 - Federally certified risk adjustment methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Federally certified risk adjustment methodology. 153.320 Section 153.320 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

45 CFR 153.340 - Data collection under risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Data collection under risk adjustment. 153.340 Section 153.340 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE...

45 CFR 153.330 - State alternate risk adjustment methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false State alternate risk adjustment methodology. 153.330 Section 153.330 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

45 CFR 153.330 - State alternate risk adjustment methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false State alternate risk adjustment methodology. 153.330 Section 153.330 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

45 CFR 153.320 - Federally certified risk adjustment methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Federally certified risk adjustment methodology. 153.320 Section 153.320 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

45 CFR 153.620 - Compliance with risk adjustment standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Compliance with risk adjustment standards. 153.620 Section 153.620 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE...

45 CFR 153.320 - Federally certified risk adjustment methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Federally certified risk adjustment methodology. 153.320 Section 153.320 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

45 CFR 153.330 - State alternate risk adjustment methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false State alternate risk adjustment methodology. 153.330 Section 153.330 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

[Risk-adjusted assessment: late-onset infection in neonates].

PubMed

Gmyrek, Dieter; Koch, Rainer; Vogtmann, Christoph; Kaiser, Annette; Friedrich, Annette

2011-01-01

The weak point of the countrywide perinatal/neonatal quality surveillance is the ignorance of interhospital differences in the case mix of patients. As a result, this approach does not produce reliable benchmarking. The objective of this study was to adjust the result of the late-onset infection incidence of different hospitals according to their risk profile of patients by multivariate analysis. The perinatal/neonatal database of 41,055 newborns of the Saxonian quality surveillance from 1998 to 2004 was analysed. Based on 18 possible risk factors, a logistic regression model was used to develop a specific risk predictor for the quality indicator "late-onset infection". The developed risk predictor for the incidence of late-onset infection could be described by 4 of the 18 analysed risk factors, namely gestational age, admission from home, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy and B-streptococcal infection. The AUC(ROC) value of this quality indicator was 83.3%, which demonstrates its reliability. The hospital ranking based on the adjusted risk assessment was very different from hospital rankings before this adjustment. The average correction of ranking position was 4.96 for 35 clinics. The application of the risk adjustment method proposed here allows for a more objective comparison of the incidence of the quality indicator "late onset infection" among different hospitals. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Using risk-adjustment models to identify high-cost risks.

PubMed

Meenan, Richard T; Goodman, Michael J; Fishman, Paul A; Hornbrook, Mark C; O'Keeffe-Rosetti, Maureen C; Bachman, Donald J

2003-11-01

We examine the ability of various publicly available risk models to identify high-cost individuals and enrollee groups using multi-HMO administrative data. Five risk-adjustment models (the Global Risk-Adjustment Model [GRAM], Diagnostic Cost Groups [DCGs], Adjusted Clinical Groups [ACGs], RxRisk, and Prior-expense) were estimated on a multi-HMO administrative data set of 1.5 million individual-level observations for 1995-1996. Models produced distributions of individual-level annual expense forecasts for comparison to actual values. Prespecified "high-cost" thresholds were set within each distribution. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for "high-cost" prevalences of 1% and 0.5% was calculated, as was the proportion of "high-cost" dollars correctly identified. Results are based on a separate 106,000-observation validation dataset. For "high-cost" prevalence targets of 1% and 0.5%, ACGs, DCGs, GRAM, and Prior-expense are very comparable in overall discrimination (AUCs, 0.83-0.86). Given a 0.5% prevalence target and a 0.5% prediction threshold, DCGs, GRAM, and Prior-expense captured $963,000 (approximately 3%) more "high-cost" sample dollars than other models. DCGs captured the most "high-cost" dollars among enrollees with asthma, diabetes, and depression; predictive performance among demographic groups (Medicaid members, members over 64, and children under 13) varied across models. Risk models can efficiently identify enrollees who are likely to generate future high costs and who could benefit from case management. The dollar value of improved prediction performance of the most accurate risk models should be meaningful to decision-makers and encourage their broader use for identifying high costs.

Sex ratio adjustment by sex-specific maternal cannibalism in hamsters.

PubMed

Beery, Annaliese K; Zucker, Irving

2012-10-10

Mammalian offspring sex ratios can be biased via prenatal and postnatal mechanisms, including sperm selection, sex-specific embryo loss, and differential postnatal investment in males and females. Syrian hamsters routinely cannibalize some of their pups in the first days after birth. We present evidence that short day lengths, typically predictive of poor autumn and winter field conditions, are associated with male-biased sex ratios, achieved in part through selective perinatal maternal infanticide of female offspring. Higher peak litter sizes were associated with increased cannibalism rates, decreased final litter counts, and increased body mass of pups surviving to weaning. To our knowledge this is the first report of sex ratio adjustment by offspring cannibalism. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Adjustment for a Children's Capitation Rate

PubMed Central

Newhouse, Joseph P.; Sloss, Elizabeth M.; Manning, Willard G.; Keeler, Emmett B.

1993-01-01

Few capitation arrangements vary premiums by a child's health characteristics, yielding an incentive to discriminate against children with predictably high expenditures from chronic diseases. In this article, we explore risk adjusters for the 35 percent of the variance in annual outpatient expenditure we find to be potentially predictable. Demographic factors such as age and gender only explain 5 percent of such variance; health status measures explain 25 percent, prior use and health status measures together explain 65 to 70 percent. The profit from risk selection falls less than proportionately with improved ability to adjust for risk. Partial capitation rates may be necessary to mitigate skimming and dumping. PMID:10133708

Risk adjustment for a children's capitation rate.

PubMed

Newhouse, J P; Sloss, E M; Manning, W G; Keeler, E B

1993-01-01

Few capitation arrangements vary premiums by a child's health characteristics, yielding an incentive to discriminate against children with predictably high expenditures from chronic diseases. In this article, we explore risk adjusters for the 35 percent of the variance in annual out-patient expenditure we find to be potentially predictable. Demographic factors such as age and gender only explain 5 percent of such variance; health status measures explain 25 percent, prior use and health status measures together explain 65 to 70 percent. The profit from risk selection falls less than proportionately with improved ability to adjust for risk. Partial capitation rates may be necessary to mitigate skimming and dumping.

45 CFR 153.340 - Data collection under risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... program, the State may vary the amount and type of data collected, but the State must collect or calculate... 45 Public Welfare 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Data collection under risk adjustment. 153.340... CARE ACT State Standards Related to the Risk Adjustment Program § 153.340 Data collection under risk...

Compression Ratio Adjuster

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Akkerman, J. W.

1982-01-01

New mechanism alters compression ratio of internal-combustion engine according to load so that engine operates at top fuel efficiency. Ordinary gasoline, diesel and gas engines with their fixed compression ratios are inefficient at partial load and at low-speed full load. Mechanism ensures engines operate as efficiently under these conditions as they do at highload and high speed.

A Machine Learning Framework for Plan Payment Risk Adjustment.

PubMed

Rose, Sherri

2016-12-01

To introduce cross-validation and a nonparametric machine learning framework for plan payment risk adjustment and then assess whether they have the potential to improve risk adjustment. 2011-2012 Truven MarketScan database. We compare the performance of multiple statistical approaches within a broad machine learning framework for estimation of risk adjustment formulas. Total annual expenditure was predicted using age, sex, geography, inpatient diagnoses, and hierarchical condition category variables. The methods included regression, penalized regression, decision trees, neural networks, and an ensemble super learner, all in concert with screening algorithms that reduce the set of variables considered. The performance of these methods was compared based on cross-validated R 2 . Our results indicate that a simplified risk adjustment formula selected via this nonparametric framework maintains much of the efficiency of a traditional larger formula. The ensemble approach also outperformed classical regression and all other algorithms studied. The implementation of cross-validated machine learning techniques provides novel insight into risk adjustment estimation, possibly allowing for a simplified formula, thereby reducing incentives for increased coding intensity as well as the ability of insurers to "game" the system with aggressive diagnostic upcoding. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

78 FR 32255 - HHS-Operated Risk Adjustment Data Validation Stakeholder Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-29

...-Operated Risk Adjustment Data Validation Stakeholder Meeting AGENCY: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid... Act HHS-operated risk adjustment data validation process. The purpose of this public meeting is to... interested parties about key HHS policy considerations pertaining to the HHS-operated risk adjustment data...

Adjusting Permittivity by Blending Varying Ratios of SWNTs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tour, James M.; Stephenson, Jason J.; Higginbotham, Amanda

2012-01-01

A new composite material of singlewalled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs) displays radio frequency (0 to 1 GHz) permittivity properties that can be adjusted based upon the nanotube composition. When varying ratios of raw to functionalized SWNTs are blended into the silicone elastomer matrix at a total loading of 0.5 percent by weight, a target real permittivity value can be obtained between 70 and 3. This has particular use for designing materials for microwave lenses, microstrips, filters, resonators, high-strength/low-weight electromagnetic interference (EMI) shielding, antennas, waveguides, and low-loss magneto-dielectric products for applications like radome construction.

Impact of Race/Ethnicity and Socioeconomic Status on Risk-Adjusted Hospital Readmission Rates Following Hip and Knee Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Martsolf, Grant R; Barrett, Marguerite L; Weiss, Audrey J; Kandrack, Ryan; Washington, Raynard; Steiner, Claudia A; Mehrotra, Ateev; SooHoo, Nelson F; Coffey, Rosanna

2016-08-17

Readmission rates following total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) are increasingly used to measure hospital performance. Readmission rates that are not adjusted for race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status, patient risk factors beyond a hospital's control, may not accurately reflect a hospital's performance. In this study, we examined the extent to which risk-adjusting for race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status affected hospital performance in terms of readmission rates following THA and TKA. We calculated 2 sets of risk-adjusted readmission rates by (1) using the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services standard risk-adjustment algorithm that incorporates patient age, sex, comorbidities, and hospital effects and (2) adding race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status to the model. Using data from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, 2011 State Inpatient Databases, we compared the relative performances of 1,194 hospitals across the 2 methods. Addition of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status to the risk-adjustment algorithm resulted in (1) little or no change in the risk-adjusted readmission rates at nearly all hospitals; (2) no change in the designation of the readmission rate as better, worse, or not different from the population mean at >99% of the hospitals; and (3) no change in the excess readmission ratio at >97% of the hospitals. Inclusion of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status in the risk-adjustment algorithm led to a relative-performance change in readmission rates following THA and TKA at <3% of the hospitals. We believe that policymakers and payers should consider this result when deciding whether to include race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status in risk-adjusted THA and TKA readmission rates used for hospital accountability, payment, and public reporting. Prognostic Level III. See instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence. Copyright © 2016 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery

Health-Based Capitation Risk Adjustment in Minnesota Public Health Care Programs

PubMed Central

Gifford, Gregory A.; Edwards, Kevan R.; Knutson, David J.

2004-01-01

This article documents the history and implementation of health-based capitation risk adjustment in Minnesota public health care programs, and identifies key implementation issues. Capitation payments in these programs are risk adjusted using an historical, health plan risk score, based on concurrent risk assessment. Phased implementation of capitation risk adjustment for these programs began January 1, 2000. Minnesota's experience with capitation risk adjustment suggests that: (1) implementation can accelerate encounter data submission, (2) administrative decisions made during implementation can create issues that impact payment model performance, and (3) changes in diagnosis data management during implementation may require changes to the payment model. PMID:25372356

Hospital Variation in Risk-Adjusted Pediatric Sepsis Mortality.

PubMed

Ames, Stefanie G; Davis, Billie S; Angus, Derek C; Carcillo, Joseph A; Kahn, Jeremy M

2018-05-01

With continued attention to pediatric sepsis at both the clinical and policy levels, it is important to understand the quality of hospitals in terms of their pediatric sepsis mortality. We sought to develop a method to evaluate hospital pediatric sepsis performance using 30-day risk-adjusted mortality and to assess hospital variation in risk-adjusted sepsis mortality in a large state-wide sample. Retrospective cohort study using administrative claims data. Acute care hospitals in the state of Pennsylvania from 2011 to 2013. Patients between the ages of 0-19 years admitted to a hospital with sepsis defined using validated International Classification of Diseases, Ninth revision, Clinical Modification, diagnosis and procedure codes. None. During the study period, there were 9,013 pediatric sepsis encounters in 153 hospitals. After excluding repeat visits and hospitals with annual patient volumes too small to reliably assess hospital performance, there were 6,468 unique encounters in 24 hospitals. The overall unadjusted mortality rate was 6.5% (range across all hospitals: 1.5-11.9%). The median number of pediatric sepsis cases per hospital was 67 (range across all hospitals: 30-1,858). A hierarchical logistic regression model for 30-day risk-adjusted mortality controlling for patient age, gender, emergency department admission, infection source, presence of organ dysfunction at admission, and presence of chronic complex conditions showed good discrimination (C-statistic = 0.80) and calibration (slope and intercept of calibration plot: 0.95 and -0.01, respectively). The hospital-specific risk-adjusted mortality rates calculated from this model varied minimally, ranging from 6.0% to 7.4%. Although a risk-adjustment model for 30-day pediatric sepsis mortality had good performance characteristics, the use of risk-adjusted mortality rates as a hospital quality measure in pediatric sepsis is not useful due to the low volume of cases at most hospitals. Novel metrics to

CD4/CD8 ratio, age, and risk of serious non-communicable diseases in HIV-infected adults on antiretroviral therapy

PubMed Central

CASTILHO, Jessica L.; SHEPHERD, Bryan E.; KOETHE, John; TURNER, Megan; BEBAWY, Sally; LOGAN, James; ROGERS, William B.; RAFFANTI, Stephen; STERLING, Timothy R.

2015-01-01

Objective In virologically suppressed HIV-infected adults, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have been associated with immune senescence and low CD4/CD8 lymphocyte ratio. Age differences in the relationship between CD4/CD8 ratio and NCDs have not been described. Design Observational cohort study. Methods We assessed CD4/CD8 ratio and incident NCDs (cardiovascular, cancer, liver, and renal diseases) in HIV-infected adults started on antiretroviral therapy between 1998–2012. Study inclusion began once patients maintained virologic suppression for 12 months (defined as baseline). We examined age and baseline CD4/CD8 ratio and used Cox proportional hazard models to assess baseline CD4/CD8 ratio and NCDs. Results This study included 2,006 patients. Low baseline CD4/CD8 ratio was associated with older age, male sex, and low CD4 lymphocyte counts. In models adjusting for CD4 lymphocyte count, CD4/CD8 ratio was inversely associated with age (p <0.01). Among all patients, 182 had incident NCDs, including 46 with coronary artery disease (CAD) events. CD4/CD8 ratio was inversely associated with risk of CAD events (adjusted HR per 0.1 increase in CD4/CD8 ratio = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.76–0.99, p=0.03). This association was driven by those under age 50 years (adjusted HR 0.83 [0.70–0.97], p = 0.02) versus those over age 50 years (adjusted HR = 0.96 [0.79–1.18], p = 0.71). CD4/CD8 ratio was not significantly associated with incident non-cardiac NCDs. Conclusions Higher CD4/CD8 ratio after one year of HIV virologic suppression was independently predictive of decreased CAD risk, particularly among younger adults. Advanced immune senescence may contribute to CAD events in younger HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy. PMID:26959354

Performance of comorbidity, risk adjustment, and functional status measures in expenditure prediction for patients with diabetes.

PubMed

Maciejewski, Matthew L; Liu, Chuan-Fen; Fihn, Stephan D

2009-01-01

To compare the ability of generic comorbidity and risk adjustment measures, a diabetes-specific measure, and a self-reported functional status measure to explain variation in health care expenditures for individuals with diabetes. This study included a retrospective cohort of 3,092 diabetic veterans participating in a multisite trial. Two comorbidity measures, four risk adjusters, a functional status measure, a diabetes complication count, and baseline expenditures were constructed from administrative and survey data. Outpatient, inpatient, and total expenditure models were estimated using ordinary least squares regression. Adjusted R(2) statistics and predictive ratios were compared across measures to assess overall explanatory power and explanatory power of low- and high-cost subgroups. Administrative data-based risk adjusters performed better than the comorbidity, functional status, and diabetes-specific measures in all expenditure models. The diagnostic cost groups (DCGs) measure had the greatest predictive power overall and for the low- and high-cost subgroups, while the diabetes-specific measure had the lowest predictive power. A model with DCGs and the diabetes-specific measure modestly improved predictive power. Existing generic measures can be useful for diabetes-specific research and policy applications, but more predictive diabetes-specific measures are needed.

45 CFR 153.350 - Risk adjustment data validation standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Risk adjustment data validation standards. 153.350... validation standards. (a) General requirement. The State, or HHS on behalf of the State, must ensure proper implementation of any risk adjustment software and ensure proper validation of a statistically valid sample of...

45 CFR 153.350 - Risk adjustment data validation standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Risk adjustment data validation standards. 153.350... validation standards. (a) General requirement. The State, or HHS on behalf of the State, must ensure proper implementation of any risk adjustment software and ensure proper validation of a statistically valid sample of...

Health plans and selection: formal risk adjustment vs. market design and contracts.

PubMed

Frank, R G; Rosenthal, M B

2001-01-01

In this paper, we explore the demand for risk adjustment by health plans that contract with private employers by considering the conditions under which plans might value risk adjustment. Three factors reduce the value of risk adjustment from the plans' point of view. First, only a relatively small segment of privately insured Americans face a choice of competing health plans. Second, health plans share much of their insurance risk with payers, providers, and reinsurers. Third, de facto experience rating that occurs during the premium negotiation process and management of coverage appear to substitute for risk adjustment. While the current environment has not generated much demand for risk adjustment, we reflect on its future potential.

Risk adjustment alternatives in paying for behavioral health care under Medicaid.

PubMed Central

Ettner, S L; Frank, R G; McGuire, T G; Hermann, R C

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To compare the performance of various risk adjustment models in behavioral health applications such as setting mental health and substance abuse (MH/SA) capitation payments or overall capitation payments for populations including MH/SA users. DATA SOURCES/STUDY DESIGN: The 1991-93 administrative data from the Michigan Medicaid program were used. We compared mean absolute prediction error for several risk adjustment models and simulated the profits and losses that behavioral health care carve outs and integrated health plans would experience under risk adjustment if they enrolled beneficiaries with a history of MH/SA problems. Models included basic demographic adjustment, Adjusted Diagnostic Groups, Hierarchical Condition Categories, and specifications designed for behavioral health. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Differences in predictive ability among risk adjustment models were small and generally insignificant. Specifications based on relatively few MH/SA diagnostic categories did as well as or better than models controlling for additional variables such as medical diagnoses at predicting MH/SA expenditures among adults. Simulation analyses revealed that among both adults and minors considerable scope remained for behavioral health care carve outs to make profits or losses after risk adjustment based on differential enrollment of severely ill patients. Similarly, integrated health plans have strong financial incentives to avoid MH/SA users even after adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Current risk adjustment methodologies do not eliminate the financial incentives for integrated health plans and behavioral health care carve-out plans to avoid high-utilizing patients with psychiatric disorders. PMID:11508640

Dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM charts.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiang; Woodall, William H

2015-11-10

The risk-adjusted Bernoulli cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart developed by Steiner et al. (2000) is an increasingly popular tool for monitoring clinical and surgical performance. In practice, however, the use of a fixed control limit for the chart leads to a quite variable in-control average run length performance for patient populations with different risk score distributions. To overcome this problem, we determine simulation-based dynamic probability control limits (DPCLs) patient-by-patient for the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM charts. By maintaining the probability of a false alarm at a constant level conditional on no false alarm for previous observations, our risk-adjusted CUSUM charts with DPCLs have consistent in-control performance at the desired level with approximately geometrically distributed run lengths. Our simulation results demonstrate that our method does not rely on any information or assumptions about the patients' risk distributions. The use of DPCLs for risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM charts allows each chart to be designed for the corresponding particular sequence of patients for a surgeon or hospital. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Female starlings adjust primary sex ratio in response to aromatic plants in the nest.

PubMed

Polo, Vicente; Veiga, José P; Cordero, Pedro J; Viñuela, Javier; Monaghan, Pat

2004-09-22

Adjustment of offspring sex ratios should be favoured by natural selection when parents are capable of facultatively altering brood sex ratios and of recognizing the circumstances that predict the probable fitness benefit of producing sons and daughters. Although experimental studies have shown that female birds may adjust offspring sex ratios in response to changes in their own condition and in the external appearance of their mate, and male attributes other than his external morphology are also thought to act as signals of male quality, it is not known whether females will respond to changes in such signals, in the absence of any change in the appearance of the male himself. Here, we experimentally manipulated a male courtship display, the green plants carried to the nest by male spotless starlings (Sturnus unicolor), without changing any physical attributes of the male himself, and examined whether this influenced female decisions on offspring sex ratio. We found that in an environment in which female starlings were producing more daughters than sons, experimental enhancement of the green nesting material caused females to significantly increase the number of male eggs produced and thereby removed the female bias. This effect was consistent in 2 years and at two localities. This demonstrates that the green material, whose function has long puzzled biologists, conveys important information to the female and that she facultatively adjusts offspring production accordingly.

Performance of Comorbidity, Risk Adjustment, and Functional Status Measures in Expenditure Prediction for Patients With Diabetes

PubMed Central

Maciejewski, Matthew L.; Liu, Chuan-Fen; Fihn, Stephan D.

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE—To compare the ability of generic comorbidity and risk adjustment measures, a diabetes-specific measure, and a self-reported functional status measure to explain variation in health care expenditures for individuals with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—This study included a retrospective cohort of 3,092 diabetic veterans participating in a multisite trial. Two comorbidity measures, four risk adjusters, a functional status measure, a diabetes complication count, and baseline expenditures were constructed from administrative and survey data. Outpatient, inpatient, and total expenditure models were estimated using ordinary least squares regression. Adjusted R2 statistics and predictive ratios were compared across measures to assess overall explanatory power and explanatory power of low- and high-cost subgroups. RESULTS—Administrative data–based risk adjusters performed better than the comorbidity, functional status, and diabetes-specific measures in all expenditure models. The diagnostic cost groups (DCGs) measure had the greatest predictive power overall and for the low- and high-cost subgroups, while the diabetes-specific measure had the lowest predictive power. A model with DCGs and the diabetes-specific measure modestly improved predictive power. CONCLUSIONS—Existing generic measures can be useful for diabetes-specific research and policy applications, but more predictive diabetes-specific measures are needed. PMID:18945927

Using chronic disease risk factors to adjust Medicare capitation payments

PubMed Central

Schauffler, Helen Halpin; Howland, Jonathan; Cobb, Janet

1992-01-01

This study evaluates the use of risk factors for chronic disease as health status adjusters for Medicare's capitation formula, the average adjusted per capita costs (AAPCC). Risk factor data for the surviving members of the Framingham Study cohort who were examined in 1982-83 were merged with 100 percent Medicare payment data for 1984 and 1985, matching on Social Security number and sex. Seven different AAPCC models were estimated to assess the independent contributions of risk factors and measures of prior utilization and disability in increasing the explanatory power of AAPCC. The findings suggest that inclusion of risk factors for chronic disease as health status adjusters can improve substantially the predictive accuracy of AAPCC. PMID:10124441

Quantifying the impact of time-varying baseline risk adjustment in the self-controlled risk interval design.

PubMed

Li, Lingling; Kulldorff, Martin; Russek-Cohen, Estelle; Kawai, Alison Tse; Hua, Wei

2015-12-01

The self-controlled risk interval design is commonly used to assess the association between an acute exposure and an adverse event of interest, implicitly adjusting for fixed, non-time-varying covariates. Explicit adjustment needs to be made for time-varying covariates, for example, age in young children. It can be performed via either a fixed or random adjustment. The random-adjustment approach can provide valid point and interval estimates but requires access to individual-level data for an unexposed baseline sample. The fixed-adjustment approach does not have this requirement and will provide a valid point estimate but may underestimate the variance. We conducted a comprehensive simulation study to evaluate their performance. We designed the simulation study using empirical data from the Food and Drug Administration-sponsored Mini-Sentinel Post-licensure Rapid Immunization Safety Monitoring Rotavirus Vaccines and Intussusception study in children 5-36.9 weeks of age. The time-varying confounder is age. We considered a variety of design parameters including sample size, relative risk, time-varying baseline risks, and risk interval length. The random-adjustment approach has very good performance in almost all considered settings. The fixed-adjustment approach can be used as a good alternative when the number of events used to estimate the time-varying baseline risks is at least the number of events used to estimate the relative risk, which is almost always the case. We successfully identified settings in which the fixed-adjustment approach can be used as a good alternative and provided guidelines on the selection and implementation of appropriate analyses for the self-controlled risk interval design. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Quantifying the relative risk of sex offenders: risk ratios for static-99R.

PubMed

Hanson, R Karl; Babchishin, Kelly M; Helmus, Leslie; Thornton, David

2013-10-01

Given the widespread use of empirical actuarial risk tools in corrections and forensic mental health, it is important that evaluators and decision makers understand how scores relate to recidivism risk. In the current study, we found strong evidence for a relative risk interpretation of Static-99R scores using 8 samples from Canada, United Kingdom, and Western Europe (N = 4,037 sex offenders). Each increase in Static-99R score was associated with a stable and consistent increase in relative risk (as measured by an odds ratio or hazard ratio of approximately 1.4). Hazard ratios from Cox regression were used to calculate risk ratios that can be reported for Static-99R. We recommend that evaluators consider risk ratios as a useful, nonarbitrary metric for quantifying and communicating risk information. To avoid misinterpretation, however, risk ratios should be presented with recidivism base rates.

Ensemble of trees approaches to risk adjustment for evaluating a hospital's performance.

PubMed

Liu, Yang; Traskin, Mikhail; Lorch, Scott A; George, Edward I; Small, Dylan

2015-03-01

A commonly used method for evaluating a hospital's performance on an outcome is to compare the hospital's observed outcome rate to the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient (case) mix and service. The process of calculating the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient mix and service is called risk adjustment (Iezzoni 1997). Risk adjustment is critical for accurately evaluating and comparing hospitals' performances since we would not want to unfairly penalize a hospital just because it treats sicker patients. The key to risk adjustment is accurately estimating the probability of an Outcome given patient characteristics. For cases with binary outcomes, the method that is commonly used in risk adjustment is logistic regression. In this paper, we consider ensemble of trees methods as alternatives for risk adjustment, including random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). Both random forests and BART are modern machine learning methods that have been shown recently to have excellent performance for prediction of outcomes in many settings. We apply these methods to carry out risk adjustment for the performance of neonatal intensive care units (NICU). We show that these ensemble of trees methods outperform logistic regression in predicting mortality among babies treated in NICU, and provide a superior method of risk adjustment compared to logistic regression.

Do insurers respond to risk adjustment? A long-term, nationwide analysis from Switzerland.

PubMed

von Wyl, Viktor; Beck, Konstantin

2016-03-01

Community rating in social health insurance calls for risk adjustment in order to eliminate incentives for risk selection. Swiss risk adjustment is known to be insufficient, and substantial risk selection incentives remain. This study develops five indicators to monitor residual risk selection. Three indicators target activities of conglomerates of insurers (with the same ownership), which steer enrollees into specific carriers based on applicants' risk profiles. As a proxy for their market power, those indicators estimate the amount of premium-, health care cost-, and risk-adjustment transfer variability that is attributable to conglomerates. Two additional indicators, derived from linear regression, describe the amount of residual cost differences between insurers that are not covered by risk adjustment. All indicators measuring conglomerate-based risk selection activities showed increases between 1996 and 2009, paralleling the establishment of new conglomerates. At their maxima in 2009, the indicator values imply that 56% of the net risk adjustment volume, 34% of premium variability, and 51% cost variability in the market were attributable to conglomerates. From 2010 onwards, all indicators decreased, coinciding with a pre-announced risk adjustment reform implemented in 2012. Likewise, the regression-based indicators suggest that the volume and variance of residual cost differences between insurers that are not equaled out by risk adjustment have decreased markedly since 2009 as a result of the latest reform. Our analysis demonstrates that risk-selection, especially by conglomerates, is a real phenomenon in Switzerland. However, insurers seem to have reduced risk selection activities to optimize their losses and gains from the latest risk adjustment reform.

45 CFR 153.365 - General oversight requirements for State-operated risk adjustment programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... risk adjustment programs. 153.365 Section 153.365 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT State Standards Related to the Risk Adjustment Program...

Risk-adjusted clinical outcomes in patients enrolled in a bloodless program

PubMed Central

Frank, Steven M.; Wick, Elizabeth C.; Dezern, Amy E.; Ness, Paul M.; Wasey, Jack O.; Pippa, Andrew C.; Dackiw, Elizabeth; Resar, Linda M.S.

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND Although clinical outcomes have been reported for patients who do not accept allogeneic blood transfusion (ABT), many previous studies lack a control group, fail to use risk adjustment, and focus exclusively on cardiac surgery. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS We report a risk-adjusted, propensity score–matched, retrospective case-control study of clinical outcomes for inpatients who did not accept ABT (bloodless, n = 294) and those who did accept ABT (control, n = 1157). Multidisciplinary specialized care was rendered to the bloodless patients to conserve blood and optimize clinical outcomes. Differences in hemoglobin (Hb), mortality, five morbid outcomes, and hospital charges and costs were compared. Subgroups of medical and surgical patients were analyzed, and independent predictors of outcome were determined by multivariate analysis. RESULTS Overall, mortality was lower in the bloodless group (0.7%) than in the control group (2.7%; p = 0.046), primarily attributed to the surgical subgroup. After risk adjustment, bloodless care was not an independent predictor of the composite adverse outcome (death or any morbid event; p = 0.91; odds ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval, 0.68–1.53). Discharge Hb concentrations were similar in the bloodless (10.8 ± 2.7 g/dL) and control (10.9 ± 2.3 g/dL) groups (p = 0.42). Total and direct hospital costs were 12% (p = 0.02) and 18% (p = 0.02) less, respectively, in the bloodless patients, a difference attributed to the surgical subgroup. CONCLUSIONS Using appropriate blood conservation measures for patients who do not accept ABT results in similar or better outcomes and is associated with equivalent or lower costs. This specialized care may be beneficial even for those patients who accept ABT. PMID:24942198

Children's Adjustment Following Divorce: Risk and Resilience Perspectives.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelly, Joan B.; Emery, Robert E.

2003-01-01

Reviews the empirical literature on the longer-term adjustment of children of divorce from the perspective of (a) the stressors and elevated risks that divorce presents for children and (b) protective factors associated with better adjustment. The resiliency demonstrated by the majority of children is discussed, as are controversies regarding the…

Inclusion of Highest Glasgow Coma Scale Motor Component Score in Mortality Risk Adjustment for Benchmarking of Trauma Center Performance.

PubMed

Gomez, David; Byrne, James P; Alali, Aziz S; Xiong, Wei; Hoeft, Chris; Neal, Melanie; Subacius, Harris; Nathens, Avery B

2017-12-01

The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) is the most widely used measure of traumatic brain injury (TBI) severity. Currently, the arrival GCS motor component (mGCS) score is used in risk-adjustment models for external benchmarking of mortality. However, there is evidence that the highest mGCS score in the first 24 hours after injury might be a better predictor of death. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of including the highest mGCS score on the performance of risk-adjustment models and subsequent external benchmarking results. Data were derived from the Trauma Quality Improvement Program analytic dataset (January 2014 through March 2015) and were limited to the severe TBI cohort (16 years or older, isolated head injury, GCS ≤8). Risk-adjustment models were created that varied in the mGCS covariates only (initial score, highest score, or both initial and highest mGCS scores). Model performance and fit, as well as external benchmarking results, were compared. There were 6,553 patients with severe TBI across 231 trauma centers included. Initial and highest mGCS scores were different in 47% of patients (n = 3,097). Model performance and fit improved when both initial and highest mGCS scores were included, as evidenced by improved C-statistic, Akaike Information Criterion, and adjusted R-squared values. Three-quarters of centers changed their adjusted odds ratio decile, 2.6% of centers changed outlier status, and 45% of centers exhibited a ≥0.5-SD change in the odds ratio of death after including highest mGCS score in the model. This study supports the concept that additional clinical information has the potential to not only improve the performance of current risk-adjustment models, but can also have a meaningful impact on external benchmarking strategies. Highest mGCS score is a good potential candidate for inclusion in additional models. Copyright © 2017 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A clinical economics workstation for risk-adjusted health care cost management.

PubMed Central

Eisenstein, E. L.; Hales, J. W.

1995-01-01

This paper describes a healthcare cost accounting system which is under development at Duke University Medical Center. Our approach differs from current practice in that this system will dynamically adjust its resource usage estimates to compensate for variations in patient risk levels. This adjustment is made possible by introducing a new cost accounting concept, Risk-Adjusted Quantity (RQ). RQ divides case-level resource usage variances into their risk-based component (resource consumption differences attributable to differences in patient risk levels) and their non-risk-based component (resource consumption differences which cannot be attributed to differences in patient risk levels). Because patient risk level is a factor in estimating resource usage, this system is able to simultaneously address the financial and quality dimensions of case cost management. In effect, cost-effectiveness analysis is incorporated into health care cost management. PMID:8563361

The ratio of serum eicosapentaenoic acid to arachidonic acid and risk of cancer death in a Japanese community: The Hisayama Study.

PubMed

Nagata, Masaharu; Hata, Jun; Hirakawa, Yoichiro; Mukai, Naoko; Yoshida, Daigo; Ohara, Tomoyuki; Kishimoto, Hiro; Kawano, Hiroyuki; Kitazono, Takanari; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Ninomiya, Toshiharu

2017-12-01

Whether the intake of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) or arachidonic acid (AA) affects the risk of cancer remains unclear, and the association between the serum EPA:AA ratio and cancer risk has not been fully evaluated in general populations. A total of 3098 community-dwelling subjects aged ≥40 years were followed up for 9.6 years (2002-2012). The levels of the serum EPA:AA ratio were categorized into quartiles (<0.29, 0.29-0.41, 0.42-0.60, and >0.60). The risk estimates were computed using a Cox proportional hazards model. The same analyses were conducted for the serum docosahexaenoic acid to arachidonic acid (DHA:AA) ratio and individual fatty acid concentrations. During the follow-up period, 121 subjects died of cancer. Age- and sex-adjusted cancer mortality increased with lower serum EPA:AA ratio levels (P trend<0.05). In the multivariable-adjusted analysis, the subjects in the first quartile of the serum EPA:AA ratio had a 1.93-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.15-3.22) greater risk of cancer death than those in the fourth quartile. Lower serum EPA concentrations were marginally associated with higher cancer mortality (P trend<0.11), but the serum DHA or AA concentrations and the serum DHA:AA ratio were not (all P trend>0.37). With regard to site-specific cancers, lower serum EPA:AA ratio was associated with a higher risk of death from liver cancer. However, no such associations were detected for deaths from other cancers. These findings suggest that decreased level of the serum EPA:AA ratio is a significant risk factor for cancer death in the general Japanese population. Copyright © 2017. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.

A longitudinal high-risk study of adolescent anxiety, depression and parent-severity on the developmental course of risk-adjustment.

PubMed

Rawal, Adhip; Riglin, Lucy; Ng-Knight, Terry; Collishaw, Stephan; Thapar, Anita; Rice, Frances

2014-11-01

Adolescence is associated with developments in the reward system and increased rates of emotional disorders. Familial risk for depression may be associated with disruptions in the reward system. However, it is unclear how symptoms of depression and anxiety influence the development of reward-processing over adolescence and whether variation in the severity of parental depression is associated with hyposensitivity to reward in a high-risk sample. We focused on risk-adjustment (adjusting decisions about reward according to the probability of obtaining reward) as this was hypothesized to improve over adolescence. In a one-year longitudinal sample (N = 197) of adolescent offspring of depressed parents, we examined how symptoms of depression and anxiety (generalized anxiety and social anxiety) influenced the development of risk-adjustment. We also examined how parental depression severity influenced adolescent risk-adjustment. Risk-adjustment improved over the course of the study indicating improved adjustment of reward-seeking to shifting contingencies. Depressive symptoms were associated with decreases in risk-adjustment over time while social anxiety symptoms were associated with increases in risk-adjustment over time. Specifically, depression was associated with reductions in reward-seeking at favourable reward probabilities only, whereas social anxiety (but not generalized anxiety) led to reductions in reward-seeking at low reward probabilities only. Parent depression severity was associated with lowered risk-adjustment in offspring and also influenced the longitudinal relationship between risk-adjustment and offspring depression. Anxiety and depression distinctly alter the pattern of longitudinal change in reward-processing. Severity of parent depression was associated with alterations in adolescent offspring reward-processing in a high-risk sample. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of

Belgium: risk adjustment and financial responsibility in a centralised system.

PubMed

Schokkaert, Erik; Van de Voorde, Carine

2003-07-01

Since 1995 Belgian sickness funds are partially financed through a risk adjustment system and are held partially financially responsible for the difference between their actual and their risk-adjusted expenditures. However, they did not get the necessary instruments for exerting a real influence on expenditures and the health insurance market has not been opened for new entrants. At the same time the sickness funds have powerful tools for risk selection, because they also dominate the market for supplementary health insurance. The present risk-adjustment system is based on the results of a regression analysis with aggregate data. The main proclaimed purpose of this system is to guarantee a fair treatment to all the sickness funds. Until now the danger of risk selection has not been taken seriously. Consumer mobility has remained rather low. However, since the degree of financial responsibility is programmed to increase in the near future, the potential profits from cream skimming will increase.

Evaluation of the DAVROS (Development And Validation of Risk-adjusted Outcomes for Systems of emergency care) risk-adjustment model as a quality indicator for healthcare

PubMed Central

Wilson, Richard; Goodacre, Steve W; Klingbajl, Marcin; Kelly, Anne-Maree; Rainer, Tim; Coats, Tim; Holloway, Vikki; Townend, Will; Crane, Steve

2014-01-01

Background and objective Risk-adjusted mortality rates can be used as a quality indicator if it is assumed that the discrepancy between predicted and actual mortality can be attributed to the quality of healthcare (ie, the model has attributional validity). The Development And Validation of Risk-adjusted Outcomes for Systems of emergency care (DAVROS) model predicts 7-day mortality in emergency medical admissions. We aimed to test this assumption by evaluating the attributional validity of the DAVROS risk-adjustment model. Methods We selected cases that had the greatest discrepancy between observed mortality and predicted probability of mortality from seven hospitals involved in validation of the DAVROS risk-adjustment model. Reviewers at each hospital assessed hospital records to determine whether the discrepancy between predicted and actual mortality could be explained by the healthcare provided. Results We received 232/280 (83%) completed review forms relating to 179 unexpected deaths and 53 unexpected survivors. The healthcare system was judged to have potentially contributed to 10/179 (8%) of the unexpected deaths and 26/53 (49%) of the unexpected survivors. Failure of the model to appropriately predict risk was judged to be responsible for 135/179 (75%) of the unexpected deaths and 2/53 (4%) of the unexpected survivors. Some 10/53 (19%) of the unexpected survivors died within a few months of the 7-day period of model prediction. Conclusions We found little evidence that deaths occurring in patients with a low predicted mortality from risk-adjustment could be attributed to the quality of healthcare provided. PMID:23605036

Gaming in risk-adjusted mortality rates: effect of misclassification of risk factors in the benchmarking of cardiac surgery risk-adjusted mortality rates.

PubMed

Siregar, Sabrina; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Versteegh, Michel I M; Noyez, Luc; ter Burg, Willem Jan P P; Bots, Michiel L; van der Graaf, Yolanda; van Herwerden, Lex A

2013-03-01

Upcoding or undercoding of risk factors could affect the benchmarking of risk-adjusted mortality rates. The aim was to investigate the effect of misclassification of risk factors on the benchmarking of mortality rates after cardiac surgery. A prospective cohort was used comprising all adult cardiac surgery patients in all 16 cardiothoracic centers in The Netherlands from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2009. A random effects model, including the logistic European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE) was used to benchmark the in-hospital mortality rates. We simulated upcoding and undercoding of 5 selected variables in the patients from 1 center. These patients were selected randomly (nondifferential misclassification) or by the EuroSCORE (differential misclassification). In the random patients, substantial misclassification was required to affect benchmarking: a 1.8-fold increase in prevalence of the 4 risk factors changed an underperforming center into an average performing one. Upcoding of 1 variable required even more. When patients with the greatest EuroSCORE were upcoded (ie, differential misclassification), a 1.1-fold increase was sufficient: moderate left ventricular function from 14.2% to 15.7%, poor left ventricular function from 8.4% to 9.3%, recent myocardial infarction from 7.9% to 8.6%, and extracardiac arteriopathy from 9.0% to 9.8%. Benchmarking using risk-adjusted mortality rates can be manipulated by misclassification of the EuroSCORE risk factors. Misclassification of random patients or of single variables will have little effect. However, limited upcoding of multiple risk factors in high-risk patients can greatly influence benchmarking. To minimize "gaming," the prevalence of all risk factors should be carefully monitored. Copyright © 2013 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

When methods meet politics: how risk adjustment became part of Medicare managed care.

PubMed

Weissman, Joel S; Wachterman, Melissa; Blumenthal, David

2005-06-01

Health-based risk adjustment has long been touted as key to the success of competitive models of health care. Because it decreases the incentive to enroll only healthy patients in insurance plans, risk adjustment was incorporated into Medicare policy via the Balanced Budget Act of 1997. However, full implementation of risk adjustment was delayed due to clashes with the managed care industry over payment policy, concerns over perverse incentives, and problems of data burden. We review the history of risk adjustment leading up to the Balanced Budget Act and examine the controversies surrounding attempts to stop or delay its implementation during the years that followed. The article provides lessons for the future of health-based risk adjustment and possible alternatives.

45 CFR 800.203 - Medical loss ratio.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Medical loss ratio. 800.203 Section 800.203 Public... PROGRAM Premiums, Rating Factors, Medical Loss Ratios, and Risk Adjustment § 800.203 Medical loss ratio. (a) Required medical loss ratio. An MSPP issuer must attain: (1) The medical loss ratio (MLR...

45 CFR 800.203 - Medical loss ratio.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Medical loss ratio. 800.203 Section 800.203 Public... PROGRAM Premiums, Rating Factors, Medical Loss Ratios, and Risk Adjustment § 800.203 Medical loss ratio. (a) Required medical loss ratio. An MSPP issuer must attain: (1) The medical loss ratio (MLR...

Integrating Risk Adjustment and Enrollee Premiums in Health Plan Payment

PubMed Central

McGuire, Thomas G.; Glazer, Jacob; Newhouse, Joseph P.; Normand, Sharon-Lise; Shi, Julie; Sinaiko, Anna D.; Zuvekas, Samuel

2013-01-01

In two important health policy contexts – private plans in Medicare and the new state-run “Exchanges” created as part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) – plan payments come from two sources: risk-adjusted payments from a Regulator and premiums charged to individual enrollees. This paper derives principles for integrating risk-adjusted payments and premium policy in individual health insurance markets based on fitting total plan payments to health plan costs per person as closely as possible. A least squares regression including both health status and variables used in premiums reveals the weights a Regulator should put on risk adjusters when markets determine premiums. We apply the methods to an Exchange-eligible population drawn from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). PMID:24308878

Differences in case-mix can influence the comparison of standardised mortality ratios even with optimal risk adjustment: an analysis of data from paediatric intensive care.

PubMed

Manktelow, Bradley N; Evans, T Alun; Draper, Elizabeth S

2014-09-01

The publication of clinical outcomes for consultant surgeons in 10 specialties within the NHS has, along with national clinical audits, highlighted the importance of measuring and reporting outcomes with the aim of monitoring quality of care. Such information is vital to be able to identify good and poor practice and to inform patient choice. The need to adequately adjust outcomes for differences in case-mix has long been recognised as being necessary to provide 'like-for-like' comparisons between providers. However, directly comparing values of the standardised mortality ratio (SMR) between different healthcare providers can be misleading even when the risk-adjustment perfectly quantifies the risk of a poor outcome in the reference population. An example is shown from paediatric intensive care. Using observed case-mix differences for 33 paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) in the UK and Ireland for 2009-2011, SMRs were calculated under four different scenarios where, in each scenario, all of the PICUs were performing identically for each patient type. Each scenario represented a clinically plausible difference in outcome from the reference population. Despite the fact that the outcome for any patient was the same no matter which PICU they were to be admitted to, differences between the units were seen when compared using the SMR: scenario 1, 1.07-1.21; scenario 2, 1.00-1.14; scenario 3, 1.04-1.13; scenario 4, 1.00-1.09. Even if two healthcare providers are performing equally for each type of patient, if their patient populations differ in case-mix their SMRs will not necessarily take the same value. Clinical teams and commissioners must always keep in mind this weakness of the SMR when making decisions. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Performance of diagnosis-based risk adjustment measures in a population of sick Australians.

PubMed

Duckett, S J; Agius, P A

2002-12-01

Australia is beginning to explore 'managed competition' as an organising framework for the health care system. This requires setting fair capitation rates, i.e. rates that adjust for the risk profile of covered lives. This paper tests two US-developed risk adjustment approaches using Australian data. Data from the 'co-ordinated care' dataset (which incorporates all service costs of 16,538 participants in a large health service research project conducted in 1996-99) were grouped into homogenous risk categories using risk adjustment 'grouper software'. The grouper products yielded three sets of homogenous categories: Diagnostic Groups and Diagnostic cost Groups. A two-stage analysis of predictive power was used: probability of any service use in the concurrent year, next year and the year after (logistic regression) and, for service users, a regression of logged cost of service use. The independent variables were diagnosis gender, a SES variable and the Age, gender and diagnosis-based risk adjustment measures explain around 40-45% of variation in costs of service use in the current year for untrimmed data (compared with around 15% for age and gender alone). Prediction of subsequent use is much poorer (around 20%). Using more information to assign people to risk categories generally improves prediction. Predictive power of diagnosis-base risk adjusters on this Australian dataset is similar to that found in Low predictive power carries policy risks of cream skimming rather than managing population health and care. Competitive funding models with risk adjustment on prior year experience could reduce system efficiency if implemented with current risk adjustment technology.

Risk adjusting community rated health plan premiums: a survey of risk assessment literature and policy applications.

PubMed

Giacomini, M; Luft, H S; Robinson, J C

1995-01-01

This paper surveys recent health care reform debates and empirical evidence regarding the potential role for risk adjusters in addressing the problem of competitive risk segmentation under capitated financing. We discuss features of health plan markets affecting risk selection, methodological considerations in measuring it, and alternative approaches to financial correction for risk differentials. The appropriate approach to assessing risk differences between health plans depends upon the nature of market risk selection allowed under a given reform scenario. Because per capita costs depend on a health plan's population risk, efficiency, and quality of service, risk adjustment will most strongly promote efficiency in environments with commensurately strong incentives for quality care.

Integrating risk adjustment and enrollee premiums in health plan payment.

PubMed

McGuire, Thomas G; Glazer, Jacob; Newhouse, Joseph P; Normand, Sharon-Lise; Shi, Julie; Sinaiko, Anna D; Zuvekas, Samuel H

2013-12-01

In two important health policy contexts - private plans in Medicare and the new state-run "Exchanges" created as part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) - plan payments come from two sources: risk-adjusted payments from a Regulator and premiums charged to individual enrollees. This paper derives principles for integrating risk-adjusted payments and premium policy in individual health insurance markets based on fitting total plan payments to health plan costs per person as closely as possible. A least squares regression including both health status and variables used in premiums reveals the weights a Regulator should put on risk adjusters when markets determine premiums. We apply the methods to an Exchange-eligible population drawn from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

12 CFR 615.5330 - Minimum surplus ratios.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

...) and weighted on the basis of risk in accordance with § 615.5210. (b) Core surplus. (1) Each institution shall achieve and at all times maintain a ratio of core surplus to the risk-adjusted asset base of... otherwise includible pursuant to § 615.5301(b). (2) Each association shall compute its core surplus ratio by...

Monitoring risk-adjusted outcomes in congenital heart surgery: does the appropriateness of a risk model change with time?

PubMed

Tsang, Victor T; Brown, Katherine L; Synnergren, Mats Johanssen; Kang, Nicholas; de Leval, Marc R; Gallivan, Steve; Utley, Martin

2009-02-01

Risk adjustment of outcomes in pediatric congenital heart surgery is challenging due to the great diversity in diagnoses and procedures. We have previously shown that variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) charts provide an effective graphic display of risk-adjusted outcomes in this specialty. A question arises as to whether the risk model used remains appropriate over time. We used a recently developed graphic technique to evaluate the performance of an existing risk model among those patients at a single center during 2000 to 2003 originally used in model development. We then compared the distribution of predicted risk among these patients with that among patients in 2004 to 2006. Finally, we constructed a VLAD chart of risk-adjusted outcomes for the latter period. Among 1083 patients between April 2000 and March 2003, the risk model performed well at predicted risks above 3%, underestimated mortality at 2% to 3% predicted risk, and overestimated mortality below 2% predicted risk. There was little difference in the distribution of predicted risk among these patients and among 903 patients between June 2004 and October 2006. Outcomes for the more recent period were appreciably better than those expected according to the risk model. This finding cannot be explained by any apparent bias in the risk model combined with changes in case-mix. Risk models can, and hopefully do, become out of date. There is scope for complacency in the risk-adjusted audit if the risk model used is not regularly recalibrated to reflect changing standards and expectations.

Mortality Differences Between Traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage: A Risk-Adjusted Assessment Using Claims Data

PubMed Central

Beveridge, Roy A.; Mendes, Sean M.; Caplan, Arial; Rogstad, Teresa L.; Olson, Vanessa; Williams, Meredith C.; McRae, Jacquelyn M.; Vargas, Stefan

2017-01-01

Medicare Advantage (MA) has grown rapidly since the Affordable Care Act; nearly one-third of Medicare beneficiaries now choose MA. An assessment of the comparative value of the 2 options is confounded by an apparent selection bias favoring MA, as reflected in mortality differences. Previous assessments have been hampered by lack of access to claims diagnosis data for the MA population. An indirect comparison of mortality as an outcome variable was conducted by modeling mortality on a traditional fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare data set, applying the model to an MA data set, and then evaluating the ratio of actual-to-predicted mortality in the MA data set. The mortality model adjusted for clinical conditions and demographic factors. Model development considered the effect of potentially greater coding intensity in the MA population. Further analysis calculated ratios for subpopulations. Predicted, risk-adjusted mortality was lower in the MA population than in FFS Medicare. However, the ratio of actual-to-predicted mortality (0.80) suggested that the individuals in the MA data set were less likely to die than would be predicted had those individuals been enrolled in FFS Medicare. Differences between actual and predicted mortality were particularly pronounced in low income (dual eligibility), nonwhite race, high morbidity, and Health Maintenance Organization (HMO) subgroups. After controlling for baseline clinical risk as represented by claims diagnosis data, mortality differences favoring MA over FFS Medicare persisted, particularly in vulnerable subgroups and HMO plans. These findings suggest that differences in morbidity do not fully explain differences in mortality between the 2 programs. PMID:28578605

Use of Prolonged Travel to Improve Pediatric Risk-Adjustment Models

PubMed Central

Lorch, Scott A; Silber, Jeffrey H; Even-Shoshan, Orit; Millman, Andrea

2009-01-01

Objective To determine whether travel variables could explain previously reported differences in lengths of stay (LOS), readmission, or death at children's hospitals versus other hospital types. Data Source Hospital discharge data from Pennsylvania between 1996 and 1998. Study Design A population cohort of children aged 1–17 years with one of 19 common pediatric conditions was created (N=51,855). Regression models were constructed to determine difference for LOS, readmission, or death between children's hospitals and other types of hospitals after including five types of additional illness severity variables to a traditional risk-adjustment model. Principal Findings With the traditional risk-adjustment model, children traveling longer to children's or rural hospitals had longer adjusted LOS and higher readmission rates. Inclusion of either a geocoded travel time variable or a nongeocoded travel distance variable provided the largest reduction in adjusted LOS, adjusted readmission rates, and adjusted mortality rates for children's hospitals and rural hospitals compared with other types of hospitals. Conclusions Adding a travel variable to traditional severity adjustment models may improve the assessment of an individual hospital's pediatric care by reducing systematic differences between different types of hospitals. PMID:19207591

Risk adjustment and the fear of markets: the case of Belgium.

PubMed

Schokkaert, E; Van de Voorde, C

2000-02-01

In Belgium the management and administration of the compulsory and universal health insurance is left to a limited number of non-governmental non-profit sickness funds. Since 1995 these sickness funds are partially financed in a prospective way. The risk adjustment scheme is based on a regression model to explain medical expenditures for different social groups. Medical supply is taken out of the formula to construct risk-adjusted capitation payments. The risk-adjustment formula still leaves scope for risk selection. At the same time, the sickness funds were not given the instruments to exert a real influence on expenditures and the health insurance market has not been opened for new entrants. As a consequence, Belgium runs the danger of ending up in a situation with little incentives for efficiency and considerable profits from cream skimming.

Appraisal and coping as mediators of the effects of cumulative risk on preadolescent adjustment

PubMed Central

Thompson, Stephanie F.; Lengua, Liliana J.; Garcia, Connie Meza

2016-01-01

This study examined the concurrent and longitudinal relations among cumulative risk, appraisal, coping, and adjustment. Longitudinal path models were tested in a community sample of 316 children in preadolescence to examine hypotheses that threat appraisal and avoidant coping mediate the effects of cumulative risk on child adjustment, whereas positive appraisal and active coping were hypothesized to predict better adjustment independently. Children and their mothers were assessed during in-home interviews at three time points at one-year intervals. Children reported on appraisal and coping strategies. Mothers and children reported on child adjustment problems and positive adjustment. Rank-order changes in appraisal and coping predicted rank-order changes in adjustment. Cumulative risk was concurrently related to higher threat appraisal and avoidant coping at each time point. Threat appraisal and avoidant coping mediated the relations of cumulative risk to rank-order changes in adjustment. There is specificity in the relations of cumulative risk to threat appraisal and avoidant coping, whereas positive appraisal and active coping are independent of risk and operate as individual resource factors. PMID:27110087

An in-depth assessment of a diagnosis-based risk adjustment model based on national health insurance claims: the application of the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Group case-mix system in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chang, Hsien-Yen; Weiner, Jonathan P

2010-01-18

Diagnosis-based risk adjustment is becoming an important issue globally as a result of its implications for payment, high-risk predictive modelling and provider performance assessment. The Taiwanese National Health Insurance (NHI) programme provides universal coverage and maintains a single national computerized claims database, which enables the application of diagnosis-based risk adjustment. However, research regarding risk adjustment is limited. This study aims to examine the performance of the Adjusted Clinical Group (ACG) case-mix system using claims-based diagnosis information from the Taiwanese NHI programme. A random sample of NHI enrollees was selected. Those continuously enrolled in 2002 were included for concurrent analyses (n = 173,234), while those in both 2002 and 2003 were included for prospective analyses (n = 164,562). Health status measures derived from 2002 diagnoses were used to explain the 2002 and 2003 health expenditure. A multivariate linear regression model was adopted after comparing the performance of seven different statistical models. Split-validation was performed in order to avoid overfitting. The performance measures were adjusted R2 and mean absolute prediction error of five types of expenditure at individual level, and predictive ratio of total expenditure at group level. The more comprehensive models performed better when used for explaining resource utilization. Adjusted R2 of total expenditure in concurrent/prospective analyses were 4.2%/4.4% in the demographic model, 15%/10% in the ACGs or ADGs (Aggregated Diagnosis Group) model, and 40%/22% in the models containing EDCs (Expanded Diagnosis Cluster). When predicting expenditure for groups based on expenditure quintiles, all models underpredicted the highest expenditure group and overpredicted the four other groups. For groups based on morbidity burden, the ACGs model had the best performance overall. Given the widespread availability of claims data and the superior explanatory

Sperm competition risk drives rapid ejaculate adjustments mediated by seminal fluid

PubMed Central

Steeves, Tammy E; Gemmell, Neil J; Rosengrave, Patrice C

2017-01-01

In many species, males can make rapid adjustments to ejaculate performance in response to sperm competition risk; however, the mechanisms behind these changes are not understood. Here, we manipulate male social status in an externally fertilising fish, chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), and find that in less than 48 hr, males can upregulate sperm velocity when faced with an increased risk of sperm competition. Using a series of in vitro sperm manipulation and competition experiments, we show that rapid changes in sperm velocity are mediated by seminal fluid and the effect of seminal fluid on sperm velocity directly impacts paternity share and therefore reproductive success. These combined findings, completely consistent with sperm competition theory, provide unequivocal evidence that sperm competition risk drives plastic adjustment of ejaculate quality, that seminal fluid harbours the mechanism for the rapid adjustment of sperm velocity and that fitness benefits accrue to males from such adjustment. PMID:29084621

Sperm competition risk drives rapid ejaculate adjustments mediated by seminal fluid.

PubMed

Bartlett, Michael J; Steeves, Tammy E; Gemmell, Neil J; Rosengrave, Patrice C

2017-10-31

In many species, males can make rapid adjustments to ejaculate performance in response to sperm competition risk; however, the mechanisms behind these changes are not understood. Here, we manipulate male social status in an externally fertilising fish, chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), and find that in less than 48 hr, males can upregulate sperm velocity when faced with an increased risk of sperm competition. Using a series of in vitro sperm manipulation and competition experiments, we show that rapid changes in sperm velocity are mediated by seminal fluid and the effect of seminal fluid on sperm velocity directly impacts paternity share and therefore reproductive success. These combined findings, completely consistent with sperm competition theory, provide unequivocal evidence that sperm competition risk drives plastic adjustment of ejaculate quality, that seminal fluid harbours the mechanism for the rapid adjustment of sperm velocity and that fitness benefits accrue to males from such adjustment.

Risk adjustment in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program: a comparison of logistic versus hierarchical modeling.

PubMed

Cohen, Mark E; Dimick, Justin B; Bilimoria, Karl Y; Ko, Clifford Y; Richards, Karen; Hall, Bruce Lee

2009-12-01

Although logistic regression has commonly been used to adjust for risk differences in patient and case mix to permit quality comparisons across hospitals, hierarchical modeling has been advocated as the preferred methodology, because it accounts for clustering of patients within hospitals. It is unclear whether hierarchical models would yield important differences in quality assessments compared with logistic models when applied to American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) data. Our objective was to evaluate differences in logistic versus hierarchical modeling for identifying hospitals with outlying outcomes in the ACS-NSQIP. Data from ACS-NSQIP patients who underwent colorectal operations in 2008 at hospitals that reported at least 100 operations were used to generate logistic and hierarchical prediction models for 30-day morbidity and mortality. Differences in risk-adjusted performance (ratio of observed-to-expected events) and outlier detections from the two models were compared. Logistic and hierarchical models identified the same 25 hospitals as morbidity outliers (14 low and 11 high outliers), but the hierarchical model identified 2 additional high outliers. Both models identified the same eight hospitals as mortality outliers (five low and three high outliers). The values of observed-to-expected events ratios and p values from the two models were highly correlated. Results were similar when data were permitted from hospitals providing < 100 patients. When applied to ACS-NSQIP data, logistic and hierarchical models provided nearly identical results with respect to identification of hospitals' observed-to-expected events ratio outliers. As hierarchical models are prone to implementation problems, logistic regression will remain an accurate and efficient method for performing risk adjustment of hospital quality comparisons.

The Pennsylvania Trauma Outcomes Study Risk-Adjusted Mortality Model: Results of a Statewide Benchmarking Program

PubMed Central

WIEBE, DOUGLAS J.; HOLENA, DANIEL N.; DELGADO, M. KIT; McWILLIAMS, NATHAN; ALTENBURG, JULIET; CARR, BRENDAN G.

2018-01-01

Trauma centers need objective feedback on performance to inform quality improvement efforts. The Trauma Quality Improvement Program recently published recommended methodology for case mix adjustment and benchmarking performance. We tested the feasibility of applying this methodology to develop risk-adjusted mortality models for a statewide trauma system. We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients ≥16 years old at Pennsylvania trauma centers from 2011 to 2013 (n = 100,278). Our main outcome measure was observed-to-expected mortality ratios (overall and within blunt, penetrating, multisystem, isolated head, and geriatric subgroups). Patient demographic variables, physiology, mechanism of injury, transfer status, injury severity, and pre-existing conditions were included as predictor variables. The statistical model had excellent discrimination (area under the curve = 0.94). Funnel plots of observed-to-expected identified five centers with lower than expected mortality and two centers with higher than expected mortality. No centers were outliers for management of penetrating trauma, but five centers had lower and three had higher than expected mortality for blunt trauma. It is feasible to use Trauma Quality Improvement Program methodology to develop risk-adjusted models for statewide trauma systems. Even with smaller numbers of trauma centers that are available in national datasets, it is possible to identify high and low outliers in performance. PMID:28541852

The Pennsylvania Trauma Outcomes Study Risk-Adjusted Mortality Model: Results of a Statewide Benchmarking Program.

PubMed

Wiebe, Douglas J; Holena, Daniel N; Delgado, M Kit; McWilliams, Nathan; Altenburg, Juliet; Carr, Brendan G

2017-05-01

Trauma centers need objective feedback on performance to inform quality improvement efforts. The Trauma Quality Improvement Program recently published recommended methodology for case mix adjustment and benchmarking performance. We tested the feasibility of applying this methodology to develop risk-adjusted mortality models for a statewide trauma system. We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients ≥16 years old at Pennsylvania trauma centers from 2011 to 2013 (n = 100,278). Our main outcome measure was observed-to-expected mortality ratios (overall and within blunt, penetrating, multisystem, isolated head, and geriatric subgroups). Patient demographic variables, physiology, mechanism of injury, transfer status, injury severity, and pre-existing conditions were included as predictor variables. The statistical model had excellent discrimination (area under the curve = 0.94). Funnel plots of observed-to-expected identified five centers with lower than expected mortality and two centers with higher than expected mortality. No centers were outliers for management of penetrating trauma, but five centers had lower and three had higher than expected mortality for blunt trauma. It is feasible to use Trauma Quality Improvement Program methodology to develop risk-adjusted models for statewide trauma systems. Even with smaller numbers of trauma centers that are available in national datasets, it is possible to identify high and low outliers in performance.

A Review on Methods of Risk Adjustment and their Use in Integrated Healthcare Systems

PubMed Central

Juhnke, Christin; Bethge, Susanne

2016-01-01

Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The objective of this review was to obtain an overview of existing models of risk adjustment as well as on crucial weights in risk adjustment. Moreover, the predictive performance of selected methods in international healthcare systems should be analysed. Theory and methods: A comprehensive, systematic literature review on methods of risk adjustment was conducted in terms of an encompassing, interdisciplinary examination of the related disciplines. Results: In general, several distinctions can be made: in terms of risk horizons, in terms of risk factors or in terms of the combination of indicators included. Within these, another differentiation by three levels seems reasonable: methods based on mortality risks, methods based on morbidity risks as well as those based on information on (self-reported) health status. Conclusions and discussion: After the final examination of different methods of risk adjustment it was shown that the methodology used to adjust risks varies. The models differ greatly in terms of their included morbidity indicators. The findings of this review can be used in the evaluation of integrated healthcare delivery systems and can be integrated into quality- and patient-oriented reimbursement of care providers in the design of healthcare contracts. PMID:28316544

Incorporating Comorbidity Within Risk Adjustment for UK Pediatric Cardiac Surgery.

PubMed

Brown, Katherine L; Rogers, Libby; Barron, David J; Tsang, Victor; Anderson, David; Tibby, Shane; Witter, Thomas; Stickley, John; Crowe, Sonya; English, Kate; Franklin, Rodney C; Pagel, Christina

2017-07-01

When considering early survival rates after pediatric cardiac surgery it is essential to adjust for risk linked to case complexity. An important but previously less well understood component of case mix complexity is comorbidity. The National Congenital Heart Disease Audit data representing all pediatric cardiac surgery procedures undertaken in the United Kingdom and Ireland between 2009 and 2014 was used to develop and test groupings for comorbidity and additional non-procedure-based risk factors within a risk adjustment model for 30-day mortality. A mixture of expert consensus based opinion and empiric statistical analyses were used to define and test the new comorbidity groups. The study dataset consisted of 21,838 pediatric cardiac surgical procedure episodes in 18,834 patients with 539 deaths (raw 30-day mortality rate, 2.5%). In addition to surgical procedure type, primary cardiac diagnosis, univentricular status, age, weight, procedure type (bypass, nonbypass, or hybrid), and era, the new risk factor groups of non-Down congenital anomalies, acquired comorbidities, increased severity of illness indicators (eg, preoperative mechanical ventilation or circulatory support) and additional cardiac risk factors (eg, heart muscle conditions and raised pulmonary arterial pressure) all independently increased the risk of operative mortality. In an era of low mortality rates across a wide range of operations, non-procedure-based risk factors form a vital element of risk adjustment and their presence leads to wide variations in the predicted risk of a given operation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tamoxifen for breast cancer risk reduction: impact of alternative approaches to quality-of-life adjustment on cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Melnikow, Joy; Birch, Stephen; Slee, Christina; McCarthy, Theodore J; Helms, L Jay; Kuppermann, Miriam

2008-09-01

In cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), the effects of health-care interventions on multiple health dimensions typically require consideration of both quantity and quality of life. To explore the impact of alternative approaches to quality-of-life adjustment using patient preferences (utilities) on the outcome of a CEA on use of tamoxifen for breast cancer risk reduction. A state transition Markov model tracked hypothetical cohorts of women who did or did not take 5 years of tamoxifen for breast cancer risk reduction. Incremental quality-adjusted effectiveness and cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for models including and excluding a utility adjustment for menopausal symptoms were compared with each other and to a global utility model. Two hundred fifty-five women aged 50 and over with estimated 5-year breast cancer risk >or=1.67% participated in utility assessment interviews. Standard gamble utilities were assessed for specified tamoxifen-related health outcomes, current health, and for a global assessment of possible outcomes of tamoxifen use. Inclusion of a utility for menopausal symptoms in the outcome-specific models substantially increased the ICER; at the threshold 5-year breast cancer risk of 1.67%, tamoxifen was dominated. When a global utility for tamoxifen was used in place of outcome-specific utilities, tamoxifen was dominated under all circumstances. CEAs may be profoundly affected by the types of outcomes considered for quality-of-life adjustment and how these outcomes are grouped for utility assessment. Comparisons of ICERs across analyses must consider effects of different approaches to using utilities for quality-of-life adjustment.

Use of the Posterior/Anterior Corneal Curvature Radii Ratio to Improve the Accuracy of Intraocular Lens Power Calculation: Eom's Adjustment Method.

PubMed

Kim, Mingue; Eom, Youngsub; Lee, Hwa; Suh, Young-Woo; Song, Jong Suk; Kim, Hyo Myung

2018-02-01

To evaluate the accuracy of IOL power calculation using adjusted corneal power according to the posterior/anterior corneal curvature radii ratio. Nine hundred twenty-eight eyes from 928 reference subjects and 158 eyes from 158 cataract patients who underwent phacoemulsification surgery were enrolled. Adjusted corneal power of cataract patients was calculated using the fictitious refractive index that was obtained from the geometric mean posterior/anterior corneal curvature radii ratio of reference subjects and adjusted anterior and predicted posterior corneal curvature radii from conventional keratometry (K) using the posterior/anterior corneal curvature radii ratio. The median absolute error (MedAE) based on the adjusted corneal power was compared with that based on conventional K in the Haigis and SRK/T formulae. The geometric mean posterior/anterior corneal curvature radii ratio was 0.808, and the fictitious refractive index of the cornea for a single Scheimpflug camera was 1.3275. The mean difference between adjusted corneal power and conventional K was 0.05 diopter (D). The MedAE based on adjusted corneal power (0.31 D in the Haigis formula and 0.32 D in the SRK/T formula) was significantly smaller than that based on conventional K (0.41 D and 0.40 D, respectively; P < 0.001 and P < 0.001, respectively). The percentage of eyes with refractive prediction error within ± 0.50 D calculated using adjusted corneal power (74.7%) was significantly greater than that obtained using conventional K (62.7%) in the Haigis formula (P = 0.029). IOL power calculation using adjusted corneal power according to the posterior/anterior corneal curvature radii ratio provided more accurate refractive outcomes than calculation using conventional K.

77 FR 21775 - Risk Adjustment Meeting-May 7, 2012 and May 8, 2012

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-11

... notice announces a meeting on the risk adjustment program, which is open to the public. The purpose of... plan average actuarial risk, calculation of payments and charges, data collection approach, and the..., calculation of payments and charges, data collection approach, and the schedule for running risk adjustment...

Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act; standards related to reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment. Final rule.

PubMed

2012-03-23

This final rule implements standards for States related to reinsurance and risk adjustment, and for health insurance issuers related to reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment consistent with title I of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act as amended by the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010, referred to collectively as the Affordable Care Act. These programs will mitigate the impact of potential adverse selection and stabilize premiums in the individual and small group markets as insurance reforms and the Affordable Insurance Exchanges ("Exchanges") are implemented, starting in 2014. The transitional State-based reinsurance program serves to reduce uncertainty by sharing risk in the individual market through making payments for high claims costs for enrollees. The temporary Federally administered risk corridors program serves to protect against uncertainty in rate setting by qualified health plans sharing risk in losses and gains with the Federal government. The permanent State-based risk adjustment program provides payments to health insurance issuers that disproportionately attract high-risk populations (such as individuals with chronic conditions).

45 CFR 153.360 - Application of risk adjustment to the small group market.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Application of risk adjustment to the small group market. 153.360 Section 153.360 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER...

45 CFR 153.360 - Application of risk adjustment to the small group market.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Application of risk adjustment to the small group market. 153.360 Section 153.360 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER...

45 CFR 153.630 - Data validation requirements when HHS operates risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Data validation requirements when HHS operates... Program § 153.630 Data validation requirements when HHS operates risk adjustment. (a) General requirement... performed on its risk adjustment data as described in this section. (b) Initial validation audit. (1) An...

45 CFR 153.630 - Data validation requirements when HHS operates risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Data validation requirements when HHS operates... Program § 153.630 Data validation requirements when HHS operates risk adjustment. (a) General requirement... performed on its risk adjustment data as described in this section. (b) Initial validation audit. (1) An...

Dietary Sodium to Potassium Ratio and Risk of Stroke in a Multiethnic Urban Population: The Northern Manhattan Study.

PubMed

Willey, Joshua; Gardener, Hannah; Cespedes, Sandino; Cheung, Ying K; Sacco, Ralph L; Elkind, Mitchell S V

2017-11-01

There is growing evidence that increased dietary sodium (Na) intake increases the risk of vascular diseases, including stroke, at least in part via an increase in blood pressure. Higher dietary potassium (K), seen with increased intake of fruits and vegetables, is associated with lower blood pressure. The goal of this study was to determine the association of a dietary Na:K with risk of stroke in a multiethnic urban population. Stroke-free participants from the Northern Manhattan Study, a population-based cohort study of stroke incidence, were followed-up for incident stroke. Baseline food frequency questionnaires were analyzed for Na and K intake. We estimated the hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association of Na:K with incident total stroke using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Among 2570 participants with dietary data (mean age, 69±10 years; 64% women; 21% white; 55% Hispanic; 24% black), the mean Na:K ratio was 1.22±0.43. Over a mean follow-up of 12 years, there were 274 strokes. In adjusted models, a higher Na:K ratio was associated with increased risk for stroke (hazard ratio, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-2.1) and specifically ischemic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-2.1). Na:K intake is an independent predictor of stroke risk. Further studies are required to understand the joint effect of Na and K intake on risk of cardiovascular disease. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Willingness to pay for a quality-adjusted life year: an evaluation of attitudes towards risk and preferences.

PubMed

Martín-Fernández, Jesus; Polentinos-Castro, Elena; del Cura-González, Ma Isabel; Ariza-Cardiel, Gloria; Abraira, Victor; Gil-LaCruz, Ana Isabel; García-Pérez, Sonia

2014-07-03

This paper examines the Willingness to Pay (WTP) for a quality-adjusted life year (QALY) expressed by people who attended the healthcare system as well as the association of attitude towards risk and other personal characteristics with their response. Health-state preferences, measured by EuroQol (EQ-5D-3L), were combined with WTP for recovering a perfect health state. WTP was assessed using close-ended, iterative bidding, contingent valuation method. Data on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, as well as usage of health services by the subjects were collected. The attitude towards risk was evaluated by collecting risky behaviors data, by the subject's self-evaluation, and through lottery games. Six hundred and sixty two subjects participated and 449 stated a utility inferior to 1. WTP/QALY ratios varied significantly when payments with personal money (mean €10,119; median €673) or through taxes (mean €28,187; median €915) were suggested. Family income, area income, higher education level, greater use of healthcare services, and the number of co-inhabitants were associated with greater WTP/QALY ratios. Age and female gender were associated with lower WTP/QALY ratios. Risk inclination was independently associated with a greater WTP/QALY when "out of pocket" payments were suggested. Clear discrepancies were demonstrated between linearity and neutrality towards risk assumptions and experimental results. WTP/QALY ratios vary noticeably based on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the subject, but also on their attitude towards risk. Knowing the expression of preferences by patients from this outcome measurement can be of interest for health service planning.

A risk-adjusted definition of biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Morgan, T M; Meng, M V; Cooperberg, M R; Cowan, J E; Weinberg, V; Carroll, P R; Lin, D W

2014-06-01

To determine whether a variable definition of biochemical recurrence (BCR) based on clincopathologic features facilitates early identification of patients likely to suffer from disease progression. The definition of BCR after radical prostatectomy (RP) bears important implications for patient counseling and management; however, there remains a significant debate regarding the appropriate definition. The study cohort consisted of 3619 men who underwent RP for localized prostate cancer from 1989 to 2007, with data abstracted from the Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavor (CaPSURE) registry. Patients were stratified into three risk groups according to Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment post-Surgical (CAPRA-S) score. Three single threshold PSA cut-points for BCR were evaluated (PSA > or =0.05, > or =0.2 and > or =0.4 ng ml(-1)) as well as a variable cut-point defined by risk group. After reaching the cut-points, patients were followed for further PSA progression. The proportion of patients with BCR differed by cut-point and risk group, ranging from 7 to 37% (low risk), 22 to 58% (intermediate risk) and 60 to 86% (high risk). The positive-predictive value (PPV) for predicting further PSA progression was 49% for the PSA > or =0.05 ng ml(-1), 62% for the PSA > or =0.2 ng ml(-1), 65% for the PSA > or =0.4 ng ml(-1) and 68% for the risk-adjusted definition. Five-year progression-free survival was 39% for the risk-adjusted definition compared with 45-52% for the other definitions of BCR. These data suggest that a variable definition of BCR determined by clinicopathologic risk may improve the identification of early recurrence after RP without increasing the overdiagnosis of BCR. By using a risk-adjusted BCR definition, clinicians can better predict future PSA progression and more appropriately counsel patients regarding salvage therapies.

HMO penetration, competition, and risk-adjusted hospital mortality.

PubMed

Mukamel, D B; Zwanziger, J; Tomaszewski, K J

2001-12-01

HMOs have been shown to have an effect on the care provided directly to their enrollees. They may also influence the care provided to individuals in fee-for-service plans through a spill-over effect. The objective of this study was to investigate the associations among HMO market penetration, HMO and hospital competition, and the quality of care received by Medicare fee-for-service patients measured by risk-adjusted hospital mortality rates. The 1990 data for 1,927 hospitals in 134 metropolitan statistical areas (with five or more hospitals) included Medicare fee-for-service risk-adjusted mortality rates from the Medicare Hospital Information Reports, hospital characteristics from the American Hospital Association annual survey, and HMO market penetration and competition calculated from InterStudy and Group Health Association of America data. Statistical regression techniques were used to identify the associations between HMO market penetration, competition, and risk-adjusted mortality, controlling for other hospital characteristics and region. Higher HMO market penetration and to a lesser degree increased HMO competition were associated with better mortality outcomes for fee-for-service Medicare enrollees. Competition between hospitals did not exhibit a significant association. HMOs may have a spill-over effect on quality of care received by individuals enrolled in fee-for-service plans. These findings may be explained by a positive effect on local practice styles or a preferential selection by HMOs for areas with better hospital care.

HMO penetration, competition, and risk-adjusted hospital mortality.

PubMed Central

Mukamel, D B; Zwanziger, J; Tomaszewski, K J

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVE: HMOs have been shown to have an effect on the care provided directly to their enrollees. They may also influence the care provided to individuals in fee-for-service plans through a spill-over effect. The objective of this study was to investigate the associations among HMO market penetration, HMO and hospital competition, and the quality of care received by Medicare fee-for-service patients measured by risk-adjusted hospital mortality rates. DATA SOURCES: The 1990 data for 1,927 hospitals in 134 metropolitan statistical areas (with five or more hospitals) included Medicare fee-for-service risk-adjusted mortality rates from the Medicare Hospital Information Reports, hospital characteristics from the American Hospital Association annual survey, and HMO market penetration and competition calculated from InterStudy and Group Health Association of America data. STUDY DESIGN: Statistical regression techniques were used to identify the associations between HMO market penetration, competition, and risk-adjusted mortality, controlling for other hospital characteristics and region. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Higher HMO market penetration and to a lesser degree increased HMO competition were associated with better mortality outcomes for fee-for-service Medicare enrollees. Competition between hospitals did not exhibit a significant association. CONCLUSIONS: HMOs may have a spill-over effect on quality of care received by individuals enrolled in fee-for-service plans. These findings may be explained by a positive effect on local practice styles or a preferential selection by HMOs for areas with better hospital care. PMID:11775665

Regression Trees Identify Relevant Interactions: Can This Improve the Predictive Performance of Risk Adjustment?

PubMed

Buchner, Florian; Wasem, Jürgen; Schillo, Sonja

2017-01-01

Risk equalization formulas have been refined since their introduction about two decades ago. Because of the complexity and the abundance of possible interactions between the variables used, hardly any interactions are considered. A regression tree is used to systematically search for interactions, a methodologically new approach in risk equalization. Analyses are based on a data set of nearly 2.9 million individuals from a major German social health insurer. A two-step approach is applied: In the first step a regression tree is built on the basis of the learning data set. Terminal nodes characterized by more than one morbidity-group-split represent interaction effects of different morbidity groups. In the second step the 'traditional' weighted least squares regression equation is expanded by adding interaction terms for all interactions detected by the tree, and regression coefficients are recalculated. The resulting risk adjustment formula shows an improvement in the adjusted R 2 from 25.43% to 25.81% on the evaluation data set. Predictive ratios are calculated for subgroups affected by the interactions. The R 2 improvement detected is only marginal. According to the sample level performance measures used, not involving a considerable number of morbidity interactions forms no relevant loss in accuracy. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The HHS-HCC Risk Adjustment Model for Individual and Small Group Markets under the Affordable Care Act

PubMed Central

Kautter, John; Pope, Gregory C; Ingber, Melvin; Freeman, Sara; Patterson, Lindsey; Cohen, Michael; Keenan, Patricia

2014-01-01

Beginning in 2014, individuals and small businesses are able to purchase private health insurance through competitive Marketplaces. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) provides for a program of risk adjustment in the individual and small group markets in 2014 as Marketplaces are implemented and new market reforms take effect. The purpose of risk adjustment is to lessen or eliminate the influence of risk selection on the premiums that plans charge. The risk adjustment methodology includes the risk adjustment model and the risk transfer formula. This article is the second of three in this issue of the Review that describe the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) risk adjustment methodology and focuses on the risk adjustment model. In our first companion article, we discuss the key issues and choices in developing the methodology. In this article, we present the risk adjustment model, which is named the HHS-Hierarchical Condition Categories (HHS-HCC) risk adjustment model. We first summarize the HHS-HCC diagnostic classification, which is the key element of the risk adjustment model. Then the data and methods, results, and evaluation of the risk adjustment model are presented. Fifteen separate models are developed. For each age group (adult, child, and infant), a model is developed for each cost sharing level (platinum, gold, silver, and bronze metal levels, as well as catastrophic plans). Evaluation of the risk adjustment models shows good predictive accuracy, both for individuals and for groups. Lastly, this article provides examples of how the model output is used to calculate risk scores, which are an input into the risk transfer formula. Our third companion paper describes the risk transfer formula. PMID:25360387

Anesthesiologist- and System-Related Risk Factors for Risk-Adjusted Pediatric Anesthesia-Related Cardiac Arrest.

PubMed

Zgleszewski, Steven E; Graham, Dionne A; Hickey, Paul R; Brustowicz, Robert M; Odegard, Kirsten C; Koka, Rahul; Seefelder, Christian; Navedo, Andres T; Randolph, Adrienne G

2016-02-01

Pediatric anesthesia-related cardiac arrest (ARCA) is an uncommon but potentially preventable adverse event. Infants and children with more severe underlying disease are at highest risk. We aimed to identify system- and anesthesiologist-related risk factors for ARCA. We analyzed a prospectively collected patient cohort data set of anesthetics administered from 2000 to 2011 to children at a large tertiary pediatric hospital. Pre-procedure systemic disease level was characterized by ASA physical status (ASA-PS). Two reviewers independently reviewed cardiac arrests and categorized their anesthesia relatedness. Factors associated with ARCA in the univariate analyses were identified for reevaluation after adjustment for patient age and ASA-PS. Cardiac arrest occurred in 142 of 276,209 anesthetics (incidence 5.1/10,000 anesthetics); 72 (2.6/10,000 anesthetics) were classified as anesthesia-related. In the univariate analyses, risk of ARCA was much higher in cardiac patients and for anesthesiologists with lower annual caseload and/or fewer annual days delivering anesthetics (all P < 0.001). Anesthesiologists with the highest academic rank and years of experience also had higher odds of ARCA (P = 0.02). After risk adjustment for ASA-PS ≥ III and age ≤ 6 months, however, the association with lower annual days delivering anesthetics remained (P = 0.03), but the other factors were no longer significant. Case-mix explained most associations between higher risk of pediatric ARCA and anesthesiologist-related variables at our institution, but the association with fewer annual days delivering anesthetics remained. Our findings highlight the need for rigorous adjustment for patient risk factors in anesthesia patient safety studies.

Limiting options: Sex ratios, incarceration rates and sexual risk behavior among people on probation and parole

PubMed Central

Green, Traci C.; Pouget, Enrique R.; Harrington, Magdalena; Taxman, Faye S.; Rhodes, Anne G.; O’Connell, Daniel; Martin, Steven S.; Prendergast, Michael; Friedmann, Peter D.

2012-01-01

Background To investigate how incarceration may affect risk of acquiring HIV and other sexually transmitted infections, we tested associations of ex-offenders’ sexual risk behavior with the male-female sex ratio and the male incarceration rate. Methods Longitudinal data from 1287 drug-involved persons on probation and parole as part of the Criminal Justice Drug Abuse Treatment Studies were matched by county of residence with population factors, and stratified by race/ethnicity and gender. Generalized estimating equations assessed associations of having unprotected sex with a partner who had HIV risk factors, and having more than 1 sex partner in the past month. Results Among non-Hispanic Black men and women, low sex ratios were associated with greater risk of having unprotected sex with a risky partner (Adjusted relative risk (ARR) = 1.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.29, 2.42; ARR = 2.48, 95% CI = 1.31, 4.73, respectively). Among non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White women, low sex ratios were associated with having more than 1 sex partner (ARR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.02, 3.94; ARR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.06, 2.75, respectively). High incarceration rates were associated with greater risk of having a risky partner for all men (non-Hispanic Black: ARR= 2.14, 95% CI=1.39, 3.30; non-Hispanic White: ARR= 1.39, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.85; Hispanic: ARR = 3.99, 95% CI =1.55, 10.26) and having more than one partner among non-Hispanic White men (ARR= 1.92, 95% CI = 1.40, 2.64). Conclusions Low sex ratios and high incarceration rates may influence the number and risk characteristics of sex partners of ex-offenders. HIV-prevention policies and programs for ex-offenders could be improved by addressing structural barriers to safer sexual behavior. PMID:22592827

Diagnostic Risk Adjustment for Medicaid: The Disability Payment System

PubMed Central

Kronick, Richard; Dreyfus, Tony; Lee, Lora; Zhou, Zhiyuan

1996-01-01

This article describes a system of diagnostic categories that Medicaid programs can use for adjusting capitation payments to health plans that enroll people with disability. Medicaid claims from Colorado, Michigan, Missouri, New York, and Ohio are analyzed to demonstrate that the greater predictability of costs among people with disabilities makes risk adjustment more feasible than for a general population and more critical to creating health systems for people with disability. The application of our diagnostic categories to State claims data is described, including estimated effects on subsequent-year costs of various diagnoses. The challenges of implementing adjustment by diagnosis are explored. PMID:10172665

Ants avoid superinfections by performing risk-adjusted sanitary care.

PubMed

Konrad, Matthias; Pull, Christopher D; Metzler, Sina; Seif, Katharina; Naderlinger, Elisabeth; Grasse, Anna V; Cremer, Sylvia

2018-03-13

Being cared for when sick is a benefit of sociality that can reduce disease and improve survival of group members. However, individuals providing care risk contracting infectious diseases themselves. If they contract a low pathogen dose, they may develop low-level infections that do not cause disease but still affect host immunity by either decreasing or increasing the host's vulnerability to subsequent infections. Caring for contagious individuals can thus significantly alter the future disease susceptibility of caregivers. Using ants and their fungal pathogens as a model system, we tested if the altered disease susceptibility of experienced caregivers, in turn, affects their expression of sanitary care behavior. We found that low-level infections contracted during sanitary care had protective or neutral effects on secondary exposure to the same (homologous) pathogen but consistently caused high mortality on superinfection with a different (heterologous) pathogen. In response to this risk, the ants selectively adjusted the expression of their sanitary care. Specifically, the ants performed less grooming and more antimicrobial disinfection when caring for nestmates contaminated with heterologous pathogens compared with homologous ones. By modulating the components of sanitary care in this way the ants acquired less infectious particles of the heterologous pathogens, resulting in reduced superinfection. The performance of risk-adjusted sanitary care reveals the remarkable capacity of ants to react to changes in their disease susceptibility, according to their own infection history and to flexibly adjust collective care to individual risk.

Diagnosis-Based Risk Adjustment for Medicare Capitation Payments

PubMed Central

Ellis, Randall P.; Pope, Gregory C.; Iezzoni, Lisa I.; Ayanian, John Z.; Bates, David W.; Burstin, Helen; Ash, Arlene S.

1996-01-01

Using 1991-92 data for a 5-percent Medicare sample, we develop, estimate, and evaluate risk-adjustment models that utilize diagnostic information from both inpatient and ambulatory claims to adjust payments for aged and disabled Medicare enrollees. Hierarchical coexisting conditions (HCC) models achieve greater explanatory power than diagnostic cost group (DCG) models by taking account of multiple coexisting medical conditions. Prospective models predict average costs of individuals with chronic conditions nearly as well as concurrent models. All models predict medical costs far more accurately than the current health maintenance organization (HMO) payment formula. PMID:10172666

The Effect of Adding Comorbidities to Current Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Central-Line-Associated Bloodstream Infection Risk-Adjustment Methodology.

PubMed

Jackson, Sarah S; Leekha, Surbhi; Magder, Laurence S; Pineles, Lisa; Anderson, Deverick J; Trick, William E; Woeltje, Keith F; Kaye, Keith S; Stafford, Kristen; Thom, Kerri; Lowe, Timothy J; Harris, Anthony D

2017-09-01

BACKGROUND Risk adjustment is needed to fairly compare central-line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI) rates between hospitals. Until 2017, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) methodology adjusted CLABSI rates only by type of intensive care unit (ICU). The 2017 CDC models also adjust for hospital size and medical school affiliation. We hypothesized that risk adjustment would be improved by including patient demographics and comorbidities from electronically available hospital discharge codes. METHODS Using a cohort design across 22 hospitals, we analyzed data from ICU patients admitted between January 2012 and December 2013. Demographics and International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) discharge codes were obtained for each patient, and CLABSIs were identified by trained infection preventionists. Models adjusting only for ICU type and for ICU type plus patient case mix were built and compared using discrimination and standardized infection ratio (SIR). Hospitals were ranked by SIR for each model to examine and compare the changes in rank. RESULTS Overall, 85,849 ICU patients were analyzed and 162 (0.2%) developed CLABSI. The significant variables added to the ICU model were coagulopathy, paralysis, renal failure, malnutrition, and age. The C statistics were 0.55 (95% CI, 0.51-0.59) for the ICU-type model and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.60-0.69) for the ICU-type plus patient case-mix model. When the hospitals were ranked by adjusted SIRs, 10 hospitals (45%) changed rank when comorbidity was added to the ICU-type model. CONCLUSIONS Our risk-adjustment model for CLABSI using electronically available comorbidities demonstrated better discrimination than did the CDC model. The CDC should strongly consider comorbidity-based risk adjustment to more accurately compare CLABSI rates across hospitals. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2017;38:1019-1024.

On-demand Reporting of Risk-adjusted and Smoothed Rates for Quality Profiling in ACS NSQIP.

PubMed

Cohen, Mark E; Liu, Yaoming; Huffman, Kristopher M; Ko, Clifford Y; Hall, Bruce L

2016-12-01

Surgical quality improvement depends on hospitals having accurate and timely information about comparative performance. Profiling accuracy is improved by risk adjustment and shrinkage adjustment to stabilize estimates. These adjustments are included in ACS NSQIP reports, where hospital odds ratios (OR) are estimated using hierarchical models built on contemporaneous data. However, the timeliness of feedback remains an issue. We describe an alternative, nonhierarchical approach, which yields risk- and shrinkage-adjusted rates. In contrast to our "Traditional" NSQIP method, this approach uses preexisting equations, built on historical data, which permits hospitals to have near immediate access to profiling results. We compared our traditional method to this new "on-demand" approach with respect to outlier determinations, kappa statistics, and correlations between logged OR and standardized rates, for 12 models (4 surgical groups by 3 outcomes). When both methods used the same contemporaneous data, there were similar numbers of hospital outliers and correlations between logged OR and standardized rates were high. However, larger differences were observed when the effect of contemporaneous versus historical data was added to differences in statistical methodology. The on-demand, nonhierarchical approach provides results similar to the traditional hierarchical method and offers immediacy, an "over-time" perspective, application to a broader range of models and data subsets, and reporting of more easily understood rates. Although the nonhierarchical method results are now available "on-demand" in a web-based application, the hierarchical approach has advantages, which support its continued periodic publication as the gold standard for hospital profiling in the program.

Willingness to pay for a quality-adjusted life year: an evaluation of attitudes towards risk and preferences

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background This paper examines the Willingness to Pay (WTP) for a quality-adjusted life year (QALY) expressed by people who attended the healthcare system as well as the association of attitude towards risk and other personal characteristics with their response. Methods Health-state preferences, measured by EuroQol (EQ-5D-3L), were combined with WTP for recovering a perfect health state. WTP was assessed using close-ended, iterative bidding, contingent valuation method. Data on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, as well as usage of health services by the subjects were collected. The attitude towards risk was evaluated by collecting risky behaviors data, by the subject’s self-evaluation, and through lottery games. Results Six hundred and sixty two subjects participated and 449 stated a utility inferior to 1. WTP/QALY ratios varied significantly when payments with personal money (mean €10,119; median €673) or through taxes (mean €28,187; median €915) were suggested. Family income, area income, higher education level, greater use of healthcare services, and the number of co-inhabitants were associated with greater WTP/QALY ratios. Age and female gender were associated with lower WTP/QALY ratios. Risk inclination was independently associated with a greater WTP/QALY when “out of pocket” payments were suggested. Clear discrepancies were demonstrated between linearity and neutrality towards risk assumptions and experimental results. Conclusions WTP/QALY ratios vary noticeably based on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the subject, but also on their attitude towards risk. Knowing the expression of preferences by patients from this outcome measurement can be of interest for health service planning. PMID:24989615

Needs for further improvement: risk adjustment in the German health insurance system.

PubMed

Buchner, Florian; Wasem, Jürgen

2003-07-01

The German risk adjustment mechanism is used only within the public system. It was introduced in two steps, 1994 and 1995. Because of the income-related contribution, which the insured pay directly to their sickness fund, income of the insured is equalized by the mechanism and causes the biggest part of the payments among the sickness funds. On the expenditure side age, gender, disability and entitlement for sickness allowances are used as risk adjusters. The mechanism is retrospective, calculating average costs for each of the 670 risk cells defined by the risk adjusters and using these "standardized expenditures" as a base for the payment a single sickness fund gets because of its risk structure. There do still exist incentives for risk selection. The experience shows that mostly the young and healthy are willing to change sickness funds motivated by lower contribution rates. This can be used and is used for self-selection. Another cause of risk selection is regional differences. The central suggestion of an expertise on behalf of the German Ministry of Health on experiences and improvement proposals is the change to a direct modeling of morbidity.

An Adjusted Likelihood Ratio Approach Analysing Distribution of Food Products to Assist the Investigation of Foodborne Outbreaks

PubMed Central

Norström, Madelaine; Kristoffersen, Anja Bråthen; Görlach, Franziska Sophie; Nygård, Karin; Hopp, Petter

2015-01-01

In order to facilitate foodborne outbreak investigations there is a need to improve the methods for identifying the food products that should be sampled for laboratory analysis. The aim of this study was to examine the applicability of a likelihood ratio approach previously developed on simulated data, to real outbreak data. We used human case and food product distribution data from the Norwegian enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli outbreak in 2006. The approach was adjusted to include time, space smoothing and to handle missing or misclassified information. The performance of the adjusted likelihood ratio approach on the data originating from the HUS outbreak and control data indicates that the adjusted approach is promising and indicates that the adjusted approach could be a useful tool to assist and facilitate the investigation of food borne outbreaks in the future if good traceability are available and implemented in the distribution chain. However, the approach needs to be further validated on other outbreak data and also including other food products than meat products in order to make a more general conclusion of the applicability of the developed approach. PMID:26237468

Comparative coronary risks of apixaban, rivaroxaban and dabigatran: a meta-analysis and adjusted indirect comparison

PubMed Central

Loke, Yoon K; Pradhan, Shiva; Yeong, Jessica Ka-yan; Kwok, Chun Shing

2014-01-01

Aims There are concerns regarding increased risk of acute coronary syndrome with dabigatran. We aimed to assess whether alternative treatment options such as rivaroxaban or apixaban carry a similar risk as compared with dabigatran. Methods We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE for randomized controlled trials of apixaban, dabigatran or rivaroxaban against control (placebo, heparin or vitamin K antagonist). We pooled odds ratios (OR) for adverse coronary events (acute coronary syndrome or myocardial infarction) using fixed effect meta-analysis and assessed heterogeneity with I2. We conducted adjusted indirect comparisons to compare risk of adverse coronary events with apixaban or rivaroxaban vs. dabigatran. Results Twenty-seven randomized controlled trials met the inclusion criteria. Dabigatran was associated with a significantly increased risk of adverse coronary events in pooled analysis of nine trials (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.14, 1.86). There was no signal for coronary risk with apixaban from nine trials (pooled OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.78, 1.03) or rivaroxaban from nine trials (pooled OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.72, 0.93). Overall, adjusted indirect comparison suggested that both apixaban (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.44, 0.85) and rivaroxaban (OR 0.54; 95% CI 0.39, 0.76) were associated with lower coronary risk than dabigatran. Restricting the indirect comparison to a vitamin K antagonist as a common control, yielded similar findings, OR 0.57 (95% CI 0.39, 0.85) for apixaban vs. dabigatran and 0.53 (95% CI 0.37, 0.77) for rivaroxaban vs. dabigatran. Conclusions There are significant differences in the comparative safety of apixaban, rivaroxaban and dabigatran with regards to acute coronary adverse events. PMID:24617578

Risk adjustment as basis for rational benchmarking: the example of colon carcinoma.

PubMed

Ptok, Henry; Marusch, Frank; Schmidt, Uwe; Gastinger, Ingo; Wenisch, Hubertus J C; Lippert, Hans

2011-01-01

The results of resection of colorectal carcinoma can vary greatly from one hospital to another. However, this does not necessarily reflect differences in the quality of treatment. The purpose of this study was to compare various tools for the risk-adjusted assessment of treatment results after resection of colorectal carcinoma within the context of hospital benchmarking. On the basis of a data pool provided by a multicentric observation study of patients with colon cancer, the postoperative in-hospital mortality rates at two high-volume hospitals ("A" and "B") were compared. After univariate comparison, risk-adjusted comparison of postoperative mortality was performed by logistic regression analysis (LReA), propensity-score analysis (PScA), and the CR-POSSUM score. Postoperative complications were compared by LReA and PScA. Although postoperative mortality differed significantly (P = 0.041) in univariate comparison of hospitals A and B (2.9% vs. 6.4%), no significant difference was found by LReA or PScA. Similarly, the observed mortality at these did not differ significantly from the mortality estimated by the CR-POSSUM score (hospital A, 2.9%/4.9%, P = 0.298; hospital B, 6.4%/6.5%, P = 1.000). Significant differences were seen in risk-adjusted comparison of most postoperative complications (by both LReA and PScA), but there were no differences in the rates of relaparotomy or anastomotic leakage that required surgery. For the hard outcome variable "postoperative mortality," none of the three risk adjustment procedures showed any difference between the hospitals. The CR-POSSUM score can be regarded as the most practicable tool for risk-adjusted comparison of the outcome of colon-carcinoma resection in clinical benchmarking.

Dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiang; Loda, Justin B; Woodall, William H

2017-07-20

For a patient who has survived a surgery, there could be several levels of recovery. Thus, it is reasonable to consider more than two outcomes when monitoring surgical outcome quality. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart based on multiresponses has been developed for monitoring a surgical process with three or more outcomes. However, there is a significant effect of varying risk distributions on the in-control performance of the chart when constant control limits are applied. To overcome this disadvantage, we apply the dynamic probability control limits to the risk-adjusted CUSUM charts for multiresponses. The simulation results demonstrate that the in-control performance of the charts with dynamic probability control limits can be controlled for different patient populations because these limits are determined for each specific sequence of patients. Thus, the use of dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses allows each chart to be designed for the corresponding patient sequence of a surgeon or a hospital and therefore does not require estimating or monitoring the patients' risk distribution. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Three methods to construct predictive models using logistic regression and likelihood ratios to facilitate adjustment for pretest probability give similar results.

PubMed

Chan, Siew Foong; Deeks, Jonathan J; Macaskill, Petra; Irwig, Les

2008-01-01

To compare three predictive models based on logistic regression to estimate adjusted likelihood ratios allowing for interdependency between diagnostic variables (tests). This study was a review of the theoretical basis, assumptions, and limitations of published models; and a statistical extension of methods and application to a case study of the diagnosis of obstructive airways disease based on history and clinical examination. Albert's method includes an offset term to estimate an adjusted likelihood ratio for combinations of tests. Spiegelhalter and Knill-Jones method uses the unadjusted likelihood ratio for each test as a predictor and computes shrinkage factors to allow for interdependence. Knottnerus' method differs from the other methods because it requires sequencing of tests, which limits its application to situations where there are few tests and substantial data. Although parameter estimates differed between the models, predicted "posttest" probabilities were generally similar. Construction of predictive models using logistic regression is preferred to the independence Bayes' approach when it is important to adjust for dependency of tests errors. Methods to estimate adjusted likelihood ratios from predictive models should be considered in preference to a standard logistic regression model to facilitate ease of interpretation and application. Albert's method provides the most straightforward approach.

Exact one-sided confidence bounds for the risk ratio in 2 x 2 tables with structural zero.

PubMed

Lloyd, Chris J; Moldovan, Max V

2007-12-01

This paper examines exact one-sided confidence limits for the risk ratio in a 2 x 2 table with structural zero. Starting with four approximate lower and upper limits, we adjust each using the algorithm of Buehler (1957) to arrive at lower (upper) limits that have exact coverage properties and are as large (small) as possible subject to coverage, as well as an ordering, constraint. Different Buehler limits are compared by their mean size, since all are exact in their coverage. Buehler limits based on the signed root likelihood ratio statistic are found to have the best performance and recommended for practical use. (c) 2007 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim

Enhancing the Accuracy of Platelet to Lymphocyte Ratio after Adjustment for Large Platelet Count: A Pilot Study in Breast Cancer Patients

PubMed Central

Seretis, Charalampos; Seretis, Fotios; Lagoudianakis, Emmanuel; Politou, Marianna; Gemenetzis, George; Salemis, Nikolaos S.

2012-01-01

Background. The objective of our study is to investigate the potential effect of adjusting preoperative platelet to lymphocyte ratio, an emerging biomarker of survival in cancer patients, for the fraction of large platelets. Methods. A total of 79 patients with breast neoplasias, 44 with fibroadenomas, and 35 with invasive ductal carcinoma were included in the study. Both conventional platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and the adjusted marker, large platelet to lymphocyte ratio (LPLR), were correlated with laboratory and histopathological parameters of the study sample. Results. LPLR elevation was significantly correlated with the presence of malignancy, advanced tumor stage, metastatic spread in the axillary nodes and HER2/neu overexpression, while PLR was only correlated with the number of infiltrated lymph nodes. Conclusions. This is the first study evaluating the effect of adjustment for large platelet count on improving PLR accuracy, when correlated with the basic independent markers of survival in a sample of breast cancer patients. Further studies are needed in order to assess the possibility of applying our adjustment as standard in terms of predicting survival rates in cancer. PMID:23304480

Enhancing the accuracy of platelet to lymphocyte ratio after adjustment for large platelet count: a pilot study in breast cancer patients.

PubMed

Seretis, Charalampos; Seretis, Fotios; Lagoudianakis, Emmanuel; Politou, Marianna; Gemenetzis, George; Salemis, Nikolaos S

2012-01-01

Background. The objective of our study is to investigate the potential effect of adjusting preoperative platelet to lymphocyte ratio, an emerging biomarker of survival in cancer patients, for the fraction of large platelets. Methods. A total of 79 patients with breast neoplasias, 44 with fibroadenomas, and 35 with invasive ductal carcinoma were included in the study. Both conventional platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and the adjusted marker, large platelet to lymphocyte ratio (LPLR), were correlated with laboratory and histopathological parameters of the study sample. Results. LPLR elevation was significantly correlated with the presence of malignancy, advanced tumor stage, metastatic spread in the axillary nodes and HER2/neu overexpression, while PLR was only correlated with the number of infiltrated lymph nodes. Conclusions. This is the first study evaluating the effect of adjustment for large platelet count on improving PLR accuracy, when correlated with the basic independent markers of survival in a sample of breast cancer patients. Further studies are needed in order to assess the possibility of applying our adjustment as standard in terms of predicting survival rates in cancer.

48 CFR 215.404-71-3 - Contract type risk and working capital adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... provisions for performance-based payments, do not compute a working capital adjustment. (d) Evaluation... working capital adjustment. 215.404-71-3 Section 215.404-71-3 Federal Acquisition Regulations System... CONTRACTING BY NEGOTIATION Contract Pricing 215.404-71-3 Contract type risk and working capital adjustment. (a...

Health-based risk adjustment: is inpatient and outpatient diagnostic information sufficient?

PubMed

Lamers, L M

Adequate risk adjustment is critical to the success of market-oriented health care reforms in many countries. Currently used risk adjusters based on demographic and diagnostic cost groups (DCGs) do not reflect expected costs accurately. This study examines the simultaneous predictive accuracy of inpatient and outpatient morbidity measures and prior costs. DCGs, pharmacy cost groups (PCGs), and prior year's costs improve the predictive accuracy of the demographic model substantially. DCGs and PCGs seem complementary in their ability to predict future costs. However, this study shows that the combination of DCGs and PCGs still leaves room for cream skimming.

Alternative Payment Models Should Risk-Adjust for Conversion Total Hip Arthroplasty: A Propensity Score-Matched Study.

PubMed

McLawhorn, Alexander S; Schairer, William W; Schwarzkopf, Ran; Halsey, David A; Iorio, Richard; Padgett, Douglas E

2017-12-06

For Medicare beneficiaries, hospital reimbursement for nonrevision hip arthroplasty is anchored to either diagnosis-related group code 469 or 470. Under alternative payment models, reimbursement for care episodes is not further risk-adjusted. This study's purpose was to compare outcomes of primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) vs conversion THA to explore the rationale for risk adjustment for conversion procedures. All primary and conversion THAs from 2007 to 2014, excluding acute hip fractures and cancer patients, were identified in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. Conversion and primary THA patients were matched 1:1 using propensity scores, based on preoperative covariates. Multivariable logistic regressions evaluated associations between conversion THA and 30-day outcomes. A total of 2018 conversions were matched to 2018 primaries. There were no differences in preoperative covariates. Conversions had longer operative times (148 vs 95 minutes, P < .001), more transfusions (37% vs 17%, P < .001), and longer length of stay (4.4 vs 3.1 days, P < .001). Conversion THA had increased odds of complications (odds ratio [OR] 1.75; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.37-2.24), deep infection (OR 4.21; 95% CI 1.72-10.28), discharge to inpatient care (OR 1.52; 95% CI 1.34-1.72), and death (OR 2.39; 95% CI 1.04-5.47). Readmission odds were similar. Compared with primary THA, conversion THA is associated with more complications, longer length of stay, and increased discharge to continued inpatient care, implying greater resource utilization for conversion patients. As reimbursement models shift toward bundled payment paradigms, conversion THA appears to be a procedure for which risk adjustment is appropriate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adjustment of Children Born to Teenage Mothers: The Contribution of Risk and Protective Factors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dubow, Eric F.; Luster, Tom

1990-01-01

Examined contribution of risk and protective factors in adjustment of 721 children, age 8-15, born to teenage mothers. Results showed that exposure to increasing number of risk factors (poverty, urban residence, mother's self-esteem) was associated with greater vulnerability to adjustment problems, while protective factors (intelligence,…

Risk Adjustment for Medicare Total Knee Arthroplasty Bundled Payments.

PubMed

Clement, R Carter; Derman, Peter B; Kheir, Michael M; Soo, Adrianne E; Flynn, David N; Levin, L Scott; Fleisher, Lee

2016-09-01

The use of bundled payments is growing because of their potential to align providers and hospitals on the goal of cost reduction. However, such gain sharing could incentivize providers to "cherry-pick" more profitable patients. Risk adjustment can prevent this unintended consequence, yet most bundling programs include minimal adjustment techniques. This study was conducted to determine how bundled payments for total knee arthroplasty (TKA) should be adjusted for risk. The authors collected financial data for all Medicare patients (age≥65 years) undergoing primary unilateral TKA at an academic center over a period of 2 years (n=941). Multivariate regression was performed to assess the effect of patient factors on the costs of acute inpatient care, including unplanned 30-day readmissions. This analysis mirrors a bundling model used in the Medicare Bundled Payments for Care Improvement initiative. Increased age, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) class, and the presence of a Medicare Major Complications/Comorbid Conditions (MCC) modifier (typically representing major complications) were associated with increased costs (regression coefficients, $57 per year; $729 per ASA class beyond I; and $3122 for patients meeting MCC criteria; P=.003, P=.001, and P<.001, respectively). Differences in costs were not associated with body mass index, sex, or race. If the results are generalizable, Medicare bundled payments for TKA encompassing acute inpatient care should be adjusted upward by the stated amounts for older patients, those with elevated ASA class, and patients meeting MCC criteria. This is likely an underestimate for many bundling models, including the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement program, incorporating varying degrees of postacute care. Failure to adjust for factors that affect costs may create adverse incentives, creating barriers to care for certain patient populations. [Orthopedics. 2016; 39(5):e911-e916.]. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

Risk selection and risk adjustment: improving insurance in the individual and small group markets.

PubMed

Baicker, Katherine; Dow, William H

2009-01-01

Insurance market reforms face the key challenge of addressing the threat that risk selection poses to the availability, of stable, high-value insurance policies that provide long-term risk protection. Many of the strategies in use today fail to address this breakdown in risk pooling, and some even exacerbate it. Flexible risk adjustment schemes are a promising avenue for promoting market stability and limiting insurer cream-skimming, potentially providing greater benefits at lower cost. Reforms intended to increase insurance coverage and the value of care delivered will be much more effective if implemented in conjunction with policies that address these fundamental selection issues.

Antipsychotics and mortality: adjusting for mortality risk scores to address confounding by terminal illness.

PubMed

Park, Yoonyoung; Franklin, Jessica M; Schneeweiss, Sebastian; Levin, Raisa; Crystal, Stephen; Gerhard, Tobias; Huybrechts, Krista F

2015-03-01

To determine whether adjustment for prognostic indices specifically developed for nursing home (NH) populations affect the magnitude of previously observed associations between mortality and conventional and atypical antipsychotics. Cohort study. A merged data set of Medicaid, Medicare, Minimum Data Set (MDS), Online Survey Certification and Reporting system, and National Death Index for 2001 to 2005. Dual-eligible individuals aged 65 and older who initiated antipsychotic treatment in a NH (N=75,445). Three mortality risk scores (Mortality Risk Index Score, Revised MDS Mortality Risk Index, Advanced Dementia Prognostic Tool) were derived for each participant using baseline MDS data, and their performance was assessed using c-statistics and goodness-of-fit tests. The effect of adjusting for these indices in addition to propensity scores (PSs) on the association between antipsychotic medication and mortality was evaluated using Cox models with and without adjustment for risk scores. Each risk score showed moderate discrimination for 6-month mortality, with c-statistics ranging from 0.61 to 0.63. There was no evidence of lack of fit. Imbalances in risk scores between conventional and atypical antipsychotic users, suggesting potential confounding, were much lower within PS deciles than the imbalances in the full cohort. Accounting for each score in the Cox model did not change the relative risk estimates: 2.24 with PS-only adjustment versus 2.20, 2.20, and 2.22 after further adjustment for the three risk scores. Although causality cannot be proven based on nonrandomized studies, this study adds to the body of evidence rejecting explanations other than causality for the greater mortality risk associated with conventional antipsychotics than with atypical antipsychotics. © 2015, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2015, The American Geriatrics Society.

Inappropriate use of payment weights to risk adjust readmission rates.

PubMed

Fuller, Richard L; Goldfield, Norbert I; Averill, Richard F; Hughes, John S

2012-01-01

In this article, the authors demonstrate that the use of relative weights, as incorporated within the National Quality Forum-endorsed PacifiCare readmission measure, is inappropriate for risk adjusting rates of hospital readmission.

Dietary sodium-to-potassium ratio as a risk factor for stroke, cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in Japan: the NIPPON DATA80 cohort study

PubMed Central

Okayama, Akira; Okuda, Nagako; Miura, Katsuyuki; Okamura, Tomonori; Hayakawa, Takehito; Akasaka, Hiroshi; Ohnishi, Hirofumi; Saitoh, Shigeyuki; Arai, Yusuke; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Takashima, Naoyuki; Yoshita, Katsushi; Fujiyoshi, Akira; Zaid, Maryam; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Ueshima, Hirotsugu

2016-01-01

Objectives To evaluate the impact of dietary sodium and potassium (Na–K) ratio on mortality from total and subtypes of stroke, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all causes, using 24-year follow-up data of a representative sample of the Japanese population. Setting Prospective cohort study. Participants In the 1980 National Cardiovascular Survey, participants were followed for 24 years (NIPPON DATA80, National Integrated Project for Prospective Observation of Non-communicable Disease And its Trends in the Aged). Men and women aged 30–79 years without hypertensive treatment, history of stroke or acute myocardial infarction (n=8283) were divided into quintiles according to dietary Na–K ratio assessed by a 3-day weighing dietary record at baseline. Age-adjusted and multivariable-adjusted HRs were calculated using the Mantel-Haenszel method and Cox proportional hazards model. Primary outcome measures Mortality from total and subtypes of stroke, CVD and all causes. Results A total of 1938 deaths from all causes were observed over 176 926 person-years. Na–K ratio was significantly and non-linearly related to mortality from all stroke (p=0.002), CVD (p=0.005) and total mortality (p=0.001). For stroke subtypes, mortality from haemorrhagic stroke was positively related to Na–K ratio (p=0.024). Similar relationships were observed for men and women. The observed relationships remained significant after adjustment for other risk factors. Quadratic non-linear multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CI) in the highest quintile versus the lowest quintile of Na–K ratio were 1.42 (1.07 to 1.90) for ischaemic stroke, 1.57 (1.05 to 2.34) for haemorrhagic stroke, 1.43 (1.17 to 1.76) for all stroke, 1.39 (1.20 to 1.61) for CVD and 1.16 (1.06 to 1.27) for all-cause mortality. Conclusions Dietary Na–K ratio assessed by a 3-day weighing dietary record was a significant risk factor for mortality from haemorrhagic stroke, all stroke, CVD and all causes among a Japanese population

Real time monitoring of risk-adjusted paediatric cardiac surgery outcomes using variable life-adjusted display: implementation in three UK centres

PubMed Central

Pagel, Christina; Utley, Martin; Crowe, Sonya; Witter, Thomas; Anderson, David; Samson, Ray; McLean, Andrew; Banks, Victoria; Tsang, Victor; Brown, Katherine

2013-01-01

Objective To implement routine in-house monitoring of risk-adjusted 30-day mortality following paediatric cardiac surgery. Design Collaborative monitoring software development and implementation in three specialist centres. Patients and methods Analyses incorporated 2 years of data routinely audited by the National Institute of Cardiac Outcomes Research (NICOR). Exclusion criteria were patients over 16 or undergoing non-cardiac or only catheter procedures. We applied the partial risk adjustment in surgery (PRAiS) risk model for death within 30 days following surgery and generated variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) charts for each centre. These were shared with each clinical team and feedback was sought. Results Participating centres were Great Ormond Street Hospital, Evelina Children's Hospital and The Royal Hospital for Sick Children in Glasgow. Data captured all procedures performed between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2011. This incorporated 2490 30-day episodes of care, 66 of which were associated with a death within 30 days.The VLAD charts generated for each centre displayed trends in outcomes benchmarked to recent national outcomes. All centres ended the 2-year period within four deaths from what would be expected. The VLAD charts were shared in multidisciplinary meetings and clinical teams reported that they were a useful addition to existing quality assurance initiatives. Each centre is continuing to use the prototype software to monitor their in-house surgical outcomes. Conclusions Timely and routine monitoring of risk-adjusted mortality following paediatric cardiac surgery is feasible. Close liaison with hospital data managers as well as clinicians was crucial to the success of the project. PMID:23564473

Estimation of the Standardized Risk Difference and Ratio in a Competing Risks Framework: Application to Injection Drug Use and Progression to AIDS After Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy

PubMed Central

Cole, Stephen R.; Lau, Bryan; Eron, Joseph J.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Kitahata, Mari M.; Martin, Jeffrey N.; Mathews, William C.; Mugavero, Michael J.; Cole, Stephen R.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Lau, Bryan; Eron, Joseph J.; Kitahata, Mari M.; Martin, Jeffrey N.; Mathews, William C.; Mugavero, Michael J.

2015-01-01

There are few published examples of absolute risk estimated from epidemiologic data subject to censoring and competing risks with adjustment for multiple confounders. We present an example estimating the effect of injection drug use on 6-year risk of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) after initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy between 1998 and 2012 in an 8-site US cohort study with death before AIDS as a competing risk. We estimate the risk standardized to the total study sample by combining inverse probability weights with the cumulative incidence function; estimates of precision are obtained by bootstrap. In 7,182 patients (83% male, 33% African American, median age of 38 years), we observed 6-year standardized AIDS risks of 16.75% among 1,143 injection drug users and 12.08% among 6,039 nonusers, yielding a standardized risk difference of 4.68 (95% confidence interval: 1.27, 8.08) and a standardized risk ratio of 1.39 (95% confidence interval: 1.12, 1.72). Results may be sensitive to the assumptions of exposure-version irrelevance, no measurement bias, and no unmeasured confounding. These limitations suggest that results be replicated with refined measurements of injection drug use. Nevertheless, estimating the standardized risk difference and ratio is straightforward, and injection drug use appears to increase the risk of AIDS. PMID:24966220

A balanced hazard ratio for risk group evaluation from survival data.

PubMed

Branders, Samuel; Dupont, Pierre

2015-07-30

Common clinical studies assess the quality of prognostic factors, such as gene expression signatures, clinical variables or environmental factors, and cluster patients into various risk groups. Typical examples include cancer clinical trials where patients are clustered into high or low risk groups. Whenever applied to survival data analysis, such groups are intended to represent patients with similar survival odds and to select the most appropriate therapy accordingly. The relevance of such risk groups, and of the related prognostic factors, is typically assessed through the computation of a hazard ratio. We first stress three limitations of assessing risk groups through the hazard ratio: (1) it may promote the definition of arbitrarily unbalanced risk groups; (2) an apparently optimal group hazard ratio can be largely inconsistent with the p-value commonly associated to it; and (3) some marginal changes between risk group proportions may lead to highly different hazard ratio values. Those issues could lead to inappropriate comparisons between various prognostic factors. Next, we propose the balanced hazard ratio to solve those issues. This new performance metric keeps an intuitive interpretation and is as simple to compute. We also show how the balanced hazard ratio leads to a natural cut-off choice to define risk groups from continuous risk scores. The proposed methodology is validated through controlled experiments for which a prescribed cut-off value is defined by design. Further results are also reported on several cancer prognosis studies, and the proposed methodology could be applied more generally to assess the quality of any prognostic markers. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Identifying Military and Combat-Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment: Comparing High and Low Risk Military Families and Civilian Families

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-01

Award Number: W81XWH-12-2-0034 TITLE: Identifying Military and Combat-Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment: Comparing High and Low Risk...2. REPORT TYPE Final 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 15May2012 - 31Aug2016 Identifying Military and Combat-Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment...deployment and has a child between the age of 3 and 7 and comparison groups of civilain single parent families (N=200) and civilian dual parent

Use of risk-adjusted CUSUM charts to monitor 30-day mortality in Danish hospitals.

PubMed

Rasmussen, Thomas Bøjer; Ulrichsen, Sinna Pilgaard; Nørgaard, Mette

2018-01-01

Monitoring hospital outcomes and clinical processes as a measure of clinical performance is an integral part of modern health care. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart is a frequently used sequential analysis technique that can be implemented to monitor a wide range of different types of outcomes. The aim of this study was to describe how risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on population-based nationwide medical registers were used to monitor 30-day mortality in Danish hospitals and to give an example on how alarms of increased hospital mortality from the charts can guide further in-depth analyses. We used routinely collected administrative data from the Danish National Patient Registry and the Danish Civil Registration System to create risk-adjusted CUSUM charts. We monitored 30-day mortality after hospital admission with one of 77 selected diagnoses in 24 hospital units in Denmark in 2015. The charts were set to detect a 50% increase in 30-day mortality, and control limits were determined by simulations. Among 1,085,576 hospital admissions, 441,352 admissions had one of the 77 selected diagnoses as their primary diagnosis and were included in the risk-adjusted CUSUM charts. The charts yielded a total of eight alarms of increased mortality. The median of the hospitals' estimated average time to detect a 50% increase in 30-day mortality was 50 days (interquartile interval, 43;54). In the selected example of an alarm, descriptive analyses indicated performance problems with 30-day mortality following hip fracture surgery and diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The presented implementation of risk-adjusted CUSUM charts can detect significant increases in 30-day mortality within 2 months, on average, in most Danish hospitals. Together with descriptive analyses, it was possible to use an alarm from a risk-adjusted CUSUM chart to identify potential performance problems.

Is High Serum LDL/HDL Cholesterol Ratio an Emerging Risk Factor for Sudden Cardiac Death? Findings from the KIHD Study.

PubMed

Kunutsor, Setor K; Zaccardi, Francesco; Karppi, Jouni; Kurl, Sudhir; Laukkanen, Jari A

2017-06-01

Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c), which are components of total cholesterol, have each been suggested to be linked to the risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). However, the relationship between LDL-c/HDL-c ratio and the risk of SCD has not been previously investigated. We aimed to assess the associations of LDL-c, HDL-c, and the ratio of LDL-c/HDL-c with the risk of SCD. Serum lipoprotein concentrations were assessed at baseline in the Finnish Kuopio Ischemic Heart Disease prospective cohort study of 2,616 men aged 42-61 years at recruitment. Hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals [CI]) were assessed. During a median follow-up of 23.0 years, a total of 228 SCDs occurred. There was no significant evidence of an association of LDL-c or HDL-c with the risk of SCD. In analyses adjusted for age, examination year, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, years of education, diabetes, previous myocardial infarction, family history of coronary heart disease, and serum high sensitivity C-reactive protein, there was approximately a two-fold increase in the risk of SCD (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.21-3.11; p=0.006), comparing the top (＞4.22) versus bottom (≤2.30) quintile of serum LDL-c/HDL-c ratio. In this middle-aged male population, LDL-c or HDL-c was not associated with the risk of SCD. However, a high serum LDL-c/HDL-c ratio was found to be independently associated with an increased risk of SCD. Further research is warranted to understand the mechanistic pathways underlying this association.

Suboptimal decision making by children with ADHD in the face of risk: Poor risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general proneness to taking risks.

PubMed

Sørensen, Lin; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund; Eichele, Heike; van Wageningen, Heidi; Wollschlaeger, Daniel; Plessen, Kerstin Jessica

2017-02-01

Suboptimal decision making in the face of risk (DMR) in children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) may be mediated by deficits in a number of different neuropsychological processes. We investigated DMR in children with ADHD using the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT) to distinguish difficulties in adjusting to changing probabilities of choice outcomes (so-called risk adjustment) from general risk proneness, and to distinguish these 2 processes from delay aversion (the tendency to choose the least delayed option) and impairments in the ability to reflect on choice options. Based on previous research, we predicted that suboptimal performance on this task in children with ADHD would be primarily relate to problems with risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general risk proneness. Drug naïve children with ADHD (n = 36), 8 to 12 years, and an age-matched group of typically developing children (n = 34) performed the CGT. As predicted, children with ADHD were not more prone to making risky choices (i.e., risk proneness). However, they had difficulty adjusting to changing risk levels and were more delay aversive-with these 2 effects being correlated. Our findings add to the growing body of evidence that children with ADHD do not favor risk taking per se when performing gambling tasks, but rather may lack the cognitive skills or motivational style to appraise changing patterns of risk effectively. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Measurement and risk adjustment of prelabor cesarean rates in a large sample of California hospitals.

PubMed

Huesch, Marco D; Currid-Halkett, Elizabeth; Doctor, Jason N

2014-05-01

Prelabor cesareans in women without a prior cesarean is an important quality measure, yet one that is seldom tracked. We estimated patient-level risks and calculated how sensitive hospital rankings on this proposed quality metric were to risk adjustment. This retrospective cohort study linked Californian patient data from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality with hospital-level operational and financial data. Using the outcome of primary prelabor cesarean, we estimated patient-level logistic regressions in progressively more detailed models. We assessed incremental fit and discrimination, and aggregated the predicted patient-level event probabilities to construct hospital-level rankings. Of 408,355 deliveries by women without prior cesareans at 254 hospitals, 11.0% were prelabor cesareans. Including age, ethnicity, race, insurance, weekend and unscheduled admission, and 12 well-known patient risk factors yielded a model c-statistic of 0.83. Further maternal comorbidities, and hospital and obstetric unit characteristics only marginally improved fit. Risk adjusting hospital rankings led to a median absolute change in rank of 44 places compared to rankings based on observed rates. Of the 48 (49) hospitals identified as in the best (worst) quintile on observed rates, only 23 (18) were so identified by the risk-adjusted model. Models predict primary prelabor cesareans with good discrimination. Systematic hospital-level variation in patient risk factors requires risk adjustment to avoid considerably different classification of hospitals by outcome performance. An opportunity exists to define this metric and report such risk-adjusted outcomes to stakeholders. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantifying Geographic Variation in Health Care Outcomes in the United States before and after Risk-Adjustment.

PubMed

Rosenberg, Barry L; Kellar, Joshua A; Labno, Anna; Matheson, David H M; Ringel, Michael; VonAchen, Paige; Lesser, Richard I; Li, Yue; Dimick, Justin B; Gawande, Atul A; Larsson, Stefan H; Moses, Hamilton

2016-01-01

Despite numerous studies of geographic variation in healthcare cost and utilization at the local, regional, and state levels across the U.S., a comprehensive characterization of geographic variation in outcomes has not been published. Our objective was to quantify variation in US health outcomes in an all-payer population before and after risk-adjustment. We used information from 16 independent data sources, including 22 million all-payer inpatient admissions from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (which covers regions where 50% of the U.S. population lives) to analyze 24 inpatient mortality, inpatient safety, and prevention outcomes. We compared outcome variation at state, hospital referral region, hospital service area, county, and hospital levels. Risk-adjusted outcomes were calculated after adjusting for population factors, co-morbidities, and health system factors. Even after risk-adjustment, there exists large geographical variation in outcomes. The variation in healthcare outcomes exceeds the well publicized variation in US healthcare costs. On average, we observed a 2.1-fold difference in risk-adjusted mortality outcomes between top- and bottom-decile hospitals. For example, we observed a 2.3-fold difference for risk-adjusted acute myocardial infarction inpatient mortality. On average a 10.2-fold difference in risk-adjusted patient safety outcomes exists between top and bottom-decile hospitals, including an 18.3-fold difference for risk-adjusted Central Venous Catheter Bloodstream Infection rates. A 3.0-fold difference in prevention outcomes exists between top- and bottom-decile counties on average; including a 2.2-fold difference for risk-adjusted congestive heart failure admission rates. The population, co-morbidity, and health system factors accounted for a range of R2 between 18-64% of variability in mortality outcomes, 3-39% of variability in patient safety outcomes, and 22-70% of variability in prevention outcomes. The amount of variability

Risk-adjusted outcome measurement in pediatric allogeneic stem cell transplantation.

PubMed

Matthes-Martin, Susanne; Pötschger, Ulrike; Bergmann, Kirsten; Frommlet, Florian; Brannath, Werner; Bauer, Peter; Klingebiel, Thomas

2008-03-01

The purpose of the study was to define a risk score for 1-year treatment-related mortality (TRM) in children undergoing allogeneic stem cell transplantation as a basis for risk-adjusted outcome assessment. We analyzed 1364 consecutive stem cell transplants performed in 24 German and Austrian centers between 1998 and 2003. Five well-established risk factors were tested by multivariate logistic regression for predictive power: patient age, disease status, donor other than matched sibling donor, T cell depletion (TCD), and preceding stem cell transplantation. The risk score was defined by rounding the parameter estimates of the significant risk factors to the nearest integer. Crossvalidation was performed on the basis of 5 randomly extracted equal-sized parts from the database. Additionally, the score was validated for different disease entities and for single centers. Multivariate analysis revealed a significant correlation of TRM with 3 risk factors: age >10 years, advanced disease, and alternative donor. The parameter estimates were 0.76 for age, 0.73 for disease status, and 0.97 for donor type. Rounding the estimates resulted in a score with 1 point for each risk factor. One-year TRM (overall survival [OS]) were 5% (89%) with a score of 0, 18% (74%) with 1, 28% (54%) with 2, and 53% (27%) with 3 points. Crossvalidation showed stable results with a good correlation between predicted and observed mortality but moderate discrimination. The score seems to be a simple instrument to estimate the expected mortality for each risk group and for each center. Measuring TRM risk-adjusted and the comparison between expected and observed mortality may be an additional tool for outcome assessment in pediatric stem cell transplantation.

Evaluating variation in use of definitive therapy and risk-adjusted prostate cancer mortality in England and the USA.

PubMed

Sachdeva, Ashwin; van der Meulen, Jan H; Emberton, Mark; Cathcart, Paul J

2015-02-24

Prostate cancer mortality (PCM) in the USA is among the lowest in the world, whereas PCM in England is among the highest in Europe. This paper aims to assess the association of variation in use of definitive therapy on risk-adjusted PCM in England as compared with the USA. Observational study. Cancer registry data from England and the USA. Men diagnosed with non-metastatic prostate cancer (PCa) in England and the USA between 2004 and 2008. Competing-risks survival analyses to estimate subhazard ratios (SHR) of PCM adjusted for age, ethnicity, year of diagnosis, Gleason score (GS) and clinical tumour (cT) stage. 222,163 men were eligible for inclusion. Compared with American patients, English patients were more likely to present at an older age (70-79 years: England 44.2%, USA 29.3%, p<0.001), with higher tumour stage (cT3-T4: England 25.1%, USA 8.6%, p<0.001) and higher GS (GS 8-10: England 20.7%, USA 11.2%, p<0.001). They were also less likely to receive definitive therapy (England 38%, USA 77%, p<0.001). English patients were more likely to die of PCa (SHR=1.9, 95% CI 1.7 to 2.0, p<0.001). However, this difference was no longer statistically significant when also adjusted for use of definitive therapy (SHR=1.0, 95% CI 1.0 to 1.1, p=0.3). Risk-adjusted PCM is significantly higher in England compared with the USA. This difference may be explained by less frequent use of definitive therapy in England. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The Experience of Risk-Adjusted Capitation Payment for Family Physicians in Iran: A Qualitative Study.

PubMed

Esmaeili, Reza; Hadian, Mohammad; Rashidian, Arash; Shariati, Mohammad; Ghaderi, Hossien

2016-04-01

When a country's health system is faced with fundamental flaws that require the redesign of financing and service delivery, primary healthcare payment systems are often reformed. This study was conducted with the purpose of exploring the experiences of risk-adjusted capitation payment of urban family physicians in Iran when it comes to providing primary health care (PHC). This is a qualitative study using the framework method. Data were collected via digitally audio-recorded semi-structured interviews with 24 family physicians and 5 executive directors in two provinces of Iran running the urban family physician pilot program. The participants were selected using purposive and snowball sampling. The codes were extracted using inductive and deductive methods. Regarding the effects of risk-adjusted capitation on the primary healthcare setting, five themes with 11 subthemes emerged, including service delivery, institutional structure, financing, people's behavior, and the challenges ahead. Our findings indicated that the health system is enjoying some major changes in the primary healthcare setting through the implementation of risk-adjusted capitation payment. With regard to the current challenges in Iran's health system, using risk-adjusted capitation as a primary healthcare payment system can lead to useful changes in the health system's features. However, future research should focus on the development of the risk-adjusted capitation model.

Waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index as risk factors for cardiovascular events in CKD.

PubMed

Elsayed, Essam F; Tighiouart, Hocine; Weiner, Daniel E; Griffith, John; Salem, Deeb; Levey, Andrew S; Sarnak, Mark J

2008-07-01

The role of obesity as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is poorly understood. Waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) is less influenced by muscle and bone mass than body mass index (BMI). We compared WHR and BMI as risk factors for cardiac events (myocardial infarction and fatal coronary disease) in persons with CKD. Cohort study. Persons with CKD, defined as baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate of 15 to 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2), drawn from 2 community studies: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study and the Cardiovascular Health Study. WHR, waist circumference, and BMI. Myocardial infarction and fatal coronary heart disease. Of 1,669 participants with CKD, mean age was 70.3 years and 56% were women. Mean (SD) WHRs were 0.97 +/- 0.08 in men and 0.90 +/- 0.07 in women; mean (SD) BMI was 27.2 +/- 4.6 kg/m(2). During a mean of 9.3 years of follow-up, there were 334 cardiac events. In multivariable-adjusted Cox models, the highest WHR group (n = 386) was associated with an increased risk of cardiac events compared with the lowest WHR group (hazard ratio, 1.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.01 to 1.83). Obesity, defined as BMI greater than 30 kg/m(2) (n = 381), was not associated with cardiac events (hazard ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.62 to 1.20) in comparison to participants with normal BMI (<25 kg/m(2)). Results with waist circumference were similar to those with BMI. Absence of a gold standard for measurement of visceral fat. WHR, but not BMI, is associated with cardiac events in persons with CKD. Relying exclusively on BMI may underestimate the importance of obesity as a cardiovascular disease risk factor in persons with CKD.

Risk Adjustment and Primary Health Care in Chile

PubMed Central

Vargas, Veronica; Wasem, Juergen

2006-01-01

Aim To offer a capitation formula with greater capacity for guiding resource spending on population with poorer health and lower socioeconomic status in the context of financing and equity in primary health care. Methods We collected two years of data on a sample of 10 000 individuals from a region in Chile, Valdivia and Temuco and evaluated three models to estimate utilization and expenditures per capita. The first model included age and sex; the second one included age, sex, and the presence of two key diagnoses; and the third model included age, sex, and the presence of seven key diagnoses. Regression results were evaluated by R2 and predictive ratios to select the best specifications. Results Per-capita expenditures by age and sex confirmed international trends, where children under five, women, and the elderly were the main users of primary health care services. Women sought health advice twice as much as men. Clear differences by socioeconomic status were observed for the indigent population aged ≥65 years who under-utilized primary health care services. From the three models, major improvement in the predictive power occurred from the demographic (adjusted R2, 9%) to the demographic plus two diagnoses model (adjusted R2, 27%). Improvements were modest when five other diagnoses were added (adjusted R2, 28%). Conclusion The current formula that uses municipality’s financial power and geographic location of health centers to adjust capitation payments provides little incentive to appropriate care for the indigent and people with chronic conditions. A capitation payment that adjusts for age, sex, and the presence of diabetes and hypertension will better guide resource allocation to those with poorer health and lower socioeconomic status. PMID:16758525

Decreased risk adjusted 30-day mortality for hospital admitted injuries: a multi-centre longitudinal study.

PubMed

Larsen, Robert; Bäckström, Denise; Fredrikson, Mats; Steinvall, Ingrid; Gedeborg, Rolf; Sjoberg, Folke

2018-04-03

The interpretation of changes in injury-related mortality over time requires an understanding of changes in the incidence of the various types of injury, and adjustment for their severity. Our aim was to investigate changes over time in incidence of hospital admission for injuries caused by falls, traffic incidents, or assaults, and to assess the risk-adjusted short-term mortality for these patients. All patients admitted to hospital with injuries caused by falls, traffic incidents, or assaults during the years 2001-11 in Sweden were identified from the nationwide population-based Patient Registry. The trend in mortality over time for each cause of injury was adjusted for age, sex, comorbidity and severity of injury as classified from the International Classification of diseases, version 10 Injury Severity Score (ICISS). Both the incidence of fall (689 to 636/100000 inhabitants: p = 0.047, coefficient - 4.71) and traffic related injuries (169 to 123/100000 inhabitants: p < 0.0001, coefficient - 5.37) decreased over time while incidence of assault related injuries remained essentially unchanged during the study period. There was an overall decrease in risk-adjusted 30-day mortality in all three groups (OR 1.00; CI95% 0.99-1.00). Decreases in traffic (OR 0.95; 95% CI 0.93 to 0.97) and assault (OR 0.93; 95% CI 0.87 to 0.99) related injuries was significant whereas falls were not during this 11-year period. Risk-adjustment is a good way to use big materials to find epidemiological changes. However after adjusting for age, year, sex and risk we find that a possible factor is left in the pre- and/or in-hospital care. The decrease in risk-adjusted mortality may suggest changes over time in pre- and/or in-hospital care. A non-significantdecrease in risk-adjusted mortality was registered for falls, which may indicate that low-energy trauma has not benefited for the increased survivability as much as high-energy trauma, ie traffic- and assault related

Risk-Adjustment Simulation: Plans May Have Incentives To Distort Mental Health And Substance Use Coverage

PubMed Central

Montz, Ellen; Layton, Tim; Busch, Alisa B.; Ellis, Randall P.; Rose, Sherri; McGuire, Thomas G.

2016-01-01

Under the Affordable Care Act, the risk-adjustment program is designed to compensate health plans for enrolling people with poorer health status so that plans compete on cost and quality rather than the avoidance of high-cost individuals. This study examined health plan incentives to limit covered services for mental health and substance use disorders under the risk-adjustment system used in the health insurance Marketplaces. Through a simulation of the program on a population constructed to reflect Marketplace enrollees, we analyzed the cost consequences for plans enrolling people with mental health and substance use disorders. Our assessment points to systematic underpayment to plans for people with these diagnoses. We document how Marketplace risk adjustment does not remove incentives for plans to limit coverage for services associated with mental health and substance use disorders. Adding mental health and substance use diagnoses used in Medicare Part D risk adjustment is one potential policy step toward addressing this problem in the Marketplaces. PMID:27269018

Risk-adjusted capitation payments for catastrophic risks based on multi-year prior costs.

PubMed

van Barneveld, E M; van Vliet, R C; van de Ven, W P

1997-02-01

In many countries regulated competition among health insurance companies has recently been proposed or implemented. A crucial issue is whether or not the benefits package offered by competing insurers should also cover catastrophic risks (like several forms of expensive long-term care) in addition to non-catastrophic risks (like hospital care and physician services). In 1988 the Dutch government proposed compulsory national health insurance based on regulated competition among insurer as well as among providers of care. The competing insurers should offer a benefits package covering both non-catastrophic risks and catastrophic risks. The insurers would be largely financed via risk-adjusted capitation payments. The government intended to use a capitation formula that is, besides some demographic variables, based on multi-year prior costs. This paper presents the results of an explorative empirical analysis of the possible consequences of such a capitation formula for catastrophic risks. The main conclusion is that this formula would be inadequate because it would leave ample room for cream skimming.

Long-Term Cumulative Effects of Childcare on Children's Mental Development and Socioemotional Adjustment in a Non-Risk Sample: The Moderating Effects of Gender

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bornstein, Marc H.; Hahn, Chun-Shin; Gist, Nancy F.; Haynes, O. Maurice

2006-01-01

We studied the long-term cumulative effects of two common indices of childcare--the total number of hours of non-maternal care and the mean hour-weighted child-to-caregiver ratio per caregiving situation--on mental development and socioemotional adjustment from birth to 4.5 years old in a non-risk middle-class sample of girls and boys after taking…

Using Quantile and Asymmetric Least Squares Regression for Optimal Risk Adjustment.

PubMed

Lorenz, Normann

2017-06-01

In this paper, we analyze optimal risk adjustment for direct risk selection (DRS). Integrating insurers' activities for risk selection into a discrete choice model of individuals' health insurance choice shows that DRS has the structure of a contest. For the contest success function (csf) used in most of the contest literature (the Tullock-csf), optimal transfers for a risk adjustment scheme have to be determined by means of a restricted quantile regression, irrespective of whether insurers are primarily engaged in positive DRS (attracting low risks) or negative DRS (repelling high risks). This is at odds with the common practice of determining transfers by means of a least squares regression. However, this common practice can be rationalized for a new csf, but only if positive and negative DRSs are equally important; if they are not, optimal transfers have to be calculated by means of a restricted asymmetric least squares regression. Using data from German and Swiss health insurers, we find considerable differences between the three types of regressions. Optimal transfers therefore critically depend on which csf represents insurers' incentives for DRS and, if it is not the Tullock-csf, whether insurers are primarily engaged in positive or negative DRS. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Net Efficacy Adjusted for Risk (NEAR): A Simple Procedure for Measuring Risk:Benefit Balance

PubMed Central

Boada, José N.; Boada, Carlos; García-Sáiz, Mar; García, Marcelino; Fernández, Eduardo; Gómez, Eugenio

2008-01-01

Background Although several mathematical models have been proposed to assess the risk:benefit of drugs in one measure, their use in practice has been rather limited. Our objective was to design a simple, easily applicable model. In this respect, measuring the proportion of patients who respond favorably to treatment without being affected by adverse drug reactions (ADR) could be a suitable endpoint. However, remarkably few published clinical trials report the data required to calculate this proportion. As an approach to the problem, we calculated the expected proportion of this type of patients. Methodology/Principal Findings Theoretically, responders without ADR may be obtained by multiplying the total number of responders by the total number of subjects that did not suffer ADR, and dividing the product by the total number of subjects studied. When two drugs are studied, the same calculation may be repeated for the second drug. Then, by constructing a 2×2 table with the expected frequencies of responders with and without ADR, and non-responders with and without ADR, the odds ratio and relative risk with their confidence intervals may be easily calculated and graphically represented on a logarithmic scale. Such measures represent “net efficacy adjusted for risk” (NEAR). We assayed the model with results extracted from several published clinical trials or meta-analyses. On comparing our results with those originally reported by the authors, marked differences were found in some cases, with ADR arising as a relevant factor to balance the clinical benefit obtained. The particular features of the adverse reaction that must be weighed against benefit is discussed in the paper. Conclusion NEAR representing overall risk-benefit may contribute to improving knowledge of drug clinical usefulness. As most published clinical trials tend to overestimate benefits and underestimate toxicity, our measure represents an effort to change this trend. PMID:18974868

Estimation of the standardized risk difference and ratio in a competing risks framework: application to injection drug use and progression to AIDS after initiation of antiretroviral therapy.

PubMed

Cole, Stephen R; Lau, Bryan; Eron, Joseph J; Brookhart, M Alan; Kitahata, Mari M; Martin, Jeffrey N; Mathews, William C; Mugavero, Michael J

2015-02-15

There are few published examples of absolute risk estimated from epidemiologic data subject to censoring and competing risks with adjustment for multiple confounders. We present an example estimating the effect of injection drug use on 6-year risk of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) after initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy between 1998 and 2012 in an 8-site US cohort study with death before AIDS as a competing risk. We estimate the risk standardized to the total study sample by combining inverse probability weights with the cumulative incidence function; estimates of precision are obtained by bootstrap. In 7,182 patients (83% male, 33% African American, median age of 38 years), we observed 6-year standardized AIDS risks of 16.75% among 1,143 injection drug users and 12.08% among 6,039 nonusers, yielding a standardized risk difference of 4.68 (95% confidence interval: 1.27, 8.08) and a standardized risk ratio of 1.39 (95% confidence interval: 1.12, 1.72). Results may be sensitive to the assumptions of exposure-version irrelevance, no measurement bias, and no unmeasured confounding. These limitations suggest that results be replicated with refined measurements of injection drug use. Nevertheless, estimating the standardized risk difference and ratio is straightforward, and injection drug use appears to increase the risk of AIDS. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Level of education and multiple sclerosis risk after adjustment for known risk factors: The EnvIMS study.

PubMed

Bjørnevik, Kjetil; Riise, Trond; Cortese, Marianna; Holmøy, Trygve; Kampman, Margitta T; Magalhaes, Sandra; Myhr, Kjell-Morten; Wolfson, Christina; Pugliatti, Maura

2016-01-01

Several recent studies have found a higher risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) among people with a low level of education. This has been suggested to reflect an effect of smoking and lower vitamin D status in the social class associated with lower levels of education. The objective of this paper is to investigate the association between level of education and MS risk adjusting for the known risk factors smoking, infectious mononucleosis, indicators of vitamin D levels and body size. Within the case-control study on Environmental Factors In MS (EnvIMS), 953 MS patients and 1717 healthy controls from Norway reported educational level and history of exposure to putative environmental risk factors. Higher level of education were associated with decreased MS risk (p trend = 0.001) with an OR of 0.53 (95% CI 0.41-0.68) when comparing those with the highest and lowest level of education. This association was only moderately reduced after adjusting for known risk factors (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.44-0.83). The estimates remained similar when cases with disease onset before age 28 were excluded. These findings suggest that factors related to lower socioeconomic status other than established risk factors are associated with MS risk. © The Author(s), 2015.

Level of education and multiple sclerosis risk after adjustment for known risk factors: The EnvIMS study

PubMed Central

Bjørnevik, Kjetil; Riise, Trond; Cortese, Marianna; Holmøy, Trygve; Kampman, Margitta T; Magalhaes, Sandra; Myhr, Kjell-Morten; Wolfson, Christina; Pugliatti, Maura

2016-01-01

Background: Several recent studies have found a higher risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) among people with a low level of education. This has been suggested to reflect an effect of smoking and lower vitamin D status in the social class associated with lower levels of education. Objective: The objective of this paper is to investigate the association between level of education and MS risk adjusting for the known risk factors smoking, infectious mononucleosis, indicators of vitamin D levels and body size. Methods: Within the case-control study on Environmental Factors In MS (EnvIMS), 953 MS patients and 1717 healthy controls from Norway reported educational level and history of exposure to putative environmental risk factors. Results: Higher level of education were associated with decreased MS risk (p trend = 0.001) with an OR of 0.53 (95% CI 0.41–0.68) when comparing those with the highest and lowest level of education. This association was only moderately reduced after adjusting for known risk factors (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.44–0.83). The estimates remained similar when cases with disease onset before age 28 were excluded. Conclusion: These findings suggest that factors related to lower socioeconomic status other than established risk factors are associated with MS risk. PMID:26014605

The risk-adjusted vision beyond casemix (DRG) funding in Australia. International lessons in high complexity and capitation.

PubMed

Antioch, Kathryn M; Walsh, Michael K

2004-06-01

Hospitals throughout the world using funding based on diagnosis-related groups (DRG) have incurred substantial budgetary deficits, despite high efficiency. We identify the limitations of DRG funding that lack risk (severity) adjustment for State-wide referral services. Methods to risk adjust DRGs are instructive. The average price in casemix funding in the Australian State of Victoria is policy based, not benchmarked. Average cost weights are too low for high-complexity DRGs relating to State-wide referral services such as heart and lung transplantation and trauma. Risk-adjusted specified grants (RASG) are required for five high-complexity respiratory, cardiology and stroke DRGs incurring annual deficits of $3.6 million due to high casemix complexity and government under-funding despite high efficiency. Five stepwise linear regressions for each DRG excluded non-significant variables and assessed heteroskedasticity and multicollinearlity. Cost per patient was the dependent variable. Significant independent variables were age, length-of-stay outliers, number of disease types, diagnoses, procedures and emergency status. Diagnosis and procedure severity markers were identified. The methodology and the work of the State-wide Risk Adjustment Working Group can facilitate risk adjustment of DRGs State-wide and for Treasury negotiations for expenditure growth. The Alfred Hospital previously negotiated RASG of $14 million over 5 years for three trauma and chronic DRGs. Some chronic diseases require risk-adjusted capitation funding models for Australian Health Maintenance Organizations as an alternative to casemix funding. The use of Diagnostic Cost Groups can facilitate State and Federal government reform via new population-based risk adjusted funding models that measure health need.

Serum adiponectin/Ferritin ratio in relation to the risk of type 2 diabetes and insulin sensitivity.

PubMed

Aregbesola, Alex; de Mello, Vanessa D F; Lindström, Jaana; Voutilainen, Sari; Virtanen, Jyrki K; Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi, Sirkka; Tuomainen, Tomi-Pekka; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Uusitupa, Matti

2018-07-01

Body iron inhibits the metabolism of adiponectin, an insulin sensitizing adipokine. We investigated the relationships of baseline and average of 4-year change in values of serum adiponectin (sA), serum ferritin (sF) and sA/sF ratio on type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk and insulin sensitivity (Matsuda ISI) and secretion (disposition index; DI 30 ). Prospective analyses were conducted in participants with impaired glucose tolerance of the Finnish Diabetes Prevention Study (n = 516) recruited in 1993-1998. Cox and linear regression analyses were used to investigate the associations of sA, sF and sA/sF ratio, as continuous variables, with incident T2D, Matsuda ISI, and DI 30 . During the mean follow-up of 8.2 years, 157 incident T2D cases occurred (intervention group, n = 65 and control group, n = 92). In adjusted models, baseline sA and sA/sF ratio were inversely associated with T2D risk (HR = 0.49, 95% CI 0.31-0.76, P = 0.002 and HR = 0.83, 95% CI 0.70-0.99, P = 0.044, respectively). Furthermore, a direct association was observed with Matsuda ISI (β=0.13, 95% CI 0.03-0.22, P = 0.009, for sA and β=0.04, 95% CI 0.01-0.07, P = 0.035, for sA/sF ratio) during the average 4-year follow-up. The changes in sA and sA/sF ratio were also inversely associated with T2D risk (HR = 0.36, 95% CI 0.20-0.63, P < 0.001 and HR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.62-0.92, P = 0.006, respectively), and directly with Matsuda ISI (β=0.27, 95% CI 0.17-0.38, P < 0.001, for sA and β=0.07, 95% CI 0.03-0.11, P < 0.001, for sA/sF ratio). No consistent associations were found with DI 30. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline levels and changes during the follow-up in sA and sA/sF ratio are related to T2D risk and insulin sensitivity. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling the impact of new patient visits on risk adjusted access at 2 clinics.

PubMed

Kolber, Michael A; Rueda, Germán; Sory, John B

2018-06-01

To evaluate the effect new outpatient clinic visits has on the availability of follow-up visits for established patients when patient visit frequency is risk adjusted. Diagnosis codes for patients from 2 Internal Medicine Clinics were extracted through billing data. The HHS-HCC risk adjusted scores for each clinic were determined based upon the average of all clinic practitioners' profiles. These scores were then used to project encounter frequencies for established patients, and for new patients entering the clinic based on risk and time of entry into the clinics. A distinct mean risk frequency distribution for physicians in each clinic could be defined providing model parameters. Within the model, follow-up visit utilization at the highest risk adjusted visit frequencies would require more follow-up slots than currently available when new patient no-show rates and annual patient loss are included. Patients seen at an intermediate or lower visit risk adjusted frequency could be accommodated when new patient no-show rates and annual patient clinic loss are considered. Value-based care is driven by control of cost while maintaining quality of care. In order to control cost, there has been a drive to increase visit frequency in primary care for those patients at increased risk. Adding new patients to primary care clinics limits the availability of follow-up slots that accrue over time for those at highest risk, thereby limiting disease and, potentially, cost control. If frequency of established care visits can be reduced by improved disease control, closing the practice to new patients, hiring health care extenders, or providing non-face to face care models then quality and cost of care may be improved. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Behavioral Adjustment Moderates the Link Between Neuroticism and Biological Health Risk: A U.S.-Japan Comparison Study.

PubMed

Kitayama, Shinobu; Park, Jiyoung; Miyamoto, Yuri; Date, Heiwa; Boylan, Jennifer Morozink; Markus, Hazel R; Karasawa, Mayumi; Kawakami, Norito; Coe, Christopher L; Love, Gayle D; Ryff, Carol D

2018-06-01

Neuroticism, a broad personality trait linked to negative emotions, is consistently linked to ill health when self-report is used to assess health. However, when health risk is assessed with biomarkers, the evidence is inconsistent. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the association between neuroticism and biological health risk is moderated by behavioral adjustment, a propensity to flexibly adjust behaviors to environmental contingencies. Using a U.S.-Japan cross-cultural survey, we found that neuroticism was linked to lower biological health risk for those who are high, but not low, in behavioral adjustment. Importantly, Japanese were higher in behavioral adjustment than European Americans, and as predicted by this cultural difference, neuroticism was linked to lower biological health risk for Japanese but not for European Americans. Finally, consistent with prior evidence, neuroticism was associated with worse self-reported health regardless of behavioral adjustment or culture. Discussion focused on the significance of identifying sociocultural correlates of biological health.

Adjustment of the ratio of Ca/P in the ceramic coating on Mg alloy by plasma electrolytic oxidation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Zhongping; Li, Liangliang; Jiang, Zhaohua

2009-04-01

The ceramic coatings containing Ca and P were prepared on AZ91D Mg alloy by plasma electrolytic oxidation technique in NaOH system and Na 2SiO 3 system, respectively. The phase composition, morphology and the element distribution of the coatings was studied by X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive spectroscopy. The corrosion resistance of the coatings was examined by polarizing curve methods in a 0.9% NaCl solution. In NaOH system, there were a large number of micro-holes distributing evenly on the surface of the coating, and the coating was mainly composed of Mg, Al, P and Ca. In Na 2SiO 3 system, the micro-holes in the coatings were reduced greatly in number and the distribution of the micro-holes was uneven, and the coating was mainly composed of Mg, Al, Si, P and Ca. The ratio of Ca/P in the coating can be controlled by the adjustment of the technique parameters to a certain extent. The adjustment of the concentration of Ca 2+ in the electrolyte was an effective method to change the ratio of Ca/P in the coating in both systems; the reaction time and the working voltage for the adjustment of the ratio of Ca/P in the coating was more suitable for the NaSi 2O 3 system than the NaOH system. The polarizing curve tests showed the coatings improved the corrosion resistance of the AZ91D Mg alloy in 0.9% NaCl solution by nearly two orders of magnitude.

Plasma triglyceride/HDL-cholesterol ratio, insulin resistance, and cardiometabolic risk in young adults

PubMed Central

Murguía-Romero, Miguel; Jiménez-Flores, J. Rafael; Sigrist-Flores, Santiago C.; Espinoza-Camacho, Miguel A.; Jiménez-Morales, Mayra; Piña, Enrique; Méndez-Cruz, A. René; Villalobos-Molina, Rafael; Reaven, Gerald M.

2013-01-01

Studies in mature adults suggest that the plasma concentration ratio of triglyceride (TG)/HDL-cholesterol (HDL-C) provides a simple way to identify apparently healthy individuals who are insulin resistant (IR) and at increased cardiometabolic risk. This study extends these observations by examining the clinical utility of the TG/HDL-C ratio and the metabolic syndrome (MetS) in 2,244 healthy college students (17–24 years old) of Mexican Mestizo ancestry. The TG/HDL-C ratio separating the 25% with the highest value was used to identify IR and increased cardiometabolic risk. Cardiometabolic risk factors were more adverse in men and women whose TG/HDL-C ratios exceeded 3.5 and 2.5, respectively, and approximately one third were identified as being IR. The MetS identified fewer individuals as being IR, but their risk profile was accentuated. In conclusion, both a higher TG/HDL-C ratio and a diagnosis of the MetS identify young IR individuals with an increased cardiometabolic risk profile. The TG/HDL-C ratio identified a somewhat greater number of “high risk” subjects, whereas the MetS found a group whose risk profile was somewhat magnified. These findings suggest that the TG/HDL-C ratio may serve as a simple and clinically useful approach to identify apparently healthy, young individuals who are IR and at increased cardiometabolic risk. PMID:23863983

48 CFR 215.404-71-3 - Contract type risk and working capital adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... varying contract types. The working capital adjustment is an adjustment added to the profit objective for... Base (item 20) Profit objective 24. CONTRACT type risk (1) (2) (3) Cost financed Length factor Interest... money. (3) Multiply (1) by (2). (4) Only complete this block when the prospective contract is a fixed...

48 CFR 215.404-71-3 - Contract type risk and working capital adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... varying contract types. The working capital adjustment is an adjustment added to the profit objective for... Base (item 20) Profit objective 24. CONTRACT type risk (1) (2) (3) Cost financed Length factor Interest... money. (3) Multiply (1) by (2). (4) Only complete this block when the prospective contract is a fixed...

48 CFR 215.404-71-3 - Contract type risk and working capital adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... varying contract types. The working capital adjustment is an adjustment added to the profit objective for... Base (item 20) Profit objective 24. CONTRACT type risk (1) (2) (3) Cost financed Length factor Interest... money. (3) Multiply (1) by (2). (4) Only complete this block when the prospective contract is a fixed...

Lung cancer among coal miners, ore miners and quarrymen: smoking-adjusted risk estimates from the synergy pooled analysis of case-control studies.

PubMed

Taeger, Dirk; Pesch, Beate; Kendzia, Benjamin; Behrens, Thomas; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Dahmann, Dirk; Siemiatycki, Jack; Kromhout, Hans; Vermeulen, Roel; Peters, Susan; Olsson, Ann; Brüske, Irene; Wichmann, Heinz-Erich; Stücker, Isabelle; Guida, Florence; Tardón, Adonina; Merletti, Franco; Mirabelli, Dario; Richiardi, Lorenzo; Pohlabeln, Hermann; Ahrens, Wolfgang; Landi, Maria Teresa; Caporaso, Neil; Pesatori, Angela Cecilia; Mukeriya, Anush; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonila; Lissowska, Jolanta; Gustavsson, Per; Field, John; Marcus, Michael W; Fabianova, Eleonora; 't Mannetje, Andrea; Pearce, Neil; Rudnai, Peter; Bencko, Vladimir; Janout, Vladimir; Dumitru, Rodica Stanescu; Foretova, Lenka; Forastiere, Francesco; McLaughlin, John; Paul Demers, Paul Demers; Bueno-de-Mesquita, Bas; Schüz, Joachim; Straif, Kurt; Brüning, Thomas

2015-09-01

Working in mines and quarries has been associated with an elevated lung cancer risk but with inconsistent results for coal miners. This study aimed to estimate the smoking-adjusted lung cancer risk among coal miners and compare the risk pattern with lung cancer risks among ore miners and quarrymen. We estimated lung cancer risks of coal and ore miners and quarrymen among 14 251 lung cancer cases and 17 267 controls from the SYNERGY pooled case-control study, controlling for smoking and employment in other at-risk occupations. Ever working as miner or quarryman (690 cases, 436 controls) was associated with an elevated odds ratio (OR) of 1.55 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.34-1.79] for lung cancer. Ore miners (53 cases, 24 controls) had a higher OR (2.34, 95% CI 1.36-4.03) than quarrymen (67 cases, 39 controls; OR 1.92, 95% CI 1.21-3.05) and coal miners (442 cases, 297 controls; OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.18-1.67), but CI overlapped. We did not observe trends by duration of exposure or time since last exposure. This pooled analysis of population-based studies demonstrated an excess lung cancer risk among miners and quarrymen that remained increased after adjustment for detailed smoking history and working in other at-risk occupations. The increase in risk among coal miners were less pronounced than for ore miners or quarrymen.

Public Reporting of Primary Care Clinic Quality: Accounting for Sociodemographic Factors in Risk Adjustment and Performance Comparison.

PubMed

Wholey, Douglas R; Finch, Michael; Kreiger, Rob; Reeves, David

2018-01-03

Performance measurement and public reporting are increasingly being used to compare clinic performance. Intended consequences include quality improvement, value-based payment, and consumer choice. Unintended consequences include reducing access for riskier patients and inappropriately labeling some clinics as poor performers, resulting in tampering with stable care processes. Two analytic steps are used to maximize intended and minimize unintended consequences. First, risk adjustment is used to reduce the impact of factors outside providers' control. Second, performance categorization is used to compare clinic performance using risk-adjusted measures. This paper examines the effects of methodological choices, such as risk adjusting for sociodemographic factors in risk adjustment and accounting for patients clustering by clinics in performance categorization, on clinic performance comparison for diabetes care, vascular care, asthma, and colorectal cancer screening. The population includes all patients with commercial and public insurance served by clinics in Minnesota. Although risk adjusting for sociodemographic factors has a significant effect on quality, it does not explain much of the variation in quality. In contrast, taking into account the nesting of patients within clinics in performance categorization has a substantial effect on performance comparison.

[Do laymen understand information about hospital quality? An empirical verification using risk-adjusted mortality rates as an example].

PubMed

Sander, Uwe; Kolb, Benjamin; Taheri, Fatemeh; Patzelt, Christiane; Emmert, Martin

2017-11-01

The effect of public reporting to improve quality in healthcare is reduced by the limited intelligibility of information about the quality of healthcare providers. This may result in worse health-related choices especially for older people and those with lower levels of education. There is, as yet, little information as to whether laymen understand the concepts behind quality comparisons and if this comprehension is correlated with hospital choices. An instrument with 20 items was developed to analyze the intelligibility of five technical terms which were used in German hospital report cards to explain risk-adjusted death rates. Two online presentations of risk-adjusted death rates for five hospitals in the style of hospital report cards were developed. An online survey of 353 volunteers tested the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality rates and included an experimental hospital choice. The intelligibility of five technical terms was tested: risk-adjusted, actual and expected death rate, reference range and national average. The percentages of correct answers for the five technical terms were in the range of 75.0-60.2%. Between 23.8% and 5.1% of the respondents were not able to answer the question about the technical term itself. The least comprehensible technical terms were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". The intelligibility of the 20 items that were used to test the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality was between 89.5% and 14.2%. The two items that proved to be least comprehensible were related to the technical terms "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". For all five technical terms it was found that a better comprehension correlated significantly with better hospital choices. We found a better than average intelligibility for the technical terms "actual and expected death rate" and for "national average". The least understandable were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". Since the self

PACE and the Medicare+Choice risk-adjusted payment model.

PubMed

Temkin-Greener, H; Meiners, M R; Gruenberg, L

2001-01-01

This paper investigates the impact of the Medicare principal inpatient diagnostic cost group (PIP-DCG) payment model on the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE). Currently, more than 6,000 Medicare beneficiaries who are nursing home certifiable receive care from PACE, a program poised for expansion under the Balanced Budget Act of 1997. Overall, our analysis suggests that the application of the PIP-DCG model to the PACE program would reduce Medicare payments to PACE, on average, by 38%. The PIP-DCG payment model bases its risk adjustment on inpatient diagnoses and does not capture adequately the risk of caring for a population with functional impairments.

Development and Evaluation of an Automated Machine Learning Algorithm for In-Hospital Mortality Risk Adjustment Among Critical Care Patients.

PubMed

Delahanty, Ryan J; Kaufman, David; Jones, Spencer S

2018-06-01

Risk adjustment algorithms for ICU mortality are necessary for measuring and improving ICU performance. Existing risk adjustment algorithms are not widely adopted. Key barriers to adoption include licensing and implementation costs as well as labor costs associated with human-intensive data collection. Widespread adoption of electronic health records makes automated risk adjustment feasible. Using modern machine learning methods and open source tools, we developed and evaluated a retrospective risk adjustment algorithm for in-hospital mortality among ICU patients. The Risk of Inpatient Death score can be fully automated and is reliant upon data elements that are generated in the course of usual hospital processes. One hundred thirty-one ICUs in 53 hospitals operated by Tenet Healthcare. A cohort of 237,173 ICU patients discharged between January 2014 and December 2016. The data were randomly split into training (36 hospitals), and validation (17 hospitals) data sets. Feature selection and model training were carried out using the training set while the discrimination, calibration, and accuracy of the model were assessed in the validation data set. Model discrimination was evaluated based on the area under receiver operating characteristic curve; accuracy and calibration were assessed via adjusted Brier scores and visual analysis of calibration curves. Seventeen features, including a mix of clinical and administrative data elements, were retained in the final model. The Risk of Inpatient Death score demonstrated excellent discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.94) and calibration (adjusted Brier score = 52.8%) in the validation dataset; these results compare favorably to the published performance statistics for the most commonly used mortality risk adjustment algorithms. Low adoption of ICU mortality risk adjustment algorithms impedes progress toward increasing the value of the healthcare delivered in ICUs. The Risk of Inpatient Death

Solving the Value Equation: Assessing Surgeon Performance Using Risk-Adjusted Quality-Cost Diagrams and Surgical Outcomes.

PubMed

Knechtle, William S; Perez, Sebastian D; Raval, Mehul V; Sullivan, Patrick S; Duwayri, Yazan M; Fernandez, Felix; Sharma, Joe; Sweeney, John F

Quality-cost diagrams have been used previously to assess interventions and their cost-effectiveness. This study explores the use of risk-adjusted quality-cost diagrams to compare the value provided by surgeons by presenting cost and outcomes simultaneously. Colectomy cases from a single institution captured in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database were linked to hospital cost-accounting data to determine costs per encounter. Risk adjustment models were developed and observed average cost and complication rates per surgeon were compared to expected cost and complication rates using the diagrams. Surgeons were surveyed to determine if the diagrams could provide information that would result in practice adjustment. Of 55 surgeons surveyed on the utility of the diagrams, 92% of respondents believed the diagrams were useful. The diagrams seemed intuitive to interpret, and making risk-adjusted comparisons accounted for patient differences in the evaluation.

Risk adjustment for comparing hospital quality with surgery: how many variables are needed?

PubMed

Dimick, Justin B; Osborne, Nicholas H; Hall, Bruce L; Ko, Clifford Y; Birkmeyer, John D

2010-04-01

The American College of Surgeons' National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) will soon be reporting procedure-specific outcomes, and hopes to reduce the burden of data collection by collecting fewer variables. We sought to determine whether these changes threaten the robustness of the risk adjustment of hospital quality comparisons. We used prospective, clinical data from the ACS NSQIP from 2005 to 2007 (184 hospitals, 74,887 patients). For the 5 general surgery operations in the procedure-specific NSQIP, we compared the ability of the full model (21 variables), an intermediate model (12 variables), and a limited model (5 variables) to predict patient outcomes and to risk-adjust hospital outcomes. The intermediate and limited models were comparable with the full model in all analyses. In the assessment of patient risk, the limited and full models had very similar discrimination at the patient level (C-indices for all 5 procedures combined of 0.93 versus 0.91 for mortality and 0.78 versus 0.76 for morbidity) and showed good calibration across strata of patient risk. In assessing hospital-specific outcomes, results from the limited and full-risk models were highly correlated for both mortality (range 0.94 to 0.99 across the 5 operations) and morbidity (range 0.96 to 0.99). Procedure-specific hospital quality measures can be adequately risk-adjusted with a limited number of variables. In the context of the ACS NSQIP, moving to a more limited model will dramatically reduce the burden of data collection for participating hospitals. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Beyond preadoptive risk: The impact of adoptive family environment on adopted youth's psychosocial adjustment.

PubMed

Ji, Juye; Brooks, Devon; Barth, Richard P; Kim, Hansung

2010-07-01

Adopted children often are exposed to preadoptive stressors--such as prenatal substance exposure, child maltreatment, and out-of-home placements--that increase their risks for psychosocial maladjustment. Psychosocial adjustment of adopted children emerges as the product of pre- and postadoptive factors. This study builds on previous research, which fails to simultaneously assess the influences of pre- and postadoptive factors, by examining the impact of adoptive family sense of coherence on adoptee's psychosocial adjustment beyond the effects of preadoptive risks. Using a sample of adoptive families (n = 385) taking part in the California Long Range Adoption Study, structural equation modeling analyses were performed. Results indicate a significant impact of family sense of coherence on adoptees' psychosocial adjustment and a considerably less significant role of preadoptive risks. The findings suggest the importance of assessing adoptive family's ability to respond to stress and of helping families to build and maintain their capacity to cope with stress despite the sometimes fractious pressures of adoption.

Improved implementation of the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart to monitor surgical outcome quality.

PubMed

Keefe, Matthew J; Loda, Justin B; Elhabashy, Ahmad E; Woodall, William H

2017-06-01

The traditional implementation of the risk-adjusted Bernoulli cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart for monitoring surgical outcome quality requires waiting a pre-specified period of time after surgery before incorporating patient outcome information. We propose a simple but powerful implementation of the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart that incorporates outcome information as soon as it is available, rather than waiting a pre-specified period of time after surgery. A simulation study is presented that compares the performance of the traditional implementation of the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart to our improved implementation. We show that incorporating patient outcome information as soon as it is available leads to quicker detection of process deterioration. Deterioration of surgical performance could be detected much sooner using our proposed implementation, which could lead to the earlier identification of problems. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Using referrals and priority-setting rules to risk adjust budgets: the case of regional psychiatric centers.

PubMed

Holman, Per Arne; Grepperud, Sverre; Tanum, Lars

2011-03-01

An important objective of many health care systems is to ensure equal access to health care services. One way of achieving this is by having universal coverage (low or absent out-of-pockets payments) combined with tax-financed transfers (block grants) to providers with a catchment area responsibility. However, a precondition for equal access in such systems is that providers have similar capacities -- meaning that budgets must be perfectly adjusted for variations in treatment costs not being under the control of providers (risk adjustment). This study presents a method that can be applied to adjust global budgets for variation in health risks. The method is flexible in the sense that it takes into account the possibility that variation in needs may depend on the degree of rationing in supplying health care services. The information being available from referrals is used to risk-adjust budgets. An expert panel ranks each individual on the basis of need. The ranking is performed according to priority-setting criteria for health care services. In addition, the panel suggests an adequate treatment profile (treatment category and treatment intensity) for each referral reviewed. By coupling the treatment profiles with cost information, risk-adjusted budgets are derived. Only individuals found to have a sufficiently high ranking (degree of need) will impact the derived risk-adjusted formula. The method is applied to four Regional Psychiatric Centers (RPC) supplying (i) outpatient services, (ii) day-patient care, and (iii) inpatient treatment for adults. The budget reallocations needed (positive and negative) to achieve an equal capacity across providers range between 10% and 42% of the current budgets. Our method can identify variations across providers when it comes to actual capacity and suggests budget reallocations that make the capacities to be equal across providers. In the case of the Regional Psychiatric Centers (RPCs) considered in this analysis, significant

Risk Adjustment, Reinsurance Improved Financial Outcomes For Individual Market Insurers With The Highest Claims.

PubMed

Jacobs, Paul D; Cohen, Michael L; Keenan, Patricia

2017-04-01

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) reformed the individual health insurance market. Because insurers can no longer vary their offers of coverage based on applicants' health status, the ACA established a risk adjustment program to equalize health-related cost differences across plans. The ACA also established a temporary reinsurance program to subsidize high-cost claims. To assess the impact of these programs, we compared revenues to claims costs for insurers in the individual market during the first two years of ACA implementation (2014 and 2015), before and after the inclusion of risk adjustment and reinsurance payments. Before these payments were included, for the 30 percent of insurers with the highest claims costs, claims (not including administrative expenses) exceeded premium revenues by $90-$397 per enrollee per month. The effect was reversed after these payments were included, with revenues exceeding claims costs by $0-$49 per month. The risk adjustment and reinsurance programs were relatively well targeted in the first two years. While there is ongoing discussion regarding the future of the ACA, our findings can shed light on how risk-sharing programs can address risk selection among insurers-a pervasive issue in all health insurance markets. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Signal enhancement ratio (SER) quantified from breast DCE-MRI and breast cancer risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Shandong; Kurland, Brenda F.; Berg, Wendie A.; Zuley, Margarita L.; Jankowitz, Rachel C.; Sumkin, Jules; Gur, David

2015-03-01

Breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is recommended as an adjunct to mammography for women who are considered at elevated risk of developing breast cancer. As a key component of breast MRI, dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) uses a contrast agent to provide high intensity contrast between breast tissues, making it sensitive to tissue composition and vascularity. Breast DCE-MRI characterizes certain physiologic properties of breast tissue that are potentially related to breast cancer risk. Studies have shown that increased background parenchymal enhancement (BPE), which is the contrast enhancement occurring in normal cancer-unaffected breast tissues in post-contrast sequences, predicts increased breast cancer risk. Signal enhancement ratio (SER) computed from pre-contrast and post-contrast sequences in DCE-MRI measures change in signal intensity due to contrast uptake over time and is a measure of contrast enhancement kinetics. SER quantified in breast tumor has been shown potential as a biomarker for characterizing tumor response to treatments. In this work we investigated the relationship between quantitative measures of SER and breast cancer risk. A pilot retrospective case-control study was performed using a cohort of 102 women, consisting of 51 women who had diagnosed with unilateral breast cancer and 51 matched controls (by age and MRI date) with a unilateral biopsy-proven benign lesion. SER was quantified using fully-automated computerized algorithms and three SER-derived quantitative volume measures were compared between the cancer cases and controls using logistic regression analysis. Our preliminary results showed that SER is associated with breast cancer risk, after adjustment for the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS)-based mammographic breast density measures. This pilot study indicated that SER has potential for use as a risk factor for breast cancer risk assessment in women at elevated risk of developing breast cancer.

A review of terrorism and its reduction of the gender ratio at birth after seasonal adjustment.

PubMed

Grech, Victor; Zammit, Dorota

2017-12-01

Males are born in excess of females, a ratio expressed as M/T (males:total births). The ratio exhibits seasonal variation. Furthermore, acute stressful events may result in a transient dip in male births due to excess foetal losses, reducing M/T. This study was carried out in order to identify significant M/T dips after adjusting for seasonality. Live births by gender and month were sought for acute stressful events. After seasonal correction (where appropriate), M/T dips were sought. Live births. M/T dips. This paper studied 112,226,306 live births. The following events showed dips ≤5th percentile 3-5months after these acute episodes: the Brooklyn Bridge protests, Katrina Hurricane for all 4 states and for each individual state (Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi), the Battle in Seattle, the London bombings, The Madrid bombings (for Madrid and for Spain), the Breivik shooting, the Oklahoma City bombing and the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting. The Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University shooting the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster also showed dips albeit slightly later. Seasonal adjustments should be taken into consideration in order to avoid Type 1 or 2 error pitfalls. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reliability of risk-adjusted outcomes for profiling hospital surgical quality.

PubMed

Krell, Robert W; Hozain, Ahmed; Kao, Lillian S; Dimick, Justin B

2014-05-01

Quality improvement platforms commonly use risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality to profile hospital performance. However, given small hospital caseloads and low event rates for some procedures, it is unclear whether these outcomes reliably reflect hospital performance. To determine the reliability of risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality for hospital performance profiling using clinical registry data. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program, 2009. Participants included all patients (N = 55,466) who underwent colon resection, pancreatic resection, laparoscopic gastric bypass, ventral hernia repair, abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, and lower extremity bypass. Outcomes included risk-adjusted overall morbidity, severe morbidity, and mortality. We assessed reliability (0-1 scale: 0, completely unreliable; and 1, perfectly reliable) for all 3 outcomes. We also quantified the number of hospitals meeting minimum acceptable reliability thresholds (>0.70, good reliability; and >0.50, fair reliability) for each outcome. For overall morbidity, the most common outcome studied, the mean reliability depended on sample size (ie, how high the hospital caseload was) and the event rate (ie, how frequently the outcome occurred). For example, mean reliability for overall morbidity was low for abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (reliability, 0.29; sample size, 25 cases per year; and event rate, 18.3%). In contrast, mean reliability for overall morbidity was higher for colon resection (reliability, 0.61; sample size, 114 cases per year; and event rate, 26.8%). Colon resection (37.7% of hospitals), pancreatic resection (7.1% of hospitals), and laparoscopic gastric bypass (11.5% of hospitals) were the only procedures for which any hospitals met a reliability threshold of 0.70 for overall morbidity. Because severe morbidity and mortality are less frequent outcomes, their mean

Why people do what they do to protect against earthquake risk: perceptions of hazard adjustment attributes.

PubMed

Lindell, Michael K; Arlikatti, Sudha; Prater, Carla S

2009-08-01

This study examined respondents' self-reported adoption of 16 hazard adjustments (preimpact actions to reduce danger to persons and property), their perceptions of those adjustments' attributes, and the correlations of those perceived attributes with respondents' demographic characteristics. The sample comprised 561 randomly selected residents from three cities in Southern California prone to high seismic risk and three cities from Western Washington prone to moderate seismic risks. The results show that the hazard adjustment perceptions were defined by hazard-related attributes and resource-related attributes. More significantly, the respondents had a significant degree of consensus in their ratings of those attributes and used them to differentiate among the hazard adjustments, as indicated by statistically significant differences among the hazard adjustment profiles. Finally, there were many significant correlations between respondents' demographic characteristics and the perceived characteristics of hazard adjustments, but there were few consistent patterns among these correlations.

Estimating risk and rate levels, ratios and differences in case-control studies.

PubMed

King, Gary; Zeng, Langche

2002-05-30

Classic (or 'cumulative') case-control sampling designs do not admit inferences about quantities of interest other than risk ratios, and then only by making the rare events assumption. Probabilities, risk differences and other quantities cannot be computed without knowledge of the population incidence fraction. Similarly, density (or 'risk set') case-control sampling designs do not allow inferences about quantities other than the rate ratio. Rates, rate differences, cumulative rates, risks, and other quantities cannot be estimated unless auxiliary information about the underlying cohort such as the number of controls in each full risk set is available. Most scholars who have considered the issue recommend reporting more than just risk and rate ratios, but auxiliary population information needed to do this is not usually available. We address this problem by developing methods that allow valid inferences about all relevant quantities of interest from either type of case-control study when completely ignorant of or only partially knowledgeable about relevant auxiliary population information.

Risk-adjusted performance evaluation in three academic thoracic surgery units using the Eurolung risk models.

PubMed

Pompili, Cecilia; Shargall, Yaron; Decaluwe, Herbert; Moons, Johnny; Chari, Madhu; Brunelli, Alessandro

2018-01-03

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of 3 thoracic surgery centres using the Eurolung risk models for morbidity and mortality. This was a retrospective analysis performed on data collected from 3 academic centres (2014-2016). Seven hundred and twenty-one patients in Centre 1, 857 patients in Centre 2 and 433 patients in Centre 3 who underwent anatomical lung resections were analysed. The Eurolung1 and Eurolung2 models were used to predict risk-adjusted cardiopulmonary morbidity and 30-day mortality rates. Observed and risk-adjusted outcomes were compared within each centre. The observed morbidity of Centre 1 was in line with the predicted morbidity (observed 21.1% vs predicted 22.7%, P = 0.31). Centre 2 performed better than expected (observed morbidity 20.2% vs predicted 26.7%, P < 0.001), whereas the observed morbidity of Centre 3 was higher than the predicted morbidity (observed 41.1% vs predicted 24.3%, P < 0.001). Centre 1 had higher observed mortality when compared with the predicted mortality (3.6% vs 2.1%, P = 0.005), whereas Centre 2 had an observed mortality rate significantly lower than the predicted mortality rate (1.2% vs 2.5%, P = 0.013). Centre 3 had an observed mortality rate in line with the predicted mortality rate (observed 1.4% vs predicted 2.4%, P = 0.17). The observed mortality rates in the patients with major complications were 30.8% in Centre 1 (versus predicted mortality rate 3.8%, P < 0.001), 8.2% in Centre 2 (versus predicted mortality rate 4.1%, P = 0.030) and 9.0% in Centre 3 (versus predicted mortality rate 3.5%, P = 0.014). The Eurolung models were successfully used as risk-adjusting instruments to internally audit the outcomes of 3 different centres, showing their applicability for future quality improvement initiatives. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Identifying cardiovascular disease risk and outcome: use of the plasma triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration ratio versus metabolic syndrome criteria.

PubMed

Salazar, M R; Carbajal, H A; Espeche, W G; Aizpurúa, M; Leiva Sisnieguez, C E; March, C E; Balbín, E; Stavile, R N; Reaven, G M

2013-06-01

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) has been shown to predict both risk and CVD events. We have identified sex-specific values for the triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) ratio associated with an unfavourable cardio-metabolic risk profile, but it is not known whether it also predicts CVD outcome. To quantify risk for CVD outcomes associated with a high TG/HDL-C ratio and to compare this risk with that predicted using MetS, a population longitudinal prospective observational study was performed in Rauch City, Buenos Aires, Argentina. In 2003 surveys were performed on a population random sample of 926 inhabitants. In 2012, 527 women and 269 men were surveyed again in search of new CVD events. The first CVD event was the primary endpoint. Relative risks for CVD events between individuals above and below the TG/HDL-C cut-points, and with or without MetS, were estimated using Cox proportional hazard. The first CVD event was the primary endpoint. Relative risks for CVD events between individuals above and below the TG/HDL-C cut-points, and with or without MetS, were estimated using Cox proportional hazard. The number of subjects deemed at 'high' CVD risk on the basis of an elevated TG/HDL-C ratio (30%) or having the MetS (35%) was relatively comparable. The unadjusted hazard risk was significantly increased when comparing 'high' versus 'low' risk groups no matter which criteria was used, although it was somewhat higher in those with the MetS (HR = 3.17, 95% CI:1.79-5.60 vs. 2.16, 95% CI:1.24-3.75). However, this difference essentially disappeared when adjusted for sex and age (HR = 2.09, 95% CI:1.18-3.72 vs. 2.01, 95% CI:1.14-3.50 for MetS and TG/HDL-C respectively). An elevated TG/HDL-C ratio appears to be just as effective as the MetS diagnosis in predicting the development of CVD. © 2013 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.

Training loads and injury risk in Australian football—differing acute: chronic workload ratios influence match injury risk

PubMed Central

Carey, David L; Blanch, Peter; Ong, Kok-Leong; Crossley, Kay M; Crow, Justin; Morris, Meg E

2017-01-01

Aims (1) To investigate whether a daily acute:chronic workload ratio informs injury risk in Australian football players; (2) to identify which combination of workload variable, acute and chronic time window best explains injury likelihood. Methods Workload and injury data were collected from 53 athletes over 2 seasons in a professional Australian football club. Acute:chronic workload ratios were calculated daily for each athlete, and modelled against non-contact injury likelihood using a quadratic relationship. 6 workload variables, 8 acute time windows (2–9 days) and 7 chronic time windows (14–35 days) were considered (336 combinations). Each parameter combination was compared for injury likelihood fit (using R2). Results The ratio of moderate speed running workload (18–24 km/h) in the previous 3 days (acute time window) compared with the previous 21 days (chronic time window) best explained the injury likelihood in matches (R2=0.79) and in the immediate 2 or 5 days following matches (R2=0.76–0.82). The 3:21 acute:chronic workload ratio discriminated between high-risk and low-risk athletes (relative risk=1.98–2.43). Using the previous 6 days to calculate the acute workload time window yielded similar results. The choice of acute time window significantly influenced model performance and appeared to reflect the competition and training schedule. Conclusions Daily workload ratios can inform injury risk in Australian football. Clinicians and conditioning coaches should consider the sport-specific schedule of competition and training when choosing acute and chronic time windows. For Australian football, the ratio of moderate speed running in a 3-day or 6-day acute time window and a 21-day chronic time window best explained injury risk. PMID:27789430

Association of triglyceride-to-high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio to cardiorespiratory fitness in men.

PubMed

Vega, Gloria Lena; Grundy, Scott M; Barlow, Carolyn E; Leonard, David; Willis, Benjamin L; DeFina, Laura F; Farrell, Stephen W

Both triglyceride-to-high density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) and cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) impart risk for all-cause morbidity and mortality independently of conventional risk factors. To determine prevalence and/or incidence of high TG/HDL-C ratio in men with low CRF. Clinical characteristics and CRF were used to determine prevalence of a TG/HDL-C ratio ≥ 3.5 (high ratio) in 13,954 men of the Cooper Center Longitudinal Study. High-ratio conversion was determined in 10,424 men with normal baseline TG/HDL-C ratio. Hazard ratio (HR) of incident high TG/HDL-C was adjusted for age and waist girth. Men with low CRF had the highest prevalence of a high TG/HDL-C ratio. In the population with normal TG/HDL-C, age-adjusted HR of incident high TG/HDL-C ratio was 2.77 times higher in men with lowest CRF than in those with highest CRF. Incidence of conversion of normal to high ratio was 5.5% per year in low CRF population, compared with 1.7% in high CRF subjects. Incidence HR was independent of waist girth. Men who converted from normal to high TG/HDL-C ratio during the follow-up period had increased number of metabolic risk factors and a higher prevalence of metabolic syndrome. Men who did not convert to a high TG/HDL-C ratio retained a low prevalence of metabolic syndrome risk factors. A high TG/HDL-C ratio is common in men with low CRF. Metabolic syndrome also is common among those with a high ratio. Copyright © 2016 National Lipid Association. All rights reserved.

Health-based risk adjustment: improving the pharmacy-based cost group model by adding diagnostic cost groups.

PubMed

Prinsze, Femmeke J; van Vliet, René C J A

Since 1991, risk-adjusted premium subsidies have existed in the Dutch social health insurance sector, which covered about two-thirds of the population until 2006. In 2002, pharmacy-based cost groups (PCGs) were included in the demographic risk adjustment model, which improved the goodness-of-fit, as measured by the R2, to 11.5%. The model's R2 reached 22.8% in 2004, when inpatient diagnostic information was added in the form of diagnostic cost groups (DCGs). PCGs and DCGs appear to be complementary in their ability to predict future costs. PCGs particularly improve the R2 for outpatient expenses, whereas DCGs improve the R2 for inpatient expenses. In 2006, this system of risk-adjusted premium subsidies was extended to cover the entire population.

Utility of serum lipid ratios for predicting incident type 2 diabetes: the Isfahan Diabetes Prevention Study.

PubMed

Janghorbani, Mohsen; Amini, Masoud

2016-09-01

In this study, we evaluate the association between triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL) ratio and total cholesterol (TC) to HDL (TC/HDL) ratio and the risks of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in an Iranian high-risk population. We analysed 7-year follow-up data (n = 1771) in non-diabetic first-degree relatives of consecutive patients with T2D 30-70 years old. The primary outcome was the diagnosis of T2D based on repeated oral glucose tolerance tests. We used Cox proportional hazard models to estimate hazard ratio for incident T2D across tertiles of TG/HDL and TC/HDL ratios and plotted a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to assess discrimination. The highest tertile of TG/HDL and TC/HDL ratios compared with the lowest tertile was not associated with T2D in age- and gender-adjusted models (HR 0.99, 95% CI: 0.88, 1.11 for TG/HDL ratio and 1.10, 95% CI: 0.97, 1.23 for TC/HDL ratio). Further adjustment for waist circumference or body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol did not appreciably alter the hazard ratio compared with the age- and gender-adjusted model. The area under the ROC curve for TG/HDL ratio was 57.7% (95% CI: 54.0, 61.5) and for TC/HDL ratio was 55.1% (95% CI: 51.2, 59.0). TG/HDL and TC/HDL ratios were not robust predictors of T2D in high-risk individuals in Iran. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Ratio of n-3/n-6 PUFAs and risk of breast cancer: a meta-analysis of 274135 adult females from 11 independent prospective studies

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Increased ratio of n-3/n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) in diet or serum may have a protective effect on the risk of breast cancer (BC); however, the conclusions from prospective studies are still controversial. The purpose of this study is to ascertain the relationship between intake ratio of n-3/n-6 PUFAs and the risk of BC, and estimate the potential summarized dose–response trend. Methods Relevant English-language studies were identified through Cochrane Library, PubMed and EMBASE database till April 2013. Eligible prospective studies reporting the multivariate adjusted risk ratios (RRs) for association of n-3/n-6 PUFAs ratio in diet or serum with BC risk. Data extraction was conducted independently by 2 investigators; disagreements were reconciled by consensus. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Study-specific RRs were combined via a random-effects model. Results Six prospective nested case–control and 5 cohort studies, involving 8,331 BC events from 274,135 adult females across different countries, were included in present study. Subjects with higher dietary intake ratio of n-3/n-6 PUFAs have a significantly lower risk of BC among study populations (pooled RR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.82, 0.99), and per 1/10 increment of ratio in diet was associated with a 6% reduction of BC risk (pooled RR = 0.94; 95% CI: 0.90, 0.99; P for linear trend = 0.012). USA subjects with higher ratio of n-3/n-6 in serum phospholipids (PL) have a significantly lower risk of BC (pooled RR = 0.62; 95% CI: 0.39, 0.97; I2 = 0.00%; P for metaregression = 0.103; P for a permutation test = 0.100), and per 1/10 increment of ratio in serum PL was associated with 27% reduction of BC risk (pooled RR = 0.73; 95% CI: 0.59, 0.91; P for linear trend = 0.004; P for metaregression = 0.082; P for a permutation test = 0.116). Conclusions Higher intake ratio of n-3/n-6 PUFAs is associated with lower risk of BC among females, which implies an important evidence for

Risk and Protective Factors at Age 10: Psychological Adjustment in Children With a Cleft Lip and/or Palate.

PubMed

Feragen, Kristin Billaud; Stock, Nicola Marie

2016-03-01

Objective To explore psychological functioning in children with a cleft at age 10 from a broad perspective, including cognitive, emotional, behavioral, appearance-related, and social adjustment. High-risk groups were identified within each area of adjustment to investigate whether vulnerable children were found across domains or whether risk was limited to specific areas of adjustment. Methods Retrospective chart review from psychological assessments at age 10 (N = 845). The effects of gender, cleft visibility, and the presence of an additional condition were investigated. Results were compared with large national samples. Measures Personality Inventory for Children, Child Experience Questionnaire, Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, Satisfaction With Appearance scale. Results The factor affecting psychological adjustment on most domains was the presence of an associated condition in addition to the cleft. As expected, no support was found for cleft visibility as a risk factor, while there were some gender differences related to emotional difficulties and attention. Correlation analyses of risk groups pointed to an association between social experiences and emotional adjustment and between social and behavioral adjustment; whereas, dissatisfaction with appearance was not related to any other domains of risk at age 10. Conclusions The results point to the importance of early screening and assessment of children born with a cleft to identify possible associated conditions and offer adapted and appropriate treatment and care. Future research should investigate how protective factors could counteract potential risk in children with a cleft.

Measuring Profitability Impacts of Information Technology: Use of Risk Adjusted Measures.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Singh, Anil; Harmon, Glynn

2003-01-01

Focuses on understanding how investments in information technology are reflected in the income statements and balance sheets of firms. Shows that the relationship between information technology investments and corporate profitability is much better explained by using risk-adjusted measures of corporate profitability than using the same measures…

A risk adjustment approach to estimating the burden of skin disease in the United States.

PubMed

Lim, Henry W; Collins, Scott A B; Resneck, Jack S; Bolognia, Jean; Hodge, Julie A; Rohrer, Thomas A; Van Beek, Marta J; Margolis, David J; Sober, Arthur J; Weinstock, Martin A; Nerenz, David R; Begolka, Wendy Smith; Moyano, Jose V

2018-01-01

Direct insurance claims tabulation and risk adjustment statistical methods can be used to estimate health care costs associated with various diseases. In this third manuscript derived from the new national Burden of Skin Disease Report from the American Academy of Dermatology, a risk adjustment method that was based on modeling the average annual costs of individuals with or without specific diseases, and specifically tailored for 24 skin disease categories, was used to estimate the economic burden of skin disease. The results were compared with the claims tabulation method used in the first 2 parts of this project. The risk adjustment method estimated the direct health care costs of skin diseases to be $46 billion in 2013, approximately $15 billion less than estimates using claims tabulation. For individual skin diseases, the risk adjustment cost estimates ranged from 11% to 297% of those obtained using claims tabulation for the 10 most costly skin disease categories. Although either method may be used for purposes of estimating the costs of skin disease, the choice of method will affect the end result. These findings serve as an important reference for future discussions about the method chosen in health care payment models to estimate both the cost of skin disease and the potential cost impact of care changes. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

45 CFR 153.740 - Failure to comply with HHS-operated risk adjustment and reinsurance data requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... adjustment data submission and data storage requirements set forth in §§ 153.610 through 153.630, HHS may... adjustment and reinsurance data requirements. 153.740 Section 153.740 Public Welfare Department of Health and... CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT Distributed Data Collection for HHS-Operated...

Risk and Protective Factors for Psychological Adjustment and Grades among Adolescents.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Voydanoff, Patricia; Donnelly, Brenda W.

1999-01-01

Examines the ways in which two risk factors: negative peer behavior and time spent without an adult, and two protective factors: adolescent resources and parental behavior influence psychological adjustment and grades among adolescents ages 10 to 17 (N=745). Results indicate that negative peer behavior is inversely related to adolescent well…

Training loads and injury risk in Australian football-differing acute: chronic workload ratios influence match injury risk.

PubMed

Carey, David L; Blanch, Peter; Ong, Kok-Leong; Crossley, Kay M; Crow, Justin; Morris, Meg E

2017-08-01

(1) To investigate whether a daily acute:chronic workload ratio informs injury risk in Australian football players; (2) to identify which combination of workload variable, acute and chronic time window best explains injury likelihood. Workload and injury data were collected from 53 athletes over 2 seasons in a professional Australian football club. Acute:chronic workload ratios were calculated daily for each athlete, and modelled against non-contact injury likelihood using a quadratic relationship. 6 workload variables, 8 acute time windows (2-9 days) and 7 chronic time windows (14-35 days) were considered (336 combinations). Each parameter combination was compared for injury likelihood fit (using R 2 ). The ratio of moderate speed running workload (18-24 km/h) in the previous 3 days (acute time window) compared with the previous 21 days (chronic time window) best explained the injury likelihood in matches (R 2 =0.79) and in the immediate 2 or 5 days following matches (R 2 =0.76-0.82). The 3:21 acute:chronic workload ratio discriminated between high-risk and low-risk athletes (relative risk=1.98-2.43). Using the previous 6 days to calculate the acute workload time window yielded similar results. The choice of acute time window significantly influenced model performance and appeared to reflect the competition and training schedule. Daily workload ratios can inform injury risk in Australian football. Clinicians and conditioning coaches should consider the sport-specific schedule of competition and training when choosing acute and chronic time windows. For Australian football, the ratio of moderate speed running in a 3-day or 6-day acute time window and a 21-day chronic time window best explained injury risk. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Quality measurement in the shunt treatment of hydrocephalus: analysis and risk adjustment of the Revision Quotient.

PubMed

Piatt, Joseph H; Freibott, Christina E

2014-07-01

OBJECT.: The Revision Quotient (RQ) has been defined as the ratio of the number of CSF shunt revisions to the number of new shunt insertions for a particular neurosurgical practice in a unit of time. The RQ has been proposed as a quality measure in the treatment of childhood hydrocephalus. The authors examined the construct validity of the RQ and explored the feasibility of risk stratification under this metric. The Kids' Inpatient Database for 1997, 2000, 2003, 2006, and 2009 was queried for admissions with diagnostic codes for hydrocephalus and procedural codes for CSF shunt insertion or revision. Revision quotients were calculated for hospitals that performed 12 or more shunt insertions annually. The univariate associations of hospital RQs with a variety of institutional descriptors were analyzed, and a generalized linear model of the RQ was constructed. There were 12,244 admissions (34%) during which new shunts were inserted, and there were 23,349 admissions (66%) for shunt revision. Three hundred thirty-four annual RQs were calculated for 152 different hospitals. Analysis of variance in hospital RQs over the 5 years of study data supports the construct validity of the metric. The following factors were incorporated into a generalized linear model that accounted for 41% of the variance of the measured RQs: degree of pediatric specialization, proportion of initial case mix in the infant age group, and proportion with neoplastic hydrocephalus. The RQ has construct validity. Risk adjustment is feasible, but the risk factors that were identified relate predominantly to patterns of patient flow through the health care system. Possible advantages of an alternative metric, the Surgical Activity Ratio, are discussed.

Risk Factors and Risk Stratification for Adverse Obstetrical Outcomes After Appendectomy or Cholecystectomy During Pregnancy.

PubMed

Sachs, Adam; Guglielminotti, Jean; Miller, Russell; Landau, Ruth; Smiley, Richard; Li, Guohua

2017-05-01

Identification of risk factors for adverse obstetrical outcomes after appendectomy and cholecystectomy during pregnancy is necessary for evidence-based risk reduction and adequate patient counseling. To identify risk factors for adverse obstetrical outcomes after appendectomy and cholecystectomy during pregnancy and stratify the risk of such outcomes. A cohort study was conducted using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, a nationally representative sample of patients discharged from community hospitals in the United States, from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2012. Multivariable analysis of risk factors for adverse obstetric outcomes was performed for 19 926 women undergoing appendectomy or cholecystectomy during pregnancy and a scoring system for such risk factors was developed. Data analysis was conducted from January 1, 2015, to July 31, 2016. A composite measure including 7 adverse obstetrical outcomes throughout pregnancy and occurring before hospital discharge. Of the 19 926 women (mean [SD] age, 26 [6] years) in the study, 1018 adverse obstetrical events were recorded in 953 pregnant women (4.8%). The 3 most frequent adverse events were preterm delivery (360 [35.4%]), preterm labor without preterm delivery (269 [26.4%]), and miscarriage (262 [25.7%]). The risk factors associated most strongly with an adverse obstetrical outcome included cervical incompetence (adjusted odds ratio, 24.29; 95% CI, 7.48-78.81), preterm labor during current pregnancy (adjusted odds ratio, 18.34; 95% CI, 4.95-67.96), vaginitis or vulvovaginitis (adjusted odds ratio, 5.17; 95% CI, 2.19-12.23), and sepsis (adjusted odds ratio, 3.39; 95% CI, 2.08-5.51). A scoring system based on statistically significant variables classified the study sample into 3 risk groups corresponding to predicted probabilities of adverse obstetrical outcomes of 2.5% (≤4 points), 8.2% (5-8 points), and 21.8% (≥9 points). Approximately 5% of women experience adverse obstetrical outcomes after appendectomy

Gene polymorphisms and the risk of warfarin-induced bleeding complications at therapeutic international normalized ratio (INR)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pourgholi, Leyla

Background: Bleeding episodes commonly occur in patients on warfarin treatment even in those within therapeutic range of international normalized ratio (INR). The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of the 8 examined polymorphisms on the risk of bleeding complications in a sample of Iranian patients. Methods: A total of 552 warfarin treated patients who maintained on a target INR level of 2.0–3.5 for at least three consecutive intervals were enrolled from those attended our anticoagulation clinics. Ninety-two bleeding events were observed in 87 patients. The presences of the examined polymorphisms were analyzed using polymerase chain reaction-based restrictionmore » fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP). Results: Patients with the T allele in NQO1*2 (CT or TT genotypes) had a higher risk of bleeding than patients with the CC genotype (adjusted OR: 2.25, 95% CI: 1.37 to 3.70, P = 0.001). Those who were carriers of CYP2C9 one-variant haplotypes (*1/*2 or *1/*3) were also found to be associated with the higher risk of bleeding events. Compared to reference group (*1/*1), the odds of bleeding increased for carriers of one variant allele (*1/*2 or *1/*3) (adjusted OR: 1.75, 95% CI: 1.03 to 2.97, P = 0.039). Variant VKORC1, Factor VII, and EPHX1 genotypes were not significantly associated with the risk of bleeding events. Conclusion: The SNP C609T within NQO1 and haplotypes of CYP2C9 (1*2 or 1*3) are independently associated to bleeding complications of warfarin at normal INR. Further studies are required to confirm such associations in diverse racial and ethnic populations. - Highlights: • NQO1 C609T variant is associated with warfarin induced bleeding at therapeutic INR. • Haplotypes of CYP2C9 (1*2 or 1*3) are also associated with bleeding events. • VKORC1, Factor VII, and EPHX1 genotypes were not associated with bleeding risk.« less

Risk and Protective Factors at Age 16: Psychological Adjustment in Children With a Cleft Lip and/or Palate.

PubMed

Feragen, Kristin Billaud; Stock, Nicola Marie; Kvalem, Ingela Lundin

2015-09-01

Explore psychological functioning in adolescents with a cleft at age 16 from a broad perspective, including cognitive, emotional, behavioral, appearance-related, and psychosocial adjustment. High-risk groups were identified within each area of adjustment to investigate whether vulnerable adolescents were found across domains or whether risk was limited to specific areas of adjustment. Cross-sectional data based on psychological assessments at age 16 (N = 857). The effect of gender, cleft visibility, and the presence of an additional condition were investigated on all outcome variables. Results were compared with large national samples. Hopkins Symptom Checklist, Harter Self-Perception Scale for Adolescents, Child Experience Questionnaire, and Satisfaction With Appearance scale. The main factor influencing psychological adjustment across domains was gender, with girls in general reporting more psychological problems, as seen in reference groups. The presence of an additional condition also negatively affected some of the measures. No support was found for cleft visibility as a risk factor except for dissatisfaction with appearance. Correlation analyses of risk groups seem to point to an association between social and emotional risk and between social risk and dissatisfaction with appearance. Associations between other domains were found to be weak. The results point to areas of both risk and strength in adolescents born with a cleft lip and/or palate. Future research should investigate how protective factors could counteract potential risk in adolescents with a cleft.

Process monitoring in intensive care with the use of cumulative expected minus observed mortality and risk-adjusted P charts.

PubMed

Cockings, Jerome G L; Cook, David A; Iqbal, Rehana K

2006-02-01

A health care system is a complex adaptive system. The effect of a single intervention, incorporated into a complex clinical environment, may be different from that expected. A national database such as the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme in the UK represents a centralised monitoring, surveillance and reporting system for retrospective quality and comparative audit. This can be supplemented with real-time process monitoring at a local level for continuous process improvement, allowing early detection of the impact of both unplanned and deliberately imposed changes in the clinical environment. Demographic and UK Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) data were prospectively collected on all patients admitted to a UK regional hospital between 1 January 2003 and 30 June 2004 in accordance with the ICNARC Case Mix Programme. We present a cumulative expected minus observed (E-O) plot and the risk-adjusted p chart as methods of continuous process monitoring. We describe the construction and interpretation of these charts and show how they can be used to detect planned or unplanned organisational process changes affecting mortality outcomes. Five hundred and eighty-nine adult patients were included. The overall death rate was 0.78 of predicted. Calibration showed excess survival in ranges above 30% risk of death. The E-O plot confirmed a survival above that predicted. Small transient variations were seen in the slope that could represent random effects, or real but transient changes in the quality of care. The risk-adjusted p chart showed several observations below the 2 SD control limits of the expected mortality rate. These plots provide rapid analysis of risk-adjusted performance suitable for local application and interpretation. The E-O chart provided rapid easily visible feedback of changes in risk-adjusted mortality, while the risk-adjusted p chart allowed statistical evaluation. Local analysis of

State infant mortality: an ecologic study to determine modifiable risks and adjusted infant mortality rates.

PubMed

Paul, David A; Mackley, Amy; Locke, Robert G; Stefano, John L; Kroelinger, Charlan

2009-05-01

To determine factors contributing to state infant mortality rates (IMR) and develop an adjusted IMR in the United States for 2001 and 2002. Ecologic study of factors contributing to state IMR. State IMR for 2001 and 2002 were obtained from the United States linked death and birth certificate data from the National Center for Health Statistics. Factors investigated using multivariable linear regression included state racial demographics, ethnicity, state population, median income, education, teen birth rate, proportion of obesity, smoking during pregnancy, diabetes, hypertension, cesarean delivery, prenatal care, health insurance, self-report of mental illness, and number of in-vitro fertilization procedures. Final risk adjusted IMR's were standardized and states were compared with the United States adjusted rates. Models for IMR in individual states in 2001 (r2 = 0.66, P < 0.01) and 2002 (r2 = 0.81, P < 0.01) were tested. African-American race, teen birth rate, and smoking during pregnancy remained independently associated with state infant mortality rates for 2001 and 2002. Ninety five percent confidence intervals (CI) were calculated around the regression lines to model the expected IMR. After adjustment, some states maintained a consistent IMR; for instance, Vermont and New Hampshire remained low, while Delaware and Louisiana remained high. However, other states such as Mississippi, which have traditionally high infant mortality rates, remained within the expected 95% CI for IMR after adjustment indicating confounding affected the initial unadjusted rates. Non-modifiable demographic variables, including the percentage of non-Hispanic African-American and Hispanic populations of the state are major factors contributing to individual variation in state IMR. Race and ethnicity may confound or modify the IMR in states that shifted inside or outside the 95% CI following adjustment. Other factors including smoking during pregnancy and teen birth rate, which are

Funding issues for Victorian hospitals: the risk-adjusted vision beyond casemix funding.

PubMed

Antioch, K; Walsh, M

2000-01-01

This paper discusses casemix funding issues in Victoria impacting on teaching hospitals. For casemix payments to be acceptable, the average price and cost weights must be set at an appropriate standard. The average price is based on a normative, policy basis rather than benchmarking. The 'averaging principle' inherent in cost weights has resulted in some AN-DRG weights being too low for teaching hospitals that are key State-wide providers of high complexity services such as neurosurgery and trauma. Casemix data have been analysed using international risk adjustment methodologies to successfully negotiate with the Victorian State Government for specified grants for several high complexity AN-DRGs. A risk-adjusted capitation funding model has also been developed for cystic fibrosis patients treated by The Alfred, called an Australian Health Maintenance Organisation (AHMO). This will facilitate the development of similar models by both the Victorian and Federal governments.

Direct risk standardisation: a new method for comparing casemix adjusted event rates using complex models

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Comparison of outcomes between populations or centres may be confounded by any casemix differences and standardisation is carried out to avoid this. However, when the casemix adjustment models are large and complex, direct standardisation has been described as “practically impossible”, and indirect standardisation may lead to unfair comparisons. We propose a new method of directly standardising for risk rather than standardising for casemix which overcomes these problems. Methods Using a casemix model which is the same model as would be used in indirect standardisation, the risk in individuals is estimated. Risk categories are defined, and event rates in each category for each centre to be compared are calculated. A weighted sum of the risk category specific event rates is then calculated. We have illustrated this method using data on 6 million admissions to 146 hospitals in England in 2007/8 and an existing model with over 5000 casemix combinations, and a second dataset of 18,668 adult emergency admissions to 9 centres in the UK and overseas and a published model with over 20,000 casemix combinations and a continuous covariate. Results Substantial differences between conventional directly casemix standardised rates and rates from direct risk standardisation (DRS) were found. Results based on DRS were very similar to Standardised Mortality Ratios (SMRs) obtained from indirect standardisation, with similar standard errors. Conclusions Direct risk standardisation using our proposed method is as straightforward as using conventional direct or indirect standardisation, always enables fair comparisons of performance to be made, can use continuous casemix covariates, and was found in our examples to have similar standard errors to the SMR. It should be preferred when there is a risk that conventional direct or indirect standardisation will lead to unfair comparisons. PMID:24168424

Direct risk standardisation: a new method for comparing casemix adjusted event rates using complex models.

PubMed

Nicholl, Jon; Jacques, Richard M; Campbell, Michael J

2013-10-29

Comparison of outcomes between populations or centres may be confounded by any casemix differences and standardisation is carried out to avoid this. However, when the casemix adjustment models are large and complex, direct standardisation has been described as "practically impossible", and indirect standardisation may lead to unfair comparisons. We propose a new method of directly standardising for risk rather than standardising for casemix which overcomes these problems. Using a casemix model which is the same model as would be used in indirect standardisation, the risk in individuals is estimated. Risk categories are defined, and event rates in each category for each centre to be compared are calculated. A weighted sum of the risk category specific event rates is then calculated. We have illustrated this method using data on 6 million admissions to 146 hospitals in England in 2007/8 and an existing model with over 5000 casemix combinations, and a second dataset of 18,668 adult emergency admissions to 9 centres in the UK and overseas and a published model with over 20,000 casemix combinations and a continuous covariate. Substantial differences between conventional directly casemix standardised rates and rates from direct risk standardisation (DRS) were found. Results based on DRS were very similar to Standardised Mortality Ratios (SMRs) obtained from indirect standardisation, with similar standard errors. Direct risk standardisation using our proposed method is as straightforward as using conventional direct or indirect standardisation, always enables fair comparisons of performance to be made, can use continuous casemix covariates, and was found in our examples to have similar standard errors to the SMR. It should be preferred when there is a risk that conventional direct or indirect standardisation will lead to unfair comparisons.

Rural-Urban Differences in Medicare Quality Outcomes and the Impact of Risk Adjustment.

PubMed

Henning-Smith, Carrie; Kozhimannil, Katy; Casey, Michelle; Prasad, Shailendra; Moscovice, Ira

2017-09-01

There has been considerable debate in recent years about whether, and how, to risk-adjust quality measures for sociodemographic characteristics. However, geographic location, especially rurality, has been largely absent from the discussion. To examine differences by rurality in quality outcomes, and the impact of adjustment for individual and community-level sociodemographic characteristics on quality outcomes. The 2012 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, Access to Care module, combined with the 2012 County Health Rankings. All data used were publicly available, secondary data. We merged the 2012 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey data with the 2012 County Health Rankings data using county of residence. We compared 6 unadjusted quality of care measures for Medicare beneficiaries (satisfaction with care, blood pressure checked, cholesterol checked, flu shot receipt, change in health status, and all-cause annual readmission) by rurality (rural noncore, micropolitan, and metropolitan). We then ran nested multivariable logistic regression models to assess the impact of adjusting for community and individual-level sociodemographic characteristics to determine whether these mediate the rurality difference in quality of care. The relationship between rurality and change in health status was mediated by the inclusion of community-level characteristics; however, adjusting for community and individual-level characteristics caused differences by rurality to emerge in 2 of the measures: blood pressure checked and cholesterol checked. For all quality scores, model fit improved after adding community and individual characteristics. Quality is multifaceted and is impacted by individual and community-level socio-demographic characteristics, as well as by geographic location. Current debates about risk-adjustment procedures should take rurality into account.

Speech perception at positive signal-to-noise ratios using adaptive adjustment of time compression.

PubMed

Schlueter, Anne; Brand, Thomas; Lemke, Ulrike; Nitzschner, Stefan; Kollmeier, Birger; Holube, Inga

2015-11-01

Positive signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) characterize listening situations most relevant for hearing-impaired listeners in daily life and should therefore be considered when evaluating hearing aid algorithms. For this, a speech-in-noise test was developed and evaluated, in which the background noise is presented at fixed positive SNRs and the speech rate (i.e., the time compression of the speech material) is adaptively adjusted. In total, 29 younger and 12 older normal-hearing, as well as 24 older hearing-impaired listeners took part in repeated measurements. Younger normal-hearing and older hearing-impaired listeners conducted one of two adaptive methods which differed in adaptive procedure and step size. Analysis of the measurements with regard to list length and estimation strategy for thresholds resulted in a practical method measuring the time compression for 50% recognition. This method uses time-compression adjustment and step sizes according to Versfeld and Dreschler [(2002). J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 111, 401-408], with sentence scoring, lists of 30 sentences, and a maximum likelihood method for threshold estimation. Evaluation of the procedure showed that older participants obtained higher test-retest reliability compared to younger participants. Depending on the group of listeners, one or two lists are required for training prior to data collection.

Adjusted-dose warfarin versus low-intensity, fixed-dose warfarin plus aspirin for high-risk patients with atrial fibrillation: Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation III randomised clinical trial.

PubMed

1996-09-07

Adjusted-dose warfarin is highly efficacious for prevention of ischaemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, this treatment carries a risk of bleeding and the need for frequent medical monitoring. We sought an alternative that would be safer and easier to administer to patients with AF who are at high-risk of thromboembolism. 1044 patients with AF and with at least one thromboembolic risk factor (congestive heart failure or left ventricular fractional shortening < or = 25%, previous thromboembolism, systolic blood pressure of more than 160 mm Hg at study enrollment, or being a woman aged over 75 years) were randomly assigned either a combination of low-intensity, fixed-dose warfarin (international normalised ratio [INR] 1.2-1.5 for initial dose adjustment) and aspirin (325 mg/day) or adjusted-dose warfarin (INR 2.0-3.0). Drugs were given open-labelled. The mean INR during follow-up of patients taking combination therapy (n = 521) was 1.3, compared with 2.4 for those taking adjusted-dose warfarin (n = 523). During follow-up, 54% of INRs in patients taking combination therapy were 1.2-1.5 and 34% were less than 1.2. The trial was stopped after a mean, follow-up of 1.1 years when the rate of ischaemic stroke and systemic embolism (primary events) in patients given combination therapy (7.9% per year) was significantly higher than in those given adjusted-dose warfarin (1.9% per year) at an interim analysis (p < 0.0001), an absolute reduction of 6.0% per year (95% Cl 3.4, 8.6) by adjusted-dose warfarin. The annual rates of disabling stroke (5.6% vs 1.7%, p = 0.0007) and of primary event or vascular death (11.8% vs 6.4%, p = 0.002), were also higher with combination therapy. The rates of major bleeding were similar in both treatment groups. Low-intensity, fixed-dose warfarin plus aspirin in this regimen is insufficient for stroke prevention in patients with non-valvular AF at high-risk for thromboembolism; adjusted-dose warfarin (target INR 2

Persistent sex-by-environment effects on offspring fitness and sex-ratio adjustment in a wild bird population.

PubMed

Bowers, E Keith; Thompson, Charles F; Sakaluk, Scott K

2015-03-01

A major component of sex-allocation theory, the Trivers-Willard model (TWM), posits that sons and daughters are differentially affected by variation in the rearing environment. In many species, the amount of parental care received is expected to have differing effects on the fitness of males and females. When this occurs, the TWM predicts that selection should favour adjustment of the offspring sex ratio in relation to the expected fitness return from offspring. However, evidence for sex-by-environment effects is mixed, and little is known about the adaptive significance of producing either sex. Here, we test whether offspring sex ratios vary according to predictions of the TWM in the house wren (Troglodytes aedon, Vieillot). We also test the assumption of a sex-by-environment effect on offspring using two experiments, one in which we manipulated age differences among nestlings within broods, and another in which we held nestling age constant but manipulated brood size. As predicted, females with high investment ability overproduced sons relative to those with lower ability. Males were also overproduced early within breeding seasons. In our experiments, the body mass of sons was more strongly affected by the sibling-competitive environment and resource availability than that of daughters: males grew heavier than females when reared in good conditions but were lighter than females when in poor conditions. Parents rearing broods with 1:1 sex ratios were more productive than parents rearing broods biased more strongly towards sons or daughters, suggesting that selection favours the production of mixed-sex broods. However, differences in the condition of offspring as neonates persisted to adulthood, and their reproductive success as adults varied with the body mass of sons, but not daughters, prior to independence from parental care. Thus, selection should favour slight but predictable variations in the sex ratio in relation to the quality of offspring that parents are

School Adjustment of Pupils with ADHD: Cognitive, Emotional and Temperament Risk Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sanchez-Perez, Noelia; Gonzalez-Salinas, Carmen

2013-01-01

From different research perspectives, the cognitive and emotional characteristics associated with ADHD in children have been identified as risk factors for the development of diverse adjustment problems in the school context. Research in nonclinical population can additionally help in understanding ADHD deficits, since children with specific…

A methodological approach to identify external factors for indicator-based risk adjustment illustrated by a cataract surgery register

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Risk adjustment is crucial for comparison of outcome in medical care. Knowledge of the external factors that impact measured outcome but that cannot be influenced by the physician is a prerequisite for this adjustment. To date, a universal and reproducible method for identification of the relevant external factors has not been published. The selection of external factors in current quality assurance programmes is mainly based on expert opinion. We propose and demonstrate a methodology for identification of external factors requiring risk adjustment of outcome indicators and we apply it to a cataract surgery register. Methods Defined test criteria to determine the relevance for risk adjustment are “clinical relevance” and “statistical significance”. Clinical relevance of the association is presumed when observed success rates of the indicator in the presence and absence of the external factor exceed a pre-specified range of 10%. Statistical significance of the association between the external factor and outcome indicators is assessed by univariate stratification and multivariate logistic regression adjustment. The cataract surgery register was set up as part of a German multi-centre register trial for out-patient cataract surgery in three high-volume surgical sites. A total of 14,924 patient follow-ups have been documented since 2005. Eight external factors potentially relevant for risk adjustment were related to the outcome indicators “refractive accuracy” and “visual rehabilitation” 2–5 weeks after surgery. Results The clinical relevance criterion confirmed 2 (“refractive accuracy”) and 5 (“visual rehabilitation”) external factors. The significance criterion was verified in two ways. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed almost identical external factors: 4 were related to “refractive accuracy” and 7 (6) to “visual rehabilitation”. Two (“refractive accuracy”) and 5 (“visual rehabilitation”) factors

High population attributable fractions of myocardial infarction associated with waist–hip ratio

PubMed Central

Igland, Jannicke; Vollset, Stein Emil; Sulo, Gerhard; Eide, Geir Egil; Tell, Grethe S.

2016-01-01

Objective To estimate population attributable fractions (PAF) of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) associated with anthropometric measures by sex and age. Methods The Cohort of Norway study identified 140,790 participants free of cardiovascular disease, 1994‐2003. Participants were followed for AMI through 2009 by record linkages through the Cardiovascular Disease in Norway Project. PAFs were adjusted for age, smoking, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, and the ratio of total cholesterol to high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol. Results The PAFs associated with a waist–hip ratio (WHR) in the top two quintiles were 26.1% (95% confidence interval, CI 14.6–36.1) for middle‐aged women (<60 years, mean of 41 years) and 9.3% (95% CI 3.0–15.1) for similarly aged men after adjustment for body mass index (BMI) and conventional risk factors. However, PAFs associated with anthropometric measures in elderly participants (≥ 60 years, mean of 70 years) were non‐significant in multivariable analyses. Also, WHR was a significant predictor of AMI among men and women without an enlarged waist circumference (<102 cm for men and < 88 cm for women) in adjusted analyses. Conclusions WHR measurements could improve identification of at‐risk individuals above and beyond that of conventional risk factors, BMI, or an enlarged waist circumference. PMID:27030172

Comparative study of the Aristotle Comprehensive Complexity and the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery scores.

PubMed

Bojan, Mirela; Gerelli, Sébastien; Gioanni, Simone; Pouard, Philippe; Vouhé, Pascal

2011-09-01

The Aristotle Comprehensive Complexity (ACC) and the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) scores have been proposed for complexity adjustment in the analysis of outcome after congenital heart surgery. Previous studies found RACHS-1 to be a better predictor of outcome than the Aristotle Basic Complexity score. We compared the ability to predict operative mortality and morbidity between ACC, the latest update of the Aristotle method and RACHS-1. Morbidity was assessed by length of intensive care unit stay. We retrospectively enrolled patients undergoing congenital heart surgery. We modeled each score as a continuous variable, mortality as a binary variable, and length of stay as a censored variable. We compared performance between mortality and morbidity models using likelihood ratio tests for nested models and paired concordance statistics. Among all 1,384 patients enrolled, 30-day mortality rate was 3.5% and median length of intensive care unit stay was 3 days. Both scores strongly related to mortality, but ACC made better prediction than RACHS-1; c-indexes 0.87 (0.84, 0.91) vs 0.75 (0.65, 0.82). Both scores related to overall length of stay only during the first postoperative week, but ACC made better predictions than RACHS-1; U statistic=0.22, p<0.001. No significant difference was noted after adjusting RACHS-1 models on age, prematurity, and major extracardiac abnormalities. The ACC was a better predictor of operative mortality and length of intensive care unit stay than RACHS-1. In order to achieve similar performance, regression models including RACHS-1 need to be further adjusted on age, prematurity, and major extracardiac abnormalities. Copyright © 2011 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Immunodeficiency, AIDS-related pneumonia, and risk of lung cancer among HIV-infected individuals.

PubMed

Marcus, Julia L; Leyden, Wendy A; Chao, Chun R; Horberg, Michael A; Klein, Daniel B; Quesenberry, Charles P; Towner, William J; Silverberg, Michael J

2017-04-24

The objective is to clarify the role of immunodeficiency and pneumonia in elevated lung cancer risk among HIV-infected individuals. Cohort study of HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected adults in a large integrated healthcare system in California during 1996-2011. We used Poisson models to obtain rate ratios for lung cancer associated with HIV infection, overall and stratified by recent CD4 cells/μl (HIV-uninfected as reference group), with χ tests for trends across CD4 strata. Fully adjusted models included demographics, cancer risk factors (smoking, drug/alcohol abuse, overweight/obesity), and prior pneumonia. Among 24 768 HIV-infected and 257 600 HIV-uninfected individuals, the lung cancer rate per 100 000 person-years was 66 (n = 80 events) for HIV-infected and 33 (n = 506 events) for HIV-uninfected individuals [rate ratio 2.0, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.7-2.2]. Overall, HIV-infected individuals were at increased risk of lung cancer after adjustment for demographics and cancer risk factors (rate ratio 1.4, 95% CI: 1.1-1.7), but not after additional adjustment for pneumonia (rate ratio 1.2, 95% CI: 0.9-1.6). Lower CD4 cell counts were associated with higher risk of lung cancer in unadjusted and demographics-adjusted models (P < 0.001 for all), but this trend did not remain after adjustment for cancer risk factors and pneumonia. Compared with HIV-uninfected individuals, HIV-infected individuals with CD4 less than 200 cells/μl were not at increased risk of lung cancer in fully adjusted models. The increased lung cancer risk among HIV patients is attributable to differences in demographics, risk factors such as smoking, and history of pneumonia. Immunodeficiency does not appear to have an independent effect on lung cancer risk.

Relation of Parental Transitions to Boys' Adjustment Problems: I.A. Linear Hypothesis II. Mothers at Risk for Transitions and Unskilled Parenting.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Capaldi, D. M.; Patterson, G. R.

1991-01-01

Examined the adjustment of boys from intact, single-mother, stepfather, and multiple-transition families. Boys who had experienced multiple transitions showed the poorest adjustment. The antisocial mother was most at risk for transitions and unskilled parenting practices, which in turn placed her son at risk for poor adjustment. (BC)

Risk Preferences and Predictions about Others: No Association with 2D:4D Ratio

PubMed Central

Lima de Miranda, Katharina; Neyse, Levent; Schmidt, Ulrich

2018-01-01

Prenatal androgen exposure affects the brain development of the fetus which may facilitate certain behaviors and decision patterns in the later life. The ratio between the lengths of second and the fourth fingers (2D:4D) is a negative biomarker of the ratio between prenatal androgen and estrogen exposure and men typically have lower ratios than women. In line with the typical findings suggesting that women are more risk averse than men, several studies have also shown negative relationships between 2D:4D and risk taking although the evidence is not conclusive. Previous studies have also reported that both men and women believe women are more risk averse than men. In the current study, we re-test the relationship between 2D:4D and risk preferences in a German student sample and also investigate whether the 2D:4D ratio is associated with people’s perceptions about others’ risk preferences. Following an incentivized risk elicitation task, we asked all participants their predictions about (i) others’ responses (without sex specification), (ii) men’s responses, and (iii) women’s responses; then measured their 2D:4D ratios. In line with the previous findings, female participants in our sample were more risk averse. While both men and women underestimated other participants’ (non sex-specific) and women’s risky decisions on average, their predictions about men were accurate. We also found evidence for the false consensus effect, as risky choices are positively correlated with predictions about other participants’ risky choices. The 2D:4D ratio was not directly associated either with risk preferences or the predictions of other participants’ choices. An unexpected finding was that women with mid-range levels of 2D:4D estimated significantly larger sex differences in participants’ decisions. This finding needs further testing in future studies. PMID:29472846

Coherent Risk-Adjusted Decisions Over Time: a Bilevel Programming Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-23

AFRL-AFOSR-VA-TR-2015-0310 Coherent Risk-Adjusted Decisions Over Time: a Bilevel Programming Approach Jonathan Eckstein RUTGERS THE STATE UNIVERSITY...FA9550-11-1-0164 5b. GRANT NUMBER FA9550-11-1-0164 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) Eckstein, Jonathan Ruszczynski, Andrzej 5d. PROJECT... Jonathan Eckstein a. REPORT U b. ABSTRACT U c. THIS PAGE U 19b. TELEPHONE NUMBER (Include area code) 848-445-0510 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8/98

[Risk adjusted assessment of quality of perinatal centers - results of perinatal/neonatal quality surveillance in Saxonia].

PubMed

Koch, R; Gmyrek, D; Vogtmann, Ch

2005-12-01

The weak point of the country-wide perinatal/neonatal quality surveillance as a tool for evaluation of achievements of a distinct clinic, is the ignorance of interhospital differences in the case-mix of patients. Therefore, that approach can not result in a reliable bench marking. To adjust the results of quality assessment of different hospitals according to their risk profile of patients by multivariate analysis. The perinatal/neonatal data base of 12.783 newborns of the saxonian quality surveillance from 1998 to 2000 was analyzed. 4 relevant quality indicators of newborn outcome -- a) severe intraventricular hemorrhage in preterm infants < 1500 g, b) death in hospital of preterm infants < 1500 g, c) death in newborns with birth weight > 2500 g and d) hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy -- were targeted to find out specific risk predictors by considering 26 risk factors. A logistic regression model was used to develop the risk predictors. Risk predictors for the 4 quality indicators could be described by 3 - 9 out of 26 analyzed risk factors. The AUC (ROC)-values for these quality indicators were 82, 89, 89 and 89 %, what signifies their reliability. Using the new specific predictors for calculation the risk adjusted incidence rates of quality indicator yielded in some remarkable changes. The apparent differences in the outcome criteria of analyzed hospitals were found to be much less pronounced. The application of the proposed method for risk adjustment of quality indicators makes it possible to perform a more objective comparison of neonatal outcome criteria between different hospitals or regions.

Risk-adjusted antibiotic consumption in 34 public acute hospitals in Ireland, 2006 to 2014

PubMed Central

Oza, Ajay; Donohue, Fionnuala; Johnson, Howard; Cunney, Robert

2016-01-01

As antibiotic consumption rates between hospitals can vary depending on the characteristics of the patients treated, risk-adjustment that compensates for the patient-based variation is required to assess the impact of any stewardship measures. The aim of this study was to investigate the usefulness of patient-based administrative data variables for adjusting aggregate hospital antibiotic consumption rates. Data on total inpatient antibiotics and six broad subclasses were sourced from 34 acute hospitals from 2006 to 2014. Aggregate annual patient administration data were divided into explanatory variables, including major diagnostic categories, for each hospital. Multivariable regression models were used to identify factors affecting antibiotic consumption. Coefficient of variation of the root mean squared errors (CV-RMSE) for the total antibiotic usage model was very good (11%), however, the value for two of the models was poor (> 30%). The overall inpatient antibiotic consumption increased from 82.5 defined daily doses (DDD)/100 bed-days used in 2006 to 89.2 DDD/100 bed-days used in 2014; the increase was not significant after risk-adjustment. During the same period, consumption of carbapenems increased significantly, while usage of fluoroquinolones decreased. In conclusion, patient-based administrative data variables are useful for adjusting hospital antibiotic consumption rates, although additional variables should also be employed. PMID:27541730

Risk Factors and Risk Stratification for Adverse Obstetrical Outcomes After Appendectomy or Cholecystectomy During Pregnancy

PubMed Central

Guglielminotti, Jean; Miller, Russell; Landau, Ruth; Smiley, Richard; Li, Guohua

2017-01-01

Importance Identification of risk factors for adverse obstetrical outcomes after appendectomy and cholecystectomy during pregnancy is necessary for evidence-based risk reduction and adequate patient counseling. Objectives To identify risk factors for adverse obstetrical outcomes after appendectomy and cholecystectomy during pregnancy and stratify the risk of such outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants A cohort study was conducted using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, a nationally representative sample of patients discharged from community hospitals in the United States, from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2012. Multivariable analysis of risk factors for adverse obstetric outcomes was performed for 19 926 women undergoing appendectomy or cholecystectomy during pregnancy and a scoring system for such risk factors was developed. Data analysis was conducted from January 1, 2015, to July 31, 2016. Main Outcomes and Measures A composite measure including 7 adverse obstetrical outcomes throughout pregnancy and occurring before hospital discharge. Results Of the 19 926 women (mean [SD] age, 26 [6] years) in the study, 1018 adverse obstetrical events were recorded in 953 pregnant women (4.8%). The 3 most frequent adverse events were preterm delivery (360 [35.4%]), preterm labor without preterm delivery (269 [26.4%]), and miscarriage (262 [25.7%]). The risk factors associated most strongly with an adverse obstetrical outcome included cervical incompetence (adjusted odds ratio, 24.29; 95% CI, 7.48-78.81), preterm labor during current pregnancy (adjusted odds ratio, 18.34; 95% CI, 4.95-67.96), vaginitis or vulvovaginitis (adjusted odds ratio, 5.17; 95% CI, 2.19-12.23), and sepsis (adjusted odds ratio, 3.39; 95% CI, 2.08-5.51). A scoring system based on statistically significant variables classified the study sample into 3 risk groups corresponding to predicted probabilities of adverse obstetrical outcomes of 2.5% (≤4 points), 8.2% (5-8 points), and 21.8% (≥9

Relations of Growth in Effortful Control to Family Income, Cumulative Risk, and Adjustment in Preschool-age Children

PubMed Central

Lengua, Liliana J.; Moran, Lyndsey; Zalewski, Maureen; Ruberry, Erika; Kiff, Cara; Thompson, Stephanie

2014-01-01

The study examined growth in effortful control (executive control, delay ability) in relation to income, cumulative risk (aggregate of demographic and psychosocial risk factors), and adjustment in 306 preschool-age children (50% girls, 50% boys) from families representing a range of income (29% at- or near-poverty; 28% lower-income; 25% middle-income; 18% upper-income), with 4 assessments starting at 36–40 mos. Income was directly related to levels of executive control and delay ability. Cumulative risk accounted for the effects of income on delay ability but not executive control. Higher initial executive control and slope of executive control and delay ability predicted academic readiness, whereas levels, but not growth, of executive control and delay ability predicted social competence and adjustment problems. Low income is a marker for lower effortful control, which demonstrates additive or mediating effects in the relation of income to children’s preschool adjustment. PMID:25253079

Identifying Military and Combat Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment: Comparing High and Low Risk Military Families and Civilian Families

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

Award Number: W81XWH-12-2-0034 TITLE: Identifying Military and Combat-Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment: Comparing High and Low Risk...2. REPORT TYPE Annual 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 15 May - 2013 - 14 May 2014. Identifying Military and Combat-Specific Risk Factors for Child ...parents (N=200) whose spouse/partner is currently in a “low perceived risk” deployment and has a child between the age of 3 and 7 and comparison

Noninferiority trial designs for odds ratios and risk differences.

PubMed

Hilton, Joan F

2010-04-30

This study presents constrained maximum likelihood derivations of the design parameters of noninferiority trials for binary outcomes with the margin defined on the odds ratio (ψ) or risk-difference (δ) scale. The derivations show that, for trials in which the group-specific response rates are equal under the point-alternative hypothesis, the common response rate, π(N), is a fixed design parameter whose value lies between the control and experimental rates hypothesized at the point-null, {π(C), π(E)}. We show that setting π(N) equal to the value of π(C) that holds under H(0) underestimates the overall sample size requirement. Given {π(C), ψ} or {π(C), δ} and the type I and II error rates, or algorithm finds clinically meaningful design values of π(N), and the corresponding minimum asymptotic sample size, N=n(E)+n(C), and optimal allocation ratio, γ=n(E)/n(C). We find that optimal allocations are increasingly imbalanced as ψ increases, with γ(ψ)<1 and γ(δ)≈1/γ(ψ), and that ranges of allocation ratios map to the minimum sample size. The latter characteristic allows trialists to consider trade-offs between optimal allocation at a smaller N and a preferred allocation at a larger N. For designs with relatively large margins (e.g. ψ>2.5), trial results that are presented on both scales will differ in power, with more power lost if the study is designed on the risk-difference scale and reported on the odds ratio scale than vice versa. 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Household adjustment to flood risk: a survey of coastal residents in Texas and Florida, United States.

PubMed

Brody, Samuel D; Lee, Yoonjeong; Highfield, Wesley E

2017-07-01

Individual households have increasingly borne responsibility for reducing the adverse impacts of flooding on their property. Little observational research has been conducted, however, at the household level to examine the major factors contributing to the selection of a particular household adjustment. This study addresses the issue by evaluating statistically the factors influencing the adoption of various household flood hazard adjustments. The results indicate that respondents with higher-value homes or longer housing tenure are more likely to adopt structural and expensive techniques. In addition, the information source and the Community Rating System (CRS) score for the jurisdiction where the household is located have a significant bearing on household adjustment. In contrast, proximity to risk zones and risk perception yield somewhat mixed results or behave counter to assumptions in the literature. The study findings provide insights that will be of value to governments and decision-makers interested in encouraging homeowners to take protective action given increasing flood risk. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

Risk adjustment models for short-term outcomes after surgical resection for oesophagogastric cancer.

PubMed

Fischer, C; Lingsma, H; Hardwick, R; Cromwell, D A; Steyerberg, E; Groene, O

2016-01-01

Outcomes for oesophagogastric cancer surgery are compared with the aim of benchmarking quality of care. Adjusting for patient characteristics is crucial to avoid biased comparisons between providers. The study objective was to develop a case-mix adjustment model for comparing 30- and 90-day mortality and anastomotic leakage rates after oesophagogastric cancer resections. The study reviewed existing models, considered expert opinion and examined audit data in order to select predictors that were consequently used to develop a case-mix adjustment model for the National Oesophago-Gastric Cancer Audit, covering England and Wales. Models were developed on patients undergoing surgical resection between April 2011 and March 2013 using logistic regression. Model calibration and discrimination was quantified using a bootstrap procedure. Most existing risk models for oesophagogastric resections were methodologically weak, outdated or based on detailed laboratory data that are not generally available. In 4882 patients with oesophagogastric cancer used for model development, 30- and 90-day mortality rates were 2·3 and 4·4 per cent respectively, and 6·2 per cent of patients developed an anastomotic leak. The internally validated models, based on predictors selected from the literature, showed moderate discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve 0·646 for 30-day mortality, 0·664 for 90-day mortality and 0·587 for anastomotic leakage) and good calibration. Based on available data, three case-mix adjustment models for postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing curative surgery for oesophagogastric cancer were developed. These models should be used for risk adjustment when assessing hospital performance in the National Health Service, and tested in other large health systems. © 2015 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Waist-to-height ratio is an indicator of metabolic risk in children].

PubMed

Valle-Leal, Jaime; Abundis-Castro, Leticia; Hernández-Escareño, Juan; Flores-Rubio, Salvador

2016-01-01

Abdominal fat, particularly visceral, is associated with a high risk of metabolic complications. The waist-height ratio (WHtR) is used to assess abdominal fat in individuals of all ages. To determine the ability of the waist-to-height ratio to detect metabolic risk in mexican schoolchildren. A study was conducted on children between 6 and 12 years. Obesity was diagnosed as a body mass index (BMI) ≥ 85th percentile, and an ICE ≥0.5 was considered abdominal obesity. Blood levels of glucose, cholesterol and triglycerides were measured. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive and negative value, area under curve, the positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio of the WHtR and BMI were calculated in order to identify metabolic alterations. WHtR and BMI were compared to determine which had the best diagnostic efficiency. Of the 223 children included in the study, 51 had hypertriglyceridaemia, 27 with hypercholesterolaemia, and 9 with hyperglycaemia. On comparing the diagnostic efficiency of WHtR with that of BMI, there was a sensitivity of 100% vs. 56% for hyperglycaemia, 93 vs. 70% for cholesterol, and 76 vs. 59% for hypertriglyceridaemia. The specificity, negative predictive value, positive predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and area under curve were also higher for WHtR. The WHtR is a more efficient indicator than BMI in identifying metabolic risk in mexican school-age. Copyright © 2015 Sociedad Chilena de Pediatría. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Risk-adjusted payment and performance assessment for primary care.

PubMed

Ash, Arlene S; Ellis, Randall P

2012-08-01

Many wish to change incentives for primary care practices through bundled population-based payments and substantial performance feedback and bonus payments. Recognizing patient differences in costs and outcomes is crucial, but customized risk adjustment for such purposes is underdeveloped. Using MarketScan's claims-based data on 17.4 million commercially insured lives, we modeled bundled payment to support expected primary care activity levels (PCAL) and 9 patient outcomes for performance assessment. We evaluated models using 457,000 people assigned to 436 primary care physician panels, and among 13,000 people in a distinct multipayer medical home implementation with commercially insured, Medicare, and Medicaid patients. Each outcome is separately predicted from age, sex, and diagnoses. We define the PCAL outcome as a subset of all costs that proxies the bundled payment needed for comprehensive primary care. Other expected outcomes are used to establish targets against which actual performance can be fairly judged. We evaluate model performance using R(2)'s at patient and practice levels, and within policy-relevant subgroups. The PCAL model explains 67% of variation in its outcome, performing well across diverse patient ages, payers, plan types, and provider specialties; it explains 72% of practice-level variation. In 9 performance measures, the outcome-specific models explain 17%-86% of variation at the practice level, often substantially outperforming a generic score like the one used for full capitation payments in Medicare: for example, with grouped R(2)'s of 47% versus 5% for predicting "prescriptions for antibiotics of concern." Existing data can support the risk-adjusted bundled payment calculations and performance assessments needed to encourage desired transformations in primary care.

Triglyceride-to-HDL-cholesterol ratio and metabolic syndrome as contributors to cardiovascular risk in overweight patients.

PubMed

Marotta, Teodoro; Russo, Barbara F; Ferrara, L Aldo

2010-08-01

Insulin resistance increases cardiovascular risk of obese patients. Triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (TG/HDL) >or=3.0 (in mg/dl) is a marker of insulin resistance in overweight persons. We aimed at assessing cardiovascular risk profile in 301 overweight elderly Neapolitan outpatients, according to TG/HDL ratio and metabolic syndrome (MS), diagnosed by National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) and International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria. TG/HDL ratio was >or=3.0 in 97 patients (group A) and <3.0 in 204 (group B). Overall, 93-97% of group A patients and 38-51% of group B patients had MS, depending on the diagnostic criterion. Group A patients with MS had significantly higher waist-to-hip ratio, total and non-HDL cholesterol than group B patients with MS. In group B, MS and non-MS patients had similar waist-to-hip ratio, blood pressure, total and non-HDL cholesterol. Ten year coronary risk, calculated by the Framingham equations (n = 243), was 10.3 +/- 5% in group B, non-MS patients; 13.1 +/- 6% in group B, MS patients; 19.9 +/- 8% in group A (F = 32.8; P < 0.001). At the multiple regression analysis, TG/HDL ratio was associated with coronary risk (r(2) = 0.227) more closely than gender, blood pressure, waist-to-hip ratio, non HDL cholesterol, and MS considered as a whole. A separate regression analysis showed that the logarithmically transformed TG/HDL ratio, an index of the HDL cholesterol esterification rate, is also associated with coronary risk (r(2) = 0.252). Thus, TG/HDL ratio could help to characterize high-risk overweight patients deserving a special therapeutic effort. Cardiovascular risk profile of insulin-sensitive patients, identified by lower values of this parameter, is only moderately affected by MS.

Odds per Adjusted Standard Deviation: Comparing Strengths of Associations for Risk Factors Measured on Different Scales and Across Diseases and Populations

PubMed Central

Hopper, John L.

2015-01-01

How can the “strengths” of risk factors, in the sense of how well they discriminate cases from controls, be compared when they are measured on different scales such as continuous, binary, and integer? Given that risk estimates take into account other fitted and design-related factors—and that is how risk gradients are interpreted—so should the presentation of risk gradients. Therefore, for each risk factor X0, I propose using appropriate regression techniques to derive from appropriate population data the best fitting relationship between the mean of X0 and all the other covariates fitted in the model or adjusted for by design (X1, X2, … , Xn). The odds per adjusted standard deviation (OPERA) presents the risk association for X0 in terms of the change in risk per s = standard deviation of X0 adjusted for X1, X2, … , Xn, rather than the unadjusted standard deviation of X0 itself. If the increased risk is relative risk (RR)-fold over A adjusted standard deviations, then OPERA = exp[ln(RR)/A] = RRs. This unifying approach is illustrated by considering breast cancer and published risk estimates. OPERA estimates are by definition independent and can be used to compare the predictive strengths of risk factors across diseases and populations. PMID:26520360

Toward the Development of Integrative Risk-Adjusted Measures of Quality Using Large Clinical Data Bases: The Case of Anesthesia Services.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fleming, Steven T.

1992-01-01

The concept of risk-adjusted measures of quality is discussed, and a methodology is proposed for risk-adjusting and integrating multiple adverse outcomes of anesthesia services into measures for quality assurance and quality improvement programs. Although designed for a new anesthesiology database, the methods should apply to other health…

A Low Peripheral Blood CD4/CD8 Ratio Is Associated with Pulmonary Emphysema in HIV.

PubMed

Triplette, Matthew; Attia, Engi F; Akgün, Kathleen M; Soo Hoo, Guy W; Freiberg, Matthew S; Butt, Adeel A; Wongtrakool, Cherry; Goetz, Matthew Bidwell; Brown, Sheldon T; Graber, Christopher J; Huang, Laurence; Crothers, Kristina

2017-01-01

The prevalence of emphysema is higher among HIV-infected (HIV+) individuals compared to HIV-uninfected persons. While greater tobacco use contributes, HIV-related effects on immunity likely confer additional risk. Low peripheral blood CD4+ to CD8+ T-lymphocyte (CD4/CD8) ratio may reflect chronic inflammation in HIV and may be a marker of chronic lung disease in this population. Therefore, we sought to determine whether the CD4/CD8 ratio was associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), particularly the emphysema subtype, in a cohort of HIV+ subjects. We performed a cross-sectional analysis of 190 HIV+ subjects enrolled in the Examinations of HIV Associated Lung Emphysema (EXHALE) study. Subjects underwent baseline laboratory assessments, pulmonary function testing and chest computed tomography (CT) analyzed for emphysema severity and distribution. We determined the association between CD4/CD8 ratio and emphysema, and the association between CD4/CD8 ratio and pulmonary function markers of COPD. Mild or greater emphysema (>10% lung involvement) was present in 31% of subjects. Low CD4/CD8 ratio was associated with >10% emphysema in multivariable models, adjusting for risk factors including smoking, current and nadir CD4 count and HIV RNA level. Those with CD4/CD8 ratio <0.4 had 6.3 (1.1-39) times the odds of >10% emphysema compared to those with a ratio >1.0 in fully adjusted models. A low CD4/CD8 ratio was also associated with reduced diffusion capacity (DLCO). A low CD4/CD8 ratio was associated with emphysema and low DLCO in HIV+ subjects, independent of other risk factors and clinical markers of HIV. The CD4/CD8 ratio may be a useful, clinically available, marker for risk of emphysema in HIV+ subjects in the antiretroviral therapy (ART) era.

A Low Peripheral Blood CD4/CD8 Ratio Is Associated with Pulmonary Emphysema in HIV

PubMed Central

Attia, Engi F.; Akgün, Kathleen M.; Soo Hoo, Guy W.; Freiberg, Matthew S.; Butt, Adeel A.; Wongtrakool, Cherry; Goetz, Matthew Bidwell; Brown, Sheldon T.; Graber, Christopher J.; Huang, Laurence; Crothers, Kristina

2017-01-01

Objectives The prevalence of emphysema is higher among HIV-infected (HIV+) individuals compared to HIV-uninfected persons. While greater tobacco use contributes, HIV-related effects on immunity likely confer additional risk. Low peripheral blood CD4+ to CD8+ T-lymphocyte (CD4/CD8) ratio may reflect chronic inflammation in HIV and may be a marker of chronic lung disease in this population. Therefore, we sought to determine whether the CD4/CD8 ratio was associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), particularly the emphysema subtype, in a cohort of HIV+ subjects. Methods We performed a cross-sectional analysis of 190 HIV+ subjects enrolled in the Examinations of HIV Associated Lung Emphysema (EXHALE) study. Subjects underwent baseline laboratory assessments, pulmonary function testing and chest computed tomography (CT) analyzed for emphysema severity and distribution. We determined the association between CD4/CD8 ratio and emphysema, and the association between CD4/CD8 ratio and pulmonary function markers of COPD. Results Mild or greater emphysema (>10% lung involvement) was present in 31% of subjects. Low CD4/CD8 ratio was associated with >10% emphysema in multivariable models, adjusting for risk factors including smoking, current and nadir CD4 count and HIV RNA level. Those with CD4/CD8 ratio <0.4 had 6.3 (1.1–39) times the odds of >10% emphysema compared to those with a ratio >1.0 in fully adjusted models. A low CD4/CD8 ratio was also associated with reduced diffusion capacity (DLCO). Conclusions A low CD4/CD8 ratio was associated with emphysema and low DLCO in HIV+ subjects, independent of other risk factors and clinical markers of HIV. The CD4/CD8 ratio may be a useful, clinically available, marker for risk of emphysema in HIV+ subjects in the antiretroviral therapy (ART) era. PMID:28122034

Using sightability-adjusted brood-pair ratios to estimate waterfowl productivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pagano, Anthony M.; Amundson, Courtney L.; Pieron, Matthew R.; Arnold, Todd W.; Kimmel, Timothy C.

2014-01-01

Historically, biologists used brood-pair ratios (BPRs) as an index to waterfowl productivity to help guide management decisions and evaluate conservation practices. However, BPRs are biased by imperfect detection probabilities, especially for broods. We conducted roadside surveys for breeding waterfowl pairs on 7–8 study sites in the springs of 2006–2008 in northeastern North Dakota, USA. Later each year, we conducted replicate counts of broods on the same wetlands and used mark–recapture methods to estimate sightability-adjusted BPRs (SA-BPRs). Traditional roadside brood surveys detected only 30–45% of the available broods, depending on species. We explored the potential for using SA-BPRs to measure hen success (i.e., the probability a female hatches ≥1 egg across all nesting attempts) for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) and other upland-nesting dabbling ducks (Anas spp.). We found that SA-BPRs explained 40% of the variation in hen success over 5 species of dabbling ducks, and we were able to detect an effect of predator reduction on hen success in combined dabblers, but not in mallards alone. However, we found no relationship between SA-BPRs and mallard fledging rates (hen success × initial brood size × duckling survival). Our results suggest that SA-BPRs can provide a cost-effective alternative to traditional measures of productivity such as nesting success, but not to measures of duckling survival. Nevertheless, SA-BPRs may be useful in areas where traditional measures of waterfowl productivity are logistically or financially challenging.

Beyond classic risk adjustment: Socioeconomic status and hospital performance in urologic oncology surgery.

PubMed

Odisho, Anobel Y; Etzioni, Ruth; Gore, John L

2018-06-15

Safety-net hospitals (SNHs) care for more patients of low socioeconomic status (SES) than non-SNHs and are disproportionately punished under SES-naive Medicare readmission risk-adjustment models. This study was designed to develop a risk-adjustment framework that incorporates SES and to assess the impact on readmission rates. California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development data from 2007 to 2011 were used to identify patients undergoing radical cystectomy (RC) for bladder cancer (n = 3771) or partial nephrectomy (PN; n = 5556) or radical nephrectomy (RN; n = 13,136) for kidney cancer. Unadjusted hospital rankings and predicted rankings under models simulating the Medicare Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program were compared with predicted rankings under models incorporating SES and hospital factors. SES, derived from a multifactorial neighborhood score, was calculated from US Census data. The 30-day readmission rate was 26.1% for RC, 8.3% for RN, and 9.5% for PN. The addition of SES, geographic, and hospital factors changed hospital rankings significantly in comparison with the base model (P < .01) except for SES for RC (P = .07) and SES and rural factors for PN (P = .12). For RN and PN, the addition of SES predicted lower percentile ranks for SNHs and thus improved observed-to-expected rankings (P < .01). For RC, there were no changes in hospital rankings. SES is important for risk adjustments for complex surgical procedures such as RC. Patient SES affects overall hospital rankings across cohorts, and critically, it differentially and punitively affects rankings for SNHs for some procedures. Cancer 2018. © 2018 American Cancer Society. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

[Family characteristics, organic risk factors, psychopathological picture and premorbid adjustment of hospitalized adolescent patients].

PubMed

Małkiewicz-Borkowska, M; Namysłowska, I; Siewierska, A; Puzyńska, E; Sredniawa, H; Zechowski, C; Iwanek, A; Ruszkowska, E

1996-01-01

The relation of some family characteristics such as cohesion and adaptability with organic risk factors, developmental psychopathology, clinical picture and premorbid adjustment was assessed in the group of 100 hospitalized adolescent patients and families. We found correlation between: some of organic risk factors (pathology of neonatal period, pathology of early childhood), some of indicators of developmental psychopathology (eating disorders, conduct disorders), some of clinical signs (mannerism, grandiosity, hostility, suspciousness, disturbances of content of thinking), premorbid adjustment, and variables related to families, described before. We think that biological variables characterizing child (pathology of neonatal period, pathology of early childhood) have an influence on some family characteristics as independent variable. General system theory and circular thinking support these conclusions. In order to verify them, it is necessary to undertake further investigations, based on other methodology, using this results as preliminary findings.

Quality-of-life-adjusted hazard of death: a formulation of the quality-adjusted life-years model of use in benefit-risk assessment.

PubMed

Garcia-Hernandez, Alberto

2014-03-01

Although the quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) model is standard in health technology assessment, quantitative methods are less frequent but increasingly used for benefit-risk assessment (BRA) at earlier stages of drug development. A frequent challenge when implementing metrics for BRA is to weigh the importance of effects on a chronic condition against the risk of severe events during the trial. The lifetime component of the QALY model has a counterpart in the BRA context, namely, the risk of dying during the study. A new concept is presented, the hazard of death function that a subject is willing to accept instead of the baseline hazard to improve his or her chronic health status, which we have called the quality-of-life-adjusted hazard of death. It has been proven that if assumptions of the linear QALY model hold, the excess mortality rate tolerated by a subject for a chronic health improvement is inversely proportional to the mean residual life. This result leads to a new representation of the linear QALY model in terms of hazard rate functions and allows utilities obtained by using standard methods involving trade-offs of life duration to be translated into thresholds of tolerated mortality risk during a short period of time, thereby avoiding direct trade-offs using small probabilities of events during the study, which is known to lead to bias and variability. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Frontonasal fold thickness-to-nasal bone length ratio as a prenatal sonographic marker for trisomy 21 in a low-risk population.

PubMed

Gonzalez, Ruben; Aedo, Socrates; Dezerega, Victor; Sepulveda, Waldo

2013-05-01

To report normative data for the fetal nasal bone length (NBL), frontonasal fold (FNF) thickness, and the FNF/NBL ratio and to study their performance in the sonographic screening of trisomy 21 in a normal, unselected Latin American population. Women undergoing a routine sonographic examination between 16 and 32 weeks' gestation at a primary health care center in Santiago, Chile, were prospectively recruited for NBL and FNF thickness measurements. Pregnancies with maternal/fetal complications were subsequently excluded from analysis. Correlations between NBL, FNF thickness, and FNF/NBL ratio and gestational age were assessed with the Spearman correlation coefficient (ρ). To generate reference percentiles for NBL and FNF thickness, adjusted regression models were derived using a statistical method for calculating reference percentiles of fetal biometric parameters. A total of 1922 cases complied with entry criteria. Both the NBL and the FNF thickness increased with gestational age. However, the FNF/NBL ratio remained constant (ρ= 0.016; P = .95), with a mean value of 0.68 and 95th and 99th percentile values of 0.84 and 0.90, respectively. During the study period, all 4 fetuses with trisomy 21 diagnosed in this low-risk population had an FNF/NBL ratio above the 99th percentile, whereas only 3 had NBL below the fifth percentile, and 3 had FNF thickness above the 95th percentile. The FNF/NBL ratio is a promising marker for the sonographic screening of trisomy 21 in the low-risk population; however, further prospective studies including larger numbers of fetuses with trisomy 21 are warranted to determine the clinical value of this marker. As the NBL is dependent on the ethnicity of the population screened, determination of normative data for NBL and the FNF/NBL ratio in different ethnic populations is also recommended before including this method in the routine screening for aneuploidy.

Risk factors for gametocyte carriage in uncomplicated falciparum malaria in children before and after artemisinin-based combination treatments.

PubMed

Sowunmi, Akintunde; Okuboyejo, Titilope M; Gbotosho, Grace O; Happi, Christian T

2011-01-01

Artemisinin-based combination treatments (ACTs) are the recommended first-line antimalarials globally, but their influence on the risk factors associated with gametocyte carriage has had little evaluation in endemic areas. The risk factors associated with gametocytaemia at presentation and after ACTs were evaluated in 835 children assigned to artesunate, artesunate-amodiaquine, artesunate-mefloquine or artemether-lumefantrine. Gametocyte carriage at enrolment was 8.4%. During follow-up, 24 patients (2.8%) developed gametocytaemia, which in 83% (20 patients) had developed by day 7 following treatment. In a multiple regression model, 2 factors were independent risk factors for the presence of gametocytaemia at enrolment, namely age <3 years (adjusted odds ratio 2.03, 95% confidence interval 1.01-4.05; p = 0.04) and enrolment before 2009 (adjusted odds ratio 4.2, 95% confidence interval 2.09-8.44; p < 0.001). Haematocrit <25% and parasitaemia <50,000/μl blood were associated with an increased risk of gametocytaemia. Following treatment, 3 factors were independent risk factors for gametocytaemia, namely gametocytaemia at enrolment (adjusted odds ratio 46.39, 95% confidence interval 22.3-96.46; p < 0.0001) and treatment with artesunate (adjusted odds ratio 6.74, 95% confidence interval 1.79-25.27; p = 0.005) or artesunate-mefloquine (adjusted odds ratio 9.66, 95% confidence interval 2.87-32.46; p < 0.0.0001) relative to other ACTs. ACTs modified the risk factors associated with gametocyte carriage after use. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Sex Differences in Trajectories of Risk After Rehospitalization for Heart Failure, Acute Myocardial Infarction, or Pneumonia.

PubMed

Dreyer, Rachel P; Dharmarajan, Kumar; Hsieh, Angela F; Welsh, John; Qin, Li; Krumholz, Harlan M

2017-05-01

Women have an increased risk of rehospitalization in the immediate postdischarge period; however, few studies have determined how readmission risk dynamically changes on a day-to-day basis over the full year after hospitalization by sex and how these differences compare with the risk for mortality. We identified >3 000 000 hospitalizations of patients with a principal discharge diagnosis of heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, or pneumonia and estimated sex differences in the daily risk of rehospitalization/death 1 year after discharge from a population of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65 years and older. We calculated the (1) time required for adjusted rehospitalization/mortality risks to decline 50% from maximum values after discharge, (2) time required for the adjusted readmission risk to approach plateau periods of minimal day-to-day change, and (3) extent to which adjusted risks are greater among recently hospitalized patients versus Medicare patients. We identified 1 392 289, 530 771, and 1 125 231 hospitalizations for heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, and pneumonia, respectively. The adjusted daily risk of rehospitalization varied by admitting condition (hazard rate ratio for women versus men, 1.10 for acute myocardial infarction; hazard rate ratio, 1.04 for heart failure; and hazard rate ratio, 0.98 for pneumonia). However, for all conditions, the adjusted daily risk of death was higher among men versus women (hazard rate ratio women versus with men, <1). For both sexes, there was a similar timing of peak daily risk, half daily risk, and reaching plateau. Although the association of sex with daily risk of rehospitalization varies across conditions, women are at highest risk after discharge for acute myocardial infarction. Future studies should focus on understanding the determinants of sex differences in rehospitalization risk among conditions. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Outcomes for youth residential treatment programs using administrative data from the child welfare system: a risk-adjustment application.

PubMed

McMillen, J Curtis; Lee, Bethany R; Jonson-Reid, Melissa

2008-05-01

This study assessed whether administrative data from the public child welfare system could be used to develop risk-adjusted performance reports for residential mental health programs for adolescents. Regression methods were used with 3,759 residential treatment spells for 2,784 children and youth to determine which outcomes could be adequately risk adjusted for case mix. Expected outcomes were created for each residential program given its case mix; then, expected and achieved outcomes were compared. For most programs, achieved results did not differ significantly from expected results for individual outcomes. Overall, outcomes achieved were not impressive. Only one quarter of spells resulted in a youth being maintained in a single less restrictive setting in the year following discharge. Methodological implications of this study suggest further refinements are needed for child welfare administrative data in order to develop risk-adjusted report cards of program performance.

Evaluating diagnosis-based risk-adjustment methods in a population with spinal cord dysfunction.

PubMed

Warner, Grace; Hoenig, Helen; Montez, Maria; Wang, Fei; Rosen, Amy

2004-02-01

To examine performance of models in predicting health care utilization for individuals with spinal cord dysfunction. Regression models compared 2 diagnosis-based risk-adjustment methods, the adjusted clinical groups (ACGs) and diagnostic cost groups (DCGs). To improve prediction, we added to our model: (1) spinal cord dysfunction-specific diagnostic information, (2) limitations in self-care function, and (3) both 1 and 2. Models were replicated in 3 populations. Samples from 3 populations: (1) 40% of veterans using Veterans Health Administration services in fiscal year 1997 (FY97) (N=1,046,803), (2) veteran sample with spinal cord dysfunction identified by codes from the International Statistical Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modifications (N=7666), and (3) veteran sample identified in Veterans Affairs Spinal Cord Dysfunction Registry (N=5888). Not applicable. Inpatient, outpatient, and total days of care in FY97. The DCG models (R(2) range,.22-.38) performed better than ACG models (R(2) range,.04-.34) for all outcomes. Spinal cord dysfunction-specific diagnostic information improved prediction more in the ACG model than in the DCG model (R(2) range for ACG,.14-.34; R(2) range for DCG,.24-.38). Information on self-care function slightly improved performance (R(2) range increased from 0 to.04). The DCG risk-adjustment models predicted health care utilization better than ACG models. ACG model prediction was improved by adding information.

Probabilistic quantitative microbial risk assessment model of norovirus from wastewater irrigated vegetables in Ghana using genome copies and fecal indicator ratio conversion for estimating exposure dose.

PubMed

Owusu-Ansah, Emmanuel de-Graft Johnson; Sampson, Angelina; Amponsah, Samuel K; Abaidoo, Robert C; Dalsgaard, Anders; Hald, Tine

2017-12-01

The need to replace the commonly applied fecal indicator conversions ratio (an assumption of 1:10 -5 virus to fecal indicator organism) in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) with models based on quantitative data on the virus of interest has gained prominence due to the different physical and environmental factors that might influence the reliability of using indicator organisms in microbial risk assessment. The challenges facing analytical studies on virus enumeration (genome copies or particles) have contributed to the already existing lack of data in QMRA modelling. This study attempts to fit a QMRA model to genome copies of norovirus data. The model estimates the risk of norovirus infection from the intake of vegetables irrigated with wastewater from different sources. The results were compared to the results of a corresponding model using the fecal indicator conversion ratio to estimate the norovirus count. In all scenarios of using different water sources, the application of the fecal indicator conversion ratio underestimated the norovirus disease burden, measured by the Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), when compared to results using the genome copies norovirus data. In some cases the difference was >2 orders of magnitude. All scenarios using genome copies met the 10 -4 DALY per person per year for consumption of vegetables irrigated with wastewater, although these results are considered to be highly conservative risk estimates. The fecal indicator conversion ratio model of stream-water and drain-water sources of wastewater achieved the 10 -6 DALY per person per year threshold, which tends to indicate an underestimation of health risk when compared to using genome copies for estimating the dose. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Ratio of Eicosapentaenoic Acid (EPA) to Arachidonic Acid may be a Residual Risk Marker in Stable Coronary Artery Disease Patients Receiving Treatment with Statin Following EPA Therapy.

PubMed

Tani, Shigemasa; Nagao, Ken; Kawauchi, Kenji; Yagi, Tsukasa; Atsumi, Wataru; Matsuo, Rei; Hirayama, Atsushi

2017-10-01

We investigated the relationship between the eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA)/arachidonic acid (AA) ratio and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C) level, a major residual risk of coronary artery disease (CAD), in statin-treated CAD patients following EPA therapy. We conducted a 6-month, prospective, randomized clinical trial to investigate the effect of the additional administration of EPA on the EPA/AA ratio and the serum non-HDL-C level in stable CAD patients receiving statin treatment. We assigned CAD patients already receiving statin therapy to an EPA group (1800 mg/day; n = 50) or a control group (n = 50). A significant reduction in the serum non-HDL-C level was observed in the EPA group, compared with the control group (-9.7 vs. -1.2%, p = 0.01). A multiple-regression analysis with adjustments for coronary risk factors revealed that achieved EPA/AA ratio was more reliable as an independent and significant predictor of a reduction in the non-HDL-C level at a 6-month follow-up examination (β = -0.324, p = 0.033) than the absolute change in the EPA/AA ratio. Interestingly, significant negative correlations were found between the baseline levels and the absolute change values of both non-HDL-C and triglyceride-rich lipoproteins, both markers of residual risk of CAD, indicating that patients with a higher baseline residual risk achieved a greater reduction. The present results suggest that the achieved EPA/AA ratio, but not the absolute change in EPA/AA ratio, following EPA therapy might be a useful marker for the risk stratification of CAD among statin-treated patients with a high non-HDL-C level. UMIN ( http://www.umin.ac.jp/ ) Study ID: UMIN000010452.

Leaky polarizing beam splitter with adjustable leak ratio for operation in the wavelength range of 440-690 nm.

PubMed

Cheng, L; Bartlett, C L; Erwin, J K; Mansuripur, M

1997-07-01

We discuss the optomechanical design and fabrication of a novel wideband (440-690-nm), leaky polarizing beam splitter with an adjustable leak ratio. This beam splitter is an important component of a multiwavelength dynamic testbed that we have constructed for testing optical disks. The multilayer thin-film structure of the beam splitter is essentially a stacked pair of narrow-band dielectric reflectors that have been fine tuned for optimal performance. The characteristics of the fabricated device are in good agreement with our theoretical calculations.

HIV quality report cards: impact of case-mix adjustment and statistical methods.

PubMed

Ohl, Michael E; Richardson, Kelly K; Goto, Michihiko; Vaughan-Sarrazin, Mary; Schweizer, Marin L; Perencevich, Eli N

2014-10-15

There will be increasing pressure to publicly report and rank the performance of healthcare systems on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) quality measures. To inform discussion of public reporting, we evaluated the influence of case-mix adjustment when ranking individual care systems on the viral control quality measure. We used data from the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) HIV Clinical Case Registry and administrative databases to estimate case-mix adjusted viral control for 91 local systems caring for 12 368 patients. We compared results using 2 adjustment methods, the observed-to-expected estimator and the risk-standardized ratio. Overall, 10 913 patients (88.2%) achieved viral control (viral load ≤400 copies/mL). Prior to case-mix adjustment, system-level viral control ranged from 51% to 100%. Seventeen (19%) systems were labeled as low outliers (performance significantly below the overall mean) and 11 (12%) as high outliers. Adjustment for case mix (patient demographics, comorbidity, CD4 nadir, time on therapy, and income from VHA administrative databases) reduced the number of low outliers by approximately one-third, but results differed by method. The adjustment model had moderate discrimination (c statistic = 0.66), suggesting potential for unadjusted risk when using administrative data to measure case mix. Case-mix adjustment affects rankings of care systems on the viral control quality measure. Given the sensitivity of rankings to selection of case-mix adjustment methods-and potential for unadjusted risk when using variables limited to current administrative databases-the HIV care community should explore optimal methods for case-mix adjustment before moving forward with public reporting. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2014. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Breeds of risk-adjusted fundamentalist strategies in an order-driven market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LiCalzi, Marco; Pellizzari, Paolo

2006-01-01

This paper studies an order-driven stock market where agents have heterogeneous estimates of the fundamental value of the risky asset. The agents are budget-constrained and follow a value-based trading strategy which buys or sells depending on whether the price of the asset is below or above its risk-adjusted fundamental value. This environment generates returns that are remarkably leptokurtic and fat-tailed. By extending the study over a grid of different parameters for the fundamentalist trading strategy, we exhibit the existence of monotone relationships between the bid-ask spread demanded by the agents and several statistics of the returns. We conjecture that this effect, coupled with positive dependence of the risk premium on the volatility, generates positive feedbacks that might explain volatility bursts.

Comparison of Body Mass Index (BMI), Body Adiposity Index (BAI), Waist Circumference (WC), Waist-To-Hip Ratio (WHR) and Waist-To-Height Ratio (WHtR) as predictors of cardiovascular disease risk factors in an adult population in Singapore.

PubMed

Lam, Benjamin Chih Chiang; Koh, Gerald Choon Huat; Chen, Cynthia; Wong, Michael Tack Keong; Fallows, Stephen J

2015-01-01

Excess adiposity is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors such as hypertension, diabetes mellitus and dyslipidemia. Amongst the various measures of adiposity, the best one to help predict these risk factors remains contentious. A novel index of adiposity, the Body Adiposity Index (BAI) was proposed in 2011, and has not been extensively studied in all populations. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to compare the relationship between Body Mass Index (BMI), Waist Circumference (WC), Waist-to-Hip Ratio (WHR), Waist-to-Height Ratio (WHtR), Body Adiposity Index (BAI) and CVD risk factors in the local adult population. This is a cross sectional study involving 1,891 subjects (Chinese 59.1% Malay 22.2%, Indian 18.7%), aged 21-74 years, based on an employee health screening (2012) undertaken at a hospital in Singapore. Anthropometric indices and CVD risk factor variables were measured, and Spearman correlation, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and multiple logistic regressions were used. BAI consistently had the lower correlation, area under ROC and odd ratio values when compared with BMI, WC and WHtR, although differences were often small with overlapping 95% confidence intervals. After adjusting for BMI, BAI did not further increase the odds of CVD risk factors, unlike WC and WHtR (for all except hypertension and low high density lipoprotein cholesterol). When subjects with the various CVD risk factors were grouped according to established cut-offs, a BMI of ≥23.0 kg/m2 and/or WHtR ≥0.5 identified the highest proportion for all the CVD risk factors in both genders, even higher than a combination of BMI and WC. BAI may function as a measure of overall adiposity but it is unlikely to be better than BMI. A combination of BMI and WHtR could have the best clinical utility in identifying patients with CVD risk factors in an adult population in Singapore.

Identification of cardiometabolic risk: visceral adiposity index versus triglyceride/HDL cholesterol ratio.

PubMed

Salazar, Martin R; Carbajal, Horacio A; Espeche, Walter G; Aizpurúa, Marcelo; Maciel, Pablo M; Reaven, Gerald M

2014-02-01

The plasma concentration ratio of triglyceride (TG)/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) can identify cardiometabolic risk and cardiovascular disease. The visceral adiposity index is a sex-specific index, in which measurements of body mass index and waist circumference are combined with TG and HDL-C concentrations. The current analysis was initiated to see if the visceral adiposity index would improve the ability of the TG/HDL-C to identify increased cardiometabolic risk and outcome. Cardiometabolic data were obtained in 2003 from 926 apparently healthy individuals, 796 of whom were evaluated in 2012 for evidence of incident cardiovascular disease. The relationship between TG/HDL-C and values for visceral adiposity index was evaluated by Pearson's correlation coefficient. The relative risks for first cardiovascular event between individuals above and below the TG/HDL-C sex-specific cut points, and in the top quartile of visceral adiposity index versus the remaining 3 quartiles, were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. TG/HDL-C concentration and visceral adiposity index were highly correlated (r = 0.99) in both men and women. Although more men (133 vs121) and women (73 vs 59) were identified as being at "high risk" by an elevated TG/HDL-C ratio, the individual cardiometabolic risk factors were essentially identical with either index used. However, the hazard ratio of developing cardiovascular disease was significantly increased in individuals with an elevated TG/HDL-C, whereas it was not the case when the visceral adiposity index was used to define "high risk." The visceral adiposity index does not identify individuals with an adverse cardiometabolic profile any better than the TG/HDL-C. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Burden of typhoid fever in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic, literature-based update with risk-factor adjustment.

PubMed

Mogasale, Vittal; Maskery, Brian; Ochiai, R Leon; Lee, Jung Seok; Mogasale, Vijayalaxmi V; Ramani, Enusa; Kim, Young Eun; Park, Jin Kyung; Wierzba, Thomas F

2014-10-01

No access to safe water is an important risk factor for typhoid fever, yet risk-level heterogeneity is unaccounted for in previous global burden estimates. Since WHO has recommended risk-based use of typhoid polysaccharide vaccine, we revisited the burden of typhoid fever in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) after adjusting for water-related risk. We estimated the typhoid disease burden from studies done in LMICs based on blood-culture-confirmed incidence rates applied to the 2010 population, after correcting for operational issues related to surveillance, limitations of diagnostic tests, and water-related risk. We derived incidence estimates, correction factors, and mortality estimates from systematic literature reviews. We did scenario analyses for risk factors, diagnostic sensitivity, and case fatality rates, accounting for the uncertainty in these estimates and we compared them with previous disease burden estimates. The estimated number of typhoid fever cases in LMICs in 2010 after adjusting for water-related risk was 11·9 million (95% CI 9·9-14·7) cases with 129 000 (75 000-208 000) deaths. By comparison, the estimated risk-unadjusted burden was 20·6 million (17·5-24·2) cases and 223 000 (131 000-344 000) deaths. Scenario analyses indicated that the risk-factor adjustment and updated diagnostic test correction factor derived from systematic literature reviews were the drivers of differences between the current estimate and past estimates. The risk-adjusted typhoid fever burden estimate was more conservative than previous estimates. However, by distinguishing the risk differences, it will allow assessment of the effect at the population level and will facilitate cost-effectiveness calculations for risk-based vaccination strategies for future typhoid conjugate vaccine. Copyright © 2014 Mogasale et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-SA. Published by .. All rights reserved.

Maternal Genitourinary Infections and the Risk of Gastroschisis

PubMed Central

Yazdy, Mahsa M.; Mitchell, Allen A.; Werler, Martha M.

2014-01-01

Genitourinary infections (GUIs) have been associated with increased risk of gastroschisis in 2 studies. Using data collected in the Slone Epidemiology Center Birth Defects Study, we examined the association between GUI and gastroschisis. From 1998 to 2010, mothers of 249 gastroschisis cases and 7,104 controls were interviewed within 6 months of delivery about pregnancy events, including vaginal infections, genital herpes, urinary tract infections (UTIs), and other sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). Women were considered exposed if they reported at least 1 instance of a GUI in the first trimester. Logistic regression models were used to calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Women who reported having any GUI had an adjusted odds ratio of 1.8 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3, 2.4). The highest risk was seen among women who reported a UTI only (adjusted odds ratio = 2.3, 95% CI: 1.5, 3.5), while the odds ratio for an STD only was slightly elevated (adjusted odds ratio = 1.2, 95% CI: 1.0, 1.5). Among women under 25 years of age, the odds ratio for UTI only was 2.6 (95% CI: 1.7, 4.0), and among older women it was 1.8 (95% CI: 0.6, 5.9). When we considered the joint association of UTIs and young maternal age, a synergistic effect was observed. The results of this study add further evidence that UTIs may increase the risk of gastroschisis. PMID:25073472

Genetic Association of Waist-to-Hip Ratio With Cardiometabolic Traits, Type 2 Diabetes, and Coronary Heart Disease.

PubMed

Emdin, Connor A; Khera, Amit V; Natarajan, Pradeep; Klarin, Derek; Zekavat, Seyedeh M; Hsiao, Allan J; Kathiresan, Sekar

2017-02-14

In observational studies, abdominal adiposity has been associated with type 2 diabetes and coronary heart disease (CHD). Whether these associations represent causal relationships remains uncertain. To test the association of a polygenic risk score for waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) adjusted for body mass index (BMI), a measure of abdominal adiposity, with type 2 diabetes and CHD through the potential intermediates of blood lipids, blood pressure, and glycemic phenotypes. A polygenic risk score for WHR adjusted for BMI, a measure of genetic predisposition to abdominal adiposity, was constructed with 48 single-nucleotide polymorphisms. The association of this score with cardiometabolic traits, type 2 diabetes, and CHD was tested in a mendelian randomization analysis that combined case-control and cross-sectional data sets. Estimates for cardiometabolic traits were based on a combined data set consisting of summary results from 4 genome-wide association studies conducted from 2007 to 2015, including up to 322 154 participants, as well as individual-level, cross-sectional data from the UK Biobank collected from 2007-2011, including 111 986 individuals. Estimates for type 2 diabetes and CHD were derived from summary statistics of 2 separate genome-wide association studies conducted from 2007 to 2015 and including 149 821 individuals and 184 305 individuals, respectively, combined with individual-level data from the UK Biobank. Genetic predisposition to increased WHR adjusted for BMI. Type 2 diabetes and CHD. Among 111 986 individuals in the UK Biobank, the mean age was 57 (SD, 8) years, 58 845 participants (52.5%) were women, and mean WHR was 0.875. Analysis of summary-level genome-wide association study results and individual-level UK Biobank data demonstrated that a 1-SD increase in WHR adjusted for BMI mediated by the polygenic risk score was associated with 27-mg/dL higher triglyceride levels, 4.1-mg/dL higher 2-hour glucose levels, and 2.1-mm Hg higher

Comparative risk of cerebrovascular adverse events in community-dwelling older adults using risperidone, olanzapine and quetiapine: a multiple propensity score-adjusted retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Chatterjee, Satabdi; Chen, Hua; Johnson, Michael L; Aparasu, Rajender R

2012-10-01

Atypical antipsychotic agents have been associated with cerebrovascular adverse events, particularly in elderly dementia patients. However, limited evidence exists regarding comparative cerebrovascular profiles of individual atypical agents, particularly in community settings. The objective of this study was to evaluate the risk of cerebrovascular events associated with use of risperidone, olanzapine and quetiapine in community-dwelling older adults in the US. A propensity score-adjusted retrospective cohort design involving the IMS LifeLink™ Health Plan Claims Database was used for the study. The study population included all older adults (aged ≥50 years) who initiated risperidone, olanzapine or quetiapine anytime during 1 July 2000 to 30 June 2008. Patients were followed until hospitalization or an emergency room visit for a cerebrovascular event, or the end of the study period, whichever occurred earlier. The Cox proportional hazard regression model with time-varying covariates was used to evaluate the risk of cerebrovascular events during the follow-up period, using olanzapine as the reference. The covariates adjusted for in the final model included multiple propensity scores and exposure to other medications that could be associated with the risk of cerebrovascular events. A total of 2,458 cerebrovascular events were identified in the study cohort: 1,081 (21.38%) for risperidone users, 816 (18.75%) for olanzapine users and 561 (21.05%) for quetiapine users. After adjusting for propensity scores and other covariates, the Cox proportional hazard model revealed that use of quetiapine [hazard ratio (HR) 0.88; 95% CI 0.78, 0.99] but not risperidone (HR 1.05; 95% CI 0.95, 1.16) was associated with a decrease in the risk of cerebrovascular adverse events compared with olanzapine. The study suggested that quetiapine use may be associated with a moderately lower risk of cerebrovascular events than olanzapine in older adults. Prescribers should closely monitor the

Risk Adjustment May Lessen Penalties On Hospitals Treating Complex Cardiac Patients Under Medicare's Bundled Payments.

PubMed

Markovitz, Adam A; Ellimoottil, Chandy; Sukul, Devraj; Mullangi, Samyukta; Chen, Lena M; Nallamothu, Brahmajee K; Ryan, Andrew M

2017-12-01

To reduce variation in spending, Medicare has considered implementing a cardiac bundled payment program for acute myocardial infarction and coronary artery bypass graft. Because the proposed program does not account for patient risk factors when calculating hospital penalties or rewards ("reconciliation payments"), it might unfairly penalize certain hospitals. We estimated the impact of adjusting for patients' medical complexity and social risk on reconciliation payments for Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized for the two conditions in the period 2011-13. Average spending per episode was $29,394. Accounting for medical complexity substantially narrowed the gap in reconciliation payments between hospitals with high medical severity (from a penalty of $1,809 to one of $820, or a net reduction of $989), safety-net hospitals (from a penalty of $217 to one of $87, a reduction of $130), and minority-serving hospitals (from a penalty of $70 to a reward of $56, an improvement of $126) and their counterparts. Accounting for social risk alone narrowed these gaps but had minimal incremental effects after medical complexity was accounted for. Risk adjustment may preserve incentives to care for patients with complex conditions under Medicare bundled payment programs.

Psychosocial Adjustment and Sibling Relationships in Siblings of Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder: Risk and Protective Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walton, Katherine M.; Ingersoll, Brooke R.

2015-01-01

This study compared sibling adjustment and relationships in siblings of children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD-Sibs; n = 69) and siblings of children with typical development (TD-Sibs; n = 93). ASD-Sibs and TD-Sibs demonstrated similar emotional/behavioral adjustment. Older male ASD-Sibs were at increased risk for difficulties. Sibling…

Odds per adjusted standard deviation: comparing strengths of associations for risk factors measured on different scales and across diseases and populations.

PubMed

Hopper, John L

2015-11-15

How can the "strengths" of risk factors, in the sense of how well they discriminate cases from controls, be compared when they are measured on different scales such as continuous, binary, and integer? Given that risk estimates take into account other fitted and design-related factors-and that is how risk gradients are interpreted-so should the presentation of risk gradients. Therefore, for each risk factor X0, I propose using appropriate regression techniques to derive from appropriate population data the best fitting relationship between the mean of X0 and all the other covariates fitted in the model or adjusted for by design (X1, X2, … , Xn). The odds per adjusted standard deviation (OPERA) presents the risk association for X0 in terms of the change in risk per s = standard deviation of X0 adjusted for X1, X2, … , Xn, rather than the unadjusted standard deviation of X0 itself. If the increased risk is relative risk (RR)-fold over A adjusted standard deviations, then OPERA = exp[ln(RR)/A] = RR(s). This unifying approach is illustrated by considering breast cancer and published risk estimates. OPERA estimates are by definition independent and can be used to compare the predictive strengths of risk factors across diseases and populations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Association between Triglyceride/High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Ratio and All-Cause Mortality in Acute Coronary Syndrome after Coronary Revascularization

PubMed Central

Wan, Ke; Zhao, Jianxun; Huang, Hao; Zhang, Qing; Chen, Xi; Zeng, Zhi; Zhang, Li; Chen, Yucheng

2015-01-01

Aims High triglycerides (TG) and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) are cardiovascular risk factors. A positive correlation between elevated TG/HDL-C ratio and all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events exists in women. However, utility of TG to HDL-C ratio for prediction is unknown among acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Methods Fasting lipid profiles, detailed demographic data, and clinical data were obtained at baseline from 416 patients with ACS after coronary revascularization. Subjects were stratified into three levels of TG/HDL-C. We constructed multivariate Cox-proportional hazard models for all-cause mortality over a median follow-up of 3 years using log TG to HDL-C ratio as a predictor variable and analyzing traditional cardiovascular risk factors. We constructed a logistic regression model for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) to prove that the TG/HDL-C ratio is a risk factor. Results The subject’s mean age was 64 ± 11 years; 54.5% were hypertensive, 21.8% diabetic, and 61.0% current or prior smokers. TG/HDL-C ratio ranged from 0.27 to 14.33. During the follow-up period, there were 43 deaths. In multivariate Cox models after adjusting for age, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and severity of angiographic coronary disease, patients in the highest tertile of ACS had a 5.32-fold increased risk of mortality compared with the lowest tertile. After adjusting for conventional coronary heart disease risk factors by the logistic regression model, the TG/HDL-C ratio was associated with MACEs. Conclusion The TG to HDL-C ratio is a powerful independent predictor of all-cause mortality and is a risk factor of cardiovascular events. PMID:25880982

Psychosocial Adjustment and Perceived Risk Among Adolescent Girls From Families With BRCA1/2 or Breast Cancer History

PubMed Central

Patrick-Miller, Linda; Schwartz, Lisa A.; Egleston, Brian L.; Henry-Moss, Dare; Domchek, Susan M.; Daly, Mary B.; Tuchman, Lisa; Moore, Cynthia; Rauch, Paula K.; Shorter, Rebecca; Karpink, Kelsey; Sands, Colleen Burke

2016-01-01

Purpose To evaluate the impact of breast cancer family history and maternal BRCA1/2 mutation on the psychosocial adjustment and perceived risk in girls age 11 to 19 years old. Materials and Methods Girls age 11 to 19 years old with one or more relatives with breast cancer or a familial BRCA1/2 mutation (breast cancer family history [BCFH] positive, n = 208; n = 69 with BRCA1/2-positive mother), peers (BCFH negative, n = 112), and their mothers completed assessments of psychosocial adjustment, breast cancer–specific distress, and perceived risk of breast cancer. Results General psychosocial adjustment did not differ significantly between BCFH-positive and BCFH-negative girls, either by self-report or mother report, except for higher self-esteem among BCFH-positive girls (P = .01). BCFH-positive girls had higher breast cancer–specific distress than BCFH-negative girls (P < .001), but girls from BRCA1/2-positive families did not differ from other BCFH-positive peers. BCFH-positive girls were more likely to report themselves at increased self-risk for breast cancer in adulthood than BCFH-negative peers (74% v 33%, respectively; P ≤ .001). Girls from BRCA1/2-positive families were more likely than other BCFH-positive and BCFH-negative peers to report themselves at increased risk (P < .001). In all groups, perceived risk of breast cancer was associated with older age. Higher breast cancer–specific distress among adolescent girls was associated with higher self-perceived risk of breast cancer and higher maternal breast cancer–specific distress. Conclusion Adolescent girls from BRCA1/2-positive and breast cancer families have higher self-esteem and do not have poorer psychosocial adjustment than peers. However, they do experience greater breast cancer–specific distress and perceived risk of breast cancer, particularly among older girls. Understanding the impact is important to optimize responses to growing up in families at familial and genetic risk for breast

Monitoring risk-adjusted medical outcomes allowing for changes over time.

PubMed

Steiner, Stefan H; Mackay, R Jock

2014-10-01

We consider the problem of monitoring and comparing medical outcomes, such as surgical performance, over time. Performance is subject to change due to a variety of reasons including patient heterogeneity, learning, deteriorating skills due to aging, etc. For instance, we expect inexperienced surgeons to improve their skills with practice. We propose a graphical method to monitor surgical performance that incorporates risk adjustment to account for patient heterogeneity. The procedure gives more weight to recent outcomes and down-weights the influence of outcomes further in the past. The chart is clinically interpretable as it plots an estimate of the failure rate for a "standard" patient. The chart also includes a measure of uncertainty in this estimate. We can implement the method using historical data or start from scratch. As the monitoring proceeds, we can base the estimated failure rate on a known risk model or use the observed outcomes to update the risk model as time passes. We illustrate the proposed method with an example from cardiac surgery. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Refining Risk Adjustment for the Proposed CMS Surgical Hip and Femur Fracture Treatment Bundled Payment Program.

PubMed

Cairns, Mark A; Ostrum, Robert F; Clement, R Carter

2018-02-21

The U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has been considering the implementation of a mandatory bundled payment program, the Surgical Hip and Femur Fracture Treatment (SHFFT) model. However, bundled payments without appropriate risk adjustment may be inequitable to providers and may restrict access to care for certain patients. The SHFFT proposal includes adjustment using the Diagnosis-Related Group (DRG) and geographic location. The goal of the current study was to identify and quantify patient factors that could improve risk adjustment for SHFFT bundled payments. We retrospectively reviewed a 5% random sample of Medicare data from 2008 to 2012. A total of 27,898 patients were identified who met SHFFT inclusion criteria (DRG 480, 481, and 482). Reimbursement was determined for each patient over the bundle period (the surgical hospitalization and 90 days of post-discharge care). Multivariable regression was performed to test demographic factors, comorbidities, geographic location, and specific surgical procedures for associations with reimbursement. The average reimbursement was $23,632 ± $17,587. On average, reimbursements for male patients were $1,213 higher than for female patients (p < 0.01). Younger age was also associated with higher payments; e.g., reimbursement for those ≥85 years of age averaged $2,282 ± $389 less than for those aged 65 to 69 (p < 0.01). Most comorbidities were associated with higher reimbursement, but dementia was associated with lower payments, by an average of $2,354 ± $243 (p < 0.01). Twenty-two procedure codes are included in the bundle, and patients with the 3 most common codes accounted for 98% of the cases, with average reimbursement ranging from $22,527 to $24,033. Less common procedures varied by >$20,000 in average reimbursement (p < 0.01). DRGs also showed significant differences in reimbursement (p < 0.01); e.g., DRG 480 was reimbursed by an average of $10,421 ± $543 more than DRG 482. Payments varied

Blood urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio identifies a high-risk but potentially reversible form of renal dysfunction in patients with decompensated heart failure.

PubMed

Brisco, Meredith A; Coca, Steven G; Chen, Jennifer; Owens, Anjali Tiku; McCauley, Brian D; Kimmel, Stephen E; Testani, Jeffrey M

2013-03-01

Identifying reversible renal dysfunction (RD) in the setting of heart failure is challenging. The goal of this study was to evaluate whether elevated admission blood urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio (BUN/Cr) could identify decompensated heart failure patients likely to experience improvement in renal function (IRF) with treatment. Consecutive hospitalizations with a discharge diagnosis of heart failure were reviewed. IRF was defined as ≥20% increase and worsening renal function as ≥20% decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate. IRF occurred in 31% of the 896 patients meeting eligibility criteria. Higher admission BUN/Cr was associated with in-hospital IRF (odds ratio, 1.5 per 10 increase; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-1.8; P<0.001), an association persisting after adjustment for baseline characteristics (odds ratio, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.8; P=0.004). However, higher admission BUN/Cr was also associated with post-discharge worsening renal function (odds ratio, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.8; P=0.011). Notably, in patients with an elevated admission BUN/Cr, the risk of death associated with RD (estimated glomerular filtration rate <45) was substantial (hazard ratio, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.6-3.1; P<0.001). However, in patients with a normal admission BUN/Cr, RD was not associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.67-2.0; P=0.59; p interaction=0.03). An elevated admission BUN/Cr identifies decompensated patients with heart failure likely to experience IRF with treatment, providing proof of concept that reversible RD may be a discernible entity. However, this improvement seems to be largely transient, and RD, in the setting of an elevated BUN/Cr, remains strongly associated with death. Further research is warranted to develop strategies for the optimal detection and treatment of these high-risk patients.

Risk-adjusted hospital outcomes for children's surgery.

PubMed

Saito, Jacqueline M; Chen, Li Ern; Hall, Bruce L; Kraemer, Kari; Barnhart, Douglas C; Byrd, Claudia; Cohen, Mark E; Fei, Chunyuan; Heiss, Kurt F; Huffman, Kristopher; Ko, Clifford Y; Latus, Melissa; Meara, John G; Oldham, Keith T; Raval, Mehul V; Richards, Karen E; Shah, Rahul K; Sutton, Laura C; Vinocur, Charles D; Moss, R Lawrence

2013-09-01

BACKGROUND The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Pediatric was initiated in 2008 to drive quality improvement in children's surgery. Low mortality and morbidity in previous analyses limited differentiation of hospital performance. Participating institutions included children's units within general hospitals and free-standing children's hospitals. Cases selected by Current Procedural Terminology codes encompassed procedures within pediatric general, otolaryngologic, orthopedic, urologic, plastic, neurologic, thoracic, and gynecologic surgery. Trained personnel abstracted demographic, surgical profile, preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables. Incorporating procedure-specific risk, hierarchical models for 30-day mortality and morbidities were developed with significant predictors identified by stepwise logistic regression. Reliability was estimated to assess the balance of information versus error within models. In 2011, 46 281 patients from 43 hospitals were accrued; 1467 codes were aggregated into 226 groupings. Overall mortality was 0.3%, composite morbidity 5.8%, and surgical site infection (SSI) 1.8%. Hierarchical models revealed outlier hospitals with above or below expected performance for composite morbidity in the entire cohort, pediatric abdominal subgroup, and spine subgroup; SSI in the entire cohort and pediatric abdominal subgroup; and urinary tract infection in the entire cohort. Based on reliability estimates, mortality discriminates performance poorly due to very low event rate; however, reliable model construction for composite morbidity and SSI that differentiate institutions is feasible. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Pediatric expansion has yielded risk-adjusted models to differentiate hospital performance in composite and specific morbidities. However, mortality has low utility as a children's surgery performance indicator. Programmatic improvements have resulted in

Risk factors of shock in severe falciparum malaria.

PubMed

Arnold, Brendan J; Tangpukdee, Noppadon; Krudsood, Srivicha; Wilairatana, Polrat

2013-07-04

The objective of this study was to determine the risk factors for the development of shock in adult patients admitted with severe falciparum malaria. As an unmatched case-control study, the records of patients who were admitted to the Bangkok Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Thailand, between the years 2000-2010, were reviewed. One hundred patients with severe falciparum malaria and shock, and another 100 patients with severe malaria but without shock were studied. Demographics, presenting symptoms, physical observations, and laboratory data of these patients were analyzed. Five risk factors for the development of shock were identified: female gender (OR 6.16; 95% CI 3.17-11.97), red cell distribution width (RDW) >15% (adjusted OR 2.90; 95% CI 1.11-7.57), anorexia (adjusted OR 2.76; 95% CI 1.03-7.39), hypoalbuminemia (adjusted OR 2.19; 95% CI 1.10-4.34), and BUN-creatinine ratio >20 (adjusted OR 2.38; 95% CI 1.22-4.64). Diarrhea was found to be a protective factor (adjusted OR 0.33; 95% CI 0.14-0.78). Metabolic acidosis was only weakly correlated to mean arterial blood pressure on admission (r(s) = 0.23). Female gender was the strongest risk factor for the development of shock. We concluded that female gender, RDW >15%, anorexia, hypoalbuminemia, and BUN-creatinine ratio >20 were risk factors of shock development in severe falciparum malaria.

The relationship between the C-statistic of a risk-adjustment model and the accuracy of hospital report cards: a Monte Carlo Study.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C; Reeves, Mathew J

2013-03-01

Hospital report cards, in which outcomes following the provision of medical or surgical care are compared across health care providers, are being published with increasing frequency. Essential to the production of these reports is risk-adjustment, which allows investigators to account for differences in the distribution of patient illness severity across different hospitals. Logistic regression models are frequently used for risk adjustment in hospital report cards. Many applied researchers use the c-statistic (equivalent to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) of the logistic regression model as a measure of the credibility and accuracy of hospital report cards. To determine the relationship between the c-statistic of a risk-adjustment model and the accuracy of hospital report cards. Monte Carlo simulations were used to examine this issue. We examined the influence of 3 factors on the accuracy of hospital report cards: the c-statistic of the logistic regression model used for risk adjustment, the number of hospitals, and the number of patients treated at each hospital. The parameters used to generate the simulated datasets came from analyses of patients hospitalized with a diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction in Ontario, Canada. The c-statistic of the risk-adjustment model had, at most, a very modest impact on the accuracy of hospital report cards, whereas the number of patients treated at each hospital had a much greater impact. The c-statistic of a risk-adjustment model should not be used to assess the accuracy of a hospital report card.

The relationship between the c-statistic of a risk-adjustment model and the accuracy of hospital report cards: A Monte Carlo study

PubMed Central

Austin, Peter C.; Reeves, Mathew J.

2015-01-01

Background Hospital report cards, in which outcomes following the provision of medical or surgical care are compared across health care providers, are being published with increasing frequency. Essential to the production of these reports is risk-adjustment, which allows investigators to account for differences in the distribution of patient illness severity across different hospitals. Logistic regression models are frequently used for risk-adjustment in hospital report cards. Many applied researchers use the c-statistic (equivalent to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) of the logistic regression model as a measure of the credibility and accuracy of hospital report cards. Objectives To determine the relationship between the c-statistic of a risk-adjustment model and the accuracy of hospital report cards. Research Design Monte Carlo simulations were used to examine this issue. We examined the influence of three factors on the accuracy of hospital report cards: the c-statistic of the logistic regression model used for risk-adjustment, the number of hospitals, and the number of patients treated at each hospital. The parameters used to generate the simulated datasets came from analyses of patients hospitalized with a diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction in Ontario, Canada. Results The c-statistic of the risk-adjustment model had, at most, a very modest impact on the accuracy of hospital report cards, whereas the number of patients treated at each hospital had a much greater impact. Conclusions The c-statistic of a risk-adjustment model should not be used to assess the accuracy of a hospital report card. PMID:23295579

Mate guarding in the Seychelles warbler is energetically costly and adjusted to paternity risk.

PubMed

Komdeur, J

2001-10-22

Males may increase their fitness through extra-pair copulations (copulations outside the pair bond) that result in extra-pair fertilizations, but also risk lost paternity when they leave their own mate unguarded. The fitness costs of cuckoldry for Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus sechellensis) are considerable because warblers have a single-egg clutch and, given the short breeding season, no time for a successful replacement clutch. Neighbouring males are the primary threat to a male's genetic paternity. Males minimize their loss of paternity by guarding their mates to prevent them from having extra-pair copulations during their fertile period. Here, I provide experimental evidence that mate-guarding behaviour is energetically costly and that the expression of this trade-off is adjusted to paternity risk (local male density). Free-living males that were induced to reduce mate guarding spent significantly more time foraging and gained significantly better body condition than control males. The larger the reduction in mate guarding, the more pronounced was the increase in foraging and body condition (accounting for food availability). An experimental increase in paternity risk resulted in an increase in mate-guarding intensity and a decrease in foraging and body condition, and vice versa. This is examined using both cross-sectional and longitudinal data. This study on the Seychelles warbler offers experimental evidence that mate guarding is energetically costly and adjusted to paternity risk.

Evaluation of waist-to-height ratio to predict 5 year cardiometabolic risk in sub-Saharan African adults.

PubMed

Ware, L J; Rennie, K L; Kruger, H S; Kruger, I M; Greeff, M; Fourie, C M T; Huisman, H W; Scheepers, J D W; Uys, A S; Kruger, R; Van Rooyen, J M; Schutte, R; Schutte, A E

2014-08-01

Simple, low-cost central obesity measures may help identify individuals with increased cardiometabolic disease risk, although it is unclear which measures perform best in African adults. We aimed to: 1) cross-sectionally compare the accuracy of existing waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and waist circumference (WC) thresholds to identify individuals with hypertension, pre-diabetes, or dyslipidaemia; 2) identify optimal WC and WHtR thresholds to detect CVD risk in this African population; and 3) assess which measure best predicts 5-year CVD risk. Black South Africans (577 men, 942 women, aged >30years) were recruited by random household selection from four North West Province communities. Demographic and anthropometric measures were taken. Recommended diagnostic thresholds (WC > 80 cm for women, >94 cm for men; WHtR > 0.5) were evaluated to predict blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, lipids, and glycated haemoglobin measured at baseline and 5 year follow up. Women were significantly more overweight than men at baseline (mean body mass index (BMI) women 27.3 ± 7.4 kg/m(2), men 20.9 ± 4.3 kg/m(2)); median WC women 81.9 cm (interquartile range 61-103), men 74.7 cm (63-87 cm), all P < 0.001). In women, both WC and WHtR significantly predicted all cardiometabolic risk factors after 5 years. In men, even after adjusting WC threshold based on ROC analysis, WHtR better predicted overall 5-year risk. Neither measure predicted hypertension in men. The WHtR threshold of >0.5 appears to be more consistently supported and may provide a better predictor of future cardiometabolic risk in sub-Saharan Africa. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development and Validation of Perioperative Risk-Adjustment Models for Hip Fracture Repair, Total Hip Arthroplasty, and Total Knee Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Schilling, Peter L; Bozic, Kevin J

2016-01-06

Comparing outcomes across providers requires risk-adjustment models that account for differences in case mix. The burden of data collection from the clinical record can make risk-adjusted outcomes difficult to measure. The purpose of this study was to develop risk-adjustment models for hip fracture repair (HFR), total hip arthroplasty (THA), and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) that weigh adequacy of risk adjustment against data-collection burden. We used data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program to create derivation cohorts for HFR (n = 7000), THA (n = 17,336), and TKA (n = 28,661). We developed logistic regression models for each procedure using age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification, comorbidities, laboratory values, and vital signs-based comorbidities as covariates, and validated the models with use of data from 2012. The derivation models' C-statistics for mortality were 80%, 81%, 75%, and 92% and for adverse events were 68%, 68%, 60%, and 70% for HFR, THA, TKA, and combined procedure cohorts. Age, sex, and ASA classification accounted for a large share of the explained variation in mortality (50%, 58%, 70%, and 67%) and adverse events (43%, 45%, 46%, and 68%). For THA and TKA, these three variables were nearly as predictive as models utilizing all covariates. HFR model discrimination improved with the addition of comorbidities and laboratory values; among the important covariates were functional status, low albumin, high creatinine, disseminated cancer, dyspnea, and body mass index. Model performance was similar in validation cohorts. Risk-adjustment models using data from health records demonstrated good discrimination and calibration for HFR, THA, and TKA. It is possible to provide adequate risk adjustment using only the most predictive variables commonly available within the clinical record. This finding helps to inform the trade-off between model performance and data

Performance evaluation of inpatient service in Beijing: a horizontal comparison with risk adjustment based on Diagnosis Related Groups

PubMed Central

Jian, Weiyan; Huang, Yinmin; Hu, Mu; Zhang, Xiumei

2009-01-01

Background The medical performance evaluation, which provides a basis for rational decision-making, is an important part of medical service research. Current progress with health services reform in China is far from satisfactory, without sufficient regulation. To achieve better progress, an effective tool for evaluating medical performance needs to be established. In view of this, this study attempted to develop such a tool appropriate for the Chinese context. Methods Data was collected from the front pages of medical records (FPMR) of all large general public hospitals (21 hospitals) in the third and fourth quarter of 2007. Locally developed Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs) were introduced as a tool for risk adjustment and performance evaluation indicators were established: Charge Efficiency Index (CEI), Time Efficiency Index (TEI) and inpatient mortality of low-risk group cases (IMLRG), to reflect respectively work efficiency and medical service quality. Using these indicators, the inpatient services' performance was horizontally compared among hospitals. Case-mix Index (CMI) was used to adjust efficiency indices and then produce adjusted CEI (aCEI) and adjusted TEI (aTEI). Poisson distribution analysis was used to test the statistical significance of the IMLRG differences between different hospitals. Results Using the aCEI, aTEI and IMLRG scores for the 21 hospitals, Hospital A and C had relatively good overall performance because their medical charges were lower, LOS shorter and IMLRG smaller. The performance of Hospital P and Q was the worst due to their relatively high charge level, long LOS and high IMLRG. Various performance problems also existed in the other hospitals. Conclusion It is possible to develop an accurate and easy to run performance evaluation system using Case-Mix as the tool for risk adjustment, choosing indicators close to consumers and managers, and utilizing routine report forms as the basic information source. To keep such a system running

Performance evaluation of inpatient service in Beijing: a horizontal comparison with risk adjustment based on Diagnosis Related Groups.

PubMed

Jian, Weiyan; Huang, Yinmin; Hu, Mu; Zhang, Xiumei

2009-04-30

The medical performance evaluation, which provides a basis for rational decision-making, is an important part of medical service research. Current progress with health services reform in China is far from satisfactory, without sufficient regulation. To achieve better progress, an effective tool for evaluating medical performance needs to be established. In view of this, this study attempted to develop such a tool appropriate for the Chinese context. Data was collected from the front pages of medical records (FPMR) of all large general public hospitals (21 hospitals) in the third and fourth quarter of 2007. Locally developed Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs) were introduced as a tool for risk adjustment and performance evaluation indicators were established: Charge Efficiency Index (CEI), Time Efficiency Index (TEI) and inpatient mortality of low-risk group cases (IMLRG), to reflect respectively work efficiency and medical service quality. Using these indicators, the inpatient services' performance was horizontally compared among hospitals. Case-mix Index (CMI) was used to adjust efficiency indices and then produce adjusted CEI (aCEI) and adjusted TEI (aTEI). Poisson distribution analysis was used to test the statistical significance of the IMLRG differences between different hospitals. Using the aCEI, aTEI and IMLRG scores for the 21 hospitals, Hospital A and C had relatively good overall performance because their medical charges were lower, LOS shorter and IMLRG smaller. The performance of Hospital P and Q was the worst due to their relatively high charge level, long LOS and high IMLRG. Various performance problems also existed in the other hospitals. It is possible to develop an accurate and easy to run performance evaluation system using Case-Mix as the tool for risk adjustment, choosing indicators close to consumers and managers, and utilizing routine report forms as the basic information source. To keep such a system running effectively, it is necessary to

Lung Cancer Risk Among Hairdressers: A Pooled Analysis of Case-Control Studies Conducted Between 1985 and 2010

PubMed Central

Olsson, Ann C.; Xu, Yiwen; Schüz, Joachim; Vlaanderen, Jelle; Kromhout, Hans; Vermeulen, Roel; Peters, Susan; Stücker, Isabelle; Guida, Florence; Brüske, Irene; Wichmann, Heinz-Erich; Consonni, Dario; Landi, Maria Teresa; Caporaso, Neil; Tse, Lap Ah; Yu, Ignatius Tak-sun; Siemiatycki, Jack; Richardson, Lesley; Mirabelli, Dario; Richiardi, Lorenzo; Simonato, Lorenzo; Gustavsson, Per; Plato, Nils; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Ahrens, Wolfgang; Pohlabeln, Hermann; Tardón, Adonina; Zaridze, David; Marcus, Michael W.; ‘t Mannetje, Andrea; Pearce, Neil; McLaughlin, John; Demers, Paul; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonila; Lissowska, Jolanta; Rudnai, Peter; Fabianova, Eleonora; Dumitru, Rodica Stanescu; Bencko, Vladimir; Foretova, Lenka; Janout, Vladimir; Boffetta, Paolo; Fortes, Cristina; Bueno-de-Mesquita, Bas; Kendzia, Benjamin; Behrens, Thomas; Pesch, Beate; Brüning, Thomas; Straif, Kurt

2013-01-01

Increased lung cancer risks among hairdressers were observed in large registry-based cohort studies from Scandinavia, but these studies could not adjust for smoking. Our objective was to evaluate the lung cancer risk among hairdressers while adjusting for smoking and other confounders in a pooled database of 16 case-control studies conducted in Europe, Canada, China, and New Zealand between 1985 and 2010 (the Pooled Analysis of Case-Control Studies on the Joint Effects of Occupational Carcinogens in the Development of Lung Cancer). Lifetime occupational and smoking information was collected through interviews with 19,369 cases of lung cancer and 23,674 matched population or hospital controls. Overall, 170 cases and 167 controls had ever worked as hairdresser or barber. The odds ratios for lung cancer in women were 1.65 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 2.35) without adjustment for smoking and 1.12 (95% CI: 0.75, 1.68) with adjustment for smoking; however, women employed before 1954 also experienced an increased lung cancer risk after adjustment for smoking (odds ratio = 2.66, 95% CI: 1.09, 6.47). The odds ratios in male hairdressers/barbers were generally not elevated, except for an increased odds ratio for adenocarcinoma in long-term barbers (odds ratio = 2.20, 95% CI: 1.02, 4.77). Our results suggest that the increased lung cancer risks among hairdressers are due to their smoking behavior; single elevated risk estimates should be interpreted with caution and need replication in other studies. PMID:24068200

Waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and triglyceride to HDL-C ratio (TG/HDL-c) as predictors of cardiometabolic risk.

PubMed

Weiler Miralles, Clara Silvana; Wollinger, Luana Maria; Marin, Débora; Genro, Julia Pasqualini; Contini, Veronica; Morelo Dal Bosco, Simone

2015-05-01

The excessive concentration of fat in the abdominal region is related to a higher risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD). Studies have been performed to identify simple and effective indicators of abdominal obesity and associated cardiometabolic risk through the use of simple parameters such as anthropometric and biochemical measures. The Triglyceride / High-density Lipoprotein Cholesterol (TG/HDL-c) has been proposed as a more practical and easy to use atherogenic marker, along with the Waist-to-Height Ratio (WHtR), which makes a superior tool for separating cardiometabolic risk related to overweight/obesity when comparing to Body Mass Index (BMI). To verify the applicability of the WHtR and the TG/HDL-c ratio as predictors of cardiometabolic risk. This cross-sectional study was performed at the Department of Nutrition of the UNIVATES University Center, where the participant's anthropometric and biochemical data were collected. Statistical analysis was performed by the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences software (SPSS) 20.0, with a significance level of 5% (p < 0.05). A total of 498 individuals took part on this research, 77.5% female and with a mean age of 25.5 ± 6.5. A high percentage of fat was found in both men and women (19.9 ± 5.80% and 29.24 ± 5.43%, respectively). The prevalence of overweight/obesity (BMI ≥ 25Kg/m(2)) was 35.05%. The WHtR marker was significantly correlated to Low-density Lipoprotein Cholesterol (LDL-c), Triglyceride (TG) and Anthropometric BMI values, waist circumference (WC) and body fat percentage (BF%). For the TG/HDL-c ratio, there was a positive and significant correlation to the same markers, beyond TC. There was also a correlation between WHtR and TG/HDL-c, and both presented a negative and significant correlation with HDL-c. WHtR and TG/HDL-c values were found to be good markers for the cardiometabolic risk ratio in the studied sample. Several studies, original articles and academic reviews confirm the use

Health Professionals Prefer to Communicate Risk-Related Numerical Information Using "1-in-X" Ratios.

PubMed

Sirota, Miroslav; Juanchich, Marie; Petrova, Dafina; Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Walasek, Lukasz; Bhatia, Sudeep

2018-04-01

Previous research has shown that format effects, such as the "1-in-X" effect-whereby "1-in-X" ratios lead to a higher perceived probability than "N-in-N*X" ratios-alter perceptions of medical probabilities. We do not know, however, how prevalent this effect is in practice; i.e., how often health professionals use the "1-in-X" ratio. We assembled 4 different sources of evidence, involving experimental work and corpus studies, to examine the use of "1-in-X" and other numerical formats quantifying probability. Our results revealed that the use of the "1-in-X" ratio is prevalent and that health professionals prefer this format compared with other numerical formats (i.e., the "N-in-N*X", %, and decimal formats). In Study 1, UK family physicians preferred to communicate prenatal risk using a "1-in-X" ratio (80.4%, n = 131) across different risk levels and regardless of patients' numeracy levels. In Study 2, a sample from the UK adult population ( n = 203) reported that most GPs (60.6%) preferred to use "1-in-X" ratios compared with other formats. In Study 3, "1-in-X" ratios were the most commonly used format in a set of randomly sampled drug leaflets describing the risk of side effects (100%, n = 94). In Study 4, the "1-in-X" format was the most commonly used numerical expression of medical probabilities or frequencies on the UK's NHS website (45.7%, n = 2,469 sentences). The prevalent use of "1-in-X" ratios magnifies the chances of increased subjective probability. Further research should establish clinical significance of the "1-in-X" effect.

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio as a marker of systemic endothelial dysfunction in asymptomatic subjects.

PubMed

Martínez-Urbistondo, Diego; Beltrán, Almudena; Beloqui, Oscar; Huerta, Ana

2016-01-01

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio has demonstrated to be a prognostic inflammatory marker in cardiovascular disease. The objective of this study is to evaluate the association between neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and pathologic urinary albumin/creatinine ratio as an early marker of cardiovascular risk and systemic endothelial dysfunction, associated with microvascular disease, in asymptomatic subjects. A unicenter cross-sectional study was conducted, including 1816 asymptomatic subjects. Patients with previous cardiovascular disease, those who were treated with ACE inhibitors and/or angiotensin II receptor blockers and patients with albumin/creatinine ratio over 300mg/g were excluded. The outcome of the study was the presence of a pathologic urinary albumin/creatinine ratio. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio was significantly associated with altered urinary albumin/creatinine ratio in the univariate analysis and after adjustment for other known endothelial and cardiovascular risk factors (age, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, diabetes or altered glomerular filtration rate). Based on the sensitivity and specificity of different neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio thresholds, 3 risk groups were created for altered urinary albumin/creatinine ratio: low risk in those with neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio < 1.5, intermediate risk in patients between 1.5 and 3, and high risk in those with neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio > 3. These groups were found to have a statistically significant and independent prognostic power for altered urinary albumin/creatinine ratio in asymptomatic patients. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio appears to be a cost-efficient, non-invasive and independent potential marker of systemic endothelial dysfunction in asymptomatic subjects. Copyright © 2015 Sociedad Española de Nefrología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Protein/energy ratios of current diets in developed and developing countries compared with a safe protein/energy ratio: implications for recommended protein and amino acid intakes.

PubMed

Millward, D Joe; Jackson, Alan A

2004-05-01

Revised estimates of protein and amino acid requirements are under discussion by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)/World Health Organizaion (WHO), and have been proposed in a recent report on Dietary Reference Intakes (DRIs) from the USA. The nature and magnitude of these requirements are not entirely resolved, and no consideration has been given to the potential influence of metabolic adaptation on dietary requirements. We have examined the implications of these new values, and of the conceptual metabolic framework in which they are used, for defining the nutritional adequacy of protein intakes in developed and developing countries. We have expressed proposed values for protein requirements in relation to energy requirements, predicted for physical activity levels of 1.5, 1.75 and 2.0 times basal metabolic rate, in order to generate reference ratios for protein energy/total energy (reference P/E ratio) as a function of age, body weight, gender and physical activity level. Proposed values for amino acid requirements have been used to adjust the available digestible P/E ratio of foods and diets for protein quality. Focusing on the diets of UK omnivores and vegetarians and on diets in India, the risk of protein deficiency is evaluated from a comparison of P/E ratios of metabolic requirements with protein-quality-adjusted P/E ratios of intakes. A qualitative and conservative estimate of risk of deficiency is made by comparing the adjusted P/E ratio of the intake with a reference P/E ratio calculated for age, body weight, gender and physical activity according to FAO/WHO/United Nations University. A semi-quantitative estimate of risk of deficiency has also been made by the cut point approach, calculated as the proportion of the intake distribution below the mean P/E ratio of the requirement. Values for the quality-adjusted P/E ratio of the diet range from 0.126 for the UK omnivore diet to 0.054 for a rice-based diet of adults in West Bengal, which is lysine

Cat exposure in early life decreases asthma risk from the 17q21 high-risk variant.

PubMed

Stokholm, Jakob; Chawes, Bo L; Vissing, Nadja; Bønnelykke, Klaus; Bisgaard, Hans

2018-05-01

Early-life exposure to cats and dogs has shown diverging associations with childhood asthma risk, and gene-environment interaction is one possible explanation. We investigated interactions between cat and dog exposure and single nucleotide polymorphism rs7216389 variants in the chromosome 17q21 locus, the strongest known genetic risk factor for childhood asthma. Genotyping was performed in 377 children from the at-risk Copenhagen Prospective Studies on Asthma in Childhood 2000 . The primary end point was the development of asthma until age 12 years. The secondary end point was the number of episodes with pneumonia and bronchiolitis from 0 to 3 years of age. Exposures included cat and dog ownership from birth and cat and dog allergen levels in bedding at age 1 year. Replication was performed in the unselected COPSAC 2010 cohort with follow-up until 5 years of age. Cat and/or dog exposure from birth was associated with a lower prevalence of asthma among children with the rs7216389 high-risk TT genotype (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.04-0.71; P = .015), with no effect in those with the CC/CT genotype (adjusted P = .283), demonstrating interaction between cat and dog exposure and the rs7216389 genotype (adjusted P = .044). Cat allergen levels were inversely associated with asthma development in children with the TT genotype (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.71-0.97; P = .022), supporting the cat-rs7216389 genotype interaction (adjusted P = .008). Dog allergen exposure did not show such interaction. Furthermore, the TT genotype was associated with higher risk of pneumonia and bronchiolitis, and this increased risk was likewise decreased in children exposed to cat. Replication showed similar effects on asthma risk. The observed gene-environment interaction suggests a role of early-life exposure, especially to cat, for attenuating the risk of childhood asthma, pneumonia, and bronchiolitis in genetically susceptible subjects. Copyright © 2017

Using risk adjustment approaches in child welfare performance measurement: Applications and insights from health and mental health settings

PubMed Central

Raghavan, Ramesh

2014-01-01

Federal policymaking in the last decade has dramatically expanded performance measurement within child welfare systems, and states are currently being fiscally penalized for poor performance on defined outcomes. However, in contrast to performance measurement in health settings, current policy holds child welfare systems solely responsible for meeting outcomes, largely without taking into account the effects of factors at the level of the child, and his or her social ecology, that might undermine the performance of child welfare agencies. Appropriate measurement of performance is predicated upon the ability to disentangle individual, as opposed to organizational, determinants of outcomes, which is the goal of risk adjustment methodologies. This review briefly conceptualizes and examines risk adjustment approaches in health and child welfare, suggests approaches to expanding its use to appropriately measure the performance of child welfare agencies, and highlights research gaps that diminish the appropriate use of risk adjustment approaches – and which consequently suggest the need for caution – in policymaking around performance measurement of child welfare agencies. PMID:25253917

A population health approach to reducing observational intensity bias in health risk adjustment: cross sectional analysis of insurance claims

PubMed Central

Sharp, Sandra M; Bevan, Gwyn; Skinner, Jonathan S; Gottlieb, Daniel J

2014-01-01

Objective To compare the performance of two new approaches to risk adjustment that are free of the influence of observational intensity with methods that depend on diagnoses listed in administrative databases. Setting Administrative data from the US Medicare program for services provided in 2007 among 306 US hospital referral regions. Design Cross sectional analysis. Participants 20% sample of fee for service Medicare beneficiaries residing in one of 306 hospital referral regions in the United States in 2007 (n=5 153 877). Main outcome measures The effect of health risk adjustment on age, sex, and race adjusted mortality and spending rates among hospital referral regions using four indices: the standard Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services—Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCC) index used by the US Medicare program (calculated from diagnoses listed in Medicare’s administrative database); a visit corrected HCC index (to reduce the effects of observational intensity on frequency of diagnoses); a poverty index (based on US census); and a population health index (calculated using data on incidence of hip fractures and strokes, and responses from a population based annual survey of health from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). Results Estimated variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality rates across hospital referral regions was reduced using the indices based on population health, poverty, and visit corrected HCC, but increased using the standard HCC index. Most of the residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality was explained (in terms of weighted R2) by the population health index: R2=0.65. The other indices explained less: R2=0.20 for the visit corrected HCC index; 0.19 for the poverty index, and 0.02 for the standard HCC index. The residual variation in age, sex, race, and price adjusted spending per capita across the 306 hospital referral regions explained by the indices (in terms of weighted R2) were 0.50 for

A population health approach to reducing observational intensity bias in health risk adjustment: cross sectional analysis of insurance claims.

PubMed

Wennberg, David E; Sharp, Sandra M; Bevan, Gwyn; Skinner, Jonathan S; Gottlieb, Daniel J; Wennberg, John E

2014-04-10

To compare the performance of two new approaches to risk adjustment that are free of the influence of observational intensity with methods that depend on diagnoses listed in administrative databases. Administrative data from the US Medicare program for services provided in 2007 among 306 US hospital referral regions. Cross sectional analysis. 20% sample of fee for service Medicare beneficiaries residing in one of 306 hospital referral regions in the United States in 2007 (n = 5,153,877). The effect of health risk adjustment on age, sex, and race adjusted mortality and spending rates among hospital referral regions using four indices: the standard Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services--Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCC) index used by the US Medicare program (calculated from diagnoses listed in Medicare's administrative database); a visit corrected HCC index (to reduce the effects of observational intensity on frequency of diagnoses); a poverty index (based on US census); and a population health index (calculated using data on incidence of hip fractures and strokes, and responses from a population based annual survey of health from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). Estimated variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality rates across hospital referral regions was reduced using the indices based on population health, poverty, and visit corrected HCC, but increased using the standard HCC index. Most of the residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality was explained (in terms of weighted R2) by the population health index: R2=0.65. The other indices explained less: R2=0.20 for the visit corrected HCC index; 0.19 for the poverty index, and 0.02 for the standard HCC index. The residual variation in age, sex, race, and price adjusted spending per capita across the 306 hospital referral regions explained by the indices (in terms of weighted R2) were 0.50 for the standard HCC index, 0.21 for the population health index, 0.12 for the

The sFlt-1/PlGF ratio associates with prolongation and adverse outcome of pregnancy in women with (suspected) preeclampsia: analysis of a high-risk cohort.

PubMed

Saleh, Langeza; Verdonk, Koen; Jan Danser, A H; Steegers, Eric A P; Russcher, Henk; van den Meiracker, Anton H; Visser, Willy

2016-04-01

To evaluate the additive value of the sFlt-1/PlGF ratio for diagnosing preeclampsia (PE) and predicting prolongation of pregnancy and adverse outcome in a cohort of women with PE or at high risk of PE. Patients with suspected or confirmed clinical PE were recruited. At time of inclusion blood for measurement of sFlt-1and PlGF was taken. Values were determined after delivery. A cut-off ratio of ≥85 was defined as a positive test. A total of 107 patients were included. Of the patients, 62 (58%) met the clinical criteria of PE at time of blood sampling. In 10% of these patients (n=6) the ratio was <85 (false negative), whereas in 7% (n=3) of patients without clinical PE the ratio was ≥85 (false positive), resulting in positive and negative predictive values of 95% and 88% respectively. One patient with false positive ratio developed superimposed PE and 2 developed gestational hypertension, and adverse outcome occurred in all three. An adverse pregnancy outcome was only encountered in 1 of the 6 patients with a false negative ratio. Using a binary regression model with adjustment for gestational age <34 weeks, the adverse outcome risk was 11 times increased on the basis of clinical PE, and 30 times on the basis of an elevated ratio (P=0.036). The additive value of an increased ratio for diagnosing PE is limited since most patients with clinical PE also have a positive ratio. However, an elevated ratio is superior to the clinical diagnosis of PE for predicting an adverse pregnancy outcome. Furthermore, irrespective of clinical PE, a low ratio is inversely correlated with prolongation of pregnancy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cumulative Socioeconomic Status Risk, Allostatic Load, and Adjustment: A Prospective Latent Profile Analysis With Contextual and Genetic Protective Factors

PubMed Central

Brody, Gene H.; Yu, Tianyi; Chen, Yi-fu; Kogan, Steven M.; Evans, Gary W.; Beach, Steven R. H.; Windle, Michael; Simons, Ronald L.; Gerrard, Meg; Gibbons, Frederick X.; Philibert, Robert A.

2012-01-01

The health disparities literature identified a common pattern among middle-aged African Americans that includes high rates of chronic disease along with low rates of psychiatric disorders despite exposure to high levels of cumulative SES risk. The current study was designed to test hypotheses about the developmental precursors to this pattern. Hypotheses were tested with a representative sample of 443 African American youths living in the rural South. Cumulative SES risk and protective processes were assessed at 11-13 years; psychological adjustment was assessed at ages 14-18 years; genotyping at the 5-HTTLPR was conducted at age 16 years; and allostatic load (AL) was assessed at age 19 years. A Latent Profile Analysis identified 5 profiles that evinced distinct patterns of SES risk, AL, and psychological adjustment, with 2 relatively large profiles designated as focal profiles: a physical health vulnerability profile characterized by high SES risk/high AL/low adjustment problems, and a resilient profile characterized by high SES risk/low AL/low adjustment problems. The physical health vulnerability profile mirrored the pattern found in the adult health disparities literature. Multinomial logistic regression analyses indicated that carrying an s allele at the 5-HTTLPR and receiving less peer support distinguished the physical health vulnerability profile from the resilient profile. Protective parenting and planful self-regulation distinguished both focal profiles from the other 3 profiles. The results suggest the public health importance of preventive interventions that enhance coping and reduce the effects of stress across childhood and adolescence. PMID:22709130

Cumulative socioeconomic status risk, allostatic load, and adjustment: a prospective latent profile analysis with contextual and genetic protective factors.

PubMed

Brody, Gene H; Yu, Tianyi; Chen, Yi-fu; Kogan, Steven M; Evans, Gary W; Beach, Steven R H; Windle, Michael; Simons, Ronald L; Gerrard, Meg; Gibbons, Frederick X; Philibert, Robert A

2013-05-01

The health disparities literature has identified a common pattern among middle-aged African Americans that includes high rates of chronic disease along with low rates of psychiatric disorders despite exposure to high levels of cumulative socioeconomic status (SES) risk. The current study was designed to test hypotheses about the developmental precursors to this pattern. Hypotheses were tested with a representative sample of 443 African American youths living in the rural South. Cumulative SES risk and protective processes were assessed at ages 11-13 years; psychological adjustment was assessed at ages 14-18 years; genotyping at the 5-HTTLPR was conducted at age 16 years; and allostatic load (AL) was assessed at age 19 years. A latent profile analysis identified 5 profiles that evinced distinct patterns of SES risk, AL, and psychological adjustment, with 2 relatively large profiles designated as focal profiles: a physical health vulnerability profile characterized by high SES risk/high AL/low adjustment problems, and a resilient profile characterized by high SES risk/low AL/low adjustment problems. The physical health vulnerability profile mirrored the pattern found in the adult health disparities literature. Multinomial logistic regression analyses indicated that carrying an s allele at the 5-HTTLPR and receiving less peer support distinguished the physical health vulnerability profile from the resilient profile. Protective parenting and planful self-regulation distinguished both focal profiles from the other 3 profiles. The results suggest the public health importance of preventive interventions that enhance coping and reduce the effects of stress across childhood and adolescence.

Comparison of Aspirin and Naoxintong Capsule () with Adjusted-Dose Warfarin in Elderly Patients with High-Risk of Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation and Genetic Variants of Vitamin K Epoxide Reductase.

PubMed

Wang, Huan; Zhou, Xiao-Kai; Zheng, Li-Fan; Wu, Xiao-Ying; Chen, Hui

2018-04-01

To compared the therapeutic effect of a Chinese patent medicine Naoxintong Capsule (, NXT) and aspirin with adjusted-dose warfarin in Chinese elderly patients (over 65 years) with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) and genetic variants of vitamin K epoxide reductase (VKORC1), who are at high-risk of thromboembolism. A total of 151 patients, with NVAF and AA genotype of VKORC1-1639 (a sensitive genotype to warfarin) and a CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc clinical risk score of 2 or above, were chosen for this study. Patients were randomized into two groups and orally treated with a combination of aspirin (100 mg/day) and NXT (1.6 g thrice a day) or adjusted-dose warfarin [international normalized ratio 2.0-3.0). The primary end points including ischemic stroke and death as well as the secondary end points including hemorrhage events were followed up for at least 1 year. Baseline clinical data and the rates of primary end points were similar between groups. However, the rate of serious bleeding (secondary event) in the combination therapy group was lower than that in the adjusted-dose warfarin group (0% vs. 7.9%, odds ratio: 0.921, 95% confidence interval: 0.862-0.984, P=0.028). Aspirin combined with NXT and warfarin displayed comparable rates of primary end point including ischemic stroke and all-cause death during the 1-year follow-up. However, as compared with warfarin, the combination therapy reduced the rate of serious bleeding. Therefore, aspirin combined with NXT might provide an alternative pharmacotherapy in preventing ischemic stroke for elderly patients with NAVF who cannot tolerate warfarin. (No. ChiCTR-TRC-13003596).

Risk adjusted surgical audit in gynaecological oncology: P-POSSUM does not predict outcome.

PubMed

Das, N; Talaat, A S; Naik, R; Lopes, A D; Godfrey, K A; Hatem, M H; Edmondson, R J

2006-12-01

To assess the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and its validity for use in gynaecological oncology surgery. All patients undergoing gynaecological oncology surgery at the Northern Gynaecological Oncology Centre (NGOC) Gateshead, UK over a period of 12months (2002-2003) were assessed prospectively. Mortality and morbidity predictions using the Portsmouth modification of the POSSUM algorithm (P-POSSUM) were compared to the actual outcomes. Performance of the model was also evaluated using the Hosmer and Lemeshow Chi square statistic (testing the goodness of fit). During this period 468 patients were assessed. The P-POSSUM appeared to over predict mortality rates for our patients. It predicted a 7% mortality rate for our patients compared to an observed rate of 2% (35 predicted deaths in comparison to 10 observed deaths), a difference that was statistically significant (H&L chi(2)=542.9, d.f. 8, p<0.05). The P-POSSUM algorithm overestimates the risk of mortality for gynaecological oncology patients undergoing surgery. The P-POSSUM algorithm will require further adjustments prior to adoption for gynaecological cancer surgery as a risk adjusted surgical audit tool.

Confounding by dietary patterns of the inverse association between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes risk.

PubMed

Imamura, Fumiaki; Lichtenstein, Alice H; Dallal, Gerard E; Meigs, James B; Jacques, Paul F

2009-07-01

The ability to interpret epidemiologic observations is limited because of potential residual confounding by correlated dietary components. Dietary pattern analyses by factor analysis or partial least squares may overcome the limitation. To examine confounding by dietary pattern as well as standard risk factors and selected nutrients, the authors modeled the longitudinal association between alcohol consumption and 7-year risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in 2,879 healthy adults enrolled in the Framingham Offspring Study (1991-2001) by Cox proportional hazard models. After adjustment for standard risk factors, consumers of > or =9.0 drinks/week had a significantly lower risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus compared with abstainers (hazard ratio = 0.47, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.27, 0.81). Adjustment for selected nutrients had little effect on the hazard ratio, whereas adjustment for dietary pattern variables by factor analysis significantly shifted the hazard ratio away from null (hazard ratio = 0.33, 95% CI: 0.17, 0.64) by 40.0% (95% CI: 16.8, 57.0; P = 0.002). Dietary pattern variables by partial least squares showed similar results. Therefore, the observed inverse association, consistent with past studies, was confounded by dietary patterns, and this confounding was not captured by individual nutrient adjustment. The data suggest that alcohol intake, not dietary patterns associated with alcohol intake, is responsible for the observed inverse association with type 2 diabetes mellitus risk.

A comparative evaluation of risk-adjustment models for benchmarking amputation-free survival after lower extremity bypass.

PubMed

Simons, Jessica P; Goodney, Philip P; Flahive, Julie; Hoel, Andrew W; Hallett, John W; Kraiss, Larry W; Schanzer, Andres

2016-04-01

Providing patients and payers with publicly reported risk-adjusted quality metrics for the purpose of benchmarking physicians and institutions has become a national priority. Several prediction models have been developed to estimate outcomes after lower extremity revascularization for critical limb ischemia, but the optimal model to use in contemporary practice has not been defined. We sought to identify the highest-performing risk-adjustment model for amputation-free survival (AFS) at 1 year after lower extremity bypass (LEB). We used the national Society for Vascular Surgery Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) database (2003-2012) to assess the performance of three previously validated risk-adjustment models for AFS. The Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg (BASIL), Finland National Vascular (FINNVASC) registry, and the modified Project of Ex-vivo vein graft Engineering via Transfection III (PREVENT III [mPIII]) risk scores were applied to the VQI cohort. A novel model for 1-year AFS was also derived using the VQI data set and externally validated using the PIII data set. The relative discrimination (Harrell c-index) and calibration (Hosmer-May goodness-of-fit test) of each model were compared. Among 7754 patients in the VQI who underwent LEB for critical limb ischemia, the AFS was 74% at 1 year. Each of the previously published models for AFS demonstrated similar discriminative performance: c-indices for BASIL, FINNVASC, mPIII were 0.66, 0.60, and 0.64, respectively. The novel VQI-derived model had improved discriminative ability with a c-index of 0.71 and appropriate generalizability on external validation with a c-index of 0.68. The model was well calibrated in both the VQI and PIII data sets (goodness of fit P = not significant). Currently available prediction models for AFS after LEB perform modestly when applied to national contemporary VQI data. Moreover, the performance of each model was inferior to that of the novel VQI-derived model

Parity and risk of hemorrhagic strokes.

PubMed

Jung, Sun-Young; Bae, Hee-Joon; Park, Byung-Joo; Yoon, Byung-Woo

2010-05-04

The association between parity and risk of hemorrhagic stroke (HS) remains to be clarified. This study assessed the association of parity with the overall risk of HS and compared its contribution to intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). We used a database from a nationwide multicenter case-control study, in which 471 female cases with incident HS were matched at 1:2 with 942 community or hospital controls. A total of 459 HS cases and 918 controls with information on parity were included. Parity was categorized as 0-1, 2, 3, and >or=4. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by conditional logistic regression. As potential confounders, age, history of hypertension, history of diabetes, family history of stroke, smoking status, alcohol consumption, educational status, age at menarche, and use of oral contraceptives were included in the models. Compared with nullipara and unipara, women with parity of 2, 3, and >or=4 had significantly higher risk for total HS, ICH, and SAH, respectively. Each additional parity increased the ORs of HS (adjusted OR for total HS = 1.27 [95% CI 1.14-1.41]; adjusted OR for SAH = 1.34 [95% CI 1.13-1.58]; adjusted OR for ICH = 1.27 [95% CI 1.08-1.48]). Likelihood ratio test for trends showed a significantly increased risk with increasing parity for total HS and for both types of HS (p(trend) < 0.05 in all analyses). Increased number of childbirths may be related to an increased risk of both intracerebral hemorrhage and subarachnoid hemorrhage.

One idea of portfolio risk control for absolute return strategy risk adjustments by signals from correlation behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishiyama, N.

2001-12-01

Absolute return strategy provided from fund of funds (FOFs) investment schemes is the focus in Japanese Financial Community. FOFs investment mainly consists of hedge fund investment and it has two major characteristics which are low correlation against benchmark index and little impact from various external changes in the environment given maximizing return. According to the historical track record of survival hedge funds in this business world, they maintain a stable high return and low risk. However, one must keep in mind that low risk would not be equal to risk free. The failure of Long-term capital management (LTCM) that took place in the summer of 1998 was a symbolized phenomenon. The summer of 1998 exhibited a certain limitation of traditional value at risk (VaR) and some possibility that traditional VaR could be ineffectual to the nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market. In this paper, I try to bring self-organized criticality (SOC) into portfolio risk control. SOC would be well known as a model of decay in the natural world. I analyzed nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market as SOC and applied SOC to capture complicated market movement using threshold point of SOC and risk adjustments by scenario correlation as implicit signals. Threshold becomes the control parameter of risk exposure to set downside floor and forecast extreme nonlinear type of fluctuation under a certain probability. Simulation results would show synergy effect of portfolio risk control between SOC and absolute return strategy.

Body composition status and the risk of migraine: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Gelaye, Bizu; Sacco, Simona; Brown, Wendy J; Nitchie, Haley L; Ornello, Raffaele; Peterlin, B Lee

2017-05-09

To evaluate the association between migraine and body composition status as estimated based on body mass index and WHO physical status categories. Systematic electronic database searches were conducted for relevant studies. Two independent reviewers performed data extraction and quality appraisal. Odds ratios (OR) and confidence intervals (CI) were pooled using a random effects model. Significant values, weighted effect sizes, and tests of homogeneity of variance were calculated. A total of 12 studies, encompassing data from 288,981 unique participants, were included. The age- and sex-adjusted pooled risk of migraine in those with obesity was increased by 27% compared with those of normal weight (odds ratio [OR] 1.27; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16-1.37, p < 0.001) and remained increased after multivariate adjustments. Although the age- and sex-adjusted pooled migraine risk was increased in overweight individuals (OR 1.08; 95% CI 1.04, 1.12, p < 0.001), significance was lost after multivariate adjustments. The age- and sex-adjusted pooled risk of migraine in underweight individuals was marginally increased by 13% compared with those of normal weight (OR 1.13; 95% CI 1.02, 1.24, p < 0.001) and remained increased after multivariate adjustments. The current body of evidence shows that the risk of migraine is increased in obese and underweight individuals. Studies are needed to confirm whether interventions that modify obesity status decrease the risk of migraine. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

Health-adjusted premium subsidies in the Netherlands.

PubMed

van de Ven, Wynand P M M; van Vliet, René C J A; Lamers, Leida M

2004-01-01

The Dutch government has decided to proceed with managed competition in health care. In this paper we report on progress made with health-based risk adjustment, a key issue in managed competition. In 2004 both Diagnostic Cost Groups (DCGs) computed from hospital diagnoses only and Pharmacy-based Cost Groups (PCGs) computed from out-patient prescription drugs are used to set the premium subsidies for competing risk-bearing sickness funds. These health-based risk adjusters appear to be effective and complementary. Risk selection is not a major problem in the Netherlands. Despite the progress made, we are still faced with a full research agenda for risk adjustment in the coming years.

A combined microfinance and training intervention can reduce HIV risk behaviour in young female participants.

PubMed

Pronyk, Paul M; Kim, Julia C; Abramsky, Tanya; Phetla, Godfrey; Hargreaves, James R; Morison, Linda A; Watts, Charlotte; Busza, Joanna; Porter, John Dh

2008-08-20

To assess effects of a combined microfinance and training intervention on HIV risk behavior among young female participants in rural South Africa. : Secondary analysis of quantitative and qualitative data from a cluster randomized trial, the Intervention with Microfinance for AIDS and Gender Equity study. Eight villages were pair-matched and randomly allocated to receive the intervention. At baseline and after 2 years, HIV risk behavior was assessed among female participants aged 14-35 years. Their responses were compared with women of the same age and poverty group from control villages. Intervention effects were calculated using adjusted risk ratios employing village level summaries. Qualitative data collected during the study explored participants' responses to the intervention including HIV risk behavior. After 2 years of follow-up, when compared with controls, young participants had higher levels of HIV-related communication (adjusted risk ratio 1.46, 95% confidence interval 1.01-2.12), were more likely to have accessed voluntary counseling and testing (adjusted risk ratio 1.64, 95% confidence interval 1.06-2.56), and less likely to have had unprotected sex at last intercourse with a nonspousal partner (adjusted risk ratio 0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.60-0.96). Qualitative data suggest a greater acceptance of intrahousehold communication about HIV and sexuality. Although women noted challenges associated with acceptance of condoms by men, increased confidence and skills associated with participation in the intervention supported their introduction in sexual relationships. In addition to impacts on economic well being, women's empowerment and intimate partner violence, interventions addressing the economic and social vulnerability of women may contribute to reductions in HIV risk behavior.

Association of surgical care improvement project infection-related process measure compliance with risk-adjusted outcomes: implications for quality measurement.

PubMed

Ingraham, Angela M; Cohen, Mark E; Bilimoria, Karl Y; Dimick, Justin B; Richards, Karen E; Raval, Mehul V; Fleisher, Lee A; Hall, Bruce L; Ko, Clifford Y

2010-12-01

Facility-level process measure adherence is being publicly reported. However, the association between measure adherence and surgical outcomes is not well-established. Our objective was to determine the degree to which Surgical Care Improvement Project (SCIP) process measures are associated with American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) risk-adjusted outcomes. This cross-sectional study included hospitals participating in the ACS NSQIP and SCIP (n = 200). ACS NSQIP outcomes (30-day overall morbidity, serious morbidity, surgical site infections [SSI], and mortality) and adherence to SCIP SSI-related process measures (from the Hospital Compare database) were collected from January 1, 2008, through December 31, 2008. Hospital-level correlation coefficients between compliance with 4 process measures (ie, antibiotic administration within 1 hour before incision [SCIP-1]; appropriate antibiotic prophylaxis [SCIP-2]; antibiotic discontinuation within 24 hours after surgery [SCIP-3]; and appropriate hair removal [SCIP 6]) and 4 risk-adjusted outcomes were calculated. Regression analyses estimated the contribution of process measure adherence to risk-adjusted outcomes. Of 211 ACS NSQIP hospitals, 95% had data reported by Hospital Compare. Depending on the measure, hospital-level compliance ranged from 60% to 100%. Of the 16 correlations, 15 demonstrated nonsignificant associations with risk-adjusted outcomes. The exception was the relationship between SCIP-2 and SSI (p = 0.004). SCIP-1 demonstrated an intriguing but nonsignificant relationship with SSI (p = 0.08) and overall morbidity (p = 0.08). Although adherence to SCIP-2 was a significant predictor of risk-adjusted SSI (p < 0.0001) and overall morbidity (p < 0.0001), inclusion of compliance for SCIP-1 and SCIP-2 caused only slight improvement in model quality. Better adherence to infection-related process measures over the observed range was not significantly associated with

Assessing At-Risk Youth Using the Reynolds Adolescent Adjustment Screening Inventory with a Latino Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Balkin, Richard S.; Cavazos, Javier, Jr.; Hernandez, Arthur E.; Garcia, Roberto; Dominguez, Denise L.; Valarezo, Alexandra

2013-01-01

Factor analyses were conducted on scores from the Reynolds Adolescent Adjustment Screening Inventory (RAASI; Reynolds, 2001) representing at-risk Latino youth. The 4-factor model of the RAASI did not exhibit a good fit. However, evidence of generalizability for Latino youth was noted. (Contains 3 tables.)

Refined estimates of local recurrence risks by DCIS score adjusting for clinicopathological features: a combined analysis of ECOG-ACRIN E5194 and Ontario DCIS cohort studies.

PubMed

Rakovitch, E; Gray, R; Baehner, F L; Sutradhar, R; Crager, M; Gu, S; Nofech-Mozes, S; Badve, S S; Hanna, W; Hughes, L L; Wood, W C; Davidson, N E; Paszat, L; Shak, S; Sparano, J A; Solin, L J

2018-06-01

Better tools are needed to estimate local recurrence (LR) risk after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) for DCIS. The DCIS score (DS) was validated as a predictor of LR in E5194 and Ontario DCIS cohort (ODC) after BCS. We combined data from E5194 and ODC adjusting for clinicopathological factors to provide refined estimates of the 10-year risk of LR after treatment by BCS alone. Data from E5194 and ODC were combined. Patients with positive margins or multifocality were excluded. Identical Cox regression models were fit for each study. Patient-specific meta-analysis was used to calculate precision-weighted estimates of 10-year LR risk by DS, age, tumor size and year of diagnosis. The combined cohort includes 773 patients. The DS and age at diagnosis, tumor size and year of diagnosis provided independent prognostic information on the 10-year LR risk (p ≤ 0.009). Hazard ratios from E5194 and ODC cohorts were similar for the DS (2.48, 1.95 per 50 units), tumor size ≤ 1 versus  > 1-2.5 cm (1.45, 1.47), age ≥ 50 versus < 50 year (0.61, 0.84) and year ≥ 2000 (0.67, 0.49). Utilization of DS combined with tumor size and age at diagnosis predicted more women with very low (≤ 8%) or higher (> 15%) 10-year LR risk after BCS alone compared to utilization of DS alone or clinicopathological factors alone. The combined analysis provides refined estimates of 10-year LR risk after BCS for DCIS. Adding information on tumor size and age at diagnosis to the DS adjusting for year of diagnosis provides improved LR risk estimates to guide treatment decision making.

Variability in case-mix adjusted in-hospital cardiac arrest rates.

PubMed

Merchant, Raina M; Yang, Lin; Becker, Lance B; Berg, Robert A; Nadkarni, Vinay; Nichol, Graham; Carr, Brendan G; Mitra, Nandita; Bradley, Steven M; Abella, Benjamin S; Groeneveld, Peter W

2012-02-01

It is unknown how in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) rates vary across hospitals and predictors of variability. Measure variability in IHCA across hospitals and determine if hospital-level factors predict differences in case-mix adjusted event rates. Get with the Guidelines Resuscitation (GWTG-R) (n=433 hospitals) was used to identify IHCA events between 2003 and 2007. The American Hospital Association survey, Medicare, and US Census were used to obtain detailed information about GWTG-R hospitals. Adult patients with IHCA. Case-mix-adjusted predicted IHCA rates were calculated for each hospital and variability across hospitals was compared. A regression model was used to predict case-mix adjusted event rates using hospital measures of volume, nurse-to-bed ratio, percent intensive care unit beds, palliative care services, urban designation, volume of black patients, income, trauma designation, academic designation, cardiac surgery capability, and a patient risk score. We evaluated 103,117 adult IHCAs at 433 US hospitals. The case-mix adjusted IHCA event rate was highly variable across hospitals, median 1/1000 bed days (interquartile range: 0.7 to 1.3 events/1000 bed days). In a multivariable regression model, case-mix adjusted IHCA event rates were highest in urban hospitals [rate ratio (RR), 1.1; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.0-1.3; P=0.03] and hospitals with higher proportions of black patients (RR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.0-1.3; P=0.01) and lower in larger hospitals (RR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.45-0.66; P<0.0001). Case-mix adjusted IHCA event rates varied considerably across hospitals. Several hospital factors associated with higher IHCA event rates were consistent with factors often linked with lower hospital quality of care.

Sex ratio of offspring of patients with prostatic cancer

PubMed Central

Hill, Gerry B.; Fincham, Shirley M.; Wijayasinghe, Chandrani; Haronga, Christine L.; Hendin, Michael M.

1985-01-01

We have examined the fertility of 354 patients with prostatic cancer and 597 controls who had married at least once and formed part of a population-based case-control study in Alberta. Considering offspring of both sexes, the mean fertility of the patients was 3.17, not significantly different from the mean of 3.11 for the controls. However, the sex ratios were significantly different, 56.5% of the patients' offspring being sons, compared with 50.1% of the controls' offspring. The difference in sex ratio persisted after adjustment for ethnic group, level of education and age at first marriage, which were found to be risk factors for prostatic cancer. PMID:4027827

Albuminuria and Rapid Loss of GFR and Risk of New Hip and Pelvic Fractures

PubMed Central

Gao, Peggy; Clase, Catherine M.; Mente, Andrew; Mann, Johannes F.E.; Sleight, Peter; Yusuf, Salim; Teo, Koon K.

2013-01-01

Summary Background and objectives The microvascular circulation plays an important role in bone health. This study examines whether albuminuria, a marker of renal microvascular disease, is associated with incident hip and pelvic fractures. Design, setting, participants, & measurements This study reanalyzed data from the Ongoing Telmisartan Alone and in combination with Ramipril Global End Point Trial/Telmisartan Randomized Assessment Study in Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Intolerant Subjects with Cardiovascular Disease trials, which examined the impact of renin angiotensin system blockade on cardiovascular outcomes (n=28,601). Albuminuria was defined as an albumin-to-creatinine ratio≥30 mg/g (n=4597). Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the association of albuminuria with fracture risk adjusted for known risk factors for fractures, estimated GFR, and rapid decline in estimated GFR (≥5%/yr). Results There were 276 hip and pelvic fractures during a mean of 4.6 years of follow-up. Participants with baseline albuminuria had a significantly increased risk of fracture compared with participants without albuminuria (unadjusted hazard ratio=1.62 [1.22, 2.15], P<0.001; adjusted hazard ratio=1.36 [1.01, 1.84], P=0.05). A dose-dependent relationship was observed, with macroalbuminuria having a large fracture risk (unadjusted hazard ratio=2.01 [1.21, 3.35], P=0.007; adjusted hazard ratio=1.71 [1.007, 2.91], P=0.05) and microalbuminuria associating with borderline or no statistical significance (unadjusted hazard ratio=1.52 [1.10, 2.09], P=0.01; adjusted hazard ratio=1.28 [0.92, 1.78], P=0.15). Estimated GFR was not a predictor of fracture in any model, but rapid loss of estimated GFR over the first 2 years of follow-up predicted subsequent fracture (adjusted hazard ratio=1.47 [1.05, 2.04], P=0.02). Conclusions Albuminuria, especially macroalbuminuria, and rapid decline of estimated GFR predict hip and pelvic fractures. These findings support a

Facultative adjustment of the offspring sex ratio and male attractiveness: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Booksmythe, Isobel; Mautz, Brian; Davis, Jacqueline; Nakagawa, Shinichi; Jennions, Michael D

2017-02-01

Females can benefit from mate choice for male traits (e.g. sexual ornaments or body condition) that reliably signal the effect that mating will have on mean offspring fitness. These male-derived benefits can be due to material and/or genetic effects. The latter include an increase in the attractiveness, hence likely mating success, of sons. Females can potentially enhance any sex-biased benefits of mating with certain males by adjusting the offspring sex ratio depending on their mate's phenotype. One hypothesis is that females should produce mainly sons when mating with more attractive or higher quality males. Here we perform a meta-analysis of the empirical literature that has accumulated to test this hypothesis. The mean effect size was small (r = 0.064-0.095; i.e. explaining <1% of variation in offspring sex ratios) but statistically significant in the predicted direction. It was, however, not robust to correction for an apparent publication bias towards significantly positive results. We also examined the strength of the relationship using different indices of male attractiveness/quality that have been invoked by researchers (ornaments, behavioural displays, female preference scores, body condition, male age, body size, and whether a male is a within-pair or extra-pair mate). Only ornamentation and body size significantly predicted the proportion of sons produced. We obtained similar results regardless of whether we ran a standard random-effects meta-analysis, or a multi-level, Bayesian model that included a correction for phylogenetic non-independence. A moderate proportion of the variance in effect sizes (51.6-56.2%) was due to variation that was not attributable to sampling error (i.e. sample size). Much of this non-sampling error variance was not attributable to phylogenetic effects or high repeatability of effect sizes among species. It was approximately equally attributable to differences (occurring for unknown reasons) in effect sizes among and within

Development of a risk-adjustment model for antimicrobial utilization data in 21 public hospitals in Queensland, Australia (2006-11).

PubMed

Rajmokan, M; Morton, A; Marquess, J; Playford, E G; Jones, M

2013-10-01

Making valid comparisons of antimicrobial utilization between hospitals requires risk adjustment for each hospital's case mix. Data on individual patients may be unavailable or difficult to process. Therefore, risk adjustment for antimicrobial usage frequently needs to be based on a hospital's services. This study evaluated such a strategy for hospital antimicrobial utilization. Data were obtained on five broad subclasses of antibiotics [carbapenems, β-lactam/β-lactamase inhibitor combinations (BLBLIs), fluoroquinolones, glycopeptides and third-generation cephalosporins] from the Queensland pharmacy database (MedTrx) for 21 acute public hospitals (2006-11). Eleven clinical services and a variable for hospitals from the tropical region were employed for risk adjustment. Multivariable regression models were used to identify risk and protective services for these antibiotics. Funnel plots were used to display hospitals' antimicrobial utilization. Total inpatient antibiotic utilization for these antibiotics increased from 130.6 defined daily doses (DDDs)/1000 patient-days in 2006 to 155.8 DDDs/1000 patient-days in 2011 (P < 0.0001). Except for third-generation cephalosporins, the average utilization rate was higher for intensive care, renal/nephrology, cardiac, burns/plastic surgery, neurosurgery, transplant and acute spinal services than for the respective reference group (no service). In addition, oncology, high-activity infectious disease and coronary care services were associated with higher utilization of carbapenems, BLBLIs and glycopeptides. Our model predicted antimicrobial utilization rates by hospital services. The funnel plots displayed hospital utilization data after adjustment for variation among the hospitals. However, the methodology needs to be validated in other populations, ideally using a larger group of hospitals.

Blood Urea Nitrogen/Creatinine Ratio Identifies a High-Risk but Potentially Reversible Form of Renal Dysfunction in Patients With Decompensated Heart Failure

PubMed Central

Brisco, Meredith A.; Coca, Steven G.; Chen, Jennifer; Owens, Anjali Tiku; McCauley, Brian D.; Kimmel, Stephen E.; Testani, Jeffrey M.

2014-01-01

Background Identifying reversible renal dysfunction (RD) in the setting of heart failure is challenging. The goal of this study was to evaluate whether elevated admission blood urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio (BUN/Cr) could identify decompensated heart failure patients likely to experience improvement in renal function (IRF) with treatment. Methods and Results Consecutive hospitalizations with a discharge diagnosis of heart failure were reviewed. IRF was defined as ≥20% increase and worsening renal function as ≥20% decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate. IRF occurred in 31% of the 896 patients meeting eligibility criteria. Higher admission BUN/Cr was associated with inhospital IRF (odds ratio, 1.5 per 10 increase; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3–1.8; P<0.001), an association persisting after adjustment for baseline characteristics (odds ratio, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1–1.8; P=0.004). However, higher admission BUN/Cr was also associated with post-discharge worsening renal function (odds ratio, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1–1.8; P=0.011). Notably, in patients with an elevated admission BUN/Cr, the risk of death associated with RD (estimated glomerular filtration rate <45) was substantial (hazard ratio, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.6–3.1; P<0.001). However, in patients with a normal admission BUN/Cr, RD was not associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.67–2.0; P=0.59; p interaction=0.03). Conclusions An elevated admission BUN/Cr identifies decompensated patients with heart failure likely to experience IRF with treatment, providing proof of concept that reversible RD may be a discernible entity. However, this improvement seems to be largely transient, and RD, in the setting of an elevated BUN/Cr, remains strongly associated with death. Further research is warranted to develop strategies for the optimal detection and treatment of these high-risk patients. PMID:23325460

Functional form and risk adjustment of hospital costs: Bayesian analysis of a Box-Cox random coefficients model.

PubMed

Hollenbeak, Christopher S

2005-10-15

While risk-adjusted outcomes are often used to compare the performance of hospitals and physicians, the most appropriate functional form for the risk adjustment process is not always obvious for continuous outcomes such as costs. Semi-log models are used most often to correct skewness in cost data, but there has been limited research to determine whether the log transformation is sufficient or whether another transformation is more appropriate. This study explores the most appropriate functional form for risk-adjusting the cost of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. Data included patients undergoing CABG surgery at four hospitals in the midwest and were fit to a Box-Cox model with random coefficients (BCRC) using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Marginal likelihoods and Bayes factors were computed to perform model comparison of alternative model specifications. Rankings of hospital performance were created from the simulation output and the rankings produced by Bayesian estimates were compared to rankings produced by standard models fit using classical methods. Results suggest that, for these data, the most appropriate functional form is not logarithmic, but corresponds to a Box-Cox transformation of -1. Furthermore, Bayes factors overwhelmingly rejected the natural log transformation. However, the hospital ranking induced by the BCRC model was not different from the ranking produced by maximum likelihood estimates of either the linear or semi-log model. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein ratio identifies children who may be at risk of developing cardiometabolic disease.

PubMed

Bailey, Daniel P; Savory, Louise A; Denton, Sarah J; Davies, Ben R; Kerr, Catherine J

2014-08-01

It is important to develop simple, reliable methods to identify high-risk individuals who may benefit from intervention. This study investigated the association between the triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL) ratio and cardiometabolic risk, cardiorespiratory fitness and physical activity in children. Anthropometric, biochemical parameters, cardiorespiratory fitness and accelerometry determined physical activity were assessed in 155 children (80 girls) from 10 to 14 years of age from Bedfordshire, UK. Participants were grouped into high and low TG/HDL ratio groups, according to published thresholds. MANCOVA and logistic regression were used in the analysis. Cardiometabolic risk factor levels were significantly higher in participants with a high TG/HDL ratio (p < 0.05). The odds of having high waist circumference (OR = 13.99; 95% CI 2.93, 69.25), elevated systolic blood pressure (5.27; 1.39, 20.01), high non-HDL cholesterol (19.47; 4.42, 85.81) and ≥2 cardiometabolic risk factors (15.32; 3.10, 75.79) were higher in participants with a high TG/HDL ratio. The TG/HDL ratio values were significantly lower in those with high cardiorespiratory fitness (p = 0.01), but there was no association with physical activity. These findings support the use of the TG/HDL ratio to identify children with cardiometabolic risk factors who may be at risk of developing cardiometabolic disease. ©2014 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

One-carbon metabolite ratios as functional B-vitamin markers and in relation to colorectal cancer risk.

PubMed

Gylling, Björn; Myte, Robin; Ulvik, Arve; Ueland, Per M; Midttun, Øivind; Schneede, Jörn; Hallmans, Göran; Häggström, Jenny; Johansson, Ingegerd; Van Guelpen, Bethany; Palmqvist, Richard

2018-05-22

One-carbon metabolism biomarkers are easily measured in plasma, but analyzing them one at a time in relation to disease does not take into account the interdependence of the many factors involved. The relative dynamics of major one-carbon metabolism branches can be assessed by relating the functional B-vitamin marker total homocysteine (tHcy) to transsulfuration (total cysteine) and methylation (creatinine) outputs. We validated the ratios of tHcy to total cysteine (Hcy:Cys), tHcy to creatinine (Hcy:Cre), and tHcy to cysteine to creatinine (Hcy:Cys:Cre) as functional markers of B-vitamin status. We also calculated the associations of these ratios to colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. Furthermore, the relative contribution of potential confounders to the variance of the ratio-based B-vitamin markers was calculated by linear regression in a nested case-control study of 613 CRC cases and 1190 matched controls. Total B-vitamin status was represented by a summary score comprising Z-standardized plasma concentrations of folate, cobalamin, betaine, pyridoxal 5'-phosphate, and riboflavin. Associations with CRC risk were estimated using conditional logistic regression. We found that the ratio-based B-vitamin markers all outperformed tHcy as markers of total B-vitamin status, in both CRC cases and controls. Additionally, associations with CRC risk were similar for the ratio-based B-vitamin markers and total B-vitamin status (approximately 25% lower risk for high versus low B-vitamin status). In conclusion, ratio-based B-vitamin markers were good predictors of total B-vitamin status and displayed similar associations as total B-vitamin status with CRC risk. Since tHcy and creatinine are routinely clinically analyzed, Hcy:Cre could be easily implemented in clinical practice. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 UICC.

Cardiorespiratory fitness and future risk of pneumonia: a long-term prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Kunutsor, Setor K; Laukkanen, Tanjaniina; Laukkanen, Jari A

2017-09-01

We aimed to assess the prospective association of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) with the risk of pneumonia. Cardiorespiratory fitness, as measured by maximal oxygen uptake, was assessed using a respiratory gas exchange analyzer in 2244 middle-aged men in the Kuopio Ischemic Heart Disease cohort. We corrected for within-person variability in CRF levels using data from repeat measurements taken several years apart. During a median follow-up of 25.8 years, 369 men received a hospital diagnosis of pneumonia. The age-adjusted regression dilution ratio of CRF was 0.58 (95% confidence interval: 0.53-0.63). Cardiorespiratory fitness was linearly associated with pneumonia risk. The hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for pneumonia per 1 standard deviation increase in CRF in analysis adjusted for several risk factors for pneumonia was 0.77 (0.68-0.87). The association remained consistent on additional adjustment for total energy intake, socioeconomic status, physical activity, and C-reactive protein 0.82 (0.72-0.94). The corresponding adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) were 0.58 (0.41-0.80) and 0.67 (0.48-0.95) respectively, when comparing the extreme quartiles of CRF levels. Our findings indicate a graded inverse and independent association between CRF and the future risk of pneumonia in a general male population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Parental intermittent claudication as risk factor for claudication in adults.

PubMed

Prushik, Scott G; Farber, Alik; Gona, Philimon; Shrader, Peter; Pencina, Michael J; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Murabito, Joanne M

2012-03-01

Little is known about the familial aggregation of intermittent claudication (IC). Our objective was to examine whether parental IC increased the risk of IC in adult offspring, independent of the established cardiovascular risk factors. We evaluated the Offspring Cohort Participants of the Framingham Heart Study who were ≥30 years old, cardiovascular disease free, and had both parents enrolled in the Framingham Heart Study (n = 2,970 unique participants, 53% women). Pooled proportional hazards regression analysis was used to examine whether the 12-year risk of incident IC in offspring participants was associated with parental IC, adjusting for age, gender, diabetes, smoking, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and antihypertensive and lipid treatment. Of the 909 person-examinations in the parental IC history group and 5,397 person-examinations in the no-parental IC history group, there were 101 incident IC events (29 with parental IC history and 72 without a parental IC history) during follow-up. The age- and gender-adjusted 12-year cumulative incidence rate per 1,000 person-years was 5.08 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.74 to 7.33) and 2.34 (95% CI 1.46 to 3.19) in participants with and without a parental IC history. A parental history of IC significantly increased the risk of incident IC in the offspring (multivariable adjusted hazard ratio 1.81, 95% CI 1.14 to 2.88). The hazard ratio was unchanged, with an adjustment for the occurrence of cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio 1.83, 95% CI 1.15 to 2.91). In conclusion, IC in parents increases the risk of IC in adult offspring, independent of the established risk factors. These data suggest a genetic component of peripheral artery disease and support future research into genetic causes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adjusted neutropenia is associated with early serious infection in systemic lupus erythematosus.

PubMed

Lee, Sang-Won; Park, Min-Chan; Lee, Soo-Kon; Park, Yong-Beom

2013-05-01

The susceptibility to infection increases in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients with neutropenia, but the link between infection risk and the cutoff neutrophil count still remains controversial. In this study, we investigated a valuable parameter associated with early serious infection in SLE patients during the first follow-up year. We reviewed the medical records of 160 patients with SLE. The initial levels were defined as the mean of the results of the first two consecutive tests. The adjusted levels were defined as the results of the accumulated area under the curve divided by interval follow-up days. Patients were divided into two groups according to early serious infection and initial and adjusted neutropenia and were then compared. Immunosuppressive-naïve SLE patients with early serious infection more frequently had initial, latest, and adjusted leukopenia and neutropenia (<2,500/mm(3)) and hypocomplementemia than those without. Adjusted neutropenia was the only independent predictive value for early serious infection [odds ratio (OR 11.366)]. Initial neutropenia was the independent predictive value for adjusted neutropenia (OR 6.504). We suggest that adjusted neutropenia is useful for predicting early serious infection in SLE patients during the first follow-up year.

Diesel exhaust exposure and bladder cancer risk.

PubMed

Iyer, V; Harris, R E; Wynder, E L

1990-03-01

A total of 136 cases of men with urinary bladder cancer and 272 matched hospital controls were examined for potential exposure to diesel exhaust. A lifetime occupational history was obtained for all subjects in the study and assessment of exposure to diesel exhaust was based on the job titles of the subject and self-reported exposure. The risk was assessed by odds ratios, with adjustment for confounding variables, in particular cigarette smoking. There was no evidence of elevated risk in occupations with possible or probable exposure (the ORs adjusted for smoking were 1.1. and 0.9 respectively). Truck driving alone was also not associated with elevated risk (adjusted OR = 0.5). There was a weak positive crude association with any exposure, including self-reports (OR = 1.4); however after adjustment for smoking, the estimate did not retain statistical significance (OR = 1.2, 95% CI = 0.8-2.0). This study provides little to support the hypothesis of an excess of bladder cancer risk from occupational exposure to diesel exhaust.

With power comes responsibility: motorcycle engine power and power-to-weight ratio in relation to accident risk.

PubMed

Mattsson, Markus; Summala, Heikki

2010-02-01

Current European legislation allows the EU member states to restrict the maximum power output of motorcycles to 74 kW even though evidence supporting the limit is scarce and has produced mixed results-perhaps because motorcycle performance has been measured by engine displacement, not engine power, in most of the previous studies. This study investigates the relationship of motorcycle engine power and power-to-weight ratio to risk of fatal and nonfatal crashes in Finland. The fatality rate (number of fatal accidents/number of registered motorbikes) for riders of different ages riding bikes belonging to different power and power-to-weight ratio classes was examined using a comprehensive in-depth database. Data on nonfatal accidents were acquired from a Web questionnaire (N = 2708), which also served as a basis for estimating riders' annual mileage. Mileage data allowed the calculation of accident risk per kilometer ridden for bikes differing in power and power-to-weight ratio. The fatality risk per number of registered motorcycles and per kilometer ridden increases both with power and power-to-weight ratio, independently of rider's age. No relationship between performance and risk of a less severe crash was found. The pre-accident speed of the most powerful bikes was 20 km/h or more over the speed limit in a large proportion of the fatal accidents (odds ratio = 4.8 for > 75 kW motorbikes; odds ratio = 6.2 for > 0.3 kW/kg motorbikes). The risk of being involved in a fatal crash is higher among the riders of powerful motorcycles. However, it is not clear whether the results are related to the riding habits of the riders that choose the most powerful bikes available or whether the high risk is due to the properties of the bikes themselves. Therefore, further research is needed before considering legal limits on motorcycle performance.

Relationship between TG/HDL-C ratio and metabolic syndrome risk factors with chronic kidney disease in healthy adult population.

PubMed

Ho, Chih-I; Chen, Jau-Yuan; Chen, Shou-Yen; Tsai, Yi-Wen; Weng, Yi-Ming; Tsao, Yu-Chung; Li, Wen-Cheng

2015-10-01

The triglycerides-to-high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) ratio has been identified as a biomarker of insulin resistance and a predictor for atherosclerosis. The objectives of this study were to investigate which the TG/HDL-C ratio is useful to detect metabolic syndrome (MS) risk factors and subclinical chronic kidney disease (CKD) in general population without known CKD or renal impairment and to compare predictive accuracy of MS risk factors. This was a cross-sectional study. A total 46,255 subjects aged ≥18 years undergoing health examination during 2010-2011 in Taiwan. The independent associations between TG/HDL-C ratio quartiles, waist circumstance (WC) waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), mean atrial pressure (MAP), and CKD prevalence was analyzed by using logistic regression models. Analyses of the areas under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) were performed to determine the accuracy of MS risk factors in predicting CKD. A dose-response manner was observed for the prevalence of CKD and measurements of MS risk factors, showing increases from the lowest to the highest quartile of the TG/HDL-C ratio. Males and females in the highest TG/HDL-C ratio quartile (>2.76) had a 1.4-fold and 1.74-fold greater risk of CKD than those in the lowest quartile (≤1.04), independent of confounding factors. Mean arterial pressure (MAP) had the highest AUC for predicting CKD among MS risk factors. The TG/HDL-C ratio was an independent risk factor for CKD, but it showed no superiority over MAP in predicting CKD. A TG/HDL-C ratio ≥2.76 may be useful in clinical practice to detect subjects with worsened cardiometabolic profile who need monitoring to prevent CKD. TG/HDL-C ratio is an independent risk factor for CKD in adults aged 18-50 years. MAP was the most powerful predictor over other MS risk factors in predicting CKD. However, longitudinal and comparative studies are required to demonstrate the predictive value of TG/HDL-C on the onset and progression of CKD over

Risk factors of workplace violence at hospitals in Japan.

PubMed

Fujita, Shigeru; Ito, Shinya; Seto, Kanako; Kitazawa, Takefumi; Matsumoto, Kunichika; Hasegawa, Tomonori

2012-02-01

Patients and their relatives exposed to mental stress caused by hospitalization or illness might use violence against healthcare staff and interfere with quality healthcare. The aim of this study was to investigate incidences of workplace violence and the attributes of healthcare staff who are at high risk. A questionnaire-based, anonymous, and self-administered cross-sectional survey. Healthcare staff (n = 11,095) of 19 hospitals in Japan. Incidence rates and adjusted odd ratios of workplace violence were calculated to examine the effect of attributes of healthcare staff to workplace violence by using logistic regression analysis. The response rate for survey completion was 79.1% (8711/11,095). Among the respondents, 36.4% experienced workplace violence by patients or their relatives in the past year; 15.9% experienced physical aggression, 29.8% experienced verbal abuse, and 9.9% experienced sexual harassment. Adjusted odds ratios of physical aggression were significantly high in psychiatric wards, critical care centers/intensive care units (ICU)/cardiac care units (CCU), long-term care wards, for nurses, nursing aides/care workers, and for longer working hours. Adjusted odds ratios of verbal abuse were significantly high in psychiatric wards, long-term care wards, outpatient departments, dialysis departments, and for longer years of work experience, and for longer working hours. Adjusted odds ratios of sexual harassment were significantly high in dialysis departments, for nurses, nursing aides/care workers, technicians, therapists and females. The general ward and direct interaction with patients were common risk factors for each type of workplace violence. The mechanisms and the countermeasures for each type of workplace violence at those high-risk areas should be investigated. Copyright © 2011 Society of Hospital Medicine.

[Adjusting Platelet Counts for Platelet Aggregation Tests].

PubMed

Ling, Li-Qin; Yang, Xin-Chun; Chen, Hao; Liu, Chao-Nan; Chen, Si; Jiang, Hong; Jin, Ya-Xiong; Zhou, Jing

2018-03-01

To explore a better method to adjust platelet counts for light transmission aggregometry (LTA). Blood samples from 36 healthy participants aged from 18 to 50 yr. were collected.Platelet-rich plasma (PRP) was diluted using platelet-poor plasma (PPP) and physiological saline (PS),respectively,in a ratio of 1.5,2,2.5 and 3 times. Platelet aggregation was induced by adenosine diphosphate (ADP),arachidonic acid (ARA),collagen (COL), epinephrine (EPI),or ristocetin (RIS). The maximal aggregation rates (MAs) of different approaches were compared. We also compared the MAs induced by RIS between PRP-obtained-PPP and whole blood-obtained-PPP (2 100× g, 5 min). Compared with the original PRP,the MAs induced by ADP,ARA,and EPI decreased in PPP-adjusted PRP (significant at 2-3 times dilution ratio, P <0.05),but not in PS-adjusted PRP ( P >0.05). The MA induced by RIS decreased in PS-adjusted PRP (significant at all dilution ratios, P <0.05),but not in PPP-adjusted PRP ( P >0.05). No changes in the MA induced by COL were found in PS-adjusted PRP and PPP-adjusted PRP ( P >0.05). Whole blood-obtained-PPP (2 100× g, 5 min) had the same MA induced by ristocetin compared with PRP-obtained-PPP ( P >0.05). PS is recommended for adjusting platelets counts for platelet aggregation induced by ADP,ARA,COL and EPI. Whole blood-obtained-PPP (2 100 × g, 5 min) is recommended for RIS-induced aggregation as a matter of convenience. Copyright© by Editorial Board of Journal of Sichuan University (Medical Science Edition).

Non-traditional Serum Lipid Variables and Recurrent Stroke Risk

PubMed Central

Park, Jong-Ho; Lee, Juneyoung; Ovbiagele, Bruce

2014-01-01

Background and Purpose Expert consensus guidelines recommend low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) as the primary serum lipid target for recurrent stroke risk reduction. However, mounting evidence suggests that other lipid parameters might be additional therapeutic targets or at least also predict cardiovascular risk. Little is known about the effects of non-traditional lipid variables on recurrent stroke risk. Methods We analyzed the Vitamin Intervention for Stroke Prevention study database comprising 3680 recent (<120 days) ischemic stroke patients followed up for 2 years. Independent associations of baseline serum lipid variables with recurrent ischemic stroke (primary outcome) and the composite endpoint of ischemic stroke/coronary heart disease (CHD)/vascular death (secondary outcomes) were assessed. Results Of all variables evaluated, only triglycerides (TG)/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio was consistently and independently related to both outcomes: compared with the lowest quintile, the highest TG/HDL-C ratio quintile was associated with stroke (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.05−2.32) and stroke/CHD/vascular death (1.39; 1.05−1.83), including adjustment for lipid modifier use. Compared with the lowest quintile, the highest total cholesterol/HDL-C ratio quintile was associated with stroke/CHD/vascular death (1.45; 1.03−2.03). LDL-C/HDL-C ratio, non-HDL-C, elevated TG alone, and low HDL-C alone were not independently linked to either outcome. Conclusions Of various non-traditional lipid variables, elevated baseline TG/HDL-C and TC/HDL-C ratios predict future vascular risk after a stroke, but only elevated TG/HDL-C ratio is related to risk of recurrent stroke. Future studies should assess the role of TG/HDL as a potential therapeutic target for global vascular risk reduction after stroke. PMID:25236873

[Triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol ratio: in adolescents without cardiovascular risk factors].

PubMed

Soutelo, Jimena; Graffigna, Mabel; Honfi, Margarita; Migliano, Marta; Aranguren, Marcela; Proietti, Adrian; Musso, Carla; Berg, Gabriela

2012-06-01

Triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol ratio (TG/HDL) is an easy resource determination and it has good correlation with the HOMA index in adults. Due to physiological insulin resistance (IR) in adolescence it is necessary to find markers of IR independent of age, sex and pubertal stage. The objective was to identify reference values of TG/HDL ratio in a population of adolescents without cardiovascular risk factors. We evaluated 943 adolescents, 429 females and 514 males between 11 and 14. Anthropometric measures were determined and body mass index was calculated (BMI). Blood was extracted after 12 hours of fasting to determine glucose, triglycerides, HDL. The metabolic syndrome (MS) was diagnosed according to criteria of NCEP/ATP III modified by Cook. We excluded adolescents with MS or any component of it. We evaluated 562 adolescents (289 women and 273 men) with a weight of 48.91 +/- 6.51kg, BMI: 18.95 +/- 1.78, systolic blood pressure of 108.12 +/- 13.60 mmHg, diastolic blood pressure: 63.82 +/- 9.43 and waist circumference: 65.09 +/- 4.54 cm. TG/HDL ratio was 1.25 +/- 0.43, with a 95 percentile of 2.05. In adults, TG/HDL ratio greater than 3 is a marker of insulin resistance. We believe that a higher value to 2.05 might be a good index of insulin resistance in adolescence. TG/HDL ratio has the advantage of being methodologically simpler, more economical and independent of pubertal stage.

Risk of Psoriasis Following Terbinafine or Itraconazole Treatment for Onychomycosis: A Population-Based Case-Control Comparative Study.

PubMed

Chiu, Hsien-Yi; Chang, Wei-Lun; Tsai, Tsen-Fang; Tsai, Yi-Wen; Shiu, Ming-Neng

2018-03-01

Several case studies have reported an association between antifungal drug use and psoriasis risk. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between terbinafine/itraconazole exposure and psoriasis incidence. Among patients with onychomycosis in the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database, 3831 incident psoriasis cases were identified during 2004-2010 and compared with 3831 age- and sex-matched controls with the same look-back period. Multivariate conditional logistic regression was used for the analysis. The psoriasis cases were significantly more likely than matched controls to have used terbinafine or itraconazole (59.85 vs. 42.70%, respectively; p < 0.0001). After adjusting for potential confounders and cumulative duration of antifungal drug prescription, terbinafine/itraconazole use was associated with an increased psoriasis risk (adjusted odds ratio 1.33, 95% confidence interval 1.15-1.54). The association was stronger for more recent drug exposure (adjusted odds ratio 2.96, 95% confidence interval 2.25-3.90 for ≤ 90 days before the sampling date; adjusted odds ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 0.89-1.22 for > 360 days). In a comparison of patients receiving terbinafine or itraconazole only, psoriasis risk was higher for itraconazole (adjusted odds ratio 1.21, 95% confidence interval 1.05-1.40). This large population-based case-control analysis showed that exposure to terbinafine or itraconazole is associated with an increased risk of incident psoriasis. The finding of an increased psoriasis risk for antifungal drug users, particularly for itraconazole, deserves attention in clinical practice although further prospective studies are necessary to confirm our findings and clarify the biological mechanisms that underlie these associations.

The acute:chonic workload ratio in relation to injury risk in professional soccer.

PubMed

Malone, Shane; Owen, Adam; Newton, Matt; Mendes, Bruno; Collins, Kieran D; Gabbett, Tim J

2017-06-01

To examine the association between combined sRPE measures and injury risk in elite professional soccer. Observational cohort study. Forty-eight professional soccer players (mean±SD age of 25.3±3.1 yr) from two elite European teams were involved within a one season study. Players completed a test of intermittent-aerobic capacity (Yo-YoIR1) to assess player's injury risk in relation to intermittent aerobic capacity. Weekly workload measures and time loss injuries were recorded during the entire period. Rolling weekly sums and week-to-week changes in workload were measured, allowing for the calculation of the acute:chronic workload ratio, which was calculated by dividing the acute (1-weekly) and chronic (4-weekly) workloads. All derived workload measures were modelled against injury data using logistic regression. Odds ratios (OR) were reported against a reference group. Players who exerted pre-season 1-weekly loads of ≥1500 to ≤2120AU were at significantly higher risk of injury compared to the reference group of ≤1500AU (OR=1.95, p=0.006). Players with increased intermittent-aerobic capacity were better able to tolerate increased 1-weekly absolute changes in training load than players with lower fitness levels (OR=4.52, p=0.011). Players who exerted in-season acute:chronic workload ratios of >1.00 to <1.25 (OR=0.68, p=0.006) were at significantly lower risk of injury compared to the reference group (≤0.85). These findings demonstrate that an acute:chronic workload of between 1.00 and 1.25 is protective for professional soccer players. A higher intermittent-aerobic capacity appears to offer greater injury protection when players are exposed to rapid changes in workload in elite soccer players. Moderate workloads, coupled with moderate-low to moderate-high acute:chronic workload ratios, appear to be protective for professional soccer players. Copyright © 2016 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Impact of Ecological Risk and Perceived Discrimination on the Psychological Adjustment of African American and European American Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prelow, Hazel M.; Danoff-Burg, Sharon; Swenson, Rebecca R.; Pulgiano, Dana

2004-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to examine the role of cumulative ecological risk (i.e., neighborhood disadvantage and ecologically salient stressful events) and perceived discrimination on the psychological adjustment of urban African American and European American youth. Findings indicated that both cumulative ecological risk and perceived…

Association Between Cortisol to DHEA-s Ratio and Sickness Absence in Japanese Male Workers.

PubMed

Hirokawa, Kumi; Fujii, Yasuhito; Taniguchi, Toshiyo; Takaki, Jiro; Tsutsumi, Akizumi

2018-06-01

This study aimed to investigate the association between serum levels of cortisol and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEA-s) and sickness absence over 2 years in Japanese male workers. A baseline survey including questions about health behavior, along with blood sampling for cortisol and DHEA-s, was conducted in 2009. In total, 429 men (mean ± SD age, 52.9 ± 8.6 years) from whom blood samples were collected at baseline were followed until December 31, 2011. The hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for sickness absence were calculated using a Cox proportional hazard model, adjusted for potential confounders. Among 35 workers who took sickness absences, 31 had physical illness. A high cortisol to DHEA-s ratio increased the risk of sickness absence (crude HR = 2.68, 95% CI 1.12-6.41; adjusted HR = 3.33, 95% CI 1.35-8.20). The cortisol to DHEA-s ratio was linearly associated with an increased risk of sickness absence (p for trend < .050). Single effects of cortisol and DHEA-s levels were not associated with sickness absences. This trend did not change when limited to absences resulting from physical illness. Hormonal conditions related to the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenocortical axis and adrenal function should be considered when predicting sickness absence. The cortisol to DHEA-s ratio may be more informative than single effects of cortisol and DHEA-s levels.

The Role Behavioral Adjustment Plays in Placing Middle School Students "At Risk" of Academic Failure.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flynn, Timothy M.

The role of behavioral adjustment in placing middle school students at risk academically is examined using 23 middle school teachers' and 378 parents' ratings of 389 children (53 percent blacks and 47 percent whites) on Conner's Parent Rating Scale and Conner's Teacher Rating Scale. The average rating on the scales for both sets of ratings is…

Triglycerides/High density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio as a cardiometabolic risk marker in children and adolescents from Mérida city, Venezuela.

PubMed

Aguirre, Miguel; Briceño, Yajaira; Gómez-Pérez, Roald; Zerpa, Yajaira; Camacho, Nolis; Paoli, Mariela

2018-02-01

To determine the behavior of the triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol ratio (TG/HDL) as a cardiometabolic risk marker in children and adolescents from Mérida, Venezuela. A total of 1292 children and adolescents aged 7-18 years who attended educational institutions in the Libertador Municipality were enrolled into this study. Anthropometric measurements and blood pressure values were recorded. Fasting blood glucose, insulin and lipid levels were measured. The TG/HDL ratio, HOMA-IR, and QUICKI indexes were calculated. Subjects were categorized as with and without cardiometabolic risk based on the presence or absence of 2or more risk factors. Cut-off points for the TG/HDL ratio were determined by constructing ROC curves. Significantly higher mean TG/HDL ratios were found in pubertal (2.2 ± 1.7) as compared to prepubertal subjects (1.8 ± 1.5; P=.001), with no sex differences. Two or more risk factors were found in 14.7% (n=192) of the participants, in whom TG/HDL ratios were significantly higher as compared to those with no risk (3.5±2.9 versus 1.6±0.8 in prepubertal and 4.1 ± 3.5 versus 1.8 ± 0.9 in pubertal subjects; P=.0001). According to cardiometabolic risk, cut-off points for the TG/HDL ratio of 1.8 and 2.5 were found for prepubertal and pubertal children respectively. These cut-off points showed risks (odds ratio) higher than 2.5 for conditions such as metabolic syndrome, elevated non-HDL-C, abdominal obesity, and elevated HOMA-IR. In this sample of children and adolescents, an elevated TG/HDLc ratio was found to be a good marker for predicting cardiometabolic risk. Copyright © 2017 SEEN y SED. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Patent foramen ovale and the risk of ischemic stroke in a multiethnic population.

PubMed

Di Tullio, Marco R; Sacco, Ralph L; Sciacca, Robert R; Jin, Zhezhen; Homma, Shunichi

2007-02-20

We sought to assess the risk of ischemic stroke from a patent foramen ovale (PFO) in the multiethnic prospective cohort of northern Manhattan. Patent foramen ovale has been associated with increased risk of ischemic stroke, mainly in case-control studies. The actual PFO-related stroke risk in the general population is unclear. The presence of PFO was assessed at baseline by using transthoracic 2-dimensional echocardiography with contrast injection in 1,100 stroke-free subjects older than 39 years of age (mean age 68.7 +/- 10.0 years) from the Northern Manhattan Study (NOMAS). The presence of atrial septal aneurysm (ASA) also was recorded. Subjects were followed annually for outcomes. We assessed PFO/ASA-related stroke risk after adjusting for established stroke risk factors. We detected PFO in 164 subjects (14.9%); ASA was present in 27 subjects (2.5%) and associated with PFO in 19 subjects. During a mean follow-up of 79.7 +/- 28.0 months, an ischemic stroke occurred in 68 subjects (6.2%). After adjustment for demographics and risk factors, PFO was not found to be significantly associated with stroke (hazard ratio 1.64, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.87 to 3.09). The same trend was observed in all age, gender, and race-ethnic subgroups. The coexistence of PFO and ASA did not increase the stroke risk (adjusted hazard ratio 1.25, 95% CI 0.17 to 9.24). Isolated ASA was associated with elevated stroke incidence (2 of 8, or 25%; adjusted hazard ratio 3.66, 95% CI 0.88 to 15.30). Patent foramen ovale, alone or together with ASA, was not associated with an increased stroke risk in this multiethnic cohort. The independent role of ASA needs further assessment in appositely designed and powered studies.

Low socioeconomic status is a risk factor for preeclampsia: the Generation R Study.

PubMed

Silva, Lindsay M; Coolman, Marianne; Steegers, Eric Ap; Jaddoe, Vincent Wv; Moll, Henriëtte A; Hofman, Albert; Mackenbach, Johan P; Raat, Hein

2008-06-01

To examine whether maternal socioeconomic status, as indicated by maternal educational level, is associated with preeclampsia, and if so, to what extent known risk factors for preeclampsia mediate the effect of educational level. In the Generation R Study, a population-based cohort study, we examined data of 3547 pregnant women. Odds ratios of preeclampsia for low, mid-low and mid-high educational level compared with high educational level were calculated after adjustment for confounders and additional adjustment for a selection of potential mediators (family history, material factors, psychosocial factors, substance use, working conditions, preexisting medical conditions, maternal anthropometrics and blood pressure at enrollment) that individually caused more than 10% change in the odds ratio for low education. Adjusted for the confounding effects of age, gravidity and multiple pregnancy, women with low educational level were more likely to develop preeclampsia (odds ratio 5.12; 95% confidence interval: 2.20, 11.93) than women with high educational level. After additional adjustment for financial difficulties, smoking in pregnancy, working conditions, body mass index and blood pressure at enrollment, the odds ratio was 4.91 (95% confidence interval: 1.93, 12.52). Low maternal socioeconomic status is a strong risk factor for preeclampsia. Only a small part of this association can be explained by the mediating effects of established risk factors for preeclampsia. Further research is needed to disentangle the pathway from low socioeconomic status to preeclampsia.

Use of the plasma triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio to identify cardiovascular disease in hypertensive subjects.

PubMed

Salazar, Martin R; Carbajal, Horacio A; Espeche, Walter G; Aizpurúa, Marcelo; Leiva Sisnieguez, Carlos E; Leiva Sisnieguez, Betty C; March, Carlos E; Stavile, Rodolfo N; Balbín, Eduardo; Reaven, Gerald M

2014-10-01

This analysis evaluated the hypothesis that the plasma triglyceride (TG)/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) concentration ratio can help identify patients with essential hypertension who are insulin-resistant, with the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk profile associated with that defect. Data from a community-based study developed between 2003 and 2012 were used to compare CVD risk factors and outcome. Plasma TG/HDL-C cut-points of 2.5 (women) and 3.5 (men) subdivided normotensive (n = 574) and hypertensive (n = 373) subjects into "high" and "low" risk groups. Metabolic syndrome criteria (MetS) were also used to identify "high" and "low" risk groups. The baseline cardio-metabolic profile was significantly more adverse in 2003 in "high" risk subgroups, irrespective of BP classification or definition of risk (TG/HDL-C ratio vs. MetS criteria). Crude incidence of combined CVD events increased across risk groups, ranging from 1.9 in normotensive-low TG/HDL-C subjects to 19.9 in hypertensive-high TG/HDL-C ratio individuals (P for trends <.001). Adjusted hazard ratios for CVD events also increased with both hypertension and TG/HDL-C. Comparable findings were seen when CVD outcome was predicted by MetS criteria. The TG/HDL-C concentration ratio and the MetS criteria identify to a comparable degree hypertensive subjects who are at greatest cardio-metabolic risk and develop significantly more CVD.

45 CFR 158.330 - Criteria for assessing request for adjustment to the medical loss ratio.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... Potential Adjustment to the MLR for a State's Individual Market § 158.330 Criteria for assessing request for... individual market in a State that has requested an adjustment to the 80 percent MLR: (a) The number of... adjustment to the 80 percent MLR and the resulting impact on competition in the State. In making this...

45 CFR 158.330 - Criteria for assessing request for adjustment to the medical loss ratio.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... Potential Adjustment to the MLR for a State's Individual Market § 158.330 Criteria for assessing request for... individual market in a State that has requested an adjustment to the 80 percent MLR: (a) The number of... adjustment to the 80 percent MLR and the resulting impact on competition in the State. In making this...

45 CFR 158.330 - Criteria for assessing request for adjustment to the medical loss ratio.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... Potential Adjustment to the MLR for a State's Individual Market § 158.330 Criteria for assessing request for... individual market in a State that has requested an adjustment to the 80 percent MLR: (a) The number of... adjustment to the 80 percent MLR and the resulting impact on competition in the State. In making this...

45 CFR 158.330 - Criteria for assessing request for adjustment to the medical loss ratio.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... Potential Adjustment to the MLR for a State's Individual Market § 158.330 Criteria for assessing request for... individual market in a State that has requested an adjustment to the 80 percent MLR: (a) The number of... adjustment to the 80 percent MLR and the resulting impact on competition in the State. In making this...

Surgeon length of service and risk-adjusted outcomes: linked observational analysis of the UK National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit Registry and General Medical Council Register.

PubMed

Hickey, Graeme L; Grant, Stuart W; Freemantle, Nick; Cunningham, David; Munsch, Christopher M; Livesey, Steven A; Roxburgh, James; Buchan, Iain; Bridgewater, Ben

2014-09-01

To explore the relationship between in-hospital mortality following adult cardiac surgery and the time since primary clinical qualification for the responsible consultant cardiac surgeon (a proxy for experience). Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected national registry data over a 10-year period using mixed-effects multiple logistic regression modelling. Surgeon experience was defined as the time between the date of surgery and award of primary clinical qualification. UK National Health Service hospitals performing cardiac surgery between January 2003 and December 2012. All patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafts and/or valve surgery under the care of a consultant cardiac surgeon. All-cause in-hospital mortality. A total of 292,973 operations performed by 273 consultant surgeons (with lengths of service from 11.2 to 42.0 years) were included. Crude mortality increased approximately linearly until 33 years service, before decreasing. After adjusting for case-mix and year of surgery, there remained a statistically significant (p=0.002) association between length of service and in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.013; 95% CI 1.005-1.021 for each year of 'experience'). Consultant cardiac surgeons take on increasingly complex surgery as they gain experience. With this progression, the incidence of adverse outcomes is expected to increase, as is demonstrated in this study. After adjusting for case-mix using the EuroSCORE, we observed an increased risk of mortality in patients operated on by longer serving surgeons. This finding may reflect under-adjustment for risk, unmeasured confounding or a real association. Further research into outcomes over the time course of surgeon's careers is required. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

Use of plasma triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio to identify increased cardio-metabolic risk in young, healthy South Asians.

PubMed

Flowers, Elena; Molina, César; Mathur, Ashish; Reaven, Gerald M

2015-01-01

Prevalence of insulin resistance and associated dyslipidaemia [high triglyceride (TG) and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) concentrations] are increased in South Asian individuals; likely contributing to their increased risk of type-2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. The plasma concentration ratio of TG/HDL-C has been proposed as a simple way to identify apparently healthy individuals at high cardio-metabolic risk. This study was carried out to compare the cardio-metabolic risk profiles of high-risk South Asian individuals identified by an elevated TG/HDL-C ratio versus those with a diagnosis of the metabolic syndrome. Body mass index, waist circumference, blood pressure, and fasting plasma glucose, insulin, TG, and HDL-C concentrations were determined in apparently healthy men (n=498) and women (n=526). The cardio-metabolic risk profile of "high risk" individuals identified by TG/HDL-C ratios in men (≥ 3.5) and women (≥2.5) was compared to those identified by a diagnosis of the metabolic syndrome. More concentrations of all cardio-metabolic risk factors were significantly higher in "high risk" groups, identified by either the TG/HDL-C ratio or a diagnosis of the metabolic syndrome. TG, HDL-C, and insulin concentrations were not significantly different in "high risk" groups identified by either criterion, whereas plasma glucose and blood pressure were higher in those with the metabolic syndrome. Apparently healthy South Asian individuals at high cardio-metabolic risk can be identified using either the TG/HDL-C ratio or the metabolic syndrome criteria. The TG/HDL-C ratio may be used as a simple marker to identify such individuals.

Peritonitis in Rwanda: Epidemiology and risk factors for morbidity and mortality.

PubMed

Ndayizeye, Leonard; Ngarambe, Christian; Smart, Blair; Riviello, Robert; Majyambere, Jean Paul; Rickard, Jennifer

2016-12-01

Few studies discuss causes and outcomes of peritonitis in low-income settings. This study describes epidemiology of patients with peritonitis at a Rwandan referral hospital. Identification of risk factors associated with mortality and unplanned reoperation could improve management of peritonitis. Data were collected on demographics, clinical presentation, operative findings, and outcomes for all patients with peritonitis. Multivariate regression analysis identified factors associated with in-hospital mortality and unplanned reoperation. A total of 280 patients presented with peritonitis over a 6-month period. Causes of peritonitis were complications of intestinal obstruction (39%) and appendicitis (17%). Thirty-six (13%) patients required unplanned reoperation, and in-hospital mortality was 17%. Factors associated with increased odds of in-hospital mortality were unplanned reoperation (adjusted odds ratio 34.12), vasopressor use (adjusted odds ratio 24.91), abnormal white blood cell count (adjusted odds ratio 12.6), intensive care unit admission (adjusted odds ratio 9.06), and American Society of Anesthesiologist score ≥3 (adjusted odds ratio 7.80). Factors associated with increased odds of unplanned reoperation included typhoid perforation (adjusted odds ratio 5.92) and hypoxia on admission (adjusted odds ratio 3.82). Peritonitis in Rwanda presents with high morbidity and mortality. Minimizing delays in care is important, as many patients with intestinal obstruction present with features of peritonitis. A better understanding of patient care and management prior to arrival at the referral hospital is needed to identify areas for improvement at the health center and district hospital. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adjusting for reverse causation to estimate the effect of obesity on mortality after incident heart failure in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

PubMed

Shakiba, Maryam; Soori, Hamid; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Nazari, Seyed Saeed Hashemi; Salimi, Yahya

2016-01-01

The lower mortality rate of obese patients with heart failure (HF) has been partly attributed to reverse causation bias due to weight loss caused by disease. Using data about weight both before and after HF, this study aimed to adjust for reverse causation and examine the association of obesity both before and after HF with mortality. Using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, 308 patients with data available from before and after the incidence of HF were included. Pre-morbid and post-morbid obesity were defined based on body mass index measurements at least three months before and after incident HF. The associations of pre-morbid and post-morbid obesity and weight change with survival after HF were evaluated using a Cox proportional hazard model. Pre-morbid obesity was associated with higher mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.61; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04 to 2.49) but post-morbid obesity was associated with increased survival (HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.37 to 0.88). Adjusting for weight change due to disease as a confounder of the obesity-mortality relationship resulted in the absence of any significant associations between post-morbid obesity and mortality. This study demonstrated that controlling for reverse causality by adjusting for the confounder of weight change may remove or reverse the protective effect of obesity on mortality among patients with incident HF.

The triglyceride-to-high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio in overweight Korean children and adolescents.

PubMed

Yoo, Dong-Yoon; Kang, Yu Sun; Kwon, Eun Byul; Yoo, Eun-Gyong

2017-09-01

The triglyceride-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) ratio has recently been reported as a biomarker of cardiometabolic risk in obese children and adolescents. The purpose of this study is to describe the TG/HDL-C ratio and related factors in overweight and normal weight Korean children and to evaluate whether the high TG/HDL-C ratio is associated with insulin resistance in overweight children and adolescents. Data from 255 overweight (aged 8.7±2.0 years) and 514 normal weight (aged 8.9±1.8 years) children and adolescents were evaluated. Glucose, insulin, total cholesterol (TC), HDL-C and TG levels were measured after overnight fasting, and the TG/HDL-C ratio, non-HDL-C and the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) were calculated. The TG/HDL-C ratio was higher in overweight group compared to normal weight group (P<0.001). Among overweight children and adolescents, alanine aminotransferase (P=0.018), non-HDL-C (P<0.001), and HOMA-IR (P=0.004) were different between the TG/HDL-C ratio tertile groups. The prevalence of elevated HOMA-IR was increased with increasing TG/HDL-C ratio tertiles (P for trend=0.003). On regression analysis adjusted for age and sex, the BMI (β=0.402, P=0.001) and TG/HDL-C ratio (β=0.251, P=0.014) were independently associated with HOMA-IR (adjusted R2=0.324). The TG/HDL-C ratio of 2.0 or more showed higher sensitivity (55.6%) and specificity (72.9%), when compared to TC (≥200 mg/dL), non-HDL-C (≥145 mg/dL), and LDL-C (≥130 mg/dL) for identifying overweight children with elevated HOMA-IR. The TG/HDL-C ratio is independently associated with insulin resistance in overweight children and adolescents, and it can be useful in identifying those at higher cardiometabolic risk.

The triglyceride-to-high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio in overweight Korean children and adolescents

PubMed Central

Yoo, Dong-Yoon; Kang, Yu Sun; Kwon, Eun Byul

2017-01-01

Purpose The triglyceride-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) ratio has recently been reported as a biomarker of cardiometabolic risk in obese children and adolescents. The purpose of this study is to describe the TG/HDL-C ratio and related factors in overweight and normal weight Korean children and to evaluate whether the high TG/HDL-C ratio is associated with insulin resistance in overweight children and adolescents. Methods Data from 255 overweight (aged 8.7±2.0 years) and 514 normal weight (aged 8.9±1.8 years) children and adolescents were evaluated. Glucose, insulin, total cholesterol (TC), HDL-C and TG levels were measured after overnight fasting, and the TG/HDL-C ratio, non–HDL-C and the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) were calculated. Results The TG/HDL-C ratio was higher in overweight group compared to normal weight group (P<0.001). Among overweight children and adolescents, alanine aminotransferase (P=0.018), non–HDL-C (P<0.001), and HOMA-IR (P=0.004) were different between the TG/HDL-C ratio tertile groups. The prevalence of elevated HOMA-IR was increased with increasing TG/HDL-C ratio tertiles (P for trend=0.003). On regression analysis adjusted for age and sex, the BMI (β=0.402, P=0.001) and TG/HDL-C ratio (β=0.251, P=0.014) were independently associated with HOMA-IR (adjusted R2=0.324). The TG/HDL-C ratio of 2.0 or more showed higher sensitivity (55.6%) and specificity (72.9%), when compared to TC (≥200 mg/dL), non–HDL-C (≥145 mg/dL), and LDL-C (≥130 mg/dL) for identifying overweight children with elevated HOMA-IR. Conclusions The TG/HDL-C ratio is independently associated with insulin resistance in overweight children and adolescents, and it can be useful in identifying those at higher cardiometabolic risk. PMID:29025201

Urine protein/creatinine ratio as a mortality risk predictor in non-diabetics with normal renal function.

PubMed

Fulks, Michael; Stout, Robert L; Dolan, Vera F

2012-01-01

Determine the relative mortality in apparently healthy adults with various levels of urinary protein measured by urine protein/creatinine (p/c) ratio. By use of the Social Security Death Master File, mortality in 2010 was determined for 7.5 million life insurance applicants age 20 to 89 providing urine samples between 1992 and 2006. Relative mortality by Cox regression for bands of p/c ratios was determined using age and sex as covariates and with an age split at 60 after excluding those with hematuria (> 3 red cells/hpf), diabetes, evidence of blood sugar elevation, or eGFR < 60 mL/min. After the exclusions noted above, relative mortality increased to 160% beginning at a p/c ratio of 0.11 mg/mg and rose steadily above that value regardless of sex and age. Most of this risk was not explained by a history of hypertension or elevated systolic blood pressure. Albumin testing identified roughly a third of urine samples with elevated p/c ratios as not containing albumin; those cases appeared to be associated with much lower risk as long as the p/c ratio was < or = 1.0 mg/mg. Low levels of proteinuria identified as urine protein/creatinine ratios of 0.11 mg/mg or higher (much lower than the usual lower cut-off value of 0.21) are associated with substantial excess mortality risk, even after excluding diabetics and those with reduced kidney function or hematuria.

Relevance of the c-statistic when evaluating risk-adjustment models in surgery.

PubMed

Merkow, Ryan P; Hall, Bruce L; Cohen, Mark E; Dimick, Justin B; Wang, Edward; Chow, Warren B; Ko, Clifford Y; Bilimoria, Karl Y

2012-05-01

The measurement of hospital quality based on outcomes requires risk adjustment. The c-statistic is a popular tool used to judge model performance, but can be limited, particularly when evaluating specific operations in focused populations. Our objectives were to examine the interpretation and relevance of the c-statistic when used in models with increasingly similar case mix and to consider an alternative perspective on model calibration based on a graphical depiction of model fit. From the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (2008-2009), patients were identified who underwent a general surgery procedure, and procedure groups were increasingly restricted: colorectal-all, colorectal-elective cases only, and colorectal-elective cancer cases only. Mortality and serious morbidity outcomes were evaluated using logistic regression-based risk adjustment, and model c-statistics and calibration curves were used to compare model performance. During the study period, 323,427 general, 47,605 colorectal-all, 39,860 colorectal-elective, and 21,680 colorectal cancer patients were studied. Mortality ranged from 1.0% in general surgery to 4.1% in the colorectal-all group, and serious morbidity ranged from 3.9% in general surgery to 12.4% in the colorectal-all procedural group. As case mix was restricted, c-statistics progressively declined from the general to the colorectal cancer surgery cohorts for both mortality and serious morbidity (mortality: 0.949 to 0.866; serious morbidity: 0.861 to 0.668). Calibration was evaluated graphically by examining predicted vs observed number of events over risk deciles. For both mortality and serious morbidity, there was no qualitative difference in calibration identified between the procedure groups. In the present study, we demonstrate how the c-statistic can become less informative and, in certain circumstances, can lead to incorrect model-based conclusions, as case mix is restricted and patients become

Neutrophil counts, neutrophil ratio, and new stroke in minor ischemic stroke or TIA.

PubMed

Zhu, Bihong; Pan, Yuesong; Jing, Jing; Meng, Xia; Zhao, Xingquan; Liu, Liping; Wang, David; Johnston, S Claiborne; Li, Hao; Wang, Yilong; Wang, Zhimin; Wang, Yongjun

2018-05-22

Evidence about whether neutrophil counts or neutrophil ratio is associated with new stroke is scant. The aim of this study is to assess the association of neutrophil counts or neutrophil ratio with a new stroke in patients with minor stroke or TIA. We derived data from the Clopidogrel in High-Risk Patients With Acute Nondisabling Cerebrovascular Events trial. Patients with a minor stroke or TIA were categorized into 4 groups according to the quartile of neutrophil counts or neutrophil ratio. The primary outcome was a new stroke (ischemic or hemorrhagic), and secondary outcomes included a new composite vascular event (stroke, myocardial infarction, or death resulting from cardiovascular causes) and ischemic stroke during the 90-day follow-up. We assessed the association between neutrophil counts, neutrophil ratio, and risk of new stroke. A total of 4,854 participants were enrolled, among whom 495 had new strokes at 90 days. Compared with the first quartile, the second, third, and fourth quartiles of neutrophil counts were associated with increased risk of new stroke (adjusted hazard ratio 1.40 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.87], 1.55 [95% CI 1.17-2.05], and 1.69 [95% CI 1.28-2.23], respectively, p for trend <0.001). Similar results were observed for the endpoint of composite events and ischemic stroke. Parallel results were found for neutrophil ratio. High levels of both neutrophil counts and neutrophil ratio were associated with an increased risk of new stroke, composite events, and ischemic stroke in patients with a minor ischemic stroke or TIA. © 2018 American Academy of Neurology.

Selenium and mercury molar ratios in commercial fish from New Jersey and Illinois: variation within species and relevance to risk communication.

PubMed

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael

2013-07-01

There is an emerging consensus that people consuming large amounts of fish with selenium:mercury ratios below 1 are at higher risk from mercury toxicity. As the relative amount of selenium increases compared to mercury, risk may be lowered, but it is unclear how much excess selenium is required. It would be useful if the selenium:mercury ratio was relatively consistent within a species, but this has not been the case in our studies of wild-caught fish. Since most people in developed countries and urban areas obtain their fish and other seafood commercially, we examined selenium:mercury molar ratios in commercial fish purchased in stores and fish markets in central New Jersey and Chicago. There was substantial interspecific and intraspecific variation in molar ratios. Across species the selenium:mercury molar ratio decreased with increasing mean mercury levels, but selenium variation also contributed to the ratio. Few samples had selenium:mercury molar ratios below 1, but there was a wide range in ratios, complicating the interpretation for use in risk management and communication. Before ratios can be used in risk management, more information is needed on mercury:selenium interactions and mutual bioavailability, and on the relationship between molar ratios and health outcomes. Further, people who are selenium deficient may be more at risk from mercury toxicity than others. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Selenium and mercury molar ratios in commercial fish from New Jersey and Illinois: Variation within species and relevance to risk communication

PubMed Central

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael

2015-01-01

There is an emerging consensus that people consuming large amounts of fish with selenium:mercury ratios below 1 may be at higher risk from mercury toxicity. As the relative amount of selenium increases compared to mercury, risk may be lowered, but it is unclear how much excess selenium is required. It would be useful if the selenium:mercury ratio was relatively consistent within a species, but this has not been the case in our studies of wild-caught fish. Since most people in developed countries and urban areas obtain their fish and other seafood commercially, we examined selenium:mercury molar ratios in commercial fish purchased in stores and fish markets in central New Jersey and Chicago. There was substantial interspecific and intraspecific variation in molar ratios. Across species the selenium:mercury molar ratio decreased with increasing mean mercury levels, but selenium variation also contributed to the ratio. Few samples had selenium:mercury molar ratios below 1, but there was a wide range in ratios, complicating the interpretation for use in risk management and communication. Before ratios can be used in risk management, more information is needed on mercury:selenium interactions and mutual bioavailability, and on the relationship between molar ratios and health outcomes. Further, people who are selenium deficient may be more at risk from mercury toxicity than others. PMID:23541437

Vehicle year and the risk of car crash injury.

PubMed

Blows, S; Ivers, R Q; Woodward, M; Connor, J; Ameratunga, S; Norton, R

2003-12-01

To quantify the association between vehicle age and risk of car crash injury. Data from a population based case-control study conducted in the Auckland region in 1998/99 was used to examine the adjusted risk of car crash injury or death due to vehicle age, after controlling for a range of known confounders. Cases were all cars involved in crashes in which at least one occupant was hospitalized or killed anywhere in the Auckland region, and controls were randomly selected cars on Auckland roads. The drivers of the 571 case vehicles and 588 control vehicles completed a structured interview. Hospitalisation or death of a vehicle occupant due to car crash injury. Vehicles constructed before 1984 had significantly greater chance of being involved in an injury crash than those constructed after 1994 (odds ratio 2.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20 to 6.91), after adjustment for potential confounders. There was also a trend for increasing crash risk with each one year increase in vehicle age after adjustment for potential confounders (odds ratio 1.05, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.11; p = 0.09). This study quantifies the increased risk of car crash injury associated with older vehicle year and confirms this as an important public health issue.

Risk of lung cancer and consumption of vegetables and fruit in Japanese: A pooled analysis of cohort studies in Japan

PubMed Central

Wakai, Kenji; Sugawara, Yumi; Tsuji, Ichiro; Tamakoshi, Akiko; Shimazu, Taichi; Matsuo, Keitaro; Nagata, Chisato; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Tanaka, Keitaro; Inoue, Manami; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Sasazuki, Shizuka

2015-01-01

International reviews have concluded that consumption of fruit and vegetables might decrease the risk of lung cancer. However, the relevant epidemiological evidence still remains insufficient in Japan. Therefore, we performed a pooled analysis of data from four population-based cohort studies in Japan with >200 000 participants and >1700 lung cancer cases. We computed study-specific hazard ratios by quintiles of vegetable and fruit consumption as assessed by food frequency questionnaires. Summary hazard ratios were estimated by pooling the study-specific hazard ratios with a fixed-effect model. In men, we found inverse associations between fruit consumption and the age-adjusted and area-adjusted risk of mortality or incidence of lung cancer. However, the associations were largely attenuated after adjustment for smoking and energy intake. The significant decrease in risk among men remained only for a moderate level of fruit consumption; the lowest summary hazard ratios were found in the third quintile of intake (mortality: 0.71, 95% confidence interval 0.60–0.84; incidence: 0.83, 95% confidence interval 0.70–0.98). This decrease in risk was mainly detected in ever smokers. Conversely, vegetable intake was positively correlated with the risk of incidence of lung cancer after adjustment for smoking and energy intake in men (trend P, 0.024); the summary hazard ratio for the highest quintile was 1.26 (95% confidence interval 1.05–1.50). However, a similar association was not detected for mortality from lung cancer. In conclusion, a moderate level of fruit consumption is associated with a decreased risk of lung cancer in men among the Japanese population. PMID:26033436

Stress Hyperglycemia and Prognosis of Minor Ischemic Stroke and Transient Ischemic Attack: The CHANCE Study (Clopidogrel in High-Risk Patients With Acute Nondisabling Cerebrovascular Events).

PubMed

Pan, Yuesong; Cai, Xueli; Jing, Jing; Meng, Xia; Li, Hao; Wang, Yongjun; Zhao, Xingquan; Liu, Liping; Wang, David; Johnston, S Claiborne; Wei, Tiemin; Wang, Yilong

2017-11-01

We aimed to determine the association between stress hyperglycemia and risk of new stroke in patients with a minor ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack. A subgroup of 3026 consecutive patients from 73 prespecified sites of the CHANCE trial (Clopidogrel in High-Risk Patients With Acute Nondisabling Cerebrovascular Events) were analyzed. Stress hyperglycemia was measured by glucose/glycated albumin (GA) ratio. Glucose/GA ratio was calculated by fasting plasma glucose divided by GA and categorized into 4 even groups according to the quartiles. The primary outcome was a new stroke (ischemic or hemorrhagic) at 90 days. We assessed the association between glucose/GA ratio and risk of stroke by multivariable Cox regression models adjusted for potential covariates. Among 3026 patients included, a total of 299 (9.9%) new stroke occurred at 3 months. Compared with patients with the lowest quartile, patients with the highest quartile of glucose/GA ratio was associated with an increased risk of stroke at 3 months after adjusted for potential covariates (12.0% versus 9.2%; adjusted hazard ratio, 1.46; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-2.01). Similar results were observed after further adjusted for fasting plasma glucose. We also observed that higher level of glucose/GA ratio was associated with an increased risk of stroke with a threshold of 0.29 using a Cox regression model with restricted cubic spline. Stress hyperglycemia, measured by glucose/GA ratio, was associated with an increased risk of stroke in patients with a minor ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00979589. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

17 CFR 229.503 - (Item 503) Prospectus summary, risk factors, and ratio of earnings to fixed charges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

..., risk factors, and ratio of earnings to fixed charges. 229.503 Section 229.503 Commodity and Securities... Registration Statement and Prospectus Provisions § 229.503 (Item 503) Prospectus summary, risk factors, and... executive offices. (c) Risk factors. Where appropriate, provide under the caption “Risk Factors” a...

17 CFR 229.503 - (Item 503) Prospectus summary, risk factors, and ratio of earnings to fixed charges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

..., risk factors, and ratio of earnings to fixed charges. 229.503 Section 229.503 Commodity and Securities... Registration Statement and Prospectus Provisions § 229.503 (Item 503) Prospectus summary, risk factors, and... executive offices. (c) Risk factors. Where appropriate, provide under the caption “Risk Factors” a...

Slow Gait Speed and Risk of Long-Term Nursing Home Residence in Older Women, Adjusting for Competing Risk of Mortality: Results from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures.

PubMed

Lyons, Jennifer G; Ensrud, Kristine E; Schousboe, John T; McCulloch, Charles E; Taylor, Brent C; Heeren, Timothy C; Stuver, Sherri O; Fredman, Lisa

2016-12-01

To determine whether slow gait speed increases the risk of costly long-term nursing home residence when accounting for death as a competing risk remains unknown. Longitudinal cohort study using proportional hazards models to predict long-term nursing home residence and subdistribution models with death as a competing risk. Community-based prospective cohort study. Older women (mean age 76.3) participating in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures who were also enrolled in Medicare fee-for-service plans (N = 3,755). Gait speed was measured on a straight 6-m course and averaged over two trials. Long-term nursing home residence was defined using a validated algorithm based on Medicare Part B claims for nursing home-related care. Participants were followed until long-term nursing home residence, disenrollment from Medicare plan, death, or December 31, 2010. Over the follow-up period (median 11 years), 881 participants (23%) experienced long-term nursing home residence, and 1,013 (27%) died before experiencing this outcome. Slow walkers (55% of participants with gait speed <1 m/s) were significantly more likely than fast walkers to reside in a nursing home long-term (adjusted hazards ratio (aHR) = 1.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.54-2.09). Associations were attenuated in subdistribution models (aHR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.30-1.77) but remained statistically significant. Older community-dwelling women with slow gait speed are more likely to experience long-term nursing home residence, as well as mortality without long-term residence. Ignoring the competing mortality risk may overestimate long-term care needs and costs. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

Vascular disease, ESRD, and death: interpreting competing risk analyses.

PubMed

Grams, Morgan E; Coresh, Josef; Segev, Dorry L; Kucirka, Lauren M; Tighiouart, Hocine; Sarnak, Mark J

2012-10-01

Vascular disease, a common condition in CKD, is a risk factor for mortality and ESRD. Optimal patient care requires accurate estimation and ordering of these competing risks. This is a prospective cohort study of screened (n=885) and randomized participants (n=837) in the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study (original study enrollment, 1989-1992), evaluating the association of vascular disease with ESRD and pre-ESRD mortality using standard survival analysis and competing risk regression. The method of analysis resulted in markedly different estimates. Cumulative incidence by standard analysis (censoring at the competing event) implied that, with vascular disease, the 15-year incidence was 66% and 51% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. A more accurate representation of absolute risk was estimated with competing risk regression: 15-year incidence was 54% and 29% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. For the association of vascular disease with pre-ESRD death, estimates of relative risk by the two methods were similar (standard survival analysis adjusted hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-2.20; competing risk regression adjusted subhazard ratio, 1.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-2.14). In contrast, the hazard and subhazard ratios differed substantially for other associations, such as GFR and pre-ESRD mortality. When competing events exist, absolute risk is better estimated using competing risk regression, but etiologic associations by this method must be carefully interpreted. The presence of vascular disease in CKD decreases the likelihood of survival to ESRD, independent of age and other risk factors.

Negative Control Outcomes and the Analysis of Standardized Mortality Ratios.

PubMed

Richardson, David B; Keil, Alexander P; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric; Cooper, Glinda

2015-09-01

In occupational cohort mortality studies, epidemiologists often compare the observed number of deaths in the cohort to the expected number obtained by multiplying person-time accrued in the study cohort by the mortality rate in an external reference population. Interpretation of the result may be difficult due to noncomparability of the occupational cohort and reference population with respect to unmeasured risk factors for the outcome of interest. We describe an approach to estimate an adjusted standardized mortality ratio (aSMR) to control for such bias. The approach draws on methods developed for the use of negative control outcomes. Conditions necessary for unbiased estimation are described, as well as looser conditions necessary for bias reduction. The approach is illustrated using data on bladder cancer mortality among male Oak Ridge National Laboratory workers. The SMR for bladder cancer was elevated among hourly-paid males (SMR = 1.9; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.3, 2.7) but not among monthly-paid males (SMR = 1.0; 95% CI = 0.67, 1.3). After indirect adjustment using the proposed approach, the mortality ratios were similar in magnitude among hourly- and monthly-paid men (aSMR = 2.2; 95% CI = 1.5, 3.2; and, aSMR = 2.0; 95% CI = 1.4, 2.8, respectively). The proposed adjusted SMR offers a complement to typical SMR analyses.

No Evidence for a Relationship Between Hair Testosterone Concentrations and 2D:4D Ratio or Risk Taking

PubMed Central

Ronay, Richard; van der Meij, Leander; Oostrom, Janneke K.; Pollet, Thomas V.

2018-01-01

Using a recently developed alternative assay procedure to measure hormone levels from hair samples, we examined the relationships between testosterone, cortisol, 2D:4D ratio, overconfidence and risk taking. A total of 162 (53 male) participants provided a 3 cm sample of hair, a scanned image of their right and left hands from which we determined 2D:4D ratios, and completed measures of overconfidence and behavioral risk taking. While our sample size for males was less than ideal, our results revealed no evidence for a relationship between hair testosterone concentrations, 2D:4D ratios and risk taking. No relationships with overconfidence emerged. Partially consistent with the Dual Hormone Hypothesis, we did find evidence for the interacting effect of testosterone and cortisol on risk taking but only in men. Hair testosterone concentrations were positively related to risk taking when levels of hair cortisol concentrations were low, in men. Our results lend support to the suggestion that endogenous testosterone and 2D:4D ratio are unrelated and might then exert diverging activating vs. organizing effects on behavior. Comparing our results to those reported in the existing literature we speculate that behavioral correlates of testosterone such as direct effects on risk taking may be more sensitive to state-based fluctuations than baseline levels of testosterone. PMID:29556180

Comparison of the predictive validity of diagnosis-based risk adjusters for clinical outcomes.

PubMed

Petersen, Laura A; Pietz, Kenneth; Woodard, LeChauncy D; Byrne, Margaret

2005-01-01

Many possible methods of risk adjustment exist, but there is a dearth of comparative data on their performance. We compared the predictive validity of 2 widely used methods (Diagnostic Cost Groups [DCGs] and Adjusted Clinical Groups [ACGs]) for 2 clinical outcomes using a large national sample of patients. We studied all patients who used Veterans Health Administration (VA) medical services in fiscal year (FY) 2001 (n = 3,069,168) and assigned both a DCG and an ACG to each. We used logistic regression analyses to compare predictive ability for death or long-term care (LTC) hospitalization for age/gender models, DCG models, and ACG models. We also assessed the effect of adding age to the DCG and ACG models. Patients in the highest DCG categories, indicating higher severity of illness, were more likely to die or to require LTC hospitalization. Surprisingly, the age/gender model predicted death slightly more accurately than the ACG model (c-statistic of 0.710 versus 0.700, respectively). The addition of age to the ACG model improved the c-statistic to 0.768. The highest c-statistic for prediction of death was obtained with a DCG/age model (0.830). The lowest c-statistics were obtained for age/gender models for LTC hospitalization (c-statistic 0.593). The c-statistic for use of ACGs to predict LTC hospitalization was 0.783, and improved to 0.792 with the addition of age. The c-statistics for use of DCGs and DCG/age to predict LTC hospitalization were 0.885 and 0.890, respectively, indicating the best prediction. We found that risk adjusters based upon diagnoses predicted an increased likelihood of death or LTC hospitalization, exhibiting good predictive validity. In this comparative analysis using VA data, DCG models were generally superior to ACG models in predicting clinical outcomes, although ACG model performance was enhanced by the addition of age.

Nuclear Cataract Shows Significant Familial Aggregation in an Older Population after Adjustment for Possible Shared Environmental Factors

PubMed Central

Congdon, Nathan; Broman, Karl W.; Lai, Hong; Munoz, Beatriz; Bowie, Heidi; Gilber, Donna; Wojciechowski, Robert; Alston, Christine; West, Sheila K.

2011-01-01

Purpose To quantify the association between siblings in age-related nuclear cataract, after adjusting for known environmental and personal risk factors. Methods All participants (probands) in the Salisbury Eye Evaluation (SEE) project and their locally resident siblings underwent digital slit lamp photography and were administered a questionnaire to assess risk factors for cataract including: age, gender, lifetime sun exposure, smoking and diabetes history, and use of alcohol and medications such as estrogens and steroids. In addition, blood pressure, body mass index, and serum antioxidants were measured in all participants. Lens photographs were graded by trained observers masked to the subjects' identity, using the Wilmer Cataract Grading System. The odds ratio for siblings for affectedness with nuclear cataract and the sibling correlation of nuclear cataract grade, after adjusting for covariates, were estimated with generalized estimating equations. Results Among 307 probands (mean age, 77.6 ± 4.5 years) and 434 full siblings (mean age, 72.4 ± 7.4 years), the average sibship size was 2.7 per family. After adjustment for covariates, the probability of development of nuclear cataract was significantly increased (odds ratio [OR] = 2.07, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.30–3.30) among individuals with a sibling with nuclear cataract (nuclear grade ≥ 3.0). The final fitted model indicated a magnitude of heritability for nuclear cataract of 35.6% (95% CI: 21.0%–50.3%) after adjustment for the covariates. Conclusions Findings in this study are consistent with a genetic effect for age-related nuclear cataract, a common and clinically significant form of lens opacity. PMID:15223793

Extracellular Fluid/Intracellular Fluid Volume Ratio as a Novel Risk Indicator for All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Disease in Hemodialysis Patients

PubMed Central

Kim, Eun-Jung; Choi, Myung-Jin; Lee, Jeoung-Hwan; Oh, Ji-Eun; Seo, Jang-Won; Lee, Young-Ki; Yoon, Jong-Woo; Kim, Hyung-Jik; Noh, Jung-Woo

2017-01-01

Background In hemodialysis patients, fluid overload and malnutrition are accompanied by extracellular fluid (ECF) expansion and intracellular fluid (ICF) depletion, respectively. We investigated the relationship between ECF/ICF ratio (as an integrated marker reflecting both fluid overload and malnutrition) and survival and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the context of malnutrition-inflammation-arteriosclerosis (MIA) complex. Methods Seventy-seven patients from a single hemodialysis unit were prospectively enrolled. The ECF/ICF volume was measured by segmental multi-frequency bioimpedance analysis. MIA and volume status were measured by serum albumin, C-reactive protein (CRP), pulse wave velocity (PWV) and plasma B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP), respectively. Results The mean ECF/ICF ratio was 0.56±0.06 and the cut-off value for maximum discrimination of survival was 0.57. Compared with the low ECF/ICF group, the high ECF/ICF group (ratio≥0.57, 42%) had higher all-cause mortality, CVD, CRP, PWV, and BNP, but lower serum albumin. During the 5-year follow-up, 24 all-cause mortality and 38 CVD occurred (18 and 24, respectively, in the high ECF/ICF group versus 6 and 14 respectively in the low ECF/ICF group, P<0.001). In the adjusted Cox analysis, the ECF/ICF ratio nullifies the effects of the MIA and volume status on survival and CVD and was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality and CVD: hazard ratio (95% confidence interval); 1.12 (1.01–1.25) and 1.09 (1.01–1.18) for a 0.01 increase in the ECF/ICF ratio. The degree of malnutrition (albumin), inflammation (CRP), arteriosclerosis (PWV), and fluid overload (BNP) were correlated well with the ECF/ICF ratio. Conclusions Hemodialysis patients with high ECF/ICF ratio are not only fluid overloaded, but malnourished and have stiff artery with more inflammation. The ECF/ICF ratio is highly related to the MIA complex, and is a major risk indicator for all-cause mortality and CVD. PMID:28099511

Leptin to adiponectin ratio in preeclampsia.

PubMed

Khosrowbeygi, A; Ahmadvand, H

2013-04-01

The aim of the present study was to assess leptin/adiponectin ratio in preeclamptic patients compared with normal pregnant women. A cross-sectional study was designed. The study population consisted of 30 preeclamptic patients and 30 healthy pregnant women. Serum levels of total leptin and adiponectin were assessed using commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay methods. The one-way ANOVA and Student's t tests and Pearson's correlation analysis were used for statistical calculations. Levels of leptin and adiponectin were also adjusted for BMI. A p-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. The leptin/adiponectin ratio was increased significantly in preeclamptic patients. The leptin/adiponectin ratio was significantly higher in severe preeclamptic patient than in mild preeclampsia. Adjusted leptin/adiponectin ratio was also significantly increased in preeclamptic patients than in normal pregnant women. The findings of the present study suggest that the leptin/adiponectin ratio was increased in preeclamsia and imbalance between the adipocytokines could be involved in the pathogenesis of preeclampsia.

Risk Factors for premature birth in a hospital 1

PubMed Central

Ahumada-Barrios, Margarita E.; Alvarado, German F.

2016-01-01

Abstract Objective: to determine the risk factors for premature birth. Methods: retrospective case-control study of 600 pregnant women assisted in a hospital, with 298 pregnant women in the case group (who gave birth prematurely <37 weeks) and 302 pregnant women who gave birth to a full-term newborn in the control group. Stata software version 12.2 was used. The Chi-square test was used in bivariate analysis and logistic regression was used in multivariate analysis, from which Odds Ratios (OR) and Confidence Intervals (CI) of 95% were derived. Results: risk factors associated with premature birth were current twin pregnancy (adjusted OR= 2.4; p= 0.02), inadequate prenatal care (< 6 controls) (adjusted OR= 3.2; p <0.001), absent prenatal care (adjusted OR= 3.0; p <0.001), history of premature birth (adjusted OR= 3.7; p <0.001) and preeclampsia (adjusted OR= 1.9; p= 0.005). Conclusion: history of premature birth, preeclampsia, not receiving prenatal care and receiving inadequate prenatal care were risk factors for premature birth. PMID:27463110

12 CFR Appendix A to Part 208 - Capital Adequacy Guidelines for State Member Banks: Risk-Based Measure

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Practices (Basle Supervisors' Committee) and endorsed by the Group of Ten Central Bank Governors. The... risk equivalent assets, and calculate risk-based capital ratios adjusted for market risk. The risk... and investment policies; and management's overall ability to monitor and control financial and...

Increased risk of tinnitus in patients with chronic kidney disease: A nationwide, population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Shih, Cheng-Ping; Lin, Hung-Che; Chung, Chi-Hsiang; Hsiao, Po-Jen; Wang, Chih-Hung; Lee, Jih-Chin; Chien, Wu-Chien

2017-01-01

Tinnitus mostly results from central and peripheral auditory pathology. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major risk factor for cerebrovascular disease. However, no studies have evaluated the association between tinnitus and CKD. The aim of this study is to investigate the risk of tinnitus in patients with CKD. This retrospective cohort study was conducted using Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database from 2000 to 2010. We established a CKD group (n = 185,430) and a non-CKD comparison group (n = 556,290) to investigate the incidence of tinnitus. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to evaluate the effects of CKD on tinnitus risk. The results showed CKD significantly increased the risk of tinnitus (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.02; 95% CI, 2.655-3.456, P<0.001). A subgroup analysis revealed the increase in risk of tinnitus is more in CKD patients with heart failure (adjusted hazard ratio, 9.975; 95% CI, 5.001-18.752) and diabetes mellitus (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.712; 95% CI, 2.856-5.007). Furthermore, compared to non-CKD patients, the risk of tinnitus was increased 4.586-fold (95% CI, 2.399-6.7) in CKD patients with dialysis and 2.461-fold (95% CI, 1.033-3.454) in CKD patients without dialysis. This study is the first to report that CKD is associated with an increased risk of tinnitus. Among CKD cohort, patients with dialysis are at a higher risk of tinnitus than those without dialysis.

Risk factors for new-onset late postpartum preeclampsia in women without a history of preeclampsia.

PubMed

Bigelow, Catherine A; Pereira, Guilherme A; Warmsley, Amber; Cohen, Jennifer; Getrajdman, Chloe; Moshier, Erin; Paris, Julia; Bianco, Angela; Factor, Stephanie H; Stone, Joanne

2014-04-01

Risk factors for the development of new-onset late postpartum preeclampsia (LPP) in women without any history of preeclampsia are not known. Because identification of women who are at risk may lead to an earlier diagnosis of disease and improved maternal outcomes, this study identified risk factors (associated patient characteristics) for new-onset LPP. A case-control study of 34 women with new-onset LPP and 68 women without new-onset LPP after normal delivery, who were matched on date of delivery, was conducted at Mount Sinai Hospital, New York, NY. Data were collected by chart review. Exact conditional logistic regression identified patient characteristics that were associated with new-onset LPP. New-onset LPP was associated with age ≥40 years (adjusted odds ratio, 24.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.43-infinity; P = .03), black race (adjusted odds ratio, 78.35; 95% CI, 7.25-infinity; P < .001), Latino ethnicity (adjusted odds ratio, 19.08; 95% CI, 2.73-infinity; P = .001), final pregnancy body mass index of ≥30 kg/m(2) (adjusted odds ratio, 13.38; 95% CI, 1.87-infinity; P = .01), and gestational diabetes mellitus (adjusted odds ratio, 72.91; 95% CI, 5.52-infinity; P < .001). As predictive tests for new-onset LPP, the sensitivity and specificity of having ≥1 of these characteristics was 100% and 59%, respectively, and the sensitivity and specificity of having ≥2 was 56% and 93%, respectively. Older age, black race, Latino ethnicity, obesity, and a pregnancy complicated by gestational diabetes mellitus all are associated positively with the development of new-onset LPP. Closer observation may be warranted in these populations. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

12 CFR 567.8 - Leverage ratio.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... a composite rating of 1, as defined in § 516.3 of this chapter, shall consist of a ratio of core... capital requirement shall consist of a ratio of core capital to adjusted total assets of 4 percent. Higher...

Patient volume, staffing, and workload in relation to risk-adjusted outcomes in a random stratified sample of UK neonatal intensive care units: a prospective evaluation.

PubMed

Tucker, Janet

2002-01-12

UK recommendations suggest that large neonatal intensive-care units (NICUs) have better outcomes than small units, although this suggestion remains unproven. We assessed whether patient volume, staffing levels, and workload are associated with risk-adjusted outcomes, and with costs or staff wellbeing. 186 UK NICUs were stratified according to volume of patients, nursing provision, and neonatal consultant provision. Primary outcomes were hospital mortality, mortality or cerebral damage, and nosocomial bacteraemia. We studied 13515 infants of all birthweights consecutively admitted to 54 randomly selected NICUs. Multiple logistic regression analyses were done with every primary outcome as the dependent variable. Staff wellbeing and stress were assessed by anonymous mental health index (MHI)-5 questionnaires. Data were available for 13334 (99%) infants. High-volume NICUs treated the sickest infants and had highest crude mortality. Risk-adjusted mortality and mortality or cerebral damage were unrelated to patient volume or staffing provision; however, nosocomial bacteraemia was less frequent in NICUs with low neonatal consultant provision (odds ratio 0.65, 95% CI 0.43-0.98). Mortality was raised with increasing workload in all types of NICUs. Infants admitted at full capacity versus half capacity were about 50% more likely to die, but there was wide uncertainty around this estimate. Most staff had MHI-5 scores that suggested good mental health. The implications of this report for staffing policy, medicolegal risk management, and ethical practice remain to be tested. Centralisation of only the sickest infants could improve efficiency, provided that this does not create excessive workload for staff. Assessment of increased staffing levels that are closer to those in adult intensive care might be appropriate.

Cardiometabolic risk assessments by body mass index z-score or waist-to-height ratio in a multiethnic sample of sixth-graders.

PubMed

Kahn, Henry S; El ghormli, Laure; Jago, Russell; Foster, Gary D; McMurray, Robert G; Buse, John B; Stadler, Diane D; Treviño, Roberto P; Baranowski, Tom

2014-01-01

Convention defines pediatric adiposity by the body mass index z-score (BMIz) referenced to normative growth charts. Waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) does not depend on sex-and-age references. In the HEALTHY Study enrollment sample, we compared BMIz with WHtR for ability to identify adverse cardiometabolic risk. Among 5,482 sixth-grade students from 42 middle schools, we estimated explanatory variations (R (2)) and standardized beta coefficients of BMIz or WHtR for cardiometabolic risk factors: insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), lipids, blood pressures, and glucose. For each risk outcome variable, we prepared adjusted regression models for four subpopulations stratified by sex and high versus lower fatness. For HOMA-IR, R (2) attributed to BMIz or WHtR was 19%-28% among high-fatness and 8%-13% among lower-fatness students. R (2) for lipid variables was 4%-9% among high-fatness and 2%-7% among lower-fatness students. In the lower-fatness subpopulations, the standardized coefficients for total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol and triglycerides tended to be weaker for BMIz (0.13-0.20) than for WHtR (0.17-0.28). Among high-fatness students, BMIz and WHtR correlated with blood pressures for Hispanics and whites, but not black boys (systolic) or girls (systolic and diastolic). In 11-12 year olds, assessments by WHtR can provide cardiometabolic risk estimates similar to conventional BMIz without requiring reference to a normative growth chart.

Association between Epicondylitis and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Pooled Occupational Cohorts.

PubMed

Hegmann, Kurt T; Thiese, Matthew S; Kapellusch, Jay; Merryweather, Andrew; Bao, Stephen; Silverstein, Barbara; Wood, Eric M; Kendall, Richard; Foster, James; Drury, David L; Garg, Arun

2017-05-30

The pathophysiology of lateral epicondylitis (LE) is unclear. Recent evidence suggests some common musculoskeletal disorders may have a basis in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors. Thus, we examined CVD risks as potential LE risks. Workers (n = 1824) were enrolled in two large prospective studies and underwent structured interviews and physical examinations at baseline. Analysis of pooled baseline data assessed the relationships separately between a modified Framingham Heart Study CVD risk score and three prevalence outcomes of: 1) lateral elbow pain, 2) positive resisted wrist or middle finger extension, and 3) a combination of both symptoms and at least one resisted maneuver. Quantified job exposures, personal and psychosocial confounders were statistically controlled. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs) were calculated. There was a strong relationship between CVD risk score and lateral elbow symptoms, resisted wrist or middle finger extension and LE after adjustment for confounders. The adjusted ORs for symptoms were as high as 3.81 (95% CI 2.11, 6.85), for positive examination with adjusted odds ratios as high as 2.85 (95% CI 1.59, 5.12) and for combined symptoms and physical examination 6.20 (95% CI 2.04, 18.82). Relationships trended higher with higher CVD risk scores. These data suggest a potentially modifiable disease mechanism for LE.

Risk of Intracranial Hemorrhage From Statin Use in Asians: A Nationwide Cohort Study.

PubMed

Chang, Chia-Hsuin; Lin, Chin-Hsien; Caffrey, James L; Lee, Yen-Chieh; Liu, Ying-Chun; Lin, Jou-Wei; Lai, Mei-Shu

2015-06-09

Reports of statin usage and increased risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) have been inconsistent. This study examined potential associations between statin usage and the risk of ICH in subjects without a previous history of stroke. Patients initiating statin therapy between 2005 and 2009 without a previous history of ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke were identified from Taiwan's National Health Insurance database. Participants were stratified by advanced age (≥70 years), sex, and diagnosed hypertension. The outcome of interest was hospital admission for ICH (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes 430, 431, 432). Cox regression models were applied to estimate the hazard ratio of ICH. The cumulative statin dosage stratified by quartile and adjusted for baseline disease risk score served as the primary variable using the lowest quartile of cumulative dosage as a reference. There were 1 096 547 statin initiators with an average follow-up of 3.3 years. The adjusted hazard ratio for ICH between the highest and the lowest quartile was nonsignificant at 1.06 with a 95% confidence interval spanning 1.00 (0.94-1.19). Similar nonsignificant results were found in sensitivity analyses using different outcome definitions or model adjustments, reinforcing the robustness of the study findings. Subgroup analysis identified an excess of ICH frequency in patients without diagnosed hypertension (adjusted hazard ratio 1.36 [1.11-1.67]). In general, no association was observed between cumulative statin use and the risk of ICH among subjects without a previous history of stroke. An increased risk was identified among the nonhypertensive cohort, but this finding should be interpreted with caution. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Hepatic Fibrosis Progression in HIV-Hepatitis C Virus Co-Infection--The Effect of Sex on Risk of Significant Fibrosis Measured by Aspartate-to-Platelet Ratio Index.

PubMed

Rollet-Kurhajec, Kathleen C; Moodie, Erica E M; Walmsley, Sharon; Cooper, Curtis; Pick, Neora; Klein, Marina B

2015-01-01

In Hepatitis C virus (HCV) mono-infection, male sex is associated with faster liver fibrosis progression but the effects of sex have not been well studied in HIV-HCV co-infected patients. We examined the influence of sex on progression to significant liver fibrosis in HIV-HCV co-infected adults receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) using the aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) as a surrogate biomarker of liver fibrosis. We evaluated 308 HIV infected, HCV RNA positive participants of a Canadian multicentre prospective cohort receiving antiretrovirals and without significant liver fibrosis or end-stage liver disease at baseline. We used multivariate discrete-time proportional hazards models to assess the effect of sex on time to significant fibrosis (APRI≥1.5) adjusting for baseline age, alcohol use, cigarette smoking, HCV duration, and APRI and time-updated CD4 count and HIV RNA. Overall, 55 (18%) participants developed an APRI ≥ 1.5 over 544 person-years of at-risk follow-up time; 18 (21%) women (incidence rate (IR)=14.0/100 PY; 7.5-20.4) and 37 (17%) men (IR=8.9/100 PY; 6.0-11.8). Women had more favourable profiles with respect to traditional risk factors for liver disease progression (younger, shorter duration of HCV infection and less alcohol use). Despite this, female sex was associated with a greater than two-fold increased risk of fibrosis progression (adjusted hazard rate (HR) =2.23; 1.22-4.08). HIV-HCV co-infected women receiving antiretroviral therapy were at significantly greater risk of progressing to liver fibrosis as measured by APRI compared with men. Enhanced efforts to engage and treat co-infected women for HCV are needed.

30 CFR 36.44 - Maximum allowable fuel : air ratio.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... delivered to MSHA with the fuel-injection system adjusted by the applicant and tests of the exhaust-gas... adjustment of the fuel-injection system shall be accepted. The maximum fuel : air ratio determined from the... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Maximum allowable fuel : air ratio. 36.44...

30 CFR 36.44 - Maximum allowable fuel : air ratio.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... delivered to MSHA with the fuel-injection system adjusted by the applicant and tests of the exhaust-gas... adjustment of the fuel-injection system shall be accepted. The maximum fuel : air ratio determined from the... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Maximum allowable fuel : air ratio. 36.44...

30 CFR 36.44 - Maximum allowable fuel : air ratio.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... delivered to MSHA with the fuel-injection system adjusted by the applicant and tests of the exhaust-gas... adjustment of the fuel-injection system shall be accepted. The maximum fuel : air ratio determined from the... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Maximum allowable fuel : air ratio. 36.44...

30 CFR 36.44 - Maximum allowable fuel : air ratio.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... delivered to MSHA with the fuel-injection system adjusted by the applicant and tests of the exhaust-gas... adjustment of the fuel-injection system shall be accepted. The maximum fuel : air ratio determined from the... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Maximum allowable fuel : air ratio. 36.44...