Science.gov

Sample records for administration faa forecasts

  1. FAA (federal Aviation Administration) aviation forecasts - fiscal years 1983-1994

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1983-02-01

    This report contains the Fiscal Years 1983-1994 Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) forecasts of aviation activity at FAA facilities. These include airports with FAA control towers, air route traffic control centers, and flight service stations. Detailed forecasts were made for the four major users of the national aviation system: air carriers, air taxi/commuters, general aviation and the military. The forecasts have been prepared to meet the budget and planning needs of the constituent units of the FAA and to provide information that can be used by state and local authorities, by the aviation industry and the general public. The overall outlook for the forecast period is for moderate economic growth, relatively stable real fuel prices, and decreasing inflation. Based upon these assumptions, aviation activity is forecast to increase by Fiscal Year 1994 by 97 percent at towered airports, 50 percent at air route traffic control centers, and 54 percent in flight services performed. Hours flown by general aviation is forecast to increase 56 percent and helicopter hours flown 80 percent. Scheduled domestic revenue passenger miles (RPM's) are forecast to increase 81 percent, with scheduled international RPM's forecast to increase by 80 percent and commuter RPM's forecast to increase by 220 percent.

  2. 41 CFR 102-75.405 - What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and a copy of... responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and...

  3. 41 CFR 102-75.405 - What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and a copy of... responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and...

  4. 41 CFR 102-75.405 - What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and a copy of... responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and...

  5. 41 CFR 102-75.405 - What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and a copy of... responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and...

  6. 14 CFR 193.15 - What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part? 193.15 Section 193.15 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION... SUBMITTED INFORMATION § 193.15 What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under...

  7. 14 CFR 193.15 - What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part? 193.15 Section 193.15 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION... SUBMITTED INFORMATION § 193.15 What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under...

  8. 14 CFR 193.15 - What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part? 193.15 Section 193.15 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION... SUBMITTED INFORMATION § 193.15 What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under...

  9. 14 CFR 193.15 - What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part? 193.15 Section 193.15 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION... SUBMITTED INFORMATION § 193.15 What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under...

  10. 14 CFR 193.15 - What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part? 193.15 Section 193.15 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION... SUBMITTED INFORMATION § 193.15 What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under...

  11. 14 CFR 11.21 - What are the most common kinds of rulemaking actions for which FAA follows the Administrative...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false What are the most common kinds of rulemaking actions for which FAA follows the Administrative Procedure Act? 11.21 Section 11.21 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES...

  12. 41 CFR 102-37.535 - What information must FAA provide to GSA on its administration of the public airport donation...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... FAA provide to GSA on its administration of the public airport donation program? 102-37.535 Section... (Continued) FEDERAL MANAGEMENT REGULATION PERSONAL PROPERTY 37-DONATION OF SURPLUS PERSONAL PROPERTY Donations to Public Airports § 102-37.535 What information must FAA provide to GSA on its administration...

  13. 41 CFR 102-37.535 - What information must FAA provide to GSA on its administration of the public airport donation...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... FAA provide to GSA on its administration of the public airport donation program? 102-37.535 Section... (Continued) FEDERAL MANAGEMENT REGULATION PERSONAL PROPERTY 37-DONATION OF SURPLUS PERSONAL PROPERTY Donations to Public Airports § 102-37.535 What information must FAA provide to GSA on its administration...

  14. 41 CFR 102-37.535 - What information must FAA provide to GSA on its administration of the public airport donation...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... FAA provide to GSA on its administration of the public airport donation program? 102-37.535 Section... (Continued) FEDERAL MANAGEMENT REGULATION PERSONAL PROPERTY 37-DONATION OF SURPLUS PERSONAL PROPERTY Donations to Public Airports § 102-37.535 What information must FAA provide to GSA on its administration...

  15. 41 CFR 102-37.535 - What information must FAA provide to GSA on its administration of the public airport donation...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... FAA provide to GSA on its administration of the public airport donation program? 102-37.535 Section... (Continued) FEDERAL MANAGEMENT REGULATION PERSONAL PROPERTY 37-DONATION OF SURPLUS PERSONAL PROPERTY Donations to Public Airports § 102-37.535 What information must FAA provide to GSA on its administration...

  16. 41 CFR 102-37.535 - What information must FAA provide to GSA on its administration of the public airport donation...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... FAA provide to GSA on its administration of the public airport donation program? 102-37.535 Section... (Continued) FEDERAL MANAGEMENT REGULATION PERSONAL PROPERTY 37-DONATION OF SURPLUS PERSONAL PROPERTY Donations to Public Airports § 102-37.535 What information must FAA provide to GSA on its administration...

  17. Forecasting and Resource Allocation in Educational Administration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schaefer, Marguerite J.

    1977-01-01

    An awareness of all the forces affecting higher education today is not enough; carefully planned strategies to deal with them are also necessary for effective administration. Organizational-environmental concerns, the seven-component model for managing organizational complexity, and forecasting technologies are among topics discussed. (Editor/TA)

  18. FAA fluorescent penetrant activities

    SciTech Connect

    Moore, D.G.; Larson, B.F.

    1997-11-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration`s Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) and the Center for Aviation Systems Reliability (CASR) are currently working to develop a liquid penetrant inspection (LPI) system evaluation capability that will support the needs of the penetrant manufacturers, commercial airline industry and the FAA. The main focus of this facility is to support the evaluation of penetrant inspection materials, penetrant systems and to apply resources to support industry needs. This paper discusses efforts to create such a facility and an initial project to produce fatigue crack specimens for evaluation of Type 1 penetrant sensitivities.

  19. Forecast: Stormy Weather Ahead in Educational Administration.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Achilles, Charles M.

    1984-01-01

    Research suggests that today's teachers are of declining academic ability and that leadership qualities are discouraged in the system for promoting educational administrators. A systematic response to this crisis in leadership can be developed with the cooperation of universities and colleges and with thoroughly revised personnel policies for…

  20. The systems approach to airport security: The FAA (Federal Aviation Administration)/BWI (Baltimore-Washington International) Airport demonstration project

    SciTech Connect

    Caskey, D.L.; Olascoaga, M.T.

    1990-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has been involved in designing, installing and evaluating security systems for various applications during the past 15 years. A systems approach to security that evolved from this experience was applied to aviation security for the Federal Aviation Administration. A general systems study of aviation security in the United States was concluded in 1987. One result of the study was a recommendation that an enhanced security system concept designed to meet specified objectives be demonstrated at an operational airport. Baltimore-Washington International Airport was selected as the site for the demonstration project which began in 1988 and will be completed in 1992. This article introduced the systems approach to airport security and discussed its application at Baltimore-Washington International Airport. Examples of design features that could be included in an enhanced security concept also were presented, including details of the proposed Ramps Area Intrusion Detection System (RAIDS).

  1. 14 CFR 21.615 - FAA inspection.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false FAA inspection. 21.615 Section 21.615 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT CERTIFICATION... request of the Administrator, each manufacturer of an article under a TSO authorization shall allow...

  2. 14 CFR 49.11 - FAA Aircraft Registry.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false FAA Aircraft Registry. 49.11 Section 49.11 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT RECORDING OF AIRCRAFT TITLES AND SECURITY DOCUMENTS General § 49.11 FAA Aircraft Registry. To be eligible for...

  3. 14 CFR 49.11 - FAA Aircraft Registry.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false FAA Aircraft Registry. 49.11 Section 49.11 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT RECORDING OF AIRCRAFT TITLES AND SECURITY DOCUMENTS General § 49.11 FAA Aircraft Registry. To be eligible for...

  4. 14 CFR 49.11 - FAA Aircraft Registry.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false FAA Aircraft Registry. 49.11 Section 49.11 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT RECORDING OF AIRCRAFT TITLES AND SECURITY DOCUMENTS General § 49.11 FAA Aircraft Registry. To be eligible for...

  5. 14 CFR 11.25 - How does FAA issue rules?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false How does FAA issue rules? 11.25 Section 11.25 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES GENERAL RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.25 How does FAA issue rules?...

  6. An Instructional Systems Approach or FAA Student Centered Training.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Federal Aviation Administration (DOT), Washington, DC.

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Academy has been using a systems approach as part of its training program since 1969. This booklet describes the general characteristics of an instructional system and explains the steps the FAA goes through in implementing the approach. These steps are: 1) recognize a need for training, 2) specify the…

  7. 14 CFR 14.28 - Review by FAA decisionmaker.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Review by FAA decisionmaker. 14.28 Section 14.28 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL... § 14.28 Review by FAA decisionmaker. (a) In proceedings other than those under part 17 of this...

  8. 14 CFR 49.11 - FAA Aircraft Registry.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false FAA Aircraft Registry. 49.11 Section 49.11 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT RECORDING OF..., a conveyance must be mailed to the FAA Aircraft Registry, Department of Transportation, Post...

  9. 14 CFR 14.28 - Review by FAA decisionmaker.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Review by FAA decisionmaker. 14.28 Section 14.28 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL... § 14.28 Review by FAA decisionmaker. (a) In proceedings other than those under part 17 of this...

  10. 14 CFR 14.28 - Review by FAA decisionmaker.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Review by FAA decisionmaker. 14.28 Section 14.28 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL... § 14.28 Review by FAA decisionmaker. (a) In proceedings other than those under part 17 of this...

  11. 14 CFR 14.28 - Review by FAA decisionmaker.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Review by FAA decisionmaker. 14.28 Section 14.28 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL... § 14.28 Review by FAA decisionmaker. (a) In proceedings other than those under part 17 of this...

  12. 14 CFR 14.28 - Review by FAA decisionmaker.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Review by FAA decisionmaker. 14.28 Section 14.28 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL... § 14.28 Review by FAA decisionmaker. (a) In proceedings other than those under part 17 of this...

  13. 14 CFR 11.25 - How does FAA issue rules?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false How does FAA issue rules? 11.25 Section 11.25 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES GENERAL RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.25 How does FAA issue rules?...

  14. 14 CFR 11.25 - How does FAA issue rules?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false How does FAA issue rules? 11.25 Section 11.25 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES GENERAL RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.25 How does FAA issue rules?...

  15. 14 CFR 47.19 - FAA Aircraft Registry.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false FAA Aircraft Registry. 47.19 Section 47.19 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRCRAFT REGISTRATION General § 47.19 FAA Aircraft Registry. Each application, request, notification, or...

  16. 14 CFR 49.11 - FAA Aircraft Registry.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false FAA Aircraft Registry. 49.11 Section 49.11 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT RECORDING OF AIRCRAFT TITLES AND SECURITY DOCUMENTS General § 49.11 FAA Aircraft Registry. To be eligible for...

  17. FAA Smoke Transport Code

    SciTech Connect

    Domino, Stefan; Luketa-Hanlin, Anay; Gallegos, Carlos

    2006-10-27

    FAA Smoke Transport Code, a physics-based Computational Fluid Dynamics tool, which couples heat, mass, and momentum transfer, has been developed to provide information on smoke transport in cargo compartments with various geometries and flight conditions. The software package contains a graphical user interface for specification of geometry and boundary conditions, analysis module for solving the governing equations, and a post-processing tool. The current code was produced by making substantial improvements and additions to a code obtained from a university. The original code was able to compute steady, uniform, isothermal turbulent pressurization. In addition, a preprocessor and postprocessor were added to arrive at the current software package.

  18. FAA Smoke Transport Code

    2006-10-27

    FAA Smoke Transport Code, a physics-based Computational Fluid Dynamics tool, which couples heat, mass, and momentum transfer, has been developed to provide information on smoke transport in cargo compartments with various geometries and flight conditions. The software package contains a graphical user interface for specification of geometry and boundary conditions, analysis module for solving the governing equations, and a post-processing tool. The current code was produced by making substantial improvements and additions to a codemore » obtained from a university. The original code was able to compute steady, uniform, isothermal turbulent pressurization. In addition, a preprocessor and postprocessor were added to arrive at the current software package.« less

  19. 14 CFR 39.5 - When does FAA issue airworthiness directives?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false When does FAA issue airworthiness directives? 39.5 Section 39.5 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS DIRECTIVES § 39.5 When does FAA issue airworthiness directives? FAA...

  20. 14 CFR 39.5 - When does FAA issue airworthiness directives?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false When does FAA issue airworthiness directives? 39.5 Section 39.5 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS DIRECTIVES § 39.5 When does FAA issue airworthiness directives? FAA...

  1. Data quality improvements for FAA

    SciTech Connect

    Perry, R.; Marlman, K.; Olson, D.; Werner, P.

    1997-09-01

    Effective communication among air safety professionals is only as good as the information being communicated. Data sharing cannot be effective unless the data are relevant to aviation safety problems, and decisions based on faulty data are likely to be invalid. The validity of aviation safety data depends on satisfying two primary characteristics. Data must accurately represent or conform to the real world (conformance), and it must be relevant or useful to addressing the problems at hand (utility). The FAA, in efforts to implement the Safety Performance Analysis System (SPAS), identified significant problems in the quality of the data which SPAS and FAA air safety professionals would use in defining the state of aviation safety in the US. These finding were reinforced by Department of Transportation Inspector General and General Accounting Office investigations into FAA surveillance of air transport operations. Many recent efforts to improve data quality have been centered on technological solutions to the problems. They concentrate on reducing errors in the data (conformance), but they cannot adequately address the relationship of data to need (utility). Sandia National Laboratories, working with the FAA`s Airport and Aircraft Safety Research and Development Division and the Flight Standards Service, has been involved in four programs to assist FAA in addressing their data quality problems. The Sandia approach has been data-driven rather than technology-driven. In other words, the focus has been on first establishing the data requirements by analyzing the FAA`s surveillance and decision-making processes. This process analysis looked at both the data requirements and the methods used to gather the data in order to address both the conformance and utility problems inherent in existing FAA data systems. This paper discusses Sandia`s data quality programs and their potential improvements to the safety analysis processes and surveillance programs of the FAA.

  2. A Computer-Based Private Pilot (Airplane) Certification Exam: A First Step Toward Nation-Wide Computer-Administration of FAA Certification Exams.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Richard I.; Trollip, Stanley R.

    1982-01-01

    To assess the feasibility of computer-assisted Federal Aviation Administration certification examinations, a system for administering the Private Pilot Certification Examination was implemented using PLATO. Characteristics, reactions, and guidelines for use of the test are included. (Author/JJD)

  3. NASA-FAA-NOAA Partnering Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colantonio, Ron

    2003-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation provides an overview of NASA-FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) collaboration efforts particularly in the area of aviation and aircraft safety. Five technology areas are being jointly by these agencies: (1) aviation weather information; (2) weather products; (3) automet technologies; (4) forward looking weather sensors and (5) turbulence controls and mitigation systems. Memorandum of Agreements (MOU) between these agencies are reviewed. A general review of the pros and pitfalls of inter-agency collaborations is also presented.

  4. FAA Film Catalog.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Federal Aviation Administration (DOT), Washington, DC.

    Some 75 films from the U.S. Department of Transportation's Federal Aviation Administration are listed in this catalog. Topics dealt with include aerodynamics, airports, aviation history and careers, flying clubs, navigation and weather. Most of the films are 16mm sound and color productions. Filmstrips requiring a 35mm projector and phonograph or…

  5. FAA Aviation Research Grant Program and Aviation Research Centers of Excellence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snyder, Fred W.

    1993-04-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has been granted the authority to issue research grants and to establish aviation research centers of excellence. This flexible instrument is of benefit to the FAA and to colleges, universities and other appropriate research institutions. Its purpose is to encourage and support innovative, advanced research in areas of potential benefit to the long-term growth of civil aviation. The following discussion outlines some of the principal features and indicates areas of interest to the FAA.

  6. The Role of the FAA in US Commercial Space Transportation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Patricia Grace

    2002-01-01

    The Commercial Space Launch Act of 1984 granted the United States (U.S.) Secretary of Transportation authority to regulate launch and launch site operations conducted by U.S. citizens or from the U.S. This authority is exercised only to the extent necessary to protect public health and safety, protect property, and preserve U.S. national security and foreign policy interests. The Secretary of Transportation has delegated this responsibility to the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the FAA Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation carries out activities associated with this responsibility. Since 1984, the Commercial Space Launch Act has been amended several times and the FAA's responsibilities regarding U.S. commercial space transportation activities have been expanded to include regulation of reentry activities and operation of reentry sites by U.S. citizens. Additionally, the FAA can determine safety approval criteria for vehicles, safety systems, processes, services and personnel. Since 1984, there have been no fatalities or injuries suffered by the public resulting from U.S. commercial space launch activities. While public safety is its primary focus, the FAA also promotes launches by U.S. commercial space transportation entities in order to support U.S. competitiveness in the global marketplace.

  7. 76 FR 6094 - FAA Public Forum To Conduct Regulatory Review

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-02-03

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration 14 CFR Parts 27 and 29 FAA Public Forum To Conduct Regulatory Review... the Heli-Expo conference to participate in this public forum. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:...

  8. 14 CFR 91.1050 - Employment of former FAA employees.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Employment of former FAA employees. 91.1050 Section 91.1050 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (CONTINUED) AIR TRAFFIC AND GENERAL OPERATING RULES GENERAL OPERATING AND FLIGHT RULES Fractional Ownership Operations Program Management §...

  9. 14 CFR 11.31 - How does FAA process direct final rules?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false How does FAA process direct final rules? 11.31 Section 11.31 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES GENERAL RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.31 How does FAA...

  10. Towards FAA Certification of UAVs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, Stacy

    2003-01-01

    As of June 30, 2003, all Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), no matter how small, must adhere to the same FAA regulations as human-piloted aircraft. These regulations include certification for flying in controlled airspace and certification of flight software based on RTCA DO-178B. This paper provides an overview of the steps necessary to obtain certification, as well as a discussion about the challenges UAV's face when trying to meet these requirements. It is divided into two parts: 1) Certifications for Flying in Controlled Airspace; 2) Certification of Flight Software per RTCA DO-178B.

  11. NDE research efforts at the FAA Center for Aviation Systems Reliability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thompson, Donald O.; Brasche, Lisa J. H.

    1992-01-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration-Center for Aviation Systems Reliability (FAA-CASR), a part of the Institute for Physical Research and Technology at Iowa State University, began operation in the Fall of 1990 with funding from the FAA. The mission of the FAA-CASR is to develop quantitative nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods for aircraft structures and materials including prototype instrumentation, software, techniques, and procedures and to develop and maintain comprehensive education and training programs in aviation specific inspection procedures and practices. To accomplish this mission, FAA-CASR brings together resources from universities, government, and industry to develop a comprehensive approach to problems specific to the aviation industry. The problem areas are targeted by the FAA, aviation manufacturers, the airline industry and other members of the aviation business community. This consortium approach ensures that the focus of the efforts is on relevant problems and also facilitates effective transfer of the results to industry.

  12. Bonneville Power Administration Forecasts of Electricity Consumption in the Pacific Northwest; Technical Documentation.

    SciTech Connect

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1983-10-01

    A 20-year forecast of electricity consumption in the Pacific Northwest is presented for the years 1982-2003. Projections are expressed as a baseline, with alternative cases representing situations of high and low electricity consumption. All three projections are produced by merging separate long-term and midterm forecasts. The long-term forecast is produced using a series of demand models (each addressing a specific consuming sector) in conjunction with an electricity supply pricing model. These models provide a detailed breakdown of energy use and permit long-range comparisons of alternative power planning policy decisions. They are not, however, sensitive to weather conditions, business cycles, or economic fluctuations which might prove significant in the near future. BPA's midterm forecasting models are designed specifically to be responsive to such factors, allowing them to be captured in the final load forecast which merges the long-term and midterm projections. These midterm models econometrically forecast energy demand by state but without any detail by consuming sector. The midterm forecast will be updated quarterly to reflect the mot current regional projections of near-term economic activity.

  13. The FAA`s Aging Aircraft Nondestructive Inspection Validation Center at Sandia National Laboratories: An introduction

    SciTech Connect

    Walter, P.

    1995-07-01

    In these times of budget tightening for both government and private industry, this issue of Materials Evaluation is devoted to describing a cooperative relationship leveraging resources in the Department of Transportation`s Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the Department of Energy`s Sandia National Laboratories. This relationship resulted in a facility whose purpose is to assess technologies intended to enhance the reliability and cost effectiveness of inspection in the civil aviation industry. Eight articles are presented to describe this facility and its related activities. The center, located at the Albuquerque International Airport, has as its mission assessing and -- where justified -- encouraging the transfer of emerging inspection technologies to the civil aviation industry.

  14. FAA bulk technology overview for explosives detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Novakoff, Alan K.

    1993-04-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is the leading federal agency responsible for encouraging and fostering the development of a safe, secure, and efficient national airspace system (NAS). Our goal is to establish an operating environment that ensures a threat-free system to preclude acts of terrorism and fatalities. As part of the process to meet this goal, our research and development activities continually search for technologies to ensure aviation security. Recent acts of terrorism against the aviation community have demonstrated an increasing level of sophistication in the design and deployment of explosive devices. In order to prevent the introduction of explosives onto an aircraft they must be detected prior to passenger and baggage loading. The Bulk Detection program is one method of developing a number of technologies that 'see' into and 'alarm' on suspect baggage. These detection devices must be capable of providing this serve with a confidence commensurate with the state-of-the- art available today. This program utilizes the expertise of government agencies, universities and industries working toward constructing their plans and executing their designs to produce the best available equipment.

  15. 14 CFR 145.223 - FAA inspections.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... compliance with this chapter. (b) A certificated repair station may not contract for the performance of a... noncertificated person that the FAA may make an inspection and observe the performance of the...

  16. 14 CFR 11.23 - Does FAA follow the same procedures in issuing all types of rules?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Does FAA follow the same procedures in issuing all types of rules? 11.23 Section 11.23 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION... authority to issue each type, and where you send petitions for FAA to adopt, amend, or repeal each...

  17. Not flavone-8-acetic acid (FAA) but its murine metabolite 6-OH-FAA exhibits remarkable antivascular activities in vitro.

    PubMed

    Pham, Minh Hien; Dauzonne, Daniel; Chabot, Guy G

    2016-06-01

    Flavone-8-acetic acid (FAA) has been proved to be a potent vascular-disrupting agent in mice. Unfortunately, FAA did not produce any anticancer activity in clinical trials. Previously, we had reported that FAA is metabolized by mouse microsomes into six metabolites, whereas it was poorly metabolized by human microsomes, with fewer metabolites formed in lesser amounts. Especially, 6-OH-FAA was not formed by human microsomes. In this work, two major available metabolites, 4'-OH-FAA and 6-OH-FAA, were tested and compared with the parent compound FAA for their potential antivascular activities in vitro. The ability of the products to induce morphological changes, disrupt preformed capillaries of EA.hy926 endothelial cells and inhibit tubulin polymerization in vitro was assessed. The action mechanism was determined using the RhoA and Rac1 inhibitors. At 25 µg/ml, 6-OH-FAA induced morphological changes and membrane blebbing, whereas 300 µg/ml of FAA and 4'-OH-FAA slightly changed the morphology without inducing membrane blebbing. At 300 µg/ml, 6-OH-FAA produced morphological changes that were 2.1-6.9-fold greater than that produced by FAA and 4'-OH-FAA, an effect that was consistent with its much greater inhibitory effect on tubulin polymerization compared with FAA and 4'-OH-FAA. 6-OH-FAA significantly disrupted the EA.hy926 cell capillaries. 6-OH-FAA activities were prevented in EA.hy926 cells pretreated with RhoA, but not Rac1, inhibitor. In this short communication we report for the first time that, in vitro, 6-OH-FAA, a mouse-specific FAA metabolite, exhibits significantly stronger antivascular activities compared with FAA and 4'-OH-FAA, which are mediated through the RhoA kinase pathway. PMID:26901071

  18. The FAA's Approach to Quality Assurance in the Flight Safety Analysis of Launch and Reentry Vehicles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murray, Daniel P.; Weil, Andre

    2010-09-01

    The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration(FAA) Office of Commercial Space Transportation’s safety mission is to ensure protection of the public, property, and the national security and foreign policy interests of the United States during commercial launch and reentry activities. As part of this mission, the FAA issues licenses to the operators of launch and reentry vehicles who successfully demonstrate compliance with FAA regulations. To meet these regulations, vehicle operators submit an application that contains, among other things, flight safety analyses of their proposed missions. In the process of evaluating these submitted analyses, the FAA often conducts its own independent analyses, using input data from the submitted license application. These analyses are conducted according to approved procedures using industry developed tools. To assist in achieving the highest levels of quality in these independent analyses, the FAA has developed a quality assurance program that consists of multiple levels of review. These reviews rely on the work of multiple teams, as well as additional, independently performed work of support contractors. This paper describes the FAA’s quality assurance process for flight safety analyses. Members of the commercial space industry may find that elements of this process can be easily applied to their own analyses, improving the quality of the material they submit to the FAA in their license applications.

  19. NASA/FAA helicopter simulator workshop

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Larsen, William E. (Editor); Randle, Robert J., Jr. (Editor); Bray, Richard S. (Editor); Zuk, John (Editor)

    1992-01-01

    A workshop was convened by the FAA and NASA for the purpose of providing a forum at which leading designers, manufacturers, and users of helicopter simulators could initiate and participate in a development process that would facilitate the formulation of qualification standards by the regulatory agency. Formal papers were presented, special topics were discussed in breakout sessions, and a draft FAA advisory circular defining specifications for helicopter simulators was presented and discussed. A working group of volunteers was formed to work with the National Simulator Program Office to develop a final version of the circular. The workshop attracted 90 individuals from a constituency of simulator manufacturers, training organizations, the military, civil regulators, research scientists, and five foreign countries.

  20. Data Driven Decision Making and the School Administrator: A Delphi Study Forecast

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pruitt, Cheryl Lynn

    2009-01-01

    Although the number of high-needs schools that are failing to achieve "Adequate Yearly Progress" (AYP) steadily increases, some are successfully increasing student achievement, staff productivity and collegiality. The purpose of this study was to use a three-round Delphi process to obtain the expert opinions of 10 administrators who moved their…

  1. 14 CFR 11.38 - What public comment procedures does the FAA follow for Special Conditions?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false What public comment procedures does the FAA follow for Special Conditions? 11.38 Section 11.38 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION... before we issue a special condition. If we don't, we will invite comment when we publish the...

  2. 14 CFR 11.31 - How does FAA process direct final rules?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false How does FAA process direct final rules? 11.31 Section 11.31 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION... the change in the direct final rule at issue. We consider the comment adverse, however, if...

  3. 14 CFR Appendix A to Part 415 - FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form A Appendix A to Part 415 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH LICENSE Pt. 415, App. A Appendix A to Part...

  4. 47 CFR 17.14 - Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Certain antenna structures exempt from... CONSTRUCTION, MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.14 Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA. A notification to the...

  5. 47 CFR 17.7 - Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Antenna structures requiring notification to..., MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.7 Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA. A notification to the Federal...

  6. 47 CFR 17.7 - Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Antenna structures requiring notification to..., MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.7 Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA. A notification to the Federal...

  7. 47 CFR 17.14 - Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Certain antenna structures exempt from... CONSTRUCTION, MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.14 Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA. Link to an amendment...

  8. 47 CFR 17.7 - Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Antenna structures requiring notification to..., MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.7 Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA. A notification to the Federal...

  9. 47 CFR 17.7 - Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Antenna structures requiring notification to..., MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.7 Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA. A notification to the Federal...

  10. 47 CFR 17.14 - Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Certain antenna structures exempt from... CONSTRUCTION, MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.14 Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA. A notification to the...

  11. 47 CFR 17.7 - Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Antenna structures requiring notification to..., MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.7 Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA. Link to an amendment published at 79 FR 56986,...

  12. 47 CFR 17.14 - Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Certain antenna structures exempt from... CONSTRUCTION, MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.14 Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA. A notification to the...

  13. 47 CFR 17.14 - Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Certain antenna structures exempt from... CONSTRUCTION, MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.14 Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA. A notification to the...

  14. 14 CFR 11.38 - What public comment procedures does the FAA follow for Special Conditions?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false What public comment procedures does the FAA follow for Special Conditions? 11.38 Section 11.38 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES GENERAL RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures...

  15. 49 CFR 1540.117 - Threat assessments regarding aliens holding or applying for FAA certificates, ratings, or...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... HOMELAND SECURITY CIVIL AVIATION SECURITY CIVIL AVIATION SECURITY: GENERAL RULES Responsibilities of... threat to airline or passenger security; or (4) A threat to civil aviation security. (d) Representation... next in rank below the Administrator. FAA Administrator means the Administrator of the Federal...

  16. 49 CFR 1540.117 - Threat assessments regarding aliens holding or applying for FAA certificates, ratings, or...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... HOMELAND SECURITY CIVIL AVIATION SECURITY CIVIL AVIATION SECURITY: GENERAL RULES Responsibilities of... threat to airline or passenger security; or (4) A threat to civil aviation security. (d) Representation... next in rank below the Administrator. FAA Administrator means the Administrator of the Federal...

  17. 49 CFR 1540.117 - Threat assessments regarding aliens holding or applying for FAA certificates, ratings, or...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... HOMELAND SECURITY CIVIL AVIATION SECURITY CIVIL AVIATION SECURITY: GENERAL RULES Responsibilities of... threat to airline or passenger security; or (4) A threat to civil aviation security. (d) Representation... next in rank below the Administrator. FAA Administrator means the Administrator of the Federal...

  18. 49 CFR 1540.117 - Threat assessments regarding aliens holding or applying for FAA certificates, ratings, or...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... HOMELAND SECURITY CIVIL AVIATION SECURITY CIVIL AVIATION SECURITY: GENERAL RULES Responsibilities of... threat to airline or passenger security; or (4) A threat to civil aviation security. (d) Representation... next in rank below the Administrator. FAA Administrator means the Administrator of the Federal...

  19. 14 CFR 11.87 - Are there circumstances in which FAA may decide not to publish a summary of my petition for...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... decide not to publish a summary of my petition for exemption? 11.87 Section 11.87 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES GENERAL RULEMAKING... in which FAA may decide not to publish a summary of my petition for exemption? The FAA may...

  20. Technology Development, Validation, and Transfer Via the FAA Airworthiness Assurance Validation

    SciTech Connect

    Perry, R.L.

    1999-04-15

    In 1991, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) established an Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) at Sandia National Laboratories. Its primary mission is to support technology development, validation, and transfer to industry in order to enhance the airworthiness and improve the aircraft maintenance practices of the U.S. commercial aviation industry. The Center conducts projects in a myriad of engineering disciplines. The results are placed in the public domain so that the industry at-large can reap the benefits of FAA-funded Research and Development efforts. To support the Center's goals, the FAA/AANC has set up a hangar facility at the Albuquerque International Airport which contains a collection of transport and commuter aircraft as well as other test specimens. The facility replicates a working maintenance environment by incorporating both the physical inspection difficulties as well as the environmental factors which influence maintenance reliability.

  1. NASA/FAA Tailplane Icing Program Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ratvasky, Thomas P.; VanZante, Judith Foss; Riley, James T.

    1999-01-01

    The effects of tailplane icing were investigated in a four-year NASA/FAA Tailplane Icing, Program (TIP). This research program was developed to improve the understanding, of iced tailplane aeroperformance and aircraft aerodynamics, and to develop design and training aides to help reduce the number of incidents and accidents caused by tailplane icing. To do this, the TIP was constructed with elements that included icing, wind tunnel testing, dry-air aerodynamic wind tunnel testing, flight tests, and analytical code development. This paper provides an overview of the entire program demonstrating the interconnectivity of the program elements and reports on current accomplishments.

  2. NASA/FAA/NCAR Supercooled Large Droplet Icing Flight Research: Summary of Winter 1996-1997 Flight Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, Dean; Ratvasky, Thomas; Bernstein, Ben; McDonough, Frank; Strapp, J. Walter

    1998-01-01

    During the winter of 1996-1997, a flight research program was conducted at the NASA-Lewis Research Center to study the characteristics of Supercooled Large Droplets (SLD) within the Great Lakes region. This flight program was a joint effort between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Based on weather forecasts and real-time in-flight guidance provided by NCAR, the NASA-Lewis Icing Research Aircraft was flown to locations where conditions were believed to be conducive to the formation of Supercooled Large Droplets aloft. Onboard instrumentation was then used to record meteorological, ice accretion, and aero-performance characteristics encountered during the flight. A total of 29 icing research flights were conducted, during which "conventional" small droplet icing, SLD, and mixed phase conditions were encountered aloft. This paper will describe how flight operations were conducted, provide an operational summary of the flights, present selected experimental results from one typical research flight, and conclude with practical "lessons learned" from this first year of operation.

  3. FAA Technical Center Aeronautical Data Link Research Plan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buck, Frank; Cratch, Preston; Fischer, Terence; Lunder, Joseph; Shingledecker, Clark; Stahl, David; Sweeney, David

    1992-10-01

    The purpose of this plan is to project a clear and distinct description of the Data Link research that is to be conducted at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Technical Center over the next 4 years. It explicitly defines what is to be achieved at a specific time in the future. End-to-end, high fidelity simulations will be the primary methodology for answering research questions. The end-to-end simulations identified in this plan are intended to investigate controller/aircrew integration issues using candidate Data Link hardware and software configurations. Research will also focus on testing Data Link applications in terms of their impact on controllers, aircrew, and the overall safety, efficiency, and productivity of the system. Additionally, research efforts are planned to address the most critical human factors issues surrounding Data Link.

  4. Implementation of the FAA research and development electromagnetic database

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcdowall, R. L.; Grush, D. J.; Cook, D. M.; Glynn, M. S.

    1991-01-01

    The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) has been assisting the FAA in developing a database of information about lightning. The FAA Research and Development Electromagnetic Database (FRED) will ultimately contain data from a variety of airborne and ground-based lightning research projects. An outline of the data currently available in FRED is presented. The data sources which the FAA intends to incorporate into FRED are listed. In addition, it describes how the researchers may access and use the FRED menu system.

  5. FAA/NASA En Route Noise Symposium

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Powell, Clemans A. (Compiler)

    1990-01-01

    Aircraft community noise annoyance is traditionally a concern only in localities near airports. The proposed introduction of large commercial airplanes with advanced turboprop propulsion systems with supersonic propellers has given rise to concerns of noise annoyance in areas previously considered not to be impacted by aircraft noise. A symposium was held to assess the current knowledge of factors important to the impact of en route noise and to aid in the formulation of FAA and NASA programs in the area. Papers were invited on human response to aircraft noise in areas with low ambient noise levels, aircraft noise heard indoors and outdoors, aircraft noise in recreational areas, detection of propeller and jet aircraft noise, and methodological issues relevant to the design of future studies.

  6. 32 CFR 728.58 - Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 5 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. 728.58 Section 728.58 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY PERSONNEL... Federal Agencies § 728.58 Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. (a) Beneficiaries. Air...

  7. 32 CFR 728.58 - Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 5 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. 728.58 Section 728.58 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY PERSONNEL... Federal Agencies § 728.58 Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. (a) Beneficiaries. Air...

  8. 32 CFR 728.58 - Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 5 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. 728.58 Section 728.58 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY PERSONNEL... Federal Agencies § 728.58 Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. (a) Beneficiaries. Air...

  9. 32 CFR 728.58 - Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 5 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. 728.58 Section 728.58 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY PERSONNEL... Federal Agencies § 728.58 Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. (a) Beneficiaries. Air...

  10. A Relocatable Environmental Prediction System for Volcanic Ash Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cook, J.; Geiszler, D.

    2009-12-01

    Timeliness is an essential component for any system generating volcanic ash forecasts for aviation. Timeliness implies that the steps required for estimating the concentration of volcanic ash in the atmosphere are streamlined into a process that can accurately identify the volcano’s source function, utilize atmospheric conditions to predict the movement of the volcanic ash plume, and ultimately produce a volcanic ash forecast product in a useable format for aviation interests. During the past decade, the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) has developed a suite of software integrated with the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®) that is designed with a similar automated purpose in support of the Navy’s operational (24/7) schedule and diverse mission requirements worldwide. The COAMPS-OS® (On-demand System) provides web-based interfaces to COAMPS that allows Navy users to rapidly (in a few minutes) set up and start a new forecast in response to short-fused requests. A unique capability in COAMPS unlike many regional numerical weather prediction models is the option to initialize a volcanic ash plume and use the model’s full three-dimensional atmospheric grid (e.g. winds and precipitation) to predict the movement and concentration of the plume. This paper will describe the efforts to automate volcanic ash forecasts using COAMPS-OS including the specification of the source function, initialization and configuration of COAMPS, and generation of output products for aviation. This research is in response to requirements and funding by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the FAA. COAMPS® and COAMPS-OS® are registered trademarks of the Naval Research Laboratory.

  11. FAA Pilot Knowledge Tests: Learning or Rote Memorization?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Casner, Stephen M.; Jones, Karen M.; Puentes, Antonio; Irani, Homi

    2004-01-01

    The FAA pilot knowledge test is a multiple-choice assessment tool designed to measure the extent to which applicants for FAA pilot certificates and ratings have mastered a corpus of required aeronautical knowledge. All questions that appear on the test are drawn from a database of questions that is made available to the public. The FAA and others are concerned that releasing test questions may encourage students to focus their study on memorizing test questions. To investigate this concern, we created our own database of questions that differed from FAA questions in four different ways. Our first three question types were derived by modifying existing FAA questions: (1) rewording questions and answers; (2) shuffling answers; and (3) substituting different figures for problems that used figures. Our last question type posed a question about required knowledge for which no FAA question currently exists. Forty-eight student pilots completed one of two paper-and-pencil knowledge tests that contained a mix of these experimental questions. The results indicate significantly lower scores for some question types when compared to unaltered FAA questions to which participants had prior access.

  12. 14 CFR 11.27 - Are there other ways FAA collects specific rulemaking recommendations before we issue an NPRM?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... rulemaking recommendations before we issue an NPRM? 11.27 Section 11.27 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES GENERAL RULEMAKING PROCEDURES... before we issue an NPRM? Yes, the FAA obtains advice and recommendations from rulemaking...

  13. 78 FR 33146 - Notice of Proposal Policy for Distribution of FAA Data and Information; Extension of Comment Period

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-06-03

    ... complete Privacy Act Statement can be found in the Federal Register published on April 11, 2000 (65 FR... FAA data and information (78 FR 25521). Comments to that document were to be received on or before May... TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration RIN 2120-AJ61 Notice of Proposal Policy for Distribution of...

  14. 14 CFR 11.27 - Are there other ways FAA collects specific rulemaking recommendations before we issue an NPRM?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Are there other ways FAA collects specific rulemaking recommendations before we issue an NPRM? 11.27 Section 11.27 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES GENERAL RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.27 Are...

  15. 49 CFR 1540.117 - Threat assessments regarding aliens holding or applying for FAA certificates, ratings, or...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 9 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Threat assessments regarding aliens holding or applying for FAA certificates, ratings, or authorizations. 1540.117 Section 1540.117 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) TRANSPORTATION SECURITY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY CIVIL AVIATION...

  16. 49 CFR 1540.115 - Threat assessments regarding citizens of the United States holding or applying for FAA...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 9 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Threat assessments regarding citizens of the United States holding or applying for FAA certificates, ratings, or authorizations. 1540.115 Section 1540.115 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) TRANSPORTATION SECURITY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND...

  17. 14 CFR 406.105 - Separation of functions for prosecuting civil penalties and advising the FAA decisionmaker.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... civil penalties and advising the FAA decisionmaker. 406.105 Section 406.105 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURE... Adjudications § 406.105 Separation of functions for prosecuting civil penalties and advising the...

  18. 14 CFR 406.105 - Separation of functions for prosecuting civil penalties and advising the FAA decisionmaker.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... civil penalties and advising the FAA decisionmaker. 406.105 Section 406.105 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURE... Adjudications § 406.105 Separation of functions for prosecuting civil penalties and advising the...

  19. 14 CFR 406.105 - Separation of functions for prosecuting civil penalties and advising the FAA decisionmaker.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... civil penalties and advising the FAA decisionmaker. 406.105 Section 406.105 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURE... Adjudications § 406.105 Separation of functions for prosecuting civil penalties and advising the...

  20. 14 CFR 406.105 - Separation of functions for prosecuting civil penalties and advising the FAA decisionmaker.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... civil penalties and advising the FAA decisionmaker. 406.105 Section 406.105 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURE... Adjudications § 406.105 Separation of functions for prosecuting civil penalties and advising the...

  1. 14 CFR 406.105 - Separation of functions for prosecuting civil penalties and advising the FAA decisionmaker.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... civil penalties and advising the FAA decisionmaker. 406.105 Section 406.105 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURE... Adjudications § 406.105 Separation of functions for prosecuting civil penalties and advising the...

  2. 14 CFR 11.29 - May FAA change its regulations without first issuing an ANPRM or NPRM?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false May FAA change its regulations without first issuing an ANPRM or NPRM? 11.29 Section 11.29 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES GENERAL RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking...

  3. 14 CFR 11.23 - Does FAA follow the same procedures in issuing all types of rules?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Does FAA follow the same procedures in issuing all types of rules? 11.23 Section 11.23 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES GENERAL RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures...

  4. 14 CFR 39.21 - Where can I get information about FAA-approved alternative methods of compliance?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Where can I get information about FAA-approved alternative methods of compliance? 39.21 Section 39.21 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS DIRECTIVES § 39.21 Where can I...

  5. Overview of composite projects at the FAA Airworthiness Assurance Validation Center

    SciTech Connect

    Shurtleff, W.W.; Roach, D.P.; Valley, M.T.

    1997-03-01

    The Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) was established by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) William J. Hughes Technical Center at Sandia National Laboratories in 1991 to support nondestructive inspection (NDI) technology development and assessment. The evaluations are done using a variety of characterized test specimens and test beds including entire transport and commuter aircraft. Although the initial work at the Center concentrated on metallic structure, the FAA has more recently expanded the AANC`s charter to include projects directed at composite repair and inspection. The three projects briefly described in this paper are: (1) the validation and technology transfer of a thermographic techniques for composite inspection, (2) the development of generic composite laminate and honeycomb calibration reference standards, and (3) the certification of the use of boron epoxy doubler on a Lockheed L-1011.

  6. 75 FR 12809 - Federal Aviation Administration

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-03-17

    ... Federal Aviation Administration Notice of Intent To Rule on Request To Release Airport Property at the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, DFW Airport, Texas AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA... Aviation Administration, Southwest Region, Airports Division, Texas Airports Development Office,...

  7. 76 FR 78966 - Federal Aviation Administration

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-12-20

    ... Federal Aviation Administration Approval of Noise Compatibility Program for Kona International Airport at Keahole, Keahole, North Kona, HI AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration, DOT. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announces its findings on the noise compatibility...

  8. Forecasting forecast skill

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kalnay, Eugenia; Dalcher, Amnon

    1987-01-01

    It is shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts - a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average correlation) between members of an ensemble of forecasts started from five different analyses. The analyses had been previously derived for satellite-data-impact studies and included, in the Northern Hemisphere, moderate perturbations associated with the use of different observing systems. When the Northern Hemisphere was used as a verification region, the prediction of skill was rather poor. This is due to the fact that such a large area usually contains regions with excellent forecasts as well as regions with poor forecasts, and does not allow for discrimination between them. However, when regional verifications were used, the ensemble forecast dispersion provided a very good prediction of the quality of the individual forecasts.

  9. Collegiate Aviation and FAA Air Traffic Control.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ruiz, Jose R.; Ruiz, Lorelei E.

    2003-01-01

    Based on a literature review this article describes the Air Traffic-Collegiate Training Initiative (AT-CTI) program, including objectives, the process by which postsecondary institutes become affiliated, advantages of affiliation, and the recruitment and employment of air traffic control graduates by the Federal Aviation Administration. (Contains…

  10. Case history of FAA/SRI wind shear models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schlickenmaier, Herbert

    1987-01-01

    In order to understand the development of the FAA/SRI wind fields, it is important to understand the operating philosophy of the FAA's Wind Shear Program Office. The goal of the office was to ensure an integrated solution to the wind shear problem which addressed three area: ground based equipment and coordination; airborne systems and procedures; and weather prediction. This triply addressed goal was central to the development of the wind fields. The primary user of the wind shear modeling during the FAA's program was airborne simulation. The project requirement was to use wind shear models that resulted from accidents so that effective procedures and/or equipment could be found for hazardous wind shear encounters. The wind shear model development is discussed in detail.

  11. Activities at the FAA aging aircraft NDI validation center

    SciTech Connect

    Shurtleff, W.

    1994-08-01

    Aging Aircraft NDI Validation Center (AANC) was established by the FAA Technical Center (FAATC) at Sandia National Laboratories in August of 1991. The Validation Center supports the inspection portion of the FAA`s National Aging Aircraft Program which was mandated by Congress in the 1988 Aviation Safety Act. The ultimate customers of the AANC include the FAA, airframe and engine manufacturers, airlines, and third party maintenance facilities. One goal of the AANC is to provide independent validation of technologies intended to enhance the structural inspection of aging commuter and transport aircraft. Another goal is to assist in transferring emerging inspection technology from other parts of the FAA`s program to the aircraft industry. The deliverables from both these activities are an assessment of the reliability and cost benefits of an inspection technology as applied to a particular inspection or class of inspections. The validation process consists of a quantitative and systematic assessment of the reliability and cost/benefits on a Nondestructive Inspection (NDI) process. A NDI process is defined as the NDI systems and procedures used for inspections. This includes the NDI operator, inspection environment, and the object being inspected. The phases of the validation process are: 1. Conceptual, 2. Preliminary design, 3. Final design, and 4. Field implementation. The AAANC usually gets involved in the validation process during Phases 2 and 3. The Center supports field trials with a full array of test specimens and established procedures for conducting the trials. Phase 4 reliability includes field trials using independent inspectors either at the Center`s hangar or at outside maintenance facilities. Three activities are summarized below where inspection technology has been validated in the field. These are: (1) eddy current inspection reliability experiment; (2) magneto optic imager validation; and (3) inspection tool improvement.

  12. Evaluating the compliance of Keck's LGSAO automated aircraft protection system with FAA adopted criteria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stomski, Paul J.; Campbell, Randy; Murphy, Thomas W.

    2014-07-01

    The W. M. Keck Observatory (WMKO) applied for and received a determination of no-objection from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for laser guide star adaptive optics (LGS-AO) operations using an automated aircraft protection system (APS) in late 2013. WMKO's APS, named AIRSAFE, uses transponder based aircraft detection (TBAD) to replace human aircraft spotters. The FAA required WMKO to self-certify AIRSAFE compliance with SAE Aerospace Standard 6029A: "Performance Criteria for Laser Control Measures Used for Aviation Safety"[1] (AS- 6029A). AS-6029A prescribes performance and administrative criteria for an APS; essentially, requiring AIRSAFE to adequately protect all types of aircraft, traveling at any speed, altitude, distance and direction reasonably expected in the operating environment. A description of the analysis that comprises this compliance evaluation is the main focus of this paper. Also discussed is the AIRSAFE compliance with AS-6029A administrative criteria that includes characterization of site specific air traffic, failure modes, limitations, operating procedures, preventative maintenance procedures, and periodic system test procedures.

  13. 78 FR 41183 - Federal Aviation Administration

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-07-09

    ... Federal Aviation Administration Meeting: RTCA Program Management Committee AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). ACTION: Notice of RTCA Program Management.... Paige Williams, Management Analyst, NextGen, Business Operations Group, Federal Aviation...

  14. 77 FR 64837 - Federal Aviation Administration

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-10-23

    ... Federal Aviation Administration Fourth Meeting: RTCA Special Committee 227, Standards of Navigation Performance AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). ACTION... 15, 2012. Kathy Hitt, Management Analyst, Business Operations Group, Federal Aviation...

  15. 78 FR 25337 - Federal Aviation Administration

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-04-30

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Agency Information Collection Activities: Requests for Comments; Clearance... Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Notice and request for comments. SUMMARY: In accordance with the...

  16. 32 CFR 728.58 - Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 5 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. 728.58 Section 728.58 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY PERSONNEL MEDICAL AND DENTAL CARE FOR ELIGIBLE PERSONS AT NAVY MEDICAL DEPARTMENT FACILITIES Beneficiaries of Other Federal Agencies § 728.58...

  17. GIS and RDBMS Used with Offline FAA Airspace Databases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clark, J.; Simmons, J.; Scofield, E.; Talbott, B.

    1994-01-01

    A geographic information system (GIS) and relational database management system (RDBMS) were used in a Macintosh environment to access, manipulate, and display off-line FAA databases of airport and navigational aid locations, airways, and airspace boundaries. This proof-of-concept effort used data available from the Adaptation Controlled Environment System (ACES) and Digital Aeronautical Chart Supplement (DACS) databases to allow FAA cartographers and others to create computer-assisted charts and overlays as reference material for air traffic controllers. These products were created on an engineering model of the future GRASP (GRaphics Adaptation Support Position) workstation that will be used to make graphics and text products for the Advanced Automation System (AAS), which will upgrade and replace the current air traffic control system. Techniques developed during the prototyping effort have shown the viability of using databases to create graphical products without the need for an intervening data entry step.

  18. 14 CFR 13.11 - Administrative disposition of certain violations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES INVESTIGATIVE AND ENFORCEMENT PROCEDURES Administrative Actions § 13.11... enforcement action, an appropriate official of the FAA field office responsible for processing the enforcement case or other appropriate FAA official may take administrative action in disposition of the case....

  19. 14 CFR 13.11 - Administrative disposition of certain violations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES INVESTIGATIVE AND ENFORCEMENT PROCEDURES Administrative Actions § 13.11... enforcement action, an appropriate official of the FAA field office responsible for processing the enforcement case or other appropriate FAA official may take administrative action in disposition of the case....

  20. Superfund record of decision (EPA Region 2): FAA Technical Center, Operable Unit 5, Atlantic County, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ, August 17, 1994

    SciTech Connect

    1995-03-01

    The decision document presents the no further action decision for Area I, the Former Incinerator Building location, and Area Q, the Fire Station Area, at the FAA Technical Center, Atlantic City International Airport, New Jersey. The Federal Aviation Administration and EPA have determined that no remedial actions are necessary at Areas I and Q to ensure protection of human health and the environment.

  1. 14 CFR 13.234 - Petition to reconsider or modify a final decision and order of the FAA decisionmaker on appeal.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Petition to reconsider or modify a final decision and order of the FAA decisionmaker on appeal. 13.234 Section 13.234 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES INVESTIGATIVE AND...

  2. A Survey of the Aircraft Maintenance Industry to Solicit Perceptions Regarding the Effectiveness of Recent Graduates of F.A.A. Approved Maintenance Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Brian, Benjamin H.

    A study examined the perceptions of employers in the aircraft maintenance industry regarding the effectiveness of recent graduates of Federal Aeronautics Administration (FAA)-approved maintenance schools. Of the 100 employers who were contacted, 68 returned usable surveys. Based on responses, it was concluded that the views of employers in the…

  3. Ramifications of the recent FAA rule for windshear systems on the development of forward-looking systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adamson, H. Patrick

    1990-01-01

    The recent Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) rule requiring windshear systems with flight guidance may have severe ramifications for the development of infrared and other forward-looking systems. The industry needs to have and can have a more cost effective option through the use of a forward-looking system with a reactive backup instead of a reactive system with flight guidance. However, because of the short time for compliance with the new FAA rule, it is possible that existing transport aircraft will be in full compliance before a comprehensive investigation of all forward-looking systems can be completed. If this occurs, it is possible that the market for forward-looking systems will be severely reduced, thereby eliminating the economic incentive to develop these much needed systems. Thus, to assure that this option is available for the airlines, it beehoves the industry to immediately support an in-service evaluation of all available forward-looking systems.

  4. Evaluation of NCAR Icing/SLD Forecasts, Tools and Techniques Used During The 1998 NASA SLD Flight Season

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bernstein, Ben C.

    2001-01-01

    Supercooled Large Droplet (SLD) icing conditions were implicated in at least one recent aircraft crash, and have been associated with other aircraft incidents. Inflight encounters with SLD can result in ice accreting on unprotected areas of the wing where it can not be removed. Because this ice can adversely affect flight characteristics of some aircraft, there has been concern about flight safety in these conditions. The FAA held a conference on in-flight icing in 1996 where the state of knowledge concerning SLD was explored. One outcome of these meetings was an identified need to acquire SLD flight research data, particularly in the Great Lakes Region. The flight research data was needed by the FAA to develop a better understanding of the meteorological characteristics associated with SLD and facilitate an assessment of existing aircraft icing certification regulations with respect to SLD. In response to this need, NASA, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) conducted a cooperative icing flight research program to acquire SLD flight research data. The NASA Glenn Research Center's Twin Otter icing research aircraft was flown throughout the Great Lakes region during the winters of 1996-97 and 1997-98 to acquire SLD icing and meteorological data. The NASA Twin Otter was instrumented to measure cloud microphysical properties (particle size, LWC (Liquid Water Content), temperature, etc.), capture images of wing and tail ice accretion, and then record the resultant effect on aircraft performance due to the ice accretion. A satellite telephone link enabled the researchers onboard the Twin Otter to communicate with NCAR meteorologists. who provided real-time guidance into SLD icing conditions. NCAR meteorologists also provided preflight SLD weather forecasts that were used to plan the research flights, and served as on-board researchers. This document contains an evaluation of the tools and techniques NCAR

  5. FAA/NASA Joint University Program for Air Transportation Research, 1992-1993

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morrell, Frederick R. (Compiler)

    1994-01-01

    The research conducted during the academic year 1992-1993 under the FAA/NASA sponsored Joint University Program for Air Transportation Research is summarized. The year end review was held at Ohio University, Athens, Ohio, 17-18 June 1993. The Joint University Program is a coordinated set of three grants sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration and NASA Langley Research Center, one each with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Ohio University, and Princeton University. Completed works, status reports, and annotated bibliographies are presented for research topics, which include navigation, guidance, and control theory and practice, aircraft performance, human factors and air traffic management. An overview of the year's activities for each university is also presented.

  6. FAA/NASA Joint University Program for Air Transportation Research: 1993-1994

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hueschen, Richard M. (Compiler)

    1995-01-01

    This report summarizes the research conducted during the academic year 1993-1994 under the NASA/FAA sponsored Joint University Program for Air Transportation Research. The year end review was held at Ohio University, Athens, Ohio, July 14-15, 1994. The Joint University Program is a coordinated set of three grants sponsored by NASA Langley Research Center and the Federal Aviation Administration, one each with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (NGL-22-009-640), Ohio University (NGR-36-009-017), and Princeton University (NGL-31-001-252). Completed works, status reports, and annotated bibliographies are presented for research topics which include navigation, guidance and control theory and practice, aircraft performance, human factors, and expert systems concepts applied to aircraft and airport operations. An overview of the year's activities for each university is also presented.

  7. 14 CFR 93.32 - Administrative provisions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... Chicago O'Hare International Airport § 93.32 Administrative provisions. (a) The FAA will assign, by random lottery, withdrawal priority numbers for the recall priority of Arrival Authorizations at O'Hare....

  8. 14 CFR 93.32 - Administrative provisions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... Chicago O'Hare International Airport § 93.32 Administrative provisions. (a) The FAA will assign, by random lottery, withdrawal priority numbers for the recall priority of Arrival Authorizations at O'Hare....

  9. Time Relevance of Convective Weather Forecast for Air Traffic Automation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chan, William N.

    2006-01-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is handling nearly 120,000 flights a day through its Air Traffic Management (ATM) system and air traffic congestion is expected to increse substantially over the next 20 years. Weather-induced impacts to throughput and efficiency are the leading cause of flight delays accounting for 70% of all delays with convective weather accounting for 60% of all weather related delays. To support the Next Generation Air Traffic System goal of operating at 3X current capacity in the NAS, ATC decision support tools are being developed to create advisories to assist controllers in all weather constraints. Initial development of these decision support tools did not integrate information regarding weather constraints such as thunderstorms and relied on an additional system to provide that information. Future Decision Support Tools should move towards an integrated system where weather constraints are factored into the advisory of a Decision Support Tool (DST). Several groups such at NASA-Ames, Lincoln Laboratories, and MITRE are integrating convective weather data with DSTs. A survey of current convective weather forecast and observation data show they span a wide range of temporal and spatial resolutions. Short range convective observations can be obtained every 5 mins with longer range forecasts out to several days updated every 6 hrs. Today, the short range forecasts of less than 2 hours have a temporal resolution of 5 mins. Beyond 2 hours, forecasts have much lower temporal. resolution of typically 1 hour. Spatial resolutions vary from 1km for short range to 40km for longer range forecasts. Improving the accuracy of long range convective forecasts is a major challenge. A report published by the National Research Council states improvements for convective forecasts for the 2 to 6 hour time frame will only be achieved for a limited set of convective phenomena in the next 5 to 10 years. Improved longer range forecasts will be probabilistic

  10. An Investigation Into Criteria Commonly Used by the FAA to Grant Relief to Part 135 Operators Under FAR Sections: 135.213, 135.219, and/or 135.225

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, Louis J.; Heck, Michael L.; Burgess, Malcolm A.; Stough, H. P. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the criteria commonly used by the FAA to grant waivers, exemptions, or deviations to FAR Part 135, Sections 135.213, 135.219, and 135.225 and the potential impact on Flight Information Services Data Link (FISDL) implementation. These aviation regulations address the requirements for the use of weather reports or forecasts when conducting operations under FAR Part 135. In this study a literature search was conducted to obtain historical records of requests for relief from the 3 FAR sections under consideration. The exemption request records were then analyzed in order to determine the reasons given by the FAA for either granting or denying the request. In addition, FAA personnel and Part 135 operators were interviewed to determine the procedures used for satisfying the requirements of the 3 FAR sections.

  11. Potassium determinations using SEM, FAAS and XRF: some experimental notes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liritzis, I.; et al.

    The calibration of Scanning Electron Microscopy coupled with Energy Dispersive X- Rays Spec-trometry (SEM-EDS) for elemental quantitative analysis is an important task for characterization, provenance and absolute dating purposes. In particular the potassium determination is an im-portant contributor to dose rate assessments in luminescence and Electron Spin Resonance (ESR) dating. Here a SEM-EDX is calibrated on different archaeological and geoarchaeological materials against standard laboratory samples as well as measured by micro X-Rays Fluorescence (μXRF) and flame atomic absorption spectroscopy (FAAS) techniques. A common linear relationship is obtained for most elements and certain rock types used and two clear linear regressions for two types of rocks; one for granite, diorite, microgranite and sediments and another ceramic sherds, soils, marble schists, breccia. Such linear regressions become readily available for a future fast, efficient and accu-rate way of potassium determination.

  12. NASA/FAA experiments concerning helicopter IFR airworthiness criteria

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lebacqz, J. V.

    1983-01-01

    A sequence of ground and flight simulation experiments was conducted as part of a joint NASA/FAA program to investigate helicopter instrument flight rules (IFR) airworthiness criteria. The first six of these experiments are described and the results summarized. Five of the experiments were conducted on large amplitude motion base simulators; V/STOLAND UH-1H variable stability helicopter was used in the flight experiment. Airworthiness implications of selected variables that were investigated across all of the experiments are discussed, including the level of longitudinal static stability, the type of stability and control augmentation, the addition of flight director displays, and the type of instrument approach task. Among the specific results reviewed are the adequacy of neutral longitudinal statics for dual pilot approaches and the requirement for pitch and roll attitude stabilization in the stability and control augmentation system to achieve flying qualities evaluated as satisfactory.

  13. Use of Ground Penetrating Radar at the FAA's National Airport Pavement Test Facility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Injun, Song

    2015-04-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in the United States has used a ground-coupled Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) at the National Airport Pavement Test Facility (NAPTF) since 2005. One of the primary objectives of the testing at the facility is to provide full-scale pavement response and failure information for use in airplane landing gear design and configuration studies. During the traffic testing at the facility, a GSSI GPR system was used to develop new procedures for monitoring Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) pavement density changes that is directly related to pavement failure. After reviewing current setups for data acquisition software and procedures for identifying different pavement layers, dielectric constant and pavement thickness were selected as dominant parameters controlling HMA properties provided by GPR. A new methodology showing HMA density changes in terms of dielectric constant variations, called dielectric sweep test, was developed and applied in full-scale pavement test. The dielectric constant changes were successfully monitored with increasing airplane traffic numbers. The changes were compared to pavement performance data (permanent deformation). The measured dielectric constants based on the known HMA thicknesses were also compared with computed dielectric constants using an equation from ASTM D4748-98 Standard Test Method for Determining the Thickness of Bound Pavement Layers Using Short-Pulse Radar. Six inches diameter cylindrical cores were taken after construction and traffic testing for the HMA layer bulk specific gravity. The measured bulk specific gravity was also compared to monitor HMA density changes caused by aircraft traffic conditions. Additionally this presentation will review the applications of the FAA's ground-coupled GPR on embedded rebar identification in concrete pavement, sewer pipes in soil, and gage identifications in 3D plots.

  14. Federal Aviation Administration aging aircraft nondestructive inspection research plan

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Seher, Chris C.

    1992-01-01

    This paper highlights the accomplishments and plans of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for the development of improved nondestructive evaluation (NDE) equipment, procedures, and training. The role of NDE in aircraft safety and the need for improvement are discussed. The FAA program participants, and coordination of activities within the program and with relevant organizations outside the program are also described.

  15. 76 FR 70529 - Designation of Administrative Judges and Delegation of Authority

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-11-14

    ... activities; g. To utilize voluntary alternative dispute resolution (ADR) methods as the primary means of... (FAA) gives notice that the FAA Administrator has: designated the Director and Dispute Resolution Officers of the Office of Dispute Resolution for Acquisition (ODRA) as Administrative Judges for...

  16. Fishing Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    ROFFS stands for Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc. Roffer combines satellite and computer technology with oceanographic information from several sources to produce frequently updated charts sometimes as often as 30 times a day showing clues to the location of marlin, sailfish, tuna, swordfish and a variety of other types. Also provides customized forecasts for racing boats and the shipping industry along with seasonal forecasts that allow the marine industry to formulate fishing strategies based on foreknowledge of the arrival and departure times of different fish. Roffs service exemplifies the potential for benefits to marine industries from satellite observations. Most notable results are reduced search time and substantial fuel savings.

  17. Fracture Analysis of the FAA/NASA Wide Stiffened Panels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Seshadri, B. R.; Newman, J. C., Jr.; Dawicke, D. S.; Young, R. D.

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents the fracture analyses conducted on the FAA/NASA stiffened and unstiffened panels using the STAGS (STructural Analysis of General Shells) code with the critical crack-tip-opening angle (CTOA) fracture criterion. The STAGS code with the "plane-strain" core option was used in all analyses. Previous analyses of wide, flat panels have shown that the high-constraint conditions around a crack front, like plane strain, has to be modeled in order for the critical CTOA fracture criterion to predict wide panel failures from small laboratory tests. In the present study, the critical CTOA value was determined from a wide (unstiffened) panel with anti-buckling guides. The plane-strain core size was estimated from previous fracture analyses and was equal to about the sheet thickness. Rivet flexibility and stiffener failure was based on methods and criteria, like that currently used in industry. STAGS and the CTOA criterion were used to predict load-against-crack extension for the wide panels with a single crack and multiple-site damage cracking at many adjacent rivet holes. Analyses were able to predict stable crack growth and residual strength within a few percent (5%) of stiffened panel tests results but over predicted the buckling failure load on an unstiffened panel with a single crack by 10%.

  18. Fracture Analysis of the FAA/NASA Wide Stiffened Panels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Seshadri, B. R.; Newman, J. C., Jr.; Dawicke, D. S.; Young, R. D.

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents the fracture analyses conducted on the FAA/NASA stiffened and unstiffened panels using the STAGS (STructural Analysis of General Shells) code with the critical crack-tip-opening angle (CTOA) fracture criterion. The STAGS code with the "plane-strain" core option was used in all analyses. Previous analyses of wide, flat panels have shown that the high-constraint conditions around a crack front, like plane strain, has to be modeled in order for the critical CTOA fracture criterion to predict wide panel failures from small laboratory tests. In the present study, the critical CTOA value was determined from a wide (unstiffened) panel with anti-buckling guides. The plane-strain core size was estimated from previous fracture analyses and was equal to about the sheet thickness. Rivet flexibility and stiffener failure was based on methods and criteria, like that currently used in industry. STAGS and the CTOA criterion were used to predict load-against-crack extension for the wide panels with a single crack and multiple-site damage cracking at many adjacent rivet holes. Analyses were able to predict stable crack growth and residual strength with a few percent (5%) of stiffened panel tests results but over predicted the buckling failure load on a unstiffened panel with a single crack by 10%.

  19. Controlled impact demonstration seat/cabin restraint systems: FAA

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, R. A.

    1986-01-01

    The FAA restraint system experiments consisted of 24 standard and modified seats, 2 standard galleys and 2 standard overhead compartments. Under the controlled impact demonstration (CID) program, the experimental objective was to demonstrate the effectiveness of individual restraint system designs when exposed to a survivable air-to-ground impact condition. What researchers were looking for was the performance exhibited by standard and modified designs, performance differences resulting from their installed cabin location, and interrelating performance demonstrated by test article and attaching floor and/or fuselage structure. The other restraint system experiment consisted of 2 standard overhead stowage compartments and 2 galley modules. Again, researchers were concerned with the retention of stowed equipment and carry-on articles. The overhead compartments were loaded with test weights up to their maximum capacity, and each of the galleys was filled with test articles: aft with normal galley equipment, forward with hazardous material test packages. A breakdown of instrumentation and distribution is given beginning with 11 instrumented type anthropomorphic dummies and 185 sensors which provided for acceleration and load measurements at the various experiment and associated structure locations. The onboard cameras provided additional coverage of these experiments, including the areas of cabin which were not instrumented. Test results showing the window-side leg forces versus pulse duration are given.

  20. 78 FR 25524 - Federal Aviation Administration

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-05-01

    ... TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Notice of Request To Release Airport Property AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Notice of Intent to Rule on Request to Release Airport Property..., Airports Compliance Specialist, Federal Aviation Administration, Airports Division, ACE- 610C, 901...

  1. 75 FR 6433 - Federal Aviation Administration

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-02-09

    ...The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) proposes to fund, construct, and operate an Airport Surveillance Radar, Model 9 (ASR-9) to serve the western airspace of O'Hare International Airport (ORD), Chicago, IL. The FAA's preferred alternative is to install the ASR-9 at a site near the corner of Kress and Western Roads on the southeast side of DuPage Airport, in western DuPage County. The......

  2. 14 CFR 61.41 - Flight training received from flight instructors not certificated by the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... the FAA. (a) A person may credit flight training toward the requirements of a pilot certificate or... Armed Force in a program for training military pilots of either— (i) The United States; or (ii)...

  3. 14 CFR 61.41 - Flight training received from flight instructors not certificated by the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... the FAA. (a) A person may credit flight training toward the requirements of a pilot certificate or... Armed Force in a program for training military pilots of either— (i) The United States; or (ii)...

  4. 14 CFR 11.73 - How does FAA process petitions for rulemaking?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... safety or security concerns you raise; (2) The priority of other issues the FAA must deal with; and (3... dismiss your petition. Your comments and arguments for a rule change will be placed in a database,...

  5. 14 CFR 11.73 - How does FAA process petitions for rulemaking?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... safety or security concerns you raise; (2) The priority of other issues the FAA must deal with; and (3... dismiss your petition. Your comments and arguments for a rule change will be placed in a database,...

  6. Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC): NASA to FAA Research Transition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Engelland, Shawn; Davis, Thomas J.

    2013-01-01

    departure runway assignments to the Center scheduling tool. The PDRC concept also incorporates earlier NASA and FAA research into automation-assisted CFR coordination. The PDRC concept reduces uncertainty by automatically communicating coordinated release times with seconds-level precision enabling TMCs and FLMs to work with target times rather than windows. NASA has developed a PDRC prototype system that integrates the Center's TMA system with a research prototype Tower decision support tool. A two-phase field evaluation was conducted at NASA's North Texas Research Station in Dallas-Fort Worth. The field evaluation validated the PDRC concept and demonstrated reduced release time uncertainty while being used for tactical departure scheduling of more than 230 operational flights over 29 weeks of operations.

  7. Federal Aviation Administration retained savings program proposal

    SciTech Connect

    Hostick, D.J.; Larson, L.L.; Hostick, C.J.

    1998-03-01

    Federal legislation allows federal agencies to retain up to 50% of the savings associated with implementing energy efficiency and water conservation measures and practices. Given budget pressures to reduce expenditures, the use of retained savings to fund additional projects represents a source of funds outside of the traditional budget cycle. The Southwest Region Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has tasked Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to develop a model retained savings program for Southwest Region FAA use and as a prototype for consideration by the FAA. PNNL recommends the following steps be taken in developing a Southwest Region FAA retained savings program: Establish a retained savings mechanism. Determine the level at which the retained savings should be consolidated into a fund. The preliminary recommendation is to establish a revolving efficiency loan fund at the regional level. Such a mechanism allows some consolidation of savings to fund larger projects, while maintaining a sense of facility ownership in that the funds will remain within the region.

  8. Mutations of the Fanconi anemia group A gene (FAA) in Italian patients.

    PubMed Central

    Savino, M; Ianzano, L; Strippoli, P; Ramenghi, U; Arslanian, A; Bagnara, G P; Joenje, H; Zelante, L; Savoia, A

    1997-01-01

    Fanconi anemia (FA) is an autosomal recessive disease characterized by progressive pancytopenia, congenital malformations, and predisposition to acute myeloid leukemia. At least five complementation groups (FA-A-FA-E) have been identified. The relative prevalence of FA-A has been estimated at an average of approximately 65% but may widely vary according to ethnic background. In Italy, 11 of 12 patients analyzed by cell-fusion studies were assigned to group FA-A, suggesting an unusually high relative prevalence of this FA subtype in patients of Italian ancestry. We have screened the 43 exons of the FAA gene and their flanking intronic sequences in 38 Italian FA patients, using RNA-SSCP. Ten different mutations were detected: three nonsense and one missense substitutions, four putative splice mutations, an insertion, and a duplication. Most of the mutations are expected to cause a premature termination of the FAA protein at various sites throughout the molecule. Four protein variants were also found, three of which were polymorphisms. The missense mutation D1359Y, not found in chromosomes from healthy unrelated individuals, was responsible for a local alteration of hydrophobicity in the FAA protein, and it was likely to be pathogenic. Thus, the mutations so far encountered in the FAA gene are essentially all different. Since screening based on the analysis of single exons by genomic DNA amplification apparently detects only a minority of the mutations, methods designed to detect alterations in the genomic structure of the gene or in the FAA polypeptide may be helpful in the identification of FAA mutations. Images Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 PMID:9399890

  9. Developing air quality forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Pius; Saylor, Rick; Meagher, James

    2012-05-01

    Third International Workshop on Air Quality Forecasting Research; Potomac, Maryland, 29 November to 1 December 2011 Elevated concentrations of both near-surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter smaller than 2.5 micrometers in diameter have been implicated in increased mortality and other human health impacts. In light of these known influences on human health, many governments around the world have instituted air quality forecasting systems to provide their citizens with advance warning of impending poor air quality so that they can take actions to limit exposure. In an effort to improve the performance of air quality forecasting systems and provide a forum for the exchange of the latest research in air quality modeling, the International Workshop on Air Quality Forecasting Research (IWAQFR) was established in 2009 and is cosponsored by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Environment Canada (EC), and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The steering committee for IWAQFR's establishment was composed of Véronique Bouchet, Mike Howe, and Craig Stoud (EC); Greg Carmichael (University of Iowa); Paula Davidson and Jim Meagher (NOAA); and Liisa Jalkanen (WMO). The most recent workshop took place in Maryland.

  10. Forecasting Future Social Needs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abt, Clark C.

    1971-01-01

    Describes briefly why social forecasting is easier than technological forecasting, offers four approaches to social forecasting (judgment, extrapolation, speculation, analysis), and suggests a procedure recommended for social forecasting. (CJ)

  11. Reasonable Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Kelley R.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents a sample legal battle that illustrates school officials' "reasonable forecasts" of substantial disruption in the school environment. In 2006, two students from a Texas high school came to school carrying purses decorated with images of the Confederate flag. The school district has a zero-tolerance policy for clothing or…

  12. TRAVEL FORECASTER

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mauldin, L. E.

    1994-01-01

    Business travel planning within an organization is often a time-consuming task. Travel Forecaster is a menu-driven, easy-to-use program which plans, forecasts cost, and tracks actual vs. planned cost for business-related travel of a division or branch of an organization and compiles this information into a database to aid the travel planner. The program's ability to handle multiple trip entries makes it a valuable time-saving device. Travel Forecaster takes full advantage of relational data base properties so that information that remains constant, such as per diem rates and airline fares (which are unique for each city), needs entering only once. A typical entry would include selection with the mouse of the traveler's name and destination city from pop-up lists, and typed entries for number of travel days and purpose of the trip. Multiple persons can be selected from the pop-up lists and multiple trips are accommodated by entering the number of days by each appropriate month on the entry form. An estimated travel cost is not required of the user as it is calculated by a Fourth Dimension formula. With this information, the program can produce output of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for either organization or sub-entity of an organization; or produce outputs of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for international-only travel. It will also provide monthly and cumulative formats of planned vs. actual outputs in data or graph form. Travel Forecaster users can do custom queries to search and sort information in the database, and it can create custom reports with the user-friendly report generator. Travel Forecaster 1.1 is a database program for use with Fourth Dimension Runtime 2.1.1. It requires a Macintosh Plus running System 6.0.3 or later, 2Mb of RAM and a hard disk. The standard distribution medium for this package is one 3.5 inch 800K Macintosh format diskette. Travel Forecaster was developed in 1991. Macintosh is a registered trademark of

  13. Guidelines for Federal Aviation Administration Regional Aviation Education Coordinators and Aviation Education Facilitators.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Strickler, Mervin K., Jr.

    This publication is designed to provide both policy guidance and examples of how to work with various constituencies in planning and carrying out appropriate Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) aviation education activities. Information is provided on the history of aerospace/aviation education, FAA educational materials, aerospace/aviation…

  14. Aviation Maintenance Technology. Course Content Guides. FAA Approved Curriculum.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shrawder, Jack; And Others

    Course content guides are provided for the 30 courses in this aviation maintenance technology curriculum approved by the Federal Aviation Administration. Course titles are physics for technicians; aircraft information, regulations, and procedures; aircraft assembly; fundamentals of aircraft electronics; aircraft electrical components; aircraft…

  15. Forecaster's dilemma: Extreme events and forecast evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lerch, Sebastian; Thorarinsdottir, Thordis; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Gneiting, Tilmann

    2015-04-01

    In discussions of the quality of forecasts in the media and public, attention often focuses on the predictive performance in the case of extreme events. Intuitively, accurate predictions on the subset of extreme events seem to suggest better predictive ability. However, it can be demonstrated that restricting conventional forecast verification methods to subsets of observations might have unexpected and undesired effects and may discredit even the most skillful forecasters. Hand-picking extreme events is incompatible with the theoretical assumptions of established forecast verification methods, thus confronting forecasters with what we refer to as the forecaster's dilemma. For probabilistic forecasts, weighted proper scoring rules provide suitable alternatives for forecast evaluation with an emphasis on extreme events. Using theoretical arguments, simulation experiments and a case study on probabilistic forecasts of wind speed over Germany, we illustrate the forecaster's dilemma and the use of weighted proper scoring rules.

  16. A perspective on the FAA approval process: Integrating rotorcraft displays, controls and workload

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Green, David L.; Hart, Jake; Hwoschinsky, Peter

    1993-01-01

    The FAA is responsible for making the determination that a helicopter is safe for IFR operations in the National Airspace System (NAS). This involves objective and subjective evaluations of cockpit displays, flying qualities, procedures and human factors as they affect performance and workload. After all of the objective evaluations are completed, and all Federal Regulations have been met, FAA pilots make the final subjective judgement as to suitability for use by civil pilots in the NAS. The paper uses the flying qualities and pilot workload characteristics of a small helicopter to help examine the FAA pilot's involvement in this process. The result highlights the strengths of the process and its importance to the approval of new aircraft and equipments for civil IFR helicopter applications. The paper also identifies opportunities for improvement.

  17. Executive skills 21: a forecast of leadership skills and associated competencies required by naval hospital administrators into the 21st century.

    PubMed

    Sentell, J W; Finstuen, K

    1998-01-01

    Those in the Naval Medical Department are experiencing an exciting time of bridled chaos and creative change. Many mid-career officers are uncertain of the leadership behaviors and skills that will be necessary for successful managerial careers. Changes in the method of health care delivery of this nation combined with the reengineering of the armed forces' world-wide mission has driven military medical leaders to expand their professional skills, knowledge, and abilities beyond the clinical sciences. This research identifies the most critical domains in the science of health care administration and differentiates and ranks job skill, knowledge, and ability requirements that will be necessary for successful health care management into the 21st century. Top Naval hospital executives responded to two iterations of a Delphi inquiry. These medical leaders identified 106 unique issues that were content-analyzed into nine domains by a neutral, expert panel. Domains, in order of ranked importance, were leadership, health care delivery systems, cost-finance, technology, accessibility, professional staff relations, marketing, quality-risk management, and ethics. In the second Delphi iteration, hospital executives reviewed domain results and rated identified job requirements on their required job importance. The top-10 rated skills, knowledge, and abilities are reported. Results indicated that although a business orientation is needed for organizational survival, an emphasis on person-oriented skills, knowledge, and abilities is required for future success as a health care administrator in the Naval health care system. PMID:9465563

  18. Communicating Environmental Uncertainty: The Nature of Weather Forecasts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Travis, Richard W.; Riebsame, William E.

    1979-01-01

    Traces the path of weather forecasts from the time they are made by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration until the time they are received by the public through the mass media. The purpose of the article is to provide geography teachers with basic information on weather forecasts, interpretation of forecast terms, and indications…

  19. FAA Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) operated by Sandia National Laboratories.

    SciTech Connect

    Roach, Dennis Patrick; Hartman, Roger D.

    2010-09-01

    Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) objectives are: (1) Enhance aircraft safety and reliability; (2) Aid developing advanced aircraft designs and maintenance techniques; (3) Provide our customers with comprehensive, independent, and quantitative/qualitative evaluations of new and enhanced inspection, maintenance, and repair techniques; (4) Facilitate transferring effective technologies into the aviation industry; (5) Support FAA rulemaking process by providing guidance on content & necessary tools to meet requirements or recommendations of FARs, ADs, ACs, SBs, SSIDs, CPCP, and WFD; and (6) Coordinate with and respond to Airworthiness Assurance Working Group (AAWG) in support of FAA Aviation Rulemaking Advisory Committee (ARAC).

  20. Forecast Mekong

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Turnipseed, D. Phil

    2011-01-01

    Forecast Mekong is part of the U.S. Department of State's Lower Mekong Initiative, which was launched in 2009 by Secretary Hillary Clinton and the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam to enhance partnerships between the U.S. and the Lower Mekong River countries in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is working in close cooperation with the U.S. Department of State to use research and data from the Lower Mekong Basin to provide hands-on results that will help decision makers in Lower Mekong River countries in the planning and design for restoration, conservation, and management efforts in the basin.

  1. 78 FR 63276 - Interim Policy, FAA Review of Solar Energy System Projects on Federally Obligated Airports

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-10-23

    ... for measuring ocular impact, the required analysis tool, and the obligations of the Airport Sponsor... making available free-of- charge the Solar Glare Hazard Analysis Tool (SGHAT). The SGHAT was designed to... Alteration. Standard for Measuring Ocular Impact FAA adopts the Solar Glare Hazard Analysis Plot shown...

  2. The genomic organization of the Fanconi anemia group A (FAA) gene

    SciTech Connect

    Ianzano, L.; Centra, M.; Savino, M.

    1997-05-01

    Fanconi anemia (FA) is a genetically heterogeneous disease involving at least five genes on the basis of complementation analysis (FAA to FAE). The FAA gene has been recently isolated by two independent approaches, positional and functional cloning. In the present study we describe the genomic structure of the FAA gene. The gene contains 43 exons spanning approximately 80 kb as determined by the alignment of four cosmids and the fine localization of the first and the last exons in restriction fragments of these clones. Exons range from 34 to 188 bp. All but three of the splice sites were consistent with the ag-gt rule. We also describe three alternative splicing events in cDNA clones that result in the loss of exon 37, a 23-bp deletion at the 5{prime} end of exon 41. Sequence analysis of the 5{prime} region upstream of the putative transcription start site showed no obvious TATA and CAAT boxes, but did show a GC-rich region, typical of housekeeping genes. Knowledge of the structure of the FAA gene will provide an invaluable resource for the discovery of mutations in the gene that accounts for about 60-66% of FA patients. 24 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  3. Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA Conference on Fibrous Composites in Structural Design, volume 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Soderquist, Joseph R. (Compiler); Neri, Lawrence M. (Compiler); Bohon, Herman L. (Compiler)

    1992-01-01

    This publication contains the proceedings of the Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA conference on Fibrous Composites in structural Design. Presentations were made in the following areas of composite structural design: perspectives in composites; design methodology; design applications; design criteria; supporting technology; damage tolerance; and manufacturing.

  4. Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA Conference on Fibrous Composites in Structural Design, volume 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Soderquist, Joseph R. (Compiler); Neri, Lawrence M. (Compiler); Bohon, Herman L. (Compiler)

    1992-01-01

    This publication contains the proceedings of the Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA Conference on Fibrous Composites in Structural Design held at Lake Tahoe, Nevada, during 4-7 Nov. 1991. Presentations were made in the following areas of composite structural design: perspectives in composites, design methodology, design applications, design criteria, supporting technology, damage tolerance, and manufacturing.

  5. Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA Conference on Fibrous Composites in Structural Design, volume 3

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Soderquist, Joseph R. (Compiler); Neri, Lawrence M. (Compiler); Bohon, Herman L. (Compiler)

    1992-01-01

    This publication contains the proceedings of the Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA Conference on Fibrous Composites in Structural Design held at Lake Tahoe, Nevada, during 4-7 Nov. 1991. Presentations were made in the following areas of composite structural design: perspectives in composites, design methodology, design applications, design criteria, supporting technology, damage tolerance, and manufacturing.

  6. 14 CFR 193.9 - Will the FAA ever disclose information that is designated as protected under this part?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... when withholding it would not be consistent with the FAA's safety and security responsibilities, as... part to correct a condition that compromises safety or security, if that condition continues... information provided under this part would not be consistent with the FAA's safety and...

  7. 49 CFR 23.45 - What are the requirements for submitting overall goal information to the FAA?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... goal information to the FAA? 23.45 Section 23.45 Transportation Office of the Secretary of... Efforts, and Counting § 23.45 What are the requirements for submitting overall goal information to the FAA... approval. Your first set of overall goals meeting the requirements of this subpart are due on the...

  8. 14 CFR 11.29 - May FAA change its regulations without first issuing an ANPRM or NPRM?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... first issuing an ANPRM or NPRM? 11.29 Section 11.29 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION... General § 11.29 May FAA change its regulations without first issuing an ANPRM or NPRM? The FAA normally... repeal regulations without first issuing an ANPRM or NPRM in the following situations: (a) We may issue...

  9. Survey: Federal Aviation Administration National Communication Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    The National Communication (NATCOM) Center (commonly known as the FAA Weather Message Switching Center), is a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) facility with responsibility for providing communication switching services to the National Weather Service (NWS), the FAA, commercial and private flight organizations under the auspices of the FAA, and DoD. Data handled by NATCOM include weather data, flight plans, and Notices to Airmen (NOTAMS) on both national and international networks. The communications and data management functions are handled through four computer-controlled communication networks designated as WMSC, AFTN, A-BDIS, and NASNET. The functions of these networks are discussed with emphasis on those networks that support the different elements of the NWS. The primary network of concern to NASA, the WMSC (Weather Message Switching Center) network, performs approximately 60 percent of its work for the NWS, 20 percent for the State Department, and 20 percent for the FAA. This document discusses the current and future systems capabilities and workload of NATCOM in terms of new roles.

  10. Comparison of predicted engine core noise with proposed FAA helicopter noise certification requirements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    von Glahn, U.; Groesbeck, D.

    1981-05-01

    Calculated engine core noise levels, based on NASA-Lewis prediction procedures, for five representative helicopter engines are compared with measured total helicopter noise levels and proposed FAA helicopter noise certification requirements. Comparisons are made for level flyover and approach procedures. The measured noise levels are generally significantly greater than those predicted for the core noise levels, except for the Sikorsky S-61 and S-64 helicopters. However, the predicted engine core noise levels are generally at or within 3 dB of the proposed FAA noise rules. Consequently, helicopter engine core noise can be a significant contributor to the overall helicopter noise signature and, at this time, will provide a limiting floor to a further decrease in future noise regulations.

  11. Comparison of predicted engine core noise with proposed FAA helicopter noise certification requirements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vonglahn, U.; Groesbeck, D. E.

    1981-09-01

    Calculated engine core noise levels, based on NASA-Lewis prediction procedures, for five representative helicopter engines are compared with measured total helicopter noise levels and proposed FAA helicopter noise certification requirements. Comparisons are made for level flyover and approach procedures. The measured noise levels are generally significantly greater than those predicted for the core noise levels, except for Sikorsky S-61 and S-64 helicopters. However, the predicted engine core noise levels are generally at or within 3 db of the proposed FAA noise rules. Consequently, helicopter engine core noise can be a significant contributor to the overall helicopter noise signature and, at this time, will provide a limiting floor to a further decrease in future noise regulations.

  12. Extraction of nickel from edible oils with a complexing agent prior to determination by FAAS.

    PubMed

    Tokay, Feyzullah; Bağdat, Sema

    2016-04-15

    In the present work, a new extraction method for separation of nickel from edible oils and determination by FAAS is reported. This method is based on extraction of Ni(II) ions from the oil to aqueous phase with N,N'-bis(4-methoxysalicylidene) ethylenediamine (MSE) and determination by FAAS. Properties of the complex formed between MSE and Ni(II) were investigated spectrophotometrically. Central composite design (CCD) was utilized for optimization of MSE to oil, stirring time and temperature, which were 0.97 mL g(-1), 15.4 min, and 29.7°C, respectively. The developed method was tested with an oil-based metal standard and the recovery was 93.8±3.9%. The proposed method was applied with five different edible oils. PMID:26616973

  13. Proceedings of the FAA-NASA Symposium on the Continued Airworthiness of Aircraft Structures. Volume 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bigelow, Catherine A. (Compiler)

    1997-01-01

    This publication contains the fifty-two technical papers presented at the FAA-NASA Symposium on the Continued Airworthiness of Aircraft Structures. The symposium, hosted by the FAA Center of Excellence for Computational Modeling of Aircraft Structures at Georgia Institute of Technology, was held to disseminate information on recent developments in advanced technologies to extend the life of high-time aircraft and design longer-life aircraft. Affiliations of the participants included 33% from government agencies and laboratories, 19% from academia, and 48% from industry; in all 240 people were in attendance. Technical papers were selected for presentation at the symposium, after a review of extended abstracts received by the Organizing Committee from a general call for papers.

  14. Proceedings of the FAA-NASA Symposium on the Continued Airworthiness of Aircraft Structures. Volume 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bigelow, Catherine A. (Compiler)

    1997-01-01

    This publication contains the fifty-two technical papers presented at the FAA-NASA Symposium on the Continued Airworthiness of Aircraft Structures. The symposium, hosted by the FAA Center of Excellence for Computational Modeling of Aircraft Structures at Georgia Institute of Technology, was held to disseminate information on recent developments in advanced technologies to extend the life of high-time aircraft and design longer-life aircraft. Affiliations of the participants included 33% from government agencies and laboratories, 19% from academia, and 48% from industry; in all 240 people were in attendance. Technical papers were selected for presentation at the symposium, after a review of extended abstracts received by the Organizing Committee from a general call for papers.

  15. Comparison of predicted engine core noise with proposed FAA helicopter noise certification requirements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vonglahn, U.; Groesbeck, D. E.

    1981-01-01

    Calculated engine core noise levels, based on NASA-Lewis prediction procedures, for five representative helicopter engines are compared with measured total helicopter noise levels and proposed FAA helicopter noise certification requirements. Comparisons are made for level flyover and approach procedures. The measured noise levels are generally significantly greater than those predicted for the core noise levels, except for Sikorsky S-61 and S-64 helicopters. However, the predicted engine core noise levels are generally at or within 3 db of the proposed FAA noise rules. Consequently, helicopter engine core noise can be a significant contributor to the overall helicopter noise signature and, at this time, will provide a limiting floor to a further decrease in future noise regulations.

  16. Digital avionics systems - Overview of FAA/NASA/industry-wide briefing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Larsen, William E.; Carro, Anthony

    1986-01-01

    The effects of incorporating digital technology into the design of aircraft on the airworthiness criteria and certification procedures for aircraft are investigated. FAA research programs aimed at providing data for the functional assessment of aircraft which use digital systems for avionics and flight control functions are discussed. The need to establish testing, assurance assessment, and configuration management technologies to insure the reliability of digital systems is discussed; consideration is given to design verification, system performance/robustness, and validation technology.

  17. Federal Aviation Administration Curriculum Guide for Aviation Magnet Schools Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Strickler, Mervin K., Jr.

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and its predecessor organizations, Civil Aeronautics Agency (CAA) and the Civil Aeronautics Administration (CAA) have pioneered the use of aviation education in working with schools and colleges of the nation to attain their objectives. This publication includes: a brief history of the role of aviation in…

  18. 14 CFR 13.11 - Administrative disposition of certain violations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Administrative disposition of certain violations. 13.11 Section 13.11 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF... enforcement action, an appropriate official of the FAA field office responsible for processing the...

  19. Improved Anvil Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lambert, Winifred C.

    2000-01-01

    This report describes the outcome of Phase 1 of the AMU's Improved Anvil Forecasting task. Forecasters in the 45th Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group have found that anvil forecasting is a difficult task when predicting LCC and FR violations. The purpose of this task is to determine the technical feasibility of creating an anvil-forecasting tool. Work on this study was separated into three steps: literature search, forecaster discussions, and determination of technical feasibility. The literature search revealed no existing anvil-forecasting techniques. However, there appears to be growing interest in anvils in recent years. If this interest continues to grow, more information will be available to aid in developing a reliable anvil-forecasting tool. The forecaster discussion step revealed an array of methods on how better forecasting techniques could be developed. The forecasters have ideas based on sound meteorological principles and personal experience in forecasting and analyzing anvils. Based on the information gathered in the discussions with the forecasters, the conclusion of this report is that it is technically feasible at this time to develop an anvil forecasting technique that will significantly contribute to the confidence in anvil forecasts.

  20. NextGen Technologies on the FAA's Standard Terminal Automation Replacement System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Witzberger, Kevin; Swenson, Harry; Martin, Lynne; Lin, Melody; Cheng, Jinn-Hwei

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the integration, evaluation, and results from a high-fidelity human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulation of key NASA Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration - 1 (ATD- 1) technologies implemented in an enhanced version of the FAA's Standard Terminal Automation Replacement System (STARS) platform. These ATD-1 technologies include: (1) a NASA enhanced version of the FAA's Time-Based Flow Management, (2) a NASA ground-based automation technology known as controller-managed spacing (CMS), and (3) a NASA advanced avionics airborne technology known as flight-deck interval management (FIM). These ATD-1 technologies have been extensively tested in large-scale HITL simulations using general-purpose workstations to study air transportation technologies. These general purpose workstations perform multiple functions and are collectively referred to as the Multi-Aircraft Control System (MACS). Researchers at NASA Ames Research Center and Raytheon collaborated to augment the STARS platform by including CMS and FIM advisory tools to validate the feasibility of integrating these automation enhancements into the current FAA automation infrastructure. NASA Ames acquired three STARS terminal controller workstations, and then integrated the ATD-1 technologies. HITL simulations were conducted to evaluate the ATD-1 technologies when using the STARS platform. These results were compared with the results obtained when the ATD-1 technologies were tested in the MACS environment. Results collected from the numerical data show acceptably minor differences, and, together with the subjective controller questionnaires showing a trend towards preferring STARS, validate the ATD-1/STARS integration.

  1. 14 CFR 11.61 - May I ask FAA to adopt, amend, or repeal a regulation, or grant relief from the requirements of a...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... Code of Federal Regulations (14 CFR) or ask FAA to amend or repeal a current regulation in 14 CFR. (b) Using a petition for exemption, you may ask FAA to grant you relief from current regulations in 14 CFR. ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false May I ask FAA to adopt, amend, or repeal...

  2. Factors Contributing to Financial Aid Administrators' Job Satisfaction: NASFAA 2008 Financial Aid Administrators' Job Satisfaction Survey Results

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators (NJ1), 2008

    2008-01-01

    In what kind of job environment are financial aid administrators (FAA) currently working? How satisfied are they with their jobs? What motivates them and what factors are considered morale dampers? How are financial aid (FA) functions viewed by campus' top administrators? Does FA get similar respect and appreciation from their campus peer offices…

  3. Automated turbulence forecasts for aviation hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharman, R.; Frehlich, R.; Vandenberghe, F.

    2010-09-01

    An operational turbulence forecast system for commercial and aviation use is described that is based on an ensemble of turbulence diagnostics derived from standard NWP model outputs. In the U. S. this forecast product is named GTG (Graphical Turbulence Guidance) and has been described in detail in Sharman et al., WAF 2006. Since turbulence has many sources in the atmosphere, the ensemble approach of combining diagnostics has been shown to provide greater statistical accuracy than the use of a single diagnostic, or of a subgrid tke parameterization. GTG is sponsored by the FAA, and has undergone rigorous accuracy, safety, and usability evaluations. The GTG product is now hosted on NOAA's Aviation Data Service (ADDS), web site (http://aviationweather.gov/), for access by pilots, air traffic controllers, and dispatchers. During this talk the various turbulence diagnostics, their statistical properties, and their relative performance (based on comparisons to observations) will be presented. Importantly, the model output is ɛ1/3 (where ɛ is the eddy dissipation rate), so is aircraft independent. The diagnostics are individually and collectively calibrated so that their PDFs satisfy the expected log normal distribution of ɛ^1/3. Some of the diagnostics try to take into account the role of gravity waves and inertia-gravity waves in the turbulence generation process. Although the current GTG product is based on the RUC forecast model running over the CONUS, it is transitioning to a WRF based product, and in fact WRF-based versions are currently running operationally over Taiwan and has also been implemented for use by the French Navy in climatological studies. Yet another version has been developed which uses GFS model output to provide global turbulence forecasts. Thus the forecast product is available as a postprocessing program for WRF or other model output and provides 3D maps of turbulence likelihood of any region where NWP model data is available. Although the

  4. AN OPERATIONAL EVALUATION OF THE ETA-CMAQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in collaboration with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), are developing an Air Quality Forecasting Program that will eventually result in an operational Nationwide Air Quality Forecasting System. The initial pha...

  5. Computers and Technological Forecasting

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martino, Joseph P.

    1971-01-01

    Forecasting is becoming increasingly automated, thanks in large measure to the computer. It is now possible for a forecaster to submit his data to a computation center and call for the appropriate program. (No knowledge of statistics is required.) (Author)

  6. Evaluation of Flood Forecast and Warning in Elbe river basin - Impact of Forecaster's Strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Danhelka, Jan; Vlasak, Tomas

    2010-05-01

    Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) is responsible for flood forecasting and warning in the Czech Republic. To meet that issue CHMI operates hydrological forecasting systems and publish flow forecast in selected profiles. Flood forecast and warning is an output of system that links observation (flow and atmosphere), data processing, weather forecast (especially NWP's QPF), hydrological modeling and modeled outputs evaluation and interpretation by forecaster. Forecast users are interested in final output without separating uncertainties of separate steps of described process. Therefore an evaluation of final operational forecasts was done for profiles within Elbe river basin produced by AquaLog forecasting system during period 2002 to 2008. Effects of uncertainties of observation, data processing and especially meteorological forecasts were not accounted separately. Forecast of flood levels exceedance (peak over the threshold) during forecasting period was the main criterion as flow increase forecast is of the highest importance. Other evaluation criteria included peak flow and volume difference. In addition Nash-Sutcliffe was computed separately for each time step (1 to 48 h) of forecasting period to identify its change with the lead time. Textual flood warnings are issued for administrative regions to initiate flood protection actions in danger of flood. Flood warning hit rate was evaluated at regions level and national level. Evaluation found significant differences of model forecast skill between forecasting profiles, particularly less skill was evaluated at small headwater basins due to domination of QPF uncertainty in these basins. The average hit rate was 0.34 (miss rate = 0.33, false alarm rate = 0.32). However its explored spatial difference is likely to be influenced also by different fit of parameters sets (due to different basin characteristics) and importantly by different impact of human factor. Results suggest that the practice of interactive

  7. Requirements of Operational Verification of the NWSRFS-ESP Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Imam, B.; Werner, K.; Hartmann, H.; Sorooshian, S.; Pritchard, E.

    2006-12-01

    Forecast verification is the process of determining the quality of forecasts. This requires the utilization of quality measures that summarize one or more aspects of the relationship between forecasts and observations. Technically, the three main objectives of forecast verification are (a) monitoring, (b) improving, and (c) comparing the quality of different forecasting systems. However, users of forecast verification results range from administrators, who want to know the value of investing in forecast system improvement to forecasters and modelers, who want to assess areas of improving their own predictions, to forecast users, who weigh their decision based not only on the forecast but also on the perceived quality of such forecast. Our discussions with several forecasters and hydrologists in charge at various River Forecast Centers (RFCs) indicated that operational hydrologists view verification in a broader sense than their counterparts within the meteorological community. Their view encompasses verification as a possible tool in determining whether a forecast is ready for issuance as an "official" product or that it needs more work. In addition to the common challenges associated with verification of monthly and seasonal probabilistic forecasts. which include determining and obtaining the appropriate size of "forecast-observation" pairs data set, operational verification also requires the consideration of verification strategies for short-term forecasts. Under such condition, the identification of conditional verification (i.e., similar conditions) samples, tracking model states, input, and output, relative to their climatology, and the establishment of links between the forecast issuance, verification, and simulation components of the forecast system become important. In this presentation, we address the impacts of such view on the potential requirements of an operational verification system for the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) component of the

  8. Forecast `97

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, D.

    1996-12-01

    Many lawmakers and environmental professionals would probably like to leave memories of the last year behind them. It would be remembered as the year of daunted expectations -- the year politics derailed the business of the environment. The Republican-controlled Congress had just come roaring out of 1995, the ``revolutionary`` year, only to find itself stymied by a funding stalemate in the first half of 1996. The Clinton/Gore administration found itself labeled ineffectual on the environment by some critics, and intractable on it by others. Luckily, after staring into the budget abyss through the winter of 1995, the political combatants seem to have had a change of heart. Funding for the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was approved with an almost genteel lack of confrontation. If for no other reason, 1997 should seem like a cake walk by comparison. Without many major casting changes after the November elections, the political drama surrounding the environment nonetheless will seem less like a tragedy. Perhaps the issue most emblematic of the problems facing the industry, and the 105th Congress, is Superfund reform. There are few laws as divisive as Superfund that are, at the same time, so critically important to the way an industry does business. Many of the stakeholders in the Superfund reauthorization process think this is the year something will actually get done.

  9. Forecasting Artificial Intelligence Demand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wheeler, David R.; Shelley, Charles

    1986-03-01

    Forecasts are major components of the decision analysis process. When accurate, estimates of future economic activity associated with specific courses of action can correctly set corporate strategy in an uncertain environment. When inaccurate, they can lead to bankruptcy. The basic trouble with most forecasts is that they are not made by forecasters.

  10. An Algorithm Combining for Objective Prediction with Subjective Forecast Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, JunTae; Kim, SooHyun

    2016-04-01

    As direct or post-processed output from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models has begun to show acceptable performance compared with the predictions of human forecasters, many national weather centers have become interested in automatic forecasting systems based on NWP products alone, without intervention from human forecasters. The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) is now developing an automatic forecasting system for dry variables. The forecasts are automatically generated from NWP predictions using a post processing model (MOS). However, MOS cannot always produce acceptable predictions, and sometimes its predictions are rejected by human forecasters. In such cases, a human forecaster should manually modify the prediction consistently at points surrounding their corrections, using some kind of smart tool to incorporate the forecaster's opinion. This study introduces an algorithm to revise MOS predictions by adding a forecaster's subjective forecast information at neighbouring points. A statistical relation between two forecast points - a neighbouring point and a dependent point - was derived for the difference between a MOS prediction and that of a human forecaster. If the MOS prediction at a neighbouring point is updated by a human forecaster, the value at a dependent point is modified using a statistical relationship based on linear regression, with parameters obtained from a one-year dataset of MOS predictions and official forecast data issued by KMA. The best sets of neighbouring points and dependent point are statistically selected. According to verification, the RMSE of temperature predictions produced by the new algorithm was slightly lower than that of the original MOS predictions, and close to the RMSE of subjective forecasts. For wind speed and relative humidity, the new algorithm outperformed human forecasters.

  11. The meta-Gaussian Bayesian Processor of forecasts and associated preliminary experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Fajing; Jiao, Meiyan; Chen, Jing

    2013-04-01

    Public weather services are trending toward providing users with probabilistic weather forecasts, in place of traditional deterministic forecasts. Probabilistic forecasting techniques are continually being improved to optimize available forecasting information. The Bayesian Processor of Forecast (BPF), a new statistical method for probabilistic forecast, can transform a deterministic forecast into a probabilistic forecast according to the historical statistical relationship between observations and forecasts generated by that forecasting system. This technique accounts for the typical forecasting performance of a deterministic forecasting system in quantifying the forecast uncertainty. The meta-Gaussian likelihood model is suitable for a variety of stochastic dependence structures with monotone likelihood ratios. The meta-Gaussian BPF adopting this kind of likelihood model can therefore be applied across many fields, including meteorology and hydrology. The Bayes theorem with two continuous random variables and the normal-linear BPF are briefly introduced. The meta-Gaussian BPF for a continuous predictand using a single predictor is then presented and discussed. The performance of the meta-Gaussian BPF is tested in a preliminary experiment. Control forecasts of daily surface temperature at 0000 UTC at Changsha and Wuhan stations are used as the deterministic forecast data. These control forecasts are taken from ensemble predictions with a 96-h lead time generated by the National Meteorological Center of the China Meteorological Administration, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction during January 2008. The results of the experiment show that the meta-Gaussian BPF can transform a deterministic control forecast of surface temperature from any one of the three ensemble predictions into a useful probabilistic forecast of surface temperature. These probabilistic forecasts quantify the uncertainty

  12. Western U.S. Water Supply Forecasting: A Tradition Evolves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pagano, Thomas; Wood, Andrew; Werner, Kevin; Tama-Sweet, Rashawn

    2014-01-01

    Since 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) and three major river forecasting centers of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) have discontinued a long-standing practice of publishing consensus water supply forecasts in western U.S. river basins.

  13. Forecasting to Consensus Gathering, Delphi Grows Up to College Needs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Judd, Robert C.

    1972-01-01

    What began as a hypothetical approach to educational forecasting is now gaining momentum as a workable consensus gathering technique for all phases of educational administration and planning. (Editor/HS)

  14. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  15. Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wetterhall, Fredrik; Pappenberger, Florian; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Cloke, Hannah; Thielen, Jutta

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

  16. Weather forecasting expert system study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

  17. The Federal Aviation Administration/Massachusetts Institute of Technology (FAA/MIT) Lincoln Laboratory Doppler weather radar program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Evans, James E.

    1988-01-01

    The program focuses on providing real-time information on hazardous aviation weather to end users such as air traffic control and pilots. Existing systems will soon be replaced by a Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD), which will be concerned with detecting such hazards as heavy rain and hail, turbulence, low-altitude wind shear, and mesocyclones and tornadoes. Other systems in process are the Central Weather Processor (CWP), and the terminal Doppler weather radar (TDWR). Weather measurements near Memphis are central to ongoing work, especially in the area of microbursts and wind shear.

  18. Weather assessment and forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    Data management program activities centered around the analyses of selected far-term Office of Applications (OA) objectives, with the intent of determining if significant data-related problems would be encountered and if so what alternative solutions would be possible. Three far-term (1985 and beyond) OA objectives selected for analyses as having potential significant data problems were large-scale weather forecasting, local weather and severe storms forecasting, and global marine weather forecasting. An overview of general weather forecasting activities and their implications upon the ground based data system is provided. Selected topics were specifically oriented to the use of satellites.

  19. THE NEW ENGLAND AIR QUALITY FORECASTING PILOT PROGRAM: DEVELOPMENT OF AN EVALUATION PROTOCOL AND PERFORMANCE BENCHMARK

    EPA Science Inventory

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently sponsored the New England Forecasting Pilot Program to serve as a "test bed" for chemical forecasting by providing all of the elements of a National Air Quality Forecasting System, including the development and implemen...

  20. An overview of the joint FAA/NASA aircraft/ground runway friction program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yager, Thomas J.

    1989-01-01

    There is a need for information on runways which may become slippery due to various forms and types of contaminants. Experience has shown that since the beginning of all weather aircraft operations, there have been landing and aborted takeoff incidents and/or accidents each year where aircraft have either run off the end or veered off the shoulder of low friction runways. NASA Langley's Landing and Impact Dynamics Branch is involved in several research programs directed towards obtaining a better understanding of how different tire properties interact with varying pavement surface characteristics to produce acceptable performance for aircraft ground handling requirements. One such effort, which was jointly supported by not only NASA and the FAA but by several aviation industry groups including the Flight Safety Foundation, is described.

  1. Automating test case generation for coverages required by FAA standard DO-178B

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Voas, Jeffrey M.; Payne, Jeffery E.; Miller, Keith W.

    1993-01-01

    Coverage testing techniques are required by the FAA for various levels of subsystem criticality at the unit testing level. Higher levels of criticality require coverage schemes that frequently require more and more test cases, particularly when the number of conditions in a decision grows. For example, if we have a decision with n conditions of the form: if (/ci/ or /c2/ or .... or /cn/) then there are 2(n) possible combinations of condition outcomes. Given the enormous number of inputs that may be required to satisfy different coverages, and given that there are no automated tools for determining these inputs (to our knowledge), we will show how one alternative testing technique, mutation testing, can be coerced into generating inputs that satisfy a code coverage scheme X, i.e., if we modify the rules for mutant generation during mutation testing, this technique will provide test cases that satisfy X.

  2. NASA,FAA,ONERA Swept-Wing Icing and Aerodynamics: Summary of Research and Current Status

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Broeren, Andy

    2015-01-01

    NASA, FAA, ONERA, and other partner organizations have embarked on a significant, collaborative research effort to address the technical challenges associated with icing on large scale, three-dimensional swept wings. These are extremely complex phenomena important to the design, certification and safe operation of small and large transport aircraft. There is increasing demand to balance trade-offs in aircraft efficiency, cost and noise that tend to compete directly with allowable performance degradations over an increasing range of icing conditions. Computational fluid dynamics codes have reached a level of maturity that they are being proposed by manufacturers for use in certification of aircraft for flight in icing. However, sufficient high-quality data to evaluate their performance on iced swept wings are not currently available in the public domain and significant knowledge gaps remain.

  3. NASA/FAA Helicopter ATC simulation investigation of RNAV/MLS instrument approaches

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peach, L. L., Jr.; Tobias, L.; Lee, H. Q.

    1982-01-01

    The NASA/FAA Helicopter Air Traffic Control (ATC) simulation investigations to determine the feasibility of simultaneous, independent instrument approach procedures for helicopters at major terminal areas, using Area Navigation/Microwave Landing System (RNAV/MLS) guidance, was conducted at several levels of helicopter display sophistication, up to that of a Cockpit Display of Traffic Information (CDTI) system. Test objectives included the determination of pilot acceptability and the tracking performance of the RNAV/MLS's noninterfering rotorcraft approach path structure, along with the evaluation of the effect on controller workload of multiroute structures combining conventional and rotorcraft approaches at various arrival rates and traffic separations. The utility of electronic area maps and CDTI displays was also investigated. Participating pilots flew 127 simulated instrument approaches in an ATC simulation laboratory.

  4. NASA-FAA helicopter Microwave Landing System curved path flight test

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Swenson, H. N.; Hamlin, J. R.; Wilson, G. W.

    1983-01-01

    An ongoing series of joint NASA/FAA helicopter Microwave Landing System (MLS) flight tests was conducted at Ames Research Center. This paper deals with tests done from the spring through the fall of 1983. This flight test investigated and developed solutions to the problem of manually flying curved-path and steep glide slope approaches into the terminal area using the MLS and flight director guidance. An MLS-equipped Bell UH-1H helicopter flown by NASA test pilots was used to develop approaches and procedures for flying these approaches. The approaches took the form of Straight-in, U-turn, and S-turn flightpaths with glide slopes of 6 deg, 9 deg, and 12 deg. These procedures were evaluated by 18 pilots from various elements of the helicopter community, flying a total of 221 hooded instrument approaches. Flying these curved path and steep glide slopes was found to be operationally acceptable with flight director guidance using the MLS.

  5. CSLAA and FAA'S Rules: Incorporating a 'Risk Management Framework' to Minimise Human Space Flight Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaddha, S.

    2012-01-01

    th This year marks the 50 anniversary of a landmark victory for humankind in its endeavour of entering and exploring the final frontier. During these years of space activity, we have witnessed a number of cumulative successes. One of which is the emergence of the commercial human space flight, or "space tourism", market. Commercial companies have the aim of travelling people into space safely and affordably. This paper shall consider the U.S. regulatory framework governing the space tourism market. It scrutinises the adequacy of the Commercial Space Launch and Amendment Act of 2004 (CSLAA), as bolstered by the FAA's requirements, to protect launching passengers to an acceptable standard of safety from the inherent risks associated with human space flights. It is argued that the legislative regime embeds a three-limb "risk management framework" as an appropriate response to address the concern over the safety of public space travel.

  6. Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) Overview and Results: NASA to FAA Research Transition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Engelland, Shawn; Davis, Tom.

    2013-01-01

    NASA researchers developed the Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) concept to improve the tactical departure scheduling process. The PDRC system is comprised of: 1) a surface automation system that computes ready time predictions and departure runway assignments, 2) an en route scheduling automation tool that uses this information to estimate ascent trajectories to the merge point and computes release times and, 3) an interface that provides two-way communication between the two systems. To minimize technology transfer issues and facilitate its adoption by TMCs and Frontline Managers (FLM), NASA developed the PDRC prototype using the Surface Decision Support System (SDSS) for the Tower surface automation tool, a research version of the FAA TMA (RTMA) for en route automation tool and a digital interface between the two DSTs to facilitate coordination.

  7. Forecasting Future Trends in Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Collazo, Andres; And Others

    1977-01-01

    Describes a forecasting model sensitive to the major factors influencing educational outcomes, presents several forecasts based on alternative sets of assumptions, and discusses the implications of these forecasts, including ways to subvert them. (Author/JG)

  8. Aviation Forecasting in ICAO

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcmahon, J.

    1972-01-01

    Opinions or plans of qualified experts in the field are used for forecasting future requirements for air navigational facilities and services of international civil aviation. ICAO periodically collects information from Stators and operates on anticipated future operations, consolidates this information, and forecasts the future level of activity at different airports.

  9. Congressional Election Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lewis-Beck, Michael S.; Rice, Tom W.

    1988-01-01

    Reviews the growing literature on the forecasting of elections, providing an example in the form of 1988 congressional election predictions. Briefly discusses the history of election outcome prediction and outlines two scientific forecasting models which, the authors state, are appropriate for use in the classroom. (GEA)

  10. The HFIP High Resolution Hurricane Forecast Test

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nance, L. B.; Bernardet, L.; Bao, S.; Brown, B.; Carson, L.; Fowler, T.; Halley Gotway, J.; Harrop, C.; Szoke, E.; Tollerud, E. I.; Wolff, J.; Yuan, H.

    2010-12-01

    Tropical cyclones are a serious concern for the nation, causing significant risk to life, property and economic vitality. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service has a mission of issuing tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings, aimed at protecting life and property and enhancing the national economy. In the last 10 years, the errors in hurricane track forecasts have been reduced by about 50% through improved model guidance, enhanced observations, and forecaster expertise. However, little progress has been made during this period toward reducing forecasted intensity errors. To address this shortcoming, NOAA established the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) in 2007. HFIP is a 10-year plan to improve one to five day tropical cyclone forecasts, with a focus on rapid intensity change. Recent research suggests that prediction models with grid spacing less than 1 km in the inner core of the hurricane may provide a substantial improvement in intensity forecasts. The 2008-09 staging of the High Resolution Hurricane (HRH) Test focused on quantifying the impact of increased horizontal resolution in numerical models on hurricane intensity forecasts. The primary goal of this test was an evaluation of the effect of increasing horizontal resolution within a given model across a variety of storms with different intensity, location and structure. The test focused on 69 retrospectives cases from the 2005 and 2007 hurricane seasons. Six modeling groups participated in the HRH test utilizing a variety of models, including three configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the operational GFDL model, the Navy’s tropical cyclone model, and a model developed at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UWM). The Development Testbed Center (DTC) was tasked with providing objective verification statistics for a variety of metrics. This presentation provides an overview of the HRH Test and a summary of the standard

  11. ARRA FEMP Technical Assistance -- Federal Aviation Administration Project 209 -- Control Tower and Support Building, Palm Springs, CA

    SciTech Connect

    Arends, J.; Sandusky, William F.

    2010-03-31

    This report represents findings of a design review team that evaluated construction documents (at the 100% level) and operating specifications for a new control tower and support building that will be built in Palm Springs, California by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The focus of the review was to identify measures that could be incorporated into the final design and operating specifications that would result in additional energy savings for the FAA that would not have otherwise occurred.

  12. 41 CFR 102-37.530 - What are FAA's responsibilities in the donation of surplus property to public airports?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... State, political subdivision of a State, or tax-supported organization for public airport use; (b... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What are FAA's responsibilities in the donation of surplus property to public airports? 102-37.530 Section 102-37.530...

  13. 14 CFR 11.35 - Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.35 Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? (a) Sensitive security information. You should not submit sensitive security information to the rulemaking docket, unless you...

  14. 14 CFR 11.35 - Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.35 Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? (a) Sensitive security information. You should not submit sensitive security information to the rulemaking docket, unless you...

  15. 14 CFR 11.35 - Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.35 Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? (a) Sensitive security information. You should not submit sensitive security information to the rulemaking docket, unless you...

  16. 14 CFR 11.35 - Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.35 Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? (a) Sensitive security information. You should not submit sensitive security information to the rulemaking docket, unless you...

  17. 14 CFR 11.35 - Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.35 Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? (a) Sensitive security information. You should not submit sensitive security information to the rulemaking docket, unless you...

  18. 14 CFR 406.109 - Administrative law judges-powers and limitations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Administrative law judges-powers and limitations. 406.109 Section 406.109 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION... Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation Adjudications § 406.109 Administrative law...

  19. 14 CFR 406.109 - Administrative law judges-powers and limitations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Administrative law judges-powers and limitations. 406.109 Section 406.109 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION... Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation Adjudications § 406.109 Administrative law...

  20. 14 CFR 406.109 - Administrative law judges-powers and limitations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Administrative law judges-powers and limitations. 406.109 Section 406.109 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION... Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation Adjudications § 406.109 Administrative law...

  1. 14 CFR 406.109 - Administrative law judges-powers and limitations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Administrative law judges-powers and limitations. 406.109 Section 406.109 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION... Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation Adjudications § 406.109 Administrative law...

  2. 14 CFR 11.101 - May I ask FAA to reconsider my petition for rulemaking or petition for exemption if it is denied?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false May I ask FAA to reconsider my petition for rulemaking or petition for exemption if it is denied? 11.101 Section 11.101 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL... Rulemaking Procedures Petitions for Rulemaking and for Exemption § 11.101 May I ask FAA to reconsider...

  3. Value of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts: Assessment by Real-Time Optimization of Irrigation Scheduling

    SciTech Connect

    Cai, Ximing; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Wang, Dingbao

    2011-09-29

    This paper presents a modeling framework for real-time decision support for irrigation scheduling using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) probabilistic rainfall forecasts. The forecasts and their probability distributions are incorporated into a simulation-optimization modeling framework. In this study, modeling irrigation is determined by a stochastic optimization program based on the simulated soil moisture and crop water-stress status and the forecasted rainfall for the next 1-7 days. The modeling framework is applied to irrigated corn in Mason County, Illinois. It is found that there is ample potential to improve current farmers practices by simply using the proposed simulation-optimization framework, which uses the present soil moisture and crop evapotranspiration information even without any forecasts. It is found that the values of the forecasts vary across dry, normal, and wet years. More significant economic gains are found in normal and wet years than in dry years under the various forecast horizons. To mitigate drought effect on crop yield through irrigation, medium- or long-term climate predictions likely play a more important role than short-term forecasts. NOAA's imperfect 1-week forecast is still valuable in terms of both profit gain and water saving. Compared with the no-rain forecast case, the short-term imperfect forecasts could lead to additional 2.4-8.5% gain in profit and 11.0-26.9% water saving. However, the performance of the imperfect forecast is only slightly better than the ensemble weather forecast based on historical data and slightly inferior to the perfect forecast. It seems that the 1-week forecast horizon is too limited to evaluate the role of the various forecast scenarios for irrigation scheduling, which is actually a seasonal decision issue. For irrigation scheduling, both the forecast quality and the length of forecast time horizon matter. Thus, longer forecasts might be necessary to evaluate the role

  4. Using NMME in Region-Specific Operational Seasonal Climate Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gronewold, A.; Bolinger, R. A.; Fry, L. M.; Kompoltowicz, K.

    2015-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) provides access to a suite of real-time monthly climate forecasts that comprise the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) in an attempt to meet increasing demands for monthly to seasonal climate prediction. While the graphical map forecasts of the NMME are informative, there is a need to provide decision-makers with probabilistic forecasts specific to their region of interest. Here, we demonstrate the potential application of the NMME to address regional climate projection needs by developing new forecasts of temperature and precipitation for the North American Great Lakes, the largest system of lakes on Earth. Regional opertional water budget forecasts rely on these outlooks to initiate monthly forecasts not only of the water budget, but of monthly lake water levels as well. More specifically, we present an alternative for improving existing operational protocols that currently involve a relatively time-consuming and subjective procedure based on interpreting the maps of the NMME. In addition, all forecasts are currently presented in the NMME in a probabilistic format, with equal weighting given to each member of the ensemble. In our new evolution of this product, we provide historical context for the forecasts by superimposing them (in an on-line graphical user interface) with the historical range of observations. Implementation of this new tool has already led to noticeable advantages in regional water budget forecasting, and has the potential to be transferred to other regional decision-making authorities as well.

  5. Statistical evaluation of forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mader, Malenka; Mader, Wolfgang; Gluckman, Bruce J.; Timmer, Jens; Schelter, Björn

    2014-08-01

    Reliable forecasts of extreme but rare events, such as earthquakes, financial crashes, and epileptic seizures, would render interventions and precautions possible. Therefore, forecasting methods have been developed which intend to raise an alarm if an extreme event is about to occur. In order to statistically validate the performance of a prediction system, it must be compared to the performance of a random predictor, which raises alarms independent of the events. Such a random predictor can be obtained by bootstrapping or analytically. We propose an analytic statistical framework which, in contrast to conventional methods, allows for validating independently the sensitivity and specificity of a forecasting method. Moreover, our method accounts for the periods during which an event has to remain absent or occur after a respective forecast.

  6. Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors using GDAPS (UM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, D.; Kim, J.; Chang, K.; Byun, K.; Lee, J.

    2013-12-01

    After the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) began issuing official five-day tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts in 2003, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) started issuing official five-day forecasts of TCs in May 2012 after 2 year of beta test. Forming a selective consensus (SCON) by proper removal of a likely erroneous track forecast is hypothesized to be more accurate than the non-selective consensus (NCON) of all model tracks that are used for the five-day forecasts. Conceptual models describing large track error mechanisms, which are related to known tropical cyclone motion processes being misrepresented in the dynamical models, are applied to forecasts during the 2012 western North Pacific typhoon season by the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS (UM N512 L70)) which is KMA's main operational model. GDAPS (UM) is one of consensus members used in making KMA's five-day forecasts and thus analysis of its track error tendencies would be useful for forming a SCON forecast. All 72-h track errors greater than 320 km are examined on the basis of the approach developed by Carr and Elsberry (2000a, b). Tropical-influenced error sources caused 37% (47 times / 126 erroneous forecasts) of the GDAPS (UM) large track forecast errors primarily because an incorrect beta effect-related process depicted by the model contributed to the erroneous forecasts. Midlatitude-influenced error sources accounted for 63% (79 times / 126 error cases) in the GDAPS (UM) erroneous forecasts mainly due to an incorrect forecast of the midlatitude system evolutions. It is proposed that KMA will be able to issue more reliable TC track information if a likely model track error is recognized by optimum use of conceptual models by Carr and Elsberry (2000a, b) and a selective consensus track is then the basis for an improved warning.

  7. Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Worrell, Ruben

    2010-01-01

    The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger

  8. SSUSI Aurora Forecast Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsieh, S. W.; Zhang, Y.; Schaefer, R. K.; Romeo, G.; Paxton, L.

    2013-12-01

    A new capability has been developed at JHU/APL for forecasting the global aurora quantities based on the DMSP SSUSI data and the TIMED/GUVI Global Aurora Model. The SSUSI Aurora Forecast Model predicts the electron energy flux, mean energy, and equatorward boundary in the auroral oval for up to 1 day or 15 DMSP orbits in advance. In our presentation, we will demonstrate this newly implemented capability and its results. The future improvement plan will be discussed too.

  9. Precipitation and temperature ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaake, J.; Demargne, J.; Hartman, R.; Mullusky, M.; Welles, E.; Wu, L.; Herr, H.; Fan, X.; Seo, D. J.

    2007-04-01

    A procedure is presented to construct ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts of precipitation and temperature. This involves dividing the spatial forecast domain and total forecast period into a number of parts that are treated as separate forecast events. The spatial domain is divided into hydrologic sub-basins. The total forecast period is divided into time periods, one for each model time step. For each event archived values of forecasts and corresponding observations are used to model the joint distribution of forecasts and observations. The conditional distribution of observations for a given single-value forecast is used to represent the corresponding probability distribution of events that may occur for that forecast. This conditional forecast distribution subsequently is used to create ensemble members that vary in space and time using the "Schaake Shuffle" (Clark et al, 2004). The resulting ensemble members have the same space-time patterns as historical observations so that space-time joint relationships between events that have a significant effect on hydrological response tend to be preserved. Forecast uncertainty is space and time-scale dependent. For a given lead time to the beginning of the valid period of an event, forecast uncertainty depends on the length of the forecast valid time period and the spatial area to which the forecast applies. Although the "Schaake Shuffle" procedure, when applied to construct ensemble members from a time-series of single value forecasts, may preserve some of this scale dependency, it may not be sufficient without additional constraint. To account more fully for the time-dependent structure of forecast uncertainty, events for additional "aggregate" forecast periods are defined as accumulations of different "base" forecast periods. The generated ensemble members can be ingested by an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction system to produce ensemble forecasts of streamflow and other hydrological variables that reflect

  10. Determination of total Sn in some canned beverages by FAAS after separation and preconcentration.

    PubMed

    Gürkan, Ramazan; Altunay, Nail

    2015-06-15

    A micelle-mediated preconcentration method has been developed for determination of trace amounts of tin in canned beverage samples, which is widely used in food industry for packing, but its utilization is limited due to its toxic properties. The method is selectively based on the cloud point extraction (CPE) of Sn(IV) with Gallocyanin (GC(+)) and glycine as chelating agents in the mixed surfactant media, Polyethylene glycol sorbitan monolaurate (Tween 20) and Cetylpyridinium chloride (CPC) in Tris/HCl buffer, pH 8.5. The various variables affecting CPE efficiency were extensively optimized. Under the optimized conditions, the obtained calibration curve was highly linear in the range of 1-250 μg L(-1) for Sn(IV) with a good correlation coefficient of 0.9976. The detection limit of the method was 0.33 μg L(-1), and the relative standard deviations, RSDs, was in the range of 2.1-6.2% (25, 50 and 100 μg L(-1), N: 5). The matrix effect was also investigated. The method was successfully utilized for the determination of total Sn in some canned beverages by Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (FAAS). Its validity was controlled by the analysis of two certified reference materials. It has been observed that the results are in agreement with the certified values. PMID:25660864

  11. Summary of the industry/NASA/FAA workshop on philosophy of automation: Promises and realities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Norman, Susan D.

    1990-01-01

    Issues of flight deck automation are multi-faceted and complex. The rapid introduction of advanced computer based technology on to the flight deck of transport category aircraft has had considerable impact on both aircraft operations and the flight crew. As part of NASA's responsibility to facilitate an active exchange of ideas and information between members of the aviation community, an Industry/NASA/FAA workshop was conducted in August 1988. One of the most important conclusions to emerge from the workshop was that the introduction of automation has clearly benefited aviation and has substantially improved the operational safety and efficiency of our air transport system. For example, one carrier stated that they have been flying the Boeing 767 (one of the first aircraft to employ substantial automation) since 1982, and they have never had an accident or incident resulting in damage to the aircraft. Notwithstanding its benefits, many issues associated with the design, certification, and operation of automated aircraft were identified. For example two key conceptual issues were the need for the crew to have a thorough understanding of the system and the importance of defining the pilot's role. With respect to certification, a fundamental issue is the lack of comprehensive human factors requirements in the current regulations. Operational considerations, which have been a factor in incidents involving automation, were also cited. Viewgraphs used in the presentation are given.

  12. NASA/FAA flight-test investigation of helicopter microwave landing system approaches

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peach, I. L., Jr.; Bull, J. S.; Anderson, D. J.; Dugan, D. C.; Ross, V. L.; Hunting, A. W.; Pate, D. P.; Savage, J. C.

    1980-01-01

    The helicopter Microwave Landing System flight-test investigations, conducted by a joint NASA/FAA effort in order to gather statistical data for establishing terminal instrument procedures criteria, and to provide a performance data base for developing advanced MLS guidance concepts, are presented. The specific flight-test objectives were to: (1) develop acceptable angle-only MLS approach profiles; (2) determine tracking errors; (3) determine altitude loss during missed approach; (4) evaluate guidance display sensitivities; and (5) evaluate pilot acceptability. Fourteen pilots flew 140 manual (without stability augmentation) dual-pilot simulated instrument approaches in a UH-1H helicopter. The flight profiles flown included 3-, 6-, and 9-degree glideslope, centerline approaches to decision heights of 50, 100, and 150 ft, respectively. The angular guidance display sensitivities and the data acquisition system are also described. Eight major conclusions are made, and include the following: (1) the use of pitch attitude to control airspeed and collective to control glideslope was the preferred pilot technique for the steep glideslope approaches, and (2) angular guidance deviation indicator sensitivity requirements for helicopter MLS approaches to STOLports and heliports have been found to be significantly different from standard ILS sensitivities.

  13. Simplified multi-element analysis of ground and instant coffees by ICP-OES and FAAS.

    PubMed

    Szymczycha-Madeja, Anna; Welna, Maja; Pohl, Pawel

    2015-01-01

    A simplified alternative to the wet digestion sample preparation procedure for roasted ground and instant coffees has been developed and validated for the determination of different elements by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES) (Al, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sr, Zn) and flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS) (Ca, Fe, K, Mg, Na). The proposed procedure, i.e. the ultrasound-assisted solubilisation in aqua regia, is quite fast and simple, requires minimal use of reagents, and demonstrated good analytical performance, i.e. accuracy from -4.7% to 1.9%, precision within 0.5-8.6% and recovery in the range 93.5-103%. Detection limits of elements were from 0.086 ng ml(-1) (Sr) to 40 ng ml(-1) (Fe). A preliminary classification of 18 samples of ground and instant coffees was successfully made based on concentrations of selected elements and using principal component analysis and hierarchic cluster analysis. PMID:26140574

  14. Determination of trace elements in fly ash samples by FAAS after applying different digestion procedure.

    PubMed

    Bingöl, D; Akçay, M

    2005-04-30

    The fly ash samples obtained from Kangal Power Plant were prepared for FAAS analysis by a new approach. The trace elements of the fly ash samples were leached with appropriate solvents under suitable conditions. The leaching method is known as an effective technique for substances dissolving very hard and refractory materials. The leaching effects of solvents and their mixtures were investigated on fly ash samples that are used largely in analysis of soil and sediment samples. The fly ashes mainly consist of glassy aluminosilicates. The major components of the samples are SiO(2), Al(2)O(3), CaO and Fe(2)O(3). Therefore, decomposition of the silicate lattice of the fly ash is required for liberation of trace elements. The dissolution process can be completed by using a mineral acid such as concentrated HCl. This technique has an advantage that the fly ash can be dissolved without any oxidation at room temperature. Maximum element recoveries were obtained by the procedure of 37% HCl leaching after the samples were treated with 2.0ml of concentrated HF. It was also observed that maximum mass loss occurred in this procedure. The effect of the four leaching reagents, which are HCl, HNO(3), HClO(4) and HNO(3)+HClO(4,) were investigated on fly ash samples that were treated with concentrated HF. An optimum leaching method was determined based on the confidence of analytical results and element recovery rates. PMID:18970026

  15. [Determination of ten metal elements in Ziziphora clinopodioides Lam by microwave digestion-FAAS].

    PubMed

    Tian, Shu-Ge; Zhou, Xiao-Ying; Xu, Tun-Hai; Ding, Jian-Bing; Shan, Li-Juan; Shi, Yang

    2009-07-01

    Comprehensive utilization of traditional Uighur medicine has been increasingly emphasized, and the relationship between metal elements and traditional Uighur medicine has attracted great attention, so it is quite important to determine the contents of traditional Uighur medicine. The Ziziphora clinopodioides Lam powder was digested with HNO3 by microwave digestion before determination. Ten metal elements in Ziziphora clinopodioides Lam were determined by FAAS. The work conditions, accuracy and precision of the method were studied. The linear correlations of standard curves are good (r = 0.999 0-0.999 8). The recovery (n = 6) is 95%-108%, and the RSD(n = 6) is 0.45%-1.53%. The results showed that there were comparatively rich metal elements, among which are comparatively high calcium, magnesium and potassium in Ziziphora clinopodioides Lam. The method offers traits of low detection limit, high sensitivity, speediness and exactness, and wasapplied to the determination of metal elements in samples with satisfactory results. It provided useful data for discussing the relationship between the content of the metal elements in Ziziphora clinopodioides Lam and clinical application of the Uighur medicine. PMID:19798990

  16. [Determination of eight metal elements in Cichorium glandulosum Boiss et Huet by microwave digestion-FAAS].

    PubMed

    Pei, Ling-Peng; Zhou, Xiao-Ying; Cui, Jian; Pang, Zong-Ran; Liu, Hong-Bing; Ge, Liang

    2009-12-01

    The Cichorium glandulosum Boiss et Huet is a traditional Uighur natural herbal medicine, but has not been analyzed and studied in terms of its metal elements. In the experiment, the Cichorium glandulosum Boiss et Huet powder was digested with HNO3 by microwave digestion before determination. The eight metal elements, potassium, nickel, calcium, magnesium, iron, manganese, copper and zinc, in Cichorium glandulosum Boiss et Huet were determined by FAAS. The working conditions, accuracy and precision of the method were studied. The linear correlations of standard curves are good (r = 0.999 1-0.999 9). The recovery (n = 6) is 92.25%-110.5%, and the RSD (n = 6) is 0.7%-3.88%. The results showed that there were comparatively rich metal elements, among which are comparatively high calcium (65.84 mg x g(-1)), iron (24.38 mg x g(-1)), magnesium (278.17 mg x g(-1)) and potassium (18.50 mg x g(-1)), in Cichorium glandulosum Boiss et Huet, and the contents of other elements are nickel of 0.004 38 mg x g(-1), manganese of 0.52 mg x g(-1), copper of 0.016 5 mg x g(-1) and zinc of 0.18 mg x g(-1). This provided useful data for discussing the relationship between the content of the metal elements in Cichorium glandulosum Boiss et Huet and its clinical application in cardiovascular and osteoporosis disease. PMID:20210183

  17. An overview of health forecasting.

    PubMed

    Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D

    2013-01-01

    Health forecasting is a novel area of forecasting, and a valuable tool for predicting future health events or situations such as demands for health services and healthcare needs. It facilitates preventive medicine and health care intervention strategies, by pre-informing health service providers to take appropriate mitigating actions to minimize risks and manage demand. Health forecasting requires reliable data, information and appropriate analytical tools for the prediction of specific health conditions or situations. There is no single approach to health forecasting, and so various methods have often been adopted to forecast aggregate or specific health conditions. Meanwhile, there are no defined health forecasting horizons (time frames) to match the choices of health forecasting methods/approaches that are often applied. The key principles of health forecasting have not also been adequately described to guide the process. This paper provides a brief introduction and theoretical analysis of health forecasting. It describes the key issues that are important for health forecasting, including: definitions, principles of health forecasting, and the properties of health data, which influence the choices of health forecasting methods. Other matters related to the value of health forecasting, and the general challenges associated with developing and using health forecasting services are discussed. This overview is a stimulus for further discussions on standardizing health forecasting approaches and methods that will facilitate health care and health services delivery. PMID:22949173

  18. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  19. Biomimetic FAA-certifiable, artificial muscle structures for commercial aircraft wings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barrett, Ronald M.; Barrett, Cassandra M.

    2014-07-01

    This paper is centered on a new form of adaptive material which functions much in the same way as skeletal muscle tissue, is structurally modeled on plant actuator cells and capable of rapidly expanding or shrinking by as much as an order of magnitude in prescribed directions. Rapid changes of plant cell shape and sizes are often initiated via ion-transport driven fluid migration and resulting turgor pressure variation. Certain plant cellular structures like those in Mimosa pudica (sensitive plant), Albizia julibrissin (Mimosa tree), or Dionaea muscipula (Venus Flytrap) all exhibit actuation physiology which employs such turgor pressure manipulation. The paper begins with dynamic micrographs of a sectioned basal articulation joint from A. julibrissin. These figures show large cellular dimensional changes as the structure undergoes foliage articulation. By mimicking such structures in aircraft flight control mechanisms, extremely lightweight pneumatic control surface actuators can be designed. This paper shows several fundamental layouts of such surfaces with actuator elements made exclusively from FAA-certifiable materials, summarizes their structural mechanics and shows actuator power and energy densities that are higher than nearly all classes of conventional adaptive materials available today. A sample flap structure is shown to possess the ability to change its shape and structural stiffness as its cell pressures are manipulated, which in turn changes the surface lift-curve slope when exposed to airflows. Because the structural stiffness can be altered, it is also shown that the commanded section lift-curve slope can be similarly controlled between 1.2 and 6.2 rad-1. Several aircraft weight reduction principles are also shown to come into play as the need to concentrate loads to pass through point actuators is eliminated. The paper concludes with a summary of interrelated performance and airframe-level improvements including enhanced gust rejection, load

  20. [Determination of mineral elements in different part of Astragalus membranaceus(Fisch.) by FAAS].

    PubMed

    Wang, Wei-Ling; Liang, Zong-Suo; Tan, Yong; Duan, Qi-Mei

    2008-05-01

    Having digested the root and shoot of Astragalus membranaceus (Fisch.) with the mixture of nitric acid and perchloride acid (4 : 1) under the condition of the bolling point and the normal pressure, the contents of the five mineral elements necessary to humanity, potassium, copper, zinc, iron and manganese in root and shoot of Astragalus membranaceus (Fisch.) were determined by flame atomic absorption spectroscopy (FAAS), and the results were analyzed in statistics. The correlative coefficient of the standard curve in this method is 0.997 3-0.999 9, the recovery of standard addition was 92.88%-109.25% and the relative standard deviation (RSD, n = 5) was 0.393 5%-3.175 2%. The method is simple and the results were accurate and reliable. The contents of K, Fe, Zn, Mn, Cu in the root and shoot of Astragalus membranaceus (Fisch.) were compared. The results showed that the sequence of the content of metal elements is as follows in all samples: K > Fe > Zn > Mn > Cu. However, the distribution of elements in shoot and root is not uniform, and the content of Fe, Zn and Cu in root is richer than in shoot. There are abundant Fe, Zn and Cu in root, for example, the content of Fe in root is 1.54 times that in shoot. In addition, there are also abundant mineral elements in the shoot, especially in K and Mn, for example, the content of K in shoot is 1.63 times that in root. The contents of K, Fe, Zn, Mn and Cu in shoot are in agreement with the medical effects of Astragalus membranaceus (Fisch.). The results should provide useful data for investigating the distribution of mineral element in Astragalus membranaceu body and the correlation between the mineral element content and the effect of medicine in Astragalus membranaceus (Fisch.). PMID:18720826

  1. Forecasting digital microcircuit obsolescence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balwally, Nandakumar M.

    1991-03-01

    This report documents a procedure for forecasting digital microcircuit obsolescence at the Defense Electronics Supply Center, Dayton, OH. Obsolescence is caused by rapid advancement in digital technology and decrease in commercial demand while military demand still continues. In logistics parlance, parts obsolescence is known as a diminishing manufacturing source (DMS) problem. Continued supply of an obsolete DMS item is assured via substitution, alternate sourcing or a one time buy equal to the lifetime requirements of the item. Emulation is a recent alternative which explores the possibility of replacing obsolete digital microcircuits with state of the art devices which can be manufactured and supplied on demand. The report recommends use of a statistical model which forecasts DMS items from a population of presently non-DMS items belonging to obsolete digital microcircuit technologies. The items forecast by the model should be evaluated for their emulation potential.

  2. American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) FEMP Technical Assistance Federal Aviation Administration Project 209 - Control Tower and Support Building, Las Vegas, NV

    SciTech Connect

    Arends, J.; Sandusky, William F.

    2010-03-31

    This report represents findings of a design review team that evaluated construction documents (at the 70% level) and operating specifications for a new control tower and support building that will be built in Las Vegas, Nevada by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The focus of the review was to identify measures that could be incorporated into the final design and operating specification that would result in additional energy savings for the FAA that would not have otherwise occurred.

  3. American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) FEMP Technical Assistance Federal Aviation Administration – Project 209 Control Tower and Support Building Oakland, CA

    SciTech Connect

    Arends, J.; Sandusky, William F.

    2010-03-01

    This report represents findings of a design review team that evaluated construction documents (at the 70% level) and operating specifications for a new control tower and support building that will be build at Oakland, California by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The focus of the review was to identify measures that could be incorporated into the final design and operating specification that would result in additional energy savings for the FAA that would not have otherwise occurred.

  4. Forecasters of earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maximova, Lyudmila

    1987-07-01

    For the first time Soviet scientists have set up a bioseismological proving ground which will stage a systematic extensive experiment of using birds, ants, mountain rodents including marmots, which can dig holes in the Earth's interior to a depth of 50 meters, for the purpose of earthquake forecasting. Biologists have accumulated extensive experimental data on the impact of various electromagnetic fields, including fields of weak intensity, on living organisms. As far as mammals are concerned, electromagnetic waves with frequencies close to the brain's biorhythms have the strongest effect. How these observations can be used to forecast earthquakes is discussed.

  5. Route based forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zuurendonk, I. W.; Wokke, M. J. J.

    2009-09-01

    Road surface temperatures can differ several degrees on a very short distance due to local effects. In order to get more insight in the local temperature differences and to develop safer gritting routes, Meteogroup has developed a system for route based temperature forecasting. The standard version of the road model is addressed to forecast road surface temperature and condition for a specific location. This model consists of two parts. First a physical part, based on the energy balance equations. The second part of the model performs a statistical correction on the calculated physical road surface temperature. The road model is able to create a forecast for one specific location. From infrared measurements, we know that large local differences in road surface temperature exist on a route. Differences can be up to 5 degrees Celsius over a distance of several hundreds of meters. Based on those measurements, the idea came up to develop a system that forecasts road surface temperature and condition for an entire route: route based forecasting. The route is split up in sections with equal properties. For each section a temperature and condition will be calculated. The main factors that influence the road surface temperature are modelled in this forecasting system: •The local weather conditions: temperature, dew point temperature, wind, precipitation, weather type, cloudiness. •The sky view: A very sheltered place will receive less radiation during daytime and emit less radiation during nighttime. For a very open spot, the effects are reversed. •The solar view: A road section with trees on the southern side, will receive less solar radiation during daytime than a section with tress on the southern side. The route based forecast shows by means of a clear Google Maps presentation which sections will be slippery at what time of the coming night. The final goal of this type of forecast, is to make dynamical gritting possible: a variable salt amount and a different

  6. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  7. Survival Sales Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Paradiso, James; Stair, Kenneth

    Intended to provide insight into the dynamics of demand analysis, this paper presents an eight-step method for forecasting sales. Focusing on sales levels that must be achieved to enjoy targeted profits in favor of the usual approach of emphasizing how much will be sold within a given period, a sample situation is provided to illustrate this…

  8. Forecasting Scientific - Technical Information.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vvedenskiy, T. A.; And Others

    This document contains three selections from the Russian-language journal "Nauchno-Teknicheskaya Informatsiya," Moscow. The first article is "Documentation for Technical Forecasts" by T. A. Vvedenskiy (Series 1, Number 11, 1969, submitted for publication 9 July 1968, p3-5). This article deals with the transformation of the method of scientific…

  9. Improving operational plume forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balcerak, Ernie

    2012-04-01

    Forecasting how plumes of particles, such as radioactive particles from a nuclear disaster, will be transported and dispersed in the atmosphere is an important but computationally challenging task. During the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan, operational plume forecasts were produced each day, but as the emissions continued, previous emissions were not included in the simulations used for forecasts because it became impractical to rerun the simulations each day from the beginning of the accident. Draxler and Rolph examine whether it is possible to improve plume simulation speed and flexibility as conditions and input data change. The authors use a method known as a transfer coefficient matrix approach that allows them to simulate many radionuclides using only a few generic species for the computation. Their simulations work faster by dividing the computation into separate independent segments in such a way that the most computationally time consuming pieces of the calculation need to be done only once. This makes it possible to provide real-time operational plume forecasts by continuously updating the previous simulations as new data become available. They tested their method using data from the Fukushima incident to show that it performed well. (Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, doi:10.1029/2011JD017205, 2012)

  10. Forecasting Mass Communication.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dailey, Joseph M.

    In sorting through predictions about future communications, it should be kept in mind that if one can think of a communication technology in the future, then that communication technology will stand a very good chance of becoming a reality. In other words, the forecasting of invention is not separate from invention itself. Secondly, the inventions…

  11. External Environmental Forecast.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lapin, Joel D.

    Representing current viewpoints of academics, futures experts, and social observers, this external environmental forecast presents projections and information of particular relevance to the future of Catonsville Community College. The following topics are examined: (1) population changes and implications for higher education; (2) state and local…

  12. Federal Forecasters Directory, 1995.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Center for Education Statistics (ED), Washington, DC.

    This directory lists employees of the federal government who are involved in forecasting for policy formation and trend prediction purposes. Job title, agency, business address, phone or e-mail number, and specialty areas are listed for each employee. Employees are listed for the following agencies: (1) Bureau of the Census; (2) Bureau of Economic…

  13. Forecasting Credit Hours.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bivin, David; Rooney, Patrick Michael

    1999-01-01

    This study used Tobit analysis to estimate retention probabilities and credit hours at two universities. Tobit was judged as appropriate for this problem because it recognizes the lower bound of zero on credit hours and incorporates this bound into parameter estimates and forecasts. Models are estimated for credit hours in a single year and…

  14. Corporate Forecasting: Promise and Reality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wheelwright, Steven C.; Clarke, Darral G.

    1976-01-01

    Discusses a survey of forecast preparers and users in 127 major companies in an attempt to assess underlying problems and identify areas for improvement. Concludes that forecasting responsibilities and tasks must be better defined and that forecast preparers and users must become better informed about one another's roles. (Author/JG)

  15. [Comparative study on trace elements in Elsholtzia bodineri Vaniot. from Honghe by FAAS].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ju-Cheng; Liu, Wei; Yi, Zhong-Zhou; Qiu, Cheng-Shu; Li, Ying; Yan, He-Ping

    2008-11-01

    In the present paper, the authors prepared all the samples by the same method, and optimized the work conditions for flame qtomic absorption spectrometry. FAAS was applied to determine the trace elements, such as Pb, Cr, Cd, Cu, Zn, Hg, Se etc, in Elsholtzia bodineri Vaniot. from Mengzi, Shiping, Mile and Jianshui located in Honghe state. The method is simple, rapid and accurate, and allows simultaneous determination of many elements. The recoveries were in the range of 98.7%-116.4%, and RSD was 0.07%-1.69%. The contents of Pb, Cd and Hg were 53.47, 6.03 and 7.68 microg x g(-1), respectively, in the sample from Jianshui, and were higher than those from other areas. The content of Mn was the highest, and was higher in Mengzi than in other areas, and the average content in the four samples was 913.48 microg x g(-1), which was higher than the content in the soil. Fe is the semi-microelement whose average content in Elsholtzia bodineri Vaniot. from Honghe was 688.46 microg x g(-1), the high-to-low content sequence of Fe in terms of location was Mengzi, Mile, Shiping and Jianshui. The average content of Zn was 116.64 microg x g(-1), and the highest one was from Shiping. But we did not obtain the data of Se in the Elsholtzia bodineri Vaniot. from Honghe state by AAS, and did not detect Hg in samples from Shiping and Mile. The content of the detected elements in Mengzi's sample had the sequence as follows; Mn > Fe > Zn > Pb > Cu > Cr > Cd > Hg>Se, while the sequence was Mn > Fe > Zn > Pb > Cu > Hg > Cd > Cr > Se in the sample of Jianshui, Mn > Fe > Z n >Pb > Cu > Cd > Cr > Hg > Se in Shiping, and Fe > Mn > Zn > Pb > Cu > Cd > Cr > Hg > Se in Mile. The results show that the content of the trace elements is high, especially, Mn, Fe and Zn, in Elsholtzia bodineri Vaniot. in Honghe. Therefore, Elsholtzia bodineri Vaniot., which can be used as drug or beverage, is worth exploitation. PMID:19271521

  16. Against all odds -- Probabilistic forecasts and decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liechti, Katharina; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2015-04-01

    In the city of Zurich (Switzerland) the setting is such that the damage potential due to flooding of the river Sihl is estimated to about 5 billion US dollars. The flood forecasting system that is used by the administration for decision making runs continuously since 2007. It has a time horizon of max. five days and operates at hourly time steps. The flood forecasting system includes three different model chains. Two of those are run by the deterministic NWP models COSMO-2 and COSMO-7 and one is driven by the probabilistic NWP COSMO-Leps. The model chains are consistent since February 2010, so five full years are available for the evaluation for the system. The system was evaluated continuously and is a very nice example to present the added value that lies in probabilistic forecasts. The forecasts are available on an online-platform to the decision makers. Several graphical representations of the forecasts and forecast-history are available to support decision making and to rate the current situation. The communication between forecasters and decision-makers is quite close. To put it short, an ideal situation. However, an event or better put a non-event in summer 2014 showed that the knowledge about the general superiority of probabilistic forecasts doesn't necessarily mean that the decisions taken in a specific situation will be based on that probabilistic forecast. Some years of experience allow gaining confidence in the system, both for the forecasters and for the decision-makers. Even if from the theoretical point of view the handling during crisis situation is well designed, a first event demonstrated that the dialog with the decision-makers still lacks of exercise during such situations. We argue, that a false alarm is a needed experience to consolidate real-time emergency procedures relying on ensemble predictions. A missed event would probably also fit, but, in our case, we are very happy not to report about this option.

  17. Characterizing the Behavior of NOAA's Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, M.; Whitin, B.; Brown, J.; Fickenscher, P.; Henkel, A.; Talanki, S.; Hartman, R.

    2014-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Weather Service (NWS) is implementing the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) across the operating areas of the 13 NWS River Forecast Centers (RFCs). As the implementation progresses, hindcasting and validation is necessary to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the HEFS and to guide its operational use. Particularly in regions such as California that encompass a broad range of elevation, temperature, and precipitation gradients, the quality of the HEFS forecasts will vary geographically, and it is important to understand the degrees and controls on forecast quality in this context. This study aims to develop a comprehensive understanding of the quality of HEFS forecasts in California, with the aim of guiding and enhancing the implementation of the HEFS, as well as informing end-users about the expected quality of the HEFS forecasts. The HEFS was calibrated with temperature and precipitation forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Also, in order to determine forecast skill and to benchmark the HEFS against a simpler forecasting system, the HEFS was calibrated with a conditional ("resampled") climatology. The calibrated HEFS was used to generate retrospective forecasts of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow for a 25-year (1985-2009) period for six basins in the state. The forecast horizon was 1-14 days. The retrospective forecasts were verified conditionally on forecast lead time, magnitude, and season. Preliminary results indicate that HEFS forecasts are much more skillful when forced by inputs from the GEFS, rather than resampled climatology. However, there are noticeable differences in forecast quality among basins. These observations demonstrate the applicability of HEFS in a wide hydroclimatic gradient within California, while highlighting the difficulty in generalizing its behavior across the state.

  18. 14 CFR 406.165 - Argument before the administrative law judge.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Argument before the administrative law judge. 406.165 Section 406.165 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION... Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation Adjudications § 406.165 Argument before the...

  19. 14 CFR 406.165 - Argument before the administrative law judge.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Argument before the administrative law judge. 406.165 Section 406.165 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION... Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation Adjudications § 406.165 Argument before the...

  20. 14 CFR 406.165 - Argument before the administrative law judge.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Argument before the administrative law judge. 406.165 Section 406.165 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION... Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation Adjudications § 406.165 Argument before the...

  1. 14 CFR 406.165 - Argument before the administrative law judge.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Argument before the administrative law judge. 406.165 Section 406.165 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION... Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation Adjudications § 406.165 Argument before the...

  2. 43 CFR 2641.1 - Request by Administrator for conveyance of property interest.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 43 Public Lands: Interior 2 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Request by Administrator for conveyance of property interest. 2641.1 Section 2641.1 Public Lands: Interior Regulations Relating to Public Lands (Continued) BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR LAND RESOURCE MANAGEMENT (2000) FAA AIRPORT GRANTS Procedures § 2641.1 Request...

  3. Short-Termed Integrated Forecasting System: 1993 Model documentation report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-05-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth. A low world oil price and high economic growth. A high world oil price and low economic growth. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

  4. Forecasting Infectious Disease Outbreaks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaman, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    Dynamic models of infectious disease systems abound and are used to study the epidemiological characteristics of disease outbreaks, the ecological mechanisms affecting transmission, and the suitability of various control and intervention strategies. The dynamics of disease transmission are non-linear and consequently difficult to forecast. Here, we describe combined model-inference frameworks developed for the prediction of infectious diseases. We show that accurate and reliable predictions of seasonal influenza outbreaks can be made using a mathematical model representing population-level influenza transmission dynamics that has been recursively optimized using ensemble data assimilation techniques and real-time estimates of influenza incidence. Operational real-time forecasts of influenza and other infectious diseases have been and are currently being generated.

  5. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy. PMID:26081307

  6. The forecaster's added value

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turco, M.; Milelli, M.

    2009-09-01

    To the authors' knowledge there are relatively few studies that try to answer this topic: "Are humans able to add value to computer-generated forecasts and warnings ?". Moreover, the answers are not always positive. In particular some postprocessing method is competitive or superior to human forecast (see for instance Baars et al., 2005, Charba et al., 2002, Doswell C., 2003, Roebber et al., 1996, Sanders F., 1986). Within the alert system of ARPA Piemonte it is possible to study in an objective manner if the human forecaster is able to add value with respect to computer-generated forecasts. Every day the meteorology group of the Centro Funzionale of Regione Piemonte produces the HQPF (Human QPF) in terms of an areal average for each of the 13 regional warning areas, which have been created according to meteo-hydrological criteria. This allows the decision makers to produce an evaluation of the expected effects by comparing these HQPFs with predefined rainfall thresholds. Another important ingredient in this study is the very dense non-GTS network of rain gauges available that makes possible a high resolution verification. In this context the most useful verification approach is the measure of the QPF and HQPF skills by first converting precipitation expressed as continuous amounts into ‘‘exceedance'' categories (yes-no statements indicating whether precipitation equals or exceeds selected thresholds) and then computing the performances for each threshold. In particular in this work we compare the performances of the latest three years of QPF derived from two meteorological models COSMO-I7 (the Italian version of the COSMO Model, a mesoscale model developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium) and IFS (the ECMWF global model) with the HQPF. In this analysis it is possible to introduce the hypothesis test developed by Hamill (1999), in which a confidence interval is calculated with the bootstrap method in order to establish the real difference between the

  7. Satellite freeze forecast system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martsolf, J. D. (Principal Investigator)

    1983-01-01

    Provisions for back-up operations for the satellite freeze forecast system are discussed including software and hardware maintenance and DS/1000-1V linkage; troubleshooting; and digitized radar usage. The documentation developed; dissemination of data products via television and the IFAS computer network; data base management; predictive models; the installation of and progress towards the operational status of key stations; and digital data acquisition are also considered. The d addition of dew point temperature into the P-model is outlined.

  8. Uranium price forecasting methods

    SciTech Connect

    Fuller, D.M.

    1994-03-01

    This article reviews a number of forecasting methods that have been applied to uranium prices and compares their relative strengths and weaknesses. The methods reviewed are: (1) judgemental methods, (2) technical analysis, (3) time-series methods, (4) fundamental analysis, and (5) econometric methods. Historically, none of these methods has performed very well, but a well-thought-out model is still useful as a basis from which to adjust to new circumstances and try again.

  9. Frost Forecasting for Fruitgrowers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martsolf, J. D.; Chen, E.

    1983-01-01

    Progress in forecasting from satellite data reviewed. University study found data from satellites displayed in color and used to predict frost are valuable aid to agriculture. Study evaluated scheme to use Earth-temperature data from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite in computer model that determines when and where freezing temperatures endanger developing fruit crops, such as apples, peaches and cherries in spring and citrus crops in winter.

  10. Land-Breeze Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Wheeler, Mark M.; Merceret, Francis J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The nocturnal land breeze at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) is both operationally significant and challenging to forecast. The occurrence and timing of land breezes impact low-level winds, atmospheric stability, low temperatures, and fog development. Accurate predictions of the land breeze are critical for toxic material dispersion forecasts associated with space launch missions, since wind direction and low-level stability can change noticeably with the onset of a land breeze. This report presents a seven-year observational study of land breezes over east-central Florida from 1995 to 2001. This comprehensive analysis was enabled by the high-resolution tower observations over KSC/CCAFS. Five-minute observations of winds, temperature, and moisture along with 9 15-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler data were used to analyze specific land-breeze cases, while the tower data were used to construct a composite climatology. Utilities derived from this climatology were developed to assist forecasters in determining the land-breeze occurrence, timing, and movement based on predicted meteorological conditions.

  11. Global crop forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Macdonald, R. B.; Hall, F. G.

    1980-01-01

    The needs for and remote sensing means of global crop forecasting are discussed, and key results of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) are presented. Current crop production estimates provided by foreign countries are shown often to be inadequate, and the basic elements of crop production forecasts are reviewed. The LACIE project is introduced as a proof-of-concept experiment designed to assimilate remote sensing technology, monitor global wheat production, evaluate key technical problems, modify the technique accordingly and demonstrate the feasibility of a global agricultural monitoring system. The global meteorological data, sampling and aggregation techniques, Landsat data analysis procedures and yield forecast procedures used in the experiment are outlined. Accuracy assessment procedures employed to evaluate LACIE technology performance are presented, and improvements in system efficiency and capacity during the three years of operation are pointed out. Results of LACIE estimates of Soviet, U.S. and Canadian wheat production are presented which demonstrate the feasibility and accuracy of the remote-sensing approach for global food and fiber monitoring.

  12. Kp forecast models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, C.; Wing, S.; Johnson, J. R.; Jen, J.; Carr, S.; Sibeck, D. G.; Costello, K.; Freeman, J.; Balikhin, M.; Bechtold, K.; Vandegriff, J.

    2004-12-01

    Magnetically active times, e.g., Kp > 5, are notoriously difficult to predict, precisely when the predictions are crucial to the space weather users. Taking advantage of the routinely available solar wind measurements at Langrangian point (L1) and nowcast Kps, Kp forecast models based on neural networks were developed with the focus on improving the forecast for active times. In order to satisfy different needs and operational constraints, three models were developed: (1) model that inputs nowcast Kp, solar wind parameters, and predict Kp 1 hr ahead; (2) model with the same input as (1) and predict Kp 4 hr ahead; and (3) model that inputs only solar wind parameters and predict Kp 1 hr ahead (the exact prediction lead time depends on the solar wind speed and the location of the solar wind monitor). Extensive evaluations of these models and other major operational Kp forecast models show that while the new models can predict Kps more accurately for all activities, the most dramatic improvements occur for moderate and active times. The evaluations of the models over 2 solar cycles, 1975-2001, show that solar wind driven models predict Kp more accurately during solar maximum than solar minimum. This result, as well as information dynamics analysis of Kp, suggests that geospace is more dominated by internal dynamics during solar minimum than solar maximum, when it is more directly driven by external inputs, namely solar wind and IMF.

  13. Kp forecast models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wing, S.; Johnson, J. R.; Jen, J.; Meng, C.-I.; Sibeck, D. G.; Bechtold, K.; Freeman, J.; Costello, K.; Balikhin, M.; Takahashi, K.

    2005-04-01

    Magnetically active times, e.g., Kp > 5, are notoriously difficult to predict, precisely the times when such predictions are crucial to the space weather users. Taking advantage of the routinely available solar wind measurements at Langrangian point (L1) and nowcast Kps, Kp forecast models based on neural networks were developed with the focus on improving the forecast for active times. To satisfy different needs and operational constraints, three models were developed: (1) a model that inputs nowcast Kp and solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hour ahead; (2) a model with the same input as model 1 and predicts Kp 4 hour ahead; and (3) a model that inputs only solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hour ahead (the exact prediction lead time depends on the solar wind speed and the location of the solar wind monitor). Extensive evaluations of these models and other major operational Kp forecast models show that while the new models can predict Kps more accurately for all activities, the most dramatic improvements occur for moderate and active times. Information dynamics analysis of Kp suggests that geospace is more dominated by internal dynamics near solar minimum than near solar maximum, when it is more directly driven by external inputs, namely solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF).

  14. Kp forecast models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wing, S.; Johnson, J. R.; Meng, C.; Takahashi, K.

    2005-05-01

    Magnetically active times, e.g., Kp > 5, are notoriously difficult to predict, precisely the times when such predictions are crucial to the space weather users. Taking advantage of the routinely available solar wind measurements at Langrangian point (L1) and nowcast Kps, Kp forecast models based on neural networks were developed with the focus on improving the forecast for active times. To satisfy different needs and operational constraints, three models were developed: (1) a model that inputs nowcast Kp and solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hr ahead; (2) a model with the same input as model 1 and predicts Kp 4 hr ahead; and (3) a model that inputs only solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hr ahead (the exact prediction lead time depends on the solar wind speed and the location of the solar wind monitor.) Extensive evaluations of these models and other major operational Kp forecast models show that, while the new models can predict Kps more accurately for all activities, the most dramatic improvements occur for moderate and active times. Information dynamics analysis of Kp, suggests that geospace is more dominated by internal dynamics near solar minimum than near solar maximum, when it is more directly driven by external inputs, namely solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF).

  15. Forecasting geomagnetic activity indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schofield, J.; Wing, S.; Johnson, J. R.

    2007-12-01

    Magnetically active times, e.g., Kp > 5, are notoriously difficult to predict, precisely the times when such predictions are crucial to the space weather users. Taking advantage of the routinely available solar wind measurements at Langrangian point (L1) and nowcast Kps, Kp and Dst forecast models based on neural networks were developed with the focus on improving the forecast for active times. To satisfy different needs and operational constraints, three models were developed: (1) a model that inputs nowcast Kp and solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hr ahead; (2) a model with the same input as model 1 and predicts Kp 4 hr ahead; and (3) a model that inputs only solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hr ahead (the exact prediction lead time depends on the solar wind speed and the location of the solar wind monitor.) Extensive evaluations of these models and other major operational Kp forecast models show that, while the new models can predict Kps more accurately for all activities, the most dramatic improvements occur for moderate and active times. Similar Dst models were developed. Information dynamics analysis of Kp, suggests that geospace is more dominated by internal dynamics near solar minimum than near solar maximum, when it is more directly driven by external inputs, namely solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF).

  16. Using Forecasting Models to Plan for Social Work Education in the Next Century.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Faherty, Vincent E.

    1997-01-01

    Explores the use of forecasting in social work education to plan for change, and describes two qualitative and two quantitative forecasting models. Recounts the responses of one university task force to using the models for program administration and development, and examines areas of social work education in which the models may be useful.…

  17. The Practice of Manpower Forecasting: A Collection of Case Studies. Studies on Education; Vol. 1.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ahamad, Bashir; And Others

    In the 1960's academics, politicians, administrators and industrialists became convinced of the importance of education for economic development. The forecasting of qualified manpower needs was able to turn this new idea into practice. During the decade hundreds of manpower forecasts were made, and innumerable international conferenceses were held…

  18. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    PubMed Central

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and Objectives With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States’ pharmaceutical budgets. This model took into account population ageing, as well as current and future country-specific pricing, reimbursement, and market access policies (the project was performed for the European Commission; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). Method In order to have a representative heterogeneity of EU Member States, the following countries were selected for the analysis: France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. A forecasting period of 5 years (2012–2016) was chosen to assess the net pharmaceutical budget impact. A model for generics and biosimilars was developed for each country. The model estimated a separate and combined effect of the direct and indirect impacts of the patent cliff. A second model, estimating the sales development and the risk of development failure, was developed for new drugs. New drugs were reviewed individually to assess their clinical potential and translate it into commercial potential. The forecast was carried out according to three perspectives (healthcare public payer, society, and manufacturer), and several types of distribution chains (retail, hospital, and combined retail and hospital). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. Results According to the model, all countries experienced drug budget reductions except Poland (+€41 million). Savings were expected to be the highest in the United Kingdom (−€9,367 million), France

  19. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  20. Discovering the Regulatory Considerations of the Federal Aviation Administration: Interviewing the Aviation Rulemaking Advisory Committee

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lu, Chien-tsung

    2005-01-01

    Maintenance Resource Management (MRM) training for aviation mechanics has become mandatory in many industrialized countries since 1998. Yet, to date, MRM training remains optional in the U.S. Interestingly, a similar safety discipline, namely Crew/Cockpit Resource Management (CRM), is mandatory for pilots, flight engineers, flight attendants, and dispatchers and is regulated in the Federal Aviation Administration s (FAA) Federal Aviation Regulations (FARs). If MRM training is important to enhance aviation technicians working behavior, the rationale to not regulate it opens a window for study. This research aims to inductively investigate the FAA s regulatory rationale concerning MRM training based on direct inputs from the FAA s Aviation Rulemaking Advisory Committee (ARAC) members. Delphi methodology associated with purposive sampling technique was adopted. The result revealed that the FAA cannot regulate MRM because the aviation industry is strongly opposed to it due to the lack of training budgets, the need of a quantifiable cost-effect analysis, concern over the FAA s inspection workforce, an ongoing voluntary alternative called the Air Transportation Surveillance System (ATOS), the government s lower priority on maintenance after 9/11, and the airlines tight embracement of operational flexibility without regulation.

  1. Hydrological Forecasting Practices in Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Fernando; Paiva, Rodrigo; Collischonn, Walter; Ramos, Maria-Helena

    2016-04-01

    This work brings a review on current hydrological and flood forecasting practices in Brazil, including the main forecasts applications, the different kinds of techniques that are currently being employed and the institutions involved on forecasts generation. A brief overview of Brazil is provided, including aspects related to its geography, climate, hydrology and flood hazards. A general discussion about the Brazilian practices on hydrological short and medium range forecasting is presented. Detailed examples of some hydrological forecasting systems that are operational or in a research/pre-operational phase using the large scale hydrological model MGB-IPH are also presented. Finally, some suggestions are given about how the forecasting practices in Brazil can be understood nowadays, and what are the perspectives for the future.

  2. AN OPERATIONAL EVALUATION OF THE ETA - CMAQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in partnership with the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), are developing an operational, nationwide Air Quality Forecasting (AQF) system. An experimental phase of this program, which couples NOAA's Et...

  3. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

  4. Solar Indices Forecasting Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henney, Carl John; Shurkin, Kathleen; Arge, Charles; Hill, Frank

    2016-05-01

    Progress to forecast key space weather parameters using SIFT (Solar Indices Forecasting Tool) with the ADAPT (Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport) model is highlighted in this presentation. Using a magnetic flux transport model, ADAPT, we estimate the solar near-side field distribution that is used as input into empirical models for predicting F10.7(solar 10.7 cm, 2.8 GHz, radio flux), the Mg II core-to-wing ratio, and selected bands of solar far ultraviolet (FUV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance. Input to the ADAPT model includes the inferred photospheric magnetic field from the NISP ground-based instruments, GONG & VSM. Besides a status update regarding ADAPT and SIFT models, we will summarize the findings that: 1) the sum of the absolute value of strong magnetic fields, associated with sunspots, is shown to correlate well with the observed daily F10.7 variability (Henney et al. 2012); and 2) the sum of the absolute value of weak magnetic fields, associated with plage regions, is shown to correlate well with EUV and FUV irradiance variability (Henney et al. 2015). This work utilizes data produced collaboratively between Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) and the National Solar Observatory (NSO). The ADAPT model development is supported by AFRL. The input data utilized by ADAPT is obtained by NISP (NSO Integrated Synoptic Program). NSO is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy (AURA), Inc., under a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation (NSF). The 10.7 cm solar radio flux data service, utilized by the ADAPT/SIFT F10.7 forecasting model, is operated by the National Research Council of Canada and National Resources Canada, with the support of the Canadian Space Agency.

  5. Results from FAA program to validate bonded composite doublers for commercial aviation use

    SciTech Connect

    Roach, D.P.

    1997-09-01

    The number of commercial airframes exceeding twenty years of service continues to grow. In addition, Service Life Extension Programs are attempting to extend the {open_quotes}economic{close_quotes} service life of commercial airframes to thirty years. The use of bonded composites may offer the airframe manufacturers and aircraft maintenance facilities a cost effective method to extend the lives of their aircraft. The Federal Aviation Administration Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) to validate the use of bonded composite doublers on commercial aircraft.

  6. Forecast Mekong: 2011 update

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Turnipseed, D. Phil

    2011-01-01

    In 2009, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton joined with the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam in launching the Lower Mekong Initiative to enhance U.S. engagement with the Lower Mekong countries in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. Part of the Lower Mekong Initiative, the U.S. Geological Survey's Forecast Mekong project is engaging the United States in scientific research relevant to environmental issues in the Lower Mekong River countries and is staying the course in support of the Mekong Nations with a suite of new projects for 2011.

  7. Forecasting in Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Complex nonlinear systems are typically characterized by many degrees of freedom, as well as interactions between the elements. Interesting examples can be found in the areas of earthquakes and finance. In these two systems, fat tails play an important role in the statistical dynamics. For earthquake systems, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency is applicable, whereas for daily returns for the securities in the financial markets are known to be characterized by leptokurtotic statistics in which the tails are power law. Very large fluctuations are present in both systems. In earthquake systems, one has the example of great earthquakes such as the M9.1, March 11, 2011 Tohoku event. In financial systems, one has the example of the market crash of October 19, 1987. Both were largely unexpected events that severely impacted the earth and financial systems systemically. Other examples include the M9.3 Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, and the Great Recession which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 12, 2013. Forecasting the occurrence of these damaging events has great societal importance. In recent years, national funding agencies in a variety of countries have emphasized the importance of societal relevance in research, and in particular, the goal of improved forecasting technology. Previous work has shown that both earthquakes and financial crashes can be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model. These metastable systems are characterized by fat tail statistics near the classical spinodal. Correlations in these systems can grow and recede, but do not imply causation, a common source of misunderstanding. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In this talk, we describe the basic phenomenology of these systems and emphasize their similarities and differences. We also consider the problem of forecast validation and verification

  8. Weather Forecasting Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    Weather forecasters are usually very precise in reporting such conditions as temperature, wind velocity and humidity. They also provide exact information on barometric pressure at a given moment, and whether the barometer is "rising" or "falling"- but not how rapidly or how slowly it is rising or falling. Until now, there has not been available an instrument which measures precisely the current rate of change of barometric pressure. A meteorological instrument called a barograph traces the historical ups and downs of barometric pressure and plots a rising or falling curve, but, updated every three hours, it is only momentarily accurate at each updating.

  9. Forecasting Urban Expansion Based on Night Lights

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stathakis, D.

    2016-06-01

    Forecasting urban expansion models are a very powerful tool in the hands of urban planners in order to anticipate and mitigate future urbanization pressures. In this paper, a linear regression forecasting urban expansion model is implemented based on the annual composite night lights time series available from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The product known as 'stable lights' is used in particular, after it has been corrected with a standard intercalibration process to reduce artificial year-to-year fluctuations as much as possible. Forecasting is done for ten years after the end of the time series. Because the method is spatially explicit the predicted expansion trends are relatively accurately mapped. Two metrics are used to validate the process. The first one is the year-to-year Sum of Lights (SoL) variation. The second is the year-to-year image correlation coefficient. Overall it is evident that the method is able to provide an insight on future urbanization pressures in order to be taken into account in planning. The trends are quantified in a clear spatial manner.

  10. Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

    1993-01-01

    The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

  11. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  12. Optimization of Ultrasound-Assisted Extraction of Cr, Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb from Sediment, Followed by FAAS and GFAAS Analysis.

    PubMed

    Mimura, Aparecida M S; Oliveira, Marcone A L; Ciminelli, Virginia S T; Silva, Julio C J

    2016-01-01

    An ultrasound method for simultaneous extraction of Cr, Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb from sediment, and determination by flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS) and graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (GFAAS) was proposed. The experimental results obtained using analytical curves and the method of standard additions agreed at a confidence level of 95% for all the analytes, as determined by FAAS and GFAAS, indicating no significant matrix effects. Recoveries ranged from 80.1 to 93.7% (certified reference material) and from 89 to 107% (spike tests). The LOD and LOQ results from the method were consistent with the techniques used (FAAS and GFAAS), with high analytical throughput. The proposed method was then used to determine Cr, Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb in river sediment samples from Rio Doce, Minas Gerais, Brazil. The results indicated levels below those permitted by Brazilian legislation for all the analytes, with the exception of Cr. PMID:26851077

  13. Ensemble stream flow predictions, a way towards better hydrological forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edlund, C.

    2009-04-01

    The hydrological forecasting division at SMHI has been using hydrological EPS and hydrological probabilities forecasts operationally since some years ago. The inputs to the hydrological model HBV are the EPS forecasts from ECMWF. From the ensemble, non-exceedance probabilities are estimated and final correction of the ensemble spread, based on evaluation is done. Ensemble stream flow predictions are done for about 80 indicator basins in Sweden, where there is a real-time discharge gauge. The EPS runs are updated daily against the latest observed discharge. Flood probability maps for exceeding a certain threshold, i.e. a certain warning level, are produced automatically once a day. The flood probabilistic forecasts are based on a HBV- model application, (called HBV-Sv, HBV Sweden) that covers the whole country and consist of 1001 subbasins with an average size between 200 and 700 km2. Probabilities computations for exceeding a certain warning level are made for each one of these 1001 subbasins. Statistical flood levels have been calculated for each river sub-basin. Hydrological probability forecasts should be seen as an early warning product that can give better support in decision making to end-users communities, for instance Civil Protections Offices and County Administrative Boards, within flood risk management. The main limitations with probability forecasts are: on one hand, difficulties to catch small-scale rain (mainly due to resolution of meteorological models); on the other hand, the hydrological model can't be updated against observations in all subbasins. The benefits of working with probabilities consist, first of all, of a new approach when working with flood risk management and scenarios. A probability forecast can give an early indication for Civil Protection that "something is going to happen" and to gain time in preparing aid operations. The ensemble stream flow prediction at SMHI is integrated with the national forecasting system and the products

  14. Social Indicators and Social Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnston, Denis F.

    The paper identifies major types of social indicators and explains how they can be used in social forecasting. Social indicators are defined as statistical measures relating to major areas of social concern and/or individual well being. Examples of social indicators are projections, forecasts, outlook statements, time-series statistics, and…

  15. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  16. Forecasting School District Fiscal Health.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Curtis A.

    1986-01-01

    This paper's goal is to redefine fiscal health by broadening its predictive function and to determine which fiscal indicators are useful for forecasting fiscal health for one, two, and three years. Results indicate that school district fiscal health forecasts are potentially great planning tools for local for local decision makers. Includes 11…

  17. The pioneers of weather forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballard, Susan

    2016-01-01

    In The Weather Experiment author Peter Moore takes us on a compelling journey through the early history of weather forecasting, bringing to life the personalities, lives and achievements of the men who put in place the building blocks required for forecasts to be possible.

  18. Statistical Earthquake Focal Mechanism Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    The new whole Earth focal mechanism forecast, based on the GCMT catalog, has been created. In the present forecast, the sum of normalized seismic moment tensors within 1000 km radius is calculated and the P- and T-axes for the focal mechanism are evaluated on the basis of the sum. Simultaneously we calculate an average rotation angle between the forecasted mechanism and all the surrounding mechanisms. This average angle shows tectonic complexity of a region and indicates the accuracy of the prediction. The method was originally proposed by Kagan and Jackson (1994, JGR). Recent interest by CSEP and GEM has motivated some improvements, particularly to extend the previous forecast to polar and near-polar regions. The major problem in extending the forecast is the focal mechanism calculation on a spherical surface. In the previous forecast as our average focal mechanism was computed, it was assumed that longitude lines are approximately parallel within 1000 km radius. This is largely accurate in the equatorial and near-equatorial areas. However, when one approaches the 75 degree latitude, the longitude lines are no longer parallel: the bearing (azimuthal) difference at points separated by 1000 km reach about 35 degrees. In most situations a forecast point where we calculate an average focal mechanism is surrounded by earthquakes, so a bias should not be strong due to the difference effect cancellation. But if we move into polar regions, the bearing difference could approach 180 degrees. In a modified program focal mechanisms have been projected on a plane tangent to a sphere at a forecast point. New longitude axes which are parallel in the tangent plane are corrected for the bearing difference. A comparison with the old 75S-75N forecast shows that in equatorial regions the forecasted focal mechanisms are almost the same, and the difference in the forecasted focal mechanisms rotation angle is close to zero. However, though the forecasted focal mechanisms are similar

  19. Weather Forecasting Systems and Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mecikalski, John (Inventor); MacKenzie, Wayne M., Jr. (Inventor); Walker, John Robert (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    A weather forecasting system has weather forecasting logic that receives raw image data from a satellite. The raw image data has values indicative of light and radiance data from the Earth as measured by the satellite, and the weather forecasting logic processes such data to identify cumulus clouds within the satellite images. For each identified cumulus cloud, the weather forecasting logic applies interest field tests to determine a score indicating the likelihood of the cumulus cloud forming precipitation and/or lightning in the future within a certain time period. Based on such scores, the weather forecasting logic predicts in which geographic regions the identified cumulus clouds will produce precipitation and/or lighting within during the time period. Such predictions may then be used to provide a weather map thereby providing users with a graphical illustration of the areas predicted to be affected by precipitation within the time period.

  20. Speciation determination of chromium(III) and (VI) using preconcentration cloud point extraction with flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS).

    PubMed

    Kiran, K; Kumar, K Suresh; Prasad, B; Suvardhan, K; Lekkala, Ramesh Babu; Janardhanam, K

    2008-02-11

    bis-[2-Hydroxy-1-naphthaldehyde] thiourea was synthesized and preconcentration cloud point extraction (CPE) for speciation determination of chromium(III) and (VI) in various environmental samples with flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS) has been developed. Chromium(III) complexes with bis-[2-hydroxynaphthaldehyde] thiourea is subsequently entrapped in the surfactant micelles. After complexation of chromium(III) with reagent, the analyte was quantitatively extracted to the surfactant-rich phase in the non-ionic surfactant Triton X-100 after centrifugation. The effect of pH, concentration of chelating agent, surfactant, equilibration temperature and time on CPE was studied. The relative standard deviation was 2.13% and the limits of detection were around 0.18 microg L(-1). PMID:17583423

  1. Forecasting Higher Education's Future.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boyken, Don; Buck, Tina S.; Kollie, Ellen; Przyborowski, Danielle; Rondinelli, Joseph A.; Hunter, Jeff; Hanna, Jeff

    2003-01-01

    Offers predictions on trends in higher education to accommodate changing needs, lower budgets, and increased enrollment. They involve campus construction, security, administration, technology, interior design, athletics, and transportation. (EV)

  2. Verification of Meteorological and Oceanographic Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. Navy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klotz, S.; Hansen, J.; Pauley, P.; Sestak, M.; Wittmann, P.; Skupniewicz, C.; Nelson, G.

    2013-12-01

    The Navy Ensemble Forecast Verification System (NEFVS) has been promoted recently to operational status at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). NEFVS processes FNMOC and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological and ocean wave ensemble forecasts, gridded forecast analyses, and innovation (observational) data output by FNMOC's data assimilation system. The NEFVS framework consists of statistical analysis routines, a variety of pre- and post-processing scripts to manage data and plot verification metrics, and a master script to control application workflow. NEFVS computes metrics that include forecast bias, mean-squared error, conditional error, conditional rank probability score, and Brier score. The system also generates reliability and Receiver Operating Characteristic diagrams. In this presentation we describe the operational framework of NEFVS and show examples of verification products computed from ensemble forecasts, meteorological observations, and forecast analyses. The construction and deployment of NEFVS addresses important operational and scientific requirements within Navy Meteorology and Oceanography. These include computational capabilities for assessing the reliability and accuracy of meteorological and ocean wave forecasts in an operational environment, for quantifying effects of changes and potential improvements to the Navy's forecast models, and for comparing the skill of forecasts from different forecast systems. NEFVS also supports the Navy's collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, NCEP, and Environment Canada in the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) project and with the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) program. This program is tasked with eliminating unnecessary duplication within the three agencies, accelerating the transition of new technology, such as multi

  3. Verification of Meteorological and Oceanographic Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. Navy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klotz, S. P.; Hansen, J.; Pauley, P.; Sestak, M.; Wittmann, P.; Skupniewicz, C.; Nelson, G.

    2012-12-01

    The Navy Ensemble Forecast Verification System (NEFVS) has been promoted recently to operational status at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). NEFVS processes FNMOC and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological and ocean wave ensemble forecasts, gridded forecast analyses, and innovation (observational) data output by FNMOC's data assimilation system. The NEFVS framework consists of statistical analysis routines, a variety of pre- and post-processing scripts to manage data and plot verification metrics, and a master script to control application workflow. NEFVS computes metrics that include forecast bias, mean-squared error, conditional error, conditional rank probability score, and Brier score. The system also generates reliability and Receiver Operating Characteristic diagrams. In this presentation we describe the operational framework of NEFVS and show examples of verification products computed from ensemble forecasts, meteorological observations, and forecast analyses. The construction and deployment of NEFVS addresses important operational and scientific requirements within Navy Meteorology and Oceanography (METOC). These include computational capabilities for assessing the reliability and accuracy of meteorological and ocean wave forecasts in an operational environment, for quantifying effects of changes and potential improvements to the Navy's forecast models, and for comparing the skill of forecasts from different forecast systems. NEFVS also supports the Navy's collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, NCEP, and Environment Canada in the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) project and with the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) program. This program is tasked with eliminating unnecessary duplication within the three agencies, accelerating the transition of new technology, such as

  4. Atmospheric composition forecasting in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menut, L.; Bessagnet, B.

    2010-01-01

    The atmospheric composition is a societal issue and, following new European directives, its forecast is now recommended to quantify the air quality. It concerns both gaseous and particles species, identified as potential problems for health. In Europe, numerical systems providing daily air quality forecasts are numerous and, mostly, operated by universities. Following recent European research projects (GEMS, PROMOTE), an organization of the air quality forecast is currently under development. But for the moment, many platforms exist, each of them with strengths and weaknesses. This overview paper presents all existing systems in Europe and try to identify the main remaining gaps in the air quality forecast knowledge. As modeling systems are now able to reasonably forecast gaseous species, and in a lesser extent aerosols, the future directions would concern the use of these systems with ensemble approaches and satellite data assimilation. If numerous improvements were recently done on emissions and chemistry knowledge, improvements are still needed especially concerning meteorology, which remains a weak point of forecast systems. Future directions will also concern the use of these forecast tools to better understand and quantify the air pollution impact on health.

  5. Forecasts of geomagnetic secular variation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wardinski, Ingo

    2014-05-01

    We attempt to forecast the geomagnetic secular variation based on stochastic models, non-parametric regression and singular spectrum analysis of the observed past field changes. Although this modelling approach is meant to be phenomenological, it may provide some insight into the mechanisms underlying typical time scales of geomagnetic field changes. We follow two strategies to forecast secular variation: Firstly, by applying time series models, and secondly, by using time-dependent kinematic models of the advected secular variation. These forecasts can span decades, to longer periods. This depends on the length of the past observations used as input, with different input models leading to different details in the forecasts. These forecasts become more uncertain over longer forecasting periods. One appealing reason is the disregard of magnetic diffusion in the kinematic modelling. But also the interactions of unobservable small scale core field with core flow at all scale unsettle the kinematic forecasting scheme. A further (obvious) reason is that geomagnetic secular variation can not be mimicked by linear time series models as the dynamo action itself is highly non-linear. Whether the dynamo action can be represented by a simple low-dimensional system requires further analysis.

  6. A Scenario Generation Method for Wind Power Ramp Events Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Cui, Ming-Jian; Ke, De-Ping; Sun, Yuan-Zhang; Gan, Di; Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2015-07-03

    Wind power ramp events (WPREs) have received increasing attention in recent years due to their significant impact on the reliability of power grid operations. In this paper, a novel WPRE forecasting method is proposed which is able to estimate the probability distributions of three important properties of the WPREs. To do so, a neural network (NN) is first proposed to model the wind power generation (WPG) as a stochastic process so that a number of scenarios of the future WPG can be generated (or predicted). Each possible scenario of the future WPG generated in this manner contains the ramping information, and the distributions of the designated WPRE properties can be stochastically derived based on the possible scenarios. Actual data from a wind power plant in the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) was selected for testing the proposed ramp forecasting method. Results showed that the proposed method effectively forecasted the probability of ramp events.

  7. Administrative Synergy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hewitt, Kimberly Kappler; Weckstein, Daniel K.

    2012-01-01

    One of the biggest obstacles to overcome in creating and sustaining an administrative professional learning community (PLC) is time. Administrators are constantly deluged by the tyranny of the urgent. It is a Herculean task to carve out time for PLCs, but it is imperative to do so. In this article, the authors describe how an administrative PLC…

  8. A Method for Forecasting the Commercial Air Traffic Schedule in the Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Long, Dou; Lee, David; Gaier, Eric; Johnson, Jesse; Kostiuk, Peter

    1999-01-01

    This report presents an integrated set of models that forecasts air carriers' future operations when delays due to limited terminal-area capacity are considered. This report models the industry as a whole, avoiding unnecessary details of competition among the carriers. To develop the schedule outputs, we first present a model to forecast the unconstrained flight schedules in the future, based on the assumption of rational behavior of the carriers. Then we develop a method to modify the unconstrained schedules, accounting for effects of congestion due to limited NAS capacities. Our underlying assumption is that carriers will modify their operations to keep mean delays within certain limits. We estimate values for those limits from changes in planned block times reflected in the OAG. Our method for modifying schedules takes many means of reducing the delays into considerations, albeit some of them indirectly. The direct actions include depeaking, operating in off-hours, and reducing hub airports'operations. Indirect actions include using secondary airports, using larger aircraft, and selecting new hub airports, which, we assume, have already been modeled in the FAA's TAF. Users of our suite of models can substitute an alternative forecast for the TAF.

  9. Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning: Summary report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keitz, J. F.

    1982-01-01

    The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This summary report discusses the results of each of the four major tasks of the study. Task 1 compared airline flight plans based on operational forecasts to plans based on the verifying analyses and found that average fuel savings of 1.2 to 2.5 percent are possible with improved forecasts. Task 2 consisted of similar comparisons but used a model developed for the FAA by SRI International that simulated the impact of ATc diversions on the flight plans. While parts of Task 2 confirm the Task I findings, inconsistency with other data and the known impact of ATC suggests that other Task 2 findings are the result of errors in the model. Task 3 compares segment weather data from operational flight plans with the weather actually observed by the aircraft and finds the average error could result in fuel burn penalties (or savings) of up to 3.6 percent for the average 8747 flight. In Task 4 an in-depth analysis of the weather forecast for the 33 days included in the study finds that significant errors exist on 15 days. Wind speeds in the area of maximum winds are underestimated by 20 to 50 kts., a finding confirmed in the other three tasks.

  10. 41 CFR 102-33.230 - May we use military FSCAP on non-military FAA-type certificated Government aircraft?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false May we use military FSCAP on non-military FAA-type certificated Government aircraft? 102-33.230 Section 102-33.230 Public Contracts and Property Management Federal Property Management Regulations System (Continued) FEDERAL MANAGEMENT REGULATION PERSONAL PROPERTY...

  11. Aircraft and ground vehicle friction correlation test results obtained under winter runway conditions during joint FAA/NASA Runway Friction Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yager, Thomas J.; Vogler, William A.; Baldasare, Paul

    1988-01-01

    Aircraft and ground vehicle friction data collected during the Joint FAA/NASA Runway Friction Program under winter runway conditions are discussed and test results are summarized. The relationship between the different ground vehicle friction measurements obtained on compacted snow- and ice-covered conditions is defined together with the correlation to aircraft tire friction performance under similar runway conditions.

  12. 41 CFR 102-33.230 - May we use military FSCAP on non-military FAA-type certificated Government aircraft?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false May we use military FSCAP on non-military FAA-type certificated Government aircraft? 102-33.230 Section 102-33.230 Public... Aircraft Parts Managing Aircraft Parts § 102-33.230 May we use military FSCAP on non-military...

  13. Determination of Fe Content of Some Food Items by Flame Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy (FAAS): A Guided-Inquiry Learning Experience in Instrumental Analysis Laboratory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fakayode, Sayo O.; King, Angela G.; Yakubu, Mamudu; Mohammed, Abdul K.; Pollard, David A.

    2012-01-01

    This article presents a guided-inquiry (GI) hands-on determination of Fe in food samples including plantains, spinach, lima beans, oatmeal, Frosted Flakes cereal (generic), tilapia fish, and chicken using flame atomic absorption spectroscopy (FAAS). The utility of the GI experiment, which is part of an instrumental analysis laboratory course,…

  14. 41 CFR 102-33.230 - May we use military FSCAP on non-military FAA-type certificated Government aircraft?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false May we use military FSCAP on non-military FAA-type certificated Government aircraft? 102-33.230 Section 102-33.230 Public... Aircraft Parts Managing Aircraft Parts § 102-33.230 May we use military FSCAP on non-military...

  15. Applications of the gambling score in evaluating earthquake predictions and forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuang, Jiancang; Zechar, Jeremy D.; Jiang, Changsheng; Console, Rodolfo; Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe

    2010-05-01

    This study presents a new method, namely the gambling score, for scoring the performance earthquake forecasts or predictions. Unlike most other scoring procedures that require a regular scheme of forecast and treat each earthquake equally, regardless their magnitude, this new scoring method compensates the risk that the forecaster has taken. Starting with a certain number of reputation points, once a forecaster makes a prediction or forecast, he is assumed to have betted some points of his reputation. The reference model, which plays the role of the house, determines how many reputation points the forecaster can gain if he succeeds, according to a fair rule, and also takes away the reputation points bet by the forecaster if he loses. This method is also extended to the continuous case of point process models, where the reputation points betted by the forecaster become a continuous mass on the space-time-magnitude range of interest. For discrete predictions, we apply this method to evaluate performance of Shebalin's predictions made by using the Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) algorithm and of the outputs of the predictions from the Annual Consultation Meeting on Earthquake Tendency held by China Earthquake Administration. For the continuous case, we use it to compare the probability forecasts of seismicity in the Abruzzo region before and after the L'aquila earthquake based on the ETAS model and the PPE model.

  16. Characterizing the uncertainty in river stage forecasts conditional on point forecast values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Jun; Liao, Gong-Yi; Gebremichael, Mekonnen; Shedd, Robert; Vallee, David R.

    2012-12-01

    Uncertainty information about river level forecast is as important as the forecast itself for forecast users. This paper presents a flexible, statistical approach that processes deterministic forecasts into probabilistic forecasts. The model is a smoothly changing conditional distribution of river stage given point forecast and other information available, such as lagged river level at the time of forecasting. The parametric distribution is a four-parameter skewt distribution, with each parameter modeled as a smooth function of the point forecast and the 1 day ago observed river level. The model was applied to 9 years of daily 6 h lead forecasts and 24 h lead forecasts in the warm season and their matching observations at the Plymouth station on the Pemigewasset River in New Hampshire. For each point forecast, the conditional distribution and resulting prediction intervals provide uncertainty information that are potentially very important to forecast users and algorithm developers in decision making and improvement of forecast quality.

  17. Application of quantitative precipitation forecasting and precipitation ensemble prediction for hydrological forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, P.; Tie-Yuan, S.; Zhi-Yuan, Y.; Jun-Chao, W.

    2015-05-01

    The precipitation in the forecast period influences flood forecasting precision, due to the uncertainty of the input to the hydrological model. Taking the ZhangHe basin as the example, the research adopts the precipitation forecast and ensemble precipitation forecast product of the AREM model, uses the Xin Anjiang hydrological model, and tests the flood forecasts. The results show that the flood forecast result can be clearly improved when considering precipitation during the forecast period. Hydrological forecast based on Ensemble Precipitation prediction gives better hydrological forecast information, better satisfying the need for risk information for flood prevention and disaster reduction, and has broad development opportunities.

  18. Time series modelling and forecasting of emergency department overcrowding.

    PubMed

    Kadri, Farid; Harrou, Fouzi; Chaabane, Sondès; Tahon, Christian

    2014-09-01

    Efficient management of patient flow (demand) in emergency departments (EDs) has become an urgent issue for many hospital administrations. Today, more and more attention is being paid to hospital management systems to optimally manage patient flow and to improve management strategies, efficiency and safety in such establishments. To this end, EDs require significant human and material resources, but unfortunately these are limited. Within such a framework, the ability to accurately forecast demand in emergency departments has considerable implications for hospitals to improve resource allocation and strategic planning. The aim of this study was to develop models for forecasting daily attendances at the hospital emergency department in Lille, France. The study demonstrates how time-series analysis can be used to forecast, at least in the short term, demand for emergency services in a hospital emergency department. The forecasts were based on daily patient attendances at the paediatric emergency department in Lille regional hospital centre, France, from January 2012 to December 2012. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method was applied separately to each of the two GEMSA categories and total patient attendances. Time-series analysis was shown to provide a useful, readily available tool for forecasting emergency department demand. PMID:25053208

  19. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  20. Method Forecasts Global Energy Substitution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chemical and Engineering News, 1975

    1975-01-01

    Describes a model developed to forecast energy demands and determine trends in demand for primary fuels. The energy model essentially considers primary energy sources as competing commodities in a market. (MLH)

  1. Practical Meteor Stream Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooke, William J.; Suggs, Robert M.

    2003-01-01

    Inspired by the recent Leonid meteor storms, researchers have made great strides in our ability to predict enhanced meteor activity. However, the necessary calibration of the meteor stream models with Earth-based ZHRs (Zenith Hourly Rates) has placed emphasis on the terran observer and meteor activity predictions are published in such a manner to reflect this emphasis. As a consequence, many predictions are often unusable by the satellite community, which has the most at stake and the greatest interest in meteor forecasting. This paper suggests that stream modelers need to pay more attention to the needs of this community and publish not just durations and times of maxima for Earth, but everything needed to characterize the meteor stream in and out of the plane of the ecliptic, which, at a minimum, consists of the location of maximum stream density (ZHR) and the functional form of the density decay with distance from this point. It is also suggested that some of the terminology associated with meteor showers may need to be more strictly defined in order to eliminate the perception of crying wolf by meteor scientists. An outburst is especially problematic, as it usually denotes an enhancement by a factor of 2 or more to researchers, but conveys the notion of a sky filled with meteors to satellite operators and the public. Experience has also taught that predicted ZHRs often lead to public disappointment, as these values vastly overestimate what is seen.

  2. Preparing for an Uncertain Forecast

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karolak, Eric

    2011-01-01

    Navigating the world of government relations and public policy can be a little like predicting the weather. One can't always be sure what's in store or how it will affect him/her down the road. But there are common patterns and a few basic steps that can help one best prepare for a change in the forecast. Though the forecast is uncertain, early…

  3. Assessing the Potential of the AIRS Retrieved Surface Temperature for 6-Hour Average Temperature Forecast in River Forecast Centers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ding, F.; Theobald, M.; Vollmer, B.; Savtchenko, A. K.; Hearty, T. J.; Esfandiari, A. E.

    2012-12-01

    Producing timely and accurate water forecast and information is the mission of National Weather Service River Forecast Centers (NWS RFCs) of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The river forecast system in RFCs requires average surface temperature in the fixed 6-hour period 000-0600, 0600-1200, 1200-1800, and 1200-0000 UTC. The current logic of RFC temperature forecast relies on ingest of point values of daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperature. Meanwhile, the mean temperature for the 6-hour period is estimated from a weighted average of daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperature. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) in the first high spectral resolution infrared sounder on board the Aqua satellite which was launched in May 2002 and follows a Sun-synchronous polar orbit. It is aimed to produce high resolution atmospheric profile and surface atmospheric parameters. As Aqua crosses the equator at about 1330 and 0130 local time, the AIRS retrieved surface temperature may represent daytime maximum and nighttime minimum value. Comparing to point observation from surface weather stations which are often sparse over the less-populated area and are unevenly distributed, satellite may obtain better area averaged observation. This test study assesses the potential of using AIRS retrieved surface temperature to forecast 6-hour average temperature for NWS RFCs. The California Nevada RFC is selected due to the poor coverage of surface observation in the mountainous region and spring snow melting. The study focuses on the March to May spring season when water from snowpack melting often plays important role in flood. AIRS retrieved temperature and surface weather station data set will be used to derive statistical weighting coefficient for 6-hour average temperature forecast. The resulting forecast biases and errors will be the main indicators of the potential usage. All study results will be presented in the meeting.

  4. Municipal water consumption forecast accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fullerton, Thomas M.; Molina, Angel L.

    2010-06-01

    Municipal water consumption planning is an active area of research because of infrastructure construction and maintenance costs, supply constraints, and water quality assurance. In spite of that, relatively few water forecast accuracy assessments have been completed to date, although some internal documentation may exist as part of the proprietary "grey literature." This study utilizes a data set of previously published municipal consumption forecasts to partially fill that gap in the empirical water economics literature. Previously published municipal water econometric forecasts for three public utilities are examined for predictive accuracy against two random walk benchmarks commonly used in regional analyses. Descriptive metrics used to quantify forecast accuracy include root-mean-square error and Theil inequality statistics. Formal statistical assessments are completed using four-pronged error differential regression F tests. Similar to studies for other metropolitan econometric forecasts in areas with similar demographic and labor market characteristics, model predictive performances for the municipal water aggregates in this effort are mixed for each of the municipalities included in the sample. Given the competitiveness of the benchmarks, analysts should employ care when utilizing econometric forecasts of municipal water consumption for planning purposes, comparing them to recent historical observations and trends to insure reliability. Comparative results using data from other markets, including regions facing differing labor and demographic conditions, would also be helpful.

  5. Survey of air cargo forecasting techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuhlthan, A. R.; Vermuri, R. S.

    1978-01-01

    Forecasting techniques currently in use in estimating or predicting the demand for air cargo in various markets are discussed with emphasis on the fundamentals of the different forecasting approaches. References to specific studies are cited when appropriate. The effectiveness of current methods is evaluated and several prospects for future activities or approaches are suggested. Appendices contain summary type analyses of about 50 specific publications on forecasting, and selected bibliographies on air cargo forecasting, air passenger demand forecasting, and general demand and modalsplit modeling.

  6. HESS Opinions "Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wetterhall, F.; Pappenberger, F.; Alfieri, L.; Cloke, H. L.; Thielen-del Pozo, J.; Balabanova, S.; Daňhelka, J.; Vogelbacher, A.; Salamon, P.; Carrasco, I.; Cabrera-Tordera, A. J.; Corzo-Toscano, M.; Garcia-Padilla, M.; Garcia-Sanchez, R. J.; Ardilouze, C.; Jurela, S.; Terek, B.; Csik, A.; Casey, J.; Stankūnavičius, G.; Ceres, V.; Sprokkereef, E.; Stam, J.; Anghel, E.; Vladikovic, D.; Alionte Eklund, C.; Hjerdt, N.; Djerv, H.; Holmberg, F.; Nilsson, J.; Nyström, K.; Sušnik, M.; Hazlinger, M.; Holubecka, M.

    2013-11-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

  7. Modernizing Administration.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lombardi, Vincent L.; Hildebrand, Verna

    1981-01-01

    Suggests assignment of research duties and rotation of teaching and management roles for college administrators, to increase their effectiveness and diminish the negative effects of declining enrollments. (JD)

  8. Fields, Flares, And Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boucheron, L.; Al-Ghraibah, Amani; McAteer, J.; Cao, H.; Jackiewicz, J.; McNamara, B.; Voelz, D.; Calabro, B.; DeGrave, K.; Kirk, M.; Madadi, A.; Petsov, A.; Taylor, G.

    2011-05-01

    Solar active regions are the source of many energetic and geo-effective events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Understanding how these complex source regions evolve and produce these events is of fundamental importance, not only to solar physics, but also to the demands of space weather forecasting. We propose to investigate the physical properties of active region magnetic fields using fractal-, gradient-, neutral line-, emerging flux-, wavelet- and general image-based techniques, and to correlate them to solar activity. The combination of these projects with solarmonitor.org and the international Max Millenium Campaign presents an opportunity for accurate and timely flare predictions for the first time. Many studies have attempted to relate solar flares to their concomitant magnetic field distributions. However, a consistent, causal relationship between the magnetic field on the photosphere and the production of solar flares is unknown. Often the local properties of the active region magnetic field - critical in many theories of activity - are lost in the global definition of their diagnostics, in effect smoothing out variations that occur on small spatial scales. Mindful of this, our overall goal is to create measures that are sensitive to both the global and the small-scale nature of energy storage and release in the solar atmosphere in order to study solar flare prediction. This set of active region characteristics will be automatically explored for discriminating features through the use of feature selection methods. Such methods search a feature space while optimizing a criterion - the prediction of a flare in this case. The large size of the datasets used in this project make it well suited for an exploration of a large feature space. This work is funded through a New Mexico State University Interdisciplinary Research Grant.

  9. A new synthesis, characterization and application chelating resin for determination of some trace metals in honey samples by FAAS.

    PubMed

    Daşbaşı, Teslima; Saçmacı, Şerife; Çankaya, Nevin; Soykan, Cengiz

    2016-07-15

    In this study, we developed a simple and rapid solid phase extraction (SPE) method for the separation/preconcentration and determination of some trace metals by flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS). A new chelating resin, poly [2-(4-methoxyphenylamino)-2-oxoethyl methacrylate-co-divinylbenzene-co-2-acrylamido-2-methyl-1-propanesulfonic acid] (MPAEMA-co-DVB-co-AMPS), was synthesized and characterized. This chelating resin was used as a new adsorbent material for determination of Cd(II), Co(II), Cr(III), Cu(II), Fe(III), Mn(II), Pb(II), and Zn(II) ions. The parameters influential on the determination of this trace metals were examined. Under the optimum conditions, the detection limits (DL) of the method for trace metals were found to be (3s) in the range of 0.9-2.2 μg L(-1) (n=21), the preconcentration factor was calculated as 200 and the relative standard deviation was obtained achieved as ⩽2% for n=11. The method was performed for the determination of trace metals in some honey samples and standard reference materials. PMID:26948616

  10. Navigation and flight director guidance for the NASA/FAA helicopter MLS curved approach flight test program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Phatak, A. V.; Lee, M. G.

    1985-01-01

    The navigation and flight director guidance systems implemented in the NASA/FAA helicopter microwave landing system (MLS) curved approach flight test program is described. Flight test were conducted at the U.S. Navy's Crows Landing facility, using the NASA Ames UH-lH helicopter equipped with the V/STOLAND avionics system. The purpose of these tests was to investigate the feasibility of flying complex, curved and descending approaches to a landing using MLS flight director guidance. A description of the navigation aids used, the avionics system, cockpit instrumentation and on-board navigation equipment used for the flight test is provided. Three generic reference flight paths were developed and flown during the test. They were as follows: U-Turn, S-turn and Straight-In flight profiles. These profiles and their geometries are described in detail. A 3-cue flight director was implemented on the helicopter. A description of the formulation and implementation of the flight director laws is also presented. Performance data and analysis is presented for one pilot conducting the flight director approaches.

  11. [Two steps elution method FI on-line adsorption and preconcentration coupled with FAAS for the determination of trace zinc].

    PubMed

    Wang, Zhong-yuan; Zhang, Hong-kang; Fang, Hong-da; Su, Yao-dong; Mittal, Gauri S

    2011-12-01

    A flow injection two steps elution method on-line sorption and preconcentration system coupled to flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS) was developed for the determination of trace Zn in water samples. The conventional elution procedure was divided into two steps: elution procedure and detection procedure. During the elution procedure, the eluent was pumped into KR by the suction of the peristaltic pump and through PTFE tube instead of peristaltic pump tube. By the new method, the dispersion of the analyte was decreased notably, and high absorbance peak value was achieved. Because the eluent was not through the peristaltic pump tube, the peristaltic pump tube was protected from being eroded. Emptying procedure was added in order to insure the veracity and repeatability of the experiment of every time. With 60 s (sample throughput of 37 x h(-1)) of sampling at a flow rate of 6.0 mL x min(-1), an enhancement factor (EF) of 28 (higher than 9 achieved by conventional elution method) and a detection limit (3sigma) of 0.35 x L(-1) were obtained. The precision (RSD, n=11) was 2.1% at the 20 microg x L(-1) level. When 0.1% phi triethannolamine was used as masking reagent, the recovery rate was from 98.7% to 99.6%. PMID:22295800

  12. [Determination of six mineral elements in roots, stems, leaves, flowers and seeds of Scutellaria baicalensis by FAAS].

    PubMed

    Sheng, Ji-Ping; Chen, Hai-Rong; Shen, Lin

    2009-02-01

    A study was carried out on the contents of six trace elements, Ca, Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn and K, in roots, stems, leaves, flowers and seeds of planted Scutellaria baicalensis, by flame atomic absorption spectrophotometry (FAAS). The results indicated that Scutellaria baicalensis was rich in trace elements, meaning that it has a relatively high nutritive value. In stems of Scutellaria baicalensis, the content sequence of the six trace elements was found to be Fe > Mn > Zn = Cu > K > Ca. In leaves, the content sequence of the six trace elements was Fe> Mn > Zn > Cu > K > Ca. In flowers and seeds it was Ca > Fe > Mn > Zn > Cu > K, and Ca > Fe > Zn > Mn > Cu >K, separately, and in roots it was Ca > Fe > Cu > Mn > Zn > K. The stems, leaves, flowers and seeds are rich in Fe, whose content is higher than that in pork liver, Mn and Zn, but lower in Ca. The flowers, seeds and roots are especially rich in Ca, whose content is higher than that in bone, indicating that different parts of Scutellaria baicalensis may accumulate different mineral element. This study, for the first time, researched into Ca, Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn and K contents in different parts of Scutellaria baicalensis, which helps explain the multifunction of Scutellaria baicalensis and provides theoretical basis for further developing its medical and edible value. PMID:19445242

  13. Statistical earthquake focal mechanism forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D.

    2014-04-01

    Forecasts of the focal mechanisms of future shallow (depth 0-70 km) earthquakes are important for seismic hazard estimates and Coulomb stress, and other models of earthquake occurrence. Here we report on a high-resolution global forecast of earthquake rate density as a function of location, magnitude and focal mechanism. In previous publications we reported forecasts of 0.5° spatial resolution, covering the latitude range from -75° to +75°, based on the Global Central Moment Tensor earthquake catalogue. In the new forecasts we have improved the spatial resolution to 0.1° and the latitude range from pole to pole. Our focal mechanism estimates require distance-weighted combinations of observed focal mechanisms within 1000 km of each gridpoint. Simultaneously, we calculate an average rotation angle between the forecasted mechanism and all the surrounding mechanisms, using the method of Kagan & Jackson proposed in 1994. This average angle reveals the level of tectonic complexity of a region and indicates the accuracy of the prediction. The procedure becomes problematical where longitude lines are not approximately parallel, and where shallow earthquakes are so sparse that an adequate sample spans very large distances. North or south of 75°, the azimuths of points 1000 km away may vary by about 35°. We solved this problem by calculating focal mechanisms on a plane tangent to the Earth's surface at each forecast point, correcting for the rotation of the longitude lines at the locations of earthquakes included in the averaging. The corrections are negligible between -30° and +30° latitude, but outside that band uncorrected rotations can be significantly off. Improved forecasts at 0.5° and 0.1° resolution are posted at http://eq.ess.ucla.edu/kagan/glob_gcmt_index.html.

  14. Satellite freeze forecast system. Operating/troubleshooting manual

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martsolf, J. D. (Principal Investigator)

    1983-01-01

    Examples of operational procedures are given to assist users of the satellites freeze forecasting system (SFFS) in logging in on to the computer, executing the programs in the menu, logging off the computer, and setting up the automatic system. Directions are also given for displaying, acquiring, and listing satellite maps; for communicating via terminal and monitor displays; and for what to do when the SFFS doesn't work. Administrative procedures are included.

  15. Administrative Support.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doran, Dorothy; And Others

    This guide is intended to assist business education teachers in administrative support courses. The materials presented are based on the Arizona validated occupational competencies and tasks for the occupations of receptionist, secretary, and administrative assistant. Word processing skills have been infused into each of the three sections. The…

  16. Administrative Ecology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGarity, Augustus C., III; Maulding, Wanda

    2007-01-01

    This article discusses how all four facets of administrative ecology help dispel the claims about the "impossibility" of the superintendency. These are personal ecology, professional ecology, organizational ecology, and community ecology. Using today's superintendency as an administrative platform, current literature describes a preponderance of…

  17. CME Ensemble Forecasting - A Primer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pizzo, V. J.; de Koning, C. A.; Cash, M. D.; Millward, G. H.; Biesecker, D. A.; Codrescu, M.; Puga, L.; Odstrcil, D.

    2014-12-01

    SWPC has been evaluating various approaches for ensemble forecasting of Earth-directed CMEs. We have developed the software infrastructure needed to support broad-ranging CME ensemble modeling, including composing, interpreting, and making intelligent use of ensemble simulations. The first step is to determine whether the physics of the interplanetary propagation of CMEs is better described as chaotic (like terrestrial weather) or deterministic (as in tsunami propagation). This is important, since different ensemble strategies are to be pursued under the two scenarios. We present the findings of a comprehensive study of CME ensembles in uniform and structured backgrounds that reveals systematic relationships between input cone parameters and ambient flow states and resulting transit times and velocity/density amplitudes at Earth. These results clearly indicate that the propagation of single CMEs to 1 AU is a deterministic process. Thus, the accuracy with which one can forecast the gross properties (such as arrival time) of CMEs at 1 AU is determined primarily by the accuracy of the inputs. This is no tautology - it means specifically that efforts to improve forecast accuracy should focus upon obtaining better inputs, as opposed to developing better propagation models. In a companion paper (deKoning et al., this conference), we compare in situ solar wind data with forecast events in the SWPC operational archive to show how the qualitative and quantitative findings presented here are entirely consistent with the observations and may lead to improved forecasts of arrival time at Earth.

  18. Advances in Solar Power Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haupt, S. E.; Kosovic, B.; Drobot, S.

    2014-12-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research and partners are building a blended SunCast Solar Power Forecasting system. This system includes several short-range nowcasting models and improves upon longer range numerical weather prediction (NWP) models as part of the "Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting." The nowcasting models being built include statistical learning models that include cloud regime prediction, multiple sky imager-based advection models, satellite image-based advection models, and rapid update NWP models with cloud assimilation. The team has also integrated new modules into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to better predict clouds, aerosols, and irradiance. The modules include a new shallow convection scheme; upgraded physics parameterizations of clouds; new radiative transfer modules that specify GHI, DNI, and DIF prediction; better satellite assimilation methods; and new aerosol estimation methods. These new physical models are incorporated into WRF-Solar, which is then integrated with publically available NWP models via the Dynamic Integrated Forecast (DICast) system as well as the Nowcast Blender to provide seamless forecasts at partner utility and balancing authority commercial solar farms. The improvements will be described and results to date discussed.

  19. Automation of energy demand forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siddique, Sanzad

    Automation of energy demand forecasting saves time and effort by searching automatically for an appropriate model in a candidate model space without manual intervention. This thesis introduces a search-based approach that improves the performance of the model searching process for econometrics models. Further improvements in the accuracy of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models. This thesis introduces machine learning techniques that are capable of modeling such nonlinearity. Algorithms for learning domain knowledge from time series data using the machine learning methods are also presented. The novel search based approach and the machine learning models are tested with synthetic data as well as with natural gas and electricity demand signals. Experimental results show that the model searching technique is capable of finding an appropriate forecasting model. Further experimental results demonstrate an improved forecasting accuracy achieved by using the novel machine learning techniques introduced in this thesis. This thesis presents an analysis of how the machine learning techniques learn domain knowledge. The learned domain knowledge is used to improve the forecast accuracy.

  20. Dynamic SEP event probability forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.

    2015-10-01

    The forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) event probabilities at Earth has been based primarily on the estimates of magnetic free energy in active regions and on the observations of peak fluxes and fluences of large (≥ M2) solar X-ray flares. These forecasts are typically issued for the next 24 h or with no definite expiration time, which can be deficient for time-critical operations when no SEP event appears following a large X-ray flare. It is therefore important to decrease the event probability forecast with time as a SEP event fails to appear. We use the NOAA listing of major (≥10 pfu) SEP events from 1976 to 2014 to plot the delay times from X-ray peaks to SEP threshold onsets as a function of solar source longitude. An algorithm is derived to decrease the SEP event probabilities with time when no event is observed to reach the 10 pfu threshold. In addition, we use known SEP event size distributions to modify probability forecasts when SEP intensity increases occur below the 10 pfu event threshold. An algorithm to provide a dynamic SEP event forecast, Pd, for both situations of SEP intensities following a large flare is derived.

  1. Communicating Storm Surge Forecast Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troutman, J. A.; Rhome, J.

    2015-12-01

    When it comes to tropical cyclones, storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property along the coastal United States. The coastal population density has dramatically increased over the past 20 years, putting more people at risk. Informing emergency managers, decision-makers and the public about the potential for wind driven storm surge, however, has been extremely difficult. Recently, the Storm Surge Unit at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has developed a prototype experimental storm surge watch/warning graphic to help communicate this threat more effectively by identifying areas most at risk for life-threatening storm surge. This prototype is the initial step in the transition toward a NWS storm surge watch/warning system and highlights the inundation levels that have a 10% chance of being exceeded. The guidance for this product is the Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge (P-Surge) model, which predicts the probability of various storm surge heights by statistically evaluating numerous SLOSH model simulations. Questions remain, however, if exceedance values in addition to the 10% may be of equal importance to forecasters. P-Surge data from 2014 Hurricane Arthur is used to ascertain the practicality of incorporating other exceedance data into storm surge forecasts. Extracting forecast uncertainty information through analyzing P-surge exceedances overlaid with track and wind intensity forecasts proves to be beneficial for forecasters and decision support.

  2. Enhancement of hepatocarcinogenesis by sequential administration of chemicals: summation versus promotion effects.

    PubMed

    Williams, G M; Katayama, S; Ohmori, T

    1981-01-01

    A comparative study was made of the sequential administration of the liver carcinogen, diethylnitrosamine (DEN), or the liver tumor promoter, phenobarbital, given after the liver carcinogen, N-2-fluorenylacetamide (FAA). The effects of the second carcinogen on preneoplastic cellular lesions induced by the first carcinogen were comparable to the effects of the promoter. In addition, both sequential exposures enhanced the ultimate carcinogenic effect, although the combination of FAA followed by DEN resulted in a greater number of malignant neoplasms. Thus, enhancement of carcinogenesis by a second chemical cannot be used by itself as evidence of a promoting action. Approaches to the more precise definition of promoters include exclusion of genotoxicity, identification of epigenetic mechanisms and lack of a summation effect with administration prior to genotoxic carcinogens. PMID:6119166

  3. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; et al

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value ofmore » adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.« less

  4. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    SciTech Connect

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Finley, Catherine; Nakafuji, Dora; Peterson, Jack L.; Maggio, David; Marquis, Melinda

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value of adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.

  5. A multiple model assessment of seasonal climate forecast skill for applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lavers, David; Luo, Lifeng; Wood, Eric F.

    2009-12-01

    Skilful seasonal climate forecasts have potential to affect decision making in agriculture, health and water management. Organizations such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are currently planning to move towards a climate services paradigm, which will rest heavily on skilful forecasts at seasonal (1 to 9 months) timescales from coupled atmosphere-land-ocean models. We present a careful analysis of the predictive skill of temperature and precipitation from eight seasonal climate forecast models with the joint distribution of observations and forecasts. Using the correlation coefficient, a shift in the conditional distribution of the observations given a forecast can be detected, which determines the usefulness of the forecast for applications. Results suggest there is a deficiency of skill in the forecasts beyond month-1, with precipitation having a more pronounced drop in skill than temperature. At long lead times only the equatorial Pacific Ocean exhibits significant skill. This could have an influence on the planned use of seasonal forecasts in climate services and these results may also be seen as a benchmark of current climate prediction capability using (dynamic) couple models.

  6. Spectral Analysis of Forecast Error Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prive, N. C.; Errico, Ronald M.

    2015-01-01

    The spectra of analysis and forecast error are examined using the observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASAGMAO). A global numerical weather prediction model, the Global Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation, is cycled for two months with once-daily forecasts to 336 hours to generate a control case. Verification of forecast errors using the Nature Run as truth is compared with verification of forecast errors using self-analysis; significant underestimation of forecast errors is seen using self-analysis verification for up to 48 hours. Likewise, self analysis verification significantly overestimates the error growth rates of the early forecast, as well as mischaracterizing the spatial scales at which the strongest growth occurs. The Nature Run-verified error variances exhibit a complicated progression of growth, particularly for low wave number errors. In a second experiment, cycling of the model and data assimilation over the same period is repeated, but using synthetic observations with different explicitly added observation errors having the same error variances as the control experiment, thus creating a different realization of the control. The forecast errors of the two experiments become more correlated during the early forecast period, with correlations increasing for up to 72 hours before beginning to decrease.

  7. Medium Range Forecasts Representation (and Long Range Forecasts?)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vincendon, J.-C.

    2009-09-01

    The progress of the numerical forecasts urges us to interest us in more and more distant ranges. We thus supply more and more forecasts with term of some days. Nevertheless, precautions of use are necessary to give the most reliable and the most relevant possible information. Available in a TV bulletin or on quite other support (Internet, mobile phone), the interpretation and the representation of a medium range forecast (5 - 15 days) must be different from those of a short range forecast. Indeed, the "foresee-ability” of a meteorological phenomenon decreases gradually in the course of the ranges, it decreases all the more quickly that the phenomenon is of small scale. So, at the end of some days, the probability character of a forecast becomes very widely dominating. That is why in Meteo-France the forecasts of D+4 to D+7 are accompanied with a confidence index since around ten years. It is a figure between 1 and 5: the more we approach 5, the more the confidence in the supplied forecast is good. In the practice, an indication is supplied for period D+4 / D+5, the other one for period D+6 / D+7, every day being able to benefit from a different forecast, that is be represented in a independent way. We thus supply a global tendency over 24 hours with less and less precise symbols as the range goes away. Concrete examples will be presented. From now on two years, we also publish forecasts to D+8 / J+9, accompanied with a sign of confidence (" good reliability " or " to confirm "). These two days are grouped together on a single map because for us, the described tendency to this term is relevant on a duration about 48 hours with a spatial scale slightly superior to the synoptic scale. So, we avoid producing more than two zones of types of weather over France and we content with giving an evolution for the temperatures (still, in increase or in decline). Newspapers began to publish this information, it should soon be the case of televisions. It is particularly

  8. Verification of Ensemble Forecasts for the New York City Operations Support Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Day, G.; Schaake, J. C.; Thiemann, M.; Draijer, S.; Wang, L.

    2012-12-01

    forecasts is needed to verify that the post-processed forecasts are unbiased, statistically reliable, and preserve the skill inherent in the "raw" NWS ensemble forecasts. A verification procedure and set of metrics will be presented that provide an objective assessment of ensemble forecasts. The procedure will be applied to both raw ensemble hindcasts and to post-processed ensemble hindcasts. The verification metrics will be used to validate proper functioning of the post-processor and to provide a benchmark for comparison of different types of forecasts. For example, current NWS ensemble forecasts are based on climatology, using each historical year to generate a forecast trace. The NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) under development will utilize output from both the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Climate Forecast System (CFS). Incorporating short-term meteorological forecasts and longer-term climate forecast information should provide sharper, more accurate forecasts. Hindcasts from HEFS will enable New York City to generate verification results to validate the new forecasts and further fine-tune system operating rules. Project verification results will be presented for different watersheds across a range of seasons, lead times, and flow levels to assess the quality of the current ensemble forecasts.

  9. Smooth Sailing for Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Through a cooperative venture with NASA's Stennis Space Center, WorldWinds, Inc., developed a unique weather and wave vector map using space-based radar satellite information and traditional weather observations. Called WorldWinds, the product provides accurate, near real-time, high-resolution weather forecasts. It was developed for commercial and scientific users. In addition to weather forecasting, the product's applications include maritime and terrestrial transportation, aviation operations, precision farming, offshore oil and gas operations, and coastal hazard response support. Target commercial markets include the operational maritime and aviation communities, oil and gas providers, and recreational yachting interests. Science applications include global long-term prediction and climate change, land-cover and land-use change, and natural hazard issues. Commercial airlines have expressed interest in the product, as it can provide forecasts over remote areas. WorldWinds, Inc., is currently providing its product to commercial weather outlets.

  10. Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R.

    1995-05-01

    This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

  11. Forecasting improves for polar lows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thanks to a 3-year research program recently concluded by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute in Oslo, Norwegian meteorologists are better able to forecast the intense low-pressure phenomena that threaten the safety of the country's coastal areas during the winter season.During the course of the program, meteorologists developed and tested “objective forecasting methods,” as well as a numerical model suitable for small-scale weather phenomena. They also improved the processing of satellite data, and gained experience with the observing systems used, according to a bulletin prepared by the institute. The monitoring and forecasting systems should improve as the observation network improves and as the mesoscale numerical model is refined, explained Arne Grammeltvedt, director of the institute.

  12. Looking at the big scale - Global Flood Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burek, P.; Alfieri, L.; Thielen-del Pozo, J.; Muraro, D.; Pappenberger, F.; Krzeminsk, B.

    2012-04-01

    Reacting to the increasing need for better preparedness to worldwide hydrological extremes, the Joint Research Centre has joined forces with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), to couple state-of-the art weather forecasts with a hydrological model on global scale. On a pre-operationally basis a fully hydro-meteorological flood forecasting model is running since July 2011 and producing daily probabilistic discharge forecast with worldwide coverage and forecast horizon of about 1 month. An important aspect of this global system is that it is set-up on continental scale and therefore independent of administrative and political boundaries - providing downstream countries with information on upstream river conditions as well as continental and global overviews. The prototype of a Global Flood Alert System consists of HTESSEL land surface scheme coupled with LISFLOOD hydrodynamic model for the flow routing in the river network. Both hydrological models are set up on global coverage with horizontal grid resolution of 0.1° and daily time step for input and output data. To estimate corresponding discharge warning thresholds for selected return periods, the coupled HTESSEL-LISFLOOD hydrological model is driven with ERA-Interim input meteorological data for a 21 year period from 1989 onward. For daily forecasts the ensemble stream flow predictions are run by feeding Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System (VarEPS) weather forecasts into the coupled model. VarEPS consist of 51-member ensemble global forecasts for 15 days. The hydrological simulations are computed for a 45-day time horizon, to account the routing of flood waves through large river basins with time of concentration of the order of one month. Both results, the discharge thresholds from the long term run and the multiple hydrographs of the daily ensemble stream flow prediction are joined together to produce probabilistic information of critical threshold exceedance. Probabilistic

  13. Application of polyurethane foam loaded with BTAC in an on-line preconcentration system: cadmium determination by FAAS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lemos, Valfredo A.; Santelli, Ricardo E.; de Carvalho, Marcelo S.; Ferreira, Sérgio L. C.

    2000-09-01

    In the present paper, the use of polyurethane foam modified by 2-(2-benzothiazolylazo)-2- p-cresol (BTAC) as a sorbent in an on-line preconcentration system to determine cadmium trace levels by FAAS is proposed. The procedure was based on the chemical sorption of cadmium (II) ions onto a minicolumn packed with polyurethane foam, followed by 0.10 mol l -1 hydrochloric acid elution and direct determination by Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrometry. The flow system was operated in a time-based mode. Chemical and flow variables were studied. Results demonstrated that sample solutions containing cadmium(II) in the range of concentration from 0.91 to 30.00 μg l -1, pH between 6.50 and 9.25 could be determinated by this procedure, in a preconcentration time of 1 min. Flow rates in preconcentration and elution steps were 7.00 and 4.00 ml min -1, respectively. The precision of the preconcentration procedure (evaluated as standard deviation of solutions containing 1.0-30.0 μg l -1 of cadmium) varied in the range from 5 to 1%. The preconcentration factor, calculated as the ratio of the linear section of the slopes of the analytical curves before and after preconcentration, was 41, for a volume sample of 7.00 ml. The detection limit was 0.27 μg l -1 for a preconcentration time of 1 min. The proposed procedure was applied for determination of cadmium in biological reference materials. Achieved results demonstrated that the procedure can be applied for analysis of biological materials with satisfactory accuracy.

  14. GEM: Statistical weather forecasting procedure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, R. G.

    1983-01-01

    The objective of the Generalized Exponential Markov (GEM) Program was to develop a weather forecast guidance system that would: predict between 0 to 6 hours all elements in the airways observations; respond instantly to the latest observed conditions of the surface weather; process these observations at local sites on minicomputing equipment; exceed the accuracy of current persistence predictions at the shortest prediction of one hour and beyond; exceed the accuracy of current forecast model output statistics inside eight hours; and be capable of making predictions at one location for all locations where weather information is available.

  15. Acquisition forecast: Fiscal year 1995

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1995-01-01

    This volume includes projections of all anticipated FY95, and beyond, NASA contract actions above $25,000 that small and small disadvantaged businesses may be able to perform under direct contract with the government or as subcontractors. The forecast consolidates anticipated procurements at each NASA center into an agencywide report, with the aim of increasing industries' advance knowledge of NASA requirements and enhancing competition in contracting. Each center forecast report is divided into three principal categories of procurement: research and development, services, and supplies and equipment.

  16. American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) FEMP Technical Assistance Federal Aviation Administration – Project 209 Control Tower and Support Building, Reno, Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Arends, J.; Sandusky, William F.

    2010-06-30

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Redhorse Corporation (Redhorse) conducted an energy audit on the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) control tower and base building in Reno, Nevada. This report presents the findings of the energy audit team that evaluated construction documents and operating specifications (at the 100% level) and completed a site visit. The focus of the review was to identify measures that could be incorporated into the final design and operating specifications that would result in additional energy savings for the FAA that would not have otherwise occurred.

  17. American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) - FEMP Technical Assistance - Federal Aviation Administration - Project 209 - Control Tower and Support Building, Boise, Idaho

    SciTech Connect

    Arends, J.; Sandusky, William F.

    2010-06-28

    This report documents an energy audit performed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Redhorse Corporation (Redhorse) conducted on the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) control tower and base building in Boise, Idaho. This report presents findings of the energy audit team that evaluated construction documents and operating specifications (at the 100% level) followed by a site visit of the facility under construction. The focus of the review was to identify measures that could be incorporated into the final design and operating specifications that would result in additional energy savings for FAA that would not have otherwise occurred.

  18. Remotely Operated Aircraft (ROA) Impact on the National Airspace System (NAS) Work Package, 2005: Composite Report on FAA Flight Plan and Operational Evaluation Plan. Version 7.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this document is to present the findings that resulted from a high-level analysis and evaluation of the following documents: (1) The OEP (Operational Evolution Plan) Version 7 -- a 10-year plan for operational improvements to increase capacity and efficiency in U.S. air travel and transport and other use of domestic airspace. The OEP is the FAA commitment to operational improvements. It is outcome driven, with clear lines of accountability within FAA organizations. The OEP concentrates on operational solutions and integrates safety, certification, procedures, staffing, equipment, avionics and research; (2) The Draft Flight Plan 2006 through 2010 -- a multi-year strategic effort, setting a course for the FAA through 2001, to provide the safest and most efficient air transportation system in the world; (3) The NAS System Architecture Version 5 -- a blueprint for modernizing the NAS and improving NAS services and capabilities through the year 2015; and (4) The NAS-SR-1000 System Requirements Specification (NASSRS) -- a compilation of requirements which describe the operational capabilities for the NAS. The analysis is particularly focused on examining the documents for relevance to existing and/or planned future UAV operations. The evaluation specifically focuses on potential factors that could materially affect the development of a commercial ROA industry, such as: (1) Design limitations of the CNS/ATM system, (2) Human limitations, The information presented was taken from program specifications or program office lead personnel.

  19. Further increased production of free fatty acids by overexpressing a predicted transketolase gene of the pentose phosphate pathway in Aspergillus oryzae faaA disruptant.

    PubMed

    Tamano, Koichi; Miura, Ai

    2016-09-01

    Free fatty acids are useful as source materials for the production of biodiesel fuel and various chemicals such as pharmaceuticals and dietary supplements. Previously, we attained a 9.2-fold increase in free fatty acid productivity by disrupting a predicted acyl-CoA synthetase gene (faaA, AO090011000642) in Aspergillus oryzae. In this study, we achieved further increase in the productivity by overexpressing a predicted transketolase gene of the pentose phosphate pathway in the faaA disruptant. The A. oryzae genome is predicted to have three transketolase genes and overexpression of AO090023000345, one of the three genes, resulted in phenotypic change and further increase (corresponding to an increased production of 0.38 mmol/g dry cell weight) in free fatty acids at 1.4-fold compared to the faaA disruptant. Additionally, the biomass of hyphae increased at 1.2-fold by the overexpression. As a result, free fatty acid production yield per liter of liquid culture increased at 1.7-fold by the overexpression. PMID:26998626

  20. Forecast communication through the newspaper Part 1: Framing the forecaster

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, Andrew J. L.

    2015-04-01

    This review is split into two parts both of which address issues of forecast communication of an environmental disaster through the newspaper during a period of crisis. The first part explores the process by which information passes from the scientist or forecaster, through the media filter, to the public. As part of this filter preference, omission, selection of data, source, quote and story, as well as placement of the same information within an individual piece or within the newspaper itself, can serve to distort the message. The result is the introduction of bias and slant—that is, the message becomes distorted so as to favor one side of the argument against another as it passes through the filter. Bias can be used to support spin or agenda setting, so that a particular emphasis becomes placed on the story which exerts an influence on the reader's judgment. The net result of the filter components is either a negative (contrary) or positive (supportive) frame. Tabloidization of the news has also resulted in the use of strong, evocative, exaggerated words, headlines and images to support a frame. I illustrate these various elements of the media filter using coverage of the air space closure due to the April 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland). Using the British press coverage of this event it is not difficult to find examples of all media filter elements, application of which resulted in bias against the forecast and forecaster. These actors then became named and blamed. Within this logic, it becomes only too easy for forecasters and scientists to be framed in a negative way through blame culture. The result is that forecast is framed in such a way so as to cause the forecaster to be blamed for all losses associated with the loss-causing event. Within the social amplification of risk framework (SARF), this can amplify a negative impression of the risk, the event and the response. However, actions can be taken to avoid such an outcome. These actions

  1. What Can Computer Technology Offer Special Education Administrators?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Case, Elizabeth J.; And Others

    The paper provides an overview of fundamental uses of the microcomputer by special education administrators in a large-city school district. Microcomputer applications are suggested for the following applications: school-level administrative functions (e.g., tracking equipment repair, budget forecasting, and class scheduling); district-wide…

  2. Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence

    PubMed Central

    Mandel, David R.; Barnes, Alan

    2014-01-01

    The accuracy of 1,514 strategic intelligence forecasts abstracted from intelligence reports was assessed. The results show that both discrimination and calibration of forecasts was very good. Discrimination was better for senior (versus junior) analysts and for easier (versus harder) forecasts. Miscalibration was mainly due to underconfidence such that analysts assigned more uncertainty than needed given their high level of discrimination. Underconfidence was more pronounced for harder (versus easier) forecasts and for forecasts deemed more (versus less) important for policy decision making. Despite the observed underconfidence, there was a paucity of forecasts in the least informative 0.4–0.6 probability range. Recalibrating the forecasts substantially reduced underconfidence. The findings offer cause for tempered optimism about the accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts and indicate that intelligence producers aim to promote informativeness while avoiding overstatement. PMID:25024176

  3. A Delphi forecast of technology in education

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robinson, B. E.

    1973-01-01

    The results are reported of a Delphi forecast of the utilization and social impacts of large-scale educational telecommunications technology. The focus is on both forecasting methodology and educational technology. The various methods of forecasting used by futurists are analyzed from the perspective of the most appropriate method for a prognosticator of educational technology, and review and critical analysis are presented of previous forecasts and studies. Graphic responses, summarized comments, and a scenario of education in 1990 are presented.

  4. Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Information Technology and Services--Lessons from Home Video Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klopfenstein, Bruce C.

    1989-01-01

    Describes research that examined the strengths and weaknesses of technological forecasting methods by analyzing forecasting studies made for home video players. The discussion covers assessments and explications of correct and incorrect forecasting assumptions, and their implications for forecasting the adoption of home information technologies…

  5. Newsletter. Social and Human Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Istituto Ricerche Applicate Documentazione e Studi, Rome (Italy).

    The newsletter is not only a means of information on social and human forecasting but, moreover, a way of world intercommunication on the topic. Typical issues include current announcements and information (written primarily in English but also in other languages with English translations provided) on: 1) aims, intentions, and activities of…

  6. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

  7. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark

    2005-01-01

    The Applied Meteorology Unit developed a forecast tool that provides an assessment of the likelihood of local convective severe weather for the day in order to enhance protection of personnel and material assets of the 45th Space Wing Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), and Kennedy Space Center (KSC).

  8. Worldwide satellite market demand forecast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowyer, J. M.; Frankfort, M.; Steinnagel, K. M.

    1981-01-01

    The forecast is for the years 1981 - 2000 with benchmark years at 1985, 1990 and 2000. Two typs of markets are considered for this study: Hardware (worldwide total) - satellites, earth stations and control facilities (includes replacements and spares); and non-hardware (addressable by U.S. industry) - planning, launch, turnkey systems and operations. These markets were examined for the INTELSAT System (international systems and domestic and regional systems using leased transponders) and domestic and regional systems. Forecasts were determined for six worldwide regions encompassing 185 countries using actual costs for existing equipment and engineering estimates of costs for advanced systems. Most likely (conservative growth rate estimates) and optimistic (mid range growth rate estimates) scenarios were employed for arriving at the forecasts which are presented in constant 1980 U.S. dollars. The worldwide satellite market demand forecast predicts that the market between 181 and 2000 will range from $35 to $50 billion. Approximately one-half of the world market, $16 to $20 billion, will be generated in the United States.

  9. An Experiment in Probabilistic Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Thomas A.

    Students were asked to make forecasts of fourteen quantities where true values would not become known for five or six months. The quantities were selected to be typical of the subjects which would be of interest to a decisionmaker in business or government, and included GNP, consumer prices, draft calls, deaths in South Vietnam, and election…

  10. Understanding and Forecasting Ethnolinguistic Vitality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karan, Mark E.

    2011-01-01

    Forecasting of ethnolinguistic vitality can only be done within a well-functioning descriptive and explanatory model of the dynamics of language stability and shift. It is proposed that the Perceived Benefit Model of Language Shift, used with a taxonomy of language shift motivations, provides that model. The model, based on individual language…

  11. Military needs and forecast, 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goldstayn, Alan B.

    1986-01-01

    FORECAST 2 has accomplished its objectives of identifying high leverage technologies for corporate Air Force review. Implementation is underway with emphasis on restructuring existing programs and programming resources in the FY88 BES/FY89 POM. Many joint service/agency opportunities exist.

  12. In Brief: Forecasting meningitis threats

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2008-12-01

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), in conjunction with a team of health and weather organizations, has launched a project to provide weather forecasts to medical officials in Africa to help reduce outbreaks of meningitis. The forecasts will enable local health care providers to target vaccination programs more effectively. In 2009, meteorologists with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is managed by UCAR, will begin issuing 14-day forecasts of atmospheric conditions in Ghana. Later, UCAR plans to work closely with health experts from several African countries to design and test a decision support system to provide health officials with useful meteorological information. ``By targeting forecasts in regions where meningitis is a threat, we may be able to help vulnerable populations. Ultimately, we hope to build on this project and provide information to public health programs battling weather-related diseases in other parts of the world,'' said Rajul Pandya, director of UCAR's Community Building Program. Funding for the project comes from a $900,000 grant from Google.org, the philanthropic arm of the Internet search company.

  13. FASAL: an integrated approach for crop assessment and production forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parihar, Jai Singh; Oza, Markand P.

    2006-12-01

    India has a very well developed system for collection of crop statistics covering more than 50 crops at village level and aggregating it at different administrative levels. However, need for early and in-season crop production forecasting has been strongly felt. Remote sensing for crop assessment has been explored since very beginning of space applications in India. A nation-wide project called Crop Acreage and Production Estimation (CAPE) was launched at the behest of Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India in 1988. Major growing regions in the country for wheat, rice, cotton, groundnut, rapeseed/mustard and Rabi (winter) sorghum were covered. Production forecasts were made about a month before the harvesting using multi-band remote sensing data acquired at optimum bio-window and weather data. Ministry of Agriculture, satisfied with the performance of CAPE, came out with a request to target multiple crop production forecasts starting with crop sowing to end of season. Crop identification with remote sensing data requires using the data when crop has sufficiently grown. However, forecasting of crop at sowing stage would require use of weather data and information on economic factors controlling the farmer's response. Considering these things "Forecasting Agricultural output using Space, Agrometeorological and Land based observations (FASAL)" concept was devised. FASAL aims at using econometric models to forecast the area and production before the crop sowing operations. In unirrigated areas, information on amount and distribution of rainfall is being used for forecasting the crop acreage as well as yield. Remote sensing data, both optical and microwave form the core of crop area enumeration, crop condition assessment and production forecasting. Temporal remote sensing data is being used to monitor the crop through its growing period. Vegetation indices and weather parameter derived from surface and satellite observations will be used to develop the crop growth

  14. Possible future directions in crop yield forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colwell, J. E.

    1979-01-01

    This paper examines present and future possible applications of remote sensing to crop yield forecasting. It is concluded that there are ways in which Landsat data could be used to assist in crop yield forecasting using present technology. A framework for global crop yield forecasting which uses remote sensing, meteorological, field and ancillary data, as available, is proposed for the future.

  15. Beat the Instructor: An Introductory Forecasting Game

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Snider, Brent R.; Eliasson, Janice B.

    2013-01-01

    This teaching brief describes a 30-minute game where student groups compete in-class in an introductory time-series forecasting exercise. The students are challenged to "beat the instructor" who competes using forecasting techniques that will be subsequently taught. All forecasts are graphed prior to revealing the randomly generated…

  16. Methodological Problems in the Forecasting of Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kostanian, S. L.

    1978-01-01

    Examines how forecasting of educational development in the Soviet Union can be coordinated with forecasts of scientific and technical progress. Predicts that the efficiency of social forecasting will increase when more empirical data on macro- and micro-processes is collected. (Author/DB)

  17. Can Business Students Forecast Their Own Grade?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hossain, Belayet; Tsigaris, Panagiotis

    2013-01-01

    This study examines grade expectations of two groups of business students for their final course mark. We separate students that are on average "better" forecasters on the basis of them not making significant forecast errors during the semester from those students that are poor forecasters of their final grade. We find that the better…

  18. Use of Financial Forecasting in Educational Retrenchment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chabotar, Kent John

    1987-01-01

    Demonstrates local government's use of alternative forecasting techniques in school planning and retrenchment. Argues that forecasting is an art blending academic and political concerns. While statistical techniques and historical data are useful forecasting tools, the most significant influence should be school officials' plans and preferences.…

  19. 49 CFR 1540.115 - Threat assessments regarding citizens of the United States holding or applying for FAA...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY CIVIL AVIATION SECURITY CIVIL AVIATION SECURITY: GENERAL RULES... piracy or terrorism; (3) A threat to airline or passenger security; or (4) A threat to civil aviation... Federal Aviation Administration. Individual means an individual whom TSA determines poses a...

  20. 49 CFR 1540.115 - Threat assessments regarding citizens of the United States holding or applying for FAA...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY CIVIL AVIATION SECURITY CIVIL AVIATION SECURITY: GENERAL RULES... piracy or terrorism; (3) A threat to airline or passenger security; or (4) A threat to civil aviation... Federal Aviation Administration. Individual means an individual whom TSA determines poses a...

  1. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  2. Richardson's Barotropic Forecast: A Reappraisal.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lynch, Peter

    1992-01-01

    To elucidate his numerical technique and to examine the effectiveness of geostrophic initial winds, Lewis Fry Richardson carried out an idealized forecast using the linear shallow-water equations and simple analytical pressure and velocity fields. This barotropic forecast has been repeated and extended using a global numerical model, and the results are presented in this paper. Richardson's conclusions regarding the use of geostrophic winds as initial data are reconsidered.An analysis of Richardson's data into normal modes shows that almost 85% of the energy is accounted for by a single eigenmode, the gravest symmetric rotational Hough mode, which travels westward with a period of about five days. This five-day wave has been detected in analyses of stratospheric data. It is striking that the fields chosen by Richardson on considerations of smoothness should so closely resemble a natural oscillation of the atmosphere.The numerical model employed in this study uses an implicit differencing technique, which is stable for large time steps. The numerical instability that would have destroyed Richardson's barotropic forecast, had it been extended, is thereby circumvented. It is sometimes said that computational instability was the cause of the failure of Richardson's baroclinic forecast, for which he obtained a pressure tendency value two orders of magnitude too large. However, the initial tendency is independent of the time step (at least for the explicit scheme used by Richardson). In fact, the spurious tendency resulted from the presence of unrealistically large high-frequency gravity-wave components in the initial fields.High-frequency oscillations are also found in the evolution starting from the idealized data in the barotropic forecast. They are shown to be due to the gravity-wave components of the initial data. These oscillations may be removed by a slight modification of the initial fields. This initialization is effected by means of a simple digital filtering

  3. Administrative IT

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grayson, Katherine, Ed.

    2006-01-01

    When it comes to Administrative IT solutions and processes, best practices range across the spectrum. Enterprise resource planning (ERP), student information systems (SIS), and tech support are prominent and continuing areas of focus. But widespread change can also be accomplished via the implementation of campuswide document imaging and sharing,…

  4. Engineering Administration.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Naval Personnel Program Support Activity, Washington, DC.

    This book is intended to acquaint naval engineering officers with their duties in the engineering department. Standard shipboard organizations are analyzed in connection with personnel assignments, division operations, and watch systems. Detailed descriptions are included for the administration of directives, ship's bills, damage control, training…

  5. ADMINISTRATIVE CLIMATE.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    BRUCE, ROBERT L.; CARTER, G.L., JR.

    IN THE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICE, STYLES OF LEADERSHIP PROFOUNDLY AFFECT THE QUALITY OF THE SERVICE RENDERED. ACCORDINGLY, MAJOR INFLUENCES ON ADMINISTRATIVE CLIMATE AND EMPLOYEE PRODUCTIVITY ARE EXAMINED IN ESSAYS ON (1) SOURCES OF JOB SATISFACTION AND DISSATISFACTION, (2) MOTIVATIONAL THEORIES BASED ON JOB-RELATED SATISFACTIONS AND NEEDS,…

  6. Database Administrator

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moore, Pam

    2010-01-01

    The Internet and electronic commerce (e-commerce) generate lots of data. Data must be stored, organized, and managed. Database administrators, or DBAs, work with database software to find ways to do this. They identify user needs, set up computer databases, and test systems. They ensure that systems perform as they should and add people to the…

  7. On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts

    PubMed Central

    Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T. N.

    2014-01-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: how good are seasonal forecasts on a scale of 1–5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that ‘goodness’ should be assessed first and foremost in terms of the probabilistic reliability of these ensemble-based forecasts; reliable inputs are essential for any forecast-based decision-making. We propose that a ‘5’ should be reserved for systems that are not only reliable overall, but where, in particular, small ensemble spread is a reliable indicator of low ensemble forecast error. We study the reliability of regional temperature and precipitation forecasts of the current operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, universally regarded as one of the world-leading operational institutes producing seasonal climate forecasts. A wide range of ‘goodness’ rankings, depending on region and variable (with summer forecasts of rainfall over Northern Europe performing exceptionally poorly) is found. Finally, we discuss the prospects of reaching ‘5’ across all regions and variables in 30 years time. PMID:24789559

  8. ECMWF SSW forecast evaluation using infrasound

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smets, P. S. M.; Assink, J. D.; Le Pichon, A.; Evers, L. G.

    2016-05-01

    Accurate prediction of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events is important for the performance of numerical weather prediction due to significant stratosphere-troposphere coupling. In this study, for the first time middle atmospheric numerical weather forecasts are evaluated using infrasound. A year of near-continuous infrasound from the volcano Mount Tolbachik (Kamchatka, Russian Federation) is compared with simulations using high-resolution deterministic forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For the entire time span the nowcast generally performs best, indicated by a higher continuity of the predicted wavefront characteristics with a minimal back azimuth difference. Best performance for all forecasts is obtained in summer. The difference between the infrasound observations and the predictions based on the forecasts is significantly larger during the 2013 SSW period for all forecasts. Simulations show that the SSW onset is better captured by the 10 day forecast while the recovery is better captured by the nowcast.

  9. Climate Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Young, P. C.; Fildes, R.

    2009-04-01

    This paper will discuss various aspects of climate time series data analysis, modelling and forecasting being carried out at Lancaster. This will include state-dependent parameter, nonlinear, stochastic modelling of globally averaged atmospheric carbon dioxide; the computation of emission strategies based on modern control theory; and extrapolative time series benchmark forecasts of annual average temperature, both global and local. The key to the forecasting evaluation will be the iterative estimation of forecast error based on rolling origin comparisons, as recommended in the forecasting research literature. The presentation will conclude with with a comparison of the time series forecasts with forecasts produced from global circulation models and a discussion of the implications for climate modelling research.

  10. Univariate time series forecasting algorithm validation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ismail, Suzilah; Zakaria, Rohaiza; Muda, Tuan Zalizam Tuan

    2014-12-01

    Forecasting is a complex process which requires expert tacit knowledge in producing accurate forecast values. This complexity contributes to the gaps between end users and expert. Automating this process by using algorithm can act as a bridge between them. Algorithm is a well-defined rule for solving a problem. In this study a univariate time series forecasting algorithm was developed in JAVA and validated using SPSS and Excel. Two set of simulated data (yearly and non-yearly); several univariate forecasting techniques (i.e. Moving Average, Decomposition, Exponential Smoothing, Time Series Regressions and ARIMA) and recent forecasting process (such as data partition, several error measures, recursive evaluation and etc.) were employed. Successfully, the results of the algorithm tally with the results of SPSS and Excel. This algorithm will not just benefit forecaster but also end users that lacking in depth knowledge of forecasting process.

  11. Multi-model ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones in 2010 and 2011 based on the Kalman Filter method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Chengfei; Zhi, Xiefei; You, Qinglong; Song, Bin; Fraedrich, Klaus

    2015-08-01

    This study conducted 24- to 72-h multi-model ensemble forecasts to explore the tracks and intensities (central mean sea level pressure) of tropical cyclones (TCs). Forecast data for the northwestern Pacific basin in 2010 and 2011 were selected from the China Meteorological Administration, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Japan Meteorological Agency, and National Centers for Environmental Prediction datasets of the Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment Interactive Grand Global Ensemble project. The Kalman Filter was employed to conduct the TC forecasts, along with the ensemble mean and super-ensemble for comparison. The following results were obtained: (1) The statistical-dynamic Kalman Filter, in which recent observations are given more importance and model weighting coefficients are adjusted over time, produced quite different results from that of the super-ensemble. (2) The Kalman Filter reduced the TC mean absolute track forecast error by approximately 50, 80 and 100 km in the 24-, 48- and 72-h forecasts, respectively, compared with the best individual model (ECMWF). Also, the intensity forecasts were improved by the Kalman Filter to some extent in terms of average intensity deviation (AID) and correlation coefficients with reanalysis intensity data. Overall, the Kalman Filter technique performed better compared to multi-models, the ensemble mean, and the super-ensemble in 3-day forecasts. The implication of this study is that this technique appears to be a very promising statistical-dynamic method for multi-model ensemble forecasts of TCs.

  12. 49 CFR 1540.115 - Threat assessments regarding citizens of the United States holding or applying for FAA...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ....115 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) TRANSPORTATION SECURITY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY CIVIL AVIATION SECURITY CIVIL AVIATION SECURITY: GENERAL RULES...) Applicability. This section applies when TSA has determined that an individual who is a United States...

  13. 49 CFR 1540.115 - Threat assessments regarding citizens of the United States holding or applying for FAA...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ....115 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) TRANSPORTATION SECURITY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY CIVIL AVIATION SECURITY CIVIL AVIATION SECURITY: GENERAL RULES...) Applicability. This section applies when TSA has determined that an individual who is a United States...

  14. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  15. Airfreight forecasting methodology and results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1978-01-01

    A series of econometric behavioral equations was developed to explain and forecast the evolution of airfreight traffic demand for the total U.S. domestic airfreight system, the total U.S. international airfreight system, and the total scheduled international cargo traffic carried by the top 44 foreign airlines. The basic explanatory variables used in these macromodels were the real gross national products of the countries involved and a measure of relative transportation costs. The results of the econometric analysis reveal that the models explain more than 99 percent of the historical evolution of freight traffic. The long term traffic forecasts generated with these models are based on scenarios of the likely economic outlook in the United States and 31 major foreign countries.

  16. Errors in Moral Forecasting: Perceptions of Affect Shape the Gap Between Moral Behaviors and Moral Forecasts.

    PubMed

    Teper, Rimma; Tullett, Alexa M; Page-Gould, Elizabeth; Inzlicht, Michael

    2015-07-01

    Research in moral decision making has shown that there may not be a one-to-one relationship between peoples' moral forecasts and behaviors. Although past work suggests that physiological arousal may account for part of the behavior-forecasting discrepancy, whether or not perceptions of affect play an important determinant remains unclear. Here, we investigate whether this discrepancy may arise because people fail to anticipate how they will feel in morally significant situations. In Study 1, forecasters predicted cheating significantly more on a test than participants in a behavior condition actually cheated. Importantly, forecasters who received false somatic feedback, indicative of high arousal, produced forecasts that aligned more closely with behaviors. In Study 2, forecasters who misattributed their arousal to an extraneous source forecasted cheating significantly more. In Study 3, higher dispositional emotional awareness was related to less forecasted cheating. These findings suggest that perceptions of affect play a key role in the behavior-forecasting dissociation. PMID:25900823

  17. Probabilistic Downscaling Methods for Developing Categorical Streamflow Forecasts using Climate Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazrooei, A. H.

    2015-12-01

    Statistical information from climate forecast ensembles can be utilized in developing probabilistic streamflow forecasts for providing the uncertainty in streamflow forecast potential. This study examines the use of Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) in downscaling the probabilistic information from the large-scale climate forecast ensembles into a point-scale categorical streamflow forecasts. Performance of MLR in developing one-month lead categorical forecasts is evaluated for various river basins over the US Sunbelt. Comparison of MLR with the estimated categorical forecasts from Principle Component Regression (PCR) method under both cross-validation and split-sampling validation reveals that in general the forecasts from MLR has better performance and lower Rank Probability Score (RPS) compared to the PCR forecasts. In addition, MLR performs better than PCR method particularly in arid basins that exhibit strong skewness in seasonal flows with records of distinct dry years. A theoretical underpinning for this improved performance of MLR is also provided.

  18. Improving Forecasts for Water Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arumugam, Sankar; Wood, Andy; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Schaake, John

    2014-01-01

    Recent advances in seasonal to interannual hydroclimate predictions provide an opportunity for developing a proactive approach toward water management. This motivated a recent AGU Chapman Conference (see program details at http://chapman.agu.org/watermanagement/). Approximately 85 participants from the United States, Oceania, Asia, Europe, and South America presented and discussed the current state of successes, challenges, and opportunities in seasonal to interannual hydroclimate forecasts and water management, and a number of key messages emerged.

  19. Post Processing Numerical Weather Prediction Model Rainfall Forecasts for Use in Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shrestha, D. L.; Robertson, D.; Bennett, J.; Ward, P.; Wang, Q. J.

    2012-12-01

    Through the water information research and development alliance (WIRADA) project, CSIRO is conducting research to improve flood and short-term streamflow forecasting services delivered by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. WIRADA aims to build and test systems to generate ensemble flood and short-term streamflow forecasts with lead times of up to 10 days by integrating rainfall forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and hydrological modelling. Here we present an overview of the latest progress towards developing this system. Rainfall during the forecast period is a major source of uncertainty in streamflow forecasting. Ensemble rainfall forecasts are used in streamflow forecasting to characterise the rainfall uncertainty. In Australia, NWP models provide forecasts of rainfall and other weather conditions for lead times of up to 10 days. However, rainfall forecasts from Australian NWP models are deterministic and often contain systematic errors. We use a simplified Bayesian joint probability (BJP) method to post-process rainfall forecasts from the latest generation of Australian NWP models. The BJP method generates reliable and skilful ensemble rainfall forecasts. The post-processed rainfall ensembles are then used to force a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall runoff model to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. The performance of the ensemble streamflow forecasts is evaluated on a number of Australian catchments and the benefits of using post processed rainfall forecasts are demonstrated.

  20. Short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting using operationally-produced single-valued streamflow forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Regonda, Satish; Seo, Dong-Jun; Lawrence, Bill

    2010-05-01

    We present a statistical procedure that generates short-term streamflow ensemble forecasts from single-valued, or deterministic, forecasts operationally produced by the National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFC). The resulting ensemble forecast provides an estimate of the uncertainty in the single-valued forecast to aid risk-based decision making by the emergency managers and by the users of the forecast products and services. The single-valued forecasts are produced at a 6-hr time step for 5 days into the future, and reflect single-valued short-term quantitative precipitation and temperature forecasts (QPF, QTF) and various run-time modifications (MOD), or manual data assimilation, by human forecasters to reduce various sources of error in the end-to-end forecast process. The proposed procedure generates 5 day-ahead ensemble traces of streamflow from a very parsimonious approximation of the conditional multivariate probability distribution of future streamflow given the single-valued streamflow forecasts, QPF and recent streamflow observations. For parameter estimation and evaluation, we used a 10-year archive of the single-valued river stage forecasts for six forecast points in Oklahoma produced operationally by the Arkansas-Red River Basin River Forecast Center (ABRFC). To evaluate the procedure, we carried out dependent and leave-one-year-out cross validation. The resulting ensemble hindcasts are then verified using the Ensemble Verification System (EVS) developed at the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD).

  1. Scorecard on winter weather forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richman, Barbara T.

    A comparison of the observed temperatures and precipitation for this past winter (maps on left) with predicted temperatures and precipitation (maps on right) shows that the National Weather Service (NWS) temperature prediction was below par, but that the NWS precipitation forecast was ‘quite good,’ according to Don L. Gilman, chief of the NWS long-range forecast branch. The predictions, issued November 29, 1982 (Eos, December 14, 1982, p. 1211), covered December, January, and February.NWS long-range forecasters had thought that frigid Arctic air would swoop far south to bring below-normal temperatures to the western United States. Instead, an east Pacific trough, which may have been the strongest since 1900, brought a strong influx of air from the west, according to Gilman. The intense, low-pressure anomaly in the east Pacific, with the strong westerly winds, teamed with heavy rains south and southwest of Hawaii and warm equatorial Pacific waters to bring warm, wet air to the western United States. The results (see maps): Throughout most of the country, observed temperatures were above normal (A) or normal (N), while observed precipitation was heavy (H) o r normal (no code). Below-normal temperatures (B) occurred only in a portion of the southcentral U.S. and the Florida Keys. Light precipitation (L) fell over two patches in the northern plains, in the Appalachian region, and along the Maine coast.

  2. Forecast of iceberg ensemble drift

    SciTech Connect

    El-Tahan, M.S.; El-Tahan, H.W.; Venkatesh, S.

    1983-05-01

    The objectives of the study are to gain a better understanding of the characteristics of iceberg motion and the factors controlling iceberg drift, and to develop an iceberg ensemble drift forecast system to be operated by the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service. An extensive review of field and theoretical studies on iceberg behaviour, and the factors controlling iceberg motion has been carried out. Long term and short term behaviour of icebergs are critically examined. A quantitative assessment of the effects of the factors controlling iceberg motion is presented. The study indicated that wind and currents are the primary driving forces. Coriolis Force and ocean surface slope also have significant effects. As for waves, only the higher waves have a significant effect. Iceberg drift is also affected by iceberg size characteristics. Based on the findings of the study a comprehensive computerized forecast system to predict the drift of iceberg ensembles off Canada's east coast has been designed. The expected accuracy of the forecast system is discussed and recommendations are made for future improvements to the system.

  3. Communicating uncertainty in hydrological forecasts: mission impossible?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, Maria-Helena; Mathevet, Thibault; Thielen, Jutta; Pappenberger, Florian

    2010-05-01

    Cascading uncertainty in meteo-hydrological modelling chains for forecasting and integrated flood risk assessment is an essential step to improve the quality of hydrological forecasts. Although the best methodology to quantify the total predictive uncertainty in hydrology is still debated, there is a common agreement that one must avoid uncertainty misrepresentation and miscommunication, as well as misinterpretation of information by users. Several recent studies point out that uncertainty, when properly explained and defined, is no longer unwelcome among emergence response organizations, users of flood risk information and the general public. However, efficient communication of uncertain hydro-meteorological forecasts is far from being a resolved issue. This study focuses on the interpretation and communication of uncertain hydrological forecasts based on (uncertain) meteorological forecasts and (uncertain) rainfall-runoff modelling approaches to decision-makers such as operational hydrologists and water managers in charge of flood warning and scenario-based reservoir operation. An overview of the typical flow of uncertainties and risk-based decisions in hydrological forecasting systems is presented. The challenges related to the extraction of meaningful information from probabilistic forecasts and the test of its usefulness in assisting operational flood forecasting are illustrated with the help of two case-studies: 1) a study on the use and communication of probabilistic flood forecasting within the European Flood Alert System; 2) a case-study on the use of probabilistic forecasts by operational forecasters from the hydroelectricity company EDF in France. These examples show that attention must be paid to initiatives that promote or reinforce the active participation of expert forecasters in the forecasting chain. The practice of face-to-face forecast briefings, focusing on sharing how forecasters interpret, describe and perceive the model output forecasted

  4. Assessment of reservoir system variable forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kistenmacher, Martin; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2015-05-01

    Forecast ensembles are a convenient means to model water resources uncertainties and to inform planning and management processes. For multipurpose reservoir systems, forecast types include (i) forecasts of upcoming inflows and (ii) forecasts of system variables and outputs such as reservoir levels, releases, flood damage risks, hydropower production, water supply withdrawals, water quality conditions, navigation opportunities, and environmental flows, among others. Forecasts of system variables and outputs are conditional on forecasted inflows as well as on specific management policies and can provide useful information for decision-making processes. Unlike inflow forecasts (in ensemble or other forms), which have been the subject of many previous studies, reservoir system variable and output forecasts are not formally assessed in water resources management theory or practice. This article addresses this gap and develops methods to rectify potential reservoir system forecast inconsistencies and improve the quality of management-relevant information provided to stakeholders and managers. The overarching conclusion is that system variable and output forecast consistency is critical for robust reservoir management and needs to be routinely assessed for any management model used to inform planning and management processes. The above are demonstrated through an application from the Sacramento-American-San Joaquin reservoir system in northern California.

  5. Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2012-01-01

    Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare

  6. Evaluation of seasonal forecast skill over China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roads, John O.; Chen, Shyh-Chin

    2003-06-01

    Since Sept. 26, 1997, the Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) has been making experimental, near real-time seasonal global forecasts. Images of these forecasts, at daily to seasonal time scales, are provided on the World Wide Web, and experimental digital forecast products are made available to international collaborators. Over Asia, these experimental forecasts are now being used to drive regional prediction and various application models at National Taiwan University (NTU) and the Hong Kong Observatory. Roads et al. [Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 82 (2001) 639] and Terra Chen et al. [Atmos. Oceanogr. Sci. 12 (2003a) 377] previously discussed the basic forecast and analysis system. The purpose of this paper is to discuss specific synoptic characteristics of recent seasonal forecasts as a guide to further application and development.

  7. ECMWF SSW forecast evaluation using infrasound

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smets, Pieter; Assink, Jelle; Le Pichon, Alexis; Evers, Läslo

    2016-04-01

    Accurate prediction of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events is important for the performance of numerical weather prediction due to significant stratosphere--troposphere coupling. In this study, for the first time middle atmospheric numerical weather forecasts are evaluated using infrasound. A year of near continuous infrasound from Mt. Tolbachik (Kamchatka, Russian Federation) is compared with simulations using high resolution deterministic forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For the entire timespan the nowcast generally performs best, indicated by a higher continuity and and smaller bearing difference. However, focussing on the period around the 2013 major SSW shows that while the SSW onset is better captured by the ten day forecast, the recovery is better captured by the nowcast. As such, this study demonstrates the use of infrasound in the evaluation of middle atmospheric weather forecasts and therefore its potential in the assessment of tropospheric forecast skill.

  8. How rolling forecasting facilitates dynamic, agile planning.

    PubMed

    Miller, Debra; Allen, Michael; Schnittger, Stephanie; Hackman, Theresa

    2013-11-01

    Rolling forecasting may be used to replace or supplement the annual budget process. The rolling forecast typically builds on the organization's strategic financial plan, focusing on the first three years of plan projections and comparing the strategic financial plan assumptions with the organization's expected trajectory. Leaders can then identify and respond to gaps between the rolling forecast and the strategic financial plan on an ongoing basis. PMID:24340653

  9. Seasonal hydrological ensemble forecasts over Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Pappenberger, Florian

    2015-04-01

    Seasonal forecasts have an important socio-economic value in hydro-meteorological forecasting. The applications are for example hydropower management, spring flood prediction and water resources management. The latter includes prediction of low flows, primordial for navigation, water quality assessment, droughts and agricultural water needs. Traditionally, seasonal hydrological forecasts are done using the observed discharge from previous years, so called Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). With the recent increasing development of seasonal meteorological forecasts, the incentive for developing and improving seasonal hydrological forecasts is great. In this study, a seasonal hydrological forecast, driven by the ECMWF's System 4 (SEA), was compared with an ESP of modelled discharge using observations. The hydrological model used for both forecasts was the LISFLOOD model, run over a European domain with a spatial resolution of 5 km. The forecasts were produced from 1990 until the present time, with a daily time step. They were issued once a month with a lead time of seven months. The SEA forecasts are constituted of 15 ensemble members, extended to 51 members every three months. The ESP forecasts comprise 20 ensembles and served as a benchmark for this comparative study. The forecast systems were compared using a diverse set of verification metrics, such as continuous ranked probability scores, ROC curves, anomaly correlation coefficients and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients. These metrics were computed over several time-scales, ranging from a weekly to a six-months basis, for each season. The evaluation enabled the investigation of several aspects of seasonal forecasting, such as limits of predictability, timing of high and low flows, as well as exceedance of percentiles. The analysis aimed at exploring the spatial distribution and timely evolution of the limits of predictability.

  10. Operational Short-Term Flood Forecasting for Bangladesh: Application of ECMWF Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hopson, T. M.; Webster, P. J.

    2004-12-01

    The country of Bangladesh frequently experiences severe catchment-scale flooding from the combined discharges of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. Beginning in 2003, we have been disseminating upper-catchment discharge forecasts for this country to provide advanced warning for evacuation and relief measures. These forecasts are being generated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) shortterm ensemble weather forecasts and a combination of distributed and data-based modeling techniques. The forecasts from each of these models are combined using the multi-ensemble technique commonly employed in numerical weather prediction. This leads to a reduction in the overall forecast error and capitalizes on the strengths of each model during different periods of the monsoon season. In addition, the models are combined such that the probabilistic nature of the ensemble precipitation forecasts is retained while being combined with the discharge modeling error to produce true probabilistic forecasts of discharge that are being employed operationally.

  11. Next-Generation Severe Weather Forecasting and Communication

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rothfusz, Lans P.; Karstens, Christopher; Hilderband, Douglas

    2014-09-01

    Despite advances in the hazardous weather predictive skills of forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) [Simmons and Sutter, 2011], the underlying methodologies used to generate severe weather watches (i.e., announcements that the potential for severe weather exists) and warnings (i.e., announcements that severe weather conditions are occurring or imminent) have changed little since they were first issued in 1965. The resulting text-based, deterministic (i.e., a single, most accurate value) messages lack the detail and flexibility to match the technology, science, diversity, lifestyles, and vulnerability of society today.

  12. Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

    1981-07-01

    Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

  13. Combining forecast weights: Why and how?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Yip Chee; Kok-Haur, Ng; Hock-Eam, Lim

    2012-09-01

    This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions, forecast weight averaging can lower the mean squared forecast error obtained from model averaging. In addition, we show that in a linear and homoskedastic environment, this superior predictive ability of forecast weight averaging holds true irrespective whether the coefficients are tested by t statistic or z statistic provided the significant level is within the 10% range. By theoretical proofs and simulation study, we have shown that model averaging like, variance model averaging, simple model averaging and standard error model averaging, each produces mean squared forecast error larger than that of forecast weight averaging. Finally, this result also holds true marginally when applied to business and economic empirical data sets, Gross Domestic Product (GDP growth rate), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Average Lending Rate (ALR) of Malaysia.

  14. Wheat yield forecasts using LANDSAT data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colwell, J. E.; Rice, D. P.; Nalepka, R. F.

    1977-01-01

    Several considerations of winter wheat yield prediction using LANDSAT data were discussed. In addition, a simple technique which permits direct early season forecasts of wheat production was described.

  15. Optimized Flood Forecasts Using a Statistical Enemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silver, Micha; Fredj, Erick

    2016-04-01

    The method presented here assembles an optimized flood forecast from a set of consecutive WRF-Hydro simulations by applying coefficients which we derive from straightforward statistical procedures. Several government and research institutions that produce climate data offer ensemble forecasts, which merge predictions from different models to gain a more accurate fit to observed data. Existing ensemble forecasts present climate and weather predictions only. In this research we propose a novel approach to constructing hydrological ensembles for flood forecasting. The ensemble flood forecast is created by combining predictions from the same model, but initiated at different times. An operative flood forecasting system, run by the Israeli Hydrological Service, produces flood forecasts twice daily with a 72 hour forecast period. By collating the output from consecutive simulation runs we have access to multiple overlapping forecasts. We then apply two statistical procedures to blend these consecutive forecasts, resulting in a very close fit to observed flood runoff. We first employ cross-correlation with a time lag to determine a time shift for each of the original, consecutive forecasts. This shift corrects for two possible sources of error: slow or fast moving weather fronts in the base climate data; and mis-calibrations of the WRF-Hydro model in determining the rate of flow of surface runoff and in channels. We apply this time shift to all consecutive forecasts, then run a linear regression with the observed runoff data as the dependent variable and all shifted forecasts as the predictor variables. The solution to the linear regression equation is a set of coefficients that corrects the amplitude errors in the forecasts. These resulting regression coefficients are then applied to the consecutive forecasts producing a statistical ensemble which, by design, closely matches the observed runoff. After performing this procedure over many storm events in the Negev region

  16. The Economic Value of Air Quality Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson-Sumo, Tasha

    Both long-term and daily air quality forecasts provide an essential component to human health and impact costs. According the American Lung Association, the estimated current annual cost of air pollution related illness in the United States, adjusted for inflation (3% per year), is approximately $152 billion. Many of the risks such as hospital visits and morality are associated with poor air quality days (where the Air Quality Index is greater than 100). Groups such as sensitive groups become more susceptible to the resulting conditions and more accurate forecasts would help to take more appropriate precautions. This research focuses on evaluating the utility of air quality forecasting in terms of its potential impacts by building on air quality forecasting and economical metrics. Our analysis includes data collected during the summertime ozone seasons between 2010 and 2012 from air quality models for the Washington, DC/Baltimore, MD region. The metrics that are relevant to our analysis include: (1) The number of times that a high ozone or particulate matter (PM) episode is correctly forecasted, (2) the number of times that high ozone or PM episode is forecasted when it does not occur and (3) the number of times when the air quality forecast predicts a cleaner air episode when the air was observed to have high ozone or PM. Our collection of data included available air quality model forecasts of ozone and particulate matter data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s AIRNOW as well as observational data of ozone and particulate matter from Clean Air Partners. We evaluated the performance of the air quality forecasts with that of the observational data and found that the forecast models perform well for the Baltimore/Washington region and the time interval observed. We estimate the potential amount for the Baltimore/Washington region accrues to a savings of up to 5,905 lives and 5.9 billion dollars per year. This total assumes perfect compliance with

  17. PM2.5 analog forecast and Kalman filter post-processing for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Djalalova, Irina; Delle Monache, Luca; Wilczak, James

    2015-10-01

    A new post-processing method for surface particulate matter (PM2.5) predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) developmental air quality forecasting system using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is described. It includes three main components: A real-time quality control procedure for surface PM2.5 observations; Model post-processing at each observational site using historical forecast analogs and Kalman filtering; Spreading the forecast corrections from the observation locations to the entire gridded domain.

  18. 1992 five year battery forecast

    SciTech Connect

    Amistadi, D.

    1992-12-01

    Five-year trends for automotive and industrial batteries are projected. Topic covered include: SLI shipments; lead consumption; automotive batteries (5-year annual growth rates); industrial batteries (standby power and motive power); estimated average battery life by area/country for 1989; US motor vehicle registrations; replacement battery shipments; potential lead consumption in electric vehicles; BCI recycling rates for lead-acid batteries; US average car/light truck battery life; channels of distribution; replacement battery inventory end July; 2nd US battery shipment forecast.

  19. Forecasting California’s earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kerr, R. A.

    1988-01-01

    For the first time, researchers have reached to a consensus on the threat of large earthquakes to California, things look no worse for Los Angles than before. It still has about a 60 percent chance of being shaken by a large earthquake sometime during the next 30 years. But other heavily populated areas of California, such as San Bernardino and the East Bay area of San Francisco, are now getting their fair share of attention. The new consensus also points up the considerable uncertainties invloved in earthquake forecasting

  20. Forecast Mekong: navigating changing waters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Powell, Janine

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is using research and data from the Mekong River Delta in Southeast Asia to compare restoration, conservation, and management efforts there with those done in other major river deltas, such as the Mississippi River Delta in the United States. The project provides a forum to engage regional partners in the Mekong Basin countries to share data and support local research efforts. Ultimately, Forecast Mekong will lead to more informed decisions about how to make the Mekong and Mississippi Deltas resilient in the face of climate change, economic stresses, and other impacts.

  1. Mental Models of Software Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hihn, J.; Griesel, A.; Bruno, K.; Fouser, T.; Tausworthe, R.

    1993-01-01

    The majority of software engineers resist the use of the currently available cost models. One problem is that the mathematical and statistical models that are currently available do not correspond with the mental models of the software engineers. In an earlier JPL funded study (Hihn and Habib-agahi, 1991) it was found that software engineers prefer to use analogical or analogy-like techniques to derive size and cost estimates, whereas curren CER's hide any analogy in the regression equations. In addition, the currently available models depend upon information which is not available during early planning when the most important forecasts must be made.

  2. Volcanic ash forecast transport and dispersion (VAFTAD) model

    SciTech Connect

    Heffter, J.L.; Stunder, B.J.B.

    1993-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) has developed a Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport And Dispersion (VAFTAD) model for emergency response use focusing on hazards to aircraft flight operations. The model is run on a workstation at ARL. Meteorological input for the model is automatically downloaded from the NOAA National Meteorological Center (NMC) twice-daily forecast model runs to ARL. Additional input for VAFTAD ragarding the volcanic eruption is supplied by the user guided by monitor prompts. The model calculates transport and dispersion of volcanic ash from an initial ash cloud that has reached its maximum height within 3 h of eruption time. The model assumes that spherical ash particles of diameters ranging from 0.3 to 30 micrometers are distributed throughout the initial cloud with a particle number distribution based on Mount St. Helens and Redoubt Volcano eruptions. Particles are advected horizontally and vertically by the winds and fall according to Stoke`s law with a slip correction. A bivariate-normal distribution is used for horizontally diffusing the cloud and determining ash concentrations. Model output gives maps with symbols representing relative concentrations in three flight layers, and throughout the entire ash cloud, for sequential 6- and 12-h time intervals. A verification program for VAFTAD has been started. Results subjectively comparing model ash cloud forecasts with satellite imagery for three separate 1992 eruptions of Mount Spurr in Alaska have been most encouraging.

  3. Statistical evaluation of CFS seasonal precipitation forecasts for large-scale droughts in Africa and India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siegmund, Jonatan; Bliefernicht, Jan; Laux, Patrick; Kunstmann, Harald

    2013-04-01

    Monthly and seasonal meteorological forecasts are routinely produced by several international weather services using global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. This kind of information can be used as source of information in operational hydrological monitoring and forecasting systems to improve early drought warnings. In March 2011, a new version of the global coupled model of the National Centre for Environmental Prediction, the Climate Forecast System (CFS) Version 2, became operational providing real-time ensemble forecasts up to nine months. However, a comprehensive analysis of the CFS forecast for the prediction of droughts in water stress regions has not yet been performed. In this study we evaluate the CFS precipitation forecasts for large-scale droughts that occurred during the rainy season in West Africa, East Africa and India. The target areas are large-scale river-basins like Volta (West Africa), Ganges (India) and the administrative area of Kenya. The forecasts are compared to monthly precipitation observations provided on a regular grid by the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre. In addition, the CFS performance is evaluated using areal monthly precipitation amount of the river basin of interest as an indicator for dry months. The verification is done for the period 1982-2009 using all ensemble members of the retrospective CFS archive. The outcomes of this study illustrate, that the CFS in some cases can simulate general features of the monthly precipitation regime for the respective river basins. However, an evaluation using the entire retrospective CFS forecasts demonstrates a low accuracy. Furthermore, the seasonal forecasts of monthly precipitation are characterized by a large over- and underestimation during the rainy season depending on the target region. In this presentation, the following issues are highlighted: (i) The performance of the CFS precipitation forecast for individual events such as the severe India drought in

  4. Seasonal forecast skill of Arctic sea ice area in a dynamical forecast system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sigmond, M.; Fyfe, J. C.; Flato, G. M.; Kharin, V. V.; Merryfield, W. J.

    2013-02-01

    AbstractWe assess the seasonal <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill of pan-Arctic sea ice area in a dynamical <span class="hlt">forecast</span> system that includes interactive atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice components. <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> skill is quantified by the correlation skill score computed from 12 month ensemble <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> initialized in each month between January 1979 to December 2009. We find that <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill is substantial for all lead times and predicted seasons except spring but is mainly due to the strong downward trend in observations for lead times of about 4 months and longer. Skill is higher when evaluated against an observation-based dataset with larger trends. The <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill when linear trends are removed from the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and verifying observations is small and generally not statistically significant at lead times greater than 2 to 3 months, except for January/February when <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill is moderately high up to an 11 month lead time. For short lead times, high trend-independent <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill is found for October, while low skill is found for November/December. This is consistent with the seasonal variation of observed lag correlations. For most predicted months and lead times, trend-independent <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill exceeds that of an anomaly persistence <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, highlighting the potential for dynamical <span class="hlt">forecast</span> systems to provide valuable seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011NHESS..11.1529V&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011NHESS..11.1529V&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Perturbation of convection-permitting NWP <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> for flash-flood ensemble <span class="hlt">forecasting</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Vincendon, B.; Ducrocq, V.; Nuissier, O.; Vié, B.</p> <p>2011-05-01</p> <p>Mediterranean intense weather events often lead to devastating flash-floods. Extending the <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> lead times further than the watershed response times, implies the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) to drive hydrological models. However, the nature of the precipitating events and the temporal and spatial scales of the watershed response make them difficult to <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, even using a high-resolution convection-permitting NWP deterministic <span class="hlt">forecasting</span>. This study proposes a new method to sample the uncertainties of high-resolution NWP precipitation <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> in order to quantify the predictability of the streamflow <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>. We have developed a perturbation method based on convection-permitting NWP-model error statistics. It produces short-term precipitation ensemble <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> from single-value meteorological <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>. These rainfall ensemble <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are then fed into a hydrological model dedicated to flash-flood <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> to produce ensemble streamflow <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>. The verification on two flash-flood events shows that this <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> ensemble performs better than the deterministic <span class="hlt">forecast</span>. The performance of the precipitation perturbation method has also been found to be broadly as good as that obtained using a state-of-the-art research convection-permitting NWP ensemble, while requiring less computing time.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1992JApMe..31..465Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1992JApMe..31..465Y"><span id="translatedtitle">A Streamflow <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> Model for Central Arizona.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Young, Kenneth C.; Gall, Robert L.</p> <p>1992-05-01</p> <p>A spring-runoff <span class="hlt">forecast</span> model for central Arizona was developed based on multiple discriminant analysis. More than 6500 potential predictor variables were analyzed, including local precipitation and temperature variables, as well as global sea level pressure variables. The <span class="hlt">forecast</span> model was evaluated on nine years exclusive of the years on which the model was based. <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span> are provided in the form of a cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the expected runoff, based on analogs. A ranked probability score to evaluate <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill for the cdf <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> was developed. Ranked probability skill scores ranged from 25% to 45%.Local and global <span class="hlt">forecast</span> models were developed and compared to the combined data source model. The global <span class="hlt">forecast</span> model was equivalent in skill to the local <span class="hlt">forecast</span> model. The combined model exhibited a marked improvement in skill over either the local or global models.Three recurrent patterns in the predictor variables used by the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> model are analyzed in some depth. Above-normal pressure at Raoul Island northeast of New Zealand 14 to 18 months prior to the event <span class="hlt">forecast</span> was found to be associated with above-normal runoff. A westward shift of the Bermuda high, as evidenced by the pressure change at Charleston, South Carolina, from December to August of the preceding year, was found to be associated with above-normal runoff. Above-normal pressure at Port Moresby, New Guinea coupled with below-normal pressure at San Diego, California, the month prior to the <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, was found to be associated with above-normal runoff.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009ems..confE..68W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009ems..confE..68W"><span id="translatedtitle">Improved low visibility <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> at Amsterdam Airport</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wijngaard, J.; Vogelezang, D.; Maat, N.; van Bruggen, H.</p> <p>2009-09-01</p> <p>Accurate, reliable and unambiguous information concerning the actual and expected (low) visibility conditions at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol is very important for the available operational flow capacity. Therefore visibility <span class="hlt">forecast</span> errors can have a negative impact on safety and operational expenses. KNMI has performed an update of the visibility <span class="hlt">forecast</span> system in close collaboration with the main users of the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> (Air Traffic Control, the airport authorities and KLM airlines). This automatic <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> system consists of a Numerical Weather Prediction Model (Hirlam) with a statistical post processing module on top of it. Output of both components is supplied to a human <span class="hlt">forecaster</span> who issues a special probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecast</span> bulletin. This bulletin is tailored to the specific requirements of the airport community. The improvements made to the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> system are twofold: 1) In addition to the Meteorological Optical Range (MOR) values, RVR (Runway Visual Range) is <span class="hlt">forecasted</span>. Since RVR depends on both MOR and the local Background Luminance, a (deterministic) statistical <span class="hlt">forecast</span> for the latter has been developed. 2) Another improvement was achieved by calculating joint probabilities for specific combinations of visibility and cloud base height for thresholds which have direct impact on the flow capacity at the airport. The development of this new visibility <span class="hlt">forecast</span> will be presented briefly. Also a few verification results will be shown to demonstrate the improvements made. Finally, the importance of explaining the user the use of the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> information, in relation to their decision making process, will be discussed. For that reason, a simple guideline model to make a cost-optimal choice will be introduced.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JHyd..538..754M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JHyd..538..754M"><span id="translatedtitle">Streamflow <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> using functional regression</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Masselot, Pierre; Dabo-Niang, Sophie; Chebana, Fateh; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.</p> <p>2016-07-01</p> <p>Streamflow, as a natural phenomenon, is continuous in time and so are the meteorological variables which influence its variability. In practice, it can be of interest to <span class="hlt">forecast</span> the whole flow curve instead of points (daily or hourly). To this end, this paper introduces the functional linear models and adapts it to hydrological <span class="hlt">forecasting</span>. More precisely, functional linear models are regression models based on curves instead of single values. They allow to consider the whole process instead of a limited number of time points or features. We apply these models to analyse the flow volume and the whole streamflow curve during a given period by using precipitations curves. The functional model is shown to lead to encouraging results. The potential of functional linear models to detect special features that would have been hard to see otherwise is pointed out. The functional model is also compared to the artificial neural network approach and the advantages and disadvantages of both models are discussed. Finally, future research directions involving the functional model in hydrology are presented.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013IJBm...57..813A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013IJBm...57..813A"><span id="translatedtitle">Phantosmia as a meteorological <span class="hlt">forecaster</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Aiello, S. R.; Hirsch, A. R.</p> <p>2013-09-01</p> <p>In normosmics, olfactory ability has been found to vary with ambient humidity, barometric pressure, and season. While hallucinated sensations of phantom pain associated with changes in weather have been described, a linkage to chemosensory hallucinations has heretofore not been reported. A 64-year-old white male with Parkinson's disease presents with 5 years of phantosmia of a smoky burnt wood which changed to onion-gas and then to a noxious skunk-onion excrement odor. Absent upon waking it increases over the day and persists for hours. When severe, there appears a phantom taste with the same qualities as the odor. It is exacerbated by factors that manipulate intranasal pressure, such as coughing. When eating or sniffing, the actual flavors replace the phantosmia. Since onset, he noted the intensity and frequency of the phantosmia <span class="hlt">forecasted</span> the weather. Two to 3 h before a storm, the phantosmia intensifies from a level 0 to a 7-10, which persists through the entire thunderstorm. Twenty years prior, he reported the ability to <span class="hlt">forecast</span> the weather, based on pain in a torn meniscus, which vanished after surgical repair. Extensive olfactory testing demonstrates underlying hyposmia. Possible mechanisms for such chemosensory-meteorological linkage includes: air pressure induced synesthesia, disinhibition of spontaneous olfactory discharge, exacerbation of ectopic discharge, affect mediated somatic sensory amplification, and misattribution error with expectation and recall bias. This is the first reported case of weather-induced exacerbation of phantosmia. Further investigation of the connection between chemosensory complaints and ambient weather is warranted.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.2307T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.2307T"><span id="translatedtitle">Earthquakes - Volcanoes (Causes and <span class="hlt">Forecast</span>)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tsiapas, E.</p> <p>2009-04-01</p> <p>EARTHQUAKES - VOLCANOES (CAUSES AND <span class="hlt">FORECAST</span>) ELIAS TSIAPAS RESEARCHER NEA STYRA, EVIA,GREECE TEL.0302224041057 tsiapas@hol.gr The earthquakes are caused by large quantities of liquids (e.g. H2O, H2S, SO2, ect.) moving through lithosphere and pyrosphere (MOHO discontinuity) till they meet projections (mountains negative projections or projections coming from sinking lithosphere). The liquids are moved from West Eastward carried away by the pyrosphere because of differential speed of rotation of the pyrosphere by the lithosphere. With starting point an earthquake which was noticed at an area and from statistical studies, we know when, where and what rate an earthquake may be, which earthquake is caused by the same quantity of liquids, at the next east region. The <span class="hlt">forecast</span> of an earthquake ceases to be valid if these components meet a crack in the lithosphere (e.g. limits of lithosphere plates) or a volcano crater. In this case the liquids come out into the atmosphere by the form of gasses carrying small quantities of lava with them (volcano explosion).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AdG....29...77S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AdG....29...77S"><span id="translatedtitle">The use of MOGREPS ensemble rainfall <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> in operational flood <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> systems across England and Wales</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Schellekens, J.; Weerts, A. H.; Moore, R. J.; Pierce, C. E.; Hildon, S.</p> <p>2011-03-01</p> <p>Operational flood <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> systems share a fundamental challenge: <span class="hlt">forecast</span> uncertainty which needs to be considered when making a flood warning decision. One way of representing this uncertainty is through employing an ensemble approach. This paper presents research funded by the Environment Agency in which ensemble rainfall <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are utilised and tested for operational use. The form of ensemble rainfall <span class="hlt">forecast</span> used is the Met Office short-range product called MOGREPS. It is tested for operational use within the Environment Agency's National Flood <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> System (NFFS) for England and Wales. Currently, the NFFS uses deterministic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> only. The operational configuration of the NFFS for Thames Region is extended to trial the use of the new ensemble rainfall <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> in support of probabilistic flood <span class="hlt">forecasting</span>. Evaluation includes considering issues of model performance, configuration (how to fit the ensemble <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> within the current configurations), data volumes, run times and options for displaying probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>. Although ensemble rainfall <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> available from MOGREPS are not extensive enough to fully verify product performance, it is concluded that their use within current Environment Agency regional flood <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> systems can provide better information to the <span class="hlt">forecaster</span> than use of the deterministic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> alone. Of note are the small number of false alarms of river flow exceedance generated when using MOGREPS as input and that small flow events are also <span class="hlt">forecasted</span> rather well, notwithstanding the rather coarse resolution of the MOGREPS grid (24 km) compared to the studied catchments. In addition, it is concluded that, with careful configuration in NFFS, MOGREPS can be used in existing systems without a significant increase in system load.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2015AGUFMGC11H1110M&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2015AGUFMGC11H1110M&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Modeled <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span> of Dengue Fever in San Juan, Puerto Rico Using NASA Satellite Enhanced Weather <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Morin, C.; Quattrochi, D. A.; Zavodsky, B.; Case, J.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Dengue fever (DF) is an important mosquito transmitted disease that is strongly influenced by meteorological and environmental conditions. Recent research has focused on <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> DF case numbers based on meteorological data. However, these <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> tools have generally relied on empirical models that require long DF time series to train. Additionally, their accuracy has been tested retrospectively, using past meteorological data. Consequently, the operational utility of the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are still in question because the error associated with weather and climate <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are not reflected in the results. Using up-to-date weekly dengue case numbers for model parameterization and weather <span class="hlt">forecast</span> data as meteorological input, we produced weekly <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> of DF cases in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Each week, the past weeks' case counts were used to re-parameterize a process-based DF model driven with updated weather <span class="hlt">forecast</span> data to generate <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> of DF case numbers. Real-time weather <span class="hlt">forecast</span> data was produced using the Weather Research and <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) system enhanced using additional high-resolution NASA satellite data. This methodology was conducted in a weekly iterative process with each DF <span class="hlt">forecast</span> being evaluated using county-level DF cases reported by the Puerto Rico Department of Health. The one week DF <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> were accurate especially considering the two sources of model error. First, weather <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> were sometimes inaccurate and generally produced lower than observed temperatures. Second, the DF model was often overly influenced by the previous weeks DF case numbers, though this phenomenon could be lessened by increasing the number of simulations included in the <span class="hlt">forecast</span>. Although these results are promising, we would like to develop a methodology to produce longer range <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> so that public health workers can better prepare for dengue epidemics.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.H12A..01B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.H12A..01B"><span id="translatedtitle">Conditional Monthly Weather Resampling Procedure for Operational Seasonal Water Resources <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Beckers, J.; Weerts, A.; Tijdeman, E.; Welles, E.; McManamon, A.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>To provide reliable and accurate seasonal streamflow <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> for water resources management several operational hydrologic agencies and hydropower companies around the world use the Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) procedure. The ESP in its original implementation does not accommodate for any additional information that the <span class="hlt">forecaster</span> may have about expected deviations from climatology in the near future. Several attempts have been conducted to improve the skill of the ESP <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, especially for areas which are affected by teleconnetions (e,g. ENSO, PDO) via selection (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 1999) or weighting schemes (Werner et al., 2004; Wood and Lettenmaier, 2006; Najafi et al., 2012). A disadvantage of such schemes is that they lead to a reduction of the signal to noise ratio of the probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecast</span>. To overcome this, we propose a resampling method conditional on climate indices to generate meteorological time series to be used in the ESP. The method can be used to generate a large number of meteorological ensemble members in order to improve the statistical properties of the ensemble. The effectiveness of the method was demonstrated in a real-time operational hydrologic seasonal <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> system for the Columbia River basin operated by the Bonneville Power <span class="hlt">Administration</span>. The <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill of the k-nn resampler was tested against the original ESP for three basins at the long-range seasonal time scale. The BSS and CRPSS were used to compare the results to those of the original ESP method. Positive <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill scores were found for the resampler method conditioned on different indices for the prediction of spring peak flows in the Dworshak and Hungry Horse basin. For the Libby Dam basin however, no improvement of skill was found. The proposed resampling method is a promising practical approach that can add skill to ESP <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> at the seasonal time scale. Further improvement is possible by fine tuning the method and selecting the most</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011AGUFM.H43A1179B&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011AGUFM.H43A1179B&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Verification of Advances in a Coupled Snow-runoff Modeling Framework for Operational Streamflow <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Barik, M. G.; Hogue, T. S.; Franz, K. J.; He, M.</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>The National Oceanic and Atmospheric <span class="hlt">Administration</span>'s (NOAA's) River <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> Centers (RFCs) issue hydrologic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> related to flood events, reservoir operations for water supply, streamflow regulation, and recreation on the nation's streams and rivers. The RFCs use the National Weather Service River <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> System (NWSRFS) for streamflow <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> which relies on a coupled snow model (i.e. SNOW17) and rainfall-runoff model (i.e. SAC-SMA) in snow-dominated regions of the US. Errors arise in various steps of the <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> system from input data, model structure, model parameters, and initial states. The goal of the current study is to undertake verification of potential improvements in the SNOW17-SAC-SMA modeling framework developed for operational streamflow <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>. We undertake verification for a range of parameters sets (i.e. RFC, DREAM (Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis)) as well as a data assimilation (DA) framework developed for the coupled models. Verification is also undertaken for various initial conditions to observe the influence of variability in initial conditions on the <span class="hlt">forecast</span>. The study basin is the North Fork America River Basin (NFARB) located on the western side of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in northern California. Hindcasts are verified using both deterministic (i.e. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency, root mean square error, and joint distribution) and probabilistic (i.e. reliability diagram, discrimination diagram, containing ratio, and Quantile plots) statistics. Our presentation includes comparison of the performance of different optimized parameters and the DA framework as well as assessment of the impact associated with the initial conditions used for streamflow <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> for the NFARB.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=wind&pg=5&id=EJ1064476','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=wind&pg=5&id=EJ1064476"><span id="translatedtitle">School Science Inspired by Improving Weather <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Reid, Heather; Renfrew, Ian A.; Vaughan, Geraint</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>High winds and heavy rain are regular features of the British weather, and <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> these events accurately is a major priority for the Met Office and other <span class="hlt">forecast</span> providers. This is the challenge facing DIAMET, a project involving university groups from Manchester, Leeds, Reading, and East Anglia, together with the Met Office. DIAMET is part…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PhDT.......268A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PhDT.......268A"><span id="translatedtitle">Solar power deployment: <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> and planning</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Alanazi, Mohana</p> <p></p> <p>The rapid growth of Photovoltaic (PV) technology has been very visible over the past decade. Recently, the penetration of PV plants to the existing grid has significantly increased. Such increase in the integration of solar energy has brought attention to the solar irradiance <span class="hlt">forecasting</span>. This thesis presents a thorough research of PV technology, how solar power can be <span class="hlt">forecasted</span>, and PV planning under uncertainty. Over the last decade, the PV was one of the fastest growing renewable energy technologies. However, the PV system output varies based on weather conditions. Due to the variability and the uncertainty of solar power, the integration of the electricity generated by PV system is considered one of the challenges that have confronted the PV system. This thesis proposes a new <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> method to reduce the uncertainty of the PV output so the power operator will be able to accommodate its variability. The new <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> method proposes different processes to be undertaken before the data is fed to the <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> model. The method converts the data sets included in the <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> from non-stationary data to a stationary data by applying different processes including: removing the offset, removing night time solar values, and normalization. The new <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> method aims to reduce the <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> error and analyzes the error effect on the long term planning through calculating the payback period considering different errors.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016Nonli..29.2888Z&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016Nonli..29.2888Z&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Analog <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> with dynamics-adapted kernels</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zhao, Zhizhen; Giannakis, Dimitrios</p> <p>2016-09-01</p> <p>Analog <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> is a nonparametric technique introduced by Lorenz in 1969 which predicts the evolution of states of a dynamical system (or observables defined on the states) by following the evolution of the sample in a historical record of observations which most closely resembles the current initial data. Here, we introduce a suite of <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> methods which improve traditional analog <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> by combining ideas from kernel methods developed in harmonic analysis and machine learning and state-space reconstruction for dynamical systems. A key ingredient of our approach is to replace single-analog <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> with weighted ensembles of analogs constructed using local similarity kernels. The kernels used here employ a number of dynamics-dependent features designed to improve <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill, including Takens’ delay-coordinate maps (to recover information in the initial data lost through partial observations) and a directional dependence on the dynamical vector field generating the data. Mathematically, our approach is closely related to kernel methods for out-of-sample extension of functions, and we discuss alternative strategies based on the Nyström method and the multiscale Laplacian pyramids technique. We illustrate these techniques in applications to <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> in a low-order deterministic model for atmospheric dynamics with chaotic metastability, and interannual-scale <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> in the North Pacific sector of a comprehensive climate model. We find that <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> based on kernel-weighted ensembles have significantly higher skill than the conventional approach following a single analog.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED082497.pdf','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED082497.pdf"><span id="translatedtitle">A Delphi <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> of Technology in Education.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Robinson, Burke E.</p> <p></p> <p>The <span class="hlt">forecast</span> reported here surveys expected utilization levels, organizational structures, and values concerning technology in education in 1990. The focus is upon educational technology and <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> methodology; televised instruction, computer-assisted instruction (CAI), and information services are considered. The methodology employed…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/Publications.htm?seq_no_115=300991','TEKTRAN'); return false;" href="http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/Publications.htm?seq_no_115=300991"><span id="translatedtitle">Climate <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> for corn producer decision making</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ars.usda.gov/services/TekTran.htm">Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>Corn is the most widely grown crop in the Americas, with annual production in the United States of approximately 332 million metric tons. Improved climate <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>, together with climate-related decision tools for corn producers based on these improved <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>, could substantially reduce uncertai...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70046866','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70046866"><span id="translatedtitle">Chesapeake Bay hypoxic volume <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and results</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Scavia, Donald; Evans, Mary Anne</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>The 2013 <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> - Given the average Jan-May 2013 total nitrogen load of 162,028 kg/day, this summer’s hypoxia volume <span class="hlt">forecast</span> is 6.1 km3, slightly smaller than average size for the period of record and almost the same as 2012. The late July 2013 measured volume was 6.92 km3.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li class="active"><span>22</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_22 --> <div id="page_23" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li class="active"><span>23</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="441"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=ARIMA&id=EJ842702','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=ARIMA&id=EJ842702"><span id="translatedtitle">Some Initiatives in a Business <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> Course</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Chu, Singfat</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p>The paper reports some initiatives to freshen up the typical undergraduate business <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> course. These include (1) students doing research and presentations on contemporary tools and industry practices such as neural networks and collaborative <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> (2) insertion of Logistic Regression in the curriculum (3) productive use of applets…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=social+AND+forecasting&pg=4&id=EJ547715','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=social+AND+forecasting&pg=4&id=EJ547715"><span id="translatedtitle">Methods and Techniques of Revenue <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Caruthers, J. Kent; Wentworth, Cathi L.</p> <p>1997-01-01</p> <p>Revenue <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> is the critical first step in most college and university budget-planning processes. While it seems a straightforward exercise, effective <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> requires consideration of a number of interacting internal and external variables, including demographic trends, economic conditions, and broad social priorities. The challenge…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1713443H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1713443H"><span id="translatedtitle">Flood <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> in Wales: Challenges and Solutions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>How, Andrew; Williams, Christopher</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>With steep, fast-responding river catchments, exposed coastal reaches with large tidal ranges and large population densities in some of the most at-risk areas; flood <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> in Wales presents many varied challenges. Utilising advances in computing power and learning from best practice within the United Kingdom and abroad have seen significant improvements in recent years - however, many challenges still remain. Developments in computing and increased processing power comes with a significant price tag; greater numbers of data sources and ensemble feeds brings a better understanding of uncertainty but the wealth of data needs careful management to ensure a clear message of risk is disseminated; new modelling techniques utilise better and faster computation, but lack the history of record and experience gained from the continued use of more established <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> models. As a flood <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> team we work to develop coastal and fluvial <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> models, set them up for operational use and manage the duty role that runs the models in real time. An overview of our current operational flood <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> system will be presented, along with a discussion on some of the solutions we have in place to address the challenges we face. These include: • real-time updating of fluvial models • rainfall <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> verification • ensemble <span class="hlt">forecast</span> data • longer range <span class="hlt">forecast</span> data • contingency models • offshore to nearshore wave transformation • calculation of wave overtopping</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002AGUFM.H12G..03W&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002AGUFM.H12G..03W&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Streamflow Ensemble Generation using Climate <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Watkins, D. W.; O'Connell, S.; Wei, W.; Nykanen, D.; Mahmoud, M.</p> <p>2002-12-01</p> <p>Although significant progress has been made in understanding the correlation between large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and regional streamflow anomalies, there is a general perception that seasonal climate <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are not being used to the fullest extent possible for optimal water resources management. Possible contributing factors are limited knowledge and understanding of climate processes and prediction capabilities, noise in climate signals and inaccuracies in <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>, and hesitancy on the part of water managers to apply new information or methods that could expose them to greater liability. This work involves a decision support model based on streamflow ensembles developed for the Lower Colorado River Authority in Central Texas. Predicative skill is added to ensemble <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> that are based on climatology by conditioning the ensembles on observable climate indicators, including streamflow (persistence), soil moisture, land surface temperatures, and large-scale recurrent patterns such as the El Ni¤o-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation. A Bayesian procedure for updating ensemble probabilities is outlined, and various skill scores are reviewed for evaluating <span class="hlt">forecast</span> performance. Verification of the ensemble <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> using a resampling procedure indicates a small but potentially significant improvement in <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill that could be exploited in seasonal water management decisions. The ultimate goal of this work will be explicit incorporation of climate <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> in reservoir operating rules and estimation of the value of the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010GeoJI.181..382Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010GeoJI.181..382Z"><span id="translatedtitle">Gambling scores for earthquake predictions and <span class="hlt">forecasts</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zhuang, Jiancang</p> <p>2010-04-01</p> <p>This paper presents a new method, namely the gambling score, for scoring the performance earthquake <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> or predictions. Unlike most other scoring procedures that require a regular scheme of <span class="hlt">forecast</span> and treat each earthquake equally, regardless their magnitude, this new scoring method compensates the risk that the <span class="hlt">forecaster</span> has taken. Starting with a certain number of reputation points, once a <span class="hlt">forecaster</span> makes a prediction or <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, he is assumed to have betted some points of his reputation. The reference model, which plays the role of the house, determines how many reputation points the <span class="hlt">forecaster</span> can gain if he succeeds, according to a fair rule, and also takes away the reputation points betted by the <span class="hlt">forecaster</span> if he loses. This method is also extended to the continuous case of point process models, where the reputation points betted by the <span class="hlt">forecaster</span> become a continuous mass on the space-time-magnitude range of interest. We also calculate the upper bound of the gambling score when the true model is a renewal process, the stress release model or the ETAS model and when the reference model is the Poisson model.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/5347900','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/5347900"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Forecast</span> of geothermal-drilling activity</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Mansure, A.J.; Brown, G.L.</p> <p>1982-07-01</p> <p>The number of geothermal wells that will be drilled to support electric power production in the United States through 2000 A.D. are <span class="hlt">forecasted</span>. Results of the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> are presented by 5-year periods for the five most significant geothermal resources.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED340733.pdf','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED340733.pdf"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> Enrollments with Fuzzy Time Series.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Song, Qiang; Chissom, Brad S.</p> <p></p> <p>The concept of fuzzy time series is introduced and used to <span class="hlt">forecast</span> the enrollment of a university. Fuzzy time series, an aspect of fuzzy set theory, <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> enrollment using a first-order time-invariant model. To evaluate the model, the conventional linear regression technique is applied and the predicted values obtained are compared to the…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=Overpopulation&pg=3&id=EJ078615','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=Overpopulation&pg=3&id=EJ078615"><span id="translatedtitle">Resources and Long-Range <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Smith, Waldo E.</p> <p>1973-01-01</p> <p>The author argues that <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> of quick depletion of resources in the environment as a result of overpopulation and increased usage may not be free from error. Ignorance still exists in understanding the recovery mechanisms of nature. Long-range <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are likely to be wrong in such situations. (PS)</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19730024131','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19730024131"><span id="translatedtitle">Techniques for <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> Air Passenger Traffic</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Taneja, N.</p> <p>1972-01-01</p> <p>The basic techniques of <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> the air passenger traffic are outlined. These techniques can be broadly classified into four categories: judgmental, time-series analysis, market analysis and analytical. The differences between these methods exist, in part, due to the degree of formalization of the <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> procedure. Emphasis is placed on describing the analytical method.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016EGUGA..1816659F&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016EGUGA..1816659F&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Evaluation and first <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> of the German Climate <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> System 1 (GCFS1)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Fröhlich, Kristina; Baehr, Johanna; Müller, Wolfgang; Bunzel, Felix; Pohlmann, Holger; Dobrynin, Mikhail</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>We present the near-operational seasonal <span class="hlt">forecast</span> system GCFS1 (German Climate <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> System version 1), based on the CMIP5 version of the global coupled climate model MPI-ESM-LR. For GCFS1 we also present a detailed assessment on the predictive skill of the model. GCFS1 has been developed in cooperation between the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, University of Hamburg and German Meteorological Service (DWD), the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are conducted by DWD. The system is running at ECMWF with a re-<span class="hlt">forecast</span> ensemble of 15 member and a <span class="hlt">forecast</span> ensemble of 30 member. The re-<span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are initialised with full field nudging in the atmosphere (using ERA Interim), in the ocean (using ORAS4) and in the sea-ice component (using NSIDC sea-ice concentration). For the initialization of the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> analyses from the ECMWF NWP model and recent ORAS4 analyses are taken. The ensemble perturbations are, for both re-<span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>, generated through bred vectors in the ocean which provide initial perturbations for the ensemble in combination with simple physics perturbations in the atmosphere. Evaluation of the re-<span class="hlt">forecasted</span> climatologies will be presented for different variables, start dates and regions. The first winter <span class="hlt">forecast</span> during the strong El Niño phase is also subject of evaluation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.2892H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.2892H"><span id="translatedtitle">Monthly <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> of agricultural pests in Switzerland</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hirschi, M.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Samietz, J.; Calanca, P.; Weigel, A. P.; Fischer, A. M.; Rotach, M. W.</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p>Given the repercussions of pests and diseases on agricultural production, detailed <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> tools have been developed to simulate the degree of infestation depending on actual weather conditions. The life cycle of pests is most successfully predicted if the micro-climate of the immediate environment (habitat) of the causative organisms can be simulated. Sub-seasonal pest <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> therefore require weather information for the relevant habitats and the appropriate time scale. The pest <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> system SOPRA (www.sopra.info) currently in operation in Switzerland relies on such detailed weather information, using hourly weather observations up to the day the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> is issued, but only a climatology for the <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> period. Here, we aim at improving the skill of SOPRA <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> by transforming the weekly information provided by ECMWF monthly <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> (MOFCs) into hourly weather series as required for the prediction of upcoming life phases of the codling moth, the major insect pest in apple orchards worldwide. Due to the probabilistic nature of operational monthly <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and the limited spatial and temporal resolution, their information needs to be post-processed for use in a pest model. In this study, we developed a statistical downscaling approach for MOFCs that includes the following steps: (i) application of a stochastic weather generator to generate a large pool of daily weather series consistent with the climate at a specific location, (ii) a subsequent re-sampling of weather series from this pool to optimally represent the evolution of the weekly MOFC anomalies, and (iii) a final extension to hourly weather series suitable for the pest <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> model. Results show a clear improvement in the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill of occurrences of upcoming codling moth life phases when incorporating MOFCs as compared to the operational pest <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> system. This is true both in terms of root mean squared errors and of the continuous rank probability scores of the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1997evwc.book.....K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1997evwc.book.....K"><span id="translatedtitle">Economic Value of Weather and Climate <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Katz, Richard W.; Murphy, Allan H.</p> <p>1997-06-01</p> <p>Weather and climate extremes can significantly impact the economics of a region. This book examines how weather and climate <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> can be used to mitigate the impact of the weather on the economy. Interdisciplinary in scope, it explores the meteorological, economic, psychological, and statistical aspects of weather prediction. Chapters by area specialists provide a comprehensive view of this timely topic. They encompass <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> over a wide range of temporal scales, from weather over the next few hours to the climate months or seasons ahead, and address the impact of these <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> on human behavior. Economic Value of Weather and Climate <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span> seeks to determine the economic benefits of existing weather <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> systems and the incremental benefits of improving these systems, and will be an interesting and essential text for economists, statisticians, and meteorologists.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/103301','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/103301"><span id="translatedtitle">Load <span class="hlt">forecast</span> and need for power</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p></p> <p>1995-10-01</p> <p>This portion of the Energy Vision 2020 draft report discusses the models used for <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> the load growth over the period of this report. To deal with uncertainties in load growth, TVA has used a range of <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>: low, medium, and high. Based on the medium <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, TVA has determined that an additional 800 MWe will be required by 1998 and 16,500 MWe by 2020. based on the high growth <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, additional power will be needed in 1997 and increasing thereafter. Based on the low growth <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, no additional capacity would be needed during the period of this report. These estimates include a reserve margin of 15% through 1997, 13% average through the period 1998 to 2010, and 12% average during the remainder of the reporting period.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/13795','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/13795"><span id="translatedtitle">Uncertainty in dispersion <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> using meteorological ensembles</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Chin, H N; Leach, M J</p> <p>1999-07-12</p> <p>The usefulness of dispersion <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> depends on proper interpretation of results. Understanding the uncertainty in model predictions and the range of possible outcomes is critical for determining the optimal course of action in response to terrorist attacks. One of the objectives for the Modeling and Prediction initiative is creating tools for emergency planning for special events such as the upcoming the Olympics. Meteorological <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> hours to days in advance are used to estimate the dispersion at the time of the event. However, there is uncertainty in any meteorological <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, arising from both errors in the data (both initial conditions and boundary conditions) and from errors in the model. We use ensemble <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> to estimate the uncertainty in the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and the range of possible outcomes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012HESSD...913569R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012HESSD...913569R"><span id="translatedtitle">Do probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> lead to better decisions?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ramos, M. H.; van Andel, S. J.; Pappenberger, F.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also start putting attention to ways of communicating the probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> to decision makers. Communicating probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> includes preparing tools and products for visualization, but also requires understanding how decision makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real-time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision makers. Answers were collected and analyzed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if indeed we make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/698698','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/698698"><span id="translatedtitle">Guideline for developing an ozone <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> program</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Dye, T.S.; MacDonald, C.P.; Anderson, C.B.</p> <p>1999-07-01</p> <p>The purpose of this document is to provide guidance to help air quality agencies develop, operate, and evaluate ozone <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> programs. This guidance document provides: Background information about ozone and the weather`s effect on ozone; A list of how ozone <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are currently used; A summary and evaluation of methods currently used to <span class="hlt">forecast</span> ozone; and Steps you can follow to develop and operate an ozone <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> program. The intended audience of this document is project managers, meteorologists, air quality analysts, and data analysts. Project managers can learn about the level of effort needed to set up and operate a <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> program. Meteorologists can learn about the various methods to predict ozone and the steps needed to create a program.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006SPIE.6358E..54C&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006SPIE.6358E..54C&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Demand <span class="hlt">forecast</span> model based on CRM</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cai, Yuancui; Chen, Lichao</p> <p>2006-11-01</p> <p>With interiorizing day by day management thought that regarding customer as the centre, <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> customer demand becomes more and more important. In the demand <span class="hlt">forecast</span> of customer relationship management, the traditional <span class="hlt">forecast</span> methods have very great limitation because much uncertainty of the demand, these all require new modeling to meet the demands of development. In this paper, the notion is that <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> the demand according to characteristics of the potential customer, then modeling by it. The model first depicts customer adopting uniform multiple indexes. Secondly, the model acquires characteristic customers on the basis of data warehouse and the technology of data mining. The last, there get the most similar characteristic customer by their comparing and <span class="hlt">forecast</span> the demands of new customer by the most similar characteristic customer.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2013HESS...17.2219R&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2013HESS...17.2219R&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Do probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> lead to better decisions?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ramos, M. H.; van Andel, S. J.; Pappenberger, F.</p> <p>2013-06-01</p> <p>The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also started focusing attention on ways of communicating the probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> to decision-makers. Communicating probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> includes preparing tools and products for visualisation, but also requires understanding how decision-makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision-makers. Answers were collected and analysed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if we indeed make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.G33A0831S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.G33A0831S"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> the Chilean Tsunami, February 27 2010</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sterling, K.; Knight, W.; Whitmore, P.</p> <p>2010-12-01</p> <p>The West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WC/ATWC) is responsible for issuing tsunami warnings, advisories, and watches for the United States and Canadian coastlines. Utilizing well defined criteria related to earthquake magnitude and location an initial alert message is transmitted. The situation is monitored closely and analyzed using <span class="hlt">forecast</span> models and real-time sea level observations. If a tsunami is detected then a tsunami warning, advisory, or watch is issued. On February 27, 2010 at 06:34:14 UTC, a M8.8 earthquake occurred off the coast of Maule, Chile, initiating a tsunami that propagated throughout the Pacific Ocean. With approximately 13 hours before the tsunami arrived on the US west coast, the WC/ATWC utilized all available <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> tools to refine predicted tsunami amplitudes and inundation estimates, thereby providing the best possible estimates to emergency managers and the public. The guidance from the tsunami <span class="hlt">forecast</span> models, used in concurrence with sea-level observations, resulted in a tsunami advisory being issued for the Pacific coastal regions of the United States and Canada, the extent of which was expanded and then decreased as the event evolved. The WC/ATWC used two tsunami <span class="hlt">forecast</span> models: the Alaska Tsunami <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> Model (ATFM) and the Short-term Inundation <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> for Tsunamis (SIFT) to formulate a solution. Each model provided an initial tsunami <span class="hlt">forecast</span> based on the earthquake magnitude and location that was subsequently refined over the following hours as Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) observations became available. After the DART data was assimilated into the models, the two <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> were used in conjunction to publicly issue predicted maximum amplitudes for 77 locations along the US west coast and in Alaska. As the tsunami reached the US coastline, tide gauge observations were used in scaling the <span class="hlt">forecasted</span> maximum amplitudes from the ATFM, thereby increasing the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> accuracy</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011EOSTr..92..186S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011EOSTr..92..186S"><span id="translatedtitle">Above-normal Atlantic basin hurricane season <span class="hlt">forecast</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Showstack, Randy</p> <p>2011-05-01</p> <p>Between three and six major hurricanes with winds of 111 miles per hour and greater could whip across the Atlantic basin during what is <span class="hlt">forecast</span> to be an above-normal 2011 hurricane season, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric <span class="hlt">Administration</span>'s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA CPC). Including those, there could be a total of 6-10 hurricanes with winds of 74 miles per hour or greater and 12-18 named storms with winds of 39 miles per hour or greater during the hurricane season, which officially begins on 1 June and lasts for 6 months, NOAA <span class="hlt">administrator</span> Jane Lubchenco said at a 19 May briefing. There is a 70% likelihood for these ranges occurring, according to NOAA.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li class="active"><span>23</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_23 --> <div id="page_24" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li class="active"><span>24</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="461"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMSM22D..08S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMSM22D..08S"><span id="translatedtitle">Space Weather <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span>: An Enigma</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sojka, J. J.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>-pipe" disciplines. The perceived progress in space weather understanding differs significantly depending upon which community (scientific, technology, <span class="hlt">forecaster</span>, society) is addressing the question. Even more divergent are these thoughts when the question is how valuable is the scientific capability of <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> space weather. This talk will discuss present day as well as future potential for <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> space weather for a few selected examples. The author will attempt to straddle the divergent community opinions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013Msngr.152...17S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013Msngr.152...17S"><span id="translatedtitle">Precipitable Water Vapour at the ESO Observatories: The Skill of the <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sarazin, M.; Kerber, F.; De Breuck, C.</p> <p>2013-06-01</p> <p>Atmospheric precipitable water vapour (PWV) above an observatory is a crucial parameter for the success and quality of submillimetre and mid-infrared science observations. High precision water vapour radiometers are deployed at the ESO observatories on Paranal (VLT) and Chajnantor (APEX and ALMA), providing continuous high time-resolution measurements of PWV. These data have been used to compare the actual conditions with the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> delivered by the publicly available Global <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> System provided by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric <span class="hlt">Administration</span>. The quality of these predictions has now reached a level at which it can contribute to optimising science operations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/980912','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/980912"><span id="translatedtitle">Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> to NYMEX Futures Prices</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.</p> <p>2010-01-04</p> <p>On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information <span class="hlt">Administration</span>'s (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price <span class="hlt">forecast</span> compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010PhDT........83L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010PhDT........83L"><span id="translatedtitle">Wind speed <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> for wind energy applications</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Liu, Hong</p> <p></p> <p>With more wind energy being integrated into our grid systems, <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> wind energy has become a necessity for all market participants. Recognizing the market demands, a physical approach to site-specific hub-height wind speed <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> system has been developed. This system is driven by the outputs from the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. A simple interpolation approach benchmarks the <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> accuracy inherited from GEM. Local, site specific winds are affected on a local scale by a variety of factors including representation of the land surface and local boundary-layer process over heterogeneous terrain which have been a continuing challenge in NWP models like GEM with typical horizontal resolution of order 15-km. In order to resolve these small scale effects, a wind energy industry standard model, WAsP, is coupled with GEM to improve the <span class="hlt">forecast</span>. Coupling the WAsP model with GEM improves the overall <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>, but remains unsatisfactory for <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> winds with abrupt surface condition changes. Subsequently in this study, a new coupler that uses a 2-D RANS model of boundary-layer flow over surface condition changes with improved physics has been developed to further improve the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> when winds coming from a water surface to land experience abrupt changes in surface conditions. It has been demonstrated that using vertically averaged wind speeds to represent geostrophic winds for input into the micro-scale models could reduce <span class="hlt">forecast</span> errors. The hub-height wind speed <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> could be further improved using a linear MOS approach. The <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> system has been evaluated, using a wind energy standard evaluation matrix, against data from an 80-m mast located near the north shore of Lake Erie. Coupling with GEM-LAM and a power conversion model using a theoretical power curve have also been investigated. For hub-height wind speeds GEM appears to perform better with a 15-Ian grid than the high resolution GEM-2.5Ian version at the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010WRR....46.3532B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010WRR....46.3532B"><span id="translatedtitle">A multisite seasonal ensemble streamflow <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> technique</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bracken, Cameron; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Prairie, James</p> <p>2010-03-01</p> <p>We present a technique for providing seasonal ensemble streamflow <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> at several locations simultaneously on a river network. The framework is an integration of two recent approaches: the nonparametric multimodel ensemble <span class="hlt">forecast</span> technique and the nonparametric space-time disaggregation technique. The four main components of the proposed framework are as follows: (1) an index gauge streamflow is constructed as the sum of flows at all the desired spatial locations; (2) potential predictors of the spring season (April-July) streamflow at this index gauge are identified from the large-scale ocean-atmosphere-land system, including snow water equivalent; (3) the multimodel ensemble <span class="hlt">forecast</span> approach is used to generate the ensemble flow <span class="hlt">forecast</span> at the index gauge; and (4) the ensembles are disaggregated using a nonparametric space-time disaggregation technique resulting in <span class="hlt">forecast</span> ensembles at the desired locations and for all the months within the season. We demonstrate the utility of this technique in skillful <span class="hlt">forecast</span> of spring seasonal streamflows at four locations in the Upper Colorado River Basin at different lead times. Where applicable, we compare the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> to the Colorado Basin River <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> Center's Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and the National Resource Conservation Service "coordinated" <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, which is a combination of the ESP, Statistical Water Supply, a principal component regression technique, and modeler knowledge. We find that overall, the proposed method is equally skillful to existing operational models while tending to better predict wet years. The <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> from this approach can be a valuable input for efficient planning and management of water resources in the basin.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013HESS...17.1913S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013HESS...17.1913S"><span id="translatedtitle">Evaluation of numerical weather prediction model precipitation <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> for short-term streamflow <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> purpose</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Shrestha, D. L.; Robertson, D. E.; Wang, Q. J.; Pagano, T. C.; Hapuarachchi, H. A. P.</p> <p>2013-05-01</p> <p>The quality of precipitation <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> from four Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models is evaluated over the Ovens catchment in Southeast Australia. Precipitation <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are compared with observed precipitation at point and catchment scales and at different temporal resolutions. The four models evaluated are the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) including ACCESS-G with a 80 km resolution, ACCESS-R 37.5 km, ACCESS-A 12 km, and ACCESS-VT 5 km. The skill of the NWP precipitation <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> varies considerably between rain gauging stations. In general, high spatial resolution (ACCESS-A and ACCESS-VT) and regional (ACCESS-R) NWP models overestimate precipitation in dry, low elevation areas and underestimate in wet, high elevation areas. The global model (ACCESS-G) consistently underestimates the precipitation at all stations and the bias increases with station elevation. The skill varies with <span class="hlt">forecast</span> lead time and, in general, it decreases with the increasing lead time. When evaluated at finer spatial and temporal resolution (e.g. 5 km, hourly), the precipitation <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> appear to have very little skill. There is moderate skill at short lead times when the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are averaged up to daily and/or catchment scale. The precipitation <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> fail to produce a diurnal cycle shown in observed precipitation. Significant sampling uncertainty in the skill scores suggests that more data are required to get a reliable evaluation of the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>. The non-smooth decay of skill with <span class="hlt">forecast</span> lead time can be attributed to diurnal cycle in the observation and sampling uncertainty. Future work is planned to assess the benefits of using the NWP rainfall <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> for short-term streamflow <span class="hlt">forecasting</span>. Our findings here suggest that it is necessary to remove the systematic biases in rainfall <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>, particularly those from low resolution models, before the rainfall <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> can be used for streamflow <span class="hlt">forecasting</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/6854525','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/6854525"><span id="translatedtitle">Decision support for financial <span class="hlt">forecasting</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Jairam, B.N.; Morris, J.D.; Emrich, M.L.; Hardee, H.K.</p> <p>1988-10-01</p> <p>A primary mission of the Budget Management Division of the Air Force is fiscal analysis. This involves formulating, justifying, and tracking financial data during budget preparation and execution. An essential requirement of this process is the ready availability and easy manipulation of past and current budget data. This necessitates the decentralization of the data. A prototypical system, BAFS (Budget Analysis and <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> System), that provides such a capability is presented. In its current state, the system is designed to be a decision support tool. A brief report of the budget decisions and activities is presented. The system structure and its major components are discussed. An insight into the implementation strategies and the tool used is provided. The paper concludes with a discussion of future enhancements and the system's evolution into an expert system. 4 refs., 3 figs.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70035688','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70035688"><span id="translatedtitle">Real-time flood <span class="hlt">forecasting</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Lai, C.; Tsay, T.-K.; Chien, C.-H.; Wu, I.-L.</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>Researchers at the Hydroinformatic Research and Development Team (HIRDT) of the National Taiwan University undertook a project to create a real time flood <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> model, with an aim to predict the current in the Tamsui River Basin. The model was designed based on deterministic approach with mathematic modeling of complex phenomenon, and specific parameter values operated to produce a discrete result. The project also devised a rainfall-stage model that relates the rate of rainfall upland directly to the change of the state of river, and is further related to another typhoon-rainfall model. The geographic information system (GIS) data, based on precise contour model of the terrain, estimate the regions that were perilous to flooding. The HIRDT, in response to the project's progress, also devoted their application of a deterministic model to unsteady flow of thermodynamics to help predict river authorities issue timely warnings and take other emergency measures.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12.9176C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12.9176C"><span id="translatedtitle">Emulation for probabilistic weather <span class="hlt">forecasting</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cornford, Dan; Barillec, Remi</p> <p>2010-05-01</p> <p>Numerical weather prediction models are typically very expensive to run due to their complexity and resolution. Characterising the sensitivity of the model to its initial condition and/or to its parameters requires numerous runs of the model, which is impractical for all but the simplest models. To produce probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> requires knowledge of the distribution of the model outputs, given the distribution over the inputs, where the inputs include the initial conditions, boundary conditions and model parameters. Such uncertainty analysis for complex weather prediction models seems a long way off, given current computing power, with ensembles providing only a partial answer. One possible way forward that we develop in this work is the use of statistical emulators. Emulators provide an efficient statistical approximation to the model (or simulator) while quantifying the uncertainty introduced. In the emulator framework, a Gaussian process is fitted to the simulator response as a function of the simulator inputs using some training data. The emulator is essentially an interpolator of the simulator output and the response in unobserved areas is dictated by the choice of covariance structure and parameters in the Gaussian process. Suitable parameters are inferred from the data in a maximum likelihood, or Bayesian framework. Once trained, the emulator allows operations such as sensitivity analysis or uncertainty analysis to be performed at a much lower computational cost. The efficiency of emulators can be further improved by exploiting the redundancy in the simulator output through appropriate dimension reduction techniques. We demonstrate this using both Principal Component Analysis on the model output and a new reduced-rank emulator in which an optimal linear projection operator is estimated jointly with other parameters, in the context of simple low order models, such as the Lorenz 40D system. We present the application of emulators to probabilistic weather</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/911928','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/911928"><span id="translatedtitle">Construction Safety <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> for ITER</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>cadwallader, lee charles</p> <p>2006-11-01</p> <p>The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project is poised to begin its construction activity. This paper gives an estimate of construction safety as if the experiment was being built in the United States. This estimate of construction injuries and potential fatalities serves as a useful <span class="hlt">forecast</span> of what can be expected for construction of such a major facility in any country. These data should be considered by the ITER International Team as it plans for safety during the construction phase. Based on average U.S. construction rates, ITER may expect a lost workday case rate of < 4.0 and a fatality count of 0.5 to 0.9 persons per year.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19860061198&hterms=nino+forecasting&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3Dnino%2Bforecasting','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19860061198&hterms=nino+forecasting&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3Dnino%2Bforecasting"><span id="translatedtitle">Experimental <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> of El Nino</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Cane, M. A.; Zebiak, S. E.; Dolan, S. C.</p> <p>1986-01-01</p> <p>A deterministic numerical model of the coupled evolution of the tropical ocean and atmosphere was used to <span class="hlt">forecast</span> all El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events from 1970 to 1986. More particularly, the model, originally developed for studying large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropics, successfully predicted the characteristics of the spatial and temporal structure of ENSO observed in the study interval. The model indicated that rainfall moving eastward over the Pacific slackens the surface winds that would otherwise cool the eastern Pacific by drawing up cooler subsurface waters. The oceanic thermocline increases, a poleward flow of westerly flowing warn waters deplets the equatorial warm water reservoir, and sea surface temperatures decline. These ENSO conditions are statistically tractable with the model several months in advance, provided upper ocean layer thermal data are available.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/6908303','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/6908303"><span id="translatedtitle">Directory of Energy Information <span class="hlt">Administration</span> models, 1990</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Not Available</p> <p>1990-06-04</p> <p>This directory revises and updates the Directory of Energy Information <span class="hlt">Administration</span> Models, DOE/EIA-0293(89), Energy Information <span class="hlt">Administration</span> (EIA), US Department of Energy, May 1989. The major changes are the inclusion of the Building Energy End-Use Model (BEEM-PC), Residential Energy End-Use Model (REEM-PC), the Refinery Yield Model Spreadsheet System (RYMSS-PC), and the Capital Stock Model (CAPSTOCK-PC). Also, the following models have been inactivated: Energy Disaggregated Input-Output Model (EDIO), Household Model of Energy (HOME3-PC), Commercial Sector Energy Model (CSEM-PC), Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Supply Model (OCSM), and the Stock Module of the Intermediate Future <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> System (STOCK). This directory contains descriptions about each basic and auxiliary model, including the title, acronym, purpose, and type, followed by more detailed information on characteristics, uses, and requirements. For developing models, limited information is provided. Sources for additional information are identified. Included in this directory are 38 EIA models active as of March 1, 1990, as well as the PC-AEO <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> Model Overview and the three Subsystems for the Short-Term Integrated <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> System (STIFS) Model. Models that run on personal computers are identified by PC'' as part of the acronym.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23456373','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23456373"><span id="translatedtitle">Phantosmia as a meteorological <span class="hlt">forecaster</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Aiello, S R; Hirsch, A R</p> <p>2013-09-01</p> <p>In normosmics, olfactory ability has been found to vary with ambient humidity, barometric pressure, and season. While hallucinated sensations of phantom pain associated with changes in weather have been described, a linkage to chemosensory hallucinations has heretofore not been reported. A 64-year-old white male with Parkinson's disease presents with 5 years of phantosmia of a smoky burnt wood which changed to onion-gas and then to a noxious skunk-onion excrement odor. Absent upon waking it increases over the day and persists for hours. When severe, there appears a phantom taste with the same qualities as the odor. It is exacerbated by factors that manipulate intranasal pressure, such as coughing. When eating or sniffing, the actual flavors replace the phantosmia. Since onset, he noted the intensity and frequency of the phantosmia <span class="hlt">forecasted</span> the weather. Two to 3 h before a storm, the phantosmia intensifies from a level 0 to a 7-10, which persists through the entire thunderstorm. Twenty years prior, he reported the ability to <span class="hlt">forecast</span> the weather, based on pain in a torn meniscus, which vanished after surgical repair. Extensive olfactory testing demonstrates underlying hyposmia. Possible mechanisms for such chemosensory-meteorological linkage includes: air pressure induced synesthesia, disinhibition of spontaneous olfactory discharge, exacerbation of ectopic discharge, affect mediated somatic sensory amplification, and misattribution error with expectation and recall bias. This is the first reported case of weather-induced exacerbation of phantosmia. Further investigation of the connection between chemosensory complaints and ambient weather is warranted. PMID:23456373</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015TESS....111201L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015TESS....111201L"><span id="translatedtitle">Challenges in <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> SEP Events</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Luhmann, Janet; Mays, M. Leila; Odstrcil, Dusan; Bain, Hazel; Li, Yan; Leske, Richard; Cohen, Christina</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>A long-standing desire of space weather prediction providers has been the ability to <span class="hlt">forecast</span> SEP (Solar Energetic Particle) events as a part of their offerings. SEPs can have deleterious effects on the space environment and space hardware, that also impact human exploration missions. Developments of observationally driven, physics based models in the last solar cycle have made it possible to use solar magnetograms and coronagraph images to simulate, up to a month in advance for solar wind structure, and up to days in advance for interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) driven shocks, time series of upstream parameters similar in content to those obtained by L1 spacecraft. However, SEPs have been missing from these predictions. Because SEP event modeling requires different physical considerations it has typically been approached with cosmic ray transport concepts and treatments. However, many extra complications arise because of the moving, evolving nature of the ICME shock source of the largest events. In general, a realistic SEP event model for these so-called 'gradual' events requires an accurate description of the time-dependent 3D heliosphere as an underlying framework. We describe some applications of an approach to SEP event simulations that uses the widely-applied ENLIL heliospheric model to describe both underlying solar wind and ICME shock characteristics. Experimentation with this set-up illustrates the importance of knowing the shock connectivity to the observer, and of the need to include even non-observer-impacting CMEs in the heliospheric model. It also provides a possible path forward toward the goal of having routine SEP <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> together with the other heliospheric predictions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25306375','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25306375"><span id="translatedtitle">Application of High Resolution-Continuum Source Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (HR-CS <span class="hlt">FAAS</span>): determination of trace elements in tea and tisanes.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Paz-Rodríguez, Beatriz; Domínguez-González, María Raquel; Aboal-Somoza, Manuel; Bermejo-Barrera, Pilar</p> <p>2015-03-01</p> <p>A new application of HR-CS <span class="hlt">FAAS</span> (High Resolution-Continuum Source Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrometry) has been developed for the determination of several trace elements (Ca, Co, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Na and Zn) in infusions made from tea, rooibos and tea with seaweed samples. The proposed methods are fast, inexpensive and show good performances: the mean analytical recovery was approximately 100%. The mean limit of detection was 29.4 μg/l, and the mean limit of quantification was 98.0 μg/l (both limits refer to the brewed samples). Due to the matrix effect observed, the standard addition method had to be applied. Preliminary classification (based on metal contents) using chemometric techniques such as PCA (Principal Component Analysis) and CA (Cluster Analysis), was successful for infusions made from rooibos and tea with seaweed, but inconclusive for black and green teas. PMID:25306375</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19138082','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19138082"><span id="translatedtitle">Solvent microextraction-flame atomic absorption spectrometry (SME-<span class="hlt">FAAS</span>) for determination of ultratrace amounts of cadmium in meat and fish samples.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Goudarzi, Nasser</p> <p>2009-02-11</p> <p>A simple, low cost and highly sensitive method based on solvent microextraction (SME) for separation/preconcentration and flame atomic absorption spectrometry (<span class="hlt">FAAS</span>) was proposed for the determination of ultratrace amounts of cadmium in meat and fish samples. The analytical procedure involved the formation of a hydrophobic complex by mixing the analyte solution with an ammonium pyrrolidinedithiocarbamate (APDC) solution. In suitable conditions, the complex of cadmium-APDC entered the micro organic phase, and thus, separation of the analyte from the matrix was achieved. Under optimal chemical and instrumental conditions, a detection limit (3 sigma) of 0.8 ng L(-1) and an enrichment factor of 93 were achieved. The relative standard deviation for the method was found to be 2.2% for Cd. The interference effects of some anions and cations were also investigated. The developed method has been applied to the determination of trace Cd in meat and fish samples. PMID:19138082</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004AGUFM.S21C..08J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004AGUFM.S21C..08J"><span id="translatedtitle">Prospective Tests of Southern California Earthquake <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Jackson, D. D.; Schorlemmer, D.; Gerstenberger, M.; Kagan, Y. Y.; Helmstetter, A.; Wiemer, S.; Field, N.</p> <p>2004-12-01</p> <p>We are testing earthquake <span class="hlt">forecast</span> models prospectively using likelihood ratios. Several investigators have developed such models as part of the Southern California Earthquake Center's project called Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM). Various models are based on fault geometry and slip rates, seismicity, geodetic strain, and stress interactions. Here we describe the testing procedure and present preliminary results. <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span> are expressed as the yearly rate of earthquakes within pre-specified bins of longitude, latitude, magnitude, and focal mechanism parameters. We test models against each other in pairs, which requires that both <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> in a pair be defined over the same set of bins. For this reason we specify a standard "menu" of bins and ground rules to guide <span class="hlt">forecasters</span> in using common descriptions. One menu category includes five-year <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> of magnitude 5.0 and larger. Contributors will be requested to submit <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> in the form of a vector of yearly earthquake rates on a 0.1 degree grid at the beginning of the test. Focal mechanism <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>, when available, are also archived and used in the tests. Interim progress will be evaluated yearly, but final conclusions would be made on the basis of cumulative five-year performance. The second category includes <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> of earthquakes above magnitude 4.0 on a 0.1 degree grid, evaluated and renewed daily. Final evaluation would be based on cumulative performance over five years. Other types of <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> with different magnitude, space, and time sampling are welcome and will be tested against other models with shared characteristics. Tests are based on the log likelihood scores derived from the probability that future earthquakes would occur where they do if a given <span class="hlt">forecast</span> were true [Kagan and Jackson, J. Geophys. Res.,100, 3,943-3,959, 1995]. For each pair of <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>, we compute alpha, the probability that the first would be wrongly rejected in favor of the second, and beta, the probability</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2012AGUFM.A53F0201Y&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2012AGUFM.A53F0201Y&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">A study on the estimation and verification of the blended precipitation <span class="hlt">forecast</span> for hydrological use in Korea</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yang, H.; Jeong, J.; Nam, K.; Ko, H.; Choi, Y.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>Quantitative precipitation <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> of nowcasting based on the extrapolation of radar and numerical weather prediction models is the crucial information for severe weather such as floods, droughts, debris flows, and water quality, and to determine current and future availability of water resources. Meso-scale models well represent the cumulus convection process and the change of magnitude of precipitation, but need the spin-up time defined as the time needed to reach from the initial non-existent cloud to the actual state of cloud cumulus. The spin-up problem of meso-scale model yields the low skill score within the short range <span class="hlt">forecast</span> lead time. Nowcasting model including the advection process of the rainfall is one of the alternatives to avoid this problem. The purpose of this study is to produce the optimized quantitative precipitation <span class="hlt">forecast</span> by blending both the <span class="hlt">forecasted</span> precipitation of the nowcasting and numerical weather prediction (NWP) <span class="hlt">forecast</span> at catchment scale for hydrometeorological application. Korea Meteorological <span class="hlt">Administration</span> (KMA) have been operating nowcasting models, which are VSRF (Very Short Range <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> of precipitation) and MAPLE (McGill Algorithm for Precipitation Nowcasting by Lagrangian), and short term <span class="hlt">forecast</span> model, which are UMRG (Unified Model of Regional Grid) and KWRF (Korean WRF). The blended precipitation <span class="hlt">forecast</span> are estimated by using a weight scheme based on the long term average value of critical success index of each individual component of the model. The hydrological verification of the blended precipitation <span class="hlt">forecast</span> has been conducted to 117 mid-watersheds of Korea for summertime in 2011. The performance of the blended precipitation has shown to be better than that individual <span class="hlt">forecasted</span> precipitation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1995BAMS...76.2187L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1995BAMS...76.2187L"><span id="translatedtitle">Waves <span class="hlt">Forecasters</span> in World War II (with a Brief Survey of Other Women Meteorologists in World War II).</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lewis, J. M.</p> <p>1995-11-01</p> <p>Out of the nearly 6000 U.S. military officers who were trained to be weather <span class="hlt">forecasters</span> during World War II, there wore approximately 100 women. They were recruited into the Women Accepted for Volunteer Emergency Service (WAVES) by the U.S. Navy and underwent training with the military men in the so-called cadet program. Letters of reminiscence from six WAVES <span class="hlt">forecasters</span> are combined with official navy correspondence, archival information from universities, and newspaper articles of the period to reconstruct the recruitment, training, duty assignments, and postwar careers of these women.With limited information, an effort has also been made to document the training of civilian women in the cadet program, and to estimate the number of women who served as <span class="hlt">forecasters</span> in foreign countries during the war. The status of women in meteorology prior to the United States' entry into the war is examined as a backdrop to the study. Principal results of the study are as follows:1) The recruitment of WAVES <span class="hlt">forecasters</span> was in response to extreme shortages of weather officers at the Naval Air Stations (NAS) in early 1943 as the war escalated.2) Those recruited to be WAVES <span class="hlt">forecasters</span> had previous experience as math/science teachers and had a lower than average attrition rate in the demanding cadet program.3) The WAVES were assigned as NAS <span class="hlt">forecasters</span> stateside, and there is some evidence that they were differentially treated in comparison to the male naval <span class="hlt">forecasters</span>.4) In addition to the women <span class="hlt">forecasters</span> in the WAVES, approximately 50 civilian women were trained in the cadet program under the sponsorship of the Civilian Aeronautics <span class="hlt">Administration</span> and the U.S. Weather Bureau; England also recruited an estimated 50 women into weather <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> during the latter stages of WWII.5) Of the 200 women who were trained to be <span class="hlt">forecasters</span>, it is estimated that less than 10% remained in meteorology.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21807225','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21807225"><span id="translatedtitle">Development of an inexpensive and sensitive method for the determination of low quantity of arsenic species in water samples by CPE-<span class="hlt">FAAS</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ulusoy, Halil İbrahim; Akçay, Mehmet; Gürkan, Ramazan</p> <p>2011-09-15</p> <p>The simple and rapid preconcentration technique using cloud point extraction (CPE) was applied for the determination of As(V) and total inorganic arsenic (As(V) plus As(III)) in water samples by means of <span class="hlt">FAAS</span>. As(V) has formed an ion-pairing complex with Pyronine B in the presence of cetyl pyridinium chloride (CPC) at pH 8.0 and extracted into the non-ionic surfactant Triton X-114, after centrifugation the surfactant-rich phase was separated and diluted with 1.0 mol L(-1) HNO(3) in methanol. The proposed method is very versatile and economic because it exclusively used conventional <span class="hlt">FAAS</span>. After optimization of the CPE conditions, a preconcentration factor of 120, the detection and quantification limits of 1.67 and 5.06 μg L(-1) with a correlation coefficient of 0.9978 were obtained from the calibration curve constructed in the range of 5.0-2200 μg L(-1). The relative standard deviation, RSD as a measure of precision was less than 4.1% and the recoveries were in the range of 98.2-102.4%, 97.4-101.2% and 97.8-101.1% for As(V), As(III) and total As, respectively. The method was validated by the analysis of standard reference materials, TMDA-53.3 and NIST 1643e and applied to the determination of As(III) and As(V) in some real samples including natural drinking water and tap water samples with satisfactory results. The results obtained (34.70±1.08 μg L(-1) and 60.25±1.07 μg L(-1)) were in good agreement with the certified values (34.20±1.38 μg L(-1) and 60.45±1.78 μg L(-1)). PMID:21807225</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li class="active"><span>24</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_24 --> <div id="page_25" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li class="active"><span>25</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="481"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4267129','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4267129"><span id="translatedtitle">Testing the Value of Probability <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span> for Calibrated Combining</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Lahiri, Kajal; Peng, Huaming; Zhao, Yongchen</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>We combine the probability <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> of a real GDP decline from the U.S. Survey of Professional <span class="hlt">Forecasters</span>, after trimming the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> that do not have “value”, as measured by the Kuiper Skill Score and in the sense of Merton (1981). For this purpose, we use a simple test to evaluate the probability <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>. The proposed test does not require the probabilities to be converted to binary <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> before testing, and it accommodates serial correlation and skewness in the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>. We find that the number of <span class="hlt">forecasters</span> making valuable <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> decreases sharply as the horizon increases. The beta-transformed linear pool combination scheme, based on the valuable individual <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>, is shown to outperform the simple average for all horizons on a number of performance measures, including calibration and sharpness. The test helps to identify the good <span class="hlt">forecasters</span> ex ante, and therefore contributes to the accuracy of the combined <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>. PMID:25530646</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.T51B2026J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.T51B2026J"><span id="translatedtitle">Performance of aftershock <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>: problem and formulation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Jiang, C.; Wu, Z.; Li, L.</p> <p>2010-12-01</p> <p>WFSD project deals with the problems of earthquake physics, in which one of the important designed aims is the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> of the on-going aftershock activity of the Wenchuan earthquake, taking the advantage of the fast response to great earthquakes. Correlation between fluid measurements and aftershocks provided heuristic clues to the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> of aftershocks, invoking the discussion on the performance of such ‘precursory anomalies’, even if in a retrospective perspective. In statistical seismology, one of the critical issues is how to test the statistical significance of an earthquake <span class="hlt">forecast</span> scheme against real seismic activity. Due to the special characteristics of aftershock series and the feature of aftershock <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> that it deals with a limited spatial range and specific temporal duration, the test of the performance of aftershock <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> has to be different from the standard tests for main shock series. In this presentation we address and discuss the possible schemes for testing the performance of aftershock <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> - a seemingly simple but practically important issue in statistical seismology. As a simple and preliminary approach, we use an alternative form of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) test, as well as other similar tests, considering the properties of aftershock series by using Omori law, ETAS model, and/or CFS calculation. We also discussed the lessons and experiences of the Wenchuan aftershock <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>, exploring how to make full use of the present knowledge of the regularity of aftershocks to serve the earthquake rescue and relief endeavor as well as the post-earthquake reconstruction.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1986SPIE..566..102M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1986SPIE..566..102M"><span id="translatedtitle">Precision Fiber Optic Sensor Market <span class="hlt">Forecast</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Montgomery, Jeff D.; Glasco, Jon; Dixon, Frank W.</p> <p>1986-01-01</p> <p>The worldwide market for precision fiber optic sensors is <span class="hlt">forecasted</span>, 1984-1994. The <span class="hlt">forecast</span> is based upon o Analysis of fiber optic sensor and related component current technology, and a <span class="hlt">forecast</span> of technology advancement o Review and projection of demand for precision sensing, and the penetration which fiber optics will make into this market The analysis and projections are based mainly on interviews conducted worldwide with research teams, government agencies, systems contractors, medical and industrial laboratories, component suppliers and others. The worldwide market for precision (interferometric) fiber optic sensing systems is <span class="hlt">forecasted</span> to exceed $0.8 billion by 1994. The <span class="hlt">forecast</span> is segmented by geographical region (Europe, Japan and North America) and by function; o Gyroscope o Sonar o Gradiometer/Magnetometer o Other - Chemical Composition - Atmospheric Acoustic - Temperature - Position - Pressure Requirements for components are reviewed. These include special fiber, emitters and detectors, modulators, couplers, switches, integrated optical circuits and integrated optoelectronics. The advancement in component performance is <span class="hlt">forecasted</span>. The major driving forces creating fiber optic sensor markets are reviewed. These include fiber optic sensor technical and economic advantages, increasingly stringent operational requirements, and technology evolution. The leading fiber optic sensor and related component development programs are reviewed. Component sources are listed. Funding sources for sensor and component development are outlined, and trends <span class="hlt">forecasted</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUFM.H43B1227B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUFM.H43B1227B"><span id="translatedtitle">Toward Improving Streamflow <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span> Using SNODAS Products</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Barth, C.; Boyle, D. P.; Lamorey, G. W.; Bassett, S. D.</p> <p>2007-12-01</p> <p>As part of the Water 2025 initiative, researchers at the Desert Research Institute in collaboration with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation are developing and improving water decision support system (DSS) tools to make seasonal streamflow <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> for management and operations of water resources in the mountainous western United States. Streamflow <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> in these areas may have errors that are directly related to uncertainties resulting from the lack of direct high resolution snow water equivalent (SWE) measurements. The purpose of this study is to investigate the possibility of improving the accuracy of streamflow <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> through the use of Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) products, which are high-resolution daily estimates of snow cover and associated hydrologic variables such as SWE and snowmelt runoff that are available for the coterminous United States. To evaluate the benefit of incorporating the SNODAS product into streamflow <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>, a variety of Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESP) are generated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). A series of manual and automatic calibrations of PRMS to different combinations of measured (streamflow) and estimated (SNODAS SWE) hydrologic variables is performed for several watersheds at various scales of spatial resolution. This study, which is embedded in the constant effort to improve streamflow <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and hence water operations DSS, shows the potential of using a product such as SNODAS SWE estimates to decrease parameter uncertainty related to snow variables and enhance <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skills early in the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> season.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23826222','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23826222"><span id="translatedtitle">A Simulation Optimization Approach to Epidemic <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Nsoesie, Elaine O; Beckman, Richard J; Shashaani, Sara; Nagaraj, Kalyani S; Marathe, Madhav V</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Reliable <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> of influenza can aid in the control of both seasonal and pandemic outbreaks. We introduce a simulation optimization (SIMOP) approach for <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> the influenza epidemic curve. This study represents the final step of a project aimed at using a combination of simulation, classification, statistical and optimization techniques to <span class="hlt">forecast</span> the epidemic curve and infer underlying model parameters during an influenza outbreak. The SIMOP procedure combines an individual-based model and the Nelder-Mead simplex optimization method. The method is used to <span class="hlt">forecast</span> epidemics simulated over synthetic social networks representing Montgomery County in Virginia, Miami, Seattle and surrounding metropolitan regions. The results are presented for the first four weeks. Depending on the synthetic network, the peak time could be predicted within a 95% CI as early as seven weeks before the actual peak. The peak infected and total infected were also accurately <span class="hlt">forecasted</span> for Montgomery County in Virginia within the <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> period. <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> of the epidemic curve for both seasonal and pandemic influenza outbreaks is a complex problem, however this is a preliminary step and the results suggest that more can be achieved in this area. PMID:23826222</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.H21A1012O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.H21A1012O"><span id="translatedtitle">National Weather Service <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> Reference Evapotranspiration</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Osborne, H. D.; Palmer, C. K.; Krone-Davis, P.; Melton, F. S.; Hobbins, M.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>The National Weather Service (NWS), Weather <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> Offices (WFOs) are producing daily reference evapotranspiration (ETrc) <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> or FRET across the Western Region and in other selected locations since 2009, using the Penman - Monteith Reference Evapotranspiration equation for a short canopy (12 cm grasses), adopted by the Environmental Water Resources Institute of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE-EWRI, 2004). The sensitivity of these daily calculations to fluctuations in temperatures, humidity, winds, and sky cover allows <span class="hlt">forecasters</span> with knowledge of local terrain and weather patterns to better <span class="hlt">forecast</span> in the ETrc inputs. The daily FRET product then evolved into a suite of products, including a weekly ETrc <span class="hlt">forecast</span> for better water planning and a tabular point <span class="hlt">forecast</span> for easy ingest into local water management-models. The ETrc <span class="hlt">forecast</span> product suite allows water managers, the agricultural community, and the public to make more informed water-use decisions. These products permit operational planning, especially with the impending drought across much of the West. For example, the California Department of Water Resources not only ingests the FRET into their soil moisture models, but uses the FRET calculations when determining the reservoir releases in the Sacramento and American Rivers. We will also focus on the expansion of FRET verification, which compares the daily FRET to the observations of ETo from the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) across California's Central Valley for the 2012 water year.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.3120P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.3120P"><span id="translatedtitle">Urban Air Quality <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> in Canada</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Pavlovic, Radenko; Menard, Sylvain; Cousineau, Sophie; Stroud, Craig; Moran, Michael</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Environment and Climate Change Canada has been providing air quality (AQ) <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> for major Canadian urban centers since 2001. Over this period, the Canadian AQ <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> Program has expanded and evolved. It currently uses the Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) modelling framework. At the heart of the RAQDPS is the GEM-MACH model, an on-line coupled meteorology‒chemistry model configured for a North American domain with 10 km horizontal grid spacing and 80 vertical levels. A statistical post-processing model (UMOS-AQ) is then applied to the RAQDPS hourly <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> for locations with AQ monitors to reduce point <span class="hlt">forecast</span> bias and error. These outputs provide the primary guidance from which operational meteorologists disseminate Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> to the public for major urban centres across Canada. During the 2015 summer Pan Am and Parapan Am Games, which were held in Ontario, Canada, an experimental version of the RAQDPS at 2.5 km horizontal grid spacing was run for a domain over the greater Toronto area. Currently, there is ongoing research to develop and assess AQ systems run at 1 km resolution. This presentation will show analyses of operational AQ <span class="hlt">forecast</span> performance for several pollutants over the last few years in major Canadian urban centres such as Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Ottawa, and Calgary. Trends in observed pollution along with short- and long-term development plans for urban AQ <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> will also be presented.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.9161M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.9161M"><span id="translatedtitle">Tropical ocean initialisation strategies for seasonal <span class="hlt">forecasting</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mulholland, David; Haines, Keith</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Operational seasonal ENSO <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> show substantial skill in tropical regions, but are sensitive to the initialisation procedure used in the ocean. Due to errors in wind stress forcing and in modelling the vertical transfer of momentum, a bias correction method is often used during ocean data assimilation in order to assimilate hydrographic data, e.g. from the TOGA/TAO array. While this improves the ocean state, particularly the circulation, during the analysis, it leads to an inconsistency at the beginning of a coupled <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, since the bias correction term is generally not retained during the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> itself. We present results from a number of ensemble simulations carried out with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span> (ECMWF) coupled <span class="hlt">forecast</span> system, comparing different initialisation strategies for the equatorial ocean. Rapid adjustments in the ocean at the beginning of the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> are found to induce additional variability in the thermocline. We then show that this spurious variability can be substantially reduced by persisting or more slowly adjusting the bias correction term during the first month, and that this leads to significant improvements in ENSO SST <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill, at lead times of 3-7 months. The results highlight the importance of ocean initialisation in maximising the skill of ENSO predictions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010E%26ES...11a2009K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010E%26ES...11a2009K"><span id="translatedtitle">Improving weather <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> for wind energy applications</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kay, Merlinde; MacGill, Iain</p> <p>2010-08-01</p> <p>Weather <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> play an important role in the energy industry particularly because of the impact of temperature on electrical demand. Power system operation requires that this variable and somewhat unpredictable demand be precisely met at all times and locations from available generation. As wind generation makes up a growing component of electricity supply around the world, it has become increasingly important to be able to provide useful <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> for this highly variable and uncertain energy resource. Of particular interest are <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> of weather events that rapidly change wind energy production from one or more wind farms. In this paper we describe work underway to improve the wind <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> currently available from standard Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) through a bias correction methodology. Our study has used the Australian Bureau of Meteorology MesoLAPS 5 km limited domain model over the Victoria/Tasmania region, providing <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> for the Woolnorth wind farm, situated in Tasmania, Australia. The accuracy of these <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> has been investigated, concentrating on the key wind speed ranges 5 - 15 ms-1 and around 25 ms-1. A bias correction methodology was applied to the NWP hourly <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> to help account for systematic issues such as the NWP grid point not being at the exact location of the wind farm. An additional correction was applied for timing issues by using meteorological data from the wind farm. Results to date show a reduction in spread of <span class="hlt">forecast</span> error for hour ahead <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> by as much as half using this double correction methodology - a combination of both bias correction and timing correction.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016EGUGA..18..991A&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016EGUGA..18..991A&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Seasonal hydrological ensemble <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> over Europe</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Arnal, Louise; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Stephens, Elisabeth; Cloke, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>This study investigates the limits of predictability in dynamical seasonal discharge <span class="hlt">forecasting</span>, in both space and time, over Europe. Seasonal <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> have an important socioeconomic value. Applications are numerous and cover hydropower management, spring flood prediction, low flow prediction for navigation and agricultural water demands. Additionally, the constant increase in NWP skill for longer lead times and the predicted increase in the intensity and frequency of hydro-meteorological extremes, have amplified the incentive to promote and further improve hydrological <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. In this study, seasonal hydrological <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> (SEA), driven by the ECMWF's System 4 in hindcast mode, were analysed against an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) benchmark. The ESP was forced with an ensemble of resampled historical meteorological observations and started with perfect initial conditions. Both <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> were produced by the LISFLOOD model, run on the pan-European scale with a spatial resolution of 5 by 5 km. The <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> were issued monthly on a daily time step, from 1990 until the current time, up to a lead time of 7 months. The seasonal discharge <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> were analysed against the ESP on a catchment scale in terms of their accuracy, skill and sharpness, using a diverse set of verification metrics (e.g. KGE, CRPSS and ROC). Additionally, a reverse-ESP was constructed by forcing the LISFLOOD model with a single perfect meteorological set of observations and initiated from an ensemble of resampled historical initial conditions. The comparison of the ESP with the reverse-ESP approach enabled the identification of the respective contribution of meteorological forcings and hydrologic initial conditions errors to seasonal discharge <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> uncertainties in Europe. These results could help pinpoint target elements of the <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> chain which, after being improved, could lead to substantial increase in discharge predictability</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1994smog.symp..311S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1994smog.symp..311S"><span id="translatedtitle">Accuracy analysis of TDRSS demand <span class="hlt">forecasts</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Stern, Daniel C.; Levine, Allen J.; Pitt, Karl J.</p> <p>1994-11-01</p> <p>This paper reviews Space Network (SN) demand <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> experience over the past 16 years and describes methods used in the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>. The paper focuses on the Single Access (SA) service, the most sought-after resource in the Space Network. Of the ten years of actual demand data available, only the last five years (1989 to 1993) were considered predictive due to the extensive impact of the Challenger accident of 1986. NASA's Space Network provides tracking and communications services to user spacecraft such as the Shuttle and the Hubble Space Telescope. <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> the customer requirements is essential to planning network resources and to establishing service commitments to future customers. The lead time to procure Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRS's) requires demand <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> ten years in the future a planning horizon beyond the funding commitments for missions to be supported. The long range <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are shown to have had a bias toward underestimation in the 1991 -1992 period. The trend of underestimation can be expected to be replaced by overestimation for a number of years starting with 1998. At that time demand from new missions slated for launch will be larger than the demand from ongoing missions, making the potential for delay the dominant factor. If the new missions appear as scheduled, the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are likely to be moderately underestimated. The SN commitment to meet the negotiated customer's requirements calls for conservatism in the <span class="hlt">forecasting</span>. Modification of the <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> procedure to account for a delay bias is, therefore, not advised. Fine tuning the mission model to more accurately reflect the current actual demand is recommended as it may marginally improve the first year <span class="hlt">forecasting</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.H31J..01F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.H31J..01F"><span id="translatedtitle">Using <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> Information in Reservoir Operation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Faber, B.</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>Reservoir operation is a series of decisions made over time. We choose whether to release water for various downstream purposes, or store it for later use. We choose whether to detain high flows to protect downstream areas, or pass that flow to retain space to store imminent higher flows. These decisions are driven by current and future inflows to the reservoir, and yet those inflows are uncertain and extremely variable. Conceptually, more information provides opportunity for better decisions, and so information about future inflows can improve reservoir operations. However, uncertain information must be used carefully, with awareness of the uncertainty and the likely consequence of "wrong" decisions (i.e., those with consequences worse than decisions that might otherwise have been made.) The historical streamflow record offers one source of information on the range and timing of streamflows. Streamflow <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> provides additional valuable information on coming reservoir inflows, both at short and longer time scales. For example, 5-day flow <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> based on <span class="hlt">forecasted</span> precipitation can inform rain-flood operations, while seasonal snowmelt <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> can aid snowmelt-flood operation, reservoir refill, and seasonal allocation of water supply. <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> information can aid our decision-making greatly, but too much reliance on an incorrect <span class="hlt">forecast</span> can make operation worse. Informed use of <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> requires an understanding of the expected range of the actual streamflow (the error distribution). <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> products must therefore be provided with a description of skill and error distribution understood by the producers and users of that information. Using <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> wisely, with an understanding of their uncertainty, is an important aspect of the operation of our nation's Federal reservoirs.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19950010799','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19950010799"><span id="translatedtitle">Accuracy analysis of TDRSS demand <span class="hlt">forecasts</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Stern, Daniel C.; Levine, Allen J.; Pitt, Karl J.</p> <p>1994-01-01</p> <p>This paper reviews Space Network (SN) demand <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> experience over the past 16 years and describes methods used in the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>. The paper focuses on the Single Access (SA) service, the most sought-after resource in the Space Network. Of the ten years of actual demand data available, only the last five years (1989 to 1993) were considered predictive due to the extensive impact of the Challenger accident of 1986. NASA's Space Network provides tracking and communications services to user spacecraft such as the Shuttle and the Hubble Space Telescope. <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> the customer requirements is essential to planning network resources and to establishing service commitments to future customers. The lead time to procure Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRS's) requires demand <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> ten years in the future a planning horizon beyond the funding commitments for missions to be supported. The long range <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are shown to have had a bias toward underestimation in the 1991 -1992 period. The trend of underestimation can be expected to be replaced by overestimation for a number of years starting with 1998. At that time demand from new missions slated for launch will be larger than the demand from ongoing missions, making the potential for delay the dominant factor. If the new missions appear as scheduled, the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are likely to be moderately underestimated. The SN commitment to meet the negotiated customer's requirements calls for conservatism in the <span class="hlt">forecasting</span>. Modification of the <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> procedure to account for a delay bias is, therefore, not advised. Fine tuning the mission model to more accurately reflect the current actual demand is recommended as it may marginally improve the first year <span class="hlt">forecasting</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AAS...21544204M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AAS...21544204M"><span id="translatedtitle">Accurate Weather <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> for Radio Astronomy</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Maddalena, Ronald J.</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>The NRAO Green Bank Telescope routinely observes at wavelengths from 3 mm to 1 m. As with all mm-wave telescopes, observing conditions depend upon the variable atmospheric water content. The site provides over 100 days/yr when opacities are low enough for good observing at 3 mm, but winds on the open-air structure reduce the time suitable for 3-mm observing where pointing is critical. Thus, to maximum productivity the observing wavelength needs to match weather conditions. For 6 years the telescope has used a dynamic scheduling system (recently upgraded; www.gb.nrao.edu/DSS) that requires accurate multi-day <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> for winds and opacities. Since opacity <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are not provided by the National Weather Services (NWS), I have developed an automated system that takes available <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>, derives <span class="hlt">forecasted</span> opacities, and deploys the results on the web in user-friendly graphical overviews (www.gb.nrao.edu/ rmaddale/Weather). The system relies on the "North American Mesoscale" models, which are updated by the NWS every 6 hrs, have a 12 km horizontal resolution, 1 hr temporal resolution, run to 84 hrs, and have 60 vertical layers that extend to 20 km. Each <span class="hlt">forecast</span> consists of a time series of ground conditions, cloud coverage, etc, and, most importantly, temperature, pressure, humidity as a function of height. I use the Liebe's MWP model (Radio Science, 20, 1069, 1985) to determine the absorption in each layer for each hour for 30 observing wavelengths. Radiative transfer provides, for each hour and wavelength, the total opacity and the radio brightness of the atmosphere, which contributes substantially at some wavelengths to Tsys and the observational noise. Comparisons of measured and <span class="hlt">forecasted</span> Tsys at 22.2 and 44 GHz imply that the <span class="hlt">forecasted</span> opacities are good to about 0.01 Nepers, which is sufficient for <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> and accurate calibration. Reliability is high out to 2 days and degrades slowly for longer-range <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011AGUFM.H53G1497C&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011AGUFM.H53G1497C&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Seasonal streamflow <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> with the global hydrological <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> system FEWS-World</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Candogan Yossef, N.; Van Beek, L. P.; Winsemius, H.; Bierkens, M. F.</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>The year-to-year variability of river discharge brings about risks and opportunities in water resources management. Reliable hydrological <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and effective communication allow several sectors to make more informed management decisions. In many developing regions of the world, there are no efficient hydrological <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> systems. For these regions, a global <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> system which indicates increased probabilities of streamflow excesses or shortages over long lead-times can be of great value. FEWS-World is developed for this purpose. The system incorporates the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB and delivers streamflow <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> on a global scale. This study investigates the skill and value of FEWS-World. Skill is defined as the ability of the system to <span class="hlt">forecast</span> discharge extremes; and value is its usefulness for possible users and ultimately for affected populations. Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> mode. The eventual goal is to transfer FEWS-World to operational <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> mode, where the system will use operational seasonal <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span> (ECMWF). The results will be disseminated on the internet to provide valuable information for users in data and model-poor regions of the world. The preliminary skill assessment of PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing flow extremes is carried out for a selection of 20 large rivers of the world. The model is run for a historical period, with a meteorological forcing data set based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, and the ERA-40 reanalysis of ECMWF. Model skill in reproducing monthly anomalies as well as floods and droughts is assessed by applying verification measures developed for deterministic meteorological <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>. The results of this preliminary analysis shows that even where the simulated hydrographs are biased, higher skills can be attained in reproducing monthly</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/10135022','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/10135022"><span id="translatedtitle">1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use <span class="hlt">Forecast</span>, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>United States. Bonneville Power Administration.</p> <p>1994-02-01</p> <p>This publication documents the load <span class="hlt">forecast</span> scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, conservation in the load <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, commercial sector <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, industrial sector <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, non-DSI industrial <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, direct service industry <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, and irrigation <span class="hlt">forecast</span>. Four appendices are included: long-term <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>, LTOUT <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, rates and fuel price <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>, and <span class="hlt">forecast</span> ranges-calculations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140002701','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140002701"><span id="translatedtitle">How MAG4 Improves Space Weather <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Falconer, David; Khazanov, Igor; Barghouty, Nasser</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Dangerous space weather is driven by solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs). <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> flares and CMEs is the first step to <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> either dangerous space weather or All Clear. MAG4 (Magnetogram <span class="hlt">Forecast</span>), developed originally for NASA/SRAG (Space Radiation Analysis Group), is an automated program that analyzes magnetograms from the HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) instrument on NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory), and automatically converts the rate (or probability) of major flares (M- and X-class), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particle Events.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/10177378','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/10177378"><span id="translatedtitle">1993 Solid Waste Reference <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> Summary</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L.; Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K.</p> <p>1993-08-01</p> <p>This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> Summary, (WHC 1992) <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.H41A1148C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.H41A1148C"><span id="translatedtitle">Seasonal Runoff <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span> Based on the Climate <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> System Version 2</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chen, L.; Mo, K. C.; Shukla, S.; Lettenmaier, D. P.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>Seasonal runoff <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are needed for many hydroclimatological applications, such as drought outlook, agricultural planning, seasonal hydrologic prediction, and multi-purpose reservoir management. Recently, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has transitioned to their second generation of the Climate <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> System (CFSv2) in operation. CFSv2 is a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land model with advanced physics, increased resolution, refined initialization, and improved land surface model, and provides <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> up to nine months in advance. Information on the accuracy and skill of the CFSv2 <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> is sought for the daily operation of many applications. In this study, we conduct an assessment of the prediction skill of seasonal runoff <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> from CFSv2 using its retrospective <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> from 1982 to 2009. <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> skill of spatially aggregated cumulative runoff (CR) from direct CFSv2 <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and those obtained from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model driven by daily precipitation, temperature, and wind <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> from CFSv2 (i.e., hydroclimate <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>) are compared with <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> based on the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) technique. All <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are verified against historical VIC simulations with input forcing of precipitation and temperature derived from a set of 2131 high-quality index stations selected from the National Climatic Data Center's (NCDC's) Cooperative Observer stations across the contiguous United States. The monthly CR is spatially aggregated to 48 sub-regions created by merging the 221 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hydrologic sub-regions in order to evaluate regional characteristics. Preliminary results suggest that <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill of CR is seasonally and regionally dependent. Direct runoff <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> from CFSv2 have the lowest skill on average, indicating limited use for hydrological drought prediction. Month-1 CR prediction from hydroclimate <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> is superior than that from the other two <span class="hlt">forecast</span></p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120016763','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120016763"><span id="translatedtitle">Hydrocarbon Rocket Technology Impact <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Stuber, Eric; Prasadh, Nishant; Edwards, Stephen; Mavris, Dimitri N.</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Ever since the Apollo program ended, the development of launch propulsion systems in the US has fallen drastically, with only two new booster engine developments, the SSME and the RS-68, occurring in the past few decades.1 In recent years, however, there has been an increased interest in pursuing more effective launch propulsion technologies in the U.S., exemplified by the NASA Office of the Chief Technologist s inclusion of Launch Propulsion Systems as the first technological area in the Space Technology Roadmaps2. One area of particular interest to both government agencies and commercial entities has been the development of hydrocarbon engines; NASA and the Air Force Research Lab3 have expressed interest in the use of hydrocarbon fuels for their respective SLS Booster and Reusable Booster System concepts, and two major commercially-developed launch vehicles SpaceX s Falcon 9 and Orbital Sciences Antares feature engines that use RP-1 kerosene fuel. Compared to engines powered by liquid hydrogen, hydrocarbon-fueled engines have a greater propellant density (usually resulting in a lighter overall engine), produce greater propulsive force, possess easier fuel handling and loading, and for reusable vehicle concepts can provide a shorter turnaround time between launches. These benefits suggest that a hydrocarbon-fueled launch vehicle would allow for a cheap and frequent means of access to space.1 However, the time and money required for the development of a new engine still presents a major challenge. Long and costly design, development, testing and evaluation (DDT&E) programs underscore the importance of identifying critical technologies and prioritizing investment efforts. Trade studies must be performed on engine concepts examining the affordability, operability, and reliability of each concept, and quantifying the impacts of proposed technologies. These studies can be performed through use of the Technology Impact <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> (TIF) method. The Technology Impact</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li class="active"><span>25</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_25 --> <center> <div class="footer-extlink text-muted"><small>Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. 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