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Sample records for administration faa forecasts

  1. 14 CFR 193.15 - What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part? 193.15 Section 193.15 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION... SUBMITTED INFORMATION § 193.15 What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under...

  2. 14 CFR 193.15 - What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part? 193.15 Section 193.15 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION... SUBMITTED INFORMATION § 193.15 What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under...

  3. 14 CFR 193.15 - What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part? 193.15 Section 193.15 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION... SUBMITTED INFORMATION § 193.15 What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under...

  4. 14 CFR 193.15 - What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part? 193.15 Section 193.15 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION... SUBMITTED INFORMATION § 193.15 What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under...

  5. 14 CFR 193.15 - What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part? 193.15 Section 193.15 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION... SUBMITTED INFORMATION § 193.15 What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under...

  6. 41 CFR 102-75.405 - What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and a copy of... responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and...

  7. 41 CFR 102-75.405 - What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and a copy of... responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and...

  8. 41 CFR 102-75.405 - What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and a copy of... responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and...

  9. 41 CFR 102-75.405 - What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and a copy of... responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and...

  10. 41 CFR 102-75.405 - What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and a copy of the Report of Excess Real Property (Standard Form 118)) given to eligible public agencies that...

  11. 41 CFR 102-37.535 - What information must FAA provide to GSA on its administration of the public airport donation...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... FAA provide to GSA on its administration of the public airport donation program? 102-37.535 Section... (Continued) FEDERAL MANAGEMENT REGULATION PERSONAL PROPERTY 37-DONATION OF SURPLUS PERSONAL PROPERTY Donations to Public Airports § 102-37.535 What information must FAA provide to GSA on its administration...

  12. 41 CFR 102-37.535 - What information must FAA provide to GSA on its administration of the public airport donation...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What information must FAA provide to GSA on its administration of the public airport donation program? 102-37.535 Section... Donations to Public Airports § 102-37.535 What information must FAA provide to GSA on its administration...

  13. FAA fluorescent penetrant activities

    SciTech Connect

    Moore, D.G.; Larson, B.F.

    1997-11-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration`s Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) and the Center for Aviation Systems Reliability (CASR) are currently working to develop a liquid penetrant inspection (LPI) system evaluation capability that will support the needs of the penetrant manufacturers, commercial airline industry and the FAA. The main focus of this facility is to support the evaluation of penetrant inspection materials, penetrant systems and to apply resources to support industry needs. This paper discusses efforts to create such a facility and an initial project to produce fatigue crack specimens for evaluation of Type 1 penetrant sensitivities.

  14. FAA Perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bond, Tom

    2009-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation describes the Federal Aviation Administration's perspective on improvements on aircraft icing. The most important areas that are discussed include: 1) Improvements in SLD engineering tools to meet concerns about means of compliance (MOC); and 2) 3-D iced aerodynamics.

  15. Forecast: Stormy Weather Ahead in Educational Administration.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Achilles, Charles M.

    1984-01-01

    Research suggests that today's teachers are of declining academic ability and that leadership qualities are discouraged in the system for promoting educational administrators. A systematic response to this crisis in leadership can be developed with the cooperation of universities and colleges and with thoroughly revised personnel policies for…

  16. The systems approach to airport security: The FAA (Federal Aviation Administration)/BWI (Baltimore-Washington International) Airport demonstration project

    SciTech Connect

    Caskey, D.L.; Olascoaga, M.T.

    1990-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has been involved in designing, installing and evaluating security systems for various applications during the past 15 years. A systems approach to security that evolved from this experience was applied to aviation security for the Federal Aviation Administration. A general systems study of aviation security in the United States was concluded in 1987. One result of the study was a recommendation that an enhanced security system concept designed to meet specified objectives be demonstrated at an operational airport. Baltimore-Washington International Airport was selected as the site for the demonstration project which began in 1988 and will be completed in 1992. This article introduced the systems approach to airport security and discussed its application at Baltimore-Washington International Airport. Examples of design features that could be included in an enhanced security concept also were presented, including details of the proposed Ramps Area Intrusion Detection System (RAIDS).

  17. FAA Smoke Transport Code

    SciTech Connect

    Domino, Stefan; Luketa-Hanlin, Anay; Gallegos, Carlos

    2006-10-27

    FAA Smoke Transport Code, a physics-based Computational Fluid Dynamics tool, which couples heat, mass, and momentum transfer, has been developed to provide information on smoke transport in cargo compartments with various geometries and flight conditions. The software package contains a graphical user interface for specification of geometry and boundary conditions, analysis module for solving the governing equations, and a post-processing tool. The current code was produced by making substantial improvements and additions to a code obtained from a university. The original code was able to compute steady, uniform, isothermal turbulent pressurization. In addition, a preprocessor and postprocessor were added to arrive at the current software package.

  18. An Instructional Systems Approach or FAA Student Centered Training.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Federal Aviation Administration (DOT), Washington, DC.

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Academy has been using a systems approach as part of its training program since 1969. This booklet describes the general characteristics of an instructional system and explains the steps the FAA goes through in implementing the approach. These steps are: 1) recognize a need for training, 2) specify the…

  19. 14 CFR 49.11 - FAA Aircraft Registry.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false FAA Aircraft Registry. 49.11 Section 49.11 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT RECORDING OF AIRCRAFT TITLES AND SECURITY DOCUMENTS General § 49.11 FAA Aircraft Registry. To be eligible for...

  20. 14 CFR 49.11 - FAA Aircraft Registry.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false FAA Aircraft Registry. 49.11 Section 49.11 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT RECORDING OF AIRCRAFT TITLES AND SECURITY DOCUMENTS General § 49.11 FAA Aircraft Registry. To be eligible for...

  1. 14 CFR 49.11 - FAA Aircraft Registry.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false FAA Aircraft Registry. 49.11 Section 49.11 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT RECORDING OF AIRCRAFT TITLES AND SECURITY DOCUMENTS General § 49.11 FAA Aircraft Registry. To be eligible for...

  2. 14 CFR 49.11 - FAA Aircraft Registry.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false FAA Aircraft Registry. 49.11 Section 49.11 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT RECORDING OF AIRCRAFT TITLES AND SECURITY DOCUMENTS General § 49.11 FAA Aircraft Registry. To be eligible for...

  3. 14 CFR 47.19 - FAA Aircraft Registry.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false FAA Aircraft Registry. 47.19 Section 47.19 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRCRAFT REGISTRATION General § 47.19 FAA Aircraft Registry. Each application, request, notification, or...

  4. 14 CFR 49.11 - FAA Aircraft Registry.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false FAA Aircraft Registry. 49.11 Section 49.11 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT RECORDING OF AIRCRAFT TITLES AND SECURITY DOCUMENTS General § 49.11 FAA Aircraft Registry. To be eligible for...

  5. FAA Smoke Transport Code

    2006-10-27

    FAA Smoke Transport Code, a physics-based Computational Fluid Dynamics tool, which couples heat, mass, and momentum transfer, has been developed to provide information on smoke transport in cargo compartments with various geometries and flight conditions. The software package contains a graphical user interface for specification of geometry and boundary conditions, analysis module for solving the governing equations, and a post-processing tool. The current code was produced by making substantial improvements and additions to a codemore » obtained from a university. The original code was able to compute steady, uniform, isothermal turbulent pressurization. In addition, a preprocessor and postprocessor were added to arrive at the current software package.« less

  6. 14 CFR 39.5 - When does FAA issue airworthiness directives?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false When does FAA issue airworthiness directives? 39.5 Section 39.5 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS DIRECTIVES § 39.5 When does FAA issue airworthiness directives? FAA...

  7. Forecasting the cytokine storm following systemic interleukin (IL)-2 administration

    PubMed Central

    Panelli, Monica C; White, Richard; Foster, Mareva; Martin, Brian; Wang, Ena; Smith, Kina; Marincola, Francesco M

    2004-01-01

    Extensive clinical experience has shown that systemic interleukin (IL)-2 administration can induce complete or partial regression of renal cell cancer (RCC) metastases in 15 to 20 % of patients. Since IL-2 has no direct anti-cancer effects, it is believed that cancer regression is mediated either by a direct modulation of immune cell effector functions or through the mediation of soluble factors released as a result of IL-2 administration. We previously observed that transcriptional and protein changes induced by systemic IL-2 administration affect predominantly mononuclear phagocytes with little effect, particularly within the tumor microenvironment, on T cell activation, localization and proliferation. It further appeared that mononuclear phagocyte activation could be best explained by the indirect mediation of a secondary release of cytokines by IL-2 responsive cells either in the circulation or in peripheral tissues. To better characterize the cytokine outburst that follows systemic IL-2 administration we followed the serum levels of 68 soluble factors in ten patients with RCC undergoing high dose (720,000 IU/kg intravenously every 8 hours) IL-2 therapy. Serum was collected before therapy, 3 hours after the 1st and 4th dose and assayed on a multiplexed protein array platform. This study demonstrated that 1) the serum concentration of more than half the soluble factors studied changed significantly during therapy; 2) changes became more dramatic with increasing doses; 3) subclasses of soluble factors displayed different kinetics and 4) cytokine patterns varied quantitatively among patients. This study shows that the cytokine storm that follows systemic IL-2 administration is complex and far-reaching inclusive of soluble factors with disparate, partly redundant and partly contrasting effects on immune function. Therefore comparing in parallel large number of soluble factors, it sets a comprehensive foundation for further elucidation of "cytokine storm" in larger

  8. NASA-FAA-NOAA Partnering Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colantonio, Ron

    2003-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation provides an overview of NASA-FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) collaboration efforts particularly in the area of aviation and aircraft safety. Five technology areas are being jointly by these agencies: (1) aviation weather information; (2) weather products; (3) automet technologies; (4) forward looking weather sensors and (5) turbulence controls and mitigation systems. Memorandum of Agreements (MOU) between these agencies are reviewed. A general review of the pros and pitfalls of inter-agency collaborations is also presented.

  9. The FAA aging airplane program plan for transport aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curtis, Dayton; Lewis, Jess

    1992-01-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aging Airplane Program is focused on five program areas: maintenance, transport airplanes, commuter airplanes, airplane engines, and research. These programs are complementary and concurrent, and have been in effect since 1988. The programs address the aging airplane challenge through different methods, including policies, procedures, and hardware development. Each program is carefully monitored and its progress tracked to ensure that the needs of the FAA, the industry, and the flying public are being met.

  10. FAA Film Catalog.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Federal Aviation Administration (DOT), Washington, DC.

    Some 75 films from the U.S. Department of Transportation's Federal Aviation Administration are listed in this catalog. Topics dealt with include aerodynamics, airports, aviation history and careers, flying clubs, navigation and weather. Most of the films are 16mm sound and color productions. Filmstrips requiring a 35mm projector and phonograph or…

  11. Towards FAA Certification of UAVs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, Stacy

    2003-01-01

    As of June 30, 2003, all Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), no matter how small, must adhere to the same FAA regulations as human-piloted aircraft. These regulations include certification for flying in controlled airspace and certification of flight software based on RTCA DO-178B. This paper provides an overview of the steps necessary to obtain certification, as well as a discussion about the challenges UAV's face when trying to meet these requirements. It is divided into two parts: 1) Certifications for Flying in Controlled Airspace; 2) Certification of Flight Software per RTCA DO-178B.

  12. 78 FR 63276 - Interim Policy, FAA Review of Solar Energy System Projects on Federally Obligated Airports

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-10-23

    ... Federal Aviation Administration Interim Policy, FAA Review of Solar Energy System Projects on Federally... federally obligated airports to construct solar energy systems on airport property. FAA is adopting an... for measuring ocular impact of proposed solar energy systems which are effective upon publication....

  13. 14 CFR Appendix A to Part 415 - FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form A Appendix A to Part 415 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH LICENSE Pt. 415, App. A Appendix A to Part 415—FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification...

  14. 14 CFR Appendix A to Part 415 - FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form A Appendix A to Part 415 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH LICENSE Pt. 415, App. A Appendix A to Part 415—FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification...

  15. 14 CFR Appendix A to Part 415 - FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form A Appendix A to Part 415 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH LICENSE Pt. 415, App. A Appendix A to Part 415—FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification...

  16. 14 CFR Appendix A to Part 415 - FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form A Appendix A to Part 415 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH LICENSE Pt. 415, App. A Appendix A to Part 415—FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification...

  17. NDE research efforts at the FAA Center for Aviation Systems Reliability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thompson, Donald O.; Brasche, Lisa J. H.

    1992-01-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration-Center for Aviation Systems Reliability (FAA-CASR), a part of the Institute for Physical Research and Technology at Iowa State University, began operation in the Fall of 1990 with funding from the FAA. The mission of the FAA-CASR is to develop quantitative nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods for aircraft structures and materials including prototype instrumentation, software, techniques, and procedures and to develop and maintain comprehensive education and training programs in aviation specific inspection procedures and practices. To accomplish this mission, FAA-CASR brings together resources from universities, government, and industry to develop a comprehensive approach to problems specific to the aviation industry. The problem areas are targeted by the FAA, aviation manufacturers, the airline industry and other members of the aviation business community. This consortium approach ensures that the focus of the efforts is on relevant problems and also facilitates effective transfer of the results to industry.

  18. 75 FR 6433 - Federal Aviation Administration

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-02-09

    ... Federal Aviation Administration Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment and Public...: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental... Chicago, Illinois. SUMMARY: The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) proposes to fund, construct,...

  19. FAA bulk technology overview for explosives detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Novakoff, Alan K.

    1993-04-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is the leading federal agency responsible for encouraging and fostering the development of a safe, secure, and efficient national airspace system (NAS). Our goal is to establish an operating environment that ensures a threat-free system to preclude acts of terrorism and fatalities. As part of the process to meet this goal, our research and development activities continually search for technologies to ensure aviation security. Recent acts of terrorism against the aviation community have demonstrated an increasing level of sophistication in the design and deployment of explosive devices. In order to prevent the introduction of explosives onto an aircraft they must be detected prior to passenger and baggage loading. The Bulk Detection program is one method of developing a number of technologies that 'see' into and 'alarm' on suspect baggage. These detection devices must be capable of providing this serve with a confidence commensurate with the state-of-the- art available today. This program utilizes the expertise of government agencies, universities and industries working toward constructing their plans and executing their designs to produce the best available equipment.

  20. Summary of the FAA low data rate voice CODEC evaluation and demonstration program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grable, Markus R.

    1990-05-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration's (FAAs) low data rate voice coder/decoder (CODEC) evaluation and demonstration program is summarized. This program will assess the performance and operational characteristics of low data rate voice digitizing equipment in an aeronautical satellite link environment for air traffic control (ATC) applications. A concern of the FAA is to achieve acceptable voice performance for ATC in the most efficient manner. The FAA will recommend a low data rate voice CODEC standard for inclusion to Aeronautical Mobile Satellite Service (AMSS) voice communications based on the program results. The Phase II CODEC evaluation and results are focused upon.

  1. FAA Fluorescent Penetrant Laboratory Inspections

    SciTech Connect

    WINDES,CONNOR L.; MOORE,DAVID G.

    2000-08-02

    The Federal Aviation Administration Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center currently assesses the capability of various non-destructive inspection (NDI) methods used for analyzing aircraft components. The focus of one such exercise is to evaluate the sensitivity of fluorescent liquid penetrant inspection. A baseline procedure using the water-washable fluorescent penetrant method defines a foundation for comparing the brightness of low cycle fatigue cracks in titanium test panels. The analysis of deviations in the baseline procedure will determine an acceptable range of operation for the steps in the inspection process. The data also gives insight into the depth of each crack and which step(s) of the inspection process most affect penetrant sensitivities. A set of six low cycle fatigue cracks produced in 6.35-mm thick Ti-6Al-4V specimens was used to conduct the experiments to produce sensitivity data. The results will document the consistency of the crack readings and compare previous experiments to find the best parameters for water-washable penetrant.

  2. FAA/NASA Joint University Program for Air Transportation Research 1994-1995

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Remer, J. H.

    1998-01-01

    The Joint University Program for Air Transportation Research (JUP) is a coordinated set of three grants co-sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Under JUP, three institutions: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Princeton, and Ohio Universities receive research grants and collaborate with FAA and NASA in defining and performing civil aeronautics research in a multitude of areas. Some of these disciplines are artificial intelligence, control theory, atmospheric hazards, navigation, avionics, human factors, flight dynamics, air traffic management, and electronic communications.

  3. 49 CFR 1540.115 - Threat assessments regarding citizens of the United States holding or applying for FAA...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... means the Assistant Administrator for Intelligence for TSA. Date of service means— (1) The date of... the officer next in rank below the Administrator. FAA Administrator means the Administrator of the... posing, or is known to pose— (1) A threat to transportation or national security; (2) A threat of...

  4. 49 CFR 1540.115 - Threat assessments regarding citizens of the United States holding or applying for FAA...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... means the Assistant Administrator for Intelligence for TSA. Date of service means— (1) The date of... the officer next in rank below the Administrator. FAA Administrator means the Administrator of the... posing, or is known to pose— (1) A threat to transportation or national security; (2) A threat of...

  5. 49 CFR 1540.115 - Threat assessments regarding citizens of the United States holding or applying for FAA...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... means the Assistant Administrator for Intelligence for TSA. Date of service means— (1) The date of... the officer next in rank below the Administrator. FAA Administrator means the Administrator of the... posing, or is known to pose— (1) A threat to transportation or national security; (2) A threat of...

  6. NASA/FAA helicopter simulator workshop

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Larsen, William E. (Editor); Randle, Robert J., Jr. (Editor); Bray, Richard S. (Editor); Zuk, John (Editor)

    1992-01-01

    A workshop was convened by the FAA and NASA for the purpose of providing a forum at which leading designers, manufacturers, and users of helicopter simulators could initiate and participate in a development process that would facilitate the formulation of qualification standards by the regulatory agency. Formal papers were presented, special topics were discussed in breakout sessions, and a draft FAA advisory circular defining specifications for helicopter simulators was presented and discussed. A working group of volunteers was formed to work with the National Simulator Program Office to develop a final version of the circular. The workshop attracted 90 individuals from a constituency of simulator manufacturers, training organizations, the military, civil regulators, research scientists, and five foreign countries.

  7. 14 CFR 11.25 - How does FAA issue rules?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false How does FAA issue rules? 11.25 Section 11... RULES GENERAL RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.25 How does FAA issue rules? (a... new regulation, or to change a current regulation, FAA will issue one or more of the...

  8. 47 CFR 17.14 - Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Certain antenna structures exempt from... CONSTRUCTION, MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.14 Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA. Link to an amendment...

  9. 47 CFR 17.7 - Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Antenna structures requiring notification to..., MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.7 Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA. Link to an amendment published at 79 FR 56986,...

  10. 47 CFR 17.7 - Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Antenna structures requiring notification to..., MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.7 Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA. A notification to the Federal...

  11. 47 CFR 17.14 - Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Certain antenna structures exempt from... CONSTRUCTION, MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.14 Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA. A notification to the...

  12. 47 CFR 17.7 - Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Antenna structures requiring notification to..., MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.7 Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA. A notification to the Federal...

  13. 47 CFR 17.7 - Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Antenna structures requiring notification to..., MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.7 Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA. A notification to the Federal...

  14. 47 CFR 17.14 - Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Certain antenna structures exempt from... CONSTRUCTION, MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.14 Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA. A notification to the...

  15. 47 CFR 17.7 - Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Antenna structures requiring notification to..., MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.7 Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA. A notification to the Federal...

  16. 47 CFR 17.14 - Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Certain antenna structures exempt from... CONSTRUCTION, MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.14 Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA. A notification to the...

  17. 47 CFR 17.14 - Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Certain antenna structures exempt from... CONSTRUCTION, MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.14 Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA. A notification to the...

  18. 14 CFR Appendix A to Part 415 - FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form A Appendix A to Part 415 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH LICENSE Pt. 415, App. A Appendix A to Part...

  19. Technology Development, Validation, and Transfer Via the FAA Airworthiness Assurance Validation

    SciTech Connect

    Perry, R.L.

    1999-04-15

    In 1991, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) established an Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) at Sandia National Laboratories. Its primary mission is to support technology development, validation, and transfer to industry in order to enhance the airworthiness and improve the aircraft maintenance practices of the U.S. commercial aviation industry. The Center conducts projects in a myriad of engineering disciplines. The results are placed in the public domain so that the industry at-large can reap the benefits of FAA-funded Research and Development efforts. To support the Center's goals, the FAA/AANC has set up a hangar facility at the Albuquerque International Airport which contains a collection of transport and commuter aircraft as well as other test specimens. The facility replicates a working maintenance environment by incorporating both the physical inspection difficulties as well as the environmental factors which influence maintenance reliability.

  20. 14 CFR 11.87 - Are there circumstances in which FAA may decide not to publish a summary of my petition for...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... decide not to publish a summary of my petition for exemption? 11.87 Section 11.87 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES GENERAL RULEMAKING... in which FAA may decide not to publish a summary of my petition for exemption? The FAA may...

  1. NASA/FAA/NCAR Supercooled Large Droplet Icing Flight Research: Summary of Winter 1996-1997 Flight Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, Dean; Ratvasky, Thomas; Bernstein, Ben; McDonough, Frank; Strapp, J. Walter

    1998-01-01

    During the winter of 1996-1997, a flight research program was conducted at the NASA-Lewis Research Center to study the characteristics of Supercooled Large Droplets (SLD) within the Great Lakes region. This flight program was a joint effort between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Based on weather forecasts and real-time in-flight guidance provided by NCAR, the NASA-Lewis Icing Research Aircraft was flown to locations where conditions were believed to be conducive to the formation of Supercooled Large Droplets aloft. Onboard instrumentation was then used to record meteorological, ice accretion, and aero-performance characteristics encountered during the flight. A total of 29 icing research flights were conducted, during which "conventional" small droplet icing, SLD, and mixed phase conditions were encountered aloft. This paper will describe how flight operations were conducted, provide an operational summary of the flights, present selected experimental results from one typical research flight, and conclude with practical "lessons learned" from this first year of operation.

  2. FAA Technical Center Aeronautical Data Link Research Plan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buck, Frank; Cratch, Preston; Fischer, Terence; Lunder, Joseph; Shingledecker, Clark; Stahl, David; Sweeney, David

    1992-10-01

    The purpose of this plan is to project a clear and distinct description of the Data Link research that is to be conducted at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Technical Center over the next 4 years. It explicitly defines what is to be achieved at a specific time in the future. End-to-end, high fidelity simulations will be the primary methodology for answering research questions. The end-to-end simulations identified in this plan are intended to investigate controller/aircrew integration issues using candidate Data Link hardware and software configurations. Research will also focus on testing Data Link applications in terms of their impact on controllers, aircrew, and the overall safety, efficiency, and productivity of the system. Additionally, research efforts are planned to address the most critical human factors issues surrounding Data Link.

  3. Status of the FAA flight loads monitoring program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barnes, Terence J.; Defiore, Thomas

    1992-01-01

    In support of the Federal Aviation Administration Aging Aircraft Research Program, the Agency has established a Flight Loads Data Collection Program for Commercial Aircraft. The objectives of this Program are as follows: (1) review existing data collected by other sources including but not limited to U.S., Foreign, Military, etc.; (2) collect current operational usage data from both large and small transport aircraft; and (3) develop criteria for future generations of transports. This paper presents the status of the various programs which are completed, underway or planned. The FAA will be collecting, storing, and analyzing the data which characterize typical commercial transport operations. The airframe manufacturers will handle the task of calculating the loads and stresses.

  4. FAA/NASA En Route Noise Symposium

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Powell, Clemans A. (Compiler)

    1990-01-01

    Aircraft community noise annoyance is traditionally a concern only in localities near airports. The proposed introduction of large commercial airplanes with advanced turboprop propulsion systems with supersonic propellers has given rise to concerns of noise annoyance in areas previously considered not to be impacted by aircraft noise. A symposium was held to assess the current knowledge of factors important to the impact of en route noise and to aid in the formulation of FAA and NASA programs in the area. Papers were invited on human response to aircraft noise in areas with low ambient noise levels, aircraft noise heard indoors and outdoors, aircraft noise in recreational areas, detection of propeller and jet aircraft noise, and methodological issues relevant to the design of future studies.

  5. 32 CFR 728.58 - Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 5 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. 728.58 Section 728.58 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY PERSONNEL... Federal Agencies § 728.58 Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. (a) Beneficiaries. Air...

  6. 32 CFR 728.58 - Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 5 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. 728.58 Section 728.58 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY PERSONNEL... Federal Agencies § 728.58 Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. (a) Beneficiaries. Air...

  7. 32 CFR 728.58 - Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 5 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. 728.58 Section 728.58 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY PERSONNEL... Federal Agencies § 728.58 Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. (a) Beneficiaries. Air...

  8. 32 CFR 728.58 - Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 5 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. 728.58 Section 728.58 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY PERSONNEL... Federal Agencies § 728.58 Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. (a) Beneficiaries. Air...

  9. 32 CFR 728.58 - Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 5 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. 728.58 Section 728.58 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY PERSONNEL... Federal Agencies § 728.58 Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. (a) Beneficiaries. Air...

  10. 47 CFR 73.4102 - FAA communications, broadcast of.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false FAA communications, broadcast of. 73.4102 Section 73.4102 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED) BROADCAST RADIO SERVICES RADIO BROADCAST SERVICES Rules Applicable to All Broadcast Stations § 73.4102 FAA...

  11. Effect of model error on precipitation forecasts in the high-resolution limited area ensemble prediction system of the Korea Meteorological Administration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, SeHyun; Kim, Hyun Mee

    2015-04-01

    In numerical weather prediction using convective-scale model resolution, forecast uncertainties are caused by initial condition error, boundary condition error, and model error. Because convective-scale forecasts are influenced by subgrid scale processes which cannot be resolved easily, the model error becomes more important than the initial and boundary condition errors. To consider the model error, multi-model and multi-physics methods use several models and physics schemes and the stochastic physics method uses random numbers to create a noise term in the model equations (e.g. Stochastic Perturbed Parameterization Tendency (SPPT), Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter (SKEB), Stochastic Convective Vorticity (SCV), and Random Parameters (RP)). In this study, the RP method was used to consider the model error in the high-resolution limited area ensemble prediction system (EPS) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The EPS has 12 ensemble members with 3 km horizontal resolution which generate 48 h forecasts. The initial and boundary conditions were provided by the global EPS of the KMA. The RP method was applied to microphysics and boundary layer schemes, and the ensemble forecasts using RP were compared with those without RP during July 2013. Both Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and spread of wind at 10 m verified by surface Automatic Weather System (AWS) observations decreased when using RP. However, for 1 hour accumulated precipitation, the spread increased with RP and Equitable Threat Score (ETS) showed different results for each rainfall event.

  12. FAA Pilot Knowledge Tests: Learning or Rote Memorization?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Casner, Stephen M.; Jones, Karen M.; Puentes, Antonio; Irani, Homi

    2004-01-01

    The FAA pilot knowledge test is a multiple-choice assessment tool designed to measure the extent to which applicants for FAA pilot certificates and ratings have mastered a corpus of required aeronautical knowledge. All questions that appear on the test are drawn from a database of questions that is made available to the public. The FAA and others are concerned that releasing test questions may encourage students to focus their study on memorizing test questions. To investigate this concern, we created our own database of questions that differed from FAA questions in four different ways. Our first three question types were derived by modifying existing FAA questions: (1) rewording questions and answers; (2) shuffling answers; and (3) substituting different figures for problems that used figures. Our last question type posed a question about required knowledge for which no FAA question currently exists. Forty-eight student pilots completed one of two paper-and-pencil knowledge tests that contained a mix of these experimental questions. The results indicate significantly lower scores for some question types when compared to unaltered FAA questions to which participants had prior access.

  13. 14 CFR 39.21 - Where can I get information about FAA-approved alternative methods of compliance?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Where can I get information about FAA-approved alternative methods of compliance? 39.21 Section 39.21 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS DIRECTIVES § 39.21 Where can I...

  14. FAA Fluorescent Penetrant Activities - An Update

    SciTech Connect

    Moore, D.G.

    1998-10-20

    The Federal Aviation Administration's Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) is currently characterizing low cycle fatigue specimens that will support the needs of penetrant manufacturers, commercial airline industry and the Federal Aviation Administration. The main focus of this characterization is to maintain and enhance the evaluation of penetrant inspection materials and apply resources to support the aircraft community needs. This paper discusses efforts to-date to document the Wright Laboratory penetrant evaluation process and characterize penetrant brightness readings in the initial set of sample calibration panels using Type 1 penetrant.

  15. 76 FR 78966 - Federal Aviation Administration

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-12-20

    ... Federal Aviation Administration Approval of Noise Compatibility Program for Kona International Airport at Keahole, Keahole, North Kona, HI AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration, DOT. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announces its findings on the noise compatibility...

  16. Collegiate Aviation and FAA Air Traffic Control.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ruiz, Jose R.; Ruiz, Lorelei E.

    2003-01-01

    Based on a literature review this article describes the Air Traffic-Collegiate Training Initiative (AT-CTI) program, including objectives, the process by which postsecondary institutes become affiliated, advantages of affiliation, and the recruitment and employment of air traffic control graduates by the Federal Aviation Administration. (Contains…

  17. Forecasting forecast skill

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kalnay, Eugenia; Dalcher, Amnon

    1987-01-01

    It is shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts - a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average correlation) between members of an ensemble of forecasts started from five different analyses. The analyses had been previously derived for satellite-data-impact studies and included, in the Northern Hemisphere, moderate perturbations associated with the use of different observing systems. When the Northern Hemisphere was used as a verification region, the prediction of skill was rather poor. This is due to the fact that such a large area usually contains regions with excellent forecasts as well as regions with poor forecasts, and does not allow for discrimination between them. However, when regional verifications were used, the ensemble forecast dispersion provided a very good prediction of the quality of the individual forecasts.

  18. Evaluating the compliance of Keck's LGSAO automated aircraft protection system with FAA adopted criteria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stomski, Paul J.; Campbell, Randy; Murphy, Thomas W.

    2014-07-01

    The W. M. Keck Observatory (WMKO) applied for and received a determination of no-objection from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for laser guide star adaptive optics (LGS-AO) operations using an automated aircraft protection system (APS) in late 2013. WMKO's APS, named AIRSAFE, uses transponder based aircraft detection (TBAD) to replace human aircraft spotters. The FAA required WMKO to self-certify AIRSAFE compliance with SAE Aerospace Standard 6029A: "Performance Criteria for Laser Control Measures Used for Aviation Safety"[1] (AS- 6029A). AS-6029A prescribes performance and administrative criteria for an APS; essentially, requiring AIRSAFE to adequately protect all types of aircraft, traveling at any speed, altitude, distance and direction reasonably expected in the operating environment. A description of the analysis that comprises this compliance evaluation is the main focus of this paper. Also discussed is the AIRSAFE compliance with AS-6029A administrative criteria that includes characterization of site specific air traffic, failure modes, limitations, operating procedures, preventative maintenance procedures, and periodic system test procedures.

  19. 76 FR 6094 - FAA Public Forum To Conduct Regulatory Review

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-02-03

    ... announces an informal meeting to discuss the FAA rotorcraft rules, 14 CFR parts 27 and 29, and to gather any... Stellar, Rotorcraft Standards Staff, ASW-110, 2601 Meacham Boulevard, Fort Worth, TX 76137; telephone (817... changes to enhance rotorcraft safety. The goal is to reduce the accident/incident rate for...

  20. 14 CFR 91.1050 - Employment of former FAA employees.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... Operations Program Management § 91.1050 Employment of former FAA employees. (a) Except as specified in paragraph (c) of this section, no fractional owner or fractional ownership program manager may knowingly... of the fractional owner or fractional ownership program manager in any matter before the...

  1. 76 FR 2745 - Federal Aviation Administration

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-01-14

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Eighty-Fourth Meeting: RTCA Special Committee 159: Global Positioning System (GPS) AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Notice of RTCA Special...

  2. 77 FR 64837 - Federal Aviation Administration

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-10-23

    ... Federal Aviation Administration Fourth Meeting: RTCA Special Committee 227, Standards of Navigation Performance AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). ACTION... 15, 2012. Kathy Hitt, Management Analyst, Business Operations Group, Federal Aviation...

  3. GIS and RDBMS Used with Offline FAA Airspace Databases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clark, J.; Simmons, J.; Scofield, E.; Talbott, B.

    1994-01-01

    A geographic information system (GIS) and relational database management system (RDBMS) were used in a Macintosh environment to access, manipulate, and display off-line FAA databases of airport and navigational aid locations, airways, and airspace boundaries. This proof-of-concept effort used data available from the Adaptation Controlled Environment System (ACES) and Digital Aeronautical Chart Supplement (DACS) databases to allow FAA cartographers and others to create computer-assisted charts and overlays as reference material for air traffic controllers. These products were created on an engineering model of the future GRASP (GRaphics Adaptation Support Position) workstation that will be used to make graphics and text products for the Advanced Automation System (AAS), which will upgrade and replace the current air traffic control system. Techniques developed during the prototyping effort have shown the viability of using databases to create graphical products without the need for an intervening data entry step.

  4. 14 CFR Appendix B to Part 187 - Fees for FAA Services for Certain Flights

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... the point of exit of U.S.-controlled airspace based on FAA flight data. Fees are assessed using the... available, the best available FAA flight data will be used to calculate the entry and exit points. (2) A... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Fees for FAA Services for Certain Flights...

  5. 14 CFR Appendix B to Part 187 - Fees for FAA Services for Certain Flights

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... the point of exit of U.S.-controlled airspace based on FAA flight data. Fees are assessed using the... available, the best available FAA flight data will be used to calculate the entry and exit points. (2) A... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Fees for FAA Services for Certain Flights...

  6. 14 CFR Appendix B to Part 187 - Fees for FAA Services for Certain Flights

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... the point of exit of U.S.-controlled airspace based on FAA flight data. Fees are assessed using the... available, the best available FAA flight data will be used to calculate the entry and exit points. (2) A... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Fees for FAA Services for Certain Flights...

  7. 14 CFR Appendix B to Part 187 - Fees for FAA Services for Certain Flights

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... the point of exit of U.S.-controlled airspace based on FAA flight data. Fees are assessed using the... available, the best available FAA flight data will be used to calculate the entry and exit points. (2) A... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Fees for FAA Services for Certain Flights...

  8. 14 CFR Appendix B to Part 187 - Fees for FAA Services for Certain Flights

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... the point of exit of U.S.-controlled airspace based on FAA flight data. Fees are assessed using the... available, the best available FAA flight data will be used to calculate the entry and exit points. (2) A... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Fees for FAA Services for Certain Flights...

  9. The FAA's postmortem forensic toxicology self-evaluated proficiency test program: the second seven years.

    PubMed

    Chaturvedi, Arvind K; Craft, Kristi J; Cardona, Patrick S; Rogers, Paul B; Canfield, Dennis V

    2009-05-01

    During toxicological evaluations of samples from fatally injured pilots involved in civil aviation accidents, a high degree of quality control/quality assurance (QC/QA) is maintained. Under this philosophy, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) started a forensic toxicology proficiency-testing (PT) program in July 1991. In continuation of the first seven years of the PT findings reported earlier, PT findings of the next seven years are summarized herein. Twenty-eight survey samples (12 urine, 9 blood, and 7 tissue homogenate) with/without alcohols/volatiles, drugs, and/or putrefactive amine(s) were submitted to an average of 31 laboratories, of which an average of 25 participants returned their results. Analytes in survey samples were correctly identified and quantitated by a large number of participants, but some false positives of concern were reported. It is anticipated that the FAA's PT program will continue to serve the forensic toxicology community through this important part of the QC/QA for laboratory accreditations.

  10. A Survey of the Aircraft Maintenance Industry to Solicit Perceptions Regarding the Effectiveness of Recent Graduates of F.A.A. Approved Maintenance Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Brian, Benjamin H.

    A study examined the perceptions of employers in the aircraft maintenance industry regarding the effectiveness of recent graduates of Federal Aeronautics Administration (FAA)-approved maintenance schools. Of the 100 employers who were contacted, 68 returned usable surveys. Based on responses, it was concluded that the views of employers in the…

  11. Runways at small airports are deteriorating because of deferred maintenance: Action needed by FAA and the Congress

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1982-09-01

    Runways at many small airports are deteriorating faster than necessary because airport owners--usually local governments--have deferred critical maintenance. The result is damage to the runways' basic structure and a shortened useful life if they are not repaired. Based on GAO's review of 46 airports, studies by others, and the views of FAA officials, deferred maintenance is apparently a longstanding nationwide problem. Lack of funds is cited by airport owners as the primary reason for not performing needed maintenance; however, the Federal Aviation Administration's apathy to bring about satisfactory maintenance is a contributing cause. GAO is recommending actions that FAA can take to help ensure that runways at small airports are properly maintained. The Congress should recognize the airport owners' lack of resources to properly maintain airports when considering future revisions to the Airport Improvement Program.

  12. Evaluation of NCAR Icing/SLD Forecasts, Tools and Techniques Used During The 1998 NASA SLD Flight Season

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bernstein, Ben C.

    2001-01-01

    Supercooled Large Droplet (SLD) icing conditions were implicated in at least one recent aircraft crash, and have been associated with other aircraft incidents. Inflight encounters with SLD can result in ice accreting on unprotected areas of the wing where it can not be removed. Because this ice can adversely affect flight characteristics of some aircraft, there has been concern about flight safety in these conditions. The FAA held a conference on in-flight icing in 1996 where the state of knowledge concerning SLD was explored. One outcome of these meetings was an identified need to acquire SLD flight research data, particularly in the Great Lakes Region. The flight research data was needed by the FAA to develop a better understanding of the meteorological characteristics associated with SLD and facilitate an assessment of existing aircraft icing certification regulations with respect to SLD. In response to this need, NASA, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) conducted a cooperative icing flight research program to acquire SLD flight research data. The NASA Glenn Research Center's Twin Otter icing research aircraft was flown throughout the Great Lakes region during the winters of 1996-97 and 1997-98 to acquire SLD icing and meteorological data. The NASA Twin Otter was instrumented to measure cloud microphysical properties (particle size, LWC (Liquid Water Content), temperature, etc.), capture images of wing and tail ice accretion, and then record the resultant effect on aircraft performance due to the ice accretion. A satellite telephone link enabled the researchers onboard the Twin Otter to communicate with NCAR meteorologists. who provided real-time guidance into SLD icing conditions. NCAR meteorologists also provided preflight SLD weather forecasts that were used to plan the research flights, and served as on-board researchers. This document contains an evaluation of the tools and techniques NCAR

  13. FAA/NASA Joint University Program for Air Transportation Research: 1993-1994

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hueschen, Richard M. (Compiler)

    1995-01-01

    This report summarizes the research conducted during the academic year 1993-1994 under the NASA/FAA sponsored Joint University Program for Air Transportation Research. The year end review was held at Ohio University, Athens, Ohio, July 14-15, 1994. The Joint University Program is a coordinated set of three grants sponsored by NASA Langley Research Center and the Federal Aviation Administration, one each with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (NGL-22-009-640), Ohio University (NGR-36-009-017), and Princeton University (NGL-31-001-252). Completed works, status reports, and annotated bibliographies are presented for research topics which include navigation, guidance and control theory and practice, aircraft performance, human factors, and expert systems concepts applied to aircraft and airport operations. An overview of the year's activities for each university is also presented.

  14. FAA/NASA Joint University Program for Air Transportation Research, 1992-1993

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morrell, Frederick R. (Compiler)

    1994-01-01

    The research conducted during the academic year 1992-1993 under the FAA/NASA sponsored Joint University Program for Air Transportation Research is summarized. The year end review was held at Ohio University, Athens, Ohio, 17-18 June 1993. The Joint University Program is a coordinated set of three grants sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration and NASA Langley Research Center, one each with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Ohio University, and Princeton University. Completed works, status reports, and annotated bibliographies are presented for research topics, which include navigation, guidance, and control theory and practice, aircraft performance, human factors and air traffic management. An overview of the year's activities for each university is also presented.

  15. Time Relevance of Convective Weather Forecast for Air Traffic Automation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chan, William N.

    2006-01-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is handling nearly 120,000 flights a day through its Air Traffic Management (ATM) system and air traffic congestion is expected to increse substantially over the next 20 years. Weather-induced impacts to throughput and efficiency are the leading cause of flight delays accounting for 70% of all delays with convective weather accounting for 60% of all weather related delays. To support the Next Generation Air Traffic System goal of operating at 3X current capacity in the NAS, ATC decision support tools are being developed to create advisories to assist controllers in all weather constraints. Initial development of these decision support tools did not integrate information regarding weather constraints such as thunderstorms and relied on an additional system to provide that information. Future Decision Support Tools should move towards an integrated system where weather constraints are factored into the advisory of a Decision Support Tool (DST). Several groups such at NASA-Ames, Lincoln Laboratories, and MITRE are integrating convective weather data with DSTs. A survey of current convective weather forecast and observation data show they span a wide range of temporal and spatial resolutions. Short range convective observations can be obtained every 5 mins with longer range forecasts out to several days updated every 6 hrs. Today, the short range forecasts of less than 2 hours have a temporal resolution of 5 mins. Beyond 2 hours, forecasts have much lower temporal. resolution of typically 1 hour. Spatial resolutions vary from 1km for short range to 40km for longer range forecasts. Improving the accuracy of long range convective forecasts is a major challenge. A report published by the National Research Council states improvements for convective forecasts for the 2 to 6 hour time frame will only be achieved for a limited set of convective phenomena in the next 5 to 10 years. Improved longer range forecasts will be probabilistic

  16. An Investigation Into Criteria Commonly Used by the FAA to Grant Relief to Part 135 Operators Under FAR Sections: 135.213, 135.219, and/or 135.225

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, Louis J.; Heck, Michael L.; Burgess, Malcolm A.; Stough, H. P. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the criteria commonly used by the FAA to grant waivers, exemptions, or deviations to FAR Part 135, Sections 135.213, 135.219, and 135.225 and the potential impact on Flight Information Services Data Link (FISDL) implementation. These aviation regulations address the requirements for the use of weather reports or forecasts when conducting operations under FAR Part 135. In this study a literature search was conducted to obtain historical records of requests for relief from the 3 FAR sections under consideration. The exemption request records were then analyzed in order to determine the reasons given by the FAA for either granting or denying the request. In addition, FAA personnel and Part 135 operators were interviewed to determine the procedures used for satisfying the requirements of the 3 FAR sections.

  17. Potassium determinations using SEM, FAAS and XRF: some experimental notes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liritzis, I.; Mavrikis, D.; Zacharias, N.; Sakalis, A.; Tsirliganis, N.; Polymeris, G.S.

    The calibration of Scanning Electron Microscopy coupled with Energy Dispersive X- Rays Spec-trometry (SEM-EDS) for elemental quantitative analysis is an important task for characterization, provenance and absolute dating purposes. In particular the potassium determination is an im-portant contributor to dose rate assessments in luminescence and Electron Spin Resonance (ESR) dating. Here a SEM-EDX is calibrated on different archaeological and geoarchaeological materials against standard laboratory samples as well as measured by micro X-Rays Fluorescence (μXRF) and flame atomic absorption spectroscopy (FAAS) techniques. A common linear relationship is obtained for most elements and certain rock types used and two clear linear regressions for two types of rocks; one for granite, diorite, microgranite and sediments and another ceramic sherds, soils, marble schists, breccia. Such linear regressions become readily available for a future fast, efficient and accu-rate way of potassium determination.

  18. Use of Ground Penetrating Radar at the FAA's National Airport Pavement Test Facility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Injun, Song

    2015-04-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in the United States has used a ground-coupled Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) at the National Airport Pavement Test Facility (NAPTF) since 2005. One of the primary objectives of the testing at the facility is to provide full-scale pavement response and failure information for use in airplane landing gear design and configuration studies. During the traffic testing at the facility, a GSSI GPR system was used to develop new procedures for monitoring Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) pavement density changes that is directly related to pavement failure. After reviewing current setups for data acquisition software and procedures for identifying different pavement layers, dielectric constant and pavement thickness were selected as dominant parameters controlling HMA properties provided by GPR. A new methodology showing HMA density changes in terms of dielectric constant variations, called dielectric sweep test, was developed and applied in full-scale pavement test. The dielectric constant changes were successfully monitored with increasing airplane traffic numbers. The changes were compared to pavement performance data (permanent deformation). The measured dielectric constants based on the known HMA thicknesses were also compared with computed dielectric constants using an equation from ASTM D4748-98 Standard Test Method for Determining the Thickness of Bound Pavement Layers Using Short-Pulse Radar. Six inches diameter cylindrical cores were taken after construction and traffic testing for the HMA layer bulk specific gravity. The measured bulk specific gravity was also compared to monitor HMA density changes caused by aircraft traffic conditions. Additionally this presentation will review the applications of the FAA's ground-coupled GPR on embedded rebar identification in concrete pavement, sewer pipes in soil, and gage identifications in 3D plots.

  19. 49 CFR 23.21 - Who must submit an ACDBE program to FAA, and when?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... DISADVANTAGED BUSINESS ENTERPRISE IN AIRPORT CONCESSIONS ACDBE Programs § 23.21 Who must submit an ACDBE program... your revised ACDBE program is a condition of eligibility for FAA financial assistance. (3) Until your... DBE concessions program, and you apply for a grant of FAA funds for airport planning and...

  20. 49 CFR 23.21 - Who must submit an ACDBE program to FAA, and when?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... DISADVANTAGED BUSINESS ENTERPRISE IN AIRPORT CONCESSIONS ACDBE Programs § 23.21 Who must submit an ACDBE program... your revised ACDBE program is a condition of eligibility for FAA financial assistance. (3) Until your... DBE concessions program, and you apply for a grant of FAA funds for airport planning and...

  1. Fracture Analysis of the FAA/NASA Wide Stiffened Panels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Seshadri, B. R.; Newman, J. C., Jr.; Dawicke, D. S.; Young, R. D.

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents the fracture analyses conducted on the FAA/NASA stiffened and unstiffened panels using the STAGS (STructural Analysis of General Shells) code with the critical crack-tip-opening angle (CTOA) fracture criterion. The STAGS code with the "plane-strain" core option was used in all analyses. Previous analyses of wide, flat panels have shown that the high-constraint conditions around a crack front, like plane strain, has to be modeled in order for the critical CTOA fracture criterion to predict wide panel failures from small laboratory tests. In the present study, the critical CTOA value was determined from a wide (unstiffened) panel with anti-buckling guides. The plane-strain core size was estimated from previous fracture analyses and was equal to about the sheet thickness. Rivet flexibility and stiffener failure was based on methods and criteria, like that currently used in industry. STAGS and the CTOA criterion were used to predict load-against-crack extension for the wide panels with a single crack and multiple-site damage cracking at many adjacent rivet holes. Analyses were able to predict stable crack growth and residual strength with a few percent (5%) of stiffened panel tests results but over predicted the buckling failure load on a unstiffened panel with a single crack by 10%.

  2. Fracture Analysis of the FAA/NASA Wide Stiffened Panels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Seshadri, B. R.; Newman, J. C., Jr.; Dawicke, D. S.; Young, R. D.

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents the fracture analyses conducted on the FAA/NASA stiffened and unstiffened panels using the STAGS (STructural Analysis of General Shells) code with the critical crack-tip-opening angle (CTOA) fracture criterion. The STAGS code with the "plane-strain" core option was used in all analyses. Previous analyses of wide, flat panels have shown that the high-constraint conditions around a crack front, like plane strain, has to be modeled in order for the critical CTOA fracture criterion to predict wide panel failures from small laboratory tests. In the present study, the critical CTOA value was determined from a wide (unstiffened) panel with anti-buckling guides. The plane-strain core size was estimated from previous fracture analyses and was equal to about the sheet thickness. Rivet flexibility and stiffener failure was based on methods and criteria, like that currently used in industry. STAGS and the CTOA criterion were used to predict load-against-crack extension for the wide panels with a single crack and multiple-site damage cracking at many adjacent rivet holes. Analyses were able to predict stable crack growth and residual strength within a few percent (5%) of stiffened panel tests results but over predicted the buckling failure load on an unstiffened panel with a single crack by 10%.

  3. Controlled impact demonstration seat/cabin restraint systems: FAA

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, R. A.

    1986-01-01

    The FAA restraint system experiments consisted of 24 standard and modified seats, 2 standard galleys and 2 standard overhead compartments. Under the controlled impact demonstration (CID) program, the experimental objective was to demonstrate the effectiveness of individual restraint system designs when exposed to a survivable air-to-ground impact condition. What researchers were looking for was the performance exhibited by standard and modified designs, performance differences resulting from their installed cabin location, and interrelating performance demonstrated by test article and attaching floor and/or fuselage structure. The other restraint system experiment consisted of 2 standard overhead stowage compartments and 2 galley modules. Again, researchers were concerned with the retention of stowed equipment and carry-on articles. The overhead compartments were loaded with test weights up to their maximum capacity, and each of the galleys was filled with test articles: aft with normal galley equipment, forward with hazardous material test packages. A breakdown of instrumentation and distribution is given beginning with 11 instrumented type anthropomorphic dummies and 185 sensors which provided for acceleration and load measurements at the various experiment and associated structure locations. The onboard cameras provided additional coverage of these experiments, including the areas of cabin which were not instrumented. Test results showing the window-side leg forces versus pulse duration are given.

  4. Fishing Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    ROFFS stands for Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc. Roffer combines satellite and computer technology with oceanographic information from several sources to produce frequently updated charts sometimes as often as 30 times a day showing clues to the location of marlin, sailfish, tuna, swordfish and a variety of other types. Also provides customized forecasts for racing boats and the shipping industry along with seasonal forecasts that allow the marine industry to formulate fishing strategies based on foreknowledge of the arrival and departure times of different fish. Roffs service exemplifies the potential for benefits to marine industries from satellite observations. Most notable results are reduced search time and substantial fuel savings.

  5. 78 FR 25524 - Federal Aviation Administration

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-05-01

    ... TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Notice of Request To Release Airport Property AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Notice of Intent to Rule on Request to Release Airport Property..., Airports Compliance Specialist, Federal Aviation Administration, Airports Division, ACE- 610C, 901...

  6. Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC): NASA to FAA Research Transition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Engelland, Shawn; Davis, Thomas J.

    2013-01-01

    departure runway assignments to the Center scheduling tool. The PDRC concept also incorporates earlier NASA and FAA research into automation-assisted CFR coordination. The PDRC concept reduces uncertainty by automatically communicating coordinated release times with seconds-level precision enabling TMCs and FLMs to work with target times rather than windows. NASA has developed a PDRC prototype system that integrates the Center's TMA system with a research prototype Tower decision support tool. A two-phase field evaluation was conducted at NASA's North Texas Research Station in Dallas-Fort Worth. The field evaluation validated the PDRC concept and demonstrated reduced release time uncertainty while being used for tactical departure scheduling of more than 230 operational flights over 29 weeks of operations.

  7. 14 CFR 61.41 - Flight training received from flight instructors not certificated by the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... the FAA. (a) A person may credit flight training toward the requirements of a pilot certificate or... Armed Force in a program for training military pilots of either— (i) The United States; or (ii)...

  8. 14 CFR 61.41 - Flight training received from flight instructors not certificated by the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... the FAA. (a) A person may credit flight training toward the requirements of a pilot certificate or... Armed Force in a program for training military pilots of either— (i) The United States; or (ii)...

  9. 14 CFR 147.8 - Employment of former FAA employees.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... Section 147.8 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (CONTINUED) SCHOOLS AND OTHER CERTIFICATED AGENCIES AVIATION MAINTENANCE TECHNICIAN SCHOOLS General § 147.8... aviation maintenance technician certificate may knowingly employ or make a contractual arrangement...

  10. 14 CFR 147.8 - Employment of former FAA employees.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... Section 147.8 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (CONTINUED) SCHOOLS AND OTHER CERTIFICATED AGENCIES AVIATION MAINTENANCE TECHNICIAN SCHOOLS General § 147.8... aviation maintenance technician certificate may knowingly employ or make a contractual arrangement...

  11. 14 CFR 147.8 - Employment of former FAA employees.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... Section 147.8 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (CONTINUED) SCHOOLS AND OTHER CERTIFICATED AGENCIES AVIATION MAINTENANCE TECHNICIAN SCHOOLS General § 147.8... aviation maintenance technician certificate may knowingly employ or make a contractual arrangement...

  12. Federal Aviation Administration retained savings program proposal

    SciTech Connect

    Hostick, D.J.; Larson, L.L.; Hostick, C.J.

    1998-03-01

    Federal legislation allows federal agencies to retain up to 50% of the savings associated with implementing energy efficiency and water conservation measures and practices. Given budget pressures to reduce expenditures, the use of retained savings to fund additional projects represents a source of funds outside of the traditional budget cycle. The Southwest Region Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has tasked Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to develop a model retained savings program for Southwest Region FAA use and as a prototype for consideration by the FAA. PNNL recommends the following steps be taken in developing a Southwest Region FAA retained savings program: Establish a retained savings mechanism. Determine the level at which the retained savings should be consolidated into a fund. The preliminary recommendation is to establish a revolving efficiency loan fund at the regional level. Such a mechanism allows some consolidation of savings to fund larger projects, while maintaining a sense of facility ownership in that the funds will remain within the region.

  13. Reasonable Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Kelley R.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents a sample legal battle that illustrates school officials' "reasonable forecasts" of substantial disruption in the school environment. In 2006, two students from a Texas high school came to school carrying purses decorated with images of the Confederate flag. The school district has a zero-tolerance policy for clothing or…

  14. Aviation Maintenance Technology. Course Content Guides. FAA Approved Curriculum.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shrawder, Jack; And Others

    Course content guides are provided for the 30 courses in this aviation maintenance technology curriculum approved by the Federal Aviation Administration. Course titles are physics for technicians; aircraft information, regulations, and procedures; aircraft assembly; fundamentals of aircraft electronics; aircraft electrical components; aircraft…

  15. TRAVEL FORECASTER

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mauldin, L. E.

    1994-01-01

    Business travel planning within an organization is often a time-consuming task. Travel Forecaster is a menu-driven, easy-to-use program which plans, forecasts cost, and tracks actual vs. planned cost for business-related travel of a division or branch of an organization and compiles this information into a database to aid the travel planner. The program's ability to handle multiple trip entries makes it a valuable time-saving device. Travel Forecaster takes full advantage of relational data base properties so that information that remains constant, such as per diem rates and airline fares (which are unique for each city), needs entering only once. A typical entry would include selection with the mouse of the traveler's name and destination city from pop-up lists, and typed entries for number of travel days and purpose of the trip. Multiple persons can be selected from the pop-up lists and multiple trips are accommodated by entering the number of days by each appropriate month on the entry form. An estimated travel cost is not required of the user as it is calculated by a Fourth Dimension formula. With this information, the program can produce output of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for either organization or sub-entity of an organization; or produce outputs of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for international-only travel. It will also provide monthly and cumulative formats of planned vs. actual outputs in data or graph form. Travel Forecaster users can do custom queries to search and sort information in the database, and it can create custom reports with the user-friendly report generator. Travel Forecaster 1.1 is a database program for use with Fourth Dimension Runtime 2.1.1. It requires a Macintosh Plus running System 6.0.3 or later, 2Mb of RAM and a hard disk. The standard distribution medium for this package is one 3.5 inch 800K Macintosh format diskette. Travel Forecaster was developed in 1991. Macintosh is a registered trademark of

  16. 75 FR 12809 - Federal Aviation Administration

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-03-17

    ... Federal Aviation Administration Notice of Intent To Rule on Request To Release Airport Property at the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, DFW Airport, Texas AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA... provisions of Section 125 of the Wendell H. Ford Aviation Investment Reform Act for the 21st Century (AIR...

  17. Guidelines for Federal Aviation Administration Regional Aviation Education Coordinators and Aviation Education Facilitators.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Strickler, Mervin K., Jr.

    This publication is designed to provide both policy guidance and examples of how to work with various constituencies in planning and carrying out appropriate Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) aviation education activities. Information is provided on the history of aerospace/aviation education, FAA educational materials, aerospace/aviation…

  18. A perspective on the FAA approval process: Integrating rotorcraft displays, controls and workload

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Green, David L.; Hart, Jake; Hwoschinsky, Peter

    1993-01-01

    The FAA is responsible for making the determination that a helicopter is safe for IFR operations in the National Airspace System (NAS). This involves objective and subjective evaluations of cockpit displays, flying qualities, procedures and human factors as they affect performance and workload. After all of the objective evaluations are completed, and all Federal Regulations have been met, FAA pilots make the final subjective judgement as to suitability for use by civil pilots in the NAS. The paper uses the flying qualities and pilot workload characteristics of a small helicopter to help examine the FAA pilot's involvement in this process. The result highlights the strengths of the process and its importance to the approval of new aircraft and equipments for civil IFR helicopter applications. The paper also identifies opportunities for improvement.

  19. FAA Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) operated by Sandia National Laboratories.

    SciTech Connect

    Roach, Dennis Patrick; Hartman, Roger D.

    2010-09-01

    Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) objectives are: (1) Enhance aircraft safety and reliability; (2) Aid developing advanced aircraft designs and maintenance techniques; (3) Provide our customers with comprehensive, independent, and quantitative/qualitative evaluations of new and enhanced inspection, maintenance, and repair techniques; (4) Facilitate transferring effective technologies into the aviation industry; (5) Support FAA rulemaking process by providing guidance on content & necessary tools to meet requirements or recommendations of FARs, ADs, ACs, SBs, SSIDs, CPCP, and WFD; and (6) Coordinate with and respond to Airworthiness Assurance Working Group (AAWG) in support of FAA Aviation Rulemaking Advisory Committee (ARAC).

  20. Communicating Environmental Uncertainty: The Nature of Weather Forecasts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Travis, Richard W.; Riebsame, William E.

    1979-01-01

    Traces the path of weather forecasts from the time they are made by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration until the time they are received by the public through the mass media. The purpose of the article is to provide geography teachers with basic information on weather forecasts, interpretation of forecast terms, and indications…

  1. Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA Conference on Fibrous Composites in Structural Design, volume 3

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Soderquist, Joseph R. (Compiler); Neri, Lawrence M. (Compiler); Bohon, Herman L. (Compiler)

    1992-01-01

    This publication contains the proceedings of the Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA Conference on Fibrous Composites in Structural Design held at Lake Tahoe, Nevada, during 4-7 Nov. 1991. Presentations were made in the following areas of composite structural design: perspectives in composites, design methodology, design applications, design criteria, supporting technology, damage tolerance, and manufacturing.

  2. Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA Conference on Fibrous Composites in Structural Design, volume 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Soderquist, Joseph R. (Compiler); Neri, Lawrence M. (Compiler); Bohon, Herman L. (Compiler)

    1992-01-01

    This publication contains the proceedings of the Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA Conference on Fibrous Composites in Structural Design held at Lake Tahoe, Nevada, during 4-7 Nov. 1991. Presentations were made in the following areas of composite structural design: perspectives in composites, design methodology, design applications, design criteria, supporting technology, damage tolerance, and manufacturing.

  3. Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA Conference on Fibrous Composites in Structural Design, volume 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Soderquist, Joseph R. (Compiler); Neri, Lawrence M. (Compiler); Bohon, Herman L. (Compiler)

    1992-01-01

    This publication contains the proceedings of the Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA conference on Fibrous Composites in structural Design. Presentations were made in the following areas of composite structural design: perspectives in composites; design methodology; design applications; design criteria; supporting technology; damage tolerance; and manufacturing.

  4. The genomic organization of the Fanconi anemia group A (FAA) gene

    SciTech Connect

    Ianzano, L.; Centra, M.; Savino, M.

    1997-05-01

    Fanconi anemia (FA) is a genetically heterogeneous disease involving at least five genes on the basis of complementation analysis (FAA to FAE). The FAA gene has been recently isolated by two independent approaches, positional and functional cloning. In the present study we describe the genomic structure of the FAA gene. The gene contains 43 exons spanning approximately 80 kb as determined by the alignment of four cosmids and the fine localization of the first and the last exons in restriction fragments of these clones. Exons range from 34 to 188 bp. All but three of the splice sites were consistent with the ag-gt rule. We also describe three alternative splicing events in cDNA clones that result in the loss of exon 37, a 23-bp deletion at the 5{prime} end of exon 41. Sequence analysis of the 5{prime} region upstream of the putative transcription start site showed no obvious TATA and CAAT boxes, but did show a GC-rich region, typical of housekeeping genes. Knowledge of the structure of the FAA gene will provide an invaluable resource for the discovery of mutations in the gene that accounts for about 60-66% of FA patients. 24 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  5. Forecast Mekong

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Turnipseed, D. Phil

    2011-01-01

    Forecast Mekong is part of the U.S. Department of State's Lower Mekong Initiative, which was launched in 2009 by Secretary Hillary Clinton and the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam to enhance partnerships between the U.S. and the Lower Mekong River countries in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is working in close cooperation with the U.S. Department of State to use research and data from the Lower Mekong Basin to provide hands-on results that will help decision makers in Lower Mekong River countries in the planning and design for restoration, conservation, and management efforts in the basin.

  6. 49 CFR 23.45 - What are the requirements for submitting overall goal information to the FAA?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... you concluded your goals were appropriate. This means that you must provide to the FAA the data, calculations, assumptions, and reasoning used in establishing your goals. (f) Your submission must include your...-conscious means, respectively, and the basis for making this projection (see § 23.51(d)(5)) (g) FAA...

  7. Extraction of nickel from edible oils with a complexing agent prior to determination by FAAS.

    PubMed

    Tokay, Feyzullah; Bağdat, Sema

    2016-04-15

    In the present work, a new extraction method for separation of nickel from edible oils and determination by FAAS is reported. This method is based on extraction of Ni(II) ions from the oil to aqueous phase with N,N'-bis(4-methoxysalicylidene) ethylenediamine (MSE) and determination by FAAS. Properties of the complex formed between MSE and Ni(II) were investigated spectrophotometrically. Central composite design (CCD) was utilized for optimization of MSE to oil, stirring time and temperature, which were 0.97 mL g(-1), 15.4 min, and 29.7°C, respectively. The developed method was tested with an oil-based metal standard and the recovery was 93.8±3.9%. The proposed method was applied with five different edible oils. PMID:26616973

  8. Proceedings of the FAA-NASA Symposium on the Continued Airworthiness of Aircraft Structures. Volume 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bigelow, Catherine A. (Compiler)

    1997-01-01

    This publication contains the fifty-two technical papers presented at the FAA-NASA Symposium on the Continued Airworthiness of Aircraft Structures. The symposium, hosted by the FAA Center of Excellence for Computational Modeling of Aircraft Structures at Georgia Institute of Technology, was held to disseminate information on recent developments in advanced technologies to extend the life of high-time aircraft and design longer-life aircraft. Affiliations of the participants included 33% from government agencies and laboratories, 19% from academia, and 48% from industry; in all 240 people were in attendance. Technical papers were selected for presentation at the symposium, after a review of extended abstracts received by the Organizing Committee from a general call for papers.

  9. New method for speciation analysis of aluminium fluoride complexes by HPLC-FAAS hyphenated technique.

    PubMed

    Frankowski, M; Zioła-Frankowska, A; Siepak, J

    2010-03-15

    Speciation analysis of aluminium in the presented system of HPLC-FAAS hyphenated technique lasts 4min. Using the bifunctional column in model analysis and using the calculation methods for modelling using the Mineql program enabled the authors to presume that particular forms will be subjected to elution in the following order: (1) AlF(2)(+) and AlF(4)(-), (2) AlF(2+) and AlF(3)(0) and (3) Al(3+). Based on the obtained results for model solutions, the presented method enables the determination of aluminium fluoride complexes and Al(3+) speciation form. The study compares the tendency of occurrence variability of aluminium fluoride complexes and Al(3+) form, determined based on the results obtained using the HPLC-FAAS hyphenated technique with the trend defined based on the Mineql program calculation method. The method was successfully applied to soil samples. PMID:20152461

  10. Proceedings of the FAA-NASA Symposium on the Continued Airworthiness of Aircraft Structures. Volume 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bigelow, Catherine A. (Compiler)

    1997-01-01

    This publication contains the fifty-two technical papers presented at the FAA-NASA Symposium on the Continued Airworthiness of Aircraft Structures. The symposium, hosted by the FAA Center of Excellence for Computational Modeling of Aircraft Structures at Georgia Institute of Technology, was held to disseminate information on recent developments in advanced technologies to extend the life of high-time aircraft and design longer-life aircraft. Affiliations of the participants included 33% from government agencies and laboratories, 19% from academia, and 48% from industry; in all 240 people were in attendance. Technical papers were selected for presentation at the symposium, after a review of extended abstracts received by the Organizing Committee from a general call for papers.

  11. NextGen Technologies on the FAA's Standard Terminal Automation Replacement System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Witzberger, Kevin; Swenson, Harry; Martin, Lynne; Lin, Melody; Cheng, Jinn-Hwei

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the integration, evaluation, and results from a high-fidelity human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulation of key NASA Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration - 1 (ATD- 1) technologies implemented in an enhanced version of the FAA's Standard Terminal Automation Replacement System (STARS) platform. These ATD-1 technologies include: (1) a NASA enhanced version of the FAA's Time-Based Flow Management, (2) a NASA ground-based automation technology known as controller-managed spacing (CMS), and (3) a NASA advanced avionics airborne technology known as flight-deck interval management (FIM). These ATD-1 technologies have been extensively tested in large-scale HITL simulations using general-purpose workstations to study air transportation technologies. These general purpose workstations perform multiple functions and are collectively referred to as the Multi-Aircraft Control System (MACS). Researchers at NASA Ames Research Center and Raytheon collaborated to augment the STARS platform by including CMS and FIM advisory tools to validate the feasibility of integrating these automation enhancements into the current FAA automation infrastructure. NASA Ames acquired three STARS terminal controller workstations, and then integrated the ATD-1 technologies. HITL simulations were conducted to evaluate the ATD-1 technologies when using the STARS platform. These results were compared with the results obtained when the ATD-1 technologies were tested in the MACS environment. Results collected from the numerical data show acceptably minor differences, and, together with the subjective controller questionnaires showing a trend towards preferring STARS, validate the ATD-1/STARS integration.

  12. Survey: Federal Aviation Administration National Communication Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    The National Communication (NATCOM) Center (commonly known as the FAA Weather Message Switching Center), is a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) facility with responsibility for providing communication switching services to the National Weather Service (NWS), the FAA, commercial and private flight organizations under the auspices of the FAA, and DoD. Data handled by NATCOM include weather data, flight plans, and Notices to Airmen (NOTAMS) on both national and international networks. The communications and data management functions are handled through four computer-controlled communication networks designated as WMSC, AFTN, A-BDIS, and NASNET. The functions of these networks are discussed with emphasis on those networks that support the different elements of the NWS. The primary network of concern to NASA, the WMSC (Weather Message Switching Center) network, performs approximately 60 percent of its work for the NWS, 20 percent for the State Department, and 20 percent for the FAA. This document discusses the current and future systems capabilities and workload of NATCOM in terms of new roles.

  13. Improved Anvil Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lambert, Winifred C.

    2000-01-01

    This report describes the outcome of Phase 1 of the AMU's Improved Anvil Forecasting task. Forecasters in the 45th Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group have found that anvil forecasting is a difficult task when predicting LCC and FR violations. The purpose of this task is to determine the technical feasibility of creating an anvil-forecasting tool. Work on this study was separated into three steps: literature search, forecaster discussions, and determination of technical feasibility. The literature search revealed no existing anvil-forecasting techniques. However, there appears to be growing interest in anvils in recent years. If this interest continues to grow, more information will be available to aid in developing a reliable anvil-forecasting tool. The forecaster discussion step revealed an array of methods on how better forecasting techniques could be developed. The forecasters have ideas based on sound meteorological principles and personal experience in forecasting and analyzing anvils. Based on the information gathered in the discussions with the forecasters, the conclusion of this report is that it is technically feasible at this time to develop an anvil forecasting technique that will significantly contribute to the confidence in anvil forecasts.

  14. Federal Aviation Administration Curriculum Guide for Aviation Magnet Schools Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Strickler, Mervin K., Jr.

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and its predecessor organizations, Civil Aeronautics Agency (CAA) and the Civil Aeronautics Administration (CAA) have pioneered the use of aviation education in working with schools and colleges of the nation to attain their objectives. This publication includes: a brief history of the role of aviation in…

  15. AN OPERATIONAL EVALUATION OF THE ETA-CMAQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in collaboration with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), are developing an Air Quality Forecasting Program that will eventually result in an operational Nationwide Air Quality Forecasting System. The initial pha...

  16. Factors Contributing to Financial Aid Administrators' Job Satisfaction: NASFAA 2008 Financial Aid Administrators' Job Satisfaction Survey Results

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators (NJ1), 2008

    2008-01-01

    In what kind of job environment are financial aid administrators (FAA) currently working? How satisfied are they with their jobs? What motivates them and what factors are considered morale dampers? How are financial aid (FA) functions viewed by campus' top administrators? Does FA get similar respect and appreciation from their campus peer offices…

  17. Evaluation of Flood Forecast and Warning in Elbe river basin - Impact of Forecaster's Strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Danhelka, Jan; Vlasak, Tomas

    2010-05-01

    Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) is responsible for flood forecasting and warning in the Czech Republic. To meet that issue CHMI operates hydrological forecasting systems and publish flow forecast in selected profiles. Flood forecast and warning is an output of system that links observation (flow and atmosphere), data processing, weather forecast (especially NWP's QPF), hydrological modeling and modeled outputs evaluation and interpretation by forecaster. Forecast users are interested in final output without separating uncertainties of separate steps of described process. Therefore an evaluation of final operational forecasts was done for profiles within Elbe river basin produced by AquaLog forecasting system during period 2002 to 2008. Effects of uncertainties of observation, data processing and especially meteorological forecasts were not accounted separately. Forecast of flood levels exceedance (peak over the threshold) during forecasting period was the main criterion as flow increase forecast is of the highest importance. Other evaluation criteria included peak flow and volume difference. In addition Nash-Sutcliffe was computed separately for each time step (1 to 48 h) of forecasting period to identify its change with the lead time. Textual flood warnings are issued for administrative regions to initiate flood protection actions in danger of flood. Flood warning hit rate was evaluated at regions level and national level. Evaluation found significant differences of model forecast skill between forecasting profiles, particularly less skill was evaluated at small headwater basins due to domination of QPF uncertainty in these basins. The average hit rate was 0.34 (miss rate = 0.33, false alarm rate = 0.32). However its explored spatial difference is likely to be influenced also by different fit of parameters sets (due to different basin characteristics) and importantly by different impact of human factor. Results suggest that the practice of interactive

  18. Requirements of Operational Verification of the NWSRFS-ESP Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Imam, B.; Werner, K.; Hartmann, H.; Sorooshian, S.; Pritchard, E.

    2006-12-01

    Forecast verification is the process of determining the quality of forecasts. This requires the utilization of quality measures that summarize one or more aspects of the relationship between forecasts and observations. Technically, the three main objectives of forecast verification are (a) monitoring, (b) improving, and (c) comparing the quality of different forecasting systems. However, users of forecast verification results range from administrators, who want to know the value of investing in forecast system improvement to forecasters and modelers, who want to assess areas of improving their own predictions, to forecast users, who weigh their decision based not only on the forecast but also on the perceived quality of such forecast. Our discussions with several forecasters and hydrologists in charge at various River Forecast Centers (RFCs) indicated that operational hydrologists view verification in a broader sense than their counterparts within the meteorological community. Their view encompasses verification as a possible tool in determining whether a forecast is ready for issuance as an "official" product or that it needs more work. In addition to the common challenges associated with verification of monthly and seasonal probabilistic forecasts. which include determining and obtaining the appropriate size of "forecast-observation" pairs data set, operational verification also requires the consideration of verification strategies for short-term forecasts. Under such condition, the identification of conditional verification (i.e., similar conditions) samples, tracking model states, input, and output, relative to their climatology, and the establishment of links between the forecast issuance, verification, and simulation components of the forecast system become important. In this presentation, we address the impacts of such view on the potential requirements of an operational verification system for the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) component of the

  19. Load forecasting by ANN

    SciTech Connect

    Highley, D.D.; Hilmes, T.J. )

    1993-07-01

    This article discusses the use and training of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for load forecasting. The topics of the article include a brief overview of neural networks, interest in ANNs, training of neural networks, a case study in load forecasting, and the potential for using an artificial neural network to perform short-term load forecasting.

  20. Forecast `97

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, D.

    1996-12-01

    Many lawmakers and environmental professionals would probably like to leave memories of the last year behind them. It would be remembered as the year of daunted expectations -- the year politics derailed the business of the environment. The Republican-controlled Congress had just come roaring out of 1995, the ``revolutionary`` year, only to find itself stymied by a funding stalemate in the first half of 1996. The Clinton/Gore administration found itself labeled ineffectual on the environment by some critics, and intractable on it by others. Luckily, after staring into the budget abyss through the winter of 1995, the political combatants seem to have had a change of heart. Funding for the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was approved with an almost genteel lack of confrontation. If for no other reason, 1997 should seem like a cake walk by comparison. Without many major casting changes after the November elections, the political drama surrounding the environment nonetheless will seem less like a tragedy. Perhaps the issue most emblematic of the problems facing the industry, and the 105th Congress, is Superfund reform. There are few laws as divisive as Superfund that are, at the same time, so critically important to the way an industry does business. Many of the stakeholders in the Superfund reauthorization process think this is the year something will actually get done.

  1. An Algorithm Combining for Objective Prediction with Subjective Forecast Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, JunTae; Kim, SooHyun

    2016-04-01

    As direct or post-processed output from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models has begun to show acceptable performance compared with the predictions of human forecasters, many national weather centers have become interested in automatic forecasting systems based on NWP products alone, without intervention from human forecasters. The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) is now developing an automatic forecasting system for dry variables. The forecasts are automatically generated from NWP predictions using a post processing model (MOS). However, MOS cannot always produce acceptable predictions, and sometimes its predictions are rejected by human forecasters. In such cases, a human forecaster should manually modify the prediction consistently at points surrounding their corrections, using some kind of smart tool to incorporate the forecaster's opinion. This study introduces an algorithm to revise MOS predictions by adding a forecaster's subjective forecast information at neighbouring points. A statistical relation between two forecast points - a neighbouring point and a dependent point - was derived for the difference between a MOS prediction and that of a human forecaster. If the MOS prediction at a neighbouring point is updated by a human forecaster, the value at a dependent point is modified using a statistical relationship based on linear regression, with parameters obtained from a one-year dataset of MOS predictions and official forecast data issued by KMA. The best sets of neighbouring points and dependent point are statistically selected. According to verification, the RMSE of temperature predictions produced by the new algorithm was slightly lower than that of the original MOS predictions, and close to the RMSE of subjective forecasts. For wind speed and relative humidity, the new algorithm outperformed human forecasters.

  2. An Administrator Goes to Congress.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Penning, Nick

    1989-01-01

    A school administrator, who became minority staff director for the United States Senate Subcommittee on Education, Arts, and Humanities, forecasts that early childhood programs will achieve funding at the expense of the block grants of Chapter 2. (MLF)

  3. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  4. The Federal Aviation Administration/Massachusetts Institute of Technology (FAA/MIT) Lincoln Laboratory Doppler weather radar program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Evans, James E.

    1988-01-01

    The program focuses on providing real-time information on hazardous aviation weather to end users such as air traffic control and pilots. Existing systems will soon be replaced by a Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD), which will be concerned with detecting such hazards as heavy rain and hail, turbulence, low-altitude wind shear, and mesocyclones and tornadoes. Other systems in process are the Central Weather Processor (CWP), and the terminal Doppler weather radar (TDWR). Weather measurements near Memphis are central to ongoing work, especially in the area of microbursts and wind shear.

  5. Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wetterhall, Fredrik; Pappenberger, Florian; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Cloke, Hannah; Thielen, Jutta

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

  6. Weather forecasting expert system study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

  7. THE NEW ENGLAND AIR QUALITY FORECASTING PILOT PROGRAM: DEVELOPMENT OF AN EVALUATION PROTOCOL AND PERFORMANCE BENCHMARK

    EPA Science Inventory

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently sponsored the New England Forecasting Pilot Program to serve as a "test bed" for chemical forecasting by providing all of the elements of a National Air Quality Forecasting System, including the development and implemen...

  8. Weather assessment and forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    Data management program activities centered around the analyses of selected far-term Office of Applications (OA) objectives, with the intent of determining if significant data-related problems would be encountered and if so what alternative solutions would be possible. Three far-term (1985 and beyond) OA objectives selected for analyses as having potential significant data problems were large-scale weather forecasting, local weather and severe storms forecasting, and global marine weather forecasting. An overview of general weather forecasting activities and their implications upon the ground based data system is provided. Selected topics were specifically oriented to the use of satellites.

  9. Advanced chaos forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doerner, R.; Hübinger, B.; Martienssen, W.

    1994-07-01

    The exponential separation of initially adjacent trajectories restricts the predictability of deterministic chaotic motions. The predictability depends on the initial state from where the trajectory starts that shall be forecasted. By calculating the predictability simultaneously with the forecast, we are able to reject forecasts with low reliability immediately, thereby decreasing drastically the average forecast error. We test this scheme experimentally on Chua's circuit [Komuro, Tokunaga, Matsumoto, Chua, and Hotta, Int. J. Bifurc. Chaos 1, 139 (1991)], basing all calculations only on a time series of a single scalar variable.

  10. Automating test case generation for coverages required by FAA standard DO-178B

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Voas, Jeffrey M.; Payne, Jeffery E.; Miller, Keith W.

    1993-01-01

    Coverage testing techniques are required by the FAA for various levels of subsystem criticality at the unit testing level. Higher levels of criticality require coverage schemes that frequently require more and more test cases, particularly when the number of conditions in a decision grows. For example, if we have a decision with n conditions of the form: if (/ci/ or /c2/ or .... or /cn/) then there are 2(n) possible combinations of condition outcomes. Given the enormous number of inputs that may be required to satisfy different coverages, and given that there are no automated tools for determining these inputs (to our knowledge), we will show how one alternative testing technique, mutation testing, can be coerced into generating inputs that satisfy a code coverage scheme X, i.e., if we modify the rules for mutant generation during mutation testing, this technique will provide test cases that satisfy X.

  11. An overview of the joint FAA/NASA aircraft/ground runway friction program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yager, Thomas J.

    1989-01-01

    There is a need for information on runways which may become slippery due to various forms and types of contaminants. Experience has shown that since the beginning of all weather aircraft operations, there have been landing and aborted takeoff incidents and/or accidents each year where aircraft have either run off the end or veered off the shoulder of low friction runways. NASA Langley's Landing and Impact Dynamics Branch is involved in several research programs directed towards obtaining a better understanding of how different tire properties interact with varying pavement surface characteristics to produce acceptable performance for aircraft ground handling requirements. One such effort, which was jointly supported by not only NASA and the FAA but by several aviation industry groups including the Flight Safety Foundation, is described.

  12. NASA/FAA Helicopter ATC simulation investigation of RNAV/MLS instrument approaches

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peach, L. L., Jr.; Tobias, L.; Lee, H. Q.

    1982-01-01

    The NASA/FAA Helicopter Air Traffic Control (ATC) simulation investigations to determine the feasibility of simultaneous, independent instrument approach procedures for helicopters at major terminal areas, using Area Navigation/Microwave Landing System (RNAV/MLS) guidance, was conducted at several levels of helicopter display sophistication, up to that of a Cockpit Display of Traffic Information (CDTI) system. Test objectives included the determination of pilot acceptability and the tracking performance of the RNAV/MLS's noninterfering rotorcraft approach path structure, along with the evaluation of the effect on controller workload of multiroute structures combining conventional and rotorcraft approaches at various arrival rates and traffic separations. The utility of electronic area maps and CDTI displays was also investigated. Participating pilots flew 127 simulated instrument approaches in an ATC simulation laboratory.

  13. CSLAA and FAA'S Rules: Incorporating a 'Risk Management Framework' to Minimise Human Space Flight Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaddha, S.

    2012-01-01

    th This year marks the 50 anniversary of a landmark victory for humankind in its endeavour of entering and exploring the final frontier. During these years of space activity, we have witnessed a number of cumulative successes. One of which is the emergence of the commercial human space flight, or "space tourism", market. Commercial companies have the aim of travelling people into space safely and affordably. This paper shall consider the U.S. regulatory framework governing the space tourism market. It scrutinises the adequacy of the Commercial Space Launch and Amendment Act of 2004 (CSLAA), as bolstered by the FAA's requirements, to protect launching passengers to an acceptable standard of safety from the inherent risks associated with human space flights. It is argued that the legislative regime embeds a three-limb "risk management framework" as an appropriate response to address the concern over the safety of public space travel.

  14. NASA,FAA,ONERA Swept-Wing Icing and Aerodynamics: Summary of Research and Current Status

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Broeren, Andy

    2015-01-01

    NASA, FAA, ONERA, and other partner organizations have embarked on a significant, collaborative research effort to address the technical challenges associated with icing on large scale, three-dimensional swept wings. These are extremely complex phenomena important to the design, certification and safe operation of small and large transport aircraft. There is increasing demand to balance trade-offs in aircraft efficiency, cost and noise that tend to compete directly with allowable performance degradations over an increasing range of icing conditions. Computational fluid dynamics codes have reached a level of maturity that they are being proposed by manufacturers for use in certification of aircraft for flight in icing. However, sufficient high-quality data to evaluate their performance on iced swept wings are not currently available in the public domain and significant knowledge gaps remain.

  15. Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) Overview and Results: NASA to FAA Research Transition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Engelland, Shawn; Davis, Tom.

    2013-01-01

    NASA researchers developed the Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) concept to improve the tactical departure scheduling process. The PDRC system is comprised of: 1) a surface automation system that computes ready time predictions and departure runway assignments, 2) an en route scheduling automation tool that uses this information to estimate ascent trajectories to the merge point and computes release times and, 3) an interface that provides two-way communication between the two systems. To minimize technology transfer issues and facilitate its adoption by TMCs and Frontline Managers (FLM), NASA developed the PDRC prototype using the Surface Decision Support System (SDSS) for the Tower surface automation tool, a research version of the FAA TMA (RTMA) for en route automation tool and a digital interface between the two DSTs to facilitate coordination.

  16. An Enhanced Convective Forecast (ECF) for the New York TRACON Area

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wheeler, Mark; Stobie, James; Gillen, Robert; Jedlovec, Gary; Sims, Danny

    2008-01-01

    In an effort to relieve summer-time congestion in the NY Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) area, the FAA is testing an enhanced convective forecast (ECF) product. The test began in June 2008 and is scheduled to run through early September. The ECF is updated every two hours, right before the Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) national planning telcon. It is intended to be used by traffic managers throughout the National Airspace System (NAS) and airlines dispatchers to supplement information from the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) and the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS). The ECF begins where the current CIWS forecast ends at 2 hours and extends out to 12 hours. Unlike the CCFP it is a detailed deterministic forecast with no aerial coverage limits. It is created by an ENSCO forecaster using a variety of guidance products including, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. This is the same version of the WRF that ENSCO runs over the Florida peninsula in support of launch operations at the Kennedy Space Center. For this project, the WRF model domain has been shifted to the Northeastern US. Several products from the NASA SPoRT group are also used by the ENSCO forecaster. In this paper we will provide examples of the ECF products and discuss individual cases of traffic management actions using ECF guidance.

  17. USWRP Workshop on Air Quality Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Dabberdt, Walter F.; Carroll, Mary Anne; Appleby, William; Baumgardner, Darrel; Carmichael, Gregory; Davidson, Paula; Doran, J. C.; Dye, Timothy G.; Grimmond, Susan; Middleton, Paulette; Neff, William; Zhang, Yang

    2006-02-01

    There has recently been increased emphasis on air quality forecasting (AQF) and the research and development activities that are required to improve AQF skill and implement an operational AQF capability. In November 2001, the US Weather Research Program (USWRP) charged Prospectus Develop Team 11 with identification of the meteorological research needs for improved air quality forecasting (Dabberdt et al. 2004a). Subsequently, the Interagency Working Group (IWG) of the USWRP tentatively adopted Air Quality as one of its principal scientific foci. In addition, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have made substantial progress towards developing an operational air quality forecast system. With these activities as background, the lead scientist of the USWRP requested that a community workshop be conducted to further define and prioritize AQF research needs and opportunities. The results of the workshop would then be used in the development of an Implementation Plan that the IWG would use to prioritize and support research directed at improving air quality knowledge, monitoring and forecasting capabilities, and evaluating new air quality forecast products. The resulting USWRP Air Quality Forecasting Workshop was held April 29 – May 1, 2003, in Houston, Texas. This report summarizes the findings and recommendations.

  18. Aviation Forecasting in ICAO

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcmahon, J.

    1972-01-01

    Opinions or plans of qualified experts in the field are used for forecasting future requirements for air navigational facilities and services of international civil aviation. ICAO periodically collects information from Stators and operates on anticipated future operations, consolidates this information, and forecasts the future level of activity at different airports.

  19. The HFIP High Resolution Hurricane Forecast Test

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nance, L. B.; Bernardet, L.; Bao, S.; Brown, B.; Carson, L.; Fowler, T.; Halley Gotway, J.; Harrop, C.; Szoke, E.; Tollerud, E. I.; Wolff, J.; Yuan, H.

    2010-12-01

    Tropical cyclones are a serious concern for the nation, causing significant risk to life, property and economic vitality. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service has a mission of issuing tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings, aimed at protecting life and property and enhancing the national economy. In the last 10 years, the errors in hurricane track forecasts have been reduced by about 50% through improved model guidance, enhanced observations, and forecaster expertise. However, little progress has been made during this period toward reducing forecasted intensity errors. To address this shortcoming, NOAA established the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) in 2007. HFIP is a 10-year plan to improve one to five day tropical cyclone forecasts, with a focus on rapid intensity change. Recent research suggests that prediction models with grid spacing less than 1 km in the inner core of the hurricane may provide a substantial improvement in intensity forecasts. The 2008-09 staging of the High Resolution Hurricane (HRH) Test focused on quantifying the impact of increased horizontal resolution in numerical models on hurricane intensity forecasts. The primary goal of this test was an evaluation of the effect of increasing horizontal resolution within a given model across a variety of storms with different intensity, location and structure. The test focused on 69 retrospectives cases from the 2005 and 2007 hurricane seasons. Six modeling groups participated in the HRH test utilizing a variety of models, including three configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the operational GFDL model, the Navy’s tropical cyclone model, and a model developed at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UWM). The Development Testbed Center (DTC) was tasked with providing objective verification statistics for a variety of metrics. This presentation provides an overview of the HRH Test and a summary of the standard

  20. 14 CFR 11.35 - Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? 11.35 Section 11.35... RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.35 Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? (a) Sensitive...

  1. 49 CFR 23.45 - What are the requirements for submitting overall goal information to the FAA?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... goal information to the FAA? 23.45 Section 23.45 Transportation Office of the Secretary of Transportation PARTICIPATION OF DISADVANTAGED BUSINESS ENTERPRISE IN AIRPORT CONCESSIONS Goals, Good Faith Efforts, and Counting § 23.45 What are the requirements for submitting overall goal information to the...

  2. 14 CFR 11.35 - Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? 11.35 Section 11.35... RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.35 Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? (a) Sensitive...

  3. 41 CFR 102-37.530 - What are FAA's responsibilities in the donation of surplus property to public airports?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... responsibilities in the donation of surplus property to public airports? 102-37.530 Section 102-37.530 Public... MANAGEMENT REGULATION PERSONAL PROPERTY 37-DONATION OF SURPLUS PERSONAL PROPERTY Donations to Public Airports § 102-37.530 What are FAA's responsibilities in the donation of surplus property to public airports?...

  4. 41 CFR 102-37.530 - What are FAA's responsibilities in the donation of surplus property to public airports?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... responsibilities in the donation of surplus property to public airports? 102-37.530 Section 102-37.530 Public... MANAGEMENT REGULATION PERSONAL PROPERTY 37-DONATION OF SURPLUS PERSONAL PROPERTY Donations to Public Airports § 102-37.530 What are FAA's responsibilities in the donation of surplus property to public airports?...

  5. 14 CFR 193.17 - How must design and production approval holders handle information they receive from the FAA...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... REGULATIONS PROTECTION OF VOLUNTARILY SUBMITTED INFORMATION § 193.17 How must design and production approval... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false How must design and production approval holders handle information they receive from the FAA under this part? 193.17 Section 193.17...

  6. 78 FR 33146 - Notice of Proposal Policy for Distribution of FAA Data and Information; Extension of Comment Period

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-06-03

    .... ACTION: Notice for Data and Information Policy; Extension of comment period. SUMMARY: This action extends the comment period set out in the notice concerning data and information policy that was published on May 1, 2013. In that document, the FAA proposed its data and information distribution policy...

  7. 14 CFR 11.35 - Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? 11.35 Section 11.35... RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.35 Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? (a) Sensitive...

  8. 14 CFR 11.35 - Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? 11.35 Section 11.35... RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.35 Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? (a) Sensitive...

  9. 14 CFR 11.35 - Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? 11.35 Section 11.35... RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.35 Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? (a) Sensitive...

  10. 14 CFR 11.89 - How much time do I have to submit comments to FAA on a petition for exemption?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false How much time do I have to submit comments to FAA on a petition for exemption? 11.89 Section 11.89 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION... Petitions for Rulemaking and for Exemption § 11.89 How much time do I have to submit comments to FAA on...

  11. ARRA FEMP Technical Assistance -- Federal Aviation Administration Project 209 -- Control Tower and Support Building, Palm Springs, CA

    SciTech Connect

    Arends, J.; Sandusky, William F.

    2010-03-31

    This report represents findings of a design review team that evaluated construction documents (at the 100% level) and operating specifications for a new control tower and support building that will be built in Palm Springs, California by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The focus of the review was to identify measures that could be incorporated into the final design and operating specifications that would result in additional energy savings for the FAA that would not have otherwise occurred.

  12. Value of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts: Assessment by Real-Time Optimization of Irrigation Scheduling

    SciTech Connect

    Cai, Ximing; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Wang, Dingbao

    2011-09-29

    This paper presents a modeling framework for real-time decision support for irrigation scheduling using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) probabilistic rainfall forecasts. The forecasts and their probability distributions are incorporated into a simulation-optimization modeling framework. In this study, modeling irrigation is determined by a stochastic optimization program based on the simulated soil moisture and crop water-stress status and the forecasted rainfall for the next 1-7 days. The modeling framework is applied to irrigated corn in Mason County, Illinois. It is found that there is ample potential to improve current farmers practices by simply using the proposed simulation-optimization framework, which uses the present soil moisture and crop evapotranspiration information even without any forecasts. It is found that the values of the forecasts vary across dry, normal, and wet years. More significant economic gains are found in normal and wet years than in dry years under the various forecast horizons. To mitigate drought effect on crop yield through irrigation, medium- or long-term climate predictions likely play a more important role than short-term forecasts. NOAA's imperfect 1-week forecast is still valuable in terms of both profit gain and water saving. Compared with the no-rain forecast case, the short-term imperfect forecasts could lead to additional 2.4-8.5% gain in profit and 11.0-26.9% water saving. However, the performance of the imperfect forecast is only slightly better than the ensemble weather forecast based on historical data and slightly inferior to the perfect forecast. It seems that the 1-week forecast horizon is too limited to evaluate the role of the various forecast scenarios for irrigation scheduling, which is actually a seasonal decision issue. For irrigation scheduling, both the forecast quality and the length of forecast time horizon matter. Thus, longer forecasts might be necessary to evaluate the role

  13. Using NMME in Region-Specific Operational Seasonal Climate Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gronewold, A.; Bolinger, R. A.; Fry, L. M.; Kompoltowicz, K.

    2015-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) provides access to a suite of real-time monthly climate forecasts that comprise the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) in an attempt to meet increasing demands for monthly to seasonal climate prediction. While the graphical map forecasts of the NMME are informative, there is a need to provide decision-makers with probabilistic forecasts specific to their region of interest. Here, we demonstrate the potential application of the NMME to address regional climate projection needs by developing new forecasts of temperature and precipitation for the North American Great Lakes, the largest system of lakes on Earth. Regional opertional water budget forecasts rely on these outlooks to initiate monthly forecasts not only of the water budget, but of monthly lake water levels as well. More specifically, we present an alternative for improving existing operational protocols that currently involve a relatively time-consuming and subjective procedure based on interpreting the maps of the NMME. In addition, all forecasts are currently presented in the NMME in a probabilistic format, with equal weighting given to each member of the ensemble. In our new evolution of this product, we provide historical context for the forecasts by superimposing them (in an on-line graphical user interface) with the historical range of observations. Implementation of this new tool has already led to noticeable advantages in regional water budget forecasting, and has the potential to be transferred to other regional decision-making authorities as well.

  14. Simplified multi-element analysis of ground and instant coffees by ICP-OES and FAAS.

    PubMed

    Szymczycha-Madeja, Anna; Welna, Maja; Pohl, Pawel

    2015-01-01

    A simplified alternative to the wet digestion sample preparation procedure for roasted ground and instant coffees has been developed and validated for the determination of different elements by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES) (Al, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sr, Zn) and flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS) (Ca, Fe, K, Mg, Na). The proposed procedure, i.e. the ultrasound-assisted solubilisation in aqua regia, is quite fast and simple, requires minimal use of reagents, and demonstrated good analytical performance, i.e. accuracy from -4.7% to 1.9%, precision within 0.5-8.6% and recovery in the range 93.5-103%. Detection limits of elements were from 0.086 ng ml(-1) (Sr) to 40 ng ml(-1) (Fe). A preliminary classification of 18 samples of ground and instant coffees was successfully made based on concentrations of selected elements and using principal component analysis and hierarchic cluster analysis.

  15. Factorial design in the optimization of preconcentration procedure for lead determination by FAAS.

    PubMed

    Soylak, Mustafa; Narin, Ibrahim; Bezerra, Marcos de Almeida; Ferreira, Sérgio Luís Costa

    2005-02-28

    The present paper proposes a preconcentration procedure for lead determination using flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS). It is based on lead(II) ions extraction as brilliant cresyl blue (BCB) complex and its sorption onto Diaion HP-2MG, a methacrylic ester copolymer. The optimization step was carried out using factorial design and the variables studied were pH, shaking time and reagent concentration. In the established experimental conditions, lead can be determinate with a limit of detection of 3.7mugL(-1) lead (N = 20) and a relative standard deviation of 7% for a lead concentration of 100mugL(-1). The accuracy was confirmed by analysis of a certified reference material, the stream sediment furnished by National Research Centre for Certified Reference Materials (NRCCRM), China (GBW 07310). Effect of other ions in the procedure proposed was also studied. The method was applied for lead determination in real samples of water, tea, soil and dust. Tests of addition/recovery in the experiments for lead determination in water samples revealed that the proposed procedure could be applied satisfactorily for analysis of these samples. PMID:18969885

  16. Summary of the industry/NASA/FAA workshop on philosophy of automation: Promises and realities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Norman, Susan D.

    1990-01-01

    Issues of flight deck automation are multi-faceted and complex. The rapid introduction of advanced computer based technology on to the flight deck of transport category aircraft has had considerable impact on both aircraft operations and the flight crew. As part of NASA's responsibility to facilitate an active exchange of ideas and information between members of the aviation community, an Industry/NASA/FAA workshop was conducted in August 1988. One of the most important conclusions to emerge from the workshop was that the introduction of automation has clearly benefited aviation and has substantially improved the operational safety and efficiency of our air transport system. For example, one carrier stated that they have been flying the Boeing 767 (one of the first aircraft to employ substantial automation) since 1982, and they have never had an accident or incident resulting in damage to the aircraft. Notwithstanding its benefits, many issues associated with the design, certification, and operation of automated aircraft were identified. For example two key conceptual issues were the need for the crew to have a thorough understanding of the system and the importance of defining the pilot's role. With respect to certification, a fundamental issue is the lack of comprehensive human factors requirements in the current regulations. Operational considerations, which have been a factor in incidents involving automation, were also cited. Viewgraphs used in the presentation are given.

  17. NASA/FAA flight-test investigation of helicopter microwave landing system approaches

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peach, I. L., Jr.; Bull, J. S.; Anderson, D. J.; Dugan, D. C.; Ross, V. L.; Hunting, A. W.; Pate, D. P.; Savage, J. C.

    1980-01-01

    The helicopter Microwave Landing System flight-test investigations, conducted by a joint NASA/FAA effort in order to gather statistical data for establishing terminal instrument procedures criteria, and to provide a performance data base for developing advanced MLS guidance concepts, are presented. The specific flight-test objectives were to: (1) develop acceptable angle-only MLS approach profiles; (2) determine tracking errors; (3) determine altitude loss during missed approach; (4) evaluate guidance display sensitivities; and (5) evaluate pilot acceptability. Fourteen pilots flew 140 manual (without stability augmentation) dual-pilot simulated instrument approaches in a UH-1H helicopter. The flight profiles flown included 3-, 6-, and 9-degree glideslope, centerline approaches to decision heights of 50, 100, and 150 ft, respectively. The angular guidance display sensitivities and the data acquisition system are also described. Eight major conclusions are made, and include the following: (1) the use of pitch attitude to control airspeed and collective to control glideslope was the preferred pilot technique for the steep glideslope approaches, and (2) angular guidance deviation indicator sensitivity requirements for helicopter MLS approaches to STOLports and heliports have been found to be significantly different from standard ILS sensitivities.

  18. Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors using GDAPS (UM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, D.; Kim, J.; Chang, K.; Byun, K.; Lee, J.

    2013-12-01

    After the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) began issuing official five-day tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts in 2003, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) started issuing official five-day forecasts of TCs in May 2012 after 2 year of beta test. Forming a selective consensus (SCON) by proper removal of a likely erroneous track forecast is hypothesized to be more accurate than the non-selective consensus (NCON) of all model tracks that are used for the five-day forecasts. Conceptual models describing large track error mechanisms, which are related to known tropical cyclone motion processes being misrepresented in the dynamical models, are applied to forecasts during the 2012 western North Pacific typhoon season by the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS (UM N512 L70)) which is KMA's main operational model. GDAPS (UM) is one of consensus members used in making KMA's five-day forecasts and thus analysis of its track error tendencies would be useful for forming a SCON forecast. All 72-h track errors greater than 320 km are examined on the basis of the approach developed by Carr and Elsberry (2000a, b). Tropical-influenced error sources caused 37% (47 times / 126 erroneous forecasts) of the GDAPS (UM) large track forecast errors primarily because an incorrect beta effect-related process depicted by the model contributed to the erroneous forecasts. Midlatitude-influenced error sources accounted for 63% (79 times / 126 error cases) in the GDAPS (UM) erroneous forecasts mainly due to an incorrect forecast of the midlatitude system evolutions. It is proposed that KMA will be able to issue more reliable TC track information if a likely model track error is recognized by optimum use of conceptual models by Carr and Elsberry (2000a, b) and a selective consensus track is then the basis for an improved warning.

  19. Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Worrell, Ruben

    2010-01-01

    The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger

  20. Statistical evaluation of forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mader, Malenka; Mader, Wolfgang; Gluckman, Bruce J.; Timmer, Jens; Schelter, Björn

    2014-08-01

    Reliable forecasts of extreme but rare events, such as earthquakes, financial crashes, and epileptic seizures, would render interventions and precautions possible. Therefore, forecasting methods have been developed which intend to raise an alarm if an extreme event is about to occur. In order to statistically validate the performance of a prediction system, it must be compared to the performance of a random predictor, which raises alarms independent of the events. Such a random predictor can be obtained by bootstrapping or analytically. We propose an analytic statistical framework which, in contrast to conventional methods, allows for validating independently the sensitivity and specificity of a forecasting method. Moreover, our method accounts for the periods during which an event has to remain absent or occur after a respective forecast.

  1. Probabilistic river forecast methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelly, Karen Suzanne

    1997-09-01

    The National Weather Service (NWS) operates deterministic conceptual models to predict the hydrologic response of a river basin to precipitation. The output from these models are forecasted hydrographs (time series of the future river stage) at certain locations along a river. In order for the forecasts to be useful for optimal decision making, the uncertainty associated with them must be quantified. A methodology is developed for this purpose that (i) can be implemented with any deterministic hydrologic model, (ii) receives a probabilistic forecast of precipitation as input, (iii) quantifies all sources of uncertainty, (iv) operates in real-time and within computing constraints, and (v) produces probability distributions of future river stages. The Bayesian theory which supports the methodology involves transformation of a distribution of future precipitation into one of future river stage, and statistical characterization of the uncertainty in the hydrologic model. This is accomplished by decomposing total uncertainty into that associated with future precipitation and that associated with the hydrologic transformations. These are processed independently and then integrated into a predictive distribution which constitutes a probabilistic river stage forecast. A variety of models are presented for implementation of the methodology. In the most general model, a probability of exceedance associated with a given future hydrograph specified. In the simplest model, a probability of exceedance associated with a given future river stage is specified. In conjunction with the Ohio River Forecast Center of the NWS, the simplest model is used to demonstrate the feasibility of producing probabilistic river stage forecasts for a river basin located in headwaters. Previous efforts to quantify uncertainty in river forecasting have only considered selected sources of uncertainty, been specific to a particular hydrologic model, or have not obtained an entire probability

  2. An overview of health forecasting.

    PubMed

    Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D

    2013-01-01

    Health forecasting is a novel area of forecasting, and a valuable tool for predicting future health events or situations such as demands for health services and healthcare needs. It facilitates preventive medicine and health care intervention strategies, by pre-informing health service providers to take appropriate mitigating actions to minimize risks and manage demand. Health forecasting requires reliable data, information and appropriate analytical tools for the prediction of specific health conditions or situations. There is no single approach to health forecasting, and so various methods have often been adopted to forecast aggregate or specific health conditions. Meanwhile, there are no defined health forecasting horizons (time frames) to match the choices of health forecasting methods/approaches that are often applied. The key principles of health forecasting have not also been adequately described to guide the process. This paper provides a brief introduction and theoretical analysis of health forecasting. It describes the key issues that are important for health forecasting, including: definitions, principles of health forecasting, and the properties of health data, which influence the choices of health forecasting methods. Other matters related to the value of health forecasting, and the general challenges associated with developing and using health forecasting services are discussed. This overview is a stimulus for further discussions on standardizing health forecasting approaches and methods that will facilitate health care and health services delivery.

  3. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  4. An on-line preconcentration/separation system for the determination of bismuth in environmental samples by FAAS.

    PubMed

    Sahan, Serkan; Saçmaci, Serife; Sahin, Uğur; Ulgen, Ahmet; Kartal, Senol

    2010-03-15

    An on-line preconcentration procedure for the determination of bismuth by flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS) has been described. Lewatit TP-207 chelating resin, including iminodiacetate group, packed in a minicolumn was used as adsorbent material. Bi(III) was sorbed on the chelating resin, from which it could be eluted with 3 mol L(-1) HNO(3) and then introduced directly to the nebulizer-burner system of FAAS. Best preconcentration conditions were established by testing different resin quantities, acidity of sample, types of eluent, sample and eluent solution volumes, adsorption and elution flow rates, and effect of interfering ions. The detection limit of the method was 2.75 microg L(-1) while the relative standard deviation was 3.0% for 0.4 microg mL(-1) Bi(III) concentration. The developed method has been applied successfully to the determination of bismuth in pharmaceutical cream, standard reference materials and various natural water samples with satisfactory results.

  5. Biomimetic FAA-certifiable, artificial muscle structures for commercial aircraft wings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barrett, Ronald M.; Barrett, Cassandra M.

    2014-07-01

    This paper is centered on a new form of adaptive material which functions much in the same way as skeletal muscle tissue, is structurally modeled on plant actuator cells and capable of rapidly expanding or shrinking by as much as an order of magnitude in prescribed directions. Rapid changes of plant cell shape and sizes are often initiated via ion-transport driven fluid migration and resulting turgor pressure variation. Certain plant cellular structures like those in Mimosa pudica (sensitive plant), Albizia julibrissin (Mimosa tree), or Dionaea muscipula (Venus Flytrap) all exhibit actuation physiology which employs such turgor pressure manipulation. The paper begins with dynamic micrographs of a sectioned basal articulation joint from A. julibrissin. These figures show large cellular dimensional changes as the structure undergoes foliage articulation. By mimicking such structures in aircraft flight control mechanisms, extremely lightweight pneumatic control surface actuators can be designed. This paper shows several fundamental layouts of such surfaces with actuator elements made exclusively from FAA-certifiable materials, summarizes their structural mechanics and shows actuator power and energy densities that are higher than nearly all classes of conventional adaptive materials available today. A sample flap structure is shown to possess the ability to change its shape and structural stiffness as its cell pressures are manipulated, which in turn changes the surface lift-curve slope when exposed to airflows. Because the structural stiffness can be altered, it is also shown that the commanded section lift-curve slope can be similarly controlled between 1.2 and 6.2 rad-1. Several aircraft weight reduction principles are also shown to come into play as the need to concentrate loads to pass through point actuators is eliminated. The paper concludes with a summary of interrelated performance and airframe-level improvements including enhanced gust rejection, load

  6. Forecasters of earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maximova, Lyudmila

    1987-07-01

    For the first time Soviet scientists have set up a bioseismological proving ground which will stage a systematic extensive experiment of using birds, ants, mountain rodents including marmots, which can dig holes in the Earth's interior to a depth of 50 meters, for the purpose of earthquake forecasting. Biologists have accumulated extensive experimental data on the impact of various electromagnetic fields, including fields of weak intensity, on living organisms. As far as mammals are concerned, electromagnetic waves with frequencies close to the brain's biorhythms have the strongest effect. How these observations can be used to forecast earthquakes is discussed.

  7. US industrial battery forecast

    SciTech Connect

    Hollingsworth, V. III

    1996-09-01

    Last year was strong year for the US industrial battery market with growth in all segments. Sales of industrial batteries in North America grew 19.2% in 1995, exceeding last year`s forecasted growth rate of 11.6%. The results of the recently completed BCI Membership Survey forecast 1996 sales to be up 10.5%, and to continue to increase at a 10.4% compound annual rate through the year 2000. This year`s survey includes further detail on the stationary battery market with the inclusion of less than 25 Ampere-Hour batteries for the first time.

  8. [Comparative study on trace elements in Elsholtzia bodineri Vaniot. from Honghe by FAAS].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ju-Cheng; Liu, Wei; Yi, Zhong-Zhou; Qiu, Cheng-Shu; Li, Ying; Yan, He-Ping

    2008-11-01

    In the present paper, the authors prepared all the samples by the same method, and optimized the work conditions for flame qtomic absorption spectrometry. FAAS was applied to determine the trace elements, such as Pb, Cr, Cd, Cu, Zn, Hg, Se etc, in Elsholtzia bodineri Vaniot. from Mengzi, Shiping, Mile and Jianshui located in Honghe state. The method is simple, rapid and accurate, and allows simultaneous determination of many elements. The recoveries were in the range of 98.7%-116.4%, and RSD was 0.07%-1.69%. The contents of Pb, Cd and Hg were 53.47, 6.03 and 7.68 microg x g(-1), respectively, in the sample from Jianshui, and were higher than those from other areas. The content of Mn was the highest, and was higher in Mengzi than in other areas, and the average content in the four samples was 913.48 microg x g(-1), which was higher than the content in the soil. Fe is the semi-microelement whose average content in Elsholtzia bodineri Vaniot. from Honghe was 688.46 microg x g(-1), the high-to-low content sequence of Fe in terms of location was Mengzi, Mile, Shiping and Jianshui. The average content of Zn was 116.64 microg x g(-1), and the highest one was from Shiping. But we did not obtain the data of Se in the Elsholtzia bodineri Vaniot. from Honghe state by AAS, and did not detect Hg in samples from Shiping and Mile. The content of the detected elements in Mengzi's sample had the sequence as follows; Mn > Fe > Zn > Pb > Cu > Cr > Cd > Hg>Se, while the sequence was Mn > Fe > Zn > Pb > Cu > Hg > Cd > Cr > Se in the sample of Jianshui, Mn > Fe > Z n >Pb > Cu > Cd > Cr > Hg > Se in Shiping, and Fe > Mn > Zn > Pb > Cu > Cd > Cr > Hg > Se in Mile. The results show that the content of the trace elements is high, especially, Mn, Fe and Zn, in Elsholtzia bodineri Vaniot. in Honghe. Therefore, Elsholtzia bodineri Vaniot., which can be used as drug or beverage, is worth exploitation. PMID:19271521

  9. American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) FEMP Technical Assistance Federal Aviation Administration – Project 209 Control Tower and Support Building Oakland, CA

    SciTech Connect

    Arends, J.; Sandusky, William F.

    2010-03-01

    This report represents findings of a design review team that evaluated construction documents (at the 70% level) and operating specifications for a new control tower and support building that will be build at Oakland, California by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The focus of the review was to identify measures that could be incorporated into the final design and operating specification that would result in additional energy savings for the FAA that would not have otherwise occurred.

  10. American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) FEMP Technical Assistance Federal Aviation Administration Project 209 - Control Tower and Support Building, Las Vegas, NV

    SciTech Connect

    Arends, J.; Sandusky, William F.

    2010-03-31

    This report represents findings of a design review team that evaluated construction documents (at the 70% level) and operating specifications for a new control tower and support building that will be built in Las Vegas, Nevada by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The focus of the review was to identify measures that could be incorporated into the final design and operating specification that would result in additional energy savings for the FAA that would not have otherwise occurred.

  11. Separation of Cr(III) and Cr(VI) using melamine-formaldehyde resin and determination of both species in water by FAAS.

    PubMed

    Demirata, B; Tor, I; Filik, H; Afşar, H

    1996-10-01

    A method is described for the determination of Cr(VI) and total chromium by FAAS. Cr(VI) is separated from Cr(III) by adsorption on melamine-formaldehyde resin. After elution of Cr(VI) with 0.1 mol/l NaAc solution, it is analysed by FAAS. Total chromium is determined by FAAS after conversion of Cr(III) to Cr(VI) by oxidation with hydrogen peroxide, total Cr(VI) is concentrated as above. If the total concentration of chromium is sufficient, the determination can be directly made by FAAS. Cr(III) can then be calculated by subtracting Cr(VI) from the total Cr. This method was successfully applied to the determination of chromium in lake water.

  12. Rapid and sensitive ultrasonic-assisted derivatisation microextraction (UDME) technique for bitter taste-free amino acids (FAA) study by HPLC-FLD.

    PubMed

    Chen, Guang; Li, Jun; Sun, Zhiwei; Zhang, Shijuan; Li, Guoliang; Song, Cuihua; Suo, Yourui; You, Jinmao

    2014-01-15

    Amino acids, as the main contributors to taste, are usually found in relatively high levels in bitter foods. In this work, we focused on seeking a rapid, sensitive and simple method to determine FAA for large batches of micro-samples and to explore the relationship between FAA and bitterness. Overall condition optimisation indicated that the new UDME technique offered higher derivatisation yields and extraction efficiencies than traditional methods. Only 35min was needed in the whole operation process. Very low LLOQ (Lower limit of quantification: 0.21-5.43nmol/L) for FAA in twelve bitter foods was obtained, with which BTT (bitter taste thresholds) and CABT (content of FAA at BTT level) were newly determined. The ratio of CABT to BTT increased with decreasing of BTT. This work provided powerful potential for the high-throughput trace analysis of micro-sample and also a methodology to study the relationship between the chemical constituents and the taste.

  13. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  14. Increased Accuracy in Statistical Seasonal Hurricane Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nateghi, R.; Quiring, S. M.; Guikema, S. D.

    2012-12-01

    Hurricanes are among the costliest and most destructive natural hazards in the U.S. Accurate hurricane forecasts are crucial to optimal preparedness and mitigation decisions in the U.S. where 50 percent of the population lives within 50 miles of the coast. We developed a flexible statistical approach to forecast annual number of hurricanes in the Atlantic region during the hurricane season. Our model is based on the method of Random Forest and captures the complex relationship between hurricane activity and climatic conditions through careful variable selection, model testing and validation. We used the National Hurricane Center's Best Track hurricane data from 1949-2011 and sixty-one candidate climate descriptors to develop our model. The model includes information prior to the hurricane season, i.e., from the last three months of the previous year (Oct. through Dec.) and the first five months of the current year (January through May). Our forecast errors are substantially lower than other leading forecasts such as that of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

  15. Forecasting Credit Hours.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bivin, David; Rooney, Patrick Michael

    1999-01-01

    This study used Tobit analysis to estimate retention probabilities and credit hours at two universities. Tobit was judged as appropriate for this problem because it recognizes the lower bound of zero on credit hours and incorporates this bound into parameter estimates and forecasts. Models are estimated for credit hours in a single year and…

  16. Education Planning: Pupil Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Royal Inst. of Public Administration, Reading (England). Local Government Operational Research Unit.

    This computer-based system of enrollment projection predicts up to seven years ahead the number of school children of each age and sex who will be in school. The main distinguishing feature of the system is the ability to detect well in advance small changes in the geographical distribution of children. Forecasts are made for zones that will yield…

  17. Federal Forecasters Directory, 1995.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Center for Education Statistics (ED), Washington, DC.

    This directory lists employees of the federal government who are involved in forecasting for policy formation and trend prediction purposes. Job title, agency, business address, phone or e-mail number, and specialty areas are listed for each employee. Employees are listed for the following agencies: (1) Bureau of the Census; (2) Bureau of Economic…

  18. External Environmental Forecast.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lapin, Joel D.

    Representing current viewpoints of academics, futures experts, and social observers, this external environmental forecast presents projections and information of particular relevance to the future of Catonsville Community College. The following topics are examined: (1) population changes and implications for higher education; (2) state and local…

  19. Evolving forecasting classifications and applications in health forecasting

    PubMed Central

    Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D

    2012-01-01

    Health forecasting forewarns the health community about future health situations and disease episodes so that health systems can better allocate resources and manage demand. The tools used for developing and measuring the accuracy and validity of health forecasts commonly are not defined although they are usually adapted forms of statistical procedures. This review identifies previous typologies used in classifying the forecasting methods commonly used in forecasting health conditions or situations. It then discusses the strengths and weaknesses of these methods and presents the choices available for measuring the accuracy of health-forecasting models, including a note on the discrepancies in the modes of validation. PMID:22615533

  20. Against all odds -- Probabilistic forecasts and decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liechti, Katharina; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2015-04-01

    In the city of Zurich (Switzerland) the setting is such that the damage potential due to flooding of the river Sihl is estimated to about 5 billion US dollars. The flood forecasting system that is used by the administration for decision making runs continuously since 2007. It has a time horizon of max. five days and operates at hourly time steps. The flood forecasting system includes three different model chains. Two of those are run by the deterministic NWP models COSMO-2 and COSMO-7 and one is driven by the probabilistic NWP COSMO-Leps. The model chains are consistent since February 2010, so five full years are available for the evaluation for the system. The system was evaluated continuously and is a very nice example to present the added value that lies in probabilistic forecasts. The forecasts are available on an online-platform to the decision makers. Several graphical representations of the forecasts and forecast-history are available to support decision making and to rate the current situation. The communication between forecasters and decision-makers is quite close. To put it short, an ideal situation. However, an event or better put a non-event in summer 2014 showed that the knowledge about the general superiority of probabilistic forecasts doesn't necessarily mean that the decisions taken in a specific situation will be based on that probabilistic forecast. Some years of experience allow gaining confidence in the system, both for the forecasters and for the decision-makers. Even if from the theoretical point of view the handling during crisis situation is well designed, a first event demonstrated that the dialog with the decision-makers still lacks of exercise during such situations. We argue, that a false alarm is a needed experience to consolidate real-time emergency procedures relying on ensemble predictions. A missed event would probably also fit, but, in our case, we are very happy not to report about this option.

  1. Short-Termed Integrated Forecasting System: 1993 Model documentation report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-05-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth. A low world oil price and high economic growth. A high world oil price and low economic growth. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

  2. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy.

  3. The forecaster's added value

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turco, M.; Milelli, M.

    2009-09-01

    To the authors' knowledge there are relatively few studies that try to answer this topic: "Are humans able to add value to computer-generated forecasts and warnings ?". Moreover, the answers are not always positive. In particular some postprocessing method is competitive or superior to human forecast (see for instance Baars et al., 2005, Charba et al., 2002, Doswell C., 2003, Roebber et al., 1996, Sanders F., 1986). Within the alert system of ARPA Piemonte it is possible to study in an objective manner if the human forecaster is able to add value with respect to computer-generated forecasts. Every day the meteorology group of the Centro Funzionale of Regione Piemonte produces the HQPF (Human QPF) in terms of an areal average for each of the 13 regional warning areas, which have been created according to meteo-hydrological criteria. This allows the decision makers to produce an evaluation of the expected effects by comparing these HQPFs with predefined rainfall thresholds. Another important ingredient in this study is the very dense non-GTS network of rain gauges available that makes possible a high resolution verification. In this context the most useful verification approach is the measure of the QPF and HQPF skills by first converting precipitation expressed as continuous amounts into ‘‘exceedance'' categories (yes-no statements indicating whether precipitation equals or exceeds selected thresholds) and then computing the performances for each threshold. In particular in this work we compare the performances of the latest three years of QPF derived from two meteorological models COSMO-I7 (the Italian version of the COSMO Model, a mesoscale model developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium) and IFS (the ECMWF global model) with the HQPF. In this analysis it is possible to introduce the hypothesis test developed by Hamill (1999), in which a confidence interval is calculated with the bootstrap method in order to establish the real difference between the

  4. Forecasting Infectious Disease Outbreaks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaman, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    Dynamic models of infectious disease systems abound and are used to study the epidemiological characteristics of disease outbreaks, the ecological mechanisms affecting transmission, and the suitability of various control and intervention strategies. The dynamics of disease transmission are non-linear and consequently difficult to forecast. Here, we describe combined model-inference frameworks developed for the prediction of infectious diseases. We show that accurate and reliable predictions of seasonal influenza outbreaks can be made using a mathematical model representing population-level influenza transmission dynamics that has been recursively optimized using ensemble data assimilation techniques and real-time estimates of influenza incidence. Operational real-time forecasts of influenza and other infectious diseases have been and are currently being generated.

  5. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy. PMID:26081307

  6. Technology 2005 : Reviews & Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kimura, Ken

    Nine Technical Committees (TC's) of the Fundamentals and Materials Society of IEE Japan have contributed their Review & Forecast articles to the present. Special Issue of the IEEJ Transaction on Fundamentals and Materials. So you can survey the state-of-the-art of the 9 different technical fields with these articles. The series of reviews were submitted in reply to the request by experts in the respective fields.

  7. Satellite freeze forecast system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martsolf, J. D. (Principal Investigator)

    1983-01-01

    Provisions for back-up operations for the satellite freeze forecast system are discussed including software and hardware maintenance and DS/1000-1V linkage; troubleshooting; and digitized radar usage. The documentation developed; dissemination of data products via television and the IFAS computer network; data base management; predictive models; the installation of and progress towards the operational status of key stations; and digital data acquisition are also considered. The d addition of dew point temperature into the P-model is outlined.

  8. Frost Forecasting for Fruitgrowers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martsolf, J. D.; Chen, E.

    1983-01-01

    Progress in forecasting from satellite data reviewed. University study found data from satellites displayed in color and used to predict frost are valuable aid to agriculture. Study evaluated scheme to use Earth-temperature data from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite in computer model that determines when and where freezing temperatures endanger developing fruit crops, such as apples, peaches and cherries in spring and citrus crops in winter.

  9. The Practice of Manpower Forecasting: A Collection of Case Studies. Studies on Education; Vol. 1.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ahamad, Bashir; And Others

    In the 1960's academics, politicians, administrators and industrialists became convinced of the importance of education for economic development. The forecasting of qualified manpower needs was able to turn this new idea into practice. During the decade hundreds of manpower forecasts were made, and innumerable international conferenceses were held…

  10. Land-Breeze Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Wheeler, Mark M.; Merceret, Francis J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The nocturnal land breeze at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) is both operationally significant and challenging to forecast. The occurrence and timing of land breezes impact low-level winds, atmospheric stability, low temperatures, and fog development. Accurate predictions of the land breeze are critical for toxic material dispersion forecasts associated with space launch missions, since wind direction and low-level stability can change noticeably with the onset of a land breeze. This report presents a seven-year observational study of land breezes over east-central Florida from 1995 to 2001. This comprehensive analysis was enabled by the high-resolution tower observations over KSC/CCAFS. Five-minute observations of winds, temperature, and moisture along with 9 15-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler data were used to analyze specific land-breeze cases, while the tower data were used to construct a composite climatology. Utilities derived from this climatology were developed to assist forecasters in determining the land-breeze occurrence, timing, and movement based on predicted meteorological conditions.

  11. Global crop forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Macdonald, R. B.; Hall, F. G.

    1980-01-01

    The needs for and remote sensing means of global crop forecasting are discussed, and key results of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) are presented. Current crop production estimates provided by foreign countries are shown often to be inadequate, and the basic elements of crop production forecasts are reviewed. The LACIE project is introduced as a proof-of-concept experiment designed to assimilate remote sensing technology, monitor global wheat production, evaluate key technical problems, modify the technique accordingly and demonstrate the feasibility of a global agricultural monitoring system. The global meteorological data, sampling and aggregation techniques, Landsat data analysis procedures and yield forecast procedures used in the experiment are outlined. Accuracy assessment procedures employed to evaluate LACIE technology performance are presented, and improvements in system efficiency and capacity during the three years of operation are pointed out. Results of LACIE estimates of Soviet, U.S. and Canadian wheat production are presented which demonstrate the feasibility and accuracy of the remote-sensing approach for global food and fiber monitoring.

  12. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  13. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    PubMed Central

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and Objectives With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States’ pharmaceutical budgets. This model took into account population ageing, as well as current and future country-specific pricing, reimbursement, and market access policies (the project was performed for the European Commission; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). Method In order to have a representative heterogeneity of EU Member States, the following countries were selected for the analysis: France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. A forecasting period of 5 years (2012–2016) was chosen to assess the net pharmaceutical budget impact. A model for generics and biosimilars was developed for each country. The model estimated a separate and combined effect of the direct and indirect impacts of the patent cliff. A second model, estimating the sales development and the risk of development failure, was developed for new drugs. New drugs were reviewed individually to assess their clinical potential and translate it into commercial potential. The forecast was carried out according to three perspectives (healthcare public payer, society, and manufacturer), and several types of distribution chains (retail, hospital, and combined retail and hospital). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. Results According to the model, all countries experienced drug budget reductions except Poland (+€41 million). Savings were expected to be the highest in the United Kingdom (−€9,367 million), France

  14. Results from FAA program to validate bonded composite doublers for commercial aviation use

    SciTech Connect

    Roach, D.P.

    1997-09-01

    The number of commercial airframes exceeding twenty years of service continues to grow. In addition, Service Life Extension Programs are attempting to extend the {open_quotes}economic{close_quotes} service life of commercial airframes to thirty years. The use of bonded composites may offer the airframe manufacturers and aircraft maintenance facilities a cost effective method to extend the lives of their aircraft. The Federal Aviation Administration Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) to validate the use of bonded composite doublers on commercial aircraft.

  15. Hydrological Forecasting Practices in Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Fernando; Paiva, Rodrigo; Collischonn, Walter; Ramos, Maria-Helena

    2016-04-01

    This work brings a review on current hydrological and flood forecasting practices in Brazil, including the main forecasts applications, the different kinds of techniques that are currently being employed and the institutions involved on forecasts generation. A brief overview of Brazil is provided, including aspects related to its geography, climate, hydrology and flood hazards. A general discussion about the Brazilian practices on hydrological short and medium range forecasting is presented. Detailed examples of some hydrological forecasting systems that are operational or in a research/pre-operational phase using the large scale hydrological model MGB-IPH are also presented. Finally, some suggestions are given about how the forecasting practices in Brazil can be understood nowadays, and what are the perspectives for the future.

  16. AN OPERATIONAL EVALUATION OF THE ETA - CMAQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in partnership with the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), are developing an operational, nationwide Air Quality Forecasting (AQF) system. An experimental phase of this program, which couples NOAA's Et...

  17. Discovering the Regulatory Considerations of the Federal Aviation Administration: Interviewing the Aviation Rulemaking Advisory Committee

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lu, Chien-tsung

    2005-01-01

    Maintenance Resource Management (MRM) training for aviation mechanics has become mandatory in many industrialized countries since 1998. Yet, to date, MRM training remains optional in the U.S. Interestingly, a similar safety discipline, namely Crew/Cockpit Resource Management (CRM), is mandatory for pilots, flight engineers, flight attendants, and dispatchers and is regulated in the Federal Aviation Administration s (FAA) Federal Aviation Regulations (FARs). If MRM training is important to enhance aviation technicians working behavior, the rationale to not regulate it opens a window for study. This research aims to inductively investigate the FAA s regulatory rationale concerning MRM training based on direct inputs from the FAA s Aviation Rulemaking Advisory Committee (ARAC) members. Delphi methodology associated with purposive sampling technique was adopted. The result revealed that the FAA cannot regulate MRM because the aviation industry is strongly opposed to it due to the lack of training budgets, the need of a quantifiable cost-effect analysis, concern over the FAA s inspection workforce, an ongoing voluntary alternative called the Air Transportation Surveillance System (ATOS), the government s lower priority on maintenance after 9/11, and the airlines tight embracement of operational flexibility without regulation.

  18. Forecasting droughts in East Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mwangi, E.; Wetterhall, F.; Dutra, E.; Di Giuseppe, F.; Pappenberger, F.

    2014-02-01

    The humanitarian crises caused by the recent droughts (2008-2009 and 2010-2011) in East Africa have illustrated that the ability to make accurate drought forecasts with sufficient lead time is essential. The use of dynamical model precipitation forecasts in combination with drought indices, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), can potentially lead to a better description of drought duration, magnitude and spatial extent. This study evaluates the use of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) products in forecasting droughts in East Africa. ECMWF seasonal precipitation shows significant skill for March-May and October-December rain seasons when evaluated against measurements from the available in situ stations from East Africa. The forecast for October-December rain season has higher skill than for the March-May season. ECMWF forecasts add value to the consensus forecasts produced during the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF), which is the present operational product for precipitation forecast over East Africa. Complementing the original ECMWF precipitation forecasts with SPI provides additional information on the spatial extent and intensity of the drought event.

  19. Hydrologic Forecasting and Hydropower Production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wigmosta, M. S.; Voisin, N.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Coleman, A.; Mishra, V.; Schaner, N. A.

    2011-12-01

    Hydroelectric power production is one of many competing demands for available water along with other priority uses such as irrigation, thermoelectric cooling, municipal, recreation, and environmental performance. Increasingly, hydroelectric generation is being used to offset the intermittent nature of some renewable energy sources such as wind-generated power. An accurate forecast of the magnitude and timing of water supply assists managers in integrated planning and operations to balance competing water uses against current and future supply while protecting against the possibility of water or energy shortages and excesses with real-time actions. We present a medium-range to seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasting system where uncertainty in forecasts is addressed explicitly. The integrated forecast system makes use of remotely-sensed data and automated spatial and temporal data assimilation. Remotely-sensed snow cover, observed snow water equivalent, and observed streamflow data are used to update the hydrologic model state prior to the forecast. In forecast mode, the hydrology model is forced by calibrated ensemble weather/climate forecasts. This system will be fully integrated into a water optimization toolset to inform reservoir and power operations, and guide environmental performance decision making. This flow forecast system development is carried out in agreement with the National Weather Service so that the system can later be incorporated into the NOAA eXperimental Ensemble Forecast Service (XEFS).

  20. Solar Indices Forecasting Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henney, Carl John; Shurkin, Kathleen; Arge, Charles; Hill, Frank

    2016-05-01

    Progress to forecast key space weather parameters using SIFT (Solar Indices Forecasting Tool) with the ADAPT (Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport) model is highlighted in this presentation. Using a magnetic flux transport model, ADAPT, we estimate the solar near-side field distribution that is used as input into empirical models for predicting F10.7(solar 10.7 cm, 2.8 GHz, radio flux), the Mg II core-to-wing ratio, and selected bands of solar far ultraviolet (FUV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance. Input to the ADAPT model includes the inferred photospheric magnetic field from the NISP ground-based instruments, GONG & VSM. Besides a status update regarding ADAPT and SIFT models, we will summarize the findings that: 1) the sum of the absolute value of strong magnetic fields, associated with sunspots, is shown to correlate well with the observed daily F10.7 variability (Henney et al. 2012); and 2) the sum of the absolute value of weak magnetic fields, associated with plage regions, is shown to correlate well with EUV and FUV irradiance variability (Henney et al. 2015). This work utilizes data produced collaboratively between Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) and the National Solar Observatory (NSO). The ADAPT model development is supported by AFRL. The input data utilized by ADAPT is obtained by NISP (NSO Integrated Synoptic Program). NSO is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy (AURA), Inc., under a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation (NSF). The 10.7 cm solar radio flux data service, utilized by the ADAPT/SIFT F10.7 forecasting model, is operated by the National Research Council of Canada and National Resources Canada, with the support of the Canadian Space Agency.

  1. Forecasting Urban Expansion Based on Night Lights

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stathakis, D.

    2016-06-01

    Forecasting urban expansion models are a very powerful tool in the hands of urban planners in order to anticipate and mitigate future urbanization pressures. In this paper, a linear regression forecasting urban expansion model is implemented based on the annual composite night lights time series available from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The product known as 'stable lights' is used in particular, after it has been corrected with a standard intercalibration process to reduce artificial year-to-year fluctuations as much as possible. Forecasting is done for ten years after the end of the time series. Because the method is spatially explicit the predicted expansion trends are relatively accurately mapped. Two metrics are used to validate the process. The first one is the year-to-year Sum of Lights (SoL) variation. The second is the year-to-year image correlation coefficient. Overall it is evident that the method is able to provide an insight on future urbanization pressures in order to be taken into account in planning. The trends are quantified in a clear spatial manner.

  2. Weather Forecasting Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    Weather forecasters are usually very precise in reporting such conditions as temperature, wind velocity and humidity. They also provide exact information on barometric pressure at a given moment, and whether the barometer is "rising" or "falling"- but not how rapidly or how slowly it is rising or falling. Until now, there has not been available an instrument which measures precisely the current rate of change of barometric pressure. A meteorological instrument called a barograph traces the historical ups and downs of barometric pressure and plots a rising or falling curve, but, updated every three hours, it is only momentarily accurate at each updating.

  3. Forecast Mekong: 2011 update

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Turnipseed, D. Phil

    2011-01-01

    In 2009, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton joined with the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam in launching the Lower Mekong Initiative to enhance U.S. engagement with the Lower Mekong countries in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. Part of the Lower Mekong Initiative, the U.S. Geological Survey's Forecast Mekong project is engaging the United States in scientific research relevant to environmental issues in the Lower Mekong River countries and is staying the course in support of the Mekong Nations with a suite of new projects for 2011.

  4. Forecasting in Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Complex nonlinear systems are typically characterized by many degrees of freedom, as well as interactions between the elements. Interesting examples can be found in the areas of earthquakes and finance. In these two systems, fat tails play an important role in the statistical dynamics. For earthquake systems, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency is applicable, whereas for daily returns for the securities in the financial markets are known to be characterized by leptokurtotic statistics in which the tails are power law. Very large fluctuations are present in both systems. In earthquake systems, one has the example of great earthquakes such as the M9.1, March 11, 2011 Tohoku event. In financial systems, one has the example of the market crash of October 19, 1987. Both were largely unexpected events that severely impacted the earth and financial systems systemically. Other examples include the M9.3 Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, and the Great Recession which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 12, 2013. Forecasting the occurrence of these damaging events has great societal importance. In recent years, national funding agencies in a variety of countries have emphasized the importance of societal relevance in research, and in particular, the goal of improved forecasting technology. Previous work has shown that both earthquakes and financial crashes can be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model. These metastable systems are characterized by fat tail statistics near the classical spinodal. Correlations in these systems can grow and recede, but do not imply causation, a common source of misunderstanding. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In this talk, we describe the basic phenomenology of these systems and emphasize their similarities and differences. We also consider the problem of forecast validation and verification

  5. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  6. Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

    1993-01-01

    The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

  7. Optimization of Ultrasound-Assisted Extraction of Cr, Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb from Sediment, Followed by FAAS and GFAAS Analysis.

    PubMed

    Mimura, Aparecida M S; Oliveira, Marcone A L; Ciminelli, Virginia S T; Silva, Julio C J

    2016-01-01

    An ultrasound method for simultaneous extraction of Cr, Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb from sediment, and determination by flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS) and graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (GFAAS) was proposed. The experimental results obtained using analytical curves and the method of standard additions agreed at a confidence level of 95% for all the analytes, as determined by FAAS and GFAAS, indicating no significant matrix effects. Recoveries ranged from 80.1 to 93.7% (certified reference material) and from 89 to 107% (spike tests). The LOD and LOQ results from the method were consistent with the techniques used (FAAS and GFAAS), with high analytical throughput. The proposed method was then used to determine Cr, Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb in river sediment samples from Rio Doce, Minas Gerais, Brazil. The results indicated levels below those permitted by Brazilian legislation for all the analytes, with the exception of Cr. PMID:26851077

  8. FirstAidAssistanceSystem (FAAS): improvement of first aid measures using Car2Car-communication technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tuchscheerer, Sven; Hoppe, Tobias; Krätzer, Christian; Dittmann, Jana

    2011-01-01

    This work's goal is the enhancement of first aid measures directly after car accidents by calling suited first aiders via Car-to-Car (C2C) communication and to assist them providing detailed multimedia support instructions. Our concept combines upcoming C2C communication technologies with established technology, in particular GPS and GSM. After a collision, the proposed FirstAidAssistanceSystem (FAAS) sends a broadcast message using C2C technology according to the IEEE 802.11p standard. All nearby cars (as potential first aiders) are located and at least one nearest candidate (we suggest 3-5) driving towards the accident scene is chosen and notified as first aider. A support guide on his multipurpose display (e.g. the navigation system) provides first aiders with detailed instructions and illustrative tutorials. The paper presents our concept in detail with a discussion of practical evaluation criteria and an introduction of a first test implementation.

  9. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  10. The pioneers of weather forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballard, Susan

    2016-01-01

    In The Weather Experiment author Peter Moore takes us on a compelling journey through the early history of weather forecasting, bringing to life the personalities, lives and achievements of the men who put in place the building blocks required for forecasts to be possible.

  11. Weather Forecasting Systems and Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mecikalski, John (Inventor); MacKenzie, Wayne M., Jr. (Inventor); Walker, John Robert (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    A weather forecasting system has weather forecasting logic that receives raw image data from a satellite. The raw image data has values indicative of light and radiance data from the Earth as measured by the satellite, and the weather forecasting logic processes such data to identify cumulus clouds within the satellite images. For each identified cumulus cloud, the weather forecasting logic applies interest field tests to determine a score indicating the likelihood of the cumulus cloud forming precipitation and/or lightning in the future within a certain time period. Based on such scores, the weather forecasting logic predicts in which geographic regions the identified cumulus clouds will produce precipitation and/or lighting within during the time period. Such predictions may then be used to provide a weather map thereby providing users with a graphical illustration of the areas predicted to be affected by precipitation within the time period.

  12. Verification of Meteorological and Oceanographic Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. Navy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klotz, S.; Hansen, J.; Pauley, P.; Sestak, M.; Wittmann, P.; Skupniewicz, C.; Nelson, G.

    2013-12-01

    The Navy Ensemble Forecast Verification System (NEFVS) has been promoted recently to operational status at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). NEFVS processes FNMOC and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological and ocean wave ensemble forecasts, gridded forecast analyses, and innovation (observational) data output by FNMOC's data assimilation system. The NEFVS framework consists of statistical analysis routines, a variety of pre- and post-processing scripts to manage data and plot verification metrics, and a master script to control application workflow. NEFVS computes metrics that include forecast bias, mean-squared error, conditional error, conditional rank probability score, and Brier score. The system also generates reliability and Receiver Operating Characteristic diagrams. In this presentation we describe the operational framework of NEFVS and show examples of verification products computed from ensemble forecasts, meteorological observations, and forecast analyses. The construction and deployment of NEFVS addresses important operational and scientific requirements within Navy Meteorology and Oceanography. These include computational capabilities for assessing the reliability and accuracy of meteorological and ocean wave forecasts in an operational environment, for quantifying effects of changes and potential improvements to the Navy's forecast models, and for comparing the skill of forecasts from different forecast systems. NEFVS also supports the Navy's collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, NCEP, and Environment Canada in the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) project and with the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) program. This program is tasked with eliminating unnecessary duplication within the three agencies, accelerating the transition of new technology, such as multi

  13. Verification of Meteorological and Oceanographic Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. Navy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klotz, S. P.; Hansen, J.; Pauley, P.; Sestak, M.; Wittmann, P.; Skupniewicz, C.; Nelson, G.

    2012-12-01

    The Navy Ensemble Forecast Verification System (NEFVS) has been promoted recently to operational status at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). NEFVS processes FNMOC and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological and ocean wave ensemble forecasts, gridded forecast analyses, and innovation (observational) data output by FNMOC's data assimilation system. The NEFVS framework consists of statistical analysis routines, a variety of pre- and post-processing scripts to manage data and plot verification metrics, and a master script to control application workflow. NEFVS computes metrics that include forecast bias, mean-squared error, conditional error, conditional rank probability score, and Brier score. The system also generates reliability and Receiver Operating Characteristic diagrams. In this presentation we describe the operational framework of NEFVS and show examples of verification products computed from ensemble forecasts, meteorological observations, and forecast analyses. The construction and deployment of NEFVS addresses important operational and scientific requirements within Navy Meteorology and Oceanography (METOC). These include computational capabilities for assessing the reliability and accuracy of meteorological and ocean wave forecasts in an operational environment, for quantifying effects of changes and potential improvements to the Navy's forecast models, and for comparing the skill of forecasts from different forecast systems. NEFVS also supports the Navy's collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, NCEP, and Environment Canada in the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) project and with the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) program. This program is tasked with eliminating unnecessary duplication within the three agencies, accelerating the transition of new technology, such as

  14. Reliable probabilistic forecasts from an ensemble reservoir inflow forecasting system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bourdin, Dominique R.; Nipen, Thomas N.; Stull, Roland B.

    2014-04-01

    This paper describes a probabilistic reservoir inflow forecasting system that explicitly attempts to sample from major sources of uncertainty in the modeling chain. Uncertainty in hydrologic forecasts arises due to errors in the hydrologic models themselves, their parameterizations, and in the initial and boundary conditions (e.g., meteorological observations or forecasts) used to drive the forecasts. The Member-to-Member (M2M) ensemble presented herein uses individual members of a numerical weather model ensemble to drive two different distributed hydrologic models, each of which is calibrated using three different objective functions. An ensemble of deterministic hydrologic states is generated by spinning up the daily simulated state using each model and parameterization. To produce probabilistic forecasts, uncertainty models are used to fit probability distribution functions (PDF) to the bias-corrected ensemble. The parameters of the distribution are estimated based on statistical properties of the ensemble and past verifying observations. The uncertainty model is able to produce reliable probability forecasts by matching the shape of the PDF to the shape of the empirical distribution of forecast errors. This shape is found to vary seasonally in the case-study watershed. We present an "intelligent" adaptation to a Probability Integral Transform (PIT)-based probability calibration scheme that relabels raw cumulative probabilities into calibrated cumulative probabilities based on recent past forecast performance. As expected, the intelligent scheme, which applies calibration corrections only when probability forecasts are deemed sufficiently unreliable, improves reliability without the inflation of ignorance exhibited in certain cases by the original PIT-based scheme.

  15. Forecasting Higher Education's Future.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boyken, Don; Buck, Tina S.; Kollie, Ellen; Przyborowski, Danielle; Rondinelli, Joseph A.; Hunter, Jeff; Hanna, Jeff

    2003-01-01

    Offers predictions on trends in higher education to accommodate changing needs, lower budgets, and increased enrollment. They involve campus construction, security, administration, technology, interior design, athletics, and transportation. (EV)

  16. Forecasting droughts in East Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mwangi, Emmah; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Dutra, Emanuel; Di Giuseppe, Francesca; Pappenberger, Florian

    2014-05-01

    The humanitarian crisis caused by the recent droughts (2008-2009 and 2010-2011) in East Africa have illustrated that the ability to make accurate drought predictions with sufficient lead time is essential. The use of dynamical model forecasts in combination with drought indices, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), can potentially to lead to a better description of drought duration, magnitude and spatial extent. This study evaluates the use of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) products in forecasting droughts in East Africa. ECMWF seasonal precipitation shows significant skill for both rain seasons when evaluated against measurements from the available in-situ stations from East Africa. The forecast for October-December rain season has higher skill than for the March-May season. ECMWF forecasts add value to the statistical forecasts produced during the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forums (GHACOF), which is the present operational product. Complementing the raw precipitation forecasts with SPI provides additional information on the spatial extent and intensity of the drought event.

  17. Atmospheric composition forecasting in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menut, L.; Bessagnet, B.

    2010-01-01

    The atmospheric composition is a societal issue and, following new European directives, its forecast is now recommended to quantify the air quality. It concerns both gaseous and particles species, identified as potential problems for health. In Europe, numerical systems providing daily air quality forecasts are numerous and, mostly, operated by universities. Following recent European research projects (GEMS, PROMOTE), an organization of the air quality forecast is currently under development. But for the moment, many platforms exist, each of them with strengths and weaknesses. This overview paper presents all existing systems in Europe and try to identify the main remaining gaps in the air quality forecast knowledge. As modeling systems are now able to reasonably forecast gaseous species, and in a lesser extent aerosols, the future directions would concern the use of these systems with ensemble approaches and satellite data assimilation. If numerous improvements were recently done on emissions and chemistry knowledge, improvements are still needed especially concerning meteorology, which remains a weak point of forecast systems. Future directions will also concern the use of these forecast tools to better understand and quantify the air pollution impact on health.

  18. Attitudes on En Route Air Traffic Control Training and Work: A Comparison of Recruits Initially Trained at the FAA Academy and Recruits Initially Trained at Assigned Centers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mathews, John J.; And Others

    In the comparison, questionnaires concerning aspects of training-related and work-related attitudes were sent to 225 Air Traffic Control (ATC) trainees who represented groups of attritions and retentions in two En Route training programs; viz, programs that provided basic training at the FAA Academy and programs that provided basic training at the…

  19. 41 CFR 102-33.230 - May we use military FSCAP on non-military FAA-type certificated Government aircraft?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false May we use military FSCAP on non-military FAA-type certificated Government aircraft? 102-33.230 Section 102-33.230 Public... Aircraft Parts Managing Aircraft Parts § 102-33.230 May we use military FSCAP on non-military...

  20. 41 CFR 102-33.230 - May we use military FSCAP on non-military FAA-type certificated Government aircraft?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false May we use military FSCAP on non-military FAA-type certificated Government aircraft? 102-33.230 Section 102-33.230 Public... Aircraft Parts Managing Aircraft Parts § 102-33.230 May we use military FSCAP on non-military...

  1. Determination of Fe Content of Some Food Items by Flame Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy (FAAS): A Guided-Inquiry Learning Experience in Instrumental Analysis Laboratory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fakayode, Sayo O.; King, Angela G.; Yakubu, Mamudu; Mohammed, Abdul K.; Pollard, David A.

    2012-01-01

    This article presents a guided-inquiry (GI) hands-on determination of Fe in food samples including plantains, spinach, lima beans, oatmeal, Frosted Flakes cereal (generic), tilapia fish, and chicken using flame atomic absorption spectroscopy (FAAS). The utility of the GI experiment, which is part of an instrumental analysis laboratory course,…

  2. A Scenario Generation Method for Wind Power Ramp Events Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Cui, Ming-Jian; Ke, De-Ping; Sun, Yuan-Zhang; Gan, Di; Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2015-07-03

    Wind power ramp events (WPREs) have received increasing attention in recent years due to their significant impact on the reliability of power grid operations. In this paper, a novel WPRE forecasting method is proposed which is able to estimate the probability distributions of three important properties of the WPREs. To do so, a neural network (NN) is first proposed to model the wind power generation (WPG) as a stochastic process so that a number of scenarios of the future WPG can be generated (or predicted). Each possible scenario of the future WPG generated in this manner contains the ramping information, and the distributions of the designated WPRE properties can be stochastically derived based on the possible scenarios. Actual data from a wind power plant in the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) was selected for testing the proposed ramp forecasting method. Results showed that the proposed method effectively forecasted the probability of ramp events.

  3. A Method for Forecasting the Commercial Air Traffic Schedule in the Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Long, Dou; Lee, David; Gaier, Eric; Johnson, Jesse; Kostiuk, Peter

    1999-01-01

    This report presents an integrated set of models that forecasts air carriers' future operations when delays due to limited terminal-area capacity are considered. This report models the industry as a whole, avoiding unnecessary details of competition among the carriers. To develop the schedule outputs, we first present a model to forecast the unconstrained flight schedules in the future, based on the assumption of rational behavior of the carriers. Then we develop a method to modify the unconstrained schedules, accounting for effects of congestion due to limited NAS capacities. Our underlying assumption is that carriers will modify their operations to keep mean delays within certain limits. We estimate values for those limits from changes in planned block times reflected in the OAG. Our method for modifying schedules takes many means of reducing the delays into considerations, albeit some of them indirectly. The direct actions include depeaking, operating in off-hours, and reducing hub airports'operations. Indirect actions include using secondary airports, using larger aircraft, and selecting new hub airports, which, we assume, have already been modeled in the FAA's TAF. Users of our suite of models can substitute an alternative forecast for the TAF.

  4. Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning: Summary report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keitz, J. F.

    1982-01-01

    The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This summary report discusses the results of each of the four major tasks of the study. Task 1 compared airline flight plans based on operational forecasts to plans based on the verifying analyses and found that average fuel savings of 1.2 to 2.5 percent are possible with improved forecasts. Task 2 consisted of similar comparisons but used a model developed for the FAA by SRI International that simulated the impact of ATc diversions on the flight plans. While parts of Task 2 confirm the Task I findings, inconsistency with other data and the known impact of ATC suggests that other Task 2 findings are the result of errors in the model. Task 3 compares segment weather data from operational flight plans with the weather actually observed by the aircraft and finds the average error could result in fuel burn penalties (or savings) of up to 3.6 percent for the average 8747 flight. In Task 4 an in-depth analysis of the weather forecast for the 33 days included in the study finds that significant errors exist on 15 days. Wind speeds in the area of maximum winds are underestimated by 20 to 50 kts., a finding confirmed in the other three tasks.

  5. Characterizing the uncertainty in river stage forecasts conditional on point forecast values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Jun; Liao, Gong-Yi; Gebremichael, Mekonnen; Shedd, Robert; Vallee, David R.

    2012-12-01

    Uncertainty information about river level forecast is as important as the forecast itself for forecast users. This paper presents a flexible, statistical approach that processes deterministic forecasts into probabilistic forecasts. The model is a smoothly changing conditional distribution of river stage given point forecast and other information available, such as lagged river level at the time of forecasting. The parametric distribution is a four-parameter skewt distribution, with each parameter modeled as a smooth function of the point forecast and the 1 day ago observed river level. The model was applied to 9 years of daily 6 h lead forecasts and 24 h lead forecasts in the warm season and their matching observations at the Plymouth station on the Pemigewasset River in New Hampshire. For each point forecast, the conditional distribution and resulting prediction intervals provide uncertainty information that are potentially very important to forecast users and algorithm developers in decision making and improvement of forecast quality.

  6. Time series modelling and forecasting of emergency department overcrowding.

    PubMed

    Kadri, Farid; Harrou, Fouzi; Chaabane, Sondès; Tahon, Christian

    2014-09-01

    Efficient management of patient flow (demand) in emergency departments (EDs) has become an urgent issue for many hospital administrations. Today, more and more attention is being paid to hospital management systems to optimally manage patient flow and to improve management strategies, efficiency and safety in such establishments. To this end, EDs require significant human and material resources, but unfortunately these are limited. Within such a framework, the ability to accurately forecast demand in emergency departments has considerable implications for hospitals to improve resource allocation and strategic planning. The aim of this study was to develop models for forecasting daily attendances at the hospital emergency department in Lille, France. The study demonstrates how time-series analysis can be used to forecast, at least in the short term, demand for emergency services in a hospital emergency department. The forecasts were based on daily patient attendances at the paediatric emergency department in Lille regional hospital centre, France, from January 2012 to December 2012. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method was applied separately to each of the two GEMSA categories and total patient attendances. Time-series analysis was shown to provide a useful, readily available tool for forecasting emergency department demand. PMID:25053208

  7. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  8. Method Forecasts Global Energy Substitution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chemical and Engineering News, 1975

    1975-01-01

    Describes a model developed to forecast energy demands and determine trends in demand for primary fuels. The energy model essentially considers primary energy sources as competing commodities in a market. (MLH)

  9. Latin American Battery Forecast Report

    SciTech Connect

    Malacon, S.

    1995-12-31

    A forecast of battery production in Latin America is described. The economic influence and political difficulties which have influenced the market are discussed. Data is presented for original equipment shipments and replacement batteries.

  10. Practical Meteor Stream Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooke, William J.; Suggs, Robert M.

    2003-01-01

    Inspired by the recent Leonid meteor storms, researchers have made great strides in our ability to predict enhanced meteor activity. However, the necessary calibration of the meteor stream models with Earth-based ZHRs (Zenith Hourly Rates) has placed emphasis on the terran observer and meteor activity predictions are published in such a manner to reflect this emphasis. As a consequence, many predictions are often unusable by the satellite community, which has the most at stake and the greatest interest in meteor forecasting. This paper suggests that stream modelers need to pay more attention to the needs of this community and publish not just durations and times of maxima for Earth, but everything needed to characterize the meteor stream in and out of the plane of the ecliptic, which, at a minimum, consists of the location of maximum stream density (ZHR) and the functional form of the density decay with distance from this point. It is also suggested that some of the terminology associated with meteor showers may need to be more strictly defined in order to eliminate the perception of crying wolf by meteor scientists. An outburst is especially problematic, as it usually denotes an enhancement by a factor of 2 or more to researchers, but conveys the notion of a sky filled with meteors to satellite operators and the public. Experience has also taught that predicted ZHRs often lead to public disappointment, as these values vastly overestimate what is seen.

  11. Preparing for an Uncertain Forecast

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karolak, Eric

    2011-01-01

    Navigating the world of government relations and public policy can be a little like predicting the weather. One can't always be sure what's in store or how it will affect him/her down the road. But there are common patterns and a few basic steps that can help one best prepare for a change in the forecast. Though the forecast is uncertain, early…

  12. Administrative Synergy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hewitt, Kimberly Kappler; Weckstein, Daniel K.

    2012-01-01

    One of the biggest obstacles to overcome in creating and sustaining an administrative professional learning community (PLC) is time. Administrators are constantly deluged by the tyranny of the urgent. It is a Herculean task to carve out time for PLCs, but it is imperative to do so. In this article, the authors describe how an administrative PLC…

  13. Forecasting droughts in East Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mwangi, E.; Wetterhall, F.; Dutra, E.; Di Giuseppe, F.; Pappenberger, F.

    2013-08-01

    The humanitarian crisis caused by the recent droughts (2008-2009 and 2010-2011) in the East African region have illustrated that the ability to make accurate drought predictions with adequate lead time is essential. The use of dynamical model forecasts and drought indices, such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), promises to lead to a better description of drought duration, magnitude and spatial extent. This study evaluates the use of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) products in forecasting droughts in East Africa. ECMWF seasonal precipitation shows significant skill for both rain seasons when evaluated against measurements from the available in-situ stations from East Africa. The October-December rain season has higher skill that the March-May season. ECMWF forecasts add value to the statistical forecasts produced during the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forums (GHACOF) which is the present operational product. Complementing the raw precipitation forecasts with SPI provides additional information on the spatial extend and intensity of the drought event.

  14. Municipal water consumption forecast accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fullerton, Thomas M.; Molina, Angel L.

    2010-06-01

    Municipal water consumption planning is an active area of research because of infrastructure construction and maintenance costs, supply constraints, and water quality assurance. In spite of that, relatively few water forecast accuracy assessments have been completed to date, although some internal documentation may exist as part of the proprietary "grey literature." This study utilizes a data set of previously published municipal consumption forecasts to partially fill that gap in the empirical water economics literature. Previously published municipal water econometric forecasts for three public utilities are examined for predictive accuracy against two random walk benchmarks commonly used in regional analyses. Descriptive metrics used to quantify forecast accuracy include root-mean-square error and Theil inequality statistics. Formal statistical assessments are completed using four-pronged error differential regression F tests. Similar to studies for other metropolitan econometric forecasts in areas with similar demographic and labor market characteristics, model predictive performances for the municipal water aggregates in this effort are mixed for each of the municipalities included in the sample. Given the competitiveness of the benchmarks, analysts should employ care when utilizing econometric forecasts of municipal water consumption for planning purposes, comparing them to recent historical observations and trends to insure reliability. Comparative results using data from other markets, including regions facing differing labor and demographic conditions, would also be helpful.

  15. Survey of air cargo forecasting techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuhlthan, A. R.; Vermuri, R. S.

    1978-01-01

    Forecasting techniques currently in use in estimating or predicting the demand for air cargo in various markets are discussed with emphasis on the fundamentals of the different forecasting approaches. References to specific studies are cited when appropriate. The effectiveness of current methods is evaluated and several prospects for future activities or approaches are suggested. Appendices contain summary type analyses of about 50 specific publications on forecasting, and selected bibliographies on air cargo forecasting, air passenger demand forecasting, and general demand and modalsplit modeling.

  16. [Preparation of Pb2+ imprinted acrylic acid-co-styrene and analysis of its adsorption properties by FAAS].

    PubMed

    Shawket, Abliz; Abdiryim, Supahun; Wang, Ji-De; Ismayil, Nurulla

    2011-06-01

    With lead ion template, acrylic acid as functional monomer, potassium persulfate as initiator, strytrene as framework monomer, lead ion imprinted polymers (Pb(II)-IIPs) were prepared using free emulsion polymerization method. The structure and morphology of the polymers were analyzed by UV-spectra, FTIR and scanning electron microscopy. The adsorption/ desorption and selectivity for Pb2+ were investigated by flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS) as the detection means. The results show that compared with non-imprinted polymers(NIPs), the Pb(II)-IIPs had higher specific adsorption properties and selective recognition ability for Pb(II). The relative selectivity coefficient of Pb(II)-IIPs for Pb(II) was 6.25, 6.18, 6.25 and 6.38 in the presence of Cd(II), Cu(II), Mn(II) and Zn(II) interferences, respectively. The absorption rate was the best at the pH of adsorbent solution of 6, Adsorption rate reached 96% during the 2.5 h static adsorption time. Using 3.0 mol x L(-1) HCI as the best desorption solvent to desorb the adsorbents, the desorbtion rate reached 98%. Under the best adsorption conditions, the adsorption capacity of Pb(II)-IIPs for Pb(II) was found to be 40. mg x g(-1). PMID:21847962

  17. Determination of toxic heavy metals in sea water by FAAS after preconcentration with a novel chelating resin.

    PubMed

    Manivannan, D; Biju, V M

    2011-01-01

    A solid phase extraction procedure was developed for preconcentration of toxic heavy metals such as cadmium, cobalt, copper, manganese, lead and zinc in sea water samples. A microcolumn packed with 6-[(4-hydroxyphenyl)diazenyl]naphthalene-2,3-diol-formaldehyde (HPDN-F) resin acts as a sorbent to retain the analyte ions by forming metal chelates. The retained trace level metal was subsequently eluted with 1 mol/L HCl and the acid eluent was analysed by Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer (FAAS). The HPDN-F chelating resin and its metal chelates were characterized by spectral and thermal analysis. The chelating property of the HPDN-F resin towards divalent metal ions was studied as a function of pH and preconcentration flow rate. The recoveries of cadmium, cobalt, copper, manganese, lead and zinc under the optimum working conditions were above 95%. The relative standard deviations were < 2%. The limits of detection were < 0.1 microg/L. The method presented was applied for the determination of cadmium, cobalt, copper, manganese, lead and zinc in sea water samples.

  18. Navigation and flight director guidance for the NASA/FAA helicopter MLS curved approach flight test program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Phatak, A. V.; Lee, M. G.

    1985-01-01

    The navigation and flight director guidance systems implemented in the NASA/FAA helicopter microwave landing system (MLS) curved approach flight test program is described. Flight test were conducted at the U.S. Navy's Crows Landing facility, using the NASA Ames UH-lH helicopter equipped with the V/STOLAND avionics system. The purpose of these tests was to investigate the feasibility of flying complex, curved and descending approaches to a landing using MLS flight director guidance. A description of the navigation aids used, the avionics system, cockpit instrumentation and on-board navigation equipment used for the flight test is provided. Three generic reference flight paths were developed and flown during the test. They were as follows: U-Turn, S-turn and Straight-In flight profiles. These profiles and their geometries are described in detail. A 3-cue flight director was implemented on the helicopter. A description of the formulation and implementation of the flight director laws is also presented. Performance data and analysis is presented for one pilot conducting the flight director approaches.

  19. [Two steps elution method FI on-line adsorption and preconcentration coupled with FAAS for the determination of trace zinc].

    PubMed

    Wang, Zhong-yuan; Zhang, Hong-kang; Fang, Hong-da; Su, Yao-dong; Mittal, Gauri S

    2011-12-01

    A flow injection two steps elution method on-line sorption and preconcentration system coupled to flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS) was developed for the determination of trace Zn in water samples. The conventional elution procedure was divided into two steps: elution procedure and detection procedure. During the elution procedure, the eluent was pumped into KR by the suction of the peristaltic pump and through PTFE tube instead of peristaltic pump tube. By the new method, the dispersion of the analyte was decreased notably, and high absorbance peak value was achieved. Because the eluent was not through the peristaltic pump tube, the peristaltic pump tube was protected from being eroded. Emptying procedure was added in order to insure the veracity and repeatability of the experiment of every time. With 60 s (sample throughput of 37 x h(-1)) of sampling at a flow rate of 6.0 mL x min(-1), an enhancement factor (EF) of 28 (higher than 9 achieved by conventional elution method) and a detection limit (3sigma) of 0.35 x L(-1) were obtained. The precision (RSD, n=11) was 2.1% at the 20 microg x L(-1) level. When 0.1% phi triethannolamine was used as masking reagent, the recovery rate was from 98.7% to 99.6%.

  20. HESS Opinions "Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wetterhall, F.; Pappenberger, F.; Alfieri, L.; Cloke, H. L.; Thielen-del Pozo, J.; Balabanova, S.; Daňhelka, J.; Vogelbacher, A.; Salamon, P.; Carrasco, I.; Cabrera-Tordera, A. J.; Corzo-Toscano, M.; Garcia-Padilla, M.; Garcia-Sanchez, R. J.; Ardilouze, C.; Jurela, S.; Terek, B.; Csik, A.; Casey, J.; Stankūnavičius, G.; Ceres, V.; Sprokkereef, E.; Stam, J.; Anghel, E.; Vladikovic, D.; Alionte Eklund, C.; Hjerdt, N.; Djerv, H.; Holmberg, F.; Nilsson, J.; Nyström, K.; Sušnik, M.; Hazlinger, M.; Holubecka, M.

    2013-11-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

  1. Fields, Flares, And Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boucheron, L.; Al-Ghraibah, Amani; McAteer, J.; Cao, H.; Jackiewicz, J.; McNamara, B.; Voelz, D.; Calabro, B.; DeGrave, K.; Kirk, M.; Madadi, A.; Petsov, A.; Taylor, G.

    2011-05-01

    Solar active regions are the source of many energetic and geo-effective events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Understanding how these complex source regions evolve and produce these events is of fundamental importance, not only to solar physics, but also to the demands of space weather forecasting. We propose to investigate the physical properties of active region magnetic fields using fractal-, gradient-, neutral line-, emerging flux-, wavelet- and general image-based techniques, and to correlate them to solar activity. The combination of these projects with solarmonitor.org and the international Max Millenium Campaign presents an opportunity for accurate and timely flare predictions for the first time. Many studies have attempted to relate solar flares to their concomitant magnetic field distributions. However, a consistent, causal relationship between the magnetic field on the photosphere and the production of solar flares is unknown. Often the local properties of the active region magnetic field - critical in many theories of activity - are lost in the global definition of their diagnostics, in effect smoothing out variations that occur on small spatial scales. Mindful of this, our overall goal is to create measures that are sensitive to both the global and the small-scale nature of energy storage and release in the solar atmosphere in order to study solar flare prediction. This set of active region characteristics will be automatically explored for discriminating features through the use of feature selection methods. Such methods search a feature space while optimizing a criterion - the prediction of a flare in this case. The large size of the datasets used in this project make it well suited for an exploration of a large feature space. This work is funded through a New Mexico State University Interdisciplinary Research Grant.

  2. Statistical earthquake focal mechanism forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D.

    2014-04-01

    Forecasts of the focal mechanisms of future shallow (depth 0-70 km) earthquakes are important for seismic hazard estimates and Coulomb stress, and other models of earthquake occurrence. Here we report on a high-resolution global forecast of earthquake rate density as a function of location, magnitude and focal mechanism. In previous publications we reported forecasts of 0.5° spatial resolution, covering the latitude range from -75° to +75°, based on the Global Central Moment Tensor earthquake catalogue. In the new forecasts we have improved the spatial resolution to 0.1° and the latitude range from pole to pole. Our focal mechanism estimates require distance-weighted combinations of observed focal mechanisms within 1000 km of each gridpoint. Simultaneously, we calculate an average rotation angle between the forecasted mechanism and all the surrounding mechanisms, using the method of Kagan & Jackson proposed in 1994. This average angle reveals the level of tectonic complexity of a region and indicates the accuracy of the prediction. The procedure becomes problematical where longitude lines are not approximately parallel, and where shallow earthquakes are so sparse that an adequate sample spans very large distances. North or south of 75°, the azimuths of points 1000 km away may vary by about 35°. We solved this problem by calculating focal mechanisms on a plane tangent to the Earth's surface at each forecast point, correcting for the rotation of the longitude lines at the locations of earthquakes included in the averaging. The corrections are negligible between -30° and +30° latitude, but outside that band uncorrected rotations can be significantly off. Improved forecasts at 0.5° and 0.1° resolution are posted at http://eq.ess.ucla.edu/kagan/glob_gcmt_index.html.

  3. Satellite freeze forecast system. Operating/troubleshooting manual

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martsolf, J. D. (Principal Investigator)

    1983-01-01

    Examples of operational procedures are given to assist users of the satellites freeze forecasting system (SFFS) in logging in on to the computer, executing the programs in the menu, logging off the computer, and setting up the automatic system. Directions are also given for displaying, acquiring, and listing satellite maps; for communicating via terminal and monitor displays; and for what to do when the SFFS doesn't work. Administrative procedures are included.

  4. Communicating Storm Surge Forecast Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troutman, J. A.; Rhome, J.

    2015-12-01

    When it comes to tropical cyclones, storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property along the coastal United States. The coastal population density has dramatically increased over the past 20 years, putting more people at risk. Informing emergency managers, decision-makers and the public about the potential for wind driven storm surge, however, has been extremely difficult. Recently, the Storm Surge Unit at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has developed a prototype experimental storm surge watch/warning graphic to help communicate this threat more effectively by identifying areas most at risk for life-threatening storm surge. This prototype is the initial step in the transition toward a NWS storm surge watch/warning system and highlights the inundation levels that have a 10% chance of being exceeded. The guidance for this product is the Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge (P-Surge) model, which predicts the probability of various storm surge heights by statistically evaluating numerous SLOSH model simulations. Questions remain, however, if exceedance values in addition to the 10% may be of equal importance to forecasters. P-Surge data from 2014 Hurricane Arthur is used to ascertain the practicality of incorporating other exceedance data into storm surge forecasts. Extracting forecast uncertainty information through analyzing P-surge exceedances overlaid with track and wind intensity forecasts proves to be beneficial for forecasters and decision support.

  5. CME Ensemble Forecasting - A Primer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pizzo, V. J.; de Koning, C. A.; Cash, M. D.; Millward, G. H.; Biesecker, D. A.; Codrescu, M.; Puga, L.; Odstrcil, D.

    2014-12-01

    SWPC has been evaluating various approaches for ensemble forecasting of Earth-directed CMEs. We have developed the software infrastructure needed to support broad-ranging CME ensemble modeling, including composing, interpreting, and making intelligent use of ensemble simulations. The first step is to determine whether the physics of the interplanetary propagation of CMEs is better described as chaotic (like terrestrial weather) or deterministic (as in tsunami propagation). This is important, since different ensemble strategies are to be pursued under the two scenarios. We present the findings of a comprehensive study of CME ensembles in uniform and structured backgrounds that reveals systematic relationships between input cone parameters and ambient flow states and resulting transit times and velocity/density amplitudes at Earth. These results clearly indicate that the propagation of single CMEs to 1 AU is a deterministic process. Thus, the accuracy with which one can forecast the gross properties (such as arrival time) of CMEs at 1 AU is determined primarily by the accuracy of the inputs. This is no tautology - it means specifically that efforts to improve forecast accuracy should focus upon obtaining better inputs, as opposed to developing better propagation models. In a companion paper (deKoning et al., this conference), we compare in situ solar wind data with forecast events in the SWPC operational archive to show how the qualitative and quantitative findings presented here are entirely consistent with the observations and may lead to improved forecasts of arrival time at Earth.

  6. Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza.

    PubMed

    Shaman, Jeffrey; Karspeck, Alicia

    2012-12-11

    Influenza recurs seasonally in temperate regions of the world; however, our ability to predict the timing, duration, and magnitude of local seasonal outbreaks of influenza remains limited. Here we develop a framework for initializing real-time forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks, using a data assimilation technique commonly applied in numerical weather prediction. The availability of real-time, web-based estimates of local influenza infection rates makes this type of quantitative forecasting possible. Retrospective ensemble forecasts are generated on a weekly basis following assimilation of these web-based estimates for the 2003-2008 influenza seasons in New York City. The findings indicate that real-time skillful predictions of peak timing can be made more than 7 wk in advance of the actual peak. In addition, confidence in those predictions can be inferred from the spread of the forecast ensemble. This work represents an initial step in the development of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal influenza.

  7. Advances in Solar Power Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haupt, S. E.; Kosovic, B.; Drobot, S.

    2014-12-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research and partners are building a blended SunCast Solar Power Forecasting system. This system includes several short-range nowcasting models and improves upon longer range numerical weather prediction (NWP) models as part of the "Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting." The nowcasting models being built include statistical learning models that include cloud regime prediction, multiple sky imager-based advection models, satellite image-based advection models, and rapid update NWP models with cloud assimilation. The team has also integrated new modules into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to better predict clouds, aerosols, and irradiance. The modules include a new shallow convection scheme; upgraded physics parameterizations of clouds; new radiative transfer modules that specify GHI, DNI, and DIF prediction; better satellite assimilation methods; and new aerosol estimation methods. These new physical models are incorporated into WRF-Solar, which is then integrated with publically available NWP models via the Dynamic Integrated Forecast (DICast) system as well as the Nowcast Blender to provide seamless forecasts at partner utility and balancing authority commercial solar farms. The improvements will be described and results to date discussed.

  8. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    SciTech Connect

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Finley, Catherine; Nakafuji, Dora; Peterson, Jack L.; Maggio, David; Marquis, Melinda

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value of adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.

  9. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    DOE PAGES

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; et al

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value ofmore » adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.« less

  10. Spectral Analysis of Forecast Error Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prive, N. C.; Errico, Ronald M.

    2015-01-01

    The spectra of analysis and forecast error are examined using the observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASAGMAO). A global numerical weather prediction model, the Global Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation, is cycled for two months with once-daily forecasts to 336 hours to generate a control case. Verification of forecast errors using the Nature Run as truth is compared with verification of forecast errors using self-analysis; significant underestimation of forecast errors is seen using self-analysis verification for up to 48 hours. Likewise, self analysis verification significantly overestimates the error growth rates of the early forecast, as well as mischaracterizing the spatial scales at which the strongest growth occurs. The Nature Run-verified error variances exhibit a complicated progression of growth, particularly for low wave number errors. In a second experiment, cycling of the model and data assimilation over the same period is repeated, but using synthetic observations with different explicitly added observation errors having the same error variances as the control experiment, thus creating a different realization of the control. The forecast errors of the two experiments become more correlated during the early forecast period, with correlations increasing for up to 72 hours before beginning to decrease.

  11. Verification of Ensemble Forecasts for the New York City Operations Support Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Day, G.; Schaake, J. C.; Thiemann, M.; Draijer, S.; Wang, L.

    2012-12-01

    forecasts is needed to verify that the post-processed forecasts are unbiased, statistically reliable, and preserve the skill inherent in the "raw" NWS ensemble forecasts. A verification procedure and set of metrics will be presented that provide an objective assessment of ensemble forecasts. The procedure will be applied to both raw ensemble hindcasts and to post-processed ensemble hindcasts. The verification metrics will be used to validate proper functioning of the post-processor and to provide a benchmark for comparison of different types of forecasts. For example, current NWS ensemble forecasts are based on climatology, using each historical year to generate a forecast trace. The NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) under development will utilize output from both the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Climate Forecast System (CFS). Incorporating short-term meteorological forecasts and longer-term climate forecast information should provide sharper, more accurate forecasts. Hindcasts from HEFS will enable New York City to generate verification results to validate the new forecasts and further fine-tune system operating rules. Project verification results will be presented for different watersheds across a range of seasons, lead times, and flow levels to assess the quality of the current ensemble forecasts.

  12. Looking at the big scale - Global Flood Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burek, P.; Alfieri, L.; Thielen-del Pozo, J.; Muraro, D.; Pappenberger, F.; Krzeminsk, B.

    2012-04-01

    Reacting to the increasing need for better preparedness to worldwide hydrological extremes, the Joint Research Centre has joined forces with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), to couple state-of-the art weather forecasts with a hydrological model on global scale. On a pre-operationally basis a fully hydro-meteorological flood forecasting model is running since July 2011 and producing daily probabilistic discharge forecast with worldwide coverage and forecast horizon of about 1 month. An important aspect of this global system is that it is set-up on continental scale and therefore independent of administrative and political boundaries - providing downstream countries with information on upstream river conditions as well as continental and global overviews. The prototype of a Global Flood Alert System consists of HTESSEL land surface scheme coupled with LISFLOOD hydrodynamic model for the flow routing in the river network. Both hydrological models are set up on global coverage with horizontal grid resolution of 0.1° and daily time step for input and output data. To estimate corresponding discharge warning thresholds for selected return periods, the coupled HTESSEL-LISFLOOD hydrological model is driven with ERA-Interim input meteorological data for a 21 year period from 1989 onward. For daily forecasts the ensemble stream flow predictions are run by feeding Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System (VarEPS) weather forecasts into the coupled model. VarEPS consist of 51-member ensemble global forecasts for 15 days. The hydrological simulations are computed for a 45-day time horizon, to account the routing of flood waves through large river basins with time of concentration of the order of one month. Both results, the discharge thresholds from the long term run and the multiple hydrographs of the daily ensemble stream flow prediction are joined together to produce probabilistic information of critical threshold exceedance. Probabilistic

  13. Smooth Sailing for Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Through a cooperative venture with NASA's Stennis Space Center, WorldWinds, Inc., developed a unique weather and wave vector map using space-based radar satellite information and traditional weather observations. Called WorldWinds, the product provides accurate, near real-time, high-resolution weather forecasts. It was developed for commercial and scientific users. In addition to weather forecasting, the product's applications include maritime and terrestrial transportation, aviation operations, precision farming, offshore oil and gas operations, and coastal hazard response support. Target commercial markets include the operational maritime and aviation communities, oil and gas providers, and recreational yachting interests. Science applications include global long-term prediction and climate change, land-cover and land-use change, and natural hazard issues. Commercial airlines have expressed interest in the product, as it can provide forecasts over remote areas. WorldWinds, Inc., is currently providing its product to commercial weather outlets.

  14. Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R.

    1995-05-01

    This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

  15. Further increased production of free fatty acids by overexpressing a predicted transketolase gene of the pentose phosphate pathway in Aspergillus oryzae faaA disruptant.

    PubMed

    Tamano, Koichi; Miura, Ai

    2016-09-01

    Free fatty acids are useful as source materials for the production of biodiesel fuel and various chemicals such as pharmaceuticals and dietary supplements. Previously, we attained a 9.2-fold increase in free fatty acid productivity by disrupting a predicted acyl-CoA synthetase gene (faaA, AO090011000642) in Aspergillus oryzae. In this study, we achieved further increase in the productivity by overexpressing a predicted transketolase gene of the pentose phosphate pathway in the faaA disruptant. The A. oryzae genome is predicted to have three transketolase genes and overexpression of AO090023000345, one of the three genes, resulted in phenotypic change and further increase (corresponding to an increased production of 0.38 mmol/g dry cell weight) in free fatty acids at 1.4-fold compared to the faaA disruptant. Additionally, the biomass of hyphae increased at 1.2-fold by the overexpression. As a result, free fatty acid production yield per liter of liquid culture increased at 1.7-fold by the overexpression.

  16. Remotely Operated Aircraft (ROA) Impact on the National Airspace System (NAS) Work Package, 2005: Composite Report on FAA Flight Plan and Operational Evaluation Plan. Version 7.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this document is to present the findings that resulted from a high-level analysis and evaluation of the following documents: (1) The OEP (Operational Evolution Plan) Version 7 -- a 10-year plan for operational improvements to increase capacity and efficiency in U.S. air travel and transport and other use of domestic airspace. The OEP is the FAA commitment to operational improvements. It is outcome driven, with clear lines of accountability within FAA organizations. The OEP concentrates on operational solutions and integrates safety, certification, procedures, staffing, equipment, avionics and research; (2) The Draft Flight Plan 2006 through 2010 -- a multi-year strategic effort, setting a course for the FAA through 2001, to provide the safest and most efficient air transportation system in the world; (3) The NAS System Architecture Version 5 -- a blueprint for modernizing the NAS and improving NAS services and capabilities through the year 2015; and (4) The NAS-SR-1000 System Requirements Specification (NASSRS) -- a compilation of requirements which describe the operational capabilities for the NAS. The analysis is particularly focused on examining the documents for relevance to existing and/or planned future UAV operations. The evaluation specifically focuses on potential factors that could materially affect the development of a commercial ROA industry, such as: (1) Design limitations of the CNS/ATM system, (2) Human limitations, The information presented was taken from program specifications or program office lead personnel.

  17. Administrative Ecology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGarity, Augustus C., III; Maulding, Wanda

    2007-01-01

    This article discusses how all four facets of administrative ecology help dispel the claims about the "impossibility" of the superintendency. These are personal ecology, professional ecology, organizational ecology, and community ecology. Using today's superintendency as an administrative platform, current literature describes a preponderance of…

  18. Administrative Support.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doran, Dorothy; And Others

    This guide is intended to assist business education teachers in administrative support courses. The materials presented are based on the Arizona validated occupational competencies and tasks for the occupations of receptionist, secretary, and administrative assistant. Word processing skills have been infused into each of the three sections. The…

  19. ALFA: Automated load forecasting assistant

    SciTech Connect

    Jabbour, K.; Riveros, J.F.V.; Landsbergen, D.; Meyer, W.

    1988-08-01

    ALFA, an expert system for forecasting short term demand for electricity is presented. ALFA is in operation at the new Energy Management System center at Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation in Upstate New York, generating the real time hourly load forecasts up to 48 hours in advance. ALFA uses an extensive 10 year historical data base of hourly observations of 12 weather variables and load, and a rule base that takes into account daily, weekly, and seasonal variations of load, as well as holidays, special events, and load growth. A satellite interface for the real-time acquisition of weather data, and the machine-operator interface are also discussed.

  20. Acquisition forecast: Fiscal year 1995

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1995-01-01

    This volume includes projections of all anticipated FY95, and beyond, NASA contract actions above $25,000 that small and small disadvantaged businesses may be able to perform under direct contract with the government or as subcontractors. The forecast consolidates anticipated procurements at each NASA center into an agencywide report, with the aim of increasing industries' advance knowledge of NASA requirements and enhancing competition in contracting. Each center forecast report is divided into three principal categories of procurement: research and development, services, and supplies and equipment.

  1. GEM: Statistical weather forecasting procedure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, R. G.

    1983-01-01

    The objective of the Generalized Exponential Markov (GEM) Program was to develop a weather forecast guidance system that would: predict between 0 to 6 hours all elements in the airways observations; respond instantly to the latest observed conditions of the surface weather; process these observations at local sites on minicomputing equipment; exceed the accuracy of current persistence predictions at the shortest prediction of one hour and beyond; exceed the accuracy of current forecast model output statistics inside eight hours; and be capable of making predictions at one location for all locations where weather information is available.

  2. Forecast communication through the newspaper Part 1: Framing the forecaster

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, Andrew J. L.

    2015-04-01

    This review is split into two parts both of which address issues of forecast communication of an environmental disaster through the newspaper during a period of crisis. The first part explores the process by which information passes from the scientist or forecaster, through the media filter, to the public. As part of this filter preference, omission, selection of data, source, quote and story, as well as placement of the same information within an individual piece or within the newspaper itself, can serve to distort the message. The result is the introduction of bias and slant—that is, the message becomes distorted so as to favor one side of the argument against another as it passes through the filter. Bias can be used to support spin or agenda setting, so that a particular emphasis becomes placed on the story which exerts an influence on the reader's judgment. The net result of the filter components is either a negative (contrary) or positive (supportive) frame. Tabloidization of the news has also resulted in the use of strong, evocative, exaggerated words, headlines and images to support a frame. I illustrate these various elements of the media filter using coverage of the air space closure due to the April 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland). Using the British press coverage of this event it is not difficult to find examples of all media filter elements, application of which resulted in bias against the forecast and forecaster. These actors then became named and blamed. Within this logic, it becomes only too easy for forecasters and scientists to be framed in a negative way through blame culture. The result is that forecast is framed in such a way so as to cause the forecaster to be blamed for all losses associated with the loss-causing event. Within the social amplification of risk framework (SARF), this can amplify a negative impression of the risk, the event and the response. However, actions can be taken to avoid such an outcome. These actions

  3. Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence

    PubMed Central

    Mandel, David R.; Barnes, Alan

    2014-01-01

    The accuracy of 1,514 strategic intelligence forecasts abstracted from intelligence reports was assessed. The results show that both discrimination and calibration of forecasts was very good. Discrimination was better for senior (versus junior) analysts and for easier (versus harder) forecasts. Miscalibration was mainly due to underconfidence such that analysts assigned more uncertainty than needed given their high level of discrimination. Underconfidence was more pronounced for harder (versus easier) forecasts and for forecasts deemed more (versus less) important for policy decision making. Despite the observed underconfidence, there was a paucity of forecasts in the least informative 0.4–0.6 probability range. Recalibrating the forecasts substantially reduced underconfidence. The findings offer cause for tempered optimism about the accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts and indicate that intelligence producers aim to promote informativeness while avoiding overstatement. PMID:25024176

  4. Error growth in operational ECMWF forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kalnay, E.; Dalcher, A.

    1985-01-01

    A parameterization scheme used at the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting to model the average growth of the difference between forecasts on consecutive days was extended by including the effect of error growth on forecast model deficiencies. Error was defined as the difference between the forecast and analysis fields during the verification time. Systematic and random errors were considered separately in calculating the error variance for a 10 day operational forecast. A good fit was obtained with measured forecast errors and a satisfactory trend was achieved in the difference between forecasts. Fitting six parameters to forecast errors and differences that were performed separately for each wavenumber revealed that the error growth rate grew with wavenumber. The saturation error decreased with the total wavenumber and the limit of predictability, i.e., when error variance reaches 95 percent of saturation, decreased monotonically with the total wavenumber.

  5. 49 CFR 1540.117 - Threat assessments regarding aliens holding or applying for FAA certificates, ratings, or...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... the Assistant Administrator for Intelligence for TSA. Date of service means— (1) The date of personal... other evidence if there is no certificate of service or postmark. Deputy Administrator means the officer...— (1) A threat to transportation or national security; (2) A threat of air piracy or terrorism; (3)...

  6. 49 CFR 1540.117 - Threat assessments regarding aliens holding or applying for FAA certificates, ratings, or...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... the Assistant Administrator for Intelligence for TSA. Date of service means— (1) The date of personal... other evidence if there is no certificate of service or postmark. Deputy Administrator means the officer...— (1) A threat to transportation or national security; (2) A threat of air piracy or terrorism; (3)...

  7. 49 CFR 1540.117 - Threat assessments regarding aliens holding or applying for FAA certificates, ratings, or...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... the Assistant Administrator for Intelligence for TSA. Date of service means— (1) The date of personal... other evidence if there is no certificate of service or postmark. Deputy Administrator means the officer...— (1) A threat to transportation or national security; (2) A threat of air piracy or terrorism; (3)...

  8. A Delphi forecast of technology in education

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robinson, B. E.

    1973-01-01

    The results are reported of a Delphi forecast of the utilization and social impacts of large-scale educational telecommunications technology. The focus is on both forecasting methodology and educational technology. The various methods of forecasting used by futurists are analyzed from the perspective of the most appropriate method for a prognosticator of educational technology, and review and critical analysis are presented of previous forecasts and studies. Graphic responses, summarized comments, and a scenario of education in 1990 are presented.

  9. Forecasting for energy and chemical decision analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Cazalet, E.G.

    1984-08-01

    This paper focuses on uncertainty and bias in forecasts used for major energy and chemical investment decisions. Probability methods for characterizing uncertainty in the forecast are reviewed. Sources of forecasting bias are classified based on the results of relevant psychology research. Examples are drawn from the energy and chemical industry to illustrate the value of explicit characterization of uncertainty and reduction of bias in forecasts.

  10. American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) - FEMP Technical Assistance - Federal Aviation Administration - Project 209 - Control Tower and Support Building, Boise, Idaho

    SciTech Connect

    Arends, J.; Sandusky, William F.

    2010-06-28

    This report documents an energy audit performed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Redhorse Corporation (Redhorse) conducted on the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) control tower and base building in Boise, Idaho. This report presents findings of the energy audit team that evaluated construction documents and operating specifications (at the 100% level) followed by a site visit of the facility under construction. The focus of the review was to identify measures that could be incorporated into the final design and operating specifications that would result in additional energy savings for FAA that would not have otherwise occurred.

  11. American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) FEMP Technical Assistance Federal Aviation Administration – Project 209 Control Tower and Support Building, Reno, Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Arends, J.; Sandusky, William F.

    2010-06-30

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Redhorse Corporation (Redhorse) conducted an energy audit on the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) control tower and base building in Reno, Nevada. This report presents the findings of the energy audit team that evaluated construction documents and operating specifications (at the 100% level) and completed a site visit. The focus of the review was to identify measures that could be incorporated into the final design and operating specifications that would result in additional energy savings for the FAA that would not have otherwise occurred.

  12. Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Information Technology and Services--Lessons from Home Video Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klopfenstein, Bruce C.

    1989-01-01

    Describes research that examined the strengths and weaknesses of technological forecasting methods by analyzing forecasting studies made for home video players. The discussion covers assessments and explications of correct and incorrect forecasting assumptions, and their implications for forecasting the adoption of home information technologies…

  13. An Experiment in Probabilistic Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Thomas A.

    Students were asked to make forecasts of fourteen quantities where true values would not become known for five or six months. The quantities were selected to be typical of the subjects which would be of interest to a decisionmaker in business or government, and included GNP, consumer prices, draft calls, deaths in South Vietnam, and election…

  14. Worldwide satellite market demand forecast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowyer, J. M.; Frankfort, M.; Steinnagel, K. M.

    1981-01-01

    The forecast is for the years 1981 - 2000 with benchmark years at 1985, 1990 and 2000. Two typs of markets are considered for this study: Hardware (worldwide total) - satellites, earth stations and control facilities (includes replacements and spares); and non-hardware (addressable by U.S. industry) - planning, launch, turnkey systems and operations. These markets were examined for the INTELSAT System (international systems and domestic and regional systems using leased transponders) and domestic and regional systems. Forecasts were determined for six worldwide regions encompassing 185 countries using actual costs for existing equipment and engineering estimates of costs for advanced systems. Most likely (conservative growth rate estimates) and optimistic (mid range growth rate estimates) scenarios were employed for arriving at the forecasts which are presented in constant 1980 U.S. dollars. The worldwide satellite market demand forecast predicts that the market between 181 and 2000 will range from $35 to $50 billion. Approximately one-half of the world market, $16 to $20 billion, will be generated in the United States.

  15. Forecasting phenology under global warming.

    PubMed

    Ibáñez, Inés; Primack, Richard B; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J; Ellwood, Elizabeth; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi; Lee, Sang Don; Kobori, Hiromi; Silander, John A

    2010-10-12

    As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world, spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes, however, is limited. Not all species are responding similarly, and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change, but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here, we use a long-term dataset (1953-2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species, spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later, with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe, where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology. PMID:20819816

  16. Understanding and Forecasting Ethnolinguistic Vitality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karan, Mark E.

    2011-01-01

    Forecasting of ethnolinguistic vitality can only be done within a well-functioning descriptive and explanatory model of the dynamics of language stability and shift. It is proposed that the Perceived Benefit Model of Language Shift, used with a taxonomy of language shift motivations, provides that model. The model, based on individual language…

  17. Premier Forecasting Center Avoids Ax

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simpson, Sarah

    2004-03-01

    Last fall, the U.S. Senate proposed eliminating all 2004 funding for NOAA's Space Environment Center (SEC), but fortunately for the world's premier space weather forecasting center and its myriad customers, the Senate did not get its way. When the full Congress passed the final budget on 22 January, the center's budget for the year was at least restored-at least partially.

  18. Wavelet-based Evapotranspiration Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachour, R.; Maslova, I.; Ticlavilca, A. M.; McKee, M.; Walker, W.

    2012-12-01

    Providing a reliable short-term forecast of evapotranspiration (ET) could be a valuable element for improving the efficiency of irrigation water delivery systems. In the last decade, wavelet transform has become a useful technique for analyzing the frequency domain of hydrological time series. This study shows how wavelet transform can be used to access statistical properties of evapotranspiration. The objective of the research reported here is to use wavelet-based techniques to forecast ET up to 16 days ahead, which corresponds to the LANDSAT 7 overpass cycle. The properties of the ET time series, both physical and statistical, are examined in the time and frequency domains. We use the information about the energy decomposition in the wavelet domain to extract meaningful components that are used as inputs for ET forecasting models. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and multivariate relevance vector machine (MVRVM) models are coupled with the wavelet-based multiresolution analysis (MRA) results and used to generate short-term ET forecasts. Accuracy of the models is estimated and model robustness is evaluated using the bootstrap approach.

  19. Military needs and forecast, 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goldstayn, Alan B.

    1986-01-01

    FORECAST 2 has accomplished its objectives of identifying high leverage technologies for corporate Air Force review. Implementation is underway with emphasis on restructuring existing programs and programming resources in the FY88 BES/FY89 POM. Many joint service/agency opportunities exist.

  20. Volcanic forcing in decadal forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ménégoz, Martin; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Guemas, Virginie; Asif, Muhammad; Prodhomme, chloe

    2016-04-01

    Volcanic eruptions can significantly impact the climate system, by injecting large amounts of particles into the stratosphere. By reflecting backward the solar radiation, these particles cool the troposphere, and by absorbing the longwave radiation, they warm the stratosphere. As a consequence of this radiative forcing, the global mean surface temperature can decrease by several tenths of degrees. However, large eruptions are also associated to a complex dynamical response of the climate system that is particularly tricky do understand regarding the low number of available observations. Observations seem to show an increase of the positive phases of the Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) the two winters following large eruptions, associated to positive temperature anomalies over the Eurasian continent. The summers following large eruptions are generally particularly cold, especially over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere. Overall, it is really challenging to forecast the climate response to large eruptions, as it is both modulated by, and superimposed to the climate background conditions, largely driven themselves by internal variability at seasonal to decadal scales. This work describes the additional skill of a forecast system used for seasonal and decadal predictions when it includes observed volcanic forcing over the last decades. An idealized volcanic forcing that could be used for real-time forecasts is also evaluated. This work consists in a base for forecasts that will be performed in the context of the next large volcanic eruption.

  1. In Brief: Forecasting meningitis threats

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2008-12-01

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), in conjunction with a team of health and weather organizations, has launched a project to provide weather forecasts to medical officials in Africa to help reduce outbreaks of meningitis. The forecasts will enable local health care providers to target vaccination programs more effectively. In 2009, meteorologists with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is managed by UCAR, will begin issuing 14-day forecasts of atmospheric conditions in Ghana. Later, UCAR plans to work closely with health experts from several African countries to design and test a decision support system to provide health officials with useful meteorological information. ``By targeting forecasts in regions where meningitis is a threat, we may be able to help vulnerable populations. Ultimately, we hope to build on this project and provide information to public health programs battling weather-related diseases in other parts of the world,'' said Rajul Pandya, director of UCAR's Community Building Program. Funding for the project comes from a $900,000 grant from Google.org, the philanthropic arm of the Internet search company.

  2. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark

    2005-01-01

    The Applied Meteorology Unit developed a forecast tool that provides an assessment of the likelihood of local convective severe weather for the day in order to enhance protection of personnel and material assets of the 45th Space Wing Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), and Kennedy Space Center (KSC).

  3. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

  4. Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts for African Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serrat-Capdevila, A.; Valdes, J. B.; Wi, S.; Roy, T.; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Demaria, E. M.

    2015-12-01

    Using high resolution downscaled seasonal meteorological forecasts we present the development and evaluation of seasonal hydrologic forecasts with Stakeholder Agencies for selected African basins. The meteorological forecasts are produced using the Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) methodology applied to NMME hindcasts (North American Multi-Model Ensemble prediction system) to generate a bootstrap resampling of plausible weather forecasts from historical observational data. This set of downscaled forecasts is then used to drive hydrologic models to produce a range of forecasts with uncertainty estimates suitable for water resources planning in African pilot basins (i.e. Upper Zambezi, Mara Basin). In an effort to characterize the utility of these forecasts, we will present an evaluation of these forecast ensembles over the pilot basins, and discuss insights as to their operational applicability by regional actors. Further, these forecasts will be contrasted with those from a standard Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach to seasonal forecasting. The case studies presented here have been developed in the setting of the NASA SERVIR Applied Sciences Team and within the broader context of operational seasonal forecasting in Africa. These efforts are part of a dialogue with relevant planning and management agencies and institutions in Africa, which are in turn exploring how to best use uncertain forecasts for decision making.

  5. Student Enrollment Forecasting in Georgia: Lessons Learned.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chan, Tak Cheung; Pool, Harbison; Davidson, Ronald

    2002-01-01

    Study of school district enrollment forecasting in Georgia finds, for example, differences in forecasting accuracy between large and small school districts, the widespread use of the Cohort Survival Technique, a lag in small school districts' use of sophisticated, computer-based enrollment forecasting models. (Contains 34 references.) (PKP)

  6. Can Business Students Forecast Their Own Grade?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hossain, Belayet; Tsigaris, Panagiotis

    2013-01-01

    This study examines grade expectations of two groups of business students for their final course mark. We separate students that are on average "better" forecasters on the basis of them not making significant forecast errors during the semester from those students that are poor forecasters of their final grade. We find that the better…

  7. Beat the Instructor: An Introductory Forecasting Game

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Snider, Brent R.; Eliasson, Janice B.

    2013-01-01

    This teaching brief describes a 30-minute game where student groups compete in-class in an introductory time-series forecasting exercise. The students are challenged to "beat the instructor" who competes using forecasting techniques that will be subsequently taught. All forecasts are graphed prior to revealing the randomly generated…

  8. A Wind Forecasting System for Energy Application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Courtney, Jennifer; Lynch, Peter; Sweeney, Conor

    2010-05-01

    Accurate forecasting of available energy is crucial for the efficient management and use of wind power in the national power grid. With energy output critically dependent upon wind strength there is a need to reduce the errors associated wind forecasting. The objective of this research is to get the best possible wind forecasts for the wind energy industry. To achieve this goal, three methods are being applied. First, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model called WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) is being used to predict wind values over Ireland. Currently, a gird resolution of 10km is used and higher model resolutions are being evaluated to establish whether they are economically viable given the forecast skill improvement they produce. Second, the WRF model is being used in conjunction with ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensemble forecasts to produce a probabilistic weather forecasting product. Due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, a single, deterministic weather forecast can only have limited skill. The ECMWF ensemble methods produce an ensemble of 51 global forecasts, twice a day, by perturbing initial conditions of a 'control' forecast which is the best estimate of the initial state of the atmosphere. This method provides an indication of the reliability of the forecast and a quantitative basis for probabilistic forecasting. The limitation of ensemble forecasting lies in the fact that the perturbed model runs behave differently under different weather patterns and each model run is equally likely to be closest to the observed weather situation. Models have biases, and involve assumptions about physical processes and forcing factors such as underlying topography. Third, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is being applied to the output from the ensemble forecasts in order to statistically post-process the results and achieve a better wind forecasting system. BMA is a promising technique that will offer calibrated

  9. The COMESEP SEP forecast tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dierckxsens, Mark; Tziotziou, Kostas; Dalla, Silvia; Patsou, Ioanna; Marsh, Mike; Crosby, Norma; Malandraki, Olga; Lygeros, Nik

    2014-05-01

    The FP7 COMESEP (COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles: forecasting the space weather impact) project developed tools for forecasting geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation storms. Here we present the SEP forecast tool which provides a prediction of the probability for an SEP event to occur near Earth following the real-time observation of an X-ray flare, and estimates the most likely impact if such an event would occur. The tool has been operational on the COMESEP alert system (http://www.comesep.eu/alert) since November 2013. Alerts are provided for proton storms with E>10 MeV and E>60 MeV in the form of a risk level, combining the probability and expected impact. The predictions are based on a statistical analysis of SEP events and their parent solar activity during Solar Cycle 23. The input parameters are the flare intensity and longitude location, as well as the CME speed and width, if an observed CME can be associated with the flare. This information is also received through the COMESEP system. Alerts are based on the available information when triggered and are subsequently updated if more information becomes available. The forecast for the probability, the impact and risk level are evaluated on events from solar cycles 22 and 24. The effect of including flare location and CME parameters is also studied. The performance of the SEP forecast tool within the COMESEP alert system will be described. This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252)

  10. A Course in Economic Forecasting: Rationale and Content.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Loomis, David G.; Cox, James E., Jr.

    2000-01-01

    Discusses four reasons why economic forecasting courses are important: (1) forecasting skills are in demand by businesses; (2) forecasters are in demand; (3) forecasting courses have positive externalities; (4) and forecasting provides a real-world context. Describes what should be taught in an economic forecasting course. (CMK)

  11. On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts.

    PubMed

    Weisheimer, A; Palmer, T N

    2014-07-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: how good are seasonal forecasts on a scale of 1-5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that 'goodness' should be assessed first and foremost in terms of the probabilistic reliability of these ensemble-based forecasts; reliable inputs are essential for any forecast-based decision-making. We propose that a '5' should be reserved for systems that are not only reliable overall, but where, in particular, small ensemble spread is a reliable indicator of low ensemble forecast error. We study the reliability of regional temperature and precipitation forecasts of the current operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, universally regarded as one of the world-leading operational institutes producing seasonal climate forecasts. A wide range of 'goodness' rankings, depending on region and variable (with summer forecasts of rainfall over Northern Europe performing exceptionally poorly) is found. Finally, we discuss the prospects of reaching '5' across all regions and variables in 30 years time.

  12. Statistical calibration of seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, A. W.; Wiley, M.; Nijssen, B.

    2008-12-01

    Model-based streamflow forecast ensembles routinely exhibit errors due to input forecast uncertainty, initial condition uncertainty and hydrologic modeling error, and such errors can undermine the suitability of raw model forecast output for use in follow-on applications such as reservoir management. This presentation evaluates the use of quantile regression for modeling and correcting streamflow prediction errors at seasonal lead times. Quantile regression has been used rarely in the hydrologic forecasting area, yet its insensitivity to outliers and avoidance of parametric assumptions about forecast errors makes it suitable for representing quantiles of datasets (such as streamflow) that often have skewed or otherwise irregular distributions. For illustration, a local linear quantile regression framework is applied to seasonal streamflow hindcasts in the Pacific Northwest and elsewhere in the western US, and found to reduce forecast bias and improve reliability, albeit with a slight loss of forecast resolution.

  13. Univariate time series forecasting algorithm validation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ismail, Suzilah; Zakaria, Rohaiza; Muda, Tuan Zalizam Tuan

    2014-12-01

    Forecasting is a complex process which requires expert tacit knowledge in producing accurate forecast values. This complexity contributes to the gaps between end users and expert. Automating this process by using algorithm can act as a bridge between them. Algorithm is a well-defined rule for solving a problem. In this study a univariate time series forecasting algorithm was developed in JAVA and validated using SPSS and Excel. Two set of simulated data (yearly and non-yearly); several univariate forecasting techniques (i.e. Moving Average, Decomposition, Exponential Smoothing, Time Series Regressions and ARIMA) and recent forecasting process (such as data partition, several error measures, recursive evaluation and etc.) were employed. Successfully, the results of the algorithm tally with the results of SPSS and Excel. This algorithm will not just benefit forecaster but also end users that lacking in depth knowledge of forecasting process.

  14. Climate Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Young, P. C.; Fildes, R.

    2009-04-01

    This paper will discuss various aspects of climate time series data analysis, modelling and forecasting being carried out at Lancaster. This will include state-dependent parameter, nonlinear, stochastic modelling of globally averaged atmospheric carbon dioxide; the computation of emission strategies based on modern control theory; and extrapolative time series benchmark forecasts of annual average temperature, both global and local. The key to the forecasting evaluation will be the iterative estimation of forecast error based on rolling origin comparisons, as recommended in the forecasting research literature. The presentation will conclude with with a comparison of the time series forecasts with forecasts produced from global circulation models and a discussion of the implications for climate modelling research.

  15. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  16. Using Climate Forecasts for Drought Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steinemann, Anne C.

    2006-10-01

    Drought hazards, and the ability to mitigate them with advance warning, offer potentially valuable applications of climate forecast products. Yet the value is often untapped, owing to the gap between climate science and societal decisions. This study bridged that gap; it determined forecast needs among water managers, translated forecasts to meet those needs, and shaped drought decision making to take advantage of forecasts. NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) seasonal precipitation outlooks were converted into a forecast precipitation index (FPI) tailored for water managers in the southeastern United States. The FPI expresses forecasts as a departure from the climatological normal and is consistent with other drought indicators. Evaluations of CPC seasonal forecasts issued during 1995 2000 demonstrated positive skill for drought seasons in the Southeast. In addition, using evaluation criteria of water managers, 88% of forecasts for drought seasons would have appropriately prompted drought responses. Encouraged by these evaluations, and the understandability of the FPI, state water managers started using the forecasts in 2001 for deciding whether to pay farmers to suspend irrigation. Economic benefits of this forecast information were estimated at $100 $350 million in a state-declared drought year (2001, 2002) and $5 $30 million in the other years (2003, 2004). This study provides four main contributions: 1) an investigation of the needs and potential benefits of seasonal forecast information for water management, 2) a method for translating the CPC forecasts into a format needed by water managers, 3) the integration of forecast information into agency decision making, and 4) the economic valuation of that forecast information.

  17. Airfreight forecasting methodology and results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1978-01-01

    A series of econometric behavioral equations was developed to explain and forecast the evolution of airfreight traffic demand for the total U.S. domestic airfreight system, the total U.S. international airfreight system, and the total scheduled international cargo traffic carried by the top 44 foreign airlines. The basic explanatory variables used in these macromodels were the real gross national products of the countries involved and a measure of relative transportation costs. The results of the econometric analysis reveal that the models explain more than 99 percent of the historical evolution of freight traffic. The long term traffic forecasts generated with these models are based on scenarios of the likely economic outlook in the United States and 31 major foreign countries.

  18. An artificial neutral network hourly temperature forecaster with applications in load forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Khotanzad, A.; Davis, M.H.; Abaye, A.; Maratukulam, D.J.

    1996-05-01

    Many short term load forecasting techniques use forecast hourly temperatures in generating a load forecast. Some utility companies, however, do not have access to a weather service that provides these forecasts. To fill this need, a temperature forecaster, based on artificial neural networks, has been developed that predicts hourly temperatures up to seven days in the future. The prediction is based on forecast daily high and low temperatures and other information that would be readily available to any utility. The forecaster has been evaluated using data from eight utilities in the US. The mean absolute error of one day ahead forecasts for these utilities is 1.48{degree}F. The forecaster is implemented at several electric utilities and is being used in production environments.

  19. Errors in Moral Forecasting: Perceptions of Affect Shape the Gap Between Moral Behaviors and Moral Forecasts.

    PubMed

    Teper, Rimma; Tullett, Alexa M; Page-Gould, Elizabeth; Inzlicht, Michael

    2015-07-01

    Research in moral decision making has shown that there may not be a one-to-one relationship between peoples' moral forecasts and behaviors. Although past work suggests that physiological arousal may account for part of the behavior-forecasting discrepancy, whether or not perceptions of affect play an important determinant remains unclear. Here, we investigate whether this discrepancy may arise because people fail to anticipate how they will feel in morally significant situations. In Study 1, forecasters predicted cheating significantly more on a test than participants in a behavior condition actually cheated. Importantly, forecasters who received false somatic feedback, indicative of high arousal, produced forecasts that aligned more closely with behaviors. In Study 2, forecasters who misattributed their arousal to an extraneous source forecasted cheating significantly more. In Study 3, higher dispositional emotional awareness was related to less forecasted cheating. These findings suggest that perceptions of affect play a key role in the behavior-forecasting dissociation.

  20. Probabilistic Downscaling Methods for Developing Categorical Streamflow Forecasts using Climate Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazrooei, A. H.

    2015-12-01

    Statistical information from climate forecast ensembles can be utilized in developing probabilistic streamflow forecasts for providing the uncertainty in streamflow forecast potential. This study examines the use of Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) in downscaling the probabilistic information from the large-scale climate forecast ensembles into a point-scale categorical streamflow forecasts. Performance of MLR in developing one-month lead categorical forecasts is evaluated for various river basins over the US Sunbelt. Comparison of MLR with the estimated categorical forecasts from Principle Component Regression (PCR) method under both cross-validation and split-sampling validation reveals that in general the forecasts from MLR has better performance and lower Rank Probability Score (RPS) compared to the PCR forecasts. In addition, MLR performs better than PCR method particularly in arid basins that exhibit strong skewness in seasonal flows with records of distinct dry years. A theoretical underpinning for this improved performance of MLR is also provided.

  1. Post Processing Numerical Weather Prediction Model Rainfall Forecasts for Use in Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shrestha, D. L.; Robertson, D.; Bennett, J.; Ward, P.; Wang, Q. J.

    2012-12-01

    Through the water information research and development alliance (WIRADA) project, CSIRO is conducting research to improve flood and short-term streamflow forecasting services delivered by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. WIRADA aims to build and test systems to generate ensemble flood and short-term streamflow forecasts with lead times of up to 10 days by integrating rainfall forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and hydrological modelling. Here we present an overview of the latest progress towards developing this system. Rainfall during the forecast period is a major source of uncertainty in streamflow forecasting. Ensemble rainfall forecasts are used in streamflow forecasting to characterise the rainfall uncertainty. In Australia, NWP models provide forecasts of rainfall and other weather conditions for lead times of up to 10 days. However, rainfall forecasts from Australian NWP models are deterministic and often contain systematic errors. We use a simplified Bayesian joint probability (BJP) method to post-process rainfall forecasts from the latest generation of Australian NWP models. The BJP method generates reliable and skilful ensemble rainfall forecasts. The post-processed rainfall ensembles are then used to force a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall runoff model to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. The performance of the ensemble streamflow forecasts is evaluated on a number of Australian catchments and the benefits of using post processed rainfall forecasts are demonstrated.

  2. Short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting using operationally-produced single-valued streamflow forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Regonda, Satish; Seo, Dong-Jun; Lawrence, Bill

    2010-05-01

    We present a statistical procedure that generates short-term streamflow ensemble forecasts from single-valued, or deterministic, forecasts operationally produced by the National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFC). The resulting ensemble forecast provides an estimate of the uncertainty in the single-valued forecast to aid risk-based decision making by the emergency managers and by the users of the forecast products and services. The single-valued forecasts are produced at a 6-hr time step for 5 days into the future, and reflect single-valued short-term quantitative precipitation and temperature forecasts (QPF, QTF) and various run-time modifications (MOD), or manual data assimilation, by human forecasters to reduce various sources of error in the end-to-end forecast process. The proposed procedure generates 5 day-ahead ensemble traces of streamflow from a very parsimonious approximation of the conditional multivariate probability distribution of future streamflow given the single-valued streamflow forecasts, QPF and recent streamflow observations. For parameter estimation and evaluation, we used a 10-year archive of the single-valued river stage forecasts for six forecast points in Oklahoma produced operationally by the Arkansas-Red River Basin River Forecast Center (ABRFC). To evaluate the procedure, we carried out dependent and leave-one-year-out cross validation. The resulting ensemble hindcasts are then verified using the Ensemble Verification System (EVS) developed at the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD).

  3. Forecast of iceberg ensemble drift

    SciTech Connect

    El-Tahan, M.S.; El-Tahan, H.W.; Venkatesh, S.

    1983-05-01

    The objectives of the study are to gain a better understanding of the characteristics of iceberg motion and the factors controlling iceberg drift, and to develop an iceberg ensemble drift forecast system to be operated by the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service. An extensive review of field and theoretical studies on iceberg behaviour, and the factors controlling iceberg motion has been carried out. Long term and short term behaviour of icebergs are critically examined. A quantitative assessment of the effects of the factors controlling iceberg motion is presented. The study indicated that wind and currents are the primary driving forces. Coriolis Force and ocean surface slope also have significant effects. As for waves, only the higher waves have a significant effect. Iceberg drift is also affected by iceberg size characteristics. Based on the findings of the study a comprehensive computerized forecast system to predict the drift of iceberg ensembles off Canada's east coast has been designed. The expected accuracy of the forecast system is discussed and recommendations are made for future improvements to the system.

  4. Administrative IT

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grayson, Katherine, Ed.

    2006-01-01

    When it comes to Administrative IT solutions and processes, best practices range across the spectrum. Enterprise resource planning (ERP), student information systems (SIS), and tech support are prominent and continuing areas of focus. But widespread change can also be accomplished via the implementation of campuswide document imaging and sharing,…

  5. Database Administrator

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moore, Pam

    2010-01-01

    The Internet and electronic commerce (e-commerce) generate lots of data. Data must be stored, organized, and managed. Database administrators, or DBAs, work with database software to find ways to do this. They identify user needs, set up computer databases, and test systems. They ensure that systems perform as they should and add people to the…

  6. ADMINISTRATIVE CLIMATE.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    BRUCE, ROBERT L.; CARTER, G.L., JR.

    IN THE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICE, STYLES OF LEADERSHIP PROFOUNDLY AFFECT THE QUALITY OF THE SERVICE RENDERED. ACCORDINGLY, MAJOR INFLUENCES ON ADMINISTRATIVE CLIMATE AND EMPLOYEE PRODUCTIVITY ARE EXAMINED IN ESSAYS ON (1) SOURCES OF JOB SATISFACTION AND DISSATISFACTION, (2) MOTIVATIONAL THEORIES BASED ON JOB-RELATED SATISFACTIONS AND NEEDS,…

  7. Engineering Administration.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Naval Personnel Program Support Activity, Washington, DC.

    This book is intended to acquaint naval engineering officers with their duties in the engineering department. Standard shipboard organizations are analyzed in connection with personnel assignments, division operations, and watch systems. Detailed descriptions are included for the administration of directives, ship's bills, damage control, training…

  8. Communicating uncertainty in hydrological forecasts: mission impossible?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, Maria-Helena; Mathevet, Thibault; Thielen, Jutta; Pappenberger, Florian

    2010-05-01

    Cascading uncertainty in meteo-hydrological modelling chains for forecasting and integrated flood risk assessment is an essential step to improve the quality of hydrological forecasts. Although the best methodology to quantify the total predictive uncertainty in hydrology is still debated, there is a common agreement that one must avoid uncertainty misrepresentation and miscommunication, as well as misinterpretation of information by users. Several recent studies point out that uncertainty, when properly explained and defined, is no longer unwelcome among emergence response organizations, users of flood risk information and the general public. However, efficient communication of uncertain hydro-meteorological forecasts is far from being a resolved issue. This study focuses on the interpretation and communication of uncertain hydrological forecasts based on (uncertain) meteorological forecasts and (uncertain) rainfall-runoff modelling approaches to decision-makers such as operational hydrologists and water managers in charge of flood warning and scenario-based reservoir operation. An overview of the typical flow of uncertainties and risk-based decisions in hydrological forecasting systems is presented. The challenges related to the extraction of meaningful information from probabilistic forecasts and the test of its usefulness in assisting operational flood forecasting are illustrated with the help of two case-studies: 1) a study on the use and communication of probabilistic flood forecasting within the European Flood Alert System; 2) a case-study on the use of probabilistic forecasts by operational forecasters from the hydroelectricity company EDF in France. These examples show that attention must be paid to initiatives that promote or reinforce the active participation of expert forecasters in the forecasting chain. The practice of face-to-face forecast briefings, focusing on sharing how forecasters interpret, describe and perceive the model output forecasted

  9. Assessment of reservoir system variable forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kistenmacher, Martin; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2015-05-01

    Forecast ensembles are a convenient means to model water resources uncertainties and to inform planning and management processes. For multipurpose reservoir systems, forecast types include (i) forecasts of upcoming inflows and (ii) forecasts of system variables and outputs such as reservoir levels, releases, flood damage risks, hydropower production, water supply withdrawals, water quality conditions, navigation opportunities, and environmental flows, among others. Forecasts of system variables and outputs are conditional on forecasted inflows as well as on specific management policies and can provide useful information for decision-making processes. Unlike inflow forecasts (in ensemble or other forms), which have been the subject of many previous studies, reservoir system variable and output forecasts are not formally assessed in water resources management theory or practice. This article addresses this gap and develops methods to rectify potential reservoir system forecast inconsistencies and improve the quality of management-relevant information provided to stakeholders and managers. The overarching conclusion is that system variable and output forecast consistency is critical for robust reservoir management and needs to be routinely assessed for any management model used to inform planning and management processes. The above are demonstrated through an application from the Sacramento-American-San Joaquin reservoir system in northern California.

  10. Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2012-01-01

    Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare

  11. How rolling forecasting facilitates dynamic, agile planning.

    PubMed

    Miller, Debra; Allen, Michael; Schnittger, Stephanie; Hackman, Theresa

    2013-11-01

    Rolling forecasting may be used to replace or supplement the annual budget process. The rolling forecast typically builds on the organization's strategic financial plan, focusing on the first three years of plan projections and comparing the strategic financial plan assumptions with the organization's expected trajectory. Leaders can then identify and respond to gaps between the rolling forecast and the strategic financial plan on an ongoing basis.

  12. Seasonal hydrological ensemble forecasts over Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Pappenberger, Florian

    2015-04-01

    Seasonal forecasts have an important socio-economic value in hydro-meteorological forecasting. The applications are for example hydropower management, spring flood prediction and water resources management. The latter includes prediction of low flows, primordial for navigation, water quality assessment, droughts and agricultural water needs. Traditionally, seasonal hydrological forecasts are done using the observed discharge from previous years, so called Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). With the recent increasing development of seasonal meteorological forecasts, the incentive for developing and improving seasonal hydrological forecasts is great. In this study, a seasonal hydrological forecast, driven by the ECMWF's System 4 (SEA), was compared with an ESP of modelled discharge using observations. The hydrological model used for both forecasts was the LISFLOOD model, run over a European domain with a spatial resolution of 5 km. The forecasts were produced from 1990 until the present time, with a daily time step. They were issued once a month with a lead time of seven months. The SEA forecasts are constituted of 15 ensemble members, extended to 51 members every three months. The ESP forecasts comprise 20 ensembles and served as a benchmark for this comparative study. The forecast systems were compared using a diverse set of verification metrics, such as continuous ranked probability scores, ROC curves, anomaly correlation coefficients and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients. These metrics were computed over several time-scales, ranging from a weekly to a six-months basis, for each season. The evaluation enabled the investigation of several aspects of seasonal forecasting, such as limits of predictability, timing of high and low flows, as well as exceedance of percentiles. The analysis aimed at exploring the spatial distribution and timely evolution of the limits of predictability.

  13. [Application of phenological pattern recognition in ecological dynamic forecasting].

    PubMed

    Pei, Tiefan; Jin, Changiie

    2005-09-01

    This paper described the principles, methods, and procedures of ecological dynamic forecasting by the automation techniques of pattern recognition and mathematical logic judgment on the basis of phenological data and model output maps from T42L9 numerical weather prediction model. This new forecasting method proposed on the basis of modern meteorology and automation techniques enables the classic phenology to apply to a new field ecological forecasting. It enables phenological forecasting to develop from single-station forecasting stage to regional forecasting stage, which is greatly corresponded to the development stage from single station forecasting stage to synoptic stage in weather forecasting, and enables agro-meteorological forecasting to develop from qualitative and statistical forecasting stage to ecological dynamic forecasting stage. With this new qualitative forecasting method, both the predicted objective and predictors are of considerable bio-physical interests. The ecological dynamic forecasting method could be applied to crop sowing, crop growth, irrigation and fertilization, and diseases and pests

  14. Empirical seasonal forecasts of the NAO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanchezgomez, E.; Ortizbevia, M.

    2003-04-01

    We present here seasonal forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) issued from ocean predictors with an empirical procedure. The Singular Values Decomposition (SVD) of the cross-correlation matrix between predictor and predictand fields at the lag used for the forecast lead is at the core of the empirical model. The main predictor field are sea surface temperature anomalies, although sea ice cover anomalies are also used. Forecasts are issued in probabilistic form. The model is an improvement over a previous version (1), where Sea Level Pressure Anomalies were first forecast, and the NAO Index built from this forecast field. Both correlation skill between forecast and observed field, and number of forecasts that hit the correct NAO sign, are used to assess the forecast performance , usually above those values found in the case of forecasts issued assuming persistence. For certain seasons and/or leads, values of the skill are above the .7 usefulness treshold. References (1) SanchezGomez, E. and Ortiz Bevia M., 2002, Estimacion de la evolucion pluviometrica de la Espana Seca atendiendo a diversos pronosticos empiricos de la NAO, in 'El Agua y el Clima', Publicaciones de la AEC, Serie A, N 3, pp 63-73, Palma de Mallorca, Spain

  15. Combining forecast weights: Why and how?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Yip Chee; Kok-Haur, Ng; Hock-Eam, Lim

    2012-09-01

    This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions, forecast weight averaging can lower the mean squared forecast error obtained from model averaging. In addition, we show that in a linear and homoskedastic environment, this superior predictive ability of forecast weight averaging holds true irrespective whether the coefficients are tested by t statistic or z statistic provided the significant level is within the 10% range. By theoretical proofs and simulation study, we have shown that model averaging like, variance model averaging, simple model averaging and standard error model averaging, each produces mean squared forecast error larger than that of forecast weight averaging. Finally, this result also holds true marginally when applied to business and economic empirical data sets, Gross Domestic Product (GDP growth rate), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Average Lending Rate (ALR) of Malaysia.

  16. Visualization of ocean forecast in BYTHOS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuk, E.; Zodiatis, G.; Nikolaidis, A.; Stylianou, S.; Karaolia, A.

    2016-08-01

    The Cyprus Oceanography Center has been constantly searching for new ideas for developing and implementing innovative methods and new developments concerning the use of Information Systems in Oceanography, to suit both the Center's monitoring and forecasting products. Within the frame of this scope two major online managing and visualizing data systems have been developed and utilized, those of CYCOFOS and BYTHOS. The Cyprus Coastal Ocean Forecasting and Observing System - CYCOFOS provides a variety of operational predictions such as ultra high, high and medium resolution ocean forecasts in the Levantine Basin, offshore and coastal sea state forecasts in the Mediterranean and Black Sea, tide forecasting in the Mediterranean, ocean remote sensing in the Eastern Mediterranean and coastal and offshore monitoring. As a rich internet application, BYTHOS enables scientists to search, visualize and download oceanographic data online and in real time. The recent improving of BYTHOS system is the extension with access and visualization of CYCOFOS data and overlay forecast fields and observing data. The CYCOFOS data are stored at OPENDAP Server in netCDF format. To search, process and visualize it the php and python scripts were developed. Data visualization is achieved through Mapserver. The BYTHOS forecast access interface allows to search necessary forecasting field by recognizing type, parameter, region, level and time. Also it provides opportunity to overlay different forecast and observing data that can be used for complex analyze of sea basin aspects.

  17. Assessing probabilistic forecasts of volcanic eruption onsets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bebbington, Mark S.

    2013-12-01

    A method for assessing prospectively the quality of a suite of eruption forecasts is proposed. Any forecast of the next eruption onset from a polygenetic volcano can be converted into a probability distribution for the elapsed time since the forecast is made. This probability distribution, which effectively becomes a statistical P value when the observation is "plugged in," will thus itself have a uniform distribution under the null hypothesis that the forecast correctly describes the process. Given sufficient realizations, which may be on the same or different volcanoes, we can use standard statistical tests, such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, to determine if the forecasts are consistent with the model(s). The use of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test enables currently open forecasts to be included via the Kaplan-Meier product-limit estimator. While consistent underestimates (or overestimates) of the repose length will result in a median greater (or less) than , the method also assesses whether the method assigns the correct degree of aleatory variability to the forecast. Note that it is possible for the forecasts to be less precise than claimed. This would be indicated by the median of the sample being around , but the quartiles being well outside the interval, for example. The method is illustrated on the author's library of forecasts dating back to 1994, including renewal models and other point processes, on a gallery of approximately 20 volcanoes including Etna, Aso, and Ruapehu.

  18. Optimized Flood Forecasts Using a Statistical Enemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silver, Micha; Fredj, Erick

    2016-04-01

    The method presented here assembles an optimized flood forecast from a set of consecutive WRF-Hydro simulations by applying coefficients which we derive from straightforward statistical procedures. Several government and research institutions that produce climate data offer ensemble forecasts, which merge predictions from different models to gain a more accurate fit to observed data. Existing ensemble forecasts present climate and weather predictions only. In this research we propose a novel approach to constructing hydrological ensembles for flood forecasting. The ensemble flood forecast is created by combining predictions from the same model, but initiated at different times. An operative flood forecasting system, run by the Israeli Hydrological Service, produces flood forecasts twice daily with a 72 hour forecast period. By collating the output from consecutive simulation runs we have access to multiple overlapping forecasts. We then apply two statistical procedures to blend these consecutive forecasts, resulting in a very close fit to observed flood runoff. We first employ cross-correlation with a time lag to determine a time shift for each of the original, consecutive forecasts. This shift corrects for two possible sources of error: slow or fast moving weather fronts in the base climate data; and mis-calibrations of the WRF-Hydro model in determining the rate of flow of surface runoff and in channels. We apply this time shift to all consecutive forecasts, then run a linear regression with the observed runoff data as the dependent variable and all shifted forecasts as the predictor variables. The solution to the linear regression equation is a set of coefficients that corrects the amplitude errors in the forecasts. These resulting regression coefficients are then applied to the consecutive forecasts producing a statistical ensemble which, by design, closely matches the observed runoff. After performing this procedure over many storm events in the Negev region

  19. Wheat yield forecasts using LANDSAT data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colwell, J. E.; Rice, D. P.; Nalepka, R. F.

    1977-01-01

    Several considerations of winter wheat yield prediction using LANDSAT data were discussed. In addition, a simple technique which permits direct early season forecasts of wheat production was described.

  20. The Economic Value of Air Quality Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson-Sumo, Tasha

    Both long-term and daily air quality forecasts provide an essential component to human health and impact costs. According the American Lung Association, the estimated current annual cost of air pollution related illness in the United States, adjusted for inflation (3% per year), is approximately $152 billion. Many of the risks such as hospital visits and morality are associated with poor air quality days (where the Air Quality Index is greater than 100). Groups such as sensitive groups become more susceptible to the resulting conditions and more accurate forecasts would help to take more appropriate precautions. This research focuses on evaluating the utility of air quality forecasting in terms of its potential impacts by building on air quality forecasting and economical metrics. Our analysis includes data collected during the summertime ozone seasons between 2010 and 2012 from air quality models for the Washington, DC/Baltimore, MD region. The metrics that are relevant to our analysis include: (1) The number of times that a high ozone or particulate matter (PM) episode is correctly forecasted, (2) the number of times that high ozone or PM episode is forecasted when it does not occur and (3) the number of times when the air quality forecast predicts a cleaner air episode when the air was observed to have high ozone or PM. Our collection of data included available air quality model forecasts of ozone and particulate matter data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s AIRNOW as well as observational data of ozone and particulate matter from Clean Air Partners. We evaluated the performance of the air quality forecasts with that of the observational data and found that the forecast models perform well for the Baltimore/Washington region and the time interval observed. We estimate the potential amount for the Baltimore/Washington region accrues to a savings of up to 5,905 lives and 5.9 billion dollars per year. This total assumes perfect compliance with

  1. Intermediate-term forecasting of aftershocks from an early aftershock sequence: Bayesian and ensemble forecasting approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omi, Takahiro; Ogata, Yosihiko; Hirata, Yoshito; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2015-04-01

    Because aftershock occurrences can cause significant seismic risks for a considerable time after the main shock, prospective forecasting of the intermediate-term aftershock activity as soon as possible is important. The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model with the maximum likelihood estimate effectively reproduces general aftershock activity including secondary or higher-order aftershocks and can be employed for the forecasting. However, because we cannot always expect the accurate parameter estimation from incomplete early aftershock data where many events are missing, such forecasting using only a single estimated parameter set (plug-in forecasting) can frequently perform poorly. Therefore, we here propose Bayesian forecasting that combines the forecasts by the ETAS model with various probable parameter sets given the data. By conducting forecasting tests of 1 month period aftershocks based on the first 1 day data after the main shock as an example of the early intermediate-term forecasting, we show that the Bayesian forecasting performs better than the plug-in forecasting on average in terms of the log-likelihood score. Furthermore, to improve forecasting of large aftershocks, we apply a nonparametric (NP) model using magnitude data during the learning period and compare its forecasting performance with that of the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) formula. We show that the NP forecast performs better than the G-R formula in some cases but worse in other cases. Therefore, robust forecasting can be obtained by employing an ensemble forecast that combines the two complementary forecasts. Our proposed method is useful for a stable unbiased intermediate-term assessment of aftershock probabilities.

  2. Bias correcting precipitation forecasts to improve the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crochemore, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-09-01

    Meteorological centres make sustained efforts to provide seasonal forecasts that are increasingly skilful, which has the potential to benefit streamflow forecasting. Seasonal streamflow forecasts can help to take anticipatory measures for a range of applications, such as water supply or hydropower reservoir operation and drought risk management. This study assesses the skill of seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts in France to provide insights into the way bias correcting precipitation forecasts can improve the skill of streamflow forecasts at extended lead times. We apply eight variants of bias correction approaches to the precipitation forecasts prior to generating the streamflow forecasts. The approaches are based on the linear scaling and the distribution mapping methods. A daily hydrological model is applied at the catchment scale to transform precipitation into streamflow. We then evaluate the skill of raw (without bias correction) and bias-corrected precipitation and streamflow ensemble forecasts in 16 catchments in France. The skill of the ensemble forecasts is assessed in reliability, sharpness, accuracy and overall performance. A reference prediction system, based on historical observed precipitation and catchment initial conditions at the time of forecast (i.e. ESP method) is used as benchmark in the computation of the skill. The results show that, in most catchments, raw seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts are often more skilful than the conventional ESP method in terms of sharpness. However, they are not significantly better in terms of reliability. Forecast skill is generally improved when applying bias correction. Two bias correction methods show the best performance for the studied catchments, each method being more successful in improving specific attributes of the forecasts: the simple linear scaling of monthly values contributes mainly to increasing forecast sharpness and accuracy, while the empirical distribution mapping

  3. PM2.5 analog forecast and Kalman filter post-processing for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Djalalova, Irina; Delle Monache, Luca; Wilczak, James

    2015-10-01

    A new post-processing method for surface particulate matter (PM2.5) predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) developmental air quality forecasting system using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is described. It includes three main components: A real-time quality control procedure for surface PM2.5 observations; Model post-processing at each observational site using historical forecast analogs and Kalman filtering; Spreading the forecast corrections from the observation locations to the entire gridded domain.

  4. Statistical evaluation of CFS seasonal precipitation forecasts for large-scale droughts in Africa and India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siegmund, Jonatan; Bliefernicht, Jan; Laux, Patrick; Kunstmann, Harald

    2013-04-01

    Monthly and seasonal meteorological forecasts are routinely produced by several international weather services using global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. This kind of information can be used as source of information in operational hydrological monitoring and forecasting systems to improve early drought warnings. In March 2011, a new version of the global coupled model of the National Centre for Environmental Prediction, the Climate Forecast System (CFS) Version 2, became operational providing real-time ensemble forecasts up to nine months. However, a comprehensive analysis of the CFS forecast for the prediction of droughts in water stress regions has not yet been performed. In this study we evaluate the CFS precipitation forecasts for large-scale droughts that occurred during the rainy season in West Africa, East Africa and India. The target areas are large-scale river-basins like Volta (West Africa), Ganges (India) and the administrative area of Kenya. The forecasts are compared to monthly precipitation observations provided on a regular grid by the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre. In addition, the CFS performance is evaluated using areal monthly precipitation amount of the river basin of interest as an indicator for dry months. The verification is done for the period 1982-2009 using all ensemble members of the retrospective CFS archive. The outcomes of this study illustrate, that the CFS in some cases can simulate general features of the monthly precipitation regime for the respective river basins. However, an evaluation using the entire retrospective CFS forecasts demonstrates a low accuracy. Furthermore, the seasonal forecasts of monthly precipitation are characterized by a large over- and underestimation during the rainy season depending on the target region. In this presentation, the following issues are highlighted: (i) The performance of the CFS precipitation forecast for individual events such as the severe India drought in

  5. Volcanic ash forecast transport and dispersion (VAFTAD) model

    SciTech Connect

    Heffter, J.L.; Stunder, B.J.B.

    1993-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) has developed a Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport And Dispersion (VAFTAD) model for emergency response use focusing on hazards to aircraft flight operations. The model is run on a workstation at ARL. Meteorological input for the model is automatically downloaded from the NOAA National Meteorological Center (NMC) twice-daily forecast model runs to ARL. Additional input for VAFTAD ragarding the volcanic eruption is supplied by the user guided by monitor prompts. The model calculates transport and dispersion of volcanic ash from an initial ash cloud that has reached its maximum height within 3 h of eruption time. The model assumes that spherical ash particles of diameters ranging from 0.3 to 30 micrometers are distributed throughout the initial cloud with a particle number distribution based on Mount St. Helens and Redoubt Volcano eruptions. Particles are advected horizontally and vertically by the winds and fall according to Stoke`s law with a slip correction. A bivariate-normal distribution is used for horizontally diffusing the cloud and determining ash concentrations. Model output gives maps with symbols representing relative concentrations in three flight layers, and throughout the entire ash cloud, for sequential 6- and 12-h time intervals. A verification program for VAFTAD has been started. Results subjectively comparing model ash cloud forecasts with satellite imagery for three separate 1992 eruptions of Mount Spurr in Alaska have been most encouraging.

  6. National Severe Storms Forecast Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    The principal mission of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC) is to maintain a continuous watch of weather developments that are capable of producing severe local storms, including tornadoes, and to prepare and issue messages designated as either Weather Outlooks or Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Watches for dissemination to the public and aviation services. In addition to its assigned responsibility at the national level, the NSSFC is involved in a number of programs at the regional and local levels. Subsequent subsections and paragraphs describe the NSSFC, its users, inputs, outputs, interfaces, capabilities, workload, problem areas, and future plans in more detail.

  7. Earthquake Scaling, Simulation and Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sachs, Michael Karl

    Earthquakes are among the most devastating natural events faced by society. In 2011, just two events, the magnitude 6.3 earthquake in Christcurch New Zealand on February 22, and the magnitude 9.0 Tohoku earthquake off the coast of Japan on March 11, caused a combined total of $226 billion in economic losses. Over the last decade, 791,721 deaths were caused by earthquakes. Yet, despite their impact, our ability to accurately predict when earthquakes will occur is limited. This is due, in large part, to the fact that the fault systems that produce earthquakes are non-linear. The result being that very small differences in the systems now result in very big differences in the future, making forecasting difficult. In spite of this, there are patterns that exist in earthquake data. These patterns are often in the form of frequency-magnitude scaling relations that relate the number of smaller events observed to the number of larger events observed. In many cases these scaling relations show consistent behavior over a wide range of scales. This consistency forms the basis of most forecasting techniques. However, the utility of these scaling relations is limited by the size of the earthquake catalogs which, especially in the case of large events, are fairly small and limited to a few 100 years of events. In this dissertation I discuss three areas of earthquake science. The first is an overview of scaling behavior in a variety of complex systems, both models and natural systems. The focus of this area is to understand how this scaling behavior breaks down. The second is a description of the development and testing of an earthquake simulator called Virtual California designed to extend the observed catalog of earthquakes in California. This simulator uses novel techniques borrowed from statistical physics to enable the modeling of large fault systems over long periods of time. The third is an evaluation of existing earthquake forecasts, which focuses on the Regional

  8. 1992 five year battery forecast

    SciTech Connect

    Amistadi, D.

    1992-12-01

    Five-year trends for automotive and industrial batteries are projected. Topic covered include: SLI shipments; lead consumption; automotive batteries (5-year annual growth rates); industrial batteries (standby power and motive power); estimated average battery life by area/country for 1989; US motor vehicle registrations; replacement battery shipments; potential lead consumption in electric vehicles; BCI recycling rates for lead-acid batteries; US average car/light truck battery life; channels of distribution; replacement battery inventory end July; 2nd US battery shipment forecast.

  9. Forecast Mekong: navigating changing waters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Powell, Janine

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is using research and data from the Mekong River Delta in Southeast Asia to compare restoration, conservation, and management efforts there with those done in other major river deltas, such as the Mississippi River Delta in the United States. The project provides a forum to engage regional partners in the Mekong Basin countries to share data and support local research efforts. Ultimately, Forecast Mekong will lead to more informed decisions about how to make the Mekong and Mississippi Deltas resilient in the face of climate change, economic stresses, and other impacts.

  10. Uncertainty forecasts improve weather-related decisions and attenuate the effects of forecast error.

    PubMed

    Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E

    2012-03-01

    Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather warning system is used. The work reported here tested the relative benefits of several forecast formats, comparing decisions made with and without uncertainty forecasts. In three experiments, participants assumed the role of a manager of a road maintenance company in charge of deciding whether to pay to salt the roads and avoid a potential penalty associated with icy conditions. Participants used overnight low temperature forecasts accompanied in some conditions by uncertainty estimates and in others by decision advice comparable to categorical warnings. Results suggested that uncertainty information improved decision quality overall and increased trust in the forecast. Participants with uncertainty forecasts took appropriate precautionary action and withheld unnecessary action more often than did participants using deterministic forecasts. When error in the forecast increased, participants with conventional forecasts were reluctant to act. However, this effect was attenuated by uncertainty forecasts. Providing categorical decision advice alone did not improve decisions. However, combining decision advice with uncertainty estimates resulted in the best performance overall. The results reported here have important implications for the development of forecast formats to increase compliance with severe weather warnings as well as other domains in which one must act in the face of uncertainty.

  11. Perturbation of convection-permitting NWP forecasts for flash-flood ensemble forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vincendon, B.; Ducrocq, V.; Nuissier, O.; Vié, B.

    2011-05-01

    Mediterranean intense weather events often lead to devastating flash-floods. Extending the forecasting lead times further than the watershed response times, implies the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) to drive hydrological models. However, the nature of the precipitating events and the temporal and spatial scales of the watershed response make them difficult to forecast, even using a high-resolution convection-permitting NWP deterministic forecasting. This study proposes a new method to sample the uncertainties of high-resolution NWP precipitation forecasts in order to quantify the predictability of the streamflow forecasts. We have developed a perturbation method based on convection-permitting NWP-model error statistics. It produces short-term precipitation ensemble forecasts from single-value meteorological forecasts. These rainfall ensemble forecasts are then fed into a hydrological model dedicated to flash-flood forecasting to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. The verification on two flash-flood events shows that this forecasting ensemble performs better than the deterministic forecast. The performance of the precipitation perturbation method has also been found to be broadly as good as that obtained using a state-of-the-art research convection-permitting NWP ensemble, while requiring less computing time.

  12. Uncertainty forecasts improve weather-related decisions and attenuate the effects of forecast error.

    PubMed

    Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E

    2012-03-01

    Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather warning system is used. The work reported here tested the relative benefits of several forecast formats, comparing decisions made with and without uncertainty forecasts. In three experiments, participants assumed the role of a manager of a road maintenance company in charge of deciding whether to pay to salt the roads and avoid a potential penalty associated with icy conditions. Participants used overnight low temperature forecasts accompanied in some conditions by uncertainty estimates and in others by decision advice comparable to categorical warnings. Results suggested that uncertainty information improved decision quality overall and increased trust in the forecast. Participants with uncertainty forecasts took appropriate precautionary action and withheld unnecessary action more often than did participants using deterministic forecasts. When error in the forecast increased, participants with conventional forecasts were reluctant to act. However, this effect was attenuated by uncertainty forecasts. Providing categorical decision advice alone did not improve decisions. However, combining decision advice with uncertainty estimates resulted in the best performance overall. The results reported here have important implications for the development of forecast formats to increase compliance with severe weather warnings as well as other domains in which one must act in the face of uncertainty. PMID:21875244

  13. Development of a Multi-Model Ensemble Scheme for the Tropical Cyclone Forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jun, S.; Lee, W. J.; Kang, K.; Shin, D. H.

    2015-12-01

    A Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) prediction scheme using selected and weighted method was developed and evaluated for tropical cyclone forecast. The analyzed tropical cyclone track and intensity data set provided by Korea Meteorological Administration and 11 numerical model outputs - GDAPS, GEPS, GFS (data resolution; 50 and 100 km), GFES, HWRF, IFS(data resolution; 50 and 100 km), IFS EPS, JGSM, and TEPS - during 2011-2014 were used for this study. The procedure suggested in this study was divided into two stages: selecting and weighting process. First several numerical models were chosen based on the past model's performances in the selecting stage. Next, weights, referred to as regression coefficients, for each model forecasts were calculated by applying the linear and nonlinear regression technique to past model forecast data in the weighting stage. Finally, tropical cyclone forecasts were determined by using both selected and weighted multi-model values at that forecast time. The preliminary result showed that selected MME's improvement rate (%) was more than 5% comparing with non-selected MME at 72 h track forecast.

  14. Earthquakes - Volcanoes (Causes and Forecast)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsiapas, E.

    2009-04-01

    EARTHQUAKES - VOLCANOES (CAUSES AND FORECAST) ELIAS TSIAPAS RESEARCHER NEA STYRA, EVIA,GREECE TEL.0302224041057 tsiapas@hol.gr The earthquakes are caused by large quantities of liquids (e.g. H2O, H2S, SO2, ect.) moving through lithosphere and pyrosphere (MOHO discontinuity) till they meet projections (mountains negative projections or projections coming from sinking lithosphere). The liquids are moved from West Eastward carried away by the pyrosphere because of differential speed of rotation of the pyrosphere by the lithosphere. With starting point an earthquake which was noticed at an area and from statistical studies, we know when, where and what rate an earthquake may be, which earthquake is caused by the same quantity of liquids, at the next east region. The forecast of an earthquake ceases to be valid if these components meet a crack in the lithosphere (e.g. limits of lithosphere plates) or a volcano crater. In this case the liquids come out into the atmosphere by the form of gasses carrying small quantities of lava with them (volcano explosion).

  15. Streamflow forecasting using functional regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masselot, Pierre; Dabo-Niang, Sophie; Chebana, Fateh; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.

    2016-07-01

    Streamflow, as a natural phenomenon, is continuous in time and so are the meteorological variables which influence its variability. In practice, it can be of interest to forecast the whole flow curve instead of points (daily or hourly). To this end, this paper introduces the functional linear models and adapts it to hydrological forecasting. More precisely, functional linear models are regression models based on curves instead of single values. They allow to consider the whole process instead of a limited number of time points or features. We apply these models to analyse the flow volume and the whole streamflow curve during a given period by using precipitations curves. The functional model is shown to lead to encouraging results. The potential of functional linear models to detect special features that would have been hard to see otherwise is pointed out. The functional model is also compared to the artificial neural network approach and the advantages and disadvantages of both models are discussed. Finally, future research directions involving the functional model in hydrology are presented.

  16. Phantosmia as a meteorological forecaster

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aiello, S. R.; Hirsch, A. R.

    2013-09-01

    In normosmics, olfactory ability has been found to vary with ambient humidity, barometric pressure, and season. While hallucinated sensations of phantom pain associated with changes in weather have been described, a linkage to chemosensory hallucinations has heretofore not been reported. A 64-year-old white male with Parkinson's disease presents with 5 years of phantosmia of a smoky burnt wood which changed to onion-gas and then to a noxious skunk-onion excrement odor. Absent upon waking it increases over the day and persists for hours. When severe, there appears a phantom taste with the same qualities as the odor. It is exacerbated by factors that manipulate intranasal pressure, such as coughing. When eating or sniffing, the actual flavors replace the phantosmia. Since onset, he noted the intensity and frequency of the phantosmia forecasted the weather. Two to 3 h before a storm, the phantosmia intensifies from a level 0 to a 7-10, which persists through the entire thunderstorm. Twenty years prior, he reported the ability to forecast the weather, based on pain in a torn meniscus, which vanished after surgical repair. Extensive olfactory testing demonstrates underlying hyposmia. Possible mechanisms for such chemosensory-meteorological linkage includes: air pressure induced synesthesia, disinhibition of spontaneous olfactory discharge, exacerbation of ectopic discharge, affect mediated somatic sensory amplification, and misattribution error with expectation and recall bias. This is the first reported case of weather-induced exacerbation of phantosmia. Further investigation of the connection between chemosensory complaints and ambient weather is warranted.

  17. Modeled Forecasts of Dengue Fever in San Juan, Puerto Rico Using NASA Satellite Enhanced Weather Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morin, C.; Quattrochi, D. A.; Zavodsky, B.; Case, J.

    2015-12-01

    Dengue fever (DF) is an important mosquito transmitted disease that is strongly influenced by meteorological and environmental conditions. Recent research has focused on forecasting DF case numbers based on meteorological data. However, these forecasting tools have generally relied on empirical models that require long DF time series to train. Additionally, their accuracy has been tested retrospectively, using past meteorological data. Consequently, the operational utility of the forecasts are still in question because the error associated with weather and climate forecasts are not reflected in the results. Using up-to-date weekly dengue case numbers for model parameterization and weather forecast data as meteorological input, we produced weekly forecasts of DF cases in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Each week, the past weeks' case counts were used to re-parameterize a process-based DF model driven with updated weather forecast data to generate forecasts of DF case numbers. Real-time weather forecast data was produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) system enhanced using additional high-resolution NASA satellite data. This methodology was conducted in a weekly iterative process with each DF forecast being evaluated using county-level DF cases reported by the Puerto Rico Department of Health. The one week DF forecasts were accurate especially considering the two sources of model error. First, weather forecasts were sometimes inaccurate and generally produced lower than observed temperatures. Second, the DF model was often overly influenced by the previous weeks DF case numbers, though this phenomenon could be lessened by increasing the number of simulations included in the forecast. Although these results are promising, we would like to develop a methodology to produce longer range forecasts so that public health workers can better prepare for dengue epidemics.

  18. Conditional Monthly Weather Resampling Procedure for Operational Seasonal Water Resources Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beckers, J.; Weerts, A.; Tijdeman, E.; Welles, E.; McManamon, A.

    2013-12-01

    To provide reliable and accurate seasonal streamflow forecasts for water resources management several operational hydrologic agencies and hydropower companies around the world use the Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) procedure. The ESP in its original implementation does not accommodate for any additional information that the forecaster may have about expected deviations from climatology in the near future. Several attempts have been conducted to improve the skill of the ESP forecast, especially for areas which are affected by teleconnetions (e,g. ENSO, PDO) via selection (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 1999) or weighting schemes (Werner et al., 2004; Wood and Lettenmaier, 2006; Najafi et al., 2012). A disadvantage of such schemes is that they lead to a reduction of the signal to noise ratio of the probabilistic forecast. To overcome this, we propose a resampling method conditional on climate indices to generate meteorological time series to be used in the ESP. The method can be used to generate a large number of meteorological ensemble members in order to improve the statistical properties of the ensemble. The effectiveness of the method was demonstrated in a real-time operational hydrologic seasonal forecasts system for the Columbia River basin operated by the Bonneville Power Administration. The forecast skill of the k-nn resampler was tested against the original ESP for three basins at the long-range seasonal time scale. The BSS and CRPSS were used to compare the results to those of the original ESP method. Positive forecast skill scores were found for the resampler method conditioned on different indices for the prediction of spring peak flows in the Dworshak and Hungry Horse basin. For the Libby Dam basin however, no improvement of skill was found. The proposed resampling method is a promising practical approach that can add skill to ESP forecasts at the seasonal time scale. Further improvement is possible by fine tuning the method and selecting the most

  19. Creating a Standard Set of Metrics to Assess Accuracy of Solar Forecasts: Preliminary Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banunarayanan, V.; Brockway, A.; Marquis, M.; Haupt, S. E.; Brown, B.; Fowler, T.; Jensen, T.; Hamann, H.; Lu, S.; Hodge, B.; Zhang, J.; Florita, A.

    2013-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) SunShot Initiative, launched in 2011, seeks to reduce the cost of solar energy systems by 75% from 2010 to 2020. In support of the SunShot Initiative, the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) is partnering with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and solar energy stakeholders to improve solar forecasting. Through a funding opportunity announcement issued in the April, 2012, DOE is funding two teams - led by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and by IBM - to perform three key activities in order to improve solar forecasts. The teams will: (1) With DOE and NOAA's leadership and significant stakeholder input, develop a standardized set of metrics to evaluate forecast accuracy, and determine the baseline and target values for these metrics; (2) Conduct research that yields a transformational improvement in weather models and methods for forecasting solar irradiance and power; and (3) Incorporate solar forecasts into the system operations of the electric power grid, and evaluate the impact of forecast accuracy on the economics and reliability of operations using the defined, standard metrics. This paper will present preliminary results on the first activity: the development of a standardized set of metrics, baselines and target values. The results will include a proposed framework for metrics development, key categories of metrics, descriptions of each of the proposed set of specific metrics to measure forecast accuracy, feedback gathered from a range of stakeholders on the metrics, and processes to determine baselines and target values for each metric. The paper will also analyze the temporal and spatial resolutions under which these metrics would apply, and conclude with a summary of the work in progress on solar forecasting activities funded by DOE.

  20. Verification of Advances in a Coupled Snow-runoff Modeling Framework for Operational Streamflow Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barik, M. G.; Hogue, T. S.; Franz, K. J.; He, M.

    2011-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) issue hydrologic forecasts related to flood events, reservoir operations for water supply, streamflow regulation, and recreation on the nation's streams and rivers. The RFCs use the National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) for streamflow forecasting which relies on a coupled snow model (i.e. SNOW17) and rainfall-runoff model (i.e. SAC-SMA) in snow-dominated regions of the US. Errors arise in various steps of the forecasting system from input data, model structure, model parameters, and initial states. The goal of the current study is to undertake verification of potential improvements in the SNOW17-SAC-SMA modeling framework developed for operational streamflow forecasts. We undertake verification for a range of parameters sets (i.e. RFC, DREAM (Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis)) as well as a data assimilation (DA) framework developed for the coupled models. Verification is also undertaken for various initial conditions to observe the influence of variability in initial conditions on the forecast. The study basin is the North Fork America River Basin (NFARB) located on the western side of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in northern California. Hindcasts are verified using both deterministic (i.e. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency, root mean square error, and joint distribution) and probabilistic (i.e. reliability diagram, discrimination diagram, containing ratio, and Quantile plots) statistics. Our presentation includes comparison of the performance of different optimized parameters and the DA framework as well as assessment of the impact associated with the initial conditions used for streamflow forecasts for the NFARB.

  1. Some Initiatives in a Business Forecasting Course

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chu, Singfat

    2007-01-01

    The paper reports some initiatives to freshen up the typical undergraduate business forecasting course. These include (1) students doing research and presentations on contemporary tools and industry practices such as neural networks and collaborative forecasting (2) insertion of Logistic Regression in the curriculum (3) productive use of applets…

  2. Flood Forecasting in Wales: Challenges and Solutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    How, Andrew; Williams, Christopher

    2015-04-01

    With steep, fast-responding river catchments, exposed coastal reaches with large tidal ranges and large population densities in some of the most at-risk areas; flood forecasting in Wales presents many varied challenges. Utilising advances in computing power and learning from best practice within the United Kingdom and abroad have seen significant improvements in recent years - however, many challenges still remain. Developments in computing and increased processing power comes with a significant price tag; greater numbers of data sources and ensemble feeds brings a better understanding of uncertainty but the wealth of data needs careful management to ensure a clear message of risk is disseminated; new modelling techniques utilise better and faster computation, but lack the history of record and experience gained from the continued use of more established forecasting models. As a flood forecasting team we work to develop coastal and fluvial forecasting models, set them up for operational use and manage the duty role that runs the models in real time. An overview of our current operational flood forecasting system will be presented, along with a discussion on some of the solutions we have in place to address the challenges we face. These include: • real-time updating of fluvial models • rainfall forecasting verification • ensemble forecast data • longer range forecast data • contingency models • offshore to nearshore wave transformation • calculation of wave overtopping

  3. Forecasting Popularity of Videos Using Social Media

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Jie; van der Schaar, Mihaela; Liu, Jiangchuan; Li, Haitao

    2015-03-01

    This paper presents a systematic online prediction method (Social-Forecast) that is capable to accurately forecast the popularity of videos promoted by social media. Social-Forecast explicitly considers the dynamically changing and evolving propagation patterns of videos in social media when making popularity forecasts, thereby being situation and context aware. Social-Forecast aims to maximize the forecast reward, which is defined as a tradeoff between the popularity prediction accuracy and the timeliness with which a prediction is issued. The forecasting is performed online and requires no training phase or a priori knowledge. We analytically bound the prediction performance loss of Social-Forecast as compared to that obtained by an omniscient oracle and prove that the bound is sublinear in the number of video arrivals, thereby guaranteeing its short-term performance as well as its asymptotic convergence to the optimal performance. In addition, we conduct extensive experiments using real-world data traces collected from the videos shared in RenRen, one of the largest online social networks in China. These experiments show that our proposed method outperforms existing view-based approaches for popularity prediction (which are not context-aware) by more than 30% in terms of prediction rewards.

  4. Climate forecasts for corn producer decision making

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Corn is the most widely grown crop in the Americas, with annual production in the United States of approximately 332 million metric tons. Improved climate forecasts, together with climate-related decision tools for corn producers based on these improved forecasts, could substantially reduce uncertai...

  5. Intermediate range forecasting - observational requirements and techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayden, Christopher M.

    1992-07-01

    The 1990s will witness a significant increase in meteorological observations, both traditional and innovative. Numerical weather forecast models will improve in terms of scale definition and physics. The role the observations, especially those from space, may play in improving the intermediater range forecast is presented. The greatest challenge is to insure that the modeler and the observationalist exploit their opportunities together.

  6. Resources and Long-Range Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Waldo E.

    1973-01-01

    The author argues that forecasts of quick depletion of resources in the environment as a result of overpopulation and increased usage may not be free from error. Ignorance still exists in understanding the recovery mechanisms of nature. Long-range forecasts are likely to be wrong in such situations. (PS)

  7. Chesapeake Bay hypoxic volume forecasts and results

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scavia, Donald; Evans, Mary Anne

    2013-01-01

    The 2013 Forecast - Given the average Jan-May 2013 total nitrogen load of 162,028 kg/day, this summer’s hypoxia volume forecast is 6.1 km3, slightly smaller than average size for the period of record and almost the same as 2012. The late July 2013 measured volume was 6.92 km3.

  8. Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mallet, Vivien; Stoltz, Gilles; Mauricette, Boris

    2009-03-01

    We apply machine learning algorithms to perform sequential aggregation of ozone forecasts. The latter rely on a multimodel ensemble built for ozone forecasting with the modeling system Polyphemus. The ensemble simulations are obtained by changes in the physical parameterizations, the numerical schemes, and the input data to the models. The simulations are carried out for summer 2001 over western Europe in order to forecast ozone daily peaks and ozone hourly concentrations. On the basis of past observations and past model forecasts, the learning algorithms produce a weight for each model. A convex or linear combination of the model forecasts is then formed with these weights. This process is repeated for each round of forecasting and is therefore called sequential aggregation. The aggregated forecasts demonstrate good results; for instance, they always show better performance than the best model in the ensemble and they even compete against the best constant linear combination. In addition, the machine learning algorithms come with theoretical guarantees with respect to their performance, that hold for all possible sequences of observations, even nonstochastic ones. Our study also demonstrates the robustness of the methods. We therefore conclude that these aggregation methods are very relevant for operational forecasts.

  9. Techniques for Forecasting Air Passenger Traffic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taneja, N.

    1972-01-01

    The basic techniques of forecasting the air passenger traffic are outlined. These techniques can be broadly classified into four categories: judgmental, time-series analysis, market analysis and analytical. The differences between these methods exist, in part, due to the degree of formalization of the forecasting procedure. Emphasis is placed on describing the analytical method.

  10. Forecasting Enrollments with Fuzzy Time Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Song, Qiang; Chissom, Brad S.

    The concept of fuzzy time series is introduced and used to forecast the enrollment of a university. Fuzzy time series, an aspect of fuzzy set theory, forecasts enrollment using a first-order time-invariant model. To evaluate the model, the conventional linear regression technique is applied and the predicted values obtained are compared to the…

  11. Analog forecasting with dynamics-adapted kernels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Zhizhen; Giannakis, Dimitrios

    2016-09-01

    Analog forecasting is a nonparametric technique introduced by Lorenz in 1969 which predicts the evolution of states of a dynamical system (or observables defined on the states) by following the evolution of the sample in a historical record of observations which most closely resembles the current initial data. Here, we introduce a suite of forecasting methods which improve traditional analog forecasting by combining ideas from kernel methods developed in harmonic analysis and machine learning and state-space reconstruction for dynamical systems. A key ingredient of our approach is to replace single-analog forecasting with weighted ensembles of analogs constructed using local similarity kernels. The kernels used here employ a number of dynamics-dependent features designed to improve forecast skill, including Takens’ delay-coordinate maps (to recover information in the initial data lost through partial observations) and a directional dependence on the dynamical vector field generating the data. Mathematically, our approach is closely related to kernel methods for out-of-sample extension of functions, and we discuss alternative strategies based on the Nyström method and the multiscale Laplacian pyramids technique. We illustrate these techniques in applications to forecasting in a low-order deterministic model for atmospheric dynamics with chaotic metastability, and interannual-scale forecasting in the North Pacific sector of a comprehensive climate model. We find that forecasts based on kernel-weighted ensembles have significantly higher skill than the conventional approach following a single analog.

  12. Streamflow Ensemble Generation using Climate Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watkins, D. W.; O'Connell, S.; Wei, W.; Nykanen, D.; Mahmoud, M.

    2002-12-01

    Although significant progress has been made in understanding the correlation between large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and regional streamflow anomalies, there is a general perception that seasonal climate forecasts are not being used to the fullest extent possible for optimal water resources management. Possible contributing factors are limited knowledge and understanding of climate processes and prediction capabilities, noise in climate signals and inaccuracies in forecasts, and hesitancy on the part of water managers to apply new information or methods that could expose them to greater liability. This work involves a decision support model based on streamflow ensembles developed for the Lower Colorado River Authority in Central Texas. Predicative skill is added to ensemble forecasts that are based on climatology by conditioning the ensembles on observable climate indicators, including streamflow (persistence), soil moisture, land surface temperatures, and large-scale recurrent patterns such as the El Ni¤o-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation. A Bayesian procedure for updating ensemble probabilities is outlined, and various skill scores are reviewed for evaluating forecast performance. Verification of the ensemble forecasts using a resampling procedure indicates a small but potentially significant improvement in forecast skill that could be exploited in seasonal water management decisions. The ultimate goal of this work will be explicit incorporation of climate forecasts in reservoir operating rules and estimation of the value of the forecasts.

  13. School Science Inspired by Improving Weather Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reid, Heather; Renfrew, Ian A.; Vaughan, Geraint

    2014-01-01

    High winds and heavy rain are regular features of the British weather, and forecasting these events accurately is a major priority for the Met Office and other forecast providers. This is the challenge facing DIAMET, a project involving university groups from Manchester, Leeds, Reading, and East Anglia, together with the Met Office. DIAMET is part…

  14. Why preferring parametric forecasting to nonparametric methods?

    PubMed

    Jabot, Franck

    2015-05-01

    A recent series of papers by Charles T. Perretti and collaborators have shown that nonparametric forecasting methods can outperform parametric methods in noisy nonlinear systems. Such a situation can arise because of two main reasons: the instability of parametric inference procedures in chaotic systems which can lead to biased parameter estimates, and the discrepancy between the real system dynamics and the modeled one, a problem that Perretti and collaborators call "the true model myth". Should ecologists go on using the demanding parametric machinery when trying to forecast the dynamics of complex ecosystems? Or should they rely on the elegant nonparametric approach that appears so promising? It will be here argued that ecological forecasting based on parametric models presents two key comparative advantages over nonparametric approaches. First, the likelihood of parametric forecasting failure can be diagnosed thanks to simple Bayesian model checking procedures. Second, when parametric forecasting is diagnosed to be reliable, forecasting uncertainty can be estimated on virtual data generated with the fitted to data parametric model. In contrast, nonparametric techniques provide forecasts with unknown reliability. This argumentation is illustrated with the simple theta-logistic model that was previously used by Perretti and collaborators to make their point. It should convince ecologists to stick to standard parametric approaches, until methods have been developed to assess the reliability of nonparametric forecasting.

  15. Solar power deployment: Forecasting and planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alanazi, Mohana

    The rapid growth of Photovoltaic (PV) technology has been very visible over the past decade. Recently, the penetration of PV plants to the existing grid has significantly increased. Such increase in the integration of solar energy has brought attention to the solar irradiance forecasting. This thesis presents a thorough research of PV technology, how solar power can be forecasted, and PV planning under uncertainty. Over the last decade, the PV was one of the fastest growing renewable energy technologies. However, the PV system output varies based on weather conditions. Due to the variability and the uncertainty of solar power, the integration of the electricity generated by PV system is considered one of the challenges that have confronted the PV system. This thesis proposes a new forecasting method to reduce the uncertainty of the PV output so the power operator will be able to accommodate its variability. The new forecasting method proposes different processes to be undertaken before the data is fed to the forecasting model. The method converts the data sets included in the forecasting from non-stationary data to a stationary data by applying different processes including: removing the offset, removing night time solar values, and normalization. The new forecasting method aims to reduce the forecasting error and analyzes the error effect on the long term planning through calculating the payback period considering different errors.

  16. Evaluation and first forecasts of the German Climate Forecast System 1 (GCFS1)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fröhlich, Kristina; Baehr, Johanna; Müller, Wolfgang; Bunzel, Felix; Pohlmann, Holger; Dobrynin, Mikhail

    2016-04-01

    We present the near-operational seasonal forecast system GCFS1 (German Climate Forecast System version 1), based on the CMIP5 version of the global coupled climate model MPI-ESM-LR. For GCFS1 we also present a detailed assessment on the predictive skill of the model. GCFS1 has been developed in cooperation between the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, University of Hamburg and German Meteorological Service (DWD), the forecasts are conducted by DWD. The system is running at ECMWF with a re-forecast ensemble of 15 member and a forecast ensemble of 30 member. The re-forecasts are initialised with full field nudging in the atmosphere (using ERA Interim), in the ocean (using ORAS4) and in the sea-ice component (using NSIDC sea-ice concentration). For the initialization of the forecasts analyses from the ECMWF NWP model and recent ORAS4 analyses are taken. The ensemble perturbations are, for both re-forecasts and forecasts, generated through bred vectors in the ocean which provide initial perturbations for the ensemble in combination with simple physics perturbations in the atmosphere. Evaluation of the re-forecasted climatologies will be presented for different variables, start dates and regions. The first winter forecast during the strong El Niño phase is also subject of evaluation.

  17. Monthly forecasting of agricultural pests in Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirschi, M.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Samietz, J.; Calanca, P.; Weigel, A. P.; Fischer, A. M.; Rotach, M. W.

    2012-04-01

    Given the repercussions of pests and diseases on agricultural production, detailed forecasting tools have been developed to simulate the degree of infestation depending on actual weather conditions. The life cycle of pests is most successfully predicted if the micro-climate of the immediate environment (habitat) of the causative organisms can be simulated. Sub-seasonal pest forecasts therefore require weather information for the relevant habitats and the appropriate time scale. The pest forecasting system SOPRA (www.sopra.info) currently in operation in Switzerland relies on such detailed weather information, using hourly weather observations up to the day the forecast is issued, but only a climatology for the forecasting period. Here, we aim at improving the skill of SOPRA forecasts by transforming the weekly information provided by ECMWF monthly forecasts (MOFCs) into hourly weather series as required for the prediction of upcoming life phases of the codling moth, the major insect pest in apple orchards worldwide. Due to the probabilistic nature of operational monthly forecasts and the limited spatial and temporal resolution, their information needs to be post-processed for use in a pest model. In this study, we developed a statistical downscaling approach for MOFCs that includes the following steps: (i) application of a stochastic weather generator to generate a large pool of daily weather series consistent with the climate at a specific location, (ii) a subsequent re-sampling of weather series from this pool to optimally represent the evolution of the weekly MOFC anomalies, and (iii) a final extension to hourly weather series suitable for the pest forecasting model. Results show a clear improvement in the forecast skill of occurrences of upcoming codling moth life phases when incorporating MOFCs as compared to the operational pest forecasting system. This is true both in terms of root mean squared errors and of the continuous rank probability scores of the

  18. Demand forecast model based on CRM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Yuancui; Chen, Lichao

    2006-11-01

    With interiorizing day by day management thought that regarding customer as the centre, forecasting customer demand becomes more and more important. In the demand forecast of customer relationship management, the traditional forecast methods have very great limitation because much uncertainty of the demand, these all require new modeling to meet the demands of development. In this paper, the notion is that forecasting the demand according to characteristics of the potential customer, then modeling by it. The model first depicts customer adopting uniform multiple indexes. Secondly, the model acquires characteristic customers on the basis of data warehouse and the technology of data mining. The last, there get the most similar characteristic customer by their comparing and forecast the demands of new customer by the most similar characteristic customer.

  19. PV production forecast in La Reunion Island

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dubus, L.; Leboucher, V.; Garo, M.

    2010-09-01

    Photovoltaic power production is developing quickly in La Reunion (Indian Ocean). In order to integrate this fluctuating energy source into the network, reliable production forecasts are necessary from real time to day+3. Weather forecasts from standard models are in general inadequate, in particular due to too coarse resolution in this complex orography area. In this study, we use observations (Météo-France) and reanalysis (ERAinterim) fields to evaluate the potential predictability of PV production, for individual solar power plants and from the island aggregated point of view. This in particular allows to select the best weather predictors for PV production. The forecast quality of the selected fields was then established, in order to use only the interesting ones. Finally, NWPs are used to estimate which part of PV production predictability is accessible with state of the art weather forecasting models. This leads to requirements on temporal and spatial resolution of NWP to improve the forecast quality.

  20. Uncertainty in dispersion forecasts using meteorological ensembles

    SciTech Connect

    Chin, H N; Leach, M J

    1999-07-12

    The usefulness of dispersion forecasts depends on proper interpretation of results. Understanding the uncertainty in model predictions and the range of possible outcomes is critical for determining the optimal course of action in response to terrorist attacks. One of the objectives for the Modeling and Prediction initiative is creating tools for emergency planning for special events such as the upcoming the Olympics. Meteorological forecasts hours to days in advance are used to estimate the dispersion at the time of the event. However, there is uncertainty in any meteorological forecast, arising from both errors in the data (both initial conditions and boundary conditions) and from errors in the model. We use ensemble forecasts to estimate the uncertainty in the forecasts and the range of possible outcomes.

  1. Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, M. H.; van Andel, S. J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2013-06-01

    The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also started focusing attention on ways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision-makers. Communicating probabilistic forecasts includes preparing tools and products for visualisation, but also requires understanding how decision-makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood forecasts and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision-makers. Answers were collected and analysed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if we indeed make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic forecasts.

  2. Guideline for developing an ozone forecasting program

    SciTech Connect

    Dye, T.S.; MacDonald, C.P.; Anderson, C.B.

    1999-07-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide guidance to help air quality agencies develop, operate, and evaluate ozone forecasting programs. This guidance document provides: Background information about ozone and the weather`s effect on ozone; A list of how ozone forecasts are currently used; A summary and evaluation of methods currently used to forecast ozone; and Steps you can follow to develop and operate an ozone forecasting program. The intended audience of this document is project managers, meteorologists, air quality analysts, and data analysts. Project managers can learn about the level of effort needed to set up and operate a forecasting program. Meteorologists can learn about the various methods to predict ozone and the steps needed to create a program.

  3. Above-normal Atlantic basin hurricane season forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2011-05-01

    Between three and six major hurricanes with winds of 111 miles per hour and greater could whip across the Atlantic basin during what is forecast to be an above-normal 2011 hurricane season, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center (NOAA CPC). Including those, there could be a total of 6-10 hurricanes with winds of 74 miles per hour or greater and 12-18 named storms with winds of 39 miles per hour or greater during the hurricane season, which officially begins on 1 June and lasts for 6 months, NOAA administrator Jane Lubchenco said at a 19 May briefing. There is a 70% likelihood for these ranges occurring, according to NOAA.

  4. Solvent microextraction-flame atomic absorption spectrometry (SME-FAAS) for determination of ultratrace amounts of cadmium in meat and fish samples.

    PubMed

    Goudarzi, Nasser

    2009-02-11

    A simple, low cost and highly sensitive method based on solvent microextraction (SME) for separation/preconcentration and flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS) was proposed for the determination of ultratrace amounts of cadmium in meat and fish samples. The analytical procedure involved the formation of a hydrophobic complex by mixing the analyte solution with an ammonium pyrrolidinedithiocarbamate (APDC) solution. In suitable conditions, the complex of cadmium-APDC entered the micro organic phase, and thus, separation of the analyte from the matrix was achieved. Under optimal chemical and instrumental conditions, a detection limit (3 sigma) of 0.8 ng L(-1) and an enrichment factor of 93 were achieved. The relative standard deviation for the method was found to be 2.2% for Cd. The interference effects of some anions and cations were also investigated. The developed method has been applied to the determination of trace Cd in meat and fish samples. PMID:19138082

  5. Determination of cadmium in alcohol fuel using Moringa oleifera seeds as a biosorbent in an on-line system coupled to FAAS.

    PubMed

    Alves, Vanessa Nunes; Mosquetta, Rafael; Coelho, Nívia Maria Melo; Bianchin, Joyce Nunes; Di Pietro Roux, Kalya Cravo; Martendal, Edmar; Carasek, Eduardo

    2010-01-15

    In this study a new method for determination of cadmium in alcohol fuel using Moringa oleifera seeds as a biosorbent in an on-line preconcentration system coupled to flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS) was developed. Flow and chemical variables of the proposed system were optimized through multivariate designs. The limit of detection for cadmium was 5.50microg L(-1) and the precision was below 2.3% (35.0microg L(-1), n=9). The analytical curve was linear from 5 to 150microg L(-1), with a correlation coefficient of 0.9993. The developed method was successfully applied to spiked alcohol fuel, and accuracy was assessed through recovery tests, with recovery ranging from 97.50 to 100%. PMID:20006064

  6. Application of High Resolution-Continuum Source Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (HR-CS FAAS): determination of trace elements in tea and tisanes.

    PubMed

    Paz-Rodríguez, Beatriz; Domínguez-González, María Raquel; Aboal-Somoza, Manuel; Bermejo-Barrera, Pilar

    2015-03-01

    A new application of HR-CS FAAS (High Resolution-Continuum Source Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrometry) has been developed for the determination of several trace elements (Ca, Co, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Na and Zn) in infusions made from tea, rooibos and tea with seaweed samples. The proposed methods are fast, inexpensive and show good performances: the mean analytical recovery was approximately 100%. The mean limit of detection was 29.4 μg/l, and the mean limit of quantification was 98.0 μg/l (both limits refer to the brewed samples). Due to the matrix effect observed, the standard addition method had to be applied. Preliminary classification (based on metal contents) using chemometric techniques such as PCA (Principal Component Analysis) and CA (Cluster Analysis), was successful for infusions made from rooibos and tea with seaweed, but inconclusive for black and green teas.

  7. Application of High Resolution-Continuum Source Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (HR-CS FAAS): determination of trace elements in tea and tisanes.

    PubMed

    Paz-Rodríguez, Beatriz; Domínguez-González, María Raquel; Aboal-Somoza, Manuel; Bermejo-Barrera, Pilar

    2015-03-01

    A new application of HR-CS FAAS (High Resolution-Continuum Source Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrometry) has been developed for the determination of several trace elements (Ca, Co, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Na and Zn) in infusions made from tea, rooibos and tea with seaweed samples. The proposed methods are fast, inexpensive and show good performances: the mean analytical recovery was approximately 100%. The mean limit of detection was 29.4 μg/l, and the mean limit of quantification was 98.0 μg/l (both limits refer to the brewed samples). Due to the matrix effect observed, the standard addition method had to be applied. Preliminary classification (based on metal contents) using chemometric techniques such as PCA (Principal Component Analysis) and CA (Cluster Analysis), was successful for infusions made from rooibos and tea with seaweed, but inconclusive for black and green teas. PMID:25306375

  8. [FI-KR non-separated method coupled with FAAS for the determination of Fe(II) and Fe(III) in water].

    PubMed

    Wang, Zhong-yuan; Zhang, Hong-kang; Fang, Hong-da; Su, Yao-dong; Mittal, Gauri S

    2012-03-01

    An FI-KR non-separated method coupled with FAAS for the determination of Fe(II) and Fe(III) was developed. With 60 s of sampling at a flow rate of 6.0 mL x min(-1), EF of 41 for Fe(III) and 9 for Fe(II) were obtained. The precision (RSD, n = 11) for Fe(III) and Fe(II) was 2.3% and 3.1% at the 0.04 mg x L(-1) level respectively. When 0.1 per thousand phi TEA was used as masking reagent, the recovery rate for Fe(III) and Fe(II) was from 97% to 101% and from 96% to 100% respectively.

  9. Space Weather Forecasting: An Enigma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sojka, J. J.

    2012-12-01

    -pipe" disciplines. The perceived progress in space weather understanding differs significantly depending upon which community (scientific, technology, forecaster, society) is addressing the question. Even more divergent are these thoughts when the question is how valuable is the scientific capability of forecasting space weather. This talk will discuss present day as well as future potential for forecasting space weather for a few selected examples. The author will attempt to straddle the divergent community opinions.

  10. Wind speed forecasting for wind energy applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Hong

    With more wind energy being integrated into our grid systems, forecasting wind energy has become a necessity for all market participants. Recognizing the market demands, a physical approach to site-specific hub-height wind speed forecasting system has been developed. This system is driven by the outputs from the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. A simple interpolation approach benchmarks the forecasting accuracy inherited from GEM. Local, site specific winds are affected on a local scale by a variety of factors including representation of the land surface and local boundary-layer process over heterogeneous terrain which have been a continuing challenge in NWP models like GEM with typical horizontal resolution of order 15-km. In order to resolve these small scale effects, a wind energy industry standard model, WAsP, is coupled with GEM to improve the forecast. Coupling the WAsP model with GEM improves the overall forecasts, but remains unsatisfactory for forecasting winds with abrupt surface condition changes. Subsequently in this study, a new coupler that uses a 2-D RANS model of boundary-layer flow over surface condition changes with improved physics has been developed to further improve the forecasts when winds coming from a water surface to land experience abrupt changes in surface conditions. It has been demonstrated that using vertically averaged wind speeds to represent geostrophic winds for input into the micro-scale models could reduce forecast errors. The hub-height wind speed forecasts could be further improved using a linear MOS approach. The forecasting system has been evaluated, using a wind energy standard evaluation matrix, against data from an 80-m mast located near the north shore of Lake Erie. Coupling with GEM-LAM and a power conversion model using a theoretical power curve have also been investigated. For hub-height wind speeds GEM appears to perform better with a 15-Ian grid than the high resolution GEM-2.5Ian version at the

  11. Determination of heavy metals at sub-ppm levels in seawater and dialysis solutions by FAAS after tetrakis(pyridine)-nickel(II)bis(thiocyanate) coprecipitation.

    PubMed

    Sahin, Uğur; Kartal, Senol; Ulgen, Ahmet

    2008-06-01

    A coprecipitation method has been developed for the determination of Cr(III), Mn(II), Fe(III), Co(II), Cu(II), Cd(II) and Pb(II) ions in aqueous samples by flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS) with the combination of pyridine, nickel(II) as a carrier element and potassium thiocyanate as an auxiliary complexing agent. The obtained coprecipitates were dissolved with nitric acid and measured by FAAS. The coprecipitation conditions, such as the effect of the pH, amounts of nickel, pyridine and potassium thiocyanate, sample volume, and the standing time of the precipitate formation were examined in detail. It was found that the metal ions studied were quantitatively coprecipitated with tetrakis(pyridine)-nickel(II)bis(thiocyanate) precipitate (TP-Ni-BT) in the pH range of 9.0 - 10.5. The reliability of the results was evaluated by recovery tests, using synthetic seawater solutions spiked with the analyte metal ions. The obtained recoveries ranged from 96 to 101% for all of the metal ions investigated. The proposed method was validated by analyses of two certified reference materials (NIST SRM 2711 Montana soil and HPS Certified Waste Water Trace Metals Lot #D532205). It was also successfully applied to seawater and dialysis solution samples. The detection limits (n = 25, 3s) were in the range of 0.01-2.44 microg l(-1) for the studied elements and the relative standard deviations were < or =6%, which indicated that this method could fully satisfy the requirements for analysis of such samples as seawater and dialysis solution having high salt contents. PMID:18544864

  12. Construction Safety Forecast for ITER

    SciTech Connect

    cadwallader, lee charles

    2006-11-01

    The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project is poised to begin its construction activity. This paper gives an estimate of construction safety as if the experiment was being built in the United States. This estimate of construction injuries and potential fatalities serves as a useful forecast of what can be expected for construction of such a major facility in any country. These data should be considered by the ITER International Team as it plans for safety during the construction phase. Based on average U.S. construction rates, ITER may expect a lost workday case rate of < 4.0 and a fatality count of 0.5 to 0.9 persons per year.

  13. Real-time flood forecasting

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lai, C.; Tsay, T.-K.; Chien, C.-H.; Wu, I.-L.

    2009-01-01

    Researchers at the Hydroinformatic Research and Development Team (HIRDT) of the National Taiwan University undertook a project to create a real time flood forecasting model, with an aim to predict the current in the Tamsui River Basin. The model was designed based on deterministic approach with mathematic modeling of complex phenomenon, and specific parameter values operated to produce a discrete result. The project also devised a rainfall-stage model that relates the rate of rainfall upland directly to the change of the state of river, and is further related to another typhoon-rainfall model. The geographic information system (GIS) data, based on precise contour model of the terrain, estimate the regions that were perilous to flooding. The HIRDT, in response to the project's progress, also devoted their application of a deterministic model to unsteady flow of thermodynamics to help predict river authorities issue timely warnings and take other emergency measures.

  14. Decision support for financial forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Jairam, B.N.; Morris, J.D.; Emrich, M.L.; Hardee, H.K.

    1988-10-01

    A primary mission of the Budget Management Division of the Air Force is fiscal analysis. This involves formulating, justifying, and tracking financial data during budget preparation and execution. An essential requirement of this process is the ready availability and easy manipulation of past and current budget data. This necessitates the decentralization of the data. A prototypical system, BAFS (Budget Analysis and Forecasting System), that provides such a capability is presented. In its current state, the system is designed to be a decision support tool. A brief report of the budget decisions and activities is presented. The system structure and its major components are discussed. An insight into the implementation strategies and the tool used is provided. The paper concludes with a discussion of future enhancements and the system's evolution into an expert system. 4 refs., 3 figs.

  15. Challenges in Forecasting SEP Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luhmann, Janet; Mays, M. Leila; Odstrcil, Dusan; Bain, Hazel; Li, Yan; Leske, Richard; Cohen, Christina

    2015-04-01

    A long-standing desire of space weather prediction providers has been the ability to forecast SEP (Solar Energetic Particle) events as a part of their offerings. SEPs can have deleterious effects on the space environment and space hardware, that also impact human exploration missions. Developments of observationally driven, physics based models in the last solar cycle have made it possible to use solar magnetograms and coronagraph images to simulate, up to a month in advance for solar wind structure, and up to days in advance for interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) driven shocks, time series of upstream parameters similar in content to those obtained by L1 spacecraft. However, SEPs have been missing from these predictions. Because SEP event modeling requires different physical considerations it has typically been approached with cosmic ray transport concepts and treatments. However, many extra complications arise because of the moving, evolving nature of the ICME shock source of the largest events. In general, a realistic SEP event model for these so-called 'gradual' events requires an accurate description of the time-dependent 3D heliosphere as an underlying framework. We describe some applications of an approach to SEP event simulations that uses the widely-applied ENLIL heliospheric model to describe both underlying solar wind and ICME shock characteristics. Experimentation with this set-up illustrates the importance of knowing the shock connectivity to the observer, and of the need to include even non-observer-impacting CMEs in the heliospheric model. It also provides a possible path forward toward the goal of having routine SEP forecasts together with the other heliospheric predictions.

  16. MSSM forecast for the LHC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cabrera, Maria Eugenia; Casas, J. Alberto; de Austri, Roberto Ruiz

    2010-05-01

    We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of M Z is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on e + e - data) is considered, the preferred region (for μ > 0) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative- μ possibilities.

  17. Phantosmia as a meteorological forecaster.

    PubMed

    Aiello, S R; Hirsch, A R

    2013-09-01

    In normosmics, olfactory ability has been found to vary with ambient humidity, barometric pressure, and season. While hallucinated sensations of phantom pain associated with changes in weather have been described, a linkage to chemosensory hallucinations has heretofore not been reported. A 64-year-old white male with Parkinson's disease presents with 5 years of phantosmia of a smoky burnt wood which changed to onion-gas and then to a noxious skunk-onion excrement odor. Absent upon waking it increases over the day and persists for hours. When severe, there appears a phantom taste with the same qualities as the odor. It is exacerbated by factors that manipulate intranasal pressure, such as coughing. When eating or sniffing, the actual flavors replace the phantosmia. Since onset, he noted the intensity and frequency of the phantosmia forecasted the weather. Two to 3 h before a storm, the phantosmia intensifies from a level 0 to a 7-10, which persists through the entire thunderstorm. Twenty years prior, he reported the ability to forecast the weather, based on pain in a torn meniscus, which vanished after surgical repair. Extensive olfactory testing demonstrates underlying hyposmia. Possible mechanisms for such chemosensory-meteorological linkage includes: air pressure induced synesthesia, disinhibition of spontaneous olfactory discharge, exacerbation of ectopic discharge, affect mediated somatic sensory amplification, and misattribution error with expectation and recall bias. This is the first reported case of weather-induced exacerbation of phantosmia. Further investigation of the connection between chemosensory complaints and ambient weather is warranted. PMID:23456373

  18. Phantosmia as a meteorological forecaster.

    PubMed

    Aiello, S R; Hirsch, A R

    2013-09-01

    In normosmics, olfactory ability has been found to vary with ambient humidity, barometric pressure, and season. While hallucinated sensations of phantom pain associated with changes in weather have been described, a linkage to chemosensory hallucinations has heretofore not been reported. A 64-year-old white male with Parkinson's disease presents with 5 years of phantosmia of a smoky burnt wood which changed to onion-gas and then to a noxious skunk-onion excrement odor. Absent upon waking it increases over the day and persists for hours. When severe, there appears a phantom taste with the same qualities as the odor. It is exacerbated by factors that manipulate intranasal pressure, such as coughing. When eating or sniffing, the actual flavors replace the phantosmia. Since onset, he noted the intensity and frequency of the phantosmia forecasted the weather. Two to 3 h before a storm, the phantosmia intensifies from a level 0 to a 7-10, which persists through the entire thunderstorm. Twenty years prior, he reported the ability to forecast the weather, based on pain in a torn meniscus, which vanished after surgical repair. Extensive olfactory testing demonstrates underlying hyposmia. Possible mechanisms for such chemosensory-meteorological linkage includes: air pressure induced synesthesia, disinhibition of spontaneous olfactory discharge, exacerbation of ectopic discharge, affect mediated somatic sensory amplification, and misattribution error with expectation and recall bias. This is the first reported case of weather-induced exacerbation of phantosmia. Further investigation of the connection between chemosensory complaints and ambient weather is warranted.

  19. A study on the estimation and verification of the blended precipitation forecast for hydrological use in Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, H.; Jeong, J.; Nam, K.; Ko, H.; Choi, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Quantitative precipitation forecasts of nowcasting based on the extrapolation of radar and numerical weather prediction models is the crucial information for severe weather such as floods, droughts, debris flows, and water quality, and to determine current and future availability of water resources. Meso-scale models well represent the cumulus convection process and the change of magnitude of precipitation, but need the spin-up time defined as the time needed to reach from the initial non-existent cloud to the actual state of cloud cumulus. The spin-up problem of meso-scale model yields the low skill score within the short range forecast lead time. Nowcasting model including the advection process of the rainfall is one of the alternatives to avoid this problem. The purpose of this study is to produce the optimized quantitative precipitation forecast by blending both the forecasted precipitation of the nowcasting and numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast at catchment scale for hydrometeorological application. Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) have been operating nowcasting models, which are VSRF (Very Short Range Forecast of precipitation) and MAPLE (McGill Algorithm for Precipitation Nowcasting by Lagrangian), and short term forecast model, which are UMRG (Unified Model of Regional Grid) and KWRF (Korean WRF). The blended precipitation forecast are estimated by using a weight scheme based on the long term average value of critical success index of each individual component of the model. The hydrological verification of the blended precipitation forecast has been conducted to 117 mid-watersheds of Korea for summertime in 2011. The performance of the blended precipitation has shown to be better than that individual forecasted precipitation.

  20. Testing the Value of Probability Forecasts for Calibrated Combining

    PubMed Central

    Lahiri, Kajal; Peng, Huaming; Zhao, Yongchen

    2014-01-01

    We combine the probability forecasts of a real GDP decline from the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters, after trimming the forecasts that do not have “value”, as measured by the Kuiper Skill Score and in the sense of Merton (1981). For this purpose, we use a simple test to evaluate the probability forecasts. The proposed test does not require the probabilities to be converted to binary forecasts before testing, and it accommodates serial correlation and skewness in the forecasts. We find that the number of forecasters making valuable forecasts decreases sharply as the horizon increases. The beta-transformed linear pool combination scheme, based on the valuable individual forecasts, is shown to outperform the simple average for all horizons on a number of performance measures, including calibration and sharpness. The test helps to identify the good forecasters ex ante, and therefore contributes to the accuracy of the combined forecasts. PMID:25530646

  1. 47 CFR 52.15 - Central office code administration.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... numbering resource administration guidelines and Commission orders and regulations of 47 CFR chapter I. (e.... (ii) In areas where thousands-block number pooling has been implemented: (A) Reporting carriers that are required to participate in thousands-block number pooling shall report forecast data at...

  2. 47 CFR 52.15 - Central office code administration.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... numbering resource administration guidelines and Commission orders and regulations of 47 CFR chapter I. (e.... (ii) In areas where thousands-block number pooling has been implemented: (A) Reporting carriers that are required to participate in thousands-block number pooling shall report forecast data at...

  3. Performance of aftershock forecasts: problem and formulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, C.; Wu, Z.; Li, L.

    2010-12-01

    WFSD project deals with the problems of earthquake physics, in which one of the important designed aims is the forecast of the on-going aftershock activity of the Wenchuan earthquake, taking the advantage of the fast response to great earthquakes. Correlation between fluid measurements and aftershocks provided heuristic clues to the forecast of aftershocks, invoking the discussion on the performance of such ‘precursory anomalies’, even if in a retrospective perspective. In statistical seismology, one of the critical issues is how to test the statistical significance of an earthquake forecast scheme against real seismic activity. Due to the special characteristics of aftershock series and the feature of aftershock forecasts that it deals with a limited spatial range and specific temporal duration, the test of the performance of aftershock forecasts has to be different from the standard tests for main shock series. In this presentation we address and discuss the possible schemes for testing the performance of aftershock forecasts - a seemingly simple but practically important issue in statistical seismology. As a simple and preliminary approach, we use an alternative form of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) test, as well as other similar tests, considering the properties of aftershock series by using Omori law, ETAS model, and/or CFS calculation. We also discussed the lessons and experiences of the Wenchuan aftershock forecasts, exploring how to make full use of the present knowledge of the regularity of aftershocks to serve the earthquake rescue and relief endeavor as well as the post-earthquake reconstruction.

  4. Urban Air Quality Forecasting in Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavlovic, Radenko; Menard, Sylvain; Cousineau, Sophie; Stroud, Craig; Moran, Michael

    2016-04-01

    Environment and Climate Change Canada has been providing air quality (AQ) forecasts for major Canadian urban centers since 2001. Over this period, the Canadian AQ Forecast Program has expanded and evolved. It currently uses the Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) modelling framework. At the heart of the RAQDPS is the GEM-MACH model, an on-line coupled meteorology‒chemistry model configured for a North American domain with 10 km horizontal grid spacing and 80 vertical levels. A statistical post-processing model (UMOS-AQ) is then applied to the RAQDPS hourly forecasts for locations with AQ monitors to reduce point forecast bias and error. These outputs provide the primary guidance from which operational meteorologists disseminate Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) forecasts to the public for major urban centres across Canada. During the 2015 summer Pan Am and Parapan Am Games, which were held in Ontario, Canada, an experimental version of the RAQDPS at 2.5 km horizontal grid spacing was run for a domain over the greater Toronto area. Currently, there is ongoing research to develop and assess AQ systems run at 1 km resolution. This presentation will show analyses of operational AQ forecast performance for several pollutants over the last few years in major Canadian urban centres such as Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Ottawa, and Calgary. Trends in observed pollution along with short- and long-term development plans for urban AQ forecasting will also be presented.

  5. National Weather Service Forecast Reference Evapotranspiration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Osborne, H. D.; Palmer, C. K.; Krone-Davis, P.; Melton, F. S.; Hobbins, M.

    2013-12-01

    The National Weather Service (NWS), Weather Forecasting Offices (WFOs) are producing daily reference evapotranspiration (ETrc) forecasts or FRET across the Western Region and in other selected locations since 2009, using the Penman - Monteith Reference Evapotranspiration equation for a short canopy (12 cm grasses), adopted by the Environmental Water Resources Institute of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE-EWRI, 2004). The sensitivity of these daily calculations to fluctuations in temperatures, humidity, winds, and sky cover allows forecasters with knowledge of local terrain and weather patterns to better forecast in the ETrc inputs. The daily FRET product then evolved into a suite of products, including a weekly ETrc forecast for better water planning and a tabular point forecast for easy ingest into local water management-models. The ETrc forecast product suite allows water managers, the agricultural community, and the public to make more informed water-use decisions. These products permit operational planning, especially with the impending drought across much of the West. For example, the California Department of Water Resources not only ingests the FRET into their soil moisture models, but uses the FRET calculations when determining the reservoir releases in the Sacramento and American Rivers. We will also focus on the expansion of FRET verification, which compares the daily FRET to the observations of ETo from the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) across California's Central Valley for the 2012 water year.

  6. Tropical ocean initialisation strategies for seasonal forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulholland, David; Haines, Keith

    2016-04-01

    Operational seasonal ENSO forecasts show substantial skill in tropical regions, but are sensitive to the initialisation procedure used in the ocean. Due to errors in wind stress forcing and in modelling the vertical transfer of momentum, a bias correction method is often used during ocean data assimilation in order to assimilate hydrographic data, e.g. from the TOGA/TAO array. While this improves the ocean state, particularly the circulation, during the analysis, it leads to an inconsistency at the beginning of a coupled forecast, since the bias correction term is generally not retained during the forecast itself. We present results from a number of ensemble simulations carried out with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) coupled forecast system, comparing different initialisation strategies for the equatorial ocean. Rapid adjustments in the ocean at the beginning of the forecast are found to induce additional variability in the thermocline. We then show that this spurious variability can be substantially reduced by persisting or more slowly adjusting the bias correction term during the first month, and that this leads to significant improvements in ENSO SST forecast skill, at lead times of 3-7 months. The results highlight the importance of ocean initialisation in maximising the skill of ENSO predictions.

  7. Seasonal hydrological ensemble forecasts over Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Stephens, Elisabeth; Cloke, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    This study investigates the limits of predictability in dynamical seasonal discharge forecasting, in both space and time, over Europe. Seasonal forecasts have an important socioeconomic value. Applications are numerous and cover hydropower management, spring flood prediction, low flow prediction for navigation and agricultural water demands. Additionally, the constant increase in NWP skill for longer lead times and the predicted increase in the intensity and frequency of hydro-meteorological extremes, have amplified the incentive to promote and further improve hydrological forecasts on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. In this study, seasonal hydrological forecasts (SEA), driven by the ECMWF's System 4 in hindcast mode, were analysed against an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) benchmark. The ESP was forced with an ensemble of resampled historical meteorological observations and started with perfect initial conditions. Both forecasts were produced by the LISFLOOD model, run on the pan-European scale with a spatial resolution of 5 by 5 km. The forecasts were issued monthly on a daily time step, from 1990 until the current time, up to a lead time of 7 months. The seasonal discharge forecasts were analysed against the ESP on a catchment scale in terms of their accuracy, skill and sharpness, using a diverse set of verification metrics (e.g. KGE, CRPSS and ROC). Additionally, a reverse-ESP was constructed by forcing the LISFLOOD model with a single perfect meteorological set of observations and initiated from an ensemble of resampled historical initial conditions. The comparison of the ESP with the reverse-ESP approach enabled the identification of the respective contribution of meteorological forcings and hydrologic initial conditions errors to seasonal discharge forecasting uncertainties in Europe. These results could help pinpoint target elements of the forecasting chain which, after being improved, could lead to substantial increase in discharge predictability

  8. Accurate Weather Forecasting for Radio Astronomy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maddalena, Ronald J.

    2010-01-01

    The NRAO Green Bank Telescope routinely observes at wavelengths from 3 mm to 1 m. As with all mm-wave telescopes, observing conditions depend upon the variable atmospheric water content. The site provides over 100 days/yr when opacities are low enough for good observing at 3 mm, but winds on the open-air structure reduce the time suitable for 3-mm observing where pointing is critical. Thus, to maximum productivity the observing wavelength needs to match weather conditions. For 6 years the telescope has used a dynamic scheduling system (recently upgraded; www.gb.nrao.edu/DSS) that requires accurate multi-day forecasts for winds and opacities. Since opacity forecasts are not provided by the National Weather Services (NWS), I have developed an automated system that takes available forecasts, derives forecasted opacities, and deploys the results on the web in user-friendly graphical overviews (www.gb.nrao.edu/ rmaddale/Weather). The system relies on the "North American Mesoscale" models, which are updated by the NWS every 6 hrs, have a 12 km horizontal resolution, 1 hr temporal resolution, run to 84 hrs, and have 60 vertical layers that extend to 20 km. Each forecast consists of a time series of ground conditions, cloud coverage, etc, and, most importantly, temperature, pressure, humidity as a function of height. I use the Liebe's MWP model (Radio Science, 20, 1069, 1985) to determine the absorption in each layer for each hour for 30 observing wavelengths. Radiative transfer provides, for each hour and wavelength, the total opacity and the radio brightness of the atmosphere, which contributes substantially at some wavelengths to Tsys and the observational noise. Comparisons of measured and forecasted Tsys at 22.2 and 44 GHz imply that the forecasted opacities are good to about 0.01 Nepers, which is sufficient for forecasting and accurate calibration. Reliability is high out to 2 days and degrades slowly for longer-range forecasts.

  9. Accuracy analysis of TDRSS demand forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stern, Daniel C.; Levine, Allen J.; Pitt, Karl J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper reviews Space Network (SN) demand forecasting experience over the past 16 years and describes methods used in the forecasts. The paper focuses on the Single Access (SA) service, the most sought-after resource in the Space Network. Of the ten years of actual demand data available, only the last five years (1989 to 1993) were considered predictive due to the extensive impact of the Challenger accident of 1986. NASA's Space Network provides tracking and communications services to user spacecraft such as the Shuttle and the Hubble Space Telescope. Forecasting the customer requirements is essential to planning network resources and to establishing service commitments to future customers. The lead time to procure Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRS's) requires demand forecasts ten years in the future a planning horizon beyond the funding commitments for missions to be supported. The long range forecasts are shown to have had a bias toward underestimation in the 1991 -1992 period. The trend of underestimation can be expected to be replaced by overestimation for a number of years starting with 1998. At that time demand from new missions slated for launch will be larger than the demand from ongoing missions, making the potential for delay the dominant factor. If the new missions appear as scheduled, the forecasts are likely to be moderately underestimated. The SN commitment to meet the negotiated customer's requirements calls for conservatism in the forecasting. Modification of the forecasting procedure to account for a delay bias is, therefore, not advised. Fine tuning the mission model to more accurately reflect the current actual demand is recommended as it may marginally improve the first year forecasting.

  10. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast. Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA's Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  11. Seasonal streamflow forecasting with the global hydrological forecasting system FEWS-World

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Van Beek, L. P.; Winsemius, H.; Bierkens, M. F.

    2011-12-01

    The year-to-year variability of river discharge brings about risks and opportunities in water resources management. Reliable hydrological forecasts and effective communication allow several sectors to make more informed management decisions. In many developing regions of the world, there are no efficient hydrological forecasting systems. For these regions, a global forecasting system which indicates increased probabilities of streamflow excesses or shortages over long lead-times can be of great value. FEWS-World is developed for this purpose. The system incorporates the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB and delivers streamflow forecasts on a global scale. This study investigates the skill and value of FEWS-World. Skill is defined as the ability of the system to forecast discharge extremes; and value is its usefulness for possible users and ultimately for affected populations. Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. The eventual goal is to transfer FEWS-World to operational forecasting mode, where the system will use operational seasonal forecasts from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The results will be disseminated on the internet to provide valuable information for users in data and model-poor regions of the world. The preliminary skill assessment of PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing flow extremes is carried out for a selection of 20 large rivers of the world. The model is run for a historical period, with a meteorological forcing data set based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, and the ERA-40 reanalysis of ECMWF. Model skill in reproducing monthly anomalies as well as floods and droughts is assessed by applying verification measures developed for deterministic meteorological forecasts. The results of this preliminary analysis shows that even where the simulated hydrographs are biased, higher skills can be attained in reproducing monthly

  12. How MAG4 Improves Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David; Khazanov, Igor; Barghouty, Nasser

    2013-01-01

    Dangerous space weather is driven by solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs). Forecasting flares and CMEs is the first step to forecasting either dangerous space weather or All Clear. MAG4 (Magnetogram Forecast), developed originally for NASA/SRAG (Space Radiation Analysis Group), is an automated program that analyzes magnetograms from the HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) instrument on NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory), and automatically converts the rate (or probability) of major flares (M- and X-class), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particle Events.

  13. Hydrocarbon Rocket Technology Impact Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stuber, Eric; Prasadh, Nishant; Edwards, Stephen; Mavris, Dimitri N.

    2012-01-01

    Ever since the Apollo program ended, the development of launch propulsion systems in the US has fallen drastically, with only two new booster engine developments, the SSME and the RS-68, occurring in the past few decades.1 In recent years, however, there has been an increased interest in pursuing more effective launch propulsion technologies in the U.S., exemplified by the NASA Office of the Chief Technologist s inclusion of Launch Propulsion Systems as the first technological area in the Space Technology Roadmaps2. One area of particular interest to both government agencies and commercial entities has been the development of hydrocarbon engines; NASA and the Air Force Research Lab3 have expressed interest in the use of hydrocarbon fuels for their respective SLS Booster and Reusable Booster System concepts, and two major commercially-developed launch vehicles SpaceX s Falcon 9 and Orbital Sciences Antares feature engines that use RP-1 kerosene fuel. Compared to engines powered by liquid hydrogen, hydrocarbon-fueled engines have a greater propellant density (usually resulting in a lighter overall engine), produce greater propulsive force, possess easier fuel handling and loading, and for reusable vehicle concepts can provide a shorter turnaround time between launches. These benefits suggest that a hydrocarbon-fueled launch vehicle would allow for a cheap and frequent means of access to space.1 However, the time and money required for the development of a new engine still presents a major challenge. Long and costly design, development, testing and evaluation (DDT&E) programs underscore the importance of identifying critical technologies and prioritizing investment efforts. Trade studies must be performed on engine concepts examining the affordability, operability, and reliability of each concept, and quantifying the impacts of proposed technologies. These studies can be performed through use of the Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF) method. The Technology Impact

  14. Ninth electric utility forecasting symposium: Proceedings. Forecasting and DSM -- Organizing for success

    SciTech Connect

    1995-05-01

    EPRI and the San Diego Gas and Electric Company (SDG and E) hosted a two-and-one-half day symposium in San Diego, California on September 8--10, 1993. Plenary presentations, topical paper sessions, and demonstrations covered a wide variety of topics, ranging from traditional forecasting topics to the changing nature of customers in the next century. The objectives of the symposium were to: exchange information and ideas about new forecasting methods, tools, and data sources; promote an exchange of views between those who produce forecasts and those who use forecasts; explore the relationship between forecasting and DSM; and discuss possible future trends for the electric utility industry and to consider the future role of forecasting. Selected papers are indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.

  15. Evaluating the Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Data On Convective Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kozlowski, Danielle; Zavodsky, Bradley

    2011-01-01

    The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service (NWS) offices. SPoRT provides real-time NASA products and capabilities to its partners to address specific operational forecast challenges. The mission of SPoRT is to transition observations and research capabilities into operations to help improve short-term weather forecasts on a regional scale. Two areas of focus are data assimilation and modeling, which can to help accomplish SPoRT's programmatic goals of transitioning NASA data to operational users. Forecasting convective weather is one challenge that faces operational forecasters. Current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models that operational forecasters use struggle to properly forecast location, timing, intensity and/or mode of convection. Given the proper atmospheric conditions, convection can lead to severe weather. SPoRT's partners in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have a mission to protect the life and property of American citizens. This mission has been tested as recently as this 2011 severe weather season, which has seen more than 300 fatalities and injuries and total damages exceeding $10 billion. In fact, during the three day period from 25-27 April, 1,265 storms reports (362 tornado reports) were collected making this three day period one of most active in American history. To address the forecast challenge of convective weather, SPoRT produces a real-time NWP model called the SPoRT Weather Research and Forecasting (SPoRT-WRF), which incorporates unique NASA data sets. One of the NASA assets used in this unique model configuration is retrieved profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS).The goal of this project is to determine the impact that these AIRS profiles have on the SPoRT-WRF forecasts by comparing to a current operational model and a control SPoRT-WRF model

  16. Weather forecast needs from the viewpoint of hydrology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Donald M.; Buchanan, Thomas J.

    1980-01-01

    Hydrologists now depend on directly observed data in their forecasting and only infrequently use meteorological forecasts. Case studies show how reliable meteorological forecasts could be beneficial in flood and drought situations. Hydrologists need meteorological forecasts that recognize spatial variability, that are unbiased, and that have a specified degree of uncertainty. (USGS)

  17. Forecast of natural aquifer discharge using a data-driven, statistical approach.

    PubMed

    Boggs, Kevin G; Van Kirk, Rob; Johnson, Gary S; Fairley, Jerry P

    2014-01-01

    In the Western United States, demand for water is often out of balance with limited water supplies. This has led to extensive water rights conflict and litigation. A tool that can reliably forecast natural aquifer discharge months ahead of peak water demand could help water practitioners and managers by providing advanced knowledge of potential water-right mitigation requirements. The timing and magnitude of natural aquifer discharge from the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer (ESPA) in southern Idaho is accurately forecast 4 months ahead of the peak water demand, which occurs annually in July. An ARIMA time-series model with exogenous predictors (ARIMAX model) was used to develop the forecast. The ARIMAX model fit to a set of training data was assessed using Akaike's information criterion to select the optimal model that forecasts aquifer discharge, given the previous year's discharge and values of the predictor variables. Model performance was assessed by application of the model to a validation subset of data. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency for model predictions made on the validation set was 0.57. The predictor variables used in our forecast represent the major recharge and discharge components of the ESPA water budget, including variables that reflect overall water supply and important aspects of water administration and management. Coefficients of variation on the regression coefficients for streamflow and irrigation diversions were all much less than 0.5, indicating that these variables are strong predictors. The model with the highest AIC weight included streamflow, two irrigation diversion variables, and storage.

  18. AIR QUALITY FORECAST VERIFICATION USING SATELLITE DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    NOAA 's operational geostationary satellite retrievals of aerosol optical depths (AODs) were used to verify National Weather Service (NWS) experimental (research mode) particulate matter (PM2.5) forecast guidance issued during the summer 2004 International Consortium for Atmosp...

  19. Impact of Seasonal Forecasts on Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aldor-Noiman, S. C.

    2014-12-01

    More extreme and volatile weather conditions are a threat to U.S. agricultural productivity today, as multiple environmental conditions during the growing season impact crop yields. That's why farmers' agronomic management decisions are dominated by consideration for near, medium and seasonal forecasts of climate. The Climate Corporation aims to help farmers around the world protect and improve their farming operations by providing agronomic decision support tools that leverage forecasts on multiple timescales to provide valuable insights directly to farmers. In this talk, we will discuss the impact of accurate seasonal forecasts on major decisions growers face each season. We will also discuss assessment and evaluation of seasonal forecasts in the context of agricultural applications.

  20. Flood forecasting for Tucurui Hydroelectrical Plant, Brazil

    SciTech Connect

    Solomon, S.I.; Basso, E.; Osorio, C.; Melo de Moraes, H.; Serrano, A.

    1986-04-01

    The construction of the Tucurui Hydroelectric Plant on the Tocantins River basin in Brazil requires flood forecasting to ensure the safety of the cofferdam. The latter has been initially designed for a flood with a return frequency of one in 25 years. Lack of adequate forecasting facilities during the earlier stages of construction has resulted in significant damages and construction delays. Statistical forecasting models were developed by Projeto de Hidrologia y Climatologie da Amazonia (PHCA) for the purpose of preventing further damage at the site. The application of these models during the 1980 flood season, when the highest flood on record occurred at the Tucurui site, proved of great assistance in preventing the flooding of the cofferdam. In conjunction with the development of these models a number of data collection platforms using data transmission through the GOES system were installed to provide the data required for forecasting.

  1. Short term energy forecasting with neural networks

    SciTech Connect

    McMenamin, J.S.; Monforte, F.A. )

    1998-01-01

    Artificial neural networks are beginning to be used by electric utilities to forecast hourly system loads on a day-ahead basis. This paper discusses the neural network specification in terms of conventional econometric language, providing parallel concepts for terms such as training, learning, and nodes in the hidden layer. It is shown that these models are flexible nonlinear equations that can be estimated using nonlinear least squares. It is argued that these models are especially well suited to hourly load forecasting, reflecting the presence of important nonlinearities and variable interactions. The paper proceeds to show how conventional statistics, such as the BIC and MAPE statistics can be used to select the number of nodes in the hidden layer. It is concluded that these models provide a powerful, robust and sensible approach to hourly load forecasting that will provide modest improvements in forecast accuracy relative to well-specified regression models.

  2. International health spending forecasts: concepts and evaluation.

    PubMed

    Getzen, T E; Poullier, J P

    1992-05-01

    Health care depends on the organizational and financial decisions which constituted each national system. Since those decisions were made at various times over the preceding years under different macroeconomic conditions, current expenditures are a distributed lag function of GDP growth and inflation rates. The accuracy of forecasts from such causal econometric models are compared to exponential smoothing, moving average, and ARIMA methods. Data fro 19 OECD countries 1965-79 are used for calibration, and then ex ante forecasts are generated for 1980-87 so that actual forecast accuracy can be tested. The greatest reduction in mean absolute error was obtained with the econometric model estimated in aggregate across all 19 countries, although single-country models, exponential smoothing and international averaging were also effective. A combination of all four forecasts was more accurate than any one alone, reducing MAE by 25% relative to a constant growth projection.

  3. Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS

    SciTech Connect

    Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P.

    2010-10-26

    The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

  4. Prediction Techniques in Operational Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhukov, Andrei

    2016-07-01

    The importance of forecasting space weather conditions is steadily increasing as our society is becoming more and more dependent on advanced technologies that may be affected by disturbed space weather. Operational space weather forecasting is still a difficult task that requires the real-time availability of input data and specific prediction techniques that are reviewed in this presentation, with an emphasis on solar and interplanetary weather. Key observations that are essential for operational space weather forecasting are listed. Predictions made on the base of empirical and statistical methods, as well as physical models, are described. Their validation, accuracy, and limitations are discussed in the context of operational forecasting. Several important problems in the scientific basis of predicting space weather are described, and possible ways to overcome them are discussed, including novel space-borne observations that could be available in future.

  5. Moisture Forecast Bias Correction in GEOS DAS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dee, D.

    1999-01-01

    Data assimilation methods rely on numerous assumptions about the errors involved in measuring and forecasting atmospheric fields. One of the more disturbing of these is that short-term model forecasts are assumed to be unbiased. In case of atmospheric moisture, for example, observational evidence shows that the systematic component of errors in forecasts and analyses is often of the same order of magnitude as the random component. we have implemented a sequential algorithm for estimating forecast moisture bias from rawinsonde data in the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The algorithm is designed to remove the systematic component of analysis errors and can be easily incorporated in an existing statistical data assimilation system. We will present results of initial experiments that show a significant reduction of bias in the GEOS DAS moisture analyses.

  6. Forecasting in the presence of expectations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, R.; Zivin, J. G.; Shrader, J.

    2016-05-01

    Physical processes routinely influence economic outcomes, and actions by economic agents can, in turn, influence physical processes. This feedback creates challenges for forecasting and inference, creating the potential for complementarity between models from different academic disciplines. Using the example of prediction of water availability during a drought, we illustrate the potential biases in forecasts that only take part of a coupled system into account. In particular, we show that forecasts can alter the feedbacks between supply and demand, leading to inaccurate prediction about future states of the system. Although the example is specific to drought, the problem of feedback between expectations and forecast quality is not isolated to the particular model-it is relevant to areas as diverse as population assessments for conservation, balancing the electrical grid, and setting macroeconomic policy.

  7. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, Forecast Office

    NASA Video Gallery

    The Forecast Office of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the nation's official source of alerts, warnings, and watches. The office, staffed 24/7, is always vigilant for solar activity that ...

  8. An Application of Markov Chains and a Monte-Carlo Simulation to Decision-Making Behavior of an Educational Administrator

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yoda, Koji

    1973-01-01

    Develops models to systematically forecast the tendency of an educational administrator in charge of personnel selection processes to shift from one decision strategy to another under generally stable environmental conditions. Urges further research on these processes by educational planners. (JF)

  9. Drought forecasting over Europe using Standardized Precipitation Index and monthly forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurnik, B.

    2009-09-01

    In this study drought forecasting with the Standardized Precipitation Index - SPI computed from monthly meteorological forecasts and ERA-40 data is presented. Both datasets are produced and delivered by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The SPI is based on rainfall only. It is a statistical indicator evaluating the lack or surplus of precipitation during a given period of time as a function of the long-term average precipitation and its distribution. It is calculated using a continuous, long-term (more than 30 years) series of historic monthly precipitation records. Depending on the purpose of the analysis the SPI can be calculated for different time scales (from less than 1 month to 24 or 48 months) The forecasted 3 monthly SPI (SPI-3) is computed as a combination of ECMWF probabilistic monthly meteorological forecasts and two months of ERA-40 precipitation data over the European area. Probability that forecasted SPI-3 exceeds predefined threshold is derived from 50 ensemble states of the monthly forecast. Brier Score (BS) and Brier Skill Score (BSS) methods have been used for validation of probabilistic SPI-3 forecasts against observations data derived from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre - GPCC. Additionally also categorical verification has been applied with conversion from probabilistic to categorical forecast system using probabilistic thresholds (60 % and 75 %). Performance measures, such as Proportion correct (PC), Hit rate (HR) and False alarm ratio (FAR) together with Pierce's skill score (PSS), have been applied. In the analyzed spatial and temporal domain BS values for ECMWF forecast are generally low. Higher BS has been calculated in the winter 2005/2006 and in the areas where instability of SPI is quite high. BSS shows the ECMWF forecasts are better skilled than climatology in spatial and temporal domain. BSS values are positive in around 55 % of the cases. Adjusted contingency table verification show similar

  10. Tracking Progress in North American Monsoon Seasonal Forecasts: The NAME Forecast Forum (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gochis, D. J.

    2009-12-01

    The North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) was developed and implemented in an effort to improve the low prediction skill of intraseasonal and seasonal forecasts of North American Monsoon behavior. As a logical follow-on to NAM diagnostic and modeling activities, the NAME research and operational seasonal prediction communities have developed the NAME Forecast Forum (NFF), whose aim is to consolidate and assess, in real time, the performance of intraseasonal and seasonal monsoon forecasts and to make these forecasts available to a range of regional stakeholders. This forum, first implemented in the 2008 NAM season, showed that dynamical forecast models predict many general precipitation patterns moderately well but do not fully capture monsoon extent and magnitude. In this talk we will present results of the NAM precipitation forecasts for the past two summers, 2008 and 2009. These summers are interesting in the context of evaluating model performance in situations of climatic extremes. Summer rainfall over Mexico during 2008 was the highest on record for the past 60 years while 2009 saw many regions experiencing far below normal rainfall. The possible reasons for these extreme seasons will be explored as they relate to the apparent skill of seasonal forecasts submitted to the NAME Forecast Forum. Future plans for the Forecast Forum will also be presented.

  11. From short term power forecasting to nowcasting - Benefiting from meteorological forecasts and measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mey, Britta; Braun, Axel; Good, Garrett; Vogt, Stephan; Wessel, Arne; Dobschinski, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Today, wind and solar power forecasts with time horizons from zero to about three hours are essential for the reliable grid and market integration of wind and solar energy. With respect to closure times of German intra-day markets, power forecasts with time horizons of about one to two hours and an update frequency of 15 minutes are required for final trading activities, reducing the uncertainty of the day-ahead forecast of the previous day. Regarding grid security aspects, grid operators utilize such forecasts to create continuous intra-day grid congestion forecasts. In addition to these preventive measures, wind and solar power become more and more important for the provision of ancillary services by wind and solar farm operators. This use case mainly requires power forecasts with time horizons of less than one hour. In general, forecasts with time horizons below three hours are investigated within the nowcasting research area. Nowcasting models are mainly based on current observations and extrapolation methods. With respect to wind and solar power forecasts with horizons of up to three hours, it has been shown in studies that real-time power measurements have the highest information content as compared to other potential model input parameters. We will present results from studies focusing on the benefit of meteorological data (forecasts and/or measurements) in the field of solar and wind power forecasts with time horizons of up to a few hours. Wind farm forecast errors are for example reduced by using numerical weather prediction (NWP) data in the wind power prediction model along with real-time wind farm power measurements. Furthermore, spatially distributed NWP data in combination with German total wind power measurements helped in the reduction of extreme forecast errors. By using global radiation forecasts as an input for wind power forecasts, forecast error during sunrise and sunset could be reduced. In the field of German total solar power, nowcasting

  12. Satellite-advection based solar forecasting: lessons learned and progress towards probabalistic solar forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rogers, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    Using satellite observations from GOES-E and GOES-W platforms in concert with GFS-derived cloud-level winds and a standalone radiative transfer model, an advection-derived forecast for surface GHI over the continental United States, with intercomparison between forecasts for four zones over the CONUS and Central Pacific with SURFRAD results. Primary sources for error in advection-based forecasts, primarily driven by false- or mistimed ramp events are discussed, with identification of error sources quantified along with techniques used to improve advection-based forecasts to approximately 10% MAE for designated surface locations. Development of a blended steering wind product utilizing NWP output combined with satellite-derived winds from AMV techniques to improve 0-1 hour advection forecasts will be discussed. Additionally, the use of two years' of solar forecast observations in the development of a prototype probablistic forecast for ramp events will be shown, with the intent of increasing the use of satellite-derived forecasts for grid operators and optimizing integration of renewable resources into the power grid. Elements of the work were developed under the 'Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting' project spearheaded by the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

  13. Ensemble Forecasts with Useful Skill-Spread Relationships for African meningitis and Asia Streamflow Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hopson, T. M.

    2014-12-01

    One potential benefit of an ensemble prediction system (EPS) is its capacity to forecast its own forecast error through the ensemble spread-error relationship. In practice, an EPS is often quite limited in its ability to represent the variable expectation of forecast error through the variable dispersion of the ensemble, and perhaps more fundamentally, in its ability to provide enough variability in the ensembles dispersion to make the skill-spread relationship even potentially useful (irrespective of whether the EPS is well-calibrated or not). In this paper we examine the ensemble skill-spread relationship of an ensemble constructed from the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) dataset of global forecasts and a combination of multi-model and post-processing approaches. Both of the multi-model and post-processing techniques are based on quantile regression (QR) under a step-wise forward selection framework leading to ensemble forecasts with both good reliability and sharpness. The methodology utilizes the ensemble's ability to self-diagnose forecast instability to produce calibrated forecasts with informative skill-spread relationships. A context for these concepts is provided by assessing the constructed ensemble in forecasting district-level humidity impacting the incidence of meningitis in the meningitis belt of Africa, and in forecasting flooding events in the Brahmaputra and Ganges basins of South Asia.

  14. A global flash flood forecasting system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baugh, Calum; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Hewson, Tim; Zsoter, Ervin

    2016-04-01

    The sudden and devastating nature of flash flood events means it is imperative to provide early warnings such as those derived from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts. Currently such systems exist on basin, national and continental scales in Europe, North America and Australia but rely on high resolution NWP forecasts or rainfall-radar nowcasting, neither of which have global coverage. To produce global flash flood forecasts this work investigates the possibility of using forecasts from a global NWP system. In particular we: (i) discuss how global NWP can be used for flash flood forecasting and discuss strengths and weaknesses; (ii) demonstrate how a robust evaluation can be performed given the rarity of the event; (iii) highlight the challenges and opportunities in communicating flash flood uncertainty to decision makers; and (iv) explore future developments which would significantly improve global flash flood forecasting. The proposed forecast system uses ensemble surface runoff forecasts from the ECMWF H-TESSEL land surface scheme. A flash flood index is generated using the ERIC (Enhanced Runoff Index based on Climatology) methodology [Raynaud et al., 2014]. This global methodology is applied to a series of flash floods across southern Europe. Results from the system are compared against warnings produced using the higher resolution COSMO-LEPS limited area model. The global system is evaluated by comparing forecasted warning locations against a flash flood database of media reports created in partnership with floodlist.com. To deal with the lack of objectivity in media reports we carefully assess the suitability of different skill scores and apply spatial uncertainty thresholds to the observations. To communicate the uncertainties of the flash flood system output we experiment with a dynamic region-growing algorithm. This automatically clusters regions of similar return period exceedence probabilities, thus presenting the at-risk areas at a spatial

  15. Operational foreshock forecasting: Fifteen years after

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogata, Y.

    2010-12-01

    We are concerned with operational forecasting of the probability that events are foreshocks of a forthcoming earthquake that is significantly larger (mainshock). Specifically, we define foreshocks as the preshocks substantially smaller than the mainshock by a magnitude gap of 0.5 or larger. The probability gain of foreshock forecast is extremely high compare to long-term forecast by renewal processes or various alarm-based intermediate-term forecasts because of a large event’s low occurrence rate in a short period and a narrow target region. Thus, it is desired to establish operational foreshock probability forecasting as seismologists have done for aftershocks. When a series of earthquakes occurs in a region, we attempt to discriminate foreshocks from a swarm or mainshock-aftershock sequence. Namely, after real time identification of an earthquake cluster using methods such as the single-link algorithm, the probability is calculated by applying statistical features that discriminate foreshocks from other types of clusters, by considering the events' stronger proximity in time and space and tendency towards chronologically increasing magnitudes. These features were modeled for probability forecasting and the coefficients of the model were estimated in Ogata et al. (1996) for the JMA hypocenter data (M≧4, 1926-1993). Currently, fifteen years has passed since the publication of the above-stated work so that we are able to present the performance and validation of the forecasts (1994-2009) by using the same model. Taking isolated events into consideration, the probability of the first events in a potential cluster being a foreshock vary in a range between 0+% and 10+% depending on their locations. This conditional forecasting performs significantly better than the unconditional (average) foreshock probability of 3.7% throughout Japan region. Furthermore, when we have the additional events in a cluster, the forecast probabilities range more widely from nearly 0% to

  16. Application of hydrologic forecast model.

    PubMed

    Hua, Xu; Hengxin, Xue; Zhiguo, Chen

    2012-01-01

    In order to overcome the shortcoming of the solution may be trapped into the local minimization in the traditional TSK (Takagi-Sugeno-Kang) fuzzy inference training, this paper attempts to consider the TSK fuzzy system modeling approach based on the visual system principle and the Weber law. This approach not only utilizes the strong capability of identifying objects of human eyes, but also considers the distribution structure of the training data set in parameter regulation. In order to overcome the shortcoming of it adopting the gradient learning algorithm with slow convergence rate, a novel visual TSK fuzzy system model based on evolutional learning is proposed by introducing the particle swarm optimization algorithm. The main advantage of this method lies in its very good optimization, very strong noise immunity and very good interpretability. The new method is applied to long-term hydrological forecasting examples. The simulation results show that the method is feasible and effective, the new method not only inherits the advantages of traditional visual TSK fuzzy models but also has the better global convergence and accuracy than the traditional model.

  17. Seismic Forecasting of Solar Activity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Braun, Douglas; Lindsey, Charles

    2001-01-01

    We have developed and improved helioseismic imaging techniques of the far-side of the Sun as part of a synoptic monitor of solar activity. In collaboration with the MIDI team at Stanford University we are routinely applying our analysis to images within 24 hours of their acquisition by SOHO. For the first time, real-time seismic maps of large active regions on the Sun's far surface are publicly available. The synoptic images show examples of active regions persisting for one or more solar rotations, as well as those initially detected forming on the solar far side. Until recently, imaging the far surface of the Sun has been essentially blind to active regions more than about 50 degrees from the antipode of disk center. In a paper recently accepted for publication, we have demonstrated how acoustic travel-time perturbations may be mapped over the entire hemisphere of the Sun facing away from the Earth, including the polar regions. In addition to offering significant improvements to ongoing space weather forecasting efforts, the procedure offers the possibility of local seismic monitoring of both the temporal and spatial variations in the acoustic properties of the Sun over the entire far surface.

  18. Forecasting Tools Point to Fishing Hotspots

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2009-01-01

    Private weather forecaster WorldWinds Inc. of Slidell, Louisiana has employed satellite-gathered oceanic data from Marshall Space Flight Center to create a service that is every fishing enthusiast s dream. The company's FishBytes system uses information about sea surface temperature and chlorophyll levels to forecast favorable conditions for certain fish populations. Transmitting the data to satellite radio subscribers, FishBytes provides maps that guide anglers to the areas they are most likely to make their favorite catch.

  19. Spatiotemporal drought forecasting using nonlinear models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasiliades, Lampros; Loukas, Athanasios

    2010-05-01

    Spatiotemporal data mining is the extraction of unknown and implicit knowledge, structures, spatiotemporal relationships, or patterns not explicitly stored in spatiotemporal databases. As one of data mining techniques, forecasting is widely used to predict the unknown future based upon the patterns hidden in the current and past data. In order to achieve spatiotemporal forecasting, some mature analysis tools, e.g., time series and spatial statistics are extended to the spatial dimension and the temporal dimension, respectively. Drought forecasting plays an important role in the planning and management of natural resources and water resource systems in a river basin. Early and timelines forecasting of a drought event can help to take proactive measures and set out drought mitigation strategies to alleviate the impacts of drought. Despite the widespread application of nonlinear mathematical models, comparative studies on spatiotemporal drought forecasting using different models are still a huge task for modellers. This study uses a promising approach, the Gamma Test (GT), to select the input variables and the training data length, so that the trial and error workload could be greatly reduced. The GT enables to quickly evaluate and estimate the best mean squared error that can be achieved by a smooth model on any unseen data for a given selection of inputs, prior to model construction. The GT is applied to forecast droughts using monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) timeseries at multiple timescales in several precipitation stations at Pinios river basin in Thessaly region, Greece. Several nonlinear models have been developed efficiently, with the aid of the GT, for 1-month up to 12-month ahead forecasting. Several temporal and spatial statistical indices were considered for the performance evaluation of the models. The predicted results show reasonably good agreement with the actual data for short lead times, whereas the forecasting accuracy decreases with

  20. Nonlinear forecasting of intertidal shoreface evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grimes, D. J.; Cortale, N.; Baker, K.; McNamara, D. E.

    2015-10-01

    Natural systems dominated by sediment transport are notoriously difficult to forecast. This is particularly true along the ocean coastline, a region that draws considerable human attention as economic investment and infrastructure are threatened by both persistent, long-term and acute, event driven processes (i.e., sea level rise and storm damage, respectively). Forecasting the coastline's evolution over intermediate time (daily) and space (tens of meters) scales is hindered by the complexity of sediment transport and hydrodynamics, and limited access to the detailed local forcing that drives fast scale processes. Modern remote sensing systems provide an efficient, economical means to collect data within these regions. A solar-powered digital camera installation is used to capture the coast's evolution, and machine learning algorithms are implemented to extract the shoreline and estimate the daily mean intertidal coastal profile. Methods in nonlinear time series forecasting and genetic programming applied to these data corroborate that coastal morphology at these scales is predominately driven by nonlinear internal dynamics, which partially mask external forcing signatures. Results indicate that these forecasting techniques achieve nontrivial predictive skill for spatiotemporal forecast of the upper coastline profile (as much as 43% of variance in data explained for one day predictions). This analysis provides evidence that societally relevant coastline forecasts can be achieved without knowing the forcing environment or the underlying dynamical equations that govern coastline evolution.

  1. Forecasting area of strong aftershock occurrence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baranov, Sergey; Shebalin, Peter

    2016-04-01

    Forecasting an area of strong aftershock was never, at our knowledge, considered in terms of operational forecasting. Different declustering models exist to separate post-factum the aftershocks from "independent" events. Large number of studies discussed in previous years the form of the distribution of the aftershocks distances from the mainshock fault. Here we present results of our attempts to assimilate the above researches into a model that can be used in operational aftershock forecasting. Our study was based on data provided by ANSS catalog for 1980-2015. We tried more than 20 well known and suggested by ourselves models of aftershock areas to retrospective forecasting of strong aftershock areas. We tried the models based on data for 12 hours after a mainshock and estimated their forecast quality using special modification of L-test to achieve an optimal model. As a result of our study is a model that can be used in operational forecasting area of strong aftershocks. The research was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Project 16-05-00263A).

  2. Nonlinear forecasting of intertidal shoreface evolution.

    PubMed

    Grimes, D J; Cortale, N; Baker, K; McNamara, D E

    2015-10-01

    Natural systems dominated by sediment transport are notoriously difficult to forecast. This is particularly true along the ocean coastline, a region that draws considerable human attention as economic investment and infrastructure are threatened by both persistent, long-term and acute, event driven processes (i.e., sea level rise and storm damage, respectively). Forecasting the coastline's evolution over intermediate time (daily) and space (tens of meters) scales is hindered by the complexity of sediment transport and hydrodynamics, and limited access to the detailed local forcing that drives fast scale processes. Modern remote sensing systems provide an efficient, economical means to collect data within these regions. A solar-powered digital camera installation is used to capture the coast's evolution, and machine learning algorithms are implemented to extract the shoreline and estimate the daily mean intertidal coastal profile. Methods in nonlinear time series forecasting and genetic programming applied to these data corroborate that coastal morphology at these scales is predominately driven by nonlinear internal dynamics, which partially mask external forcing signatures. Results indicate that these forecasting techniques achieve nontrivial predictive skill for spatiotemporal forecast of the upper coastline profile (as much as 43% of variance in data explained for one day predictions). This analysis provides evidence that societally relevant coastline forecasts can be achieved without knowing the forcing environment or the underlying dynamical equations that govern coastline evolution.

  3. Traffic flow forecasting: Comparison of modeling approaches

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, B.L.; Demetsky, M.J.

    1997-08-01

    The capability to forecast traffic volume in an operational setting has been identified as a critical need for intelligent transportation systems (ITS). In particular, traffic volume forecasts will support proactive, dynamic traffic control. However, previous attempts to develop traffic volume forecasting models have met with limited success. This research effort focused on developing traffic volume forecasting models for two sites on Northern Virginia`s Capital Beltway. Four models were developed and tested for the freeway traffic flow forecasting problem, which is defined as estimating traffic flow 15 min into the future. They were the historical average, time-series, neural network, and nonparametric regression models. The nonparametric regression model significantly outperformed the other models. A Wilcoxon signed-rank test revealed that the nonparametric regression model experienced significantly lower errors than the other models. In addition, the nonparametric regression model was easy to implement, and proved to be portable, performing well at two distinct sites. Based on its success, research is ongoing to refine the nonparametric regression model and to extend it to produce multiple interval forecasts.

  4. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  5. Satellite based Ocean Forecasting, the SOFT project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stemmann, L.; Tintoré, J.; Moneris, S.

    2003-04-01

    The knowledge of future oceanic conditions would have enormous impact on human marine related areas. For such reasons, a number of international efforts are being carried out to obtain reliable and manageable ocean forecasting systems. Among the possible techniques that can be used to estimate the near future states of the ocean, an ocean forecasting system based on satellite imagery is developped through the Satelitte based Ocean ForecasTing project (SOFT). SOFT, established by the European Commission, considers the development of a forecasting system of the ocean space-time variability based on satellite data by using Artificial Intelligence techniques. This system will be merged with numerical simulation approaches, via assimilation techniques, to get a hybrid SOFT-numerical forecasting system of improved performance. The results of the project will provide efficient forecasting of sea-surface temperature structures, currents, dynamic height, and biological activity associated to chlorophyll fields. All these quantities could give valuable information on the planning and management of human activities in marine environments such as navigation, fisheries, pollution control, or coastal management. A detailed identification of present or new needs and potential end-users concerned by such an operational tool is being performed. The project would study solutions adapted to these specific needs.

  6. Status and Future of Dust Storm Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westphal, D. L.

    2002-12-01

    In recent years, increased attention has been given to the large amounts of airborne dust derived from the deserts and desertified areas of the world and transported over scales ranging from local to global. This dust can have positive and negative impacts on human activities and the environment, including modifying cloud formation, fertilizing the ocean, degrading air quality, reducing visibility, transporting pathogens, and inducing respiratory problems. The atmospheric radiative forcing by the dust has implications for global climate change and presently is one of the largest unknowns in climate models. These uncertainties have lead to much of the funding for research into the sources, properties, and fate of atmospheric dust. As a result of advances in numerical weather prediction over the past decades and the recent climate research, we are now in a position to produce operational dust storm forecasts. International organizations and national agencies are developing programs for dust forecasting. The approaches and applications of dust detection and forecasting are as varied as the nations that are developing the models. The basic components of a dust forecasting system include atmospheric forcing, dust production, and dust microphysics. The forecasting applications include air and auto traffic safety, shipping, health, national security, climate and weather. This presentation will summarize the methods of dust storm forecasting and illustrate the various applications. The major remaining uncertainties (e.g. sources and initialization) will be discussed as well as approaches for solving those problems.

  7. Why Don't We Learn to Accurately Forecast Feelings? How Misremembering Our Predictions Blinds Us to Past Forecasting Errors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meyvis, Tom; Ratner, Rebecca K.; Levav, Jonathan

    2010-01-01

    Why do affective forecasting errors persist in the face of repeated disconfirming evidence? Five studies demonstrate that people misremember their forecasts as consistent with their experience and thus fail to perceive the extent of their forecasting error. As a result, people do not learn from past forecasting errors and fail to adjust subsequent…

  8. Monitoring and seasonal forecasting of meteorological droughts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dutra, Emanuel; Pozzi, Will; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Di Giuseppe, Francesca; Magnusson, Linus; Naumann, Gustavo; Barbosa, Paulo; Vogt, Jurgen; Pappenberger, Florian

    2015-04-01

    Near-real time drought monitoring can provide decision makers valuable information for use in several areas, such as water resources management, or international aid. Unfortunately, a major constraint in current drought outlooks is the lack of reliable monitoring capability for observed precipitation globally in near-real time. Furthermore, drought monitoring systems requires a long record of past observations to provide mean climatological conditions. We address these constraints by developing a novel drought monitoring approach in which monthly mean precipitation is derived from short-range using ECMWF probabilistic forecasts and then merged with the long term precipitation climatology of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) dataset. Merging the two makes available a real-time global precipitation product out of which the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) can be estimated and used for global or regional drought monitoring work. This approach provides stability in that by-passes problems of latency (lags) in having local rain-gauge measurements available in real time or lags in satellite precipitation products. Seasonal drought forecasts can also be prepared using the common methodology and based upon two data sources used to provide initial conditions (GPCC and the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI) combined with either the current ECMWF seasonal forecast or a climatology based upon ensemble forecasts. Verification of the forecasts as a function of lead time revealed a reduced impact on skill for: (i) long lead times using different initial conditions, and (ii) short lead times using different precipitation forecasts. The memory effect of initial conditions was found to be 1 month lead time for the SPI-3, 3 to 4 months for the SPI-6 and 5 months for the SPI-12. Results show that dynamical forecasts of precipitation provide added value, a skill similar to or better than climatological forecasts. In some cases, particularly for long SPI time

  9. Pollen Forecast and Dispersion Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Costantini, Monica; Di Giuseppe, Fabio; Medaglia, Carlo Maria; Travaglini, Alessandro; Tocci, Raffaella; Brighetti, M. Antonia; Petitta, Marcello

    2014-05-01

    The aim of this study is monitoring, mapping and forecast of pollen distribution for the city of Rome using in-situ measurements of 10 species of common allergenic pollens and measurements of PM10. The production of daily concentration maps, associated to a mobile phone app, are innovative compared to existing dedicated services to people who suffer from respiratory allergies. The dispersal pollen is one of the most well-known causes of allergic disease that is manifested by disorders of the respiratory functions. Allergies are the third leading cause of chronic disease and it is estimated that tens millions of people in Italy suffer from it. Recent works reveal that during the last few years there was a progressive increase of affected subjects, especially in urban areas. This situation may depend: on the ability to transport of pollutants, on the ability to react between pollutants and pollen and from a combination of other irritants, existing in densely populated and polluted urban areas. The methodology used to produce maps is based on in-situ measurements time series relative to 2012, obtained from networks of air quality and pollen stations in the metropolitan area of Rome. The monitoring station aerobiological of University of Rome "Tor Vergata" is located at the Department of Biology. The instrument used to pollen monitoring is a volumetric sampler type Hirst (Hirst 1952), Model 2000 VPPS Lanzoni; the data acquisition is carried out as reported in Standard UNI 11008:2004 - "Qualità dell'aria - Metodo di campionamento e conteggio dei granuli pollinici e delle spore fungine aerodisperse" - the protocol that describes the procedure for measuring of the concentration of pollen grains and fungal spores dispersed into the atmosphere, and reported in the "Manuale di gestione e qualità della R.I.M.A" (Travaglini et. al. 2009). All 10 allergenic pollen are monitored since 1996. At Tor Vergata university is also operating a meteorological station (SP2000, CAE

  10. The Invasive Species Forecasting System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schnase, John; Most, Neal; Gill, Roger; Ma, Peter

    2011-01-01

    The Invasive Species Forecasting System (ISFS) provides computational support for the generic work processes found in many regional-scale ecosystem modeling applications. Decision support tools built using ISFS allow a user to load point occurrence field sample data for a plant species of interest and quickly generate habitat suitability maps for geographic regions of management concern, such as a national park, monument, forest, or refuge. This type of decision product helps resource managers plan invasive species protection, monitoring, and control strategies for the lands they manage. Until now, scientists and resource managers have lacked the data-assembly and computing capabilities to produce these maps quickly and cost efficiently. ISFS focuses on regional-scale habitat suitability modeling for invasive terrestrial plants. ISFS s component architecture emphasizes simplicity and adaptability. Its core services can be easily adapted to produce model-based decision support tools tailored to particular parks, monuments, forests, refuges, and related management units. ISFS can be used to build standalone run-time tools that require no connection to the Internet, as well as fully Internet-based decision support applications. ISFS provides the core data structures, operating system interfaces, network interfaces, and inter-component constraints comprising the canonical workflow for habitat suitability modeling. The predictors, analysis methods, and geographic extents involved in any particular model run are elements of the user space and arbitrarily configurable by the user. ISFS provides small, lightweight, readily hardened core components of general utility. These components can be adapted to unanticipated uses, are tailorable, and require at most a loosely coupled, nonproprietary connection to the Web. Users can invoke capabilities from a command line; programmers can integrate ISFS's core components into more complex systems and services. Taken together, these

  11. Forecasting and Monitoring Agricultural Drought in the Philippines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perez, G. J.; Macapagal, M.; Olivares, R.; Macapagal, E. M.; Comiso, J. C.

    2016-06-01

    A monitoring and forecasting sytem is developed to assess the extent and severity of agricultural droughts in the Philippines at various spacial scales and across different time periods. Using Earth observation satellite data, drought index, hazard and vulnerability maps are created. The drought index, called Standardized Vegetation-Temperature Ratio (SVTR), is derived using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST). SVTR is evaluated by correlating its values with existing agricultural drought index, particulary Evaporative Stress Index (ESI). Moreover, the performance of SVTR in detecting drought occurrences was assessed for the 2015-2016 drought event. This period is a strong El Niño year and a large portion of the country was affected by drought at varying degrees, making it a good case study for evaluating drought indices. Satellitederived SVTR was validated through several field visits and surveys across different major agricultural areas in the country, and was found to be 73% accurate. The drought hazard and vulnerability maps are produced by utilizing the evapotranspration product of MODIS, rainfall climatology from the Tropical Rainfall Microwave Mission (TRMM) and ancillary data, including irrigation, water holding capacity and land use. Finally, we used statistical techniques to determine trends in NDVI and LST and generate a sixmonth forecast of drought index. Outputs of this study are being assessed by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) and the Department of Agriculture Bureau of Soils and Water Management (DABSWM) for future integration in their operations.

  12. Total probabilities of ensemble runoff forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olav Skøien, Jon; Bogner, Konrad; Salamon, Peter; Smith, Paul; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    Ensemble forecasting has for a long time been used as a method in meteorological modelling to indicate the uncertainty of the forecasts. However, as the ensembles often exhibit both bias and dispersion errors, it is necessary to calibrate and post-process them. Two of the most common methods for this are Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2005) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) (Gneiting et al., 2005). There are also methods for regionalizing these methods (Berrocal et al., 2007) and for incorporating the correlation between lead times (Hemri et al., 2013). Engeland and Steinsland Engeland and Steinsland (2014) developed a framework which can estimate post-processing parameters which are different in space and time, but still can give a spatially and temporally consistent output. However, their method is computationally complex for our larger number of stations, and cannot directly be regionalized in the way we would like, so we suggest a different path below. The target of our work is to create a mean forecast with uncertainty bounds for a large number of locations in the framework of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS - http://www.efas.eu) We are therefore more interested in improving the forecast skill for high-flows rather than the forecast skill of lower runoff levels. EFAS uses a combination of ensemble forecasts and deterministic forecasts from different forecasters to force a distributed hydrologic model and to compute runoff ensembles for each river pixel within the model domain. Instead of showing the mean and the variability of each forecast ensemble individually, we will now post-process all model outputs to find a total probability, the post-processed mean and uncertainty of all ensembles. The post-processing parameters are first calibrated for each calibration location, but assuring that they have some spatial correlation, by adding a spatial penalty in the calibration process. This can in some cases have a slight negative

  13. Use of High-Resolution Continuum Source Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (HR-CS FAAS) for Sequential Multi-Element Determination of Metals in Seawater and Wastewater Samples

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peña-Vázquez, E.; Barciela-Alonso, M. C.; Pita-Calvo, C.; Domínguez-González, R.; Bermejo-Barrera, P.

    2015-09-01

    The objective of this work is to develop a method for the determination of metals in saline matrices using high-resolution continuum source flame atomic absorption spectrometry (HR-CS FAAS). Module SFS 6 for sample injection was used in the manual mode, and flame operating conditions were selected. The main absorption lines were used for all the elements, and the number of selected analytical pixels were 5 (CP±2) for Cd, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb and Zn, and 3 pixels for Mn (CP±1). Samples were acidified (0.5% (v/v) nitric acid), and the standard addition method was used for the sequential determination of the analytes in diluted samples (1:2). The method showed good precision (RSD(%) < 4%, except for Pb (6.5%)) and good recoveries. Accuracy was checked after the analysis of an SPS-WW2 wastewater reference material diluted with synthetic seawater (dilution 1:2), showing a good agreement between certified and experimental results.

  14. Direct Zinc Determination in Brazilian Sugar Cane Spirit by Solid-Phase Extraction Using Moringa oleifera Husks in a Flow System with Detection by FAAS

    PubMed Central

    Alves, Vanessa N.; Borges, Simone S. O.; Coelho, Nivia M. M.

    2011-01-01

    This paper reports a method for the determination of zinc in Brazilian sugar cane spirit, (cachaça in Portuguese), using solid-phase extraction with a flow injection analysis system and detection by FAAS. The sorbent material used was activated carbon obtained from Moringa oleifera husks. Flow and chemical variables of the proposed system were optimized through multivariate designs. The factors selected were sorbent mass, sample pH, sample flow rate, and eluent concentration. The optimum extraction conditions were obtained using a sample pH of 4.0, a sample flow rate of 6.0 mL min−1, 30.0 mg of sorbent mass, and 1.0 mol L−1 HNO3 as the eluent at a flow rate of 4.0 mL min−1. The limit of detection for zinc was 1.9 μg L−1, and the precision was below 0.82% (20.0 μg L−1, n = 7). The analytical curve was linear from 2 to 50 μg L−1, with a correlation coefficient of 0.9996. The method developed was successfully applied to spiked Brazilian sugar cane spirit, and accuracy was assessed through recovery tests, with results ranging from 83% to 100%. PMID:21785595

  15. Impact of precipitation forecast uncertainties and initial soil moisture conditions on a probabilistic flood forecasting chain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silvestro, Francesco; Rebora, Nicola

    2014-11-01

    One of the main difficulties that flood forecasters are faced with is evaluating how errors and uncertainties in forecasted precipitation propagate into streamflow forecast. These errors, must be combined with the effects of different initial soil moisture conditions that generally have a significant impact on the final results of a flood forecast. This is further complicated by the fact that a probabilistic approach is needed, especially when small and medium size basins are considered (the variability of the streamflow scenarios is in fact strongly influenced by the aforementioned factors). Moreover, the ensemble size is a degree of freedom when a precipitation downscaling algorithm is part of the forecast chain. In fact, a change of ensemble size could lead to different final results once the other inputs and parameters are fixed. In this work, a series of synthetic experiments have been designed and implemented to test an operational probabilistic flood forecast system in order to augment the knowledge of how streamflow forecasts can be affected by errors and uncertainties associated with the three aforementioned elements: forecasted rainfall, soil moisture initial conditions, and ensemble size.

  16. Uncertainty Forecasts Improve Weather-Related Decisions and Attenuate the Effects of Forecast Error

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joslyn, Susan L.; LeClerc, Jared E.

    2012-01-01

    Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather…

  17. More intense experiences, less intense forecasts: why people overweight probability specifications in affective forecasts.

    PubMed

    Buechel, Eva C; Zhang, Jiao; Morewedge, Carey K; Vosgerau, Joachim

    2014-01-01

    We propose that affective forecasters overestimate the extent to which experienced hedonic responses to an outcome are influenced by the probability of its occurrence. The experience of an outcome (e.g., winning a gamble) is typically more affectively intense than the simulation of that outcome (e.g., imagining winning a gamble) upon which the affective forecast for it is based. We suggest that, as a result, experiencers allocate a larger share of their attention toward the outcome (e.g., winning the gamble) and less to its probability specifications than do affective forecasters. Consequently, hedonic responses to an outcome are less sensitive to its probability specifications than are affective forecasts for that outcome. The results of 6 experiments provide support for our theory. Affective forecasters overestimated how sensitive experiencers would be to the probability of positive and negative outcomes (Experiments 1 and 2). Consistent with our attentional account, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications disappeared when the attention of forecasters was diverted from probability specifications (Experiment 3) or when the attention of experiencers was drawn toward probability specifications (Experiment 4). Finally, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications between forecasters and experiencers were diminished when the forecasted outcome was more affectively intense (Experiments 5 and 6).

  18. More intense experiences, less intense forecasts: why people overweight probability specifications in affective forecasts.

    PubMed

    Buechel, Eva C; Zhang, Jiao; Morewedge, Carey K; Vosgerau, Joachim

    2014-01-01

    We propose that affective forecasters overestimate the extent to which experienced hedonic responses to an outcome are influenced by the probability of its occurrence. The experience of an outcome (e.g., winning a gamble) is typically more affectively intense than the simulation of that outcome (e.g., imagining winning a gamble) upon which the affective forecast for it is based. We suggest that, as a result, experiencers allocate a larger share of their attention toward the outcome (e.g., winning the gamble) and less to its probability specifications than do affective forecasters. Consequently, hedonic responses to an outcome are less sensitive to its probability specifications than are affective forecasts for that outcome. The results of 6 experiments provide support for our theory. Affective forecasters overestimated how sensitive experiencers would be to the probability of positive and negative outcomes (Experiments 1 and 2). Consistent with our attentional account, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications disappeared when the attention of forecasters was diverted from probability specifications (Experiment 3) or when the attention of experiencers was drawn toward probability specifications (Experiment 4). Finally, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications between forecasters and experiencers were diminished when the forecasted outcome was more affectively intense (Experiments 5 and 6). PMID:24128184

  19. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  20. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  1. Implementation of Real-Time Bias-Adjusted O3 and PM2.5 Air Quality Forecasts and their Performance Evaluations during 2008 over the Continental United States

    EPA Science Inventory

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in partnership with the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), is operationally implementing an Air Quality Forecast (AQF) system. This program, which couples NOAA's North American Mesoscale (NAM) weather p...

  2. Information Manpower Forecasting. Papers Presented at the FID/ET Seminar (Espoo, Finland, August 24-27, 1988).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dosa, Marta L., Ed.; Froehlich, Thomas J., Ed.

    This collection contains 20 papers written by educators, administrators and information scientists who had conducted manpower surveys in the library and information fields: (1) "Background and Evolution of Educational Planning and Forecasting for Information Manpower" (Yves Courrier); (2) "Indicators for the Emerging Information Market" (Nick…

  3. Senior Administrators Should Have Administrative Contracts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Posner, Gary J.

    1987-01-01

    Recognizing that termination is viewed by the employee as the equivalent to capital punishment of a career, an administrative contract can reduce the emotional and financial entanglements that often result. Administrative contracts are described. (MLW)

  4. Optimizing Tsunami Forecast Model Accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitmore, P.; Nyland, D. L.; Huang, P. Y.

    2015-12-01

    Recent tsunamis provide a means to determine the accuracy that can be expected of real-time tsunami forecast models. Forecast accuracy using two different tsunami forecast models are compared for seven events since 2006 based on both real-time application and optimized, after-the-fact "forecasts". Lessons learned by comparing the forecast accuracy determined during an event to modified applications of the models after-the-fact provide improved methods for real-time forecasting for future events. Variables such as source definition, data assimilation, and model scaling factors are examined to optimize forecast accuracy. Forecast accuracy is also compared for direct forward modeling based on earthquake source parameters versus accuracy obtained by assimilating sea level data into the forecast model. Results show that including assimilated sea level data into the models increases accuracy by approximately 15% for the events examined.

  5. Seasonal Water Balance Forecasts for Drought Early Warning in Ethiopia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spirig, Christoph; Bhend, Jonas; Liniger, Mark

    2016-04-01

    Droughts severely impact Ethiopian agricultural production. Successful early warning for drought conditions in the upcoming harvest season therefore contributes to better managing food shortages arising from adverse climatic conditions. So far, however, meteorological seasonal forecasts have not been used in Ethiopia's national food security early warning system (i.e. the LEAP platform). Here we analyse the forecast quality of seasonal forecasts of total rainfall and of the meteorological water balance as a proxy for plant available water. We analyse forecast skill of June to September rainfall and water balance from dynamical seasonal forecast systems, the ECMWF System4 and EC-EARTH global forecasting systems. Rainfall forecasts outperform forecasts assuming a stationary climate mainly in north-eastern Ethiopia - an area that is particularly vulnerable to droughts. Forecasts of the water balance index seem to be even more skilful and thus more useful than pure rainfall forecasts. The results vary though for different lead times and skill measures employed. We further explore the potential added value of dynamically downscaling the forecasts through several dynamical regional climate models made available through the EU FP7 project EUPORIAS. Preliminary results suggest that dynamically downscaled seasonal forecasts are not significantly better compared with seasonal forecasts from the global models. We conclude that seasonal forecasts of a simple climate index such as the water balance have the potential to benefit drought early warning in Ethiopia, both due to its positive predictive skill and higher usefulness than seasonal mean quantities.

  6. Evaluation of ensemble forecast uncertainty using a new proper score: application to medium-range and seasonal forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christensen, Hannah; Moroz, Irene; Palmer, Tim

    2015-04-01

    Forecast verification is important across scientific disciplines as it provides a framework for evaluating the performance of a forecasting system. In the atmospheric sciences, probabilistic skill scores are often used for verification as they provide a way of unambiguously ranking the performance of different probabilistic forecasts. In order to be useful, a skill score must be proper -- it must encourage honesty in the forecaster, and reward forecasts which are reliable and which have good resolution. A new score, the Error-spread Score (ES), is proposed which is particularly suitable for evaluation of ensemble forecasts. It is formulated with respect to the moments of the forecast. The ES is confirmed to be a proper score, and is therefore sensitive to both resolution and reliability. The ES is tested on forecasts made using the Lorenz '96 system, and found to be useful for summarising the skill of the forecasts. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system (EPS) is evaluated using the ES. Its performance is compared to a perfect statistical probabilistic forecast -- the ECMWF high resolution deterministic forecast dressed with the observed error distribution. This generates a forecast that is perfectly reliable if considered over all time, but which does not vary from day to day with the predictability of the atmospheric flow. The ES distinguishes between the dynamically reliable EPS forecasts and the statically reliable dressed deterministic forecasts. Other skill scores are tested and found to be comparatively insensitive to this desirable forecast quality. The ES is used to evaluate seasonal range ensemble forecasts made with the ECMWF System 4. The ensemble forecasts are found to be skilful when compared with climatological or persistence forecasts, though this skill is dependent on region and time of year.

  7. Long-range oil and gas forecasting methodologies: literature survey

    SciTech Connect

    Cherniavsky, E.A.

    1980-08-01

    Performance of long-range energy system analyses requires the capability to project conventional domestic oil and gas supplies in the long term. The objective of the Long-range Forecasting Methodology project is to formulate an approach to this problem which will be compatible with the principal tool employed by the Energy Information Administration of the Department of Energy for long-range energy system analyses, the Long-term Energy Analysis Package (LEAP). This paper reports on projection methodologies that have appeared in the literature, evaluates them in terms of their applicability to the LEAP framework, and discusses the principal determinants of conventional domestic oil and gas supply in the long run.

  8. Flood forecasting in Niger-Benue basin using satellite and quantitative precipitation forecast data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haile, Alemseged Tamiru; Tefera, Fekadu Teshome; Rientjes, Tom

    2016-10-01

    Availability of reliable, timely and accurate rainfall data is constraining the establishment of flood forecasting and early warning systems in many parts of Africa. We evaluated the potential of satellite and weather forecast data as input to a parsimonious flood forecasting model to provide information for flood early warning in the central part of Nigeria. We calibrated the HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model using rainfall data from post real time Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi satellite Precipitation Analysis product (TMPA). Real time TMPA satellite rainfall estimates and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) rainfall products were tested for flood forecasting. The implication of removing the systematic errors of the satellite rainfall estimates (SREs) was explored. Performance of the rainfall-runoff model was assessed using visual inspection of simulated and observed hydrographs and a set of performance indicators. The forecast skill was assessed for 1-6 days lead time using categorical verification statistics such as Probability Of Detection (POD), Frequency Of Hit (FOH) and Frequency Of Miss (FOM). The model performance satisfactorily reproduced the pattern and volume of the observed stream flow hydrograph of Benue River. Overall, our results show that SREs and rainfall forecasts from weather models have great potential to serve as model inputs for real-time flood forecasting in data scarce areas. For these data to receive application in African transboundary basins, we suggest (i) removing their systematic error to further improve flood forecast skill; (ii) improving rainfall forecasts; and (iii) improving data sharing between riparian countries.

  9. Skill of global hydrological forecasting system FEWS GLOWASIS using climatic ESP forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weerts, A. H.; Candogan, N.; Winsemius, H. C.; van Beek, R.; Westerhoff, R.

    2012-04-01

    Forecasting of water availability and scarcity is a prerequisite for the management of hydropower reservoirs, basin-scale management of water resources, agriculture and disaster relief. The EU 7th Framework Program project Global Water Scarcity Information Service (GLOWASIS) aims to pre-validate a service that provides real-time global-scale information on water scarcity. In this contribution, we demonstrate what skill (compared to a climatology) may be reached with a global seasonal ensemble forecasting system consisting of: a) a global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB; b) an updating procedure for initial forecasting states, based on the best-guess global rainfall information. As best guess, a combination of ERA-Interim Reanalysis rainfall and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observations is being used; c) a forecast based on Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)procedure and reverse ESP procedure (Wood and Lettenmaier, 2008). In the ESP procedure, a meteorological forecast ensemble is generated based on past years of observation series (i.e. climatological observations). As observations, the combination of ERA-Interim and GPCP is used. In reverse ESP, an ensemble is generated by using a set of initial states from a large sample of updates at the specific month of interest, and forecasts are produced using one observed set. This analysis allows us to measure how much skill may be expected from hydrological inertia and climatology alone, leaving aside for the moment potential skill improvement by using seasonal meteorological forecasts. In future work, we will measure how much skill improvement compared to the forecasts mentioned above may be reached, when ECMWF Seasonal forecasts are used. This will allow us to measure the contributions to skill of each component (initial state inertia, hydrology and meteorological inputs) of the forecast system.

  10. Timetable of an operational flood forecasting system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liechti, Katharina; Jaun, Simon; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2010-05-01

    At present a new underground part of Zurich main station is under construction. For this purpose the runoff capacity of river Sihl, which is passing beneath the main station, is reduced by 40%. If a flood is to occur the construction site is evacuated and gates can be opened for full runoff capacity to prevent bigger damages. However, flooding the construction site, even if it is controlled, is coupled with costs and retardation. The evacuation of the construction site at Zurich main station takes about 2 to 4 hours and opening the gates takes another 1 to 2 hours each. In the upper part of the 336 km2 Sihl catchment the Sihl lake, a reservoir lake, is situated. It belongs and is used by the Swiss Railway Company for hydropower production. This lake can act as a retention basin for about 46% of the Sihl catchment. Lowering the lake level to gain retention capacity, and therewith safety, is coupled with direct loss for the Railway Company. To calculate the needed retention volume and the water to be released facing unfavourable weather conditions, forecasts with a minimum lead time of 2 to 3 days are needed. Since the catchment is rather small, this can only be realised by the use of meteorological forecast data. Thus the management of the construction site depends on accurate forecasts to base their decisions on. Therefore an operational hydrological ensemble prediction system (HEPS) was introduced in September 2008 by the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL). It delivers daily discharge forecasts with a time horizon of 5 days. The meteorological forecasts are provided by MeteoSwiss and stem from the operational limited-area COSMO-LEPS which downscales the ECMWF ensemble prediction system to a spatial resolution of 7 km. Additional meteorological data for model calibration and initialisation (air temperature, precipitation, water vapour pressure, global radiation, wind speed and sunshine duration) and radar data are also provided by

  11. Tsunami Forecasting in the Atlantic Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knight, W. R.; Whitmore, P.; Sterling, K.; Hale, D. A.; Bahng, B.

    2012-12-01

    The mission of the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) is to provide advance tsunami warning and guidance to coastal communities within its Area-of-Responsibility (AOR). Predictive tsunami models, based on the shallow water wave equations, are an important part of the Center's guidance support. An Atlantic-based counterpart to the long-standing forecasting ability in the Pacific known as the Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model (ATFM) is now developed. The Atlantic forecasting method is based on ATFM version 2 which contains advanced capabilities over the original model; including better handling of the dynamic interactions between grids, inundation over dry land, new forecast model products, an optional non-hydrostatic approach, and the ability to pre-compute larger and more finely gridded regions using parallel computational techniques. The wide and nearly continuous Atlantic shelf region presents a challenge for forecast models. Our solution to this problem has been to develop a single unbroken high resolution sub-mesh (currently 30 arc-seconds), trimmed to the shelf break. This allows for edge wave propagation and for kilometer scale bathymetric feature resolution. Terminating the fine mesh at the 2000m isobath keeps the number of grid points manageable while allowing for a coarse (4 minute) mesh to adequately resolve deep water tsunami dynamics. Higher resolution sub-meshes are then included around coastal forecast points of interest. The WCATWC Atlantic AOR includes eastern U.S. and Canada, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are in very close proximity to well-known tsunami sources. Because travel times are under an hour and response must be immediate, our focus is on pre-computing many tsunami source "scenarios" and compiling those results into a database accessible and calibrated with observations during an event. Seismic source evaluation determines the order of model pre

  12. Operational seasonal forecasting of crop performance.

    PubMed

    Stone, Roger C; Meinke, Holger

    2005-11-29

    Integrated, interdisciplinary crop performance forecasting systems, linked with appropriate decision and discussion support tools, could substantially improve operational decision making in agricultural management. Recent developments in connecting numerical weather prediction models and general circulation models with quantitative crop growth models offer the potential for development of integrated systems that incorporate components of long-term climate change. However, operational seasonal forecasting systems have little or no value unless they are able to change key management decisions. Changed decision making through incorporation of seasonal forecasting ultimately has to demonstrate improved long-term performance of the cropping enterprise. Simulation analyses conducted on specific production scenarios are especially useful in improving decisions, particularly if this is done in conjunction with development of decision-support systems and associated facilitated discussion groups. Improved management of the overall crop production system requires an interdisciplinary approach, where climate scientists, agricultural scientists and extension specialists are intimately linked with crop production managers in the development of targeted seasonal forecast systems. The same principle applies in developing improved operational management systems for commodity trading organizations, milling companies and agricultural marketing organizations. Application of seasonal forecast systems across the whole value chain in agricultural production offers considerable benefits in improving overall operational management of agricultural production.

  13. Towards custom made seasonal/decadal forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahlstein, Irina; Spirig, Christoph; Liniger, Mark

    2014-05-01

    Climate indices offer the possibility to deliver information to the end user that can be easily applied to their field of work. For instance, a 3-monthly mean average temperature does not say much about the Heating Degree Days of a season, or how many frost days there are to be expected. Hence, delivering aggregated climate information can be more useful to the consumer than just raw data. In order to ensure that the end-users actually get what they need, the providers need to know what exactly they need to deliver. Hence, the specific user-needs have to be identified. In the framework of EUPORIAS, interviews with the end-user were conducted in order to learn more about the types of information that are needed. But also to investigate what knowledge exists among the users about seasonal/decadal forecasting and in what way uncertainties are taken into account. It is important that we gain better knowledge of how forecasts/predictions are applied by the end-user to their specific situation and business. EUPORIAS, which is embedded in the framework of EU FP7, aims exactly to improve that knowledge and deliver very specific forecasts that are custom made. Here we present examples of seasonal forecasts and their skill of several climate impact indices with direct relevance for specific economic sectors, such as energy. The results are compared to the visualization of conventional depiction of seasonal forecasts, such as 3 monthly average temperature tercile probabilities and the differences are highlighted.

  14. Forecasts of solar and geomagnetic activity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joselyn, Joann

    1987-01-01

    Forecasts of solar and geomagnetic activity are critical since these quantities are such important inputs to the thermospheric density models. At this time in the history of solar science there is no way to make such a forecast from first principles. Physical theory applied to the Sun is developing rapidly, but is still primitive. Techniques used for forecasting depend upon the observations over about 130 years, which is only twelve solar cycles. It has been noted that even-numbered cycles systematically tend to be smaller than the odd-numbered ones by about 20 percent. Another observation is that for the last 12 cycle pairs, an even-numbered sunspot cycle looks rather like the next odd-numbered cycle, but with the top cut off. These observations are examples of approximate periodicities that forecasters try to use to achieve some insight into the nature of an upcoming cycle. Another new and useful forecasting aid is a correlation that has been noted between geomagnetic indices and the size of the next solar cycle. Some best estimates are given concerning both activities.

  15. Forecasting the Emergency Department Patients Flow.

    PubMed

    Afilal, Mohamed; Yalaoui, Farouk; Dugardin, Frédéric; Amodeo, Lionel; Laplanche, David; Blua, Philippe

    2016-07-01

    Emergency department (ED) have become the patient's main point of entrance in modern hospitals causing it frequent overcrowding, thus hospital managers are increasingly paying attention to the ED in order to provide better quality service for patients. One of the key elements for a good management strategy is demand forecasting. In this case, forecasting patients flow, which will help decision makers to optimize human (doctors, nurses…) and material(beds, boxs…) resources allocation. The main interest of this research is forecasting daily attendance at an emergency department. The study was conducted on the Emergency Department of Troyes city hospital center, France, in which we propose a new practical ED patients classification that consolidate the CCMU and GEMSA categories into one category and innovative time-series based models to forecast long and short term daily attendance. The models we developed for this case study shows very good performances (up to 91,24 % for the annual Total flow forecast) and robustness to epidemic periods.

  16. Operational seasonal forecasting of crop performance.

    PubMed

    Stone, Roger C; Meinke, Holger

    2005-11-29

    Integrated, interdisciplinary crop performance forecasting systems, linked with appropriate decision and discussion support tools, could substantially improve operational decision making in agricultural management. Recent developments in connecting numerical weather prediction models and general circulation models with quantitative crop growth models offer the potential for development of integrated systems that incorporate components of long-term climate change. However, operational seasonal forecasting systems have little or no value unless they are able to change key management decisions. Changed decision making through incorporation of seasonal forecasting ultimately has to demonstrate improved long-term performance of the cropping enterprise. Simulation analyses conducted on specific production scenarios are especially useful in improving decisions, particularly if this is done in conjunction with development of decision-support systems and associated facilitated discussion groups. Improved management of the overall crop production system requires an interdisciplinary approach, where climate scientists, agricultural scientists and extension specialists are intimately linked with crop production managers in the development of targeted seasonal forecast systems. The same principle applies in developing improved operational management systems for commodity trading organizations, milling companies and agricultural marketing organizations. Application of seasonal forecast systems across the whole value chain in agricultural production offers considerable benefits in improving overall operational management of agricultural production. PMID:16433097

  17. In Brief: Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2007-12-01

    Two hurricane forecasters are predicting that 2008 will be an above-average Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season with an above-average probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the United States. During 2008, there could be about seven hurricanes (the annual average is 5.9) and 13 named storms (the average is 9.6), according to a 7 December report by Philip Klotzbach, research scientist at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, and William Gray, university professor emeritus of atmospheric sciences. The forecasters indicate that they believe the Atlantic basin is in an active hurricane cycle that is associated with a strong thermohaline circulation and an active phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The report notes that, ``real-time operational early December forecasts have not shown forecast skill over climatology during this 16-year period [1992-2007]. This has occurred despite the fact that the skill over the hindcast period...showed appreciable skill.'' For more information, visit the Web site: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2007/dec2007/dec2007.pdf.

  18. Monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scollo, S.; Prestifilippo, M.; Spata, G.; D'Agostino, M.; Coltelli, M.

    2009-09-01

    In this paper we describe the results of a project ongoing at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). The objective is to develop and implement a system for monitoring and forecasting volcanic plumes of Etna. Monitoring is based at present by multispectral infrared measurements from the Spin Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager on board the Meteosat Second Generation geosynchronous satellite, visual and thermal cameras, and three radar disdrometers able to detect ash dispersal and fallout. Forecasting is performed by using automatic procedures for: i) downloading weather forecast data from meteorological mesoscale models; ii) running models of tephra dispersal, iii) plotting hazard maps of volcanic ash dispersal and deposition for certain scenarios and, iv) publishing the results on a web-site dedicated to the Italian Civil Protection. Simulations are based on eruptive scenarios obtained by analysing field data collected after the end of recent Etna eruptions. Forecasting is, hence, supported by plume observations carried out by the monitoring system. The system was tested on some explosive events occurred during 2006 and 2007 successfully. The potentiality use of monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes, in a way to prevent threats to aviation from volcanic ash, is finally discussed.

  19. Heterogeneity: The key to failure forecasting

    PubMed Central

    Vasseur, Jérémie; Wadsworth, Fabian B.; Lavallée, Yan; Bell, Andrew F.; Main, Ian G.; Dingwell, Donald B.

    2015-01-01

    Elastic waves are generated when brittle materials are subjected to increasing strain. Their number and energy increase non-linearly, ending in a system-sized catastrophic failure event. Accelerating rates of geophysical signals (e.g., seismicity and deformation) preceding large-scale dynamic failure can serve as proxies for damage accumulation in the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Here we test the hypothesis that the style and mechanisms of deformation, and the accuracy of the FFM, are both tightly controlled by the degree of microstructural heterogeneity of the material under stress. We generate a suite of synthetic samples with variable heterogeneity, controlled by the gas volume fraction. We experimentally demonstrate that the accuracy of failure prediction increases drastically with the degree of material heterogeneity. These results have significant implications in a broad range of material-based disciplines for which failure forecasting is of central importance. In particular, the FFM has been used with only variable success to forecast failure scenarios both in the field (volcanic eruptions and landslides) and in the laboratory (rock and magma failure). Our results show that this variability may be explained, and the reliability and accuracy of forecast quantified significantly improved, by accounting for material heterogeneity as a first-order control on forecasting power. PMID:26307196

  20. Heterogeneity: The key to failure forecasting.

    PubMed

    Vasseur, Jérémie; Wadsworth, Fabian B; Lavallée, Yan; Bell, Andrew F; Main, Ian G; Dingwell, Donald B

    2015-08-26

    Elastic waves are generated when brittle materials are subjected to increasing strain. Their number and energy increase non-linearly, ending in a system-sized catastrophic failure event. Accelerating rates of geophysical signals (e.g., seismicity and deformation) preceding large-scale dynamic failure can serve as proxies for damage accumulation in the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Here we test the hypothesis that the style and mechanisms of deformation, and the accuracy of the FFM, are both tightly controlled by the degree of microstructural heterogeneity of the material under stress. We generate a suite of synthetic samples with variable heterogeneity, controlled by the gas volume fraction. We experimentally demonstrate that the accuracy of failure prediction increases drastically with the degree of material heterogeneity. These results have significant implications in a broad range of material-based disciplines for which failure forecasting is of central importance. In particular, the FFM has been used with only variable success to forecast failure scenarios both in the field (volcanic eruptions and landslides) and in the laboratory (rock and magma failure). Our results show that this variability may be explained, and the reliability and accuracy of forecast quantified significantly improved, by accounting for material heterogeneity as a first-order control on forecasting power.

  1. Coastal ocean forecasting systems in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dugan, John

    During my tour as the liaison oceanographer at the Office of Naval Research's European branch, I conducted a focused study of coastal ocean forecasting systems. This study is of direct interest to ONR because of an increased interest in the coastal zone and to the civilian U.S. oceanographic community because of numerous problems in the coastal zone that could be alleviated with an operational forecasting system. The Europeans have a long history of excellent research and developmental work in this area. The Europeans' distinguished history in coastal ocean forecasting is due in part to their strong dependence on the sea. However, the original motivation for these systems was the recognition early in this century that weather conditions were responsible for damaging storm surges around the periphery of the North Sea and that science could predict these catastrophic floods. Forecasting systems called tide-surge prediction systems, which provide warnings of impending flood conditions, were designed and constructed and are operational in the various meteorological centers of the nations surrounding the North Sea. Over time, the services have been extended to provide forecasts of ocean waves, water depth for navigation, and currents for a large customer base. These systems now are being extended further into the three-dimensional domain that is required for management of problems associated with water quality, pollution, and aquaculture and fisheries interests.

  2. Does money matter in inflation forecasting?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Binner, J. M.; Tino, P.; Tepper, J.; Anderson, R.; Jones, B.; Kendall, G.

    2010-11-01

    This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two nonlinear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression-techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naïve random walk model. The best models were nonlinear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation. Beyond its economic findings, our study is in the tradition of physicists’ long-standing interest in the interconnections among statistical mechanics, neural networks, and related nonparametric statistical methods, and suggests potential avenues of extension for such studies.

  3. Forecast Mekong 2012: Building scientific capacity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stefanov, James E.

    2012-01-01

    In 2009, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton joined the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam in launching the Lower Mekong Initiative to enhance U.S. engagement with the countries of the Lower Mekong River Basin in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. The U.S. Geological Survey Forecast Mekong supports the Lower Mekong Initiative through a variety of activities. The principal objectives of Forecast Mekong include the following: * Build scientific capacity in the Lower Mekong Basin and promote cooperation and collaboration among scientists working in the region. * Provide data, information, and scientific models to help resource managers there make informed decisions. * Produce forecasting and visualization tools to support basin planning, including climate change adaptation. The focus of this product is Forecast Mekong accomplishments and current activities related to the development of scientific capacity at organizations and institutions in the region. Building on accomplishments in 2010 and 2011, Forecast Mekong continues to enhance scientific capacity in the Lower Mekong Basin with a suite of activities in 2012.

  4. Forecasting the Emergency Department Patients Flow.

    PubMed

    Afilal, Mohamed; Yalaoui, Farouk; Dugardin, Frédéric; Amodeo, Lionel; Laplanche, David; Blua, Philippe

    2016-07-01

    Emergency department (ED) have become the patient's main point of entrance in modern hospitals causing it frequent overcrowding, thus hospital managers are increasingly paying attention to the ED in order to provide better quality service for patients. One of the key elements for a good management strategy is demand forecasting. In this case, forecasting patients flow, which will help decision makers to optimize human (doctors, nurses…) and material(beds, boxs…) resources allocation. The main interest of this research is forecasting daily attendance at an emergency department. The study was conducted on the Emergency Department of Troyes city hospital center, France, in which we propose a new practical ED patients classification that consolidate the CCMU and GEMSA categories into one category and innovative time-series based models to forecast long and short term daily attendance. The models we developed for this case study shows very good performances (up to 91,24 % for the annual Total flow forecast) and robustness to epidemic periods. PMID:27272135

  5. Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barrett, Joe H., III

    2010-01-01

    The expected peak wind speed of the day is an important forecast element in the 45th Weather Squadron's (45 WS) daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts. The forecasts are used for ground and space launch operations at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45 WS also issues wind advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect wind gusts to meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated peak wind speeds are challenging to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October - April. In Phase I of this task, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool to help the 45 WS forecast non-convective winds at KSC/CCAFS for the 24-hour period of 0800 to 0800 local time. The tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI). The GUI displayed the forecast of peak wind speed, 5-minute average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, timing of the peak wind and probability the peak speed would meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt. For the current task (Phase II ), the 45 WS requested additional observations be used for the creation of the forecast equations by expanding the period of record (POR). Additional parameters were evaluated as predictors, including wind speeds between 500 ft and 3000 ft, static stability classification, Bulk Richardson Number, mixing depth, vertical wind shear, temperature inversion strength and depth and wind direction. Using a verification data set, the AMU compared the performance of the Phase I and II prediction methods. Just as in Phase I, the tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel GUI. The 45 WS requested the tool also be available in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The AMU first expanded the POR by two years by adding tower observations, surface observations and CCAFS (XMR) soundings for the cool season months of March 2007 to April 2009. The POR was expanded

  6. Operational seasonal forecasting of crop performance

    PubMed Central

    Stone, Roger C; Meinke, Holger

    2005-01-01

    Integrated, interdisciplinary crop performance forecasting systems, linked with appropriate decision and discussion support tools, could substantially improve operational decision making in agricultural management. Recent developments in connecting numerical weather prediction models and general circulation models with quantitative crop growth models offer the potential for development of integrated systems that incorporate components of long-term climate change. However, operational seasonal forecasting systems have little or no value unless they are able to change key management decisions. Changed decision making through incorporation of seasonal forecasting ultimately has to demonstrate improved long-term performance of the cropping enterprise. Simulation analyses conducted on specific production scenarios are especially useful in improving decisions, particularly if this is done in conjunction with development of decision-support systems and associated facilitated discussion groups. Improved management of the overall crop production system requires an interdisciplinary approach, where climate scientists, agricultural scientists and extension specialists are intimately linked with crop production managers in the development of targeted seasonal forecast systems. The same principle applies in developing improved operational management systems for commodity trading organizations, milling companies and agricultural marketing organizations. Application of seasonal forecast systems across the whole value chain in agricultural production offers considerable benefits in improving overall operational management of agricultural production. PMID:16433097

  7. Space weather forecasting: Past, Present, Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lanzerotti, L. J.

    2012-12-01

    There have been revolutionary advances in electrical technologies over the last 160 years. The historical record demonstrates that space weather processes have often provided surprises in the implementation and operation of many of these technologies. The historical record also demonstrates that as the complexity of systems increase, including their interconnectedness and interoperability, they can become more susceptible to space weather effects. An engineering goal, beginning during the decades following the 1859 Carrington event, has been to attempt to forecast solar-produced disturbances that could affect technical systems, be they long grounded conductor-based or radio-based or required for exploration, or the increasingly complex systems immersed in the space environment itself. Forecasting of space weather events involves both frontier measurements and models to address engineering requirements, and industrial and governmental policies that encourage and permit creativity and entrepreneurship. While analogies of space weather forecasting to terrestrial weather forecasting are frequently made, and while many of the analogies are valid, there are also important differences. This presentation will provide some historical perspectives on the forecast problem, a personal assessment of current status of several areas including important policy issues, and a look into the not-too-distant future.

  8. Heterogeneity: The key to failure forecasting.

    PubMed

    Vasseur, Jérémie; Wadsworth, Fabian B; Lavallée, Yan; Bell, Andrew F; Main, Ian G; Dingwell, Donald B

    2015-01-01

    Elastic waves are generated when brittle materials are subjected to increasing strain. Their number and energy increase non-linearly, ending in a system-sized catastrophic failure event. Accelerating rates of geophysical signals (e.g., seismicity and deformation) preceding large-scale dynamic failure can serve as proxies for damage accumulation in the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Here we test the hypothesis that the style and mechanisms of deformation, and the accuracy of the FFM, are both tightly controlled by the degree of microstructural heterogeneity of the material under stress. We generate a suite of synthetic samples with variable heterogeneity, controlled by the gas volume fraction. We experimentally demonstrate that the accuracy of failure prediction increases drastically with the degree of material heterogeneity. These results have significant implications in a broad range of material-based disciplines for which failure forecasting is of central importance. In particular, the FFM has been used with only variable success to forecast failure scenarios both in the field (volcanic eruptions and landslides) and in the laboratory (rock and magma failure). Our results show that this variability may be explained, and the reliability and accuracy of forecast quantified significantly improved, by accounting for material heterogeneity as a first-order control on forecasting power. PMID:26307196

  9. Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Adoption by Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garbrecht, Jurgen; Meinke, Holger; Sivakumar, Mannava V. K.; Motha, Raymond P.; Salinger, Michael J.

    2005-06-01

    Recent advances in atmospheric and ocean sciences and a better understanding of the global climate have led to skillful climate forecasts at seasonal to interannual timescales, even in midlatitudes. These scientific advances and forecasting capabilities have opened the door to practical applications that benefit society. The benefits include the reduction of weather/climate related risks and vulnerability, increased economic opportunities, enhanced food security, mitigation of adverse climate impacts, protection of environmental quality, and so forth. Agriculture in particular can benefit substantially from accurate long-lead seasonal climate forecasts. Indeed, agricultural production very much depends on weather, climate, and water availability, and unexpected departures from anticipated climate conditions can thwart the best laid management plans. Timely climate forecasts offer means to reduce losses in drought years, increase profitability in good years, deal more effectively with climate variability, and choose from targeted risk-management strategies. In addition to benefiting farmers, forecasts can also help marketing systems and downstream users prepare for anticipated production outcomes and associated consequences.

  10. Worst case forecasting of Hurricane Irene (2011)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffman, R. N.; Gombos, D.; Woods, B. K.

    2012-04-01

    Worst case scenarios for wind damage from Hurricane Irene are estimated from an ensemble of surface wind speed forecasts. Damage at any point is modeled by applying a simple damage function to census data estimates of property values. The forecast damage ensemble provides an estimate of the covariance structure of the damage. Under the assumption that the damage is multivariate Gaussian (mG), the damage covariance defines a high dimensional ellipsoidal surface for any probability quantile. The damage maximizing point on that ellipsoid, i.e., the ``exigent'' scenario, is found by the method of Lagrangian multipliers according to the Exigent Analysis Theorem (EAT). We will present the evolution of the exigent scenario as calculated at different forecast initial times and compare these forecast worst case estimates to the actual damage. We will also explore methods to quantify deviations from the mG assumption and their impact on our analysis. The EAT also provides the least damaging (or best case) scenario and this enables us to present the relative uncertainty of the damage forecasts and how this uncertainty evolves in terms of worst case minus best case damage maps.

  11. Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

    2015-12-01

    The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help

  12. Evaluation of Forecast Performance on Asian Summer Monsoon Low Level Wind Using TIGGE Dataset

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruoyun, Niu

    2016-04-01

    The forecast performance of EASM (East Asia summer monsoon) and SASM (South Asia summer monsoon) for six TIGGE (the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) centers in the summers of 2008-2013 are evaluated to reflect the current predictability of the state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction. The results show that EASM is overestimated by all the TIGGE centers (except the Canadian Meteorological Center, CMC). SASM is also over-predicted by ECMWF (the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), CMA (the China Meteorological Administration) and CMC but conversely under-predicted by JMA (the Japan Meteorological Agency), Additionally, SASM is overestimated for the early lead times and underestimated for the longer lead times by NCEP (the National Centers for Environmental Prediction) and UKMO (the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO). Further analysis suggests such biases are likely to the associated with those in the related land-sea thermal contrasts. EASM surge is basically overestimated by NCEP and CMA and mainly underestimated by the others. The bias predictabilities for SASM surge are similar to that of SASM. The peaks of SASM and EASM including their surges are mainly underestimated while the valleys are mostly overestimated. By comparison, ECMWF and UKMO have overall the highest forecast skills in predicting SASM and EASM and both have respective advantages. All the TIGGE centers generally show higher skills in predicting SASM than EASM. The forecast skills of SASM and EASM are superior to that of their respective surges. Moreover, the bias-correction forecast skills tend to be improved with higher correlation coefficients in raw forecast verification.

  13. Downscaling of digital temperature forecasts in mountainous terrain under the inversion condition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, S.; Kim, J.; Kim, D.; Yun, J.

    2013-12-01

    An adequate downscaling of the official forecasts of national meteorological service is a prerequisite to improving the value and utility of agrometeorological information in rural areas, where in many countries complex terrain and small farms constitute major features of the landscape. In this study, we suggest a simple correction scheme for scaling down the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) temperature forecasts from mesoscale (5km by 5km) to the local scale (30m by 30m) across a rural catchment, especially under temperature inversion conditions. The study area is a rural catchment of 50km2 area with complex terrain and located on a southern slope of Mountain Jiri National Park. Temperature forecasts for 0600 LST on 62 days with temperature inversion were selected from the fall 2011 - spring 2012 KMA data archive. A geospatial correction scheme which can simulate both cold air drainage and the so-called ';thermal belt' was used to derive the site-specific temperature deviation across the study area at a 30m by 30m resolution from the original 5km by 5km forecast grids. The observed temperature data at 12 validation sites within the study area showed a substantial reduction in forecast error: from ×2C to ×1C in the mean error range and from 1.9C to 1.6C in the root mean square error. Improvement was most remarkable at low lying locations showing frequent cold pooling events. Temperature prediction error was less than 2C for more than 80% of the observed inversion cases and less than 1C for half of the cases. Temperature forecasts corrected by this scheme may accelerate implementation of the freeze and frost early warning service for major fruits growing regions in Korea.

  14. Towards guided data assimilation for operational hydrologic forecasting in the US Tennessee River basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weerts, Albrecht; Wood, Andy; Carney, Shaun; Day, Jay; Lemans, Matthijs; Sumihar, Julius; Verkade, Jan; Newman, Andy

    2015-04-01

    In the US, the forecasting approach used by the NWS River Forecast Centers and other regional organizations such as the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) or Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) has traditionally involved manual model input and state modifications made by forecasters in real-time. This process is time consuming and requires expert knowledge and experience. The benefits of automated data assimilation (DA) as a strategy for avoiding manual modification approaches have been demonstrated in research studies (eg. Seo et al., 2009). This study explores the usage of various ensemble DA algorithms within the operational platform used by TVA. The final goal is to identify a DA algorithm that will guide the manual modification process used by TVA forecasters and realize considerable time gains (without loss of quality or even enhance the quality) within the forecast process. We evaluate the usability of various popular algorithms for DA that have been applied on a limited basis for operational hydrology. To this end, Delft-FEWS was wrapped (via piwebservice) in OpenDA to enable execution of FEWS workflows (and the chained models within these workflows, including SACSMA, UNITHG and LAGK) in a DA framework. Within OpenDA, several filter methods are available. We considered 4 algorithms: particle filter (RRF), Ensemble Kalman Filter and Asynchronous Ensemble Kalman and Particle filter. The initial results are promising. We will present verification results for these methods (and possible more) for a variety of sub basins in the Tennessee River basin. Finally, we will offer recommendations for guided DA based on our results. References Seo, D.-J., L. Cajina, R. Corby and T. Howieson, 2009: Automatic State Updating for Operational Streamflow Forecasting via Variational Data Assimilation, 367, Journal of Hydrology, 255-275.

  15. The Role of Model and Initial Condition Error in Numerical Weather Forecasting Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prive, Nikki C.; Errico, Ronald M.

    2013-01-01

    A series of experiments that explore the roles of model and initial condition error in numerical weather prediction are performed using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO). The use of an OSSE allows the analysis and forecast errors to be explicitly calculated, and different hypothetical observing networks can be tested with ease. In these experiments, both a full global OSSE framework and an 'identical twin' OSSE setup are utilized to compare the behavior of the data assimilation system and evolution of forecast skill with and without model error. The initial condition error is manipulated by varying the distribution and quality of the observing network and the magnitude of observation errors. The results show that model error has a strong impact on both the quality of the analysis field and the evolution of forecast skill, including both systematic and unsystematic model error components. With a realistic observing network, the analysis state retains a significant quantity of error due to systematic model error. If errors of the analysis state are minimized, model error acts to rapidly degrade forecast skill during the first 24-48 hours of forward integration. In the presence of model error, the impact of observation errors on forecast skill is small, but in the absence of model error, observation errors cause a substantial degradation of the skill of medium range forecasts.

  16. Convective Weather Forecast Accuracy Analysis at Center and Sector Levels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Yao; Sridhar, Banavar

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a detailed convective forecast accuracy analysis at center and sector levels. The study is aimed to provide more meaningful forecast verification measures to aviation community, as well as to obtain useful information leading to the improvements in the weather translation capacity models. In general, the vast majority of forecast verification efforts over past decades have been on the calculation of traditional standard verification measure scores over forecast and observation data analyses onto grids. These verification measures based on the binary classification have been applied in quality assurance of weather forecast products at the national level for many years. Our research focuses on the forecast at the center and sector levels. We calculate the standard forecast verification measure scores for en-route air traffic centers and sectors first, followed by conducting the forecast validation analysis and related verification measures for weather intensities and locations at centers and sectors levels. An approach to improve the prediction of sector weather coverage by multiple sector forecasts is then developed. The weather severe intensity assessment was carried out by using the correlations between forecast and actual weather observation airspace coverage. The weather forecast accuracy on horizontal location was assessed by examining the forecast errors. The improvement in prediction of weather coverage was determined by the correlation between actual sector weather coverage and prediction. observed and forecasted Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) data collected from June to September in 2007. CWAM zero-minute forecast data with aircraft avoidance probability of 60% and 80% are used as the actual weather observation. All forecast measurements are based on 30-minute, 60- minute, 90-minute, and 120-minute forecasts with the same avoidance probabilities. The forecast accuracy analysis for times under one-hour showed that the errors in

  17. Market turning points forecasting using wavelet analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bai, Limiao; Yan, Sen; Zheng, Xiaolian; Chen, Ben M.

    2015-11-01

    Based on the system adaptation framework we previously proposed, a frequency domain based model is developed in this paper to forecast the major turning points of stock markets. This system adaptation framework has its internal model and adaptive filter to capture the slow and fast dynamics of the market, respectively. The residue of the internal model is found to contain rich information about the market cycles. In order to extract and restore its informative frequency components, we use wavelet multi-resolution analysis with time-varying parameters to decompose this internal residue. An empirical index is then proposed based on the recovered signals to forecast the market turning points. This index is successfully applied to US, UK and China markets, where all major turning points are well forecasted.

  18. Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections

    PubMed Central

    Benjamin, Daniel J.; Shapiro, Jesse M.

    2010-01-01

    We showed 10-second, silent video clips of unfamiliar gubernatorial debates to a group of experimental participants and asked them to predict the election outcomes. The participants’ predictions explain more than 20 percent of the variation in the actual two-party vote share across the 58 elections in our study, and their importance survives a range of controls, including state fixed effects. In a horse race of alternative forecasting models, participants’ forecasts significantly outperform economic variables in predicting vote shares, and are comparable in predictive power to a measure of incumbency status. Participants’ forecasts seem to rest on judgments of candidates’ personal attributes (such as likeability), rather than inferences about candidates’ policy positions. Though conclusive causal inference is not possible in our context, our findings may be seen as suggestive evidence of a causal effect of candidate appeal on election outcomes. PMID:20431718

  19. The promise and peril of healthcare forecasting.

    PubMed

    Wharam, J Frank; Weiner, Jonathan P

    2012-03-01

    Health plans and physician groups increasingly use sophisticated tools to predict individual patient outcomes. Such analytics will accelerate as US medicine enters the digital age. Promising applications of forecasting include better targeting of disease management as well as innovative patient care approaches such as personalized health insurance and clinical decision support systems. In addition, stakeholders will use predictions to advance their organizational agendas, and unintended consequences could arise. Forecasting-based interventions might have uncertain effectiveness, focus on cost savings rather than long-term health, or specifically exclude disadvantaged populations. Policy makers, health plans, and method developers should adopt strategies that address these concerns in order to maximize the benefit of healthcare forecasting on the long-term health of patients.

  20. Real-time forecasts of dengue epidemics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamana, T. K.; Shaman, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease prevalent in the tropics and subtropics, with an estimated 2.5 billion people at risk of transmission. In many areas with endemic dengue, disease transmission is seasonal but prone to high inter-annual variability with occasional severe epidemics. Predicting and preparing for periods of higher than average transmission is a significant public health challenge. Here we present a model of dengue transmission and a framework for optimizing model simulations with real-time observational data of dengue cases and environmental variables in order to generate ensemble-based forecasts of the timing and severity of disease outbreaks. The model-inference system is validated using synthetic data and dengue outbreak records. Retrospective forecasts are generated for a number of locations and the accuracy of these forecasts is quantified.