Science.gov

Sample records for administration faa forecasts

  1. FAA Aviation Forecasts

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-02-01

    General Aviation .... ....... 110 General Economic Growth .......... .................. 110 Cost Factors ..................................... 110...General Aviation Aircraft Cost Indices ......... .. 261 -ii i Table of Contents (Continued) Page Appendix H: FAA Towered Airports...to GNP Growth (Constant Dollars) ..... 22 Commercial Air Carriers U.S. Air Carrier Revenue and Cost Trends .... ............... .28 Industry Operating

  2. FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) Aviation Forecasts - Fiscal Years 1984-1995,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1984-02-01

    available to the public Taxi, Aviation Activity Forecasts, through the National Technical Comuters, Federal Aviation Administra- Information Service , tion...statutory mission, that being " service to the Nation by providing a safe and efficient aviation system which contributes to national security and the...proved insufficient to justify regularly scheduled service . Airline deregulation has accelerated this process with the Majors and Nationals concentrating

  3. FAA Aviation Forecasts, Fiscal Years 1994-2005

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-03-01

    Concord, CA (CCR) Santa Barbara, CA (SBA) El Monte, CA (EMT) Santa Maria Public, CA (SMX) H-1 FAA TOWERED AIRPORTS Santa Monica, CA (SMO) Sanford, Fl...Juan Isla Grande, PR (SIG) Kwajalein AAF, WK (KWA) Pago Pago International, AS (TUT) H-6 APPENDIX I CONTRACT TOWERS 1. Flagstaff, Arizona (FLG) 2

  4. FAA Forecast Conference Proceedings (6th) Held at Washington, DC on 21 October 1980.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-10-01

    specialized Oper.ratilonis miarkets, i nclur~d ing ra rt icuIa rly,, those that are to a high AN Year agro the FAA prolec -ted that 25) air r . ,rrier...JO Six Annual r 4 . ~FAA Forecast Conference -... Proceedings & u /]-/ " j, Oct8iLC Table of Contents ’.7 I L Part I: Introduction 2 Proceedings...lrowl Ii in FAA workload hig.Inaito ohsrg totti ihhghe o\\ er thle ne\\t 12 years. or)i thle o rder (it 3 piercent per pri( es and othe( r (osts. genieral

  5. First Annual FAA General Aviation Forecast Conference Proceedings

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-03-01

    pilot’s perspective. I have a 30-year background as an executive in communications, principally in television , but I am also an aircraft owner and have...contrasting this with the business I came from -- television , which is gauged and governed by the TV rating business, which includes overnight ratings. We...ago following the Ceritos, California midair collision between a general aviation aircraft and a Mexicana airliner, the FAA released a study calling for

  6. FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) Air Traffic Activity FY 1986.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1986-09-30

    AIRPORTS WITH FAA-3PSRATEO TRAFIC CONTROL TVWERS RY STATE (CONTINUED) STAT? AND LOCATION U AIR AI6 GENERAL LOCATION NAME IENTIFIPR 8 TOTAL CARRISR...0 0 0 LINUE "I 1 ZM4 3497 1273 99 74 251 LIMA ALLEN COUNTY 31 N ZI0 17 0 2 15 3LINCNFIELO IL N iC 4 0 0 4 2 LINCOLN LOGAN COUNTY IL S I S*I 9 0 0 9 0...VIRGINIA LENISBURG GREENBRIER ELWIS N 2100. %v TABLE n FISCAL YEAR 196 OPEIRATIONS AT AtFPORTS WITN CONTIRACTOR-3PERATED TRAFIC C0N11)L VtflERS BY STATE

  7. 14 CFR 193.15 - What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part? 193.15 Section 193.15 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION... SUBMITTED INFORMATION § 193.15 What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under...

  8. 14 CFR 193.15 - What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part? 193.15 Section 193.15 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION... SUBMITTED INFORMATION § 193.15 What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under...

  9. 14 CFR 193.15 - What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part? 193.15 Section 193.15 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION... SUBMITTED INFORMATION § 193.15 What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under...

  10. 14 CFR 193.15 - What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part? 193.15 Section 193.15 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION... SUBMITTED INFORMATION § 193.15 What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under...

  11. 14 CFR 193.15 - What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under this part? 193.15 Section 193.15 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION... SUBMITTED INFORMATION § 193.15 What FAA officials exercise the authority of the Administrator under...

  12. 41 CFR 102-75.405 - What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and a copy of... responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and...

  13. 41 CFR 102-75.405 - What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and a copy of... responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and...

  14. 41 CFR 102-75.405 - What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and a copy of... responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and...

  15. 41 CFR 102-75.405 - What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false What responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and a copy of... responsibilities does the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have after receiving a copy of the notice (and...

  16. 14 CFR 11.21 - What are the most common kinds of rulemaking actions for which FAA follows the Administrative...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false What are the most common kinds of rulemaking actions for which FAA follows the Administrative Procedure Act? 11.21 Section 11.21 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES...

  17. 41 CFR 102-37.535 - What information must FAA provide to GSA on its administration of the public airport donation...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... FAA provide to GSA on its administration of the public airport donation program? 102-37.535 Section... (Continued) FEDERAL MANAGEMENT REGULATION PERSONAL PROPERTY 37-DONATION OF SURPLUS PERSONAL PROPERTY Donations to Public Airports § 102-37.535 What information must FAA provide to GSA on its administration...

  18. HEMP (High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse) validation of FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) radio facility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanders, Stephen C.

    1989-05-01

    The Harry Diamond Lab. provided high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) and partial lightning hardness verification testing to a high-frequency radio facility for the FAA. The facility consisted of a shielded enclosure with antennas and cables connected through protective devices at the shield to dummy loads within the shield. It was exposed to low-level radiation with measurements of internal fields extrapolated to threat levels and compared to specific criteria. Each typical penetration was injected with a simulated lightning source, and internal measurements were compared to specific criteria. Although criteria were not always met, it was judged with confidence that the facility would protect radio equipment. It was noted that the ac power spark gap would remain shorted until ac power shut down, resulting in system upset.

  19. FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) Aviation Forecasts, Fiscal Years 1990-2001

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-03-01

    Chico, CA (CIC) San Luis Obispo, CA (SBP) Chino, CA (CNO) Santa Ana, CA (SNA) Concord, CA (CCR) Santa Barbara, CA (SBA) El Monte, CA (EMT) Santa Maria ...San Juan International, PR (SJU) San Antonio Stinson, TX (SSF) San Juan Isla Grande, PR (SIG) Tomball D. W. Hooks, TX (DWH) Kwajalein AAF, WK (KWA

  20. FAA Perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bond, Tom

    2009-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation describes the Federal Aviation Administration's perspective on improvements on aircraft icing. The most important areas that are discussed include: 1) Improvements in SLD engineering tools to meet concerns about means of compliance (MOC); and 2) 3-D iced aerodynamics.

  1. 14 CFR 157.7 - FAA determinations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false FAA determinations. 157.7 Section 157.7 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (CONTINUED) AIRPORTS.... (a) The FAA will conduct an aeronautical study of an airport proposal and, after consultations...

  2. 14 CFR 145.223 - FAA inspections.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false FAA inspections. 145.223 Section 145.223 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (CONTINUED) SCHOOLS AND OTHER CERTIFICATED AGENCIES REPAIR STATIONS Operating Rules § 145.223 FAA inspections. (a)...

  3. The systems approach to airport security: The FAA (Federal Aviation Administration)/BWI (Baltimore-Washington International) Airport demonstration project

    SciTech Connect

    Caskey, D.L.; Olascoaga, M.T.

    1990-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has been involved in designing, installing and evaluating security systems for various applications during the past 15 years. A systems approach to security that evolved from this experience was applied to aviation security for the Federal Aviation Administration. A general systems study of aviation security in the United States was concluded in 1987. One result of the study was a recommendation that an enhanced security system concept designed to meet specified objectives be demonstrated at an operational airport. Baltimore-Washington International Airport was selected as the site for the demonstration project which began in 1988 and will be completed in 1992. This article introduced the systems approach to airport security and discussed its application at Baltimore-Washington International Airport. Examples of design features that could be included in an enhanced security concept also were presented, including details of the proposed Ramps Area Intrusion Detection System (RAIDS).

  4. FAA Training. Continued Improvements Needed in FAA's Controller Field Training Program. Report to Congressional Requesters.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    General Accounting Office, Washington, DC. Resources, Community, and Economic Development Div.

    Having examined the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) current program for providing field training to developmental and full-performance-level air traffic controllers, the General Accounting Office (GAO) recommends ensuring that FAA and contractor personnel are providing training consistently and uniformly. Further changes needed to ensure…

  5. 14 CFR 21.615 - FAA inspection.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false FAA inspection. 21.615 Section 21.615 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT CERTIFICATION... quality control system; (c) Witness any tests; (d) Inspect the manufacturing facilities; and (e)...

  6. Future FAA Telecommunications Plan

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-08-01

    Equipment at the Position Each position will have identical ICSS modules. The quantities of modules available at each position will depend upon the...connectivity will be provided by FAA-owned cable at some locations and leased services (on-airport) at others, depending on local conditions. 16.6 DIVERSITY...others, depending on local conditions. Specific protocol, transmission, and hardware requirements will be provided in a future edition of this document

  7. 14 CFR 11.25 - How does FAA issue rules?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false How does FAA issue rules? 11.25 Section 11.25 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES GENERAL RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.25 How does FAA issue rules?...

  8. 14 CFR 49.11 - FAA Aircraft Registry.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false FAA Aircraft Registry. 49.11 Section 49.11 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT RECORDING OF AIRCRAFT TITLES AND SECURITY DOCUMENTS General § 49.11 FAA Aircraft Registry. To be eligible for...

  9. 14 CFR 49.11 - FAA Aircraft Registry.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false FAA Aircraft Registry. 49.11 Section 49.11 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT RECORDING OF AIRCRAFT TITLES AND SECURITY DOCUMENTS General § 49.11 FAA Aircraft Registry. To be eligible for...

  10. 14 CFR 49.11 - FAA Aircraft Registry.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false FAA Aircraft Registry. 49.11 Section 49.11 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT RECORDING OF AIRCRAFT TITLES AND SECURITY DOCUMENTS General § 49.11 FAA Aircraft Registry. To be eligible for...

  11. 14 CFR 49.11 - FAA Aircraft Registry.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false FAA Aircraft Registry. 49.11 Section 49.11 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT RECORDING OF AIRCRAFT TITLES AND SECURITY DOCUMENTS General § 49.11 FAA Aircraft Registry. To be eligible for...

  12. 14 CFR 49.11 - FAA Aircraft Registry.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false FAA Aircraft Registry. 49.11 Section 49.11 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT RECORDING OF AIRCRAFT TITLES AND SECURITY DOCUMENTS General § 49.11 FAA Aircraft Registry. To be eligible for...

  13. 14 CFR 47.19 - FAA Aircraft Registry.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false FAA Aircraft Registry. 47.19 Section 47.19 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRCRAFT REGISTRATION General § 47.19 FAA Aircraft Registry. Each application, request, notification, or...

  14. FAA Aviation Forecast Conference Proceedings (16th)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-02-01

    of Jack Faucett Associates, an economic consulting firm based in Chevy Chase, Maryland. Much of his seven-year consulting experience was devoted to...2511 South Grant Street Washington, DC 20591 Arlington, VA 22202 (202) 267-3577 (703) 548-3544 John Longnaker Ruth A. Leverenz Greiner, Inc. Federal...Blvd. 2 Wisconsin Circle Rockville, MD 20850 Suite 700 (301) 640-2247 Chevy Chase, MD 20815 (301) 961-1562 William C. Spaeth Metro. Washington

  15. FAA Smoke Transport Code

    SciTech Connect

    Domino, Stefan; Luketa-Hanlin, Anay; Gallegos, Carlos

    2006-10-27

    FAA Smoke Transport Code, a physics-based Computational Fluid Dynamics tool, which couples heat, mass, and momentum transfer, has been developed to provide information on smoke transport in cargo compartments with various geometries and flight conditions. The software package contains a graphical user interface for specification of geometry and boundary conditions, analysis module for solving the governing equations, and a post-processing tool. The current code was produced by making substantial improvements and additions to a code obtained from a university. The original code was able to compute steady, uniform, isothermal turbulent pressurization. In addition, a preprocessor and postprocessor were added to arrive at the current software package.

  16. 14 CFR 39.5 - When does FAA issue airworthiness directives?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false When does FAA issue airworthiness directives? 39.5 Section 39.5 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS DIRECTIVES § 39.5 When does FAA issue airworthiness directives? FAA...

  17. 77 FR 4219 - FAA-Approved Portable Oxygen Concentrators; Technical Amendment

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-01-27

    ... Federal Aviation Administration 14 CFR Part 121 FAA-Approved Portable Oxygen Concentrators; Technical...: The FAA is amending regulations relating to operating rules for FAA approved portable oxygen... Certain Portable Oxygen Concentrator Devices Onboard Aircraft'' (70 FR 40156). SFAR 106 permits...

  18. FAA navigation program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blake, N. A.

    1978-01-01

    The FAA navigation program, which includes two major activity areas: those associated with certification of navigation systems to meet current requirements and those associated with building the data base needed to define future system improvements is examined. The near term activities, including the VORTAC upgrading program, the development of the technical data base needed for certification of LORAN C and OMEGA as a part of the current air navigation system, and the development of area navigation standards are examined in regard to cost factors and user requirements. Future system activities discussed include analysis of alternative system configurations made up of system elements including VORTAC VOR-DME, OMEGA and differential OMEGA, LORAN C, and GPS. The interrelationships between the near and far term programs are discussed. A helicopter IFR program which includes an assessment of the operational suitability of several navigation system alternatives for meeting helicopter navigation requirements for CONUS and offshore operations is reported.

  19. Optimal Day-Ahead Scheduling of a Hybrid Electric Grid Using Weather Forecasts

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-12-01

    14. SUBJECT TERMS Hybrid electric grid , Microgrid, Hybrid renewable energy system , energy management center, optimization, Day...Department of Defense DRPs demand response programs EMC energy management center ES energy storage ESS energy storage system FAA Federal...Aviation Administration FOB forward operating base GFS Global Forecast System GHG greenhouse gases GW gigawatt GWEC Global Wind Energy Council HEG

  20. Data quality improvements for FAA

    SciTech Connect

    Perry, R.; Marlman, K.; Olson, D.; Werner, P.

    1997-09-01

    Effective communication among air safety professionals is only as good as the information being communicated. Data sharing cannot be effective unless the data are relevant to aviation safety problems, and decisions based on faulty data are likely to be invalid. The validity of aviation safety data depends on satisfying two primary characteristics. Data must accurately represent or conform to the real world (conformance), and it must be relevant or useful to addressing the problems at hand (utility). The FAA, in efforts to implement the Safety Performance Analysis System (SPAS), identified significant problems in the quality of the data which SPAS and FAA air safety professionals would use in defining the state of aviation safety in the US. These finding were reinforced by Department of Transportation Inspector General and General Accounting Office investigations into FAA surveillance of air transport operations. Many recent efforts to improve data quality have been centered on technological solutions to the problems. They concentrate on reducing errors in the data (conformance), but they cannot adequately address the relationship of data to need (utility). Sandia National Laboratories, working with the FAA`s Airport and Aircraft Safety Research and Development Division and the Flight Standards Service, has been involved in four programs to assist FAA in addressing their data quality problems. The Sandia approach has been data-driven rather than technology-driven. In other words, the focus has been on first establishing the data requirements by analyzing the FAA`s surveillance and decision-making processes. This process analysis looked at both the data requirements and the methods used to gather the data in order to address both the conformance and utility problems inherent in existing FAA data systems. This paper discusses Sandia`s data quality programs and their potential improvements to the safety analysis processes and surveillance programs of the FAA.

  1. The FAA aging airplane program plan for transport aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curtis, Dayton; Lewis, Jess

    1992-01-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aging Airplane Program is focused on five program areas: maintenance, transport airplanes, commuter airplanes, airplane engines, and research. These programs are complementary and concurrent, and have been in effect since 1988. The programs address the aging airplane challenge through different methods, including policies, procedures, and hardware development. Each program is carefully monitored and its progress tracked to ensure that the needs of the FAA, the industry, and the flying public are being met.

  2. FAA Film Catalog.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Federal Aviation Administration (DOT), Washington, DC.

    Some 75 films from the U.S. Department of Transportation's Federal Aviation Administration are listed in this catalog. Topics dealt with include aerodynamics, airports, aviation history and careers, flying clubs, navigation and weather. Most of the films are 16mm sound and color productions. Filmstrips requiring a 35mm projector and phonograph or…

  3. 14 CFR 193.7 - What does it mean for the FAA to designate information as protected?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... information as protected? 193.7 Section 193.7 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION... INFORMATION § 193.7 What does it mean for the FAA to designate information as protected? (a) General. When the FAA issues an order designating information as protected under this part, the FAA does not...

  4. FAA Vertical Flight Bibliography, 1962 - 1994

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-08-01

    Angeles Area (Bernhart V. Dinerman) (NTIS: AD-735399) FAA-RD-71-105 Heliport Beacon Design, Construction, and Testing ( Fred Walter) (NTIS: AD-745514...Shollenberger) (NTIS: AD-A214085) FAA-RD-71-105 Heliport Beacon Design, Construction, and Testing ( Fred Walter) (NTIS: AD-745514) FAA/CT-TN86/64 Heliport...of Technology) FAA-AEE-92-03 FISHER, F.A. (Lightning Technologies Inc.) FAA/CT-89/22 PIXLER, RICHARD S. ( Hoyle Tanner and Associates) FAA/RD-93/2

  5. The Role of the FAA in US Commercial Space Transportation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Patricia Grace

    2002-01-01

    The Commercial Space Launch Act of 1984 granted the United States (U.S.) Secretary of Transportation authority to regulate launch and launch site operations conducted by U.S. citizens or from the U.S. This authority is exercised only to the extent necessary to protect public health and safety, protect property, and preserve U.S. national security and foreign policy interests. The Secretary of Transportation has delegated this responsibility to the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the FAA Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation carries out activities associated with this responsibility. Since 1984, the Commercial Space Launch Act has been amended several times and the FAA's responsibilities regarding U.S. commercial space transportation activities have been expanded to include regulation of reentry activities and operation of reentry sites by U.S. citizens. Additionally, the FAA can determine safety approval criteria for vehicles, safety systems, processes, services and personnel. Since 1984, there have been no fatalities or injuries suffered by the public resulting from U.S. commercial space launch activities. While public safety is its primary focus, the FAA also promotes launches by U.S. commercial space transportation entities in order to support U.S. competitiveness in the global marketplace.

  6. 78 FR 63276 - Interim Policy, FAA Review of Solar Energy System Projects on Federally Obligated Airports

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-10-23

    ... Federal Aviation Administration Interim Policy, FAA Review of Solar Energy System Projects on Federally... federally obligated airports to construct solar energy systems on airport property. FAA is adopting an... for measuring ocular impact of proposed solar energy systems which are effective upon publication....

  7. 14 CFR 11.31 - How does FAA process direct final rules?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false How does FAA process direct final rules? 11.31 Section 11.31 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES GENERAL RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.31 How does FAA...

  8. 14 CFR Appendix A to Part 415 - FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form A... ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH LICENSE Pt. 415, App. A Appendix A to Part 415—FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form ER21AP99.001 ER21AP99.002...

  9. 14 CFR Appendix A to Part 415 - FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form A... ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH LICENSE Pt. 415, App. A Appendix A to Part 415—FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form ER21AP99.001 ER21AP99.002...

  10. 75 FR 6433 - Federal Aviation Administration

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-02-09

    ... Federal Aviation Administration Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment and Public...: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental... Chicago, Illinois. SUMMARY: The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) proposes to fund, construct,...

  11. Towards FAA Certification of UAVs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, Stacy

    2003-01-01

    As of June 30, 2003, all Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), no matter how small, must adhere to the same FAA regulations as human-piloted aircraft. These regulations include certification for flying in controlled airspace and certification of flight software based on RTCA DO-178B. This paper provides an overview of the steps necessary to obtain certification, as well as a discussion about the challenges UAV's face when trying to meet these requirements. It is divided into two parts: 1) Certifications for Flying in Controlled Airspace; 2) Certification of Flight Software per RTCA DO-178B.

  12. NDE research efforts at the FAA Center for Aviation Systems Reliability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thompson, Donald O.; Brasche, Lisa J. H.

    1992-01-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration-Center for Aviation Systems Reliability (FAA-CASR), a part of the Institute for Physical Research and Technology at Iowa State University, began operation in the Fall of 1990 with funding from the FAA. The mission of the FAA-CASR is to develop quantitative nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods for aircraft structures and materials including prototype instrumentation, software, techniques, and procedures and to develop and maintain comprehensive education and training programs in aviation specific inspection procedures and practices. To accomplish this mission, FAA-CASR brings together resources from universities, government, and industry to develop a comprehensive approach to problems specific to the aviation industry. The problem areas are targeted by the FAA, aviation manufacturers, the airline industry and other members of the aviation business community. This consortium approach ensures that the focus of the efforts is on relevant problems and also facilitates effective transfer of the results to industry.

  13. 14 CFR 406.105 - Separation of functions for prosecuting civil penalties and advising the FAA decisionmaker.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURE INVESTIGATIONS, ENFORCEMENT, AND ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEW Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Separation of functions for...

  14. 14 CFR 406.105 - Separation of functions for prosecuting civil penalties and advising the FAA decisionmaker.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURE INVESTIGATIONS, ENFORCEMENT, AND ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEW Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Separation of functions for...

  15. 14 CFR 406.105 - Separation of functions for prosecuting civil penalties and advising the FAA decisionmaker.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURE INVESTIGATIONS, ENFORCEMENT, AND ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEW Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Separation of functions for...

  16. 14 CFR 406.105 - Separation of functions for prosecuting civil penalties and advising the FAA decisionmaker.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURE INVESTIGATIONS, ENFORCEMENT, AND ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEW Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Separation of functions for...

  17. FAA Aviation Forecasts-Fiscal Years 1982-1993

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-02-01

    throughout the aviation community . Many of the commercial aircraft have reached the point where they will require replacement. The problem is not so much... communities which show potential for supporting regular scheduled service. Increasing business use of general aviation is reflected in the changing...the affected communities have gained from commuter replacement of the air carriers. In general, where replacement of service has occurred, the

  18. FAA Aviation Forecasts: Fiscal Years 1991-2002

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-02-01

    SEAT MILES AIRCRAFT DEPARTURES 2.8- _-- 14 ACTUAL ~-12-MTH MOVING AVG. L ~ ACTUAL -- 12-MTH MOVING AVG. 261 13 U T H 2.4 0 12 B U IL22 ..~s N01 F 1.84...Dallas/Ft. Worth Command Boston New York Executive Air Charter San Juan Metro Dallas/Ft. Worth Nashville Eagle Miami Nashville Raleigh/ Durham Simmons...continued) Total Cumulative FY-88 Airport Enplanements* Percent** Percent Rank 31. Cincinnati 4,431 .92 68.38 33 32. Raleigh/ Durham Int’l 4,315 .89 69.27

  19. FAA Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1988-1999.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-02-01

    8217,ice will increase hr anl averaige of,? :1~ sanal overthe 1? -earforecast period. Inl 1999, the average, sest i or capa i tr. of an rr- 1",f t inl...period. Historically, the economic cycle of the general aviation industry has closely paralleled that of the national economy. The theories about the

  20. FAA Aviation Forecasts - Fiscal Years 1987-1998.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-02-01

    400 ----------------------- - -400 0 0 OPERATING 0, 0 350 -- - - - - - - - - - -350 200 ------------------------- -------- 200 W ’ n30 - --- - oI o oj...Radar Air Traffic Control Facility (RATCF) -- An air traffic control facility, located at a U.S. Navy (USN) or Marine Corps (USMC) Air Station

  1. FAA Aviation Forecasts, Fiscal Years 1993-2004

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1993-02-01

    increased con- although the performance of individual gestion and delay developing at major carriers has varied widely. Over the air carrier airports as...Isla Grande, PR (SIC) Oshkosh Wittman Field, WI (OSH) Kwajalein AAF, WK (KWA) Casper, WY (CPR) Pago Pago International, AS (TUT) G-6 Appendix H

  2. Data Driven Decision Making and the School Administrator: A Delphi Study Forecast

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pruitt, Cheryl Lynn

    2009-01-01

    Although the number of high-needs schools that are failing to achieve "Adequate Yearly Progress" (AYP) steadily increases, some are successfully increasing student achievement, staff productivity and collegiality. The purpose of this study was to use a three-round Delphi process to obtain the expert opinions of 10 administrators who…

  3. FAA Air Traffic Activity. Fiscal Year 1991

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-01-01

    74 0 0 74 0 UHUE ............................................................................. HI M ZHN 1683 1395 62 41 185 LIMA ALLEN COUNTY...1560433 TABLE 24- FISCAL YEAR 1991 FAA CONTRACTOR-OPERATED TRAFIC CONTROL TOWERS BY RANK ORDER OF

  4. 14 CFR 406.105 - Separation of functions for prosecuting civil penalties and advising the FAA decisionmaker.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ...; the Assistant Chief Counsel for Regulations; the Assistant Chief Counsel for Europe, Africa, and... the administrative law judge or by the FAA decisionmaker on appeal, except as counsel or a witness...

  5. The FAA satellite communications program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Burcham, Karen L.

    1993-01-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration is developing satellite communications capabilities to enhance air traffic services, first in oceanic and remote regions, and later for United States domestic services. The program includes four projects which develop technical standards, assure adequate system performance, support implementation, and provide for research and development for selected areas of U.S. domestic satellite communications. The continuing focus is the application of automated data communications, which is already permitting enhanced and regular position reporting. Voice developments, necessary for non-routine communications, are also included among the necessary activities to improve ATC communications.

  6. FAA/NASA Joint University Program for Air Transportation Research 1994-1995

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Remer, J. H.

    1998-01-01

    The Joint University Program for Air Transportation Research (JUP) is a coordinated set of three grants co-sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Under JUP, three institutions: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Princeton, and Ohio Universities receive research grants and collaborate with FAA and NASA in defining and performing civil aeronautics research in a multitude of areas. Some of these disciplines are artificial intelligence, control theory, atmospheric hazards, navigation, avionics, human factors, flight dynamics, air traffic management, and electronic communications.

  7. FAA Air Traffic Activity: Fiscal Year 1989

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-11-01

    H I M ZH N 178b 1487 49 52 200 LIMA ALLEN COUNTY ...................... ................. OH N ZID 610 0 12 589 9 LIN C H FIE LD...1937 GRAND TOTAL ................................................. 1229508 174 TABLE 24 - FISCAL YEAR 1989 FAA CONTRACTOR-OPERATED TRAFIC CONTROL

  8. FAA Air Traffic Activity: FY 1990. Addendum.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-01-01

    HI M ZHN 1896 1578 59 55 204 LIMA ALLEN COUNTY.................................... OH N ZID 607 0 22 576 9 LINCOLN LOGAN COUNTY...GA N 24 2011 GRAND TOTAL ...................................... .... 1494614 TABLE 24- FISCAL YEAR 1990 FAA CONTRACTOR-OPERATED TRAFIC CONTROL

  9. Effect of model error on precipitation forecasts in the high-resolution limited area ensemble prediction system of the Korea Meteorological Administration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, SeHyun; Kim, Hyun Mee

    2015-04-01

    In numerical weather prediction using convective-scale model resolution, forecast uncertainties are caused by initial condition error, boundary condition error, and model error. Because convective-scale forecasts are influenced by subgrid scale processes which cannot be resolved easily, the model error becomes more important than the initial and boundary condition errors. To consider the model error, multi-model and multi-physics methods use several models and physics schemes and the stochastic physics method uses random numbers to create a noise term in the model equations (e.g. Stochastic Perturbed Parameterization Tendency (SPPT), Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter (SKEB), Stochastic Convective Vorticity (SCV), and Random Parameters (RP)). In this study, the RP method was used to consider the model error in the high-resolution limited area ensemble prediction system (EPS) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The EPS has 12 ensemble members with 3 km horizontal resolution which generate 48 h forecasts. The initial and boundary conditions were provided by the global EPS of the KMA. The RP method was applied to microphysics and boundary layer schemes, and the ensemble forecasts using RP were compared with those without RP during July 2013. Both Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and spread of wind at 10 m verified by surface Automatic Weather System (AWS) observations decreased when using RP. However, for 1 hour accumulated precipitation, the spread increased with RP and Equitable Threat Score (ETS) showed different results for each rainfall event.

  10. Fog/Low Visibility Forecasting from NCEP - Current Status and Performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, B.; Dimego, G.; Gultepe, I.

    2010-07-01

    Low visibility(<1000m)/fog is very hazardous to air/land traffic and is beeing particularly emphasized at National Weather Service(NWS) of NOAA and in NextGen, a future Air Traffic Management System of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), United States. As of now however, fog forecast is still not operational guidance from National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP), an official numerical weather prediction (NWP) center of NWS, due to its complexity and computational resource limitation. Instead, it is only diagnosed by local weather forecasters through either model output statistics (MOS) or other variables based upon their forecasting experience. Nevertheless, research on numerical fog prediction has been conducting at NCEP. Recently, in an effort to add it to NCEP’s operational guidance as a step to echo the requirement from NWS and the NextGen of FAA, low visibility/fog forecast was experimentally implemented and tested at NCEP. In this paper, predictions of fog and low visibility (< 1000 m) from various models and ensembles over North America as well as their evaluations are summarized. The involved models include North American Mesoscale (NAM) model, Rapid Updated Cycle (RUC) model, and Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). NAM is NWS’s operational regional model to provide regular weather forecast guidance to local forecast offices nationally, RUC is an operational model specific for aviation weather guidance, and NMM is the NCEP’s version of Weather and Research Forecast (WRF) model, based on which NAM and other forecast systems are built. Besides from those single model forecast systems, low visibility/fog from two ensemble forecast systems are also presented. One is the Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF), the other is the Very Sort Range Ensemble Forecast System (VSREF). Through verifications, deterministically and probabilistically from November 2009 to March 2010 on North America, the fog and low visibility predictabilities for

  11. Index to FAA Office of Aerospace Medicine Reports: 1961 Through 2012

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-01-01

    Aerospace Medical Institute Federal Aviation Administration Oklahoma City, OK 73125 January 2013 Final Report DOT/FAA/AM-13/1 Office of Aerospace Medicine...Blvd. P.O. Box 25082 Norman, OK 73071 Oklahoma City, OK 73125 11. Contract or Grant No. 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of... Oklahoma City, Oklahoma , was attended by (left-right) then-Acting Administrator Michael Huerta, Associate Administrator for Aviation Safety Peggy

  12. 14 CFR 11.38 - What public comment procedures does the FAA follow for Special Conditions?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false What public comment procedures does the FAA follow for Special Conditions? 11.38 Section 11.38 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES GENERAL RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures...

  13. 14 CFR 11.33 - How can I track FAA's rulemaking activities?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false How can I track FAA's rulemaking activities? 11.33 Section 11.33 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES GENERAL RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.33 How can...

  14. 14 CFR 11.73 - How does FAA process petitions for rulemaking?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false How does FAA process petitions for rulemaking? 11.73 Section 11.73 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF... action. (d) If we have tasked ARAC to study the general subject area of your petition, we will ask...

  15. 47 CFR 17.7 - Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Antenna structures requiring notification to..., MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.7 Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA. A notification to the Federal...

  16. 47 CFR 17.7 - Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Antenna structures requiring notification to..., MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.7 Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA. A notification to the Federal...

  17. 47 CFR 17.7 - Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Antenna structures requiring notification to..., MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.7 Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA. Link to an amendment published at 79 FR 56986,...

  18. 47 CFR 17.7 - Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Antenna structures requiring notification to..., MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.7 Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA. A notification to the Federal...

  19. 47 CFR 17.14 - Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Certain antenna structures exempt from... CONSTRUCTION, MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.14 Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA. A notification to the...

  20. 47 CFR 17.14 - Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Certain antenna structures exempt from... CONSTRUCTION, MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.14 Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA. A notification to the...

  1. 47 CFR 17.14 - Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Certain antenna structures exempt from... CONSTRUCTION, MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.14 Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA. A notification to the...

  2. 47 CFR 17.14 - Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Certain antenna structures exempt from... CONSTRUCTION, MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.14 Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA. Link to an amendment...

  3. 47 CFR 17.7 - Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Antenna structures requiring notification to..., MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.7 Antenna structures requiring notification to the FAA. A notification to the Federal...

  4. 47 CFR 17.14 - Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Certain antenna structures exempt from... CONSTRUCTION, MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration Notification Criteria § 17.14 Certain antenna structures exempt from notification to the FAA. A notification to the...

  5. 14 CFR Appendix A to Part 415 - FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form A Appendix A to Part 415 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH LICENSE Pt. 415, App. A Appendix A to Part...

  6. 14 CFR Appendix A to Part 415 - FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form A Appendix A to Part 415 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH LICENSE Pt. 415, App. A Appendix A to Part...

  7. 14 CFR Appendix A to Part 415 - FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false FAA/USSPACECOM Launch Notification Form A Appendix A to Part 415 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH LICENSE Pt. 415, App. A Appendix A to Part...

  8. 14 CFR 39.5 - When does FAA issue airworthiness directives?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false When does FAA issue airworthiness directives? 39.5 Section 39.5 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF... an airworthiness directive addressing a product when we find that: (a) An unsafe condition exists...

  9. 14 CFR 39.5 - When does FAA issue airworthiness directives?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false When does FAA issue airworthiness directives? 39.5 Section 39.5 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF... an airworthiness directive addressing a product when we find that: (a) An unsafe condition exists...

  10. NASA/FAA/NCAR Supercooled Large Droplet Icing Flight Research: Summary of Winter 1996-1997 Flight Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, Dean; Ratvasky, Thomas; Bernstein, Ben; McDonough, Frank; Strapp, J. Walter

    1998-01-01

    During the winter of 1996-1997, a flight research program was conducted at the NASA-Lewis Research Center to study the characteristics of Supercooled Large Droplets (SLD) within the Great Lakes region. This flight program was a joint effort between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Based on weather forecasts and real-time in-flight guidance provided by NCAR, the NASA-Lewis Icing Research Aircraft was flown to locations where conditions were believed to be conducive to the formation of Supercooled Large Droplets aloft. Onboard instrumentation was then used to record meteorological, ice accretion, and aero-performance characteristics encountered during the flight. A total of 29 icing research flights were conducted, during which "conventional" small droplet icing, SLD, and mixed phase conditions were encountered aloft. This paper will describe how flight operations were conducted, provide an operational summary of the flights, present selected experimental results from one typical research flight, and conclude with practical "lessons learned" from this first year of operation.

  11. NASA/FAA helicopter simulator workshop

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Larsen, William E. (Editor); Randle, Robert J., Jr. (Editor); Bray, Richard S. (Editor); Zuk, John (Editor)

    1992-01-01

    A workshop was convened by the FAA and NASA for the purpose of providing a forum at which leading designers, manufacturers, and users of helicopter simulators could initiate and participate in a development process that would facilitate the formulation of qualification standards by the regulatory agency. Formal papers were presented, special topics were discussed in breakout sessions, and a draft FAA advisory circular defining specifications for helicopter simulators was presented and discussed. A working group of volunteers was formed to work with the National Simulator Program Office to develop a final version of the circular. The workshop attracted 90 individuals from a constituency of simulator manufacturers, training organizations, the military, civil regulators, research scientists, and five foreign countries.

  12. FAA Air Traffic Activity, Fiscal Year 1980,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-26

    instrument flight rules ( IFR ) at ARTC centers by aviation category, center, and region. Chapter II includes summaries of aircraft operations at FAA...and secondary airports. Data for FSSs, CS/Ts, and IFSSs appear in Chapter V. This information includes total flight services, IFR -DVFR and VFR aircraft...contacted, IFR -DVFR and VFR flight plans originated, pilot briefs and airport advisories by facility, state, and region. Rank order tables are

  13. FAA evaluation of UV technology for runway incursion prevention and low-visibility landings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Norris, Victor J., Jr.

    2003-09-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is currently evaluating a solar blind ultraviolet (UV) technology, called FogEye, that is being developed by Norris Electro Optical Systems. The technology allows for transmission and reception of low level UV signals that are free of any natural background noise. It also offers favorable atmospheric transmission characteristics. Conclusions of the FAA evaluation thus far are that the technology has considerable merit, and that applications such as preventing runway incursions and use as an Integrity Monitor during low visibility landings should be operationally assessed.

  14. Technology Development, Validation, and Transfer Via the FAA Airworthiness Assurance Validation

    SciTech Connect

    Perry, R.L.

    1999-04-15

    In 1991, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) established an Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) at Sandia National Laboratories. Its primary mission is to support technology development, validation, and transfer to industry in order to enhance the airworthiness and improve the aircraft maintenance practices of the U.S. commercial aviation industry. The Center conducts projects in a myriad of engineering disciplines. The results are placed in the public domain so that the industry at-large can reap the benefits of FAA-funded Research and Development efforts. To support the Center's goals, the FAA/AANC has set up a hangar facility at the Albuquerque International Airport which contains a collection of transport and commuter aircraft as well as other test specimens. The facility replicates a working maintenance environment by incorporating both the physical inspection difficulties as well as the environmental factors which influence maintenance reliability.

  15. Environmental Compliance Assessment Protocol - Federal Aviation Administration (ECAP - FAA)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1993-10-01

    dlithiolan,2-y Carbamic chlotdds, 1 K U097 79-44-7 dimethyl- Carbaryl 100 K 63-25-2 Carbofuran 10/10000o 10 1563-66-2 Carbon disuiffide 10,000 100 K...chloro- 1000 1000 P027 542-76-7 Propoxur x 114-26-1 Propyl chioroloumae 500 109-61-5 Propylene (Propene) x 116-07-1 Propylene oxide 10,000 100 1 75-56

  16. FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) Air Traffic Activity FY 1983.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-09-30

    tI1148335 NEVA (A LAS VERAS FCCARRAN INTL ( LAT ) L PRIMARY OPERAT1ENS 2E3549 121tE* 5P ? c /619 1 4අ SECEUARY OPERATIONS 13P8 3( 113* 1 1I OVERFLIGHTS 8026A...34NLSCATINE IA N I 1L1 27E 14 204 0PILSCLE SHOALS AL S 1 HSV 1366 55p 26 769 15 MNSKEGCN MI N I MKG 2263 547 e34 911 111PlSKCGEE OK h ZF 17 ) 3 Ii...821756 2K10M EI-CUiK :KV PARK NY N4 ,NY 1i 0 1 8* R(OPUC OH N 7ZSf 4t. 16 1 26 ZAIONE 41. S 1 HSV 23! C VI i~e11 tbU1JC CALLS MN IK ZAP4 ’I-36i1 .(EC CITY

  17. FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) Air Traffic Activity FY 1982,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-09-30

    52442 12228 1282 36579 2351 LOCAL OPERATIONS 2070C 16669 4211 TOTAL OPERATIONS 73142 12228 1262 53248 6i FARGO HECTOR FIELD (FAR) S I TINERANT OPERATIONS...252 4991 OSIOSH liIN4e FIELD 01 N 173 7291K FORGO HECTOR FIELD NO S as3 09911 ROANOKE VA 1 174 100 FLXNT RI SHOP "I S Z A 49F|r PALM SPRI&NS...INTERNATIONAL AK M 38 6744 CHARLESTON mV 5 110 1093 SAN DIEGO LINOENG CA II 39 63626 LANSING MI 5 119 los @ PORTLAND INTERNATIONAL OR N 40 629)4 FARGO HECTOR

  18. FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) Air Traffic Activity FY 1985.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1985-09-30

    SHERNA14 OK N 395 4247 FORT MYERS REGI1NAL FL S 396 3035 PRESCOTT 2 AZ N 397 2899 KWAJALEIN AAF K N 316 PAGa PAGO IFSS AS N 399 186 GRAND TOTAL 22373031...CA N 340 10568 PRESCOTT 2 AZ N 417 KINST3N NL N 341 10349 GRAND TOTAL 38702396 POULHKEEPSIE DUCHESS CO NY N 342 10311 KLANATH FALLS ON N 343 10300...9 MINNEAPOLIS FLYING CLOUD HN L I 4SP 1372 0 4 1366 2 MINNEAPOLIS JAMES FIELL MN L I NSP 67 0 7 58 2 MINNEAPOLIS ST PAUL INTL fn L 1 4SP 29018 21180

  19. FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) Air Traffic Activity: Fiscal Year 1987

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-09-30

    ITNI N ITINERANT OPERATIJNIS 52463 4333 9922 3 7540 418 LOCAL OPERArIgNS 46988 %3902 56 TOTAL OPERATIONS 99451 4513 9922 84442 iD4 JOHN F KENNEIT INTL...ITINERANT OPERATIDIS ’.33?0 3 4599 9776.4 351 LOCAL OPERATIONS 38134 3&6 1945 TOTAL OPERATIONS 8145’. 3 4S99 74053 2902 L - LUBBOCK LB S IrIVEvANT...DC L 29 324365 WORTI PHILADELPHIA PA L 1og 181150 JOHN F 951MSDI INTL Ny L 30 311521 MILLSBORO OR N 11 185933 FORT tIRYN MERCHAN TI L 31 304342 EL

  20. A qualitative phenomenological study: Enhanced, risk-based FAA oversight on part 145 maintenance practices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheehan, Bryan G.

    The purpose of this qualitative phenomenological study was to examine the phenomenon of enhanced, risk-based Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) oversight of Part 145 repair stations that performed aircraft maintenance for Part 121 air carriers between 2007 and 2014 in Oklahoma. Specifically, this research was utilized to explore what operational changes have occurred in the domestic Part 145 repair station industry such as variations in management or hiring practices, training, recordkeeping and technical data, inventory and aircraft parts supply-chain logistics, equipment, and facilities. After interviewing 12 managers from Part 145 repair stations in Oklahoma, six major theme codes emerged from the data: quality of oversight before 2007, quality of oversight after 2007, advantages of oversight, disadvantages of oversight, status quo of oversight, and process improvement . Of those six major theme codes, 17 subthemes appeared from the data that were used to explain the phenomenon of enhanced oversight in the Part 145 repair station industry. Forty-two percent of the participants indicated a weak FAA oversight system that has hindered the continuous process improvement program in their repair stations. Some of them were financially burdened after hiring additional full-time quality assurance inspectors to specifically manage enhanced FAA oversight. Notwithstanding, the participants of the study indicated that the FAA must apply its surveillance on a more standardized and consistent basis. They want to see this standardization in how FAA inspectors interpret regulations and practice the same quality of oversight for all repair stations, particularly those that are repeat violators and fail to comply with federal aviation regulations. They believed that when the FAA enforces standardization on a consistent basis, repair stations can become more efficient and safer in the performance of their scope of work for the U.S. commercial air transportation industry.

  1. Vibro-Acoustic Forecast for Space Shuttle Launches at Vandenberg AFB: The Payload Changeout Room and the Administration Building,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-26

    7 RD-0156 944 VIBRO-RCOUS’IC FORECAST FOR SPACE SHUTTLE LAUNCHES AT / VANDENBERG AFB: THE..( U ) WESTON OB ERVATORY MR F A CROWLEY ET AL. 31 OCT 84...altitude of 300 meters. At thi v t ir the enuivatent acoustic source is 100 meters below the Shuttle WI. Thie ,’ASP1E ma xir: is 1R4.5 Wb (151 b for . S ...is constrained to use only the first 1𔃺 meters of Shuttle traject ory. As the Shuttle moves south, backscatter OtI the PPR south wall .haould nearly

  2. 76 FR 78966 - Federal Aviation Administration

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-12-20

    ... Federal Aviation Administration Approval of Noise Compatibility Program for Kona International Airport at Keahole, Keahole, North Kona, HI AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration, DOT. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announces its findings on the noise compatibility...

  3. 78 FR 13395 - Federal Aviation Administration

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-02-27

    ... Federal Aviation Administration Notice of Availability of Draft Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act (ANILCA) Section 810 Subsistence Evaluation. AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA... Aviation Administration, Airports Division, 222 West 7th Avenue, Box 14, Anchorage, AK 99513. 5....

  4. Implementation of the FAA research and development electromagnetic database

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcdowall, R. L.; Grush, D. J.; Cook, D. M.; Glynn, M. S.

    1991-01-01

    The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) has been assisting the FAA in developing a database of information about lightning. The FAA Research and Development Electromagnetic Database (FRED) will ultimately contain data from a variety of airborne and ground-based lightning research projects. An outline of the data currently available in FRED is presented. The data sources which the FAA intends to incorporate into FRED are listed. In addition, it describes how the researchers may access and use the FRED menu system.

  5. Forecasting forecast skill

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kalnay, Eugenia; Dalcher, Amnon

    1987-01-01

    It is shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts - a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average correlation) between members of an ensemble of forecasts started from five different analyses. The analyses had been previously derived for satellite-data-impact studies and included, in the Northern Hemisphere, moderate perturbations associated with the use of different observing systems. When the Northern Hemisphere was used as a verification region, the prediction of skill was rather poor. This is due to the fact that such a large area usually contains regions with excellent forecasts as well as regions with poor forecasts, and does not allow for discrimination between them. However, when regional verifications were used, the ensemble forecast dispersion provided a very good prediction of the quality of the individual forecasts.

  6. FAA/NASA En Route Noise Symposium

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Powell, Clemans A. (Compiler)

    1990-01-01

    Aircraft community noise annoyance is traditionally a concern only in localities near airports. The proposed introduction of large commercial airplanes with advanced turboprop propulsion systems with supersonic propellers has given rise to concerns of noise annoyance in areas previously considered not to be impacted by aircraft noise. A symposium was held to assess the current knowledge of factors important to the impact of en route noise and to aid in the formulation of FAA and NASA programs in the area. Papers were invited on human response to aircraft noise in areas with low ambient noise levels, aircraft noise heard indoors and outdoors, aircraft noise in recreational areas, detection of propeller and jet aircraft noise, and methodological issues relevant to the design of future studies.

  7. The new FAA national automated ECG network: some aviation medical examiner experiences.

    PubMed

    Beers, K N; Mohler, S R

    1991-01-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has required, since August 1, 1987, that aviation medical examiners (AMEs) transmit by telephone all electrocardiograms (ECGs) necessary for airman "Class I" medical certification. This relatively new airman certification requirement is centralized at the Civil Aeromedical Institute (CAMI) in Oklahoma City. In calendar year 1989, the FAA received 69,000 electronically transmitted electrocardiograms. CAMI uses Marquette Electronics software to interpret the ECG signals that are received from multi-channel equipment. The single-channel transmitted ECGs are hand screened at present. The FAA "automated" screening program is unique among governmental airman medical certification programs throughout the world. This paper presents, for potential future users, the authors' experiences with the new airman automated electrocardiographic certification requirement, and covers positive and negative features involved in the implementation and operation of the program. We conclude that while the new FAA automated ECG screening program has satisfactorily replaced the former "physician-intensive" manual screening process, the new system increases the AME's equipment and operation costs. These are passed on to the airman who is seeking certification.

  8. 32 CFR 728.58 - Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 5 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. 728.58 Section 728.58 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY PERSONNEL... Federal Agencies § 728.58 Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. (a) Beneficiaries. Air...

  9. 32 CFR 728.58 - Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 5 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. 728.58 Section 728.58 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY PERSONNEL... Federal Agencies § 728.58 Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. (a) Beneficiaries. Air...

  10. 32 CFR 728.58 - Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 5 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. 728.58 Section 728.58 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY PERSONNEL... Federal Agencies § 728.58 Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. (a) Beneficiaries. Air...

  11. 32 CFR 728.58 - Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 5 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. 728.58 Section 728.58 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY PERSONNEL... Federal Agencies § 728.58 Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. (a) Beneficiaries. Air...

  12. 32 CFR 728.58 - Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 5 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. 728.58 Section 728.58 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY PERSONNEL... Federal Agencies § 728.58 Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) beneficiaries. (a) Beneficiaries. Air...

  13. Comparison of Intent-to-Leave with Actual Turnover within the FAA

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-12-01

    Incentives for early retirement (e.g., “buy-outs”) were offered in 1997 throughout the federal government as part of the shrinking of the federal...workforce under the Clinton administration (National Performance Review, 1993). It is possible that incentives for early retirement inflated the expressed...buy-out” as the primary reason. The FAA did not offer incentives for early retirement in 2000 through 2004. Actual turnover The actual turnover rate

  14. A Markov Model for Forecasting Inventory Levels for U.S Navy Medical Service Corps Healthcare Administrators

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-03-01

    Administration, Medical Allied Sciences, Optometry , and Pharmacy. Today, the MSC comprises 31 subspecialties, organized under three major categories...Exper Psych 30 4% Clinical Dietetics 26 3% Financial Mgt 78 8% Research Psych 17 3% Optometry 109 11% MPT&E 31 3% Entomology 39 6% Pharmacy, General 136

  15. FAA Pilot Knowledge Tests: Learning or Rote Memorization?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Casner, Stephen M.; Jones, Karen M.; Puentes, Antonio; Irani, Homi

    2004-01-01

    The FAA pilot knowledge test is a multiple-choice assessment tool designed to measure the extent to which applicants for FAA pilot certificates and ratings have mastered a corpus of required aeronautical knowledge. All questions that appear on the test are drawn from a database of questions that is made available to the public. The FAA and others are concerned that releasing test questions may encourage students to focus their study on memorizing test questions. To investigate this concern, we created our own database of questions that differed from FAA questions in four different ways. Our first three question types were derived by modifying existing FAA questions: (1) rewording questions and answers; (2) shuffling answers; and (3) substituting different figures for problems that used figures. Our last question type posed a question about required knowledge for which no FAA question currently exists. Forty-eight student pilots completed one of two paper-and-pencil knowledge tests that contained a mix of these experimental questions. The results indicate significantly lower scores for some question types when compared to unaltered FAA questions to which participants had prior access.

  16. 14 CFR 39.21 - Where can I get information about FAA-approved alternative methods of compliance?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Where can I get information about FAA-approved alternative methods of compliance? 39.21 Section 39.21 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS DIRECTIVES § 39.21 Where can I...

  17. 14 CFR 11.27 - Are there other ways FAA collects specific rulemaking recommendations before we issue an NPRM?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Are there other ways FAA collects specific rulemaking recommendations before we issue an NPRM? 11.27 Section 11.27 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES GENERAL RULEMAKING...

  18. 14 CFR 11.29 - May FAA change its regulations without first issuing an ANPRM or NPRM?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false May FAA change its regulations without first issuing an ANPRM or NPRM? 11.29 Section 11.29 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES GENERAL RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking...

  19. 14 CFR 11.23 - Does FAA follow the same procedures in issuing all types of rules?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Does FAA follow the same procedures in issuing all types of rules? 11.23 Section 11.23 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES GENERAL RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures...

  20. 49 CFR 1540.117 - Threat assessments regarding aliens holding or applying for FAA certificates, ratings, or...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 9 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Threat assessments regarding aliens holding or applying for FAA certificates, ratings, or authorizations. 1540.117 Section 1540.117 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) TRANSPORTATION SECURITY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY CIVIL AVIATION...

  1. 49 CFR 1540.117 - Threat assessments regarding aliens holding or applying for FAA certificates, ratings, or...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 9 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Threat assessments regarding aliens holding or applying for FAA certificates, ratings, or authorizations. 1540.117 Section 1540.117 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) TRANSPORTATION SECURITY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY CIVIL AVIATION...

  2. 76 FR 2745 - Federal Aviation Administration

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-01-14

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Eighty-Fourth Meeting: RTCA Special Committee 159: Global Positioning System (GPS) AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Notice of RTCA Special...

  3. 77 FR 64837 - Federal Aviation Administration

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-10-23

    ... Federal Aviation Administration Fourth Meeting: RTCA Special Committee 227, Standards of Navigation Performance AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). ACTION... 15, 2012. Kathy Hitt, Management Analyst, Business Operations Group, Federal Aviation...

  4. Overview of composite projects at the FAA Airworthiness Assurance Validation Center

    SciTech Connect

    Shurtleff, W.W.; Roach, D.P.; Valley, M.T.

    1997-03-01

    The Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) was established by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) William J. Hughes Technical Center at Sandia National Laboratories in 1991 to support nondestructive inspection (NDI) technology development and assessment. The evaluations are done using a variety of characterized test specimens and test beds including entire transport and commuter aircraft. Although the initial work at the Center concentrated on metallic structure, the FAA has more recently expanded the AANC`s charter to include projects directed at composite repair and inspection. The three projects briefly described in this paper are: (1) the validation and technology transfer of a thermographic techniques for composite inspection, (2) the development of generic composite laminate and honeycomb calibration reference standards, and (3) the certification of the use of boron epoxy doubler on a Lockheed L-1011.

  5. FAA certification requirements for future fuels, fuel systems and powerplants

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Horeff, T. C.

    1983-01-01

    The current FAA procedures for approving fuels, along with a comment or two as to what might be done relative to assuring the safety of using these alternative fuels, whatever they may be are addressed.

  6. Evaluation of Proposed Cab Glass Coating for FAA Control Towers

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-12-01

    wear vision correction? None Contacts Glasses Both If required, which correction do you use: Monofocal Bifocal Trifocal Color perception results...i AFRL-RH-WP-TR-2013-0123 Evaluation of Proposed Cab Glass Coating for FAA Control Towers Eric E. Geiselman Alan R. Pinkus, Ph.D...COVERED (From - To) 30-12-2013 Final Jun 2012 – Jun 2013 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Evaluation of Proposed Cab Glass Coating for FAA Control

  7. Aviation Safety: FAA and DOD Response to Similar Safety Concerns

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2002-01-01

    General Accounting Office GAO January 2002 AVIATION SAFETY FAA and DOD Response to Similar Safety Concerns GAO-02-77 Report Documentation Page Report...Date 00JAN2002 Report Type N/A Dates Covered (from... to) - Title and Subtitle AVIATION SAFETY FAA and DOD: Response to Similar Safety Concerns ...public release, distribution unlimited Supplementary Notes Abstract Safety of aircraft is a paramount concern in both civilian and military aviation

  8. FAA Rotorcraft Research, Engineering, and Development Bibliography 1962-1989

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-05-01

    81-4 Comprehensive Bibliography of Literature on Helicopter Noise Technology (A.M. Carter, Jr.) (NTIS: ADA 103 331) FAA-RD-75-79 Comprehensive Review...Engineering and Development Program Plan, Aircraft Icing FAA-CT-81-180 Engineering and Development Program Plan, Helicopter Icing Technology Research (NTIS: ADA...of Various NASA CR-177408 Simulation Technology Options for Terminal Instrument Procedures (TERPS) Enhancements (Anil V. Phatak, John A. Sorensen

  9. Upgraded FAA Airfield Capacity Model Compiled from the Following Reports: FAA-RD-76-128 and FAA-EM-81-1-VOL-1

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-05-01

    mental User’s Guide," provides a general overview of the major changes that have been made to the program and includes revised versions of the...Arrival-Arrival Separations: DLTAIJ: 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 103 ** FAA CAPACITY MODEL - REVISED JANUARY, 1980 ** "t AIRFIELD HOURLY CAPACITY MODELO

  10. FAA Fluorescent Penetrant Activities - An Update

    SciTech Connect

    Moore, D.G.

    1998-10-20

    The Federal Aviation Administration's Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) is currently characterizing low cycle fatigue specimens that will support the needs of penetrant manufacturers, commercial airline industry and the Federal Aviation Administration. The main focus of this characterization is to maintain and enhance the evaluation of penetrant inspection materials and apply resources to support the aircraft community needs. This paper discusses efforts to-date to document the Wright Laboratory penetrant evaluation process and characterize penetrant brightness readings in the initial set of sample calibration panels using Type 1 penetrant.

  11. Collegiate Aviation and FAA Air Traffic Control.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ruiz, Jose R.; Ruiz, Lorelei E.

    2003-01-01

    Based on a literature review this article describes the Air Traffic-Collegiate Training Initiative (AT-CTI) program, including objectives, the process by which postsecondary institutes become affiliated, advantages of affiliation, and the recruitment and employment of air traffic control graduates by the Federal Aviation Administration. (Contains…

  12. 14 CFR 406.177 - Petition to reconsider or modify a final decision and order of the FAA decisionmaker on appeal.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURE INVESTIGATIONS, ENFORCEMENT, AND ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEW Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Petition to reconsider or modify a...

  13. 14 CFR 406.177 - Petition to reconsider or modify a final decision and order of the FAA decisionmaker on appeal.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURE INVESTIGATIONS, ENFORCEMENT, AND ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEW Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Petition to reconsider or modify a...

  14. 14 CFR 406.177 - Petition to reconsider or modify a final decision and order of the FAA decisionmaker on appeal.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURE INVESTIGATIONS, ENFORCEMENT, AND ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEW Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Petition to reconsider or modify a...

  15. 14 CFR 406.177 - Petition to reconsider or modify a final decision and order of the FAA decisionmaker on appeal.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURE INVESTIGATIONS, ENFORCEMENT, AND ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEW Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Petition to reconsider or modify a...

  16. 14 CFR 406.177 - Petition to reconsider or modify a final decision and order of the FAA decisionmaker on appeal.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURE INVESTIGATIONS, ENFORCEMENT, AND ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEW Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Petition to reconsider or modify a...

  17. Space weather forecasting with a Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schunk, R. W.; Scherliess, L.; Eccles, V.; Gardner, L. C.; Sojka, J. J.; Zhu, L.; Pi, X.; Mannucci, A. J.; Butala, M.; Wilson, B. D.; Komjathy, A.; Wang, C.; Rosen, G.

    2016-07-01

    The goal of the Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) program is to improve space weather specification and forecasting with ensemble modeling. Space weather can have detrimental effects on a variety of civilian and military systems and operations, and many of the applications pertain to the ionosphere and upper atmosphere. Space weather can affect over-the-horizon radars, HF communications, surveying and navigation systems, surveillance, spacecraft charging, power grids, pipelines, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA's) Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS). Because of its importance, numerous space weather forecasting approaches are being pursued, including those involving empirical, physics-based, and data assimilation models. Clearly, if there are sufficient data, the data assimilation modeling approach is expected to be the most reliable, but different data assimilation models can produce different results. Therefore, like the meteorology community, we created a Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) for the Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Electrodynamics (ITE) system that is based on different data assimilation models. The MEPS ensemble is composed of seven physics-based data assimilation models for the ionosphere, ionosphere-plasmasphere, thermosphere, high-latitude ionosphere-electrodynamics, and middle to low latitude ionosphere-electrodynamics. Hence, multiple data assimilation models can be used to describe each region. A selected storm event that was reconstructed with four different data assimilation models covering the middle and low latitude ionosphere is presented and discussed. In addition, the effect of different data types on the reconstructions is shown.

  18. Evaluating the compliance of Keck's LGSAO automated aircraft protection system with FAA adopted criteria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stomski, Paul J.; Campbell, Randy; Murphy, Thomas W.

    2014-07-01

    The W. M. Keck Observatory (WMKO) applied for and received a determination of no-objection from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for laser guide star adaptive optics (LGS-AO) operations using an automated aircraft protection system (APS) in late 2013. WMKO's APS, named AIRSAFE, uses transponder based aircraft detection (TBAD) to replace human aircraft spotters. The FAA required WMKO to self-certify AIRSAFE compliance with SAE Aerospace Standard 6029A: "Performance Criteria for Laser Control Measures Used for Aviation Safety"[1] (AS- 6029A). AS-6029A prescribes performance and administrative criteria for an APS; essentially, requiring AIRSAFE to adequately protect all types of aircraft, traveling at any speed, altitude, distance and direction reasonably expected in the operating environment. A description of the analysis that comprises this compliance evaluation is the main focus of this paper. Also discussed is the AIRSAFE compliance with AS-6029A administrative criteria that includes characterization of site specific air traffic, failure modes, limitations, operating procedures, preventative maintenance procedures, and periodic system test procedures.

  19. Assessment of Proposed Cab Glass Coating for FAA Control Towers

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-11-16

    ABSTRACT AFRL assessed the effects of an "after- market " coating that could possibly be applied to FAA air traffic control tower (ATCT) windows...Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) for help in assessing the effects of an "after- market " glass coating/treatment that could possibly be applied to FAA...Cleared 01/17/2014; 88ABW-2014-0142. Report contains color. 14. ABSTRACT AFRL assessed the effects of an "after- market " coating that could possibly be

  20. Time Relevance of Convective Weather Forecast for Air Traffic Automation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chan, William N.

    2006-01-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is handling nearly 120,000 flights a day through its Air Traffic Management (ATM) system and air traffic congestion is expected to increse substantially over the next 20 years. Weather-induced impacts to throughput and efficiency are the leading cause of flight delays accounting for 70% of all delays with convective weather accounting for 60% of all weather related delays. To support the Next Generation Air Traffic System goal of operating at 3X current capacity in the NAS, ATC decision support tools are being developed to create advisories to assist controllers in all weather constraints. Initial development of these decision support tools did not integrate information regarding weather constraints such as thunderstorms and relied on an additional system to provide that information. Future Decision Support Tools should move towards an integrated system where weather constraints are factored into the advisory of a Decision Support Tool (DST). Several groups such at NASA-Ames, Lincoln Laboratories, and MITRE are integrating convective weather data with DSTs. A survey of current convective weather forecast and observation data show they span a wide range of temporal and spatial resolutions. Short range convective observations can be obtained every 5 mins with longer range forecasts out to several days updated every 6 hrs. Today, the short range forecasts of less than 2 hours have a temporal resolution of 5 mins. Beyond 2 hours, forecasts have much lower temporal. resolution of typically 1 hour. Spatial resolutions vary from 1km for short range to 40km for longer range forecasts. Improving the accuracy of long range convective forecasts is a major challenge. A report published by the National Research Council states improvements for convective forecasts for the 2 to 6 hour time frame will only be achieved for a limited set of convective phenomena in the next 5 to 10 years. Improved longer range forecasts will be probabilistic

  1. Evaluation of NCAR Icing/SLD Forecasts, Tools and Techniques Used During The 1998 NASA SLD Flight Season

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bernstein, Ben C.

    2001-01-01

    Supercooled Large Droplet (SLD) icing conditions were implicated in at least one recent aircraft crash, and have been associated with other aircraft incidents. Inflight encounters with SLD can result in ice accreting on unprotected areas of the wing where it can not be removed. Because this ice can adversely affect flight characteristics of some aircraft, there has been concern about flight safety in these conditions. The FAA held a conference on in-flight icing in 1996 where the state of knowledge concerning SLD was explored. One outcome of these meetings was an identified need to acquire SLD flight research data, particularly in the Great Lakes Region. The flight research data was needed by the FAA to develop a better understanding of the meteorological characteristics associated with SLD and facilitate an assessment of existing aircraft icing certification regulations with respect to SLD. In response to this need, NASA, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) conducted a cooperative icing flight research program to acquire SLD flight research data. The NASA Glenn Research Center's Twin Otter icing research aircraft was flown throughout the Great Lakes region during the winters of 1996-97 and 1997-98 to acquire SLD icing and meteorological data. The NASA Twin Otter was instrumented to measure cloud microphysical properties (particle size, LWC (Liquid Water Content), temperature, etc.), capture images of wing and tail ice accretion, and then record the resultant effect on aircraft performance due to the ice accretion. A satellite telephone link enabled the researchers onboard the Twin Otter to communicate with NCAR meteorologists. who provided real-time guidance into SLD icing conditions. NCAR meteorologists also provided preflight SLD weather forecasts that were used to plan the research flights, and served as on-board researchers. This document contains an evaluation of the tools and techniques NCAR

  2. FAA Information Technology: Complete Cost Data not Provided to OMB

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-01-01

    and use of information technology . However, FAA has not provided required data on information technology supporting the air traffic control system...decisionmakers in the Department of Transportation, OMB, and the Congress to focus needed attention on information technology and understates the level

  3. Forecasting Skill

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-01-01

    and in synoptic meteorology, many feel the improvements in forecasting the weather (clouds, winds , precipitation, and obstructions to vision) have...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I...rate of improve- ment of 10% as roughly comparable to the improvement rate obtained by the numerical models. The following types of forecasts seem to

  4. 76 FR 44978 - Notice of FAA Intent To Carry Over Airport Improvement Program (AIP) Entitlement Funds

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-07-27

    ...-0786] Notice of FAA Intent To Carry Over Airport Improvement Program (AIP) Entitlement Funds AGENCY... Program (AIP) must notify, in writing, the designated representative in the appropriate FAA Regional or... grants to the following year. In such cases, the FAA converts the current-year funds to AIP...

  5. GIS and RDBMS Used with Offline FAA Airspace Databases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clark, J.; Simmons, J.; Scofield, E.; Talbott, B.

    1994-01-01

    A geographic information system (GIS) and relational database management system (RDBMS) were used in a Macintosh environment to access, manipulate, and display off-line FAA databases of airport and navigational aid locations, airways, and airspace boundaries. This proof-of-concept effort used data available from the Adaptation Controlled Environment System (ACES) and Digital Aeronautical Chart Supplement (DACS) databases to allow FAA cartographers and others to create computer-assisted charts and overlays as reference material for air traffic controllers. These products were created on an engineering model of the future GRASP (GRaphics Adaptation Support Position) workstation that will be used to make graphics and text products for the Advanced Automation System (AAS), which will upgrade and replace the current air traffic control system. Techniques developed during the prototyping effort have shown the viability of using databases to create graphical products without the need for an intervening data entry step.

  6. [Determination of palladium in automobile exhaust catalysts by FAAS method].

    PubMed

    Wei, Xiao-Feng; Cai, Guo-Hui; Xiao, Yi-Hong; Zhan, Ying-Ying; Xie, Zeng-Hong; Wei, Ke-Mei

    2009-12-01

    Palladium in automotive exhaust catalyst was determined by flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS). The analytical conditions and the coexisting elements interference were studied. The catalyst was dissolved by the mixture of H2O2 and HCl. Pd in the solution was directly determined by FAAS method. The linearity of working curve ranges from 0.1 to 15 microg x mL(-1); the detection limit is 0.029 microg x mL(-1); the relative standard deviation (RSD) range is from 0.8% to 2.5%; and the recovery rate range is from 99.6% to 101.2%. It is a simple and convenient method for accurate analysis of Pd in the exhaust catalysts.

  7. FAA Weather Surveillance Requirements in the Context on NEXRAD.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-11-19

    7 AD-A123 876 AA WEATHER SUR VE" ANCE REQUIMENTS. HE CONTE T ON i/ NEXRAD (U) MASSACHUSETTS NST OF TECH EXINGTO N LINCO N JD LAS B G LAIRD ET 1 9 NOV...identified technical uncertainties in the NEXRAD atrawman design for FAA applications. The suggested research and development program includes an...automated display and short term prediction of hazardotus weather regions for use by ATC controllers. 17. Kam Wattl is. OlsatdaW sast NEXRAD

  8. Runways at small airports are deteriorating because of deferred maintenance: Action needed by FAA and the Congress

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1982-09-01

    Runways at many small airports are deteriorating faster than necessary because airport owners--usually local governments--have deferred critical maintenance. The result is damage to the runways' basic structure and a shortened useful life if they are not repaired. Based on GAO's review of 46 airports, studies by others, and the views of FAA officials, deferred maintenance is apparently a longstanding nationwide problem. Lack of funds is cited by airport owners as the primary reason for not performing needed maintenance; however, the Federal Aviation Administration's apathy to bring about satisfactory maintenance is a contributing cause. GAO is recommending actions that FAA can take to help ensure that runways at small airports are properly maintained. The Congress should recognize the airport owners' lack of resources to properly maintain airports when considering future revisions to the Airport Improvement Program.

  9. The FAA's postmortem forensic toxicology self-evaluated proficiency test program: the second seven years.

    PubMed

    Chaturvedi, Arvind K; Craft, Kristi J; Cardona, Patrick S; Rogers, Paul B; Canfield, Dennis V

    2009-05-01

    During toxicological evaluations of samples from fatally injured pilots involved in civil aviation accidents, a high degree of quality control/quality assurance (QC/QA) is maintained. Under this philosophy, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) started a forensic toxicology proficiency-testing (PT) program in July 1991. In continuation of the first seven years of the PT findings reported earlier, PT findings of the next seven years are summarized herein. Twenty-eight survey samples (12 urine, 9 blood, and 7 tissue homogenate) with/without alcohols/volatiles, drugs, and/or putrefactive amine(s) were submitted to an average of 31 laboratories, of which an average of 25 participants returned their results. Analytes in survey samples were correctly identified and quantitated by a large number of participants, but some false positives of concern were reported. It is anticipated that the FAA's PT program will continue to serve the forensic toxicology community through this important part of the QC/QA for laboratory accreditations.

  10. FAA Forecast Conference Proceedings (8th) Held at Arlington, Virginia on 24 February 1983.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-02-01

    Planning, Macro Analytical Approach, Mr. William Dickens, Supervisor of Commercial Market Research , Pratt & Whitney...Bases, I.P. Sharp State of Ohio Mr. William Dickens, Supervisor of Mr. David Lawrence, Director of Strategic Plan- Commercial Market Research , Pratt...panelists will answer received his Ph.D. in Economics from the New questions concerning their latest outlook for School for Social Research in New York

  11. Fishing Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    ROFFS stands for Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc. Roffer combines satellite and computer technology with oceanographic information from several sources to produce frequently updated charts sometimes as often as 30 times a day showing clues to the location of marlin, sailfish, tuna, swordfish and a variety of other types. Also provides customized forecasts for racing boats and the shipping industry along with seasonal forecasts that allow the marine industry to formulate fishing strategies based on foreknowledge of the arrival and departure times of different fish. Roffs service exemplifies the potential for benefits to marine industries from satellite observations. Most notable results are reduced search time and substantial fuel savings.

  12. An Investigation Into Criteria Commonly Used by the FAA to Grant Relief to Part 135 Operators Under FAR Sections: 135.213, 135.219, and/or 135.225

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, Louis J.; Heck, Michael L.; Burgess, Malcolm A.; Stough, H. P. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the criteria commonly used by the FAA to grant waivers, exemptions, or deviations to FAR Part 135, Sections 135.213, 135.219, and 135.225 and the potential impact on Flight Information Services Data Link (FISDL) implementation. These aviation regulations address the requirements for the use of weather reports or forecasts when conducting operations under FAR Part 135. In this study a literature search was conducted to obtain historical records of requests for relief from the 3 FAR sections under consideration. The exemption request records were then analyzed in order to determine the reasons given by the FAA for either granting or denying the request. In addition, FAA personnel and Part 135 operators were interviewed to determine the procedures used for satisfying the requirements of the 3 FAR sections.

  13. 78 FR 25524 - Federal Aviation Administration

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-05-01

    ... TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Notice of Request To Release Airport Property AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Notice of Intent to Rule on Request to Release Airport Property..., Airports Compliance Specialist, Federal Aviation Administration, Airports Division, ACE- 610C, 901...

  14. FAA/NASA Joint University Program for Air Transportation Research, 1992-1993

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morrell, Frederick R. (Compiler)

    1994-01-01

    The research conducted during the academic year 1992-1993 under the FAA/NASA sponsored Joint University Program for Air Transportation Research is summarized. The year end review was held at Ohio University, Athens, Ohio, 17-18 June 1993. The Joint University Program is a coordinated set of three grants sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration and NASA Langley Research Center, one each with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Ohio University, and Princeton University. Completed works, status reports, and annotated bibliographies are presented for research topics, which include navigation, guidance, and control theory and practice, aircraft performance, human factors and air traffic management. An overview of the year's activities for each university is also presented.

  15. FAA/NASA Joint University Program for Air Transportation Research: 1993-1994

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hueschen, Richard M. (Compiler)

    1995-01-01

    This report summarizes the research conducted during the academic year 1993-1994 under the NASA/FAA sponsored Joint University Program for Air Transportation Research. The year end review was held at Ohio University, Athens, Ohio, July 14-15, 1994. The Joint University Program is a coordinated set of three grants sponsored by NASA Langley Research Center and the Federal Aviation Administration, one each with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (NGL-22-009-640), Ohio University (NGR-36-009-017), and Princeton University (NGL-31-001-252). Completed works, status reports, and annotated bibliographies are presented for research topics which include navigation, guidance and control theory and practice, aircraft performance, human factors, and expert systems concepts applied to aircraft and airport operations. An overview of the year's activities for each university is also presented.

  16. Developing air quality forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Pius; Saylor, Rick; Meagher, James

    2012-05-01

    Third International Workshop on Air Quality Forecasting Research; Potomac, Maryland, 29 November to 1 December 2011 Elevated concentrations of both near-surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter smaller than 2.5 micrometers in diameter have been implicated in increased mortality and other human health impacts. In light of these known influences on human health, many governments around the world have instituted air quality forecasting systems to provide their citizens with advance warning of impending poor air quality so that they can take actions to limit exposure. In an effort to improve the performance of air quality forecasting systems and provide a forum for the exchange of the latest research in air quality modeling, the International Workshop on Air Quality Forecasting Research (IWAQFR) was established in 2009 and is cosponsored by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Environment Canada (EC), and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The steering committee for IWAQFR's establishment was composed of Véronique Bouchet, Mike Howe, and Craig Stoud (EC); Greg Carmichael (University of Iowa); Paula Davidson and Jim Meagher (NOAA); and Liisa Jalkanen (WMO). The most recent workshop took place in Maryland.

  17. Use of Ground Penetrating Radar at the FAA's National Airport Pavement Test Facility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Injun, Song

    2015-04-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in the United States has used a ground-coupled Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) at the National Airport Pavement Test Facility (NAPTF) since 2005. One of the primary objectives of the testing at the facility is to provide full-scale pavement response and failure information for use in airplane landing gear design and configuration studies. During the traffic testing at the facility, a GSSI GPR system was used to develop new procedures for monitoring Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) pavement density changes that is directly related to pavement failure. After reviewing current setups for data acquisition software and procedures for identifying different pavement layers, dielectric constant and pavement thickness were selected as dominant parameters controlling HMA properties provided by GPR. A new methodology showing HMA density changes in terms of dielectric constant variations, called dielectric sweep test, was developed and applied in full-scale pavement test. The dielectric constant changes were successfully monitored with increasing airplane traffic numbers. The changes were compared to pavement performance data (permanent deformation). The measured dielectric constants based on the known HMA thicknesses were also compared with computed dielectric constants using an equation from ASTM D4748-98 Standard Test Method for Determining the Thickness of Bound Pavement Layers Using Short-Pulse Radar. Six inches diameter cylindrical cores were taken after construction and traffic testing for the HMA layer bulk specific gravity. The measured bulk specific gravity was also compared to monitor HMA density changes caused by aircraft traffic conditions. Additionally this presentation will review the applications of the FAA's ground-coupled GPR on embedded rebar identification in concrete pavement, sewer pipes in soil, and gage identifications in 3D plots.

  18. Federal Aviation Administration retained savings program proposal

    SciTech Connect

    Hostick, D.J.; Larson, L.L.; Hostick, C.J.

    1998-03-01

    Federal legislation allows federal agencies to retain up to 50% of the savings associated with implementing energy efficiency and water conservation measures and practices. Given budget pressures to reduce expenditures, the use of retained savings to fund additional projects represents a source of funds outside of the traditional budget cycle. The Southwest Region Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has tasked Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to develop a model retained savings program for Southwest Region FAA use and as a prototype for consideration by the FAA. PNNL recommends the following steps be taken in developing a Southwest Region FAA retained savings program: Establish a retained savings mechanism. Determine the level at which the retained savings should be consolidated into a fund. The preliminary recommendation is to establish a revolving efficiency loan fund at the regional level. Such a mechanism allows some consolidation of savings to fund larger projects, while maintaining a sense of facility ownership in that the funds will remain within the region.

  19. FAA center for aviation systems reliability: an overview

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brasche, Lisa J. H.

    1996-11-01

    The FAA Center for Aviation Systems Reliability has as its objectives: to develop quantitative nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods for aircraft structures and materials, including prototype instrumentation, software, techniques and procedures; and to develop and maintain comprehensive education and training programs specific to the inspection of aviation structures. The program, which includes contributions from Iowa State University, Northwestern University, Wayne State University, Tuskegee University, AlliedSignal Propulsion Engines, General Electric Aircraft Engines and Pratt and Whitney, has been in existence since 1990. Efforts under way include: development of inspection for adhesively bonded structures; detection of corrosion; development of advanced NDE concepts that form the basis for an inspection simulator; improvements of titanium inspection as part of the Engine Titanium Consortium; development of education and training program. An overview of the efforts underway will be provided with focus on those technologies closest to technology transfer.

  20. NASA/FAA general aviation crash dynamics program - An update

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hayduk, R. J.; Thomson, R. G.; Carden, H. D.

    1979-01-01

    Work in progress in the NASA/FAA General Aviation Crash Dynamics Program for the development of technology for increased crash-worthiness and occupant survivability of general aviation aircraft is presented. Full-scale crash testing facilities and procedures are outlined, and a chronological summary of full-scale tests conducted and planned is presented. The Plastic and Large Deflection Analysis of Nonlinear Structures and Modified Seat Occupant Model for Light Aircraft computer programs which form part of the effort to predict nonlinear geometric and material behavior of sheet-stringer aircraft structures subjected to large deformations are described, and excellent agreement between simulations and experiments is noted. The development of structural concepts to attenuate the load transmitted to the passenger through the seats and subfloor structure is discussed, and an apparatus built to test emergency locator transmitters in a realistic environment is presented.

  1. Potassium determinations using SEM, FAAS and XRF: some experimental notes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liritzis, I.; Mavrikis, D.; Zacharias, N.; Sakalis, A.; Tsirliganis, N.; Polymeris, G.S.

    The calibration of Scanning Electron Microscopy coupled with Energy Dispersive X- Rays Spec-trometry (SEM-EDS) for elemental quantitative analysis is an important task for characterization, provenance and absolute dating purposes. In particular the potassium determination is an im-portant contributor to dose rate assessments in luminescence and Electron Spin Resonance (ESR) dating. Here a SEM-EDX is calibrated on different archaeological and geoarchaeological materials against standard laboratory samples as well as measured by micro X-Rays Fluorescence (μXRF) and flame atomic absorption spectroscopy (FAAS) techniques. A common linear relationship is obtained for most elements and certain rock types used and two clear linear regressions for two types of rocks; one for granite, diorite, microgranite and sediments and another ceramic sherds, soils, marble schists, breccia. Such linear regressions become readily available for a future fast, efficient and accu-rate way of potassium determination.

  2. FAA Integrated Noise Model User’s Guide,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1976-03-01

    lcsl kiport Docum .ntatioo Pog. 3 . R.cipi .nt e Catalog No. c2.~ FAA~~~~~~~ 2 J j 2. Gov .rn m.n~ Acc .,sie n No. @~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~ pg,.4 T tI. and...2.4 Flight Track Definitions 2— 3 2.5 Total Traffic Mix 2—14 2.6 Traffic Mix Allocation 2—18 2.7 User Options 2—19 3 . ALTERNATE NOISE DATA 3 —1 3.1...Background 3 —1 3.2 Specifying Alternate Noise Library Entries 3 —1 3.2.1 Library Identification 3 —2 3.2 .2 ProfIle Data 3 —2 3.2.3 Acoustic Data 3 —7 4

  3. Forecasting Earthquakes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1994-01-01

    In this video there are scenes of damage from the Northridge Earthquake and interviews with Dr. Andrea Donnelan, Geophysics at JPL, and Dr. Jim Dolan, earthquake geologist from Cal. Tech. The interviews discuss earthquake forecasting by tracking changes in the earth's crust using antenna receiving signals from a series of satellites called the Global Positioning System (GPS).

  4. Reasonable Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Kelley R.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents a sample legal battle that illustrates school officials' "reasonable forecasts" of substantial disruption in the school environment. In 2006, two students from a Texas high school came to school carrying purses decorated with images of the Confederate flag. The school district has a zero-tolerance policy for…

  5. Turbulence forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chandler, C. L.

    1987-01-01

    In order to forecast turbulence, one needs to have an understanding of the cause of turbulence. Therefore, an attempt is made to show the atmospheric structure that often results when aircraft encounter moderate or greater turbulence. The analysis is based on thousands of hours of observations of flights over the past 39 years of aviation meteorology.

  6. 75 FR 12809 - Federal Aviation Administration

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-03-17

    ... Federal Aviation Administration Notice of Intent To Rule on Request To Release Airport Property at the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, DFW Airport, Texas AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA... provisions of Section 125 of the Wendell H. Ford Aviation Investment Reform Act for the 21st Century (AIR...

  7. TRAVEL FORECASTER

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mauldin, L. E.

    1994-01-01

    Business travel planning within an organization is often a time-consuming task. Travel Forecaster is a menu-driven, easy-to-use program which plans, forecasts cost, and tracks actual vs. planned cost for business-related travel of a division or branch of an organization and compiles this information into a database to aid the travel planner. The program's ability to handle multiple trip entries makes it a valuable time-saving device. Travel Forecaster takes full advantage of relational data base properties so that information that remains constant, such as per diem rates and airline fares (which are unique for each city), needs entering only once. A typical entry would include selection with the mouse of the traveler's name and destination city from pop-up lists, and typed entries for number of travel days and purpose of the trip. Multiple persons can be selected from the pop-up lists and multiple trips are accommodated by entering the number of days by each appropriate month on the entry form. An estimated travel cost is not required of the user as it is calculated by a Fourth Dimension formula. With this information, the program can produce output of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for either organization or sub-entity of an organization; or produce outputs of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for international-only travel. It will also provide monthly and cumulative formats of planned vs. actual outputs in data or graph form. Travel Forecaster users can do custom queries to search and sort information in the database, and it can create custom reports with the user-friendly report generator. Travel Forecaster 1.1 is a database program for use with Fourth Dimension Runtime 2.1.1. It requires a Macintosh Plus running System 6.0.3 or later, 2Mb of RAM and a hard disk. The standard distribution medium for this package is one 3.5 inch 800K Macintosh format diskette. Travel Forecaster was developed in 1991. Macintosh is a registered trademark of

  8. Forecaster's dilemma: Extreme events and forecast evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lerch, Sebastian; Thorarinsdottir, Thordis; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Gneiting, Tilmann

    2015-04-01

    In discussions of the quality of forecasts in the media and public, attention often focuses on the predictive performance in the case of extreme events. Intuitively, accurate predictions on the subset of extreme events seem to suggest better predictive ability. However, it can be demonstrated that restricting conventional forecast verification methods to subsets of observations might have unexpected and undesired effects and may discredit even the most skillful forecasters. Hand-picking extreme events is incompatible with the theoretical assumptions of established forecast verification methods, thus confronting forecasters with what we refer to as the forecaster's dilemma. For probabilistic forecasts, weighted proper scoring rules provide suitable alternatives for forecast evaluation with an emphasis on extreme events. Using theoretical arguments, simulation experiments and a case study on probabilistic forecasts of wind speed over Germany, we illustrate the forecaster's dilemma and the use of weighted proper scoring rules.

  9. Communicating Environmental Uncertainty: The Nature of Weather Forecasts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Travis, Richard W.; Riebsame, William E.

    1979-01-01

    Traces the path of weather forecasts from the time they are made by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration until the time they are received by the public through the mass media. The purpose of the article is to provide geography teachers with basic information on weather forecasts, interpretation of forecast terms, and indications…

  10. Executive skills 21: a forecast of leadership skills and associated competencies required by naval hospital administrators into the 21st century.

    PubMed

    Sentell, J W; Finstuen, K

    1998-01-01

    Those in the Naval Medical Department are experiencing an exciting time of bridled chaos and creative change. Many mid-career officers are uncertain of the leadership behaviors and skills that will be necessary for successful managerial careers. Changes in the method of health care delivery of this nation combined with the reengineering of the armed forces' world-wide mission has driven military medical leaders to expand their professional skills, knowledge, and abilities beyond the clinical sciences. This research identifies the most critical domains in the science of health care administration and differentiates and ranks job skill, knowledge, and ability requirements that will be necessary for successful health care management into the 21st century. Top Naval hospital executives responded to two iterations of a Delphi inquiry. These medical leaders identified 106 unique issues that were content-analyzed into nine domains by a neutral, expert panel. Domains, in order of ranked importance, were leadership, health care delivery systems, cost-finance, technology, accessibility, professional staff relations, marketing, quality-risk management, and ethics. In the second Delphi iteration, hospital executives reviewed domain results and rated identified job requirements on their required job importance. The top-10 rated skills, knowledge, and abilities are reported. Results indicated that although a business orientation is needed for organizational survival, an emphasis on person-oriented skills, knowledge, and abilities is required for future success as a health care administrator in the Naval health care system.

  11. Guidelines for Federal Aviation Administration Regional Aviation Education Coordinators and Aviation Education Facilitators.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Strickler, Mervin K., Jr.

    This publication is designed to provide both policy guidance and examples of how to work with various constituencies in planning and carrying out appropriate Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) aviation education activities. Information is provided on the history of aerospace/aviation education, FAA educational materials, aerospace/aviation…

  12. Fracture Analysis of the FAA/NASA Wide Stiffened Panels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Seshadri, B. R.; Newman, J. C., Jr.; Dawicke, D. S.; Young, R. D.

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents the fracture analyses conducted on the FAA/NASA stiffened and unstiffened panels using the STAGS (STructural Analysis of General Shells) code with the critical crack-tip-opening angle (CTOA) fracture criterion. The STAGS code with the "plane-strain" core option was used in all analyses. Previous analyses of wide, flat panels have shown that the high-constraint conditions around a crack front, like plane strain, has to be modeled in order for the critical CTOA fracture criterion to predict wide panel failures from small laboratory tests. In the present study, the critical CTOA value was determined from a wide (unstiffened) panel with anti-buckling guides. The plane-strain core size was estimated from previous fracture analyses and was equal to about the sheet thickness. Rivet flexibility and stiffener failure was based on methods and criteria, like that currently used in industry. STAGS and the CTOA criterion were used to predict load-against-crack extension for the wide panels with a single crack and multiple-site damage cracking at many adjacent rivet holes. Analyses were able to predict stable crack growth and residual strength with a few percent (5%) of stiffened panel tests results but over predicted the buckling failure load on a unstiffened panel with a single crack by 10%.

  13. Controlled impact demonstration seat/cabin restraint systems: FAA

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, R. A.

    1986-01-01

    The FAA restraint system experiments consisted of 24 standard and modified seats, 2 standard galleys and 2 standard overhead compartments. Under the controlled impact demonstration (CID) program, the experimental objective was to demonstrate the effectiveness of individual restraint system designs when exposed to a survivable air-to-ground impact condition. What researchers were looking for was the performance exhibited by standard and modified designs, performance differences resulting from their installed cabin location, and interrelating performance demonstrated by test article and attaching floor and/or fuselage structure. The other restraint system experiment consisted of 2 standard overhead stowage compartments and 2 galley modules. Again, researchers were concerned with the retention of stowed equipment and carry-on articles. The overhead compartments were loaded with test weights up to their maximum capacity, and each of the galleys was filled with test articles: aft with normal galley equipment, forward with hazardous material test packages. A breakdown of instrumentation and distribution is given beginning with 11 instrumented type anthropomorphic dummies and 185 sensors which provided for acceleration and load measurements at the various experiment and associated structure locations. The onboard cameras provided additional coverage of these experiments, including the areas of cabin which were not instrumented. Test results showing the window-side leg forces versus pulse duration are given.

  14. FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) Assessment of Satellite Concepts and Aviation Spectrum Requirements.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1985-02-01

    will be available to all :-112,-S. t is also assumed that zhe sata iite navigation systcm, if GPS, will nave evolved aid imrprove(i to became toe pzime...1575.42 MHz; the total GPS system, with its dual frequency precision tanging capability, utilizes a total orf s,;hg,-y gt over 40 alz (+10.23 MALz centered

  15. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Reauthorization: An Overview of Legislative Action in the 111th Congress

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-03-30

    are substantially delayed, and it seeks an increase in funding for Essential Air Service (EAS) subsidies and small community air service grants. On...distributed either as formula grants or as discretionary grants. Small airports are much more dependent on AIP grants than large and medium hub airports...the AIP funding that is not distributed under the apportioned entitlements as well as the forgone PFC revenues that are not directed to the small

  16. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Reauthorization: An Overview of Legislative Action in the 111th Congress

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-03-22

    an increase in funding for Essential Air Service (EAS) subsidies and small community air service grants. On March 10, 2010, the Senate began...are distributed either as formula grants or as discretionary grants. Small airports are much more dependent on AIP grants than large and medium hub...directed to the small airport fund. Related PFC changes are discussed later in this report. Minimum Discretionary Fund 49 U.S.C. 47115 requires that

  17. Index to FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) Office of Aviation Medicine Reports: 1961 through 1982,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-01-01

    high: The aeromedical aspects of marihuana . AD775889 73-13 Tobias, J. V., and Irons, F. M.: Reception of distorted speech. AD777564 73-14 Thackray, R. I...Steen, J. A.: Interaction between marihuana and altitude on a complex behavioral task in baboons. ADA020680/5GI 75-7 Melton, C. E., Jr., Smith, R. C...68-16, 69-2, 78-31, 80-4. hangover effects, 79-7, 79-26. Altitude and heat on performance, 71-17. and marihuana effects on performance, 75-6. chamber

  18. Modeling and forecasting U.S. sex differentials in mortality.

    PubMed

    Carter, L R; Lee, R D

    1992-11-01

    "This paper examines differentials in observed and forecasted sex-specific life expectancies and longevity in the United States from 1900 to 2065. Mortality models are developed and used to generate long-run forecasts, with confidence intervals that extend recent work by Lee and Carter (1992). These results are compared for forecast accuracy with univariate naive forecasts of life expectancies and those prepared by the Actuary of the Social Security Administration."

  19. 78 FR 6400 - Results of FAA Nitrous Oxide BLEVE Characterization Testing

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-01-30

    ... containing nitrous oxide stored under pressure above its normal boiling point. The FAA's Office of Commercial... commercial reusable launch vehicles. A potential hazard in nitrous oxide storage and handling is a...

  20. Forecast Mekong

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Turnipseed, D. Phil

    2011-01-01

    Forecast Mekong is part of the U.S. Department of State's Lower Mekong Initiative, which was launched in 2009 by Secretary Hillary Clinton and the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam to enhance partnerships between the U.S. and the Lower Mekong River countries in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is working in close cooperation with the U.S. Department of State to use research and data from the Lower Mekong Basin to provide hands-on results that will help decision makers in Lower Mekong River countries in the planning and design for restoration, conservation, and management efforts in the basin.

  1. Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC): NASA to FAA Research Transition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Engelland, Shawn; Davis, Thomas J.

    2013-01-01

    departure runway assignments to the Center scheduling tool. The PDRC concept also incorporates earlier NASA and FAA research into automation-assisted CFR coordination. The PDRC concept reduces uncertainty by automatically communicating coordinated release times with seconds-level precision enabling TMCs and FLMs to work with target times rather than windows. NASA has developed a PDRC prototype system that integrates the Center's TMA system with a research prototype Tower decision support tool. A two-phase field evaluation was conducted at NASA's North Texas Research Station in Dallas-Fort Worth. The field evaluation validated the PDRC concept and demonstrated reduced release time uncertainty while being used for tactical departure scheduling of more than 230 operational flights over 29 weeks of operations.

  2. Error models for official mortality forecasts.

    PubMed

    Alho, J M; Spencer, B D

    1990-09-01

    "The Office of the Actuary, U.S. Social Security Administration, produces alternative forecasts of mortality to reflect uncertainty about the future.... In this article we identify the components and assumptions of the official forecasts and approximate them by stochastic parametric models. We estimate parameters of the models from past data, derive statistical intervals for the forecasts, and compare them with the official high-low intervals. We use the models to evaluate the forecasts rather than to develop different predictions of the future. Analysis of data from 1972 to 1985 shows that the official intervals for mortality forecasts for males or females aged 45-70 have approximately a 95% chance of including the true mortality rate in any year. For other ages the chances are much less than 95%."

  3. Aviation Maintenance Technology. Course Content Guides. FAA Approved Curriculum.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shrawder, Jack; And Others

    Course content guides are provided for the 30 courses in this aviation maintenance technology curriculum approved by the Federal Aviation Administration. Course titles are physics for technicians; aircraft information, regulations, and procedures; aircraft assembly; fundamentals of aircraft electronics; aircraft electrical components; aircraft…

  4. Survey: Federal Aviation Administration National Communication Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    The National Communication (NATCOM) Center (commonly known as the FAA Weather Message Switching Center), is a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) facility with responsibility for providing communication switching services to the National Weather Service (NWS), the FAA, commercial and private flight organizations under the auspices of the FAA, and DoD. Data handled by NATCOM include weather data, flight plans, and Notices to Airmen (NOTAMS) on both national and international networks. The communications and data management functions are handled through four computer-controlled communication networks designated as WMSC, AFTN, A-BDIS, and NASNET. The functions of these networks are discussed with emphasis on those networks that support the different elements of the NWS. The primary network of concern to NASA, the WMSC (Weather Message Switching Center) network, performs approximately 60 percent of its work for the NWS, 20 percent for the State Department, and 20 percent for the FAA. This document discusses the current and future systems capabilities and workload of NATCOM in terms of new roles.

  5. AN OPERATIONAL EVALUATION OF THE ETA-CMAQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in collaboration with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), are developing an Air Quality Forecasting Program that will eventually result in an operational Nationwide Air Quality Forecasting System. The initial pha...

  6. Improved Anvil Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lambert, Winifred C.

    2000-01-01

    This report describes the outcome of Phase 1 of the AMU's Improved Anvil Forecasting task. Forecasters in the 45th Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group have found that anvil forecasting is a difficult task when predicting LCC and FR violations. The purpose of this task is to determine the technical feasibility of creating an anvil-forecasting tool. Work on this study was separated into three steps: literature search, forecaster discussions, and determination of technical feasibility. The literature search revealed no existing anvil-forecasting techniques. However, there appears to be growing interest in anvils in recent years. If this interest continues to grow, more information will be available to aid in developing a reliable anvil-forecasting tool. The forecaster discussion step revealed an array of methods on how better forecasting techniques could be developed. The forecasters have ideas based on sound meteorological principles and personal experience in forecasting and analyzing anvils. Based on the information gathered in the discussions with the forecasters, the conclusion of this report is that it is technically feasible at this time to develop an anvil forecasting technique that will significantly contribute to the confidence in anvil forecasts.

  7. A perspective on the FAA approval process: Integrating rotorcraft displays, controls and workload

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Green, David L.; Hart, Jake; Hwoschinsky, Peter

    1993-01-01

    The FAA is responsible for making the determination that a helicopter is safe for IFR operations in the National Airspace System (NAS). This involves objective and subjective evaluations of cockpit displays, flying qualities, procedures and human factors as they affect performance and workload. After all of the objective evaluations are completed, and all Federal Regulations have been met, FAA pilots make the final subjective judgement as to suitability for use by civil pilots in the NAS. The paper uses the flying qualities and pilot workload characteristics of a small helicopter to help examine the FAA pilot's involvement in this process. The result highlights the strengths of the process and its importance to the approval of new aircraft and equipments for civil IFR helicopter applications. The paper also identifies opportunities for improvement.

  8. FAA Statistical Handbook of Aviation, Calendar Year 1992

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-01-01

    94-5 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS) Federal Aviation Administration 800 Independence Avenue, S.W. 11. Contract...Total Change Change Change Total Change Cange Total Instrument 1962 45,658,593 1% 13,450,145 -1% 9,895,443 5% 18.172,317 +2 4,140,688 4% Operawon...Air Pacific Coast Aero Coach Ellis Air Taxi Pacific Island Air Alpha Empire Airways Pan Am Express Air Cape ERA Aviation Panorama Air Tours Air L. A

  9. FAA Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) operated by Sandia National Laboratories.

    SciTech Connect

    Roach, Dennis Patrick; Hartman, Roger D.

    2010-09-01

    Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) objectives are: (1) Enhance aircraft safety and reliability; (2) Aid developing advanced aircraft designs and maintenance techniques; (3) Provide our customers with comprehensive, independent, and quantitative/qualitative evaluations of new and enhanced inspection, maintenance, and repair techniques; (4) Facilitate transferring effective technologies into the aviation industry; (5) Support FAA rulemaking process by providing guidance on content & necessary tools to meet requirements or recommendations of FARs, ADs, ACs, SBs, SSIDs, CPCP, and WFD; and (6) Coordinate with and respond to Airworthiness Assurance Working Group (AAWG) in support of FAA Aviation Rulemaking Advisory Committee (ARAC).

  10. The meta-Gaussian Bayesian Processor of forecasts and associated preliminary experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Fajing; Jiao, Meiyan; Chen, Jing

    2013-04-01

    Public weather services are trending toward providing users with probabilistic weather forecasts, in place of traditional deterministic forecasts. Probabilistic forecasting techniques are continually being improved to optimize available forecasting information. The Bayesian Processor of Forecast (BPF), a new statistical method for probabilistic forecast, can transform a deterministic forecast into a probabilistic forecast according to the historical statistical relationship between observations and forecasts generated by that forecasting system. This technique accounts for the typical forecasting performance of a deterministic forecasting system in quantifying the forecast uncertainty. The meta-Gaussian likelihood model is suitable for a variety of stochastic dependence structures with monotone likelihood ratios. The meta-Gaussian BPF adopting this kind of likelihood model can therefore be applied across many fields, including meteorology and hydrology. The Bayes theorem with two continuous random variables and the normal-linear BPF are briefly introduced. The meta-Gaussian BPF for a continuous predictand using a single predictor is then presented and discussed. The performance of the meta-Gaussian BPF is tested in a preliminary experiment. Control forecasts of daily surface temperature at 0000 UTC at Changsha and Wuhan stations are used as the deterministic forecast data. These control forecasts are taken from ensemble predictions with a 96-h lead time generated by the National Meteorological Center of the China Meteorological Administration, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction during January 2008. The results of the experiment show that the meta-Gaussian BPF can transform a deterministic control forecast of surface temperature from any one of the three ensemble predictions into a useful probabilistic forecast of surface temperature. These probabilistic forecasts quantify the uncertainty

  11. Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Using Optimized Consensus in the Western North Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jun, S.; LEE, W.; Byun, K.; Chang, K.; Lee, J.

    2013-12-01

    This study investigates an optimized consensus method using superensemble, which had the highest skill for 2012 tropical cyclone forecast in NHC, to provide good guidance to forecasters. The superensemble forecast is partitioned into a training phase and forecast phase. In the training phase, weights and bias estimation for the models are calculated on the basis of past forecasts via linear regression. Each forecasted track (latitude, longitude) per forecast period (24h, 48h, 72h, etc.) is obtained by the regression coefficients optimized in the past 2-year training period. We used the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) analysis data as the reference value and model (ECMWF, GFS, etc.) forecast data over the western North Pacific during 2011-2013 to verify the superensemble forecast results. The optimized consensus track forecast method, e.g., the monthly weighting, typhoon track classification, has been tested for tropical cyclones in 2013.

  12. Stochastic demographic forecasting.

    PubMed

    Lee, R D

    1992-11-01

    "This paper describes a particular approach to stochastic population forecasting, which is implemented for the U.S.A. through 2065. Statistical time series methods are combined with demographic models to produce plausible long run forecasts of vital rates, with probability distributions. The resulting mortality forecasts imply gains in future life expectancy that are roughly twice as large as those forecast by the Office of the Social Security Actuary.... Resulting stochastic forecasts of the elderly population, elderly dependency ratios, and payroll tax rates for health, education and pensions are presented."

  13. Forecast-skill-based simulation of streamflow forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Tongtiegang; Zhao, Jianshi

    2014-09-01

    Streamflow forecasts are updated periodically in real time, thereby facilitating forecast evolution. This study proposes a forecast-skill-based model of forecast evolution that is able to simulate dynamically updated streamflow forecasts. The proposed model applies stochastic models that deal with streamflow variability to generate streamflow scenarios, which represent cases without forecast skill of future streamflow. The model then employs a coefficient of prediction to determine forecast skill and to quantify the streamflow variability ratio explained by the forecast. By updating the coefficients of prediction periodically, the model efficiently captures the evolution of streamflow forecast. Simulated forecast uncertainty increases with increasing lead time; and simulated uncertainty during a specific future period decreases over time. We combine the statistical model with an optimization model and design a hypothetical case study of reservoir operation. The results indicate the significance of forecast skill in forecast-based reservoir operation. Shortage index reduces as forecast skill increases and ensemble forecast outperforms deterministic forecast at a similar forecast skill level. Moreover, an effective forecast horizon exists beyond which more forecast information does not contribute to reservoir operation and higher forecast skill results in longer effective forecast horizon. The results illustrate that the statistical model is efficient in simulating forecast evolution and facilitates analysis of forecast-based decision making.

  14. The genomic organization of the Fanconi anemia group A (FAA) gene

    SciTech Connect

    Ianzano, L.; Centra, M.; Savino, M.

    1997-05-01

    Fanconi anemia (FA) is a genetically heterogeneous disease involving at least five genes on the basis of complementation analysis (FAA to FAE). The FAA gene has been recently isolated by two independent approaches, positional and functional cloning. In the present study we describe the genomic structure of the FAA gene. The gene contains 43 exons spanning approximately 80 kb as determined by the alignment of four cosmids and the fine localization of the first and the last exons in restriction fragments of these clones. Exons range from 34 to 188 bp. All but three of the splice sites were consistent with the ag-gt rule. We also describe three alternative splicing events in cDNA clones that result in the loss of exon 37, a 23-bp deletion at the 5{prime} end of exon 41. Sequence analysis of the 5{prime} region upstream of the putative transcription start site showed no obvious TATA and CAAT boxes, but did show a GC-rich region, typical of housekeeping genes. Knowledge of the structure of the FAA gene will provide an invaluable resource for the discovery of mutations in the gene that accounts for about 60-66% of FA patients. 24 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  15. Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA Conference on Fibrous Composites in Structural Design, volume 2

    SciTech Connect

    Soderquist, J.R.; Neri, L.M.; Bohon, H.L.

    1992-09-01

    This publication contains the proceedings of the Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA Conference on Fibrous Composites in Structural Design held at Lake Tahoe, Nevada, during 4-7 Nov. 1991. Presentations were made in the following areas of composite structural design: perspectives in composites, design methodology, design applications, design criteria, supporting technology, damage tolerance, and manufacturing.

  16. Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA Conference on Fibrous Composites in Structural Design, volume 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Soderquist, Joseph R. (Compiler); Neri, Lawrence M. (Compiler); Bohon, Herman L. (Compiler)

    1992-01-01

    This publication contains the proceedings of the Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA conference on Fibrous Composites in structural Design. Presentations were made in the following areas of composite structural design: perspectives in composites; design methodology; design applications; design criteria; supporting technology; damage tolerance; and manufacturing.

  17. Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA Conference on Fibrous Composites in Structural Design, volume 3

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Soderquist, Joseph R. (Compiler); Neri, Lawrence M. (Compiler); Bohon, Herman L. (Compiler)

    1992-01-01

    This publication contains the proceedings of the Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA Conference on Fibrous Composites in Structural Design held at Lake Tahoe, Nevada, during 4-7 Nov. 1991. Presentations were made in the following areas of composite structural design: perspectives in composites, design methodology, design applications, design criteria, supporting technology, damage tolerance, and manufacturing.

  18. Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA Conference on Fibrous Composites in Structural Design, volume 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Soderquist, Joseph R. (Compiler); Neri, Lawrence M. (Compiler); Bohon, Herman L. (Compiler)

    1992-01-01

    This publication contains the proceedings of the Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA Conference on Fibrous Composites in Structural Design held at Lake Tahoe, Nevada, during 4-7 Nov. 1991. Presentations were made in the following areas of composite structural design: perspectives in composites, design methodology, design applications, design criteria, supporting technology, damage tolerance, and manufacturing.

  19. 14 CFR 193.9 - Will the FAA ever disclose information that is designated as protected under this part?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... is designated as protected under this part? 193.9 Section 193.9 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL... protected under this part? The FAA discloses information that is designated as protected under this part when withholding it would not be consistent with the FAA's safety and security responsibilities,...

  20. Superfund record of decision (EPA Region 2): FAA Technical Center, Atlantic County, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ. (Third remedial action), September 1992. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1992-09-30

    The 5,000-acre FAA Technical Center site is located 8 miles northwest of Atlantic City, Atlantic Count, New Jersey, within the Atlantic Coastal Plain. In 1942, a Naval Air Base, including most of the existing runways, was constructed over two-thirds of the property. Interest in the property was transferred to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in 1958 for use as research and development facilities and for the 1979 construction of the existing Technical/Administration Building. From 1978 to 1985, transformers containing PCB oil were stored on a 25- by 75-foot concrete pad, referred to as Area G, located at the lumber yard near building 125 in the western portion of the property. Some transformers are known to have leaked, contaminating the concrete pad and surrounding soil. During 1989, the entire concrete pad and contaminated soil were collected, excavated, and disposed of in an approved TSCA cell of a landfill. The ROD addresses principal threats to human health or the environment associated with PCB releases from the Area G transformer storage location. Based on the results of subsequent sampling, it is believed that Area G no longer poses a threat to human health or the environment.

  1. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  2. THE NEW ENGLAND AIR QUALITY FORECASTING PILOT PROGRAM: DEVELOPMENT OF AN EVALUATION PROTOCOL AND PERFORMANCE BENCHMARK

    EPA Science Inventory

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently sponsored the New England Forecasting Pilot Program to serve as a "test bed" for chemical forecasting by providing all of the elements of a National Air Quality Forecasting System, including the development and implemen...

  3. Enrollment Forecasting. Educational Facilities Digest 1.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Piele, Philip; Wright, Darrell

    Enrollment forecasting is a subject for scholars of varied interests and concerns. The literature reflects several perspectives, including those of school administrators, facilities planners, mathematicians, statisticians, demographers, and computer programmers. This pamphlet contains an analysis and annotated bibliographies of 29 publications on…

  4. Weather forecasting expert system study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

  5. Future freeze forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bartholic, J. F.; Sutherland, R. A.

    1979-01-01

    Real time GOES thermal data acquisition, an energy balance minimum temperature prediction model and a statistical model are incorporated into a minicomputer system. These components make up the operational "Satellite Freeze Forecast System" being used to aid NOAA, NWS forecasters in developing their freeze forecasts. The general concept of the system is presented in this paper. Specific detailed aspects of the system can be found in the reference cited.

  6. Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wetterhall, Fredrik; Pappenberger, Florian; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Cloke, Hannah; Thielen, Jutta

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

  7. Weather assessment and forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    Data management program activities centered around the analyses of selected far-term Office of Applications (OA) objectives, with the intent of determining if significant data-related problems would be encountered and if so what alternative solutions would be possible. Three far-term (1985 and beyond) OA objectives selected for analyses as having potential significant data problems were large-scale weather forecasting, local weather and severe storms forecasting, and global marine weather forecasting. An overview of general weather forecasting activities and their implications upon the ground based data system is provided. Selected topics were specifically oriented to the use of satellites.

  8. Extraction of nickel from edible oils with a complexing agent prior to determination by FAAS.

    PubMed

    Tokay, Feyzullah; Bağdat, Sema

    2016-04-15

    In the present work, a new extraction method for separation of nickel from edible oils and determination by FAAS is reported. This method is based on extraction of Ni(II) ions from the oil to aqueous phase with N,N'-bis(4-methoxysalicylidene) ethylenediamine (MSE) and determination by FAAS. Properties of the complex formed between MSE and Ni(II) were investigated spectrophotometrically. Central composite design (CCD) was utilized for optimization of MSE to oil, stirring time and temperature, which were 0.97 mL g(-1), 15.4 min, and 29.7°C, respectively. The developed method was tested with an oil-based metal standard and the recovery was 93.8±3.9%. The proposed method was applied with five different edible oils.

  9. Proceedings of the FAA-NASA Symposium on the Continued Airworthiness of Aircraft Structures. Volume 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bigelow, Catherine A. (Compiler)

    1997-01-01

    This publication contains the fifty-two technical papers presented at the FAA-NASA Symposium on the Continued Airworthiness of Aircraft Structures. The symposium, hosted by the FAA Center of Excellence for Computational Modeling of Aircraft Structures at Georgia Institute of Technology, was held to disseminate information on recent developments in advanced technologies to extend the life of high-time aircraft and design longer-life aircraft. Affiliations of the participants included 33% from government agencies and laboratories, 19% from academia, and 48% from industry; in all 240 people were in attendance. Technical papers were selected for presentation at the symposium, after a review of extended abstracts received by the Organizing Committee from a general call for papers.

  10. Proceedings of the FAA-NASA Symposium on the Continued Airworthiness of Aircraft Structures. Volume 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bigelow, Catherine A. (Compiler)

    1997-01-01

    This publication contains the fifty-two technical papers presented at the FAA-NASA Symposium on the Continued Airworthiness of Aircraft Structures. The symposium, hosted by the FAA Center of Excellence for Computational Modeling of Aircraft Structures at Georgia Institute of Technology, was held to disseminate information on recent developments in advanced technologies to extend the life of high-time aircraft and design longer-life aircraft. Affiliations of the participants included 33% from government agencies and laboratories, 19% from academia, and 48% from industry; in all 240 people were in attendance. Technical papers were selected for presentation at the symposium, after a review of extended abstracts received by the Organizing Committee from a general call for papers.

  11. Forecasting Future Trends in Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Collazo, Andres; And Others

    1977-01-01

    Describes a forecasting model sensitive to the major factors influencing educational outcomes, presents several forecasts based on alternative sets of assumptions, and discusses the implications of these forecasts, including ways to subvert them. (Author/JG)

  12. Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA Conference on Fibrous Composites in Structural Design, volume 3

    SciTech Connect

    Soderquist, J.R.; Neri, L.M.; Bohon, H.L.

    1992-09-01

    This publication contains the proceedings of the Ninth DOD/NASA/FAA Conference on Fibrous Composites in Structural Design held at Lake Tahoe, Nevada, during 4-7 Nov. 1991. Presentations were made in the following areas of composite structural design: perspectives in composites, design methodology, design applications, design criteria, supporting technology, damage tolerance, and manufacturing. Separate abstracts have been prepared for articles from this report.

  13. NextGen Technologies on the FAA's Standard Terminal Automation Replacement System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Witzberger, Kevin; Swenson, Harry; Martin, Lynne; Lin, Melody; Cheng, Jinn-Hwei

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the integration, evaluation, and results from a high-fidelity human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulation of key NASA Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration - 1 (ATD- 1) technologies implemented in an enhanced version of the FAA's Standard Terminal Automation Replacement System (STARS) platform. These ATD-1 technologies include: (1) a NASA enhanced version of the FAA's Time-Based Flow Management, (2) a NASA ground-based automation technology known as controller-managed spacing (CMS), and (3) a NASA advanced avionics airborne technology known as flight-deck interval management (FIM). These ATD-1 technologies have been extensively tested in large-scale HITL simulations using general-purpose workstations to study air transportation technologies. These general purpose workstations perform multiple functions and are collectively referred to as the Multi-Aircraft Control System (MACS). Researchers at NASA Ames Research Center and Raytheon collaborated to augment the STARS platform by including CMS and FIM advisory tools to validate the feasibility of integrating these automation enhancements into the current FAA automation infrastructure. NASA Ames acquired three STARS terminal controller workstations, and then integrated the ATD-1 technologies. HITL simulations were conducted to evaluate the ATD-1 technologies when using the STARS platform. These results were compared with the results obtained when the ATD-1 technologies were tested in the MACS environment. Results collected from the numerical data show acceptably minor differences, and, together with the subjective controller questionnaires showing a trend towards preferring STARS, validate the ATD-1/STARS integration.

  14. Aviation Forecasting in ICAO

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcmahon, J.

    1972-01-01

    Opinions or plans of qualified experts in the field are used for forecasting future requirements for air navigational facilities and services of international civil aviation. ICAO periodically collects information from Stators and operates on anticipated future operations, consolidates this information, and forecasts the future level of activity at different airports.

  15. Value of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts: Assessment by Real-Time Optimization of Irrigation Scheduling

    SciTech Connect

    Cai, Ximing; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Wang, Dingbao

    2011-09-29

    This paper presents a modeling framework for real-time decision support for irrigation scheduling using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) probabilistic rainfall forecasts. The forecasts and their probability distributions are incorporated into a simulation-optimization modeling framework. In this study, modeling irrigation is determined by a stochastic optimization program based on the simulated soil moisture and crop water-stress status and the forecasted rainfall for the next 1-7 days. The modeling framework is applied to irrigated corn in Mason County, Illinois. It is found that there is ample potential to improve current farmers practices by simply using the proposed simulation-optimization framework, which uses the present soil moisture and crop evapotranspiration information even without any forecasts. It is found that the values of the forecasts vary across dry, normal, and wet years. More significant economic gains are found in normal and wet years than in dry years under the various forecast horizons. To mitigate drought effect on crop yield through irrigation, medium- or long-term climate predictions likely play a more important role than short-term forecasts. NOAA's imperfect 1-week forecast is still valuable in terms of both profit gain and water saving. Compared with the no-rain forecast case, the short-term imperfect forecasts could lead to additional 2.4-8.5% gain in profit and 11.0-26.9% water saving. However, the performance of the imperfect forecast is only slightly better than the ensemble weather forecast based on historical data and slightly inferior to the perfect forecast. It seems that the 1-week forecast horizon is too limited to evaluate the role of the various forecast scenarios for irrigation scheduling, which is actually a seasonal decision issue. For irrigation scheduling, both the forecast quality and the length of forecast time horizon matter. Thus, longer forecasts might be necessary to evaluate the role

  16. Using NMME in Region-Specific Operational Seasonal Climate Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gronewold, A.; Bolinger, R. A.; Fry, L. M.; Kompoltowicz, K.

    2015-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) provides access to a suite of real-time monthly climate forecasts that comprise the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) in an attempt to meet increasing demands for monthly to seasonal climate prediction. While the graphical map forecasts of the NMME are informative, there is a need to provide decision-makers with probabilistic forecasts specific to their region of interest. Here, we demonstrate the potential application of the NMME to address regional climate projection needs by developing new forecasts of temperature and precipitation for the North American Great Lakes, the largest system of lakes on Earth. Regional opertional water budget forecasts rely on these outlooks to initiate monthly forecasts not only of the water budget, but of monthly lake water levels as well. More specifically, we present an alternative for improving existing operational protocols that currently involve a relatively time-consuming and subjective procedure based on interpreting the maps of the NMME. In addition, all forecasts are currently presented in the NMME in a probabilistic format, with equal weighting given to each member of the ensemble. In our new evolution of this product, we provide historical context for the forecasts by superimposing them (in an on-line graphical user interface) with the historical range of observations. Implementation of this new tool has already led to noticeable advantages in regional water budget forecasting, and has the potential to be transferred to other regional decision-making authorities as well.

  17. Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Worrell, Ruben

    2010-01-01

    The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger

  18. 14 CFR 406.109 - Administrative law judges-powers and limitations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Administrative law judges-powers and limitations. 406.109 Section 406.109 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION... Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation Adjudications § 406.109 Administrative law...

  19. 14 CFR 406.109 - Administrative law judges-powers and limitations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Administrative law judges-powers and limitations. 406.109 Section 406.109 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION... Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation Adjudications § 406.109 Administrative law...

  20. 14 CFR 406.109 - Administrative law judges-powers and limitations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Administrative law judges-powers and limitations. 406.109 Section 406.109 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION... Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation Adjudications § 406.109 Administrative law...

  1. 14 CFR 406.109 - Administrative law judges-powers and limitations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Administrative law judges-powers and limitations. 406.109 Section 406.109 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION... Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation Adjudications § 406.109 Administrative law...

  2. 14 CFR 406.109 - Administrative law judges-powers and limitations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Administrative law judges-powers and limitations. 406.109 Section 406.109 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION... Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation Adjudications § 406.109 Administrative law...

  3. Statistical evaluation of forecasts.

    PubMed

    Mader, Malenka; Mader, Wolfgang; Gluckman, Bruce J; Timmer, Jens; Schelter, Björn

    2014-08-01

    Reliable forecasts of extreme but rare events, such as earthquakes, financial crashes, and epileptic seizures, would render interventions and precautions possible. Therefore, forecasting methods have been developed which intend to raise an alarm if an extreme event is about to occur. In order to statistically validate the performance of a prediction system, it must be compared to the performance of a random predictor, which raises alarms independent of the events. Such a random predictor can be obtained by bootstrapping or analytically. We propose an analytic statistical framework which, in contrast to conventional methods, allows for validating independently the sensitivity and specificity of a forecasting method. Moreover, our method accounts for the periods during which an event has to remain absent or occur after a respective forecast.

  4. Statistical evaluation of forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mader, Malenka; Mader, Wolfgang; Gluckman, Bruce J.; Timmer, Jens; Schelter, Björn

    2014-08-01

    Reliable forecasts of extreme but rare events, such as earthquakes, financial crashes, and epileptic seizures, would render interventions and precautions possible. Therefore, forecasting methods have been developed which intend to raise an alarm if an extreme event is about to occur. In order to statistically validate the performance of a prediction system, it must be compared to the performance of a random predictor, which raises alarms independent of the events. Such a random predictor can be obtained by bootstrapping or analytically. We propose an analytic statistical framework which, in contrast to conventional methods, allows for validating independently the sensitivity and specificity of a forecasting method. Moreover, our method accounts for the periods during which an event has to remain absent or occur after a respective forecast.

  5. ARRA FEMP Technical Assistance -- Federal Aviation Administration Project 209 -- Control Tower and Support Building, Palm Springs, CA

    SciTech Connect

    Arends, J.; Sandusky, William F.

    2010-03-31

    This report represents findings of a design review team that evaluated construction documents (at the 100% level) and operating specifications for a new control tower and support building that will be built in Palm Springs, California by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The focus of the review was to identify measures that could be incorporated into the final design and operating specifications that would result in additional energy savings for the FAA that would not have otherwise occurred.

  6. Precipitation and temperature ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaake, J.; Demargne, J.; Hartman, R.; Mullusky, M.; Welles, E.; Wu, L.; Herr, H.; Fan, X.; Seo, D. J.

    2007-04-01

    A procedure is presented to construct ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts of precipitation and temperature. This involves dividing the spatial forecast domain and total forecast period into a number of parts that are treated as separate forecast events. The spatial domain is divided into hydrologic sub-basins. The total forecast period is divided into time periods, one for each model time step. For each event archived values of forecasts and corresponding observations are used to model the joint distribution of forecasts and observations. The conditional distribution of observations for a given single-value forecast is used to represent the corresponding probability distribution of events that may occur for that forecast. This conditional forecast distribution subsequently is used to create ensemble members that vary in space and time using the "Schaake Shuffle" (Clark et al, 2004). The resulting ensemble members have the same space-time patterns as historical observations so that space-time joint relationships between events that have a significant effect on hydrological response tend to be preserved. Forecast uncertainty is space and time-scale dependent. For a given lead time to the beginning of the valid period of an event, forecast uncertainty depends on the length of the forecast valid time period and the spatial area to which the forecast applies. Although the "Schaake Shuffle" procedure, when applied to construct ensemble members from a time-series of single value forecasts, may preserve some of this scale dependency, it may not be sufficient without additional constraint. To account more fully for the time-dependent structure of forecast uncertainty, events for additional "aggregate" forecast periods are defined as accumulations of different "base" forecast periods. The generated ensemble members can be ingested by an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction system to produce ensemble forecasts of streamflow and other hydrological variables that reflect

  7. Simultaneous determination of iron and copper in children's sera by FAAS.

    PubMed

    Luterotti, Svjetlana; Kordić, Tončica Vukman; Dodig, Slavica

    2011-03-01

    A new and simple flame atomic-absorption spectrometric (FAAS) method is proposed for simultaneous determination of iron and copper in children's sera. It is based on single-step sample pretreatment (deproteinization with 3 mol L-1 HCl, ratio 1:1) and single-step calibration using 1.5 mol L-1 HCl standard. During method's optimization a short multifactorial design experiment was used. The proposed method assures accuracy, sensitivity and precision comparable to that of the reference methods. The new approach is simple and time-, labour- and serum-saving, the latter being especially important in pediatric diagnostics.

  8. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  9. An overview of health forecasting.

    PubMed

    Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D

    2013-01-01

    Health forecasting is a novel area of forecasting, and a valuable tool for predicting future health events or situations such as demands for health services and healthcare needs. It facilitates preventive medicine and health care intervention strategies, by pre-informing health service providers to take appropriate mitigating actions to minimize risks and manage demand. Health forecasting requires reliable data, information and appropriate analytical tools for the prediction of specific health conditions or situations. There is no single approach to health forecasting, and so various methods have often been adopted to forecast aggregate or specific health conditions. Meanwhile, there are no defined health forecasting horizons (time frames) to match the choices of health forecasting methods/approaches that are often applied. The key principles of health forecasting have not also been adequately described to guide the process. This paper provides a brief introduction and theoretical analysis of health forecasting. It describes the key issues that are important for health forecasting, including: definitions, principles of health forecasting, and the properties of health data, which influence the choices of health forecasting methods. Other matters related to the value of health forecasting, and the general challenges associated with developing and using health forecasting services are discussed. This overview is a stimulus for further discussions on standardizing health forecasting approaches and methods that will facilitate health care and health services delivery.

  10. Earthquake Forecasting, Validation and Verification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, J.; Holliday, J.; Turcotte, D.; Donnellan, A.; Tiampo, K.; Klein, B.

    2009-05-01

    Techniques for earthquake forecasting are in development using both seismicity data mining methods, as well as numerical simulations. The former rely on the development of methods to recognize patterns in data, while the latter rely on the use of dynamical models that attempt to faithfully replicate the actual fault systems. Testing such forecasts is necessary not only to determine forecast quality, but also to improve forecasts. A large number of techniques to validate and verify forecasts have been developed for weather and financial applications. Many of these have been elaborated in public locations, including, for example, the URL as listed below. Typically, the goal is to test for forecast resolution, reliability and sharpness. A good forecast is characterized by consistency, quality and value. Most, if not all of these forecast verification procedures can be readily applied to earthquake forecasts as well. In this talk, we discuss both methods of forecasting, as well as validation and verification using a number of these standard methods. We show how these test methods might be useful for both fault-based forecasting, a group of forecast methods that includes the WGCEP and simulator-based renewal models, and grid-based forecasting, which includes the Relative Intensity, Pattern Informatics, and smoothed seismicity methods. We find that applying these standard methods of forecast verification is straightforward. Judgments about the quality of a given forecast method can often depend on the test applied, as well as on the preconceptions and biases of the persons conducting the tests.

  11. The Federal Aviation Administration/Massachusetts Institute of Technology (FAA/MIT) Lincoln Laboratory Doppler weather radar program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Evans, James E.

    1988-01-01

    The program focuses on providing real-time information on hazardous aviation weather to end users such as air traffic control and pilots. Existing systems will soon be replaced by a Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD), which will be concerned with detecting such hazards as heavy rain and hail, turbulence, low-altitude wind shear, and mesocyclones and tornadoes. Other systems in process are the Central Weather Processor (CWP), and the terminal Doppler weather radar (TDWR). Weather measurements near Memphis are central to ongoing work, especially in the area of microbursts and wind shear.

  12. Administrators: Nursing Home Administrator

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kahl, Anne

    1976-01-01

    Responsibilities, skills needed, training needed, earnings, employment outlook, and sources of additional information are outlined for the administrator who holds the top management job in a nursing home. (JT)

  13. Proceedings: Eleventh forecasting symposium. Forecasting in a competitive electricity market

    SciTech Connect

    Vogt, T.; Ignelzi, P.

    1998-10-01

    EPRI`s Eleventh Forecasting Symposium: ``Forecasting in a Competitive Electricity Market`` was held in Arlington, Virginia, in November 1997. This proceedings documents the symposium`s wide variety of topics, ranging from very-short-term operations issues to mid-term market planning issues. Speakers described the forecasting practices of other industries, predicted forecasting directions in the electric power industry; related their experiences with new forecasting approaches; and suggested further enhancements to forecasting methods, tools, and data. The objectives of the symposium were to explore the expanding roles of forecasting in a competitive market, to exchange information about forecasting techniques under development, and to discuss the forecasting techniques currently used by the electric power industry in and outside the US and in other industries. The 30 papers are arranged under the following topical sections: restructuring and regulatory issues--implications for forecasting; forecasting experiences in other industries; operations-related forecasting; data warehousing and database marketing; forecasting and risk management; understanding and predicting market prices; forecasting methods for the new environment; predicting customer response; and symposium wrap-up.

  14. Determination of Ca, K, Mg and Fe in four fish species by FAAS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cui, Xiaoli; Wang, Yijun; She, Xilin

    2010-09-01

    A method for determining calcium (Ca), potassium (K), magnesium (Mg) and iron (Fe) in four fish species was optimized and validated. It included microwave mineralization of the samples and subsequent quantification by flame atomic absorption spectroscopy (FAAS) with Zeeman-effect background correction. Using HNO3 (65%) and H2O2 (33%) as extraction solutions, the optimal conditions of extraction were established as follows: 0.5 g of sample mass; microwave time program of 300 W/5 min and 600 W/5 min. The method was free of matrix interferences. The linear correlation coefficients were ⩾0.9991, the recovery percentage of analytes was from 99.31% to 103.70% and the RSD (relative standard deviation) was lower than 2.06%. The detection limits obtained were 32.3, 43.2, 14.0 and 68.6 ng mL-1 for Ca, K, Mg and Fe in FAAS respectively. It is shown that the method is rapid, simple, sensitive and accurate. The method was applied to the studies of digestibility and measurement of these nutrients in samples of fish collected from Norway, Japan and China.

  15. On forecasting mortality.

    PubMed

    Olshansky, S J

    1988-01-01

    Official forecasts of mortality made by the U.S. Office of the Actuary throughout this century have consistently underestimated observed mortality declines. This is due, in part, to their reliance on the static extrapolation of past trends, an atheoretical statistical method that pays scant attention to the behavioral, medical, and social factors contributing to mortality change. A "multiple cause-delay model" more realistically portrays the effects on mortality of the presence of more favorable risk factors at the population level. Such revised assumptions produce large increases in forecasts of the size of the elderly population, and have a dramatic impact on related estimates of population morbidity, disability, and health care costs.

  16. Increased Accuracy in Statistical Seasonal Hurricane Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nateghi, R.; Quiring, S. M.; Guikema, S. D.

    2012-12-01

    Hurricanes are among the costliest and most destructive natural hazards in the U.S. Accurate hurricane forecasts are crucial to optimal preparedness and mitigation decisions in the U.S. where 50 percent of the population lives within 50 miles of the coast. We developed a flexible statistical approach to forecast annual number of hurricanes in the Atlantic region during the hurricane season. Our model is based on the method of Random Forest and captures the complex relationship between hurricane activity and climatic conditions through careful variable selection, model testing and validation. We used the National Hurricane Center's Best Track hurricane data from 1949-2011 and sixty-one candidate climate descriptors to develop our model. The model includes information prior to the hurricane season, i.e., from the last three months of the previous year (Oct. through Dec.) and the first five months of the current year (January through May). Our forecast errors are substantially lower than other leading forecasts such as that of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

  17. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  18. Characterizing the Behavior of NOAA's Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, M.; Whitin, B.; Brown, J.; Fickenscher, P.; Henkel, A.; Talanki, S.; Hartman, R.

    2014-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Weather Service (NWS) is implementing the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) across the operating areas of the 13 NWS River Forecast Centers (RFCs). As the implementation progresses, hindcasting and validation is necessary to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the HEFS and to guide its operational use. Particularly in regions such as California that encompass a broad range of elevation, temperature, and precipitation gradients, the quality of the HEFS forecasts will vary geographically, and it is important to understand the degrees and controls on forecast quality in this context. This study aims to develop a comprehensive understanding of the quality of HEFS forecasts in California, with the aim of guiding and enhancing the implementation of the HEFS, as well as informing end-users about the expected quality of the HEFS forecasts. The HEFS was calibrated with temperature and precipitation forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Also, in order to determine forecast skill and to benchmark the HEFS against a simpler forecasting system, the HEFS was calibrated with a conditional ("resampled") climatology. The calibrated HEFS was used to generate retrospective forecasts of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow for a 25-year (1985-2009) period for six basins in the state. The forecast horizon was 1-14 days. The retrospective forecasts were verified conditionally on forecast lead time, magnitude, and season. Preliminary results indicate that HEFS forecasts are much more skillful when forced by inputs from the GEFS, rather than resampled climatology. However, there are noticeable differences in forecast quality among basins. These observations demonstrate the applicability of HEFS in a wide hydroclimatic gradient within California, while highlighting the difficulty in generalizing its behavior across the state.

  19. An overview of the joint FAA/NASA aircraft/ground runway friction program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yager, Thomas J.

    1989-01-01

    There is a need for information on runways which may become slippery due to various forms and types of contaminants. Experience has shown that since the beginning of all weather aircraft operations, there have been landing and aborted takeoff incidents and/or accidents each year where aircraft have either run off the end or veered off the shoulder of low friction runways. NASA Langley's Landing and Impact Dynamics Branch is involved in several research programs directed towards obtaining a better understanding of how different tire properties interact with varying pavement surface characteristics to produce acceptable performance for aircraft ground handling requirements. One such effort, which was jointly supported by not only NASA and the FAA but by several aviation industry groups including the Flight Safety Foundation, is described.

  20. NASA,FAA,ONERA Swept-Wing Icing and Aerodynamics: Summary of Research and Current Status

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Broeren, Andy

    2015-01-01

    NASA, FAA, ONERA, and other partner organizations have embarked on a significant, collaborative research effort to address the technical challenges associated with icing on large scale, three-dimensional swept wings. These are extremely complex phenomena important to the design, certification and safe operation of small and large transport aircraft. There is increasing demand to balance trade-offs in aircraft efficiency, cost and noise that tend to compete directly with allowable performance degradations over an increasing range of icing conditions. Computational fluid dynamics codes have reached a level of maturity that they are being proposed by manufacturers for use in certification of aircraft for flight in icing. However, sufficient high-quality data to evaluate their performance on iced swept wings are not currently available in the public domain and significant knowledge gaps remain.

  1. NASA/FAA Helicopter ATC simulation investigation of RNAV/MLS instrument approaches

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peach, L. L., Jr.; Tobias, L.; Lee, H. Q.

    1982-01-01

    The NASA/FAA Helicopter Air Traffic Control (ATC) simulation investigations to determine the feasibility of simultaneous, independent instrument approach procedures for helicopters at major terminal areas, using Area Navigation/Microwave Landing System (RNAV/MLS) guidance, was conducted at several levels of helicopter display sophistication, up to that of a Cockpit Display of Traffic Information (CDTI) system. Test objectives included the determination of pilot acceptability and the tracking performance of the RNAV/MLS's noninterfering rotorcraft approach path structure, along with the evaluation of the effect on controller workload of multiroute structures combining conventional and rotorcraft approaches at various arrival rates and traffic separations. The utility of electronic area maps and CDTI displays was also investigated. Participating pilots flew 127 simulated instrument approaches in an ATC simulation laboratory.

  2. CSLAA and FAA'S Rules: Incorporating a 'Risk Management Framework' to Minimise Human Space Flight Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaddha, S.

    2012-01-01

    th This year marks the 50 anniversary of a landmark victory for humankind in its endeavour of entering and exploring the final frontier. During these years of space activity, we have witnessed a number of cumulative successes. One of which is the emergence of the commercial human space flight, or "space tourism", market. Commercial companies have the aim of travelling people into space safely and affordably. This paper shall consider the U.S. regulatory framework governing the space tourism market. It scrutinises the adequacy of the Commercial Space Launch and Amendment Act of 2004 (CSLAA), as bolstered by the FAA's requirements, to protect launching passengers to an acceptable standard of safety from the inherent risks associated with human space flights. It is argued that the legislative regime embeds a three-limb "risk management framework" as an appropriate response to address the concern over the safety of public space travel.

  3. NASA-FAA helicopter Microwave Landing System curved path flight test

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Swenson, H. N.; Hamlin, J. R.; Wilson, G. W.

    1983-01-01

    An ongoing series of joint NASA/FAA helicopter Microwave Landing System (MLS) flight tests was conducted at Ames Research Center. This paper deals with tests done from the spring through the fall of 1983. This flight test investigated and developed solutions to the problem of manually flying curved-path and steep glide slope approaches into the terminal area using the MLS and flight director guidance. An MLS-equipped Bell UH-1H helicopter flown by NASA test pilots was used to develop approaches and procedures for flying these approaches. The approaches took the form of Straight-in, U-turn, and S-turn flightpaths with glide slopes of 6 deg, 9 deg, and 12 deg. These procedures were evaluated by 18 pilots from various elements of the helicopter community, flying a total of 221 hooded instrument approaches. Flying these curved path and steep glide slopes was found to be operationally acceptable with flight director guidance using the MLS.

  4. Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) Overview and Results: NASA to FAA Research Transition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Engelland, Shawn; Davis, Tom.

    2013-01-01

    NASA researchers developed the Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) concept to improve the tactical departure scheduling process. The PDRC system is comprised of: 1) a surface automation system that computes ready time predictions and departure runway assignments, 2) an en route scheduling automation tool that uses this information to estimate ascent trajectories to the merge point and computes release times and, 3) an interface that provides two-way communication between the two systems. To minimize technology transfer issues and facilitate its adoption by TMCs and Frontline Managers (FLM), NASA developed the PDRC prototype using the Surface Decision Support System (SDSS) for the Tower surface automation tool, a research version of the FAA TMA (RTMA) for en route automation tool and a digital interface between the two DSTs to facilitate coordination.

  5. Automating test case generation for coverages required by FAA standard DO-178B

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Voas, Jeffrey M.; Payne, Jeffery E.; Miller, Keith W.

    1993-01-01

    Coverage testing techniques are required by the FAA for various levels of subsystem criticality at the unit testing level. Higher levels of criticality require coverage schemes that frequently require more and more test cases, particularly when the number of conditions in a decision grows. For example, if we have a decision with n conditions of the form: if (/ci/ or /c2/ or .... or /cn/) then there are 2(n) possible combinations of condition outcomes. Given the enormous number of inputs that may be required to satisfy different coverages, and given that there are no automated tools for determining these inputs (to our knowledge), we will show how one alternative testing technique, mutation testing, can be coerced into generating inputs that satisfy a code coverage scheme X, i.e., if we modify the rules for mutant generation during mutation testing, this technique will provide test cases that satisfy X.

  6. Forecasting Methods for Institutional Research.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jennings, Linda W.; Young, Dean M.

    1988-01-01

    Increasing demands for accurate forecasts in such areas as student enrollment, energy expenditures, and facility capacity are placing new demands on the institutional researcher. A variety of forecasting models and methods are available, all to be used with caution in long-range forecasting. (Author/MSE)

  7. Corporate Forecasting: Promise and Reality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wheelwright, Steven C.; Clarke, Darral G.

    1976-01-01

    Discusses a survey of forecast preparers and users in 127 major companies in an attempt to assess underlying problems and identify areas for improvement. Concludes that forecasting responsibilities and tasks must be better defined and that forecast preparers and users must become better informed about one another's roles. (Author/JG)

  8. Federal Forecasters Directory, 1995.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Center for Education Statistics (ED), Washington, DC.

    This directory lists employees of the federal government who are involved in forecasting for policy formation and trend prediction purposes. Job title, agency, business address, phone or e-mail number, and specialty areas are listed for each employee. Employees are listed for the following agencies: (1) Bureau of the Census; (2) Bureau of Economic…

  9. American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) FEMP Technical Assistance Federal Aviation Administration Project 209 - Control Tower and Support Building, Las Vegas, NV

    SciTech Connect

    Arends, J.; Sandusky, William F.

    2010-03-31

    This report represents findings of a design review team that evaluated construction documents (at the 70% level) and operating specifications for a new control tower and support building that will be built in Las Vegas, Nevada by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The focus of the review was to identify measures that could be incorporated into the final design and operating specification that would result in additional energy savings for the FAA that would not have otherwise occurred.

  10. American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) FEMP Technical Assistance Federal Aviation Administration – Project 209 Control Tower and Support Building Oakland, CA

    SciTech Connect

    Arends, J.; Sandusky, William F.

    2010-03-01

    This report represents findings of a design review team that evaluated construction documents (at the 70% level) and operating specifications for a new control tower and support building that will be build at Oakland, California by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The focus of the review was to identify measures that could be incorporated into the final design and operating specification that would result in additional energy savings for the FAA that would not have otherwise occurred.

  11. Short-Termed Integrated Forecasting System: 1993 Model documentation report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-05-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth. A low world oil price and high economic growth. A high world oil price and low economic growth. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

  12. 14 CFR 11.35 - Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? 11.35 Section 11.35... RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.35 Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? (a) Sensitive...

  13. 14 CFR 11.35 - Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? 11.35 Section 11.35... RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.35 Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? (a) Sensitive...

  14. 14 CFR 11.35 - Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? 11.35 Section 11.35... RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.35 Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? (a) Sensitive...

  15. 14 CFR 11.35 - Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? 11.35 Section 11.35... RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.35 Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? (a) Sensitive...

  16. 49 CFR 1540.117 - Threat assessments regarding aliens holding or applying for FAA certificates, ratings, or...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 9 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Threat assessments regarding aliens holding or applying for FAA certificates, ratings, or authorizations. 1540.117 Section 1540.117 Transportation Other... Passengers and Other Individuals and Persons § 1540.117 Threat assessments regarding aliens holding...

  17. 41 CFR 102-37.530 - What are FAA's responsibilities in the donation of surplus property to public airports?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... responsibilities in the donation of surplus property to public airports? 102-37.530 Section 102-37.530 Public... MANAGEMENT REGULATION PERSONAL PROPERTY 37-DONATION OF SURPLUS PERSONAL PROPERTY Donations to Public Airports § 102-37.530 What are FAA's responsibilities in the donation of surplus property to public airports?...

  18. 14 CFR 11.35 - Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? 11.35 Section 11.35... RULEMAKING PROCEDURES Rulemaking Procedures General § 11.35 Does FAA include sensitive security information and proprietary information in the Federal Docket Management System (FDMS)? (a) Sensitive...

  19. AVIATION SECURITY: FAA’s Actions to Study Responsibilities and Funding for Airport Security and to Certify Screening Companies

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1999-02-01

    Actions to Study Responsibilities and Funding for Airport Security and to Certify Screening Companies DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A Approved for...local law enforcement support relating to air carrier and airport security measures. The funding of the security operations is divided among FAA, the...generally agreed with the current division of airport security responsibilities. These officials stated that the continuity of screening would be

  20. The Practice of Manpower Forecasting: A Collection of Case Studies. Studies on Education; Vol. 1.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ahamad, Bashir; And Others

    In the 1960's academics, politicians, administrators and industrialists became convinced of the importance of education for economic development. The forecasting of qualified manpower needs was able to turn this new idea into practice. During the decade hundreds of manpower forecasts were made, and innumerable international conferenceses were held…

  1. 14 CFR 11.101 - May I ask FAA to reconsider my petition for rulemaking or petition for exemption if it is denied?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... rulemaking or petition for exemption if it is denied? 11.101 Section 11.101 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL... petition for rulemaking or petition for exemption if it is denied? Yes, you may petition FAA to reconsider... petition, and FAA must receive it within 60 days after we issued the denial. For us to accept your...

  2. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  3. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy.

  4. Forecasting potential crises

    SciTech Connect

    Neufeld, W.P.

    1984-04-01

    Recently, the Trend Analysis Program (TAP) of the American Council of Life Insurance commissioned the Futures Group of Glastonbury, Connecticut, to examine the potential for large-scale catastrophic events in the near future. TAP was specifically concerned with five potential crises: the warming of the earth's atmosphere, the water shortage, the collapse of the physical infrastructure, the global financial crisis, and the threat of nuclear war. We are often unprepared to take action; in these cases, we lose an advantage we might have otherwise had. This is the whole idea behind forecasting: to foresee possibilities and to project how we can respond. If we are able to create forecasts against which we can test policy options and choices, we may have the luxury of adopting policies ahead of events. Rather than simply fighting fires, we have the option of creating a future more to our choosing. Short descriptions of these five potential crises and, in some cases, possible solutions are presented.

  5. Forecasting Infectious Disease Outbreaks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaman, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    Dynamic models of infectious disease systems abound and are used to study the epidemiological characteristics of disease outbreaks, the ecological mechanisms affecting transmission, and the suitability of various control and intervention strategies. The dynamics of disease transmission are non-linear and consequently difficult to forecast. Here, we describe combined model-inference frameworks developed for the prediction of infectious diseases. We show that accurate and reliable predictions of seasonal influenza outbreaks can be made using a mathematical model representing population-level influenza transmission dynamics that has been recursively optimized using ensemble data assimilation techniques and real-time estimates of influenza incidence. Operational real-time forecasts of influenza and other infectious diseases have been and are currently being generated.

  6. Uranium price forecasting methods

    SciTech Connect

    Fuller, D.M.

    1994-03-01

    This article reviews a number of forecasting methods that have been applied to uranium prices and compares their relative strengths and weaknesses. The methods reviewed are: (1) judgemental methods, (2) technical analysis, (3) time-series methods, (4) fundamental analysis, and (5) econometric methods. Historically, none of these methods has performed very well, but a well-thought-out model is still useful as a basis from which to adjust to new circumstances and try again.

  7. Frost Forecasting for Fruitgrowers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martsolf, J. D.; Chen, E.

    1983-01-01

    Progress in forecasting from satellite data reviewed. University study found data from satellites displayed in color and used to predict frost are valuable aid to agriculture. Study evaluated scheme to use Earth-temperature data from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite in computer model that determines when and where freezing temperatures endanger developing fruit crops, such as apples, peaches and cherries in spring and citrus crops in winter.

  8. Satellite freeze forecast system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martsolf, J. D. (Principal Investigator)

    1983-01-01

    Provisions for back-up operations for the satellite freeze forecast system are discussed including software and hardware maintenance and DS/1000-1V linkage; troubleshooting; and digitized radar usage. The documentation developed; dissemination of data products via television and the IFAS computer network; data base management; predictive models; the installation of and progress towards the operational status of key stations; and digital data acquisition are also considered. The d addition of dew point temperature into the P-model is outlined.

  9. Land-Breeze Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Wheeler, Mark M.; Merceret, Francis J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The nocturnal land breeze at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) is both operationally significant and challenging to forecast. The occurrence and timing of land breezes impact low-level winds, atmospheric stability, low temperatures, and fog development. Accurate predictions of the land breeze are critical for toxic material dispersion forecasts associated with space launch missions, since wind direction and low-level stability can change noticeably with the onset of a land breeze. This report presents a seven-year observational study of land breezes over east-central Florida from 1995 to 2001. This comprehensive analysis was enabled by the high-resolution tower observations over KSC/CCAFS. Five-minute observations of winds, temperature, and moisture along with 9 15-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler data were used to analyze specific land-breeze cases, while the tower data were used to construct a composite climatology. Utilities derived from this climatology were developed to assist forecasters in determining the land-breeze occurrence, timing, and movement based on predicted meteorological conditions.

  10. 14 CFR 406.165 - Argument before the administrative law judge.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Argument before the administrative law judge. 406.165 Section 406.165 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION... Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation Adjudications § 406.165 Argument before the...

  11. 14 CFR 406.165 - Argument before the administrative law judge.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Argument before the administrative law judge. 406.165 Section 406.165 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION... Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation Adjudications § 406.165 Argument before the...

  12. 14 CFR 406.165 - Argument before the administrative law judge.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Argument before the administrative law judge. 406.165 Section 406.165 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION... Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation Adjudications § 406.165 Argument before the...

  13. 14 CFR 406.165 - Argument before the administrative law judge.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Argument before the administrative law judge. 406.165 Section 406.165 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION... Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation Adjudications § 406.165 Argument before the...

  14. 14 CFR 406.165 - Argument before the administrative law judge.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Argument before the administrative law judge. 406.165 Section 406.165 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION... Rules of Practice in FAA Space Transportation Adjudications § 406.165 Argument before the...

  15. AN OPERATIONAL EVALUATION OF THE ETA - CMAQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in partnership with the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), are developing an operational, nationwide Air Quality Forecasting (AQF) system. An experimental phase of this program, which couples NOAA's Et...

  16. A Performance Evaluation of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability for the Summer of 2007

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper provides a performance evaluation of the real-time, CONUS-scale National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC), developed collaboratively by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), that supported, in part,...

  17. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    PubMed Central

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and Objectives With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States’ pharmaceutical budgets. This model took into account population ageing, as well as current and future country-specific pricing, reimbursement, and market access policies (the project was performed for the European Commission; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). Method In order to have a representative heterogeneity of EU Member States, the following countries were selected for the analysis: France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. A forecasting period of 5 years (2012–2016) was chosen to assess the net pharmaceutical budget impact. A model for generics and biosimilars was developed for each country. The model estimated a separate and combined effect of the direct and indirect impacts of the patent cliff. A second model, estimating the sales development and the risk of development failure, was developed for new drugs. New drugs were reviewed individually to assess their clinical potential and translate it into commercial potential. The forecast was carried out according to three perspectives (healthcare public payer, society, and manufacturer), and several types of distribution chains (retail, hospital, and combined retail and hospital). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. Results According to the model, all countries experienced drug budget reductions except Poland (+€41 million). Savings were expected to be the highest in the United Kingdom (−€9,367 million), France

  18. NASA/FAA flight-test investigation of helicopter microwave landing system approaches

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peach, I. L., Jr.; Bull, J. S.; Anderson, D. J.; Dugan, D. C.; Ross, V. L.; Hunting, A. W.; Pate, D. P.; Savage, J. C.

    1980-01-01

    The helicopter Microwave Landing System flight-test investigations, conducted by a joint NASA/FAA effort in order to gather statistical data for establishing terminal instrument procedures criteria, and to provide a performance data base for developing advanced MLS guidance concepts, are presented. The specific flight-test objectives were to: (1) develop acceptable angle-only MLS approach profiles; (2) determine tracking errors; (3) determine altitude loss during missed approach; (4) evaluate guidance display sensitivities; and (5) evaluate pilot acceptability. Fourteen pilots flew 140 manual (without stability augmentation) dual-pilot simulated instrument approaches in a UH-1H helicopter. The flight profiles flown included 3-, 6-, and 9-degree glideslope, centerline approaches to decision heights of 50, 100, and 150 ft, respectively. The angular guidance display sensitivities and the data acquisition system are also described. Eight major conclusions are made, and include the following: (1) the use of pitch attitude to control airspeed and collective to control glideslope was the preferred pilot technique for the steep glideslope approaches, and (2) angular guidance deviation indicator sensitivity requirements for helicopter MLS approaches to STOLports and heliports have been found to be significantly different from standard ILS sensitivities.

  19. Simplified multi-element analysis of ground and instant coffees by ICP-OES and FAAS.

    PubMed

    Szymczycha-Madeja, Anna; Welna, Maja; Pohl, Pawel

    2015-01-01

    A simplified alternative to the wet digestion sample preparation procedure for roasted ground and instant coffees has been developed and validated for the determination of different elements by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES) (Al, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sr, Zn) and flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS) (Ca, Fe, K, Mg, Na). The proposed procedure, i.e. the ultrasound-assisted solubilisation in aqua regia, is quite fast and simple, requires minimal use of reagents, and demonstrated good analytical performance, i.e. accuracy from -4.7% to 1.9%, precision within 0.5-8.6% and recovery in the range 93.5-103%. Detection limits of elements were from 0.086 ng ml(-1) (Sr) to 40 ng ml(-1) (Fe). A preliminary classification of 18 samples of ground and instant coffees was successfully made based on concentrations of selected elements and using principal component analysis and hierarchic cluster analysis.

  20. [Determination of eight metal elements in Cichorium glandulosum Boiss et Huet by microwave digestion-FAAS].

    PubMed

    Pei, Ling-Peng; Zhou, Xiao-Ying; Cui, Jian; Pang, Zong-Ran; Liu, Hong-Bing; Ge, Liang

    2009-12-01

    The Cichorium glandulosum Boiss et Huet is a traditional Uighur natural herbal medicine, but has not been analyzed and studied in terms of its metal elements. In the experiment, the Cichorium glandulosum Boiss et Huet powder was digested with HNO3 by microwave digestion before determination. The eight metal elements, potassium, nickel, calcium, magnesium, iron, manganese, copper and zinc, in Cichorium glandulosum Boiss et Huet were determined by FAAS. The working conditions, accuracy and precision of the method were studied. The linear correlations of standard curves are good (r = 0.999 1-0.999 9). The recovery (n = 6) is 92.25%-110.5%, and the RSD (n = 6) is 0.7%-3.88%. The results showed that there were comparatively rich metal elements, among which are comparatively high calcium (65.84 mg x g(-1)), iron (24.38 mg x g(-1)), magnesium (278.17 mg x g(-1)) and potassium (18.50 mg x g(-1)), in Cichorium glandulosum Boiss et Huet, and the contents of other elements are nickel of 0.004 38 mg x g(-1), manganese of 0.52 mg x g(-1), copper of 0.016 5 mg x g(-1) and zinc of 0.18 mg x g(-1). This provided useful data for discussing the relationship between the content of the metal elements in Cichorium glandulosum Boiss et Huet and its clinical application in cardiovascular and osteoporosis disease.

  1. Summary of the industry/NASA/FAA workshop on philosophy of automation: Promises and realities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Norman, Susan D.

    1990-01-01

    Issues of flight deck automation are multi-faceted and complex. The rapid introduction of advanced computer based technology on to the flight deck of transport category aircraft has had considerable impact on both aircraft operations and the flight crew. As part of NASA's responsibility to facilitate an active exchange of ideas and information between members of the aviation community, an Industry/NASA/FAA workshop was conducted in August 1988. One of the most important conclusions to emerge from the workshop was that the introduction of automation has clearly benefited aviation and has substantially improved the operational safety and efficiency of our air transport system. For example, one carrier stated that they have been flying the Boeing 767 (one of the first aircraft to employ substantial automation) since 1982, and they have never had an accident or incident resulting in damage to the aircraft. Notwithstanding its benefits, many issues associated with the design, certification, and operation of automated aircraft were identified. For example two key conceptual issues were the need for the crew to have a thorough understanding of the system and the importance of defining the pilot's role. With respect to certification, a fundamental issue is the lack of comprehensive human factors requirements in the current regulations. Operational considerations, which have been a factor in incidents involving automation, were also cited. Viewgraphs used in the presentation are given.

  2. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  3. Local flood forecasting - From data collection to communicating forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, P. J.; Beven, K.

    2013-12-01

    An important aspect of improving resilience to flooding is the provision of timely warnings to flood sensitive locations thus allowing mitigating measures to be implemented. For specific locations such small communities (often in head water catchments) or river side factories the ability of traditional centralised forecasting systems to provide timely & accurate forecasts may be challenged. This is due in part to the finite resources of monitoring agencies which results in courser spatial scales of model and data collection then may be required for the generation of accurate forecasts. One strategy to improve flood resilience at such locations is to develop automated location specific forecasts. In this presentation we outline a methodology to achieve this based on the installation of adequate telemetered monitoring equipment; generally a water level sensor and a rain gauge. This allows the construction of a local flood forecasting model which may be coupled with available precipitation forecasts. The construction of the hydrological forecasting model consists of a guided process which incorporates both data assimilation and the representation of the forecast uncertainty based on post processing. The guided process requires the modeller to make only a few choices thus allowing rapid model deployment and revision. To be of use the derived forecasts must be made available in real time and updated frequently; maybe every five minutes. Traditional practices in issuing warnings dependent on expert interpretation must therefore be altered so that those at the site of interest become their own `experts'. To aid this appropriate presentation of both the predictions and past performance of the model, designed to encourage realistic interpretation of the forecasts and their uncertainties is considered. The resulting forecast chain is demonstrated on UK case studies.

  4. Hydrologic Forecasting and Hydropower Production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wigmosta, M. S.; Voisin, N.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Coleman, A.; Mishra, V.; Schaner, N. A.

    2011-12-01

    Hydroelectric power production is one of many competing demands for available water along with other priority uses such as irrigation, thermoelectric cooling, municipal, recreation, and environmental performance. Increasingly, hydroelectric generation is being used to offset the intermittent nature of some renewable energy sources such as wind-generated power. An accurate forecast of the magnitude and timing of water supply assists managers in integrated planning and operations to balance competing water uses against current and future supply while protecting against the possibility of water or energy shortages and excesses with real-time actions. We present a medium-range to seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasting system where uncertainty in forecasts is addressed explicitly. The integrated forecast system makes use of remotely-sensed data and automated spatial and temporal data assimilation. Remotely-sensed snow cover, observed snow water equivalent, and observed streamflow data are used to update the hydrologic model state prior to the forecast. In forecast mode, the hydrology model is forced by calibrated ensemble weather/climate forecasts. This system will be fully integrated into a water optimization toolset to inform reservoir and power operations, and guide environmental performance decision making. This flow forecast system development is carried out in agreement with the National Weather Service so that the system can later be incorporated into the NOAA eXperimental Ensemble Forecast Service (XEFS).

  5. Forecasting droughts in East Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mwangi, E.; Wetterhall, F.; Dutra, E.; Di Giuseppe, F.; Pappenberger, F.

    2014-02-01

    The humanitarian crises caused by the recent droughts (2008-2009 and 2010-2011) in East Africa have illustrated that the ability to make accurate drought forecasts with sufficient lead time is essential. The use of dynamical model precipitation forecasts in combination with drought indices, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), can potentially lead to a better description of drought duration, magnitude and spatial extent. This study evaluates the use of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) products in forecasting droughts in East Africa. ECMWF seasonal precipitation shows significant skill for March-May and October-December rain seasons when evaluated against measurements from the available in situ stations from East Africa. The forecast for October-December rain season has higher skill than for the March-May season. ECMWF forecasts add value to the consensus forecasts produced during the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF), which is the present operational product for precipitation forecast over East Africa. Complementing the original ECMWF precipitation forecasts with SPI provides additional information on the spatial extent and intensity of the drought event.

  6. Solar Indices Forecasting Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henney, Carl John; Shurkin, Kathleen; Arge, Charles; Hill, Frank

    2016-05-01

    Progress to forecast key space weather parameters using SIFT (Solar Indices Forecasting Tool) with the ADAPT (Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport) model is highlighted in this presentation. Using a magnetic flux transport model, ADAPT, we estimate the solar near-side field distribution that is used as input into empirical models for predicting F10.7(solar 10.7 cm, 2.8 GHz, radio flux), the Mg II core-to-wing ratio, and selected bands of solar far ultraviolet (FUV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance. Input to the ADAPT model includes the inferred photospheric magnetic field from the NISP ground-based instruments, GONG & VSM. Besides a status update regarding ADAPT and SIFT models, we will summarize the findings that: 1) the sum of the absolute value of strong magnetic fields, associated with sunspots, is shown to correlate well with the observed daily F10.7 variability (Henney et al. 2012); and 2) the sum of the absolute value of weak magnetic fields, associated with plage regions, is shown to correlate well with EUV and FUV irradiance variability (Henney et al. 2015). This work utilizes data produced collaboratively between Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) and the National Solar Observatory (NSO). The ADAPT model development is supported by AFRL. The input data utilized by ADAPT is obtained by NISP (NSO Integrated Synoptic Program). NSO is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy (AURA), Inc., under a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation (NSF). The 10.7 cm solar radio flux data service, utilized by the ADAPT/SIFT F10.7 forecasting model, is operated by the National Research Council of Canada and National Resources Canada, with the support of the Canadian Space Agency.

  7. Discovering the Regulatory Considerations of the Federal Aviation Administration: Interviewing the Aviation Rulemaking Advisory Committee

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lu, Chien-tsung

    2005-01-01

    Maintenance Resource Management (MRM) training for aviation mechanics has become mandatory in many industrialized countries since 1998. Yet, to date, MRM training remains optional in the U.S. Interestingly, a similar safety discipline, namely Crew/Cockpit Resource Management (CRM), is mandatory for pilots, flight engineers, flight attendants, and dispatchers and is regulated in the Federal Aviation Administration s (FAA) Federal Aviation Regulations (FARs). If MRM training is important to enhance aviation technicians working behavior, the rationale to not regulate it opens a window for study. This research aims to inductively investigate the FAA s regulatory rationale concerning MRM training based on direct inputs from the FAA s Aviation Rulemaking Advisory Committee (ARAC) members. Delphi methodology associated with purposive sampling technique was adopted. The result revealed that the FAA cannot regulate MRM because the aviation industry is strongly opposed to it due to the lack of training budgets, the need of a quantifiable cost-effect analysis, concern over the FAA s inspection workforce, an ongoing voluntary alternative called the Air Transportation Surveillance System (ATOS), the government s lower priority on maintenance after 9/11, and the airlines tight embracement of operational flexibility without regulation.

  8. Weather Forecasting Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    Weather forecasters are usually very precise in reporting such conditions as temperature, wind velocity and humidity. They also provide exact information on barometric pressure at a given moment, and whether the barometer is "rising" or "falling"- but not how rapidly or how slowly it is rising or falling. Until now, there has not been available an instrument which measures precisely the current rate of change of barometric pressure. A meteorological instrument called a barograph traces the historical ups and downs of barometric pressure and plots a rising or falling curve, but, updated every three hours, it is only momentarily accurate at each updating.

  9. Operational Geomagnetic Forecast Service

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semeniv, O.; Polonska, A.; Parnowski, A.

    2014-12-01

    The operational forecasting service for real-time geomagnetic indices Dst and Kp was described. The warning time for the Earth to the intersection of the Dst index is 1-4 hours, for the Kp index - 3 hours. The skillscore parameter, which is defined as a decrease of the relative mean square error with respect to the trivial model, was approximately 40% for Dst and 15% for Kp. The service works on-line freely available through STAFF http://www.staff.oma.be/ browser.

  10. Handbook of Forecasting Techniques

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1975-12-01

    SOCIAL POLICYISTANFORD RESEARCH INSTITUTE POLICY RESEARCH, ,R6156T 10 SRI Project VMO-U3738 ~: .. ~ BURNHAM H. DODGE DAVID C. MILLER PETER SCHWARTZ...G.IKruzic, David C.IMillvr DACW 31l75-C-RM7 ~0 IltLATI~ililON NliikAilMMIE AOADORD S0I 0N( LMETPET TASKC Center for the Study of Social Policy A R, I I...methods suitable for a wide range of technological, economic, social , and environmetntal forecasting are selected and discussed. Procedures for using each

  11. Forecasting in Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Complex nonlinear systems are typically characterized by many degrees of freedom, as well as interactions between the elements. Interesting examples can be found in the areas of earthquakes and finance. In these two systems, fat tails play an important role in the statistical dynamics. For earthquake systems, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency is applicable, whereas for daily returns for the securities in the financial markets are known to be characterized by leptokurtotic statistics in which the tails are power law. Very large fluctuations are present in both systems. In earthquake systems, one has the example of great earthquakes such as the M9.1, March 11, 2011 Tohoku event. In financial systems, one has the example of the market crash of October 19, 1987. Both were largely unexpected events that severely impacted the earth and financial systems systemically. Other examples include the M9.3 Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, and the Great Recession which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 12, 2013. Forecasting the occurrence of these damaging events has great societal importance. In recent years, national funding agencies in a variety of countries have emphasized the importance of societal relevance in research, and in particular, the goal of improved forecasting technology. Previous work has shown that both earthquakes and financial crashes can be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model. These metastable systems are characterized by fat tail statistics near the classical spinodal. Correlations in these systems can grow and recede, but do not imply causation, a common source of misunderstanding. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In this talk, we describe the basic phenomenology of these systems and emphasize their similarities and differences. We also consider the problem of forecast validation and verification

  12. Forecast Mekong: 2011 update

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Turnipseed, D. Phil

    2011-01-01

    In 2009, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton joined with the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam in launching the Lower Mekong Initiative to enhance U.S. engagement with the Lower Mekong countries in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. Part of the Lower Mekong Initiative, the U.S. Geological Survey's Forecast Mekong project is engaging the United States in scientific research relevant to environmental issues in the Lower Mekong River countries and is staying the course in support of the Mekong Nations with a suite of new projects for 2011.

  13. Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

    1993-01-01

    The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

  14. Determination of zinc in edible oils by flow injection FAAS after extraction induced by emulsion breaking procedure.

    PubMed

    Bakircioglu, Dilek; Topraksever, Nukte; Kurtulus, Yasemin Bakircioglu

    2014-05-15

    A new procedure using extraction induced by emulsion breaking (EIEB) procedure has been developed for extraction/preconcentration of zinc in various edible oils (canola oil, corn oil, hazelnut oil, olive oil, and sunflower oil) prior to its determination by the single line flow injection (FI) flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS). Several parameters affecting the extraction efficiency of the procedure were investigated including the type and concentrations of surfactant, the concentration of HNO3, and the other operational conditions (emulsion breaking time and temperature). The limits of detection of 1.1 and 1.0 μg L(-1) were observed for zinc when aqueous standard and oil-based standards were added to the emulsions for calibration, respectively. The proposed procedure of combining EIEB and single line FI-FAAS can be regarded as a new procedure for the determination of zinc in edible oil samples.

  15. Ensemble forecasting for a hydrological testbed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jankov, Isidora; Albers, Steve; Wharton, Linda; Tollerud, Ed; Yuan, Huiling; Toth, Zoltan

    2010-05-01

    Significant precipitation events in California during the winter season are often caused by land-falling "atmospheric rivers" associated with extratropical cyclones from the Pacific Ocean. Atmospheric rivers are narrow, elongated plumes of enhanced water vapor transport over the Pacific and Atlantic oceans that can extend from the tropics and subtropics into the extratropics. Large values of integrated water vapor are advected within the warm sector of extratropical cyclones immediately ahead of polar cold fronts, although the source of these vapor plumes can originate in the tropics beyond the cyclone warm sector. When an atmospheric river makes a landfall on the coast of California, the northwest to southeast orientation of the Sierra Mountain chain exerts orographic forcing on the southwesterly low-level flow in the warm sector of approaching extratropical cyclones. As a result, sustained precipitation is typically enhanced and modified by the complex terrain. This has major hydrological consequences. The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has established the Hydrometeorological Testbed (HMT) to design and support a series of field and numerical modeling experiments to better understand and forecast precipitation in the Central Valley. The main role of the Forecast Application Branch (NOAA/ESRL/GSD) in HMT has been in supporting the real time numerical forecasts as well as research activities targeting better understanding and improvement of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF). For this purpose ensemble modeling system has been developed. The ensemble system consists of mixed dynamic cores, mixed physics and mixed lateral boundary conditions. Performance evaluation results for this system will be presented at the conference.

  16. FAA Air Traffic Control Operations Concepts. Volume 3. ISSS (Initial Sector Suite System) En Route Controllers. Change 1

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-07-29

    series of ope-rations concepts for the FAA’s Advanced Automation System (AAS). It describes how en route controllers in Air Route Traffic Control Center...facilities may perform their operational jobs in the Initial Stector Suite System (ISSS) enviroinment- ISSS functionality is assumed to be as described...in the AAS System Level Specification, 28 August 1987. Included here are: Composition Graphs, showing the logizal flow of operational tasks performed

  17. [Determination of trace elements of Gentiana macrophlla and Gentiana straminea by microwave digestion-FAAS].

    PubMed

    Zhou, Yu-Shan; Zhang, Xi-Ling; Wang, Rong-Bin; Xia, Qi; An, Xia

    2008-05-01

    An acid-assisted microwave digestion procedure is optimized for the determination of trace elements in traditional Chinese medicine by the use of flame atomic absorption spectrometric (FAAS) techniques. Microwave-assisted digestion has the advantages of reduced time for sample dissolution, fewer possibilities for technical errors caused by spilling of hot digestion solutions, use of less chemicals, and lower losses of volatile metals. In addition, modern microwave ovens are safer and simpler and provide more controlled and reproducible conditions than hot plate or block digesters. Flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS) is more commonly applied techniques in the de termination of trace elements. The accurate measurement of trace elements concentrations in samples of traditional Chinese medicine is an important goal in research for medical effects of traditional Chinese medicine. The purpose of this study was to determine the contents of the trace elements in Gentiana macrophlla and Gentiana straminea. In order to identify the accuracy of the procedure, the operating conditions was selected before the determination of trace elements. In order to gauge the effectiveness of digestion, the selection of digestion conditions of the technique was undertaken. The results showed HNO3-H2O2 (5 : 1) as a microwave digestion agent with suitable temperature and time was optimum choice in the digestion procedure. Analysis limits were also selected according to the low detection limits and the good precision. They were Fe(248.3 nm), Mn (279.5 nm), Ni (232.0 nm), Cu(324. 8 nm), Zn (2.139 nm), Ca (422.7 nm), Mg (285.2 nm) and Cr (357.9 nm), respectively. The working curves were obtained by using multi-elemental standard solutions and line relation was good. Under the selected conditions, the contents of trace elements Fe, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, Ca, Mg and Cr in Gentiana macrophlla and Gentiana straminea were directly determined using working curve methods. The relative standard

  18. Administrative Synergy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hewitt, Kimberly Kappler; Weckstein, Daniel K.

    2012-01-01

    One of the biggest obstacles to overcome in creating and sustaining an administrative professional learning community (PLC) is time. Administrators are constantly deluged by the tyranny of the urgent. It is a Herculean task to carve out time for PLCs, but it is imperative to do so. In this article, the authors describe how an administrative PLC…

  19. Verification of Meteorological and Oceanographic Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. Navy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klotz, S.; Hansen, J.; Pauley, P.; Sestak, M.; Wittmann, P.; Skupniewicz, C.; Nelson, G.

    2013-12-01

    The Navy Ensemble Forecast Verification System (NEFVS) has been promoted recently to operational status at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). NEFVS processes FNMOC and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological and ocean wave ensemble forecasts, gridded forecast analyses, and innovation (observational) data output by FNMOC's data assimilation system. The NEFVS framework consists of statistical analysis routines, a variety of pre- and post-processing scripts to manage data and plot verification metrics, and a master script to control application workflow. NEFVS computes metrics that include forecast bias, mean-squared error, conditional error, conditional rank probability score, and Brier score. The system also generates reliability and Receiver Operating Characteristic diagrams. In this presentation we describe the operational framework of NEFVS and show examples of verification products computed from ensemble forecasts, meteorological observations, and forecast analyses. The construction and deployment of NEFVS addresses important operational and scientific requirements within Navy Meteorology and Oceanography. These include computational capabilities for assessing the reliability and accuracy of meteorological and ocean wave forecasts in an operational environment, for quantifying effects of changes and potential improvements to the Navy's forecast models, and for comparing the skill of forecasts from different forecast systems. NEFVS also supports the Navy's collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, NCEP, and Environment Canada in the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) project and with the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) program. This program is tasked with eliminating unnecessary duplication within the three agencies, accelerating the transition of new technology, such as multi

  20. Verification of Meteorological and Oceanographic Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. Navy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klotz, S. P.; Hansen, J.; Pauley, P.; Sestak, M.; Wittmann, P.; Skupniewicz, C.; Nelson, G.

    2012-12-01

    The Navy Ensemble Forecast Verification System (NEFVS) has been promoted recently to operational status at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). NEFVS processes FNMOC and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological and ocean wave ensemble forecasts, gridded forecast analyses, and innovation (observational) data output by FNMOC's data assimilation system. The NEFVS framework consists of statistical analysis routines, a variety of pre- and post-processing scripts to manage data and plot verification metrics, and a master script to control application workflow. NEFVS computes metrics that include forecast bias, mean-squared error, conditional error, conditional rank probability score, and Brier score. The system also generates reliability and Receiver Operating Characteristic diagrams. In this presentation we describe the operational framework of NEFVS and show examples of verification products computed from ensemble forecasts, meteorological observations, and forecast analyses. The construction and deployment of NEFVS addresses important operational and scientific requirements within Navy Meteorology and Oceanography (METOC). These include computational capabilities for assessing the reliability and accuracy of meteorological and ocean wave forecasts in an operational environment, for quantifying effects of changes and potential improvements to the Navy's forecast models, and for comparing the skill of forecasts from different forecast systems. NEFVS also supports the Navy's collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, NCEP, and Environment Canada in the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) project and with the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) program. This program is tasked with eliminating unnecessary duplication within the three agencies, accelerating the transition of new technology, such as

  1. Biomimetic FAA-certifiable, artificial muscle structures for commercial aircraft wings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barrett, Ronald M.; Barrett, Cassandra M.

    2014-07-01

    This paper is centered on a new form of adaptive material which functions much in the same way as skeletal muscle tissue, is structurally modeled on plant actuator cells and capable of rapidly expanding or shrinking by as much as an order of magnitude in prescribed directions. Rapid changes of plant cell shape and sizes are often initiated via ion-transport driven fluid migration and resulting turgor pressure variation. Certain plant cellular structures like those in Mimosa pudica (sensitive plant), Albizia julibrissin (Mimosa tree), or Dionaea muscipula (Venus Flytrap) all exhibit actuation physiology which employs such turgor pressure manipulation. The paper begins with dynamic micrographs of a sectioned basal articulation joint from A. julibrissin. These figures show large cellular dimensional changes as the structure undergoes foliage articulation. By mimicking such structures in aircraft flight control mechanisms, extremely lightweight pneumatic control surface actuators can be designed. This paper shows several fundamental layouts of such surfaces with actuator elements made exclusively from FAA-certifiable materials, summarizes their structural mechanics and shows actuator power and energy densities that are higher than nearly all classes of conventional adaptive materials available today. A sample flap structure is shown to possess the ability to change its shape and structural stiffness as its cell pressures are manipulated, which in turn changes the surface lift-curve slope when exposed to airflows. Because the structural stiffness can be altered, it is also shown that the commanded section lift-curve slope can be similarly controlled between 1.2 and 6.2 rad-1. Several aircraft weight reduction principles are also shown to come into play as the need to concentrate loads to pass through point actuators is eliminated. The paper concludes with a summary of interrelated performance and airframe-level improvements including enhanced gust rejection, load

  2. Social Indicators and Social Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnston, Denis F.

    The paper identifies major types of social indicators and explains how they can be used in social forecasting. Social indicators are defined as statistical measures relating to major areas of social concern and/or individual well being. Examples of social indicators are projections, forecasts, outlook statements, time-series statistics, and…

  3. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  4. The pioneers of weather forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballard, Susan

    2016-01-01

    In The Weather Experiment author Peter Moore takes us on a compelling journey through the early history of weather forecasting, bringing to life the personalities, lives and achievements of the men who put in place the building blocks required for forecasts to be possible.

  5. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  6. Statistical Earthquake Focal Mechanism Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    The new whole Earth focal mechanism forecast, based on the GCMT catalog, has been created. In the present forecast, the sum of normalized seismic moment tensors within 1000 km radius is calculated and the P- and T-axes for the focal mechanism are evaluated on the basis of the sum. Simultaneously we calculate an average rotation angle between the forecasted mechanism and all the surrounding mechanisms. This average angle shows tectonic complexity of a region and indicates the accuracy of the prediction. The method was originally proposed by Kagan and Jackson (1994, JGR). Recent interest by CSEP and GEM has motivated some improvements, particularly to extend the previous forecast to polar and near-polar regions. The major problem in extending the forecast is the focal mechanism calculation on a spherical surface. In the previous forecast as our average focal mechanism was computed, it was assumed that longitude lines are approximately parallel within 1000 km radius. This is largely accurate in the equatorial and near-equatorial areas. However, when one approaches the 75 degree latitude, the longitude lines are no longer parallel: the bearing (azimuthal) difference at points separated by 1000 km reach about 35 degrees. In most situations a forecast point where we calculate an average focal mechanism is surrounded by earthquakes, so a bias should not be strong due to the difference effect cancellation. But if we move into polar regions, the bearing difference could approach 180 degrees. In a modified program focal mechanisms have been projected on a plane tangent to a sphere at a forecast point. New longitude axes which are parallel in the tangent plane are corrected for the bearing difference. A comparison with the old 75S-75N forecast shows that in equatorial regions the forecasted focal mechanisms are almost the same, and the difference in the forecasted focal mechanisms rotation angle is close to zero. However, though the forecasted focal mechanisms are similar

  7. Weather Forecasting Systems and Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mecikalski, John (Inventor); MacKenzie, Wayne M., Jr. (Inventor); Walker, John Robert (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    A weather forecasting system has weather forecasting logic that receives raw image data from a satellite. The raw image data has values indicative of light and radiance data from the Earth as measured by the satellite, and the weather forecasting logic processes such data to identify cumulus clouds within the satellite images. For each identified cumulus cloud, the weather forecasting logic applies interest field tests to determine a score indicating the likelihood of the cumulus cloud forming precipitation and/or lightning in the future within a certain time period. Based on such scores, the weather forecasting logic predicts in which geographic regions the identified cumulus clouds will produce precipitation and/or lighting within during the time period. Such predictions may then be used to provide a weather map thereby providing users with a graphical illustration of the areas predicted to be affected by precipitation within the time period.

  8. Rapid and sensitive ultrasonic-assisted derivatisation microextraction (UDME) technique for bitter taste-free amino acids (FAA) study by HPLC-FLD.

    PubMed

    Chen, Guang; Li, Jun; Sun, Zhiwei; Zhang, Shijuan; Li, Guoliang; Song, Cuihua; Suo, Yourui; You, Jinmao

    2014-01-15

    Amino acids, as the main contributors to taste, are usually found in relatively high levels in bitter foods. In this work, we focused on seeking a rapid, sensitive and simple method to determine FAA for large batches of micro-samples and to explore the relationship between FAA and bitterness. Overall condition optimisation indicated that the new UDME technique offered higher derivatisation yields and extraction efficiencies than traditional methods. Only 35min was needed in the whole operation process. Very low LLOQ (Lower limit of quantification: 0.21-5.43nmol/L) for FAA in twelve bitter foods was obtained, with which BTT (bitter taste thresholds) and CABT (content of FAA at BTT level) were newly determined. The ratio of CABT to BTT increased with decreasing of BTT. This work provided powerful potential for the high-throughput trace analysis of micro-sample and also a methodology to study the relationship between the chemical constituents and the taste.

  9. Forecasting global atmospheric CO2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agustí-Panareda, A.; Massart, S.; Chevallier, F.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Beljaars, A.; Ciais, P.; Deutscher, N. M.; Engelen, R.; Jones, L.; Kivi, R.; Paris, J.-D.; Peuch, V.-H.; Sherlock, V.; Vermeulen, A. T.; Wennberg, P. O.; Wunch, D.

    2014-11-01

    A new global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) real-time forecast is now available as part of the pre-operational Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate - Interim Implementation (MACC-II) service using the infrastructure of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). One of the strengths of the CO2 forecasting system is that the land surface, including vegetation CO2 fluxes, is modelled online within the IFS. Other CO2 fluxes are prescribed from inventories and from off-line statistical and physical models. The CO2 forecast also benefits from the transport modelling from a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) system initialized daily with a wealth of meteorological observations. This paper describes the capability of the forecast in modelling the variability of CO2 on different temporal and spatial scales compared to observations. The modulation of the amplitude of the CO2 diurnal cycle by near-surface winds and boundary layer height is generally well represented in the forecast. The CO2 forecast also has high skill in simulating day-to-day synoptic variability. In the atmospheric boundary layer, this skill is significantly enhanced by modelling the day-to-day variability of the CO2 fluxes from vegetation compared to using equivalent monthly mean fluxes with a diurnal cycle. However, biases in the modelled CO2 fluxes also lead to accumulating errors in the CO2 forecast. These biases vary with season with an underestimation of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle both for the CO2 fluxes compared to total optimized fluxes and the atmospheric CO2 compared to observations. The largest biases in the atmospheric CO2 forecast are found in spring, corresponding to the onset of the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. In the future, the forecast will be re-initialized regularly with atmospheric CO2 analyses based on the assimilation of CO2 products retrieved from satellite measurements and

  10. Forecasting global atmospheric CO2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agustí-Panareda, A.; Massart, S.; Chevallier, F.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Beljaars, A.; Ciais, P.; Deutscher, N. M.; Engelen, R.; Jones, L.; Kivi, R.; Paris, J.-D.; Peuch, V.-H.; Sherlock, V.; Vermeulen, A. T.; Wennberg, P. O.; Wunch, D.

    2014-05-01

    A new global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) real-time forecast is now available as part of the pre-operational Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate - Interim Implementation (MACC-II) service using the infrastructure of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). One of the strengths of the CO2 forecasting system is that the land surface, including vegetation CO2 fluxes, is modelled online within the IFS. Other CO2 fluxes are prescribed from inventories and from off-line statistical and physical models. The CO2 forecast also benefits from the transport modelling from a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) system initialized daily with a wealth of meteorological observations. This paper describes the capability of the forecast in modelling the variability of CO2 on different temporal and spatial scales compared to observations. The modulation of the amplitude of the CO2 diurnal cycle by near-surface winds and boundary layer height is generally well represented in the forecast. The CO2 forecast also has high skill in simulating day-to-day synoptic variability. In the atmospheric boundary layer, this skill is significantly enhanced by modelling the day-to-day variability of the CO2 fluxes from vegetation compared to using equivalent monthly mean fluxes with a diurnal cycle. However, biases in the modelled CO2 fluxes also lead to accumulating errors in the CO2 forecast. These biases vary with season with an underestimation of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle both for the CO2 fluxes compared to total optimized fluxes and the atmospheric CO2 compared to observations. The largest biases in the atmospheric CO2 forecast are found in spring, corresponding to the onset of the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. In the future, the forecast will be re-initialized regularly with atmospheric CO2 analyses based on the assimilation of CO2 satellite retrievals, as they become available in

  11. GALE improves snow forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scientific results from an intensive study of winter storms on the U.S. East Coast last year contributed to improved weather forecasts of two successive snowstorms that virtually closed down Washington, D.C., for several days in January 1987.In the Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment (GALE) field project, scientists took detailed measurements simultaneously from the atmosphere and the ocean to study how these features interact at various stages of an East Coast winter storm, according to project director Richard Dirks, who is with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo. “It's interesting that we actually had four storms [in the GALE study] that were of similar intensity to the two East Coast storms” in January 1987, Dirks said. “However, last year the temperatures were warmer, and the storm tracks were located somewhat further offshore and therefore did not significantly affect the northeast corridor with heavy snows.”

  12. Tropical forecasting - Predictability perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shukla, J.

    1989-01-01

    Results are presented of classical predictability studies and forecast experiments with observed initial conditions to show the nature of initial error growth and final error equilibration for the tropics and midlatitudes, separately. It is found that the theoretical upper limit of tropical circulation predictability is far less than for midlatitudes. The error growth for a complete general circulation model is compared to a dry version of the same model in which there is no prognostic equation for moisture, and diabatic heat sources are prescribed. It is found that the growth rate of synoptic-scale errors for the dry model is significantly smaller than for the moist model, suggesting that the interactions between dynamics and moist processes are among the important causes of atmospheric flow predictability degradation. Results are then presented of numerical experiments showing that correct specification of the slowly varying boundary condition of SST produces significant improvement in the prediction of time-averaged circulation and rainfall over the tropics.

  13. A Scenario Generation Method for Wind Power Ramp Events Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Cui, Ming-Jian; Ke, De-Ping; Sun, Yuan-Zhang; Gan, Di; Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2015-07-03

    Wind power ramp events (WPREs) have received increasing attention in recent years due to their significant impact on the reliability of power grid operations. In this paper, a novel WPRE forecasting method is proposed which is able to estimate the probability distributions of three important properties of the WPREs. To do so, a neural network (NN) is first proposed to model the wind power generation (WPG) as a stochastic process so that a number of scenarios of the future WPG can be generated (or predicted). Each possible scenario of the future WPG generated in this manner contains the ramping information, and the distributions of the designated WPRE properties can be stochastically derived based on the possible scenarios. Actual data from a wind power plant in the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) was selected for testing the proposed ramp forecasting method. Results showed that the proposed method effectively forecasted the probability of ramp events.

  14. Forecasting Higher Education's Future.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boyken, Don; Buck, Tina S.; Kollie, Ellen; Przyborowski, Danielle; Rondinelli, Joseph A.; Hunter, Jeff; Hanna, Jeff

    2003-01-01

    Offers predictions on trends in higher education to accommodate changing needs, lower budgets, and increased enrollment. They involve campus construction, security, administration, technology, interior design, athletics, and transportation. (EV)

  15. Forecasting droughts in East Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mwangi, Emmah; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Dutra, Emanuel; Di Giuseppe, Francesca; Pappenberger, Florian

    2014-05-01

    The humanitarian crisis caused by the recent droughts (2008-2009 and 2010-2011) in East Africa have illustrated that the ability to make accurate drought predictions with sufficient lead time is essential. The use of dynamical model forecasts in combination with drought indices, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), can potentially to lead to a better description of drought duration, magnitude and spatial extent. This study evaluates the use of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) products in forecasting droughts in East Africa. ECMWF seasonal precipitation shows significant skill for both rain seasons when evaluated against measurements from the available in-situ stations from East Africa. The forecast for October-December rain season has higher skill than for the March-May season. ECMWF forecasts add value to the statistical forecasts produced during the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forums (GHACOF), which is the present operational product. Complementing the raw precipitation forecasts with SPI provides additional information on the spatial extent and intensity of the drought event.

  16. 77 FR 55829 - Western Area Power Administration; Grapevine Canyon Wind Project Record of Decision (DOE/EIS-0427)

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-09-11

    ... would generate up to 500 megawatts of electricity from wind turbine generators (WTGs). The proposed... wind park and transmission tie-line facilities. To implement the RPMs, an Avian and Bat Protection Plan... lights on wind turbine generators per Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) requirements. Per a RPM...

  17. Time series modelling and forecasting of emergency department overcrowding.

    PubMed

    Kadri, Farid; Harrou, Fouzi; Chaabane, Sondès; Tahon, Christian

    2014-09-01

    Efficient management of patient flow (demand) in emergency departments (EDs) has become an urgent issue for many hospital administrations. Today, more and more attention is being paid to hospital management systems to optimally manage patient flow and to improve management strategies, efficiency and safety in such establishments. To this end, EDs require significant human and material resources, but unfortunately these are limited. Within such a framework, the ability to accurately forecast demand in emergency departments has considerable implications for hospitals to improve resource allocation and strategic planning. The aim of this study was to develop models for forecasting daily attendances at the hospital emergency department in Lille, France. The study demonstrates how time-series analysis can be used to forecast, at least in the short term, demand for emergency services in a hospital emergency department. The forecasts were based on daily patient attendances at the paediatric emergency department in Lille regional hospital centre, France, from January 2012 to December 2012. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method was applied separately to each of the two GEMSA categories and total patient attendances. Time-series analysis was shown to provide a useful, readily available tool for forecasting emergency department demand.

  18. Application of quantitative precipitation forecasting and precipitation ensemble prediction for hydrological forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, P.; Tie-Yuan, S.; Zhi-Yuan, Y.; Jun-Chao, W.

    2015-05-01

    The precipitation in the forecast period influences flood forecasting precision, due to the uncertainty of the input to the hydrological model. Taking the ZhangHe basin as the example, the research adopts the precipitation forecast and ensemble precipitation forecast product of the AREM model, uses the Xin Anjiang hydrological model, and tests the flood forecasts. The results show that the flood forecast result can be clearly improved when considering precipitation during the forecast period. Hydrological forecast based on Ensemble Precipitation prediction gives better hydrological forecast information, better satisfying the need for risk information for flood prevention and disaster reduction, and has broad development opportunities.

  19. Administrative Ecology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGarity, Augustus C., III; Maulding, Wanda

    2007-01-01

    This article discusses how all four facets of administrative ecology help dispel the claims about the "impossibility" of the superintendency. These are personal ecology, professional ecology, organizational ecology, and community ecology. Using today's superintendency as an administrative platform, current literature describes a preponderance of…

  20. Assessing the Potential of the AIRS Retrieved Surface Temperature for 6-Hour Average Temperature Forecast in River Forecast Centers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ding, F.; Theobald, M.; Vollmer, B.; Savtchenko, A. K.; Hearty, T. J.; Esfandiari, A. E.

    2012-12-01

    Producing timely and accurate water forecast and information is the mission of National Weather Service River Forecast Centers (NWS RFCs) of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The river forecast system in RFCs requires average surface temperature in the fixed 6-hour period 000-0600, 0600-1200, 1200-1800, and 1200-0000 UTC. The current logic of RFC temperature forecast relies on ingest of point values of daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperature. Meanwhile, the mean temperature for the 6-hour period is estimated from a weighted average of daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperature. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) in the first high spectral resolution infrared sounder on board the Aqua satellite which was launched in May 2002 and follows a Sun-synchronous polar orbit. It is aimed to produce high resolution atmospheric profile and surface atmospheric parameters. As Aqua crosses the equator at about 1330 and 0130 local time, the AIRS retrieved surface temperature may represent daytime maximum and nighttime minimum value. Comparing to point observation from surface weather stations which are often sparse over the less-populated area and are unevenly distributed, satellite may obtain better area averaged observation. This test study assesses the potential of using AIRS retrieved surface temperature to forecast 6-hour average temperature for NWS RFCs. The California Nevada RFC is selected due to the poor coverage of surface observation in the mountainous region and spring snow melting. The study focuses on the March to May spring season when water from snowpack melting often plays important role in flood. AIRS retrieved temperature and surface weather station data set will be used to derive statistical weighting coefficient for 6-hour average temperature forecast. The resulting forecast biases and errors will be the main indicators of the potential usage. All study results will be presented in the meeting.

  1. A Method for Forecasting the Commercial Air Traffic Schedule in the Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Long, Dou; Lee, David; Gaier, Eric; Johnson, Jesse; Kostiuk, Peter

    1999-01-01

    This report presents an integrated set of models that forecasts air carriers' future operations when delays due to limited terminal-area capacity are considered. This report models the industry as a whole, avoiding unnecessary details of competition among the carriers. To develop the schedule outputs, we first present a model to forecast the unconstrained flight schedules in the future, based on the assumption of rational behavior of the carriers. Then we develop a method to modify the unconstrained schedules, accounting for effects of congestion due to limited NAS capacities. Our underlying assumption is that carriers will modify their operations to keep mean delays within certain limits. We estimate values for those limits from changes in planned block times reflected in the OAG. Our method for modifying schedules takes many means of reducing the delays into considerations, albeit some of them indirectly. The direct actions include depeaking, operating in off-hours, and reducing hub airports'operations. Indirect actions include using secondary airports, using larger aircraft, and selecting new hub airports, which, we assume, have already been modeled in the FAA's TAF. Users of our suite of models can substitute an alternative forecast for the TAF.

  2. Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning: Summary report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keitz, J. F.

    1982-01-01

    The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This summary report discusses the results of each of the four major tasks of the study. Task 1 compared airline flight plans based on operational forecasts to plans based on the verifying analyses and found that average fuel savings of 1.2 to 2.5 percent are possible with improved forecasts. Task 2 consisted of similar comparisons but used a model developed for the FAA by SRI International that simulated the impact of ATc diversions on the flight plans. While parts of Task 2 confirm the Task I findings, inconsistency with other data and the known impact of ATC suggests that other Task 2 findings are the result of errors in the model. Task 3 compares segment weather data from operational flight plans with the weather actually observed by the aircraft and finds the average error could result in fuel burn penalties (or savings) of up to 3.6 percent for the average 8747 flight. In Task 4 an in-depth analysis of the weather forecast for the 33 days included in the study finds that significant errors exist on 15 days. Wind speeds in the area of maximum winds are underestimated by 20 to 50 kts., a finding confirmed in the other three tasks.

  3. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  4. Method Forecasts Global Energy Substitution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chemical and Engineering News, 1975

    1975-01-01

    Describes a model developed to forecast energy demands and determine trends in demand for primary fuels. The energy model essentially considers primary energy sources as competing commodities in a market. (MLH)

  5. Forecast of solar cycle 25

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krasotkin, Serge; Shmorgilov, Feodor

    The revised method of equal phase averaging was used to predict the main features of the solar cycle 25. The forecast of Wolf number values was obtained not only for solar cycle maximum but for 16 phases of the cycle. The double-peak structure of the cycle maximum phase is well seen. The problems of the long- and superlong-term forecasts of solar activity are discussed.

  6. Preparing for an Uncertain Forecast

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karolak, Eric

    2011-01-01

    Navigating the world of government relations and public policy can be a little like predicting the weather. One can't always be sure what's in store or how it will affect him/her down the road. But there are common patterns and a few basic steps that can help one best prepare for a change in the forecast. Though the forecast is uncertain, early…

  7. Forecasting Thermosphere Density: an Overview

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruinsma, S.

    2015-12-01

    Our knowledge of the thermosphere has improved considerably since 2000 thanks to the availability of high-resolution accelerometer inferred densities. Consequently, precision and shortcomings of thermosphere models are better known. Thermosphere density forecast accuracy is limited by: 1) the accuracy of the thermosphere model 2) the solar and geomagnetic activity forecast 3) the quality of the data assimilation system. The precision of semi-empirical thermosphere models is 10-25%. Solar activity forecasts can be accurate up to 5 days. They become less accurate with time, but some proxies are more forecastable than others. Geomagnetic activity forecasting is more problematic, since in most cases storm events cannot be predicted on any time scale. The forecast accuracy is ultimately bounded by the thermosphere model precision and the (varying) degree to which mainly the solar proxy represents EUV heating of the atmosphere. Both errors can be corrected for by means of near real time (nrt) assimilation of satellite drag data, provided that the data is of high quality. At present, only the classified High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model of the Air Force has that capability operationally, even if other prototype nrt models have been developed. Data assimilation significantly improves density forecasts up to 72-hours out; there is no gain for longer periods due to the short memory of the thermosphere system. Only physical models, e.g. TIMEGCM and CTIPe, can in principle reproduce the dynamic changes in density for example during geomagnetic storms. However, accurate information on atmospheric heating is often missing, or not used. When it is, observed and modeled Traveling Atmospheric Disturbances are very similar. Nonmigrating tides and waves propagating from the lower atmosphere cause longitudinal density variations; sources of geophysical noise for semi-empirical models, they can be predicted qualitatively and sometimes quantitatively with physical models. This

  8. Survey of air cargo forecasting techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuhlthan, A. R.; Vermuri, R. S.

    1978-01-01

    Forecasting techniques currently in use in estimating or predicting the demand for air cargo in various markets are discussed with emphasis on the fundamentals of the different forecasting approaches. References to specific studies are cited when appropriate. The effectiveness of current methods is evaluated and several prospects for future activities or approaches are suggested. Appendices contain summary type analyses of about 50 specific publications on forecasting, and selected bibliographies on air cargo forecasting, air passenger demand forecasting, and general demand and modalsplit modeling.

  9. Final Results from A Pilot Project to Investigate Wake Vortex Patterns and Weather Patterns at the Atlantic City Airport by the Richard Stockton College of NJ and the FAA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trout, Joseph; Manson, J. Russell; King, David; Decicco, Nicolas; Prince, Alyssa; di Mercurio, Alexis; Rios, Manual

    2017-01-01

    Wake Vortex Turbulence is the turbulence generated by an aircraft in flight. This turbulence is created by vortices at the tips of the wing that may decay slowly and persist for several minutes after creation. These vortices and turbulence are hazardous to other aircraft in the vicinity. The strength, formation and lifetime of the turbulence and vortices are effected by many things including the weather. Here we present the final results of the pilot project to investigation of low level wind fields generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and an analysis of historical data. The findings from the historical data and the data simulations were used as inputs for the computational fluid dynamics model (OpenFoam) to show that the vortices could be simulated using OpenFoam. Presented here are the updated results from a research grant, ``A Pilot Project to Investigate Wake Vortex Patterns and Weather Patterns at the Atlantic City Airport by the Stockton University and the FAA''.

  10. Municipal water consumption forecast accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fullerton, Thomas M.; Molina, Angel L.

    2010-06-01

    Municipal water consumption planning is an active area of research because of infrastructure construction and maintenance costs, supply constraints, and water quality assurance. In spite of that, relatively few water forecast accuracy assessments have been completed to date, although some internal documentation may exist as part of the proprietary "grey literature." This study utilizes a data set of previously published municipal consumption forecasts to partially fill that gap in the empirical water economics literature. Previously published municipal water econometric forecasts for three public utilities are examined for predictive accuracy against two random walk benchmarks commonly used in regional analyses. Descriptive metrics used to quantify forecast accuracy include root-mean-square error and Theil inequality statistics. Formal statistical assessments are completed using four-pronged error differential regression F tests. Similar to studies for other metropolitan econometric forecasts in areas with similar demographic and labor market characteristics, model predictive performances for the municipal water aggregates in this effort are mixed for each of the municipalities included in the sample. Given the competitiveness of the benchmarks, analysts should employ care when utilizing econometric forecasts of municipal water consumption for planning purposes, comparing them to recent historical observations and trends to insure reliability. Comparative results using data from other markets, including regions facing differing labor and demographic conditions, would also be helpful.

  11. Forecasting droughts in East Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mwangi, E.; Wetterhall, F.; Dutra, E.; Di Giuseppe, F.; Pappenberger, F.

    2013-08-01

    The humanitarian crisis caused by the recent droughts (2008-2009 and 2010-2011) in the East African region have illustrated that the ability to make accurate drought predictions with adequate lead time is essential. The use of dynamical model forecasts and drought indices, such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), promises to lead to a better description of drought duration, magnitude and spatial extent. This study evaluates the use of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) products in forecasting droughts in East Africa. ECMWF seasonal precipitation shows significant skill for both rain seasons when evaluated against measurements from the available in-situ stations from East Africa. The October-December rain season has higher skill that the March-May season. ECMWF forecasts add value to the statistical forecasts produced during the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forums (GHACOF) which is the present operational product. Complementing the raw precipitation forecasts with SPI provides additional information on the spatial extend and intensity of the drought event.

  12. Practical Meteor Stream Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooke, William J.; Suggs, Robert M.

    2003-01-01

    Inspired by the recent Leonid meteor storms, researchers have made great strides in our ability to predict enhanced meteor activity. However, the necessary calibration of the meteor stream models with Earth-based ZHRs (Zenith Hourly Rates) has placed emphasis on the terran observer and meteor activity predictions are published in such a manner to reflect this emphasis. As a consequence, many predictions are often unusable by the satellite community, which has the most at stake and the greatest interest in meteor forecasting. This paper suggests that stream modelers need to pay more attention to the needs of this community and publish not just durations and times of maxima for Earth, but everything needed to characterize the meteor stream in and out of the plane of the ecliptic, which, at a minimum, consists of the location of maximum stream density (ZHR) and the functional form of the density decay with distance from this point. It is also suggested that some of the terminology associated with meteor showers may need to be more strictly defined in order to eliminate the perception of crying wolf by meteor scientists. An outburst is especially problematic, as it usually denotes an enhancement by a factor of 2 or more to researchers, but conveys the notion of a sky filled with meteors to satellite operators and the public. Experience has also taught that predicted ZHRs often lead to public disappointment, as these values vastly overestimate what is seen.

  13. Integration of structural health monitoring solutions onto commercial aircraft via the Federal Aviation Administration structural health monitoring research program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swindell, Paul; Doyle, Jon; Roach, Dennis

    2017-02-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) started a research program in structural health monitoring (SHM) in 2011. The program's goal was to understand the technical gaps of implementing SHM on commercial aircraft and the potential effects on FAA regulations and guidance. The program evolved into a demonstration program consisting of a team from Sandia National Labs Airworthiness Assurance NDI Center (AANC), the Boeing Corporation, Delta Air Lines, Structural Monitoring Systems (SMS), Anodyne Electronics Manufacturing Corp (AEM) and the FAA. This paper will discuss the program from the selection of the inspection problem, the SHM system (Comparative Vacuum Monitoring-CVM) that was selected as the inspection solution and the testing completed to provide sufficient data to gain the first approved use of an SHM system for routine maintenance on commercial US aircraft.

  14. 14 CFR Appendix B to Part 187 - Fees for FAA Services for Certain Flights

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... either directly owned by the United States or allocated to the United States by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) or by other countries. This is further defined, for this section only, as... Appendix B to Part 187 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF...

  15. Human Factors at the FAA Technical Center: Bibliography 1958-1994.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-12-01

    Rosenberg, B. L. (1967). An inexpensive random-noise generator. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior , 10, 373-374. Atlantic City, NJ...purpose timer. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior , 10, 383-385. Atlantic City, NJ: Federal Aviation Administration Technical Center. 198

  16. Data mining methods for parameters forecasting of a small solar plant

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muntean, Maria; Tulbure, Adrian; Rotar, Corina

    2016-12-01

    This paper investigates the relation between the intensity of solar radiation correlated with ambient temperature and energy production, at local scale and area, using a forecasting algorithm. In the first step, using the experimental collected data, the authors have developed a suitable model to study the analyzed phenomena. The model can be applied for forecasts in the energy sector, very useful especially because UAT (territorial administrative unit) of Alba Iulia has a 275kW functional photovoltaic park.

  17. Satellite freeze forecast system. Operating/troubleshooting manual

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martsolf, J. D. (Principal Investigator)

    1983-01-01

    Examples of operational procedures are given to assist users of the satellites freeze forecasting system (SFFS) in logging in on to the computer, executing the programs in the menu, logging off the computer, and setting up the automatic system. Directions are also given for displaying, acquiring, and listing satellite maps; for communicating via terminal and monitor displays; and for what to do when the SFFS doesn't work. Administrative procedures are included.

  18. Statistical earthquake focal mechanism forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D.

    2014-04-01

    Forecasts of the focal mechanisms of future shallow (depth 0-70 km) earthquakes are important for seismic hazard estimates and Coulomb stress, and other models of earthquake occurrence. Here we report on a high-resolution global forecast of earthquake rate density as a function of location, magnitude and focal mechanism. In previous publications we reported forecasts of 0.5° spatial resolution, covering the latitude range from -75° to +75°, based on the Global Central Moment Tensor earthquake catalogue. In the new forecasts we have improved the spatial resolution to 0.1° and the latitude range from pole to pole. Our focal mechanism estimates require distance-weighted combinations of observed focal mechanisms within 1000 km of each gridpoint. Simultaneously, we calculate an average rotation angle between the forecasted mechanism and all the surrounding mechanisms, using the method of Kagan & Jackson proposed in 1994. This average angle reveals the level of tectonic complexity of a region and indicates the accuracy of the prediction. The procedure becomes problematical where longitude lines are not approximately parallel, and where shallow earthquakes are so sparse that an adequate sample spans very large distances. North or south of 75°, the azimuths of points 1000 km away may vary by about 35°. We solved this problem by calculating focal mechanisms on a plane tangent to the Earth's surface at each forecast point, correcting for the rotation of the longitude lines at the locations of earthquakes included in the averaging. The corrections are negligible between -30° and +30° latitude, but outside that band uncorrected rotations can be significantly off. Improved forecasts at 0.5° and 0.1° resolution are posted at http://eq.ess.ucla.edu/kagan/glob_gcmt_index.html.

  19. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    DOE PAGES

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; ...

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value ofmore » adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.« less

  20. Shootout-89, A Comparative Evaluation of Knowledge-based Systems That Forecast Severe Weather.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moninger, W. R.; Lusk, C.; Roberts, W. F.; Bullas, J.; de Lorenzis, B.; McLeod, J. C.; Ellison, E.; Flueck, J.; Lampru, P. D.; Young, K. C.; Weaver, J.; Philips, R. S.; Shaw, R.; Stewart, T. R.; Zubrick, S. M.

    1991-09-01

    During the summer of 1989, the Forecast Systems Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sponsored an evaluation of artificial-intelligence-based systems that forecast severe convective storms. The evaluation experiment, called Shootout-89, took place in Boulder, Colorado, and focused on storms over the northeastern Colorado foothills and plains.Six systems participated in Shootout-89: three traditional expert systems, a hybrid system including a linear model augmented by a small expert system, an analogue-based system, and a system developed using methods from the cognitive science/judgment analysis tradition.Each day of the exercise, the systems generated 2-9-h forecasts of the probabilities of occurrence of nonsignificant weather, significant weather, and severe weather in each of tour regions in northeastern Colorado. A verification coordinator working at the Denver Weather Service Forecast Office gathered ground-truth data from a network of observers.The systems were evaluated on several measures of forecast skill, on timeliness, on ease of learning, and on ease of use. They were generally easy to operate; however, they required substantially different levels of meteorological expertise on the part of their users, reflecting the various operational environments for which they had been designed. The systems varied in their statistical behavior, but on this difficult forecast problem, they generally showed a skill approximately equal to that of persistence forecasts and climatological forecasts.

  1. Spectral Analysis of Forecast Error Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prive, N. C.; Errico, Ronald M.

    2015-01-01

    The spectra of analysis and forecast error are examined using the observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASAGMAO). A global numerical weather prediction model, the Global Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation, is cycled for two months with once-daily forecasts to 336 hours to generate a control case. Verification of forecast errors using the Nature Run as truth is compared with verification of forecast errors using self-analysis; significant underestimation of forecast errors is seen using self-analysis verification for up to 48 hours. Likewise, self analysis verification significantly overestimates the error growth rates of the early forecast, as well as mischaracterizing the spatial scales at which the strongest growth occurs. The Nature Run-verified error variances exhibit a complicated progression of growth, particularly for low wave number errors. In a second experiment, cycling of the model and data assimilation over the same period is repeated, but using synthetic observations with different explicitly added observation errors having the same error variances as the control experiment, thus creating a different realization of the control. The forecast errors of the two experiments become more correlated during the early forecast period, with correlations increasing for up to 72 hours before beginning to decrease.

  2. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    SciTech Connect

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Finley, Catherine; Nakafuji, Dora; Peterson, Jack L.; Maggio, David; Marquis, Melinda

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value of adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.

  3. Verification of Ensemble Forecasts for the New York City Operations Support Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Day, G.; Schaake, J. C.; Thiemann, M.; Draijer, S.; Wang, L.

    2012-12-01

    forecasts is needed to verify that the post-processed forecasts are unbiased, statistically reliable, and preserve the skill inherent in the "raw" NWS ensemble forecasts. A verification procedure and set of metrics will be presented that provide an objective assessment of ensemble forecasts. The procedure will be applied to both raw ensemble hindcasts and to post-processed ensemble hindcasts. The verification metrics will be used to validate proper functioning of the post-processor and to provide a benchmark for comparison of different types of forecasts. For example, current NWS ensemble forecasts are based on climatology, using each historical year to generate a forecast trace. The NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) under development will utilize output from both the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Climate Forecast System (CFS). Incorporating short-term meteorological forecasts and longer-term climate forecast information should provide sharper, more accurate forecasts. Hindcasts from HEFS will enable New York City to generate verification results to validate the new forecasts and further fine-tune system operating rules. Project verification results will be presented for different watersheds across a range of seasons, lead times, and flow levels to assess the quality of the current ensemble forecasts.

  4. Looking at the big scale - Global Flood Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burek, P.; Alfieri, L.; Thielen-del Pozo, J.; Muraro, D.; Pappenberger, F.; Krzeminsk, B.

    2012-04-01

    Reacting to the increasing need for better preparedness to worldwide hydrological extremes, the Joint Research Centre has joined forces with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), to couple state-of-the art weather forecasts with a hydrological model on global scale. On a pre-operationally basis a fully hydro-meteorological flood forecasting model is running since July 2011 and producing daily probabilistic discharge forecast with worldwide coverage and forecast horizon of about 1 month. An important aspect of this global system is that it is set-up on continental scale and therefore independent of administrative and political boundaries - providing downstream countries with information on upstream river conditions as well as continental and global overviews. The prototype of a Global Flood Alert System consists of HTESSEL land surface scheme coupled with LISFLOOD hydrodynamic model for the flow routing in the river network. Both hydrological models are set up on global coverage with horizontal grid resolution of 0.1° and daily time step for input and output data. To estimate corresponding discharge warning thresholds for selected return periods, the coupled HTESSEL-LISFLOOD hydrological model is driven with ERA-Interim input meteorological data for a 21 year period from 1989 onward. For daily forecasts the ensemble stream flow predictions are run by feeding Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System (VarEPS) weather forecasts into the coupled model. VarEPS consist of 51-member ensemble global forecasts for 15 days. The hydrological simulations are computed for a 45-day time horizon, to account the routing of flood waves through large river basins with time of concentration of the order of one month. Both results, the discharge thresholds from the long term run and the multiple hydrographs of the daily ensemble stream flow prediction are joined together to produce probabilistic information of critical threshold exceedance. Probabilistic

  5. Automation of energy demand forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siddique, Sanzad

    Automation of energy demand forecasting saves time and effort by searching automatically for an appropriate model in a candidate model space without manual intervention. This thesis introduces a search-based approach that improves the performance of the model searching process for econometrics models. Further improvements in the accuracy of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models. This thesis introduces machine learning techniques that are capable of modeling such nonlinearity. Algorithms for learning domain knowledge from time series data using the machine learning methods are also presented. The novel search based approach and the machine learning models are tested with synthetic data as well as with natural gas and electricity demand signals. Experimental results show that the model searching technique is capable of finding an appropriate forecasting model. Further experimental results demonstrate an improved forecasting accuracy achieved by using the novel machine learning techniques introduced in this thesis. This thesis presents an analysis of how the machine learning techniques learn domain knowledge. The learned domain knowledge is used to improve the forecast accuracy.

  6. Advances in Solar Power Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haupt, S. E.; Kosovic, B.; Drobot, S.

    2014-12-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research and partners are building a blended SunCast Solar Power Forecasting system. This system includes several short-range nowcasting models and improves upon longer range numerical weather prediction (NWP) models as part of the "Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting." The nowcasting models being built include statistical learning models that include cloud regime prediction, multiple sky imager-based advection models, satellite image-based advection models, and rapid update NWP models with cloud assimilation. The team has also integrated new modules into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to better predict clouds, aerosols, and irradiance. The modules include a new shallow convection scheme; upgraded physics parameterizations of clouds; new radiative transfer modules that specify GHI, DNI, and DIF prediction; better satellite assimilation methods; and new aerosol estimation methods. These new physical models are incorporated into WRF-Solar, which is then integrated with publically available NWP models via the Dynamic Integrated Forecast (DICast) system as well as the Nowcast Blender to provide seamless forecasts at partner utility and balancing authority commercial solar farms. The improvements will be described and results to date discussed.

  7. Communicating Storm Surge Forecast Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troutman, J. A.; Rhome, J.

    2015-12-01

    When it comes to tropical cyclones, storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property along the coastal United States. The coastal population density has dramatically increased over the past 20 years, putting more people at risk. Informing emergency managers, decision-makers and the public about the potential for wind driven storm surge, however, has been extremely difficult. Recently, the Storm Surge Unit at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has developed a prototype experimental storm surge watch/warning graphic to help communicate this threat more effectively by identifying areas most at risk for life-threatening storm surge. This prototype is the initial step in the transition toward a NWS storm surge watch/warning system and highlights the inundation levels that have a 10% chance of being exceeded. The guidance for this product is the Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge (P-Surge) model, which predicts the probability of various storm surge heights by statistically evaluating numerous SLOSH model simulations. Questions remain, however, if exceedance values in addition to the 10% may be of equal importance to forecasters. P-Surge data from 2014 Hurricane Arthur is used to ascertain the practicality of incorporating other exceedance data into storm surge forecasts. Extracting forecast uncertainty information through analyzing P-surge exceedances overlaid with track and wind intensity forecasts proves to be beneficial for forecasters and decision support.

  8. Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza

    PubMed Central

    Shaman, Jeffrey; Karspeck, Alicia

    2012-01-01

    Influenza recurs seasonally in temperate regions of the world; however, our ability to predict the timing, duration, and magnitude of local seasonal outbreaks of influenza remains limited. Here we develop a framework for initializing real-time forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks, using a data assimilation technique commonly applied in numerical weather prediction. The availability of real-time, web-based estimates of local influenza infection rates makes this type of quantitative forecasting possible. Retrospective ensemble forecasts are generated on a weekly basis following assimilation of these web-based estimates for the 2003–2008 influenza seasons in New York City. The findings indicate that real-time skillful predictions of peak timing can be made more than 7 wk in advance of the actual peak. In addition, confidence in those predictions can be inferred from the spread of the forecast ensemble. This work represents an initial step in the development of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal influenza. PMID:23184969

  9. Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza.

    PubMed

    Shaman, Jeffrey; Karspeck, Alicia

    2012-12-11

    Influenza recurs seasonally in temperate regions of the world; however, our ability to predict the timing, duration, and magnitude of local seasonal outbreaks of influenza remains limited. Here we develop a framework for initializing real-time forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks, using a data assimilation technique commonly applied in numerical weather prediction. The availability of real-time, web-based estimates of local influenza infection rates makes this type of quantitative forecasting possible. Retrospective ensemble forecasts are generated on a weekly basis following assimilation of these web-based estimates for the 2003-2008 influenza seasons in New York City. The findings indicate that real-time skillful predictions of peak timing can be made more than 7 wk in advance of the actual peak. In addition, confidence in those predictions can be inferred from the spread of the forecast ensemble. This work represents an initial step in the development of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal influenza.

  10. Results from FAA program to validate bonded composite doublers for commercial aviation use

    SciTech Connect

    Roach, D.P.

    1997-09-01

    The number of commercial airframes exceeding twenty years of service continues to grow. In addition, Service Life Extension Programs are attempting to extend the {open_quotes}economic{close_quotes} service life of commercial airframes to thirty years. The use of bonded composites may offer the airframe manufacturers and aircraft maintenance facilities a cost effective method to extend the lives of their aircraft. The Federal Aviation Administration Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) to validate the use of bonded composite doublers on commercial aircraft.

  11. FAA Helicopter/Heliport Research, Engineering, and Development Bibiliography, 1964-1986.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1986-11-01

    well as a means to determine -.. the effects of aircraft weight and altitude on the H-V diagram. Analysis disclosed that H-V diagrams can be developed...This investigation included current aircraft needs as well as facilities that might be required for icing research, development and certification...within the Federal Avi.ation Administration JAA), those in industry, and those in state arnd local qoverom6nts. 2. SCOPE. ln selecting documents to be

  12. Smooth Sailing for Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Through a cooperative venture with NASA's Stennis Space Center, WorldWinds, Inc., developed a unique weather and wave vector map using space-based radar satellite information and traditional weather observations. Called WorldWinds, the product provides accurate, near real-time, high-resolution weather forecasts. It was developed for commercial and scientific users. In addition to weather forecasting, the product's applications include maritime and terrestrial transportation, aviation operations, precision farming, offshore oil and gas operations, and coastal hazard response support. Target commercial markets include the operational maritime and aviation communities, oil and gas providers, and recreational yachting interests. Science applications include global long-term prediction and climate change, land-cover and land-use change, and natural hazard issues. Commercial airlines have expressed interest in the product, as it can provide forecasts over remote areas. WorldWinds, Inc., is currently providing its product to commercial weather outlets.

  13. Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R.

    1995-05-01

    This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

  14. Engineering Administration.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Naval Personnel Program Support Activity, Washington, DC.

    This book is intended to acquaint naval engineering officers with their duties in the engineering department. Standard shipboard organizations are analyzed in connection with personnel assignments, division operations, and watch systems. Detailed descriptions are included for the administration of directives, ship's bills, damage control, training…

  15. Administrative IT

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grayson, Katherine, Ed.

    2006-01-01

    When it comes to Administrative IT solutions and processes, best practices range across the spectrum. Enterprise resource planning (ERP), student information systems (SIS), and tech support are prominent and continuing areas of focus. But widespread change can also be accomplished via the implementation of campuswide document imaging and sharing,…

  16. Database Administrator

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moore, Pam

    2010-01-01

    The Internet and electronic commerce (e-commerce) generate lots of data. Data must be stored, organized, and managed. Database administrators, or DBAs, work with database software to find ways to do this. They identify user needs, set up computer databases, and test systems. They ensure that systems perform as they should and add people to the…

  17. GEM: Statistical weather forecasting procedure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, R. G.

    1983-01-01

    The objective of the Generalized Exponential Markov (GEM) Program was to develop a weather forecast guidance system that would: predict between 0 to 6 hours all elements in the airways observations; respond instantly to the latest observed conditions of the surface weather; process these observations at local sites on minicomputing equipment; exceed the accuracy of current persistence predictions at the shortest prediction of one hour and beyond; exceed the accuracy of current forecast model output statistics inside eight hours; and be capable of making predictions at one location for all locations where weather information is available.

  18. Acquisition forecast: Fiscal year 1995

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1995-01-01

    This volume includes projections of all anticipated FY95, and beyond, NASA contract actions above $25,000 that small and small disadvantaged businesses may be able to perform under direct contract with the government or as subcontractors. The forecast consolidates anticipated procurements at each NASA center into an agencywide report, with the aim of increasing industries' advance knowledge of NASA requirements and enhancing competition in contracting. Each center forecast report is divided into three principal categories of procurement: research and development, services, and supplies and equipment.

  19. Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence.

    PubMed

    Mandel, David R; Barnes, Alan

    2014-07-29

    The accuracy of 1,514 strategic intelligence forecasts abstracted from intelligence reports was assessed. The results show that both discrimination and calibration of forecasts was very good. Discrimination was better for senior (versus junior) analysts and for easier (versus harder) forecasts. Miscalibration was mainly due to underconfidence such that analysts assigned more uncertainty than needed given their high level of discrimination. Underconfidence was more pronounced for harder (versus easier) forecasts and for forecasts deemed more (versus less) important for policy decision making. Despite the observed underconfidence, there was a paucity of forecasts in the least informative 0.4-0.6 probability range. Recalibrating the forecasts substantially reduced underconfidence. The findings offer cause for tempered optimism about the accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts and indicate that intelligence producers aim to promote informativeness while avoiding overstatement.

  20. Forecast communication through the newspaper Part 1: Framing the forecaster

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, Andrew J. L.

    2015-04-01

    This review is split into two parts both of which address issues of forecast communication of an environmental disaster through the newspaper during a period of crisis. The first part explores the process by which information passes from the scientist or forecaster, through the media filter, to the public. As part of this filter preference, omission, selection of data, source, quote and story, as well as placement of the same information within an individual piece or within the newspaper itself, can serve to distort the message. The result is the introduction of bias and slant—that is, the message becomes distorted so as to favor one side of the argument against another as it passes through the filter. Bias can be used to support spin or agenda setting, so that a particular emphasis becomes placed on the story which exerts an influence on the reader's judgment. The net result of the filter components is either a negative (contrary) or positive (supportive) frame. Tabloidization of the news has also resulted in the use of strong, evocative, exaggerated words, headlines and images to support a frame. I illustrate these various elements of the media filter using coverage of the air space closure due to the April 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland). Using the British press coverage of this event it is not difficult to find examples of all media filter elements, application of which resulted in bias against the forecast and forecaster. These actors then became named and blamed. Within this logic, it becomes only too easy for forecasters and scientists to be framed in a negative way through blame culture. The result is that forecast is framed in such a way so as to cause the forecaster to be blamed for all losses associated with the loss-causing event. Within the social amplification of risk framework (SARF), this can amplify a negative impression of the risk, the event and the response. However, actions can be taken to avoid such an outcome. These actions

  1. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  2. Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Information Technology and Services--Lessons from Home Video Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klopfenstein, Bruce C.

    1989-01-01

    Describes research that examined the strengths and weaknesses of technological forecasting methods by analyzing forecasting studies made for home video players. The discussion covers assessments and explications of correct and incorrect forecasting assumptions, and their implications for forecasting the adoption of home information technologies…

  3. EnrollForecast for Excel: K-12 Enrollment Forecasting Program. Software & User's Guide. [Computer Diskette].

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Curtis A.

    "EnrollForecast for Excel" will generate a 5-year forecast of K-12 student enrollment. It will also work for any combination of grades between kindergarten and twelth. The forecasts can be printed as either a table or a graph. The user must provide birth history (only if forecasting kindergarten) and enrollment history information. The user also…

  4. A Delphi forecast of technology in education

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robinson, B. E.

    1973-01-01

    The results are reported of a Delphi forecast of the utilization and social impacts of large-scale educational telecommunications technology. The focus is on both forecasting methodology and educational technology. The various methods of forecasting used by futurists are analyzed from the perspective of the most appropriate method for a prognosticator of educational technology, and review and critical analysis are presented of previous forecasts and studies. Graphic responses, summarized comments, and a scenario of education in 1990 are presented.

  5. FirstAidAssistanceSystem (FAAS): improvement of first aid measures using Car2Car-communication technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tuchscheerer, Sven; Hoppe, Tobias; Krätzer, Christian; Dittmann, Jana

    2011-01-01

    This work's goal is the enhancement of first aid measures directly after car accidents by calling suited first aiders via Car-to-Car (C2C) communication and to assist them providing detailed multimedia support instructions. Our concept combines upcoming C2C communication technologies with established technology, in particular GPS and GSM. After a collision, the proposed FirstAidAssistanceSystem (FAAS) sends a broadcast message using C2C technology according to the IEEE 802.11p standard. All nearby cars (as potential first aiders) are located and at least one nearest candidate (we suggest 3-5) driving towards the accident scene is chosen and notified as first aider. A support guide on his multipurpose display (e.g. the navigation system) provides first aiders with detailed instructions and illustrative tutorials. The paper presents our concept in detail with a discussion of practical evaluation criteria and an introduction of a first test implementation.

  6. Can Business Students Forecast Their Own Grade?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hossain, Belayet; Tsigaris, Panagiotis

    2013-01-01

    This study examines grade expectations of two groups of business students for their final course mark. We separate students that are on average "better" forecasters on the basis of them not making significant forecast errors during the semester from those students that are poor forecasters of their final grade. We find that the better…

  7. Student Enrollment Forecasting in Georgia: Lessons Learned.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chan, Tak Cheung; Pool, Harbison; Davidson, Ronald

    2002-01-01

    Study of school district enrollment forecasting in Georgia finds, for example, differences in forecasting accuracy between large and small school districts, the widespread use of the Cohort Survival Technique, a lag in small school districts' use of sophisticated, computer-based enrollment forecasting models. (Contains 34 references.) (PKP)

  8. School Roll Forecasting Methods: A Review.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simpson, Stephen

    1987-01-01

    A review of the literature concerning local school roll forecasting describes the theoretical model common to most local education agency (LEA) forecasts, identifies a variety of issues relevant to this area of LEA planning, and suggests some opportunities for improvement in LEA school roll forecasting. (Author/CB)

  9. Enrollment Trends, Implications and Forecasting Techniques.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Finch, Harold L.

    This paper discusses two approaches that are well adapted to school district enrollment forecasting and related planning studies. The author focuses in turn on two enrollment forecasting methods--the Analytical Simulation Approach, and the Modified Cohort Survival Approach. After briefly describing each forecasting method, he presents a short case…

  10. Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts for African Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serrat-Capdevila, A.; Valdes, J. B.; Wi, S.; Roy, T.; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Demaria, E. M.

    2015-12-01

    Using high resolution downscaled seasonal meteorological forecasts we present the development and evaluation of seasonal hydrologic forecasts with Stakeholder Agencies for selected African basins. The meteorological forecasts are produced using the Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) methodology applied to NMME hindcasts (North American Multi-Model Ensemble prediction system) to generate a bootstrap resampling of plausible weather forecasts from historical observational data. This set of downscaled forecasts is then used to drive hydrologic models to produce a range of forecasts with uncertainty estimates suitable for water resources planning in African pilot basins (i.e. Upper Zambezi, Mara Basin). In an effort to characterize the utility of these forecasts, we will present an evaluation of these forecast ensembles over the pilot basins, and discuss insights as to their operational applicability by regional actors. Further, these forecasts will be contrasted with those from a standard Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach to seasonal forecasting. The case studies presented here have been developed in the setting of the NASA SERVIR Applied Sciences Team and within the broader context of operational seasonal forecasting in Africa. These efforts are part of a dialogue with relevant planning and management agencies and institutions in Africa, which are in turn exploring how to best use uncertain forecasts for decision making.

  11. Beat the Instructor: An Introductory Forecasting Game

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Snider, Brent R.; Eliasson, Janice B.

    2013-01-01

    This teaching brief describes a 30-minute game where student groups compete in-class in an introductory time-series forecasting exercise. The students are challenged to "beat the instructor" who competes using forecasting techniques that will be subsequently taught. All forecasts are graphed prior to revealing the randomly generated…

  12. A Course in Economic Forecasting: Rationale and Content.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Loomis, David G.; Cox, James E., Jr.

    2000-01-01

    Discusses four reasons why economic forecasting courses are important: (1) forecasting skills are in demand by businesses; (2) forecasters are in demand; (3) forecasting courses have positive externalities; (4) and forecasting provides a real-world context. Describes what should be taught in an economic forecasting course. (CMK)

  13. Operational Planning of Channel Airlift Missions Using Forecasted Demand

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-03-01

    9 Forecasting Techniques .............................................................................................11 Forecasting...as they are. There is also a discussion of forecasting techniques and how they are selected and forecasting with air cargo demand. Using forms of...on the airlines themselves for near term scheduling. Forecasting Techniques There are numerous regression and forecasting techniques available to

  14. Understanding and Forecasting Ethnolinguistic Vitality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karan, Mark E.

    2011-01-01

    Forecasting of ethnolinguistic vitality can only be done within a well-functioning descriptive and explanatory model of the dynamics of language stability and shift. It is proposed that the Perceived Benefit Model of Language Shift, used with a taxonomy of language shift motivations, provides that model. The model, based on individual language…

  15. Forecasting Enrollment: An Extrapolative Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barenbaum, Lester; Ricci, Raymond

    1982-01-01

    An enrollment projection model designed and implemented at LaSalle College had five phases: establishing clear goals, model construction, model implementation, model estimation and validation, and using the forecast. The history of LaSalle's model and the elements in decision making are outlined. (MSE)

  16. In Brief: Forecasting meningitis threats

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2008-12-01

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), in conjunction with a team of health and weather organizations, has launched a project to provide weather forecasts to medical officials in Africa to help reduce outbreaks of meningitis. The forecasts will enable local health care providers to target vaccination programs more effectively. In 2009, meteorologists with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is managed by UCAR, will begin issuing 14-day forecasts of atmospheric conditions in Ghana. Later, UCAR plans to work closely with health experts from several African countries to design and test a decision support system to provide health officials with useful meteorological information. ``By targeting forecasts in regions where meningitis is a threat, we may be able to help vulnerable populations. Ultimately, we hope to build on this project and provide information to public health programs battling weather-related diseases in other parts of the world,'' said Rajul Pandya, director of UCAR's Community Building Program. Funding for the project comes from a $900,000 grant from Google.org, the philanthropic arm of the Internet search company.

  17. Worldwide satellite market demand forecast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowyer, J. M.; Frankfort, M.; Steinnagel, K. M.

    1981-01-01

    The forecast is for the years 1981 - 2000 with benchmark years at 1985, 1990 and 2000. Two typs of markets are considered for this study: Hardware (worldwide total) - satellites, earth stations and control facilities (includes replacements and spares); and non-hardware (addressable by U.S. industry) - planning, launch, turnkey systems and operations. These markets were examined for the INTELSAT System (international systems and domestic and regional systems using leased transponders) and domestic and regional systems. Forecasts were determined for six worldwide regions encompassing 185 countries using actual costs for existing equipment and engineering estimates of costs for advanced systems. Most likely (conservative growth rate estimates) and optimistic (mid range growth rate estimates) scenarios were employed for arriving at the forecasts which are presented in constant 1980 U.S. dollars. The worldwide satellite market demand forecast predicts that the market between 181 and 2000 will range from $35 to $50 billion. Approximately one-half of the world market, $16 to $20 billion, will be generated in the United States.

  18. Military needs and forecast, 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goldstayn, Alan B.

    1986-01-01

    FORECAST 2 has accomplished its objectives of identifying high leverage technologies for corporate Air Force review. Implementation is underway with emphasis on restructuring existing programs and programming resources in the FY88 BES/FY89 POM. Many joint service/agency opportunities exist.

  19. Forecasting depression in bipolar disorder.

    PubMed

    Moore, Paul J; Little, Max A; McSharry, Patrick E; Geddes, John R; Goodwin, Guy M

    2012-10-01

    Bipolar disorder is characterized by recurrent episodes of mania and depression and affects about 1% of the adult population. The condition can have a major impact on an individual's ability to function and is associated with a long-term risk of suicide. In this paper, we report on the use of self-rated mood data to forecast the next week's depression ratings. The data used in the study have been collected using SMS text messaging and comprises one time series of approximately weekly mood ratings for each patient. We find a wide variation between series: some exhibit a large change in mean over the monitored period and there is a variation in correlation structure. Almost half of the time series are forecast better by unconditional mean than by persistence. Two methods are employed for forecasting: exponential smoothing and Gaussian process regression. Neither approach gives an improvement over a persistence baseline. We conclude that the depression time series from patients with bipolar disorder are very heterogeneous and that this constrains the accuracy of automated mood forecasting across the set of patients. However, the dataset is a valuable resource and work remains to be done that might result in clinically useful information and tools.

  20. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark

    2005-01-01

    The Applied Meteorology Unit developed a forecast tool that provides an assessment of the likelihood of local convective severe weather for the day in order to enhance protection of personnel and material assets of the 45th Space Wing Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), and Kennedy Space Center (KSC).

  1. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

  2. A Wind Forecasting System for Energy Application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Courtney, Jennifer; Lynch, Peter; Sweeney, Conor

    2010-05-01

    Accurate forecasting of available energy is crucial for the efficient management and use of wind power in the national power grid. With energy output critically dependent upon wind strength there is a need to reduce the errors associated wind forecasting. The objective of this research is to get the best possible wind forecasts for the wind energy industry. To achieve this goal, three methods are being applied. First, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model called WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) is being used to predict wind values over Ireland. Currently, a gird resolution of 10km is used and higher model resolutions are being evaluated to establish whether they are economically viable given the forecast skill improvement they produce. Second, the WRF model is being used in conjunction with ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensemble forecasts to produce a probabilistic weather forecasting product. Due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, a single, deterministic weather forecast can only have limited skill. The ECMWF ensemble methods produce an ensemble of 51 global forecasts, twice a day, by perturbing initial conditions of a 'control' forecast which is the best estimate of the initial state of the atmosphere. This method provides an indication of the reliability of the forecast and a quantitative basis for probabilistic forecasting. The limitation of ensemble forecasting lies in the fact that the perturbed model runs behave differently under different weather patterns and each model run is equally likely to be closest to the observed weather situation. Models have biases, and involve assumptions about physical processes and forcing factors such as underlying topography. Third, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is being applied to the output from the ensemble forecasts in order to statistically post-process the results and achieve a better wind forecasting system. BMA is a promising technique that will offer calibrated

  3. Multi-model ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones in 2010 and 2011 based on the Kalman Filter method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Chengfei; Zhi, Xiefei; You, Qinglong; Song, Bin; Fraedrich, Klaus

    2015-08-01

    This study conducted 24- to 72-h multi-model ensemble forecasts to explore the tracks and intensities (central mean sea level pressure) of tropical cyclones (TCs). Forecast data for the northwestern Pacific basin in 2010 and 2011 were selected from the China Meteorological Administration, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Japan Meteorological Agency, and National Centers for Environmental Prediction datasets of the Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment Interactive Grand Global Ensemble project. The Kalman Filter was employed to conduct the TC forecasts, along with the ensemble mean and super-ensemble for comparison. The following results were obtained: (1) The statistical-dynamic Kalman Filter, in which recent observations are given more importance and model weighting coefficients are adjusted over time, produced quite different results from that of the super-ensemble. (2) The Kalman Filter reduced the TC mean absolute track forecast error by approximately 50, 80 and 100 km in the 24-, 48- and 72-h forecasts, respectively, compared with the best individual model (ECMWF). Also, the intensity forecasts were improved by the Kalman Filter to some extent in terms of average intensity deviation (AID) and correlation coefficients with reanalysis intensity data. Overall, the Kalman Filter technique performed better compared to multi-models, the ensemble mean, and the super-ensemble in 3-day forecasts. The implication of this study is that this technique appears to be a very promising statistical-dynamic method for multi-model ensemble forecasts of TCs.

  4. American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) FEMP Technical Assistance Federal Aviation Administration – Project 209 Control Tower and Support Building, Reno, Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Arends, J.; Sandusky, William F.

    2010-06-30

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Redhorse Corporation (Redhorse) conducted an energy audit on the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) control tower and base building in Reno, Nevada. This report presents the findings of the energy audit team that evaluated construction documents and operating specifications (at the 100% level) and completed a site visit. The focus of the review was to identify measures that could be incorporated into the final design and operating specifications that would result in additional energy savings for the FAA that would not have otherwise occurred.

  5. American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) - FEMP Technical Assistance - Federal Aviation Administration - Project 209 - Control Tower and Support Building, Boise, Idaho

    SciTech Connect

    Arends, J.; Sandusky, William F.

    2010-06-28

    This report documents an energy audit performed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Redhorse Corporation (Redhorse) conducted on the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) control tower and base building in Boise, Idaho. This report presents findings of the energy audit team that evaluated construction documents and operating specifications (at the 100% level) followed by a site visit of the facility under construction. The focus of the review was to identify measures that could be incorporated into the final design and operating specifications that would result in additional energy savings for FAA that would not have otherwise occurred.

  6. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  7. Determination of Fe Content of Some Food Items by Flame Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy (FAAS): A Guided-Inquiry Learning Experience in Instrumental Analysis Laboratory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fakayode, Sayo O.; King, Angela G.; Yakubu, Mamudu; Mohammed, Abdul K.; Pollard, David A.

    2012-01-01

    This article presents a guided-inquiry (GI) hands-on determination of Fe in food samples including plantains, spinach, lima beans, oatmeal, Frosted Flakes cereal (generic), tilapia fish, and chicken using flame atomic absorption spectroscopy (FAAS). The utility of the GI experiment, which is part of an instrumental analysis laboratory course,…

  8. Evaluation of lubricating oil preparation procedures for the determination of Al, Ba, Mo, Si and V by high-resolution continuum source FAAS.

    PubMed

    Amorim Filho, Volnei Resta; Gomes Neto, José Anchieta

    2009-01-01

    Microwave-assisted acid decomposition and oil-in-water emulsification were evaluated as sample pretreatment procedures to determine Al, Ba, Mo, Si and V in lubricating oils by high-resolution continuum source flame atomic absorption spectrometry (HR-CS FAAS). Average recoveries of Al, Ba and V in oil digests (107, 103 and 101%) were close to those obtained for emulsions prepared in kerosene medium (94, 113 and 95%). Average recoveries for Mo were close to 105 and 46% for emulsions and digests, respectively. Improved average recoveries (101%) were obtained for Mo in digests using the analyte addition technique. Silicon was successfully quantified only in digested samples. Limits of quantification for Al, Ba, Mo and V were 1.4, 31.5, 1.5 and 11.4-fold lower than those obtained by line-source FAAS. Enhanced sensitivity, multi-elemental capability, and high sample throughput are among the main advantages of HR-CS FAAS in comparison with the line-source FAAS technique.

  9. 41 CFR 102-33.230 - May we use military FSCAP on non-military FAA-type certificated Government aircraft?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... FSCAP on non-military FAA-type certificated Government aircraft? 102-33.230 Section 102-33.230 Public... certificated Government aircraft? You may use dual-use military FSCAP on non-military aircraft operated under... MANAGEMENT REGULATION PERSONAL PROPERTY 33-MANAGEMENT OF GOVERNMENT AIRCRAFT Managing Government......

  10. 41 CFR 102-33.230 - May we use military FSCAP on non-military FAA-type certificated Government aircraft?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... FSCAP on non-military FAA-type certificated Government aircraft? 102-33.230 Section 102-33.230 Public... certificated Government aircraft? You may use dual-use military FSCAP on non-military aircraft operated under... MANAGEMENT REGULATION PERSONAL PROPERTY 33-MANAGEMENT OF GOVERNMENT AIRCRAFT Managing Government......

  11. 41 CFR 102-33.230 - May we use military FSCAP on non-military FAA-type certificated Government aircraft?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... FSCAP on non-military FAA-type certificated Government aircraft? 102-33.230 Section 102-33.230 Public... certificated Government aircraft? You may use dual-use military FSCAP on non-military aircraft operated under... MANAGEMENT REGULATION PERSONAL PROPERTY 33-MANAGEMENT OF GOVERNMENT AIRCRAFT Managing Government......

  12. 41 CFR 102-33.230 - May we use military FSCAP on non-military FAA-type certificated Government aircraft?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... FSCAP on non-military FAA-type certificated Government aircraft? 102-33.230 Section 102-33.230 Public... certificated Government aircraft? You may use dual-use military FSCAP on non-military aircraft operated under... MANAGEMENT REGULATION PERSONAL PROPERTY 33-MANAGEMENT OF GOVERNMENT AIRCRAFT Managing Government......

  13. 41 CFR 102-33.230 - May we use military FSCAP on non-military FAA-type certificated Government aircraft?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... FSCAP on non-military FAA-type certificated Government aircraft? 102-33.230 Section 102-33.230 Public... certificated Government aircraft? You may use dual-use military FSCAP on non-military aircraft operated under... MANAGEMENT REGULATION PERSONAL PROPERTY 33-MANAGEMENT OF GOVERNMENT AIRCRAFT Managing Government......

  14. Aircraft and ground vehicle friction correlation test results obtained under winter runway conditions during joint FAA/NASA Runway Friction Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yager, Thomas J.; Vogler, William A.; Baldasare, Paul

    1988-01-01

    Aircraft and ground vehicle friction data collected during the Joint FAA/NASA Runway Friction Program under winter runway conditions are discussed and test results are summarized. The relationship between the different ground vehicle friction measurements obtained on compacted snow- and ice-covered conditions is defined together with the correlation to aircraft tire friction performance under similar runway conditions.

  15. Isolation of a Saccharomyces cerevisiae long chain fatty acyl:CoA synthetase gene (FAA1) and assessment of its role in protein N- myristoylation

    PubMed Central

    1992-01-01

    Regulation of myristoylCoA pools in Saccharomyces cerevisiae plays an important role in modulating the activity of myristoylCoA:protein N- myristoyltransferase (NMT), an essential enzyme with an ordered Bi Bi reaction that catalyzes the transfer of myristate from myristoylCoA to greater than or equal to 12 cellular proteins. At least two pathways are available for generating myristoylCoA: de novo synthesis by the multifunctional, multisubunit fatty acid synthetase complex (FAS) and activation of exogenous myristate by acylCoA synthetase. The FAA1 (fatty acid activation) gene has been isolated by genetic complementation of a faal mutant. This single copy gene, which maps to the right arm of chromosome XV, specifies a long chain acylCoA synthetase of 700 amino acids. Analyses of strains containing NMT1 and a faal null mutation indicated that FAA1 is not essential for vegetative growth when an active de novo pathway for fatty acid synthesis is present. The role of FAA1 in cellular lipid metabolism and protein N-myristoylation was therefore assessed in strains subjected to biochemical or genetic blockade of FAS. At 36 degrees C, FAA1 is required for the utilization of exogenous myristate by NMT and for the synthesis of several phospholipid species. This requirement is not apparent at 24 or 30 degrees C, suggesting that S. cerevisiae contains another acylCoA synthetase activity whose chain length and/or temperature optima may differ from Faalp. PMID:1572893

  16. Rolling forecasting model of PM2.5 concentration based on support vector machine and particle swarm optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Chang-Jiang; Dai, Li-Jie; Ma, Lei-Ming

    2016-10-01

    The data of current PM2.5 model forecasting greatly deviate from the measured concentration. In order to solve this problem, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) are combined to build a rolling forecasting model. The important parameters (C and γ) of SVM are optimized by PSO. The data (from February to July in 2015), consisting of measured PM2.5 concentration, PM2.5 model forecasting concentration and five main model forecasting meteorological factors, are provided by Shanghai Meteorological Bureau in Pudong New Area. The rolling model is used to forecast hourly PM2.5 concentration in 12 hours in advance and the nighttime average concentration (mean value from 9 pm to next day 8 am) during the upcoming day. The training data and the optimal parameters of SVM model are different in every forecasting, that is to say, different models (dynamic models) are built in every forecasting. SVM model is compared with Radical Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN), Multi-variable Linear Regression (MLR) and WRF-CHEM. Experimental results show that the proposed model improves the forecasting accuracy of hourly PM2.5 concentration in 12 hours in advance and nighttime average concentration during the upcoming day. SVM model performs better than MLR, RBFNN and WRF-CHEM. SVM model greatly improves the forecasting accuracy of PM2.5 concentration one hour in advance, according with the result concluded from previous research. The rolling forecasting model can be applied to the field of PM2.5 concentration forecasting, and can offer help to meteorological administration in PM2.5 concentration monitoring and forecasting.

  17. Environmental forecasting and turbulence modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hunt, J. C. R.

    This review describes the fundamental assumptions and current methodologies of the two main kinds of environmental forecast; the first is valid for a limited period of time into the future and over a limited space-time ‘target’, and is largely determined by the initial and preceding state of the environment, such as the weather or pollution levels, up to the time when the forecast is issued and by its state at the edges of the region being considered; the second kind provides statistical information over long periods of time and/or over large space-time targets, so that they only depend on the statistical averages of the initial and ‘edge’ conditions. Environmental forecasts depend on the various ways that models are constructed. These range from those based on the ‘reductionist’ methodology (i.e., the combination of separate, scientifically based, models for the relevant processes) to those based on statistical methodologies, using a mixture of data and scientifically based empirical modeling. These are, as a rule, focused on specific quantities required for the forecast. The persistence and predictability of events associated with environmental and turbulent flows and the reasons for variation in the accuracy of their forecasts (of the first and second kinds) are now better understood and better modeled. This has partly resulted from using analogous results of disordered chaotic systems, and using the techniques of calculating ensembles of realizations, ideally involving several different models, so as to incorporate in the probabilistic forecasts a wider range of possible events. The rationale for such an approach needs to be developed. However, other insights have resulted from the recognition of the ordered, though randomly occurring, nature of the persistent motions in these flows, whose scales range from those of synoptic weather patterns (whether storms or ‘blocked’ anticyclones) to small scale vortices. These eigen states can be predicted

  18. Short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting using operationally-produced single-valued streamflow forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Regonda, Satish; Seo, Dong-Jun; Lawrence, Bill

    2010-05-01

    We present a statistical procedure that generates short-term streamflow ensemble forecasts from single-valued, or deterministic, forecasts operationally produced by the National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFC). The resulting ensemble forecast provides an estimate of the uncertainty in the single-valued forecast to aid risk-based decision making by the emergency managers and by the users of the forecast products and services. The single-valued forecasts are produced at a 6-hr time step for 5 days into the future, and reflect single-valued short-term quantitative precipitation and temperature forecasts (QPF, QTF) and various run-time modifications (MOD), or manual data assimilation, by human forecasters to reduce various sources of error in the end-to-end forecast process. The proposed procedure generates 5 day-ahead ensemble traces of streamflow from a very parsimonious approximation of the conditional multivariate probability distribution of future streamflow given the single-valued streamflow forecasts, QPF and recent streamflow observations. For parameter estimation and evaluation, we used a 10-year archive of the single-valued river stage forecasts for six forecast points in Oklahoma produced operationally by the Arkansas-Red River Basin River Forecast Center (ABRFC). To evaluate the procedure, we carried out dependent and leave-one-year-out cross validation. The resulting ensemble hindcasts are then verified using the Ensemble Verification System (EVS) developed at the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD).

  19. Increasing vertical resolution in US models to improve track forecasts of Hurricane Joaquin with HWRF as an example

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Banglin; Lindzen, Richard S.; Tallapragada, Vijay; Weng, Fuzhong; Liu, Qingfu; Sippel, Jason A.; Ma, Zaizhong; Bender, Morris A.

    2016-10-01

    The atmosphere-ocean coupled Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast model (HWRF) developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used as an example to illustrate the impact of model vertical resolution on track forecasts of tropical cyclones. A number of HWRF forecasting experiments were carried out at different vertical resolutions for Hurricane Joaquin, which occurred from September 27 to October 8, 2015, in the Atlantic Basin. The results show that the track prediction for Hurricane Joaquin is much more accurate with higher vertical resolution. The positive impacts of higher vertical resolution on hurricane track forecasts suggest that National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/NCEP should upgrade both HWRF and the Global Forecast System to have more vertical levels.

  20. Airfreight forecasting methodology and results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1978-01-01

    A series of econometric behavioral equations was developed to explain and forecast the evolution of airfreight traffic demand for the total U.S. domestic airfreight system, the total U.S. international airfreight system, and the total scheduled international cargo traffic carried by the top 44 foreign airlines. The basic explanatory variables used in these macromodels were the real gross national products of the countries involved and a measure of relative transportation costs. The results of the econometric analysis reveal that the models explain more than 99 percent of the historical evolution of freight traffic. The long term traffic forecasts generated with these models are based on scenarios of the likely economic outlook in the United States and 31 major foreign countries.

  1. Mesoscale model forecast verification during monsoon 2008

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ashrit, Raghavendra; Mohandas, Saji

    2010-08-01

    There have been very few mesoscale modelling studies of the Indian monsoon, with focus on the verification and intercomparison of the operational real time forecasts. With the exception of Das et al (2008), most of the studies in the literature are either the case studies of tropical cyclones and thunderstorms or the sensitivity studies involving physical parameterization or climate simulation studies. Almost all the studies are based on either National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, final analysis fields (NCEP FNL) or the reanalysis data used as initial and lateral boundary conditions for driving the mesoscale model. Here we present a mesoscale model forecast verification and intercomparison study over India involving three mesoscale models: (i) the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), USA, (ii) the MM5 model developed by NCAR, and (iii) the Eta model of the NCEP, USA. The analysis is carried out for the monsoon season, June to September 2008. This study is unique since it is based entirely on the real time global model forecasts of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) T254 global analysis and forecast system. Based on the evaluation and intercomparison of the mesoscale model forecasts, we recommend the best model for operational real-time forecasts over the Indian region. Although the forecast mean 850 hPa circulation shows realistic monsoon flow and the monsoon trough, the systematic errors over the Arabian Sea indicate an easterly bias to the north (of mean flow) and westerly bias to the south (of mean flow). This suggests that the forecasts feature a southward shift in the monsoon current. The systematic error in the 850 hPa temperature indicates that largely the WRF model forecasts feature warm bias and the MM5 model forecasts feature cold bias. Features common to all the three models include warm bias over northwest India and cold bias over

  2. Forecast of iceberg ensemble drift

    SciTech Connect

    El-Tahan, M.S.; El-Tahan, H.W.; Venkatesh, S.

    1983-05-01

    The objectives of the study are to gain a better understanding of the characteristics of iceberg motion and the factors controlling iceberg drift, and to develop an iceberg ensemble drift forecast system to be operated by the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service. An extensive review of field and theoretical studies on iceberg behaviour, and the factors controlling iceberg motion has been carried out. Long term and short term behaviour of icebergs are critically examined. A quantitative assessment of the effects of the factors controlling iceberg motion is presented. The study indicated that wind and currents are the primary driving forces. Coriolis Force and ocean surface slope also have significant effects. As for waves, only the higher waves have a significant effect. Iceberg drift is also affected by iceberg size characteristics. Based on the findings of the study a comprehensive computerized forecast system to predict the drift of iceberg ensembles off Canada's east coast has been designed. The expected accuracy of the forecast system is discussed and recommendations are made for future improvements to the system.

  3. Assessment of reservoir system variable forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kistenmacher, Martin; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2015-05-01

    Forecast ensembles are a convenient means to model water resources uncertainties and to inform planning and management processes. For multipurpose reservoir systems, forecast types include (i) forecasts of upcoming inflows and (ii) forecasts of system variables and outputs such as reservoir levels, releases, flood damage risks, hydropower production, water supply withdrawals, water quality conditions, navigation opportunities, and environmental flows, among others. Forecasts of system variables and outputs are conditional on forecasted inflows as well as on specific management policies and can provide useful information for decision-making processes. Unlike inflow forecasts (in ensemble or other forms), which have been the subject of many previous studies, reservoir system variable and output forecasts are not formally assessed in water resources management theory or practice. This article addresses this gap and develops methods to rectify potential reservoir system forecast inconsistencies and improve the quality of management-relevant information provided to stakeholders and managers. The overarching conclusion is that system variable and output forecast consistency is critical for robust reservoir management and needs to be routinely assessed for any management model used to inform planning and management processes. The above are demonstrated through an application from the Sacramento-American-San Joaquin reservoir system in northern California.

  4. Using Forecasting to Teach Weather Science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsubota, Y.; Takahashi, T.

    2009-09-01

    Weather affects our lives and hence, is a popular topic in daily conversations and in the media. Therefore, it is not only important to teach weather, but is also a good idea to use 'weather' as a topic in science teaching. Science education has two main objectives: to acquire scientific concepts and methods. Weather forecasting is an adequate theme to teach scientific methods because it is dependent on observation. However, it is not easy to forecast weather using only temporal observation. We need to know the tendency of 'weather change' via consecutive and/or continuous weather observation. Students will acquire scientific-observation skills through weather observation. Data-processing skills would be enhanced through a weather-forecasting contest. A contest should be announced within 5 days of school events, such as a school excursion and field day. Students submit their own weather forecast by gathering weather information through the internet, news paper and so on. A weather-forecasting contest compels the student to observe the weather more often. We currently have some different weather forecasts. For example, American weather-related companies such as ACCU weather and Weather Channel provide weather forecast for the many locations all over the world. Comparing these weather forecasting with actual weather, participants such as students could evaluate the differences between forecasted and actual temperatures. Participants will judge the best weather forecast based on the magnitude of the difference. Also, participants evaluate the 'hitting ratio' of each weather forecast. Students can learn elementary statistics by comparing various weather forecasts. We have developed our weather web-site that provides our own weather forecasting and observation. Students acquire science skills using our weather web-site. We will report our lessen plans and explain our weather web-site.

  5. Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2012-01-01

    Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare

  6. Resting eggs as new biosorbent for preconcentration of trace elements in various samples prior to their determination by FAAS.

    PubMed

    Saçmacı, Serife; Yılmaz, Yakup; Kartal, Senol; Kaya, Murat; Duman, Fatih

    2014-06-01

    In this study, the resting eggs of aquatic creatures living in freshwater (Daphnia, Cladocera, Crustacean) ecosystems were used as a novel biosorbent extractant for synchronous preconcentration of trace Cd(II), Co(II), Cu(II), Mn(II), and Ni(II) previous to measurement by flame atomic absorpiton spectrometry (FAAS). Using column procedures, optimization studies were conducted to realize the effective adsorption of the analyte ions such as the solution pH, amount of the biosorbent, volume of the sample, interfering ions, etc. A high preconcentration factor of 67 and low relative standard deflection of ≤4.1% (n=8) were obtained. The invention constrains based on the 3 s/b criterion were 2.4 for Cd(II), 41.4 for Co(II), 4.2 for Cu(II), 3.0 for Mn(II), and 9.6 μg L(-1) for Ni(II). The accuracy of the method was verified by analysis of a certified standard reference material. The used procedure was applied to the definition of the analytes in diverse environmental samples with convincing results. Consequently, the resting eggs of Daphnia can be used as a biosorbent for preconcentration and biosorption studies.

  7. Charlotte - EDC Evaluation and Demonstration (CEED) Human-in-the-Loop Results Briefing to ATD-2 FAA Partners

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chevalley, Eric

    2016-01-01

    The Charlotte EDC Evaluation and Demonstration (CEED) was the first Human-In-The-Loop experiment under the Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration-2 (ATD-2) project. The purpose of the study was fourfold: 1) to establish a simulation environment (Charlotte) for airspace operations for ATD-2 technology, 2) to simulate current-day departures and arrival operations, 3) to assess the impact of current Traffic Management Initiatives (TMI) on Charlotte (CLT) departure flows and en route operations in Washington (ZDC) and Atlanta Centers (ZTL), and 4) to assess the impact of departure takeoff time compliance on airspace operations. The experimental design compared 3 TMIs and 2 compliance levels. Fourteen FAA retired controllers participated in the simulation. In addition, two Traffic Management Coordinators from ZTL and ZDC managed traffic flows. Surface and airborne delays, control efficiency, throughput, realism, workload, and acceptability were assessed and will be compared across the experimental conditions. Participants rated the simulation as very realistic. Results indicate that different TMIs have different impacts on surface and airspace delay. Departure compliance indicates partial benefits to sector complexity and controller workload. This simulation will provide an initial assessment of the tactical scheduling problems that the ATD-2 technology will address in the near term.

  8. [Determination of six mineral elements in roots, stems, leaves, flowers and seeds of Scutellaria baicalensis by FAAS].

    PubMed

    Sheng, Ji-Ping; Chen, Hai-Rong; Shen, Lin

    2009-02-01

    A study was carried out on the contents of six trace elements, Ca, Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn and K, in roots, stems, leaves, flowers and seeds of planted Scutellaria baicalensis, by flame atomic absorption spectrophotometry (FAAS). The results indicated that Scutellaria baicalensis was rich in trace elements, meaning that it has a relatively high nutritive value. In stems of Scutellaria baicalensis, the content sequence of the six trace elements was found to be Fe > Mn > Zn = Cu > K > Ca. In leaves, the content sequence of the six trace elements was Fe> Mn > Zn > Cu > K > Ca. In flowers and seeds it was Ca > Fe > Mn > Zn > Cu > K, and Ca > Fe > Zn > Mn > Cu >K, separately, and in roots it was Ca > Fe > Cu > Mn > Zn > K. The stems, leaves, flowers and seeds are rich in Fe, whose content is higher than that in pork liver, Mn and Zn, but lower in Ca. The flowers, seeds and roots are especially rich in Ca, whose content is higher than that in bone, indicating that different parts of Scutellaria baicalensis may accumulate different mineral element. This study, for the first time, researched into Ca, Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn and K contents in different parts of Scutellaria baicalensis, which helps explain the multifunction of Scutellaria baicalensis and provides theoretical basis for further developing its medical and edible value.

  9. Statistical evaluation of CFS seasonal precipitation forecasts for large-scale droughts in Africa and India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siegmund, Jonatan; Bliefernicht, Jan; Laux, Patrick; Kunstmann, Harald

    2013-04-01

    Monthly and seasonal meteorological forecasts are routinely produced by several international weather services using global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. This kind of information can be used as source of information in operational hydrological monitoring and forecasting systems to improve early drought warnings. In March 2011, a new version of the global coupled model of the National Centre for Environmental Prediction, the Climate Forecast System (CFS) Version 2, became operational providing real-time ensemble forecasts up to nine months. However, a comprehensive analysis of the CFS forecast for the prediction of droughts in water stress regions has not yet been performed. In this study we evaluate the CFS precipitation forecasts for large-scale droughts that occurred during the rainy season in West Africa, East Africa and India. The target areas are large-scale river-basins like Volta (West Africa), Ganges (India) and the administrative area of Kenya. The forecasts are compared to monthly precipitation observations provided on a regular grid by the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre. In addition, the CFS performance is evaluated using areal monthly precipitation amount of the river basin of interest as an indicator for dry months. The verification is done for the period 1982-2009 using all ensemble members of the retrospective CFS archive. The outcomes of this study illustrate, that the CFS in some cases can simulate general features of the monthly precipitation regime for the respective river basins. However, an evaluation using the entire retrospective CFS forecasts demonstrates a low accuracy. Furthermore, the seasonal forecasts of monthly precipitation are characterized by a large over- and underestimation during the rainy season depending on the target region. In this presentation, the following issues are highlighted: (i) The performance of the CFS precipitation forecast for individual events such as the severe India drought in

  10. Skillful seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice retreat and advance dates in a dynamical forecast system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sigmond, M.; Reader, M. C.; Flato, G. M.; Merryfield, W. J.; Tivy, A.

    2016-12-01

    The need for skillful seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice is rapidly increasing. Technology to perform such forecasts with coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice systems has only recently become available, with previous skill evaluations mainly limited to area-integrated quantities. Here we show, based on a large set of retrospective ensemble model forecasts, that a dynamical forecast system produces skillful seasonal forecasts of local sea ice retreat and advance dates - variables that are of great interest to a wide range of end users. Advance dates can generally be skillfully predicted at longer lead times ( 5 months on average) than retreat dates ( 3 months). The skill of retreat date forecasts mainly stems from persistence of initial sea ice anomalies, whereas advance date forecasts benefit from longer time scale and more predictable variability in ocean temperatures. These results suggest that further investments in the development of dynamical seasonal forecast systems may result in significant socioeconomic benefits.

  11. Next-Generation Severe Weather Forecasting and Communication

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rothfusz, Lans P.; Karstens, Christopher; Hilderband, Douglas

    2014-09-01

    Despite advances in the hazardous weather predictive skills of forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) [Simmons and Sutter, 2011], the underlying methodologies used to generate severe weather watches (i.e., announcements that the potential for severe weather exists) and warnings (i.e., announcements that severe weather conditions are occurring or imminent) have changed little since they were first issued in 1965. The resulting text-based, deterministic (i.e., a single, most accurate value) messages lack the detail and flexibility to match the technology, science, diversity, lifestyles, and vulnerability of society today.

  12. How rolling forecasting facilitates dynamic, agile planning.

    PubMed

    Miller, Debra; Allen, Michael; Schnittger, Stephanie; Hackman, Theresa

    2013-11-01

    Rolling forecasting may be used to replace or supplement the annual budget process. The rolling forecast typically builds on the organization's strategic financial plan, focusing on the first three years of plan projections and comparing the strategic financial plan assumptions with the organization's expected trajectory. Leaders can then identify and respond to gaps between the rolling forecast and the strategic financial plan on an ongoing basis.

  13. Volcanic ash forecast transport and dispersion (VAFTAD) model

    SciTech Connect

    Heffter, J.L.; Stunder, B.J.B.

    1993-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) has developed a Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport And Dispersion (VAFTAD) model for emergency response use focusing on hazards to aircraft flight operations. The model is run on a workstation at ARL. Meteorological input for the model is automatically downloaded from the NOAA National Meteorological Center (NMC) twice-daily forecast model runs to ARL. Additional input for VAFTAD ragarding the volcanic eruption is supplied by the user guided by monitor prompts. The model calculates transport and dispersion of volcanic ash from an initial ash cloud that has reached its maximum height within 3 h of eruption time. The model assumes that spherical ash particles of diameters ranging from 0.3 to 30 micrometers are distributed throughout the initial cloud with a particle number distribution based on Mount St. Helens and Redoubt Volcano eruptions. Particles are advected horizontally and vertically by the winds and fall according to Stoke`s law with a slip correction. A bivariate-normal distribution is used for horizontally diffusing the cloud and determining ash concentrations. Model output gives maps with symbols representing relative concentrations in three flight layers, and throughout the entire ash cloud, for sequential 6- and 12-h time intervals. A verification program for VAFTAD has been started. Results subjectively comparing model ash cloud forecasts with satellite imagery for three separate 1992 eruptions of Mount Spurr in Alaska have been most encouraging.

  14. Bias correcting precipitation forecasts to improve the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crochemore, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-09-01

    Meteorological centres make sustained efforts to provide seasonal forecasts that are increasingly skilful, which has the potential to benefit streamflow forecasting. Seasonal streamflow forecasts can help to take anticipatory measures for a range of applications, such as water supply or hydropower reservoir operation and drought risk management. This study assesses the skill of seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts in France to provide insights into the way bias correcting precipitation forecasts can improve the skill of streamflow forecasts at extended lead times. We apply eight variants of bias correction approaches to the precipitation forecasts prior to generating the streamflow forecasts. The approaches are based on the linear scaling and the distribution mapping methods. A daily hydrological model is applied at the catchment scale to transform precipitation into streamflow. We then evaluate the skill of raw (without bias correction) and bias-corrected precipitation and streamflow ensemble forecasts in 16 catchments in France. The skill of the ensemble forecasts is assessed in reliability, sharpness, accuracy and overall performance. A reference prediction system, based on historical observed precipitation and catchment initial conditions at the time of forecast (i.e. ESP method) is used as benchmark in the computation of the skill. The results show that, in most catchments, raw seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts are often more skilful than the conventional ESP method in terms of sharpness. However, they are not significantly better in terms of reliability. Forecast skill is generally improved when applying bias correction. Two bias correction methods show the best performance for the studied catchments, each method being more successful in improving specific attributes of the forecasts: the simple linear scaling of monthly values contributes mainly to increasing forecast sharpness and accuracy, while the empirical distribution mapping

  15. Intermediate-term forecasting of aftershocks from an early aftershock sequence: Bayesian and ensemble forecasting approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omi, Takahiro; Ogata, Yosihiko; Hirata, Yoshito; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2015-04-01

    Because aftershock occurrences can cause significant seismic risks for a considerable time after the main shock, prospective forecasting of the intermediate-term aftershock activity as soon as possible is important. The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model with the maximum likelihood estimate effectively reproduces general aftershock activity including secondary or higher-order aftershocks and can be employed for the forecasting. However, because we cannot always expect the accurate parameter estimation from incomplete early aftershock data where many events are missing, such forecasting using only a single estimated parameter set (plug-in forecasting) can frequently perform poorly. Therefore, we here propose Bayesian forecasting that combines the forecasts by the ETAS model with various probable parameter sets given the data. By conducting forecasting tests of 1 month period aftershocks based on the first 1 day data after the main shock as an example of the early intermediate-term forecasting, we show that the Bayesian forecasting performs better than the plug-in forecasting on average in terms of the log-likelihood score. Furthermore, to improve forecasting of large aftershocks, we apply a nonparametric (NP) model using magnitude data during the learning period and compare its forecasting performance with that of the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) formula. We show that the NP forecast performs better than the G-R formula in some cases but worse in other cases. Therefore, robust forecasting can be obtained by employing an ensemble forecast that combines the two complementary forecasts. Our proposed method is useful for a stable unbiased intermediate-term assessment of aftershock probabilities.

  16. Assessing probabilistic forecasts of volcanic eruption onsets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bebbington, Mark S.

    2013-12-01

    A method for assessing prospectively the quality of a suite of eruption forecasts is proposed. Any forecast of the next eruption onset from a polygenetic volcano can be converted into a probability distribution for the elapsed time since the forecast is made. This probability distribution, which effectively becomes a statistical P value when the observation is "plugged in," will thus itself have a uniform distribution under the null hypothesis that the forecast correctly describes the process. Given sufficient realizations, which may be on the same or different volcanoes, we can use standard statistical tests, such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, to determine if the forecasts are consistent with the model(s). The use of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test enables currently open forecasts to be included via the Kaplan-Meier product-limit estimator. While consistent underestimates (or overestimates) of the repose length will result in a median greater (or less) than , the method also assesses whether the method assigns the correct degree of aleatory variability to the forecast. Note that it is possible for the forecasts to be less precise than claimed. This would be indicated by the median of the sample being around , but the quartiles being well outside the interval, for example. The method is illustrated on the author's library of forecasts dating back to 1994, including renewal models and other point processes, on a gallery of approximately 20 volcanoes including Etna, Aso, and Ruapehu.

  17. Optimized Flood Forecasts Using a Statistical Enemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silver, Micha; Fredj, Erick

    2016-04-01

    The method presented here assembles an optimized flood forecast from a set of consecutive WRF-Hydro simulations by applying coefficients which we derive from straightforward statistical procedures. Several government and research institutions that produce climate data offer ensemble forecasts, which merge predictions from different models to gain a more accurate fit to observed data. Existing ensemble forecasts present climate and weather predictions only. In this research we propose a novel approach to constructing hydrological ensembles for flood forecasting. The ensemble flood forecast is created by combining predictions from the same model, but initiated at different times. An operative flood forecasting system, run by the Israeli Hydrological Service, produces flood forecasts twice daily with a 72 hour forecast period. By collating the output from consecutive simulation runs we have access to multiple overlapping forecasts. We then apply two statistical procedures to blend these consecutive forecasts, resulting in a very close fit to observed flood runoff. We first employ cross-correlation with a time lag to determine a time shift for each of the original, consecutive forecasts. This shift corrects for two possible sources of error: slow or fast moving weather fronts in the base climate data; and mis-calibrations of the WRF-Hydro model in determining the rate of flow of surface runoff and in channels. We apply this time shift to all consecutive forecasts, then run a linear regression with the observed runoff data as the dependent variable and all shifted forecasts as the predictor variables. The solution to the linear regression equation is a set of coefficients that corrects the amplitude errors in the forecasts. These resulting regression coefficients are then applied to the consecutive forecasts producing a statistical ensemble which, by design, closely matches the observed runoff. After performing this procedure over many storm events in the Negev region

  18. Visualization of ocean forecast in BYTHOS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuk, E.; Zodiatis, G.; Nikolaidis, A.; Stylianou, S.; Karaolia, A.

    2016-08-01

    The Cyprus Oceanography Center has been constantly searching for new ideas for developing and implementing innovative methods and new developments concerning the use of Information Systems in Oceanography, to suit both the Center's monitoring and forecasting products. Within the frame of this scope two major online managing and visualizing data systems have been developed and utilized, those of CYCOFOS and BYTHOS. The Cyprus Coastal Ocean Forecasting and Observing System - CYCOFOS provides a variety of operational predictions such as ultra high, high and medium resolution ocean forecasts in the Levantine Basin, offshore and coastal sea state forecasts in the Mediterranean and Black Sea, tide forecasting in the Mediterranean, ocean remote sensing in the Eastern Mediterranean and coastal and offshore monitoring. As a rich internet application, BYTHOS enables scientists to search, visualize and download oceanographic data online and in real time. The recent improving of BYTHOS system is the extension with access and visualization of CYCOFOS data and overlay forecast fields and observing data. The CYCOFOS data are stored at OPENDAP Server in netCDF format. To search, process and visualize it the php and python scripts were developed. Data visualization is achieved through Mapserver. The BYTHOS forecast access interface allows to search necessary forecasting field by recognizing type, parameter, region, level and time. Also it provides opportunity to overlay different forecast and observing data that can be used for complex analyze of sea basin aspects.

  19. Combining forecast weights: Why and how?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Yip Chee; Kok-Haur, Ng; Hock-Eam, Lim

    2012-09-01

    This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions, forecast weight averaging can lower the mean squared forecast error obtained from model averaging. In addition, we show that in a linear and homoskedastic environment, this superior predictive ability of forecast weight averaging holds true irrespective whether the coefficients are tested by t statistic or z statistic provided the significant level is within the 10% range. By theoretical proofs and simulation study, we have shown that model averaging like, variance model averaging, simple model averaging and standard error model averaging, each produces mean squared forecast error larger than that of forecast weight averaging. Finally, this result also holds true marginally when applied to business and economic empirical data sets, Gross Domestic Product (GDP growth rate), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Average Lending Rate (ALR) of Malaysia.

  20. The Economic Value of Air Quality Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson-Sumo, Tasha

    Both long-term and daily air quality forecasts provide an essential component to human health and impact costs. According the American Lung Association, the estimated current annual cost of air pollution related illness in the United States, adjusted for inflation (3% per year), is approximately $152 billion. Many of the risks such as hospital visits and morality are associated with poor air quality days (where the Air Quality Index is greater than 100). Groups such as sensitive groups become more susceptible to the resulting conditions and more accurate forecasts would help to take more appropriate precautions. This research focuses on evaluating the utility of air quality forecasting in terms of its potential impacts by building on air quality forecasting and economical metrics. Our analysis includes data collected during the summertime ozone seasons between 2010 and 2012 from air quality models for the Washington, DC/Baltimore, MD region. The metrics that are relevant to our analysis include: (1) The number of times that a high ozone or particulate matter (PM) episode is correctly forecasted, (2) the number of times that high ozone or PM episode is forecasted when it does not occur and (3) the number of times when the air quality forecast predicts a cleaner air episode when the air was observed to have high ozone or PM. Our collection of data included available air quality model forecasts of ozone and particulate matter data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s AIRNOW as well as observational data of ozone and particulate matter from Clean Air Partners. We evaluated the performance of the air quality forecasts with that of the observational data and found that the forecast models perform well for the Baltimore/Washington region and the time interval observed. We estimate the potential amount for the Baltimore/Washington region accrues to a savings of up to 5,905 lives and 5.9 billion dollars per year. This total assumes perfect compliance with

  1. Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

    1981-07-01

    Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

  2. Wheat yield forecasts using LANDSAT data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colwell, J. E.; Rice, D. P.; Nalepka, R. F.

    1977-01-01

    Several considerations of winter wheat yield prediction using LANDSAT data were discussed. In addition, a simple technique which permits direct early season forecasts of wheat production was described.

  3. Directory of Energy Information Administration models, 1990

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1990-06-04

    This directory revises and updates the Directory of Energy Information Administration Models, DOE/EIA-0293(89), Energy Information Administration (EIA), US Department of Energy, May 1989. The major changes are the inclusion of the Building Energy End-Use Model (BEEM-PC), Residential Energy End-Use Model (REEM-PC), the Refinery Yield Model Spreadsheet System (RYMSS-PC), and the Capital Stock Model (CAPSTOCK-PC). Also, the following models have been inactivated: Energy Disaggregated Input-Output Model (EDIO), Household Model of Energy (HOME3-PC), Commercial Sector Energy Model (CSEM-PC), Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Supply Model (OCSM), and the Stock Module of the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (STOCK). This directory contains descriptions about each basic and auxiliary model, including the title, acronym, purpose, and type, followed by more detailed information on characteristics, uses, and requirements. For developing models, limited information is provided. Sources for additional information are identified. Included in this directory are 38 EIA models active as of March 1, 1990, as well as the PC-AEO Forecasting Model Overview and the three Subsystems for the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) Model. Models that run on personal computers are identified by PC'' as part of the acronym.

  4. Mental Models of Software Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hihn, J.; Griesel, A.; Bruno, K.; Fouser, T.; Tausworthe, R.

    1993-01-01

    The majority of software engineers resist the use of the currently available cost models. One problem is that the mathematical and statistical models that are currently available do not correspond with the mental models of the software engineers. In an earlier JPL funded study (Hihn and Habib-agahi, 1991) it was found that software engineers prefer to use analogical or analogy-like techniques to derive size and cost estimates, whereas curren CER's hide any analogy in the regression equations. In addition, the currently available models depend upon information which is not available during early planning when the most important forecasts must be made.

  5. National Severe Storms Forecast Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    The principal mission of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC) is to maintain a continuous watch of weather developments that are capable of producing severe local storms, including tornadoes, and to prepare and issue messages designated as either Weather Outlooks or Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Watches for dissemination to the public and aviation services. In addition to its assigned responsibility at the national level, the NSSFC is involved in a number of programs at the regional and local levels. Subsequent subsections and paragraphs describe the NSSFC, its users, inputs, outputs, interfaces, capabilities, workload, problem areas, and future plans in more detail.

  6. Forecast Mekong: navigating changing waters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Powell, Janine

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is using research and data from the Mekong River Delta in Southeast Asia to compare restoration, conservation, and management efforts there with those done in other major river deltas, such as the Mississippi River Delta in the United States. The project provides a forum to engage regional partners in the Mekong Basin countries to share data and support local research efforts. Ultimately, Forecast Mekong will lead to more informed decisions about how to make the Mekong and Mississippi Deltas resilient in the face of climate change, economic stresses, and other impacts.

  7. Earthquake Scaling, Simulation and Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sachs, Michael Karl

    Earthquakes are among the most devastating natural events faced by society. In 2011, just two events, the magnitude 6.3 earthquake in Christcurch New Zealand on February 22, and the magnitude 9.0 Tohoku earthquake off the coast of Japan on March 11, caused a combined total of $226 billion in economic losses. Over the last decade, 791,721 deaths were caused by earthquakes. Yet, despite their impact, our ability to accurately predict when earthquakes will occur is limited. This is due, in large part, to the fact that the fault systems that produce earthquakes are non-linear. The result being that very small differences in the systems now result in very big differences in the future, making forecasting difficult. In spite of this, there are patterns that exist in earthquake data. These patterns are often in the form of frequency-magnitude scaling relations that relate the number of smaller events observed to the number of larger events observed. In many cases these scaling relations show consistent behavior over a wide range of scales. This consistency forms the basis of most forecasting techniques. However, the utility of these scaling relations is limited by the size of the earthquake catalogs which, especially in the case of large events, are fairly small and limited to a few 100 years of events. In this dissertation I discuss three areas of earthquake science. The first is an overview of scaling behavior in a variety of complex systems, both models and natural systems. The focus of this area is to understand how this scaling behavior breaks down. The second is a description of the development and testing of an earthquake simulator called Virtual California designed to extend the observed catalog of earthquakes in California. This simulator uses novel techniques borrowed from statistical physics to enable the modeling of large fault systems over long periods of time. The third is an evaluation of existing earthquake forecasts, which focuses on the Regional

  8. Numerical air quality forecasting over eastern China: An operational application of WRF-Chem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Guangqiang; Xu, Jianming; Xie, Ying; Chang, Luyu; Gao, Wei; Gu, Yixuan; Zhou, Ji

    2017-03-01

    The Regional Atmospheric Environmental Modeling System for eastern China (RAEMS) is an operational numerical system to forecast near surface atmospheric pollutants such as PM2.5 and O3 over the eastern China region. This system was based on the fully online coupled weather research and forecasting/chemistry (WRF-Chem) model. Anthropogenic emissions were based on the multi-resolution emission inventory for China (MEIC), and biogenic emissions were online calculated using model of emissions of gases and aerosols from nature (MEGAN2). Authorized by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), this system started to provide operational forecast in 2013. With a large domain covering eastern China, the system produces daily 72-hr forecast. In this work, a comprehensive evaluation was carried out against measurements for two full years (2014-2015). Evaluation results show that the RAEMS is skillful in forecasting temporal variation and spatial distribution of major air pollutants over the eastern China region. The performance is consistent in different forecast length of 24 h, 48 h, and 72 h. About half of cities have correlation coefficients greater than 0.6 for PM2.5 and 0.7 for daily maximum 8-h averaged (DM8H) ozone. The forecasted PM2.5 is generally in good agreement with observed concentrations, with most cities having normalized mean biases (NMB) within ±25%. Forecasted ozone diurnal variation is very similar to that of observed, and makes small peak time error for DM8H ozone. It also shows good capability in capturing ozone pollution as indicated by high critical success indexes (CSI). The modeling system also exhibits acceptable performance for PM10, NO2, SO2, and CO. Meanwhile, degraded performance for PM2.5 is found under heavy polluted conditions, and there is a general over estimation in ozone concentrations.

  9. Conditional Monthly Weather Resampling Procedure for Operational Seasonal Water Resources Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beckers, J.; Weerts, A.; Tijdeman, E.; Welles, E.; McManamon, A.

    2013-12-01

    To provide reliable and accurate seasonal streamflow forecasts for water resources management several operational hydrologic agencies and hydropower companies around the world use the Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) procedure. The ESP in its original implementation does not accommodate for any additional information that the forecaster may have about expected deviations from climatology in the near future. Several attempts have been conducted to improve the skill of the ESP forecast, especially for areas which are affected by teleconnetions (e,g. ENSO, PDO) via selection (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 1999) or weighting schemes (Werner et al., 2004; Wood and Lettenmaier, 2006; Najafi et al., 2012). A disadvantage of such schemes is that they lead to a reduction of the signal to noise ratio of the probabilistic forecast. To overcome this, we propose a resampling method conditional on climate indices to generate meteorological time series to be used in the ESP. The method can be used to generate a large number of meteorological ensemble members in order to improve the statistical properties of the ensemble. The effectiveness of the method was demonstrated in a real-time operational hydrologic seasonal forecasts system for the Columbia River basin operated by the Bonneville Power Administration. The forecast skill of the k-nn resampler was tested against the original ESP for three basins at the long-range seasonal time scale. The BSS and CRPSS were used to compare the results to those of the original ESP method. Positive forecast skill scores were found for the resampler method conditioned on different indices for the prediction of spring peak flows in the Dworshak and Hungry Horse basin. For the Libby Dam basin however, no improvement of skill was found. The proposed resampling method is a promising practical approach that can add skill to ESP forecasts at the seasonal time scale. Further improvement is possible by fine tuning the method and selecting the most

  10. Verification of Advances in a Coupled Snow-runoff Modeling Framework for Operational Streamflow Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barik, M. G.; Hogue, T. S.; Franz, K. J.; He, M.

    2011-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) issue hydrologic forecasts related to flood events, reservoir operations for water supply, streamflow regulation, and recreation on the nation's streams and rivers. The RFCs use the National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) for streamflow forecasting which relies on a coupled snow model (i.e. SNOW17) and rainfall-runoff model (i.e. SAC-SMA) in snow-dominated regions of the US. Errors arise in various steps of the forecasting system from input data, model structure, model parameters, and initial states. The goal of the current study is to undertake verification of potential improvements in the SNOW17-SAC-SMA modeling framework developed for operational streamflow forecasts. We undertake verification for a range of parameters sets (i.e. RFC, DREAM (Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis)) as well as a data assimilation (DA) framework developed for the coupled models. Verification is also undertaken for various initial conditions to observe the influence of variability in initial conditions on the forecast. The study basin is the North Fork America River Basin (NFARB) located on the western side of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in northern California. Hindcasts are verified using both deterministic (i.e. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency, root mean square error, and joint distribution) and probabilistic (i.e. reliability diagram, discrimination diagram, containing ratio, and Quantile plots) statistics. Our presentation includes comparison of the performance of different optimized parameters and the DA framework as well as assessment of the impact associated with the initial conditions used for streamflow forecasts for the NFARB.

  11. Creating a Standard Set of Metrics to Assess Accuracy of Solar Forecasts: Preliminary Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banunarayanan, V.; Brockway, A.; Marquis, M.; Haupt, S. E.; Brown, B.; Fowler, T.; Jensen, T.; Hamann, H.; Lu, S.; Hodge, B.; Zhang, J.; Florita, A.

    2013-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) SunShot Initiative, launched in 2011, seeks to reduce the cost of solar energy systems by 75% from 2010 to 2020. In support of the SunShot Initiative, the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) is partnering with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and solar energy stakeholders to improve solar forecasting. Through a funding opportunity announcement issued in the April, 2012, DOE is funding two teams - led by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and by IBM - to perform three key activities in order to improve solar forecasts. The teams will: (1) With DOE and NOAA's leadership and significant stakeholder input, develop a standardized set of metrics to evaluate forecast accuracy, and determine the baseline and target values for these metrics; (2) Conduct research that yields a transformational improvement in weather models and methods for forecasting solar irradiance and power; and (3) Incorporate solar forecasts into the system operations of the electric power grid, and evaluate the impact of forecast accuracy on the economics and reliability of operations using the defined, standard metrics. This paper will present preliminary results on the first activity: the development of a standardized set of metrics, baselines and target values. The results will include a proposed framework for metrics development, key categories of metrics, descriptions of each of the proposed set of specific metrics to measure forecast accuracy, feedback gathered from a range of stakeholders on the metrics, and processes to determine baselines and target values for each metric. The paper will also analyze the temporal and spatial resolutions under which these metrics would apply, and conclude with a summary of the work in progress on solar forecasting activities funded by DOE.

  12. Forecasting Influenza Epidemics in Hong Kong.

    PubMed

    Yang, Wan; Cowling, Benjamin J; Lau, Eric H Y; Shaman, Jeffrey

    2015-07-01

    Recent advances in mathematical modeling and inference methodologies have enabled development of systems capable of forecasting seasonal influenza epidemics in temperate regions in real-time. However, in subtropical and tropical regions, influenza epidemics can occur throughout the year, making routine forecast of influenza more challenging. Here we develop and report forecast systems that are able to predict irregular non-seasonal influenza epidemics, using either the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter or a modified particle filter in conjunction with a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. We applied these model-filter systems to retrospectively forecast influenza epidemics in Hong Kong from January 1998 to December 2013, including the 2009 pandemic. The forecast systems were able to forecast both the peak timing and peak magnitude for 44 epidemics in 16 years caused by individual influenza strains (i.e., seasonal influenza A(H1N1), pandemic A(H1N1), A(H3N2), and B), as well as 19 aggregate epidemics caused by one or more of these influenza strains. Average forecast accuracies were 37% (for both peak timing and magnitude) at 1-3 week leads, and 51% (peak timing) and 50% (peak magnitude) at 0 lead. Forecast accuracy increased as the spread of a given forecast ensemble decreased; the forecast accuracy for peak timing (peak magnitude) increased up to 43% (45%) for H1N1, 93% (89%) for H3N2, and 53% (68%) for influenza B at 1-3 week leads. These findings suggest that accurate forecasts can be made at least 3 weeks in advance for subtropical and tropical regions.

  13. Modeled Forecasts of Dengue Fever in San Juan, Puerto Rico Using NASA Satellite Enhanced Weather Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morin, C.; Quattrochi, D. A.; Zavodsky, B.; Case, J.

    2015-12-01

    Dengue fever (DF) is an important mosquito transmitted disease that is strongly influenced by meteorological and environmental conditions. Recent research has focused on forecasting DF case numbers based on meteorological data. However, these forecasting tools have generally relied on empirical models that require long DF time series to train. Additionally, their accuracy has been tested retrospectively, using past meteorological data. Consequently, the operational utility of the forecasts are still in question because the error associated with weather and climate forecasts are not reflected in the results. Using up-to-date weekly dengue case numbers for model parameterization and weather forecast data as meteorological input, we produced weekly forecasts of DF cases in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Each week, the past weeks' case counts were used to re-parameterize a process-based DF model driven with updated weather forecast data to generate forecasts of DF case numbers. Real-time weather forecast data was produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) system enhanced using additional high-resolution NASA satellite data. This methodology was conducted in a weekly iterative process with each DF forecast being evaluated using county-level DF cases reported by the Puerto Rico Department of Health. The one week DF forecasts were accurate especially considering the two sources of model error. First, weather forecasts were sometimes inaccurate and generally produced lower than observed temperatures. Second, the DF model was often overly influenced by the previous weeks DF case numbers, though this phenomenon could be lessened by increasing the number of simulations included in the forecast. Although these results are promising, we would like to develop a methodology to produce longer range forecasts so that public health workers can better prepare for dengue epidemics.

  14. [Population forecasts for the Netherlands, 1986-2035].

    PubMed

    Cruijsen, H

    1987-02-01

    Results of the 1986 official population forecasts for the Netherlands are presented, and the assumptions made in their preparation are described. Comparisons are made with forecasts for 1985. Three alternative variations of the forecasts are included. (SUMMARY IN ENG)

  15. 48 CFR 232.072-3 - Cash flow forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... problems. (c) Single or one-time cash flow forecasts are of limited forecasting power. As such, they should... by comparing a series of previous actual cash flows with the corresponding forecasts and...

  16. Remotely Operated Aircraft (ROA) Impact on the National Airspace System (NAS) Work Package, 2005: Composite Report on FAA Flight Plan and Operational Evaluation Plan. Version 7.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this document is to present the findings that resulted from a high-level analysis and evaluation of the following documents: (1) The OEP (Operational Evolution Plan) Version 7 -- a 10-year plan for operational improvements to increase capacity and efficiency in U.S. air travel and transport and other use of domestic airspace. The OEP is the FAA commitment to operational improvements. It is outcome driven, with clear lines of accountability within FAA organizations. The OEP concentrates on operational solutions and integrates safety, certification, procedures, staffing, equipment, avionics and research; (2) The Draft Flight Plan 2006 through 2010 -- a multi-year strategic effort, setting a course for the FAA through 2001, to provide the safest and most efficient air transportation system in the world; (3) The NAS System Architecture Version 5 -- a blueprint for modernizing the NAS and improving NAS services and capabilities through the year 2015; and (4) The NAS-SR-1000 System Requirements Specification (NASSRS) -- a compilation of requirements which describe the operational capabilities for the NAS. The analysis is particularly focused on examining the documents for relevance to existing and/or planned future UAV operations. The evaluation specifically focuses on potential factors that could materially affect the development of a commercial ROA industry, such as: (1) Design limitations of the CNS/ATM system, (2) Human limitations, The information presented was taken from program specifications or program office lead personnel.

  17. Rapid and simultaneous determination of essential minerals and trace elements in human milk by improved flame atomic absorption spectroscopy (FAAS) with microwave digestion.

    PubMed

    Luo, Yang; Zhang, Bo; Chen, Ming; Wang, Jue; Zhang, Xue; Gao, Wei-Yin; Huang, Jun-Fu; Fu, Wei-Ling

    2010-09-08

    A method for the simultaneous and economical determination of many trace elements in human milk is developed. Two multi-element hollow cathode lamps (HCLs) were used instead of single-element HCLs to improve the sample throughput of flame atomic absorption spectroscopy (FAAS). The microwave digestion of milk is optimized prior to detection, and the performance characteristics of the improved analysis method are identified. Clinical samples are detected by both FAAS and inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES) for methodology evaluation. Results reveal that the proposed FAAS with multi-element HCLs could determine six essential minerals and trace elements within 15 min. This method provides a linear analytical range of 0.01-10 mg L(-1). For Ca, Cu, Fe, Mg, Mn, and Zn, the limits of determination are 1.5, 3, 1.8, 2.2, 2.1, and 1.3 microg L(-1), respectively. The mean relative standard deviations (RSDs) of intra- and interassays are lower than 7%. Excellent operational characteristics of rapidity, simplicity, and economy make the proposed method a promising one for the quantification of trace elements in human milk in clinics of underdeveloped areas.

  18. Streamflow forecasting using functional regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masselot, Pierre; Dabo-Niang, Sophie; Chebana, Fateh; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.

    2016-07-01

    Streamflow, as a natural phenomenon, is continuous in time and so are the meteorological variables which influence its variability. In practice, it can be of interest to forecast the whole flow curve instead of points (daily or hourly). To this end, this paper introduces the functional linear models and adapts it to hydrological forecasting. More precisely, functional linear models are regression models based on curves instead of single values. They allow to consider the whole process instead of a limited number of time points or features. We apply these models to analyse the flow volume and the whole streamflow curve during a given period by using precipitations curves. The functional model is shown to lead to encouraging results. The potential of functional linear models to detect special features that would have been hard to see otherwise is pointed out. The functional model is also compared to the artificial neural network approach and the advantages and disadvantages of both models are discussed. Finally, future research directions involving the functional model in hydrology are presented.

  19. Phantosmia as a meteorological forecaster

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aiello, S. R.; Hirsch, A. R.

    2013-09-01

    In normosmics, olfactory ability has been found to vary with ambient humidity, barometric pressure, and season. While hallucinated sensations of phantom pain associated with changes in weather have been described, a linkage to chemosensory hallucinations has heretofore not been reported. A 64-year-old white male with Parkinson's disease presents with 5 years of phantosmia of a smoky burnt wood which changed to onion-gas and then to a noxious skunk-onion excrement odor. Absent upon waking it increases over the day and persists for hours. When severe, there appears a phantom taste with the same qualities as the odor. It is exacerbated by factors that manipulate intranasal pressure, such as coughing. When eating or sniffing, the actual flavors replace the phantosmia. Since onset, he noted the intensity and frequency of the phantosmia forecasted the weather. Two to 3 h before a storm, the phantosmia intensifies from a level 0 to a 7-10, which persists through the entire thunderstorm. Twenty years prior, he reported the ability to forecast the weather, based on pain in a torn meniscus, which vanished after surgical repair. Extensive olfactory testing demonstrates underlying hyposmia. Possible mechanisms for such chemosensory-meteorological linkage includes: air pressure induced synesthesia, disinhibition of spontaneous olfactory discharge, exacerbation of ectopic discharge, affect mediated somatic sensory amplification, and misattribution error with expectation and recall bias. This is the first reported case of weather-induced exacerbation of phantosmia. Further investigation of the connection between chemosensory complaints and ambient weather is warranted.

  20. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  1. Chesapeake Bay hypoxic volume forecasts and results

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scavia, Donald; Evans, Mary Anne

    2013-01-01

    The 2013 Forecast - Given the average Jan-May 2013 total nitrogen load of 162,028 kg/day, this summer’s hypoxia volume forecast is 6.1 km3, slightly smaller than average size for the period of record and almost the same as 2012. The late July 2013 measured volume was 6.92 km3.

  2. Methods and Techniques of Revenue Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Caruthers, J. Kent; Wentworth, Cathi L.

    1997-01-01

    Revenue forecasting is the critical first step in most college and university budget-planning processes. While it seems a straightforward exercise, effective forecasting requires consideration of a number of interacting internal and external variables, including demographic trends, economic conditions, and broad social priorities. The challenge…

  3. Toward a Marine Ecological Forecasting System

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-06-01

    coral bleaching , living resource distribution, and pathogen progression). An operational ecological forecasting system depends upon the assimilation of...space scales (e.g., harmful algal blooms, dissolved oxygen concentration (hypoxia), water quality/beach closures, coral bleaching , living resource...advance. Two beaches in Lake Michigan have been selected for initial implementation. Forecasting Coral Bleaching in relation to Ocean Temperatures

  4. Climate forecasts for corn producer decision making

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Corn is the most widely grown crop in the Americas, with annual production in the United States of approximately 332 million metric tons. Improved climate forecasts, together with climate-related decision tools for corn producers based on these improved forecasts, could substantially reduce uncertai...

  5. Analog forecasting with dynamics-adapted kernels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Zhizhen; Giannakis, Dimitrios

    2016-09-01

    Analog forecasting is a nonparametric technique introduced by Lorenz in 1969 which predicts the evolution of states of a dynamical system (or observables defined on the states) by following the evolution of the sample in a historical record of observations which most closely resembles the current initial data. Here, we introduce a suite of forecasting methods which improve traditional analog forecasting by combining ideas from kernel methods developed in harmonic analysis and machine learning and state-space reconstruction for dynamical systems. A key ingredient of our approach is to replace single-analog forecasting with weighted ensembles of analogs constructed using local similarity kernels. The kernels used here employ a number of dynamics-dependent features designed to improve forecast skill, including Takens’ delay-coordinate maps (to recover information in the initial data lost through partial observations) and a directional dependence on the dynamical vector field generating the data. Mathematically, our approach is closely related to kernel methods for out-of-sample extension of functions, and we discuss alternative strategies based on the Nyström method and the multiscale Laplacian pyramids technique. We illustrate these techniques in applications to forecasting in a low-order deterministic model for atmospheric dynamics with chaotic metastability, and interannual-scale forecasting in the North Pacific sector of a comprehensive climate model. We find that forecasts based on kernel-weighted ensembles have significantly higher skill than the conventional approach following a single analog.

  6. Techniques for Forecasting Air Passenger Traffic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taneja, N.

    1972-01-01

    The basic techniques of forecasting the air passenger traffic are outlined. These techniques can be broadly classified into four categories: judgmental, time-series analysis, market analysis and analytical. The differences between these methods exist, in part, due to the degree of formalization of the forecasting procedure. Emphasis is placed on describing the analytical method.

  7. Forecasting Enrollments with Fuzzy Time Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Song, Qiang; Chissom, Brad S.

    The concept of fuzzy time series is introduced and used to forecast the enrollment of a university. Fuzzy time series, an aspect of fuzzy set theory, forecasts enrollment using a first-order time-invariant model. To evaluate the model, the conventional linear regression technique is applied and the predicted values obtained are compared to the…

  8. Why preferring parametric forecasting to nonparametric methods?

    PubMed

    Jabot, Franck

    2015-05-07

    A recent series of papers by Charles T. Perretti and collaborators have shown that nonparametric forecasting methods can outperform parametric methods in noisy nonlinear systems. Such a situation can arise because of two main reasons: the instability of parametric inference procedures in chaotic systems which can lead to biased parameter estimates, and the discrepancy between the real system dynamics and the modeled one, a problem that Perretti and collaborators call "the true model myth". Should ecologists go on using the demanding parametric machinery when trying to forecast the dynamics of complex ecosystems? Or should they rely on the elegant nonparametric approach that appears so promising? It will be here argued that ecological forecasting based on parametric models presents two key comparative advantages over nonparametric approaches. First, the likelihood of parametric forecasting failure can be diagnosed thanks to simple Bayesian model checking procedures. Second, when parametric forecasting is diagnosed to be reliable, forecasting uncertainty can be estimated on virtual data generated with the fitted to data parametric model. In contrast, nonparametric techniques provide forecasts with unknown reliability. This argumentation is illustrated with the simple theta-logistic model that was previously used by Perretti and collaborators to make their point. It should convince ecologists to stick to standard parametric approaches, until methods have been developed to assess the reliability of nonparametric forecasting.

  9. Kp Forecast Model Using Unscented Kalman Filtering

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-09-01

    a simple persistence model that forecasts the next 3-hr value as being equal to the current value shows a linear correlation coefficient of r = 0.797... correlation coefficient and the RMSE between the forecast value and the actual value. A new skill score that assesses how well the model predicts the

  10. Forecaster: Mass and radii of planets predictor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Jingjing; Kipping, David

    2017-01-01

    Forecaster predicts the mass (or radius) from the radius (or mass) for objects covering nine orders-of-magnitude in mass. It is an unbiased forecasting model built upon a probabilistic mass-radius relation conditioned on a sample of 316 well-constrained objects. It accounts for observational errors, hyper-parameter uncertainties and the intrinsic dispersions observed in the calibration sample.

  11. Occupational Forecasting of Librarians in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stall, Roy

    This paper reviews the principal sources and methods used by the Manpower Research and Information Branches of the Department of Employment and Industrial Relations (DEIR) to forecast the over or undersupply of librarians in Australia. After differentiating between manpower policy, planning, and forecasting, the role of the commonwealth government…

  12. Forecast of geothermal-drilling activity

    SciTech Connect

    Mansure, A.J.; Brown, G.L.

    1982-07-01

    The number of geothermal wells that will be drilled to support electric power production in the United States through 2000 A.D. are forecasted. Results of the forecast are presented by 5-year periods for the five most significant geothermal resources.

  13. School Science Inspired by Improving Weather Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reid, Heather; Renfrew, Ian A.; Vaughan, Geraint

    2014-01-01

    High winds and heavy rain are regular features of the British weather, and forecasting these events accurately is a major priority for the Met Office and other forecast providers. This is the challenge facing DIAMET, a project involving university groups from Manchester, Leeds, Reading, and East Anglia, together with the Met Office. DIAMET is part…

  14. Forecasting Workload for Defense Logistics Agency Distribution

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-12-01

    NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA MBA PROFESSIONAL REPORT FORECASTING WORKLOAD FOR DEFENSE LOGISTICS AGENCY...DATE December 2014 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED MBA Professional Report 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE FORECASTING WORKLOAD FOR DEFENSE LOGISTICS ...maximum 200 words) The Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) predicts issue and receipt workload for its distribution agency in order to maintain

  15. Resources and Long-Range Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Waldo E.

    1973-01-01

    The author argues that forecasts of quick depletion of resources in the environment as a result of overpopulation and increased usage may not be free from error. Ignorance still exists in understanding the recovery mechanisms of nature. Long-range forecasts are likely to be wrong in such situations. (PS)

  16. Econometric Models for Forecasting of Macroeconomic Indices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sukhanova, Elena I.; Shirnaeva, Svetlana Y.; Mokronosov, Aleksandr G.

    2016-01-01

    The urgency of the research topic was stipulated by the necessity to carry out an effective controlled process by the economic system which can hardly be imagined without indices forecasting characteristic of this system. An econometric model is a safe tool of forecasting which makes it possible to take into consideration the trend of indices…

  17. Some Initiatives in a Business Forecasting Course

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chu, Singfat

    2007-01-01

    The paper reports some initiatives to freshen up the typical undergraduate business forecasting course. These include (1) students doing research and presentations on contemporary tools and industry practices such as neural networks and collaborative forecasting (2) insertion of Logistic Regression in the curriculum (3) productive use of applets…

  18. Flood Forecasting in Wales: Challenges and Solutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    How, Andrew; Williams, Christopher

    2015-04-01

    With steep, fast-responding river catchments, exposed coastal reaches with large tidal ranges and large population densities in some of the most at-risk areas; flood forecasting in Wales presents many varied challenges. Utilising advances in computing power and learning from best practice within the United Kingdom and abroad have seen significant improvements in recent years - however, many challenges still remain. Developments in computing and increased processing power comes with a significant price tag; greater numbers of data sources and ensemble feeds brings a better understanding of uncertainty but the wealth of data needs careful management to ensure a clear message of risk is disseminated; new modelling techniques utilise better and faster computation, but lack the history of record and experience gained from the continued use of more established forecasting models. As a flood forecasting team we work to develop coastal and fluvial forecasting models, set them up for operational use and manage the duty role that runs the models in real time. An overview of our current operational flood forecasting system will be presented, along with a discussion on some of the solutions we have in place to address the challenges we face. These include: • real-time updating of fluvial models • rainfall forecasting verification • ensemble forecast data • longer range forecast data • contingency models • offshore to nearshore wave transformation • calculation of wave overtopping

  19. Evaluation and first forecasts of the German Climate Forecast System 1 (GCFS1)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fröhlich, Kristina; Baehr, Johanna; Müller, Wolfgang; Bunzel, Felix; Pohlmann, Holger; Dobrynin, Mikhail

    2016-04-01

    We present the near-operational seasonal forecast system GCFS1 (German Climate Forecast System version 1), based on the CMIP5 version of the global coupled climate model MPI-ESM-LR. For GCFS1 we also present a detailed assessment on the predictive skill of the model. GCFS1 has been developed in cooperation between the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, University of Hamburg and German Meteorological Service (DWD), the forecasts are conducted by DWD. The system is running at ECMWF with a re-forecast ensemble of 15 member and a forecast ensemble of 30 member. The re-forecasts are initialised with full field nudging in the atmosphere (using ERA Interim), in the ocean (using ORAS4) and in the sea-ice component (using NSIDC sea-ice concentration). For the initialization of the forecasts analyses from the ECMWF NWP model and recent ORAS4 analyses are taken. The ensemble perturbations are, for both re-forecasts and forecasts, generated through bred vectors in the ocean which provide initial perturbations for the ensemble in combination with simple physics perturbations in the atmosphere. Evaluation of the re-forecasted climatologies will be presented for different variables, start dates and regions. The first winter forecast during the strong El Niño phase is also subject of evaluation.

  20. FAA Air Traffic Activity

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-09-01

    0 MILLVILLE ........................................................................ (MIV) NJ 362 0 20 334 8 NEW FIELD...FIELD ................. AR FSS 92 69119 MILLVILLE ...................................................... NJ AFSS 13 717741 BOZEMAN...NM FSS 158 580 MILLVILLE ..... .. ... ......................... NJ AFSS 79 6920 GULKANA ... .......... .... .............. AK FSS 159 554

  1. Demand forecast model based on CRM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Yuancui; Chen, Lichao

    2006-11-01

    With interiorizing day by day management thought that regarding customer as the centre, forecasting customer demand becomes more and more important. In the demand forecast of customer relationship management, the traditional forecast methods have very great limitation because much uncertainty of the demand, these all require new modeling to meet the demands of development. In this paper, the notion is that forecasting the demand according to characteristics of the potential customer, then modeling by it. The model first depicts customer adopting uniform multiple indexes. Secondly, the model acquires characteristic customers on the basis of data warehouse and the technology of data mining. The last, there get the most similar characteristic customer by their comparing and forecast the demands of new customer by the most similar characteristic customer.

  2. Forecasting the Chilean Tsunami, February 27 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sterling, K.; Knight, W.; Whitmore, P.

    2010-12-01

    The West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WC/ATWC) is responsible for issuing tsunami warnings, advisories, and watches for the United States and Canadian coastlines. Utilizing well defined criteria related to earthquake magnitude and location an initial alert message is transmitted. The situation is monitored closely and analyzed using forecast models and real-time sea level observations. If a tsunami is detected then a tsunami warning, advisory, or watch is issued. On February 27, 2010 at 06:34:14 UTC, a M8.8 earthquake occurred off the coast of Maule, Chile, initiating a tsunami that propagated throughout the Pacific Ocean. With approximately 13 hours before the tsunami arrived on the US west coast, the WC/ATWC utilized all available forecasting tools to refine predicted tsunami amplitudes and inundation estimates, thereby providing the best possible estimates to emergency managers and the public. The guidance from the tsunami forecast models, used in concurrence with sea-level observations, resulted in a tsunami advisory being issued for the Pacific coastal regions of the United States and Canada, the extent of which was expanded and then decreased as the event evolved. The WC/ATWC used two tsunami forecast models: the Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model (ATFM) and the Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis (SIFT) to formulate a solution. Each model provided an initial tsunami forecast based on the earthquake magnitude and location that was subsequently refined over the following hours as Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) observations became available. After the DART data was assimilated into the models, the two forecasts were used in conjunction to publicly issue predicted maximum amplitudes for 77 locations along the US west coast and in Alaska. As the tsunami reached the US coastline, tide gauge observations were used in scaling the forecasted maximum amplitudes from the ATFM, thereby increasing the forecast accuracy

  3. Waves Forecasters in World War II (with a Brief Survey of Other Women Meteorologists in World War II).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewis, J. M.

    1995-11-01

    Out of the nearly 6000 U.S. military officers who were trained to be weather forecasters during World War II, there wore approximately 100 women. They were recruited into the Women Accepted for Volunteer Emergency Service (WAVES) by the U.S. Navy and underwent training with the military men in the so-called cadet program. Letters of reminiscence from six WAVES forecasters are combined with official navy correspondence, archival information from universities, and newspaper articles of the period to reconstruct the recruitment, training, duty assignments, and postwar careers of these women.With limited information, an effort has also been made to document the training of civilian women in the cadet program, and to estimate the number of women who served as forecasters in foreign countries during the war. The status of women in meteorology prior to the United States' entry into the war is examined as a backdrop to the study. Principal results of the study are as follows:1) The recruitment of WAVES forecasters was in response to extreme shortages of weather officers at the Naval Air Stations (NAS) in early 1943 as the war escalated.2) Those recruited to be WAVES forecasters had previous experience as math/science teachers and had a lower than average attrition rate in the demanding cadet program.3) The WAVES were assigned as NAS forecasters stateside, and there is some evidence that they were differentially treated in comparison to the male naval forecasters.4) In addition to the women forecasters in the WAVES, approximately 50 civilian women were trained in the cadet program under the sponsorship of the Civilian Aeronautics Administration and the U.S. Weather Bureau; England also recruited an estimated 50 women into weather forecasting during the latter stages of WWII.5) Of the 200 women who were trained to be forecasters, it is estimated that less than 10% remained in meteorology.

  4. Wind speed forecasting for wind energy applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Hong

    With more wind energy being integrated into our grid systems, forecasting wind energy has become a necessity for all market participants. Recognizing the market demands, a physical approach to site-specific hub-height wind speed forecasting system has been developed. This system is driven by the outputs from the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. A simple interpolation approach benchmarks the forecasting accuracy inherited from GEM. Local, site specific winds are affected on a local scale by a variety of factors including representation of the land surface and local boundary-layer process over heterogeneous terrain which have been a continuing challenge in NWP models like GEM with typical horizontal resolution of order 15-km. In order to resolve these small scale effects, a wind energy industry standard model, WAsP, is coupled with GEM to improve the forecast. Coupling the WAsP model with GEM improves the overall forecasts, but remains unsatisfactory for forecasting winds with abrupt surface condition changes. Subsequently in this study, a new coupler that uses a 2-D RANS model of boundary-layer flow over surface condition changes with improved physics has been developed to further improve the forecasts when winds coming from a water surface to land experience abrupt changes in surface conditions. It has been demonstrated that using vertically averaged wind speeds to represent geostrophic winds for input into the micro-scale models could reduce forecast errors. The hub-height wind speed forecasts could be further improved using a linear MOS approach. The forecasting system has been evaluated, using a wind energy standard evaluation matrix, against data from an 80-m mast located near the north shore of Lake Erie. Coupling with GEM-LAM and a power conversion model using a theoretical power curve have also been investigated. For hub-height wind speeds GEM appears to perform better with a 15-Ian grid than the high resolution GEM-2.5Ian version at the

  5. 49 CFR 1540.115 - Threat assessments regarding citizens of the United States holding or applying for FAA...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY CIVIL AVIATION SECURITY CIVIL AVIATION SECURITY: GENERAL RULES... Federal Aviation Administration. Individual means an individual whom TSA determines poses a security... piracy or terrorism; (3) A threat to airline or passenger security; or (4) A threat to civil...

  6. Space Weather Forecasting: An Enigma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sojka, J. J.

    2012-12-01

    -pipe" disciplines. The perceived progress in space weather understanding differs significantly depending upon which community (scientific, technology, forecaster, society) is addressing the question. Even more divergent are these thoughts when the question is how valuable is the scientific capability of forecasting space weather. This talk will discuss present day as well as future potential for forecasting space weather for a few selected examples. The author will attempt to straddle the divergent community opinions.

  7. An Application of Markov Chains and a Monte-Carlo Simulation to Decision-Making Behavior of an Educational Administrator

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yoda, Koji

    1973-01-01

    Develops models to systematically forecast the tendency of an educational administrator in charge of personnel selection processes to shift from one decision strategy to another under generally stable environmental conditions. Urges further research on these processes by educational planners. (JF)

  8. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast. Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA's Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  9. Testing the Value of Probability Forecasts for Calibrated Combining

    PubMed Central

    Lahiri, Kajal; Peng, Huaming; Zhao, Yongchen

    2014-01-01

    We combine the probability forecasts of a real GDP decline from the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters, after trimming the forecasts that do not have “value”, as measured by the Kuiper Skill Score and in the sense of Merton (1981). For this purpose, we use a simple test to evaluate the probability forecasts. The proposed test does not require the probabilities to be converted to binary forecasts before testing, and it accommodates serial correlation and skewness in the forecasts. We find that the number of forecasters making valuable forecasts decreases sharply as the horizon increases. The beta-transformed linear pool combination scheme, based on the valuable individual forecasts, is shown to outperform the simple average for all horizons on a number of performance measures, including calibration and sharpness. The test helps to identify the good forecasters ex ante, and therefore contributes to the accuracy of the combined forecasts. PMID:25530646

  10. Construction Safety Forecast for ITER

    SciTech Connect

    cadwallader, lee charles

    2006-11-01

    The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project is poised to begin its construction activity. This paper gives an estimate of construction safety as if the experiment was being built in the United States. This estimate of construction injuries and potential fatalities serves as a useful forecast of what can be expected for construction of such a major facility in any country. These data should be considered by the ITER International Team as it plans for safety during the construction phase. Based on average U.S. construction rates, ITER may expect a lost workday case rate of < 4.0 and a fatality count of 0.5 to 0.9 persons per year.

  11. Clear air turbulence forecasting techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keller, J. L.

    1980-01-01

    A method to improve clear air turbulence (CAT) forecasting by more effectively using the currently operational rawinsonde (RW) system is discussed. The method is called the Diagnostic Richardson Number Tendency (DRT) technique. The technique does not attempt to use the RW as a direct detector of the turbulent motion or even of the CAT mechanism structure but rather senses the synoptic scale centers of action which provide the energy to the CAT mechanism at the mesoscale level. The DRT algorithm is deterministic rather than statistical in nature, using the hydrodynamic equations (equations of motion) relevant to the synoptic scale. However, interpretation, by necessity, is probabilistic. What is most important with respect to its operational implementation is that this method uses the same input data as currently used by the operational National Meteorological Center prognostic models.

  12. Decision support for financial forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Jairam, B.N.; Morris, J.D.; Emrich, M.L.; Hardee, H.K.

    1988-10-01

    A primary mission of the Budget Management Division of the Air Force is fiscal analysis. This involves formulating, justifying, and tracking financial data during budget preparation and execution. An essential requirement of this process is the ready availability and easy manipulation of past and current budget data. This necessitates the decentralization of the data. A prototypical system, BAFS (Budget Analysis and Forecasting System), that provides such a capability is presented. In its current state, the system is designed to be a decision support tool. A brief report of the budget decisions and activities is presented. The system structure and its major components are discussed. An insight into the implementation strategies and the tool used is provided. The paper concludes with a discussion of future enhancements and the system's evolution into an expert system. 4 refs., 3 figs.

  13. Real-time flood forecasting

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lai, C.; Tsay, T.-K.; Chien, C.-H.; Wu, I.-L.

    2009-01-01

    Researchers at the Hydroinformatic Research and Development Team (HIRDT) of the National Taiwan University undertook a project to create a real time flood forecasting model, with an aim to predict the current in the Tamsui River Basin. The model was designed based on deterministic approach with mathematic modeling of complex phenomenon, and specific parameter values operated to produce a discrete result. The project also devised a rainfall-stage model that relates the rate of rainfall upland directly to the change of the state of river, and is further related to another typhoon-rainfall model. The geographic information system (GIS) data, based on precise contour model of the terrain, estimate the regions that were perilous to flooding. The HIRDT, in response to the project's progress, also devoted their application of a deterministic model to unsteady flow of thermodynamics to help predict river authorities issue timely warnings and take other emergency measures.

  14. Uses and Applications of Climate Forecasts for Power Utilities.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Changnon, Stanley A.; Changnon, Joyce M.; Changnon, David

    1995-05-01

    The uses and potential applications of climate forecasts for electric and gas utilities were assessed 1) to discern needs for improving climate forecasts and guiding future research, and 2) to assist utilities in making wise use of forecasts. In-depth structured interviews were conducted with 56 decision makers in six utilities to assess existing and potential uses of climate forecasts. Only 3 of the 56 use forecasts. Eighty percent of those sampled envisioned applications of climate forecasts, given certain changes and additional information. Primary applications exist in power trading, load forecasting, fuel acquisition, and systems planning, with slight differences in interests between utilities. Utility staff understand probability-based forecasts but desire climatological information related to forecasted outcomes, including analogs similar to the forecasts, and explanations of the forecasts. Desired lead times vary from a week to three months, along with forecasts of up to four seasons ahead. The new NOAA forecasts initiated in 1995 provide the lead times and longer-term forecasts desired. Major hindrances to use of forecasts are hard-to-understand formats, lack of corporate acceptance, and lack of access to expertise. Recent changes in government regulations altered the utility industry, leading to a more competitive world wherein information about future weather conditions assumes much more value. Outreach efforts by government forecast agencies appear valuable to help achieve the appropriate and enhanced use of climate forecasts by the utility industry. An opportunity for service exists also for the private weather sector.

  15. MSSM forecast for the LHC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cabrera, Maria Eugenia; Casas, J. Alberto; de Austri, Roberto Ruiz

    2010-05-01

    We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of M Z is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on e + e - data) is considered, the preferred region (for μ > 0) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative- μ possibilities.

  16. Phantosmia as a meteorological forecaster.

    PubMed

    Aiello, S R; Hirsch, A R

    2013-09-01

    In normosmics, olfactory ability has been found to vary with ambient humidity, barometric pressure, and season. While hallucinated sensations of phantom pain associated with changes in weather have been described, a linkage to chemosensory hallucinations has heretofore not been reported. A 64-year-old white male with Parkinson's disease presents with 5 years of phantosmia of a smoky burnt wood which changed to onion-gas and then to a noxious skunk-onion excrement odor. Absent upon waking it increases over the day and persists for hours. When severe, there appears a phantom taste with the same qualities as the odor. It is exacerbated by factors that manipulate intranasal pressure, such as coughing. When eating or sniffing, the actual flavors replace the phantosmia. Since onset, he noted the intensity and frequency of the phantosmia forecasted the weather. Two to 3 h before a storm, the phantosmia intensifies from a level 0 to a 7-10, which persists through the entire thunderstorm. Twenty years prior, he reported the ability to forecast the weather, based on pain in a torn meniscus, which vanished after surgical repair. Extensive olfactory testing demonstrates underlying hyposmia. Possible mechanisms for such chemosensory-meteorological linkage includes: air pressure induced synesthesia, disinhibition of spontaneous olfactory discharge, exacerbation of ectopic discharge, affect mediated somatic sensory amplification, and misattribution error with expectation and recall bias. This is the first reported case of weather-induced exacerbation of phantosmia. Further investigation of the connection between chemosensory complaints and ambient weather is warranted.

  17. Six rules for accurate effective forecasting.

    PubMed

    Saffo, Paul

    2007-01-01

    The primary goal of forecasting is to identify the full range of possibilities facing a company, society, or the world at large. In this article, Saffo demythologizes the forecasting process to help executives become sophisticated and participative consumers of forecasts, rather than passive absorbers. He illustrates how to use forecasts to at once broaden understanding of possibilities and narrow the decision space within which one must exercise intuition. The events of 9/11, for example, were a much bigger surprise than they should have been. After all, airliners flown into monuments were the stuff of Tom Clancy novels in the 1990s, and everyone knew that terrorists had a very personal antipathy toward the World Trade Center. So why was 9/11 such a surprise? What can executives do to avoid being blind-sided by other such wild cards, be they radical shifts in markets or the seemingly sudden emergence of disruptive technologies? In describing what forecasters are trying to achieve, Saffo outlines six simple, commonsense rules that smart managers should observe as they embark on a voyage of discovery with professional forecasters. Map a cone of uncertainty, he advises, look for the S curve, embrace the things that don't fit, hold strong opinions weakly, look back twice as far as you look forward, and know when not to make a forecast.

  18. Urban Air Quality Forecasting in Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavlovic, Radenko; Menard, Sylvain; Cousineau, Sophie; Stroud, Craig; Moran, Michael

    2016-04-01

    Environment and Climate Change Canada has been providing air quality (AQ) forecasts for major Canadian urban centers since 2001. Over this period, the Canadian AQ Forecast Program has expanded and evolved. It currently uses the Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) modelling framework. At the heart of the RAQDPS is the GEM-MACH model, an on-line coupled meteorology‒chemistry model configured for a North American domain with 10 km horizontal grid spacing and 80 vertical levels. A statistical post-processing model (UMOS-AQ) is then applied to the RAQDPS hourly forecasts for locations with AQ monitors to reduce point forecast bias and error. These outputs provide the primary guidance from which operational meteorologists disseminate Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) forecasts to the public for major urban centres across Canada. During the 2015 summer Pan Am and Parapan Am Games, which were held in Ontario, Canada, an experimental version of the RAQDPS at 2.5 km horizontal grid spacing was run for a domain over the greater Toronto area. Currently, there is ongoing research to develop and assess AQ systems run at 1 km resolution. This presentation will show analyses of operational AQ forecast performance for several pollutants over the last few years in major Canadian urban centres such as Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Ottawa, and Calgary. Trends in observed pollution along with short- and long-term development plans for urban AQ forecasting will also be presented.

  19. Precision Fiber Optic Sensor Market Forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montgomery, Jeff D.; Glasco, Jon; Dixon, Frank W.

    1986-01-01

    The worldwide market for precision fiber optic sensors is forecasted, 1984-1994. The forecast is based upon o Analysis of fiber optic sensor and related component current technology, and a forecast of technology advancement o Review and projection of demand for precision sensing, and the penetration which fiber optics will make into this market The analysis and projections are based mainly on interviews conducted worldwide with research teams, government agencies, systems contractors, medical and industrial laboratories, component suppliers and others. The worldwide market for precision (interferometric) fiber optic sensing systems is forecasted to exceed $0.8 billion by 1994. The forecast is segmented by geographical region (Europe, Japan and North America) and by function; o Gyroscope o Sonar o Gradiometer/Magnetometer o Other - Chemical Composition - Atmospheric Acoustic - Temperature - Position - Pressure Requirements for components are reviewed. These include special fiber, emitters and detectors, modulators, couplers, switches, integrated optical circuits and integrated optoelectronics. The advancement in component performance is forecasted. The major driving forces creating fiber optic sensor markets are reviewed. These include fiber optic sensor technical and economic advantages, increasingly stringent operational requirements, and technology evolution. The leading fiber optic sensor and related component development programs are reviewed. Component sources are listed. Funding sources for sensor and component development are outlined, and trends forecasted.

  20. National Weather Service Forecast Reference Evapotranspiration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Osborne, H. D.; Palmer, C. K.; Krone-Davis, P.; Melton, F. S.; Hobbins, M.

    2013-12-01

    The National Weather Service (NWS), Weather Forecasting Offices (WFOs) are producing daily reference evapotranspiration (ETrc) forecasts or FRET across the Western Region and in other selected locations since 2009, using the Penman - Monteith Reference Evapotranspiration equation for a short canopy (12 cm grasses), adopted by the Environmental Water Resources Institute of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE-EWRI, 2004). The sensitivity of these daily calculations to fluctuations in temperatures, humidity, winds, and sky cover allows forecasters with knowledge of local terrain and weather patterns to better forecast in the ETrc inputs. The daily FRET product then evolved into a suite of products, including a weekly ETrc forecast for better water planning and a tabular point forecast for easy ingest into local water management-models. The ETrc forecast product suite allows water managers, the agricultural community, and the public to make more informed water-use decisions. These products permit operational planning, especially with the impending drought across much of the West. For example, the California Department of Water Resources not only ingests the FRET into their soil moisture models, but uses the FRET calculations when determining the reservoir releases in the Sacramento and American Rivers. We will also focus on the expansion of FRET verification, which compares the daily FRET to the observations of ETo from the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) across California's Central Valley for the 2012 water year.

  1. A Simulation Optimization Approach to Epidemic Forecasting

    PubMed Central

    Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Beckman, Richard J.; Shashaani, Sara; Nagaraj, Kalyani S.; Marathe, Madhav V.

    2013-01-01

    Reliable forecasts of influenza can aid in the control of both seasonal and pandemic outbreaks. We introduce a simulation optimization (SIMOP) approach for forecasting the influenza epidemic curve. This study represents the final step of a project aimed at using a combination of simulation, classification, statistical and optimization techniques to forecast the epidemic curve and infer underlying model parameters during an influenza outbreak. The SIMOP procedure combines an individual-based model and the Nelder-Mead simplex optimization method. The method is used to forecast epidemics simulated over synthetic social networks representing Montgomery County in Virginia, Miami, Seattle and surrounding metropolitan regions. The results are presented for the first four weeks. Depending on the synthetic network, the peak time could be predicted within a 95% CI as early as seven weeks before the actual peak. The peak infected and total infected were also accurately forecasted for Montgomery County in Virginia within the forecasting period. Forecasting of the epidemic curve for both seasonal and pandemic influenza outbreaks is a complex problem, however this is a preliminary step and the results suggest that more can be achieved in this area. PMID:23826222

  2. Weather forecasting based on hybrid neural model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saba, Tanzila; Rehman, Amjad; AlGhamdi, Jarallah S.

    2017-02-01

    Making deductions and expectations about climate has been a challenge all through mankind's history. Challenges with exact meteorological directions assist to foresee and handle problems well in time. Different strategies have been investigated using various machine learning techniques in reported forecasting systems. Current research investigates climate as a major challenge for machine information mining and deduction. Accordingly, this paper presents a hybrid neural model (MLP and RBF) to enhance the accuracy of weather forecasting. Proposed hybrid model ensure precise forecasting due to the specialty of climate anticipating frameworks. The study concentrates on the data representing Saudi Arabia weather forecasting. The main input features employed to train individual and hybrid neural networks that include average dew point, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean temperature, average relative moistness, precipitation, normal wind speed, high wind speed and average cloudiness. The output layer composed of two neurons to represent rainy and dry weathers. Moreover, trial and error approach is adopted to select an appropriate number of inputs to the hybrid neural network. Correlation coefficient, RMSE and scatter index are the standard yard sticks adopted for forecast accuracy measurement. On individual standing MLP forecasting results are better than RBF, however, the proposed simplified hybrid neural model comes out with better forecasting accuracy as compared to both individual networks. Additionally, results are better than reported in the state of art, using a simple neural structure that reduces training time and complexity.

  3. A method for probabilistic flash flood forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardy, Jill; Gourley, Jonathan J.; Kirstetter, Pierre-Emmanuel; Hong, Yang; Kong, Fanyou; Flamig, Zachary L.

    2016-10-01

    Flash flooding is one of the most costly and deadly natural hazards in the United States and across the globe. This study advances the use of high-resolution quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for flash flood forecasting. The QPFs are derived from a stormscale ensemble prediction system, and used within a distributed hydrological model framework to yield basin-specific, probabilistic flash flood forecasts (PFFFs). Before creating the PFFFs, it is important to characterize QPF uncertainty, particularly in terms of location which is the most problematic for hydrological use of QPFs. The SAL methodology (Wernli et al., 2008), which stands for structure, amplitude, and location, is used for this error quantification, with a focus on location. Finally, the PFFF methodology is proposed that produces probabilistic hydrological forecasts. The main advantages of this method are: (1) identifying specific basin scales that are forecast to be impacted by flash flooding; (2) yielding probabilistic information about the forecast hydrologic response that accounts for the locational uncertainties of the QPFs; (3) improving lead time by using stormscale NWP ensemble forecasts; and (4) not requiring multiple simulations, which are computationally demanding.

  4. Seasonal streamflow forecasting with the global hydrological forecasting system FEWS-World

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Van Beek, L. P.; Winsemius, H.; Bierkens, M. F.

    2011-12-01

    The year-to-year variability of river discharge brings about risks and opportunities in water resources management. Reliable hydrological forecasts and effective communication allow several sectors to make more informed management decisions. In many developing regions of the world, there are no efficient hydrological forecasting systems. For these regions, a global forecasting system which indicates increased probabilities of streamflow excesses or shortages over long lead-times can be of great value. FEWS-World is developed for this purpose. The system incorporates the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB and delivers streamflow forecasts on a global scale. This study investigates the skill and value of FEWS-World. Skill is defined as the ability of the system to forecast discharge extremes; and value is its usefulness for possible users and ultimately for affected populations. Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. The eventual goal is to transfer FEWS-World to operational forecasting mode, where the system will use operational seasonal forecasts from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The results will be disseminated on the internet to provide valuable information for users in data and model-poor regions of the world. The preliminary skill assessment of PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing flow extremes is carried out for a selection of 20 large rivers of the world. The model is run for a historical period, with a meteorological forcing data set based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, and the ERA-40 reanalysis of ECMWF. Model skill in reproducing monthly anomalies as well as floods and droughts is assessed by applying verification measures developed for deterministic meteorological forecasts. The results of this preliminary analysis shows that even where the simulated hydrographs are biased, higher skills can be attained in reproducing monthly

  5. Senior Administrators Should Have Administrative Contracts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Posner, Gary J.

    1987-01-01

    Recognizing that termination is viewed by the employee as the equivalent to capital punishment of a career, an administrative contract can reduce the emotional and financial entanglements that often result. Administrative contracts are described. (MLW)

  6. Accuracy analysis of TDRSS demand forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stern, Daniel C.; Levine, Allen J.; Pitt, Karl J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper reviews Space Network (SN) demand forecasting experience over the past 16 years and describes methods used in the forecasts. The paper focuses on the Single Access (SA) service, the most sought-after resource in the Space Network. Of the ten years of actual demand data available, only the last five years (1989 to 1993) were considered predictive due to the extensive impact of the Challenger accident of 1986. NASA's Space Network provides tracking and communications services to user spacecraft such as the Shuttle and the Hubble Space Telescope. Forecasting the customer requirements is essential to planning network resources and to establishing service commitments to future customers. The lead time to procure Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRS's) requires demand forecasts ten years in the future a planning horizon beyond the funding commitments for missions to be supported. The long range forecasts are shown to have had a bias toward underestimation in the 1991 -1992 period. The trend of underestimation can be expected to be replaced by overestimation for a number of years starting with 1998. At that time demand from new missions slated for launch will be larger than the demand from ongoing missions, making the potential for delay the dominant factor. If the new missions appear as scheduled, the forecasts are likely to be moderately underestimated. The SN commitment to meet the negotiated customer's requirements calls for conservatism in the forecasting. Modification of the forecasting procedure to account for a delay bias is, therefore, not advised. Fine tuning the mission model to more accurately reflect the current actual demand is recommended as it may marginally improve the first year forecasting.

  7. Tsunami Forecast: Connecting Science with Warning Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Titov, V. V.

    2014-12-01

    Tsunami modeling capability had been rapidly developing even before the watershed event of the 2004 Sumatra tsunami. During 1990-2000, the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, the tsunami scientific community took on the difficult task of developing the modeling capability that would provide accuracy needed for long-term tsunami forecast — tsunami hazard maps. After exhaustive field, laboratory and modeling efforts by the international scientific community, the modeling capability has been achieved with accuracy deemed sufficient for operational use. Several real-time model forecast tools started to be used at TWCs in the US and Japan. In parallel, the observational component of tsunami warning systems had been improving, including updated existing seismic and coastal sea-level stations array. New early detection and measurement system (DART) has been developed specifically for tsunami forecast applications. The 2004 Sumatra tsunami has triggered the efforts of intensive implementation of science results into operational tsunami warning capabilities. At present, several tsunami forecast systems, based on various modeling and detection capabilities, are operational. Since 2004, over 40 tsunamis, including the 2011 Japanese tsunami, provided real-time tests for the tsunami forecast system capabilities. Preliminary assessment of tsunami forecast performance will be presented based on the analysis of the U.S. operational tsunami inundation forecast. Assessing forecast performance is important to evaluate the needs for improvement and further research. Baseline of the tsunami forecast skills has now been established and will be presented based on the data from the tsunamis during the decade. Future improvements and future challenges will also be discussed.

  8. Seasonal hydrological ensemble forecasts over Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Stephens, Elisabeth; Cloke, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    This study investigates the limits of predictability in dynamical seasonal discharge forecasting, in both space and time, over Europe. Seasonal forecasts have an important socioeconomic value. Applications are numerous and cover hydropower management, spring flood prediction, low flow prediction for navigation and agricultural water demands. Additionally, the constant increase in NWP skill for longer lead times and the predicted increase in the intensity and frequency of hydro-meteorological extremes, have amplified the incentive to promote and further improve hydrological forecasts on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. In this study, seasonal hydrological forecasts (SEA), driven by the ECMWF's System 4 in hindcast mode, were analysed against an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) benchmark. The ESP was forced with an ensemble of resampled historical meteorological observations and started with perfect initial conditions. Both forecasts were produced by the LISFLOOD model, run on the pan-European scale with a spatial resolution of 5 by 5 km. The forecasts were issued monthly on a daily time step, from 1990 until the current time, up to a lead time of 7 months. The seasonal discharge forecasts were analysed against the ESP on a catchment scale in terms of their accuracy, skill and sharpness, using a diverse set of verification metrics (e.g. KGE, CRPSS and ROC). Additionally, a reverse-ESP was constructed by forcing the LISFLOOD model with a single perfect meteorological set of observations and initiated from an ensemble of resampled historical initial conditions. The comparison of the ESP with the reverse-ESP approach enabled the identification of the respective contribution of meteorological forcings and hydrologic initial conditions errors to seasonal discharge forecasting uncertainties in Europe. These results could help pinpoint target elements of the forecasting chain which, after being improved, could lead to substantial increase in discharge predictability

  9. 49 CFR 1540.117 - Threat assessments regarding aliens holding or applying for FAA certificates, ratings, or...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... the Assistant Administrator for Intelligence for TSA. Date of service means— (1) The date of personal...— (1) A threat to transportation or national security; (2) A threat of air piracy or terrorism; (3)...

  10. 49 CFR 1540.117 - Threat assessments regarding aliens holding or applying for FAA certificates, ratings, or...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... the Assistant Administrator for Intelligence for TSA. Date of service means— (1) The date of personal...— (1) A threat to transportation or national security; (2) A threat of air piracy or terrorism; (3)...

  11. 49 CFR 1540.115 - Threat assessments regarding citizens of the United States holding or applying for FAA...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... means the Assistant Administrator for Intelligence for TSA. Date of service means— (1) The date of... posing, or is known to pose— (1) A threat to transportation or national security; (2) A threat of...

  12. 49 CFR 1540.115 - Threat assessments regarding citizens of the United States holding or applying for FAA...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... means the Assistant Administrator for Intelligence for TSA. Date of service means— (1) The date of... posing, or is known to pose— (1) A threat to transportation or national security; (2) A threat of...

  13. How MAG4 Improves Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David; Khazanov, Igor; Barghouty, Nasser

    2013-01-01

    Dangerous space weather is driven by solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs). Forecasting flares and CMEs is the first step to forecasting either dangerous space weather or All Clear. MAG4 (Magnetogram Forecast), developed originally for NASA/SRAG (Space Radiation Analysis Group), is an automated program that analyzes magnetograms from the HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) instrument on NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory), and automatically converts the rate (or probability) of major flares (M- and X-class), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particle Events.

  14. Evaluating the Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Data On Convective Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kozlowski, Danielle; Zavodsky, Bradley

    2011-01-01

    The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service (NWS) offices. SPoRT provides real-time NASA products and capabilities to its partners to address specific operational forecast challenges. The mission of SPoRT is to transition observations and research capabilities into operations to help improve short-term weather forecasts on a regional scale. Two areas of focus are data assimilation and modeling, which can to help accomplish SPoRT's programmatic goals of transitioning NASA data to operational users. Forecasting convective weather is one challenge that faces operational forecasters. Current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models that operational forecasters use struggle to properly forecast location, timing, intensity and/or mode of convection. Given the proper atmospheric conditions, convection can lead to severe weather. SPoRT's partners in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have a mission to protect the life and property of American citizens. This mission has been tested as recently as this 2011 severe weather season, which has seen more than 300 fatalities and injuries and total damages exceeding $10 billion. In fact, during the three day period from 25-27 April, 1,265 storms reports (362 tornado reports) were collected making this three day period one of most active in American history. To address the forecast challenge of convective weather, SPoRT produces a real-time NWP model called the SPoRT Weather Research and Forecasting (SPoRT-WRF), which incorporates unique NASA data sets. One of the NASA assets used in this unique model configuration is retrieved profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS).The goal of this project is to determine the impact that these AIRS profiles have on the SPoRT-WRF forecasts by comparing to a current operational model and a control SPoRT-WRF model

  15. Forecast of natural aquifer discharge using a data-driven, statistical approach.

    PubMed

    Boggs, Kevin G; Van Kirk, Rob; Johnson, Gary S; Fairley, Jerry P

    2014-01-01

    In the Western United States, demand for water is often out of balance with limited water supplies. This has led to extensive water rights conflict and litigation. A tool that can reliably forecast natural aquifer discharge months ahead of peak water demand could help water practitioners and managers by providing advanced knowledge of potential water-right mitigation requirements. The timing and magnitude of natural aquifer discharge from the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer (ESPA) in southern Idaho is accurately forecast 4 months ahead of the peak water demand, which occurs annually in July. An ARIMA time-series model with exogenous predictors (ARIMAX model) was used to develop the forecast. The ARIMAX model fit to a set of training data was assessed using Akaike's information criterion to select the optimal model that forecasts aquifer discharge, given the previous year's discharge and values of the predictor variables. Model performance was assessed by application of the model to a validation subset of data. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency for model predictions made on the validation set was 0.57. The predictor variables used in our forecast represent the major recharge and discharge components of the ESPA water budget, including variables that reflect overall water supply and important aspects of water administration and management. Coefficients of variation on the regression coefficients for streamflow and irrigation diversions were all much less than 0.5, indicating that these variables are strong predictors. The model with the highest AIC weight included streamflow, two irrigation diversion variables, and storage.

  16. Weather forecast needs from the viewpoint of hydrology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Donald M.; Buchanan, Thomas J.

    1980-01-01

    Hydrologists now depend on directly observed data in their forecasting and only infrequently use meteorological forecasts. Case studies show how reliable meteorological forecasts could be beneficial in flood and drought situations. Hydrologists need meteorological forecasts that recognize spatial variability, that are unbiased, and that have a specified degree of uncertainty. (USGS)

  17. An Econometric Model for Forecasting Income and Employment in Hawaii.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chau, Laurence C.

    This report presents the methodology for short-run forecasting of personal income and employment in Hawaii. The econometric model developed in the study is used to make actual forecasts through 1973 of income and employment, with major components forecasted separately. Several sets of forecasts are made, under different assumptions on external…

  18. Epidemic forecasting is messier than weather forecasting: The role of human behavior and internet data streams in epidemic forecast

    DOE PAGES

    Moran, Kelly Renee; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Generous, Nicholas; ...

    2016-11-14

    Mathematical models, such as those that forecast the spread of epidemics or predict the weather, must overcome the challenges of integrating incomplete and inaccurate data in computer simulations, estimating the probability of multiple possible scenarios, incorporating changes in human behavior and/or the pathogen, and environmental factors. In the past 3 decades, the weather forecasting community has made significant advances in data collection, assimilating heterogeneous data steams into models and communicating the uncertainty of their predictions to the general public. Epidemic modelers are struggling with these same issues in forecasting the spread of emerging diseases, such as Zika virus infection andmore » Ebola virus disease. While weather models rely on physical systems, data from satellites, and weather stations, epidemic models rely on human interactions, multiple data sources such as clinical surveillance and Internet data, and environmental or biological factors that can change the pathogen dynamics. We describe some of similarities and differences between these 2 fields and how the epidemic modeling community is rising to the challenges posed by forecasting to help anticipate and guide the mitigation of epidemics. Here, we conclude that some of the fundamental differences between these 2 fields, such as human behavior, make disease forecasting more challenging than weather forecasting.« less

  19. Epidemic forecasting is messier than weather forecasting: The role of human behavior and internet data streams in epidemic forecast

    SciTech Connect

    Moran, Kelly Renee; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Generous, Nicholas; Hickmann, Kyle Scott; Osthus, Dave Allen; Priedhorsky, Reid; Hyman, James M.; Del Valle, Sara Yermimah

    2016-11-14

    Mathematical models, such as those that forecast the spread of epidemics or predict the weather, must overcome the challenges of integrating incomplete and inaccurate data in computer simulations, estimating the probability of multiple possible scenarios, incorporating changes in human behavior and/or the pathogen, and environmental factors. In the past 3 decades, the weather forecasting community has made significant advances in data collection, assimilating heterogeneous data steams into models and communicating the uncertainty of their predictions to the general public. Epidemic modelers are struggling with these same issues in forecasting the spread of emerging diseases, such as Zika virus infection and Ebola virus disease. While weather models rely on physical systems, data from satellites, and weather stations, epidemic models rely on human interactions, multiple data sources such as clinical surveillance and Internet data, and environmental or biological factors that can change the pathogen dynamics. We describe some of similarities and differences between these 2 fields and how the epidemic modeling community is rising to the challenges posed by forecasting to help anticipate and guide the mitigation of epidemics. Here, we conclude that some of the fundamental differences between these 2 fields, such as human behavior, make disease forecasting more challenging than weather forecasting.

  20. Hydrocarbon Rocket Technology Impact Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stuber, Eric; Prasadh, Nishant; Edwards, Stephen; Mavris, Dimitri N.

    2012-01-01

    Ever since the Apollo program ended, the development of launch propulsion systems in the US has fallen drastically, with only two new booster engine developments, the SSME and the RS-68, occurring in the past few decades.1 In recent years, however, there has been an increased interest in pursuing more effective launch propulsion technologies in the U.S., exemplified by the NASA Office of the Chief Technologist s inclusion of Launch Propulsion Systems as the first technological area in the Space Technology Roadmaps2. One area of particular interest to both government agencies and commercial entities has been the development of hydrocarbon engines; NASA and the Air Force Research Lab3 have expressed interest in the use of hydrocarbon fuels for their respective SLS Booster and Reusable Booster System concepts, and two major commercially-developed launch vehicles SpaceX s Falcon 9 and Orbital Sciences Antares feature engines that use RP-1 kerosene fuel. Compared to engines powered by liquid hydrogen, hydrocarbon-fueled engines have a greater propellant density (usually resulting in a lighter overall engine), produce greater propulsive force, possess easier fuel handling and loading, and for reusable vehicle concepts can provide a shorter turnaround time between launches. These benefits suggest that a hydrocarbon-fueled launch vehicle would allow for a cheap and frequent means of access to space.1 However, the time and money required for the development of a new engine still presents a major challenge. Long and costly design, development, testing and evaluation (DDT&E) programs underscore the importance of identifying critical technologies and prioritizing investment efforts. Trade studies must be performed on engine concepts examining the affordability, operability, and reliability of each concept, and quantifying the impacts of proposed technologies. These studies can be performed through use of the Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF) method. The Technology Impact